Rookie production in a strange year

Doc BearJul 11, 2011 12:00 PM

It's pretty much an inevitability that the lockout will create issues for all players new to their teams, whether traded players, veteran free agents, draftees or undrafted rookies. Even if a new agreement were reached tomorrow (an unlikely scenario), countless players will already be so far behind the curve, having missed out on playbooks, mini-camps, OTAs and coaching that they won’t be able to contribute right away. For some rookies, their first year could end up a lost one, as coaches will tend to use veterans when possible - they know the game better, and in the Broncos' case the offensive players will be working out of a simpler version of Josh McDaniels' playbook that they’ve already had to master, so they face a stronger likelihood of playing well.

But many of the draft picks are looking at an uphill climb. I think that LB Von Miller has a good shot at contributing right away - he’s played within both 3-4 and 4-3 defenses in college, he was moved around quite a bit as a senior in his Joker role and he’s played in coverage as well as setting the edge and attacking the quarterback. He’s likely to be on Robert Ayers’ left for a lot of his plays, and that won’t hurt either - Ayers has two years under his belt, although he was hurt for part of last season, and he’s shown that he’s a steady player who sets the edge, collapses the pocket and who will clear the way for Miller quite frequently. The strong side of the Broncos' defense could be tough to gain yardage against. For those reasons, Von’s likely to pick up quickly on the Broncos' defensive scheme, whatever it may be, because he’s already bounced from scheme to scheme and excelled in each.

Secondary

Second-round pick Rahim Moore will have his work cut out for him at safety, and I’ve noted before that this could work to his advantage. He might sit for a while, and could have more time to learn how to be an NFL player in terms of taking care of his body, putting on muscle and learning the system until it’s instinct. Who will start in centerfield is still up for debate - how many safeties Denver will keep at all is going to be an interesting question. Darcel McBath’s injuries could count against him. David Bruton’s ST skills will speak for retaining him, and Brian Dawkins will be kept, although I suspect that his $6 million salary will be renegotiated. He’s going to be there mostly to mentor the younger guys and to provide leadership. Renaldo Hill is a player who has to be on the edge, given the size of the safety group and his own $2.4 million salary. You have to assume that Quinton Carter and Moore are locks, as are Dawk and, I suspect, Bruton. That leaves Kyle McCarthy, Hill and McBath fighting for the fifth safety slot. Bruton might also have a struggle, but given his production, I think that ST coordinator Jeff Rodgers will want him back. Denver also has Nick Polk, but he’s facing unfavorable odds in the numbers game.

As I’ve mentioned, I think that S Quinton Carter is a lock to make the team, and I don’t expect him to start in the upcoming season except on special teams. I think that he was going to have to take a year or two to get into the shape and to attain the level of understanding that will put him on the field with great regularity, but at the same time, this is a tough kid to bet against. He’s powerful, quick more than fast, but has good recognition skills, which are worth a chunk off his 40 time (4.62 at Combine, in his case). Carter is someone who will have to start out on STs and earn his way to more playing time on defense. It will probably take a year or three, and that’s just fine as long as he shows his talents on STs.

The Broncos didn’t pick up a cornerback, and the ones already on the roster all have some experience. Champ Bailey will be back, thanks to his new four-year dea, and Perrish Cox’s trial isn't scheduled to take place until October, so he can contribute at least for a while. Nate Jones was brought on as a nickelback and also can play some safety - that’s an advantage, but his play was less than optimal. It might just be that I didn’t see him when he was playing really well, but I’d put him up as a maybe. Andre' Goodman is a cypher - his tackling is pretty sloppy, but his coverage is good. I suppose that his fate will depend on what the Broncos want to do on defense. The assumption is that the D will be aggressive and utilize a lot of zone coverage - I can’t say if that hurts Goody or not. Syd’Quan Thompson should stay, based on his progress last year. Cassius Vaughn showed some ST skills last year, with a return for a TD in the final minutes of Denver's season. That may help him. Chevis Jackson has problems with speed, and he’s been talked about as possibly moving to safety, but that wouldn't help his case with the Broncos. I don’t see him making the squad, but time will tell.

