Thursday, February 01, 2018

In 2013, the Astros chose Appel with the No. 1 pick, one selection ahead of Chicago Cubs MVP third baseman Kris Bryant. They signed him to a $6.35 million bonus after his senior year, when he posted a 2.12 ERA, struck out 130 batters and walked just 23 in 106.1 innings. Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated called him “as risk-free a pitcher pick as has ever been made,” while Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow deemed Appel, “the most significant investment the Astros have made in their history in an amateur player,” per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.

Reader Comments and Retorts

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Well, biggest bust (non female anatomy division) is inherently subjective, but one objective way is to compare the #1 pick to the #2 pick. Under that criteria, Steve Chillicote is the biggest bust, never reached the majors vs Reggie Jackson at #2. Kris Bryant could end up better than Jackson, and thus could make Appel a bigger bust by that criteria, but it’s far from certain.

The only other # 1 to not make the majors, prior to Appel, is Brien Taylor, but he’s only 0.4 behind the #2 pick, and 2 ahead of the #3.

If you read "perhaps" as maybe (which is the first synonym listed for perhaps), then it really isn't saying much. Maybe is "a mere possibility". Is it impossible that Appel is the biggest bust? I do not think so...maybe :)

Then, he was sent to Single-A Lancaster, host of—as he learned from teammates—one of the best hitting environments in baseball due to the wind currents. On top that, there was a piggybacking system, which stacked starters, making them pitch every four days.
...

"I go out and pitch, and it's the same thing every time. I can't get an out," Appel says. "Walk. Hit. Walk. Hit. Then I'm out of the game. What just happened? Now it's like I have four days before I get my hopes up again, get excited, build that confidence, not caring what happened in the past. Then the same thing happens again."

Six no. 1 picks compiled negative WAR, so theoretically Appel didn't do the most damage to his team. But as far as never showing any promise as a professional whatsoever, Appel probably is the biggest bust. Taylor and Chilcott were at least pretty decent the year after they were drafted.

Well, biggest bust (non female anatomy division) is inherently subjective, but one objective way is to compare the #1 pick to the #2 pick. Under that criteria, Steve Chillicote is the biggest bust, never reached the majors vs Reggie Jackson at #2. Kris Bryant could end up better than Jackson, and thus could make Appel a bigger bust by that criteria, but it’s far from certain.

The only other # 1 to not make the majors, prior to Appel, is Brien Taylor, but he’s only 0.4 behind the #2 pick, and 2 ahead of the #3.

Does Appel get "bonus" points for also going 8th - but failing to sign - the prior draft? While he slid to the Pirates in 2012, that purely over bonus demands. I'm pretty sure every board had him #1 overall.

Pity for his "busty legend" he didn't actually go #1 in 2012, too.

I think a guy who goes #1 twice but never makes it would clearly be the biggest bust ever, with no real need to debate.

Appel seemed like a guy that had the bust label around his neck pretty darn quickly. Perhaps not the day he was drafted but it wasn't long before drafting him looked like a really bad decision. One I'm glad the Cubs didn't have to make.

Danny Goodwin was a 2 time #1 overall pick, and had negative WAR for his career. Still, he played in parts of 7 MLB seasons, had 150 hits and 13 big league homers. I'd gladly take that career over someone who doesn't make the show.

Appel seemed like a guy that had the bust label around his neck pretty darn quickly. Perhaps not the day he was drafted but it wasn't long before drafting him looked like a really bad decision. One I'm glad the Cubs didn't have to make.

I think part of it was that there was a fairly nice of run of "Best College Pitcher EVAHs!" preceding him in the prior decade... I.e., the 21st century kicked off with Mark Prior - who, injuries aside - at least lived up to his billing for a bit. Then you had guys like David Price, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and of course, Stephen Strasburg in relatively quick succession.

The year prior to 2012, IIRC, was pretty loaded with pitching - with several HS arms and several college arms that were all thought of as legit ace potential guys.

Boras was Appel's agent, right?

