Question for Palestinian president: Why embarrass Obama by forcing this statehood bid at the UN?

posted at 10:03 pm on September 19, 2011 by Allahpundit

The vote’s on Friday. Hillary, Tony Blair, and other diplomats have been frantically negotiating with them for the past week to get them to reconsider — but so far, Abbas won’t bend. Gosh, I wonder why.

A poll released Monday by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found 83 percent of Palestinians support the unilateral declaration, and half of respondents said they would join any demonstrations that might break out in its wake.

Elsewhere in the Arab world, the prevailing sentiment is similar.

The website NOW Lebanon carried an unsigned editorial Monday asking, “Is this the Palestinian role in the so-called Arab awakening? Perhaps. The mood in the region has changed, and the Arab street appears to have teeth for once.”…

Also Monday, Beirut’s Daily Star newspaper editorialized, “Any world leader that claims to support aborted Israeli-Palestinian negotiations while opposing the latter’s bid for statehood is either a liar or a coward. Those seeking a way out of Palestine’s application are rapidly losing the benefit of the doubt.”

The west’s latest plan is some sort of compromise that would call for new negotiations to restart within a month based on the ’67-borders-with-land-swaps scheme, plus official recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and a “lesser resolution” at the UN that wouldn’t quite call for Palestinian statehood but would grant them new international privileges. (Hillary’s meeting with Russia’s envoy tonight to see if they’ll sign on to make it a formal offer from the so-called “Quarter.”) Question: Can Abbas settle for that at this point when pretty much the entire Arab world is behind his brinksmanship? Answer: Can Abbas not settle for that given that the statehood ploy might very well backfire and end up benefiting his archenemies in Hamas?

The potential loss in American aid to the PA as a result of the bid could have serious fallout for the fledgling economy of the West Bank, and may undermine both state-building efforts and public confidence in the PA. The US, which currently contributes approximately $500 million in much-needed annual aid to the PA, objects to the statehood bid on the grounds that it subverts the negotiation process with Israel, and has threatened to withdraw or severely curtail these funds if the PA goes to the UN this month. Palestinians in the West Bank got a taste of what may be to come this summer, when a short-fall in aid from Arab countries prevented the PA from paying civil servants their full salaries…

The fact remains that Palestinian independence is dependent upon a negotiated settlement with Israel, and the UN campaign has made it even less likely that Israel will return to negotiations any time soon. When Palestinians realise that a changed UN status has delayed or even hindered progress towards independence, Fatah could be – potentially fatally – discredited, and Hamas emboldened.

Indeed, Hamas may seek to channel popular anger into acts of violence which could culminate in another civil war between Fatah and Hamas, or even a third intifada. With their Syrian patrons possibly on the verge of collapse, Hamas will have a particularly strong incentive to re-assert themselves as the party of resistance.

In fine Palestinian form, he’s now backed himself into a corner where he risks being catastrophically discredited no matter what happens. The only other world pol with as much to lose on Friday is, of course, The One, who may be forced to veto the Palestinians’ statehood bid in the Security Council unless he can get a majority of the other members to abstain. (In fact, the PA has been using a line from one of Obama’s UN speeches as support for its cause.) Doing that would singlehandedly defeat the purpose of intervening in Libya, which was designed to show young Arabs that the U.S. was now on their side after decades of propping up their oppressors. In a flash, the narrative would change from “America helps free Libya” to “America crushes Palestinian dream”; I wonder if even our new Islamist “friends” in Tripoli and Benghazi would use it as a pretext to turn on us. Abbas is betting, I assume, that even if he detonates U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East by forcing a veto, we’ll be so desperate to retain some goodwill among Arab states that we’ll keep the foreign aid flowing to the Palestinian Authority anyway. Either that or he really, honestly, truly believes that Obama won’t have the stones to veto the bid if it comes to that. Note to Abbas: Guess again.

Exit question: If this all goes to pot and we end up cutting the PA’s aid, who’ll fill the vacuum? Will it be Turkey, ever eager to exploit hatred of Israel to expand their influence in the region? Or will it be this degenerate, who’s hardly bothering to dress his anti-semitic tropes up in thinly veiled “anti-Zionist” code anymore?

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If the General Assembly believes that the Palestinians should have their own state does that same logic apply to aboriginal enclaves within UN member states like Canada, Australia, and the United States, among others.

