Thursday, May 28, 2009

The Quebec provincial wing of the site, CentVingtCinq, has been updated with the latest polls from CROP and Léger Marketing. In short, the Parti Québécois and Liberals are dead-locked with 59 seats apiece in the 125-seat National Assembly, with the ADQ way behind at 5 seats and Québec Solidaire with 2.

At the federal level, there are some things to take from the latest polling numbers in Quebec. The PQ has been polling at around 40%, which is about as well as the Bloc Quebecois has been doing. The ADQ has been polling a little under 10%, which is a little worse than the Conservatives have been doing.

The coincidence is even stronger in my two projections. Here, the Bloc Quebecois is projected to have 37.9% of the vote in Quebec, while on CentVingtCinq the Parti Quebecois is projected to have 37.8% support. The two parties are sister organisations. Most Bloc members are also PQ members, and with such a close similarity in popular support one has to believe their voters are also shared.

Here, the Conservatives are projected to have 14.6% support in Quebec, only slightly higher than the ADQ's projected 12.0%. These two organisations are not sister organisations like the BQ and PQ, but they share a lot of the same voters. While one can't directly equate ADQ and CPC support in Quebec, it is probably a good indication of what each party's floor and ceiling is at the moment. The Conservatives probably can't go lower than the 8% to 9% the ADQ is currently polling at, and the ADQ probably can't go higher than the 15% or so the Conservatives are currently polling at.

It is more difficult to find similarities between federal Liberal and provincial Liberal support. While they share many of the same voters, the parties aren't affiliated and there is a lot of vote swapping between the PLQ and all of the federalist parties in Ottawa. The NDP also don't have a counterpart in Quebec, though Québec Solidaire is probably as close as it gets. However, QS is a sovereigntist party which muddies the waters some.

Green Party and Parti Vert votes definitely mirror each other. The Green Party of Canada is projected to have 4.7% support in Quebec while the Green Party of Quebec is projected to have 5.1% support. The PVQ has proven to be very successful, comparatively speaking, in anglophone ridings of Montreal. Voters there feel they have no other option if they dislike what the provincial Liberals are doing. The Green Party of Canada would do well to exploit the success the PVQ has had in this region.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

As you can see, on the right side of the page a new chart has been added. This tracks Canadians' answer to who would make the best Prime Minister. I've only included Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff, and Jack Layton because they are the three front runners in this question. Gilles Duceppe can't become Prime Minister and Elizabeth May is way too far from that possibility to track her rating.

I merely take the last three polls, average them out, and get a result. I'll update it as often as "Best PM" polls are released.

This sort of makes the Léger Marketing poll earlier this week an outlier. This poll would translate into the following number of seats:

Bloc Quebecois - 48Liberals - 21Conservatives - 5New Democrats - 1

The short-term projection has only changed slightly, reverting back to the 114 CPC, 128 LPC, and 48 BQ total. The long-term projection hasn't changed at all, with only a few tenths of a point being exchanged in Quebec. For that reason, I won't update the projection information on this site just yet. With the dearth of national polls this month, I imagine a few will be released in the next couple days anyway.

Unless a new poll is released tomorrow, however, I will update the CentVingtCinq projection.

The pollsters don't want to give me any rest today. A new poll from Angus-Reid Strategies was released today, taking a look at the political situation in Quebec. They also polled people concerning the new attack ads aimed at Michael Ignatieff. I invite you to check out the link to see their conclusions.

As for the numbers in Quebec, they don't quite match up with the latest Léger Marketing and Ipsos-Reid numbers:

Their polling size (800 people) makes this as significant as the Léger Marketing poll, but the polling dates don't overlap. So, it is possible that voters' opinions shifted from the Liberals to the Bloc between May 13-17 (Léger) and May 19-20 (Angus-Reid).

The one-poll and five-poll projections indicate that the Conservative slide might be over, at least for now. As Chantal Hébert stated on her blog, this is a "yellow light" to the Liberals.

