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Monday, September 29, 2014

Communication in the Internet Century usually means using email, and email, despite being remarkably useful and powerful, often inspires momentous dread in otherwise optimistic, happy humans. Here are our personal rules for mitigating that sense of foreboding:

1. Respond quickly. There are people who can be relied upon to respond promptly to emails, and those who can’t. Strive to be one of the former. Most of the best—and busiest—people we know act quickly on their emails, not just to us or to a select few senders, but to everyone. Being responsive sets up a positive communications feedback loop whereby your team and colleagues will be more likely to include you in important discussions and decisions, and being responsive to everyone reinforces the flat, meritocratic culture you are trying to establish. These responses can be quite short—“got it” is a favorite of ours. And when you are confident in your ability to respond quickly, you can tell people exactly what a non-​response means. In our case it’s usually “got it and proceed.” Which is better than what a non-​response means from most people: “I’m overwhelmed and don’t know when or if I’ll get to your note, so if you needed my feedback you’ll just have to wait in limbo a while longer. Plus I don’t like you.”

2. When writing an email, every word matters, and useless prose doesn’t. Be crisp in your delivery. If you are describing a problem, define it clearly. Doing this well requires more time, not less. You have to write a draft then go through it and eliminate any words that aren’t necessary. Think about the late novelist Elmore Leonard’s response to a question about his success as a writer: “I leave out the parts that people skip.” Most emails are full of stuff that people can skip.

3. Clean out your inbox constantly. How much time do you spend looking at your inbox, just trying to decide which email to answer next? How much time do you spend opening and reading emails that you have already read? Any time you spend thinking about which items in your inbox you should attack next is a waste of time. Same with any time you spend rereading a message that you have already read (and failed to act upon).

When you open a new message, you have a few options: Read enough of it to realize that you don’t need to read it, read it and act right away, read it and act later, or read it later (worth reading but not urgent and too long to read at the moment). Choose among these options right away, with a strong bias toward the first two. Remember the old OHIO acronym: Only Hold It Once. If you read the note and know what needs doing, do it right away. Otherwise you are dooming yourself to rereading it, which is 100 percent wasted time.

If you do this well, then your inbox becomes a to‑do list of only the complex issues, things that require deeper thought (label these emails “take action,” or in Gmail mark them as starred), with a few “to read” items that you can take care of later.

To make sure that the bloat doesn’t simply transfer from your inbox to your “take action” folder, you must clean out the action items every day. This is a good evening activity. Zero items is the goal, but anything less than five is reasonable. Otherwise you will waste time later trying to figure out which of the long list of things to look at.

4. Handle email in LIFO order (Last In First Out). Sometimes the older stuff gets taken care of by someone else.

5. Remember, you’re a router. When you get a note with useful information, consider who else would find it useful. At the end of the day, make a mental pass through the mail you received and ask yourself, “What should I have forwarded but didn’t?”

6. When you use the bcc (blind copy) feature, ask yourself why. The answer is almost always that you are trying to hide something, which is counterproductive and potentially knavish in a transparent culture. When that is your answer, copy the person openly or don’t copy them at all. The only time we recommend using the bcc feature is when you are removing someone from an email thread. When you “reply all” to a lengthy series of emails, move the people who are no longer relevant to the thread to the bcc field, and state in the text of the note that you are doing this. They will be relieved to have one less irrelevant note cluttering up their inbox.

7. Don’t yell. If you need to yell, do it in person. It is FAR TOO EASY to do it electronically.

8. Make it easy to follow up on requests. When you send a note to someone with an action item that you want to track, copy yourself, then label the note “follow up.” That makes it easy to find and follow up on the things that haven’t been done; just resend the original note with a new intro asking “Is this done?”

9. Help your future self search for stuff. If you get something you think you may want to recall later, forward it to yourself along with a few keywords that describe its content. Think to yourself, How will I search for this later? Then, when you search for it later, you’ll probably use those same search terms. This isn’t just handy for emails, but important documents too. Jonathan scans his family’s passports, licenses, and health insurance cards and emails them to himself along with descriptive keywords. Should any of those things go missing during a trip, the copies are easy to retrieve from any browsers.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

They fired me. They fired me as CEO. Then they fired me as a board member. Then they took away my shares. And now none of them ever talk to me.

I started the company, I had the initial idea, I raised $30 million for it from A+ investors (i.e. “rich people”),

I bought two companies for it, I hired the first 50 employees, and then I was shown the door.
The reason? I was a bad leader. Here are some things I didn’t know about my own company: I didn’t know what our product did. I didn’t know any of the clients. I didn’t know how much money we made. I didn’t know how much we lost. And I had crushes on the secretaries and maybe two or ten other employees.

I would’ve gladly stuck my tongue in the ears of any of those employees. Eewww!

But why was I fired?

I just didn’t do anything… for… anyone.

I never wanted to talk. I would lock myself in my office and people would knock and I would pretend not to be there.

If anyone wanted to talk to me about “vision” I would just nod my head and say something like, “make it happen”, like I was Captain Picard on the Starship Enterprise.

Being a leader doesn’t mean you are the guy who runs things.

Being a leader doesn’t mean you created something or you did something great in the past or some other person has given you any kind of authority.

Being a leader happens RIGHT NOW, today, and can be done without money, without authority, and without anybody. First, you have to lead yourself.

It’s a mindset. I’m going to make a list. Forgive me. Feel free to add to the list or add your own experiences in the comments. In fact, I would really appreciate if you can add to this list.

After running 20 or so companies (most of them failures). After investing in 30 companies (most of them successes) after advising or being on the board of a dozen companies (most of them successes) and after being married twice (50% success rate), I have a sense of what I think a leader is.

I may be wrong but this is my list.

A) MORE SUCCESS FOR OTHERS THAN FOR YOU

Most important by far: you care about the success of others more than you care about your own success. Everyone around you needs to ultimately become better than you.

That’s how you lead. The light is in front of you and you take them to the light and then go back.

If all the people around you achieve more than you, then life will be good. You don’t have to believe me. I’ve seen this happen repeatedly.

It doesn’t matter if they are employees, investors, friends, spouses. If you just focus on this one principle in all of your actions then you are a leader. Today: figure out how the people around you can have a successful day.

Hint: don’t stick your tongue in their ear.

B) YES, AND

I just wrote a book called The Power of No. Buy it because your life will be better (and I am not ashamed of plugging it).

But now I’m about to tell you to say “yes”.

Claudia had an idea for a joke this morning that she wants to start a talk off with. I had a suggestion to change it. I didn’t say, “Don’t do that. Do this.” I said, “Yes, and…” a technique used in improv comedy.

