It was bound to happen. Toronto Raptors fans got to enjoy holding the top seed in the Eastern Conference for all of a day, and perhaps there was some karma associated with getting too happy about losses for their adversaries on a Christmas Day slate they were left out of. Maybe the post-Christmas lull is just something the Raptors are bound to have forever. Whatever the case, the Raptors came out of a two-day mini-break looking nothing like the team that entered it having won 12 of 13, dropping a 98-93 decision to a bad Dallas Mavericks team that immediately stands out as one of the team’s worst losses of the season.

Toronto came out showing Dirk Nowitzki a healthy amount of respect as a pick-and-pop threat, trying to stick to him on side pick-and-rolls. That type of assignment is usually a challenge for Jonas Valanciunas, and he uncharacteristically struggled to take advantage of Nowitzki and a very game Maxi Kleber at the other end. He wasn’t alone being off his game a little to start, as even the Raptors’ lone big positive in the early moments – a Kyle Lowry pull-up three in transition – came on a bank. Things were better defensively outside of the Nowitzki matchup, although a few moments of inattention saw OG Anunoby back-cut and then Salah Mejri get free for a good look at the rim.

Anunoby also picked up two early fouls, with lead to some minutes of a returning C.J. Miles with the starters, a rarity. Serge Ibaka answered getting scored on by Kleber and Harrison Barnes consecutively with an offensive rebound for an and-one, and Valanciunas followed by aggressively grabbing his own miss and drawing a foul. That wasn’t quite enough, and Dallas opened up a six-point lead as the Raptors went to their bench bigs. The energy picked up some, but a few misses around the rim and a few unnecessary switches on defense saw Dallas continue to roll, stretching the lead to eight after Jakob Poeltl was whistled for a charge to end the quarter and Dennis Smith Jr. hit back the other way.

The rotation expanded to 11, an all-bench look still without Miles ratcheted things up to start the second, as Delon Wright stole a swing pass for a coast-to-coast dunk and a Norman Powell rebound kick-starting a Pascal Siakam-to-Poeltl transition and-one. Speed opposite the very successful Nowitzki-and-bench unit proved somewhat effective, even if it meant Fred VanVleet guarding the patented Nowitzki elbow fadeaway as Dallas attacked his size, and they actually erased the lead before a 6-0 Mavericks run required a Dwane Casey timeout. It was Wright’s turn to guard Nowitzki on a switch after that, and he blocked that same Hall-of-Fame turnaround jumper, which was easily the highlight of the game.

Despite the fun stretch, the starters faced roughly the same hole they left as they filtered back in. Valanciunas hit consecutive baskets and Lowry drew a foul, leading to a J.J. Barea technical foul that helped build a 10-0 run to wrestle control of the game away from the home side. Lowry took exception to a whistle coming out of a Dallas timeout, too, and he responded with a big three, a forced travel from Barnes on a post-up, then a dump-off for Ibaka free throws. There was slippage that derailed that progress, though, and a Yogi Ferrell-to-Maximilian Kleber alley-oop, the coolest named alley-oop in recent NBA history, sent Dallas into the break up four.

DeMar DeRozan opened up the half with a tough score through contact, a rarity in a game in which he faced some strong Wesley Matthews defense (and generally had an off night). He fairly willingly accepted playing the facilitator role instead, which left Lowry to control more of the game after a strong first half. Toronto grew frustrated with the whistle at both ends, Lowry confused by a shifting line for continuation and foul trouble for Valanciunas leading Casey to try a smaller Siakam-Ibaka frontcourt.

They pushed the pace with that look, opening up a 7-0 run before Dallas pushed back. Lowry finally cooled off a touch before hitting the bench, and a very tough offensive stretch, complete with free-throw problems, lead to a five-minute scoreless stretch for the visitors. That coincided with some effective offense from the Mavericks, all of which led to a 17-0 Mavericks run. Only a prayer of a Poeltl runner at the buzzer kept the game within single-digits, Dallas leading by eight entering the fourth.

Things did not settle down from there. The bench got several nice tip-outs from Poeltl on the offensive glass but struggled through tight spacing and poor 3-point shooting, and Barea’s takeover continued with some help from Nowitzki. Dallas opened up their largest lead, at 11 points, and Casey called on Lowry and Valanciunas to prop up the bench. Valanciunas showed some life in the post and VanVleet dug in to a post-up on defense to force a turnover and kick-start the transition game, only for VanVleet to commit a turnover a possession later and the offense to stay cold.

The starters with VanVleet in place of Anunoby actually locked in and did a pretty good job getting stops against the Mavericks, and Valanciunas did nice work against Mejri. Mejri lost his cool at one point, needing to be separated from Valanciunas and Ibaka after he felt he was fouled on a Raptors’ stop, and a review plus a Mavericks timeout gave Toronto plenty of time to freshen up for a four-minute comeback, the lead now down to five. It helped Dallas more initially, though, as Barea ended the team’s five-minute scoreless drought with a triple.

Ibaka responded with a block and a turnaround jumper in the post, and Casey went super-small without much shooting, playing three point guards, DeRozan, and Ibaka to try to make up the last of the ground. Ibaka missed a pair of good looks from there following great stops, and Barea hit Wright with a spin-move for a reverse to go back up five with 11 seconds to play. The Raptors didn’t have it in them, with Miles curiously used as the trigger-man out of a timeout and DeRozan missing a three, ending the game.

Curious decisions with Miles’ usage down the stretch aside, the Raptors didn’t really deserve to steal this one away, if deserving wins and losses is a thing that exists. They started out a little sloppy, waited until too late in the fourth quarter to find the proper gear defensively, let Barea of all people run amok on them, and didn’t get the kind of transcendent nights from their stars that have occasionally helped paper over nights like that at times. Lowry was really strong but DeRozan had one of his worst nights of the season, and not even dual double-doubles from Ibaka and Valanciunas could help float the offense in support. There was also a pretty clear adjustment period going on as Casey tried to figure out how to work an 11th man back into the rotation.

In the big picture, it was one of those losses that just sort of happens, very similar to the Clippers game, not that anyone will feel better about that. It’s tough that the Raptors have a pair of them in what could otherwise be a 14-game winning streak, and it’s a little concerning that the team’s three best players played 31-to-36 minutes to lose the easier night of a back-to-back, putting them at a disadvantage as they try to avoid their first consecutive losses in over a month. The hope has to be that they come out against the Thunder in such a way that everyone can forget the Mavericks game happened. Re-committing to moving the ball and just having some of the usual looks drop would certainly go a long way to that end.

]]>The Toronto Raptors did not play on Christmas day, the NBA’s largest annual regular-season showcase, which was a point of contention for fans and players alike. They did, however, make noise in the standings: Boston and Cleveland both losing bumped the Raptors to the top of the Eastern Conference.

There was a bit of confusion as to how, since Toronto is in first but one “game behind.” The standings are sorted by winning percentage, and the Raptors have the best one in the conference. But games behind are determined by wins and losses, so while the Raptors have two fewer losses than Boston, they also have four fewer wins. Essentially, Toronto would have to go 4-2 over the six more games they have to play to match Boston and 5-1 to maintain first place (which is a higher winning percentage than they currently have).

There are a few things to take away here. The biggest one is that the Raptors have six extra games to play, their road-heavy early part of the schedule having bought them some extra time off. That could prove tough, with some extra back-to-backs mixed in, but the Raptors also have more home games left than anyone in the NBA, which neutralizes that some. There isn’t much travel left, either, with the team never going more than one time zone away. It also means that the Raptors will have to continue to take care of lesser competition to “make up” the game on Boston. And they’ll want to – they won’t sell out for seeding and risk playoff health, but the top seed in the East has never felt more important.

The Raptors will look to get back rolling on Tuesday when they visit a struggling Dallas Mavericks team for the first night of a quick back-to-back that takes them to Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Dallas is the league’s second-worst team at 9-25, meaning there’s a good opportunity here for the Raptors to extend their winning streak to seven games and make it wins in 13 of the last 14.

Blake Murphy: I know he’s out for weeks now after undergoing thumb surgery, but what the heck did Nerlens Noel do to get so far into the doghouse? Would the Mavs unload him at the deadline (if he waives the no-trade on his qualifying offer year) to be rid of the experiment?

Kirk Henderson: A few things! First, he freelances a ton on defense. While he’s a magnificent defensive player, in terms of team concept he was hanging his teammates out to dry and either couldn’t or wouldn’t stop. Second, and this is reported information so I’m not speaking out of turn, he didn’t ever put in extra work. That isn’t going to fly with Carlisle. He’s the Patron Saint of Getting the Most Out of Mediocre Players, so that a guy with as much raw talent as Nerlens wasn’t interested in becoming more is pretty amazing. He seems to be a good teammate and good dude, but his self worth is a bit too high. He thinks he’s a superstar and he is not.

Blake Murphy: Shout out to Dirk Nowitzki. I don’t really have a question, it’s just really fun to see Dirk in full Dad Mode on a young team and still playing pretty well offensively at 39.

