Second, it's not going to "get rid" of California. 80% of the state will stay where it is. The rest is going to end up offshore in a million years or so. And do you know what that means? All those meth heads in Bakersfield are going to have beachfront property. Is that what you want??

No. In seismology, the words "forecast" and "prediction" are VERY distinct. Forecasts are quite legitimate - giving ratio probabilities on certain sized events on timescales. The science is quite solid, and they hold up quite well.

"Predictions", on the other hand, are total bullshiat. This claims an event on a specific time or by a specific time. If you get the chance, read "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver. He's got a whole chapter on it. Interesting read.

The odds of a major Cascadia earthquake are rather small in any given year, but on the other hand, the consequences are enormous. Consider,export/import in the northwest, Boeing, Microsoft, Bremerton naval base, just to name a few. A tsunami, would likely take out Anchorage and Valdez at the least.

dillengest:Perhaps the subster should have linked to the original CBC article rather than this abortion.

...the region that stretches from the northern tip of Vancouver Island down the coast to northern California has experienced 22 major earthquakes over the last 11,000 years, and is due for another.

...the research showed earthquakes occur every 500 to 1,000 years.The last one took place 313 years ago.

"What that means is we're due (not overdue) for another subduction zone earthquake either tomorrow - or 700 years from now," she said.

Um...no? We're not "due" for 187 years. So between 187 years from now and 687 years from now we'll be due. Before 187 years would be BEFORE we're due. After 687 years would be overdue. How is that confusing you?

Bisu:Um...no? We're not "due" for 187 years. So between 187 years from now and 687 years from now we'll be due. Before 187 years would be BEFORE we're due. After 687 years would be overdue. How is that confusing you?

Anytime a source uses the word "due" when talking about earthquakes is crap.

Bisu:dillengest: Perhaps the subster should have linked to the original CBC article rather than this abortion.

...the region that stretches from the northern tip of Vancouver Island down the coast to northern California has experienced 22 major earthquakes over the last 11,000 years, and is due for another.

...the research showed earthquakes occur every 500 to 1,000 years.The last one took place 313 years ago.

"What that means is we're due (not overdue) for another subduction zone earthquake either tomorrow - or 700 years from now," she said.

Um...no? We're not "due" for 187 years. So between 187 years from now and 687 years from now we'll be due. Before 187 years would be BEFORE we're due. After 687 years would be overdue. How is that confusing you?

Not sure why you think anything's confusing me. The linked article says "overdue" while the actual quote was "due" - that was the limit of my point. Regarding the actual dueness, they recorded 22 events over 11,000 years, so on average one every 500 years. Some of the earthquakes probably clustered at shorter intervals and I assume what they found was that there was never/rarely more than 1,000 years between events. They're saying another major earthquake is almost certain to occur there in the future and, based on their sampling, the next one looks likely to occur sometime between now and 700 years in the future.

TheWizard:ImpendingCynic: cehlen: If it gets rid of California, I am all for it.

Ok, first of all, fark you and wherever it is you live.

Second, it's not going to "get rid" of California. 80% of the state will stay where it is. The rest is going to end up offshore in a million years or so. And do you know what that means? All those meth heads in Bakersfield are going to have beachfront property. Is that what you want??