Thursday, April 29, 2010

Historically, New York City has been the breeding ground for point guard talent. Bob Cousy, Lenny Wilkens, Larry Brown, Tiny Archibald, Earl the Pearl (Philly boy), Mark Jackson, Kenny Anderson, Kenny Smith, Stephon Marbury, Rod Strickland –just some of the names who made it. There’s Rafer “Skip to My Lou” Alston, Jamaal Tinsley and Sebastian Telfair. Even those who didn’t make the league or have extended careers – God Shammgod, Khalid Reeves, Omar Cook, Ed Cota, Kenny Satterfield – were the stuff of legends … and still are.

But the days of NYC dominance aren’t as strong as they once were. And recently, a new contender has entered the fold: Chester, Pennsylvania. Chester is a southwestern suburb of Philadelphia, less than 20 miles from the City of Brotherly Love. With a population of less than 40,000, this Delaware County hotbed is a segregated city known for its notoriously rough neighborhoods on one side of the bridge and its more affluent side, home of Widener University, on the other. Development is underway, with a casino already in town and a soccer stadium under construction for the new Philadelphia MLS team, the Philadelphia Union.

One thing Chester has not been known for over the years is its professional athletes. That’s all changing now, thanks to two point guards making headlines as we speak, right in the middle of the NBA playoffs. Despite a lack of professional players, Chester High School has a rich history as a high school basketball power in the state of Pennsylvania. But that hasn’t necessarily led to any high-profile players on the grandest stage … until now.

The word has already leaked that Tyreke Evans, Chester born and raised (though he went to high school at American Christian in nearby Aston), will be named the NBA Rookie of the Year following a remarkable rookie season. Evans joined the exclusive company of Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan and LeBron James as the only rookies to ever average at least 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists. After just one season at Memphis, the Chester product found himself as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2009 draft, heading west to Sacramento. There were questions about his ability to run the point, his need to have the ball in his hands, the fact that he really didn’t have a position or the most reliable shot. But that didn’t matter, Tyreke knew he would succeed, knew he would overcome the critics. After all, he’s had to deal with much, much more.

In 2007, he was driving as his younger cousin fired shots and killed a man. Tyreke was cleared of any wrongdoing and by all accounts had no idea his cousin had a gun or was going to shoot anybody. But it was a terrible ordeal he had to live with, raising red flags and questions about his character. Didn’t matter, Tyreke overcame it. His older brothers, who labeled themselves Team Tyreke, wouldn’t let anyone involved in the crime-riddled world of Chester near their baby brother. Pooh was the enforcer, Tyreke’s elder brother who had taken on and defeated Kobe Bryant’s Lower Merion team as a member of Chester High. It worked. Evans stayed out of trouble, killed it on the court, signed with Memphis, flourished under John Calipari, who moved him to point guard, and was all set for his dream of the NBA.

All he did there was average 20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.5 steals a game, all while shooting 45.8 percent from the floor and 74.8 percent from the line. From day one, he got to any spot on the floor he wanted to, even against the best of the best, the NBA’s finest. Night in and night out, he made a terrible Sacramento team – a team that was without its best player, Kevin Martin, to start the season, who was then shipped off – must-see TV. He mesmerized with his talents, becoming the alpha dog on a young team with a lot of promise. Most importantly, Evans proved once and for all he could run the point in the NBA, and run it well. He scored, he passed, he rebounded, he did it all. He truly was the floor leader for the Kings. The team struggled, sure, but their future is in good hands. Hands and skills that were crafted on the hard streets and harder courts of Chester, Pennsylvania.

Evans is the latest point guard from Chester to make it big, but he was not the first. No, that distinction goes to Jameer Nelson, the short, stout point guard for the Orlando Magic. Around these parts, Jameer’s greatness was pre-ordained early on. I remember the first time I saw my uncle, a St. Joe’s grad and Philadelphia area high school basketball connoisseur, after they landed Nelson. He told me Nelson was one of the best high school basketball players he had ever seen play, a true point guard who could dominate a game without even taking a shot (good news, Nova fans, he says the same thing about Maalik Wayns). Hounding, relentless defense, complete command of the offense, incredible passing skills … and oh yeah, he could score in bunches too if you needed it.

Nelson stepped foot on the St. Joe’s campus and started from day one. As a freshman, he was overshadowed by Simon Gratz grad Marvin O’Connor, then a junior and a scoring phenom at St. Joe’s who scored 18 points in the final 57.5 seconds in a 91-90 loss to Big Five foe La Salle, nearly pulling off an impossible comeback singlehandedly in less than a minute. He finished that game with 37 points. But the following season, Nelson took the lead for good. O’Connor struggled with an ankle injury and slowed down, while Nelson took off, took command, and started to become one of the best point guards in the nation no one knew about.

But his anonymity wouldn’t last. As a senior, he led St. Joe’s to an undefeated regular season record with Delonte West at his side. The Hawks earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and Jameer opened everyone’s eyes. So much so, in fact, that he was named the National Player of the Year, bringing home the Naismith. Meer-meer dominated in his final season, putting St. Joe’s back on the map, and the NBA came calling. He was selected 20th overall in the 2004 draft by Denver, then traded to Orlando.

I had high hopes for Nelson. The Chester High product was incredible in high school, incredible in college, why wouldn’t he be incredible in the pros? Well, things didn’t quite work out that way early on, as Jameer battled inconsistency. Until last year, when he became an all-star, dedicating himself and his game to his father, who drowned falling off a boat back home. Jameer was the engine that made Orlando run before his severe shoulder injury, putting up numbers – 16.7 points, 5.4 assists, 1.2 steals a game on 50.3 percent from the field, 45.3 from three and 88.7 from the line – that were flat awesome. He became the leader, if he wasn’t already, talking, chirping, executing. He invited (and still does) his teammates to spend time with him back in Philadelphia and Chester over the summer, bonding with teammates and creating chemistry. The Magic became his team every bit as much as Dwight Howard’s. Howard was the superstar, but Nelson was the leader.

But when Nelson rushed back to play in the finals last season, the results weren’t good. The Magic got out of sync, and Nelson clearly wasn’t back to 100 percent. And that seemed to carry over this season, as Jameer saw his numbers slip. He didn’t go back to the inconsistency of his early years, but he wasn’t quite the same Jameer from a season ago.

Then the playoffs happened. Right out of the gate, game 1, with Dwight Howard struggling by every conceivable measure, getting in foul trouble and posting just 5 measly points, Jameer took the reigns once again. He dropped 32 points, added 6 assists and a steal. He shot 10-18 from the field, 4-8 from beyond, got to the line 8 times and hit all 8 free throws. He owned the game, and the Magic took a 1-0 lead. It was a statement by Jameer, a statement that he was back, he was ready, and he wasn’t playing around. Jameer proceeded to completely abuse Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin. And I mean abuse them. In game 2, he deferred to his teammates, distributing the shots around to Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis and Howard, getting 13 and 5 with 3 steals.

But when Howard faced foul trouble again in game 3, Vince and Lewis cooled and the Magic needed someone to take the lead, Jameer answered the call, putting up another 32-point performance, this time on 12-21 from the field, 5-9 from three, 3-3 from the line, adding 4 boards, 3 assists and 4 steals. He added 18 more in the clincher, finishing as a +14 on the night. In the four-game sweep, he was the best player on the court. Nelson averaged 23.8 points, 4.5 assists and 2.5 steals. He shot 48.4 percent from the field, 42.9 from three and 88.5 percent from the line. And his confidence was back. He was out there chirping with anyone who would listen, making decisions without hesitating, just out there playing and controlling the game, reminding everyone just how good he can be, just how tough he is.

That’s a testament to Jameer, to his family, to his work ethic, no doubt. It’s also a testament to his hometown, to Chester, an area that turns young boys into men if they’re tough enough to survive. A city that’s suddenly a hotbed for point guards. Make room, NYC, Chester is in the building.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

I work right next to a Dunkin Donuts. Well, not right next to one, because my office is on the top floor, but connected to my building is a Dunkin Donuts — though you have to go outside to get there.

I see this Dunkin Donuts every day. I go in there quite often, usually for coffee and sometimes for a breakfast sandwich or bagel. Bu I rarely ever go in there and, you know, buy a donut. Which is crazy. Who doesn't love donuts? No one, that's who. So finally, today, I put my foot down and said, "Hey, asshole, get some freakin donuts today." And I did. And they were delicious. I think I'd make a good cop.

