Donald Trump

From the moment Jeb Bush announced his Presidential bid, boosted by a stack of mega-donors, the former Florida Governor became red-hot favourite on the betting markets to be the Republican candidate. However as in the last two elections, the early money for this market increasingly looks like proving a poor guide.

The simple explanation is that, despite spending a fortune on advertising in the key early primary states, Bush has totally failed to make headway. Instead, the momentum remains with Rubio, Ben Carson and Donald Trump.

Today’s news cycle is particularly grim. Of all the candidates, he was the one with no money worries whatsoever, yet it has emerged that Bush is cutting staff and salaries. while throwing the kitchen sink at the early states. He needs to, stuck around 5% in Iowa and 10% in pivotal New Hampshire.

Now, it must be re-iterated that these are still early days in a long race. Bush said on Fox News yesterday that he wouldn’t pull out and has the resources to stay in for the long haul. Raising money is going to be harder, though, with former protege Rubio particularly looking a better investment.

Jeb looks like the past, and would probably have been the candidate if running four years ago, relatively fresh off his term in Florida. He’s been out of front-line politics for a long time now though, and the torch may have been passed to the younger man, at least among Florida donors and perhaps the wider ‘mainstream’ wing of the party. The Bush/Rubio exchanges will be a highlight of next week’s CNBC debate.

Is there any hope of a comeback? History shows it can. At this stage eight years ago, for example, John McCain was all but out of the race, yet fought back to win the nomination on a shoestring. Nevertheless, I’m betting against it.

Thus far, while Donald Trump’s bid to be the Republican Nominee has dominated the headlines, polls, tone and narrative of that race, betting markets have generally remained sceptical.

It is all froth, driven by a media seeking viewers and fundamentally unreliable polls based on name recognition, so the theory goes. I’m broadly sticking with that analysis for now, but must acknowledge how good the last 24 hours or so have been for him.

First the polls. Today’s Washington Post national poll puts him way out in front for the nomination, on 32%, ten points up on Ben Carson and 22 on market favourite Marco Rubio. This follows on from leads of 3, 5 and 10% in three polls yesterday. In New Hampshire, he leads by 7 and 12% in two surveys today.

The most significant thing about those national polls is not Trump’s share, but the distribution of support amongst his rivals. Instead of the new 2.5% cut off point whittling the field ahead of next week’s CNBC debate, opposition to the front-runner will remain chaotically divided. Ten candidates are set to appear on the main stage, minus the already withdrawn Scott Walker.

On the evidence of the two previous debates, this helps Trump. Everyone will remember his digs at rivals. Everyone will remember the opponent that hits back most effectively – Carly Fiorina last time. The rest will be largely forgotten.

Lest we forget, Walker was initially a frontline contender. Two anonymous debate performances – that owed as much to airtime and the choices of moderators than bad answers – collapsed his poll ratings and forced him out.

Jeb Bush and Rubio, who might have hoped mainstream rivals Chris Christie and John Kasich would be relegated to the minor debate, have cause for concern. All urgently need to win New Hampshire and cannot afford the mainstream, non-Trump vote to be split four ways. Five including Fiorina.

Finally, all the Republican candidates may be breathing a sigh of relief after Joe Biden’s decision not to run. Many polls have suggested the VP would be their most dangerous rival. Instead, they will face a slightly damaged Hillary Clinton or an unknown socialist quantity in Bernie Sanders.

At the time of writing, any pro-Trump market effects are limited. He remains around 14% for the Nomination, 7% for the Presidency. However many more days like this and we may all need to reconsider our early anti-Trump assumptions!

1) Cruz is well-positioned in the polls for when the field whittles down

The picture regarding who will be the Republican Nominee remains as unclear as ever, with 15 candidates still in the race. The crowded field has worked to the advantage of outsiders, whose pitch is that bit more interesting and newsworthy than conventional politicians. Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina took out over 50% of the latest Fox News poll.

For the other 12, just being noticed has been a challenge and very soon, around half that number are going to find it impossible. For the next CNBC debate, the main podium will be restricted to candidates averaging over 2.5% among six pollsters, between 17th September and 21st October.

Only six are comfortably above the threshold, and the likes of Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Chris Christie and John Kasich are all flirting with relegation to the minor stage. At 10% in that latest Fox survey, Cruz has no worries and will be one of the six that are likely to dominate thereafter.

With an enormous election war chest, winning record and instant name recognition, Jeb Bush has been red-hot favourite on Betfair for the Republican Nomination ever since declaring. Paul Krishnamurty, however, believes his bid is ultimately doomed, for the following seven reasons.

1) Early favourites in recent GOP contests have a terrible record

Betting markets have an outstanding record of predicting winners when it comes to the closing stages of elections, but early favourites of leadership contests are notoriously unreliable. Particularly in the Republican Party’s case.

With Donald Trump on the wane and Jeb Bush stalling in the race to be Republican nominee, political gamblers have been scratching around for better-priced alternatives. Down the field outsiders Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, recommended here at around 1.5% apiece for the Presidency, are both rated roughly twice as likely now. However, the most sustained and substantial move has been for Marco Rubio.

Buoyed by two impressive debate performances and some encouraging underlying polls, the 44 year-old Florida Senator is now rated 23% likely to win his party’s nomination, still behind but closing on Bush at 31%. Rubio is now rated 10% for the Presidency, up from 2.5% going into the first debate.