Front 7

LB Nate Irving definitely has lost some quality time due to the lockout and Joe Mays has taken the opportunity to become the starting Mike very seriously; working out with Dawkins since March and studying the playbook he was fortunate enough to receive. Irving will probably back up Mays, at least for this year. Again - that might work in his favor. Irving needs to muscle up some, and he’s going to have the chance to do that, and to learn what’s expected of an NFL Mike. He’s got good recognition skills for the college level, and he needs to develop them for the NFL. Some time to focus on that may help him. I don’t doubt that he’ll start at either Mike or Will at some point, but the lockout will make it hard for that to happen this season.

LB Mike Mohamed and DE Jeremy Beal have even tougher roads ahead. I expect Mohamed to make the team and to be a special teamer and backup linebacker - he can play every LB position, which makes him valuable and his ST work in college was promising. I don’t know that he’s going to make it past a ST/backup player, at least for quite a while, but you also need quality depth, and he provides that. The importance of STs can’t be overstated - look at San Diego’s struggles there last year. They went from one of the best to one of the worst, and it cost them games. Denver has had the same issues.

Beal isn’t really suited for STs, just on the basis of his slower time in the 40. However, he has the heart, the desire for it, and he takes excellent angles to the ball. That may prove helpful to him. He’s not all that slow - his on-campus 40 time was 4.65, while Carter’s was 4.62. Beal’s problems come from his Combine performance, in which his 40 time rose to a stratospheric 5.16, and his bench press dropped from 31 reps on campus to 22 reps in the Combine. The same was true across the board - he had a 6.98 on-campus drill time, but he produced a 7.19 at Combine. He ran his 20-yard short shuttle on campus in 4.18, but slowed to 4.46 at Combine. His vertical fell from 33 inches on campus to 28.5 at Combine. The rest of the drills show the same pattern - he just had a lousy day at Combine. That’s the root of his fall to late in the seventh round but it also is in direct opposition to both his on-campus drills and his production over the four years he was at Oklahoma. I’ve watched actual game film on the guy, and he plays a lot faster and hits a lot harder than his Combine showing would suggest. Which do I believe - four years of production plus his on campus drills, or a rough day at Combine? Film wins with me every time. There’s a logjam at DE, with Ayers, Elvis “Doom” Dumervil, Jason Hunter and David Veikune also fighting for the four spots that Denver will likely keep.

Beal will have to show in practice what he did at Oklahoma in order to stay on. He’s essentially a strongside backup, and I don’t know if Veikune will be able to handle the move back to DE: I do think that the decision will come down to Veikune versus Beal. Veikune was a standout special teams player with Cleveland and that’s in his favor, but they let him go based on his play despite having selected him in the second round of the 2009 Draft. Veikune stands 6’2” and weighs in at 257. Beal is also 6’2”, and weighs 262, so they’re close to even there. What’s in Beal’s favor are his 29 sacks at Oklahoma, second in the school’s history and fourth in the Big 12 Conference, as well as his 56.5 tackles for loss, the second-most by an FBS player which rank second in Oklahoma history. He added 11 forced fumbles to set a school career-record. That also ranked second in Big 12 history and stands seventh on the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision’s all-time record list.

Beal wasn’t recruited out of high school, even though he was a Prep Star All-American, a first-team All-State linebacker as a senior, the team’s Defensive Player of the Year and the District 10-5A Defensive Most Valuable Player in 2005. He redshirted in college for his first year at Oklahoma, and then started only two games as a redshirt freshman. He started every game as a RS sophomore, though, with 8.5 sacks and 15.5 TFL, to go with 61 tackles and three forced fumbles. Then he got even better over the next two seasons, earning All-American status both years. You can read his Broncography here . I really like this kid, and that probably influences me, but when you look at his on campus testing and his production over the four years he played at Oklahoma, there’s a lot of reasons to believe that he’ll be in the mix at DE.

