Why ‘Allegiant’ Might Signal the End of Days for Dystopian YA Movies

“The Divergent Series: Allegiant,” the third film in Lionsgate’s once-hot “Divergent” franchise, is tracking for a $30 million to $40 million weekend, significantly less than its predecessors — which both opened in the mid-$50 million range.

It’s the latest sign that dystopian young-adult movies, once a hot commodity with audiences and studios alike in the aftermath of the first “Hunger Games” movies, face a future as bleak as their onscreen landscapes.

Recent attempts to launch new YA franchises like “The Giver” and “The 5th Wave” have sputtered at the box office, and interest in existing series like “The Maze Runner” and “Divergent” seems to have tapered off. And studios and producers who rushed to grab rights to just about any book on a YA best-seller list have been slow to greenlight any new ones.

“The YA sub-genre definitely seems to be moving past its prime at the box office,” BoxOffice.com senior analyst Shawn Robbins told TheWrap. “That’s not to say there won’t still be successful or profitable movies of a similar ilk, and there are still plenty of loyal fans out there, but studios should be paying attention to the law of diminishing returns that’s setting in.”

It wasn’t so long ago that YA adaptations were the hottest thing in Hollywood. With the tremendous success of the “Twilight” series, which began in 2008 and cumulatively grossed $1.3 billion domestically, studios rushed into making more.

Last fall’s final “Hunger Games” movie was the weakest box office of the four-film series. And Fox’s “Maze Runner: Scorch Trials” similarly topped out at $81.7 million, significantly under the $102.4 million gross of the 2014 original film despite a budget that was almost twice as big.

Other recent attempts at launching franchises have similarly sputtered.

In January, Chloe Grace Moretz‘s “The 5th Wave” opened with just $10.3 million and topped out at $34 million, scuttling hopes for a lucrative film franchise based on Rick Yancey‘s best-selling trilogy.

That under-performer followed similar misfires like 2014’s “Vampire Academy,” which grossed just $7.8 million domestically, “The Giver” ($45 million) and 2013’s “Mortal Instruments” ($31.3 million).

Even movies that performed slightly better at the domestic box office, like 2011’s “I Am Number Four,” ($55.1 million) and “Ender’s Game” ($61.7 million), failed to perform well enough to justify big-screen sequels.

It’s no wonder that a slew of hit YA book properties that studios snapped up at the height of the boom remain stalled in development, without a greenlight on the horizon. These include Lionsgate’s “Chaos Walking,” Fox’s “The Young Elites,” New Line’s “Raven Boys,” CBS Films’ “Legend” and Palomar Pictures’ “The Immortal Rules.”

Industry insiders point to several factors in the weaker performance of YA movies, from the interchangeability of the stories to overall audience fatigue with the genre.

Many think that “The Hunger Games” set too high a bar for dystopian imitators to follow. “‘Hunger Games’ made such an indelible impression that it became such a gold standard for YA movies,” comScore senior analyst Paul Dergarabedian told TheWrap. “All the copycats came along, and they were hoping they could ride that wave of popularity.”

Others point to the fickleness of the target audience. “The YA audience is very difficult to pin down and very difficult to figure out,” said Dergarabedian. “They might think that something is cool one day, but the next day, it’s no longer cool.”

Plus, the teenage audience is quick to age out — both growing out of things they liked as teens and replaced by younger audiences with interests all their own. The initial teen fan base loyal to the “Twilight” series are into their 20s now, and today’s teens were in elementary school when the Bella-Edward love story hit the screen.

“The ‘Twilight’ films set the stage for billions of dollars at the worldwide box office because they were perfectly targeted to the audience and they were fresh and new, and for the younger audiences, they thought, ‘Wow, they are building this franchise for me,'” Dergarabedian said. “But as all teenagers do, they moved on.”

Additionally, Dergarabedian believes that although YA movies will continue to be made, Hollywood is suffering from a dystopia burnout at the moment.

