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Monday, January 31, 2011

i recorded a high temp of 52F (11C) this afternoon on tushita road in upper mcleod ganj... pretty good, considering the occasional clouds we had for most of the morning. the computer models are showing some very aggressive warming this week, and we'll see how much of that is reflected in our high temperatures. there will also be a few periods of mainly high clouds, but at this point, it looks like sunshine will be the dominant factor until about thursday.

a slow-moving, slowly developing storm is still expected to ease into the area by the end of the week, but with relatively warm temps in place, precipitation should fall in the form of rain rather than snow for the majority of us...

MONDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 6C (42F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sunshine and a few high clouds. milder...
high: 12C (54F)

skies are partly cloudy early this morning with a temp of about 40F (4.5C) here at the top of mcleod ganj. i'm happy to say that it looks like we're in line for a few nice days in a row... with tempertaures gradually moderating. other than scattered patches of cloudiness here and there, we should enjoy a good bit of sunshine.

there will be a late winter storm system heading our way by the end of the week, but it seems to be slow getting its act together, and will probaby not affect us until very late thursday or friday at the earliest.

MONDAY: partly cloudy skies.
high: 11C (51F)

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly clear.
low: 5C (41F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly sunny and rather mild.
high: 11C (52F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny.. a nice day!
high: 12C (54F)

THURSDAY: increasing clouds with a slight chance of a late day shower. quite mild.
high: 13C (55F)

Sunday, January 30, 2011

we're wrapping up our sunday with partly cloudy skies and some spotty, fizzling light rain showers. i had about an hour of light rain and simultaneous sunshine up at the top of mcleod ganj, which produced a really nice double rainbow late this afternoon. our weekend storm produced some big winds, and a few inches of snow way up the mountain, but very little in the way of measurable rain or snow in the immediate mcleod vicinity. that storm system is now plowing through western tibet, and weakening rapidly.

looking forward... i think the big news this week will be a warming trend. temps should moderate day by day, and as long as we can keep the sunshine in the equation, we should have some of the mildest weather of the past several weeks. not to spoil the party, but there are signs of another developing storm system for the end of the week into next weekend (again).

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy overnight, with still the risk of an isolated rain/snow shower or two.
low: 3C (38F)

i guess the forecast should have included a hurricane... winds have been kicking up off and on since around 11pm, and were really fierce just after 7am this morning. precipitation has been sparse here in mcleod ganj... with just some occasional rain showers during the wee hours of the morning (along with a flash or two of lightning around 3am). significant snow has fallen up on the mountains... but it appears to be above naddi and upper dharamkot. will wait to get some reports from our friends up there. from what i can see, several inches of new snow has fallen from near magic cafe, on up to triund.

the satellite pics this morning indicate the center of the storm system over southern kashmir, moving rather quickly to the northeast. we may yet pick up some light rain and snow showers today, but i think our best chance of precip has passed us by to the north. winds should gradually diminish, with even a chance of some sunshine peeking through later today.

expect generally calm and quiet weather for the first half of the new week... along with a decent warming trend. by thursday we'll begin to see evidence of the next storm system which will affect our area next weekend...

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and windy this morning with a few rain and snow showers in the area. partial clearning is likely as the day goes on...
high: 8C (46F)

Saturday, January 29, 2011

an impressive cluster of showers and thundershowers is evident on the satellite photos across central and northern pakistan late this afternoon. this inclement weather is associated with a strengthening upper-level storm system which will be moving through northern india during the next 24 hours or so. mainly high clouds have been common across our area thus far today, but will continue to thicken up this evening and overnight. one computer model is showing 18mm (0.7in) of precipitation between now and late sunday... most of that will occur late tonight and tomorrow morning. a water to snow ratio of 1:10 (which is a general rule-of-thumb) would suggest the potential for 18cm (7in) of snow in areas that are cold enough. i am still thinking that most accumuating snow will occur ABOVE mcleod ganj... but that depends on how much and how fast the atmosphere is going to cool off once precipitation starts.

at any rate... be aware of the possibility of accumulating snow in the area tonight into mid-day sunday, possibly accompanied by some thunder and lightning. check here for updates...

i'm quite surprised to see this nice sunshine early this morning... there's not much evidence of an approaching storm! however, the current sunny skies are deceiving, because the satellite photos this morning show a large mass of cloudiness re-developing just to our southwest... so clouds with thicken quickly again today. rain and snow showers are still expected to develop, with the best chance of rain and snow coming tonight into sunday morning. it's not impossible that we may see/hear some lightning and thunder at some point. i am also more and more confident of a period of accumulating snow, especially at elevations just above mcleod ganj. stay tuned for further updates if/when our weather makes a turn for the worse...

