Before this month’s elections, she acted as her brother’s
proxy in a presidential debate against the charismatic and
Oscar-winning film mogul Nikita Mikhalkov, who was standing in
for Putin. With a few well-placed phrases, the calm, well-educated Prokhorova dismantled Mikhalkov’s arguments so
thoroughly that he ended up offering her his vote.

Commentators parroted the director’s praise, building her
up as a presidential candidate in her own right and calling her
Russia’s answer to Angela Merkel. Never mind that Prokhorova, a
publisher of high-brow literature who also manages her brother’s
charitable initiatives, has no political platform, and no desire
or particular qualifications to run the country.

The adulation of Prokhorova illustrates a deeper problem in
contemporary Russia: Thanks to the sheer lack of fresh faces on
the political stage, any new figure immediately becomes a
sensation by default. Just as a love-starved man might lavish
his attentions on the first woman he meets, so those Russians
who are sick and tired of Putin are ready to fall for the first
hero who comes into sight.

Magical Transformation

The same magic has transformed Alexei Navalny, a 35-year-old lawyer who spent several years blogging about corruption in
companies and government, into the opposition’s No. 1 figure. He
attracts the biggest applause at demonstrations; he has achieved
the distinction of being banned from national television
stations; and his face has graced the cover of Russian Esquire
magazine.

Navalny himself doesn’t seem interested in the burdens of
leadership. He took off for a Mexican vacation at a critical
moment in the protests, he avoids interviews, and -- on those
rare occasions when journalists manage to ask about his
political program -- he honestly admits that he has none, other
than eliminating corruption.

When tens of thousands of demonstrators cheer for Navalny,
they don’t see the real person. They see their hopes for a new
life in Russia -- hopes that are very likely to be misplaced,
just as they were when people cheered for Putin in 2000 and
Boris Yeltsin in 1991.

For this reason, Putin has nothing to fear from the
protests. Demonstrators will come out into the streets for his
inauguration in May, and possibly after that, but their numbers
will dwindle. Some will make peace with the prospect of another
six years of Putin, some will channel their complaints into
blogs, some will join the growing number who are packing up and
leaving the country entirely.

Russia’s political system doesn’t fit into a simple
definition. It’s an autocracy in which people loyal to the
regime can exist comfortably. Nobody is forced to repeat slogans
or betray their friends and relatives. Corruption is so endemic
that it has become an important source of income for a large
share of middle-class Russians, including many who took part in
the protests. They either benefit directly from kickbacks on
government contracts or sell goods and services to people who
do.

On that unwritten social compact -- loyalty in return for
access to the government trough -- Putin’s power is built. It’s
far more powerful than television propaganda, which lately seems
directed mainly toward one viewer, Putin himself. It’s also more
reliable than police batons, which aren’t always there when you
need them. (Back in 2009, Moscow actually had to send its own
police to the Far Eastern town of Vladivostok to disperse a
demonstration against higher import tariffs on automobiles,
because the local force refused to get involved.)

Kickback Economy

Nothing will threaten Putin’s regime until the millions of
Russians who make their living in the kickback economy recognize
that the costs outweigh the benefits. For that to happen, they
must at least have some vision of the kind of Russia they would
want to live in. Only a candidate who can formulate such a
viable alternative to the current regime has a chance to win.

I don’t want my words to sound too much like a political
forecast. It’s entirely possible that Putin will leave before
his presidential term ends in 2018. But even if that happens, it
won’t necessarily solve Russia’s problems. Without a clearly
defined model for the country’s future that has the support of
most citizens, any new leader -- be it Navalny or Prokhorova --
will inevitably become another Putin, one whose presidency might
never end.

(Oleg Kashin is a political correspondent for Kommersant, a
Russian newspaper. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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