Kirk Henderson: It’s so weird. He’s really rounded into form too because he started the season looking ROUGH. That he thinks he has one more season in him is pretty wild too.

Blake Murphy: Maxi Kleber seems like a potentially useful find out of Germany. I know not a lot of his game pops as sexy, so what is it about his game that’s making him such an important role player? It seems like his defensive versatility opens a lot up for Rick Carlisle.

Kirk Henderson: The key thing that’s helping him right now is there is no tape on the guy. Opponents don’t know what to do when they see a 6’8″ white boy playing center next to Dirk. Heck, he blocked the great Al Horford something like four times in Boston. Guy’s don’t know what they’re getting into so it’s largely shock.

The key thing about his game, and what separates him from Nerlens, is his raw energy. He reminds me of Eduardo Najera in that way. His defensive versatility is helping keep Dallas in games more than they should be in my opinion. As the year wears on, he may become less effective, but for now he helps make this ghastly team a bit more fun to watch.

Blake Murphy: The Mavericks are near the bottom of the standings and looking down a likely top-3 pick. Are there any prospects that have really drawn your attention as The Guy you hope Dallas lands as a reward for this tough season? Is Doncic Hive in full effect in Victory Park?

Kirk Henderson: I am quite literally a Luka Doncic Fan Account on twitter, but I’m really on a lonely island at this point. I think that’s due to a pair of reasons. The first is that the schedule has been brutal early and the Mavericks are something like 1-14 in games decided in the clutch, so everyone thinks we’re going to end up with 35 wins at some point because Carlisle could lead a pack of gum to 35 wins. The other reason I’m on this island is, for now at least, a lot of people aren’t willing to buy into the Doncic hype.

Which is profoundly stupid because there’s tape of him getting the best of professional NBA players from this summer, let alone his scorched Earth campaign he’s waging overseas. It’s nice to see Bagley do stuff against children, but I’m not sold yet. Ayton looks amazing as well, but centers are not at the premium wings are these days. I am all in on Doncic. There’s also the fact that the Mavericks need to get players who fit with Rick Carlisle’s mindset and Doncic is a beast in terms of competitiveness.

Blake Murphy: What is it that you have against Dwight Powell, or the entire country of Canada?

Kirk Henderson: So he’s not as bad as I think, but he’s also not as good as those fun plus-minus numbers Zach Lowe showed. I really don’t think he’d be getting minutes for any other team in the NBA. He’s an excellent rim runner but past that he’s close to worthless. He’s too skinny to defend the post, which also makes him an up and down rebounder. He also has a great shot that never falls. He hits one three and people throw it in my face. He’s just not good.

—

Raptors updatesThe Raptors had a late practice in Dallas last night but no updates came out of it. C.J. Miles and Lucas Nogueira remain up in the air for this one, though the hope will surely be that both are available – this gives Miles about a week since his dental procedure and infection, and Nogueira was upgraded to questionable Saturday and appears close to a return.

How Dwane Casey handles his rotation when everyone is back will be interesting. He was using a 12-man rotation for a while, and nobody has really played their way out of a spot. Fred VanVleet built up a lot of goodwill while Delon Wright was out, benching Norman Powell would be a little short-sighted despite his cold play, and Jakob Poeltl has only occasionally looked like he could use a spell. With the schedule condensed some over the next few weeks, it’s entirely possible Casey goes with 11 or 12 men, something he’ll need to tighten up closer to the playoffs (it may figure itself out by then, anyway, on merit).

Mavericks updatesDallas is dealing with some injury trouble here, entering play with four players on the shelf. That’s made for an interesting rotation for Rick Carlisle, with a very large starting lineup that can throw a lot of length at DeMar DeRozan and then a bench that trots out three guards (a real opportunity for DeRozan-and-bench units with dual point guards to have some fun). It’s also meant a lot of turnover at the end of the roster, where Jeff Withey has been released and the team’s second two-way spot has bounced around – Kyle Collinsworth is currently with the team, having replaced Antonius Cleveland.

There are threats here. Dirk Nowitzki can still turn it back, Dennis Smith is a problem despite some shooting struggles, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Wesley Matthews or Harrison Barnes went off on a given night. They’re not deep or exceptional, but the Mavericks don’t really look like a “league’s worst team” on paper.

Coming off of a pair of unsightly losses to end a five-game road trip, the Toronto Raptors needed a win. They needed it in the literal sense, because a 2-3 trip had squandered their cushion for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and that’s a pretty important factor for this team looking ahead a month. They needed it in a more broad sense, too, because a losing streak can carry with it the seeds of doubt, and the schedule, while hardly arduous compared to earlier stretches, is fraught with teams fighting for their lives right now.

“I mean we’ve got what, 15, 16 games left?” head coach Dwane Casey asked rhetorically before the game, speaking to the urgency felt in the locker room. “And to understand what significance, it means in these next 16 games, home court.”

As with all things Raptors right now, that need comes with an accepted caveat: It’s probably not going to be sexy. The Raptors aren’t built to win pretty in general, and that’s an even more glaring reality when Kyle Lowry is sidelined, as he presently finds himself. It’s an old story despite being only a few weeks old right now: This version of the Raptors needs DeMar DeRozan to carry a heavy load against increasingly greater defensive attention, they need depth players to step beyond their roles, and they need to defend like hell, turning every game into an ugly war of attrition.

It couldn’t be more fitting, then, that with the Raptors in need of a win, the deciding stretch of play saw the hosts and the visiting Dallas Mavericks conspire to quietly ban all offense from the Air Canada Centre.

This is only slightly hyperbolic. The Raptors continued to lean on an all-bench group to start the fourth quarter, a fivesome that seems questionable on paper, devoid of players able to create for themselves or others, but one that had moderate success earlier in the game. Casey could choose to stagger the minutes of DeRozan, Serge Ibaka (a team-high plus-18 in a scoreless, defense-first effort), Cory Joseph, and even Jonas Valanciunas to help those groups, but the rotation remains an experiment in flux. So Casey rolled with a group that employed a high give-a-damn meter over the end of the first quarter and the start of the second, tasking them with holding on to a 13-point lead as long as possible.

Four minutes and 30 seconds later, that bench group had taken the “hold the score” edict almost too literally. To that point, a total of two points had been scored in the fourth, a long Fred VanVleet jumper that sent the Mavericks panicking with an early timeout. Until Patrick Patterson knocked down a triple, finally shaking his games-long aversion to taking them, offense was only a rumor. The Mavericks didn’t score until nearly five minutes into the frame, when Harrison Barnes dunked, preened, and cut the lead to…16. Sure.

“It makes the game a lot easier when you do that,” Casey said. “That’s the way we want to play, I thought we had a good rhythm from that tonight and that’s the key to it, getting stops…I really was impressed with Fred VanVleet, he and Delon Wright did a good job pushing the basketball, Norm Powell, keeping the tempo going.”

The game was still somewhat in reach for Dallas at that point, especially considering some of the offensive stretches the Raptors had struggled through. Casey started going back to starters, sitting Jakob Poeltl down after 44 minutes combined between this game and the Raptors 905 game earlier in the day, and eventually bringing DeRozan and Norman Powell back into the game. VanVleet remained, though, and knocked down a nice jumper as the Mavericks went under a high screen, an encouraging sign that Powell and Delon Wright have also flashed of late (VanVleet and Wright did a really nice job here of playing Fake Razor Ramon and Fake Diesel to Lowry and Joseph). Things went more or less swimmingly from there, and soon Pascal Siakam joined Poeltl in the Fred VanVleet Doubleheader Club, and Lucas Nogueira broke a string of seven consecutive DNP-CDs by playing the victory cigar role.

“He (Poeltl) and Pascal, I told ‘em, what’d Ernie Banks say? Let’s play two,” Casey said of the rookies. “Those two men are going to be excellent players in this league, their time is going to come. I love Jakob’s intellect on the floor, he knows where to be, what to do. He gets some cheap calls…those two young men are going to be excellent players in our program.”

The Raptors’ cruise-control was so extreme in the fourth quarter that DeRozan even sat down with 3:30 to go and the team up 21, finishing another terrific night with 25 points, six rebounds, and two assists. DeRozan’s two assists don’t do nearly enough justice to how he handled attention from Dallas’ gaggle of sizable wings and array of traps, as he propped up the offense for significant stretches by facilitating and making some savvy reads of the floor. Wesley Matthews leaving the game shortly before halftime with a calf injury helped, sure, but Barnes and Dorian Finney-Smith are tough assignments, and the Mavs were aggressive getting up into DeRozan early in possessions.

DeRozan’s exit was followed by the crowd roaring as Powell stared down the Mavericks defense, looking to push the Raptors to 100 points and deliver free pizza. Did he realize it? Well, he waved a hand to the crowd after making the first of two free throws, then did his duty as a fan favorite and sank the second.

“Yeah, I felt the energy when I was at the free-throw line, about getting the free throws to get 100,” Powell conceded of the somewhat silly tradition. “That’s double – we get a win and they get free pizza. But it was a big win for us coming off the road trip and dropping two, our last two games, so we were really focused and locked in.”

