* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

DonS |
April 9, 2013

I was told you have (about?) two weeks from when you place your order to pick colors and all the details. Orders get into the production queue as soon as all the choices are done.

Also, I was told there is no more deposit up front. All the money is due when the car is done. I guess that is why it is not called a reservation anymore.

Hodne |
April 9, 2013

EU P3349 (Norway) reported today.

Benz |
April 9, 2013

I cannot believe that the demand for the Tesla Model S in the US has stopped to grow further. I don't think that can be true. I don't think that the curve above tells the true story.

vgrinshpun |
April 9, 2013

Do not feed trolls. I've flagged these posts as inappropriate. Need two more flags to remove them from the site. These are lies by the shorts that are getting desperate.

GeirT |
April 9, 2013

@ Benz

Totally agree! If it was like this, why don't MS flood the EU market with cars right away to benefit from the demand momentum? This is simply not credible.

vgrinshpun |
April 9, 2013

Flag these posts inappropriate by hovering the mouse over the lower area of the post.

fluxemag |
April 9, 2013

They need 57 orders a day for 400 car per week run rate. Based on the TMC thread, European reservations alone have been around 17 a day for the last month or so. Since they don't publish sequence numbers for the US anymore, we really can't make any guesses about the remaining 40 that would be needed. They were running 500 per week in the factory for some time, probably to clear the backlog as much as possible. That said, all of the "40's" are still waiting, red is just entering production, and an unknown percentage of people with standard suspension are still waiting as well.

Nicu.Mihalache |
April 9, 2013

Is this the church of Tesla?

Why do people around here attack any inconvenient opinion with their newfound flagging power instead of asking the hard questions?

How is that one can order today and have the car delivered in two months if Tesla has orders for the full year as Elon says?

angel |
April 9, 2013

@Hodne / JAGN

Wow, 42 European orders in one day!?

vgrinshpun |
April 9, 2013

A bit of a presumptuous post, Nicu.Michalache.

I would like to suggest calling Tesla Ordering Hotline and trying to verify whether claim that $500 deposit at the time of ordering was eliminated.

I did just that - before posting. The claim is not accurate.

Nicu.Mihalache |
April 9, 2013

@ vgrinshpun

It's not even about if the guy is right or not. It's about trying to eliminate any discordant opinion. I am particularly sensitive to that as I have lived 1/3 of my life in a communist country where you COULD NOT have different opinions.

and Elon's statement two months ago or so that Tesla has orders for the entire 2013. Of course he may have implied that stores could be closed and online orders would slowly continue to come, but it's not the way he stated it in any case.

Brian H |
April 9, 2013

So much for all the nattering about illegitimately using deposits to fund operations. >:)

2. Elon never said "that Tesla has orders for the entire 2013". At about 3min 30sec into the Q4 2012 CC he actually said the following: "If you would have closed all our stores, worldwide, and not have any store specialists or sales people, we WOULD still FILL-OUT THROUGH THE YEAR"

Elon was indicating that existing orders plus the rate of on-line reservations would exceed Tesla production capacity through the remainder of 2013.

3. Regarding the Tesla stated lead time, two shorter ones - for P85 and 85 - are irrelevant for determining the backlog, unless one assumes that Tesla will be interrupting the production. The relevant lead time is the one quoted for 60kWh model - 3 months. Let's work the numbers:
End of Q4 backlog - 15,000
End of Q4 North American backlog = 0.75 x 15,000 = 11,250
Q1 North American Deliveries - 4,750
Q1 (new) North American Reservations = 0.75 x 3,000 = 2250
Total gross backlog: 11,250 - 4,750 + 2250 = 8,750
Cancellation rate 25%
Total net backlog 0.75 x 8,750 = 6562
Weekly production rate: 500
Weeks to fulfill the net backlog ~13
Months to fulfill the net backlog 13 / 4.333 = 3

I do not see any justifiable reason to question credibility of information provided by Elon and Tesla on this subject.

Brian H |
April 9, 2013

That cancellation rate is very high, and will fall towards zero as "reservatons" are used up and no longer taken. New orders in NA are firm from day one, no reservations to cancel.

cablue |
April 9, 2013

We just ordered our 2nd Model S on 4/6. We did put down the $5,000 deposit online. We have a "confirmation" number that starts with "RNxxx," and a message that states the following:

"Your deposit holds your place in line and is fully refundable. Your order will be considered confirmed in two weeks for the purposes of factory planning. Until then, you can make any changes you'd like. If you need more time, call us.

