Newsflash: the fade is a shitty play call

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You idiots are only looking at one side of the equation... The fade route is a low percentage play for BOTH sides. I.e., it has low completion percentage for the offense, but it's also incredibly unlikely to be intercepted.

It makes sense if you have a big WR who can go up and get it and you're worried about your QB throwing a pick, or you don't think your run blocking is good enough to convert.

It's a very common audible out of a run play in the red-zone. If the defense has a clear numbers advantage in the box, you audible to the fade, and if it's incomplete that's still better than a turnover or tackle for loss.

At that point you get time to make a new play-call based on what the defense is showing. Maybe you try a different run play, or you call a pass or play-action pass if you think they're going to stack the box agan.

You get out of an unfavourable look against your run play, plus you get a 1/3 chance at a TD, maybe higher depending on your QB/WR duo. If it's first down, that's a hell of a lot better than wasting a timeout in most situations.

Good point, except these numbers are for 2-point conversions specifically. You're better off calling a TO in this scenario.

Yeah, only an idiot would call a fade on a 2-point coversion, unless you have supreme confidence in your QB and #1 WR, and get a favorable one-on-one matchup with that WR. Even then it's probably not the best play. I just roll my eyes at all the armchair experts who think the fade is a stupid play that never makes sense, regardless of situation, ignoring context when looking at stats.

My favorite fade story is Pitt, when Wannstedt was there, running a fade on 4th and goal at the end of game. It fell incomplete but there was a penalty on the defense so Pitt got another shot. They ran another fade. It went incomplete. They lost.

My favorite fade story is Pitt, when Wannstedt was there, running a fade on 4th and goal at the end of game. It fell incomplete but there was a penalty on the defense so Pitt got another shot. They ran another fade. It went incomplete. They lost.

Yeah that's a no balls move. Of course the other option is to run a more traditional and riskier pass play and if it goes wrong get shit about it for the rest of your life, see: Carroll, Pete & Bevell, Darrell.

In the NFL, the only time a run adds to win probability or expected points is in short yardage (<3 yards to go). So a two point conversion is literally one of the few times running the ball actually makes sense, and yet NFL coaches overwhelmingly call passes.

In the NFL, the only time a run adds to win probability or expected points is in short yardage (<3 yards to go). So a two point conversion is literally one of the few times running the ball actually makes sense, and yet NFL coaches overwhelmingly call passes.