tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62585178557978263952018-05-17T00:56:53.257-07:00TEOTWAWKI: Life in Interesting TimesMay you live in interesting times! -- Ancient Chinese CurseDave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-51355350181991355542018-04-08T17:40:00.000-07:002018-04-08T17:40:22.244-07:00Gypsy Rules for Survival<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cro7Q-CUkqQ/VWQTuLhUs9I/AAAAAAAABr0/1D10CRk9C2I/s1600/Gypsy%2BCamp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="451" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cro7Q-CUkqQ/VWQTuLhUs9I/AAAAAAAABr0/1D10CRk9C2I/s640/Gypsy%2BCamp.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px;"><b>Cruising Live-Aboards</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>&nbsp;The sky became their canopy</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>The earth became their throne</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>And as their raiment ran to rags</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>They thought it nothing wrong</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>For earth and sky are robe enough</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>When you sing the Gypsy Song.</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- From&nbsp;<u>Beggars to God</u>&nbsp;by Bob Franke</b></i></span></div><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Gypsy Rules for the Survival</b></span><br /><br />The term&nbsp;<i>Gypsy&nbsp;</i>- our outsider's name for the&nbsp;<i>Romani&nbsp;</i>peoples - stirs in settled folk a feeling of nostalgia and sometimes unease. Nostalgia for their own, lost, nomadic past, whether real or imagined. Unease from xenophobia - fear of the stranger. As a consequence, the Rom have had to navigate many hostile centuries, yet largely kept their identity and cultures intact.<br /><br />Live-aboards and shanty dwellers have much in common with them, to the point that we often share the Gypsy moniker. We too are mobile among those who would prefer to see us settled down. We too often have more in common among ourselves than with those ashore. We too live along a fringe; in the cracks, as it were.<br /><br />The following Gypsy tips, or rules for survival/thrival appeared in a&nbsp;<a href="http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2013/04/survival-tips-from-gypsies.html" target="_blank">post by Ugo Bardi</a>, plus a few gleaned elsewhere. I'll start with the bare list, which I've paraphrased, generalized, rearranged and loosely grouped in triads, then take them one by one. They're presented as 'rules', but consider them advice...<br /><br /><br /><b>Be yourself.</b><br /><b>Cultivate a free spirit.</b><br /><b>Family First.</b><br /><b><br /></b><b>Protect your privacy.</b><br /><b>Blow smoke.</b><br /><b>Never stand and fight.</b><br /><br /><b>Stay mobile.</b><br /><b>Live light, travel light.</b><br /><b>Seize opportunity.</b><br /><br /><b>Cultivate know-how.</b><br /><b>Minimize overheads.</b><br /><b>Waste not.</b><br /><br /><br /><b>*****</b><br /><br /><br />Okay... let's unpack 'em a bit:<br /><br /><b>Be Yourself</b><br /><br />BE yourself! Don't yield to conformity. Homogeneity. The pressure to be like everyone else. To blend in. You are unique in all the world. In all the Universe. Don't trade that away for love nor money!<br /><br />To do so is to impoverish yourself and the world itself.<br /><br /><br /><b>Cultivate a Free Spirit</b><br /><br />Dance, sing, celebrate, make love! Never lose sight of the joy of living.<br /><br />It's what makes it all worthwhile. What makes living more than mere survival.<br /><br /><br /><b>Family First</b><br /><br />Your family - be it your partner, your children, your kin or your tribe - are your first priority. Your family is your strength and well-being.<br /><br />Invest yourself in them and theirs.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Protect your Privacy</b><br /><br />Lots of folks are curious about how we live. But be cagey about what you tell whom. Not all of those interested are your friends. Detail can be used against you as gossip, rumor or as a pretext for official action.<br /><br />Loose lips sink ships!<br /><br /><br /><b>Blow Smoke</b><br /><br />Mis-direction and mis-representation have their place, especially when dealing with officialdom. We want to&nbsp;<i>appear&nbsp;</i>as though we fit within the boxes on their forms, whether or not we do. We want to&nbsp;<i>appear&nbsp;</i>more settled and 'legit' than in fact we are.<br /><br />Smoke and mirrors, my friends.<br /><br /><br /><b>Never Stand and Fight</b><br /><br /><i>When in danger, when in doubt, hoist your sails and bugger out!&nbsp; - Tristan Jones</i><br /><br />Those dedicated to keeping freedom freedom-free tend to have the upper hand. To fight them is at best a full time job. At worst a losing proposition.<br /><br />This is not to say that one shouldn't give due process a chance. But standing on principle come-what-may is a good way to lose one's home and possibly more.<br /><br />Consider moving along&nbsp;<i>before&nbsp;</i>push comes to shove.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Stay Mobile</b><br /><br />Mobility has us ready to roll on a moment's notice. Extends our range of options and access to resources. Keeps us fresh in outlook. With mobility, we are not bound to the misfortunes of one place. Nor must we suffer a bad neighbor.<br /><br />If not mobile, we are sitting ducks.<br /><br /><br /><b>Live Light, Travel Light</b><br /><br /><i>Don't you carry nuthin' that might be a load. Ease on down, ease on down the road.</i>&nbsp;-&nbsp;<u><i>The Wiz</i></u><br /><br />To live and travel lightly keeps one focused on essentials. This good advice has been passed on from the most ancient of Wise Ones to the most successful of present-day sailors.<br /><br />Take what you need and leave the rest.<br /><br /><br /><b>Seize Opportunity</b><br /><b><br /></b>Make the most of good fortune. Recognize the Opportune Moment. Act decisively when a windfall comes your way.<br /><br />Strike while the iron is hot!<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Cultivate Know-How</b><br /><br />DIY maintains your independence. Knowledge is portable, cannot be taken from you and makes you intrinsically valuable to others. What you can do is stock-in-trade.<br /><br /><br /><b>Minimize Overheads</b><br /><br />Overheads eat away at our substance. While we can never eliminate them entirely, we&nbsp;<i>can&nbsp;</i>keep them low.<br /><br />The lower our overheads, the greater the return on any investment. The greater our freedom.<br /><br />A penny saved is a penny earned.<br /><br /><br /><b>Waste Not</b><br /><br />We want to make full use of what we've acquired at cost. We often want to make full use of what others have neglected or abandoned.<br /><br />Recycle, reuse, repurpose.<br /><br />Thrifty does it...<br /><br /><br /><b>*****</b><br /><br /><br />So there you have 'em. Rules for the Road from those who've been traveling a long time gone.<br /><br />Like most advice of this nature, they're for your consideration. Take 'em or leave 'em. Adapt them to your unique situation. Add to them from any source you deem fit...<br /><br />And ease on down the Road.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />PS. Here are the original rules from Ugo Bardi's post,&nbsp;<a href="http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2013/04/survival-tips-from-gypsies.html" target="_blank">Survival Tips from the Gypsies</a>, in order presented:<br /><ol><li><b>In battle, the best strategy is flight.</b></li><li><b>Don't carry and don't use weapons</b>.</li><li><b>Cherish your mobility.</b></li><li><b><b>Travel light in life</b>.</b></li><li><b><b>Cultivate creative obfuscation</b>.</b></li><li><b><b>A man's family is his refuge</b>.</b></li><li><b>What you learned to do yourself, can never be stolen.</b></li><li><b><b><b>Catch the occasion when you see it</b>.&nbsp;</b>&nbsp;</b></li><li><b><b>Be jealous of your identity</b>.</b></li><li><b><b>Be a free spirit</b>.</b></li></ol><i>Note:&nbsp; I skipped number two in the preceding post. Definitely a point to consider seriously. It may be somewhat more context dependent than the others? Certainly, the use of a firearm against a human being is a choice fraught with consequence, however justified one may feel.</i>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-20124443318900182492017-04-16T21:38:00.000-07:002017-04-16T21:38:12.394-07:00Forgetting How to Farm <div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>&nbsp;<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HtzTv0rHZTw/WPRFeDJLRWI/AAAAAAAACM0/BU3XKwn2HFUY_hQtCjGQlSzwR2TBjAHGgCLcB/s1600/cow%2Bparade.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="347" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HtzTv0rHZTw/WPRFeDJLRWI/AAAAAAAACM0/BU3XKwn2HFUY_hQtCjGQlSzwR2TBjAHGgCLcB/s400/cow%2Bparade.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>It ain't the Old Days</b></td></tr></tbody></table></b></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Hell, before the War we was <i>all</i>organic farmers.</b></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>-- Overheard between two elder farmers in the 1960s</b></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Forgetting How to Farm</b></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">One of the themes I yammer on about, here, is that things <i>are</i> different this time... that history is not a reliable guide for the collapse of modern civilization. And <i>forgetting how to farm</i> is one of the main reasons I believe this to be so.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">I stipulate that more food is being produced, today, by fewer people than ever before in human history. Furthermore, I accept that modern transport and preservation technologies help maximize distribution and minimize scarcity.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">So how, you may ask, can I argue that we have <i>forgotten</i> how to farm?</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">In a very real sense, human agriculture and animal husbandry are new on the scene. As <i>homo sapiens</i> we have only been farming for a tiny fraction of our existence. Nevertheless, some thousand generations hammered out their ways and means. </div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Only in the last eight millennia – a mere slice of deep time – did civilizational farming emerge. At first confined to flood plains and favored pockets. Later irrigated by labor and mechanical means. The horse harnessed and the plow perfected. Cultivars developed and breeds bred. Crop regimens and rotations increased yield. A host of supplementary technologies sprouted alongside, gradually improving the efficacy of farming within the budgets of sun and land (though not always the case).</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And we thrived on its abundance. Our numbers grew in steady, exponential increase. Malthus famously plotted population growth versus the growth of food production and (correctly) warned of famine if trends continued.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Also famously, they did not. The discovery of the New World and its crops (especially potato and maize (corn)) and nitrate deposits bought some breathing room. The Industrial Revolution and fossil fuels brought new, mechanical muscle to the land. Dams and deep well technology allowed irrigation far from surface water tables. Chemistry brought pest- and herbicides and, best of all, the means to liberate vital nitrogen from the atmosphere.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And now, monoculture, 'marketable' hybrids, GMOs (Genetically Modified Organisms), slash-and-burn practices and other profit accelerants are displacing ever more traditional varieties.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">What could possibly go wrong?</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Well... there are costs. Arable acreage lost to 'development'. Topsoil loss and salination. Accumulating toxins in soil and environment. Fresh water and aquifer depletion and pollution. Evolving resistance among pests and infectious agents. New diseases leaping via crowded domesticated species to ourselves. Climate impacts. Ecosystem infringement and collapses. Our own burgeoning numbers as other species fade and fail. Systemic stress across the spectrum.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Each of these, individually, undermines the conditions for agriculture. Collectively, they undermine the very foundations of agriculture. Still, that's not the problem, per se. Societies have faced combinations of these factors in the past, and variously thrived, transformed or fell with trauma relatively local in time and space. Hence the notion that the past is a guide to the future..</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">But, in the course of only two or three generations, we have all but lost the means to farm without industrial technology. Should we stumble in our course – should the inputs from the grid, industrial chemistry, seed, fuel and machinery, transport, cold storage, processing and canning pause for longer than we can live from food on hand... if we collectively miss a planting season... what then?</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Every two farmers feeding each hundred of us would be hard pressed to feed themselves in such a case. Hybrid seed is only worth a single crop. Plowing, planting and harvesting by hand (to name only three steps)? Water must flow by gravity or locally-powered pump. How to store the harvest? How to distribute it? To whom? Some jury rig is possible... modern understanding may ease the reinvention of some practices... but we'd be in deep doo doo.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Could something bring the global economy to a halt? I and others argue (elsewhere) that yes, it could, and sooner or later, will. Like the human body, any complex adaptive system is mortal. Blunt trauma, infection and 'normal accidents' go with the territory.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">History does guide us in this; all civilizations come to an end. Ours is now global.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">My great-Grandfather knew how to farm the old way. In his lifetime, truck and tractor replaced horse and wagon. He saw harvesters and later combines run the hands from field to city. By the end of his life, he was a living anachronism. </div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">The Amish, Mennonites and Hutterites still carry the torch, but their entire output can feed no more than a small, modern city. Third World farmers are often much closer to traditional ways, but taken together can feed no more than a small, modern country.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Peoples of the Stone, Bronze and Iron Ages, the first farmers, those who came after through WWII... they all carried with them knowledge and tools that we have scattered or lost. For some thousand generations, the ways and means of agriculture and husbandry carried survivors forward through thick and thin. But it <i>is</i> different this time...</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i>We</i> have forgotten how to farm.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">PS. Even worse, we have forgotten how to live as <i>non</i>-farmers in the wild. How many of us thrown 'naked into the wilderness' could survive, much less thrive? How many could build a shelter or make fire? Gather wild forage? Hunt or fish with DIY tools? Dress our wounds? Find our way?</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">But all these things can be learned. If nothing else, they comprise a fascinating hobby!</div>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-23530724180855086192017-03-02T12:49:00.001-08:002017-03-02T12:49:39.289-08:00Survival Mnemonics<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GBDrmmvGJyk/WLiCCH-bTRI/AAAAAAAACLc/-v6eOtzcIDwGKzjRFy8OrZLZ-UpDznP-gCLcB/s1600/Survival%2B%2BAcronym.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GBDrmmvGJyk/WLiCCH-bTRI/AAAAAAAACLc/-v6eOtzcIDwGKzjRFy8OrZLZ-UpDznP-gCLcB/s640/Survival%2B%2BAcronym.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>This one is a little long for my taste and slides off my brain, <br />but embodies a lot of good advice!</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><i><b>Eselsbrucke (Donkey's Bridge) -- </b></i><b>German word for mnemonic... a memory aid.</b><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Survival Mnemonics</b></span><br /><br />When crunch time comes, we may feel overwhelmed, dazed, traumatized or caught up in emotional turmoil... in many cases all of the above.<br /><br /><i>First of all, breathe... deep breaths. Still the mind. Come back to the moment.</i><br /><br />Are we back? Seriously, this first step <i>must </i>be taken or nothing... and I mean <i>nothing </i>will help you. But the moment you have done so, you are ready to face and improve your situation.<br /><br />I present the following mnemonics as among many applicable to survival situations. They are shorter than some, so I think more likely to be memorable and therefore useful. But when you find one you like, add it to your personal collection. Feel very free to craft your own.<br /><br />What <i>works </i>for you is what counts!<br /><b><br /><br />F.E.A.R</b><br /><br />There are many variations, some I find more helpful than others. Here a few of those:<br /><br /><i><b>Fight/Flight. Emotion. Acceptance. Response</b></i>. -- This helps version progress through the series of human instinctual responses to a crisis. Without serious training, we may not be able to avoid them, but we can certainly step through them faster when we realize it's a sequence. [From <a href="http://shtfschool.com/">SHTFSchool.com</a>]<br /><br /><i><b>Face it. Explore it. Accept it. Respond</b><b>.</b></i> -- This one deals specifically with <i>denial</i>, a very common human response to crisis.<br /><i><b><br /></b></i><i><b>Focus. Equip. Act. Review.</b></i> -- Once through the instinctual reaction phase, we might substitute this set. It's a very powerful problem solving algorithm. You might say it's the scientific method in a nutshell!<br /><br /><i><b>Forget Everything And Run </b></i><b>or</b><i><b> Face Everything And Rise</b></i> -- While this is a 'mere' attitudinal bucker-upper, many experts consider attitude to be <i>the </i>essential for survival. I'd add the caveat that - despite the slight sneering tone regarding the first option - when SHTF, it may be the better part of valor.<br /><br /><br /><b>Triple A</b><br /><br /><i><b>Assess. Address. Amend.</b></i> -- This is one I use throughout every day. It produces what I think of as the <i>upward spiral</i> of stepwise improvement, whether I'm fixing the sink, facing a bureaucracy or in crisis.<br /><br /><br /><b>S.T.O.P </b><br /><br /><i><b>Stop/Sit. Think. Observe. Plan. </b></i>-- This one stems from the Search and Rescue community. Persons who become lost often travel for considerable distances, becoming very much more difficult to locate. Literally <i>stopping </i>and improving the situation at hand is important to survival.<br /><br /><br /><b>Rule of Threes</b><br /><br />As a rule-of-thumb, one can survive...<br /><br /><i><b>3 hours without shelter<br />3 days without water<br />3 weeks without food</b></i><br /><br />This rule helps us prioritize our activities, especially as regards shelter. Be aware that hypothermia (cold exposure) is the most immediate threat in most outdoor emergencies.<br /><br />*****<br /><br />These mnemonics can help you get through the first moments and hours of a crisis.<br /><br /><i>Skills</i>, <i>tools </i>and <i>supplies </i>- in descending order of importance - will help us<i> throughout </i>the crisis,&nbsp; increasing our odds of survival. The more we have on-board <i>before </i>SHTF, the better the chances for us and our'n.<br /><br />It's called <i>prepperation!</i>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-37967410459168027742017-02-20T19:01:00.000-08:002017-02-20T19:01:06.183-08:00The Half Urban World for Doomies<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OxJKUflLAFY/WKDMZgc0qtI/AAAAAAAACIc/FvM6g2XB598Kn0u61rIqMIFhrzfCgipIACLcB/s1600/Urban%2BCollapse.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="475" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OxJKUflLAFY/WKDMZgc0qtI/AAAAAAAACIc/FvM6g2XB598Kn0u61rIqMIFhrzfCgipIACLcB/s640/Urban%2BCollapse.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><i><b><br />Rapid globalization and economic conditions will continue to produce increasing uncertainties and risks, as well as new opportunities that will impact all phases of urbanization—often with unanticipated consequences. As a result, uncertainty must be a critical component of planning and policymaking. Economic uncertainty must be taken into consideration when new and innovative projects are developed to ensure that they are “successful” in local and global terms, and better equipped to withstand fluctuations in local and global economies. </b></i><br /><br /><i><b>-- From <a href="http://www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/resources/seminars/Urbanization_Seminar/March_2010/Docs/March_2010_Report__Urban_Dialogue__FINAL_.pdf" target="_blank">Urban Policy in an Uncertain Economy</a> by the East-West Center </b></i><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-size: large;"><b>The Half Urban World for Doomies</b></span><br /><br /><i>(Roughly rounded terms, ahead. Original numbers gleaned from UN, IMF and World Bank sources ...)</i><br /><ul><li>About 10,000 years back, agricultural civilizations first arose. From that time through the 1700s, it took from 95 to 98 persons actively engaged in farming to support 100 people; themselves and 2 to 5 non-farmers. Today - leveraged via modern, industrial technologies heavily reliant on fossil fuels - 2 to 5 farmers support 100 people when averaged worldwide.<br /></li><li>In recent decades, lean production and inventory philosophy (Just In Time or JIT production and supply) has become widespread. This means inventories of supplies on hand are kept to a minimum. In the case of urban centers in the U.S., food vendors and local warehouses are stocked on average to supply only two to three days of normal demand.</li></ul><ul><li>A few years back, we passed the Half-Urban World mark. This means that more than half of us now live in urban concentrations of 2000 or more people. Current world population about 7,500,000,000 souls.</li></ul>Each dot is a point along one of several exponential curves -seldom related - each of which now describes rapid, dramatic change.<br /><br />Each development, in itself seems just another historical milestone on our road to the stars. Each a symbol of progress marking our advance as a species. <br /><br />Taken together, they comprise an unprecedented recipe for disaster.<br /><br />What we see is a situation in which an otherwise short-lived cessation of urban supply is going to have drastic consequences for urban populations who, in their desperation, will damage critical infrastructure beyond hope of recovery.<br /><br />Supply chain failure essentially stops most food production in its tracks. Without steady inputs of seedstocks, fertilizers, feed, fuels, parts and manpower, production and distribution grind to a halt, with a horizon of the next planting/harvest cycle. Irrigated areas would soon lose water, as would many reliant on pumped ground and aquifer waters. No markets or transport, no point in harvest even where possible. Livestock would be put down as feed on hand is exhausted, saving only what can be pasture fed.<br /><br />The hundred fed by each one or two farmers would go hungry, even if some emergency transport were arranged.<br /><br />What follows is my best guess as to how this might play out on a near global scale. There will be many variations, especially among towns set in low density, rural areas. Size and local food production industries may follow a different course. Third world urban areas may have better local supply, but tend to be high density. <br /><br /><b>Stage One: Urban Implosion</b><br /><br />This plays out much as collapse fiction portrays it. Panic, food riots, collapse of utilities and services, overwhelmed police and emergency services, emergence of gangs controlling resources and black market trade.<br /><br />What is often overlooked, I believe is damage to urban infrastructures, including many which are vital to service extra-urban regions. Rioting, fire and looting can easily damage power and water stations and conduits, telecommunications, fuel storage, computer networks, railway and general equipment. Experienced, irreplaceable personnel will not be able to commute, abandon their stations to protect their families, and/or be lost to violence.<br /><br />In fairly short order, without resupply, resources on hand will be exhausted or hoarded out of reach of many to most.<br /><br /><b>Stage Two: Urban Explosion</b><br /><br />Individuals and small groups must at some point decide to abandon the city in search of food. Water and shelter will be of constant concern.