I think it will be a first-time major winner, but not necessarily an expected one (i.e. Scott, Kim, etc.)

I'll take Hunter Mahan

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If he wins, does he get a big hug from Azinger after the 72nd hole?

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Not if he keeps spouting the BS that he did to Golf magazine, such as the PGA of America doesn't care about winning the Ryder Cup and that the players are "treated like slaves" that week.
That, from a guy who's never played in one.