Their hour come round at last?

The Liberal Democrats start their campaign riding high in the polls

WHILE Labour and the Conservatives began their election campaigns by squabbling about whether the Tories' timid tax proposals would mean the end of civilisation, the Liberal Democrats quietly got going too. Largely ignored by the bigger parties, Charles Kennedy, the Lib Dem leader, cheekily declared that his lot constituted “the real opposition”. His most distinctive offers are opposition to the Iraq war and support for a local income tax. The rest are a mix of Tory rhetoric (“freeing doctors and nurses from Whitehall meddling”) and Labour programmes (“more early years support and nursery school places”). This poses a problem for Labour and the Conservatives: should they go on the attack and risk giving the Lib Dems free publicity, or should they just ignore them?

So far, the big two are repeating their tactic of chuckling whenever the Lib Dems are mentioned, then rubbishing them with the air of a champion weightlifter asked to stand next to someone who stacks supermarket shelves for a living. This has worked in the past. But if the Lib Dems make further gains in the polls, they may have to try something else.

That's because the Lib Dems are well ahead of where they were at this stage in 2001, the last general election year. While the official, Conservative, opposition is down about one percentage point on where it was at the beginning of 2001, the Lib Dems are eight points up. The party's profile is such that Mr Kennedy was invited to appear on “EastEnders” over Christmas. In previous years the producers of a soap opera might not have bothered, since few viewers would have recognised him. Labour, meanwhile, is stuck at about 38%, 11 points down on where it was in 2001. “We're the only party going in the right direction in the polls,” grins Paul Rainger, the Lib Dems' campaign director.

If their poll numbers hold up, or even increase, that will provide headaches for both parties, but particularly for Labour. While the Lib Dems could be relied on in previous elections to take votes from the Conservatives, thus taking a little pressure off Labour in Labour/Tory marginals, this time they are more likely to steal votes from Labour too. Left-leaning middle class voters are particularly likely to find the Lib Dem opposition to the Iraq war attractive, especially as their daily papers—the Guardian and the Independent—are thinking about defecting too.

Success brings its own problems, though. The first is one of resources. The Lib Dems have about £3m to spend—about the same as they had in 2001—but it will be spread more thinly.

Second, there is plenty for the other parties to attack, should they choose to do so. Labour MPs in traditional Labour areas could wave around copies of “The Orange Book: Reclaiming Liberalism”, which contains a series of scary, market-friendly proposals for the public services written by prominent Lib Dems. The Tories could remind voters that they might lose out under the Lib Dem proposal for a local income tax. But in previous campaigns, the Lib Dems have gone up by around five points as the election nears. If that happens this time, it could get really interesting.