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The recently announced agreement that came from a bilateral meeting in Beijing between the United States and North Korea should be greeted with cautious optimism. It could be the start of a positive relationship between the two countries and help to resolve some of the serious issues that have plagued their relationship and caused serious tensions, not only between these two countries but also in the Asian-Pacific region. …

With the death of North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Il, which was announced yesterday, we enter a nervous new phase in Asian diplomacy. Korea watchers have known that Kim Jong Il’s health was not well for some time. His death is something we knew was coming, but there are many possible outcomes it could produce. Thus, there are some very important potential developments that should be considered by the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia and (not least) China.

The most important question regards succession of supreme power from Kim Jong Il to an heir or regent. Kim’s youngest son, Kim Jong Un, has been named the hereditary successor to his father, as his other brothers are viewed as marginal or irresponsible. (Some years ago, one brother was detained by Japanese authorities attempting to enter the country on a false third-country passport.) The important item to consider in this area is that we can assume that the North Koreans have been preparing for this moment, and that Kim Jong Un will be made out to be legitimate by the country’s internal propaganda organs.