Scarcity is indeed the problem, but that doesn't mean the solution can't be the wrong one and thus also be the problem. Scarcity is solved in the real world with markets, something Burning Man is resistant to. And while much of what is said is true, here are some comments and corrections:

a) It is possible to handle immense ticket loads without many servers if you design it right. Burning Man's vendors did not design it right. I am not a fan of FCFS myself, but if I had to do it, I could do it in a way that it wouldn't crash if a million people all wanted tickets at the same instant. The way you do that is you hand out not tickets, but an electronic token that lets you finish the ticket purchase later at your leisure. Everything else is done at a slow pace, the only thing you do when the bell rings is provide your proof-of-credit token and get back your "OK, you can buy a ticket" token. Even a single server can do that many times a second, and today you can buy 10,000 servers for a few minutes if you need it. But yes, scalpers can participate in this.

b) You don't do non-transferable tickets with a NAME and ID. That's privacy invading and slow and almost like a will-call. You do them with a face. The ticket taker has a tablet or phone. They scan the ticket. Up pops the pre-stored jpeg the ticket buyer provided. You look at them, you look at the screen, you let them in. No will call. Takes a few seconds, faster than studying a foil stamped ticket for forgery actually. And you don't know their name. It doesn't have to be their face, it can be their tattoo or genitals or licence plate if you like.

c) 1.1M views is a lot for a burning man video, for sure, but not that much of a deal on YouTube. I doubt those videos contributed to more than 1,000 virgins deciding they would buy a ticket to the Playa. I do agree there are huge numbers of people who say "I must go to Burning Man some day" and each year some of them do, but I doubt the video bumped it that much. If I read reports right, about getting double the number of expected entries, that means there were at least 150,000 entries because anybody would have expected at least 75,000 -- in fact 75,000 is a crazy low estimate. That's not newbies and people who watched a video.

I think the tickets went to oversubscribers and speculators, but I don't know in what ratio.

lets wait till september to see if we have a problem, sure tickets havent gone to the peope who feel entitled or deserving. but it may, just may make Bm soemthing new and exciting. if it doesnt well we can always have a different plan next year if you dont like the idea of going to something different from what yo expect well DONT GO

FREE THE SHERPASBurners with torches is right and natural and just.-fishy.CATCH AND RELEASE.

bradtem wrote:b) You don't do non-transferable tickets with a NAME and ID. That's privacy invading and slow and almost like a will-call. You do them with a face. The ticket taker has a tablet or phone. They scan the ticket. Up pops the pre-stored jpeg the ticket buyer provided. You look at them, you look at the screen, you let them in. No will call. Takes a few seconds, faster than studying a foil stamped ticket for forgery actually. And you don't know their name. It doesn't have to be their face, it can be their tattoo or genitals or licence plate if you like.

i don't see how this prevents scalping, if that's the intent. the scalper could just send you a jpeg of the face or tattoo or license plate that was used to buy the ticketfor you to present at the gate as your 'proof' that it's your ticket.

as long as anyone is willing to pay more than face value for a ticket, there will be scalpers.the tiers do make it easier, for example to justify paying $390 for a $240 ticket, thus incentivizing those seeking to make a profit on what is now a limited commodity...

robrob wrote:Those are all great technical ideas, but they do nothing to solve the real problem imo... 70,000 to 80,000 people want 50,000 tickets.

Probably more like 60,000. Correct, non-transferable tickets does get rid of scalpers (who ruin the lottery) but does not solve the supply and demand problem. The lottery offers to solve that problem but did not, it made a bigger mess. One of the reasons it made a bigger mess was probably scalpers.

I believe what centuries of history teaches -- the only real way to solve supply and demand imbalance is to either increase supply, reduce demand or have a market which balances them. Increasing supply is very hard. Reducing demand requires abandoning radical inclusion now, since most of the other methods of reducing demand (Using a remote, harsh place, not selling tickets at the gate etc.) are played out.

