Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Healthcare property owner Quality Care Properties Inc has agreed to
cut rents for HCR ManorCare but said the U.S. nursing home chain, which
already owes more than $300 million in back rent, has acknowledged it
will struggle to pay even the reduced amount, according to a regulatory
filing on Tuesday.

Under the deal, which includes a one-year
forbearance agreement, Quality Care reduced monthly rents under
ManorCare’s master lease to $23.5 million through Nov. 30, 2018 while
the two companies discuss a broader restructuring.

In 2010 Carlyle sold ManorCare's nursing home facilities at a premium price, $6.1 billion, and committed to monthly lease payments of $39.5 million.

Carlyle Partners V bought ManorCare in December of 2007 and news reports had Carlyle ceding control of ManorCare this past summer. However, The Carlyle Group's website shows ManorCare as a current investment.

Update 2-1-18: ManorCare owes more than $300 million in back rent and continues falling further behind. QCP may put Carlyle's struggling affiliate into receivership.

Thursday, December 21, 2017

The Carlyle Group invested in three companies that serve corporate human resources and employee health. Carlyle will buy BenefitMall, a provider of employee benefits and payroll services. It also took controlling stakes in MedRisk, which provides worker's compensation software, and Net Health, a provider of electronic medical records software solutions for specialized outpatient care, including workplace health.

Republicans insist that the trillions of
dollars headed back to corporations will get funneled into investments,
job creation, and wage growth, a recitation of the theory of
trickle-down economics.

Should companies actually invest more in employee salary/benefits Carlyle's new divisions could benefit handsomely. How much of Red Team trickle down with trickle up to The Carlyle Group? Leverage could magnify the trickle up.

Update 1-4-18: BenefitMall announced a new CEO. He comes from Greyhound.

Sunday, December 17, 2017

The Carlyle Group breathed a sigh of relief after AG Jeff Sessions' Department of Justice dropped a False Claims Act lawsuit against HCR ManorCare with potential damages over $500 million.

Carlyle purchased ManorCare for $6.3 billion in 2007. Carlyle sold the buildings in 2010 to HCP for $6.1 billion, which then spun them off to QCP in 2016 to isolate its shaky portfolio.

ManorCare has been on life support. Two months ago it owed over $300 million in late rent to QCP. How much will the DOJ's dropping of the suit
help ManorCare's finances? Will it enable Carlyle to salvage something from ManorCare's nearly lifeless husk? The Carlyle Group, a private equity underwriter (PEU), shows ManorCare as a current investment on its website.

Whistleblower Attorney Jeff Downey wrote of his disappointment in DOJ's action:

"DOJ had obtained compelling evidence of fraud. Defendants had admitted to a 100% increase in their Ultra high billing level, the most expensive level of therapy services billable to Medicare. ManorCare had produced documents which showed that their administrators improperly attempted to influence the billing levels of therapists, with one stating, “if they have a pulse, they can get an RU” (the highest level of reimbursement). One Regional managers explained that “everyone should be an RU when they come in.” ManorCare even had training that depicted Medicare as a series of credit cards being handed to ManorCare and portrayed a fictional superhero named “Super RU.”

Former AG Eric Holder would not pursue cases against banks as their
failure would add to unemployment and harm the economy. Did Session's
"Just Us" Department do likewise for an imploding ManorCare and its "more than 50,000 employees"?

Surely Carlyle pulled billions more from ManorCare in special dividends, management and deal fees which contributed to its current predicament. ManorCare CEO Paul Ormond received nearly $200 million when it sold to Carlyle. How much more did he take from the company in the last decade before he stepped down?

Ethically QCP should go after Carlyle and Ormond for back rent, given their profitgasm deals. However, the law is set up to protect Super PEUs. The federal wallet exists to enrich the stinking rich, even on the backs of senior citizens with a pulse.

Nearly one year ago, Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein met with President elect Donald Trump.

President-elect Donald Trump met Wednesday (12-28-16) with financier David Rubenstein. The meeting at Trump’s
Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida was among several post-holiday
conversations between Trump and health care executives and agriculture
secretary candidates.

Did Trump tell Rubenstein when punched to punch back twice as hard? ManorCare did just that by asking the DOJ to pay its legal fees. Did David ask Donald to make the ManorCare suit disappear?

Whatever happened, the suit is gone and ManorCare is financially better off as a result.

Correction 12-18-17: ManorCare's number of employees has been corrected from 30,000 to "more than 50,000." ManorCare serves 30,000 patients. My apology for this error.

For the last twenty five years the rich grabbed the lion's share of income gains. This was a reversal of a thirty year period that began after World War II where the bottom 90% income earners received the majority of income gains.

The recent "Rich 'R Rewarded" time period saw the birth of the greed and leverage boys and their subsequent proliferation.

