Sweet 16 matchups to watch in the NCAA tournament

It’s hard to glean anything from the chaos that took place over the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament. But one thing was clear: more than anything else — seeds, region, conference affiliation, etc. — matchups matter in March.

Syracuse and its 2-3 zone was shot out of the tournament by a very good three-point shooting team in Dayton. Louisville ravenously capitalized on Saint Louis’ turnover problem to advance. And Stanford’s stout interior defense sent home a Kansas team that struggles to shoot from the outside.

As the tournament progresses and teams are more evenly matched, the importance of a team’s matchup will only increase.

Here’s a look at three key matchups that will decide which teams advance and which teams start preparing for next season.

Andrew Harrison v. Louisville’s press

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In a thriller against undefeated Wichita State, Kentucky’s freshman point guard, Andrew Harrison, came up big. Harrison led the Wildcats with 20 points on 6-of-9 shooting. Harrison, a consensus Top-10 recruit, struggled all year running the point in coach John Calipari’s dribble-drive system. He’s averaging 11 points a game on just 37 percent shooting, but his biggest wart has been his inability to take care of the ball. Per kenpom.com, Harrison coughs up the ball on 23.8 percent of the possessions he uses.

Even in the 6-foot-6 freshman’s big performance against the Shockers, Harrison’s turnover issues surfaced. He committed six turnovers in what was a relatively slow-paced game against a team that is below average at causing turnovers.

On Friday, Harrison will lead his team against the team best suited to take advantage of his shakiness when Kentucky meets Louisville. After forcing Saint Louis’ veteran backcourt, Jordair Jett and Mike McCall, into seven turnovers combined, the Cardinals have to be anxious to harass the turnover-prone Harrison for 40 minutes.

When these two teams met back in December, Harrison committed only three turnovers, and Kentucky pulled out a win. Louisville seems to have ratcheted up its defense over the last few weeks, so he’ll be up against a more difficult challenge. But if Harrison can take care of the ball, Kentucky will have a good chance of advancing.

Frank Kaminsky v. Baylor interior athleticism

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Baylor’s frontcourt of Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson and Royce O’Neale proved to be too long and athletic for Creighton, the nation’s top offensive team. Even with Doug McDermott, the Bluejays did not have the personnel to attack the middle of Baylor’s 2-3 zone effectively. McDermott is a brilliant scorer but the majority of his work comes off the ball and he’s not comfortable as a ball handler.

Wisconsin will get its shot at dismantling Baylor’s zone on Thursday night. While the Badgers get a lot of their scoring from deep, much like Creighton, Bo Ryan’s team has Frank Kaminsky. At 7-feet tall, Kaminsky has the height to compete with the Bears on the inside, but he also has the skill to be a real zone buster. The junior has a diverse skillset that includes a soft shooting touch and good passing ability.

If Baylor leaves Kaminsky open on the perimeter, expect too see a lot of this.

Against zone defenses, Ryan has his center flash to the top of key where he becomes a passer. Kaminsky will be in that role, and Baylor will have to respect his shooting ability or he’ll make shots all night like he did against Oregon. But if the Bears give Kaminsky too much attention, he’ll find cutters along the baseline and pick Baylor’s defense apart.

Nik Stauskas v. Tennessee’s three-point defense

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Michigan’s Nik Stauskas is the best three-point shooter left in the NCAA tournament. Tennessee is one of the best teams left in the tournament at defending the three point line. Stauskas is the leader of a Wolverines attack that puts up a ton of threes, and if he’s hitting, Michigan will put up a lot of points. The Big Ten Player of the Year’s game has greatly evolved since last March when he was merely a spot-up shooting. He’s now capable of handling the ball and getting to the rim which makes the prospect of guarding him even tougher.

If Stauskas isn’t able to score efficiently against the Volunteers, Michigan’s offense will stagnate, which it can’t do against a drastically under-seeded Tennessee team that is playing more like a three-seed than an 11-seed. Tennessee is known for their grind-it-out style, which includes tough half-court defense; but Cuonzo Martin’s team is one of the better offensive teams in the field, ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Wolverines will have to score to beat Tennessee, and Stauskas will be the key man for Michigan’s offense.