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Even as apartment supply ticked up in many markets, just six of 79 metro areas saw declines in effective rents for the third quarter, writes Barbara Byrne Denham at Reis.

The multifamily sector is containing the effects of increased supply on occupancy, as the national vacancy rate increased by just 10 basis points during the third quarter to 4.5%, a smaller-than-expected uptick, Reis said Tuesday. Even as vacancies rose during Q3, so did both asking and effective rents on a national basis.

The average asking rent grew 1.0% in Q3, just under the average quarterly growth rate of 1.1% seen over the previous six quarters. Similarly, effective rent growth was 0.9% in the quarter, also just below the average seen over the prior six quarters: 1.0%.

Reis notes that the gap between asking rent growth and effective rent growth had widened in recent quarters to 20 bps. Accordingly, the firm’s senior economist, Barbara Byrne Denham, writes that the narrower gap in Q3 suggests that landlords’ offers of free rent have become less aggressive, thanks in part to stronger housing prices that are keeping more potential home buyers in rentals. As a case in point, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday that sales of existing homes were down 3.4% in August, simultaneously with S&P Dow Jones Indices reporting that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index rose 5.9% in July compared a year ago.

McLEAN, VA–Nothing, it seems, can dent the growth story that is multifamily. Despite a pipeline that is expected to peak in the second half of this year and remain elevated into 2018, Freddie Mac believes that while vacancy rates will increase, they will do so more slowly than expected. “Employment growth is expected to remain near 2016 growth levels and demand for multifamily units to stay strong due to lifestyle preferences and demographic trends,” it explains in its mid-year outlook for the category.

Indeed, forecasts of higher wage growth is expected to spur even more housing demand, it said.

The sum of these trends is that vacancy rates for the rest of 2017 have been revised downward to 4.7%. Meanwhile rent growth is expected to remain strong for the remainder of the year, possibly exceeding the 2016 rate, it said.

Our team enjoyed a little down time together in one of Raleigh's Escape Rooms, an interactive game where players enter a themed, immersive environment and work together to follow clues, solve logic puzzles, and find the key to escape within 1 hour. Teams are allowed up to three hints. The Blue Heron team "escaped" with almost 20 minutes to spare and with no hints! We believe this is a truetestament to the collaborative, hands-on culture that we work hard to foster at Blue Heron!

North Carolina has plenty of buttresses to support a strong multifamily market, it seems. In addition to Charlotte, the Tar Heel State offers Raleigh and Durham, about 25 miles apart, as markets that are best able to absorb the deliveries of newly constructed units. In its first quarter roundup, JLL found that the cities of Raleigh and Durham were among the cities that absorbed at least 2.0 percent of new construction from 2016. If that sounds like a market able to withstand cyclical challenges, consider that the area is home to three major U.S. universities: Duke University, the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and North Carolina State University. Low cost of living contributes to steady population growth, which expanded by 6.4 percent due to net migration from 2011 to 2015, according to the U.S. News & World Report.

Commercial real estate in the U.S. is at a turning point, with primary markets like New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco showing signs of overheating—that’s according to online marketplace for real-estate investments RealtyMogul.com. As is common in this phase of a real-estate cycle, secondary and tertiary markets across the country are where the new action is, the firm claims. So Barron’s Penta asked its real-estate team to identify the top commercial real-estate markets that high-net-worth investors should be looking at. Here they are, in order of preference.

Number 3 and 4 on the list: Nashville and Raleigh!

Nashville. The cost of doing business in Music City, U.S.A. is 20% less than in the rest of the country, claims Helman, and that’s attracting new firms to the area. More than 200 companies have relocated to or expanded in the hip city’s metro area, accounting for 25,000 new jobs and 15 million new square feet of commercial real estate coming online in the 24 months leading up to May. Nashville also has one of the nation’s best recession hedges, as the capital of the U.S. health-care management industry, Helman says. “Whether the economy is good or bad, people still need health care,” she says. There is plenty of opportunity building multifamily housing units, as the city’s population growth outpaces the current supply of properties.

Raleigh. Highly paid young folks are moving into the city in large numbers, with the 20-year-old to 34-year-old crowd accounting for more than 23% of the city’s total population. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Duke University provide a continuous flow of budding, educated workers to Raleigh’s relatively high paying tech and pharmaceutical jobs, says Helman. They aren’t “going to have the capital to buy [a home], but will rent one,” she says. Investors should target rental apartment buildings and multifamily housing units. Homeownership is relatively affordable with the ratio of median home price to median household income higher than the national average, which is also an argument for purchasing multifamily housing units targeted at an older age group.