The long-term seat projections have not changed overall, though the Conservatives have lost a seat in the North to the Liberals but gained one in Ontario. The national popular vote has changed as follows:

Conservatives +0.1New Democrats -0.1Greens -0.1

The Liberals and Bloc are unchanged. In Ontario and Quebec, the Conservatives have gained 0.1 in Ontario but lost 0.1 points in Quebec. The Liberals have lost 0.1 in Ontario but gained 0.2 in Quebec. The New Democrats are down 0.2 in Ontario and 0.1 in Quebec. The Bloc has lost 0.1 as well. The Greens are unchanged.

This poll is definitely something to worry about for the Liberals. The Tories aren't dead yet, and if another poll confirms the change I would have to strongly caution the Liberals against forcing an election. It also goes without saying that neither the Bloc nor the NDP have anything to gain - and lots to lose - in a new election.

Ipsos-Reid released a new poll today, taken between May 20 and May 24 and including 1,000 interviews. I don't have the complete details yet, so for now I'll just report on what I have. The projection will be updated once I have the information.

I'm sure some of you look at the projection and some of the recent polls and wonder why the Conservatives still have the lead I give them. This latest poll demonstrates why it is better to react slowly to polling trends.

This poll was taken in an atmosphere of Conservative attack ads on Michael Ignatieff and the Mulroney inquiry. The national result:

Compared to what we've seen recently, this is a strong result for the Tories. They've gained two points on the last Ipsos-Reid poll while the Liberals have lost three.

Regionally, we have the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals in Ontario, 39%-37%. This bucks all of the recent trends, as the Conservatives have been in the low-to-mid-30s, while the Liberals have been over 40%.

In Quebec, the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois are tied at 36%. This result confirms how close the race is between the two parties in Quebec. The Conservatives have 14% support in the province, which has been a consistent trend since December.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are at 39% with the Liberals and NDP fighting it out for second at 27% and 24%, respectively. This is directly in line with recent trends. We see the same thing in the Prairies, where the Tories have a strong lead (55%) while the Liberals and NDP struggle for second (20% and 21%). In Alberta, not surprising, the Conservatives are way ahead of the Liberals, 57% to 21%.

One of the most surprising results is in Atlantic Canada. That this could happen here, however, is not a surprise because of the small polling samples. But the race is a lot closer than we've seen it lately, with the Conservatives at 34% to the Liberal 36%. The NDP is in third at 24%.

Hopefully I will have the full details soon, and will update accordingly.

This is an important poll, as Léger Marketing is pretty reliable and it is a large sample size. This is a good demonstration of a recent trend, that the Liberals are quickly becoming a serious challenger to the Bloc's leading position in Quebec. A few more polls like this will confirm that the Bloc has indeed dropped to second place.

As Le Devoir points out, 80% of the ridings in Quebec are decided by the francophone vote. Here is the francophone support totals:

This means that the Bloc is relatively safe in most of its ridings, though the Liberals have strong support as well. They will be able to challenge the Bloc in some of the ridings outside of the Outaouais and Montreal, but within those fortresses the Liberals will be safe. This also shows that the Conservatives aren't as strong as they have been in the Quebec City region, which is a francophone region.

This poll would result in the following seat holdings in Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 45Liberals - 25Conservatives - 3New Democrats - 2

The short-term projection hasn't changed as a result of this poll. The long-term projection has, however. The Conservatives have dropped to four seats in Quebec and 126 in total, while the Liberals have risen to 20 seats in Quebec and 111 in total. The popular vote in Quebec has changed as follows:

CentVingtCinq, the part of this site which makes Quebec provincial projections, will be updated within the next few days as Léger Marketing also released provincial polling results. They have the Liberals and Parti Quebecois tied at 40%, with the ADQ far behind at 8%.

Friday, May 22, 2009

I've been thinking about whether it is likely we'll ever see a majority government in the future. Decades from now, I'm sure, the political climate will be completely different. But in the short term, I have real doubts we'll see a majority government. Never before has there been four healthy parties, each with solid bases of support.

Prior to 1993, only three parties were able to win more than one or two seats: the Progressive Conservatives, Liberals, and New Democrats. The first two parties were strong enough that when they won elections, they'd win majorities. After 1993, the political scene splintered and five parties were able to win seats: Liberals, Progressive Conservatives, Reform/Canadian Alliance, New Democrats, and the Bloc Quebecois. The right was divided and the NDP weak, ensuring Liberal majorities.

