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Reds Top Prospects 2013 Midseason Edition

Now that we're halfway through the 2013 baseball season, here is a look at where things stand with major prospects in the Reds system:

GRADE A (Top 25 Prospect/Future All-Star Potential)

1. Robert Stephenson RHP A+ - The crown jewel. Best pitching prospect since Homer Bailey, maybe even Don Gullet. Ironically he could likely be the replacement in the Reds rotation if Bailey leaves via FA after next season.
2. Billy Hamilton CF AAA - His value has taken a hit due to his dismal OBP. However the speed and defense are still there. Should be in Cincy by September, and still look for him to start Opening Day 2014.

GRADE B (Top 100 Prospect/Future Starter Potential)

3. Jesse Winker OF A - His bat has cooled a bit over the last month, but he still has strong potential. Probably the best pure bat in the system.
4. Phil Ervin OF R/A - Needs to get to Dayton, especially now that CF Arias has been promoted to Bakersfield. Kirby Puckett comparisons abound.

GRADE C (Some Trade Value/Likely to Make the Majors One Day)

5. Nick Travieso RHP A - Highly volatile and quickly becoming Redszone's most debated prospect. Clearly a long way from the bigs, he has been extremely inconsistent if not unimpressive so far.
6. Yorman Rodriguez OF AA - The tools are there but the results are not. Seems like we've been saying that for years, but at 20 he's still one of the youngest players in AA, so there is room for improvement.
7. Donald Lutz OF AA - Despite getting an unexpected taste of the bigs early in the year, he is still at least a year away from being a solid big leaguer.
8. Chad Rogers RHP AAA - Maximizing his potential, he'll probably never be more than a BOR starter or long reliever, but his minor league numbers and ascent have been impressive.
9. Dan Corcino RHP AAA - Probably the biggest disappointment amongst several disappointments in the system this year. Corcino needs another year in AAA to try to regain the form and consistency that earned him the Cueto comp.
10. Tucker Barnhart C AA - Definitely a future big league catcher, question is whether he'll be a backup or a Ryan Hanigan-like starter. The defense is superb.

ON THE RADAR (Honorable Mention)

11. Carlos Contreras RHP A+ - Might be the most underrated prospect in the system.
12. Junior Arias CF A+ - Extremely toolsy, needs to put together a full season of strong play. After a great first half in Dayton, early results in Bakersfield have been weak.
13. Michael Lorenzen RHP A - If he is going to be a reliever, he needs to move quickly to justify his high draft selection. If they see him as a starter, they can take their time. Only time will tell.
14. Ismael Guillon LHP A - Also inconsistent in 2013 when many hoped he would turn a corner, but the potential is still very attractive.
15. Drew Cisco RHP A - Consistent and polished without a ton of upside, he's pretty much the opposite of Guillon. He also throws with the opposite arm.
16. Sal Romano RHP A - Young and exciting, will be fun to watch him develop.
17. Tanner Rahier 3B A - The pop and glove are there, the OBP is not. Needs to get on base more to move up the list.
18. Dan Langfield RHP A/A+ - Needs to get healthy and actually pitch in 2013 to justify this spot and/or move up. His rookie season was impressive.
19. Ryan Wright 2B A+ - Wasn't sure whether to put Wright or Kyle Waldrop here, but Wright gets the nod for position scarcity.
20. Juan Silva OF A+ - Has had a very impressive year, probably projects to a 4th OF. Needs to be challenged in AA.

