Playoff Prognosticating

We've assembled some of our favorite baseball writers from around the country to contribute to Sports on Earth throughout the postseason. Here are their predictions for October:

Jorge Arangure Jr.

Arangure has been a baseball writer since 2003. He has worked as a senior writer for ESPN and The Washington Post. He's still looking for a Mexican restaurant in New York City that's as good as something from his hometowns of Tijuana/San Diego. He doesn't think he'll find one.

Why? Every season in my baseball-writing career, which now spans almost 10 years, I've been asked to make preseason predictions, and then subsequently when my predictions turn sour, I get asked for new picks for the postseason. I've tried every method possible: careful examination of statistics and rosters, educated guessing when I realize that my picks are due imminently and I had forgotten to make them, and, finally, simple haphazard picks when I was too lazy to even do a minute of research. No method has proven better than the other. So why did I pick the Braves to win the World Series? Because God knows that Chipper Jones deserves a better going-away present than a garish 3D portrait of Shea Stadium.

Interesting Storyline: As a former Orioles beat writer, I've been fascinated by the outstanding seasons from both the Orioles and their Beltway partners, the Nationals. Can both of these teams continue their surprising seasons? (Obviously, I don't think so; I pick them to both lose their first playoff series. But maybe they'll prove me wrong.)

Out-of-Left-Field Prediction: There is no sane reason to believe in Tim Lincecum anymore. His velocity is down 2 mph from last year. His ERA (5.18) was absurdly high (only three other qualifying starting pitchers were worse), he recorded his lowest strikeout total since his rookie season, and his home-run rate is almost double what it was last year. But because he pitched fewer innings than he has since that rookie year, his K rate is actually consistent with what he's had recently. Only his walk rate has increased. Here's a guess that Lincecum dials it up in the playoffs and returns to being the dominant pitcher we all know and love.

Alex Belth

Belth, a regular SoE contributor, will be cursing, screaming and cheering on the Yankees in the playoffs for the ninth time in 10 years over at Bronx Banter.

Why? I looked at Baseball Reference, crunched the numbers, consulted the experts on Twitter, and then I guessed. I like the idea of Gene Tenace throwing out the ceremonial first pitch, so why not a rematch of the 1972 Whirled Serious?

Interesting Storyline: I'm most excited for two first-round matchups -- the Giants vs. the Reds and the Tigers vs. the A's. Looking at these series on paper is a reminder of how random the first round is, because two good teams will be going home. The Giants and Reds, man, it just seems unfair that one of them has to lose.

Out-of-Left-Field Prediction: Jonny Gomes will hit six postseason home runs, and the story of how he was once homeless and had a heart attack as a young man will become the stuff of legend.

Jon Bernhardt

Bernhardt is a freelance sportswriter who has contributed to Baseball Prospectus, The Classical and ESPN's Sweet Spot blog network, among others. You can follow him on Twitter @jonbernhardt.

Why? The Orioles don't have even the meager beginnings of a playoff rotation, nor a lineup that can hang with the rest of the league, and since St. Louis-Atlanta is essentially a coin flip in my mind, I'm going to favor the home team (you know, like real coin flips do).

I have no idea how the Yankees are winning with a bunch of broken, flawed veterans and half a rotation, but I don't think they'll make it past Texas. OK, they shouldn't make it past Texas. OK, I'll be really angry if they make it past Texas. The Tigers are a deeply, deeply flawed team on both sides of the ball, and past Cabrera, Verlander, Prince and Austin Jackson, barely have any pieces worth talking about. Alex Avila has been solid, true. I refuse to give Andy Dirks credit for anything. Jim Leyland continues to play Delmon Young as a regular, and I don't quite know what a Quintin Berry is, but from what I've seen it doesn't impress me much. Verlander is Verlander, and Doug Fister is nice, but if Max Scherzer isn't 100 percent they'll have problems. Honestly, the A's zeitgeist seems like something that can take them through the divisional round here.

I don't have a very high opinion of San Francisco at all, despite how good Matt Cain and Buster Posey are in an abstract sense, and I think Cincinnati will take care of business. Atlanta and Washington should be a fantastic series between probably the two deepest staffs in the playoffs, but even without Strasburg I think Washington pulls it out. Doesn't matter though, because ...

In the NLCS, I think the Reds are going to roll whoever ends up facing them. Their entire operation is just too good, especially if Votto hits like Votto. Throw in Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce and Ryan Ludwick, and you've got an impressive hitting team that happens to be able to throw Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Homer Bailey in a short series (they'll have Bronson Arroyo hanging around too, with his horrible hair and 3.74 season ERA). I really, really like the Reds, now and going forward.

In the ALCS, I don't think Texas and Oakland is going to end like Game 162 did. Texas is just a flat-out better team, and in a normal series, that should make itself known. If the Rangers have a weakness, though, it's defense; outfield defense, especially, has cost them dearly in late, important games these past few years. Their pitching isn't fantastic, but it should be enough to carry them through this round.

Which brings us to the World Series, where I think the Cincinnati Reds are going to make the Texas Rangers the next Buffalo Bills. Good night, Arlington.

Interesting Storyline: The Bad Teams are probably the most interesting ones. That's a proper noun because it's very hard to convincingly make the case that two teams that have won over 92 games each are "bad," per se -- without their luck, the Orioles and the Athletics grade out average to above-average -- but I had multiple conversations about which of those two teams would be the worst in the American League this year and well, here we are. I want to see how well they play it forward, and despite my predictions above, I'll be very sad if the Orioles get one night in the playoffs and then 10 or 15 more years of silence.

Out-of-Left-Field Prediction: Todd Frazier is the World Series MVP. Why not?

Why? These teams just seem bad, don't they? Like, all of them. No one won 100 games, and the Giants -- who really do not seem good -- won 94 games. So did the Braves, who seem even worse than the Giants. So I'm picking the wild card and divisional rounds based on storylines. (Don't heckle me! One-game playoffs and best-of-fives are arbitrary enough to justify my method.)

The O's and A's came from nowhere in 2012, and the Nats were nowhere not so long ago. The 2012 season was the franchise's first above .500 since it moved to D.C. So what are we left with? If Cincy, Washington, Baltimore and Oakland are the last four teams standing, Washington should win. It's the best of that bunch.

Interesting Storyline: I'm curious to see what Oakland gets out of its rotation. It's a gang of rookies and (maybe, depending on his cranky oblique) Brett Anderson, who spent most of this year on the disabled list. But they've pitched really well so far!

Out-of-Left-Field Prediction: Major League Baseball sees Oakland's success and panics. They invoke a one-time exception, à la the Melky Rule, that any roster with three or more former Red Sox has a quorum, and must play as the Boston Red Sox. Then the Red Sox win the World Series!

Jason Fry

Fry is the co-writer (with Greg Prince) of Faith and Fear in Flushing, the blog for Mets fans who like to read. A writer, editor and journalism consultant, he lives (inevitably) in Brooklyn, N.Y.

Why? The Orioles could fall off a building and land on a flatbed trailer piled high with mattresses -- I'm not going to bet against them in a one-game playoff. That said, I do think their destiny-alicious pixie dust runs out against the Yanks, who Hoover up such stuff in the early rounds. I think fickle fortune then anoints the A's, who luck and pluck their way through to a championship. In the NL, I've just got a feeling about the Nats. They've had the right players mature at the right time and are playing with house money. Just not as much house money as Oakland.

Interesting Storyline: Oh my goodness, everything. A title for the O's, A's or Nats would be an amazing story. The other storylines aren't quite as compelling, but you've got a team looking for its first-ever title (Texas) after a heartbreaking near-miss, and stately old franchises everywhere else. It should be fantastic. But then it always is.

Out-of-Left-Field Prediction: Oh, who am I kidding? The Yankees will win it all, probably without a single defeat. Bud Selig will bow to "the realities of the market and fan enthusiasm" and arrange for the sale of the Mets to Jeffrey Loria, who will make them into a 21st century version of the Kansas City A's, before agreeing to their contraction. A minor part of the wholesale erosion of civil liberties in the 2020s will be the requirement that all New York City residents wear Yankees caps and/or gear, with police officers and soldiers verifying their identities by quizzing them on their World Series titles. After I finally set myself on fire in 2026, my obituary will misidentify me as a passionate Yankees fan.

Will Leitch

Leitch is a contributing writer for Sports on Earth, and he also serves as a contributing editor for New York Magazine and a regular contributor to GQ, The Wall Street Journal and Sporting News.

Why? Well, the World Series was my preseason pick, so I had to stick with it. But honestly: This is the postseason and everything's a coin flip anyway. I could have flipped a coin for every series and had just as good a chance at getting them right. Though if the World Series turns out to be Texas over San Francisco, I will nevertheless let you know how smart I was.

Interesting Storyline: What Texas has been through the last two years is cruel. Fans shouldn't have to go through that. So I want to see if they make it up to them. Also, I'm curious to see if anyone kicks Johnny Cueto in the head. Oh, and I'm also curious to see if the Orioles can make their loopy season pay off with a "postseason" that lasts longer than three hours.

Out-of-Left-Field Prediction: After the Marlins fire him, TBS is going to put Ozzie Guillen on its pregame show. And it'll be totally fine and nothing odd will happen.

Dustin Parkes

Parkes writes about baseball and tries to be funny so that people will like him at Getting Blanked, The Score's baseball blog.

Why? Don't ever, ever, ever bet on baseball. If stats teach us anything it's that there's as much randomization in baseball as a well-programmed slot machine. A best of one-, five-, and even seven-game series is like pulling a one-armed bandit's lever. So, you're probably best off "predicting" whatever team you like the most to win. That way, if they do it, you enjoy double the bragging rights among your already annoyed friends.

