Bank of America's Ting Lu expects exports to climb 1 percent
year-over-year (YoY) in September. This is down from 2.7 percent
in August, and against the 5.5 percent, according to a consensus
of Bloomberg
analysts.

Lu writes that exports are likely to stay in the low single
digits or even close to zero for a few months because of the
slowdown in Europe and the U.S..

Imports

Lu expects imports to climb 1.5 percent YoY in September, up from
-2.7 percent in August. The consensus of Bloomberg analysts
expect imports to rise 2.4 percent on the year.

Analysts watch import and export data because they can both be
independently verified by comparing it with trade numbers
reported by other countries. Moreover, SocGen's Wei Yao has
pointed out that it is an important data point for China
hard/soft landing watchers since it has a tremendous domestic
component and shows the state of domestic demand growth.

Trade balance

Lu expects the trade balance to narrow to $26.2 billion
in September, from $26.7 billion in August.
Economists polled by Bloomberg expect trade balance to shrink to
$20.54 billion.