Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Atmospheric Itch

Atmospheric ItchBy Todd Nelson

I
have an itch that a scratch won't reach and I am in need of a little
atmospheric acupuncture. This March has had few "Spring-like" signs with
temperatures running nearly 8F below average, so some help from Mother
Nature would be much appreciated at this point!

March
came in like a Polar Bear this year and may go out like a Lion as the
next few days look significantly more active than it did to start the
month. Not only will folks along the East Coast be dealing with a
massive wind storm, but folks in the West are set to get battered by
Pacific Moisture through the end of the week. This is great news for
areas in California and the Sierra Nevada Range, but flood concerns and
additional debris flows are feared in Washington.

One
of these Pacific storms breaks loose and drifts our way by late
Wednesday. A sloppy rain/snow mix through Thursday reminds us all that
it is indeed March. There could be some minor accumulations across parts
of Minnesota/Wisconsin, but the strong sun will likely make quick work
of that by the weekend.

40s and 50s may be in the offing in the near future. Brace yourself, you might see several jacket-less people. It'll be weird!

TUESDAY: April Fools' Day. Near average temperatures... we hope! Wake-up: 23. High: 43.

==================

This Day in Weather HistoryMarch 26th

2007:
Temperature records were shattered across much of central and southern
Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. The following records were set: 69
at Alexandria, 75 at Mankato, 77 at Little Falls, 79 at St Cloud, 81 at
Minneapolis-St Paul and Eau Claire, 82 at Redwood Falls and 83 at
Springfield.

1991: A record of 76 is set at Eau Claire.

===================

Sunrise/Sunset TimesMarch 26th:

SUNRISE 705 AMSUNSET 733 PM

================

Moon Phase at Midnight March 26th3.5 Days Before New Moon

==============

Weather Outlook
Here's a good outline of what we can expect with this next storm system as it moves in PM Wednesday through Thursday.

"A
storm system will begin to affect the Upper Midwest late Wednesday
night. The precipitation will likely begin as rain, then change over to
snow by Thursday afternoon and evening. The highest probability of 4
inches or more of snow will occur north and east of the Twin Cities
Metro area, but some snow is likely before the system exits the region
Friday morning. Total precipitation amounts could exceed one half inch
across a good portion of eastern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin." (Image courtesy: NWS Twin Cities)

Minneapolis Temp Trend
We're
still looking at a fairly gradual, but decent warm up over the next
several days... At least we're going to be closer to average and hey,
there's even a chance that we could climb to above average levels over
the coming days!

Weather Outlook
Here's
a look at our next storm system as it moves in to the Midwest. Note
that there appears to be a brief wintry mix early Wednesday as the
warmer air streams in across the area. Clouds thicken further by PM
Wednesday with more wintry precipitation developing. The best chance of
more widespread rain/snow will be Thursday as the center of low pressure
slides in across the region.

Snow Potential
According
to the RPM model, the best chance of snow accumulations will be across
the far northern reaches of the state of Minnesota.

Rain Potential
Interestingly,
most of the precipitation with this particular system looks to fall in
the form of just rain on the southern side the storm.

==========================

Cherry Blossom Festival Continues
YIKES!
The EarthCam view from Washington D.C. showed a pretty dank view on
Tuesday. You can kind of make out the Washington Monument... Keep in
mind that the annual Cherry Blossom Festival is currently in session.

Here
was the view from the Reagan National Airport in Virgina. This
particular view from Tuesday showed a little snow on the ground along
with the buds trying hard to pop out! Unfortunately, they're not getting
any help from Mother Nature.

Seasonal Dysfunction
Those
poor flowers in Fredericksburg, VA look like they had a tough day
Tuesday. Thanks @mjoyce111 for the picture. Hope they didn't freeze
their buds off!

Snowy View From Virginia Tech
The
webcam from Virginia Tech looked quite interesting on Tuesday afternoon
too. Interestingly, this webcam looked very "springy" this weekend with
green grass and pink flower buds showing up on trees.

Key West Flooding
Thanks to @mrphew for the picture from Key West, FL where heavy rains on Tuesday caused some flooding issues.

Miami Rainfall Record
Heavy
rainfall across southern Florida on Tuesday led to daily rainfall
record in Miami on Tuesday, March 25th. As of 9am, Miami had 1.48" of
rain, which beat the old record of 1.16" set in 1930

East Coast Storm "Bombs" Out!
Believe
it or not, the areas that I mentioned above are from two separate areas
of low pressure that are set to merge and go through a process known as
"Bombogenesis". This process is classified as an area of low pressure
that intensifies rapidly, but has to meet the criteria of at least a
24millibar drop within 24 hours. Some models show the central pressure
to nearly double that heading into Wednesday! The image below shows the
storm system of interest off the East Coast. Note the two lows (in red),
this is the low pressure center around 7pm Tuesday (forecast average
central pressure of 995mb). Note that 24 hours later (in yellow) at 7pm
Wednesday, the forecast central pressure of the low will be around
956mb! That' a drop of nearly 40mb in 24 hours!

Storm at 6am Wednesday
Here's
the storm forecast by 6am Wednesday, note the white lines surrounding
the low pressure, these are lines of equal air pressure and the more
lines you see packed tightly around an area of low pressure dictates the
strength of the wind. The winds at this point could already be gusting
to 60mph+ over the open water! Also, the snow appears to be just
clipping the southeastern part of Massachusetts at this point.

Storm at 12pm Wednesday
By
midday Wednesday, the storm appears to be quickly moving
north/northeast towards Nova Scotia. The wind field surrounding this low
pressure system looks to still be kicking up pretty good. At this
point, the heavy snow will have already moved into the eastern portions
of Maine.

