What awaits Russia in 2014

From the Winter Olympics to government reshuffles and regional polls, 2014 is looking like a big year for Russia.

The new year will offer new challenges for the Russian
authorities, on top of the problems carried over from 2013. Government
reshuffles remain a possibility, as do changes in the senior management
structure of state-run corporations.

Virtually none of the country's pressing problems were resolved in 2013, and
new ones are cropping up.

Gearing up for the Olympics

The most urgent priorities of 2014 were highlighted by a tragic
series of terrorist attacks in Volgograd at the end of last year, with only six
weeks to go before the Winter Olympics in Sochi. These developments
necessitated tighter security and more decisive antiterrorist measures.

Volgograd, which had just recovered after a bus explosion two
months before, beefed up street security with Cossack patrols; Cossacks also
arrived in Sochi to guard the upcoming Olympic events. The Russian civil
aviation authority banned all liquids in carry-on baggage except vital
medicines. The first two months of 2014 will certainly be marked by nervousness
and stringent security measures.

In the past two years, many public servants and political experts named the
Olympics as the event after which the country's current government system should
brace for radical changes—from sackings of senior management at state
corporations and high-profile corruption scandals, to the dismissal of the
government. Analysts close to the Kremlin predict that, at the very least, a
redistribution of functions should be expected among the deputies of Prime
Minister Dmitry Medvedev.

Those who should worry most about their future are the heads of the state-run
corporations that took part in the construction of Olympic infrastructure in
Sochi. The government has recently launched an all-out campaign against large
infrastructure monopolies by freezing their rates and instructing them to cut
costs. The president and government are reported to be frequently discussing
the necessity of replacing the heads of these companies, many of whom have
remained at the helm for around a decade.

Developing an economic and social policy that would ensure the current system's
stability would require the elites to consolidate, something they have been
unable to do so far.

Assorted elections

The government will have to find a way of rendering any political
conflicts less destructive for the entire system. Furthermore, in the next year
or two the Kremlin will have to decide on a strategy for the 2018 presidential
election.

Another factor affecting the political decisions of 2014 will be the upcoming
2016 parliamentary polls. This will be the last year of unpopular decisions:
from 2015 on, any reforms will be suspended so as not to antagonize the
electorate.

Fourteen Russian regions will hold gubernatorial elections in 2014. In most of
these territories, the incumbent regional leaders will also be running. An
early gubernatorial election will be held in St. Petersburg (which is headed by
a governor, not a mayor); it is not clear whether current governor Georgy
Poltavchenko will attempt to get re-elected.

The most interesting polls will be held in Moscow, which is to elect its new
city council this year.

High-profile judicial developments

March 2 may
become the most significant day of the year. This is when Platon Lebedev,
former Yukos owner Mikhail Khodorkovsky's business partner, is expected to be
released from a penitentiary in Arkhangelsk Region. There is however a
possibility that the Supreme Court will set Lebedev free earlier than that.

Opposition figure Alexey Navalny will face a new trial. He and his brother,
Oleg, have been charged with embezzling funds of two companies.

The problem of immigration is set to remain quite topical in the 2014.

In terms of conservative ideological initiatives, there will not be many in
2014. The overall trend towards bolstering the traditional values will
continue, but there will be fewer legislative attacks on sexual minorities and
perceived offenders of religious feelings. If the president's address to the
Federal Assembly is anything to go by, the government's priorities this year
will be mostly economic rather than ideological.