Prior to the near-shutout to start the fourth, Powell had been a big part of the team’s success. Not only did he take up the call of chasing a red-hot Seth Curry around and limiting him to five points, he continued his recent emergence as one of the team’s best bets to step up in support of DeRozan on offense. Powell only took eight shots, but he used them well, kicking in 19 points with three assists and really helping push Toronto’s transition game.

“Yeah, that’s when we’re at our best, when we go out there and play,” DeRozan said of the offensive tempo. “Especially once we get stops and not worrying about a play call, but understanding, get to our spots and make something happen for one another.”

Getting out and running a bit was a focal point against the glacial Mavericks, and it started on the other side of the ball. The Raptors have been better on defense since the All-Star break, and Monday was a look at how good they can be there when dialed in over even just 36 minutes. They shook off an iffy first quarter to hold Dallas to 36.5-percent shooting, just seven threes, and only 13 trips to the free-throw line, forcing Dirk Nowitzki and Harrison Barnes into tough shooting nights alongside the team’s shaky guard play. Valanciunas was able to tilt a tough Nowitzki matchup by playing bully inside, posting a 14-point, 12-rebound double-double in 23 minutes (his absence in the fourth was as much about the blowout as any performance issue), too.

Holding any team, let alone one fighting for its playoff life, to 87.7 points per-100 possessions is a nice accomplishment. Coming off of a pair of lesser defensive efforts, it’s a proper righting of the ship ahead of yet another tough weekend with three games in four nights. The team’s defensive rating is now 102.8 since the All-Star break, seventh in the league, and they’ve nudged up to 13th in defensive efficiency on the season. There are signs of respectability, and while there were divergent opinions in the locker room about how much standings-watching is appropriate at this point – Atlanta lost, giving the Raptors a renewed two-game edge in the race for fourth – there was consensus that it’s this type of defensive effort that will lend itself to the results they need over the next month.

“If we string this together,” Patterson cautioned about the fleeting success of defense. “This is how we should be playing on a consistent basis on the defensive side of the ball. It shows what we are capable of on the defensive end of the ball, but it’s just one game.”

It’s just one game. One ugly game. Ugly sure is a lot prettier in a win.

The Dallas Mavericks are visiting the Toronto Raptors on Monday, and you know what that means: A tall, white, sweet-shooting big-man is in town. Yes, it’s the return of Jarrod Uthoff, who was in camp with the Raptors and then spent time with Raptors 905 before being dealt to Fort Wayne and subsequently called up by the Mavericks.

Oh, and Dirk Nowitzki, he of the 30,000-point club, is here.

“Not yet,” Uthoff said at shootaround when asked if anyone has made the reductive parallel between the two yet. “I’ve gotten the Dirk comparisons since I was young in college.”

More than any actual comparison between their games, Uthoff was excited just to get to watch and work alongside Nowitzki. Nowitzki, obviously, will be the focus of most fans on Monday, as this stands as perhaps his final visit to Toronto. The Mavericks hold a team option on the 38-year-old’s contract for next season, and Nowitzki’s future has always been a year-to-year matter. His game is holding up well enough that he could almost definitely give it another season, and whether or not Nowitzki and Vince Carter (among others) want to stick around as the final relics of my early NBA fandom will be one of the more notable storylines of the offseason.

For now, Nowitzki is still here, and he’s worthy of serious appreciation. And attention on the court – he’s still averaging 14.1 points on nearly league-average true-shooting, and he’s long had an affinity for lighting up the Raptors, averaging 22.9 points in 28 career meetings with a 42.3-percent mark from long-range.

Raptors updatesAll of the 905ers were recalled after their afternoon game at the ACC< and Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam should be available. Poeltl is in a continued battle with Lucas Nogueira for the backup center spot, and while Nogueira deserves another chance at some point, Poeltl has given Dwane Casey little reason to go away from him. It’s not that big a talking point, anyway, as the Raptors have been leaning on a true backup center infrequently – Serge Ibaka is seeing ample time there, Patrick Patterson is even seeing a few minutes at the five, and the Mavericks are small enough that the Raptors could conceivably downsize without much risk in this one.

That’s especially true if DeMarre Carroll plays, which it sounds like he will. I asked Casey about his status before the game and Casey said he would play before dialling it back to a “we’ll see” and calling it a game-time decision. Carroll went through shootaround, which is a good sign. If he can go, the Raptors have plenty of options matching smaller. If he can’t, the Raptors will need more out of Patrick Patterson, especially from a shooting standpoint (that’s probably true regardless). Norman Powell or P.J. Tucker would stand to start in Carroll’s place, and the guess here is that Powell would get the nod to chase Seth Curry around.

UPDATE: Carroll is out tonight. He told me prior to the game that he aggravated the ankle injury in Friday’s game, similar to what happened with DeMar DeRozan earlier in the year. No word yet on who will start.

Mavericks updatesNerlens Noel will sit due to knee soreness, though the fact that he traveled with the team to Toronto should be encouraging to Mavericks fans. That takes away a rangy defender and rim-protector, which helps the Raptors’ case here. It could also open up minutes for Uthoff or a bigger role for Dwight Powell, but the most likely case is that the Mavericks stay small for longer stretches. Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, and Dorian Finney-Smith should all see some time across the forward spots, providing Rick Carlisle with multiple large defenders to throw at DeMar DeRozan.

Bruno Caboclo was recalled midway through the Raptors 905 game this afternoon, but it was mostly just a paperwork move. Caboclo is dealing with a right shoulder injury and is considered day-to-day. Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam were also recalled.

Siakam and Poeltl were both terrific in a 905 blowout victory at the ACC. They each played 32 minutes but should be available if necessary against Dallas – Fred VanVleet pulled the double-header in December, you’ll recall.

Delon Wright cut his hair. I’m disappointed. I dug the look he had going for him. It’s always funny to see the whole team with fresh cuts the first day back after a long road trip.

From time-to-time here, I’ve linked to my work over at The Athletic. That work is usually behind a paywall. Starting today, Raptors Republic readers can get 20 percent off the subscription price by using this link. I know some people don’t like the idea of paying for content, but it’s (in my opinion) an important journalistic experiment, and you get not only my freelance work but the full-time work of Eric Koreen, James Mirtle, John Lott, and many more awesome writers. Using that link also helps support me, personally, which in turn helps the sustainability of Raptors Republic.

The lineThe Raptors are 5-point favorites with a 196.5 over-under. That line has nudged up from Raptors -4 but is edging back to -4.5 in some places. It will be interesting to see if Carroll’s status moves the needle at all, but it seems somewhat unlikely this one will move by more than a half-point, anyway.

Coming off back-to-back losses and a 2-3 record on a five-game road trip, the Toronto Raptors return home Monday to host Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks. On balance, this is a nice opportunity for the Raptors to settle things down, as Dallas enters at 28-37. But with their playoff life on the line, the Mavericks are surging a bit, winning four of five and six of eight, with their two losses in that span coming by five and two points. In other words, there’s nothing easy to be had here.

And there shouldn’t be. The Raptors are still without Kyle Lowry, and their formula for winning without him is fairly tenuous. The burden on DeMar DeRozan will continue to be immense, the defense, which has been much better out of the All-Star break, will have to be on-point, and one or two role players will need to out-perform their normal duties in support on offense. Some nights, that’s been Norman Powell. Others, Serge Ibaka. If the Raptors’ 3-point shooters could step up one of these times, well that would just be terrific – with extra attention on DeRozan and opponents swarming the paint, the Raptors have responded by shooting 6-of-40 from deep over their last two and 30.9 percent over the last nine. Bud, your shooters, woof.

They need to figure it out shortly, even if their play of late is understandable given the circumstances. Toronto has Oklahoma City visiting Thursday on the first night of a back-to-back, and their four games after that are against East teams fighting for playoff positioning. They have an easier schedule the rest of the way by opponent quality, but most of the teams they’ll be playing have a lot on the line. The Raptors, meanwhile, are just one game up on the Hawks for the fourth seed, and the Celtics and Wizards are extending beyond reach. Home court is the goal, and it’s an important one that the Raptors can’t loosen their hold on, even here, 16 games from the finish line.

Blake Murphy: Man, so, Dirk Nowitzki reaching 30,000 points. I know how cool it felt when DeMar DeRozan hit just 10,000 points. I can only imagine. What was that moment, that night like for long-time Mavericks fans?

Kirk Henderson: It was really fun, if slightly silly. I say silly because he was already the 6th leading scorer in NBA history, so joining the 30,000 point club feels slightly arbitrary. But I was still giddy and thrilled to watch him reach that milestone. Mavs fans had been holding on to that point when the season started so awfully. It was also *how* he did it. Dirk’s never been a gunner but how great was it to see him score 18 in the first quarter? And then when he hit the shot to take him to 30k, he came right back down and stuck a three on the break. Delicious.

