We address these questions in our 2019-20 Outlook, covering 13 countries (G3+Asia10) and 4 asset classes. Faced with fading momentum, the best one can expect from the global economy is an orderly slowdown, helped by prudent policy calibration. Ongoing slowdown in China and late cycle dynamics in the US will direct asset prices, in our view. Staying long USD, short duration, and cautious about equities and credits are strategies for next year, but as 2019 progresses, markets will begin to price in a slowdown scenario, taking steam away from t USD and rates. All of this will keep volatility high, in our view.

There are some potential positives for Asia: (i) low oil prices will help keep inflation down and ease BOP pressure, softening policy tightening bias; (ii) asset market sell-off from 2018 may bring back value-seeking investors; (iii) as the realisation that using China as an exporting hub is going to be challenging going forward sets in, ASEAN economies may see trade diversion related investment; and (iv) in some economies, fiscal policy will likely be eased (China, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines).