Thursday, December 25, 2014

1. The economy of the world is in a state of turmoil. Not only has the oil price tumbled from USD 110/- to less than USD 60/-, but palm oil price, rubber price, share prices and the exchange rate of the Ringgit have all taken a beating, a severe beating.

2. All these things involve us, Malaysian, our commodities and our money. But we are assured and reassured that we would not be affected. We will continue to grow at the projected rate.

3. Are we!!

4. Inflation is at 3%. Can we believe it would not affect our purchasing power i.e. can we continue to buy all those things we use to buy, all the food, clothing etc.

5. Driving, flying may cost less. But earnings by Petronas will diminish a lot. And the Government used to get billions from Petronas. Will Petronas pay to Government the same amount as when 1 bbl cost USD130/-. Common sense, (not so common a commodity) says it will not. And that must affect the 2015 Government budget which was presented when oil price was at USD110/- per barrel.

6. Palm oil growers and rubber growers especially the latter are not complaining that they are not making money, certainly not the huge profits they use to make. Government has decided to help them with monetary gifts.

7. But when these people are not making money or making less money, the corporate and other taxes they pay must be less. So Government revenue will once again go down. But now Government has to give money to them. How does the Government do this without down-sizing the budget provisions for other Government obligations and needs?

8. Then there are the various impacts on business and the general public.

9. Business may or may not benefit from the fall in petroleum price. Those in the transport industry such as bus companies and airline may benefit.

10. Those involved in the oil and gas industries will suffer. They had invested at the time when oil prices were high, hoping to repay loans from the proceeds of the sale of products. With low product price they will need to sell more in a weak market to acquire funds to repay loans.

11. Contractors will find payments delayed or requests for revisions. Some contracts may have to be cancelled.

12. The depreciation of the Ringgit will affect the repayments of loans taken in USD. On the other hand imported raw materials and components would cost more, neutralizing the gain from the cost of production. There may be a demand for wage increases and revision of rates as the Ringgit devalues. Inflation will be the result.

13. For the general public there must be a lowering of the purchasing power of their incomes when acquiring imported goods or when abroad. However incoming travelers may increase if proper marketing is done.

14. Overall the worst effect will be felt by those who had borrowed in USD or have to pay for purchases made in USD.

15. Clearly the unprecedented fall in oil price and other products for export must be met with revisions in everyone’s budget. The corporations and the Government need to study closely the effect on earnings and cost of doing business. They cannot be lulled by the gains from lower cost of oil alone. Loss of income and higher costs of imports must be taken into account.

16. We are a small producer of oil, said to be 650,000 barrels a day. We are also a great consumer of oil since our use of motor vehicles is the highest in ASEAN in terms of per capita ownership. It would not be too far wrong to assume that any gain from lower oil price will be negated by lowered earnings from Petronas oil and gas. It is the same with gains in other sectors, as they will always be accompanied by losses. The important thing is to know how much is the gain as against the losses.

17. Simply assuming that we are immune to the massive and widespread decline in the prices of almost all the raw materials and goods we produce for consumption and export does not reflect the depth of our understanding of the problems we face.

18. We are a trading nation and changes affecting the world market must affect us one way or another.

Monday, December 22, 2014

2. The report was on President Putin speaking to the Russian Parliament.

3. He was saying that America and the West were trying to dismantle Russia as they did to Yugoslavia. He warned the Russian people to be prepared.

4. Then the newscaster came on the screen to ask questions of a Russian news analyst. She asked him why is Putin threatening the West.

5. The man said Putin is not threatening. He is only reacting to President Obama’s public statement that Russia is a threat to the world, second only to Ebola.

6. The newscaster repeated “but why is Russia threatening the world?”

7. Apparently she thought that when Russia is described as a threat to the West, Russia should just say “yes we are”, and its leader should say sorry, we will not say anything again.

8. It’s mind-boggling. The West is doing everything to alienate countries of the Eastern bloc so as to widen membership of NATO. Clearly this is a threat to Russia.

9. A government elected by the Ukrainians was forced through street demonstrations to resign for rejecting union with the European Union. Russia is now accused of supporting Russians in Ukraine to break away from that country. This support of the West to install undemocratically a pro-West government is okay. But Russia must not do the same for the pro-Russian people in Ukraine.

