We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. It decomposes the evolution of TFR in three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division’s current deterministic projection methodology, which assumes that fertility will eventually fall below replacement level. It models the decline in TFR as the sum of two logistic functions that depend on the current TFR level, and a random term. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to project future TFR based on both the country’s TFR history and the pattern of all countries. It is estimated from United Nations estimates of past TFR in all countries using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The post-transition low fertility phase is modeled using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level. The method is evaluated using out-of-sample projections for the period since 1980 and the period since 1995, and is found to be well calibrated.

Institute for Research and Information in Health Economics [IRDES] Working Paper: “Effect of a French Experiment of Team Work between General Practitioners and Nurses on Efficacy and Cost of Type 2 Diabetes Patients Care,” by Julien Mousquès, Yann Bourgueil, Philippe Le Fur, and Engin Yilmaz (Working Paper No. 2010/01, January 2010, .pdf format, 20p.). Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:

World Institute for Development Economics Research [United Nations University] Working Papers:

A. “Economic Adversity and Entrepreneurship-led Growth: Lessons from the Indian Software Sector,” by Suma Athreye (2010/04, January 2010, .pdf format, 18p.). Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:

New Zealand Treasury/Kaitohutohu Kaupapa Rawa Working Paper: “Challenges and Choices: Modelling New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Position,” by Matthew Bell, Gary Blick, Oscar Parkyn, Paul Rodway and Polly Vowles (WP 10-01, January 2010, .pdf format, 85p., with data and graphs from the paper available in Microsoft Excel format). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

January 28, 2010

University of Texas at Austin Population Research Center EU Summer Program: “The Population Research Center at the University of Texas at Austin, in collaboration with the Department of Sociology, is hosting the Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) program in Immigration, Geography, and Race/Ethnicity in the U.S. for the summer of 2010. This eight-week summer program, which is funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation (but also with significant contributions from the UT Population Research Center, Department of Sociology, Graduate School and College of Liberal Arts), offers eight very selective upper-division undergraduate students from both UT-Austin and from around the country the opportunity to study social demography through course work and a mentored research experience with senior PRC graduate students. The program pays for tuition, room and board, and computer expenses. REU students also receive a $4,000 stipend for participation in the program, which allows the selected students to fully concentrate on their REU experience over the 2-month program. Students register for a 3-hour summer course in during the first half of the summer, then dedicate the second half of the summer to their own projects in collaboration with their graduate student mentor and under the overall guidance of the faculty co-directors, Nestor Rodriguez and Rebecca Torres. Student papers are then presented at the fall meeting of the Southern Demographic Association. Former students from the REU program are now on the faculties of Johns Hopkins University, Rice University, Pennsylvania State University, University of Texas at Austin, University of Kansas, University of Denver, and more, and currently in social science graduate programs at the Universities of Wisconsin, Chicago, North Carolina, Texas, Pennsylvania, Indiana, California at Los Angeles, and California at Santa Cruz, as well as Stanford University, Texas A&M University, Pennsylvania State University, and more. This program is specifically geared toward students with junior standing who are seriously thinking about attending graduate school in the social sciences and, particularly, in sociology, demography, or geography.

The 2010 summer REU Program application deadline is February 28th, 2010.” For more information see:

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: The latest issue, Vol. 59, No. 3, Jan. 29, 2010 (HTML and .pdf format) is available from the US Centers for Disease Control site). Note: To access this issue in the future, simply click on “Weekly Report” and then “Current Volume” or “Past Volumes” on the left side of the page.

US Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy Report: “Income and Wealth: How Did Households Owning Small Businesses Fare from 1998 to 2007?” by George W. Haynes (No. 357, January 2010, .pdf format, 51p.).

I discuss the measurement of world poverty and inequality, with particular attention to the role of PPP price indexes from the International Comparison Project. Global inequality increased with the latest revision of the ICP, and this reduced the global poverty line relative to the US dollar. The recent large increase of nearly half a billion globally poor people came from an inappropriate updating of the global poverty line, not from the ICP revisions. Even so, PPP comparisons between widely different countries rest on weak theoretical and foundations. I argue for wider use of self-reports from international monitoring surveys, and for a global poverty line that is truly denominated in US dollars.

KaiserEdu.org… Funding Opportunity: Kaiser Family Foundation KaiserEdu has announced an essay contest with monetary prizes for first and second place. Undergraduate and graduate students will be judged separately. “It is January 2015. What do you see as the major health policy challenges still facing the nation? Please identify the top two priorities and discuss how they should be addressed.” Deadline for essays is Mar. 8, 2010. For more information see:

Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) [University of Essex, Colchester, UK] Working Paper: “Disability Benefits for Older People: How Does the UK Attendance Allowance System Really Work?” by Stephen Pudney (WP2010-02, January 2010, .pdf format, 32p.). Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:

American Enterprise Institute Periodical: Health Policy Outlook (No. 1, January 2010, .pdf and HTML format, 5p.). The title article of this issue is “Six Ways Not to Reform Health Care,” by John E. Calfee.

A. “Data from the PSID 2009 Housing, Mortgage Distress, and Wealth have now been released into the public domain and can be accessed at the PSID Data Center” (data in SAS format, documentation in .pdf format).