With those played out the methods that remain include lottery, market pricing, first-come-first-served rushes, exclusivity (invitation, qualification etc.) and a few others. Markets are fair but involve filthy lucre.

Ah. I've seen other folks doubt that interest could be so high. And even if you could sort out scalpers, speculators, and n00bs, it doesnt sound like the LLC is interested in releasing all the details, so we are all playing a guessing game. I can only look to my experience with my camp. In 2010, we were like 9 assholes in camp chairs in a monkey hut that fell apart. In 2011, we built a real shade structure and grew. This year we kept growing, and added spouses and partners to the mix and we're looking at somewhere between 20 and 30. Along the way, various of us have started volunteering and bringing more crap, and growing in that way n00bs are supposed to grow... but at the end of the day, we've pretty much tripled in size pretty effortlessly.

So that's why I am kinda scratching my head at the folks that find it unbelievable that 70,000 might want to come to something that 50,000 were at two years ago.

Ah. I've seen other folks doubt that interest could be so high. And even if you could sort out scalpers, speculators, and n00bs, it doesnt sound like the LLC is interested in releasing all the details, so we are all playing a guessing game. I can only look to my experience with my camp. In 2010, we were like 9 assholes in camp chairs in a monkey hut that fell apart. In 2011, we built a real shade structure and grew. This year we kept growing, and added spouses and partners to the mix and we're looking at somewhere between 20 and 30. Along the way, various of us have started volunteering and bringing more crap, and growing in that way n00bs are supposed to grow... but at the end of the day, we've pretty much tripled in size pretty effortlessly.

So that's why I am kinda scratching my head at the folks that find it unbelievable that 70,000 might want to come to something that 50,000 were at two years ago.

New burners are coming in faster than old burners can die.

Ha!Better get Death Guild on that!that and make burners out of the virgins before they hit the playa.and your Playa experiance is also like mine, only I was in the second wave.

.......................................................................................Oh yeah, this year I was totally twerping out at the fence. ~Lonesombri

packlet wrote:i don't see how this prevents scalping, if that's the intent. the scalper could just send you a jpeg of the face or tattoo or license plate that was used to buy the ticketfor you to present at the gate as your 'proof' that it's your ticket.

I am not sure what good it does for the scalper to send you the jpeg that was registered with the ticket. You don't show the gate crew the jpeg -- they have the jpeg pre-loaded on their device. You have to bring the actual thing -- your own face, your own tatoo, your own genitals, your own licence plate.

Use of licence plate is risky since while it means you can buy a set of tickets tied to arriving in a particular car, you are screwed if the car breaks down before you get to the event. I would probably not recommend it. It does allow transfer of tickets within a camp or close group of friends -- if you are willing to loan the person your car when they buy your ticket. There are other things you can use, like a photo of your drivers licence or passport. To transfer your ticket you have to also give the recipient your actual passport. No scalper will do that but a close buddy might.

So to be clear -- the photo is of something that will come with you to the playa and which a scalper won't part with. Your face qualifies, and a few other things. The gate crew have phones or tablets pre-loaded with all the jpegs (flash memory is cheap). In an ideal system, as the car rolls up the driver's phone links by bluetooth with the gate staffer and the face is up on the screen before the car comes to a stop, but that's just being fancy -- scanning a typical print-at-home paper ticket is just fine and a well established tech.

bradtem wrote:b) You don't do non-transferable tickets with a NAME and ID. That's privacy invading and slow and almost like a will-call. You do them with a face. The ticket taker has a tablet or phone. They scan the ticket. Up pops the pre-stored jpeg the ticket buyer provided. You look at them, you look at the screen, you let them in. No will call. Takes a few seconds, faster than studying a foil stamped ticket for forgery actually. And you don't know their name. It doesn't have to be their face, it can be their tattoo or genitals or licence plate if you like.

