Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Expect Week 3 to be a little more predictable

Forget about a Cheat Sheet. You would have needed Marty McFly’s Grays Sports Almanac to fully prepare for Week 2 of the 2015 NFL season. Even if you had that window into the future, you likely would have questioned its veracity. The Buccaneers are going to beat the Saints in New Orleans as 10-point underdogs? DeAngelo Williams, Matt Jones and Dion Lewis will be the three highest fantasy scorers at the running back position? Derek Carr will throw for 351 yards and three touchdowns, all while leading a last-second game-winning touchdown drive against the Ravens.

So, yeah, Week 2 was a little off the rails. Perhaps Week 3 will be a bit more predictable. No matter what it is, though, we’ll get you ready for all that Sunday has to offer in the Week 3 Cheat Sheet.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Falcons

18th

30th

14th

13th

Cowboys

2nd

9th

4th

4th

Vegas lines

Falcons -1.5
Over/under 45
Falcons o/u 23.5
Cowboys o/u 21.5

This game total could be 10 points higher if Tony Romo were healthy. It would be a lot more interesting if that were the case. As it stands, expect the Cowboys to feature the run heavily to try to keep Matt Ryan off the field. That could result in Joseph Randle’s biggest game to date.

Player who could surprise: Devonta Freeman

With Tevin Coleman nursing broken ribs, Freeman should rack up at least 20 touches on Sunday. Even with Coleman active, Freeman has 22 carries and 12 targets in Atlanta’s first two games. Now that there’s no competition in the backfield, Freeman will serve as a three-down back. Volume alone should lead him to an RB2 performance.

Player who could disappoint: Jason Witten

Witten is dealing with two sprained ankles, so he may not even be able to suit up this week. He was already at the back end of the TE1 class with Romo under center. There’s an argument to be made that Weeden will lean on his big tight end, but that ignores the fact that he also just drags down the ceiling of the offense. Remember, too, that Gavin Escobar has a significant role in the offense, especially in the red zone.

The Cowboys primarily use zone coverage, and have done so to effectively contain Odell Beckham and, until garbage time, Jordan Matthews. Jones is one of the league’s best at finding the soft spots in a zone, and that could open up the secondary for the deep dagger.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Colts

13th

16th

25th

6th

Titans

7th

12th

9th

24th

Vegas lines

Colts -3.5
Over/under 46
Colts o/u 25
Titans o/u 21.5

Vegas hasn’t lost any faith in the Colts’ offense, making the 3.5-point favorites in a divisional game on the road, and setting their o/u at 25 points. The Andrew Luck Correction Tour begins on Sunday, especially now that he has a healthy T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief fully involved.

Player who could surprise: Kendall Wright

Vontae Davis could miss Sunday’s game due to a concussion. Even if he doesn’t, he typically matches up with an outside receiver, while Wright does most of his damage out of the slot. Jalil Brown, the Colts primary slot corner, has allowed a 116.7 quarterback rating on six slot targets.

Player who could disappoint: T.Y. Hilton

First, if I own Hilton I’m starting him, and I’m doing so with confidence. Having said that, he has never been a dominant touchdown scorer in his career, and Moncrief commands just as much attention from Luck. He’s still a rock-solid fantasy starter, but he may just be a high-end WR

Matchup to watch

Titans offensive line vs. Colts run defense

Through two games, the Titans rate as Pro Football Focus’ second-best run-blocking unit. The Colts, meanwhile, are in the middle of the pack in run defense. The Titans will want to shorten this game and do what they can to keep Luck on the sidelines. Expect to see a lot of Bishop Sankey

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Raiders

23rd

29th

12th

32nd

Browns

14th

28th

13th

30th

Vegas lines

Browns -3.5
Over/under 42.5
Raiders o/u 19.5
Browns o/u 23

Thanks for depriving us of Johnny Manziel, Browns coaching staff. This is a really compelling game without him. Let this line, as well as the Oakland total, be a warning to those of you who are all in on Derek Carr and this offense after last week.

Player who could surprise: Isaiah Crowell

Crowell looked good against Tennessee last week, running 15 times for 72 yards and a score. The Raiders have been terrible against running backs, surrendering 233 yards and three scores on 50 carries. This is a great matchup that will only get better if the Browns can get out to a lead.

Player who could disappoint: Derek Carr

Carr had the sort of game that could serve as a career signpost last week, throwing for 351 yards and three scores, including the game-winner right after tossing what could have been a backbreaking interception. Still, this is a tough matchup on the road, and the Browns have a pair of good corners in Joe Haden and Tramon Williams.

