Wednesday, 16 July 2014

Population stabilization should be a priority for development
in India, and then only it will be able to sustain growth.

India is a great success story of economic growth and poverty
decline, but it remains the home of global poverty as well as illiteracy, and
half of its children are profoundly malnourished. Further, a recent report of the World Bank reports
that India’s income inequality doubled in the two decades to 2011. This paradox of poverty and plenty poses one of the
great intellectual and moral challenges of the day. However, under the new political leadership India has the opportunity to show the rest of the develop­ing
world how open, democratic societies can achieve rapid as well as environmentally sustainable growth and shared prosperity; but this requires more painstaking
effort towards focusing on real interventions. And that may be the reason while
speaking at a function to release a book, [1]Prime
Minister Narendra Modi said that the nation needs to think big and focus on “skill, scale and speed” to revive
India's growth story and called for substantially enhancing the "input of
intellectual think-tanks" for better policy frameworks. The PM later
tweeted "Sadly, role of think tanks has not increased to provide critical
inputs to policy making;" and this post aims in this direction and
suggests critical policy inputs to spur
India's growth trajectory.

Population and development are interrelated:

One has to recognize that population is an important factor in
development, especially when it is growing seemingly out of control since it
leads to a significant diversion of national investable resources to
consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and
productivity and for improving the quality of public services such as
education, health, sanitation, provision of safe drinking water, etc.

With 1.27 billion people and still
growing, India is getting dangerously overcrowded. India is currently the second most populous nation in the world.
It will surpass China as the most populous within 5-7 years. India's population is projected to peak at 1.7 billion
in 2060. China at its peak in 2025 will have 1.4 billion people. In fact, when
China peaks, India will have already surpassed it in population. Many
Indians including policy makers see these emerging demographics as a critical
advantage in competition with the nation it regards as its chief rival – China. Another popularly held belief by
India’s policy makers and experts is that as a country becomes economically
more prosperous, its fertility declines significantly and leads to a stable
population. However, this is a simplistic view of a complex phenomenon. Since the introduction of economic reforms in
1991, India has become one of the fasted growing major economies in the world.
The economic reforms completed 20 years in July, 2011, however, during this
period, India’s population increased by 365 million, much more than the total population
of USA - the third most populous country in the world; and it is still growing by around
17 to 18 million every year.
This
raises the question: Is Development the Best Contraceptive or Are
Contraceptives?

Magnitude of
unwanted fertility:

Current population growth is mainly
fuelled by unwanted fertility. More than four in ten pregnancies are
unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and
half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued
population growth. Around 26 million
children are born in India every year and out of this about 6 million births
have been classified as unplanned/unintended. Based on findings of the National
Family Health Surveys 1, 2 and 3, it is estimated that currently there are
around 460 million people out of 1270 million in India who are product of unwanted
pregnancies, and most of them are from the lower economic strata. [2]
The consequences of unwanted pregnancy
are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development. It is
because unwanted childbearing results in poor physical growth, reduced school
performance, diminished concentration
in daily tasks thus impacting work capacity and work output resulting in
diminished earning capacity. The impact of unwanted childbearing is reflected
in widespread hunger, poverty, unemployment as well as increasing scarcity of
basic resources like food, water and space in several parts of India despite
concerted developmental efforts since 1991.

In short, population growth fueled by unwanted
fertility is not only distressing but it is also demoralizing. Broadly speaking, the galloping population growth in India
has created obstacles in the way
of economic development.
In the following pages four important implications of galloping population are
discussed which hampers “speed” of economic progress.

I-Demographic dividend or disaster:

With around 70% of the population under 35, India
can afford to dream to become economic power in the world before the middle of
this century. So, it is fashionable now to talk of India’s “demographic dividend”.By 2030, India will be the
youngest big nation in the world, with an average age of 29 years. Can India take advantage of this demographic window in
the next couple of decades? Emerging
situation iscandidly summarized by a leading
journalist - Shekhar Gupta: “Unless
our totally moribund system of education is revolutionized, this dividend will
become a curse. India would then end up having the largest population of angry,
unemployable young lumpens in the
history of mankind. Even India will not have the resilience to survive the
calamity”. [3]
A radical revamps of education from top to bottom is the only way to do
justice to the politics of aspiration .[4]

II-Increasing gender gap:

Gender equality is an essential ingredient for
India’s development. However, India still has quite long way to go in bridging the
gender gap in the areas of health, education and economics, if not politics. It
has been ranked 101 among 136 countries in The Global Gender Gap Report 2013
released by the World Economic Forum. Also, the country has fallen from 96th rank
in 2006 to 101 in the last 8 years, revealing a stark and deep rooted gender
gap in India.

