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Diminishing returns to monetary policy. Monetary policy can be really strong at some moments, and very weak in others.

What regime are we in? An important question when setting policy.

Argues that 2008 was a panic and Fed actions were justified. Today, that's not so, where monetary policy is weak.

Fiscal contraction would allow for more aggressive monetary policy, but that is not true today. Today the fiscal is aggressive, and the Fed is buying the Treasuries being issued, giving a feel (though not reality yet) of debt monetization.

Fed is weakening credibility by their current actions.

Communications matter, but they are not everything. What the Fed does is more important than what the Fed says. Communications policy has limits.

Central banks are creations of the State and cannot be fully independent.

De facto independence of Fed is questionable.

Volcker could only act independently because Reagan supported him.

Failure to forecast the Great Recession lessens the legitimacy of the Fed to engage in discretionary policy.

Policy rules when they lead to good results give a central bank more room to run, more discretion.David Malpass
President, Encima Global

Argues that present monetary policy is contractionary. Hurts savers, end misallocation of capital…

The Fed is a giant, heavily leveraged SIV, borrowing short and lending long, w/only $55B of equity capital.

Fed is sucking duration out of the fixed income markets more rapidly than the Treasury is issuing.

Capital allocation is getting warped by the Fed, leading to higher prices for gold and corporate bonds, mortgage bonds, etc.

Favors corporate profits over wages… Government and large companies favored over small. M2 not growing rapidly, even though monetary base has gone up significantly. Traditional policy transmission mechanism not working.

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The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based
on EOD data.