I still don't get how it's privacy invading given A) we already gave the borg our name, and our Credit Card number, and our home address (unless we're will calling it), and B) we're expected to be carding everyone we gift alcohol to already.Also, set up the same scan the ticket system, scan the ticket, up pops the name, look at id, look at screen, let them in, yes it's a few more seconds fumbling in your wallet, where as your face is usually out and ready. My self, I'm for both name _and_ photo.

Also, I'd like to take trilobyte to task for lisitng 3 pre playa years in his list of 6 years Burning man doubled in size, The beach years really aren't the same thing.

Gotta fluff Trilo here for a sec. This is a great article to give confused Burgins. I think it will help with the overall energy in any case. I believe that the tickets went to speculators AND people who really want to burn. All the factors that Trilo mentioned I believe are real. I visit a lot of places on the interwebs and interest surely went skyrocketing this year. Also I feel that Burners that have taken years off were determined to make it this year. That average went up. Usually there are a percentage of burners who skip the year. I feel like the sell out made most people say, shit this is an ON year. So I believe that more than 60,000 tickets are wanted. 70-80 is plausible IMOAnd MOST people went for more tix than they needed, not just some or half.

Anyways I think this articles emphasis on reconstruction, embracing the new and fresh faces, and just putting the pieces together is what we need to do to keep this passion burning. It Should be a beautiful thing to watch unfold out into the world even more.

I still don't get how it's privacy invading given A) we already gave the borg our name, and our Credit Card number, and our home address (unless we're will calling it), and B) we're expected to be carding everyone we gift alcohol to already.Also, set up the same scan the ticket system, scan the ticket, up pops the name, look at id, look at screen, let them in, yes it's a few more seconds fumbling in your wallet, where as your face is usually out and ready. My self, I'm for both name _and_ photo.

My apologies. The system BM uses requires a credit card for the lottery. That's independent of how you verify the tickets. In a face based system (non lottery) you can buy tickets with cash or other anonymous means, and just hand over the image you want to use. You can have a walk-in ticket sales station where they snap your picture but don't know or record your name. There is no need for gate to see your name. If your face pops up, or the face of anybody in your group, you are in. Your evil twin can steal your ticket, but that's about it.

And yes, anybody in your group. It is possible in a face-based system to buy 10 tickets, all with the same face, and as long as all 10 people enter together it's fine. I suppose a very dedicated scalper who wants to drive everybody to Burning Man could thus resell tickets, but I'm not too worried about that. In fact, the way it would work is that the one face is on a 3 person ticket, which says that that face and 2 others can enter.

Doing an anonymous lottery is a lot more difficult, though it is possible if privacy is at a premium. You would probably have to pay cash and get a receipt, and if you lost the lottery, go back (carrying your face with you which you usually do) and get your refund. Of course using your face is not super private as humans can identify faces, but they are less useful for computerized privacy invasions -- at least for now, when face rec is not so good.

@bradtem - the article wasn't posted on a blog, and I didn't care to play host to your comments. I've received some emails from folks who were able to find the contact button on the bottom of the page. A) it was never about selling tickets as quickly as possible. From what I can see, the ticketing vendor had addressed their technical issues, through improvements to their systems as well as leveraging cloud services. Nothing, however, could have prevented server hiccups and kickouts - that is, based on the prevalence of those problems with popular on-sales at even the biggest ticketing vendor. Even Coachella's 4 hour sellout would have happened in significantly less time had they not had server trouble. B) I disagree. You've made it abundantly clear in another thread on this board that you know better than anybody how gate ought to operate, despite no experience with event production or having done any work with the gate crew, so I'll continue to wait for you to step up sometime and join that crew and show them how it's done. C) Youtube has never registered to get Burning Man tickets before. Think whatever you like, but the evidence I'm seeing shows that as the leading suspect. Unless there's a secret society of ticket hoarders that stocked up on extras for campmates and friends yet refuses to come forward to their campmates/friends, or some kind of scalper brotherhood that agreed to not list their tickets until either after the secondary sale or some later date, I'm just not seeing some other wildcard that explains it. You're welcome to continue to think what you like.

