Sunday, May 26, 2013

Bob Dylan wrote those words in 1964, and they were interpreted as the
conflict between what was once accepted as a youth and what was now subject to
doubts having grown older.The protest
movement in the mid-1960’s and a hockey team in the twenty-teens do not have a
lot in common, but Nicklas Backstrom is at that point in his career when we
might ask, “was the certainty we had a few years ago that he would be an elite
center misplaced?”

Not that Backstrom had a bad season.He tied with Jonathan Toews among centers for seventh place in total
points, he was one assist behind Sidney Crosby for second in the league among
centers, and only two centers – teammate Mike Ribeiro and San Jose’s Joe
Thornton – had more power play points than the 18 he recorded.

Still, something seemed “off” about Backxtrom’s game this season.Maybe it was the five even-strength goals he
recorded.Maybe it was that he was
3-22-25, plus-7 in 18 games against the Southeast Division, but only 5-18-23,
plus-1 in 30 games outside the “Southleast.”Maybe it was his going 1-2-3, minus-2 in the first round playoff series against
the Rangers, continuing a disturbing trend… 3-10-13, even, in his last 29
playoff games after going 12-18-30, plus-13 in his first 28 career playoff
games.

But back to the regular season.There was a curious – and unexpected – Backstrom effect at 5-on-5.Backstrom spent more time skating with Alex
Ovechkin and Marcus Johansson at 5-on-5 than he did with any other Capital
forwards.When they were on ice together
at 5-on-5, Ovechkin’s GF20 (goals scored by team per 20 minutes of ice time, as
defined at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) was 1.002.When apart, that value was 1.009.For Johansson, the values were 1.11 when skating with Backstrom, 1.11
when they were apart.

The big difference here came on the defensive side of the ledger.Ovechkin’s GA20 at 5-on-5 (goals scored
against per 20 minutes of ice time) was 0.739 with Backstrom, 1.009 when
separated from Backstrom.For Johansson,
the numbers were 0.863 with Backstrom and 1.269 when separated.

Another odd part about Backstrom’s season was how it was, in terms of
his high end numbers, almost a reproduction of his 2011-2012 season.He played in 42 games last season (40 games
were missed due to a concussion), 48 games this season.He had 44 points last season, 48 this
season.Three power play goals last
season, three power play goals this season.He had 16 power play assists last season, 15 this season.

What we saw this year, though, was a continuing trend of fewer shots on
goal.In 2009-2010, qwhen Backstrom set
a career high with 33 goals, he averaged 2.71 shots per game.That was followed up by 2.62 in 2010-2011,
2.26 in 2011-2012, and then 1.71 this season.Part of that might have been a product of his role in an Adam Oates
power play scheme.He recorded only 13
power play shots on goal all season (0.27 per game).Then again, it might not be a function of the
new power play.Backstrom had only 16 power
play shots on goal in 42 games in 2011-2012 (0.38 per game).The change in Backstrom’s shooting has come
more at 5-on-5 where he averaged 1.29 shots per game this season versus 1.55
shots per game last season, and both might be compared to the 2.00 shots per
game at 5-on-5 that he averaged in his 33-goal season in 2009-2010.

Odd Backstrom Stat… “Tuesday’s child is full of grace.”For Backstrom, Tuesday certainly graced his
statistics.He was 2-17-19, plus-7 on
games played on Tuesdays, 6-23-29, plus-1 on the other six days of the week
combined.

Game to Remember… April 2nd vs. Carolina.The Caps went into their contest against
Carolina on April 2nd tied with the Hurricanes for tenth place in
the Eastern Conference, three points out of the top-eight and four behind then-division
leading Winnipeg.Carolina got the jump
on the visitors with two goals less than three minutes apart in the first
period.Then Backstrom went to work. He had the primary assist on four straight
goals for the Caps in the space of 11:45, allowing Washington to overtake
Carolina, 4-3, barely 11 minutes into the second period.The Caps added a shorthanded goal with 45
seconds left to seal the 5-3 win.For
Backstrom it was quite a night.It was
his first four-point game since February 4, 2001 (a 6-5 Caps win over the New
York Rangers), and his 12th career four-point or better game.It was the third game in what would be a nine-game
points streak for Backstrom (1-14-15).

Game to Forget… April 18th vs. Ottawa.Getting his lowest ice time of the season (15:41),
Backstrom was on ice for each of the Senators’ first two goals, then was not on
the ice when the Caps, trying to get the equalizer in a 2-1 game, allowed
Ottawa an empty net goal with 1:27 left in a 3-1 Washington loss.Backstrom skated only five shifts in the
third period of that game before going out after being hit in the right arm by
a Mike Green slap shot.

Post Season… Backstrom had one even-strength point in the first round
series against the Rangers, the first goal of the game in what would be a 4-3
Rangers win in Game 3.Other than that
he was scarcely heard from despite getting more ice time among forwards than
any Capital except Alex Ovechkin.It was
surprising in that over his last 21 regular season games he was 5-21-26,
plus-10.By the time the series was
over, Backstrom found himself 3-for-64 shooting over his last 29 playoff games
(4.7 percent) and, perhaps more distressingly, only ten assists in those 29
games, only five of them at even strength.

In the end…

Alex Ovechkin might be what gives the drink its kick, but
Backstrom is the straw that stirs it.And in terms of his post-season contributions, it has been a somewhat
watered down cocktail in the last three years.His position affords him more opportunities to contribute (scoring on
his own, distributing the puck to more than just Alex Ovechkin), but by the
same token, if he does not cash in on those opportunities the Caps are not
likely to be successful.In the last 14
post season games in which Backstrom did not register a point, the Caps are
3-11 dating back to the four-game sweep at the hands of Tampa Bay in 2011.

As much as is the case with Ovechkin, Backstrom is at the point in his
career where he will be evaluated on his post-season performance more than what
he accomplishes in the regular season.The dropoff from his early career success in the post season (12-18-30
in his first 28 games covering three post-season appearances) is mystifying.And until that mystery is solved, the
disappointment that was Washington’s in the post-season in 2013 is not likely to
change.

WE INTERRUPT OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING

The Washington Capitals enter the 2016-2017 as one of 12 franchises in the NHL never to win a Stanley Cup. Of that group, only the St. Louis Blues (48 seasons), Buffalo Sabres (45 seasons), and Vancouver Canucks (45 seasons) have gone longer never having won a Cup than the Capitals (41 seasons). Six teams came into the league after the Capitals entered the league in 1974-1975 and have won Stanley Cups: Colorado Rockies/New Jersey Devils (1976-1977), Edmonton Oilers (1979-1980), Quebec Nordiques/Colorado Avalanche (1979-1980), Hartford Whalers/Carolina Hurricanes (1979-1980), Tampa Bay Lightning (1992-1993), and the Anaheim Ducks (1993-1994).

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