Country Living Series

Monday, June 8, 2015

Response to concerns by an urbanite: Part 2

We had quite a lively discussion on Don's last blog post "Response to concerns by an urbanite: Part 1" in which he wrote a lengthy rebuttal to a person he called "Terry" who addressed weaknesses on the part of rural preppers, the bottom line of which was that urban escapees shouldn't be underestimated.

Don has lots more to say on the subject, so here's his Part 2.

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Sorry for the delay in getting to part two. As you can see by the last Friday Roundup, we've been pretty busy around here.

First let me say kudos to PioneerPreppy [note: you can see his posts in the comment section of Part 1] for the demographic work on dispersion. It is spot-on. I've done some similar calculations; but for Terry, I'd like to take it a bit more "hearts and minds." Some of the very important considerations of a metroplex dispersion (or potential "Golden Horde" event) are the physiological and psychological aspects.

The "Golden Horde" or mass self-evacuation of cities as a result of a TEOTWAWKI event is a common element in lots of apocalyptic literature. While I won't deny such dispersals may occur, I think far too much weight has been placed on such events.

Like PioneerPreppy, I am a "Golden Horde" denier.

Lots of folks, when commenting on urban mass migration, use the largest mass evacuation ever to occur in the U.S. as an example: that of New Orleans immediately prior to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. There is so much literature and so much well-publicized finger-pointing for the failures of government with regards to the evacuation that most folks don't realize what an amazing success the evacuation really was. By the combined titanic (no pun intended) efforts of federal, state, and municipal governments, roughly 80 percent, or as many as 800,000 people, were removed from the path of the hurricane prior to landfall. Estimates range from 100,000 to 200,000 people who were unable or unwilling to evacuate.

A great success, yes ... but ... this was just one large city, certainly nowhere near the largest in the USA. Billions of dollars were spent on the evacuation, whole multi-lane highways were converted to "exit-only," airlines moved tens of thousands, and increasingly strident governmental recommendations and finally demands to evacuate began five days before the expected landfall. And yet the largest daily percentage of New Orleans residents still didn't leave until 12 hours before Katrina came ashore.

That's one city.

What would happen if it was ten large cities? Or twenty? Or a hundred? Suppose that there was no warning? An EMP attack. A coordinated power grid attack. A catastrophic natural disaster. What would happen if there was no one to tell folks what to do? No one to hold open the roads? No means of communicating instructions?

I'm currently finishing up an e-booklet on how to bug out from a city that will appear soon on our Country Living Series website. Let me quote from a part of it:

"...how would you leave a large urban area if such assistance was not available; if there was no functional governmental evacuation plan? If the usual travel systems (roads, rails, aircraft) were blocked or nonoperational?

If you were on you own?

To put it bluntly, if you have to evacuate from a large metro-complex in a catastrophic TEOTWAWKI scenario, your chances of survival are frighteningly low. Let's be realistic. In a major and immediate catastrophe, individual and familial survival will reign supreme. The already-thinning veneer of community in most cities will shatter. If looting and rioting is already commonplace after a successful win by a local sports team, or by the real or politically-manufactured effects of a police shooting, imagine the degree of societal breakdown likely to occur after the explosion of a dirty bomb or the loss of all electronics following an EMP attack."

Studies and surveys conducted by various governmental and educational institutions have shown that most urban residents, without any authoritative guidance, will remain in place for up to a week before self-evacuating. But what will they do when they finally realize no one is coming to their rescue? In the ten largest cities in America, over one-third of the urban population does not own a car. In New York alone, 56% of the residents don't own an automobile.

And consider this: even in the best of conditions, on a normal day, a simple fender bender can shut down a major highway for hours.

Now: "... imagine a more grim scenario. A situation so dire and so widespread and so immediate that people like tow truck drivers, emergency service personnel, and police – in other words, those professionals who usually manage events like these – are busy elsewhere, dead, or are in the process of ‘bugging out’ themselves. Also imagine how much more likely a traffic jam would be in a situation where tens of thousands of people are attempting to flee a catastrophe while scared and stressed and furious. One simple mistake by you or someone else, and your vehicular escape route may become impassible for a very very long time."

