Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4
and the "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter,
based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2013.
The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from
private inventory investment, federal government spending, and exports that were partly offset by
positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment,
and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The downturn in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private
inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government
spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in
imports, and an acceleration in PCE.
Final sales of computers added 0.15 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP
after adding 0.11 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle output added 0.04
percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.25 percentage point from
the third-quarter change.
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FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2005)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on www.bea.gov along with the Technical Notes and Highlights
related to this release.
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The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.6 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 13.9 percent, compared with an
increase of 8.9 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2
percent. Services increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 8.4 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 1.8 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 1.1 percent; it was unchanged
in the third quarter. Equipment and software increased 12.4 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 2.6 percent in the third. Real residential fixed investment increased 15.3 percent, compared
with an increase of 13.5 percent.
Real exports of goods and services decreased 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an
increase of 1.9 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services decreased 3.2 percent, compared
with a decrease of 0.6 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 15.0 percent
in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 9.5 percent in the third. National defense decreased
22.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 12.9 percent. Nondefense increased 1.4 percent, compared
with an increase of 3.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 0.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent.
The change in real private inventories subtracted 1.27 percentage points from the fourth-quarter
change in real GDP after adding 0.73 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $20.0 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $60.3 billion in the third
and $41.4 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.1
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in the
third.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $256.2 billion (7.9 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $72.7 billion (2.2 percent) in the third. The acceleration in personal
income primarily reflected a sharp acceleration in personal dividend income, an upturn in personal
interest income, and an acceleration in wage and salary disbursements. The sharp acceleration in
personal dividend income reflected accelerated and special dividends that were paid by many companies
in the fourth quarter in anticipation of changes in individual income tax rates. The upturn in personal
interest income primarily reflected an upturn in interest rates for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
The acceleration in wages and salaries reflected the pattern of monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics
employment, hours, and earnings data for the fourth quarter, as well as a judgmental estimate of
accelerated compensation in the form of bonus payments and other irregular pay in the fourth quarter.
Personal current taxes increased $21.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of
$10.0 billion in the third.
Disposable personal income increased $235.2 billion (8.1 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $62.7 billion (2.1 percent) in the third. Real disposable personal income
increased 6.8 percent, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent.
Personal outlays increased $95.0 billion (3.3 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $88.6 billion (3.1 percent) in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $570.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $429.8 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.7
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 3.6 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to
www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
0.5 percent, or $18.0 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $15,829.0 billion. In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 5.9 percent, or $225.4 billion.
2012 GDP
Real GDP increased 2.2 percent in 2012 (that is, from the 2011 annual level to the 2012 annual
level), compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in 2011.
The increase in real GDP in 2012 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment,
and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal
government spending and from state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in
the calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP in 2012 primarily reflected a deceleration in imports, upturns in
residential fixed investment and in private inventory investment, and smaller decreases in state and local
government spending and in federal government spending that were partly offset by decelerations in
PCE, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in 2012, compared with an
increase of 2.5 percent in 2011.
Current-dollar GDP increased 4.0 percent, or $600.3 billion, in 2012, compared with an increase
of 4.0 percent, or $576.8 billion, in 2011.
During 2012 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2012) real
GDP increased 1.5 percent. Real GDP increased 2.0 percent during 2011. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent during 2012, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during
2011.
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BOX. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see
"Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
______________
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- February 28, 2013, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2012 (Second Estimate)
Release Dates in 2013
2012: IV and 2012 annual 2013: I 2013: II 2013: III
Gross Domestic Product
Advance.......... January 30 April 26 July 31 October 30
Second........... February 28 May 30 August 29 November 26
Third............ March 28 June 26 September 26 December 20
Corporate Profits
Preliminary...... ........ May 30 August 29 November 26
Revised.......... March 28 June 26 September 26 December 20
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: the "advance" estimate, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, is released near the end of the
first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
the "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.
The "latest"” estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.
Annual revisions, which generally cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried
out each summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark)
revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as
improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S.
economy.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar
and of real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one
month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the
advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to
the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points. The average revision
(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.2 percentage point, which is larger
than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates. The larger average
revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as
the incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts. The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change of real GDP 97 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating 72 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend
growth more than four-fifths of the time.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
[Annual rates]
Vintages Average Average without Standard deviation of
compared regard to sign revisions without
regard to sign
____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________
Advance to second.................... 0.2 0.6 0.4
Advance to third..................... .1 .7 .4
Second to third...................... .0 .3 .2
Advance to latest.................... .3 1.2 1.0
________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________
Advance to second.................... 0.1 0.5 0.4
Advance to third..................... .1 .6 .5
Second to third...................... .0 .2 .2
Advance to latest.................... .2 1.3 1.0
NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2009.