The Carolinas

Job growth is solid in the major metropolitan areas of North and South Carolina, with large metro areas accounting for most of the growth in the two states. Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, and Charleston, South Carolina, rank among the fastest-growing metro areas in the country, says Mark Vitner, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte.

“This past decade has seen a move back into the urban centers that has benefited the Carolinas’ larger MSAs [metropolitan statistical areas] the most,” he adds. “Young people are flocking back into the cities, and businesses are moving back toward the city center in order to attract those workers.”

Employment in North Carolina is expected to increase 2.3 percent this year and personal income by 4.4 percent, Vitner says. New single-family home starts will expand by 9.5 percent, but following several years of strong gains, multifamily housing starts in North Carolina remain essentially flat. Employment in South Carolina will rise 2.7 percent and personal incomes by 4.7 percent, with new home starts up 7.7 percent and multifamily starts rising 2.5 percent.

“The Carolinas are being driven by a combination of expansions by new industry into the state and some revival in traditional sectors, including textiles and furniture,” adds Vitner. “Retirees moving to the region are helping drive new home construction and growth in health care and professional services. South Carolina continues to benefit from aggressive economic development efforts. Manufacturing activity has held up solidly, with the automotive sector and aerospace industries leading the way.”

Out-of-state capital is flowing into the Carolinas, says Chang.

“Investors are drawn by more affordable entry costs and the potential for higher returns than are available in their home markets,” he says. “The increasing supply of new multifamily properties near downtown cores is keeping institutional investors active. First-year returns in this tier of the market typically begin in the 5 percent range in Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro/Winston-Salem [in North Carolina], Greenville/Spartanburg, Columbia, and Charleston [in South Carolina].”

In the Charlotte city center, an estimated 5.3 million square feet (492,000 sq m) of office space, more than 775,000 square feet (72,000 sq m) of retail space, 9,725 housing units, and 2,600 hotel rooms are either under construction or planned, says Jon Wilson, principal at Raleigh-based consulting firm Kimley-Horn.

Kimley-Horn is involved with a number of developments, including Atlanta-based Portman Holdings’ 19-story, 370,000-square-foot (34,000 sq m) 615 South College, which is scheduled to be completed early this summer.

“The city continues to be a hot spot for a highly educated and skilled workforce—some 17,500 new degreed residents move to Charlotte each year—and improved mobility will play a role in catalyzing future growth,” Wilson says. Later this year, the Lynx Blue Line extension will be completed, allowing people to travel on light rail from Interstate 485 in southwest Charlotte through Uptown to the University of North Carolina–Charlotte in the northeast, he says. The city also broke ground in mid-January on the second phase of the CityLynx Gold Line streetcar.

Walkable urban and mixed-use communities are definitely on the rise in many of the state’s cities, says Gary Cline, president and managing principal at Cline Design Associates of Raleigh.

“As our area rapidly grows, more people are seeking residency in urban cores and mixed-use communities where they can walk or bike to work, dining, and retail,” Cline says. “The Research Triangle office market has also made a large comeback, with less than 10 percent overall vacancy. Some submarkets like downtown Durham report less than 1 percent vacancy in Class A space.”

Demand is strong for mixed-use developments such as Kane Realty’s Smokey Hollow–Peace Street mixed-use project in Raleigh, which will have 434 multifamily units and 61,000 square feet (6,000 sq m) of retail space, with estimated completion in 2019. The project was designed by Cline Design. Another project in downtown Durham scheduled to begin construction later this year is Northwood Ravin’s Van Alen, which will have 418 units in 12 stories.

A new report digs into the metrics of America’s emerging tech hubs, and finds some surprises.

High-tech talent is a key driver of the wealth and competitiveness of cities. But it’s highly concentrated in places across the United States and the world, following a winner-take-all pattern and reinforcing the geographic inequality that underpins our broader economic and political divides.

While all of America’s top-ranked tech cities have a highly-skilled and highly-educated workforce, a whole host of other factors could shape which city is best positioned to be the next Silicon Valley. That’s a key takeaway from a new index created by real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield that identifies America’s 25 leading high-tech metro areas in 2016. The report covers some familiar ground—but it also contains some surprises.