Blake Murphy: At 38, Nowitzki is still kinda kicking it as a useful offensive focal points. Is the entire strategy of the franchise geared around maximizing these Nowitzki twilight years? Because they *should* probably be looking a few years down the line, but they can push a bit to get Nowitzki another postseason appearance or two.

Kirk Henderson: It has been. For too long in my opinion, but that’s largely because since 2012, the Mavericks have always looked to free agency to cure the woes and this season is the first time they’ve acknowledged that the future is coming. For years, Rick Carlisle has been the master of getting the most out of specialized role players. Seth Curry and Harrison Barnes (and to a lesser extent, Nerlens) give the Mavericks an outlook longer than the current season. It’s been nice.

Blake Murphy: Somewhat unexpectedly, the Mavs are only 2.5 games out despite being well-below .500. The bottom of the West is just, ugh. But it’s an opportunity, and the Mavericks have looked more spry of late. How confident are you Dallas can nab the final spot and earn the right to lose to the Warriors in round one?

Kirk Henderson: I’m about 50/50. The Mavericks are humming but so are the Wolves and Nuggets. The Blazers are there too obviously but they have higher aspirations than the eight seed. I’d like to see Warriors vs Mavs because the narratives are vast. Harrison Barnes returns! Brother vs brother. Oh and let’s not forget it’s the 10 year anniversary of the We Believe Warriors shocking the number one seed Mavs.

Blake Murphy: The Mavericks were able to land Nerlens Noel at the deadline. Long a player Raptors fans have lusted after, Noel came at the cost of Justin Anderson and a first that will likely convert to two seconds. You have to like this deal for the Mavericks, right? What have you seen from Noel so far?

Kirk Henderson: I’m in love. He and Dirk have been insane together. Beyond that pairing, he’s just the kind of player Carlisle gets the most from. If he can develop into a player in the mold of Tyson chandler then that would be amazing. For now, I’ll settle for having a young center with upside, even if he may cost and arm and a leg this summer in restricted free agency.

Blake Murphy: Jarrod Uthoff is the 23rd different player to get into a game for the Mavericks this year. A cast-off from Raptors camp and then Raptors 905, do you see much potential in that addition? He has some NBA skills there.

Kirk Henderson: So I don’t know much about him but the D-League stalwarts of twitter seem to believe. Also, a few of the site’s writers also want to see what he can do. I hope he gets some real chances in the next few weeks.

—

Raptors updatesIt is becoming increasingly more difficult to peg down return timelines for any injured Raptors. A day-to-day tag led to three months off for Jared Sullinger, and 17 games missed for Patrick Patterson, and wrist surgery for Kyle Lowry. So when DeMarre Carroll is called questionable, sits a game, returns for a game, and then has to sit again because of residual soreness in his left ankle, what do we make of that? What we should probably make of it is that Carroll tried to gut it out before he was 100 percent and felt worse for the wear on the second night of a back-to-back. It does make it more difficult to figure if he’ll return Monday, though, or if the team will see two days off afterwards as a way of getting Carroll all the way back before asking him to play again.

If Carroll goes, cool. The starting lineup with him in it is a minus-3.5 net rating in 104 minutes, but Carroll’s shooting should come around eventually (in theory), and that group could use the spacing he provides. The Mavericks also go small with multiple wings fairly often, and so the switchability and opportunity to downsize that Carroll provides could be important. If he sits, though, Norman Powell and P.J. Tucker can fill in, and both have had some strong nights of late, albeit rarely at the same time. The starters with Tucker are a plus-4.7 in 27 minutes and the starters with Powell a minus-40.5 in 16 minutes, but these are laughably small samples since the acquisition of Serge Ibaka, and any lineup is liable to struggle without the spacing and playmaking Lowry provides in support of DeRozan. The more options you have available on a given night, though, the better, so here’s hoping Carroll’s fine.

Mavericks updatesThe acquisition of Nerlens Noel had the wind taken out of its sails almost immediately out of the gate, with Noel suffering a minor knee injury. He’s missed the last two games due to soreness, but he’s traveling with the team to Toronto. As much as Noel sounds as if he wants to play, it also seems unlikely that Dallas would push it if there’s any residual soreness or swelling whatsoever, as there was Saturday. If Noel can go, that’s big for Dallas, as he’s averaged 10 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks in just 242. minutes in six games since coming over from the 76ers. If he can’t, that’s more minutes small for Dallas, some time for Canadian Dwight Powell, and perhaps a look for former Raptors 905 player Jarrod Uthoff, who got two minutes of run the other night.

Elsewhere in the rotation, it’s tough to figure how things may go. The Mavericks are tough to explain, with several pieces out-performing expectations or fighting off father time. Their starting lineup has outscored opponents by 3.7 points per-100 possessions over 200 minutes together. Outside of that group, though, their most heavily used lineups involved Deron Williams or Andrew Bogut, so the new-look Mavericks are still an experiment in progress. Keep an eye out for Dorian Finney-Smith, a pre-draft Republic favorite – since the break, the Mavericks have outscored opponents by 9.6 points per-100 possessions with him on the court, and he’s been a nice positive for them all year long.

The lineThe Raptors are 4-point favorites, after the line opened at Raptors -5. The status of Carroll may make a bit of difference, but Noel’s availability will probably move the line more. The over-under is down at 197.5 from an opening mark of 200, a bet on two of the slowest-paced teams in the league grinding things out.

]]>The Dallas Mavericks are in town to take on the Toronto Raptors. That means a lot of attention on Dirk Nowitzki, one of the best to ever do it and the greatest shooting big man of all time.

Raptors head coach Dwane Casey had the pleasure of coaching Nowitzki when he was a Mavericks’ assistant from 2007 to 2011, seeing first hand the type of work that goes into Nowitzki’s success. Casey was around Nowitzki when he was a young pup in his early-30s and saw even then what Nowitzki would do to ensure his long-term success. Here’s Casey from shootaround Tuesday:

He’s a worker. There’s not a player on that team that works harder than Dirk. 24-7, he’s back in there at night time working on his 3-point shot, he’s working on his footwork, he stays in tremendous shape year-round. It’s nothing that work doesn’t take care of. There’s not a player in the NBA that works harder than him, and that’s why he’s able to keep his edge, keep the fountain of youth that he’s kept over the years. He’s done it through hard work.

It’s incredible that Nowitzki remains a highly effective offensive player several years later, here at age 37. He’s averaging 17.2 points, seven rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 48.1 percent overall and 38.9 percent on threes. He’s on pace to hit 112 triples for the year, a mark that would rank 12th all time among players age 37 or older. And again, this is a 7-footer with more than 50,000 minutes on his odometer between regular season and playoffs, not including his substantial international contributions, too.

Unlike some other stars who have found their way as role players later in their careers, Nowitzki remains largely the same O.G. Again, here’s Casey:

It’s still the same Dirk. He still does what he does, as far as shooting the ball. His footwork’s the same, his positioning on the floor is the same. He’s still doing what he’s done for years and that’s shoot the ball. He keeps the ball so high up, it’s hard to get to. He knows that, he works on that. He does some crazy drills each day, every night. Holger (Geschwinder), his personal shooting coach, has done a great job with him over the years to keep him sharp.

Nowitzki stretching out defenses over the last two decades has helped shape the way the game has gone, with bigs more or less required to shoot now if they’re not highly effective interior players. There are exceptions, but for the most part Nowitzki has helped shift things to the point where most teams at least want the option to be able to go four-out.

The Raptors have one such big in Patrick Patterson, a 6-foot-9 power forward with a 36.2-percent career mark from long-range. Patterson will be tasked with helping contain Nowitzki on Tuesday, something he believes will be a daunting task. Here’s Patterson at shootaround:

His skillset. His mindset. He may be older than the average player in the NBA but he’s vintage. Just like wine, he gets better with age. He’s so creative with his post moves, his shot’s impossible to block. He always gets to his move no matter what you do. All you have to do is hope that he misses when you do a strong contest and try to make him as uncomfortable out there as possible. But he’s so reliable from the three, just unconscious when it comes to shooting the ball. He’s just an overall great player, so he’s just extremely hard to guard offensively.

]]>As the Raptors prepare for another early season test against the Mavericks a plethora of sub-plots exist in this offensive showdown.

The most obvious is that Dallas (109.3 PPG) and Toronto (108.0 PPG) rank first and second in the Association for their offensive prowess.

There is the fact Dwane Casey came to the Raptors via Dallas where he functioned as the defensive coaching specialist to Head Coach: Rich Carlisle.

Plus there are a number of areas the teams will battle for supremacy:

better bench

fourth quarter dominance

most cohesive unit, 1-15

lowest turnovers

masters of the intangibles: blocks, steals, second-chance points etc

Then there is the on-going 3-year battle that has waged between Maverick big man Tyson Chandler and Raptor rising star Jonas Valanciunas. Though most would assume Chandler has owned this match-up, the truth is Valanciunas has had some of his best games versus the Mavericks’ center and will undoubtedly be dialed in tonight.

