Sunday, November 9, 2014

Michigan 10, Northwestern 9

Ugly. That was a terrible performance by everyone except Michigan's front seven and Northwestern's secondary. Each team turned over the ball 3 times, nobody could move the ball consistently, quarterbacks were falling down without being touched, and there were no big plays except when Northwestern safety Ibraheim Campbell returned an interception 79 yards. The Wildcats are banged up, and their offensive line isn't very good. Michigan's top skill players - Devin Gardner, Devin Funchess, Dennis Norfleet, and Derrick Green - are all limping or out entirely.

Michigan's defensive tackles have matched the secondary in interceptions. Matt Godin's interception gives the tackles two (Willie Henry had a pick against Utah), while cornerback Jourdan Lewis has 2 - and is the only player in the secondary to record an interception. The Wolverines now have 5 picks on the season after linebacker Jake Ryan got one in this game, too, but it has been a largely unproductive season for Michigan's defensive backs.

Quarterback play is wretched. Devin Gardner made some terrible decisions in the passing game, much like he did last year at Northwestern. He finished the game 11/24 for 109 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Michigan was winning the field position battle in the first half, playing in Northwestern territory almost the entire time. That added up to 0 points. On the play that turned into Campbell's interception, Bo Dever was wide open deep on the right sideline, but Gardner tried to hit Freddy Canteen in the middle of the field. Gardner looks indecisive, doesn't throw on time, and won't tuck the ball and run with any authority. When he does make a quick decision, it's usually the wrong one.

Offensive line improvement. Michigan fans may not like to hear it, but this offensive line is getting better. The Wolverines did a good job of keeping pressure off of Gardner, and they were opening up decent-sized holes in the running game. Northwestern did not get a ton of penetration, and while they don't have any huge playmakers on the defensive line, this still represents a step forward for Michigan. Fans who want head coach Brady Hoke and offensive line coach Darrell Funk gone after this season are not gathering convincing evidence on the field from the offensive line. Of course, Michigan's skill players aren't doing much with the holes provided, either.

Running back situation. Last week I called for Drake Johnson to get more playing time, and he did (10 carries for 30 yards). However, he and De'Veon Smith both looked bad early. I thought Smith, in particular, looked indecisive and slow to the hole in the first half. He spent way too much time dancing in the backfield, trying to wait for something better. One of the coaches on the sideline - presumably Fred Jackson - must have talked to Smith, because when he finally decided to hit the line with authority, the running game took off. Smith finished with 18 carries for 121 yards and 1 touchdown. Johnson, meanwhile, is the faster of the two backs, but he struggles to break tackles. I believe we saw the last of him when he fumbled the ball, which was recovered by Joey-on-the-Spot Kerridge.

The wide receivers are slow. This is not new news, but it is painfully obvious. Funchess has more speed than he's showing, but I just don't see him running hard. I think his ankle is still bothering him. Maybe that's what's sapping his concentration, since he seems to drop half the passes thrown his way. Jehu Chesson has decent speed, but he has been banged up and has perhaps the worst hands out of the entire receiving corps. Norfleet is out. Gardner - who is playing poorly anyway - has limited options, none of whom can get separation unless the defense blows a coverage. Unfortunately, there's not much help in sight. I have hopes for Maurice Ways, who I think is going to surprise some people when he hits the field. Drake Harris, who is redshirting along with Ways, used to be fast before he had a two-years-long hamstring injury. I am not counting on him to return to form. Da'Mario Jones can't seem to find his way onto the field.

The defensive line made Northwestern look silly. When backup defensive end Mario Ojemudia bull rushes through your offensive line for 2 sacks, you know things are bad. Michigan totaled 6 sacks, including 1.5 from Frank Clark, 1 from Brennen Beyer, and 1 from Willie Henry. Michigan's defensive line made Northwestern's linemen, quarterback, and play calling look silly at times. Color guy Ed Cunningham kept questioning Northwestern's decision to call dropback passes, and I actually agreed with an analyst for once. The Wildcats finally seemed to have some success when they called shorter pass routes and kept backs in the backfield to protect the quarterback. It just took them a long time to realize it. Northwestern just couldn't handle trying to block Michigan's defensive line one-on-one while waiting for routes to develop. Clark, in particular, had a great game, especially in the first half.

