For more than two decades, ever since the moment back in 1989 when Paul Caligiuri’s arcing half-volley sealed the U.S. national team’s first World Cup berth in 40 years, American soccer has held fast to its spot in one of the sport’s most exclusive fraternities.

Just seven nations -- FIFA currently has 209 members -- have qualified for each of the past six World Cup tournaments. Giants of the global game like England, France and the Netherlands have missed out during that stretch. A semifinalist in 2010, Uruguay failed to reach three of the preceding four tournaments. Egypt has won the Africa Cup of Nations four times the last two decades but hasn’t made an appearance at a World Cup since 1990.

Recent events closer to home add to the evidence that passage to the quadrennial World Cup finals never should be taken for granted.

The heavily favored U.S. Under-23 team failed to escape the Olympic preliminaries this spring, going 1-1-1 in a group that included supposed middleweights Cuba, Canada and El Salvador

“What happened to the Olympic team is a huge warning to whomever thinks CONCACAF is an easy region to go through and qualify,” U.S. coach Jurgen Klinsamnn said this week. “The teams in CONCACAF have improved over the last few years a lot.”

Costa Rica, considered by many to be the third-strongest CONCACAF nation, will be eliminated from the 2014 World Cup with a loss at El Salvador on Friday.

Incredibly, there’s a chance the U.S. might face an early exit as well. At 2-1-1, Klinsmann’s team is tied with Guatemala and Jamaica atop their four-team group. The Americans visit Antigua and Barbuda (0-3-1) on Friday and close out the semifinal round on Oct. 16 against Guatemala in Kansas City.

The U.S. has looked disjointed, managing only six goals in its four qualifiers this year. Half came during the June opener vs. Antigua in Tampa. Four players -- including Landon Donovan and Fabian Johnson -- already have been ruled out of Friday’s game with injuries. A draw in weather-beaten North Sound could leave the U.S. needing a win next week to move on. And in one game, anything can happen.

“It’s becoming more difficult to qualify,” said Alexi Lalas, the Hall of Fame, former MLS G.M. and current ESPN analyst. “At some point, you have to think that the stars will align in a negative way and something bad will happen. Somebody will get a red card. The ball will go in off somebody’s ear. The sum of all our fears will be realized.”

What if those fears become reality over the course of the next week? Is American soccer prepared to miss out on the World Cup? Are the foundations deep enough to withstand such a storm?

It’s certainly not a comfortable question for the powers that be. U.S. Soccer Federation officials and Major League Soccer officials refused to comment on the record when contacted by Sporting News.

Their caution is understandable -- it’s a hypothetical, after all. But it also might be unnecessary. Soccer in the United States has evolved quite a bit since Lalas & Co. were slogging it out in the mid ‘90s and MLS’ future depended on how much money Phil Anschutz was willing to lose.

Although World Cup failure would be difficult to swallow, it wouldn’t be cataclysmic. It might even foment change for the better.

“Soccer in the United States is probably much more able to absorb that type of devastating blow than we were in 1998 or even 2002,” Lalas said.

On the eve of these two critical qualifiers, Sporting News takes a look at how that failure might ripple through the American game:

U.S. SOCCER FEDERATION

Fail to qualify, and the Klinsmann experiment -- a bold but expensive ($2.5 million per year salary) effort to instill a new attitude and playing style throughout U.S. soccer -- would be deemed a failure.

That might be harsh -- injuries aren’t his fault and the ball can bounce cruelly -- but it’s the reality.

The backlash might extend to U.S. Soccer president Sunil Gulati, who pursued Klinsmann for five years before landing the German icon last summer. Gulati, already saddled with the disappointment of the failed bid to host the 2022 World Cup, ran unopposed for his second term as president in 2010. He likely would face a challenger or two if there’s no World Cup in ’14.

In addition to hiring a new coach, Gulati or his successor might have difficulty renewing sponsorships or might even be subject to clauses that stipulate reduced support if the U.S. doesn’t qualify.

But beyond the Federation’s top jobs and bottom line, the impact might be minimal. There would be calls to overhaul the American player development system, but that’s already happening. The U.S. Soccer Development Academy has entered its sixth season, and a lot of the changes Klinsmann has talked about -- focused on improving players’ comfort and technique on the ball -- already are being implemented by U.S. Soccer youth technical director and former national team captain Claudio Reyna. Those initiatives shouldn’t and likely wouldn’t change.

MLS

At 19 teams and with average attendance at a record 18,655 per game, the 17-year-old league is on solid footing. More clubs matter to more fans in more cities than ever before. There’s little question that while failing to qualify for the World Cup would involve a significant P.R. hit, MLS now has an identity of its own.

There isn’t much evidence to suggest that the World Cup has a significant impact on MLS attendance. Crowds during the past three quadrennial tournaments have fallen below the full-year average. Post-World Cup attendance in 2010, when the U.S. won its first-round group, was just 1 percent above the full-year average. Six times in MLS history, playoff attendance has surpassed 17,500 per game -- only two of those were World Cup years.

Failure for the U.S. to qualify might mitigate the enthusiasm of a few fair-weather fans, but by and large MLS has progressed to a stage where Seattle Sounders and Philadelphia Union supporters won’t take their national team frustrations out on their club.

