Trump promises China is 'back in the market' for US soybeans, but government data suggests otherwise

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US was
already selling loads of soybeans to China, as trade talks with
Beijing resumed via telephone, with more meetings expected in the
near future.

Trump
told Reuters in a story published Tuesday night that China
was "back in the market" and "buying tremendous amounts of
soybeans" after the US and China reached a trade-war truce on
December 1.

But while Chinese officials reportedly said there has been no
decline in China's appetite for US-originated soybeans, US
government data shows no new large purchases of soybeans, Reuters
reported.

The news wire service said traders have seen no signs of
soybean movement since China imposed a 25% tariff in July.

Iowa grows soy, soy feeds pigs, China loves pigs. This is an
example of how trade between the world's two major economies
works, when it works.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that China was already
busy purchasing a "tremendous" amount of US soybeans,
Reuters reported on Tuesday.

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But while Trump told the news wire service that the Chinese
government was "back in the market" to buy soybeans - a critical
livestock feed for China - after a December 1 truce in the
US-China trade war, the details remain sketchy.

While the resumption of US soybean exports will be welcomed by
struggling US farmers, Reuters reports that traders in Chicago
flagged that they've seen little evidence of any soybean sales
since July, when
China first hit farmers with its targeted 25% tariff.

Certainly, according to unnamed officials who spoke to
Bloomberg, there has been no decline in China's hunger for
US-originated soybeans.

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In fact, the first batch of upcoming Chinese US soybean purchases
will almost entirely be stockpiled for state reserves, Bloomberg
said.

Additionally, Trump claimed that trade talks with Beijing were
already underway by telephone, with more meetings between
officials from both countries likely.

A soybean story

Soybeans are used largely for pork feed. And these days China is
eating a lot of pork.

Pork products are disappearing at more than twice the global
average in China. The meat is so important there now that the
country produces some 700 million of the animals every year -
more than half of which come from family farms, according to
a Reuters report published in February.

China's absolute domination of the global soybean market has
emerged alongside its demand for meat - particularly of the pork
variety - as its middle-class consumers move off a rice-dominated
diet to one where pork and poultry dominate.

China's livestock numbers have risen to meet the meat demand, but
it has been unable to produce enough animal feed to keep up.

It is a fascinating example of just how intertwined the US's and
China's economies are, with
farmers in Iowa sweating on the news coming out of China on
just when trade will resume.

"I just heard today that they're buying tremendous amounts of
soybeans. They are starting, just starting now," Trump told
Reuters on Tuesday.

But, according to Bloomberg, which cited unnamed Chinese
officials who spoke on the matter, said "the final decision will
be made by the State Council or cabinet."

It has been more than a week since Trump and his Chinese
counterpart Xi Jinping supposedly nailed down the details of a
trade-war truce at a
spotlit G20 meeting in Argentina.

However, while one side reported the good news one way, the other
side had its own interpretation. And in the end, neither version
went anywhere near to easing trade tensions that have erupted
again following the arrest of Sabrina Meng Wanzhou.

China loves its soybeans, and as the world's biggest buyer, it
has been very lean times for livestock literally reared on the
stuff.

Brazil is a major supplier, but it is the US, where around a full
third of China's supply is grown that plays the keystone role in
the protein rich feed.

Reuters reports that traders have been on the lookout for any
signs of US soybean purchases out of China, particularly after
the president hit social media, tweeting on Tuesday morning of
"very productive conversations" with China on the issue.