Apple, which will launch its new iPhone 3G S handset in eight countries on Friday, is expected to sell half a million of the devices before the weekend is over and sales of the $99 iPhone 3G model are tallied into the mix.

The forecast comes by way of Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who notes the half-million mark would compare to sales of 1 million iPhone 3G handsets during its inaugural weekend last July, and 270,000 original iPhones back in June of 2007.

"Several factors lead us to believe Apple will sell less iPhone 3G S's at launch than it did for the iPhone 3G including a less Â*dramatic change in value proposition and fewer available countries at Â*launch," Munster wrote in a research note Thursday.

More specifically, the analyst points out that the launch of the iPhone 3G last year came alongside a 50% price reduction from the original models, which drove sharp increases in demand.

With most customers being able to purchase the new iPhone 3G S at identical pricing, the change in value proposition for the new model is therefore not as meaningful as last year, he said, which should likely translate to fewer units sold at launch.

In supporting his lower unit sales estimates for launch weekend, Munster also noted that the iPhone 3G S is launching in just 8 countries this weekend compared to the 21 countries that were able to launch the iPhone 3G on its first weekend last year.

"The iPhone 3G S launch and the price reduction on the iPhone 3G leave us increasingly confident in our 5 million iPhone unit estimate for the June quarter," the analyst told clients. "Our estimate includes 3.0 million iPhones in the month of June, approximately 500k 3G S units in the back half of the month and the remaining 2.5m iPhone 3G units through the entire month."

For the September quarter, Munster expects Apple to sell roughly 7 million iPhones combined. He maintained his Buy rating and $180 price target on shares of the Cupertino-based company.

If anyone reading this can post their average monthly bill (minus purchases) I would appreciate it.

thanks

In Canadian dollars

Factoring in that the iPhone is my only phone, it's loaded with ALL services offered by Rogers, plus the data plan, plus the long-distance package, my monthly bill comes out to between $100-$120/month.

I will be a new iPhone owner, long time AT&T user on Friday. Does anyone have the data as to how many new iPhone owner there are and how many returning owners there are of the 3G and the original iPhone?

My wife and I have 30 GB iPods that are over half full. We've been waiting since the first iPhone for a 32 GB version to come out. Now if AT&T could lower the cost of their plans to something more reasonable we might actually sign up.

This guy really thinks Apple is going to sell 2.5 million 3G's but only 500k 3Gs'?

"Our estimate includes 3.0 million iPhones in the month of June, approximately 500k 3G S units in the back half of the month and the remaining 2.5m iPhone 3G units through the entire month."

Every single review I've seen says just pony up the $100 for the s since the monthly cost is the same and you get twice the storage. No way they sell that many 3G's if they are only selling 500k 3Gs'...

My wife and I have 30 GB iPods that are over half full. We've been waiting since the first iPhone for a 32 GB version to come out. Now if AT&T could lower the cost of their plans to something more reasonable we might actually sign up.

Price drops, and you'd buy! Radical. I wonder if anyone else might do the same.....

Looking at all this iPhone news over the past couple of days and how people are falling over themselves to get in on some 3G S (and even 3G) action, it seems the Pre has been pushed into the background with the rest of the pack. And all the news about Pres scratching and cracking can't be good, although I'm unsure whether that has as much basis in reality as we might assume.

being able to purchase the new iPhone 3G S at identical pricing, the change in value proposition for the new model is therefore not as meaningful as last year, he said, which should likely translate to fewer units sold at launch.

completely inaccurate. The reason fewer will turn out this year is BECAUSE 1 million+ turned out LAST year. Not all of these people are ready/eligible/prepared to upgrade.

To say it is not as high of a value proposition, is absolutely absurd. The 3GS is easily 5X the upgrade that the 3G was to the 2G.

Dude- just because ur not affected doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It's only been mentioned in about every review for the last two years that the calls in the US are mediocre. Go toast yourself with a glass of champagne that ur not affected. Give it up already!

completely inaccurate. The reason fewer will turn out this year is BECAUSE 1 million+ turned out LAST year. Not all of these people are ready/eligible/prepared to upgrade.

To say it is not as high of a value proposition, is absolutely absurd. The 3GS is easily 5X the upgrade that the 3G was to the 2G.

I don't know about 5x but at least 2x but then again if you only use your phone for casual surfing, simple games at most and don't use it as a camera I see no reason to upgrade from 3G to 3Gs. Now I have a 2G and will be upgrading to the 3Gs so that should be nice and I'm in DFW so hopefully I'll be able to get those higher speeds sometime this year since, ya know, AT&T is now HQ'd in Dallas

Dude- just because your not affected doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It's only been mentioned in about every review for the last two years. Go toast yourself with a glass of champagne that your not affected. Give it up already!

grammar police - if you're going to italicize something at least make sure it's correct... (you're, twice) And most people aren't affected but the ones that are are very loud about it (you for example)

This guy really thinks Apple is going to sell 2.5 million 3G's but only 500k 3Gs'?

