Brexit ‘could lead to Czexit’

A British exit from the European Union would encourage debate in the Czech Republic about whether they should follow suit, the Czech prime minister warned Tuesday.

“The consequences [of Brexit] could really be tremendous,” Bohuslav Sobotka told the Czech news agency CTK. “Debates about leaving the EU could be expected in this country in a few years, too, if Britain left the EU.”

Tomas Prouza, the Czech Republic’s state secretary for EU affairs and a key ally of the prime minister, said that Brexit would make it “politically much more acceptable” for others to propose exits.

“So far in the Czech Republic this is proposed only by fringe parties with minimal public appeal — but if Brexit happens, it would be much more attractive to propose a Czexit for parties like Civic Democratic Party [ODS] (ex-party of former president Václav Klaus) or for the communists,” Prouza said. “If such an idea attracts wider following, it entails a danger of returning us back into the Russian sphere of influence which is against our national interests. But many will work hard to accomplish that.”

Others, including U.K. Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, have also warned that a Brexit could lead to a domino effect by creating a template for other Euroskeptic parties elsewhere in the EU.

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Marton

The EU should cut its losses and kick the Brits out before their referendum. Two speed Europe, special side deals, countries threatening with leaving at every turn, this undermines the whole point of the EU. The countries commited need to send a strong message, not two years from now, not after the referendum, but NOW.

Posted on 2/23/16 | 8:11 PM CET

Giuseppe Marrosu

I do not believe in Brexit, Englishmen know it would be a disaster for them.
But if they chose that disaster, it would certainly set an example: a negative one.
The UK would lose influence in Europe and the world, would lose prestige, money, jobs, investment and trade (including financial trade), people (skilled people too, not just the social migrants they fear so much), could lose Scotland, its special relationship with the US, its glamorous image and maybe even its security council seat. And the best part is, any of these things could go to the Eurozone! The Pound would drop well below the Euro and the US Dollar.
In the meantime it would be easier for the EU to find the direction it wants to go, without the UK’s constant opposition.
Therefore the UK would become much weaker while the EU, albeit mutilated, could become stronger.
(That’s why Brexit would be the lesser of evil for the EU. But it won’t happen).
After a few years the UK could find itself knocking on the door of Europe once again.
And the entry ticket could have a hefty price: certainly the Pound, probably the possibility to control the borders… Spain and Cyprus could ask for the restitution of Gibraltar and the UK bases… anything from the monarchy to the leadership of the British Commonwealth or the side cars run could be a reason or pretext for this or that Member State to stop the negotiations with candidate UK (candidates must be approved unanimously by all MS). Ask Turkey.
But if one of the Member States that consider the EU just like a free trade area decides to follow the UK and attempt suicide, let them go their way too.

Posted on 2/23/16 | 10:14 PM CET

Giuseppe Marrosu

@ Marton:
you are right, the EU should send a different message to the UK.
But it won’t.
The reason: the governing elites do not want to lose votes to populist anti-EU movements and, most of all, they are taking advantage of the irrational fear of a Brexit to slow down the integration process which takes power away from them.
Only us, the people, could deny the UK this infamous deal that humiliates and damages the EU-commited countries and the entire integration process. But we lack self-awereness, enthusiasm, tools and leaders. Help!

KoenigRalle

The Britons can’t be kicked out by other EU member states. The Treaty of Lisbon (Art. 50) just gives a right to a nation to leave the club.

I guess the British voters will vote “leave”. It would be quite bad for Europe, if 51% voters want to stay in the EU, because the Brexit debate will continue for several further years. Just look at the Scots. As soon as any changes happen (further integration of “core” states, new what-so-ever crisis), the populist will again yell “Brussel’s Colonisation” and demand an exit. Since Thather British leaders always decided to blaim “the Continent” for every national problems they got (and sometimes even created on their own).