Leveraged buyouts (LBO) first emerged as an important phenomenon in the 1980s. As leveraged buyout activity increased in that decade, Jensen (1989) predicted that the leveraged buyout organizations would eventually become the dominant corporate organizational form.

After junk bond king Michael Milken went to jail LBO got rebranded as private equity underwriters (PEU). Prosecutors allowed Milken to keep most of his ill gotten gains.

The first private equity wave began in 1982 or 1983 and ended in 1989; the second began in 2003 or 2004 and ended in 2007.

University of Chicago Business School professors predicted PEUs would remain part of our economic landscape:

We expect that a significant part of the growth in private equity activity and institutions is permanent.

Michael Milken touted private equity as the major employer in America, holding eight of the top ten employers slots.

Twenty five years is a long time for the top to be milking nearly all of income gains. Despite the predictions of PEU permanency, this too shall pass. It may take a decade or more, but their decline will come.

Friday, December 15, 2017

The Carlyle Group announced the closing of its investment in cashless India. Their press release stated

State
Bank of India (SBI, NSE: SBIN) and The Carlyle Group (NASDAQ: CG) today
announced that they have completed the acquisition of GE Capital Group’s
(GE Capital) entire stake in SBI Card, the second-largest and
fast-growing credit card franchise in India.SBI Card
is operated through two joint-venture companies, SBI Cards & Payment
Services and GE Capital Business Process Management Services, which
issue credit cards and process card transactions in the Indian market.
SBI and Carlyle now own 74% and 26% respectively in each of the two
entities.

Six months ago Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein met with India's Prime Minister Modi Carlyle is now part of Western firms who want to foist card fees on Indian citizens.

Sunday, December 10, 2017

The private equity recruitment cycle is starting earlier than ever,
forcing firms and candidates into the frenzied process before Christmas.

While extending formal offers in recent years has started earlier and earlier in January, never has it come before Christmas.

Access to the best talent can go quickly, so the process works like a
levy breach: Once one firm starts, the others flood in to follow suit. As the timeline moves earlier, the decisions get quicker. So-called
exploding offers, which give candidates a day or even just hours to
decide, have in some cases been replaced by a nuclear option: accept on
the spot or pass it up.

It's race to the top for future greed and leverage boys, also known as private equity underwriters (PEU). The rise of PEUs corresponds to the death of America's middle class. It's causation, not coincidence.

Friday, December 8, 2017

Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein and his wife Alice Rogoff are officially divorced, according to today's WaPo.

The couple, who married in 1983, was granted a divorce in Montgomery
County on Friday morning. All financial and other terms were settled
privately and will remain confidential, according to Rubenstein’s
lawyer, Sandy Ain, and Rogoff’s lawyer, Linda Ravdin.

The divorce occurred nearly four months after Mrs. Rubenstein put Alaska Dispatch News into bankruptcy. The article did not address how any divorce proceeds might go to make Alaska Dispatch News creditors whole.

Carlyle recently celebrated its 30 year anniversary as a private equity underwriter (PEU). Mr. and Mrs. Rubenstein separated in 2005, when Carlyle was 18, a mere teen.

The couple has three grown children and reports have David Rubenstein opening a family office with a daughter.

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal hit four weeks in detention without word of his situation. The billionaire prince, a frequent CNBC contributor, had few friends speak on his behalf since he was taken on November 4, 2017. Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is being held at the Riyadh Ritz Carlton.

Fellow billionaires should know it could happen to them. Like many of them Alwaleed bin Talal signed the giving pledge. His Giving Pledge page states:

“It is our duty as philanthropists to harness the very best of human
nature — generosity, innovation, creativity — to make the biggest
possible difference in people's lives.”

The prince's detention occurred right after Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein suggested Saudi Arabia was safe for billionaire investment.

What value is there in being friends with the West? We can ask Prince bin Talal if he ever resurfaces. Saif Gadhafi recently went public in Libya. He may have advice for the world about his and his father's experience with the Western billionaire class.

The Gulf state’s regulator has asked local and foreign banks to disclose if they have credit facilities and safety deposit boxes in the names of those arrested, including billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.

Nope.

Update 12-5-17: Forbesshared the most substantive information to date on the plight of the billionaire prince. " the settlement offered to Alwaleed
bin Talal requested that he hand over a large portion of his assets and
agree to lifetime house arrest with no phone and no media interviews.
Alwaleed has refused the offer, according to the source, and wants to go
to court. The specific allegations against Prince Alwaleed have not
been made public." The story said some of quiet Western friends are worried about him.

Update 12-9-17:NPR ran a piece on the missing prince and how it is making investors nervous. It stated "detaining a key international financial player of Alwaleed's stature
could harm potential investment in Saudi Arabia, some analysts say." No word from Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein if Saudi remains an attractive place to invest, a comment he made one week before bin Talal got taken. Rubenstein has been busy ending a different relationship. He divorced wife Alice Rogoff.

