Topic: Jewish demography

Josh Nathan-Kazis of the Forwardbrings to our attention a Siena College poll of New York voters that adds a little more fuel to the fire about whether President Obama is losing ground among Jewish voters. The poll, which provides a breakdown by religion, shows the president is only leading Republican Mitt Romney by a 51-43 percent margin among New York Jews. Considering that Obama has a lopsided 59-35 percent edge among all voters, the poll seems to confirm the much discussed results of the new demographic survey of Jewish life in Greater New York which shows the traditional stereotype of Jews as secular liberals is heading for the dustbin of history.

This does illustrate how solidly blue New York is, as the decline in support for Obama in a group that has traditionally been among the most loyal to the Democrats is having no effect on the president’s chances of winning the state. But it does tell us that, despite the Democrats’ claim the GOP is blowing smoke about making gains in the Jewish vote this year, Obama is in serious trouble among Jews. The question the president’s supporters have to be asking themselves after reading this poll is how different New York Jews are from those in the rest of the country, especially swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania, where the Jewish vote could be crucial in a tight election.

Josh Nathan-Kazis of the Forwardbrings to our attention a Siena College poll of New York voters that adds a little more fuel to the fire about whether President Obama is losing ground among Jewish voters. The poll, which provides a breakdown by religion, shows the president is only leading Republican Mitt Romney by a 51-43 percent margin among New York Jews. Considering that Obama has a lopsided 59-35 percent edge among all voters, the poll seems to confirm the much discussed results of the new demographic survey of Jewish life in Greater New York which shows the traditional stereotype of Jews as secular liberals is heading for the dustbin of history.

This does illustrate how solidly blue New York is, as the decline in support for Obama in a group that has traditionally been among the most loyal to the Democrats is having no effect on the president’s chances of winning the state. But it does tell us that, despite the Democrats’ claim the GOP is blowing smoke about making gains in the Jewish vote this year, Obama is in serious trouble among Jews. The question the president’s supporters have to be asking themselves after reading this poll is how different New York Jews are from those in the rest of the country, especially swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania, where the Jewish vote could be crucial in a tight election.

Democrats can comfort themselves by pointing out that if, as the population study showed, 40 percent of all Jews in New York City are Orthodox, then that is bound to produce a result that will not be replicated elsewhere. Orthodox Jews, a group far more conservative and more likely to vote Republican than the non-Orthodox, make up a much smaller percentage of the community in most other places in the country. Therefore, it can be argued that the New York results don’t indicate a general shift among Jews away from Obama or to the right.

Even if we were to assume these numbers are isolated to New York, it confirms the conclusions we drew last week that the demographic changes wrought both by assimilation and intermarriage among the non-Orthodox and the Orthodox population growth represents the beginning of the end for liberal Jewry as a dominant political force both in New York and nationally.

Nevertheless, even though the Orthodox are not as numerous in Florida or Pennsylvania, they are growing there too, which means the assumption that Obama will romp among Jews with margins anywhere close to the 78 percent he won nationally in 2008 is probably mistaken.

Even if we discount for the Orthodox effect (who even in New York City, let alone the rest of the state, make up less than half of the Jewish population), this shows Obama is bleeding Jewish support. Nathan-Kazis believes it shows Jews are just following the same trend among the general population, because the uptick for Romney is mirrored there. Maybe. But if Jews are no longer liberal outliers, that in of itself is news. And that is something that could lead to Obama having a historically poor showing among Jewish voters that could rival that of Jimmy Carter in 1980.

What all this means is the Jewish Democrats will have a choice after November. They can blame the president’s poor showing among Jews on demography and thereby concede it is only a matter of time before the GOP will compete on even terms for Jewish votes. Or they can blame it on the president’s attitude toward Israel — a factor about which they have been in denial for the past four years — and claim Democrats with better records on the issue will not have the same problem in the future. It’s an interesting dilemma, and I look forward to learning how they will answer it.

As Jonathan pointed out, the new survey of New York Jewish life–which is a considerable portion of American Jewish life–shows the liberal wings of organized Jewry to be both less organized and less Jewish, in terms of their practice, affiliation, and education. It also raises serious questions about how less observant Jews have responded to this demographic challenge. They are not putting their children into Jewish day schools, it seems. And their attitude toward philanthropic giving sharply contrasts with that of their forebears, and does not at all rise to meet the needs of the moment.

