DeMar's 3 pt shot (and what it means for the Raptors)

Lots of updates from summer league. KL has slimmed down. RG has bulked up. Some tall white guys got engaged (here's lookin' at you, MVP). But maybe one of the most significant possible improvements this year won't be known for a while. A central tenet regarding the failure of the construction of this roster is that we have two expensive shooting guards who can't shoot. But what if DD does improve that 3 point shot this year? Everyone hoped he would develop a better jump shot after last off season and he did. A bit of a bump from 10-15 ft (37.9 to 39.1) and more of a jump from 16-23 ft (35 to 40%). If he showed a similar improvement in 3pt% (28.6) as he did in long 2's last year, he would be up to nearly 33%. That's not Novakian but it's the break even point. High hopes indeed but it's possible. If that's the case, would he be considered a legitimate starting 2 guard? Does it make his pairing with Gay that much easier? Does it make everyone else's inside game stronger? Because then you see a team forming.
Lowry should be a legitimate starting PG. Rudy, though paid too much is a legitimate staring SF. JV should be the answer at the 5. The 4? well, if not legitimate, it's not far off. This might be a team worth keeping together. And that's what makes it interesting. Because, if there is no improvement in his 3pt%, then we do have a poorly constructed team. That may be one of the things that becomes clear in the first part of the season that helps Masai decide on whether to grow or blow. Simplistic maybe, but it makes sense.

100% agreed. If DeMar was a threat from 3, the Raptors are a completely different team.

There aren't many players who have managed to improve their range shooting dramatically this late in their careers, though. Jump shooting percentages have a lot of variance year-to-year, more than any other box score stat, but it's exceedingly rare for a guy to go from being as bad as DeMar has been to even decent. I hope he beats the odds (and it seems like he's got the work ethic to have a chance), but I expect him not to.

I think that he has push it to 30-31% for this season, and I would be fine with that. Not a huge threat, but something you need to respect enough to make a difference.

That's like, virtually the same % he had last year. That's not going to cut it.

I want to see DeMar shooting 33-35%. Anything less and he hasn't really made enough improvement. The only way I might accept something lower is if his shooting varies pretty strongly by area, but his corner 3s are very good, like 40%.

A central tenet regarding the failure of the construction of this roster is that we have two expensive shooting guards who can't shoot.

Speaking for myself, its not just that he doesn't have a 3pt shot. Its the lack of overall game, lack of a 'special skill' or being a 'jack of all trades', that his greatest strength is the most inefficient shot in basketball. While him improving his 3pt shot would be great, he has, in my opinion, alot more to improve on than just that.

But what if DD does improve that 3 point shot this year?

I'm of the personal opinion that shooting is the single easiest skill to improve. If there is any area where a player can improve its their range. So should that improvement occur it won't exactly come as a shock. BUT, we also have to accept that some players never do. Demar has only shown the most marginal of improvements in that area (and if you look at the break down of his 3pt shooting, a huge chunk of his increase in % came during a 3 game stretch to end the season - 25% of all his made 3pters for the year came during the final 3 games of the season!)

But more to the question. What if DD does improve? Great! But unless he improves to the point where he is known as a 3pt shooter (and not just an average 3pt shooter), he'll still need to add more to his game.

hoped he would develop a better jump shot after last off season and he did

Demar's mid range did improve from 35% to 40%, but that 40% is the same as his season before. And only 2% higher than his rookie season.

From 10-15ft, while he improved again from 2011/12 to 12/13, he is still down significantly from 2010/11.

I'm not sure thats accurately defined as a 'better jump shot'. Just better than the year prior.

While Demar improving, anywhere, would be great. He's finished his 4th year in the league. He is better than he was as a rookie, but his game really hasn't changed significantly other than he's been given alot more shots. He's still lacking reliable range, still lacking ball handling, still lacking passing, still a weak rebounder, still a poor defender. His game is still based on athleticism, but he lacks lateral speed and agility. He is a large SG, but he shies away from contact to use that effectively.

I know people are going to hate me for saying this, but the passion for Demar (by some - and not necessarily Jclaw, just in general) reminds me of the Bargnani experiment all over again. A hope that someone will become better than they are, but all the evidence showing there has been little improvement, and little reason to believe that any more improvement of significance will happen.

While Demar may well prove me wrong, I'd rather Masai not take the risk and finds a way to effectively move him.

In the final 24 games of the season (Last 2 months) Demar shot 34% (11-32) from 3pt Range.
I think its absolutely reasonable to think this is something he can accomplish on an 82 game span.

