posted at 4:15 pm on March 17, 2011 by Allahpundit

His air force is already bombing the outskirts of the city, but not for much longer. The Security Council’s expected to vote at 6 p.m. ET and the French are telling people that airstrikes against Libyan air defenses — and maybe more — could begin immediately thereafter. At the same time, Qaddafi just delivered another insane stemwinder against the rebels on Libyan radio warning people in Benghazi that the army will be rolling into town tonight and that, if they don’t surrender, they’ll receive “no mercy.” Which means, unless someone blinks in the next few hours, that city will be a bona fide international war zone by the time America goes to bed tonight.

Ibrahim Dabbashi, the deputy Libyan UN ambassador, warned that, “in the coming hours we will see a real genocide if the international community does not act quickly.”

Dabbashi, who defected early on from the Gaddafi regime, said “about five” Arab states were ready to help police the no-fly zone if it was adopted…

Al Jazeera’s Bays in Tobruk said that people in the city said they were confident of winning against Gaddafi, but still needed international help.

“I can tell you that when you speak to the people here, they say they’re winning, they say they’re beating back Gaddafi. Then you ask them the question should the international community do more, and they say ‘Yes, we’re all going to die if they don’t help’. So very contradictory answers to those questions,” Bays reported on Thursday.

The regime’s threatening to retaliate by attacking air and sea traffic in the Mediterranean, which is unlikely in the near term with NATO overhead but more likely if Qaddafi brokers a deal to stay in power and inevitably returns to his old terrorist-y ways. (He’s worried enough about imminent airstrikes to have opted for radio over video today.) Meanwhile, I’m intrigued by those five Arab states who are allegedly ready to help “police” the NFZ. What does that mean, exactly? McClatchy reported earlier that only two were on board so momentum is building across the region to help make this happen, but in practical terms it means — what? Certainly use of local air bases; possibly also … Arab air forces joining NATO patrols?

As for which five states are involved, Tunisia and Egypt are obvious candidates since they’re adjacent, have revolutionary fever themselves, and want to maintain good relations with the west in the near term to keep the foreign aid flowing while they reorganize. The obvious risk is that if Qaddafi somehow remains in charge, then they have to live with him and wonder if he’s plotting revenge. That’s not a big concern for Egypt, which could crush him if need be, but little Tunisia may think twice. Assuming they’re both in, though, then who are the other three states? Given the current circumstances in the region, would the Saudis dare lend logistical support to dislodging an Arab dictator — even one they despise? Stay tuned.

Exit question: How’d the NATO powers get China and Russia to go along with a no-fly zone on the Security Council? Exit answer: In a way, they didn’t.

Update: According to one report, four of the five Arab countries involved are the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and … Saudi Arabia. No word on the fifth. I guess Tunisia and Egypt don’t want to make the mad dog mad.

Update: The vote’s over at the Security Council. 10-0, with Russia and China abstaining. Qaddafi’s response, via Al Jazeera’s live blog:

10:41pm Gaddafi did an interview with RTP, a Portuguese television station, this evening. In it, he said:

“The Security Council has not got the right to interfere in the internal affairs of any state. It would be a flagrant colonisation, without any justification. A serious and grave [inaudible]. This is craziness, madness, arrogance. If the world gets crazy with us, we will get crazy too…”

Asked what he means by ‘get crazy’, Gaddafi said:

“We will respond. We will make their lives hell, because they are making our lives hell. They will never have peace.”

Comments

Tomblvd on March 17, 2011 at 8:34 PM

I will repeat, there is no such thing as proof when dealing with human behavior.

Am I happy with his rationality? Of course not. Nor am I happy with rationality of Iran’s or the NorK’s leadership. And they have much more recent and frequent histories of sponsoring terrorism. Should we go to war with them?

Unless we have intel that he is going to attack or sponsor an attack against our interests we don’t need to be starting or getting involved in a war.

You know this is going to boost øbama’s polls. Doesn’t matter that he twiddled his thumbs, or what – he’ll get to pretend he’s riding in on a white horse, and the lumpen proletariat will cheer.jodetoad on March 17, 2011 at 8:14 PM

Good news can only be buried for so long. If this is over quickly – and I think it will be – it will eventually sink in that Palin was more than 3 weeks ahead of Obama. The damn MSM dam on the truth will eventually burst.

You need special forces on the ground to coordinate with the rebels. Otherwise you dont know who you’re shooting at.

the_nile on March 17, 2011 at 8:38 PM

I see. So that is a risk. And I realize sending in “just a few” ground forces is part of how we got into Vietnam, though I think it was “advisors” in that situation.

But don’t the brits already have people on the ground securing Daffy’s nuclear supplies? And since this whole global war started, we’ve needed small numbers of troops in a lot of places to hunt for Al Qaeda. So it seems there is a qualitative difference between sending in Special forces versus large numbers of regular ground troops.

