5 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication FINANCIAL MARKET FISCAL POLICY AND BUDGET According to estimates from the Polish Ministry of Finance for the fi rst half of 2014, Poland s defi cit stood at PLN 25.4bn. At the end of May 2014, the Polish national debt amounted to more than PLN 744bn, down by 11% compared with the end of In January 2014 the Polish President Bronisław Komorowski signed the 2014 Budget Act projecting the country s annual defi cit at below PLN 47.6bn, infl ation at 2.4% and 2.5% GDP growth. STOCK EXCHANGE In H1 2014, only sixteen companies made their debut on the NewConnect market and the main market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), which made the WSE fourth in the European ranking in terms of IPOs. Despite the number of IPOs in H being nearly twice as low as that in H1 2013, the total volumes of initial public offerings in both periods were comparable. The biggest IPOs were Prime Car Management and PCC Rokita, at PLN 210m and PLN 98m, respectively. IPO (INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING) SOURCE: PWC, IPO WATCH EUROPE, WSE, AUGUST 2014 H Q Q H London Nasdaq OMX NYSE Euronext Warsaw Borsa Italiana Istanbul Deutsche Börse Oslo Spain (BME) Switzerland Both the main index of the Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG and the WIG20 index, which comprises the 20 largest companies listed on the WSE, remained largely unchanged throughout H with a slight fall for WIG and a slight gain for WIG20. Likewise, the real estate sector index WIG-Deweloperzy (WIG- Developers) gained 1% by the end of June 2014 compared with its fi gure in December On the other hand, WIG- Budownictwo (WIG-Construction) fell in H by 13% following strong gains in late WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE DYNAMICS 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% WIG20 WIG WIG Construction WIG Developers SOURCE: STOOQ.PL, AUGUST 2014 INTEREST RATES The Polish Monetary Council has kept the National Bank of Poland s reference rate at 2.5% for more than a year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) resorted to a series of interest rate cuts, bringing down its reference rate to 0.15% and introducing a negative interest rate of -0.1% on deposits. INTEREST RATES 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% WIBOR 6M EURIBOR 6M LIBOR 6M SOURCE: STOOQ.PL, JUNE 2014 EXCHANGE RATES As in 2013, there were no major swings in the exchange rates between the Polish zloty and the world s leading currencies in the fi rst six months of The PLN fl uctuated against the euro, the US dollar and the Swiss franc by less than 1% in H EXCHANGE RATES PLN 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1, SOURCE: STOOQ.PL, JUNE EUR ( ) USD ($) CHF (f) 5

6 AUTUMN 2014 A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication INVESTMENT MARKET Polish commercial investment market volume in H reached EUR 1.4bn, a rise of more than 27% on the same period of the previous year. This improvement was particularly notable in the office sector, which accounted for 51.5% of the total transaction volume, followed by retail with 26.5% and the logistics and warehouse sector taking 22%. Although demand for prime assets remains robust across all the sectors, the office sector owes its strong performance to the ample supply of attractive properties both in Warsaw and in regional cities. As in previous years, investors from Germany, the US and the UK were the main driver of growth accounting for 85% of transaction volume. Polish investors accounted for around 5% of all deals, roughly the same as in The Warsaw Agglomeration is the largest investment market in Poland with a 44% share in the total transaction volume. High liquidity is particularly notable on Warsaw s office market where eight office buildings changed hands in H With improving economic growth in Poland, low inflation and relatively easy access to capital in global financial markets, interest in commercial properties is likely to remain strong. In line with previous years, the transaction volume is expected to hit more than EUR 3bn by the end of 2014 on the back of the projected growth in supply of prime assets and closing of a number of pending negotiations. OFFICE MARKET Office investment volume in H reached EUR 719m, which represents an increase of around 9% on the same period of the previous year and a rise of two and a half times on H Despite the continued modern office space growth outside Warsaw, the capital city remains the top destination for investors with its share of around 75% in the total transaction volume noted in this sector. Out of the eight office buildings transacted in Warsaw, the largest deals included DeAWM s acquisition of Rondo 1 in the city s core for around EUR 300m, W. P. Carey s acquisition of Lipowy Office Park for EUR 108m and Deka s acquisition of Atrium 1 for EUR 94m. The latter two properties are home to banks: Lipowy Office Park is fully taken up by Bank Pekao SA, while