Even quite educated people like Johnson believe this weird stuff. Or at least he’s hoping that a lot of voters will believe him, so he can become the next head of government — probably without Scotland. Without Great Britain no country will vote against a new member like Scotland and since they already use EU law, this should work pretty quickly. Cameron damaged a lot of trust on former allies like some Eastern European countries and Germany. And a British Trump like Johnson will have a lot of fun to knock on Europe’s doors to become a member of EFTA. And everyone knows that an exclusion of the common single market will have a huge negative impact on the UK. The funny thing is though: if the Britons become a new member of EFTA, they have to apply EU law automatically and can not influence EU law anymore. That is, there won’t be any special “extra sausages” (Schulz) anymore.

I can’t see that this is a central part of the Brexit debate on the island. They just see some directive for consumer protection and believe it’s additional bureaucracy, even if the new law substitutes 32 (EU plus EFTA) existing laws and is therefore less bureaucracy within the market. British politicians ofter complained about this, even though they used the existing British law as a template, so nothing really changed for London.

However, I doubt the Czech Republic wants to leave. They profited like most Eastern countries a lot from their EU membership and still receive way more money than Spain or Greece. And besides the current refugee crisis/topic they were extremely good at European integration, often even better than Germany, France or Italy. To me, the Czech people also don’t look that hysterical and don’t favor weird conspiracy theories. They’re well educated and can look at numbers, while the British voters often ignore, that their social systems get more than 20 billion pounds due to migration from Eastern Europe. It’s also quite funny when British polls show most citizens of the UK see their right to live and work everywhere in the EU. Yet, by far most voters also say that other European should not have the right to do so in the UK. Hypocrats. But I’d mainly blame Cameron and former British governments. Young kids, mainly of Asian heritage (-> former colonies in Pakistan etc.), riot in some cities and leading politicians try to link that causa to EU membership. I wouldn’t be surprised if UKIP and some Tories blame the EU for Britain’s climate.

Posted on 2/24/16 | 2:24 AM CET

JAB van Ree

To me the suggestion of a CZexit seems highly unlikely ; much of the economic uptake over the past 10 years in Czech Republic has in one way or another been financed by the EU.

Pretty much every street in cities such as Brno has signs in front of building projects which state that it has been partially funded by the EU. Thanks to the EU membership and Schengen there is a huge tourism industry and many multinationals now have offices in Czech Republic. These would see a huge negative impact upon a CZexit

To me it seems like the Czechs actually, like Denmark, have the best of both worlds : no Euro but an otherwise full EU membership with all the benefits.

As for the Brits… can’t wait to see them leave the EU. Having never actually fully supported it, hindering it’s progress all the way the rest of the EU will in the long term only benefit from them leaving the EU.

Posted on 2/24/16 | 10:53 AM CET

Diaphanous Schisms

@Giuseppe @Koenig

Firstly, UK’s special deal that you’re writing about is:

A). Not what the UK wanted; it does nothing to cover our concerns about migration, the EU wasting vast amounts of money and, its increasingly ‘pick and choose’ attitude to national sovereignty and its own Treaties a joke.

B). Anything promised can be voided or overturned by the ECHJ so literally it won’t be worth the paper it’s written on.

Also, gven that I am (left-wing liberal) Scottish, living in Scotland I really do I think that you both have a somehwat distorted view of Scotland and our relationship to the rest of the UK.

Do we want independance? Yes, well at least 45% of us certainly do but .
Do we want independance that then ties us to the bureaucracy of the EU? Actually, anecdotally we don’t. Our First Minister may be on tv making veiled threats to the UK about us leaving but should the UK vote to leave we’ll leave too. If we have to take a side between the parliament on our own island or the parliament hundreds of miles away, run by unknown and unelected European politicians you can rest assured that Scotland will follow the UK.

Posted on 2/24/16 | 11:59 AM CET

Diaphanous Schisms

@ Koenig “It’s also quite funny when British polls show most citizens of the UK see their right to live and work everywhere in the EU. Yet, by far most voters also say that other European should not have the right to do so in the UK. Hypocrats.”

Can you back this statement up by sharing links to these surveys/polls please?