Interesting Storyline: The Oakland A's are everything that can go right in baseball, gone right. The team with the lowest payroll in the majors traded away its two best pitchers this past offseason, suffered through injuries and a suspension to members of its starting rotation through the year, and still somehow emerged as the AL West champions on the strength of its pitching depth. Overcoming adversity is almost always engrossing and every little success that the team achieves is testament to that.

Out-of-Left-Field Prediction: At some point during the 2012 playoffs, Ron Washington will make a strategically sound managerial move.

David Roth

Roth is a co-founder and editor of The Classical, the co-author of the Wall Street Journal's "Daily Fix" blog-column, the sole author of Vice's "Mercy Rule" column and a writer of things at GQ, New York Magazine, The Awl and some other places when there's time. He lives in New York, and is on Twitter.

Why? I don't know why I just typed all of that. The Rangers seem like the best team in the American League, still, but I wouldn't be surprised if they lost their wild-card game. The Yankees have seemed somewhat vulnerable for months, but I'd be surprised if they didn't win a series or two. The Reds and Nats are fascinating and very good, but for whatever reason (and despite my belief that I will indeed witness it) I have a difficult time imagining either hopping around in the infield after having won the World Series. This is as much an indictment of my personal failures of imagination and an indication of my diminished capacity for surprise as it is a prediction, honestly.

Interesting Storyline: The continued mystery of momentum and cosmic alignment and just general inexplicable weirdness that gives us the Athletics and the Orioles and a supremely stacked Rangers team suddenly sad enough to seem almost like an underdog. All the usual non-baseball mysticisms bearing down on the actual baseball. This is always what I'm interested in, although I also enjoy the baseball itself.

Out-of-Left-Field Prediction: Through a series of events that are at first wondrous, then progressively more frightening, Jonny Gomes wins World Series MVP, and -- just a few short days later -- is elected President of the United States.

Emma Span

Span is a writer and editor at Sports on Earth and the author of "90% of the Game Is Half Mental: And Other Tales From the Edge of Baseball Fandom."

Why? I covered a lot of this in my playoff preview, but Texas and Washington seem to me about the strongest all-around teams in the majors this year. The Rangers have slipped and could easily fall in a one-game playoff, but if they survive, I think their pitching is good enough and their lineup is way good enough. Still, Washington seems to me like the team without any obvious flaws. Pitching, hitting, bullpen, defense, manager, everything.

Interesting Storyline: I really want to be wrong about the A's and the O's, because I love the unlikeliness of both those teams' seasons. And hey, that's sure possible -- I'd tell you to look at my preseason picks for evidence of my previous wrongness, but I've had them professionally scrubbed from the Internet.

Also, if Washington does lose, that team will (fairly or not) never, ever, ever hear the end of its decision to bench Stephen Strasburg. Whatever else you think of that choice, it was gutsy, and I'm curious to see how it plays out.

Out-of-Left-Field Prediction: Miguel Cairo is so going to have a big hit for Cincinnati. I hope to establish a Luis Sojo Memorial Award to bestow upon him.

Why? The Braves have the advantage over the Cardinals with Kris Medlen starting and a superior bullpen, including closer Craig Kimbrel. With Medlen used in the wild-card game, Braves pitching can't compete with Nationals starters Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann; plus, the Nationals have the more powerful and balanced offense. The Giants will take advantage of the 2-3 format by winning the first two games at home behind Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, and squeeze out one win in Cincinnati. Giants pitching will not hold up against the Nationals' offense in the NLCS.

Despite their lackluster end of season, the Rangers will beat the O's in the one-game playoff behind Yu Darvish, who has pitched very well down the stretch. The Yankees will defeat the Rangers behind starters CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda. The bullpen will be the difference for the A's over the Tigers. The A's will knock off the Yankees with superior pitching and well-timed offense. The Nationals will defeat the A's in a six-game slugfest.

Why? I'll be honest with you: I started out thinking about favoring pitching, but by the end of it, it was mostly guesswork. I mean, let's get real. It's enough to stipulate that in a short series, we don't really know what's going to happen -- but on top of that, you have some of the most unpredictable teams around. Oakland and Detroit, just a week or two ago, had no right to think they were going to win division titles, yet here they are. The Rangers -- who knows? And even the season for a team like the Yankees didn't exactly go by the book. So I went with hunches. No vendettas or disrespect intended. Just my fallible vision.

Interesting Storyline: Without a doubt it's the presence of three teams that haven't seen the playoffs in a while: Baltimore, Oakland and Washington. Even though two of those cities actually have a fair share of World Series appearances in my lifetime, it feels like a breath of fresh air, and I look forward to seeing how far they can go.

Out-of-Left-Field Prediction: Miguel Cabrera hits .192 in the World Series but leads the Tigers to the title when he turns into the second coming of Brooks Robinson and Graig Nettles at third.