Iraq, once again, is facing a combination of acute shocks which the country is ill-prepared tomanage. The collapse in oil prices has considerably reduced budgetary revenues and reversed the fiscal surpluses accumulated since 2018.
... Exibir mais + COVID-19, and the lockdown measures needed to contain the pandemic have dealt a severe blow to economic activities especially the services sectors like transport, trade, banking and religious tourism, which constitute around half of the non-oil economy. The growing discontent over poor service delivery, rising corruption, and lack of jobs persists and is coupled with political impasse over the formation of a new government. Iraq’s pre-existing conditions going into this crisis limit its ability to manage and mitigate the socio-economic impact. A large dependency on oil revenues coupled with built-up budget rigiditieslimit Iraq’s fiscal space to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak and offer a stimulus package to re-start the economy. An undiversified economy, highly dependent on oil outcomes, as well as large presence of the state in economic and commercial activities, make it hard to create the needed private sector jobs for a predominantly young population. Furthermore, rampant corruption and weak governance and service delivery fueled large scale protests across the country calling for better public service delivery and jobs. As a result, all signs indicate that this multifaceted crisis will have a protracted impact. The outlook for Iraq, which was already negative prior to the COVID-19 shock, has markedly worsened since. Near-term economic growth will be subdued by low oil prices, a new OPEC agreement that has reduced oil production quotas, and unfavorable global and domestic conditions including disruptions from COVID-19 spread. As a result, the economy is projected to contract by 9.7 percent in 2020, down from a real GDP growth of 4.4 percent in 2019, with both oil and non-oil sectors contracting by 13 and 4.4 percent respectively. This special focus on digital economy (DE) highlights the importance of digital transformation for Iraq and the urgency behind it. Iraq’s economic condition was gradually improving following the deep economic strains of the last three years. However, the recent protests and unrest highlight the continued fragility of the country and the high priority of improving economic opportunities, particularly for youth. Leveraging the DE will help Iraq address some of its citizens’ concerns as well as accelerate the achievement of its development objectives.
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Iraq’s economy is gradually rebounding in 2019. GDP grew at 4.8 percent year on year in the first half of 2019, reversing the contraction observed in the past two years.
... Exibir mais + Growth comes mainly at the back of a rise in crude oil production (up 6.3 percent so far) and a rebound in non-oil economicactivity. The latter is underpinned by better rainfall and record agriculture yields, an improvement in electricity production, and an expansionary fiscal policy linked to growing wage bill and public consumption. Such positive developments are expected to bring the overall realGDP growth to an estimated 4.6 percent by end-2019, reversing a 0.6 percent contraction in 2018, with the non-oil economy likely to accelerate over 5 percent. Iraq’s economy has outperformed that of regional peers this year, but its population dynamics requires much higher growth to sustain current level of welfare. Despite recent improvements, Iraq continues to be in need of humanitarian assistance as more than 1.5 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are yet toreturn home. The Government of Iraq (GoI) maintains a policy of fiscal loosening based on expandingsubsidies and the public sector wage bill to ensure social peace amidst weak private sector job creation. In the absence of clear structural reforms and accelerated reconstruction efforts, growthrecovery in Iraq may be short-lived. This is particularly the case given the oil markets outlookwhere both prices and exports are expected to weaken given softer global demand and the uncertaintyaround the renewal of the OPEC agreement. Risks over the medium-term continue to be present both on the upstream and downstream. Lack of diversification and budget rigidities linked to the public sector wage bill reduce Iraq’s financial buffers and increase its vulnerability to external shocks. They also threaten to further delay reconstruction and outdo the recent positive government efforts especially in the electricity and agriculture sectors. Creating an adequate fiscal space for growth-enhancing programs will be key for diversification and job creation, without which the impressive increases in oil production will mean little for most Iraqis. With IDPs returning to their homes, there will be an increasing need to open economic opportunities and maintain flexible social assistance in these parts of the country.
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The economies of the GCC recovered in 2018 despite signs of weakness in the global economic outlook, reinforcing the perception that GCC economies' fortunes are still inextricably tied to oil.
... Exibir mais + Global growth slowed in 2018, as trade tensions be-tween the U.S. and China escalated, and goods trade slowed markedly. However, the steady increase in oil prices until October 2018 lifted growth in the GCC economies, from an average of -0.2 percent in 2017 to 2.0 percent in 2018. Two of the region's largest economies Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as well as Oman, emerged from recession in 2018. Growth outturns were driven by higher oil production in the second half of 2018, higher capital investment made possible due to the rise in oil revenues, and higher domestic demand. Fiscal and external balances improved, also tracking oil sector performance. GCC countries' fiscal balances improved in 2018, aided by the average increase in oil prices and progress with non-oil revenue mobilization in some countries. This allowed most countries to reduce fiscal deficits while actually increasing spending in some cases. Saudi Arabia, for example was able to halve its overall fiscal deficit in 2018 while simultaneously increasing total spending by 10.8 percent. Other countries also demonstrated procyclicality in fiscal policy, as spending increased across the GCC. Saudi Arabia and the UAE implemented a 5 percent VAT in early 2018, and Bahrain followed in early 2019. Oman introduced excise taxes on tobacco products, energy drinks and soft drinks in mid-2018 and increased corporate income tax.
