Category Archives: Economic Growth/GDP/Exports and Foreign Trade

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the next fiscal year has been set at 7.2 percent expecting that trade and agriculture will continue to thrive and the global economy will turn around by 2013.

The country’s GDP grew by 6.7 percent in 2010-11 and the provisional estimate was set at 6.3 percent for the outgoing fiscal year. Bangladesh now targets to take the growth to 8 percent by 2014-15.

According to the latest forecast, the growth of global economy may stand at 3.5 percent while that of the developing and emerging economies at 5.7 percent in 2012.

“In pace with economies of other emerging and developing countries, we have been able to sustain the economic growth in Bangladesh,” said Finance Minister AMA Muhith in his budget speech yesterday.

In the last three years, the country had an export growth of 21.2 percent. By April 2012, export grew by 8.4 percent compared to that of April last year.

The government hopes this trend will continue due to the expansion of regional trade, surge in internal demand and bumper Boro harvest.

The finance minister also expects there would be steady credit flow to development sectors and the deficits in power, energy and infrastructure will gradually decrease.

On an average the country’s import also increased by 22.2 percent in the last three years. Up to this April, import grew by 8.7 percent.

Bangladesh, desperately seeking overseas funds for building its major infrastructures, has so far been assured of assistance and investment worth $12 billion from two friendly countries in Asia, officials said on Sunday.

The $12 billion investment pledges came almost simultaneously when two official teams from Malaysia and Qatar visited Bangladesh last month, officials at the ministry of foreign affairs (MoFA) said.

Malaysia has so far pledged some $9.0 billion including $6.0 billion for a new international airport and rest for the proposed 6.15-kilometre multi-purpose bridge across the river Padma.

Qatar so far offered to invest some $3.0 billion for building infrastructure in Bangladesh. The Gulf state is also likely to pledge another $2.5 billion investment in different sectors including energy, officials said.

“All these investment proposals are likely to be registered after the relevant authorities and concerned parties sign required deals,” a senior official of the Board of Investment told the FE.

Bangladesh launched the hectic drive for foreign funds after the World Bank refrained from giving its pledged portion of $1.2 billion for building a $3.0 billion Padma bridge alleging corruption in a bidding process last year.

The construction of the Padma Bridge was an election pledge of the government which won a landslide victory in the last general election in late 2008, officials at the ministry of communications said.

“It is our prime project and we want to start its construction before conclusion of our present term in January 2014,” communications minister Obaidul Quader told the FE.

Following the World Bank’s action other financers, including Japan International Cooperation Agency ($420 million), Asian Development Bank ($615 million) and Islamic Development Bank ($140 million) have also suspended their pledged funds.

Meanwhile, the authorities concerned are also expecting more foreign assistance in coming months as the oil-rich Qatar has shown great interest in investing in oil and gas exploration, power plants, expansion of airports, river dredging and manpower training institutes.

Bangladesh also hopes further pledges of another $2.5 billion investment from Qatar for setting up a proposed 1,000 mega watt liquefied natural gas-fired power plant at Moheskhali off-shore island, expansion of Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport, expansion of highways, procurement of five river dredgers and for setting up a technical training centre, MoFA officials said.

The far eastern Malaysia has offered a total of $9.0 billion investment in the bridge and the international airport projects while Qatar pledged for constructing the bridge across the Padma river.

Meanwhile, Qatar is also looking for other fields including energy, infrastructure including river dredging and human resources sectors.

Malaysian Prime Minister’s special envoy for South Asia Dato S Samy Vellu offered the new and the latest investment proposal worth some $6.0 billion for construction of the proposed Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib International Airport near Dhaka, to Civil Aviation and Tourism Minister Col (retd) Faruk Khan on May 30.

The new offer was made when Mr. Samy Vellu visited Dhaka for submitting a formal preliminary proposal for construction of $3.0 billion Padma Bridge, which Malaysia had agreed earlier and a memorandum of understanding was signed in Kuala Lumpur on April 10.

Earlier in the last week, a Qatari official team led by Assistant Minister for International Cooperation Affairs of Qatar Sheikh Ahmed Bin Mohammed Bin Jabr Al Thani, offered some $3.0 billion assistance for building the Padma Bridge.

As Bangladesh and Malaysia have already signed a MoU for building the Padma Bridge, Qatar is likely to join the venture as a third party in the project, MoFA officials said.

“We have already signed a memorandum of understanding with Malaysia. If it is feasible, acceptable and agreed upon by all the parties, we can have a tripartite agreement,” Foreign Minister Dipu Moni told reporters after meeting with the Qatari delegation on May 28.

