Casey's edge over Santorum balloons

Debate, ads help boost the Democrat's poll lead to double digits over senator.

September 27, 2006|By Josh Drobnyk Of The Morning Call

A month after polls showed Sen. Rick Santorum clawing his way back into the U.S. Senate contest, Democrat Bob Casey Jr.'s lead is back in double digits, fueled by a nationally televised debate appearance and his first sustained advertising campaign since the race began 19 months ago.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday shows Casey leading Santorum, R-Pa., by 14 points among likely voters. That's double the margin the same pollster found in mid-August. It's the third poll in less than a week showing Casey leading by at least 10 points.

Key among the findings is that only 17 percent of voters in the Quinnipiac poll said they might change their minds before Election Day, down from more than a quarter of voters -- 27 percent -- in the August poll and a third in a June poll.

Six weeks from Election Day, political observers say the electorate is beginning to pay close attention to the two candidates, aided by a nationally televised debate on Sept. 3 and by a blitz of advertising from both candidates. Santorum was alone on the airwaves all summer; Casey's ads started about a month ago.

The effect, so far, is an advantage for Casey: Santorum's recent momentum has been halted.

"As people learn more about Casey to form an opinion, they think favorably of him," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of Quinnipiac's Polling Institute at the school in Hamden, Conn.

Nearly four in 10 (39 percent) voters said they thought favorably of Casey, up eight points from a month ago. Meanwhile, less than one in five (18 percent) think of him unfavorably.

The race, though, continues to be more about Santorum, the Senate's third-ranking Republican.

More than half of Casey supporters (55 percent) said their vote for the state treasurer would come as more of a vote against Santorum, up from 51 percent a month ago and 44 percent in June.

"The race is shifting back to Santorum and a referendum on him," said Michael Young, a public affairs consultant and former Penn State University political science professor. "It is as if a lot of voters have decided that Casey is OK and are going back to their original calculation that they should dump Santorum."

Added Richards: "Santorum's biggest problem is Santorum."

The Quinnipiac poll follows a Philadelphia Inquirer poll released Sunday and a Rasmussen poll Friday that both had Casey up by 10 points.

A Keystone Poll last week showed the treasurer up by seven among registered voters and five among likely voters. Casey's lead in the Rasmussen and Keystone polls jumped slightly from August.

All of those polls showed a three-way race that included the Green Party's Carl Romanelli, whose candidacy is all but dead after a state judge this week ordered him removed from the ballot because he didn't have enough valid signatures in his nominating petitions. Romanelli now needs the state Supreme Court to overturn a ruling that upheld the threshold number of signatures for a minor-party candidate to get on the ballot at 67,070.

Romanelli's absence is expected to help Casey. Quinnipiac's new poll showed Casey leading Santorum in a three-way race by 12 points, with Romanelli supported by 4 percent of voters.

Santorum spokeswoman Virginia Davis downplayed the significance of polls and said they would not affect how the campaign communicates the senator's record to voters.

"The numbers have been all over the map," Davis said. "It just reaffirms how unreliable these polls are."

Casey spokesman Larry Smar attributed the jump in recent polls, including the latest one, to Casey's debate performance and the launch of the campaign's television advertising in late August. He also said he thinks Santorum's negative ads are backfiring.

"I think people know Rick Santorum, and they really don't like what they see," Smar said.

With 41 days until the election, observers say Santorum must find a way to boost his support above 40 percent. But no one is calling the race over.

"The Casey campaign would be very unwise to sit on this lead," Young said.

The Quinnipiac poll reached 933 likely voters between Sept. 19 and 24. It had a 3.2 percent margin of error.