1. FOLLOWING IS INR ROUNDUP OF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN
FRANCE DURING PAST MONTH WHICH YOU MAY FIND USEFUL AS
BACKGROUND FOR YOUR POSSIBLE STOPOVER IN PARIS.
2. PRESIDENT-ELECT GISCARD D'ESTAING, WHO DEFEATED FRANCOIS
MITTERRAND ON MAY 19, BY ONLY 50.8 TO 49.2 PERCENT, HAS
STATED THAT HE WILL APPOINT HIS "SURPRISE CHOICE" AS PRIME
MINISTER IMMEDIATELY AFTER INAUGURATION ON MAY 27. CHIRAC,
GISCARD, FONTANET, AND JEAN SERISE, A CLOSE ASSOCIATE
OF GISCARD, HAVE ALL BEEN MENTIONED AS POSSIBILITIES. THE
WHOLE CABINET, HE SAID, TO BE ANNOUNCED BY MAY 28, WILL
REFLECT CHANGE AND YOUTH.
3. IN HIS EARLY ACTIONS, GISCARD CAN BE COUNTED ON TO MOVE
PRUDENTLY, WITHOUT WRENCHING ESTABLISHED POLICY LINES AND
POLITICAL PROCEDURES. HE IS INTERESTED IN IMPRESSING ON
FRANCE HIS OWN NEW STYLE OF LEADERSHIP AND A MORE OPEN AND
SECRET
SECRET
PAGE 02 STATE 110560
PRAGMATIC POLITICAL TONE, BUT HE KNOWS THAT THE GAULLISTS
ARE STILL THE DOMINANT PARTY IN THE LEGISLATURE, WITH WHICH
HE MUST WORK OUT AN INITIAL PROGRAM.
4. DOMESTICALLY, GISCARD MAY SOON TRY TO DEVISE SHORT-TERM
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL MEASURES WHICH MOLLIFY SOME OF THE
49 PERCENT OF FRENCHMEN WHO VOTED FOR MITTERRAND.
5. EMBASSY PARIS EXPECTS THAT GISCARD WILL BE MORE PRAG-
MATIC AND REALISTIC--AND CONCOMITANTLY LESS IDEOLOGICAL--
IN HIS APPROACH TO US-FRENCH RELATIONS. "INDEPENDENCE"
AND "PARTNERSHIP" SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MANAGEABLE WORDS
RATHER THAN RALLYING CALLS. THE US SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SOLVE THE MECHANICAL PROBLEMS OF CONSULTATION WITH THE
NEW GOVERNMENT.
6. GISCARD HAS PROMISED THAT A FIRST PRIORITY OF HIS
ADMINISTRATION WOULD BE AN INITIATIVE TOWARD RESUMING THE
DRIVE FOR EUROPEAN UNITY. THERE IS NO INDICATION, HOW-
EVER, THAT HE WOULD BE ANY MORE WILLING THAN HIS PREDE-
CESSORS TO ACCEPT THE DEGREE OF TRANSFER OF POLITICAL
POWER OR NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY THAT MANY FEEL A EUROPEAN
UNION WOULD REQUIRE.
7. GISCARD HAS STRESSED THAT THE FRANCO-GERMAN RELATION-
SHIP IS THE FUNDAMENTAL ELEMENT OF EUROPEAN COOPERATION
AND SECURITY. HE AND CHANCELLOR SCHMIDT, AN OLD FRIEND,
CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE CLOSE WORKING RELATIONSHIP
WHICH THEY MAINTAINED AS FINANCE MINISTERS.
