The EIU view

Alyaksandar Lukashenka won a fifth presidential term in 2015. In 2016 the EU lifted sanctions on Belarusian officials. Belarus needs external funding, but is reluctant to introduce the structural reforms required for an IMF loan. Thus, Russia's financial support will remain crucial. A political crackdown in March 2017 has hindered rapprochement with the West. Real GDP recovered in 2017-18 from a sharp contraction in 2015-16, and growth will continue in 2019-21, albeit at a modest pace.