FAQ: Behind the Brexit fisheries transition deal

British Environment Secretary Michael Gove has long demanded the U.K. renegotiate fishing quotas and access for EU vessels to British waters after Brexit, a proposal popular with British fishermen. Just last week, Gove and Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said it was "vital" the country regain control over the management of its fisheries after March 29, 2019.

Then came the transition agreement, signed by the EU and the U.K. on Monday, which says the U.K. will stay in the much-maligned EU Common Fisheries Policy and the quotas will remain in place during the Brexit transition period, which will last until December 31, 2020.

Brexiteers are furious. Instead of "taking back control," the agreement leaves Britain bound by the EU's fishing rules but with no say in the quota it will receive. Gove told MPs that while he shared the "disappointment" of fishing communities at what he described as the EU's refusal to budge on the issue, they should keep their "eyes on the prize" of regaining control.

Here's POLITICO's guide to how the Brexit transition deal will impact fisheries.

What had the U.K. government promised?

Gove has positioned himself as anti-Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), the EU's legislation on how to manage fisheries in the bloc. Despite the draft agreement on the transition period upholding the status quo, Gove on March 11 published a joint statement with Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson urging Britain to leave the CFP. “We believe it is vital that we regain control over our own fisheries management. We want to use the opportunity of Brexit to secure a sustainable marine environment for the next generation," reads the statement.

How are fishing quotas decided?

Each year, the European Commission proposes total allowable catch limits for stocks within EU waters. These numbers are set using scientific advice from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. The total number of catches is then divided between EU countries using a fixed allocation percentage called the relative stability key, to determine how much fish each country gets. EU countries can exchange quotas with each other.

The U.K. and Ireland have access to a special mechanism called the Hague Preference. When the duo joined the EU, they negotiated the right to increase their share of a quota to safeguard coastal communities dependent on certain fish stocks such as cod and haddock. This has often benefitted the U.K. because it has allowed it to up its quota shares.

What will change during a transition?

The U.K. will technically not have a place at the negotiating table during quota negotiations in 2019. However, it will still be bound by the Common Fisheries Policy and be consulted on quotas set in its waters. It is unlikely that this arrangement will change much on a practical level. Gove told the U.K. parliament that the EU has an incentive to "act in good faith" because if not, the U.K. may "be less generous" with the EU fleet once its leaves the EU.

What does “consultation” mean in practice?

Under the agreement, the U.K. will have the right to be consulted on quotas set in its waters. In practice, this means the right to comment on the Commission's Annual Communication and other proposals on fishing opportunities as well as scientific advice from bodies like the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. The European Commission has yet to decide what form this consultation will take.

What happens after the transition?

Once the U.K. officially leaves the EU on January 1, 2021, it becomes an independent coastal state with the ability to set its own fisheries management law. When the U.K. becomes a coastal state, it has the right to control who fishes in a 200-nautical-mile zone around the island, known as the exclusive economic zone.

The U.K. likely won't become a fishing Wild West. Under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, countries that share maritime borders must jointly manage shared fish stocks. The EU and the U.K. share more than 100 fish stocks.

The British government is also working on its own domestic fisheries management bill. There are still discussions about the extent to which the new legislation will resemble the Common Fisheries Policy it will replace. An EU fisheries analyst confirmed to POLITICO that a decision is expected in the coming weeks.

Does that mean foreign trawlers will be banned from U.K. waters?

Not necessarily, but it will be up to the Brits to decide who fishes in U.K. waters. Anyone hoping to cast their nets around Blighty will need a license from the British government.

This system could be organized in the same way as Norway, which issues permits every year for the EU fleet to catch species ranging from cod to herring in their waters. Brussels holds talks with Oslo each year to facilitate these fishing rights as part of a broader quota swap. Another version could be a style similar to Greenland, which has institutionalized the EU's share of quotas in its waters in exchange for other benefits.

However, since the U.K. exports much of its fish to the EU, it may be willing to trade market access for fishing rights to maintain tariff-free status for U.K. fish and seafood products. EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has stated that market access for U.K. fish and seafood products is contingent on allowing EU vessels to fish in U.K. waters.

Jack Boot

Excellent news:
Obviously the gov has given up on the prospect of any real deal and is simply going through the motions in order to put something in front of parliament to be rejected.
And the more extracted, perverted and one sided this becomes the higher the probability any agreement will be rejected and lead to WTO.
And don’t forget, Spain needs to sabre rattle to counteract its disaster in Catalonia.

