This webinar presents research on policies that aim to reduce the racial gap in college graduation rates, merit-based admissions to postsecondary institutions, interventions that improve college access for low-income students, and the relationship between college costs and the parental labor supply. The panelists will present their papers in the following order with a time reserved for Q&A at the end.

Probability of the U.S. or World Entering a Recession in 2020Monday, October 7, 2019 5:45 p.m. – 8:00 p.m.Rm 483 Ford House Office Building2nd and D Streets, SWWashington, DC 20515Metro: Federal Center SW Station

Panelists: Dr. Tara Sinclair, Co-director of the Research Program on Forecasting, George Washington UniversityDr. Chad Stone, Chief Economist, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Light refreshments will be served at 5:45 pm, and the seminar begins at 6:00 pm. The seminar is free but please email Mel Sacks at MelSacks@verizon.net for reservations. After panelists have made their presentations, time will be available for Q&A and discussion.

According to the IMF World Economic Outlook global growth is now projected to slow from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 3.3 percent in 2019, before returning to 3.6 percent in 2020. However, possible further disruptions in oil supplies in the Middle East, continued conflicts with Iran, the slowdown in China, uncertainties of Brexit on Britain and the European Union, the economic effects of global warming, or other contingencies may seriously affect growth prospects. In the U.S. a tariff war, especially with China, may help bring about a recession in 2020.

Dr. Chad Stone and Dr. Tara Sinclair will explore the possibilities of recession occurring in the U.S. or internationally in 2020. Please join us for this interesting evening.

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Light refreshments will be served at 5:45 pm, and the seminar begins at 6:00 pm. The seminar is free but please email Mel Sacks at MelSacks@verizon.net for reservations. After panelists have made their presentations, time will be available for Q&A and discussion.

The present administration has made lessening the trade deficit a priority and has imposed tariffs, mainly with China and the European Union, Mexico and Canada if the U.S, trade deficit with those countries has not ameliorated. The target countries have in turn imposed their own tariffs on U.S. goods. The administration has not pursued multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, and some contend this has left trade with the United States isolated in Asia and other regions.

What effects would a trade war have on the U.S. and the global economies, and would any benefits accrue to the administration’s actions is one of the questions the panelists would attempt to answer. Joshua Meltzer and I.M. ‘Mac’ Destler will offer their perspectives and analysis on these issues.

Light refreshments will be served at 5:45 pm, and the seminar begins at 6:00 pm. The seminar is free but please email Jack Ventura at jack.ventura@verizon.net for reservations. After panelists have made their presentations, time will be available for Q & A and discussion.

Light rail transit, a descendant as it were of trolley cars or streetcars going back to the 19th century, took the form it’s known as today in the 1970’s. The mode continues to be introduced and extended in many U.S. cities, and often has the advantage of speed, rights-of-way and greater capacity than buses but less expensive than subways. However, questions have arisen as to user demand and efficiency relative to, say, bus rapid transit in terms of cost and reducing urban traffic congestion.

Our panelists will offer their perspectives on these issues, based on work they or their organizations have done.

Art Guzzetti is a 39 year veteran of public transportation at the local, state and national levels. The American Public Transportation Association, where he now serves, is the trade group representing the public transportation industry in the United States. Among other things, he is responsible for APTA’s extensive policy research agenda, policy analysis and development, transportation information and statistics. Prior to coming to APTA in June 1997, Mr. Guzzetti had 16 years in management at two of the nation’s leading public transportation systems: New Jersey Transit, and Port Authority of Allegheny County, plus two years at the New Jersey Department of Transportation. In short, career focus has been on generating support for public transportation and the benefits it provides to communities and regions.

Mr. Guzzetti has a Political Science degree from Edinboro State University, and a Master of Public Administration Degree from the University of Pittsburgh.

Darren Timothy has served as the Chief Economist for the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) since January 2017. In this capacity, he leads the Department’s efforts to apply economic principles and methods in analyses of policies, programs, projects, and regulations produced by the Department and its operating administrations. Dr. Timothy’s prior experience has included positions in academia and consulting as well as other agencies within USDOT, including the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Transit Administration.

Dr. Timothy holds a B.A. from Brigham Young University and a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, both in Economics

Alice Grossman, as a policy analyst at the Eno Center for Transportation, conducts research in various areas of multimodal transportation. Dr. Grossman has worked extensively on research relating to metropolitan transportation planning and performance measurement, electronic travel diary development, K-12 and higher education in transportation, active transportation safety, and pedestrian infrastructure asset management and accessibility.

Dr. Grossman completed her B.A. at Vassar College in Physics and Astronomy, and her Ph.D. at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Civil Engineering. Dr. Grossman was Eno’s 2017 Thomas J. O’Bryant fellow.

Light refreshments will be served at 5:45 pm, and the seminar begins at 6:00 pm. The seminar is free but please email Jack Ventura at jack.ventura@verizon.net for reservations.

Abstract of talk:

E-commerce sales are soaring. According to the Census Bureau, they are up 16.4% from the previous year, as against 4.5% for total retail sales. Surprisingly, however, the online shopping boom has been accompanied by the creation of hundreds of thousands of new jobs at e-commerce fulfillment centers around the country. Meanwhile, brick-and-mortar retail establishments, rather than cutting back, have been trying to raise the skill level of their employees to differentiate themselves from online.

This seminar will explore the economics of e-commerce and brick-and-mortar retail, focusing on employment, wages, and productivity. It will also deal with the importance of the automation of logistics. What does the continuing shift to e-commerce portend for consumer choice and prices and for the survival and employment of retail stores? Michael Mandel will address these questions.

Dr. Mandel was interviewed on the PBS News Hour on this subject this past year. Besides his position at Progressive Policy Institute, he holds an appointment as senior fellow at Wharton’s Mack Institute for Innovation Management at the University of Pennsylvania, and serves as president and founder of South Mountain Economics LLC, which provides expertise on emerging occupations and emerging industries.

Light refreshments will be served at 5:45 pm, and the seminar begins at 6:00 pm. The seminar is free but reservations are required. Please email Melvyn Sacks at MelSacks@verizon.net for reservations and admittance.

The U.S. has one of the most unequal income distributions in the developed world, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, after taxes and social-welfare policies are taken into account. According to a report released by the World Economic Forum, the U.S. ranks 23rd out of 30 countries for inequality, even as G.D.P. has greatly expanded following the great recession. This index measures the distribution of income and wealth and poverty.

Ms. Elaine Maag and Dr. Greg Leiserson will examine how the structure of U.S. taxes affects inequality. The U.S. Congress just passed a 1.5 trillion-dollar tax cut that many contend went mostly to corporations and the wealthy. How much will these changes in taxes contribute to inequality and what other factors affect inequality?

The Society of Government Economists

The Society of Government Economists' mission is to support the professional development of government economists, and those who are interested in public policy economics, by providing them with research, publication, and professional communication opportunities.