Obviously the approaching weather is complicated enough that predicting the next good movement night and good flight at Bluff Point morning in tricky right now. The trough that is moving towards us (and affecting Earl ultimately), has southwest winds on its eastern end. So even though there is colder, denser air behind the trough (good for migration), the northwest winds that make Bluff Point a hot spot may not happen here till Tuesday or Wednesday. How much the trough will affect Earl is dependent on what the compass angle of the eastern winds is when it gets here. Having been through this scenario before, I know things often change significantly at the last moment. When the conditions look good for a big day at Bluff Point's hot corner, I'll post a note. But at the moment the weekend doesn't look good for one.
I'd also caution about coastal conditions on Friday. Even if all we see are strong northeast winds (it was a moderate/strong nor'easter that ultimately changed Griswold Point's shape and size forever in the early 1990s) it is very important to remember that strong easterly winds cause higher water levels in Long Island Sound by slowing the outflow of water through the east end. On top of that is the potential for at least a small storm surge, which would combine with the easterly wind effect to cause coastal flooding and erosion. High tides on Friday are around 6:30am and 7pm at Saybrook Point. There is also the potential for a fair number of tree limbs coming down (we haven't had these kind of winds in SE CT in a while) and some power transmission interruptions. Both of which will make driving around the SE coast tougher. Lastly, I expect some coastal access closings on Friday by Law Enforcement and by State/Local Officials. Some coastal State/Town parks and beaches have been closed during previous storms, like Hammonasset.
Dave Provencher
Naturally New England<http://naturallynewengland.blogspot.com/>
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