Monday, 27 November 2017

Saturday, 25 November 2017

Please note that the most recent poll incorporated in this update is from the beginning of this month. At that time, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail seemed to do quite a bit better than their GE 2016 result.

Sunday, 12 February 2017

Friday, 7 October 2016

In the
first Irish Polling Indicator for the 32nd Dáil, Fine Gael and
Fianna Fáil are leading the polls with estimates around 26% each. The Irish
Polling Indicator pools all Irish opinion polls to arrive at an overall
estimate of where the parties stand. Fine Gael support has not changed since
the February elections. The party is currently estimated at between 24.5% and
28.5%. Fianna Fáil had seen a bit of an increase in support in early July, but
is currently back around General Election levels: 22.5% to 28%. The difference between
the two top parties is so small that we cannot conclude which one is currently
enjoying more popular support in vote intention polls.

Sinn Féin
is doing relatively well in opinion polls. The party is now at 18.5% (plus or
minus 2%), which is higher than the 13.8% they obtained in the February
elections. The problem with estimating Sinn Féin support, however, is that most
of the time they do better in polls than in actual elections. In the very last
Polling Indicator before the elections in February, the party was estimated to
stand at 16.5%, but it achieved only 13.8% of the vote four days later on Election
Day. An
analysis by Red C suggests that late swing could explain most of this gap,
but polls might also overestimate Sinn Féin support for other reasons
(sampling, likely voter weighting). Whatever the reason, the current standing
of 18.5% is higher than the last Sinn Féin estimates in the February
pre-election polls, so their increase in support seems at least partly real.

As it
stands, Independent candidates (including the Independent Alliance) have been
losing some ground since February. They are currently estimated at 13.5% (between
11.5% and 16%), which is about 4% lower than their February result. We should
note that one pollster, Millward Brown, had them significantly lower than all
other polling companies at 8%. Still, most pollsters have independents at
14%-16% in their most recent polls, which is somewhat of a decrease compared to
the election result.

Labour
shows no signs of recovery after their election defeat in February. Support for
the former government party is actually quite stable at 6.5% (plus or minus 1.5%),
which is almost exactly what they obtained in February. We see something
similar for the smaller political groupings with AAA-PBP at 4.5%, the Green
Party at 2.5% and the Social Democrats at 2%. Only for the Social Democrats
this is statistically significantly lower than in February (but only
marginally). For all of the smaller parties a margin of error of around plus or
minus 1% applies.

Renua
Ireland, which failed to win any seats in February, seems not to be doing very
well in the polls. Because not all pollsters report separate figures for Renua,
it is included in the ‘Others’ grouping, but that is polling only half a
percentage point in total. Even if all of that support were for Renua, this
does not bode well for the party. Indeed in most polls Renua is on 0 or less
than one percent. The Worker’s Partyalso
finds some support in some opinion polls, but likewise is not separately
reported in all polls.

All in all,
the picture that arises is one of relative stability. Despite the erratic
process of government formation, at least for Irish standards, voters do not
seem to be moving towards or away from the Fine Gael minority government, at
least not in significant numbers. Perhaps the decrease in support for independents
might be linked to independent support for the government, but this is not
clear, as there are also many independent candidates that are not involved in
the minority government. The Independent Alliance, which is separately reported
in some polls, does not seem to gain or lose support.

Tuesday, 23 February 2016

Only a few
days before the election, polls continue to indicate that this might be the
election of the independent candidates and smaller parties. The group of
Independents and others has improved their total score from about 22% early
this year to 25% in the latest Irish Polling Indicator, which combines all
opinion polls into one estimate. Within that group the Social Democrats are
doing particularly well recently, currently polling well over 3%, with AAA-PBP
on almost 4% and Renua on 2%. Independent candidates, including the Independent
alliance, are now on more than 14% support.

Sinn Féin,
on the other hand, has seen a significant decline in support: from 19% in
January to under 17% now. In 2015, the party was even competing with Fine Gael
for first place, but that seems far out of reach now. Compared to the last
election, seventeen per centis still a
considerable increase, but as in previous election the party seems to lose some
support during the last weeks of campaigning.

The
government parties are not getting any campaign boost either. Fine Gael did
very well in the last part of 2015, but its momentum has stalled. The party is
now at 28.5%, which puts the party in the lead, but it probably won’t be enough
to save the coalition. This is also due to the poor showing of Labour, which is
at 6.5% in the most recent Polling Indicator. This is a marginal decline from
early this year (-1%), just at the borders of the margin of error.

Fianna Fáil
is doing relatively well at 21%. There seems to be a modestly positive trend
for the party over the last weeks, but this is also inside of the margin of
error. With Sinn Féin slipping, however, Fianna Fáil is now the second party in
the polls. Their former coalition partner, the Green Party, has improved a
little bit over the last few months, but it still polling at low levels: just
over 2%.

This is
where the polls stand a couple of days before the elections, but it is
important to note that some people still need to make up their minds. In most
polls, more than 10% of respondents are still undecided. Moreover, the gap
between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is much wider in some polls (10% with Red C)
than others (4% with Millward Brown). This averages out to about 7.5% in the
Polling Indicator, but the large discrepancies between pollsters point to some
uncertainty as to exactly how big Fine Gael’s lead is.

Monday, 22 February 2016

Sunday, 21 February 2016

Three new polls were published yesterday, each taken over two or more days in the past week. While their messages were mixed, the overall impact on the Irish Polling Indicator polling average is limited. Generally, Labour and Sinn Féin seem not to be doing particularly well this campaign, with Fine Gael also showing a loss of momentum. Fianna Fáil and some of the smaller parties, particularly the Green Party and Social Democrats seem to be doing relatively well. But it is important to note that most of these changes are within the relevant 95% uncertainty margin, meaning that we cannot be too sure about these patterns.

We're expecting a new Ipsos MRBI poll to come out tomorrow, after which I'll publish an updated polling average here with analysis on the Irish Times website.