Nashville's opportunities for young workers are growing, and recent college grads are noticing.

Music City ranked as the third-most attractive city for college graduates this year, according to an annual study by SmartAsset. The city's ranking rose significantly from the previous year, when it came in at No. 12.

Recent college graduates are flocking to Nashville for its employment levels, affordability and character. Improved job opportunities are most responsible for Nashville's increased rank.

The city's unemployment rate for bachelor's degree holders improved from 2.4 percent in 2016 to 1.5 percent in 2017, the sixth-best in the US. Nashville ranks No. 14 for employment overall, with a total unemployment rate of 3.6 percent, up from last year's rate of 4 percent.

Nashville's cost of living improved over the past year as well, although living in the Tennessee capital still costs about 5 percent more than the average American city.

In terms of fun, Nashville boasts the fourth-highest concentration of dining and entertainment establishments nationwide, providing an environment with an upbeat personality and social atmosphere, according to the SmartAsset analysis.

"There are some cities that have a mix of things that make for a great quality of life," said AJ Smith, a vice president of financial education for SmartAsset who led the analysis. "We see cities like Cincinnati, Columbus and Nashville ranking highly in that."

It has been a busy couple of years for Maurice Malfatti and the team that he and partner Ron Strom have been assembling at Blue Heron Asset Management, a real estate management group that flipped its focus in 2011 to investing capital through pooled investment funds.

In addition to moving their corporate office from Chapel Hill to a hip new space at Pilot Mill in downtown Raleigh, they’ve cashed out of nearly all the investments made with their first fund initiated in 2011, the $26 million Blue Heron Real Estate Opportunity Fund I.

Malfatti now confirms that the firm has closed out fundraising efforts for its second fund, Blue Heron Real Estate Opportunity Fund II, with a total commitment of $39 million from 35 institutional investor groups and high-net worth individuals and families.

“We’re taking an opportunistic strategy,” Malfatti says.

In Fund I, Blue Heron had five real estate investments – all in the Triangle – highlighted by the $30 million mixed-use Village at Marquee Station in Fuquay-Varina that Blue Heron helped finance and develop. The fund in March 2016 exited that project with the $41.5 million sale of the 265-unit apartment community.

For Fund II, Blue Heron is spreading its wings with acquisitions so far already in Charlotte; Nashville, Tennessee; and Frederick, Maryland; as well as Raleigh and Durham. “Our big focus in 2016 was achieving our goals for Fund I and identifying good investments for Fund II,” he says.

In Raleigh, Fund II’s portfolio includes the 55-unit Historic Boylan Apartments near downtown, having paid $6.3 million for the property in 2015. The plan is to renovate the apartments.

Blue Heron is also reworking development plans for its property at 539 Foster St. in downtown Durham, its last remaining investment from Fund I. Malfatti says the group plans to deploy some of the capital from Fund II toward future development of the site. Blue Heron had earlier envisioned building a five-story residential condominium building, but it pulled the plug on those plans in September. Malfatti says they are working on a new idea to redevelop the site for a multifamily building with street-level retail.

Malfatti says he and Strom have also promoted Michael Eubanks, who has been with the firm that has grown to eight employees since 2012, as a third partner. “Ron and I couldn’t be more thrilled for Michael to be taking an ownership stake alongside us in Blue Heron,” Malfatti says.

WASHINGTON, DC--The US will need to build more than 4.6 million new apartment homes across a range of price points by 2030.

We can scrap the talk of the apartment market becoming over-saturated — at least in the long term. A new report has determined that the US will need to build more than 4.6 million new apartment homes across a range of price points by 2030. This is according to research from Hoyt Advisory Services, which was commissioned by the National Multifamily Housing Council and the National Apartment Association.

As for the market becoming over-saturated in the immediate term, we can nix talk about that as well, per the report. It has found that currently nearly 39 million people live in apartments, and the apartment industry is quickly exceeding capacity.

In fact we can rewrite the entire narrative that the multifamily sector is in danger of being overbuilt. The research has found that it will take building an average of at least 325,000 new apartment homes every year to meet demand; yet, on average, just 244,000 apartments were delivered from 2012 through 2016.

