'We
have removed 300 000 dead voters' - ZEC

HARARE - Under-fire Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission (ZEC) claims over 60 000 new voters have registered in time for
this year’s polls while about 345 400 names of deceased people have been
struck off the national voters’ roll in the last five months.The latest
developments bring the total number of registered voters to almost 5, 7
million.

In 2008, the national voters’ roll stood at 5 934 769. The figure
had been trimmed to 5 589 355 by last November after which it rose to 5 651
600.

Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) chairperson, Justice Rita Makarau,
said many Zimbabweans were showing interest to register as voters as the
harmonised elections drew closer.She said contrary to claims by some
political parties that the roll was full of dead people, the voters’
register was being updated constantly.

“We are noticing a growing interest to
register as voters. Currently, there are 5 651 600 voters registered on the
national roll,” she said.

“Our voters’ roll is not static, but, is updated
from time to time to accommodate additions and removals. Voter registration
is continuous and people can register as voters at the various centers
across the country.”Justice Makarau said the mobile voter registration
exercise, which was expected to begin in January this year, would be rolled
out once funds were available adding that her commission was ready to run
this year’s plebiscite.

“As soon as our funding position permits, it is
the intention of ZEC to ensure that the Registrar-General of Voters embarks
on a mobile voter registration exercise so that we bring registration to the
people rather that requesting them to travel to registration
centres.

“ZEC is prepared to hold an election in accordance to the Electoral
Law as soon as proclamation of the polling is gazetted. ZEC requires
adequate time to prepare for elections within the time frame laid by the
law; whatever number of days that may translate into.”

Responding to
allegations that the March 16 referendum outcome was inaccurate, Justice
Makarau said the commission had not received any formal objection to the
referendum result.

“In terms of the Electoral Law, the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission has the sole responsibility to announce the results and anybody
who purports to do so will be acting contrary to the law.

“In fact, the
Chief Elections Officer is legally authorised to announce election results.
Any other announcements are not only unlawful but without any legal force or
effect,’’ she added.

Zimbabwe is due to hold harmonised elections this year
following the March 16 referendum which endorsed the Draft Constitution.
Although prospective voters have been registering at designated centres,
mobile registration, which usually draws much larger numbers, has been on
hold owing to a lack of funds.

Meanwhile, three members from the National
Youth Development Trust (NYDT) in Bulawayo, who were arrested on Wednesday
over a voter mobilisation exercise, were released on the same day without
charge.

Garikai Mhendo, Lucky Mutiti, and a third member identified only as
Mayibongwe, were released Wednesday evening, after spending the whole day
being interrogated by officers at Pumula Police Station.

It is understood
that the police quizzed the trio over their motives for conducting the voter
awareness exercise.

Liberty Bhebhe, who heads the NYDT, told media from
Washington that his colleagues were arrested on allegations that they were
buying Econet mobile phone lines for youths to enable them to
register.However, no evidence of this was found forcing the police to
release the three who were represented by Bulawayo lawyer Nontokozo
Dube-Tachiwona.

“As a youth organisation most of our members are young people
who do not own homes or properties. As a result, providing proof of address
is difficult for them especially when they have to register as voters,”
Bhebhe said.

Concerned that this was affecting eligible residents’
participation in electoral processes, the NYDT devised a plan which involves
using sim-card certificates issued by mobile phone network Econet, which
contain acceptable proof of residence.

It was during the process of
encouraging residents to use these certificates to register that Mhendo,
Mutiti, and Mayibongwe were arrested outside Pumula Housing Office.

The
housing office doubles up as the Registrar-General’s office where residents
from Pumula and the surrounding residential suburbs can register to
vote.As reported by SW Radio Africa Wednesday, a lot of tenants in the
suburb are lodgers (a scheme where landlords sublet rooms to tenants) and
therefore face problems getting the letters confirming their tenant-status
from landlords.

This is not the first time that the NYDT has been
targeted by the police over its voter and civic education efforts.In
February, heavily armed officers raided the organisation’s offices looking
for ‘illegal voter registration certificates’. This was in response to a
nationwide campaign by the Trust, which was encouraging youths to register
to vote in the March constitutional referendum and the forthcoming national
polls.

However the officers went away empty-handed, with a threat to return
at a later date: “We suspect the police were just after frustrating our work
and these latest arrests are meant to intimidate and harass us.

“There is
nothing illegal in encouraging and educating citizens, particularly young
people, about their voting rights ahead of a crucial general election,”
Bhebhe said.

Malaria
wipes out 21 in one week

Sunday, 14 April 2013 15:05HARARE - At least 100
people have succumbed to malaria since January, with over a fifth of the
deaths recorded last week alone.

Officials say the majority of the cases
were recorded in Manicaland Province.

Statistics just released by the
ministry of Health and Child Welfare show that about 200 000 malaria cases
have been reported since the beginning of the year.

According to the
statistics, 19 536 cases and 21 deaths were recorded last week
alone.

“Of the cases reported 3 417 (17,5 percent) and five deaths were
(people) under the age of five years,” reads the report.

Mutare was
the most affected with six deaths, followed by Chimanimani, which recorded
three deaths last week.

“The provinces which reported the highest number
of malaria cases were Manicaland (8 393) and Mashonaland Central (4 409),”
reads the report.

Mutoko, Buhera and Makonde were third highest with two
fatalities each. In Harare two people died, one at Harare Hospital and
another at Parirenyatwa Hospital.

Mwenezi, Chiredzi, Chirimhanzu and
Bindura recorded one death each.

Officials say while government and other
stakeholders have been focussing on issues such as HIV and cholera, malaria
is fast growing into a silent killer.

Donors under the Global Fund
have for the past decade dedicated a fund for malaria prevention and
treatment. Reports suggest government and development partners have
distributed over 20 000 mosquito nets in the most vulnerable areas
recently.

But this could be too little for a country with a population of
over 12 million spread across provinces which are vulnerable to the
disease.

Figures show that malaria cases are on the rise.

The 13th
week of 2012 had about 12 000 cases reported compared to this year’s 20
000.

In the first quarter of 2009, 329 people were killed by the disease
from 267 396 reported cases.

Zimbabwe’s health sector is suffering
from funding shortages following a decade of political and economic turmoil
that resulted in some hospitals being shut while prevention and treatment
programmes received a knock.

Many of the institutions have since opened
after the formation of a coalition government in 2009, with donors providing
most of the funding as government struggles with underfunding and what many
see as warped prioritisation of available resources.

In the case of
malaria, some health experts argue that communities can help combat the
disease if they become keen on self-care.

A study last year by the
programme manager for non communicable diseases, Lillian Muchena examining
the relationship between Malaria prevention and cleanliness affirmed the
effectiveness of good self-care. - Wendy Muperi

Zanu
PF chaos: Mutasa breathes fire

HARARE -
President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu PF is teetering on the brink of collapse in
Manicaland province after the party yesterday overwhelmingly voted to have
the provincial structure, which is embroiled in corruption and factionalism,
to be dissolved.