bank BZ WBK SA is the anchor tenant of Atrium 1. Such properties are the most sought-after assets with the highest price-to-income ratio. The largest deals in regional markets were recorded in Krakow, where a fund managed by Griffin Real Estate acquired Office Centre Lubicz, and in Wrocław, where the Green Day office building, fully leased to Credit Suisse, was acquired by GLL Real Estate Partners for EUR 42m. TOTAL INVESTMENT DEALS OFFICE INVESTMENT DEALS Transactions annually (bn EUR) 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, H Others Industrial Retail Offices Transactions annually Transactions annually (mn EUR) % % % 800 6% % 200 2% H % Transaction volume Warsaw CL* Warsaw NCL** Other cities * Central Locations ** Non Central Locations Prime Yield TOTAL TRANSACTION VOLUME BY SOURCE OF CAPITAL OFFICE INVESTMENT VOLUME BY LOCATION German 39% 33% US British Polish Canadian Hungarian 56% 20% 24% Warsaw CL Warsaw NCL Other cities 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 13% Spanish Greek 6

7 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication RETAIL MARKET In H1 2014, the retail investment market performed less strongly than the office sector with a transaction volume of around EUR 370m. Poznań City Center shopping centre, acquired by a consortium of Resolution Property and ECE, accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total. The largest transaction in the segment of cities with a population of less than 400,000 was the sale of Galeria Mazovia in Płock to the European Shopping Centre Fund, managed by CBRE Global Investors. Due to the dearth of prime assets in the largest Polish cities, investors are very likely to turn their focus in the forthcoming months to cities with a population of 100,000 to 400,000 offering a number of modern and successful retail properties. Cities with less than 100,000 inhabitants attract relatively strong interest from investors with sales of small-scale retail facilities in Krasnobród, Mielec, Kostrzyń and Kołobrzeg. However, due to the small size of single transactions, such cities accounted for only 6% of the total retail investment volume. The transaction volume in H would have to reach around EUR 1bn for this year s total to equate to that of 2013 (EUR 1.38bn). This could be possible only with sales of entire property portfolios by developers or investors. WAREHOUSE MARKET Investment activity surged in the warehouse sector with EUR 307.6m of deals in H1 2014, a rise of 77% on H The strong performance of the industrial market was supported by a number of portfolio transactions with a large average lot size. The largest transaction was the sale of the portfolio of seven warehouse facilities by Standard Life Investments Select Property Fund to Logicor, a fund managed by Blackstone. Another notable deal was the acquisition of the portfolio of fi ve warehouse parks by Segro European Logistics Partnerships, a fund established by Segro and PSP Investments. A signifi cant share in the investment activity on the warehouse market also came from the US-based Hillwood, which acquired properties in Błonie and Wrocław. The top destination for investors focused on warehouse parks was Upper Silesia, which accounted for 35% of the total transaction volume, followed by Central Poland (28%) and Warsaw s suburbs coming third with a 22% share. Due to the increasing importance of the logistics sector for the Polish economy, demand for high quality warehouses will continue to grow further subject, however, to adequate supply of modern warehouse facilities. RETAIL INVESTMENT DEALS INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT DEALS Transactions annually (mn EUR) H % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Prime Yield Transactions annually (mn EUR) H % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Prime Yield Investment volume Prime yield Multi tenants Single tenant Prime yield RETAIL TRANSACTION VOLUME BY CITY SIZE INDUSTRIAL TRANSACTION VOLUME BY LOCATION 6% 15% 31% 63% > inhabitants inhabitants < inhabitants 22% 35% Upper Silesia Central Poland Warsaw Suburbs Poznań Region 28% 7

8 AUTUMN 2014 A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication OFFICE MARKET MARKET OVERVIEW Poland s office market kept up its strong momentum in H with new office supply in Warsaw and the six largest regional cities totalling nearly 292,000 sq m, roughly the same as in the fi rst six months of the previous year. Leasing volume reached more than 430,000 sq m, a fall of nearly 17% on H1 2013, most of which (60%) was in Warsaw, followed by Krakow (60,000 sq m) and Tricity (28,000 sq m). The average vacancy rate in the six largest regional cities fell by 1.5 percentage points at the end of Q2 2014, indicating an improvement for property owners and developers in regional markets since late Compared with year-end 2013 the lowest vacancy rate of less than 3.6% is in Krakow, which is not working to the advantage of large tenants looking for readily available office