Wary Democrats Eye Poll Numbers as Health Vote Looms

By

Naftali Bendavid

Updated March 16, 2010 7:22 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON—Party leaders are assuring wavering Democrats that passage of a sweeping health-care plan will help them in the midterm elections, despite Republican warnings that supporting the bill is political suicide.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll indicates that 48% of voters consider the bill a bad idea and 36% a good idea, but several other recent polls have showed the margin much closer. And individual elements of the plan, such as requiring insurers to accept customers with existing illnesses, have broad support, Democrats note.

They also predict that the aura of victory that would surround passage of the biggest piece of social legislation in decades would boost its popularity.

"This Republican mythology that there is huge opposition... against this bill is not factually accurate," said Rep.
Rob Andrews
(D., N.J.), who is playing a central role in the Democrats' efforts. "We believe this will make the country better. People want you to try to make it better, and they want a good-faith effort."

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Republicans said Democrats were deluding themselves if they believed voters' anger toward the plan wouldn't lead to a November bloodbath.

"What they really want is to jam their vision of health care through Congress over the objections of a public that they seem to think is too ill-informed to notice," Senate Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell
(R., Ky.) said recently. "If they go ahead with this plan, they'll see how wrong they are."

Mr. Andrews suggested Democrats should view Republicans' warnings with suspicion. "Anybody who lets the other team's coach call their plays isn't very smart," he said. "If they think we shouldn't pass it, that makes me think we should."

After a year of debate, Democratic leaders hope the House will turn the bill into law as soon as this weekend. Both sides are focusing on perhaps a dozen wavering Democrats, pitching their appeals more directly to them than to the public at large.

For both parties, predictions about how the bill would play in November are a critical part of the pitch.

David Axelrod,
senior adviser to President
Barack Obama,
said in an interview that once the bill passes, Democrats would benefit because "all the horrific things the opponents have been predicting won't happen." He added: "If you have insurance today and you're happy with it, you'll have that same insurance tomorrow and the next day...The sky-is-falling crowd will be exposed."

But Republicans said the health plan had become a proxy for a broader, highly unpopular expansion of government by the Obama administration. They noted that the nearly $1 trillion, 10-year health bill comes after the government bailed out banks and took a majority stake in General Motors Corp.

Rather than settling the matter, passing the overhaul would produce another debate over whether it should be rescinded, Republicans said.

"I am absolutely convinced that there will be an instant effort in this country to repeal the health care bill that will go until November and will define every congressional race," said Sen.
Lamar Alexander
(R., Tenn.).

Democrats have worked to increase the benefits consumers would see right away if the bill passes. For example, the bill would forbid insurance companies from denying care to children based on pre-existing medical conditions.

The electorate's opinion of the health package could be influenced by factors beyond either party's control. If unemployment remains high through November, voters might judge the health plan far more harshly than if they sensed their prospects improving.

In the interim, the two sides are offering contradictory interpretations of the latest polls. Republicans highlighted surveys showing double-digit margins against the bill. Real Clear Politics, a nonpartisan Web site, averaged national surveys and concluded the public leaned against the plan by a 7.6-percentage-point margin. Democrats pointed to recent polls that were closer, such as a Gallup survey released March 9 that found 48% opposed and 45% in favor, within the margin of error.

Democrats contend that some voters opposed the plan only because they believed it didn't go far enough. And they noted that polls showed voters overwhelmingly believe the health-care system needed major changes.

Sometimes voters' views seem contradictory. In the Journal/NBC poll, a small plurality of voters said they would be less likely to vote for their member of Congress if he or she opposed the Democrats' plan. But a small plurality also said they would be less likely to vote for their member if he or she supported the plan.

Democrats hope such varying views give them an opening to pass the bill and make the case for it until November.

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