Jordan: Between Two Genocides

We must bear in mind, then, that there is nothing more
difficult and dangerous, or more doubtful of success, than an attempt to
introduce a new order of things in any state.

– Niccolo Machiavelli

The
rapidly unravelling events in the Occupied Palestinian territories are
undoubtedly of particular concern in Egypt and Jordan, two Mideast regimes that
signed peace treaties with Israel. This is acutely so for the Jordanian
oligarchy. Jordan is declaimed by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, of
Qibya, Sabra, Shattila massacres and other infamy, as the homeland of the
Palestinians. This seemingly serves as a future pretence for his implicit
objective of ethnically cleansing the Occupied Territories.

Jordan now is squeezed
between two ongoing genocides. Iraq, reeling under genocidal UN sanctions, is
threatened with ‘Shock and Awe’ -- a massive bombardment never before unleashed
-- by the world hegemon. There is fear and economic hardship in Iraq, so much
so that Iraqis take refuge by the hundreds of thousands in resource poor
Jordan. There are fears that Mr. Sharon will undertake his Orwellian program of
‘transfer’ during the chaos of war.While Iraqis are streaming in from the East the Israelis might be
ethnically cleansing the Occupied Territories of its indigenous Palestinians to
the West. Jordan will be overwhelmed on both flanks.

Jordan already has a sizable
Palestinian population estimated at anywhere from 40 to 60 %. Other Jordanians,
however, reject the notion that they are a minority. The Sharonian bombast that
Jordan is the Palestinian homeland has been ridiculed as right-wing Israeli
hysteria. But expulsion seems to have found more widespread acceptance in
Israel of late. (1) Indeed Mr. Sharon already did deport
hundreds of young Palestinians men to Jordan in 1971. (2)

None of the inhabitants of
Jordan have forgotten the civil war between the PLO and the forces of former
King Hussein in 1970. Unable to lay claim to any mandate from the people, King
Abdullah relies on an efficient intelligence service and a relatively
well-remunerated and hence obedient military.

The Hashemite Kingdom of
Jordan relishes its characterization as a benign monarchy. In fact, contrary to
the manufactured consent in the mass media, Jordan is an authoritarian
dictatorship. Mr. Abdullah, who is described as a “nice guy” by people who have
met him, maintains a rigid grip on all functions in society despite having no
popular mandate.The prime minister and
cabinet are appointed or dismissed on the King's whim. The parliament is
elected under a very limited form of democracy.

Mr. Abdullah walks a
tightrope between engineering stability for his regime internally and
maintaining friendly relations with the West, particularly the US. Jordan is a
developing country with few natural resources other than phosphate. But it is a
recipient of US aid, bumped over a billion dollars a year recently, and a
free-trade partner of the US. The US is Jordan's number one trading partner. As
such Jordan adheres to the Washington consensus imposed by the IMF, which led
to hobis riots in 1998 and a government crackdown on dissent. Neoliberalism has
not led to any trickle down to the poor majority. Instead corruption runs
rampant and foreigners shy away from investing money. Even the Aqaba Special Economic
Zone, opened behind schedule in early 2001, has disappointed the locals with
its failure to attract so far any substantial economic projects. With this pet
project in doldrums, Mr. Abdullah struggles with a shaky economy and internal
dissension while he simultaneously attempts to appease the US.

The lessons from failure to
tow the US line are clear from the public spanking his father King Hussein
received from the US following the first violence unleashed in The Persian Gulf
War. Mr. Abdullah has despite repeated protestations to the contrary acquiesced
and allowed Americans into Jordan in preparation for the next infliction of
violence on Iraq, albeit Jordan maintains that the Americans are only in Jordan
in a protective role. (3)

Regime change in Iraq will
likely have an enormous impact on Jordan. When war re-intensifies in Iraq,
Jordan will experience an oil pinch. Unlike his father, however, Mr. Abdullah’s
lack of neutrality may see him wind up sitting on the throne of an oil rich
kingdom. (4) Could there be a larger quid pro quo
happening? For admitting US troops into Jordan US aid has been increased but
could it be that there is a tacit agreement to accept a Palestinian exodus from
the Occupied Territories in exchange for an enlarged kingdom? Mr. Abdullah
would do well to bear in mind what became of the last Hashemite to rule in
Iraq. Machiavelli wrote: “He who becomes prince by aid of the nobles will have
more difficulty in maintaining himself than he who arrives at that high station
by the aid of the people.” (5)

Kim Petersen is an English teacher living
in China, who previously lived in Jordan for two years. Email: kotto2001@hotmail.com