I Say - Jack Krupansky

My personal opinions, random rants, and perspectives

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Made my 23rd payment to pay down the public debt of the U.S. government

I just made my 23rd monthly payment to pay down the public debt of the U.S. government. It wasn't a large payment, just another $25, but it is a matter of principle, albeit mostly symbolic. It may take me another 51 billion years to pay it all down all by myself at this rate (and assuming the deficit went to zero immediately), but, as I said, it is a matter of principle and a sense of personal responsibility. It is our debt, not somebody else's.

According to the U.S. Treasury web site, the total public debt outstanding was $15,051,673,595,197.90, as of November 28, 2011, an increase of about $111 billion over 39 days or $2.9 billion a day. This is an annualized run rate of $1.042 trillion, our effective annual deficit at this point.

Here is what I wrote back in January 2010 when I made my first donation/gift/contribution/payment:

Everybody is whining and complaining about the ballooning debt of the U.S. government, but who is actually doing anything about it? Well, for starters, ME! Yes, that's right, I, Jack Krupansky, just did something to reduce the U.S. government debt. Really. No kidding. I actually paid down a small slice of this debt. Granted, it was a rather small slice, but a slice nonetheless. Okay, sure, it was only $20, but the point is that at least I am one of the very few people willing to stand up and DO something about the problem, rather than be one of the whiners and complainers who refuse to acknowledge that it is their debt and their problem, not just the fault of mindless politicians in Washington, D.C. After all, every politician ultimately answers to voters and most of the so-called wasteful spending of the U.S. government is simply politicians responding to the demands of their constituents (voters.) Maybe my one small contribution to paying down the debt won't really make any difference to any of those whiners and complainers, but for me it is a matter of principle. I consciously choose action rather than the inaction and lack of responsibility of the whiners and complainers.

If you have any sense of principle, you too can pay down a slice of the U.S. government debt yourself at Pay.gov. You can pay via credit card or debit transfer from a bank account.

So do the right thing and show all those whiners and complainers (including so-called "tax protesters") how mindless and spineless they really are. PAY DOWN THE DEBT! And that has to start at the grass roots with us individuals before politicians will ever pick up the lead.

For the record, the only real way out of the deficit is not to merely cut expenditures or raise taxes or some combination of the two, but through economic growth, which includes a healthy amount of immigration in addition to unemployed workers going back to work and young people entering the work force. Sure, we need to manage the federal budget more carefully as well and make difficult choices about the size of government and tax rates, but the big focus has to be on achieving sustainable economic growth. In truth, nobody, including all of the Nobel laureate economists, knows what that sustainable rate really is or how to get there. We'll stumble our way in that general direction. That's the way we do things in America.

Another note: A significant part of the deficit is businesses writing off losses from the financial crisis and recession as tax deductions. That may continue for awhile longer, but will gradually wind down and tax receipts from businesses will begin to pick up in the coming years.

A final note: I may suspend my payment program next month since my current contract work ended six weeks ago. I do have the cash to continue my payment program, but technically, on principle, the loss of primary income is supposed to mean that a person should cut all inessential expenses until there has been a resumption of their primary income. In any case, my public debt payment program will continue in any month that I have enough primary income to pay my rent and basic living expenses. But, I don't expect that to be the case in December, and I expect to be living off savings for some number of months, so my U.S. public debt payment program is now effectively suspended until I line up new work.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Cafe Philo in New York City in two weeks, Thursday, 12/1: How long can Cafe Philo go on?

(Please note the new time: 7:30 PM to 9:00 PM!!)

Cafe Philo in New York City will meet in two weeks, on Thursday, December 1, 2011 for a discussion of the topic "How long can Cafe Philo go on?" It will be good to have a soul-searching discussion of what Café Philo is all about, what it hopes to achieve, and how it relates to the modern world, among other things. Bernard suggested the topic.

