Search results matching tags 'Energy', 'Lifestyle', 'Capitalism', 'Rallies', 'Government', '1929', 'Depression', 'Macroeconomics', 'Change', and 'Globalization'http://www.investorsinsight.com/search/SearchResults.aspx?a=1&o=DateDescending&tag=Energy,Lifestyle,Capitalism,Rallies,Government,1929,Depression,Macroeconomics,Change,Globalization&orTags=0Search results matching tags 'Energy', 'Lifestyle', 'Capitalism', 'Rallies', 'Government', '1929', 'Depression', 'Macroeconomics', 'Change', and 'Globalization'en-USCommunityServer 2008.5 SP1 (Build: 31106.3070)Monday Weekly Strategyhttp://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/richard_schwartz_principles_of_the_stock_market/archive/2008/12/22/monday-weekly-strategy.aspxMon, 22 Dec 2008 14:37:00 GMT94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:2606RichardSchwartz<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><i><span style="font-size:12pt;color:aqua;font-family:&#39;Lucida Handwriting&#39;;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Lucida Handwriting&#39;;">Richard Schwartz</span></i><i><span style="font-size:12pt;color:aqua;font-family:&#39;Lucida Handwriting&#39;;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Lucida Handwriting&#39;;">&#39;s</span></i></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><b><span style="font-size:22pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">PRINCIPLES OF THE STOCK MARKET</span></span></b></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;"><font face="Times New Roman">A learning, teaching, always evolving stock market letter and advisory service<b><span style="color:maroon;"></span></b></font></span></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;"><font face="Times New Roman"><b><span style="color:purple;">Eighteenth</span><i><span style="color:red;"> Consecutive Year of Publication</span></i></b>; Letter #1; September 18<sup>th</sup>, 1990</font></span></p>
<div style="border-right:medium none;border-top:medium none;border-left:medium none;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in;">
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 0in;padding:0in;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:4pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></p>
</div>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:4pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;"><font face="Times New Roman">Post Office Box 1236 </font><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-ascii-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;mso-hansi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Symbol;">&middot;</span></span><font face="Times New Roman"> New Paltz, New York 12561 - U.S. A. </font><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-ascii-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;mso-hansi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Symbol;">&middot;</span></span><font face="Times New Roman"> (845) 255-6894</font></span></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">E-mail address:<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><a href="mailto:Richardstk@aol.com"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">RichardStk@aol.com</span></a></span></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">Subscription </span></span><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-ascii-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;mso-hansi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Symbol;">&middot;</span></span><span style="font-size:10pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"> One-Year Morning E-Mail Delivery </span></span><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-ascii-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;mso-hansi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Symbol;"><span style="mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Symbol;">&middot;</span></span><span style="font-size:10pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"> $150.00</span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;tab-stops:.5in;" class="MsoHeader"><b><span style="text-decoration:underline;"><span style="text-decoration:none;"><span style="font-size:x-small;font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></span></b></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;tab-stops:.5in;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><font size="2"><b><span style="text-decoration:underline;">Monday</span><span style="text-decoration:underline;">, December 22<sup>nd</sup>, 2008:</span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span><span style="color:blue;">So here it is, last letter &lsquo;till Monday, January 5<sup>th</sup>, as Lucy &amp; I fly off to the white sand, warm blue waters of the Caribbean, maybe on a last hurrah (if the economy keeps sliding).<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>I&rsquo;m taking </span></font><b><span style="font-size:9pt;color:blue;">Cycles of American History</span></b><span style="color:blue;"><font size="2"> &amp; </font></span><b><span style="font-size:9pt;color:blue;">Rethinking the Great Depression</span></b><span style="color:blue;"><font size="2"> books.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Our routine is:<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Go to the beach, play backgammon, read &amp; go out to dinner.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Day after day.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Warm our bones &amp; work on new tans.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span></font></span></span></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="color:#993300;font-family:&#39;Arial Black&#39;;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Arial Black&#39;;"><span style="font-size:x-small;">THE BIG PICTURE</span></span></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;"><font face="Times New Roman">Friday I saw John Bogle, who has been on Wall Street for 50 years and who created the first index fund, the <b><span style="color:teal;">Vanguard 500 Index Fund</span></b> back in 1975, say investment bankers and bankers generally owe the country a huge apology (which I doubt we ever get).