Pro-Second
Amendment stalwarts Bob Smith of New Hampshire and Jesse Helms of
North Carolina will be replaced by John Sununu and Elizabeth Dole;
Sununu will always vote pro-gun, and Dole usually so, but neither will
be a leader as their predecessors were. Conversely, South Carolina's
Lindsey Graham will be more constructive on the issue than retiring
Strom Thurmond.

Net result:
Pro-rights gain of +2, with the possibility of adding one more vote in
the Louisiana runoff. This brings the Senate to rough parity on most
firearms issues.

Maryland:
Energetically antigun Parris Glendening succeeded by moderately
pro-gun Bob Ehrlich. This should provide Marylanders with a respite
from repressive new laws, and ensure that existing laws are
administered more fairly.

Massachusetts: New Governor Mitt Romney is mildly pro-gun, and
should be better than retiring Jane Swift.

Vermont:
Strongly pro-gun Democrat Howard Dean is leaving to run for president.
Pro-gun Republican Jim Douglas won a plurality, but not a majority,
over mildly antigun Democrat Douglas Racine. The Vermont house will
select the next governor, in a secret ballot, and is expected to pick
Douglas.

Net result:
Progress in small or medium population coastal states (Alaska, Hawaii,
Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Oregon, Rhode Island) is outweighed by
losses of medium and large states in the interior (Arizona, Kansas,
Illinois [bad to terrible], Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin).

U.S. HOUSE

The two antigun incumbents defeated by pro-gun candidates
was Minnesota's Bill Luther and Ohio's Tom Sawyer. The only pro-gun
incumbent to lose was Republican Heather Wilson of New Mexico, while
Henry Bonilla of Texas is trailing, with 3/4 of precincts reporting.

Net result: The
pro-rights majority in the House of Representatives grows wider by a
notable margin — large enough to make a difference in a tough vote.

INITIATIVES

South Dakota had an initiative to explicitly inform juries in the
criminal cases of their right to acquit a technically guilty
defendant, if they thought the charges were unjust. The initiative
lost in a landslide, thus stopping a potential nationwide movement that would have been of
great help to people accused of violating repressive gun laws, or of
using firearms against attackers.

Oklahoma voters
rejected an initiative to make it more difficult to put hunting,
fishing, and trapping initiatives on the ballot — a proposal aimed at
heading off initiatives against outdoor sports.

LEGISLATIVE PREDICTIONS

In the states, California and Illinois poised for more restrictions on
gun rights. The Michigan and Pennsylvania legislatures should block
most of their governors' proposals, although progressive legislation
is impossible to enact. Concealed carry reform can't become law in
Kansas or Wisconsin, but remains viable in Minnesota, New Mexico, and
Ohio.

In Congress,
the Homeland Security Department bill will pass the Senate during the
lame-duck session, along with language allowing commercial airline
pilots to carry handguns. The House Commerce Committee has already
passed legislation, using its power to regulate state or local efforts
to interfere with interstate, to stop abusive anti-gun lawsuits by
municipalities. The Senate might pass such a bill during the lame-duck
session, or in the next Congress. The 1994 Clinton ban on cosmetically
incorrect firearms (so-called "assault weapons") sunsets in September
2004, and efforts to renew or expand it face an uphill battle.

Bush judges who
respect the Second Amendment will take their place in the federal
judiciary, including, perhaps, the replacements for Supreme Court
Justices Rehnquist, O'Connor, and Stevens. Should Rehnquist
(pro-Second Amendment), O'Connor (mildly so), and Stevens (strongly
opposed) all be replaced by rights-conscious justices, the Supreme
Court may be ready for a ruling to explicitly reaffirm its line of
cases recognizing the Second Amendment as an individual right, albeit
one subject to a wide variety of regulation.

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necessarily representing the views of the Independence Institute or as an
attempt to influence any election or legislative action. Please send
comments to Independence Institute, 727 East 16th Ave., Denver, Colorado 80203 Phone 303-279-6536. (email)webmngr @ i2i.org