.... The fixation of DYS426=13 in R-L51+ may be due to saturation, and this is in favour of what I have said above.For what I have said, I think that to understand the origin of an haplogroup by examining its variance is useless, like also the last paper of Busby et al. has said.

I don't really care about 426=13, I was just showing the general mapping of 393/426 so people can see what that is about. I think it is useful in assigning STR based varieties within haplogroups and deciding what SNP tests to order.

As far variance goes, Busby does NOT say it is useless. In fact, he used STR diversity as the primary tool to show that he thinks L11(S127) is about the same age all over Europe. He is just saying STR diversity is not useful for discerning L11 geographic distribution so we end up with what I call the Busby "blob" of indiscernible STR diversity... but this is for L11 only.

Quote from: Busby et al

.... in which case we would expect higher diversity in the east closer to the origins of agriculture, which is not what we observe.

They use diversity to prove their point, they just calculate it differently and with different data sets.

As far as STR saturation goes, this is what I tried to address in some of the other threads/forums about STR variance and "STR Wars." The "linear" form of variance is calculated using only STRs that Marko Heinila has analyzed (like Busby did, but I think Marko was much more thorough) as being linearly related to age for at least 7000-8000 years. {Marko's results are at http://beforepresent.dyndns.info/misc/loci.xls }So these are STRs that should not be saturated for the timeframe.

I also showed variance for all the STRs (of the first 67) regardless of mutation rate as long as they weren't multi-copy or potential null values. This is for comparison so you can decide for yourself. Ken Nordtvedt would say more STRs are better, but you choose what you like. I don't think STR variance based calculations are precise by any means, just more important that frequency.

One STR, i.e. 426, makes little difference when using long haplotypes and numbers like 36 and 49 STRs.

Quote from: Maliclavelli

Argiedude demonstrated in a map of his you can find on this site, starting from my analyses, that R-L51+ has the highest frequency in Italy and it drops out of North Italy. By your data it wouldn’t seem true, but now I think having carried other proofs in favour of my theory. And the highest frequency were just where Ötzi lived. What a pity that he hasn’t come out R-L51+, but for me it is very good also this G2a4.

My understanding of some of those maps Argiedude used were based on predicting haplogroups based on haplotype STRs. This is precarious. I'm trying to eliminate that source of error by using the SNP results. Unfortunately, sometimes it is not easy to find the total SNP results when testing is done, like it has been extensively for R-M269xU106xP312 people, at multiple testing companies.

I also caution you on using the data I'm show for frequency calculations. Tests available in public FTDNA projects are not necessarily representative and there is clearly testing biases by country, with some countries having much higher testing rates. I think in those cases the best one could do (without academic studies) is to look at the country projects and calculate the frequency by country rather than looking at absolute counts of a single haplogroup across countries.

... More reliable is the aDNA: Ötzi is demonstrating that he was an ancient “Italian”, linked to the people that in his time peopled Italy, Sardinia, Sicily, Spain (who were probably the same “Italians” arrived like agriculturalists by sea 7500YBP)...

I do not think ancient DNA is the holy grail by any means. For all we know Otzi's brother-in-law was R1b of some sort and he was a minority Y haplogroup in his tribe. This will be the problem for a long time to come with ancient DNA. The survey will not be anything close to being representative of the population of the time.

Otzi's DNA clearly does NOT link him to Italic speaking peoples. We don't know what he spoke. Unfortunately he didn't write a diary.

Of course not, but I "Bez (Batti)" that they are R-L51+. On SMGF there are only 15 individuals with DYS426=14, and 10 are these.

Surnames are: Wells, Marshall, Acosta Del Valle, Price (3), Williams, an Anonymous from Iraq, besides these two I put on ySearch. You can see that they are from the periphery of Italy where I have always said was the expansion: Germany, Wales, Scotland, Spain.

2 other haplotypes of the 10 above with DYS426=14:MWGPP (Acosta Del Valle) and EV586 with DYS426=13YTJ7N (Marshall) and see RTR72 (McNulty), 9F95M (Gunter), XB3JM (Morgan).