The World does not owe EU a living and the EU is fast running out of other peoples money.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:04 AM CET

François P

The UK government had asked for a standstill agreement whereby nothing much would change compared to EU membership. A standstill agreement implies that the UK keeps almost all the benefits of EU membership (except decision making), but also all the obligations. There was absolutely no reason to make an exception for fishing or FoM, as the UK government has tried to.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:52 AM CET

Antoine uk

I don’t understand your enthusiasm to go WTO… Suicide does not look an attractive option to me…
This is the UK small brat behaviour … always complaining and threatening…
Take note : There is no more Mother EU taking care of the small brat trying to keep a happy family and happily distributing rebates, opt outs, etc….
This is now UK, having to grow up and face the real world on its own… UK needs friends so Best is to do separation smoothly and face responsibilties.
Ex Mother EU is ready to help but needs to protect the rest of the family, so behave and there will be a damage limitation agreement.
It can’t be a win win as UK decision arms Ireland, the EU and the UK.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:58 AM CET

Mike .

@Jack Boot

I think your optimism is misplaced. If parliament rejects the deal then its likely May’s government will fall and there will be another general election. I doubt that’s something that May is attempting to arrange.
Throughout the negotiations May’s only red line appears to be that the wording doesn’t look too embarrassing rather than what the content actually is. No matter what we might wish it would seem the eu negotiators have the upper hand. Fishing rights are just one example of that. There may come a point where conservative MPs withdraw support, possibly over his or on NI or Gibraltar once the situation is clearer. If that happens then it will take a conservative victory with a new leader for anything other than the current capitulation to continue.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 12:01 PM CET

François P

It might be reflecting on what the UK would have got if it had chosen to go down the EEA route straight away:
– control of agriculture
– control of fisheries
– ability to conclude trade agreements
– lower financial contributions
– easier solution for NI

Posted on 3/21/18 | 12:10 PM CET

Jack Boot

@Mike .

If Theresa falls then she is simply replaced with a hard line brexiteer who will automatically become PM and the EU’s problems multiply and makes WTO sooner and even more likely. 🙂 If its not fair and balanced and include finacial services then it will be rejected.

The harder the EU push the less likely a deal…..
But to be honest, WTO is the only possible outcome. 🙂

Posted on 3/21/18 | 12:17 PM CET

Jack Boot

@Mike .

You should bear in mind the attitude of the ‘remainers’.
The remainers do not realise that remaining is simply not an option. They will reject any deal at any cost simply to prevent a deal – they think that will benefit them in some way…
They also guarantee WTO. Thats 48% against any deal before we even consider the ones that want to leave but will also reject a crap deal. 🙂
The EU are giving me my WTO is guaranteed. Best get ready for it.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 12:26 PM CET

Jack Boot

@François PIt might be reflecting on what the UK would have got if it had chosen to go down the EEA route straight away:
– control of agriculture
– control of fisheries
– ability to conclude trade agreements
– lower financial contributions
– easier solution for NI

I get the same from ‘no deal’ and it costs me less !

Posted on 3/21/18 | 12:28 PM CET

Jack Boot

PLUS i dont have to follow your rules, obey your ecj, accepy FoM.

WTO is a FAR better solution.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 12:30 PM CET

Jack Boot

@Antoine ukSuicide does not look an attractive option to me…

As your Priscilla du Bot so eloquently put it;
“I do not mind if my cow is dead so long as all my neighbours cows are dead“.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 12:49 PM CET

John Rob

Fishing is a red line. In the 1970s fishing towns were decimated after joining the EEC.

Spannish trawlers used to cut the nets of the buoys sinking UK nets. Families that had been fishing for generations and had fought to protect the UK and its waters were left unemployed and ruined.

Its like the UK saying to the EU, if you want to continue to export meat and vegetables to the UK then we need X millions of acres on the continent that we can farm.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 12:52 PM CET

John Rob

We import most of the fish we eat from fish caught in UK waters from continental fishing ships.

Those exports are fish caught in UK waters by foreign boats, they are not real exports. We then have to import them back at premium.

The UK is an island nation and was famed for its fish and seafood. This was like France being told to let other countries grow and farm its vineyards.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 12:58 PM CET

Mike .

@François P
EEA wouldn’t work for the uk. As an EEA member the UK would have to follow single market rules written in Brussels over which it had no say. Brussels is already seen as unacceptably undemocratic in the uk even with a uk voice in decision making. Without that voice it simply would not be tolerated. This was the main driver of the leave vote.
EEA membership fees are not that different to that of full EU membership.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 1:00 PM CET

François P

@Mike .

I am not necessarily saying that this is a definitive solution. But I believe it would have been a meaningful step towards leaving the EU. It would have provided the UK a stable platform from which the UK could rethink its relationship with the EU.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 1:17 PM CET

Mike .

@François P
You are not alone, moving to the EEA was proposed by many and considered by the UK government. It was rejected for the reasons I gave and its being unlikely to be accepted by the general public. Its was very popular amoung remainers as it was hoped that the next move the uk would make would be back into the eu.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 1:25 PM CET

Antoine uk

Francois P is right. Single market is in UK interest
Extreme Brexiters do not understand yet that, unless you go North Korea, trade requires agreeing rules.
SM/CU is in UK interest and justifies paying as this costs money to manage, it brings lots of savings as you don’t need to do the same thing 30 times in 30 odd countries.
Look at the thousands civil servants having been hired in UK at the moment and how many more will be in order to generate more red tape, administrative chores, etc… It is not going to improve competitiveness…

Posted on 3/21/18 | 1:32 PM CET

Steuersklav Erei

@ Francois P

‘But I believe it would have been a meaningful step towards leaving the EU. It would have provided the UK a stable platform from which the UK could rethink its relationship with the EU.’

Why would the EU have been interested in negotiating a comprehensive free trade deal with the UK if the UK were inside the EEA?

Posted on 3/21/18 | 3:29 PM CET

Tom Cotton

@ Mike

Mike, you sound like a very reasonable pro-Brexit individual (a characteristic sorely missing in this forum, unfortunately). So let me ask you then: How do you see this play out over the next 6 months? Do you believe there is a solution to NI which allows for a withdrawal agreement to be signed? Is there a realization among pro-Brexit folks in the UK that they might get far less than what they were promised from the Brexit proponents…a sobering, if you will…or do you see a hardening stance instead, with movement away from May and towards Rees-Moog?

Posted on 3/21/18 | 6:22 PM CET

blue bell

Where is Kapitän Vogelaugen when you need him?

Posted on 3/21/18 | 6:55 PM CET

Mike .

@Tom Cotton

Mike, you sound like a very reasonable pro-Brexit individual

Thank you

Do you believe there is a solution to NI which allows for a withdrawal agreement to be signed?

I believe there is. The GFA requirements are significantly less than SM and CU membership impose and a small regulatory divide in the irish sea that does not impact NI/British trade should be sellable to the unionist community. No matter what happens the uk will not impose a border. At the moment there is an unfortunate alignment of interests between RoI/Germany/France that a deal be delayed. The RoI hopes that if brexit cannot be undone at least continued membership of SM/CU might be achieved. Germany and France benefit from every week of delay as companies relocate from britain as they lose patience with the lack of a deal. At some point the uk will have to walk away so as the risk of no deal increases some common sense solution will emerge.

Is there a realization among pro-Brexit folks in the UK that they might get far less than what they were promised from the Brexit proponents

This is probably where our opinions diverge. I spent many years doing statistics so rather than read the newspaper articles I go straight to the polling tables. There is a divide in the uk I have never seen before. 90% of remainers prime motivation for their vote was based on the propects for the economy. Leavers were more mixed, only 10% were motivated by money and that was the money sent to Brussels. They (and I) are unlikely to change views over the ‘promises’ as they were simply a salve for the economic fears raised in the campaign rather than a prime motivator. While ‘the plan’ involves an end point where the eu no longer has a say in uk affairs then Leavers will stay on board. If that starts to look unlikely then I suspect the result will be a change in leadership rather than a change in opinion.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 8:37 PM CET

John Rob

@Mike that’s an interesting and very agreeable post.

Those I know that voted remain tend to cite the 2 year uncertainty after the vote as the reason. Worried that their job may be affected and so were risk adverse, especially those with families. They were told the opposite of what has happened which is record employment, record unemployment continued growth, wage inflation increasing now above CPI.

That feeds into the poll that showed a few months ago that around 70% now just want to get on with Brexit.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 9:09 PM CET

Jack Boot

@John Rob

You are 100% correct in the vast majority now just want it over with.
The EU has until 29th March 2019 to come up with a deal otherwise their will be no transition. If there is an acceptable deal then great, if there isn’t then great.
The March 2019 is the deadline when the UK leaves the EU.
It is also the deadline for the EU to provide clarity – the EU cannot ‘string’ the UK along’. One way or another March 2019 is the deadline and there are only two possible outcomes. 1) a fair balanced trade deal in services or 2) simple WTO and the consequences for the EU.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 10:30 PM CET

Tom Cotton

@Mike

Mike, I cannot tell you how refreshing it is to read such a differentiated pro-Brexit opinion! While we disagree on the “big one” – is Brexit a good or a bad idea?- and while we disagree on some nuances -I do not believe that Germany and France delay this in order to gain a business advantage, for example- simply having an intelligent debate with a pro-Brexit Brit is…wow, amazing!