space. Krakow, however, offers a relatively wide choice of office space in a considerable number of projects under construction and in the pipeline to companies ready to wait a few months or longer before moving to new headquarters. On the other hand, Katowice s low vacancy rate of 5.4% is due to developers remaining cautious about launching new projects on account of limited occupier interest. The development market in Warsaw is steadily consolidating to leave an increasingly dominant position in the hands of large specialized market players who own substantial office stock in existing buildings or schemes under construction and in the pipeline. In addition, due to weak tenant interest in securing space on a pre-let basis, many smaller developers fi nd it a signifi cant challenge to obtain financing for new developments. Despite this, headline rents remained fl at across all the office markets in Poland as in the majority of large European cities. Warsaw s prime headline rents stood at EUR 25/sq m/month, while in regional cities they ranged from EUR 13/sq m/month in Łódź to EUR 15/ sq m/month in Krakow. OFFICE RENTAL GROWTH (YEAR-ON-YEAR) 15,0% 0,0% -15,0% -30,0% -45,0% VI 2009 VI 2010 VI 2011 VI 2012 VI 2013 VI 2014 West CE EMU East EU WARSAW The Warsaw market continues to attract strong interest from both developers and occupiers. Its modern office space stock rose to more than 4.3 million sq m at the end of June 2014, which made Warsaw come 21 st in the European ranking of office stock, ahead of Istanbul (4 million sq m), Dublin (3.6 million sq m) and Prague (3 million sq m). Given the current level of investment costs, developers hope to be able to offer competitive rents to those in the existing buildings, particularly those tinged with wear and tear and requiring substantial outlays to maintain an adequate standard. In addition, development activity is spurred by the rising level of occupied space, up by more than 2.5% in H The positive economic outlook for Poland and improvements in Warsaw s road and transport infrastructure, including the planned opening of the second metro line, will remain the main driver of the capital s office market growth. WARSAW OFFICE MARKET WARSAW CENTRAL LOCATIONS Number of buildings NON CENTRAL LOCATIONS Stock (sq m) Total vacancy (sq m) Vacancy rate (%) 13.35% 13.56% 13.26% 8

9 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication CONCENTRATION OF MODERN OFFICE SPACE IN WARSAW W N SW1 SW2 CL US LS SE Non Central Locations (zones): N North W West SW 1 South West 1 SW 2 South West 2 US Upper South LS Lower South SE South East E East Core E TAKE-UP Leasing activity at the end of Q totalled 259,000 sq m, representing 41% of 2013 s total take-up, of which one-fourth was in Central Locations (CL). The highest take-up of 95,900 sq m was noted in the Upper South (US) zone, while the lowest of 4,500 sq m in the South-Eastern (SE) zone. The number of pre-lets fell from 51,800 sq m in the fi rst half of 2013 to little more than 17,000 sq m in H Renegotiations accounted for 37% of Warsaw s total take-up while the share of new leases stood at 53%, a fall of 9 percentage points on H The largest transactions included Netia s lease renewal of 13,200 sq m in Marynarska Business Park and PwC s lease extension for 10,800 sq m in the International Business Center. Citi Service Center Poland (Citibank Group) took up an additional 7,900 sq m in Marynarska 12. However, the largest new deal in H was the lease of 6,000 sq m by the Regional and District Courts in the building at 9/11 Płocka Street. The decline in take-up largely results from 5-year cycle started in 2009 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which held occupiers back from leasing office space for fi ve years. This year s take-up may, however, reach 550,000 sq m by the end of December with a revival in leasing activity expected in , ,000 sq m 200, ,000 sq m 400, ,000 sq m over 600,000 sq m CC-Fringe Fringe Central Locations: Core Fringe SUPPLY In H1 2014, more than 190,000 sq m of modern office space was delivered onto the Warsaw market in 17 schemes, nearly 40,000 sq m more than in H The largest completions were HB Reavis Gdański Business Center near the Warsaw Gdańska railway station in the N zone (A and B buildings totalling 44,500 sq m) and phase one of Capital Park s Eurocentrum Office Complex in Al. Jerozolimskie (Beta and Gamma buildings totalling 38,700 sq m, SW1). The majority of new space was delivered in the South-Western 1 zone (SW1) and the Northern zone (N), more than 58,400 sq m and around 44,500 sq m, respectively. No office space was added to the market in three zones (W, E and LS) in H Other major completions included phase one of Echo Investment s Park Rozwoju in the US zone (16,000 sq m), Skanska s Atrium 1 in the Core zone (15,700 sq m) and OKRE Development s Green Wings in the SW2 zone (10,800 sq m). Overall, more than 140,000 sq m of office space is scheduled to come onto the Warsaw market by December 2014, bringing this year s total supply to 330,000 sq m, the highest since TAKE-UP IN WARSAW sq m 700, , , , , , , H Take-up CL Take-up NCL 9

