The outsiders will probably still exist: Worf, maybe Data, the Delta Quadrant characters who don't matter, Odo... but that's about it. No real reason to do anything with them, either. Just fun to speculate.

Worf, probably not. For all we know, some of his ancestors were on one of the many Klingon ships destroyed by Nero. The Klingon Empire should be facing some pretty big changes.

Data (or a similar android) has a decent chance though. Soong was possibly already born before Nero made too many waves.

Set Harth wrote:

Picard's parents could easily still create Picard, and so forth.

That is assuming Picard's parents are even born yet.

Yes, the mother has a set amount of eggs, but a man's sperm varies so greatly. The chances of anyone from TNG being born is like winning the lottery two or three times.

Abrams' time travel is no less deterministic than what we've seen before.

Time travel ideas usually weren't too consistent throughout Trek. But the best stories ("The City on the Edge of Forever", "Yesterday's Enterprise", Star Trek: First Contact, "All Good Things", "Year of Hell", "The Visitor", etc) usually involved a more deterministic point of view.

These stories didn't involve putting characters in for any fated reasons against odds. At least not as drastically.