The suggested topics for the upcoming meeting and their votes (out of 7 attendees):

Is Zuccotti Park a good thing? (2)

Does the fact that the sun will rise tomorrow assure that it will rise in the future? (3, 2)

Does determinism entail predestination? (2)

Why is it important to say what you mean? (3, 3)

How long can Cafe Philo go on? (3, 4) *

Would dueling be beneficial to society? (2)

Implications of overuse of the word "like." (2)

Can war be a good thing? (2)

I have been acting as guest moderator lately. Bernard Roy has been attending as a participant.

As usual, the meeting will be held from 7:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. in the back room at Bamiyan Afghan Restaurant at the northwest corner of Third Avenue and 26th Street in New York City. In exchange for free meeting space, it is expected that each attendee will purchase a minimum of $5 of food or drink. A glass of red wine can be had for $6 (plus tax and tip.)

After winding down our discussion, we entertain and vote on proposals for the topic question for the next meeting.

There are also usually some attendees who go across the street to McCormack's Pub for drinks and food and extended discussion after Cafe Philo, but not limited to the scheduled discussion topic.

There are a number of small groups in the U.S. and Europe who meet regularly to discuss topics related to philosophy. Some of these groups go by the name "Cafe Philo." There is one here in New York City that meets every two weeks, every other Thursday. It is organized and moderated by Bernard Roy, Associate Professor of Philosophy at Ramapo College of New Jersey. Each meeting focuses on a specific topic which was suggested and voted on by the participants at the last meeting.

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

How can I become a millionaire?

There were actually a couple of short periods of time back in 2000 when I was technically a "millionaire", at least on paper (plus one time when a broker error made me a millionaire for a weekend!) But, as they say, "easy come, easy go." And back in 2005 I was doing so poorly financially that I actually filed for bankruptcy. Since November 30, 2005 (the day my bankruptcy was discharged) I have gradually been slowly climbing back up the lower rungs of the wealth ladder out of the pit of gloom, primarily through regular retirement contributions but also cutting spending and saving when possible, so that now I actually have a modest amount of "investments." I'm certainly not a millionaire or in the top 1% or even the top 10%, but I'm somewhere in the top 20% now. I won't disclose my exact "wealth", but it's very loosely north of $50,000 and south of $250,000, so lets pretend that it is $100,000 for the sake of argument and to have a nice round number. So, the question of the day is:

How can I become a millionaire?

Seriously. It's a legitimate question. How likely I am to become a millionaire again is an open and essentially unanswerable question, but what options or paths to that end are available is a reasonable question.

Here are the practical paths that I have identified in just a few minutes today:

Buy a winning lottery ticket. Hey, sometimes it actually does payoff, but I won't bet on it.

Marry a wealthy woman. Ditto.

Start a successful business. Ditto, except that it actually still is a (semi-remote) possibility.

Join a hot startup. Ditto, but a little more possible. (Seriously, send me leads on this!)

A short string of wildly-successful option trades. Hey, I actually did this in 1998 and 1999, but... a long story... and not likely to be repeated.

Invest in a hot stock that rises 40% a year for 7 years. Technically possible, but the odds remain long.

Investments that rise 20% a year for 13 years. More doable, but still quite difficult.

Investments that rise 15% a year for 17 years. On the fringe of being practical, but too long to wait.

Investments that rise 10% a year for 24 years. Starting to sound within reach technically, but not within reach time-wise.

Investments that rise 8% a year for 30 years. Great, something I might actually have a shot at achieving, but only if my goal is to leave a million in my will rather than enjoy it during retirement.

Investments that rise 5% a year for 48 years. Ditto. I could reasonably expect to do this, but again not for my personal use.

Investments that rise 4% a year for 59 years. That rate of return is reasonable and achievable for an average investor, but won't achieve the end goal within my expected lifetime.

And then there is inflation, taxes, bad years, etc. And presuming that you have a reasonable income stream while your wealth is growing.

And then there is a bigger pair of questions. Once you have accumulated $1 million:

How do you keep it?

How can you live off of it in a sustainable manner?

It may seem obvious that you save $1 million for retirement and then spend it all in retirement, but that is a risky expectation due to uncertainty about the future. Better to define an allocation of money that you will be spending and money that remains dedicated to further investment. That's a topic for future discussion. Here we're just concerned with getting to $1 million (ASAP) in the first place.