What does it mean? I trust Claudia and value her thoughts so I if I just say “no”!” it shows I haven’t given enough respect into the time she put into coming up with an idea.

So I say “Yes, and” … and say what is good about her idea and then how I think it can be made even better and why. I give all of her ideas and thoughts respect and add to them rather than ever subtract from them.

CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM WORKS LIKE THIS:

a. “Yes, and”
b. List what’s good
c. How you would improve
d. Figure out the vision that is the base of the idea that you are talking about.
e. Connect the “Why” of what you are suggesting to the initial vision. Does it work better than the initial idea?
f. Be open to the fact that you might be wrong. ALWAYS ALWAYS you might be wrong.

C) GRATITUDE

I was talking to Lewis Howes yesterday. He’s an athlete turned multi-million dollar webinar and Linkedin expert after living on his sister’s couch. He was on my podcast a few months ago.

I don’t have a voicemail set up on my phone. But Lewis told me his voicemail says, “before you leave me a message, tell me one thing you are grateful for.”

He says the messages people leave blow him away.

I always imagine a good leader is surrounded by people who call their mothers at the end of the day and tell them, “Mom, you can’t believe what I did today. Let me tell you about it.”

Not that every day is fun. Because some work isn’t. But make sure every day your employees can call Lewis Howes and they have at least one new thing they can be grateful for.

Maybe they learned a new skill. Maybe they met a new client and created value for that client. Maybe a client they hated was fired because you can’t let your employees get the disease that bad clients are all too happy to spread.

D) THE 30-150 RULE (OR…THE VISION RULE)

Below 30 people, an organization is a tribe. 70,000 years ago, if a tribe got bigger than 30 people there’s evidence it would split into two tribes.

A tribe is like a family. With a family you learn personally who to trust and who not to trust. You learn to care for their individual problems. You know everything about the people in your tribe.

At 30 people, a leader spends time with each person in the tribe and knows how to listen to their issues.

From 30-150 people you might not know everyone. But you know OF everyone. You know you can trust Jill because Jack tells you you can trust Jill and you trust Jack.

After 150 people you can’t keep track of everyone. It’s impossible. But this is where humans split off from every other species.

We united with each other by telling stories. We told stories of nationalism, religion, sports, money, products, better, great, BEST!

If two people believe in the same story they might be thousands of miles apart and total strangers but they still have a sense they can trust each other.

A LEADER TELLS A VISIONARY STORY. We are delivering the best service because…. We are helping people in unique ways because…. We have the best designs because…. We treat people better because….

A good story, like any story ever told, starts with a problem, goes through the painful process of solving the problem, and has a solution that is better than anything ever seen before.

First you listened to people, then you took care of people, but now you unite people under a vision they believe in and trust and bond with.

Companies live and die on this. One company I advise got built up by buying 200 regional offices, now they are unifying them under one brand.

The key to their success is how powerful the story will be that they tell of that brand. Why are they delivering the greatest value? People need to believe in the story.

By the way, this is how humans killed everyone else. Because now we could plan and coordinate in much larger groups than any other species. That’s why there are no other sapiens left on the world. Only homo sapien sapiens (i.e. “humans”).

Proof: within 3000 years of humans first landing in Australia, no species was left that could put up a fight with us. We killed them all.

Yay humans!

E) CHANGE

Everyone has pain they don’t want to feel. For instance, I might feel pain if someone makes fun of my looks. I used to feel pain if someone questioned my net worth, which I equated with self worth. If I’m CEO I might have pain if the “numbers” go down.

So we do things to hide the pain. We might wear nice clothes not because we like the clothes but because they are buffers for the pain: nobody will make fun of my looks.

Imagine all the things we do as buffers for pain. We might avoid going to the store because we don’t want to run into the people who cause us pain. We might hide some numbers because we don’t want investors to think we are bad CEOs.

Soon, everything in our lives we might think give us pleasure (because we are now avoiding all the pain) are actually just buffers against pain and change.

When you can get rid of the buffers against pain and change life becomes more insecure, but we become FREE.

We live in a bigger world, a world where risk and beauty go hand in hand and we are no longer afraid of the underlying pains.

A leader is always prepared for change. And realizes that pain is just opportunities to live in a bigger and more abundant world.

This is the secret that most people forget when they build their brick houses and hide inside from the outside world so pain doesn’t seek them out.

F) DIGNITY

The other day someone cancelled on my podcast at the last minute. I had rescheduled other meetings and even changed the time I would see one of my daughter’s plays so I could interview this person, a very very successful entrepreneur.

She wanted to now reschedule but I said “no”, even to the detriment of my podcast and all the people who work with me on the podcast who were looking forward to the interview.

I wasn’t angry with the person. She’s running a business and was probably very busy. And people reschedule all the time. I just didn’t like that it was last minute. I had studio time booked and no space to fill it.

I have a vision for my podcast. Everyone who comes on are people who have transformed their lives and created the lives they wanted to. I want my listeners to be helped by the transformative stories of my guests.

The world is changing very fast and it’s scary. I want to help people be less scared and I know I am less scared when I hear the stories of my guests and learn from them.

Although I’m relatively new at podcasting (7 months), I treat my podcast as if it’s already achieved the dream I have for it. The place where people come on to help others deal with the crazy changes happening in our world and economy.

If I don’t treat my own projects with respect then how can I expect others to?

If I don’t treat myself with dignity, then how can I expect the people around me to treat me, or even each other, with dignity?

G) THERE’S ALWAYS A GOOD REASON AND A REAL REASON

People come to you every day with problems. The problems are usually very good problems. “The client is asking for too much”. Or “Jill didn’t do her job right” or “My car broke down”. One time an employee asked to meet me outside the office. She was crying. I asked her what was wrong. She was afraid she was doing a bad job with a client.

And she was. But it turned out the real problem was she heard one of my business partners talking poorly about her behind her back and this was affecting her every day at work.

This was the real problem that had to be fixed. And it did. And then everything, employee, client, partner, etc went well.

In 100% of cases there is a good reason and a real reason.

A leader listens to the good reason and comes up with a solution. But then listens even more closely to try and figure out what the real reason is. There is ALWAYS a real reason. Listen for that and see if you can help.

A good solution solves one problem. A real solution solves 100 problems.

H) HEALTH

A sick leader is not a great leader. A leader who is spending time with people not good for them is not a good leader. A leader who doesn’t constantly practice creativity is not a good leader. A leader who is not grateful for the abundance already in his or her life will never lead his vision into abundance. He won’t know how.