10 AUTUMN 2014 A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication ABSORPTION Absorption in Warsaw in H stood at 99,000 sq m, which marked an increase of 24% on the level in the same period of The rising absorption level resulted primarily from increased tenant activity in Non-Central Locations (NCL 97,000 sq m). Absorption in Central Locations (CL) was positive reached more than 2,000, indicating a slowdown in occupiers moving away to the capital s Non-Central Locations. Absorption in H is rather unlikely to match the fi gure noted in the fi rst six months, but it is almost certain to exceed 2013 s total of 127,000 sq m. SUPPLY AND ABSORPTION IN WARSAW sq m H Supply CL Supply NCL Absorption CL Absorption NCL VACANCY The rising office supply pushed the vacancy rate in Warsaw up to 13.35% at the end of Q2 2014, a rise of around 1.6 percentage points from the rate noted at the end of 2013, in contrast to the European average of around 10% for the largest cities. The vacancy rate stood at more than 10% in all the zones except the South-Eastern zone (SE). The largest volumes of vacant space were recorded in the Upper South zone (US) and the Fringe, 149,200 sq m and 101,500, respectively. Office buildings reporting high space availability in H included Konstruktorska Business Center (26,000 sq m) and Plac Unii (18,000 sq m). The largest hike in vacancies was in the Northern zone (N) from 13.8% at the end of 2013 to more than 23.3%, following primarily the delivery of building A of the Gdański Business Center (17,200 sq m). In H the Fringe posted the highest increase in space availability of more than 27,000 sq m. Despite high absorption of new space, the rising number of office buildings coming on stream will continue to push vacancy rates up in the forthcoming quarters. 0 sq m RENTS With office supply outstripping current demand, rising void rates are leading to further downward pressure on rents, but prime headline rents remained fl at in H In Warsaw s Core rents stood at less than EUR 25/sq m/month, while the lowest rents in Central Locations (CL) were in the EUR /sq m/month range for modern office buildings. Non-Central Locations fetch EUR /sq m/month, but prime office buildings outside the city centre command EUR 13.5/sq m/month or more. To keep headline rents stable, both office building owners and developers are offering an increasing number of concessions in lease packages such as rent-free periods, fi t-out contributions or low add-on factors which continue to be key features in competition for tenants. Following the rising supply in the forthcoming months, occupiers will enjoy stronger bargaining power on this increasingly tenant-led market. It may prove difficult to maintain rents at their current level unless tenants are sufficiently stimulated by Poland s economic fundamentals to expand and report increased leasing requirements. PRIME RENTS AND VACANCY IN WARSAW EUR/sq m/month 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0, H Prime rents CL Vacancy CL Prime rents NCL Vacancy NCL 16,00% 14,00% 12,00% 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% Vacancy rate 10

12 AUTUMN 2014 A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication RETAIL MARKET POLAND New retail space supply in H totalled 245,000 sq m, up by more than 20% on the fi gure recorded in the same period of 2013, bringing Poland s total stock to 10.1 million sq m. By the end of June 2014, eleven new retail schemes were opened and two extensions were completed. Extensions accounted for around 5% of the new fl oorspace provision in H The biggest retail scheme completed in the fi rst half of the year was Atrium Felicity in Lublin (75,000 sq m), which opened in March, being also the largest shopping centre scheduled for Around 645,000 sq m of new retail space is under construction, of which around 250,000 sq m is expected to come on stream by the end of December. The biggest H2 shopping centre will be Galeria Warmińska in Olsztyn (41,000 sq m). According to the latest estimates, Poland s modern retail supply will total 495,000 sq m in 2014, a fall of 24% on 2013 s record fi gure. Demand for retail space remained at a healthy level in H Tenants focused on established retail schemes offering high footfall and satisfactory revenues. Re-marketed shopping centres are an attractive alternative to newly-constructed space. Due to the current demand level, the marketing period for new schemes has become much longer and few shopping centres are fully let when they open. Vacancies in newly-opened retail schemes average 10-15%. Average vacancy rate is increasing across all retail facilities owing to the growing volume of vacant space in secondary schemes, particularly on oversupplied markets. In July 2014, Kielce posted the highest vacancy rate at 6.9%, while the lowest was in Lublin (1.2%) and in Łódź Conurbation (1.4%). The average vacancy rate for all retail units in cities above 200,000 inhabitants is 3%. SUPPLY OF MODERN RETAIL SPACE IN POLAND sq m H Shopping centres Retail warehouses Wholesales warehouses Factory outlets SHOPPING AND LEISURE CENTRES In H1 2014, Poland had 381 shopping centres, providing a total of 9.07 million sq m. From January through June shopping centre provision rose by 206,000 sq m following the opening of six new shopping centres: Atrium Felicity in Lublin (75,000 sq m, this year s largest retail development), Galeria Amber in Kalisz (33,500 sq m), Galeria S in Siedlce (34,000 sq m), Galeria Bursztynowa in Ostrołęka (26,000 sq m), Marcredo Center Kutno (16,700 sq m) and Pogodne Centrum in Oleśnica (7,700 sq m). In addition, 13,000 sq m was added to Gemini Park in Bielsko- Biała, increasing its total fl oorspace to 40,000 sq m. The fi rst half of this year saw a fl urry of new shopping centre openings in secondary markets in contrast to 2013, when large-scale retail schemes were opened in big cities such as Poznań (Poznań City Center), Katowice (Galeria Katowicka), Krakow (Galeria Bronowice), Gliwice (Europa Centralna) and Gdynia (Riviera). Lublin is the largest city (nearly 350,000 inhabitants) with new retail space coming on stream and accounting for one-third of total provision in H The other new retail schemes, making up 57% of the total supply, were opened in Kalisz (population of more than 100,000) and smaller cities such as Siedlce, Ostrołęka and Kutno with 50,000-70,000 inhabitants. The smallest city with a new shopping centre is Oleśnica (37,000 inhabitants). Five per cent of this year s provision came through the extension of Gemini Park in Bielsko-Biała with a population of 174,000. More than 40% of the shopping centres under construction will be completed in H to deliver 209,000 sq m in 12 schemes. This fi gure includes three extensions, the largest being the extension and rebranding of Galeria Sudecka (formerly Galeria Echo) in Jelenia Góra with 30,000 sq m planned to be added. The other two shopping centres to be extended are Atrium Copernicus in Toruń (17,000 sq m to be added) and Galeria 12

13 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication Rywal in Biała Podlaska (12,000 sq m). Shopping centres scheduled to open by the end of 2014 include Brama Mazur in Ełk, Galeria Warmińska in Olsztyn, Galeria Dębiec in Poznań, Galeria Jurowiecka in Białystok, Galeria Piła and Galeria Galardia in Starachowice. Occupier demand shows strong variations and depends on shopping centre density, scheme quality and space availability. The shopping centre density in the eight conurbations is the highest in Wrocław and Poznań, and the lowest in Warsaw and Szczecin. The record high density in Poland is, however, in smaller cities such as Zgorzelec, Opole, Nowy Sącz and Rzeszów. The highest rents are in Warsaw s prime shopping centres at EUR /sq m/month for a fashion store sized between 100 sq m and 150 sq m. Rents average EUR 35-40/sq m/month in the other seven conurbations and EUR 20-25/sq m/month in small and medium-sized cities. It is becoming increasingly common for anchor tenants taking up 1,000-2,000 sq m to demand large fi t-out contributions and turnover-based rent, particularly in secondary cities and markets with high saturation of modern retail space. SATURATION OF MODERN RETAIL SPACE IN CITIES WITH OVER INHABITANTS GLA sq m/1000 inhabitants Kielce Wrocław Con. Poznań Con. Tricity Con. Częstochowa existing Radom Warsaw Con. Toruń Bydgoszcz Krakow Con. Lublin Łódź Con. Białystok existing and under construction Szczecin Con. Katowice Con. VACANCIES IN SHOPPING CENTRES IN H % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Kielce Wrocław Con. Poznań Con. Tricity Con. Częstochowa Radom Warsaw Con. Toruń Bydgoszcz Krakow Con. Lublin Łódź Con. Białystok Szczecin Con. Katowice Con. HIGH STREETS High streets feature fi rmly on the retail maps of cities and are complementary to shopping centres for customers both to do shopping and to relax. The total fl oorspace of high street stores frequently equates to that of a medium-sized shopping centre. Demand for high street space comes largely from restaurants, cafes, fashion retailers, services and daily shopping stores. Due to low availability of units in top high street destinations, rents have remained at high levels of EUR 75-90/sq m/month (unit sq m, non-food sector). ESTIMATED SUPPLY AND AVERAGE RENTS IN HIGH STREETS sq m ,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 EUR/sq m/month 0 Warsaw Krakow Łódź Wrocław Poznań Tricity Szczecin Katowice 0,0 Estimated supply GLA Average rent (commercial units independently owned) 13