The Phils have now lost three in a row with last night's 6-2 loss, and sit a half game behind — GASP! — the New York Mets. No cause for concern just yet, as this is a 162-game season and the Phils have the most talent in the division, however, this pitching is scary. Sure, things will settle down in the rotation once J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton return and they ship Kyle Kendrick off to Japan for real this time, but the bullpen looks shaky (I'm looking at you, Danys Baez), Cole still isn't right and Jamie Moyer is nearly 50 years old. I think the Phils may have to make more pitching moves this year than they have the past couple of seasons. Not bigger ones, mind you, because I don't see them getting a Cliff Lee or anything like that, but more moves along the lines of adding guys like Scott Eyre for that pen. And Pedro. I fully expect this team to sign Pedro after the all-star break. Should be interesting. As for the Mets, enjoy it while it lasts. You'll be back at the bottom in no time.

Word from the Flyers is Laperriere has a brain contusion and mild concussion. With the team already losing Jeff Carter and Simon Gagne, this may be just too much to overcome. In fact, I'm going to have to agree with Matt P. and say Laperriere's loss is an even bigger one than Carter's or Gagne's. That may sound strange, especially given Carter was this team's leading goal-scorer and both he and Gagne are top-line forwards who play both ways, in all situations. But as Matt points out, Ian is vital on the penalty kill, and he and Blair Betts have been by far the best penalty killing duo I've seen all season, for any team. Their play, both even strength and especially on the PK, was as big a reason as any that the Flyers beat the Devils.

No matter if they face the Caps or Bruins next round, the chances for victory just got that much slimmer. The Flyers are down a full line's worth of players, and more importantly for a team that takes a lot of penalties, down three of their penalty killers. No one expected much from this team in the playoffs, but after all that has transpired around them, with the Flyers themselves looking really good, the hopes were steadily beginning to climb. This brings us all back down a peg. They'll need Brian Boucher to continue playing out of his mind to even begin to think they can overcome these losses. Hopefully he will. Another tough break. Wish Ian the best, and man, you can't not respect that guy. What a warrior. He will be missed more than anyone could have possibly imagined back in September.

- Of the four white draft choices, we already know the Motiejunas and Bargnani comparison. The others?

- Cole Aldrich is compared with Joel Przybilla, who happens to be white.

- Gordon Hayward is compared with Mike Miller, who also happens to be white.

- Luke Babbitt is compared with Adam Morrison, who not only happens to be white, but also happens to be a legendary draft bust. Seriously, why would you compare him to Adam Morrison? Is there no other white guy? Why not suggest that the team should just pass on their pick, Vikings-style?

- Of the 26 black draft choices, all of their comparators happened to be black with the exception of one: Greg Monroe is compared with Brad Miller. Miller, you officially have street credibility.

Smooth, HoopsHype. Smooth.

-Proof that Shaquille O'Neal was skinny and unstoppable once upon a time.

Unfortunately, I didn't hear what he said to Jaws that required the broadcasted apology, but I found it hilarious. Hilarious for a couple of reasons: One, Matt Millen is so retarded that he can't even speak without screwing things up; and two, why the hell would they talk to Matt Millen about the NFL draft and draft picks? He is, quite possibly (definitely), the worst general manager and drafter in the history of the NFL. Maybe in the history of sports. His opinions hold absolutely no credibility. None whatsoever. You might as well just have an ape there throwing feces on everyone. You'd get the same value out of that.

I will say this though: Matt Millen is a very articulate and very cool guy. I met him at Penn State. Being an alum, he came back to school and spoke to a bunch of journalism students, myself included, and never dodged a single question or sugar-coated an answer — and this was at the time he and the Lions were catching heat for hiring Steve Mariucci without going through the proper Rooney rule process. Great guy who was a great football player: All-American at Penn State, multiple-time Super Bowl winning linebacker in the NFL with San Francisco and Oakland. And he was even a really good announcer before he became the worst GM of all time. But he was an awful GM and awful talent evaluator. He should be nowhere near the NFL draft.

I don't have a problem with him calling games. He knows how to analyze the game and knows what's going on. He just can't evaluate talent. I watched him, after the apology, call the Penn State Blue-White game with Kirk Herbstreit during the afternoon. He did a fine job. But please, no draft.

On a side note, the Penn State quarterbacks looked like shit in a scrimmage with no blitzes. Not good. And Joe Pa is still the man. He dropped a couple of great nuggets when he was in the booth during the second quarter. One of them was, in reference to Bobby Bowden's forced resignation, Joe said, "I told Bobby, you gotta stay one more year. Bobby said, 'Joe, we got these trustees.' I used to go out and do fundraising for the school and board members, and I always used tell them: I want your money but I don't want your two cents." Classic. He also discussed the scheduling against Alabama, talking about how it was supposed to be earlier, but Bama's AD called Joe and asked if they could push it back because Alabama wasn't so good at the time. Joe said, "Had I known they were going to be this good, National Champions, I would have to told him to go find another sucker!" Even at 83 years old, the guy still has it. And he was ripping on Millen mercilessly. It was great. I hope Joe Paterno lives forever.

Brown is a defensive mastermind. His Bobcats finished first in defensive efficiency this season. Every team Brown has taken over since the late 1990s -- with the exception of the Knicks -- has improved on defense in his first season. The Bobcats were among the league's worst defenses under Sam Vincent in 2007-08, but improved to No. 7 in Brown's first season despite personnel changes which were limited to a Boris Diaw and Raja Bell-for-Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley swap. The Bobcats picked up two top-notch defenders (Tyson Chandler and Stephen Jackson) on the way to the league's top defense this season.

In Brown's first stint with Philadelphia, the 76ers were in the top five in defense in every season but his first. Brown has always been known as a meddling coach, one who pushes for personnel moves behind the scenes. It tends to work for him -- he knows what type of players he needs to run his system. (Passionate defenders, wings who'd rather drive than shoot and smart point guards who don't make careless mistakes.) The Bobcats were full of Larry Brown players, with Jackson, Gerald Wallace and Raymond Felton sticking out.

But the 76ers have the make-up for success under Brown, too. Andre Iguodala is among the league's best perimeter defenders -- strong, agile, athletic. Samuel Dalembert is a consistently great defensive rebounder, and a serious shotblocker. Thaddeus Young has all the tools, and Jrue Holiday, the 19-year-old point guard, has a great head for the game. Marreese Speights will not among Brown's favorites, in all likelihood, and one could see a despairing Elton Brand and Brown coming to loggerheads over minutes and role. But the core of the team is, or should be, Iguodala, Young and Holiday. (I can't decide whether Brown would love Lou Williams -- the coach adores Mike Bibby and Chauncey Billups -- or would fine him for every three-pointer attempted.)

I'd be completely fine with this. I loved Larry Brown when he was here, and his Sixers teams were by far the most exciting of my lifetime. And shit, if the only way to get him is to make him GM too, I'm down. Ed Stefanski has been a disaster. Though Brown shipping off young players and acquiring veterans on a whim does scare me. But sure as shit beats the current status quo.

-Jorge Posada is a giant bowl of asshole — I've never in my life seen a catcher complain to umpires more in my life than Jorge did when he was batting last year in the World Series — but this interview with him discussing the pitchers he's "caught" over the years is pretty damn interesting. I put caught in quotes because Jorge is one of the single worst defensive catchers ever. What Phillies (or Yankees) fan could ever forget his "passed balls" game against the Phillies?

-Wysh has Mike Richards sixth on his Conn Smythe watch, which is a little funny to me. Richards certainly played great in the first round against Jersey, everything you expect of him, but if you watched that series closely, you know Claude Giroux was the best skater and Brian Boucher the most valuable guy. Richards wouldn't even be the most valuable guy on the Flyers thus far, let alone the playoffs, at least in my opinion. Though, like I said, he has played great. The Flyers are going to need him to continue that for sure.

-A very fair and accurate analysis of Andre Iguodala's season. The guy is a good basketball player. Though I will point out, he's criticized for his leadership, ego, shot selection, contract, body language, wardrobe, rejecting the nickname "Iggy," free throws and not being a superstar for good reason. But he is a really good player that probably gets a bad rap because of his contract. I know I'm guilty of it. But that's what comes with the territory when you get superstar bucks.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

I was going to write (in jest) about how we should trade Roy Halladay, you know, because he was not so good last night against a mediocre San Francisco lineup, or perhaps about Jaroslav Halak's preposterous performance against the Caps last night (53 saves in a 4-1 win to force a game 7). But then I finally finished up reading Bill Simmons' massive two-part NBA's think,know and prove column while taking a mammoth shit this morning. I felt obliged to comment on it.

Let me preface this by saying I really enjoy reading Simmons, despite the recent internet backlash against him, especially when he writes about the NBA. I thought his book was very entertaining, and his insights are usually at least somewhat informed. Sure, like everyone else, I can't stand when he shoves Boston everything down our throats in a national column, and he certainly loves to go overboard on the players he hates, but I typically like him more than not. Though I do admit, as the years have worn on, he becomes more and more smug, acts more and more like he has all the answers and if you disagree with him you are wrong. And boy oh boy did that all come out in this terribly inaccurate series.

