After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 95,877 times and Romney wins 4,123 times (including the 363 ties). Obama received (on average) 303 to Romney’s 235 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 95.9% probability of winning and Romney would have a 4.1% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 29 Oct 2011 to 29 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

HA is running real slow on my computer tonight for some unfathomable reason. Takes a looooooong time to load or refresh a page. Does anyone else notice this? Maybe the host server is back east, and is running off a hamster-powered generator?

Could come down to MT and WI for control. Could be a 50-50 Senate which makes the Presidential Race even more important. Republicans have their biggest ground game ever. It’s about time. Making sure the cheating, lying Democrats don’t cheat & lie takes a lot of effort. Democrats are prolific cheaters and liars.

So when did Al Gore stop becoming a “rich patrician gentleman”? Tennessee favored him with a U.S. Senate seat in 1984 and 1990, and with the Vice-Presidency in 1992 and 1996. But not so much in 2000, when failure to carry his own state resulted in his narrow loss of the Presidency.

We haven’t seen IA poll result after the weekend. Polling all over may be affected by the storm.

So maybe just chew on this: In fact, of those major metro dailies that have announced their picks, more than one in five that had previously backed Obama are now pushing Romney, according to a tally by the American Presidency Project. Most, like the Register, had a history of endorsing Democratic presidents.

I’m sure it’s just coincidence that the 20% +/- slide from Obama to Romney mentioned above is very, very similar to the 22% flip from Obama to GOP in early voter turnout demonstrated by Gallup when comparing 2012 to 2008

# 13, 14: There are plenty of exceptions. Al Gore Sr. lost his Senate seat in 1968 due to Nixon’s “Southern Strategy” and the senior Gore’s opposition to the Vietnam War. But Al Gore Jr. was able to re-gain his father’s Senate seat, and hold on to it and the vice-presidency until he ran for President in 2000. At that point Tennessee voters had a choice between two wealthy southern candidates, both the sons of former Senators (and in Bush’s case, a former V.P. and President).

Bill Clinton doesn’t qualify as a patrician gentleman, he rose up from modest circumstances. Yet he won Tennessee in 1992 and 1996, in part because he was a Southerner running against non-Southerners (George H.W. Bush was more Connecticut than Texas). The 1992 election was more about the economy anyway.

But by 2000, with the economy on a firm footing (and budget surpluses projected indefinately), Tennessee voters felt safe to let the Republicans have another swipe at it. Boy, was that a mistake!

Chrysler Group’s production plans for the Jeep® brand have become the focus of public debate.

I feel obliged to unambiguously restate our position: Jeep production will not be moved from the United States to China.

North American production is critical to achieving our goal of selling 800,000 Jeep vehicles by 2014. In fact, U.S. production of our Jeep models has nearly tripled (it is expected to be up 185%) since 2009 in order to keep up with global demand.

We also are investing to improve and expand our entire U.S. operations, including our Jeep facilities. The numbers tell the story:

• We will invest more than $1.7 billion to develop and produce the next generation Jeep SUV, the successor of the Jeep Liberty — including $500 million directly to tool and expand our Toledo Assembly Complex and will be adding about 1,100 jobs on a second shift by 2013.

• At our Jefferson North Assembly Plant, where we build the Jeep Grand Cherokee, we have created 2,000 jobs since June 2009 and have invested more than $1.8 billion.

• In Belvidere, where we build two Jeep models, we have added two shifts since 2009 resulting in an additional 2,600 jobs.

With the increase in demand for our vehicles, especially Jeep branded vehicles, we have added more than 11,200 U.S. jobs since 2009. Plants producing Jeep branded vehicles alone have seen the number of people invested in the success of the Jeep brand grow to more than 9,300 hourly jobs from 4,700. This will increase by an additional 1,100 as the Liberty successor, which will be produced in Toledo, is introduced for global distribution in the second quarter of 2013.

Together, we are working to establish a global enterprise and previously announced our intent to return Jeep production to China, the world’s largest auto market, in order to satisfy local market demand, which would not otherwise be accessible. Chrysler Group is interested in expanding the customer base for our award-winning Jeep vehicles, which can only be done by establishing local production. This will ultimately help bolster the Jeep brand, and solidify the resilience of U.S. jobs.

Jeep is one of our truly global brands with uniquely American roots. This will never change. So much so that we committed that the iconic Wrangler nameplate, currently produced in our Toledo, Ohio plant, will never see full production outside the United States.

Jeep assembly lines will remain in operation in the United States and will constitute the backbone of the brand.