SATURDAY: some sunshine this morning, followed by mostly cloudy skies and an increasing chance of rain and snow showers during the afternoon.
high: 9C (48F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: cloudy skies with a good chance of a few periods of rain and/or snow. some thunder possible as well.
low: 3C (38F)

SUNDAY: periods of rain and snow likely in the morning, with a chance of thunder. some clearing possible by late afternoon.
high: 7C (45F)

Friday, January 28, 2011

ominous-looking clouds this afternoon have made it obvious that some changes are underway. an upper level storm system is making its way into pakistan at the moment, and will strengthen as it swings across northern india during the next 36-48 hours. the dynamic strength of this system continues to look more impressive with each run of the computer models... but surface moisture is somewhat limited, and is the factor that will restrict the amount of rain and snow we get this weekend. still, occasional rain showers (even some thunder?) along with the potential of some slushy snow exists.. with the better and better chances of accumulating snow the further up the mountain you are.

most of the precipitation should be east of us by late sunday afternoon... with dry weather and a warming trend on tap for the first half of next week. be prepared for another round of rain and snow, however, perhaps starting as early as next wednesday evening...

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a chance of a couple of rain or snow showers developing.
low: 5C (41F)

the air feels a bit milder this morning, and the thermometer reflects that... with an early morning temp of 5C (41F). i'm still watching a storm system develop and slowly move eastward across afghanistan. this system will cause a gradual increase in our cloud cover today, and then lead to a better and better chance of some rain and snow showers from late tonight through sunday. this is not a major storm, but measurable rainfall and accumulating snowfall are likely across our area over the weekend. right now, i think accumulating snow will be above mcleod ganj (more likely in naddi and dharamkot), due to the warmer air getting pulled in from the south... but it will be fun to keep a close eye on it as it develops, to see if the snow potential increases a little further down the mountain.

most of the precipitation will be out of here by late sunday... with dry weather expected on monday and tuesday. however, it looks like there is a stronger storm lurking on the horizon for the middle and latter parts of next week...

Thursday, January 27, 2011

not a bad day...we had mostly sunny skies, with temperatures remaining on the cool side. the high temp in mcleod was just 48F (9C). tomorrow (fri) may be just a degree or two milder, but clouds will again be on the increase, in advance of the next storm system. we're still looking at a pretty good chance of some rain and snow showers over the weekend, as a fairly potent upper-level disturbance swings through the area. accumulating snow is a distinct possibility at elevations above mcleod ganj... so keep that in mind if you plan to be hiking or trekking or traveling. we should have a break in the action from late sunday into tuesday, but then more unsettled weather will be on the way by the middle of next week.

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.
low: 4C (39F)

FRIDAY: increasing cloudiness. a bit milder. just a slight chance of a shower by evening, but a better chance of rain and snow showers overnight.
high: 10C (50F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a mix of rain and snow showers. cool and breezy.
high: 8C (47F)

SUNDAY: still a good chance of a few periods of light rain and/or snow.
high: 8C (46F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy skies.
high: 9C (49F)

TUESDAY: rather mild, but clouds thickening up again by late in the day.
high: 11C (51F)

skies are clear early this morning, with a cool temp of 38F (3C). satellite pics show a few high, thin clouds upstream which may dim the sun a bit later today, but for the most part, sunshine will prevail. temperatures will be a bit milder both today and tomorrow, but increasing clouds and increasing chances of rain and snow will put a dead stop to the warming trend over the weekend. best chances of precipitation now look like they will occur on saturday and sunday. although this is still not looking like a BIG storm, some measurable precipitation is likely... with a few inches of snow possible... especially above mcleod ganj.

we may be getting into a more active pattern, as there are indications of another storm system right on the heels of the one this weekend, which could begin to affect us by tuesday.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

the afternoon is ending with partly cloudy skies, and a few sprinkles around the area. there was a report of some snow flakes mixed in with the sprinkles around 330pm in naddi village. skies will rapidly clear out overnight, however... which will lead to a fairly nice thursday.

after that, some changes are on the way. it has been interesting to watch the gradual evolution of the computer models during the past 36 hours or so. they are pointing to a storm system for the coming weekend, although at this point, it still doesn't look like it will be anything dramatic. having said that, each run of the computer models is showing a slightly more robust system, so we'll have to keep a close eye on it. expect the chance of rain and snow showers to increase by late friday, and then continue right through the weekend. check back for new info as the week goes on...

