The Money World Is Losing Faith In The Illusion Of Control

The rot moves from the margins to the center, but the disease moves from the center to the margins. That is what has happened in the realm of money in recent weeks due to the sustained mispricing of the cost of credit by central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve. Along the way, that outfit has managed to misprice just about everything else — stocks, houses, exotic securities, food commodities, precious metals, fine art. Oil is mispriced as well, on the low side, since oil production only gets more expensive and complex these days while it depends more on mispriced borrowed money. That situation will be corrected by scarcity, as oil companies discover that real capital is unavailable. And then the oil will become scarce. The “capital” circulating around the globe now is a squishy, gelatinous substance called “liquidity.” All it does is gum up markets. But eventually things do get unstuck.

Meanwhile, the rot of epic mispricing expresses itself in collapsing currencies and the economies they are supposed to represent: India, Turkey, Argentina, Hungary so far. Italy, Spain, and Greece would be in that club if they had currencies of their own. For now, they just do without driving their cars and burn furniture to stay warm this winter. Automobile use in Italy is back to 1970s levels of annual miles-driven. That’s quite a drop.

Before too long, the people will be out in the streets engaging with the riot police, as in Ukraine. This is long overdue, of course, and probably cannot be explained rationally since extreme changes in public sentiment are subject to murmurations, the same unseen forces that direct flocks of birds and schools of fish that all at once suddenly turn in a new direction without any detectable communication.

Who can otherwise explain the amazing placidity of the sore beset American public, beyond the standard trope about bread, circuses, and superbowls? Last night they were insulted with TV commercials hawking Maserati cars. Behold, you miserable nation of overfed SNAP card swipers, the fruits of wealth and celebrity! Savor your unworthiness while you await the imminent spectacles of the Sochi Olympics and Oscar Night! Things at the margins may yet interrupt the trance at the center. My guess is that true wickedness brews unseen in the hidden, unregulated markets of currency and interest rate swaps.

The big banks are so deep in this derivative ca-ca that eyeballs are turning brown in the upper level executive suites. Notable bankers are even jumping out of windows, hanging themselves in back rooms, and blowing their brains out in roadside ditches. Is it not strange that there are no reports on the contents of their suicide notes, if they troubled to leave one? (And is it not unlikely that they would all exit the scene without a word of explanation?) One of these, William Broeksmit, a risk manager for Deutsche Bank, was reportedly engaged in “unwinding positions” for that that outfit, which holds over $70 trillion in swap paper. For scale, compare that number with Germany’s gross domestic product of about $3.4 trillion and you could get a glimmer of the mischief in motion out there. Did poor Mr. Broeksmit despair of his task?

Physicist Stephen Hawking declared last week that black holes are not exactly what people thought they were. Stuff does leak back out of them. This will soon be proven in the unwinding derivatives trades when most of the putative wealth associated with swaps and such disappears across the event horizon of bad faith, and little dribbles of their prior existence leak back out in bankruptcy proceedings and political upheaval.

The event horizon of bad faith is the exact point where the credulous folk of this modern age, from high to low, discover that their central banks only pretend to be regulating agencies, that they ride a juggernaut of which nobody is really in control. The illusion of control has been the governing myth since the Lehman moment in 2008. We needed desperately to believe that the authorities had our backs. They don’t even have their own fronts.

Is the money world at that threshold right now? One thing seems clear: nobody is able to turn back the plummeting currencies. They go where they will and their failures must be infectious as the greater engine of world trade seizes up. Who will write the letters of credit that make international commerce possible? Who will trust whom? When do people seriously start to starve and reach for the pitchforks? When does the action move from Kiev to London, New York, Frankfurt, and Paris?

The money world is always at a threshold. Expand exponentially or die. Unfortunately or fortunately humans have no ability to supply and demand exponentially long-term let alone forever.

Billions of walking unfunded liabilities are eventually going to have to go, if they use the big weapons... extinction is not out of the question. Use the equation and the equation eventually uses you.

EM countries currencies going down does not mean they have
economic problems that are being uncovered as all this crisis talk would imply. Large capital outflows alone
are not making currencies drop, as liquidity for the local currency could be created by local central banks.