And since people are pointing out how some of the terrorists we’re fighting have come out of Libya, seems that’s all the more reason to demonstrate to the civilian population that

A. we are not to be trifled with (via air power)
and
B. we are not their enemy

Maj. Ribas-Dominicci was one of the pilots who participated in the Libyan air raid as member of the 48th Tactical Fighter Wing. His F-111F was shot down in action over the disputed Gulf of Sidra off the Libyan coast.

Ribas-Dominicci and his weapons systems officer, Capt. Paul Lorence, were the only U.S. casualties of Operation El Dorado Canyon.

Aftermath

On December 25, 1988, after years of denying that they had the bodies of the two crew members, Gaddafi offered to release the body of Lorence to his family through Pope John Paul II. The body recovered and thought to be that of Lorence was actually that of Capt. Fernando L. Ribas-Domminici, which was identified by dental records and returned in 1989.

The Libyan government has denied that it holds Lorence’s remains and the U.S government does not believe that they are hiding anything. Major Fernando Luis Ribas-Dominicci’s remains are buried in his hometown of Utuado.

Well, I have not read the whole thread so maybe this has been mentioned already. I would think a few airstrikes tonight on these guys in the open would remind them how vulnerable they are and also make them think about the ‘Highway of Death” in Iraq. I know I would be thinking about that and would get the he!! out of dodge!

I watched that dogfight on TV and I didn’t know he was engaged in it. We knew it afterwards; heck I didn’t even knew there was a PRAF/ANG over in Libya. I wanna see another dogfight, or something, but I want Ghadafi’s head on a plate. That is MY American interest.

Sorry MJBrutus if that’s too rough for you. If not for wiping out a dictator then for a POW/MIA. That family is reliving this all over again.

The ZSU-23-4 in the picture is a bad SOB. Four 23mm cannons and they put out fire like you wouldn’t believe.
hawkdriver on March 17, 2011 at 4:47 PM

And millions of dollars later, we had the Sergeant York/DIVAD system that was even more better!
/s
Dr. ZhivBlago on March 17, 2011 at 8:58 PM

And a Reaper drone flying at 50K feet is well out of range for the ZSU-23-4.
However the ZSU-23-4 from 50K feet is well within range of the Reaper, pick the Poisson
A Hellfire missile (8 per Reaper)
A GBU-38 (JDAM) 500 lb (2 per Reaper)
A GBU-12 Paveway 11 laser-guided bomb (2 per Reaper)
or multiple combinations of the above.

The Reaper is NOT a UAV, it IS a U-CAV, a purpose built “Unmanned –Combat Aerial Vehicle”.
They didn’t exist in numbers prior to 2009, this is what we have been using in Af-Pak

Why all this fuss to help a dubious group of Muslim thugs, while two years ago we watched a secular uprising against a theocratic dictatorship crushed and no one in the world expressed the least bit of concern, much less spoke of intervention. Also, where does this lead to? Intervention in Yemen? Bahrain? Saudi Arabia? And just who is going to doing the choosing of the winners and losers in this game?

The ZSU-23-4 in the picture is a bad SOB. Four 23mm cannons and they put out fire like you wouldn’t believe.

hawkdriver on March 17, 2011 at 4:47 PM

And millions of dollars later, we had the Sergeant York/DIVAD system that was even more better!

/s

Dr. ZhivBlago on March 17, 2011 at 8:58 PM

I’m glad you put the sarc tag on there Doc. What a crime to name such a pooch after one of the greatest soliders of all time.

The ZSU23-4 is basically what we considered the main helicopter threat to be as far as common ADA against the Russians. And although the Black Hawk probably wouldn’t be used much as an observation platform, for training we still evaluate our pilots in a maneuver called Masking/Unmasking. We would only allow them to expose their aircraft for 10 second prior to remasking based primarily on the Gun Dish Radar of the 23-4 being able to acquire you and start putting 23mm rounds down-range in just a bit more than 9 seconds. 10 is a nice round number. But if the rounds ever hit your aircraft, that’d be it for you.

Hey hawkdriver, ready for round two/three? :D I sooo got ticked off when I was reading: “Oohh he should’ve not said THAT to hawkdriver, he’s gonna piss him off!”

What truck did you get the Mrs.? Are you gonna post a pic in your Space? Read up on the link I left for Tony 737; he hasn’t come back to let me know if he fought with him, but still it’s sad that we have a POW/MIA in Libya and his family doesn’t have the remains.

Does anyone know which knee is the proper one to go down on if you chance accidentally on a Mosque? I wouldn’t want to go down on the wrong one and expose the knee that Muslims traditionally wipe their arse with. Anyone got tips for pleasing Muslims?

Hey hawkdriver, ready for round two/three? :D I sooo got ticked off when I was reading: “Oohh he should’ve not said THAT to hawkdriver, he’s gonna piss him off!”