Mitt has at least four states that he can call home. He’ll lose 3 of them: NH, CA and MA. And he will easily win the state of Utah where he has yet another. I’m amazed that he has homes in all those blue states that are so oppressive and socialistic. It must be awful to live there. You’d think he’d be happier in a deep red state like Texas.

# 35: And the states where Mitt has the most ties are Michigan (where he grew up), Massachusets (where he was governor). The electorate in both states, after having the advantage of perspective of time, have soundly rejected Mitt in this presidential election. New Hampshire, where he currently seems to have his principle summer home, is also leaning against Romney.

Suffolk 7/News: Obama beats Romney by 63% to 31% (32% margin), with a 4.0% margin of error, taken 10/25-10/28.

Boston Globe: Obama beats Romney by 56% to 39% (17% margin), with a 4.1% margin of error, taken 10/24-10/28.

So if two polls, taken during the same time period, vary by a 15% margin, in spite of each poll having only a 4% margin or error, the “science” of survey polling certainly doesn’t produce consistent or reliable results.

So when a poll shows the race nationwide, or in a given state, to be tied or within a few points, it is quite possible that the actual election will show a blowout in one direction or the other.

It seems like lefty’s like greg are grasping at straws and just posting links rather than engage in discussion. It is a condition that rears it’s ugly head as the ship is going down. Get in the Conservative Life Raft greg!! It’s your ol=nly hope.

@38– There are many indicators like the one you referenced in PA. The Left cannot stand to even look at the facts. Instead, they wander aimlessly in fairy tale gone awry called ObamaLand. Denial and venom. Good luck with that.

The early voting data show that Romney is killing in that metric. Liberals are very dismissive of it because there really isn’t a comeback for it. What are they going to say? That traditionally Democrats always turn out strongly on Election Day?

Team Obama based their campaign on demonizing Romney, which didn’t work. Now they’re claiming their superior GOTV strategy will work for them. They’re ahead – barely – in one state, and yet what we know about early voting in OH also is quite favorable to the GOP vs Dems this year.

How big will the poll spreads be this weekend in OH? D +8? +9? Or do the pollsters give up and make it a realistic weighting, which gives away the Big Secret?

Your question has an obvious corollary. If Willard has Ohio, Iowa and Florida close, why is he spending money to try to get another state unless he knows that losing any one of those makes it impossible for him to get to 270?

Last week it was Wisconsin being the best hope of a flip. Today it’s Pennsylvania. It’s called tossing money after a giant problem to fix it. In other words, he knows he’s lost Ohio and he knows that Florida is probably not going to happen so he has no choice but to go after something, anything. Obama is playing the electoral equivalent of the prevent defense at the end of the game.

1. Ohio is FAR from a given even though the early-voting data compared with 2008 are looking good for the GOP. Obama DOES have a four-year head start, and he DID dump billions upon billions of US tax dollars into UAW pension funds.

2. Iowa hasn’t been polled since Romney ran the table in newspaper endorsements over the weekend.

3. Florida is a lock for Romney. But he’s got to keep it in the red column. As long as Obama spends there, so will he. A better question would be, why is Obama still spending in FL?

You are wrong in using the word impossible to describe what happens should Romney lose OH and/or IA. He can still win by taking other states, notably combinations of WI, MI, NH, PA, NV (for this I assume he needs, and has, CO). Romney probably can’t get NV. Unlikely, very difficult, etc? Yes. Impossible? No.

I don’t find Romney’s plan to dump money into PA, or anywhere else for that matter, indicative of anything except that his campaign has shitpiles of money. Putting money into PA at this point is a feint. Bob reads far too much into oh so little.

@47 If anyone is wondering, here’s how Cereal Bob spins the auto bailout into “Obama … DID dump billions upon billions of US tax dollars into UAW pension funds” when the UAW pension funds IN FACT lost money when the carmakers when broke.

Of course, Bob didn’t dream this shit up. He’s simply parroting the wingnut line as published in a WSJ article written by a couple of guys who work for rightwing propaganda mills.

Yup, you’re arguing the same thing we’ve known for Months. RomYan has to flip a blue state (last week it was going to be Wisconsin, this week it’s PA) AND run the table of tossups.

Like you said, not impossible but he’s trying to score a touchdown, recover the onside kick and get another touchdown, get another onside and a 50 yard field goal all within the last 58 seconds. Sure, it can happen.

The President can lose Ohio and still has many ways to get to 270. Willard, not really. Think every media outlet in Ohio calling, correctly, Willard a liar for the last two weeks will push him over the top?

Bob, if you honestly believe Romney will win, put your money where your mouth is! Right now, you can buy Romney futures worth $10.00 for $3.66 on Intrade. A successful guy like you should be able to afford, say, 10 shares for $36.60 — you’ll earn $100.00 if you’re right! If you’re confident Romney’s a winner, that should look like FREE MONEY to you! How about it, Bob? Do you want FREE MONEY?

