000
FXUS64 KLZK 092316
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
516 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions, along with a light southeasterly near surface flow
will prevail during this period.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 233 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016)
Short term...tonight through Sunday
Arctic high pressure settled in over the area last night bringing
the coldest air of the season to many areas. Afternoon temperatures
have only risen into the 30s across the state even with generally
sunny skies.
The models remain in decent enough agreement this afternoon that a
blend of solutions is preferred. The center of the arctic high is
over eastern Arkansas at this time but expected to move eastward
tonight. Another cold night is expected across the area with most
areas dropping into the upper teens and 20s by morning. South to
southeast winds return on the backside of the departing high on
Saturday with highs expected to reach back into the 40s.
Broad cyclonic flow will continue on Sunday with another piece of
energy kicking out of the Rockies. Lee side cyclogenesis will
initiate with the surface low passing well to the north of the area
Sunday. Associated cold front will be over NW Arkansas by the of the
period with enough moisture being pulled back in for precipitation
chances returning to the forecast. Temperatures are expected to
modify enough that only liquid precipitation is expected at this
time.
Long Term...Sunday night through Friday
A frontal boundary will be pushing through the state Sunday night
and into the early morning hours Monday. This looks to be a
widespread precipitation event, but did not go crazy on rain chances
just yet as the best lift and dynamics will be north of Arkansas.
Did include some likely PoPs in the northeast and southeastern parts
of the forecast area as that is where the best chances will be.
Future updates will likely see rain chances increase, but 40-60 PoPs
for now seems reasonable.
Beyond Monday, the models diverge a little with respect to precip
chances. Most guidance seems to be in agreement with a semi-zonal
flow pattern over much of the US, with broad but deep trouging
between the Great Lakes and the Hudson Bay areas. But the details in
what happens at the surface over Arkansas are not well agreed upon.
The frontal boundary from Sun night/Mon looks to stall out to the
south of Arkansas beneath zonal flow aloft. And several weak upper
level impulses will move through giving continued small
precipitation chances. The question is which model is right with
respect to timing and placement of those impulses and the associate
precip. The GFS has widespread precip along the I-70 corridor from
CO to MO, and stretching into Arkansas from the north, on Wednesday.
The ECMWF is more along the I-80 corridor of NE and IA, with no
precip in Arkansas.
Cold air will filter into Arkansas behind the aforementioned frontal
boundary, cooling high temperatures back into the 30s and 40s by
Wed. Left some slight rain chances in the forecast for Wed to
account for the possibility of rain, but this is a low confidence
forecast at this point. Otherwise, the forecast will be dry during
the long term.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99