By what metric is the Playstation brand weak? And you what of the Vita? It has had the benefit of Uncharted, CoD, God of War, and more... and it has amounted to nothing.

Isn't that kind of the point? The market for standalone hand-helds is just not that big anywmore not matter how strong the brand. That's why Nintendo and Sony need to move to smartphones. IOW you need to combine a strong gaming brand like Nintendo or Playstation with smartphone hardware.

Again the Xperia Play experience doesn't prove much. The hardware was average in ways that undermine the gaming experience: CPU, GPU and screen. The titles were mediocre. Sony didn't even allow the Playstation brand to be used. Both Nintendo and Sony can do a lot better in 2013.

My question was with regard to the Vita, not the Xperia Play. The Vita has been given competitive specs, a catalogue of titles from AAA brands like CoD and Uncharted, it has a great screen, excellent build quality... and it has amounted to nothing. Customers aren't buying it because there is no need in the market for the thing, as people feel the gaming experience they're getting from their smartphones is adequate enough.

Thus the logic goes that a gaming smartphone from Nintendo or Sony with compelling titles and compelling hardware is also adequate enough.

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Nintendo can develop a phone, but there no previous evidence that the market will accept one with dedicated gaming hardware controls. Just because it hasn't ever happened doesn't mean it can't, but I don't much like Nintendo's odds on a product like this myself. It just seems so pie in the sky to me.

Your logic is otherwise impeccable wrt to the Vita; if dedicated gaming consoles are losing their steam then Nintendo and Sony have to shake things up. If it is smartphones siphoning away the HW and dollars then it is a smartphone that they have to work on. This is the same logic that says Apple was replacing iPod sales with the iPhone because the days of a dedicated MP3 player were limited.

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A few other points: The age at which kids get smartphones seems to be falling. I know 13 year olds with expensive smartphones. This trend obviously increases the potential market for a Nintendo phone while simultaneously cutting into the market for their handhelds.

Around me I've seen the age drop to 10 years old!

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iPod touches are given to young children who want the functionality of a smartphone, but when the parents don't want to incur the high cost of a contract (or if the kids are just too young for a phone). This is a market segment that's already being filed, I don't see where there is opportunity for Nintendo there.

Um, precisely because a competitor is eating your lunch is why you protect your lunch.

Nintendo is losing sales to the iPod touch at the low end and iPhone at the high end because they don't offer smartphone functionality with or without the data plan. My kids love my iOS devices but would gladly prefer the Nintendo one if offered.

Only people who'd be caught dead with a Nintendo phone with an integrated gamepad would be the people you see dress up for Comicons or going to Trekkie conventions every year.

OrangeCream wrote:

That would be me and my entire circle of friends! You make it sound like a bad thing that we enjoy movies, comics, video games, and TV shows.

And only now does every one of OrangeCream's posts make sense.

There are conventions filled with a tens of thousand people like me, and they do in fact exist in multiple states in the US, meaning there are hundreds of thousands of people like me in the US alone, and we happen to have kids.

Then we also know that even outside the anime and gaming circle there are the 'normal' kids who love Pokémon and such, and then there is all of Japan, and a significant part of Asia, who also falls into this circle. In Japan alone there are conventions that draw a half million people.

We are niche in the same way everyone in the BF is niche; geeks no different than Trekies, browncoats, or any other fandom, and gaming happens to be quite mainstream now thanks to the wild success of the Wii.

Why is it that Maester gets this but ZnU and ZZ doesn't? What is so exotic about a 12mm slider dual screen plus stylus DS phone that Nintendo couldn't pull it off?

Nintendo is not a company that thrives on competing with other companies directly on specs. They release their consoles (mobile and others) largely on their own timescale.

The Android phone market is completely different. If they release an under-spec'd Android phone one year, it'll be completely ignored by the marketplace the next year unless they bump the specs.

Releasing a custom OS phone at this point in the smartphone market maturity is just madness.

No, if Nintendo starts getting into the mobile phone gaming market, it'll be a combination of putting their gaming franchises on other people's devices and possibly licensing 3rd parties to make Nintendo-looking phones.

It's not Nintendo, but Nvidia have announced Project Shield which is a weird Tegra 4 equipped console/controller running "Pure Android" — at least somebody gets it — for playing games that run on the device, or are streamed from cloud services that run on Nvidia hardware.

Nintendo can't ignore the competition. The Wii U's GPU and CPU was already a concession to the HD capabilities of the Xbox and PS3, they can't ignore the fact that smartphones (or similar devices) are now attacking both their handheld and console businesses.

Assuming Nintendo had given up to the inevitability of mobile gaming shifting to smartphones (and the iPod Touch), a special edition Nintendo iPhone and iPod Touch would actually make the most sense. A more stable platform than the Android spec treadmill, a powerful brand, and a large customer base with a track record of spending money.

Why is it that Maester gets this but ZnU and ZZ doesn't? What is so exotic about a 12mm slider dual screen plus stylus DS phone that Nintendo couldn't pull it off?

Nintendo is not a company that thrives on competing with other companies directly on specs. They release their consoles (mobile and others) largely on their own timescale.

No disagreement at all.

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The Android phone market is completely different. If they release an under-spec'd Android phone one year, it'll be completely ignored by the marketplace the next year unless they bump the specs.

By your own previous admission they don't compete on spec, so why is this relevant now?

The sales of their Wii, DS and GBA have thrived despite being weaker specwise than the competition because they had the awesome games.

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Releasing a custom OS phone at this point in the smartphone market maturity is just madness.

So why release a custom OS phone? Just use Android, throw in their own eShop + array of games, and make it a DS+phone.

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No, if Nintendo starts getting into the mobile phone gaming market, it'll be a combination of putting their gaming franchises on other people's devices and possibly licensing 3rd parties to make Nintendo-looking phones.

And why is this not madness? How is giving away the keys going to help Nintendo?

Some more info from the subculture. Penny Arcade is the host, as it were, for Penny Arcade [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny_Arcade_Expo]Expo[url], which has east and west coast events and draws attendees in the tens of thousands each (70k as recorded in 2011 for just one), and I've never even been to one because I have two kids. My family fully expects when the kids are older, and more mature, that we will go to one of these, with the son dressed up as Toon Link, the daughter as Toon Zelda, my wife as adult Zelda, and me as adult Link.

We will play video games and attend panels and get autographs and hang out with friends.

Not only PAX, but then there is Anime Expo and Fanime (where I asked my wife out!) and Otakon (where I first met my wife as a friend of a friend), who also have attendees in the tens of thousands. There is a serious subculture here that I thought was kind of obvious, but maybe it isn't.

It's not Nintendo, but Nvidia have announced Project Shield which is a weird Tegra 4 equipped console/controller running "Pure Android" — at least somebody gets it — for playing games that run on the device, or are streamed from cloud services that run on Nvidia hardware.

Nintendo can't ignore the competition. The Wii U's GPU and CPU was already a concession to the HD capabilities of the Xbox and PS3, they can't ignore the fact that smartphones (or similar devices) are now attacking both their handheld and console businesses.

Nintendo can't keep up with Sony and Microsoft in the slow moving console business, how the hell are they going to cope with the turbo-charged smartphone business?

Look at the announcements from Alcatel today. 6.5 mm thin super-phones, 1080p displays, latest quad A7 SoCs, lots of cheap colourful phones, and all from a second, or maybe even third tier company. God knows what the likes of Sony and Samsung have up the sleeves.

I don't believe that Nintendo could develop a gaming smartphone and get it to market before the competition rendered it obsolete.

By your own previous admission they don't compete on spec, so why is this relevant now?

The sales of their Wii, DS and GBA have thrived despite being weaker specwise than the competition because they had the awesome games.

It's relevant because they are in a different marketplace.

If you're in a market where the specs are goosed on a regular basis, you almost certainly can't get away with saying "but I'm a hybrid phone/gaming console, so the specs don't matter." This isn't the home market; it's a new market (for them) with different rules.

Every reviewer is going to review it as a phone first, game console second. It will be laughed out of town if it is not upgraded and refreshed on a cycle that looks like the rest of the Android industry, in particular. Words like "tired iron" and "not competing" will appear early and often if that isn't done.

But, if they do bump the specs, it's not clear that's a stable enough platform for game development, so it's not clear the hybrid strategy makes any sense, period.

Your basic concept seems to be that Nintendo can hermetically seal itself off from the phone market rules because it has a few premium games. That, to me, just seems daft.

100% of the smartphone owners surveyed knew the operating system of their smartphone.

That seems to be the complete opposite of the spin that we get on here again, and again, and again. Maybe the methodology of the survey was terrible, although I wouldn't expect that from Accenture as they are a very reputable firm. Still it certainly beats anecdote.

Once the Android app download numbers started to be published around here, it should have stopped entirely. Those numbers are in the billions now.

People have long made very strained arguments that boil down to the fact that if they look at some marketing literature (but not others), then consumers could maybe, maybe find their way to a phone without learning about the OS.

It's nonsense; it's easier to be in ignorance about what brand of tires is on your car. You can do it, but it takes real work. You get a fresh chance to learn the name every time you walk up to the car. Same with your phone.

The survey also reinforces some of the apparent bad news for things like Amazon and Nook that I've wondered about.

It does look like, once again, general purpose devices are positioned to do better. I had wondered whether this market would be different, especially with the devices so cheap.

However, what seems to be happening is that the regular general purpose tablets are so cheap, then it's just as easy to address the single function need with some app and have done with it. That seems especially true for the existing examples, eReaders and music players. Maybe even cameras (though I think there's a chance for that market to survive due to superior hardware).

...

Another hidden nugget in that Accenture report is that PC ownership (install base) has actually still managed to inch up. That means while they may not be buying as many, they aren't discarding them, either.

Who says Nintendo can't compete with Microsoft or Sony. How many years has it been that the Wii has been outselling the Xbox?

Those days are over now that the soccer moms and grandmas have bought them all. And the Wii U isn't going to do great. Nintendo is why Nintendo can't compete.

By what metric is the Wii U going to fail? There doesn't exist a better game console, and the similar XBox Kinect Bundle clocks in at the same $299 price as the basic Wii U (less storage but is bundled with games).

Are you going to suggest that Microsoft will sell a significantly better console in 2013 cheaper than the Wii U?

Assuming Nintendo had given up to the inevitability of mobile gaming shifting to smartphones (and the iPod Touch), a special edition Nintendo iPhone and iPod Touch would actually make the most sense. A more stable platform than the Android spec treadmill, a powerful brand, and a large customer base with a track record of spending money.

That would be me and my entire circle of friends! You make it sound like a bad thing that we enjoy movies, comics, video games, and TV shows.

No--it is a bad thing that you can't see that you are niche.

Of course I see I'm a niche; I'm part of a niche that numbers in the millions.

Japan alone bought 5m copies of Pokemon B/W in a quarter, and within a year of worldwide release sold 14m copies.

I'm saying that those 14m people would likely buy a Nintendo smartphone just so they can continue playing Pokemon, alone.

Throw on top of that the (overlapping) 22m people who want to play Mario Kart, or 29m Mario Bros... This is a strong, established, ongoing and growing install base.

Nothing I'm speculating on is extreme or out there. Take a DS and turn it into a slider and you've got the correct form factor. Beef up the internals to support the 'next generation' of games and you've got the correct HW. This is par for the course at this point, something they've piecewise done with their release of the 3DS.

Adding a 3G radio means of course a bump in price, from the $169 for the 3DS to a perfectly reasonable and palatable $299 for a smartphone. While too expensive for a dedicated gaming platform it isn't for a smartphone.

Now they just have to keep pumping out sequels to their existing franchises and keep selling in the tens of millions a year.