<br /><br />Likely, roads will be beset by 'highwaymen', exacting a toll of refugees.<br /><br />Surrounding suburban areas, where present, will have their own pitfalls and dynamics, both for residents and for the refugees flowing out of the cities. Food here will likely have been exhausted or corralled as well. Their mere extant along with attrition from violence will cut into refugee numbers. Never the less, I expect many (hundreds to millions, depending on initial population) will reach the rural surrounds.<br /><br /><b>Stage Three: 'Locust' Behaviors Threaten Rural Populations</b><br /><br />By this time, people will be desperate and ravenous. Every animal, grain, food or material deemed edible will be consumed. Every rumor that can be pursued will be, as mobs large and small pour through the countryside.<br /><br />In particular, gardens will be uprooted and seedstock consumed.&nbsp; <br /><br />At some point, cannibalism becomes inevitable.<br /><br />EROEI Energy Return On Energy Invested), I believe, will play a large role in this phase. Pillaging individuals and groups must achieve a net return, or they starve out. Dense or concentrated resources may support larger groups organized as bandits or raiders, but these will deplete quickly. Low density or well hidden resources will not, and any bandits straying into these areas will burn out.<br /><br />It is an open question as to whether ex-urban mobs will topple rural societies, which will have problems of their own when supply fails. Clearly, initial urban numbers will be well down. Rural populations will diminish, but likely not to the <i>proportional </i>degree as urbogenic ones. They will also have intimate local knowledge on their side. It may be that some can hold out and retain social cohesion.<br /><br />In this stage, something I think of as <i>Demographic Winter</i> (analogous to Nuclear Winter) seems possible. Large numbers of ex-urbanites burn what they can for warmth and cooking. Some percentage will get out of hand in uncontrolled forest and prairie fires. Globally. Smoke produced will likely have climate scale consequences for some time, further stressing survivors.<br /><b>Stage Four: Forage, Gardening? and Husbandry?</b><br /><br />Sooner or later, the population much reduced, small bands will begin to relearn wild forage and hunting technologies.<br /><br />Limited gardening may begin as non-hybrid seed caches are discovered, and growth propagated from those which escape being eaten. Hybridized cloned varieties may survive for propagation in this phase, as well, so long as they are not overly dependent for success on insecticides and other industrial measures.<br /><br />Livestock may be propagated. Most draft animal technologies as well.<br /><br />But propagation of skills, plant- or animal stocks, takes time.<br /><br />Of course, somewhere in here, domestic nuclear plants and spent rod storage facilities go LOCA.<br /><br /><b>Stage Four: Return to Organic Agriculture?</b><br /><br />Assuming our species makes it this far, methods of organic agriculture, if it happens at all, will have to restore what is remembered and reinvent much that has been lost, under conditions of changed climate.<br /><br />My guess is that this stage is unlikely. That we will not return to agriculture in any near future (millennial scale), and will likely have to rediscover it by the time we do.<br /><br />But most of human experience did without it, and by some estimations, were better off before its adoption transformed us.<br /><br /><br />*****<br /><br />Are full economic and urban collapse&nbsp; plausible? And if so, are these dynamics likely?<br /><br />If we are indeed approaching the limits to growth (see this blog's header), the conditions underlying the capital-based, global industrial economy. Events over the last 45 years are in high conformity with that hypothesis. We have seen the depicted curves flattening, with the model suggesting the dropside is nearly on us. Should a tipping point initiate cascading failures which outstrip capacity to halt them, ensuing collapse may well be catastrophic.<br /><br />Global economic collapse is entirely conceivable to the IMF, World Bank and central bankers at national and international levels. Crushing global debt (national, corporate, individual), fiat currencies weakened by quantitative easing, non-productive spending (e.g., military), wealth disparity, rising cost of insurance, unstable business environment... and under it all plummeting EROEI on fossil fuels... are seen individually as potential threats to the global economy. Collectively, they are ominous indeed. Notice that growth within a limited system is not appreciably on their radar.<br /><br />Global supply chain cessation would be the natural result of economic collapse (arrest). Again, there are many historical cases of financial breakdown leading to supply interruption. Typically, these have been short lived as support arrived, originating from stable surrounds. <br /><br />Are tools available sufficient to restore confidence and restart interrupted global trade in a time to avert runaway, systemic failures (of which urban collapse is an example)? It's a matter of debate, but the very concept of 'too big to fail' implies that failure is not an option since it brings down the house. Once something big gives, it may well be that issues multiply faster than they can be brought under control.<br /><br />There have been many historical examples of dramatic urban collapse due to war (especially siege), local economic collapse or natural disaster. Most of them follow stages one through three to some degree. Deviations appear to be more or less proportional to how much outside supply and assistance they receive, and how soon 'normalcy' is restored. How well the general population is armed plays a role. Long duration and/or lack of significant outside assistance makes the worst case the probable case.<br /><br />Should supply chains fail, military and National Guard assets, running on strategic reserves, may attempt to run stopgap supply services. But the task will be enormous, and efforts diluted by attempts to establish order and control. Personnel will be difficult to keep on task as they go AWOL in support of families, taking what they can get away with. Most assets will be stranded overseas.<br /><br />To my mind, the combination of low on hand inventories, food producer to consumer ratio and staggering numbers of the people involved and the high aspect ratio of critical dependencies in service infrastructures mean <i>that we are in uncharted territory.&nbsp;</i><br /><br /><i>That the transition from functional to desperate can proceed in remarkably short order.&nbsp;</i><br /><i>That urban breakdown will not be confined within urban city limits.</i><br /><i>That the infrastructures necessary for restoration of function can be damaged beyond repair. </i><br /><i>That rapid population loss - both urban and rural - can be catastrophic.</i><br /><br />In a scenario of global economic arrest, extrapolate outward, demographic explosion from every urban center, world wide. Looking at a map, the world appears a minefield..<br /><br /><br />*****<br /><br />In regard to the rural vs. urban bug-out debate, the preceding considerations suggest that rural wins hands down.<br /><br />Urban areas, producing no significant foods from their own ground must be abandoned. Sooner or later, <a href="http://shtfschool.com/" target="_blank">survivors</a> will bug out rural. Those already rural will be ahead of them.<br /><br />A further observation is that, the farther one is from urban concentrations, the better, lest the locust phase sweep over your position.<br /><br />My advice? Relocate rural, <i>now</i>.<br /><br />Git while the gittin's good.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />PS. I searched the terms <i>"half urban world" collapse </i>in several variations looking for serious, non-fiction analyses, and found little to nothing (mostly my own, amateur efforts!).<br /><br />I would welcome serious consideration of global urban collapse dynamics by anyone who's guesses might be better informed and referenced than my own. Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-87266685610096247102017-02-11T11:19:00.000-08:002017-02-11T11:19:58.196-08:00Survival from a Survivor: Selco's SHTF School<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BZ2Ozw5P5ls/WJ02h9AtH3I/AAAAAAAACIM/t7_ok862-FA4OKXRHrak0TY3Vf3qQhXCwCLcB/s1600/Bosnia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BZ2Ozw5P5ls/WJ02h9AtH3I/AAAAAAAACIM/t7_ok862-FA4OKXRHrak0TY3Vf3qQhXCwCLcB/s640/Bosnia.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Note foodstock at lower left</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Learn things, people always need somebody who know to fix things (people, shoes, whatever). </b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>It was not survival movie, it was ugly, we did what we have to do to survive.</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b></b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Nobody wins, we just survived, with a lot of bad dreams.</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- Selco </b></i></span></div><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Survival from a Survivor: Selco's SHTF School</b></span><br /><br />In my opinion, there is a whole lot of BS in survivor circles.<br /><br />Sometimes, this has to do with profiteers, hyping their nostrum for survival. Sometimes, it's those whose 'experience' is drawn from media stereohypes (sic). Sometimes the scenarios for which they prepare appear improbable in the extreme. Sometimes the scenarios are plausible, but advocated responses are not. Cruising through resources - both on and offline - it's <i>buyer beware!</i><br /><br />So I perk up when I encounter someone who a) has real life experience, b) seemed to learn from it, and c) can share it effectively.<br /><br />Selco, a Bosnian man writing largely at <a href="http://shtfschool.com/">SHTFSchool.com</a>, shares <i>very </i>hard-learned, first hand lessons from <a href="http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/a-survival-q-a-living-through-shtf-in-the-middle-of-a-war-zone_10252011" target="_blank">surviving a year of urban collapse in Bosnia</a>.<br /><br />In the early 1990s, his town of around 50,000 people was surrounded during civil war. Civil authority disintegrated, public services (electricity, water, information) ceased. A desperate struggle for survival ensued among civilians, gangs and the dregs of authority. And all the while, the town was being shelled and bombed.<br /><br />It was dirty, messy, smelly and deadly.<br /><br />Selco writes eloquently and movingly about impossible choices under pressure of life and death, and long and short term prices paid for survival. Paid in blood and soul. Not only what must be done to survive, but the impacts of survival itself. He affords both rare insight and example in the struggle to survive and the struggle to live with it.<br /><br />His is a sobering counterpoint to those who revel in the idea of coming collapse. Who look forward to grand adventure. <br /><br />Who lived and who died? Persons alone and Rambo types were&nbsp; the first to go. Those who sought or prioritized violence. Those who were too curious. Or trusting. Or inflexible. Or just unlucky. Many, many choices led to quick death. No honor. No glory. Guts required.<br /><br />As you read, recall that - bad as that situation got - it was not a full collapse. Airdrops of MREs were ongoing... while mostly commandeered by gangs, these reduce the overall competition for food. Smuggling provided a trickle of resources from less affected areas. It was a crisis, lasting 'only' a year before 'order' was restored (rather than permanent collapse).<br /><br />From these experiences, Selco has assembled a unique resource. What he and others did, what they might have done, how we might see disaster coming and what we all might do before, during and after.<br /><br /><i>Social distance</i> is a term borrowed from pandemic response. I believe it to be a foundational strategy of any response to SHTF with a chance of success. In urban settings, it is almost impossible to achieve, and - as Selco's experiences confirm - only then at considerable cost. Relocation to a rural or wilderness setting, outfitted with appropriate skills and tools, is strongly recommended.<br /><br />If you live in or near a city, or if you must pass through one; if you plan to bug in or out; if you merely plan to survive, Selco and <a href="http://shtfschool.com/">SHTFSchool.com</a> have something we all need.<br /><br /><br /><br /><i><b>List of open access articles by category, <a href="http://shtfschool.com/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</b></i><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-59452081196843949082017-02-04T20:45:00.000-08:002017-02-06T19:50:57.658-08:00Musings on the Archdruid's Comments on Korowicz<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2BxbqVn4yZs/WJYgoZFjQMI/AAAAAAAACHw/ek2I_UbEiiol3XmJpUyuAefobOItEmeKACLcB/s1600/Humpty.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="544" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2BxbqVn4yZs/WJYgoZFjQMI/AAAAAAAACHw/ek2I_UbEiiol3XmJpUyuAefobOItEmeKACLcB/s640/Humpty.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: small;">One of many possible Tipping Points for Humpty<br /><br /><span style="background-color: red;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Cartoon by <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/people/tom-toles" target="_blank">Tom Toles of the Washington Post</a></span></span></span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>All the King's horses</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>And all the King's men</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Couldn't put Humpty together again.</b></i><span style="font-size: large;"><b>&nbsp;</b></span></div><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Musings on the Archdruid's Comments on Korowicz</b></span><br /><br />I am one who reads both the works of David Korowicz, with whom I largely agree, and John Michael Greer, with whom I largely disagree. They represent reasoned poles of the fast vs. slow collapse debate.<br /><br />David Korowicz has written numerous papers examining Catastrophic Collapse (fast and deep). Principal among them is <a href="http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Trade-Off1.pdf" target="_blank">Trade-Off: A Study in Global Systemic Collapse</a>. It's tough going, but well worth the effort.<br /><br />He describes the global economy in systems terms.<br /><br />The global system includes a handful of <i>hubs </i>- agriculture, energy, finance, IT, transport, water/sewage -&nbsp; critical to the on-going function of the global system. All elements of the system are interdependent to some degree and most are dependent on one or more hubs. A failure in one element can spread to the next in a process called <i>contagion</i>. Failure of interdependent elements can infect a hub. Failure of any one hub brings down vast swathes of the system, and likely one or more others. Enough loss of function and the system collapses, fast and furious.<br /><br />Historically, crises in the modern global system have been overcome by <i>adaptive </i>and&nbsp; <i>negative feedback mechanisms</i> (directed and reflexive responses which curb runaway behaviors and ease the system toward normal function). But there are limits. He writes, "...our experiences of diverse system collapses, albeit on a smaller scale, should warn us to be cautious in our assumptions.<br /><br />Korowicz builds his case and concludes that the global system is stressed and near a <i>tipping point</i>, beyond which contagion spreads at an accelerating rate which <i>overwhelms available response mechanisms</i>, and the system as a whole fails.<br /><br />Okay... what does Greer think?<br /><br />John Michael Greer blogs eloquently at <a href="http://thearchdruidreport.com/">thearchdruidreport.com</a>, and has proposed a theory of <a href="http://ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf" target="_blank"><i>Catabolic Collapse</i></a> (slow and staged in the Long Descent). This theory is founded on the assumption that history is a reliable guide to the future, specifically in respect to the rise and fall of civilizations.<br /><br />In his post, <a href="http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2012/07/on-far-side-of-denial.html" target="_blank">The Far Side of Denial</a>, he devotes a large portion to an effort to rebut the Fast Collapse conclusions of <u>Trade-Off</u>.<br /><br />In essence, he argues that some combination of actions and effects can and will <i>always </i>halt runaway collapse on the scale of a civilization. Always has, always will. No reason to think it's different this time.<br /><br />Greer concurs with Korowicz' assessment of current affairs and that collapse is imminent or underway. He differs in that he believes that responsive actions and mechanisms limit the drop. That multiple collapses will continue in more or less descending, stair-step fashion, playing out over generations.<br /><br />To my mind, his rebuttal misses the mark. I will argue that a) capacity to arrest collapse is limited , b) Korowicz addresses actions that might be attempted and c) we are in historically uncharted waters.<br /><br />Greer supplies the historical example of the systemic US banking crises of 1932/33, introducing the crux of his rebuttal. He writes:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>It’s the sequel, though, that didn’t get into Korowicz’ analysis. Faced with the imminent reality of national collapse, the US government did not sit on its hands, which is what those with the capacity to do something are always required to do in fast collapse theories.<br />...<br />A nation facing collapse, it bears remembering, has plenty of options, and it also has the means, motive, and opportunity to use them. </i></blockquote><br />First, in fast collapse theories, it is definitely <i>not </i>required that <i>anyone </i>sit on their hands. One the contrary Korowicz (among others) anticipates a great deal of effort to recover, contain or regroup once a tipping point occurs. But his analysis indicates that, beyond a certain threshold, these efforts are insufficient. Crises spread faster than damage control mechanisms can cope, thier own systems failing as the crisis deepens. <br /><br />In this quoted passage, Greer is challenging Korowicz' assessment that "governments will respond to the crisis by choosing the minimal option they think will solve the immediate problem" (JMG's paraphrase). He considers this an assumption, rather than a conclusion.<br /><br />Yet, taken in context Korowicz concludes that governments are unlikely to take decisive action in advance of a crisis, and lag behind a rapidly unfolding one. This itself has plenty of historical precedent.<br /><br />Korowicz&nbsp; explicitly discusses inhibitions to prior action <i>and </i>several drastic response approaches (historically more or less effective) with detailed analysis of why they would come up short should the global system tip. He further examines radical approaches that have never been tried and finds them wanting.<br /><br />In other words, he very much includes action on the part of those able to act. <br /><br />I'll stipulate that a nation (aware that it is) facing collapse has plenty of options and motives to use them. But are those options both viable and sufficient to the task? Unproven at best. Past success is no guarantor of future success. Many of the options available in past crises are long gone from the table.<br /><br />Future options are unspecified and can only be guessed at. At best, they are likely to be improvisational (see Greer's 'kluged together response' from his defibrillation analogy, below).<br /><br />Means? Maybe; but in many cases doubtful. Means to avert some threats are physically out of reach, some technically so and others would break the bank.<br /><br />Opportunity? There's the little matter of adequate time. Responses require time. In any given crisis there is but a window of opportunity before responders are overwhelmed.<br /><br />That these allusions to unspecified 'drastic' options 'bear remembering' presuppose Greer's conclusion, and fail to address Korowicz' well-developed and explicit arguments to the contrary. <br /><br />It is insufficient <i>capacity </i>to stabilize a tipped system which implies <i>fast </i>collapse after a tipping point. <br /><br />Should the system tip and hubs fail, those who might act are in the dark without power. Lost without communication.&nbsp; Immobile without transport. Starving without food or water. Blind, toothless and very soon struggling to survive. Yesterday's plenty languishing undeliverable. Tomorrow's waiting for the smoke to clear.<br /><br />Capacity degrades even as opportunity slams shut. Like the rest of us, all the King's horses and all the King's men are constrained by the resources on hand..<br /><br />Is the past a reliable guide to the future in terms of fast vs. slow collapse?<br /><br />Greer's assumption that 'nothing is (fundamentally) different&nbsp; this time' dismisses critical technologies that demonstrably and fundamentally alter the contexts through which historiical events must pass.<br /><br />To pick one example, in 1859, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_event" target="_blank">Carrington Event</a> (high magnitude solar storm) caused telegraph systems around the world to fail and spark, causing many fires. Telegraph wires acted as antennas, capturing enough energy to exceed limits.<br /><br />Before about 1850, the Event would have had little to no impact whatsoever, as telegraph technology had not yet become widespread. By 1859 its impact was profound. Now... well.&nbsp;Now we're <i>wired</i>. <br /><br />Sophisticated circuitry doesn't hold up nearly as well as telegraph wire.We <i>might </i>have the means to shield all our vital electrical and electronics (as one might against EMP). But we haven't yet shown the will. In another such event we'd certainly <i>develop </i>that will. <br /><br />But all the King's horses and all the King's men would arrive too late with too little. Would Humpty merely suffer a few cracks, or be reduced to egg drop soup? The past cannot rule the latter out.<br /><br />Clearly, to state that X has never happened does not mean it can't or won't. Or that we survived a previous (superficially) similar event, so we will survive the next. All history plays out in context. Solutions to previous problems cannot be simply repeated. Cause and effect propagate differently as linkages change.<br /><br />New technologies create new conditions: <br /><br />They multiply the number of interacting parts, (inter)dependenciesparts and overall complexity. They supplant historical infrastructures - organic agriculture, beasts of burden, localized economies. They interrupt or degrade the transmission of skills all but lost after a single generation's hiatus. They supplant and degrade whole ecosystems. They expose us to dangers our species never imagined, much less faced.<br /><br />Change the context (system), change the flow of history. In matters of kind, quantity, complexity and tempo, we live in a changed world. Despite historical resemblances, guidance and intact commonalities, we are in new and uncharted territory.<br /><br />*****&nbsp; <br /><br />Greer concludes with the following (emphasis mine):<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>Korowicz’ study points to one very plausible way that the next major round of crisis could slam into the industrial world. <b>The fact that the nations affected by it could kluge together responses to it, slap the equivalent of defibrillator paddles onto their prostrate economies, and get a heartbeat again for the time being</b> doesn’t change the fact that a financial collapse followed by even a partial supply chain breakdown would be a massive crisis, the sort of thing that could well plunge hundreds of millions of people into permanent poverty and push the global economy further down a long ragged decline that will be much less amenable to drastic responses.&nbsp; We’re in agreement, in effect, that the patient is terminally ill; the question is simply whether first aid measures available to the paramedics on site can get his heart beating again, so he can drag out the dying process for a while longer.</i></blockquote>&nbsp;As a paramedic I feel this analogy (patient in cardiac arrest) is apt, but weighs in <i>against </i>Greer's thesis.. <br /><br />It is not at all a 'fact' that <a href="http://www.resuscitationcentral.com/defibrillation/early-defibrillation-sca-chain-of-survival/" target="_blank">defibrillation</a>, even at the hands of skilled technicians, can reliably 'get his heart beating again', much less a "kluged together response". Nor is it sufficient. Once a patient tips over into cardiac arrest, they are in crisis with severe danger of whole system collapse. <br /><br />Absent prompt, correct action and well managed recovery, the patient will likely die in very short order.