Earlier scenarios

For more than 40 years we have developed scenarios to identify emerging global challenges and to guide us through change. From the oil crisis of the 1970s to the financial crash of 2008, they have helped us make crucial choices in uncertain times and tackle tough energy and environmental issues.

Scenarios help us to understand how the world and its energy systems could change over the coming decades.

Their purpose is to challenge our thinking, so that we can make better business decisions and meet our commitments to others. It is in this spirit that we offer them as a contribution to public debate.

We have produced Shell Scenarios since the 1970s. They have helped us anticipate and adapt to momentous events like the oil shocks of the 1970s, the collapse of communist Europe in 1989, the surge in world energy demand and the threat of climate change.

Prepared for an oil shock

Arab oil-producing countries imposed an oil embargo on Western governments in October 1973 – a response to US support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war. Within weeks, the price of crude oil soared from around $2.50 a barrel to $11. The high price restricted economic activity in the West, causing a slump in the stock market and a rise in unemployment.

Shell’s scenarios work had allowed it to foresee and, to some extent, prepare for this shock. We were able to recover more quickly than our competitors.

A vision of post-apartheid South Africa

Following the official end to apartheid in South Africa, Shell’s approach to scenarios inspired a series of meetings by politicians, business leaders, trade unionists, academics and community activists to consider the country’s future. Supported by the Shell’s Scenarios team, they devised four plausible scenarios for the country from 1992-2002. The project contributed to a common vocabulary and mutual understanding.

Responding to AIDS

While the number of new cases of HIV and AIDS may be falling in sub-Saharan Africa, 1.8 million people were newly infected in this region in 2009 alone. The United Nations drew on Shell’s approach to scenarios to devise three versions of the future that explored the consequences of different government actions. These scenarios helped to guide the leaders’ response to the epidemic and to work out which response to the crisis would create the best outcome for Africa, Africans and the rest of the world by 2025.

Energy-water-food

The number of people on our planet is rising. Our demands will place increased pressure on supplies of energy, water and food. The relationship between these resources seems simple: water is needed to produce most forms of energy; energy is required to treat and transport water, and food production relies on water and energy. It is, however, more complex. Shell has used scenarios to help explore the future dynamics of these vital resources.

Our latest look at the future, New Lens Scenarios, was published in 2013. Below are some of its predecessors, which you are able to download here, in which we assess the futures that may lie ahead.

Scenarios to 2050 (2011)

The two scenarios ­- Dynamics as Usual, and The Spirit of the Coming Age - contrast a progression in energy use from coal to gas to renewables, against the potential for a hydrogen-based economy.

They remind us that energy systems are dynamic, able to respond to changing conditions, choices and possibilities. They suggest that the rise in CO2 emissions can be halted within the next 50 years, without jeopardising economic development.

Scenarios to 2050 (2008)

Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 considers two plausible versions of the future.

The first scenario, Scramble, sees policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks.

In the second scenario, Blueprints, local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. Financial incentives encourage the development of clean energy technologies, achieving lower CO2 emissions and offering the best hope of a sustainable future.

Download Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 in your language:

Scenarios to 2050 (2011)

Signals and Signposts is a supplement to our 2008 publication, Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050. It assesses the long-term effects of the financial crash of 2008, and the resulting economic recession, on the global energy system.

An Explorer’s Guide (2008)

Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide is written for people who would like to build and use scenarios or who want to enhance their scenario skills. It describes the approach used to develop a set of global scenarios, illustrated with examples from our own assessments of the future.