Economic Impact

This is important on many levels. One, it is welcome news to the CRE industry, which has been listening to and wondering about the steady drumbeat of warnings about the apartment sector. Two, apartment growth has wider implications for the whole US economy.

The strong demand for apartments along with the need to renovate the 11.7 million units of aging apartment stock across the country will affect the US economy in a positive way for years, Caitlin Walter, director of Research for the NMHC tells GlobeSt.com.

In general, apartments and their 39 million residents contribute $1.3 trillion to the US economy and generates about 12.3 million jobs annually, according to a NMHC stat.

This includes new construction, operations maintenance and spending by residents at local stores or coffee shops, she said.

“Apartments and their residents make a difference and help support the local economy.”

At this point it would be fair for one to wonder about the many reports that the fundamentals in multifamily sector are slowing. Rent growth, vacancy — all have shown signs of a market that is nearing the point of where supply has exceeded demand.

This is certainly true but as the report makes clear it is mainly the case for class A and luxury buildings. These categories have been overbuilt, in part because they bring in more income but also in part because it can be difficult to pencil in new development for workforce housing.

Diving Into the Demand Drivers

There are a number of reasons for this log jam on the apartment sector’s supply-demand continuum — some of which have been identified before.

Changing lifestyles. People are delaying marriage and starting a family — the two main drivers for home purchases in the past. In 1960, 44% of all households in the US were married couples with children. Today, it’s less than one in five (19%), and this trend is expected to continue, according to the report.

The upshot: More than 75 million people between 18 and 34 years old are entering the housing market, primarily as renters, according to Norm Miller, principal at Hoyt Advisory Services and professor of Real Estate at the University of San Diego.

Demographics. People are growing older and as they do they are opting to live in apartments. This is particularly true in the northeast, where renters ages 55-plus will account for more than 30% of rental households.

“Increasingly, Baby Boomers and other empty nesters are trading single-family houses for the convenience of rental apartments. In fact, more than half of the net increase in renter households over the past decade came from the 45-plus demographic,” Miller said.

Immigration growth. International immigration is expected to account for half (51%) of all new population growth in the US, especially along the border states.

This population increase will contribute to the rising demand for apartments. Research has shown that immigrants have a higher propensity to rent and typically rent for longer periods of time.

Regional Breakdown

Of course, real estate, as always, is a market by market story and this report is no exception. It is telling, however, that there is no city or region that was identified as having enough supply to meet the expected demand.

Some markets are worse than others, though. For example, Raleigh, NC, is projected to need 69% more supply over what it currently has over a 13-year period, Paula Munger, NAA’s director of Industry Research & Analysis, tells GlobeSt.com.

“Charlotte, Austin, Vegas and Orlando — they will need 40% or more [new supply] over what they currently have.”

THE DICKSON FAMILY WILL CO-OWN SOLIS NINTH STREET WITH BLUE HERON ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC.Terwilliger Pappas Multifamily Partners sold its stake in the 229-unit property.

HFF closed the recapitalization of Solis Ninth Street, a 229-unit, Class A multifamily asset in Durham, N.C. The firm assisted the Dickson family, which has been involved in property since its rezoning. The family’s joint venture developer and co-owner, Terwilliger Pappas Multifamily Partners, sold its stake in the asset. HFF also arranged a new joint venture equity partnership with Raleigh, N.C.-based Blue Heron Asset Management LLC. This is the sixth acquisition for Blue Heron’s Real Estate Opportunity Fund II.

Located at 810 9th St., the multifamily asset is in the heart of Durham County, just minutes from Duke University, Duke Medical Center, Whole Foods, Harris Teeter, as well as various restaurants, shops, gyms, bars and entertainment venues. Completed in 2016, the property has 229 units spread across 187,961 square feet, with an average unit size of 821 square feet. Amenities include a saltwater swimming pool, outdoor lounge with grilling area and fire pit, fitness center, an 8,000-square-foot clubhouse, business center, coffee bar, pet spa and garage parking. The property also has 10,000 square feet of ground-floor retail space. The asset is in the process of being rebranded as 810|Ninth.

“810|Ninth—our largest single investment to date—is a solid addition to our fund, which targets investments in southeastern U.S. markets, such as Durham, that exhibit strong job and population growth and diverse economic drivers,” said Blue Heron Managing Partner Maurice Malfatti, in a prepared statement.

The HFF team involved in this deal was led by Managing Directors Justin Good and Jeff Glenn and Directors Cory Fowler and Allan Lynch.

