QUARTERLY ESTIMATES FOR SELECTED SERVICE INDUSTRIES 1st QUARTER 2015

Transcription

1 Aidan Smith / Roderick Asekhauno Harold Laney / Rebecca Hutchinson Economic Indicators Division (301) FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE WEDNESDAY, JUNE 10, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT QUARTERLY ESTIMATES FOR SELECTED SERVICE INDUSTRIES 1st QUARTER CB Special Notice: Effective with the March 2016 release, quarterly services estimates will be revised based on the results of the Service Annual Survey and Annual Retail Trade Survey. Investigating Economic Indicator Webinar Series: To learn more about this release and the other indicators the U.S. Census Bureau publishes, join us for the Investigating Economic Indicators Webinar Series. For more information, visit Information The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the estimate of U.S. information sector revenue for the first calendar quarter of, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, was $334.8 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (± 0.6%)* the fourth quarter of and up 3.0 percent (± 0.8%) the first quarter of. Professional, scientific, and technical services The estimate of U.S. professional, scientific, and technical services revenue for the first quarter of, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, was $387.3 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (± 1.7%)* the fourth quarter of and up 5.6 percent (± 2.1%) the first quarter of. Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services The estimate of U.S. administrative and support and waste management and remediation services revenue for the first quarter of, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, was $213.0 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent (± 1.3%) the fourth quarter of and up 6.8 percent (± 2.1%) the first quarter of. Billions of dollars Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Revenue for Selected Services Information, seasonally adjusted 54 - Professional, scientific, and technical services, seasonally adjusted 56 - Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services, seasonally adjusted * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different zero. US. Census Bureau 1

2 QUARTERLY ESTIMATES FOR SELECTED SERVICE INDUSTRIES 1st QUARTER Con. Utilities The estimate of U.S. utilities revenue for the first quarter of, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $154.4 billion, an increase of 9.0 percent (± 1.7%) the fourth quarter of and down 6.1 percent (± 1.3%) the first quarter of. The third quarter of to fourth quarter of percent change was revised -4.2 percent (± 1.5%) to -4.9 percent (± 1.5%). Transportation and warehousing The estimate of U.S. transportation and warehousing revenue for the first quarter of, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $207.4 billion, a decrease of 6.7 percent (± 0.8%) the fourth quarter of and up 2.6 percent (± 2.5%) the first quarter of. The third quarter of to fourth quarter of percent change was revised -1.3 percent (± 0.9%) to -1.4 percent (± 1.1%). Finance and insurance The estimate of U.S. finance and insurance revenue for the first quarter of, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $960.3 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent (± 3.2%)* the fourth quarter of and up 3.7 percent (± 2.8%) the first quarter of. The third quarter of to fourth quarter of percent change was revised 0.8 percent (± 0.9%)* to 0.7 percent (± 0.8%)*. Real estate and rental and leasing The estimate of U.S. real estate and rental and leasing revenue for the first quarter of, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $129.9 billion, a decrease of 6.3 percent (± 0.9%) the fourth quarter of and up 5.7 percent (± 0.9%) the first quarter of. The third quarter of to fourth quarter of percent change was revised 0.1 percent (± 0.8%)* to 0.3 percent (± 0.8%)*. Educational services The estimate of U.S. educational services revenue for the first quarter of, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $16.0 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (± 3.8%)* the fourth quarter of and up 10.4 percent (± 5.7%) the first quarter of. The third quarter of to fourth quarter of percent change was revised 0.1 percent (± 2.7%)* to 0.3 percent (± 2.5%)*. Health care and social assistance The estimate of U.S. health care and social assistance revenue for the first quarter of, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $579.3 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (± 1.1%)* the fourth quarter of and up 7.2 percent (± 1.5%) the first quarter of. The third quarter of to fourth quarter of percent change was not revised 4.2 percent (± 0.6%). Arts, entertainment, and recreation The estimate of U.S. arts, entertainment, and recreation revenue for the first quarter of, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $53.6 billion, a decrease of 7.9 percent (± 2.1%) the fourth quarter of and up 3.1 percent (± 2.3%) the first quarter of. The third quarter of to fourth quarter of percent change was not revised -4.7 percent (± 4.0%). Accommodation The estimate of U.S. accommodation revenue for the first quarter of, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $51.9 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (± 2.1%)* the fourth quarter of and up 5.6 percent (± 1.9%) the first quarter of. The third quarter of to fourth quarter of percent change was revised percent (± 2.5%) to percent (± 2.5%). Other services (except public administration) The estimate of U.S. other services (except public administration) revenue for the first quarter of, not adjusted for seasonal variation, or price changes, was $113.0 billion, a decrease of 11.2 percent (± 2.7%) the fourth quarter of and up 4.3 percent (± 2.8%) the first quarter of. The third quarter of to fourth quarter of percent change was revised 9.8 percent (± 3.6%) to 9.9 percent (± 3.6%). Additional industry detail and estimates of source of revenue, expenses, inpatient days, and discharges can be found at: For survey description, description of seasonal adjustment and an explanation of the reliability of the estimates included in this report, please see the last page of the publication. Second quarter estimates are scheduled to be released on September 9,, at 10:00 A.M. EDT. * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different zero. US. Census Bureau 2