There’s no such thing as instant health. There’s only such thing as practice and progress. All you have to do is check the box on progress. Progress compounds every day into enormous Abundance.

I) LOVE

Warren Buffett says he skips to work and that he would do the work he does for free. Maybe it’s easy for him to say that because he has 50 billion dollars.

But I’ve gone through and read his letters from the 1950s when he was first starting out. These letters are not publicly available. I had to really try hard to find them when I wrote the book on them in 2004.

But when he was broke and starting his business in his livingroom you can read from his letters that he loved what he did. He took glee in finding companies that nobody else knew about so nobody was looking when they became horribly undervalued and he would then buy those companies.

Don’t do something just for the money. Money is a side effect of persistence. You persist in things you are interested in. Explore your interests. Then persist. Then enjoy all the side effects.

J) LEAD YOURSELF

You don’t need to be leading anyone.

Before I can lead anyone I have to lead myself. I have to read. I have to try and improve 1% a week. I have a handful of interests and I have a lot of experience.

I have to get better at the things I’m interested in. I have to understand more deeply the painful experiences I’ve had, I have to every day practice the health: physical emotional mental spiritual, that I suggest to everyone else.

Sometimes I don’t. And I feel it. But that’s ok. Don’t regret. Today is a new day. Today is the only day.

The definition of “success” for me is: “Is today successful?”

Because who knows if tomorrow will even exist. Today is the only day I need to think about success.

And every successful tomorrow is determined by one thing: having a successful today.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

What is the point of spending so much money on a watch?

There has long been elegance and prestige associated with a fine watch made with precious metals and jewels. Originally, finely crafted, precision mechanical timepieces also served a serious need in accurate timekeeping needed to facilitate travel and communications across moderate to significant distances.

But now, technology has made it possible to have an accurate wristwatch as the free toy in a fast-food kid's meal. Yet the aspects of watches as fine functional jewelry with poetic and nostalgic ties to their origins remain. I'm sure others can better describe and explain the value people find in owning and wearing fine jewelry.

What it really boils down to is this: any wristwatch over US $200 is more jewelry than a timepiece. So forget about evaluating such items by adding up the cost of components, factoring in the value of precious metals or imagining some supreme value hidden in the mechanism inside. That takes you on a slippery slope to the insanity of people who argue over technical specifications they don't truly understand, trying to intellectually justify wristwatch values for technical and logical reasons that hold little, if any, tangible merit or benefit.

Since an inexpensive quartz watch will look fine on your wrist and tell you the time accurately, there is no real functional value to paying more for a watch. Choosing a timepiece that accomplishes the same function using a more complicated older mechanical technology, a premium quartz technology that is marginally more precise, in a casing with highly refined detailing or of precious metal, or bearing the design hallmarks of a famous maker are all values that exist only to bring personal and intellectual satisfaction and enjoyment. In other words, jewelry value.

The truth is that the value of jewelry is entirely emotional. Any penny spent over $200 on the price of a watch is buying you only more jewelry value and greater emotional satisfaction in having something more unique--nothing more.

Why would I want a mechanical/automatic watch when quartz is more accurate?

Simple. Quartz is clearly better on accuracy. But there are many other advantages and pleasures from wristwatch ownership beyond just measures of precision levels that are beyond the notice of many people.

Frankly, quartz watches and many other technologies don't really do anything significant to better people's lives. People with quartz watches are no more reliably on time than people with mechanical ones. People driving cars with manual or automatic transmissions still get where they are going equally well. People still enjoy music about as much as they used to, even though CDs play it more clearly that tape or LPs did. You are not likely to have any smarter thoughts simply because you wrote them down with a computer than with an ink pen. You can easily spend as much time playing golf or football on an accurate computer simulation game as on a real playing field, but the experience is not any more fulfilling at the end of the day. And you can certainly do a lap around the lake faster in a speedboat than in a rowboat, but what have you really accomplished?

The newer technologies often gain a level of efficiency that makes them... uninteresting. In many cases, the older ways and technologies were more than sufficient, and it is their minor failings that give variety and character to doing things that way. With the older ways, you usually have to be more aware of details, understand more of what you are doing, and take more time being involved in the process. That greater interaction makes the process more personal and enjoyable for some people.

With the newer ways, you can be pretty assured your quartz watch is on the right time, your car's automatic transmission won't miss downshift on the way home, your CD will play exactly the same as it did yesterday, your computer will catch and correct your typos and misspellings, your video game won't stop in the middle because of rain or a player injured in a tackle, and you certainly won't be bothered seeing much of the detail and wildlife on the lake at high speed from your motorboat. How boring.

Mechanical watch enthusiasts often compare the movements, the finishing, the level of adjustment, types of certifications, performance under different circumstances and other esoteric measures of mechanical timepieces.

Quartz watch enthusiasts compare... mostly accuracy measures.

So if efficiency is your main desire, then quartz is for you. If you are tired of efficiency and want something interesting instead, try a mechanical watch.

What is the real reason why mechanical versions -- even of the same watch -- are more expensive?

You will often find mechanical and automatic watches at a significantly higher price than a comparable quartz model. In some cases, a manufacturer will even offer the identical watch with your choice of a mechanical or quartz movement. The mechanical watch will be more expensive. Some people will tell you it is because the mechanical movements are highly refined, others that mechanical movements are very expensive and quartz very inexpensive. Most of that is baloney or exaggerations. Here are the real reasons why.

Cost to Manufacture: The high quality quartz movements used in better luxury watches are slightly cheaper to make than their mechanical counterparts, though the difference is not that great. Keep in mind that cost of the movement in most luxury watches accounts for only a small portion of the final retail price -- less than 5%.

Warranty Service: Since there is almost nothing to go wrong with a quartz movement, warranty claims for quartz watches are very small. Mechanical movements are more likely to incur an in-warranty service, so that cost is factored into the price.

Distribution: Mechanical movement watches are sold in much smaller quantities, so have less economies of scale in the distribution system. While collectors and enthusiasts often prefer mechanical watches, the general public still predominantly buys quartz. So mechanical watches do not turn over in inventory as fast as quartz, causing the manufacturer and dealers to have a somewhat slower return on their investment in stocking them.

Exclusivity: As with virtually all jewelry -- and don't kid yourself, any wristwatch over US $200 is mainly jewelry -- there are premiums you pay for certain above average features. Precious metals, synthetic sapphire crystals, mechanical movements, advanced timekeeping modes (complications) and precious stones all are at significant premiums over their mere cost.

