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Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by rgslone

HRod is most likely the best proven contact hitter in the Reds' minor league system (although admittedly they don't have a lot of those). And contact hitters tend to be good OBP hitters, and the Reds' offensive is starving for that kind of hitter (actually more than one). I have little concern regarding his .244 avg in 51 post-injury games in AAA last season because of the fracutred hand/thumb injury. My only concern would be if HRod had some lingering effect from the injury - which I'm assuming won't be the case. Otherwise, he's a little young; but I think all the Reds development people are confident he can hit - and I mean probably hit right now in the big leagues for a better average than anybody on the team not named Votto or maybe Phillips and Hannigan. The biggest issue with HRod is that he doesn't have a defensive position for which he is ideally suited. His bat would traditionally fit better at 2B, but apparently 3B is a better defensive position for him (although he's apparently only adequate there). So, the defensive side of things may well hold him back from becoming an everyday starter, especially as early as next season - but I would bet that it won't be because of his offensive.

I'm not CONCERNED about his .244 average. I'm more concerned about the lack of experience above AA. I was responding to a post saying give him 150 games and he would hit .300+. I'm just saying temper the expectations a bit, that's all. I'm not saying he's crap, I'm not saying he'll never be a great on base guy. I'm saying not yet.

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

I'm not CONCERNED about his .244 average. I'm more concerned about the lack of experience above AA. I was responding to a post saying give him 150 games and he would hit .300+. I'm just saying temper the expectations a bit, that's all. I'm not saying he's crap, I'm not saying he'll never be a great on base guy. I'm saying not yet.

That was me who said give him 150 Games and he'll hit .300+... If the Reds can get a Lead Off Hitter like Bourn to go into Center, I'd be fine with Frazier in LF and H-Rod at 3B, and Phillips hitting 4th...

Now would I rather have J-Upton in LF and hitting 4th, with Frazier at 3B, Absolutely. But I think the Reds are only going to spend money on one player and IMO it has to be Bourn... So if the Reds sign a Free Agent like Bourn, they won't be adding anyone else...

It will totally be a disapointment if the Reds pay Ludwick even 7 Million per year when he really doesn't do what this team needs...

Might as well get the player that absolutely helps this team now...

I'd also like the Reds to acquire David Price too but thats for next week...

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

I'm not CONCERNED about his .244 average. I'm more concerned about the lack of experience above AA. I was responding to a post saying give him 150 games and he would hit .300+. I'm just saying temper the expectations a bit, that's all. I'm not saying he's crap, I'm not saying he'll never be a great on base guy. I'm saying not yet.

I understand. I'm not attacking or suggesting you don't think he can hit. I just like speculating about and hearing other opinions about what these guys might be able to do. For example, I really wish the reports about HRod's defense (including his arm) were better, or that he had 20-25 HR power to go with that contact ability. He dosesn't. But, if all that mattered was the ability to hit for average, I suspect that it's more likely than not that HRod could hit .290 or better over 150 games with the Reds next season. Of course, I can't say that unequivocally - that would be absurdly arrogant - but that's just my sense of it. Some guys can just wake up in the morning and hit wherever you put them (HRod) and some couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat (Stubbs).

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by Hondo

That was me who said give him 150 Games and he'll hit .300+... If the Reds can get a Lead Off Hitter like Bourn to go into Center, I'd be fine with Frazier in LF and H-Rod at 3B, and Phillips hitting 4th...

Now would I rather have J-Upton in LF and hitting 4th, with Frazier at 3B, Absolutely. But I think the Reds are only going to spend money on one player and IMO it has to be Bourn... So if the Reds sign a Free Agent like Bourn, they won't be adding anyone else...

It will totally be a disapointment if the Reds pay Ludwick even 7 Million per year when he really doesn't do what this team needs...

Might as well get the player that absolutely helps this team now...

I'd also like the Reds to acquire David Price too but thats for next week...

But Hondo, you're not saying you don't want Ludwig are you? I took it that you are just saying some good OBP at the top of the line-up is more important, right?

