Technically, this leaves the Maliki coalition short of a majority (AP), but there are many small, unaffiliated Shia parties that will likely vote with him on most issues. His bloc is now extremely reliant on the Kurds.

(I would guess Sadr is trying to claim the nationalist/anti-American mantle as well as drawing distance with the increasingly unpopular Maliki government.)

Iran to a head

I don't know what's true and what's not, but the noise towards Iran is ratcheting up.

We've got the US very publicly committing to a base 5 miles from the Iranian border, claims of an Iranian 240mm rocket being fired at Camp Victory, the ludicrous claims of N. Korean nuclear tech into Syria, the mysterious and uncommented on Israeli airstrike on Syria, new claims of Iranian weapons flowing to the Taleban, and a sudden and very public "leaked" discussion that Mr. Bush may now be leaning towards Cheney's "bomb Iran" position.

I don't think this necessarily presages an imminent attack, but if both sides keep adding sticks to the pile, sooner or later it's going to topple over.

The future utility of the Sunni tribal/militia groups

Michael Ware made a very good point tonight. As Iraq does finally go into the crapper, these Sunni groups the US is arming, training, and building contacts with will likely be used by the US to violently counterbalance Iranian influence in Iraq.

Picture of the Day

((Now Former) U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales wipes away a tear as he takes the podium to make remarks to Justice Department staff members on his last day in the post in Washington, September 14, 2007. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst)

There have been no photos of Bush and Gonzales together since before Gonzales made his resignation. The only exception was at the 9/11 commemoration where they were kept far apart.

Friday, September 14, 2007

Picture of the Day - 2

Senator Joseph Biden, seen here in August 2007, has told the US war commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, that his military "surge" was failing to translate into political peace in Baghdad. (AFP/Scott Olson)

Picture of the Day - Electability

"Electability" talk is a sign of a party that is grasping at straws because it expects to get mauled in the polls.

(Republican presidential candidate former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has makeup apply before the Fox News Channel Republican Presidential debate at the University of New Hampshire, September 5, 2007. REUTERS/Brian Snyder)

Gillespie's "Golden Apples."

Look, it is pretty amazing that the President would utter an outright and provable lie in a major written speech, (36 countries having military troops in Iraq disproved in this WaPo fact check,) but understand that part of the point of this lie is to give critics something small to distract themselves with.

The White House is more than happy to argue about the size of "the coalition." That means we're not challenging the core substance.

This new "golden apple" tactic has become a feature since Gillespie took over Rove's spot. Watch for it.

Now we're supposed to vote based on Law and Order cases?

ABC has this article about Fred Thompson commenting on the Terri Schiavo thing. He said something, his campaign issued a correction, whatever.

But what really alarmed me is that the entire second page of the article discusses what Arthur Branch, Thompson's fictional Law and Order character, did in an episode which loosely mirrored the Schiavo case.

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Picture of the Day - 3

It takes a truly special kinda guy to come up with "declare victory and not go home."

Also notice we've gone from "victory" to "success."

(President George W. Bush looks up after delivering a televised address to the nation about troop levels in Iraq from the Oval Office of the White House in Washington September 13, 2007. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)

Pouring concrete

I was listening to some guy on the radio discussing the US/Russian dispute regarding the missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic.

He made the point that the Bush admin will never consent to the Russian requested change of venue for those facilities because the Bush admin wants to start "pouring concrete" before the next president arrives in office making discontinuation nearly inevitable.

It really got me thinking about how many different ways the Bush Presidency is trying to "pour concrete" broadly across its foreign policy, much like the current policy to pass the Iraq occupation on to the next administration or the potential irrevocable acts towards Iran.

This administration desperately wants to pour that concrete of irrevocability even if it is into a bucket attached to the next president's feet.

Later: From ABCNews and Tim Russert it sounds like tonight the President will commit to a "long term security arrangement" (permanent presence) in Iraq. (That's alot of concrete.)

Picture of the Day

CNN is reporting that Sunni sheikh Sattar Abu Reesha has been killed in a carbombing. This is the Sheikh that Bush smilingly shook hands with in Anbar 10 days ago.

I remember the discomfort on his face as if he didn't expect to be photographed.

(Later: I didn't catch this from Bush's visit ten days ago, "During his meeting with President Bush in Anbar last week, Abu Risha, reportedly joked that his people had achieved in four months what the American military could not achieve in four years.")

That's the bottom line, isn't it? The Shia are winning in the current status quo and have little need for reconciliation.

(By the way, this "Petraeus wants to be President" piece is likely to get big play, but notice the single source for this credibility sapping anecdote is an SIIC power man at the Interior Ministry who just happens to mention this in the middle of Petraeus' PR.)

Picture of the Day - 3

(A poster showing what to avoid doing when in contact with the Ebola virus, Congo, 2004. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has confirmed a major outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo (AFP/Alexandra Lesieur))

(WHO statement: "As of 11 September 2007, WHO is aware of 372 cases and 166 deaths associated with the ongoing event in the province. Additional samples have been taken for further laboratory analysis.")

There was very vague reporting last week of 180 Pakistani troops being captured by the Taleban without firing a shot.

Also: (CNN) "Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf -- a key U.S. ally -- is less popular in his own country than al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, according to a poll of Pakistanis conducted last month by an anti-terrorism organization.....

Bin Laden has a 46 percent approval rating. Musharraf's support is 38 percent."