I take you at your word with regard to the mood in the country and the polls you cite. Adversity tends to make people close ranks…our remarkably incompetent president #43 (who looks like a genius in hindsight, compared to #45) had 80% approval ratings after 9/11.
But let me ask you this, now that I finally have an honest and smart Brexiteer to talk to:
1) Was there a discussion among Leavers that Brexit could do real damage to Europe and Britain’s role in Europe? Not EU, mind you…I get the whole “It is an undemocratic club” argument. But Europe…was this a consideration for Leavers or not? And if yes, is there truly so little pride in being European…as opposed to, say, part of the Anglo-American union? In my view, our #44 gave you the best advice before 2016, urging you to stay part of Europe and not try to re-make (re? Arguable) an Anglo-American union which at first sight might benefit the US. We often joked that we could make the UK our 51st state (you would be second or third biggest, based on GDP, I think :)…but joking aside, Obama had your best interest in mind when he urged you not to do this…not the least as the US needs a strong Europe geostrategically. Trump sees it differently, of course, but that is not worth discussing: Republicans and Dems always saw it as #44 and #43…and this will be true soon enough again.
2) Was there a serious discussion among smart Leavers such as yourself that Brexit could rupture the UK itself? You just had the Scottish referendum…narrow by all means. And you have NI, and you have Gibraltar…Brexit creates real stress for your union. Was that a consideration or not?
3)UK internal politics
Do you truly believe that May could be replaced by a hardliner without the entire Tory government collapsing? I do not see it – but I am an ocean away.
Second part to this: Is Brexit extraordinary enough that Labor and Tories could do something that is usually unthinkable and agree to a “shared crisis government” if and when May fails?
Lastly, let me add #4 as I am interested in your take on an argument of mine which the usual suspects here routinely ignore:
4) NI/ROI and animal health
An excellent Politico article from last weekend highlighted the fact – new to me, for sure- that animal health policy is already organized “island wide”. In other words, the dividing line is the sea border between NI and the rest of the UK, rather than the NI/ROI border. This makes all the sense in the world when you look at this as a technocratic problem…but of course there is politics at stake here. Could trade be analyzed in the same way as animal health, or is this politically too toxic for May (and her DUP dependence)?

Appreciate your thoughts!

Posted on 3/21/18 | 10:53 PM CET

Kari Gustafsson

@Tom Cotton

For once I agree with Jack Boot, you, as an American have far more to worry about in your own country then anyone has to worry anout either in the EU or in the UK.
You should sort your own house out first.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:10 PM CET

Tom Cotton

@John Rob

John, you also sound semi-reasonable :))…I say that in semi-jest.

So did I understand you correctly that you believe that many voters feel better about the economic reality now than what (mostly Remainers) many predicted?
What about the NHS disaster during this winter…it made major headlines here in the US! It was used as an example why single payer is a socialist pipe dream…by the usual suspects here in America. You were promised much more money for the NHS as a result of Brexit…and now all agree that that was false, don’t they?…does that not feel like a betrayal?
How about Putin’s actions in the heart of the UK? Is this still remote enough that you do not feel you need a strong Europe around you – not the EU, mind you, but the political Europe which happens to be organized economically as the EU? And with Trump compromised by Putin (your fellow Brit Steele delivered an excellent expose, and of course most of it will turn out to be true…after Trump is impeached and after GOP enablers are gone) and the US therefore not willing to help…no worries? Really?

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:13 PM CET

Jack Boot

@Kari Gustafsson

I think “Tom Cotton” is yet another false flag Priscilla du bot huh huh robot. 🙁
The sort that does you remainers no service whatsoever.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:14 PM CET

Tom Cotton

Kari,
You always agree with Boot – which is not surprising as you ARE Boot. Both of you copy and paste the same (boring and idiotic) posts in various threads here, and both of you say the same thing. But there is good news in this – at least you are not schizophrenic!

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:16 PM CET

Jack Boot

@Kari Gustafsson

Looks like he hasn’t seen the investment or pay rises for the NHS and doesnt realise the sheer number of EU perople that come to the UK to work in the NHS because they cannot find work in the EU due to lack of funds on their own health services.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:17 PM CET

Kari Gustafsson

@Jack Boot

I must admit that “Tom Cotton” sounds very much like Priscilla and Priscilla hasn’t posted as herself today. Maybe “Tom Cotton” is one of her alias’s when she is in the US ?
I don’t like that kind of thing.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:22 PM CET

Jack Boot

@Tom Cotton
“The Anglo-American hubris got a one-two punch over the last 3 years…let’s hope both nations recover from it!

