Fantasy Football: Top 10 wide receivers

By Dan Nowak dnowak@nhregister.com @NHRDanNowak on Twitter

Published 1:27 am, Tuesday, August 20, 2013

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FILE - In this July 26, 2013 file photo, Detroit Lions receiver Nate Burleson runs through drills during an NFL football training camp in Allen Park, Mich. Burleson and Ryan Broyles appear to be healthy after having season-ending injuries, and the Detroit Lions need them to be because receiver Calvin Johnson needs some help. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File) less

FILE - In this July 26, 2013 file photo, Detroit Lions receiver Nate Burleson runs through drills during an NFL football training camp in Allen Park, Mich. Burleson and Ryan Broyles appear to be healthy after ... more

Photo: AP

Fantasy Football: Top 10 wide receivers

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NEW HAVEN >> Like Adrian Peterson when it comes to running backs, Detroit’s Calvin Johnson is a no-brainer as the top receiver chosen in fantasy football drafts whether you’re in a standard league or point-per-reception league.

For that matter, Cincinnati’s A.J. Green is easily the No. 2 pick based on his potential.

But after those two picks it’s been a crapshoot. In July and early August Chicago’s Brandon Marshall was routinely the third receiver taken, but lately the Cowboys’ Dez Bryant has surpassed him.

There are three guys in my Top 10 — New England’s Danny Amendola, New Orleans’ Marques Colston and Denver’s Wes Welker — who have been going in the fourth to sixth rounds. They have been anywhere from the 15th to the 30th receiver picked overall.

And don’t lose sight of what it means for Arizona receiver Larry Fitzgerald to finally have another decent quarterback (Carson Palmer) throwing balls his way.

1. Calvin Johnson, Detroit: He had great yardage last season (1,964) but only managed five touchdowns. New back Reggie Bush should take enough defensive pressure off him to potentially increase all his stats.

2. A.J. Green, Cincinnati: Last season, I preached to everyone in the preseason who would listen to make Green a high pick in their draft. He ended up with 1,350 yards and 11 touchdowns, and I expect those numbers to grow even more with two years of experience behind him.

3. Brandon Marshall, Chicago: Last season he was quarterback Jay Cutler’s No. 1 option and ended up with 118 receptions, 1,508 yards and 11 touchdowns. In Thursday’s (Aug. 15) preseason game, likely a preview to the regular season, it was deja vu all over again as Cutler targeted Marshall on all five of his passing attempts.

4. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona: How much do you think Fitzgerald is champing at the bit to get this season under way with a quarterback who can actually throw the ball? Here’s a quote from a recent USA Today story: “Look, this is a big year for me, coming off my worst season as a pro,” Fitzgerald said. “I know Carson wants to play well this year. This is a huge year, and we’re leaning on each other. It’s simple as that. I need him as bad as anybody, and I’m going to go out there and give everything I can for him.” My projection is 100 receptions, 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns.

5. Danny Amendola, New England: The thing about New England quarterback Tom Brady is he makes everyone around him better. Heading into the 2007 season, the Pats added receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss. Welker was mediocre in his previous three seasons as a pro with San Diego and Miami with a combined 96 receptions, 1,121 yards and one touchdown. Moss was considered washed up by many NFL writers after a dismal 2006 season of 42 receptions, 553 yards and three touchdowns with Oakland. Be careful where you draft these guys some of the fantasy experts were saying, while I believed both players would have impressive seasons with Brady chucking the ball to them. Moss ended with 98 catches, 1,493 yards and 23 TDs. Welker finished with 112 receptions for 1,175 yards and eight TDs. Health has been an issue with Amendola, but I see 95 receptions for 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns.

6. Dez Bryant, Dallas: His production has improved each season and he should lead all Dallas receivers with 95 receptions, 1,300 yards and 14 TDs.

7. Marques Colston, New Orleans: I am keying on many Saints players after the team missed the playoffs last season. I believe they are on a mission to take no prisoners. Colston had solid stats last season, but I think they improve with 90 receptions, 1,300 yards and 13 TDs.

8. Wes Welker, Denver: Welker has been a surprise to me in preseason drafts. Because many people believe Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker will limit Welker’s touches, those two have been drafted several rounds earlier than Welker. I don’t see Welker getting another 110-plus receptions, but he’ll be a dominant player with Thomas and Decker likely getting the most defensive attention. I see Welker with 90 receptions, 1,200 yards and 12 TDs.

9. Victor Cruz, Giants: I’m predicting a big season for quarterback Eli Manning this season and that bodes well for Cruz. With a five-year contract extension signed in the offseason and that distraction behind him, I see 90 receptions, 1,200 yards and 12 TDs.

10. Andre Johnson, Houston: The Texans will still center their offense around Arian Foster, but Johnson is still the No. 1 option at receiver. If he plays in all 16 games he should get 90 receptions for 1,100 yards and nine TDs.

NOTE: Dan Nowak covers fantasy sports for the New Haven Register and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He won the FSWA Industry Insiders Fantasy Football League championship in 2010, a competition among 120 of the nation’s fantasy football experts. Follow Dan’s team this season at http://www.rtsports.com/fswa.