Update 12-10-17: Saudi princes are moving money to Europe in the aftermath of the purge.

Update 12-21-17: Bloombergreported a bin Talal settlement could be reached in weeks with proceeds going to fund government initiatives.

Update 12-22-17: Reports suggest bin Talal can settle with the government for $6 billion and have his freedom back.

Update 1-5-18: The conspicuous silence remains around bin Talal's detention. WSJ said the price for his freedom is $6 billion. His father is said to be on hunger strike on behalf of bin Talal and two detained brothers.

Update 1-14-18: The prince has been transferred to a high security Al Ha'ir prison. News report indicates Prince Alwaleed's leverage to demand a trial or negotiate a deal is "dwindling by the day." Trial by jury used to be important to our federal republic and a key feature of international expectations. It's clear strong counterpuncher President Donald Trump will not intervene on the Prince's behalf.

Blessed are the arrogant for theirs is the kingdom of their own companyBlessed are the superstars for the magnificence in their light we understand better our own insignificanceBlessed are the filthy rich for you can only truly own what you give away, like your pain (pain)Blessed are the bullies for one day they will have to stand up to themselves StandupBlessed are the liars for the truth can be awkwardStandup

Under Bono's superstar light can we understand our insignificance? Paul Hewson is a private equity underwriter (PEU) for Elevation Partners and a special partner with TPG Growth'a RISE Fund.

Paul/Bono sits on the RISE board with TPG founders David Bonderman and James Coulter.

David Bonderman: "Europeans don’t care about growth, no matter what they say… Europeans
only care about social stability. They care about the social compact."

Private equity is all about growth. As for any implied social compact billionaire founders grew wealthier while worker pay stagnated the last two decades.

TPG's James Coulter spoke at a Delivering Alpha conference in September.

The meeting delivered over $2.2 trillion of investable assets
represented by over 100 influential institutional investors.

A CNBC article on Coulter's talk mentioned the following:

Law firm Covington-Burling delivered a report to Uber with 47 recommendations to improve its culture, which has been plagued by criticisms of widespread sexism.

TPG partner David Bonderman quit Uber's board in July after taking heat
for a sexist remark. The ride-hailing company has been under
investigation for its workplace culture.

Bono's PEU peers are the self-serving, politically connected greed and leverage boys. Their world is private and they run the board. Any of their bad behavior will need a snitch, who can be bought off.

Bono intends to do good and make big money off the RISE fund, just as he did with a $43 million profit from Facebook. Facebook has come under fire from insiders over its addictive design:

“It literally changes your relationship with society, with each other …
It probably interferes with productivity in weird ways. God only knows
what it’s doing to our children’s brains.”

Four years ago David Bonderman said:

The real problem with Africa is that the markets are small… The only
two countries that really have markets of any size are Nigeria which has
a whole set of problems and South Africa which has a whole set of
problems. What is attractive with Africa is that it’s starting from a
very low base.A lot of these countries are moving the most and improving the most because they are the worst.

So TPG wants to help the worst rise while making bank

The Rise Fund is committed to achieving social and environmental impact alongside competitive financial returns.

Competitive PEU returns is a definable metric. The transparent RISE team refused to share their target figure. Is that arrogant for filthy rich PEU superstars to not share their desired multiple of money? Or does it make them liars and/or bullies?

Bono shows us those with the gold, platinum and double platinum can rule.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Carlyle-Backed Twinset Plots Expansion
The Italian fashion brand will open its first US store in New York, with plans to take on London in 2018.

Other Carlyle retailers in the Big Apple include Supreme:

Golden Goose Deluxe Brand:

And former holding Moncler:

Most are European imports. American based Supreme went the other way to London, Paris and Japan. Carlyle's dream is to expand affiliates, mine them for cash and flip them for a multiple of their original equity investment. It's the PEU way.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Private equity is now an employer of choice for former politicians, however they don't enter at the junior level.

As for the PEU pay survey, Bloomberg included a caveat:

And that doesn’t include bonuses and carried interest, or their cut of deal profits.

Private equity underwriters (PEU) fare well in tax reform, keeping their
preferred carried interest taxation under both the House and Senate
bills. Are they looking after their supporters, their future income or both?

Politicians Red and Blue love PEU.

Update 12-9-17:Jacobinreported: "The Obama presidency was a disaster for middle-class wealth in the United
States. Between 2007 and 2016, the average wealth of the bottom 99
percent dropped by $4,500. Over the same period, the average wealth of
the top 1 percent rose by $4.9 million."

Washington would have it no other way as politicians Red and Blue love PEU.