This year's NBA Most Valuable Player news conference should have been the least suspenseful announcement of 2010, but Ricky Martin already snared the honors by coming out of the closet last month. LeBron James' second straight trophy will have to settle for No. 2. It's such a foregone conclusion that I scrapped my annual MVP column for the first time in six years. In fact, let's add that to LeBron's historical résumé:

"So fantastic in 2009-10 that a sportswriter scrapped one of his five favorite columns to write every year because it just seemed pointless."

Yes, because this year's MVP news conference should be all about you. Jackass.

LeBron submitted the most convincing MVP campaign in 10 years. Maybe his numbers didn't differ dramatically from those in his previous two seasons -- although he nearly broke John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating record, shot 50.3 percent from the field, and averaged 29.7 points, 8.6 assists, 7.3 rebounds and 5.4 holy-s----did-he-just-do-that's per game -- but these 2009-10 games felt more like performances. We always wondered whether he would become a supernatural cross between Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson and Bo Jackson some day. Well, it happened. His command of every game, and every arena, was unlike anything we have seen since Jordan's heyday. He put a complete stamp on his team (both its style of play and its personality) like nobody since Larry Bird and Magic. His joy for every game was contagious. He brought it every night. He always gave a crap. Even last season, you couldn't totally say that.

Yes, because Steve Nash, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan … guys like that didn't put a complete stamp on their teams.

That's what made it so funny when LeBron took heat for resting before the playoffs. Are you kidding? Did you WATCH this season? Did you watch everything he did for the Cavaliers? Did you see the pounding he took? I don't care if he's a 6-foot-9, 280-pound behemoth who might have been created in a laboratory by scientists during the Reagan administration. A beating is a beating. For 76 games, he took one. You have two goals: clinch home-court advantage, and win the title. Once you accomplish one, you start focusing on the other.

People are upset because they pay money to see LeBron play. The Cavs, presumably, didn't drop ticket prices or refund customers with LeBron sitting, even though they most likely bought those tickets to see LeBron play. That's why people are upset. Not everyone is a rich, smug sportswriter who can get a press pass to attend games for free, or you know, afford to pay for season tickets to a shit franchise like the Clippers.

Will that stop some media jackass from climbing on his high horse and robbing LeBron of a unanimous vote for MVP? Of course not. Media members live to screw this stuff up. Ten years ago, Shaquille O'Neal broke a sweat from beginning to end, averaging about 30 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and three blocks, and shooting 57 percent for a Lakers team that won 67 games (and eventually the title). That will always be remembered as The Shaq Season, at least by me. He should have won unanimously, but Fred Hickman decided to vote for Allen Iverson ... who finished sixth overall. That's right, Fred. It's been 10 full years, and I still remember how moronic that was. You're my go-to guy whenever I find myself in a "Who made the dumbest MVP vote ever?" conversation. Congratulations.

Yes, that was a dumb a vote. Clearly no other writer or voter has ever made a dumb statement.

There is definitely another Fred Hickman out there. I would bet anything. Just know that LeBron was the best player on the best team. He had the best stats. He was the most dominant from night to night. His best game was better than anyone else's best game. He meant the most to his team. He owned the 2009-10 season. I could prove these things to you with 6,000 words or 500, but that's the point: I shouldn't have to. In this case, any dissenting opinion is just wrong.

His best game was better than anyone else's? How can you prove this? Lots of players have great games in which they take over and their teams win. You cannot prove this, otherwise you would have. And dissenting opinion is dumb, but not wrong. I don't agree with it, but by its very definition, an opinion cannot be wrong. Saying an opinion is wrong is wrong. That's a fact.

That brings me to the "What do we think? What do we know? What can we prove?" exercise used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the movie "And the Band Played On." (I first wrote about it in 2005, when I became the first writer to lead an NFL gambling column with a relevant story about AIDS and the CDC.) I can prove LeBron should be the unanimous MVP. But what about everything else that happened this season? And what about the playoffs?

What do we think, what do we know and what can we prove? Let's break it down into three categories ...

Look at me! I do things no one else does! Aren't I great? You must get tired patting yourself on the back.

WHAT DO WE THINK?

I think I want to know what life would have been like if Oklahoma City had taken Stephen Curry or Tyreke Evans over James Harden.

Sam Presti probably made the right choice. Repeat: probably. When you have someone like Kevin Durant (the best younger-than-25 scorer since Jordan), you borrow the Pippen-Grant-Cartwright recipe, surround that guy with flexible role players, and worry about chemistry and defense before anything else. I get it.

Which is why he actually is a GM, not some guy who lobbies to be the Bucks' GM (by the way, how's Milwaukee doing without you? Just fine? You don't say!).

But just for fun ... I mean ... don't you wonder how the Curry/Evans directions would have turned out? I wish we could play them out in an alternate universe "Lost"-style just to see what would happen. My best guesses:

Sure. I also wonder how your best guesses are any different than your worse guesses.

The Evans Universe: Makes the Zombie Sonics better on paper, screws them up in real life. Russell Westbrook would be threatened as the primary playmaker/distributor; Durant would be threatened as the alpha dog. From a chemistry standpoint, I'm dubious. I just don't think you need him. Think of it this way: I'm already making you dinner with Durant as my main course. He's the $200 slab of filet mignon on the bone. We're at a table with 10 other people. We're chowing down. We already have a Caesar salad (Westbrook), cream of mushroom soup (Serge Ibaka), potatoes au gratin (Jeff Green), asparagus (Thabo Sefolosha), sweet potatoes (Eric Maynor) and the filet (Durant). Harden is delicious corn bread done southwestern-style; Evans is a $150 rack of lamb. Do I really need the lamb? If I brought that out, wouldn't you say, "Good God, this is too much food; I'm gonna have a heart attack!" It might be delicious, but I don't need it. I need the corn bread.

Given all of the above, I think the corn bread is even going overboard.

The Curry Universe: Much more intriguing. Fits in from a chemistry standpoint. Hurts them defensively, but you can always get away with one squeaky wheel if the other four wheels are humming. (See: Parker, Tony.) Doesn't totally threaten Westbrook; as we saw with the Curry-Monta Ellis experiment this season, Curry floats between both guard spots effortlessly. And the shooting ... I mean ... good God. Nobody could ever double Durant with Curry's guy. Beyond that, alt-OKC would have two younger-than-22 shooters with 28-foot range and two 50-40-90 (field goal-3 point-free throw) percentage threats year after year. Could it find another Harden-like talent through the draft or free agency? Yes. Could it find another Curry-like talent? No. He's an original prototype. I like this universe more than Harden World. Sorry. Speaking of Curry ...

But Sam Presti made the right decision. Probably. But I like Curry better. So I just lied.

I think Curry was the 2009-10 Rookie of the Year.

If I didn't know what the definition of an opinion was, I'd call this statement wrong.

Look, I wanted to pick Brandon Jennings because he started for a playoff team, but you can't miss 65 percent of your shots for the last four months of the regular season and be my rookie of the year. Sorry. That leaves two guards (Curry and Evans) who put up gaudy stats on terrible teams. I just thought Curry had a higher degree of difficulty: crazy coaching situation, crazy ownership/front-office situation, super-crazy roster. He played with Ellis and Corey Maggette (two of the ultimate me-first guys), and a rotating cast of promoted D-Leaguers and bench guys. He didn't have a decent low-post player or rebounder; you knew things were bad when someone said the words, "We really miss Ronny Turiaf right now." And yet, he got better every month (check out his splits), and became the first rookie ever to average 17 points and two 3s per game and top 85 percent free throw shooting and 40 percent 3-point shooting (nobody even came close before).

If you wanted to pick Brandon Jennings, as much as I love that guy, my opinion is you're dumb. Jennings had a great season, but as you said, he was nowhere near the class of Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry from start to finish.

Evans made history as well, joining the 20-5-5 Rookie Club along with MJ, Oscar Robertson and LeBron. Pretty good company. But he had better teammates, and if you want to get technical, I never watched a Warriors game without thinking, "Curry would be fun to play with" at least once. I can't say the same about Evans. Curry gets my vote. By the way, I still want to know how Minnesota's David Kahn had the fifth and sixth picks in the draft, took two point guards, and somehow missed Curry AND Jennings. He was like the kid with the gun in the Big Kahuna Burger apartment who fired 25 bullets at Jules and Vincent Vega, and somehow didn't hit either of them.

Apparently, we should base our ROY voting on whether or not Bill Simmons thinks the player would be fun to play with. Hard to disagree.

And look at David Kahn! Bill Simmons should be GM of the Timberwolves!

I think this spring could be the last stand for the Rejuvenated Atlanta Hawks.

And here's why: Joe Johnson is getting max money this summer to play in Chicago, New Jersey, New York, Clipperland or wherever. He's irreplaceable for Atlanta obviously. Assuming Josh Childress returns from his Greek exile, that gives the Hawks Childress, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Jamal Crawford, Marvin "I Look Worse As A No. 2 Pick Each Season" Williams, Zaza Pachulia, Zaza Pachulia's bacne and Mike Bibby's chalk outline next season. That's a 42-win team. The window is right now. They can absolutely make the 2010 Eastern finals ... and then get swept, but still. The Eastern finals!

Do you think Joe Johnson is getting max money somewhere, or is this a fact? Because let me tell you something, Joe Johnson very well may get max money somewhere, but I don't know that for a fact. Neither do you. What if he re-signs with Atlanta? Still the last stand this season?

I think Larry Brown could absolutely outcoach his first- and second-round opponents this spring.

Stan Van Gundy and Mike Brown have both coached their teams to the finals. Mike Woodson has helped develop a young core in Atlanta. They may not be as accomplished as Larry Brown, but they aren't John freakin Lucas either.

I think Ernie Grunfeld should be the 2009-10 Anti-Executive of the Year.

He turned Dallas into a contender and made Cleveland the overwhelming favorite. His failure to grab J.J. Hickson in the Antawn Jamison trade was the biggest front-office boner of the season by someone not named "David Kahn" and, if you want to dig deeper, an important chess piece in this summer's "Will LeBron stay or go?" drama. Without Hickson, Cleveland wouldn't have a young player to include in a summer sign-and-trade if, say, LeBron stays and Chris Bosh or Joe Johnson wants to join him. Keeping Hickson allows the Cavs to say to Toronto/Atlanta, "Bosh/Johnson is leaving anyway -- give him the max and flip him to us, and we'll give you Hickson, two future No. 1s and $3 million, and sign Shaq for one year and $10 million to make the swap of contracts work ... do we have a deal?" Thanks again, Ernie. You just opened the window for Cleveland to win five straight titles.

LeBron wasn't going to Washington. What does Grunfeld care if he stays in Cleveland or goes somewhere else and opens that franchise's window to win a bunch of titles?

(The Exec of the Year: Milwaukee's John Hammond. Dumped Richard Jefferson's contract, picked Jennings, stole John Salmons from Chicago, nailed the Carlos Delfino signing, maintained his cap flexibility going forward, allowed the "Fear the Deer" era to unfold. That was a clinic on how to keep a small-market team relevant. Had Andrew Bogut not Theismann'ed his elbow, the Bucks absolutely would have beaten Boston in Round 1, and my mom would have been saying to me, "What's up with this Fear the Deer thing?" Alas. By the way, Scott Skiles being the 2009-10 Coach of the Year goes without saying. So I don't know why I said it.)

But Simmons could have totally done so much better. You missed out, Milwaukee fans.

I think Portland had the best home crowd this season.

The perfect blend of creepy intensity, genuine devotion and a massive inferiority complex. I never stumbled across a Blazers game in which their fans weren't totally bringing it. Two great examples from Monday's Oklahoma City game: First, OKC had such a severe free throw advantage, and Portland fans were so furious about it that it seemed like we were headed for the first triple ref homicide. (I tweeted that the whole situation reminded me of Chris Rock's old joke, "I haven't seen white people that mad since they canceled 'M.A.S.H.'") Only Portland fans and Utah fans can make a casual observer feel like the officials are in actual danger. That's a good thing. In the old days, every crowd did that.

Yes, because we all know refs should fear for their safety at work.

Second example: Because news broke of Brandon Roy's soul-crushing knee injury that same night, there was particular meaning to Marcus Camby's get-on-my-back performance (30 points, 13 rebounds) ... which the Blazers' fans recognized by passionately chanting, "Mar-cus Cam-bee!" when he finally left the game. Just a great moment. Only Knicks fans (if they had a good team and were presented with a similar situation) would have seized it with the same gusto. Made me remember the days when NBA crowds knew what the hell they were doing. Gotta love Rip City.

Oh really, only Knicks fans would do such a thing? Fucking Sixers fans, who didn't even show up during the regular season, starting chanting, "REG-GIE! REG-GIE! REG-GIE!" two seasons ago when Reggie Evans busted his ass against the Pistons in the playoffs. Everyone's fans do this. That's what fans do.

(Best NBA crowd rankings for 2009-10: 1. Portland, 2. Utah, 3. Golden State, 4. New York ... then a big drop-off to the next group of cities. Biggest drop-off: Boston, a team that won 50 games but had a better road record than home record. In the defense of Boston fans, they spent the first half of the season waiting for Kevin Garnett to stop limping, then the second half arguing about who should charge the court, pull a Shane Stant on Rasheed Wallace and serve the mandatory prison sentence. They were distracted.)

In more defense of Boston: WHO CARES ABOUT THOSE DAHKIES?!? LACKEY, SCUTARO! SOX, BABY! YANKEES SAHK!

I think Cleveland will win the 2010 title.

Best team, best player, best season. Of course, we could have said that last year. But Jamison and Shaq give the Cavs a flexibility last season's team just didn't have. They can go small, big, medium ... doesn't matter. The only concern if you're picking nits: LeBron still gets a little overeager during big moments, like how his bizarre pull-up 3-pointer derailed what would have been an incredible comeback in Boston on Easter Sunday. Kobe Bryant battled with the Hero Complex for years and years, finally settling into an icy assassin these past two seasons. But it took forever. LeBron isn't there yet. I still think he can be had in a tight game by the right team -- like how Boston exposed Kobe in the 2008 Finals -- but he gets credit for being a vicious closer with a lead (nobody's better up five with two minutes to go).

Yes, LeBron in the clutch is Cleveland's biggest concern. Right. The same guy Simmons just rightfully slobbered over as the MVP.

You know how we will know when LeBron is ready? When, after big shots, he doesn't run over to his bench and hop onto teammates like an overgrown spaz anymore. Maybe Dan Gilbert needs to buy MJ's game-worn, "I knew it was going in" fist pump off eBay.)

Because everyone knows you can't be great and get excited when you do something good.

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

I know Hedo Turkoglu was the 2009-10 LVP (Least Valuable Player).

No you don't. You think he was. Because he had a shitty season. But was he any less valuable than, say, Elton Brand?

We knew it was a desperation move to give Hedo $50 million, and it didn't seem far-fetched at all that someone who peaked two years ago would struggle in a new city in a new offense for a new coach without Dwight Howard protecting him defensively. But I never thought he'd become Enemy No. 1 in Toronto. Hedo fell off a basketball cliff; he's almost unrecognizable. It's like seeing Garry Shandling in the new "Iron Man 2" trailer: Wait a second, I recognize that voice. Is that ... no! It can't be! Poor Hedo might want to give up the cigarettes and cheeseburgers this summer. As for some LVP runners-up: Rasheed Wallace (No. 4), and Philly (No. 3) would have stunk with or without Elton Brand.

First of all, Hedo was great last year, helping the Magic get to the Finals, so I'm not sure he peaked two years ago, but whatever. And Philly isn't a player. It's a team. Moron.

Emeka Okafor (No. 2) deserves his own paragraph. His career arc looks like something you'd see from a guy in his mid-30s. His contract ($10.6 million this year, $38 million over the next three) is a salary cap tsunami for a small-market team. He's a horrible match for a Hornets team that once loved having its big guys set picks for its point guards, then roll to the hoop for alley-oops. (Okafor can't do it. Not in his skill set.) Since he can't post up or shoot free throws, he's useless for the Hornets offensively. (According to hoopdata.com, he was a 38 percent shooter inside 10 feet.) Defensively, his shot-blocking and rebounding numbers dipped, and his athleticism made you think, "Wait, is that Theo Ratliff?"

Are you trying to take a knock on Theo's athleticism? I'm pretty sure that's entirely why Ratliff made it to the NBA: his great athleticism that allowed him to run the floor, block shots and grab rebounds.

Maybe Okafor hasn't been a bust on the Pervis/Darko/Bowie/LaRue/Kwame/Oden (sorry, he has to be thrown in at least for now) level, but at the very least, he's been profoundly disappointing. I'm just glad I never wrote that Orlando should have taken him over Dwight Howard.

(What?)

(I did?!?!?!?!?)

(Expunge that from my archives, ESPN.com editors! DO IT RIGHT NOW! I MEAN IT!)

But you, Fred Hickman, you must live with your shame!

I know "Deron Williams or Chris Paul?" is a legitimate debate.

So does everyone else.

A big concession from the guy who once wrote that Williams was the Stone Temple Pilots to Paul's Pearl Jam. But Paul's knee injury combined with another stellar Williams season ... I mean, if you were picking one of them for the next 12 years and your life depended on it, which one would you pick? Doesn't Williams seem like a safer bet to stay healthy and have Jason Kidd-like longevity? Why does Paul's missing meniscus worry me so much? (Same for you, Brandon Roy. You already had bad knees.) In February's trade-value column, I ranked Williams 10th, Derrick Rose ninth, Roy eighth and Paul seventh. Now? I think I'd go Roy 10th, then Paul, then Williams, then Rose (who's been playing out of his mind lately). Either way, R.I.P. for the Stone Temple Pilots joke. And for Paul's sake, let's hope this didn't turn into The Police (Paul) and U2 (Williams).

The Stone Temple Pilots/Pearl Jam thing isn't a joke. It's not funny, and it doesn't even make sense. And the Police/U2 is even worse, because the Police and U2 suck balls, while Paul and Williams are awesome.

(Important note: If Utah makes another conference finals this year, the debate swings in Williams' favor. I think it could have happened had the Jazz not lost the quietly rejuvenated Andrei Kirilenko down the stretch, which ended up costing them a No. 2 seed. Where does a Kirilenko injury swinging a conference finals prediction rank among the craziest things that happened this season? Above or below Kenyon Martin threatening everyone in Denver's locker room because J.R. Smith's chauffeur filled his Range Rover with buttered popcorn as an April Fool's prank? "I swear to God, man, when I find out who did this, I'm gonna put my mothaf---in' hands on y'all!" You're right; K-Mart was higher.)

I didn't even get a chance to answer, asshole.

I know Chauncey Billups needs to make the Hall of Fame Pyramid in the paperback edition of my basketball book.

Only 21 years old, best player on a 50-win team, youngest scoring champ ever, clearly headed for phenomenal things ... I mean, shouldn't we just get it over with and sneak him into the Pyramid now? Won't the book look dumb in five years if he's missing? Before the 2007 draft, I wrote that Durant had "a legitimate chance to go down with Bird, Magic, MJ, Baylor, Oscar, West, Duncan, Pettit, Havlicek and every other great non-center who ever played in the National Basketball Association." It can no longer be called "a chance." It's going to happen unless he gets injured.

But he could still get injured. No one knows.

What we still can't figure out: his offensive ceiling. Of other modern players who averaged 30-plus points a game, LeBron's scoring average peaked in Year 3 (also at age 21), MJ peaked in Year 3 (age 24), Iverson peaked in Year 6 (age 26), Tracy McGrady peaked in Year 6 (age 24), Dominique Wilkins peaked in Year 7 (age 27), Bernard peaked in Year 8 (age 29), Ice peaked in Year 10 (age 28) and Kobe peaked in Year 10 (age 28). So we're all over the map. But unlike everyone we just mentioned, Durant makes a high percentage of 3s, gets to the line and makes a high percentage of free throws. Great white sharks are eating machines; Durant is a scoring machine. He was put on earth to score in basketball games. When Phoenix's Jared Dudley said on my podcast that Durant was the single toughest cover in the league, it didn't even seem outlandish. With LeBron, you can at least play off him and beg him to take dumb 3s. There are no outs with defending Durant. Play him tight, deny him the ball and hope for the best.

I bet he'll still try to figure it out.

So his ceiling becomes a question of simple math. Here were Durant's first three seasons:

If his ceiling is simple math, then you can figure it out, which is the complete opposite of what you just wrote.

Let's improve his 2009-10 season with five simple/realistic tweaks: three more shots, one more free throw, better 3-point shooting (up to 44 percent), more 3s and a better overall field goal percentage (up to 50 percent). Something like this:

52.0% FG, 44% 3FG, 92% FT, 23.5 FGA, 5.9 3PA, 11.2 FTA.

Let's tweak things we have no way of knowing will get tweaked in a similar manner, if at all!

According to those (realistic and not entirely far-fetched) numbers, Durant would make 2.7 3s (8.1 points), 10.3 free throws (10.3 points) and 9.3 2-pointers (18.6 points) per game.

According to those (realistic and not entirely far-fetched but completely made-up) numbers …/fixed

If Durant HOGGED the ball, got to the line and made his 3s? Forty a game. You heard me. He isn't wired that way and would never go there ... but let's just say that, when LeBron boasted he could win the scoring title every season if he wanted, he forgot about someone. Durant needs to be snuck into the Pyramid with an "assuming he doesn't get injured" caveat. There's just no other way.

There's just no other way what? I don't know what you're talking about.

I know Manu Ginobili's recent scoring explosion and a few big-time victories roped people into thinking the Spurs might not be done ... .

But I'm not buying it. Too old, too creaky, too many dumb injuries. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker haven't looked good in three months. I don't see it.

For the record, the Spurs are up 3 games to 1 against Dallas, the very definition of not being done.

I know Denver hasn't been the same since George Karl got sick.

And with reason. In the movies, Karl gets sick, the team rallies around him, he vows to come back for Round 2, he does and the team ends up winning the title. In real life, he gets sick, he vows to come back for Round 2, but the Nuggets can't make it out of Round 1 because Utah has a better team. I hate real life.

I hate real life too, but not because all the things I think I know aren't happening (except this one).

I know the Celtics are going to lose in Round 1

The Celtics are up 3-1, needing just one more win to not lose in Round 1, and it took a superhuman effort by Wade just to make it to a fifth game.

On Tuesday, I thought Dwyane Wade could beat by himself what I described in a recent e-mail as a "decrepit, non-rebounding, poorly coached, dispirited, excuse-making, washed-up sham of a contender" (admittedly, I was a little angry) … and that was before the Celtics tanked Game 82 on Fan Appreciation Night in a pathetic attempt to land Milwaukee in Round 1. Nope. They got Wade and Miami. The karma gods hate that crap. And that's what this season was: crap. The Celtics have been a .500 team for nearly four months. Everyone has a glazed, "As soon as we get eliminated, we get to start summer vacation, right?" look on their face, and if you could describe Garnett's bizarre clinging-to-the-past-and-not-getting-the-hint-that-he's-done-as-an-impact-player season with a movie character, it would absolutely be O'Bannion from "Dazed and Confused."

I repeat, the Celtics are up 3 games to 1.

All this shocked the die-hards who loved the 2008 and 2009 teams and never thought they'd become, for lack of a better word, weak. Yes, we won two years ago. Putting us well within my self-proclaimed five-year grace period -- see rule No. 12: "No fan can complain about a team that just won a title for five years" -- and making me a hypocrite for everything you read in the previous paragraph. Of anything I ever wrote, I regret the five-year grace period most. I created it three weeks after the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVI, my first Boston title in 16 years. It had been so long since one of my teams won anything that I had forgotten what it felt like. So really, my creating rules for fans of championship teams was like Kate Moss releasing a manifesto for eating fatty foods. How the hell would I know?

Don't hold me accountable for things I did in the past … but you Fred Hickman, you must be reminded of all your past wrongdoings!

Here's what I learned from 2002-10 (six Boston titles in all): You can't stop being a sports fan just because your team won a title. Sports are all about the highs and lows. If you don't get swept up in them, you become detached, and eventually you won't care as much. Just because the Celtics won two years ago doesn't give them the right to embrace "Don't worry, we might not care now but we're gonna try in the playoffs" as their team mantra two years later, just like I shouldn't be obligated to accept their recent foibles out of some twisted sense of gratitude.

Despite what I wrote before.

I thought the Celtics played their fans this season. Don't rope us in with "ubuntu" for two years then turn your back on it like it was a kabbalah fad or something. Don't tell us to embrace "The New Big Three," then shop Ray Allen for eight months like he was a used car. Don't tell us our best forward's knee is fine when we see him limping. Don't blame the effort of your players after a loss when you played all 12 of them like they were Little Leaguers, or when you keep playing the one guy who exhibits no effort whatsoever without calling him out once. Don't sign a second center for big bucks, then act surprised when the incumbent center bristles about his playing time. So on and so on. It was an empty season filled with excuses, half-truths and false promises. Just because they won two years ago doesn't mean fans had to blindly condone it.

Yes, because I'm sure the Celtics, with their roster of three future Hall of Famers who also happened to add a title-winning center known for his defense and rebounding, were out to screw over their fans. That's why they're tanking in the playoffs. Only up 3-1! Ridiculous!

I once wrote that Miami's 2006 title run was like a group of guys in Vegas spending crazy money at dinner, having a great time, ordering dozens of dishes and drinks and never once worrying about the check

It wasn't.

… and the 2007 Miami season was like the 10 sobering minutes when the check arrives and nobody can believe the bill. The check just gets passed around so everyone can stare it in horror, then the one dude with an MBA grabs it and figures out what everyone owes, and you limp out of the restaurant saying, "I can't believe we just spent $250 apiece on dinner, I gotta hit an ATM," but it takes an extra 10 minutes to leave because somebody has to take a dump and somebody else thinks they have a chance with the waitress, so the rest of the guys are just clustered in the lobby, totally full, a little bit drunk, a little bit tired, trying to rally for a big gambling night but knowing they're about to get their asses kicked because you can never win in Vegas when you're drunk, full and tired.

The good news for Mavs fans: great chemistry; fantastic free throw shooting; very good crunch-time scorer (Nowitzki); quality 3-point shooting; low turnovers; legitimate shot-blocking/rebounding thanks to the Brendan Haywood trade and Erick Dampier's contract year; some genuine toughness; home court through the first two rounds (and possibly Round 3 if L.A. chokes); and even a water-bug point guard who could bother the Parkers/Nashes for a few minutes per half (Roddy Beaubois).

The bad news: You're down 3-1 to a Spurs team that is supposed to be finished according to Simmons.

The bad news: no low-post scoring; too many jump shots; two or three guys who never want to shoot in crunch time unless they have to; a lack of athleticism (noticeable against lanky/young/athletic teams like OKC and Atlanta); too much J.J. Barea; any point guard with a first step can drink Jason Kidd's milkshake; any explosive 2-guard will single-handedly annihilate them (see: Ellis, Monta); and even though the Caron Butler trade was a no-brainer, he's a world-class ballstopper. In other words, when he gets the ball, everything stops. Hmmmmm … I have the ball … clear out for me … OK … hmmmmm … what move should I try?… maybe I'll dribble a few times … I hate guys like that.

Except that's not the real bad news. It's that you're down 3-1.

And yet, throw Kidd, Dirk, Haywood, Marion and Butler out there at crunch time, and that's a tough group of mother-you-know-whats. If Jason Terry catches fire for a half, even better. (Again, the steal was Haywood, playing in a contract year, with a vested interest to give a crap for two months before someone signs him for $40 million and he stops caring again. In a related story, this is why we need a lockout.) The key, as always: Nowitzki. You win the title when your best player plays better than everyone else's best player; Nowitzki's crunch-time performance this season, according to 82games.com (46.7 points per 48 minutes, 45.2% FG, 14.0 FTM, +98) was more efficient than anyone except LeBron (66.1 points per 48, 48.8 FG%, 21.0 FTM, +116).

I thought Butler was a world-class ballstopper? Color me confused.

Now look at these Finals matchup odds from Vegas (see sidebar). You're telling me a Cleveland-Mavs Finals is conceivable once every seven times? Please. It's too bad gambling isn't legal or I would have stepped in here.

And lost all my money.

WHAT CAN I PROVE

I can prove that Andrew Bogut's fluke injury was unfair

How on earth can you prove this?

Because it was.

That's not proof.

If that doesn't happen, Milwaukee grabs a 5-seed, "shocks" Boston in Round 1 and has everyone excitedly babbling about Brandon Jennings, the "Fear The Deer" crusade, John Salmons' homeless-guy beard and the similarities between Scott Skiles and Norman Dale. Life ain't fair.

You also can't prove that, and didn't even offer anything remotely resembling proof.

I can prove that Brandon Roy will miss the playoffs

No, you can't. Because he didn't. He came back already, and has played. So you can't prove it.

And he will.

No, he won't. Because he's already back, and has already played.

Too bad, because the Blazers had evolved into "grind-it-out, get stops, make you conform to their style, hell to play them at home" contenders after the Camby trade.

That's exactly what they've been doing this series, even before Roy came back.

The real shame is that we wasted Camby, who should have played a major role on a contender this spring and now looks like he's heading home after Round 1. He should blame OKC's Sam Presti for not trumping Portland's crappy offer for him under a foolish "Nah, that's fine, we're young, we don't need to do anything like that right now" rationale.

And he should have taken Steph Curry! But he made the right pick in Harden, probably.

I believe the opposite: You can never be too young to make a run when you have one of the best scorers alive. Why not now? What's the big deal? So you sacrifice expirings and a protected lottery pick to get Westbrook, Green, Ibaka, Harden and especially Durant some crunch-time playoff reps? That's a bad thing? You never know what might happen when someone starts getting reps.

Because, you know, the Thunder aren't getting any crunch-time playoff reps in their series with the Lakers, which is tied 2-2. If only Marcus Camby were here!

For instance, this season's "American Idol" has a kid named Tim Urban who looks like a "Beatlemania" extra. He made the final 24 only because someone else got booted for already having signed a record deal. He stayed a couple of extra weeks only because he was "cute" and young girls were voting for him. Then he nailed Jeff Buckley's version of "Hallelujah" and bought himself a couple of weeks. Last week and this week, he found his voice -- like a cross between Joe Jonas, Jason Mraz and 90 other people on Sirius' coffeehouse channel -- and for all we know, he might win this thing. I would have given it 1,000,000-1 odds about six weeks ago. You just never know what might happen until someone gets those reps.

This has absolutely nothing to do with the Thunder, the Blazers, Marcus Camby or basketball. And it's terribly out of place in a basketball column. I hate everything about that paragraph.

OK, what does this have to do with Marcus Camby? The Thunder are in the playoffs, getting their crunch-time reps in a 2-2 series against the defending champs! Where am I?

That Indiana series had a profound impact on Wade's development as a future superstar; he had his sea legs under him from Round 1, then he went out and did his thing. Two years later, they won a title. Anyway, I think there's a humongous difference between "getting your feet wet in the playoffs" and "doing damage in the playoffs." Oklahoma City could have accomplished both. Remember we had this conversation when Pau Gasol is abusing Nick Collison in a big playoff game next week because Serge Ibaka fouled out.

Oklahoma City is doing both. Right now. They're tied 2-2 with the defending fucking champs!

I can prove that the 2010 Orlando-Cleveland series will be different than the 2009 Orlando-Cleveland series

No, you can't, but I'm listening.

Wrote it before, I'll write it again: The 2009 Magic were kryptonite to the 2009 Cavs because of the Turkoglu/Lewis duo, which could only happen because of Dwight Howard's ability to handle the shot-blocking/rebounding by himself. Teams had someone to cover Turkoglu or Lewis, but not both of them. It just worked. Swapping Turkoglu for Vince squandered that trump card. Throw in Jamison, Shaq and LeBron's vengeance factor and this feels like a totally different series than last year. Of course …

Again, this is not proof. And Vince is a better player who is more difficult to cover than Turkoglu, even the Turkoglu from last year. It may feel totally different, but that doesn't mean the outcome will be totally different.

I can prove that you can't win four straight playoff series by relying on Vince Carter

Again, no you can't, but again, I'm (stupidly) listening.

You know why? Because he's Vince Carter! Ask the Nets' fans about him. Ask the Raptors' fans about him. They know.

For the millionth time, that's not proof. You mean tell me Vince Carter is Vince Carter? Get the fuck out of here! I think Simmons needs to look up the definition of proof. And opinion, while he's at it.

I can prove that Magic fans just muttered to themselves, "We don't need to rely on Vince to win four straight series -- we had a +12.2 point differential after the All-Star break, you jackass."

You've made it abundantly clear you can't prove anything, but they at least offer some proof to refute your lack of proof.

My counter to your muttering: Where are you going in the last three minutes of a tight game? Last spring, you cleared out for Hedo and let him create shots for himself or someone else. Worked all the way to the Finals. What about this spring? Dwight Howard takes 10 shots a game and disappears down the stretch. According to 82games.com, Howard averaged 16.0 crunch-time points per 48 minutes, such a staggeringly low number that Al Horford (17.0) and Udonis Haslem (23.9) topped him, Andrew Bogut (16.0) tied him and Joakim Noah (15.6) nearly tied him. And that's fine. He was still the third-most valuable player in the league. (At least in my opinion.) But you can't win in the playoffs without someone creating quality shots in the last four minutes.

Vince Carter can do that. So can Rashard Lewis. And Jameer Nelson.

So where's it coming from? Jameer Nelson has slipped since his shoulder injury last season.

Except right now. He absolutely dominated in the first-round series against Charlotte.

Lewis' numbers have fallen off without Turkoglu.

That doesn't mean he still can't do the job.

That leaves Vince.

Which is a pretty good option.

Is anyone buying this? What happens the first time someone gives him a hard playoff foul on a drive? What happens if he tweaks his ankle and has to play through pain? What happens if he has menstrual cramps? (Jokes! I'm joking. Stop it. Settle down.) What happens (hypothetically) in a Game 6 in Charlotte or Atlanta, with Orlando trailing three games to two and facing a giant upset, tie game, two minutes to play, win or go home? Who gets the ball? Who takes over? Who is everyone looking at and saying, "Save us?" That's right … Vince Carter. The most disappointing superstar of his generation.

Yes, because this

and this

and this

and this

and these

were all just flukes.

You might be an optimist. You might believe in redemption. You might believe that, after A-Rod, Manning, Duke and Kobe, the thought of Vince Carter being the top creator on an NBA champ isn't far-fetched.

Especially since he's hit so many game-winners in his career.

I am a pessimist. At least when Vince is involved. Even though he's playing for his most talented team ever, I can prove he will destroy them in the end. Why? Because he's Vince Carter.

Good fucking god, this is not proof. Stop using that word.

Did you miss the past 12 years or something?

Nope, but you seemed to miss those buzzer-beaters he's hit.

Why do you think Orlando got him for 20 cents on the dollar?

Because New Jersey is dumb? And was clearing cap space for LeBron?

Why do you think Toronto fans still jeer him lustily even though he left six years ago?

Because he doesn't play hockey?

Why do you think Kidd pushed for a trade to Dallas?

Because Mark Cuban is an awesome owner to play for, and you know, New Jersey sucks.

Orlando fans, remember we had this conversation when there's a big playoff game in a few weeks and Vince is rolling around on the floor like he's been shot as you're screaming, "Get up! GET UP, VINCE! HE BARELY FOULED YOU! IT'S GAME 7! GET THE EFF UP!!!!!!!!!!!!"

When you write a column, it's not a conversation. No one else gets to respond. Though I'm trying.

I can prove that the Disease of More exists

For instance, the more money you get to write a sports column, the lazier you become, the more tired your ideas get and more full of yourself you get.

Our latest example: the 2009-10 Los Angeles Lakers. Just a classic year-after season, highlighted by Kobe grimly refusing to give up shots because he can smell the faint fumes of Karl Malone's scoring record; Gasol griping about Kobe's shot selection; Odom cruising through the season with "I just got paid and I just got married" intensity; Bynum griping about his minutes; Ron Artest launching a reality show; Farmar pressing because he's in a contract year; and the utterly amazing fact that DJ Mbenga has a publicist. You win a title, you get soft and everyone wants more: more shots, more money, more minutes, more everything. That's why Pat Riley called it the "Disease of More." That's why Bill Russell once wrote, "it's much harder to keep a championship than to win one."

The Lakers finished the regular season with the best record in the West and the third best record in the entire NBA.

Look, I know it's confusing as hell that a team as loaded as the Lakers might not make the Finals. Just know that we have decades of NBA evidence to back this up: You can't win without chemistry. Which reminds me …

Those are the 16 playoff teams. Thought that was interesting. We're clearly gravitating toward some sort of Chemistry Era.

An era that doesn't even exist!

A great example: Wednesday night, Phoenix at Utah. If the Suns lose, they land a 4-seed and a preferable matchup with Denver (which plays an open style that favors Phoenix). If they win, they jump to a 3-seed and a tougher matchup with Portland (more size, slowdown style, great crowd). General manager Steve Kerr heads to the locker room that night thinking, "We should bench the older guys [Nash and Hill], play our subs and settle for the 4-seed." What happens? Everyone wants to play. Better yet, they're excited to play. Kerr talks it over with Alvin Gentry; they decide to go for it and end up winning by 20. In their euphoric locker room afterward, Grant Hill tells Kerr the Suns have better chemistry than any team he's ever played for. And he means it.

And if a Duke player says it, it must be true. Just ask Mike Dunleavy about how honest Elton Brand is.

Those are the stories I need to hear about my title contenders.

Like the 2001-02 Lakers. Chemistry out the ass. Just ask Kobe how it tastes.

As far as I can tell, only six teams have a chance to win the title: Cleveland (the favorite); Dallas, Los Angeles and Orlando (the contenders); Utah (the wild card) and Phoenix (the people's choice).

Except every team that makes the playoffs has a chance. That's why they play the games.

If this truly was a Chemistry Season, that means Cleveland would play the winner of the Dallas-Phoenix Round 2 series in the Finals.

Dallas is down 3-1 to the Spurs. And what makes the Mavs have more chemistry than a San Antonio team with its three core players still playing together for years?

Up until Robin Lopez got hurt, I would have picked Phoenix mostly because of Nash and Amare Stoudemire, who quietly spent the past three months becoming the guy who torched Duncan in the 2005 playoffs again. If Lopez can come back for Round 2, this is Nash's best chance for a title. My favorite subplot of the playoffs. See …

Robin Lopez gives Steve Nash his best chance to win a title. Got it.

I can prove that Steve Nash was a worthy No. 4 MVP choice this year

Name me a star player with a harder job this season.

Dwyane Wade.

His shooting guard went into a funk for half the season. His sixth man missed half the year. His meal-ticket power forward obsessed over his own future for three months and nearly got dumped at the deadline. He's had two starting centers, and just when the second one was hitting his stride he got knocked out indefinitely. He had to carry the offense in crunch time for half the season (his 82games.com "clutch" numbers: 43.4 points per 48 minutes, compared to 27.5 for Amare); not really his game, and besides, he's too freaking old to do that. Or at least, he should be. None of it mattered. Phoenix won 54 games and has the most momentum of any Western team heading into the playoffs.

It must have been the chemistry!

The Suns' season could have fallen apart at a bunch of different points. It never did. Nash gets the credit. I remember hearing he re-signed last summer for three more years and thinking, "Why the hell would he do that?" The Suns seemed like a sinking ship. In America, we're used to superstars who find themselves stuck on a sinking ship, then bolt for greener pastures or selfishly demand a trade without considering the ramifications of that request. (Basically, they just announced to their teammates, "I don't think you guys are good enough to play with me." The situation immediately becomes irreparable. They don't care. They just want to leave. It's like self-sabotage.) Nash never would have done that. He's Canadian. He's loyal. He's the leader. Leaders are supposed to lead.

What does the fact that he's Canadian have to with it? Answer: Nothing. At all.

So he stayed, and he led, and they followed, and now they're here.

I thought it was his greatest season because of the degree of difficulty: Thirty-six-year-olds shouldn't be milking their statistical primes (16.5 PPG, 11.0 APG, 51% FG, 43% 3FG, 94% FT, unprecedented numbers for a point guard his age), performing open-heart surgery on teammates (in this case, Amare) and turning fringe playoff teams into explosive contenders. As recently as this winter, Steve Nash probably thought his Finals chances had come and gone, remembered the bad breaks in 2005 (Joe Johnson's broken face), 2006 (Amare's knee), 2007 (the suspensions) and 2008 (Duncan's 3), then said to himself, "I wish I could press the RESET button and get one more chance." Consider it pressed.

It's like when the Madden computer says, "No way you're going to win this game," makes you fumble a million times, so you press the reset button.

Either way, his brilliant 2010 season reinvented him historically. Now we're looking at a career.

If Steve Nash retired last season, we still would have looked at his career in awe. It didn't reinvent shit. It just confirmed that Steve Nash is all sorts of good, which we already knew.

Ten straight top-notch years, nine 50-win seasons, two MVPs (whether you agreed with the choices or not), seven All-Star games, three first-team All-NBAs, the best shooting percentages in the history of the point guard position, and pole position for the "guard everyone in his generation would have loved playing with most" contest over Kidd.

Without this season, we would have never even seen that "career."

A Finals appearance would be the cherry on the Steve Nash First-Ballot Hall of Famer Sundae. As always, stay tuned.

Monday, April 26, 2010

I'm just going to come right out and say it: Right now, Cole Hamels sucks. Yes, four starts is an extremely small sample size, but you know, 36 starts isn't. That would be the amount of starts Cole has had since the beginning of last season, not including his horrific playoffs.

In his last 36 regular-season start, Hamels has pitched 218 and a third innings and given up 107 earned runs, giving him a a 4.41 ERA over that span. Last year, he was 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, and opponents batted an absurdly high .273 against him. So far this season, he's been even worse. In his four starts, he's 2-2 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Opponents are hitting worse against him thus far, batting .255, but that number still isn't good. Most troubling has been how he's gotten to those numbers again.

This was supposed to be the bounceback year for Cole, where he put all the distractions aside, focused on his craft and matured. Instead through four games, he looks exactly like the underachieving pitcher from 2009 that completely imploded in the postseason. His stuff is there, good as ever, but there just seems to be that one inning, that one moment when something goes wrong and Cole comes off the tracks. It's become a troubling problem, one that seemed impossible following his impressive run in the 2008 postseason, where he earned NLCS and World Series MVP honors. Nothing rattled him then. Everything rattles him now, and has for more than a year.

In his first start this season, against the lowly Nationals, he allowed Washington to tie the game twice after his teammates gave him the lead. He did get a win and didn't pitch poorly, but it wasn't the lockdown performance you want your former ace to display. Five days later, he followed that up with another game against the Nationals in a performance that can only be described as shitty. Again, yes, he got the win, but that was thanks entirely to his bats, who bailed him out with 7 runs. Hamels dug the Phillies a 4-0 hole, highlighted by a three-run fourth where Cole got wild and came undone with two outs, giving up a two-run double to opposing pitcher Jason Marquis (though to be fair, Marquis is a great hitting pitcher).

