So, there was a blockbuster trade, where the Braves and Cardinals swapped one year of a talented but fragile left-handed right-fielder for a young Southern fireballing right-handed pitching prospect. If you started thinking that the Jason Heyward–Shelby Miller trade is slightly reminscent of the J.D. Drew/Adam Wainwright trade, you’re not wrong.

One main difference is that Drew was older and Wainwright was younger at the time of the trade than their present counterparts: Drew was 28 when traded and Heyward is 25, while Wainwright was 22 when traded and Miller is 24. Heyward has frankly been a much more effective player than Drew: in his five full seasons, he has averaged 136 games played and 4.9 rWAR, while Drew averaged 117 games played and 3.4 rWAR.

On the other hand, Wainwright had just spent the year in Double-A, whereas Miller has already thrown 370 innings with an ERA+ of 111. Wainwright, it must be said, was never quite the prospect that Miller was: before the 2004 season (around the time of the trade), Adam was Baseball America’s #49 prospect, and his top prospect ranking was as BA’s #18 prospect before 2003. Miller, meanwhile, was rated as BA’s #8 prospect before 2012, when he had his first cup of coffee, and as their #6 prospect before his 2013 rookie season, when he finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting.

On the other other hand, Heyward and Drew have slightly different skillsets. Drew played in a very different offensive context — the Steroid Era, to be blunt — but still, his pretrade triple slash was .282/.377/.498, a 124 OPS+, while Heyward’s is .262/.351/.429, a 114 OPS+. On the other hand, while Drew was a fine fielder, with 43 TotalZone fielding runs before the trade, Heyward was more than twice as good, with 98 fielding runs. (They were equally effective baserunners, each contributing nine runs on the bases.)

Generally speaking, hitting ages a lot more gracefully than fielding, because as hitters get older, they get slower but they also gain more power and draw more walks. (“Old player skills.”) Heyward still hasn’t put it all together as a hitter, and most of the value that he has contributed has been from skills that are not likely to age well; this is undoubtedly one of the reasons that the Braves were unwilling to pay what they believed would be the market price for Jason’s services. (Another is that, generally speaking, their owners are skinflints.)

Still, even if Jason Heyward isn’t exactly a sure thing, he’s a pretty known quantity, at least for a year: he’s one of the best players in the National League, even if you’re not sure whether the defensive numbers imply that he should be ranked in the top 10 or the top 30. He immediately makes the Cardinals better for a 2015 playoff push, and, you have to admit, he makes their team a little less hateable in the short term.

Shelby Miller is less of a known quantity, because he had a rough year last year. Tyrell Jenkins is almost a completely unknown quantity, a live arm in High-A with a big fastball who could wind up turning into anything from a workhorse starter to a power reliever to a washout, but his upside is significant enough that he’s worth watching. (Arodys Vizcaino, acquired in the La Stella trade, is two Tommy John surgeries past being considered as a starting pitcher, but he’s another live arm who could help in the pen.)

Anyway, here’s the thing with Miller: he was one of the top pitching prospects in the game before 2012, and then he had a really up-and-down year, pitching terribly in the first half. In late June, his ERA stood at 6.00, and his team tried to tinker with his mechanics and forbade him from shaking off his catcher. And, well, it worked: in the second half, he put up a “2.88 ERA in his last 10 starts, with a spectacular 70/7 K/BB in 59 innings.” He was so good in the second half that BA actually improved his prospect ranking from #8 to #6.

That reminds me of nothing so much as Julio Teheran, the #5 prospect in baseball coming into 2012, when Miller was #8. Julio also struggled in 2012. The Braves tweaked his delivery, too, and he didn’t even have as much of a second-half improvement as Miller. But then he went back to his original delivery, and you remember what happened: he was #5 in the Rookie of the Year voting last year (behind Miller at #3), and this year he was an All-Star.

So all I’m saying is that young pitchers can struggle and then they can figure it out. The Braves are buying low on Miller, and that’s appropriate — we wouldn’t have wanted to pay the price that it would have cost us a year ago. To say the least, it would have cost a lot more than a single year of Jason Heyward. But Miller has very good velocity, he has succeeded at every level including the majors, and the Braves pitching coaches have a track record of success.

That said, his struggles have been diagnosed, and they’re real. His swings-and-misses and his strikeouts are way down. He suffered from shoulder soreness in spring training in 2013, and after he pitched only one postseason inning in October, the team admitted that he was suffering from shoulder soreness in September, too.

That said, his 2014 ended a lot better than it started — from April-July, he had a 4.14 ERA, 81/55 K/BB in 121 2/3 IP, while in August and September, he had a 2.93 ERA with a 46/18 K/BB in 61 1/3 IP. With his fastball, you’d prefer to see something much closer to a strikeout per inning, but getting that K/BB back above 2.5 is absolutely crucial. Eno Sarris thought that part of his renewed success had to do with an increased reliance on high fastballs, and that’s certainly plausible. It’s also very possible that Miller is like Mike Minor, a pitcher whose shoulder soreness did not affect his stuff so much as it affected his command, but after half a season of struggling he finally managed to find his touch again. We’ll see.

There are generally three ways to get pitchers like Shelby Miller into your system: pay them $100 million on the free agent market, trade a boatload of prospects for them, or draft four pitchers like Shelby Miller and hope that one of them pans out. The Braves got themselves a Shelby Miller, and even if he’s not as shiny as he was when he rolled off the assembly line, I think that there are a fair number of reasons to be confident.

That doesn’t mean that this trade doesn’t existentially suck. The Braves didn’t cry poverty and trade Chipper Jones right before he turned into a free agent because they were owned by an eccentric billionaire who made all of his money in cable television and was the biggest private landowner in the United States, and who liked spending on baseball. Now they’re owned by a eccentric cable TV billionaire landowner who doesn’t like spending on baseball, so the team sold one of its best players for scrap. Still and all, the scrap they got back is pretty intriguing.

Published by

350 comments on “Shelby Miller”

I’ve read in a few places that this trade went down without any physical exams and there are hints that both pitchers we’re getting might be damaged goods. Is this just speculation? Miller’s peripherals went south in a big way this past season.

After a day to absorb it I’m ok with the trade. We have to rebuild and there’s absolutely no way we were going to sign Heyward to an extension. You can pick nits about the return we’re getting, but it’s safe to say that this is better return that the draft pick we’d have gotten otherwise. I know it’s not popular with a lot of fans, and I get it, but he was gone after next year anyways. And we’re not winning shit next year with or without Heyward. I think this is making the best of a bad situation.

It’s not necessarily all about the money. The Braves have the money to extend Heyward. They clearly don’t think it’s a good investement. Time will tell.

I know the whole of your argument is more nuanced, and the opinion that we wouldn’t have competed next year with Heyward on the team is a reasonable one, but the “Shelby Miller is a better return than a draft pick” line is misleading.

As Sansho pointed out in the last thread, the return for not trading Heyward this year would not be “a draft pick,” it would be “a year of one of the best players in the league at an extremely affordable price, then an exclusive negotiating window with him, then, potentially, a draft pick.” That’s what we have to believe Shelby Miller was worth more than if we’re going to be happy about it.

@3, the nuance that you aren’t getting is that the Braves flat out didn’t want to extend Heyward. It’s not just about affordability. I mean it is somewhat about that, but they could have stretched and made the numbers work. They might have jumped if Heyward would’ve settled for less, but obviously that’s not ever going to happen – neither now nor 2015 offseason. The takeaway from this whole thing is that they don’t think he’s a cornerstone piece. That’s the front office’s opinion. You don’t have to agree with it. They may be right. They may be as wrong as wrong can be. I have no idea.

@3 – To completely evaluate, it’s Shelby Miller plus about $10 million difference in salaries of Heyward and Walden that could be converted into another player. And if we assume that the role of Erwin Santana is now being played by Shelby Miller, that is another chunk of money that could be spent.

Until we see how (or if) that money is spent, I don’t think we can evaluate yet.

The argument that Jason Heyward is “one of the best players in the league” rests entirely in the quicksand of dWAR for a corner OF. dWAR for a corner OF is so far removed from the locked in evaluation tool that Edward and the like are making it out to be that it’s sort of sad.