But now we're back to four strong parties, and I have difficulty envisioning a situation where a majority government is possible. If it was going to happen, 2008 was the election. But we're in a political climate today where all four parties are reputable and competent enough that voters have several options if their usual party falters. In other electoral years, the disastrous Dion campaign would have resulted in a Conservative majority. But because the NDP has carved out for itself a strong niche, they took enough votes and seats from the Liberals to keep the Conservatives at bay. And the Bloc has such a monopoly on the seats in Quebec that today parties need to win 155 seats out of only 260 or so (60%), rather than the full 308.

I thought a little mathematical exercise could demonstrate how unlikely majority governments are in the future - barring, of course, an unexpected catastrophe for one of the parties.

First, let's look at the situation post-2004. The political climate today is now a "four-party system". Despite the presence of the Greens, they really aren't a factor since even in a stellar election campaign they don't seem capable of winning more than two or three seats. Since 2004 and the advent of the four party system, the "floors" of the various parties have been 99 for the Conservatives (2004), 77 for the Liberals (2008), 49 for the Bloc Quebecois (2008), and 19 for the New Democrats (2004). Considering that at least one independent has won in every election, we'll consider that the "Independent/Green" floor as well.

If the Liberals, Bloc, and NDP all repeat their worst results since 2004 and the advent of the four party system, the Opposition would still hold 146 seats. That means that the Conservatives, in a worst-case scenario for the other three parties, could win 162 seats. That is a margin of seven seats between majority and minority territory. That is not a big margin to work with, and it is difficult to imagine the Liberals repeating a worst-result-in-Confederation-history, which is what 77 seats represents. In this four party system, a Conservative majority is quite unlikely.

If the Conservatives, Bloc, and NDP all repeat their worst results since 2004, the Opposition would hold 168 seats - a majority. That means, in such a worst-case-scenario, the Liberals could win 140 seats. Looking at it from this angle, that makes a Liberal majority government virtually impossible.

Now, I know what you're thinking. While the Liberals probably will never dip below 77 seats, it is quite possible that the Conservatives, Bloc, and NDP could win fewer seats than their post-2004 floor. So let's bring that floor as far back as 1993.

Since the Conservative Party did not exist between 1993 and the 2004 election, it is difficult to find their floor. The Canadian Alliance and PCs had 78 seats in 2000 and 80 in 1997. They also only had 54 in 1993. It would be unfair to assign that 93 result as their floor, since the electoral support of those two parties was more than the sum of their parts. For this exercise, I'd have to choose the 1997 result as the Conservative floor. The Liberal floor remains at 77 from 2008. The Bloc Quebecois floor has to be 38 which they achieved in the 2000 election. That is really as low as it is possible to envision the Bloc going. The NDP won only 9 seats in 1993, though I feel their 13-seat result in 2000 makes more sense as a floor. But we'll use 9 anyway. And the Independents will remain at 1.

So, an absolutely worst case scenario in the event of a Conservative government would be an opposition of 125 seats. That leaves 183 to the Conservatives. That is still just a 28-seat margin, and considering how badly things would have to go for every other party, that is not as big a margin as it looks. For an absolutely worst case scenario in the event of a Liberal government, the opposition would still have 128 seats, leaving 180 to the Liberals, a margin of 25 seats.

It is difficult to use the floors from between 1993 and 2000 because having five competitive parties changes things significantly. For that reason, I think the last two scenarios are less likely. If we use the happy medium between the post-1993 and post-2004 scenarios, the Conservative margin in a best case scenario for them is 17.5 seats, while the Liberal margin is only five seats.

I think this exercise shows that it is very, very unlikely that majority governments are possible in the political climate we find ourselves in. For a majority government to happen, the Bloc has to drop to second place in Quebec, the NDP down to 10% or lower, and the Liberals or Conservatives below 30%. It is difficult to envision all of these events happening in one election.

So, that means we're condemned to minority governments, at least for the next decade or two. That suits me fine - more projections and polls to follow. Majority governments, for the politco, are boring.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Now that Strategic Counsel has uploaded the details of their May 10th poll, I've updated the projection. Since the poll did not have results from every region, I can't determine what this single poll translates into for seats. But, the short term projection has been changed. First, the popular vote with the change from the last short-term projection in brackets:

The long-term projection has also changed. The national popular vote is now a virtual tie. Here is the growth in national popular vote from last time:

Greens +0.2Liberals +0.1Bloc Quebecois -0.1Conservatives -0.2

The seat projection has changed, with the Conservatives and Liberals trading seats in Ontario. That brings the Conservatives down to 127 seats and the Liberals up to 110. Despite the close national result, the Conservatives are still strong enough regionally to maintain government, though at this point the second (Liberals) and fourth (NDP) parties would be able to outvote the Tories, translating to an Unstable Minority.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

As the detailed statistical tables contain polls stretching back to December 2008, it was becoming too large and Blogger was shrinking the image, making it difficult for people to read. As you can see, I've fixed that.

You might also notice that the projection results are different from those at the top of the page. That is because the result of the Strategic Counsel poll has been included. I was waiting for all of the information before updating, but I wanted to fix the problem of the unreadable tables.

Until all of the SC information is available, I won't be updating the projection at the top of the page.

Here are the rankings - to be constantly added to and updated - of the various polling firms in terms of their tendencies to favour one party over another. This does not necessarily equate to a deliberate bias, but instead is more reflective of the polling methods used.

As you can see, the list is not complete yet.

The following lists show each pollster's average variation from other polling firms. The numbers are the amount of percentage points a particular pollster favours or disfavours that particular party compared to other pollsters.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

This is a bit of an addendum to the previous post about Angus-Reid. In the future, when profiling a pollster, I will include this information.

I've tried to analyse whether a pollster tends to poll well for one party over another. Now, this is not necessarily a bias. In all likelihood, there is no bias at all. It is merely a reflection of the type of polling system each pollster uses. What I've done is compare a pollster's result to the average result of the other pollsters in a given month. I've limited the analysis to national, Ontario, and Quebec polls because they are large enough that differences can't solely be chalked up to margins of error.

Nationally, Angus-Reid has tended to poll best for the Conservatives. So far this year, Angus-Reid has polled the Conservatives 1.9 points higher than the average. Next on the list would be the Bloc Quebecois, which is polled 0.9 points higher. Then it is the NDP at 0.7 points higher. The Liberals are polled 1.9 points lower than the average, and the Greens 2.2 points lower.

In Ontario, again, Angus-Reid polls best for the Conservatives at 3.2 points higher than average. All other parties are polled lower than the average, the NDP at 0.4 points lower, the Greens at 2.0 points lower, and the Liberals at 2.5 points lower than the average result of the other pollsters.

In Quebec, only the Bloc Quebecois is polled higher than the average, at 2.7 points higher. The Conservatives are polled 0.6 points lower than the average, the NDP 1.1 points lower, the Liberals 1.3 points lower, and the Greens 1.5 points lower.

As more pollsters are analysed, it will be possible to show which pollsters are best for which parties. Looking at these numbers, Angus-Reid tends to be slightly more favourable to the Conservatives, but it is not a huge margin of difference.

NOTE: I am still waiting on the Ontario polling results for the NDP and Greens from the last Strategic Counsel poll. Thankfully, I was promised to be given the information today from a Globe and Mail reporter.

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Since no new poll is out and I'm still waiting on the full Ontario results in the latest Strategic Counsel poll, I thought we'd look at how individual polling firms have been tracking the trends. Since one would hope polling firms are consistent in the way they poll Canadians, the trends they show from poll to poll are a good demonstration of how parties are doing. When you take all of the polls from all firms together, you get a good indication of actual support. Looking at individual polls shows growth and decline.

So, I've decided to start with Angus Reid, which is my most heavily weighted polling firm. The chart below shows the trend in Canada as a whole, Ontario, and Quebec.

At the national level, there hasn't been very much movement. The Conservatives hit a high of 39% on January 15, and have since dropped to 33% in their latest poll on April 22. From that January poll, there has been a consistent decline of Tory support. However, Angus Reid has been far more conservative in tracking Liberal growth. Michael Ignatieff's party had 31% support on December 12, but that dropped to 29% on January 27. It has since risen to 33%. That is only a variation of four percentage points, as compared with the six-point variation the Conservatives have shown.

