The American Embassy in
Prague is financing a new project aimed at promoting Islam in public
elementary and secondary schools across the Czech Republic.
The new law removes the requirement that there must be a special
reason to sue for defamation or insult. Swedish thought police will be
able to prosecute anyone who expresses an opinion about Muslim
immigration and much else if that opinion is deemed to be defamation or
slander. The Swedish government is also spending 60 million krona ($9
million) to boost voter turnout in Muslim neighborhoods.
"The influx of immigrants is reaching biblical proportions. Italy is
fighting a losing battle." — Admiral Giuseppe De Giorgi, Head of the
Italian Navy

Before
and After: Left, German rapper Denis Cuspert in 2005, then known as
"Deso Dogg". Right, Cuspert as jihadist in Syria, in 2013, operating
under the alias "Abu Talha Al-Almani" [Abu Talha the German]. (Image
sources: Wikimedia Commons, ISIS)

In Austria, police
say they believe that two teenage girls who vanished from their homes in
the capital of Vienna on April 10 may be in Turkey, and that whoever
helped them get there is using them as pin-up girls to boost recruitment
efforts for the "holy war" in Syria.

Friends
of Samra Kesinovic, 16, and Sabina Selimovic, 15, said the girls had
become radicalized after attending a local mosque run by a Salafist
preacher, Ebu Tejma, and learning about the duty of every Muslim to
participate in jihad. The girls were expelled from school after
inscribing "I Love Al-Qaeda" on tables and walls.

But
the girls' parents—originally Bosnian refugees who settled in Austria
after the ethnic conflicts of the 1990s—say that messages and
photographs posted on social media networks which claim that the girls
are on the front line and fighting with their new husbands are fake.

martes, abril 30, 2013

With America battling the threat of Islamist terrorism from within, Europe is experiencing a dangerous phenomenon of its own: exporting of Islamism from Europe to the Middle East. According to the Associated Press, European mayors are now attempting to limit the travel of their citizens to Syria to fight “holy war” against the Assad regime in Syria. The AP reports: “Through much of western Europe, scores of Islamic youths have heeded the call to take up arms for a cause that is only a few hours away by plane. The phenomenon has alarmed authorities amid signs that the insurgency is becoming increasingly radicalized, with strong infiltration by al-Qaida.”

The lack of integration of many young Muslims into Western countries has created the threat of domestic-based terrorism inside Europe. Now, that terrorism may be exported elsewhere. The United States has already dealt with American immigrants fighting on behalf of Al-Qaeda in Somalia. For years, the FBI has been trying to unlock the secrets of what ABC News describes as “a recruiting pipeline from the Twin Cities, which boast large Somali immigrant problems, to Somalia.” Similar phenomena have been described with regard to terrorists originating in Western countries traveling to Iraq and Afghanistan, as well.

In order to prevent the same sorts of activity in Belgium, Belgian officials have participated in an anti-terror sweep designed to arrest potential terrorists wanting to travel to Syria. In Brussel, a mayor banned a Muslim soup kitchen he felt was recruiting angry young Muslims to Syria.

Just as importantly, Europol, the European police agency, says that fighters who return from foreign countries after participating in terrorism “have the potential to utilize their training, combat experience, knowledge and contacts for terrorist activities inside the EU.” After America’s experiences with the Chechnyan-visiting Tamerlan Tsarnaev, Europe is deeply concerned about something similar happening on its own soil.

The European hard left is attempting to stop European authorities from shutting down such travel, however. Jos Vander Velpen, chairman of the Belgian League of Human Rights, says “We are talking about views that these youngsters hold, and you cannot change opinions with a repressive approach.” That was precisely the attitude taken by the authorities with regard to the Tsarnaevs.

There’s been a lot of discussion within some in the media regarding
the demographic changes taking place in Europe. But those of us who’ve
travelled there have observed it firsthand: namely, the decreased
birthrate among Europeans compared to the enormous birthrate increase
among Muslim immigrants.

Overall, the birthrate across the continent is far below the replacement
level of 2.1 children per couple. Italy, Spain, Austria, and Germany
have a fertility rate of only 1.4, while Poland and Russia languish at
1.3 and 1.2, respectively.

However, as a subgroup, Muslims in Europe are producing from 4 to 6
children per couple. Encouraged by some sheiks in Muslim countries who
have forbidden the use of birth control, Muslim immigrants are producing
children at two to three times the rate of Europeans.

