Viewpoint: What West must do in Ukraine

By Anatol LievenProfessor, Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service in Qatar

It wouldd be folly for the West to arm Ukraine, argues Prof Anatol
Lieven in this personal viewpoint piece, but it must take a tough
diplomatic line.

If the latest ceasefire in eastern Ukraine breaks down, then
there will be increased pressure on President Barack Obama by hawks in
Washington - Democrat as well as Republican - to provide arms to
Ukraine, and on European leaders to acquiesce in this.
In the view of a range of analysts and former officials on
both sides of the Atlantic, this seems a singularly ill-thought out
strategy. Lesson from history
More importantly, the advocates of arming Ukraine do not
appear either to have sufficiently analysed the actual balance of forces
on the ground, or to have studied a key lesson from recent history:
namely, what happened to Georgia when its government launched an
offensive against separatist rebels and their Russian backers in South
Ossetia in August 2008.
After brief initial gains, the Georgian army was crushed by new Russian forces.
This apparently lunatic Georgian move is only comprehensible
if President Mikheil Saakashvili believed that the USA would intervene
militarily to prevent Georgia's defeat.
Of course it did not, nor had any such promise ever been made by the Bush administration.
But the Georgians could have been forgiven for not realising
that, given that they had received weapons, extravagant political
support, and a promise of future Nato membership from Washington.

What happened in Georgia?

A Russian armoured troop carrier passes a house set on fire by South Ossetian militia in August 2008

In August 2008, tensions between Georgia and Russia escalated
into a full-blown military conflict after Georgia tried to retake South
Ossetia by force after a series of lower-level clashes with
Russian-backed rebels.

Russia launched an overwhelming counter-attack, ejecting
Georgian troops from both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and subsequently
recognising the two breakaway regions as independent states.

Against the background of this history, it cannot be emphasised
too strongly that, for the foreseeable future, however many weapons the
Ukrainian army receives from the USA, if it gets into an open fight
with the Russian army, it is likely to lose, and lose catastrophically.

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Russia's leaders might want to
reflect on the fact that by the same token, for the first time in
history Russia has been under no real threat of attack from the West”

So far, very limited numbers of
lightly disguised Russian troops have been enough to bring to a
standstill the entire fighting strength of the Ukrainian army - last
autumn, the Nato estimate was that a mere 3,000 Russian soldiers were
present in the Donbas.

With massive US arms supplies, the Ukrainian army might well
be able to launch an initially successful offensive against these forces
and their local separatist allies. But what then?
All the evidence suggests that the Russian government simply
cannot afford the humiliation of a Ukrainian military victory. In other
words, as in August 2008 in Georgia, Moscow would respond with greatly
increased military force.
In the highly unlikely event that the USA then sent its own
troops to help Ukraine - which has already been repeatedly ruled out -
we would be in a European war between nuclear powers. If it did not, the
Ukrainian army would risk the high probability of defeat, and if so,
the USA and Nato would be severely humiliated. Territory struggle
In August 2008, after smashing the Georgian army, Russia
briefly occupied parts of Georgia proper - beyond the borders of the
separatist territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia - and then
withdrew.
Since neither Russia nor the separatists had any historical
or ethnic claim on these strategically worthless Georgian territories,
there was no reason for them to stay.
Russian attitudes to eastern and southern Ukraine are very
different. If the Russian army ever marches into Kharkov and
Dnipropetrovsk, they are very likely to stay.

oad Flash Player nows reports on the moment Ukrainian prisoners of war were released

Ukraine can survive without Donetsk, Lugansk and the Crimea.
Indeed, it could be seen as a stronger and more homogenous state without
them, as the election of President Petro Poroshenko demonstrated.
The loss of a third of the country would be a very different matter.
The partition of Ukraine would indeed mark a return to the
Cold War, implying vastly increased European military spending, and
colossally increased aid to Ukraine intended to prepare the country for
early membership of the European Union - something for which the EU is
utterly unprepared.
The duty of Western leaders therefore is to try to make sure that the present ceasefire works.
Despite the battle for Debaltseve, there is some chance that
it may work - or at least, a better chance than that of previous
attempts.
This is above all because it includes a critical element
missing from those attempts: a political solution tied to a specific
timetable, and one which allows all the main parties to the conflict to
achieve their most important goal (with the possible exception of the
separatist leadership in the Donbas).
Concurrently with the withdrawal of heavy weapons, dialogue
is to begin on holding local elections in the rebel territories, in
accordance with the Ukrainian law on provisional autonomy for the
region. Reopen economic ties
The Ukrainian parliament has to pass a resolution on this within 30 days of the ceasefire.

Continue reading the main story

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For the ceasefire to hold and a
political solution to be reached, the governments of France and Germany
will have to show an unwonted degree of resolve and toughness over the
next year”

By the end of 2015, Ukraine is
to regain full control of its borders in the east; but also by the end
of 2015, a new Ukrainian federal constitution has to be adopted
incorporating special autonomous status for the Donbas.

In the meantime, the government in Kiev will reopen economic
ties with the Donbas and resume paying official salaries in the region -
thereby helping in the process of reintegrating it into Ukraine.
For Kiev and Western governments, this agreement secures
their most important goal of preserving the sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Ukraine, minus Crimea, with a central government which
preserves the ability to conduct desperately needed reforms.
This is a goal which could otherwise only be achieved through
victorious war - and whatever hawks in the USA may think, any
full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia will almost certainly result
not in Ukrainian victory, but in a crushing Ukrainian defeat and the
further dismemberment of the country.
Moreover, trying to turn Ukraine into a country capable of
planning such a war would require a degree of authoritarian nationalism
which would move Ukraine not closer to the European Union, but even
further away from it.

For Russia, this deal preserves the Donbas as a distinct
autonomous area within Ukraine. A federal constitution would also help
guarantee the position of Russian-speaking areas of the country against
any move to forced ukrainianisation from Kiev.
From Moscow's point of view, this would also make it much
more difficult to move Ukraine into the West's military camp without a
strong consensus behind this in Ukrainian society - a consensus which
was present in central European countries during their move to join
Nato, but which has never existed in Ukraine.
This is the main sticking point as far as hardliners in both
Ukraine and the US are concerned: that the present deal will make
Ukraine's membership in Nato and the EU impossible. 'Long and painful changes'
In actual fact, however, these are non-issues. By repeatedly
stating that under no circumstances will Nato troops be sent to defend
Ukraine, Nato seems to have rendered the idea of Ukrainian membership an
unlikely prospect.
As for EU membership, it's unlikely any West European leader
has ever considered this as more than the remotest of prospects, decades
in the future and dependent on a whole series of extremely long and
painful changes.
This is a decision therefore which would in all circumstances have to be left to a future generation.
Moreover, given the economic reality of Ukrainian economic
dependence on Russia, salvaging Ukraine's collapsing economy can only be
done in co-operation with Russia, not against her.
Unless, that is, the EU is prepared to demand from West
European populations enormous sacrifices for the sake of helping
Ukraine. Anyone who believes that is likely should have a brief
conversation with a Greek.

James Reynolds reports from Debaltseve, "a town almost too dangerous to live in"

For the ceasefire to hold and a political solution to be
reached, the governments of France and Germany will have to show an
unwonted degree of resolve and toughness over the next year.
On the one hand, they will have to make clear to Moscow that
the relaxations of sanctions against Russia will only come as a result
of clear and consistent pressure on the Donbas rebels to abide by the
terms of the ceasefire and to pursue autonomy within Ukraine, and not
independence.
On the other hand, they will need to make clear to the
Ukrainian government and to hardliners in Washington that significant EU
aid to Ukraine, and an eventual path to possible EU membership, both
depend on Kiev honouring the promise of real autonomy for the Donbas.
The present ceasefire and the associated political process
are not perfect, but they present the best chance so far of ending this
conflict, preserving by far the greater part of Ukraine as a unitary
state, and avoiding an escalation of the war that would most probably be
very bad for Russia and the West, and absolutely disastrous for
Ukraine.Anatol Lieven is a professor at Georgetown
University in Qatar and author among other books of Ukraine and Russia: A
Fraternal Rivalry.

The Christian Association of Nigeria(CAN) who was accused to
have been bribed by the President of Nigeria denied claims that the association
got the said sum of N7billion from the
Nigerian Presidency to support the ruling People’s Democratic Party(PDP) for
thecountry’s forthcoming general
elections slated for March 28, 2015.

The association’s General Secretary, Musa Asake, CAN said, in
a statement, “Our attention has been drawn to a report credited to one Musa
Dikwa alleging that the leadership of CAN was given N7 billion by President
Goodluck Jonathan to campaign for his re-elections.

“Ordinarily, we would have ignored this baseless and
worthless allegation but for the vulnerable public which believes in anything,
no matter how incredible the source could be easily especially in this era of
politics.

