Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) had been demonstrated to play an important role in the evolution of prokaryotes. Their impact on phylogeny was the subject of a heated debate, with some proposing that the concept of a species tree should be abandoned. The phylogeny of prokaryotes does contain a major part of the historical signal, because stable and functional horizontal transmissions appear to be by far rarer than vertical transmissions (tens versus billions). However, the cumulative effect of HGT is non-negligible and can potentially affect phylogenetic inference. Therefore, most researchers base their phylogenetic inference on a low number of rarely transferred genes such as ribosomal proteins, but they assume the selection of the model of evolution as less important, this despite the fact that it has been shown of prime importance for much less deep divergences, e.g. like animals.
Here, we used a combination of simulations and of real data from Archaea to study the relative impact of HGT and of the inference methods on the phylogenetic accuracy. Our simulations prove that (1) HGTs have a limited impact on phylogeny, assuming a realistic rate and (2) the supermatrix is much more accurate than the supertree approach. We also observed that more complex models of evolution not only have a better fit to the data, but can also have a direct impact on different phylogenetic groups and on the robustness of the tree. Our results are in contradiction to a recent publication proposing that the Thaumarchaeota are at the base of the Archaeal tree.