The turbulence in the former ruling party, not only in
Manicaland but across other provinces, has left the former guerrilla
movement reeling and disintegrating right before a crunch election which
could be held as early as end of June.

Informed sources told the
Daily News that a fire-fighting meeting in Mutare agreed that the provincial
executive should be dissolved since it was failing to further the interests
of the party.

“The view of the majority was that the province should be
dissolved because it has failed to run the province. I can assure you that
it is going to be dissolved. Members of the province indicated that they are
even prepared to resign,” said a source within Zanu PF who attended
yesterday’s meeting.

At last week’s politburo meeting, Zanu PF deferred
announcing guidelines for primary elections as in-fighting took centre
stage, forcing Mugabe to dispatch a special team led by national chairperson
Simon Khaya Moyo to probe in-fighting in the troubled province of
Manicaland.

Khaya Moyo yesterday said his team would make its
presentations to the party tomorrow.

He refused to shed more
light.

In Manicaland, Madiro and Zanu PF women’s league chairperson Oppah
Muchinguri are up against Mutasa, who is the fourth most powerful person in
Zanu PF. Sources said the move to dissolve the provincial executive would
strengthen Mutasa’s bid to pack the provincial structure with his own
loyalists.

Although Mutasa refused to speak on the matter yesterday,
sources in the party said he proved at the meeting that he was the most
senior politician in the province, which Zanu PF is losing to the
MDC.

“They want to set up an interim committee and co-opt many people,
including war veterans who will work for the party ahead of elections.
Obviously, those in court like Madiro are ineffectual and they should be
replaced,” said a source close to Mutasa.

The in-fighting raises
questions about Mugabe and Zanu PF’s preparedness for an election likely to
be the hardest fought since independence from Britain 1980.

Insiders
say the Manicaland chaos is just a tip of the iceberg in Mugabe’s
crisis-torn party amid indications that the party’s structures across the
country are in disarray before a do-or-die election that insiders fear could
consign the liberation war movement into the dustbin of history.

They
say Manicaland province is simply turning into the epicentre of the
unfolding tsunami which has seen most provinces struggling to keep a united
front that Mugabe badly needs to beat Tsvangirai without resorting to
violence and rigging.

The insiders say the situation in Manicaland
mirrors the national picture, with Zanu PF embroiled in massive in-fighting
caused by factionalism which has its roots in the war to succeed Mugabe, who
at 89 could be contesting his last election.

In a veiled admission
that all was not well within the party, the politburo last week unilaterally
demoted its Bulawayo provincial chairperson Killian Sibanda to the position
of deputy chairperson with Callistus Ndlovu taking over as provincial boss.

Hold
it, Tsvangirai tells Mugabe

HARARE - Gone are the days when President Robert Mugabe
would unilaterally run the country, including calling for elections, Prime
Minister Morgan Tsvangirai told his supporters in Chiredzi
yesterday.

Tsvangirai, who formed the coalition government with bitter
rival Mugabe after marginally winning the March 2008 elections and
boycotting a subsequent run-off due to violence, said the power-sharing
Global Political Agreement (GPA) had severely curtailed Mugabe’s hold on
power.

Under the agreement, Mugabe has to consult Tsvangirai on key
decisions such as election timing.

Addressing thousands of MDC
supporters in Chiredzi yesterday, the former trade union leader described
Mugabe’s public pronouncements of a June 29 general election as a
“hallucination”.

Tsvangirai, who had to intervene to stop Mugabe from
smuggling into the High Court the June 29 poll plot, yesterday said the
former guerrilla leader is hoodwinking his supporters as he is aware that
under the GPA, he has been stripped of power to act without consulting other
players.

“Mugabe and I will agree on the election date. Mugabe knows that
he cannot declare a date unilaterally,” Tsvangirai said.

Tsvangirai,
who prefers a September 16 general election, said polls would only be held
after the full implementation of the GPA. The reforms include media and
security sector realignment.

“We do not hate the police or the army but
we want them to be professional, non-partisan and apolitical,” he
said.

Tsvangirai, whose duel with Mugabe is likely to be the main
attraction during the general election, promised cheering loyalists that
this time around the vote “will not be stolen as was the case in
2008”.

“We are here in Chiredzi to prepare for a new beginning. You will
deliver the victory and you have a job to make sure that the journey we
started in 1999 will be achieved as you know that the vote was stolen from
us in 2008,” he said.

“At the congress in 2006, we agreed to
pressurise Mugabe and Zanu PF to the negotiating table. Our main objectives
were a new constitution then a free and fair election but there was a price
to pay. Others were killed while others were raped but we took the
sacrifice,” said Tsvangirai.

Civil society, churches and Tsvangirai’s MDC
say over 200 people were killed in the violence that followed Mugabe’s March
2008 first round poll defeat. Thousands were maimed while others fled their
homes to become refugees in their own country, he said, adding that the
formation of a coalition government was meant to clip Mugabe and his
militant backers.

“We had to figure out how to handle a dictator using
democratic means. We didn’t want war. We now have a new constitution which
will introduce a new democratic political culture,” said
Tsvangirai.

Last month, Tsvangirai and Mugabe agreed to a new
constitution, which among other things curtails imperial presidential
powers, guarantees civil liberties and gives women an advantage over men in
elections and issues such as the death penalty.

With millions of
Zimbabweans still unemployed, Tsvangirai said the new constitutional
dispensation would address such challenges.

“The four years we have spent
in the Government of National Unity (GNU) have been useful in soft landing
Zimbabwe’s crisis. These years in government have shown that we are able to
deliver. We encourage people to register and vote in the coming elections,”
said Tsvangirai.

“We must all mobilise to register and vote to complete
the change. It is not Zanu PF that can solve our problems because they were
the ones who destroyed this economy.

“The MDC can create jobs, which
can bring investment and make the economy functional,” he said.

Three
election dates for Zim?

Sunday, 14 April 2013 14:57HARARE - President
Robert Mugabe says Zimbabweans should go for a general election on June 29.
Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai argues it can only be on September 16. And
now, Zimbabwe has a third alternative.

The smaller MDC formation led by
Industry minister Welshman Ncube says August 26.

Nothing exposes the
wide fissures within the shaky coalition than the differences over election
timing.

All three parties in the coalition agree that their union is
untenable and elections should be held to end the “monster” administration.
But it seems that is where the consensus ends.

Ncube’s party, which
had been silent on election timing all along, has thrown its
dates.

Party secretary general Priscilla Misihairambwi- Mushonga says
Mugabe’s demands for a June 29 election are a “mere dream”.

Speaking
during a debate on elections in Bulawayo on Friday Misihairambwi- Mushonga
said her party had settled for August 26 as the ideal election
date.

“We would like the elections to be held on August 26 and the
(presidential election) run-off on September 26,” she said.

“In
coming up with this date we factored issues to do with the hosting of the
United Nations World Tourism Organisation(UNWTO) general assembly and the
legal requirements in accordance to the law,” Misihairambwi-Mushonga said.
Zimbabwe is co-hosting the UNWTO with Zambia from 24 to 29 August.

