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Monday, May 22, 2017

Post-hype sleeper alert! We have another one on our hands and as I always preach, this is where you can find arguably the best bang for your fantasy baseball bucks on a yearly basis. Said hitter or pitcher comes up with a ton of hype, falls flat on their face, and then becomes persona non grata in the fantasy baseball community. The next phase centers on those who take advantage of the dirt cheap draft price of these players who hope to catch lightning in a bottle and hope the lightbulb finally goes off which can result in some insane value. Well this seems to be the journey that Chicago White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia has undertaken as he comes off a six-RBI/2-HR game Saturday night to make his already swell 2017 fantasy baseball numbers glow even more. As it were, Garcia went into Sunday's action with the following numbers:

.357
8 HR
34 RBI
26 R
0 SB

Those are four category gold for Garcia and all for the price of an extremely late round pick this past March. Still just 25, Garcia is now putting behind him some nasty numbers since debuting in 2012 and that has included the last three years where his average fell under .260. So what is at work here and is Garcia fully legit as a prime outfielder producer?

Digging into the numbers a bit, there is a bit of good and bad here. The good center on the power of course which again at the age of 25, Garcia could be tapping into some growth there. In addition, Garcia has helped himself by lowering his K/9 rate to 18.8 which would be a career-best if the season ended today. This also was a major improvement from the 25.4 mark he put up in 2016.

Now as far as the negative side, Garcia is showing no patience at the dish as his 4.2 BB/9 rate is pathetic. Combine that with a very lucky .409 BABIP and Garcia's average is headed for a steep fall. This is not a .350 hitter or even a .315 one and so this needs to be accepted if you continue to use Garcia moving forward. His power is surely impressive and the most stable aspect of his game moving forward but again the average could be a problem and he has zero speed. Unfortunately Garcia's stock has fallen so sharply over the years that you likely won't be able to get a fair return. So holding him is the way to go.

All in all, Garcia has been a revelation this season and a major value thus far. However be realistic the good times may not continue on with the average. Still Garcia is quite young and a breakout is entirely possible.