And finally, looking back at the 2013-14 season, December 20th, marks a pivotal date for the current Raptors as the overtime win in Dallas can be cited as the exact moment our young players began to believe in themselves. The following night in Oklahoma the Raptors won again and their record setting miracle season along with their new identity was cemented. For those of you who love stats consider: Toronto is 55-24 since the Rudy Gay trade for a 69% win share. Taking into account their 7-1 preseason raises that number to 62-25 for a 71% win share!

Comparing the Teams:

Taking a closer look at stats via ESPN and NBA.com proves daunting as for every one Toronto advantage, Dallas offers one in a different category.

Dallas has scoring (+1.3), rebounding (+2.4) and assists (+4.1) advantages. NOTE: in past four games Raptors rank top-10 in assists.

Toronto has advantages in ball protection (+0.2), steals (+1.0), point differential (+2.1) and defensively holding teams to 3.4 less PPG (or 2.3 less per 100 possessions).

One specific area which may provide an advantage for the home side will be how each team shoots and defends behind the arc. As we witnessed in the Hawk game Atlanta came out on fire hitting 8 of 13 for 61% however the Raptor adjustments at the half led to Atlanta only hitting 2 of 11 threes or 18% in the second half. For an offensive powerhouse like Dallas I expected them to be among the top 3-point shooters (33.2%), however Toronto connects at a more consistent rate (36.2%). Dallas make up for this by attempting 4.6 more threes per game resulting in one extra made 3-per game.

Mavericks’ 5-losses:

Review of the Mavericks 5-losses shows teams that hold Dallas under their 3-point average hold a distinct advantage. On the flip side Dallas is 29th at defending the three which bodes well for Toronto especially if Vasquez can carry over his hot shooting from Atlanta. Not surprisingly defense ruled the day as the 5-teams who beat Dallas all held them to 100 points or under and in the last 3-road games against teams with winning records Dallas averaged 39.2%, scoring just 94.7 points.

NOTE: score and 3-point % Dallas shot in each loss.

Spurs: 101-100 – 38.1%

Portland: 108-87 – 21.7%

Miami: 105-96 – 31%

Houston (without Howard): 95-92 – 17%

Indiana: 111-100 – 33.3%

In four of the five losses Nowitzki was held under his season average of 19.7 points.

The other trend that ran through all 5-losses was Dallas’ bench was held under their 37.9 point per game average

Strength of Schedule:

This area continues to dominate discussion surrounding the Raptors win record despite the fact they’ve showcased their ability to win regardless of the situation. And while I’d argue they’ve won despite who their schedule dictated I thought I’d provide a little ammunition for those fans looking to shed some light to the naysayers: John Hollinger has consistently ranked Toronto first in his daily ranking. He bases the SOS on the record of the teams played to date ranking Toronto 16th, but more importantly in the last 10 he ranks them as having faced the 8th most difficult opponents.

Positional Breakdown:

Guards: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, vs Jameer Nelson, Monta Ellis

Whether you put Lowry and DeRozan in the conversation for best back court in the league or not you better not take them for granted. Few back courts can bring the versatility, scoring, intangibles and leadership displayed by Lowry and DeRozan. For my money Lowry has been by far the best guard in the East and continues to prove each outing how much he’s grown as a leader. DeRozan is learning to deal with the opposition’s additional game focus and continues to demonstrate growth via his ability to do other things when a team successfully limits his tools.

Ellis is one of the most creative guards in the Association fitting Carlisle’s style of play like a glove. It’s hard to imagine he ever played in Golden State watching how well he meshes with Dirk.

Edge: Raptors- I’ll re-iterate, Kyle Lowry is on a mission and does whatever it takes to be successful. He continues to operate as if knowing 5-seconds sooner than everyone else when the bomb will explode and acts accordingly.

This is where the key match-up lies, specifically between youngster Valanciunas and wily vet Chandler. As I noted above Valanciunas gets up for this type of challenge, especially when it features a more prototypical big. Last season Valanciunas faced Chandler three times and had two of his best outings of the season:

With added strength, knowledge and a new found confidence look for him to want to show Chandler how much he’s grown.

Dirk is potentially the best 7′ shooter the game has ever seen (apologies to Durant who’ll likely surpass his totals during his career), so Amir Johnson will have his hands full. Helping the cause will be Nowitzki’s disparity of shooting percentage facing winning teams 40.4% versus 59.8% against sub-500 teams.

Chandler Parsons has fit in well with his new team and Carlisle’s system, but I don’t see him doing much more than being a good addition so far. The second most intriguing battle is the one between Parsons and Ross. Will we get a 2-way performance from TRoss who has been scoring at a better clip since his hero Vince Carter graced the ACC and woke him up?

Edge: Dallas – I mean can you seriously bet against a guy like Nowitzki

Phoenix is the top ranked bench, so the Raptors have already proven they can compete at that level. Dallas is no pushover at depth though, so expect our guards to continue to aggressively apply the pressure and whoever is rolling will get the extra minutes from Casey. Of greater concern will be whether our starting front court can keep Dallas’ bigs in check so we might see another masterful veteran positioning clinic from the Chuckster or if Hansbrough returns his energy could reap rewards for the home side. There is very little to differentiate between these two teams and their benches are no different, however I suspect the youth, variety and ability of the best 4-guard unit (that’s my opinion) in the league will cause headache and heartache for the Mavericks.

Edge: Raptors – with Johnson back healthy, Williams current shooting barrage, Patterson doing all the little things and Vasquez suddenly out of a scoring slump our bench is just beginning to realize how dominant they can be.

Defense:

Toronto is on a 6-game win streak so the odds of winning aren’t necessarily in their favor and Dallas has those 2-losses from last season to atone for, but at the end of the day it all comes down to defense. I’ll give 7th ranked Toronto the edge over Dallas who is tied for 13th on the defensive end (as per NBA.com). More importantly we’ve started seeing this team gel into a semblance closer to what we came to expect from them last season with new additions Johnson and Williams fitting into Casey’s schemes perfectly. Keep an eye on who controls pace as limiting Dallas’ possessions will also be critical to capture the win.

I often get asked why many believe DeRozan, Valanciunas and Ross have improved defensively. To that end, I found a great video example courtesy of Tim Legler which breaks down one defensive set.

Observing how much each individual moves in a single possession perhaps explains why the Raptors save this defensive intensity for fourth quarters and why it would be difficult to sustain over 48-minutes and still score over 100 points.

Vegas favors Raptors by 3.5 with O/U of 210. I say NEVER bet against a streak or a Raptor team who have something to prove.

Bits and Pieces:

The cumulative wins for Toronto’s Atlantic Division rivals is 14

Toronto has a 36-game win streak when entering fourth-quarter ahead

Carlisle next win will be number 300 as Maverick coach

Raptors have won the last 3-games vs. Dallas

Both wins against Dallas last season the Raptors overcame 19 point deficits

Tonight is another purple throw-back jersey game

Jameer Nelson missed last game due to back spasms

Enjoy the game and come visit us after for our Quick React and join in the conversation.

]]>https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/11/28/game-day-mavericks-vs-raptors-offensive-juggernauts-square/feed/58Jose can you see? Pre-game: Raptors vs. Maverickshttps://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/01/22/jose-can-see-pre-game-raptors-vs-mavericks/
https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/01/22/jose-can-see-pre-game-raptors-vs-mavericks/#commentsWed, 22 Jan 2014 17:18:49 +0000http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/?p=40769Jose Calderon and the hot-shooting Mavericks are in town to see if the Raptors are still giving away free wins.

1. I could not have been more wrong about the Raptors being a team that doesn’t take lesser opponents lightly and pay the price for it.

2. I apparently have the ability to negatively sway the outcome of games with my overconfident predictions. Pagan sports gods be damned.

3. Nobody knows what to suspect when this Raptors team takes the court. They can seemingly beat or lose to any team in the league on any given night.

Toronto Raptors -1.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks

Fans will get to embrace the return of 3 former Raptors in Jose Calderon (uproarious round of applause), Shawn Marion (oh yeah, he played here) and Vince Carter (he who shall not be named).

Jose Calderon has been a perfect fit thus far in the lone star state. Rick Carlisle has been making a concerted effort to utilize Jose Calderon’s 3-point shooting mastery with set plays and high screens designed specifically for him. 42 games in to the season and at 235 3PA, Calderon has already almost eclipsed his previous career high of 283 3PA for an entire season. Those extra shots are going in at a 45% rate (4th best in the league for players with at least 100 attempts), as Toronto fans may bitterly remember from the Raptors December 20 overtime win when Calderon went 7 for 10 from deep.
Calderon and Dirk Nowitzki are mind bogglingly close to both putting up 50-40-90 club numbers this season, with Calderon currently at 46%FG-45%3P-89%FT and Dirk at 48%FG-39%3P-90%FT. That’s insane. The rest of the team aren’t exactly brick layers either, as the team as a whole is hovering around the 50-40-80 mark with 47%FG-37%3P-79%FT shooting splits. This Mavericks team might not be a top tier title contender, but they’ve got some historically great shooting at their disposal.