Update 12-3-17:The Hillreported more than 6,000 lobbyists worked to shape tax reform. The story did not indicate how many were PEU lobbyists.

Update 12-10-17: Trump's tax plan has Kansas roots. Will it turn much of the U.S. into dust in the wind?

Update 12-22-17: Fox Business reported " Bannon's advisers say he found it impossible to convince members of
Congress to take away the tax benefit from the powerful private equity
business. This is the same line of reasoning that was recently used by
Trump’s National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, who said the
private equity lobby was too powerful for the White House to compete
with, and that he and others behind the new tax bill unsuccessfully
tried to eliminate the deduction “25 times.”

Saturday, November 25, 2017

The Carlyle Group issued a video celebrating its teamwork and innovation after 30 years operating in Washington, D. C.. The video views more like a handoff from Carlyle's DBD co-founders to its next generation of leaders.

The video failed to mention core drivers of Carlyle's success as a private equity underwriter (PEU). One of those is preferred carried interest taxation:

At a Credit Suisse forum in Miami, in 2013, Rubenstein said of private
equity, “Carried interest is really what the business has historically
been about—producing distributions for your investors from good sales
and I.P.O.s . . . and getting twenty per cent of the profits for
yourself.” He went on, “That’s how we’ve really grown our business.”

At the end of the puff piece are several humorous bits. Rubenstein closes the video exhorting rowers to "get into private equity, the highest calling of mankind."

Consider the above example of integrity:

"H.J. Heinz determined to pay all creditors back, although it would not be required legally. His reputation and moral obligations had priority in his life. He started a ledger of what was owed and to whom."

Contrast Heinz's behavior with that of The Carlyle Group in its many failed ventures, where it simply walked away, refusing to put good money (which it had plenty of) after bad. Integrity, one of Carlyle's espoused values did not get one mention in their video.

A different calling saved PEU core driver carried interest according to the New Yorker:

On June 8th, Rubenstein’s cell phone rang as he was speaking to
supporters of the Economic Club, at the Phillips Collection. He left the
stage to take the call. Among those in the audience was Gary Shapiro,
the consumer-electronics lobbyist who was Rubenstein’s travel companion
to Japan in the eighties. After a few minutes, Shapiro recalls,
Rubenstein returned and said, “That was a senator. That one call just
saved us on carried interest.”

And saved Carlyle's business. The greed and leverage boys live on. They know how much they are owed by politicians Red and Blue (who both love PEU).

Prince al-Waleed bin Talal of Saudi
Arabia pondered the notion of spending a spare half-billion dollars.
Then last month, on the recommendation of American advisers, he used the
money to buy up a sizable piece of America's largest banking company,
Citicorp.

The advisers were the Carlyle Group -- not a
familiar name on Wall Street, certainly. In fact, its only New York
connection is that it takes its name from the city's famed luxury hotel,
a favorite of the Carlyle partners.

The Carlyle Group, relatively new and based in
Washington, is led by people with little experience in the investment
business but with strong connections, especially in Washington.

David Rubenstein is the consummate salesman. He had this to say in 1991.

Whether the deal with the Saudi Prince will lead to further business for
Carlyle remains to be seen. But Carlyle has hopes: "We were mostly
interested in developing a relationship with him that might lead to
other things in the future," Mr. Rubenstein said.

It's not clear if Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is one of Carlyle's 1,750 investors from over 82 countries.
Rubenstein has not publicly said if he is worried about the billionaire Prince, however a $1.3 loan to Kingdom Holdings has been held up due to the Prince's detention.

A senior banker at a Saudi financial institution, said the loan deal
would not go ahead until the situation facing the prince was resolved.

Also in October PwC and UBS referenced the billionaire prince in a study on the undetained super rich.

The allegations against Prince Alwaleed, who owns 95 percent of Kingdom,
include money laundering, bribery and extorting officials, a Saudi
official has previously told Reuters.

The question is how intertwined are Carlyle and the detained prince? The Carlyle Group settled more than one bribery allegation in the past. Will the Prince come out as unscathed as Carlyle? Will he endure a purge like Libya's Saif al Islam Gaddafi, another Carlyle Group courtee?

Might The David Rubenstein Show on Bloomberg TV entertain any of these questions? Only the host knows for sure.

Update 11-25-17:NYT Columnist Thomas Friedman spoke to new prince in charge with a "firehose of new ideas." Friedman sees changes in Saudi Arabia as their Arab Spring. Friedman made no mention of Prince Alaweed bin Talal but he wrote. the mood among Saudis he spoke with was: “Just turn them all upside down, shake the money out of their pockets and don’t stop shaking them until it’s all out!” Who will end up with bin Talal's Citi, Four Seasons and Kingdom Holdings shares? How do those fall out of the pockets of someone hanging upside down? I'm not sure how Friedman sees freedom arriving under a barrage of torture reference.