This is not just a possibility. It is a virtual certainty.

Remember in my first post, I briefly discussed the differences between city and country folk with regards to neighborly relations? Suppose that all the exit roads were blocked (quite possibly on purpose – more on that in a minute). Suppose that the street lights and traffic signals were out. Suppose you had to walk out. Would you be prepared? After a week of waiting for someone to save you, would you be hungry? Thirsty? Would the folks walking alongside you be as friendly as they seem, or would they simply be waiting for the right moment to relieve you of your meager possessions? How would you rest without someone you know and trust to keep watch? How far could you go in a day – tired, scared, with children or elderly or injured relatives – especially knowing that anything that might have been worth eating or drinking on your chosen path has already been consumed?

Terry, with regards to your " ... large groups [traveling together] for safety ... armed to the teeth.” How and where did this group form up? Presumably they didn't know each other before the catastrophic event. Who is in charge of this group and what is their motivation? Where did the group members get their guns? Gun ownership per capita in large cities is much smaller than their country cousins, and most of the available guns will be hand guns (what rural people refer to as "the kind of gun you use if you have to fight your way back to your long guns").

But let's say you've got together with twenty like-minded folks for your long walk out of town, dodging wrecked and abandoned vehicles along a highway. Your bad week will begin to get worse. Long before you get to face off with a bunch of country bumpkins, you're going to get some hands-on training from an entirely different breed: the urban sharks who would never even think of heading to an uncertain great wilderness when the hunting is so much better close to home.

Remember, this is a TEOTWAWKI situation. Law enforcement is quite likely to be long gone. The hunting season is now wide open for the unsavory types the police usually keep in check, and there's no longer anything like a bag limit. These are the folks who might block roads intentionally (as mentioned above) under the universally understood concept of "fish in a barrel.”

You and your traveling companions will consist of: baristas, accountants, school teachers, and social workers. Experience with weapons: little to none.

The urban sharks will consist of: gangbangers, thugs, muggers, one-percenters. Experience with weapons: actually not all that much, but better then yours – and with no moral compunction against their use for personal gain or pleasure.

The point: Most of the people who will attempt to leave a large city in a SHTF scenario will never leave that city alive.

But let's think (at least temporarily) happier thoughts.

Let’s say you and your significant other and your child did manage to find a clear road. You are one of the 66% who owns a car and you just happened to top off the tank the day before. It's a good thing you did, because no one will be delivering fuel to the service stations for a very long time; and even if the gas stations have fuel, the owners (being realists) won't share – even if they can get the fuel out of the tanks without electricity to drive the pumps. But let's increase your luck. Let’s say you managed to overcome the distrust of strangers and "clubbed-up" with a hundred other folks who also have their own full-tank vehicles, and everyone in the group has a firearm of some type.

(Apologies to all the fiction writers out there; I know I'm really pushing the credulity factor.)

Let's say you cleared the suburbs without incident (even though that is probably not possible). Congratulations! You made it to the country.

This is good stuff, we have friends who live in Southern California and they always joke about coming to stay with us in an emergency situation, and we sadly shake our heads, they will never make it, they are living in a fantasy world. Can't wait for part 3! Will send URLs to our friends!!

If it gets totally tshtf, bad food (no refrigeration,) bad water and exposure are going to take out an incredible number of people.So many will die that then diseases from the dead and unburied will take out many more.I doubt 10% of the population east of the Mississippi would survive.

Now what? It really doesn't matter. If it's summer, you'll go about 250 miles before the fuel is gone (forever). You probably have no food and very little ammunition. 250 miles isn't really in the country - you're just in smaller cities at that point - any available food is long since gone. Ultimately, you're dead. If it's winter, you're dead sooner.

I wonder if you might be better off doing some stocking up in your apartment including several thousand rounds of ammunition. If you can manage to survive in-place for a couple of weeks on your storage, you will be able to leave the area by stepping over the bodies. Don't worry about having to shoot another human being. You'll get used to it.

