The United States will likely experience another year of roughly 2 percent GDP growth. Even mild fiscal tightening could cost us more than a percentage point of that GDP. That means we are down to one percent GDP growth.

And earnings growth? Roughly 5 percent is Citi's estimate, with even a mild fiscal tightening.

And if we go over the fiscal cliff? Earnings could decline by 10 percent. GDP could drop to NEGATIVE 1.2 percent.