Silva: Dynasty Rookie Rankings

Buccaneers Fantasy Preview

Evan Silva breaks down the 2017 Buccaneers for his Team Fantasy Preview series

Quarterbacks

Sheer upside is what I foremost seek in a Dynasty rookie quarterback, because opportunity is limited. There are only 32 starters in the league, and teams don't use more than one at once. (That isn't the case for running backs, receivers, and to a lesser extent tight ends.) This is also fantasy's most replaceable week-to-week position. I either want someone who gives me a high-scoring ceiling every week, or I'm playing game-by-game matchups. In-place "weapons" are factored in to some extent, though truly good quarterbacks tend to elevate players around them.

Manziel is teaming with former Redskins OC Kyle Shanahan, who coached Robert Griffin III to a top-five fantasy season as a rookie. Shanahan has worked with a dual-threat quarterback before. The Browns need weapons after Josh Gordon's suspension, but Manziel's aggressive passing approach and rushing potential give him the highest fantasy quarterback ceiling in this class.

2. Blake Bortles, No. 3, Jaguars.

Bortles looked like Andrew Luck on college tape at times. At others, he resembled Jake Locker. He's even drawn comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger. I love what the Jaguars did at receiver, pairing Allen Robinson with Marqise Lee. Bortles won't help fantasy teams before 2015, but offers a reasonable amount of upside as the Jags’ franchise quarterback with an ascending supporting cast.

3. Teddy Bridgewater, No. 32, Vikings.

Although Bridgewater is a limited talent with a smallish frame and hands, his composure in the pocket and short to intermediate accuracy give him a chance to become an early-career starter for the QB-desperate Vikings. Teddy's fantasy outlook is curbed by modest rushing potential, but he could become an Alex Smith or Andy Dalton type under quarterback-friendly OC Norv Turner.

Thomas is the wild card in this class. Quarterbacks with 55.5 college completion rates don't pan out often in the pros, but Bruce Arians is one of the NFL's premier offensive minds and expressed confidence after the draft that Thomas' deficient accuracy can be fixed by improved footwork. He's a boom-or-bust prospect, but I am intrigued by the ceiling. Thomas has Cam Newton tools. Arizona has Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd at wideout, and Carson Palmer is nearing age 35.

5. Derek Carr, No. 36, Raiders.

Carr isn't slated to play much in 2014, but he's positioned behind a starter entering his age-33 season (Matt Schaub) and could ascend fairly quickly. Carr has outstanding arm talent, and is a plus athlete. He had a college tendency to tank under duress -- a huge red flag -- and doesn't have a great supporting cast in Oakland. Carr lacks Bridgewater's floor and Thomas' ceiling.

6. Tom Savage, No. 135, Texans.

A big-armed, well-built, and well-traveled college journeyman, Savage can rip downfield throws and is long on opportunity behind only Ryan Fitzpatrick in Houston. I suspect the odds are against Savage becoming the Texans' franchise quarterback, but I wouldn't rule it out. The Texans are loaded at wide receiver and tight end. Bill O'Brien also has an impressive history of QB tutoring.

Smith was not drafted, but meets the upside criteria. Essentially a poor man's Manziel, Smith is a playmaking athlete with a decent arm. In Tampa Bay, Smith is stationed behind only 35-year-old Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, a holdover from the old Bucs front office. I'm also very intrigued by new GM Jason Licht's offseason. He's constructing a basketball team at wideout and tight end.

8. Jimmy Garoppolo, No. 62, Patriots.

Second-round reach. I don't think Garoppolo will become an NFL starter.

Running backs have short shelf lives, so I factor expected immediate impact into these rankings just as much -- and in some cases more -- than long-term bankable talent. Regardless of scoring format, I also want running backs who are either already good at catching passes, or have shown some potential to become assets in the passing game. And I typically shy away from running backs I project as situational role players or "scatbacks." I am targeting potential workhorses.