Where do I do from here? The only things I can say with certainty are that I will continue making my retirement contributions and hopefully see some compound returns over the years. I guess I can also safely say that unless I manage to achieve 20% annual returns I won't hit $1 million when I retire in 13 years. That is at least a good starting point for thinking about where I am, what I could achieve, and what my options are.

Monday, November 07, 2011

All change is good

"Change" is a mantra thrown about by all activists, but only in a qualified form, such as "Change we can believe in." Well, change doesn't really work that way. Change is an inherent and fundamental force in the natural and manmade world. Accept change or be disappointed. We can't cherry-pick change, adopting the "good" change and rejecting the "bad" change. It's all or... well, it's all, period. My own personal view is that all change is inherently good. In fact, it is the very change that we find least appealing that typically has the most value for us, provided that we manage to effectively exploit that change and not fight it tooth and nail.

To state it simply:

All change is inherently good, especially that change which is least desired.

If it sometimes or even frequently seems that some particular change appears to have little positive value or an excessively negative value, it is most likely true that we have simply not tried hard enough to discover creative ways to exploit that change. Maybe we simply have blinders on or some outdated bias that interferes with our ability to see a path to a better future that exploits that change.

Sunday, November 06, 2011

Wall Street Occupied (by the Dark Knight)

On a typical Saturday I walk all around lower Manhattan (starting my walk from my apartment on East 50th Street), sometimes walking up Wall Street. Since 9/11 Wall Street has had limited access, but usually the sidewalks are open to pedestrian traffic and even the street itself is usually open to pedestrian traffic. Since the Occupy Wall Street movement moved into the neighborhood there have been the usual steel barricades to assure that people stay on the sidewalks. But, this past Saturday (11/5) I walked up Wall Street from the East River and around Water Street or Pearl Street even the side walk was closed with barricades and there were two police cars blocking the street.

Except, the police cars were an odd color of blue and had some strange-looking emblem on the doors. I figured maybe they were for some private security company since some of the banks on Wall Street have intensive security forces. There were no cops near the cars, so I walked up to examine the emblems and they did say "Police Department", but for the "City of Gotham." Ah... that explains it. I had seen some movie production trucks a block earlier. So, this had to be filming of the new "Dark Knight" sequel That had been rumored.

I detoured towards the south of Wall Street and then parallel to Wall Street to get to Broad Street where the New York Stock Exchange is located. They also had Broad Street barricaded, but after a few minutes of looking around I noticed them open up the barricade on the east side of Broad Street and they were letting people through.

Walking north on Broad Street across from the stock exchange I noticed a lot of little piles of fluffy white stuff, which I presume was fake snow.

Crossing over Wall Street in front of the old Morgan bank building I saw a large stream of movie extras entering the building, many of whom were in full, heavy riot gear with body armor and assault rifles. Presumably they had just finished filming on the closed-off portion of Wall Street.

I noticed that all of the usual steel barricades at the intersection of Broad and Wall were gone. I guess they just didn't fit into the movie screenplay. Ironic, that a movie shot with heavy security and street violence would want less security measures visible than what are normally on the street on a typical, uneventful day. Interesting how reality can be stranger than fiction – the old adage that truth can be stranger than fiction since fiction has to make sense.

Just up Nassau Street a half-block (Nassau is the continuation of Broad Street but the name changes at Wall Street!) I saw a movie flyer taped to a pole which detailed access restrictions that day due to filming for "Magnus Rex", mentioning the use of simulated gunfire and assault rifles (and noting that this required careful coordination with NYPD). So, yes, this definitely was probably filming for the new Dark Knight sequel. And, once again, quite ironic how with all of the tenseness and quasi-violence of the nearby Occupy Wall Street encampment (two blocks north and one block west), they would have all of this fictional violence at the same time.

Is fiction mocking reality or is reality mocking fiction?

And, as expected, when I walked along the outside of Zucotti park it was nothing but a kind of calm buzziness not unlike any NYC park – except for the uncontrolled frenzy of the drummers and the spectators egging them on as they approached their 6 PM drumming curfew.

