sunset from behind the wire

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

North Korea’s missile program is stimulating a weapons race in Northeast Asia. North Korea has the ability to start a weapons race, a war or other unpleasantness, but their finish always rests with the Allies.

In Japan

Japanese Defense Minister Inada told a Diet committee on 15 May that the government will try to improve its ability to intercept ballistic missiles. Inada said the government is researching a variety of options, including “Aegis Ashore”.

She commented on a proposal by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party that the government consider granting the Self-Defense Forces permission to attack enemy bases. She said the government needs to take the proposal seriously and to bolster deterrence through the Japan-US Alliance.

Last November, Inada visited Guam for a demonstration of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system. The government favors the Aegis Ashore system.

What Really Happened?

Japanese press reported on 12 May that on 18 April North Korea notified China, “We will conduct a nuclear test on 20 April.”

According to the press account, China informed the United States that it had received the notification from Pyongyang. China also warned North Korea that it would “close the China–North Korea border for a long time if it went through with the nuclear test.”

“China confirmed that it had requested North Korea to refrain from conducting a nuclear test. The Chinese also told us that they informed North Korea that China would be taking sanctions action on their own if they did conduct further nuclear tests,” US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on 27 April.

China told North Korea that the embargo would be complete, by land and by sea. On the night of 19 April, Chinese border police maintained the highest-level alert along the North Korean border in anticipation of a North Korean nuclear test. It never came.

This is the first open source report that accounts for North Korean behavior in the third week of April. This also is the first time China has exerted such pressure on North Korea and the first time North Korea has changed its behavior because of a non-military threat. China is the only country that can impose a complete embargo on North Korea, which would be unprecedented. China can wreck the North Korean economy.

The Chinese warning explains the volleyball game at the nuclear test site, which was staged probably for the benefit of Chinese imagery systems. It also explains the shrillness of the 3 May North Korean media rant against China.

As for China’s persistent denial that it has the ability to influence North Korean behavior, that denial has been exposed as false. The Chinese found a way without using military force.

This is a text book case of a successful warning. The nuclear test did not occur because national decision makers received early and sufficient warnings that were regularly updated in time for them to take action to deter the nuclear test. Seldom do analysts obtain this kind of confirmation that warning worked.

The Russia Factor

In a press conference at the conclusion of China’s One Belt, One Road summit in Beijing, Russian

President Putin said, "I want to confirm, we are against expansion of the nuclear powers club, including the Korean Peninsula, including North Korea."

He also said, "What we have been observing lately in the world, in particular, outrageous violation of international law and invasion of the territory of foreign states, regime changes and so on, triggers this arms race," Putin said. While nuclear or missile tests are 'unacceptable', the international community should return to a dialogue with North Korea and 'stop intimidating' it."

I repeated Putin’s comments in full because elite, smug, incompetent US news outlets only reported the last line about dialogue and intimidation.

Brief Conclusions

China has its hand on the North Korean throttle and everyone knows it. The only talks that matter are talks between China and North Korea. The US will defend its allies in Japan and South Korea, but any change needs to come from China and the dog on its leash.

If China wants to further militarize Japan and South Korea, it can. Thus it's protests about THAAD deployment and a mobilizing Japan are hollow. Removing the threat will calm things down and that's 100% a China problem.

It's inherently dangerous and in a nanny state, protecting you is job one for the government. Therefore the Australians have enacted the LOG-YOUR-JOG ordinance. In addition to logging on to file a 'jog plan', you're expected to wear a helmet while jogging. When I heard about this, I felt that it would be likely that the City and County of San Francisco would do the same thing (exempting illegal aliens/wetbacks).

Yes of course, it's a hoax. But it underscores how absurd people are and how likely they are to believe even this sort of patently tom-foolery as credible and even likely to be the case. This is how far we've sunk. In California, things like this are announced all the time and they're not hoaxes. In California there is usually a hefty tax involved. In this case it would be a "jogging tax"...which hasn't been enacted, but who knows. This may give California or its counties an idea.

Housekeeping

As of January 1, 2017 this blog began to receive anonymous posts. I try not to delete them, but if you want to be taken seriously here, you need to identify yourself, if only by some sort of cryptonym.

Welcome to Virtual Mirage

"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.

"Oh, you can't help that," said the cat. "We're all mad here. I'm mad, you're mad."

"How do you know I'm mad," asked Alice?

"You must be," said the cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."

Good Morning

Virtual Mirage - What's on the other side of the mirror? Ask Alice how deep the rabbit hole really goes.

This blog is an extension of MY JOURNEY because sometimes my journey needs more explanation, and sometimes there is more to be said than can be expressed on one ordinary blog.

Sometimes it's politics (very serious), sometimes I address the human condition with a dose of humor, and other times it may seem as if the track is headed in a unique direction. I can be a complicated guy at times.

There are a few things you'll find I consider:

* Absence of proof is not proof of absence.

* Sometimes the questions are complex but the answers are simple.

* Love is the only condition where the happiness of another person is essential to your own.

* Steers do not sign treaties with meat packers. (think on that)

* Taxes are NEVER levied for the benefit of the taxed.

* The purpose of fighting is to win. There is no victory possible in defense.

WHITE POWDER (Novel)

There is something intoxicating about a secret.

THE OLD WHORE (NOVEL)

In the peculiar culture of the Central Intelligence Agency, "old whores" are people who will do whatever it takes to get the job done, irrespective of the cost.

EXILES FROM EDEN (NOVEL)

Sparks fly as two star-crossed lovers meet. He runs toward trouble as she yearns for something missing. And it ends in a flight from and toward justice.

About Me

Today, I balance work and play as much as anyone can. All things remaining equal, play is more important. Life is short - it's important to make every day count for something, if only to yourself.
I'm a former tinker/tailor/soldier/sailor who has now decided that maybe it really wasn't all done for nothing.

This site contains copyrighted material, the use of which may or may not have been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such material is made available for educational purposes, and as such this constitutes 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Act. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.