Monday 10 February 2014 18.57 EST
First published on Monday 10 February 2014 18.57 EST

For the past year, Nigel Farage has predicted, and the inhabitants of the British political bubble have often accepted, that Ukip will win the European parliament elections in May. Ukip's assumed success has been factored into every major political calculation and speculation for 2014 and for the run-in to the 2015 general election too. Nowhere is this truer than in the Conservative party, where a significant proportion of Ukip-sympathising backbenchers have been so confident of Ukip triumph that they have pushed David Cameron to accept Ukip stances on issues from Europe to migration to non-intervention in Syria. At the same time Britain's rightwing press have seized every opportunity to insist that Ukip speaks, if not for the UK, then certainly for England. Some foreign observers have looked at these islands and have drawn a similarly glum conclusion.

Two polls in the past week suggest that a lot of this may be premature, exaggerated and, even more important, preventable. The first was Lord Ashcroft's constituency poll in Wythenshawe and Sale East, where there is a parliamentary byelection on Thursday. Westminster groupthink has swallowed the narrative that Wythenshawe offers the chance of a big Ukip success against Labour in the north. The poll, by contrast, showed Labour on course for a handsome win, with Ukip and the Tories scrapping for a distant second place. Lord Ashcroft's byelection polling has a good track record. At Corby and Eastleigh his results (which are normally published a week before polling day) failed to spot a late swing to Ukip. But the Ashcroft polls got the big picture and the winning party's share nearly spot-on.

The second poll is the new Guardian/ICM survey of UK-wide voting intentions in May's European elections. This shows Labour in a reasonably strong first place on 35%, with the Tories a clear second and Ukip an equally clear third. These findings are again strikingly at odds with Westminster and media assumptions that Ukip's win is already almost done and dusted. It needs to be stressed, of course, that there are still three months to go before the European elections. Most voters are barely aware of the European elections yet. And only 27% say they are certain to vote (only 34% did so in 2009). Nevertheless, much will undoubtedly change between now and polling day.

These health warnings need to be taken seriously. Even so, the two polls tell a rather more nuanced story than the one that is often heard about Ukip these days. In both cases, Ukip is revealed as a strong and significant player – its share of the vote is clearly rising – but the party is still on the margins. In the Ashcroft poll in Wythenshawe, Ukip's share is 15%. In the Guardian/ICM European poll, the share is 20%. In the general election voting intention part of the latter poll, Ukip is on 11%. These are not wildly different from the 17% Ukip scored in the Europeans in 2009 or the 16% in the 2004 contests. If the recent poll numbers all remain the same until the relevant elections – a big if – Ukip votes would make a big impact on the results, but they would certainly not add up to a Ukip breakthrough. The bigger stories in these polls remain Labour's continued strong showing and the increasingly dire position of the Liberal Democrats.

To say this is not to be in denial about Ukip. Thursday's byelection and the May elections may produce surprises. In the meantime it is useful to get Ukip's indisputable current surge into a bit of perspective. In the real world, the public agenda has drifted away from Ukip. That's why, denied his recent spotlight, Mr Farage had to head for Somerset at the weekend to grab a bit of media coverage. The dominant issues of the past month have been genuinely serious – economic recovery, the cost of living, and floods of the aquatic rather than the exaggerated Romanian migrant variety that Ukip prefers. When real votes are counted, things may of course look different. For now, though, the political world should show more confidence. It should respond to Ukip and its agenda with less panic and more objectivity.