Each year Australia's population increases as a result of net overseas migration (the excess of permanent and long-term arrivals over permanent and long-term departures, with an adjustment for category jumping) and natural increase (the excess of births over deaths).

At 30 June 2002, the ERP of Australia was 19.7 million. Over the preceding 12 months the population increased by 249,500 persons, representing a national population growth rate of 1.3% since 30 June 2001. In 2001-02 the estimate of net overseas migration was 133,700, representing 54% of Australia's population growth for the year. The net overseas migration figure is preliminary because of deficiencies which have been identified in the measurement of category jumping, resulting in category jumping being set to zero pending a review (table 5.32).

Overseas migration has played an important role in changing Australia's population. In the year ending 30 June 2003, 373,800 people arrived in Australia intending to stay for one year or more (table 5.32). This included permanent (settler) arrivals, Australian residents returning from an overseas trip of 12 months or more, and overseas visitors intending to stay 12 months or more in Australia. About 219,600 people left Australia for overseas on a permanent or long-term basis in the year ending 30 June 2003, including Australian residents emigrating or going overseas for 12 months or more, and overseas visitors leaving Australia after staying for 12 months or more.

Because population estimates include permanent and long-term movers and exclude short-term movers, adjustments are required for the net effect of changes in travel intention from short-term to permanent/long-term and vice versa. For example, an Australian resident may state on departure an intention to stay abroad for less than 12 months (a short-term movement). If this resident remains overseas for 12 months or more, he or she has changed travel category from short-term to long-term and is regarded as a category jumper. Estimates for category jumping ensure that the estimated population reflects the population who usually live in Australia. However, due to problems identified in the processing of information on traveller intentions, category jumping from September quarter 1997 has been set to zero pending a review.

5.32 NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION COMPONENTS-Selected years

Year ended 30 June

1983

1993

1998

2001

2002

2003

Arrivals

Permanent (settlers)

93,011

76,330

77,327

107,366

88,900

93,914

Long-term

Australian residents

48,986

69,594

84,358

82,893

88,598

95,784

Overseas visitors

30,742

57,842

103,756

158,311

175,873

184,095

Total

172,739

203,766

265,441

348,570

353,371

373,793

Departures

Permanent departures

24,830

27,905

31,985

46,521

48,241

50,463

Long-term

Australian residents

47,020

65,446

79,422

92,945

92,071

86,211

Overseas visitors

25,438

47,744

74,872

73,431

79,375

82,894

Total

97,288

141,095

186,279

212,897

219,687

219,568

Category jumping(a)

-2,155

-32,629

-

-

-

-

Net overseas migration

73,296

30,042

79,162

135,673

133,684

154,225

(a) Deficiencies identified in the measurement of category jumping have led to the decision to set category jumping to zero for periods from September 1997, pending a review.

Source: Migration, Australia (3412.0).

There has been a significant change in the source countries of permanent arrivals, with settlers arriving from more diverse regions of the world since the mid-1990s compared to the early-1980s. In 1982-83, 28% of settler arrivals to Australia were born in the United Kingdom, 9% were born in Vietnam and 7% were born in New Zealand. In 2002-03, the United Kingdom and New Zealand both contributed 13% of all settler arrivals, although in 2001-02 settler arrivals born in the United Kingdom only contributed 10% of all settler arrivals in that year. Settler arrivals born in China (7%), India (6%) and South Africa (5%) all contributed 5% or more of all settlers in 2002-03, compared to only 1%, 2% and 3% respectively in 1982-83 (table 5.33).

5.33 COUNTRY OF BIRTH OF SETTLER ARRIVALS- Selected years

no.

%

1982-83

China (excl. SARs &Taiwan Prov.)

1,167

1.3

India

1,673

1.8

New Zealand

6,867

7.4

South Africa

2,758

3.0

United Kingdom

26,444

28.4

Vietnam

8,690

9.3

All settler arrivals

93,011

100.0

1992-93

China (excl. SARs &Taiwan Prov.)

3,046

4.0

India

3,553

4.7

New Zealand

6,694

8.8

South Africa

1,021

1.3

United Kingdom

9,484

12.4

Vietnam

5,651

7.4

All settler arrivals

76,330

100.0

2001-02

China (excl. SARs &Taiwan Prov.)

6,708

7.5

India

5,091

5.7

New Zealand

15,663

17.6

South Africa

5,714

6.4

United Kingdom

8,749

9.8

Vietnam

1,919

2.2

All settler arrivals

88,900

100.0

2002-03

China (excl. SARs &Taiwan Prov.)

6,664

7.1

India

5,783

6.2

New Zealand

12,368

13.2

South Africa

4,603

4.9

United Kingdom

12,508

13.3

Vietnam

2,568

2.7

All settler arrivals

93,914

100.0

Source: Migration, Australia (3412.0).

Migration Program

In 2001-02, 88,900 people arrived in Australia intending to settle, the majority of whom (67%) arrived as part of the Migration Program. Another 8% arrived as part of the Humanitarian Program, while 24% were eligible to settle in Australia because of their New Zealand citizenship.

The number of visas issued to prospective settlers varies significantly from year-to-year. So too does the balance between the types of visas issued. Table 5.34 shows that in the six years to 2001-02, the proportion of settlers arriving under the skilled migration category ranged from 23% in 1996-97 to 41% in 2001-02.

Of skilled migrants arriving in 2001-02, 20% came from Europe and the former USSR (70% of whom were from the United Kingdom and Ireland), while South-East Asia contributed 22% and Africa (excluding North Africa) contributed 18%. North-East Asia and Southern Asia contributed 16% each of skilled immigrants to Australia during 2001-02.

In 2001-02, 26% of settlers came as part of the family component of Australia's immigration program. The birthplaces of these immigrants partly reflect past migration patterns. About 25% were born in Europe and the former USSR, 25% were born in South-East Asia, and a further 16% were born in North-East Asia.

Of the 6,700 settlers arriving as part of the Humanitarian Program, 2,400 (36%) came from Europe and the former USSR, almost all of whom were from Southern Europe (in particular, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia). A further 2,400 immigrants (36%) arriving on humanitarian visas were born in North Africa and the Middle East.

During 2001-02, in addition to the 66,300 settler arrivals under the Migration and Humanitarian Programs, there were a further 22,600 non-program (i.e. non-visaed) arrivals. Traditionally, non-program migrants are predominantly New Zealand citizens, and they accounted for 95% of non-program migrants in 2001-02. Under the Trans-Tasman Agreement, New Zealand citizens are free to travel to Australia and remain indefinitely without applying for a visa.