Tapiwa
Mashakada, the deputy secretary in Tsvangirai’s MDC told the same debate
that the nation must not gamble with the hosting of the UNWTO, hence the
elections should be held in September.

“We cannot hold the elections in
August because of the UNWTO. Hence we can only hold elections in September,”
Mashakada said.

Mashakada said a September election would allow for the
realignment of a raft of laws with the new constitution.

Commenting
on the country’s state of preparedness to hold a free and fair election,
Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) deputy chief elections officer Utoile
Silaigwana said the body is ready provided the State fully funds the
process.

He said political parties should ensure a free-fair
electoral environment.

Speaking to the Daily News on the sidelines of the
debate, National Association of Non-Governmental Organisations national
chairperson Effie Ncube said Zimbabwe will only be ready or an election if
institutional and legislative reforms are implemented.

“Zimbabwe is
not at all ready for an election. We still need electoral, institutional,
political and legislative reforms. While the intention is there on the part
of some actors; the key actor, Zanu PF is not ready to allow Zimbabweans the
freedom to choose,” Ncube said. - Nyasha Chingono

Chinese
companies not comrades: Biti

FOR more than a decade African governments have rolled out
the red carpet for Chinese investors, trading oil, coal, iron ore and other
resources for badly needed ports, roads and railways.

But
policymakers and executives, worried the flood of cheap Chinese imports is
sapping Africa's own manufacturing potential, say the continent must drive
harder bargains with China.

The time has come, some say, to jettison the
view of Beijing as Africa's benevolent partner, bound by a common resistance
to the meddling West.

"The sad reality is that they are not comrades.
Their companies are there to make profits like everyone else," Zimbabwean
Finance Minister Tendai Biti told the Reuters Africa Investment Summit this
week.

China's trade with Africa has surged from about $10
billion in 2000 to $166 billion in 2011, with much of that an exchange of
African minerals for Chinese manufactured goods.

Nigerian Central
Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi warned last month it was time for Africans to
wake up to the realities of their relationship with China.

"It is a
significant contributor to Africa's deindustrialization and
underdevelopment," he said in an opinion piece in the Financial Times that
ruffled feathers in Beijing.

Even in South Africa, the continent's
largest and most developed economy, manufacturing accounts for just 15
percent of GDP. It is even lower elsewhere, under 11 percent in Kenya and 10
percent in Nigeria.

Africa to blame?Part of the fault may lie with
African policymakers, for not demanding enough from their Chinese
counterparts at the bargaining table.

"If you allow the Chinese to come
and rape you and take whatever they do because you're just looking at the
money they bring, and if you're looking on a short-term basis, the country
will suffer, there's no two ways about it," said Sipho Nkosi, CEO of South
African mining company Exxaro Resources.

Africa must demand that China
transfer skills and technology to the continent instead of allowing it to
simply export raw materials, he said.

For some African politicians, part
of China's attraction lies in its unwillingness to criticize local
governments over human rights or corruption, unlike the West.

"You
can't blame the donor only. You need to blame the receiving government as
well," said Elias Masilela, the chief executive of South Africa's government
pension fund.

African governments also needed to do more to put in place
the infrastructure - including power and transport - that can support a
domestic manufacturing industry, speakers said.

Sensitive to the
criticism, China has been careful to frame its role in Africa as one that is
mutually beneficial.

"Africa had a long colonial history and should know
the nature of colonialism," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said
last month in response to Sanusi's comments.

"Comparing China-Africa
cooperation to the old colonial Western powers lacks any sense of
logic."

Beijing has also responded with a charm offensive to ease
concerns about its role on the world's poorest continent, including lobbying
for South Africa's addition to the group of developing countries now called
BRICS.

President Xi Jinping last month visited Africa on his first trip
abroad as president.While Xi outlined his Africa policy as a partnership
among equals, China clearly holds the cash: it is offering $20 billion of
loans to the continent between 2013 and 2015.

China's strength in
low-cost, large-volume manufacturing has also helped some local industries,
most notably telecoms, where handsets and equipment from the likes of Huawei
and ZTE have made mobile phones affordable for millions of
Africans.

"It probably has been more beneficial if one looks at it from
our industry," said Sifiso Dabengwa, chief executive of South African
telecommunications company MTN Group, told the Summit.

MPs
ditch Ncube-led MDC

HARARE - As the
election season heats up, MPs have all but withdrawn from Harare to keep
permanent base in their constituencies in a bid to ward off
competition.

Some MPs last visited their constituencies’ five years
ago. But, thanks to the election season, they seem to have found their
“connection” to the grassroots.

Many are facing stiff competition
from newcomers, hence the rush by sitting MPs to appease potential
voters.

Zanu PF and MDC, the leading political parties in the country,
are in the process of selecting candidates for the crunch polls although the
Zanu PF party is yet to kick-start the process owing to deep-rooted
factionalism.

Rebel MPs

The parliamentary highlight is perhaps the
decision by some MPs from Matabeleland Region, who entered the Seventh
Parliament on an MDC ticket under Welshman Ncube to cross the floor and join
the MDC led by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai.

Following the defection from Ncube the MPs managed to continue their
tenure in the Seventh Parliament after Mutambara wrote letters to the
Speaker of the House of Assembly Lovemore Moyo and senate president Ednah
Madzongwe, advising them to disregard attempts by Ncube-led MDC to have
legislators fired from Parliament for allegedly crossing the floor claiming
that they belonged to his faction.

Mkandla and Dube told the Daily News that
they joined the Tsvangirai-led MDC since it has a realistic chance of ending
Mugabe’s rule joining three more MPs who defected from Ncube in
2010.

Abdenico Bhebhe (Nkayi South) Njabuliso Mguni (Bulilima East) and
Norman Mpofu (Lupane East), whose applications to stand in the primary
elections in Tsvangirai’s MDC have also been accepted, were the first MPs to
come out in the open ditching Ncube and Mutambara — and were subsequently
expelled from Parliament.Reasons for defection.

Dube justified
his crossover saying he was obeying the wishes of people in his
constituency, who wanted to vote for a united MDC under the leadership of
Tsvangirai.

“People in my constituency wanted me to re-join the main MDC.
I did that by submitting my CV to represent the constituency. We need a
formidable force to win the coming elections so I had no option but to
follow their dictates,” said Dube.

He also said Ncube was difficult
to work with and did not trust them as legislators.

“We had been
having difficulties in working with Ncube and this is why we decided to
re-join our colleagues in the MDC T,” said Dube.

Mkandla also shares Dube
sentiments.

Ncube’s faction response

MDC Chief Whip Edward Mkhosi
dismissed the MPs as rebels who have been dismissed by the party
leadership.

“These MPs were no longer working with us in Parliament as we
have dismissed them from our party. They were not adding any value to us and
they were working with Tsvangirai. We are not going to miss them,” said
Mkhosi.

Kurauone
Chihwayi deputy spokesperson for Ncube’s MDC faction said they are not
bothered by the departure of these rebel legislators.

“We are united and
not going to mourn these MPs who are rebels and political ‘prostitutes’ that
have joined the MDC. Ncube will not hesitate to punish anyone found
politically prostituting and working as a rebel against his party, “said
Chihwayi.

