FAQ

Why do you need our personal data and who has access to it?

In our survey we will not use any private user data from Facebook or Twitter directly or indirectly, only the data the users provide us in the survey itself (these include state, the three voting questions, and the optional questions regarding age, education and political preferences). We will have no knowledge of voter choices or preferences of any individual user, nor will we be able to find that out.

We use Facebook and Twitter primarily because of their friendship networks. We use the information on your friends (Facebook), followers and who you follow (Twitter) to uncover how electoral patterns evolve and spread through friendship networks within and across different groups. The data will be only available to Oraclum, and no private information will ever be publicly available.

Your individual voting choices as well as any information you convey will not be visible to other users. Users will only have access to the anonymous averages of all responses.

Why do you need a Facebook/Twitter account to vote in the survey?

There are two reasons we use Facebook and Twitter as our main sources of survey participants. First, they enable access to friendship/follower networks, and second, they ensure that each person votes only once. There can be fake or institutional profiles out there, but we have a mechanism that eliminates the responses coming from such profiles (the benefit of having access to one’s friendship network is one mechanism of doing so).

What about the privacy of data?

All data are anonymous and are saved on a server using an encrypted safe link. We openly provide the link to our code so that each user can see this for themselves. For further details please see our privacy policy.

Do you favour any political option, or are a part of any media enterprise?

No. Both Oraclum and our partners UX Passion are non-partisan companies, and are not a part of any larger organization, nor are they financially dependent on anyone. Oraclum and UX Passion employees do not support any political party in United States, nor do they favour any of the candidates.

What happens after I access your application?

After you grant us permission to use the data your provide us, the system will present you with the survey which you may now fill out. After you have responded to at least the four mandatory questions the system will show you the voting statistics of all your friends who have also filled out the survey, as well as the aggregate results of all survey respondents. For more detail see our terms and conditions.

How will you predict the results of the election?

This is an online poll in its experimental phase, meaning that its results do not necessarily correspond to actual voter preferences. For more detail on our methodology see the following clarification of the logic behind the BASON method.

About the project

This survey is part of a project of experimental electoral forecasting done by Oraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd and UX Passion. Given the experimental nature of the survey there are no immediate financial interests that Oraclum I.S. Ltd. stands to gain from it. The survey is financed by Oraclum I.S. and, at its current stage, is not profit-oriented. For more details about us see here. Follow us on our blog, our website, our Twitter, and our Facebook.

About us

Oraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd is a non-partisan start-up based in Cambridge, interested in experimental testing of forecasting models on real-life electoral data. We aim to use the Bayesian Adjusted Social Network (BASON) Survey of US voters to try and pick out the most precise prediction method in light of the upcoming US Presidential elections.