It’s a good thing for the Mavericks sake that they’ve been unconscious from the floor, because their defensive efficiency comes in at 21st in the league, giving up 107.8 points per 100 possessions. Free throw disparity has been a consistent thorn in the Mavericks side as well, as the Mavericks are taking the 4th least free throws per FGA in the league while giving up the 3rd most free throws per FGA on defense. That’s what happens when you play Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon and Dirk Nowitzki together without any kind of rim protection. Dirk is actually the best rim protector the Mavs have this year, according to NBA.com/stats, a devastating condemnation of a Mavericks frontcourt rotation that is giving up between 52 and 59% shooting to opponents at the rim. The fact that there are 9 teams worse defensively than the Mavericks is more of a credit to Carlisle’s coaching and this groups team mentality guarding the pick and roll.

The Raptors have endured a big, 2 embarrassing home loss-sized slice of reality in the last week to hopefully bring their focus back where it needs to be. The Raptors showed in both losses against the Lakers and HorBobnetcats how bad they can be when they’re checked out, and how impressive they can be when they’re locked in on defense, scoring in transition and cycling the ball for open 3s and shots at the rim. Valanciunas continues to be a force when he’s involved in the game on offense, and less enthused and probably on Casey’s bench come the 4th quarter when he isn’t. He’s 21 years old and has spent most of the last 2 years being largely ignored by his teammates after getting his standard two first quarter post touches, so I’m not going to blame the guy. But he’s got the same mismatch he exploited for 18 points and 13 rebounds in 34 minutes in the December 20 game, so it would be awfully nice to see an engaged and properly utilized Jonas in this one.

The game plan for the Raps in this one should be simple. Valanciunas and Amir Johnson will both enjoy considerable offensive advantages. Jonas with his size in the post and Johnson with Nowitzki likely wanting nothing to do with the strength and aggression that Amir hits the offensive glass with. In lineups with a Monta-Calderon backcourt, the Raptors will need to exploit DeRozan or Ross’s notable size mismatch. Dallas’ need to double team or help towards DeRozan when guarded by the smaller Mavs guards led to an impressive and uncommon 9 assists from DeMar in the last meeting.

Toronto will need to take care of the ball as well, as the crafty Calderon and slippery quick Ellis both make up for their defensive deficiencies by creating an abundance of turnovers while giving up very few of their own.

You can rest assured that a Mavericks team who plays very poorly on defense and who shoots very well on offense is going to show up to play tonight. You can also rest assured that I have absolutely no idea what Toronto team is going to show up to play tonight. This game is well within their grasp to win though, and given the matchup, very likely to be a fun one to watch. Toronto -1.5 and o/u of 203.5, I’ll take Toronto and the over in a bounce back win for the Dino’s in which, more importantly than anything else, the fans get pizza.

I thought that Indiana game was a bit closer than it seemed; the Pacers hit every single crucial shot they had, and still only won by 5. You have to figure if Amir caught one of the two passes in the key that he missed (either would have finished in a dunk), the Raptors made a stop down the stretch, or the Pacers missed on of the many shots they shouldn’t have hit, the Raps could be 2-0 right now. That’s my glass is half-full moment, down to business.

The defending champs host the Raptors for what will be their 4th game in 6 nights; on the second night of a back-to-back having played the Thunder in Oklahoma. That’s a lot of wear and tear for an aging team who is 0-3 to start the season. That said, these are the defending champs with a war-tested lineup; can’t take them lightly.

True or False: Cuban and Nelson don’t get enough credit for the teams they’ve been fielding for the last decade.

Ian I think they get the right amount of credit. Cuban is known for be willing to spend and for letting the basketball people make the decisions. Nelson has shown a great understanding of timing, not just buying low and selling high, but knowing when the structure of the team needs to go in a different direction.

Rob True. I don’t want to instill the Mavericks with more of a victim complex than they already have (sorry, Shawn Marion — I meant to say “World Champion Mavericks,”), but building and maintaining a contender for more than a decade is no small feat. Dallas may only have one title to show for all of Cuban and Nelson’s hard work, but they played some incredible basketball for 11 straight seasons. That’s damn impressive.

The Mavs retooled in the off-season, replacing Chandler w/ Odom, signing VC and Delonte; without jeopardizing their 2012 cap situation I must add. I look up and down this roster and feel this team is better than the one that won the championship last year; thoughts?

Ian The team that won the championship last season was not the same team they had on paper, it was a beautiful origami construction, using that paper as a raw material. These first two losses for the Mavericks are a reminder that they need to take what they have and make it into something much greater.

Rob I’d give Lamar Odom a slight edge over Tyson Chandler in whatever universal comparison of basketball players I can muster, Vince Carter is fairly comparable to Caron Butler (if you count him in your estimations of the championship team), and Delonte West is better than J.J. Barea. But as a team? I’d say this roster is a bit inferior; Chandler, Barea, and even DeShawn Stevenson were perfect fits for this particular team, while the new pieces contribute to a less complete overall product.

This season could finally be the one that Jason Kidd’s body says “enough’s enough”? With Dirk potentially having a couple more elite seasons in him in the front court, wouldn’t the priority heading into the summer be signing Deron Williams as a free agent target?

Ian Absolutely, but it sounds a lot like one of those “hometown loyalty” pipe-dreams. The Mavericks need to be proactive in building a roster for the future. Adding a player of Williams’ caliber would be tremendous, but the possibility seems too tenuous to be the centerpiece of a plan.

Rob Both are possibilities; Kidd’s drop-off could come without warning, and Dallas has very real interest in acquiring Williams. But it’s one strategy, not the strategy. The Mavs aren’t banking on age-old ties to a high school to bring in Williams, just as they won’t be banking on an age-old point guard to guide them into the next era. Nelson and Cuban are staying flexible, being mindful of their spending, and playing it by ear. They obviously have some tentative plans in place, but overall their outlook is more of a flow chart than an agenda.

Call the game

Ian My apologies to the Raptors fans but I think the Mavericks get on track with a win tonight.

Rob I’ll say Dallas wins a tight one. The Mavs looked much improved against the Thunder on Thursday night, and while they’re sure to be weary after their down-to-the-wire loss, I see them building on their performance in Friday’s game. They’ll have their hands full with a more active Raptors team, but I think the Mavs get it done for their first win of the season.

Match-Ups

Point Guard
I know we’re just two games into the season, but the Raptors are 8th in defense. Don’t rip me a new one, I realize it’s ony two games, but when the hell have we ever been top 10 in defense? Some of that starts with Calderon on the perimeter not doing his clapping hands routine. The one thing that has me concerned about Kidd after watching Paul George have all the time in the world the other night from beyond the arc, is Kidd being put in the same spot; otherwise, keeping him under control shouldn’t be a mission for Calderon (and Bayless who is my 2nd least favourite Raptor after Magloire).Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
DeRozan played ball all summer, is young, in great shape, a gym rat…yet still has been having a tough time with catching a rhythm early in games. Had it not been for an epic 2nd half against the Pacers, everyone would be pretty ‘meh’ on the kid right now. That said, his shot has looked really good this year. Barbosa has given us exactly what we’ve expected from the get-go (stayed fresh in Brazil while the rest of the league played XBOX and such). The Mavs have two guys over 34 (Terry/Carter) and a head case (West). So while Carter’s best days are behind him, Terry still has some gas in the tank, and has been playing well so far. West is the only one of the lot who plays any defense, but I have a suspicion the Mavs will give the Raptors just enough wiggle room that they will find their offensive stride.Edge: Mavericks

Small Forward
James Johnson can play defense, rebound, and dunk in transition, and…that’s about it. He should never be allowed to shoot another jumper or put the ball on the floor, again. That said, he’s loads better than Weems. Marion on the other hand hasn’t been to the free throw line yet this season. This troubles me, especially considering he still insists on shooting 3s. Regardless, he’s still got enough to completely nullify anything (Rasual Butler, seriously?) the Raptors can throw at him at the 3, and give Bargnani some fits if Dallas ever goes small ball. The 3-spot quickly falls off after Marion, but they are deep enough to trot out some interesting lineup combinations.Edge: Mavericks

Power Forward
Nowitzki > Bargnani. Bargs is making strides, nice ones, but there’s nothing else to talk about here.Edge: Mavericks

Center
One day I’m actually going to put together my list of players I loathe; Brendan Haywood will be on that list, close to the top. I hate how the Raptors single handedly made him look like a star when he played for the Wizards. I did enjoy how after the Mavs handed him that retarded contract of his, they realized they wouldn’t be able to win anything with him as their starting center, then went and got themselves Chandler; that must have been fairly emasculating. So he will have a couple dunks, miss everything from the line and be pretty invisible for the night. Odom may or may not finally wake up and actually choose to contribute, and knowing the Raptors luck it could be tonight, but I like the center-by-committee the Raptors can field against this lot.Edge: Raptors

The Line

The gamblers have the Mavs as 9.5 point favourites with an over/under of 196. I’m really torn on this one, on the one-hand it’s hard to imagine the Mavs losing their 4th game in a row to start the season at home to the Raptors, but on the other hand they are giving up 110 points a game. Mavs by 3, bet against the line.