The league’s TV contracts with NBC, ESPN and Univision expire at the conclusion of the 2014 season. A World Cup without the U.S. might create a malaise that has a slight impact on ratings, but MLS has struggled on that front anyway and is working hard to improve it over the next two years.

In an interview with Sporting News this summer, commissioner Don Garber addressed the perilous nature of World Cup qualifying and admitted that U.S. failure “would be far more devastating than not qualifying for the (2012) Olympics.”

To reduce potential damage, the MLS board of governors might decide to make additional investments, either in short-term player salaries or in the development of younger professionals who might contribute to future World Cup qualifying efforts. A big-name signing or two could spark interest. Addressing the admitted shortfall in opportunities for players ages 18-22 would signal a commitment to improve.

“We’ve had national teams that haven’t qualified for the Olympics,” Garber said. “(There are countries) that haven’t qualified for the World Cup that were pretty good teams. It’s part of the sport that these things happen, and you’ve got to learn to get beyond it.

“All we can do as a league is do everything we can to be supportive of our federation, to release players in a way that’s far more cooperative than perhaps other leagues are with their national teams. ... But at the end of the day, the ball’s round and it bounces a lot of different ways.

“You hope it bounces in for the good guys.”

GRASSROOTS

In 2000, U.S. Youth Soccer, the nation’s largest organization of players ages 19 and under, had 3.02 million on the rolls. In 2011, there were 3.03 million. Numbers don’t really go up when there’s a World Cup, so it’s unlikely they’ll go down if there isn’t one.

“World Cup visibility creates a greater understanding and appreciation of the game, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into a dramatic spike in participation,” USYS executive director Jim Cosgrove said.

If there is a small lift in registration following a World Cup, it would recede shortly thereafter. Or it won’t occur at all. In the autumn following the ’10 tournament, the number of USYS players actually dropped 3.6 percent.

Qualification failure might inspire dialogue and introspection that would result in change for the better.

Clubs and coaches might start to think more seriously about long-term player development rather than winning at the youth level. The NCAA finally might address the issues that hold back the progress of many college players, particularly the unlimited substitutions that result in a game prioritizing strength over skill and the shorter season that puts athletes at a disadvantage relative to their foreign peers.

TELEVISION

If the U.S. fails to qualify, ESPN certainly wouldn’t be happy. As much as interest in high-level international soccer has grown throughout the U.S., the home team still drives ratings.

Two years ago, the four World Cup matches involving the U.S. drew an average rating of 5.3 on ABC and ESPN, with around 9.01 million viewers tuning in for each. The 64-game tournament on the whole averaged a 2.1 rating with approximately 3.26 million viewers per match. The absence of the U.S. surely would result in a loss of national visibility and momentum that would impact advertising.

ESPN executives were unavailable to comment, but Lalas chimed in.

“People who are into soccer are going to watch no matter what,” he said. “For some people, it would send a message and confirm their suspicions that we’re not that good. Some people would use that as a point of reference to bash U.S. soccer and bash the sport. Ultimately though, when summer (of 2014) rolls around, there will be plenty of people who will watch but with the recognition at all times that the U.S. isn’t there.”

The 2012 European Championship, considered the most prestigious international soccer tournament after the World Cup, delivered a 0.9 rating in the U.S. and around 1.3 million viewers per game on ESPN and ESPN2.

ESPN’s pain would be short lived, however, if the U.S. doesn’t make it to Brazil. Fox takes over World Cup broadcasts in 2018 and 2022.

PERCEPTION

As Lalas said, American World Cup failure would give the haters a field day.

“As soccer has come of age in the United States, there has been a group that feels threatened by the evolution of this game. That group sits and waits for moments to come up so they can bash the sport for whatever reason they deem fit at the time,” he said. “I’m not saying criticism and consternation wouldn’t be appropriate, but for many that are hoping that soccer doesn’t succeed and progress and evolve, it would be a wonderful moment for them.”

Soccer supporters would have to weather that storm of hot air, but they’ve been there before. When the U.S. hosted the World Cup in 1994, when MLS launched two years later and following the World Cup group-stage failures in ’98 and ’06, the naysayers who insist soccer is “un-American” made their voices heard. Each time, they eventually retreated. Meanwhile, their numbers dwindle through conversion or attrition.

Qualifying failure might stretch the marketing departments at MLS and U.S. Soccer and might test the resolve of editors and producers around the country, but the sport is past having to defend its right to exist.

“At 30,000 feet, there’s been a real sea-change among those who influence the way people think, influence the way they spend their money and influence decision-making,” Garber told Sporting News this summer, “and that’s moved where more people are beginning to care about the sport and believe in Major League Soccer.”

The World Cup grants the U.S. national team -- and by extension American soccer -- a priceless chance to prove itself to the world and grow the game at home. Missing it would hurt, but it wouldn’t be as harmful as it would have been 10 years ago.

Some would panic, but others would look at it as a motivator or an opportunity to reevaluate certain priorities.

“I don’t think it would be a sign of systemic failure,” Lalas said. “The prevailing wisdom would be that the mistake was hiring Jurgen Klinsmann, to be quite honest. ... Yes, there would be plenty of people who would say the sky is falling and we need to overhaul what we do. But once that settles down, there would be recognition that it’s more of a blip on the screen that could have been avoided. In a strange way, it could generate discussion in the U.S. Soccer community to look internally and to adjust and tweak -- not overhaul.”