About that Madison recall turnout

6/5/12 8:52 PM EDT

I wrote earlier about how those reports of "119 percent turnout" in Madison, Wis., were overstated; the pace, according to the Madison clerk's office, was for 96 percent turnout — still a pretty astounding number.

But it's possible that figure is overstated as well.

If you had applied the rough projection model the clerk's office was using — doubling the 4 p.m. actual turnout percentage to project final turnout at the 8 p.m. poll closing — to the May 8 primary, it would have overestimated the final turnout figure.

While the number of actual votes cast more than doubled between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m. on May 8, the pace of voting slowed between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. The projection at 4 p.m. would have been for 48 percent turnout at the end of the day — but the actual turnout ended up closer to 41 percent.

None of that is to suggest recall election turnout in Madison was anything other than huge today. But like so many other early numbers knocking around on an election day — early exit polling, early returns, etc — before the polls close and all the votes are counted it pays to look at them with some skepticism.