Mike Clay

Offseason Low Down

Still sittin' pretty?

As mentioned in the original article, I don’t see Scott as a breakout fantasy star. I think he deserves a larger role as a complimentary back, though, and it appears he’ll get that chance in 2012. The Bengals waited until the sixth round to draft a tailback, Ohio State’s Dan Herron, and he’s not really a threat to Scott or starter BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Speaking of Green-Ellis, he’s not a very productive runner, which is why Scott has to be on your radar. There’s a decent chance he works his way into a timeshare with Green-Ellis simply because he’s more effective. Expect to see 10-12 touches per week for Scott early on. He’s a handcuff to watch.

Prior to the draft, Binns was considered the favorite to replace Jerome Simpson as the Bengals’ starting wide receiver opposite A.J. Green. As expected, the team addressed the position with a pair of mid-round picks, leaving Binns squarely on the roster bubble. Mohamed Sanu was selected in round three, but fifth-rounder Marvin Jones is considered to be more NFL-ready and is the favorite to land the No. 2 job. Regardless, add those two rookies to slot man Jordan Shipley and Binns is looking at the No. 5 role as his best case scenario (potential injuries aside). He’s a name you can completely ignore on draft day.

The Colts basically bought a lottery ticket when they signed Avery to a one-year deal. They have poor depth at the wide receiver position and figured they’d see if Avery could get back to the 4.2 40-yard dash speed he enjoyed prior to an injury-plagued tenure with the Rams, who picked him in the second round back in 2008. The Colts, as expected, spent a pair of draft picks on the position, adding a pair of undersized, speed wideouts in T.Y. Hilton (third round) and Lavon Brazill (sixth). The team also added tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, which will mean plenty of two-tight end sets. With Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie likely to see regular reps, Avery has enough competition and carries enough risk to keep him off the fantasy radar.

The Packers, surprisingly, did not add a tailback in the draft. It seems very likely, though, that they’ll add a veteran free agent to the mix (maybe Ryan Grant returns?). In the meantime, James Starks and Alex Green are holding down the position. Starks figures to handle most of the carries (which isn’t a ton in one of the game’s pass-heaviest offenses). He’s a capable pass blocker, as well, but the speedy Green figures to spell Starks and offer some help as a pass-catcher. John Kuhn will also be in the mix as a short-yardage back, which limits Green’s chance of stealing a few touchdowns. There’s still playing time to be had, but there’s simply not a lot to love about the Packers’ running backs. Too much of the Green Bay offense runs through the passing game. He can be avoided in redraft leagues, especially if a veteran is added to the mix.

The Patriots had a handful of veteran tailbacks in to visit prior to the draft, but haven’t signed one yet and decided against selecting a back in the draft. Considering Bill Belichick’s affection for mediocre depth at the position, it’s probable that the team is still planning to add a veteran to the mix. Still, second-year backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are expected to join Danny Woodhead to form a potentially-formidable three-way attack. Ridley would handle the early downs and most of the goal line work. Vereen is an excellent change of pace back, while Woodhead can handle obvious passing downs. Although that doesn’t sound like great news for fantasy owners, there’s still plenty of upside here for Vereen. He was picked a round ahead Ridley and could easily lead the unit in touches in one of the game’s top offenses. He’s worth a look late in your draft.

Back on April 16, I posted an article here at Rotoworld called ‘Sittin’ pretty…for now’. In that piece, I investigated all 32 offensive depth charts in the hope of uncovering sleepers for the 2012 fantasy football season. I focused on players who were currently sitting in a situation that would allow them fantasy success and predicted if they’d maintain that upside following the draft.

Today, I’m going to examine the current fantasy stock of each player I highlighted in that piece. We’ll find out which players received a boost in value based on the draft selections made by their team. We’ll also take a look at those players whose stock took a major hit.

To quote myself, “If Cleveland takes Trent Richardson with pick 1.3, you can forget about seeing Hardesty more than a dozen snaps per game.” The Browns did go ahead and draft Richardson (after trading up to 1.2). Hardesty drops to No. 2 on the Browns’ depth chart and you have to imagine his roster spot is in jeopardy if he doesn’t have a strong camp and preseason. It’s more likely that he sticks as Richardson’s backup, but don’t expect to see him handling more than a half dozen snaps each week. An injury to projected workhorse Richardson is Hardesty’s only path to fantasy relevance in 2012.

The Panthers waited until round four to add a wide receiver and the player they did add, former Arkansas Razorback Joe Adams, is an undersized slot receiver. This bodes well for LaFell, as Adams is not a threat to steal work on the outside. LaFell is still going to have to deal with David Gettis, who may have beaten him out for reps a year ago had he not torn up his knee. LaFell’s prognosis is better than anticipated. The 2010 third-round pick has the tools for a breakout in year three of his career, but remember that he struggled to beat out Legedu Naanee last season. He’s a late-round lottery pick at best.