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. — The Research Triangle metro region places No. 5 in a new study of "Tech Cities" from international corporate real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield, which specializes on the high-tech sector.

The firm, which has an office in the Triangle, ranks the cities based on what it calls a "tech stew" of factors, including:

Work force talent

Capital

Growth opportunities

Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill are often broken up in other reports due to federal government Metropolitan Statistical Area statistics, which split Raleigh from the other two.

However, the Cushman & Wakefield analysis groups the three along with Cary and other towns and communities, thus creating a grid of data that captures the region as a whole.

And a powerful region it is, given that the only cities/regions to beat the Triangle include:

“Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, often referred to as the ‘Triangle’ by locals because of the shape these three proximate cities form on a map, has developed into a major market for technology companies given the area’s deep pool of skilled labor, the presence of three prominent universities, and its reputation as a medical and technology research hub,” said Rich Harris, Managing Principal for Cushman & Wakefield, who focuses on the Triangle.

Cushman & Wakefield created the “Tech Cities 1.0” report to provide greater insight for its clients and industry stakeholders into existing and emerging tech centers that are driving much of today’s U.S. economy.

Harris also pointed out the Triangle's booming startup community with hundreds of new and emerging ventures alone packing The American Underground and HQ Raleigh startup hubs. Various other startup and co-location hubs also boast a growing clientele.

Triangle perspective

Here's what Harris had to say about the Triangle:

“It’s not uncommon to see a doctor leave a career at a hospital to start a company based on decades of research, or a technology executive at one of the major R&D companies in the Park leaving a position to pursue a specialized line of technology that’s too specific for a larger company to pursue; and they often separate amicably and with the backing of their previous employers. Once they start their companies, the feeder of local graduates – coupled with the talent migrating to the Triangle – serve as a potent workforce.”

“One of the more interesting transformations has been the impact of the ‘live-work-play’ phenomenon, which has rapidly built up our city centers across the Triangle, particularly in downtown Durham where there was an abundance of historic tobacco warehouses that were converted to sleek tech workspaces with hardwood floors, big bay windows, large timbers, and high ceilings.

“Most of these buildouts were aided by historic tax credits, which enabled companies to create one-of-a-kind destination spaces for tech companies. In both Raleigh and Durham, we have seen a proliferation of co-working and entrepreneurial support organizations such as the Council for Entrepreneurial Development, American Underground, Raleigh HQ, and others.”

“Other factors contributing to tech growth are more basic,” Mr. Harris elaborated, “such as the Triangle’s quality of life, which boasts direct access to the beach to the east and the Blue Ridge Mountains to the west. The Triangle is also very competitive from a cost-of-living standpoint, especially when compared to first-tier city tech hotbeds that are often triple the price to do business.”

Cushman & Wakefield employs some 45,000 people across more than 70 countries.

Nashvillians like to joke that the crane is the city’s unofficial bird.

After all, nearly 30 of the huge, steel species soar in the sky right now.

Music City is in the midst of a building boom, with 22 hotels under construction and more than 125 restaurants slated to open by the year’s end, according to the tourism bureau.

At the same time, there’s a creative renaissance underway, as the city’s thriving music, fashion and food scenes gain national attention. Tennessee’s capital is so happening that both Frommer’s and Travel & Leisure included it on their lists of the best places to go in 2017 and Thrillist recently named Guitar Town America’s best weekend destination.

“Nashville has always been cool, but today people seem to be more proud of the city than ever before,” says Libby Callaway, founder of The Callaway, a branding and public relations company (and former fashion editor of The Post) based there. “We’re an alternative to the coasts.”

Over the past decade, the home of country music evolved into a hipster hub with a strong “maker” culture of craft and creativity. Visitors can explore funky neighborhoods like East Nashville, 12South, Germantown and the Gulch, lined with specialty coffee shops, brew pubs, craft cocktail bars and critically acclaimed farm-to-fork restaurants.

Or scour the quirky lifestyle and clothing boutiques for local labels such as Ceri Hoover (leather bags and shoes) and Imogene + Willie (heritage denim).

Cowboy boots are always in style — Boot Country on major thoroughfare Broadway has a crazy buy-one-get-two-pairs-free deal — rocked the Coachella way.

