Non-EU immigration linked to unemployment, says report

Research by migration advisory committee suggests link between immigration and employment levels of 'native workers'

East European workers picking strawberries. The new research challenges the established academic consensus that there has been little or no direct link between immigration and employment levels in Britain. Photograph: David Wootton/Alamy

Immigration to Britain from outside Europe is linked to unemployment in depressed economic times, according to an explosive report from the government's own expert advisers.

The migration advisory committee research published on Tuesday suggests that for every extra 100 non-European migrants who come to Britain, 23 fewer British residents are employed.

The finding directly challenges the established academic consensus that there has been little or no direct link between immigration and employment levels in Britain. It flatly contradicts research from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research published on Monday, which found that even in the recent recession there was no direct impact.

The official research confirms that migration has had no impact on average wages but says that it has increased wages at the top of the wage scale but has lowered wage rates at the bottom.

It says that its conclusion that an increase of 100 additional non-EU migrants may be associated with a reduction in employment of 23 "native workers" is based on an analysis of migration and employment rates over the period 1975 to 2010.

"But this possible displacement should not be assumed to last forever: those migrants who have been in the UK for over five years are not associated with displacement of British-born workers," it adds.

The report from the Home Office-appointed migration advisory committee, however, makes clear that there has been no increase in violent crime levels as a result of recent migration, and the influx of foreign skilled workers may actually have contributed to falling crime levels as they are less likely to commit burglary and other property crime.

In terms of housing, the report estimates that skilled migration from outside Europe will generate demand for an extra 112,000 homes by 2017 – only about 8% of the additional demand for housing within the next five years with – with the effects concentrated in London and other limited parts of Britain.

The report also says recent official assessments of immigration policy that have calculated the cost to the economy of measures such as curbing overseas students should instead measure their impact on the "economic wellbeing" of the resident population rather than their impact on the gross domestic product.

Professor David Metcalf, the chairman of the migration advisory committee, said: "Assessing the impacts of migration is not a simple decision and our conclusions will require careful consideration by the government. However, our research suggests that non-European migration is associated with some displacement of British workers."

Metcalf says 160,000 British-born workers have been displaced by non-EU migrants since 2005. But he added that there was no evidence that European immigration, including Polish, had led to fewer British workers being employed.

The report was commissioned by ministers after a Home Office impact assessment put the cost to the economy of the government's curbs on overseas students at more than £2bn a year.