Storm at 6pm Wednesday
Another
6 hours forward and the snow looks to be nearly wrapped up over Massachusetts, but some lingering snow showers can't be ruled out over
the far northern New England region and parts of Maine. The wind however
will still be roaring!

Storm @ 6am Thursday
The
snow threat by Thursday morning looks to be pretty much wrapped up, but
the gusty winds will still be in place for the far northeastern part of
the nation.

Snowfall Potential
Other
than the significant winds, it appears that (most) of us have dodged a
major bullet with this storm! The snowfall looks to be the heaviest
right along the coast, but it will be increasing dramatically as you
head north towards the eastern part of Maine. The image below (courtesy
WeatherBell) show the snowfall potential through Wednesday night.

National Weather Service Weather Headlines
Here are all the winter weather headlines that have been posted for the upcoming event.

Boston, MA
...BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHA/S VINEYARD. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY
SNOW...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. *
ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND NANTUCKET. * TIMING...SNOW
DEVELOPS BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM 2
AM UNTIL NOON...TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HEAVY
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH WILL RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED. *
WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH. *
TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

Portland, ME
...STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... *
WINDS...NORTH 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT. * SEAS...12 TO 17
FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS
OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.
COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS
SEA CONDITIONS...AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN
PORT UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

Caribou, ME
THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WARNING REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES. * LOCATIONS...INTERIOR HANCOCK
AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ROADS COULD
BECOME IMPASSABLE. * WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

Cold Night Ahead in the Southeast
Spring
has sprung for some in the Southeast, so it's important to keep those
new plants protected (if you want to keep them around). The National
Weather Service has issued widespread freeze warnings for Tuesday
night/AM Wednesday as temperatures could dip into the 20s and lower 30s
for several hours in the areas highlighted below.

Forecast Lows Tonight

Forecast Lows From Normal

Nice Weather Fades in Seattle
Thanks
to my good friend Aaron Theis for the picture below. He snapped this
picture on Monday in Seattle, WA prior to the weather souring on
Tuesday. Places in the West will have some pretty unruly weather over
the next few days.

Seattle 3rd Wettest March on Record
Did
you know that as of Monday, Seattle has seen 7.71" of precipitation
this March? We're are 4.77" above normal precipitation and are
considered to be at the 3rd wettest March in recorded history!

Precipitation Forecast Next 7 Days
According
to NOAA's HPC the 7 day precipitation forecast for the West Coast looks
quite impressive! Note the near 5" to 7"+ maximums. Unfortunately, this
additional moisture is not necessarily a good thing at this point for
folks near the community of Oso, WA. With the additional heavy
precipitation in the forecast, the fear is that additional debris flows
can't be ruled out!

Washington Flood Concerns

*
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IN NORTH CENTRAL
SNOHOMISH COUNTY... * UNTIL 530 PM PDT TUESDAY. * THE LANDSLIDE THAT
BLOCKED THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER SINCE SATURDAY MORNING
HAS BACKED UP WATER UPSTREAM OF THIS LANDSLIDE EAST OF OSO. THE POOLING
WATER IS CAUSING MINOR FLOODING OF HOMES AND ROADS IN THIS AREA. THE
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEW RIVER CHANNEL IS BIG ENOUGH TO
DRAIN THE LAKE FORMED BEHIND THE BLOCKAGE. WE WILL BE UPDATING THE FLOOD
WARNING ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS. * FORECAST...WATER BEGAN TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SLIDE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. DOWNSTREAM GAGES ON THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER HAVE RISEN
BACK TO NEAR WHERE THEY WERE BEFORE THE BLOCKAGE OCCURRED. THIS MEANS
THE POOL OF WATER UPSTREAM OF THE OSO AREA LANDSLIDE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
SLOWED ITS RATE OF INCREASE AND PROBABLY HAS STOPPED GROWING ALTOGETHER.
THE FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THERE IS CONFIRMATION THAT
FLOODING HAS ENDED.

Sierra Snow Potential
The
heavy Pacific moisture is not all bad though! The Sierra Nevada Range
could see as much as 1ft. to 2ft. of snow by the time this is all said
and done later this week!

Late Week Storm
An impulse of energy will break off and head into the central part of the
country for the 2nd half of the week. Heavier rain/snow and possibly
even some severe weather can't be ruled out. Note the large storm that
appears to be moving into the middle part of the country by PM Thursday.

Severe Threat
Here's the outlook from NOAA's SPC:

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY
ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. BY THURSDAY...WITH A BELT OF WESTERLIES
EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC MOST PROMINENT. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...THE REMNANTS OF AN INLAND ADVANCING LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPEAR
LIKELY TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR U.S...INCLUDING ONE
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE THAT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM NOW EVIDENT IN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT STILL
APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING AWAY
FROM THE GULF COAST REGION BEFORE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND
INLAND RETURN FLOW IS ABLE TO YIELD A SEASONABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR. BUT A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY DOES APPEAR TO EXIST FOR MODEST WARM SECTOR
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY FROM THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...FROM MIDDAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

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About Me

Welcome to my weather blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I'll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use.
I'm still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I've started 5 weather-related companies. "EarthWatch" created the world's first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations - Steven Spielberg used our software in "Jurassic Park" and "Twister". My last company, "Digital Cyclone", personalized weather for cell phones. "My-Cast" was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation.
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Twitter name: pdouglasweather