“For the avoidance of doubt, CAN has no knowledge of any
N7billion transaction as alleged by Musa Dikwa who claims to be the Executive
Director of a non-existent group, Voice of Northern Christian Movement. CAN is
not a political party, let alone getting involved in partisan politics.
Christians who are members of CAN belong to different political parties. It is
therefore surprising to hear that CAN is campaigning for one candidate.

Revered men of God including Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor,CAN
President, Bishop David Oyedepo of Winners Chapel and Pastor Bosun
Emmanuel(Secretary-General of National Christian Elders Forum) are too upright
to be linked with such deal.

CAN is not surprised to see Musa Dikwa doing a yeoman’s job
the next day through his allegations. This is the hands of Esau but the voice
of Jacob. The allegation of Dikwa is masterminded by those who were not happy
with our recent press statement in which we denounced the endorsement of the
presidential candidate of APC, General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) by a group of
people using the name of different Christian organizations to perpetrate fraud.

We insist that Buhari has fallen into wrong hands because
his endorsement for the March 28 general election by Northern Christian Leaders
Eagle-Eye Forum led by Aminchi Habu is fraudulent.

The allegation is the height of mischief and desperation.

We are Christians and our candidate is Jesus
Christ. So long as we believe that the church is under threat, we will speak
for Jesus
Christ and maintain the Wake Up Call to the Church.

One action that exposes a politician's intention is public pilgrimage to Jerusalem otherwise called political pilgrimage.

Pilgrimage to the Holy Land of Jerusalem in Israel came into prominence and significance when Empress Helena visited Jerusalem in 326 .

Helena(c250-330) who was abandoned by her husband in 292 for political reasons, rose to great influence when her son Constantine became Emperor of Rome in 306.She then became a devoted protectress of the christian church. It was during this visit that she founded the basilicas on the mount of Olives and at Bethlehem.

A pilgrimage is a journey to a shrine or sacred place as an act of religious devotion or obligation. It is also made sometimes to fulfill a vow. In earlier times a pilgrim would chant the songs of ascent or gradual palms(Psalms 120-134) as they approached Jerusalem. These psalms embody the important issues of protection, forgiveness, sin, help, pride, despair and wisdom.

Christian tourists to Bethlehem were expected to reach a record 2 million
in 2013, up sharply from the 1.18 million recorded in 2012, the Israeli
Tourism Ministry said.

President Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria recognized this when he visited Jerusalem four months before elections in Nigeria, where he was expected to seek reelections. Though he was at the Walling Wall with prominent Christian Leaders like Bishop David O. Oyedepo of the Living Faith Church Worldwide and Pastor Oritshejafor, President of Christian Association of Nigeria(CAN) to pray, his prayer outline was not published as that of President Obama when he was in Jerusalem.

President Goodluck A.Jonathan of Nigeria @ the Wailing in Jerusalem

Its fashionable for christian politicians to visit Israel before elections.So, many Nigerian politicians have been trooping to the Holy Land too. President Barak Obama of the U.S. also fulfilled this ritual before he was elected President in his first term.The road to the White House was daunting one.

Donald Trump

About a year after Obama got into office,Donald J. Trump, a New York Times Bestseller said concerning him.
"Obama will have to be a great president because we're in serious trouble as a country.It hasn't been this way since 1929. So he doesn't have much choice-he will simply have to be great, because he has very good chance of being.

"What he has done is amazing. The fact that he accomplished what he has-in one year and against great odds- is truly phenomenal . If someone had asked me if a black man or woman could become president, I would have said yes, but not yet. Barak Obama proved that determination combined with opportunity and intelligence can make things happen-and in an exceptional way".

Donald Trump's belief is tenable. I also believe that the opportunity that a 'pilgrimage' offers is the unseen but powerful force behind his exceptional victory. In it he partnered with the divine. He was years ahead of the times because he exposed himself to the power of wisdom of the ages that has been, persisting and are yet to come A truth that should guide his thoughts and actions.

Take a look at his prayer at the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem.

The Israeli Press got a piece of paper where Obama scribbled his prayers.Wow! How well orchestrated it was printed in the press.

This is the prayer.
" Lord- protect my family and me,forgive me my sins, and help me guide against pride and despair.Give me the wisdom to do what is right and just.And make me an instrument of your will".

He said the CAN got the said money (N7bn) on January 26, 2015 and
disbursed N3m to each State Chairmen of the CAN across the country.

