Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Japan's energy future - Finding the opportunities in trying times

Image by AFP/Getty Images via @daylife

It’s no surprise that the recent earthquakes and tsunami in
Japan, along with the fear of a nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi
nuclear plant, have caused the Japanese government to reevaluate their energy
future. Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan announced on May 10th that
they will curb current plans to build more nuclear reactors, and will focus
instead on renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, and hydro. But while
the government thinks about changing the supply
side of energy, it’s important to remember that the biggest bang for the
energy conservation buck is on the demand
side, through behavior change – how do you motivate people to use less
energy as they go about their daily lives?

One of the primary types of appeals used in community
interventions is the fear appeal – a
persuasive message that aims to frighten the audience into engaging in the
desired behaviors, by showing them the negative consequences that could occur if
they don’t. It struck me that Japan’s situation is one that would be ripe for
this kind of messaging. Japan is located on an extremely seismically active
piece of real estate, and if they need to build more nuclear plants to meet
increasing energy needs, there’s no way to be sure that Fukushima Daiichi won’t
repeat itself. Certainly the threat of nuclear disaster should inspire the kind
of motivation that is needed to seriously change behavior. But do fear appeals
work, and if they do, under what circumstances are they effective, and when are
they actually counter-productive?

One important component seems to be the amount of fear
elicited. The more frightening a message is, the more effective it is –
however, insert big BUT here: It turns out that fear is not the sole component
of an effective fear appeal. The other essential ingredient is a feasible
recommended course of action to combat the threat – in other words, you can’t
just scare people by saying “If we don’t use less energy, we run the risk of
nuclear disaster.” Research indicates that giving people this kind of message will lead
to rejection of and resistance to this message, probably because of a need to
counteract the fear, without any know way of doing so. In fact, it is here that
a “more fear” tactic might backfire – the least
effective messages are those that are high on fear, but low on behavioral
recommendations. A more effective message would probably be something like, “If
we don’t use less energy, we run the risk of nuclear disaster. So, make sure
you lower the thermostat 2 degrees, turn off the lights when you leave the
room, and run your dishwasher during off-peak hours.” If the audience has that
kind of attainable behavior to help alleviate the threat, the combination of
fear and action can really produce results. However, for the reasons described
above and others, constructing an effective fear-based message is a tricky
thing, and runs the risk of being more counter-productive than useful.

There is also some controversy over the ethics of using emotional appeals – even if they work, is it fair to play on people’s emotions,
rather than their logic, when trying to elicit a behavior from them? That may
be an issue for another day, but it’s certainly an issue worth thinking about.

The Japanese government does not appear to be using fear
appeals, and that is a good thing. It would probably be seen as
exploitative in a time when the message they really need to be sending is one
of national unity, demonstrating that the government has a plan, and if
everyone in Japan comes together for a common goal, they can overcome any
disaster.

The good news is, that is exactly what the Japanese people
are doing. They are recognizing the importance of energy savings, not only to
prevent major problems like nuclear disaster, but to avoid the more minor
inconveniences like rolling blackouts. Japan’s largest utility, TEPCO, says
that its customers are doing such an incredible job saving energy that their
predicted shortfall has reduced significantly, and they are “ceasing
implementation of rolling blackouts in principle” (presumably meaning it’s a
tentative cessation).

How have they been so successful? In the wake of the crisis,
it turns out the Japanese people have banded together, out of national pride
and a can-do attitude, and decided to curb their energy use. The concept of setsuden, an energy saving culture, has emerged, and the people are embracing
it. Everywhere you turn in Japan now, residents and companies are posting posters, starting incentive programs, and generally rallying around the idea of energy efficiency. It's a spirit of optimism, motivation, and forward thinking. It's working extremely well. And it's much more rewarding than fear.