Arsenalist has a Breaking It Down post dropping after lunch; check it out.

Injury Report

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Linas Kleiza – Out

Dallas
Caron Butler – Out

Player Report

Jose Calderon
Friday was a low point for Jose since taking full control of the starting unit. 0pts 7ast in 24mins; much like the rest of the team (Bargnani/Barbosa/Davis excluded) he was pretty flat. 0-3 from the field, no trips to the line. Are you serious? This only serves to strengthen our draft position, but it’s out of his character to dog it on the court. Either he’s hurt, or he’s tired. Regardless, he wont need to worry about a fast point guard who can beat him off the dribble tonight. Jason Kidd turns 38 in a month, but he’s no Steve Nash, and is more reputation than production at this point.

The Mavs are 8th in the league in defense, and while they have guys like Chandler patrolling the key, you have to give Kidd some credit for being part of a team committed to D. The guy still rebounds the ball very well, is an exceptional passer and can hit open threes. Jose needs to attack the old man, make him work in transition and not leave him open at the top of arc for the long ball. I’m smelling a comeback game, even though I’ve been calling for it all it.Box: 10pts 11ast 5rebs

DeMar DeRozan
I liked that technical he got on Friday, love seeing my guys fired up and pissed off. It was disappointing that he only got to the line twice against a weak (I’m be generous here) Suns defense. There were all kinds of lanes that he could have taken to the rim, but the offense was disjointed, and everything seemed like it was one-and-done. Hard to get going in those circumstances, but he still managed a pretty decent showing. Still, two trips to the line, that’s pretty brutal. Looking back on his year, when he shoots at least 6 free throws, he’s scored at least 20 points (note: there were three cases where he took a great deal of shots to get past 20 though). Getting to the line = being aggressive with the ball = attacking the defense = jumpers not the main course for the evening.

He’s got Beaubois tonight in a match-up he should own. The Mavs are very reluctant to trade the kid, and while he’s nice, I don’t know that he’s good enough to justify not making moves to bring in savior vets who make better decisions with the ball. Much like the Cavs not wanting to part with JJ Hickson when Amar’e was on the table. Rodrigue will be a pest with his speed and quick hands, but he doesn’t have the size to really bother our boy. Heres to hoping for 8 trips to the line.Box: 20pts 4rebs

James Johnson
I’m starting to like him a lot, more than Wright. I do have one question though: how did he jump the line so quickly when Wright is as good defensively, but better on the offensive end? Also, if his starting gig holds, how much do you think it will cost Weems as a free agent this summer? Personally, I don’t care if he scores if he keeps giving us that defense on the wing; it was how I felt with Wright, but I like this kid more, must be the Iverson arm sleeve he wears.

I love Peja, wish we held on to him if for no other reason than have him sit on the bench with the pimp suit and nicely combed part in his hair. Since being traded, he’s averaging 11pts 3rebs 1ast 1stl while sticking two treys a game. Granted he gives very little on defense, so there will be plenty of opportunities for JJ to get to the rim.Box: 7pts 7rebs 1stl 2blk

Amir Johnson
Not sure what Friday was, but I expected much more from Amir against the Suns. He’s averaging 8.6pts 5.4rebs 1ast 1.4blk, nothing to write home about especially since we were getting used to him approaching double-double’s on a regular basis. Could be time to start thinking about using his energy off the bench and giving Davis some burn as a starter, I see no downside. He’s going to need all the energy he can muster against Chandler, who’s playing for another $10mil/year contract in the summer. I’m still pretty pissed we lost out on him in the summer, and have been meaning to write a post all year on what this team would look like had that Bobcats trade gone through (Jack/Bayless, DeRozan, Diaw, Bargnani, Chandler w/ Davis, Johnson, Barbosa, Kleiza off the bench – that’s good for 45 wins with a very manageable cap situation and young player development; sigh). You know he’s going to want to avenge that pathetic 3pt 6reb performance in the loss earlier in the season.8pts 14rebs 2blk

Andrea Bargnani
Friday against the Suns was a bizzarro night where I tweeted this. Loved Andrea’s performance, even though he only grabbed 4 boards (the team as a whole was doing a sub-par rebounding job). Nowitzki is going to be a tough check for Bargnani, since he’s a better rebounding version of himself. Still, I’m looking forward to watching this match-up since both were absent during the Raptor win earlier this season.23pts 6rebs 1blk

The Line

The gamblers have the Mavs as 5.5 point favourites with an over/under of 207.5. I just don’t see the Raptors getting that close. If you think we will see the same thing as the win earlier in the season, you have to realize a few things:

The Mavs without Nowitzki are a bunch of old guys who can’t score in the paint

Ed Davis put up the best game of his rookie season with 17pts 12rebs (made up for the lost Bargnani production)

The Mavs are currently on a streak of 15 wins in the their last 16 games as they gear up for the playoffs

This is going to be a totally different kind of game, and if the Raptors come out with the same energy as Friday, this game will be lost in the 2nd quarter.

]]>https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2011/02/27/gameday-toronto-raptors-vs-dallas-mavericks-february-27-2011/feed/31Beyond the Raptors: Dallas Maverickshttps://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/06/16/beyond-the-raptors-dallas-mavericks/
https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/06/16/beyond-the-raptors-dallas-mavericks/#commentsThu, 17 Jun 2010 02:56:02 +0000http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=18029Another week before the Raptors start a manic month or so of activity, so until then, we will talk a little ball about the Mavs, Dirk, Beaubois and Bosh (and maybe a lil Turk).

]]>The gossips claim that the Raptors have a deal worked out for Turkoglu that will be consummated on draft night, we can only imagine who that team could be (I have a feeling it will be either Philly or Charlotte). I can only speculate that
this move will serves two purposes:

1. Rid us of Turkoglu
2. Bring in a complimentary piece to Bosh

The fact of the matter is that Bosh wont be making a decision until he is allowed to talk to some teams, and see what they have to offer; at which point he will either sign on the dotted line, or give Colangelo his short list of teams he wants to play for.

Either way, unless we trade yet another lottery pick (and throw DeRozan in), I expect this trade to make the Raptors better in both the short/long run. Take that however you want, but we all have another week to go nuts on the ESPN trade machine.

I had a chance to talk to Rob Mahoney from The Two Man Game about the Mavericks, and what the f*ck happened.

Sam Holako: WTF happened???

Rob Mahoney: Well, that depends on who you ask. Talk to the Maverick faithful, and the team peaked too early; after riding a big winning streak following the Mavs’ acquisitions at the deadline, the team had faded going into the playoffs. Talk to the realists, and they’ll tell you of a Dallas team that never could quite get it together defensively, and lacked the offensive versatility to protect Dirk from aggressive coverage. Ask an extremist, and you’ll likely hear stories of how centuries-old prophecies as told by soothsayers around the globe foretold of Rodrigue Beaubois’ ascension, and Rick Carlisle’s stubborn denial of the rookie’s destiny led to an extended fourth quarter benching in the decisive Game 6 and a destruction of the natural order of the universe.

Needless to say, it’s all a bit complicated. Still, the easy part is that the team just wasn’t ready. They weren’t good enough on either side of the ball to get past San Antonio in the first round — much less a potential match-up with Phoenix or L.A. later in the playoffs — even if they fell just short in almost every loss.

SH: One thing I have admired about the Mavs/Cuban is that they have continually retooled via big moves in an effort to win a championship (Butler, Haywood, and Marion). However, I’m not so sure Carlisle was/is the right guy for the job (although I’m a big fan of his). You touched on his benching of Beausboise a little; while I’m not convinced he would have saved the season if played, I can’t help but think that specific event was symptomatic of a larger issue. Is it time to reduce Kids role on the Mavs and increase Patrices? Does Carlisle have what it takes to make this happen without things detiorating?

RM: I really do think he can make it happen. Carlisle has shown a lot of flexibility during his time in Dallas (his reluctance to play Beaubois was the exception, not the rule), and that’s crucial. I mean, he benched Caron Butler in a playoff game. It was the right move, but the real question is how many coaches would even be willing to do that? That was a lot of salary left sitting on the bench and a former All-Star, but Caron was hurting the offense and Carlisle knew it.

Coaches need to be willing to play whichever players give the team the best chance to win, regardless of standing or reputation. Carlisle has shown that he’s willing to do that (except with Beaubois, apparently, but again that’s more a fluke), and he’ll continue to alter the rotation until he’s satisfied.

For what it’s worth, the Mavs — from Rick Carlisle to Mark Cuban to Donnie Nelson — have made it clear that Beaubois will have a bigger role next season, both playing off the ball as he did this past season and with more time as the back-up point. That probably won’t indicate much of a drop-off for Kidd, but the team may be more conservative with Jason’s minutes in the regular season.

SH: What’s this kids upside? Not very often you hear people scream about benching a late first round pick in favour of Jason Kidd.

