News

2003 bushfire’s behaviour was unpredictable

No one could have predicted the speed of the bushfires of January 18, 2003, the counsel acting for former Emergency Services Bureau executive director Mike Castle and former chief fire control officer Peter Lucas-Smith told the ACT Coroner’s Court yesterday.

The Canberra Times reports that Peter Hastings, QC said all models the fire services had been working off predicted the fire wouldn’t reach Canberra’s suburbs until at least 8 that night. The fires hit at approximately 3 in the afternoon.

In his final submission Mr Hastings told the court that through their criticism of the two men, counsel assisting the coroner seemed to expect Mr Lucas-Smith and Mr Castle to have “some prescience no one else showed”.

Weekly Newsletter

Every Thursday afternoon, we package up the most-read and trending RiotACT stories of the past seven days and deliver straight to your inbox..

The court heard that the fire covered 12km between 1pm and 3pm, travelling about three times faster than anyne had predicted. In a submission made by Mr Lucas-Smith and Mr Castle, planner Hilton Taylor said, “The fire just seemed to burn across bare ground, defying all the models.”

Mr Hastings also recalled Mr Lucas-Smith earlier evidence to the inquest that he did warn residents on the western side of the ACT, particularly those in Weston Creek, in a noon press conference on January 18 to take precautions and prepare for the fire. These warnings were repeated in the local ABC radio’s 1pm news bulletin.

The Emergency Service Bureau also prepared a standard emergency warning signal for broadcast, which were apparently approved just after 2pm but could not be sent until 2.40, just 20 minutes before the fires hit Duffy, because of problems with their fax machine.

You might well be right, Thumper. It’s just amazing to see how certain people in charge dropped the ball comprehensively, and appear to be getting away with it.

Anyone remember the edition of Canberra Stateline afterwards, when they interviewed Phil Koperberg? That was a real eye opener. HE and his lot predicted the fires’ behaviours alright, called up every NSW firie and had them ready to go, despite his counterpart in the ACT telling them to go away. Koperberg had plenty to say on that Stateline edition, although later he was more circumspect. The fires’ behaviour seemed to be predicted by Val Jeffery at Tharwa, too. Yet there they are, arguing that black is white.

I have the link here to the thread on a big weather forum, which started around January 7th, after the lightning strikes started the fires. We’d been avidly watching the front that brought the strikes, hoping for storms and rain.
The thread explores the development of the fires, day by day, until the day they struck, and afterwards. So their behaviour couldn’t be predicted, eh? Rubbish.

I knew it was time to go the evening before. I had my mother staying with me. She used to live in a semi-rural area north of Sydney and got evacuated due to fire many, many times. At about 1pm the day the fire hit I asked her: “Did you ever get left without being evacuated in conditions like this before?”

Her answer was “HELL NO! we were gone hours before it ever got this bad”; and so we started packing.

Yes, it was easy to predict that it would hit the urban area. Especially on the morning of the 18th. Howling gales from the South West, incredible temperatures, tinder dry bush from recent hot weather and lack of rain, and the not insignificant fact that there was a rather large fire out there.

Bullshead was a fireball only days before when we pulled out. And we got stood down on the night of the 17th at about 2230 or something. I recall the night sky had an evil orange sort of glow out to the south west.

And once it got there nothing was going to stop it.

And residents should have had 24, maybe 48 hours warning. As it was they got no warning at all until they saw the red stuff bearing down on them.

In my opinion the government totally and utterly failed the ACT public in regard to the fires. And then to compound this they attempted to hide this by slowly and surely turning the blame away from themselves, and finally, tried to disrail the coroner.

The fires WERE predicted, weeks out, by a bunch of weather geeks on a website I hang out on. Their behaviour, their ferocity, the lot. I’ll try and find a link to the discussion. Val Jeffery at Tharwa also seemed to know what was going to happen.

You said more than that with your unusually juvenille “strikethorough” side-comment.

I’d agree if your point is that Kerces probably could have phrased the headline and the first line better to make it clear that these are merely government claims at the inquest, not facts. But that didn’t seem to be the point you were making.

–> Simto: I’m just saying the claims of a lawyer in defence of a client are not a credible source. What the coroner decides having heard the evidence is the important information.

–> Big Al: I agree completely. But when the Government has been making public statements that there is no danger, when they know there is a danger, then I think the public have a right to be angry about that.

Yeah, because for one reason or another it seems so many Canberrans have become used to having the nanny state wipe their arse for them â€“ instead of making up their own mind, taking a little responsibility for themselves and acting in their own best interests they say around that afternoon waiting for the nice man from the Government to come and hold their hand for them â€¦ now we have to find someone to blame, because surely their own incapacity to look after themselves cant be the problem.