Twitter results will beat estimates?

Analysts see 4Q13 results beating consensus estimates, which call for total revenue growth of 94% Y/Y, and EBITDA of $23m (+30% Y/Y), as expectations appear too conservative. Although analysts are unsure if management will provide forward guidance, they expect near-term earnings revisions to move estimates higher. Analysts’ estimates call for total revenue of $210m and EBITDA of $12m (5.8% margin), and for ad revenue of $197m to grow 98% Y/Y (US 71% of total, +77% Y/Y). They look for WW ad revenue per thousand timeline views of $1.15 (+36% Y/Y) on 171b total timeline views (+46% Y/Y), and look for US ad revenue per thousand timeline views of about $3 (+38% Y/Y) on about 46b US timeline views (+28% Y/Y, 27% of total timeline views).

Twitter’s conference call key points

Key Questions for the call: (1) How successful has Amplify been to-date and what are management’s goals to further disrupt TV ad budgets; (2) How has MoPub been integrated into Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR)’s overall advertising strategy? What are Twitter’s long-term plans for MoPub?; (3) How does Twitter plan to accelerate user growth and make Twitter more mainstream?