Friday, April 9, 2010

Taking your suggestions...

Going to let you all pick at least one of the places we poll next week, maybe both. We'll take your suggestions over the weekend and put it to a vote on Monday.

We'll consider 2010 Senate and Gubernatorial races and House races as well, although if we're going to poll a House race it really needs to be one of national interest. Stupak would have been a good choice until he retired.

We're not going to poll something we did in the last couple months again and we're not going to poll something there are a million surveys out there on...beyond that fire away!

76 comments:

As a resident of the Grand Canyon State, I'd like to see two from here, both of which have garnered national attention: McCain/Hayworth in the Senate GOP primary and the CD8 race to unseat Giffords.

McCain and Hayworth needs no explanation, but the CD8 race is also very interesting. Jonathan Paton just reported $500K for Q1, but is a late-comer to the race against Jesse Kelly, whose been in for more than a year. The winner of that gets to face Giffords, who has thus far held that GOP district, but not under these political tradewinds.

The OK-5 GOP primary. There are six different candidates, including three strong ones (Calvey, Thompson and Lankford). The latter, James Lankford, made waves for his huge online following (well over 10,000 Facebook fans back several months, ago, more than twice as much as the nearest Oklahoma politician - and that number has grown).

PA-12 is very unique, voted for Kerry and McCain but otherwise on the local level and party registration it is a Dem district, but I'm (not only me) more interested in HI-1 where it seems that Dems might be quite nervous of a Republican pickup with 2 Dems fighting it out hard, it's not so overwhelmingly Dem (put aside '08 and Obama home state effect), Bush won 47% there in '04

I'd suggest New Hampshire: Rasmussen's done all the polling there within the couple of months so it can't hurt to have a second set of eyes. The GOP Senate Primary is pretty under-polled so it will be good to check the conventional wisdom that Ayotte may have a tough time.

It's very strange that there's a ton of polling on the Indiana, Washington, and Arkansas general elections but none on the Republican primaries. We're left to assume Stutzman has no chance. Are Hostetler and Coats neck and neck?

The Arkansas primary has five candidates Rasmussen says poll better than Lincoln but we have no idea which candidate and which poll to pay most attention to.

Likewise Washington is loaded with candidates if Rossi doesn't run. No one is polling that well against Murray yet, but that may change.

Could Bob Bennett really lose a primary? What about a hypothetical Steele-Mikulski match-up in Maryland?

Arkansas Primary. There has been 0 polls of the DEM Primary that Halter has a real chance to win. (R2K doesn't count, they are a Democratic pollster) And is insurgent Gilbert Baker topping out over Congressman Boozman in the Republican Primary? There's been no poll on that race, and it would show how both the right wing base (Baker) and the left wing base (Halter) candidates are doing.

Indiana. Competitive Republican primary coming up, how is Ellsworth doing in the general election?

H1-01: I wouldn't worry as much about the congressional race in Florida. But this one definitely needs polling.

Indiana would be a good choice. There's a competitive GOP Senate primary, a competitive general Senate election, and three competitive House races: IN-02, IN-08, and IN-09. It might also be interesting to see how Mitch Daniels' approval ratings are holding up, and how Hoosiers might view a potential Presidential run by Daniels.

Another suggestion would be LA-02. Most people are assuming that Rep. Cao is toast, but I haven't seen any polling of the district to back that up yet.

Hawaii House would be interesting. FL-19 special if you can publish it by Monday or Tuesday.

What about the Ohio house races with Driehouse and Kaptur? Actually a lot of good choices in Ohio. Maybe you can do a state-wide poll and then your sample will probably include a lot of different house districts.

Oh, and let me also chime in with STRONG STRONG interest in some IN-SEN primary polling on the GOP side. It seems that everyone has just assumed Coats is a shoo-in for the nomination. But given that Hostettler is running even or slightly better than him in the general election match-up, I wonder if he's not doing better with the base than most suspect.

Hawaii special has sparked a lot of national attention this week for the Case-Hannbussa fight and the pendidng DCCC endorsement of Case. Could see how accurate DCCC poll showing 32-32-27, Case-Djou-HAnnabusa is. And since Hawaii is a small state, you could also test the whole state and poll the Gov/Sen races.