My view is that he’s probably the strongest, most electable candidate and a likely beneficiary should the non-political trio of Trump, Fiorina and Carson fall away as the primaries near. However that is not yet certain and factored into the odds.

At some stage I’ll likely add him to the portfolio but, for now, there’s easier money to be made having cheap bets at big odds, with a view towards trading for a profit when their ratings improve.

From the early market reaction there’s no question about who ‘won’ last night’s second Republican debate. In line with almost universal good reviews, Carly Fiorina is storming up the markets.

The former CEO of Hewlett Packard is now trading at [11.0] or 9% for the nomination, [30.0] (3%) for the Presidency. Those ratings have doubled since the hours before the debate, when I tipped her at [60.0] along with Ben Carson at [34.0].

With the field due to whittle down considerably soon, I reckon there’s still plenty of mileage in both bets and have no plans to lay back yet. The market has so far been dominated by the dubiously short-priced Jeb Bush and the coverage by Donald Trump. Bush remains poor value and last night may prove to be the moment Trump’s bandwagon begun to fade.

It wasn’t that Trump had a terrible debate, more that others stole the show. While others made their mark, Trump’s night will be best remembered for being owned by Fiorina’s cool response to his snide remarks about her appearance. Republicans on social media generally seemed delighted that someone had finally taken The Donald down.

Carson’s performance was also ordinary but his recent poll numbers, challenging Trump nationally and ahead in today’s Michigan survey, mean he remains a front-tier candidate. He’s particularly enthusing evangelicals – a voting block that earned Mike Huckabee second place in 2008, and whose support is pivotal in Iowa.

Fiorina on the other hand looks the ideal mainstream Republican candidate. She’s shone in both debates, has a good personal story to tell, isn’t damaged by failures in office and the media seem to love her. Just as Trump’s celebrity has boosted media interest and TV ratings for this contest, so will a confident, intelligent woman from the outside world, in a contest against ten men.

In the short-term, I’m holding these positions in expectation of lesser candidates falling away. I expect both Carson and Fiorina to be among the leading handful when we get to Iowa and New Hampshire, at much shorter odds.

A good start, but the new leader’s fundamental problems were clear to see

It is my confident prediction that more people watched this afternoon’s PMQs than ever before. Compared to the usual, mostly ignored, often derided piece of theatre, Jeremy Corbyn’s debut was genuinely a hot topic of conversation this morning.

People from outside the political class, who would never usually consider giving half an hour of their day to watch Parliament, were fascinated to see this outsider politician they’ve read and heard so much about in recent weeks. A man portrayed relentlessly by Conservatives as a ‘threat to national security’, who had inspired 300,000 people to join the Labour Party, yet remained viscerally unpopular with dozens of his own MPs. A man with the lowest expenses claims of any MP. A man who doesn’t sing the national anthem!

Americans will understand the phenomenon with regard to Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Outsiders are all the rage these days, with the popularity of professional politicians and the old ways of doing business at an all-time low.

Having already won his party’s nomination, Corbyn now has to deliver. The purpose of an outsider is to change the game and, without jumping to premature conclusions, he may just have changed it in one small respect.

Corbyn’s leadership campaign stressed his unwillingness to get into personality politics or trade insults. Much of his popularity stemmed from being a straight-talking, authentic, polite human being. He promised a new ‘Peoples Question Time’ in which he would pose questions from the general public directly to the PM, and that’s exactly what he did.

Cameron welcomed this plan for a polite, serious debate and duly answered, without trading insults or trying to score overt political points. It was nothing like previous PMQs, and everyone on the BBC’s panel were really enthusiastic about the new tone. After weeks of constantly brutal media coverage and a morning dominated by the national anthem row, Corbyn will be pleased he managed to change the subject into something positive.

Once the leaders’ exchange was over, however, the parties reverted to type and this later spell explains why so many believe Corbyn is unelectable. First a Tory question about renewing Trident offered Cameron the chance to contrast his enthusiasm for it with Corbyn’s opposition to nuclear weapons, thus reinforcing his ‘threat to national security’ spin.

Another question from the DUP’s Nigel Dodds will have made Labour supporters wince, condemning their new Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell’s call 13 years ago for IRA members to be ‘honoured’. Like Corbyn’s various foreign policy musings over a long career, these charges will be repeated ad nauseum in the years ahead.

In these ‘security’ areas at least, there are only votes to be lost and it very much remains to be seen whether Corbyn can survive as Labour leader until the next election in 2020. I’m already on the case, looking for value bets to replace him and will be offering some names very soon!

Thanks in no small part to Donald Trump, the 2016 Election campaign has become big news even earlier than usual. 11 candidates, (out of 16 left in the field), will debate in California tomorrow, suggesting the most open race in history.

The fundamental challenge facing 14 of them is simply being heard, in order to build the national name recognition required to compete with household names like Trump and longstanding favourite Jeb Bush. On current prices, this pair are taking out nearly 50% of the book.

I’ve backed both at 66/1 for the Presidency, Carson for double the stake, in expectation of cashing out for profit in the near future. My instinct is that at least one of them, possibly both, will trade down to single figures for the nomination at some stage, at which time I’ll look to cover the position and lock in a profit.

As with all my positions throughout this long election campaign, keep an eye out for updated advice as the race progresses.