14 AUTUMN 2014 A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication PRIME RENTS IN HIGH STREETS Katowice Con. Szczecin Tricity Poznań Wrocław Łódź Krakow Warsaw EUR/sq m/month Gdańsku HYPERMARKETS AND SUPERMARKETS The Polish food sector is expanding mainly through discount chains and convenience store chains comprising small, convenientlylocated stores close to the customer, typically on the ground floor of residential blocks, in shopping and service local parades of housing estates or in downtown locations. Examples of successful convenience store chains are Żabka and Freshmarket. International hypermarket and wholesales operators are also developing their own convenience store franchise chains, including Carrefour with Carrefour Express and the Metro Group, building its chain of Odido stores under the Makro Cash & Carry brand (more than 2,000 small food stores in the last three years). The hypermarket sector is experiencing continued stagnation. The most active market players include Auchan, opening on average one large hypermarket every year with the recent opening in Lublin s Atrium Felicity (15,000 sq m), Tesco and E.Leclerc, which focus on smaller format units of 4,000-5,000 sq m (E.Leclerc in Galeria Amber in Kalisz and Tesco in Galeria Bursztynowa in Ostrołęka). Carrefour, which did not expand through large stores in recent years, has announced its plans to open hypermarkets in Galeria Piła (scheduled for late 2014) and Galeria Posnania in Poznań. Rents for food stores stand at EUR 6-7/sq m/month for hypermarkets, EUR 7-10/sq m/month for supermarkets and EUR 5-8/sq m/month for discount stores. KEY HYPERMARKET OPERATORS IN POLAND (NUMBER OF HYPERMARKETS) Auchan+Real Carrefour Kaufland E.Leclerc Tesco NUMBER OF CHAIN FOOD STORES OPENED IN H Tesco Piotr i Paweł Lidl E.Leclerc Kaufland Intermarche Czerwona Torebka Carrefour Biedronka Auchan Alma Aldi Supermarket and discount chains are also expanding at a slower pace than in previous years. The fi rst half of 2014 saw only few openings, e.g.: Stokrotka in Galeria S in Siedlce and Marcpol in Marcredo Center Kutno, while the openings scheduled for H include Piotr i Paweł in Galeria Warmińska in Olsztyn and Biedronka in Galeria Dębiec in Poznań. Recent market changes, particularly the consolidation of the hypermarket and supermarket sector, changing consumer behaviour, the rapid growth of e-commerce and an overall decline in retail sales, have forced food chain operators to more focus on improving the efficiency of their existing store network than on expansion. 14

15 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication DIY STORES AND RETAIL PARKS Retail market changes have also affected the sector of DIY stores and retail parks. The DIY sector remains in a difficult situation (10 Nomi stores have been closed since January 2014). Swiss company Papag took over Praktiker s stores. Only a handful of operators are opting for limited expansion. In H1 2014, only three large DIY hypermarkets were opened: two Leroy Merlin stores in Płock and Lublin (Atrium Felicity) and OBI in Ostrołęka s Galeria Bursztynowa, while Bricomarché added 10 smaller format stores of up to 2,000 sq m to its chain. The Polish chain Polskie Składy Budowlane Mrówka (PSB Mrówka) is expanding strongly and comprises 174 stores in its franchise network (a rise of 15% from January 2014). However, both Bricomarché and PSB Mrówka are opening stores in smaller cities in contrast to the previous expansion of international DIY operators focused on large cities. NUMBER OF DIY STORES Castorama+ Brico Depot Leroy Merlin OBI Nomi Praktiker PSB Mrówka Bricomarche Bricoman 46 Similar trends are seen in the retail park sector. Due to high saturation of modern retail space in large cities, retail parks are being developed mainly in smaller cities. Four retail parks totalling 24,000 sq m (5,000-8,500 sq m each) were opened in H1 2014: Karuzela in Lubliniec (24,000 inhabitants) and Turek (28,000 inhabitants), Era Park Handlowy in Radomsko (48,000 inhabitants) and Park Handlowy in Żory (62,000 inhabitants). The largest volume of new space in this sector was delivered through the extension of the Graniczna shopping centre in Płock: 15,000 sq m for the Leroy Merlin DIY store. Seven retail parks totalling around 41,000 sq m are scheduled to open by the end of These include schemes sized between 5,000 sq m and 6,000 sq m in Kętrzyn, Nowa Sól, Siedlce, Chełm, Ruda Śląska, Bielsko-Biała and Łódź. 46 OUTLET CENTRES Poland has ten outlet centres totalling nearly 167,000 sq m, one in Wrocław, Poznań, Krakow, Sosnowiec, Gdańsk, Szczecin and Łódź each, and three such centres in the Warsaw Agglomeration. Only one outlet centre was under construction in the fi rst half of 2014 in Lublin (12,000 sq m) with scheduled opening for Q Recently construction works of another outlet centre in Białystok (13,000 sq m) have started. This unit will be opened in spring The extension of Warsaw s Factory Ursus broke ground in June to provide a new underground car park and an additional 6,000 sq m of new retail space in the former car park area. Both the new car park and the new retail part will be opened in H Other planned extensions, including that of Outlet Park Szczecin, have been put on hold. Outlet centres provide sales space for more than 1,000 stores of Polish and foreign retailers from the fashion, footwear and sports equipment sectors. Occupier demand is the strongest in Warsaw, where the vacancy rate is around 2.5%, slightly higher than that of traditional shopping centres. Vacancy in other cities is between 2 and 9%, the lowest in Gdańsk and Wrocław, and the highest in Krakow. Rents in outlet centres are relatively low. Average rent for a store of sq m in Warsaw is EUR 22-24/sq m/month while in other cities it stands at EUR 20-22/sq m/month OUTLET CENTRES IN POLAND IN H Warsaw Katowice Krakow Poznań Existing Wrocław Szczecin Under construction Łódź Tricity Other cities 15

