Well good luck, but in this case I think you're "situational probability" is gonna hurt you bad. Maybe you get the cover & sure anything can happen in the NFL, but this is 2 of the worst large bets I've ever seen. I totally understand where you're coming from & the reasoning, but this is one of the worst spots to bang it imo. First, the Texans are much better in all phases & areas - from QB to the O/D line, secondary & everywhere else. Second, there will be no letdown or looking ahead at all...that's not the Texans & they're lookin to showcase their garbage bigtime on MNF. Foster will have a breakout 140+ game & you better hope hope for +2/3 meaningful turnovers for the Jets or you'll lose all 3. Sorry man, but if you wanted a big bang, think you'd have had a better shot with the Bills or even the the Brownies -

There comes a time in every gamblers life where he puts his balls on the line and raises the stakes to take the house. When that perfect hand comes around and you bet BIG and forget about money management. Sports betting is one of the hardest things to win at consistently, as it takes time, patience and intellectual understanding of the game. Situational probability is what I make my living off of when it comes to betting on most sports. In the NFL it works well. I have tailored my craft over the years to make it what it is today. I dont really get too involved with explaining how I get to a conclusion of my picks on here mathematically. Because quite frankly it's boring. Most games I add up all this and place my wager. I can tell you that this wager i am about to post on here had nothing to do with math and everything to do with Gambling know how and situational capping. I have no other justification for this pick other than that I am so sure in my heart that it will hit that I am risking exactly 53.5% of my entire bankroll to place this wager. I dont do numbers but I rather calculate what I am on in terms of units, and I know that most dont understand my unit size because most of you on here dont bet with my size bankroll. I am sure of that as I have been around the bigs and Vegas to know that most of you on here are square bettors (but a select few). I joined this site because what I love second to winning money is the challenge to pick a winner and to use my knowledge of sports betting to beat the books, all while helping some of you on here look at the game I am on from a different POV.

I made a post of this the other day and I placed my wager the next day thru my contacts that wager heavy. This pick is my Rachmaninov, my Michelangelo's David, my Legacy on this site and in sports betting. This will be the only play I make this week in the NFL.

The most embarrassing thing that can happen to an NFL team in the course of a season is being shut out at home in their previous game. We are talking about the Jets LAST game. Now they go against an undefeated team, on a national stage.This is, emotionally, a Perfact Storm, for the Texans. If the Jets lay an egg here, I would be shocked. A win wouldn't surprise me. a cover is acceptable, but nothing less is, once again, shocking.....

love the play, my second fav play on the board, Ive been doing NFL a long time, ive seen this "spot" a million times. My angle? Parity boys. The jets WILL adjust. They are actually better off without that blight of negative energy called Santonio. I see them striking deep and early. Sanchez is like a kid, you get him into it early, hell keep his head up. This is not ground and not pound. You throw daggers early, you get kerley in it early. Guys always step up, this isnt the NBA, lots of talent is sitting idle hidden. I also expect them to get on the board early then rely on Mcknight (back from CB play), go back to the basics....Also this is still a very good Defense (even minus revis)....they can and will adjust....shaub is no montana, I remember not that long ago people were calling for his head in Houstion. I must agree with Razor, this is more "feel" than "xs and o's" for me.

Either way boys...we are all just speculating but GL either side you take.

yes the texans are perhaps the most complete team in the afc...but they come into monday night where they are like 1 n 4 I believe, having not fared well against the jets in particular, with Gb n balti on the radar, media all week hyping you up....just a recipe for an egg laying.

Again GL everyone whichever side, would noty be surprised at all with a jets W, even with Sanchez (mr 69 qb rating, he can only go up from here)

I'm not on this game but I hope u kill it!!! Respect your write ups and selections and reasoning a lot. I'm all for everyone on this forum killing the books and I hope u do the same with this one. Hell, if u hit this, u don't just kill em but u behind rape the darn out of em! Good luck brah!

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