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Following a brief interlude of “neutral” sea surface temperature conditions this summer, La Niña has returned to the tropical Pacific Ocean. The cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern is expected to persist through winter.

In summer 2011, the South was in the grip of one of the worst droughts on record, and the fall drought outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center provided little hope of relief, especially for the Southwest and Texas.

As early as November of last year, NOAA scientists were able to forecast extreme drought conditions that would likely lead to high fire risk in the South, allowing fire managers time to prepare for an active season.