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I had estimated some time back that Apple would launch with "well more than 1M iPhones, probably closer to 2M." But 3M iPhones at launch sounds like a very reasonable figure.

There will never again be a launch date for the iPhone. They have to make the most out of it. Apple is a WAY smarter company now than they were some years ago when they used to launch with almost no inventory. They've learned those lessons the hard way. I'm sure they have been doing everything humanly possible to try and make sure they can sell absolutely as many iPhones as the can during this one time sales window. They'll never again have the opportunity to sell so many at one time. They can't waste that.

If you want an iPhone, I wouldn't worry too much. Apple wants you to have one as soon as possible.

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"They'll never again have the opportunity to sell so many at one time. They can't waste that."

i never thought of it that way. very true, whether or not the quote is true or not, limiting quantities as a marketing plan never made sense to me....it's way to risky on a first attempt.(their first phone)

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Think of it this way... What will look better for Apple, thousands of disappointed people leaving their stores with no iPhone because they ran out at 10:01am or thousands of people leaving their stores with a big smile on their faces and their shiny new toy?

I think they're not only stocking up for launch day but also the weekend and week(s) after launch day. Some people might be on the fence still about the iPhone and may be persuaded once the reviews start hitting.

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I think they're not only stocking up for launch day but also the weekend and week(s) after launch day. Some people might be on the fence still about the iPhone and may be persuaded once the reviews start hitting.

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i remember reading a theory that the factories were ready to work on those specs before the fcc approval. hardware production is a different world for me.....but i know software can be pumped out fairly fast.

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Think of it this way... What will look better for Apple, thousands of disappointed people leaving their stores with no iPhone because they ran out at 10:01am or thousands of people leaving their stores with a big smile on their faces and their shiny new toy?

I think they're not only stocking up for launch day but also the weekend and week(s) after launch day. Some people might be on the fence still about the iPhone and may be persuaded once the reviews start hitting.

I agree. It is not only important to feed the impulse buyers, the first wave, but also the next waves to follow. People will start to see these things and will want to have one. The key to Apple's success, as you noted, will not only be to match up to initial demand but also to be ready and have the next iPhones ready for the following week, preferably.

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I'd expect that half of these would be located at the distribution point in China for all the online orders. Another big bulk would be at Apple national distribution centers. Another chunk at ATT's distribution centers. Then you get down to the individual store level.

Once you start spreading the number out through the entire distribution channel it's not as many as you might think.

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I'd expect that half of these would be located at the distribution point in China for all the online orders. Another big bulk would be at Apple national distribution centers. Another chunk at ATT's distribution centers. Then you get down to the individual store level.

Once you start spreading the number out through the entire distribution channel it's not as many as you might think.

Exactly, I bet you anything they have some in warehouses. What about people who order online? They'll be getting them from Apple's warehouse inventory. The amount of iPhones being shipped to AT&T stores and Apple stores won't be anywhere near the 3,000,000 (supposed) that they have altogether. They'll ship a fraction of that for the first day sales, and when they start to get low, they'll ship more from their inventory.

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After searching cingular on google maps and coming up with 29,890 results. I then divided 3,000,000 by 29,890 and got around 100. And after calling the cingular/AT&T stores around here, only one said they would be carrying it. So taking that into perspective, I believe that there will be plenty to go around At least around here lol