03 October 2016

Here’s the real reason Earth law won’t apply on Mars: there is no such legal term. One may talk about international law and national law as applying to outer space, but there is no such thing as "Earth law."

Actually, Jeffrey Carr's article is a political manifesto and not a legal treatise. Throughout his article, Carr does not cite any specific language of international space law or even demonstrate any familiarity with it. He mentions in passing only one substantive international legal instrument pertaining to outer space, to wit, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. He also mentions U.N. General Assembly Resolution 2222 (XXI); this was essentially "wrapping paper." the document by which the General Assembly announced the opening of the treaty for signature.

Writing in reaction to a recent Popular Science article, Carr asserts, "Sarah Fecht, presents a plausible, standard reading of applicable treaties and international law. Ultimately, she concludes that Earth law will certainly apply to Martian colonists." In fact, nowhere does Ms. Fetch make such a statement in her article. This is a misrepresentation, but it does give Carr a political soapbox to stand on for a few minutes. "Ms. Fecht is a heck of a science writer and editor," he writes. She is not an attorney, which would make it easy to scoff at her article, were it not for the fact that throughout the article she quotes Frans von der Dunk, Professor of Space Law at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Meanwhile, von der Dunk's name is conspicuously absent from Carr's article. That's right, he never mentions, much less take issue with him, not even once! Again, Carr has no legal argument, just political rhetoric.

So what are his politics? That Martians should have their own laws and govern themselves. All right, do I hear a dissenting opinion? How about you, Mr. or Ms. America, are you pro-Martian or anti-Martian?

Even Carr's political argument is a house of cards, drawing analogies from "Colonizing Earth as a Blueprint for Colonizing Mars." Why ever would we choose to have the barbarous past of European colonization guide our future efforts to colonize Mars? Shall we also return to burning witches and owning slaves, as they did back then?

Nowhere does Mr. Carr explain why "the Outer Space Treaty will quickly prove inadequate for the realities of an interplanetary civilization," there is merely his ipse dixit. It is true that international law, including the Charter of the United Nations, is transmitted to outer space via the preamble of the Outer Space Treaty. It is also true that States Parties bear international responsibility for the outer space activities of the natural and juridical persons under their jurisdiction. However, I have yet to see a legal treatise which concludes that any extant law prohibits future Martian colonists from establishing a House of Burgesses. Indeed, since the beginning of the 20th century, the principle of national self-determination has increasingly challenged a founding principle of the Westphalian nation-state system: state sovereignty, although it should be made clear that this has been a developing political norm and is not hard international law. Carr appears to assume that States on Earth would not grant self-government to its outer space colonies, yet the 20th century example was one of massive decolonization, mostly by mutual consent of the metropole and its colony. Today there remain a number of non-sovereign, self-governing territories on Earth, from Puerto Rico to Greenland; if they clamored to throw off the "yolks" [sic] of their colonial masters, I rather suspect that the metropole's response would be, "Yes, ma'am, would you also like the whites along with the yolks?" I strongly doubt that these would be occasions for war. In any case, the question of when a "colony" becomes a distinct "people" is a political one, not a legal one.

Carr discusses "The Genesis of Martian Law" in very broad strokes, "that the application of laws will necessarily take place on Mars, by Martians." No argument there; every incorporated municipality has its ordinances, after all, and some homeowners' associations have enforceable covenants, conditions, and restrictions. But Carr neglects the hierarchy of law, that some law is subordinate to higher law. It is this sense that national law and international law does and will continue to apply to outer space, the former because it is the law of the sovereigns, the latter because the sovereigns have given their consent to it by treaty. The nature and extent of future Martian "sovereignty" is in the realm of hypothetical "meta-law."

Carr also assumes that "Earth laws will be totally inadequate to the purposes of Martian colonists." Possibly he imagines that American colonists burned all of their British law books, hovering around the bonfire to warm and dry themselves following the Tea Party in Boston Harbor. Is it not true that much of American law derives from English common law, and that even some Louisiana law has its roots in French civil law? Does he imagine that a criminal assault or a civil injury will be held to be something entirely different in the eyes of Martian law? Similarly, does he imagine that Martians will be free to flout international criminal law with impunity and to engage in piracy, slaving, genocide, drug trafficking, and war crimes?