Jake Ryan is a monster. He had 11 tackles, .5 tackles for loss, 1 interception, and 1 pass breakup. He and Clark could both feasibly earn Defensive Player of the Week honors in the Big Ten, which Ryan also won last week against Indiana. I thought all the linebackers played well, including Joe Bolden (7 tackles) and James Ross III (5 tackles).

Everyone except Jourdan Lewis is a step slow. Michigan's secondary just isn't making plays this year. Everyone seems a step slow, even against a Northwestern offense that is slow and lacking playmakers. The one exception appears to be Lewis, but even he a) should have been called for pass interference at least once and b) should have intercepted a pass thrown to Kyle Prater. The commentators praised Lewis for batting down the ball, but he should have planted his back foot and gone up to get the pass at its highest point. Meanwhile, whenever backup cornerback Delonte Hollowell is in the game, I think opposing offensive coordinators target him; he is, of course, the guy who allowed Northwestern's lone touchdown. That has been his M.O. this year. I believe Notre Dame, Utah, and Northwestern have all scored touchdowns against Hollowell on flat routes near the offense's left sideline.

Pat Fitzgerald's decision at the end of the game. With Michigan hanging onto a 10-9 leading with a pending extra point attempt, Fitzgerald decided to go for the two-point conversion. I agree with the decision, but not the execution. Northwestern had momentum at that point, but for the entire game, Michigan dominated defensively. It seemed to take everything Northwestern had to muster that late-game rally. After losing for two straight years in overtime, it's understandable that Fitzgerald wanted to go for the win. The maxim is that you should go for the tie at home, and go for the win on the road, but Michigan had been the more consistent team in this one. Northwestern had been hitting short passes late in the game, and I believe they should have continued with what was working. They should have gone with max protection and tried to hit someone short. Instead, they rolled quarterback Trevor Siemian to the right, and when Frank Clark ended up in his face, Siemian's foot slipped and he fell to the ground. Game over.

What does this all mean? It means Michigan's offense is still terrible, and Michigan's defense is pretty good. The Wolverines managed just 256 yards, went 1-for-12 on third downs, 0-for-1 on fourth, and had just 13 first downs the whole game. The defense allowed -9 total rushing yards, and while Northwestern threw for 273, it was largely on dink-and-dunk passes late in the game.

32 comments:

NW's 2 pt play - watching the reply, you can see Vitale fake block Clark by laying down and then pop right back up. As Simian heads to his right, vitale heads left for a throw back. Long developing play, can't believe that is what they called.

Regarding Gardner, I'm sure having two HCs and three OCs have hampered his development to an extent and getting beat to hell thanks to subpar o-line play in previous seasons seems to have made him pretty jittery. But do either of those things explain his inability to do things like see the field properly? Would coaching carousel hinder his ability to develop basic QB skills, like seeing WRs and defenders?

"Seeing the field properly" is a combination of many things, including primary reads, what the defense is doing, game situation, etc. So yes, I do think that a coaching carousel could have something to do with it.

I ask myself what this team will look like next year. We'll have a third year Shane Morris at QB, along with an improving offensive line that will be a year better. The running back stable will be very deep and talented, and it's reasonable to anticipate we'll be very good defensively.

I admire and like Devin, and he has been a warrior through a lot of thick and thin for us. But he was pretty bad yesterday, and with decent quarterback and receiver play we would have looked much better and won that game handily.

We had some absolutely abysmal play calling on third down yesterday. Especially on the third and 2 before we kicked our field goal. A first down there would basically have sealed the game, and we run the lamest, most unimaginative play possible. Why?

