Sun, Oct 13

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis

Teddy Bridgewater threw for 9.2 yards per pass play last week but I’m not completely convinced by the performance. Bridgewater is still averaging -4.0 air yards to the sticks, which is on pace for the lowest of any quarterback since Next Gen Stats starting tracking it in 2016. The Jaguars will likely get All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey back this week just in time to cover Michael Thomas, who leads the NFL with 2.95 yards per route run. Calais Campbell’s 25 pressures are most among all interior defenders and he should get into the backfield with regularity lining up across from right guard Larry Warford, who ranks 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. Bridgewater will be forced into check-downs with pressure coming up the middle. Our numbers show Jacksonville’s defense surrendered 5.4 points to Christian McCaffrey receptions last week and they could struggle to contain Alvin Kamara, who is gaining 1.93 yards per route run (5th). The Saints ground game is below average despite Kamara’s league-high 0.39 avoided tackles per rush and it could be dangerous with improved blocking.

Jags’ rookie QB Gardner Minshew has a special connection with fellow rookie DJ Chark, who is averaging 2.76 yards per route run (4th). Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore is getting by on the reputation he developed during his Pro Bowl rookie season in 2016, but he has been terrible since. Lattimore ranked in the bottom 15 in yards allowed per cover snap last season and this year he is one of only 2 qualifying cornerbacks conceding more than 2 yards per cover snap. Chark is capable of continuing his successful start in this matchup if Minshew has time to get him the ball. Jawaan Taylor and Will Richardson are both below average tackles and have little chance of slowing down Pro Bowl edge rusher Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport, who leads the league in pass rushing efficiency.

This is probably going to be Teddy Bridgewater’s first loss since taking over for the injured Drew Brees. We believe the Saints are deserved underdogs as our model makes Jacksonville a 2.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.9. Jacksonville also applies to a 75-36-4 ATS home bounce-back situation this week, so I’ll lean with the Jags.