Company Blog

Our losing bet on Tim Means at UFC Fight Night 125 last weekend derailed a strong winning streak that we had built up since the beginning of the year. Means did not look as sharp as he usually does on a night where almost all the non-Brazilians looked much flatter than usual. Despite his lackluster performance I still feel like he did enough to win, but unfortunately, the judges did not agree. This is especially disappointing because it was a big 5 unit bet and the vast majority of media members scored the fight in favor of Tim Means:

Leading up to UFC Fight Night 125 I spent most of the week in the Chat Room telling you guys that I thought it would be a bad event for Live Betting. Instead, we ended up banking another huge profit. UFC Fight Night 125 turned out to be one of our biggest winning nights in a long time. This is especially surprising because we didn’t place a single Live Bet until we were more than halfway through the card:

Initially, I thought that UFC 221 would be a good card for betting, but after finishing my main card research, I am not so sure. I am hoping that the prelims will present us with some good opportunities, but I am also conscious of the fact that we see much more variance and more unpredictable outcomes on the big PPV events. For some reason we more commonly see fighters underperform on the PPV cards, so I will need to feel extra confident in a specific fighter’s chances of winning before I pull the trigger on them.

Last weekend’s UFC on FOX 27 event was bad for betting, so we kept things tight, banked a solid profit on Bellator 193 and turned our attention to Live Betting where we made an absolute killing [again]. Don’t forget that if you’re a VIP Member, you can get a free week of access to my Live Betting Tips. All you need to do is email me at info@mmabettingtips.com to let me know when you’d like to take advantage of this offer.

Even if you live in a country like the United States where you can only Live Bet in between rounds, I urge you to give my Live Betting Tips a try. Our win rate is so high that you will still make money. You might not make as much as those of us who can bet during rounds, but you will definitely still make a good profit if you stick with us long term.

UFC Fight Night 125 looks very good for prefight betting, which means that I will have at least two rock-solid betting tips that should win easily. As ever I expect to make a killing in Live Betting.

So far we’ve done great in 2018, and I feel extremely confident that we can build on this with another strong set of results on Saturday night.

I spent a lot of time researching UFC on FOX 27, but no matter how hard I dug for Gold I couldn’t find anyone that I would feel confident betting on. UFC on FOX 27 is one of those events that is packed full of fighters who are inconsistent or reckless. You just never know what version of these fighters is going to show up and perform on fight night.

Bellator 193 has at least one rock solid opportunity to make money. We’ve been on a great run since the beginning of the year and I feel confident that we can add to that by banking another solid profit this weekend.

We’ve been grinding out solid profits over the last few weeks on our prefight bets, and as always, we’ve been absolutely crushing it in Live Betting. In the last 6 weeks, our Elite Members have made close to 50 units of profit. This is an insane set of results that I look forward growing into an even bigger amount of money, as we continue on a busy stretch of MMA that features a UFC event every single weekend for the next 7 consecutive weeks.

In my live commentary during UFC Fight Night 124 I talked at length about how I am implementing a new strategy in 2018 that I am hopeful will result in a massive improvement in our prefight betting results. Over the last couple of weeks, this strategy has helped us go 3-1 on bets, and I am confident that it will enable us to bank another profit from our prefight bets for UFC 220.

2017 was a year where I noticed the bookies tightening up their odds considerably, but UFC 219 appears to be a throwback to the good old days because the card features several fighters with a good amount of value in their odds.

I usually like to keep things tight, but this is one of those events where we may end up with several bets. UFC 219 is one of those rare events that looks better for prefight betting than Live Betting. I believe we have a good chance of banking a solid profit on this one.

Inconsistent performances over the last few weeks from Hisaki Kato, Barb Honchak, and Jason Knight have prevented us from building on the solid profit that we earned in November. Losing bets like these are a reminder of why it’s so tough working in an industry where you have to rely on other people to show up and perform. It’s a stressful position to be in when the consistency of others determines your success as an individual. People are, by nature, unreliable. And we have learned this the hard way this month.

Kato, Honchak, and Knight were all solid bets based on prefight information, but no one could have predicted that each of them would have ended up underperforming to such a drastic degree.

It was tough to watch Barb Honchak abandon her strong wrestling that had helped her achieve so much success throughout her career. Instead, she decided to kickbox with Lauren Murphy and didn’t shoot for a single takedown in the entire 15-minute matchup. This resulted in the fight being much closer than it needed to be and she lost a razor close split decision. Then last weekend I was blown away by what we saw from Jason Knight. In the past, he has looked strong, aggressive and confident, but against Gabriel Benitez, at UFC Fight Night 123 he looked weak, lost and insecure. This was especially difficult to watch since Benitez was easily taken down and controlled on the ground in his last fight against Enrique Barzola, a grappler who is nowhere near the level of Jason Knight. Out of all the losses we have suffered this month, Hisaki Kato was the most difficult to digest as he chose to abandon his aggressive, pressure-based style of fighting in favor of walking around the Bellator cage doing absolutely nothing.

In situations like this, it is important to remember that fighters are human; they are not robots. I am also human, and we all have bad days and make mistakes.

We have killed it in Live Betting this year, but I am sure that there have been times where you have been frustrated with me for making bad decisions. I promise you that I have never intentionally made a bad betting decision, but tiredness, stress, pressure, and fatigue has an impact on my performance just like it affects fighter performances. For this reason, I try not to be too judgemental or get too frustrated when fighters do not show up and perform to their full potential. Afterall, we are all human, and we can’t always be at our best.

Our solid betting results over the last 4 years are a reminder to all of us that our results will go up and down, but if we keep making good decisions, we will consistently make money over time.

I am optimistic that we can get things back on track and end December with a profit because the next two UFC events look incredible for betting. I see multiple solid opportunities for making money on UFC on FOX 26 and I also see solid opportunities on UFC 219, which takes place in a couple of weeks.

I am also confident that we will break our target of earning 100 units of profit this year in Live Betting. Right now we are incredibly close to reaching this target having already earned almost 95 units of profit this year. I am extremely confident that we will break through the +100 unit profit target over the next couple of weeks.

UFC Fight Night 123 is a card packed full of fighters young in their UFC careers or fighters making their UFC debuts. We often see fight cards with this structure taking place in Europe and Asia, but we rarely see them in the United States.

This type of event will be a challenge for bookies and myself because we will both have to spend a lot of time familiarizing ourselves with the athletes competing at UFC Fight Night 123. I promise you that I will work extremely hard to hunt for gold and identify solid prefight betting opportunities.

I will also be working extremely hard to learn as much as I can about each of these fighters so that we can use this knowledge to make money in Live Betting.

Please leave a comment at the bottom of this post to let me know how you feel about my betting tips for UFC Fight Night 123.