TTB wrote "Michigan fans may not like to hear it, but this offensive line is getting better." and "Fans who want head coach Brady Hoke and offensive line coach Darrell Funk gone after this season are not gathering convincing evidence on the field from the offensive line."

I'd concede that the O-line is improving. (As an aside, I'd also buy the arguments having to do with youth and the related recruiting of that position in '11 and -- especially -- '10.) How much, though, and how quickly? I like forward momentum as much as anyone, but it doesn't seem to me that things should have been so bad for so long.

I think we've taken a pretty big step forward in pass protection, which is surprising given the loss of both of our tackles (and the starting of a freshman (!) at LT). But Gardner has had a brutally bad season. I don't know if it's his injuries or the chance in OC but he's just a complete mess at the moment. The confident Gardner of late 2012/early 2013 would be looking much better behind this line.

Run blocking has been more of a mixed bag but on the whole they're cutting down on DL penetration and starting to open up more holes, especially in the interior. Short yardage is still a bit iffy though.

Yes, Devin has been absolutely terrible. He just stares down his primary receiver -- usually Funchess -- and sees nothing else. Everything else Magnus said about him is true. The thing is that QB play is incredibly significant to offensive performance. If Shane can't play better than this, and the evidence suggests that he can't, then what is going on with our QB coaching. This isn't scheme stuff but basic QB skills. If you put a half-decent quarterback with this team and they are pretty good now, even with the other problems. Much as I am completely done with Hoke and don't even want to think about seeing him clapping on the sidelines next year, I have to admit that with receiver and O-line improvement, and with Ty Isaac and Derek Green actually hitting holes with aggression, we would be a pretty good team. So sad that the great Jake Ryan had to play during these worst years of UM football in my lifetime -- and I am not young.

I'm not arguing for the retention of Hoke and Funk. I said after the MSU game that they're finished. But if "the powers that be" see improvement, they could possibly see that as reason enough to keep Hoke around.

It is not possible to see improvement. The defense has not gotten better since 2011 and the offense is progressively worse every year. The only way to do "see improvement" is if your reference point is rock bottom.

If this sort of "see improvement" thing didn't apply for Rodriguez, it would be a double standard to apply it for Hoke.

Not sure Michigan's defense is all that good. Against teams like NW maybe. I am afraid OSU is going to put up some big numbers on Michigan. They look very good against MSU's defense, and MSU's defense is better than Michigan's.

Are we sure that's true? MSU got blitzed by OSU and Oregon. Good offenses, yes, but MSU hasn't shut down anybody that doesn't get shut down by other people. Purdue moved the ball and put up points on them. This isn't the same D we saw last year, or maybe other teams have just figured them out.

Michigan's case is even thinner than that, but I bet we hold OSU to fewer points than MSU did.

At this point in the season, every team has played its share of good teams and bad teams. Michigan is #7 in total defense and #19 in scoring defense. I think any team with those rankings can be labeled "pretty good."

Why would a Michigan fan not want the O-line to improve? We've been waiting 4 years for it. If you mean to imply that it would undermine the case for firing Hoke, it doesn't. Going from horrendous to just pretty bad, in year 4, is a disgrace. The offense has gotten worse every single year. This team needed a failed 2 point conversion and botched punt to beat a bad Northwestern team. This changes nothing about the big picture. This team is AWFUL and Hoke is responsible for that.

Speaking of the big picture. The RB rundown, again, illustrates a terminal case of skewing the narrative. Smith outplayed Johnson by a mile. It was abundantly clear who the better RB was on the day. Which is no surprise to anyone who has even a glimmer of faith in our coaching staff's ability to evaluate their players. Johnson looked bad, especially on the fumble, but also in pass protection. He's 4th string for a reason and 4th quarters against awful teams who have given up doesn't/shouldn't move the needle. Next year Johnson will likely be 5th or 6th string if everyone returns and Weber sticks to the recruiting class. If the Dave Brandon fiasco has taught us anything it's that it's better to admit you are wrong than try to talk around it.

