What the 49ers should be wishing for–and against–as the playoff brackets get set on Sunday

The 49ers are wounded, they are uncertain, and they are headed into the playoffs nevertheless.

Great things, of course, could happen for Jim Harbaugh’s team once the 49ers move past Sunday’s regular-season tap-in against Arizona.

They are talented, they have some great, grinding victories, and we know that Patrick Willis, Dashon Goldson, Mike Iupati and others won’t go softly into the night.

Advertisement

But thanks to a few major injuries and other issues, the 49ers probably aren’t the same match-up nightmare that they were last year.

Frankly, it’s easier to figure out who and what the 49ers want to avoid in the postseason than find teams that most want to avoid them.

With injured players who could use some extra rest, the 49ers don’t want to lose the bye week.

But they’ll have to play next weekend if Green Bay wins the No. 2 seed by beating Minnesota on Sunday.

With Justin Smith a major question mark due to his elbow injury and memories of Marshawn Lynch running through them in Seattle last Sunday, the 49ers don’t want to face a strong running attack in the early-going.

With QB Colin Kaepernick still figuring things out and tight end Vernon Davis recovering from a concussion, the 49ers don’t want to meet a smart and strong defensive team—or deal with a series of them just to get to the NFC title game.

But they could draw Washington or Minnesota in the early rounds, two physical teams on a defensive upswing… and that would be before a potential NFC Championship Game in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome.

Or the 49ers could face the New York Giants–and even in a down year for the Giants, the 49ers probably don’t want any part of them if they can help it.

Or, if all goes awry, the 49ers could lose to Arizona on Sunday (incredibly doubtful, I know) and leave the division title for Seattle.

Other than galling Harbaugh no end to lose out to Pete Carroll, this also would set up the possibility of the 49ers traveling back to CenturyLink Field at some point in January.

Advertisement

Talk about a nightmare scenario.

Those are a lot of things the 49ers want to avoid, more things than you’d expect for a 10-4-1 team, I must say.

Essentially, the 49ers’ most fervent wishes come down to two and only two things:

* Beat Arizona and watch Green lose to Minnesota, which would give the 49ers the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a bye.

That would possibly set up a Green Bay-49ers divisional round game at Candlestick in two weeks, and the 49ers beat the Packers in Green Bay in Week 1 of the regular season.

Of course, that was with Alex Smith playing his best, but oh well…

* Get the No. 3 seed and draw a first-round match-up with Chicago, the team Kaepernick destroyed in his first NFL start.

Chicago would get the No. 6 seed—and the 49ers match-up—if the Bears beat Detroit and Minnesota loses to Green Bay.

I repeat: This is not at all like the way the 49ers headed into last season’s playoffs as the No. 2 seed, when they were mostly healthy and matched up well against every team… except the Giants.

This season? The 49ers will be the team with the least experienced quarterback in the playoffs and they have no idea what they can get out of Justin Smith when January arrives.

But it does come down to the same baseline goals for the 49ers, as it probably always will under Harbaugh: No matter who the QB is, the 49ers win when they can run the ball and stop the run.

The 49ers have out-rushed their opponents 27 times in the two-season Harbaugh era (including playoffs), and they are 23-3-1 in those games.

They’ve been out-rushed by their opponents only six times in that span, and are 2-4 when that happens.

This season, the 49ers are 0-3 when they’ve been out-rushed—in losses to Minnesota, the Giants and Seattle.

To that theme, there are only three teams currently ahead of the 49ers in rushing yards per game: Washington (No. 1), Seattle, (No. 2) and Minnesota (No. 3).

These are the teams that could be the most dangerous for the 49ers. And Green Bay and Atlanta serve up their own challenges, too.

So yes, the 49ers look a little vulnerable in several different ways.

It doesn’t mean the 49ers are in trouble; it just means they’ll have to wind their way through some extra issues, under extra pressure.

Post navigation

Couldn’t this be said about every team? Every team in the NFL is flawed from the falcons to the Texans to the giants to the pats to even the hawks. It’s going to be all about matchups in the playoffs and the team that wins will not only be good but lucky.

For the Niners the dream scenario would be a 2 seed then a trip to Atlanta who look like an overrated 1. The other favorable and more realistic scenario is getting the bears at home then traveling to lambeau. I think the Niners can outphysical the pack.

larry barry

How could Kawakami say they didn’t matchup well with the Giants in last years playoffs! They beat them during the regular season…REMEMBER….he’s full of scheiss!

Big Suede

The niners need BIG games out of their defense period. If the defense comes out and keeps teams to under 20 pts- the niners will win a super bowl.

If they lay an egg like their game against the seahawks and the last half of the patriots game- it will be a short exit.