10. When MH17 was shot down, before any investigation was done, the US accused Russia of supplying the missile to the dissidents for the attack. Now we are not sure. Ukraine, Russia and the dissidents all have the same missiles. So how can American be so certain who shot the plane and whether a missile was used.

11. But not to worry. It is a good excuse for applying sanction against Russia.

12. Clearly the intention is to create problems for the Russian people so that they would overthrow Putin.

13. 50% of Russian foreign earnings comes from selling gas to Europe. Now Russia have lost that income. It should be in trouble.

14. So Russia switched the gas to Turkey. That is provocative. That is a threat.

15. Really the Russians should just lie down and starve, hating Putin.

16. But strangely Putin is more popular now with the Russians.

17. The question is who is threatening whom? Yes Russia has occupied the Crimea. But that is after an elected government was brought down by street demonstrations.

18. Russia has helped Russian dissidents in the Ukraine. Isn’t this what the West and America are doing in many countries to bring down governments and plunge countries into disorder and turmoil. Where are the weapons for the IS coming from if not from Syria where a civil war has been started and the West are busy giving weapons and money.

19. The world does not need another world war. But this time it is obvious that the West is being provocative by applying sanctions and depriving Russia of its valuable European market.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

1. Spain has decided to recognise Palestine. And now France and Ireland have also done likewise. There is even a suggestion that the European Union would do the same.

2. It is all long overdue. If the Europeans care to think, it is they who started the terrorism in the Middle East. If they care to admit, all these violence, killings, wars etc started when the Europeans created the state of Israel by seizing Arab Palestine. Before that terrorism did not plague the Middle East and the rest of the world. Now there are irregular terrorists and state terrorists.

3. To the Europeans Israel can do no wrong. They can massacre the Arabs. That is acceptable. For three Israelis killed a thousand Arabs must pay with their lives. A hundred thousand will have their houses destroyed. And humanitarian aid cannot be given to the victims. The Europeans by saying or doing nothing virtually agreed that the punishment is right.

4. There was a Palestinian state before Israel was created and recognised. Then Israel decreed there is no such thing as a Palestinian state. The Europeans agreed. They acknowledged there is no Palestinian State, only a Palestinian Authority. And the United Nations, the creation of the Europeans derecognised Palestine as a state. And the state just vanished. And the frustrated Arabs resorted to the primitive weapons they had. They tie themselves with bombs. But mostly they kill other Arabs.

5. In “retaliation” the Israelis killed them with bombs and rockets dropped from the skies. The Israeli strategy is to out terrorise the terrorists. States are allowed to terrify people. Their terrifying acts do not constitute terrorism. It is to restore law and order. The Israelis are only retaliating.

6. But who is retaliating against whom. The Arabs kill three. The state of Israel and its democratically elected Government announced that it would teach the Arabs a lesson. They killed thousands, destroyed cities. This is Israeli retaliation. But the Arabs killed three people because their own stone-throwing children have been arrested and some shot and killed for throwing stones against bullet-proof tanks. Unable to do anything more they retaliate by killing three Israelis.

7. And so violence escalated as anger and frustration mount among the Arabs caused now by more Israeli settlements in Jerusalem. And the Europeans declare that the Arab/Jew war is a religious war. It is a religious war because Jerusalem Arabs killed four Jews praying in a Synagogue. Israeli forces have killed the Arabs involved, destroyed their houses and those of their extended families. And more destruction is promised.

8. When a Jew fired a machine gun killing dozens of Arabs praying in a mosque, that was not an act to provoke a religious war. When Jews build illegal settlement on Arab land and in Jerusalem that is not provocation. The Jews will claim and their Europeans allies on both sides of the Atlantic will agree it is just retaliation. It is double standards of the most blatant kind.

9. Truly Europeans are in a state of denial. They refused to acknowledge that they started the “terrorism” in the Middle East which is now spreading throughout the world.