Carr declares, "As a practical matter, it doesn’t matter what the Outer Space Treaty says..." Um-hum. I would delighted to see Carr declare in court, "Your Honor, it doesn’t matter what the law says." This is not practicing law in any meaningful sense.

Carr also takes issue with the science writer: "In her article, Fecht points out that the Outer Space Treaty prohibits nations from claiming parts of celestial bodies as their sovereign territory. She extends this to a questionable reading of whether or not it is permissible for private individuals to claim land on celestial bodies. Her reading is that it does not." However, this is not her reading, rather her report of Professor von der Dunk's reading, and if Carr were really interested in von der Dunk's views, he would get the straight dope from the professor's many law journal articles. Consult the original source! You are certainly not going to find the law in Popular Science or on blogs.

Let's use Carr's own argument that "the very nature of the law is rooted in force and the exercise of force." Let's say that you build a ranch on Mars and claim certain land as property. With whom do you register your claim? For any state to register or to in any way recognize such a claim would be a "national appropriation" in violation of Article II of the Outer Space Treaty. Neither is there a United Nations registry of outer space claims, although one may surmise that such a registry might have been an outcome of the future regime to which the 1979 Moon Agreement refers (the negotiation of that regime has yet to occur). A claim of property without legal recognition by a competent authority has only the claimant's ability to enforce his fact of occupation. Sure, you can "claim" in one hand and spit in the other, but what is the worth of such an unrecognizable claim? So Fecht has a point as far as she goes.

However, what is not discussed either by Carr or Fecht is that other provisions of international outer space law express the principle of freedom from interference by other parties, and a number of space jurists, including von der Dunk and myself, see the possibility of developing property rights, including exclusivity and transferability, from such principles. I also argue the basis for outer space property rights in natural legal theory, which codified international space law nowhere negates. The difference between us and Carr is that he doesn't see this possibility and so he would rather just throw the book out the airlock. Again, this is not practicing law in any meaningful sense. If you want property rights law and any other sort of law on Mars, take a tip from this Californian: "Come and make it," but knocking law which you don't understand doesn't make for a persuasive case.

28 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

25 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

24 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

23 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

22 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

Selection

Title

Performer

ReleaseYear

1

Sleeping Satellite (Uptempo Club Mix)

Jan Johnston

2009

2

Когда Сатурн и Марс будут одинаково гореть
When Saturn and Mars Will Have the Same Glow

21 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

20 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

17 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

16 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

15 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

12 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

11 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

09 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

08 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

07 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

05 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

04 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

02 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

01 September 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

31 August 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

30 August 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

29 August 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

28 August 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

22 August 2016

It's the "ultimate" because this trip through music, space, and time
keeps growing. More than 2,700 music tracks organized chronologically,
spanning more than a century, plus voice clips from space missions and
other historical events. More than 200 hours of musical exploration...
and counting.

Selection

Title

Performer

ReleaseYear

1

Star Wars III: Revenge of the Sith - Anakin's Dream

John Williams

2005

2

Звездная колыбельная
Stellar Lullaby

Элизиум
Elizium

2005

3

Solaris Stomp

Space Cossacks

2005

4

Columbia

Here Are the Facts You Requested

2005

5

Star Wars III: Revenge of the Sith - Anakin's Dark Deeds

John Williams

2005

6

Mars

Hogleg

2005

7

STS-114 - Rendezvous Pitch Maneuver

Mission Audio

2005

8

STS-114 - TPS Tile Repair EVA

Mission Audio

2005

9

Star Wars III: Revenge of the Sith - The Birth of the Twins and Padme's Destiny

Part 1: Premises
Predicting the course of a political campaign, like predicting the course of a peacetime geopolitical game or of a shooting war, is difficult. There are a huge number of variables, some of them not well characterized. Always important, however, are the minds of the individuals in the lead roles. I am inclined to give credence to what several sources are writing about Donald Trump's psyche, his reasons for getting into the presidential race, for conducting it as he has, and for staying the course even as it becomes increasingly evident that his style of campaigning will result in a catastrophic loss for the Republican Party. Starting from a set of premises, I will make a prediction regarding Mr. Trump's future moves in the campaign.

