Comments for Isobel Williams – Author, Cruise Speaker and Lecturerhttps://isobelpwilliams.com
Author of With Scott in the Antarctic: Edward Wilson (Explorer, Naturalist, Artist); Captain Scott's Invaluable Assistant: Edgar Evans; and My Life on Shelter IslandMon, 05 Mar 2018 13:11:22 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.com/Comment on John’s 50th visit to Antarctica by Yvanahttps://isobelpwilliams.com/2018/02/28/johns-50th-visit-to-antarctica/#comment-2049
Mon, 05 Mar 2018 13:11:22 +0000http://isobelpwilliams.com/?p=1425#comment-2049A fascinating read and great timing as we’ve been experiencing Arctic conditions here, with all the problems and challenges. I for one am only too pleased to be rid of monochrome and to see the Spring grass coming through! Thank you too for the ‘head’s up’ on a new William Bruce biography.
]]>Comment on Further comments on Scott’s ‘suicide’ by Billhttps://isobelpwilliams.com/2017/11/05/further-comments-on-scotts-suicide/#comment-2046
Sun, 11 Feb 2018 02:40:41 +0000http://isobelpwilliams.com/?p=1278#comment-2046It is disappointing that Professor Sienicki has not responded about the substance of Ryan Fogt’s paper ‘An Exceptional Summer During the South Pole Race of 1911/12’, published by the American Meteorological Society in October 2017. I have asked three times via this blog whether he accepts the findings of Fogt’s paper. In the absence of any response from the Professor, I will move forward on the assumption that his answer would be ‘yes’.

It appears in light of Fogt’s paper that Professor Sienicki faces some difficulties if he wishes to defend certain aspects his 2010 paper ‘The Weather and its Role in Captain Robert F. Scott and his Companions’ Deaths.’

1. Sienicki’s methodology involves ‘training’ his ANN model to learn to classify patterns in meteorological data recorded at McMurdo Base (inputs to the model), and from those inputs to calculate corresponding data for other specific points on the Ross Ice Shelf (in particular the Schwerdtfeger Automated Weather Station at -79.904°, 169.97°). The ‘training’ is achieved by processing a sufficient number of datasets to cover every possible meteorological pattern that will occur in the time period to which the ANN model is to be applied. The ANN model will not recognise and will not correctly interpret patterns that have not been encountered during training. Fogt’s assessment is that there were only three Antarctic summers in the last 110 years (1911/12, 1925/26 and 1976/77) where summer mean pressures exceeding 1,000 hPa. (Fogt, p. 2192) – hence his classification of 1911/12 as an exceptional summer. As I understand the Professor’s methodology, training datasets would need to include McMurdo and Schwerdtfeger for at least 1925/26 and 1976/77, before the ANN model could be seen as being adequately trained to predict / retrodict 1911/12 temperatures at Schwerdtfeger. However, Sienicki’s 2010 paper has been constrained by non-availability of AWS data prior to 1985. This non-availability of training data from these exceptional Antarctic summers raises concerns about the legitimacy of his approach to assessing the Polar Party’s temperature data (in 1912 or any other exceptional Antarctic summer). It is an ‘elephant in the room’

2. An observation that comes to mind is that Sienicki’s ANN-based scientific analysis has not produced any conclusions about the Terra Nova expedition that could not have been produced by comparing the Polar Party’s temperature data against simple arithmetic means of AWS temperature data. By having temperature as its single meteorological variable, Professor Sienicki’s ANN model is somewhat simplistic. Fogt’s paper shows that mean pressure is an important meteorological variable in modelling and understanding Antarctic weather events such as the 4-day warm wet spell experienced by The Polar Party from 5 December 1911, which Sienicki sidesteps with “Research into this question is needed” (Sienicki p. 7). Further, by making altitude adjustments, Fogt is able to include data from the polar plateau, something that Sienicki’s ANN model cannot do in its current state of maturity.

3. Sienicki uses two proxies in applying his ANN abstraction to Antarctic topography: (1) McMurdo AWS is used as a proxy for Wind Vane Hill (at Cape Evans where Simpson collected his meteorological data in 1911/12) and (2) Schwerdtfeger AWS is used as a single proxy for all the Polar Party’s locations between 27 February 1912 and 19 March 1912. In 2015, I raised questions with Professor Sienicki about his evidence for the validity of proxy (1) and was fobbed off. However I note Fogt’s statement “While pressures can be considered fairly uniform, local temperatures are well known to be highly variable around Ross Island and on parts of the Ross Ice Shelf, owing to, for example, katabatic and foehn winds and variations in sea ice cover” (Fogt, p. 2191). Scott reported temperature variations of up to 4 or 5 degrees Fahrenheit between the Cape Evans hut and the top of Wind Vane Hill (Scott, p.187, 192). I do not know what data exists about temperature variations in 1911/12 between the Cape Evans hut and the location which became McMurdo AWS many years later, but Sienicki treats any net difference between Wind Vane Hill observations and McMurdo AWS’s location as being insignificant. Given the scientific rigour applied in other areas of Sienicki’s paper, I see the lack of rigour applied to proxy (1) as another ‘elephant in the room’.

