關於著者、Analysys Mason

圖表清單

"Service revenue will grow in the seven largest markets in Latin America between 2015 and 2020, apart from Brazil and Venezuela, where growth will be affected by adverse economic conditions."

The following factors represent the main drivers behind a negative service revenue revision of our previous Latin America forecast from June 2015.

Growth in the mobile user base in Brazil and Colombia will be slower than previously expected.

Competitive pressure from low-end entrants and mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) in several countries has increased.

The macroeconomic outlook for the region is worse than previously forecast.

Stringent regulatory measures (predominantly in Brazil and Mexico) will have a significant effect on revenue across the region.

The region's fixed voice user base is expected to decline more quickly than expected.

Nevertheless, regional growth will continue because there is still a significant opportunity for adoption of high-speed fixed broadband and mobile data usage - both in terms of smartphone and 4G penetration.

This report provides:

an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015-2020, previously published in June 2015) of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for LATAM as a whole and for seven key countries.

an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant US dollars

changes to historical data because of newly available information.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverage

Major KPIs

Regions modelled

Latin America (LATAM)

Countries modelled individually

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Mexico

Peru

Venezuela

Connections
Mobile

Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

Prepaid, contract

2G, 3G, 4G

Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

Narrowband voice, VoBB

DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue
Mobile

Service, retail

Prepaid, contract

Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

Service, retail

Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS

DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

SIMs, handset

Prepaid, contract

Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Table of Contents

5. Executive summary and regional forecasts

6. Revenue growth has been revised down as the macroeconomic outlook is more negative and stringent regulatory measures are coming into effect

7. Fixed and mobile internet take-up will continue to drive revenue growth in the region

8. Smartphones and LTE: The LTE user base in the region will reach 156 million in 2020, with growing opportunities for data monetisation

9. Key regional changes since our previous forecast

10. Forecast revision: The stagnating economy of Brazil, the region's largest market, is the main driver of a more negative outlook