We are all sad to see a local favorite and very good player go. I personally would like to return to the days of Ted Turner, when the owner was willing to put up a top 3 payroll in order to keep the folks you wanted and sign the folks you liked. Alas, wishes are not horses.

@6, that’s not what the Braves said. They may be fibbing, but what else do we have to go on? I think Heyward was advised to become a free agent and get the most money possible. Hart said Heyward was willing to do a 2 year deal, which would make sense because it would push him into a traditionally prime year of 27 where he’s more likely to have a monster season.

Yeah, to be clear, I’m not rooting for management or ownership here. I take no joy in our descent into mid-market irrelevance. I just feel that Braves leadership is saying that we want to spend our money in other places. I think you have to reserve judgement until all that plays out.

Let’s say we don’t make any moves and the money all goes to the Uggla/Upton retirement fund. Then I’ll be pissed. But more stuff is going to happen. Let’s see how it plays out.

@9, I think the Braves actions show that they didn’t want to do any deal with Heyward. I’m not saying they are right or wrong, but that’s my takeaway just by judging their actions and ignoring the rhetoric.

The problem with Jason might be that he just got here too soon. He has all the potential in the world, he’s shown brilliant flashes where he’s seemed to attain every ounce of that potential. But then something regresses.

And we started his clock so soon, that the decision came faster than the “arrival.” He very well might turn in to the player we expected him to be. I’m a believer, so I’ll say that he will. But with the bad decisions by Wren, we can’t afford to pay him for his potential, and someone will, and he knows it.

People on the internet are saying a lot of things, and Jason and Hart each said a lot of things. But to me it speaks volumes that, while we were handing extensions out like candy to Andrelton Simmons and Julio Teheran, we brought Jason in and all that got worked out was buying his arb years with no extension of control. We were paying lots of guys for their potential rather than their achievements, and Jason expected the same. Unfortunately, there weren’t enough arb years left to discount the price enough, and the Braves wouldn’t take that plunge, or couldn’t, with the ghosts of BJ Upton and Dan Uggla hanging around.

He never got that break-out, and expecting him to do so before he was 25 was probably a reach. But that’s what happens when you start a guy when he’s 20 or whatever stupid age he was. You just might run out of time. You might have to make the long term decision based on incomplete information. And we just could not, absolutely could not, be hamstrung by another contract if the power never comes or the LHP struggles are real.

I’m sad about it, it’s going to hurt when he breaks out that .290/.410/.550 year as a 28 year old wearing Cardinal red. But it’s the price you pay, I guess.

@15- If you severely under-rate Jason Heyward and severely over-rate Jeff Francoeur, they’re exactly alike. They both came from Georgia and played RF for the Braves.

Jeff Francoeur, fan-favorite, posted an OPS+ of 89 during his full tenure as a Brave. That’s not career, that’s not including his journeyman years. That’s what he produced before the organization finally gave up on him.

Jason Heyward posted a 114 OPS+.

The idea that people compare these players as “much-hyped hometown guys who never lived up to it,” is basically ludicrous to me.

I sorta don’t care too much about examining the return for Heyward – it’s done now. I am quite willing to say that I have no confidence the organization will either spend money or spend it well if they do on offensive replacements. It’s been the weakest part of a good organization for 25 years. That’s not to say they never sign anyone good, but on balance there’s been far more BJs, Caminitis and Brognas than Galarragas. Part of that is due to the fact that more players crap out than make good, but “why” is of little comfort.

Part of the problem with this team over the last few years is that it has lacked any sort of cohesive approach or strategy. I’m not talking about the hitters (though that is also uncomfortably true on more than one occasion.) I’m talking about the team itself. The front office. They’ve been spinning things together with duct tape and bailing wire for a while now, patching holes on the fly by promoting prospects very fast (Heyward, Freeman, Minor, Wood) and then buying high-ish when something falls apart. It’s left the franchise in a mess, top to bottom, and that mess is not an easy one to solve. You don’t fix this without some pain.

Look, I love Heyward’s glove, but, like Francouer, he has a terrible approach at the plate. Heyward’s swing is problematic, to put it mildly. Neither one of those guys has shown that he can make adjustments. Freddie Freeman, on the other hand, has shown that ability, whether it is because of his maturity, work ethic, whatever.

I just don’t see Heyward being much more than a player who had tremendous potential but, for whatever reason, never realized it.

“dWAR for a corner OF is so far removed from the locked in evaluation tool that Edward and the like are making it out to be that it’s sort of sad.”

Really, Sam? A silly pot shot? What is it specifically that I said about defense that you disagree with? I don’t remember having written anything about defense recently; certainly not since the trade was made. As for “the like” you know there’s nobody like me. I think you’re sort of sad for calling me out for no good reason.

Edward, I don’t have a problem with defense. I value defense quite highly, especially up the middle (C, SS/2B, CF.) I recognize that by every available evaluation method Jason Heyward was special as a defender. But there’s no way he is listed as “one of the best players in the game” unless you’re taking his dWAR stats out of RF as gospel, and while I respect his value defensively, I don’t do that. I note that he is being compared to other RF’s, not all OF’s, so his dWAR is going to be higher there then if he played CF (which is where his current offensive profile says he should be.) In short, while I very much liked and like Jason Heyward, and wanted to extend him, and believe he has a breakout season in him very soon, I don’t take seriously the idea that he was a “stealth MVP candidate” last year, nor that he is “one of the best players in the league.”

@19 – See, a big thing you’re missing there, is that Jason Heyward has a .351 career OBP and Jeff Francoeur has a .305, a .308 as a Brave. You’re ignoring that Jason was good, 10% better than the league, and Jeff Francouer was bad, 10% worse than the league. That makes Jason like, a 20% better hitter, to go along with the best-in-the-game OF defense, where Jeff Francoeur was bad.

And a second big thing is, that while every scout and prognosticator in and around the game thought Jason Heyward had tremendous potential, to the extent that he was a consensus number 1 prospect in all of baseball… the only people who thought Jeff Francoeur had tremendous potential were Braves fans. He wasn’t a huge prospect. He was just a prospect who struck gold when he first got called up, and Braves fans, and apparently the organization, bought in to it.

#1 – Agreed. If the Braves wanted to extend Heyward they would have found the money. They did for Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, Kimbrell and (ugh) Johnson.

If the tweets are all true and there is no reason not to believe them, then Heyward and Wren had their only long term extension talks back in 2012 when Jason was coming off of his biggest power year. I gotta think that the number from the Heyward camp was so dang big that the Braves figured they weren’t players for his services any more. His offensive decline in 13 and 14 reinforced the idea that they weren’t going to negotiate. To the Braves a baseline for negotiations was established and they simply didn’t think he was worth it.

I’m ok with the trade. Heyward is a big loss to the team but the return in cost controlled years of a good potentially very good pitcher were worth it.

@19, I don’t think the problem with Heyward is his approach. He’s very selective and has a good eye. His problems offensively are mechanical, and I think Braves hitting coaches managed to exacerbate them.

I hear you. Yes, Heyward put up better numbers as a Brave, but has he developed into a well-rounded player? No, he has not. Health issues aside, he’s either too stubborn or too undisciplined. Hell, his swing is every bit as messed-up as BJ’s! What’s going on there? I hope I’m wrong, but it looks to me like Heyward is headed in the same direction as Francouer. Evidently, the Braves think so too.

Heyward has poor mechanics at the plate, I agree, but why does he try to pull pitches that are thrown outside when he’s already backed far off the plate? That’s what I was thinking about when I referred to his approach.

Sansho, funny, but Chuck James never had a 95-mile an hour fastball. If you’re going to be a two-pitch pitcher, you’d better be able to crank it up. And every pitcher sucks after their rotator cuff turns into dog meat.

@29, I don’t think he’s trying to do that. It’s not so easy to “go the other way” when pitchers are changing speeds on you. Rolling over pitches can be the result of bad mechanics and having to start the swing too early.

There are a lot of comments here but not one has mentioned Tyrell Jenkins. According to Hart he becomes our best pitching prospect immediately and is expected to become a front of the rotation type pitcher.

#3 isn’t entirely correct. In regards to the trade what has more value?
Miller, $10 mil of salary + Jenkins or 1yr of Heyward and 2 of Walden with the chance of getting a draft pick.

Say Heyward has a great year then we most certainly would offer a QO to him, but if he gets hurt then there is a chance he walks for nothing. End of the day, we can still bid for his services next offseason.

Just saying the stat line tracks — flyball pitcher without the K rate that typically accompanies the successful examples of the type, and 20% too many walks. That is an enormous K rate drop from ’13 to ’14, especially given the current environment. Pitchf/x data shows not much change in fastball velocity, but that he threw a slower, loopier curve in ’14 that collapsed in effectiveness. Which IMO doesn’t bode as poorly as a fastball velocity drop, but it was a really bad pitch last year compared to the year before.

Now you’re just spinning to pretend that Heyward’s better than he is, Edward. There hasn’t been a meaningful difference between the AL and NL, when it comes to talent evaluation, for decades.

Jason Heyward is more or less Jacob Elsbury. Shelby Miller is essentially Alex Wood. Would you trade four years of control of Alex Wood for one year of Jacob Elsbury? You wouldn’t if you were smart, or unless you honestly thought you were one mid-tier OFer away from a World Series run. (The Braves were not any single player away from a WS run.)

Spike, et al, re: the lack of quality signings on the FA market: I think the time frame stacks the deck. To “win” on the free agent market you have to be able to buy luxury goods that you know will pan out, or you have to get lucky. The Braves haven’t had an ownership group that plays in that market for more than a decade. That said, the last impact offensive edition, barring one year of Dan Uggla, was probably J.D. Drew.

Organizations that are terrible at producing or signing Ellsburys sometimes have to overpay for them. That’s what this ultimately all hinges on. Liberty will not cover the BJ/Uggla sunk cost because they would rather keep the money required to do so. After taking a few hundred million from the good taxpayers of Cobb for a new stadium, some organizations might have opted to give a bit of that back for a talented player much loved by the fans at a position they have struggled fill historically. It’s certainly their prerogative not to do so, for any reason they like.

If your point is that Liberty is a terrible baseball owner and treats the Braves as a simple subsidiary property whose primary and only bottom line business goal is to make sure John Malone has a zero-sum tax bill at the end of the year, I’m right there with you. Regrettably, I’m a couple scratch-off tickets short of buying the team from him and running it like Ted used, so again; wishes, horses. You knew going in that they weren’t going to “write off” 30m per year as sunk costs, just because the baseball men said they couldn’t play any more. Until Uggla and Upton go away, they’re costs to be accounted for in any reasonable calculus of what the Braves can and can not do with other contracts.

Let’s just say my thirty-plus year rooting interest has been invested in the Atlanta Braves. The Liberty $/Wins aren’t nearly so appealing. And to paraphrase your last, until they go away, it’s something to be accounted for in any reasonable calculus of whether anyone should give a shit going forward or actively root for the team’s failure in the (probably mistaken) hope they will take their money and just go.

Cosign @47. Hating losing Heyward isn’t solely based on emotion (although that’s a big part of it, sure) — it’s also a refusal to stipulate the circumstances, which one might call a crucial difference between fandom and boosterism.

Edward, you want to claim Heyward is one of the “ten best players in the league,” then when pointed out the fact that he’s not quite in the top 50 players in the league, you want to hem and haw about AL vs NL and the DH. The AL is part of MLB, and David Ortiz is a player in MLB. Jason Heyward is a very good player who has the potential to explode into the top 10 if he ever puts it all together. He has not done that to date, and is currently somewhere in the top 50-75, depending on how any year drops.

There is no reason to overevaluate his talent just because he was home grown.

67th best is what actually happened in 2014. It doesn’t predict the future. Corner OF’ers are paid for offense. I’ve said for years that Heyward should be in CF. Frank Wren’s tenure basically shat all over things and made that scenario impossible here. I would wager that he’d have been extended before Freeman if he’d been roaming CF for us all these years.

First off, Ellsbury has been just about the 10th best position player in his league since 2011. So that part is pretty dead-on, and their numbers are remarkably similar. Better defense from Heyward, better baserunning from Ellsbury. Anyway, good comp. Both are among the best position players in their respective leagues.

But there’s a point where the comparison breaks down: How many people think Jacoby Ellsbury will continue to be one of the best position players in the league in 2015? I don’t because he’s 31 years old. It’s much more likely that Heyward’s best years are ahead of him than Ellsbury’s.

But I guess we’re talking about Ellsbury’s past, like when he was heading into his age-29 season. The Red Sox had just come off a 93 loss season. They didn’t move Ellsbury for a cost-controlled somebody. They kept him, he put up a 5.7 WAR season, and they won the world series. And did I mention that Heyward is a.) younger now than Ellsbury was then and b.) has a longer track record of success than Ellsbury had?

Excellent comparison all around, Sam. I like it when you do my work for me.

The league, when I used the word, is the National League, if that’s confusing anybody.

And Krussell only pointed to offensive numbers. You can be skeptical of defensive numbers, but to ignore them entirely in a discussion of the best players only makes sense if none of them ever take the field.

As a fan, I’m filled with pride when I see Heyward’s game-ending catch at CitiField, and I needed to go water my grass when he was interviewed just now on MLB Network. With that said, I have the objectivity to see what they were insinuating when the MLB Network show posed the question of whether or not Heyward would be platooned against LHP. Jason Heyward is a very flawed offensive player. On the Atlanta Braves, he was always going to be a right-fielder, and he didn’t hit enough to maximize his value as a right fielder. If St. Louis plays Heyward in center, that’s great. If Heyward hits lefties well for the first time in his career, that’s great too. Neither of those things happened or could be predicted to happen in Atlanta. One because of him, and one because of natural consequences of decisions the organization has made. No one can change that. The Braves are doing a really good job of making the best out of decisions they feel Frank Wren incorrectly made, and I like the direction they’re heading. If they sign Lester and then flip a SP to get some offensive help, then that’d be great. I also wonder if they could just save the trouble and find that offensive help on the FA market. I can see that the Braves are getting even younger with their trades, and they’re doing their best to shift commodities into areas where they’re thin.

I think we’re trying to evaluate a painting based on looking at the corner of it. We need to see what the team looks like once all of the moves have been made.

I am sad about this trade. Though the Stanton contract basically makes me think there was no way Atlanta was going to pay him, I’ve really come around on Heyward as a defensive player. I’m not sure what bringing in Shelby Miller does for this team in the long term, and moving Heyward makes a bad offensive team look just straight horrible.

I sort of understand why this move makes sense from a money perspective. From a baseball perspective, I think it’s awful. And I enjoyed rooting for Heyward. My guess is he has a very good career, never being considered “great” but being consistently good for good teams. Think Jayson Werth.

Jayson Werth would be a great player to have. Jayson Werth at 7-years, $126-million in 2011 is not quite as good. If Jayson Werth were in the free agent market next year, he would command even more.

The chips are all in on building the farm system and developing young players. That’s the narrative from the FO with the departure of Wren and the re-emergence of the previous scouts and coaches. According to this front office, we’ll see more Chipper/Andruw/Javy/McCann/Glavine players. We shall see.

How do we field a better team going forward? That’s the question we all are trying to figure out the answer to coming off of a losing season. I’m pretty confident that we can’t field a better team going forward by paying guys that are already on the losing team more money. We need some different guys.

This may result in us getting worse. But what we have right now isn’t good enough. So there’s the dilemma. We’re not a better team next year without Heyward, but we might be a better team over the next several years if we spend the $200 million he’ll ask for on several good players rather than putting all the eggs in one basket.

@60, Just spending the $200 million at all would be a start. I doubt that the front office really thinks $200 million for Heyward is necessarily a bad investment. It’s that they don’t have that kind of scratch to begin with.

It’s too frustrating to think about. It’s the kind of thing that makes you resent your parents for making you love this game. Better and probably healthier to embrace armchair GMing, if you ask me.

Never thought I’d see the day when Heyward was drawing comparisons to Jeff Francoeur.

I hate this trade because good teams don’t give away one of the best 20 players in baseball. I hate this trade because I expected Heyward to be a Hall of Famer with an Atlanta A on his cap. I hate this trade because the people of Cobb County just unnecessarily gave a privately owned franchise $300 million for a stadium they don’t need, and this damn team couldn’t give their best player $5 million extra a year to stay and play for his fans. I hate this trade because in a floundering offensive environment, it’s stupid to trade away above-average offensive starters for pitchers.

