What percentage of plays on 4th down result in a first down for offenses?

IlovetheChiefs

02-02-2008, 06:20 PM

I'm not sure. But I think the success rate is higher on 4th and short (like inches, 1 yard, 2 yards) than it is for 4th and long (like 10 or 15 yards). Heh!

It SEEMS like 4th and short works about 40-50% of the time and 4th and long (when they have no choice to go for it because of the little time remaining) works less than 20% of the time.

So maybe about one third of the time overall. Total supposition on my part, though!

IlovetheChiefs

02-02-2008, 06:29 PM

Oh but wait, I found an article from October 2004 that said this:

"The NFL's 32 teams have converted 70 of 128 fourth-down tries (55%) vs. 53 of 116 (46%) in the same period last season."

Guess it could very well be at or near 50% then.

How about how often is the on sides kick successful? That would seem like only about 10%.

IlovetheChiefs

02-02-2008, 06:38 PM

And just found a stat on the on side kick too: "23% of onside kicks were successful (12 out of 52)." Again, that's just in a small period of time. But maybe the overall % is still a bit higher than I surmised at 10%.

hermhater

02-02-2008, 06:45 PM

Seems like catching Defenses off guard would raise that On Sides kick a bit!

Coaches should use it more often!

IlovetheChiefs

02-02-2008, 06:50 PM

A few years ago Andy Reid of the Eagles tried that play on the opening kickoff against Dallas and it worked, so there indeed is a case in point.