Hello Priscilla ! 🙂 It was your language / terminology that gave you away.. 🙂

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:32 PM CET

Tom Cotton

Jack,
You are funny! And clearly not a linguist – otherwise you would be able to tell that Priscilla is neither Finn nor Tpk nor Antoine nor Fracois. Just as I know that you are not Steuer or Anthony even though you mostly agree with each other 🙂

But having said that: Would you mind populating another thread with your brilliance? I am waiting for some serious answers from John and Mike.

And if you have a Trump question for me…hold the thought and ask me later, would you? Feel free to ask as Kari or Boot or Yellow Submarine…as long as it is constructive.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:39 PM CET

Jack Boot

@Tom Cotton

Try this one: Who do you think Trump is really going after with his trade war and why?

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:41 PM CET

Alan

@Tom Cotton

I’m sure Mike will make is own reply to your post but in relation to the animal health issue I guess that grew out of the impact of the Irish Sea as a barrier to transmission of communicable diseases in livestock such as swine fever, foot & mouth, BSE etc.
Managing a limited number of ports of entry has obvious attractions in that context. Same attractions would apply to cross border trade in either direction in livestock/agricultural products for processing between here & ROI. Particularly so since those categories would be a substantial part of cross-border trade.
Reality is that if you look at the combined intra-UK trade between NI & GB & ROI & GB cross border trade between here & ROI is in effect not much more than a rounding error.

It is essentially a political problem

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:44 PM CET

Jack Boot

@Tom Cotton

Do you think it’s un-fair that ALL EU members who do NOT pay their fair share, (and agreed comittement) to NATO should be exposed and treated differently? Or would you rather America continue to subsidise them and their exports and sacrifice their soldiers?

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:47 PM CET

Tom Cotton

If your question is “What is his real strategy here?” then the answer is easy: He has none! He never does. It is hilarious how so many intelligent people try to interpret his actions…and yet they are senseless gut reactions.
If your question is “Why does he do it?” then I tell you: He is a true believer in America First. For him, this is less about the rural workers here…he doesn’t care about other people, except for maybe his children (and definitely NOT his wives, current and former)…it is about THIS FEELING.
This feeling of righteousness that you get when you scream MY COUNTRY FIRST (sounds familiar, doesn’t it?)…very similar to the feeling you have as a City fan when United loses. Or as Pep fan when Mourino goes down.
He likes how it make him feel when he sticks it to others. That is his life story: He gets the bully’s satisfaction when he destroys things…which is why smarter people such as Bannon -a true revolutionary who wants chaos. Who wants to destroy “the deep state”…just like Putin- realized early that they can ride the moron all the way to the top.

Satisfied?

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:52 PM CET

Jack Boot

@Alan
“A rounding error

Agreed, the likes of tpk think the ROI/NI border sees millions of trucks crossing the border every day. Which is simply not the case. The traffic is relatively small and can easily be managed by the EU’s own proposed “Smart Border 2.0″ solution“.

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:52 PM CET

Jack Boot

@Tom Cotton“Am I satisfied”

With what? You didn’t attempt to answer my question !

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:53 PM CET

Tom Cotton

NATO and defense spending – good topic, my friend! We in the US…those of us who care about NATO and who like Europe…are very frustrated with the European’s reluctance to pay more for their own security. We are frustrated with French and German business ties to Russia which are way too close for comfort. And -now you will start screaming again- we are frustrated how the City has allowed dirty Russian money to take over all over London…be that a Putin buddy owning Chelsea or all the other sickos who brought money and corruption with it.

But yes: The Uk, just as Poland, is a far more reliable partner in this than Germany and France

Satisified?

Posted on 3/21/18 | 11:57 PM CET

Tom Cotton

Jack,
I think Alan said exactly the opposite: Trade between NI and the rest of the UK is a rounding error and the problem is a political one in that what makes sense cannot be agreed on as the unionists would blow up (and then blow up the coalition).

But yes, it would be interesting to get real numbers as to the relevant trade numbers for NI…as far as the stuff is concerned that actually needs to cross borders. I admit I don’t know them, but I highly doubt that a few sea ports and a few airports could do anything close to what 200 or so land crossings do.

Real data, anyone?

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:02 AM CET

Jack Boot

@Tom Cotton

Perfect, you even manage to put the UK as your worst enemy with London flooded with Russian money (not accurate as it is all over europe, esp Luxemburg) and you didn’t even single out or mentioning the prime culprit and Germany’s lack of contributions and comitments for over 40 years. Which amount equivalent to well over 150 BILLION dollars that they have effectively stolen from you. And because they charge unequal tariffs you are paying for their continued lifestyle every day and you don’t mind while your fellow country men struggle. Priscilla. 🙂
Trump may be a bit of a ‘loon’ but his heart is in the right place!