<br /><br />Here's the concluding analogy from <i>Trade-Off</i>:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>Collectively, it is like we are passengers traveling in an unimaginably complex plane locked onto a perilous course. Our understanding of the engine and guidance system is partial, nor do we know many of the connections between them. We may want to change course by retooling the guidance system, but there is a meaningful risk it will stall the engine, and we’ll plummet to the ground. Good risk management might argue that before repairs are done, we ensure the passengers have parachutes, but time is running out, maybe it already has.</i> </blockquote>Greer presumes a Horn of Plentiful Options to intervene should this plane begin to plummet He appeals to the authority of the past.I can't follow him there. But...<br /><br />Collapse - fast or slow - is the unproven negative until it happens.<br /><br />We all come to believe, one way or another. Life is an act of faith. I believe the value of debate is refinement one's understanding. Through debate, we may confirm our conclusions, be persuaded of our opponents' or be inspired to new possibilities.<br /><br />My advice is to prepare for the worst (fast collapse), hope for the best (slow collapse) and take what comes with prepperation!<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />For more on the Carrington event, see NASA <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather" target="_blank">news</a> and <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12507/severe-space-weather-events-understanding-societal-and-economic-impacts-a" target="_blank">analysis</a>. In 2012, a solar storm of similar magnitude narrowly missed the earth.<br /><br /><br /><br />Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-15910333763551917272017-01-28T01:52:00.000-08:002017-02-03T20:57:23.943-08:00The Farmer is the One Who Feeds Them All<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Pg1FeL6KhnI/WIxhMdOWeyI/AAAAAAAACHM/R4s58CSMQbgl7EdUd9c36_m00nQT047RwCLcB/s1600/Dust%2BBowling%2BOn.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="438" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Pg1FeL6KhnI/WIxhMdOWeyI/AAAAAAAACHM/R4s58CSMQbgl7EdUd9c36_m00nQT047RwCLcB/s640/Dust%2BBowling%2BOn.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b><br /></b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b><br /></b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>If you'll only look and see, then I think you will agree<br />That the farmer is the man who feeds them all.</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- American Folk Song </b></i></span></div><br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Farmer is the One Who Feeds Them All</span></b><br /><br />In prehistoric times, there were few known urban centers of 2,000 persons or more.<br /><br />Recently, we passed a milestone marking the half-urban world. More than half of us now live in urban centers ranging from 2K persons to mega-cities in the tens of millions. <br /><br />At the height of the Roman Empire, there were fewer people alive than now live in the U.S., alone. For every person alive then, there are around 25 persons alive, now.<br /><br />At the founding of the U.S., around 90% of the population were farmers.<br /><br />Today in the U.S., between 1 and 2% are farmers. Of these, virtually none are subsistent, organic farmers, meaning they are reliant on fossil fuels, fertilizers, purchase of seed stock and markets.<br /><br />Globally, traditional farming skills, means, lands and infrastructure has been degraded or wholly lost.<br /><br />Climate change - whether or not it is anthropogenic - is making serious inroads into agricultural outputs. Top-soil loss, salinization, fresh water depletion, introduced and resistant pests are increasing their toll. All threaten worse.<br /><br />For the first time in human history, agriculture broke the hunter/gatherer mode of life, and we grew dependent on the farmer.<br /><br />A series of green revolutions has vastly increased the farmer's efficiency, but also their dependency on non-farm goods and services.<br /><br />For the first time in agricultural history, we depend in unprecedented numbers on the production of one or two among a hundred of us, and therefore the uninterrupted flow of those same goods and services.<br /><br />What's more, the chain of transmission of hard won organic agriculture technologies has been broken and all but lost. Modern farmers across the first world have lost the ways and means to grow non-hybrid food in quantity. Seed stock is not available in quantity; fossil fuels empower every aspect of modern farming.<br /><br />In the third world, farmers retain more traditional, low tech skills, but rely on ever more inputs from the global economy to manage their crops.<br /><br />Should the inter-dependent hubs fail - energy, transport, finance, IT/communications, water/sewage... failure of one takes down all - so does the supply of critical, agricultural tools and materials and the markets for whom their assets and production is geared.<br /><br />Should any of the conditions fail that allow the few to feed the many...<br /><br />What happens in the mega-cities? The cities? The towns? Who will feed them? What will they eat? What will they do?<br /><br />What might <i>3.75 thousand million</i> desperate people do?<br /><br /><br /><br />Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-41499982766783732952017-01-07T00:06:00.000-08:002017-02-03T17:48:26.294-08:00Exponential Growth for Doomies<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pztmw1R5qcw" width="560"></iframe> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b>A whirlwind tour of growth versus limits</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /><br /><i><b>The problem is, exponential growth patterns don't give you an early warning sign.</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b> </b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Because the dangers really speed up at the end, when it's too late to do anything about it.</b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- Dr. Kent Moors&nbsp;</b></i></span><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>&nbsp;&nbsp;</b></i></span><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b><br /></b></i></span></div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Exponential Growth for Doomies:&nbsp;</span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></b><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Double, Double, Toil and Trouble</span></b><br /><br />We all <i>think </i>we're familiar with growth.<br /><br />If we can earn $1000 a week, that's $4000 a month and $48,000 a year. Nice, neat and linear. Most of what we count in our everyday lives is like that.<br /><br />But <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth" target="_blank"><i>exponential growth</i></a> aka <i>geometric growth</i> aka <i>non-linear growth</i> isn't as intuitive. Even if one is familiar with it, this kind of growth can ambush us.<br /><br />If something is growing exponentially, each dollop added to the heap is <i>proportional </i>to (a fraction of) the heap that's already there. The bigger the heap, the bigger the dollop, the bigger the heap the bigger the dollop... a dash, a pinch, a dollop, a handful, a bucket.....<br /><br />We typically say the heap is growing at some percent rate per unit of time, say 5% annually (that is, 5% of the total heap size added to the heap every year... the amount added gets bigger each round).<br /><br />Or we might say that it has such and such a <i>doubling rate</i>, or <i>doubling time</i> (the time it takes the heap to double in size), say every 14 years.<br /><br />The Rule of 69 (or 70) allows a rough estimation of doubling time if we know the percent rate of growth per unit of time. Using 70 is more convenient than 69, but the math is easier.<br /><br /><blockquote><b>Rule of 70 --&gt; Doubling.Rate = 70 / (%Rate.of.Growth /Unit of Time)</b><br />[Divide 70 by percent rate per unit of time to yield the doubling rate in units of time.] </blockquote><blockquote><blockquote>This looks worse than it is.</blockquote></blockquote><blockquote><blockquote>From the example above, If our percent rate of growth per unit of time is 5% per year, then 70/5 = 14, and so our heap will double in 14 years. If the rate of growth applied quarterly, say, it would double in 14 quarters.<br /><br />Or, if an economy grows at 2.5% per year on average, then 70/2.5 = 30 years. That economy will double about every 30 years.</blockquote></blockquote><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jcCfk_7z-Es/WHCUwekIUoI/AAAAAAAACDE/-QZORUAuDqshk8LqJIzjofrm-KkbCVDQQCLcB/s1600/Exp%2BGrowth%2BCurve.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="441" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jcCfk_7z-Es/WHCUwekIUoI/AAAAAAAACDE/-QZORUAuDqshk8LqJIzjofrm-KkbCVDQQCLcB/s640/Exp%2BGrowth%2BCurve.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>US GDP growth overlayed on yellow exponential curve</b></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />Now, the thing is, at a low rate of exponential growth, things might look nearly flat for a long, long time (<i>like my father before me, time out of mind</i>; as if nothing will ever change). Then things pick up to an exciting time of change for the better (<i>that old woman saw the first automobile AND the first moonshot</i>). Things pick up more, and things get a little scary (<i>That kid born in 2000 is now looking at super bugs, cyber warfare and an ice-free arctic</i>).<br /><br />Each doubling time... tick, tick, tick... doubles the <i>entire </i>heap.<br /><br />The rate of change may stay the same, but the <i>increment </i>of change - the dollop of change - gets bigger. And <i>bigger</i>. And BIGGER! As we go from the more horizontal portion of an exponential curve to the more vertical portion, any given stretch of time - a year; a decade; a lifetime - spans an astonishing increase. Each stretch encompasses an ever more fantastic volume of change.<br /><br />In rough terms, the global economy - the world's heap of goods, services and assets - has been doubling every 25 years for the last two hundred (give or take).This means today's global economy is roughly 256 times that of 1800. Double the economy of 1990.<br /><br />At every doubling, close to twice the resources are consumed. Twice the waste produced. Twice the 'footprint' is required, as it were. The next doubling is due about 20 years from today according to the IMF.<br /><br />A 'next doubling' assumes nothing happens big enough to derail that juggernaut. It has mass. It has momentum. If it hits a wall or leaves the tracks it'll make one hell of a wreck.<br /><br />My friends, we live in a time when the now vast human world is doubling every few decades. <br /><br />Kurzweilians foresee the Singularity (when the technological curve goes vertical in) about 2045. If we make it that far, all bets are off. <br />We Doomies think that, coming somewhere soon-ish along the economic curve, something's gotta give. We'll hit the limits our planet can support. And then the trend will break. Break bad.<br /><br />How many more doublings have we got?<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />PS. Ugo Bardi recently posted this clever <a href="http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/01/amelie-amoeba-how-things-grow.html" target="_blank">discussion of and mnemonic taxonomy of exponential growth (and decay) curves</a>. Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-71529227863907899442016-12-27T17:26:00.001-08:002017-01-01T15:32:50.865-08:00How Systems Collapse: Human Body Analogy<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XG_iYRIU8DQ/WGMS9u90xdI/AAAAAAAACCA/z2uhNhPofCwJJVGknexnHEz58vz_OaSqwCLcB/s1600/flatline.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="186" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XG_iYRIU8DQ/WGMS9u90xdI/AAAAAAAACCA/z2uhNhPofCwJJVGknexnHEz58vz_OaSqwCLcB/s640/flatline.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;">&nbsp; </span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i><b>...Slowly, at first, then all at once.</b></i></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- Dmitry Orlov</b></i></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>How Systems Collapse: The Human Body Analogy</b></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">I would say that most persons who entertain the notion of Collapse picture some version of <i>Slow Collapse</i>. Aka <i>Catabolic Collapse</i> aka the <i>Long Descent</i>.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Those of us who foresee <i>Fast Collapse</i> appear to be a distinct minority.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">I read on-line that many cannot imagine the complete failure of a system as vast and complex as the Global Industrial Economy, along with <span style="font-size: x-small;">its </span>embedded Global Civilization. It seems too big to fail. <i>They</i> will not let it collapse!</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Here to help you imagine is the example of the Human Body, a vast (trillions of cells), highly evolved, Complex Adaptive System.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Our human body is as familiar to us as...&nbsp; well... as the back of our own hand. That it ages, suffers illness and trauma, wears out important parts... none of this surprises us. That the body is mortal is dead certain.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Bodily systems typically decline over years in a process one might think of as Slow Collapse. Arteries harden. Muscle mass is lost. Bones weaken. The mind's reach shortens. Whether one is a Yogic Master or couch potato, age takes its toll. Decline may be faster or slower, but it is relentless. We may suffer deficits or enjoy partial recoveries, but from conception, entropy holds us in its dissipating grip.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Illness or trauma can degrade or damage particular limbs, organs or systems. Our immune, digestive, cardio-pulmonary, neurological systems – to name a few – can slow and stutter.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">We are borne in stages toward our final crisis.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">The eventual mechanism of our demise is uncertain, but the prognosis is not. Sooner or later, some break-down – large or small – will abruptly escalate to total system failure. Whether from a state of good health or struggling with diminished function, when the crisis comes, our system is tipped from being a massively intricate, integrated, living body, to a collection of dis-integrated cells dying in isolation.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">For example, cardiac collapse begins with a small system failure (blood supply, electrical signal, valve failure, etc.). Once the 'pump' stops, blood is neither oxygenated nor distributed throughout the body. Cellular waste products are neither transported nor processed. Even with CPR, the system is going downhill fast. Organs, dependent on the heart's function, degrade or fail. Bodily elements, dependent on those organs degrade and fail.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Without <i>prompt</i>, correct, decisive intervention (and most often even with that advantage), the patient undergoes Fast Collapse.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">TEOTWAKI.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">There are many ways to come to terms with mortality. Seize the day. Eat, drink and be merry. Reach out in love to those around us. Far from paralyzing us, the prospect of our personal finitude can be a catalyst to <i>live</i>. And so might it be with global Collapse of Civilization. The fact of mortality itself needn't lead us to throw in the towel.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Point is, we're all too familiar with Fast Collapse in highly evolved, complex adaptive systems. </div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">In terms of the human body, we understand the mechanisms of collapse far better than its workings. In terms of the industrial economy, we understand neither, for all our economic theory. What we <i>do</i> understand of systems is that they can be driven out of their range of stability, and become vulnerable to catastrophic collapse.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Fast Collapse is not simply some pessimistic, Doomerish nay say, <i>per se</i>, to be dismissed with the lifting of a skeptical brow. It's not <i>Schadenfreude</i>, delighting in <i>Goetterdeamerung</i>. It's not even a narrative, competing with others for prime time. Instead, it is an <i>argument</i>based on the doings and undoings of complex adaptive systems.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">The prime mission of this blog is to lay out that systems theoretic argument in an accessible manner. To that end, I'll be presenting <i>Systems Theory for Doomies</i> in following posts, along with renditions of the major, systems based arguments supporting Fast Collapse.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And why?</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Fast Collapse calls for very different preparation measures than does Slow Collapse. While no preparation guarantees success; <i>no</i> preparation might very well guarantee failure.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i>Go not gently into that good night!</i></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-67003700552978599752016-12-16T00:18:00.002-08:002016-12-16T00:18:38.529-08:00Pascal's Wager, Adapted for Prepperation<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-y7Z_hvpqE7c/WEtJtbhxMfI/AAAAAAAACAw/UGkBL_5aGlYV9zN0C_Zkvfz3mSLi54ReQCLcB/s1600/Calvin%2527s%2BWager.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="214" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-y7Z_hvpqE7c/WEtJtbhxMfI/AAAAAAAACAw/UGkBL_5aGlYV9zN0C_Zkvfz3mSLi54ReQCLcB/s640/Calvin%2527s%2BWager.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: small;">Calvin's Wager</span><br />by Bill Watterson</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><i><b>Yes; but you must wager. It is not optional. You are embarked. Which will you choose then?</b></i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- From <u>Pensees</u> by Blaise Pascal </b></i></span><br /><br /><i><b>To make a choice is to change the future.</b></i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- Deepak Chopra</b></i></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Pascal's Wager, Adapted for Prepperation</b></span><br /><br />Blaise Pascal considered the question of how a rational person, in the absence of proof, should wager (bet) with respect to God's existence. It is an early example of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_theory" target="_blank">decision theory</a>. <br /><br />Paraphrased (and stripped to bare bones), the argument runs like this:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>If God does not exist, belief in Him costs one little.</i><br /><i>If God does exist, disbelief costs one much.</i><br /><i>Therefore,&nbsp; it is rational to wager that He <u>does</u> exist, and act accordingly.</i></blockquote><br />Let's restate that in terms of Collapse: <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>If Collapse is not coming, preparation costs one little.</i><br /><i>If Collapse is coming, lack of preparation costs one much.</i><br /><i>Therefore, it is rational to wager that Collapse <u>is</u> coming, and prepare accordingly. </i></blockquote><br />Wanna bet?<br /><br /><br />Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-54423836495204481152016-12-08T21:44:00.002-08:002016-12-10T18:31:02.435-08:00Fast or Slow Collapse: Why it Matters<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2TqIRV6Lk4A/WEoogc2j-9I/AAAAAAAACAg/njZ307YJnhQDU6QPkeQTru6eT7g37PsQgCLcB/s1600/The%2BDays%2Bof%2BWind%2Bby%2BQuin%2BYong%2BJun.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="366" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2TqIRV6Lk4A/WEoogc2j-9I/AAAAAAAACAg/njZ307YJnhQDU6QPkeQTru6eT7g37PsQgCLcB/s640/The%2BDays%2Bof%2BWind%2Bby%2BQuin%2BYong%2BJun.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://1x.com/photo/41794/all/latest-additions/the-days-of-wind" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: small;">The Days of Wind</span></a><br />by Qin YongJun</b></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><b><i>Slowly, at first, then all at once.</i></b><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><i>-- Dmitry Orlov on <a href="http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2012/06/fragility-and-collapse-slowly-at-first.html" target="_blank">Fragility and Collapse</a></i></b></span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Fast or Slow Collapse: Why it Matters</b></span><br /><br /><br />Fast and slow are relative terms.<br /><br />From the perspective of centuries and relative to its duration, the fall of the Roman Empire was relatively abrupt. From the perspective of individuals involved, however, many experienced little change in the course of their lifetimes. It was a Long Descent from the peak of its expansion, through crises and contractions to the Dark Age that followed. <br /><br />When we contemplate the Collapse of the modern global economy with so much that it entails, many are persuaded that it will be a similar, Long Descent, declining catabolically in fits and spurts over generations, in keeping with most known historical precedent.<br /><br />Fast Collapse types (myself included) are persuaded that descent will likely be abrupt on <i>our </i>time scale, crashing catastrophically from near peak to near zero in the course of days to months.<br /><br />Why does this matter? Why isn't it a genteel debate whose outcome will become clear in time... the loser will stand the next round of beer? Why shouldn't we just wait and see?<br /><br /><i>My answer is that the two scenarios call for vastly different preparations, and on a very different deadline.</i><br /><br />If the Long Descent lies ahead of us, our best bet is to establish locally resilient communities, capable of carrying forward in reduced circumstances. The learning curve is relatively gradual for dealing with the economic environment as it (d)evolves. For most, there will be world enough, and time.<br /><br />But should Catastrophic Collapse be the case, we are more or less flung onto our own resources, struggling amid all others mired in a fully similar plight, minus any functional economy at all.<br /><br />I present two analogies for slow and fast Collapse, respectively. They are imperfect but illustrate the different preparations which would be important.<br /><br />Here's an analogy for Slow, Catabolic Collapse: <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">The TITANIC strikes an island and goes hard aground. The lower hull is flooded and many of the ships stores are ruined, but there is no immediate risk of sinking. The generators go down, and with it many of the ship's systems. But most crew and passenger decks are clear of water. Passengers, while dazed, turn to and begin to work with crew to aid the injured, ensure dry shelter for those impacted and ration supplies. <i>They do best who have good relationships with others aboard - both socially and those with skills.</i> Eventually, some power may be restored and longer term plans undertaken. And so on. But the island has limited resources... things will get worse before they get better.</blockquote><br />And one for Fast, Catastrophic Collapse:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">The TITANIC strikes an iceberg and sinks within hours. There are no lifeboats (preparations are the responsibility of individuals). Most flounder in the water with a very brief window of survival. Many are drowned by their panicked, desperate neighbors who attempt anything to live. Some had prepared for this emergency, as best the could. Of these, many don't make it; pulled down by the floundering masses. Some fail due to poor choices. A few, thanks to adequate preparation and good fortune survive the immediate disaster. And so on. But they are now adrift among many resources (analogy breaks down, here) but with little to no hope of assistance.</blockquote><br />I'm not going to argue, here, for Fast Collapse, though that is my persistent conclusion. But once Collapse begins in earnest one's choices may be tightly constrained. In the face of Fast Collapse, a 'wait and see' approach is likely to become 'waited too long'.<br /><br />I urge that deciding which scenario is ahead/immanent, and acting upon that decision is a matter of life and death for you and yours. To wait and see is to have made a decision.<br /><br />A last observation, however... preparations for Slow Collapse do not address Fast concerns, but those for Fast Collapse perform valuable service in many likely Slow scenarios. Even if never called upon, these do no harm. They are like fire escapes which may never be used...<br /><br />...But <span style="font-size: small;">you're gonna want 'em once all hell breaks loose.<b><br /></b></span><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />PS.