Trump more than a black swan event

The idea of Donald Trump becoming President of the United States at the start of the year seemed way-out-there but now it doesn't seem so fanciful. Michael Pascoe comments.

Two very long months later, that's no longer so fanciful.

I've just spent three weeks in the US and President Trump is looking more pervasive wild duck than exotic black swan.

Tonight, with the Super Tuesday bunch of US state primaries, there's a probability the boastfully racist, sectarian, protectionist Trump will take a very big step closer to winning the Republican nomination. It is his to lose.

There's the wildcard factor of voter turnout – only 54.9 per cent last time – in a country where Clinton seems to be as strongly disliked as liked.

And there's the reality of the US being a violent, over-armed society with more than its fair share of right wing extremists. (The Kalamazoo mass shooting on February 20 seemed to receive plenty of coverage because the perp was an Uber driver – the 17 shot in Kansas and three police in Virginia within the week, not so much. Uber wasn't involved.)

President Trump would be scary stuff on any number of fronts.

He promises to be bad for Wall Street as well as international trade and Mexican relations.

The conservative Republican establishment isn't just worried because Trump has promised to take on some of the worst excesses of the party's business backers, as a provocative Rolling Stone profile has documented.

Optimists and Trump apologists claim The Donald's more extreme views are just those of a show-business politician doing whatever it takes to win the US presidential race reality TV show.