Astros face second-toughest schedule

The Angels, who are among the AL West's big spenders, signed Mike Trout to a six-year, $144.5 million contract extension.

The Angels, who are among the AL West's big spenders, signed Mike Trout to a six-year, $144.5 million contract extension.

Photo: Luis Sinco, MBR

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The Rangers were 17-2 against the Astros in 2013, which only enhances the natural geographic rivalry between the two AL West clubs.

The Rangers were 17-2 against the Astros in 2013, which only enhances the natural geographic rivalry between the two AL West clubs.

Photo: Karen Warren, Staff

Astros face second-toughest schedule

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The Astros played the third-toughest schedule in the majors last season, per one ranking, and they might be in for a greater trial in 2014.

The website FanGraphs used the comprehensive statistic wins above replacement to calculate last year's strength of schedule for all teams once the regular season was over. The Blue Jays and Yankees had it tougher than the Astros; the Braves were granted the path of least resistance.

This year, an Astros internal projection has the team playing the second-toughest schedule in the majors, behind the Orioles. As with any projection, reality can tell a different story, but the idea remains the same: The Astros are in a tough division.

"According to one methodology, if you buy into that methodology, we have the second-toughest schedule in baseball," general manager Jeff Luhnow said. "There's no question we have a very tough schedule, regardless of how you look at it.

"We have so many games in our division. Our division is very strong with the Rangers and the Angels and the A's and the Mariners; (all) have really substantially invested in their team this offseason."

Talent from top to bottom

Robinson Cano was the biggest name to join the American League West this winter, signing a 10-year, $240 million deal with the Mariners. The Angels have Albert Pujols healthy and signed Mike Trout to a six-year, $144.5 million contract extension. The A's and Rangers were hurt by injuries this spring, but they've paced the division in recent years.

The Rangers were 17-2 against the Astros last season.

In late March, the website Baseball Prospectus simulated the 2014 season 50,000 times. The Astros won the division .4 percent of the time and made the playoffs just 1.3 percent of the time. In one simulation, they won 99 games.

As of Friday, the website projected the Angels to go 90-72, the A's 86-76, the Mariners 82-80, the Rangers 82-80 and the Astros 67-95. A competing website, FanGraphs, projected the same record for the Astros but with a different finishing order in the division: Rangers (85-77), Angels (85-77), A's (84-78), Mariners (82-80), Astros.

"So we've got our work cut out for us, and outside of the division's no easier," Luhnow said. "We face teams like Detroit and the Yankees and Red Sox and Tampa, but that's OK. We know we get to play good teams regularly, and that should help us become a better team more quickly."

It's worth noting that Prospectus' projection has just three teams reaching the 90-win plateau and FanGraphs just one, which isn't realistic. Eleven teams won at least 90 games last season.

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Teams have to play division rivals 19 times a year but play other American League teams roughly six times each.

Stuart Sternberg, the principal owner of the Rays, has been one of the most outspoken advocates for a more balanced schedule. The Rays have turned themselves into a model franchise for maintaining competitiveness in a division where heavyweights like the Red Sox and Yankees have long thrown around bigger contracts than most teams can imagine.

What if the Rays played in the National League East? Only one NL East team, the Phillies, made the top 15 of FanGraphs' strength of schedule list last year, and that was in a tie for 15th place.

They call it the streak

But Astros manager Bo Porter thinks strength of schedule can be overemphasized because of how teams move between hot and cold streaks.

"In major league baseball, you're going to play a quality team every night," Porter said. "I think you can look at a schedule at the start of the season - scheduling is all about when you play someone.

"Are you getting them when they're hot? Are you getting them when they're cold? Are you getting them when they've had a rash of injuries? … I don't think you can really project those components because you just don't know."

For the Astros, there's not even the potential of a snub to complain about. Not at this stage. They won't miss the playoffs because they play the A's too much.

Opportunity to improve

The difficulty their schedule presents could be beneficial, as a learning tool.

That can be overhyped, though. It might be a help to play the toughest teams more often than most. But, in two years, Astros players probably won't look back and credit the schedule-makers for their hardened attitudes and improved skills.

"I just know that we've got to pay attention to every detail and do everything we can to win every game," Luhnow said, "and when we're playing really good teams - really strong teams with good players - we have to be exquisitely focused on doing things the right way and maximizing what we're able to do out there.

"I do think, like anybody that's been through athletic progression, if you play players that are better than you, you improve more quickly than if you play players that are below you in individual sports.

"I think the same theory applies to team sports. The more you are in tough situations, the more you are battle-tested and ready to go."