Thursday, September 19, 2013

The stage is set. By now it's established Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has given full authority to the new administration of President Hassan Rouhani to talk directly to Washington about Iran's nuclear program.

This happened only a few days after US President Barack Obama leaked that letters had been exchanged between himself and Rouhani.

Rouhani's empowerment was first confirmed later last week by extremely credible former nuclear negotiator ambassador Seyed Hossein Mousavian in this op-ed published in Japan. Mousavian was Rouhani's deputy in Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) from 1997 to 2005. Then Rouhani himself expanded on it this Wednesday in an interview with NBC.

It's crucial to consider the Supreme Leader's exact position. This past Tuesday, he addressed the elite of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in Tehran. [1] The key quote: "We don't accept nuclear weapons, not for the sake of the US or others, butbecause of our beliefs, and when we say that no one should have nuclear weapons, certainly we are not after them either."

Khamenei fully endorsed Rouhani's diplomatic offensive, emphasizing - not cryptically - two concepts: "heroic flexibility", as in a wrestler sometimes giving way for tactical reasons but never losing sight of the rival; and "champion's leniency" - which happens to be the subtitle of a book Khamenei himself translated from Arabic about how the second Shi'ite imam, Hasan ibn Ali, managed to prevent a war in the 7th century by showing flexibility towards his enemy.

Does that mean that a historic meeting between Obama and Rouhani next Tuesday on the sidelines of the annual UN General Assembly in New York is all but certain? No. Predictably, the White House has already exercised plausible deniability - as in Obama "not expected to meet" Rouhani.

What the process implies though, is that Washington and Tehran should be talking, sooner or later, at the highest level.

Watch the spoilers Crucially, Khamenei also told the IRGC, "It is not necessary for the guards to have activities in the political field." This implies they are out of the new nuclear negotiations, in a further confirmation of how the nuclear dossier has been transferred to the Foreign Ministry. Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is the man in charge. He will be traveling to New York with Rouhani. Here is an excellent insight into his frame of mind. As for former foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi, now appointed by Rouhani as the head of Iran's atomic energy agency, he told the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna that it was time to "end the so-called nuclear file".

The whole process, now in dizzying speed, is a radical departure from the Ahmadinejad years, when the IRGC was politicized to the extreme. One day before Khamenei's speech, Rouhani himself asked the IRGC to "stay above and beyond political currents".

So Iran is now advancing pieces in the chessboard. There's no substantial American response, so far. But the spoilers in the game are already on overdrive.

Not by accident Israel has ramped up its moves to stress the great "existential threat" to itself is the "strategic arc that extends from Tehran, to Damascus to Beirut" - as expressed by outgoing Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Oren. [2]

What is now clear is that Tel Aviv would rather have al-Qaeda-style jihadis of the Jabhat al-Nusra mould in power in Damascus than a secular Arab republic under Bashar al-Assad. That's yet another proof, if needed, of the confluence of interests between Israel and those paragons of democracy, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) petro-monarchies. No wonder all these players are bitterly despised by the Arab street.

Tel Aviv will go no holds barred to bombard the Syrian chemical weapons dossier - pressuring for "conditions" that might include non-existent Iranian weapons and pressuring for everyone to believe Assad - with Hezbollah and Iran's complicity - is not cooperating with chemical weapons inspectors. Syrian "rebel" military leader, General Selim Idriss - an Israeli-GCC puppet - has already started the campaign, saying Damascus has transferred chemical weapons to Lebanon and Iraq.

As for the House of Saud, the monarchy regards Russian diplomacy as worse than poison. They don't want even the possibility of a Geneva II conference - as Prince Bandar bin Sultan, aka Bandar Bush, head of the Saudi General Intelligence Directorate, told Putin in person. They want regime change, they want it now, and they will keep weaponizing the most lethal "rebel" factions, now on overdrive.

