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Lone Star rising

From left: John Cornyn is sticking close to Ted Cruz; Joaquin and Julian Castro are rising Democratic stars. | AP Photos

But, as with the national political conversation, both Republicans and Democrats in Texas believe that blanket demography-is-destiny prognostications are simplistic and that the GOP won’t automatically be consigned to irrelevance once the population hits a certain threshold. Texas Republicans hope the emergence of George P. Bush could be one reason why.

Mirroring the country at large, much depends on how Republicans act with regard to Hispanics and whether Democrats can field the sort of quality candidates who can bind together a viable center-and-left coalition.

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“We are getting closer to it being a reality,” said Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) of his party regaining majority status statewide, “but it’s not going to happen by demographics alone.”

Castro, noting that the party needs to first bolster its infrastructure, predicts it will take eight to 10 years for Democrats to be in a position in which they can take over state politics.

“When you’re in a hole in a place as big as this, it’s going to take a little while to climb out,” he said.

Demographics — and the issue of growing Hispanic clout — is interwoven throughout this state’s political DNA. Republicans here have been smarter about how they approach Hispanics, reaching out to the state’s Latino voters, appointing some to high-profile posts and generally avoiding the hostility that came with, for example, California Gov. Pete Wilson and Prop 187.

Democratic state Rep. Mark Strama, a Texas political operative in the GOP wave of 1994, vividly recalled a symbolically important moment in the days immediately following the George W. Bush defeat of incumbent Gov. Ann Richards: Bush was asked if he might propose a Prop 187-style law in Texas denying health and education benefits to illegal immigrants and their children.

“Any political consultant that day in those times would have said the correct answer was yes,” said Strama. “But he didn’t blink.”

Perry has hewed to a similar approach, memorably deeming his GOP critics as “heartless” in the 2012 Republican presidential primary for their criticism of his support for giving in-state tuition to the children of illegals.

But now the GOP, in Texas and beyond, faces a test with Hispanics with how it procedes on immigration reform.

While Johnson and Carter have dived into discussions on the issue, Cornyn and especially Cruz have been far more hesitant. Some Texans worry that if Cruz votes against the eventual bill, Cornyn will have to as well — and that their opposition, even with Senate passage, will make it harder on the state’s House Republicans to back comprehensive reform.

“We have to fix this and we have to do it fairly with compassion to those people that are involved,” said Carter.

But asked if any immigration measure would pass if it’s perceived as amnesty, Carter didn’t hesitate: “No, it cannot.”

The key, he added, is “how you define amnesty.”

“There’s ways to do it, we’re working on it,” said Carter.

But other Texas Republican congressman are stepping gingerly around the issue, recognizing the danger of being branded with a scarlet “A” in their conservative districts ahead of 2014 primaries.

“It depends on what we have before us,” said Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Texas), a senior member of the delegation and former congressional aide. Thornberry said his immigration priorities were on enforcement and mending the legal immigration system. He also echoed other House Republicans in saying, contra the Senate approach, he’d prefer breaking up the issue “in bite-size chunks” instead of passing a comprehensive bill.