Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Starting with week 4, I posted a contrast of APR's power rankings
with ESPN's weekly power rankings. This is the 2011 season wrap-up
for that series of posts.

For each week, a team is counted if it has a ±8 differential
listed.

Teams ESPN liked more than APR:

Giants (5 weeks, 3 weeks on the bubble)

ESPN had them ranked as high as #6 (after their win over the
Patriots), while APR had them ranked as low as #27 (after their loss
to the Seahawks). It would be easy to make a post-hoc justification
of EPSN's ranking based on the Giants' Super Bowl appearance, but
the fact is, the Giants had, for the most part, a very unremarkable
regular season.

Steelers (3 weeks)

The Steelers had a rocky start to the season, including an
embarrassing week 1 loss to the Ravens, and a 3-point win over the
hapless Colts that came on a last-second field goal. As a result,
they spent 3 weeks right on the edge of this category.

Raiders (2 weeks, 2 weeks on the bubble)

When Jason Campbell and Darren McFadden were both healthy, the
Raiders probably were the class of the AFC West. After they went
down, their various replacements simply never preformed at that same
level.

Chargers (2 weeks, 1 week on the bubble)

The Chargers have had a reputation of slow starts and strong
finishes in the regular season. As a result, ESPN has developed a
habit of overlooking those slow starts. The trouble is, the other
AFC West teams are no longer as weak as they once were, and so those
strong finishes are not so easy to come by.

The Cowboys played a lot of good (or, at least contending) teams
close, which APR likes. The problem was, too many times they came
out on the losing end of "close".

Dolphins (3 weeks, 2 weeks on the bubble)

The Dolphins had a late-season surge, which raised them up in
APR's rankings. Unfortunately, it was too late to contend for a
playoff spot, which got them ignored by ESPN.

Seahawks (2 weeks, 2 weeks on the bubble)

The Seahawks are another team that had a combination of close
losses and a late season surge. But they were an also-ran team in
what has been one of the weakest divisions, and were never really in
contention for a playoff spot.

Bengals (2 weeks, 2 weeks on the bubble)

The Bengals only had one win against a team with a winning record,
but they did manage to go 6-2 the first half of the season, which
impressed APR more than ESPN.

Eagles (2 weeks)

Another team with a too-little, to-late late season surge. They
could be a real contender for the NFC East next year.

Broncos (2 weeks)

APR liked the Broncos early, when they had some close losses to
teams that were doing well.

With the exception of a few extreme cases, most teams came
fairly close to their projected win mark this year.

In hindsight, the Colts' 9.1 projected wins, along with the
fact that they barely made it to 10 wins last year were some
warning signs of serious problems in Indianapolis.

I'm not really sure what happened with the 49ers this year.
There defense has been pretty solid for a few years now. Maybe
they just needed someone who could make the best use of the
offensive players they had? Frank Gore and Alex Smith both did
very well this season.

Last year, the Rams' defense had a stand-out season, holding
their opponents to 20 points or less in 10 games. This year, they
only held their opponents to 20 points or less in 4 games. That's
the difference between 2010 and 2011 right there.

Last summer, I speculated that the truncated off-season would
hurt teams with new coaches and in need of free agent help. But
with the exception of the Eagles and their many free agents, I'm
not sure there are any teams that can blame their troubles on the
short off-season.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

This is a breakdown of how teams did, grouped by their standings
after the week 2 games.
Click here
to see all the posts on this topic.

Team

Standing

Note

WW

Packers

15- 1

Teams

Patriots+

13- 3

(7)

Texans+

10- 6

Lions

10- 6

Jets

8- 8

Bills

6-10

Redskins

5-11

Avg wins: 9.6

WL

Ravens+

12- 4

Teams

49ers+

11- 3

(9)

Bengals

9- 7

Cardinals

8- 8

Chargers

8- 8

Raiders

8- 8

Bears

8- 8

Eagles

8- 8

Jaguars

5-11

Avg wins: 8.6

LW

Steelers

12- 4

Teams

Saints+

11- 3

(9)

Falcons

10- 6

Giants+

9- 7

Titans

9- 7

Broncos+

8- 8

Cowboys

8- 8

Browns

4-12

Buccaneers

4-12

Avg wins: 8.3

LL

Seahawks

7- 9

Teams

Chiefs

7- 9

(7)

Dolphins

6-10

Panthers

6-10

Vikings

3-13

Rams

2-14

Colts

2-14

Avg wins: 4.7

Comments

Playoff teams are listed in bold. Teams with a + are teams that
won at least one playoff game.