His last outing prior to Friday, Cole finally did look the way we all want him to, the way he's supposed to, going 8 innings, giving up just two runs and striking out 8, only to lose. Crazy shit. He pitches average or worse in his first two outings and wins, then tosses a gem and loses. Still, that start gave us all hope. In his third outing of 2010, Cole Hamels looked much more like the 2008 version than the 2009. Then he took two giant steps backwards on Friday.

There was Hamels, working with a 2-0 lead in Arizona going up against the remains of Kris Benson in the 4th inning. Then bam, the wheels came off. Two-run homer to Mark Reynolds, followed immediately by an Adam LaRoche homer, followed by a single and then a third home run, this one by Chris Snyder, 5-2 Diamondbacks. Hamels gave up a fourth home run in the 5th for good measure, completing the collapse. One home run set things off. It's situations like that where you learn a lot about a pitcher. Aces go out there and more often than not respond to a home run or tough situation by coming back and getting out of it, limiting the damage. Hamels has more times than not over the past year-plus done the complete opposite, just as he did Friday night. One homer became two, then three, then four. That's all she wrote. As Bill Parcels was so fond of saying, you are what you are, and right now, for more than a year now, Cole Hamels is a shitty pitcher, an average Major League starter at best. He's still young and talented and has plenty of time this season to turn things around, but the fact of the matter is he was supposed have done that by now. We waited for it all last season and it never came. How much longer are we supposed to wait before it's determined it's never coming back? Hopefully we won't have to wait much longer. Hopefully Cole gets his shit together and becomes that ace he was destined to be. But the longer this goes on, the unlikelier that gets.

However, if you put Hamels up against Kyle Kenrick, well, he looks a whole heck of a lot better.

Let's stop with this whole "Kyle Kendrick is a Major League pitcher" joke and move on, shall we? The guy sucks. That's a fact. He doesn't belong anywhere near a major league clubhouse, unless it is to deliver hot chocolate to the real players.

Yesterday, he did his best Cole Hamels impression, imploding in the fifth inning to the tune of five runs, turning a 3-0 lead into a 5-3 deficit, and eventually the Phils lost, despite actually coming back to take the lead at 6-5, with a little help from Danys Baez and his 6.43 ERA blowing a save and David Herndon and his 7.04 ERA continuing to suck. The 5-inning, 8-hit, 5-run, 4-walk outing by Kendrick "improved" his numbers to a 7.71 ERA and 1.77 WHIP, with a .316 opponents batting average and an impressive 1:1 walk/strikeout ratio. Awesome. Joe Blanton can't get healthy soon enough. Man do I wish the Phillies really did trade Kyle Kendrick to Japan.

Even an injured Cliff Lee looks more impressive than Kendrick and Hamels right now.

Speaking of looking impressive, I hope you were all watching what Dwyane Wade did yesterday. If you didn't you missed quite a show.

The Celtics, trailing by six at halftime, turned it on in the third quarter, taking a lead into the fourth. Then Wade, who was already having a great game, went bonkers. He completely took over, refused to let his season end, hitting every conceivable shot you could imagine. With 25 seconds remaining in the third, Boston took a commanding 75-68 lead, which looked as though it had turned the tide in Boston's favor. Then Wade came out with a three to close the quarter, then hit a two, then hit another three, cutting Boston's lead to one. After Sheed hit a free throw, Wade made yet another three, giving Miami a 79-78 lead, and that was that. The Heat never looked back, as Wade dropped two more threes before it was all said and done, hit some free throws and jumpers, and kept his Miami Heat career alive for at least one more game. He finished with 46 points on 16-24 shooting, made five three pointers, grabbed five boards and passed off five assists. It was simply remarkable.

As Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson said during the broadcast, even if LeBron wasn't a free agent, teams would be shedding salary and opening up their cap space to sign Wade, he's that good. Sometimes people may forget that, with LeBron (understandably) receiving all the pub, all the hype. But in case you needed a reminder, Dwyane Wade is pretty damn good too. Shit, the guy is shooting nearly 60 percent from the field in this series, and yesterday he won that game practically on his own. It was awesome to watch.

Now let's touch on the draft a little bit. As Ed said on Friday, this was one of the most confusing first rounds in NFL Draft history, and it didn't get any less confusing for us Eagles fans over the weekend.

There was a plethora of talent in this class, especially at the safety position. A slew of familiar faces patrolling the secondary were available, and the Eagles definitely needed a safety. I really wanted Taylor Mays, given his size, speed and the fact he hits like a truck, but the guy was falling quickly on the draft boards, including Philadelphia's. The Birds picked Nate Allen, who by all accounts is going to be really good and fits exactly what the Eagles need: a playmaker in the secondary with the ball-hawking skills and range to make a great pass defender. I'm excited to see him play, though I was bummed that out of all the safeties out there, the Eagles drafted the one I knew the least about. I didn't watch South Florida play much the past couple years, but hard to argue with the pick.

I was more than stunned that the Eagles took another defensive end with their third pick, taking Daniel Te'o-Nesheim out of Washington. Perhaps this is prejudice, but all I think of when I hear his name is Chris Gocong. I can only hope he's a hell of a lot better than Gocong. A couple rounds later, they picked a third defensive end, Ricky Sapp out of Clemson, who was without question a value pick at that point. It was odd seeing them go with three defensive ends, but Sapp has a ton of talent as well, so I really liked the pick. They also got a corner in Trevard Lindley from Kentucky, picked up linebacker Keenan Clayton from Oklahoma, quarterback Mike Kafka from Northwestern, tight end Clay Harbor from Missouri, as well as three guys in the seventh round that more than likely won't make the team.

Two of the more intriguing picks to me though happened late as well. Riley Cooper is a tall, lanky receiver that could challenge Hank Baskett for that fourth wide receiver spot, perhaps perfecting the fade pattern in the end zone we heard so much about with Baskett but never actually saw. And Charles Scott out of LSU, the bruising back, could provide a nice developmental complement to LeSean McCoy, Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver with his big, physical style. If he can play special teams at all, I suspect this will be the end of the Eldra Buckley era. It's always nice to bring a short-yardage back into the fold given this team's struggles in that area during the Andy Reid era.

As far as Penn Staters go, Jared Odrick went in the first round to Miami (28 overall), joining Cameron "don't call me Derek" Wake. Sean Lee kept up the tradition of accomplished Penn State linebackers getting drafted by NFC East teams not named the Eagles, going in the second round (55 overall) to the hated Cowboys, following in the footsteps of LaVar Arrington (Washington) and Brandon Short (Giants). Unlike Short and Arrington though, Lee was never one of favorite players, though is all sorts of good.

Speaking of Penn State linebackers, Navorro Bowman went to the Niners in the 3rd round (91 overall) in what can only be considered stunning to me. I'm stunned that Bowman wasn't taken in the 2nd round, because he has late first-round/early second talent. And stunned that Lee went before him. But I really like where Bowman ended up, and I think I'm really going to like the 49ers. They now have Navorro, Patrick Willis, Michael Robinson and drafted Taylor Mays as well, giving them four players I absolutely love.

Rounding out the Penn Staters, Andrew Quarless went to the Packers in the 5th round (154 overall), and that could be a steal. Quarless entered Penn State as a highly touted, highly talented tight end prospect, and he showed flashes of brilliance early on. Then he got in the dog house, getting in trouble and being an immature kid. But in his senior year, he quietly had a really, really good season, doing all the things he was expected to do. At 6'4", 254, he has the size to play in this league, and his speed allows him to get out in patterns and beat his man. He should become a very good pass catching tight end in the NFL. He has to work on his blocking no doubt, but I think Quarless could be a potential steal down the line. Green Bay may not be the best fit with their talent at the position, but don't be surprise if in a couple years Quarless turns out to be everything L.J. Smith was supposed to be. That's who Quarless sort of reminds you of, an L.J. Smith guy, talent wise and even with the struggles. Hopefully he'll put it all together and become the reliable, consistent player L.J. couldn't. He does have this going for him: Unlike L.J., Quarless can actually hang on to the ball.

Mickey Shuler also got drafted but will probably never play, going in the 7th round (214 overall) to Minnesota, and in the single stupidest move ever, the Rams selected Josh Hull in the 7th (254 overall), just wasting everyone's time. Josh Hull is an awful football player who was too slow and took too poor of angles to the football in college. There is absolutely no shot he can be even remotely effective in the NFL. If he sees a single snap in a regular season game, I just may quit watching football forever (no I won't). He sucks. I hate him. And the Rams are assholes for even letting that guy get his named called.

Oh, and Daryll Clark didn't get drafted. Because he's a choke artist. Kind of like Cole and Kendrick these days. Basically, the complete opposite of Dwyane Wade.