Public Polls June 2016

The monthly polling newsletter is out. The summary is:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 98, June 2016

There were two political voting polls in June 2016 – a Roy Morgan and a One News Colmar Brunton.

The average of the public polls has National 17% ahead of Labour in June, up 1% from May. The current seat projection is centre-right 58 seats, centre-left 51 which would see NZ First hold the balance of power.

We show the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.

In the United States the real winner from the election campaign is Barack Obama. His favourability and approval ratings have been rising all year as Americans seem to think he isn’t as bad as the two people vying to succeed him.

Clinton’s chances of winning have risen from 69% to 76% in the prediction markets as she has an average 6% lead in the polls. The electoral college projection remains constant with Clinton ahead by 126 electors.

In June in the UK they voted to leave the EU. Scotland may leave the UK. David Cameron is going, Nigel Farage has gone and Jeremy Corbyn is trying not to leave. A turbulent month in the UK where once again the polls were mainly wrong.

In Australia the polls were very accurate in the election in terms of the two party preferred vote. Almost all showed a very narrow margin to the Coalition.

In Canada Justin Trudeau’s popularity continues to rise.

We also carry details of polls on housing plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

Nice steady slide for NAtional from Dec 15 but overall National still in a band in the mid 40 percent.

From the Nats perspective it would be comforting to see the slide arrest and a tick back upwards over several polls over the next 3-6 months, otherwise a real downward trend would be shown and may be seen as having momentum.

Winston will get to be King maker short of something dramatic in the next 17 odd months or a really good scare campaign pointing out voting NZF means Labour has a chance to bring the Greens with them and form a government

But any scare potentially burns off Winnie as a possible coalition/C&S partner post 2017 election.

Conundrums for the Nat strategy team to solve methinks. Killing ACT off over the last 10 years leaves few options for support parties for JK and friends…

Scott

Hopefully America will get a clue and realise that the ex-community activist, now president of the United States has been selling a “America is racist” message all of his working life. When he was a community activist that was okay, he couldn’t do much harm. Now that he is president of the United States people do believe him, they do believe that white cops are shooting black people for no reason at all and so they are up in arms and literally executing white police officers.

The ex-community activist has done more harm for race relations than anybody since the days of Jim Crow. America needs to wise up, stop listening to the current president and sit tight and wait for what one can only hope is a new president that doesn’t spend his days engaging in racially inflammatory rhetoric..

“NZF holding the balance of power suits me just fine, so long as they do the right thing and go with National.”

I am voting for NZF because of their policies which can only be adopted if they hold the balance of power. I wonder if National will agree to binding referenda on such issues as parental notification. I am waiting for a reply from Jacqui Dean, Chairperson of the SC who accepted incorrect figures of underage abortions.

Scott

Here in Masterton on Saturday there was a big NZF presence. They had a lot of young people campaigning for them, for some sort of enhanced gold card? It was just interesting to see a lot of young people campaigning for NZF. They could be on the rise and could be one to watch next election?

Scott

And just on the American election the Washington Times predicts Donald Trump will choose Mike Pence as his running mate. That would be a good pick, Mike Pence is a fiscal conservative, a sober popular kind of fellow who would add good Conservative credentials to Trump’s ticket.
Look for a bump in the polls for Trump if he chooses Pence as his running mate.

Boris Piscina

cmm

I am by no means suggesting that polls should be “corrected” before publication (like NIWA “corrects” global warming data).

All data should be published in raw form.

However, as David has said there does seem to have been a tendency of late for polls to predict an outcome more leftie than what has arrived. It is potentially worth mentioning that in any commentary.

I have a pet theory (which might be complete bullshit) that the aggressive stance of lefties (as well as virtue signalling) tends to make lefties more vocal and more right people either lie or say “undecided” just for a bit of peace. Then when it actually comes to voting they put the cross in a different place to what the polls and twitter feeds predict.