This year's WL and LW grouping looks a little more
like the
results for the historical data set. In both cases, the data is
centered around 8 wins or so, but with the LW set noticably more
spread out. (Note that only 3 of the WL teams more than a game
away from 8 wins.)

Monday, January 23, 2012

I suppose the most surprising thing about this game is that the
Ravens offense performed as well as they did. They had 4 drives of
65 yards or longer, all ending with a score except for that final
missed field goal. And the missed field goal at the end of
regulation has to be particularly painful—the Ravens went
toe-to-toe with the Patriots the whole game, and would've had a
decent shot at winning if they had forced overtime.

I have to say, I wasn't overly impressed with Tom Brady's
performance in this game. 14 incompletions, no touchdowns and two
interceptions gave him easily his lowest passer ratining (57.5) of
the season. Yeah, one of those picks was pretty flukey, but the
fact that they even tried such a high-risk throw against the Ravens'
defense suggests to me a pretty high level of frustration. I
suspect the Patriots offense will have to be more patient to succeed
against the Giants defense.

Giants @ 49ers (APR, SRS, Line)

As predicted, this game was decided on turnovers: one muffed punt
gave the Giants field position for the tying score, and a second
fumble gave them field position for the winning field goal.

The Giants had an astonishing 17 drives in this game (including 3
in overtime). Only 3 of them longer than 31 yards. The 49ers
defense gave them a real chance to win this game, but lack of
production on offense, and those two critical turnovers, tipped the
game to the Giants' favor.

Totals

ThisWeek

ThisSeason

%

APR

1-1

5-5

50.0%

SRS

1-1

5-5

50.0%

Line

1-1

6-4

60.0%

Stay Tuned!

I'll have some more season wrap-up posts this week, and the Super
Bowl pick next week.

The Giants move up more than 4% on their road win over the
highly ranked 49ers. They're still a long ways back of the
Patriots, though.

The 2011 Giants join the 1979 Rams and the 2008 Cardinals as
the only 7-loss teams to advance to the Super Bowl. The Rams and
Cardinals both lost.

A number of teams with negative regular season point
differentials (points scored - points allowed) have won in the
playoffs (including the Broncos this year). The 2011 Giants are
the only such team to advance to the Super Bowl.

The 49ers have now gone 1-5 in their last 6 NFC Championship
games, including 4 home losses.

Tom Brady and Eli Manning are the first quarterbacks to have a
Super Bowl rematch since Troy Aikman and Jim Kelly had their
rematch in Super Bowl XXVIII

It may look like there's a lot of 6-4 and 5-5 records in the
list, but the overall total is 54-26 (67.5%), which is only a few
points lower than for the Divisional round.

There's only been two seasons (1992 and 1997) where both home
teams lost in the Championship round.

Both home teams have won in the Championship round 16 times;
the last time was 2009 (that was also the last time both #1 seeds
advanced to the Super Bowl).

The 9 year period from 1997 to 2005 (inclusive) is the longest
stretch (so far) where at least one home team lost in the
Championship round.

Super Bowls are played (for the most part) on neutral fields.
And while one team is designated the "home team" for various rule
purposes (the coin flip, choice of jerseys, etc.), you can see
from the "home teams" record (20-25) that this designation confers
no special benefit.