Delivery for this car is expected in about 1-2 months. One month prior to delivery, we'll contact you regarding finance options."

And:

"We will release your order to the factory on April 19th.
For more time, call us."

This is for an 85 kWh.

Nicu.Mihalache |
April 9, 2013

@ vgrinshpun

So all you calculations show that Tesla is indeed dependent of the new orders coming in.

After the heretic post, Benz said (emphasis mine):
"I cannot believe that the demand for the Tesla Model S in the US has stopped to grow further. I don't think that can be true. I don't think that the curve above tells the true story."

GeirT answer:
"Totally agree! If it was like this, why don't MS flood the EU market with cars right away to benefit from the demand momentum? This is simply not credible."

Among your insistent instigations to virtual violence against those who dare to ask what will be the demand (on which Tesla depends) going forward.

Congratulations! The misbelievers have been silenced! Yay ...

Brian H |
April 10, 2013

cabblue;
The RN # is meaningless, not sequential.

krissu |
April 10, 2013

To flood the market in Europe- thats not so simple and fast. We even have'nt heard what shall be the final configuration for charging. As confirmed by Tesla, it will have Chademo charging possibilty, 3 phase charging and many other specifications. Obviously that can't be added later by just software update. To get the European certification, the car needs to do various tests, these mostly can be done only on the final version of the production car. When the final version is done, it needs tests, paperwork, acceptance from authorities etc and then Tesla can send out an order for suppliers, to start (possibly first redesign) the production of parts. Until these hit the Tesla factory, the cars are built, shipped over thousands of miles, final assembly in Netherlands, then June-July sounds really optimistic. Did anyone notice during European testdrive which were the charging options? Are the testcars in European stores real European versions?

Brian H |
April 10, 2013

GB said CHAdeMO would be "native", and the connector is mennekes (sp?) compliant. European charging should be a breeze.

vgrinshpun |
April 10, 2013

@Nicu.Mihalache

All my post shows is that your skepticism toward what Elon Musk and Tesla say regarding the reservation is unfounded. There is no purpoted ”contradictory facts” there. Why can’t you bring yourself to acknowledge that you were wrong and change your conclusion if it was based on erroneous information?

My post shows that Tesla has about 3 month worth of North American reservations and about two more month worth of European and Asian reservations, for a total of approximately 5 month of sustained production at the current rate of 500 cars/week. Tesla will have plenty of reservations to sustain whatever rate of production they can efficiently sustain in 2013.

All Tesla needs is an average of about 30 reservations per day for the remainder of the year to support their planned increase of production to 650 cars/week (32.5 k annual rate) during the Fall.

As you can see from the posts above Europe alone had recently 42 reservations in one day.

Nicu.Mihalache |
April 10, 2013

@ vgrinshpun

It seems to me that either you are not grasping my message or you are knowingly changing the subject.

No matter what the numbers are, there was a poster with a different opinion but no aggressive or insulting language, no repeated illogical or annoying posts (like we know who), and you simply decided to eliminate his word because you know better.

I am sorry, I will not say one more word about that. If you still do not see any problem, there is nothing I can do for you to understand my point. From my point of view, this discussion is closed.

vgrinshpun |
April 10, 2013

@Nicu.Michalache

Ok, I will try one last time as well.

I would suggest that you are the one missing the point here. Facts matter. Your abstract notion of “protecting diverging opinions” runs completely independent of reality here.

The pair of posters did not offer different opinion; they try to fabricate “new” facts to suit their goal of discrediting information coming from Tesla:

DonS: “…I was told there is no more deposit upfront.”

Immediately following by:

Rlarno: “So we are to conclude that there is no more backlog for the US?", followed by all too familiar reference (you should know well from whom) to “hype”

Jolinar |
April 10, 2013

@kristjan.sinisoo
Elon and GB stated that final charging configuration for Europe will have Tesla-build Mennekes connector with improved pins to be able to handle Supercharging through it. There will be also CHAdeMO adapter, but they didn't say if included or as future option.