7 Table 1b. Selected Services - Estimated Quarterly Revenue for Employer Firms, Not Seasonally Adjusted [Estimates are not adjusted for seasonal variation or for price changes and are based on data the Quarterly Services Survey. For additional information see code 1 Total revenue (millions of dollars) Percent change Year to date 3Q 2Q 3Q 813 Religious, grantmaking, civic, professional, and similar organizations 13 49,199 63,097 51,419 51,765 47,099 60, ,199 47, Preliminary estimate. Revised estimate. Z Absolute value is less than.05. S Estimate does not meet publication standards because of high sampling variability (coefficient of variation is greater than 30%) or poor response quality (total quantity response rate is less than 50%). Unpublished estimates derived this table by subtraction are subject to these same limitations and should not be attributed to the U.S. Census Bureau. For a description of publication standards and the total quantity response rate, see (1) For a full description of the (North American Industry Classification System) codes used in this table, see the manual or (2) Excludes government owned utilities. (3) Excludes 482 (rail transportation) and 491 (postal service). (4) Includes (book publishers), (directory and mailing list publishers), and (other publishers). (5) Includes 5174 (satellite telecommunications), and 5179 (other telecommunications). (6) Excludes 525 (funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles). (7) Excludes 521 (monetary authorities-central bank) and 525 (funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles). (8) Excludes (offices of notaries). (9) Includes all of 5413 (architectural, engineering, and related services) except (engineering services). (10) Includes 5611 (office administrative services), 5612 (facilities support services), 5614 (business support services), 5616 (investigation and security services), 5617 (services to buildings and dwellings), and 5619 (other support services). (11) Excludes 6111 (elementary and secondary schools), 6112 (junior colleges), and 6113 (colleges, universities, and professional schools). (12) Excludes 8131 (religious organizations), (labor unions and similar labor organizations), (political organizations), and 814 (private households). (13) Excludes 8131 (religious organizations), (labor unions and similar labor organizations), and (political organizations). Note: Estimates cover taxable and tax-exempt firms unless otherwise specified. Additionally, estimates for some sectors and subsectors may include data for kinds of business not shown. Table 2 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Data users who create their own estimates using data this report should cite the U.S. Census Bureau as the source of the original data only. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at For 52, estimates may include unrealized gains (losses). US. Census Bureau 7

10 Table 2. Selected Services - Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability [Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data the Quarterly Services Survey] Year to date Coefficient of variation for total revenue Standard error for percent change Coefficient of Standard variation error 3Q 2Q code 3Q 624 Social assistance Individual and family services Community food and housing, and emergency and other relief services Vocational rehabilitation services Child day care services Arts, entertainment, and recreation Performing arts, spectator sports, and related industries Performing arts companies Spectator sports Promoters of performing arts, sports, and similar events Agents and managers for artists, athletes, entertainers, and other public figures Independent artists, writers, and performers Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries Amusement parks and arcades Gambling industries Other amusement and recreation industries Accommodation Traveler accommodation RV (recreational vehicle) parks and recreational camps Rooming and boarding houses Other services (except public administration) Repair and maintenance Automotive repair and maintenance Electronic and precision equipment repair and maintenance Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment (except automotive and electronic) repair and maintenance Personal and household goods repair and maintenance Personal and laundry services Personal care services S S Death care services Drycleaning and laundry services Other personal services Religious, grantmaking, civic, professional, and similar organizations Preliminary estimate. Revised estimate. Z Absolute value is less than.05. S Corresponding estimate in Table 1a and/or 1b does not meet publication standards because of high sampling variability or poor response quality. Note: Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on data not adjusted for seasonal variation, and should be used when drawing inferences about both adjusted and not adjusted estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at US. Census Bureau 10

