Politics reoriented in Wis. race

U.S. Senate candidate, Tammy Baldwin (D),, speaks the media at the Western Technical College in LaCrosse, Wisconsin on Monday, Sept. 24, 2012. (Stacey Wescott)

LA CROSSE, Wis. — Speaking back-to-back at a recent convention here, U.S. Senate rivals Tammy Baldwin and Tommy Thompson sparred over taxes, spending, jobs, health care and the like -- everything but what marks their race as a potential national standout.

Baldwin is a lesbian, and with a win Nov. 6-- the race is razor-tight, according to polls -- she would become the Senate's first openly gay member. The prospect comes at a time when deeply entrenched political barriers are rapidly falling.

Two Muslims sit in the U.S. House. Four years ago, the Democratic presidential choice came down to a black candidate or a woman, and voters nationwide ultimately made Barack Obama president. Next month they might vote to replace him with a Mormon, Mitt Romney.

The 50-year-old Baldwin, who has served seven terms in Congress representing a Madison-area district, already has proved a trailblazer. A handful of gay House members had come out while in office, but in 1998 she became the first openly gay candidate elected to that chamber.

Oddly, however, the potential for more history making by Baldwin is receiving scant attention in Wisconsin, avoided so far by both candidates and even social conservatives. It is an omission at once strategic as well as a bow to a political dynamic in which polls show a growing public acceptance of gay rights.

Sexual orientation "almost never comes up because of what people are struggling with," Baldwin said in an interview. "Certainly things have changed, but this is an election about basic economics and who is fighting for you."

Julaine Appling, president of Wisconsin Family Action, said Baldwin's sexual orientation is hardly an afterthought to anti-gay rights activists like herself, but "it's not something that everyone is comfortable talking about." Gay or not, Baldwin's liberal stance on abortion as well as tax and spending issues gives conservatives ample reason to oppose her, Appling said.

bsecter@tribune.com

The political sensitivity of the issue was on full display last month when Brian Nemoir, a top Thompson aide, used campaign accounts to send out emails and tweets linking to a 2-year-old video of Baldwin dancing at a gay pride event.

Nemoir added this sarcastic comment to the posts: "Clearly there's no one better positioned to talk 'heartland values' than Tammy."

Thompson later called Nemoir's actions a "mistake" and declared sexual orientation an off-limits issue. The Republican candidate, a former Wisconsin governor, removed Nemoir as a spokesman, though he remains with the campaign.

The race was widely considered Thompson's to lose after he won the August Republican primary, an assessment based on his popularity when he left the governor's mansion 12 years ago. But there are myriad factors behind the strength of Baldwin's campaign to date, perhaps chief among them a sharp gender gap. A recent Marquette University Law School poll found that Baldwin held an edge over Thompson among women voters, while men preferred the Republican.

The fact that the race is so close may point to a sea change in attitudes in Wisconsin, where just six years ago a key litmus test of sentiment over gay rights was put to a ballot test. By a margin of 56 percent to 44 percent, voters approved an amendment to the state constitution banning gay marriage and civil unions.

Nationally, the trend lines are clear. In a 2003 nationwide survey by The Washington Post and the Kaiser Family Foundation, only 37 percent of those questioned thought gay marriage should be legal while 55 percent said it should be illegal. But by last summer, a similar survey from those two organizations found the results nearly flipped: 53 percent said it should be legal and 42 percent said illegal.

That said, as a legal matter the issue is far from settled. Six states and the District of Columbia have legalized gay marriage since 2004, when Massachusetts became the first under a court order. Ironically, Romney was Massachusetts governor back then and took heat from conservatives for not doing enough to block implementation.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin is one of 30 states that have put up legal barriers to gay marriage. Four more states have gay marriage measures on ballots next month, with Minnesota voting whether to ban it and Maine, Maryland and Washington state voting whether to legalize it.

Gay marriage also figures prominently on the ballot in Iowa, where the state Supreme Court voted in 2009 to sanction gay marriage. Conservative groups retaliated the next year with a successful drive to oust three of the justices involved in that decision who were up for retention. A fourth justice is up for retention this year, and interest groups on the right and left are mounting a fierce battle over his fate.