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Some of those fears might be overstated. But some might be understated. Whatever the case, the reality is that there are many out there who are skeptical the big agreement will solve Europe’s debt woes.

That leads us back to TARP in 2008. One can legitimately argue many of the details in hindsight, including whether banks just took the cash as a giant windfall with no intention of ever lending and whether the government just bankrolled a spate of bigger banks buying up little one. But at the time, the move was part of a multifaceted effort to do something to prop up a battered global financial system.

It didn’t matter. Investors were focused on the doomsday scenario and barely even blinked Oct. 3 as the market continued its steady downward spiral.

So what’s with all the optimism over the euro zone debt deal, vague as it is? And more disturbing, what’s with the rally in anticipation of the deal from early October through today?

It just doesn’t add up.

One reason for the rally could be that the markets new TARP was too late or too small or too unfocused to soften the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, and now the markets are thrilled with a deft and comprehensive solution to the euro zone debt crisis.

If you believe that, then by all means continue to buy this rally — but as for me, I’m going short.