A warm and dry Southwest, but mostly wet up North

The September-October-November outlook calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures in Arizona and portions of southern California, southern Nevada, and southwest Utah. Southern Florida will likewise be warmer than normal.

For that same period, cooler-than-normal temperatures will prevail along the western coastline, the midsection of the country, and the upper Northeast.

For October-November-December, the warm area will spread to cover most of New Mexico, southern Texas, and southernmost Louisiana. Florida’s warmth will move up to cover about two-thirds of the state. It will be cooler than normal in the Dakotas, eastern Montana, and northwest Minnesota.

Looking at November-December-January, the temperature map is virtually the same as October-November-December.

Wetter, too

The precipitation forecast for September-October-November shows wetter-than-normal conditions in the Northwest and in eastern Montana, eastern Wyoming, the Dakotas, Kansas, Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the upper peninsula of Michigan. A wet area also stretches from eastern Texas across to northern Florida.

It will be drier than normal in Arizona, southern California, southern Nevada, and southern Utah.

The October-November-December period indicates greater-than-normal precipitation across much of the northern tier of states, from northern California to western New York, and dipping south to include Arkansas, Tennessee, and portions of Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Alabama. Arizona will continue to be drier than normal.

In November-December-January, the wetter-than-normal area will have a portion of the Central states and most of the Southern states return to normal, while the rest of the region remains wet.

The dry area expands from Arizona to southwest New Mexico and southwest Texas. Florida, southern Georgia, and the southeast portion of South Carolina will also be dry.

Note that once you are within the time period of an outlook, short- and medium-range forecasts and climate observations should be considered.

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