BP Chats

Which players do you still irrationally believe in that has not met expectations during there career yet? (sdsuphilip from San Diego)

I like players who were overhyped and now the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Brett Lawrie is a good example. Nick Castellanos is someone I believe could still be decent. It's harder on the pitching side, but I really want to believe in Rafael Montero, even though he's a complete mess at the moment. (Mike Gianella)

I need help understanding the Brett Lawrie trade. While he is no Josh Donadlson (cough), he is a 2-3 WAR 3B with some upside, and pretty cheap. Beane traded him off for 2 middling prospects, in order to clear space for.....Jed Lowrie and Danny Valencia? (Q-Ball from Chicago)

I'm not sure I'm the one to help you, as I found that move puzzling to say the least as well. The team touched on it a little in the TA yesterday, but given the prospect return Oakland got it's tough to not see the Donaldson trade as anything but an unmitigated disaster at this point. Looooot of pressure on Franklin Barreto, who I like a good bit but...doesn't look like Josh Donaldson 2.0. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28038 (Wilson Karaman)

We're 50-some games into the season, and Josh Donaldson has a slash of .316/.375/.606 overall while Brett Lawrie is hitting .265/.295/.376. Kendall Graveman has charitably been uneven. Sean Nolin is coming back from an injury. Franklin Barreto can't even hit in Stockton. Why did Billy Beane sell so low on Donaldson, who would look really great in a lineup that has hit lefties to the tune of .226/.308/.323 this season? I feel like we haven't gotten the whole story on this trade.(John from San Francisco)

Well, there were some rumors of disrespect on Donaldson's part that ended up making it into the mainstream media, so I can't imagine Beane was too torn up about seeing Donaldson go at the time.

It was a bad decision even if you're rosy as hell on Barreto. I did wonder if Beane saw something in Nolin and Graveman that he liked but neither player is going to make up the difference one Josh Donaldson makes. (Mauricio Rubio)

Is there a deal that is going very under-discussed, that you feel deserves more attention? Maybe a change of scenery that you feel will do wonders?
(AC from TX)

Someone whose opinion I trust and who works in a well-regarded FO is convinced Brett Lawrie could outplay Josh Donaldson this season. I'm not there yet (and I probably won't get there until after it happens), but that's the deal that popped to mind reading the second part of this question.

As for the first part, I'd say the Yankees' acquisition of Justin Wilson. He's a very talented pitcher who could be a monster near the back of their bullpen. Add him to Betances, Miller, Carpenter, etc. and you have the makings of a nasty group. (R.J. Anderson)

Just one more question about Toronto. News reports say that Martin's contract is back-loaded and only calls for a salary of 7M in 2015. Seeing as the team only has about 27M in guaranteed money committed beyond 2015, they should be able to go after one or two more free agents this winter, especially if they backload those contracts too. Who do you see as good fits for them that's still out there? (Kevin from Toronto)

Kevin, if there's no constraining limit to the budget, the biggest improvements to be made are likely at 2B/3B (depending on where Brett Lawrie plays) and LF. Hanley Ramirez could be a nice fit there if the Dodgers opt not to bring him back. (Daniel Rathman)

Josh Donaldson had 4 years before free agency, and the A's got an adequate, injury prone replacement in Brett Lawrie, a pair of soft-tossers in Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman, and an infielder who is years away from contributing in Franklin Barreto. Then they dealt Brandon Moss for a 24-year old second baseman who just got to Double-A in Joey Wendle. And before that, they signed DH Billy Butler to a three-year deal. Why sell off Donaldson and Moss for such paltry returns? Why bring in Butler if you're going to rebuild? What is Billy Beane doing?(John from San Francisco)

I think, emphasize think, I could come up with explanations on each of these moves on their own. But combined, they really throw me for a loop. I'm struggling to come up with an answer that's not far-fetched... We've been programmed to trust Beane, but it looks like he went all in last summer, which I loved and now he realizes that if he doesn't try and get some long-term assets for his club, it could go down the tubes quickly. I get that thought process, I'm not sure I see these moves being the best execution. Adding Butler to the mix almost feels like they changed their minds as to how to approach the offseason a few weeks into the process. Perplexing... (Sahadev Sharma)

Was Barreto the main target in the Donaldson deal, and if so, can he be good enough to make this a win for Billy Beane?(Ryan from Hey Dennis)

