Week 16 DFS Picks: The Cruel, Cruel Mistress

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: Fantasy Football is a cruel, cruel mistress.

Others might use less derogatory or less complimentary words, but to me, she has and always will be a cruel, cruel mistress. She will seduce you and provide waves of ecstasy. As you ride that wave of pleasure, you will feel like anything is in your power. However, in between those waves, she will dig her stiletto heel into your softest fleshy parts. Even worse, in the end, she will leave you bruised and scarred, in a pool of your own tears, begging her not to leave.

You will cry out to this cruel mistress, “Please! Don’t go. I can take the pain.” And this cruel mistress will simply smile an evil grin, forcing you to worship her even more. You will crawl across the cold, hard floor as the sound of her boots echo out the door. And you’ll be left wondering if it all was worth it. Yes, you say meekly to yourself, yes. She is a cruel, cruel mistress, but she’s worth it.

Ahem. But wondering who is worth taking this week in DFS?

Yes, let’s get to that. Quickly.

Week 16 DFS Picks

GPP Play of the Week

Adam Humphries (DK $3000 FD $4500)

Unlike that cruel mistress, I’m going to do you a solid and provide a deep statistical dive for this week’s pick.

Carolina has one of the better safeties in Mike Adams, who PFF ranked as the 17th highest coverage grade. Therefore, the deep ball is less likely to be an effective tool against the Carolina secondary. Thus, I don’t love DeSean Jackson or Mike Evans this week. The deep route is the former’s specialty; and the latter will see a lot of James Bradberry, who has only given up .88 yards per cover snap. Yet despite Adams and Bradberry, Carolina is still giving up the second most fantasy points to wide receivers. Agree that the Carolina CBs can be beaten on intermediate routes?

Enter Adam Humphries, the Bucs WR3. Looking at last week’s game against Green Bay, it wasn’t Jordy Nelson or Davante Adams who carved the Panthers up, but the Packers WR3 Randall Cobb. Cobb was targeted 14 times last week! If Humphries gets even seven targets, he should easily return a profit on his minimal salary.

Week 16 GPP lineup

I am going fairly conservative this week with one or two exceptions…

QB Russell Wilson (DK $7000 FD $9000)

And that conservatism starts with the top QB option on the board. Yes, Wilson was a huge bust last week, but I am hoping that drives his ownership down. I think he rebounds nicely against Dallas, who is giving up the eighth most QB fantasy points.

RB Todd Gurley (DK $9100 FD $9100)

I’m not stepping off the freight train until it stops.

RB Melvin Gordon (DK $7200 FD $8500)

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I’m going three RB in DraftKings this week and if you are looking to save money in Fan Duel, pivoting to my other RB is not a bad idea. But Gordon is my DFS RB2 this week as the Jets are middle of the road in stopping the run and with Austin Ekeler likely limited to special teams this week, I think Gordon will get the volume worthy of this price.

WR Doug Baldwin (DK $6300 FD $7300)

Baldwin bounces back too. I already told you I was going pretty conservative this week. But you want someone a little more fringe? How about this?

TE Jimmy Graham (DK $4700 FD $6800)

FLEX Carlos Hyde (DK $5000)

The matchup against Jacksonville is going to drive his ownership down. But Jax is even better against the pass, so I would not be surprised if Hyde sees 20+ carries this weekend. And you might be surprised to hear that Carlos Hyde remains a Top 10 PPR RB.

DST Chiefs (DK $3300)

I’ve been telling our inquiring readers all week to start Jarvis Landry and Kenyan Drake this week. I don’t think the KC defense is going to keep the Dolphins under 20 points this week. However, I’m willing to bet on Jay Cutler getting sacked a few times and throwing a few INTS that makes the KC defense well worth the budget-conscious move. You might need to spend down a few places on FanDuel if you want to get the Chiefs or even a better option. I told you she brings the pain sometimes!

K Matt Bryant (FD $5,000)

If you really want to go against the grain, Robbie Gould is a great contrarian pick and since Jimmy G arrived, he’s been on fire. But I’ll take the guy playing in a dome this weekend with two high powered offenses. Boring I know. But boring is sometimes better than the reward and wrath of a cruel mistress, right?

Mark Strausberg remembers making Jerry Rice his first round selection as well as taking a flyer on a young pitcher named Doug Drabek. His Fantasy analysis has spanned multiple sports including football, baseball, basketball, and even golf. A FSWA finalist, his fantasy analysis has been featured in various outlets including but not limited to SI.com, USA Today national magazines, Yahoo! and RotoExperts.