Tuesday roundup: Interest in PA, 50-state poll, money for Burr, more

This post marks the kickoff of a new daily feature here at Election Projection. Be sure to come back every weekday for a roundup of election news. And after the election you’ll want to continue stopping by for election reactions and other political news of interest. EP’s coverage won’t end when the votes are counted.

Nine weeks from today voters will head to the polls to elect, among many others, the next President of the United States. Pennsylvania is high on the candidates’ wish list with both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump spending lots of time and effort (and money, mostly in Clinton’s case) there. Clinton enjoys a 6.5-point advantage in the Pennsylvania presidential projection, but her comfortable lead belies an increased level of interest among voters in the state.

More people report being interested in the race this year than you might expect, given the level of dislike of the two major party nominees.

What may come as a surprise, despite their unpopularity, is the fact that more voters say they are “very interested” in the upcoming election than the previous three presidential elections. Seven in ten voters indicate they are very interested in the election compared to 56 percent in 2004, 62 percent in 2008 and 58 percent in 2012. The current presidential campaign certainly does not lack in voter interest.

The Washington Post has partnered with SurveyMonkey, a new online polling outfit, to produce a massive – and I mean massive – 50-state survey using between 550 and 5,147 respondents in each state. All told, the poll registers the presidential preference of over 74,000 Americans. Overall the results show Trump doing well in some blue states and Clinton in some red states. We could see an unfamiliar red and blue map after this election is over.

Trump’s support in the Midwest, where the electorates are generally older and whiter, appears stronger and offers the possibility of gains in places Democrats carried recently. He has small edges in two expected battlegrounds — Ohio and Iowa — and is close in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, each of which Democrats have won in six consecutive elections.

At the same time, however, Trump is struggling in places Republicans have won consistently and that he must hold to have any hope of winning. These states include Arizona and Georgia, as well as Texas — the biggest surprise in the 50-state results. The Texas results, which are based on a sample of more than 5,000 people, show a dead heat, with Clinton ahead by one percentage point.

These results will be added to tomorrow’s projection calculations.

CNN has released their latest national poll. Trump has moved into the lead by two points. That’s a stark contrast to their previous survey showing Clinton up by eight points in the middle of her convention bounced back in early August. Despite the positive data for Trump, today’s EP Poll Average for the Trump vs. Clinton head-to-head matchup still has Clinton maintaining a 4.3-point lead.

Republican Richard Burr is in a surprisingly close race with Democrat Deborah Ross to retain his Senate seat. In an effort to keep the seat secure, the Senate Leadership Fund, a pro-GOP PAC, is committing $8.1 million in advertising over the coming weeks.

The Senate Leadership Fund announced Thursday that it has reserved $8.1 million in TV ads supporting Burr. The super PAC is connected to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and the spending is a clear sign that Republicans view Democrat Deborah Ross’ campaign as a serious threat.

The GOP’s efforts to keep the majority in the Senate must include a successful defense of this seat. The current projection for the 2016 Senate elections shows Republicans losing a net of four seats, leaving the Senate in a 50-50 toss-up situation. The North Carolina Senate race is currently listed as Weak GOP Hold