Friday, February 15, 2019

Brexit Facts and Speculations

Facts:1. Theresa May campaigned in favour of remaining in the EU.2. The great majority of MPs campaigned in favour of remaining in the EU.3. The majority of the electorate would now vote to remain in the EU were we to have another referendum.4. There are few MPs who support a No Deal Brexit.5. Theresa May's 'Deal' does not have the support of the majority of MPs.Speculation:1. Parliament will not allow a No Deal Brexit.2. Parliament will not allow Theresa May's 'Deal'"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth." - Arthur Conan Doyle

Theresa May (and Jeremy Corbyn) were confronted with the problem of how to remain in the EU whilst minimising the backlash from the 17 million people who voted Leave. Her task was to set up a situation in which she would be forced to call a second referendum which would produce a reversal of the first result, whilst appearing to do everything possible to 'respect' the 'will of the people' as expressed in the first referendum.

She has succeeded is creating options that are impossible, leaving the improbable as the only truth standing. Article 50 will, at the last moment, be withdrawn and a People's Vote announced.Jeremy Corbyn has been in a similar position, determined to uphold the appearance of support for the electorate of Sunderland and suchlike constituencies, but keeping the escape card of a second referendum at the back of the pack of all the impossible cards that have to be played first.

Both leaders have a common goal, remaining in the EU, because they know it's worth it, and both leaders have a common goal of making it look as though it was forced upon them, and both leaders have a common goal in making it look as though it was the fault of the other party.It's that last goal that ensures the process will not be resolved until the last possible moment.

Then we will have a second referendum, remain will win.We will see which party comes out of it all worst. But that's for future speculation.