More facts appear to be emerging on the allegation by Rivers State
Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, that President Goodluck Jonathan gave pastors
across the country N6bn to vote against the Presidential candidate of
the All Progressives Congress, Maj-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), in the
presidential election.
A Borno-based Pastor, Kallamu Musa-Dikwa, said on Thursday that the
money that was given to pastors by the President was actually N7bn and
not N6bn as alleged by Amaechi, who doubles as the Director-General of
the APC Presidential Campaign Organisation.
Amaechi had alleged that unnamed leaders of the Peoples Democratic
Party paid N6bn to Christian clerics to campaign against Buhari and the
APC.
The governor’s allegation caused a stir among the Christian clerics,
with the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria and the Northern State
Christian Elders Forum asking Amaechi to name the church leaders, who
collected the huge bribe.
But Musa-Dikwa, who is the Executive Director of the Voice of
Northern Christian Movement, told journalists in Kaduna on Thursday that
the said money was channelled through the Christian Association of
Nigeria.
He said the CAN got the said money (N7bn) on January 26, 2015 and
disbursed N3m to each State Chairmen of the CAN across the country.
Musa-Dikwa, who was an Associate Pastor with the E. Y. N. Church,
Farm Centre, Dikwa Road, Maiduguri, Borno State, under Rev. Emmanuel
Kwajihe between 2002 and 2004, said the CAN had started threatening
Christians in the state (Borno) that they must re-elect Jonathan in the
rescheduled election.
He said, “It was N7bn that was given to the CAN leadership by
President Goodluck Jonathan. They (CAN) later disbursed N3m to the State
Chairmen of the CAN.
“The money was handed over to the CAN Leadership on 26th January, 2015.”
“Actually, President Jonathan is using CAN President, and it was the
CAN President who collected the monies and shared N3m to the CAN
executives in each state.
“And some Pentecostal Bishops also collected their share. Actually,
the money is not N6bn, it is N7bn. This is what I know. One of the CAN
officials from Abuja told me that they have collected the money. The
corruption in CAN is terrible. They are corrupting the body of Christ
because of money.
“They are now threatening Christians in Borno State that they will
deal with anybody, who refuses to vote for Jonathan. And the CAN
officials are now campaigning that if Buhari emerges President, he will
Islamise Nigeria; and that Osinbajo collected monies from Islamic world;
and that the same Osinbajo will resign soon after Buhari wins to give
way for Tinubu to emerge Vice President.”
Musa-Dikwa named some high-profile clerics, who had benefitted from
the controversial largesse to actualise the re-election bid of Jonathan.

By Ben Agande, Abuja.
President Goodluck Jonathan has called on christian in the country to use
the period of Lent to pray for a successful and peaceful election.
In a message to christians to mark the Lenten period during which christian
fast for 40 days, President Jonathan urged them to imbibe the virtues of lent.
A statement by the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity,
Dr Reuben Abati quoted the president as calling on all “political leaders in
the country, Christians and non-Christians alike, to rededicate themselves to
the commitment they have made to peaceful, non-violent campaigns and elections,
and do their utmost best to ensure that their supporters across the country
uphold that commitment”.
The statement reads in part: “As they undergo the rites of the 40-day Lenten
season which runs from today, Ash Wednesday, to Easter Sunday, with constant
prayers, penitence, fasting and self-denial, President Jonathan urges
Christians in Nigeria to pray fervently for peaceful, violence-free and
successful general elections in the country on March 28 and April 11, 2015.
“The President also seizes the opportunity of the commencement of Lent to
call on all political leaders in the country, Christians and non-Christians
alike, to rededicate themselves to the commitment they have made to peaceful,
non-violent campaigns and elections, and do their utmost best to ensure that
their supporters across the country uphold that commitment.
“In the spirit of that commitment, President Jonathan further urges all
those seeking political office in the coming elections to eschew hate speech,
incitement to violence, divisiveness and the malicious denigration of
opponents.
“He urges all political parties in the country to join the federal
government in giving the fullest possible support and cooperation to INEC to
ensure that it delivers free, fair and credible elections.
“As they observe Lent, President Jonathan urges the Christian community to
reflect more on all the ideals of human existence taught by Jesus Christ during
his ministry on earth.
“He calls on Christians to make those ideals, including piety, love for
others, tolerance, humility, selfless service to others, honesty, fairness,
justice and equity more manifest in their daily lives.
“President Jonathan prays that God Almighty will answer the prayers of all
Nigerians and bless the country with successful elections, continued unity and
further progress”.
NEWS
Do you have a memorable lent experience to share?

