Earth's magnetic field is in a state of dramatic weakening – and according to new research, this phenomenal disruption is part of a pattern lasting for over 1,000 years. Earth's magnetic field doesn't just give us our north and south poles; it's also what protects us from solar winds and cosmic radiation – but this invisible force field is rapidly weakening, to the point scientists think it could actually flip, with our magnetic poles reversing.

The last reversal of the poles towards today's orientation took place 780,000 years ago. Earth's magnetic field serves as a shield against dangerous radiation from space, especially the Sun's charged particle flux. Since 1840, the year systematic measurements began, the global strength of the magnetic field has decayed at a rate of about five percent per century. Since that time, a significant anomaly of reduced magnetic strength has appeared over the South Atlantic: the South Atlantic Anomaly. Within the research community it is a subject of debate whether this anomaly is a sign of an imminent reversal of the Earth's magnetic poles.

Based on a reconstruction of the Earth's magnetic field of the past, scientists from the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences and the Universities of Iceland, Liverpool, and Nantes now show that the anomaly is probably not a precursor of a switching of the poles.

The area of the South Atlantic Anomaly is characterized by a significant reduction in the strength of Earth's magnetic field compared with areas at similar geographic latitudes. Here, protection from harmful radiation from space is reduced. This leads, for example, to a higher rate of satellite communication blackouts or higher doses of radiation for passengers of long-distance flights.

This Hubblecast video tells the story of what happens to the Hubble Space Telescope in the mysterious region known as the South Atlantic Anomaly. When satellites pass through this area they are bombarded with swarms of intensely high energy particles. This can produce 'glitches' in astronomical data, malfunctioning of on-board electronics, and has even shut down unprepared spacecraft for weeks.

Reversals of the Earth's magnetic field have been common throughout Earth's history. The process of a field reversal is accompanied by a reduction in field strength and reduced protection against hazardous radiation from space.

The strength of the geomagnetic field at Earth's surface three times during the past: 48,500 and 47,250 thousand years ago and in 2015. The geomagnetic field of the past showed areas of weak intensity similar to today's South Atlantic Anomaly over South America and the southern Atlantic, for example 48,000 years ago. The anomaly of that time did, however, not lead to a geomagnetic field reversal, about one thousand years later the field recovered to a stable state of field strength. (M. Korte/GFZ)

Within their new study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America PNAS, the scientists reconstructed past changes in Earth's magnetic field using paleomagnetic data from sediment cores and volcanic rocks from across the globe. Magnetic minerals in the rocks and sediments "record" the orientation and strength of the Earth's magnetic field at the time of rock formation. For the time interval of 50,000 to 30,000 years before present the data base is especially good, so that the scientists were able to model the changes of the magnetic field globally.

During this time interval there were two occasions when weak magnetic field over the South Atlantic and South America resembled today's field. In both cases the field strength in this region increased again after some time and the anomaly disappeared. The low intensity areas did notlead to a reversal of the poles.

41,000 years ago, a short-lived reversal of the poles occurred, the so-called Laschamp excursion. During this time, Earth's magnetic field switched polarity for less than one thousand years, with the pole returning to its original polarity.

At the beginning of the excursion, the field showed a significantly different pattern of reduced magnetic strength across Earth's surface than today.

"Based on our observations of the past 50,000 years we conclude that the South Atlantic Anomaly cannot be interpreted as a sign for the beginning of a reversal of the poles," said Monika Korte, co-author of the study and team leader in the GFZ section on Geomagnetism. "Times of the past that, unlike the beginning of the Laschamp excursion, showed patterns of the magnetic field like today were not followed by a pole reversal. After some time the anomalies disappeared."

The scientists can, however, not say how long today's anomaly will persist. It is possible that the strength of the field will further decay for several centuries. The last reversal of the poles towards today's orientation took place 780,000 years ago. It may take thousands of years before the magnetic field reverses again.