Those trendlines are pretty ancient (more than half a year old), yet little seems to have changed since last September. These numbers look quite good for incumbent Dem Steve Beshear, and in fact aren't too far off from PPP's late October survey. One note of caution, though, is that Braun's Kentucky polls were fairly favorable to Dems last cycle; their final KY-Sen numbers showed Rand Paul up seven (he won by 11.5).

Braun didn't test the GOP primary, but state Senate President David Williams (running on a ticket with the perfectly named Ag. Comm'r Richie Farmer) is widely considered to be the frontrunner. In an internal poll from last month, Williams' ticket took 47% to just 9% for teabagging businessman Phil Moffett and 10% for Jefferson Co. Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw, the only woman in the race. We haven't seen any other responsive internals which might contradict this one... though hope always springs eternal. Still, don't hold your breath for too long - the Hotline takes a long look at the many ways in which Moffett's candidacy differs from Paul's, and I'm inclined to agree with most of them. In particular, note that Paul himself says he won't endorse in the primary.

This poll also included a test of the Kentucky Attorney General's race, which gives us a good chance to check up on our old buddy Jack Conway:

Conway looks to have a very nice lead over Vulcan ambassador Hopkins County Attorney Todd P'Pool. P'Pool was more of a second choice after SoS Trey Grayson, who lost the 2010 GOP senate primary to (of course) Rand Paul), decided Harvard was a better fit for him than the Bluegrass State.

The problems of other governors somehow. I note a plurality in the poll believe Kentucky is headed in the right direction. A competitive race to be sure but looks at this early state like a 53-47 kind of result favoring the incumbent.

is that, unlike a Beebe or a Bredesen, he doesn't really have a unique personal appeal that transcends party. He's simply an old-fashioned conservative (put partisan) Democrat, the type that many folks here are still very willing to vote for.

Beshear, unlike Bredesen, is associated as a Democrat, which is good for the party.The Kentucky Democratic Party is one of the more functional parties in the South; it at least has been able to maintain a capable statewide apparatus. It continues to be able to recruit capable candidates and stay competitive in most regards with the Kentucky Republican Party outside of its Congressional seats.

The KDP county affiliates are still run as actual functioning organizations, rather than social gatherings for a small number of activists and old-time establishment figures. I've seen rural counties continue to have party activities in operation down to the precinct level - something unseen in TN for example outside of the urban areas. This has kept more people (esp. young professionals) engaged in the party, thus the county parties are better organized, have better leadership, and recruit better candidates for office. New generations of capable Democrats as a consequence have been sustained in Kentucky and thus the reason why the KDP has a constant bench of credible candidates to run for legislative and statewide offices.

On the other hand, Kentucky has not seen the demographic change seen in other states, so the majority of voters still have the generational ties to the KDP - which has not been shaken due to the strongly conservative tilt of the party on social issues and populist economic platform. In addition, the relatively low African-American population, and its concentration in a few urban areas, has not allowed the racial issues to be as big of wedge issue to be used against the KDP as in other Southern states.

Even in the small rural county where I live the local DP is fairly organized and not lacking in candidates. Dem registration is not falling off a cliff, even if may Dems here are conservative. That sort of local strength has kept the state party strong.

Still able to maintain the old coalitions (except at the Prez level), except unlike in KY, the WV Republican Party is a joke that only exists to worship at the altar of Barry Goldwater and the Moore family.

It's kind of funny, it's a somewhat common name around here, but most people are weirded out by it. I've known several P'Pools all my life, but I can definitely see how people who've never seen it would find it a really odd name.

it might as well fit in this race. How safe is an incumbent, with 100% name ID, who polls under 50% against foes with much lower name IDs. A ten point lead is nice but I still think 48% is less then 50%.

rather under 50% for an incumbent means you will draw interest, attention and money to your race. You look at a state like VA where I suspect Warner-Allen 2014 would have Mark V at over 50% while Webb-Allen was competitive. Its a guide for, as you said, that the race is not over.

If the poll 8 months out was 55-34 then it might be time to move onto another race. 48-38 means its time to rumble.

Sometimes, a pollster doesn't "push" voters and so you get something likr 48-29. Now, is the incumbent who got 48 really in trouble? Absolutely not. The pollster might have just wanted to gin up controversy by showing the incumbent under 50%. Heck, even here the pollster could've pushed voters a little more and gotten over 50% for Beshear.

Now, since the separation between the two candidates is only 10%, I'd say that Beshear is favored, but it's not completely in the bag.

Beshear's actually running a few points stronger than I would have guessed. His social conservatism and friendliness to coal are keeping him fairly popular across the spectrum, but the fact that David Williams is the best the GOP could drum up doesn't really hurt.

P'Pool looks like he's going to be the epic failure that I expected. His numbers could rise a bit if he gets his name out there, but he has basically no chance of winning.

but he didn't run on his own. He hitched his wagon to Williams. That was a huge mistake for him and the GOP, I think. Nobody serious emerged after the Williams/Farmer ticket was announced, and that was that.

Conway could never quite close the gap, and I agree he probably couldn't have won in the end given the climate. But he seemed to stay in range of Paul until Aqua Buddha, then his polling collapsed, if I remember rightly?

Elaine Walker (the appointed incumbent) doesn't have any glaring flaws and I think she'd be an okay candidate, but Allison Lundergan Grimes seems to have all the state heavy hitters in her corner (other than Beshear, of course). I think they'd both be favored against Bill Johnson, though I guess if pressed I'd lean toward Grimes.

That's the main reason I prefer Grimes- she's young, and I think she could have a bright future. It's impressive the way the establishment (most of it anyway) coalesced around her (though her father was a farmer KDP Chair). I definitely see some parallels with last year's Senate primary, with Walker being Mongiardo and Grimes Conway (although interestingly Dr. Dan is one of Grimes' main supporters).

it's nice to know there are Democrats to draw upon for candidates in states like Kentucky. I doubt she's liberal enough to satisfy some, but depending on how far to the left she is, she could be an intriguing national candidate. She's certainly young enough that she can slowly climb up the ladder if need be, and she's seriously attractive. She's better looking than most of the fermale candidates talked up for national office, and while I could just be talking for myself, I find her twang utterly charming.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?