Short-Term Energy Outlook July 7, 2010

Published: July 7, 2010

EIA released its U.S. monthly projections through December 2011. Highlights for this month's Outlook include:

EIA projects that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price, which ended June near $76 per barrel, will average $79 per barrel over the second half of 2010 and $83 per barrel in 2011. This forecast is unchanged from last month's Outlook.

EIA expects that regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices will average $2.80 per gallon during this summer's driving season (the period between April 1 and September 30), up from $2.44 per gallon last summer. The summer gasoline price forecast is up only slightly ($0.01) from last month's Outlook, but $0.12 per gallon lower than we had forecast in April, when oil prices were significantly higher.

This Outlook includes EIA's revised estimates of reductions in production resulting from the 6-month deepwater drilling moratorium announced by Secretary of the Interior Salazar on May 27. The reductions in crude oil production resulting from the moratorium are estimated to average about 31,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in the fourth quarter of 2010 (compared with an estimated 26,000 bbl/d in last month's Outlook) and about 82,000 bbl/d in 2011 (up from 70,000 bbl/d). EIA will continue to refine its estimated moratorium impacts as additional information becomes available.

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $4.70 per million Btu (MMBtu) this year, a $0.75-per-MMBtu increase over the 2009 average and $0.22 per MMBtu higher than in last month's Outlook. Most of the increase in the price forecast occurs in the third quarter of this year, due to projections of increased hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico this season, which pushed spot prices higher. EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $5.17 per MMBtu in 2011, up $0.11 per MMBtu from last month's Outlook.

The annual average residential electricity price changes only moderately over the forecast period, averaging 11.6 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in 2010, up slightly from 11.5 cents per kWh in 2009, and rising to 12 cents per kWh in 2011.

Estimated U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels, which declined by 7.0 percent in 2009, are expected to increase by 3.2 percent and 1.6 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively, as economic growth spurs higher energy consumption.

To see details of this forecast update, go to the following World Wide Web site on the Internet: