FRANK GRAVES -- Some unsolicited advice for campaign teams

As we have entered the second half of the campaign, there is heightened urgency around campaign teams. The grand aspirations of the starting line have collided with the cold reality of an obdurately entrenched electorate. Yet there have been some movements that provide opportunities to snatch success in the final stages.

Conservatives

At this stage, it’s increasingly obvious that your opening gambit to leverage uneasiness about the adventure of change against the safety and stability that only a Conservative majority can ensure hasn’t produced the desired result. Regional patterns pose new challenges, so it’s time to tweak the program.

Shift emphasis from “majority” or “coalition” to “losers can’t form government.”

Focus on winnable ridings in “middle Ontario” with messages of economic security and safe communities.

Because your hold on boomers has been relaxing, take themes to traditional media where boomers go.

Train fire on soft blueish Liberal supporters who are nervous about the role of NDP in future Parliament.

Liberals

Your leader is performing well and might have experienced a slight boost after the French debates. (The English debate clearly didn’t help his cause.) The “Family Pack” hasn’t moved needles. The campaign is stuck sub-30s. But there are opportunities to grow and your vote is looking more likely to show up this time.

There are real opportunities in Quebec with a weakened Bloc and a fragmented federalist vote. Stress the need for a more united federalist vote and the futility of NDP/CPC to make headway there.

Continue to reinforce fears of Harper and his style of democracy, which is where you have been scoring.

Impart to younger educated voters that your party is the best option to forestall a continued period of Harper hegemony that ignores the values and interests of younger voters.

Pick up strategic NDP voters who see you as best option to frustrate Harper. There are some 200,000 GP supporters who won’t actually vote but who are enthusiastic about the country. It’s crucial you convince them to show up.

NDP
Forward momentum, positive debate reviews, and some unprecedented success in Quebec set the table for improvements on the last election result. You lead on second choice and are ahead of polls at this stage of last campaign.

Key exposure is the high incidence of your constituency that will shift for strategic reasons.

Need to stress the plausibility of NDP holding balance of power in what might be a new government.

Build on your unique momentum.

Green Party
Positioned around the same place as last time, but with a disappointing vote gap that suggests your supporters will stay home in large numbers. Perhaps it’s time to concentrate efforts on securing Elizabeth May a seat and perhaps take the beau risque and direct supporters in lost-cause ridings to the most plausible candidate to defeat the Conservative candidate.

Bloc Québécois
You are limping but will benefit from the fragmented federalist vote. You are losing support to the NDP, but not in sufficient numbers to cause much seat loss