Caught up now myself and I basically agree with most people here re: Jay being way more guilty than he let on, but also that it doesn't mean Adnan is innocent. Jay's inclusion of how he might be connected with specific details, like handling a shovel, seemed very obviously to get a reason out there fast about how any evidence found that tied to him could be explained. As for Adnan, one thing that really struck me was how he didn't try to get in touch with Hae once he knew she was missing, unlike all her/their friends. The tape of the phone call where SK asks him about it, how he was stuttering and stammering, unable to come up with any reason for it at all, was a big red flag for me. I thought, "Well, you didn't bother trying to phone or text her because you knew where she was."

Another thing that seemed obvious was the big ways in which the investigation dropped the ball. I mean, the changes in Jay's story were significant - you'd think that would have really pinged the detectives. It seemed clear that the police were willing to work to the standard template of ex-boyfriend kills girlfriend, once they had a source that could reasonably support it (or be coached to - those untaped 3 hours is a lot of time to make sure your guy has a good story).

I don't believe for a minute that Jay was basically bullied into helping Adnan bury the body, or else Adnan would turn him into the police. Really? Being arrested as a drug dealer is worse than being an accomplice to murder? So yeah, whatever went on involved both of them, and it feels like Jay played much more of a lead role.

It's interesting because the way Hae was killed - being strangled - was so personal and intimate, I think, and so indicative of rage and anger. It wasn't an accident - at some point the killer deliberately crossed the line into knowing he/she was killing her and choose to do it. I don't believe it was a random killing (and, say, Jay and/or Adnan came across her body, panicked, and tried to get rid of it). It really had to be someone close enough to her (or close to someone who was) that whatever happened to set this off came from a deeply personal place directly linked to Hae.

My pet theory is that Hae confronted Jay about cheating on Stephanie, threatening to tell, and Jay lost it. But I'm sure I'm forgetting some critical piece of evidence that disproves it. I have yet to read a theory that didn't have a major flaw in logic, to include the prosecution's story. Absolutely none of this makes sense to me.

sagitare wrote:Caught up now myself and I basically agree with most people here re: Jay being way more guilty than he let on, but also that it doesn't mean Adnan is innocent. Jay's inclusion of how he might be connected with specific details, like handling a shovel, seemed very obviously to get a reason out there fast about how any evidence found that tied to him could be explained. As for Adnan, one thing that really struck me was how he didn't try to get in touch with Hae once he knew she was missing, unlike all her/their friends. The tape of the phone call where SK asks him about it, how he was stuttering and stammering, unable to come up with any reason for it at all, was a big red flag for me. I thought, "Well, you didn't bother trying to phone or text her because you knew where she was."

Another thing that seemed obvious was the big ways in which the investigation dropped the ball. I mean, the changes in Jay's story were significant - you'd think that would have really pinged the detectives. It seemed clear that the police were willing to work to the standard template of ex-boyfriend kills girlfriend, once they had a source that could reasonably support it (or be coached to - those untaped 3 hours is a lot of time to make sure your guy has a good story).

I don't believe for a minute that Jay was basically bullied into helping Adnan bury the body, or else Adnan would turn him into the police. Really? Being arrested as a drug dealer is worse than being an accomplice to murder? So yeah, whatever went on involved both of them, and it feels like Jay played much more of a lead role.

It's interesting because the way Hae was killed - being strangled - was so personal and intimate, I think, and so indicative of rage and anger. It wasn't an accident - at some point the killer deliberately crossed the line into knowing he/she was killing her and choose to do it. I don't believe it was a random killing (and, say, Jay and/or Adnan came across her body, panicked, and tried to get rid of it). It really had to be someone close enough to her (or close to someone who was) that whatever happened to set this off came from a deeply personal place directly linked to Hae.

