United States Inflation

United States: Inflation increases to year-and-a-half high in May

June 17, 2014

In May, consumer prices increased 0.4% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which followed the 0.3% rise recorded in April and marked the largest monthly gain in 15 months. The increase, which doubled market expectations of a 0.2% rise, was driven primarily by higher prices for transportation services, gasoline and food.

Annual inflation inched up from 2.0% in April to 2.1% in May, which marked the highest result since October 2012. The monthly core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices, ticked up from the 0.2% recorded in April to 0.3% in May. The reading came in slightly above market expectations of a 0.2% rise and marked the highest level since October 2009. Annual core inflation came in at 1.9% in May (April: 1.8%), while annual average core inflation held steady at 1.7% for the fifth consecutive month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 1.7% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2015, the panel expects average inflation to rise to 2.0%.

Author:Carl Kelly, Economist

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Retail sales unexpectedly dropped 0.3% from the previous month in January, sharply contrasting the 0.3% month-on-month increase that market analysts had expected, as well as the downwardly revised flat reading recorded in December (previously reported: +0.4% month-on-month).