India is simply not doing enough for its
women to improve access to resources and freedom of movement as well as
improving decision making power. Poor availability of reproductive health, education
and other facilities creates obstacles in improving the decision making power
of women. During the
National Family Health Survey-3, the
married women were asked who made decisions about their
own health care, major household purchases, purchases for daily household
needs, and visiting their own family or relatives etc., in order to be able to
measure the level of women empowerment. Only 37% of the total currently married
women along or jointly with their husband participated in making all four of
these decisions in the county as a whole. However, among the 17 major states of
India having population more than 25 million in 2011, women’s participation in
decision-making varied from 49 per cent in Tamil Nadu to 23 per cent in
Rajasthan.

There is an urgent need to rethink
as how to expedite the process of women empowerment or their decision-making
power in a patriarchal and traditional
society with innumerable obstacles, since empowered women have a significant
role in India's growth trajectory.To deal with a problem that has roots in social behavior and prejudice,
mere legislation is not enough. One has to create an environment where sons and
daughters are equally valued. For this, women must have access to education and training along
with economic empowerment through property rights, favorable credit and
entrepreneurial support as well as opportunity in paid employment. At the same time, insuring reproductive rights
could be another but effective way to promote favorable conditions to empower
women in India. In a patriarchal society, where power relations make women
passive and subordinate, reproductive technology can help them to break this
vicious circle. In other worlds, the reproductive healthcare is an important
pre-requisite to create an environment where women can take decisions regarding
the number, timing and spacing of their children. Therefore, addressing
inequalities in access to and use of reproductive health services including
contraceptive services could be a powerful tool in empowering women in India. [5]

III-Emerging demographic divide – a challenge for development:

Over the last two decades,
which are coterminous with the era of economic reforms, Indian economic growth
has accelerated, making it the third-fastest growing economy in the world. But
it has had highly regressive impact since inter-state disparities, for
instance, has tended to widen even more than before.
This divide is more pronounced when we compare the FLNI States or so called BIMARU States of Bihar, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh with
Four Southern Indian (FSI) States of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and
Tamil Nadu. In the post-reform period the gap
between FLNI and FSI States has increased on many socio-economic indicators. What is holding back the growth story of FLNI States? These States are growing slowing not because
of poverty or low level of education but mainly due to their galloping
population growth fueled mainly by unwanted or unintended fertility (Table 1).

Table 1: Emerging north-south demographic divide, 2011

States

Total population 2011 (million)

% Annual population growth 2001-2011

Number of children/ woman

2005-06

Number of
unwanted children/woman

2005-06

1

2

3

4

5

Bihar

103.8

2.26

4.0

1.6

Madhya Pradesh

72.60

1.86

3.1

1.0

Rajasthan

68.6

1.96

3.2

1.0

Uttar Pradesh

199.6

1.86

3.8

1.5

India

1210.2

1.62

2.7

0.8

Andhra Pradesh

84.7

1.06

1.8

0.3

Karnataka

61.1

1.49

2.1

0.5

Kerala

33.4

0.48

1.8

0.1

Tamil Nadu

72.1

1.46

1.8

0.4

Source: Census of
India 2011 and National Family Health Survey-3, 2005-06.

Census of India 2011 reveals a sharp decrease in the
rate of population growth in FLNI States as compared to FLNI States during the
last two decades of economic reforms. In 1991, the FSI
States had 23 per cent of India’s population and by 2011, that figure has
declined to 21 per cent. In 2051, the combined population of these States is
projected to be only 16 per cent of the country’s total. On the other hand, the
population of the FLNI States increased from 34% in 1991 to 37% in 2011 and it
will be around 45% in 2051. It means all the future population growth will be
accounted by the poor performing states.
While
all the FSI States have already reached below the replacement level fertility
of 2.1 children per woman required to initiate the process of population
stabilization, the FLNI States have a long way to go before they achieve this
level. On an average a woman in India produces 2.7 children during her
lifetime; however, there is a wide diversity of fertility levels among these
States. It ranges from 1.7 in Andhra Pradesh to 4.0 in Bihar, as per the
NFHS-3. The difference between the
actual fertility and the total wanted fertility that is unwanted fertility,
ranges from 0.3 children per woman in Andhra Pradesh to 1.6 children in Bihar.
Aside from Bihar, the difference of one child or more was observed in Uttar
Pradesh (1.5), Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan (1.0 each), as shown Table 1(Col. 5).

