Thursday, May 5, 2016

Leaked memos from Egypt’s interior ministry discussing ways
to counter mounting public anger at the government of general-turned-president
Abdel Fattah Al Sisi raise the spectre of a split between the military and
security forces over how to deal with expressions of public discontent and
potentially about the future of Mr. Al Sisi’s presidency.

This latest leak, contrary to past leaks, many of which were
from within the military rather than the interior ministry and appeared
designed to portray Mr. Al Sisi in a negative light and undermine his
credibility, seems inadvertent. The internal memos were sent by the ministry to
journalists by mistake in an email that was supposed to contain a regular news
roundup.

The significance of the leak in evaluating relations between
the military and the security forces lies in the fact that some of Egypt’s
military-controlled, state-owned media like Al Ahram, which is believed to take
its cue from Mr. Al Sisi, and pro-government privately owned media, backed a
call by Egypt’s journalists’ union for the resignation of interior minister Magdy
Abdel-Ghaffar.

Members of the union staged this week a sit-in in defiance
of Egypt’s draconic anti-protest law in front of the interior minister in
support of their demands after security forces raided the group’s offices on
World Press Freedom Day. Two journalists were arrested during the raid on
charges of calling for anti-government protests against Mr. Al-Sisi's recent
decision to transfer two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia.

In response, security forces surrounded the building of the
journalists’ syndicate. The raid of was the first in the 75-history of the
union despite decades of varying degree of censorship.

The transfer of the islands during a recent visit to Egypt
by Saudi King Salman sparked rare public protests. The protesters although far
smaller in number than those that toppled Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak adopted
slogans reminiscent of the chants employed during the 2011 popular revolt.
Protesters shouted “Bread, freedom – the islands are Egyptian!” during recent
protests, an adaptation of the 2011 chant, “Bread, freedom and justice.”

In addition to backing the journalists’ call for Mr. Abdel-Ghaffar’s
resignation, Al Ahram reported that various Egyptian papers were publishing
“the image of Egypt's interior minister in negative, instead of positive, as a
form of protest.” The papers also reported favourably on the journalists’
protests and their further demand for the release of scores of their colleagues
who have been arrested in recent months.

The backing of the journalists by pro-Sisi media as well as
media critical of the president constitutes a pushback by Mr. Al-Sisi against
criticism of his presidency by prominent Egyptian journalists who had initially
supported his 2013 coup that toppled Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brother who was
Egypt’s first and only democratically elected president. It also followed a
string of leaked tapes in recent years designed to sour Mr. Al Sisi’s ties to
his financial backers in the Gulf by highlighting derogatory remarks that he
made.

Both the criticism of Mr. Al-Sisi and the leaks would have
had to have had the tacit approval of a military unit that oversees the
Egyptian media. The unit, according to some of its employees, has military
officers in various television studios, vets reports before publication, and at
times drafts news stories that are then published in the media.

Mr. Al-Sisi’s counter strategy appears to go beyond proxy
battles in the media. He has moved to make Egypt’s unreformed and brutal
security forces look more accountable by putting several officers on trial on
charges related to abuse of human rights.

The indictments followed a string of incidents involving
security forces and local residents that provoked spontaneous local protest.
The incidents and the raid have fuelled calls for long overdue reform of the
security forces who, according to human rights activists, have been allowed to
operate with impunity.

Mr. Al-Sisi, in an extraordinary gesture in February, also
reached out to militant soccer fans, a backbone of protest in the country. His
overture constituted recognition of the fans’ street power.

The tacit power struggle between the military and the
security forces is all the more remarkable given the fact that the interior
ministry and the security forces used much of Mr. Morsi’s short-lived tenure to
persuade the military to act against him and to feed on popular discontent with
the president’s attempts to seemingly Islamicize Egypt to create a popular
movement that would back his removal. That effort resulted in mass protests in
late June 2013 that paved the way within days for Mr. Al-Sisi’s coup.

The backing of the journalists’ union by the pro-Sisi press
contradicts the recommendations made in the leaked memos that are intended to
shield the interior ministry and the security forces.

The memos recommended that the ministry not back down in its
conflict with the union and suggested that the prosecutor general impose a gag
order on the investigation into the killing of Giulio Regeni, an Italian PhD
candidate who was abducted in January and severely tortured before his body was
found days later on the outskirts of Cairo. The ministry has denied that security
forces were involved in the killing, which has strained ties between Egypt and
Italy.

The memos also called for the boosting of the ministry's media
image and monitoring capabilities, including the hosting by popular television
shows of former police generals to communicate its message and stepped-up monitoring
of news websites on a 24-hour basis.

Prosecutor General Nabil Sadek has since issued a gag order
on the case of the two journalists arrested in the union offices. Al Ahram and
other media reported on the journalists’ protests on their front pages in
defiance of the order.

"(The ministry) cannot retreat from this position now;
a retreat would mean a mistake was made and if there was a mistake who is
responsible and who is to be held to account?" one of the memos said.

Egypt’s military has long been happy with the security
forces doing the regime’s dirty work and shouldering the blame for it.
International pressure and mounting discontent with the government’s failure to
deliver economically have however persuaded Mr. Al-Sisi and those segments of
the military that continue to back him that the impunity of the security forces
is damaging Egypt’s image and undermining the regime’s legitimacy.

The interior ministry’s fear that it could be held
accountable lays bare its concern that its security forces could become a
scapegoat. It is a concern that could widen emerging gaps in the country’s
ruling elite.

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James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile