Every good ending needs a good story

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The
conventional wisdom is that March 9 was the turning point in
this market—the moment when everything righted itself
and a seven-month rally emerged seemingly out of thin air. But
the truth is, the moment of change happened at the end of
February, not the second week of March.

We know this because it was during that last week of
February when our data, which tracks the tone of conversations
going on among the major players of Wall Street, isolated a
positive turn in sentiment that had been missing for more than
half a year.

Citigroup's stock didn't jump 23.8% on March 10 because it
was more confident about its financial position; it jumped
because two weeks earlier market players had decided to look
for any data that would allow them to demonstrate renewed
bullishness.