NCAAF Picks

Our college football handicapping professional takes an early look at Saturday’s SEC contest between Ole Miss and Florida. Which one of these nationally ranked teams will remain undefeated at the conclusion of this contest? Go inside in order to find out.

Rebels and Gators in “The Swamp” on Saturday
Two unbeaten SEC teams collide on Saturday when #25 Florida (4-0) hosts #3 Ole Miss. The opening kickoff at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville is slated for 7:00 PM ET, and the game will be aired on ESPN. Ole Miss is currently (10/1) a 7.0 point favorite according to college football odds at The Greek. In a strange scheduling quirk, these SEC rivals haven’t met since 2008. Ole Miss pulled off a road 31-30 upset in that contest as a 22.5 point underdog. That was the only regular season loss suffered by Florida during that national championship season. That Gators team was coached by Urban Meyer, and also possessed 2008 Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Tim Tebow.

Ole Miss Escapes Trap Game
In my betting preview article on last Saturday’s Vanderbilt and Ole Miss contest, I hinted that it would be a a trap game for Ole Miss. By no means was I suggesting an outright upset by Vanderbilt, but I simply liked the Commodores as a huge road underdog. The game was actually tied 13-13 late in the 3rd quarter before Ole Miss pulled away for a 27-16 home win. My logic for that pick was Ole Miss had just come off a monumental win against Alabama in Tuscaloosa the week before, and had Florida coming up next. The bottom line is they escaped victorious, and maintained their #3 national ranking.

Florida off a Stunning Comeback Win
Things weren’t looking very promising last week for Florida. They trailed Tennessee at home 27-14 in the 4th quarter and were having a difficult time stopping the Volunteers running game. However, they proceeded to score two touchdowns in the last 4:45 of the game and steal a 28-27 win. The go ahead 63 yard touchdown pass came on a 4th and 14 with just 1:45 left to go. Florida has now seen their last three wins over East Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee come by a combined 13 points. Since 2010, Florida has gone 4-9 ATS as a conference underdog of 2.5 or more, and lost eleven of those thirteen games straight up. After going 8 years without being a home underdog, this will be the fifth time the Gators will be in that role since 2011, and they’ve gone 1-3 ATS during the previous four.

Final Analysis
Unlike Tennessee, Ole Miss is a more balanced offensive attack. As a matter of fact, the Rebels had 321 yards or more passing in each of their first four games, and have also averaged 199 yards rushing per contest. I see this game being tight for awhile, but Florida just doesn’t possess enough offensive firepower to stay with Ole Miss for an entire four quarters. I like the road favorite in this contest for one of my college football picks.