One of the nicest bits of commentary in recent days came from CIBC‘s Todd Coupland over the weekend. Though he has a Market Weight rating on the shares, he thinks even a modest success with BB10 could lift the outlook for the company.

And as evidence of lingering dedication to the platform, Coupland included in his report a pic snapped at the recent Detroit Auto Show, where, as he understands, all the Wall Streeters there to kick the tires were also crowding the BlackBerry chargers:

The Street, meanwhile, offered some skeptical notes this morning on RIM’s effort to revive the BlackBerry.

UBS’s Amitabh Passi and Phillip Huang this morning reiterated a Neutral rating on the shares and a $9.50 price target, writing that the “odds remain stacked against RIM”:

With a new tag line, “Re-designed. Re-engineered. Re-invented”, RIM is attempting a come back, but it appears late, at least in its current form […] From a timing perspective, BB10 appears a couple of years too late. Further, for RIM to succeed, we believe it will need to energize and re-ignite the fire in its highly lucrative subscriber base in western markets (revenues down 50-65% y/y in F3Q13), where we believe both Apple (AAPL) (iOS) and Google (GOOG) (Android) have amassed significant momentum and subscriber lock-in (think iPhone, iPad, iTunes, iMac, iCloud). RIM will also need to contend with device vendors such as Samsung with tremendous scale, marketing muscle, and distribution prowess. In our opinion, Apple, Google, and Samsung all have a much broader and complete vision focused on multiple screens and content (e.g. Google Search, Google+, Google drive, maps, etc). While emerging markets are likely to remain relevant for RIM, we fear that BB10 price points will be beyond reach for many subscribers in these markets. As evidenced in FY12, RIM’s business model cannot be sustained simply on its success in emerging markets.As we wrote over a year ago, we still believe RIM’s best chance at success longer term would be to exit the hardware business and become a software and device independent mobile device management (MDM) company. Here again, time is against RIM but given its installed enterprise base and reputation for security, we believe it has a reasonable chance of success […] With RIM’s stock having tripled off its lows in September 2012, and now trading at just around book value (tangible book just below $12/share) and with a market cap of $8.5 billion, we see limited upside to shares near-term.

Wedge Partners‘s Brian Blair is similarly skeptical, arguing that the Street “has erroneously baked in a very positive consumer response” and that tomorrow is “likely to be a sell-the-news event”:

RIM has rallied on the hopes that BB10 and the accompanying devices (6 this year, according to RIM execs) can stave off the company’s bleeding, and boost unit growth and lift ASPs and margins in the quarters to come. The problem is that the BB10 subscriber base remains at zero, with not a single unit sold. While we admit that many of the pictures and videos of the Blackberry Z10 device show a solid effort to meet the functionality of iOS and Android, we have yet to see a key BB10 feature that we feel will pull users away from those operating systems. Some bullish estimates are calling for 18 – 20 million units of BB10 devices in 2013; our expectation is for half of that. We think 8-9 million units globally is likely obtainable.

Among the things Blair is looking to hear about at the event tomorrow are whether,

RIM [is] advertising it or are carriers supporting it with heavy campaigns? […] When it arrives in stores, are salespeople pushing it? Numerous carriers have said they will carry BB10, but sales will depend largely on how it is sold […] It will likely launch at $199, but it may need to be less to entice users away from Android/iOS/Windows devices […] What does RIM have to do to make it compelling to consumers/enterprise and what will that cost? A gross margin hit may happen out of the gate as RIM ramps the new devices, even if the ASP is initially higher than BB7 devices […] Is there any indication that consumers are waiting for this device? This is a tough thing to gauge, but the first two months of sales will be telling […] Better Mousetrap?: Does BB10 have a killer app or feature? Does the “peek” feature or multitasking make it a better Smartphone than what is on the market? This may be the most important question for the product.

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There are 20 comments

JANUARY 29, 2013 12:45 P.M.

freddysrevng wrote:

Tiernan - 2 posts on RIMM today..... Just wondering... Is there not ONE POSITIVE thought about BB 10 anywhere in the world that you could write about today?

Are there any?

One?

How about a "Hold Recomendation"?

No? Only "Negative/Bashing News"?

I think that is WONDERFUL..... That's what has taken us from $6.23 to $15.00 and we are just getting started...

Start "Brainstorming" about all the negative things you can say and post tomorrow about the lauch.... PLEASE...

Thanks, your Buddy Uncle Freddy...

ENTER BB 10 .....

JANUARY 29, 2013 12:52 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

Wow, Tiernan! You'll be there to bash RIM live?!?!

JANUARY 29, 2013 12:54 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

Wow, you'll be there to bash RIM live?!?!?

JANUARY 29, 2013 12:55 P.M.

Insync wrote:

Performance will depend on delivery. There are many features of the new OS that clearly surpass, not just meet, what is available from Android and iOS devices. With NFC the new BB10 OS can become a digital wallet which will transform connectivity. Entry fobs, credit cards, identity documents will be superfluous. Rimms fate is in its own hands. If it delivers a sound device with the capabilities advertised it could well be a game changer.

JANUARY 29, 2013 1:05 P.M.

goberry wrote:

Im rooting for blackberry. I like my android but i was in love with my blackberry. Id happily switch off android if the bb10 is half as decent as my droid.

JANUARY 29, 2013 1:06 P.M.

Re RIM and the 4 R's . . . wrote:

Re- Engineered.