Speaking of all-star concert extravaganzas, the world’s biggest country music celebration takes place downtown from June 8-11.

This year’s CMA Music Festival will feature more than 100 acts, including legends like Keith Urban, Blake Shelton, Miranda Lambert and Dierks Bentley.

The best part: Seven of the 11 stages are free and a number of them are outdoors.

Later this summer, produce and creativity will make beautiful music together at the 14th Annual Tomato Art Festival the weekend of Aug. 11-12.

Of course, Nashville doesn’t need festivals to be fun as hell: Cold beer and live music are on tap seven days a week. Country, blues and rock acts perform nightly at the boozy, neon-lit Lower Broadway honky tonks — don’t miss Robert’s Western World with its $2.50 Pabst Blue Ribbon and no-cover policy — and nearby Printer’s Alley, the historic nightlife corridor. Meanwhile, The Station Inn in the trendy Gulch is the premier club for bluegrass and roots performers.

Even if you’re not a country music fan, a visit to the Ryman Auditorium, the former home of the Grand Ole Opry for 31 years, is obligatory. It’s worth paying extra for the guided tour, just to walk backstage where icons Johnny Cash met June Carter in 1956.

The Country Music Hall of Fame and Museum is another must-see, with Elvis’ gold Cadillac, Gram Parsons’ “high”-fashion pot leaf-embroidered “Nudie suit” and Taylor Swift’s “Shake It Off” cheerleader outfit on display. Hatch Show Print is the historic letterpress company in the same building that has cranked out iconic show posters since 1879.

Feeling hungry? Savor a meal at one of the restaurants opened by James Beard Award-winning chefs like Donald Link (Cochon Butcher), Sean Brock (Husk) and Maneet Chauhan (Chauhan Ale & Masala House, Tànsuo and The Mockingbird, opening any day).

The development team eyeing apartment project Gateway 808 in North Nashville anticipates breaking ground no later than early 2018.

Raleigh-based Blue Heron Asset Management and Imagine1 Co. of Nashville announced in May 2016 plans for the 330-unit building — to be located 1703 Rosa L. Parks Blvd. in Buena Vista north of Germantown and straddling the inner-interstate loop. At that time, it was called Gateway Germantown.

Recently, the team released an updated image (pictured) and the new name.

Michael Eubanks, a Blue Heron partner, said the hope is to have construction of the building completed by early 2020.

“There have been a lot of new apartments delivered downtown over the last couple of years, and Germantown has seen a number of those new developments,” Eubanks said. “We have been closely monitoring new supply, absorption, and concessions, and we've been happy with what we've seen lately. Leasing has been strong in the Germantown submarket, properties are getting close to stabilization, concessions have been dropping, and we expect to see that pattern continue as we're just now getting into the busiest time of the year for leasing.”

The lead architect is Charlotte-based DAS Architecture, with Gresham Smith & Partners of Nashville handling interior design and landscape architecture. Civil Site Design Group, also based in Nashville, is the civil engineer.

Eubanks said the team (Matt Gardner and Brian Heuser lead Imagine1 Co.) recently submitted for building permits and is “far along in the process of selecting a general contractor.” He said a portion of the equity for the project is being provided by one of the real estate funds that Blue Heron manages, and a joint-venture equity partner is expected.

“We also anticipate using bank or life company financing for the construction loan, and will be advancing those discussions after making a final decision about a general contractor for the project,” he added.

Spring is in the air, and that can mean only one thing: new Census population estimates, of course. The Census Bureau just released their eagerly anticipated (among a certain set) population estimates for 2016. Of particular interest is the year-over-year population change among U.S. metros, which helps shed some light on a few apartment market trends over the last year.

Among the 50 largest U.S. apartment markets as defined by RealPage’s Axiometrics, Austin had the largest population growth rate in 2016, at 2.9%. In fact, Austin has ranked #1 in terms of annual population growth since 2011. Raleigh and Orlando both grew about 2.5% between 2015 and 2016, followed by Charleston and Las Vegas (2.2%). One thing stands out quite clearly in the rankings above: the fastest-growing large apartment markets are southern or western metros.

DURHAM, NC – April 10, 2017 – Blue Heron Asset Management is pleased to announce it has successfully acquired an ownership interest in a 229-unit Class-A multi-family and 10,000 sq.ft. retail property on Ninth Street in Durham, formerly known as Solis Ninth Street. This is the sixth acquisition for Blue Heron’s Real Estate Opportunity Fund II.