“The YA genre is not over,” he said. “The dystopian genre? That’s kind of tough because there have been so many… That audience is saying, ‘What else have you got for us?'”

17 Promising Actors Under 17 (Photos)

Abraham Attah

Age: 15

As the lead of Netflix film "Beasts of No Nation," Attah shows strong promise as the child solder Agu fighting in a civil war somewhere in Africa.

Attah is also expected to play in "Spider-Man: Homecoming."

Aubrey Anderson-Emmons

Age: 9

The young star who took the comedy world by storm at age 4 has grown up with her character, Lily Tucker-Pritchett, on "Modern Family.”

Bailee Madison

Age: 17

A veteran of the small screen, with gigs in multiple Disney shows and films, Madison most recently starred in ABC Family's "The Fosters," and ABC's "Once Upon A Time.”

Cameron Boyce

Age: 17

As part of this generation's core group of Disney Channel stars, Boyce has landed title roles in two of the network's shows, as well as the role of Cruella de Vil's son in the Disney Channel movie "The Descendants.”

Finn Wolfhard

Age: 14

Although Canadian actor, Finn Wolfhard had an acting career before "Stranger Things," it was the Netflix series that propelled him into the limelight. The series won a SAG award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series.

Jacob Tremblay

Age: 10

The actor appeared in "Smurfs 2" and "Before I Wake" before landing the role of a boy born and raised in a tiny backyard shed with his abducted mother in "Room." Tremblay earned a SAG Award nomination for Best Supporting Actor.

Jared Gilmore

Age: 16

Though starring as Don Draper's son Bobby in "Mad Men" was his claim to fame, Gilmore is most well-known as the plot-driving Henry Mills in "Once Upon a Time.”

Joey King

Age: 17

Audiences are familiar with this doe-eyed child star based on her roles in "Ramona and Beezus," "Crazy, Stupid, Love," and "Wish I Was Here." She will star in two of 2016's most anticipated films, "Stargirl" and "Independence Day: Resurgence.”

Kiernan Shipka

Age: 17

Best known as the bright, curious daughter of Don Draper in "Mad Men," Shipka has racked up projects with Emma Roberts and Meg Ryan.

Mackenzie Foy

Age: 16

The star has scored coveted roles as Renesmee in "Breaking Dawn" and a young Murph in "Interstellar."

Max Charles

Age: 13

Charles has taken on a variety of roles in his five-year career -- from voicing Sherman in "Peabody and Sherman" to starring as Bradley Cooper's son in "American Sniper" -- and he's not even a teenager yet.

Millie Bobbie Brown

Age: 13

Millie Bobbie Brown made her acting debut on the popular ABC show "Once Upon a Time" as Young Alice. She rose to stardom when she played the role of Eleven on Netflix's "Stranger Things."

Quvenzhané Wallis

Age: 13

The youngest ever Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominee for "Beast of the Southern Wild" at age 9, Wallis went on to appear in films like "12 Years a Slave" and "Annie." Find her next in "Fathers and Daughters" alongside Amanda Seyfried and Russell Crowe.

Rohan Chand

Age: 13/14

Chand has already landed big-time films like "Lone Survivor" and "The Hundred-Foot Journey," but the young actor is on the verge of the biggest role of his career so far -- Mowgli in the live-action reincarnation of "The Jungle Book: Origins.”

Rowan Blanchard

Age: 15

As the face of "Girl Meets World," a spinoff of the '90s sitcom, Blanchard plays Corey Matthews' daughter, who embodies the quirk and charm of her father's teenage self.

Sean Giambrone

Age: 16

Giambrone has filled some big shoes as the 11-year-old reincarnation of "The Goldbergs" show creator Adam Goldberg.

Willow Shields

Age: 16

Best known for her role as Katniss' younger sister Prim in "The Hunger Games" franchise, Shields recently took the stage for Season 20 of "Dancing With the Stars.”

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Quvenzhané Wallis and Jacob Tremblay may be too young to drive, but they’re among the best and brightest of young Hollywood