I wasn't thrilled when I watched Sankey on college tape. He reminded me of Vick Ballard with underwhelming burst and tackle-breaking ability. The fact that Sankey was the first running back drafted says much more about this running back class than the devaluation of the position. But Sankey can block and catch, and his measurables and opportunity can't be ignored. My hope is an NFL conditioning program and position coach can get Sankey to maximize his physical tools. As Tennessee is very likely to play run-first offense in what will likely prove Jake Locker's final season with the team, Sankey has a chance to be a 17-22 touch-per-game runner as a rookie.

2. Carlos Hyde, No. 57, 49ers.

Marcus Lattimore is struggling in his recovery from two major knee injuries, and the 49ers clearly envision Kendall Hunter as a change-of-pace back. Both Hunter and 31-year-old starter Frank Gore are entering contract years. Hyde must improve in pass protection, but offers a feature back skill set on a run-first team. He's 230 pounds with light feet and an ability to beat first contact.

3. Terrance West, No. 94, Browns.

West is a powerful zone runner with explosive open-field jump-cut ability, experience in the passing game, and a workhorse build. I'm certain he reminded Kyle Shanahan of Alfred Morris, and has superior straight-line speed. Only Ben Tate is ahead of West on Cleveland's depth chart. Tate has lacked durability throughout his NFL career, and there is no guaranteed money in Tate's contract for 2015. With a rookie QB and little at wideout, the Browns will run the ball with volume.

4. Devonta Freeman, No. 103, Falcons.

I love this fit. A rock-solid pass protector and sure-handed receiver, Freeman is a Shane Vereen-type talent entering pass-first OC Dirk Koetter's offense. Both coach Mike Smith and GM Thomas Dimitroff have talked up Freeman as a potential future "lead back" in Atlanta. Steven Jackson is showing every symptom of late-career breakdown in the book, while the Falcons turned the page on Jacquizz Rodgers as a lead runner some time ago. Rodgers is also entering a contract year.

Williams lacks lateral movement and is a zero as a receiver, but Tom Coughlin may see him as a Michael Turner-type workhorse. He certainly has the size and north-south downhill running mentality for it, and gobbles up blocked yards. Williams' "situation" is also better than it looks.

6. Jeremy Hill, No. 55, Bengals.

Hill is billed as a two-down thumper, but ran with inconsistent physicality at LSU and is short on measurables. He does offer TD upside as the short-yardage complement to Giovani Bernard.

7. Tre Mason, No. 75, Auburn.

Mason's running ability reminds of Ray Rice, but he is deficient in the passing game at this point in time, and is joining a deep Rams running back depth chart. It's possible St. Louis only views Mason as a change-up runner. He'll need to fend off Benny Cunningham to back up Zac Stacy.

8. Jerick McKinnon, No. 96, Vikings.

McKinnon was a college quarterback-slash-running back and will have to be taught to pass protect from scratch, but he is an incredibly explosive athlete with adequate tailback size. 29 years old and owed a $12.75 million base salary in 2015, Adrian Peterson isn't going to last forever.

From Georgia to Alabama State, Crowell's tape was the most impressive in this running back class, and he is only 21 years old. You could argue Crowell's natural running ability is superior to third-round pick Terrance West's. He also has experience in pass protection. Whether Crowell's head is on straight will determine his Cleveland fate. He was a UDFA due to off-field concerns.

10. Ka'Deem Carey, No. 117, Bears.

Carey looked like an NFL starter to me on college tape, but was exposed as a limited athlete at the Combine. I'm still intrigued by his fit in Chicago. Carey is a plus in the passing game -- critical under Marc Trestman -- and the Bears are thin at running back behind 28-year-old Matt Forte.

11. James White, No. 130, Patriots.

White is an intelligent, ball-secure runner who can pass protect and get what's blocked. He is a somewhat low-ceiling prospect, but is entering a great offense where far worse talents have become fantasy contributors. Both Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley are entering contract years.