The
emerging demographic peculiarity could have major ramifications as India
attempts to continue its high economic growth rate over the coming decades.
Armed with reams of demographic and other relevant data, Nicholas
Eberstadt, a senior political economist and demographer at the American
Enterprise Institute, a Washington, DC think-tank, argued that India is bisected by a great
north-south fertility divide, in much of the north, fertility levels remain
quite high, at four, five, or more children per woman; in much of the south
India, however, fertility levels are at, or already below, the replacement
level.[6]This is a challenge for India's development in the decades
immediately ahead. Further,
experts say the demographic imbalances could also fan political tensions. It is in this context that fear
policies playing havoc with human numbers in the country is not largely
unfounded. [7]

IV - Hindu-Muslim demographic imbalances – a serious concern:

Another demographic characteristic which may have major ramifications for
development as well as population stabilization effort is the pattern
of Hindu-Muslim population growth. There is a widespread feeling that the
main cause of population explosion in India is due to the higher fertility among Muslims as
compared to other religious groups, especially Hindus. Even some argued that the growing
demographic imbalances in India should indeed be matter of serious concern
as they seem to have serious repercussions on the very survival of the
“Indian civilization”[8].

The Indian Muslims are not in a
majority, but they are also not a negligible minority. India has the third highest concentration of
Muslims worldwide after Indonesia and Pakistan. The Muslim population was 138 million out
of a total population of 1028 million in 2001. Percentage wise, Muslims
were about 13.4% of the total population, as compared to 80.5% Hindus
(including Scheduled Castes and Tribes) and 6.1% other minorities (Sikhs,
Christians, Buddhists, Jains, etc.). Currently, the Muslim population is
around 170 million, as per the estimated figure for the year 2011. The annual growth rate among Muslims has
averaged 2.7% between 1961-2001, which is well above the national average
population growth of 2.1% and the Hindu growth rate of slightly less than
2%. No doubt, Muslims
have higher fertility rates than other religious groups. Number of
children/ woman is almost half a child higher for Muslims than for Hindus
in 2005-06, as shown in Table 2. However, the Hindu-Muslim fertility
differential declined significantly from 1.1 children per woman in 1992-93
to less than 0.5 in 2005-06. Muslims
recorded the highest decline in fertility among major religious groups in
India. This is a remarkable
development and indicates that India’s Muslims are now moving closer to
joining the Indian mainstream buttressed presumably by the reality that in
the end-game the Indian Republic has made strides and protected the rights
of India’s Muslims.

Table
2: Trends in number of children per woman by religion

Religion

Number of children per
woman (Total Fertility Rate)

1992-93

1998-99

2005-06

% decline 1993-06

Hindu

3.30

2.78

2.65

-20

Muslim

4.41

3.59

3.09

-30

Christian

2.87

2.44

2.35

-18

Jain

2.77

2.33

2.02

-27

Sikh

2.43

2.26

1.97

-20

Total

3.39

3.85

2.68

-21

Source:
National Family Health Surveys 1,2 and 3

Is India going Muslim?
Projections for future population growth in India show that by the end of
the 21st century India’s total population will stabilize in which the
Muslim population would be less than 20% of total, as noted by the Sachar Committee[9]. Thus the propaganda that the unchecked growth
in the Muslim population will result in their overtaking the Hindu
population is totally false. Further, if the rates of
decline of fertility we saw from 1992 to 2005 continued for another 15
years then in the year 2020 the total fertility rate of Muslims and the
Hindus would be about the same. As the Muslim population is much younger it
would continue to grow more rapidly than the non-Muslim for some time, but
eventually the growth rate of both populations would be the same and the
Muslim portion of the India’s population would tend to stabilize.