<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Their imprudent speculations and greed for massive fees from too complex speculations led to today&rsquo;s financial sector problems, problems which have now fed out to the real economy hurting innocent, hard working, everyday Americans.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Mr. Bogle says greed has even spread out to our whole economy, that we&rsquo;ve morphed into in a <span style="color:blue;">&ldquo;me first&rdquo;</span> society and it&rsquo;s something we have to seriously take a look at.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Thus capitalism, allowing markets to work unfettered of regulation and based on trust and trusting, has now been <span style="color:blue;">&ldquo;deeply discredited.&rdquo;</span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Even the underpinnings of capitalism have changed radically.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>We&rsquo;re no longer an ownership society whereby individual stockholders used to select and then hold 92% of all common shares; institutions 8%.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Now institutions control 75% of shares through huge sums entrusted to them by others and have not invested prudently.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Again, because of the incredible fees they got for investing.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Mr. Bogle says they sure wouldn&rsquo;t manage their own monies so recklessly.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>These institutions were supposed to be wiser than individuals but, again, it&rsquo;s not their money.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Supporting Mr. Bogle&rsquo;s view is the revelation that 29 of the 30 largest losers in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme scandal were institutions whereby just one of these fund of fund companies was paid $160 million in 2007 alone for recommending the Madoff &ldquo;hedge fund.&rdquo;<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>In other words, where was the fiduciary responsibility, the prudency, the probity expected when we entrust institutions to manage 75% of our investments?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span><b><span style="color:maroon;">Schwartz View:</span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Regular readers know I&rsquo;ve been distressed and pounding the table about a number of these societal issues for years.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>About capitalism running amuck, culminating its 30-year trend toward widening the gap between it and its counterpart, democracy, with President Bush&rsquo;s skewed one way Texas twang policy saying the be all and end all is that <span style="color:blue;">&ldquo;bidness is bidness&rdquo;</span> and thus stifling regulation.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>And about society becoming so uncivilized, we ended up booing our own hometown, beloved sports teams!<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>So while no one wants to live through what may come next in the economy, I have to say America has finally woken up, albeit after the nightmare it usually takes to precipitate major change, and that we are now started down a long and arduous path, but one finally pointed in the right direction again.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>As one example, we&rsquo;ve even started to <b>SAVE</b> once again; amazing!<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>So, for myself, I guess sort of a contrary indicator in recent years, I&rsquo;m becoming more optimistic and bullish on our future.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Finally!<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span><b><i><span style="color:maroon;">&ldquo;Go </span></i></b><b><i><span style="color:maroon;">America</span></i></b><b><i><span style="color:maroon;"> Go!&rdquo;</span></i></b></font></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><b><span style="color:red;"><span style="font-size:x-small;"><font face="Times New Roman">THE ECONOMY</font></span></span></b></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;"><font face="Times New Roman">It became apparent that the US economy was suddenly falling-off-a-cliff right after <b><span style="color:#339966;">Lehman Brothers</span></b> became the one firm chosen <b>NOT</b> to be bailed out by the Federal Reserve and US Treasury Department.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>(Looked back upon as a colossal mistake in strategy I&rsquo;ve read.)<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Lehman&rsquo;s bankruptcy rippled out far and wide and led directly to losses in some money market funds, a <span style="color:blue;">&ldquo;breaking of the buck,&rdquo;</span> and thus then to a total loss of confidence.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Now, by all accounts, the economy is in total free fall.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>This sudden screeching halt in US business activity has caused the same in our global trading partners and most everywhere I look is now in corresponding economic free fall.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>You extrapolate it for yourselves from here.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>One view I&rsquo;m pondering is that many times sharp declines lead to the second leg of a V-move, back up, and we&rsquo;re overdue.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Maybe stocks, with their recent unwillingness to keep going lower on bad news, means Mr. Market (the consensus of large investors) sees some end out there to the economic free fall.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Still, we&rsquo;d have to see some economic revival to expect a sustained V snapback in stocks.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>For now, I see 2009 providing a steady stream of bad news every time we look up.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Just like in the second year of the last <b>Papa Bear</b> bear market, back in 1974, a continuing stream of bad news back then ultimately overwhelmed all attempts to rally until the final months of that year.