HR data round-up March 2013: Peak jobs, part-time work and endangered species

XpertHR’s HR data round-up for March 2013 looks at the rise in part-time working in the UK and abroad, and at whether this might be a sign that we are approaching ‘peak jobs,’ and whether the full-time employee could be about to go the way of the dodo. We also provide links to all the latest additions to XpertHR Benchmarking and present our regular round-up of the best HR data blog posts.

The UK labour market is experiencing a long-term trend towards a strong rise in part-time work, with the creation of part-time jobs outstripping the creation of full-time jobs. This trend was accelerated by the economic downturn.

But what are the implications of this rise in part-time work for organisations and for workers?

Are organisations at risk of losing vital knowledge and expertise through the rise of a contingent workforce?

Could the traditional, full-time employee become an ‘endangered species’?

And is the rise in part-time work a symptom of the ‘peak jobs’ phenomenon?

Here, we look at data on the rise of part-time work, and assess each of the above questions.

Could organisations ‘get dumber’ due to the rise in part-time working?

The composition of the workforce is changing fast, with part-time job creation overtaking full-time jobs over recent years both in the UK and overseas.

Yesterday, Graham Frost shared his views on the rise in part-time working, via comment here on the XpertHR blog:

In my opinion, the growth in the number of people in work is due to the growth in the number of people in part-time work. Of course, if you are in part-time work, you need more than one part-time job to survive.

Canadian HR blogger Jane Watson highlights some potential consequences of the rise in part-time working for employers and for workers:

“[T]he traditional employee [could] become an endangered species in the years to come.”

The UK labour market benefited from the strongest growth in full-time jobs seen since 2005, which rose by 394,000 over the three months to December 2012.

This was more than double the rate of increase in part-time jobs, which rose by 190,000 over the same period.

…but full-time jobs remain significantly down on pre-recession levels

However, ONS notes that despite this, the number of UK workers in full-time jobs remains significantly down on levels seen prior to the economic downturn:

The more recent increases in full-time employment have not offset the falls that occurred through the 2008-09 recession. For the most recent period in October to December 2012, full-time employment was 378,000 lower than in April to June 2008, the first quarter of the 2008-09 recession. Part-time employment was 572,000 higher compared with the same period.”

The long-term trend would appear to be for the gradual replacement of many full-time jobs with part-time jobs. It remains to be seen if the more recent trend for the creation of full-time jobs to overtake that for part-time jobs can be sustained.

Is the UK approaching ‘peak jobs’?

Could the long-term trend towards a rise in part-time work mean that the UK is approaching a ‘peak jobs’ scenario?

In simple terms [...] ‘Peak Jobs’ is the idea that technology is replacing jobs faster than it’s creating them.

Shane argues that this trend is likely to affect most if not all industrialised countries. He has analysed data on long-term labour market trends in Australia and the UK to see if we might be approaching peak jobs. Shane’s conclusion is stark:

With an increasing working age population and a growing gap between jobs available the future is looking anything but certain, especially with the rise of labour augmentation and robotics replacing jobs [ever] quicker.”

The UK created an additional 4.093-million new jobs; from 25.635-million in early 1992 to a record 29.729-million jobs at the end of 2012 (the pre-GFC high was 29.572-million in Mar-May 2008). The UK has steadily increased its working age population since 1992 (due to a combination a slightly lower than replacement fertility rate plus a higher immigration to migration ratio) which has left it with 3,734,000-million less jobs than that required to employ the 7.828-million increase in the working age labour force.

(The chart above is reproduced with Shane’s kind permission.)

Shane concludes that the UK could be fast approaching a ‘peak jobs’ scenario, and that the rise in part-time work is evidence of this possible trend:

In conclusion looking at the UK ‘employment type’ data is further confirmation of a global trend toward greater reliance on part-time employment, which on one hand is increasing employment to record levels while at the same time decreasing the amount of work available. Has the UK reached peak employment yet? I’m not convinced it has but the more I look at the global data the more I am convinced we are reaching that point in the next decade.

Could peak jobs mean that HR’s days are numbered, meaning that the profession will have to evolve into AIR (artificial intelligence resources)?

The “HR into AIR” concept was floated in a very interesting Google+ comment on the issues discussed here. See the image below for all G+ comments on this topic so far. The full text is also reproduced directly below the image.

Quarsh: “Great post Michael, a very interesting though that the UK could have reached its optimum job number. Perhaps HR can evolve into AIR (artificial intelligence resources) when it is such that the workforce is replaced by technology.”

Michael Carty: “Cheers for the kind words, and I am very taken with the “AIR” concept! Is that one you came up with yourself? Might be worth copyrighting right now, if so!”

Lucie Anabella: “I think part-time working is a very useful tool in business.

“There is a risk of a lack of continuity but surely if you have the right people in the right role and they are managed effectively a part-time work force could serve as a very cost-effective method of staffing a firm. Why pay a full-time salary if you don’t have to?

“Part-time working is also great for society. As more and more families need a second salary coming in, the option to work part-time or flexible hours is very useful. Especially if you consider the cost of child care.”

Michael Carty: “Hi Lucie! Thank you for taking the time to comment here. As you point out, there are certainly a number of potential advantages to part-time working, both for employers and for workers. However, I would argue that the rise in part-time working seen over years isn’t necessarily a singularly positive phenomenon. Part-time working is an excellent solution if it suits both employer and worker. But what if the worker really wants to work full-time, and there just aren’t there full-time roles available? Mervyn Dinnen makes this point very well in this post: http://mervyndinnen.wordpress.com/2013/01/08/temporary-workers-want-permanent-job/“

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HR data blog post round-up: March 2013

Here’s our latest monthly pick of top blog posts on HR data issues from XpertHR’s blogs and other blogs:

“The government’s claim that it has created a million private-sector jobs is false,” argues economist David Blanchflower. He presents detailed analysis of UK labour market data here, and also looks in detail at the trend toward underemployment suggested by these figures. Follow David on Twitter.

David says here that HR doesn’t have “to sit on the sidelines and hold off on making evidence-based, predictive decisions using Big Data. There is a way you can start small with Big Data. In fact, it makes sense for many companies to ease its way into Big Data.” Please do let me know what you make of the six steps set out by David here! And are there any more you might like to add? Follow David on Twitter.

Driverless cars = “2 million truck and taxi drivers out of work”? If the discussion of ‘peak jobs’ at the top of this post has got you intrigued, might I also recommend this Techcrunch post from Jon Evans? Evans argues that “software is eating the world, endangering almost every job there is,” with the consequence that “America has now hit peak jobs.” The potential impact of driverless cars on truck and taxi drivers is just one example of an area of employment that could soon become extinct. And where might HR find itself when humans have left the office building? Definitely one to ponder. Follow Jon on Twitter.

A great (and apparently room-silencing) question is raised here: “Is anybody here creating predictive analytics that aren’t about turnover?” “Predicting the future gives you the ultimate in flexibility and adaptability,” says Cliff in this post. So why aren’t predictive analytics more widely used by HR?

About XpertHR’s monthly HR data round-up

XpertHR’s round-up of HR data for March 2013 is the latest instalment in an ongoing monthly series.

Each post in this series highlights latest HR data releases from XpertHR and other sources, alongside links to news stories and blog posts of direct or indirect relevance to issues around using HR data.

If there are any HR-related data measures you would like to see covered in future XpertHR data round-ups, or if there are any surveys or HR data blog posts that you would like to see highlighted, please do get in touch. You can submit comments via the box below, or contact me directly via Twitter, LinkedIn or Google+.

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