KEEP AN EYE ON (Too Early to Tell)

Jonathan Reynoso CF R+ Trapped behind Hamilton, Arias and Ervin on the CF depth chart, he's still an exciting guy to monitor.Amir Garrett LHP R+ Once he focuses on baseball full time, he could move quickly up this list. Ton of upside.Ben Lively RHP R+ Good polish but not a lot of upside, he could and should move quickly through the system. Could be this year's Langfield with less upside and hopefully better health.Jose Ortiz C R+ Could be the best catching prospect in the system in a year or two. Definitely keep an eye on him and teammate Daniel Paula.Ty Washington 2B R+ Unheralded HS draftee had a very impressive debut, and continues to look good in Billings. Would be nice to have a middle infield prospect in the system, he could end up the heir to Brandon Phillips.Gabriel Rosa OF R+ Has never really hit since being taken in the 2nd round out of Puerto Rico, scouts still drool over his body. Has moved from 3B to the OF.Cory Thompson SS R- My favorite of this year's draftees, he has hit well so far in the AZL and could make an interesting middle infield combo with Washington as they move up the system.Kevin Franklin 3B R- I wouldn't mind seeing them try him at Catcher given his body type, athleticism and bat. Not to mention positional need in the organization.Mark Armstrong RHP R- Hasn't pitched yet this year but came highly heralded out of HS. Especially interesting since he didn't throw a lot of innings in New York state.Jacob Constante LHP R-- Not sure why the 19 year old heralded prospect is still pitching in the DSL. Shouldn't he at least be in the AZL by now?

NOT REALLY PROSPECTS ANYMORE

Neftali Soto 1B AAA - Still has decent power, but as a 24 year old 1B only, he has to OPS better than .750 in his second stint in AAA. Could be a major league PH, but not really a top prospect.Henry Rodriguez 2B/3B AAA - Could still be a useful utility man, although he hasn't really hit in a couple years. Like Soto, not giving up, just not counting him as a prospect.Felix Perez OF AAA - He's 28.Ryan LaMarre OF AA - He's regressed in his second year in AA. While I've never been really impressed with him, I used to think he could be another Heisey, now he looks like more of another minor league journeyman.Kyle Lotzkar RHP A+ - Even though he's still only 23, he looks like he's finished. Injuries have doomed him to become the first Reds first round/sandwich pick to not make the majors since Chris Gruler.

Dan Langfield - Injured to start the year, I wonder when he is coming back? Will he start in Dayton or Bakersfield?Mark Armstrong - Hasn't yet thrown an inning despite signing soon after the draft. Just pitching in extended and being cautious?Mason Felt - Of course we all know about the terrible accident that happened last year. I wonder if there is a report on what's happening with Mason and if he intends on pitching again?

Re: Reds Top Prospects 2013 Midseason Edition

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Is there anything to Seth Meijas-Brean's recent hot streak? Is he anything resembling a "real" prospect?

He and Kyle Waldrop were the two guys who just missed the Top 20. He loses some value if he has to move to 1B (where he's playing a lot in Dayton while Rahier mans the hot corner). That said, if he can continue to rake the second half of the year in Dayton, he'll crack the Top 20 by the end of the season.

Re: Reds Top Prospects 2013 Midseason Edition

Few quibbles:

Lutz is no longer a prospect. He is not eligible for the 2014 ROY. Too much time spent on the active roster. I know some places will still consider him a prospect because they use the more heard of 50ip/130AB barrier.

You are sleeping on Lotzkar, at least to the point that "he is no longer a prospect". The stuff is still there.

Re: Reds Top Prospects 2013 Midseason Edition

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Few quibbles:

Lutz is no longer a prospect. He is not eligible for the 2014 ROY. Too much time spent on the active roster. I know some places will still consider him a prospect because they use the more heard of 50ip/130AB barrier.

You are sleeping on Lotzkar, at least to the point that "he is no longer a prospect". The stuff is still there.

I will defer to your scouting but....

I'm a "show me something" guy. 6+ years after being drafted and you are still at A ball? Not impressed.

Re: Reds Top Prospects 2013 Midseason Edition

To me, Junior Arias is one of the players to be most excited about. The kid has tons of upside and had never really shown any production until this first half. He was totally off the prospect radar at the beginning of the season. I don't think anyone dreamed of him getting a mid year promotion. Still very raw, but young, athletic, and toolsy goes s long way when productivity rears its head.

(Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
-RichRed

Re: Reds Top Prospects 2013 Midseason Edition

Henry Rodriguez is a big disappointment to me. At one time it looked like he'd be a good bat/shaky glove guy. Now he better D up because his bat disappeared.

