Carney On Forward Guidance and Monetary Policy

Tuesday 17 September 2013

Andre Tyrie, Chair of the Treasury Select Committee questions Mark Carney governor of the Bank of England on forward guidance, and asks who will be picking up on these messages given the markets appear to be pricing in unemployment at 7%; much earlier than BOE guidance indicates. This is pushing interest rates up already which costs the UK government more in interest servicing costs on the national debt; thus slowing the deficit reduction programme, and potentially extending the need for austerity measures.

These are big questions given the US speculation over the next FED chair, QE withdrawal and interest rates, which led to significant volatility in the US.

Carney argues the UK economy is well below historic capacity and production and believes it will take some time to get the recovery secured, for which read employment recovery.

Carney comes across as assured and composed which is not surprising given he is the Global Financial Stability Chair and a highly experienced Central banker. A good hire and committed to transparency so we will likely hear more about the BOEs thinking than under Mervyn King. This does expose the governor to risk but he appears to be up to the challenge and has taken the MPC with him.

UK interest rates and inflation matter to Jersey as we are in the sterling area and tend to map across the UK experience. Too rapid an escalation of interest rates will kill the recovery and crush the housing market, too slow to a rise and we could have inflation out of hand and a housing bubble leading to a crash. The governor has a difficult course to chart, but the calm Canadian may be just the navigator the ship requires.