The closest occurrence to a true "home team" in the Super Bowl
came in Super Bowl XIV, when the (then) Los Angeles Rams faced the
Pittsburgh Steelers. The game was in the Rose Bowl, just 15 miles
from the Los Angeles Coliseum, the Rams' home stadium at the
time. The Rams lost, 19-31.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

The latest reports
are the
Ravens should have Ed Reed for their game against the
Patriots. They're probably going to need their defense at full
strength to come away with a win, especially the way the Ravens'
offense played against the Texans.

The Patriots are coming off their first playoff win in four
years, and if their defense can play as well against the Ravens as
they did against the Broncos, they should have a relatively easy
time advancing to the Super Bowl.

Last Sunday, the Giants seemed to have the upper hand over the
Packers for virtually the whole game. In spite of that, they were
only leading by 7 points at the start of the 4th quarter (and that
margin provided by what was basically a fluke touchdown).

The Giants will likely need a lot better production from their
offense to have a chance to beat the 49ers.

For the first 56 minutes, the 49ers offense had a very
unimpressive performance against the Saints. Just two drives
longer than 32 yards, and only 10 points off all those
turnovers.

But in the final 4 minutes of the game, Alex Smith managed to
produce, by a good margin, the 49ers two best drives of the game.
Both 80+ yards in length, and both ending in touchdowns. It will
make it a lot easier for he 49ers to come away with a win if their
offense can play more like those last 4 minutes, and less like the
first 56.

Given the way the Giants and 49ers offenses both played last
Sunday, it seems very likely that the winner of their matchup will
be determined by which defense can win the turnover battle.

Monday, January 16, 2012

It's been a football cliché for a long time that,
especially in the playoffs, you have to win the turnover battle. The
reality behind the cliché was hammered home with a vengeance
in three of the four games this weekend.

Winning team in bold.

Broncos @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

Like last year's Seahawks, the Broncos were easily the weakest
division winner, but managed to pull out a home upset win in the
Wild Card round. And like last year, they looked a lot more like
their record in the Divisional round.

It may have been the competition (or the lack thereof), but the
Patriots defense looked as good in this game as they have all
season. The Broncos only had two drives longer than 35 yards, both
of them well into garbage time. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense did
what they've done most of the season—scored early and often.
They put this game away early, and should be well rested for next
week.

Saints (APR, SRS, Line) @ 49ers

The 49ers have made a living this season playing very good
defense, including producing more turnovers (38) than any other team
in the league.

The Texans, as much as any team this weekend, have to be wondering
what might have been. They played the Ravens close for the whole
game, and had a chance for a tying touchdown in the final minute of
the game. If T.J. Yates hadn't been intercepted 3 times, they
would've had a real chance to win the game.

As for the Ravens, their defense did what it needed to
do—produce turnovers and keep the Texans out of the end zone.
But it's not a good sign that their offense was only able to score
20 points, even with 4 extra chances at the ball.

Giants @ Packers (APR, SRS, Line)

This was a shocking display of offensive ineptitude on the part of
the Packers. The last time they lost 3 fumbles in a game was more
than
four
years ago (The last time they lost 3 fumbles and won
was more than
14
years ago).

The Packers' defense was its usual self: they gave up a lot of
yards and some big plays. But in spite of all the dropped passes,
lost fumbles, and the Hail Mary touchdown, this was just a 7-point
game going into the 4th quarter. By no means out of reach for one of
the highest-scoring offenses this season.

But that offense was never able to break out of its doldrums. A
failed 4th-down conversion, followed by a third lost fumble was the
back-breaker.

To be fair to the Giants, they played well, overcome some
adversity of their own (including getting denied on a challenge they
really should've won), and took full advantage of the opportunities
that came their way. In spite of their unimpressive regular season
record, they certainly looked like a force to be reckoned with on
Sunday.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Since we've got a 7-loss team and an 8-loss team advancing to the
Divisional round this year, I thought I'd take a look at how
high-loss teams have historically (since 1970) done in the
playoffs.

9-Loss Teams

Of course, there's been just one: the 2010 Seahawks, with an upset
win in the Wildcard round, and then a loss in the Divisional
round.