Everything else is on point. Gardner and Funchess are playing like garbage. That said, without them, it's going to be even uglier next year. The reason Ways didn't get any other offers of note is that he too is slow. Jones is slow too. Harris, Canteen, and Norfleet are the guys we hope can be a threat. It doesn't look good. Best case scenario is Funchess sticks around and whoever our next coach is can get him to play up to his talent.

On to the bright side -- great day by Darboh. Butt and the OL look solid (though they damn well should against Northwestern!). The run D was excellent. I think with Morgan back next year our LBs will be even better than this year and Glasgow/Mone/Henry is strong group of DTs to build around. We might want to think about a 3-4 D next year with those guys plus Wormley, Godin, Pipkins, Hurst, etc.

On the negative side -- sheesh, this team is going through nail-biters against awful teams like Penn State, Rutgers, and Northwestern. Only complete train-wrecks like Miami, Indiana, and App State are convincing victories. Legitimate teams like Notre Dame, MSU, Minnesota and Utah are curb-stompings. We know where Ohio State lines up, and Maryland seems better than anyone we've beaten yet...

It took some epic stupid play by Northwestern for us to beat them. This team is gawdawful and bordering on unwatchable. I'd swap this for 2010 anyday, if for no other reason than entertainment-value.

I don't think the RB commentary skews the narrative at all. What did I say that was inaccurate? They were both bad early. Then Smith took off once he started hitting the hole with authority. Do you disagree with any of that?

In a vacuum, no. In the context of last week's analysis, where 4th quarter performances mean you came "to the rescue" and warrant a benching of the other guy - things seem skewed. Smith had a better game than Johnson had this week, but the narrative was mostly negative about him.

The huge problem is QB play. We really don't know what the O would look like with a competent QB. Guys are open and are not being thrown to, or are thrown to late, or are underthrown. A good QB makes a huge difference, and the QB play we are getting makes us hopeless.

...and the bad QB play is just one of the main reasons we have to get rid of Hoke. Consider:- Denard got worse each of his 2 years under Hoke- Devin has gotten worse each of his 3 years at QB- Shane Morris did not look a "Power 5" QB in either of his two starts (and he's gotten plenty of practice time for a backup, considering Devin's injuries).- Bellomy, based on his offers, should at this point be a below avg Big Ten QB. Instead, based on his play on the field (sparse as it is) he is well below avg (to be kind)

Contrast that with pretty much any other good coach. I'll pick one obvious one -- Urban Meyer. His all-world QB goes down and after some early hiccups, they are rolling. There are plenty of other examples.

You have to admit, though, that Hoke brought in a noted QB mentor in Nuss. So at some point this has to be on the QB's, Devin particularly. But I will certainly agree that the huge problem is the YMCA soccer culture created by Hoke. He's proud of them all for their effort.

The jury is still out on Nuss, but he wasn't the sure thing he was made out to be. Bottomline is it's on Hoke to make it work.

As Rob Pollard pointed out, it's hard to put the blame on Gardner when literally every other QB has looked bad as well. Nobody is improving. We've seen Gardner at his best and it's pretty thrilling. He's way off that now. Certainly he deserves a lot of blame, but it'd be easier to put it mostly on him if someone else was stepping up instead.

Beyond just saying "co-sign" to Lanknows, I want to focus on you *can't* blame Gardner in particular. *All* U of M QBs have declined or not improved. If it was just Devin, that would be one thing. But it's not.

I'll bring up one other example to drive it home: Arizona. Anu Solomon was rated pretty high, but not quite as high as Devin, coming out of HS. Solomon currently is completing 60% of his passed on has 25 TDs and 5 INTs. Oh -- and he's a RS Freshman (i.e., like Morris) playing in a tougher conference. Solomon lights up bad/medicore opponents and he's OK against quality opponents. That's why Arizona is 7-2 while we're 5-5.