Gabriel also commented,

On defense, linemen probably have the best chance to play early, especially if they are outstanding pass rushers. At the least, the good pass rushers can play in passing situations and just be turned loose. It may take a bit longer to play on running downs only because the coaches have to be sure they know the defense. A simple mistake can lead to a big play because the defender is out of position.

It’s a fair point, and it’s also encouraging for Beal. Beal’s history of sacks and TFLs suggest that he could have a place as a pass rusher, whether during this season or in the future. It’s interesting how one bad day at Combine can overshadow a substantial body of work, but that’s just the way it is. It will be up to Beal to show the coaches which view of him is more accurate.

Offense

RT Orlando Franklin will make the team, but he may have his work cut out for him in terms of cracking the starting lineup. Greg Gabriel recently noted that offensive linemen will probably be slow to develop, and Franklin may be hurt by that. I’ve already heard the cries that he’s a likely bust - it’s interesting that a bunch of folks with little or no skills at breaking down film, who haven’t had the benefit of spending time with the player, seeing how he responds, pressing him on the whiteboard to see if he really knows the game and is dedicated to it or any of the advantages that the Broncos have had can predict the future so well. Since the draft is generally a crap shoot, the critics always have a chance of being ‘right’, but not because they have any realistic reasons for their opinions. Coach Fox pronounced in early May that Franklin will be pushed into place at right tackle immediately, although I’d be surprised if he didn’t struggle at times during his first year. It makes no difference. Mike McCoy was succinct in his analysis:

"When you see him on the field, you'll understand what we're talking about," the offensive coordinator said. I think that covers it - either way.

Moving on to TEs, it’s hard to doubt that fourth-rounder Julius Thomas is a lock. Denver won’t expose him to the possibility of someone snatching him off the PS, so while I’m not sure that he’s going to make the 45-man active roster on game day for a bit, he’ll be on the 53-man roster (which may be expended for this season). Third-year player Richard Quinn is a lock: Fox and Co. have spoken highly of him. Despite the initial struggles that he had learning both the playbook and NFL blocking, which were perfectly normal in making the NFL jump, Quinn has contributed on special teams and began to really show his skills later in the 2010 season. After those two players, things become a bit murky.

The big question is likely to be between Dan Gronkowski and Virgil Green. A lot of teams were surprised when Green dropped to the seventh round - so was I, and I loved the pick. Green is probably more NFL ready than Thomas and may give Gronk a run for his money. Green isn’t great at changing directions, but he’s a fine weapon when placed on the wing and sent vertically up the seam. His blocking is unusually good for a player his size (6’3”, 249 lb): he was considered perhaps the most NFL ready of the TEs in this year’s crop by quite a few draft watchers: although it wasn’t a brilliant bunch, there were players with every combination of blocking, route running, speed and hand use available. Gronk, on the other hand, made substantial progress last year. Was it enough to earn a roster slot? I don’t know - carrying four TEs would mean a player dropped off of a different position, unless the NFL has the sense to expand the normal and game day rosters, a topic that’s on the table for negotiation. If they do, both Gronk and Green might stick. If not, it will be a tough competition.

Conclusion

There’s no question that how the rookies arrive in terms of conditioning, their aptitude at learning the playbook and their willingness to work very hard will all come into this equation, but the lockout has placed many of the rookies in tough slots. There will be less time to evaluate them, so standing out (whether on STs, in whatever preseason games are played or in practice) is going to be essential. Players will have to make an impression quickly or risk losing their chance with Denver, as will be true all around the league. There will also be an emphasis on obtaining and playing quality veterans to contend with.

The final decision on roster size will also affect how many rookies Denver is going to keep. There will also be the CFAs to consider, as well as the probability of additional free agents - that market will be insane, and Brian Xanders has already announced that Denver is fully ready, has their veteran and rookie FA targets already marked and are going to go after them from Day 1. It would be great to see Denver picking up a couple of top players, particularly at DT where the Broncos need both UTs and NTs. They haven’t really opened their wallet to obtain top talent in quite a while, and the good news moving forward is that has left them cash-heavy and far under the cap.