Meanwhile, this week parliamentary portfolio committee on
Natural Resources and Environment held a two-day workshop for legislators to
familiarise themselves with climate and environmental issues.

Dube,
who is the chairperson of the committee, told delegates at the workshop that
it is important for the local community to understand climate matters as
weather patterns are rapidly changing.

Hot Seat: Ex-MP
on Reasons Behind By-Election Supreme Court
Challenge

SW Radio Africa’s Violet
Gonda’s guest on the Hot Seat programme is Njabuliso Mguni, one of three former
legislators engaged in a tug of war with President Robert Mugabe over election
dates in the Supreme Court. Why do they want to pursue a case that will only
give them a month in parliament if by-elections are held? Are the three, who
plan to also contest as MPs for the MDC-T in general elections, creating
confusion in opposition ranks and giving ZANU PF an advantage and an excuse to
call for general elections by June – a timeline opposed by both MDC
formations?

Broadcast: 11 April
2013

VIOLET GONDA:My
guest on the Hot Seat programme is Njabuliso Mguni, one of three former
legislators from Matabeleland engaged in a tug of war with president Robert
Mugabe in the Supreme Court. Mguni, Abednico Bhebhe and Norman Mpofu are trying
to force Mugabe to call for by-elections in constituencies they used to
represent following their expulsion from the Ncube led MDC after they were
accused of supporting the MDC led by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai. High
Court Judge Justice George Chiweshe recently ruled in Mugabe’s favour saying the
holding of by-elections now would be costly and unnecessary because the life of
Parliament would end by June 29th. Mugabe also argues there are about 40 vacant
constituencies and he’d have to hold by-elections in all these areas and that
there are no resources to hold mini elections on top of general or harmonized
polls. I started by asking Mr Mguni for an update on the Supreme Court
challenge.

MGUNI:Well I’m sure Zimbabweans have been following this case
from 2009 when we were expelled for the reasons that we stated. Normally and
constitutionally one would have expected that the president of the country would
have declared re-elections or would have called for elections within 90 days but
that never happened and as a result, we are forced to approach the courts for
redress of this situation on behalf of our constituencies. And let me say out
clearly without any ambiguity that whatever action we took to challenge Mugabe
to court, we would have taken Mugabe to court so that to force a by-election, we
were doing that on behalf of our constituencies that we represent – because
constitutionally, each and every constituent has got a right to be represented
and we felt as representatives for the people that our people have been robbed,
they could not go for all those years without any representation. So as it is
now, we are actually fighting the war in the courts and we continue to
fight.

GONDA:This case seems to be dragging on and on. Why didn’t
you appeal over a year ago when the High Court first gave an
extension?

MGUNI:Well our understanding was, remember this case had
actually started from the High Court then it went to the Supreme Court, it was
thrown back to High Court and to High Court for whatever reason – I don’t know
I’m not a lawyer because we have employed people to do the thinking on our
behalf. We understand the High Court had actually made an agreement with Robert
Mugabe to call the dates by the 30thof March. So that was our understanding that
by that date Mugabe would have announced the dates for the
by-election.

GONDA:High Court Judge Justice Chiweshe said holding
by-elections right now would be costly and also unnecessary because the life of
parliament would end by June 29th. What’s your reaction to
this?

MGUNI:Well that was never the contention. The contention was
that the law has been broken and the law stated clearly and categorically that
elections must be held within 90 days and that each and every constituent has
got a right to be represented. Being a layman, without any legal background, my
simple understanding is that those issues of inability, costly and so on are not
enshrined in the constitution; they will just be personal interpretation from a
learned judge, not what the law actually says. But the law talks about the three
months and all the constituencies have got the right to be represented – so I
don’t know where he was getting that one from. I think that was just his own
opinion but that doesn’t exist in law.

GONDA:Now if the Supreme Court rules in your favour President
Mugabe will have to start the process of calling for by-elections and correct me
if I’m wrong – it will take 40 days for the nomination court and there will be
another 40 days from nominations to elections which means if you are elected you
are likely to have about a month as an MP before parliament is actually
dissolved on June 29th. Why do you then want to be an MP for just 25
days, if the president is ordered to call for by-elections
immediately?

MGUNI: It’s not that we want to be MPs, that’s not the point.
The point is we want to correct an anomaly, it’s just a question of principle
-it’s not that we want to be MPs. We are being pushed by our own people that we
must push this thing right up to the end. You know whether elections are there
or not but the correct message must be sent to the system. Secondly I don’t know
who says that elections are going to be on the 29th. If for argument
purposes let’s say elections are going to be on the 29th, if you read
our constitution in Zimbabwe it reads; ‘proclamation must be done within 90
days, and there’s a 90 day process to elections. But if you count from now the
proclamation hasn’t been done – the 90 days is not even enough and it possibly
rules out having any elections in June.

Remember there are 90 days
for proclamation that is in our constitution, so if the president hasn’t
proclaimed or even announce now the dates of elections when it is supposed to be
announced within 90 days, when is he going to do that? 90 days now falls after
29thof
June.

And let me say it again I did
not ask to be MP, it’s not that we want to be MPs, we are just pushing a
principle here that the system must be very clear. There people have been doing
things that are wrong and have been left to go off scot free and we are saying
we are going to challenge that, we are going to fight that – and we are simply
doing that on behalf of our people. And as politicians and as leaders, if you
cannot fight for yourself there is no way you can fight for people. So it must
be understood in the sense of the principle. It’s not about me going to
parliament or whatever, it’s not about that. A law has been broken and that
issue must be addressed. Mugabe must be exposed, Mugabe must be made to feel
very uncomfortable about what he has done and that there is going to be a lesson
that is going to be learned in future about that.

GONDA:So
your appeal is simply for a precedent to be shown that what was has happened is
not right and to force the president to comply with a court
order?

MGUNI:Precisely, that is what we are doing. As I said, we are
political leaders and that’s one of our roles as political leaders that we must
fight out systems that are wrong and try and correct things so that people out
there can learn how to do things. If we are politicians and see things that are
messed up and we just look at it and fold our hands and say ah okay the
president has said this, the president has done that – Zimbabwe is where it is
today because of such kind of thinking. People see things going wrong but don’t
challenge, as a result that is why we find ourselves in this current
situation.

Let me just give a simple
reference about yourself – you are where you are simply because of failure of
Zimbabwe to follow our own constitution. People are all over the world simply
because the system has failed to follow its own laws or its own constitution –
so the result is there is no order, things are just up side down, our economy is
very poor, refugees all over, I think everybody is fed up of Zimbabweans. There
are so many effects that come about as a result of non-constitutionalism. So we
want to address that.

GONDA:On
the other hand isn’t it possible that the harmonized elections will be held
while your appeal is pending?

MGUNI:Well there is that possibility but I think Madam the
most important thing is that the message has been sent home, the message has
been driven home, Mugabe has been embarrassed enough. We will continue to
embarrass Mugabe – history is going to judge him. I think we have put up a good
fight. The message has been sent for those that have got ears, they have heard
what is happening; for those with eyes they have seen what is happening, for
those with enough brains they’ve really looked at it and interrogated and
realized that Mugabe really messed up. We have really exposed him. I think we
have done our part.