“If Malaysia and Qatar really can upkeep their pledges and come forward in investing, then the world scenario of financing will really change,” an official of the ministry of finance said without giving details.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has made enormous leaps since the 1990s in terms of its growth in the global economic landscape. Due to paucity of resources in developing and least developed countries, FDI has become an important component of their development strategies and in many cases it proved to be a win-win situation to both host and home countries. Host countries want to gain from FDI in multiple ways such as through having capital, technology and knowledge. Home countries also benefit through investing as they can penetrate into markets, gain access to raw materials and diversify business activities. They can also overcome trade barriers and reduce transport costs.

Bangladesh is considered to be one of the potential economies despite being besieged by multi-faceted adversities such as frequent natural disasters, high density of population, political turmoil and a low production capacity. The resilience and inherent strength of the economy, mainly due to its robust sectors such as agriculture, readymade garments and remittances, have been the basis of such optimism. However, in order to make its graduation to the next level of growth and fully exploit the growth potential, the country’s investment scenario has to be improved. The lack of adequate investment is one of the important reasons for the growth below the potential of the economy. The domestic investment rate has been stagnant at around 24 percent to 25 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the last ten years which is far below the level required for a country aiming to be become a middle-income country by 2021 with a growth rate of 10 percent. The sixth five-year plan (2011-15) of Bangladesh targets a GDP growth of 8 percent by the end of the plan period. This requires that the total investment has to grow by 8.1 percent per year and the share of investment in GDP has to be 32.5 percent by fiscal 2015. Low domestic investment has been a matter of concern as it holds back foreign investment as well.

Even though Bangladesh has been trying to bring in FDI since its independence and put in place FDI friendly policies in the early 1980s (Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Act 1980 was such an attempt) much before some of its neighbours, it has been unable to accelerate FDI at the expected level. In the 1990s, there was an attraction for the East Asian and European investors to invest in the readymade garments industry of Bangladesh, thanks to the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and the availability of labour at a competitive price. Currently, the concentration of FDI is mainly on transport, storage and communication, manufacturing and power, gas and petroleum. Other sectors such as agriculture, trade and commerce and, services receive nominal FDI. In 2010, manufacturing sector was the highest recipient at 27.82 percent of total FDI, while the construction sector received the lowest with a share of 0.01 percent. The growth of FDI in Bangladesh has, however, been very inconsistent. A major inflow of FDI was observed in the mid 2000s and rose to $913.32 million in 2010.

While discussing the impediments to bringing FDI into the country, a host of issues have been raised ranging from infrastructural constraints to bureaucratic complexities to image building. However, the crux of the problem does, in fact, lie in three broad areas. First is the limited access to physical infrastructure, particularly supply of gas and electricity. This has emerged as a binding constraint on investment promotion in Bangladesh. For example, the supply of gas between December 2008 and December 2011 has increased only marginally from 1,606 million cubic feet to 1,960 million cubic feet, indicating an average growth of 7.4 percent. On the other hand, the demand for gas rose by 12.3 percent during this period, leading to a wide gap between demand and supply. At present, the demand for power in Bangladesh is around 6,500 megawatt, while the supply is 4,699 megawatt. In the recent times, the FDI rise has been observed mainly in the export processing zones (EPZ) as there is little or no gas and electricity supply constraint like the domestic tariff area. In order to overcome infrastructural bottlenecks, aid for productive capacity needs to be enhanced significantly. However, effective use of these funds has to be ensured. Public-private infrastructure development policy can also be a powerful tool to tackle the supply side constraints.

The second bottleneck is the culture of confrontational politics, which poses a serious threat for the safety of property and resources of prospective investors. Acrimony and bitterness among political parties often lead to destruction and affect lives and properties of people which in turn deter not only foreign investment but also local private investment. Many investors are even willing to spend on infrastructure to facilitate their investment in other sectors, only if there are political stability and predictability of return on their investment.

The third constraint is the lack of good governance and prevalence of corruption, which have put a scar on the reputation of the country at the global level. Because of advantages such as competitive prices for labour and other services, investors may find Bangladesh a lucrative investment destination. However, predicaments such as delay and a lack of transparency in decision making process, a dearth of effective implementation of regulations and policies, and discriminatory incentive packages act as stumbling blocks in bringing in FDI to the country.

