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Archive for August, 2010

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

Political guru, Michael Barone looks at the current redistricting projections writing, “Overall, states carried by John McCain in 2008 will gain a net seven seats (and electoral votes), and states carried by Barack Obama will lose seven. Eighteen months ago, it looked like Democrats were going to profit from redistricting. … But that scenario now is the stuff of dreams. Democrats are threatened with losing many governorships and legislative chambers, and their chances of taking over many from the Republicans look dismal. Instead, the optimistic scenario belongs to the Republicans. If they hold what they have and capture a few governorships (Ohio, Tennessee, Wisconsin) and a few legislative chambers (the Houses in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and both houses in Wisconsin), they will control redistricting in 11 states with more than five House seats, including Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. Those states are projected to have 178 House seats. This would be an even better redistricting cycle for Republicans than the one following the 2000 Census, which was their best in 50 years. It could move one to two dozen House seats into the Republican column. … The unpopularity of the Obama Democrats’ policies seems sure to hurt the party this year. Redistricting seems likely to extend the pain for several more election cycles.”

“Population shifts portend a potentially dramatic redesign of congressional districts in Hampton Roads, Northern Virginia, Southside and the far Southwest [Virginia].” The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports, “The new boundaries could render the seats more friendly or hostile to their current occupants. An analysis by the research arm of the General Assembly, which will redraw congressional and legislative lines next year, shows that six of the state’s 11 U.S. House seats will take in more territory because of declines in population. There are several wild cards in next year’s political mapmaking. … Further complicating congressional redistricting: a divided state government. The House of Delegates has a hefty Republican majority. Democrats narrowly control the state Senate. Gov. Bob McDonnell, a Republican, can use his amendment and veto powers to force changes in congressional and legislative lines, both of which ultimately must be approved by the U.S. Justice Department or a federal court because of Virginia’s history of racial discrimination.”

“It’s no surprise that Iowa has been losing population during the past decade – and the 2010 census will confirm that when all the numbers are tallied,” according to the Globe Gazette in Iowa. “One of the results of lower population is less representation in Congress because seats in the U.S. House are divided proportionately according to population. … The wild card in all of this is when Iowa goes from five to four districts someone’s going to lose their job. Even a C-minus math student like me can figure that out.”

Oklahoma State Rep. Kris Steele opines, “While the purpose of redistricting is both noble and vital to a thriving democracy, the actual implementation can produce the temptation to place personal political gain over civic duty. The natural inclination is to pit Democrats against Republicans, rural interests against urban, and even Democrat against Democrat and Republican against Republican. Ultimately, this approach does not serve the best interests of Oklahoma citizens. We must protect against a process that is divisive and self-serving. It is important to promote a sound and effective plan to secure the most accurate representation within our state.”

“There’s a big political decision coming in the Legislature next year,” writes The Journal Star. “When state senators craft new congressional districts in response to 2010 census figures, they’ll draw the boundaries of a competitive and marginal Omaha district that could be swung toward either party. Senators often trumpet the non-partisan nature of the Nebraska Legislature, but that characteristic swiftly disappears when the time comes to redraw the lines of congressional districts.”

The Associated Press reports, “The Joint Legislative Committee on Reapportionment and Redistricting has been conducting public meetings across Mississippi about redrawing congressional and legislative districts. Congressional districts have not been immune from consolidation. In 2002, U.S. Reps. Chip Pickering, a Republican, and Ronnie Shows, a Democrat, were forced into the same district when Mississippi lost a U.S. House seat. Pickering won the election. Lawmakers are hoping for a less contentious redistricting process.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.

Eighteen months ago, it looked like Democrats were going to profit from redistricting. An optimistic scenario for Democrats, extrapolating from the 2008 election results, was that if they could gain three governorships and three state senates and otherwise hold what they had, they would control redistricting in 14 states with more than five districts, including California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina and New Jersey.

Those states are projected to have 195 districts in the House elected in 2012. Clever redistricting could move between one and two dozen into the Democratic column. That would have been the Democrats’ best redistricting cycle since the one following the 1980 Census.

But that scenario now is the stuff of dreams. Democrats are threatened with losing many governorships and legislative chambers, and their chances of taking over many from the Republicans look dismal.

Instead, the optimistic scenario belongs to the Republicans. If they hold what they have and capture a few governorships (Ohio, Tennessee, Wisconsin) and a few legislative chambers (the Houses in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and both houses in Wisconsin), they will control redistricting in 11 states with more than five House seats, including Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. Those states are projected to have 178 House seats.

This would be an even better redistricting cycle for Republicans than the one following the 2000 Census, which was their best in 50 years. It could move one to two dozen House seats into the Republican column.

Population shifts portend a potentially dramatic redesign of congressional districts in Hampton Roads, Northern Virginia, Southside and the far Southwest.

