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The Disappearing Lake

Is climate change likely to be a threat multiplier in conflict-prone regions? Under what conditions? What can be done to ameliorate it? These questions broadly capture the focus of my research.

Much literature has sought to quantify the strength of climate-conflict linkages by taking advantage of improvements in climate and conflict data and data computing software. While progress in this direction has provided evidence that validates a relationship between climate and conflict, more evidence-based research is needed to understand the mechanisms behind how and why climate affects conflict

This study is being approached from a transdisciplinary perspective that cuts across three levels, which also reveals the impact the project would have in practical terms.

First, by applying knowledge about livelihoods and vulnerability assessments, the study examines the influence of the receding Lake Chad on rural livelihoods and identifies factors driving current vulnerabilities to climate and conflict (double exposures). This is a critical first step in a study of this nature because it is difficult to understand how climate links to conflict without assessing the vulnerability context in which livelihood assets, capabilities and activities are located.

Second, a conflict database for Lake Chad will be developed which would feed into a climate-conflict model. The model will integrate relevant theories across a range of thematic/disciplinary areas to empirically detect the drivers of causation from climate change to conflict and highlight potential opportunities for interventions.

Third, an assessment of national and international best practices on climate-adaptation, water governance and conflict management will be undertaken. Currently, a research gap exists on how to connect these three issues. Also, there is a lack of consensus concerning what appropriate policy responses for water governance and hydro-conflict will look like for the Lake Chad region. By unpacking how existing best practices fit in with situations in Lake Chad and establishing collaborations with relevant stakeholders, sustainable solutions can be achieved in terms of improved human and rural livelihoods security.

Evidence emerging from my field research (so far) shows that less than a quarter of local hydro-conflicts are reported beyond the village and community boundaries and are often unknown by water management institutions (such as the Lake Chad Basin Commission, the institution managing the resources of the basin) and therefore to a large extent “invisible” to the outside world. By developing a conflict database, this study will provide a key entry into the dynamics of conflict outcomes in the region.

In sum, focusing this research project on Lake Chad, a location within the Sahelian hotspot where the impact of climate change on water is driving several conflicts, makes it a compelling case for understanding how theories in environmental security research, traditional peace and conflict studies and vulnerability literature can be integrated in a modeling study to explain the climate-conflict nexus at sub-national and river basin levels. This is the overarching academic contribution this study seeks to make.

Editor’s Note: This post was originally published to the SSRC’s Next Gen Microsite on April 18, 2014 and is cross-posted to Kujenga-Amani with permission. It is also updated to reflect some new edits.

Uche Okpara is an environmental social scientist working across the social justice, conflict, resource governance and policy dimensions of environmental sustainability. He holds a PhD in Environmental Sustainability from Leeds University in the United Kingdom. Aspects of Uche’s research have appeared in a range of international journals. His research has been presented interdisciplinary and specialist conferences and workshops across the world. Uche is a recipient of several scholarships, fellowships and grants including a 2013 Next Gen Dissertation Research Fellowship. He currently works as a University researcher, consultant and teacher at Leeds.