As the authors write: “Jews are devoting more of their giving to nonsectarian rather than specifically Jewish causes, as seen in the behavior of younger Jews versus older Jews and in the behavior of Jews more recently as compared with earlier points in history.” Additionally, the “number of Jewish philanthropic causes and organizations has proliferated,” while the “donor base for Jewish federations in North America has diminished.” There is less to go around, yet the Jewish community is spreading itself thinner and even giving more to non-Jewish causes. One problem with this approach becomes clear in the section of the report on poverty.

As Jonathan pointed out, the new survey of New York Jewish life–which is a considerable portion of American Jewish life–shows the liberal wings of organized Jewry to be both less organized and less Jewish, in terms of their practice, affiliation, and education. It also raises serious questions about how less observant Jews have responded to this demographic challenge. They are not putting their children into Jewish day schools, it seems. And their attitude toward philanthropic giving sharply contrasts with that of their forebears, and does not at all rise to meet the needs of the moment.

As the authors write: “Jews are devoting more of their giving to nonsectarian rather than specifically Jewish causes, as seen in the behavior of younger Jews versus older Jews and in the behavior of Jews more recently as compared with earlier points in history.” Additionally, the “number of Jewish philanthropic causes and organizations has proliferated,” while the “donor base for Jewish federations in North America has diminished.” There is less to go around, yet the Jewish community is spreading itself thinner and even giving more to non-Jewish causes. One problem with this approach becomes clear in the section of the report on poverty.

It is often assumed that the growth of Haredi and “yeshivish” Jewish communities will produce a corresponding increase in poverty and the need for public assistance. But as the authors note, “most poor Jewish households are not Orthodox.” This does not mean the number of poor in the Orthodox community is low–it is not, and in fact, the Orthodox represent the largest identifiable such group. But it does mean that 58 percent of the poverty within the Jewish community cannot be attributed to this lifestyle. Additionally, Orthodox communities centered on yeshiva life–usually referred to as yeshiva communities but in this report referred to as “yeshivish”–boast a significant communal support network, in addition to classic charitable giving.

Made up of gemachs, a Hebrew acronym of the term meaning acts of kindness, this network goes a long way toward making up for the material sacrifices made by low-income yeshiva households. Some Jewish communities have so many gemachs they have their own version of the Yellow Pages. The gemachs are families or companies that lend out items to those in need, including everything from books to wedding dresses to childcare products. To put it bluntly: the Orthodox Jewish community may have poor households, but its members possess an admirable and energetic sense of duty to one another.

The need for outside assistance, often from the local government, is therefore even more crucial for the non-observant. But their charitable organizations are raising money for those outside their own community as the number of Jewish poor continues to rise. In the Jewish community, it unfortunately seems that communal solidarity is fading along with observance. The community seems to be failing its Russian immigrants as well. Seven of every 10 elderly Russian speakers are poor, according to the study.

Is it any wonder then that, next to the Orthodox, Russian immigrants are the most identifiable conservative-leaning subgroup? Their more liberal brethren can’t be bothered to establish and support the kind of Jewish institutions that would help such immigrants form a bond with their new community. And the liberal/secular inclination to watch Jewish immigrants live in poverty while they pursue vague forms of tikkunolam and global citizenship is surely a failure to prioritize, even if their new pet causes are worthwhile (as many of them are).

The Orthodox certainly face challenges as their community grows. The Haredi community’s insularity means they must work hard to ensure that guidance counselors, special-needs educators, and other forms of crucial youth development services are available to their community. And poverty is often correlated with health risks that should not be ignored. But the Orthodox are also the source of the positive trends in the study. If the goal is Jewish continuity–as of course it should be–the Orthodox are leading the way.

A new survey of the Jewish population in the Greater New York area contradicts the conventional wisdom about the subject. It has long been assumed that any portrait of American Jews must tell us a story about an aging, liberal population that is rapidly assimilating. But, as the New York Times reports, the latest results show that the population of the largest center of Jewish life outside of Israel is actually growing. The survey’s estimate of New York City’s Jewish community pegs it at about 1.1 million, with 1.54 million being counted when you include the surrounding suburban counties on Long Island and Westchester (Jews in Northern New Jersey who would also be considered part of Greater New York were not counted). Of even greater import is that the rapid expansion of ultra-Orthodox and Hasidic Jewry are the sole reason for this population growth. By contrast, the numbers of Jews who identity with the heretofore much larger non-Orthodox movements have declined precipitately. The only other sector that is growing is made up of those Jews who reject all the denominations or eschew religion entirely.

