The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development.
The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

global: development of CO2 emissions

Whilst worldwide CO2 emissions will increase by 62% in the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 27,925 million tonnes in 2009 to 3,076 million tonnes in 2050 (excluding international bunkers).

Annual per capita emissions will drop from 4.1 tonnes to 2.4 tonnes in 2030 and 0.3 tonne in 2050. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will even reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 23% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will drop below transport as the largest source of emissions. By 2050, global CO2 emissions are 15% of 1990 levels.