UPDATE I calculate Tory vote share in Scotland on results so far as 26%. The BBC is proclaiming this as a triumph and ringing endorsement for Ruth Davidson, and final refutation of Independence. I calculate Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour UK wide vote share so far as 28%. This is abject failure and a total rejection of Labour, according to the BBC. How 26% is a great triumph, and 28% an abject defeat, no doubt the current GCHQ shift will explain below.

Unlike England and Wales, the Scottish elections are on the proportional STV system. With their Scottish 26%, the Tories are picking up some gains in third or fourth place in multi-member wards. Under the English FPTP system, the Tories would have gained almost nothing in Scotland.

Interestingly nowhere on the BBC news or website can I find any indication of Scottish vote share, only UK vote share. But of course if the BBC gave the Tory Scottish vote share it would rather spoil the Tory triumph narrative.

Oh, and we now know it is YouGove who are the charlatans.

ORIGINAL POST I do like simple binary possibilities, they are much less hard work than complex thought. Today we have one. By tea-time we will know which of two possibilities is correct.

Possibility a) Craig Murray is a deluded old fool who has no understanding of politics and is totally out of touch with the people of Scotland

Possibility b) YouGove are a bunch of charlatans who produce polling about Scotland deliberately designed to exaggerate the success of unionists and Tories, in order to provide pegs for the media to hang Tory propaganda and to attract the weak-minded to the “winning” position.

YouGove’s Scottish polling figures continually produce results which are to me impossible, showing Scotland is a nation enamoured of the Conservatives.

The Scottish component of Today’s YouGove opinion poll for the Times has

Scotland

SNP 40%
Conservative 37%
Labour 15%
Lib Dem 6%
Green 1%

Fortunately yesterday every local council in Scotland had an election, and we shall soon start to see results. So am I a fool or are YouGove charlatans? Will the Tories get 37%? Will the unionist parties combined get 58%?

On a technical note, yes that poll has a fairly small Scottish subsample of 209. But it is one of a series in which YouGove has consistently produced much higher figures for Tories in Scotland, and much lower figures for the SNP in Scotland, than other pollsters. For example three days ago the Scottish element of the latest Panelbase poll had the Tories on 19%.

255 thoughts on “Which is the Charlatan?”

Ah, Craig. You really do need to read Tetlock on forecasting. The simple trick is to not forecast what you want to happen or would like to see. Instead, cold-heartedly, have a stab at what is likely to happen. Always a challenge for yer partisans, I know.

What is much more extraordinary is not forecasting ability, but your ability to see what has already happened in the way you desire. The Tories are on about 26% of the vote so far in Scotland. Because Scottish local elections are on STV, that picks them up some third or fourth place seats in wards. Big deal.

Craig
You are not deluded my friend .
We need to evaluate the actual result and then comment .
We are in a situation where the right wing press dominates the outcome .
Sadly this will eventually lead to an explosive situation in Scotland and elsewhere which will be difficult to control

The BBC are showing the SNP as making a net loss of 7 seats from 2012. Yet they’ve actually made a net gain.

In 2012 the SNP got 425 seats and in 2017 431 seats. I can only figure the BBC are counting the SNP council by-election gains since 2012 to make 431 a net loss of 7 seats instead of how they should be reporting it as a net gain of 6.

The manipulative narratives that the BBC put out are very obvious now.

At the start of the Scottish results Laura Kuennsberg was eagerly reporting that the SNP leader in Fife had lost his seat to the Tories. He hadn’t. He lost his seat to an SNP colleague who was also standing in the ward.

Quote:- ” Boundary changes have occurred in many councils in Scotland. Seat change is based on notional 2012 results, which estimate what the results would have been then if the new boundaries had been in place. “

There is no net increase in total councillors. The SNP have 35 more seats than they had at the 2102 elections (ignoring by election votes since). How you make that minus 7 is beyond me. The Guardian make it plus 35 and the Telegraph plus 31.

Scottish Labour now have a huge dilemma. Do they go into coalition with a hard right Tory Party on a large number of councils across Scotland and alienate even more of their support or do they finally admit they are not better together with them.

