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By: Ashok Malik

Narendra Modi's decision to travel to Amethi in the hours before campaigning closed in the eastern Uttar Pradesh constituency had a context. For weeks, Amit Shah, the BJP's election manager in the state, had been telling senior party colleagues that Amethi was not going to be a cakewalk for Rahul Gandhi, as it had been in 2004 and 2009. Five years ago, Rahul won by 370,000 votes and the BJP candidate finished third. Given this history, few paid attention to Shah.

This past week, when Shah travelled to Amethi for a review, he sensed his initial assessment had not been incorrect. He phoned Modi, urged him to cancel a rally in another constituency and come to Amethi instead. That is what began the BJP's last-round assault in a seat no Nehru-Gandhi family candidate has lost since 1977.

Unlike in other parts of the country, where Modi and his party are attacking the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and its legacy, the battle in Amethi has narrowed down to one against the incumbent MP. Memories of the Gandhis are strong in Amethi, as is a sense of loyalty. When spoken to, people have good words for Rajiv Gandhi, and recall his years and visits.

True, there is a sense of exaggeration to what Rajiv achieved - as could happen when any of us succumbs to nostalgia - but at least some of this is grounded in the economic projects Rajiv brought to Amethi as prime minister in the 1980s. In contrast, there is growing discontent against Rahul.

Whether this has reached critical mass will be known only on May 16, but Amethi voters are clearly disappointed. Many people referred to the old and shut-down Malavika Steel facility that Rahul had promised would be taken over by the public-sector Steel Authority of India and begin production. The factory is still not in operation.

The absence of a Samajwadi Party candidate is proving to be an imponderable. Amethi has 1.5 million voters, of whom 175,000 are Yadavs. These Yadavs, along with some 45,000 voters from related OBC communities, form the SP base.

With no SP nominee, they were expected to do a deal with the Congress and back the overwhelming winner. This time, like elsewhere in UP, pockets of the SP's OBC voters are looking to the BJP. Amit Shah is praying this happens in Amethi as well. A final deciding factor relates to Rahul's two rival candidates.

Smriti Irani of the BJP has run an energetic campaign, spoken with aplomb and travelled deep into the constituency. When she entered Umra, the gram pradhan told her she was the first Lok Sabha candidate to come to the village since Independence! Yet, it has to be said that Kumar Vishwas of the Aam Aadmi Party has had an equally grueling campaign, has camped in Amethi for months now and was the first to give voters the impression that Rahul could be challenged and - maybe, just maybe - defeated.

Smriti Irani is hoping to capitalise on the initial stirrings of revolt that the AAP candidate was responsible for, present the BJP and Modi as the only viable option and take away the entire oppositional and dissenting vote. On the other hand, if Kumar Vishwas holds on to enough of those he has persuaded to his cause and splits the non-Congress vote, then Rahul could win in a canter. In that case, the Congress vice-president would benefit from the presence of AAP. This suggests another paradox in this election of twists and surprises.

In states such as Punjab and Haryana, the Congress could lose due to the presence of AAP and the fact that AAP candidates have cut into Congress votes. In Amethi, AAP may divide voters who are looking for an alternative to Rahul and end up helping the Congress. Will it? We'll know in 10 days.