Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Pundits gone wild

The great analyzers are offering tales of caution for Barack Obama this morning, with predictions that Republican victories against a wildly unpopular Democrat in New Jersey and by a conservative acolyte in Virginia may be early signs of a tsunami ready to sweep out Democrats a year from now.

The somewhat cautionary analyses will be twisted by the Official Mouthpiece of the Republican Party (Fox News to the rest of us) as a repudiation of "The One" and a reaffirmation that the GOP alone has what it takes to lead us out of the wilderness (conveniently forgetting who led us there.)

But the Times at least prominently notes the bucket of cold water that may turn the "your mileage may vary" analysis into a a pile of worthless words.

The GOP lost an upstate New York House seat that had been within the party for more than 100 years because the True Believers managed to force out a conservative who they decreed to be lacking in proper bonafides. The Conservative Party challenger fell and with it another GOP House seat.

Saul Anuzis, a former Michigan Republican Party chairman, seems to be on to something.

"Conservatives can win when they emphasize the right things and don’t allow their message to get co-opted. The Democrats and some of their friends in the media attempt to paint all conservatives as fire-breathing cavemen."

Of course, this is the same guy who labeled Obama as economic fascist, so take it with a grain of salt.

The fire-breathing cavemen and igloo women who stir up the GOP base are likely to be emboldened by the results in New Jersey and Virginia and gloss over the reality of New York-23. If it happens, that will be the ultimate lesson of the 2009 elections.