Blog about sports and politics and whatever else seems interesting from a guy (formerly) in Mexico.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Why Josefina

Under a column with the same title as this post, Leo Zuckermann explains why Josefina Vázquez and not Santiago Creel would be the best play for the PAN in 2012:

The questions is why she would be a good candidate. Aside from the many political qualities she possesses, I believe it would also help for her to be a woman.

It won't be easy in 2012 for independent voters to vote for the PAN candidate after twelve years in power, with all the fatigue that this implies. Therefore, the PAN needs an extra factor to elevate its possibilities of winning. It could be a special candidate, someone uncommon. And what better than a woman for the first time in the history of the country having a real chance of winning the presidency.

I think that's all true, but chances are that her appeal, brand new though it may be, will not be enough to overcome the PRI. Zuckermann compares a Vázquez run to the excitement surrounding the groundbreaking candidacies of Obama and Hillary Clinton, but a nation weary of Republican governance was a major driver of Obama's victory. The corresponding factor would be running contra to Vázquez in 2012.

I wonder if Váquez, having made a similar calculation, would rather let Creel take the nomination and absorb the slaughter, and save her play for the presidency in 2018. That would be more than a bit risky, since there's no guarantee that 2018 will be any more favorable toward the PAN and a million things could happen in eight years to make her a presidential impossibility, but I can't help but feel that the Vázquez and the PAN would be wasting a potentially appealing candidacy if she ran in 2012.