The timing is there - can they convince top veterans who aren’t too old that the Broncos are a good option and have a serious shot at the playoffs soon? John Elway was wise enough to declare a three-year rebuilding process. The first draft looks good on paper, but paper shreds in the winds of change. The Broncos have to be able to bring home the kind of talent that makes the playoffs. Since the rookies are at a disadvantage this year, how well Denver does in free agency will be essential in establishing how well they do next season. The two positions that I expect to see receive the most emphasis are running back, where Denver is thin, and defensive tackle, where they are nearly empty. The OL could use some better backup talent, but the WR and TE positions are full.

On defense, Denver’s in good shape in the secondary, where some tough calls will have to be made. They are, after a heck of a draft for the position, very solid at linebacker, and in good shape at DE as well. The Broncos have started their rebuilding well, I tend to think, as far as the first draft goes. We won’t really know for years. Now they need to show the fans that they are serious about rebuilding by making waves in free agency and by bringing in CFAs who really have a chance to push people in training camp and who may demand slots on the main roster. It’s a great opportunity for the team, and the Broncos will be up against a lot of other teams who will be doing much the same thing - coming out of the free agency and CFA gates with a full head of steam. It’s going to be interesting to watch.

Go Broncos!

Learn to laugh at yourself. You will be ceaselessly amused. - Sri Gary Olsen

You can reach Doc at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or follow him on Twitter @alloverfatman

I understand the issue with the TE position - I run into it a lot too. One fan called it the &#8216least important position on the field&#8217. I tend to follow Sid Gillman&#8217s comment that with two good ones, you can control the entire center of the field. Given the in-line possibilities, which can include 2 and even 3 TE sets, the chance to put another player in motion to test the D on man vs zone, the difficulty in defending one who goes over the middle in a short yardage situation, the effectiveness in beating Cover 2 by sending a faster one up the seam (something that Denver specifically mentioned in talking about in both Virgil Green and J. Thomas&#8217 possible roles) and the option of playing one from the Y or the wing slot, the possibilities are pretty much endless. One reason that I&#8217m hoping for an expanded regular season roster is the option of keeping an extra TE around. As you note - you can already do so, but you&#8217ve got to take the slot from somewhere else.

My initial MOCK roster was drawn up for the sole reason of seeing if 4 TEs fit. It&#8217s hardly impossible but distorts things elsewhere. Rosters don&#8217t have to be balanced and we could easily go with 24 on defense. In fact, we only have 6 LBs right now, so 10 DBs and 8 DLs makes 24 (24-def., 26-off., 3-specialists).

I have to admit that I&#8217ve always liked the TE position. There&#8217s just so many different ways to use them. I&#8217ve tried to describe all the ways and reasons they&#8217re handy but I&#8217ll just have to leave that task to the &#8216Xs and 0s&#8217 people.

Posted by colinski on 2011-07-14 09:45:28

I had to laugh, colinski - your scattered thoughts are as organized and eloquent as most folks&#8217 articles. Thanks for them, as always.

Re DTs: One thing that hasn&#8217t been brought up much is the reality that most DTs (Suh is an exception, in a lot of ways) take 2-4 years to fully develop. Even granting that Denver&#8217s in a three year rebuild, most draft DTs won&#8217t be able to contribute fully in 2011 and many not much in 2012. Several available veterans should be ready much more quickly, and the FA market is very big this year. Denver has a certain level of luxury in their cap space, the way that Xanders has gotten dead money off the books and in available cash. I&#8217m expecting one of the better DTs as well as a solid rotational DT and two good RBs.

Paige noted today that Denver needs to obtain another TE, and that left me confused - which of the 4 the Broncos have does he expect to not return? Probably Gronk, but even then - you&#8217ve got 3 already. Until we hear the final roster number, that&#8217s all we can comfortably fit. He did suggest that Denver should be looking at a low-starter level OT, and I agree on that. Having an option if Franklin needs time to develop (most OL players sit for a year and learn the pro game) is just good sense. Since it&#8217s a 3 year project, how both OT and DT is handled this year is relative, although I, too, was disappointed in the Broncos not obtaining one in 3 drafts running.