My reasoning here was that the Raiders would be unable to add a quality No. 2 back without a pick on the first two days of the draft. It turns out that they did not add any running backs via the draft, which means that Goodson is still the favorite to land the backup job behind Darren McFadden. Although he’ll see some competition from sophomore Taiwan Jones, Goodson should be in line for 7-to-9 touches on a normal week. Goodson’s bigger appeal in fantasy football is as a handcuff to the fragile McFadden, who has eclipsed 113 carries in a season only once. When you’re loading your bench with upside backs late in your draft, Goodson should be on the shopping list.

Surprisingly, the Broncos decided not to add a wide receiver in April’s draft. It’s possible they’ll still sign a free agent, but none of the available veterans really stand out as a strong force in the slot. That leaves Caldwell to compete with soon-to-be 36-year-old Brandon Stokley. Give the edge to Caldwell. It seems likely that Denver will use plenty of two-tight end sets (with Jacob Tamme working the slot), but the third receiver will be on the field enough to put Caldwell on the fantasy radar. He’s not a flashy player, but there is value in opportunity. He’s worth consideration as a WR5.

Okay, here’s my big miss…although I feel comfortable completely blaming the flow of the draft. Somehow, highly-regarded Rueben Randle fell to the Giants at the end of round two, which was too good a value for them to pass up. Although he’s considered to be a bit of a project, Randle is too talented to not be the favorite for the No. 3 wide receiver job. This is a job that helped Mario Manningham to 52 catches, 712 yards, and seven touchdowns in 16 games a year ago. Jernigan, Ramses Barden, and Domenik Hixon will all push for reps, but are unlikely to make an impact in 2012. Jernigan has a good shot at the No. 4 job, but his primary focus will be the return game.

As mentioned in the original article, I don’t see Scott as a breakout fantasy star. I think he deserves a larger role as a complimentary back, though, and it appears he’ll get that chance in 2012. The Bengals waited until the sixth round to draft a tailback, Ohio State’s Dan Herron, and he’s not really a threat to Scott or starter BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Speaking of Green-Ellis, he’s not a very productive runner, which is why Scott has to be on your radar. There’s a decent chance he works his way into a timeshare with Green-Ellis simply because he’s more effective. Expect to see 10-12 touches per week for Scott early on. He’s a handcuff to watch.

Prior to the draft, Binns was considered the favorite to replace Jerome Simpson as the Bengals’ starting wide receiver opposite A.J. Green. As expected, the team addressed the position with a pair of mid-round picks, leaving Binns squarely on the roster bubble. Mohamed Sanu was selected in round three, but fifth-rounder Marvin Jones is considered to be more NFL-ready and is the favorite to land the No. 2 job. Regardless, add those two rookies to slot man Jordan Shipley and Binns is looking at the No. 5 role as his best case scenario (potential injuries aside). He’s a name you can completely ignore on draft day.

The Colts basically bought a lottery ticket when they signed Avery to a one-year deal. They have poor depth at the wide receiver position and figured they’d see if Avery could get back to the 4.2 40-yard dash speed he enjoyed prior to an injury-plagued tenure with the Rams, who picked him in the second round back in 2008. The Colts, as expected, spent a pair of draft picks on the position, adding a pair of undersized, speed wideouts in T.Y. Hilton (third round) and Lavon Brazill (sixth). The team also added tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, which will mean plenty of two-tight end sets. With Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie likely to see regular reps, Avery has enough competition and carries enough risk to keep him off the fantasy radar.

The Packers, surprisingly, did not add a tailback in the draft. It seems very likely, though, that they’ll add a veteran free agent to the mix (maybe Ryan Grant returns?). In the meantime, James Starks and Alex Green are holding down the position. Starks figures to handle most of the carries (which isn’t a ton in one of the game’s pass-heaviest offenses). He’s a capable pass blocker, as well, but the speedy Green figures to spell Starks and offer some help as a pass-catcher. John Kuhn will also be in the mix as a short-yardage back, which limits Green’s chance of stealing a few touchdowns. There’s still playing time to be had, but there’s simply not a lot to love about the Packers’ running backs. Too much of the Green Bay offense runs through the passing game. He can be avoided in redraft leagues, especially if a veteran is added to the mix.

The Patriots had a handful of veteran tailbacks in to visit prior to the draft, but haven’t signed one yet and decided against selecting a back in the draft. Considering Bill Belichick’s affection for mediocre depth at the position, it’s probable that the team is still planning to add a veteran to the mix. Still, second-year backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are expected to join Danny Woodhead to form a potentially-formidable three-way attack. Ridley would handle the early downs and most of the goal line work. Vereen is an excellent change of pace back, while Woodhead can handle obvious passing downs. Although that doesn’t sound like great news for fantasy owners, there’s still plenty of upside here for Vereen. He was picked a round ahead Ridley and could easily lead the unit in touches in one of the game’s top offenses. He’s worth a look late in your draft.