re: Doing LES with more.....(Posted by CptBengal on 1/3/13 at 5:53 pm to dgnx6)

quote:Whose fault is it that your expectations are this high?

the expectations based on the quality of recruits that Les Miles brings in based on the data of all FBS teams would be that he would produce AT LEAST the average offensive ranking for his recruiting class stature.

well frick that makes this kind of useless than, no? I mean we always have top recruiting classes based mostly on the defensive studs we recruit. I know we still get a lot of great Offensive recruits but we get way more defensively

eta: I'm not saying we aren't underachieving, but it's not by as much as this chart would suggest

CptBengal, I'm not going to say that your analysis is invalid. Far from it, I think that this is a nice way to look at it. However, it might be that the data themselves are a little biased. Hear me out...

Offensive production is very highly correlated with the production at one position: QB. Most teams go as their quarterbacks go. He has a good day the team has a good day for the most part. Also while LSU has had excellent recruiting during Miles' tenure it has had very bad recruiting at one position: QB. So your data may just be reflecting the fact that over the last 4 years, we haven't had solid production at that position. In other words, we don't make optimal use of the great recruits we get at other positions because of the one weakness at QB.

quote:However, that still puts the failure directly on Miles and Co. for failing to produce a player of quality in that position.

I don't dispute that at all. All I'm saying is that instead of interpreting it as LSU is not developing offensive players in general, perhaps a more accurate interpretation is that LSU is not developing the position of QB and that is skewing the numbers. It's more comforting to me that if we can somehow fix that position, everything else will improve too, rather than that the entire process is straight busted.

quote:agreed. But it was an interesting relationship that I wanted to check out. My hunch was correct, and Miles does less with more based on those rankings.

You shouldn't need a hunch and a graph to realize that the offense has not lived up to the overall recruiting rankings. And I think everyone is in agreement that something needs to change to improve that side of the ball.

However if your going to use overall recruit rankings wouldn't it make sense to see the relationship to overall success of the team during that time?

quote:All I'm saying is that instead of interpreting it as LSU is not developing offensive players in general, perhaps a more accurate interpretation is that LSU is not developing the position of QB and that is skewing the numbers.

it likely is based on our abysmal QB play as compared to our running game.

quote: It's more comforting to me that if we can somehow fix that position, everything else will improve too

based on the failure to fix that position in the last HALF DECADE...I wouldnt hold your breath.

Or, are we recruiting fine players for that position, and the coaching/playclalling has been subpar to maximize their talents....which is an equally likely scenario.