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:06 AM CET

Jack Boot

@Tom Cotton
“I highly doubt that a few sea ports and a few airports could do anything close to what 200 or so land crossings do.

Well, how the hell then do you think 200 or so land crossings manage to get enough trade to flood 200 or so land crossings to the point that a smart border cannot cope when there are only a few airports and seaports? Where then if not via sea or air, is all your imaginary trade with the UK coming from ?

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:12 AM CET

Jack Boot

Maybe the UK simply teleports it into NI to be shipped across the border?
Should we recalibrate the teleporter so that trade can be teleported directly into ROI?

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:17 AM CET

Tom Cotton

Well, Jack, this is your opinion. No surprise that you don’t dislike Trump…what parts are a bit loony, btw?
For many Americans the picture is far more complicated: We recognize that Germany has a complicated recent history which did not allow them, until very recently, to dispatch any troops at all. Politically toxic – and many partners, the UK included, liked it that way, to the point of resisting German unification as your government feared a unified Germany. So what do you want? A highly militarized Germany instead?
We also realize that many Eastern European countries -Poland and Latvia, for example- have a much better antenna for the Russian threat than Western European ones. And we acknowledge that the UK has always been a reliable partner and our closest ally in this regard…Corbyn is looked at with suspicion, as is UKIP. A traditional socialist and a right wing populist, one with favorable views of Russia as an ex-SU, the other with favorable views of Putin as an autocratic ruler…look at Italy, same thing: It is the right wing parties which are close to Putin…not a surprise as Putin is far closer to Franco and Mussolini than Marx and Engels.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:19 AM CET

Jack Boot

@Tom Cotton

You will find that most UK-ROI trade goes directly between UK and the ROI (Holyhead and Dublin) and only a small portion destined for ROI goes via NI. As for trade traffic between NI and ROI thats relatively small and is covered by the EU’s North South co-operation clause.

Yep, Alan is correct, the problem isnt logistics, it is simply down to a political agenda.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:23 AM CET

Jack Boot

@Tom Cotton
“A highly militarized Germany instead?”

If you are American you know as well as I do that Germany does not need to make any political or military contributions, it is the financing of NATO that matters. Germany could have made (and could still make) contributions into a ‘common pot’ that all NATO members could draw from (inc USA). Germany has no excuse for meeting its commitments and never has.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:29 AM CET

Jack Boot

Dear me, Corbyn is of the “old school commy labour” of 30 years ago who promises everything and can deliver nothing. He will never gain power. But there are always people who will vote for those who promise to buy the ice creams.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:33 AM CET

Jack Boot

The average UK person wants to break free of the EU. Self determination is an old term but its probably the most accurate. Most people are not particulay “anti” anything, other than wishing to break free from a system that people do not consider serves their best interests. If thats a bad thing then we (and I) are bad people. I am a moderate like 95% of people that support brexit (by the way and I voted to remain). But now I’d rather regret leaving than regret staying. If you want to judge and condem people for wanting what they want then you are not iiving in the America that I know. 🙁

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:40 AM CET

Mike .

@Tom Cotton

I’ll try!

1) Was there a discussion among Leavers that Brexit could do real damage to Europe and Britain’s role in Europe?

To be honest, no. That geo-political viewpoint seems to drive many of the pro EU politicians but that wasn’t how the people on either side of the referendum debate framed it. For leavers it was mostly the democracy thing and the feeling of being subsumed into an unaccountable monolith. For remainers I think the polling of 90% being economically motivated does them a disservice and reflects more the negative campaign. There is a genuine feeling of having turned our backs on the EU ‘family’ so it is again more emotional than strategic thinking.

Obama had your best interest in mind when he urged you not to do this…

I’m afraid his intervention did not have the effect he intended. Had he stuck to sage like brotherly advice he might have been ok. Unfortunately he decided to point out that the uk would be ‘at the back of the queue’ for a future US trade deal if it voted to leave. Hearing the leader of our closest ally so bluntly attempting to influence a UK democratic vote with a threat that we would be staring at the back of Kim Jong-un’s head in the line for a trade deal went down very badly. There was an immediate shift in polling numbers. It was poor judgement but I suspect it was Cameron rather than Obama.

2) …Brexit creates real stress for your union. Was that a consideration or not
Again pretty much no. Had the scottish independence referendum been after the eu vote then that would have become a factor I think but as it was the issues were thought of and treated seperately. People hold strong views on membership of the uk the same as with the eu. Gibraltar had a massive remain vote in the referendum but also overwhelmingly wishes to remain British and its clear the latter is more important to them. Obviously its much more divided in Scotland and NI but those views are so strongly held that leaving the eu doesn’t budge the numbers much.