&nbsp; This may be the place to mention that I often hear a cheap kind of psycho-analysis speculating on <i>why</i> people conclude whether fast, slow, or indeed <i>any </i>Collapse is probable.We all assess what facts we can, relate them, and attempt predictions to the best of our ability.<br /><br />Those persuaded that Collapse is likely don't glory in it. Fast Collapse folks don't want to avoid a long, arduous Descent. Slow Collapse folks don't wish to avoid a traumatic, desperate Catastrophe.<br /><br />I mean, isn't the Future hard enough to contemplate without second guessing motives?<br /><br />Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-65014874518979793732016-09-06T18:02:00.000-07:002016-09-06T18:02:39.992-07:00The Knowledge: A Review <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OH0pfkfWKWg/V89mQwkpywI/AAAAAAAAB6o/OVrItwOOG7gmt5r2l-VEtJ84_JooE6nbACLcB/s1600/forge.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OH0pfkfWKWg/V89mQwkpywI/AAAAAAAAB6o/OVrItwOOG7gmt5r2l-VEtJ84_JooE6nbACLcB/s640/forge.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><b>The most visible technology we use daily is just the tip of a vast iceberg – not only in the sense that it's based on a great manufacturing and organizational network that supports production, but also because it represents the heritage of a long history of advances and developments. The iceberg extends unseen through both space and time.</b></i></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- From <u>The Knowledge</u> by Lewis Dartnell</b></i></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>The Knowledge: <span style="font-size: small;">How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm</span></b></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Review by Dave Zeiger</b></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;">Anyone who thinks civilization is indestructible doesn't get out much. </span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;">The past is heaped in ruin. The future harbors the chance of natural and/or man-made cataclysm. Our present appears more than a little shaky. </span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;">Like our bodies, it's quite possible that something vital will one day give 'way. The system-as-a-whole clutches its collective chest and expires, gasping. Is crushed by falling rock. Or brought low by hurled, nuclear-tipped spear.</span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;">What then?</span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i><u>The Knowledge</u></i> by Lewis Dartnell goes a long way toward answering that question. He provides an over-view of means by which that our world might re-boot itself from little more than scratch. A tool-kit of core, synergetic technologies with which industrial society has been achieved. Yet it is not prescriptive; this Knowledge empowers the future but leaves it to find its own way.</span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"> <span style="font-size: small;">Along the way, Dartnell provides a fascinating tour through the 'engine-room' of <i>our</i> industrial world. He illuminates its essential functions, interdependencies and history. Cataclysm or no, his book will have you looking with new eyes at the ubiquitous, taken-for-granted substances and artifacts permeating our lives. Should cataclysm befall us... well... it's a magnificently conceived gift to the future.</span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i><u>The Knowledge</u></i> is a <i>tour de force </i>which should appeal, not just to Doomers such as myself, but to any who yet feel the Renaissance passion for the Knowledge of our own times. That lauded and once valued Jack-or-Jill-of-all trades-kind of Knowledge that deepens our appreciation for our world, and extends our reach within it.</span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;">Wonderful book, and I mean full of wonders! I return to its pages time and again, as seeds it has sown bloom within me. </span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;"><u>The Knowledge</u> initiates a magnificent and, I believe, vital project.</span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;">To my mind, it succeeds where many have failed to strike that narrow balance between too much and too little. It accepts its limitations and goes a long way toward persuading those who may be so moved, that a 'stitch in time' is a worthy goal.</span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"> <span style="font-size: small;">Where it is, perhaps, improvable has more to do with presentation than content; the not trivial task of speaking effectively to persons not yet born, and who inhabit a world <i>homo sapiens</i> has never seen. For them, the great torch of technology – from fire to the Clovis point to the germ theory – handed from generation to generation may well have been dropped.</span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: small;">Lewis Dartnell has taken up the part of Prometheus, offering fire to the future.</span></div><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><br /></i></div><i></i><div style="font-weight: medium; margin-bottom: 0in;"><i><span style="font-size: small;">Godspeed!</span></i></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>As with technology, The Knowledge is but the tip of an iceberg. Visit </b></i></span><a href="http://the-knowledge.org/"><span style="color: navy;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i><u><b>The-Knowledge.org</b></u></i></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>to participate in re-booting the future.</b></i></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-44183989740525167482016-02-24T23:50:00.001-08:002016-02-25T18:08:16.268-08:00An Aspect Ratio Component to Collapse?<br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><img alt="http://pocketnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/jenga.jpg" src="http://pocketnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/jenga.jpg" height="640" width="480" /></span></div><br /><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><b>The bigger they come, the harder they fall.</b></i></span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- Proverb</b></i></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">An Aspect Ratio Component to Collapse?</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Over the years, I've seen a number of buildings collapse.</span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Some take years, slowly kneeling - like a dying elephant - before collapsing gently in place. Others stand proud - losing a bit, here and there, to wind and weather - then, one day to the next, they collapse with a roar.</span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">It dawns on me that aspect ratio is a pretty good predictor of which it will be. Buildings which are short for their footprint ease themselves to the ground. Those which are tall for their footprint go down fast and hard. Think the Pyramids vs the Twin Towers.</span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">If this a property of systems in general, we might wonder what aspect ratio describes our global industrial civilization?</span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">A subsistence&nbsp; farmer might be described as low aspect. Aside from a few necessities - salt and iron are often all that's needed - all necessities are provided from the footprint. In contrast, a corporate farm cannot be worked without constant supply from the outside world (machinery, fuel, fertilizer, seed, a market, etc...), and a critical failure can bring operations to a halt. I'd consider that high aspect.</span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Even more so in the case of cities.&nbsp;</span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Cities are utterly dependent on the uninterrupted flow of goods, services, material and personnel from well outside its footprint. In some cases from a world away. Very high aspect in our <a href="http://www.newgeography.com/content/003249-what-a-half-urban-world">half-urban world</a>.</span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">I'm just sayin'.</span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-1157684573190020092016-02-06T17:30:00.002-08:002016-02-09T00:48:38.147-08:00Tweeting the Future: Thoughts toward Launching a Meme<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Book or tree of knowledge concept with an oak tree growing from" class="aligncenter wp-image-354" height="400" src="https://reflectandrefresh.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/bigstock-book-or-tree-of-knowledge-conc-82493888.jpg?w=600&amp;h=400" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="600" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Seeding a Tree of Knowledge</b></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><i><b><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span></b></i><br /><i><b><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span></b></i><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"> Where once there was a void,</span></b></i><br /><i><b><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Now at least there are </span></b></i><br /><i><b><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Seeds of splendor,</span></b></i><br /><i><b><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Becalmed belief for another time.</span></b></i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">&nbsp;by <a href="http://www.scotthastie.com/">Scott Hastie</a></span></b></i></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tweeting the Future: Thoughts toward Launching a Meme</b></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">Okay. So let's assume it's going down hard with a long, dark age ahead, on the order of centuries to millennia. Let's say we want to send a message to our descendants, if any. How might we send it, and what might we say?</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">Given that high tech media are not likely to survive, we're stuck with lower tech options:</span></div><ul><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">Social trasmission (institutional, hermetic, tribal, ???)</span></div></li><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">Focused oral tradition (memorized) -- (songs, poems, stories, ???)</span></div></li><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">The written word (engravings, impressions, durable books, ???)</span></div></li><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">All of the above</span></div></li></ul><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">In all cases, I consider it useful to think in terms of <i>memes</i>, ideas which are 'copied' in one or more media (including human mind and society). I'll speak of our message as a single meme, but it is more likely to be a set of memes.</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">A meme's success, per se, is determined by:</span></div><ul><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i>Fecundity</i> (high rate of copies) – Tell all your friends! Tell them now! Get them to do the same!</span></div></li><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i>Fidelity</i> (accuracy with which it is copied) – Hi fidelity gets a message across, while low fidelity soon drifts from its intent (think the game of Rumor aka Telephone). </span> </div></li><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i>Longevity</i> (how long the meme is able to generate copies) – We're still reading the <i><u>Epic of Gilgamesh</u></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"> and the Code of Hammurabi.</span></span></span></div></li></ul><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">So how might we maximize the odds? Do we send out the naked meme as a podcast and hope it takes? Do we manipulate the message for better transmission? Or even 'encapsulate' it in a vessel (a book, say), that itself contributes to transmission? Or hitch-hike on an already successful tradition? Do we establish a medium, such as a hermetic sect?</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">My thoughts are evolving along these lines:</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></div><ul><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i>The message should be fashioned concisely in 'scriptural', poetic language using simple, non-technical language. Prose? A poem? A song (the tune of Greensleeves is an ancient, musical meme)?</i></span></div></li><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i>It should be inspirational, and at best, useful (possibly as a teaching tool or mnemonic) during transition, both currently and in the midst of a dark age.</i></span></div></li><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i>It should be written in durable, portable book form, and also inscribed in stone and/or impressed in fired clay (or equivalent). </i></span> </div></li><li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i>Publication, distribution, memorization, transmission and discussion should be encouraged from the outset.</i></span></div></li></ul><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">Scriptures are a tried-and-true method for bringing a body of information through difficult times with good fidelity. They replicate through both written and focused oral traditions, and are abetted by diffuse oral traditions (e.g., schools of propagation, discussion and debate). The feeling of higher purpose associated with scripture improves fecundity and fidelity.</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">If it is beautifully and compellingly written, it is more likely to have high fecundity. Especially so if it is inspirational and/or useful to persons immersed in a dark age. These should be goals at the composition stage.</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">Concision is a virtue on all fronts... being shorter, it requires less mental and physical resources for copying (improved fecundity), and is less likely to incur copy errors (fidelity). If it is more often copied into smaller, relatively portable physical media, longevity is enhanced. </span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">Physical media which are both durable and beautifully crafted increase longevity. Holy books which are beautifully bound and illuminated are valuable property simply as objects, protected and treasured regardless of belief in their contents. Many have survived for centuries.</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">So let's look at some content/format possibilities...</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">Richard Feynman proposed this single, ingenious sentence, which 'unfolds', under careful inquiry, to yield all of physics (with all other hard sciences implied):</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">“<span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i>...All things are made of atoms – little particles that move around in perpetual motion, attracting each other when they are a little apart, but repelling on being squeezed into one another.”</i></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="font-style: normal; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">This sentence is deliberately NOT fashioned in compliance with current, scientific consensus in which 'Quantum fields' have supplanted 'Atomic particles'. But not-yet scientists starting from this sentence, have a good shot at figuring out quantum fields on their own, in time. The goal is not up-to-the-minute accuracy, but to provide an <i>accessible</i> starting point to an inquiring mind.</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;">James Lovelock proposed a compendium in clear, unambiguous language, preserving all our knowledge, <i><u>A Book for All Seasons</u></i>. Obviously, this would be a BIG book.</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Each has transmission liabilities. </span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Clearly, a tome is not concise, and loses all the advantages of concision. If we wished to transmit our modern knowledge base, memorization – or even understanding the whole – would be out of the question. Few of today's specialists can fully master more than even two fields of knowledge. What's more, the effort of composition and subsequent production would be immense, far beyond the reach of small fry.</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">A single sentence is more attractive, to me. It is </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">ultra</span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">in most of the virtues; ultra-portable, transcribable, easily memorized even by the young. It's a little clunky, however. I suppose it could be written as a limerick?</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><b><span style="text-decoration: none;">All things are made out of bits</span></b></i></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><b><span style="text-decoration: none;">That whiz non-stop in a blitz.</span></b></i></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"> <span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><b>Apart by a fraction,</b></i></span></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"> <span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><b>They feel an attraction.</b></i></span></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><b><span style="text-decoration: none;">But push 'em together, they splits.</span></b></i></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Surely you're joking, Mr. Feynman!</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Here's a an attempt to mimic successful, albeit less mnemonic forms...</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">Thus spake St. Feynman</span></i></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">in the Age of Legend:</span></i></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">“<span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><b>All things compose of tiny bits;</b></i></span></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><b><span style="text-decoration: none;">atoms dancing without cease</span></b></i></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><b><span style="text-decoration: none;">Faster when warmed</span></b></i></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">Slower when cooled</span></i></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">Heat is tempo</span></i></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">Near, they attract</span></i></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">thrust close, repel</span></i></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">To observe the dance </span></i></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">is to change the dance”</span></i></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">Hear ye the seed of all knowledge!</span></i></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">Sow, and ye shall reap.</span></i></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">There... some poetic license and a hint of quantum physics. An improvement on St. Liebowitz, but still not exactly </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">catchy</span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">. Is there a poet in the house?</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Wisdom is tougher nut to crack. Its more vague and koan-ish, so is harder to unfold?. Subject to contention, too. But even among religions, Feynman's approach applies. Here's Jesus of Nazareth's summary of Judaism (arranged from KJV)...</span></span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">This is the first and great commandment:</span></span></span></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Thou shalt love the Lord thy God</span></span></span></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">with all thy heart,</span></span></span></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">and with all thy soul, </span></span></span></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">and with all thy mind.</span></span></span></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">And the second is like unto it; </span></span></span></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Thou shalt love thy neighbor as thyself.</span></span></span></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">On these two commandments </span></span></span></b></span></div><div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">hang all the law and the prophets.</span></span></b></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Guatama Bhudda may win the brevity prize, summing his teachings with </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;"><b>“Release all attachment.”</b></span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">&nbsp;</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Point is, the concept isn't new, and we have some authorities to consult.</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">The problem with too much brevity is that, as a vehicle, it has low </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">inertia</span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">. Why would a slave in the seventh year of the Warlord Vog pass this on? For that matter, would Vog or his flunkies - who might wish at least to </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">appear</span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">wise - pass it on? </span></span></span> </div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">It seems to me that, for all its genius, Feynman's sentence or its variants, would have near zero fecundity. The Bhudda's may make it as one meme within an already successful meme set, but that hardly needs our help.</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Even among my fellow geek friends, it gains no traction. If they've heard of it they love the </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">idea</span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">, but none have managed to learn it by heart. They're hard pressed to remember its important features, despite that they're conversant with the principles. To someone marooned in a dark age, it would be useless and inscrutable blither. If printed on a waterproof card, it would be of better use to patch the roof.</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">But I think the </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">approach </span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">is a good one.</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Every line, verse or stanza – each the seed of a whole line of inquiry – would ease the task of those who follow. Each would confer useful knowledge from the very first steps along the path. And with a longer poem or shorter book, there's room to improve the hints, and build one upon the next.</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">I believe there is a threshold of critical mass, where mere weight of words gain enough </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">gravitas</span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">to capture imagination, appealling at any stage of knowledge. They could gain the allure of a </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">gnostinomikon; </span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">a book of knowledge, backed by actual science, to shame the grimoires of the past. Every mage who approached would be started on a </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">true</span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">path.</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Think what a smattering of infection theory might have done for those in a time of cholera? A few, trustworthy and select words to the wise would be invaluable. Only to read that </span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">there are miniscule, living creatures which </span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">c</span></span><i><span style="text-decoration: none;">an carry disease by contact, inhalation or ingestion</span></i><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">... it doesn't take a medical genius to get from there to patient isolation, or to check the water supply, or to wash hands and dressings.</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">The scientific method itself -- our greatest invention -- can be drawn in a few words, and guide through the worlds of knowledge. </span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">(“Our greatest invention” from Lewis Dartnell). </span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">Scientific method, math and logic, physics, mechanics, chemistry, evolution, ecosystemics, economics, politics. All these in seed form.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">With such a book in their hands, the great minds which inhabit all times would be put onto the scent, passing at a run the cold, blind trails of ignorance...</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">...on their way to Renaissance.