For Your Consideration: Updating Oscar Contenders In The Eye of The Storm

For Your Consideration: Updating Oscar Contenders In The Eye of The Storm

In the past seven days or so, there have probably been more developments in the awards race than will be seen during any time period this year. Except for maybe the next seven days. With the Telluride Film Festival over, the Venice Film Festival entering its eighth day, and the Toronto Film Festival a day away from opening, a lot has gone down and roughly just as much is about to.

At this point, “The King’s Speech” seems like the biggest winner of the lot. Reviews have been across-the-board glowing, with most Oscar prognosticators agreeing this is very much up the Academy’s alley. Nominations for picture, director and actors Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham Carter all seem pretty likely.

Fox Searchlight trio “127 Hours,” “Black Swan” and “Never Let Me Go” all were generally well-received, though there have certainly been a few “are these Oscar movies” questions surrounding “Hours” and its intensity, “Swan”‘s dark subject matter, and “Never Let Me Go”‘s divisiveness (of the three, Romanek’s film definitely received the most mixed reviews). “Hours” is Searchlight’s probable best bet for now, but reactions for all three in Toronto will be telling as to what kind of awards legs each film has. Though “Hours” lead James Franco and “Swan” star Natalie Portman are both sitting pretty for acting nominations, unless the competition really heats up.

As for the other three, things are much more murky. Coppola’s “Somewhere” got its share of warm notices, but many suggested it was bit too slight for the kind of film that gets big Oscar nominations. Schnabel’s “Miral,” meanwhile, was quite tepidly received and it appears as though it’s not a “Diving Bell and the Butterfly.” And then there’s Peter Weir’s “The Way Back,” which popped up unexpectedly in Telluride (but is strangely not screening in Toronto) and has a release date of January 21, 2011, with no Academy qualification run currently plan. That could easily change, and mostly strong reviews suggest distributor Newmarket would have reason to do. But, currently nobody seems to know for sure.

So here’s an updated version of the contender list offered a few weeks back. This column will take a break next week during Toronto, and then will come back will the year’s first full set of Oscar predictions.