Cecil, given the circumstances you may be right. If any urbanite plans to bug-in I have two recommendations. If you are not good with God do so NOW. Secondly, the absolute best how-to bug-in manual that our group has found is 'A Failure of Civility' The new edition can be pre-ordered at http://www.afailureofcivility.com/ Read it and prepare accordingly.Montana Guy

I love it. Can’t wait for Part 3. That must be the part where the city dwellers show up at our door with casseroles in hand.

Of the 56% of New Yorkers who own cars, I wonder how many will be able to even find their car if their valet already bugged-out? And how many know how to change a flat tire? There may be some debris in the road between Suite-Sweet-Suite and Grandma Bumpkin’s.

Great story! But a story it is. We have seen many countries collapse financially or via war and nothing you are describing has ever more than a couple of days. Yes there have been food shortages, yes there have been multiple gang murders, yes cities have had riots. One of the only civilizations to really collapse were the Mayans; maybe the Western Roman Empire.

I am guessing in Part 3 we will hear how the rural army is now prepare to destroy the few tattered survivors who make it out of the cities. If so, look no further than the Sunni and Shiite tribes to see how that little tiff works out.

I think folks are engaging in some wishful thinking. How and where did the large groups form? They already exist, and they are called gangs. In Texas, one gang has 13,000 members spread across several cities. Los Angeles has an estimated 100,000 gang members. They are overwhelmingly young males, accustomed to fighting, with poor judgment and willing to take risks others would consider to be crazy. They are armed. Take a look at Mexico for another example. These groups exist now, and the only way I see to stand up to them is by forming strong communities of like-mind people.

I just moved from one such community. I don't think they are rare as one might think. It wasn't by design, it was just part of living there. End of the road, one way in, abutted to a mountain. You weren't getting in without coming up a hill in wide open country to a place suddenly shrouded with trees. The US cavalry learned all about it the hard way. The snow covered mountains immediately behind us had our back.850 people, either poor and living mostly off the land or not poor and living mostly like it. Due to the probability of early fall blizzards (September) or late spring (June) blizzards, food storage was normal and mandatory. Many folks, such as ourselves and our friends, kept years worth of food.Three churches. High percentage of Christian folk. Gun culture. You can carry concealed without permit, and everyone did so. Rifles were a common sight and people could hunt in town.Speaking of hunting, the deer were so thick, almost every year we could legally harvest 6 or 7 apiece. From our yards, generally.A high percentage of retirees from the military and they weren't paper pushers. They seem to have a homing beacon for places such as that town. Aside from retirees, there were a plethora of prior service.Those blizzards I spoke of gave the residents lots of practice living without. Without electricity or plumbing for a week or more. Everyone heated with wood, knew how to handle bathroom chores and kept drinking water on hand. It's not too hard to heat up food, or cook a meal on a wood stove, especially when you've been practicing it seasonally for awhile.You didn't have to worry about your neighbor thinking you were odd because you had beans, bullets and band aids, because every one had them. If you didn't you were a fool, BUT, our little town had a food panty that we kept stocked from within our own community, just not with bullets. Most people I knew had long term food to restock that same community pantry with if there should be a collapse of the type people fear the most. The few residents that were not like minded would head to the nearest town down the mountain, as they did when the weather was going to prevent them from going there to their jobs. Most had friends and family down there. Everyone in town knew who the unprepared were and there were very few.

I'd also like to say that it was a lifestyle dictated by the harsh winter that lasted usually 8 months. Half of those 850 people were only summer residents, either living somewhere else, often out of state, or snow birds that left for AZ, TX or CA in November, between storms. Those gangs people write about would need arctic gear, too, and lots of sacrificial lambs to get into that town.

I'm not sure I can fully explain why we moved. It was very much like paradise during the summers. But there was no fall or spring, unless you count those single weeks that occurred between summer and fall. I coached soccer for our little three room school team and there wasn't one spring season that my kids practiced or that we did not arrive in snow pants, boots, parkas, gloves and hats, to strip down to shorts and team t-shirts in the town 20 miles away where the fields of play were.