</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">***</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">PS. There's a dark possibility to such a project. It may be that we'd be passing them a poison pill. The jury is still out on whether ours is the best of times or the worst of times. Without hard won wisdom to accompany the power this meme would carry, it might be like passing a live grenade to a baby.</span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-38891119139645680082016-01-16T21:31:00.001-08:002016-01-18T16:21:21.479-08:00Belated Musings on Christmas vs. Predatory Capitalism<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><pre style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><img class="irc_mut" height="426" src="https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSJkyCjKIcICgtFG551tIgKRvHaRBA-jUVHd_ZJJlwj6Pm29rFK-Q" style="margin-top: 70px;" width="640" /> </span></pre><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><b>Mr. Potter, what makes you such a hard-skulled character?&nbsp;</b></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><b>You have no family, no children.&nbsp;</b></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><b>You can't begin to spend all the money you've got.</b></span></div><pre><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">&nbsp; </span></pre><pre><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">&nbsp;</span></pre><pre><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></pre><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">“<i><b>But you were always a good man of business, Jacob” faltered Scrooge.</b></i></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">“<i><b>Business!” cried the Ghost,,,. “Mankind was my business. The common welfare was my business; charity, mercy forbearance and benevolence were all my business. The dealings of my trade were but a drop of water in the comprehensive ocean of my business!”</b></i></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- From <u>A Christmas Carol</u> by Charles Dickins</b></i></span></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Belated Musings on Christmas vs. Predatory Capitalism</b></span></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><u>A Christmas Carol</u> by Charles Dickens and the movie <u>It's a Wonderful Life</u> by Frank Capra are polemics against rampant Capitalism... that profit-before-all economic machine that commodifies everything it touches. Churns resources to garbage. Creates profit rather than wealth and moves that from the commons to the pockets of so very few.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">In these classics, we see two poster-boys of Capitalism, neither of whom would seem the least reprehensible to today's 'Captains of Industry' and 'Financial Wizards'.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">In Scrooge, we see a man possessing all the lauded virtues of entrepreneurial endeavor. His is thrifty, yet knows when to 'take risks'. Shrewd, but 'honest'. Punctual, and fulfilling his contracts. A 'good man of business'.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">But not one whit more. </span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">He cheats himself of love and companionship. Blinds himself to those impoverished – at least in part - by those systems of law and property which have enabled his enrichment. Scoffs at liberality (“...are there no Prisons?”). His employee – paid no more than what the market will bear – is barely scratching out a living for himself and family.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Still, his is a mere shortage of empathy and kindness; his indifference is, in a sense, passive.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">The three Spirits who visit him show him a past, present and future in which his profits profit him not. Re-envisioning his role as a capitalist, he is redeemed, and the world better for it.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Potter, on the other hand, is an active perpetrator... a 'monopoly capitalist' or Robber Baron.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">He is a slumlord who manipulates markets and his business environment, and undermines his competition<span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">. </span>“Bearing down hard”, he uses financial leverage to coerce his “lazy, shiftless populace” of neighbors toward a “hard-working and thrifty working class”. <span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Though a board member of <span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Bailey Building and Loan, he literally steals $<span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">8<span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">,000 and frames George <span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Bail<span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">ey for malfeasance.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Yet, again with the aid of a spirit, we visit the dystopic Pottersville, a nightmare of heartless capitalism run amok. Alienation, desperation and the triumph of the market is the result of finance divorced from human values.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Both Scrooge and Potter are capitalist paragons. Intelligent, decisive, determined, and above all, successful. They issue credit by the numbers and foreclose to their own advantage, unencumbered by charitable weakness. Yet, neither – at least before his eyes are opened – is a paragon of mankind.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">It's notable that, in neither story, are the Market nor even Capital themselves in question.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">'Liberal' businessmen solicit Scrooge for charitable donations. The London markets are described in mouth-watering terms. The Bailey Savings and Loan (Potter's opposite) is capitalist to the core. Supply and demand are axiomatic in both.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Yet bot<span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">h were written <span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">to implore a return to <span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Adam Smith's "enlighte<span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">ne<span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">d self-interest" - <span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">the awareness that one benefits from the weal of one's neighbors<span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">, community and nation.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">I've quoted the word 'liberal', here, and one might well introduce the term 'social(ist)', words much reviled at this apex of a long, bull run.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Year after year, we revisit these stories. Regardless of where we sit on the political spectrum, we empathize with the same protagonists. Fan, Belle, Fizziwig, the Crachitts. The Baileys and all of Bedford Falls. We react to the same antagonists. Scrooge, with hope and gladness for his redemption. Potter, our sympathy for his paraplegia tempered by the unrepentant smallness of his soul.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">There is no argument about whether Scrooge and Potter are simply misunderstood. No one would prefer Pottersville to Bedford Falls. None think Tiny Tim earned an early demise, nor that his family earned one for him. None feel that George Bailey, in the end, wasted his life.</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">Can we agree, beyond the Christmas season, that there is more to life than profit? May we not strive&nbsp; for more humane, inclusive systems of finance?</span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></div><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;"></span><br /><pre><span style="font-family: &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">&nbsp;</span></pre>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-78929435802918742732015-07-25T00:41:00.000-07:002015-07-25T00:41:06.821-07:00Gummint, Bandits, Lone Opportunists and EROEI<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings></xml><![endif]--><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="http://pre13.deviantart.net/355b/th/pre/f/2013/330/9/c/bandito_by_tovarart-d6von0p.jpg" class="overflowing" height="640" src="http://pre13.deviantart.net/355b/th/pre/f/2013/330/9/c/bandito_by_tovarart-d6von0p.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="419" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="_r3"><a 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.0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">I rob banks because that’s where the money is. </b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;">– Misattributed to Willie Sutton</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Gummint, Bandits, Lone Opportunists and EROEI</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">I was picking thimbleberries, this last week, pursuant to our next batch of wine.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">Thimbleberries seem unusual, in that they only ripen a few at a time. Most clusters of several berries generally only sport a single ripe one. When it falls of its own volition, is picked, succumbs to mildew or other insult… only then does the next ripen in turn.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">To make a 4 gallon batch of wine, a gallon or more berries are needed. Picking too early – when only a few are ripe and they replenish slowly – is a waste of time. But a couple of weeks after the first outliers ripen, there develops a workable density, and the clusters push out a new ripe berry overnight. Focusing over a few days of passes, we can collect enough to ferment. If we wait too long, though, the good ones thin out again... they remain available for the occasional treat, but not in quantity.&nbsp;</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">Low density output may be a thimbleberry strategy. Despite being tasty as can be, they generally take too much effort to collect <i>en masse</i>. It's just too much effort to support a dedicated harvest. We, birds and bears soon move on to higher yield berry species.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">All this got me thinking about the post-collapse threat of a) the Gummint, and b) bandits, both of major concern to many of my fellow ‘Doomers’. To these, I add c) the Lone Opportunist.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">Me? I’m not too worried about the first two, thanks to low EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested).</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">Gummints, bandits and we who gather thimbleberries can only thrive on a considerable net return on the energies we invest. Those who operate at a loss are not long for the world, as we know it or otherwise.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">To be successful, predators require several things of their prey. Prey must be subdued with reasonably low risk to the predator. Resources taken from prey must be considerably greater than those required to acquire them. Prey populations must be sufficiently dense to support a predator. Prey must replenish their numbers (or the resources they generate) rapidly enough to support themselves <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">and</i> the predator.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">In short, EROEI is vital to predators.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">So, what are the odds that small, dispersed populations of those of us subsisting in a future backwater will attract Gummint ‘sweep-up’ operations, or support bandits? My guess is low.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">The Gummint, I believe (including those foreign to my native lands), will have more important things to attempt, such as locking down strategic resources, pacifying urban centers and/or turning warlord. They will have limited resources at all levels, poor logistics and personnel issues. I’ll be surprised if they can ‘project force’ beyond their home bases, if that. Rounding up unknown numbers of hillbillies far from ‘vital interests’ is likely to be given very low priority.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">Bandits are more flexible, and therefore potentially more dangerous. Yet they, too, will be focused on high-return situations. Concentrations of people or goods, high traffic routes, high value items. Historically, this has been the case, and I see no reason for it to change in a diminished future. Avoid these situations, and bandits will have neither reason to pursue us, nor the means.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">The Lone Opportunist concerns me more. Someone much like ourselves, who has chosen our area, managed to survive for some time on their own, yet is willing to take advantage by force when opportunity presents. EROEI is unburdened by overheads, in this case. They aren’t making their living by predation, but see a little here and there as bonus. I see them as a positive danger.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">I <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">hope</i>that this type will see more value in cooperation than coercion. History isn’t entirely comforting on this score. Still, if the Wild West is any example, people by and large got along. Frontier encounters between strangers appear to have been guarded (good boundaries, good manners, weapons ready) until trust grew, which it most often did. Most often warranted. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;">So I’m cautiously hopeful.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 207.8pt 323.35pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 361.9pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></div>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-47584682863961332902015-05-19T23:13:00.000-07:002015-05-21T10:08:55.753-07:00Ruminations on SHTF Strategy<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-13ue3sLn2Bs/VVwNmMS9QTI/AAAAAAAABrE/SmqQqBeKWOY/s1600/BenjIs.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-13ue3sLn2Bs/VVwNmMS9QTI/AAAAAAAABrE/SmqQqBeKWOY/s640/BenjIs.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Get lost!</b></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Not being tense but ready.<br />Not thinking but not dreaming.<br />Not being set but flexible.<br />Liberation from the uneasy sense of confinement.<br />It is being wholly and quietly alive, aware and alert, ready for whatever may come. </b></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- From Tao of&nbsp; Jeet Kune Do by Bruce Lee </b></i></span></div><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;">Ruminations on SHTF Strategy</span></b><br /><br />Like so many Preppers over the years, we have pursued a distinct SHTF strategy. In this post, I'd like to share our thinking for your consideration.<br /><br />This strategy is built around the notions that a) S <i>will </i>HTF, b) it's very difficult to foresee the actual conditions that will pertain when it does, and c) we may be driven off or separated from every material possession we have accumulated in its advance.<br /><br />Our strategy centers around several key elements:<br /><br /><br /><b>Subsistence Environment </b><br /><br />We have sought out an environment in which it is possible to subsist comfortably with neolithic technologies. Were we to become separated from every material possession, it would be possible to thrive from local resources.<br /><br />This underwrites all the rest with a fail-safer option... under no scenarios in which we remain free and able do we perish for lack of sustenance.<br /><br />An important aspect of this area are abundant water, and wild forage, fish and game. The world is a garden, and likely to become even more so, post collapse.<br /><br />By not relying on domestic plants or animals (to which we are bound from till harvest and beyond), we are less of a target for others.<br /><br /><br /><b>Social Distance</b><br /><br />Our chosen environment is sparsely populated, and requires both knowledge and material resources to venture beyond its sub-urban centers. <br /><br />This buffers us from pandemic SHTF, initial, paroxysms of social unrest and, likely, from predator individuals or groups preying on concentrations of survivors and resources in the towns.<br /><br /><br /><b>Mobility</b><br /><br />&nbsp;"Sailboats are the only vehicles on this planet with unlimited range." (Paraphrased from Tristan Jones).<br /><br />Without access to fossil fuels, we are able to access resources, networks and safe havens across a wide range of possibilities. When a location becomes untenable, we&nbsp; have a chance to shift ourselves and all we possess out of harms way or to where resources are more abundant.<br /><br />If need be, we can shift out of the region, entirely, to any island or coast in any hemisphere.<br /><br /><br /><b>Knowledge Base</b><br /><br />Skills toward a reasonable life post-SHTF are many. We feel that their on-going acquisition not only enhances our future chances on our own terms, but increases our value should we fall into the hands of others. This seems especially true of medical skills under field conditions.<br /><br /><br /><b>Shorter-Term Stores</b><br /><br />We carry enough stores to see us through what seems a reasonable period to tackle post-SHTF learning curves. These especially include the demographic situation (who's left, where they are located, and what is their character), any transition left to master full subsistence, and relocation allowance should our situation seem untenable.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Longer-Term Tools</b><br /><br />These are the material possessions -&nbsp; - which can increase efficiency in meeting our needs.<br /><br />Examples include our sailing vessel and gear, wood and timber working tools, weapons, food processing gear, and books of knowledge not yet mastered.<br /><br />Should we become separated, while it would be inconvenient, we hope it would not be disastrous.<br /><br /><br /><b>Live It Now</b><br /><br />Living the strategy gives us a head start on vital learning curves.<br /><br />It questions while there's time to remedy answers we don't like... How independent are we? Can we move as we like? Can we improvise? How long do particular stores last? Is our tool set adequate? What knowledge do we wish to acquire? What are our priorities?<br /><br />We're perhaps fortunate that our strategy very much embodies how we would like to live, anyway. It's inexpensive, good fun, and a healthy lifestyle.<br /><br />So why wait for S to HTF?<br /><br /><br />*****<br /><br />Two strategies we consciously avoid:<br /><br /><br /><b>Refugee Status</b><br /><br />Many strategies begin and pretty much end with a Bug Out Bag (often geared for 72 hours). When SHTF, the thinking goes, we grab our BOB, pack up the car and git out o' Dodge. Went camping as a young 'un... I'll get by.<br /><br />Problem is 72 hours is just the leading edge of Collapse. Roads clog. Got fuel?<br /><br />Running the gauntlet of a SHTF exodus from any urban center is a daunting prospect. Dare you leave your family to scout resources or terrain? Do you have relationships with resident locals along the way? Can you protect yourself and yours from bandits? Or even desperate Mr. Jones and family, there, who got out with neither BOB nor blanket? How about a hundred of him, or a thousand?<br /><br />But the burning question is, where are you going? And are you prepared to survive - much less thrive - once you get there?<br /><br />Some good SHTF advice: <i>Don't be a refugee. </i><br /><br /><br /><b>Bunker Down</b><br /><br />At the other end of the strategic spectrum - and at first glance more attractive - is the Bunker strategy. This is usually a camouflaged, fortified combination of living quarters and warehouse.<br /><br />Downside is that, camouflage or no, folks have likely heard about it. When push comes to shove, it's going to have its attractions for desperate people. Not being mobile gives plenty of opportunity for figuring out the chinks in your armor. At best - by attrition, if nothing worse - the bastards can grind you down. At worst, they can burn you out and naked into the open.<br /><br />Warehoused stores are finite, and have a shelf-life. Sooner or later, we've got to emerge from our walls and try our hand at gardening, hunting or forage.<br /><br />It seems to us that the sheer investment in this strategy can tempt one into staying on past that moment when, as Willie Nelson says, <i>ya gotta know when to walk away, know when to run.</i> It's gotta be tempting to 'make a stand', rather than to retreat and regroup.<br /><br />Meanwhile, once one does emerge, we'd find ourselves behind on the learning curves for how to live outside the bubble. <br /><br />Theory of warfare generally equates immobility with defeat. What does <i>that </i>tell us?<br /><br />*****<br /><br /><b>The Big, Bad Picture</b><br /><br />Should SHTF on our national or global scale, I expect all domestics nuclear plant to go LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) for want of industrial level support. This means that the Northern Hemisphere is going to be heavily irradiated in short order.<br /><br />Missing from our strategy is relocation to the Southern Hemisphere on the far side of the Equatorial Convergence Zone (hemispheric wind divide). <br /><br />Good idea, but it means trading our present life and friends for a shot at a future life with unknown peoples, among whom we would be refugees. We'd trade a good chunk of what learning curves we've climbed to begin at the bottom.<br /><br />As we age, the potential for return on such an investment is diminishing. If we had made that move as young sailors, maybe. But now?<br /><br />We'll likely accept what comes here, at home.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-22514353473372690032015-04-16T22:54:00.000-07:002015-04-16T22:54:02.303-07:00The Arctic: God's Watching<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WRPpnXdfB2A/VTCRBcAC9dI/AAAAAAAABnc/4rhOS0Znnyg/s1600/Damaged%2BClock.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WRPpnXdfB2A/VTCRBcAC9dI/AAAAAAAABnc/4rhOS0Znnyg/s1600/Damaged%2BClock.jpg" height="416" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><i><b>Hunh, SNORT! Who's to say what's 'normal'?</b></i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>- Climate Change Skeptic who'd just sailed the NW Passage</b></i></span><br /><br /><i><b>NASA graphics are a good reference to fight climate change denial. Of course, sometimes you also have to counter willful blindness and or a simple failure of brain to interpret data coming in through eyes.</b></i><br /><i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>- Robert Scribbler </b></span></i><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b>The Arctic: Slip-Sliding Away</b></span><br /><br />So I'm talking with this guy off a pretty nice boat of modest size. Seems he was working his way down the west coast of Alaska after his <i>Northwest Passage</i>. Yes, that one. The one that claimed so many lives in their vain attempts to make the traverse across the top of the Americas.<br /><br />He wasn't a trailblazer, mind you - more of a retired, upper middle management type. Took a couple of months to motor through, with no problems. Had a great trip. Skipping along a now fairly well trodden path.<br /><br />"Well," says I, glibly, "I guess climate change is good for <i>something</i>."<br /><br />Notice, I didn't even say <i>global warming</i>. Nevertheless, a sudden chill descended upon our conversation. <br /><br />"<i>Hmph</i>. If you <i>believe</i> in that sort of thing!"<br /><br />&nbsp;"Um... you just completed the fabled Northwest Passage."<br /><br />"So?"<br /><br />"So it's been closed for all of human history. Doesn't its being open suggest that climate patterns are deviating from our epoch's norm?"<br /><br />"Hunh!", he snorted, "Who's to say what's 'normal'?"<br /><br />We backed away from one another, each in wary albeit civil retreat. Each of us likely thinking <i>don't try to teach a pig to sing... won't work and it annoys the pig.</i><br /><br />*****<br /><br /><br />Okay. I get that TEOTWAWKI is a stretch for many to swallow. That there might be Limits to Growth. That technology might not ride to the rescue forever.<br /><br />But to deny that the world's climate is warming?<br /><br />I mean, we have cameras in space. They take pictures, send them back and we get to see the Northwest Passage, open from one end to the other. And much, much more. This is not a matter of ideology or propaganda. This is not researchers drumming up grant funding.<br /><br /><i>Who's to say what's normal??</i><br /><br />How about Arctic Peoples who have lived along its frozen shores - and even upon its frozen surface - since time out of mind?<br /><br />Or maybe, by 'normal' he was taking a longer view? MUCH longer? Beyond the tenure of our species?<br /><br />How does one reconcile a belief that the planet is not warming, with one's personal experience of open, Arctic waters?