Monday, 18 February 2008

Tackling the Two-Third Majority Problem: Part I - The Facts from 2004 Election

This is the FIRST of the series on the 2008 General Election.

We start with the findings and analysis of the 2004 General Election.

Let's face it. The 2004 election result is a WORST CASE SCENARIO for the Opposition.

In 2004, Barisan Nasional had won by a landslide with much much more than two-third majority. The BN won more over 200 seats out of the total of 222 seats contested, with UMNO alone taking 97 seats in Peninusular and 13 seats in Sabah.

It cannot get any worse for the Opposition parties than their disastrous and embarrassing defeat in 2004.

As any strategist will tell you, you PLAN from the worst case scenario and HOPE for the best case outcomes. And the result of the 2004 Election should therefore form the basis for the Opposition parties to launch their campaign to at least deny the BN the two-third majority, if not, to win Government.

Therefore, the lessons of the 2004 election have to be learnt by voters and by Opposition parties for their 2008 campaign.

There has to be strategic focus in those vulnerable seats in the Peninsular and in Sabah and Sarawak to deny UMNO and its cohorts in BN the 2/3 majority.

There are 222 seats (165 in Peninsular, 25 in Sabah, and 31 in Sarawak and 1 in Labuan (Federal Territory).

To reduce BN's two-third majority would mean, the total number of seats for the BN should be LESS than 148.

The Opposition Parties need to win at least 75 seats spread across the 11 states in the Peninsular, Sabah , Sarawak and Labuan Federal Territory in the 2008 election.

In 2004 landslide victory, UMNO won only 97 seats in the Peninsular and 13 in Sabah, a total of 110 seats. In the Peninsular, UMNO needs MCA and MIC seats to have the two-third majority.

That is, the non-Malays especially the Chinese ( and the Indians) can deny the BN the two-third majority by:

a) NOT voting MCA and MIC candidates. (Note that a VOTE FOR MCA and MIC is a VOTE for UMNO)

b) NOT voting UMNO candidates in Malay-majority seats where UMNO has a straight fight with PAS/PKR. (These seats will be identified later).

We would expect the Opposition Parties to have a common strategy to target and focus at least 75 IDENTIFIED vulnerable seats, not only in the Peninsular, but also in Sabah and Sarawak., to avoid "spreading the butter too thin".

To those in Civil Society and in the Malaysian blogosphere, there is a moral obligation to assist the Opposition Parties to deny the BN the two-third majority in those vulnerable seats.

The results of the 2004 Election would be a good starting point.

WATCH THIS SPACE.. for further insights into the results of the 2004 Election and implications for the 2008 election.

TABLE 1: PARLIAMENTARY SEATS WON BY BN AND OPPOSITION PARTIES BY STATE IN 2004