Brian H |
April 10, 2013

Jolinar;
George B. said CHAdeMO will be "native" for the Euro cars connector.

cablue |
April 10, 2013

Brian H: I never said it was sequential. I did not list our number. My point was that as of 4/6, they were taking deposits online, and the order was not - your quote: "... firm from day one, no reservations to cancel." As I posted, Tesla states otherwise in the email they sent us confirming our order, with the option to cancel within two weeks, and, if needed, more time would be made available.

Unless I misunderstood, that was the takeaway I got from your quote, that the order was "firm from day one, no reservation to cancel."

Brian H |
April 10, 2013

It's very brief, and doesn't really function as a reservation, at least as previously used. No "sequence numbers" are issued any more.

Someone said they weren't required to put down a $5K deposit, so maybe it's "in transition".

vgrinshpun |
April 12, 2013

Looks like estimated delivery that is shown on the ordering page for P85 models changed from 1 month earlier this week to 2 month currently. Estimated deliveries for 60kWh and 85kWh remained the same - 3 and 2 month.

This could mean that percentage of P85 reservation increased lately.

hiroshiy |
April 13, 2013

Hi, how do I find the reservation number from "MY DASHBOARD"?
Is it the number on the bottom left with # sign? Mine is #33, Signature Model RHD in Japan. I reserved one on April 1st 2013.

Brian H |
April 13, 2013

hiroshiy;
That seems possible, if you're on the same list as Hong Kong. Please update with any expected delivery information you get.

rochec |
April 13, 2013

Just got the notice that my order has been submitted to the factory and then another that it is being built!!

elguapo |
April 13, 2013

@rochec Hate to burst your bubble, but once you order, that's what it says for everyone, regardless of what is happening. My account has said that since I finalized on 3/21 and Tesla told me the other day it won't actually be built until the end of this month. I know the finalize process has changed as I saw your post on the other thread, but Tesla told me the "building your car" isn't an actual status update. It is just filler until you get a call or delivery button. It would be cool if one could actually track production in real time.

Brian H |
April 13, 2013

The inventory and parts flow gets locked in and allocated to the assembly line schedule, so it's in production in that sense.

Carl Barlev |
April 26, 2013

@vgrinshpun,

Could also mean that a large chunk of production capacity has been moved to EU deliveries...?

Evoc |
May 3, 2013

Just a new datapoint for Australia...

I have a general reservation with $6000 reservation deposit as of this week.

Number #80 on the sequence.

I have a friend with sequence in the low 60s who reserved a general production in May 2012.

Given the 38 S and 48 P from Dec 2012 it looks like there has been 7 cancellations or refunds here possibly as a result of the delayed deliveries announced earlier in the year.

Tesla is not marketed here at all and the general populace is almost completely ignorant of the brand.

I think that delivering less than 100 cars to a country is not going to be viable. I really question whether we'll see a MS here to be quite frank; but that's what it is going to need.

Some cars delivered will break the ice and I believe the cars will begin to sell themselves as awareness grows.

I remember being in a line of only 6 people when the iPhone 3G was released here and people were ignorant of it despite Apples huge presence. Nowadays an iphone release is sold out within a week and lines outside every retailer are the rule.

Those 100 cars or so are going to be crucial in launching the product here. And my suggestion to Tesla would be to insure that those cars are built neither even stricter and higher tolerances as you want these initial cars to be absolutely the best you can deliver. That's important all round but even more so for these early cars which will start the ball rolling.

Best of luck to everyone. I'm hoping I am driving one before this time next year :)

p.o.livingston |
May 10, 2013

Evoc, is it clear yet what the final cost will be for Australia?

sofaguy |
September 2, 2013

Reservation sequence number 4145 .
June 19, 2013 model x

jdonovan |
September 2, 2013

Sequence number 5459.
Model X, reserved last week.

Brian H |
September 4, 2013

So still running at about 10/day.

Shelmire |
October 5, 2013

Please update the count on this thread. Thanks

paulrhowarth |
December 10, 2013

Signature #1,010
December 10, 2013

muleferg |
December 22, 2013

I placed my order dec 18. I had 2 weeks to change my order. and I did add fog lights and color to grey. After 2 weeks then receive P#