3)UK internal politics
Do you truly believe that May could be replaced by a hardliner without the entire Tory government collapsing?

Possible but would need extreme circumstances to get the support of MPs. If May goes it would be because of the negotiations collapsing. Only if the failure was seen to be due to an unacceptable EU demands could a majority unite behind a ‘hard’ brexiter. Otherwise another unifying candidate would be found. Sheer fear of a Labour victory in another general election should focus Conservative minds on mending their disagreements.

Is Brexit extraordinary enough that Labor and Tories could do something that is usually unthinkable and agree to a “shared crisis government” if and when May fails?

Under normal circumstances labour/conservatives might do this but with Conservatives/Corbyn not a chance. Each regards the other as toxic and unfit to govern.

4) NI/ROI and animal health

Despite appearances attitudes in NI are reasonably pragmatic. The unionists don’t want to erect a border with the republic but neither do they want one with the uk. Practical arrangements are fine but nothing that seperates NI from the UK in any formal sense. Everyone agrees the border should be open to people, its goods that are the problem. EU nations want to be sure NI doesn’t become an unpoliced back door into the SM. If both sides agree to ignore locals doing their shopping then importers/exporters pre registering shipments should form the basis of a solution. Random checks on goods vehicles both in the border area and on irish sea shipping is probably a fair and equal price that both communities could accept to resolve the problem.
Live animals are a special problem but assuming each side agree to the same vetinary standards (probably eu) and recognise each other’s approvals then cows can continue to roam across the border as they do now.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:49 AM CET

Jack Boot

@Tom Cotton
“look at Italy, same thing: It is the right wing parties which are close to Putin…

Woa, where on Earth do you get your missinformation?
Germany is the single EU country that is currently working with Russia.
What Merkel and Putin both call the special Russia/Germanic relationship.
Italy is a far more traditional and peaceful non antagonistic european country and is no threat to anyone.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 12:53 AM CET

Jack Boot

@Mike .

Don’t be surprised if he doesnt answer tonight, he is as American as I am and it’s an hour later (or more) in the EU now.. He might be in bed… If he answers he might just be up late. 🙂

Posted on 3/22/18 | 1:00 AM CET

Jack Boot

@Mike .
I will stick my neck out and say that he is just another German with a chip on his shoulder.
Sorry. 🙂 But I can smell them an hour away.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 1:07 AM CET

Jack Boot

“Corbyn is looked at with suspicion, as is UKIP. A traditional socialist and a right wing populist, one with favorable views of Russia as an ex-SU, the other with favorable views of Putin as an autocratic ruler…look at Italy, same thing: It is the right wing parties which are close to Putin…not a surprise as Putin is far closer to Franco and Mussolini than Marx and Engels.”

Notice how he/she slags everything and everyone but avoids mentioning good old A.Hitla ?

Posted on 3/22/18 | 1:12 AM CET

blue bell

@Tom Cotton
Could you tell us where the Mexican drug money is being laundered?

Posted on 3/22/18 | 1:56 AM CET

blue bell

@Jack Boot @Mike

Guys look at the choice of words, phrasing, the syntax is English! This is not a European with a chip on their shoulder. It is most certainly not an American. They are professional and after information.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 2:19 AM CET

Tom Cotton

Thanks Mike! This is very much along the lines of what I suspected, and most importantly tremendously reasonable. It is good to converse with somebody who makes sense!

Blue bell, really? You think I am working for some kind of intelligence service, trying to extract information? That is truly hilarious. Don’t kid yourself: None of us here are important enough that anybody would bother to “extract” anything.

Well, except for the usual Russian trolls…but I am pretty sure that those are still hung over from their celebration of another successful sham election.

Mike, just got back from walking my dog in the winter wonderland we got today here in Wladiwostok…ahem: Philadelphia (bluebell and Boot, I hope you don’t notice the Freudian slip!) and will sign off on this thread…but I hope to read your comments again on BREXIT topics: This forum has a number of really smart and thoughtful pro-EU27 contributors…Finn comes to mind, but also Peter Monta and Antoine and a few others…and yet it is desperately lacking the same quality on the pro-Brexit side.

If we could exchange information rather than insults then this forum could actually be educational for all of us. You did your part: Thanks for that.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 3:26 AM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@Jack Boot
“@Mike .
I will stick my neck out and say that he is just another German with a chip on his shoulder.
Sorry. But I can smell them an hour away.”

Your GERMAN wife now lives a one hour’s drive from you? Good to know she finally came to her senses :-D.

Of course, now we all understand your urge to booze day in, day out ….. and your hatred of everything German :-D.

