What is the Unrest Risk Scale?

Social Surveys Africa has conducted a unique analysis that identifies the underlying characteristics of peaceful protest and violent unrest. On this basis we can reliably predict the likelihood of Protest (either peaceful or violent) and the likelihood of Violent Unrest at a community level. When tested against a sample of past protest incidents, the scales correctly predict 96% of protest cases and 99% of violent unrest cases.

The Protest Risk and Violence Risk Scales show that communities with histories of protest have statistically distinct profiles from those without, and communities with peaceful protest have different characteristics from those with violent unrest.

What do the Protest and Unrest Risk Scales allow you to do?

Know where: Identify communities with higher risks of protest and of violent unrest.