As many of you know, I have been touting little-known Tariq Khan for eons as a brilliant Oscar prophet. In years past, for example, he not only foretold the upsets in the works by Marion Cotillard and Meryl Streep, but he called them early in the season in articles published by Gold Derby titled “5 Reasons Why XXX Will Win the Oscar for Best Actress.” In the past few years I’ve included him in our charts of Experts where he’s done admirably well. Last year Tariq and Pete Hammond tied for best score.

But this year I think Tariq (and Pete, too) have scooted way too far out on a limb for Emmanuelle Riva. That’s crazy. I’ve tried to talk reason into both of them, but in our podcast chat (now posted on the home page), Tariq and I take the gloves off and REALLY GO AT IT. It’s not only Oscar War — it’s NUCLEAR. Check it out on our home page — it’s hilarious as we alternate between shouting at each other and laughing

I would love to do a podcast with you one day Tom, you’re a lot of fun! This was great- I truly hope Ang Lee wins too- I just changed him in my predictions. The only one of the three upsets Tariq predicts that I disagree on is Supporting Actor- I’m with you, I just don’t see how Robert De Niro can win when he’s won nothing and there hasn’t been that much support behind the performance. However, the film does have support and that’s where he might seal it. I’m sticking with Tommy Lee Jones.

After listening to that podcast I just wanted to reiterate something I’ve posted about in this forum previously, that the ‘babe theory’ is a myth.

The reason the large majority of Oscar nominated actresses are in their 20’s and 30’s is obviously because the majority of substantive roles for actresses in America are written for women in their 20’s and 30’s (a point that Tariq Khan mentioned in the podcast as well). On the rare occasions when a quality role is written for an older actress to play it tends to go to a stalwart such as Meryl Streep or Julianne Moore (and in recent years increasingly Viola Davis and Jacki Weaver).

To state that the overriding reason that Charlize Theron (Monster) and Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose) won their lead Oscars was due to how ‘sexy’ they are is both insulting to the Academy members’ ability to appreciate and vote for a great performance and disrespectful to the actress nominees. I think it was clear to critics, Academy members and viewers that those two actresses were very deserving of the oscar for those roles based upon the quality of those respective performances.

On a different note, I think that quite a sizeable chunk of the Academy (evidently not every single member, but a significant amount) must have watched ‘Amour’ for it to have accrued nominations for ‘Picture’, ‘Director’, ‘Actress’ and ‘Screenplay’. So while I think that Jennifer Lawrence is still very much in contention, Riva should be considered as the only other realistic contender with a chance to win.

I actually think, with most of the male voters being over 50, Lawrence might actually be a bit too young to qualify even if this exists. It took Elizabeth Taylor and Kate Winslet forever to win – Shirley Maclaine, Faye Dunaway. Sophia Loren had been around longer.

Sure one can find similar cases somewhat to Lawrence – Audrey Hepburn, Grace Kelly (though both were older).

This was a juicy one. Tariq reminds of a friend from college. I’m betting one of his “off the wall” predictions comes true. I dont find De Niro to be an “off the wall” choice so hopefully Riva or Ang Lee will prevail.

I listened to all three podcasts posted today. They were great! Welcome to the Christoph Waltz bandwagon, Tom! He’s winning. You are right. That is something that’s happening. However, I feel Tariq is correct in saying Ang Lee will win. That is something I’ve felt really strongly about for awhile. My gut has been telling me ever since nomination day that we are going to see that. I’m not so sure about Riva though. I think it is a little more difficult for foreign language performances to win at the Oscars. Not to say it doesn’t happen, but I think they have a longer way to climb than the English language performance nominees. I’ve got Jennifer Lawrence picked to win, though I guess I wouldn’t be shocked if Chastain or Riva won. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility for either of those ladies to get the win, but I’m definitely going to stick with Lawrence. I feel good about that decision.