8-Loss Teams

There's been 10 8-loss teams:

Season

Team

Result

1985

Browns

0-1

1990

Saints

0-1

1991

Jets

0-1

1999

Cowboys

0-1

1999

Lions

0-1

2004

Vikings

1-1

2004

Rams

1-1

2006

Giants

0-1

2008

Chargers

1-1

2011

Broncos

tbd

The Broncos are just the 4th 8-loss team to win a playoff game. If
they win on Sunday Saturday, they will be the first 8-loss team to win in the
Divisional round.

9-Loss Teams

There's been 58 7-loss teams that have advanced to the playoffs.
The Giants results are pending. Of the rest, 27 lost in the
Wildcard round, 22 lost in the Division round. That leaves 8 that
won in the divisional round:

Season

Team

Beat

Note

1979

Rams

Cowboys

1983

Seahawks

Dolphins

Marino's rookie season

1984

Steelers

Broncos

Elway's 2nd season

1987

Vikings

49ers

Strike season

1995

Colts

Chiefs

Marty Schottenheimer

1996

Jaguars

Broncos

2008

Cardinals

Panthers

Jake Delhomme

2009

Jets

Chargers

A number of these games feature what I would regard as extenuating
circumstances:

Two games were lost by teams with quarterbacks in their first
or second year.

In 1987 with "replacement players", the Vikings went 0-3, the 49ers
went 3-0. If you throw out those 3 weeks, the Vikings and 49ers
records are much closer.

Marty Schottenheimer is the poster boy for strong regular seasons,
followed by 1-and-done playoff appearances.

Jake Delhomme's performance in the Cardinals @ Panthers playoff
game is one of the biggest quarterback meltdowns I've ever seen in
the playoffs.

Of these 8 teams, only 2 (the 1979 Rams and the 2008 Cardinals)
advanced to the Super Bowl. Both lost, coincidentally both to the
Steelers.

Unanimous agreement of all four games. Note that Saints @
49ers is the only game this week not a rematch of a regular season
meeting. For the rematches, the team favored here also won in the
regular season.

The Texans are the only team of the 8 remaining that hasn't won
at least one Super Bowl.

The Broncos haven't won two playoff games in the same season
since their 1998 Super Bowl run (in fact, last week was just the
Broncos' second playoff win since Super Bowl XXXII).

Monday, I heard an argument that since the Broncos have a
better defense, running game, and special teams, they have a
chance against the Patriots on Saturday. The problem with that
logic is the Broncos presumably had the same advantages in week 15
when they played the Patriots in Denver. You may
remember the
Broncos made it a game for a quarter, but the Patriots pulled
away in the second, ultimately winning by 18.

I can't seem to get a solid read on any of these games. The
Tebow-lead Broncos have made a living coming out of games with
wins where it didn't seem like they had a chance. The Texans
defense could easily shut down the Ravens—I suspect that
game will be decided by scores on defense and special teams.

On the NFC side, the Saints have looked much weaker on the
road, and haven't faced many defenses as strong as the 49ers. And
it's always an adventure every time the Packers defense takes the
field—the Giants managed to score 35 points on them, and tie
the game late in the 4th quarter.

But he picked 2005 advisedly—the trend prior to that year is
very much the home teams winning. In fact, if you look at the
win-loss totals by 5 year periods, they are (with the exception of the
early 1990s and late 2000s) fairly consistent:

Years

Home Wins

Home Losses

%

1970-1974

15

5

75%

1975-1979

12

8

60%

1980-1984

13

7

65%

1985-1989

15

5

75%

1990-1994

18

2

90%

1995-1999

15

5

75%

2000-2004

16

4

80%

2005-2009

10

10

50%

You can see there's been a fair amount of variation—the late
70s came very close to a 50% win rate for the home team as well, and
in the early 90s, the home team had a virtual lock in the divisional
round.

The WL totals for all home teams in the divisional rounds since
1970 (and including the 2010 games) is 116-48 (70.7%).

