Insurgency will end in Nigeria – Expert

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A Nigerian Researcher, Sani Umar, has assured that the six-year long insurgency in Nigeria will come to an end.

Speaking to journalists at a workshop on Research on Radicalization, Counter-Radicalization and De-radicalization in Nigeria, Mr. Umar said the crisis as complex as it may seem would end, although he added that the average length of time it might take to end is unpredictable.

“There’s a scientific literature on that,” Mr. Umar, a professor of history said. “It takes an average of 20 something years for most insurgencies to come to an end. The scientific evidence suggests that the impact of the ideology and religious ideas in particular is ambiguous at its best.”

He noted that different people were differently motivated towards radicalization through religious ideas, personal or collective grievance and a variety of many other mutations. The most important point, he said, was that these factors were a part of what should be a broader conditions.

Mr. Umar listed three major highlights of solution to radicalization in the society – a triage approach of – addressing the violent-radicalized group, find out the sources of their assistance, ceasefire approach and disarming them while avoiding impunity through the use of law; the non-violent and the non-radicalised group.

The workshop was organized by the Nigeria Stability and Reconciliation Programme, Office of the National Security Adviser and Nigerian Researchers Network.

The research was conducted by the Nigeria Research Network of the Oxford University UK and the Development Research and Project Centre in Kano.

The research findings which focused on economy, social processes, ideological and factors of radicalization among others is expected to contribute to the development of knowledge on the activities of radicalized groups in Nigeria – Jamaatu Ahlis-Sunna Liddaawati Wal Jihad, commonly known as the Boko Haram.

Also speaking, Rauf Mustapha said, “Some people say the problem is poverty, others say no its due to hate speech, I’m trying to show how we can go beyond this deadlock and disaggregate what the issues are, so that we can begin to see where the real problems are.”

Stating that clearly, radicalization was a bit of both poverty and religious or hate speeches, Mr. Mustapha, also a professor said, in his paper, he focused on comparing the situation of insurgency in Nigeria with that of other societies.

In addition, Ukoha Ukiwo, the deputy programme manager, NSRP, said, “The studies provide detailed explanations, new findings and sound policy options that Nigerian government, security agencies, civil society and development partners interested in public security, conflict management and peace building need to consider in their responses to contemporary security challenges.”

The dissemination of the research findings targets key government functionaries, civil society including the media and development partners in Nigeria’s efforts towards peace and stability.

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