Premise 1: Trump announced his candidacy as a ploy to extract a better deal from NBC-TV for renewing his reality show, and failing that, to make his program more marketable to other networks.

Somewhat plausible; however, he should have realized that branding illegal Mexican immigrants as rapists would burn his bridge back to NBC. Far from strengthening his negotiating position, NBC severed all business relationship with him, and none of the other networks will touch his brand, which has become as marketable as toxic waste. At this point, his only path back to television would be to own his own cable channel, which he would be forced to operate largely out of his own pocket because he would not be able to sell much advertising time. Oops!

Premise 2: Trump never expected to become the Republican Party's nominee.

Absolutely plausible! Who did expect it? Whether by conscious design or otherwise, he went through the book and broke each and every law of political campaigning. Who would do that who did not expect to lose? On the other hand, being such a showman, he probably figured he could finish in the middle of the pack without breaking a sweat, it would be fun to play to live audiences for a few months, at the end of which he could find some other way to gratify his vanity. Just beating up Jeb Bush and driving him out of the race would have been enough to declare victory. Then the unexpected happened: he tapped into a niche market of pissed-off, poorly-educated, white men of precarious economic prospects and rapidly dominated that market. It wasn't because he is any sort of genius, it was just dumb luck, a perfect storm of idiocracy which swept him to the Republican nomination. Oops!

Premise 3: Trump never wanted, nor now wants, to be president.

Who can doubt that Trump would be the most miserable president in American history? I don't mean to say that he would do an absolutely miserable job as president; that goes without saying. I mean to say that he would be absolutely miserable in the job of president. That's just not who he is. Sitting in the Oval Office, taking phone calls, sitting in cabinet meetings, listening to advisors drone on and on and on about policies and regulatory issues and budgets and legislation, It's done off-camera and it's tedious as hell. Fuggedaboutit! But now he's a few weeks away from the general election, and it's obvious that what got him to Cleveland won't get him to the White House. It's starting to be not so fun to be Donald Trump. He can't grow his brand out of his captured niche market of stupid white guys, so he's going to lose big time. That's no fun. The Republican professional political class is on his case to pivot to presenting a presidential image, but that's not who he is. He doesn't want to drone on and on and on about policies and regulatory issues and budgets and legislation, Even if it's done on-camera, it's tedious as hell. That's no fun. So, Trump can't win by playing himself, and he can't have any fun by playing someone he's not. Oops!

Part 2: Prediction

So what is the third option? What is Trump's exit strategy?

Since he's not going to get to gush and blush teary-eyed at the adoring crowd as the pageant's crown is placed on his head, he must have in mind some other way to declare victory. And, most of all, it must be fun. Since he can't beat Hillary Clinton, and he's beaten all of his many opponents for the nomination, who else is around that he can beat?

The Republican Party itself. It's easy pickings. It's already sprawled on the mat. All he needs to do is a big fat drop on it. Oooh! I'll bet that hurt!

But until that final slam, Trump must maintain the pretence of wanting to win. Hell yeah, like pro wrestling, the election is fixed, but he's the fixer. He'll mumble through a policy speech, then he'll go back to saying something outrageous for the cameras. He'll shakeup his campaign staff, like he gives a damn what they say or do. That'll create some buzz, then he'll go back to saying something outrageous for the cameras. The more provocative the better, as addicted onlookers need to increase their habit to maintain the same high. Alternating his public personae, he will torment the Republican leadership through a dance of the seven veils as they cling agonizingly to the desperate delusion that he is almost about to reform himself into a serious candidate. The hiring of Stephen Bannon signals a further step away from sanity, but Trump's next move could very well signal a step toward traditional campaigning. The object of Trump's game is simply to keep signaling, to keep the attention on him. Nothing else matters.