Update 11-26-17:Bloomberg reported a second deal is held up as a different billionaire Saudi Prince is detained in the Ritz-Carlton.

Update 12-3-17:CNBCnoticed om 12-1-17 what PEUReport observed. No friends of Prince bin Talal have spoken out on his behalf.

Update 12-7-17: Bloomberg did a piece on the Saudi crackdown but no word yet from Bloomberg TV's David Rubenstein.

Update 12-9-17:NPRnoted "detaining a key international financial player of Alwaleed's stature
could harm potential investment in Saudi Arabia." Has David Rubenstein changed his mind on Saudi Arabia being an attractive place to invest? He's been busy ending a different relationship, given his divorce from wife Alice Rogoff. Did he divorce Prince Alaweed bin Talal as well?

The Carlyle Group presented recently at the Future of Financials conference hosted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The private equity underwriter (PEU) had a slide on core drivers of their performance. I adapted the slide to show how billionaire PEU founders achieved their outsized wealth (pictured above).

Another slide showed Carlyle serves 1,750 investors from over 82 countries. It is these people Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein has in mind when he meets with President Trump, just as he met with Presidents George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Carlyle's pervasive political influence is not mobilized on behalf of the average citizen. It is steered toward the international billionaire class.

Politicians Red and Blue love PEU. That'sbecause the greed and leverage boys may be their next employer. That's the world we live in.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

The private equity model “is starting to look like a spent force” because more competition and record cash available is leading to lower returns as operators are forced to take on more risk, an adviser to the industry has said.

Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, ever the salesman, offered a different view:

Speaking at a trade conference in Amsterdam, David Rubenstein, the billionaire co-founder of the Carlyle Group, said the model of private equity had worked “pretty well” for both managers and investors and that was likely to continue for the next three decades, with minor adjustments.

Carlyle has roughly $100 billion to raise. Carlyle knows when not to throw good money after bad, as it did with bankrupt Carlyle Capital Corporation (CCC). The question is if and when investors decide PEU stakes are a bad deal.

The model of asset management charged no carried interest — the cut managers share with investors — for 200 years, he said, but private equity in the 1960s changed it because “money would be committed but not actually invested and more or less 20 per cent of the profits would go to the [manager]”.

The greed and leverage boys became ubiquitous in the last two decades. The rise of the billionaire founders coincided with the decimation of the middle class.

Ironically, PEUs want to become part of that middle class retirement account, what's left of it. Is more risk the tonic, or will it be toxic? Ask the robot what you need to do the pay a management fee plus carried interest. Surely, Carlyle funded artificial intelligence will give you an answer.

Monday, November 13, 2017

The PwC-UBS billionaire report highlighted a joint deal between Bill Gates' Cascade Investment Group and Kingdom Holding,
directed by Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, one of the world’s leading
investors. The pair bought out Four Seasons just before the 2008 financial crisis.

PwC-UBS released the billionaire report in October, before the corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia that engulfed the Prince. Moneyreported:

He’s the richest man in the Middle East. And now he’s under house arrest. Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal—best known for sporting a
distinctive throwback mustache, trading in traditional Saudi garb for
fine suits, and making a series of high-profile, brand-name
investments—was detained this week as part of what the Saudis have called a corruption crackdown. It is not clear what specific charges have been leveled against the prince.

Four Seasons issued debt twice under billionaire ownership, according to Moody's. The company floated $1.1 billion in debt in June 2013. Part of those proceeds went to preferred shareholders. It refinanced $950 million of debt in November 2016, with $36 million going to owners in the form of dividends.

Money noted the Prince's propensity for leverage:

Yet the New YorkTimes also speculates that Prince Alwaleed may have
gone bankrupt during the 2008 financial crisis—which might be connected
to his detention.

“He had been highly leveraged and somehow got
elements of the government to bail him out, through his connections to
then-King Abdullah and the finance minister, who is also said to have
been arrested.

The United States rescued private money with trillions in public funds during the financial crisis. Surely, the Saudi's did likewise.

Kingdom Holding Company: The World’s Foremost Value Investor

Directed by Prince Under House Arrest in Corruption Crackdown

Billionaires, leverage, corruption and bailouts. It can be a sordid tale.

Update 11-23-17: Rumors have former Blackwater thugs tormenting and torturing Prince Alwaleed bin Talal while he remains in custody at the Riyadh Ritz Carlton. The last fall of similar magnitude happened to Libya's Saif al-Islam Gaddafi when the west shifted from courting his father to ousting him.

Update 11-27-17: Bill Gates publicly spoke about the plight of Prince Alwaleed bin Tabal, saying he only knew what he read in the press. Gates called the detained Prince an important partner in improving health conditions around the globe.

