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This is the second in our continuing series of blog posts analyzing trends in apprehensions along the southwest border. The first piece in the series can be found here. In this segment, we discuss our data sources and some of the challenges associated with measuring our quantities of interest. SWB Apprehensions Data The Department of Homeland Security publishes official data on the number of immigrants apprehended while attempting to illegally cross the border between ports of entry. For more than fifteen years, these figures have been released annually, reflecting sector-level data for each month of the preceding year. In the model to…

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The Southwest Border is a complex environment for the federal law enforcement personnel tasked with apprehending persons attempting to enter the US between legal ports of entry (POE). In this multi-part blog series we’ll explain how a team[1] from Novetta used modern Bayesian inference to model factors influencing the numbers of apprehended immigrants attempting entry.[2] In particular, we will demonstrate the utility of this approach in unpacking the forces that influence border crossing attempts between POEs. The posts will address: The problem: We’ll describe the environment and the phenomenon often referred to as “illegal immigration” or “undocumented entry” along the US…