Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding International Bonds

Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding International Bonds

Do you think it was a good idea for Vanguard to add International Bonds to their Target Retirement Funds so soon?

Taylor was kind enough to send me information from Vanguard regarding this, but I’m still not keen on this idea.

Grant it, much of the more advanced theories on these boards goes way over my head, but my gut tells me that it is not a good direction to go in or at the very least to wait until these funds prove themselves.

Am I wrong for thinking this way and not trust the experts at Vanguard?

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 11:32 am

by Beagler

Would Mr. Bogle have added international bonds to the TR series?

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 12:05 pm

by iceport

Beagler wrote:Would Mr. Bogle have added international bonds to the TR series?

Just out of curiosity, if you adamantly reject one of Mr. Bogle's signature recommendations (i.e. total market investing), why would that matter to you?

--Pete

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:51 pm

by CP4641

In a Jason Zweig article "The Rip Van Winkle Portfolio" published in the March 2004 issue of Money Magazine Mr. Bogle proposes this tax sheltered portfolio:

Mr. Bogle's portfolio is kind of close to the Target 2015 portfolio (if frozen) once international bonds are included.

The new international bond index fund along with the Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities fund allows one to implement Mr. Bogle's Rip Van Winkle Portfolio entirely with index funds.

-CP

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 8:51 pm

by Beagler

petrico wrote:

Beagler wrote:Would Mr. Bogle have added international bonds to the TR series?

Just out of curiosity....

Your curiosity is appreciated.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 9:52 pm

by iceport

stemikger wrote:Do you think it was a good idea for Vanguard to add International Bonds to their Target Retirement Funds so soon?

Taylor was kind enough to send me information from Vanguard regarding this, but I’m still not keen on this idea.

Grant it, much of the more advanced theories on these boards goes way over my head, but my gut tells me that it is not a good direction to go in or at the very least to wait until these funds prove themselves.

Am I wrong for thinking this way and not trust the experts at Vanguard?

stemikger,

I think Rick Ferri nailed it with this assessment:

Rick Ferri wrote:The change is irrelevant and insignificant (although does add a touch of cost). This addition is just a gimmick to draw attention to the offering and get guaranteed seed capital for the fund. The change will make no difference in return over the long-term whatsoever.

I held an international bond fund for many years, and it behaved very much like my other bonds. Oh, and the funds I used were unhedged. Vanguard's hedged bond fund should be even more sedate than an unhedged version. At 20% of fixed income, I really think it's a non-issue for the target retirement funds. (But it's a huge help for the new niche fund offering to have an instant asset base.)

--Pete

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 7:23 am

by trasmuss

Isn't anyone concerned that 13% of the fund (top holding) is in Russian bonds? I remember getting burned with Fidelity Balanced fund because of the Mexican bonds it held.

Regarding Mr. Bogle it may be importat to remember that he doesn't object to tactical asset allocation (at least regarding percentage allocation to stocks/bonds). While he has embraced total market investing (including total bond) he is currently using corporate bond funds to avoid treasuries. He apparently is feeling that the market does not always have it right. It therefore isn't possible to know his current feelings on international bonds or whether Vanguard should include them in the target funds.

Vanguard also changes with time. It used to be they recommended avoiding Total Bond in their financial plans because they didn't like the MBS portion. They also recommended 50% actively managed and 50% index funds. They also recommended 20% international. One could say that they improve things as they get more information. Or one could say that you can't take their advice too seriously since it can change.

In many cases "fine tuning" may make us feel more diversified or that we will be safer in a downturn or that we will outperform the market; whether it will or not remains to be seen.

Tom

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 9:49 am

by stemikger

If Mr. Bogle doesn't recommend international investing, I doubt he would advise to invest in international bonds.

In Commonsense On Mutual Funds Mr. Bogle devotes a lengthy chapter on why international investing is not necessary and he does not particularly like it.

Over the years, he seems to have been more diplomatic and saying he is not the person to ask about international. However, the fact that he does not own any speaks volumes. The money he has saved for his Grandchildren's future over the years is placed in the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund.

It seems many of Vanguard’s recent moves have been for marketing purposes. In many respects they seem to have strayed a bit from John Bogle’s message of simplicity.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 10:00 am

by sscritic

Beagler wrote:Would Mr. Bogle have added international bonds to the TR series?

Out of curiosity (the phrase of the day), why should I care what Mr. Bogle would have done in a parallel universe if an international bond fund or, for that matter, Target Retirement funds had been in existence during the period during which he was the head of Vanguard?