8. EMBASSY PARIS EXPECTS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN FRANCE'S
POLICY AGAINST PARTICIPATION IN NATO INTEGRATED MILITARY
ORGANIZATION, ALTHOUGH GISCARD MIGHT BE MORE ATTRACTED
THAN HIS PREDECESSORS TO SOME FORM OF FRENCH PARTICIPATION
IN THE EURO-GROUP IF THIS HELD OUT THE CHANCE OF RETURNING
SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC GAIN TO FRANCE AND IF OTHER AVENUES
TOWARD INCREASED EUROPEAN ARMAMENT COOPERATION SEEMED
BLOCKED. GISCARD'S PUBLIC STATEMENTS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
INTEREST IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF A EUROPEAN DEFENSE STRUC-
TURE, ALTHOUGH HE RECOGNIZES THAT THIS MUST FOLLOW, NOT
SECRET
SECRET
PAGE 03 STATE 110560
PRECEDE, EUROPEAN POLITICAL UNION. GISCARD HAS SAID THAT
THE PRESENCE OF US TROOPS IN EUROPE IS NECESSARY TO THE
SECURITY OF EUROPE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. GISCARD
HAS STATED THAT HE WILL CONTINUE FRANCE'S DEVELOPMENT OF
ITS NUCLEAR FORCES, INCLUDING NUCLEAR TESTING.
9. INR CONCURS IN THE EMBASSY'S VIEW THAT CONTINUITY OF
FRENCH POLICY WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL IN INTERNATIONAL
AFFAIRS FOR THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THE GISCARD PRESIDENCY,
BUT IT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE SIGNS EVEN IN
THE FIRST YEAR OF GREATER THAN EXPECTED EXPERIMENTATION
AND CHANGE, PARTICULARLY ON ISSUES INVOLVING WEST EURO-
PEAN PARTNERS, CERTAIN DEFENSE ASSOCIATIONS IN EUROPE, AND
ACTIVITIES IN AN "ATLANTIC" CONTEXT. RUSH
SECRET
NNN

Raw content

SECRET
PAGE 01 STATE 110560
60
ORIGIN SS-30
INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 SSO-00 CCO-00 /031 R
DRAFTED BY INR/RES:JFHOSTIE
APPROVED BY INR/DRR:DEMARK
INR/DRR:MPACKMAN
S/S:DWMILLER
INR/RCRS:MTHORNE
--------------------- 036481
O 250057Z MAY 74 ZFF4
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO AMCONSUL JERUSALEM IMMEDIATE
USINT DAMASCUS
S E C R E T STATE 110560
EXDIS TOSEC 1026
E.O. 11652: GDS
TAGS: FR, PINT, PFOR
SUBJECT: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN FRANCE
1. FOLLOWING IS INR ROUNDUP OF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN
FRANCE DURING PAST MONTH WHICH YOU MAY FIND USEFUL AS
BACKGROUND FOR YOUR POSSIBLE STOPOVER IN PARIS.
2. PRESIDENT-ELECT GISCARD D'ESTAING, WHO DEFEATED FRANCOIS
MITTERRAND ON MAY 19, BY ONLY 50.8 TO 49.2 PERCENT, HAS
STATED THAT HE WILL APPOINT HIS "SURPRISE CHOICE" AS PRIME
MINISTER IMMEDIATELY AFTER INAUGURATION ON MAY 27. CHIRAC,
GISCARD, FONTANET, AND JEAN SERISE, A CLOSE ASSOCIATE
OF GISCARD, HAVE ALL BEEN MENTIONED AS POSSIBILITIES. THE
WHOLE CABINET, HE SAID, TO BE ANNOUNCED BY MAY 28, WILL
REFLECT CHANGE AND YOUTH.
3. IN HIS EARLY ACTIONS, GISCARD CAN BE COUNTED ON TO MOVE
PRUDENTLY, WITHOUT WRENCHING ESTABLISHED POLICY LINES AND
POLITICAL PROCEDURES. HE IS INTERESTED IN IMPRESSING ON
FRANCE HIS OWN NEW STYLE OF LEADERSHIP AND A MORE OPEN AND
SECRET
SECRET
PAGE 02 STATE 110560
PRAGMATIC POLITICAL TONE, BUT HE KNOWS THAT THE GAULLISTS
ARE STILL THE DOMINANT PARTY IN THE LEGISLATURE, WITH WHICH
HE MUST WORK OUT AN INITIAL PROGRAM.
