As carbon dioxide levels have risen over the past century due to human emissions, the Gulf Stream has shifted northward, and the Labrador Current, which brings cool water from the Arctic Ocean, has weakened.

The study found this has allowed more of the Gulf Stream’s warm, salty, oxygen-depleted water to enter the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence Seaway, causing the overall levels of oxygenation to drop significantly at depths between 200 and 400 metres — not throughout the entire Gulf, as some media outlets have reported.

“The whole Gulf won’t become a dead zone,” says Denis Gilbert, a climate researcher with Fisheries and Oceans Canada, and one of the study’s co-authors.

But the threat of some areas becoming devoid of advanced life forms is “a big issue,” he said.

That’s not to say, however, that the affected area won’t spread beyond that depth range with time. The surface of the ocean will remain oxygenated, but, given that the Gulf is a relatively shallow body of water, with a maximum depth just above 520 metres, the deoxygenation is affecting a large part of it.

Gilbert discovered the falling oxygen levels back in 2005. In a study published at that time, he and his colleagues didn’t cite climate change as a factor.

“As good scientists, we don’t blame climate change when we don’t have good evidence for blaming it.”

But he always suspected it was the culprit — and now he has proof.

“This is a big finding,” he says. “I’m very worried for the species that are bottom-dwellers. If the oxygen drops below what they need, they’ll go elsewhere, if there’s somewhere else to go. Overall, if oxygen levels drop, (there will be loss of suitable habitat).”

Northern cod. (Oceana Canada Photo)

This won’t affect all species at the same rate, because each species has a different threshold. While some will leave an area when oxygen saturation drops below 30 per cent, other species will stick around until levels hit 20 or 15 per cent. Some can remain in good shape even at zero, but they’re in the minority.

Near Gilbert’s lab in Rimouski, Que., levels have dropped to 17 per cent saturation. The Esquiman Channel in the northeastern Gulf is a little below 30 per cent and, off the west coast of Newfoundland, some areas are also gasping for air.

“It’s already causing some stress to animals,” he says. “This has us worried because it will have displaced some species.”

The concern is that the movement of species also sets off a domino effect in the ecosystem. For animals that travel long distances to feed in the Gulf, as do endangered North Atlantic right whales, arriving only to find their food has moved could have a devastating impact.

A female North Atlantic right whale swims at the surface of the water. (John Carrington/AP, File)

Given the players involved, this is not research to be taken lightly. The study was co-authored by researchers from DFO, Princeton University, McGill University, Dalhousie University, the University of Rhode Island, the University of California, and the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and the Ocean in Seattle. The study’s funders include the European Research Council, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, and Spain’s Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness.

“I nearly burst into tears when I read it,” May told iPolitics. “It’s such devastating news.”

The leader of the Green Party first raised the study in the House of Commons after it was released late last month.

“The marine ecosystem in the Gulf of St. Lawrence is one of the richest and most biodiverse areas on the planet,” May said in her remarks. “And it is now … anticipated to be one of the most endangered marine ecosystems on the planet.”

She noted that evidence of climate change keeps getting stronger and more urgent with each new study.

“It is clearly saying to policymakers around the globe that we are in a climate emergency. We’re not dealing with an environmental issue; we’re dealing with a security threat.”

In addition to the creatures that call it home, including multiple species of endangered whales, the Gulf is also home to billions of dollars in fishery resources that form a large part of the economic backbone of five provinces.

“Parliament should debate this in a meaningful way,” May told her colleagues, and they should do more than argue about small measures like pricing carbon.

“We should be talking about what’s necessary, not what’s politically possible.”

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May. iPolitics/Matthew Usherwood

This week, she called for an emergency debate in the House — a request that was denied by Speaker Geoff Regan.

“I don’t try for emergency debates all that often,” May told iPolitics. “I know the standard is very tough. But I still try occasionally.”

To date, nothing climate-related has warranted an emergency debate. And despite the fact that what’s happening in the Gulf is very much an emergency, she says it’s not registering with her colleagues on the Hill.

“It’s a canary in the coal mine, and we don’t want to talk about it in Parliament.

“The government continues to pretend that the old (Stephen) Harper target is the Paris target. It is not. We need to be serious as parliamentarians. As grown-ups, it is time we started protecting our children.”

If she were prime minister, she’d ensure every MP was briefed on the science “to know what we’re up against.”