10. Their refusal to admit that it is their need to solve the Jewish problem in Europe is what prompted them to agree to the setting up of Israel on Palestinian land. They refuse to admit that their unmitigated backing for Israeli crimes is what forced the beleaguered Palestinian Arabs to resort to unconventional means to regain the land stolen from them.

11. They refuse to admit that their refusal to recognise the state of Palestine at the behest of the Israelis is what aggravated the frustration, the anger and the escalating violence.

12. The decision to recognise Palestine comes late. It is brave of Spain. And now France and Ireland. Can Europe recognise and admit its role in destabilising the Middle East, in promoting terrorism by unashamedly supporting everything that Israel does, including international crimes? Can the European link their de-recognition of Palestine with the violent reactions of the Arabs?

13. I hope the Europeans will read this. They normally don’t. They only read about themselves as seen by themselves.

14. Tell me. Are all the things that I say here fabricated lies? Is there not an iota of truth? You condemn censorship. But aren’t you censoring all the news that come to you from non-European sources? Aren’t you lying to yourselves about yourselves?

15. You are powerful. You are influential. But you prefer to delude yourselves into thinking you are right; you are innocent. And because you delude yourself you continue to bring death and destruction all over the world.

16. So don’t read what others say. Read only what you write about yourself and about the rest of the world. Your ignorance will result in your continuing to endanger the world with the unfairness and injustice of your policies and actions.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

1. I am very annoyed by the apparent exclusion of Malaysia from the investigation of MH 17.

2. The aircraft belongs to Malaysia and the pilots, staff and quite a number of the passengers were Malaysians. Yet it seems that Malaysia is only grudgingly permitted to participate in the examination of the wreck recovered. And it is not even brought back to Malaysia.

3. Granted the highest number of the passengers who lost their lives were Dutch. But under what law is the aircraft the property of the Dutch?

4. The black box was recovered but although it was handed to Malaysian authorities, the box was surrended to the Dutch and the British.

5. As far as I know the black box contains tape or electronic recording of the conversations and sounds some minutes before the crash. Can it be that Malaysians have no capacity to hear the records even? Are only the Dutch and the British capable of doing this?

6. Malaysia seems unduly grateful being allowed to participate in examining the wreckage in Holland. What is there to be grateful for?

7. As to the cause of the crash, is there something to hide? Lets fire a missile at an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. Is it true that a missile fired from the ground leaves no trail of smoke? I have been looking at the war in Syria and against the IS. Every time a missile is fired, there would be a blast of smoke and flames and a lot of noise also. But it seems no one saw the missile being fired, or the smoke trails. Maybe this is a new silent, trail-less Russian missile.

8. The U.S knew that it was a Russian missile immediately after the news of MH 17 being brought down. How did they identify the missile so quickly, even who fired etc.?

9. I remember when a U.S warship fired a missile which brought down an Iranian passenger plane. Was it mistaken identity? Or was it deliberate disregard for non-U.S lives?

10. Now on the assumption that a Russian missile was used to down MH 17, the U.S and Europe have applied sanctions against Russia. NATO seems bent on going to war against Russia.

11. The assassination of an Archduke launched the First World War which killed millions. Any little incident is enough for Europe and America to go on a killing spree.

12. And by the way where is MH 370?? Has it been pulverised into nothing as happened to the aircrafts which crashed into the Pentagon and in Pennsylvania? They left no debris at all.

13. As a Malaysian I demand that the wreckage of MH 17 be brought back to Malaysia as a matter of right. Malaysians should examine it in full view of the people. After all it is Malaysia which is being sued by the relatives of the victims.

Monday, December 8, 2014

1.​The United States assumes that it is the greatest democracy in the world and is in a position to tell others what is right and what is wrong and what they should do and what they should not do. On this assumption Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States chastised Malaysia for retaining the Sedition Act and the trial of Anwar Ibrahim.

2.​Who is Joe Biden to take the moral high ground?

3.​Being the Vice President of a country that detains people without trial for more than a decade, torturing them while in detention; a country where torture is legal, a country which has no qualms about invading other countries, killing millions of innocent people, destroying towns and villages, leaving them without electricity, water supply and sewerage systems; what right has Biden to condemn the retaining of a law to prevent racial conflicts and violence in Malaysia.

