Paul Jones' Daily Cheltenham Festival Countdown Stat

Over the last four seasons, all eight winners of the Arkle Trophy and RSA Chase was a Pattern-race winner over hurdles. Arkle winners have long been classy hurdlers but it is only in recent seasons that the RSA Chase has started to be won by a horse capable of winning a graded race over timber on a regular basis. Therefore, if both the two-mile and three-mile novice chases at the Festival now have a strong joint pattern, the chances are that the new Grade Two Jewson Novice Chase over the intermediate distance of 2m5f could follow suit especially as there is no penalty structure in place for the race unlike when the Ryanair Chase (the established horse's equivalent) was first introduced as a Grade Two contest.

Today's best bets, by Will Hayler

It's only the backers of Summery Justice who won't be so pleased this morning, after Venetia Williams ruled her runner out at the final declaration stage after he was found to be lame in his box.

Temperatures have apparently been high enough to stop the snow from settling at Chepstow, and with the precipitation having since turned to rain, prospects are looking good and there is even some sunny weather forecast for tomorrow.

Fontwell's chase course has passed an inspection this morning, although conditions are set to be particularly testing at the track today, while racing at Wolverhampton this evening is also set to go ahead despite snow also reaching the course overnight, with subsequent rain having helped to clear the track.

Elhamri is a horse who doesn't find winning easy and one I always want to take on at a short price, so the consistent Sloop Johnb (4.10) must be a strong fancy in opposition at Dunstall Park.

Diriculous (5.40) wasn't suited by the way the race panned out on his latest start at Kempton, but that was a definite step in the right direction and if he returns to anything like his form of old, he will be winning again soon. Trainer Robert Mills is two from six at this track and I remember Mills' late father, Terry, once telling me that he only ever went north of the Watford Gap unless he thought he would have a winner.

Rigadin de Beauchene (3.30) comes from a strong staying family and today's trip in the heavy ground at Fontwell looks a positive, especially as he expected to improve for the switch to steeplechasing.

Tipping competition, day five

Ellandback had the lead yesterday and picked John Potts (5-1) but has been narrowly edged out at the top of the table, because superscouser had that one and also Lerida (11-2).

In celebration of racing's newly crowned Sports Personality of the Year, this week's prize is a copy of McCoy, the Racing Post's recently published record of the great jockey's career.

As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not yet joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today but you will start on -12.