It's hard to say a guy like Barreto, who is so far, far away from the big leagues, was the main target, particularly when the deal included someone like Brett Lawrie. I think the A's are banking on Lawrie being healthy (risky) and producing for a few years, and anything Barreto provides 3-5 years from now is just icing on the cake. (Mark Anderson)

I finished 3rd in my 20 team dynasty league this year. The odd part is that I was 7th in Runs an 8th in RBI's, despite being 1st in home runs and utter lack of SB and AVG. How do I deal with this? I counted on guys like Maybin and Lawrie, but they failed to get me SB. I'm unsure how to deal with this. Donaldson and Upton might be my only 100 RBIs guys for example(Gila Monster from Boston)

It's difficult to answer this without looking at a roster, but I'd expect lesser disparity between R/RBI and HR next year and focus on SB and AVG instead. Counting on Cameron Maybin and Brett Lawrie is not a good start, unless "days on DL" is a stat. Try to give up some prospect depth for a high-average, 20-plus SB guy if you're trying to compete next year. (Ben Carsley)

Brett Lawrie and George Springer sleepers heading into next year? Both could easily be top 50 players if they get 600 at bats. (Daniel from Orlando)

Springer is only a sleeper in shallower formats; there is no way people aren't going to be aware of him based on the early outburst. Many still see 30-35 home runs. Lawrie fits the classification better. He hasn't lived up to his early potential in his initial, truncated season and there is definitely the possibility he improves. That being said, I wouldn't have him in my Top 50 for '15. (Mike Gianella)

Hey Mau, I am contending in my dynasty league and just traded A.J Cole and Jose Peraza for Josh Donaldson. I have Brett Lawrie coming back soon. Should I try to deal Lawrie for a bat that is helping me now,even though I am selling low? Maybin and Quentin have been utterly awful.(GilaMonster from Boston)

In a vacuum I think the stock is too low. I would dangle him out there and see if anyone bites with a decent bat but I think it's unlikely. (Mauricio Rubio)

For a Fantasy Team rebuilding this year and looking towards 2015 2016 (R,HR,RBI,SB, AVG, OPS, 20 teams) to contend would you trade Anthony Rendon for Brett Lawrie and Clint Frasier? The logic from both sides is Rendon is a more complete INF and hitter than Lawrie, with a better OPS, Avg, SB, Runs but Lawrie is the same age and only a tier below Rendon. Both have 2b,3b eligibility this year and next but long term Rendon will be 3b and Lawrie might keep 2b longer? Is it worth the hitting down grade and a chance on frasier hitting his ceiling? Or stick with Rendon who will be a top 5 INF regardless of position for the next 5 years?(Love INF from NJ)

I would try to trade other pieces for Frazier and Lawrie. I really like Rendon long term. (Mauricio Rubio)

Is Brett Lawrie and the newfound power stroke for real and what happened to the steals? He is hitting over .300 since April 12th, could be a fantasy monster if it all comes together. Is now the time?(Kyle from Florida)

I think the first question answers the second in part. The power isn't going to be sustained at that level, but he was definitely a good candidate for a rise after last year. As for the steals, he's just not on first base that often. His OBP dropped 27 points since last year, and a lot more of that now is being taken up by doubles and home runs, so his number of times on first could be way down. I don't know him to be considerably slower.

The Blue Jays have also been fairly conservative as a team, so there could be something institutional in the 0 attempts. (Zachary Levine)

What are you views on Heyward? 12 team roto dynasty standard 5x5, would you move him and Bailey for Donaldson? What level of player would you want included on the Donaldson side? Already have Lawrie and ARam on the roster. Would try to move Lawrie for some SV's help. Would fill in Heyward's spot with Moss against RHPs and when Moss faces LHPs Revere. (Geronimo from Big City Crush)

I'm not as high on Jason Heyward as others, but I think that he's a solid outfielder with mid $20s earning potential. With that in mind, I'd pass on Heyward and Homer Bailey for Josh Donaldson. Donaldson might be a little bit better than he was last year but it seems that you're selling low on Bailey. In a two-for-one, I'd want at least a third-tier pitcher back to make that deal.

Sure, you can move Brett Lawrie for a closer. I'd try for right below the elite (Greg Holland/Craig Kimbrel) level. (Mike Gianella)

Who are a few hitters/pichers you like to break-out this year?(Shawn from Cubicle)

I don't know if he's a breakout candidate, but I'm a big Tyson Ross fan. I think the adjustments they made are real and while the injury risk might always be there, he was (tied) for the hardest pitcher to hit in the second half.

