Fearing an election backlash, Nitish is set to dilute liquor laws. But he may lose women voters in the bargain.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is all set to water down the prohibition law he so grandly proclaimed in 2016. His government will table amendments in the monsoon session of the state assembly to withdraw provisions to impose collective fines, higher penalties for repeat and habitual offenders, and for passing off country liquor as IMFL (Indian made foreign liquor). The amendments will help first-time offenders get bail at police stations. Further, Section 38 of the Bihar Prohibition and Excise Act, 2016, which mandates a 10-year jail term and a Rs 10 lakh fine, is expected to be withdrawn. As amended, the law will exclude family members of the accused person, who, under the existing provisions, are liable to suffer penalties. The amended law will also do away with provisions to attach assets of accused persons.

Although the state government insists that the relaxations are part of an ongoing review process, the timing-less than a year before the Lok Sabha elections-is telling. A senior leader of the ruling Janata Dal (United) concedes that bypoll losses in Araria and Jehanabad in March, and the Jokihat assembly seat in May may have contributed to Nitish's change of heart.

Bihar's prohibition law has landed over 1,41,000 people in jails. It is widely accepted that the JD(U) lost Jehanabad and Jokihat because of police action against Dalits under the prohibition law. In fact, opposition leaders, particularly former chief minister Jiten Ram Manjhi, have been vocal on how Dalits have been bearing the brunt of the anti-liquor law.

It is a fact that a large majority of those arrested under the prohibition legislation are Scheduled Castes and OBCs-sections that constitute a significant support base of the JD(U).

However, it is just as true that prohibition has strengthened Nitish's image among women voters irrespective of caste. Analysts say, Bihar's women voters have emerged as a "caste-neutral" constituency for the chief minister. Prohibition has discernibly brought down domestic violence and raised the disposable family incomes in the state.

Since April 5, 2016, state agencies have registered 117,000 cases under the prohibition law. Some two million litres of IMFL and 900,000 litres of country liquor have also been seized during this period.

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