AFAICT, the size of the Zucotti Park "movement" was about the same as in recent weeks. It hasn't managed to spill into surrounding areas and other nearby parks yet and is too packed for much more internal growth. In fact, the Manahatta Park at the East River end of Wall Street is still completely empty except for a few kids on skateboards and those little trick bicycles and with no apparent security guards or policemen to give them any grief. Who knows, maybe Manahatta is simply too far from the limelight of Broadway and the World Trade Center site, even if it is actually on Wall Street. There is also a reasonably large brand new park area across the street on the East River and adjacent to the ferry pier, very underutilized and completely devoid of any occupiers, but unlikely to draw the attention of anybody other than a lot of tourists and odd people like me.

Saturday, November 05, 2011

Cafe Philo in New York City in two weeks, Thursday, 11/17: How do I know that I know?

(Please note the new time: 7:30 PM to 9:00 PM!!)

Cafe Philo in New York City will meet in two weeks, on Thursday, November 17, 2011 for a discussion of the topic "How do I know that I know?" What is the nature of our beliefs, our knowledge? Why do we believe things to be true? How certain are we of what we know? Why are we so certain? How wrong could we be?

The suggested topics for the upcoming meeting and their votes (out of 6 attendees):

Is greed good? (5)

How do I know that I know? (6, 5)

Is their wisdom in crowds? (4)

Where are we going as a Cafe Philo? (6, 3) *

Is it more important to think or to act? (5)

I have been acting as guest moderator lately. Bernard Roy has been attending as a participant.

As usual, the meeting will be held from 7:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. in the back room at Bamiyan Afghan Restaurant at the northwest corner of Third Avenue and 26th Street in New York City. In exchange for free meeting space, it is expected that each attendee will purchase a minimum of $5 of food or drink. A glass of red wine can be had for $6 (plus tax and tip.)

After winding down our discussion, we entertain and vote on proposals for the topic question for the next meeting.

There are also usually some attendees who go across the street to McCormack's Pub for drinks and food and extended discussion after Cafe Philo, but not limited to the scheduled discussion topic.

There are a number of small groups in the U.S. and Europe who meet regularly to discuss topics related to philosophy. Some of these groups go by the name "Cafe Philo." There is one here in New York City that meets every two weeks, every other Thursday. It is organized and moderated by Bernard Roy, Associate Professor of Philosophy at Ramapo College of New Jersey. Each meeting focuses on a specific topic which was suggested and voted on by the participants at the last meeting.

Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Ignoring Occupy Wall Street for the rest of the year

I've followed the whole Occupy Wall Street movement with great interest over the past month, but it is time for me to hit the "ignore" button on them for the rest of the year (at least.) They've gotten repetitive and predictable and don't appear to be likely to do anything truly of long-term interest. Who knows, maybe they'll surprise me and somehow get their act together, but they simply don't appear to be on an upwards trend at this point, in terms of garnering significant additional deeply passionate support from the rest of the so-called 99% that is not already active in the movement. Yeah, sometimes the various unions (a small fraction of Americans all together) join in, but only halfheartedly, like with the so-called "General Strike" in Oakland right now. Sure, things could change at any moment, but I'll make that judgment on January 1, 2012 and determine then whether I can keep them on "ignore."

For now, I'll simply write off OWS as an offshoot of the anti-globalization movement. There's a little more to it than that, but that basically summarizes them quite well.

FWIW, here's how I have been following the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement:

The Adbusters web site. These are the guys/brains/puppet-masters behind the global "Occupy" movement. The "Culture Jammers HQ."

On a typical Saturday on my normal schedule I walk all around lower Manhattan, including Union Square, Washington Square, Battery Park, Battery City Park, the World Trade Center Site, and sometimes Wall Street and even past Zucotti Park, so I am sure I will "notice" if the OWS movement actually does take off. And I regularly walk to, around, and through Central Park on various days of the week as well, so I'll certainly notice if OWS makes good on their "threat" to "occupy Central Park" as they have said they would.

So, if the OWS movement does actually take off, I'll notice it first hand without having to waste another moment of my time reading about it on the Web.