I&#8217m also on board with you regarding Vickerson - his athleticism, production and obvious effort on every down were things that I commented on at the time last season and I&#8217m glad they wrapped him up for a couple of years. We&#8217ll have to wait and see on Thomas - we won&#8217t be the only offer he gets, I suspect, but there are several DTs that I&#8217d be happy to get. Note to Broncos - Blaine Sumner! He&#8217s not just a CFA - he&#8217s a monster. Needs a lot of polish, but looks to be well worth the effort over time.

Thanks for your thoughts, my friend.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-07-14 02:22:29

SCATTERED THOUGHTS

Re: DT v. S in the draft. What tends to be missed is that drafts are contingent processes. A team operating on a BPA strategy isn&#8217t going to deviate in a major way from its rankings solely because a position is considered as an imperative need by fans. Moreover, part of the run defense deficiency we experienced last year and in later 09 is due to collective breakdowns and problems at LB - which we addressed. As one analyst put it&#8212we weren&#8217t bad on every play but the frequent breakdowns killed us. And added to that, we were porous over the middle on pass defense so teams found a way of continuing drives on 3rd down situations. Typically, I advocate for also strengthening &#8216bordering factors&#8217 (pass defense when run defense is the problem, or pass rush when run defense is the problem). The contributory factors tend to be forgotten as fans isolate on one area.

I won&#8217t pretend that I like the fact that we didn&#8217t draft any DTs but I have to admit that bringing in veteran FA DLs is a superior short-term solution (and we did that year). That doesn&#8217t make it a likable solution but the distinction is better; not perfect. A single run-stopping DT and an increase in LB speed can have a dramatic effect, especially with an effective pass rush. We tend to forget that removing options makes offenses more predictable and less effective. There&#8217s a hint of magic bullet thinking regarding a DT draftee and it&#8217s combined with the draftee as savior myth. I think we&#8217ll have to settle for solidifying the DL for now and trust that our BPA draft strategy is delivering high overall value and hope that the DT problem is solved eventually.

BTW&#8212I have to say that Vickerson intrigues me as a 3-tech. Combine him with a Thomas re-signing and a good FA and we don&#8217t look that bad.

Posted by colinski on 2011-07-13 23:15:47

Good question, Piper.

Beal has dominated on the strongside up until now, and his play against the run has been excellent. His style of play reminds me of Ayers, and that led to my comment. However - when you&#8217ve got Miller, Ayers (who scores very high in hurries, which are as useful in their way as sacks), Doom, perhaps DJ, perhaps WW, with two DTs, you&#8217re going to use Beal in a rotational role. That&#8217s why he has to beat either Hunter or Veikune.

If we assume that he does, he can be used to give Ayers a breather, to close the open (weakside) edge off against the run or in a front that specifically emphasizes the pass rush. As an example of that later option, there was a play during Ayers rookie season where they moved him to the 1 tech as a DT. He was double-teamed by the center and guard, spun out of their grasp to the weakside and hurried the throw. In such a formation, you could put Vickerson next to Ayers, and Beal to the outside, with Miller playing rover and Doom coming in off the weakside DE slot. It would be tough to defend against and a hurried pass is much more likely to lead to turnovers.

As far as the PS, I agree with you fully. I don&#8217t recall names, but several teams have successfully fed on Denver&#8217s PS. Denver did the same at times with Shanahan at the helm: McD picked up a few off other teams&#8217 PS late in the year, and that&#8217s common. The center was Greg Eslinger, I believe, who&#8217s currently a FA after tours at Cleveland and with the Texans (and one in the now-defunct NFL Europe with the Cologne Centurions). However, I completely agree that the team that holds the player on the PS should have first right of refusal. Seems only fair.