Asked whether Netanyahu, who will address Congress in late May, should present a peace initiative of his own, 53 percent responded that he “should present a diplomatic initiative to end the conflict, which will include significant concessions,” while 42 percent said he should not.

More Israelis favor recognizing a Palestinian state than not, and a majority want Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to launch a major peace initiative, a new poll shows.

cynccook on September 19, 2011 at 10:14 PM

Reminds me of this joke I saw recently.

Two men in Tsarist Russia were being led out to a firing squad: one, a humble tailor, the other a wild anarchist. As the Tsarist officer in charge of the firing squad tried to put a blindfold on the condemned anarchist, the young militant recoiled. He would face death unblinkingly, he said bravely. Alarmed, his fellow Jew interceded: “Please, don’t make trouble!“

If the General Assembly believes that the Palestinians should have their own state does that same logic apply to aboriginal enclaves within UN member states like Canada, Australia, and the United States, among others.

Skandia Recluse on September 19, 2011 at 10:11 PM

Question for all Palestine supporters:

Why doesn’t every other breakaway region in the world (Basques, Abkhazia, Cabinda, Northern Cyprus, etc.) get this kind of international attention, financial aid, global hand-wringing, and favorable media coverage?

Oh, right, those other territorial disputes don’t have Jews “Zionists” to bash.

Two men in Tsarist Russia were being led out to a firing squad: one, a humble tailor, the other a wild anarchist. As the Tsarist officer in charge of the firing squad tried to put a blindfold on the condemned anarchist, the young militant recoiled. He would face death unblinkingly, he said bravely. Alarmed, his fellow Jew interceded: “Please, don’t make trouble!“

sharrukin on September 19, 2011 at 10:17 PM

I was having a variation of this conversation last night with my father. I feel that Israel is doomed. Its existence is under attack from multiple external forces and more alarmingly, from forces within.

If the General Assembly believes that the Palestinians should have their own state does that same logic apply to aboriginal enclaves within UN member states like Canada, Australia, and the United States, among others.

Why should the Pali’s be afraid of an empty suit? Here’s a thought, NO financial aid. So someone else steps in to prop them up – FOR HOW LONG? Want to ask Cuba how that works out?

And we can also whisper in the Pali’s ear “You screw with Israel, you get treated just like any other nation/state. They start kicking your butt, don’t ask us to step in for a ‘time out’. And other than shooting his mouth off, don’t look to DinnerJacket to save your sorry asses.”

Abbas figures he can make hay for years out of being rebuffed at this juncture. Talk about a gift that will keep on giving. A grievance that cannot be assuaged. A bottomless well of High Moral Victimhood.

Of course he can’t back down from this. It’s his bargaining leverage. He’s not going to give it up at all, if he can help it.

This is such a no-brainer… The only time the bad guys can achieve AND get away with their most evil plans is during a Democratic Party president in the White House and a weak or non-existent Republican Party majority in the Congress. The bad guys will never have a more opportune moment to achieve their evil deeds than this almost-closed window the Obama presidency offers.

The first WTC attack was carried out soon after Bill Clinton took office, because the terrorists were confident that PoTUS wouldn’t retaliate in a substantial manner. The 9-11 attacks took place immediately following the Clinton administration due to the irrefutable FACT that PoTUS had weakened the US military and the correct assumption that GWB would reverse that trend. Ever since the Reagan administration replaced Carter’s, the worst and lowest barbarians have prayed to Allah for another Carter-like PoTUS… They’ve gotten their wish, with cherries on top.

Too bad we can’t turn the First Lady loose on them as they try to enjoy the sweets her husband gave them, on a silver platter.

Arafat was willing to “embarrass” Clinton and Barak by starting a full scale war against Israel, yet the Palestinians emerged with a quasi-state in Gaza and plenty of funding for the West Bank. There has been little recent disincentive for Palestinians to be even violently uncooperative with either the US or Israel; there is, however, a very real incentive for Abbas, who owes his insurrectionary standing to his long association with Arafat, to maintain it, which he cannot do as a passive foil for Hamas. The notion, cleverly encapsulated by Abba Eban, that perennial Palestinian intransigence is a “missed opportunity,” is nonetheless sentimental Westernizing. Palestinians have failed by Israeli or Western European or American standards, but by Arab standards they haven’t done so badly. Certainly not badly enough.

