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China's Inflation Higher Than Target Rate, Could Be a Sign It's Time to Tame Rapid Growth

China's inflation rate rose 3.1% in May from a year earlier, exceeding the government's 3% target rate for 2010 and stirring speculation on whether or not Beijing will attempt to slow the nation's rapid growth pace.

The consumer price index climb was the fastest in 19 months and was higher than the 2.8% rate in April. The National Bureau of Statistics also posted increases in industrial production, retail sales, and property prices, which contributed to analysts wondering whether or not China will make moves to tame growth to avoid higher inflation.

The rise comes at a time when Chinese workers are starting to strike for higher wages, which could push inflation even higher.

Three Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (NYSE ADR: HMC) suppliers are dealing with employee strikes and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. is raising wages after its Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. (PINK ADR: FXCNY) iPhone-making plants have suffered a string of suicides. Companies across several industries could see pay increases from 5% to 27%.

The bank said China needed "to switch its policy priority from controlling credit to raising interest rates in order to counter the risk of run-away inflation."

Some Chinese lawmakers are supporting a rate hike that would give depositors more interest on savings. Savers are getting 2.25% at the benchmark rate, meaning a loss of deposits after inflation is taken into account.

Hutchinson said the wage increases paired with higher real estate prices that are not accurately depicted in the inflation numbers are sure to drive China's inflation rate higher.

"Although China's productivity is rising, it's not doing so quickly enough to absorb wage increases in the 20% to 30% range (let alone in the ultra-high-rent 66% to 75% neighborhood). Therefore, prices of Chinese goods – everything from video games to sweatshirts – are likely to rise in dollar terms. That will happen whether or not China revalues the [yuan]."

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