Update 12-3-17:CNBCnoticed om 12-1-17 what PEUReport observed. No friends of Prince bin Talal have spoken out on his behalf.

Sunday, November 12, 2017

Yet the 2017 billionaires report compiled
by the Swiss bank UBS and the consultancy firm PwC finds that the clock
would have to be turned back to 1905 – when the Russians were having a
trial run for their revolution and Queen Victoria had been dead only
four years – to find a time when wealth was so concentrated.

Josef Stadler, the author of the UBS/PwC report,
said: “We are now two years into the peak of the second Gilded Age,”
and he added that the 1,542 dollar billionaires around the world were
concerned about how concentrated wealth has become. But not, it seems,
concerned enough to do anything about it. The rich show real tenacity
when it comes to holding on to their wealth and the system that
generates it.

The newspaper piece missed the marketing nature of the PwC/UBS billionaire report. First, it calls then "new value creators" vs. "systemic wealth concentrators." Second, the intent is to advise more of the world's wealthy billionaires.

America's political system under Republicans and Democrats fostered the rich getting richer, as shown by a graph in the billionaire report. I added colored arrows and presidential names to the graph. The growing of billionaires has been a bipartisan effort for decades.

Sunday, November 5, 2017

Fed Chair nominee Jerome Powell has a strong supporter in the author of "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America." Danielle DiMartino Booth wrote:

The sheer breadth of Powell’s experience is refreshing compared to what we’ve had for the past 30 years. Powell has a deep understanding of the law and politics.

At
the Carlyle Group, Powell founded and ran the Industrial Group within
the Buyout Fund. A separate missing characteristic among Fed leaders for
the past 30 years has been a woeful lack of understanding as to how Fed
policy effects corporations and the decisions CEOs and CFOs make driven
by Fed policy, the most obvious of which has been debt-financed share
buybacks at the expense of capital expenditures.

Future Fed Chair Powell's Carlyle Group executes a private form of the above strategy, debt financed dividends at the expense of capital expenditures and my addition, employee raises..
Author Danielle DiMartino Booth and Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein share frequent appearances on Bloomberg and CNBC. Rubenstein has his own show on Bloomberg.

DiMartino Booth is a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business
speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg,
Bloomberg Radio, Fox News, Fox Business News and other major media
outlets.

Below is a core message of Fed Up, according to Amazon.

While easy money has kept Wall Street and the wealthy afloat and thriving, Main Street isn’t doing so well.

America's new Fed Chair grew wealthy from his time with The Carlyle Group, a politically connected private equity underwriter (PEU).

In 2017, Powell reported that he had a net worth of between $19.7 million and $55 million, making him the richest member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

I expect Jerome Powell to look after his wealthy peers as Fed Chair. He should face easy approval as politicians Red and Blue love PEU.

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

God's favor for The Carlyle Group's co-founders continued with President Trump's appointment of another Carlyle alumus for Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. As they turn their politically connected private equity underwriter (PEU) over to younger hands they will have two friends working on the macroeconomic scene. The irony is the last few decades have been tilted toward the greed and leverage boys and not the average citizen.

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Carlyle Group co-founders David Rubenstein, William Conway and Daniel D'Aniello took a step back from running their politically connected private equity underwriting (PEU) firm. The DBDs, David-Bill-Daniel, started The Carlyle Group in 1987.

For all its glasnost, the genius of Carlyle may well yet rest with
the unsettled dynamic among its leaders that has been there from the
Marriott breakfast.

“At the end of the day,” Akerson said, “it
wouldn’t be the firm anywhere close to where it is if they were alone.
It’s a complicated, synergistic relationship.”

And it's mostly done, as all three step back from their current roles starting January 1, 2018. Axios reported:

Sources say that Rubenstein is planning to launch a family office, likely in partnership with at least one of his daughters.

That could be in competition with Carlyle for deals. The PEU guard is changing.

Sunday, October 22, 2017

US private equity group Carlyle has joined the heated takeover battle for Old Mutual Global Investors’ £25bn fund business, with four parties now bidding for the investment arm run by star UK manager Richard Buxton.
Carlyle joins Challenger and Macquarie Investment Management, two Australian financial services groups, and TA Associates, a buyout specialist.

Assets under management fell by
nearly £2 billion in the last year (from £26.9 billion in Q2 2016).
Like Carlyle OMGI knows how to proposition investors. Both know how to
move money offshore.

Old Mutual Global Investors will focus on its highly successful single strategy portfolio range and will continue to grow this attractive franchise under the leadership of Richard Buxton as CEO. Old Mutual Wealth is assessing, together with OMGI management, internal and external structures for the single strategy business to continue to develop it further.