:-) Thanks, but mostly just reading now as I look at the internet for truck info.

What truck did you get the Mrs.?

I think we’re settled on a Ford Ranger Extended Cab with 4WD and front and back towing kits. We have two lots competing prices. (One has to get what we want from a different lot though) She’s still having me look at other small trucks on line for her, but the Ranger is the smallest truck we can get that’ll also pull a trailer with a compact tractor on it. Those little guys can tow 5800LBS. I was surprised. I will post a picture on FB with the Mrs after we pick it up.

Read up on the link I left for Tony 737; he hasn’t come back to let me know if he fought with him, but still it’s sad that we have a POW/MIA in Libya and his family doesn’t have the remains.

Again I say we aint got no damn money, so why are we paying for a military venture to support radical islamists who hate us in overthrowing an evil dicator? Are we living in a Fringe reality? I think so.

It does not include denial of a resource which we don’t own. If you’re thinking that our dependency on their oil is sufficient I would not concur. We have no right to it and if we hurt economically by not having it it does not constitute a legitimate basis for war.

Another war started by broke countries. This war is a European “oil war” nothing more. The United States is a leader in the world no more as far as I’m concerned. Moreover, The right approach to this civil war was to support the status quo (as should be the policy in all of these so called uprisings).

It does not include denial of a resource which we don’t own. If you’re thinking that our dependency on their oil is sufficient I would not concur. We have no right to it and if we hurt economically by not having it it does not constitute a legitimate basis for war.

MJBrutus on March 17, 2011 at 10:37 PM

We do not use their crude oil, it is almost entirley used by Italian refiners, majority of our oil comes from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Russia and others. maybe 10-15% of our oil is supplied out of the Arabian Gulf states. When the Italians cannot get the Libyan oil they have to go somewhere else, West African crudes most likely and bid for those barrels which in turn starts oil rising everywhere. I do not think we have a right to their oil by any means. I am just trying to point out the relationship to the world mkts and economies everywhere. I understand you do not want to commit troops to this, you are certainly entitled to your opinion as others are entitled to theirs. None of us have all the right answers or think the same way.

3:26am Khalid Kaim, the Libyan deputy foreign minister, said the government would “react positively to the UN resolution, and we will prove this willingness while guaranteeing protection to civilians”.

With Libyan government troops closing in on the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, virtually all American commentators appear to be united in the conviction that America or “the West” should intervene to save the Libyan rebels. But one month after the unrest in Libya began, we still know almost nothing about them. This fact seems not to trouble the commentators or even certain heads of state.

Last week, French President Nicolas Sarkozy famously recognized the rebels’ so-called National Council as the “legitimate representative of the Libyan people.” But a report in last weekend’s edition of the French daily Le Figaro notes that the full membership of the council is not even known. Reporting from Benghazi, Figaro correspondent Tanguy Berthemet writes, “Officially, it is supposed to have 31 members. But only seven names have been made public. …One does not know where its headquarters are or what its daily order of business is.”

More ominously, Berthemet’s report makes clear that the National Council is supported by local Islamists. Indeed, it might well contain some. Although Berthemet’s article cites “security concerns,” perhaps this is the reason that the names have not been released. In any case, Berthemet notes that the next step for the National Council is to put together “a veritable transitional government.” His report continues:

“It’s just a matter of time,” Mohammed Bosidra says, “It’s not a problem, and this government will be recognized by all countries, even in the West.” For Bosidra, a lawyer who is close to the Islamists and who was imprisoned for twenty years, radical Muslims are the only force capable of preventing the formation of a cabinet. But Abdul Hakim al-Hisasady, the voice of Libya’s Islamists, has given his go-ahead.

By “Abdul-Hakim al-Hisasady,” Berthemet appears to mean Abdul-Hakim al-Hasadi, who reportedly declared an “Islamic Emirate” in eastern Libya shortly after the start of the Libyan unrest (and who landed a notably chummy interview with the New York Times earlier this month).

Funding and fighting for a faction who’s core platform will be to bring about my own demise seems….Libtarded.

Having been on the business end of enforcing political decisions made by those who consider not having A/C hardship duty, I strongly oppose sending any assistance to a horde of American hating moozie primitives just because another horde of American hating moozie savages are killing them.

You arm chair heroes got the moozie fevah? Put down your grande mocha-capa-latte, buckle up your battle rattle and go get yourself some action. See how they treat you when it’s over.

Until someone can tell me what the end goal of our action is and who we’re trying to put in power I’m not not getting into the hurt business today to help those who will kill my wife and kids tomorrow.

On the heels of a UN No Fly Zone Resolution (which Sarah Palin called for on February 22) Libya has declared a ceasefire. How many thousands of lives would have been saved if Palin were POTUS instead of the grossly incompetent Obama?