Maliki is seen with a narrow lead over the INA’s preferred candidate, Adel Abdulmahdi. This is perhaps expected as much of his State of Law bloc has been firmly behind him and is larger than the INA. But can he form a government?

That is less than clear, as much of the INA has already ruled out participating in a government giving Maliki a second term, and even a small portion of the State of Law bloc is opposing him. The Iraqiya bloc, which has the biggest plurality, has also ruled out working with Maliki.

Perhaps the most likely scenario however remains a hung parliament, as no faction appears to be able to muster a majority and even a myriad of foreign factions trying to shoehorn their own preferred alliances together hasn’t made much leeway.