Mansfield (*) (Key Seat)

(*) - The party status of this electorate has changed. See notes on redistribution below.

MP

Ian Walker (LNP) has held this seat since 2012, though on the new boundaries the seat is now notionally Labor held. Walker is Shadow Attorney-General and Shadow Minister for Justice and Planning.

Profile

The electorate of Mansfield covers the string of outer south-east Brisbane suburbs north of the Pacific Motorway and west of the Gateway Motorway, plus rural areas to the east as far as the boundary of Brisbane City Council. Suburbs include Mansfield, Wishart, Upper Mount Gravatt, Mount Gravatt East, Mackenzie, Rochedale, parts of Mount Gravatt and Carindale, plus more rural Burbank to the east. Covers 70 square kilometres. (Map)

Redistribution

The electorate has gained Mount Gravatt East from Greenslopes, lost parts of Eight Mile Plains north of the Pacific Motorway to Toohey, and lost Sheldon to Springwood. An LNP seat with a margin of just 0.5% at the 2015 election, the new boundaries convert Mansfield into a notional Labor seat with a margin of 0.8%.

Background

Mansfield was first contested at the 1972 election when it was won by the Liberal Party's Bill Kaus. During the 1983 Coalition split Kaus lost Liberal endorsement and switched to the National Party and was re-elected in 1983 to help the Nationals achieved majority government in their own right. Kaus retired in 1986 to be succeeded by another National in Craig Sherrin.

Mansfield was gained for Labor by Laurel Power on the election of the Goss government in 1989, but she was defeated by Liberal Frank Carroll at the 1995 election. Mansfield was one of the seats that Labor lost in 1995 over a planned second Gold Coast motorway, controversy caused by the plan being for a tollway and the proposed route running through a koala habitat.

After one term in Liberal hands, Labor's Phil Reeves re-gained Mansfield at the 1998 election. His narrow 83 vote margin encouraged defeated Liberal MP Frank Carroll to challenge the result in the Court of Disputed Returns where the court agreed with Carroll's challenge that mis-leading how-to-vote cards had been handed out by the Labor Party to confuse One Nation voters. However, the court ruled that the how-to-votes were correctly authorised and therefore not illegal under electoral law. Rules on how-to-vote cards have since been tightened.

Reeves was easily re-elected at subsequent elections, though Mansfield returned to being a marginal seat after the 2009 election. A swing of 15.5% then delivered Mansfield to the LNP's Ian Walker as the Labor Party was swept from office at the 2012 election.

Walker was re-elected narrowly in 2015, the swing against him of 10.6% below the average across Brisbane. He may have been defeated on Green preferences had full preferential voting been in force.

Walker faces an added challenge at the 2017 election, needing to incease his vote further with the redistribution tipping Mansfield on to the Labor side of the electoral ledger.

Past Election Results

Year

Winning Party

1972

LIB

1974

LIB

1977

LIB

1980

LIB

1983

NAT

1986

NAT

1989

ALP

1992

ALP

1995

LIB

1998

ALP

2001

ALP

2004

ALP

2006

ALP

2009

ALP

2012

LNP

2015

LNP

Coloured tab indicates seat won by a party forming government

Polling

A Newspoll published in The Australian on 18 November reported first preferences of Labor 40%, LNP 37%, One Nation 16%, Greens 7%, producing a two-party preferred of Labor 52% LNP 48%, a swing of around 1% to Labor.

Changing Electoral Boundaries

2017 Ballot Paper (4 Candidates)

Candidate Name

Party

WALKER, Ian

LNP

BELL, Barbara

The Greens

MCMILLAN, Corrine

Australian Labor Party

SYMES, Neil

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

Candidates

Ian Walker

LNP

Walker studied law at the University of Queensland, studying politics at the same time as Wayne Swan and Peter Beattie. In 1976 he joined legal firm Norton Rose, becoming a partner in 1984 He was Managing Partner of the Brisbane Office and before his election headed the firm's Australian Government Practice. Walker has been a member of the Liberal Party and subsequently the LNP for four decades and was President of the Queensland Young Liberals in 1979. He was appointed Assistant Minister for Planning Reform on the election of the Newman government, being appointed Minister for Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts in February 2013. In opposition he initially served as Shadow Attorney-General and Shadow Minister for Justice, Industrial Relations and Arts, becoming Shadow Attorney-General and Shadow Minister for Justice and Planning when Tim Nicholls became LNP Leader.

Barbara Bell

The Greens

Bell is a science graduate from the Universityof Queensland and holds qualifications in arts and physiotherapy from Sydney University. She is also a qualified Feldenkrais practitioner and has worked as a teacher, recreation officer, artist and physiotherapist across the public and private sector as well as in her own business. As director and president of the Rotary Club of Toowong, she organised international and local community projects. She has represented Queensland and Tasmania in interstate sport as well as the Australian Universities team in softball, and has been president of a number of sports associations

Corrine McMillan

Australian Labor Party

McMillan is Principal of Cavendish Road State High School and has had a 22 year career in teaching and education. She is also a member of the local Community Policing Board and the Board of the Mount Gravatt Show Grounds. She was also a 2013 Queensland College of Teachers Excellence in Leadership Award winner and a recipient of the 2014 Australian Council of Educational Leadership Fellowship Award.

Neil Symes

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

28 year-old Symes grew up ilocally in Wishart and later attended Griffith University where he graduated with a double degree in Criminology and Human Services, majoring in Child Protection and Family Studies. After university he worked at the Acacia Ridge and Districts Community Centre in Brisbane's South West as a community engagement officer with the Indigenous and African migrant communities. He was the LNP's surprise winner in the traditionally safe Labor seat of Lytton at the 2012 election, but was easily defeated in 2015 as the electoral pendulum returned to a more normal position. He is one of deveral former LNP MPs from 2012-15 to have defected to One Nation.