Florida's 2020 election: Deflated Democrats have hope. So does the GOP

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Republicans will occupy the three most prominent statewide positions, governor and both U.S. Senate seats, while Democrats have been left wondering how they lost races polls had them favored to win.

Now the focus shifts to 2020. Can the GOP maintain its momentum in the nation's most important presidential swing state? Can Democrats regroup by building on some beneath-the-radar wins that could bear fruit two years from now?

"There are silver linings and warning signs for both parties" looking ahead to 2020, said Susan MacManus, retired political science professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa.

For Democrats, the demographics of a more diverse and younger electorate are "working their way" in favor of a bluer state, she said.

For Republicans, the just-completed midterm elections showed how their effective turnout strategy could work again two years from now, she said. The six counties with turnout above 70 percent – Baker, Collier, Franklin, Jefferson, St. Johns and Sumter – went for DeSantis over Gillum and Scott over Nelson.

Although the political landscape looks overcast for Sunshine State Democrats, the picture isn't entirely bleak for them. And even though Republicans may have to work even harder for a Trump re-election in two years, they have the advantage of a solid structure in place and a candidate who ignites their base.

Much will depend on who wins the Democratic nomination for president. There are plenty of tea leaves for both parties to read today.

Here's why Democrats might bounce back in 2020:

•Though they lost high-profile races, they made gains at the grass-roots level.

Democrats picked up one of the four state offices on the ballot when Nikki Fried won the race to be agriculture commissioner. That may sound like a minor post, but it's the first time a Democrat captured a state Cabinet post since Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink won in 2006.

In what may be a more telling picture of the state trending blue, Democrats gained seats in the state Legislature and in the congressional delegation, flipping seats in battleground areas such as Miami-Dade County.

At the start of this decade, 19 of the 25 members of Congress representing Florida were Republicans. Come January, 13 of the 27 will be Democrats.

•Better-then-normal turnout could portend trouble for Republicans in 2020.

Democrats traditionally struggle to turn out their voters in Florida and around the country. But they did a decent job of generating voter enthusiasm this year. Exit polls suggest minorities and young voters are energized over issues such as gun violence, immigration and health care.

Tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans who fled their home island after Hurricane Maria sat out November's election, according to registration trends. But there is plenty of time for Puerto Rican voters who located to Florida to register, MacManus said. Trump infuriated many Puerto Ricans when he blamed officials on the island for the slow federal response to Maria and questioned the death toll.

•State voters approved a change that should grow the pool of Florida Democrats.

The passage of an amendment to the State Constitution on Nov. 6 will give about 1.4 million nonviolent felons who have completed their sentences the right to vote. Minorities comprise a disproportionately high portion of the prison population, so that's likely to expand the potential pool of Democratic-leaning voters.

It's not clear how many will actually register to vote. Even a fraction could make a difference in a state known for razor-thin margins. Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 by fewer than 113,000 votes out of more than 9.5 million cast, or 1.2 percent.

Derrick Johnson, president of the national NAACP, said he expects they will make an impact in the 2020 election.

“There’s a strong likelihood that the landscape in the state of Florida will change based on candidates truly appealing to the needs and interest of that constituency," he said.

Republicans have their own reasons for optimism:

•Continued control of the Governor's Mansion (and the Legislature) and now both Senate seats means Republicans will enable the party to promote an agenda that dovetails with Trump's policies.

Having the governor in the state be from the same party is a “really, really big help” for a presidential candidate, because governors have powerful statewide organizations, said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Even though the U.S. House is in Democratic control, Republicans have a role to play, said Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Panhandle congressman who is among the president's most ardent supporters.

"We need to defend an administration that's going to be under constant attack," he said. "If the Democrats are able to go up and down the court, scoring uncontested layups, it becomes very difficult for the president. I intend to play a lot of tough defense."

"In a year where we saw states like Arizona and Michigan showed a slightly bluer hue, Florida Republicans continued to demonstrate turnout potential that's really good news for the president," Gaetz said. "The reddest parts of Florida were turning out at a rate of 75 percent and up. It shows that the Trump fire is burning bright red among his coalition."

•Florida has a habit of backing presidential re-elections.

Since Franklin D. Roosevelt's first re-election bid in 1936, sitting presidents have won all but two of their re-election contests: Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H. W. Bush in 1992.

Trump considers the state a second home, given the presence of his Mar-a-Lago Estate in Palm Beach that he dubbed "the Winter White House." That should mean plenty of face time with Florida voters.

•Florida Republicans generally run a better turnout model.

Democrats are known for attracting third-party groups into the state to lead voter registration efforts a few months before an election.

That can lead to a lot of sign-ups but not always turnout. Democrats had more than 4.9 million voters as of Sept. 30, compared with nearly 4.7 million Republican voters, state records show. (That gap has shrunk in recent years as GOP affiliation has risen).

"Republicans are year-round, neighbor-to-neighbor, more grass roots up than top down like the Democrats," MacManus said.