Striking

Gabriel Gonzaga scored a highlight-reel headkick knockout over Mirko Cro Cop, and suddenly, he thought he was a striker.

It was a mistake.

After that fight, he would go on to lose five of his last eight, including four by (T)KO, and then finally losing a decision to Brendan Schaub at UFC 121, which earned him his initial release from the UFC.

Roy Nelson hasn't been successful in his last few fights, having gone 1-3 in his last four, but he still has a striking edge.

Nelson's last seven wins have come by (T)KO, and nine of his 16 wins total have come by strikes. No doubt who has the edge.

Variables

Roy Nelson

For Nelson, this fight is going to come down to what kind of shape he comes in at. The better the shape, the better chance he has of winning the fight. In his last fight, he came in at 246 pounds, 19 less than previous fights.

If he is down to 240 or 235, he's going to be in better shape and definitely have better cardio. That could be the difference for him. Well, that and his iron chin.

Gabriel Gonzaga

Gonzaga will be looking to make a statement in this fight, and that statement will be "I belong in the Octagon." He has a lot to prove in this fight, and a win will secure his place in the UFC for the time being.

If he comes in with a game plan and knows that his best chance is to take the fight to the ground and control Nelson, he should do well. If he decides to test Nelson's chin, that won't go over well.