The Steelers offense had their troubles in this game (5 sacks, 4
punts and a bad interception), but with their defense, 23
points should've been enough to beat the Broncos. But the
Steelers defense suffered some critical injuries, and the rest
looked (in the words of Warren Sapp), old and slow. The result was
Tim Tebow having a career day passing (316 yards and 2 touchdowns).
And now, for the Steelers, it is over.

Lions @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)

The Lions made more of a game of this than I was
expecting—leading at halftime, and only down 4 at the start of
the 4th quarter. But their defense just couldn't stop the Saints.
Other than two fumbles, every Saints drive (until the very end of
the game) ended in a score, all touchdowns, except for one field goal.

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Last spring, the Falcons decided they needed a big upgrade in
their offense, so they traded up to get wide receiver Julio Jones.
The results of this game are a strong indication that 1) the Falcons
were right in concluding they needed to improve their offense, and
2) one wide recever was not enough. The Falcons only had 4 drives
longer than 25 yards, and they all ended with a failed 4th-down
conversion attempt.

Bengals @ Texans (APR, SRS, Line)

The Texans played perfectly to their strengths—ran a lot (35
carries for 188 yard), played outstanding defense (Dalton was sacked
4 times, intercepted 3 times, and the Bengals were held to just 10
points), and kept as much pressure off of T.J. Yates as possible.
Yates only completed 11 passes for 159 yards, but that was more than
enough.

The Broncos winning continues the streak of APR's lowest-ranked
playoff team winning at least once in the playoffs (although this
is the first time that it hasn't been the NFC West division
winner).

We also had the first playoff overtime game under the new rules
designed to allow both teams at least one possession. Somewhat
ironically featuring a game-winning touchdown on the first OT play
from scrimmage, one of the few exceptions to the "at least one
possession" rule.

The Steelers loss also means the Super Bowl "losers curse"
continues—going back to 1997, the Cardinals and Seahawks
remain the only Super Bowl losers to win a playoff game the
following season.

Friday, January 6, 2012

Using all game scores through week 16, the power index values for
all teams were computed, using a non-weighted version of the APR
ranking algorithm. (The final week of games is left out to avoid
skewing the rankings with the results of games where teams are
resting their starters, or otherwise not trying).

For the weekly power rankings, APR uses method that gives less
weight to older games, emphasising each teams more recent
perormances. This means that the matchup ratios (ρ) listed
below will not correspond to the matchup ratios listed in the weekly
game pick posts.

Once the power indexes are computed for each team, every game of
the season (including week 17) is picked using the unweighted
rankings. The wrong picks are sorted by matchup ratio, with the
games having the largest ratios featured below.

Any game that I regard as not a "real" upset (because a team is
resting its starters, or is indirectly affected by such) is not
included in this list.

Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10

Week 15: The Ravens have one of the top-ranked defenses this
season, but when they traveled to San Diego, the Chargers moved the
ball up and down the field all game long and made the Ravens look
like they were a long ways from deserving the AFC's #2 seed.

Week 7: The Seahawks traveled to Cleveland, but couldn't leave
with a win because they couldn't score 7 points on the Browns.

Week 2: The Cowboys come back from a 10-point 4th-quarter
deficit and steal an overtime win from the 49ers.

Week 15: The Texans defense didn't show up, T.J. Yates looked like
an inexperienced rookie, and the Panthers left Houston with a
convincing win over the AFC South division champions.

Week 2: Early signs of the Ravens road troubles when they
travel to Nashville and give up two touchdowns and 4 field goals to
the Titans (who only scored 26+ points four times all season).

APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2011 Season

Week 9: Giants 24, Patriots 20 (ρ=1.1663)
Two sacks and 21 incompletions (including a couple interceptions)
add up to probably Tom Brady's worst game of the season. Factor in
2 lost fumbles, and the Patriots just gave the Giants too many
chances to win this game.

Week 15: Titans 13, Colts 27 (ρ=1.1742)
An injured Matt Hasselbeck, an ineffective Jake Locker, and a Colts
defense that finally put a whole game together finally got the Colts
a win, and cost the Titans a playoff spot.