the sun is shining this morning... with a cool temp of 38F (3C) to start the day. we have a shallow layer of cool air across the area, but there is also a bit of instability in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere, so i have a concern that we could see an afternoon rain or snow shower today, as the clouds build over the mountains. of greater concern is a storm system now gathering over the persian gulf. it is headed in our direction, and will increase our chances of some light rain and snow by the weekend. currently, none of the computer models are making a very big deal out of this... it isn't looking anything like our snowstorm earlier this month. just keep in mind that we could have some rain and/or snow showers around this weekend, if you have any weather-dependent plans...

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

it's partly cloudy, with some light haze and fog around the area just prior to sunset this evening. we've had a bit of a breeze for much of the day, and the temp is cooler than it's been in a few days... just 47F (8C) in mcleod for a high earlier this afternoon.

this cool air is going to remain entrenched for another day or so, before retreating a bit by the end of the week. but at the same time, there will be a storm system gathering to our west, bringing us an increasing chance of rain and snow by late friday. at this point, i still think this will be a minor precipitation event, but it definitely bears watching...

TUESDAY NIGHT: patchy fog and haze overnight. cooler...
low: 2C (36F)

WEDNESDAY: rather cool, with a mix of sun, clouds, and some light fog.
high: 8C (47F)

THURSDAY: mostly sunny skies.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: increasing clouds. chance of a few rain or snow showers by late afternoon.
high: 9C (49F)

there's some haze and light fog around the area early this morning, with a chilly temp of 39F (4C) in mcleod ganj. it will be just a bit cooler today and tomorrow, as a shallow pool of himalayan air continues to spill southward over the mountains. then, steady or slightly moderating temps are expected into the weekend. i'm still keeping an eye on a developing storm system for the weekend. at the moment, it doesn't look like a major issue, but it will bring us our best chance of rain and snow showers we've had since the snowstorm on the 15th. if you're a snow lover, keep your fingers crossed... since we only have another 3-4 weeks left in our typical snow season. here's a look at the coming five days...

Monday, January 24, 2011

our monday unfolded pretty much as expected... a sunny morning giving way to a partly cloudy afternoon. temps approached 50F (10C) again, but for some reason, it felt chillier than that to me today. there IS some shallow, slightly colder air spilling over the mountains into the kangra valley at the moment... and that may hold our temps down a couple of degrees into the middle of the week. still no chance of any significant rain or snowfall... but computer models continue to hint at a minor storm system moving into the area on friday and saturday, which could bring some light precipitation with it. stay tuned...

our monday is starting off beautifully... full sunshine and temps in the low 40sF (5-6C). we could see a build-up of clouds this afternoon, but otherwise it looks like a nice day ahead. still nothing major on the horizon as we progress through the coming week. there are indications that a minor storm system could move across the area on friday into saturday... we'll have to keep an eye on it.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

today's high temp in mcleod hit 50F (10C) for the second day in a row. high temps in lower dharamsala the last couple of days have been reaching around 19C (66F), which is well above normal for this time of year. it was great to see all the sunshine in the morning... but mountain clouds during the afternoon dimmed the warm sunshine for many of us.

still looking like a quiet week ahead. no major storm systems. no onslaught of moisture expected. also no dramatic changes in temperatures expected. it does look like it will be cooling off just a bit during the mid-week period... and by friday, there is a better chance of some rain and snow showers. but all in all, our rather benign late january weather will continue...

clear skies early this morning... and my thermometer shows a mild 43F (6C) to start the day. the weather pattern is almost as calm and quiet as it can get for this time of the year. no significant storm systems are on the horizon... right through the coming week. as i've mentioned before, when a little pool of colder air aloft drifts by, it can create enough instability to generate a brief shower or two... we may see a couple of those during the coming 4-5 days, but significant, measurable precipitation doesn't look likely at all.

today and tomorrow will be on the mild side, but some slightly cooler air is going to seep southward over the himalayas for the rest of the week.