The property, in the process of being rebranded as 810|Ninth, is located within walking distance of Duke University, Duke Medical Center, Whole Foods, Harris Teeter, numerous restaurants, shops, and other urban amenities including local gyms, bars, and entertainment venues. Maurice Malfatti, managing partner of Blue Heron, commented, “We are bullish on Durham and believe in its growth and innovation story. 810|Ninth – our largest single investment to date - is a solid addition to our fund, which targets investments in Southeastern US markets, like Durham, that exhibit strong job and population growth and diverse economic drivers. We love the walkability and neighborhood feel of Ninth Street and are excited to be part of the local ownership group that will own and operate the property for years to come.”

Property prices have returned to 2008 highs, but there are differences between then and now, says Turnill. For one, real estate development activity is lower and access to credit tighter. Valuations based on ratios of operating income to property values relative to the 10-year U.S. Treasuries are in the vicinity of the 20-year average.

We see U.S. commercial real estate delivering attractive total returns over the next few years in a low-return world. We expect capital appreciation to slow but see operating income growth due to the reflationary backdrop and the potential for property managers to add value by upgrading buildings. Average yields of 3.5% are competitive with 3.4% for U.S. investment grade and an S&P 500 dividend yield of 2%. Demand is strong: Nearly half of institutions in our most recent Global Institutional Rebalancing Survey intended to raise allocations to real estate this year.

Metropolitan areas in the United States and other mature economies face out-sized challenges in the aftermath of the Great Recession. At the most basic level, U.S. cities and metropolitan areas need more and better jobs. According to the March 2014 Brookings Metro Monitor, the number of jobs in 61 of the 100 largest U.S. metro areas are still lower than their pre-recession peak; incredibly, job levels in 23 metros are more than 5 percent below their pre-recession peak. At the same time, the number of people living in poverty and near poverty has grown precipitously in the largest 100 U.S. metros—from 48 million in 2000 to 66 million in 2012— due not only to the recession but broader trends around wage stagnation and economic restructuring.10 Beyond these economic and social demands, cities are on the front lines of addressing enormous scale and environmental challenges given federal gridlock and the absence of leadership in many states.

In the face of these challenges, cities and metropolitan areas are experimenting with new approaches to economic development and sustainable development that focus on growing jobs in productive, innovative, and traded sectors of the economy while concurrently equipping residents with the skills—particularly STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) skills —they need to compete for and succeed in these jobs.11 These new approaches try to build on the distinctive assets and advantages of disparate places rather than merely pursuing heavily subsidized consumption-oriented strategies (e.g., building the next sports stadium, convention center, or performing arts facility) that yield low quality jobs or aspiring to unrealistic economic goals (“becoming the next Silicon Valley”).

Innovation districts are a key part of the new wave of local economic development and advance several critical objectives...

In a crowded outdoor tent on a chilly Thursday morning, about 150 people gathered with circus performers and stakeholders from Longfellow Real Estate Partners and Duke University to launch the first phase of new construction on the Durham Innovation District in downtown.

The event marked the start of close to $100 million in new construction at the corner of Morris and Hunt streets for two seven-story office buildings – one of which has been fully preleased to Duke Clinical Research Institute – and a 1,200-vehicle, eight-story parking deck.

“To the people of Durham, this is your innovation district, and these will be your buildings," said Adam Sichol, co-founder and managing partner of Boston-based Longfellow, adding that he now considers Durham a “second home” with business trips to the Bull City almost weekly. "Today we’re betting on the future of Durham and its people.”

“Some other cities are constrained by ceilings and roofs, but in Durham, we know that the sky is the limit,” Sichol said, with a chuckle from the crowd at the expense of basketball great Michael Jordan’s “ceiling is the roof” blunder during a halftime speech at the recent UNC-Duke basketball game in Chapel Hill.

The Durham.ID office buildings, known as 200 Morris and 300 Morris, will together total nearly 350,000 square feet of office, research, retail and restaurant space on land that was previously a parking lot. Delays in the launch of construction have moved the completion timeline from spring 2018 to summer 2018.

Charlotte is number 1 on the list of a newly released study from Penske Truck Rental shows the cities where the most Americans have moved to in 2016. The study was put together by analyzing one-way moving truck reservations made through Penske’s website.