A twice-weekly syndicated newspaper column on California public affairs.

Monday, April 2, 2018

TRUMP ACTED IN HASTE ON TARIFFS, MAY REGRET AT LENGTH

CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, APRIL 17, 2018, OR THEREAFTER

BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“TRUMP ACTED IN HASTE ON TARIFFS, MAY
REGRET AT LENGTH”

By the time most folks reach 70, even very impetuous males,
they’ve realized the truth of the hallowed cliché, “act in haste, repent at
leisure.”

But apparently not President Trump. By many reports, he
announced a massive round of tariffs on foreign materials and goods like steel
and aluminum in a fit of pique, angered because his son-in-law and adviser Jared
Kushner could not get a full security clearance.

Within less than a week, there were already signs of
regret. This was prompted not only by loud criticism from some of his fellow
Republicans in Congress, but also because some other countries and federations,
most notably the European Union, began openly contemplating their own tariffs
on American goods, especially those made in “red” states that backed Trump in
the 2016 election, goods like blue jeans and bourbon.

For a businessman widely experienced in the give-and-take
of negotiating, Trump surely knew that for every action there’s a reaction. He likely
was not surprised when, for example, Canada began openly thinking about tariffs
on cars built in states Trump carried, from Nissans (Tennessee) and
Mercedes-Benzes (Alabama) to Chryslers (Michigan).

So Trump began backtracking. He started by suggesting he
might relent on tariffs affecting Canada and Mexico if a “better deal” emerges
from current talks on revising the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

But so far, there’s been no backing off prospective tariffs
against goods from China, Japan and South America, among the largest buyers of
exported California products from high tech silicon chips to movies and food
products.

Even if Europe were to target red-state industries, China
and Japan probably cannot. That’s because so much of their trade with America
is actually trade with California.

California rice, grown in the Sacramento River Valley north
of the state capital, is a staple of the Japanese diet because population
growth long ago outstripped Japan’s ability to grow enough on its own. China is
the largest foreign market for American films, mostly produced by
California-headquartered firms, even if some of those companies are foreign
owned. And much of Asia depends on computer chips developed in the Silicon
Valley. Wine and nut exports to China are also substantial.

If Trump thought retaliation against his proposed tariffs
would hurt California, he didn’t say so. But given the context of his seeming
vendetta against the Golden State because it has defied him on several fronts,
chances are he would not mind that. Of course, if Central Valley farms begin to
suffer and fallow fields and orchards because tariffs are cutting down the
exports that consume almost half their output, it just might harm the electoral
prospects of GOP congressmen like Jeff Denham, Devin Nunes and David Valadao,
who have toed almost the full Trump line for the last 16 months.

And California farmers are expecting big trouble if Trump
insists on the tariffs. They now take in more than $21 billion from foreign
markets, with California almonds, for example, dominating nut sales almost
everywhere. California vintners also would suffer. Wheat growers immediately
protested the tariffs, and some large grain farmers were major Trump financial
backers in 2016.

California farms account for much of the world’s crop of
table grapes, olive oil, raisins, figs, artichokes, dates, kiwis and canned,
pitted fruits like peaches, plums and apricots. China imposed 25 and 15 percent
tariffs on some of those items, including grapes, almonds and walnuts.

Put a serious crimp in the China trade, as the nascent
tariff war could do, and rather than helping decrease America’s trade deficit,
the new levies could worsen it.

So if he ever reflects on his insistence on tariffs – by
all reports, against the advice of his top economists – Trump may come to
regret it.

But even though he frequently denies saying things days
after they were videoed and recorded, he won’t be able to label the
consequences of tariffs as fake news. Rather those consequences could include a
new recession, loss of millions of American jobs and assured electoral defeat
in 2020.

The bottom line: Trump acted in haste on the tariffs and
unless he relents soon, he could regret it the rest of his life. So might a lot
of other people.

-30-
Email Thomas Elias at
tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough, The Most Promising
Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It" is now
available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net

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About Me

Thomas Elias writes the syndicated California Focus column, appearing twice weekly in 88 newspapers around California, with circulation over 2.2 million.
He has won numerous awards from organizations like the National Headliners Club, the California Newspaper Publishers Association, the Los Angeles Press Club, and the California Taxpayers Association. He has been nominated three times for the Pulitzer Prize in distinguished commentary.
Elias is the author of two books, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government's Campaign to Squelch It" (now in its third edition; also published in Japanese and recently optioned for a television movie) and "The Simpson Trial in Black and White," co-authored with the late Dennis Schatzman.