SUNDAY: lots of sun this morning... perhaps a build-up of afternoon clouds over the mountains.
high: 11C (52F)

Saturday, January 22, 2011

i think we all could agree that this has been a fine saturday. despite the occasional cloudiness here and there, sunshine was the dominant factor... and the temp in mcleod ganj topped out at a rather mild 50.5F (10.3C).

there are no significant storm systems on the horizon at all. as i've mentioned recently, little pools of cold air in the upper atmosphere will drift through from time to time, and could produce enough instability to stir up a brief, isolated shower in the afternoons. but honestly, chances are so slim (less than 20%), that for now, i've decided to mostly leave the precipitation out of the forecast. temperatures should remain fairly steady... but there are now indications that by tuesday, some slightly colder air will spill southward from central asia. so, in general, our period of fairly nice mid-winter weather will continue...

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.
low: 4C (39F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, with a few clouds during the afternoon.
high: 11C (51F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 11C (51F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and sunshine. just a slight chance of an isolated PM shower.
high: 9C (49F)

satellite photos (and a look out the window) show quite a bit of thin, high cloudiness streaming across northern india this morning. in fact, with strong, fast winds blowing at the jetstream level (around 30,000ft), this high level moisture will continue to drift by in the form of occasional high clouds. however, we are severely lacking any moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere, so precipitation chances will remain quite small. i'm still including a slight chance of some isolated PM rain/snow showers off and on during the coming days, due to a little instability (it's very cold aloft)... but at this point, significant, measurable rain or snow doesn't appear likely. temps may moderate a little... but will be stable for the most part.

Friday, January 21, 2011

a gray and gloomy early morning turned into a sunny and bright afternoon. but despite the sunshine, the high temp in mcleod only made it to 49F (9C). once again... balmy in the sun, but still very chilly in the shade.

all indications point to a prolonged period of generally dry and quiet weather ahead. a few minor pockets of instability drifting through could ignite a brief, isolated rain/snow shower on just about any given afternoon, but the chances are low enough to barely mention. computer model guidance shows very little change in temperatures all the way into the middle of next week...

it's overcast this morning... with a temp of about 43F (6C). the thermometer has barely moved in the past 24 hours or so... as the clouds haven't let much sun in by day, or much stored heat out into space by night. our upper level disturbance is now centered over southwestern kashmir, near jammu, and continues to move eastward. there have been some scattered showers (both rain and snow) associated with this system, but almost all of it has remained to our north. we still have a chance to get a few drops of rain or flakes of snow as this thing passes by, but signficant precipitation is just not going to happen.

random mainly afternoon rain or snow showers may pop up during the afternoon hours into early next week, otherwise quiet weather and near normal late january temperatures will prevail. that means... still very chilly in the shade, but balmy in the direct sunlight.

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy early, but becoming partly cloudy. still a chance of one or two rain/snow showers.
high: 9C (49F)

Thursday, January 20, 2011

although slightly milder air is currently surging into the area, it was very hard to notice it today... thanks to cloud cover which persisted for about 90% of the day. the actual high temperature in mcleod ganj was just 45F (7C). we're watching an upper-level disturbance spin its way across central pakistan this evening, but despite all the clouds, there is very little low-level moisture to work with, so i am less and less impressed with rain/snow chances as it passes by. the best chance of showers will occur tonight and tomorrow morning.. but at this point, i'll be very surprised to see anything significant, or even measurable.

thereafter, generally quiet weather is expected into the first part of next week... although some little pools of cold air aloft could create enough instability to stir up a brief rain/snow shower or two during the afternoons. temps will remain fairly stable, and will depend almost entirely on how much sunshine we can get...

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with a chance of a couple of rain and snow showers developing. low: 4C (39F)

FRIDAY: some rain/snow showers could occur in the morning... then becoming partly cloudy.
high: 9C (49F)

temps are a bit milder early this morning, thanks to a thin layer of cloud cover overnight. current satellite pics show a broad area of mixed mid and high cloudiness streaming in from the west and southwest, associated with an upper-level disturbance moving into pakistan. although there is a good bit of moisture aloft, this system is fairly "moisture starved" at the surface... so i'll be surprised if we get much in the way of significant rain and snow out of this one. still... starting late this afternoon, and continuing into saturday, be on the lookout for an occasional period of light rain and/or snow. better chances of snow remain in the higher elevations to our north...