4. DOMESTICALLY, GISCARD MAY SOON TRY TO DEVISE SHORT-TERM
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL MEASURES WHICH MOLLIFY SOME OF THE
49 PERCENT OF FRENCHMEN WHO VOTED FOR MITTERRAND.
5. EMBASSY PARIS EXPECTS THAT GISCARD WILL BE MORE PRAG-
MATIC AND REALISTIC--AND CONCOMITANTLY LESS IDEOLOGICAL--
IN HIS APPROACH TO US-FRENCH RELATIONS. "INDEPENDENCE"
AND "PARTNERSHIP" SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MANAGEABLE WORDS
RATHER THAN RALLYING CALLS. THE US SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SOLVE THE MECHANICAL PROBLEMS OF CONSULTATION WITH THE
NEW GOVERNMENT.
6. GISCARD HAS PROMISED THAT A FIRST PRIORITY OF HIS
ADMINISTRATION WOULD BE AN INITIATIVE TOWARD RESUMING THE
DRIVE FOR EUROPEAN UNITY. THERE IS NO INDICATION, HOW-
EVER, THAT HE WOULD BE ANY MORE WILLING THAN HIS PREDE-
CESSORS TO ACCEPT THE DEGREE OF TRANSFER OF POLITICAL
POWER OR NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY THAT MANY FEEL A EUROPEAN
UNION WOULD REQUIRE.
7. GISCARD HAS STRESSED THAT THE FRANCO-GERMAN RELATION-
SHIP IS THE FUNDAMENTAL ELEMENT OF EUROPEAN COOPERATION
AND SECURITY. HE AND CHANCELLOR SCHMIDT, AN OLD FRIEND,
CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE CLOSE WORKING RELATIONSHIP
WHICH THEY MAINTAINED AS FINANCE MINISTERS.
8. EMBASSY PARIS EXPECTS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN FRANCE'S
POLICY AGAINST PARTICIPATION IN NATO INTEGRATED MILITARY
ORGANIZATION, ALTHOUGH GISCARD MIGHT BE MORE ATTRACTED
THAN HIS PREDECESSORS TO SOME FORM OF FRENCH PARTICIPATION
IN THE EURO-GROUP IF THIS HELD OUT THE CHANCE OF RETURNING
SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC GAIN TO FRANCE AND IF OTHER AVENUES
TOWARD INCREASED EUROPEAN ARMAMENT COOPERATION SEEMED
BLOCKED. GISCARD'S PUBLIC STATEMENTS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
INTEREST IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF A EUROPEAN DEFENSE STRUC-
TURE, ALTHOUGH HE RECOGNIZES THAT THIS MUST FOLLOW, NOT
SECRET
SECRET
PAGE 03 STATE 110560
PRECEDE, EUROPEAN POLITICAL UNION. GISCARD HAS SAID THAT
THE PRESENCE OF US TROOPS IN EUROPE IS NECESSARY TO THE
SECURITY OF EUROPE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. GISCARD
HAS STATED THAT HE WILL CONTINUE FRANCE'S DEVELOPMENT OF
ITS NUCLEAR FORCES, INCLUDING NUCLEAR TESTING.
9. INR CONCURS IN THE EMBASSY'S VIEW THAT CONTINUITY OF
FRENCH POLICY WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL IN INTERNATIONAL
AFFAIRS FOR THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THE GISCARD PRESIDENCY,
BUT IT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE SIGNS EVEN IN
THE FIRST YEAR OF GREATER THAN EXPECTED EXPERIMENTATION
AND CHANGE, PARTICULARLY ON ISSUES INVOLVING WEST EURO-
PEAN PARTNERS, CERTAIN DEFENSE ASSOCIATIONS IN EUROPE, AND
ACTIVITIES IN AN "ATLANTIC" CONTEXT. RUSH
SECRET
NNN