16 AUTUMN 2014 A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication INDUSTRIAL MARKET MARKET OVERVIEW The fi rst half of 2014 proved to be very strong for the warehouse sector in Poland in terms of developer and tenant activity. The volume of space delivered onto the market in H was close to the total supply recorded in Given the amount of warehouse space currently under construction, this year s supply is expected to be the highest in the last fi ve years. Take-up rose in H by 20% compared with H Leasing volume will remain high throughout the rest of the year, but total take-up in 2014 is rather unlikely to exceed the record level noted in The vacancy rate fell signifi cantly from 10.9% at year-end 2013 to 8.8% at the end of June 2014, which indicates that the industrial market is witnessing further expansion. STOCK At the end of June 2014 total modern warehouse stock in Poland reached 8,200,000 sq m. The highest concentration of warehouse space is in the Warsaw region (around 34% market share), but improvements in infrastructure have led to increasing industrial space development in the regions such as Upper Silesia, Central Poland, Poznań and Wrocław, which account for nearly 58% of Poland s total stock. The smaller markets of Tricity, Krakow, Rzeszów, Toruń, Szczecin and Lublin are developing steadily, but their share in the country s total stock stands at 7%. SUPPLY Around 340,000 sq m of warehouse space was delivered in Poland in H1 2014, nearly as much as in the twelve months of 2013, with the Poznań region accounting for the largest share in total volume (25%). Central Poland and Wrocław made up 22% and 20%, respectively. The largest completions in H included Castorama s BTS project in Stryków (50,000 sq m) developed by Panattoni, further phases of CLIP Poznań and Prologis Park Wrocław V (35,000 sq m each), and Panattoni s BTS project for Polaris in Opole (34,000 sq m). STOCK UNDER CONSTRUCTION At the end of June 2014 around 863,000 sq m of warehouse space was under construction, over 60% more than at year-end 2013, with most of the projects (75%) being developed in the Poznań and Wrocław regions. The largest developments underway are being carried out for Amazon by Goodman in Wrocław (123,500 sq m) and by Panattoni in Wrocław and Poznań (100,500 sq m each). Other major projects include Goodman Poznań II Logistics Centre (82,000 sq m), Goodman Konin (40,000 sq m) and the next phase of CLIP Poznań (38,000 sq m). BTS schemes constructed to meet specifi c requirements of clients continue to dominate the market with speculative warehouse developments being scarce. However, in some locations with very low vacancy rates developers may also construct mixed schemes comprising a speculative component and some space secured in the form of pre-lets. VACANCY RATES Despite large supply, the vacancy rate fell from 10.9% at year-end 2013 to 8.8% at the end of June, which equates to a decrease in vacant warehouse space of 145,000 sq m. Of the core markets, the highest vacancy rates are in Warsaw and Central Poland at 12.1% and 11.7%, respectively. The amount of vacant space in Warsaw s inner city (14.7%) is much higher than in the Greater Warsaw area (11.3%). The lowest vacancy rates are noted in Poznań (1.9%), Wrocław (6.2%) and Upper Silesia (7.9%). It is worth noting that in H vacancy fell across all the core warehouse markets in Poland. Among smaller markets where a single lease can easily impact vacancy levels, there are regions reporting both considerable declines in vacant space (Szczecin and Krakow) but at the same time some regions are noticing rising vacancy rates (Torun, Rzeszów, Lublin and Tricity). 16

