Tropical Depression TWO-E (Text)

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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017
The cloud pattern does not appear to be better organized than
several hours ago. It still consists of a comma-shaped convective
band to the east with some disorganized clusters of thunderstorms
near the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
supported tropical storm status, but given that there has been some
deterioration of the cloud pattern after the Dvorak estimates were
made, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt in this advisory. The
depression only has a small opportunity to reach tropical storm
strength during the next 12 hours or so before the center reaches
the coast. In fact, a large portion of its broad circulation has
already moved inland. Once the center moves over the high terrain,
weakening is anticipated.
The center has been difficult to locate despite several microwave
passes during the past several hours. Given these low-confidence
fixes, the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the
north-northeast or 020 degrees at 6 kt. The cyclone is embedded
within the southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid- to
upper-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone on the same general north-northeast track until dissipation
over the mountains of eastern Mexico. Most of the reliable track
guidance agree with this solution, although some models are faster
than others. After the dissipation of the low-level center, models
bring moisture and some mid-level vorticity northward over the Gulf
of Mexico.
Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides continue to be
the biggest threat from this system. Since there is still a
possibility that the depression becomes a tropical storm before
landfall, the Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of
southeastern Mexico is still in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 15.2N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 02/0600Z 17.0N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1800Z 18.0N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
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