The Obama administration must have registered Moscow's message that Syria is indeed a Russian "red line" - as important to Russia as Israel to the US. And the White House must have registered Khamenei's own message via Sultan Qaboos of Oman; the gist of it was that "whoever intends to destroy Syria should be prepared to lose their oil and gas in the region".

The solution for the Syrian chemical weapons impasse, as reported by Asia Times Online, was worked out by Damascus, Tehran and Moscow - and later supported by Beijing. It did, in fact, save the Obama administration from itself.

Yet, an interview late last week, Obama reverted to the same old (misleading) message, when referring to Iran:

I think what the Iranians understand is that the nuclear issue is a far larger issue for us than the chemical weapons issue, that the threat against ... Israel that a nuclear Iran poses is much closer to our core interests. That a nuclear arms race in the region is something that would be profoundly destabilizing.

There is no "threat" to Israel because there will be no nuclear Iran - as Khamenei, once again, has just stressed. The (undeclared) nuclear power is Israel, not Iran. And chemical weapons were never an issue to begin with; Obama's own, reckless, "red line" turned into an issue as a means to possibly enforce his previous red line, "Assad must go".

Here, I had a shot at drawing the Big Picture. Last week, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Kyrgyzstan, Rouhani met with both Putin and China's President Xi Jinping. They are now working on a concerted strategy not only in Syria but also in terms of Iran's nuclear dossier.

Russia and China firmly support Iran's right for a civilian nuclear program. And first and foremost, the BRICS group (Brazil, India and South Africa being its other members), as well as emerging regional powers such as Indonesia, Argentina and Iran itself, will keep increasing their push towards a multi-polar international order under the rule of law, instead of the usual US hegemon going on a rampage.

Diplomacy is trying to have a shot at solving the Syrian tragedy. And diplomacy should have a shot at solving the 34-year Wall of Mistrust between Washington and Tehran. The question is whether Obama will have the "heroic flexibility" to stare down the spoilers.

It is relatively small, by most accounts containing about a kilogram (2.2 pounds) of weapons-grade uranium. That’s not much in the scheme of things when it comes to building an atomic bomb. But as Alexsandr Lukashevich of the Russian Foreign Ministry puts it, “If a warhead, by design or by chance, were to hit the Miniature Neutron Source Reactor (MSNR) near Damascus, the consequences could be catastrophic.”

Of prime concern would be “contamination by highly enriched uranium” throughout the immediate environs. At the very least, it would be “a serious local radiation hazard,” according to Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, speaking on Russia Today.

Lukashevich also predicts that “it would no longer be possible to account for nuclear material, its safety and control.” Such material, he warns darkly, could fall into “the wrong hands.” If the U.S. does ultimately attack Syria, it would want to avoid hitting that reactor. It’s also possible that in the ensuing chaos, one of the myriad unaccountable factions roaming through the civil war could target that nuke. Such a group could blame the U.S. or claim credit, depending on its particular orientation.

Whether it happens, that reactor is just another sitting atomic duck awaiting a random shooter and the cover of new chaos.

(2) Despite Secretary of State John Kerry’s promise of an “unbelievably limited” attack, once the U.S. military commits to action in Syria, it is unlikely to hold back any of its tactical arsenal. That would almost certainly include depleted uranium (DU).

When shells made of this super-hard material penetrate armored vehicles, hardened bunkers and other structures, the DU disperses into fine radioactive particulates that are easily inhaled. Wherever deployed—as in Yugoslavia, Iraq and Afghanistan—DU inflicts horrifying health consequences, including cancer among people of all ages and birth defects among children born well after its use. Uranium-238 has a half-life of 4.5 billion years, imposing virtually permanent contamination.

Should DU weaponry be used yet again, this time in Syria, the contamination would be widespread and irreversible. Many thousands of innocent people—including the countless unborn—would suffer greatly. As with all radioactive fallout, the lethal effects will stretch through the generations.