GONDA:I
understand you are all also planning to contest as parliamentarians on an MDC
ticket in general elections.

MGUNI:This is very correct. Remember I was fired simply
because I supported Morgan Tsvangirai in the MDC-T when we were in parliament.
And remember the background to that was Mugabe, Arthur Mutambara and Welshman
Ncube had cut a deal including, this was directed by Thabo Mbeki to close out
MDC-T. So they wanted people to vote for a Speaker of Parliament that was going
to be supported by Zanu PF so that the MDC-T was going to be closed out of the
system. But we worked against that hence we were told we were rebels, we don’t
follow the party and so on and so forth. So with that in mind there is no way
we would not support the MDC-T or be candidates of MDC-T because we have got the
support of our people in our constituencies. And the person who’s got the
capacity to remove Mugabe is Morgan Tsvangirai the prime minister of this
country.

GONDA:So
how do you respond to people who say you are now creating confusion and giving
Zanu PF an excuse to say ‘they have been ordered to call for by-elections so
they will just call for general elections for everything,’ something that your
party does not want?

MGUNI:Well I think you must make a d between facts and
opinions and to me that’s an opinion and people are entitled to make their own
opinion. You know it’s that kind of thinking that has brought Zimbabwe to its
knees. We have been fighting for three, four years and why didn’t those people
assist us to fight Mugabe so that Mugabe will actually follow the dictates of
the constitution. So I don’t think that is the case. As I have said we are not
really interested in the by-election but we want to send the correct message in
terms of the principle. People can say whatever they want to say, I don’t know
where they are getting that from but I would like to say that is an opinion, it
is not a fact.

GONDA:The Prime Minister was a fourth respondent in this case
and he had tried to block President Mugabe from calling for harmonized elections
saying it is too soon to have polls by June. So what is the greater interest in
your party – is it not to have reforms and prepare for elections since your
critics say if you win this case, this will give the president an excuse to
either call for mini by-elections, as there are at least 40 vacant
constituencies or just have harmonized elections which your party does not want
right now?

MGUNI:Well I take those as just merely scapegoats. To me as I
said they are opinions and I will continue saying there are opinions. Look here
madam those are two different items that we are talking about. Somebody’s
hunting for a hare, the other one is hunting for a kudu, and then you say to
this one who is hunting for a hare no I don’t want to hunt for a hare. If you
hunt for a hare you will shoot a kudu so those are two different
scenarios.

What I know is: when it comes
to harmonized elections, there is a laid out road map and that road map must be
fulfilled before a general election is called. So for somebody to say because
there’s a by-election when the road map hasn’t been fulfilled then I don’t know
what kind of thinking that is – so it means Mugabe is still in control. This is
a different set-up. They should be doing their part and we’re doing our part as
well. So I don’t see any conflict there. In any case if our party has a problem,
it will actually tell us that is has a problem. We would not do anything that
goes against our own party. I think these are just philosophies and fantasies
that are coming from other quarters. My party wouldn’t have a problem in
approaching us and telling us to wait and hold fire. I’m saying I haven’t been
approached; nobody’s ever approached me to say okay, hold the fire. In any case
we are doing it on behalf of the part of the party we are not doing it on our
own. If I win the MDC has won. For the past two years we have been saying let us
go for by-elections so that we test the waters and see how Mugabe is sincere in
terms of reform, in terms of peace and see how the by-elections will to be
conducted.

GONDA:So
does this application cover all the other 40 or so vacant constituencies in the
country?

MGUNI:No
we are only fighting for our own constituencies, the three constituencies, –
that position is very clear. But just for the purposes of trying to clear up
everything people are now just bunching everything together but if they were all
that interested in holding elections for the 40 constituencies, 28
constituencies, that was supposed to have been done two, three years ago. But
now that we have started to talk about things, started to sort out things,
trying to make Mugabe comply, people are starting to complain when they have
been doing nothing about it. I’ve got a problem with that kind of thinking –
that when other people are trying to sort out things others are trying to defend
Mugabe.

GONDA:You said earlier on that people did not assist you to
fight Mugabe to follow the constitution but do you think your party, which is
also in government, has done enough about this, especially as these seats have
been vacant since 2009 and there are many other vacant constituencies that have
not had representatives for several years? Is it only Mugabe to blame
here?

MGUNI:I’ll not comment much about that but from what I know
in the constitution and what I heard from our lawyers is that it is the
president who is supposed to proclaim, it is the president not the prime
minister. It says the president is supposed to do that after having received the
letter from the speaker. It’s the president of the country. In this case the
president of the country is Robert Gabriel Mugabe this is why we are fighting
against him.

GONDA:I
understand that, that the president is the one who is supposed to proclaim and
call for these by-elections but I’m saying what have the other partners in the
unity government done to put pressure on the president, besides your action as
individuals? What has your party also done because it means there are 40
constituencies in Zimbabwe that went without representation? Surely the people
are the ones who have been shortchanged during this period?

MGUNI:Well I agree with you that the people have been
shortchanged but I have a problem about commenting about what my party has done
or said because I don’t know much about what is happening there. I think I’m not
qualified to comment on that.

GONDA:But as a legislator surely you will be able to comment
on the political situation in the country and these are issues that affect the
people who vote for you?

MGUNI:Well this is why I’m talking about Lupane, this is why
I’m talking about Nkayi and this is why I’m talking about Bulilima, because we
are the people that were mandated by the people. We were given the right to
represent the people, and this is why we are still fighting even today because
we were elected, we were given the mandate.

GONDA:So
when are you likely to receive a decision in the Supreme
Court?

MGUNI:Well I’m not so sure; I haven’t heard when the Supreme
Court would be sitting. I wait to be advised by our lawyers.

GONDA:Alright, thank you very much Mr Njabuliso Mguni for
talking to us on the programme Hot Seat.

Cockroach culture – Zimbabwe Vigil Diary: 13th April 2013

That prosecutors have
now charged civil rights lawyer Beatrice Mtetwa with calling police
‘cockroaches’ shows an unexpected sensitivity. Mind you, the police do seem to
be all over the place, scuttling away as soon as the light shines on them, only
to regather in the dark.

But their boss
Patrick Chinamasa shows more than sensitivity. He says the UN cannot visit
Zimbabwe to discuss funding the elections. To check if things are ok would, in
his paranoid mind, be furthering the regime change agenda. The UN must instead
just hand the money over. The cockroaches will look after it (see: Chinamasa blocks UN election assessment team – http://www.swradioafrica.com/2013/04/12/chinamasa-blocks-un-election-assessment-team/).

The Vigil believes
that Zanu PF is putting every obstacle in the way of fair elections and we will
mark the 16th monthly 21st movement diaspora protest next
Saturday by appealing to SADC to stop Zanu PF foot dragging and, in particular,
its determined efforts to prevent MDC supporters registering to vote while
itself engaging in vote rigging (see: http://www.zimbabwesituation.com/apr11_2013.html#Z8
– Zanu PF in massive rigging jamboree).