Even Muslims in Europe who came from more westernized Islamic countries,
like Turkey and Tunisia, have twice the birthrate of other Europeans.
And the rate among their second generations is holding to that factor.

There are many projections as to when the Muslim population will gain a
majority in Europe. Some say it could be as soon as 2025. Others as late
as 2050.

Regardless of when Muslims become the majority in Europe, that turning
point will present one of the greatest ironies in 1,400 years of
European history.

Ever since Islamic expansion under Caliphates Umar and Usman, Muslims
have tried again and again to invade and defeat Europe. But they failed.

The Ottomans got the closest; in fact, as close as Austria. But
ultimately, that attempt and all others were unsuccessful. Until now. As
Sheik Yousef Quardawi has been quoted to have said: “What our forbears
failed to do by the sword, this generation is accomplishing through
legitimate birthright, immigration, and petro-dollars.”

It’s impossible to predict whether radicals or more westernized elements
will dominate the coming generation of majority Muslims. Certainly the
current push for Sharia implementation in many European countries,
including England, presents a foreboding omen.

That news doesn’t bode well for atheists, agnostics, and secular humanists. At least Christians and Jews will be treated as demis, or second-class citizens. But the Sharia will have no such leniency for out and out non-believers.

What will happen to the gospel of “tolerance” that secular forces preach
today? Although purveyors of that gospel are, in reality, the most
intolerant of all, that won’t matter. “Tolerance” is used to give
Islamists a foothold in the West, and then the proselytizers of that
gospel will be swept into the dustbin of Islamic intolerance.

As a believer whose permanent home is in Heaven with Christ, I grieve
over those who are being led away from His incredible love. Jesus is
reaching out to them through Christian believers; He longs for them to
turn to Him before it is too late.

miércoles, octubre 24, 2012

In spite of years of harsh spending cuts and tax increases, Europe's debt problems are getting worse.

Figures from the EU's statistics office Wednesday showed that, at the end of the second quarter, the total government debt of the 17 countries that use the single currency was worth 90 per cent of the group's total economic output for the year — the highest level since the euro was launched in 1999.

The rise from the previous quarter's debt to gross domestic product ratio of 88.2 per cent, and the previous year's equivalent of 87.1 per cent, is a result of the eurozone's economic problems — which are making it harder for countries to handle their debts.

"The euro area economy remains stuck in a rut," said James Ashley, senior European economist at RBC Capital Markets.

According to Eurostat five of the countries that use the euro are in recession — Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Cyprus. Many analysts expect the eurozone to slip back into recession in the third quarter of the year when official figures are published next month. A recession is technically defined as two quarters of negative growth in a row.

Other figures Wednesday pointed to a deepening economic crisis in the eurozone. The purchasing managers' index — a gauge of business activity — from financial information company Markit fell from the previous month's 46.1 to 45.8 in October — its lowest level in more than three years. Any figure below 50 indicates a contraction in activity.

German business confidence slips

Meanwhile, a closely watched survey from the Ifo Institute found business confidence in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, confounded expectations of a modest increase and dropped for the sixth month in a row. Ifo's key figure for October dropped to 100 from 101.4 in September.

Germany has been the main reason why the eurozone has not fallen into recession. The country's powerhouse exporters, such as Volkswagen and BMW, have taken a slice of rising trade volumes around the world while its consumers have shown an increasing appetite to spend. However, the country's economy has recently lost its momentum as the debt troubles on its doorstep have weighed on economic confidence. More on CBC >>

lunes, octubre 15, 2012

Coming on the heels of the European Union being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize is the news that Switzerland is preparing its military to respond to possible escalations of violence related to the Euro crisis. "I can’t exclude that in the coming years we may need the army," Switzerland’s defense minister, Ueli Maurer was quoted as saying. NBC News also reported Maurer questioned how long “money alone” could quell the crisis. The Swiss Defense Ministry is not ruling out deploying troops:

“It's not excluded that the consequences of the financial crisis in Switzerland can lead to protests and violence,” a spokesperson told CNBC.com. “The army must be ready when the police in such cases requests for subsidiary help.”

It doesn’t appear that the Swiss are taking this as a too-far-removed possibility:

It launched the military exercise “Stabilo Due” in September to respond to the current instability in Europe and to test the speed at which its army can be dispatched. The country is not a member of the union or among the 17 countries that share the euro.

Swiss newspaper Der Sonntag reported recently that the exercise centered around a risk map created in 2010, where army staff detailed the threat of internal unrest between warring factions as well as the possibility of refugees from Greece, Spain, Italy, France, and Portugal.

Switzerland, which did not join the United Nations until 2002, by a referendum that only narrowly passed, has not been in a state of war since the Treaty of Paris in 1815, a treaty predating even some of the modern nation-states now in crisis in the European Union, which the Swiss also have no plans to join. In his foreign policy address last week, Mitt Romney ruled out the possibility of war in Europe thanks to the Marshall plan. Reason’s Matthew Feeney pointed out Romney’s right, even if only because few countries in Europe are even capable of waging a war. Whether they’re capable of resolving their crisis except through “money alone” remains an open question, as Switzerland’s maneuvers highlight.

The global financial crisis and its European aftermath have created, in effect, a major stress test for democracy in the ten post-communist countries of the European Union. The good news is that a majority of the “EU-10” nations have passed the test, some with flying colors. The bad news is that Hungary, one of the early front-runners of democratic transition, has so far failed the test—with potentially ominous consequences—and that three others have so far rated only a weak “pass” on the political side despite their positive economic results.

When the economic crisis began in 2008, many observers feared that the looming trauma might devastate these ten fledgling democracies just recently admitted to EU membership. Now, four years into the crisis, nine of the countries in question (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovenia) have for the most part done remarkably well on the economic portion of the stress test, particularly considering the relative newness of their democracies and of their market economies.

All nine have regained their financial viability and restored economic growth. Their success stands in sharp contrast to the southern tier of the EU: Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, even though these four countries have much longer-established democracies. This accomplishment is all the more striking in that most of the EU-10 nations initially faced sharper and deeper recessions than did their Western European counterparts.

On the political side, it is also striking that a solid majority of these countries have weathered the crisis without significant damage to their democratic political systems. For six of the ten (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia), the current level of democratic performance, as measured by Freedom House, remains essentially consistent with pre-crisis levels. A couple of them have arguably even strengthened their democracies by virtue of meeting such a major challenge successfully.

Unfortunately, the other three EU-10 countries that did well on the economic side of the stress test (Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria) merit only a mediocre “pass” on the political side. They have since 2007 experienced some slippage of their Freedom House democracy scores, although the erosion has so far proven more limited than many analysts had feared, and all three continue to be rated as democracies. Nevertheless, the situation merits careful monitoring. Given the continuing fragility of these three new democracies, there could be significant regression if the current economic stagnation in the western EU countries continues long enough to create new recessions in September 2012 these three trade- and investment-dependent states.

The one major outlier among the EU-10 is Hungary, which just a few years ago was widely seen as a well-established democracy and market economy. Under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the country has over the past two years experienced an ominous undermining of its democratic institutions. Hungary now faces a significant threat of return to autocratic rule. Taking advantage of the strong electoral mandate that he received in the 2010 elections, Orban has consolidated power in his own hands to an unprecedented degree. And he has used his 67 percent “constitutional majority” in the parliament to take numerous autocratic initiatives that threaten to severely undercut key Hungarian democratic institutions.

Hungary has also done poorly on the economic aspects of the stress test. The country’s finances and growth were by far the weakest among the EU-10 as of 2007, and its performance in re-establishing financial viability and economic growth remain sub-par for the region. Orban has focused more on maneuvering in what he sees as his own short-term political interest than on making difficult but necessary economic reforms.

On the political front, Orban has backed away from or watered down a few of his autocratic measures thanks to considerable pressure from the EU, the IMF and others. However, a great majority of these measures remain in place and could threaten the integrity of Hungary’s next elections, which are due in 2014. Thus, the next two years could prove a make-or-break challenge for Hungarian democracy. (For a fuller discussion of the situation in Hungary, go to the Project on Democratic Transitions page on the FPRI website, at http://www.democratictransitions.net/hungary.)

