October 7, House Committee on Science Hearing
"The Administration's Proposed Bail-Out for Russia"

In the waning days of the 105th Congress, the House Science
Committee held a hearing to examine NASA's request to transfer $60
million immediately to the Russian Space Agency (RSA) so it can
complete work on the Service Module and purchase long-lead items
for Soyuz and Progress vehicles. In return, cosmonauts would
conduct U.S. space experiments during assembly of the International
Space Station -- effectively doubling research crew time -- and the
U.S. would gain additional stowage space to enhance research
activities.

In his opening statement, Science Chairman James Sensenbrenner
(R-WI) once again hammered the Clinton Administration for failing
to adequately deal with Russia's shortcomings on the space station.
"Instead of a solution," Sensenbrenner argued, "the Administration
is asking for a blank check."

The Wisconsin chairman said the "White House does not want to
admit that its management of our relationship with Russia is
fundamentally flawed." He emphasized that the "Administration needs
to take the Russian government out of the critical path -- now." If
it fails to do this soon, Sensenbrenner announced he would work
with other members of the Science Committee to draft legislation to
accomplish this goal.

Sensenbrenner also thrashed NASA and the Administration for
"lobbying the Senate to oppose the NASA Authorization bill in order
to escape accountability." This action, he explained, thwarts the
"desire of the American people to have accountability and sound
management in government." Sensenbrenner warned the lobbying effort
is "treading on dangerously thin ice."

Ranking Member George Brown (D-CA) said chastising the
Administration for putting Russia on the critical path of the space
station assembly might be "psychically satisfying and provide an
opportunity for scoring rhetorical point," but does little to
address the pressing matters at hand.

Six witnesses were invited to testify at the hearing. OMB
Director Jacob Lew and Deputy Secretary of State Stobe Talbott
could not appear due to other pressing matters. The testimony of
the other four witnesses follows:

Daniel Goldin, NASA Administrator

NASA is "trying to smartly keep Russia off the critical
path," but to accomplish this goal it needs additional resources,
according to Mr. Goldin. He urged committee members to boost the
funding for the ISS. The exact amount required has not been
determined, although NASA estimates it will likely be about $150
million per year for additional procurements of Russian hardware or
capabilities as a "contingency to preclude significant schedule
deterioration."

NASA is looking to implement other backup protections.
"Development of a U.S. propulsion module, coupled with the ESA
Ariane Transfer Vehicle (ATV) and Japanese HTV," Goldin explained,
"would provide complete replacement of Russian vehicles for ISS
attitude, control, reboost, and resupply, if required." Goldin
announced that NASA will fly an additional space shuttle mission in
FY 2000 to conduct research and is "studying the potential for two
additional dedicated research space shuttle missions."

Jay Chabrow, President of JMR Associates

"Since May, not a single ruble has flowed from the
Russian government to RSA," Mr. Chabrow noted. He termed the $60
million to bailout Russia an "aspirin" that is needed to cure an
"immediate headache." But he cautioned committee members that
"precautions should be taken to assure that in the process that
this doesn't turn into a migraine for the U.S."

Chabrow said he agreed with NASA's approach to buy down the risk
caused by Russia's nonperformance "because of the negative
consequence of doing otherwise." Without the near-term
participation of Russia, costs would be considerably higher than
what is now contemplated.

Chabrow emphasized his deep concern that "NASA has not moved
forward and initiated the procurement of long lead items for a
propulsion module." He said "It is imperative that NASA expedite
this development activity."

In addition to Russia's difficulties, Chabrow said "the U.S.
laboratory and other elements have continued to incur schedule
erosion, the de-staffing plan has not been met, the prime contract
cost has continued to grow, and multi- element testing is being
pushed out by software and hardware problems."

Judyth Twigg, Assistant Professor of Virginia Commonwealth
University

The prospects for Russian space funding are "not
bright," Ms. Twigg warned. "Belts are being tightened in Russia's
budget sector more than ever before," she said. The "bulk of scarce
government funding has gone to current operations likely to attract
foreign cash, such as commercial launch activity," and future
priorities for spending, she explained, are "unlikely to include
the International Space Station."

Russia's space industry is decaying, according to Twigg, and
"even a substantial infusion of new funding could not renew
previous levels of activity in the short or medium term." From its
peak in 1990, employment in Russia's space sector is down by almost
50 percent. "The youngest, most energetic and creative members of
the space industrial workforce have joined the more lucrative
commercial or financial sectors," she said. Wage in the space
production sector now are only three-quarters of Russian's national
average.

"Russia is very close to becoming nothing but a contractor for
other countries' space programs," Twigg noted. Looking to the
future, she cautioned "it will become increasingly difficult for
Russia to meet its obligations even to paying customers or to
partners in international cooperative space endeavors."

James Oberg, Aerospace Consultant

Mr. Oberg questioned Russia's ability to meet its
obligations even if the U.S. provides additional resources. He
accused NASA of overestimating Russia's capacity to honor its
contracts and said continuing to rely on Russia to build critical
elements is the "longest Hail Mary pass in history."

Russian officials, Oberg said, are attempting to maintain Mir
instead of deorbiting the facility next summer, as now planned. He
said it is inaccurate that the Service Module is 98 percent
complete and suggested that there is "launch fever" to place the
initial ISS elements in orbit later this year.

About the NSS Capital Capsule
The Capsule is a timely report of highlights from Capitol Hill
hearings and other events involving space issues. Prepared by NSS
staff or volunteers who attend in person, the Capsule provides NSS
members and activists an "insider's" look into the thoughts of our
national elected officials on space issues.

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