Maybe they can track down that Indian chick who accepted Brando's Oscar...

Plus, I can't shake the feeling that none of this Oscar talk would exist if Ledger hadn't died. It would have been like giving Orson Welles the Oscar for TFTM'86...

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Not hardly. Ledger had already been nominated for an oscar before, and The Joker is a dream role for many actors. There was plenty of buzz about Nicholson gettin a nod in 1989 (he didn't), and Pachino in 1990 for Dick Tracy (he did).

That said, there is a big gap between "talk" and actual nomination, and then winning the Oscar. Lots of roles get Oscar talk. Only 5 are actually chosen, and only one gets the award. The questions are:

1) Will there be enough "great" performances this year to give Ledger a run? (BSA is always a tough category)

2) Of those who give such performances, how many are liked by the Academy (ie Jack, Denzel, etc), and how many of those have yet to get the award (the like to spread the gold around)?

3) Is anyone due an "apology Oscar"? (see Crowe for Gladiator, Denzel for Training Day) or an overdue "legacy" Oscar (see Michael Cain)?

4) How big is TDK's box office - all those small movies last year killed the Oscar ratings. Every now and then they feel the need (consciously or unconsciously) to reach out to "commercial" films (ala Titanic, Silence of the Lambs, Gladiator), and after several "dull" years, this could be the year to toss a few bones to the blockbusters (if so, expect a best pic nom for Wall-E).

5) Flipside to the blockbuster argument, last year some criticized the Oscars for honoring many dark, violent films (No Country, There Will Be Blood, Sweeny Todd, The Departed in '06). Honestly, there wasn't much cheerful about the last 2 sets of noms outside Little Miss Sunshine and Juno. If they are continuing the trend, it'll be good for Ledger, but if there is a backlash, Ledger will be snubbed (and even more good news for Wall-E).

6) Would the Academy feel better about honoring a dead up and comer, or seeing a living breathing actor giving a speech (with the chance of a "historic" moment, ala Jack Palance).

7) With limited resources to spend on promotion, will WB rather invest in a future star capable of earning them more money in the future, or would they prefer to enshrine Ledger's Joker as a truly legendary performance?

To be honust I think morgon freeman's performance in the bucket list might beat ledger(I rather it didm't but damn was he good in that movie)also I'm refering to supporting actor(isn't bale the lead?).