]]>By: gregladenhttp://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/h1n1-vaccine-and-miscarriages-more-fear-mongering/#comment-28476
Sun, 19 Dec 2010 15:59:44 +0000http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2584#comment-28476Question: Have you seen “capture and release” statistical methods used in this context before? I love innovation in statistics, but this may be a case of trying all the methods out to get a desirable result or, more likely, trying to blind the reader.

Comment: If I read the ‘literature’ regarding miscarriage caused by H1N1 (the fake woo woo literature, not the real literature) correctly, I think they have used an “innovative” correction to make a very large estimate for the most recent year and compared it to prior years data (two years, IIRC) that were not derived using the same method. That would be way wrong.

Also, even if their original data (that they collected) was somehow valid, I would think that this particular approach to extrapolation would be very inaccurate … or, more exactly, inaccuracies would be potentially amplified a great deal.

Epidemiologists estimate things like flu death by interpolating from a set of symptoms often linked to flu. As a result, any over-estimate is less than the original seed numbers. That can give results that are wrong, but not too wrong. The method used in these H1N1 miscarriage studies do the opposite: They go from (allegedly) well defined cases in a very small sample to extrapolate outwards. Very bad technique.

As far as we know, the science shows at this point that the H1N1 2009/10 flu was, as originally feared, very bad for pregnant women and their fetus. This makes this particular bit of anti-vax distortion and fear mongering especially bad.

]]>By: Science Momhttp://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/h1n1-vaccine-and-miscarriages-more-fear-mongering/#comment-28436
Thu, 16 Dec 2010 18:57:53 +0000http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2584#comment-28436I believe another crank that assisted with this VAERS dumpster-diving expedition worth mentioning is Gary Goldman. He is a whale.to fave and editor in chief for Medical Veritas. Thank you Dr. Novella for putting this rubbish into perspective.
]]>By: daedalus2uhttp://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/h1n1-vaccine-and-miscarriages-more-fear-mongering/#comment-28427
Thu, 16 Dec 2010 03:06:36 +0000http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2584#comment-28427Flu is not benign to the fetus even if the fetus survives to term. I heard a talk by someone specializing in the effects of maternal illness on their fetus in utero and the statement was made that if exposure to flu in utero could be completely prevented, that the incidence of schizophrenia would go down by 20%.
]]>By: Calli Arcalehttp://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/h1n1-vaccine-and-miscarriages-more-fear-mongering/#comment-28424
Wed, 15 Dec 2010 15:11:11 +0000http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2584#comment-28424tmac57 — there is a statistically significant rate of *death* among pregnant women who contract the flu (and maternal death is, of course, fatal to the fetus as well). If that doesn’t persuade women to get the flu shot, I doubt miscarriage rates will.

That said, I have read (don’t remember where at the moment, and I have only a brief moment before my compile finishes and I have to get back to work) that an increased miscarriage rate has indeed been observed in women who contracted influenza. This is not really surprising; serious illness in general is associated with an increased miscarriage risk.

The big problem, of course, is that miscarriage rates are messy data. Not all miscarriages are reported, especially very early ones (which even the mother herself may mistake for a heavy period, if she didn’t yet realize that she was pregnant, especially if she has irregular periods), and concomitant factors such as influenza aren’t always reported either. Most significantly, miscarriage is far more common than most people are prepared to admit — possibly as high as a fifth of all recognized pregnancies end in miscarriage.

]]>By: tmac57http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/h1n1-vaccine-and-miscarriages-more-fear-mongering/#comment-28423
Wed, 15 Dec 2010 14:35:03 +0000http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2584#comment-28423It is really distressing to read the collection of anecdotes on the anti-vax sites.Clearly the people there believe the connection between the vaccine and spontaneous abortion,and it is compelling to read account after account of “My pregnancy was going just fine,and then I had the flu vaccine,and the next day/week/month,I lost my baby”.The emotional impact of these stories are hard to counteract with charts and cold statistics.
I was wondering if there is a statistically significant rate of spontaneous abortion among the women who contract the flu. If there is,that might be an important factor in encouraging pregnant women to get the vaccine.
]]>By: VRAlbanyhttp://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/h1n1-vaccine-and-miscarriages-more-fear-mongering/#comment-28419
Wed, 15 Dec 2010 02:52:10 +0000http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2584#comment-28419Ooh! I see!
This is a great illustration of the plural of anecdote = anecdotes/confirmation bias concept we were talking about earlier. How is a study based on a “data” set from a couple of “tell us your horrible vaccine stories” sites NOT going to be biased? I mean, they are actively stockpiling the anecdotes they want to hear. It’s almost too easy to discredit this claim, and it’s a shame that anyone would believe Adams.

But I preach to the choir here… at least I feel like I’m getting better at this critical review thing.

Beautiful breakdown of the numbers. Thanks for sharing.

]]>By: daedalus2uhttp://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/h1n1-vaccine-and-miscarriages-more-fear-mongering/#comment-28415
Tue, 14 Dec 2010 20:25:26 +0000http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2584#comment-28415About 5% of the deaths due to H1N1 were in pregnant women. If there are 4 million births, that means ~3 million pregnant women at any time during the year (~3 million/300 million =1%), which means ~5x more deaths among pregnant women than among the non-pregnant.

]]>By: Enzohttp://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/h1n1-vaccine-and-miscarriages-more-fear-mongering/#comment-28414
Tue, 14 Dec 2010 18:45:45 +0000http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2584#comment-28414Great deconstruction of a ridiculous argument. It really is sad that on such an important issue, many readers would simply trust the “report” without looking into it.

As you’ve shown, a little bit of information about the numbers and some napkin math reveals the truth. A shame more people don’t take this approach to any report they read. I hope this doesn’t get picked up by mainstream media.

]]>By: B Hitthttp://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/h1n1-vaccine-and-miscarriages-more-fear-mongering/#comment-28412
Tue, 14 Dec 2010 17:45:35 +0000http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2584#comment-28412Steve, what kind of profile does NCOW have outside of their anti-vax, anti-GMO echo chamber? While their arguments are clearly laughable and don’t stand up to scrutiny (your analysis here handily embarrasses them), it’s not so easy for the typical pregnant woman to see through them and their propaganda might be quite compelling.

I’m thinking of groups like Age of Autism, which is equally ludicrous and pseudoscientific, but gets a good deal of traction in the community of frustrated parents of autistic children. Should we be as concerned about NCOW?