I don’t have any skin in this game but it strikes me that Craig protesteth too much.

No one has given the detailed Scottish vote share as far as I can see, not even the SNP website, though this will doubtless be done when someone has time to do the arithmetic.

So seeing BBC plots in everything seems a bit paranoid and hyperbolic, as a neutral with no great love of that overpaid institution. And while I find Kuenssberg as irritating as the next person, I cannot fathom the vituperous hatred of her on this site.

But on any neutral’s reading 431 seats out of 1,227 is 35% of the seats, with the Tories at 276 on 22% and Labour in third place on 262 seats or 21% is hardly a decisive outcome for anyone, as would be expected under STV. But if anyone has done better than expected it is surely the Tories, pushing Labour into third place?

Craig, I didn’t mention that, because it was just one poll, not a campaign or a series, and as you recognise it was a small sample as part of a national poll.

I do get that opinion polls are untrustworthy and often done like a drunk hanging on a lap post – for support not illumination, as Daryl Huff so elegantly put it. And I’m very ready to believe that YouGov are part of the problem.

However, that was not my point. How about answering the question I asked, which was about why you are having a go at the BBC for not revealing the vote share, not deflect from it by hammering on about an opinion poll few will have taken seriously, as you quite rightly rail against politicians for doing.

John, the issue is that there is long history here, going back to the IndyRef. The BBC has history.

I am English, but noticed at the time of the Referendum that there seemed to be something decidedly “off” about the coverage. Then when it came to the Labour leadership election, I saw it again in spades. Finally, with Brexit, it was undeniable. The BBC will peddle the establishment line relentlessly. That means pro Union, pro EU, pro Neoliberalism (whether Tory or New Labour).

You may also be aware that Kuenssberg, a self-declared Conservative, conspired with a New Labour rebel to time his resignation to deliver a party political advantage to the Tories, and was later censured by the BBC Trust for her false reporting about Corbyn:

Yougov put out a poll saying that the Tories are on 37% for the GE in Scotland.

However at the council elections they got 25% of the seats under a STV system which means they probably got 20%-25% of the vote. Basically Craig is saying what many people think namely that that Yougov release polls near elections with figures that are designed to get reluctant Tories out voting. Yougov released a poll which showed Yes ahead a week ahead of the Indyref, Yougov released a poll which showed the Tories and Labour tied on 33% a few days before the last general election and now this crazy poll timed to add evidence to a Scottish Tory comeback.

But I was commenting not on that but on Craig’s update, which was very critical of the BBC for it’s interpretation of the results and attacked them for not publishing the vote share, which no-one else had either. As I said, I’m no great fan of the BBC but have a go at them based on a better case!

“Corbyn allowed his MP’s to traipse through the corridors of Westminster and back Theresa May-hem’s hard Brexit”

A tactical move. There is no point going against a referendum result that is guaranteed to be passed anyway. They voted for A10, not hard brexit. If they had voted the other way what would have been the difference?

“Corbyn ruled out any coalition with the SNP at Westminster when it comes to fighting the Tories.”

He has to English voters don’t like the idea of a Labour-SNP coalition. That’s why Lynton Crosby focused on it massively last time.

“Corbyn at first claimed that Scots should have a second indyref, then quickly changed his mind.”

His position was always they don’t back a referendum but if there is to be one then so be it. It’s an entirely reasonable position from a reasonable man.

The SNP are one issue party desperately clinging to the centre ground. They can only hold it for so long.

“The SNP are one issue party desperately clinging to the centre ground. They can only hold it for so long.”

________

They’ve been holding it for ten years now and are still going strong, now who’s the clown?

Corbyn didn’t have the balls to stop May calling a snap GE, even though there’s a parliament act to do so.

If he did May would’ve needed to declare no confidence in her government, to hold a GE, it would’ve damaged the Blue Tories reputation.

No Corbyn bottled it, and went along with the Blue Tories, at a time when Labour down South are in a very weak position, and if these council elections are a gauge to the GE, Corbyn and his Blairites, that are dotted throughtout Labour are in big trouble.