We felt drawn to move, and I felt it was the Lord leading us to. We still have our place there, as it hasn't sold and that's okay. It will sell when the Lord deems it to sell, if that is His will. We found this little town by accident and returned to look at property and the listing for the place we purchased had just that morning been placed. I've never in 18 years of marriage and in 7 home buying adventures EVER heard my husband say, We'll take it, immediately after seeing a property one time. He usually fills legal tablets up with pros and cons and how do we pay this off type scratchings. It's been a good thing, so far, and trusting the Lord helps tremendously.

I guess my main point it that communities exist, either intentionally formed or unintentionally formed.

I traveled to Chicago on one occasion, rented a car from the airport and then asking for direction to a smaller town just 28 miles from the airport. The woman had no clue concerning the city I mentioned. I was some what shocked, I was going to a very popular location, however she had never heard of the town or how to get there. She had to refer me to a gentleman that worked with her, he wasn't exactly sure either. When I reiterated where I was going, they both commented that they had lived in Chicago their whole lives and had not traveled much. I thought, not traveled much, it's only 28 miles away by freeway. Case in point people wont leave when they have perfect opportunity, why would they leave when they can't. Oh, and town I was traveling to, Great Lakes, Illinios, my son was graduating from the Naval Base Training Program.

Yep! I live in Chicago, and made a similar comment after part 1. My prediction is that city people will stay put & die off fromlack of water, food, and disease. Violence will be internal to the city and after the first winter anyone left alive will make a go of it...in the city. The population will be so drastically reduced that plowing up the park and keeping a chickens and goats next door (former house, now a barn) could keep 5-10% of the current population of the city alive. Life would be (literally) like the 1400's but some people always survive. Chicago already allows the keeping of livestock (chickens, goats, rabbits) and a small slice of the population already does keep animals for food. Eventually a survivor will get a hold af a boy rabbit and a girl rabbit. (Someone's) life goes on.

Please don't take offense to this, but in my opinion you are severely, totally underestimating the survival skills of those dwelling in urban areas. This is pretty typical -- most country folk do -- they LOVE to believe the cities are filled with liberal lemmings who won't be able to find their way out of town if the freeway is closed. But even if only ONE PERCENT of them have taken an interest in prepping and have meet-up points with their friends already set up, know and practice outdoor skills on a regular basis, are armed and have already scoped out 10 ways out of town (including hiking trails and off-road) and have an ultimate destination in mind -- there will be 100,000 of those folks coming out of just Los Angeles County alone, as an example. Plus, a LOT of urbanites moved there in adulthood from the country and still have viable skill sets even if they're not actively prepping. So Los Angeles county has 100K, other cities will have a similar one percent with survival strategies in place plus, of course, the brains to leave IMMEDIATELY. Unless there is an EMP, vehicles WILL work and if there was an EMP, there are horses for the taking all over the suburbs and outskirts, pre-1960s vehicles (esp. Jeeps) which will presumably still operate and on any kind of road, and ways to get gasoline. Lots of abandoned cars means lots of cars to siphon from; lots of ammunition and guns means the same thing even if the cars are not abandoned. And as someone pointed out, let's not forget an extremely well-armed ex-military, roaming around also wanting to survive after the government infrastructure collapses. They will be young and well-practiced at what they do. I'm not saying you won't survive but if you continue believing the city folks will just stay put because they have no plans, no survival skills, and no balls to leave, you're going to be very unprepared when these folks start showing up on your property armed and skilled. I will say that the northern Idaho area is inviting to a LOT of people for several reasons, including having a decent growing season and lots of available water and timber. I am not the only one who thinks this, even though I do not currently live there, but you can bet there are people in the cities who have studied survey maps of the area and figured it's a good ultimate destination. Although our homestead is in CA and is in a water-poor area, I still figure there are more urban types who've already got our own neighborhood scoped out from Google maps or visiting here, have maps printed out and will be making their way up this way right after it happens, whatever "it" turns out to be. That's what we're preparing for, anyway. To assume otherwise would be foolish. Better to over prepare than underestimate. It should also be added that in such a scenario, Youth will be king. Those with good eyesight, in exemplary physical shape, and with quick minds and reflexes will win out, as Mother Nature intends it. We're sunsetting on those skills pretty rapidly, unfortunately, but our kids aren't.