Matchup to watch

Raiders offensive line vs. Browns pass rush

The Raiders have been the league’s fourth-best pass-blocking group, and did a great job against the Ravens a week ago. The Browns, on the other hand, have seven sacks, led by Armonty Bryant’s 2.5. This matchup could determine the game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Bengals

11th

25th

8th

3rd

Ravens

12th

10th

29th

1st

Vegas lines

Ravens -2.5
Over/under 44.5
Bengals o/u 21
Ravens o/u 23.5

Don’t write off the Ravens just yet. They’ve lost two close games on the road, and the offense looked at least competent against a bad Oakland defense a week ago. The spread seems designed to attract people to the Ravens, however, which makes me even more bullish on the Bengals offense.

Player who could surprise: Marvin Jones

The Ravens have allowed 38 receptions for 433 yards and three scores this season. All three of those came against the Raiders last week, with both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree getting loose for big games. We know A.J. Green is a strong WR1, but Jones scored on a deep ball from Andy Dalton last week. He’s a WR3 with top-25 upside.

Player who could disappoint: Justin Forsett

The Bengals haven’t given up a thing to backs through the air this season, allowing just 63 yards on nine catches. On top of that, Lorenzo Taliaferro’s role should continue to grow, and he could end up wresting goal-line carries from Forsett. He’s still an RB2, but he may be dealing with a timeshare.

Matchup to watch

Steve Smith vs. Adam Jones

According to Pro Football Focus, Jones has been the eighth-best cover corner this season. The Ravens haven’t gotten a thing from their receivers, and need someone, likely Smith, to give them a threat outside the numbers.

Injury report

Lorenzo Taliaferro (foot): Questionable
Breshad Perriman (knee): Out

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Jaguars

19th

5th

16th

15th

Patriots

28th

21st

30th

17th

Vegas lines

Patriots -14
Over/under 48
Jaguars o/u 17.5
Patriots o/u 31.5

Here’s the good news for those of you invested in the Jaguars this week. The Patriots will force Blake Bortles and company to do what they can to keep up. That has been great for both Ben Roethlisberger and Colin Kaepernick this season. We know the Patriots are a machine, but this could be one of the most explosive fantasy games of Week 3. T.J. Yeldon needs to be in your lineup.

Player who could surprise: LeGarrette Blount

Stick with me on this one. Dion Lewis has been undeniably great this year. Bill Belichick loves to pull the rug out with his running backs. He also saw the Bills get back in last week’s fast-paced game. If the Patriots get out to a big lead, don’t be surprised if they pound the rock with Blount to keep Jacksonville’s offense on the sideline.

Player who could disappoint: Dion Lewis

This is the Newtonian reaction to the action above. If Blount does indeed put the game on ice for the Patriots, Lewis may get fewer touches than he did in either of the Patriots’ wins this season. He can still do damage with, say, 12 touches, but don’t expect as large a role.

Matchup to watch

Patriots offensive line and Tom Brady vs. Jaguars pass rush

The Patriots line ranks fifth in pass blocking this year, though a lot of that has to do with how quickly Brady delivers the ball to Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman. The Jaguars defense is built on its pass rush, which ranks sixth in the league.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Saints

29th

23rd

15th

19th

Panthers

8th

6th

10th

18th

Vegas lines

Panthers -8
Over/under 42
Saints o/u NA
Panthers o/u NA

This line could still change dramatically because of Drew Brees’ absence. The Panthers have their way with a Brees-less Saints team that is likely to struggle offensively. The ceiling for everyone on New Orleans came crashing down when Brees was ruled out.

Player who could surprise: Jonathan Stewart

Pretty much everyone expects Stewart to finish as an RB2 this week. That would not be a surprise. Given the matchup and potential game flow, however, he could be a top-10 back in Week 3. He is questionable because of a knee injury, but is expected to start. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him carry the ball 22 to 25 times in this one. He could be in for a monster game.

Player who could disappoint: Brandin Cooks

If I didn’t care about continuity, I’d label this specific one “player who will disappoint.” Cooks hasn’t taken off as many expected him too this year, and now he’ll be playing with Luke McCown. That’s an awful setup for a receiver who isn’t a significant red-zone or deep threat. He’s no more than a WR3 this week.