I'm fairly sure he tried to milk BOTH the prior year's pitching extravaganza AND the recent spate of "consensus best college pitcher" for all it was worth... problem was, people saw through it - nobody was confusing Appel with Prior or Strasburg, and there were questions he even belonged at the Price/Cole/Verlander level.

Perhaps that's part of his bust legend -- he was a perfectly fine prospect and probably worthy of the consensus #1 pick in both 2012 and 2013. But he was clearly no Prior/Strasburg.

The #2 picks after Goodwin didn't do much. Jay Franklin pitched in three games at age 18 in 1971, the same year he was drafted #2, and never made it back to the major leagues. The #2 pick in 1975 was Mike Lentz, who never reached the majors or even AAA.

The top players in the first round of the 1971 draft were Frank Tanana (57.9 WAR), Jim Rice (47.4), and Rick Rhoden (35.9). Much better players were taken in later rounds, but Rick Cerone (8.1) and Dale Berra (5.4) were the best of a forgettable 1975 first round.

What happened in Philly? ... The performance tanked right after the trade.

Injuries. Early in 2016, he was having shoulder issues, then had an elbow injury and ended up having surgery to remove a bone spur. Then the same (or a different) shoulder problem emerged last year.

And that's also the issue with biggest-bust contender Brien Taylor, of course--the injury he suffered in the fight. I believe I also read somewhere that Chilcott suffered some serious injuries while in the minors.

How many times are "busts" just guys who experience a major injury very early in their careers, rather than later in their careers?

There was the odd 1982 draft. Dunston went #1 and had 11 WAR. #2 was Augie Schmidt, a SS/3B who never made the majors. #3 was Jimmy Jones who made it all the way to 750 IP across 8 seasons despite negative WAR -- in fact -3 pitching WAR but he earned back 1.2 with the bat. #4 was Bryan Oelkers, another pitcher, with 100 IP of negative WAR. Then some talentless kid named Dwight Gooden who, 1.5 years after the draft, put up 5 WAR.

Not busts so much as bad decision-making. And at least those GMs and scouting directors don't have to explain to future generations how Mike Trout could last until #25. Still, I know scouting is tough and HS pitchers often bust, but how is it possible that a kid who debuted at 19 with high heat and one of the nastiest curves in history wasn't an obvious off-the-chart talent at 17.5?

And to add to this, not saying that his holding on and trying a little longer would change his prospects for making it in MLB, but with a Stanford degree, there have got to be some very viable alternatives that a kid drafted out of HS might have.

Wheels pretty much came off for him when he was sent to the phillies organization, although the tires were losing air before that. I suspect a change of scenery might help, after some time off. Sometimes too much money too young can be distracting. Takes away the hunger. But yeah, bullpen may be his salvation

And to add to this, not saying that his holding on and trying a little longer would change his prospects for making it in MLB, but with a Stanford degree, there have got to be some very viable alternatives that a kid drafted out of HS might have.

Wheels pretty much came off for him when he was sent to the phillies organization, although the tires were losing air before that. I suspect a change of scenery might help, after some time off. Sometimes too much money too young can be distracting. Takes away the hunger. But yeah, bullpen may be his salvation

You always hate to do this because who knows what's in Appel's head... But it's entirely possible that he's just not that into baseball. Don't know a whole lot about Appel - but I do understand that his dad is a quite successful lawyer. I believe he's also rather religious.

He would hardly be the first guy who just happened to be born with an arm blessed by the baseball gods, rode it to college, followed it to MLB (well, the draft at least) - and just decided it wasn't going to work out.

That doesn't even mean he didn't put in the work - there's no indication he was lazy or otherwise not open to instruction or otherwise didn't try.

It may just mean that he tried to use the gifts he was born with as well as he could, but never really had the passion for it. It's a "what happened" story to us - and probably a disappointment to the Astros and Phillies (and their fans) - but to him, that right arm was a ticket and he didn't waste the ticket, did what he was supposed to do with it.... but just doesn't have that "this is all I ever wanted to do" aspect to him.

Some guys have that -- clearly, Mark Prior had both the blessed right arm AND the drive... given how long he spent trying to make it back. Some don't.

