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November 7, 2008 Meeting - Sea Level Rise Task Force

Meeting Purposes:

Task force review of steering committee recommendations for assumptions of sea level rise and coastal inundation in New York

Present task force with information on other adaptation planning efforts in New York

Introduce workgroup chairs to task force and hear progress to date on tasks

Task force review of revised timeline

Task force approval of steering committee recommendations and next steps

Task Force Actions

Review and approval of revised task force framework and timeline

The task force discussed the timeline and outreach efforts.

There will be two major participation and outreach phases. The first will be a series of public scoping sessions in 3-5 regions modeled after the DEC's Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) scoping sessions to get public/stakeholder input on issues to be addressed by the task force. The second phase, in early fall, will be to get public/stakeholder input on the draft recommendations and report.

Work group chairs should incorporate stakeholder input into their efforts.

Adam Freed will share information with the group on what other cities have done to communicate climate change.

Approval of steering committee recommendations

The following documents were approved by the Task Force:

Recommendations for assumptions of sea level rise and coastal inundation in New York including the incorporation of storm surge and flood recurrence intervals based on projections of higher sea level (not including changes in frequency or intensity of storms).

The next task force meeting will be held in late January or early February.

Steering committee recommendations for assumptions of sea level rise and coastal inundation in New York - Alan Belensz, DEC and Fred Anders, DOS

On Sept. 15th the Steering Committee heard presentations on estimations and implications for sea level rise from Drs. Vivian Gornitz and Cynthia Rosenzweig of the Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR), and Dr. Norbert Psuty, professor of geological sciences at Rutgers University. Subsequent discussions on sea level rise projections were held with representatives from CCSR, the City of New York Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, and with representatives from other coastal states.

Locally -- subsidence of coastal lands & changes in ocean surface elevation primarily due to water currents and air pressure (wind)

Each of the components of sea level rise has a qualitative level of uncertainty. Local land subsidence and global thermal expansion estimates have relatively more certainty; meltwater is the least certain, local surface elevation in-between

The uncertainty associated with sea level rise estimates increase as the time length of the estimates increase

CCSR is currently developing estimates of sea level rise for New York City. A New York State climate change adaptation study, recently funded by NYSERDA , will use CCSR expertise to refine these estimates for all coastal New York and the Hudson River north to the Federal Dam in Troy. For the near-term work of the NYS SLRTF and its working groups, the Steering Committee recommends utilization of the following draft CCSR NYC sea level rise estimates:

2 Preliminary CCSR analyses suggest corrections for subsidence and local ocean elevation along the shoreline of Long Island and Westchester County will differ from estimates for NYC SLR by less than 1-2 inches per century. Determination of corrections for the Hudson River Valley coastline will require additional scientific study.

Workgroups will determine which available SLR estimates are most appropriate for use. For example, adaptation planning efforts that consider long-lived projects with high capital costs, such as constructing a new building or retrofitting a tunnel or bridge, may find the High-End scenarios most useful

The SLRTF should consider establishing a protocol for routinely re-evaluating sea level rise estimates to incorporate the latest scientific information

The NYSERDA study will evaluate how climate change may alter the frequency of coastal storm flood recurrence levels for coastal New York

The NYS SLRTF, NYC Adaptation Task Force, NYSERDA, and the Rising Waters project have committed to collaborating to make sure that we present a comprehensive and consistent message to the public on the amount and potential effects of sea level rise and the development of recommendations to respond.