But the crux of my hatred of this trade lies in the fact that I think Heyward is going to figure it out in the next few years. And that’s no guarantee. He’s been injury prone in his young career. His power and walk rate have gone down since entering the league, and he just posted an offensive season 10% better than league average out of a corner outfield spot. Defense and baserunning are young skills that will start deteriorating soon, maybe faster than we expect. The defensive ratings loved him last year because we had a fly-ball heavy staff, and he got a lot of chances (both things that won’t consistently repeat year-to-year). These are all very legitimate concerns.

I have to believe the Braves did their homework. They disconnected themselves from Heyward’s potential perennial-MVP future and gave him a projection. That projection didn’t match up with what he gets expected to pay. The Braves may very well spend the $20 million or so that it takes to sign him on other, better players. And I’m fine with that.

I hate this trade because I expected Heyward to become the best player in baseball, when the reality is that there’s a greater chance, with his skillset, he becomes mediocre rather than hits that ceiling. For me, it sucks to let go of that dream, and it’s easy to blame Liberty for withholding payroll rather than come to terms with the fact that Heyward may be an average player going forward.

144 players had at least 502 plate appearances last year. 69 of those players posted a total WAR that was less than Heyward’s offensive WAR (2.8). A 70th, David Wright, tied that mark.

This was a down year for Heyward offensively, a disappointing, frustrating year.

He’s probably a platoon player whose last year of free agency the front office sensibly traded for 4 years of an unknown pitching commodity with a poor recent track record, though. So we should all pat ourselves on the back for being so objective about it.

Shelby Miller is not an “unknown quantity,” at least no more so than is Heyward’s ability to hit like a true star. If Heyward had been drafted by STL and Miller by ATL, your entire talk track would reverse.

You think a year of hoping for both a breakout, and an extension, even though the breakout makes the extension too rich for our budget, and the lack of a breakout makes the extension unwise, in a season that we can reasonably project to be “lost” already, is better than four years of control over a guy that two years ago was ranked side by side with Julio Teheran as the best pitching prospects in baseball. That’s emotion, not reason.

Sam, I’m beginning to think Edward is just trolling you. At this point it is probably wise to just stop feeding the trolls. I think you have done a good job of making your point but anything more is probably not going to change any minds that have not already been changed.

Because we will still have B.J. and there is not much hope that C.J. and Simmons will be fixed and we don’t really have much in the way of a 2nd baseman and we don’t have much in the way of budget to fix things that need fixing.

Offensively, that’s 4.5 free outs. To project success with that lineup you have to pretend that Simmons and Johnson are going to rebound to 2013 performances, and that Heyward remembers how to hit 1) for power and 2) LHP. Oh, and that Phil Gosselin can fake it in the Majors for a season. That is with the assumption that whomever is batting eighth is going to be a black hole of suck, and of course the pitcher is an out more often than not.

Yeah, you could have spot fixed maybe one of those holes with the money you got “back” from losing Ervin Santana, but does anyone honestly think that lineup, with a few bench players, plus one mid-tier 12-15m pitcher, was going to compete? Because I do not.

I’m unemotional because I’m a grown man who recognizes that professional sports are not a group of my besties playing stickball in the street. Jason Heyward was a Brave because a couple of teams didn’t think they could sign him for some reason, and he slipped down the board to us. So we drafted him, and ran with his talents (good, very good, and not so good, all in a bundle) for his cheap years. Then we traded him, before he left via free agency. How this differs from Eric O’Flaherty, or Kelly Johnson, or Marcus Giles, I do not know. You seem to think Heyward was about to sign with Atlanta for a hometown discount, just because he tweeted that he wanted to be a Brave. I don’t doubt he wanted to be a Brave and play out the fairy tale on his childhood favorite team, but he wasn’t going to sign for what the Braves had to spend.

It’s a business, man. If you’re not rooting for the laundry, I don’t know why you do much more than play fantasy.

This isn’t like the Hawks trading ‘nique when they were already the best team in the conference. This is a team that needs to rebuild (or re-tool if you want a more moderate term). This is a bad situation and the FO is trying to maximize it…but it’s just a bad situation period. There’s no good solution. This is why Frank Wren was shown the door. It’s a mess.

Stuff like this is also why you have to root for the laundry. If we win the NL with a team full of guys that you don’t know or don’t have a connection with, that’s fine with me. That’s the way the sport is, and has been since the reserve clause was thrown out.

We don’t have enough to compete plain and simple. You can thank Wren for this mess and the farm system being depleted. We did trade our first round pick for Ryan Doumit. We are a 75-80 win team on paper. We may be lucky to finish 3rd in the division. So you don’t keep Heyward around for one more season with as many holes in our lineup as we do. You also don’t keep Justin Upton around either.

Again, we had 3 starters, no bench, and a depleted farm system. You cant let Heyward and Justin walk hoping for a draft pick that may pan out in 3-4 years.

@80
This offseason and whether the Braves will compete in 2015 isn’t near plain and simple. The Braves can choose to compete this year, and I expect they will should Lester sign. Or they can choose to not. I think the plans to compete or not compete weigh strongly on whether Lester signs or goes elsewhere.

I predict that either JUpton or JUpton/Gattis are Mariner(s) come December if Lester signs with the Braves, and some combo of Taijuan Walker, Michael Saunders, Brad Miller, and a prospect or 2 are Braves.

Either the dominoes will fall for the Braves to compete, or they won’t and the Braves will trade the likes of their blue chips for prospects.

The Braves can compete and have the money to do so. Or they can choose to just completely rebuild. A starting staff of Teheran, Miller, Lester, Wood, and Minor would make them extremely competitive. Trading JUpton and Gattis would cost the Braves significant power, but would also bring back Major League ready talent, if the Braves want it to.

Oh, well you wrote in very plain terms that you didn’t know what the difference was. Nice to see you acknowledge that Heyward is a world-class player, backhanded as you had to do it by calling it “residual value”.

Repeat as necessary. Ownership is choosing to put a substandard product on the field. That’s why all this “you have to root for the laundry or just play fantasy” jazz is so much hokum. I love the Atlanta Braves. They have been co-opted for the moment. Noticing this doesn’t mean I have to resign my love of baseball, the hometown team, or my hope that this changes or the ability to them simultaneously.

I’m under the impression that if we get decent pitching, which it seems like we’re doing, anything is possible. I’m consoled by the fact that despite having Upton and Heyward last year our hitting was among the worst in in baseball (Avg 26/30, OPS 27th)- especially for the last month or so of the season. With all the doom and gloom about our hitting I just don’t see us being a whole lot worse than last year. I hope I’m right about that!

Jason Heyward: Not as good as we wanted him to be. Not as bad as some think he is.

He is a great defender, who would probably be top five CF in the game. His decline in power is worrisome. He has always had a massive hole in his swing and I think has tried to overcome it, thus sacrificed his power.

If you move him to center, his value goes up. The fact is he plays a corner spot and that is usually reserved for more pop. The Braves aren’t making up for the power from a non traditional source (2B,CF,SS) They also are giving up power at 3B.

This is a big year for Heyward. Does he live up to the expectations or is he just an injury prone elite defensive corner OF? He is going to have to hit to justify the $$$.

“You can shake a dozen glove men out of a tree, but the bat separates the men from the boys.” Dale Long

Somehow you knew, even back when…comparo, Posey/Jason, their demeanor when a bat’s in their hands, do they look as though they belong in a play off series…one – in his best year – fussed and fidgeted and achieved very little, the other hit line drives…and still does.

essentially the only changes since then have been power, it’s gone – and o yes, sorry, can’t hit left handers any more…it has all been so predictably painful to watch…Gulliver in Lilliput, Prometheus never unbound…With a bat in his hand the guy’s a mess – put a glove on him, put him on first, and there’s no one in the game to compare. Achilles,the thrills he gave.

But they were very right to let him go, hate to say that. He’s in real danger a year or two into a good hitting team ending up as a late innings defensive replacement/pinch runner/pinch hitter and even at that he’d be worth watching. But 20M/25? no bloody way…

It’s all in the head, isn’t it? Out in right field reacting to a line drive mashed at you, realizing on base you’ve got away with that extra half step, your natural superb athleticism springs into action, no time to think, no need to.