LA-Sen, LA-02 & LA-03 See if Stormy's switch affects Vitter at all or if Melancon's ethics charges are affecting vitter. See if Cao is as vulnerable as everyone says. Downer announced in LA-03. How big is the gap there? Big gap in LA-03 tells us what's happening in the South.

AR-Sen (Dem & Rep primaries & Generals), AR-01, AR-02What's up with Halter Lincoln? What's going on with Repubs? Which Repub and Dem strongest in general? Also, what going on in AR-01 and AR-02?

HI-01 - what's going on there in that special?

MO-Sen and MO-04What's going on with Missouri Senate and Skelton?

TN-08 - What's going on there?

WV-01, WV-02 - what's going on there?

And what about Kentucky Senate? What about KY Democrats in Congress, Chandler and Yarmuth??

Tom, You have an opportunity for big media attention with a poll on IN Sen GOP Primary because there isn't yet any poll there, a poll on the general election won't hurt either. also PA-12 and HI-1 are needed. Thanks

well.. since my suggestions of the 4th republican to poll of Newt or Guiliani or Perry were added to the poll... and both Newt and Perry ran neck and neck... let me chime in again on this...

Some states where there hasn't been a ton of polling.

Florida, the FL8 or FL24 .. grayson and kosmas seats

NH gets alot of polling from the local media, college polls and rass.. but a look at the GOP sentate primary, and generaland the Gov race seems to be tightening also... Gov Lynch in NH 2 yrs ago was one of the most popular governors and my how things have shifted.. will he have a tough time now

Any of the Upstate NY house seats, that were wiped clean from the GOP in 2006 and 2008 would be interesting.

hard to pick one house seat that has national interest.

If you were looking at a place doesn't have much polling, MI could be a place to go also... GOP and Dem Primaries for GOV

Or Minnesota... tho i think you will find in MN candidates that just not well known yet.

I think whatever you pick, picking a seat where a dem holds that should be at least lean dem, to see how well they are doing against an at least moderately funded challenger far in telling how other dems might bein trouble.

Maybe Nye or Connolly in VA could be good choices to poll. Obama did win those districts but with no higher ups on the ballot how does it effect them when they are the only draw on the ballot

Maryland is wildly under-polled. I'm really curious on the O'Malley-Erlich rematch, since a conservative friend from the B'more area says O'Malley will get crushed, but I've seen nothing suggesting that's true. Or false, for that matter.

I love how people are pretending Murray can't lose in Washington, when her numbers are even worse than Martha Coakley's (two weeks before the MA election). The delusional wishful thinking of the left is so amusing.

Hello! Indiana Senate! We have yet to see a primary poll and general election numbers are all over the board. I trust PPP much more than R2K or Rasmussen, and want to see how the race really is, and see who the Republican nominee will likely be. Also if you have time I wouldn’t mind seeing some Hawaii special polling. However my final vote is definitely Indiana, Hawaii is just a side note.

I haven't seen any public polling of the MO-4. Ike's probably a bit of a firewall. If he's actually in trouble, then Dem's might be in a worse situation than we think, if he's not, the idea that Dems are starting to rebound might be real.

New Hampshire. Competitive Senate race, competitive GOP Senate primary, a potentially competitive governor's race that could be this cycle's sleeper, and two competitive House races. You could do small-sample polling of the House races like you did with NM a few months back. The GOP presidential primary poll would be really interesting here, since NH is such an important primary state. Finally, NH is a good place to poll national issues like the healthcare bill since it votes so closely to the nation as a whole.

Just wanted to voice support for doing a Massachusetts governor's race poll that'll include all the declared candidates, which would be a lot better than Rasmussen's obvious bias against third party candidates!

Also, Arkansas is interesting because you have a bit more of a credible Green running in that state where Greens have been running well in recent years, electing a state legislator last election. In addition, it has a prominent independent running. And it has a major primary in the Lincoln-Halter matchup. Finally, it has the open GOP contest with Boozman leading.

I am also interested in Indiana Senate simply on the Republican side. I want to see where support is leaning. There are so many variables in that primary it is almost anybody's game between the biggest three.

Everyone is talking about the fact that its an anti-incumbent year and how the Tea Party might benefit. But they are ignoring the established anti-incumbent party, the Green Party. The pollsters won't even put Jill Stein, the green gubernatorial candidate in Massachusetts, into their poll questions. Why the news blackout? Is it only right wingers that can be mentioned?