Monday, 12 October 2009

UPDATED: Bagan Pinang By-Election:Chinese and Indian Voters Returned to UMNO/BN. Selangor PAS's Hassan Ali's Role in PAS's Disastrous Result

Quote:

" ... (On the swing of Chinese votes to UMNO/BN), the Chinese community has been keeping a close watch on Pakatan's progress, especially in Selangor, since the last general election.

They see that we are not serious in proving our unity with the internal conflicts we have been facing lately.

The Chinese wanted to send a clear signal to Pakatan to teach us a lesson.

Pakatan need to be more serious in addressing the woes faced by the INDIAN community. Pakatan is not doing enough. In the last (general) election we got strong support from the Indian community... they had no choice, there was no alternative and they had high expectations of Pakatan.

I would say that their (Indian) support is not as solid as it was in the last election (for Pakatan)..." Read here for more- Salahuddin Ayub, PAS Vice-President

A landslide win for Mohd. Isa could only signify a few pertinent things.

Bagan Pinang is a small township:

It has three army camps and eight army outfits within its boundaries.

It has registered voter base of 13,664 voters (14,192 in 2008) made up from 62.3% Malays, 20.7% Indians, 11% Chinese and 6% Others.

Postal votes account for 33.7% of the total votes.

The turnout according to the Election Commission is 81.65%.

The Election Result:

Mohd. Isa collected 8,013 votes (71.8 %). Of which, 3,521 came from postal votes (ie 31.6 %). To be fair, the postal votes were real killers. To win 85.4% of the postal votes or 31.6% of the total votes finished off whatever high hopes Pakatan dreamt of. Even if there were zero postal votes or if the votes were tied, Isa would nevertheless have had an easy romp home.

The Malay vote only accounted for 62.3% but Mohd. Isa won by 71.8%. Hypothetically, if 80% of the Malays voted for Isa, that would mean that only 50% of the 71.8% is accounted for.

Where did the other 21.8% come from?

The answer is easy. It came from the Indian and Chinese voters.

The total of both the Indian and Chinese voters is 31.8%.This means that more than two-thirds (68.6%) of Chinese and Indians voted for Mohd. Isa.

The swing back to BN is 14.2% (from 2008).

Implications for Pakatan Rakyat

Pakatan had better start doing something about it cos they need to win over such rural voters, and not just rely on the urban voters.

Relying on the non-Malay voters in Bagan Pinang was evidently disastrous.

In 2008, about 80% of the Indians and 65% of the Chinese voted opposition. (These figures are obtained from political analyst Dr Wan Abdul Rahman Wan Abdul Latiff.) That is approximately 74.8% non-Malays voting for the opposition. Now it has dropped to 31.4%.

What exactly happened here? Can the actions of one PAS Commissioner (in Selangor) be so damning on another PAS Commissioner (in Negeri Sembilan)?

Why are these state seats so important when the formation of the federal government is decided by parliamentary seats?

The answer is this – can Pakatan guarantee parliamentary victory during the next elections?

If the answer is in the negative, then it is these state governments that Pakatan must attempt to secure and subsequently be utilized as a home base to propagate the Opposition ideology and to inhibit the BN propaganda.

So, what does this BN victory means? It damn well means a lot of things but mostly, it means that :

Pakatan can no longer contend to split the Malay vote and allow the non-Malay vote to be the deciding factor.

The NON -Malay votes are not entirely swinging to the Opposition.

Rural voters are still voting for BN.

Time for Pakatan to start selecting their potential candidates now and permit them the time to start campaigning in their selected constituencies.

Pakatan needs to be more prominent in the rural constituencies.

Public spats between the three parties and party back stabbing are having a definite negative effect on the voters.

If Pakatan does nothing, the next election is as good as lost.

2013 is another 3 years plus of BN rule and Najib will be utilising this time to consolidate his position.

If Pakatan does not make any progress between now and then, it will be 2018 before anything can be done and who knows whether Malaysia will still be solvent then.

Commentary:

From Straight-Talk Blog

Isa Samad won because he was a very popular chief minister of Negri Sembilan. The Chinese community had benefited from his largess. Yes, kiss the hand that feeds you. Never mind if it was something a chief minister or any elected representative was supposed to do - taking care of his people's interests.

Never mind if he was corrupted. A number of Malaysian Chinese still believe that it is okay for a leader to be corrupted as long as he/she can bring development. Read here for more

From Nutgraph

According to political analyst Prof Dr James Chin, from Monash University, Sunway Campus: "Voters are also probably starting to doubt if the PR can hold it together after all its recent bickering." Chin says the constant outbursts by Selangor exco from PAS Datuk Dr Hasan Ali, and the Penang government's handling of the Kampung Buah Pala affair, could have also dented the PR's image quite badly.." Read here for more

From "Imagine" Blog

The fact that PAS got handily knocked down should serve to teach PAS (and the Opposition in general) several lessons.

PAS has yet got lots of leg-work to do – especially in Umno’s backyard:

to bring a bigger chunk of the Malay electorate (the military notwithstanding) along.

Second, (PAS's) ability to attract the non-Malay vote especially where PAS’ credentials are still suspect. This latter point, of course, should serve as an unambiguous reminder to the fanatic faction of PAS that steering the party to the fringes of extremism will only serve to make them a perpetually regional party with a naturally limited appeal.

It is not going to be good enough for PAS to merely harp on Umno’s failings; it is going to have to emerge as a party with a MODERATE agenda.

(What ) Bagan Pinang reminds is that PAS CANNOT assume that it will become the default beneficiary of Umno’s ailment.

While Umno may be corrupted and may even field a tainted candidate, the fact remains that voters in Bagan Pinang and many other pockets of the country will still opt for Umno than PAS.

However, PAS can do wonders to change that scenario if it can craft a moderate enough message and image to appeal to the centrist voters.

PAS’ breakthrough will come precisely when it can win in a demographic such as Bagan Pinang. And that will require being able to reach enough non-Malay and Malay centrist voters.

Umno’s corruption may be disgusting, but enough voters still seem to be suspicious of PAS’ EXTREMISTS. Read here for more

From "DNight Caller" Blog

PR's has not been blending well in Selangor with the continual bickerings between Hassan Ali and DAP.

I say Hassan Ali because he is the only person coming out with statement after statement, contradicting to PR's wishes and aspirations.

PAS failed to contain Hassan Ali and at the same time did not indicate that they are totally behind Hassan Ali's stand regarding the many issues surrounding PR government in Selangor.

With the "not here, neither there" stand, PAS under the leadership of Hadi Awang fails to take a firm stand on those issues.

Granted that PAS and DAP reached some sort of consensus during Bagan Pinang by-election campaign period. However, the consensus appears to be superficial at best. This can be sensed with the lack of "controversies" raised by the controversial Hassan Ali. If only someone in PAS monitors his statements then PAS would have anticipated that they are on the losing end in Bagan Pinang when Hassan Ali did not issue any controversial statement during the campaign period. Read here for more