Matchup to watch

Saints run blocking vs. Carolina run defense

If the Saints have any chance at pulling the upset, it’ll have to be on the strength of their run game. According to Pro Football Focus, the Saints have been the seventh-best run-blocking team in the league this year. If they bring that to a bear against a Carolina defense that is about league average against the run, Mark Ingram can be the fantasy star of this game.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Eagles

15th

13th

26th

7th

Jets

10th

2nd

22nd

9th

Vegas lines

Jets -2
Over/under 45.5
Eagles o/u 22
Jets o/u 24

The team totals add up to an over, and that’s a sign that Vegas may expect a good deal of scoring in this one. Both starting running backs are banged up heading into this game, but it looks like DeMarco Murray, and not Chris Ivory, is the better bet to play. If the Philadelphia line doesn’t figure something out, that might not matter.

Player who could surprise: Ryan Mathews

Even if Murray plays Sunday, Mathews is likely to have a larger role in the offense than he has had to this point of the season. There’s a chance that his running style is a better fit in Chip Kelly’s offense, and that could lead to him having some success where Murray has struggled. The latter’s balky hamstring could also force the Eagles to feature Mathews against the Jets.

Player who could disappoint: Sam Bradford

You’re likely only starting Bradford in two-quarterback or daily formats, but even there he may continue disappointing fantasy owners. The Jets have given up a couple big plays through the air this season, but they’ve been mostly good in wins over the Browns and Colts. Bradford’s saving grace could be Darelle Revis’ groin injury. The star cornerback is a game-time decision, and would be a huge loss for the Jets. If he’s out there, however, don’t expect more than a mid-tier QB2 performance from Bradford.

Matchup to watch: Buster Skrine vs. Eagles receivers

Skrine is the Jets’ primary slot corner, but he could be tasked with a much bigger assignment if Revis is out. Skrine has been one of the best slot corners in the league thus far, allowing just a 67.2 quarterback rating on 11 targets. Along with Revis and Antonio Cromartie, he gives the Jets one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Buccaneers

20th

31st

24th

12th

Texans

31st

14th

6th

28th

Vegas lines

Texans -6.5
Over/under 40.5
Buccaneers o/u 17
Texans o/u 23.5

This is the lowest over/under of Week 3, which should tell you a lot about the state of the Texans’ offense. This Buccaneers defense allowed four touchdown passes to Marcus Mariota in his career debut, yet is part of a game total that is south of 41. Don’t go here for your flier plays in Week 3.

Player who could surprise: Mike Evans

Evans sat out Week 1 with a hamstring injury, then posted a no-show on three targets last week. That has some people worried about the second-year receiver out of Texas A&M. Don’t be one of those people. Everything lines up for a big game for Evans this week. His hamstring is fully healthy, the Tampa run game does not match up well with Houston’s defense, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins is out with a shoulder injury. There’s also the fact that Evans is a 6’5”, 231-pound red-zone beast who doubled as one of the best deep receivers as a rookie.

Player who could disappoint: Doug Martin

The Martin rebound season hasn’t exactly taken off just yet, and this is simply a bad matchup for him. The Texans have been better than league average in terms of surrendering fantasy points to running backs and run defense, according to Pro Football Focus. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have been the worst run-blocking team in the league. If they are going to go into Houston and leave with a win, they’ll likely need Jameis Winston and the passing game to carry them. Martin is no more than a flex play.

Matchup to watch

Buccaneers offensive line vs. Texans pass rush

J.J. Watt already has three sacks, though the rest of the Houston pass rush has been underwhelming. Tampa Bay’s offensive line will need to find a way to keep Watt at bay if Evans is going to blow up, as I expect.

San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Chargers

17th

26th

5th

22nd

Vikings

6th

22nd

3rd

21st

Vegas lines

Vikings -2/5
Over/under 45
Chargers o/u 21
Vikings o/u 23.5

The team totals add up to a half-point less than the game total, a hint that this game may be driven by the defenses and run games. Adrian Peterson is always the center of attention, but expect to see a whole lot of Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead for the Chargers.

Player who could surprise: Melvin Gordon

Speaking of the Chargers rookie running back, much has been made of his taking a backseat to Danny Woodhead. That simply isn’t the case. Gordon looked great last week, running for 88 yards on 16 carries. He may give up obvious passing downs to Woodhead, but the Chargers are only going to get him more and more involved as his rookie year progresses. The Vikings have allowed nearly five yards per carry this season. Gordon should feast.

Player who could disappoint: Philip Rivers

Matthew Stafford threw for 286 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings last week, but he needed 53 attempts to get there. The Vikings have allowed just 5.71 yards per attempt this season. Rivers is no more than a high-end QB2 in this matchup.

Matchup to watch

Keenan Allen vs. Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman

Both of Minnesota’s corners have garnered negative coverage grades from Pro Football Focus through two games. Allen was a monster Week 1, but a near no-show in Week 2. This matchup bodes well, but you can never be too sure with his inconsistency.

Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Steelers

32nd

4th

21st

31st

Rams

4th

27th

2nd

20th

Vegas lines

Steelers -1
Over/under 49
Steelers o/u 25
Rams o/u 24

This should be one of the more interesting, exciting games of the weekend. The Steelers already looked like the had one of the best offenses, and that was before getting Le’Veon Bell, arguably the most complete back in the league, back in the fold. On the other side, the Rams feature a front four that can terrorize quarterbacks and running backs alike. If you use multiple screens on Sunday, this game should be on one of them.

Player who could surprise: Jared Cook

We know the Steelers are going to score. A lot. They’ll force Nick Foles to throw the ball somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 times, and he could very well turn to his tight end more frequently than he has in the team’s first two games. The Steelers have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends this season, and only three of those were to Rob Gronkowski. Cook is always good for a big game or two per season. This could be one of those games.

Player who could disappoint: Todd Gurley

All signs point to Gurley making his NFL debut on Sunday, but don’t expect the former Georgia Bulldog to bring Athens to St. Louis right away. He’s coming off a gruesome knee injury, and the team will likely want to ease him in all season, with an eye on having him fresh in November and December. I’d be staying away from him in all formats.

Matchup to watch

Rams front four vs. Ben Roethlisberger

There’s essentially no stopping the Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown connection, and adding Bell arguably gives Pittsburgh the best offense in the league. This front four, however is the one that could really make Roethlisberger’s life a nightmare and force him into a handful of poor decisions.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

49ers

16th

20th

27th

10th

Cardinals

5th

19th

19th

5th

Vegas lines

Cardinals -6.5
Over/under 44.5
49ers o/u 19
Cardinals o/u 25.5

This is a pretty interesting game between a pair of NFC West teams who both should be feeling pretty good about themselves. Given the way both quarterbacks have played this year, this could be a sneaky high-scoring affair. Find a way to get invested in this in your daily endeavors.

Player who could surprise: Anquan Boldin

Boldin is widely viewed as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 in a matchup with his old team, but he brings top-20 upside into this matchup. Jay Cutler was having a nice game against the Cardinals last week before injury his hamstring. Colin Kaepernick isn’t exactly a similar player, but the point is that teams can beat this Arizona defense through the air. With the way Carson Palmer and the Cardinals’ passing attack has played this air, the 49ers may have no other choice.

Player who could disappoint: John Brown

Brown has caught nine of his 12 targets for 91 yards and a score this season. He has yet to hit on a deep ball in Arizona’s two games, with his long reception standing at 14 yards. Brown is at his best when he’s stretching the field, but with Larry Fitzgerald working his way back to the top of the depth chart, Brown may not get a ton of opportunities to make plays against the 49ers this weekend.

Matchup to watch

Carlos Hyde vs. Cardinals run defense

The Cardinals may have comfortably defeated the Bears, but the latter was right with them until Cutler’s injury. Matt Forte had 61 yards on 15 carries, and also caught four passes for 44 yards. Hyde’s a strong rebound candidate in Week 3.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Bills

30th

11th

28th

27th

Dolphins

9th

8th

23rd

25th

Vegas lines

Dolphins -2.5
Over/under 42
Bills o/u 20
Dolphins o/u 22.5

This is a game that figures to be a defensive battle, but both offenses have shown they can get up and down the field, specifically last week when the Bills hung 32 on the Patriots, while Ryan Tannehill threw for 359 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Jaguars. This still has the feel of a 23-17 game.

Player who could surprise: Jordan Cameron

Cameron was able to practice on Friday, which is great news for the Dolphins. He has just seven receptions this season, but he’s doing exactly what the Dolphins expected him to when they signed him. Namely, he’s making big plays, posting a 19.3 yards-per-catch average on those seven grabs. The Bills have allowed 15 catches for 173 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends this year.

Player who could disappoint: Tyrod Taylor

Taylor has been great in the first two starts of his career, throwing for 437 yards, 8.92 yards per attempt and four touchdowns (against three interceptions), while also running for 84 yards and a score. He hasn’t faced a defense quite like Miami’s, which has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. He has done enough to earn our trust as a QB2, but he’s still just in the middle of that group.