What we are looking at is a repeat of the various convertability issues we had in Asia and Russia before :

Loss of confidence in the local currency because of certain bank-run like capital outflows make central banks losing
their cool and throwing good money after bad, draining reserves for no reason than trying to maintain textbook
conversion rates. They panic and make the initial drop a
self fulfilling prophecy. The Soroses can no longer play that game in Europe, but any ones currency is fair game.

But my point is, after getting burned badly in this game
in two decades ; it is not a liquidity thing, hot money
parting good riddance, it is a self induced squeeze on staying convertible, the suspension of which would have little consequences for the local stake holders.

And the devil. He goes where he will. Can you see him stacking this all up so it will fall like a house of cards on everyone, everyone. Poor and rich alike. It will probably be worse on the rich - they can't deal with hardship.

tmosley: Yes i observe increasing desperation also....it is often overlooked that crime is a cycle that includes ever increasing circles to operate, and is extremely inefficient and unreliable when it is ongoing. Nature abhors a vacuum, but it will also not tolerate inbreeding and concentration of power at all in the long term either.

It is not long before they do not trust each other, and thus the process of decay ensues and gains pace.

Posted on youtube and Fairnikum radio 3 days ago. "Institutional Corruption - Karen Hudes "Karen worked in the legal department of the World Bank from 1986-2007. During this time she began to blow the whistle on the endemic corruption she witnessed. This honourable action led to her termination and mistreatment."

The underlying problem in this highly stressed sector is a shortage of specialist economic climate psychiatrists. I have tried to draw attention to the fact that i am the only one of this specialist medical science so far albeit as an amateur/hobbyist, but it has fallen thus far on deaf ears.If there are any bankers at ZH, i would only be too happy to perform my first consultation so we can get on with effecting a cure.

I also have an interest in the practice of forensic economic psychiatry, and with a background in understanding the money creation and destruction process, and being multi skilled, i could help train new apprentices in this exciting new field in medicine

"extreme changes in public sentiment are subject to murmurations, the same unseen forces that direct flocks of birds and schools of fish that all at once suddenly turn in a new direction without any detectable communication."

They're trying. Each plunge today has been stopped by a surge of buys but after the surge ends no one steps in to continue the buying. It's a bad day for BTFD. Maybe they're waiting for tomorrow. It's a flash crashy sort of day. Weeklys are still cheap 20% down.

Randoom Thought: A study in forensic economic psychiatry could help you make sense of those valid observations you make. If you look up this important science you can find helpfull links and tips by googling "economic climate psychiatry" or "forensic economic psychiatry"

One thing seems clear: nobody is able to turn back the plummeting currencies. They go where they will and their failures must be infectious as the greater engine of world trade seizes up. Who will write the letters of credit that make international commerce possible? Who will trust whom? When do people seriously start to starve and reach for the pitchforks? When does the action move from Kiev to London, New York, Frankfurt, and Paris?

Soon...Very soon. It is actually somewhat astonishing that it is not already happening. Or is it just a Slow Motion Train Wreck with the catastophic, terminal stop dead ahead?

Yeah there is a light at the end of the tunnel. That light is the Headlamp of an oncoming Derivative Freight Train that is set to plow us into pieces.

Ring the good ol' bugle, boys, we'll sing another song,
Sing it with the spirit that will start the world along,
Sing it as we used to sing it 50,000 strong
While we were marching through Georgia.

[Chorus]: Hurrah, hurrah, we bring the jubilee!
Hurrah, hurrah, the flag that makes you free!
So we sang the chorus from Atlanta to the sea
While we were marching through Georgia!

How the darkies shouted when they heard the joyful sound!
How the turkeys gobbled which our commissary found!
How the sweet potatoes even started from the ground
While we were marching through Georgia! [Chorus]

Turning and turning in the widening gyreThe falcon cannot hear the falconer;Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhereThe ceremony of innocence is drowned;The best lack all conviction, while the worstAre full of passionate intensity.

would not all these derivatives going POOF imply upcoming deflation? i guess at the point currency destruction, the argument between inflation (infinity) or deflation (zero) is moot. is the price of bread in USD going to be infinity or zero?

bread is the product of the agricultural assembly line. so yes there might not be bread at some future moment, as either the weather patterms which support the grain belt shift, or some other economic activity (oil wells or what have you), interrupts the large continuous spaces that are needed.

