Unemployment could take another four years to fall to pre-recession levels

New analysis by the TUC shows that it could take nearly four years to get unemployment in Britain back down to its pre-recession level. The TUC study, which analyses the rate at which unemployment increased between January 2008 and July 2012 and the rate at it which decreased between January 2012 and July 2012, shows that even if current trends continue it will take three years and nine months for Britain’s jobless total to fall to pre-crash levels.

The analysis shows the extent of the fall in unemployment over 2012 across nations and regions of the UK. Between January 2012 and July 2012 unemployment fell by 117,000 across Britain. Between the start of the recession and January 2012 it rose by 990,000. This means that unemployment still has to fall by 873,000 to return to its pre-recession level.

Unemployment Levels – 16 and above

Region

Jan 2008 (000’s)

Jan 2012 (000’s)

Difference Jan 2008 – Jan 2012 (000’s)

July 2012 (000’s)

Difference Jan 2012- July 2012(000’s)

East Midlands

127

189

+62

180

-9

East of England

135

204

+69

206

+2

London

273

416

+143

380

-36

North East

74

144

+70

129

-15

North West

201

326

+125

292

-34

South East

179

283

+104

281

-2

South West

99

178

+79

158

-20

West Midlands

162

237

+75

233

-4

Yorkshire/Humber

138

247

+109

253

+6

England

1,387

2,226

+839

2,112

-114

Scotland

131

218

+87

222

+4

Wales

68

131

+63

125

-6

Britain

1,585

2,575

+990

2,458

-117

Source: Office for National Statistics

The research also shows that while there have been modest falls in unemployment in some parts of the country since the turn of the year, in other areas joblessness has continued to rise.

In Yorkshire and the Humber, the East of England and Scotland unemployment is still rising and is higher now than it was in January 2012, while in other areas it has fallen.

The TUC findings also reveal that even in parts of Britain where the jobs market has picked up, it is still likely to take years to repair the damage caused by the financial crisis and government spending cuts.

In the West Midlands, for example, the unemployment rate shot up by almost three percentage points from 6.0 to 8.9 % between January 2008 and January 2012, and has only fallen by a third (0.3) of a percentage point between January 2012 and July 2012.

Analysis of unemployment rates in the regions shows us the variation in the regional unemployment picture.

Unemployment rate for people aged 16 and above- Region

Jan 2008

Jan 2012

Jan 2008 – Jan 2012

July 2012

Jan 2012- July 2012

East Midlands

5.6

8.2

+2.6

7.8

-0.4%

East of England

4.6

6.6

+2.0

6.6

0.0

London

6.8

10.0

+3.2

8.9

-1.1

North East

6.0

11.1

+5.1

9.9

-1.2

North West

6.0

9.5

+3.5

8.4

-1.1

South East

4.1

6.3

+2.2

6.3

0.0

South West

3.7

6.6

+2.9

5.8

-0.8

West Midlands

6.0

8.9

+2.9

8.6

-0.3

Yorkshire & Humber

5.3

9.2

+ 3.9

9.3

+0.1

Source: Office for National Statistics

Written by Anjum Klair

I work in the TUC’s Economics and Social Affairs Department. As a researcher I undertake labour market and economic analysis. As the Office Manager I am responsible for the management of the office which includes our conferences and seminars progra…