The on deck circle though was a nightmare, far too much time to think…and when it was time to take up his position at the plate there was this last, idiotic ‘half swing’ abruptly terminated a third of the way down, then arms and hands dragged inside, then lamely concluded in slow motion…do you know another hitter that does this or anything like it?

Vale, Jason, Vale… my all time favorite Brave. I hate to see you go. But go you will.

Everyone has to understand we are pulling for laundry. My all time favorite Braves growing up were: Murphy, Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, Justice, Blauser and so on. All of those guys played for other teams. It was sad to see them leave and I continued to cheer for them when they left, except when they faced the Braves. Hell, I follow players that have never played for the Braves.

The days of Chipper and Jeter are gone. But even Hank Aaron wasn’t always a Brave. This is why you should only buy jerseys of retired players.

I am pulling to for the front office of the Atlanta Braves in the winter and the players in the summer. I hope Jason Heyward gets a billion dollars to play baseball somewhere next winter. Good for him. I also hope everyone on Braves Journal gets a promotion and doubles their income.

It is along the lines of pulling for Butch Jones to do well for the Vols. If you keep things in that perspective, this all is a lot easier.

As for other bizarre visualization methods, Michael Morse goes through a ridiculous pose-down routine prior to stepping into the batter’s box, and his teammate, Hunter Pence, performs some weird whirligig gyrations while in the on-deck circle, but, hey, they can hit!

We didn’t lose those guys when they were in their primes–except maybe an argument for David Justice, who was 30 when we traded him. The offense in 1996-7 was so different than the offense now it’s hard to say. We acquired Maddux in his prime.

The front office just traded away one of those kinds of guys…but not when his best years were mostly behind him, like in your examples. I hate it personally, and I don’t think it’s a good baseball decision.

Re: Chipper/Jeter.

I’m not so sure. Rollins and Utley are still playing for the Phillies. Votto is signed longterm with the Reds. The Marlins just signed Stanton through his age-38 season. Tulowitzki, Braun, Kershaw, and King Felix are all in long-term deals. Those are just off the top of my head. I think we might be entering a Chipper/Jeter redux.

We had one of the youngest everyday lineups in the league last year — these players whom so many here have decided simply are what they most recently did, they’re still young. To refuse to acknowledge that a young .500 team has even the capacity to contend doesn’t make any sense. We had a crap bench, but that’s just a group of cost-controlled youngsters and one-year contracts that can be overhauled without spending a lot. We got below replacement-level performance from two positions, but those responsible at 2B are gone, and B.J. won’t get another entire year to prove he’s toast. The pitching staff is thin, but no thinner than after Medlen and Beachy went down last year.

#81 – Ryan, I agree. I didn’t state that correctly. I meant to say our roster (before Heyward trade)couldn’t compete. We had 3 SP’s, no bench, and a terrible offense. I think we can get enough pieces in return this offseason through trades (Gattis and Justin) to fix the rotation and bullpen and we should have the funds to add some pieces via FA that will allow us to field something that can compete.

Ah, Andruw Jones, another great player we kept through his prime years.

Heyward’s not in a class with Maddux. He has already been better than Blauser. I think it’s well within his ability, as demonstrated so far, to put up careers like the worst of the rest (Justice, Murphy). He’s there if he has another five seasons like the five he’s already played.

Or did you mean the guys on other teams with the big contracts? (Serious question.)

Edward, I don’t know why you keep throwing every metric in the book to support your stance that Heyward is one of the best players in baseball. The Braves didn’t think so and that is a fact.
The Braves dangled him out to all of MLB and the best they could get was Shelby Miller and a high upside prospect. Lets not forget that as part of that deal they had to include an effective if fragile set up pitcher. So lets conclude that MLB also thinks that Heyward is what he is, a very good, high potential player.

The Braves FO did a good job on this trade. They read the tea leaves correctly.
Scenario:
1. Heyward hits like he has been trending. Still plays fantastic defense, still runs the bases, still gets on base, but hits with little power and is useless against lefties. Braves make a less than super star level offer. Heyward, still only 26 and thinking he has a 100 + million payday in his future wants to leverage his potential for the big contract. The Braves are in a quandary about whether to even make him a qualifying offer. From their point of view do they pay him north of 16 mil for yet another year to reach his potential? Either way, Heyward walks. Braves get a draft choice.
2. Heyward puts up a stellar year offensively. Braves make a qualifying offer because they cannot pay the going rate for a superstar. Heyward walks. Braves get a draft choice.

The way I see it, the Braves had no choice. Miller and prospect are worth more than a draft pick. This was played by the Braves the way it should have been played.

Finally if there was consensus that Heyward is, as you say one of the best players in baseball don’t you think that the Braves would have made him a priority over Freeman? Even if the offers didn’t match up don’t you think they would have leaked that Heyward turned down a 125 – 140 million dollar contract to placate the masses?

This season will be the test. If the Cards make a pre season offer in the 20+ avg per season to Heyward, then I stand corrected. The Cards are one of the more astute organizations in baseball, its going to be interesting.

The Cardinals are the absolute perfect destination if you are rooting for Heyward to reach his offensive potential. Personally, I will be rooting for the Cardinals to lose all their games, and for the new-look Braves lineup to score more runs.

The Phils would move Rollins or Utley if they could. Preferably Rollins. The Reds are desperate to get out from under that Votto contract now that his body has crashed in year one. That Stanton deal, if he doesn’t opt out of it and leave asstons of money on the table in a few years, will drag the Marlins down for years to come.

Well I don’t show up here to just agree with everybody and the front office on whatever they do. This is a pretty great venue for dissent and discussion.

Re: Freeman over Heyward/consensus

The fact that an opinion is held by a consensus just means more people agree with it than don’t, not that it’s a more sound opinion. The consensus had BJ Upton’s contract with the Braves as an astute signing.

In this instance, I don’t agree with the consensus. I’m not sure it was an either/or scenario with Heyward and Freeman, but if it was, I’d have picked Heyward.

I’m with Edward on the emotional side, it’s beyond shitty that Heyward is gone and we’re left with BJ and CJ and Fredi Fucking Gonzalez. There’s just all kinds of wrong here. But I still think it was the proper move to make given the state of the franchise.

I don’t know that Freeman’s the better player. I know that he’s the safer bet. And a mid-market club with a relatively constrained payroll, a quarter of which is still being eat alive by Dan Uggla and BJ Upton, probably has to take the safe bet.

I think Jason Heyward wanted to stay in Atlanta. I would have loved – LOVED – to have extended him. But I think he wanted 20m per, AAV, or better, and I don’t think the Braves are in a position to do that deal. Clapping louder will neither bring Tinkerbell back to life nor make BJ Upton’s contract go away.

The pitching staff is thin, but no thinner than after Medlen and Beachy went down last year.

That’s a weak bet, hoping you’ll stumble upon another Aaron Harang 2014 for a single mil in “what the hell.” I mean, they signed Chen-Ming Wang to a minor league deal. Are you comfortable that he will cover off 2015 as well as Harang did 2014? I have…doubts.

No, it means that “a bunch of people think so” is not a very persuasive argument, or a particularly intellectual one.

The counterarguments to my position that work best, even if I disagree with them, are that the team will not be competitive in 2015 no matter what, that there is concern that Heyward will regain his ability to hit lefties, that Shelby Miller is a wonderful player, and that Heyward’s skills are more likely to be negatively affected by aging and injuries than a player like Freeman.

@112 – The Braves are only in a position to not do that of their own choosing. Hence Spike’s real truthful argument that current ownership gives less than half a shit about the fanbase that it’s parasitically sucking dry and leaving behind in two years for a new host body and should be abhored as the pest it is. Hence my argument that eff the Braves, since they’re currently singing in real close unison with ownership.

a relatively constrained payroll, a quarter of which is still being eat alive by Dan Uggla and BJ Upton,

And here we have the crux of the matter, and my beef. This refusal to allow reasonable opex and permit the product to suffer based on mistakes that had to have been signed off at the very highest corporate level is bullshit. You freaking write it off, take the topline hit and move on. Making your customers suffer for your organizational incompetency is not an optimal marketing strategy.