At the same Vigil we
will mark the 33rd anniversary of Zimbabwe’s Independence, joined by
activists from Action for Southern Africa (ACTSA), the successor to the
Anti-Apartheid Movement. Not that many Zimbabweans have much to celebrate, as
Herbert Moyo made clear in an article on cockroach-infested Mbare (see: Zim Independence: Betrayal of hope – http://www.theindependent.co.zw/2013/04/12/zim-independence-betrayal-of-hope/).
After the Vigil there will be one of the bi-monthly Zimbabwe Action Forums at
which Vigil Founder member Ephraim Tapa will talk about his recent undercover
trip to Southern Africa (For details see ‘Events and
Notices’).

It was yet another
sodden Vigil, raining from beginning to end. Water dripped through our tarpaulin
making it difficult for people to sign our wet petitions. This winter has been
particularly difficult weatherwise: freezing winds, snow and rain!

During the week a
Vigil delegation (Ephraim Tapa, Fungayi Mabhunu, Rose and Dennis Benton) had a
useful meeting with the Zimbabwe Desk at the UK Foreign Office. We told them
that we expected rigged elections and Ephraim Tapa spoke of the tangible fear he
detected during his undercover visit to Zimbabwe (see: Diaspora Diaries of
09/04/2013 – http://www.swradioafrica.com/podcasts/wordpress/?p=20668S).
Ephraim said that Mashonaland East had effectively been sealed off. He found a
cowed nation that had accepted its fate and predicted that disillusionment with
the MDC would produce apathy during the elections.

We were assured that
the British government’s only aim was to see free and fair elections resulting
in a government of the people’s choice. The Foreign Office expressed confidence
in the facilitation of SADC. They categorically dismissed allegations that
Britain was softening its approach to Zimbabwe to reclaim economic ground lost
to the Chinese. They pointed out that, in the recent easing of sanctions, the
measures had only been suspended and not lifted and this was well understood by
Zanu PF.

For our part we
explained the activist role played by the Vigil together with our sister
organisation the Restoration of Human Rights Zimbabwe and the Zimbabwe Yes We
Can Movement, both led by Ephraim. We told them all three organisations
participate in our bi-monthly Zimbabwe Action Forums where we discuss ways to
help those back home fight oppression and achieve true democracy. We also
cautioned the Foreign Office about Zanu PF infiltration in the UK.

For latest Vigil
pictures check: http://www.flickr.com/photos/zimbabwevigil/.
Please note: Vigil photos can only be downloaded from our Flickr website – they
cannot be downloaded from the slideshow on the front page of the Zimvigil
website.

FOR THE
RECORD: 39 signed the
register.

EVENTS AND NOTICES:

·Round 16 of the Free
Zimbabwe Global Campaign (FZGC). Saturday
20th April when we will also mark Zimbabwe’s Independence Day.

·Zimbabwe Action Forum
(ZAF). Saturday
20th April from 6.30 – 9.30 pm. ROHR President Ephraim Tapa, recently
back from Southern Africa, will talk to us about his trip. Venue: Strand
Continental Hotel (first floor lounge), 143 Strand, London WC2R 1JA. The Strand
is the same road as the Vigil. From the Vigil it’s about a 10 minute walk, in
the direction away from Trafalgar Square. The Strand Continental is situated on
the south side of the Strand between Somerset House and the turn off onto
Waterloo Bridge. The entrance is marked by a big sign high above and a sign for
its famous Indian restaurant at street level. It's next to a newsagent. Nearest
underground: Temple (District and Circle lines) and Holborn.

·The Restoration of
Human Rights in Zimbabwe (ROHR) is the Vigil’s
partner organization based in Zimbabwe. ROHR grew out of the need for the Vigil
to have an organization on the ground in Zimbabwe which reflected the Vigil’s
mission statement in a practical way. ROHR in the UK actively fundraises through
membership subscriptions, events, sales etc to support the activities of ROHR in
Zimbabwe. Please note that the official website of ROHR Zimbabwe is http://www.rohrzimbabwe.org/. Any other
website claiming to be the official website of ROHR in no way represents the
views and opinions of ROHR.

The Vigil, outside
the Zimbabwe Embassy, 429 Strand, London, takes place every Saturday from 14.00
to 18.00 to protest against gross violations of human rights in Zimbabwe. The
Vigil which started in October 2002 will continue until
internationally-monitored, free and fair elections are held in Zimbabwe. http://www.zimvigil.co.uk.

Zim’s
vote on new constitution a lesson on what not to do for Tanzania?

Dar es Salaam. As Tanzanians are eagerly waiting
for the draft Constitution, which will be released by the Constitutional
Review Commission soon (CRC), their counterparts in Zimbabwe have
overwhelmingly voted in their draft Constitution.

Zimbabwe’s draft
Constitution which limits the presidential term and protects a wide range of
human rights needs only the endorsement of the Parliament to become the
fundamental law.

The new Constitution draft seeks to replace the current
one written at Lancaster House, London, before Zimbabwe’s independence from
Britain in 1980.

The Constitution is expected to be a guiding force
for the general election scheduled for late this year. It, for the first
time, limits the president to two five-year term.

However, it is not
ex post facto, thus, President Mugabe, already the eldest African leader at
the age of 89, could continue to rule Zimbabwe until he turns 99 in 2023 if
he will win in the forthcoming general election.

The constitutional
making process started after the violence-marred presidential election in
2008 which resulted in a power-sharing government between President Mugabe’s
ZANU PF and Premier Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC-T.

Unlike the case of
Zimbabwe and Kenya, the ongoing process in Tanzania was not triggered by
political unrests or turmoil. This places Tanzania in a better position to
write a Constitution which can be the ultimate solution to Tanzania’s
problems.

The Citizen on Sunday Correspondent Fidelis Butahe met with
Tanzania Constitutional Forum (TCF)chairman Deus Kibamba who went to observe
the referendum in Zimbabwe and shared the Zimbabwe experience which could be
employed in Tanzania to strengthen the constitution making
process.

According to Mr Kibamba, civic education on the referendum was
given only four days before the voting day and that was largely associated
with a shortage of funds after the money which Zimbabwe asked for from donor
countries came in late.

Out of 6 million eligible voters across
Zimbabwe, only over 3 million voters participated in the referendum and
above 3 million passed the draft while only less than 180,000 people voted
against it. Mr Kibamba believes voter apathy was a result of poor civic
education.

“The people of Zimbabwe casted their votes without
understanding the draft Constitution that much, they were only mobilised to
vote. To avoid this in Tanzania, the draft Constitution should be
disseminated to people as soon as possible so they can informed decisions,”
he said.

Mr Kibamba also suggests civic education over the constitution
making should not left to the CRC alone, other key players such as civil
society organisations should participate and contribute to the process by
educating Tanzanians.

Absence of civil society and political party
agents at polling stations was another problem experienced in Zimbabwe. The
process was only witnessed by the staff from Zimbabwe’s Constitutional
Special Committee (COPAC) and international observers.