Also, another question for you - and Money, and anybody else: For $7M would you rather have Ludwig or Josh Willingham in LF next season?

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

I think HRod will have an impact on the 2013 Reds. He can hit and I truly believe the Reds brass thinks he'll hit in the majors. Remember he would've most likely been called up in May instead of Mike Costanzo if he wasn't injured. If Ludwick isn't resigned I could see him getting 100+ starts at 3b.

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

But Hondo, you're not saying you don't want Ludwig are you? I took it that you are just saying some good OBP at the top of the line-up is more important, right?

Also, another question for you - and Money, and anybody else: For $7M would you rather have Ludwig or Josh Willingham in LF next season?

If its one or the other, it's Willingham easy. But when you factor in what would go to Minny to acquire Willingham (likely Cingrani and Corcino?) and the $14M hes owed over the next two yrs, then I'd sign Ludwick.

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by Hondo

That was me who said give him 150 Games and he'll hit .300+... If the Reds can get a Lead Off Hitter like Bourn to go into Center, I'd be fine with Frazier in LF and H-Rod at 3B, and Phillips hitting 4th...

Now would I rather have J-Upton in LF and hitting 4th, with Frazier at 3B, Absolutely. But I think the Reds are only going to spend money on one player and IMO it has to be Bourn... So if the Reds sign a Free Agent like Bourn, they won't be adding anyone else...

It will totally be a disapointment if the Reds pay Ludwick even 7 Million per year when he really doesn't do what this team needs...

Might as well get the player that absolutely helps this team now...

I'd also like the Reds to acquire David Price too but thats for next week...

I agree. I said it earlier in this thread that I'm fine with HRod starting the season at 3rd if that means they acquired a stud to play CF or SS.

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by Eric the Red

If its one or the other, it's Willingham easy. But when you factor in what would go to Minny to acquire Willingham (likely Cingrani and Corcino?) and the $14M hes owed over the next two yrs, then I'd sign Ludwick.

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by Eric the Red

If its one or the other, it's Willingham easy. But when you factor in what would go to Minny to acquire Willingham (likely Cingrani and Corcino?) and the $14M hes owed over the next two yrs, then I'd sign Ludwick.

Do you think it's likely that Ludwig could get more than $7M/yr. for 2yrs?

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by rgslone

Do you think it's likely that Ludwig could get more than $7M/yr. for 2yrs?

I think so. Torri Hunter hit .313/.365/.451 2012 at the age of 37 and got $13M/yr for 2 yrs compared to Ludwick's .275/.346/.531 at the age of 34. Hunter will be 38 and Ludwick 35 both in July. Looking at last years LF crop of WIllingham, Cuddyer and Kubel and Hunter's early comp this offseason its favorable for Ludwick. Now, he doesn't have the track record of those others but his 2012 season will get him paid. Too many teams: Seattle, Atlanta, Phila, Boston, Texas, possibly SF need corner outfielders. Reds may be wise to invest elsewhere which will give HRod more of an opportunity.

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by Eric the Red

I think so. Torri Hunter hit .313/.365/.451 2012 at the age of 37 and got $13M/yr for 2 yrs compared to Ludwick's .275/.346/.531 at the age of 34. Hunter will be 38 and Ludwick 35 both in July. Looking at last years LF crop of WIllingham, Cuddyer and Kubel and Hunter's early comp this offseason its favorable for Ludwick. Now, he doesn't have the track record of those others but his 2012 season will get him paid. Too many teams: Seattle, Atlanta, Phila, Boston, Texas, possibly SF need corner outfielders. Reds may be wise to invest elsewhere which will give HRod more of an opportunity.

Good analysis of the situation. But I think the Reds are going to explore every other reasonable option before relying on a just turned 23 yr. old HRod to begin the season, don't you? Now, I suspect there is a good chance he's going to hit next season in AAA to a degree that the Reds will start thinking about how to incorporate him before the season ends. But, as I indicated earlier, don't you think that regardless of how fast his offense comes it's tougher finding the right spot to play him defensively. Fraizier is said to be the better defensive 3B; and, of course, Frazier's power plays better.