Lefty

I’d add one more thing to worry about that’s different from last year: a kicker who seems to have the yips. In a close playoff game, this could be huge.

larry barry

Agreed Lefty……I never saw any mention this week but was Akers to blame at all for tbe blocked kick TD….Was the angle too low for such a dink shot

Nick

I think an issue that is starting to show in the last two games is the 49ers new lack time of possession. A big part of their win against Green Bay was keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible.
Lately the offense either looks out of sync, or 49ers score with big plays. This is nice for points, but it puts the D back out on the field.

If the 49ers are gonna beat three or four high powered offenses in a row, they’ll likely need to get back to running the ball, and passing that milks the clock.

Niners in 2012

Our defense needs to get their ish together.

milo

GB and A Rodgers have about a .700 winning percentage in domes, which of course are all road games. Going to be a tough game for Minnesota. Also Rodgers and the Pack have a chip on their shoulder from the temp refs debacle in Seattle. They’re playing for blood.

if anybody thinks alex smith could take this team to the superbowl and win; then you must think the 49er defense would keep opponents to below 13 points a game.

Slimman

The Niners have lost their mojo, and it happened when Smith got benched. Kap is way more fun to watch, but he is simply not as effective. I love my Niners and wish they’d win the Lombardi each and every year, but I don’t see it happening.

Slimman

To clarify, Kap has the downfield arm that Smith does not, but Smith is much better at reading defenses and adjusting to take care of the ball. With Smith in there the offense was looking at high percentage short yardage gains (more runs and short passes), i.e. ball control. This kept the defense fresh and rested and they could come in and dominate. We have seen what happens when Kap tosses three incompletions and no time goes off the clock, the defense has been exposed for not being as good as advertised. They are still a great unit, but the fear is gone, they can be tired out. In a weird way the Niners have become more predictable. I think Kap is the long-term answer, but by staying with him I think Harbaugh outsmarted himself and removed the team from SB contention. I hope I’m wrong, but don’t think so.

The reason the 49ers won 13 games and made the NFL Championship in 2011: They played the worst schedule in the NFL. They were in the worst division in the NFL. Their defense was nails — always. Their special teams were nails — always. Gore ran the ball great. Alex audibled well from one running play to another running play.

2012: The Niners had a 1st place schedule, they were in the best division in the NFL, their defense has been a sieve when it counted (do you really think Alex beats the Seahawks on the road when Seattle converts 12 of 13 3rd down conversions?) and David Akers has gone from the best kicker in the NFL to the WORST kicker in the NFL.

Kaepernick has been everything Alex Smith is and a little bit more. He has barely scratched the surface of his potential. Alex Smith is maxed out, meaning he has no more upside, and Kaepernick is already better than him. Some of you have delusions around what Alex was. And quit pointing to his QB rating, Alex racked up ALL of those stats against Buffalo and Arizona. He was putrid against the Giants, Seahawks, Vikings, and Jets. Not bad. Putrid.

Kaepernicks numbers in Seattle folks…would have represented one of the highest yardage games in Alex’s career. And yet you all blamed him for the loss, with the defense forcing Seattle to punt ONCE in the first 3 quarters.

Chris

I been riding with the 9ers for years but after they benched alex smith and continue to let that rookie flashy crap QB play i wholeheartedly wish that Jim Haraugh lose his job next year. He strikes out Way faster than alex smith does and puts more time for the defense on the field wearing them down much faster. You can see it in both the seattle and new england games where they look beaten by the forth quarter and wore out. Not to mention the running game is severely suffering because of the switch and even Frank Gore is making comments about it now.

The 49ers would be a much stronger team without Jim Harbaugh leading anymore , he just doesn’t fit what the team needs and its showing more this season.

WiserThanHarbaugh

Our SuperBowl chances vanished with the quarterback change. What to do with Harbaugh now? Maybe her can become an adult next season – wishful thinking perhaps.

Ron

You have to get breaks to win it all (see mediocre Giant teams that ending up with a Lombardi). A GB loss would be a nice start.

Ron

#14. Are you serious? Maybe you forgot the coaches before Harbaugh? If anything they need to lock him down as long as possible. If Akers makes two kicks today is moot and a first round bye is in the bag. Difference making coaches are hard to find, ask about 25 other teams in the league.

Mr Upside

TK, nice to see you are paying attention to the posts. I wrote this very same thing last week regarding SF not matching up well against Seattle, Minnesota and Giants but matching up better against QB dominant offenses such as New England, New Orleans and Green Bay.

Though I think Harbaugh made a gutsy and smart decision in given Kaepernick the starting job there is great irony if they have to go play and lose in Green Bay again.