Which watches are collectible?

The whole concept of specific watches--or anything else--being "collectible" is a falsehood. People become mindless lemmings because of some mystic significance to items being called "collectible." They hear things called that and go out and spend money because they blindly think it is a good thing to buy them. There is a broad public perception that things that are labeled "collectible" are good investments--when in most cases, they are far from it.

Beanie babies are a good example. Trivial little toys that ought to cost well under $1, yet people pay outrageous prices in the tens to hundreds of dollars to get them to complete the collections they feel compelled to build. If you ever wish to get your money back out of this 'investment,' you have to find someone even more driven by the collectibility craze than you to sell it to.

The latest form of this collectibility craze began back in the 1970's or so when people started discovering that some items they or their relatives had gathered over the years were suddenly in demand by buyers of memorabilia. This created a 'gold-rush' mentality as everyone started hoping that some of the old items in their basements or attics would be worth huge sums of money. The $1 million find: a first edition comic book, a one of a kind early work of a later famous artist, or some other rare, special or in-demand item from the past.

Once people rummaged through all their current family possessions looking for hidden treasure, they were still unsatisfied--because most of it really was worthless junk. So to continue the gold-rush of trying to get rich off items that collectors desired, people then started buying up things they hoped would magically become valuable. This has led to a society of people who spend tremendous amounts of money buying items old and new, hoping some of it will become like a lottery ticket, magically paying off in the future.

You should NEVER buy something just because anyone tells you it is collectible. Instead, buy what really appeals to you without regard to whether anyone else is collecting them. The term "collectible" has become a cheap label that sellers will slap onto anything--knowing that it causes people to mindlessly associate greater value--usually without even questioning the validity of the claim.

However, keep in mind that "rare" and "hard to find" (if truthfully applied to an item) are positive attributes that make things interesting additions to your collection. But anything being automatically or inherently "collectible" itself is a completely meaningless concept. You should be listening only to your own counsel on what is meaningful or interesting to you to own.

The truth is that anything is collectible if someone wants to collect it. Some of the most valuable collections were items that people had no idea would be valuable in the future. And if your objective really is to try to make money, you would likely be much more successful putting your money in traditional financial investments rather than betting on 'rare finds.'

What is and is not important when choosing which NEW watch to buy

Often, you will find yourself choosing between two or more intriguing NEW watch purchase options. So how do you determine what factors you should most and least consider?

BRAND REPUTATION is IMPORTANT-- Learn about the reputation of the watch manufacturer. Don't ask watch-store sales people, they often are staggeringly ignorant on watches and often speak a lot of authoritative sounding nonsense, half-facts and downright wrong information. Instead, ask people who already own the types and brands of watches you are considering. Post questions on Internet forums dedicated to watches. And certainly, read all you can here on the Chronocentric site.

RESALE VALUE is IMPORTANT, but ONLY IF YOU UNDERSTAND IT CORRECTLY-- Many buyers have lost lots of their money on poor watch purchase decisions made based on poorly understood measures of "high resale" value. People usually incorrectly focus on how much of their investment they will get back if they resell a watch. But you should instead be focusing on how much you gain or lose in the transaction. Read the next section down titled Watches with a good resale value are a good investment, right? for a more comprehensive look at this issue.

TYPE OF DEALER you shop at is IMPORTANT-- Look at what types of stores are the authorized dealers for the brands you are considering. If you are spending a lot of money on a watch, do not just shop at general department stores or stores that sell mainly low to mid price jewelry. Look at what choices are only available at the much better jewelry stores to get a fuller understanding of the whole spectrum of watches available. The "best" brand at a department store is not necessarily your best choice or best value for your money. Also, make sure you understand whether the dealer you are considering buying a watch from is an authorized dealer for that specific brand. If they are not, then you need to understand the issues involved in buying from unauthorized dealers as described below in the section titled What are 'gray market' watches?.

UNDERSTANDING YOUR WANTS AND NEEDS is IMPORTANT-- You will make the best choice in your purchase if you understand what you want and what is really important to you in owning a fine watch. Many people get caught up in excessive details that end up impairing, rather than increasing, their enjoyment. Consider what you want: a watch to impress other people, one to impress you, something stylish, something that makes a statement, one that only you know it is special, with unusual functions, of specific metals, for dress/casual/recreational/active/sports wear, so accurate that you never need to think of resetting it between time changes, or any of dozens of other attributes. Once you have a good handle on these aspects, it will be much easier to select a watch.

KNOWING WHAT YOU BUY is MORE IMPORTANT than BUYING WHAT YOU KNOW-- Often, the best brands of luxury products in terms of quality and value are ones the 'average Joe' may seldom if ever hear of. Rolex and Tag Heuer are the two premium watch brands that are best known to the general public. But simply being popular is not a guarantee that those brands are your best choice or the only high quality, high value products the market has to offer. It is far more beneficial for you to research all your options instead of blindly selecting among the few brands that are 'household names.' You may still end up choosing one of their watches--but do so out of knowledge of your choices, not ignorance of them.

BRAND HISTORY is of SOME IMPORTANCE-- While many brands trace their heritage back 100 years or more, you need to consider how informative this is based on whether the watch you are about to purchase is better because of the experience this history implies, or is merely riding on the coat-tails of ancient successes or bought out fine names of long ago. A number of modern brands bearing fine names are mere shells of what their companies meant decades ago. Look at their new models and compare them to the older models for sale on used watch dealer sites and Internet auctions. Are 5 year old models of this brand worth anything? Are the much older models worth more than more recent ones? These can be signs of dramatic changes in the quality of watches from a manufacturer.

WATCH MOVEMENT DETAILS are usually of LITTLE IMPORTANCE-- Unless you are an expert, connoisseur or collector, do not worry to much about the details of the movement inside a watch beyond whether it is a) quartz, b) certified mechanical (Chronometer), or c) non-certified mechanical. Frankly, most watches from any premium brand are sufficiently fine devices for keeping time that will give you several decades of use if properly maintained. Technical details of the mechanical "movement" (the actual mechanism inside the watch) are seldom particularly important unless the watch you are buying is over $10,000 or has some unique functions. Over 98% of mechanical watches made mainly tell the time, date, and maybe include chronograph functions. All mechanical watches with just these basic features use technology invented over 75 years ago, and nobody has really improved it since then. So do not waste time fooling yourself into believing one standard mechanical watch mechanism is perceptibly different from another--especially to the extent of paying more for one watch over another based on that attribute alone.

