Posts Tagged ‘Price of Silver’

We estimate that silver mine supply peaked in 2015 and will trend lower in the foreseeable future. Due to the huge increase in Global Silver ETF demand & a large Exchange Inventory build, the silver market will suffer a forecasted 185 Moz annual deficit in 2016. Declining total supply is expected to be a key driver of annual deficits, thereby leading to higher silver prices going forward.

Silver is a great place to make money… It will often outperform gold. You can use the gold-to-silver ratio to monitor the relationship between the two. The ratio is trending upward again right now. That’s good news for silver investors. It means silver is getting cheaper relative to gold. If the ratio continues to climb toward 80 again, that would be a solid place to buy.

The financial disaster taking place at the US costs one heck of a lot of gold and silver. In 2015, the US Federal Government paid $402 billion just to service the interest on its debt. The total value of global gold production in 2015 was $122 billion while that of silver was $14 billion. So the US could purchase 3 times the global gold and silver production in 2015, just by the interest on its debt.

With the price of silver up nearly 40% year-to-date, investors are wondering whether it can continue. Experts say it may have more room to run, particularly as global interest rates continue to stay negative. It wouldn’t be inconceivable to see a silver supply shortage if there was heightened demand, & in that case, a silver to gold ratio of 20 to 1 (or lesser) is not an impossibility.

A continuation of the defensive dollar tone over the past 24 hours, coupled with downward pressure on bond yields, has continued to provide underlying support to silver and gold prices. Analysts warn that continued upside for gold futures may be limited now that a Dec rate hike is firmly in play. According to Fed Fund futures, traders are pricing in a nearly 60% chance of liftoff by year-end.

The price of silver has emerged as the perfect compensation for those whom the market inflicted losses last year. The price of silver appears set for a correction, which suggests the overbuying activity that took place in June could witness several cash outs in the coming weeks. But the overall direction of commodity prices suggests that this could just be a breather before another rally kicks off.

In addition to holding up well in the face of bearish factors, the price of silver is set to get a boost from several bullish factors that have not yet been fully priced in by the markets. Despite the recent strong dollar and tough talk from the Fed, the U.S. economy cannot afford a strong dollar. The dollar will again naturally weaken and the dollar price of silver will get a boost.

Why are junk bonds and equities not dropping commensurately? It’s crystal clear that if rates are truly moving up, then all assets will be repriced lower. So for the moment, the prices of the metals— silver more than gold—are driven by this Narrative.It would be strange to see the price of silver take off like a rocket while the price of gold languishes, moribund.

The big banks led by JPMorgan are trying to get out of their big paper short position & are not having much luck. They don’t want the price to go up until they have driven the price of silver down to the point the technical-fund holders sell to them & as they buy from these tech funds their short position is reduced. And the best part is that they want much higher silver prices one of these days.

Silver prices started a rapid spike higher in late June, taking it to $20.57 a troy ounce in July. At the same time, sales of silver American Eagles took a tumble. The price of silver bullion has been working its way down in recent days. Lower silver prices are attractive to long-term silver investors. Present silver prices might seem to be a last-chance kind of bargain.

Silver could be setting up for another near-term slip prior to resuming its long-term bullish trend as this week progresses. In the absence of any significant shortcomings in the US data, silver prices should have some substantial downside potential in the coming weeks. The long-term bias remains bullish so don’t expect to see the metal stray far below the 17.849 mark.

Seasonality plays a key role at this time of year, which has historically been the best time to buy gold and silver. Now could be a good time to look for buying opportunities on dips. Normally, I would also short silver for technical reasons, but because we are at a very strong time of year for the silver price, my stance is to be on sidelines for traders but buyers of physical silver to keep accumulating.

When silver was money and held at a ratio of about 16 to 1 with gold, the inflation adjusted price of silver was about $30 an ounce. The mother of all silver bulls continues to be 1980 as the price of silver spiked to about $118 on a closing basis on our inflation adjusted chart. That continues to be the benchmark for silver as we head into the new bull market in silver.

Historically, August has been a rough month for stock investors. The fall in the dollar will reflect in the rise of silver. I believe that silver is on the cusp of a rally. The silver bulls have seen a stupendous run from the lows of around $13.73 during the start of the year to the highs of $21.2 in early July 2016. However, I believe that the bull run in silver will continue after a small consolidation.

The bear market phase in silver from 2011 has definitely ended. However, it has risen quite sharply in recent months to arrive at a zone of significant resistance, so it is quite normal for it to consolidate or react back here, before later breaking above this resistance and continuing higher. A reasonable objective for a correction is the support level seen at $18.

“It’s very difficult to be bearish on silver and gold — especially silver, which has drawn particular interest from investors this year. With so much pricing momentum, and so many geopolitical and market factors blowing in its sails, there’s no reason to think silver won’t continue to post gains through the end of the year.” Events close-by could easily push the price of silver above $30.

The silver price has gone up more than 43% year-to-date, “leap-frogging ahead of gold post-Brexit.” Experts believe the silver price will reach between $25 & $32 by year-end. Though optimism is prevalent, investors can expect some volatility. As silver is both “currency & commodity,” used in a variety of industrial & other uses, its value is “more highly correlated with stocks” than that of gold.

I think, right now, silver is in this sweet spot and I think this trend can continue. The growth in solar power is helping drive the demand for silver upward & could potentially gobble up to as much as 25% of the global silver market. Investor demand for silver is expected to continue breaking records through the rest of the year. Shrinking supply will also likely put upward pressure on silver prices.

While investors have primarily focused on gold’s bull run, silver has quietly outperformed the yellow metal. Between Jan. 1 and July 11, the price of silver increased 44.7%, while the price of gold increased 27.7%. The sensitivity of industrial demand to economic factors can make silver more volatile than gold, but recent surge in silver appears to be primarily driven by investors seeking safe haven.

As we have now punctured an important silver trend line, what happens next could be very interesting. If silver closes above $20.35, the 50 (MA) trend line at a significant margin, we could see a lot more hedge funds and large traders jump into the silver market bandwagon. Bullion banks who hold record commercial silver short contracts, will likely defend the $20.35 price at all costs.