Varcoe: Welcome to the oilsands, Mr. Trudeau. Now, about that pipeline

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Canadian Coast Guard members aboard the Sir Wilfrid Laurier to discuss marine safety and spill prevention, in Victoria on Thursday.Chad Hipolito / THE CANADIAN PRESS

Moving from the frying pan to the fire, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heads to the centre of the oilsands Friday, fresh off a trip to British Columbia, ground zero for Canada’s anti-pipeline movement.

His meetings in Fort McMurray, which include a face-to-face meeting with eight oilpatch CEOs, will have a distinctly different tone, but I suspect the questions will be fairly similar.

So, prime minister, what the heck is going on with building that pipeline?

The pipeline, of course, is Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion, a $7.4-billion project that has become much more than just a piece of energy infrastructure.

It’s turned into an emblem, of sorts, to parties on both sides of the country’s pipeline divide.

To British Columbians protesting the project and being arrested in the Lower Mainland, the line represents an existential threat to the coastline because of the increased tanker traffic it will generate.

To most Albertans, it’s become a litmus test of Trudeau’s resolve to back the oilpatch and the thousands of people who toil in the industry.

The project will triple the amount of oil that can be shipped from the Edmonton area to the Pacific coast, creating billions of dollars in new investment, higher royalties and taxes in Alberta, along with jobs.

“I am sure he will be asked about it. It’s been a big issue, a hot-button issue,” said Alexis Foster, executive director of the Fort McMurray Chamber of Commerce.

“It is definitely on the top of everyone’s minds.”

The prime minister’s one-day trip to the oilsands includes a tour of Suncor Energy’s new $17-billion Fort Hills oilsands development. Trudeau will meet with regional Indigenous leaders, as well as Fort McMurray region’s Mayor Don Scott.

Issues such as rural homelessness and efforts to rebuild the region from the 2016 wildfires will be discussed. But oilsands and pipelines will inevitably come up.

“A lot of people are going to ask about the progress on pipelines. It’s something I hear a lot about in the community,” said Scott, a former provincial cabinet minister.

“We want to see people working. We see it as a big economic benefit, not only to the local residents but to Alberta residents and to Canada.”

With the heavy hitters in the room, he’ll get a clear sense of what keeps oilpatch leaders up at night.

They will question him about concerns surrounding the Canadian industry falling behind the United States, where companies are busy increasing production, cranking up investment and building infrastructure.

Meanwhile, capital spending in the Canadian oilpatch is projected to fall by 12 per cent this year, the fourth consecutive year of decline.

Officials with Imperial, Husky and Encana all said competitiveness issues will be a focus of Friday’s discussion.

“If we look at where capital is flowing globally, it is going to the U.S., it’s going to Brazil, it’s going to the Middle East,” said Tim McMillan, CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

“The competitiveness gap is getting wider today.”

The CEOs will also likely voice concerns about the federal government’s overhaul of the approval process for new energy projects contained in Bill C-69.

But market access and new pipelines are unavoidable. The topic won’t be put to rest until the Trans Mountain expansion is completed, sometime in late 2020, pending outstanding legal challenges.

Trudeau will be joined at the meetings by Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr and Infrastructure Minister Amarjeet Sohi.

So what will the prime minister say to the gathering in Alberta? Likely the same thing he uttered in Victoria on Thursday afternoon.

“This project will be safe, jobs will be created and this pipeline will be built,” Trudeau told reporters.

“My message today and tomorrow is the same: that we need to build a strong economy and protect the environment at the same time.”

There are still many skeptics who don’t believe the federal Liberal government will put its full weight behind oil pipelines when it matters the most.

They wonder what will happen when the next federal election draws near and Trudeau needs to protect Liberal seats in B.C.

Many haven’t forgotten the prime minister’s comments in January 2017 about the need to “phase out” the oilsands as Canada manages its transition away from using fossil fuels.

In Fort McMurray, the questions have a direct bearing on the future of the sector and the region.

Without new pipelines, producers face the prospect of getting a lower return for their oil, and will have less money to reinvest, and to grow production and employment.

Last year, the oilsands were responsible for 223,000 direct and indirect jobs across the country.

“It’s such an important resource to all of Canada and we want to make sure he understands the importance of it,” said Foster.

“It is really the prime minister’s role to step in and be vocal about this.”

In other words, full-throated support is the only acceptable response for Alberta until the last piece of pipe goes into the ground on Trans Mountain.

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