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Car culture, high housing costs could stand in way of California’s climate goals

California has become the face of the resistance to President Trump's dismantling of climate change policies — and in many ways that reputation is earned. The Golden State gets nearly half its electricity from climate-friendly sources, including solar, wind, hydro and nuclear. Carbon emissions keep inching downward, putting the state on track to reduce planet-warming pollution to 1990 levels by 2020, as mandated by state law.

Some lawmakers think it's time for more ambitious goals. State Senate leader Kevin de León introduced a bill last year that would have required the state to get 100 percent of is electricity from zero-carbon sources by 2045 — a big jump from current requirements.

"We wanted to put something out there that shows that we get it, we're on board with where the state is headed, we see real opportunity for the business," Caroline Choi, Edison's senior vice president for regulatory affairs, told The Desert Sun.

But for all the progress California has made cleaning up its electricity, slashing carbon emissions is only going to get harder from here.

Just 19 percent of planet-warming emissions tracked by the state came from electricity in 2015, the most recent year for which data is available, according to the California Air Resources Board. Twenty-three percent came from industrial facilities like oil refineries and cement plants, with smaller contributions from agriculture, gas heating systems at homes and businesses, and chemicals used in refrigeration and air conditioning.

The biggest source of climate pollution was transportation. Thirty-nine percent of California's emissions came from cars, trucks, buses and other vehicles in 2015.

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Traffic moves slowly on westbound Interstate 10 as people head home after Thanksgiving in November 2017.(Photo: Colin Atagi/The Desert Sun)

So for California to meet its long-term goal of cutting emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, it needs to deal with transportation. But transportation emissions actually rose in 2014 and 2015, after dropping sharply during the Great Recession.

"Regulations and improved fuel efficiency of the state's vehicle fleet drive down emissions over time, but population growth, lower fuel prices, and improved economic conditions and higher employment rate are potential factors that may increase fuel use," the California Air Resources Board wrote in an emissions report earlier this year.

Another driver of increased transportation emissions: urban sprawl and high housing costs. As people live farther and farther from their jobs — driven out of urban centers by high home prices in places like Los Angeles and the Bay Area — they're forced to drive longer distances to work, spewing carbon all the while. Many climate advocates say denser cities, with more affordable housing and pedestrian-friendly neighborhoods, are needed to reduce climate emissions, along with bigger investment in public transit.

Gov. Jerry Brown has set a goal of putting 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2025. But so far, the state's total number of fully electric and plug-in hybrids vehicles is just 300,000, officials say, despite state and federal rebates for electric cars. That's nearly half of the country's zero-emission vehicles, but far from what regulators say the state needs. The air resources board envisions 4.2 million such vehicles by 2030.

California has several programs to boost clean cars, including a mandate that 15 percent of vehicles sold by automakers must be zero-emission by 2025, and a rule that requires transportation fuels to be 18 percent less carbon-intensive, compared to 2010 levels, by 2030. Electric utilities, meanwhile, are investing in charging stations to power electric vehicles. And local agencies are investing in cleaner buses — including the Coachella Valley's SunLine Transit Agency, which recently bought five hydrogen-powered buses to serve low-income communities in the east valley. That purchase was partially funded by $12.5 million from California's carbon-cutting cap-and-trade program.

"A hydrogen bus is just an electric bus, it just doesn't have to be plugged in," Lauren Skiver, SunLine's chief executive, told The Desert Sun. "It's kind of like a hybrid car, but you're using an even cleaner fuel than gasoline to generate the electricity."

Still, there's no question that a dramatic shift away from gasoline-powered vehicles over the next few decades will be a huge lift for California. One bright spot is that the cost of lithium-ion car batteries continues to drop, and automakers are offering ever-cheaper electric vehicles. Elon Musk's Tesla, for instance, has started delivering its $35,000 Model 3 sedan and is also taking pre-orders for an all-electric semi-truck. UPS said last month it would buy 125 of the semis, joining Pepsi, Walmart and other corporate buyers.

Continuing to ramp up clean electricity is also expected to get harder. The rapidly falling costs of solar and wind have led to stunning growth of those technologies, but the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. Experts say California will need new strategies to get to 50 percent clean electricity, and ultimately 100 percent.