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span><b><span style="color:maroon;">Schwartz View:</span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>The consensus I&rsquo;m hearing is that this sudden, fall-off-the-cliff global economic contraction is <b>NOT</b> going to lead to a repeat of the depression-spawned 1930s starting with its <b>four-year</b> long period of contraction followed by its anemic recovery, a.k.a. the Great Depression.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>I hate to follow any consensus especially when this one&rsquo;s been so wrong for so long.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>But my own history look backs and studies by Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke, an expert on what went wrong in the 1930s, turning a recession into a depression, show that we raised taxes, cut spending and blocked global trade, just the wrong policies.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>So I sure don&rsquo;t expect any exact repeat of those failed policies.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Leading me to think out of the box and that maybe today&rsquo;s Fed policy of battling a deflationary depression is also implementing incorrect strategy.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>How about worrying against runaway inflation spawning from all the money the US and now the world has and is still throwing at this economic slump?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Just the problems we worried about in the early 1930s but didn&rsquo;t occur. <span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp;</span>You know the old saying, people fight the wrong war, the old war, because that&rsquo;s what&rsquo;s still fresh in their minds.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Thus, summing up, maybe we can&rsquo;t expect much creativeness from the Fed <span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp;</span>pointing in the less obvious direction <span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp;</span>of battling inflation since they are entrusted with getting us through hard times.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>They will naturally, after learning certain lessons from the 1930s well, not break much new ground.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>One reason being that if their policies didn&rsquo;t work, they would be heavily criticized for experimenting.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Thus while everyone pooh-poohs an inflation problem, I still worry about one.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Seems like the consensus, which may be correct, among the minority expecting and talking about an inflation problem, doesn&rsquo;t expect one until 2010 at the earliest.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Keeps me thinking about that quote I printed here back on Friday, December 5<sup>th</sup>, from Sir John Templeton:<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span><span style="color:blue;">&ldquo;It&rsquo;s impossible to produce a superior performance unless you do something different from the majority.&rdquo;</span></font></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;" class="MsoHeader"><b><span style="color:red;"><span style="font-size:x-small;"><font face="Times New Roman">THE STOCK MARKET</font></span></span></b></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;tab-stops:364.5pt;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;tab-stops:364.5pt;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;font-family:Times New Roman;">Maybe we&rsquo;ve started off on a new, lasting stock market rally as many now say.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Maybe the November 20<sup>th</sup> closing low and November 21<sup>st</sup> intraday low did end this bear market or at least this phase of it and start us up and on a new mini bull market.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>But I don&rsquo;t think we can determine that from these final days of stock market trading this year.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>This jig jag, saw-tooth modest rally we&rsquo;ve had in December &ndash; the Dow remains down -2.8% this month, but up +13.6% from its closing low on November 20<sup>th</sup> &ndash; still looks like just a time killer rally to me after stocks fell -6% in September, -14% in October and another -5% in November.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>So while I&rsquo;m off on my annual winter beach vacation, I&rsquo;m leaving my managed portfolios hedged with a slight long bias, still with my modest overall about 20% or less market exposure which I&rsquo;ve carried since late last year.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>You remember late last year?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>At least as a lesson learned for the future, if for no other reason.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>After the stock market rallied back from its original car wreck in July, in what amounted to a head fake, false move, dead cat bounce and pretty obvious sucker&rsquo;s rally, and a <span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp;</span>failed break out to new highs by the Dow and S&amp;P (while the rest of the stock market refused to confirm). </span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;tab-stops:364.5pt;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;tab-stops:364.5pt;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;font-family:Times New Roman;">Anyway, last week I ended the letter by noting that <b><span style="color:purple;">psychologically</span></b> we should rally since bad news couldn&rsquo;t drive prices down in recent days.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span><b><span style="color:purple;">Technically</span></b> we had what could prove to be two months of base building everywhere I looked on the charts (but bases which could easily prove false).<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span><b><span style="color:purple;">Fundamentally</span></b> we even finally had low enough market valuations, like P/E ratios, to support a rally as well. <span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp;</span>But how about a <b><span style="color:purple;">catalyst</span></b>?