Google robots, a bearish Apple chart and ill-fated, buy-rated stocks

Flickr/quixado

J.P. Morgan
/quotes/zigman/272085/delayed/quotes/nls/jpmJPM, billion-dollar fines aside, grabbed headlines last week with another bold call that put Dimon’s bunch in the driver’s seat of the Wall Street bull bus. Financial news websites opted for the big font. Why? Because a 20% pop on the S&P in 2014 sounds sexy, considering how far we’ve come in 2013. People want it to be true. It’s clickable stuff.

But, unless you use the forecasts as contrarian indicators, be prepared to be soon parted from your money. Morgan Housel of The Motley Fool put out some compelling evidence of just how the wide the divide is between the pros and reality.

We’ve gone over this before in this blog, but these trends are always worth another look. This is the end of the year, after all. A time for reflection. And, if you’ve aligned your portfolio with analyst ratings for some reason, plenty of angst.

“Markets will always assume tomorrow will look just like yesterday, moving as a herd toward what is often the wrong conclusion. The only way to protect yourself from this group-think is to train your brain to be allergic to popular opinions,” Housel said.

The economy:The Empire state index of manufacturing in the New York area turned positive in December, but by a smaller amount than expected, while third-quarter productivity was revised up to 3% from an original 1.9%.

When bankers make a lot of money, the backlash is as entertaining as it is swift. Well, London bankers are looking for a 44% increase in their bonuses. Cue the uproar.

The chart of the day: RyKnow drew the wrath of the Apple
/quotes/zigman/68270/delayed/quotes/nls/aaplAAPL faithful on StockTwits when he posted what he sees as a bearish pattern. “An unpopular view is that Apple is entering/nearing its ‘return to normal’ stage of its cycle.” Unpopular indeed. As with most things Apple, info is either great for the stock or totally bogus.

RyKnow

Meanwhile, here’s a rare public speech from CEO Tim Cook, who talked about growing up with a front-row seat on discrimination. He was at the U.N. to accept a lifetime achievement award from his alma mater Auburn. He even made a quip about the football team’s dramatic win over Alabama.

The call of the day: You’re holding too much cash. It’s that simple, according to Barry Ritholtz, who warns of the financial perils of being too skittish to do anything but stuff the mattress. “Cash, in modest increments, has a role in any portfolio. But unless you are Warren Buffett, you should limit it to 2% or 3%,” he wrote. “Otherwise, you are likely to miss the next bull market. Too many people have already missed this one.”

Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise on Twitter

Copyright 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of
this material are governed by our
Subscriber Agreement
and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones
Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit