Pakistan Edges Toward First Democratic Power Transfer

A resident removes a bicycle from a bomb-ravaged building in a Shiite neighborhood of Karachi this month.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

By

Nathan Hodge and

Annabel Symington

March 15, 2013 7:04 p.m. ET

ISLAMABAD—Pakistan is expected this weekend to begin the countdown to a general election that, if successful, would be a historic first: the country's first proper democratic transition since its founding in 1947.

On Saturday, the Pakistani parliament's term will expire, paving the way for the formation of a caretaker government that will oversee elections slated to take place by early May. If all goes to plan, it will mark the first time for Pakistan that a democratically elected government has completed a full five-year term and transferred power to a new civilian administration.

The current government, led by the Pakistan People's Party of President Asif Ali Zardari, is now in negotiations with the opposition to select a caretaker prime minister. If the two sides don't agree, a parliamentary committee would name the caretaker. If that fails, the Election Commission of Pakistan, an independent agency, will decide the interim setup.

Election officials and observers said they don't expect the talks over a caretaker to prompt a crisis.

Men in Khaki

Military and civilian rule in Pakistan, 1947-present

1947: Partition of India creates the state of East and West Pakistan

1958: Martial law. Gen. Ayub Khan assumes power.

1962: Pakistan becomes a presidential republic under Ayub Khan.

1969: Martial law. Power transferred to Gen. Yahya Khan.

1971: India-Pakistan war and secession of East Pakistan leads to creation of independent Bangladesh; power handed over to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and the Pakistan People's Party.

"This is a qualitatively different moment for Pakistan," said Moeed Yusuf, South Asia adviser at the U.S. Institute of Peace, a Washington-based think tank. "This is the first time you are actually seeing a real electoral, institutional process being taken very, very seriously."

Whether it is taken seriously outside Pakistan is another matter. Even though the country returned to civilian rule after the ouster of Gen. Pervez Musharraf's military-led government in 2008, Pakistani military and intelligence has retained oversight over key foreign-policy and security matters.

"The military has everything they wanted in terms of the internal security policy and also foreign policy," said Pir Zubair Shah, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "They did everything to push the civilian government to the wall."

The military, which has ruled Pakistan for half of its history, doesn't want or need to take over overtly this time because it can exert enough pressure through the judiciary and the media, he added.

In neighboring Afghanistan, which is struggling with a Pakistani-backed insurgency, government officials said they cared little about the outcome of Pakistani elections. "The civilians have no power," an Afghan official scoffed.

Still, the precedent of a civilian government completing its term, and possibly peacefully handing over power to the opposition, should strengthen Pakistan's democracy—and, in the long term, weaken the military's role, analysts say.

"The longer democracy institutionalizes, the more bold politicians can be in trying to wrest power away from the army," said Christine Fair, a professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program. "We're all vested in this election going off freely, fairly and maximizing voter turnout, so whatever government emerges is going to be maximally legitimate. And that's exactly the thing that the army fears."

In the process of choosing a caretaker, the independent election commission will play a pivotal role. Once seen as pliant and politically influenced, the body gained more power and independence from party politics through a constitutional amendment passed in April 2010.

The ruling PPP has seen its approval ratings fall over a faltering economy, endemic corruption and a failure to combat an Islamist insurgency that has claimed thousands of lives and threatens to complicate the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

But the PPP also has a formidable organization—it is one of the few parties that has national reach—and enjoys reservoirs of support because of its historic link with the Bhutto dynasty, particularly in the southern province of Sindh. Mr. Zardari's wife was former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, assassinated in 2007. Their son, Bilawal, is the PPP chairman.

The main opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz—led by Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister who was ousted by Mr. Musharraf's coup—will be the PPP's main challenger. It has traditionally dominated the politics in the country's most populous province of Punjab.

Another key contender is Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, led by cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan.

Pollsters say voting patterns in populous provinces such as Punjab and Sindh are fairly stable, with votes usually going to the traditionally dominant parties. In the violence-racked provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, they say, outcomes may be harder to predict.

Ijaz Shafi Gilani, who heads Gallup Pakistan, a polling organization, said fewer than 50% of eligible voters have showed up to cast votes in recent elections, although he added that turnout could be higher this year. Young voters, he added, may form a potentially large new voting bloc in this year's election—although their voting numbers, too, are uncertain.

Pakistan's last election, in 2008, was extremely turbulent. This year's campaign already has been marred by violence. A district election commissioner was shot dead in Quetta, in the province of Baluchistan, on Tuesday.

Observers also question whether elections can take place safely in the sprawling mega-city of Karachi, Pakistan's main commercial hub. Election officials have said that balloting will proceed in all parts of the country, and the army has promised to provide security at polling stations and in sensitive areas of the country.

A recent wave of sectarian attacks is adding to the tensions. Since the beginning of this year, large-scale attacks on Shiite Muslim communities in Karachi and Quetta have claimed the lives of nearly 250 people. This month, rioters torched and looted more than 160 Christian houses in an arson spree in the eastern city of Lahore.

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