I was looking at CPC's temp outlook for upcoming months and there are no blues on the map whatsoever.... then I remembered this..

They're thoughts on M-A-M on left and actual on right. [attachment=201985:temps34.jpg]

[attachment=201986:temps35.jpg]

The only reason I ever use their maps is to identify the potential ENSO state during the winter. Based on the setup of these maps (not the temperature outlook itself, there's so many things wrong there in the last few years I won't even bother start talking about that) I would assume they're going on a weak positive ENSO. We'll see what happens this year as last year we were also looking for an El Nino in 2012-13 which rapidly collapsed in the late summer-early fall.

Oceanic kelvin wave really destroying any cool sst anomalies in the east pacific. Negative iod helping to strengthen westerlies near the dateline. Let the back and forth continue.image.jpg ( 178.15K )
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Currently the 50 MB QBO anomaly is at -6.44 m/s. Now remember, the QBO is the measure of stratospheric winds. Positive stands for westerly winds and negative stands for easterly winds. When the anomaly exceeds 10 m/s, then the QBO enhances stratospheric influence on the troposphere and helps support high latitude blocking. An easterly wind is (negative anomaly) is better for high latitude blocking enhancement as an easterly wind transports warm air from the tropics into the higher latitudes.

Over the past three months, the QBO has trended weaker but still negative in nature, which supports the continuation of weak high latitude blocking. As always, you have to look at the atmospheric system as a chaotic system with many influences. This is just one influence but an important one in the Fall and Winter. Should the QBO trend towards a neutral state, the influence of stratospheric warming at the higher latitudes is far more difficult to translate into the troposphere. However, if the QBO at 50 MB and 30 MB trends back towards -10 m/s, then the potential for warmer stratospheric air from the tropical to move into the polar regions is far greater. This process thus forces a transport of warmer air towards the troposphere and enhances high latitude blocking typically forcing a more negative Arctic Oscillation and potentially a more pronounced west based negative NAO.

The correlation between the AAM and QBO is 0.391 per the ESRL time series web site. Looking back at AAM values for June, we see an increase in the AAM from Phase 3 to 5 in the opening couple weeks of June, shown below.

The Relative AAM tendency for June was nearly off the chart at one point of the month in the positive range, which then resulted in that phase shift from 3 to 5 (and maintenance of the AAM at a weak (but still positive) value):

Looking at the AAM tendency for July/late June above, it looks like we're plummeting into deep negative territory. This has been reflected by the AAM shift to Phases 8-2, and the latter number is where the month of July begins.

Using the AAM/QBO correlation, it may be worth noting that the QBO could back off on its positive motion, although with the latest GEFS forecast showing a less-than-enthusiastic low AAM in coming days, I wouldn't anticipate a sudden drop to neutral values in the QBO. We'll need a solid low AAM burst to put a wrench in the positive QBO.

The good news- It's the fourth of July, not early October. We've got time for the QBO to change. The bad news- a glance over past +QBO events tells me that it is very possible we see a +QBO this winter, as the current +QBO pulse began earlier in the year and has just recently passed the 50mb mark in its attempt to propagate down to the surface.

The U.S. government weather forecaster said on Friday that neutral conditions will last longer than previously expected, reducing the chance that the La Nina or El Nino patterns that play havoc with global weather will materialize this year.

Got creative last night and decided to look up winters that included a +QBO pulse beginning mid-year (like we have now). 500mb, temperature and precipitation anomalies are shown.

After looking at each year individually, the strongest continuity was certainly the below normal temperatures in the northern Plains, along with above normal temperatures in the Southeast. A trend of ridging in the north Pacific was also prevalent.

Joe Bastardi said on a weatherbell video today that he thinks the winter in the eastern half of the nation will start early and pack a punch although he says he has much to look at in regard to what happens from there going forward! He also added that if the PDO spikes warm in the heart of winter, look out!

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"FOR THE WINTER 2015-16.....If the Nino weakens.....LOOK OUT! Are we about to finally turn the corner towards cold/snow????

Got creative last night and decided to look up winters that included a +QBO pulse beginning mid-year (like we have now). 500mb, temperature and precipitation anomalies are shown.

After looking at each year individually, the strongest continuity was certainly the below normal temperatures in the northern Plains, along with above normal temperatures in the Southeast. A trend of ridging in the north Pacific was also prevalent.

That looks like good potential for winter weather in the battle ground there if you can get some storms.

Joe Bastardi said on a weatherbell video today that he thinks the winter in the eastern half of the nation will start early and pack a punch although he says he has much to look at in regard to what happens from there going forward! He also added that if the PDO spikes warm in the heart of winter, look out!

Joe....just like him to say something like that when winters the subject.

Joe Bastardi said on a weatherbell video today that he thinks the winter in the eastern half of the nation will start early and pack a punch although he says he has much to look at in regard to what happens from there going forward! He also added that if the PDO spikes warm in the heart of winter, look out!

In recent developments, the negative PDO has ended. As per the image below and latest PDO values, we are now in a +PDO.

Clearly if this current pattern would have started earlier or later this year we would have seen one of the nastiest winters in YEARS across the east. But no use dwelling....that's not how it worked out. i still think that we'll see this pattern break unfortunately BEFORE winter and the law of averages will play out...but that remains to be seen