Denver has Lance Ball, who was on their PS and Tennessee&#8217s, as well as doing a short stint with the Colts. A lot of lower ranked RBs are from the PS of other teams - J. Johnson is another. OT Chris Clark is from Minnesota&#8217s PS, etc. It&#8217s fun to run down the Denver roster and read the comments - if any - on the players who you haven&#8217t seen play. Lots have bounced around on other PS&#8217s.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-07-13 02:46:22

First a question on Beal, then a comment on practice squad. Why would Beal back up strong side DE? If his strength is pass rush, shouldn&#8217t he be backing up Doom on the weak side? I like the idea of a 3-3-5 nickel with the line of Beal, Ayers, and Doom.

Players don&#8217t get poached off practice squads all that often. The team signing the practice squad player must add that player to the ACTIVE roster. I don&#8217t ever remember Denver getting a player from somoene else&#8217s practice squad. The only player I remember Denver losing is that center from Minnesota, Greg E(spelling?). The Browns signed him from Denver&#8217s PS. After that I think the Browns cut him, the Texans picked him up, and he didn&#8217t stick there either. He was supposed to be a good zone blocking center prospect but, unless he did stick in Houston after all, didn&#8217t make it in the NFL.

One improvement that could be made, if a team wants another team&#8217s practice squad player, the current team has first option to put that player on the active roster.

Posted by Piper A R on 2011-07-12 23:55:22

Enough of those and we’ll be able to say they didn’t win. Fox likes speed and especially disruptiveness. I think I’m going to enjoy watching the Broncos play defense for the first time in quite a while.

Me, too, spock.

BTW, Clady had torn a pec muscle the day of his Combine, and it was rumored that it was a factor in his dropping to the 12th pick. Tom Brady had a similar injury during his Combine and that and the bizarre situation he had in college (the alumni were strongly in favor of a different QB, and the coach actually would have each start a quarter and the one who played best - usually Brady - would play the next half. Wild stuff) were among the factors that influenced him dropping in the draft. Beal&#8217s case is interesting in that I&#8217ve never heard of a player getting slower and weaker while making Defensive Player of the Year, so as far as Beal goes, I&#8217m voting for a bad day at Combine until we see evidence of anything else.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-07-12 23:08:46

Nice stuff on Beal, Doc. His on-campus numbers make his on-field success less baffling and are more credible than his combine numbers. Maybe he was sick that day, or in the midst of a crisis. If so, yeah, we got a steal. Also, the Sooners aren&#8217t in the minor leagues. Beal did what he did against big-time competition.

Fox is bidding to turn the pass rush into an area of overwhelming strength, and with Dumervil returning plus two potential pass rush phenoms it&#8217s the part of the defense that might go from worst to first the fastest. If we could make third down passes hard to complete it would do wonders for the defense getting off the field. And if turnovers also multiply each will similarly have ended a series, a turn, in which the other team didn&#8217t score. Enough of those and we&#8217ll be able to say they didn&#8217t win. Fox likes speed and especially disruptiveness. I think I&#8217m going to enjoy watching the Broncos play defense for the first time in quite a while.

Posted by spock on 2011-07-12 22:10:51

Great job Doc!

I can actually see Fox and the boys punting more on the rookies than they will on the vets.

From Elway&#8217s own words, this is a 3 year project. Now, sticking with rookies they like and hand picked, vs. vets they inherited might sway them. If they can put together a core of young players from the get go, throw them in the fire a bit they could develop them more quickly.

We need to hold onto the vets that are above average players, but I hope they punt on the rookies and start building a young roster. I trust Fox emphatically, and hope he is here for at least 5-10 years, and that we build stability and thru the draft.

One thing Fox has here is an owner who will spend, so I think he can build a team faster, and for longer, than the opportunities that Jerry Richardson (who is one of the most frugal owners out there) provided him.

Awesome article as always my friend!