How many parallel universes do you invest in?

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 10:17 am

by NYBoglehead

trasmuss wrote:Isn't anyone concerned that 13% of the fund (top holding) is in Russian bonds? I remember getting burned with Fidelity Balanced fund because of the Mexican bonds it held.

Regarding Mr. Bogle it may be importat to remember that he doesn't object to tactical asset allocation (at least regarding percentage allocation to stocks/bonds). While he has embraced total market investing (including total bond) he is currently using corporate bond funds to avoid treasuries. He apparently is feeling that the market does not always have it right. It therefore isn't possible to know his current feelings on international bonds or whether Vanguard should include them in the target funds.

Vanguard also changes with time. It used to be they recommended avoiding Total Bond in their financial plans because they didn't like the MBS portion. They also recommended 50% actively managed and 50% index funds. They also recommended 20% international. One could say that they improve things as they get more information. Or one could say that you can't take their advice too seriously since it can change.

In many cases "fine tuning" may make us feel more diversified or that we will be safer in a downturn or that we will outperform the market; whether it will or not remains to be seen.

Tom

I didn't see what the allocation to the Total International Bond Index would be but I wouldn't be too worried about it. Assuming its 25% of the fund, the 13% of Russian bonds would take up 3.25% of the total fund.

That's IF a fund had 25% of its total holdings in TIBM. I think most of the proposals are much less than that.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:20 am

by Beagler

sscritic wrote:
Out of curiosity..., why should I care what Mr. Bogle would have done in a parallel universe if an international bond fund or, for that matter, Target Retirement funds had been in existence during the period during which he was the head of Vanguard?

Odd question to post on a board named in his honor. Would you suggest that hyperlinks to videos, interviews and other media featuring Mr. Bogle be kept off the board, or that his opinions carry no merit (axiomatic that no one agrees with everything every expert opines)?

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:25 am

by Beagler

trasmuss wrote:
Regarding Mr. Bogle ... It therefore isn't possible to know his current feelings on international bonds or whether Vanguard should include them in the target funds.

Isn't possible? If asked in an interview he wouldn't express an opinion? Having heard him speak in person, and seen many t.v. interviews, he's not one to clam up when asked about investing.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:22 pm

by iceport

NYBoglehead wrote:

trasmuss wrote:Isn't anyone concerned that 13% of the fund (top holding) is in Russian bonds? I remember getting burned with Fidelity Balanced fund because of the Mexican bonds it held.

<snip>

I didn't see what the allocation to the Total International Bond Index would be but I wouldn't be too worried about it. Assuming its 25% of the fund, the 13% of Russian bonds would take up 3.25% of the total fund.

That's IF a fund had 25% of its total holdings in TIBM. I think most of the proposals are much less than that.

Mr. Bogle's portfolio is kind of close to the Target 2015 portfolio (if frozen) once international bonds are included.

The new international bond index fund along with the Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities fund allows one to implement Mr. Bogle's Rip Van Winkle Portfolio entirely with index funds.

The Pimco Foreign Bond D is unhedged (<== Nope! It's hedged.) and Vanguard's new international bond is hedged so no you can't replicate the "Rip Van Winkle Portfolio" with it.

The hedged fund Vanguard is introducing will behave more like Total Bond Market while the Pimco fund will have almost 3x the volatility because of the currency effects. The distinction is important and unless people understand the difference most of the comments just confuse the issue.

One thing that is different is the Vanguard fund will be strongly hedged and the Pimco fund will have a weaker hedge and still be more volatile, but not as much as unhedged.

Paul

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:31 am

by iceport

stratton wrote:The Pimco Foreign Bond D is unhedged and Vanguard's new international bond is hedged so no you can't replicate the "Rip Van Winkle Portfolio" with it.

The hedged fund Vanguard is introducing will behave more like Total Bond Market while the Pimco fund will have almost 3x the volatility because of the currency effects. The distinction is important and unless people understand the difference most of the comments just confuse the issue.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

trasmuss wrote:Isn't anyone concerned that 13% of the fund (top holding) is in Russian bonds? I remember getting burned with Fidelity Balanced fund because of the Mexican bonds it held.

Tom

Could I have a cite on that 13%? In an international bond fund, that sounds like an international Emerging Market Bond fund?

AFAIK Russia is not in developed market bond indices?

At least Russia has oil. It has a surprisingly good credit rating.

(The Fidelity trick, Alliance did it too, was in 'North American Government Securities' fund-- they juiced the yield on a boring old Treasury Bond fund by holding Mexican bonds, which then blew up. Caveat emptor).