Every single review I've seen says just pony up the $100 for the s since the monthly cost is the same and you get twice the storage. No way they sell that many 3G's if they are only selling 500k 3Gs'...

This makes sense. Last year there were no iPhones at all available for a month before the 3G's introduction. In addition, the App Store was debuting last year. Finally, the 3GS will be competing against $99 iPhone 3G's now, which will probably prove as popular or more than the 3GS model.

grammar police - if you're going to italicize something at least make sure it's correct... (you're, twice) And most people aren't affected but the ones that are are very loud about it (you for example)

Fact police. If you are going to mention facts at least mention all the facts not just what you want to pick and choose. You leave out the most important people who are mentioning it.- the reviewers. What are they? Part of some vast conspiracy I suppose? Better facts than grammar- any day.

This makes sense. Last year there were no iPhones at all available for a month before the 3G's introduction. In addition, the App Store was debuting last year. Finally, the 3GS will be competing against $99 iPhone 3G's now, which will probably prove as popular or more than the 3GS model.

I think that'll depend on the country - all the people I know that are going iPhone for the first time are going w/ the Gs. If you're going to have a 2 year contract you might as well get the latest version (IMO)

Dude- just because your not affected doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It's only been mentioned in about every review for the last two years that the calls in the US are mediocre. Go toast yourself with a glass of champagne that your not affected. Give it up already!

Why? No one I even KNOW with an iPhone has ever had a problem with AT&T. At least 3 dozen people.

Not. At. All.

That counts for just as much as all the people that can't shut up about their two dropped calls per year. Granted there are parts of country with little to No service, and that sucks, but is clearly indicated on AT&T's service map. Right down to the block.

This guy really thinks Apple is going to sell 2.5 million 3G's but only 500k 3Gs'?

"Our estimate includes 3.0 million iPhones in the month of June, approximately 500k 3G S units in the back half of the month and the remaining 2.5m iPhone 3G units through the entire month."

Every single review I've seen says just pony up the $100 for the s since the monthly cost is the same and you get twice the storage. No way they sell that many 3G's if they are only selling 500k 3Gs'...

The 3G iPhones are mostly 8GB $99 models except what few 16GB units are still in the pipeline. It's really foolish to buy less than the 32GB 3GS for only $299. Video recording will eat RAM at the rate of 2GB/hr. Photos also eat RAM for breakfast. Folks with less than 30 (net) GB iPhones will live to regret not spending the extra $100-$200 for the fattest iPhone they could have gotten. That means more 3GS sales than analysts are predicting and persistent shortages in the beginning months.

If current owners of iPhones don't realize the cost of advancing to the 32GB iPhone is almost nothing. Resale value of used out-of-contract 16 GB 3G iPhones is $400. wost case scenario cost to get 32GB 3GS is $299 + $120 early termination fee for those who bought last July and got minimum plan @ about $78 in USA. So the move will cost $20 at most.

I don't know about 5x but at least 2x but then again if you only use your phone for casual surfing, simple games at most and don't use it as a camera I see no reason to upgrade from 3G to 3Gs. Now I have a 2G and will be upgrading to the 3Gs so that should be nice and I'm in DFW so hopefully I'll be able to get those higher speeds sometime this year since, ya know, AT&T is now HQ'd in Dallas

Conceded, its a huge update if you know to use the iPhone. However, true to your example, I'll be buying the 3GS and my wife will take my 3G, as its more than enough for her.

Fact police. If you are going to mention facts at least mention all the facts not just what you want to pick and choose. You leave out the most important people who are mentioning it.- the reviewers. What are they? Part of some vast conspiracy I suppose? Better facts than grammar- any day.

Nope, they are singular entities just like you and I and when it comes to evaluating cell performance their experience is no more valid than anyone else's. Now if they are talking about features and comparing them then, sure, they've been able to test all of them so I'm sure they have an insight that you and I do not but when it comes to "does my phone receive calls well" they are just another person.

Also, I'll point out that many of the reviewers are in places that are notoriously bad for reception so of course it's going to review poorly but, as I'm sure you know, not everyone lives in NY, SF, LA or even Chicago.

grammar police - if you're going to italicize something at least make sure it's correct... (you're, twice) And most people aren't affected but the ones that are are very loud about it (you for example)

Just to point out that to be affected by this, one has to own and use an iPhone first. The person to whom you are responding, by his own admission, doesn't own or use an iPhone.