<br /><br />*****<br /><br />The Watchmaker Analogy runs like this:<br /><br />You are traversing a wilderness, where none have gone before. You notice a strange object, lying on the ground, and you pick it up. It's a watch. It shows the correct time, it's second hand marking the beats of your heart.<br /><br />Obviously, this is an artifact. It could not have grown here, being inorganic. It could not have sprung, by chance, into spontaneous existence.<br /><br />We infer a Watchmaker.<br /><br />By analogy, we - finding ourselves enmeshed in a world of fantastic intricacy - are to infer God.<br /><br />So, when we look at the melting face of His great Artifact...<br /><br /><br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rx41G8UCWSw/VQfHx0metUI/AAAAAAAABjk/CMGaZOwLf50/s1600/Arctic%2BIce%2Bthe%2BNew%2BNormal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rx41G8UCWSw/VQfHx0metUI/AAAAAAAABjk/CMGaZOwLf50/s1600/Arctic%2BIce%2Bthe%2BNew%2BNormal.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br />Are we to infer His pleasure?<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-39951297517624525382015-02-05T15:26:00.000-08:002015-02-05T15:26:28.615-08:00Failure Modes in Complex Systems<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4adv8PRH0Zg/VNPi6Rn922I/AAAAAAAABds/PAk7iQYYVDM/s1600/Choo%2BCh%27oopsie!.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4adv8PRH0Zg/VNPi6Rn922I/AAAAAAAABds/PAk7iQYYVDM/s1600/Choo%2BCh'oopsie!.jpg" height="640" width="532" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>For want of a rail?</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /><br /><i><b>Complex systems fail in complex ways. Moreover, the scope of a catastrophic failure of a complex system is commensurate with the scope of the complex system.</b></i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><b>-- J.N. Nielson's post, <a href="https://geopolicraticus.wordpress.com/2011/06/09/complex-systems-and-complex-failure/" target="_blank">Complex Systems and Complex Failures </a></b></i></span></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Failure Modes in Complex Systems</b></span></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Systems lie along a complexity gradient ranging from simple to complex.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">At the extreme simple end, we have simple machines: inclined planes, levers, pulleys and wheels with axles. The middle covers quite a spread, from windmills to sailboats to internal combustion engines to assembly lines to factories to computers.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">We don't often think of it, this way, but living organisms - including ourselves - outpace our most ambitious artifacts. These might be contenders for the extremely complex end. But no. Consider communities of these organisms, ecosystems of these communities, the geo/biosphere in its entirety, with its solar and meteoric inputs.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The global industrial economy fits in there somewhere. Less complex than the terran system as a whole. More complex than any given ecosystem.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The question I'm considering in this post is how different levels react to trauma.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Clearly, you can't take a sledge hammer to many of our artifactual machines. Bust holes in them, and they falter and fail in fairly short order. And up to a certain point, the more complex they are, the harder they fall. That sledge can take a lot of abuse. If the head mushrooms, still usable; if the handle breaks, repair or replaceable. But the computer we're hypothetically bashing? Like Bruce Lee, I could take it out with this pinkie!</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Beyond a certain level of complexity, many to most systems must be resilient, robust, self-repairing, self-healing... all words those which can handle a good deal more than might appear. Most such systems are evolved, though we have begun to learn to apply them to our own creations.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">But there are limits.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">If the resilient mechanisms of a system are overwhelmed - or if key mechanisms fail permanently - the system goes down. Permanently.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Worse, both Complexity and Chaos Theory state that the failure of complex systems is inevitable. </span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Internal Failure Modes </b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Three general modes can bring a system down from within. I'll informally call them <i>node</i>, <i>runaway </i>and <i>domino failure modes</i>.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Node failure</b></i> is deep doo-doo. Nodes are sub-systems upon which the function of many other aspects of system functionality depend. A node goes down, and all dependent, 'downstream' sub-systems fail with it. Worse, nodes are often inter-dependent. Failure of one node can spread to others in a process called <i>contagion</i>; essentially a critical case of the domino mode mentioned below.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">A human health example of node failure is ventricular fibrillation. The heart, for whatever reason, begins to spasm out-of-sync, and fails to pump sufficient blood flow. If it can be brought back into sync (via defibrillation techniques), a full recovery is possible. But if not - and the heart fails permanently - all other bodily systems fail in short order for lack of blood perfusion.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The power grid is a node within a modern, industrial economy. It falters, and if not brought relatively quickly back on line, all dependent systems - banking, communications, IT, etc. - exceed their back-up arrangements and fail.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Runaway failure</b></i> occurs when positive feedback - that which ramps a system into more 'extreme' states - is insufficiently damped by governance mechanisms. These counter positive feedback loops with negative feedback. This can happen even in an otherwise healthy system. Typically, a system in runaway mode will suffer increasingly wild oscillations until a vital node gives way.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">&nbsp; </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">&nbsp;"Galloping Gertie" - the first <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tacoma_Narrows_Bridge_%281940%29#Cause_of_the_collapse" target="_blank">Tacoma Narrows Bridge</a>, which dramatically tore itself apart in 1940 - is an example of runaway failure. The process, described as "phenomenon in which several <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degrees_of_freedom_%28mechanics%29" title="Degrees of freedom (mechanics)">degrees of freedom</a> of a structure become coupled in an unstable oscillation" is very hard to rule out of any complex system, whether designed or evolved. Degrees of freedom, couplings and even initial oscillations are extremely difficult to predict or detect until well underway. Complexity guarantees that.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">A prediction of Peak Everything theory is that market feedback cycles will begin to oscillate wildly in post-peak environments. Supply (particularly of energy / fossil fuels) in post peak situations has plenty of room to fluctuate in response to demand. Demand, however, while driven upward by exponential growth of any market component, is coupled with forces of 'demand destruction' (loss of those willing or able to pay higher prices). Demand fluctuates more and more wildly, with production attempting to follow jerkily in its wake. Both supply and demand 'players' begin to drop from the field as market conditions exceed their ability to cope. Add in risky financial 'instruments', and the finance node is threatened. Banks begin to fail...</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Domino Failure</b></i> is sequential failures radiating outward from a single trigger event among dependent elements (again, even if they are otherwise functioning 'normally'). This is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Want_of_a_Nail" target="_blank">"For want of a nail... ...the Kingdom was lost"</a> mode. Failure of a small element can initiate such cascading failures. It may 'burn out', or it may take down a node (see Doo-Doo, above).</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Again, the power grid is an example (see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_outage#Blackout_inevitability_and_electric_sustainability" target="_blank">Blackout Inevitability and Electric Sustainability</a>). In the case of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_blackout_of_2003" target="_blank">2003 Northeast Blackout</a>, it all began with a software bug. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_blackout_of_2003#Sequence_of_events" target="_blank">sequence of events</a> cascaded until large swathes of Canada and New England were without power.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%9308" target="_blank">Global Financial Crisis of 2007-8</a> is another example. The (predicted) burst of the housing bubble set dominoes falling in all directions, some foreseen and others not. Analysis continues to this day. Unfortunately, so do many of the practices which led to the crisis, and the bursting fracking bubble may well give us another shot at total disaster along similar lines.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />Again, dependencies within a complex system are extremely difficult to map, much less predict. Those who correctly predict the broad outlines of disaster are typically ignored both before ('pessimists on the lunatic fringe') and after ('who knew?' and 'hindsight quarterbacks'). So it goes.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>External Failure Modes</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Systems can fail for 'external' reasons, as well.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Blunt trauma failure</b></i> is something I hesitate to call a 'mode', though any system is susceptible to it. Here, something big and bad happens - a nuclear exchange, for example - that blows a hole in important fabric. It may be random - as from solar flare - or targeted - as in ICBMs or sabotage. Blunt trauma can activate any of the other modes, or merely destroy the system as a whole.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Running out of steam failure</b></i> happens when the resources upon which a system runs fall below some necessary threshold. In particular, energy, space and material resources. Run low of any essential, and the whole thing winds down. Run out of any essential and the whole thing grinds to a halt. This type of failure follows a trajectory (curve) which can range from 'Seneca's Cliff' to the 'Staircase Descent'. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Timescales of Failure</b></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Whether total, systemic failure is 'catastrophic' (my school) or 'catabolic' (Greer, Kunstler, <i>et al</i>), I suspect is a matter of the timescale over which failure is viewed.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The graph is similar. A long period of growth is followed by a relatively shorter period of decline or 'collapse' (Senaca's Cliff).</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">For myself, I tend to think of high to low collapse occurring within a single lifetime as both <i>catastrophic</i> and probable. Our current situation has been collapsing - by my estimation - for decades, now, and will accelerate to whatever bottom very soon.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Yet both means and trajectory look very similar, whether they play over a shorter or longer term. From the perspective of the individual, a lifetime is all one has. Generations may experience the long descent. Cultures may experience the rise and fall of civilizations. Our species has experienced ages - the paleo- and neo-lithic, bronze, iron, industrial and information ages.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">From a long enough perspective, the rise and (presumed) fall of agricultural civilizations over roughly 10K years - is but a blip. Look close enough and any process plays out in gradual, slow-mo. Thus, whether collapse is fast or slow is a subjective matter.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Whether it plays out within our or our children's lifetimes, however, is a practical matter. One prepares for 'contractions' differently than from SHTF.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Ya lays yer money and ya takes yer chances.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-88882470097331281772015-01-15T12:06:00.000-08:002015-01-16T10:37:27.377-08:00Sailing the APOCALYPSE: A Review<br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Lt_nmQFlrLs/VLgZo1fQr7I/AAAAAAAABcQ/PJhwXWIupAQ/s1600/Sailing%2BApocalypse%2BCover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Lt_nmQFlrLs/VLgZo1fQr7I/AAAAAAAABcQ/PJhwXWIupAQ/s1600/Sailing%2BApocalypse%2BCover.jpg" height="640" width="416" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Available on <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Sailing-Apocalypse-Misadventure-at-Sea-ebook/dp/B00QOK1M3O/ref=sr_1_cc_1?s=aps&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1421350703&amp;sr=1-1-catcorr&amp;keywords=sailing+the+apocalypse" target="_blank">Amazon</a> in hard-copy or Kindle</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b><u>Sailing the <i>Apocalypse</i>: A Misadventure at Sea</u> <span style="font-size: small;">by Scott B. Williams</span></b></span><br /><br /><br />SETTING: Waterways of SE USA in our present times of impending, but not yet catastrophic Collapse.<br /><br />STORY: A newly formed family under the (mis?)guidance of Terry Bailey - Doomer / Prepper - builds APOCALYPSE, a 46ft Wharram Catamaran (great choice, sloppy execution), and bugs out while the buggin' is good. <br /><br />Events are told through the eyes of twelve year old Robbie. Along for the ride are his (mostly) 'whatever-he-says' Mother, and otherwise-occupied, teen half-sister. Along the way, they acquire a Mentor, of sorts, in the form of an easy going, aging Hippy.<br /><br />STORY ARC (spoiler alert!): Downward spiral.<br /><br />*****<br /><br /><u>Sailing the Apocalypse</u> is a cautionary tale of what I think of as 'dysprepsia'... a syndrome to which we in the Choir are prone.<br /><br />Terry Bailey believes much as we do (the Choir, that is... I'm assuming in this review that you're a fellow Doomer / Prepper, familiar with the general outlook and its vocabulary). <br /><br />He believes that S is about to HTF. That the time to bug out is before it does. He has made some solid, informed choices and acted upon them, investing himself fully. Each of these identify him (and his family) as increasingly rare birds.<br /><br />But things do not go well, and the 'why' is the cautionary aspect.<br /><br />Terry lacks humility. He is seething with contempt for others (rather than empathy), which expresses itself in rants, bullying and manipulation. He is the patriarch of his tribe, which alienates his family. This in turn impairs teamwork, and supresses and disincentivizes their best efforts.<br /><br />&nbsp;He can neither recognize nor admit to his mistakes, and therefore cannot learn from them.&nbsp; Nor can he adapt, whether to new information or consequences of mis-information or mis-steps. One has the sense that he has skimmed from excellent resources, but not absorbed their content. He overrates his (presumed) experience, and undervalues training and the steep slope of the learning curve.<br /><br />A little knowledge is a dangerous thing...<br /><br />*****<br /><br />I found it to be somewhat queasy reading.<br /><br />As a confirmed Doomer who bugged out on a sailboat, years ago, this shoe fits too well. I, too, am prone to rant with a tinge of smug and a supercilious veiw of 'the sheep'. To regard shoreside society as dismally stuck in ruts that will drag us all over the edge. To see complacency, venality and power plays conspiring to whittle away at whatever small freedoms are left.<br /><br />I FEEL Terry's pain!<br /><br />But none of us know how our 'best laid plans' will fare... whether they will protect us and ours for another round, or whether they will founder under the thrash of our toppled giant. We must all take our best shot from a position of limited personal and physical resources. I believe we must persuade as many as we can to prepare... if not for Collapse, at least for Trouble. At the very least to step aside and let us prepare ourselves.<br /><br />Humility, Williams reminds us, is an adaptive trait.<br /><br />*****<br /><br />Scott B. Williams is one of the best of us.<br /><br />He's an expert in the theory and practice of prepper / survival concepts and techniques, and has been walking the walk for decades. In other words, he wrote Terry Bailey from the competent position of knowing exactly where his weaknesses and errors lie. <br /><br />This contrasts with other works I've read, where the author unintentionally projects their own ignorance through a protagonist who, by all rights, could never have shouldered his bottomless BugOutBag, much less improvise his Ham Radio from that toaster.<br /><br />Terry's bumbling is the conscious artifact of an author who knows much better... a moral tale from an educated pen. <br /><br /><u>Sailing the Apocalypse</u> is the opening&nbsp; chapter of an ongoing series. From it's pages, one may learn a great deal - both from example and counter-example - from an author with authority.<br /><br />I am hoping that we will see one or both of two main developments in the continuing adventure: <br /><br />A) Terry will come around... as extreme as he is, I'm rooting for him.<br /><br />B) Robbie will mature, and through him we may watch his opinions firming, learn with him as his skills and knowledge and - most important - approaches expand. I want to ride along as he debriefs his experiences!<br /><br />I'd also love to see - through either path - more of the whys and wherefores. How do these decisions link up into suites of skills? How does one start from here to there? This novel is already a good start, but I know that Williams has plenty to add. <br /><br />At present, <u>Sailing the Apocalypse</u> could be read as an argument <i>against </i>everything Terry believes.<br /><br />Mr. Williams, will you save the baby from the bathwater in your next installments?<br /><br />*****<br /><br />I hate the critical part of a review, constructive though it be. But here goes... a quibble:<br /><br />I felt character development could be improved. <br /><br />It's a challenge to funnel development through a single character - especially a 12 year old. But each character's reactions should reflect a consistant personality. At times, reactions seemed to reflect internal inconsistencies (which were neither presented nor explored as internal conflict). Vocabulary, voice and depth - especially in Robbie's narration - seemed at times uneven.<br /><br /><i>Terry Bailey:</i> He's our guy, but so often lost in contemptuous rant, and so "I can't be told nuffin'" that it derails our natural empathy for him. So far, there's no backstory to explain him or soften his impact. He's a tragic character, at present - hoist by his own petard - but without earning much of the sympathy that would pull us into his plight. I want to see more of his human side, not just arrogance and anger. There are hints that he's not entirely who he seems... <br /><br /><i>Robbie (Narrator):</i> Lots of potential, here. Smart boy with a big dose of common sense. Alive to wonders en route. At present, though, he's a mostly blank slate. He often (rightly) wonders whether his step-dad's omniscience is as advertised, but often, his common sense aligns with the herd (if nobody else thinks this way, how bad can it be?). So far, the herd has the edge. Will we see him start to do his own thinking? Form an outlook that can stand up against both his step-father and popular opinion?<br /><br /><i>Linda (the Mother):</i> Here's an important character who stays mostly in the background. She only gets to speak for herself a few times, and then it's (almost entirely) in reaction to Terry. We don't get to see much at all of her relationship with the others. Who is she? Why is she so passive (until a certain kind of push comes to a certain kind of shove)? Does she have any hopes or dreams of her own? What does she see in Terry (not to disparage, but why are they drawn to each other)?<br /><i><br />Janie (Linda's daughter):</i> Janie is mostly a facade of teenage boredom and dissatisfaction, as one might expect. But, if you've ever known or been a teenager, you know that there's a lot more going on below the surface. What? Is she as shallow as the Rant would have us believe? What's her vision of her own future, if any?<br /><br /><i>Dean (Hippy Mentor):</i> No quibble here. Deftly portrayed in concise strokes. Hoping to read more of him!<br /><br />*****<br /><br />The beauty of a series is that there's more of it, and Williams has definitely set the hook.<br /><br />I feel that more of the same would be too much. I've gotten the picture, now, and the dose is just right.<br /><br />I hope - and have reason to expect - that this is an opening movement. That Williams is preparing us for what promises to be a moving exploration of the challenges facing we who sail our lonely - and often beleaguered course.<br /><br />If he can pull it off, I'm hoping for our genre's version of Theroux's <u>Mosquito Coast</u>. Or even <u>Captain Ron</u>.<br /><br />I'm on-board to find out!<br /><br />Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-13455949938398478402015-01-09T22:44:00.001-08:002015-01-09T22:44:41.245-08:00Spooky...<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7LOPwNhgG_Y/VLC8mKy6VVI/AAAAAAAABbQ/YU5muZ11B6k/s1600/Petri%2BPlanet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7LOPwNhgG_Y/VLC8mKy6VVI/AAAAAAAABbQ/YU5muZ11B6k/s1600/Petri%2BPlanet.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Planet Petri Dish</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Spooky...</b></span></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Since Y2K, nothing with an associated date has concerned me more than any other. But this year... I'm picking up a <i>vibe</i>.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Nothing particular stands out.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">We're skittering along the usual up and down slopes at accelerating speed. Oscillations are getting wilder, but we've grown to expect that. Abundance is slipping away from us, but there's still (nearly) half of everything left, isn't there?&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">All this has seemed critical for decades - a small interval in history. No particular reason to think it might go bust <i>this </i>year.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">But something's in the wind...</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Many observers who've never committed themselves to a prediction are restless. Lowing and milling in our courses. Spooked.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Many who've reliably cheerled the the team with rah-rahs of <i>Growth! Excelsior! Never better, thank you very much!</i> are entering 2015 with the jitters. A dim perception of trouble brewing is coming to a simmer.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Could be the return of nuclear posturing among the heavy hitters. Could be the emergence of Ebola (still a Level IV pathogen), and it's potential escape into the wider Third World. Could be the death throes of American Empire. Could be the spectre of Islamic fundamentalist unrest threatening the heart of Middle East oil kingdoms. Could be the financial meltdown threatened by fiat money, global debt, untamed derivatives, shift of reserve currency, etc.. Could be 'climate change', from CO2 or jacked up on perma-frost methane release. Could be any number of unmonitored threats stemming from fouling our petri dish.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The sense - or realization - that we&nbsp; have lost control - is waxing pandemic. Global symptoms of Collapse, with which we've lived our entire lives, have grown feverish and are nearing convulsive intensity.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In terms of <i><u>Limits to Growth</u></i> type projections - a graphic of which banners this blog - we are just now leaving the give-or-take margins of uncertainty flanking the cusp of our arc. One or both feet are now firmly planted on the slippery slope of the catastrophic Seneca Cliff (or catabolic Long Descent, if you prefer).</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">What does this mean for ourselves?</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Time to double-check our preparations. Gather our Tribe. Get our affairs in order. Make our peace. Maybe say our good-byes. None of this can hurt.