12. Storm Johnson, No. 222, Jaguars.

Johnson is a one-cut-and-go back with plus size and straight-line speed. He's a fit for the Jaguars' zone-running scheme. My expectation is Jacksonville will let Denard Robinson and Jordan Todman battle for change-of-pace duties, with Johnson stationed directly behind Toby Gerhart.

I like fantasy receivers who score touchdowns. I prefer them big and fast. The NFL is increasingly a man-coverage league, where pass catchers constantly have to deal with defensive backs in their "hip pocket." I want wideouts who win 50:50 balls and in the red zone. I downgrade receivers I believe are one-trick-pony deep threats, and project as complementary pieces. I like volume. I also bank on forward-looking talent at receiver more than situation and perceived opportunity.

Evans is the textbook NFL touchdown scorer with fire hoses for arms, a massive catch radius, and a 231-pound body to ward off defensive backs. A star prep basketball player, Evans didn't begin playing football until his senior year in high school. He dominated the SEC as a 20-year-old redshirt sophomore. (Think about that.) The ceiling on this player is extraordinarily high. Even in a probable run-first offense, I expect Evans to annually flirt with double-digit scores and become Tampa's No. 1 wideout sooner rather than later. Vincent Jackson is 31 1/2 with no guaranteed money left in his deal. Overlook the less-than-ideal quarterback situation and draft Evans at 1.01.

2. Sammy Watkins, No. 4, Bills.

Watkins was the better college receiver. I expect Evans to be the better pro. That isn't to diminish Watkins, as I'm confident he's capable of handling a lot of volume, and he will instantly be the focal point of Buffalo's pass game. Watkins can high-point in traffic, though not remotely as well as Evans. Like Evans, he's facing run-first-offense and quarterback concerns. Unlike Evans (6-foot-5, 35-inch arms), Watkins is 6-foot-1 with 32-inch arms. I liken Watkins to a cross between Torrey Smith and Pierre Garcon, and it would not shock me if he outscored Evans in PPR leagues this season. But I think the odds favor Evans in the long run.

3. Jordan Matthews, No. 42, Eagles.

Matthews is a Michael Crabtree-type receiver. Chip Kelly seems to agree, pegging Matthews for Philadelphia's slot role in 2014. The Eagles will get Matthews involved in a high-octane, efficient, and fast-paced offense right away, and it's conceivable that he could bypass lesser talent Riley Cooper for targets in year one. Jeremy Maclin only has a one-year contract. Matthews' landing spot is really tough to ignore. He could be the go-to guy in Kelly's offense by his second year.

4. Brandin Cooks, No. 20, Saints.

The Saints wanted this player badly, trading up to secure Cooks in front of Philadelphia. I think they will feature him right away, with something like 65-70 year-one catches and 20-25 carries. Cooks lacks size to be an impact red-zone receiver, but should be an immediate PPR starter. I expect Cooks to be fed the football while Kenny Stills continues to focus on clear-out routes.

5. Cody Latimer, No. 56, Broncos.

Latimer offers a prototypical size-speed package, with excellent film. He has perhaps the surest hands of any receiver in this class, dropping one pass among 119 targets last season. Latimer is a big, physical possession receiver with buildup jets and the potential to evolve into a lower-end No. 1 wideout. The concerns are Latimer's early-career fantasy usefulness in a crowded pass-catching corps, and 38-year-old Peyton Manning's longevity. In a few seasons, it's pretty unlikely Denver's offense will be nearly as efficient and productive as it is now. And there will still be a lot of mouths to feed. All that said, I see Latimer as a mid-first-round Dynasty rookie pick.

6. Allen Robinson, No. 61, Jaguars.

Robinson offers a higher ceiling than Cooks, though his first season or two could be slow. The wideout corps is muddy with Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders back, and Marqise Lee drafted ahead of Robinson. There is also a chance Justin Blackmon returns. I absolutely love Robinson from a skill and projection standpoint, however. There is some Demaryius Thomas to his game. When the dust settles, I think Robinson will emerge from the pack as Jacksonville's No. 1 receiver.

