Expires:200405022100;;797593
FPUS51 KBTV 020741
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-022100-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
340 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE 50S. WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
$$
REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
_________________________________________________________________
FXUS61 KBTV 020716
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004
COORD WITH GYX...THANX FOR THE CALL.
WAVE OF LOW PRESS TO RIDE UP ALONG A CF JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FA
TODAY. THIS FRONTAL SYS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON
MON AS MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESS RIDE UP ALONG IT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESS TO RIDE UP THIS CF TO THE EAST OF THE FA ON MON NITE...THEN HI
PRESS TO START TO BUILD IN ACRS THE FA ON TUE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS
THE FA ON MON NITE/TUE.
00-02Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE
M60S-L70S TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AT 5-15G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS
ARE BASICALLY 75-80F TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS
BASED ON THIS DATA. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS IN THE ST
LAW VLY TODAY...FOR IF THE CF SAGS FAR ENUFF TO THE SE IT COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THIS PART OF THE FA. RUC/ETA/NGM/GPS IPW
SITES SHOW PW VALUES TO BE 1-1.4" ACRS THE FA TODAY AND INTO TONITE.
RUC SHOWS ONLY WIDELY SCT PCPN ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH MOCLDY SKIES
OTRW. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYS IS BEHIND IT.
WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN CAA TONITE...AND WK
CAA ON MON THRU TUE. H85 TEMPS TO GO NEGATIVE ACRS THE FA BY AROUND
12Z TUE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE
AND ON MON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO LINGER ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU
TUE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON TUE. SOME MID-LVL
MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY...THEN BETTER MID-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA
TONITE THRU MON NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AROUND AN INCH
ON MON...0.5-1" ON MON NITE...AND BLO 0.5" ON TUE.
RUC/ETA CAPES TO BE AOB 500 J/KG ACRS THE FA TODAY. NOTED PARTS OF
THE WRN FA IN SPC DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS. ENVIRONMENT ACRS
THE FA INTO TONITE APPEARS TO BE MODERATELY TO HIGHLY SHEARED WITH
LOW INSTABILITY AND WET-BULB ZERO HTS AROUND 10 KFT. WITH LACK OF
GOOD LOW AND MID-LVL INSTABILITY AND GOOD MID-LVL DRY AIR ACRS THE FA
FEEL THAT CHC FOR SVR WX IS MINIMAL INTO TONITE. WILL CONT WITH THE
MENTION OF NON-SVR TSTMS IN THE FCST INTO TONITE.
HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM WEST (HIGHEST) TO EAST (LOWEST) TODAY...WITH
THE OPPOSITE TAPERING ON MON. HIR POPS IN THE GOING FCST FOR TONITE
LOOK PRETTY GOOD. WILL GO WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN ACRS THE ENTIRE FA
(AND MOSTLY CHC POPS) ON MON NITE FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR A FURTHER TREND TO LINGER THE PCPN ACRS THE FA LONGER. IF
IT ENDS UP LINGERING TOO LONG...WE/LL NEED TO START TO WORRY ABOUT
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES EVENTUALLY. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE M40S-50S TONITE
AND BASICALLY AROUND 30F ON MON NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE BASICALLY
55-65F ON MON. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND TUE FOR NOW.
PRELIM WRK ZONES AND ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM.
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
MURRAY
FXUS61 KBTV 020102
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
900 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004
.UPDATE...
RGNL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SCT SHWRS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS MVG EWD
ACRS CNTRL NY INTO CNTRL VT. THIS ACTVTY AHD OF CDFNT JUST NW OF
YOW VLY. THIS FNT XPCTD TO MAKE ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS EWD WITH SW
FLOW ALF AND RMN W OF ST LAW VLY OVRNGT AS SRN STREAM WAVE DVLPS TO
THE S. BASED ON LTST RDR TRENDS AND LTL XPCTD MVMNT OF FNT...CHC
SHWRS/PSBL TSTM LOOKS GOOD FOR TNGT. GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO
CHGS.