Yeah, but variance. A 32 shot sample size is nothing: if he had missed one more shot, he'd be at 31% (BOOOO!), and if he'd hit one more he'd be at 38%(YAAAAY!).

To pick another fairly arbitrary sample, for the months of January, February, and March (a 42 game stretch, more than half the season), DeMar shot 18% (9-50). I think it's absolutely reasonable to think that's something he could keep up for an 82 game span, too.

While I don't think him shooting 34% for a season is unreasonable, over that listed time - in 21 of those 24 games he shot 10% (2 for 20). In 19 of those 24 games he shot 0%.

That's a good point. And also, those three games were the last three of the season, against teams who were already lock into their playoff spots and not playing too hard. DeMar didn't have a 24-game pretty-good-shooting streak; he had (since January) a 48-game 19.6% shooting streak, and then a 3-game 75% shooting streak against disinterested competition. Which seems like it's more sustainable?

Any way you slice it if DeMar becomes a better 3 point shooter it's a good thing, but I'd be happy if he worked on his ball handling and became better at driving/penetrating over improving his 3 point range. Improving both would be excellent.

The "IF" game I think is supposed to bring out the optimism in people, but I think it does the opposite. I believe two years ago before Bargnani's infamous 20 game sample there was an "IF" thread as well and the negative ninny's came out to put in their two cents too (actually I believe I was one of those ninny's as well).

If I wanted to derail this thread I could talk about how his 3pt shooting will most likely not improve, and that he still has to learn to defend, drive to the rim harder, and learn how to dribble better.. but I won't.

If DeMar's 3pt shooting improves to a decent level then that will be awesome. He may even be worth his contract if he does.

Yeah, but variance. A 32 shot sample size is nothing: if he had missed one more shot, he'd be at 31% (BOOOO!), and if he'd hit one more he'd be at 38%(YAAAAY!).

To pick another fairly arbitrary sample, for the months of January, February, and March (a 42 game stretch, more than half the season), DeMar shot 18% (9-50). I think it's absolutely reasonable to think that's something he could keep up for an 82 game span, too.

Or you could remove the first 6 games of 2011-12 and the last 3 games of 2012-13 and take a 136 game sample where he shot 34/184 (20.7%).

Yeah, but variance. A 32 shot sample size is nothing: if he had missed one more shot, he'd be at 31% (BOOOO!), and if he'd hit one more he'd be at 38%(YAAAAY!).

To pick another fairly arbitrary sample, for the months of January, February, and March (a 42 game stretch, more than half the season), DeMar shot 18% (9-50). I think it's absolutely reasonable to think that's something he could keep up for an 82 game span, too.

Fair argument.
All but the part of "arbitrary sample". Its not at all arbitrary. Its the 24 most recent games.
If we are to assume that players improve as the season goes on, then I'd say its fairly relevant to looking at what his numbers could potentaily be next season.

Doesn't matter if he has a few great shooting games interspersed amongst shitty games.
If at the end of the season, his percentage is what it is, then it doesn't matter where or when those shots came from.

That's like, virtually the same % he had last year. That's not going to cut it.

I want to see DeMar shooting 33-35%. Anything less and he hasn't really made enough improvement. The only way I might accept something lower is if his shooting varies pretty strongly by area, but his corner 3s are very good, like 40%.

I disagree. April Fools Gold boosted his % a little bit. Prior to the final 3 games he was not shooting it great. And even then, he never cracked 30%.

Shooting is practically the easiest of all basketball skills to learn. Anyone can learn at any point in their career, I just don't think Demar ever made it a goal of his to become very consistent from 3.

Demar is the type of guy that has to rely on his work ethic to get better because he is not as naturally talented as some players. And each off season he has chosen one thing to improve on and he has succeeded each time.

Fair argument.
All the but the part of "arbitrary sample". Its not at all arbitrary. Its the 24 most recent games.
If we are to assume that players improve as the season goes on, then I'd say its fairly relevant to looking at what his numbers could potentaily be next season.

Doesn't matter if he has a few great shooting games interspersed amongst shitty games.
If at the end of the season, his percentage is what it is, then it doesn't matter where or when those shots came from.

I don't think there's any reason we should assume players improve as the season goes on. But in DeMar's case specifically, here's his 3pt% by month:

Nov. 32.0%
Dec. 29.4%
Jan. 15.0%
Feb. 25.0%
Mar. 14.3%
Apr. 50.0%

There's clearly no upward trend indicating improvement as the season goes on; in fact, his worst month is the second-last.

But I maintain that the choice of 24 games is extremely arbitrary; why 24 instead of 27 or 18? Why not look at post-all-star break numbers (29.7% in 29 games, incidentally)?