Right up until the first debate with Clinton. One would almost make the mistake of calling that the Moment of Truth were it not that there is no truth in Trump, but it will be the Reckoning. It will be the last stop on the Trump reality road show, because it will be an environment he can't control, a show he can't dominate with bombast and insult. He was able to play his Republican rivals off each other, they were more concerned about savaging each other than taking him down, but he is going to be the only one in Clinton's sights... Second Amendment people, don't go there! As much of a megalomaniac as Trump is, he has to know that Hillary will have him not only for dinner, but she will dine off his carcass from one debate to the next straight through to Election Day. A good hunter doesn't waste meat. That first debate is when it stops being fun and he is humiliated as the boorish ignoramus he is.

So this is my best guess as to how the Trump's series finale will play out. At the beginning of the first debate, the candidates will make their opening statements, as is traditional. It doesn't really matter who goes first; that will have been determined beforehand by a coin toss. If Clinton goes first, whatever she says is... whatever. It won't be remembered by anyone. Trump's opening statement will be the big reveal. It will be the last moment he can absolutely dominate. He will announce his withdrawal from the presidential race, and exit stage right. The limousine waiting outside the venue will whisk him away into the night as all hell breaks loose in the auditorium, in the reporting booth, in the country, but most of all, in the Republican Party.

October Surprise is going to come about a week early this year. Six weeks before the November election, the ballots will already have been printed and mailed to absentee voters. Trump's name will be on them as the Republican candidate for president of the United States of America, except that the party will no longer have a candidate. Trump's sudden exit will create a political vacuum which the party will scramble to fill but will be unable to at that late date, resulting in an implosion. No pitcher coming off the Republican bench will be able to save the game. It will be a laugher, a game far beyond reach. And what happens toward the end of a laugher? The stadium is mostly empty. Most of the crowd has gone to the exits to get in their cars ahead of everyone else. This presidential election will have the lowest turnout in the history of the republic.

Why would Trump do this? Because when all else is said and done, Donald Trump is an entertainer. What better than to make a grand exit which leaves even his legions of detractors wanting more, especially the broadcast media, which will cut from one talking head to the next, each one more open-mouthed and goggle-eyed than the last, for the remaining 80 minutes of the scheduled presidential debate, and for the remaining 40 days of the presidential campaign. What better way flip the finger to the Republican Party he has come to despise, from its swelling number of principled defectors to his dwindling number of amoral apologists.

Yes, he is that vindictive. Yes, he is that vainglorious. The one ambition remaining open to Trump is to play the part of the greatest political villain in American history. It's at least the next best thing to playing the hero, and arguably even better. After all, everyone remembers Richard III; no one remembers the Earl of Richmond. Also, it has been said that every person is the hero of his own story, and certainly Trump has show this to be at least as true of himself as of anyone, but who else but Trump could be both the hero and the villain in his own mind, and relish every act, scene and line?

My prediction assumes that there is some method in Trump's madness, an assumption which may be incorrect, as he may have no method at all. It may also be that I don't believe a word of what I have written here, that I am just another political entertainer. You might very well think that....

About Me

Thomas Gangale holds a bachelor's degree in aerospace engineering from the University of Southern California and a master's degree in international relations from San Francisco State University. He was both an airman and an officer in the US Air Force, serving as an air traffic controller and an F-4 weapon systems officer. Also while on active duty, he served on the technical management teams of several satellite projects of the highest national priority involving national technical means of verification of strategic arms control agreements, as well as a Strategic Defense Initiative satellite program and two Space Shuttle payloads (STS-4 and STS-39). He has published numerous articles in aerospace and social science journals, has presented papers at several aerospace symposia, has written opinion editorials in major metropolitan newspapers, and has appeared as a guest on radio talk shows. He is a leading authority on timekeeping systems for other planets, and is the inventor of a class of orbits that will be essential to communication between Earth and crews in the vicinity of Mars. He is the author of the American Plan for reforming the presidential nomination process.