Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on or about March 7th. Credit: SDO/AIA.

SPACE WEATHERNOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2013 Mar 03 2200 UTC

FLARE

0-24 hr

24-48 hr

CLASS M

05 %

05 %

CLASS X

01 %

01 %

Geomagnetic Storms:Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm

Updated at: 2013 Mar 03 2200 UTC

Mid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr

ACTIVE

30 %

20 %

MINOR

10 %

05 %

SEVERE

01 %

01 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr

ACTIVE

15 %

15 %

MINOR

25 %

25 %

SEVERE

40 %

25 %

Sunday, Mar. 3, 2013

What's up in space

Hang the Transit of Venus on your wall! Hubble-quality images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory are now available as metallic posters in the Space Weather Store.

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Something unexpected is happening on the sun. 2013 is supposed to be the year of Solar Max, but solar activity is lower than expected. At least one leading forecaster expects the sun to rebound with a double-peaked maximum later this year. [video] [full story]

BRIGHT COMET PAN-STARRS: Comet Pan-STARRS (C/2011 L4) is now inside the orbit of Mercury, brightening as it plunges toward the sun. Observers in the southern hemisphere report say they can see Pan-STARRS with the unaided eye in the evening sunset sky. Carl Gruber photographed the comet on March 2nd over the city lights of Melbourne, Australia:

Photo details: Canon 50D, 140mm, f4.0, ISO1600, 3.2s exposure

"Despite bad light and smog pollution, the comet's nucleus was clearly visible to the naked eye as well as a small part of the tail," says Gruber. Light curves show the comet is approaching 2nd magnitude, about as bright as the stars of the Big Dipper.

Several important dates are approaching. On March 5th, Comet Pan-STARRS makes its closest approach to Earth (1.09 AU), followed on March 10th by its closest approach to the sun (0.3 AU). As Comet Pan-STARRS passes the sun, solar glare will make it difficult to see even as the nucleus vaporizes and brightens. By March 12th and 13th, the comet will reappear in the sunset skies of the northern hemisphere not far from the crescent Moon; think photo-op! Check the realtime comet gallery for the latest images.

SDO ECLIPSE SEASON BEGINS: Twice every year, around the time of the equinoxes, Earth can pass directly between the Sun and NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), producing a series of beautiful eclipses from the point of view of the spacecraft. SDO's vernal eclipse season began this weekend, producing a partial blackout of the sun:

During the eclipse, which was centered around 0715 UT on March 3rd, Earth covered about half of the sun. Because these eclipses typically last for only minutes each day (maximum=72 minutes), there is still plenty of uninterrupted time for SDO to monitor activity on the sun. The ongoing eclipse season will end in approximately three weeks. Between now and then, stay tuned for some rare blackouts. Aurora alerts:text, voice.

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES: A high-speed solar wind stream hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 28th and March 1st, sparking bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. The sight of bright green lights overhead prompted some onlookers to do unusual things in the snow:

"I can honestly say I've never seen anyone do The Pyramid under the Northern Lights before," says veteran aurora photographer Ronn Murray of Fairbanks, Alaska. "[On March 1st], I headed up to the top of Murphy Dome with this incredibly fun tour group. We had a blast making portraits under the aurora. The clouds would eventually take over, but we made the most of the show while it lasted."

The display is subsiding, but it's not over yet. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 3rd as the solar wind continues to blow. Aurora alerts:text, voice.

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.