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Well, let me offer up: <span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp;</span>(1) much lower gasoline prices which keeps our wallets and purses fuller and healthier, and (2) the good feelings anyone watching our president-elect making non-partisan, non-political, non-ideological selections for his cabinet, should feel.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>There may be a wellspring of good feeling, a sort of honeymoon psychological effect on investors, business, consumers and most all of us as we hope our new president can perform miracles.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span><b><span style="color:maroon;">Schwartz View:</span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Unfortunately no one man is going to remake America overnight.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>So, while keeping an open mind and watching all unfolding developments, for now I&rsquo;ll back history which says this <span style="color:blue;">&ldquo;worst financial crisis since the Great Depression&rdquo; </span>has to lead to an extended <b>Papa Bear</b> market, one which lasts at least a couple of years.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Not just for one year, where we stand today.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;tab-stops:.5in;" class="MsoHeader"><b><span style="font-size:x-small;font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></b></p>
<p align="center" style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;text-align:center;tab-stops:.5in;" class="MsoHeader"><span style="font-size:x-small;"><font face="Times New Roman"><b><span style="color:maroon;">PORTFOLIO</span></b><span style="color:maroon;"> <b>STRATEGY</b></span></font></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">I hate to follow or even agree with some of what I&rsquo;m hearing about going forward strategy, especially if such is espoused by those who were so wrong all this year.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>I&rsquo;m speaking specifically about Bob Doll, now at <b><span style="color:navy;">BlackRock</span></b> as their <b><span style="color:lime;">&ldquo;Trillion Dollar&rdquo;</span></b> fund manager.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>I don&rsquo;t want to pick on anyone but since he&rsquo;s been leading the charge forward as stock markets collapse and getting all the face time doing such, I guess I have to.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>I start off very skeptical because my belief is that these big money managers are not going to get on TV and recommend anything before they and their clients get first crack at their thinking, ideas and recommendations and position themselves accordingly.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>I already wrote awhile back many old stock market books talk extensively about how big money always used to try to sucker the little investors.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>The age old technical Wall Street term <b><span style="color:purple;">&ldquo;distribution&rdquo;</span></b> implied big guys needed little guys to unload their big positions on to when they foresaw a bear market ahead and thus put on a bullish face.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>It took much time to unload huge positions these large investors stockpiled so much frenzied excitement about the stock market had to be built up as big money sold.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>What better way today than<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Bob Doll coming on <b>CNBC</b> ubiquitously and always saying we are now in a bottoming process.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>He said that back in March and those who followed him are much the worst after the October panic crash.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Anyway, that&rsquo;s all secondary, although supporting, my main point.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>My main point is that Mr. Doll now says next year is going to be a good one for those taking on risk, not for those playing it safe.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Again sounds good to me, at least at first blush.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>We all know what goes down the most generally can bounce tremendously when psychology changes.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>But do we really want to buy really risky investments in just the early part of the second year of a big, bad bear market?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>I say no.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>Bear markets of this size and scope historically have taken a lot longer than one year to work through.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span></span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">Net, net, probably Mr. Doll will be proven correct about taking on risk, if one doesn&rsquo;t factor in any time period.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>I&rsquo;d guess risky asset classes will move fast when this bear market ultimately does end but do I really believe its going to end soon?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>No.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>And if we do have a 2009 mini bull market, say because stocks have fallen so much, then I&rsquo;m not going to count on Bob and other institutional investors to tell me and us exactly when to get back out.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp; </span>No, starting off next year next week, I&rsquo;d suggest still playing our cards close to the vest.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes;">&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Yes, play modestly for a continuing rally but look at it for now as just a bear market rally.</span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10pt;color:aqua;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">Happy Holidays &amp; Happy New Year!</span></span></b></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></p>
<p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10pt;color:maroon;font-family:&#39;Lucida Handwriting&#39;;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Lucida Handwriting&#39;;">Richard</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>