I’m of a mind that Corbyn is either, naive, inept, or not as opposed to the Tories as he makes out to be, he’s certainly anti-EU-in1993, he spoke out against the Maastricht Treaty.

I’ll explain something to you. The Tories had a majority. This meant that after Leave won the Brexit vote A50 was guaranteed to be invoked. This meant that after May announced an election there was guaranteed to be an election. Tories only rebel to the right, her majority is rock solid whether it’s one or two hundred.

You may believe that Corbyn leading losing battles against inevitable outcomes would have strengthened him, I believe that with the media against him and plotters in his own party to deal with fighting either of these battles for no reason at all would have been insane. All you would have heard is “Corbyn opposes the will of the people”, “Corbyn is terrified of an election”

Corbyn is a genuine socialist. A genuine advocate of progressive politics. A man who is not in politics to line his own pockets. The SNP on the other hand contain many good individuals but the requirement to get a majority for independence has led them to dull, small c conservative legislative agenda in Holyrood. We have had a parliament for almost 18 years and yet we have barely seen it act as parliament.

It’s a tragedy that the battle for Independence has killed any genuine progressive agenda in Scotland and let the Tories sneak back in to public favour.

“Corbyn is a genuine socialist. A genuine advocate of progressive politics. A man who is not in politics to line his own pockets. The SNP on the other hand contain many good individuals but the requirement to get a majority for independence has led them to dull, small c conservative legislative agenda in Holyrood. We have had a parliament for almost 18 years and yet we have barely seen it act as parliament.”

________

Oh please spare me your delusions, Labour is rife from top to bottom with Blairites, who are playing pretendy socialism. Corbyn may very well be a socialist at heart, but Labour are not.

As for lining his own pockets, Corbyn doesnt seem to be doing too bad from all those years of sitting on the backbenches, it’s easy to defy the whip when you’ve nothing to lose, a maverick, now it’s a different game sunshine when you’re in the hot seat as leader.

As for the SNP, I’d like to see Corbyn or May acheive half of what the SNP have acheived, with the powers they have at hand.

Add in that, with Brexit looming very few domestic policies will be implimented (cuts aside) as powers are semi-scrutinised as the are repatriated back to Westminster, in what will come to be known as the “Great Power Grab.”

_____

“You seem to have a very simple view of things”

Yeah its people that make things complicated, when they ought not to be.

Council tax freeze, a tax cut on pollution for people going on foreign holidays, shitting the bed on land reform, named person Stasi program, persecuting young football fans. Being beaten to legalising gay marriage by David Cameron.

This is the party who attempted to abolish corroboration. They are intellectually vapid. However i will be grateful if they get us independence and real politics can begin.

So the Scottish Tories now have a councillor in two Scotland’s most rundown area’s Shettlestoun, and Ferguslie Park.

I can only surmise that, it’s down to unionists voting for them, to stop the SNP, turkeys don’t generally vote for Christmas.

I also assume that loyalists/unionists in Scotland voted for the Tories holding their noses whilst doing so, not because they wanted them to win. But because they know Labour are finished, and the Tories firmly oppose Scottish independence.

Scotland is the definition of surrealism, you have Scots in poor areas voting for a party (Tories) that wants to punish them. Because the other main party (SNP) wants independence, to help them.

You have once political mortal enemies, Labour/Tories, teaming up to thwart the nationalists, the Libdems who’ll jump into bed with anyone who offers a smidgen of power.

Meanwhile half of Scotland people want to take their orders from a foreign government in England hellbent on causing them economic mayhem, in the form of Brexit, and a whole host of slash and burn policies.

Throw in that the media and press are mostly owned and based out of a foreign country, and are determined to keep Scots in ill informed, or they constantly distort the truth.

Indeed there is Habb, I had a terrible nightmare last night, in which dithering old prince Phil the Greek, decided to come back out of retirement, and bore us all to death, with his life story, thankfully it was only a bad dream. ?