The NDP has maintained itself within a three point variation. Their support almost shows a bell curve, with a low 15% on December 12 rising to a high of 18% on January 27, and then dropping back to 15%. The Greens, the hardest party to track, also have a three point variation. They reached a high in Angus Reid polling on December 12 with 8%, dropped to 5% on January 15, and have since settled at between 6% and 7%.

Ontario has shown far greater variation, which is to be expected in smaller regions. The Conservatives, however, were relatively consistent in Angus Reid Ontario polling, maintaining itself at 42% and 41% between December 12 and January 27. The party has since dropped to 38% in the last two polls, which is still higher than most other firms have put them. Thus the Tories have had a variation of four points in Ontario.

The Liberals, on the other hand, have shown a variation of seven points, with a high of 40% on January 15 and a low of 33% on January 27, a great change in a matter of days. They then rose to 39% and first place in the province, but are currently at 35%. The NDP has also shown great variation, with lows of 12% on January 15 and March 11, but hit a high of 19% on January 27 and are currently at 17%. The chart clearly shows that for Angus Reid, the NDP and the Liberals directly split votes, since their trend lines are virtual mirror-images.

The Greens hit a high of 10% on March 11, twice as much as their 5% of January 15, but have since dropped to 7%.

The trend lines in Quebec show much more consistency. The Bloc Quebecois has remained on top, being at 38% and 40% over the last two polls, but dipping to 31% on January 27. The Liberals have shown a steady increase as the Conservative support drops, from 25% on January 15 to a high of 35% on April 22. The Conservatives have fallen away just as the Liberals have risen, maintain a 19% level in January but since dropping to a dismal 10%. The growth of six points for the Liberals between March and April are in line with the drop of six points for the Conservatives. The NDP has also done badly of late, dropping from a high of 17% in January 27 to a low of 6% in April. NDP support was highest when Bloc support was lowest, showing a voting similarity between the two social democratic parties. The Greens have been relatively consistent at 5%.

Compared to the other polling, it would seem that Angus Reid's system is more beneficial for the Conservatives than the Liberals. That isn't to say there is a bias in the system, after all, Angus Reid had the closest prediction in October. And the polling firm has been one of the stronger pollsters for the Liberals in Quebec.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

A new poll was released today by Strategic Counsel, taken between May 6 and May 10 and including 1,004 interviews. However, the details are not available from Strategic Counsel yet and the only information to be found is at the CTV and Globe and Mail websites. The information is virtually complete, I am just missing the NDP and Green results in Ontario. Until I have them, I won't be updating the projection. Nevertheless, here are the results:

This is a good result for the Liberals, but within the margin we've seen recently. This is a bad result for the Conservatives, but also within recent trends. This is a good result for the NDP, as they have recently been on the up-swing and it is good for them to be moving farther away from the 14% or lower range. The Green result is also very good. Strong results from them is a bit of a recent trend.

Within the range of what we've seen lately: strong Liberal result, Conservatives out of the picture.

ONTARIO

Liberals - 42%Conservatives - 32%

One of the wider gaps between the two parties that we've seen since the beginning of April.

WEST

Conservatives - 42%Liberals - 25%New Democrats - 19%Greens - 15%

Of course, "the West" is not included in the projection model. So, the best I can do for context is compare it to the last SC poll. In the West, that puts the Conservatives down four points, the Liberals up one, the Greens up four and the NDP unchanged.

Hopefully I will have the necessary information to update the projection before the end of the day. Check back later!

Monday, May 11, 2009

Another month has passed, and so it is time to take a look at how the parties polled over the entire month of April, and to compare that to March. There were six national polls in April, totaling 7,606 people polled in all. First, the national polling results with the change from March in brackets:

These numbers show that the Liberals had the best polling month, followed by the NDP and the Greens. The Bloc and Conservatives both had difficulties. The Liberals' support grew in all six regions of the country, while the NDP increased its support in four regions, while decreasing in two. The Greens had gains in five regions and losses in one, while the Conservatives lost support in all six regions and the Bloc in Quebec.

Friday, May 8, 2009

As I mentioned on Tuesday, Harris-Decima released a new poll. I have the details, and so I have updated the projection. The poll was taken between April 23 and May 3, and involved 2,026 interviews. For the results of the poll, see the preceding post or scroll to the bottom of the page.

