Memphis on cusp of losing distinction as state’s largest city

One of many construction cranes sprouts from the Nashville skyline where a robust economy has propelled the state capital's population to become the largest city in Tennessee. This view is from the cabin of a crane operator working on the Westin Nashville Hotel. (Shelley Mays/The Tennessean)(Photo: Shelley Mays)

October 20, 2015 — Restoration of the historic Chisca Hotel is one of Memphis' many success stories, but the city's skyline has changed little in 30 years while population growth has been slow. (Mike Brown/The Commercial Appeal) (Photo: MIKE BROWN)

After nearly 120 years as Tennessee's largest city, Memphis is on the verge of surrendering that title to fast-growing Nashville, census estimates released Thursday show.

As of July 1 of last year, Memphis clung to a 1,160-person edge in population — 655,770 to 654,610, according to the estimates. The gap, which had totaled almost 12,000 just a year earlier, closed as Memphis lost 712 residents and Nashville gained 9,881. As recently as the 2010 Census, Memphis had about 45,000 more residents than Nashville.

The latest census numbers, which cover municipalities and other 'sub-county' areas, reaffirm a continuing lack of growth not only in Memphis but in many of its wealthy suburbs. Four of the six suburban municipalities in Shelby County sustained slight drops in population, with only Bartlett and Collierville registering modest increases.

But if the figures show Memphis is not growing, they also confirm that it's not in rapid decline, said John Gnuschke, director of the Sparks Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Memphis.

'We can take pride in that we've at least been stable, which is more than a lot of cities can say,' Gnuschke said.

Memphis became the state's largest city with the 1900 Census, when its population surged to 102,320 compared to 80,865 for Nashville. That achievement, which marked a dramatic rebound from the yellow fever epidemics that devastated the city during the 1870s, touched off wild celebrations that included parades and dancing in the streets.

'My sense is, it has always been a point of pride for Memphis that we were larger than Nashville,' said Wayne Dowdy, senior manager of the history department for the Memphis Public Library and Information Center. 'It was a tangible way that we could argue that we were more significant than our sister city.'

Today, comparisons between the two cities are complicated by their differing forms of government.

In 1962, voters in Nashville and Davidson County approved the nation's first fully unified metro government, meaning the city's and county's boundaries — except for a few satellite communities — became the same for population purposes. Memphis is one of seven municipalities within Shelby County, which remains by far the state's most populous county with more than 938,000 residents.

Nashville's metro area, with a population of 1.83 million, is much larger than the nine-county Memphis area, which has an estimated 1.34 million people. A 10-county region encompassing Nashville is expected to grow to a population of 2.6 million by 2035, according to projections by the local planning organization.

Gnuscke said Memphis remains hobbled by a shortage of high-quality jobs. Although the city in recent years secured some major economic development project — most notably the Electrolux and Mitsubishi Electric plants — it needs those kind of investments almost annually if it is to begin growing again, he said.

The Memphis-area municipalities that did show growth between 2014 and last year include Bartlett, which gained an estimated 314 residents for a total of 58,579, and Collierville, which added 214 for a population of 48,863. Four suburbs in Mississippi also grew: Hernando added 212 residents, while Horn Lake increased by 150 people, Olive Branch added 550 and Southaven increased by 774, according to the estimates.

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