Brexit Begins

Originally Posted by Steely Glint

It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

That and increased exports spurred on in part by lower sterling. Though it was supposed to be a blow to domestic confidence that would cause domestic spending to fall that would cause an immediate post-referendum recession.

Of course that made the mistake of thinking that a nation voting a certain way would cause the voters to panic, when the voters and the consumers are the same people.

Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer

Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

You and the others (Hazir, Aimless, Loki, since I know Aimless is going to object to the less vague term) left yourselves open to this by the way you've crowed every time you see a single indicator briefly dip and every company openly wondering whether staying is a good idea, since the referendum. If you'd taken the cautious route and limited yourselves to say that while there would probably be some immediate volatility, both up and down, which would not really matter but in the long-term the economic consequences would be very poor (albeit probably not of a "crash" variety) then you'd be on solid ground. But you didn't, in your eagerness to bash the Brits for daring to just want out of your European Project you seized on every little immediate datum in the weeks after the vote. Rand has been doing the same in the opposite direction, of course, but A) you opened yourself to that by your behavior, and B) it's at least understandable for a Brit to be engaged in that kind of wishful thinking because no one wants to suffer that kind of harm. Your malicious glee to see that harm happen to others, Khend, is less understandable. And does not stir the least bit of sympathy.

Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

You and the others (Hazir, Aimless, Loki, since I know Aimless is going to object to the less vague term) left yourselves open to this by the way you've crowed every time you see a single indicator briefly dip and every company openly wondering whether staying is a good idea, since the referendum. If you'd taken the cautious route and limited yourselves to say that while there would probably be some immediate volatility, both up and down, which would not really matter but in the long-term the economic consequences would be very poor (albeit probably not of a "crash" variety) then you'd be on solid ground. But you didn't, in your eagerness to bash the Brits for daring to just want out of your European Project you seized on every little immediate datum in the weeks after the vote. Rand has been doing the same in the opposite direction, of course, but A) you opened yourself to that by your behavior, and B) it's at least understandable for a Brit to be engaged in that kind of wishful thinking because no one wants to suffer that kind of harm. Your malicious glee to see that harm happen to others, Khend, is less understandable. And does not stir the least bit of sympathy.

Moral of the story: markets are stupid in the short-term, especially when they have access to very little information. See the US stock market spike after Trump's election.

Moral of the story: markets are stupid in the short-term, especially when they have access to very little information.

They certainly can be but you didn't treat them that way. You treated every negative indicator as the omniscient invisible hand wrecking its swift and proper retribution while treating simultaneous positive indicators as idiocy. Both were normal volatility in the face of little information and an unpredictable future, not market corrections as a result of bad policy-making. Such may yet come but you opened yourself to this behavior by Rand by your previous attitude.

Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

The funny thing is I'm not even claiming that everything is guaranteed to go well or without a hitch. I've acknowledged all along there are risks and there is uncertainty ahead. I've just decided to be optimistic and believe that on the balance of probabilities that things will go well in the end. While making fun of the hyper doom mongering like claims of an immediate post result recession.

Yet that makes me the extremist? It's ridiculous.

Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer

Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

They certainly can be but you didn't treat them that way. You treated every negative indicator as the omniscient invisible hand wrecking its swift and proper retribution while treating simultaneous positive indicators as idiocy. Both were normal volatility in the face of little information and an unpredictable future, not market corrections as a result of bad policy-making. Such may yet come but you opened yourself to this behavior by Rand by your previous attitude.

I dare you LF to point out anything I said that would back up your story, besides my pointing out that the value of the Pound dropped like a ton of bricks once the out vote got the uppper hand. Other than that I have repeatedly tried to explain to Randblade, that the poison of not being inside the single market isn't about tariffs but about interrupted supply chains, of which we have none so far because there are still no impediments to shipping parts and ready products accross borders inside the EU. That would be my rant about the 10% tariff on cars being irrelevant if you can't actually build a car to sell.

Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

Well, if you have a choice to simply move to Berlin or Amsterdam for a job why would you put up with getting a work visa. Or dealing with a home office that doesn't even try to appear decent in its dealings with foreigners?

Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

Then of course I selfishly hope that at least my side is hurt the least

It's not just politeness though. Losing a lot of trade with the UK will hurt us too. Sure it will likely hurt them more than us but that ship has sailed, I prefer the best outcome from the current position. And yes, I do realise that a too 'lenient' deal could undermine the EU (which I do not want) and that contrary to the belief of some the negotiations are not just about trade.

And more practical it would cause a lot of headache at my work, we have British employees and (critical) suppliers, and it is if course a market for us but if they don't accept CE mark we're probably not going to sell anything there (being a fan of our product I'd say that's also a big loss for the UK of course).

I guess it was politeness that made me post it though but only because I felt it is polite to day at least something in topic