If, as the survey tells us, 40 percent of Jews in New York City and 74 percent of all Jewish children are Orthodox, then this must inform our conclusions not only about what American Jews believe but also about its future. When combined with the nearly one-third of Jews who are abandoning Jewish identity altogether, this paints a picture of an American Jewish population that is comprised of two ships passing each other in the night — one becoming increasingly Orthodox and the other on the brink of not being Jewish at all. Because the Orthodox have radically different views on political issues from those of the non-Orthodox as well as generally identifying more thoroughly with Israel, this will inevitably alter the political balance of the community. Though the numbers may be different elsewhere in the country, with about one-third of American Jewry located in Greater New York, there’s little doubt this means the Jewish community of the future will be far less liberal.

A new survey of the Jewish population in the Greater New York area contradicts the conventional wisdom about the subject. It has long been assumed that any portrait of American Jews must tell us a story about an aging, liberal population that is rapidly assimilating. But, as the New York Times reports, the latest results show that the population of the largest center of Jewish life outside of Israel is actually growing. The survey’s estimate of New York City’s Jewish community pegs it at about 1.1 million, with 1.54 million being counted when you include the surrounding suburban counties on Long Island and Westchester (Jews in Northern New Jersey who would also be considered part of Greater New York were not counted). Of even greater import is that the rapid expansion of ultra-Orthodox and Hasidic Jewry are the sole reason for this population growth. By contrast, the numbers of Jews who identity with the heretofore much larger non-Orthodox movements have declined precipitately. The only other sector that is growing is made up of those Jews who reject all the denominations or eschew religion entirely.

If, as the survey tells us, 40 percent of Jews in New York City and 74 percent of all Jewish children are Orthodox, then this must inform our conclusions not only about what American Jews believe but also about its future. When combined with the nearly one-third of Jews who are abandoning Jewish identity altogether, this paints a picture of an American Jewish population that is comprised of two ships passing each other in the night — one becoming increasingly Orthodox and the other on the brink of not being Jewish at all. Because the Orthodox have radically different views on political issues from those of the non-Orthodox as well as generally identifying more thoroughly with Israel, this will inevitably alter the political balance of the community. Though the numbers may be different elsewhere in the country, with about one-third of American Jewry located in Greater New York, there’s little doubt this means the Jewish community of the future will be far less liberal.

More than 20 years ago, the organized Jewish world was shaken by the results of the 1990 National Jewish Population Survey. It painted a sobering picture of an aging and shrinking community, but the number that galvanized discussion about the results was 52 percent. That was the survey’s estimate of the number of Jews marrying outside their faith and constituted a stunning rise above previous studies on the subject. Some experts, including Steven M. Cohen (the leader of the group who conducted the current survey about Greater New York), who later wrote that a more accurate estimate would have put the figure at 41 percent, disputed that figure. But whether it was 41 or 52 percent, there was no longer any doubt about the fact that the American Jews were undergoing a radical change. More to the point, the impact of such a high intermarriage rate as well as other indications that much of Jewry was rapidly assimilating and thereby shedding their Jewish identity, would ultimately lead to a very different looking community in the future.

These numbers scared Jewish organizations badly. But much of the concern was wrongly focused on a symptom — intermarriage — rather than the cause of the problem that was rooted in a communal culture that pinned identity on external factors such as memory of the Holocaust and support for Israel rather than on building identity via education. Nevertheless, the furor about intermarriage was enough to cause Jewish philanthropic groups to begin to focus their efforts more on causes that promoted “continuity,” fearing a future in which a dominant liberal American Jewish identity would find itself on the verge of extinction.

But 20 years later, it is more than obvious that the demographic chickens have already come home to roost for liberal Jewry. As the new study points out, even as the numbers of Orthodox Jews grow by leaps and bounds, Jewish observance is declining among the non-Orthodox. While nearly half of young Jewish adults in the region have a attended a Jewish day school of some kind, most of those who do not identity with a denomination aren’t giving their kids any sort of Jewish education. And it should also be noted that half of the non-Orthodox who marry have a spouse who is not Jewish. Because studies have shown us that the children of intermarriage are far less likely to get a Jewish education or to marry a Jew, the ominous conclusions to be drawn from these numbers are obvious.

The fact that a large proportion of the growing ultra-Orthodox sector is also poor and not connected to the rest of Jewry also complicates efforts to provide Jewish services or to unite these disparate groups into a coherent community.

But above all, this means the Jewish community of the future will be even less politically and religiously liberal. The assumption that Jewish life could be built on a largely secular lifestyle in which liberal politics would provide a substitute for faith was as foolish as the notion that it could persist on identification with the Yiddish language or certain ethnic foods. The assumption that most American Jews will always be secular liberals is a myth that has just been exploded.