Corcino has been another disappointment but he has pitched better of late. YRod is young but the flashes he has shown have been brief and inconsistent. I really expect nothing more than a 4th-5th OFer from him unless something really clicks. And yes, I recognize some impatience on my part with YRod.

I am high on Mejias-Brean. He may be my breakout candidate for next season. Lotzkar is injured so often I, too, am not sure you can't go ahead and label him bust - then let him alter that perception. Any real production would be a surprise to me but he does have the arm if it can stay healthy.

Re: Reds Top Prospects 2013 Midseason Edition

Originally Posted by RedlegJake

Henry Rodriguez is a big disappointment to me. At one time it looked like he'd be a good bat/shaky glove guy. Now he better D up because his bat disappeared.

Corcino has been another disappointment but he has pitched better of late. YRod is young but the flashes he has shown have been brief and inconsistent. I really expect nothing more than a 4th-5th OFer from him unless something really clicks. And yes, I recognize some impatience on my part with YRod.

I am high on Mejias-Brean. He may be my breakout candidate for next season. Lotzkar is injured so often I, too, am not sure you can't go ahead and label him bust - then let him alter that perception. Any real production would be a surprise to me but he does have the arm if it can stay healthy.

Henry Rodriguez never had great isop, then that hand injury happened and he's not been the same. It hasn't been two years like the OP states, more like just over a year. He also used to steal some bags, but that has halted. He's an overall concern, sort of caught the Chris Valaika bug. Hate to see that. I still hold out hope, although my head tells me perhaps he never had enough power.

For me, Corcino never was a lock. I never liked his cross body delivery, and I don't expect an immediate bounce back from him with his mechanical problems this year. I really don't know what to expect unless he can embrace a middle relief role and become a Lecure or Simon type in 2-3 years.

Where I was a total doubter of YRod, now I definitely expect him to play for the Reds as a platoon guy. He hits LHP quite well and has the ability to replace Heisey as the 4th OF in 2-3 years. I'm high on Yorman for the first time in maybe ever.

Brean is also one of my favorites. He's definitely old for the MWL, but I think there may be something to the weather warming up that got him back on track. I like his plate discipline, but I think it was holding him back and I'm guessing he decided to be more aggressive (he had to put up asap). I really hope he goes to Bakersfield soon. The fact is, however, he'll have to put up really great numbers to emerge as a role player in 2015 or 2016 or 2017 even. Rahier already has moved him off 3rd, so that's not a great sign. The power will have to come for him. Edit: I wonder if he could pick up 2b and LF eventually. He's athletic they say.

I hope Lotzkar will turn into a bullpen specialist someday, but I just feel bad his path has been so wrought.

Likes:

Re: Reds Top Prospects 2013 Midseason Edition

Right now, I hope in the absence of a great 2nd half by Billy, that they sign a CF bridge to 2015 for next year and let Billy continue to improve in AAA. He's actually still young enough to wait it out and perhaps get a June callup next year. Sign Podsednick or his current permutation, or just go with Heisey in CF with Felix Perez as the 4th OF or something.

Re: Reds Top Prospects 2013 Midseason Edition

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I will defer to your scouting but....

I'm a "show me something" guy. 6+ years after being drafted and you are still at A ball? Not impressed.

Don't confuse me saying the stuff is still there with me saying he is a Top 30 prospect. I am just saying don't just write him off as a non-prospect. He isn't a RHP who tops out at 87 MPH. That is all I was really saying.

Re: Reds Top Prospects 2013 Midseason Edition

Guys to add to Keep an Eye on List:

Ronald Bueno - Heir to Ronald Torreyes???
Tim Crabbe - Wondering if a move to the pen provides a JJ Hoover like bump
Zach Vincenj - 2013 All Star at SS
Kevin Garcia - Off to a good start with the bat
Jeff Gelalich - Recent sandwich pick needs more rope. His defense is very good.
Pedro Diaz - BA had him at 16 this year. He still may get it and is only 20 years old.

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Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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