A refined, intelligent open forum for discussion about (mostly) local politics in the Tenth Congressional District and Lake County, Illinois.

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Happy New Year and a Look at the Presidential Matchup

Happy New Year to everyone, and our best wishes here at Team America to you all for a happy and prosperous one!

First, a housekeeping item from The Management:

Regular readers will note off late that, as sometimes happens, tempers in comments can flash a bit in the vigorous give-and-take among commentors that we usually encourage. Lately, though, some of it's gotten a little out of hand and, frankly, is getting a little stupid and irritating.

We like having viewpoints challenged, records of candidates and politicians examined and debated, and healthy debate about the issues of the day (try to get fair treatment like that on a liberal blog).

But when the back-and-forth degenerates to simple 'I know you are (or your side/party/whatever is) but what am I?', the blog becomes a lot less fun to read and participate in. So, I'm giving everyone fair warning that comments that are just juvenile and have no redeeming intellectual value are going to be deleted. If you have something of value to add to the discussion, regardless of your viewpoint (and our track record proves that we respect all comers who have something intelligent to say), it'll be recognized. If not, see ya.

'Nuf 'Sed.

Now, to the topic of the day. We don't spend a ton of time on national politics here, as other forums can do that a lot better; the focus of this blog has really always been local Tenth District/Lake County stuff. But, we can't ignore the fact that this is a presidential election year, and numerous comments have already noted the downballot effect that the presidential race will have on our local elections, particularly in the 10th Congressional District. It's still an eternity in politics 'till the November election, and we don't even have a clear Republican nominee yet. But, the latest polling in Iowa shows Romney to be the front-runner, which position was in doubt for much of the past 60 days, with Rick Santorum coming on strong.

What does that mean? My personal thought it that undecided Republicans are finally getting to the point where they must make a decision (and Iowans largely show respect their first-in-the-nation status by putting a lot of thought and consideration into their votes, and demand the candidates show up in person to defend themselves and their platforms), and while many Mom and Pop Republicans have flitted from candidate to candidate to give them a 'test drive,' the closer the actual caucus vote comes, the more the question shifts to who will have the best chance in November to beat Obama. The fast answer to that question, almost from the first day of this cycle, seems to have be Romney, and the latest Rasmussen polling seems to support the notion that Romney in fact has a good shot to dethrown Obama. But, Hillary also figured she was the 'inevitable' candidate, and look what happened there.

We saw what happened to Newt Gingrich's lead in Iowa evaporate after about $8 million in negative ads flooded the airwaves; similarly, once Team Obama gets back to focusing on Romney as the clear GOP nominee (which they have taken only baby steps towards so far) with about a billion dollars to smash him with, we'll have to see where those head-to-head numbers look in September-October.

Anyway, getting back to my original point, what does everyone think the impact of the Presidential race will have on our local candidates across the board? My sense tells me that there is going to be a serious enthusiasm gap among the Democrats in rallying to Obama's banner this time around. He's gravely disappointed many of his most fervent followers, and his strategy now must be to create fear in his supporters that, as disappointing as he's been, the other side would be far worse, repealing ObamaCare, cutting taxes for the billionaires, and turning their backs on the poor and middle class. Will that message drive Dems to the polls this fall? It remains to be seen, but I have always suspected that in Illinois, now that people have gotten the historic thrill out of voting once for Obama out of their systems, and knowing that it's almost certain that Obama will win Illinois no matter what, Obama's coattails in this state will be quite short (more common people than you might think apparently understand that under the Electoral College system, as long as Obama is thought to be a lock on the state already, it gives all but the most zealous 2008 Obama supporters a great excuse to keep their money, avoid working the race, and maybe even finding more important things to do on election day).

Given that a moderate Republican like Mark Kirk has shown he can win the state, perhaps Obama should not be quite so complacent. But, in any case, unless the local Dems show up to the polls in some serious force this fall, local pols like Congressman Bob Dold have more than a fighting chance, even in some of these new districts.

One of the side stories in this race I have been watching with interest is speculation that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden will switch VP-SOS roles, and this will be matched up against whatever GOP candidates wins the nomination with former SOS Condolezza Rice.

I think both these scenarios are possible; Obama will play the Hillary card only if he feels so desperate that he thinks Hillary is his only lifeline to a second term; his ego won't allow him to go down that road unless he's convinced it's the only option (watch, though, the public story will be that it's all because Uncle Joe Biden just really would rather be SOS, and heck, Obama's a nice guy so he agreed to throw Joe a bone -- or some other ridiculous rationalization. Bleech.)

31 comments:

Anonymous
said...

A great big thank you TA for the first part of your column. Those assinine name identifications and the silly silly comments of those posters really need to stop. I'm taking you at your word (cuz I've known you a long time and you are a standup guy) that you'll delete the inappropriate. Happy New Year friend - see you along the event and campaign trail.

The guy in charge who sez he's a nice guy nonetheless wants us to know 'So, I'm giving everyone fair warning that comments that are just juvenile and have no redeeming intellectual value are going to be deleted.'

If past is any indication this means;

Things that are OK =name calling comments like Pup, Commies, Children, and Vile while making up awful things about people's families and businesses

Things that are note OK =pointing out how juvenile and degenerate the above comments are (unless you work for Bob Dold or Mark Kirk. Than its ok)

I'm gonna file this memo away for future reference under Good To Know in 2012

If you want to have a honest intellectual debate then have one. But that would require all the conservatives here to write things that are honest and intellectual :)

and here I thought that 2012 would bring some normalcy to our nation and to this Blog. Doesn't seem likely after reading the second post. To assume that all of us work for Dold or Kirk or any candidate is puzzling. To assume that we are all right wing kooks is a mystery. One thing is certain, TA, these new folks should really find their own Blog space and soon.