Do you have the SNP results for these? Would you be interested in recruiting these guys to join the FTDNA ht35 project?

I tried to find SNP results but y9F95M Gunter is a good example. I went to the Gunter surname project and found91712 William King Gunter son of Franklin Gunter Unknown Origin R1b1a2(green) 13 24 15 11 11-14 14 12 12 13 13 29

Sure enough, working backwards kit 91712 is Ysearch 9F95M.

All is well, but the Gunter project admin doesn't have the Y SNP report turned on so we don't know if he ever tested for L23 or L51.

I would include Gunter in the file if we can figure out his L23, L51 status.

Mike, the others of the ten are:Williams: VMHF3Price (3): 4APWB (one has a mutation in DYS464)Wells: VBEWP (but there are other Wells very close to him with DYS426=12!)Anonymous from Iraq (A6K44) isn't certainly an R-L51 but R-L23, even though very interesting for his variance, but who is the closest to him? Martignago (TDM4D), and I don't say where he is from.

I've looked at the variance between R-L11 subclades. I decided to check the maximum GD at 67 as kind of a cross-check. The modal for all of R-M269 pretty much comes out to R-P312 which is WAMH. The reason is just the high number of R-P312 and subclades people in the public DNA projects.

The highest GD to the WAMH over 67 marker for each of the following is:

U152 28L21 26P312* 26U106 26

L23* 38

Their maximums are pretty much lumped together except L23*. I think there really was a good distance of age between L23 and L11.

I've looked at the variance between R-L11 subclades. I decided to check the maximum GD at 67 as kind of a cross-check. The modal for all of R-M269 pretty much comes out to R-P312 which is WAMH. The reason is just the high number of R-P312 and subclades people in the public DNA projects. The highest GD to the WAMH over 67 marker for each of the following is:U152 28L21 26P312* 26U106 26L23* 38Their maximums are pretty much lumped together except L23*. I think there really was a good distance of age between L23 and L11.

Clearly something doesn't fit: U152 cannot get more GD than R-P312 or R-U106. If we don't take in consideration the "mutations around the modal" all the calculation isn't worth.

I've looked at the variance between R-L11 subclades. I decided to check the maximum GD at 67 as kind of a cross-check. The modal for all of R-M269 pretty much comes out to R-P312 which is WAMH. The reason is just the high number of R-P312 and subclades people in the public DNA projects. The highest GD to the WAMH over 67 marker for each of the following is:U152 28L21 26P312* 26U106 26L23* 38Their maximums are pretty much lumped together except L23*. I think there really was a good distance of age between L23 and L11.

Clearly something doesn't fit: U152 cannot get more GD than R-P312 or R-U106. If we don't take in consideration the "mutations around the modal" all the calculation isn't worth.

Notice I said P312* (P312+ U152- L21- SRY2627- etc.)P312* is just another set of lineages rather than a subclade. I don't see any reason why a U152 person couldn't have a greater GD from the modal for all of P312 than P312* people. Perhaps that isn't your point. ???

The modal is not the ancestral value anyway. We don't know that, the modal is just an estimate of the ancestral haplotype.

Notice I said P312* (P312+ U152- L21- SRY2627- etc.)P312* is just another set of lineages rather than a subclade. I don't see any reason why a U152 person couldn't have a greater GD from the modal for all of P312 than P312* people. Perhaps that isn't your point. ???The modal is not the ancestral value anyway. We don't know that, the modal just an estimate of the ancestral haplotype.

This could be true because we can presuppose that the survived haplotypes aren't the descendants of the most ancient ones, but that the most part of them became extinct...then for this reason falls the same principle to calculate the ancientness of a haplogroup by its variance.But I'd add that also the mutations around the modal play a role in this.

Mike, have you noticed the huge amount of M269 (presumably xL11) found only in the area east of Lake Vättern in the Old Norway data? Unless there is an error somewhere or I am reading the pie charts incorrectly, this has to be of major importance, yet no one besides myself has commented on it at all.

Mike, have you noticed the huge amount of M269 (presumably xL11) found only in the area east of Lake Vättern in the Old Norway data? Unless there is an error somewhere or I am reading the pie charts incorrectly, this has to be of major importance, yet no one besides myself has commented on it at all.