“To avoid any
foul play in Tanzania, political parties and civil society organisations
should enlist their agents to observe the voting process until the results
are made public. The agents should be allowed to participate fully without
any obstacles,” he said.

Campaigns for or against the referendum ought to
be free and fair, and the commission entrusted to supervise the process is
not supposed to lean on any side of the campaigns. That, however, was not
the case in Zimbabwe whereby COPAC travelled across the country campaigning
for the draft Constitution.

“The CRC should not repeat the mistakes of
COPAC, campaigns should be left to parties and pressure groups who will
debate the draft Constitution and convince Tanzanians why they should vote
for or against it,” said Mr Kibamba.

Once the Parliament in Zimbabwe
adopts the draft Constitution, which is likely it will be done since there
will be no one to scrutinise its implementation: “That is very tricky… they
failed to learn from Kenya, to have new and good Constitution is one thing
and implementation is another thing.”

“You need a independent
commission which will ensure the Constitution is fully applied. Tanzania
should go the way of Kenya and not Zimbabwe,” he said.

Why
Has Support For The MDC Plummeted So Much?

Fourteen years ago, Zimbabwe’s main opposition party, the Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC) launched itself onto Zimbabwe’s political scene
with great local and international fanfare. The MDC was seen as having given
rise to a new understanding of Zimbabwean politics, which sought to explain
the vulnerability of President Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National
Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU – PF). Not since independence from British rule
in 1980, had an opposition party played such a significant role in the
Southern African nation’s politics.

Indeed, for the first time ever,
ZANU–PF went on to lose a majority in parliament, and its octogenarian
leader was relegated to second place after being beaten by MDC’s Morgan
Tsvangirai in the first round of the 2008 presidential elections. Many
Zimbabweans predicted that the MDC juggernaut would sweep to victory in the
elections, which have been scheduled to take place at the end of the
coalition government (formed after the 2008 elections).

Based on the
evidence of voter surveys (notably, Afrobarometer and Freedom House) and
some not-so-well-attended MDC political rallies (in comparison to 2002 and
2008 election campaigns), a feeling has developed that the MDC may have
indulged in undue optimism. Indeed, the words ‘MDC’ and ‘lose’ are being
flung around liberally these days by both local and international
analysts.

Why are Zimbabwean voters deserting the MDC?

One
contention is that, whilst in government, MDC politicians have been caught
up in corruption scandals, which has made some voters doubt the party’s
ability to run the country differently from ZANU-PF. Another contention is
that ZANU–PF’s populist policies, such as the campaign for the
indigenisation of foreign owned companies, have won sympathy from many
Zimbabweans, who being largely unemployed, have aspirations towards
entrepreneurialism. The MDC’s opposition to this policy has also been
propagandised by ZANU–PF as evidence that Tsvangirai’s party is against
black empowerment.

In addition, the recently improved performance of
the Zimbabwean economy, in comparison to the period prior to the formation
of the coalition government in 2008, has been a double edged sword for the
MDC. Tsvangirai’s party put forth the argument that with the Finance and
Industry ministries in its hands, the party has successfully transformed the
economy from an inflationary nightmare to one that has consistently recorded
growth (following years of ZANU–PF’s mismanagement), and the land grab
policy that destroyed the agriculture sector (formerly the backbone of the
economy). However, restoring the economic fortunes of the country has meant
the end of the worst food shortages and tackling of hyperinflation. This
means that the previously successful message on the need to fix the economy
holds less weight.

Lastly, it appears the opposition has been unable
to guard against an attack on the person of their leader, Morgan Tsvangirai.
ZANU-PF has successfully turned nasty rumours into political currency,
damaging Tsvangirai’s political fortunes. For example, the antics of the MDC
leader in bed and the caricature of him as indecisive have seen some of his
ardent supporters doubting his sincerity and capacity to lead the
country.

Even Core Voters deserting MDC

These explanations suggest
reasons why Zimbabweans in general are deserting the MDC, but not its core
supporters. The majority of the party’s votes have traditionally come from
urban areas and the Matabeleland and Midlands regions. Why is it that the
attitudes of voters from these areas have changed
recently?

Unnoticed, within the last five years, there has been a
development that has had a significant impact on Zimbabwe’s political
landscape; the mushrooming of urban based Pentecostal churches that target
young urbanites doing well economically, or those poor who aspire to do so.
These groups have traditionally been the core of the MDC support. Whereas
ten years ago, the MDC had the capacity to attract sixty thousand young
urban dwellers to a political rally, today it is the Pentecostal church
leaders who get the crowds.

Led by the likes of the charismatic
Emmanuel Makandiwa and Hubert Angel, these churches have built a strong
following of mostly young urbanites, would be MDC voters. One characteristic
of the groups is apathy towards politics, particularly as a product of
religious teachings, and also a disturbing tendency towards a sort of
puritanism that politics cannot provide. These young born-again believers
have a moral repulsion towards politicians, and it is not surprising that a
promiscuous presidential aspirant will have little chance in winning their
vote.

ZANU–PF has also seized on a heightened anti–western mood amongst
the young to intensify its portrayal of Tsvangirai as a front for
neo-colonialists. Buoyed by the ‘Africa Rising’ meta-narrative, this message
appears to be resonating with mostly young and educated Africans, and
Zimbabweans are no exception. Judging from the two most recent elections in
Africa; Kenya and Zambia, where Uhuru Kenyatta and Michael Sata ran
campaigns based on sustained anti–western rhetoric, the MDC might need to
devise a strategy to guard itself against being portrayed as its
stooges.

The MDC’s alienation of voters from the Mateleland and the
Midlands regions appear to have been shaped by a number of factors. First,
people from Matebeleland and the Midlands state that they are dissatisfied
with the MDC’s failure to secure decentralisation of the state, both
politically and constitutionally. Second, voters from these regions, who are
predominantly Ndebele speaking, have accused Tsvangirai of not doing enough
to ensure that the issue of Gukurahundi, where 2000 civilians were allegedly
killed by the state, is resolved or at least kept in the limelight. Third,
some of Tsvangirai’s personal behaviour, such as impregnating a 23 year old
girl from Matebeleland, denying responsibility and later on admitting that
he was the father, seems to have helped reverse inroads that the party had
made in this constituency in the last 10 years.

Finally, the
Matebeleland and Midlands regions have become targets of competition by the
resurrected Zimbabwe African People’s Union (ZAPU–PF), a party that was once
led by Joshua Nkomo before he was forced into a political union with
ZANU–PF, and the smaller MDC formation led by Welshman Ncube, crowding the
MDC in the process.

ZANU–PF has its problems too

There have been a
number of developments within ZANU–PF, which the MDC should use to increase
its leverage and electoral punch. Most important is President Mugabe’s age
and health which remain something of a liability for the party. It will be
interesting to see how much campaigning Mugabe will be capable of in the run
up to the elections. The younger Tsvangirai should use this opportunity to
outdo Mugabe on the campaign trail.