I agree also - unless we get hit with an EMP, any crisis will be slow moving and a notable (though not necessarily large) portion of the urban population will will move to more rural areas; people will be gathering what preps they can and looking for a better place to go to - enough will make it to your area to change dynamics, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse.

I think what you write has lots of merit. It reminds me of William Forstchen's book, One Second After, which is still the most frightening book I have ever read.The other point is that people intent on just taking what they need, will fight with other groups doing the same and the winners will be the worst of the worst, but in much smaller numbers. Many gangs are successful because they are terrorizing unarmed populations in cities. I lived in Gillette WY and a few mexican gang members were known to be there. They know they would be vastly outnumbered should they try something stupid. Their presence was probably to extort money from family members of victims back in Mexico and to sell drugs. They were only left alone because right now, the general population can't do anything about it. That won't be the case in a total collapse. The prior service guys are making their own plans, many of whom will bug out with other prior service people to selected locations. They have families and don't intend to take what others have, they have planned ahead. They are going to defend their retreats and maybe join up with others doing the same. It's a circle we are loosely affiliated with, so have a little information there. There are some prior service who are not combat proficient and some that are. Despite the two wars, there are less combat veterans than one thinks, and most of whom were support personnel. And don't forget the redoubt is heavily populated with "sunsetting" military that will hold their position and who have been passing on their skills to the next generation. I pray that if this should come to pass that you and your family are covered by God's grace and love. You sound like you are doing everything you can.

Those who see everything east of the Mississippi as being one large city have obviously never visited anything outside the beltways of the big cities. You may be surprised to know that the number one industry in Maryland, for example, is milk production. There are also more horses in this state per capita than in any other in the nation. Trust me, there is still a good bit of rural america on the east coast.

I agree - it isn't hard to get away from the big cities quickly; whether that will be far enough is a different questions. One problem I foresee in the Northeast and other liberal areas when things get bad is even less adherence to laws and more taking of resources to support favored people & groups; after the Boston marathon bombing we saw warrant less searches of private homes and people forced out of their homes at gunpoint - expect to see more of this in areas where the government is used to acting with impunity.

Chuck, people will be the threat, not cattle and horses. Local conditions aside, safety and survival are about population density. Of the 20 states with the highest population density, 19 are east of the Mississippi River. Of the 17 states with the lowest population density, 16 are west of the Mississippi River. Facts are such pesky things.

James Wesley Rawles (founder of SurvivalBlog.com) is one of the most respected experts on survival in America. Quoting Rawles, “I firmly believe that you will be safer west of the Missouri River (which is even further west than the Mississippi River).”

Gotta chime in....I agree with a few of the previous posters, I suspect alot of wishful thinking and underestimating on the part of some country folk (of which I am one, but as a social worker, have worked with urban social problems including gang-bangers, most of my life), agree the gangs (and displaced military) are already here, and will adapt to circumstance, but as I stated earlier, I think they will systematically spread out from the city, after the horrible 'die off' and chaos. I agree we all neeeeed to get right with God, because only HE knows for sure how this will all play out, and I agree with this bit of good advice and common sense "Hope and pray for the best, and prepare for the worst"

To add to the conversation (and agree with others, very good conversation) I have been hearing from the supposed 'prepper-pros' (which I believe there are a few) that we should all plan to ride out the first 6 months on preps alone, meaning we should not need to venture out foraging, scavaging, seeking medical help etc, and that if we can survive a year, we are likely to survive well beyond.

I admit to feeling somewhat comforted by the hope that the threat of roving mobs is not so bad, but even one overrun farm is one too many to accept or contemplate. And then if the 'golden hoard' does fizzle for most of us (and I pray it does) there is still the Gov't to contend with. By Gov't I mean UN troops, mercs and jack-booted police and all their technology and fire-power.