“How 26% is a great triumph, and 28% an abject defeat, no doubt the current GCHQ shift will explain below.”
That got a laugh.
I often wonder why you let them continue Craig, they really drive peeps away. I got scunnered with it around the time they targeted Mary, to the point of making her ill.
But I suppose it’s a case of ‘keep your friends close, & your enemies closer’, and they’d only return with a new moniker & email each time anyhoo. It’s paid work after all.
How is the £ holding up against the Shekel ?

The gap hasn’t closed at all. It’s still more than 20 points (currently 62-38); in fact widened this week.

That in spite of the great efforts made in British media to suggest Le Pen was going to win. I thought something funny was going on, and it seems confirmed that all those recent articles in British media were part of a Brexiter campaign to get Le Pen in, or at least influence British voters’ intentions by making them think that the Brexiters are not isolated in the world, and the EU is in for imminent destruction. But it seems likely now that the campaign will fail. A point to think about in the context of 8th June.

On your Syrian prediction, not very likely in view. It would be necessary for Britain, and the US to undertake full scale war against Asad (and Russia). That would be a great folly, it would be as stupid as Brexit. I don’t see much enthusiasm in the US for that, whatever May and her cabal think about a new parliamentary vote. It still hasn’t become clear what happened to the famous 59 Tomahawk strike. Something went seriously wrong, as a strike. Either Trump actually pulled his punches, or the Russians have some secret electronic wizardry which allowed them to turn away the missiles. In neither case is it optimistic for an Iraq mk. II (or is it mk X?). So whatever the feelings of frustration the hair-trigger warmongers in Washington and London may have, I don’t see things changing. The most likely scenario is that May will pass her Commons vote menacing war on Asad, if there is a new gas incident. Such an incident will certainly happen within two weeks; the rebels will be unable to resist. But will GB and US actually go to war, necessary to get rid of Asad? The generals in Washington will be against it, and lots of other factors. Some blowhard military demonstration is more likely, and that will leave Asad in place.

Ambassador Yakovlenko understands the situation perfectly (http://www.rusemb.org.uk/ambarticles/522):-
“It has to be borne in mind that the British Foreign Secretary recently hypothesized on joining another US action in Syria in response to another chemical incident, which means that an order for it has already been placed.”

I’m pleased you have finally widened up to the fact that this Blog attracts GCHQ Bunker Boy’s, the trio of which have been doing a fine job denigrating both the SNP and Labour – its bad enough listening to BBC bollocks, without turning here to have our Establishment trio spew out the same tripe.

As for anything else, well given UKIP never really made big gains in Scotland, we now are witnessing its demise, regrettably the real bigots, racists and fascist are going back home to Mummy, namely the Conservative Party. And Yet, and yet the media and Bitterite faction within the Labour Parry are demanding Corbyn’s head on a plate. A great shame these Oxbridge educated buffoons are unable to do a comparative analysis between what ‘real Labour’ is achieving compared to its Socialist and social democrat peers on the Continent. Fuck, Holland/Hammon’s socialist neoliberal Parry only got 6% of the vote in the French Presidential election. Alas, Corb yen’s a disaster!

As a Corbyn supporter and ‘ultra-leftist’, if Labour get 33% in the 8 June GE I’ll be chuffed, chuffed because I’ll know that 1 in 3 of the electorate actually cares about society. I don’t see Labour making any gains in Scotland given its leadership is anti-Corbyn and Unionist, however, with a strong SNP showing and hopefully third-party voters recognising only a Labour vote can stop the Tories in most of England and Wales, I’m hopeful May won’t enjoy a larger majority than she has to-day, and will place a punt she’ll have less MPs than she has today after another month of ‘strong & stable’ tripe.

Agreed Chris. Why isn’t the headline today that the Tories’ projected national share of the vote is 10% below what they were allegedly polling yesterday according to YouGove? If the Tories match this 38%, Labour gets back up to 33%, and the Lib Dems and SNP keep the Tories at bay in the West Country and Scotland, a reduced majority or even the loss of her majority is still a real possibility.

The question on the Yougov poll was “If there was a General Election tomorrow which party would you vote for?”.