I think Brett Lawrie is a nice post-hype candidate put up some sneaky 15/20 goodness.

Brandon Belt isn't exactly a breakout candidate, but he is going to add even more power this year. (Mike Gianella)

Mike, I've got Brett Lawrie for $9 in a $260 Roto Auction Keeper. What's this guy's deal?? Am I silly for keeping him at this price, or does he have a chance to help in 4 to 5 categories and make him worth the risk? Also, any thoughts on Avasail Garcia? I've seen some people project 30hr. Seems like a reach to me...(Russ from San Diego)

He's great at $9. Keep in mind that the expectations were ridiculous for Lawrie in 2012 because of a short season success in 2011 with a BA spike. He is still a very productive player who I believe gets better but at that price you can't go wrong.

Yes, that's a reach on Avisail Garcia. 20 HR seems more realistic, and I wouldn't be surprised to see as little at 15. I don't see 30 at all (now watch him go and do that). (Mike Gianella)

Dalton's Mercedes speeds recklessly toward Wesley's estate, drawing gunfire from Wesley's henchmen, but they discover the car empty, and the knife that was used to kill Wade stuck in the accelerator. One by one, Dalton dispatches each of Wesley's thugs, and eventually comes face-to-face with Wesley. Dalton gains the upper hand in their fight and prepares to finish Wesley in the same brutal manner as Jimmy, but decides against it. When Dalton releases him, Wesley seizes the opportunity to reach for a gun, but is promptly shot to death by Red, Emmett, Stroudenmire, and Tilghman. They stash the weapons away prior to the arrival of law enforcement and proceed to corroborate each other's innocence, with the implication that what happened in Wesley's house will remain a secret. (Jason Parks)

Will Johnathan Schoop be the Orioles everyday 2B next year? Do you see him as an eventual top-10 fantasy guy at the position?(Jim from Baltimore)

Hi Jim

I can't predict whether or not Schoop will be the Orioles 2B next year, but I do think that he'll get an opportunity in camp. Brian Roberts is a free agent, and Alexi Casilla and Ryan Flaherty shouldn't be viewed as road blocks. I suspect the Orioles will bring in a cheap veteran as a back-up plan in Spring Training and let them compete.

Will Jonathan Schoop be a Top 10 guy? That all depends on how his power develops. He probably will eventually be Top 10, but given his age and the minor league numbers he has put up to date, I don't see this happening until 2017-2018. These players play different positions, but I think you have to look at players like Brett Lawrie and Eric Hosmer as examples. Everyone got too enthusiastic about Lawrie/Hosmer and got burned the last couple of years. That doesn't mean these players aren't good and won't get better, but it's a long learning curve, particularly if you're not a made-to-order superstar like Mike Trout or Schoop's teammate, Manny Machado. (Mike Gianella)

I am currently rostering both Brett Lawrie and Nolan Arenado in a 12-team H2H redraft league (OBP replaces AVG otherwise standard 5 categories). I don't want to carry more than one 3B and neither has trade value...who should I drop? I just can't imagine a world where I regret dropping Lawrie at this point...am I wrong?(Ragnhild from Norway)

Lawrie looks horrendous to me. He has poor pitch selection and tries to destroy every baseball thrown his way. I see him get himself out more often than not by going after the pitcher's pitch rather than waiting for one he can do something with. Arenado has less major league experience but already does this better. (Jason Collette)

Paul- I'm in a 12 team league with just 6 bench spots. Right now I have Eric Hosmer (.258 zero home runs) and Brett Lawrie (batting a wopping .185) taking up 2 spots based on their potential. What point do you cut bait? or would you have already done that? (DanDaMan from SeaCliff)

I have those jerkstores in an AL only so it's less painful. It really depends who you are replacing them with. I imagine there's more depth at 1B of if he's not your starter, then cut Hos and pick up an upside player off the wire. (Paul Sporer)

Thanks for the chat, Ian. My question for you is what can I expect from Brett Lawrie next year? He had quite the drop off in production in the second half. In your eyes, is he still a potential all-star at 3B??(Nathan from Toronto)

Potential all-star, sure. Gotta wonder how much injuries and wear-and-tear were affecting him down the stretch.