I am truly comforted by true stories such as Corrie Ten Boom who survived a German death camp, Derek Prince who became a refugee of war in the Middle East with a wife and 8 adopted children, (some Jewish and some Arab), these and more build my faith and courage...let's not forget than an Angel woke Joseph in the night and told him to leave for Egypt asap with his wife Mary and baby Jesus!

I live in my *bug out* retreat. Rural, hard to get to (unless you know exactly how to get here), away from interstates, away from military bases, away from any kind of target. If any horde manages to make it here....they will be exhausted!

thank you Don and Patrice for everything. Don, you have pleasantly surprised me with your deep thinking and willingness and abilkity to articulate those thoughts. I am a recent reader. I would like to ask Cal in the UP if he ever read columns that probably appeared in the FORT WORTH STAR TELEGRAM, written by a Molly Ivens. She has now passed from this world. But while she was able, she would register her disdain for the "Gah' Ment". You had a comment that reminded me of her. Never imagined I would think of her again. Enjoy every morsel!

Like many of the above posters, love the conversation and look forward to part 3!

I would also like to add, total collapse is a very low probability. An economic depression is a very high probability. Having food preps you can fall back on when money is tight or absconded with by the banks and government, is paramount. Oxygen, water, food, shelter.

If you are storing seeds for someday, please plant them. My 5 year old tomato seeds came up just fine, but my 4 year old pepper seeds did not. I have others but decided I needed to plant those old ones, which are heirloom seed saved from our gardening in the mountains of Wyoming. It takes a couple years of success to really get seed you can count on, and then you need to keep using them. Can't stress this enough.

If you want to "save" some for the future, plant to day. If you can't do that, buy some more to store yearly or every other year. I started extra tomatoes this year by accident, thinking only half would come up and every seed came up. I thought I could give the seedlings away but didn't find anyone who hadn't gone to the big box stores and bought their plants (most likely NOT heirloom). Next year I will put my extra seedlings on the town's FB garage sale page even if I do so for free, as I think it's important to SPREAD the ability for people to have food that produces seed that can be used over and over. sidetracksusie

Living in Lower Alabama, and a victim of the storm who's name shall never be spoken, the one thing I'd like to point out is that when the Gov't evacuated all those folks, it was to other large cities that had resources. It these scenarios play out, I doubt that the Gov't will be doing any evacuating, unless it is to camps they set up to keep folks contained and controlled (think internment camps of WWII).

Also, are these scenarios only for the USA, or is this a worldwide event? Do we need to be worried about folks coming down from Canada for more hospitable weather or the unsavory folks coming up from Mexico because we have better stuff here to survive on?

Thanks for this discussion. It is educational, pointed, polite, and gives much food for thought.

I agree with the above poster in that I think you may be underestimating the skills of urban/suburban dwellers......Sure, there are many who have never so much as camped one time in their lives but their are many who are very comfortable in the outdoors. And canny and resourceful enough to get far enough out of dodge to create issues for remote communities. Lots of folks here have firearms and know how to use them. Something that I have noticed in the rural area where I frequent (as the guest of a local) is that often they discount the ability of, as they are called there, "flatlanders". The reality that I have discovered is that they are no better or worse than those they discount. In the area I frequent (and own property) they is a real issue with the labor pool. Many of the locals cannot pass a simple drug test and many others are simply lazy and happy to collect whatever government handouts they can scavenge. Hopefully your area is better off in that regard. Rural and urban people have to be resourceful in different environments, but a resourceful person is a resourceful person no matter their situation, and a good work ethic is the same whether you are stacking hay bales or creating spreadsheets (although the hay bales is a lot more fun ;-) )Someone else posited that even if 1% of the golden hoard made it to the rural areas that those areas would be overwhelmed...I think 1% is overly optimistic myself. I'd expect 5% or more. Have a plan to isolate your community, block roads, bridges, etc. Love the conversation, it's one that serious, mature discussion is seldom held.