In many ways, today is one of the
strangest days of the year. Everywhere—at work, the grocery store, shopping, exercising—we’ll
see all kinds of people walking around with dark smudges on their foreheads.

Now whether or not their own church
participates in this ritual, most Christians will know that the smudge is the
sign of the cross, and that today is Ash Wednesday, the beginning of the season
of Lent.

To the unbelieving world, Ash
Wednesday is at best quaint (it’s sort of cool to have traditions, you know).
At worst, it’s somewhere between bizarre and even anti-social. After all, to a
culture committed to the pursuit of self-fulfillment and feeling good about
oneself, this whole fasting and self-sacrifice stuff is an existential smack in
the face.

Think of how these words contrast
with our contemporary illusions of autonomy and self-determination: I am not my
own. And I will die one day. And so will you. As the minister tells us when he
rubs the ashes on our foreheads, “remember thou art dust and to dust thou shalt
return.”

And here’s the bolder statement
still, a way-more-weird and counter-cultural claim—We are rotten to the core.
We are sinners. So much so that God became a man and died on a cross in our
place. He loved us that much! And then, get this: He came back to life. His
body wasn’t eaten by worms in a tomb. He was resurrected from the dead.

What happened on that Resurrection
Day, which we’ll commemorate 40 days from now, is the most important event in
the history of the world. As Russell Moore has said, “Christians from all over
the world, despite all this science and all this progress and all this
technology, [still confess] what the earliest believers in the catacombs of
Rome cried out: ‘Christ is risen indeed.’”

We confess it because what it says
about God, the universe, and us is TRUE. On Ash Wednesday and during the season
of fasting, prayer, and almsgiving called Lent, we redouble our efforts to heed
Jesus’ call to pick up our crosses and follow him. We meditate and
remember with Paul that we have been crucified with Christ; it is no longer we
who live, but Christ who lives in us.

Crucified with Christ! Our hopes,
desires, politics, intellect, and yes, even our sexuality—crucified with
Christ. What a thing to say! Jesus, who redeemed us by His blood, lays claim to
all of these things.

This is not the God of what
sociologist Christian Smith has dubbed “moralistic therapeutic deism,” a god
who demands nothing more than that people take it easy on themselves and be
nice and fair to one another.

This is a God who says the two
greatest commandments are to love Him with all of our hearts, souls, minds, and
strength, and to love our neighbors as ourselves. And as Jesus said, to love
Him is to obey Him (talk about counter cultural!) and to believe in the One He
has sent. To love our neighbors, we preach the Good News of Jesus’ death and
resurrection and His triumph over sin and death. We feed the hungry, clothe the
naked, visit the prisoner, take care of the widow and orphans.

Friend, what could be more
authentic, more relevant, than to conform our lives to Jesus, who is the Way
the Truth and the Life? Jesus did not and will not conform Himself to the
culture. Why would we? How dare we urge others to? As Paul says, we were called
to freedom in Christ, which is a freedom from conformity and from the desires
of the flesh and a freedom to serve one another in love, joy peace, patience,
kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness, and self-control (Galatians 5).

Now that’s a lot to swallow, which
is one reason that for nearly two millennia, Christians have taken this long
season of Lent as an opportunity to repent of our conformity to the world, draw
near to Jesus, and prepare ourselves to celebrate the day that changed the
universe.

About Me

Ambassador T. Brikins is a Writer Blogger, Mass Communications Consultant and Inforpreneur having experiences in the National News Media, Oil and Gas, Administration, University and the Church of Christ..
He is C.E.O. @ New Direction Communications..
He is an ordained Minister and heavily imparted by Dr. David Oyedepo, Pastor E.A.Adeboye, Rev.Roselyn Oduyemi, Kenneth Copeland,Dr. D.Yongi Cho, Apostle Alex Bamgbola, Kenneth E. Hagin, Apostle G. Oduyemi, Archbishop Benson Idahosa, T.L. Osborn,Dr. E.W. Kenyon , Oral Roberts and many more.
Ambassador T. Brikins runs with the visions of Isaiah 11:9; Matthew 23:23 and 11 Corinthians 5:16-21 working with the Lord for their practical expressions in every area of life. .
He lives in Lagos, Nigeria.
Twitter:@Brikins_tuoyo
Email:weightiermatter@gmail.com
Phone:+234-8023131300