The objective of this study is to develop an application of the Kalman filter for filtering and forecasting iceberg positions and velocities in order to calculate the risk of impact against a fixed structure or stationary vessel.
Existing physical and probabilistic models are reviewed. Physical models are essentially
based on the response of the iceberg to the forces acting on it.
Statistical models forecast the motion of the iceberg based on past observations of the trajectory. A probabilistic iceberg trajectory model is used in this study so that uncertainties
in the trajectory forecast can be explicitly included. The technique of Kalman filtering is described and applied to forecast future positions and velocities of an ice feature,
including uncertainties.The trajectory forecast combined with a risk calculation, yields the probability of impact and the probability distribution of the time until impact.
Numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate and validate the procedure.