Posted by Boydy2669 on 2011-07-12 18:23:10

SteveUk I think what happens in Beals situation at the combine. Some people tend to put to much pressure on themselves when they see someone put up good numbers. He probably got caught up in how the other guys were performing and lost track of what he needed to do. If I could give Jeremy Beal any advice it would be this:

Don&#8217t worry about what the others are doing. Just be yourself and listen to the coaches and work hard at what your being taught. You have no control anything but what you do. Do this and you&#8217ll be fine.

As far as the rosters I seem to remember something written along the lines of why they went with a 45 man active list. If you have a 53 man roster suit all 53 up. I think this would cut down on some injuries as it give coaches more players to work with and keep some of your starters off ST and allow those who are still trying to prove themselves a chance to shine on ST.

Also with the practice squad. In reality we have no minor league system with which to develop players. By not allowing another team to poach your developmental players it gives you a basis for building and developing for the future. Baseball has a 40 man roster. This is so they can protect certain prospects. If they can&#8217t protect all 8 on practice squads then give each team a chance to freeze 3 or 4 so they can be protected but for 2 years only.

These are just my thoughts

Posted by papasteven on 2011-07-12 10:45:17

Great article Doc.

I really liked the Jeremy Beal pick. Fox has after all said he prefers a &#8220gamer&#8221 and Beal seems to be exactly that.

Have there been any explanations as why Beal performed so poorly at the combine?

Posted by SteveUk on 2011-07-12 07:03:15

Excellent point, BK. Nearly every year, it seems, we (rightfully) complain about the poor quality of play of the special teams. This year, we obtained several players who fit the mold quite well. While I share the concern with DTs, I also appreciate that the players we obtained are perfect for that most commonly ignored (by fans) part of the game. Several also show considerable potential as starters and quality backups (or rotational players, which is quite different) over time. I&#8217m hopeful both that Rodgers can right that problem, and that he&#8217s got some helpful pieces on board now.

As far as Beal, when I wrote his Broncography I hadn&#8217t found his on-campus numbers yet. It&#8217s hard to imagine that he&#8217d consistently play as well as the film showed that he did with the kind of numbers he showed at Combine, but much easier when comparing the on-campus stats. Our friend Andrew Mason over at MaxDenver.com also did a production comparison between Beal and 1st round pick Ryan Kerrigan. This is what he found:

CAREER SACKS: Beal 29, Kerrigan 33.5

CAREER PRESSURES: Beal 42, Kerrigan 30

CAREER TACKLES FOR LOSSES: Beal 56.5, Kerrigan 57.0

2010 SACKS: Beal 8.5, Kerrigan 12.5

2010 PRESSURES: Beal 15, Kerrigan 9

2010 TACKLES FOR LOSSES: Beal 17.0, Kerrigan 26.0

Not bad for a 7th round pick. I hope that he can make the jump to the pros - he could be a steal.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-07-12 01:45:26

Great article, Doc.

I checked the link for Mike McCoy. It turned out to be an interview with McCoy, DC Dennis Allen and ST coordinator Jeff Rodgers. Rodgers had this to say about the draft: &#8220Really with this draft, when you draft 3 linebackers and 2 safeties and a couple tight ends that can flat-out run down the field, those are the kind of guys that I usually work with,&#8221 (I ended it in the middle of a sentence.) 7 guys to compete for a field of 11. ST should be very good this year.

Good stuff on Jeremy Beal. Ted had us taking him early on in one of his mock drafts - I think the 2nd round. Ted knows his stuff. I&#8217ll bet this kid pushes very hard to make this team.

I am happy to know that EFX are primed for the FA period. They have their work cut out for them.

Go Broncos!!

Thanks, Doc.

Posted by BlackKnight on 2011-07-12 01:00:33

Herc I agree with you. I mean if the player costs are fixed at 48% of total revenue or whatever it ends up being then the financial impact is much lower on the owners. I think it would allow them to do a much better job developing players which lets everybody win.

