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First the EU referendum, then the election of Donald Trump. In 2016, investors were surprised by events that pollsters and other experts said wouldn’t happen, although on both occasions stock markets swiftly recovered before reaching new highs.

One of the most overlooked risks for financial markets over the next decade is the potential for the US to impose tariffs on imports. This risk is greatest if Donald Trump wins on 8 November. Yet our analysis suggests conditions are ripe for protectionism to have broader popular appeal: less extreme politicians than Mr Trump could use it to secure votes.