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a risk of a rain shower by late afternoon.
high: 10C (50F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a few rain/snow showers possible... any snow accumulations should be light.
low: 4C (39F)

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

today's weather illustrated the vast difference between sun and shade... if you were lucky enough to be in the sunshine all day, it was quite warm. but if you spent the majority of time in the shade, you were shivering non-stop. official temperatures around the world are always recorded in the shade... that's because a thermometer in direct sunlight doesn't give an accurate representation of the true nature of the air. today's high temperature in the main market in mcleod ganj was just 48F (9C) in the shade, despite the fact that it felt like 65F (18C) if you were basking in the sun.

today i am seeing some significant discrepancies between the computer models. there is a low pressure system moving into afghanistan at the moment, and it's heading in our direction. that means we'll see an increase in clouds tomorrow, along with an increasing chance of some rain and snow showers. one of the computer models is faster, and clears things out by late friday, while another one keeps us in the clouds and precipitation chances through saturday. one thing seems clear though... any precipitation should be fairly light.

crisp and cool right around sunrise this morning. i'm showing an early morning temp of 36F (2C). we should enjoy a fairly decent day... and that will continue into tomorrow as well. in fact, temperatures will be a bit milder both today and tomorrow, before another weak storm system moves in for friday into saturday. it's still looking like any precipitation around here will be relatively light... although some heavy snowfall could occur in the higher elevations to our north, mainly in lahaul and spiti.

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny this morning. partly cloudy this afternoon with only a slight chance of a brief, isolated rain/snow shower.
high: 9C (49F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy.
low: 3C (38F)

THURSDAY: periods of sunshine through increasing high clouds. slight chance of a shower by late PM.
high: 11C (51F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of some light rain/snow showers. temps will be mild, but will drop quickly if showers develop.
high: 11C (52F)

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

a beautiful evening in progress, with the nearly full moon now rising over the dhauladhars. we had a variety of weather today... nice sunshine throughout the morning and even into the early afternoon, with temps rising to around 50F (10C) in upper mcleod ganj. but the anticipated snow showers did develop around 3pm, and we had an erie 45 minutes of dark clouds, light snow and gusty winds.

that pool of very cold air aloft associated with the upper level disturbance is departing to the east quickly this evening, and that will leave us with generally quiet weather for the next 36 to 48 hours. after that, another weak ripple aloft will drift through, and could stir things up enough for another round of brief and relatively light rain and snow showers.

despite all that... there are no real significant storms or weather dramas in sight for the next 5-6 days at least...

TUESDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 2C (36F)

WEDNESDAY: sunshine in the morning, with a few PM clouds. slight chance of an isolated rain/snow shower in the mid to late afternoon.
high: 9C (49F)

the upper-level disturbance moving overhead last night and this morning has failed to muster up anything more than some cloudines, and a few scattered rain and snow showers (mainly to our north). early this morning, the sun is actually shining, but due to this unsettled atmosphere, be on the look out for an increase in clouds, along with a chance of a passing rain/snow shower towards mid-day and during the afternoon. another chance of some light precipitation comes towards the end of the week...

**a reminder that forecast temperatures are for upper mcleod ganj. you'll have to add (mcleod main market and below) or subtract (dharamkot and naddi) from the forecast temps, depending on your elevation.*

TUESDAY: morning sunshine... with increasing clouds and a chance of a period of rain/snow showers after noon.
high: 8C (47F)

Monday, January 17, 2011

oh yes... winter is in full swing in mcleod ganj. i was greeted with heavy snow, thunder and lightning as my bus arrived early on saturday morning. apparently my bus was the last to make it up the hill, so i feel fortunate. snowfall totals ranged from just a couple of inches down around the library, to about 5 inches in the main market area, to 8 inches in upper mcleod ganj... and then around one foot to a foot and a half in parts of naddi and dharamkot. most people agree that that was the biggest snowfall around here since the third week of january 2005.

temperatures at my place at the top of mcleod ganj dropped to around 28.5F (-2C) on sunday morning, which led to a lot of slushy/frozen pipes. afternoon temps have been well into the 40sF (7-10C), however, so much of the snow and ice has already melted.

LOOKING AHEAD>> it appears that the weather pattern is going to remain unsettled for the next several days. one fairly potent disturbance is approaching northern india this evening, and will likely produce some areas of rain and snow... although at this point, the snowfall doesn't look like it will be as heavy as it was on saturday. then, another round of snow (mainly light) is expected with yet another disturbance moving in late thursday though saturday.

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of some rain showers, quickly changing over to snow. we could see a couple of inches or more... especially at the higher elevations.
low: 1C (33F)

TUESDAY: good chance of snow in the morning... then partly to mostly cloudy skies.
high: 7C (44F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds and sunshine. a bit milder.
high: 8C (47F)

THURSDAY: some morning sunshine, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow showers developing during the afternoon.
high: 7C (44F)