Who says Nintendo can't compete with Microsoft or Sony. How many years has it been that the Wii has been outselling the Xbox?

Those days are over now that the soccer moms and grandmas have bought them all. And the Wii U isn't going to do great. Nintendo is why Nintendo can't compete.

By what metric is the Wii U going to fail? There doesn't exist a better game console, and the similar XBox Kinect Bundle clocks in at the same $299 price as the basic Wii U (less storage but is bundled with games).

Are you going to suggest that Microsoft will sell a significantly better console in 2013 cheaper than the Wii U?

huh? The 360 is a better game console than the Wii U--and it is 5-6 years old. The xbox 4 is going to be even better.

and if you think that price poitn is going stay at $299 in 2013 then you are going to be sadly disappointed.

That would be me and my entire circle of friends! You make it sound like a bad thing that we enjoy movies, comics, video games, and TV shows.

No--it is a bad thing that you can't see that you are niche.

Of course I see I'm a niche; I'm part of a niche that numbers in the millions.

Japan alone bought 5m copies of Pokemon B/W in a quarter, and within a year of worldwide release sold 14m copies.

I'm saying that those 14m people would likely buy a Nintendo smartphone just so they can continue playing Pokemon, alone.

Wrong. A PORTION of theose 14mil woudl buy a Nintendo smartphone. And they would be lucky if it were 1/2.

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Throw on top of that the (overlapping) 22m people who want to play Mario Kart, or 29m Mario Bros... This is a strong, established, ongoing and growing install base.

And if you are LUCKY you might sell 20mil phones.

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While too expensive for a dedicated gaming platform it isn't for a smartphone.

Now they just have to keep pumping out sequels to their existing franchises and keep selling in the tens of millions a year.

and it is just too expensive PERIOD. People won't drop that kind of dough on their kids portable gaming device. On top of that, teh 3DS BOMBED at $250. and on top of that you have tons of other issues (bumping of specs, splitting the gamers, piracy, competition with other phones). etc.

Who says Nintendo can't compete with Microsoft or Sony. How many years has it been that the Wii has been outselling the Xbox?

umm..they aren't. And haven't been for about 2 years.

And they had for the first 4 years.

So the correct answer is '4 years' they outsold the XBox 360 in part because it was cheaper and in part because it was more fun.

So, circa 2013, the Kinect+360 is of course cheaper, and so will probably outsell the Wii U, excepting that everyone expects a new and more expensive XBox 4 to come out.

yes, the Wii had a good run. and was passed by. They don't seem to have repeated that success with the Wii U (judging by initial data). BTW--what makes you so sure that the Xbox4 will be more expensive?

Who says Nintendo can't compete with Microsoft or Sony. How many years has it been that the Wii has been outselling the Xbox?

Those days are over now that the soccer moms and grandmas have bought them all. And the Wii U isn't going to do great. Nintendo is why Nintendo can't compete.

By what metric is the Wii U going to fail? There doesn't exist a better game console, and the similar XBox Kinect Bundle clocks in at the same $299 price as the basic Wii U (less storage but is bundled with games).

Are you going to suggest that Microsoft will sell a significantly better console in 2013 cheaper than the Wii U?

huh? The 360 is a better game console than the Wii U--and it is 5-6 years old. The xbox 4 is going to be even better.

And more expensive, and more limited in manufacturing, and with less games.

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and if you think that price poitn is going stay at $299 in 2013 then you are going to be sadly disappointed.

What are you talking about? That the Wii U is going to go up in price?

Echohead2 wrote:

OrangeCream wrote:

Echohead2 wrote:

OrangeCream wrote:

That would be me and my entire circle of friends! You make it sound like a bad thing that we enjoy movies, comics, video games, and TV shows.

No--it is a bad thing that you can't see that you are niche.

Of course I see I'm a niche; I'm part of a niche that numbers in the millions.

Japan alone bought 5m copies of Pokemon B/W in a quarter, and within a year of worldwide release sold 14m copies.

I'm saying that those 14m people would likely buy a Nintendo smartphone just so they can continue playing Pokemon, alone.

Wrong. A PORTION of theose 14mil woudl buy a Nintendo smartphone. And they would be lucky if it were 1/2.

All 14m dropped cash in one way or another to buy a DS, a dedicated gaming device. Yes, it is silly to expect all of them to buy a Nintendo smartphone, but the point is that there exists 14m people open to the idea.

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Throw on top of that the (overlapping) 22m people who want to play Mario Kart, or 29m Mario Bros... This is a strong, established, ongoing and growing install base.

And if you are LUCKY you might sell 20mil phones.

Even selling 10m phones would be enough. 20m would be fabulous. The DS achieved 19m in it's prime, only 12m it's first year or so.

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While too expensive for a dedicated gaming platform it isn't for a smartphone.

Now they just have to keep pumping out sequels to their existing franchises and keep selling in the tens of millions a year.

and it is just too expensive PERIOD.

How so? Similarly priced smartphones lacking the game catalog sell for significantly more, and in higher volume. This would be cheaper than comparable smartphones.

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People won't drop that kind of dough on their kids portable gaming device.

They do for their kid's smartphones though.

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On top of that, teh 3DS BOMBED at $250.

That's my arguing point. The 3DS bombed at the $250 price point because it was more expensive than smartphones with more capabilities (namely it's phone, message, web, and app capabilities. Nintendo, like it or not, has to fight for consumer's dollars against smartphones.

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and on top of that you have tons of other issues (bumping of specs, splitting the gamers, piracy, competition with other phones). etc.

Sure, so what? They already have to compete against other phones, they already bump up specs on a regular basis, etc, etc, etc.

This is a rat race and I think Nintendo knows they have to adapt, adopt, or get left behind.

Again, the Wii U is instructive; they finally added HD after not having it. I believe they will do the same thing to the 3DS (adding 3G radio+phone support) for the same reason, because it's keeping them back.

I haven't seen any good arguments against:1) Why is $299 for a gaming smartphone too expensive, especially when it drops to $0 on contract?2) Why is Nintendo's game lineup somehow not a lucrative selling point?3) Why is the existing install base not open to upgrading to a Nintendo smartphone?4) Why is Nintendo incapable of continuing to develop their HW platform by adding a 3G radio?5) What choice does Nintendo have? What will they sell in 2014 if not a smartphone? 6) This is the Windows 8 Metro question; if the competition keeps eroding your platform, how can you not respond?

yes, the Wii had a good run. and was passed by. They don't seem to have repeated that success with the Wii U (judging by initial data). BTW--what makes you so sure that the Xbox4 will be more expensive?

Are you suggesting Microsoft will take a sizeable loss per console to make the XBox 4 competitive in price?

By your own previous admission they don't compete on spec, so why is this relevant now?

Because in the console market, the other players had a similar release schedule.

The smartphone market, namely the Android market, is completely different. The competitors are falling over themselves to release new models as fast as possible.

Now, if Nintendo can hold off on jumping to the smartphone market for, say, another 5 years, then it's possible the hardware will have plateaued and Nintendo could get away with 2 year CPU/storage/major hardware bumps and 1 year screen bumps.

And more expensive, and more limited in manufacturing, and with less games.

huh? Why in the world would the xbox 4 be more expsensive than the Wii U? I think you will find the xbox 4 comes out at a $300 price point (probably more than one like with the xbox360, but one will be at $300).

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What are you talking about? That the Wii U is going to go up in price?

I was speakign to the xbox+Kinect staying at $299. Not a chance it won't have a price drop in 2013.

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All 14m dropped cash in one way or another to buy a DS, a dedicated gaming device. Yes, it is silly to expect all of them to buy a Nintendo smartphone, but the point is that there exists 14m people open to the idea.

Unlikely. They dropped $160ish on a game console. THere is a huge difference between dropping $160 on a 3DS and $400-600 on a phone, plus a contract.