Secondary beef – Trading assets that have potentially massive value ceilings and corresponding bust potential for ones that have a narrower but lower deltas is a great way to ensure you’ll never have one pan out. There’s an opportunity cost to getting a player with Heyward’s ceiling that is being patently ignored in this discussion – it’s a fairly rare occurrence for any side, and for one with the Brave’s draft record/policies, even less so.

@113
It’s certainly no guarantee, but neither would I make the likelihood of getting league average work from a fourth starter the deciding factor on whether or not to punt the season. The 2015 roster could have retained the lion’s share of the front line positive contributors who were good enough to reach the postseason in 2013, with not a single age-related decline concern in the mix, and without Uggla or BJ to drag them down. That choice was wholly available to them.

I am sympathetic to spike’s arguments @116, but will caveat that the highest level opex signoff for the Upton and Uggla contracts was Frank Wren. I’m sure Schuerholz had some review of those operational decisions, as President, but I strongly suspect he was more involved with prepping Tim Lee and the Cobb County Board of Commissioners for crucifixion than with player eval, acquisition and contracting. The operational control for those elements lie distinctly in the office of the General Manager, and the general manager who made them was fired for his work.

Liberty Global sets an operational budget and a margin call that they have to meet every quarter or year. John Malone has no more interest or input in the Braves than that.

It’s entirely possible that they wouldn’t have kept Heyward even if there wasn’t a BJ Upton saga. If you don’t think he’s the guy to build around then trading him before he walks is the right thing to do. I’ve been trying to make this point the whole time. The Braves don’t want Heyward. They didn’t even try hard to sign him. It’s not all about the money. It’s about performance and their projections of future performance too. They might be dead wrong about this, but I think this is the way they see it.

So it makes sense to wait and see. For all that trading him sends a TERRIBLE signal about ownership’s commitment to fielding a competitive product, Heyward is not the be-all, end-all.

@117, spike’s line of argument is more persuasive to me. The lion’s share of 2013 contributors you cite is missing Medlen and Hudson. Maybe you can spin a scenario where we replace them staying within the budget or avoiding trading a significant part. There’s still the problem that a few of those 2013 contributors look to have been playing over their heads — again, perhaps not, though.

@98. Except that it was widely acknowledged even at the time that Andruw gave us a hometown discount when he signed to stay with us. All indications are that Heyward had no such inclinations. But even if he was willing to give a slight hometown discount it appears his baseline was valuing his worth, not on his performance, but on his potential. And he hasn’t matched his perceived potential as much as Andruw did at the time. The Braves probably know better than any of us his value to the franchise but they simply can’t do the contract Jason wanted. As much as I enjoyed watching him in the field and on the bases, I don’t blame them at all.

RE: the Andruw extension, he quite literally walked into John Schuerholz’s office with his dad, and WITHOUT Scott Boras, and said let’s get this done.

RE @127, we know about as much about what Heyward’s agent was asking as we do about what the Braves offered and what Heyward wanted. Which is to say, little more than rumor and hearsay. We do know that John Hart, who has been *exceptional* about extending young talent over the course of his career, and who made a huge splash of extending Heyward’s teammates last season, read the signals as “this guy wants to be a free agent.”

@114 – My point is that currently Heyward’s market value is a number 2/3 starter and a prospect and to get that we had to throw in another player. One of the best players in baseball would have commanded more.

@127 – You are right, we don’t know anything. But what is known is that Wren and Heyward’s agent had a 5 minute discussion in 2012 and the Braves chose to extend other guys. The inference is that team and player were far apart on money.

edit: I think that the 20 million number is used by some most here because that seems to be the bench mark for elite salaries.

Sam, I think that if the Braves thought Heyward was worth 20AAV they would have found the money. I think that is where you and I differ.

Either they don’t believe in him, or they believe that they can afford to cut ties with him because they have other internal options — which you could interpret as a vote of confidence in Carlos Martinez.

This trade doesn’t mean that the Braves gave up on Heyward, it just means that they thought that he was worth more to them as a trade chip. It also doesn’t mean that the Cards gave up on Miller, it just means that they desperately needed a right fielder and they were willing to pay this particular price.

Sam, i was wondering about that, hope you’re right, you likely are…there needs to be something, surely, to feed the psyche when you take the trip he has these last few years…the most feared reliever in baseball, filthy,fans adored him, you couldn’t take your eyes off him if he was on the mound…but three – not one, not two, three…

When Billy Wagner was so happily with us i don’t remember him as being particularly voluble, he didn’t seem to say a great deal in his final year. But if someone cranked him up about Jonny, boy, he was off and running…talking about that sinker, he couldn’t stop laughing at what he saw on the hitter’s face…he had played a part in its creation, surely? His the accrued wisdom, Jonny the delivery system, a million dollars to lose something that special in such a painfully extended way seems about right to me…

Had a happy thought last night thinking about all this…Billy is in contented family retirement somewhere around these parts in Appalachia…bet if someone called and asked him nicely he would let you come over with your bourbon and talk about Jonny, can you imagine the stories…

They in turn would give you your story…there’s a piece there, waiting to be written…Alex?! Christ, there might even be a book. As a symbol, a metaphor, sea to shining sea, the million dollar arm.

The Braves signed Venters for 1,625,000 for 2014 busted arm and all. He was on his second TJ. A nice gesture by the team. I can see him landing on ESPN or somewhere. Hell maybe he can take Joe Simpson’s place

#156 – Yep, its a noon meeting. I had predicted 6/$132, but it appears Boston offered around the same figure that you are mentioning. Having Lester-Teheran-Wood to start off the rotation would be a nice addition.

@166
Lester has averaged 32 starts/year for 7 straight years. That’s remarkable in this day and age. Obviously due to the length it’s risky, but a 6/120MM contract is asking Lester to be a 3.5 WAR player a year. That’s a good deal.

We Braves fans are really balancing on the edge right now. On the one side is the worst Braves lineup I’ve seen in decades and a bleak 2015 outlook, and on the other side it’s raining great pitchers and the offense maybe doesn’t even matter. Interesting times. Sign me up for Lester and Taijuan Walker. I could live with that.

#171 – We are trading players now who will leave via FA after next season and we are trying to build a pitching staff. As for the offense, its definitely a concern. But we cant send out a rotation of Teheran, Wood, Minor, AAAA fillers and then watch Heyward/Justin walk for a draft pick.

Alex Wood, Shelby Miller, and Taijuan Walker are guys with significant risk of not living up to their potential, and Jon Lester is a guy with significant risk of not being worth either his dollar value on his own terms or in relation to the team’s financial flexibility going forward.

So it would be going all in on pitching with a lot of question marks, which is something I can’t see us doing.

Edit: That’s why the Jon Lester thing doesn’t make any sense with regard to what seems like the FO’s plan. Acquiring Taijuan Walker and Shelby Miller fit that plan without Jon Lester. Shelby Miller and Jon Lester without giving up Upton and Gattis fits that plan.

Wait, so we’re talking to him just to make it look like we’re trying? I don’t buy that at all. Our fans are going to completely tune out if we field a garbage team next season. We can easily afford him. Should we risk 6 years for a pitcher with a load of miles on him…that’s the bigger question.

It is completely hilarious to watch everyone trying to talk themselves into this being a good team in 2015. The offense, that terrible wretched thing that should’ve been put out of its misery half way through last year was, in fact, made worse in multiple ways in the last month. IF Bethancourt hits at all, it will come as a complete surprise to nearly everyone. Heyward’s not around to get on base and score from first on anything hit to the outfield anymore. There basically isn’t a second baseman, though the offensive contribution of just conceding an out whenever the 2B’s turn to hit comes up might be less destructive than the double play some stiff would’ve hit into had we fielded a player in that position. Either JUpton or Gattis is almost certainly going to Seattle in the next couple of weeks. The esteemed front office is blowing smoke up everyone’s ass when it talks about being good in the short and long term. Long term, sure, maybe. Short term – no way, absolutely not. May the tuning out begin.

@163
Llamas would be a more obvious symbol, as they were domesticated to be heavy load bearing beasts of burden. Alpacas were domesticated specifically for their beautiful fleece, so more like Bronson Arroyo than Venters. They were used for ritual sacrifice though. Maybe you can work with that.