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

But Hondo, you're not saying you don't want Ludwig are you? I took it that you are just saying some good OBP at the top of the line-up is more important, right?

Also, another question for you - and Money, and anybody else: For $7M would you rather have Ludwig or Josh Willingham in LF next season?

I would rather have Ludwick then Willingham because Willingham costs prospects, but IMO, Signing Ludwick for even 7Million doesn't make sense...

The Reds are better off leaving Chapman as Closer, Saving the $7 Million on Ludwick (Which I think Ludwick will want $9M) and the money they are thinking about spending on Soria, Madson, Broxton, etc... and just sign Bourn...

Sure, it costs you a draft pick, but it fills the most glaring need when Frazier can play 3B or LF, and H-Rod can play 3B... I mean, this isn't even a debate when you put all the pieces together...

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by Hondo

I would rather have Ludwick then Willingham because Willingham costs prospects, but IMO, Signing Ludwick for even 7Million doesn't make sense...

The Reds are better off leaving Chapman as Closer, Saving the $7 Million on Ludwick (Which I think Ludwick will want $9M) and the money they are thinking about spending on Soria, Madson, Broxton, etc... and just sign Bourn...

Sure, it costs you a draft pick, but it fills the most glaring need when Frazier can play 3B or LF, and H-Rod can play 3B... I mean, this isn't even a debate when you put all the pieces together...

The piece you are forgetting is Bourn's age, and the amount of years his contract will probably be for. Also, even if Chapman is kept in the pen, you still need at least one of those bullpen arms you mentioned. Not to mention HRod has not shown that he can play at the big league level yet. That's not taking into account that the FO believes Hamilton will probably fill that CF/Leadoff role within the next year or two, making Bourn less a necessity as his contract would lag on. So I agree on their not being a debate once you put the pieces together.

Oh, and I almost forgot about that draft pick...

As far as Ludwick vs Willingham... can I pass on both? I'm fine with just finding some platoon mate for Stubbs in CF till Hamilton is hopefully ready (even if it's not till 2014), keeping Frazier at third, and finding a cheaper option in left. Maybe even trying Heisey there for an extended look. I always felt that the way he's been used has hurt his overall effectiveness.

Re: Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

Originally Posted by drowg14

The piece you are forgetting is Bourn's age, and the amount of years his contract will probably be for. Also, even if Chapman is kept in the pen, you still need at least one of those bullpen arms you mentioned. Not to mention HRod has not shown that he can play at the big league level yet. That's not taking into account that the FO believes Hamilton will probably fill that CF/Leadoff role within the next year or two, making Bourn less a necessity as his contract would lag on. So I agree on their not being a debate once you put the pieces together.

Oh, and I almost forgot about that draft pick...

As far as Ludwick vs Willingham... can I pass on both? I'm fine with just finding some platoon mate for Stubbs in CF till Hamilton is hopefully ready (even if it's not till 2014), keeping Frazier at third, and finding a cheaper option in left. Maybe even trying Heisey there for an extended look. I always felt that the way he's been used has hurt his overall effectiveness.

I am not worried about Bourn's age for the next 3 years... I think he is highly worth the cost in 2016-2017 if he gets the Reds the production they need... We are talking about Dollars here...

Madson or Soria $8 Million give or take

+

Ludwick $7-$9 Million for 3 years...

= $15 Million

I would rather put that money over the next 3 years into one lead-pff hitter who gets the Reds where they need to go, who will have a ripple affect on the entire lineup where you won't have a guy like Bruce hit 30+HR and land on 99 RBI...

This is what makes the most sense... For this team, for the next 3 years. The Reds need to be serious about filling their most glaring need and pay to do so, even if that means over-paying Bourn on 2016 & 2017, then so be it... IMHO.

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