FDI is not a panacea for slow growth, and it has several negative implications too. These include capital flight and repatriation of profit, dependency on technologies and limited transfer of technology and transfer pricing. With effective regulatory and oversight mechanism such issues can be addressed. FDI can supplement the local effort to produce goods and services and create jobs. If local businesses flourish, foreign investors will have confidence to bring their resources. Promotion of local businesses through access to adequate finance and creation of an enabling environment should also be a key target. Economic diplomacy is vital at this day and age to attract foreign resources. This has to be accompanied by good marketing skill which in other words is called ‘branding’. Such image building task has to be done primarily by the government but complemented by the private sector and all citizens of the country.

The writer is an economist and head of research at the Centre for Policy Dialogue.

DHAKA, June 5 (BSS) – A four-day 13th Textech Bangladesh- 2012 International Expo, largest of its kind in textile and apparel industry, will begin in the city on July 3.

The annual exhibition on textile and apparel technology, machinery and allied services would be held at Bangabandhu International Conference Centre (BICC).

CEMS-Global, USA-Conference and Exhibition Management Services Ltd in association with CEMS Bangladesh is organizing the expo.

Textech series of exhibitions, has become a brand, held every year in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Sri lanka.

Commerce Minister GM Quader will be the chief guest at the inaugural session of this year’s show, organizers said today.

Over 450 exhibitors from various countries including the US, UK, China, India, Pakistan and Japan are expected to take part in the exposition.

Members of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) take part in the show.

The Textech aims to introduce local stakeholders of Readymade Garments (RMG) and knitwear sectors with the latest development and the global trend of the industries so they can survive in the global competition.

Two more exhibitions — 12th Dye+Chem Bangladesh- 2012 International Expo’ and 6th Dhaka International Yarn and Fabric Show-2012′ — would also be held besides the 13th Textech.

Organizers say the expo would not only create a scope for Bangladeshi apparel and knitwear exporters to display their unique aspects of the products but also shed light on its progress to the global garment and textile community.

The 13th Textech will bring many decision makers and qualified buyers under one roof resulting in business transactions worth millions.

Bangladesh, being the second largest destination for RMG outsourcing after China, exported apparel merchandise worth $17.91b last year.

The World Bank (WB) has termed growth of Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) at an estimated rate of 6.3 per cent in fiscal 2011-12 as healthy as it is higher than the developing nations’ average of 5.5 per cent.

“But it is lower than the South Asia average of 6.5 per cent,” Dr Zahid Hussain, WB senior economist told the reporters Sunday at a media briefing on Bangladesh Economic Update, held at a local hotel.

However, the GDP growth rate of Bangladesh in the outgoing fiscal will be considered impressive, given the scenario of vulnerabilities in the global economic environment, according to the WB.

Heavy bank borrowing, declining trend in investment and volatile inflation are major threats to Bangladesh’s macro-economic stability, the WB observed.

It said there are looming uncertainties in Bangladesh’s leading export markets in Europe and the USA that are likely to affect the country’s exports significantly.

The WB said there is little room for further credit expansion in fiscal 2012.

“Achieving 17 per cent broad money growth target will require credit growth to be more than 11.5 per cent in public sector and 2.1 per cent in private sector in the last quarter of the fiscal, 2011-12 from its end-March levels,” Mr Zahid said.

Steps, the WB noted in its economic update on Bangladesh, will require to be taken to mitigate private sector crowding-out risks.

It said that industry, particularly construction and small-scale manufacturing, had driven the growth in fiscal 2012 while transport and financial intermediation led the growth in services.

“Agriculture and large scale manufacturing sectors have slowed down compared to the situation in the than last fiscal,” Mr Zahid observed.

According to the WB update, private investment rate declined to 19.1 per cent in fiscal 2012 against 19.5 per cent in the previous year.

Lead country economist of the WB, Dr. Sanjay Kathuria, said the overall investment in Bangladesh is very low while adding that it has to go up by 6.0-8.0 percentage points of GDP to help accelerate the country’s growth rate.

It said non-food inflation in Bangladesh in the outgoing fiscal was at the highest level in last two decades.

“This is primarily driven by expansionary monetary policies over the last two years,” Mr Zahid added.

The WB, however, commended the efforts by the central bank for adopting a contractionary monetary policy to help combat the inflationary pressures.

Mr Zahid said monetary policy-actions take time to bring down the rate of inflation, expressing the view that inflationary pressures will be tamed if the recent tightening policy is not reversed.

He said the good news is that food inflation has come down to 8.1 per cent in April against 13.8 per cent in September last.

