Market Report U.S.

Gender Reversal of U.S. Consumer Confidence on the Economy

e-forecasting.com earliest and always final reading of U.S. consumer confidence, for the world's largest consumer market of $15 trillion, fell in August, after five consecutive monthly increases since last March.

e-forecasting.com™ earliest and always final reading of U.S. consumer confidence, for the world's largest consumer market of $15 trillion, fell in August, after five consecutive monthly increases since last March.

In the published today August issue of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest, the barometer of consumers' outlook, which visualizes Americans' optimism (pessimism) by modeling analytics of what's next vs. what's now, "...predicts rising optimism for business activity over the next six months," said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor at the University of New Hampshire and editor-in-chief of the Digest.

Using predictive intelligence on business-cycle analytics and consumers' expectations, the model displays that "… the probability for an upcoming recession rose to 22.2% in August from 11% in July. As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 77.8%...", said Suwen Duan, data scientist at MIT, VP for the artificial intelligence research theme at e-forecasting.com, and editor of the Digest.

The early bird's news about the level of confidence on the economy expected by consumers lead to the prediction that the United States' business-cycle will continue to be on a growth path, at a slower pace than its historically high growth performance of the last two years.

In the August issue of e-forecasting.com’s “monthly surprise-addendum visualization”, selected from hundreds of consumer predictive analytics generated every month for clients around the world, displays an economic-policy predictive intelligence tool, which provides “…evidence on the effectiveness of policies - fiscal or monetary - by president Trump that have shaped drastically labor markers…”, Simos said.