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Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Crawford-Postol: Keys to the Fight

The
battle for 140-lb. supremacy unfolds on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden
Arena in Las Vegas as undefeated fighters Terence Crawford (28-0, 20 KOs) and Viktor Postol (28-0, 12 KOs) square off in one of 2016's most anticipated
matchups. In the last few years, Crawford has emerged as one of the
sport's finest practitioners. An athletic, cerebral switch-hitter, Crawford has
been a puzzle for his opponents. Featuring full arsenals from either stance,
Crawford has the boxing prowess to win rounds and the finishing ability to end
fights early. Postol displays a punishing jab and has deceptive power. Working
with Hall of Fame trainer Freddie Roach, Postol has continued to patiently
break down his opponents and there's been some significant improvement under Roach's tutelage in the effectiveness of his
power shots.

Overall,
Crawford-Postol is a tantalizing title unification match between prime junior welterweights. The winner
should be in store for even bigger things in the near future but first things
first: Saturday's difficult assignment. Below are my keys to the fight. My
prediction will be at the end of the article.

1.
Postol's jab

At
5'11" and featuring a 73.5'' reach, Postol has imposing size for the division.
And unlike many tall and long fighters, Postol uses these attributes to get the
better of his opposition. His jab is strong and constant, often having the effect of a power punch. He also double jabs well and throws the punch sharply; his jab isn't easily countered.

Against Crawford, Postol
will have advantages of three inches in height and three-and-a-half inches in reach.
Working off his jab, Postol usually establishes the punch from the opening round and
gradually incorporates power shots into his attack as fights progress. In slower moments, he'll continue to throw his jab, scoring points while his opponents wait for openings. Postol's size and how he utilizes his jab are significant advantages
against any fighter at 140 lbs.

2.
Crawford turning southpaw

In a number of his fights, Crawford has turned southpaw for large chunks of time – it could be minutes or even multiple rounds. Many fighters find it more difficult to
jab as well against southpaws as they do when they face orthodox boxers. With Postol's significant advantages with the jab, Crawford will want
to do everything in his power to reduce that punch's effectiveness. By turning
southpaw, Crawford provides a more challenging angle for Postol to land his jab.

If
Crawford spends a significant amount of time as a southpaw, Postol will be
forced to adjust his offensive attack somewhat. He'll need to lead with his
straight right hand at points and figure out a way to penetrate Crawford's
tricky defense.

In my
opinion, Crawford is more defensively responsible as a southpaw. As an orthodox
fighter, he's more explosive offensively but also more vulnerable to return
fire. In his bout against Ricky Burns, he fought a majority of rounds
out of the southpaw stance and cruised to a fairly comfortable victory. However,
when he faced Thomas Dulorme, a fighter who had been susceptible to Hank
Lundy's switch-hitting, Crawford stayed in the conventional stance, dropped a few rounds and then scored a knockout. There was hardly any resemblance between the bouts. It will be fascinating to see which choices Crawford makes against Postol.

3. How
fast does Crawford get started?

Two elite fighters of recent vintage, Floyd Mayweather and
Bernard Hopkins, often gave up early rounds to an opponent. They used the first quarter of the fight to figure out what a foe had in the ring and how
he could best be exploited. Eventually, they would open up offensively and turn the bout in their favor. Crawford often utilizes a similar style. He dropped
early rounds to Hank Lundy and Dulorme. As those fights progressed, he
capitalized on defensive mistakes and scored knockout victories.

However,
facing a higher caliber opponent in Postol, and one who has a pretty tight
defense in his own right, Crawford can't afford to let too many rounds slip
away before he opens up offensively. Postol will continue to jab and put
rounds in the bank until Crawford decides to take offensive chances. Crawford
will want to be patient – and he should be to a point – but he needs to win
rounds. Upping his offensive output in the third round should be fine
but starting in the fifth will leave him with little margin for error.

4.
Postol's deceptive power

Glancing
at Postol's record, the 12 knockouts are an unimpressive number. However, the
right uppercut that knocked out Selcuk Aydin and the right hands that ended Lucas Matthysse's night were punishing shots. Postol isn't a typical
one-shot knockout artist (despite the Aydin punch) but he hits much harder than
his record would suggest.

Opponents
become so conscious of his jab that openings are created for his power shots.
All of Postol's punches are short and effective. He's also fairly accurate with
his power shots. In exchanges, Postol should, at a minimum, hold his own
with Crawford. And if Crawford takes too many risks (which happened against
Yuriorkis Gamboa), Postol certainly has enough power to send Crawford to the
canvas.

5. Athleticism

Crawford
has a tremendous advantage over Postol in foot speed and overall athleticism.
He's more coordinated, probably has quicker hands and can better use the
ring to his advantage. Another approach to taking away a jab is to leave the pocket.
Crawford can force Postol to follow him around the ring. Potshotting Postol
with jabs, single power shots or quick one-two's, Crawford can neutralize or severely minimize Postol's effectiveness with the jab. Furthermore, he can ensure that the fight
doesn't wind up at mid-range too often, which is Postol's preferred ring geography.

To
combat Crawford's athleticism, Postol will have to cut the ring off
effectively. In addition, he must use his body to keep Crawford in front
of him, especially as the action gets closer to the ropes. Postol can be a tad
lumbering in the ring but he's a very smart fighter. I'm sure that he and Roach
have worked on a variety of techniques to keep Crawford in punching range.
However, will he be able to execute them against a supremely athletic talent? If Postol can somehow reduce Crawford's athletic advantages, he will have a much easier
path to victory.

Prediction:

After
four rounds, I expect the fight to be very close, with the score tied or Postol
up 3-1. Postol will start the bout pumping single jabs and scoring points while
Crawford patiently circles and looks for opportunities to land counters. I
expect a lot of staring early in the fight. Postol's punch volume and the
effectiveness of his jab will be the difference in these initial rounds.

Eventually,
Crawford will find success by countering with right hooks out of the southpaw
stance or straight rights in the orthodox position. The match will
open up somewhat with each fighter gradually incorporating more power shots into his offensive attack. I don't expect the fight to be an
all-action war but it should be a fascinating tactical battle as Crawford
increasingly lands with his power shots while Postol scores with enough jabs to
make the rounds close. I think that the bout will feature an overall low punch volume. In this context, every landed shot will be vital and every miss could lead to a crucial opening.

I'm
banking on Crawford's ring IQ to be a determining factor in the fight.
Eventually, he will see an opportunity (or opportunities) and exploit it. The best
fighters force opponents into making mistakes. I believe that Crawford will
goad Postol into making himself vulnerable (such as lunging in with his shots or giving up his reach to land more effectively); he'll set traps that will pay off
in the second half of the match.

Ultimately,
I think that Crawford's versatility, intelligence and athleticism will be enough to carry the
fight. He'll maneuver his body around the ring to find angles for his punches to land, scoring with his
fair share of power shots. I believe that Crawford's clean, effective punching
and ring generalship will give him enough rounds to win a highly competitive
fight.