ROMANTIC NOTIONS OF WATCHMAKING are MOSTLY UNIMPORTANT and OFTEN FALSE OR MISLEADING-- Many fine watchmakers try to give the feel that their expensive products are finely hand crafted. They do this by creating an image of your watch being made by generation old families of dedicated watch craftsmen, in a quaint village in the Swiss Alps, with movements made by the same people who make the rest of the watch, each crafted over long periods of time. But all of that is nothing more than romantic baloney designed to make you feel better about spending so much money on a watch. The truth is that very few watches under US $20,000 are hand crafted. Most are mass produced by machines in large quantities. Even the highly reputed Rolex is mass produced--they make over a million watches a year! Notions of the movement of the watch being better if made 'in-house' than if made by a separate company (even if owned by the same parent organization) are antiquated concepts that have little to no meaning in the modern age of large corporations and mass production. In fact, it is the modern techniques of mass production that ensure the higher level of consistency and quality that we enjoy of modern watches.

PRICE is NOT IMPORTANT -- "What?" you say? Price not important? That's right--it is not!! Price is only one measure of the value and deal you are getting. What good is a low price alone when the dealer is unable or unwilling to resolve a problem and you have no recourse with the manufacturer because you bought through an unauthorized cut-price dealer? What good is saving an extra few percent on a very expensive purchase if the product never arrives, turns out to be a counterfeit look-alike product, lacks good warranty coverage, or otherwise will disappoint you or cost you more money in the long run? So always choose your watch over the value you will receive for your money, not simply the lowest price for something that looks like what you wanted.

NUMBER OF JEWELS INSIDE THE WATCH is NOT IMPORTANT -- The number of jewels in the watch movement are normally prominently mentioned as if they really meant something. But in fact they are a just a red herring. These are not jewels of value. They are small synthetic ruby elements used as extremely low friction pivots for a few critical parts of a watch mechanism. They are worth only a few pennies and do not add value to a watch. The exact number that is appropriate for any watch movement depends on the exact design and functions of the movement. It is perfectly normal for two watch movements with identical performance and functions to use a different number of jewels. A standard mechanical movement usually requires a minimum of 17 jewels--but beyond that, more is not better in any way that you could interpret.

What are the real advantages and disadvantages of buying from authorized dealers?

While authorized dealers are normally the safest choice for buying an expensive watch, there are many other options. Making the most informed decision is always the best choice.

If you buy from an authorized dealer, then have a problem that they can not or will not solve, you can get the manufacturer to intervene on your behalf. But manufacturers have no control over or influence with unauthorized dealers, so won't be able to bail you out of a problem with them.

*Some* authorized dealers are adding their own 1 or 2 year warranty extensions over the manufacturer's factory warranty.

The factory warranty you get through an authorized dealer can be honored by any other authorized dealer and the manufacturer's service center. But the warranty from an unauthorized dealer will only be honored by that specific dealer. If your unauthorized dealer goes out of business, your warranty coverage goes up in smoke.

An authorized dealer can special order accessories and unusual versions (like on optional bracelets/straps or special purpose calibrated chronograph bezels) that non-authorized dealers usually cannot.

Many people do not realize that you can mail order from an authorized dealer. If you know what you want, you do not have to physically visit an authorized dealer's store to make a purchase. Most can accept a credit card purchase by telephone or fax and ship the watch to you. If you give them the measurement of the diameter of your wrist, they can even pre-size the watch bracelet for you.

But authorized dealers are far from consistent or perfect. In addition to usually offering only modest discounts off of the manufacturer's retail price, authorized dealers sometimes come with these disadvantages:

Highly variable in knowledge, courtesy and willingness to negotiate. Sometimes staffed by sales people with only basic sales experience from working in non-jewelry stores. Some will not take you seriously as a customer if you do not look like an extravagant or wealthy person.

You may have multiple dealers in your area, requiring you to shop multiple locations and different stores to find the item you want or negotiate your best deal.

You may have no dealers in your area. Authorized dealers are concentrated mostly in and near highly populated cities, so are convenient shopping venues for only a moderately small portion of the watch buying public.

It can be difficult to find out what all the authorized dealers are in your area. Not all manufacturers are able to provide complete or current lists when you contact them for dealer information.

Typically, you must travel to them during the days and hours they are open.

Dealers often have very limited subsets of the watches available from any one manufacturer. They will usually offer to order other models for you. But at that point you are no better off than ordering it direct by telephone or Internet.

May have watches that have been excessively handled by browsing customers, faded or otherwise impaired from being left in a sunny display window, are no longer with their correct box and other packaging, or have had parts like straps, clasps or premium display boxes swapped out with other watches of the same brand to make one customer happy at another's expense.

Dealers seldom bother to carry original accessories for the brands they sell. If pressed, they might offer to special order them for you. But it is often less trouble ordering them yourself from the manufacturer's service center.

Often unaware of new models and options due to insufficiently updated manufacturer's catalogs and lack of access or desire to read the manufacturer's website.

Often use ploys of creating fear, uncertainty and doubt to scare you away from other dealers--rather than offering a true value advantage to earn your business.

What does a COSC certification or Chronometer rating on a watch really mean to me?

While highly touted, a COSC certification or Chronometer rating on a mechanical (manual wind or automatic) watch really doesn't mean all that much anymore. Most any modern mechanical watch from a luxury watch brand is capable of operating at the performance level tested to receive these certifications. The rare case of a certified quartz movement is a different issue, which is addressed in article Aren't some quartz watches certified as Chronometers, too? in the section on Accuracy.

People frequently mistake a chronometer rating as an absolute guarantee of performance to a particular specification--usually the often quoted -4 to +6 seconds per day which is actually only one of the seven performance measurements used in the test. In fact, the certification testing is nothing more than an additional quality control test that the movement in the watch passed at some time in the past, long before it was even assembled into your watch. It is not a guarantee that the watch will never deviate outside a particular range. In fact, mechanical watches are normal to deviate--that's why the chronometer rating exists in the first place. The range of these tests were established decades ago, when the average mechanical watch was nowhere near as accurate as they are today.

Imagine getting an A+ in math in high school and then being expected to never ever make a mathematical mistake the rest of your life. That's not how performance tests work. They only certify that you have proven once to have achieved a specific measure of performance under reasonable conditions. They neither mandate that you can never vary below that level in the future, nor do they prove that someone else who did not take that same test can never meet or exceed your level of performance. But having once established that you can achieve that level, the certification gives greater public confidence that you can perform similarly well in the future.