Mr Zahid said the Bangladesh Bank (BB) has rightly refrained itself from intervening in the foreign exchange market and this has allowed the market forces to play their proper role.

While making the opening statement at the media briefing, country director of WB Ms. Goldstein said the WB will continue to support Bangladesh’s development efforts.

She said one challenge before Bangladesh is to effectively speed up implementation to deliver results on the ground.

She said the country’s recent economic growth is quite healthy. The spillover effects of the Eurozone and oil prices are the threats to the country’s sustained growth in the coming days, she noted.

She said Bangladesh has to prepare an effective strategy to combat the looming challenges and respond accordingly to achieve its goals.

Responding to queries, WB economists said recent ratings of Bangladesh by the S&P is quite all right. “We support it.”

Replying to a specific question about the WB’s stance on any fiscal move by the government of Bangladesh to facilitate declaration of “undisclosed money”, Zahid Hussain said: “We’re yet to know what measures will be taken about the undisclosed money under the budget.”

“But we think that the government will not take any move which will encourage the sources and areas that generate black or undisclosed money.”

The WB economists said issuing licenses for setting up new nine private commercial banks (PCBs) will create a competition to mobilise deposits.

Mr Kathuria, lead economist of the WB said: “This will add to competition for deposits and pose a challenge to the supervisory capacity of the central bank.”

He observed that regulatory reforms in the capital market to ensure a stable trading environment were underway, adding that the pace of such reforms would need to be accelerated.

He said faster progress in exploration activities in Bangladesh is needed to meet the shortage of gas supplies. Steps should also be taken to ensure access to land for investment, he added.

Mr Kathuria said public private partnership (PPP) office is being staffed by professional managers but its progress so far has still remained at a slow pace.

He said reforms in trade liberalisation relating to tariffs, para-tariffs and customs procedures should be carried forward effectively to help promote trade.

There are vulnerabilities and uncertainties mainly due to global environment, he noted while underlining the need for putting stabilisation policies in place to address vulnerabilities and reduce uncertainties for business.

He said subsidy and government borrowings should be scaled down not to crowd out the private sector.

Mr Zahid said Bangladesh has three major risks ahead. These include slowed-down export operations due to Eurozone crisis, possible decrease of remittance earnings particularly from the Gulf region, and likely hikes in petroleum prices in the international market, he added.

A significant level of higher imports of petroleum products to feed the liquid fuel-based power plants and slow export growth have resulted in the decline of Bangladesh’s current account surplus to US$ 456 million in March, 2012 from $710 million in July, 2011.

He said: “Deficit in its overall balance of payments (BoP) decreased to $419 million from $527 million in 2011.”

However, this improvement in the overall BoP deficit may be temporary, he observed.

He said improvements in infrastructural facilities and availability of energy will be necessary to attract investment.

He said the government should take longer-term measures to address effectively the problems in the energy sector.

He said the country’s fiscal deficit has widened, despite increases in revenue earnings. Recurrent expenditures are likely to overshoot the original budget target, he observed.

Agencies add: The GDP growth rate of Bangladesh, the WB in its update said, moderated from 6.7 per cent in fiscal 2010-2011 to 6.3 per cent in fiscal 2011-2012 due to unfavorable external economic situation and internal supply constraints.

Dr. Sanjay Kathuria said improving the investment climate and undertaking trade-related reforms would be needed to increase domestic and foreign investment which is essential for Bangladesh’s accelerated growth. The investment: GDP ratio in Bangladesh will have to increase to 30-32 per cent from existing 24 per cent to help accelerate the growth rate, he observed.

He said ideological aspects and reality will have to be considered in providing any scheme to whiten black money. “The ultimate impact of the black money will also have to be considered.”

In her opening remark, Goldstein said, while Bangladesh’s most recent economic growth remains quite healthy by developing country standards, there are several headwinds that could derail growth in the near future. “Spillover effects of recession in the eurozone and oil price increases are the two headwinds that pose the most serious downside risks to Bangladesh’s growth from external sources,” he said.

She said all that Bangladesh can do is to prepare to face such risks by creating policy space, so that it can respond appropriately and in time when risks arise.

However, these are not the only risks, she noted while stating that Bangladesh’s ability to provide adequate infrastructure, energy and a business-friendly regulatory environment has also suffered in recent years. “If these issues are addressed, we feel Bangladesh will be able to overcome the impact of a weak global economy without much difficulty.”

She said the Bank Group will remain engaged to support Bangladesh’s development. “The Sixth Five Year Plan of the country is soon to enter its third year of implementation. The challenge now is to effectively speed up implementation to deliver results on the ground.”

