In about three months, the International Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) will open up the application process for new top-level domains (TLDs), allowing companies and other organizations alike to apply to obtain their own domain extensions. There’s been considerable buzz recently about what sorts of domain names will be approved, and how this program will change the Internet landscape. Specifically, many have speculated that, given the potential marketing value for corporations, we will see a lot of branded domain extensions (e.g. .CANON, .MOTOROLA).The possibility of newgeneric TLDs (e.g. .WEB, .SHOP) competing with .COM has also been tossed around quite frequently. Despite this heat around “.BRAND” extensions and potential .COM competitors, the truth is that community-based TLDs which bring together specific groups under a shared passion or interest (e.g. .ECO, .MUSIC) will likely prove to be more successful and dynamic in the future.

First, let me take a step back to define what I mean by “success.” A successful TLD will possess three common attributes: name or brand recognition, utility and volume. Most brand TLDs will obviously meet the first criteria - name recognition - but how identifiable will the generic domains be? This is where the importance of utility comes into play, as any TLD without a clear and valuable use will, I assure you, ultimately fail. A great example of an existing TLD with an extremely high level of utility is .CAT. No, this is not an extension for our dear feline friends,but instead the domain name and main online communication platform amongst Spain’s Catalonian community. Although targeted for a small group of individuals, .CAT is a vital communication tool for that community, and thus a clear success in terms of a niche community buying into a domain and actually using it for a specific purpose, which is to "promote [their] language and culture" on the Internet.

This brings us to the final criteria: volume. While it’s a key factor to overall success, volumes should be considered in relative terms, as illustrated by the .CAT example. With corporations, the possibility of building out branded domains is finite. If a large company such as Nike, for instance, were to register .NIKE, the number of registrations would be limited to the NIKE universe. Because of this, the way that the .NIKE domain would need to effectively build volume and achieve success is to leverage its product categories through specific websites such as golf.nike, running.nike, and football.nike. The bottom line being, it’s not how big the number is, but what the number represents.

A common assumption in the domain name industry is that there may be a handful of new generic domains that actually succeed, and based on past history, that’s most likely true. For example, we know that a few organizations will apply for .WEB, and a number of insiders are betting that this extension will gain market share, positioning it as a viable competitor to .COM. On the flip side, others insist just the opposite: that .WEB is archaic since an increasing emphasis is being placed on the mobile market. While we can expect a few successful generics, it’s clear that most applying for these types of domains are using a “roll the dice and hope for a hit” strategy. Without defining a sense of utility that brings a community together behind a specific purpose, most of these extensions will inevitably lack longevity.

There’s been quite a spectacle around corporate or brand-based TLDs, particularly within the intellectual property and advertising communities, who represent a large number of worldwide brands and continue a vehement fight in opposition of ICANN’s upcoming new domain round. Others are intrigued by the potential opportunity for corporate domain names to transform online branding. While brand-based TLDs may see some form of success, it will not be the type that most associate with domains, which is typically based on scaling and growing business. At the end of the day, it’s likely that onlya small number of corporate entities who do apply for their own “.BRAND” extensions will actively use them. Most of these corporate registrations will be for brand protection and will simply sit on a shelf.

So, that leads us to the community-based extensions - .ECO, .MUSIC or .NGO, to name just a few. When you mix these extensions’ potential for scale with the dynamism of a community itself, the result will be a completely unique space on the Internet. These communities come with a built-in sense of passion, common interest and drive to promote a cause. By providing them with a unique and targeted place on the Internet, a community-based TLD presents a truly powerful platform for common interest groups to come together and promote their causes. The potential for growth and adoption of these new domains by their respective communities is exponential, which leads me and many other industry insiders to believe they will be more prevalent and successful than their counterparts.

Regardless of what types of TLDs will be applied for, approved and implemented, it’s very clear that ICANN’s new domain round will drastically change the organization of the Internet, hopefully for the better. While brand-based and generic TLDs are fascinating in terms of their potential to shake-up domain name giants and revolutionize online branding, only a handful of them will possess staying power. Community-based extensions, however, will offer groups an online name with which they can identify, will serve a specific and valuable purpose, and have the potential for high growth and implementation, hitting the trifecta of success measures for new TLDs: name recognition, utility and volume.