Yesterday, I looked at how frequently the highest drafted rookie running back ended leading his draft class in rushing yards. Today, we’ll examine how often the best rookie running back ends up being having the most career rushing yards among the members from his class.

I performed this same exercise at wide receiver, and concluded that as great as A.J. Green was last season, the odds were stacked against him leading the 2011 rookie receiver class in career receiving yards.1 For whatever reason, there simply is not a strong correlation between rookie performance and career performance for wide receivers. Is the same true at the running back position?

Ignoring the last three draft classes — it’s clearly too early to get a sense on how the careers of those players will unfold — leaves us with 31 years to examine since 1978. Eighteen of the rookie running backs to lead their class in rushing yards as rookies also gained the most career rushing yards of any running back from that group; over 75% of the time the top rookie finished among the top three in career rushing yards.

Unlike in the case of A.J. Green, the data show that the top rookie running back is likely be the best back from his class (again, measured by career rushing yards). But the trend is moving against those numbers, and it’s difficult to say whether that reflects changes in league philosophy or simply a product of a smaller sample size.

From 1978 to 2008, only three of the 31 wide receivers with the best rookie seasons ended up with the most receiving yards from their class. [↩]