The tales, legends and observations of a man who wakes up every morning expecting the Spanish Inquisition.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

RISKy Soccer

The World Cup started today, and you’ve likely read
(or had the opportunity to read) countless breakdowns of the teams from all
kinds of angles and perspectives. You may know the top players from each team,
which Groups will be the most difficult to escape, the different cities the
games are being held and even some of the off the field controversies
surrounding soccer’s biggest stage.

But today, I bring you the World Cup preview as you haven’t
seen it before. For today, I want to break down each team not based on talent
or coaching skill or home field/continent advantage. Anyone can do that kind of
pedestrian analysis. No, today I want to break down the countries in the World
Cup based on how easy or difficult it is to defend that country in the board
game RISK.

Now as you may be aware, RISK takes some liberties
in grouping countries into different territories and, in three cases, splits up
larger countries into different parts. For our purposes, when looking at
defending Russia, Australia and the United States, I looked at having to defend
all the parts of the country. Also, several countries are grouped into
territories. For example, Costa Rica and Honduras are in Central America, both
according to geography and in RISK, so they are grouped together.

After compiling a list of the teams and territories,
I looked at the number of borders in which they could be attacked from. While
this number is useful in helping determine how difficult it is to defend in
RISK, we also have to take into account the strategic values of the country. A territory
that has five borders in the middle of Asia may have less value than a territory
in Europe that has five borders. Obviously this is all subjective and your
rankings may vary (they’d be wrong if they differ from mine, but they would
vary.) I’ve also factored in the likelihood of a territory being attacked into
the rankings. A territory with lots of borders but little strategic value may
be easier to attack, but is less likely to conquered a territory with a few
borders but higher strategic value.

So here we go. Note: RISK Territories are in
parentheses

Most Difficult

32. Russia
(Ukraine, Afghanistan, Irkustsk, Kamchatka, Siberia, Ural and Yakutsk) – Russia
is comprised of seven different territories and frankly I lost count trying to
figure out how many places they can be attacked from. They border territories
in North America, Asia, Europe and Africa. It’s a massive country that spans
nine time zones ( a fact I learned and remembered from the Olympics.) If you’re
controlling all of Russia in a game of RISK, you’re either doing very well to
be able to control that much territory or you’ve spread yourself thin and will
probably be out of the game shortly.

31-27. Algeria,
Cameroon, Cote d’Ivorie, Ghana, Nigeria (North Africa) – North Africa has seven
different territories that border it. From Brazil to the west to Europe to the
north, North Africa has a difficult time staying in one players control for
long, especially if someone is able to maintain control over South America.

26. United
States (Eastern United States, Western United States, Alaska) – Were it not for
Alaska, the United States would be much lower on the list. Alaska borders with
Asia and anytime someone tries to control North America and get the five bonus
armies each round that comes with control, Alaska is vulnerable to being
attacked to prevent that from happening. With six territories able to attack
the U.S., the country scores low on this list.

25.Iran
(Middle East) – You mean the place where Europe, Asia and Africa all meet is a
difficult place to control? Shocking, I know. I ranked this below the United
States due primarily to the low odds of someone needing this to own an entire
continent. Asia is a vast place and as I mentioned earlier, controlling it is
difficult. I did consider moving it below the United States because it often
becomes what my friends and I call a “card territory” where we basically take
turns attacking it and then losing it so we can accumulate RISK cards to trade
in for armies in the future.

24-20Bosnia
and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Switzerland (Southern Europe) – With its
proximity to Africa and the bounty of armies that come with controlling Europe,
Southern Europe is prime real estate and difficult to defend. No one wants to
allow someone to control Europe if they can help it and someone seeking Africa
may attack into Southern Europe solely to prevent someone from ruling the area.

19.Brazil
(Brazil) – Brazil has fewer points of attack than Northern Europe, but it’s strategic
value places it lower on the list. Three of the four borders it has are with
territories in South America, making it a prime target early in the game to try
to get and hold the continent. It’s also vulnerable to attack from North
Africa.