(3) When the world’s superpowers collide, nuclear war is always a possibility.

At this point, the U.S. and Russia appear to be coming together. But in this too-often irrational global tinderbox, the stakes could not be higher.

In such situations, we hope for the best, but can’t lose sight of the potential worst.

In Tuesday night’s speech, President Obama mentioned the use of chemical weapons during World War I. He might also recall that a bizarre assassination in Sarajevo by a tiny handful of young Serb nationals somehow touched off a four-year war that killed 10 million people outright, plus another 10 million—including 500,000 Americans—in the influenza epidemic that followed.

To this day, the circumstances that sparked that war are virtually impossible to comprehend. They seem, indeed, to have somehow acquired a devastating momentum all their own.

Yet the instability of the Balkans back then pales before the flashpoint that is today’s Middle East. A protest in Syria turned into a civil war, and then a proxy war. It could easily expand into a regional and, in the worst case, global, conflict. Looming in the background of the tense, torturous negotiations yet to come is the reality that despite everyone’s best wishes, diplomatic failure is a distinct possibility—one that could ultimately become synonymous with the atomic unthinkable.

(4) In the bottomless turbulence that defines today’s Middle East, the Americans and Russians so far seem to retain some shreds of rationality. But given the Peaceful Atom’s half century of weapons-grade proliferation, we cannot know which nations or marginal groups might now have atomic devices and what random impulses might prompt their use.

In a profoundly unpredictable world, each of the more than 400 commercial-sized reactors still operating continues to produce radioactive materials that could fuel a nuclear weapon.

Each of those reactors is itself a profoundly vulnerable target. Should the situation in Syria devolve to a wider war, the likelihood of a freelance atomic “situation” becomes all too probable.

(5) While the world’s attention is focused on Syria, the global-scale disaster at Fukushima spirals out of control.

The more serious the crisis in Syria, the more it will divert attention from an existing nuclear disaster.

Millions of tons of heavily contaminated water continuously flow through the site in central Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. Millions more accumulate in flimsy tanks already breaking apart, all within the specter of the next earthquake.

The three melted cores at Fukushima Daiichi have yet to be found. The common radioactive waste pool near Unit Four is surrounded by buildings whose foundations are being undermined by the continuous flow of radioactive water.

Most terrifying, the entire core of Unit Four remains perched in a damaged fuel pool 100 feet in the air, atop a structure that’s sinking. Should it crash to the ground, that core could potentially spew into the ocean and atmosphere more than 20,000 times the radiation released at Hiroshima.

A sane species would be pouring all its resources into somehow healing the open apocalyptic wound that still festers at Fukushima.

Yet we are tied up in Syria. We can be deeply grateful that the situation there today seems at least slightly less dangerous than it did yesterday.

But atomic danger lurks without warning in every facet of this crisis.

It is relatively small, by most accounts
containing about a kilogram (2.2 pounds) of weapons-grade uranium. That’s not
much in the scheme of things when it comes to building an atomic bomb. But as
Alexsandr Lukashevich of the Russian Foreign Ministry puts it, “If a warhead, by design or by
chance, were to hit the Miniature Neutron Source Reactor (MSNR) near Damascus,
the consequences could be catastrophic.”

Of prime concern would be “contamination by
highly enriched uranium” throughout the immediate environs. At the very least,
it would be “a serious local radiation hazard,” according to Mark Hibbs of the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, speaking on Russia Today.

Lukashevich also predicts that “it would no
longer be possible to account for nuclear material, its safety and control.”
Such material, he warns darkly, could fall into “the wrong hands.” If the U.S.
does ultimately attack Syria, it would want to avoid hitting that reactor. It’s
also possible that in the ensuing chaos, one of the myriad unaccountable
factions roaming through the civil war could target that nuke. Such a group
could blame the U.S. or claim credit, depending on its particular orientation.

Whether it happens, that reactor is just another
sitting atomic duck awaiting a random shooter and the cover of new chaos.

(2) Despite Secretary of State John Kerry’s
promise of an “unbelievably limited” attack, once the U.S. military commits to
action in Syria, it is unlikely to hold back any of its tactical arsenal. That
would almost certainly include depleted uranium (DU).

When shells made of this super-hard material
penetrate armored vehicles, hardened bunkers and other structures, the DU
disperses into fine radioactive particulates that are easily inhaled. Wherever
deployed—as in Yugoslavia, Iraq and Afghanistan—DU inflicts horrifying health
consequences, including cancer among people of all ages and birth
defects among children born well after its use. Uranium-238 has a half-life
of 4.5 billion years, imposing virtually permanent contamination.

Should DU weaponry be used yet again, this time
in Syria, the contamination would be widespread and irreversible. Many
thousands of innocent people—including the countless unborn—would suffer
greatly. As with all radioactive fallout, the lethal effects will stretch through
the generations.

(3) When the world’s superpowers collide, nuclear
war is always a possibility.

At this point, the U.S. and Russia appear to be
coming together. But in this too-often irrational global tinderbox, the stakes
could not be higher.

In such situations, we hope for the best, but
can’t lose sight of the potential worst.

In Tuesday night’s speech, President Obama
mentioned the use of chemical weapons during World War I. He might also recall
that a bizarre assassination in Sarajevo by a tiny handful of young Serb
nationals somehow touched off a four-year war that killed 10 million people
outright, plus another 10 million—including 500,000 Americans—in the influenza epidemic that followed.

To this day, the circumstances that sparked that
war are virtually impossible to comprehend. They seem, indeed, to have somehow
acquired a devastating momentum all their own.

Yet the instability of the Balkans back then
pales before the flashpoint that is today’s Middle East. A protest in Syria
turned into a civil war, and then a proxy war. It could easily expand into a
regional and, in the worst case, global, conflict. Looming in the background of
the tense, torturous negotiations yet to come is the reality that despite
everyone’s best wishes, diplomatic failure is a distinct possibility—one that
could ultimately become synonymous with the atomic unthinkable.

(4) In the bottomless turbulence that defines
today’s Middle East, the Americans and Russians so far seem to retain some
shreds of rationality. But given the Peaceful Atom’s half century of
weapons-grade proliferation, we cannot know which nations or marginal groups
might now have atomic devices and what random impulses might prompt their use.

In a profoundly unpredictable world, each of the
more than 400 commercial-sized reactors still operating continues to produce
radioactive materials that could fuel a nuclear weapon.

Each of those reactors is itself a profoundly
vulnerable target. Should the situation in Syria devolve to a wider war, the
likelihood of a freelance atomic “situation” becomes all too probable.

(5) While the world’s attention is focused on
Syria, the global-scale disaster at Fukushima spirals out of control.

The more serious the crisis in Syria, the more it
will divert attention from an existing nuclear disaster.

Millions of tons of heavily contaminated water
continuously flow through the site in central Japan and into the Pacific Ocean.
Millions more accumulate in flimsy tanks already breaking apart, all within the
specter of the next earthquake.

The three melted cores at Fukushima Daiichi have
yet to be found. The common radioactive waste pool near Unit Four is surrounded
by buildings whose foundations are being undermined by the continuous flow of
radioactive water.

Most terrifying, the entire core of Unit Four
remains perched in a damaged fuel pool 100 feet in the air, atop a structure
that’s sinking. Should it crash to the ground, that core could potentially spew
into the ocean and atmosphere more than 20,000 times the radiation released at
Hiroshima.

A sane species would be pouring all its resources
into somehow healing the open apocalyptic wound that still festers at
Fukushima.

Yet we are tied up in Syria. We can be deeply
grateful that the situation there today seems at least slightly less dangerous
than it did yesterday.

But atomic danger lurks without warning in every
facet of this crisis.