Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 2068

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

45%

National

3%

2%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6

46%

46%

46%

47%

Labor

38.0

34%

34%

34%

32%

Greens

11.8

12%

12%

12%

12%

Other/Independent

6.6

8%

8%

8%

9%

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

53%

53%

54%

55%

Labor

50.1%

47%

47%

46%

45%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,929

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6

47%

46%

47%

46%

Labor

38.0

35%

34%

34%

34%

Greens

11.8

10%

12%

12%

12%

Other/Independent

6.6

8%

8%

8%

8%

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

53%

54%

53%

Labor

50.1%

46%

47%

46%

47%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition leader?

7 Mar 11

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition leader well and is keeping the Government accountable

41%

42%

11%

78%

13%

Tony Abbott is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the Government

43%

44%

78%

13%

73%

Don’t know

16%

15%

11%

10%

14%

42% believe that Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition leader well and is keeping the Government accountable and 44% think he is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the Government. These figures have not changed significantly since March and views very much follow party preferences.

45% of men think he is performing the role of Opposition leader well compared to 38% of women and 51% of those aged 55+ think he is just opposing everything compared to 40% of those aged under 35.

Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?

7 Mar 11

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

27%

28%

40%

11%

77%

Total bad

41%

39%

19%

68%

6%

Very good

7%

9%

11%

3%

40%

Good

20%

19%

29%

8%

37%

Neither good nor bad

33%

33%

41%

21%

17%

Bad

22%

21%

13%

33%

5%

Very bad

19%

18%

6%

35%

1%

28% of respondents think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good for Australia and 39% bad. This is very similar to the results obtained for this question in March. The only substantial change is that Labor voters are now more positive – in March they responded 33% good/25% bad.

Q. What do you think is the main reason for the increasing cost of living?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The strong Australian dollar

17%

30%

9%

17%

Excessive company profits

18%

24%

10%

27%

Lack of competition

14%

18%

9%

24%

Economic management of the Federal Government

28%

8%

51%

9%

Economic management of State Governments

6%

3%

8%

6%

Wage increases

4%

3%

4%

3%

Don’t know

14%

14%

8%

14%

28% believe that economic management of the Federal Government is the main reason for the increasing cost of living. 18% blame excessive company profits and 17% the strong Australian dollar. Only 4% said wage increases.

Most of those blaming the Federal Government were Liberal/National voters. Labor voters nominated the strong Australian dollar and excessive company profits while Greens votes said excessive company profits and lack of competition.

Q. Which political party do you think best represents the interests of –

Labor

Liberal

Greens

Don’t know

Families with young children

34%

31%

5%

29%

Students

30%

28%

10%

33%

Working people on average incomes

40%

32%

5%

23%

Working people on low incomes

43%

27%

6%

24%

Working people on high incomes

13%

63%

2%

22%

People on welfare

38%

23%

8%

30%

Pensioners

33%

28%

5%

34%

Small businesses and self-employed

20%

47%

4%

29%

Big business

13%

62%

2%

23%

The next generation of Australians

19%

31%

17%

33%

Indigenous people

23%

21%

16%

40%

Ethnic communities

22%

21%

15%

42%

Rural and regional Australians

18%

34%

11%

36%

The Labor Party is considered the party which best represents the interests of working people on low and average incomes, people on welfare and pensioners. The Liberal Party is considered best at representing the interests of people on high incomes, big business, small business and self-employed, rural and regional Australians and the next generation. The Greens’ main strengths are in representing the next generation, indigenous people and ethnic communities.

There was little difference between the major parties in terms of representing the interests of families with young children, students, indigenous people and ethnic communities.

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

23%

51%

10%

26%

Kevin Rudd

32%

31%

31%

31%

Wayne Swan

2%

1%

3%

3%

Greg Combet

4%

5%

3%

6%

Bill Shorten

3%

3%

3%

4%

Someone else

19%

5%

31%

11%

Don’t know

17%

5%

18%

19%

32% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 23% prefer Julia Gillard. Julia Gillard is preferred by 51% of Labor voters compared to 31% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 34% to 21% and women by 30% to 25%.

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

7 March

14 March

28 March

18 April

23 May

30 May

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

35%

38%

34%

39%

41%

38%

62%

17%

62%

Total oppose

48%

49%

51%

49%

44%

48%

22%

73%

23%

Strongly support

9%

12%

12%

13%

14%

14%

26%

4%

29%

Support

26%

26%

22%

26%

27%

24%

36%

13%

33%

Oppose

19%

17%

19%

15%

15%

19%

13%

23%

17%

Strongly oppose

29%

32%

32%

34%

29%

29%

9%

50%

6%

Don’t know

18%

13%

15%

12%

15%

15%

16%

11%

14%

38% support the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme and 48% oppose. Although a change from last week’s figures this is much the same as recorded in the April poll. It is supported by 62% of Labor and Greens voters but opposed by 73% of coalition voters.

For those who believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 60% support and 24% oppose. For those who believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate 13% support and 80% oppose