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Last night my roommate told of the similarities between being in an American bar on an autumn Sunday afternoon and being in a Canadian bar for Hockey Night. Football has long overtaken baseball as the most popular sport in the United States, in a general sense1, and imagining Canada without hockey is like imagining 2014 without the Internet–life would be terrible without it.

Which is more impressive: Canada’s love for hockey, or America’s love for football?

Money

The most recent NHL deal for Canadian broadcast rights comes from Rogers Communications, which will pay $4.765 billion (U.S. dollars) over 12 years beginning with the 2014-2015 season.2 The most recent NFL deal with networks Fox, CBS, and NBC for American broadcast totals $27.9 billion over nine years, beginning in 2014.3 The Canadian-broadcast NHL deal averages $0.397 billion a season, while the American-broadcast NFL deal averages $3.1 billion a season. With 1,230 NHL regular season games and approximately 78 playoff games4, and 267 NFL regular season and playoff games, that averages to $303,582 per Canadian-broadcast NHL game and $11,610,487 per American-broadcast NFL game.

These figures are not perfectly accurate; there is inflation to consider, and the potential growth/decline of the Canadian/American dollar, as the Canadian deal is actually in Canadian dollars ($5.232 billion of them). But the contracts begin in the same year and are for similar lengths of time, and honestly no one knows too much about the potential currency changes a decade from now. Certainly, there is a lot more money in the NFL. However…

It’s All Relative

The 2010 U.S. census recorded 308,745,906 people living in the United States.5 The 2011 Canadian census recorded 33,476,688 people living in Canada.6 With only one year of separation, there is no need to get too technical. Canada’s population is about 11 percent of the United States’ population. Though more precise actual Canadian viewership ratings are hard to find, raw numbers are available.

Game seven of the 2011 Stanley Cup Finals, between the Boston Bruins and the Vancouver Canucks, is the most watched NHL game in Canadian history, with 8.96 million Canadians tuning in.7 Super Bowl XLVI, between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants in 2012, was at the time the most watched NFL game in American history with 111.3 million American viewers.8 In 2011, 26.8 percent of Canada watched the effective NHL championship game; in 2012, 36 percent of the United States watched the Super Bowl. Point to the NFL.

Is football more popular in America than hockey in Canada? There are two other things to consider.

The 32 NFL teams all reside in the United States; the Buffalo Bills do play a game in Toronto every season, and there are a couple of games in London every year, but at the moment it is still a wholly American league. Of the 30 teams in the NHL, 23 reside in the states, leaving Canada with the other seven. Loving hockey as they do, and with Canadian players spread throughout the league, Canadians presumably still have some interest in the American teams, but it is not the same.

Quant Hockey has broken down the NHL’s various player nationalities for many years. Their data reveals that since the mid 1990s, the NHL has been a little more than 50 percent Canadian. Call it 50 percent, as the NFL is not 100% full of American players. In 2010, the most-watched, American-teams-only Stanley Cup Finals game drew 4.077 million Canadian viewers9, roughly 12% of the country. Yet doubling that to adjust for the significant non-Canadian portion of the league still only yields 24%, while the Super Bowl regularly attracts a third of the United States or more.

Those few Stanley Cup Finals games and Super Bowls are just that: few. Nonetheless it would hardly be surprising to discover that more Americans watch television, per capita or not, and certainly NFL games attract bigger crowds. But in addition to the context of population, there is a context of economy.

Those broadcast deals net the NHL $0.397 billion each year and the NFL $3.1 billion each year, from the Canadian and American television markets, respectively. In 2012, Canada’s gross domestic product totaled $1.821 trillion (U.S. dollars); America’s totaled $15.68 trillion. More or less, Canada’s NHL deal shakes out to 0.02 percent of its economy, which hardly seems like much. But the United States’ NFL deal amounts to 0.008 percent of the American economy. The NHL accounts for more of Canada’s economic pie than the NFL does of America’s, but hey–being American and all–our pie is much, much bigger (as, incidentally, are NFL players).

