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Sunday, 5 July 2015

A few months ago, I wrote an article, in which I
compared the actions of the Greek “Dynamic Duo”, PM Alexis Tsipras and Finance
Minister Yanis Varoufakis, against the Euro-group and the Troika, with
a classic ‘suicide by cop’ situation:

A desperate
renegade, with virtually nothing to lose, gets stuck in a certain awkward
situation (often a hostage taking). While being in this situation, he is
challenged by heavily armed police, who want him to immediately surrender to
their conditions.

Instead
of complying to these conditions, the follow-up actions of the renegade seem utterly
pointless and even counterproductive. These actions become increasingly erratic
and dangerous for the surroundings, causing the general tensions at the spot to
mount dramatically. As a consequence, the police start to act increasingly
aggressive and hysterical.

As
neither of both parties (renegade and police) want to change their behaviour in
the follow-up of the events, the outcome of such a situation is mostly perfectly
clear: the renegade threatens to shoot the hostages and is subsequently shot
down in a hailstorm of bullets, leaving everybody flabbergasted about his former
motivation and motives.

This (mainly American) phenomenon is known as “Suicide-by-Cop”
(SbC) and a perfect example of a lose-lose situation, as both the police and
the renegade become losers of their own behaviour eventually.

In a SbC situation, none of the parties is able to
rethink their own behaviour (or strategy) objectively and to look at it as a strong
catalyst for the mounting tensions between both parties.

The police find that they are fully doing the right
thing during the progression of the events and that they should not give in one
bit to the hostage taker, who is clearly wrong from their point of view. And
the renegade himself?! He is stuck in his own “adventure“ and cannot objectively
judge his own behaviour anymore, as utterly improductive and straightforwardly
dangerous for his health and life.

Suffice it to say that the defining moment of the ‘hailstorm
of bullets’ is indeed very close for the Greek Syriza-government today.

Renegades Tsipras and Varoufakis seemingly behaved
increasingly erratic during the last months, while the “good cops of Euro-zone common
sense and divine self-righteousness”, Jeroen Dijsselbloem and Wolfgang Schäuble
are ready and willing to blow their heads clean off.

The last seemingly erratic act of Tsipras and
Varoufakis was the organization of today’s Greek referendum upon the last
proposal emerging from the Troika (IMF, European Commission and ECB) and their
open advice to vote “Oxi” (Greek for ‘No’) against this very proposal.

Varoufakis even went so far to say that he would ‘vanish’
as Greek Finance Minister, when his “Oxi-action” would fail.

So this is the situation: when Greece says ‘no’ to the last
Troika proposal, ‘Eurozone cops’ Jeroen Dijsselbloem and Wolfgang Schäuble and
all the right-wing politicians within the European Union will probably pull the
trigger and effectuate a Grexit in the coming months.

When Greece says ‘Yes’ to the proposal, the country
will be in for another decade of harsh austerity, causing massive (youth)
unemployment and poverty, as well as very limited growth or even economic
decline. And on top of it: with a resigning Syriza government, the country will
step into the pitfall of political chaos, in which the old, corrupted Greek elites
might again take their chances to rise into political power.

So as a matter of fact, the suicide-by-cop will virtually
be effectuated today, whatever will happen in the Greek referendum: for the Greek
population, this is a classic lose-lose situation and so it is for the rest of
the European Union, which is again caught with its pants down.

What bothers me, however, and what should be on the
retina of every historian of the next fifty years, is the question whether Greece
is solely guilty to this chaos or not.

This is the eternal question after every suicide-by-cop
situation: was only the renegade guilty due to his erratic behaviour or was the
behaviour of the cops themselves also a catalyst for the situation quickly
getting out of hand?! I think I know what the answer will be.

And now we will see, whether Greece will pull the trigger
causing its immediate demise through an Oxi-action, or that it will continue
the “soft choke” that the European Union forces upon the country, by voting Nai
(i.e. “Yes”).

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About me

Hi, I am Ernst Labruyère. I live in The Netherlands with my wife Olga and my three children.
I blog on the Dutch, European and worldwide economies.
I try to bring you the interesting newsfacts and insights.
Besides doing photography and playing my electric guitar, I'd like to drive to my work with my racing bicycle. Saving the environment and getting rid of some pounds. I hope you enjoy this blog. Please let me know: @orbeaernie on twitter or ealabruyere@gmail.com