First up, here is what the electoral results would be of this poll, with the difference from the most recent previous poll in brackets:

This poll would have given the Conservatives 60 seats west of Ontario, 37 seats in Ontario, none in Quebec, and seven in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals would have 24 seats in the West, 57 in Ontario, 23 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada. The NDP would have had eight seats in the West, 12 in Ontario, none in Quebec, and four in Atlantic Canada. The Greens would win their seat in Atlantic Canada.

The short-term projection taken from the last five polls has changed as well. First, the popular vote with difference from last update in brackets:

So, because the Liberals have been unable to bury the Conservatives in Ontario as of yet, they are still ahead in the long-term projection. But there is a trend and if the Liberals surpass the Conservatives nationally in the long-term projection, which they look to do soon, the projection will likely swing to the other side dramatically.

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Harris-Decima released a poll today, but only partial information from various media outlets is available so far. I'll update once Harris-Decima puts the full details on their website. In the meantime, here are the national results:

Good result for the Liberals, very bad result for the Conservatives, consistent (and not good) result for the NDP, and good result for the Greens. I look forward to seeing where that 11% has come from.

Relatively decent result for the Bloc, great result for the Liberals, horrible results for the Conservatives and New Democrats, and strong result for the Greens.

In Ontario:

Liberals - 40%Conservatives - 34%New Democrats - 15%Greens - 9%

Mostly consistent results here.

And British Columbia:

Conservatives - 32%Liberals - 25%New Democrats - 25%Greens - 14%

Bad for the Conservatives, good for everyone else.

So, nothing here that would make Ignatieff shy away from his stance on EI. The Liberals look to be in a good spot to win an election. But, the NDP and the Bloc look to lose some, though it is difficult to see exactly how much the Bloc could potentially gain from the Tory collapse, so one wonders how enthused they must be about going into an election. With these numbers, the Conservatives should be trying to avoid an election. They would do well to prey on the NDP and Bloc fears in order to do that.

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Nanos Research and Ipsos-Reid both released polls today. The Nanos poll was taken between April 25 and April 30, while the Ipsos-Reid poll was taken on April 29 and April 30. Both polls included 1,001 interviews.

Here are the national results from the two polls, Nanos first and Ipsos-Reid second:

Rarely do we see national polls from two polling firms so similar. There is a 3% margin of error in these two polls. A lot of the polling firms and the media usually use this to say that the two parties are in a "statistical tie". That is possible, but it also means that it is possible the 3-point lead between the two parties can turn into a 6-point lead.

In the long-term projection, the Conservatives have dropped one seat, in Ontario, to drop to 128 seats in all. The Liberals have also lost one seat, in British Columbia, to drop to 109. The Bloc remains steady, and the NDP benefits with a seat gain in British Columbia and Ontario, reaching 21 seats in all. The national popular vote has also changed:

In Ontario, the NDP and the Liberals have increased their support by 0.2 points, while the Conservatives are down 0.5.

The Conservatives have strong results in Western Canada in both of these polls. The Liberals have strong results in Central and Eastern Canada. Both parties look to have strong bases, and the battlefield will be in Ontario. Quebec is a write-off for the Tories, as are the Atlantic provinces. The Liberals will struggle to win any seats west of Ontario. The NDP's results nationally are low, dangerously so. But they did have good regional results in Atlantic Canada. The Bloc needs to start looking over its shoulders at the Liberals, who are only a few points behind.

Things are starting to solidfy, it seems. The story lines for the next election already look written.

Now, Ontario provincial politics aren't Ontario federal politics. But, these results closely mirror many of the federal polls we've seen lately. And it can't be denied that provincial politics have an influence at the federal level. If people aren't excited about the PCs in Ontario, it makes it harder for them to be excited about the CPC federally.

Details on the methodology of the poll aggregation and seat projections are available here and here. Methodology for the forecasting model used during election campaigns is available here.

Projections on this site are subject to the margins of error of the opinion polls included in the model, as well as the unpredictable nature of politics at the riding level. The degree of uncertainty in the projections is also reflected by the projections' high and low ranges, when noted.

ThreeHundredEight.com is a non-partisan site and is committed to reporting on polls responsibly.