Same with your mechanical watch. It may have passed a test in the past, showing it was capable of getting an A+ in performance. But the actual day-to day performance of any mechanical watch--certified or not--can change a lot based on how well the watch is wound, what position it is left in overnight on your dresser, whether it takes a significant bump during the day and other factors. So do not give tremendous amount of weight to the significance of these certifications. In particular, do not assume that a specific watch is inferior because it lacks a certification--it did not take the test and fail, it simply never took this optional extra test.

The reason that some watches are still submitted for these certifications is more as a marketing and sales tool among competing brands. The presense of a certification can give you a small measure of additional confidence in the selection of your watch, but nothing more than that. Most any mechanical watch from a premium brand, when adjusted properly, will perform to within the certification ratings.

I am worried after reading on the Internet about some people having a problem with the watch I'm thinking about buying.

Virtually none of any of the 'problems' you might hear about are more than isolated cases. Expensive watches are not different from any other elaborate mechanical item, whether it is Rolex, Omega, BMW, Mercedes, or other such items that are simultaneously high-end and large production volume products. Despite superior quality control procedures, all are subject to minor manufacturing inconsistencies and technical glitches. It is virtually impossible to find any luxury brand of technical product that at least a few people have not had a problem with.

In addition, many first-time owners of luxury and mechanical watches have misunderstandings and unreasonable expectations of the operation, accuracy, durability and limits of these fine timepieces. So often, complaints or criticisms come from concerns not actually related to any real defect or problem with the watch itself.

To give some perspective to the issue, consider the largest of the luxury watch manufacturers, Rolex, who manufactures over 1,000,000 watches a year. Even if they have an astronomically high 99.995% perfection rate (they do not publish their actual rate, so this number is purely an example of an extremely high perfection rate), that means that over the past ten years, 50,000 watches may have been sold with imperfections that might need to be addressed.

Most of the people you see posting on Internet watch forums have bought at least one and frequently three to five new expensive watches in the past 10 years. When these people mention any bugs they experienced, you are seeing a sampling of problems across a huge number of watches and a large number of years. Certainly any brand will have some reported problems. But given the relatively small number of problems mentioned of Omega, Rolex and most other premium watches in the online forums, that sampling rate proves that these watch manufacturers have an excellent success rate. The unfortunate but inevitable imperfections appear to be at an extreme minimum and are normally addressed within the warranty period.

Occasionally an unhappy customer of a product will post an anti-company propaganda web site to harass the company--often out of vengeance or a 'pay me off to shut me up' motive. Despite a lot of emotional wording, these crusades attempting to scare customers away from the company's products are seldom based on anything more than an isolated case of customer confusion or mishandled customer service. Some continue to post disparaging information long after the issue was amicably resolved with the dealer or manufacturer.

So do not let any isolated complaints or problem reports scare you off any of these fine brands. For every isolated problem report for a top brand luxury watch, there are thousands of satisfied owners who never experience any difficulties.

Watches with a good resale value are a good investment, right?

Watches can be a good investment--but not for everybody. One really important thing to remember, watches, like automobiles, normally lose value over time and are not good investments unless you really know a lot about the market and specific items you are investing in. Anytime you buy a watch or car new, the value immediately drops. For fine wristwatches, many can be resold for only 40% to 80% of what you will pay for them from a new watch dealer.

For the average watch enthusiast, buying and selling of watches is usually at a loss. Maybe a break even at best. Most consider this simply the cost of owning the watch for the months or years they enjoy it.

Do not be confused or misled by statements that certain watches have a 'higher resale value' than others. Since almost all watches (except the truly rare and special collectibles) lose value over time, you have to judge the resale value of a watch by what you lose, not what you get back.

For example, say you have a choice between a $3500 watch that has an 80% resale value versus a $1750 watch with only a 60% resale value. The more expensive watch sounds like the better investment. But when you look at how much you will lose, the result may be surprising.

While these numbers are only examples, they show that you need to specifically evaluate your choices rather than simply relying on generalizations about 'better resale.' For investing and resale, used watches are often a better financial deal because they are already depreciated to the resale value--so you are much more likely to be able to resell them at close to what you paid for them.

Watches not a good investment? But many classic watches sell for far more now than when new!

Sure, there are many stories of watches that are worth much more than was paid for them years ago. But as described above, do not let general statements and shallow analyses mislead you on what truly is or is not a good investment. Again, watches are seldom a good financial investment--and then only for the people who are truly lucky, truly knowledgable or are dealing with one of a few very high-demand watch models.

For example, someone asked about a Omega Speedmaster Professional bought in 1969 for $300 which today sells in good condition for a minimum of $1000. Sounds like the watch has more than tripled in value by looking at just the raw numbers. But has it really? Let's look at the same scenario converted to "real dollars."

Based on the Consumer Price Index in the USA, $300 in 1969 translates to about 4.7 times as many dollars in 2000. So spending $300 on a watch back then is equal to buying a $1400 watch today. If that watch is now worth at least $1000, then it has retained over 70% of its real value. In "real" terms, that watch has only cost 400 modern dollars (plus maintenance) for 31 years of enjoyment. Quite respectable, but certainly not the astounding "tripled in value" story that it initially appeared.

In another example, a basic Rolex DateJust bought in 1981 for $900 would equal $1700 spent in 2000. This watch is now worth at least $1400, so has also retained over 80% of its "real" value. That translates to a cost of 300 modern dollars (plus maintenance) for 20 years of enjoyment of this watch.

So while almost all watches are depreciating investments--meaning they will lose, not gain, value over time--many if cared for well maintain enough value that their cost of ownership is not only very affordable, but potentially less than many lower priced watches.

So what makes a watch have good resale value?

Firstly, there is no magic formula for making money off of watches with high resale values. As described above, watches are generally quite poor as financial investments. The best you should expect is to buy a watch that you will enjoy. If you think yourself likely to ever resell your watch--something only a small percentage of luxury watch owners ever actually do--then the tips below should help you choose with a clearer understanding of what does and does not contribute to resale value.

The objectives of used watch buyers are somewhat different than for new watch buyers. Used watch buyers seek greater value in their purchase in return for foregoing some of the benefits of purchasing their watch new. Therefore, the appeal and attraction of various watches may be noticeably different on the new versus used market.

New watches are priced with 'exclusivity' premiums for certain luxury features such as precious metals, diamonds, mechanical movements or special editions. The resale market still values such premium features, just not at the heavily inflated values of the new market prices.

Condition plays a major part of used watch values. All new watches are assumed to be in new condition and warranted. But used watches bear additional variability and risk. Specific brands, models and movement calibres may have reputations for better or worse than average reliability.