The Gulf of St. Lawrence is seen from Gros Morne National Park in western Newfoundland. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Colin Perkel

May’s impression from talking to people is that Canadians very much get it, but if she needed a reminder of just how severe the lack of understanding is in Ottawa, it came during a debate this past June, as British Columbia burned.

“One of the Conservatives said, ‘You’ve had a carbon tax for years and you still have forest fires,’ ” May recalls.

“You just want to weep. How can it be that in 2018 we’re having debates about a carbon tax, when we’ve changed the chemistry of the planet’s atmosphere?”

Asked about the deoxygenation study, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) said it’s aware of the lack of oxygen (hypoxia) and acidification of waters in the St. Lawrence Estuary, as well as pressures related to climate change.

“The organic carbon and nutrient inputs associated with agricultural and urban activities upstream may have damaging consequences on the ecosystem, leading to a lack in dissolved oxygen, raising concerns for aquatic life,” a spokesperson wrote in a statement.

As part of the department’s St. Lawrence Action Plan, ECCC is working with DFO and the Quebec Ministry of Sustainable Development, Environment and the Fight Against Climate Change to conduct research on hypoxia and acidification in the St. Lawrence Estuary, and to monitor the quality and eutrophication of the water.

Researchers are studying how organic matter contributes to hypoxia and acidification in order to: better understand the influence of nitrate inputs; specify the source of the dissolved and particulate organic matter; and recommend, if possible, their reduction at the source. The results of that work are being shared as they come in here.

Gilbert says they’ve never been able to explain all the drops in oxygen they’re seeing in the Gulf. While “the science indicates there is a role for the runoff,” possibly contributing to a quarter of the oxygen loss — he’s been a part of research himself to that end — the major force is, without a doubt, related to offshore forcing (currents and climate change).

“If anyone needed a reason to care about climate change, add that to your list,” he says. “Think about what you can do in your own life to reduce CO2 emissions.”

Decades of procrastination mean the worst is now possible: May

Meanwhile, on Monday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release its special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.

Governments from around the globe invited the IPCC to prepare the report in 2015 when they adopted the Paris Agreement to combat climate change, having set a long-term goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 C.

“This report is going to say that we can survive and get through this, but every country on the planet needs to do more,” May says, adding it’s going to put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Environment Minister Catherine McKenna up against a wall for having accepted the same emissions-reduction targets as Stephen Harper did: 30 per cent lower than the 2005 level by 2030.

A scathing joint audit released earlier this year — and conducted by federal environment commissioner Julie Gelfand and auditors general in nine provinces — found the Liberal climate plan won’t meet the 2030 emissions target.

May expects the IPCC’s report will come to the same conclusion, letting Canada know its targets are far too weak and that “nothing (we) are doing is close to making a difference to ensure civilization survives,” despite the high stakes involved.

“Our entire planet, the entire biosphere, is at risk in a way that, 30 years ago, I never would have thought was possible,” the environmental lawyer says of her time working against climate change. “It’s just unthinkable, the level of change.”

Decades of procrastination mean the worst is now possible.

“We’ll look back and think 2018 was such a great year. The reality of where we’re headed is so much worse than where we are now.”

While Trudeau has talked the talk of a climate leader, May says he’s lost the moral high ground by trying to boost Rachel Notley’s fortunes in Alberta, making it abundantly clear that Canada’s No. 1 natural resource is bitumen.

“It’s surprising to me; I didn’t expect to be this disillusioned with the Liberals. But you can’t negotiate with the atmosphere, and you can’t campaign it away,” she says. “Most Canadians know you can’t pretend you’ve got a handle on climate change and then put $15 billion into a pipeline.”

When asked how the government reconciles the contradiction, McKenna’s press secretary said that while climate change manifests across Canada as extreme heat, wildfires and floods, the government has a plan to fight it — and “it’s working.”

“We’re phasing out coal, we’re putting a price on pollution, we’re making historic investments in public transit, green infrastructure and clean technologies, and we are protecting more of our nature and wildlife,” Caroline Thériault said. “We will continue to take serious climate action that reduces pollution, grows the economy and creates good middle-class jobs. That’s what we said we would do, and that’s exactly what we’re doing.”

But like every other country, Canada needs to do more, May says.

“We need to say to the world community, ‘Here’s what we’re doing, now you step up.’ ”

Despite the doom and gloom, she wants her message to be that it’s not too late. The tools exist and people know what has to be done — though it won’t happen without big changes.

“This is the most important issue we’re facing. If we ignore this one, nothing matters.”