4. Fogt wrote about the cold spell experienced by Scott in late February and March 1912: “… although the daily averaged temperatures at this time were unusual, they were not record cold, and they do not fall below the two standard deviation threshold based on the ERA-Interim climatology” (Fogt, p. 2197). There is no suggestion by Fogt that Scott and Bowers falsified their temperature data from 27 February 1912 onwards. The ‘Results and Discussion’ section in Sienicki’s paper should be amended accordingly.

5. The final challenge that comes to mind is to identify a pathway for Sienicki’s ANN-model to be refined in order to take on-board Fogt’s work, so that further advances can be made in scientific modelling and analysis of Antarctic weather. Fogt’s paper does not take wind velocity & direction or cloud & sunshine into account as meteorological variables, so perhaps an ANN model that had input neurons for near surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind velocity & direction and cloud & sunshine could lead to significant advances in scientific understanding of Antarctic weather. Just a suggestion. With a more sophisticated model incorporating additional variables across a longer time span, it would be interesting to see if Sienicki’s pre-disposition to ‘mirrored similarity’ holds true for exceptional years.

You have have made a lot of interesting and valid points, indicating a solid, wide-ranging research effort.

I wonder if anybody is prepared to speak up to defend Professor Turney’s article.

]]>Comment on Addison’s Disease and Deaths on Franklin’s North West Passage Expedition of the 1840s by Alexhttps://isobelpwilliams.com/2017/09/12/addisons-disease-and-deaths-on-franklins-north-west-passage-expedition-of-the-1840s/#comment-2036
Sun, 21 Jan 2018 08:24:46 +0000http://isobelpwilliams.com/?p=1244#comment-2036You really make it seem so easy along with your presentation however I in finding this topic to be really something which I think I would by no means understand. It kind of feels too complicated and very wide for me. I’m taking a look ahead to your next post, I will attempt to get the hold of it!
]]>Comment on William Speirs Bruce and Autism by Alexhttps://isobelpwilliams.com/2017/08/07/william-speirs-bruce-and-autism/#comment-2034
Sat, 20 Jan 2018 18:20:53 +0000http://isobelpwilliams.com/?p=1233#comment-2034Wow, wonderful weblog layout! How lengthy have you ever been blogging for? you made blogging glance easy. The full glance of your site is fantastic, as smartly as the content!
]]>Comment on Addison’s Disease and Deaths on Franklin’s North West Passage Expedition of the 1840s by Alexhttps://isobelpwilliams.com/2017/09/12/addisons-disease-and-deaths-on-franklins-north-west-passage-expedition-of-the-1840s/#comment-2033
Sat, 20 Jan 2018 18:11:10 +0000http://isobelpwilliams.com/?p=1244#comment-2033I’m not certain where you’re getting your info, but good topic. I must spend some time finding out much more or working out more. Thank you for great info I was in search of this info for my mission.
]]>Comment on New Book on Bruce by Bill Rosshttps://isobelpwilliams.com/2018/01/16/new-book-on-bruce/#comment-2031
Wed, 17 Jan 2018 03:33:14 +0000http://isobelpwilliams.com/?p=1372#comment-2031Congratulations Isobel. Another item to add to my shelf of books by or about family members.
]]>Comment on New Book on Bruce by Anne Strathiehttps://isobelpwilliams.com/2018/01/16/new-book-on-bruce/#comment-2030
Tue, 16 Jan 2018 17:14:45 +0000http://isobelpwilliams.com/?p=1372#comment-2030Congratulations, Isobel, I’ll very much look forward to reading it! Best wishes, Anne
]]>Comment on Further comments on Scott’s ‘suicide’ by Billhttps://isobelpwilliams.com/2017/11/05/further-comments-on-scotts-suicide/#comment-2025
Wed, 10 Jan 2018 02:13:56 +0000http://isobelpwilliams.com/?p=1278#comment-2025Dear Professor Sienicki and Kristoffer

I was looking forward to a polite, objective chat about the relative merits and limitation of your methodology and Fogt’s. But it is difficult to make a start without knowing if you accept or disagree with the finding that the Antarctic summer of 1911/12 was a season of exceptional weather.

]]>Comment on SCOTT’S ‘SUICIDE’ by Billhttps://isobelpwilliams.com/2015/06/08/scotts-suicide/#comment-2014
Sat, 30 Dec 2017 22:27:19 +0000http://isobelpwilliams.com/?p=940#comment-2014Sorry, I should have said that my previous reply is in response to a comment by Sock Puppet dated 28 December, positioned much further up this thread. I was expecting my comment to follow directly after Sock Puppet’s.
]]>