Factors shaping the distribution of mesophotic octocorals (30-200 m depth) remain poorly understood, potentially leaving overlooked coral areas, particularly near their bathymetric and geographic distributional limits. Yet, detailed knowledge about habitat requirements is crucial for conservation of sensitive gorgonians. Here we use Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) relating thirteen environmental predictors and a highly comprehensive presence dataset, enhanced by SCUBA diving surveys, to investigate the suitable habitat of an important structuring species, Paramuricea clavata, throughout its distribution (Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic). Models showed that temperature (11.5-25.5 degrees C) and slope are the most important predictors carving the niche of P. clavata. Prediction throughout the full distribution (TSS 0.9) included known locations of P. clavata alongside with previously unknown or unreported sites along the coast of Portugal and Africa, including seamounts. These predictions increase the understanding of the potential distribution for the northern Mediterranean and indicate suitable hard bottom areas down to > 150 m depth. Poorly sampled habitats with predicted presence along Algeria, Alboran Sea and adjacent Atlantic coasts encourage further investigation. We propose that surveys of target areas from the predicted distribution map, together with local expert knowledge, may lead to discoveries of new P. clavata sites and identify priority conservation areas.

Biogeography is primarily concerned with the spatial distribution of biodiversity, including performing scenarios in a changing environment. The efforts deployed to develop species distribution models have resulted in predictive tools, but have mostly remained correlative and have largely ignored biotic interactions. Here we build upon the theory of island biogeography as a first approximation to the assembly dynamics of local communities embedded within a metacommunity context. We include all types of interactions and introduce environmental constraints on colonization and extinction dynamics. We develop a probabilistic framework based on Markov chains and derive probabilities for the realization of species assemblages, rather than single species occurrences. We consider the expected distribution of species richness under different types of ecological interactions. We also illustrate the potential of our framework by studying the interplay between different ecological requirements, interactions and the distribution of biodiversity along an environmental gradient. Our framework supports the idea that the future research in biogeography requires a coherent integration of several ecological concepts into a single theory in order to perform conceptual and methodological innovations, such as the switch from single-species distribution to community distribution.

The FishMed database provides traits, phylogeny, current and projected species distribution of Mediterranean fishes, and associated sea surface temperature (SST) from the regional oceanic model NEMOMED8. Data for the current geographical distributions of 635 Mediterranean fish species were compiled from a published expert knowledge atlas of fishes of the northern Atlantic and the Mediterranean (FNAM) edited between 1984 and 1986 and from an updated exotic fish species list. Two future sets of projected species distributions were obtained for the middle and end of the 21st century by using an ensemble forecasting approach for 288 coastal Mediterranean fish species based on SST according to the IPPC/SRES A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. The functional part of the database encompasses 12 biological and ecological traits (maximal and common lengths, vertical distribution, habitat, migration type, mode of reproduction, sex shift, semelparity, diet type (larvae and adults), social behavior, species origin, and depth) for the 635 fish species. To build the phylogeny we inferred the timing and geographic origins of Mediterranean teleost species diversity using nucleotide sequences collected from GenBank including 62% of Mediterranean teleost species plus nine outgroups. Maximum likelihood Bayesian phylogenetic and dating analyses were calibrated using 20 fossil species. An additional 124 fish species were grafted onto the chronogram according to their taxonomic affinity to obtain a phylogenetic tree including 498 species. Finally we also present the associated SST data for the observed period (1961–1980) and for the middle (2040–2059) and the end of the 21st century (2080–2099) obtained from NEMOMED8 according to the IPCC A2 scenario. The FishMed database might be of interest in the context of global anthropogenic changes as coastal Mediterranean ecosystems are currently recognized as one of the most impacted ecosystems on earth.

Ensemble niche modelling has become a common framework to predict changes in assemblages composition under climate change scenarios. The amount of uncertainty generated by the different components of this framework has rarely been assessed. In the marine realm forecasts have usually focused on taxa representing the top of the marine food-web, thus overlooking their basal component: the plankton. Calibrating environmental niche models at the global scale, we modelled the habitat suitability of 106 copepod species and estimated the dissimilarity between present and future zooplanktonic assemblages in the surface Mediterranean Sea. We identified the patterns (species replacement versus nestedness) driving the predicted dissimilarity, and quantified the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources: environmental niche models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, circulation model configurations and species prevalence. Our results confirm that the choice of the niche modelling method is the greatest source of uncertainty in habitat suitability projections. Presence-only and presence-absence methods provided different visions of the niches, which subsequently lead to different future scenarios of biodiversity changes. Nestedness with decline in species richness is the pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future copepod assemblages. Our projections contrast with those reported for higher trophic levels, suggesting that different components of the pelagic food-web may respond discordantly to future climatic changes.

Liu et al. (2018) used a virtual species approach to test the effects of outliers on species distribution models. In their simulations, they applied a threshold value over the simulated suitabilities to generate the species distributions, suggesting that using a probabilistic simulation approach would have been more complex and yield the same results. Here, we argue that using a probabilistic approach is not necessarily more complex and may significantly change results. Although the threshold approach may be justified under limited circumstances, the probabilistic approach has multiple advantages. First, it is in line with ecological theory, which largely assumes non-threshold responses. Second, it is more general, as it includes the threshold as a limiting case. Third, it allows a better separation of the relevant intervening factors that influence model performance. Therefore, we argue that the probabilistic simulation approach should be used as a general standard in virtual species studies.