Cullen: Comparing results to 2013 NHL point projections

Scott Cullen7/22/2013 11:35:49 AM

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Every NHL season, there are countless projections focused on how much players will score. Each year, I go back and look at my forecast to see where I missed the mark. Without fail, there are players who significantly exceed expectations and, without fail, there are others that fall flat.

Below is a comparison of my 2013 NHL point projections with their actual points-per-game results.

One of the biggest disappointments, on a points-per-game basis, was actually Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins centre who finished with 33 points in 31 games. That production is nothing to scoff at, but after leading the league with 109 points in 2011-2012, and ripping up the KHL during the lockout (scoring 65 points in 37 games), Malkin was my projected top scorer.

Beyond Malkin, among those projected for better than a point-per-game the biggest underachievers in terms of point production were: Daniel Sedin, Joe Thornton and Ilya Kovalchuk. (Note: This is a simple differential being used, so it's much easier for Malkin to be further off from his projection than some player in the middle or low end of the pool. Chad LaRose's ratio from 0.44 to 0.11, for example, is much, much worse.)

Oddly enough, what was easily my most contentious preseason projection -- calling for Oilers right winger Jordan Eberle to have a dip in production -- turned out to be on the mark. When looking at so many that finish above and below my forecasts, it eases the mind a little to at least be on target once in a while.

To make sure my head doesn't get too big about it, though, here are the players that finished in the Top 200 in league scoring, but were not in my Top 300 Projections.