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Bullish Shorts See Strong Downside History in Trading AMD off After-Hours Earnings

AMD (
AMD
) is expected to report Q3 results tonight after the close. The
analyst mean estimate on Capital IQ is for a profit of $0.02 per
share on $1.41 billion in revenue.

AMD is an issue that shorts watch closely off quarterly results.
The stock has recorded an earnings-driven upside move in the
after-hours in 18 of the last 37 quarters we've tracked. In 13 of
those quarters, it has seen its after-hours gain reverse or narrow
the following regular session, or 72% of the time. In the 19
quarters where AMD has recorded an evening decline, it added to
that downside move during the following day's trading session 13
times, or 72% of the time.

Over the long term, AMD favors a narrowing pattern, either
cutting back or reversing its evening trade 20 times in the last 37
quarters, and seeing flat trade between the sessions in another
instance.

On July 18, 2013, AMD dropped 3.7% in evening trade after
posting a smaller than expected loss and a decline in revenue. The
stock was hit for steeper losses the following day, closing the
July 19 regular session down 13.1%.

On April 18, 2013, AMD declined 3.6% in after-hours trade after
beating Q1 expectations. The stock narrowed its declines the next
day, closing the April 19 regular session off 1.6%.

On Oct. 18, 2012, AMD dipped 0.3% in after-hours trade after
beating on Q3 revenue, beating on earnings, and setting its Q4
revenue view below the Street. The stock was hammered the next day,
ending the Oct. 19 regular session off 16.9%.

On July 19, 2012, AMD declined 3.9% in after-hours trade after
missing Q2 expectations. The stock cratered lower in the July 20
regular session, ending down a hefty 13.1%.

On April 19, 2012, AMD advanced 1.8% in night trade after
topping Q1 estimates. The stock reversed direction the next day,
closing the April 20 regular session down 2.6%.

On Jan. 24, 2012, AMD declined 1.5% in after-hours trade after
just missing on Q4 revenue and beating on earnings. The stock
reversed direction the next day, closing the Jan. 25 regular
session up 3%.

On July 21, 2011, AMD advanced 6.1% in after-hours action after
topping Q2 earnings estimates. The stock soared in the July 22
regular session, ending up 19.2%.

On April 21, 2011, AMD slipped 0.4% in night trade after beating
earnings estimates but also guiding for flat to a sequential
decline in revenue. The stock saw its downside narrow the next day,
ending the April 22 regular session off 0.1%.

On Jan. 20, 2011, the stock slipped 0.1% after a Q4 beat but
guidance for steady to lower revenue for Q1. Shares dropped a
steeper 6% during the following regular trading session.

On Oct. 14, 2010, AMD gained 4.2% in after-hours trade after
reporting Q3 results that were up over year ago levels. The stock
saw its advance evaporate the next day, closing the Oct. 15 regular
session down 0.2%.

On July 15, 2010, AMD advanced 2.5% in evening trade after
reporting better-than-expected Q2 results. The stock saw its gain
evaporate the next day, closing the July 16 regular session down
0.5%.

On April 15, 2010, the stock fell 5% in after-hours trading
despite a swing to a profit that beat the Street view. Shares fell
a milder 3.4% during the following day's regular session.

On January 21, 2010, the stock fell 3.3% in after-hours trading
after a Q4 miss. Shares fell a deeper 12.3% the next day.

On July 21, 2009, AMD plummeted 11.8% in after-hours trade after
reporting a year-over-year decline in revenue and a narrower loss.
It moved deeper in the red the following day, ending the July 22
regular session down 12.9%.

On April 21, 2009, AMD fell 5% in extended-hours trading despite
reporting a slightly slimmer loss than the Street expected and
beating with revenue. The stock fell a reduced 0.9% the next
day.

On Jan. 22, 2009, AMD declined 3.9% in after-hours trade after
missing Street expectations. The stock recorded a sharp reversal
the next day, ending the Jan. 23 regular session up 2.5%.

On Oct. 16, 2008, the stock jumped 10.9% in the evening session
after AMD beat with Q3 results but guides for Q4 results just below
the Street view. The gain was pared to 2.1% the following day.

On July 17, 2008, AMD declined 7.1% in after-hours action after
missing Q2 expectations. The stock turned deeper south the next
day, losing 12.2% by the close on July 18.

On April 17, 2008, the stock managed a slim 0.3% advance in
night trade after the company meets with Q1 results. Shares fell
2.3% the next day.

On Jan. 17, 2008, the stock gained 4.3% during evening trading
after AMD reported a sales miss. The gain swelled to 11.5% the next
day.

On Oct. 18, 2007, AMD clawed 0.3% higher in after-hours trade
after beating Q3 expectations. It couldn't hold on to this slight
gain and closed the Oct. 19 regular session with a deep 5.1%
decline.

On July 19, 2007, AMD jumped 4.5% in after-hours trade after
beating Q2 revenue expectations. It lost that gain the following
day, ending the July 20 regular session down 1.7%.

On April 19, 2007, the stock was up 0.8% after revenues decline
vs a year ago and the company guides for revs in line to up
slightly. Shares ended down 1.4% the next day.

On January 23, 2007, AMD dropped 4.3% in night trade after
beating Q4 sales estimates but guiding Q1 below Street views.
Shares tumbled further the next day, ending the regular session
down 8.4%.

On July 20, 2006, AMD reported revenue shy of expectations, and
the stock declined 3.8% in after-hours action. Sellers hammered the
issue in the July 21 regular session, crushing it 15.6% by the
closing bell.

On April 12, 2006, shares fell 2% in evening trading after the
company reported in line and guided for Q2 flat to slightly lower.
The loss swelled to 10.2% the next day.

On Jan. 18, 2006, AMD advanced to the 37.80 level (no percentage
data available as an exchange trade reporting error that day made
the after-hours percentage data inaccurate). The evening gain
followed better-than-expected Q4 results and flat to slightly down
sales guidance. The stock maintained its upside on Jan. 19, but
buyers scaled back the gains, and AMD closed that day's regular
session at 37.13 (up 8.7%).

On Oct. 11, 2005, AMD climbed 1.3% in after-hours trade after
the company beat Q3 expectations. This upside momentum failed to
hold through the Oct. 12 regular session and sellers punished the
issue between the bells, driving it down 12.5% by the close.

On July 13, 2005 AMD advanced 3.2% in night trade after the
company reported sales flat with year ago levels and a decline in
earnings. It failed to move much in either direction off this
evening level and ended the July 14 regular session up the same
3.2%.

Back on April 13, 2005 AMD advanced 1.5% in night trade after
the company reported a decline in sales vs. a year ago and posted a
loss. The stock saw its after-hours gains evaporate in next-day
trade and ended the April 14 session down 4.7%.

On Jan. 18, 2005 AMD slid 1.8% in after-hours trade after the
company posted a loss, reported revenue just ahead of estimates,
and forecast flat to lower sales. The stock fought its way out of
the red on Jan. 19, ultimately ending the regular session at the
flat line.

On October 7, 2004 AMD reported in line results and the stock
eked out a thin 0.2% rise. Sellers hit the issue hard the next day,
pressuring it 4.3% lower by the October 8 bell-to-bell close.

AMD slipped 0.6% the night of July 14, 2004, after company beat
revenue expectations and reported EPS in line with estimates. The
stock fell victim to heavier downside momentum on July 15, losing
5.6% by the close of trade.

Finally, back on April 14 of 2004, AMD topped Street
expectations and the stock jumped 2.5% in after-hours trade. Buyers
saw those gains disappear the next day as AMD dropped 5.2% by the
closing bell on April 15.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

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