Daily Headline – 25/01/13

Tensions high on the Korean peninsula

Following on from North Korea’s successful satellite launch last month the UN has imposed more economic sanctions.

In response to this action North Korea have upped the ante by threatening to conduct more nuclear tests, targeted at the US.

The US and North Korea have major trust issues with each other and both are justified in this. North Korea is a family run dictatorship that has attacked South Korea before and the US is to date the only country that has used nuclear weapons killing almost 250,000 people, men, women and children. The US has also been to war with more countries that anyone else since the end of WW2.

So will the Korean War of 1950-53 (which has technically not ended) resume? Who will strike first? And which countries will get involved?

Of course North Korea and South Korea will fight each other but who else…
The US could see this very real nuclear threat as an opportunity to finish off the previous failed attempt to take over North Korea and remove its leadership while gaining the backing of the UN.
Japan, which is a big supporter of the US and vehemently anti-North Korea could be on hand to lend some support though their role may be limited to logistics.
In support of the North, last time around, China came to the rescue however China has also started to voice concerns about the North. While it’s possible that China could decide to remain neutral should war break out. I would say that it’s more likely that China will send in the troops again seeing that being given a choice between Kim Jong-un or the US on their border they will choose Kim Jong-un.
Last time around Russia lended some support to the North, mostly aerial, I think that this is less likely (but still possible of course). Things politically have changed in Russia since the early 50’s and support for the North seems to be over (at least compared to then).

Winners/losers/outcome

Well much like the last time it all depends on China, if China supports the North with military fire power and troops on the ground a win is possible for the North and Korea will once again be united. If China doesn’t get involved then a South Korean/US victory is certain and the country will also be united again.

Either way, just like the last time war broke out on the Korean peninsula, millions of people would be likely to lose their lives, mostly civilians.