I agree with a lot of this. To the bolded: I think the changes were because of coaching (intentional or unintentional on the part of the officers). So the officers weren't bothered because they were part of those changes.

jstilwe wrote:My pet theory is that Hae confronted Jay about cheating on Stephanie, threatening to tell, and Jay lost it. But I'm sure I'm forgetting some critical piece of evidence that disproves it. I have yet to read a theory that didn't have a major flaw in logic, to include the prosecution's story. Absolutely none of this makes sense to me.

This is the only motive that makes sense to me. I just don't buy that Adnan was so upset over the breakup that he planned to kill Hae. And we haven't been introduced to anyone else who both knew Jay and had any kind of motive. Stephanie seems to have meant the world to Jay, like he would do anything not to lose her. Also, I think if Jay killed Hae, it was at the bar/pool hall. That could explain the changing locations of where he first saw Hae's body- Jay doesn't want the police going to the pool hall where he was buying/selling weed.

I find it hard to believe that Adnan has basically gone 15 years in prison without any sort of altercations/fights/disciplinary actions against him if he were the kind of person who would snap and murder someone. Or if he were a sociopath.

Things that make me think Adnan could be somehow involved: The Nisha call, and Adnan saying "pathetic" to Jay at his trial. Why "pathetic"? That doesn't seem like something you say to someone who is falsely accusing you of murder.

My personal pet theory was that Hae had planned to meet Jay to buy weed at unnamed location on the way to pick up her cousin, and to later smoke with Don. Now the idea that she may have also wanted to confront Jay about cheating, or was using the weed buy as a ruse, makes that even more likely.

The timing is otherwise too crazy for me to contemplate because Summer says she was arguing w/Hae about the wrestling team situation until as last as 2:45, and someone else claims they saw Hae on campus as late as 3pm. And this while she's trying to complete two errands.

I think my problem is that I believe Asia, I believe Summer, I basically believe Adnan was at the library and he was at track. No matter how hard I try I can't make myself believe one word out of Jay or Jenn's mouth. Like that's a big piece for me for Jay to be telling the truth, even mostly the truth, they all have to be mistaken or lying including Adnan's devoutly religious father.

This post on the Serial web site seems to cast some doubt on Asia's alibi for Adnan, though. For those who don't want to read it, it says that they looked into the weather reports for the date of Hae's disappearance, and it didn't snow on Jan. 13. Asia's memory of that day was linked to the fact that she remembered it was snowing, and they ended up having snow days for a few days after that. They did have snow days after that, so I still think it's possible she's remembering the right day, just that she's mistaken about when it started snowing.

Also, this timeline graphic is really damning for Jay, I think. It just makes no sense that your story would change so much, especially in ways that are so seemingly pointless.

They did have snow days after that, so I still think it's possible she's remembering the right day, just that she's mistaken about when it started snowing.

No, I read that post, but I thought her memory was tied to her boyfriend standing her up (which is how she started talking to Adnan) and getting stuck at his house due to weather which did happen, and would have been DEFCON four levels of weather advisories on the local news even the evening before (especially in the south). There is no reference to it having been snowing in her original statement, so I'm not surprised 15 years later she's not remembering January 13th, 1999 with perfect recall. I really don't think it undermines her letters/affadavits though. Heh, I think my confirmation bias is stepping in.

Yeah those Jay timelines are all nuts, so I guess I have to hand it to the prosecution for culling anything remotely narratively satisfying from that mess. My favorite is how in each story he drops Adnan off to make an appearance at Track Practice between 5-6pm when Track Practice was like over.

violetq wrote:This is the only motive that makes sense to me. I just don't buy that Adnan was so upset over the breakup that he planned to kill Hae.

Agreed, yes. There's the bit from Hae's diary which intimates that Adnan was reacting inappropriately but that might have been referring to, like, one encounter between them and sure, he's was bound to be unhappy about the breakup, but I think one of Jay's earliest interviews with police describe Adnan as being all, "I'm going to kill the bitch" and absolutely no one else confirmed that Adnan ever displayed that level of anger or hate. Jay was the only one to attempt to paint Adnan as someone harbouring a lot of ugly feelings and thoughts below the surface. Like Violetq noted, it's hard to believe that sort of personality hasn't resurfaced at all in the past 15 years, so I just didn't buy the prosecution's motive or Jay's description of Adnan - again, not saying he wasn't involved at all, but not for that reason.