Posted by Fan in Exile on 2011-07-11 20:44:37

If you find the article, Herc, let me know, would you? I&#8217d like to put that one in the archive.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-07-11 19:55:40

I think it&#8217s a no-brainer that rosters get expanded this year, but beyond that I think it&#8217s good for the game to expand rosters permanently. You can start by allowing all 53 players to dress on game day. I can&#8217t recall the reason for the 8-player inactive list, but I read a good article on it recently, and suffice it to say it&#8217s now thoroughly antiquated. and after that, why not expand the overall roster by a couple of slots? or at least the practice squad. I know, I know, that&#8217ll increase the average career length for the players, resulting in more players being eligible for retirement and long-term medical benefits, which the owners don&#8217t want to see. But if those increased costs can be shared between the owners and players (which is fair IMO), then isn&#8217t it good for the game to have larger rosters these days? Who&#8217d you rather see fill in on your team after a rash of injuries - a guy who&#8217s bounced around from team to team for the last couple of years, whom your team brought in at the last minute, or a guy who&#8217s been on your team&#8217s practice squad for the last couple of years? Larger rosters elevate the quality of play on the field, and they&#8217re more fan friendly. A lot of fans enjoy following the career of the on-the-bubble players trying to scratch out a career, even if they rarely make the field. It&#8217s fun to follow and root for these guys, whether they turn out to be a Rod Smith, a Wesley Woodyard, or a Bradley Van Pelt.

Posted by Hercules Rockefeller on 2011-07-11 19:41:27

It&#8217s a fair point on safety vs DT, FIE. My own thought is that it&#8217s possible that Denver doesn&#8217t see Bruton or McBath as realistic options and with Dawk and Hill aging and Jones a mediocre safety at best, they felt that obtaining and coaching up Moore and Carter made more sense. I think that all of us will want to see their plans for DT in free agency (and possibly CFA, as in Blaine Sumner) before coming to a final conclusion, but I&#8217d agree that the repetitive failure to develop DT has been a problem for several years.

Once we see the specifics of the defensive scheme, that may help make some sense of it as well. While we may have some struggles with both positions, the goal is to have the team come together withing three years, rather than one. There were too many holes to fill in one draft - and once they set the board, at least they stuck to it.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-07-11 19:33:16

Nice work Doc.

Whenever you look at the picks for safety I just get frustrated. I just don&#8217t see the marginal value there to make them worth it right now. Especially compared to DT.

Posted by Fan in Exile on 2011-07-11 18:42:33

Thanks Doc, appreciate the thoughtful write-up. I agree on Beal, he&#8217ll probably have to beat out Veikune and Hunter to stay on the roster. Another good TC battle to watch (if we have a TC).

Posted by MW730 on 2011-07-11 18:35:54

Sleepy, I haven&#8217t heard a specific number pushed forward, but like many of us, there&#8217s a point at which my brain no longer registers the rumors of progress. One may have been put forth, but nothing is settled yet so I wouldn&#8217t place any bets, regardless. I&#8217d like to see the camp numbers up around 90 and the final roster to be expanded by about 4 players, with at least two added on game days, but that&#8217s just my own feelings on it. Without any specific plans for player development, the teams will have to work it from within, and greater numbers give a better choice.

Btw, Good point on talent this year. When you look at teams like the Pats, Colts and Steelers where turnover is minimal on the coaching end, having a set scheme and players that are mostly well-developed gives those teams a huge advantage going into next year.

And Ralph: Shirley. There, I said it. I&#8217d do it again <img alt="wink" height="19" src="http://www.singernet.com/images/smileys/wink.gif" style="border:0;" width="19">

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-07-11 17:17:44

PS Has there been any mention of what the final roster sizes wioll be?

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-07-11 17:03:24

Thanks Doc, I appreciate your opinions. I think more than any other year shear talent will be important since offenses and defenses will be simplified. Teams that have team veterans in an established system will be at an advantage since their offense-defense can be more complex.

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-07-11 17:01:52

Doc, thanks for the Monday thoughts. I am certainly looking forward to how this roster shapes up. Surely, there will be a few head-scratching picks and a few disappointing cuts (&#8221...and don&#8217t call me Shirley&#8221).