Transportationís Role in Climate Change

Daniel Sperling

22nd-May-2009

Description: There will be an estimated 2 billion cars globally in 2020. In next 10 years, the world will consume 1/4 of all oil consumed through its entire history. People need to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions to stabilize the climate. Some scientists now say 350 ppm is necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change. Direct share* transport Greenhouse gas CeOm2i emissions rose more rapidly in transportation than any other sector Ė up 120% between 1970 and 2004.

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Already Already Produced Produced OPEC OPEC Middle Middle East East Other Other ConvConventional entional

Oil Shale Oil Shale

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Deep Water Deep Water

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IEA, 2005

Barrels Oil (billions)

Humans Need to Dramatically Reduce CO2 Emissions to Stabilize the Climate
Some scientists now say 350 ppm is necessary to avoid catastrophic climate

Billion tons of CO2 (global)

750 ppm

change

550 450

350 ppm

To stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration, need to decarbonize the energy system at several times the historical rate of 0.3%/y. Even if electric sector is completely decarbonized by 2100, stabilization at 550 (450) ppm => 3 (5) fold reduction in carbon emissions from direct fuel use vs. IS92a.

First Leg Transforming Vehicles
Cars of future will be far more efficient and will be powered mostly by electric-drive
"...If we work together, we can make the 21st century the age of the electric vehicle."
Toyota Chairman Shoichiro Toyoda, October 1996

Electric vehicle experiment of 1990s largely failed ... but led to improved batteries and electric drivetrains which are now making comebacks in hybrids, fuel cell vehicles... and battery-electric vehicles!
DCX GEMs in Factory, 2002 GM EV1

Early version of Ford//Pivco BEV
Toyota Honda

Bombardier

Pivco/Th!nk

Nissan

Will Plug-in Vehicles Succeed?

In China? Yes! As small battery-electrics? Yes! As blended hybrids? Yes! As Volt-type hybrids? Hmm... some day

Battery cost must drop, durability must increase

Another Transformation:

Connecting Vehicles to Buildings and Electricity Grid

Cautionary Note:

Battery Progress is Impressive, but Next Generation Batteries are Still Expensive
10000

Question of Will and Vision, More Than Cost
Consider hydrogen and fuel cells, which many
think is most expensive and difficult transition ...
$55 billion extra over 15 years for vehicles and fuels, to get to 10% market penetration (NRC/NAS, 2008)

Future of US RFS and California LCFS? Effectiveness of SB375 VMT/LU policy initiatives?
Lesser Policy Questions ZEV program? How will it change and how aggressive will it be? Feebates and vehicle incentive programs? Will auto industry be transformed (bankruptcy) and how will that affect
rollout of advanced technology? rollouts, other?

How to support EV and H2 infrastructure? "Better Place," regional H2 Cap and trade vis--vis LCFS/RFS