Global Consumer Confidence Reaches Pre-Recession Levels

Global and U.S. Consumer Confidence at Highest Levels Since 2007

Consumer Confidence Remains Flat in China; Increases in Europe

April 30, 2014 12:01 AM Eastern Daylight Time

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Global consumer confidence returned to pre-recession levels with an
index score of 96 in the first quarter of 2014—the highest score since
Q1 2007, according to consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a
leading global provider of information and insights into what consumers
watch and buy. The global index—which recorded its lowest score of 77 in
Q1 2009—represents a two-point increase from Q4 2013 and a three-point
increase from a year ago (Q1 2013).

Across the world’s six biggest economies, five demonstrated consumer
confidence gains. Listed by the level of the increase, overall
confidence increased eight points in France (59), six points in the U.S.
(100), four points in Germany (99), three points in the U.K. (87), one
point in Japan (81) and remained flat in China (111). Consumer
confidence in Japan and Germany are at the highest levels since 2005.

Regional consumer confidence was highest in Asia-Pacific with an index
score of 106, a one-point increase from the previous quarter (Q4 2013)
and a three-point increase from a year ago (Q1 2013). North America
posted the largest quarterly increase of five index points to reach the
optimism baseline of 100—the highest level since 2007. The Middle
East/Africa region increased four index points to 94, and Europe
increased two index points to 75, compared to Q4 2013. Latin America
reported the only quarterly regional consumer confidence decline of one
index point to 93.

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending
Intentions, established in 2005, measures consumer confidence, major
concerns, and spending intentions among more than 30,000 respondents
with Internet access1 in 60 countries. Consumer confidence
levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism
and pessimism, respectively. In the latest round of the survey,
conducted February 17 – March 7, 2014, consumer confidence increased in
60 percent of markets measured by Nielsen—up from 43 percent the
previous quarter (Q4 2013).

Indonesia (124) reported the highest consumer confidence index for the
fifth consecutive quarter. Croatia and Italy each reported the lowest
consumer confidence index scores of 45, an increase of one point each
compared to the previous quarter. Egypt (87) and Switzerland (104)
reported the largest quarter-on-quarter index increases of 11 and 10
index points, respectively. Ukraine (56) reported the biggest quarterly
index decline of seven points.

Global Job Outlook Improves

Positive perceptions about local job prospects over the next 12 months
increased in the first quarter in every region except Latin America.
Almost half of global respondents (49%) believed the job market would be
good or excellent in the upcoming year, a quarterly increase of 2
percentage points, which brings the average to just below the
pre-recession outlook of 50 percent. The biggest quarterly increase in
job optimism came from North America, increasing 5 percentage points to
43 percent.

More than half (55%) of global respondents regarded their personal
finances positively, a level that has held steady for three consecutive
quarters. In Latin America and Asia-Pacific, respondents were most
secure in money matters, with 63 and 62 percent, respectively, believing
the state of their finances were good or excellent. European respondents
were least confident about finances, with 57 percent saying their
personal money situation was neither good nor bad.

Recessionary Sentiment Lingers

More than half of global respondents (55%) said they felt the effects of
recession in the first quarter, but the sentiment was improved compared
to 57 percent in the previous quarter. Regionally, recessionary
sentiment improved most in North America, down 7 percentage points to 61
percent, the lowest level since the start of the recession (2007).

More than two-thirds (68%) of markets measured by Nielsen reported an
improved recessionary sentiment compared to fourth-quarter 2013, with
the steepest improvements in the United Arab Emirates (-11 percentage
points), Switzerland (-11pp) and Peru (-10pp). Recessionary sentiment
also improved by 9 percentage points in Mexico, Vietnam, Romania and New
Zealand and by 8 points in the U.S. and the Netherlands.

Highlights from Around the World

In North America, U.S. savings and investing intentions picked up
pace in the first quarter, with 44 percent of respondents putting spare
cash into savings accounts, up from 39 percent in fourth-quarter 2013.
Fifteen percent invested in stocks and mutual funds, up from 11 percent
the previous quarter. More than one-third (36%) said they paid debts,
credit cards and loans, a quarterly increase of 5 percentage points.
U.S. discretionary spending intentions also increased across numerous
categories, including new technology and out-of-home entertainment,
which increased 4 and 3 percentage points, respectively, compared to
fourth-quarter 2013.