7. Davante Adams, No. 53, Packers.

Adams profiles eerily similarly to Hakeem Nicks, albeit with better versatility. He is a perfect fit in Green Bay's offense. The Packers have big-name wideouts in place, but both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are entering contract years, and Jarrett Boykin is just above replacement level. (There's also nothing at tight end.) I would not be surprised if Adams overtook Boykin as Green Bay's No. 3 pass-game option by midseason 2014. He could be Aaron Rodgers' No. 2 by 2015.

8. Kelvin Benjamin, No. 28, Panthers.

Benjamin has bust potential. He was too heavy during the pre-draft phase, something NFL teams expressed to him. He's old for a rookie. He isn't a separation receiver, although I'm less worried about that. (Alshon Jeffery wasn't, either.) Benjamin drops too many passes. He only had a 32 1/2-inch vertical at the Combine. The vertical is a good measurement of sheer athleticism. He is stiff and doesn't move well in small spaces. But Benjamin is a massive receiving target who can high-point the ball in traffic, and he's also the only wideout in this class being immediately thrust into a clear-cut, featured, No. 1 receiver role. Benjamin is boom-or-bust with a high TD ceiling.

9. Odell Beckham, No. 12, Giants.

A cross between Antonio Brown and Greg Jennings -- albeit with inferior quarterback play -- "ODB" profiles as a better real-life than fantasy wide receiver, who also offers home-run potential on punt returns. I think Beckham will annually struggle to become more than a 5-6 touchdown scorer, but he should eventually flirt with or exceed 1,000 yards. His ceiling is probably a WR2.

10. Marqise Lee, No. 39, Jaguars.

Lee is a tough projection. He isn't the lid lifter he was billed to be as a freshman, and lacks size to dominate the short and intermediate sections. He also has a medical flag after falling out of round one due to a knee injury. As mentioned previously under Allen Robinson, the Jags' receiver corps is suddenly fairly crowded. In my personal Dynasty drafts, I'll let someone else deal with Lee.

11. Jarvis Landry, No. 63, Dolphins.

Although Landry is speed deficient, I think the Hines Ward comparisons are reasonable based on his college play. It isn't out of the question that he becomes Ryan Tannehill's most trusted receiver at some point in 2014. The coaches are down on Mike Wallace, and Brian Hartline is just a guy.

12. Donte Moncrief, No. 90, Colts.

Moncrief is like Benjamin, albeit without the immediate opportunity. He'll probably spend his rookie year as a healthy game-day scratch behind T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, LaVon Brazill, and Da'Rick Rogers. It may be a good thing because Moncrief needs technical work. An absolute freak of nature athlete who's only 20 years old, Moncrief has legit No. 1 receiver traits, but turned in poor 2013 game tape. As Wayne is going on 36 and Nicks has a one-year deal, Moncrief's ceiling is the "X" to Hilton's "Z" by 2015. Moncrief carries plenty of bust risk, however.

13. Martavis Bryant, No. 118, Steelers.

I fear Bryant is a one-trick-pony deep threat with suspect hands, but his size-speed combination certainly makes him an intriguing addition to Pittsburgh's previously diminutive receiver corps. It also piqued my interest that the Steelers have openly discussed starting Bryant as a rookie.

14. Jeff Janis, No. 236, Packers.

Janis has drawn some Jordy Nelson comparisons, and has superior measurables to Green Bay's current No. 1 wideout. Janis' game is a work in progress, but the Packers know how to draft wide receivers and arguably have the best quarterback in the league. There is certainly upside here.

15. T.J. Jones, No. 189, Lions.

Jones is not big or fast, but has reliable possession receiver qualities and is entering what figures to be a potent offense with plenty of passing volume. He'll be interesting if he wins the slot role.

16. Devin Street, No. 146, Cowboys.

Street lacks deep speed and isn't physical enough to dominate in the short or intermediate pass games. I don't like Street's profile, but new OC Scott Linehan is the league's pass-happiest mind, creating opportunity. Dallas also doesn't seem entirely sold on sophomore Terrance Williams as the long-term No. 2 to Dez Bryant's No. 1. Street is worth a Dynasty flier to see what happens.