4.​Today the United States is engaged in assassinating people opposed to America. Malaysia used to detain people without trial. But the United States passes death sentences without trial, without the knowledge of the victims even. Then drones are sent to kill the designated victims. The judgements and death sentence are not made in a court of law. They are made by officials. These people appoint themselves as judges, prosecutors and executioners. This is justice as practiced by America.

5.​And America dares to claim that it is doing all these to protect democracy. What democracy is there for the innocent people killed, wounded and maimed for life? Wherever the United States goes there would be deaths and destructions.

6. ​In the United States itself there is no justice. Within a short space of time police shot and strangled three blacks. The grand jury then says that there is no case for the police killers to answer.

7.​Arrogantly one white American official says the victims were killed because they resisted arrest. I saw the picture of a black raising up both hands. Is it how Americans resist arrest. The black teenager had no arms but was shot dead. A 12 year old boy had a toy gun. He too was shot dead.

8.​Then of course there is this condemnation of the legal action taken against America’s candidate for Prime Ministership of Malaysia. The Malaysian courts have been extra lenient, taking more than five years, listening to appeals after appeals with nearly 30 postponements. In America a grand jury (whatever that may mean) decide not to indict and the criminal is free. Where is due process?

9.​America is a land stolen from the Red Indians through genocide. Americans should really bow their heads down in shame forever.

10.​Just don’t go around telling people how to behave and what they should not do. Tell it to your own people, about how Americans prosper through slavery, through discrimination against blacks and Hispanics, about spying on your own people, about your controlled media etc. That is what Joe Biden should do.

1. The price of one barrel of crude fell from US$110-00 per barrel to US$70-00.

2. Is it true it will have no effect on us (Malaysia) or that it will be good for us?

3. When the Government budget for 2015 was launched, it was premised on the price of oil being US$110-00 per barrel.

4. Obviously the Government expected its oil revenue to contribute to the budget based on this high oil price. Is it possible that the effect of the low oil price on the Government’s budget will remain the same, or will improve now that oil has gone down to US$70-00?

5. Petronas contributes to the Government a substantial sum by way of dividends and petroleum tax. Will Petronas contribution remain the same when it earns less from sale of oil, LNG and gas?

6. The oil and gas businesses which have grown very big lately was based on high cost to be paid for by high profits from oil. The capacity for payments of contracts at the old rate must be affected.

7. The lower price of oil must affect the servicing and payment of debts by producer. They have to sell more in a weak market. Profits must go down if not disappear completely. Taxes for the Government will consequently go down.

8. Unless the Government cuts its spending, the deficit must become bigger. The claim that it will not increase the deficits need to be explained.

9. When the Government reduces expenditure, a lot of businesses will suffer. Profits will go down and with it the taxes. Government revenue must decrease because of reduction in Government expenditure.

10. The pump price of petrol would only go down if subsidies remain. But the capacity to subsidise would be lowered because of less earnings and contribution by Petronas. Without subsidy the pump price will remain the same for motorists and industries. It might even go up as the Ringgit has depreciated. So the people will not enjoy the benefit from lower crude prices?

11. We import much of our raw materials and components for our industries. Mostly they are priced in USD which is now costly. We will have to pay more Ringgit for our imports. This will negate the benefits from the depreciation of the Ringgit.

12. I think we should not dismiss lightly the effect of falling oil prices. Share prices in the USA have gone down by considerably. Can we sustain our share prices, especially those concerned with the oil and gas business. Remember we went into this business when costs were high. Our expectations is that returns would also be high.

13. When returns go down due to the lower oil price, will share prices remain the same? As usual, the first to run will be the foreign investors. The locals will be left to shoulder the problems.

14. We have not yet signed the TPPA. Have we worked out what would happen when there is a massive flight to quality of foreign capital.

15. Incidentally, there is a new call for higher minimum wage. Increase in minimum wage must be accompanied by increases in wages above minimum to retain parity. Costs of production will go up and prices will go up also. We will become less competitive in the market, domestic and foreign. Some businesses will fold up. Unemployment will increase.

16. I think we should think carefully before we comment on the oil price.