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It could be just another year of everything getting worse for most folks...</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">But could be feelin' the tremblor, before the Big One, that puts the birds to flight. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-70134847956033742822014-10-28T21:04:00.000-07:002015-01-05T20:15:02.827-08:00It IS Different This Time<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AMqa13LxF8Q/VEspxasGlvI/AAAAAAAABTI/oUR037uMvws/s1600/Fast%2BSlow%2BNo%2BGraph.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AMqa13LxF8Q/VEspxasGlvI/AAAAAAAABTI/oUR037uMvws/s1600/Fast%2BSlow%2BNo%2BGraph.gif" height="334" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This is a poor graph, I admit... scales to left an right of the 'peak' are not consistent.<br />My Bad.</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hduOxS6vQbg/VEsoFt6ud0I/AAAAAAAABS8/BfL1YaSqk08/s1600/Fast%2BSlow%2BNo%2BGraph.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hduOxS6vQbg/VEsoFt6ud0I/AAAAAAAABS8/BfL1YaSqk08/s1600/Fast%2BSlow%2BNo%2BGraph.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>The overfamiliar cry of “but it’s different this time!” is popular, it’s comforting, but it’s also irrelevant. Of course it’s different this time; it was different every other time, too. Neolithic civilizations limited to one river valley and continental empires with complex technologies have all declined and fallen in much the same way and for much the same reasons.</b></span><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>-- From <a href="http://thearchdruitreport.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">TheArchdruidReport </a>by John Michael Greer</b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Here, he's speaking of 'Cornucopians' but same goes for 'Doomers'</b></span></span></div><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">It IS Different This Time</span></b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Let me start by stating that I am a fan of the writings of John Michael Greer, the Grand Archdruid of the <a href="http://aoda.org/" target="_blank">Ancient Order of Druids in America</a>, and avidly follow his blog, <a href="http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/">thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com</a>. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I find his thinking and presentation clear, his knowledge of history wide-ranging and that his ruminations run deep. He never fails to widen my horizons, nor to stimulate a flurry of fact-checking (almost all of which holds up, btw... rare exceptions are subject to interpretation), cross-reference and further readings.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">My cup o' tea!</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So it is with the greatest respect that I venture to differ with one of his central assumptions; that&nbsp;<i> nothing is different this time.</i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Greer proposes an explanation of <a href="http://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf" target="_blank">How Civilizations Fall: A theory of Catabolic Collapse:</a></span> <br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">At a certain, peak moment, an ascendant culture's accumulating <i>assets </i>become too expensive to maintain with available resources. Some assets are converted to <i>waste</i> (let go) in a period of <i>contraction</i>, beginning a long period of descent.&nbsp;</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">'Assets' everything from institutions, mores, hierarchy and education to infrastructure to soil fertility. 'Waste' may involve the overthrow of dynasties, debasing of currencies and crumbling or abandoned infrastructure to retreat, defeat and/or revolution.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Contractions are typically (though not necessarily) chaotic, involuntary and violent.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Following each contraction, a temporarily affordable equilibrium is reached at a lower level</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">, and things even out for a while, with perhaps partial recovery. But, so long as no new resources become available, the cycle repeats in a downward trend, following a generally stair-step trajectory.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">This theory arguably accounts for the (rise and) fall trajectories of <i>historical </i>civilizations.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The question arises<i>, does this theory predict the course of our own collapse, or are things different this time?</i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Greer, himself, is dismissive of the notion, and considers our civilization to be <i>fundamentally </i>the same as all its predecessors. In his view, it will collapse, and follow a similar, stair-step trajectory of slow descent into coming Dark Ages. &nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-pink-slip-for-progress-fairy.html" target="_blank">Here</a> is an evocative sample he provides of the narrative one might expect for our future Long Descent, analogous to those of the past.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I, myself, believe the are <i>fundamental </i>differences between our present and historical cases, and that the collapse <i>will </i>be catastrophic (I guess that makes me a 'Doomer').</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">&nbsp; </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">A contraction can only 'fetch up' at the next lower step while its survivors possess assets which are both sufficient and <i>viably intact </i>at a lower level of function.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">To fundamentally change our situation from those past in ways that make us vulnerable non-catabolic, catastrophic collapse, there must be non-trivial differences which render our fall-back assets insufficient and/or <i>non</i>-viable.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So what's new? Here's a <i>minimal </i>list, for starters:</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><br /><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The Global Economy</span></b><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">For the first time in human history, the economies of the world are fused into a single, global dynamic, utterly dependent on continuity and collectively continuous growth to maintain its vital functions.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Production is widely distributed, with markets and essential components found half a world away from one another. Energy flows ditto. Communications are networked via surface, sub-surface and satellite connections.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Complex systems - such as the global economy - are <i>chaotic</i>. That is to say, resistant to successful modelling, subject to the Butterfly Effect, strange attractors, abrupt phase shifts.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">They tend to be <i>robust</i>, so long as a critical set of vital <i>nodes </i>(aka <i>hubs</i>) continue to function. But, should one of these fail, a series of cascading failures can be (with very high likelihood) set in motion which destabilize the system, leading to a system <i>crash</i>.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Add to this the effects of economic dependency on unlimited growth within the closed system&nbsp; of planet earth. All growth is exponential.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Until it isn't.</span><br /><br /><br /><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Technology</span></b><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Unique to the modern era, our civilization is supported by a suite of interdependent technologies which, in the event of sufficient interruption, can neither be 're-booted' nor function in a contracted environment.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Technical expertise has become ever more specialized, with the effect of rendering the implementation and maintenance of all core systems a vast, team effort. At the same time, these teams are ever more dependent on the tools they service, and the environment in which those services function.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Production has become ever more dependent on inter-linked technologies which are themselves far beyond the reach of the human artisan. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">A power grid is one example.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Power grids distribute necessary electrical power for virtually all aspects of modern civilization. This includes their own, continued operation. Communication and control of the grid itself depend on some unknown but considerable level of grid function.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Should even momentary, <a href="http://energyblog.nationalgeographic.com/2013/10/25/american-blackout-four-major-real-life-threats-to-the-electric-grid/" target="_blank">grid-wide failure</a> occur, reboot (black start) is a delicate matter whose success is not assured. Should the down period extend, every hour decreases the chances of a successful reboot, as support systems (such as parts deliveries) degrade for lack of power.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Other, codependent technologies would fail as well, further disrupting reboot efforts.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">To reconstruct the grid at a lower level of function</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">, or even break it into gridlets,</span> would require massive changes, by specialists, to existing soft-, hard- and firmware, unsupported by grid power. Not a chewing gum and baling wire operation.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">That's the point.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Food and Farmers</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Historically, even the most technologically advanced civilizations were built on a preponderant <i>majority </i>of farmers and countryfolk whose tools, methods, seedstocks and know-how were able (by and large) to withstand the upheavals of catabolic collapse. Each tread in their civilization's long descent relied on those assets.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Our codependent, global economy <i>cum </i>civilization, in contrast - through a succession of green revolutions which put world food production on a petroleum footing, hybridized most primary seedstocks, mechanized virtually all farming tasks, encouraged monoculture and long distance transport - has fundamentally, albeit temporarily, altered the historical relationship between food producers and civilization.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Should the current, interlocked, computerized and satellited systems of fuel / power, transport and finance fail for any extended period at all, current crops will fail and/or languish in the field for lack of labor, fertilizer and pesticide and transport, far from their markets. Hybrids revert to diminished parent stocks. Irrigation systems fail.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Especially in the First World, farmers themselves will face malnutrition, even in the midst of monocrop abundance. Even where (non-hybrid) seedstock is on hand, the interval between seed and harvest is a long one, with initial output vastly diminished.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Farms are no longer subsistent. Farmerfolk have not preserved, by and large, the country skills that once saw themselves and others through each round of contracted equilibrium. The ways and means lie, for the most part, some three to four generations past in the First World, and considerable losses in the remainder.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">We can no more return directly from present practice to viable, organic farming than peasant farmers of the past could return directly to viable hunter-gathering. The tools and skill-sets are different, and the learning curve that separates them, vast.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">And when city folk go hungry, farmlands no longer spread around their walls.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Population Mass and Urban Concentration</b></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The planet's population of some 7 billion+ human beings is now </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.newgeography.com/content/003249-what-a-half-urban-world" target="_blank">half-urban</a> (54%).</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">By contrast, 1800 saw roughly 1 billion souls (roughly double world population at the height of Rome, and less than presently live in China or India) of whom only 3% were urban dwellers.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Another way to put it: in 1800, 97 persons embedded in a rural economy supported 3 persons embedded in an urban economy. Now, less than 3 rurals support those 3 urbans.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In the event of systemic disruption, sheer weight of numbers will exacerbate any collapse via resource exhaustion / pressure and competition by the living and putrefaction of the dead.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Cities are, for the most part, serviced by long chain and Just In Time logistics. Without constant resupply, limited food-on-hand is quickly consumed. Two choices: fight for what's left, or fan out into adjacent countryside (which is not necessarily farmland).</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">My guess is that the cities will first implode, then explode.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Much of the world's core business is conducted within, or orchestrated from cities (finance, ports, fuel terminals, communications, etc.) . They go down, and world commerce goes with them.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As the cities tear themselves and surroundings apart, another indisputably novel factor comes into play.<b>&nbsp;</b></span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Resource Depletion</b></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Numerous surface and near-surface resources - in particular fossil fuels and metals - have been extracted well past the reach of even marginally lower levels of technology and economy.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Generally speaking, EROEI for what remains is <i>presently </i>'uneconomic' despite all our current material and procedural advantages. If dilute concentrations (low yield deposits or tailings) are not affordably recoverable, they are in practice unavailable<b>.</b></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Below some unknown but certain point, contractions must needs exist within a salvage/scavenge mineral budget, with entropic losses at each recycle. Fossil fuels aren't recyclable, and would cease to be an option.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In addition, energy requirements for such recycling - absent accessible, concentrated energy - make industrial scales unlikely. Furthermore, in such a transition, industrial infrastructure would require re-tooling on a massive scale; requiring energy and a highly functional industrial environment, neither of which - at least below the point mentioned above - would pertain.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Nuclear Situation</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The northern hemisphere is now liberally salted with nuclear reactors.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Without constant, specialized service, high-tech resupply and continuous flow of coolant (water + grid power or fuel), the <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2011/03/110323-fukushima-japan-new-nuclear-plant-design/" target="_blank">majority of them</a> will undergo irremediable LOCAs (Loss Of Coolant Accidents), releasing radioactive debris into widespread air- and watersheds. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>No </i>prior civilization has faced an analogous pitfall in the course of its descent.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">*****</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Greer's theory of Catabolic Collapse posits collapse as inevitable, and here, we agree.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Its prediction of stair-step, long descent, however, relies on the assumption that nothing <i>fundamental </i>has changed in the current civilization. That the future is analogous to the past.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">But, if any of the above-listed considerations are true (along with others one might add), <i>it IS different this time</i>. Fundamentally, non-trivially different.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">A stair-step, Long Descent may still be possible. <i>&nbsp;</i></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>If </i>vital technologies and services can be kept running continuously through several cycles of contraction, they <i>might </i>be incrementally curtailed. Eventually, by this means, they could reach the lower-tech levels that would allow them the luxury of intermittency and eventual, sub-catastrophic demise.&nbsp; Populations <i>might</i> incrementally reduce, and rural assets <i>might </i>regain ascendency. Nuclear plants <i>might </i>be safely decommissioned and their wastes stored for long-term, low to zero maintenance.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">But, without a widely distributed set of assets which can be reconfigured and simplified under extreme duress; with a glut of vulnerable populations with no immediate means of support beyond the functioning global economy; without some implemented, passive alternative to nuclear plant coolant systems... well... Humpty Dumpty sits on a wall.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Should a trigger event initiate irrecoverable, cascading failures in a core system - the pillars of our civilization become dominoes. And the next step downward from here is so spaced as to ensure a tumble.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It appears to me that - rather than an inevitable repetition of historical process - the Long Descent is but one, rather remote possibility we now face among a crowd of abrupt, catastrophic likelihoods.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Watch that first step... it's a <i>doozy!&nbsp;</i></span><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>NOTE: The problem with growth - doubling every so often - is that ONE doubling period prior to full saturation of whatever medium, the cup only appears half full... all of human history and we've only used up </i>half <i>of what's available. Especially the easy access, low hanging fruit.</i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>For the first time, it appears that we are at - or past - the halfway point.</i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>Will it take all of historical time to use up the remainder? Or merely one more doubling period, currently estimated to be within the half-century range?</i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>My guess is that - in this sense - the collapse of civilizations is more logarithmic than catabolic.</i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>&nbsp;</i></span>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-7195307810737108282014-10-22T19:18:00.000-07:002014-10-22T19:39:46.159-07:00Ebola: DON'T PANIC!! is a Panic Response<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="http://halehighschool.info/pics/pandemic.jpg" class="decoded" src="http://halehighschool.info/pics/pandemic.jpg" height="330" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Contemplating His World Tour</b><br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Image source: http://halehighschool.info/pics/pandemic.jpg</span></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>&nbsp; </i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>...The systematic, rational way to control [an] outbreak, [is] by defining its outer borders and letting the pyre of cases inside burn to completion....</b></i></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">--From Daily Beast: <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/21/doctors-without-borders-hits-ebola-breaking-point.html" target="_blank">Doctors Without Borders Hits Ebola Breaking point</a> by Abby Haglage and Kent Sepkowitz... excellent article announcing end of contact tracing in three countries where ebola is epidemic. </span></b></i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Ebola: DON'T PANIC!!</span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;"></span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;"> is a Panic Response</span></b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As a sailor and 'prepper', I agree that <i>panic </i>never helped nobody. As an </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">EMS/VFD/SAR volunteer, I'm committed to the idea that, when 9-1-1 is called, help should be on the way.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The recent media trend to headline <i>DON'T PANIC!!</i> strikes me as pollyanna; misrepresenting and belittling a clear and present danger. Shouting it at the top of their considerable lungs strikes me as a form of panic.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It is (by and large) true that the <i>present </i>danger to the USA and other first world nations is small. The response here (contact tracing, quarantine, monitoring, training and protocol upgrades) is proceeding about as well as one might expect. <i>Limited </i>incursions are presently containable and contained.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Yet the threat from ebola is growing exponentially, and virtually unchecked.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea are raging out-of-control. Aid from 'advanced' nations remains too little, too late. Crucially, the number of healthcare workers on hand - both indigenous and extra-national - are too few for effective containment measures.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The tipping point is when contact-tracing is no longer possible.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Contact tracing is a fundamental tool for epidemic containment: identifying ALL victims of a disease, ALL the persons with whom they've had contact, and ALL the persons with whom those persons have had contact. Monitoring and/or quarantine and/or care follow as warranted. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">This is the means by which Nigeria and Senegal contained their recent, small outbreaks, with Spain and the US hopefully having done so as well.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">But exponential growth is defeating us.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Not only are cases of EVD (Ebola Virus Disease) growing exponentially in the three countries with ongoing ebola epidemic, but this exponential growth generates a doubly exponential <i>explosion </i>in numbers of contacts. &nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org/onetime.cfm" target="_blank">Doctors Without Borders</a> (aka Medecines Sans Frontieres (MSF)) and their colleagues on the ground have reached <i>the limit of their ability to conduct effective contact tracing</i>.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Shit is Hitting The Fan.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"But the First World is responding!", bleats the First World, "We have 4000 ebola beds planned for early November! They only have, what? Three hundred and fifty, now?"</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Of course, at this writing that already falls short of <i>current </i>cases by about 15%, the number of which are expected to double by early November. Thanks a lot, First World. Oh, by the way... do you happen to have the necessary thousands of doctors, nurses and other trained health technicians ready and willing to volunteer?</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"Um, no. They're standing ready to safe-guard the Homelands, though!"</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So here's the problem:</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As a local population of ebola infected persons grows (the three countries mentioned will do, for starters), the virus is presented with exponentially more opportunities to mutate and spread into new populations (spillover), and is exponentially harder to contain. Contact tracing becomes more difficult at a <i>double</i> exponential rate.</span><br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>Exponential / Double Exponential Note: In Nigeria's outbreak, a single patient infected 18 others (exponential growth in two 'generations'). Successful contact tracing involved some 19,000 interviews - a thousand-fold increase over cases (double exponential growth). Success is only possible in low number outbreaks, no matter the sophistication of the health-care systems involved.