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The shortfall between the demand and supply of electricity in Hungary looks set to remain over the medium term as the government struggles to implement a coherent strategy to meet the country's long-term goals and needs. However, in order to meet its ambitions to become a significant exporter of electricity, it will have to invest heavily in new nuclear generation and place greater emphasis on its renewables programme.

While growth in renewable power generation capacity is contributing to the increase in Hungary's power capacity, gas generation is expected to remain the main source of growth. Hungary is further pursuing the option of nuclear power, given that it too is a realistic low-carbon option available to state generator MVM. It has been estimated by the government that nine gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity will need to be added by 2025 and that nuclear will account for the single biggest addition.

Key trends and developments in the Hungarian electricity market:

- Hungarian power consumption is forecast by BMI to grow by an annual average of 1.69%between 2013 and 2021, reflecting the relative maturity of the country's energy market.
Growth in power generation during this period is anticipated to average 1.23% per annum, meaning there will be no dramatic change in import dependency, with existing nuclear capacity expected to continue operating

- The time taken to connect wind farms to the grid and the high costs are the main barriers to wind energy development in Hungary, according the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA)and the Hungarian Wind Energy Association (HuWEA). EWEA and HuWEA would like to see at least 1.2GW installed by 2020, which would provide about 5% of Hungary's electricity demand.

- According to BMI forecasts, non-hydro renewables generation will reach just under 3.7 terrawatt hours (TWh) by 2021. Wind power is forecast to match the government's target and reach 1.2TWh by the end of the 10-year forecast period. However, in all, these figures still fall short of government targets, but a revision of policy would accelerate growth in renewables usage.

- Power prices are relatively high when compared to those available in the country's European peers. May 2012 data, for example, shows that household customers were paying around 15.4%more than equivalent users in the Czech Republic. Hungarian prices are significantly below those of Germany, providing support for long-term export plans.
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