‘Sugar rush’ well timed to win votes

Pollsters and electoral experts do not expect Labor’s budget to do anything for its near-term popularity but say the “sugar rush" after cash payments are made to 1.5 million lower-income families could trigger a temporary boost for the flailing government.

“This budget is so obviously out there to buy votes and so lacking in any kind of economic coherence," Queensland pollster and ex-Labor senator John Black said.

Voters would be responsive to “a bit of cash being sloshed around", but he thought any bounce was unlikely to occur until the family payments, including the $520 clean energy advance and SchoolKids bonus, were mailed out next year in time for the federal election.

More immediately, there would be a backlash from wealthier families in middle class seats towards the inner cities “where Labor will get clobbered", and from voters over 50 years of age “who would need their head read before they voted Labor after this budget", Mr Black said. “It will be the slightly better paid Greens voters where Labor is going to have real problems with this budget because they are starting to means-test out Green primary voters."

Roy Morgan Research executive chairman
Gary Morgan
said he would be surprised if there was a big change in polling support for the Gillard government soon.

He did not rule out a swing to Labor but said the real concern was the negative perception of politicians in the public domain.

“
Wayne Swan
[is] talking about record unemployment when we all know it’s nonsense because the unemployment questions are phoney. It gives them no credibility."