Well if a state is declared and they keep rocketing Israel, Israel then has every right to wipe them out under a legal declaration of war. Go in, find and execute the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah etc. much like we did with Germany and Japan in 1945. Outlaw Islam and all things muslim as the Nazi party was outlawed and in a generation or two you’ll have folks who are decent enough to live next to, which us not the case now.

Obama has already irrevocably set the stage for his own embarrassment.

Unqualified for any executive position, Obama has made his own position worse by refusing to learn from anybody with more savvy and experience. He has no broad strategy for conduct of foreign affairs: thus we are adrift everywhere, our enemies are emboldened, and our former allies feel that they cannot count on us.

Add to this the fact that Obama has made the US weaker in every way (it does not matter whether this was purposeful or not), and the stage is set for continued international disasters as long as Obama is around.

The Palestinians are betting Obama won’t veto it. With advisers like Susan Rice and Samantha Power, the private counsel he’ll be getting will certainly be anti-Israel.

Israel’s best hope may have been NY-9 and the signs of a revolt among Jewish voters. Obama probably cannot win without their support, and certainly cannot if they flip voting numbers and donations against him for perceived ill treatment. So the political handlers will advise him to veto if needed.

OTOH, Obama is in his element railing against the Evil Rich, and working the Jews into that wouldn’t cause him to lose any sleep, even if it cost votes. It could help him redeem himself to Jeremiah Wright, besides.

Obama, Susan Rice, and Samantha Power are completely responsible for this debacle. All of their pandering to the Palestinians, all of their maneuvering based on their idiotic notions about the dynamics of Middle Eastern politics has been revealed for the intellectually bankrupt leftist ideological nonsense it is.

Obama has his chance here but I think he wants to continue to “transform” the U.S. more than he wants to hurt Israel. Biggest bang for his buck so to speak. If he thought re-election was very unlikely, he wouldn’t veto the resolution. I think he has already decided he wants to get re-elected though.

In a flash, the narrative would change from “America helps free Libya” to “America crushes Palestinian dream”; I wonder if even our new Islamist “friends” in Tripoli and Benghazi would use it as a pretext to turn on us.

Believe it or not, they are not the Borg. The idea that everyone in Libya who rose up against that American killing dictator is an Islamist is just as ridiculous as Ron Paul’s claim that the only reason they hate us is that we are over there. Both claims are way too simplistic. That is how we got into this position..over simplifying the problem.

This is no embarrassment for Obama – this is victory.
He can now say he solved the Palestinian problem and appeased all his Muslim friends.

albill on September 20, 2011 at 6:20 AM

The Palestinian/Israeli conflict has ended up being an embarrassment for every American president who has tried to intervene and solve it. We have watched this go on for decades.

I was having a variation of this conversation last night with my father. I feel that Israel is doomed. Its existence is under attack from multiple external forces and more alarmingly, from forces within.

In the commies quest for peace and friendship with Arab nations that hate us….he’s succeeded!!! He’s made them hate us even more! Good job Obooba!

Also..why in the hell are we giving money to nations who use terrorism, and hate us? Do they like us, or see us as morons for giving them OUR money? Screw em. Til they earn it, they don’t deserve it, and even then…why should we? Let them stand or fail on their own.

Why doesn’t every other breakaway region in the world (Basques, Abkhazia, Cabinda, Northern Cyprus, etc.) get this kind of international attention, financial aid, global hand-wringing, and favorable media coverage?
Oh, right, those other territorial disputes don’t have Jews “Zionists” to bash.
Good Solid B-Plus on September 19, 2011 at 10:18 PM

I wonder…
Going back to the stuff that the MSM never vetted, we (at HA) know a few things, such as Obama’s taped appearance at a pro Palestinian banquet–that the LA Times has never released… His ties to that kooky Salahi family that “crashed his party”, the fact he has ties to a “sheik” getting him into Harvard (obscure YouTube clip from a NY cable show, I don’t know if it is still there), the “small donations” coming in from Gaza and/or the West Bank, the billion dollars in aid back to them, the fact that Obama spoke about Israel going back to the 1967 borders (before his epic spanking from Bibi)… He is obviously a strong Palestinian supporter and he loves the UN, why would he want to veto Abbas? I won’t believe it til I see it. And thinking about the way Bibi smacked him around, I wonder if he sees this as some kind of narcissistic revenge kind of thing. Like I said, I’ll believe it when I see it.