Options for scaling up renewable energy include lithium-ion battery storage, which like solar and wind is getting cheaper, as well as innovative energy management strategies, like encouraging people to use energy at different times of day through restructured electricity rates or incentive payments. Good old energy efficiency is probably the cheapest option. California's per-capita electricity consumption has stayed flat since the mid-1970s, and a 2015 law calls for the state to double its energy-efficiency savings by 2030. That doubling will require more efficient buildings and appliances, as well as savings by industry and agriculture, according to the California Energy Commission.

Some experts see a unified western power grid as another way to more easily scale up wind and solar. The idea, supported by Gov. Brown, is to make it easier for California to buy cheap wind power from Wyoming, where the wind typically blows at different times of day than it does here, and also make it easier for California to sell excess solar power to other states. But for now, that plan looks dead. A bill in the Legislature that would have paved the way for a unified western grid didn't get a vote this year, amid fears it would inadvertently force California to buy coal-fired electricity from Wyoming, and concerns from labor unions about sending clean energy jobs to other states.

"There were many complex issues still unresolved, so it makes sense to press the pause button to be sure we get the whole package of energy issues properly resolved before moving forward," Marc Joseph, a union attorney who has represented the Coalition of California Utility Employees and the State Building & Construction Trades Council of California in regional grid discussions, told The Desert Sun in September.

Geothermal plants could also play a role in meeting California's clean energy goals, since they can produce climate-friendly energy around the clock. The southern end of the Salton Sea is home to one of the world's most powerful geothermal resources, and new power plants there could have the added benefit of covering up dry lakebed as the sea shrinks, limiting the emission of lung-damaging dust particles.

But the costs of building a geothermal facility are high, and development by the Salton Sea has been almost non-existent in recent years. A last-minute push in Sacramento this year to mandate new geothermal plants at the Salton Sea never gained traction.

One major climate initiative did make it through the Legislature this year: an extension of the state's cap-and-trade program, which requires major polluters to pay for the carbon they emit. It was a top priority for Gov. Brown, but despite his party's supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature, it almost didn't happen. Several moderate Democrats balked at the cap-and-trade extension, which critics said would raise the price of gas.

While climate advocates cheered Mayes' decision, he faced an intense backlash from the Republican base. He stepped down as Assembly Republican leader following opposition from his own caucus, although he defended his cap-and-trade vote, saying Republicans need to change their approach if they want to be a relevant political party in California.

'I've got my head up high and we'll continue to work towards making change,” Mayes told The Desert Sun. "I didn't want to just come to Sacramento and hit the 'no' button all day. I want to make a difference in people's lives, and I think we're doing that."

Assembly Republican Leader Chad Mayes of Yucca Valley leaves the Assembly floor to attend a GOP caucus meeting where he resigned as Assembly GOP Leader on Aug. 24, 2017, in Sacramento. Mayes is leaving his post in September after weeks of pressure from his party over his support for major climate change legislation.(Photo: Rich Pedroncelli/AP)

While the cap-and-trade debate played out in Sacramento, another trend unfolded at the local level. Across the state, including in the Coachella Valley, cities are looking to ditch their electric utilities and form "community choice aggregators," in which local officials decide where to buy energy. The desire for cleaner energy is often a key motivator.

By some estimates, investor-owned utilities like Edison could lose as much as 80 percent of their customer bases to community choice programs over the next decade. That's worrying for the utility industry, but exciting for many clean energy advocates.

"We fully envision having a 100 percent renewable option, so people can opt up to 100 percent renewable if they want to. And that kind of goes along with the benefit of CCAs in general. It’s providing a choice," Isaiah Hagerman, director of administrative services for Rancho Mirage, which is considering community choice, told The Desert Sun. "Before you had none, you were with Southern California Edison. Now you have a choice."

Sammy Roth writes about energy and the environment for The Desert Sun. He can be reached at sammy.roth@desertsun.com, (760) 778-4622 and @Sammy_Roth.

Southern California Energy, Water + Green Living Summit

The Golden State's progress toward its climate and clean energy goals will be one of the topics discussed at the Southern California Energy, Water + Green Living Summit, which will be held Jan. 11 at the Agua Caliente Casino Resort Spa in Rancho Mirage. The Desert Sun and Burke-Rix Communications partner for the annual summit, which brings together industry leaders, politicians and influencers from across Southern California and beyond to tackle the most pressing environmental issues facing our region. Information about the event and how to buy tickets: http://socalenergysummit.org/.