AFOREMENTIONED FNT NOT XPCTD TO MOV THRU FA TIL SUN NGT/MON MRNG AS
WAVE MVS N OF RGN. AS A RSLT...ERN ZNS MAY RMN MSTLY DRY FOR GOOD
PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BFR SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS INCRS LTR DURG AFTN.
BULK OF RAFL WL BE DURG SUN NGT INTO MON AM.
&&
KJC
*** PREV DISCUSSION ***
.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN SOME
AREAS IN VT NEAR YESTERDAY/S HIGHS...ESPECIALLY WHERE VERY LITTLE
CLD COVER. LINE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS OVER LK ONTARIO AND WESTERN
NY. THIS HAS SINCE MVD NE ALONG A SHORT WV IN COLD FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE ST LAW VALLEY. NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AT ALL WITH THIS
LINE. STRONG WINDS MAY BE A FACTOR W/ THIS LINE AND OTHER
CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND...BASED ON LIMITED INSTABILITY...HIGHER
DEWPTS...AND JET MAX OVER AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE TS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER N
NY. MDL DIFF WITH TIMING OF FROPA SUN/MON. UPPER TROUGH DIGS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...GIVING MORE OF WEST/EAST PASSAGE.
THIS WILL STILL ALLOW SHORT WV TO MV UP ALONG FRONT INTO MONDAY...
BRINGING PRECIP INTO CWA. ETA AND GFS DIFFER GREATLY W/ TIMING AND
AMT BEING TRAVERSED THRU CWA BEFORE TAPERING OFF MON MORNING. WILL
TRY TO BLEND THE TWO.
MAV GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED TEMPS SUPER WELL AND WILL ADJUST CCF
TEMPS AS WELL AS POPS FOR SHORT TERM TIME-FRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT...BRINGING DOWN COOLER AIR ON
NW FLOW MON NITE INTO TUES. SOME CLDS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.EXTENDED (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE ST LAWRENCE VLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
SO WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. 12Z GFS MODEL INDICATING SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
EXTENDED...WGH
FXUS61 KBTV 011940
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004
.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN SOME
AREAS IN VT NEAR YESTERDAY/S HIGHS...ESPECIALLY WHERE VERY LITTLE
CLD COVER. LINE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS OVER LK ONTARIO AND WESTERN
NY. THIS HAS SINCE MVD NE ALONG A SHORT WV IN COLD FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE ST LAW VALLEY. NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AT ALL WITH THIS
LINE. STRONG WINDS MAY BE A FACTOR W/ THIS LINE AND OTHER
CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND...BASED ON LIMITED INSTABILITY...HIGHER
DEWPTS...AND JET MAX OVER AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE TS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER N
NY. MDL DIFF WITH TIMING OF FROPA SUN/MON. UPPER TROUGH DIGS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...GIVING MORE OF WEST/EAST PASSAGE.
THIS WILL STILL ALLOW SHORT WV TO MV UP ALONG FRONT INTO MONDAY...
BRINGING PRECIP INTO CWA. ETA AND GFS DIFFER GREATLY W/ TIMING AND
AMT BEING TRAVERSED THRU CWA BEFORE TAPERING OFF MON MORNING. WILL
TRY TO BLEND THE TWO.
MAV GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED TEMPS SUPER WELL AND WILL ADJUST CCF
TEMPS AS WELL AS POPS FOR SHORT TERM TIME-FRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT...BRINGING DOWN COOLER AIR ON
NW FLOW MON NITE INTO TUES. SOME CLDS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.EXTENDED (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE ST LAWRENCE VLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
SO WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. 12Z GFS MODEL INDICATING SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
EXTENDED...WGH
This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
Network)
References
1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html
968
ASUS51 KBTV 021011
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2004
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
VTZ001>014-021100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLEAR 65 58 78 S12G20 29.88S
MONTPELIER PTCLDY 57 55 93 CALM 29.97S FOG
MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 55 54 96 CALM 29.92S FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY N/A 55 53 93 CALM 29.92S
RUTLAND PTCLDY 63 55 77 SE9 29.93F
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 59 56 89 SE6 29.98S
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 64 57 78 VRB3 29.95S
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