derivatives are a zero sum factor in theory anyway. the stability they provide would be missed (in theory anyway) and would be replaced by their doppelganger, control. ask yourself what happens if they abolish the fed, mostly likely answer: the UST goes off balance sheet with its debt. (more transparency anyway)

After the continued collapse of Lenins New Economic Policy ( Soviet Central Control, Lite ) Stalin went to the ...um as some who don't belive it exists, "barbaric", physical takings of Ukraine foodstuffs, farm by farm.
On the plus side, Stalin had low personal and corporate tax rates, so he had that going for him, which is nice.

Sure. The price of things we need will inflate until reaching the point of loss-of-confidence in fiat (in paying $55658905968 for a slice of bread, joe six pack may finally realize the dollar is just paper).

and the control of illusion is propaganda. it might be best to give up on the idea(s) control and illusion. the notion of the derivative is that it provides stability, whether it guarantees a fair price or an obscene profit, the notion is indifferent to its use. if i am freezing in NY and the government regulators hike margins on NG at the exchange i am not complaining, they were gouging me anyway. lost in the bruehau over the eurozone is the fact that originally the one currency model served to even out price differences for the same products traded between single national economies. stability (stated goal of the fed) and control (effective policy on the markets) aren't the same thing, and when you cross that line all sort of alarms should go off, but they haven't. its not the noise Kunstler, its the silence that is the problem.

When you get down to it, derivatives are just a 'legal' way to do stuff off the ledger sheet, tweak the margins to hit your targets at the top, and then threw up your hands like Sgt Schultz if you are still around at the C-suite and do your best 'I know nothing' routine.

There are a few legit areas where derivatives are useful economic development tools but it has been 30+ years of constant expansion of them with really no push back on them even after what transpired in '08. Basically it is 'have some more Tier 1 capital on hand' (while watering that down too) and 'let's get some psuedo-transparency into a BS deriviates exchange which still provides almost no real clarity into who holds what counterparty risk.'

It is like when a US bank claims they are complying with money laundering laws when they know damn well that some of their clients/accounts at banks in other countries are essentially shell companies or banks that are money-laundering fronts. Basically they have a BS compliance officer/team to comply with SEC/Treasury regulations and then play stupid if the Feds or someone else comes after them in a criminal manner in the US.

LOL, but I might actually want to get onto a jury. Especially if it is a simple possession case or something, because no judge or DA would hear "jury nullification" from my lips, but the rest of the jury would, during deliberation.

Bullshit. there are 7+ billion people all competing for a better standard of living and all the commodities and resources that make the possible. There is plenty of demand (unfortunately most of them are flat broke).

"With the world's markets holding their breath about the FED's decision tonight it is very timely to follow Jim Rickards with his analysis on what to expect from Janet Yellen now. With Gold holding at the crucial breakout level now, it will be very important whether the recent turmoil in the emerging markets and sell off in the US markets will put the unease among the FED for Bernanke's clean exit despite of the growing misalliances in the markets. Gold market is showing the further signs of extreme levels of leverage in the Gold Fractional Reserve System and more evidence of the shortages in the physical Gold available for delivery. There are reports that JPMorgan Loses 44% of Gold Inventories in 4 Days."

"correct on everything but oil -- James go learn about some oil tech pls."

Or just look at balance sheets. Oil companies sit on huge piles of cash. Exxon has no debt, Chevron has no debt. Highly cyclical businesses tend to stockpile a lot of cash so they don't die when the cycle bottoms out.

The heavy investment is taking a toll on Exxon's balance sheet: It is carrying $22.7 billion in debt, nearly twice as much as the beginning of 2013. The company continued to draw down its cash balance in the fourth quarter, to $4.9 billion at the end of 2013 from $5.7 billion at the beginning of the last quarter.

Still, Exxon said it would continue buying back its shares at the rate of $3 billion a quarter.

I have read that you Americans have some 100's of millions of weapons between you, with enough ammunition to frighten Hitler, we unfortunately dont have that option.