And: Negroponte has arrived in Islamabad to try and help Musharraf wade through the politics of the Sharif deportation, and to push the US's preferred Musharraf/Bhutto powersharing deal.

As much as there is a lopsided policy balance in the administration between Cheney and Rice, Stephen Hadley represents a key swing vote. If he has, in fact, switched to the "bomb Iran" side, the momentum is already underway.

Picture of the Day

President Bush visited neither Ground Zero nor the Pentagon for a 9-11 commemoration.

(President Bush and first lady Laura Bush at a ceremony marking the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2007, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak))

Picture of the Day - 4

There's a new poll showing Thompson catching Giuliani, primarily by polling well among evangelicals and southerners, although you gotta wonder how that'll shake out.

(Bloomberg) "Republican presidential contender Fred Thompson, who is basing his campaign on an appeal to conservative voters, says he isn't a regular churchgoer and doesn't plan to speak about his religion on the stump."

(Former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson wipes the sweat off his brow after a town hall meeting in Davenport Iowa, September 8, 2007. REUTERS/John Gress)

Petraeus - Pied Piper to the Republicans

I think it's important to note that Petraeus' testimony and the concomitant White House PR blitz is not aimed at the American people, but instead towards the Republicans in Congress and the small base of remaining Iraq supporters in the country.

The goal is simply to stave off a Congressional voting bloc that could mandate changes to the current plan past the '08 election.

But as the majority of Americans have a fairly calcified opinion on the Iraq war as a whole, I have to wonder if Petraeus is actually serving as Pied Piper, luring the Republican Congressmembers away from the people they represent.

The Bush strategy right now is to get these Republican Congresspeople into '08 with a pro-Iraq position that can't be changed mid-campaign.

But I find myself wondering whether, come '08, the Republicans will find themselves looking around and alone, seeing only wilderness, and cursing the President and his Piper who led them there.

Picture of the Day

U.S. Army General David Petraeus, the top commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, gives a thumbs up to the committee as technicians work on the sound system after his microphone malfunctioned during testimony on Capitol Hill, September 10, 2007. (Jason Reed/Reuters)

Picture of the Day - 3

This photo released by the U.S. Army public affairs office shows Spc. Rodney J. Johnson, 20, of Houston, who died of wounds when insurgents attacked his unit Sept. 4, 2007 in Baghdad, Iraq. (AP Photo/U.S. Army)

Bits of the Iraq charade

McClatchy has a good article looking at the sea of statistics and concludes that there has been no major security successes from "the surge." (It appears that Sadr's decisions have more impact on security than those of the US.)

(Also in the poll, "Nearly two-thirds of Americans said the United States should reduce its troops in Iraq now or withdraw them. Asked if a timetable should be established for a 2008 withdrawal.... 64 percent favored doing so.")

Later: USAToday/Gallup: "A majority of Americans are sceptical of what Petraeus will report and most support setting a timetable to withdraw forces regardless of what is going on in Iraq."

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Taking his eye off the (exploding) ball.

Maybe someone should mention again that while George Bush has tied us down in Iraq, Al Qaeda has rebuilt its training camps.

Maybe, just maybe, someone should note that the terrorists in Germany (8 white guys) received Al Qaeda training on how to make chemical car bombs in Waziristan just last year.

As Rumsfeld put it four years ago, "Are we capturing, killing or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics are recruiting, training and deploying against us?"

Surprised?

From Drudge: "Following their testimony to Congress, General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker will appear exclusively on FOX News Channel on Monday at 9pm EDT for a one hour live interview with Brit Hume."

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that they're going on Hume's show, the man deemed safe enough to interview Cheney after he shot a man in the face.

Later: (WaPo/ABC poll) "Only about four in 10 said they expect the general to give an accurate accounting of the situation in Iraq. A majority, 53 percent, said they think his report will try to make the situation in Iraq look better than it really is."

Picture of the Day

Isn't this how his last marriage broke up?

(Republican presidential candidate and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) autographs a campaign sign attached to a Betty Boop cartoon figurine during a campaign stop at Alicia's Diner in Pelham, New Hampshire August 16, 2007. (REUTERS/Brian Snyder))

Someone finally wrote it (sort of)

The WaPo finally wrote (at least part of) the article I have been waiting for discussing some of the reservations about "the surge" within the Pentagon command. Unfortunately, they only really outline Gates' and Fallon's objections (Fallon's are far stronger than we knew,) and they frame the dispute almost entirely in the past.

Let's remember that Rice got outflanked as the Iran EFP campaign emerged just in time to derail those talks.

(This would be much more useful if it was written on the present, not what happened from January to May, and had included the objections of Gen. Pace, Gen. Casey, and the other dozen or so active generals who disagree with the policy.)

And, as a counterpoint, check out how this headlines from the AP: "Bush advisers favor current war strategy." The advisers are Petraeus and Crocker. I don't know why, but that seems a little deceptive to me.

Pakistan in crisis?

Again, I'm not enough of a Pakistan expert to judge the validity of this threat, but as Musharraf has arrested 2,000 of Sharif's supporters, I think we have to look at this as a rather serious juncture.

Picture of the Day

About This Blog

This is not the America I was brought up to believe in.
This blog seeks to highlight abuse of power, deception, corruption, and just plain bad ideas in government and corporations.
Updated several times a day.