@RedHeaven - thanks. Anecdotally, I'm seeing more interest from first timers this year both on ePlaya and elsewhere too.

Trilo, this has not too much to do with debates about how to run gate. I was simply saying that while you had described a system where gate workers had to check ID, there are other systems that are in use that are photo based, and thus eliminate that bottleneck. Any non-transferable ticket system is very likely to need electronic ticketing -- though there are ways to do it with paper tickets -- and as such many functions open up, including face verification as opposed to name. I presume that while you don't think Glastonbury is a big success, that they use this method of the uploaded photo, though as far as I know I was the first to propose it many years ago. (Photo badges are of course quite common at events but usually they are done at a photo station at the event, or if you provide a photo they verify it.)

I have zero interest in re-opening the gate debate, I just want to point out that once you make the move to electronic tickets, as is common in many venues today, a lot more options are open for efficient processing. I can't say I am thrilled by your attitude. I have never said I know more about how gate should run than anybody. It seems that you and some others interpret suggestions for things that might improve a situation as a declaration of such godlike knowledge, and that's unfortunate, because it discourages suggestions. But we hashed that out enough, and let's avoid it if possible.

As for the effect of the youtube video and other factors, I don't think we've been given enough information to judge that. To come to real judgements here, we would like to know how many lottery entries there were (I have seen two very different numbers of 80K plus and "double what was expected") and how much was scalpers and how much was either new burners or oversubscribing burners. We will eventually learn how much was scalpers by watching the boards where they sell, notably ebay, stubhub, craigslist etc. Right now is a complex time for a scalper. It's hard to sell a ticket you don't have. Would you buy a ticket from somebody who can't prove they have a ticket, who can only show you a screenshot of an email? Perhaps if they had a stellar ebay reputation, but otherwise not. On the other hand, this panic time may be the best time for a scalper to get a top price. With time people will learn more, learn how many tix show up in the aftermarket and panic less.

There are ticket companies that have hiccups. There are also companies that sell 40K tickets or more without them. One company I work for has billions of pageviews a day without problems, though admittedly it spends a great deal to do that. That BMOrg is not an expert on this is no particular shame -- it is in the event business not the ticket selling website business. However, my main point is that the fact that earlier ticket suppliers had problems is not a reason to say that FCFS can't work. I personally think FCFS is a poor system, but I could implement it reliably if you wanted it.

The lottery was ill advised. And indeed I advised the BMOrg against it. Unfortunately they did not have much time to make their decisions, since they announced the plan not long before they were committed to carry parts of it out. I sought a professional game theorist for them, but sadly the one I was referred to was away at the time and I did not find them another.

Lacking anything better to do, I looked over the BRC almanac and considered the census of each year since an art theme has been involved. I thought this a fair sampling especially since there was exponential growth the first few years. Plus by 1995, the event had pretty well settled on the playa versus previous venues.

Anyway, since 1995, the average growth rate from year to year has been a factor of 1.13. I stopped at 2010 since the event sold out in 2011 and that skews the possible growth for that year.

It is my understanding that 51.5k people attended the 2010 event. That would yield the possible and realistic census of 2011 COULD have been (without limitation of ticket sales) 58.2k or FIFTY-EIGHT-THOUSAND, TWO HUNDRED people. That would have been the likely growth for the 2011 event if tickets were not a limiting factor.

Carrying that factor of 1.13 to 2012, based upon the POSSIBLE census for 2011, we arrive at a likely sum of 65.8 or SIXTY-FIVE-THOUSAND, EIGHT-HUNDRED people who would potentially make it to the event without ticket limitations.

The only flat growth years were 2001, 2003, and 2005. There was negative growth in 2009 but surged by 20% in 2010. I do not argue these to be empirical in any way. It is simply a consideration of what the numbers would likely be base upon historical data.

One good thing about BMORG not giving out numbers is that it keep scalpers in the dark as to the "value" of their tickets.If you are a scalper or an enterprising "burner-speculator", knowing that 20-30K persons are looking for tickets is very exciting. It guarantees that (1) your tickets will sell at (2) a very high price.Another consequence of not knowing is that if you are holding tickets for speculation/scalping, you probably will want to wait to find out more about the actual situation - the value of your holding can change drastically. Why sell at $650 when you could go at $850+ ?Finally, I think scalping is more of a "ticket-in-hand" type of business (for reasons mentioned earlier in this thread). We will not see the real impact of scalping until the summer when actual tickets are out there. I hope Trilo is right and we are pleasantly surprised with low numbers of scalped tickets.

For the scalper, the question is more when to sell, not so much what price. With auction sites like ebay out there you can generally get the best market price at any given time. However, scalpers also like to get more than market price, by people unaware of the market forces. I suspect the scalpers that sit on the highway to the playa will charge a lot more than a market price because it is not longer easy for somebody to shop. The downside of selling on the way to the event is that what you don't sell becomes valueless, and you have to make up for that with extreme prices.

Last year the highest prices I saw were right after the sellout -- panic buying. Prices dropped all the way to the event, but I suspect that the guys on the roadside had really high prices.

I bet scalpers wish they had tickets in hand right now because today panic is high. One problem is that it's hard to sell until physical delivery day, even for honest burner transactions except between trusted friends. Even ebay sellers with high reputation can't readily sell because you can't leave feedback 4 months later. Only the BMOrg's own system will be able to sell until tickets are in hand, which is a big advantage for it. Unless BMOrg implements a way to transfer "the right to a ticket" through the system before tickets are mailed. That's good for scalpers, but will be demanded by burners, who need to be making plans and can't wait to June to know. I don't know if details have been released on how this will work.

graidawg wrote:lets wait till september to see if we have a problem, sure tickets havent gone to the peope who feel entitled or deserving. but it may, just may make Bm soemthing new and exciting.

I'm sorry if Burning Man isn't "exciting" enough, but, people can't wait until September to distill absinthe, build art installations or register mutant vehicles. Larry Harvey doesn't wave his wand and miracle all that shit people see in the pictures to Black Rock City.

Somebody else said it best: The rest of us aren't interested in social engineering. We want to build the most epic-cool shit we can and take it down to Black Rock City because without epic-cool shit, it's not the Black Rock City that so many people call home. This one:

trilobyte wrote: some kind of scalper brotherhood that agreed to not list their tickets until either after the secondary sale or some later date,

This one isn't rocket surgery. A- they don't have physical tickets and won't for months. B- there is one more face value sale left C- they will trickle tickets out slowly after the sale. There is no coordination needed. Hey, I could be wrong, hell I'd LOVE to be wrong, but there really is no other way to explain it than people are speculating on tickets. What I'm seeing is that the folks that think that one YouTube video really created more new folks wanting to go this year than returning folks are just absolutely refusing to accept that a large number of tickets are in the hands of scalpers. You really don't know that for sure and can't proceed assuming that isn't the case. Hell, we'd be better off if the tickets sold in the last sale were released NOW so the reselling can begin because if everyone has to wait till June for the speculated tickets to start selling it will be too late to plan for anything. I'm just saying consider the possibility.

trilobyte wrote: some kind of scalper brotherhood that agreed to not list their tickets until either after the secondary sale or some later date,

This one isn't rocket surgery. A- they don't have physical tickets and won't for months. B- there is one more face value sale left C- they will trickle tickets out slowly after the sale. There is no coordination needed. Hey, I could be wrong, hell I'd LOVE to be wrong, but there really is no other way to explain it than people are speculating on tickets. What I'm seeing is that the folks that think that one YouTube video really created more new folks wanting to go this year than returning folks are just absolutely refusing to accept that a large number of tickets are in the hands of scalpers. You really don't know that for sure and can't proceed assuming that isn't the case. Hell, we'd be better off if the tickets sold in the last sale were released NOW so the reselling can begin because if everyone has to wait till June for the speculated tickets to start selling it will be too late to plan for anything. I'm just saying consider the possibility.

