Malcolm Turnbull struggles with scandal, disunity and dithering

The Turnbull government has returned to Earth, not with a thud but with signs it is burning up through its own political posturingand infighting. The immediate impact of three ministerial behaviour scandals and dithering over tax reform has been pronounced. The government should be worried about the drop of 4 percentage points in its two-party-preferred support to lead Labor by just 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

Slightly less concerning is the 7-point drop in approval for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull from dizzying heights to a more realistic 62 per cent. The coalition's support in the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll also remains higher than at any time under former leader Tony Abbott.

The question is whether that's the extent of the damage or whether the electorate is starting to see the Turnbull administration as yet another dysfunctional regime that promises big and delivers small. How the electorate will handle Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister – and the policy tensions that creates with the Prime Minister – remains a lingering concern with an election at most eight months away.

Labor, by contrast, is showing courage in presenting tax policies so early in the election cycle. The Herald has long supported reductions in superannuation tax breaks for the wealthy as well as a winding back of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount. Labor's approaches are exactly what the government should be pursuing and may yet do, notwithstanding the rhetoric.

While ministers say the government won't dribble out tax reforms, it is doing worse. It has not had a national debate on the goods and services tax. It ruled out using the proceeds for schools and health, thereby ensuring voter opposition. The approach has been marked by selective leaks to see the public reaction.

The public wants decisions and options. The coalition needs to present a package soon, or face the backlash.

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Hopes are rising that the government will get on with business now that the cabinet has been reshuffled following what was in effect the sacking of Stuart Robert and the two high-profile resignations of Nationals leader Warren Truss and Trade Minister Andrew Robb. The new ministry contains more women and more young talent. They have precious little time to become experts at their new briefs.

While Mr Turnbull's insistence of higher standards of ministerial behaviour was welcome, he needs to learn that voters will not tolerate irresolution. His claims about the reshuffle that "this is transition, this is change, this is renewal" don't cut it. The Prime Minister took far too long to stand supporter Mal Brough aside as minister of state over the Slipper affair last year.

Granted, that was complicated by factional clashes between Mr Robert's Canberra flatmate, the Treasurer Scott Morrison, and Mr Turnbull's allies. The tension only served to undermine public trust in the leadership team. Without a united partnership between Mr Turnbull and his Treasurer, the government cannot hope to present a plausible economic message. "Innovation" and "the ideas boom" are starting to look like cheap slogans.

The government's best weapon remains Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. For all his strength on tax and Indigenous affairs last week, he remains deeply unpopular. The coalition peppers him with reminders of the trade union royal commission at every opportunity. With just 30 per cent approval in the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, the best Mr Shorten could expect would be to hope the government keeps self-harming in the run-up to the election due by October.

The potential for an early election, while opposed by 74 per cent of voters in the poll, has risen sharply now that the government is near a deal with the Greens and Independent Nick Xenophon on Senate voting reform. The Herald has long argued for such changes, to ensure voters know for whom they are voting and to limit the power of preference whisperers who game the system to help micro-parties get elected on minuscule primary votes.

The downside of reform legislated in the next few months, of course, is that the Coalition could gain control of both Houses of Parliament in any double dissolution election. That's a concerning prospect, given Mr Turnbull is struggling to control the far right in his party. He has backed off socially progressive causes such as same sex marriage and the republic. He is also defending harsh policies on children in detention. Most of all, he has yet to deliver clear budget repair and economic programs, let alone present as the leader of a stable, trustworthy government.