Posted on 2/24/16 | 12:13 PM CET

David

Im living in Czech and if there will be referendum, people will vote go out of EU, I will vote for it too. But the current government will not allow referendum. As EU is starting showing its not able to do any real action to protect Europe and that is just that few countries like Germany, UK, France decide about small countries. Countries like Slovakia when they entered EU, should show how they are able protect the borders, but currently doenst matter for Greece, Italy, … Even when Czech republic leave the EU, doesnt mean it leaves Schengen. I better live in more poor country than listen orders of germans, which making 3rd time mess in Europe for 100 years.

Posted on 2/24/16 | 5:33 PM CET

Somebody

If there ever is a “Czexit” referendum, I hope the survival instict of the Czechs kicks in and they vote “remain”. Leaving the EU would mean not just economic but also political suicide. If we ever vote to leave the Union, I am done with this country for good.

Posted on 2/24/16 | 7:50 PM CET

Marketa

Safety is the main thing, wtat we need from Eu. But EU can not protect its borderlines. And it is disaster. Marketa from CZ

Posted on 2/24/16 | 11:32 PM CET

Groundskeeper Willie

Economic benefits are one thing, feeling of external threat and loss of freedom (read dictatorship of Brussels and Berlin) quite another, for many more important. According to recent polls around 75% Czechs favour leaving the EU and Frau Merkel is even less popular than Mr. Putin, let alone Mr.Orbán. That´s why there will be no referendum about Czexit as long as current political establishment is in place and Czechia will stay in the EU for many years or till the end, whatever comes first.

Posted on 2/25/16 | 10:44 AM CET

Josef Enderle

The Brits shall Exit the EU and should go together with Norway and Switzerland (both not in EU and still being successfull) to found a Northern-EU. Of course CZ would be a good fit as well.

Posted on 2/25/16 | 2:29 PM CET

Ludek

Big majority of the Czech people want to quit the EU immediately. Only small self-proclaimed “elite”, want to stay. But this “elite” controls all the media and won’t allow a referendum about whether to stay in the EU. This is the so-called western “democracy”.

Posted on 2/25/16 | 4:52 PM CET

KoenigRalle

I guess you guys forget that being an EU member won’t add any additional bureaucracy, while a lot of laws will just change from a european to a national level. There’s no difference between a British Scotland as an EU member and an independent Scotland within the EU. Well, alright, that’s not quite true, a sovereign Scotland could influence Brussels the way it would like. But I know that the north of Britain has got a lot of problems right now due to the low oil price.

Posted on 2/26/16 | 2:04 AM CET

Mike

@KoenigRolle “being an EU member won’t add any additional bureaucracy”

The EU employs 55,000 officials plus temporary staff and external consultants.
Just to give you an idea of the costs: by 2045, Eurocrat pensions will cost 3 billion €/year.

Whereas the US has 1 diplomatic service, the EU has a European diplomatic serice, EAAS, on top of national diplomatic services.
Whereas the US has 1 army, the EU has a European army on top of national armies.
Whereas the US has 1 Chambre of Commerce, the EU has a European Chambre of Commerce on top national AND regional (Flemish, Catalan etc.) Chambre of Commerces.

Yet, who cares? It’s all on the taxpayer’s (Eurocrats themselves do not pay local income tax and enjoy huge tax exemptions and tax-free allowances).

[…] braying 1930s-style chauvinism. In the Czech Republic, home of the 1989 Velvet Revolution, there is talk of a “Czexit.” In Germany, the Islamophobic Alternative for Germany party is strongest among former East German […]

[…] braying 1930s-style chauvinism. In the Czech Republic, home of the 1989 Velvet Revolution, there is talk of a “Czexit.” In Germany, the Islamophobic Alternative for Germany party is strongest among former East German […]

Posted on 5/24/16 | 11:31 AM CET

Na jméně nezáleží

Czech Republic’s withdrawal from the European Union is not a good idea. Czech Republic often uses European subsidies. I fear that if the Czech Republic withdrew from the European Union could win the Communists. Also, many of Czech students studying in the UK. I think that most Czechs want the democratic Czech Republic (Czechoslovakia) after the first World War.