General interest and demand for specific brands and styles fluctuate. Sometimes a positive review of a particular model will notably increase demand for them on the used market.

To understand what makes a watch have a good or bad resale value, you really need to look at it from the perspective of what makes a buyer more or less willing to pay for a particular used watch?

Aspects that have a very positive influence on resale value:

RARE or HARD TO FIND-- Following the basic economic principle of supply and demand, anything people want but is hard to get, they will be willing to pay more for.

LIMITED EDITIONS-- Watchmakers occasionally release "limited editions," often tied to celebrating some company anniversary, historic event, or to boost enthusiasm for a model line. These editions are often uniquely numbered. If adequately limited to a small number, these have a very decent resale value later.

ACTIVE WARRANTY-- Definitely a plus if the factory or dealer warranty is still valid and transferrable to the buyer.

TRACEABLE TO A FAMOUS PREVIOUS OWNER-- One unique category of valued watches are those worn by some person of note. In particular, specific watches documented to have been worn by movie stars or historical figures--especially during the filming of a movie or at an historical event--do command premium prices on the used and collector markets.

Aspects that may have only a small influence the resale price:

NOT SO LIMITED "LIMITED EDITIONS"-- Releases of limited editions of a model are not very limited when quantities reach 5,000 to 10,000 or more. These numbers may sound fairly small, but are not that far from how many of a specific model variation the company would sell in a year or more anyway. When a company releases too many of a supposedly 'limited' release, the resale values drop to close to what a regular edition of the watch would sell for.

MECHANICAL VERSUS QUARTZ VERSIONS OF THE SAME WATCH-- Some watchmakers release identical or similar models in quartz and mechanical movement versions. The finer brands usually add a moderate 'exclusivity' premium to the prices of their mechanical watches. At resale, the mechanical versions still command a premium over quartz counterparts. But the differential is often reduced enough to make the quartz versions have a slightly better resale value compared to their original price.

ORIGINAL BOX AND PAPERS-- While many people like receiving the original boxes with their purchase, few people do anything with them but store them in a closet. So the original packaging may improve the salability of a watch, especially if the watch is to be a gift. But the boxes and papers do not add much to the selling price unless the watch is close to new.

INTERESTING SERIAL NUMBERS-- On rare occasions, a watch will surface with an interesting serial number. Examples include: even numbers; numbers with interesting patterns; numbers that relate to beginning, end or year changeover in production; or hidden meanings like an Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch with the date of the moon landing appearing in the serial number or a James Bond Rolex Submariner or Omega Seamaster Pro with serial number ending in 007. While these add a novelty interest to the watch, the influence on resale value is usually trivial.

Aspects that lose the most value on resale:

GOLD, PLATINUM or other PREMIUM METALS-- While precious metal watches do sell well on the used market, they do not command the same premium that they did when new. Such watches carry very inflated 'exclusivity' prices when new--often 10 to 20 times the value of the metals used. Upon resale, the values better reflect the market value--not the exclusivity premium.

DIAMONDS-- Diamonds on dials, bezels and other parts of a watch are an expensive addition on new watches. But like with precious metal on watches, these bear a significant 'exclusivity' premium in the new watch pricing that is several times the value of the diamonds themselves.

BOTTOM OF THE LINE MODELS-- A few premium brands have a clearly bottom of the line model that lacks the features and status of their main product lines. Rolex in particular does this with their "Air-King" series and other models where the least expensive version lacks the date or COSC certification. Buyers of new watches are sometimes attracted to these models as the least expensive way to get close to the watch they want for less money. But these step-down versions almost always lack the better values and desirability on the resale market, so are often a poor choice when resale is of concern.

And finally, aspects that notably hurt resale values:

WATCHES WHERE SERIAL NUMBERS HAVE BEEN REMOVED-- An unacceptable but somewhat frequent practice of gray-market dealers is to remove serial numbers from discounted watches. For some brands, the manufacturer may refuse to service the watch at any authorized service center or supply certain replacement parts to independent watch repairers for that watch. That risk reduces resale the value, especially for brands that have publicly declared they will not service such watches.

CUSTOMIZED WATCHES-- Watches, like automobiles, sometimes get customized by their owners. Often this is done by inscribing names, dates or memento information on the back, or by using aftermarket parts or parts from different models to make a unique piece. While these modifications cost the owner more money, they usually devalue the watch and reduce the chances of finding someone else that would want one customized in that manner.

BRANDS WITH POOR DURABILITY-- Not all expensive brands are made equal. Some mid range brands sacrifice long term durability in their products.

BRANDS WITH HEAVY RETAIL DISCOUNTS-- Resale prices are usually based on the retail selling price, even when some discounts are customarily available. But brands sold officially through cut rate stores or places where they are often marked down heavily usually have poorer resale as they are readily available cheaply. Note that this does not effect premium brands that sometimes found--quite unofficially--through warehouse stores like Costco and Sam's Club and other clearly non-authorized dealers.

Why is the warranty sometimes longer depending on where you buy the watch?

Watch manufacturers typically offer limited--often only 1-year-- factory warranties on their products. But in this modern world, that is a pretty nominal warranty period for such an expensive purchase. To give customers a greater feeling of confidence (and combat the tactics of unauthorized dealers), many authorized dealers offer to extend the warranty out an additional one or two years.

What is important for you to know is that--in most cases--this additional warranty coverage is not through the manufacturer or their official and international service networks. The watch manufacturer's warranty obligation to you ends under the terms of the original factory warranty, which usually covers just the first year. After that time, the manufacturer's service center any other authorized dealers will not be able to provide free service under the "extended" portion of the warranty. Those additional year(s) of coverage are between you and the specific dealer who sold you the watch. So should you need service during the "extended" period, you must take the watch back to that specific dealer.

Unauthorized (gray market) dealers, who cannot include even the initial factory warranty with watches they sell, have been trying to gain a competitive advantage by offering their own warranties of longer durations. But again, any such warranty is through that specific dealer and will not be recognized or honored by the manufacturer or any other watch dealer.

What does it mean when someone sells a watch with an 'open warranty' or 'open papers?'

The phrases "open warranty" and "open papers" create an impression in the novice watch buyer's mind that the warranty is transferrable and opened ended--so it can be activated whenever they want to start the (usually one year) warranty period. But beware, this is often far from the truth!

What it actually means is the warranty paperwork was inadequately completed. Incomplete paperwork can cause your warranty to be effectively null and void. In some cases, the warranty is validated by a dealer stamp, but the date is left blank. In other cases, it may mean the warranty card is totally blank. In either case, the warranty is likely useless.

