(CNN) – If the weather is good on January 3, Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucuses; if the weather is bad, a weaker turnout will result in a victorious Ron Paul, former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee predicted Sunday.

Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, said the devotion disparity between supporters of the two contenders could greatly impact the outcome in the early voting state.

“Ron Paul has an exceptional organization there and it very well could be that he could end up winning because of the extraordinary devotion of his followers," the former Arkansas governor said on “Fox News Sunday.” “He's got people that would walk over broken glass for him, and they break the glass to be able to say they did it.”

“That’s where Mitt is at a disadvantage, he doesn’t have the devotion,” Huckbee added.

He also said Rick Santorum is underestimated and suggested the former Pennsylvania senator might place in the top three or four.

Santorum has made social issues the pillars of his White House bid in the Hawkeye State, much like Huckabee, a former minister, did in 2008. Despite success among the state’s religious voting bloc in the last presidential election, Huckabee’s Iowa win failed to catapult him to the GOP nomination, which was ultimately captured by Arizona Sen. John McCain.

The latest Iowa poll from the American Research Group released Friday showed Paul, Romney and Newt Gingrich in a statistical tie - with 21%, 20% and 19% support respectively. All the remaining candidates received less than 10% each.

Huckabee said negative ads have hurt former House Speaker Gingrich, who surged to the top of national and state-wide polls a few weeks ago but has now seen his support start to recede. To Huckabee, the negative advertisements sow doubt in the minds of voters, particularly those who have yet to make a final decision.

“If you’re soft on a candidate and every day you get pounded with about 20 messages … it’s easier to switch at that point,” Huckabee said. “That’s what’s happening to Newt.”

But Huckabee cautioned against using state-wide polling as the key predictor for the caucuses. In the end, it is the committed and devoted supporters that make the difference in Iowa’s system, he said.

“Polls, you pick up the phone and you say ‘ya, I kinda like so and so,’” Huckabee said. “Caucus, you’ve got to drive somewhere and stand up and be counted for that candidate. It’s a very different kind of atmosphere.”

NOTE: While it's too early to forecast precisely what the weather will be in Iowa on January 3, long-range climatological models indicate a warmer and drier January across the Midwest, according to CNN Meteorologist Sean Morris. There is a strong La Nina in the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America, which typically causes winter storms to move across Canada instead of the lower 48 and keeps Arctic air bottle up North of the U.S.-Canadian border.

soundoff(81 Responses)

Tea Man

He's no conservative. Just a poser say what he thinks we want to hear.

December 26, 2011 09:19 am at 9:19 am |

Anyone But

Ron Paul? Seriously?? Seriously???? Lord, that's like a Space Cadet getting the nomination to the nation's highest office! Think about it! He worships cutting the things YOU, yes YOU Depend Upon!! What does he care? He's rich! That's why this man does not see what the normal Middle Class or poor person has to contend with on a DAILY basis! He would just as soon throw us under the bus and leave us out to dry! That's why if you want protection for what you have worked so hard for all of your life, it takes a DEMOCRAT to support you in that! Obama/Biden 2012!!

December 26, 2011 09:22 am at 9:22 am |

Indy

Typical Republican response is let the economy fix itself,let the banks regulate themselves, let the oil companies do whatever they want and the weather will choose your candidate.

December 26, 2011 09:29 am at 9:29 am |

opinion8it

didn't huckabee "predict" that he was going to be president last election?

December 26, 2011 10:45 am at 10:45 am |

Anonymous

Oh, we are all soooooooo interested in what Mike Huckabee has to say–NOT. Go back to FOX; no one gives you any credibility there either.

December 26, 2011 10:48 am at 10:48 am |

donotworry

So the weather will decide Iowa and incompetence and lack of structure will decide NH. Typical Republicans, say they are leaders and can't even get 10k votes on a petition. Or did people just refuse to sign for Perry and Newt? Each county had to have a certain number, so why wasn't the news getting that information? Because the candidates are already history by their own lack of leadership.