Well, the only major religion left
out of the demographic transition in India is Islam. Unmet need for family
planning is particularly high for Muslim eligible couples. And they could
be helped by providing family planning services looking to the needs of
clients as happened in Bangladesh. The second issue - that is very
important - is that the Indian family planning program has predominately
promoted female sterilization. Many Muslim scholars believe that the
permanent method of contraception is not permitted in Islam. So India has
to diversify its approach to include other modern methods of contraception
including injectables with quality in its program.

New political
leadership in Delhi is keen to bring them into the mainstream. While responding to the President's Address in the joint session of the
Parliament on June 11, 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a point
about the Muslim community: “We need to bring them into the mainstream. We
can't leave them behind.” Making a point on inclusive development, he said,
“If a limb is disabled, the whole body is disabled.” PM Modi knows that
without Muslims’ cooperation it will be difficult to push India’s growth
story. Here quality reproductive health and education services could help
them to join main stream.

Discussion:

To
make “Skill, Scale and Speed” a workable
framework, there is an important lesson India must learn from modern
history. When emerging economies thought about inclusive and sustainable
development some forty years ago, they gaveimportance
to some basic issues like population stabilization and quality education in their development
package. Table 3 (Col. 2) indicates that fertility
levels were quite high, at five, six, or more children per woman of these
economies in 1970. After forty years
most of these economies have achieved or going to achieve stabilization in
their population growth, but India has a long way to achieve this. Today, a woman in India produces 2.6
children during her lifetime. The replacement
level fertilityof
2.1 children per woman, required to initiate the process of population
stabilization, has already been achieved by Thailand (1.5), China (1.6),
Brazil (1.7) and even Islamic country Iran (1.9), as shown in the table (Col.
3). Indonesia, another Muslim
dominating country, is going to attain it within couple of years; however,
India will achieve this level not before 2035, as per the UN Population
Division. As a result, ‘Demographic Transition’ in
India has stalled midway and is adversely impacting parameters like poverty, education,
employment, nutrition, gender equality, health and especially governance. On the other hand, remaining emerging
economies, as shown in Table 3, have improved the quality of life parameters
in terms of health, education and wellbeing ( Cols. 5, 6 and 7).

India has reached a crisis point
with respect to the interlocking issues of unwanted fertility,
unsustainable development and human suffering. As such, India must take a
position that every child should be a wanted one. Achieving this goal would
prevent the suffering of women and their families and the socio-economic
problems that often follow the birth of unwanted children. Incidence
of unwanted pregnancies can be dramatically reduced, if not eliminated,
within a decade by revamping family planning programme looking to the needs
of clients, as has been done in
Andhra Pradesh, one of the states of India.
If Andhra - with little outside help
- can manage its population issue under relatively low level of literacy,
there is no reason why Four Large North Indian States of Bihar, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh with lesser problems and with
increasingly generous support from the Government of India under National
Rural Health Mission (NRHM), should fail so spectacularly in managing
unwanted fertility.

Table 3: Trends
in total fertility and levels of infant mortality, life expectancy at birth
literacy and poverty, selected
countries

The
need of the hour, therefore, is to create confidence among policy makers
and programme managers that a breakthrough is possible. There is no need to implement coercive measures or to provide
incentives and disincentives to stabilize the population. The real need is
to provide reproductive services in un-served and underserved areas by
realigning the capacity of health system to deliver quality care to suit
the needs of clients. We need creative policies to strengthen this
foundation, as shown by Andhra Pradesh.

Demography, therefore, in the next 10
years or so will pose serious challenges to economic growth, democracy and
national unity by its sheer size. Unless the Centre and FLNI states
engineer a common population stabilization program to lift these economies,
the shadow of poverty and illiteracy as well as poor governance issue will
continue to haunt India and thwart its tryst with destiny. This is a challenge for India’s development in the decades
immediately ahead. To make India relevant again, Modi has no time to lose.

[1]Released book edited by Bibek Debroy, Ashley Tellis and Reece Trevor
titled "Getting India Back on track - an action agenda for reform",
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2014.

[8] For details, see:
“A note on the growing demographic imbalances in the Indian subcontinent” by
Dr. M.D. Srinivas, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai, 1999.

[9]In March 2005, the Government of India
appointed a high level committee to prepare a report on the social, economic
and educational status of Indian Muslims. The 7-member committee, headed by
Justice Rajinder Sachar (retired) submitted its report to the Prime Minister in
November 2006. The Sachar Committee’s report is an extremely valuable document
on the social, economic and educational status of Indian Muslims.