// NZF policy on housing though, includes the rotten formula of Government going into the building of homes business, sequestering off land required, and confiscation of land banked property., More or less. That is bad .
Its bad everywhere. Nanny wants to foist the problem onto Reserve Bank.
They NZF, don’t produce figures of course for housing costs, but its the Labour approach, we build cheap houses and we don’t know who will pay for it.
NZF facebook full of hysteria mostly, unbelievable antagonism for John Key personally.
I keep telling them the Social Conservatives are looking for a gap, but they foam away.
Its hard to know where we Conservatives can vote. Readers know that Conservative was over 4% last election.

deadrightkev

“Clinton’s chances of winning have risen from 69% to 76% in the prediction markets as she has an average 6% lead in the polls. The electoral college projection remains constant with Clinton ahead by 126 electors.”

Ha, no one believes this crap. There is a leftist retard born every minute. To be ahead in a poll you have to be popular, competent and create inspiration among voters. Spot the difference between the poll and cold hard reality DPF?

Cmm

“Yup although it takes more than a cup of “tea” to make a deal with WP, he still has some scruples.”

WP has lots of principles as well, take your pick, if you on’t like those he will find another. Key and Peters are made for each other. It will be a great tragedy if election 2016 comes and there is no party for those on the right to migrate.

Captain Mainwaring

A vote for the Conservative Party will be a totally wasted vote. I have known Winston longer than most on this blog when he was not a politician. No one is perfect but I would say he has more principles than John Key and definitely far more than Colin Craig.

Changeiscoming

The Conservative Party is dead in the water. Colin Craig is not a viable leader anymore, if he ever was. If conservatives want a change in direction from National then only a party that has a serious chance of holding the balance is power is worth voting for. That is not the CP anymore.

Whatever Winston’s personal faults, NZF is the only party with a consistently conservative platform on social issues, and the only party talking about reversing mass immigration.

deadrightkev

Chuck

Its easy to kick someone while they are down and join in with the know all throngs but it doesn’t impress me.

Colin Craig may not have succeeded as a political party leader thus far but he most certainly is not short on principle or sincerity. He was sabotaged at the final hurdle of that there is no doubt. He may rise again who knows?

He has let the CP members down by not letting anyone know where he is standing over the leadership, he needed to man up to the scum media and that is his only fault in my view. He can write as many poems as he likes.

I would rather not vote than vote for someone B grade like Peters or Key.

deadrightkev

Chuck. just in case you don’t realise it no one owns a policy. You also have to do something with it when you have the chance. WP has chosen WP every time.

Furthermore, WP scammed his way into parliament and since 1978 he has done nothing. That is a long time to have potential. After all that time you wait until 2016 to try and tell people that he is the savior of the masses. Give me a break he is a POS. He has you fooled only because you have nowhere else to park your Skoda.

Milkey

That is my uptick BTW

BBD

That is the reality of politics in NZ. Those parties are only one strong leader away from oblivion at the polls. The only thing that saves them is Nigel Key.

mikenmild

The four parties polling above 1% account for 95% of the votes. The others – Maori, ACT, United and whoever – are really only in competition for a combined 5% of the vote. That’s a pretty steady patters, and we can be pretty confident that it will persist for at least another year.
The key dynamics are still going to be the relative fortunes of Labour and National. A drop to around 40% would leave National very vulnerable. Conversely, a Labour Party getting up to 35% gets right in the game.
Despite their essential similarities on virtually every policy, I don’t think there are many voters who move directly between supporting Labour to National, or vice versa. This makes the role of the NZ First supporters critical. If they can be targeted successfully by either of the two main parties, that could be enough for a decisive edge.
National remains in pole (or poll?) position though.

Furthermore, WP scammed his way into parliament and since 1978 he has done nothing. That is a long time to have potential.
=================================
That’s simply not true. We in Tauranga have a harbour bridge that no National govt. was ever going to give us. We paid for the first one ourselves despite the Nats no even liking that. We paid for the motorway it needed again despite the feral Nats and no we will wait another 20 years for another badly needed bridge and a motorway to replace the road that keeps killing people.

We now have the pretty boy of Ngati Tu Bridges who was parachuted in to replace BOB the Builder.
Bobs interest was our roading and housing. He left the Nats with a blue print for housing. They rubbished him and ignored his advice instead giving housing to Williamson who is another Nat trougher.
Look at the mess they are in now having given it to Smith.

No idea what he is talking about nor the problem he is actually trying to solve.
But that’s the Nats. Useless.