A big weekend for California Democrats -- Conservatives line up to prevent Warren win

CALIFORNIA PLAYBOOK -- per David Siders and Carla Marinucci -- With President Donald Trump in a tailspin and the Republican House majority appearing increasingly vulnerable, what happens here at the California Democratic Party state convention this weekend will reverberate across the map.

Featuring as many as seven vulnerable GOP-controlled House seats, this solidly blue state is key to flipping the House in 2018. But when more than 3,000 activists in the nation’s largest Democratic Party gather this weekend in Sacramento to forge opposition strategy and choose new party leadership, the state party’s internal squabbles will also be closely watched.

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The lingering bitterness between the factions of Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton from the 2016 election, observers say, is dominating the contest over who will steer the huge party apparatus in the nation’s fundraising ATM heading into the next election cycle.

The unusually close and contentious campaign to succeed longtime party icon John Burton as state Democratic chair pits a hard-scrabble Democratic operative and well-known gay activist, Los Angeles vice chair Eric Bauman, against an African-American mother of two and relative party newcomer, Kimberly Ellis. Like many Berniecrats, Ellis argues that Democrats in the nation’s most populous state need “new faces and new voices” to successfully counter Republicans in the coming cycles. http://politi.co/2pSGzij

MASSACHUSETTS PLAYBOOK -- per Lauren Dezenski -- If you go to one of Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s speeches, chances are you’ll hear about a bipartisan bill she’s excited to push alongside Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley that would open the market to over-the-counter hearing aids. The pitch is simple enough, as Warren puts it, an example of how members of Congress on both sides of the aisle can come together to support a bill that can make a difference in people’s lives.

But storm clouds are brewing. Over the last few weeks, conservative groups like Gun Owners of America and coalitions including the Center for Freedom and Prosperity and the National Tax-Limitation Committee are pushing House Republicans to kill the bill — they don’t support the new regulations the bill would create, but the subtext, as one Republican consultant told me yesterday, is that they don’t want the Republicans supporting this bill to give Elizabeth Warren a political win ahead of her presumed presidential run.

The bill still has a clear path forward. It enjoys a healthy amount of support and the House version of the bill (co-sponsored by Rep. Joe Kennedy III) passed an important subcommittee vote on the Hill yesterday. Either way, the intent to highlight and organize against Warren’s role shows just how far some Republicans are already willing to go to hold the line against the progressive icon ahead of 2020. http://politi.co/2qywANW

ILLINOIS PLAYBOOK -- per Natasha Korecki -- Frustrations are building in Springfield as major legislation begins to move — or stall — with an end-of-session deadline looming. Among those boiling over: state Sen. Andy Manar, a Democrat who has acted as a key school funding negotiator.

In an interview with POLITICO last night, Manar accused Gov. Bruce Rauner’s administration of “leaking fake documents to a politically-connected publication,” to undermine a school funding bill that passed the Senate a day earlier.

Manar says he was asked to meet with the governor’s administration twice on Thursday — to discuss school funding reform. Manar said Rauner’s team was still in negotiating mode — even though the Senate had already passed SB1 35-18. The deal had been part of the so-called Grand Bargain, but after Republican votes fell off, Democrats started moving pieces without them. Republicans complained they weren’t ready to vote.

While in the governor’s office, Manar said he saw a spreadsheet with school districts and attached dollar amounts expected under the bill that just passed. Except, he said, the numbers were wrong. He said he immediately raised it with the group.

He said the story contained the same data that he had just seen in the governor’s office. Proft, the recipient of millions of dollars from Rauner as a political operative, oversees a chain of 20 publications. That had Manar fearing that bad district-specific information would spread across the state.

“No one in Kankakee County will lose a penny,” he said. “Everyone in Kankakee will get more,” under the bill as passed, he said.

Manar lashed out at the governor’s office.

“This looks a lot like the Rauner administration is leaking fake documents to a politically connected publication to manufacture problems that don’t exist so Republican members can cleanse their ‘no’ votes — and avoid being thrown under the bus by their governor,” Manar charged.

The governor’s office called it a “wild accusation.”

“This claim is false, and Manar is just trying to paper over the fact that he just ran a Chicago bailout yesterday,” said Rauner spokeswoman Catherine Kelly. “Rather than making false, wild accusations, they should stop the partisan politics and return to the negotiating table to achieve a bipartisan school funding formula that meets the needs of all students in the state.”

NEW YORK PLAYBOOK -- per Jimmy Vielkind and Azi Paybarah -- Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan, the cliche goes. And a shiny new subway system spawns a thousand photo ops, but one that’s collapsing finds them all traveling by car, pointing fingers. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, facing reporters for the first time in more than a week, attempted to distance himself from the state-created Metropolitan Transportation Authority — whose chairman and CEO he appoints and whose board he effectively controls.

But as our colleague Dana Rubinstein elegantly points out, Cuomo was delighted to wrap himself around the M.T.A. just six months ago, as the Second Avenue Subway opened to riders after decades of planning. And he’s installed loyal aides that give him a handle on the authority’s everyday operations. As the Times recounts, the M.T.A. was originally cooked up by the administration of Nelson Rockefeller as a way to subsidize money-losing subways with the tolls from bridges and tunnels. Transportation around the region needed to be considered regionally — it made sense then and now, and it’s why Mayor Bill de Blasio has brushed aside complaints about service and parried the occasional call for him to take a more active management role. http://politi.co/1gJSEwx

FLORIDA PLAYBOOK -- per Marc Caputo -- In a “do or die” special election for Florida Democrats, party financiers and advisers say state Rep. Daisy Baez has begun confiding in them that she’s strongly considering dropping out of her nascent state Senate campaign Friday after the Miami Herald reported she might be violating a legislative residency law.

The pressure for Baez to quit mounted once focus groups and a Democratic poll showed she was unknown and would come in third against former state Rep. Ana Rivas Logan and well-known perennial candidate Annette Taddeo, who sources said is the clear frontrunner in the July 25 primary for the 40th Senate District.

The Miami Herald reported Tuesday that Baez might be violating the state Constitution because she doesn’t appear to live in her state House district. And Baez doesn’t live in the 40th Senate District, either. She then began consulting an attorney and is coming to the realization that it’s best if she instead run for reelection to her House seat as she manages her residency problem. Baez could not be reached for comment.

“The fact is, this seat is do or die for us,” said a Democratic campaign insider with knowledge of the discussions between Baez and party leaders. “The data shows Daisy can’t win. And now she has other problems.” http://politi.co/2rluu5r

NEW JERSEY PLAYBOOK -- per Matt Friedman -- The gubernatorial primary debates are over. What last night’s Republican debate made clear is that Kim Guadagnowants to audit everything. Her plan to “audit Trenton” was a near-universal fallback for every question at the debate last night. At one point in the press room, Michael Aron asked her what her plan to fund the Transportation Trust Fund would be in lieu of a gas tax increase. I jokingly blurted out “audit” — but then, yes, that was part of her answer. Also, did you know Jack Ciattarelli is an MBA/CPA? He said that a few times. It’s like how Steve Sweeney sometimes mentions he’s an ironworker.

After the debate, lobbyist Roger Bodman analyzed it on NJTV. “You can’t win these debates. You can only lose them. And I didn’t see any of these people lose them.” I think that’s true. But what’s the state of the race right now? It’s hard to tell when there’s been minimal public polling. http://politi.co/1WdOXgU