Why Brown won — and why he has to tread carefully

The test for Christine Elliott in the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership race wasn’t whether she could win the province, but whether she could win the party.

The test for Patrick Brown isn’t whether he can win the party, but whether he can win the province.

From the beginning of the leadership campaign, Elliott was clearly the establishment candidate, while Brown represented an insurgency.

She was the former deputy party leader at Queen’s Park while he was a rank outsider — a career backbencher in Ottawa. During nine years in Parliament he was all but invisible, sitting in the fourth row of the Conservative bench, never being named a parliamentary secretary or even a committee chair.

Elliott had the endorsement of 19 Conservative MPPs; Brown had only five. Two of the other three early candidates, Vic Fedeli and Lisa MacLeod, dropped out and went to Elliott months ago. A majority of federal Conservative Ontario MPs also supported her. And she raised much more money.

Yet the results, announced last Saturday morning, weren’t even close. Brown won with 62 per cent of the vote to Elliott’s 38 per cent. All 107 ridings are equal in PC leadership races, with 100 votes each — so it wasn’t as if Brown put himself over the top by selling memberships in ethnic communities. He won across the board, sweeping 83 seats. He won in the Toronto 905 suburban belt, and in northern and eastern Ontario.

While Elliott had the endorsements, Brown had the temples — having visited virtually every religious gathering in the province. He also had in his corner the prime minister of India, Narendra Modi — who essentially endorsed him during his visit to Canada last month — not to mention Wayne Gretzky, the hockey guy Brown hangs with at charity games.

Most of all, Brown had a ground game — as he proved both in selling new memberships in the earlier phase and in getting out the vote on two days last week.

And leadership campaigns are all about membership sales and getting out the vote. The Ontario PC party, dispirited after three election losses to the Liberals, were down to their last 10,000 members. The nine-month leadership campaign saw membership rise to 80,000, due mostly to the sales campaigns of Brown and Elliott.

Brown has been pro-life and against gay marriage, and while he said that sex education has a place in schools, he also thinks it’s better left to parents. These are all hot-button issues in Ontario, and he would be well advised to stay away from them.

Elliott, 60, had by far the higher profile, as the wife and then widow of former federal finance minister Jim Flaherty. When he went to Ottawa from Whitby-Oshawa in 2006, she ran and replaced him at Queen’s Park. In Whitby, they raised their triplet sons, one with special needs, and they both made persons with disabilities the great cause of their lives. The Abilities Centre in Whitby, part of which is now named for him, was their common vision realized.

One of the things that may have been missing from her campaign was the quality of his advice. His network of loyalists also would have been behind her — he would have seen to that.

In terms of policy and presentation, Elliott was clearly the stronger candidate, as was apparent in the leadership debates. She was also positioned in the centre of the political spectrum, where elections are won in Ontario (the one exception in the modern era being the election of Bob Rae and the NDP in 1990, which proved to be an accident of history). As leader, she would have been very hard for Kathleen Wynne and Liberals to beat because they couldn’t have pinned any social conservative nuttiness on her. And by 2018, after 15 years of Liberal rule, voters would be looking for a change — or even to ‘throw the bums out’, as Albertans did last week.

But while she was calling for an inclusive party, a ‘big blue tent’, Brown was asking Conservatives if they weren’t tired of losing — saying he wanted to play “for the win”, as his campaign slogan put it. It proved to be a compelling message.

Brown, still only 36, definitely represents generational change. He now calls himself a “pragmatic Conservative,” though he has a record as a social conservative. He’s been pro-life and against gay marriage, and while he told CBC Power and Politics Monday that sex education has a place in schools, he also thinks it’s better left to parents. These are all hot-button issues in Ontario, and he would be well advised to stay away from them.

He had an opportunity to demonstrate some growth Monday when Premier Wynne invited him and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath to join her in escorting Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard into the legislature, and then thank him after what proved to be a remarkable speech.

Brown is fluently bilingual, and spoke by far the best French of the three Ontario leaders. He demonstrated a sense of history in referring to the role of John Robarts, Ontario’s Conservative premier from 1961-71 and partner in the Canadian federation with Quebec’s Jean Lesage, the last Quebec premier to speak at Queen’s Park in 1964.

But then, in praising Couillard for his balanced budget and Quebec’s cheap hydro, Brown also sounded a partisan note on Ontario’s chronic deficits and high energy costs.

“You are taking steps to ensure the long-term financial health of your province — and are committed to keeping your budget balanced,” he told Couillard. “This is music to my ears and certainly to the ears of my colleagues.”

Then for good measure: “Low hydro rates mean a better business climate. Low hydro rates mean better circumstances for people.”

Listening uncomfortably to this was Wynne — who had graciously invited him to speak, even though he doesn’t even have a seat in the legislature yet.

Brown was clearly serving notice that, in hockey terms, he likes to mix it up in the corners.

L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of five books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94.The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

8 comments on “Why Brown won — and why he has to tread carefully”

I have been having discussions if Patrick Brown is a psychopath. For example this from disqus about his time on Barrie council to me says yes. Patrick Brown may just be a psychopath?

“Elected to Barrie city council pretty much fresh out of high school, he provided an interesting perspective on city matters. Not forward-thinking, not progressive, not good- just interesting.

Since then, the career politician has polished his ability to sell himself to the public; by rounding up thousands of Conservative memberships to push his candidacy for leader of the party, he’s done it again. I’ll never understand why people voted for him after his novel, young man’s campaign for councillor. From my observations, he’s a schmoozer, a weasel, and his only interest is in himself.

Actually, he fits in quite well with the current brand of Cons who are driving a once-dynastic party into the ground …”

You’ve hit on it, the not so mysterious empty substance of this party. A campaign that does everything to ignore the real problems because they represent the party that caused them. So it makes sense to direct potential voters, the personal ‘hot button issues’, associated with the also empty-ideological what Pierre Trudeau used to make disdainful comments about , such as “the government has no business intruding into our bedrooms’. Well, empty, tired, made-up issues work when concrete ones like, lost jobs. While still demanding that the only ones responsible for debt are the 99% ers, never corporations or banks.

I will defend my belief that Patrick Brown may be a psychopath. He fits the profile of the psychopaths I contend Christian conservatism attracts, enriches and worse empowers. The laws he supports facilitates Death.

Federal Voting Records

MP Patrick Brown
Conservative Party, Barrie, ON

BioContactVotesQuotesQuestionnaireVideo
Votes

Here is Patrick Brown’s voting record relating to life and family issues:

It is the lack of regard that Death is the consequence of Christian conservative economic and social policies I find indicative of psychopath behaviour. I see no other explanation than Christian conservatism is infested with psychopaths.

“These are all hot-button issues in Ontario, and he would be well advised to stay away from them.”
Call me naive but … one of the buzz words of politics these days is ‘transparency’, which IMO includes politicians stating clearly where they stand on issues, even controversial ones. Why would it be ‘safer’ for politicians to hide their POV on some of them? OK, so Mr. Brown has opposed same-sex marriage when it was the issue of the day. There was a vote in Parliament and most opponents have moved on, even if some of them did so grudgingly. Abortion? During the same interview Mr. Macdonald alludes to, I believe Mr. Brown stated he has no intention of re-opening that issue. Sex-ed? Well, it appears to be a concern among some parents currently, so why should Mr. Brown shy away from addressing it? And why should it be expected that every politician toe the “progressive” line? If he agreed with Ms. Wynne on everything, wouldn’t Mr. Brown be part of her party?