I also have vague and lingering questions about him makeup. If he can't get his testosterone and teen angst in check, that might limit his ceiling. (Ian Miller)

Do you think Brett Lawrie bounces back next year?(Cole from St. Louis)

Cole, I like his game, and feel that he should be a better guy in all phases next year. I didn't think he was as good a defender in 2012 as he was a year ago, but I do not see him play everyday. it is about expectations, too. If you think he is going to be a 30-homer guy at the hot corner, I think you'll be disappointed more often than not. He needs to be more patient at the plate and calm his game down just a little bit. (Dan Evans)

Should I be disappointed in Brett Lawrie's season? Do you downgrade his upside based on this year?(Paul D from Toronto)

I think if you're disappointed in what Lawrie has done this season, your expectations for him were too high to begin with. He's had a good year and he's young enough that you should expect good things for him in the future. (Colin Wyers)

Thanks for chatting, Ben!
No talking fantasy here, but real life baseball: if you had to choose between Brett Lawrie and Mike Moustakas from now until the end of their respective careers, either as a hitter or complete package, which do you take?(smallflowers from live from the delino deshields sr. fanclub)

I like Moustakas a little more as a player. Slightly higher draft pick, slightly better prospect, more than slightly better makeup (supposedly) and production this season. Then again, Lawrie is almost a year and a half younger. That difference in age might make up the difference in career production right there. Tough call, but I think I still give the edge to Moose. (Ben Lindbergh)

Who do you see making the most impact this year, in 3 years, in 5 years: Brett Lawrie or Jesus Montero?(David from Fredericton NB Canada)

I'm tempted to go with Lawrie because he can play defense. If Montero figures out how to catch then he's huge, just huuuuuuuuuuuge, but from what I know that probably isn't going to happen. (Matthew Kory)

Career All Star Appearances for Brett Lawrie, 2.5, Over or Under?(Andrew Stoeten from drunkjaysfans.com)

It will have to be as a reserve as long as Longoria is in the league and/or Yankee/Sox fans are stuffing the ballots. I love Lawrie, but he has so much helium in his ADP/Auction $$ right now I'm staying away. Put me at the over (Jason Collette)

Brett Lawrie, Career MLB All-Star Appearances, 2.5, Over or Under?(Andrew Stoeten from drunkjaysfans.com)

The smart money on these bets is almost always the under, but Lawrie is a rare exception for me. I think what he showed last year is very real, and assuming that he stays at third base, he has a chance to be one of the top three at the position in the American League for a long, long time. (Daniel Rathman)

Brett Lawrie the real deal or what? You think he will get noticed south of the 49th? What do you envision his hitting stats be come year end? (JaysBlueForever from Toronto)

We're talking about him, right? So I'd say he's already been noticed. He's not going to live up to the .293/.373/.580 he hit last year, but I'll take the over on the initial PECOTA I've seen (.263/.312/.444). (Jay Jaffe)

PECOTA seems a bit low on Brett Lawrie for 2012 based on what I see in the PFM. Your thoughts?(Steve from Toronto)

In terms of his major league performance, Lawrie (like everyone) is subject to Voros' Law: any player good enough to make it to MLB can do anything in a third of a season or so. So you have to account for that.

Now, Lawrie had very good minor league numbers as well. But you have to look at how those stats translate to the majors. One thing we're doing now (and I plan on writing more about this in the future) is regressing translated minor league stats to a lower level of performance than the major league average, but instead the average performance of players coming up from the minors. That's going to temper his forecast a bit more than if we were regressing to the MLB average. (Colin Wyers)

Kimbrel and Lawrie, if for no other reason than because he'll carry higher trade value than Droobs. I also think he'll be pretty good too, but maybe not as good as some others seem to think. (Derek Carty)

In my keeper league, I've been offered Matt Kemp for Brett Lawrie. I would be crazy not to accept this trade offer right?(Marissa from LA)

Indeed you would. I'm assuming you can keep players forever, but even still, that's a trade you take unless you're not looking to compete for another year or two. And even if you aren't, it still might be worth it to take the trade and re-deal Kemp mid-season for a greater return than Lawrie. (Derek Carty)

Would you rather have Marcum as your #3 pitcher or Brett Lawrie as your 3B? Now and in five years (yeah, I know I should ask Kevin Goldstein this...)?(ttt from Work)

If I'm Doug Melvin or Mark Attanassio, I'd rather have Marcum this year. Lawrie is fantastic and, from his hot start at least, may be even better than I realized. But he wasn't going to have the same kind of impact on the 2011 Brewers as Marcum did. Mark A and Melvin made a conscious effort to make the most of Prince's walk year, and Marcum was a big piece of that. Plus, I have little doubt that Marcum's presence helped Greinke decide to waive his no-trade clause.