In Europe, consumer confidence increased in 21 of 32 markets in
the first quarter. Confidence in France (59) and Greece (53) increased
eight points each, and Portugal (51) and Spain (61) increased seven and
three points, respectively, compared to fourth-quarter 2013. Consumer
confidence in Germany remained robust with a score of 99, an increase of
four points from the previous quarter and the country’s highest index
score recorded (since Nielsen began measuring consumer confidence in
2005.)

Consumer confidence in Asia-Pacific increased in eight of 14
markets in the first quarter, was flat in three and declined in three.
The region’s biggest quarterly index increase was six points, in both
India (121) and Hong Kong (111). India’s index rise returns the score to
a fourth-quarter 2012 level after several quarters of declining
performance. Consumer confidence in the Philippines (116) and Thailand
(108), as well as Indonesia (124) and China (111), were among the
highest index scores of 60 countries measured.

Brazil led the Latin America region with an index of 106, which
declined four points from fourth-quarter 2013. The biggest regional
quarter-on-quarter consumer confidence index increases were in Mexico
(86) and Venezuela (78), which rose eight and four index points,
respectively. Conversely, consumer confidence in Argentina (71) declined
six index points, while Chile (98) and Peru (101), each fell one index
point, respectively, compared to fourth-quarter 2013. Colombia’s index
remained flat in the first quarter with a score of 93.

In the Middle East/Africa, the United Arab Emirates (114) and
Saudi Arabia (102) reported the highest consumer confidence scores in
the region, increasing four and one points, respectively, compared to
fourth-quarter 2013. Confidence in Egypt increased most regionally,
rising 11 points in the first quarter to 87. Pakistan increased two
index points to 99, and South Africa posted the only regional confidence
decline of four index points to 82.

Confidence Is Measured in Sub-Saharan Africa

New to the Nielsen consumer confidence measurement in the first quarter
is the addition of three sub-Saharan African markets—Nigeria, Kenya and
Ghana.2

Consumer confidence was highest in Nigeria in the first quarter with an
index score of 120. Kenya reported an optimistic, above-the-baseline
score of 110, and Ghana’s score was just below the baseline at 97. More
than half of respondents in Kenya (57%) and Nigeria (52%) were
optimistic about local job prospects in the next were 12 months,
compared with 42 percent in Ghana.

While 80 percent of Nigerian respondents were confident about their
personal finances, just under half (49%) believed that now was a good
time to spend. In Kenya, 69 percent of respondents believed money
matters were good or excellent, and 36 percent were confident in their
current spending capacity. In Ghana, 62 percent were optimistic about
their finances, and 34 percent of respondents were ready to spend.

About the Nielsen Global Survey

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions
was conducted Feb. 17 – March 7, 2014, and polled more than 30,000
online consumers in 60 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin
America, the Middle East, Africa and North America. The sample has
quotas based on age and sex for each country based on its Internet
users, is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers and has a
maximum margin of error of ±0.6%. This Nielsen survey is based only on
the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet penetration
rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of
60-percent Internet penetration or 10M online population for survey
inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from a
separate mixed methodology survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The
Nielsen Global Survey, which includes the Global Consumer Confidence
Index, was established in 2005.

About Nielsen

Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and
measurement company with leading market positions in marketing and
consumer information, television and other media measurement, online
intelligence and mobile measurement. Nielsen has a presence in
approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA, and
Diemen, the Netherlands. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

1 While an online survey methodology allows for tremendous
scale and global reach, it provides a perspective on the habits of
existing Internet users, not total populations. In developing markets
where online penetration has not reached majority potential, audiences
may be younger and more affluent than the general population of that
country. Additionally, survey responses are based on claimed behavior,
rather than actual metered data.

2 A mobile survey methodology was deployed to gauge sentiment
in these countries, which differs from the online methodology used to
report consumer confidence and spending intentions for the other 60
countries outlined in this report. As such, these three sub-Saharan
African markets are not included in the global or Middle East/Africa
averages.