About the continuing macroeconomic pressures, the WB update noted that overall inflation “is in double digits and non-food prices rose 14 per cent in March 2012, compared to 4.3 per cent a year earlier. This has been driven by expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.”

On the other hand, food price increases declined from 13.8 per cent in September 2011 to 8.1 per cent in April 2012 which is good news for the poor.

The fiscal deficit has increased, despite significant increases in revenue. Recurrent expenditures are likely to overshoot the original 2012 budget target, driven by larger-than-budgeted growth in subsidies and transfers.

The central government budget deficit increased by more than 2.5 times from July to January in fiscal 2011-12 compared to the situation during the corresponding period the previous fiscal, it observed.

With exports starting to decline in March 2012, pressure on the Bangladesh’s balance of payments could intensify, the update cautioned.

“Uncertainty in Bangladesh’s leading trade markets poses risks to accelerated growth. High unemployment, low business and consumer confidence, and volatility in financial sectors remain major threats to Bangladesh’s two major export markets, Europe and the United States”, it said.

In addition, the combination of current levels of inflation, fiscal deficit, and foreign exchange reserves mean that Bangladesh has very little policy space to respond to the crisis, unlike its situation during the last global economic and financial crises, it observed.

“Energy shortage poses as much of a risk to growth as do global uncertainties. The overall shortages of energy continue to deter fresh investments and expansion projects. Authorities need to proceed with longer-term solutions to the energy problem to ensure that the net additions to capacity already made can be sustained”, he pointed out.

The update highlighted the need for coordinated macroeconomic strategies. “A coordinated policy response will be essential to restore macroeconomic stability and accelerate growth. Stabilization policies will need to focus on creating fiscal space, and containing government borrowing”, it said.

“The longer-term growth outlook depends on acceleration of structural reforms to raise savings and investments rates, improve trade prospects, and ensure balance of payment sustainability. This would entail modernizing the tax regime and strengthening public financial management, and require increased tax revenues to address the large infrastructure deficit”, the update pointed out.

Growth acceleration also needs urgent reforms to address the looming skills deficit and enable a continuation of manufacturing and export growth, it added.

It observed stagnation in investment still exists due to gas and power problem and the government is paying more subsidy in the fuel sector as its import has risen.

Bangladesh is expecting to boost its exports of garment and pharmaceutical products to Malaysia once a free trade agreement (FTA) is signed between the two countries, officials said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the far eastern Muslim country, which employs more than 400,000 Bangladeshi expatriate workers, is expected to approve the FTA proposal submitted by Bangladesh, soon.

“The two countries will start negotiations on the proposed FTA, immediately after the approval, which is expected to come, ahead of the upcoming exposition of Bangladeshi products titled Showcase Bangladesh 2012, in Kuala Lumpur,” a senior official at the ministry of foreign affairs (MoFA) told the FE.

Once the FTA is inked, there will be vast potential in trade and investment areas of both the countries, the officials said.

The three-day second exposition of Bangladeshi products to be held from July 13, after the first one held in 2010 is also likely to solve problems faced by Bangladeshi expatriate workers in remitting their earnings to Bangladesh.

“Besides manpower, we are looking for exporting ready-made garments (RMG), pharmaceutical products and several other non-traditional items to Malaysia,” Mostafa Azad Chowdhury Babu, vice president of Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry told the FE.

Malaysia with a population of some 28.5 million in an area of some 330,000 sq km and with a GDP of $238 billion, is now a solvent country and meets its apparel and medicinal demands by importing from different countries in Asia, Europe and the USA.

Import by Malaysia from Bangladesh is nominal at present while it exports mainly palm oil, petroleum products worth some 950 million euro to Bangladesh annually, according to a Malaysian government website.

Malaysia has recently come forward to cooperate with Bangladesh in its efforts to boost its economy.

It is the first country that offered Bangladesh necessary assistance in building a proposed bridge over the river Padma when the World Bank and other financers backed out from their commitment of funding, the government officials in Dhaka said.

Malaysia has so far pledged some $9.0 billion including $6.0 billion for a new international airport and the rest for the proposed 6.15-kilometre multi-purpose bridge across the river Padma.

Malaysia also legalised some 267,000 Bangladeshi workers recently who had been victim of unscrupulous manpower agents.

Presently there are some 400,000 Bangladeshis working in Malaysia, mostly in manufacturing, construction, plantations, agriculture and service sector.