Motor City Bengals: Tigers can't strike out in this year's draft

May 7, 2013

Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski / Jarrad Henderson/DFP

Written by

John Verburg

Detroit Free Press Special Writer

John Verburg is the editor of the Detroit Tigers blog Motor City Bengals. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the Detroit Free Press nor its writers.

On June 6, Major League Baseball will hold its annual amateur players draft. For the first time since 2009, the Tigers will have a first round pick (they took pitcher Jacob Turner that year). In fact, the Tigers will have three of the first 58 picks, giving them an opportunity to inject some much-needed talent into a minor league system, considered one of the worst in baseball.

Make no mistake, despite the Tigersí success at the big league level, itís important for the team to get these picks right. Why? Itís about sustaining success as an organization five years down the road.

The Tigersí farm system is bereft of players who project to be above average major leaguers. In fact, Nick Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Bruce Rondon are about it for above average talent. Even those three are still questionable at this point. Part of the reason for a thin talent pool is because of a multitude of trades made by general manager Dave Dombrowski. Guys like Doug Fister, Omar Infante, Anibal Sanchez and Jhonny Peralta were acquired from trades that depleted the minor leagues. The Tigers have also given up first-round picks in favor of signing the likes of Jose Valverde, Victor Martinez and Prince Fielder. Lastly, add to that a dash of poor drafting, and itís easy to see why there is a dearth of talent down on the farm.

The biggest area of concern has to be the pitching. While the major league staff is still relatively young, there is an extreme drop off in talent once one gets beyond sixth starter Drew Smyly. If the Tigers have trouble retaining Fister and Max Scherzer in the next couple years because of finances, there is nobody to step in other than Smyly.

But baseball drafts arenít like other drafts. Typically, teams donít pay much attention to need. Itís about the best player available ... that will sign for the money the teams are willing to spend on that particular pick, of course. And with the new slot bonus system, the Tigers canít massively overspend like they have in the past (though itís been a while since theyíve done that). This season, the Tigers have approximately $6.5 million to spend on their first 11 picks. That might sound like a lot, but when half of it that could be spent on the first two to three, it diminishes quickly.

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The slot system carries some intrigue with it concerning the Tigers. Last year, the Tigers had the second lowest bonus pool total available, so there wasnít much strategy involved. They had to take players that were willing to sign for slot. It will be interesting to see this year if they front load the bonus pool money to their first three or four picks and go cheap the rest of the way to stay within the slotted amount without penalty.

Thatís the strategy I would take.

The 2013 draft is considered weak by normal draft standards, leaving the number of guys that could make an impact more sparse. It doesnít make sense to save money for an eighth rounder when that pick is an incredible long shot to make the big leagues anyway. The success rates drop off drastically after the first couple rounds, so spend that money early and get three or four guys that have some major league potential.

The Tigers definitely need some impact talent, even if it is to dangle as trade bait at a later date. So while we are cheering on the big league club to hopefully make another playoff appearance, donít forget the importance of June 6. The future of the Tigers depends on it.