I sit here amused at the thoughts of the leaders of your country trying to figure out what they are going to do when you lot finally say enough is enough. If you didnt already know, the English might not be armed, but when riled are a nasty bunch of bastards when properly provoked, thats why our top London copper has been given permission to use water cannons on us lot for the 'Up Coming Riots'.

The in-bred fucking idiot mayor of London, the toffee nosed cunt Boris Johnson has also stated that he expects the police to go 'Medieval' on us 'Plebs'.

Oh my friends, its coming. They know this. They as I have said and stated around the web, are shit fucking scared. They started this shit, not us, not one in one million started the decline we are now living through, they know, that we now know this.

The time to 'Prepare Accordingly' is fast running out my friends, best of luck you lot, if anyone deserves it, its those that took the red pill.

Sometimes I wonder as well when this day of reckoning will transpire. I see in the news daily of new information rising of D.C. trying to implicate justification of military action in almost every sector of the world, D.C. must soon or already realizing that they are painting themselves into a corner, creating enemies from every side of the world. This past year has been amazing seeing more and more and more people coming to terms with reality and developing strong emotion that enough is enough.

I can only hope that I have prepared accordingly well enough to make it through this mess.

I sit here quite often and chuckle away at some of the blatant shit these fuckers 'Think' they going to get away with, I really do, you can see the desperation on their faces especially the politicos.

They have a large idea of the hell they are about to unleash on our arses, but as ever, they genuinely believe they have the bases covered.

They havent, it didnt have to go down this way my friend, they have brought this upon us, and I do believe they have made massive uncalculated mistakes by believing their own hype. I'm smiling while I type this.

Its going to be a somewhat 'Epic' conflagration when it does kick off. Take care out there, head down, arse up.

You'll know we've hit a tipping point when local gets comparable to or even cheaper than Wal Mart. Actually, with hamburger, getting quality grass fed local beef is comparable to the local supermarkets to the south of you. Or at least it was the last time I paid attention. I have a freezer full of elk steak, roast and burger.

Look at the Ukraine, the people always find a way. I am talking violence here, they brought this down on all our heads, we had no fucking say whatsoever in this shit show that they think 'We' 'Have' to pay for with money, printed from thin air, with interest added.

I genuinely believe they have misunderstood just how badly this 'Is' going to turn out.

Its been said in jest, but WE are 'Legion'. They, are just about to find out how much.

What is a revolution if not ordered (organized) resistance? What is mass violence if not a type of resistance? I do not think that we want just mass unorganized violence, as that sets the conditions for outright dictators and other types of tyrants who are worse than what we have now.

The only people in the US and UK who have an inkling of what this would lead to are those who have seen combat, and except for the odd refugee here and there, most of those people had superb logistical machines backing them up at the time. Mass violence on the home front will likely break down these logistical machines, including food for us plebs.

Regardless of whether or not you advocate said violence, if you think it is coming, you should rip out your lawn if you have one, and plant the otherwise unused land on your property. You should save enough seed to plant next year and help your neighbors plant next year too, and enough to stave off inbreeding depression. If you don't have enough land, you should see about organizing a community garden. Source out local farmers too, and drag your neighbor with you if you can. If truthieness gets to your neighbors, just tell them that you want to remain healthy and know what you're eating, and since you're in the UK, bring up the horse meat scandal. If you're in the US, just point out all of the "made in China" food, and show them pictures of floating pigs and smog.

I think you've misunderstood me mate, I do not advocate violence, that said, its coming regardless, not everyone is as capable as the folks that post on here.

North east England here my friend and 'Allotments' are born and bread in our blood, and as far as trying to convince others, I dont at this point think any more needs done, as the internet has achieved a goal the PTB hadnt reckoned on.

As I said though, this is unpredictable in a way, but on just the folk I know, and the voices I hear, it is not going to turn out the way the PTB think. It cant, and in my opinion, it wont.

There is saying from when jaffa was a tangerine, 'You can only kick a dog so many times, before it bites back'.

We, in our lifetimes, will witness this. As I said before, take care, it could be a right priviledge in some ways to bear witness to what is coming our way.

I'm just thinking from a practical standpoint that it's best to do what you can to make sure that your neighbors have a source of food, even if you don't tell them why it is necessary. It's better to have a neighbor that you don't have to shoot because he was trying to steal your food during hard times. Cost, variety, quality and food scandals should be enough reason to think about localized food production without getting into some of the other stuff that is considered impossible tinfoil stuff by the sheep. The idea just needs to be planted, and not everybody needs to accept it.