Matchup to watch

Sammy Watkins vs. Brent Grimes

Grimes has been one of the best corners in the league dating back to his time with the Falcons and he is up to his old tricks again this year, ranking as Pro Football Focus’ fifth-best cover corner. Poor Watkins already had to deal with Vontae Davis in Week 1, and now he’ll get a heavy dose of Grimes on Sunday.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Bears

27th

15th

31st

2nd

Seahawks

26th

7th

20th

26th

Vegas lines

Seahawks -15
Over/under 43.5
Bears o/u 14.5
Seahawks o/u 29.5

There’s a very real chance that this game gets ugly by the end of the first quarter. The Bears are sending Jimmy Clausen into Seattle without Alshon Jeffery, and are bringing a defense that has yet to register a sack this season. How is this line just 15 points?

Player who could surprise: Doug Baldwin

The Bears have been awful against the pass this year, surrendering the sixth-most points to quarterbacks and second-most points to receivers. Chances are Russell Wilson has a big game, and while he may finally get Jimmy Graham seriously involved, at least one of his receivers is likely to put up WR2 numbers, as well. Baldwin is the best bet to be that receiver.

Player who could disappoint: Matt Forte

Forte may end up being collateral damage amidst the wreckage that once was the Chicago Bears. It’s hard to imagine this game being close for long, and the first thing to leave a gameplan in that eventuality is the run game. This is just a terrible situation for one of the best running backs in the league.

Matchup to watch

Jimmy Graham vs. Bears linebackers and safeties

The squeaky wheel great often gets the grease, and Graham has been squeaking all week after getting just two targets against the Packers. Expect Wilson and the Seahawks coaching staff to appease him with ample targets on Sunday. There doesn’t seem to be anyone on this Bears defense who can stay with him.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Broncos

1st

18th

1st

14th

Lions

22nd

32nd

17th

23rd

Vegas lines

Broncos -3.5
Over/under 45
Broncos o/u 24.5
Lions o/u 21

It’s little surprise that Vegas chose to place the extra half-point on the side of the over with the way the Broncos’ offense played in the second half against the Chiefs last week. Don’t forget that they will have had 10 days off before taking the field against the Lions. Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are slam dunks, but C.J. Anderson should finally be able to produce, at least, a high-end RB2 game.

Player who could surprise: Ameer Abdullah

Abdullah was essentially non-existent in the Detroit gameplan in Minnesota last week, getting just seven touches in the loss. He’s clearly one of the most explosive players on the team and simply needs to be more involved every week, even if it’s just 12 to 14 touches. This is a very tough matchup for him, but the Denver defense makes its money with its corners and linebackers. Abdullah can take advantage.

Player who could disappoint: Golden Tate

Aqib Talib isn’t the only star corner in Denver. Chris Harris rates as Pro Football Focus’ sixth-best corner this season, and was the analytics site’s top corner last season. Just like Calvin Johnson, Tate will have his hands full.

Matchup to watch

Calvin Johnson vs. Aqib Talib

One of the league’s truly elite receivers going up against the best cornerback in the game today. This is appointment television.

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

Team

vs. QB

vs. RB

vs. WR

vs. TE

Chiefs

24th

3rd

32nd

8th

Packers

21st

17th

7th

16th

Vegas lines

Packers -7
Over/under 49
Chiefs o/u 21
Packers o/u 28

When the Packers play at home, you can pretty much etch 250 yards and three touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers in stone. The Chiefs really should be 2-0, have had 11 days to prepare for this showdown, and have the perfect Rodgers kryptonite in the form of Jamaal Charles. This will be a great way to put a bow on Week 3.

Player who could surprise: Jeremy Maclin

Maclin has been quiet in Kansas City’s first two games, and the Packers have limited receivers to the seventh-fewest fantasy points thus far. Still, the Chiefs have the chops to stick with the Packers in Lambeau, and if they are going to do that, they’ll need contributions from someone other than Charles and Travis Kelce. Both Casey Hayward and Sam Shields have struggled in coverage this year.

Player who could disappoint: James Jones

Jones has been a revelation in his return to Green Bay, catching three touchdowns in the team’s first two games. However, he has just five total receptions on seven targets. That’s a ridiculous touchdown rate that simply has to slow down.

Matchup to watch

Randall Cobb vs. Phillip Gaines

Gaines is the Chiefs’ primary slot corner, meaning he’ll see a lot of Cobb on Monday night. He has allowed just a 78.9 quarterback rating on nine targets, so Cobb could very well have his work cut out for him. At the same time, Gaines hasn’t yet seen a slot combo like Rodgers and Cobb.

Injury report

The official injury report for Monday Night Football is not available until Sunday, but the only players to watch are Eddie Lacy (ankle) and Davante Adams (ankle). Both were limited participants in Green Bay’s practice on Friday.

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