ETA: good point, Matinee about Jay's changing story. I can imagine that the detectives heard the original version, could see how it'd fit into their ex-boyfriend template, and assisted Jay in massaging the details.

I was kind of stunned by SK's dismissal of the idea these cops weren't influenced by ethnic and racial bias. Adnan's mom didn't say it was the only reason they went after Adnan, she said it was the only reason she could *understand*, and most likely played into the already raging confirmation bias that "the boyfriend/ex" did it. It was surprising because I thought those articles about her white privilege were thoughtful/important, yet still overblown and not accurate representations of her handling of race to that point. Then the very week after two huge polarizing racially loaded grand jury decisions, she busts out with the most honky privilege comment yet. I realize she might have just used that for dramatic effect to illustrate that indeed, bias is powerful and present even when it's not intentional and deliberate (though how or why she would choose to spin the prosecutors bail arguments as anything other than calculated..IDEK), but I still think it was a profoundly wrong note to strike.

Her review of Cynthia Guiterriez defense though, was compassionate, but critical and fair. Oh and now thanks to SK mentioning the Witman case I'm following that too. So many tragic notes in this episode CG's illness degrading her performance, Adnan love and respect for her despite what her errors might have cost him, and his fatalism about the justice system re: pleas. UGH.

For anyone interested in the extra textual stuff I found a great blog run by a lawyer and fair warning she is, not so much Pro Adnan, as she is, like myself skeptical of Jay, but the post I linked to has some great analysis of Jay's statements.

Spoiler:

She focuses on even more testimony from Jay that reeks of subjective first person most of it about killing Hae, moving the car, moving her shoes, and burying her. OH and the part that really creeped me out his almost Buffalo Bill-esque description of the RED GLOVES: "they were wool, with leather palms". Um okay why are you that weirdly specfic about the fabrics and how they contrasted?!

Haha that is so me, I know NO ONE IRL listening and the people I have harassed to listen are non-compliant and stalled out at episode 4.

There is one other big thing from that lawyer blog that's relevant to the states timeline and also why CG didn't ever follow up with Asia McClain.

Spoiler:

Basically for the bulk of the pre-trail investigation all parties (Jay/Jenn/The State, The Defense) were working with a 'come and get me"/time of death as 3:40 pm, if Hae was killed during that time Asia's testimony wouldn't matter cause it covered 2:30-2:45. The 2:36 pm ToD/call were added at trial in last minute kind of way.

was compassionate, but critical and fair. Oh and now thanks to SK mentioning the Witman case I'm following that too. So many tragic notes in this episode CG's illness degrading her performance,

In many ways I thought it was way too compassionate, particularly with all the issues regarding money and not hiring the experts; particularly in the case of the Witman case. It made me wonder what was going on in her office that with all these clerks working on the cases so many things managed to slip through the cracks.

What I think was going on was that she was getting sicker, but was surrounded be people who wanted to help her continue to be the "pit bull on the pant leg of justice."

I worked for over three years doing social work/case management for people living with MS, and so many of the things about Gutierrez that SK talked about make so much more sense in the context of someone with MS who was starting to decline, but was loathe to admit it. The MS piece made so much sense - when she said it, in passing, I went "OH. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh!" out loud - that I was pretty shocked she didn't discuss it more. There are so many things she mentioned that could have been exacerbated or caused by the MS - the cognitive changes mentioned can be HUGE, along with emotional changes (including depression, generalized anxiety, emotional lability [big-time highs and lows], and inappropriate behavior). Stress and general ill health (like, say, diabetes and smoking) can exacerbate symptoms. It put many pieces of the puzzle in place for me, and I wish it had been discussed more. So much of her oddness could be explained by the MS, but without that context, it seems like she was just a crazy asshole. Which maybe she was! But ALSO she was someone with MS, which absolutely had to be a factor in some of her behavior.

