Sadly, the Closer Identifier Algorithm is no longer perfect. Last week we pointed out the somewhat subjective nature of the "nine out of 10" criterion. This led CIA to its first "miss" -- a very disappointing one.

It missed on Mark Melancon.

For weeks CIA predicted that Jason Grilli would get his job back. And up until Melancon's very last save it was still predicting that Melancon would lose the job. But that last save was Melancon's 10th in 12 opportunities. And in the last 10 of the 12, he converted nine. Any other scenario would have been a "hit" and CIA would be perfect.

San Francisco Giants: Sergio Romo had a terrible week and drops to "auto lose" for the first time since CIA's invention. Normally we would say it is a temporary status demotion, but his strikeout rate is way down from its norms so we have to at least consider the possibility that he is in trouble. His conversion rate is fine but another blown save or two and this will be a different discussion.

Detroit Tigers: It is time to admit the truth ... Joe Nathan is no longer an effective closer and needs to be demoted. He has been in "lose" territory or worse all year with the exception of a day or two, and he allowed four more earned runs last week. He has four blown saves, is walking almost 4.5 batters per nine innings and his ERA is 5.23. He has a very short leash.

Unlike in Romo's case, the Tigers are getting great relief from Joba Chamberlain, so they have a viable alternative. And this is a team with high hopes so they cannot continue to lose games in the ninth inning. Chamberlain would have an easy "hold" status if he had the job right now, and no matter what you think of Nathan, the smart play here is to grab Joba.

Cleveland Indians: It is the Cody Allen show in Cleveland, as Allen wrested control of the job. He looks good and merits a "hold" rating right now. But his control is not as good as Brian Shaw's, which he makes up for with more strikeouts.

If you could put them both together they would be elite. There are times when a closer comes in and needs a strikeout and other times when he needs to avoid a walk. A smart manager could squeeze some extra value out of the two with proper handling.

Los Angeles Angels: Ernesto Frieri has the job back again, as he did last year and as he has in the past. Joe Smith pitched fairly well in a vacuum, but a 5-for-9 conversion rate is not getting the job done and his stint is mercifully at an end for the short term.

Frieri gets a fresh start under CIA's rules, so what he did in terms of converting saves before he lost the job is now irrelevant, though the rest of his stats still matter. This may seem arbitrary but it is not, since we are trying to get into the mind of managers, and once a guy gets the job back he is viewed as a new man.

Frieri is perfect since he returned to the role, at least through Sunday's games, and his issue is not so much the quality of his skills as much as it is long ball trouble. For now his home run-to fly ball rate should regress positively. He might therefore have a long leash. We grudgingly gave credit to Mike Scioscia for trying to use both Smith and Frieri, and now we give him double credit for ending it when he needed to.

Other news:

-- David Robertson yielded five earned runs in one outing, and drops to "auto lose." Unlike Sergio Romo, Robertson has shown no skill decline so this is very likely a temporary change,

-- Similar comments apply to Francisco Rodriguez, whose workload finally reared its head in a bad week. He is definitely vulnerable if he continues to falter but given how good he has been, we expect him to be fine after a rest.

-- You can call of the dogs on Trevor Rosenthal, who appears to be back to his old self. He is ahead of all CIA minimum skill requirements, and has eight strikeouts and no walks in his last eight appearances.

The current version of the Algorithm:

1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer's job?

2. Has he allowed at least six runs in his 10 ten appearances, or is his season K/BB below 2.00? If "yes" then "auto lose." If neither, then proceed to step 4.

3. If so, is his save percentage greater than 90% with 10 or more opportunities, or in his last 10 opportunities? If "yes" then "auto hold." If "no" proceed to step 4.

4. Is the pitcher's save percentage less than or equal to 60% over his last 10 opportunities? If "yes" then "auto lose." If "no" proceed to step 5.

5. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?

6. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?

If the answer to conditions 4-6 is yes, then CIA predicts he'll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he'll lose the job. The prediction will be deemed correct or not at the time of an official announcement or when the pitcher has lost a share of the job, in which case we go back to the appearance directly after his last save.

If the injured closer had a "hold" or "auto hold" status before the injury, CIA predicts he will return to the role upon his return regardless of the status of the current closer.