The Braves have money to spend THIS year (about 22-25 million, as of now). They have money to spend NEXT year. They have money to spend for the foreseeable future. It’s possible to sign Lester and not sacrifice the future of the organization.

@Edward
Name a pitcher that doesn’t have risk and I’ll give you a hundred reasons why said pitcher is risky.

The Braves can’t continue to operate as a cheap chickenshit organization because BJ Upton and Dan frickin’ Uggla didn’t work out as free agents. How ’bout the Braves rename the team the Atlanta Ebeneezers, put out a team of crappy Cratchits, pay them pennies, and watch them produce a bunch of Tiny Tim numbers. Darkness is cheap.

Ryan, if we go all the way with this, and there isn’t something more, we’ve got huge holes at three of the four outfield/catcher spots, second base, and third base, not to mention a short stop who isn’t a great bet to be an average hitter. 7 out of 9 positions in the batting order are either vacant or prayers.

It’s in that context of total decimation that the pitcher risk thing takes on a much greater importance.

I’ve read online — from fans, not reporters — that the Braves should backload a potential Lester contract post 2017. Reading those comments got me wondering: how high do we think the payroll will rise after the new stadium?

Is there any reason to think it’ll be that much higher? My person expectation is that it’ll rise, but probably not much higher than the Nationals (134 millionish) due to the similar circumstance of a newish stadium and their equally bad TV deal. What does everyone think?

What we should do is keep our 79 win team together, replace Harang/Santana with Hale/Medlen, and go to battle. Hopefully we will be lucky enough to get a draft pick for Heyward and Upton next year. Short term mediocrity and long term despair.

@194
Trade of Walden and Heyward likely puts the Braves payroll, after arb-salaries, pre-arb salaries, and guaranteed contracts, right under 90 million. Braves payroll is supposedly going to be no less than last year’s 112MM and no more than 120MM.

Signing Lester is doable. Trading JUpton is necessary. Acquiring Taijuan Walker and complimentary pieces from the Mariners is doable. Trading Gattis isn’t necessary but should happen if the Braves don’t intend him to catch. Trading Minor if Lester and Walker are brought in can help the replenishing process and put more money to fix weaknesses.

I think we kissed being competitive in 2015 away when we traded LaStella. :)

Edward, the irony is that I wanted to keep Heyward and go for it in 2015. But then when it became clear that the Braves weren’t going to cut BJ and spend any more money I figured we were in rebuilding mode.

But now that I think about it, I don’t like this deal. We’re selling 60 mil of contracts for 50 mil (Uptons for Hamilton). We’re giving an all-star level season of Justin Upton for a declining season (or two) of Hamilton. AND we’re throwing in Sims as if this pot needs sweetening. I’d go both Uptons for Hambone with no prospects.

@223 Agreed. Don’t get it at all. Heyward I didn’t like, but it made sense. JUpton I won’t like, but it’ll make sense. Gattis makes no fucking sense. He costs nothing. We can’t be tossing away offensive production that costs nothing and expect to compete.

Id much rather throw Bethancourt into a trade deal than move Gattis. The front office has to be concerned with what they saw from Bethancourt last season. He can’t hit and his defense looked attrocious IMO.

I could get behind a Bruce acquisition. He was sort of the proto-Heyward, though that heart-hole will remain vacant for a while regardless of who we get. What’s the consensus on Tomas? My feeling is if the Phillies think he has defensive question marks then everyone else should run screaming. I’ve also heard his bat isn’t on the level of Cespedes or, certainly, Puig, but I don’t have any substantiation for that.

Yeah, I have to say that I saw Sam’s talk about the Braves signing Tomas as a pipe dream, but it’s clear that they’re serious about at least trying to get him. Good for them! Fan base really needs a demonstration that they’re committed to the team’s future right now.

There seems to be a pattern and that pattern will likely continue. This is the sole reason why I think the Braves are going to go hard after Jon Lester as the emphasis early on is to stabilize both Minor and Major League pitching. From there, the Braves will turn to offense.

Still don’t get why the Braves would do this then leave both Martin and Graham unprotected for the Rule 5 draft. Maybe something’s a-brewing.

I get why folks are reluctant to deal Gattis — after all, I own and regularly wear ” rel=”nofollow”>this shirt — but I’m just not sure he has a position in the NL. It’s entirely possible that he’s more valuable to the Braves in a trade than he is in uniform.

@238
I get that, and it could be true. However, it doesn’t address why the Braves still have Constanza, Brandon Cunnif, and Yean Carlos Gil on the 40-man and leave off the pair. Whether Graham is broken or not is debatable, but Martin has been as good as any pitcher in our Minor League organization and was even drawing heavy trade interest last year. Not putting Martin on the 40-man is a huge oversight that hopefully gets addressed soon.

Here’s clarification of a Rule-5 Draft rule that I didn’t understand…

Can any Minor League player be drafted?

“No. Players who were signed when they were 19 or older and have played in professional baseball for four years are eligible, as are players who were signed at 18 and have played for five years.

All players on a Major League Baseball team’s 40-man roster, regardless of other eligibility factors, are “protected” and ineligible for the Rule 5 Draft.”

We’re very unlikely to trade Gattis. The rumors regarding trading Gattis date back to Frank Wren. At the beginning of the offseason, John Hart himself said it doesn’t make sense to trade a bat with 4 years of service left, and keep two with only 1 year each. That was the interview in which he stated we’d be moving an outfielder and making room for Gattis in LF.

That said, it’s not impossible that they find a deal that makes sense, as the club has demonstrated that they hate his glove. But Hart was motivated to move Heyward and Upton, he’s not motivated to move Gattis.

We’re hosting one of those USAU coaching clinics next month in Athens. I don’t know if you still know folks in the western part of the Carolinas, but if you do, I’d appreciate it if you pass word onto them.

Walden was the cause of most of the wild pitches. How’d we pitch overall last year? I’d say we did OK. Gattis’ pitch calling and framing can’t have been that bad. Our staff had a good year, and he caught a fair share of good innings.

Bethancourt’s defense looked worse to me, btw. If we trade Gattis we have to get a catcher back, or find one somewhere else.

I was going to post something similar, but then I noticed the wild pitch count right next to it. There were 50 of them on Gattis’ watch. I’m not sure how many of them could have been stopped.

I’m also not sure how typical that number is for a major league catcher this day and age. Bethancourt watched 17 wild pitches go by in his innings, which were about a third of Gattis’. So they’re about even there.

If the Braves trade Justin Upton and Mike Minor for Taijuan Walker, Michael Saunders and Brad Miller, then sign Jon Lester and Yasmani Tomas, will the blog be satisfied? Honestly, it could happen. It’s not likely, but possible.

@267, why would peraza suck? I think his skills translate extremely well to MLB. top notch speed, high contact rate, elite defense at 2B? No power or walks, but I don’t think it’s necessary for that spot.

Moncando is a AA level infield prospect. Any of the three non-Freddie positions, though SS is closed off pretty well too. Tomas is a big hitting power bat in LF, who is also willing (though “able” is a question) to play 3B, per his agent. He may stick in the Majors upon signing, depending on the team he inks with (he’d probably open 2015 as a corner OF for the Braves) but he might need a season of adjustment at the AAA level in a “best case” scenario.

Yep. His upside is Justin Upton. His more probable similar player is…Evan Gattis. More raw power than Upton, less OBP. Plays a much better defensive OF than Gattis. Doesn’t cost the 25m that Justin’s going to command next year.

So, I was re-reading some of my recaps this afternoon, to kill some time. I recapped the Reds game where Minor took a no-no into the seventh, and apparently I complained about his four walks. Then I added, “but that’s like complaining Giselle Bundchen is only 5′ 11″ tall.”

Anyway, it’s apropos of nothing in particular, but I thought I’d share that bon mot with you again.

284: He hardly “dominated.” A 121 wRC+ at AA is good, especially given how young he is for the league, but Steamer translates it (in his specific case) as an 81 wRC+ if he were to play next season in the majors. Basically, he has no patience and no power, and there’s little reason to think he will develop either of those qualities. His defense raises his floor, but probably only to “utility infielder.” If he can’t maintain a very high batting average, that’s all he’ll ever be. Not that I’m unhappy that the Braves have him in their system, but the fact that he’s their top prospect speaks volumes about what a terrible farm they have right now.