Apparently, private equity underwriter (PEU) is the preferred structure for OMGI. Old Mutual Global Investors, established in 2012, is a mere five years old. To think it could soon have a new sponsor.

Goldman Sachs is advising parent Old Mutual on selling its asset management offspring. Which PEU will win OMGI?

Sunday, October 15, 2017

The Guardian ran a piece on oligarchy. It illuminated how a small number of greedy, power seekers can distort a democracy in their favor. The story used ancient Greece but their practices brought to mind The Carlyle Group, a politically connected private equity underwriter (PEU).

At its core, oligarchy involves concentrating economic power and using
it for political purposes. Democracy is vulnerable to oligarchy because
democrats focus so much on guaranteeing political equality that they
overlook the indirect threat that emerges from economic inequality.

Flashback to October 2001 in a piece titled "the Ex- Presidents' Club":

But what sets The Carlyle Group apart is the way it has exploited its political
contacts. When Carlucci arrived there in 1989, he brought with him a
phalanx of former subordinates from the CIA and the Pentagon, and an
awareness of the scale of business a company like Carlyle could do in
the corridors and steak-houses of Washington. In a decade and a half,
the firm has been able to realise a 34% rate of return on its
investments, and now claims to be the largest private equity firm in the
world.

Carlyle managed $5 billion in assets in early 2001. It manages over $170 billion today, a thirty four fold increase..

The next characteristic also brought Carlyle to mind:

They build a legal system that is skewed to work in their favor, so that
their illegal behavior rarely gets punished.

And they sustain all of
this through a campaign finance and lobbying system that gives them
undue influence over policy.

Private equity's preferred carried interest taxation is a perfect indicator of this undue influence. There has been no public will for billionaires to pay a lesser tax rate than a secretary, but that's been the case for over a decade.

On June 8, 2010 Rubenstein’s cell phone rang as he was speaking to supporters
of the Economic Club, at the Phillips Collection. He left the stage to
take the call. Among those in the audience was Gary Shapiro, the
consumer-electronics lobbyist who was Rubenstein’s travel companion to
Japan in the ’80s. After a few minutes, Shapiro recalls, Rubenstein
returned and said, “That was a senator. That one call just saved us on
carried interest.”

Oligarchs remain in power by maximizing their public image.

"Instead of public works projects, dedicated in the name of the people,
they relied on what we can think of as philanthropy to sustain their
power. Oligarchs would fund the creation of a new building or the
beautification of a public space. The result: the people would
appreciate elite spending on those projects and the upper class would
get their names memorialized for all time. After all, who could be
against oligarchs who show such generosity?"

And that's exactly what Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein did. Alaskan journalist Craig Medred reported on one Rubenstein relationship, that with his wife Alice Rogoff Rubenstein:

Some friends and former friends of Rogoff are angry at Rubenstein,
who they believe could have cleaned up his long-estranged wife’s Alaska
mess but refused to do so. Rubenstein is worth an estimated $2.5
billion. He spent $21.3 million to buy the Magna Carta in 2007.

In 2016, Rubenstein gave the National Park Service $18.5 million to help restore the Lincoln Memorial. In
private, Rogoff has described those acts as publicity grabs and claimed
all her financier husband really cares about is making money.

Mrs. Rubenstein's revelation fits with Greek oligarchic practices.

"the key to oligarchy is that a set of elites have enough material
resources to spend on securing their status and interests. He calls this
“wealth defense,” and divides it into two categories. “Property
defense” involves protecting existing property – in the old days, this
meant building castles and walls, today it involves the rule of law.
“Income defense” is about protecting earnings; these days, that means
advocating for low taxes"

President Trump's cabinet is chock full of PEUs. They are in a unique position to protect their brethren.

The question is whether democracy will emerge from oligarchic breakdown –
or whether the oligarchs will just strengthen their grasp on the levers
of government.

The Federal Reserve board already has two board members from The Carlyle Group. One is Vice Chair for Regulatory Affairs and other could be the next Fed President. Carlyle co-founders dined regularly with Presidents from both the Red and Blue Team. They have free access to Capital Hill and show up when their pocketbook dictates.

Former Vice President Joe Biden's recent defense of rich people suggest the billionaire grasp on government will strengthen with each crisis. Politicians Red and Blue love PEU.

Saturday, October 14, 2017

Just two days following the announcement that Supreme had sold a 50 percent stake in its company to The Carlyle Group, some branded tees have cropped up online.
Available in the firm’s corporate colorway of white and blue, each
tee is $30 and features the nondescript company logo on the front.

Step right up. This is an opportunity for politicians to show their Carlyle love for a mere $30.

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randall Quarles worked for The Carlyle Group overseeing the PEU's financial/banking investments. The new Fed Chair may have Carlyle on his resume. Carlyle could have two alumni at the top of the Federal Reserve Bank Board of Governors. What might that unleash for the greed and leverage boys? Politicians Red and Blue love PEU.