17. Shaq Evans, No. 115, Jets.

Evans has adequate speed and adequate size, and the Jets have an opening at No. 2 receiver across from Eric Decker. Evans is a sure-handed West Coast target without much of a ceiling.

18. Quincy Enunwa, No. 209, Jets.

Enunwa is a superior physical specimen to Evans, and was a dominant red-zone weapon in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, he was drafted far later -- decreasing his opportunity -- and has poor hands.

19. Paul Richardson, No. 45, Seahawks.

Richardson is a vertical stretcher entering a run-dominated offense where wideouts are viewed as complementary role players. I think Richardson will help Seattle, but not so much fantasy teams.

20. Bruce Ellington, No. 106, 49ers.

Ellington is a dynamic slot receiver prospect with a bleak fantasy outlook.

21. Josh Huff, No. 86, Eagles.

Third-round reach Huff will probably focus on special teams in Philadelphia.

My criteria for tight ends are similar to wide receivers. I want big tight ends who can run. I do weigh situation into tight end Dynasty rookie outlooks more so than for wideouts, however, because some NFL coaches use tight ends in the passing game more than others.

1. Eric Ebron, No. 10, Lions.

New Lions OC Joe Lombardi hails from New Orleans, and has pledged to use Ebron in similar ways to Jimmy Graham. Rookie tight ends generally struggle for immediate fantasy impact -- and I expect 21-year-old Ebron will have his share of 2014 ups and downs -- but there is top-five TE1 upside here. Ebron has speed to stretch the vertical seam and projects as a dynamic weapon.

2. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, No. 38, Buccaneers.

Like new teammate Mike Evans, Seferian-Jenkins is a (literal) basketball player who spent time on the Washington Huskies' hoops squad early in college. "ASJ" played through a foot injury in 2013, and still took home the Mackey Award as college football's top tight end. Healthy now, Seferian-Jenkins is a red-zone dominator with a sky-high ceiling. He's a day-one starter in Tampa.

3. Jace Amaro, No. 49, Jets.

The Jets are primarily a running team, but Amaro has lots of opportunity with Eric Decker as New York's lone established receiving threat. Amaro lacks the forward-thinking ceiling of Ebron and Seferian-Jenkins, but is a fair bet to lead all rookie tight ends in targets, receptions, and yards.

4. C.J. Fiedorowicz, No. 65, Texans.

I'm a fan of Ryan Griffin, but he was drafted under a previous coaching staff. Garrett Graham is just a guy. Underutilized in Iowa's mundane passing attack, Fiedorowicz profiles as a better pro than college player. And new coach Bill O'Brien has an extensive history with multi-tight end sets.

5. A.C. Leonard, UDFA, Vikings.

Leonard is the tight end version of Isaiah Crowell, entering a fantasy-friendly situation under new OC Norv Turner. The former four-star Florida recruit fell out of the draft due to off-the-field issues.

6. Richard Rodgers, No. 98, Packers.

I'm not thrilled with Rodgers' skills, but opportunity is clearly on his side.

7. Colt Lyerla, UDFA, unsigned.

Still unsigned, Oregon product Lyerla is a great athlete with a ten-cent head.

8. Troy Niklas, No. 52, Cardinals.

Niklas was a high pick, but tight ends mostly block in Bruce Arians' offense.

9. Crockett Gillmore, No. 99, Ravens.

Colorado State's Gillmore is a good blocker with a low pass-catching ceiling.

10. Arthur Lynch, No. 155, Dolphins.

Lynch was a fine college player who's unlikely to ever make a fantasy impact.

I value wide receivers more than any position in Dynasty, because I think you should build around them. They have longer shelf lives and can be weekly plug-and-play starters for a decade or even longer when they hit. The same can't be said for running backs, and this particular quarterback class doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Tight ends tend to be dependent on offensive scheme.