There are so many things she mentioned that could have been exacerbated or caused by the MS - the cognitive changes mentioned can be HUGE, along with emotional changes (including depression, generalized anxiety, emotional lability [big-time highs and lows], and inappropriate behavior). Stress and general ill health (like, say, diabetes and smoking) can exacerbate symptoms. It put many pieces of the puzzle in place for me, and I wish it had been discussed more. So much of her oddness could be explained by the MS, but without that context, it seems like she was just a crazy asshole. Which maybe she was! But ALSO she was someone with MS, which absolutely had to be a factor in some of her behavior.

Right, I have MS, and can say, I became way moodier than I ever was before diagnoses and experienced a few months of severe brain plotz at work that resulted in a series of minor fuck ups. luckily it was a temporary, so far one time thing. The National MS Society explains the cognitive effects here. Most crucially it can manifest in difficulty making decisions and showing poor judgement pretty much exactly what her behavior on Adnan's case looked like. It's also the reason she might not have had the rational clarity to step back out of practice. If she was truly in a progressive stage of disease this would have been very likely.

Oh yeah, once SK talked that Christina Gutierrez had MS + diabetes (diabetes does also often have cognitive effects, especially if it is poorly controlled), a lot about her behaviour made sense to me. Given neurocognitive impairment is my area of work, I had wondered in earlier episodes if she had been suffering from a neurodegenerative condition. Depending on which areas of the brain are most affected by the MS pathology, you see a variety of symptoms, but attentional impairment is a very common one and partly as a consequence of that so is memory impairment, a slowing of the pace at which you can process information, difficulty with planning/complex decision-making,... It's sometimes amazing how long smart people (i.e., with a high level of cognitive resources prior to the illness), which definitely applies to someone in Christina Gutierrez's line of work, can manage to keep up appearances, especially if they have a staff and/or a spouse that support them to manage daily tasks. I've seen similar cases with doctors or high-level finance people who were quite far along in a neurodegenerative disorder, and were somehow still working. However, mistakes/change in work performance is also usually what triggers their landing in my office.

By the way, blixie, thank you for the link to that blog. Fascinating stuff, and just more to think about!

Here's what I can't get my head around. Even if jay killed hae, I can't see a way Adnan wasn't involved. By his own words they were hanging out that night. His comment on jays testimony as pathetic is not what I'd expect if someone killed your ex girlfriend and set you up for it. Combined with the minimizing of a friendship with someone he regularly loaned his car to and spent an admitted good deal of time hanging out with, I can't see a scenario where they weren't both involved.

It still reads to me like a duo killing where the cops lead one of the pair into a good story for conviction, targeting the one with the "better motive".

Still the most striking thing to me about it all is that the independent detective judged this as "good work". A colleague of mine does research on coerced confession and lead eyewitness accounts. I really want him to listen to this so we can talk about it.

Carrie Ann wrote:He laid it out way better than it was in my head, but yeah that's the only story I would believe in which Adnan is guilty. I would still find it odd that he never flipped on Jay though.

The fact that he had the clearer motive would be my guess. And who got to the police first.

Yeah I've never dismissed the idea that Jay was there, Jay was very obviously THERE when Hae died, I just don't see any evidence that Adnan was there too. He had a weak motive, and I can't even say he had opportunity, given that a plausible ToD to this day has not been established.

I find Susan (the lawyer) bloggers evidence based speculations the most believable, but she's not particularly concerned with crafting an alternate theory (or proving Adnan innocent), and I've tried to resist getting too sucked into that either, the evidence I have, even with the podcast, is just too circumspect to even try. Jay's statements which constitute 90% of the case have only made me convinced he did it/was there. The pieces of evidence that make me question Adnan's innocence are: asking Hae for ride/lying about his car (Krista), Nisha Call, Leakin Park ping, not calling Hae when he knows she is missing, I'm gonna kill note and I can think of reasonable/possible non-murder explanations for each one of those things.