Sunday, October 8, 2017

A growing number of retail investors are joining superannuation funds,
sovereign wealth funds and high net worths in moving money into private
equity funds, as the sector looks to deploy record levels of capital,
according to one of the world’s top private equity executives.

Carlyle courted retail investors before with little success.

In May 2015 Carlyle closed Carlyle Global Core Allocation
Fund, a mutual fund with $50 million in net assets. The fund had a mandate to invest
across equities, debt, real estate, commodities and currencies using
exchange-traded funds. It also ceased Carlyle Enhanced Commodity Real Return
Fund, which had a mandate to invest in assets like energy and
metals. (source: Reuters)

Carlyle's hedge fund clients took a bath across many offerings. Carlyle closed most of those offerings in 2016.

Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein called for a PEU retail investor boom that hasn't materialized over the last four years. Given how many Americans have been taken apart by the greed and leverage boys I am not sure it ever will.

Saturday, October 7, 2017

New York downtown cool has a new sponsor, the Carlyle Group, a politically connected private equity underwriter (PEU). Business of Fashion reported:

The deal marks the first time a top-tier private equity firm has
invested in streetwear and underscores the power of the Supreme brand —
often dubbed “the Chanel of streetwear” — and its innovative business
model, rooted in cool but accessibly-priced product.

Carlyle's investment will fuel rapid expansion. How long before Supreme opens a store in Washington, D.C.? When will we see the DBDs wearing skater-inflected cool?

Update 10-10-17:Highsnobiety ran a scattershot piece on Carlyle-Supreme. It mentioned Carlyle's ownership of Synagro but not the bribery case involving the wife of Rep. John Conyers or Synagro's bankruptcy. It drew an analogy to Carlyle's investment in Beats.

Sunday, October 1, 2017

House Speaker Paul Ryan visited Pennsylvania Machine Works to push tax reform. The stated objective is to lower middle class taxes and corporate tax rates. The framework proposes cutting the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent under the guise of growing American jobs.

Ryan ducked the carried interest taxation issue. On Face the Nation he deferred it to the committee that will write the tax bill. Carried interest taxation enables private equity underwriters (PEU) to pay a preferred, lower tax rate.

Bloomberg list Penn Machine as a private company. There is no evidence the company is private equity owned.

Foundry reported in May 2017 the sale of another Pennsylvania manufacturer similar to the plant Speaker Ryan visited:

Speyside Equity Fund I LP, a New York-based private-equity group,
acquired Ashland Foundry and Machine Works Inc., a specialty steel
foundry in eastern Pennsylvania. The foundry specializes in pump
component and assemblies, for chemicals, mining, water, and industrial
markets. The seller was Michael Bargani, an investor who also is listed
as the owner of several other metalcasting businesses. The value of the
purchase was not announced.. Speyside Equity is also the owner of Alcast Corp., Dalton Corp., Pacific
Steel Castings, and Sawbrook Steel Castings. It has a range of other
holdings in manufacturing, fabricating, specialty chemicals, and food
ingredients businesses.

Owner Bargani purchased the plant in 2009 before flipping it to PEU Speyside Equity earlier this year. Speyside's website states:

Speyside Equity is an operationally focused private equity firm that has been successfully investing in manufacturing-related businesses since 2005.

A cut in corporate tax rates will increase corporate profits and enable PEU owners to siphon off more cash. There's one major problem. The PEU model is to load companies with debt which increase interest expense. Interest is tax deductible, as are deal/management fees. That means formerly tax paying corporations often don't owe taxes under PEU sponsorship.

Carried interest is the gift that enables billionaires to profit more when their PEU flips an affiliate. It survived two runs in the last decade, thanks in part to Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein and a complicit Congress. Carlyle's 10-k (filed in May 2017) states:

We earn management fees pursuant to contractual arrangements with the investment funds that we manage and fees for transaction advisory and oversight services provided to portfolio companies of these funds. We also typically receive a performance fee from an investment fund, which may be either an incentive fee or a special residual allocation of income, which we refer to as a carried interest.

Carlyle achieved a net income of over $400 million in 2015. It made a provision of $2.1 million for income taxes. That's a tax rate of 0.52%.

President Trump, like President Obama before him, ran on eliminating the carried interest loophole. Trump's team is waffling on his commitment. President Obama made $400,000 from speaking to The Carlyle Group annual investor meeting. Carlyle's founders have made hay off preferred carried interest taxation.

I expect Trump's tax reform will benefit the PEU boys, many of whom serve in his Cabinet. The question is in how many ways? Paul Ryan and Congress are expected to deliver yet again.

Insider Architect of the Implosion

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