Iran will deploy 4,000 Revolutionary Guards to Syria to bolster Damascus against a mostly Sunni-led insurgency, media reported. Meanwhile, US F-16s and Patriots will stay in Jordan – speculatively, to help establish a no-fly zone to aid Syrian rebels.

The deployment of the first several-thousand strong military
contingent was reported by The Independent on Sunday who quoted
Iranian sources tied to the state’s security apparatus. The
sources said the move signals Iran’s intention to drastically
step up its efforts to preserve the government of President
Bashar Assad.

The Islamic Republic’s heightened military commitment could
reportedly extend to the opening up of a new “Syrian” front on
the Golan Heights against Israel.

Golan Heights have recently become a source of new instability
with increasing cross-border fire and Austria withdrawing its
peacekeepers from the buffer area after a checking point became the spot of military dispute
between and Assad's and opposition's forces.

This stirred concern in the UN with Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
warning the fragile state of no-war between Tel-Aviv and Damascus
is at risk.

“The ongoing military activities in the [Golan] area of
separation continue to have the potential to escalate tensions
between Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic and to jeopardize the
cease-fire between the two countries,” Ban Ki-moon said in a
June 13 statement.

Journalists have frequently asked Assad whether he plans to open a resistance
front at Golans. The option discussion was brought back to the
table after every air strike on the Syrian territory pinned on
Israel. Tel-Aviv always stopped short of confirming the strikes
but hinted that it would do “whatever it takes” to stop arms
supplies to Lebanon’s Hezbollah even if convoys are found going
through Syria.

The strikes resonated across the world – and back in February
Saeed Jalili, head of Iran’s National Security Council, warned Israel would “regret” them.

…vs. US troops in Jordan?

Reports of Iran’s decision to get directly involved in the Syrian
conflict come just days after Israel’s ally, the US, chose to
reverse its policy of not providing lethal aid to rebel fighters.
The argument the Obama Administration used was that Damascus had
crossed a red line by deploying chemical weapons against
opposition forces on four separate occasions.

Washington’s policy shift has quickly materialized on multiple
fronts, some of them also in the press.

On Saturday, the Pentagon announced a detachment of F-16s and US
Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems dispatched to Jordan for
the ongoing joint Eager Lion military exercise will remain in the
country once the training drills conclude.

The same day, The Washington Post reported that clandestine bases
in Jordan and Turkey would serve as conduits for arms
being delivered to the rebel fighters.

US military support will thus far be limited to light arms and
other munitions, although Washington’s shifting calculus has
potentially given a green light to regional Sunni allies to
provide anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to the Assad
opposition.

Just one day before the Pentagon announced its intention to leave
Patriot missiles and F-16s in Jordan, senior Western diplomats in
Turkey announced Washington was mulling the establishment of a
no-fly zone, “possibly near the Jordanian border."

Syria vortex: Saudi Arabia, Al-Nusra, Hezbollah

The US, Israel and Iran are not the only actors to have
“activated” recently.

On Sunday, the German daily Der Spiegel, citing the German
foreign intelligence service, said Saudi Arabia is looking to
provide European-made Mistral-class MANPADS – man-portable
air-defense systems – to the Syrian opposition.

Notably, on Tuesday, Saudi Arabia condemned the role of another
party to the conflict – Hezbollah – announcing that measures
would be taken against those loyal to the group who lived in Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) states.

Hezbollah, the Shia Islamist militant group based out of Lebanon,
played an integral part in the recapture of the strategic city of
Qusayr last week. Damascus announced its intentions to use the
Qusayr victory as a stepping stone to retaking large swaths of
the northern city of Aleppo and surrounding provinces.

Some 2,000 of Hezbollah’s 65,000 strong force has reportedly been
operating in the city since early June. Shortly after these
reports emerged, the New York Times rolled out an article saying
Israel accelerated planning for a “shock and awe”
campaign to wipe out Hezbollah forces out of Syria.

Despite Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of Hezbollah’s “blatant
interference” in the Syrian conflict, a report issued by
Intelligence Online in January said that Saudi Arabia was
directly responsible for the radical al-Nusra Front’s very
existence and operational superiority within the country.

"Thanks to funding from the General Intelligence Department
and support from the Saudi Intelligence in Lebanon, al-Nusra was
able to swiftly arm its forces, and make the Syrian regime suffer
painful blows through its expertise in Iraqi bombings," it
continued.

The Al-Nusra Front, with its alleged Saudi connections, is
incidentally the Syrian branch of the Islamic State of Iraq,
which aims to establish a caliphate in the Sunni dominated
regions of Iraq. This brings a strong sectarian smell to the
two-year conflict and lifts far above local “anti-government”
sentiments.

The increased effectiveness of pro-Assad forces has been met with
frustration by prominent Sunni clerics. Sheikh Yusuf Qaradawi, a
prominent Egyptian theologian, called on Sunnis in the region to
join the battle against Damascus, asking: “How could 100m Shia
[worldwide] defeat 1.7bn [Sunni]?”

With the United States, its Sunni allies in the region and Israel
all preparing to step up involvement in the Syrian conflict,
Iran’s commitment to defend the Assad government is likely just
as motivated by self-preservation as Shiite solidarity.