RM: It’s incredibly high. The physical tools are all there — the speed, the length, the athleticism, the body control — and once he finds ways to properly utilize all of his gifts, he’s going to be a force. In the meantime, he was only second on the team in points per minute, led all rookies in PER and true shooting percentage, and shot 50-40-80 from the field. He doesn’t have a ton of experience, but at the same time I wouldn’t call him “raw”; his instincts serve him well. He’s coming along at the defensive end as well, but he played defense like a rookie. I expect a little more nuance in his defensive performances in year two, with a better understanding of opposing players’ tendencies, how he fits into a team defensive concept, etc.

I see no reason why Beaubois can’t be a star in this league for a long time. All of the components are there, it just takes time and a little opportunity.

SH: An issue that has split Raptor fans into two groups is the notion of Chris Bosh as a max player. Some of us, myself included, feel that he is an elite level player in the league who is worthy of a max contract (in terms of his worth on a championship team, I feel he’s more a Pippen than a Jordan), while others violently disagree. I want to ask that question of you, can a championship team be built around Nowitzki at this stage of his career? Is he a max player? Would the Mavs be better off dealing him and rebuilding around Beaubois?

RM: For the record, I think Bosh is a max player and I’ll defend that notion to the grave. Similarly, Nowitzki is still a max player, even if he may take a lower-than-max deal to help out the team.

You can still build an offense around Dirk Nowitzki, it’s just not the easiest thing in the world. There is no template to follow, because Dirk isn’t a traditional low-post player or a super-quick point guard or an athletic swingman. The league has never seen anything quite like Dirk; there have been players with similar skills, but no one that combines Nowitzki’s unique versatility, talent, and efficiency. He just needs the right components around him on both ends of the court to secure a title, and he’s never really had that.

Even in 2006 when the Mavs went to the Finals, the thing that really put Dallas over the top was Devin Harris’ ability to penetrate. Harris is the only post-Nash point guard the Mavs have had that could really attract defensive attention. Jason Kidd, for all of his talents, doesn’t command coverage. He doesn’t penetrate particularly well, and he’s not forcing defenses to adapt to his movements. Similarly, Erick Dampier has been the most successful center of the Nowitzki era. I appreciate Damp more than anyone, but if the Mavs had a superior center in the last few seasons, Dirk could have a title to his name.

He still could, but it’s going to take some kind of adjustment. The guys currently on the roster — Jason Terry, Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, et al — are talented, but probably not talented enough nor do they possess ideal skill sets. It doesn’t take a monumental change, but Dallas needs a few upgrades, and given that, Nowitzki could still be competitive for a title. There may be a day when the Mavs would be wise to build around Beaubois, but it’s not today. Or tomorrow. And probably not the day after that, either.

SH: Nowitzki isn’t getting any younger, but he still has a few years at an elite level in him. Cuban has shown the chops to make things happen, and has continually loaded up year after year with players that have put together great regular season teams, but failed in the playoffs. What players should he be targeting this offseason to compliment Dirk; or is trading Dirk the only answer?

RM: If I had my pick of any potential acquisition, I’d shoot for Dwyane Wade. Not exactly a great center that can anchor a defense, but he’s an elite scorer, a terrific playmaker, and an excellent defender that fills a positional need. That said, Wade won’t be giving the Mavs the time of day, which makes some of the other players that could be on the market this summer — guys like Joe Johnson and Andre Iguodala — far more reasonable targets.

Bosh is a bit of an odd fit in Dallas. Offensively, he’d be a dream, but I’m skeptical of Bosh and Dirk’s ability to coexist on defense. That said, he’s a hell of a player, and if the Mavs had a shot of nabbing him, they’d do their best to take that shot.

That shot would be something like Erick Dampier (or really, his instantly expiring contract that wouldn’t cost Toronto a penny), Rodrigue Beaubois, and DeShawn Stevenson’s expiring contract. If the Mavs were particularly desperate, they could agree to take on Hedo Turkoglu in exchange for Caron Butler, but that would sour the deal rather substantially in my opinion. It’s not a knockout for the Raps, but I honestly don’t see Toronto getting any return value better than Beaubois; he’s young, talented, and inexpensive, and would really only come with the additional cost of Stevenson’s one-year $4.15 million deal. Beaubois may not be Chris Bosh, but he’d be an excellent young piece that when paired with DeMar DeRozan, could give Toronto the most athletic (and one of the most exciting) backcourts in the league.

—

Damn interesting proposal if you ask me. Have to say, if Bosh said he didn’t want to play for the Raptors anymore, and the Mavs agreed to take Turkoglu in a S&T, gotta say this deal gives us lots of options in the short and long term.

]]>https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/06/16/beyond-the-raptors-dallas-mavericks/feed/42Raptors Beat the Mighty Mavs 110-88https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/01/18/raptors-beat-the-mighty-mavs-112-104/
https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/01/18/raptors-beat-the-mighty-mavs-112-104/#commentsMon, 18 Jan 2010 14:55:28 +0000http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=14194Happy days!! Raptors 110, Mavs 88 – Box In the best performance we’ve seen all year, the Raptors finally lived up to their potential in a blowout win over the Mavs. It’s sometimes frustrating when the Raptors lose to the likes of the Bobcats/Pacers, then beat the Spurs/Mavs, because you wonder why they couldn’t beat […]

In the best performance we’ve seen all year, the Raptors finally lived up to their potential in a blowout win over the Mavs. It’s sometimes frustrating when the Raptors lose to the likes of the Bobcats/Pacers, then beat the Spurs/Mavs, because you wonder why they couldn’t beat both. It speaks to a team that seems to be a player, or adjustment, or something, away from really putting it together, and making a serious run. What it also does is frustrate many of us because this team isn’t living up to its potential, perceived or otherwise. For now, we are happy because the win in New York was solidified with an even bigger win at home to the Mavs.

I actually had zero expectations for this game aside from trying to keep it as close as possible, and not roll over. The first quarter was just that. The Raptors shot a horrible 36% from the field, but they held the Mavs to 43.5% led by a great defensive effort by DeRozan. The kid really stepped up and challenged Howard to do something, and Howard didn’t. DeMar stayed with him off of screens, contesting jumpers and taking away the lane. The two times Howard shook free, Bosh was there at the rim to block him, and Turkoglu rotated over to steal the ball from him. This defensive tone that DeRozan set early stayed through the whole game, with tight rotations and great help on the weak side.

The second quarter saw Calderon, Wright and Johnson bring a lot of energy off the bench. We forget how effective Jose is as a backup, it’s like he’s a totally different person. The last couple games, he has brought exactly what was missing from the starting unit. He penetrated, found shooters, grabbed a rebound, played tough defense (2 steals) and hit the shots he needed to. All his shots were timely. I’m gushing I know, but in 12min, he had 9pts 6ast 2stls on 4-6 shooting. I alluded to Jason Terry being the perfect 6th man in the league, but if Calderon keeps up this kind of play, he is right up there.

The second quarter spark also saw Turkoglu wake up and contribute with 5pts 4ast in the frame. All said and done, the Raptors took the lead in the 2nd quarter by simply sharing the ball, and making that extra pass that resulted in a quality shot. On 15 made field goals (13 were great looks from the perimeter), 11 were assisted. That’s ridiculous. Antoine Wright even went 2-3, of which all three shots didn’t make me want to bang my head against the wall. On the defensive end, the Raptors kept the Mavs scoreless for 3 minutes during an early quarter 6-0 that gave them the lead that they never gave up for the rest of the game.

Bargnani stepped up his defense on Nowitzki in the second quarter. Contesting, blocking out, and challenging Dirk on every possession. All said and done, Dirk was limited to 4pts on 2-4 shooting in the 2nd. This was huge in keeping the Mavs in check since Terry dropped 10 in the quarter, on 5-7 shooting – dude hit everything, it was very frustrating because they were tough shots. All said and done, the Raptors took a 54-41 lead into the half.

The Raptors offense started the 2nd half stagnant. The ball wasn’t being moved around, bad jumpers were being forced, and the Mavs started with a 6-0 run to cut the lead to 8. Bosh and Bargnani went to work, running the high-low post, assisting on each others buckets – Colangelo’s wet dream. DeRozan hit back-to-back jumpers that pushed the lead back up to 12. The Raptors had another defensive stand that spurred a 7-0 run, allowing 2 contested shots that had no chance in falling. Had Terry not hit a ridiculously deep three towards the end of the quarter, the Raps would have entered the 4th up 19.

Amir blocked Marion at the rim to start the 4th. The Raptors held the Mavs scoreless for 3 minutes, and that was the game. The Raptors shot the ball better from the floor, moved the ball around better, defended better, protected better, got to the line and converted more, it was a masterful display.

This is the most spread out player impact chart I’ve seen this season. Bosh, Bargnani, Turkoglu and Amir Johnson stand out, but when you consider what Jack and Calderon did as a duo, it was a five-headed monster that stepped up and snatched this from the Mavs. I have to say, I’m a proud Raptor fan today, awesome way to start the week.