18-16.France,
Portugal, Spain (Western Europe) – Like Brazil, Western Europe shares borders
primarily with continental neighbors and North Africa. It’s ranked as easier to
hold on to than Brazil simply because controlling Europe is more difficult than
controlling South America.

15-13.Belgium,
Germany, Netherlands (Northern Europe) – Despite having five borders, it’s
ranked easier to hold than Brazil and Western Europe because it’s surrounded by
continental neighbors in a difficult continent to control. Because of that, its
strategic importance is lower than the two territories previously ranked.

12.England
(Great Britain) – Were it not for Iceland (not in this year’s World Cup), Great
Britain would be much more valuable on the board. However, as with Northern
Europe, it’s surrounded by continental friends meaning it would either not be
strongly fought over during early parts of the game or behind a strong defense
later on by someone seeking to retain control of the continent.

11.South
Korea (Mongolia) – Why South Korea is a part of Mongolia, I’m not sure, and
even though it has more borders and thus more potential attackers than Great
Britain, it’s ranked as easier to defend due to the difficulty controlling
Asia. With no outside threats, only Asian territories, it’s safely tucked away.
It’s biggest threat would be from someone coming from the south after controlling
the Australia and Oceania continent.

10. Colombia (Venezuela) – Venezuela has three
territories able to attack it, but one of those is from a neighboring
continent, making it the first step out from North America should someone decide
to go that route. Bordered to the south by Brazil and Peru, Venezuela is also
tough to defend early in the game by those competing from control of the
region.

9-8.Costa
Rica and Honduras (Central America) - Another
territory bordering a continent, Central America is ripe for attack from
someone who gains control of South America early. Likewise, it’s one of the
three access points to North America and therefore a likely target if someone
is able to gain control of the continent in order to break up that power base.

7.Ecuador
(Peru) – Like Great Britain and Mongolia, previously, Ecuador is surrounded by
friendly continental neighbors. I considered ranking this one more difficult to
defend, but once someone controls it and the rest of the continent, it’s really
only going to change hands if the entire continent changes hands. If someone
does control South America, it’s likely they’ll have strong defensein both Brazil and Venezuela, making it more
difficult to conquer.

6.Mexico
(Mexico) – Another country that’s behind a fortification if already owned,
Mexico isn’t really worth going after unless you’ve secured a good portion of
the North American continent or have plans to do so imminently. There are only
three points of attack in to Mexico, but with a continent as vast as North
America, owning it is fruitless unless you own the rest.

5-3.Argentina
(Argentina, Chile, Uruguay) – There are only two ways to attack this territory,
both of which are continental neighbors. It’s at the southernmost end of South
America with no real strategic value to owning it once control of the continent
is settled. If you want Argentina, you’re likely making a play for South
America and if you’re successful, you’ll keep it for a while. If you’re not,
the previous owner will likely reclaim it.

2. Australia
(Western Australia, Eastern Australia) – Another nation that has two parts to
it, only unlike Russia and the United States, Australia is difficult to get to
and even when you do conquer it, you’ll need a turn to regroup to get back out
of there. It’s similar to Argentina in that it only has two ways to attack it
(for our purposes, we’re assuming Eastern and Western Australia don’t attack each
other since they’re playing together in the World Cup.). However, it gets the
#2 spot because there’s only one way to get to those attacking countries. Siam
provides a fantastic buffer /bottleneck. To get to Australia, you have to get
through Siam. That kind of defense is what makes Australia my favorite place to
own at the beginning of the game.

1. Japan (Japan) – When I first started this, I thought
Australia would take the top spot as easiest to defend. As I mentioned, you
have to go through Siam to get there. But Australia’s strategic value makes it
a popular place early in the game where the territories may change hands
several times before things get settled. Japan, on the other hand, is an island
unto itself. It only has two territories that can attack it, but there’s very
little reason to. There’s no real strategic value to owning Japan. It doesn’t
border another continent so it doesn’t get attacked that often and it has
limited places it can attack and those it can attack are both part of Asia,
which we’ve established is the most difficult continent to own.