</i></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>Mutation Note: Any viral replicator is selected by suppression efforts for strains which find ways to replicate in the face of those efforts. Going airborne (considered unlikely) is only one of many possibilities for a virus to enhance its reproduction success.</i></span></blockquote><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As the threat of infection increases, many who are able to do so will flee the 'hot zone' by any means available - legal and monitored or not. As local government fails, there will be less and less to hinder them. A certain percentage of these refugees will already be infected, and may well be presymptomatic. Spillover into geographic and transport neighborhoods becomes exponentially more likely with increasing numbers.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Those living in poverty - around two thirds the global population, and inter-mixed in large numbers in every country - are especially vulnerable to contagion, and most often lack even basic health-care. From ebola's point of view, this means plenty of prospects, with avenues into every nation. An empire upon which the sun never sets.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">We are presently giving ebola a virtually free run in three, populous West African countries. In a few, short months, outbreak has become epidemic, with pandemic a very short step away. Doubling every few weeks, how many doubling periods before 'critical mass' is achieved? Have we crossed that threshold, already?</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">With the exception of Cuba - who's response, proportional to their economy should shame and inspire we who are far wealthier - <a href="https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org/onetime.cfm" target="_blank">MSF</a>, and WHO, our response has been token and far below the needful. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Ebola is inherently destabilizing through direct and indirect effects.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Actual ebola, containment tactics and fear of ebola affect economies across the board, from extraction of raw materials to the delivery of goods and services.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It is deadly when left to its own devices. To attend to those stricken and counter its spread requires boat-loads of money and man-power. Restrictions on movements impede the flow of commerce. Illness and death sap labor.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">All this sends economic shock waves reverberating through local and global economies. If in fact these economies <i>are </i>fragile, how much shock can they stand? How long can 'modern health-care systems' stand with a partially or fully crippled economy?</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">If ebola goes pandemic (spreads to other regions of the Third World and/or beyond), how long can we maintain our isolation? </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Shouting <i>DON'T PANIC!!</i> in the penthouse of a building whose basement is on fire is a panic response. <i>Come on, people, let's put this thing out!</i> is not. Near the beginning of a conflagration, it's relatively easy; later on, the <i>best </i>you can hope for is a controlled burn.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So, let's stop shouting <i>PANIC / DON'T PANIC!!</i>&nbsp; <i>Don't</i> panic<i> </i>and send immediate, massive help to West Africa.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>Now</i>, before the whole damn neighborhood burns down.</span><br /><br /><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="http://iahealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/who-alert-system-300x280.jpg" class="decoded" src="http://iahealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/who-alert-system-300x280.jpg" height="372" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Despite arrow shown, we are currently at <i>Level 5</i> for ebola...<br />outbreaks in US and Spain have not been 'community level'.</b></td></tr></tbody></table>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-30805001865202792062014-10-08T11:56:00.000-07:002014-10-23T12:38:14.874-07:00Ebola Chaos<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EXooTlLLJtQ/VDV4RXMhzII/AAAAAAAABR0/BjdbFwuqRmU/s1600/Ebola%2BChaos.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EXooTlLLJtQ/VDV4RXMhzII/AAAAAAAABR0/BjdbFwuqRmU/s1600/Ebola%2BChaos.jpg" height="640" width="470" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>I Ching ideogram for Chaos vs. Ebola Virus Virion</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>CoINcidence???</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Ebola Chaos</b></span></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Ebola is certainly one of many clouds on our collective event horizon. A cloud that is darkening, and a wind that is rising, exponentially.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I'm intrigued by the I Ching, Chaos and the Chinese ideogram and associations with chaos. Thus, when I saw this image of the Ebola filovirus, them li'l hairs at the back of my neck stood up. Not that that <i>means</i> anything.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">A few, epidemiological cautions:</span><br /><ul><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The USofA has a <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2014/10/even-before-ebola-hospitals-struggled-with-infection-control/381773/" target="_blank">poor track record</a> of limiting the spread of infections within its health-care system (e.g., staphococcus among several others).</span></li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Full 'entitlement' to medical care has yet to be established, which means that many persons - despite alarming symptoms - defer treatment until the last possible moment. This renders them at a remove from the present, medical system.<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Homelessness is high, leaving a large segment of the population both at higher risk and 'under-the-radar'.</span></li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Drug use is high, putting another segment at higher risk. 'Crack houses' are perfect incubators for an aspiring disease.&nbsp; </span></li></ul><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It's possible that Ebola <i>is </i>containable, at least if it fails to mutate in ways which make it easier to spread. But if containable, it will likely be so in West Africa. And prospects look bleak.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Ominously, it already possesses one of the prime ingredients for pandemic; a relatively lengthy period of asymptomatic proliferation in those who've contracted it. It is a relatively small step to become more readily transmissible during this asymptomatic period.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The more we 'lean' on the virus (via quarantine, antibody-rich plasma transfusions and other interventions), the more we 'select for' variants which exhibit early transmissibility.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Airborne is a larger step, though <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-20341423" target="_blank">Canadian evidence</a> suggests that a near relative is at least partially airborne (<a href="http://www.infowars.com/canadian-health-agency-deletes-info-on-airborne-spread-of-ebola/" target="_blank">current outbreak handling of this info</a>). Already, ebola protocols specify mask <i>and respirator</i> for coughing patients, suggesting that, if the patient is coughing (expelling droplets), ebola is <i>de facto</i> airborne.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">From here on, it's a matter of refinement.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The public is being advised against 'hysteria' and panic (good advice, whatever the facts). The assertion is that an advanced health-care system is proof against the occasional, imported, local outbreak. Probably true.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">But what do we do when the World outside the bubble of our good fortune goes septic? What of our 'vital national interests', so many of which lie outside the umbrella of 'the best health-care system in the world'?&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Do we close our borders to all comers... please slip your natural resources under our door? Can we stand in splendid isolation, who have become dependent on the wealth of <i>other </i>nations?&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">We have sown poverty and strife. We may be seeing the face of the Reaper.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i>PS. The resemblance between the filovirus shown in the above image and ideogram is, in fact, coincidental... search images for 'ebola virus virion' and you will find that this pattern isn't a standard, but rather an instance.</i></span><br /><br />Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6258517855797826395.post-48185114975046581752014-04-16T16:12:00.000-07:002014-04-17T21:07:40.607-07:00Predicting TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It)<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m4iy1LwvbAA/UsyCDXNj42I/AAAAAAAAA6g/bYnRQkP5mj0/s1600/Homer-der-schrei.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m4iy1LwvbAA/UsyCDXNj42I/AAAAAAAAA6g/bYnRQkP5mj0/s1600/Homer-der-schrei.jpg" height="400" width="400" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;">Homer Simpson's <i>Schrei</i></span></b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">by <a href="http://lustich.de/" target="_blank">Lisa Lustich</a>&nbsp;</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">after Edvard Munch (<i>Der Schrei</i>) and Matt Groenig (<i>The Simpsons</i>)</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I'm sure he's 'schrei'ing, <i>"D'Oh!"</i></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b><span style="color: cyan;">Thomas Andrews:</span> The pumps buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment, no matter what we do, Titanic will founder.&nbsp;</b></i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b><br /><span style="color: cyan;">Ismay [incredulously]:</span> But this ship can't sink!&nbsp;</b></i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b><br /><span style="color: cyan;">Thomas Andrews:</span> She's made of iron, sir! I assure you, she can... and she will. It is a mathematical certainty.</b></i></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>- Dialog from the movie, <u>Titanic</u></b></i><b>&nbsp;</b></span></span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Predicting The End Of The World As We Know It</b></span><br />&nbsp;</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Prediction is tricky business. To my mind, there are three general kinds:</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><i>Mystic prediction</i></b> - Revelations, Mayan Calendar change-over, Age of Aquarius - in which visions of a deeper Truth are predicted to manifest themselves. Maybe. But I don't lose any sleep over them.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><i>Context prediction</i></b> - Cuban Missle Crisis, Fukushima spent-fuel storage collapse, economic bubble-burst - in which a particular <i>event </i>(or range of events) is foreseen and its likelihood estimated (best, worst and probable case scenarios). <br /><br />We've spun the wheel and pray for good fortune. We may not know the odds, exactly, but grip the table with white-knuckled hope. These alarm me, but when one is over, it's (more-or-less) over, and we go on to the next event.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Crises may be recurrent, but each is embedded in its own context.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><i>Systems prediction</i></b> - Malthus, <u><i>Limits to Growth</i></u>, (Abrupt) Climate Change, plummeting biodiversity - in which exponential growth and depletion, runaway feedback and physical limits trend toward our demise. These strike me as coming upon us with mathematical certainty. With the partial exception of Malthus (who had not foreseen three 'green' revolutions) these are on or ahead of schedule, with no relief in even theoretical sight.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Systems predictions are concerned with <i>processes</i>.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">&nbsp;A process is a causal chain of related events. In a simple system like <i>dominoes</i>, causation is a one-way trip. In complex systems, a domino which is 'down' is not out-of-play. Complex systems allow feedback. This is what makes systems prediction tricky... feedback leads a complex system to self-adjust.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">But there are limits. Adjustments <i>always </i>occur. But complex systems also tend to be chaotic. Beyond a certain threshold, the system may shift to a new mode, wildy dissimilar to its former pattern.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">This is the core concept of TEOTWAWKI. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">*****</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">What will trigger TEOTWAWKI?&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Frankly, I don't know. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">But my sense is that we have built a house of cards...</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">We depend on non-renewables and cheap energy. We depend on unlimited growth. We have mountains of nuclear devices lying about in their own waste, domestic and weaponized. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Fundamentalists (including our own) have their hands on reins of power. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">We've created ideal conditions for pandemic. We've shot past the climate tipping point (permafrost melting). We're killing the oceans. Arable land and potable water are on sharp decline. By every metric, we are living in environmental overshoot.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Any one of these, among others, could be the trigger.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I don't believe these have to reach a scale which, of themselves topple the techno-economy which underlies The World As We Know It. A pandemic, say, doesn't have to kill off 90% of world population to trigger the process... 10% might do it. It needn't be <i>apocalyptic </i>in scale.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">...All it has to do is shake the table hard enough.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">***** </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I believe that, at some point, we shall cross a <i>threshold of economic collapse</i> - a point somewhere between Orlov's&nbsp; Stage 1 (financial collapse) and 2 (commercial collapse) - which marks the onset of the equivalent of another Great Depression. And this will be our point-of-no-return.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Since the onset of the previous GD - a mere four score years ago - much has changed.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">World population has tripled, and gone from predominantly rural to predominantly urban or sub-urban, concentrated in low-lying coastal areas. Thus, important nodes of the global economy are exposed to civil unrest and rising sea-levels</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Wealth disparity has left billions desperate, at or over the edge of disaster. Meanwhile, corporate and fiduciary theft and corruption have weakened the system from which the wealthy have profited. Thus, it is a very short drop into widespread, violent unrest.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">&nbsp; </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Small, largely subsistent farms (</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">whose knowledge, seed stock and husbandry means necessary for small-scale farming has been drastically reduced or lost</span>) have given way to large, corporate, hybridized monoculture, whose productivity is dependent on fossil fuels... meanwhile we are at the limits (and losing ground) on arable land and fresh water. Thus, the food supply is likely to collapse along with the economy, incapable of supporting resident or refugee populations. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Cheap energy has enabled physical separation of manufacture from raw materials, energy, transportation and market synergies. Industrial centers more than ever rely on a functioning global economy for local operation. Thus, they are no longer centers for potential recovery.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Supply-on-demand (aka just-in-time supply) has left cities with a 3 to 4 day supply of food on hand. Thus, interruption of the supply <i>flow </i>will throw cities into immediate crisis.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The cumulative result is, I believe, that an economic stumble on the scale of the previous GD will subject us to far greater stresses, while lacking many of the fail-safe structures which saw that generation through.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The result, I think, will be slide through depression straight to collapse. If it were a matter of depression, only, we might well recover for another round. But given our givens, I think other events will rule that out.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">***** </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In the exponentially near future (I venture within the next world population doubling period)</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">, I predict a full-blown <i>depression = collapse</i>.&nbsp; </span></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span> I see it going down something like this:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Short Term (First Years)</b></span></span><br /><ol><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><i>We enter the economic equivalent of the Great Depression</i></b> - <br /><br />One or more trigger events occur, initiating positive (runaway) feedback in economic systems.<br /><br />The global economy stumbles, falls and fragments as bank and business fail. Debt defaults, <i>currencies become non-negotiable</i>. This is a global process. There is no entity of financial standing left to halt, much less reverse the process.<br /><br /> Import/export fails as credit and exchange become non-functional. <br /><br />The direct result is virtual cessation of international and intranational trade. Import/export ceases, notably the flow of oil. Transportation systems cease to function.<br /><b><i><br /></i></b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><i>Urban centers implode</i></b> - Supply-on-demand falters then fails, causing immediate food shortage. Abruptly unemployed millions riot over food and frustration. Fires rage. Critical infrastructure is damaged (port facilities, grid elements, financial centers, fuel distribution). Within cities, roads are occupied and blocked. Attempts at imposing martial order are successfully resisted.<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><i>Urban centers explode</i></b> - Food all but gone, desperate millions fan out into the adjacent countrysides, laying waste and consuming animal and seed stock. Roads are controlled by gangs demanding compensation for right-of-passage. Competence and cruelty are honed by ruthless culling.<br /><i><b><br /></b></i></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Rural systems go down</b></i> - Transportation fails completely due to financial disruption, uneven fuel availability and impassable roads.<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Death tolls in the billions</b></i> - From violence, exposure, starvation and disease. Many water sources are polluted by untended corpses.<br /><br /> </span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Rise of two-bit 'warlords'</b> - Small bands will likely coalesce to appropriate whatever seems worthwhile.</span></li></ol><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">All it takes for this sequence to start, I believe, is that we wander across the threshold from recession to depression.&nbsp; We have come close several times - as assessed by sober, conservative economists.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><i></i></b></span> <br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span> <br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Mid-Term (First Generation)</span></b></span><br /><ol><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Hybrid and agribusiness crops fail</b></i> - Lacking fertilizer, pesticides and fuel for water, plowing, sowing and harvest, crops fare extremely poorly. Hybrids fail to breed true after first generation, reverting to largely unviable stock. Small farming/gardening seed and techniques are rare and scattered. Hunger makes what seed there is difficult to preserve. Forage replaces agriculture.<br /> </span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Base mortality rates climb</b></i> - Lack of medicine, medical and natal services, and sanitation are themselves deadly, and permit spread of previously controlled diseases, exacerbated by poor nutrition. Death by violence continues, though decreases as perpetrators are reduced by attrition and victims become more scattered.<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Untenable domestic nuclear plants go LOCA (Loss Of Coolant Accident)</b></i> - Water- and airsheds irradiated and poisoned by emissions. Potentially short term fatal in immediate vicinity. Long-term health and reproductive issues over a wide region; dire in the northern hemisphere, hopefully less so in the southern.</span></li></ol><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Longer Term (Next Several Generations, If Any)</span></b></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Assuming the environment isn't too badly damaged by radiation and runaway climate change...</span><br /><br /><ol><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Environmental recovery begins</b></i> - Freed from habitat pressures, <i>surviving </i>plant and animal populations rebound.<br /><i><br /></i></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Parasitic/predatory groups decline</b></i> - Scarcity of victims make these groups unviable.</span><i><br /></i></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Limited agriculture regains a foothold</b></i> - Surviving non-hybrid strains are propagated.<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Limited trade begins</b></i> - Scavenged and hand-assembled items, food and furs.<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Rise of monastary-like centers</b></i> - Knowledge is preserved, reassembled and reworked along new lines. </span></li></ol><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Beyond (the <i>Possibly </i>Human Future)</b></span><i><b> </b></i></span><br /><ol><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>(Human induced) climate change runs its course</b></i> - Exactly how is in question. It's likely to add to the daunting list of challenges that survivors face over the next millennia.<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Genetic damage accumulates</b></i> - Infant and birth mortality rates rise further. Plant and animal species stressed. <br /></span></li><li><i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Physical remains of present culture degrade</b></span></i><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> - Scavenging returns diminish, eventually to negligible.<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Extraction of mineral resources remain uneconomic</b></i> - In our era, we extracted beyond the reach of lower-tech, boot-strap efforts... only common surface elements will be available, by and large.<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><i><b>Human cultures advance on neo-lithic technologies</b></i> - While some 'modern' technologies may survive (such as glass work), by and large technologies are based on biologic and common mineral resources. With luck, understanding of microbiology, physics, astonomy and mathematics will survive and inform for a brighter future.</span></li></ol><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In Conclusion</span></b></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So this is what I see as coming, and why I'm a 'hard lander'.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I see the trigger as relatively banal (vs. apocalyptic). The collapse as a relatively abrupt transition (vs. long, slow decline). The aftermath as practically permanent (vs. recovery from temporary set back).</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It just won't take much. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><br /><br /><ol></ol><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>Dave Zhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13241033623115158564noreply@blogger.com2