UPA’s third innings? Modi, Jaya may spoil the party

As the UPA-2 government stumbles from one crisis to another, it consoles itself with two thoughts. One, that the BJP is too divided to pose a realistic threat in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. Two, that the regional stew known as the Third Front is likely to remain undercooked due to the conflicting ambitions of its disparate leaders.

So, in the absence of a realistic alternative, UPA-2 , despite a scam or two, high inflation, a collapsing rupee and policy gridlock, may win a third successive term. However, history and two strong-headed individuals could prove that theory wrong. First, the history. Since 1967, no government — Congress or opposition — has won a third successive term. The Congress, led by Indira Gandhi , won general elections in 1967 and 1971 but was routed in 1977. The Congress again won two successive Lok Sabha polls in 1980 and 1984 but was decimated in 1989. The NDA won two terms as well — 1998 and 1999 — and was duly defeated in 2004. In order to win a third consecutive term, UPA-2 will have to make history.

The second obstacle in UPA-2 ’s path is Narendra Modi. Despite opposition from sections of the RSS, he is likely to emerge as the BJP’s undeclared prime ministerial candidate in 2014. Modi evokes strong reactions. Many in the BJP want to cut him down to size. JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar has disowned him. The Congress fears him. It spares no effort to denigrate Modi. The conventional wisdom is that Modi is too polarising a figure for even the BJP. But the electoral math could turn this conventional wisdom on its head. Consider the last four general elections of 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2009. The Congress’ average national vote share during this period was 27.30% — ranging from a high of 28.55% in 2009 to a low of 25.82% in 1998. The average number of seats the Congress won in these four Lok Sabha polls was 152 — a high of 206 in 2009 and a (historical) low of 114 in 1999. In a first-past-the-post electoral system, a higher vote share can sometimes lead to fewer seats because of voter concentration in certain constituencies and key alliance partnerships. These permutations notwithstanding, it’s clear that if the Congress’ national vote share slips by, say, 3% over its 2009 vote-share of 28.55%, it could lose 70 or more seats in 2014.

Consider now the BJP’s recent electoral math. Its national vote share in the four Lok Sabha polls between 1998 and 2009 averaged 22.58% — ranging from a high of 25.59% in 1998 to a low of 18.80% in 2009. Its Lok Sabha seat tally during this period averaged 154 – dipping from a high of 182 in both 1998 and 1999 to a low of 116 in 2009. The BJP needs to add around 3% to its average national vote share of 22.58% over the last 14 years to come close to the magical figure of 200 Lok Sabha seats on its own. This is plausible if Modi coalesces the rightwing vote around him as Vajpayee coalesced a more inclusivist vote in 1999 when the BJP won 182 Lok Sabha seats with just 23.75% national vote share. It is a highrisk strategy which could backfire. But if it works, the BJP would not need the JD(U) —whose contribution is anyway unlikely to cross 28 Bihar Lok Sabha seats— to form a government.

That brings us to the second strong-headed player in the 2014 stakes: J Jayalalithaa. With the DMK discredited by the 2G scam and bitterly divided by the succession battle between Karunanidhi’s sons Stalin and Azhagiri, the AIADMK is likely to sweep Tamil Nadu and Puducherry’s 40 parliamentary seats. Jaya’s recent meeting with Modi in Chennai assumes significance in light of a likely modus vivendi between the BJP and the AIADMK at the Centre in 2014. Between them, Modi and Jaya could command 240 Lok Sabha seats. Add traditional allies like the Shiv Sena and the Shiromani Akali Dal and 272 suddenly looks achievable even without the JD(U).

Others will troop in the moment 272 is in sight. They include Naveen Patnaik’s BJD and Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress which could contribute a significant chunk of parliamentary seats from Odisha and Andhra. All of this is predicated on the make-or-break Modi factor. The BJP will have to decide whether an alternative prime ministerial candidate like L K Advani’s protégé Sushma Swaraj or the urbane Arun Jaitley would give it the decisive swing in national vote share it needs to get close to 200 seats on its own.

The answer: probably not. With few like-minded allies, the BJP needs a break-out strategy to win power on its own. The rest will follow.

Author

Minhaz Merchant is an author, editor, columnist and publisher. A recipient of the Lady Jeejeebhoy prize for physics, his books include biographies of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and the late industrialist Aditya Birla. After three years with The Times of India and a year with India Today, he founded, at 25, Sterling Newspapers Pvt. Ltd., a pioneering publisher of six specialised journals, including Gentleman, a political and literary monthly (whose senior editors and columnists included David Davidar, Shashi Tharoor, L.K. Advani and Dom Moraes), and Business Computer, in technical collaboration with Dutch media group VNU (renamed The Nielsen Company in 2007). Minhaz is chairman and group editor-in-chief of Merchant Media Ltd. and founding-editor of Innovate, a magazine for US-based CEOs. He heads the group’s think-tank, Global Intelligence Review. Having played tournament-level cricket and tennis – and rhythm guitar for his school rock band – he likes Dire Straits, R.E.M. and Sachin Tendulkar’s straight drives in roughly reverse order.
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Minhaz Merchant is an author, editor, columnist and publisher. A recipient of the Lady Jeejeebhoy prize for physics, his books include biographies of former. . .