Thursday, October 11, 2012

A new poll of 1,594 Ohio voters who indicated that they were registered to vote in the upcoming presidential election finds that the race is very close in the Buckeye state. Among all of the likely voters, 1,313 of the poll's participants, Romney is leading with 45.9 percent of the people saying that they'd vote for him, compared to the 45.1 percent favoring Obama. A full 9 percent said that they'd vote for another candidate. However, when compared to the individuals who are registered to vote on Election Day, Obama takes the lead with 46.3 percent of the votes, while Romney has just 44.8 percent. Those who would vote for a third-party candidate came in at 8.9 percent of the poll's participants. Since the convention, this is the first time that Romney has held a lead among Ohio voters.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing between October 6 and 10, 2012. The survey asked participants a series of 12 questions including their party affiliation, gender, age, race, religion, whether or not they approve of President Obama's performance over the past four years, which candidate they would most trust with $1 million, if the United States is headed in the right direction. Interestingly, more people disapprove of Obama's job performance with 49 disapproving and only 42 percent approving while 9 percent were not sure. As for the direction in which the United States is heading, 49 percent said that it's heading in the wrong direction while 39 said that the United States is on the right track. The other 12 percent weren't sure.

Of those surveyed, the party affiliations were almost equally represented wiht 36.4 percent being Democrat, 30.5 percent Republican and 33.1 percent "other." By race, 80 percent were white, 13 percent African American and 7 percent other minorities.

Executive Summary

From October 6th through October 10th,
Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, conducted a survey of 1,594
registered voters in the Ohio, of which 1,313 indicated they would likely vote. The questions covered the presidential and
senate elections, among others. The poll
has a margin of error of about 2.7%. A
full list of questions is given on page 5.

Overall, among just likely voters, Romney leads Obama by a 45.9%
to 45.1% margin. When looking at the
entire registered voter population, Obama holds the advantage by 46.3% to 44.8%. The following page contains a time series of
the presidential race since the beginning of September. This is the first time since the convention
bounce that Romney has held the lead.

Summary Results

Party

Percent of total

Democrat

36.4%

Other

33.1%

Republican

30.5%

Race

White

80.1%

African American

13.3%

Other

6.6%

Religious affiliation

Protestant/Other Christian

52.1%

Catholic

22.6%

Not affiliated

18.0%

Muslim

4.5%

Jewish

2.8%

Age group

18-29

13.1%

30-49

39.6%

50-64

30.4%

65+

16.9%

Gender

Men

48.6%

Female

51.4%

President

Romney

45.9%

Obama

45.1%

Other

9.0%

Approve of Obama's job performance?

Disapprove

48.8%

Approve

41.4%

Other

9.8%

U.S. headed in right direction?

Wrong

48.9%

Right

38.9%

Other

12.2%

Gov. Kasich's job performance?

Positive

41.7%

Negative

31.5%

Other

26.7%

Survey Questions

1. Are you registered to vote? (Yes, No)

2. How likely are you to vote in this year’s
presidential elections? (Very likely, somewhat likely, Not likely)

3.
In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a
member of? (Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party)

I am Doug Kaplan the founder and president of Gravis Marketing, Gravis is a political polling and advertising firm. I help campaigns get their message out using telephone, internet, print and micro targeting.

I usually post pictures of business related things or of my son Daniel, he is the apple of my eye. We like to travel, go to theme parks and have fun!

My other passion is my business, Gravis Marketing I am a political junkie and am blessed to have the opportunity to work in the political arena.