The following table highlights the economic impact of the crisis in each of the EU-10 countries:

TABLE I

EU-10 GDP Growth

2000-2005 Avg

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Slovenia

3.6

5.5

6.3

3.4

-8.8

0.9

1.8

-1.4

Estonia

8.8

10.8

7.1

-5

-13.9

3.1

6.5

1.6

Latvia

8.7

12.8

10.6

-3.8

-17.5

0.4

4

2.2

Poland

3.5

6.3

6.8

5.1

1.5

3.9

3.8

2.7

Czech Rep.

3.8

6.5

5.5

1.6

-4.7

2

2

0

Lithuania

7.6

8.5

10.4

3.5

-14.3

2.9

6

2.4

Slovakia

4.4

8.3

10.4

5.7

-5.1

4

3.2

1.8

Hungary

4.4

4.1

0.3

1.1

-6.7

1.5

1.8

-0.3

Bulgaria

6.5

7.1

6.9

6.7

-5

0.9

2.5

0.5

Romania

5.8

8.1

6.2

9.6

-8.4

1.1

1.5

1.4

Table II below shows the overall pattern of EU-10 political evolution from pre-crisis levels to the present, as measured by Freedom House:

Table II

Freedom House Democracy Scores

EU 10

2012

2006

Change*

Slovenia

1.89

1.75

-0.14

Estonia

1.93

1.96

0.03

Latvia

2.11

2.07

-0.04

Poland

2.14

2.14

0.00

Czech Republic

2.18

2.25

0.07

Lithuania

2.29

2.21

-0.08

Slovakia

2.50

1.96

-0.54

Hungary

2.86

2.00

-0.86

Bulgaria

3.14

2.93

-0.21

Romania

3.43

3.39

-0.04

*The “Change” column uses negative numbers to represent a decline in scores, and positive numbers represent an improvement for ease of interpretation. Technically, the Freedom House scoring system uses lower numbers to categorize more democratic systems, and thus a higher numerical score connote deterioration, but it was felt that using a “plus” sign to denote deterioration in the above chart could lead to confusion. In the FH approach, scores between 1.00 and 2.99 classify a country as a “Consolidated Democracy” and scores between 3.00 and 3.99 define a “Semi-consolidated Democracy.” Scores from 4.00 to 7:00 correspond to Hybrid, Semi-Authoritarian, and Authoritarian regimes, respectively.

Success Factors for Passing the Stress Test

While many factors have influenced both economic and political outcomes in the EU-10 countries over these past four years, here are some of the main drivers that appear to explain the successful outcomes (or, in the case of Hungary, regression):

In general, the EU-10 states with more strongly embedded democratic institutions demonstrated a higher capacity for effective policy-making and implementation in confronting the economic crisis. Thus, with the exception of Hungary, higher levels of pre-crisis democratic consolidation largely correlated with more effective handling of the economic crisis per se.

States with higher pre-crisis democratic institutions generally experienced either no damage or only minimal damage to their democracy scores, even in the Baltic countries, where the impact of the economic crisis was most severe. Again, the exception is Hungary, although Slovakia also deviated somewhat from the general pattern, as described below.

Individual leaders made a major difference in several countries. Some of the best results involved strong, assertive leaders with a solid commitment to democracy and a penchant for courageous behavior (e. g., Prime Ministers Ansip of Estonia, Kubilius of Lithuania and Radičova of Slovakia, and President Zalters of Latvia). In Hungary, Viktor Orban has also made a major difference politically, albeit in this case on the negative side.

The leverage that attaches to external financial assistance, along with additional political pressures from the EU, were important factors for success on both the economic and political fronts. Brussels, often working in tandem with the IMF, the EBRD and the World Bank, provided critical financial support, strong economic policy advice and, in some cases, political suasion. And the EU/IFI framework also provided political cover for needed reforms as well as greater security for investors, both foreign and domestic.

Political, strategic and cultural linkages to the West were also significant factors favoring positive political performance. In most of these countries, the widespread public desire to be a part of the West was a strong factor favoring democracy. Again, Hungary is the exception. However, the power of this linkage appears to decline as one moves away from the EU core and from Scandinavia (with whom the northern tier of the EU-10 have close ties). The measures of democratic performance decline as one moves southeast. They are particularly weak for Romania and Bulgaria, two countries with arguably lesser linkages to the West than those enjoyed by the other new post-communist EU members.

Policy Implications

It is encouraging that a majority of the EU-10 nations remain well inside the democratic camp despite the severe economic challenges of the past four years. However, there are certainly no grounds for complacency. Three of the ten (Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria) currently show significant shortfalls in their democratic performance, despite their membership in the EU, NATO and other Western organizations. This should be a matter of serious concern in both Brussels and Washington.

Hungary’s rapid regression—from having been one of the post-communist transition’s earliest success stories, to now being on the verge of sliding back into the group of semi-consolidated democracies—is highly worrisome. The Hungarian case shows that even a full generation of post-communist transformation and a high degree of economic integration with the West are not enough to ensure that democracy advances to the point of virtual irreversibility. It also demonstrates how much damage can be done by one strong-minded leader—in this case Viktor Orban—who combines strong demagogic political appeal with autocratic personal tendencies. It is thus imperative for the U.S. and the EU to employ maximum leverage and diplomatic skill to maneuver Hungary back onto the path of democratic consolidation.

Romania and Bulgaria also remain worrisome. While they have handled the economic crisis reasonably well and—in contrast with Hungary—have regressed only marginally in their democratic performance, they remain democratic laggards. The concern is based not on their minor political regression since the economic crisis, but rather on the low levels of democratic consolidation that they had achieved before the crisis. Although some of the foundation-stones of democracy in these two countries remain in place (such as a relatively free electoral process and an active civil society), their governance structures are still highly deficient. Both countries suffer from pervasive corruption, politically-manipulated media, and political leaders who see government primarily as a spoils system for their own benefit.

Both Romania and Bulgaria are thus far from meeting the democratic standards to which their governments professed a commitment at the time of their EU accession in 2007. In retrospect, it is clear that their accession was based more on promises than on actual achievements. Although the economic crisis that struck them in 2009 fortunately did not result in a significant setback to democracy, neither did the promised and much-needed political progress materialize. Both countries still have the potential to become consolidated democracies, but getting them there will require tough-minded and persistent pressure from Brussels, Washington and other Western powers.

Slovakia is the one other country among the EU-10 that merits some extra attention. As of 2004, Slovakia had joined the ranks of front-runners in terms of post-communist economic and political reform. However, as detailed in the PDT Country Report, Slovakia experienced significant democratic erosion from 2006 to 2010. A coalition government led by Social Democrat Robert Fico, but beholden to two smaller xenophobic and undemocratic parties, undercut some of the exemplary reforms that had been put in place over the previous eight years. However, the center-right government of Iveta Radičova that followed Fico quickly re-instituted the same reform agenda that had made Slovakia a front-runner when a similar coalition ruled in the 1998-2006 period.

Through political maneuvering related to the Euro-crisis, Fico was able to force early elections, and he once again became Prime Minister as of March 2012. This time, however, he has an absolute Social Democratic majority in parliament and is thus no longer burdened with his former unsavory coalition partners. Given Fico’s desire for respectability in Brussels and for the material benefits that the European Union can provide to new members in good standing, there is reason to hope that Slovakia’s status as a consolidated democracy will be re-affirmed. However, the situation merits careful vigilance by Brussels and by Washington, along with a willingness to use all available leverage if needed.

Conclusion

With much of Western Europe once again either in recession or virtually stagnant, and with the euro crisis still not fully resolved, the EU-10 countries are faced with the prospect of at best slow economic growth in 2012 and a possible recession in 2013. This, in turn, would translate into new stresses on their political systems. Although a majority of these young democracies have so far proved more resilient than many had feared, the Hungarian case shows that they are far from invulnerable.

At the end of the long and costly Cold War the United States and its NATO allies, in close partnership with the EU, made extraordinary—and extraordinarily successful—investments aimed at democratizing post-communist Europe. Despite the spectacular gains of the 1989-2004 period, developments over the past few years mean that the task is not yet fully completed. The recent regression of Hungary and the remaining democracy deficits in Romania and Bulgaria instead make it clear that some of the early successes could still unravel.

Washington and Brussels should therefore work together to finish the job and to consolidate these historic advances in building democracy and viable market economies. The alternative would be to permit, through neglect, a broadening of the regression that we have seen recently in Hungary, not to mention Ukraine, Belarus and all too many of the other post-Soviet states.

Europa is being tipped to spend nearly $14 billion over the next 10 years on research and development of unmanned aerial systems and their procurement.

About $8.7 billion of that amount will be spent on R&D efforts, while about $5 billion will be for procurement. However, despite strides in developing its own unmanned aerial systems, much of the aircraft procured will come from outside the continent.

The predictions are part of a larger overall analysis of the UAS market worldwide by Forecast International, a U.S. market intelligence and analysis firm serving the defense, aerospace and security industries as well as government and military organization. More >>

domingo, septiembre 23, 2012

September has been a good month for the euro-zone. Mario Draghi committed the ECB to buy unlimited amounts of sovereign bonds of troubled euro-zone countries. There are realistic plans for joint banking supervision. The German constitutional court backed the European Stability Mechanism (albeit with some reservations). And Dutch elections reaffirmed voters’ support for pro-Europe parties. There is a collective sigh of relief in Europe and around the world. European markets are rallying, and Spanish bond yields have already dropped and are expected to drop further in another auction on September 20.

So is Europe saved?

We think not. The problems underlying the European crisis were institutional. What we are seeing now are mostly short-term fixes, not true solutions to these institutional problems.

The roots of the crisis lie in the difficulty of operating a currency union without centralized fiscal authority. But that’s not all. The problem was made worse by implicit guarantees to markets concerning the sovereign debt of all euro-zone countries, which enabled Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain to borrow at sharply lower rates than before. This then enabled the dysfunctional political economy in Greece, Italy and Portugal (and to some degree in Spain) to persist with borrowed money and transfers.

This is not to deny the role of the global recession in triggering the fiscal problems or the fear of contagion that increased the borrowing costs of Italy and Spain, plunging these countries into a more severe macroeconomic crisis. It is certainly not to deny that austerity measures have been counterproductive or that with the ECB balance sheet behind them, these countries and their banks will have some breathing room.

But the point remains that Europe’s underlying problems cannot be tackled by short-term fixes. For the euro to survive and contribute to European economic prosperity in the medium term, Europe needs to follow the example of the United States as it transitioned from the Articles of Confederation of 1781 to the U.S. Constitution, which entailed strengthening the currency union with debt renegotiation (with the federal government assuming state liabilities) and more importantly, meaningful fiscal centralization.

And yet, there is no realistic plan for true fiscal centralization in Europe. Fiscal centralization doesn’t just mean better monitoring Greece’s austerity plans. It means a European organization with the power to set taxes and harmonize labor, product and credit market institutions. But this is not possible without some centralization of political and military power. It was crucial that with the U.S. Constitution, political and military power shifted to the federal government.

This is not on the cards for Europe, not least because Greece or France or Spain wouldn’t accept the shift of economic, political and military power to Germany that this would entail. So for the time being, we have to make do with short-term fixes, and in all likelihood, Europe isn’t saved just yet.

martes, septiembre 04, 2012

Two years after eurozone began its downward financial spiral, the European Central Bank is about to unveil a widely-anticipated plan to pump more money into the system to stem a wider collapse.

But the plan, similar to the massive bond-buying undertaken by U.S. central bankers four years ago, may be too little, too late.

“It’s going to take a lot more than a few rate cuts here and there to give us a lift,” said Peter Dixon, a senior economist at Commerzbank Securities. “Monetary policy is effectively running out of options.”

Europe is also running out of time. Manufacturing across the continent contracted faster than previously thought last month, according to the latest data released Monday. The recession sparked by a crushing debt hangover in a few smaller members of the 17-nation bloc is now sweeping through Germany and France. The financial turmoil that sank Greece as investors and depositors fled now threatens the much larger economies of Spain and Italy.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi bought some time last month, calming markets somewhat with a pledge to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro. Now, he has to deliver. On Thursday, the ECB is set to unveil details of a new bond-buying plan that has re-opened long-standing fault lines in Europe’s experiment with a common currency.

“You have the troubled nations -- Portugal, Italy Spain, Greece -- all lined up in one corner and you have the funding nations with capital -- Germany, Austria, Finland, the Netherlands -- lined up in the other corner,” said Mark Grant, an investment banker at Southwest Securities. “It’s going to be a very bloody battle on who gets what capital and in what form and how much.”

martes, agosto 28, 2012

Polish national strategy pivots around a single, existential
issue: how to preserve its national identity and independence. Located on
the oft-invaded North European Plain, Poland's existence is heavily susceptible
to the moves of major Eurasian powers. Therefore, Polish history has
been erratic, with Poland moving from independence -- even regional dominance
-- to simply disappearing from the map, surviving only in language and memory
before emerging once again.

