Videos

How undefined is 2018’s presidential election result?

We built an electoral undefinition index and verified that the 2018 election is, thus far, the most uncertain since 1989.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

• We built an electoral undefinition index and verified that the current distribution of voting intentions makes the 2018 election, thus far, the most uncertain since the end of the military government.

• Most of the uncertainty about the 2018 election comes from the number of voters who have not chosen a candidate (blank, null and undecided), but the dispersion of voting intentions among pre-candidates also contributes to the lack of definition about the election results.

Fernando M. Gonçalves
Pedro Renault

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file