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Even selling 10m phones would be enough. 20m would be fabulous. The DS achieved 19m in it's prime, only 12m it's first year or so.

I meant over the life of the generation. So it might be 20mil over say 3-4 years.

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How so? Similarly priced smartphones lacking the game catalog sell for significantly more, and in higher volume. This would be cheaper than comparable smartphones.

Why would it be cheaper than comprable smartphones? It would be more expensive if anything.

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They do for their kid's smartphones though.

Not too many 6 year olds have a smartphone.

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That's my arguing point. The 3DS bombed at the $250 price point because it was more expensive than smartphones with more capabilities (namely it's phone, message, web, and app capabilities. Nintendo, like it or not, has to fight for consumer's dollars against smartphones.

and you think people would pay as much or more for a Nintendo phone that was less capable?

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This is a rat race and I think Nintendo knows they have to adapt, adopt, or get left behind.

They didn't with the Wii. They didn't with the DS, they didn't with the 3DS. They don't have to be in the race. that is the point. Why would they WILLINGLY enter a race that they aren't part of and likely wouldn't do well in.

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Again, the Wii U is instructive; they finally added HD after not having it. I believe they will do the same thing to the 3DS (adding 3G radio+phone support) for the same reason, because it's keeping them back.

When you see Nintendo making a Nintendo phone--short them.

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1) Why is $299 for a gaming smartphone too expensive, especially when it drops to $0 on contract?

Because of the contract. First off, there is almost no way it would be $299. You keep saying that figure like it would have a chance in hell at hitting it. Shit, they were at $250 when they didn't even have a phone and every spec was worse than a phone. Not sure hy you think they could hit it.

So likely $100-200 with a contract. versus $100-200 with no contract. And I tell you again, parents don't want to drop that kind of cash on their young kids.

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2) Why is Nintendo's game lineup somehow not a lucrative selling point?

It is a decent selling point.

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3) Why is the existing install base not open to upgrading to a Nintendo smartphone?

Because too large a portion are young kids. Parents aren't going to do that for their 6 year olds, 8 year olds, etc. Then you have a bunch who just don't want it anymore. Then you have some that have given up on it and would rather play 20 $1 games than 1 $20 game. etc. Only a small portion would be interested in this.

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4) Why is Nintendo incapable of continuing to develop their HW platform by adding a 3G radio?

They could, but why would they? it just doesn't get them that much.

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5) What choice does Nintendo have? What will they sell in 2014 if not a smartphone?

a dedicated game device. and if it is a smartphone, then put them on the EOL list. and really, it isn't the smartphone that is killing them, it isthe iPod Touch. That is what parents are getting their kids instead of 3DS.

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6) This is the Windows 8 Metro question; if the competition keeps eroding your platform, how can you not respond?

If the response puts you out of business, then for sure it is a bad choice.

yes, the Wii had a good run. and was passed by. They don't seem to have repeated that success with the Wii U (judging by initial data). BTW--what makes you so sure that the Xbox4 will be more expensive?

Are you suggesting Microsoft will take a sizeable loss per console to make the XBox 4 competitive in price?

Nope. Why would they? You seem to be forgetting that MS doesn't have that tablet that is a huge cost. They get to put that into the box. Kinect only cost $36 when it came out to make and likely Kinect2 won't even be that much. So MS probably has an extra $40-50 to put into the main box. On top of that they have things like xbox-live subscriptions to help. And they might take a loss, but it wouldn't have to be sizeable.

By your own previous admission they don't compete on spec, so why is this relevant now?

Because in the console market, the other players had a similar release schedule.

The smartphone market, namely the Android market, is completely different. The competitors are falling over themselves to release new models as fast as possible.

Now, if Nintendo can hold off on jumping to the smartphone market for, say, another 5 years, then it's possible the hardware will have plateaued and Nintendo could get away with 2 year CPU/storage/major hardware bumps and 1 year screen bumps.

I'm saying that those 14m people would likely buy a Nintendo smartphone just so they can continue playing Pokemon, alone.

No, about 13m of the 14m are going to wait for reality to set in and Pokemon becomes available, in some form, on the iPhone and Android platform.

now this is the real question. Why can't Nintendo just give up the hardware ghost and just publish on iOS and/or Android app stores?

Just think...if those 14m are willing to give up their phone for a Nintendo phone, then SURELY they are also willing to pay $20, $30, $50 for those apps in their app stores.

This route makes a lot more sense than Nintendo trying to do phones. Even if they just went iOS and ignored Android. Those android users could just get an iTouch for their Nintendo games (or an iPhone).

I'm saying that those 14m people would likely buy a Nintendo smartphone just so they can continue playing Pokemon, alone.

No, about 13m of the 14m are going to wait for reality to set in and Pokemon becomes available, in some form, on the iPhone and Android platform.

now this is the real question. Why can't Nintendo just give up the hardware ghost and just publish on iOS and/or Android app stores?

Just think...if those 14m are willing to give up their phone for a Nintendo phone, then SURELY they are also willing to pay $20, $30, $50 for those apps in their app stores.

This route makes a lot more sense than Nintendo trying to do phones. Even if they just went iOS and ignored Android. Those android users could just get an iTouch for their Nintendo games (or an iPhone).

Trust me, Nintendo will license Mario and co. to Apple sooner rather than later. Nintendo is all about casual gaming, which today simply means you end up going up against Apple. We already know how this story ends.

Nintendo hasn't yet capitulated because until now their strategy has worked. The question then is which of the two strategies is better:1) Nintendo SW on third party smartphones2) Nintendo SW on Nintendo smartphones

1 << 2 unless Nintendo fails at making smartphones, ergo Nintendo will make smartphones before they start releasing their software on iOS and Android.

ZeroZanzibar wrote:

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So likely $100-200 with a contract. versus $100-200 with no contract. And I tell you again, parents don't want to drop that kind of cash on their young kids.

And when the kid breaks the phone, you end up paying "full retail" which is more like what, 300 or 400 bucks? Whatever the carrier can get away with anyway.

Yes. The same problem exists today when anyone's smartphone breaks and they have to get either replaced or repaired.

I mentioned it on the other thread but I think it's worth discussing here. I think 5 inch budget phones are going to explode in popularity in the next year or two. For example there is a Chinese phone which has been rebranded in the Phillipines as the MyPhone A919 and in India as the Micromax A110 which sells for $200 without subsidies. Here is an unboxing and review. It has a pretty decent screen and is quite smooth. I think it's incredible value for money and this and similar devices will flood the market in the next few years. I wonder if such phones will be sold in rich countries. I could imagine a lot of people buying it for their kids and it could really boost smartphone penetration among low-income families too.

Nintendo hasn't yet capitulated because until now their strategy has worked. The question then is which of the two strategies is better:1) Nintendo SW on third party smartphones2) Nintendo SW on Nintendo smartphones

1 << 2 unless Nintendo fails at making smartphones, ergo Nintendo will make smartphones before they start releasing their software on iOS and Android.

Not really. If they fuck around and lose fans by do route #2, when they do switch they likely won't get them back.

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Yes. The same problem exists today when anyone's smartphone breaks and they have to get either replaced or repaired.

But NOT the same as today when they break their DS or 3DS and you are only out $100-160.

We're comparing kids with $300 smartphones vs kids with $300 3DSphones. Cost of replacement is the same regardless.

For the kids who won't be getting a smartphone then they will still be using the $169 3DS.

So the issue boils down to Nintendo SW on Nintendo smartphones (executed as well as Nintendo normally does) vs Nintendo SW on iPhones (and therefore eliminating their entire catalog of dual screen games, which are their most successful games ever).

I'm aware that my logic is tenuous; I am being an armchair quarterback, and not only that have a vested interest in the outcome not unlike WHM and LotD or countless xMac proponents.