For some countries, geopolitics is a marginal issue. Win or lose, life
goes on. But for Poland, geopolitics is an existential issue; losing
begets national catastrophe. Therefore, Poland's national strategy
inevitably is designed with an underlying sense of fear and desperation.
Nothing in Polish history would indicate that disaster is impossible. More »

viernes, junio 29, 2012

The couple, the parents of two teenagers, put their organs up for sale on a local online classified site six months ago after Mr. Mircov, 50, lost his job at a meat factory here. He has not been able to find any work, he said, so he has grown desperate. When his father recently died, Mr. Mircov could not afford a tombstone. The telephone service has been cut off. One meal a day of bread and salami is the family’s only extravagance.

“When you need to put food on the table, selling a kidney doesn’t seem like much of a sacrifice,” Mr. Mircov said.

Facing grinding poverty, some Europeans are seeking to sell their kidneys, lungs, bone marrow or corneas, experts say. This phenomenon is relatively new in Serbia, a nation that has been battered by war and is grappling with the financial crisis that has swept the Continent. The spread of illegal organ sales into Europe, where they are gaining momentum, has been abetted by the Internet, a global shortage of organs for transplants and, in some cases, unscrupulous traffickers ready to exploit the economic misery.

$250K for lungs In Spain, Italy, Greece and Russia, advertisements by people peddling organs — as well as hair, sperm and breast milk — have turned up on the Internet, with asking prices for lungs as high as $250,000. In late May, the Israeli police detained 10 members of an international crime ring suspected of organ trafficking in Europe, European Union law enforcement officials said. The officials said the suspects had targeted impoverished people in Moldova, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. More >>

domingo, junio 17, 2012

Updated at 4:49 p.m. ET: ATHENS -﻿ The pro-bailout New Democracy party came in first Sunday in Greece's national election, and its leader has proposed forming a pro-euro coalition government.

"The Greek people voted today to stay on the European course and remain in the euro zone... there will be no more adventures, Greece's place in Europe will not be put in doubt," New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras said.

He said voters chose "policies that will bring jobs, growth, justice and security."

His party beat the anti-bailout Syriza party, which wanted to cancel Greece's international bailouts.

Syriza chief Alexis Tsipras conceded the election but vowed to continue its fight against the punishing terms of an EU/IMF bailout saving the country from bankruptcy.

"From Monday, we will continue the fight," Tsipras told supporters. "A new day for Greece has already dawned.

An official projection released by the interior ministry showed conservative New Democracy taking 29.5 percent, with the radical leftist Syriza bloc just behind at 27.1 percent. The PASOK Socialists were set to take 12.3 percent.

Because of a 50-seat bonus given to the party which comes first, that result would give New Democracy and PASOK 161 seats in the 300-seat parliament, in an alliance committed to a 130 billion euro ($164 billion) EU/IMF bailout keeping the country from bankruptcy. More >>

martes, enero 31, 2012

The German government proposed last week that a European commissioner be appointed to supplant the Greek government. While phrasing the German proposal this way might seem extreme, it is not unreasonable. Under the German proposal, this commissioner would hold power over the Greek national budget and taxation. Since the European Central Bank already controls the Greek currency, the euro, this would effectively transfer control of the Greek government to the European Union, since whoever controls a country's government expenditures, tax rates and monetary policy effectively controls that country. The German proposal therefore would suspend Greek sovereignty and the democratic process as the price of financial aid to Greece.

Though the European Commission rejected the proposal, the concept is far from dead, as it flows directly from the logic of the situation. The Greeks are in the midst of a financial crisis that has made Greece unable to repay money Athens borrowed. Their options are to default on the debt or to negotiate a settlement with their creditors. The International Monetary Fund and European Union are managing these negotiations. Read More »

"You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother" - Albert Einstein

"It is inaccurate to say I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office" - H. L. Menken

"I swore never to be silent whenever and wherever human beings endure suffering and humiliation. We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented" -Elie Wiesel

"Stay hungry, stay foolish" - Steve Jobs

"If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert , in five years ther'ed be a shortage of sand" - Milton Friedman

"The tragedy of modern man is not that he knows less and less about the meaning of his own life, but that it bothers him less and less" - Vaclav Havel