You sometimes refer to another blog, CapitolFax (although it happens to lean a bit to the Left, it too is informative). I seem to recall there periodic warnings that violating some basic rules may result in a permenent ban.

Yes, Anon. 4:07, that's more or less the idea. Regulars may recall that we banished Rob_N for a time, although we let him come back on honorable probation. This new "Dold Whiner" guy is even more annoying than Rob_N, and not nearly as insightful, so that may be where he's headed.

If anyone else is the nominee he will do very very very badly in the new 10th.

It's worth pointing out while looking for down ballot implications the mass gop held the 2 congressional seats they had when he ran against ted kennedy in 1994 (a good gop year for republicans including moderates), but didn't make any progress in 2002 (good gop year)when he ran or 04 (mediocre year)and 06 (awful year) while he was in office.

Part of me thought went this started Kirk would back huntsman because of his china experience, moderate profile, but you never know what kind of relationship he has with him and what he thought of his work at foggy bottom.

More like your kitchen your rules. Can't take the heat from a bright light of truth just banish the dude turning on the light switch eh?

Intellectualist Honesty at its finest.

At least you admit Rob N is insightful. Amazing to see you admit that after all the name calling you kids dump on anyone you disagree. Maybe there's hope for you cats yet in a Darth Vader "theres good in him I know it!" sorta way

Yep. Thats right. Long time lurker. With 2012 on deck figured it best be time to start giving you some of the caster oil you've been dishing out.

Not surprising y'all are whining about the taste of it and just want to play in your sandbox by yourselfs. I am surprised how quick you spit the medicine back out and whipped out your Ban threat.

Just when things were getting fun.

----- And Lil Fokker is obviously pessimistic because the GOP field is so gawdawful weak. Rick Santorum is in the 3-spot going into Iowa?

I'd be griping about blog commenters and ignoring the harsh cold reality thats about to set in if I were in your shoes to.

Bozo - we've been taking heat here in the Team America kitchen since 2007, thanks very much. In in that time we've had plenty of folks of differing opinions with whom we've enjoyed verbal jousting over the issues of the day.

You, however, as far as we can tell, simply have nothing of substance to say.

If you want to stick around, you might try addressing the topic at hand, rather than simply trying to insult others. Better yet, just go over to Ellen's like B&B's Mom suggested, where that kind of stuff passes for high discussion.

If you think nothing of substance is being said perhaps that is because there is nothing of substance to respond to.

I mean really. Your handicapping prospects for the GOP prez field in the 10th.

And wondering out loud why your own superfans are pessimistic about the GOP chances when Rick Santorum (don't google it) is now essentially tied in Iowa with a Cranky Ol' Crackpot and Which Way is the Wind Blowing Today.

Bozo, you're not even making sense. If this blog is so uninteresting and intellectually vapid, why are you wasting your time here?

Clearly, you and some of your fellow Dems worry enough about what's going on over here that you have to monitor it, and seek to sow dissention whenever possible. You're certainly not the first, and won't be the last. But all of you have eventually sickened of Republican Truth and given up the fight. Usually after a Kirk or a Dold victory at the voting booth, coincidentially.

Now I KNOW that Lou Atsaves was correct when he said that the only thing to do with these folks is to ignore them. Sounds like the right plan, TA. The nasty nitpicking and snide remarks that add nothing to any discussion should make it easy to just ignore these people. Let's just do that and hope they go over to Ellen's place or to some other planet.

I get over the top some times, and it's something to work on, but we don't need to devote more attention to these sophomoric comments from democrat interns. Delete them and move on.

I would love to believe that romney would inspire a new generation of suburban voters to turn out and vote for republican candidates for state senate ect on down the ballot the way clinton helped people like gash in 1992, but the republican party has a lot of work to do in Illinois repairing its reputation and introducing a new generation of leaders to voters. Obama is a badly damaged incumbent, but Romney and the party as a whole will spend 0 money here trying to build their vote so the best we can hope for is neutral-which would be a vast improvement to a situation with a strong recovering economy, a powerhouse Obama and a goof like palin or perry as the nominee which could easily have been the case.

Reagan kept raising middle class taxes during his Admin. Thanks for that tax on unemployment payments by the way. Thats really helpful for the middle class when Mitt Romney ships their jobs to China.

Obama on the other hand has constantly tried to lower middle class taxes and usually has to fight the so-called anti-tax Repubs to do it. Case in point the fight to extend the middle class payroll tax cut that Mark Kirk voted AGAINST and that Repub Leader Cantor said was a waste of time. And the stim package the Repubs whine about so much included the biggest middle class tax cut in history. Dold opposed that and had no clue tax cuts were even part of it. (A obvious symptom of Empty Head Syndrome.)

You see, for as long as I can remember, I have been a proud pro-lifer. However, after reading your hacky, inane, sub-mental, un-clever and laughingly cliched posts, I now consider myself to be firmly and rabidly pro-abortion.

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About Me

Just call me Team America. "TA" for short. I'm a lawyer (but a nice guy nevertheless), family man, moderate Republican and active in local politics, but someone who tries to keep an open mind and a healthy respect for differing views. While I may disagree with what you say, I will defend to the death your right to say it.