Week 14: 49ers 19, Cardinals 21 (ρ=1.1930)
The 49ers have had trouble scoring points, especially on the road.
Which means that (as with this game) it may only take a handful of
big plays to beat them. Losing this game meant the 49ers had to win
out to clinch the #2 seed over the Saints.

Week 3: Falcons 13, Buccaneers 16 (ρ=1.2068)
The Buccaneers were
actually a
unanimous pick to win this game, but in hindsight, it has to
be counted as a pretty embarrassing loss for the Falcons. This is
the only game of the season the Buccaneers' opponent didn't score at
least 17 points.

Week 7: Ravens 7, Jaguars 12 (ρ=1.2167)
Unlike the Ravens' other road losses this season, their defense did a
fine job in this game. But their offense didn't even generate 150
yards and couldn't put up enough points to out-score the Jaguars
four field goals.

Week 2: Patriots 31, Bills 34 (ρ=1.2179)
The Patriots established an early 21-0 lead in this game, but Tom
Brady threw 4 interceptions, and that let the Bills
back in the game, and gave them a chance to win on a last-second
field goal.

Week 16: Texans 16, Colts 19 (ρ=1.2831)
The Texans had too many sacks, too many penalties, and not enough
touchdowns in this game. That left the door open for the Colts to
take the lead on a late touchdown, and clinch their second win of
the season.

Week 15: Packers 14, Chiefs 19 (ρ=1.3215)
It's tempting to blame the Packers' defense for this loss, but their
play here is comparable to the way they've played all
season—they gave up a lot of yards, but not many points. The
real problem was on the other side of the ball. The Packers'
patchwork offensive line gave up 4 sacks, and their receivers
dropped too many passes. The result was Aaron Rodgers posting a
comletion ratio under 50% for just the 3rd start of his career, and
the only game this season the Packers didn't score at least 24 points.

Week 8: Saints 21, Rams 31 (ρ=1.3721)
Drew Brees got sacked a season-record 6 times in this game, threw 2
interceptions, and generally made the Rams' defense look like
world-beaters. This makes 3 seasons in a row
(2010,
2009)
that the Saints are on the losing end of the season's biggest upset.

Eliminated Games

Most teams had something to play for right down to the end of the
season, so no games were eliminated from the rankings this year.

Biggest Upsets According to the Line

Winning teams in bold. Teams favored by 10 or more points were
34-3-0 this year.

The Steelers and Broncos have (by a pretty good margin) the two
lowest-scoring offenses of any of the playoff teams. This could
easily be another 7-3 or 13-9 game. That also means, unless the
Steelers get a shut-out, 8 points seems like a lot to give.

The Lions playoff game will be 20 years, almost to the day,
since their
last playoff win. The Bengals are the only team with a longer
time since their last playoff win,
21 years ago

That means the result of the Bengals @ Texans game will be
notable no matter what—either the Bengals will end the
NFL's longest active streak without a playoff win, or the Texans
will get their first playoff win in franchise
history.

In the regular season meeting between the Lions and Saints,
Matt Stafford was able to pass for more than 400 yards against the
Saints defense, so the Lions aren't completely doomed. This time,
though, they have to get touchdowns. Given the way the Saints
score points, especially in the Super Dome, the Lions will get in
trouble very quickly settling for field goals.

The Giants are just 3-5 in their last 8 games, with two of
those wins coming in games against the Cowboys. The Falcons
haven't been much of a juggernaut either, but at least they've
beaten more than two teams since the first week of November.

I've made this point before, but it bears repeating: the Texans
are 10-1 when they hold their opponent under 20 points. The
performance of the Texans' defense is made even more critical by
the fact that the Texans haven't scored more than 22 points since
Matt Schaub got hurt.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

A comparison of
APR's
Week 16 power rankings with
ESPN's
rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check
(both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The
number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and
ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the Bubble:

ESPN drops the Raiders (+8) 3 spots now that they are no
longer playoff contenders.

ESPN gives the Titans (+7) a 3-spot bump for a 1-point
victory over the nothing-to-play-for, Jake Delhomme-lead
Titans.