A warranty card is not a pass to free service all by itself. A dealer or manufacturer's service center may well request further documentation beyond just the card to establish the date of purchase or authorized dealer status of the point of initial sale. This is not unusual as many warranty cards are lost, unreadable or incomplete--even coming from many of the authorized dealers.

So no matter what the warranty card says, it is not by itself a guarantee of service. If it cannot be backed up with the owner providing a sales receipt from an authorized dealer that matches the date of sale, then the warranty card will likely NOT be honored. People have tried playing games with warranty cards for decades and the manufacturers' service centers know what to look for to spot bogus warranty claims.

What are 'gray market' watches?

Gray market watches are genuine watches from the original manufacturer. They are not fakes or factory seconds. The only thing that makes them different is that they passed through an unauthorized dealer or reseller on the way to you. Where this becomes an issue is that the manufacturer's warranties are not valid on these watches.

What about fake, replica, look-similar, and counterfeit watches?

Most popular makes of fine watches are prone to having their designs copied by manufacturers of replica watches. These watches sell from as little as $10 to several hundred dollars--but $100-150 appears to be the most common range. They vary from generic look-alike to exacting reproductions of the exteriors of the genuine watch. Often, even details such as the manufacturers logo, serial numbers, and other markings are reproduced.

Also, some of the department store brands of watches including Peugeot, ESQ, Fossil, Citizen, Wilson, Timex, and even Seiko will make watches that look suspiciously similar (but not quite close enough to get them in trouble) to the popular models of the high end brands like Omega, Rolex, and Breitling.

What should I know about buying NEW watches from Internet dealers?

Omega and many other fine watch makers' official positions are that you should not purchase new watches from dealers who sell over the Internet. They say you should visit an authorized reseller of their products to make your purchase. Almost none of the fine watch manufacturers have allowed authorized dealers to sell over the Internet, but I am happy to report that there are an increasing number of exceptions.

Ironically, many of these manufacturers who object to the mass of unauthorized dealers on the Internet offer only very limited information on their watches on their official web sites. So they essentially force people who have no easy access to an authorized dealer--or have an unknowledgable authorized dealer--to seek out the unauthorized Internet vendors to get adequate information on the majority those products.

Buying through an authorized dealer is the safest way to acquire any fine watch. You should have no problems obtaining warranty service directly from the manufacturer or any of their authorized retailers or repair centers. You should have no risk of receiving a fake, gray market, or serial-number-less watch. While many will initially quote you retail price, in many areas, you should be able to negotiate 10-20% off that price. Increasingly, even authorized dealers are including an extra year or two on top of the manufacturer's warranty.

You do have alternatives, but each entails some risk in return for saving more money on your watch purchase. A number of the risks are described in the sections above on Gray Market and Fake/Replica watches.

Since most fine watch makers do not permit authorized dealers to sell over the Internet, then it is likely that any watch purchased over the Internet would be a gray market item at best. Many people have had excellent experiences buying from reputable gray market dealers who are honest and stand behind their products. There are also reports of people who have had very unsatisfying experiences buying from authorized dealers. As with any expensive purchase, ask a lot of questions and learn as much as you can about the product and the seller before making any purchase.

Also, do not confuse authorized dealers that communicate over the Internet with unauthorized dealers that sell directly on the Internet. Most fine watchmakers use the Internet to display their products and communicate to their customers. An increasing number of reputable, authorized dealers can be reached through the Internet for information and will accept telephone or fax orders and ship the product to you.

What should I know about buying watches on Internet auctions and 'for sale' boards?

The increasing popularity of online auctions and for sale forums opens a larger number of watch buying opportunities along with a chance to deal with hundreds of different and potentially completely unknown sellers. Beyond the common risks of dealing with dishonorable sellers, the biggest thing you need to protect yourself from are sellers that prey on people in individual or private sales over the Internet. Use appropriate cautions buying watches off of online auction houses, such as eBay.

Here is the list of warning signs to watch out for:

Does the seller claim to know little to nothing about the watch?
Occasionally you will see a genuine-looking watch that the seller appears to know little to nothing about. This may lead an enthusiastic buyer to think they are getting a killer deal on a genuine watch from an uninformed seller. But the seller may be being intentionally evasive on details so you cannot go back against them for any misrepresentations when you discover that the watch was not what you thought.

Does the seller use a vague or untraceable explanation of where they obtained the watch?
Explanations such as receiving the watch as a gift, winning it in a poker game, finding it at an estate sale, buying it while drunk, or similar shaggy-dog stories obscure the watch's true origin and make it difficult to hold the seller accountable for the authenticity of the watch. I even saw one auction where the seller claimed to have won the watch in a bet--yet his photo showed two versions of the same watch side by side.

Does the seller say they cannot guarantee the authenticity of the watch?
Think about it. Can you seriously believe that the seller is so foolish as to take several hundreds of dollars less for an expensive watch--instead of paying a jeweler a few dollars to verify it first? Never buy a watch that the seller does not guarantee the authenticity or you cannot have verified by an independent party before giving the seller any money.

Does the seller show a photo of what should be the actual watch for sale? Or did they use a professional photo swiped from a catalog or manufacturer's website?
Never buy a watch without seeing a photo of the actual one you are getting! If you do, you may be quite unpleasantly surprised at the condition or authenticity of what you receive.

Are there any oddities or inconsistencies in the seller's description of the watch?
If the watch is a recent model, compare the seller's photos and descriptions to the known fake watches on display in the zOwie Rogues Gallery of Fakes. Do they mention a see through back on a watch that should not have one? Check every attribute that they mention against what you know and can find out that the real one should have.

Is the seller truly a private individual selling just one or two watches from their collection as they imply?
Look for prior sales of similar watches from the same individual. Some people make a business of selling fake or otherwise questionable watches every couple of weeks.

Are the other bidders on a watch actually real people and legitimate buyers?
A further devious tactic is for a questionable seller to have multiple identities on the Internet or friends acting as 'shills.' These additional fake buyers will submit bids to make it look like people are fighting to get an item. This frequently prompts real bidders to join in on the frenzy--assuming that the popularity means the item is genuine and worth more than is being asked. Baloney! Look for other bidders that may have recently changed the name on their accounts or that have very low feedback counts.

For sale forums on watch collector oriented sites may be safer. Since they are public forums frequented by watch experts, you are more likely to see knowledgable people jump in to comment on suspicious-looking watch descriptions, photos, or other claims by sellers. You'll also have easy access to experts that enjoy answering questions on their favorite subject--watches!