People often don’t vote the same in local and general elections, I would have answered Liberal to that but my first preference yesterday was an Independent. Take the Independents out of the equation and it changes things a lot.

Weirdly, I have been entirely unable to get local election results as a percentage. Only did some light Googling for a few mins, but it should be relatively easy. Lots of results telling me how many seats won\lost, but no percentage. Maybe it’s my poor Googling skills. On the other hand, if Labour did reasonably well as a percentage (say over 30%), this would be interesting news, and thus not to be mentioned by Fake News inc.

And if the Tories are on 37% in Scotland, I’ll personally give all my savings to Tony Blair, as a donation to his peace-keeping activities. Not likely, is it?

In a General Election it wouldn’t surprise me. If there is the 55:45 split that seems to be constant between unionist and nationalist around 35% for Conservatives and 20% between Labour and Liberal is by no means beyond the realms of possibility.

Kuennsberg was at it again today too. Emily Thornberry was in the studio and was having trouble with her iphone. Kuennsberg responded, this is almost word for word, “That means Labour HQ can’t get through to tell you what to say so you’ll have to tell us what you actually think!”

This woman is now a law unto herself. Unprofessional doesn’t even come close!

I’m sorry to say Emily didn’t get the chance as Huw Edwards moved things on.

Kuennsberg is getting away with all sorts and as Political Editor for BBC she breaches the rules on impartiality constantly. Even after being exposed for doctoring a report on Corbyn’s position on armed police she continues to behave appallingly.

Indeed. A pity that the BBC Trust, in publicly admitting that their Political Editor deliberately put together a doctored and highly misleading news report, failed to discipline her accordingly. It was a very serious breach of its own Charter. Instead the Trust went on, in the same statement, to insist that Kuennsberg was, despite her clear dishonesty, an excellent journalist! Says it all, eh?

Be careful you two, having promised habby the same he went on winging about it for month, he might take offence to having his ball girl slapped for being a bullying b…h.

PS. Cath Smith, Labour front bencher has made noise of Labour supporting a move to change the electoral system to PR. I expect this to be in the manifesto next week in a move to reach out. LK will have to start swearing soon, her old tricks are only serving to cut the Tories glum and glee.

After yesterdays leafleting/canvassing in Norwich south, reaffirming old and new Labour members vote for Clive Lewis, its becoming clear that many of the Greens, they had a solid 8% at the last GE, will be voting for Labour after their loss of all county councillors last Thursday.
It could also be that they are savvy enough to reciprocate a lesser effort in Brighton Pavillon were Caroline Lucas has asked them to stand aside.
But voters are so turned off with the lot of politics, that you could buy a GE vote for two pints.

Probably better if she hadn’t said it but was she so far off the truth? After all, it’s a constant criticism of New Labour (on here and elsewhere) that New Labourites always have to be “on message”, isn’t it?

I’ve never voted! At age 15 I defied my Labour/Conservative parents to become unpaid errand boy for SNP National SecretarySecretary, the late Robert Curran, at the party’s Glasgow offices. I (and my friend Robert) became exiled after a raid on the Johnstone Army Cadets armoury (Robert believed the rifles might be used against nationalist demonstrators). I describe the raid in my memoir RETIRED TERRORIST (no Scottish publisher wanted it, and it was issued by Trafford in the US in 2012).
After police arrested one of our raiding party, Robert counseled our escape and went to New York. I escaped to the US region of Occupied Germany, and later to California – I finally moved to New Zealand 35 years ago after learning my US residence might be challenged. But Robert (who hadn’t been physically present at the raid) escaped to New York; I heard he was eventually able to return to take up a minor role in the SNP in Edinburgh. My arrest, I was told, was still likely if I returned to Scotland; The SNP did not respond to any of my appeals for advice in this regard
I suppose you might say I qualify for the title Charlatan, since I’ve had to represent myself somewhat differently after escaping from Scotland. I qualified for employment with the US Army in Germany, and was able to complete my education and obtain academic posts in the US (and subsequently NZ), as well as have three volumes of memoirs published. However my exclusion from Scotland has been hurtful – and I’ve especially resented not being able to vote there!