54

Zotz sez: If You Could Hie To Kolob In The Twinkling Of An Eye... in between the sheets!spews:

Note, for example, that when anyone cites Gallup it’s important to note that it is THE most skewed to the Rs this cycle. Even the detestable right wing narrative pollster, Rasmussen, is better (but not by much).

Darryl’s data and analysis are the best anywhere on the web not behind a pay wall (Nate Silver).

The key words are “projected leader”, not “projected winner”. And Nate’s comment had absolutely nothing to do with how much tighter many of the states has gotten. Leader was 6-7 % points back in June in some states where it is now 1%…within the margin of error. Roger, you are fishin’ for something to hang yer hat on aren’t you? This isn’t it. Nate very carefully worded his statement didn’t he. He doesn’t refer to the margin of the lead..or even if the lead is now within the margin of error. YAWN!

These 6 reasons not to vote for Obama. ‎6 big broken promises:1) “Today I am pledging to cut the deficit we inherited in half by the end of my first term in office. Now, this will not be easy. It will require us to make difficult decisions and face challenges we’ve long neglected. But I refuse to leave our children with a debt that they cannot repay, and that means taking responsibility right now, in this administration, for getting our spending under control.” 2) “I have said repeatedly that I intend to close Guantanamo, and I will follow through on that.” 3) “These [health care] negotiations will be on C-SPAN, and so the public will be part of the conversation and will see the choices that are being made.” 4) “We are the most open and transparent administration in history.” 5) “I will turn the page on the ugly partisanship in Washington, so we can bring Democrats and Republicans together to pass an agenda that works for the American people.” 6) “And — and, you know, a year from now I think people — are gonna see that — we’re starting to make some progress. But there’s still gonna be some pain out there. If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s gonna be a one-term proposition.”

You shouldn’t pass up the sure chance to make a slightly over 50% return on your investment in just seven days. To rephrase your advice to Bob: Roger, if you honestly believe Obama will win, put your money where your mouth is! Right now, you can buy Obama futures worth $10.00 for $6.34 on Intrade. A successful guy like you should be able to afford, say, 10 shares for $63.40 — you’ll earn $100.00 if you’re right! If you’re confident Obama’s a winner, that should look like FREE MONEY to you! How about it, Roger? Do you want FREE MONEY?

For me, race is too close to call, and buying either candidate is a gamble …

Gallup is also the ‘soucre’ of the Carter was up by eight rant that Cereal liked to go to when the polls were hugely in the President’s favor. Now? Why it’s the gold standard.

Funny, Gallup says in the poll that most of the early voters they polled were in the West. O.K. Gallup found a nugget of info that the right wants to treat like the seven trumpets. So Romney is going to win the West? (guffaw, CA, OR, WA go to Willard…)

@56 “Roger, you are fishin’ for something to hang yer hat on aren’t you?”

Don’t need to. It doesn’t make a damn bit of difference whether a candidate wins a state by 25 points or 0.0000025 points. The guy who gets at least one more vote than the other guy gets the Electoral Votes. And what Silver is saying — in case you missed it — is that the Electoral Vote meter hasn’t moved at all since June. Sucks to be Mitt. Sucks to be Republican.

@60 Richard, if you truly think it’s too close to call, I’m willing to give you even odds on Romney. In other words, I’ll bet you my $5 against your $5 that Obama wins. The winner takes home $10, the loser gets $0, just like Intrade. How about it? Is that a deal?

Just wondering, in Daryl’s absence – get well, how Cereal is feeling tonight.

You had Chris Christie telling Fox News that Romney is totally useless and he certainly doesn’t have the time to do a PR stunt with his campaign bus and a load of canned goods when the state has no power. (How is cold condensed soup?)

Then you have a smattering of polls.

Colorado – President +3 Florida – tied but there’s that internal GOP memo leak about getting KILLED in early voting and GOTV effort (remember, that big Gallup news on early voting they admit is mostly due to western states seeing higher R numbers) Nevada – President +6 2 from Ohio both President +3

But you know, RomYan can lose Ohio, win Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire…there’s a path to victory somewhere.

I think it was like this, “He can still win by taking other states, notably combinations of WI, MI, NH, PA, NV (for this I assume he needs, and has, CO).”

300+ EVs to the President must be eating away at Cereal’s digestive system.

Please Donate

I appreciate feeling appreciated. Also, money.

Currency:

Amount:

Can’t Bring Yourself to Type the Word “Ass”?

Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!

Search HA

Follow Goldy

HA Commenting Policy

It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.