When to Draft Torrey Smith for Value

Torrey Smith is now the primary receiver for Joe Flacco and the Ravens. Gone is Anquan Boldin and the 108 targets he garnered, to be distributed among the rest of the receivers in Baltimore. Smith had 104 targets of his own, but he only hauled in 49 of them for a lackluster catch rate of 47 percent. Of course, the fact he had the highest aDOT of any receiver with more than 20 targets last year probably had something to do with it. Deep passes are naturally more difficult to complete.

Smith’s role should expand this year along with his utilization. As such, his aDOT should drop while his target count and catch rate rise. If he approaches or passes 140 targets and his catch rate improves to a still-modest 60 percent, he’ll catch almost 40 more balls than he did last year, when he scored eight touchdowns.