Priscilla du Bleu

Bonjour, Antoine! WTO and suicide and our resident saggy booty …. well, if your life was as miserable as the booty’s, suicide may look like a rather good alternative, because: improvement.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 9:07 AM CET

Ghost of JB

@Mike

I agree that so far our government has given way on many issues that it seems we could have been stronger on. I believe that this is a calculation to enable the real negotiation on the post-Brexit relationship to start.

Whether the current PM and government will fall will depend on how they perform in this phase of negotiation. Granting the EU ongoing access to British fisheries after 2021 will be a much harder sell to the UK electorate.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 9:44 AM CET

Alan

@Tom Cotton

I am afraid you misunderstood me – it is cross border trade between NI & RoI which is in effect the rounding error.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 1:43 PM CET

Tom Cotton

@Alan

Thanks Alan.
You have just outlined the solution to the NI problem – similar to Mike, btw.

Your government needs to present a detailed plan, based on all cross-border trade over the, say, last 5 years (to get a trend)…a plan outlining the solutions for NI.
A few items might follow animal health and get a sea border. Others might be able to be done with technology. As to people crossing the border…well, I am sure smart people can figure something out: The UK does not want unregulated entry via NI. The EU does not want…unregulated entry via NI.

If May’s government can put a detailed and stratified solution on the table then this becomes a technocratic issue, rather than a political landmine.

Posted on 3/22/18 | 2:16 PM CET

blue bell

@Tom Cotton

I will give you that you put ‘z’ s in your words like an American.

Now on to your “If we could exchange information rather than insults then this forum could actually be educational for all of us”

This is a gossip forum and is not the place for an education – go to Amazon and order some books – this site equates to a ‘coffee table magazine’. Why would you be interested in European current affairs? What is your driver for this interest?

Posted on 3/22/18 | 3:42 PM CET

Alan

@Tom Cotton

A bit out of date but there are stats on the cso.ie website (ROI Govt site) which show that in 2015 – ROI exported c15.5bn to UK of which 1.7bn went to NI, also ROI imported 18bn from UK of which c1.1bn came from NI. In both cases NI accounted for a mere 1.6% of the global total ROI imports/exports. Bearing in mind of course that that could well be double counting – raw milk from NI processed in RoI, returned to NI for cheese making or cream liquers, animals slaughtered in ROI & carcasses returned to NI for meat processing etc – works both ways & much of the end product ends up in GB markets)

Last NI stats I found showed total sales by businesses in NI of c76bn so estimating ROI related trade as c5% of the total is not unreasonable.

Agriculture/animal health is a special case because of the impacts of the Irish Sea as a quarantine barrier for disease. There are no implications for any other sectors.

As regards movement of people, that is already covered by the UK-RoI Common travel Area agreement (which predates EU membership) which allows citizen of ROI/UK/Channel Islands & Isle of Man to move freely within & between those jurisdictions – it does not apply to citizens of any other countries, inc EU countries. Its part of the reason why RoI has never been part of Schengen.

Sales between NI & GB are UK domestic sales and cannot be subject to any form of customs intervention.

The only option I see is that commercial traffic transiting NI but originating in or destined for ROI might be diverted through a customs clearance facility at NI ports whilst domestic traffic proceeds unhindered. Usual assumption is that only c5% of cross border traffic might be subject to customs checks so a relatively small portion of overall traffic through NI ports

The danger for ROI is that no deal means a hard border for all of its trade with UK, its a political risk the ROI needs to consider very carefully particularly as much ROI traffic transits GB on its way to/from English Channel ports & could be delayed at both ends of that transit.
Overall the emphasis on the ROI- UK/NI border makes no sense economically or politically

Posted on 3/22/18 | 5:07 PM CET

Alan

For those exercised about ‘frictionless’ borders can a suggest a look at intertradeireland.com and navigate to their Simple Guide to doing business cross border.
It ain’t exactly frictionless today.

Volumes are driven by a relatively small number of big players particularly but not exclusively in the agri food sectors.
Having worked in the area of economic development it is producer price not political policy which drives both the direction & the quantum of trade

Posted on 3/22/18 | 8:04 PM CET

dorcas Thomas nee perry

The EU decide what our National quota for fish is. Currently, it is estimated that we get more than our fair share of the fish. We land the second highest tonnage in the EU & took 38% more fish than France in 2015. Norway & Iceland, not in the EU, land much more than us. It is the UK government that sets quotas for UK fishermen & starves fishermen on the south coast of fish, not the EU. If we left the EU we would lose out on fish overall, lose cod haddock & herring & lose exports of mainly herring. We would have to import even more cod & haddock. This is partly because, out of the EU, we would lose our right to fish in Norwegian waters.