Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Statistics
Canada released new data this month about how visitors arrived in Canada, and
it reminds us that as the tourism season winds down and the Yarmouth Ferry operations near a season endit’s time to seek answers to the
unanswered questions, many of which probably should have been answered before
the season began.

We’ve heard
from government that visitor numbers to Nova Scotia are up, and room nights are
doing better. This may be true. But new Statistics Canada data reinforces that
those visits are not coming from the Yarmouth Ferry.

This is not
about whether the Yarmouth Ferry should or should not be funded. As I said in a
blog a few months ago (which you can read here) the ferry is a political decision
with arguments for and against. You either believe it should be funded on a
largely open ended basis or you don’t. I highly doubt people will change their
minds on that.

Based on
Bay Ferries’ own numbers, it appears possible that the contribution taxpayers
will make to the ferry this year will be higher than anticipated because of
lower than expected passenger numbers and a contract which appears to make
taxpayers responsible for most of the costs associated with fewer passengers.

Tourism landings
did trend up in July by 5.8 percent. Year over year however, Statistics Canada
says people arriving directly in the province from elsewhere is basically flat.
Nonetheless, room nights from external sources are what matter to most
operators, and Tourism Nova Scotia issued a release saying that

“Tourism
businesses benefited from a seven per cent increase in non-resident overnight
visitors (up 23,000) this July compared to last, bringing year-to-date
visitation totals to about 1,155,100 visitors, an increase of eight per cent
compared with the same period in 2015.”

It’s difficult
to compare visitors and room nights (which Tourism Nova Scotia counts, and for
which how they are counted changed a few years ago) and what Statistics Canada
counts, which is visitors based on their province of entry.

The Statistics
Canada data is important when considering the impact of the ferry and airports.
Their data looks at how people get to Nova Scotia which is directly related to
the ferry’s success (or not) in bringing people to the province. It’s data
which shows that automobile visits from the United States are down, both year
over year, and in July. Down by a lot.

Statistics Canada datashows that while visitor numbers
in July were up by 5.8 percent in Nova Scotia (a good thing) visits from the
United States by automobile were actually down a whopping 17.7 percent. Visitors
from the United States are up in July according to the data, but the same data
shows those people are not coming on the ferry. Before someone asks, I wondered
whether those arriving by car on a ferry would be considered non-automobile
arrivals by Statistics Canada. They are not. Non-automobile overnight visitors are
almost all travel by air. That means visitors from the United States were up in
July but they flew, possibly impacted by the new cost competitive Westjet
flight from Boston.

It gets
worse. In the year to date numbersautomobile visits are down by 28.8 percent. Travel from other countries
is also down year over year by 6.1 percent.

The totals?
For the first half of 2016 non-resident entries to Nova Scotia are down by one
percent (basically flat). Yes, people may be arriving through New Brunswick, or
Quebec, or fewer people may be buying more rooms. All fine things. Except for
what it means for the ferry. The data shows people are choosing other ways to
get to Nova Scotia. (Keep in mind here too that Bay Ferries reports passenger
loads but it doesn’t break out Nova Scotia resident passengers and others,
while Statistics Canada is looking at arrivals by non-residents)

“Two-thirds
of the people we have spoke to are intending to go to other areas of Nova Scotia,”
said MacKenzie. “They are exploring the whole province so it (the ferry)
doesn’t just benefit Yarmouth and Acadian Shores, its benefiting the whole
province.”

I am happy that Yarmouth and Acadian shore tourism operators are seeing a growth in business. But given the numbers on the ferry are down, its impossible for this growth to be coming from the ferry.What it actually suggests is despite a decline in ferry visitors, marketing efforts by the region are working and drawing people who arrive by air or via New Brunswick.

The ferry
has a lot of issues. I considered taking it on two trips to the US earlier this
year. On one trip the ferry simply hadn’t started yet. On the second, the cost
would have been significantly higher, and the travel time longer, than driving
via New Brunswick. I have heard similar stories from many people who would have
gone but for the cost and time (time would depend on your destination and your
origin). A lower cost however would probably mean a higher subsidy

The
government, and particularly the minister and premier, have a responsibility to
tell Nova Scotians how they will define success for the ferry project, and what
(if any) limits there will be on financial and other support. It’s a basic
question. If success to the government is just having a ferry, regardless of
cost or passenger load, then so be it, they should say so. With that answer
voters can decide for themselves whether they believe it is worth it. It will
also force opposition parties to have a clear position on whether they agree
with the government or not, and if not, what limits they would put on support
for the ferry.