The new boundaries could render the seats more friendly or hostile to their current occupants.

An analysis by the research arm of the General Assembly, which will redraw congressional and legislative lines next year, shows that six of the state’s 11 U.S. House seats will take in more territory because of declines in population.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Democrat darkness, Alabama’s handshake and the state legislative coattails of Obama and Blago.

Politics Daily’s Lou Cannon kicks off, writing, “Republicans are … optimistic about gaining seats in the 88 legislative chambers (of a total of 99) for which there are elections this year. These legislative elections will determine which party holds the upper hand in the 2011 congressional and legislative reapportionments that will be based on the 2010 census. Several legislative bodies are closely balanced, among them the Texas House, which Republicans control by a two-seat margin. Texas is the largest prize in the redistricting sweepstakes; it will gain four additional House seats (for a total of 36) because of population increases. Republicans are favored to hold the Texas House and are in no apparent danger of losing any other legislative body they now control. Democrats, in contrast, are playing defense in attempting to hold onto at least a dozen chambers. ‘It looks dark for the Democrats,’ says Tim Storey, a political analyst for the National Council of State Legislatures (NCSL). … Now, with the pendulum swinging back, Republicans stand to gain some 500 legislative seats.

“Republican candidates hoping to end Democratic dominance of the Alabama Legislature unveiled an agenda Monday,” according to The Associated Press. “House Minority Leader Mike Hubbard, who’s also chairman of the Alabama Republican Party, said all Republican candidates for the Legislature are supporting the ‘2010 Republican Handshake with Alabama,’ and its passage depends on Republicans taking control of the Legislature for the first time in 136 years. To try to accomplish that, GOP candidates are doing more than saying what they will do. Hubbard said they are tying Alabama Democrats to Washington to capitalize on voters’ uneasiness with the national economy and dislike of some new federal policies, particularly health care. ‘The Democrats in Alabama are no different than the Democrats in Washington. They have the same philosophy,’ said state Sen. Del Marsh, R-Anniston. Marsh, the GOP’s state finance chairman, was one of 17 legislative candidates who joined Hubbard to unveil the legislative agenda.”

“With less than three months until Election Day 2010, Republicans celebrated one of the most hard fought special elections – at any level – with the victory of Sam Blakeslee for California’s 15th Senate District. Blakeslee’s marks the 62nd state legislative special election victory for Republicans, nationwide, since President Barack Obama was elected. While Democrats hold a six-point voter registration advantage in the 15th District, Blakeslee topped Democrat John Laird 48 percent to 44 percent. The race, which was the determining factor in whether Democrats would be one step closer to achieving a super-majority in the senate, became a preview of Democrat efforts, drawing millions of dollars spent by liberal interests and heavy involvement from President Barack Obama.” Hotline On Call noted, “Here’s the rub: Dems outnumber Republicans 41% to 34% in the district and the Dem in the race – former Assemblyman John Laird – was backed by…wait for it..Pres. Obama. Blakeslee was backed by GOP Gov. nominee Meg Whitman.”

In Illinois, The Associated Press repots, “The unfinished business of the Blagojevich trial poses a major new hurdle for Illinois Democrats, who already are facing a difficult election season. After hoping Blagojevich’s trial would wrap up well before the November vote, a retrial could begin in the final weeks of campaigning. … Republicans are counting on voters to be angry about Blagojevich. The GOP says it won’t have to keep harping on him because voters will have plenty of reminders. ‘I think maybe in their minds they can say, I’ll send my own guilty verdict so to speak and my own message by voting for Republicans in the fall,’ said Illinois House Republican leader Tom Cross. ‘I don’t know that we need to say that. It’s not like Rod Blagojevich is going to be hiding in the back room over the next two months.’”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.

In bad economic times, the electorate grows surly, and if “Throw the bums out!” is the prevailing mood, you’re in trouble if you’re one of the bums. That presents Democrats with a problem: They are the face of the political establishment not just nationally but in states as well.

Today, Democrats control 27 state legislatures, compared to the 14 Republicans control (eight are split, and Nebraska has a nonpartisan unicameral legislature). This was a dramatic turnaround from just a few years ago: In the previous three election cycles, Democrats gained a net of 374 state house seats and 68 state senate seats.

But that success has made them vulnerable, in much the same way as the gains made by congressional Democrats in 2006 and 2008 made them vulnerable. Democrats have to defend a lot of unsafe ground, including seats they managed to win in traditionally conservative districts. That makes for an unusually competitive year; according to Governing magazine’s Louis Jacobson, “Just under one-third (31 percent) of the legislative chambers that are up this fall are considered ‘in play’ — that is, rated tossup, lean Democratic or lean Republican. … Currently, the Democrats have 21 chambers in play, compared to just four for the Republicans — a burden five times as heavy for the Democrats.”