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Iraq’s overall security situation has notably improved after the defeat of ISIS, but significant challenges lie ahead. Iraq has witnessed major political and security transitions in 2017 when Prime Minister Al-Abadi announced in December the victory over ISIS after a war that lasted three years.
... Exibir mais + The defeat of ISIS in Iraq left the government with the daunting tasks of rebuilding the country’s infrastructure, reconstruction of liberated areas, establishing security and stability,and providing services for the return of the displaced persons. On May 12, 2018 Iraq voted in parliamentary elections that delivered a win for a political bloc led by Moqtada al-Sadr, while PM Al-Abadi’s bloc, once seen as front runner, came in third. The ballots have been recounted after allegations of fraud and completed on August 8th without major change. On September 15th, Iraq’s parliament elected lawmaker Mohammed al-Halbousi as speaker, marking a major step towards establishing a new government. On October 2nd, Iraq’s parliament elected as president Barham Salih,who immediately named Adel Abdul Mahdi Prime Minister-designate, ending months of deadlock afterthe national election in May.
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The Iraq Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the previous six months and presents findings from recent World Bank work on Iraq, placing them in a longer-term and global context and assessing the implications of these developments and other changes in policy regarding the outlook for Iraq.
... Exibir mais + Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. Iraq is slowly emerging from the deep economic strains of the last three years, but progress in addressing the legacy of the war against ISIS and the accumulated development deficit from decades of conflict needs to be accelerated. Following the complete liberation from ISIS of all Iraq territory in December 2017, the Government of Iraq (GoI) is putting in place a comprehensive reconstruction package linking immediate stabilization to a long-term vision. The conflict with ISIS and widespread insecurity have created a major humanitarian and economic crisis. Iraq’s growth outlook is expected to improve thanks to a more favorable security environment and gradual pick up of investment for reconstruction, but absent structural reforms, higher growth would be short-lived. The outlook is also subject to significant social and political risks. Lingering political tensions, weak administrative capacity and widespread corruption continue to pose a downside risk and could further limit the government’s reform effort and its capacity to implement investment for reconstruction.
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The Arab Spring protest marked the beginning of a new era in the Syrian Arab Republic in 2011. Minor public protests began almost immediately after the initial protests in Cairo in January 2011.
... Exibir mais + The first large demonstrations began two months later in March, and the following months saw a process of escalation as demonstrations spread and increased in size within the country. By the summer of 2011, the armed conflict was already unfolding. Now in its sixth year, the Syrian conflict remains active and is bringing much pain and tragedy on a daily basis. This study provides an assessment of the conflict's impact on economic and social outcomes in Syria as of early 2017. Conflicts destroy tangible and intangible assets and leave deep marks on a country's social fabric, culture, and collective memories. The Syrian conflict has quickly become a particularly harsh example of this.
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The Arab Spring protest marked the beginning of a new era in the Syrian Arab Republic in 2011. Minor public protests began almost immediately after the initial protests in Cairo in January 2011.
... Exibir mais + The first large demonstrations began two months later in March, and the following months saw a process of escalation as demonstrations spread and increased in size within the country. By the summer of 2011, the armed conflict was already unfolding. Now in its sixth year, the Syrian conflict remains active and is bringing much pain and tragedy on a daily basis. This study provides an assessment of the conflict's impact on economic and social outcomes in Syria as of early 2017. Conflicts destroy tangible and intangible assets and leave deep marks on a country's social fabric, culture, and collective memories. The Syrian conflict has quickly become a particularly harsh example of this.
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The Arab Spring protest marked the beginning of a new era in the Syrian Arab Republic in 2011. Minor public protests began almost immediately after the initial protests in Cairo in January 2011.
... Exibir mais + The first large demonstrations began two months later in March, and the following months saw a process of escalation as demonstrations spread and increased in size within the country. By the summer of 2011, the armed conflict was already unfolding. Now in its sixth year, the Syrian conflict remains active and is bringing much pain and tragedy on a daily basis. This study provides an assessment of the conflict's impact on economic and social outcomes in Syria as of early 2017. Conflicts destroy tangible and intangible assets and leave deep marks on a country's social fabric, culture, and collective memories. The Syrian conflict has quickly become a particularly harsh example of this.
Exibir menos -

The Arab Spring protest marked the beginning of a new era in the Syrian Arab Republic in 2011. Minor public protests began almost immediately after the initial protests in Cairo in January 2011.
... Exibir mais + The first large demonstrations began two months later in March, and the following months saw a process of escalation as demonstrations spread and increased in size within the country. By the summer of 2011, the armed conflict was already unfolding. Now in its sixth year, the Syrian conflict remains active and is bringing much pain and tragedy on a daily basis. This study provides an assessment of the conflict's impact on economic and social outcomes in Syria as of early 2017. Conflicts destroy tangible and intangible assets and leave deep marks on a country's social fabric, culture, and collective memories. The Syrian conflict has quickly become a particularly harsh example of this.
Exibir menos -