Short-term rates continued their dramatic turn upwards after being stuck at zero for several years while long-term rates made steady advances as well. The yield curve continued to narrow and it also narrowed from the bottom up. A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

The one, three, and six-month rates rose in December while all other rates dropped. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to two months. The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month. Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The one, three, and six-month, and the one-year rates rose in November while all other rates dropped. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its one month widening streak. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

All rates rose in October. The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its two month steady streak. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. All rates rose at a somewhat similar pace to each other keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates at the same level as the previous month. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

All rates rose in September. The yield curve remained the same as the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak at four-months. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. All rates rose at a somewhat similar pace to each other keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates at the same level as the previous month. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

All short-term rates and the one-year rate rose in August while all other medium-term and long-term rates dropped. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to four-months. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. Short-term rates rose at a similar pace to the drop in long-term rates thus the yield curve narrowed equally from the bottom and the top keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates the same. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

All rates rose in July. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to three-months. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. Short-term rates rose more rapidly than long-term rates thus the yield curve narrowed mostly from the bottom increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The 30-year rate was the only one to drop in June while the three-month and the 20-year rates remained steady and all other rates rose. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to two-months. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. Although short-term rates rose, they did not rise as rapidly as the 30-year dropped and thus the yield curve narrowed mostly from the top decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Short-term rates rose in May while medium and long-term rates dropped. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and broke its one-month widening streak. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. As the one-month rate had the largest increase in both absolute and relative terms, the yield curve narrowed from the bottom increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Short, medium, and long-term rates all rose from the previous month. The yield curve widened from the previous month and broke its one-month narrowing streak. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. As the one-month rate had the smallest increase in both absolute and relative terms, the yield curve widened reducing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.