Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Grrrrr

Much of the content of this site is centered around my experience in the construction industry where I was exposed to some of the inner workings. My premise has been that prices will be down 30% on average when the smoke clears and that there was $10 trillion in home equity and $10 trillion in mortgages at the peak. Yielding a loss of 30% on $20 trillion, or $6 trillion, half of which would be borne by the banks ($3 trillion). I think I may have upped the estimate to a 35% loss somewhere along the way ($3.5 trillion).

The observation that the Bloomberg types are floating a $1 trillion loss number is why I get worried about the stability of the world financial system. Because of these worries, I have taken steps to protect my family in the case that I may be right. Reading some of my back entries, especially the ones drafted at or above certain blood-alcohol levels, one could think I was a militant.

I am not a militant, I obey the laws and pay my taxes. Just in case anybody was wondering. But if the laws go away in a spectacular failure of the government, which I hope they don’t, I will be prepared to provide for food security and physical security for my family.

Count me also on the side of those who would fight to return to a Constitutional form of government.

With that disclaimer, all of which is true, here’s a link to a guy in the business who seems to be more pessimistic about the global economic outlook than me. One of his observations that I found interesting is that the foreclosed housing inventory is in worse shape than I had been predicting (30-35%).

He points out that foreclosures also include tens of thousands of dollars in administrative fees, and physical damage from the evictee.

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About Brick Oven

Brick Oven is a collection of raw thoughts, sometimes made while sober, that the author hopes to use as a resource to aid in the writing of a future fictional book. Some of these thoughts include topics associated with the 2nd Amendment, others are political, but all are fictional, at least in part. These thoughts are to be discounted as nothing other than delusional, drunken rants, collected for future use in a fictional novel. Violence is always bad.

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