Re-Designed.

Re-Innvented

+Re-Jected.

JANUARY 29, 2013 1:09 P.M.

A Pull wrote:

Well...we have the analyst community and we have the tech community. Their views could not be more divergent as to BB10's success.

JANUARY 29, 2013 1:13 P.M.

A Pull wrote:

Well..the analyst community and the tech community couldn't be more divergent in their views of BB10's attractiveness and potential for success.

JANUARY 29, 2013 1:18 P.M.

freddysrevng wrote:

TIernan -

The TRAP that you and many of your ilk has, unfortunately, fallen into and has been repeated ad nauseum is around the concept of "how many existing BlackBerry owners will buy a BB 10 phone".....

Are there really only 80 million people on the entire EARTH who will consider buying a BB 10 phone? Really only 80 mil?

Paul how many people live in Indonesia, UAE, India, South America and other countries/continents on this planet where BlackBerry is far more "Popular" for the moment, than in the United States?

If you can figure that out.... you will be more credible.

ENTER BB 10 ...... 1/30/13 NYC and All Over the World ... 10 EST

JANUARY 29, 2013 2:05 P.M.

person wrote:

hahah he must be very worried since he keeps writing stuff about how bad RIMM is! BB10's OS is awesome. This is coming from a creative director in the high end advertising business who literally lived with apple all his life!

JANUARY 29, 2013 2:11 P.M.

Maxwell wrote:

Are these the same analysts that called sell at $6 per share? My guess is yes. That pretty much sums it up. BTW lock in? THis is virtualyl non-existant in the smartphone business. Most apps are used for a month or two only. Add up the number of apps you actually use on a daily basis that are not free subscription apps like the NYT or the FT (where you buy content from the owner and the apps is free). If you do that you'll see apps might add about $10 at most to any switching cost. If analysts had to defend what they write ina Business School (where I teach) most would fail.

JANUARY 29, 2013 2:27 P.M.

JD Sharpe wrote:

Tomorrow, BlackBerry will introduce a new paradigm to the tech world and the world. The new BlackBerry is not just a phone, it is an entire mobile platform. The media currently does not understand that.

Do these people suggest that once you have had an Android or IPhone, you will only ever have that phone for the rest of your life? Sounds a little unrealistic to me. There is a massive market out there upgrading phones every two years and from the surveys I have seen, they are not all 100% happy with their product.

It wont take much to turn a profit at RIM. I would also bet there are a few aces up their sleeves in the near future. Just be patient and don't sell as these guys release more of these foolish articles.

JANUARY 29, 2013 2:52 P.M.

ValleyOracle wrote:

<>
<>
<>
Yes, people on Wall Street use Blackberry's; but how about people on Main Street?
Maybe RIMM should charge all the Wall Street guys ultra premium prices for the BB10 phone
<>
:-)

JANUARY 29, 2013 3:47 P.M.

@ freddysrvng wrote:

Hi Babe.

Re Indonesia, UAE, South America, India...

We will help you pack. Tootle loo and bon voyage.

JANUARY 29, 2013 8:54 P.M.

electro wrote:

As usual, Wall Street accountants have difficulty wrapping their brains around any sort of technical innovation.

JANUARY 29, 2013 10:36 P.M.

ben johnston. wrote:

There was an article last year that says that nobody in the US has a BB, yet they dominate the chargers. That is too funny.
Long Rimm.

JANUARY 29, 2013 11:40 P.M.

johnsontreig wrote:

Some of this stuff is silly.
Passi and Huang "we believe both Apple (AAPL) (iOS) and Google (GOOG) (Android) have amassed significant momentum and subscriber lock-in "
What lock-in. Studies show that most smartphone users use 5 or less apps on a weekly basis. Switiching platforms for these people will likely cost less than $15.00 total.
Android (e.g. Google Search, Google+, Google drive, maps, etc).
News to the authors. Google Search, Google+, Google Drive, maps etc. is a lot more important to Google than Android. The more platforms it is on the better for them. They want them on BB10.

Blair
"The problem is that the BB10 subscriber base remains at zero, with not a single unit sold." Funny quote. This is very common with products before they are released for sale.

"Blackberry Z10 device show a solid effort to meet the functionality of iOS and Android,". Blair likely has never used the Z10. The review sites that actually tested the Z10 typically state that BB10 performs better than either Apple or Android on many key areas of functionality (especially browsing). I imagine Blair trusts his own assumptions over real live testing.

"Does the “peek” feature or multitasking (OR THE HUB ..my addition) make it a better Smartphone than what is on the market?" Depends who you are. If you receive more than 100 emails and/or tweets and/or facebook posts a day, the answer is a definite yes.

Tiernan, like others here, I am happy that you will be at the launch event to bash BB10 live.

JANUARY 30, 2013 6:51 A.M.

Jonas wrote:

If the previous comments are the best RIM's employees can come up with, I wouldn't hold out much hope for their company. Too much self-delusion.

JANUARY 30, 2013 9:10 A.M.

Bilal wrote:

RIMM stock has already priced in for a spectacular BB10, and if there is something which Investor' did not like in Today's event in New York. I think its Bye Bye time for rimm. So far Rimm shares are higher in pre-market . So there is optimism among investor's about it

About Tech Trader Daily

Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written by Barron’s veteran Tiernan Ray. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields. Comments and tips can be sent to: techtraderdaily@barrons.com.