@273, I’ll admit that saying Peraza will probably suck might be a tad harsh. I have low expectations…let’s leave it at that. Speedy guy with high babip in the minors…all I’m saying is buyer beware. Minor league defenses suck. Those ground balls to short are outs in the majors.

Peraza’s best quality, and it is a significant one, is age relative to league. That’s no guarantor of success — Andy Marte is an age-relative-to-league bust — but it’s a hell of a good marker. Young hitters pretty much always get better; there are no sure things, but it’s one of the surest things there is. At this point in his brief career, Peraza’s youth is even more important than his performance.

@288, they aren’t all outs if you’re fast enough. If he can get an extra 15 infield hits a year, over 600 at-bats, that’s 25 points of batting average.

Would you pay $100 million for a slap hitting guy that needs a platoon partner? I think that’s close to how they see things. Again, I’m not saying “they” are right, but it sure looks to be an accurate assessment of their view of the world right now.

Sorry for off-topic, but I just got done watching Gm.2 of the 1991 NLCS. WHAT a great game that was. Of course we all know how brilliant Avery was in that Series, but it was so beautiful to watch it just now. Best scene has got to be when Bobby let’s him face Bonds in the 9th even though he just gave up a leadoff double to Bonilla. Bonds pops out and slams his helmet and his bat twice.

$100 mil player doesn’t mean anything. Someone recently called Matt Ryan “a million dollar quarterback”, which is less than he makes per game. If Hart’s comments are correct, Jason was looking for either very short (2 yrs) or very long contracts, which makes total sense. If he became a FA at 26 he would give himself another year to have a breakout year and could lock in 2 high salary years without risking a bust season. I’m sure it didn’t go like this:

J. Upton for Walker wouldn’t likely happen without other pieces. Giving the Ms Minor in return makes a lot of sense, but they’d have to give back something as well. I might be being a bit optimistic in suggesting the Braves could get both Saunders and Miller but neither are in high standings with their club.

@319, You’ve got to help me here. Heyward not worth $100 million — the definition of insanity, right? This should be the kind of thing that tells you there is something very, very wrong with your baseball club.

@317, Exactly. What Hart is saying — which is the opposite of what he says he’s doing, re: Lester — is that the real market is the arb/extension market, and we will essentially never compete for a top line FA. “The Braves Way.” People realize that a bad 2015 is still going to net Heyward at least $160, based just on past production, his age, and his massive potential, right? A good year will put him over $200 or $220 for seven or eight years, and he’ll be worth it for much of the contract.

I’m not going to attempt to move Braves Journal past its collective recency bias, re: his platoon split, or quibble over dWAR decimal points. But it’s just crazy to say he’s not worth $100 million. I don’t know why any FA wouldn’t just cross us off the list.

Pretty sure Free Agents will care more about how the Braves value them in the marketplace than how they value Heyward, dWAR, etc. I’m not disagreeing with your main point re: Heyward’s value, but the horse is starting to decompose. I also think “$100M player” is easier than saying “140-175 million depending on his 2015”

This reminds me of an old SNL skit about a flamboyant country singer. “He tried to take country music into a bold, new direction. But he learned a hard lesson — never try to take country music into a bold, new direction.”

So, the Boston Red Sox have made an offer to Sandoval and Lester. They obviously think they can revamp and compete next year and have the money to do it. This brings to light something that could happen. Could the Braves aid them in their efforts while, also, getting better ourselves short and long term?

J. Upton and Victorino are the 1 year trade outs saving the Braves 1.45 million in ’15.

B.J. and Craig are the bad contract swaps saving the Braves around 20 million over the next 3 years, and Craig has more versatility as he can play 1st, 3rd, 2nd, and corner OF. Plus, if he works out, he does have a team option in ’18.

Gattis and Hale for Holt and Cecchini are the young controllable talents that each team needs.

Gattis provides them catching power now and an eventual replacement at DH for the 39 year old Ortiz since Gattis is under control for several more years. We get Holt who is an amazing ball player. He can play anywhere, hit anything, and run the bases great. He loses some of his value for the Red Sox with Sandoval blocking up 3rd and the OF having tremendous depth. Plus, the Mookie Betts being as good as he is means Holt will be losing some of those platoon at bats.

Hale provides them a 5th starter or long relief which they need, and Cecchini provides us another young bat who can play 3rd, corner OF, and possibly 2nd. Cecchini is only a possibility because of Sandoval who basically blocks Cecchnini for several years due to their OF depth and sealed up 3rd and 2nd base spots.

Sandoval signing would be the key to this trade. It would never happen unless the Red Sox sign him. There are obviously other players that could work in, but the big emphasis here is that the Red Sox could be the team the Braves have been waiting for to take care of our needs as well as get rid of B.J.’s contract.

Yes, this is a dream, but it does open up another team trade wise aside from the Mariners.

I think there’s value in having Upton’s money off the books in 2016, but not really in 2015–they can lose with him or without him, and that $15 million is not the difference. I would only like to see them move B. Upton or Johnson this offseason if the market completely fails to develop for J. Upton and Gattis and they end up facing a situation where they’re stuck with a choice between a passel of garbage prospects on the one hand versus no real prospects but significant salary relief on the other hand.

@328
theres no way to determine that without knowing what the Braves would be acquiring in that package. If trading JUPton, Minor, Heyward, Walden, and La Stella frees up the money to sign Tomas and Lester, and also brings in some serious prospects, another starting pitcher, and an infielder or 2, then the Braves just turned 12 years of control into 30, or more, without sacrificing 2015.

I don’t think Jenkins made many top 20 prospect lists for the Cards. He’s got stuff but is pretty raw. So on its own you’ve got Walden for a mid-level prospect. Is Walden worth more than that? I dunno. He doesn’t pitch enough to be worth all that much.

Shelby Miller was at the top of the Card’s prospect list for several years. That’s a pretty nice return for one year of Jason Heyward. If we’re lucky this will be the Wainright deal in reverse.

I don’t think you can split the deal into Heyward-Miller and Walden-Jenkins. Imagine it more as, after Heyward Miller, we owed the Cards a couple bucks, and so they asked for a five buck player, and we had to get a 2 buck player and we called it even.

“Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez visited with Van Gundy after the [Hawks] game. The two became friends when Gonzalez managed the Marlins and Van Gundy coached the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic. After his postgame news conference, Van Gundy said ”Maybe Fredi has some answers. Maybe we need to bunt more!'”

330: They’ve already traded Heyward, La Stella, and Walden, and are currently looking worse for 2015 than when they started. To turn Minor (an above-average starting pitcher) plus Justin Upton (an above-average outfielder) plus the money that would otherwise have been allocated to the traded/departed players into a 2015 team that’s more talented than the inadequate 2014 team is essentially impossible. If you throw in another $30 million in 2015 payroll, it’s probably quite possible, but Liberty Media isn’t going to throw in another $30 million in 2015 payroll.

It’s also becoming clear why Fredi wasn’t fired – he’s been promoted to head scapegoat for the two years (at least) of atrocious baseball to come. I’m betting the ultimate play is to announce Chipper as manager the same year they move into the new shopping mall. Former superstar players with no management experience is the major recent trend in manager hires, after all.

“It’s also becoming clear why Fredi wasn’t fired – he’s been promoted to head scapegoat for the two years (at least) of atrocious baseball to come.”

I’d be fine with that. Gonzalez shouldn’t still be around, after his second September collapse. So if they’re not going to fire him now, keeping him around to take the blame for the upcoming mediocre year(s) of baseball seems a fitting punishment.

The Braves have fully convinced me that with the state of the minors they couldn’t just continue on like before hoping to somehow get lucky enough to win the wildcard one day. I think they’re doing the right thing, but it’s risky. My guess is they’ll be about the same as last year, possibly slightly worse. I don’t think a scapegoat is needed as long as we show improvement.

If you let Teheran eat innings the first few months and stick with the plan to provide an extra day of rest whenever possible, you're less likely to end up in a position where you may need to limit the younger arms down the stretch