I'm lucky enough to be set in this regard, as all of my neighbors have an orchard or a garden, most can raise livestock and many do, and the capacity of my neighborhood to produce food, with or without electricity could be ramped up very, very quickly. I don't have to convince them that shit's going to get crazy until it's getting crazy.

I've also noticed that a lot more people are thinking about this. I think that GMO crap is one big reason. People don't want to eat it, so they're turning to growing their own or getting stuff from local farmers. Farmer's markets are starting to come back around here, and the co-op that allows farmers to sell their stuff is expanding. It's why I say, you need not turn to "Shit is going to hit the fan, be a prepper!" to get people on board.

I don't want the violence, but I think it is inevitable, so I think that puts us on the same footing. When it breaks out, we will have to make some very hard decisions. Participate and try to steer it? Look to oneself and one's family and try to survive?

You come across as a thoroughly nice bloke El Vaquero, at this point with what we know, the burden my friend is on us.

I have no intentions of being anyones leader, sage, or mother. I am what I am just the same as you, but I will do what I can. But I cannot state this enough, this is going to be epic, this going to change all our lives. Lets hope we have the staunchness and fortitude to see this through.

I don't think we're going to have a choice. I think we will have to find the staunchness and fortitude, or not survive. I do not wish to lead either, but I fear what may arise if somebody with both ethics and will power isn't in there guiding things. Sheep are gullible, and promises are cheap.

in the Stuper Bowl last night, Fox kept playing a short 5 sec clip of the Union Jack getting riddled with bullet holes. they revealed in the 4th quarter that it was a "promo" for the new 24 series set in London, but the subliminal programming did not escape this viewer.

“When dictators of all ideological persuasions flee their shores, they flee not with paper money but with gold, silver, art objects or diamonds. They leave the paper money and their expense accounts for their subjects.

“If one kind or gracious thing can be said for them, it is this: They know the value of money. after all, they had it printed.” –Alfred Anderson Kenney, Marco Polo on Money

starting to go mainstream. Once the loss of faith in central banks becomes universal we will have a lot of pain (which is our own faults for buying into a flawed system) but hopefully out of that we can learn (pretty please) and adjust the system to a more tenable and sustainable one.

We have another very important confirmation of the strong demand from China for physical Gold in 2014. With today's move above $1265 Gold needs to clear $1270 for the clean break out and massive short squeeze.

I feel better knowing that our President has adjusted over 200 leading military people to fit his future needs. He has insulated himself by changing 96 years of practice to establish majority vote in the Senate for purposes of approving nominations and placement of very liberal Judges to the DC Court of Appeals giving protection against rapid Supreme Court action. His practice of changing settled law in ACA and others testing the response of dull Republicans and allowing Agencies to create process then making it law.

Finally, now making it clear that the President will "Do all he can without Congress" to make it belligerently clear. His ambition is to create an emergency situation. The rest is automatic and well thought out. What I don't understand is the Republican's tepid response?

They're on the same team, the "stay in office forever at any cost" team. Boehner just gave an excellent example of how to sell out your base while trying to appear "reasonable", "nuanced" or "realistic". NO ONE on either side (Red or Blue, and how did they get reversed from their historical meanings?) is interested in reform, responsiblity or repairing the nation; they want theirs, while you pay for it.

It's time to retroactively revoke some Congressional pensions and perks, and I would start with folks like Whacksman from CA, who finally figured out that re-election was a FAIL (for him) and retired. He's screwed us over so many ways (a primary author of ObamaCare, for just one) that I think a little vigilante justice would suit him just fine. And if we knew how much he's squirreled away and where (of OUR tax money, bribes, and graft) we could take that as well, and pay for some NEEDY people (that he made that way) to afford some food.

"The illusion of control has been the governing myth since the Lehman moment in 2008."

Marc Faber pointed out in 2010 that the world was under the entirely false illusion that central banks and govts control both fiscal and monetary policy (not to mention real-economy, wages, actual inflation, and employment levels), as government and CB administered 'settings'.