THIS VG international bond fund (listed in Dublin) has no Russian bonds as far as I can see.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding International Bo

stemikger wrote:Do you think it was a good idea for Vanguard to add International Bonds to their Target Retirement Funds so soon?

Taylor was kind enough to send me information from Vanguard regarding this, but I’m still not keen on this idea.

Grant it, much of the more advanced theories on these boards goes way over my head, but my gut tells me that it is not a good direction to go in or at the very least to wait until these funds prove themselves.

Am I wrong for thinking this way and not trust the experts at Vanguard?

Vanguard is measured. They have published research on the merits of international fixed income, for risk/reward (portfolio efficiency).

As correlations have converged over the years, I doubt the efficiency gains in the future will be as large in the past.

It's not something to worry about, 5% say in international developed country bonds.

To my mind, it's also not particularly attractive-- nobody who is not high credit risk has attractive bond yields: Germany, UK, Canada are all about US Treasury levels. Japan is much lower.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:59 am

by dumbmoney

Valuethinker wrote:

trasmuss wrote:Isn't anyone concerned that 13% of the fund (top holding) is in Russian bonds? I remember getting burned with Fidelity Balanced fund because of the Mexican bonds it held.

Could I have a cite on that 13%? In an international bond fund, that sounds like an international Emerging Market Bond fund?

Yeah, that can't be right. The top holding is surely Japan government bonds, probably right at the cap of 20%.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:10 am

by stratton

petrico wrote:

stratton wrote:The Pimco Foreign Bond D is unhedged and Vanguard's new international bond is hedged so no you can't replicate the "Rip Van Winkle Portfolio" with it.

The hedged fund Vanguard is introducing will behave more like Total Bond Market while the Pimco fund will have almost 3x the volatility because of the currency effects. The distinction is important and unless people understand the difference most of the comments just confuse the issue.

Looks like I made a mistake. I would have sworn the pimco fund was unhedged.

Paul

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding International Bo

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 5:32 am

by Valuethinker

petrico wrote:

stratton wrote:The Pimco Foreign Bond D is unhedged and Vanguard's new international bond is hedged so no you can't replicate the "Rip Van Winkle Portfolio" with it.

The hedged fund Vanguard is introducing will behave more like Total Bond Market while the Pimco fund will have almost 3x the volatility because of the currency effects. The distinction is important and unless people understand the difference most of the comments just confuse the issue.

April 1994. Oh boy. Immaculate timing. Right as the US Treasury market, and global bond markets, crashed (they were probably less correlated then-- Europe still coming out of recession, Japan still realizing it was never going to come out).

I don't think this new VG fund is dangerous. Currency hedged, it will produce returns close to that of US Treasury bonds. Sometimes less (Japanese government bonds pay 0.5% yield) sometimes more.

Diversifying? At the scale VG can invest in, and low cost, it probably is. For the average US individual investor? A small benefit.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 5:33 am

by Valuethinker

sscritic wrote:

Beagler wrote:Would Mr. Bogle have added international bonds to the TR series?

Out of curiosity (the phrase of the day), why should I care what Mr. Bogle would have done in a parallel universe if an international bond fund or, for that matter, Target Retirement funds had been in existence during the period during which he was the head of Vanguard?

How many parallel universes do you invest in?

'alternate states of the world' in finance speak .

Thinking Philip Pulman and 'His Dark Materials' trilogy, which hangs around the existence of parallel universes: Lyra Acquavella in hers, and Will in ours.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 5:34 am

by Valuethinker

archbish99 wrote:

sscritic wrote:How many parallel universes do you invest in?

I believe in diversification, so I invest in all of them, at market weight.

There are quite a few parallel universes where they have abolished money (or never invented it). Perfect communism.

My usual nightmare one is Philip K Dick (Man in the High Castle) where the Nazis and Japanese carved up North America into spheres of influence/ occupation.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding International Bo

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 6:22 am

by trasmuss

Dumbmoney, sorry I can't provide a source for the 13% in Russian bonds. I only remember reading it and being astounded. I could be wrong and the source where I read it could also be wrong.

At this point none of us have to make any decisions based on the new fund. As soon as Vanguard releases it I do plan to review its prospectus and holdings. Even though it will be only 20% of bonds in Target Retirement that could still be 10% or more of a portfolio for someone who has 50% or more in fixed income. To me that is still a pretty good chunk and I would want to at least be aware of what they can invest in and at what percent. The fact that it is a "government" bond fund gives me no confidence with the current national news (Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Spain, etc.).