Until recently, it was difficult to
deny that ZANU–PF had a disproportionate advantage over the nation’s most
precious resource; talented politicians. These chilly political
entrepreneurs, who tossed aside democracy at the expense of power, have
masterminded ZANU–PF’s stranglehold on Zimbabwean politics since 1980.
However, some of these leaders have either recently died (Mujuru; Mudenge)
or are now old and frail (Shamhuyarira; Murerwa, amongst others) or have
deserted the party (Makoni; Dabengwa). Those who have remained have either
been thoroughly discredited (Mahoso; Moyo), or fatigued and have withdrawn
to the backstage of politics.

What are the Options for the
MDC?

There are three possible options for the MDC. The first is to join a
‘coalition of the opposition’ and formulate an effective ‘grand’ campaign
strategy that would articulate the parties’ policies using nationalist
rhetoric. The advantage of creating an opposition with ZAPU–PF and the
smaller MDC formation is that the ‘coalition of opposition forces’ have a
chance at retaining votes from the Matabeleland and the Midlands. However,
this might be problematic given enmity that exists between Tsvangirai and
Ncube.

The second option is to scale back, and to be realistic in
terms of what the party wants to win. The MDC must decide if it wants the
presidency or a majority in parliament, or both. The reality is that winning
the presidency now seems a very difficult task, considering Tsvangirai’s
tainted leadership. Indeed, based on recent surveys, his chances are much
slimmer than in the last two elections. This leaves the MDC with one option;
recapturing the majority in parliament, this time with a much wider gap that
will give the party a shot at pushing for reformist legislation. It seems
the party will have to wait for Tsvangirai’s svengali, Tendai Biti, probably
a more capable leader, to take over if they want to win Presidency
too.

The third option is simply to ignore the polls. This ‘strategic
denial’ appears to be the course that the MDC has opted for so far. Such a
calculus, it appears, is based on the premise that these polls are in most
cases wrong.

The shot at winning is long for the MDC

The
demise of authoritarianism in Zimbabwe will surely come. But there is little
reason to think that the day is near, and even less to think that the
opposition MDC is the party that will torpedo the current dictatorship.
Today the party is more dysfunctional and commands less authority and
support than ever before, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise when it loses,
even in a free and fair election.

If the MDC wants to enter the
nation’s history books, and not end up as a footnote like Edgar Tekere’s
Zimbabwe Unit Movement, they need, sooner rather than later, to win back the
hearts and minds of those Zimbabweans who had so much hope and belief in
them.

Simukai Tinhu recently graduated from the University of Cambridge
with an Mphil in African Studies.

The
Changing World

I was born into a world that was literally at war with
itself. This tiny country joined the global conflict that became known as
World War Two with an enthusiasm that was not matched by any other country
in what was left of the British Empire and now constituted the Commonwealth.
At the age of four I can recall the streets being empty of men – they were
all away at war.

Eventually victory came and Europe was rebuilt by its
new leadership who together constituted some of the most extraordinary men
and women ever to have such awesome responsibility and opportunity. Russian
hegemony over much of Europe became established and the Iron Curtain fell –
dividing Europe into vastly different ideological and political
spheres.

Social Democracy became the dominant political culture of much
of Europe including Germany, the Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands.
Reconstructed nations looked very different to their pre war character and
Europe entered a period of protracted and rapid growth. But what many of
those who lived through this period of history did not see or appreciate was
that the world had changed and would never be the same again.

The
changes laid the foundation for the conflicts of ideology and economic
policy between East and West and the rise of Marxist regimes across the
globe appeared irreversible and the communist bloc unassailable. But the
forces of freedom – freedom of choice in economic terms and freedom in
political and social terms, proved to be unstoppable and universal and in
1987, the leaders of the “Free World” were eventually able to watch as the
Soviet empire disintegrated and associated regimes across the globe
collapsed and were transformed into varying forms of democratic
regimes.

When the World changed, those who were prisoners of the past
failed to see it coming. In Rumania the communist totalitarian dictator
climbed onto a podium to make a speech, he was interrupted by an elderly
woman who shouted that he was a “liar”. In minutes it was over and the
regime was swept away by the tide of change. My son travelled to Germany –
denied a visa to visit East Germany by the Embassy in Harare and while
asleep in Berlin, the wall collapsed and the regime in the East was swept
away. In the following year I visited the reunited Germany and found the
former East German Ambassador who had denied my son a visa, selling fast
food and wearing a paper hat in a fast food outlet.

The world still
has the power and capacity to shock us all – when that informal sector
vendor lost his means of livelihood to the greed and avarice of the local
Police, he stood on the street, poured petrol over his body and set himself
alight and the Arab Spring was born. Now here we are, three years later and
Gaddafi has gone, Mubarak is in Prison and there is hardly a country in the
Arab world that does not suddenly feel vulnerable to change.

What
astonishes me is that those who were embedded in these regimes had no clue
about how vulnerable they were or how easily their world would and did
change. They simply did not see it coming – for them they were secure in
their belief that their grip on power and their control of their regimes was
simply going to go on forever. They all had their own succession plans and
ideas about what sort of future lay ahead.

The regime in North Korea
is a good example, its 25 million people cowed by decades of totalitarian
leadership and control. Its leadership totally confident that life as they
have always known it would not change and that they could carry on in
defiance of the changes that are taking place all around them, especially in
China. They appoint new leadership in the form of the youngest son of the
previous dictator and he now struts the world stage like an over fed
cockerel. We watch from the sidelines and can see the forces of change
rising like the tide all around them and are fascinated as they continue to
play on the beach as if the tide of change was not coming.

In many ways
the same thing is happening here in Zimbabwe, the remnants of the regime
that brought us our Independence in 1980 and who hold that they have a right
to govern in perpetuity, are refusing to recognise that in fact the world
around them has changed and the circumstances under which they now live are
shortly going to push them off the stage in Zimbabwe and into political
oblivion.

It is pathetic to see their propaganda machine churn out the
same old mantras and their statements reveal clearly that they have little
understanding of what the changes in the world around us mean for
themselves. The only hope of such regimes is change – radical change in both
leadership and policy and failure inevitably leads to what we have witnessed
all over the world in the past 70 years.

But they refuse to recognise
the need for change and are therefore condemned, not by the forces ranged
against them but by the tide of history that we are all vulnerable
to.

Regional states that have always held the power to influence and even
direct events here are united behind the idea that the only way to resolve
the seemingly endless crisis in Zimbabwe, is to force democratic change.
This is now happening and when elections are finally held later this year,
the old regime, fighting with their old, unreformed leadership and policies,
will face the tide of change and find that they are helpless to save
themselves when they are swept away onto the rubbish heap of
history.

We are all debating the legacy of Margaret Thatcher in the UK
but take it or leave it, her great contribution to the life of Britain was
to recognise that the “old Britain” had to change or die. Britain was in
many ways the same country that had fought and “won” the War but while the
rest of Europe had rushed to reform the way they did things and how they
organised their society and leadership, the UK had remained locked into a
political and economic culture that was largely unchanged. New Britain and
even “New labour” is in many ways her creation and with it she brought
Britain into the new World order and in doing so restored her dignity, power
and influence. This is the essential failure of Zanu PF and they are about
to pay the awful price.