I did notice it, but was primarily interested in the mix of the primary subclades. I do need to pay more attention to Lake Vättern, especially since I have match from there.

Lake Vättern is in south central Sweden in Götaland, which is supposed to be the origin site of the Goths. On another thread the commentary centered on the difference between U152 on the west versus the east side of the lake.

These are all approximations, but it looks like the mix of R1b on both sides of the lake are:

The obvious thing has been brought up. U152 didn't make it around or across the lake so this might have been the boundary it hit.

At the same time, L21 is more frequent on the west than east but made it to the east. Perhaps it got there before U152 showed up??? However, L21 didn't make much of a dent on Denmark.

U106xU198 and U198 are both stronger on the east side of the lake, with U198 not making it west. My guess is that U106 came from across the Baltic on east side and edge of the Jutland Peninsula. Perhaps even from the Polish and German coasts via the Island of Gotland. This might have been very early, if the presence of R-M269xL11 east of the lake but not west of it means anything.

Anyway there might have been three main routes of R1b settlement in the Scandinavian Peninsula.

#1: From the east across the Baltic from the German and Polish coasts possibly up the Jutland too, although this R1b group may have come into Jutland from Scandinavia, possibly.... again all early on. U106, U198, M269xL11, but probably with some probably some P312*/Z196* folks. I would think SRY2627 would with these guys to some degree but maybe they were later.

#2: Slightly behind behind group 1, group 2 was sweeping from the English Channel/Atlantic through the North Sea entering from the west. Apparently Denmark was already occupied. Group 2 would have been laden with L21, but also some P312* people.

#3: After groups 1 and 2, group 3 comes directly from the Rhine to the Jutland and then across the straights into the Scandinavian Peninsula where they stop because of the prior occupants. Group 3 is primarily U152, but may have a few drag-alongs.

Mike, have you noticed the huge amount of M269 (presumably xL11) found only in the area east of Lake Vättern in the Old Norway data? Unless there is an error somewhere or I am reading the pie charts incorrectly, this has to be of major importance, yet no one besides myself has commented on it at all.

I did notice it, but was primarily interested in the mix of the primary subclades. I do need to pay more attention to Lake Vättern, especially since I have match from there.

Lake Vättern is in south central Sweden in Götaland, which is supposed to be the origin site of the Goths. On another thread the commentary centered on the difference between U152 on the west versus the east side of the lake.

These are all approximations, but it looks like the mix of R1b on both sides of the lake are:

The obvious thing has been brought up. U152 didn't make it around or across the lake so this might have been the boundary it hit.

At the same time, L21 is more frequent on the west than east but made it to the east. Perhaps it got there before U152 showed up??? However, L21 didn't make much of a dent on Denmark.

U106xU198 and U198 are both stronger on the east side of the lake, with U198 not making it west. My guess is that U106 came from across the Baltic on east side and edge of the Jutland Peninsula. Perhaps even from the Polish and German coasts via the Island of Gotland. This might have been very early, if the presence of R-M269xL11 east of the lake but not west of it means anything.

Anyway there might have been three main routes of R1b settlement in the Scandinavian Peninsula.

#1: From the east across the Baltic from the German and Polish coasts possibly up the Jutland too, although this R1b group may have come into Jutland from Scandinavia, possibly.... again all early on. U106, U198, M269xL11, but probably with some probably some P312*/Z196* folks. I would think SRY2627 would with these guys to some degree but maybe they were later.

#2: Slightly behind behind group 1, group 2 was sweeping from the English Channel/Atlantic through the North Sea entering from the west. Apparently Denmark was already occupied. Group 2 would have been laden with L21, but also some P312* people.

#3: After groups 1 and 2, group 3 comes directly from the Rhine to the Jutland and then across the straights into the Scandinavian Peninsula where they stop because of the prior occupants. Group 3 is primarily U152, but may have a few drag-alongs.

Just speculating...