19 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication HOSPITALITY MARKETS The hospitality market in Poland has been going through a very positive period, being driven by several encouraging aspects. The fi rst important factor for Poland from tourism point of view is PR of the country. This was strongly encouraged in 2012 when the successful football championship EURO 2012 took place and this event helped to promote Poland worldwide. The smooth functioning and the quality organization of the tournament contributed positively to the idea that Poland could be seen as a holiday destination. Another positive factor is improving investment market conditions as there has been an increase in both private and institutional equity investments. Banks now feel more confi dent when lending to the hotel sector as they can see the KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) improving. DEMAND Tourism demand in Poland has shown significant growth since 2010 and the total number of guests accommodated in hotels in Poland has increased in total by 27.0% over the past five years. The results for 2013 showed a growth of 0.7% in the number of tourists accommodated compared to 2012 figures. This positive trend is expected to continue as the market is performing better in Q with an increase of 12.9% in the number of guests accommodated in Poland compared to the previous year. The Polish hotel market is highly dependent on local guests as the nationality split shows a high proportion of local guests staying in hotels (c. 70%) compared to foreigners (c. 30%). This characteristic is the main difference between Poland and other Central European markets which attract predominately foreign guests. Consequently, during the last global economic downturn this specific demand pattern was a clear advantage as the Polish hotel market suffered less from the general drop in foreigner demand than its neighbours. The regions near the borders and the capital record higher percentage of foreign guests. The primary source countries for visitation to Poland are Germany, Russia, and the UK. In 2013, Germany accounted for 25% of the total number of visitors followed by Russia (8%) and the UK (7%). NUMBER OF HOTEL GUESTS 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, % +8.4% Domestic Foreigners SOURCE: POLISH CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE, AUGUST 2014 PASSENGERS AT POLISH AIRPORTS 26,000,000 24,000,000 22,000,000 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000, % +6.1% SOURCE: WIKIPEDIA & AIRPORT WEBSITES SUPPLY +5.8% +0.7% +12.6% +2.1% Zielona Góra Lublin Bydgoszcz Szczecin Łódź Rzeszów Poznań Wrocław Katowice Gdańsk Krakow Warsaw Modlin Warsaw Chopin We are in the midst of a boom of new hotel openings in Poland. According to the Polish Central Statistical Office, in 2012 there were 1,909 hotels compared with 2,008 in 2013, which represents 5.2% year over year growth. Hotels in lower categories are predominant with with 42% of the market share belonging to the 3-star segment, followed by 4-star and 2-star segments with 27% and 20% respectively. According to STR Global Poland has the most branded rooms (58%) in CEE as of March 2014 and most of the hotels of higher standard are operated by international operators. In terms of arrivals, the number of guests entering the country by plane has been steadily increasing. In total there are thirteen airports in Poland handling domestic and international flights. The total number of passengers in the country has been steadily growing since 2009 at compounded rate of 5.6%. In 2012, the new airports, Warsaw Modlin and Lublin, were opened in order to absorb the increased number of passengers. 19

20 AUTUMN 2014 A Cushman & Wakefi eld Research Publication NEW HOTEL OPENINGS Poland has seen a recent increase in new hotel openings due to the UEFA European championship in 2012, however, the country still offers plenty of hotel development opportunities especially in secondary cities. The Polish hotel market is very dynamic and many developments are under construction at the moment. A large number of hotel projects are expected to be completed in the coming two years, including internationally branded hotels such as Hilton, Marriott, Motel One and Raffles. PERFORMANCE 2012 was an exceptional year for Polish hotel market and therefore the following year was the time to stabilise and establish the right level of occupancy and ADR. The RevPAR in 2013 was therefore expected to end up in slightly negative numbers compared to the previous year and it actually dropped by 4.7%. On the other hand, YTD July 2014 already shows improved performance which is based on sustainable levels of KPIs. The increase of occupancy was 0.5%, increase of ADR was 0.3%, both resulting in an increase of RevPAR by 0.7%. HOTEL ROOM SUPPLY IN THE PIPELINE IN POLAND BY CATEGORY SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD GLOBAL HOSPITALITY, JULY 2014 INVESTMENT star 4-star 3-star So far there were two important hotel deals in Poland that closed in H Both took place in Warsaw and we detail the transactions in the table below. KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 80% % % 65% PLN 300 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 60% % % 45% 0 40% SOURCE: POLISH CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE, AUGUST 2014 ADR RevPAR Occupancy HOTEL TRANSACTIONS IN POLAND IN I H 2014 R. Hotel City Operator Rooms Star rating Sale price (EUR) Vendor Purchaser Hampton Warsaw City Center Warsaw Hilton N/A S+B gruppe N/A Hampton by Hilton Warsaw Warsaw Hilton Confi dential GBI AG Wurttleben SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD GLOBAL HOSPITALITY, JULY

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