Also, I'll point out that many of the reviewers are in places that are notoriously bad for reception so of course it's going to review poorly but, as I'm sure you know, not everyone lives in NY, SF, LA or even Chicago.

A great example of a lame excuse for an important part lacking in a phone.

Looking at all this iPhone news over the past couple of days and how people are falling over themselves to get in on some 3G S (and even 3G) action, it seems the Pre has been pushed into the background with the rest of the pack. And all the news about Pres scratching and cracking can't be good, although I'm unsure whether that has as much basis in reality as we might assume.

From what I've read, it appears that battery life on the Palm Pre can be a major issue. Some reports have the thing dying in about 4 hours. Also, the keyboard buttons are really, really small.

In a world of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

A great example of a lame excuse for an important part lacking in a phone.

So the fact that the reviewers are in places that I might go once or twice a decade is a lame excuse when it works perfectly where I spend 99.9999% of my time? Sounds like you're the one ignoring the real world situation. So, ok, if you live in one of those cities that's known for poor reception don't get it but just because it's bad in places you rarely, if ever, go that's a pathetic excuse to not at least pick up your local newspaper and look for the local reviews.

This guy really thinks Apple is going to sell 2.5 million 3G's but only 500k 3Gs'?

"Our estimate includes 3.0 million iPhones in the month of June, approximately 500k 3G S units in the back half of the month and the remaining 2.5m iPhone 3G units through the entire month."

Every single review I've seen says just pony up the $100 for the s since the monthly cost is the same and you get twice the storage. No way they sell that many 3G's if they are only selling 500k 3Gs'...

This is for June. iPhone 3Gs has 11 days, iPhone 3g has 30. If you look at the next quarter, he's predicted much more 3Gs sales.

This guy really thinks Apple is going to sell 2.5 million 3G's but only 500k 3Gs'?

"Our estimate includes 3.0 million iPhones in the month of June, approximately 500k 3G S units in the back half of the month and the remaining 2.5m iPhone 3G units through the entire month."

Every single review I've seen says just pony up the $100 for the s since the monthly cost is the same and you get twice the storage. No way they sell that many 3G's if they are only selling 500k 3Gs'...

Bolded the important parts. He is comparing and entire month of sales for the 3G to 12 days of sales for the 3G S. Still the estimate seems a little out, unless most people only consider the upfront cost. If you are committing to ~$100 a month in voice and data plans for the next couple years, an extra $100 in the initial purchase price shouldn't be that major of an obstacle.

Your poor grasp of logic is truly astounding and consistent in all your posts.

You constantly complain about a problem that you don't have because you are convinced that you would have it if you owned an iPhone.

When a company's products are so far ahead of what's out there currently, and are so well designed, critics have to reach further and further - often well into the realm of the ridiculous, in order to find something to use, no matter how silly or obscure.

Unfortunately for such people, these criticims don't actually have any basis in reality. They are not borne out by the numbers, and certainly not borne out by prevailing sentiment. At all.

These are his own problems (either real or imagined); ones that he is attempting to project on to everyone else. If he has xyz complaint then everyone else MUST have the same complaint. And if they don't, he thinks something is worng with THEM.

Bottom line is that the iPhone (and 3G especially) changed the face of wireless communications almost overnight. A lot of the carriers/networks out there were naturally unprepared for exactly what this would mean. Apple (along with vendors that have stepped up their game) is rolling out new tech and much more demanding tech faster than carriers can accommodate them. Supporting the kind of data usage we have nowadays is an expesnive proposition, even for the most solvent and profitable carriers. Our data usage is through the roof, and this extends to boradband/high speed internet. We're demanding more and more services for less and less money, while service providers are looking for every possible way to save money on their end as well. Hell, we're even demamnding to get ot of our current plans/contracts in order to upgrade to the newest iPhone at even lower prices! At some point there are going to be conflicts and bottlenecks. The situation is improving, but we need to be a bit more cognizant of the fact that a lot of these changes happened almost overnight and the pressure for "more for less" isn't letting up.

If you happen to not be getting the best coverage in NYC, it isn't because AT&T doesn't want you to have it. AT&T would rather sell as many iPhones as possible in the NYC area and keep those customers when it comes time to upgrade. You can go with another carrier, but there will be advantages and disadvantages with them as well. In some areas, AT&T beats Verizon hands-down, for instance.

As time goes on, we'll see everything improve and clarify with respect to 3G coverage and broadband support and options. But you can't expect carriers to be able to constantly keep pace with the kind of explosive increases in data/cell usage we're seeing with these current and next-gen smartphones. Demand seems to be outstripping supply.