Thoughts about risk, insurance, terrorism, disasters, public policy, and other things that interest me

Friday, October 26, 2012

Presidential Election Prediction

Using the regression methodology of Ray Fair ("The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1978), I estimate a 51.78% Obama vote share in the Obama-Romney race.

The election should be close, but Obama will probably be re-elected (note that Obama won 52.33% of the vote in 2008).