11 Survey Description The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) to provide national estimates of quarterly revenue for employer firms located in the United States and classified in select service industries. The current total sample size is approximately 19,000 employer firms. Each quarter, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of employer firms selected the larger Service Annual Survey (SAS) sample. The QSS sample includes firms of all sizes and is updated on a quarterly basis to account for new services businesses, deaths, and other changes to the survey universe. Data for nonresponding firms are imputed based on data for similar-sized firms classified in the same kind of business. The following table lists imputation rates of total quarterly revenue for the industries published in the QSS: Code Kind of Business Imputation Rate of Total Quarterly Revenue (in %) 22 Utilities Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, and technical services Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation Other services (except public administration) 35 Quarterly revenue estimates are obtained by summing weighted data (either reported or imputed), where the weight for a particular unit is the reciprocal of its probability of being selected into the sample. The estimates are benchmarked using results of the latest SAS. Additional information on the QSS can be found on the Census Bureau website at Description of Seasonal Adjustment To derive the seasonally adjusted revenue estimates published in this report, we used all available quarterly revenue estimates as input to the Census Bureau s X-13 ARIMA-SEATS program. With each quarterly release, we publish preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates for the current quarter and revised seasonally adjusted estimates for the previous five quarters. The seasonal adjustment models used to derive seasonal factors for each kind of business are evaluated annually and will not be revised until the next benchmarking operation. For a table of the seasonal adjustment factors, see A list of Frequently Asked Questions on seasonal adjustment of QSS estimates is available at Reliability of the Estimates The estimates in this report may differ the actual, but unknown, population values. For a particular estimate, statisticians define this difference as the total error of the estimate. When describing the accuracy of survey results, it is convenient to discuss total error as the sum of sampling error and nonsampling error. Nonsampling error is the difference between the actual population parameter and the value that would be derived by surveying the entire set of units identified as the survey universe (the sampling frame). There are many potential contributors to nonsampling error the inclusion of erroneous units in the survey (overcoverage), the exclusion of eligible units the survey (undercoverage), nonresponse, misreporting, mistakes in recording and coding responses, misinterpretation of questions, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Though nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error. Sampling error is the average difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Common measures of sampling error are the sampling variance, the standard error, and the coefficient of variation (CV). The sampling variance is defined as the squared difference, averaged over all possible samples of the same size and design, between the estimator and its average value. The standard error is the square root of the sampling variance. The CV expresses the standard error as a percentage of the estimate to which it refers. For example, an estimate of 200 units that has an estimated standard error of 10 units has an estimated CV of 5 percent. The sampling variance, standard error, and CV of an estimate can be estimated the selected sample because the sample was selected using probability sampling. Standard errors and coefficients of variation are given in Table 2 of this report. The first page of this release gives statements about the change in revenue a prior period. Each change estimate is accompanied by a number in parentheses, called the margin of error. The margin of error can be used to construct a 90-percent confidence interval, which is interpreted as follows. If, for each possible sample, an estimate and its approximate standard error are obtained, then for approximately 90 percent of the possible samples, the interval standard errors below to standard errors above the estimate would include the average of the estimates derived all possible samples. If, for example, a particular change estimate is +1.2 percent and its associated margin of error is ±1.5 percentage points, then the 90-percent confidence interval for the change estimate is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90- percent confidence level that the actual change is different zero. Each comparison stated in this report has undergone statistical testing and is significant at the 90-percent confidence level, unless otherwise noted. Data users should take into account the estimates of sampling error and the potential effects of nonsampling error when using the statistics in this publication. US. Census Bureau 11

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