High Stakes In Kashmir

May 29, 1999

Like Belfast and Hebron, the Himalayan region of Kashmir is synonymous with intractable age-old political disputes that are never far from boiling over. This week, they did boil over in the disputed area divided between India and Pakistan, with consequences fraught with peril and impossible to predict.

India launched air strikes for the first time since 1971, hitting Pakistani and Afghan guerrillas who allegedly infiltrated across the dividing line in support of Kashmiri rebels. Pakistan responded by shooting down at least one Indian warplane. And just like that, the world's two newest nuclear powers were standing at the brink of catastrophe.

The two countries have been embroiled in armed conflict over Kashmir since they became separate and independent nations half a century ago. They also have fought three major wars during that period. Never have the stakes been quite so high as they are today.

The sense of urgency seems greater abroad than in India and Pakistan. Having sparred for so long over this rugged territory, they apparently operate under the assumption that they can play with matches without starting a forest fire.

They may be right. Neither side really intends for this latest battle to settle the issue once and for all, and each is aware of the risks of letting it get out of hand. Each government can also see something to gain from the occasional brawl, which stimulates nationalist sentiment, rallies the public behind their leaders, and distracts from the myriad social and economic ills that plague South Asia's people.

But the introduction of nuclear weapons to the subcontinent means that a miscalculation that once would have been survivable may no longer be. So both India and Pakistan and the rest of the world need to take immediate steps to stop this long-running game of chicken.

A permanent solution is too much to hope for at this stage. Pakistan wants to let the people of Kashmir vote on which country to be part of, while India regards its sovereignty over its share of Kashmir as nonnegotiable. The best prospect is for a sizable pullback from the so-called line of control that now exists, creating a substantial buffer between the two antagonists without prejudicing any final disposition.

The U.S., as a long-time patron of Pakistan, has limited influence with India, but a United Nations peacemaking mission could begin the process of building peace in the region. The world shouldn't let its attention be so focused on the Balkans that it invites a conflagration in South Asia.