Does anyone know anywhere else in Europe with such an enormous amount of M269(xL11)? 19% seems huge to me, especially as L11* seems to be fairly rare everywhere in Europe. I am also astounded that there is no M269(xL11) on the west side of the lake. Is there any explanation for this other than a very early arrival of R1b in the area, which for some reason didn't spread to the other side?

Mike, have you noticed the huge amount of M269 (presumably xL11) found only in the area east of Lake Vättern in the Old Norway data? Unless there is an error somewhere or I am reading the pie charts incorrectly, this has to be of major importance, yet no one besides myself has commented on it at all.

I did notice it, but was primarily interested in the mix of the primary subclades. I do need to pay more attention to Lake Vättern, especially since I have match from there.

Lake Vättern is in south central Sweden in Götaland, which is supposed to be the origin site of the Goths. On another thread the commentary centered on the difference between U152 on the west versus the east side of the lake.

These are all approximations, but it looks like the mix of R1b on both sides of the lake are:

The obvious thing has been brought up. U152 didn't make it around or across the lake so this might have been the boundary it hit.

At the same time, L21 is more frequent on the west than east but made it to the east. Perhaps it got there before U152 showed up??? However, L21 didn't make much of a dent on Denmark.

U106xU198 and U198 are both stronger on the east side of the lake, with U198 not making it west. My guess is that U106 came from across the Baltic on east side and edge of the Jutland Peninsula. Perhaps even from the Polish and German coasts via the Island of Gotland. This might have been very early, if the presence of R-M269xL11 east of the lake but not west of it means anything.

Anyway there might have been three main routes of R1b settlement in the Scandinavian Peninsula.

#1: From the east across the Baltic from the German and Polish coasts possibly up the Jutland too, although this R1b group may have come into Jutland from Scandinavia, possibly.... again all early on. U106, U198, M269xL11, but probably with some probably some P312*/Z196* folks. I would think SRY2627 would with these guys to some degree but maybe they were later.

#2: Slightly behind behind group 1, group 2 was sweeping from the English Channel/Atlantic through the North Sea entering from the west. Apparently Denmark was already occupied. Group 2 would have been laden with L21, but also some P312* people.

#3: After groups 1 and 2, group 3 comes directly from the Rhine to the Jutland and then across the straights into the Scandinavian Peninsula where they stop because of the prior occupants. Group 3 is primarily U152, but may have a few drag-alongs.

Just speculating...

Does anyone know anywhere else in Europe with such an enormous amount of M269(xL11)? 19% seems huge to me, especially as L11* seems to be fairly rare everywhere in Europe. I am also astounded that there is no M269(xL11) on the west side of the lake. Is there any explanation for this other than a very early arrival of R1b in the area, which for some reason didn't spread to the other side?

I don't know how large the sample was so I wouldn't get too worked up on M269xL11 just yet.

This differs from what most TMRCA estimators have come up with but I do find higher variance with P312 than U106 so it is possible that pre-U106 L11* and M269xL11 moved further into Europe before U106 arose, in contrast to P312.

L23xL11 is found mostly in the Near East, Anatolia and the Caucasus, according to our FTDNA projects.M269xL23 is found mostly in the Near East and in Jewish populations even if their MDKA's are not from the Near East.

I think there is a caveat that some of the Jewish populations could have come very late in disaporas. Is there any history of this for SE Sweden?

In the “SWEDEN PROJECT - Sverigeprojektet - Y-DNA Classic Chart”no one has DYS426=11, then I think that Sweden hasn’t R1b1a2*, but they all are some subclade of it. Only one has DYS426=13 and is R-L51*. The other with 13 is R-P312*.

As I've noted before, there is not a lot of difference in the STR diversity across R-L11*, U106 and P312 and even L51*. This was the point of the Busby study or what I call the Busby blob.

However, that changes back up the phylogenetic ladder, with R-L23xL51. STR variance increases significantly so the logic that Busby uses to assert there is a large L11*(S127*) "eastern" clade is applicable to L23xL51 or L23xL11. This looks more like a diverse paragroup.

It is this therefore important to understand R-L23xL51 when looking for the migration/expansion clines of R-M269 in Eurasia.