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July 2, 2013

[Administration officials
no longer argue, as they did early in President Obama’s first term, that ending
the Israeli occupation and creating a Palestinian state is
the key to improving the standing of the United States in the Middle East. The
Israeli-Palestinian conflict is now just one headache among a multitude.]

Secretary of State John Kerry spent the weekend in Israel and the West Bank as

protests rattled the Egyptian government and war raged in Syria.

WASHINGTON — In
Damascus, the Syrian government’s forces are digging in against rebels in a
bloody civil war that is swiftly approaching the grim milestone of 100,000
dead. In Cairo, an angry tide of protesters again threatens an Egyptian
president.

At the same time, in
tranquil Tel Aviv, Secretary of State John Kerry wrapped up a busy round of
shuttle diplomacy, laboring to revive a three-decade-old attempt at peace
negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians. He insisted on Sunday that
he had made “real progress.”

The new secretary of
state’s exertions — reminiscent of predecessors like Henry A. Kissinger and
James A. Baker III — have been met with the usual mix of hope and skepticism.
But with so much of the Middle East still convulsing from the effects of the
Arab Spring, Mr. Kerry’s efforts raise questions about the Obama
administration’s priorities at a time of renewed regional unrest.

The Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, once a stark symbol and source of grievance in the Arab world, is now
almost a sideshow in a Middle East consumed by sectarian strife, economic
misery and, in Egypt, a democratically elected leader fighting for legitimacy
with many of his people.

“The moment for this
kind of diplomacy has passed,” said Robert Blecher, deputy director of the
Middle East and North Africa Program of the International Crisis Group. “He’s
working with actors who have acted in this movie before, and the script is
built around the same elements. But the theater is new; the region is a
completely different place today.”

Administration officials
no longer argue, as they did early in President Obama’s first term, that ending
the Israeli occupation and creating a Palestinian state is
the key to improving the standing of the United States in the Middle East. The
Israeli-Palestinian conflict is now just one headache among a multitude.

And yet Mr. Kerry,
backed by Mr. Obama, still believes that tackling the problem is worth the
effort: five visits to the region in the last three months. The most recent
trip involved nearly 20 hours of talks, stretching almost until dawn, with
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Mahmoud Abbas, the
president of the Palestinian Authority.

Former administration
officials defend that conviction. Mr. Kerry’s focus, they say, makes sense
precisely because of the chaos elsewhere. With little leverage over Egypt and
deep reluctance about intervening in Syria, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is
one place that the United States can still exert influence, and perhaps even
produce a breakthrough.

“You don’t have
instability between the Israelis and Palestinians right now,” said Dennis B.
Ross, a former senior adviser to Mr. Obama on the Middle East. “But if you
don’t act, there’s a risk that the Palestinian Authority will collapse, leaving
a vacuum. And if we know one thing about vacuums in the Middle East, they are
never filled with good things.”

Resuscitating the peace
process, he said, is also vital to Jordan, which is reeling from the wave of
refugees from Syria and can ill afford a new wave of Palestinian unrest in the
neighboring West Bank.

What is less clear is
whether the Arab upheaval has made a peace accord between the Israelis and
Palestinian any less elusive. Some analysts say the instability has made Mr.
Netanyahu and Mr. Abbas eager to resolve their dispute, while others assert
that both can use it as a pretext to avoid making the hard choices needed for a
deal.

“I think both sides look
at what’s happening in the region right now and think, ‘Maybe we’re better off
putting ourselves in a more stable situation with each other,’ ” said a
senior Western diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of his
involvement in what Mr. Kerry has demanded be confidential discussions.

But several Israeli
analysts said the reverse was true: the unrest has made Israel more concerned
about security than about taking risks to advance the peace process. Sallai
Meridor, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said most Israelis would
rank Syria, Iran, Egypt and Jordan above the Palestinians in terms of
“importance and urgency.”

A day after Mr. Kerry
concluded 13 hours of talks with Mr. Netanyahu, Israeli newspapers were
dominated by images of the vast protests in Egypt. Five of the six five major
daily papers did not even carry front-page reports on Mr. Kerry’s diplomacy.

“Were you to ask people
in the leadership of both Israel and the Palestinians whether they thought
resolving the conflict now, given the developments in the region, is feasible,
most people would tell you it’s quite unlikely,” Mr. Meridor said.

As for the Palestinians,
some analysts said Mr. Abbas felt as vulnerable as ever about protracted
negotiations with Mr. Netanyahu, particularly without preconditions. A preoccupied
Egypt would leave the Palestinian Authority without crucial political support.

“Abbas would say that to
reach a deal, you need Arab support from Saudi Arabia and Egypt,” said Ghaith
al-Omari, the executive director of the American Task Force on Palestine. “With
all the chaos, you might not get that.”

Mr. Kerry has made
efforts to enlist the Arab world in his campaign. He brought Arab foreign
ministers to Washington in April and won their support for an update to the
2002 Arab Peace Initiative.

Before his latest round
of shuttle diplomacy with Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Abbas, Mr. Kerry huddled with
his counterparts in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Analysts say he has avoided the
trap of pushing for direct talks without laying the necessary groundwork.

“There is a reason Kerry
has gotten as far as he has,” said Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former American
ambassador to Israel and Egypt.

While resolving the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the magic bullet for the region that some
once thought, it still resonates widely, whether among the crowds in Tahrir
Square or the militants of Hezbollah, who cite Israel in rallying around
President Bashar al-Assad of Syria.

A recent survey of
20,000 people in 14 countries by the Arab Center for Research and Policy
Studies in Doha found that found Israel and the United States were seen as the
top security threats.

Mr. Kerry has made it
clear that he will not give up his peacemaking quest. But analysts said that
the gravity of the crisis in Egypt would force him and other senior officials
to shift their attention to Cairo, where American policy, some say, has failed
to keep up with events.

“It’s good that Kerry is
focusing on the peace process,” said Brian Katulis, an expert on Egypt at the
Center for American Progress, “but the biggest thing they haven’t done is
pursue a strategic review on Egypt.”

Mark Landler reported from Washington, and Jodi
Rudoren from Jerusalem.