Runoff looking unlikely

As the remaining precincts report results, De Blasio stays narrowly, but clearly, over the 40% threshold.

At this moment, based on the NYTimes count (updated every ten minutes), he is at 40.25%, with about 70 precincts left to report.

There are 19,000 paper ballots, including absentees, to be counted, but he would need to take under 31.5% of those ballots to be pushed into a runoff.

In addition, some of the totals for a minor candidate, Randy Credico, seem to have been misreported high (1000 votes in a precinct in the Norwood section of the Bronx, and in one of the precincts that covers the Dyckman houses. Most precincts report less than 200 votes, with 450 usually the max for this election). Removing those counts would mean De Blasio would need a mere 27% on the paper ballots.

In addition, the largest group of remaining precincts this morning was in the area south of the Cross Bronx, north of 153, east of Park Avenue… and that looked likely to push down De Blasio’s numbers. There were 70 uncounted precincts there. There might be 70 more uncounted in the entire rest of the City. And these precincts did deliver under 40% for De Blasio, but the turnout was light enough that they did not make a great change in the total. And the remaining precincts includes one group that should be good for De Blasio (Cobble Hill), one that should be bad (part of Washington Heights), and the rest mixed… in other words, the remaining precincts are highly unlikely to change the game in any major way.