I imagine I'd feel a little less laissez faire/fare thee well and have a good life if my team had spent a 1/1 pick on him -- but then, I also know from experience that you get a LOT more charitable when you're still celebrating a title :-)

My favourite is still Bill Bene, a #1 pick for the Dodgers (and fifth overall), despite the fact he was never any good anywhere, not even in college.

Bill James had quite the commentary on Bene in one of his post-Abstract Baseball Books, and following a quick Google search I found this thread where I posted that comment in 2012. It's so good I think it deserves a repost.

Bill BENE, Los Angeles
Who is he?

Arguably the worst number one draft pick of all time. Bene, a right-handed pitcher, has never been an effective pitcher anywhere, even as an amateur. In 1988 he had a 5.80 ERA at Cal State, walking 51 men in 50 innings, and almost nobody except the Dodgers had him pegged as anything better than a sixth-round pick. He can throw hard, for about two minutes at a time, and for some incomprehensible reason the Dodgers in '88 puffed out their chest in their arrogant, lovable way and pronounced him a first-round pick.

His records since then are amazing -- not amazing like Nolan Ryan, and not even amazing like Steve Dalkowski. It's just amazing that anybody could be this bad. In 1989 he pitched 14 times, mostly as a starter, and lasted a total of 27 innings. He walked 56 men, finished 0-4 and posted a 10.33 ERA.

Last year he won a game, which was such an event that Baseball America did a story about it. He finished 1-10 with a 6.99 ERA. We're not talking AAA here; that's at Vero Beach. His strikeout/walk ratio was 34-96. That's 34 strikeouts, 96 walks. In his pro career he has walked 12.5 men per nine innings

You guys are all talking about draft era players. Was there some suspect like Ric Reichardt between 1945-1965 that a team gave a huge bonus who didn't pan out and created a huge opportunity cost for the signing team? Reichardt isn't an example because he actually had a career, but he was the first bonus baby that I thought of after Johnny Antonelli, who also had a career.

Bill James had quite the commentary on Bene in one of his post-Abstract Baseball Books, and following a quick Google search I found this thread where I posted that comment in 2012. It's so good I think it deserves a repost.

I'm glad you did - I forgot this Bene was the fake karaoke guy (another IP thread?). His fate:

A 44-year-old former Dodgers pitcher was sentenced Monday to six months in prison and ordered to pay more than $106,000 to the federal government after being convicted of dodging his taxes, U.S. Attorney officials said.

It seemed like Houston under Wade used to try to skip their top pitching prospects (such as they were...) past Lancaster and then let the lesser guys sink or swim there. I know Jordan Lyles jumped straight from full season A ball to AA, and when they traded for Cosart they immediately stuck him in AA as well. I kinda liked that strategy as a way to filter out the 'maybes' from the non-prospects--I was high on Keuchel (not Cy Young high, but I thought he could be a decent back-end starter) mainly because he handled Lancaster well (3.36 ERA in 18 starts), and other guys that succeeded there like Jake Buchanan and Nick Tropeano at least made the majors despite a lack of pedigree. When Luhnow took over he ended that treatment, pretty much all the top prospects had to pass through Lancaster: Folty, McCullers, Hader, Velasquez, Martes, and Musgrove all at least stopped by, and of course Appel. Kinda wonder if they should have made an exception for him, but considering Cosart or Bud Norris(forget which) mouthed off a bit when they finally promoted him out of there (immediately after he registered his first quality start haha, the FO needed that cover), that might have rubbed the rest of the org the wrong way.

Was there some suspect like Ric Reichardt between 1945-1965 that a team gave a huge bonus who didn't pan out and created a huge opportunity cost for the signing team?

A large portion of the bonus babies fit that description- however, in many cases it seems to directly relate with how the bonus baby rules (especially those of the mid-1950s) screwed up player development, so analysis is complicated.

Going back pre-bonus baby, there's always Clint Hartung, who was supposed to be a star pitcher and batter and wound up impressive at neither- it probably depends on how we calculate the value of the $35,000 he ultimately cost the Giants.