As a Brewers fan, I think it was the right move too. Sometimes you have to take advantage of your opportunities, and Melvin and Attanassio did a good job of that.

Almost time to go, so I probably only have time for one or two more questions... (Larry Granillo)

Does Brett Lawrie have a chance to hit 20 HR's with 75 RBI's next season?(Bubbles from Zoo)

I wouldn't put anything by Full Tilt, but I think the RBI benchmark is more realistic. We don't know how the league will adjust to him yet as he hasn't made a pass around the league just yet and he hit 18 homers this season while playing in the launching pad that is Vegas in the PCL. (Jason Collette)

Hi Derek, which current minor league hitter and pitcher do you speculate will have the biggest fantasy impact this season? Thanks...(lvhawk from LV, KS)

Wow, just one of each? Ok, let's go with Brett Lawrie and Kyle Gibson, but there are a number of other viable choices. A lot of this will come down to when each is recalled, and with Lawrie coming up soonest, I'll take him over guys like Jennings and Moustakas and Ackley right now. (Derek Carty)

Have Brett Lawrie at 2B/3B eligible this season. Needs 5 games to gain eligibility at a position for both this year and next. A) has he played 5 games at 2B this year? and B) does he somehow get enough games at either 2B or 3B going forward (next season and beyond) to keep either of those eligibilities?(Jacob Smith from Huntsville, AL)

3B for sure. He hasn't played 2B yet this year and probably won't unless, and only **maybe** if, Aaron Hill gets injured again. Even that is extremely doubtful as it's unlikely they'd want to move a rookie around the diamond instead of letting him stay at the position they're trying to get him comfortable at. Don't count on him for 2B next year. (Derek Carty)

Brett Lawrie's no doubt coming up soon. Any idea what a reasonable expectation for the rest of the season? What would his 2011 upside numbers be?(tommybones from brooklyn)

My big question with Lawrie is how much of this offensive gain is because of the PCL. If it's a legit improvement then I think you look for him to become an all-star at one point or another in his career. As for this season, it's really just a coin flip. He could jump right in and perform well or he could have some struggles. He is only 21, after all. (R.J. Anderson)

Ken, who would you say has the better chance to succeed in Roto ball Michael Pineda or Matt Moore? What about Brett Lawrie versus Manny Machado?
Thanks -(Touch em all Joe from Toronto)

Pineda vs. Moore is a tough one, and you can't go wrong either way (though in Strat I'd take Pineda, avoiding Moore's incipient leftiness). Gun to my head I pick Pineda, since pitching in Seattle should really help his raw numbers. Machado is more valuable than Lawrie if he can stick at shortstop. If he moves to third base -- well, I STILL think he's likely more valuable than Lawrie in the long run. (Ken Funck)

I was wanting to know about Brett Lawrie. I read that he turned down the opportunity to play in the AFL. Is this common for players to do, cuz I just thought clubs sent their players and didn't realize a player could elect not to go? Having already read that he has bad body language and apparently not interested in defence, if this is something of a trend. Heard anything on this?(Greg27 from Milwaukee)

I think there have been knocks on Lawrie's overall attitude, and this might be more evidence of that phenomenon. His defense certainly could use the work. Last I heard from the beat guys (who are definitely the most up to date on this kind of thing), Haudricourt had no information on why Lawrie opted not to play. (Tommy Bennett)

1) Will Scott Boras get anything close to a Teixeira contract for Prince, assuming the Yankees won't be one of the bidders? 2) Do the Brewers have enough decent prospects to build around Braun-Gallardo to contend next year? 3) When will Planters Heat Peanuts become the ballpark staple that Cracker Jack is?(Heat Peanuts from 1.75 oz tube)

1) No, since Prince isn't the same defender and more GMs will be worried that Prince's rounder physique won't age as well. As a whole, MLB keeps getting smarter about how it spends its money.

2) Not next year, no -- the few pitching prospects they have are too far away, as is their best hitting prospect (Brett Lawrie). I can certainly understand Melvin deciding to keep Fielder and take one more shot with the Fielder/Braun/Hart/Weeks core before they have to be split up. (Ken Funck)