However you feel about Tim Tebow, it's not a good sign that
the Broncos (+7) have backed into the playoffs on a 3-game
losing streak. They've only beaten one team (the Bengals in week 2)
with a winning record.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Dolphins (-14)

No question that APR has the Fins ranked too high at #10. But (as
noted by ESPN), they finished the season 6-3. They don't belong in
the bottom 10, either.

Seahawks (-13)

Another over-rank by APR (#8). But they finished 5-3, including
close losses to the 49ers (13-3 and the NFC's #2 seed), and the
Cardinals (8-8).

On the bubble

A tough season for the Eagles (-8). Their early 4-game
losing streak included last-second losses to the Falcons and 49ers,
and left them one win and the right tie-breakers away from winning
the division. They're probably the most dangerous team out of the
playoffs.

This was a game of (mostly) offensive futility. The Broncos only
had one drive longer than 36 yards, which ended with a field goal.
The Chiefs only had one drive go more than 35 yards. But it ended
in a touchdown, which was good enough to win this game.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-3, SRS 3-4, Line 4-3)

Lions (Line) @ Packers (APR, SRS)

In spite of some bad calls by the referees, the Lions had an
extraordinary day offensively, including a 5-touchdown performance
by Matt Stafford. But their defense just couldn't stop backup Matt
Flynn. In spite of missing key starters Greg Jennings, James
Starks, Randal Cobb, and Brian Bulaga, the Packers offense put up a
franchise record 480 yards passing and 6 touchdowns.

Jets (SRS) @ Dolphins (APR, Line)

This one's pretty simple: Mark Sanchez threw 3 interceptions,
which was just more than this team could overcome. The Jets were 0-5
this season when they had 3 or more turnovers.

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)

The Raiders had 6 scoring drives in this game, but 4 of them were
for field goals. That turned out to be a problem, as their defense
allowed the Chargers 4 touchdown drives, and thier special teams
gave up another.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Vikings

As advertised, the "Battle of the backups" was a close game.
Neither team lit things up, but the Vikings managed to be worst of a
bad lot: 9 drives that ended with a punt or turnover meant that the
Bears' 17 points was enough to win the game.

Titans (Line) @ Texans (APR, SRS)

The Texans are 10-1 when they hold their opponent under 20
points. Their offense (whether lead by Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, or
Jake Delhomme) mostly hasn't put up a lot of points. This leads to
a pretty simple formula for the Texans: when the defense struggles,
they lose.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)

Another close game, as expected. Perhaps the biggest factor in
this game was Larry Fitzgerald (9 catches for 149 yards) who pretty
much put this team on his back and carried them to the win.

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Tony Romo didn't appear to be slowed down by his bruised hand,
putting up 289 yards and 2 touchdowns passing, with a 78% completion
rate. But 6 sacks, 7 penalties, and 2 turnovers meant that most of
those yards did not culminate in scoring drives. And Eli Manning
had a very good game (346 yards, 3 touchdowns passing, 73%
completion rate), which allowed the Giants to build an early lead
that the Cowboys never were able to overcome.

Totals

A good week all around, and (for APR and SRS) much better season
season
tallies than
last year.

The Patriots, Saints, and 49ers are all pretty close together,
with a pretty significant gap down to the Packers. APR doesn't
take into account resting starters, and so the Packers slip down
a bit more on their 3-point home victory.

The Patriots get a blow-out win over the Bills, but it can't be
a good sign they fell behind 21-0 before they got started
scoring. Even early in the game, 21-point deficit is not easy to
overcome in the playoffs, even playing at home.

The Eagles are the highest-ranked non-playoff team, followed up
closely by the Seahawks as the highest ranked team with a losing
record.

The Broncos are the lowest-ranked playoff team, a position that
had been held by the NFC West champion the previous 3 seasons.

The Raiders are the lowest-ranked 8-8 team, and the Titans are
the lowest-ranked team with a winning record. But with the
seasons those teams had, their ranking seems pretty
reasonable.