I wouldn't love it if you were wrong. If you are wrong, then that means scalpers will hold tickets and the event will be controlled by their price gouging. I would rather you were right, and a way to push the scalpers out was realized so that I and my camp mates could get tickets.

The latest update from the BMORG explains the rationale for the approach they used, and as they say hindsight is 20-20. The haters would NEVER have made those mistakes right ?

Even with the mistakes made so far, I'm inclined to believe them if they don't think it's scalpers (somehow) but it makes me sad as the possibility of not going, of not doing our art project, or having a theme camp gets more real.

graidawg wrote:lets wait till september to see if we have a problem, sure tickets havent gone to the peope who feel entitled or deserving. but it may, just may make Bm soemthing new and exciting.

I'm sorry if Burning Man isn't "exciting" enough, but, people can't wait until September to distill absinthe, build art installations or register mutant vehicles. Larry Harvey doesn't wave his wand and miracle all that shit people see in the pictures to Black Rock City.

Somebody else said it best: The rest of us aren't interested in social engineering. We want to build the most epic-cool shit we can and take it down to Black Rock City because without epic-cool shit, it's not the Black Rock City that so many people call home. This one:

We simply want to do what we always do, which is make Black Rock City what it is. Attendance figures and burner fanaticism prove that people like Black Rock City to be Black Rock City.

sorry Zaphod, perhaps i wasn't clear enough, yes Burning Man is massively exciting I wouldnt be coming otherwise. But and this is a big but, if the theme camps can't make it and people cannot make plans because they won't know till march if they can make "big art" then it means we will have the rest of us to try and ensure we have the best time possible. Burning Man isnt made by the big art installations, or sound camps or anything that is there its made by burners.

Almost every single story I tell about BM to my friends or story that I hear, is about people. Sure i loved seeing Infected Mushroom at oplulent temple and the stroboscopic zoetrope, but it was the people i was with that made it brilliant, I would of still enjoyed it on my own but having friends to share it with made it so much more. so if we have smaller more intimate things at BM, smaller camps and smaller dance tents - as oppposed to massive sound camps, more interaction with people on a more intimate level that, for me, will be a new and interesting experience at BM. if people cant brew absinthe for august without knowing they have tickets well buy some, or distill it anyway and drink some at home and bring vintage absinthe in 2013.

FREE THE SHERPASBurners with torches is right and natural and just.-fishy.CATCH AND RELEASE.

trilobyte wrote: some kind of scalper brotherhood that agreed to not list their tickets until either after the I wouldn't love it if you were wrong. If you are wrong, then that means scalpers will hold tickets and the event will be controlled by their price gouging.

Sorry that should read "if you are RIGHT" .... can't seem to edit posts right now.

graidawg wrote:sorry Zaphod, perhaps i wasn't clear enough, yes Burning Man is massively exciting I wouldnt be coming otherwise. But and this is a big but, if the theme camps can't make it and people cannot make plans because they won't know till march if they can make "big art" then it means we will have the rest of us to try and ensure we have the best time possible. Burning Man isnt made by the big art installations, or sound camps or anything that is there its made by burners.

Almost every single story I tell about BM to my friends or story that I hear, is about people. Sure i loved seeing Infected Mushroom at oplulent temple and the stroboscopic zoetrope, but it was the people i was with that made it brilliant, I would of still enjoyed it on my own but having friends to share it with made it so much more. so if we have smaller more intimate things at BM, smaller camps and smaller dance tents - as oppposed to massive sound camps, more interaction with people on a more intimate level that, for me, will be a new and interesting experience at BM. if people cant brew absinthe for august without knowing they have tickets well buy some, or distill it anyway and drink some at home and bring vintage absinthe in 2013.

+ 1000

"The essence of tyranny is not iron law. It is capricious law." -- Christopher Hitchens