Unless Vanguard offers an Admiral version of Life Strategy or Target Retirement it won't really affect me since I will go with the individual funds for expense savings. And if they do offer lower expense versions I will always have the option of Life Strategy as an alternative to Target Retirement.

If you look at the composition of the Managed Payout funds you will see that Vanguard does some things that seem to vary from total market investing. They used corporate bonds, for example, instead of Total Bond. And they use commodities and a market neutral fund. And the equity allocation is very high. To me this is an indication that one must always review Vanguard's latest practices (yes, they are experts but they do change their views periodically).

Tom

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding International Bo

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 10:08 am

by Valuethinker

trasmuss wrote:Dumbmoney, sorry I can't provide a source for the 13% in Russian bonds. I only remember reading it and being astounded. I could be wrong and the source where I read it could also be wrong.

At this point none of us have to make any decisions based on the new fund. As soon as Vanguard releases it I do plan to review its prospectus and holdings. Even though it will be only 20% of bonds in Target Retirement that could still be 10% or more of a portfolio for someone who has 50% or more in fixed income. To me that is still a pretty good chunk and I would want to at least be aware of what they can invest in and at what percent. The fact that it is a "government" bond fund gives me no confidence with the current national news (Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Spain, etc.).

Unless Vanguard offers an Admiral version of Life Strategy or Target Retirement it won't really affect me since I will go with the individual funds for expense savings. And if they do offer lower expense versions I will always have the option of Life Strategy as an alternative to Target Retirement.

If you look at the composition of the Managed Payout funds you will see that Vanguard does some things that seem to vary from total market investing. They used corporate bonds, for example, instead of Total Bond. And they use commodities and a market neutral fund. And the equity allocation is very high. To me this is an indication that one must always review Vanguard's latest practices (yes, they are experts but they do change their views periodically).

Tom

Tom

I am pretty sure you are mistaken re 13%.

The fund will only hold investment grade bonds-- no Greece (believe it or not, people made a lot of money on Greek government bonds last year-- the post default bonds rallied). No Cyprus.

Max is 20% in any one country. So that will be Japan. Italy will be big, but it is inconceivable Eurozone would allow an Italian default-- they'd exit the Euro first. Spain was in good fiscal shape pre crash so not huge. Note Irish bonds have rallied.

Your big markets will be UK, Germany, Italy, Japan, some Australian and Canadian. Netherlands. France. Of those, Japan is a constant issue (but they borrow in their own currency, some kind of inflation shock is more likely than a default). France might the next one to worry about, but again it's curtains for the Eurozone if that happens.

I question the actual portfolio gains from such investments, but I think you are pretty OK on the credit risk. The currency risk ie breakup of the Euro, is hedged (the bonds of the exit countries would drop and interest rates would rise).

I don't think this is a highly dangerous move by Vanguard.

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds adding Internaitonal Bo

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 10:49 am

by Random Musings

stemikger wrote:If Mr. Bogle doesn't recommend international investing, I doubt he would advise to invest in international bonds.

I starting to think we need a sticky to remind posters that Mr. Bogle (looking at a more recent thoughts) recommends diversification in both international stocks and bonds.

As of January •, 2013, the target index for the Vanguard Total International Bond Fund held a substantial percentage of its assets in bonds of issuers located in just a handful of countries, as shown in the following table

Japan

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

Canada

Spain

There is also a listing of holiday periods in national markets. Here are the lists:

Regular Holidays. For each country in which Vanguard Total International Bond ETF invests, the calendar year 2012 market holidays are as follows: (to be included with 485(b) filing):

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Bermuda

Brazil

Bulgaria

Canada

Chile

China

Croatia

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hong Kong

Hungary

India

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Jersey ChanIsle

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malaysia

Malta

Mexico

Morocco

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Philippines

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Russia

South Africa

South Korea

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Slovakia

Slovenia

Spain

Supranational

Sweden

Switzerland

Taiwan

Thailand

Tunisia

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

From Preliminary Prospectus (January 17, 2012) For each country in which Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF invests, the calendar year 2012 market holidays are as follows: (to be included with 485(b) filing):

Looks like I made a mistake. I would have sworn the pimco fund was unhedged.

Paul

Actually, I'm not completely convinced you made a mistake. I remember rooting around the PIMCO site a few years ago in search of the answer, and finding nothing conclusive (except that PIMCO chose some confusing fund names). I was hoping you'd have something more definitive than Morningstar's reporting on the current versions of the funds.