This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Perhaps I should not mention this..

I try not to hype the weather...and one can't be sure about forecast model output more than 4 days out...but....the predictions of some the computer models for the end of the coming weak are extraordinary and possibly severe.

We start with possibly a minor windstorm on Wednesday and perhaps a little snow. The a very powerful windstorm strikes the area on Friday..as strong as the Chanukah Eve event. And then back to snow.

There is, of course, a lot of uncertainty that far out and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it...but now two modeling cycles have shown it. Anyway, we need to watch this carefully...if these storms are still forecast on Tuesday...then we should prepare.

Remember...this is a neutral year...neither El Nino nor La Nina...and the most severe snow and wind events...when they do happen...do so in such years.

Oh Boy! NOT!How often do we have the neutral years? I guess I'd always presumed it was cycling between El Nino and La Nina.

Economic angle for the forecast:If another event rolls in this week folks may start to have a siege mentality. Glued to their tv's and laptops. not shopping. Blogging. Or, perhaps it will help the local news stations sell some ads to keep their income up so they won't need to layoff anymore staff.

Real Change:Maybe the city and county gov't can pre-stage some unemployed local workers to cut trees and clear limbs off the roads.

Cliff, do you see this as an east wind event shooting through the gaps like last time or is this more a typical west-east possible event? I realize we are a ways out yet. Many thanks for all your work!!

well, heck. but at least this gives us time to drive to a decent grocery store (assuming we can get out of the deep slush-over-ice in mountlake terrace) and grab some boots for my "i'll shovel in tennis shoes!" better half.

were 1990 and 1996 neutral years as well?

thanks for the fantastic blog. i am fervently hoping you are right about not being sure this far out...

This is why I love reading your blog Cliff! You combine a love for weather with a respect for the variables. Nothing drives me more crazy than when our local news hype up a gale or make a snow shower into a blizzard. With that said, bring it on!!! For us storm lovers, this should be fun pattern to follow. This winter is turning out to be much more exciting than I expected. Keep us updated!

Here's what the SEA NWS Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) says about next Friday:

"THE SECOND SYSTEM IS IN THIS LATEST 18Z RUN OF THE GFS A 975MB LOW INTO CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND 12Z FRIDAY. THE WRFGFS EXTENSION MADE THAT LOOK LIKE A REAL WINDSTORM AND JUST COUNTING THE GRADIENT OFF THE GFS GIVES PDX-BLI ARND 20MB 18Z FRIDAY."

That could be nasty, but things can really change in that time period, too. For those who are interested, the AFD's are an interesting, though a little technical, insight into the thinking the NWS puts into the forecasts: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/get.php?wfo=sew&pil=AFD&sid=SEW

Just checked the latest WRF-GFS 12K off the UW website. Are you kidding me??? If this thing verifies, we are in trouble!!! Those who like bland weather are not going to be happy. Can you imagine 10 days of snow, followed by a major windstorm, followed by more snow? Will be following this one closely. Note: The cold air that looks to follow the Friday system looks impressive.

Re: Interested Aviator's message... the discussions from the NWS are nice to read what they are thinking, but it can be frustrating for many of us who like weather because they always put the weather into a negative light. If there's weather going on or forecasted, it's "bad." It's only "good" if there's nothing going on. They like to continue pressing it into people's minds that that's the only way it is, just like the media.

the experience of getting weather from a non media guy who actually studies the stuff reminds me of my experience teaching a class on the dog for the experimental college 30 years ago.

I'd read every dog book, had them all my life and realized that they are a bundle of nuances capable of going in many directions and that the important thing was to bond with them so you both trusted and learned from each other.

The class had trouble grasping this.

And then I brought in a little twit with a whistle and a martinet dog and she was sure of everything, talked in black and white with crisp corners and they ate her up. Just swallowed everything.

Oh how people love simple truths. (it's sunday)

But nothing is simple.

Come the storm I wish I could be hanging off a tree above a waterfall ala john muir, but I best be protecting my bulkhead.

If this is going to be a winter to remember then lets have even more to remember. We can't change the weather so I vote yes for another round of storms. 2009 is going to be a much better year than 08 has ended up being, so weather gods, give us your best shot!!!! Not too much though.

Cliff -- Thanks for the "heads up" on the impending wind storm. I appreciate that you acknowledge that predicting such an event over four days out might seem like "hype." (I'm sure the guy on FOX 13 will use the possibility of Big Weather to sell all the advertisement they can. Snow, ice, rain, muck -- I can handle. Wind, though, can send a few Dour Firs crashing through my house, and that isn't good.

Union Mills, Currently 35.8F, overnight low 34.5F, high in the last 24 hours 41F. Went to the nearest Trader Joe's last night, in University Park- amazing how much less snow as soon as one gets to the top of the grade at Dupont going toward Tacoma on I-5. Still more snow than thaw over most of my place, and on any lawns around here without snowmen.

My least favorite bit of snow-clearance was a series of parking lots along (Lakewood Way, I think?) a busy street with many pedestrians and lots of bus stops where snow from business, church, and apartment complex entrances was packed on-top of the driveway, so pedestrians had no safe passage. The churches, especialy; I feel like making "How Would Christ Shovel?" signs for each of them.

I do hope if we have another snow people have learned from this one and are carrying shovels in their cars and cleaning up their personal street access. Without, one hopes, impairing the ability of others to walk or drive.

"1. What do GFS, NAM, ECMWF stand for? Or, "what are the various models that are used in forecasting?"

GFS, GFS90, GFS40, NAM, NAM40, NAM12, ECMWF, Canadian, WRF-GFS, MM5-NAM, RUC, etc. Obviously you are dealing with NOAA, which could really mean the "National Organization for the Advancement of Acronyms rather than the "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration." "

Aw crap. We have lost power three times in the last week...a ringtail buster of a storm on Friday would surely put us in the dark again! The storm two years ago picked up my little greenhouse and smashed it to the ground. Our 18 inches of snow is slowly melting..it would be nice to recover from one storm before being hit with another one! That said, I am a weather geek and love your blog.