Bottom Line

The NFL’s popularity in the United States is more impressive than the NHL’s in Canada. The NFL’s numbers are absolutely superior, relatively comparable, and the NFL also competes with several other professional sports. Nonetheless, Canada’s love of hockey is probably more impressive, or at least more instinctual, than America’s passion for football. Call it a draw? But then, if a draw it is, Canada certainly takes it in overtime; the NFL’s post-regulation rules are ridiculous.

The NFL draws higher attendance per game, and while there are only 16 in a team’s season, they still rake in the most in broadcast rights, the Super Bowl is the most watched sporting event, etc. ↩

Click here for source. Super Bowl XLVI’s viewership record withstood the Blackout Bowl featuring San Francisco and Baltimore in 2013 but was just slightly bested by Seattle and Denver this year. See an earlier post which details why that is not actually impressive, as the American television audience grows every year. ↩

Just a quick aside: Verlander’s current profile-description-about-me thing on Twitter reads: “My house smells of rich mahagony and I have many leather bound books! -Anchorman”. Hold on, I have to go follow Justin Verlander on Twitter. Back. Wait, I have to tell Justin Verlander that he’s misspelling mahogany.

It’s David Ortiz, at home in the playoffs, hitting a game-tying grand slam off Tigers’ closer Joaquin Benoit with two outs in the eighth inning. What if after circling the bases, Ortiz had screamed this into the cameras:

I’M THE BEST HITTER IN THE GAME! WHEN YOU TRY ME WITH A SORRY PITCHER LIKE BENOIT, THAT’S THE RESULT YOU GON’ GET! DON’T YOU EVER TALK ABOUT ME! DON’T YOU OPEN YOUR MOUTH ABOUT THE BEST!

Questions to consider: Would baseball be better or worse? How quickly would Ortiz be forced to apologize (if at all)? Would people like to see him suspended? Would people be concerned he was taking performance enhancing drugs that also affected his behavior? (And wouldn’t people find this outburst just f#!%ing bizarre?)

Setting aside those questions, one thing is clear: if Ortiz had said that, Verlander, and presumably other Tigers pitchers, would throw 95+ mile-per-hour fastballs at Ortiz’s head.2 Baseball has a built-in corrective mechanism for such antics. There is a league office to fine players, the risk of ejection, and rarely a beaning will start a full-scale brawl, but players learn to keep their showboating to a minimum, lest they spend the rest of their at bats fearfully ducking for cover.

This got me thinking about other sports. As a fan, my general perception is that the NFL and NBA have more rude, childish behavior than the NHL and MLB. Perhaps this has more to do with the physical consequences–both their magnitude and their ease of execution–players can inflict on one another.

Such physical dangers are relative to the baseline for the sport. Football is quite physical already. The little catfights NFL players get into, while perhaps drawing a 15 yard penalty, do not pose any additional pains. Basketball has a lot of contact, although less forceful. Shoving matches and the occasional punch are more or less on par with the physicality in the game itself.

Baseball and hockey are different. In MLB, physical contact is very rare, while pitchers can easily brush off opponent hitters. Hockey has a lot of hitting, though it’s often more fluid than in other sports. A hockey player is a scarred player, but longer-term tears and breaks are less common.

Like baseball, hockey has a built-in mechanism for players who show off, taunt, and are generally just dicks. Enforcers and fighting are ingrained in hockey, and the two-minute penalties that come with them are frequently off-setting. NHL fighting penalties are usually not worse than any other penalty, and the players who receive them are usually less skilled. The NHL and MLB have milder deterrents for hitting back.

Is there actually less needless, immature, look-at-me, plain obnoxious behavior in MLB and the NHL than in the NFL and NBA? It’s hard to say. An exhaustive study would take a lot of thought and work. Googling a few things and drawing sketchy conclusions, however, is not too hard.

The table below shows the number of Google hits for some particular search terms, as of earlier this afternoon, January 23rd, 2013. The search terms are on the left; for example, the NFL search terms were “nfl”, “nfl football”, “nfl playoffs”, “nfl taunting”, “nfl taunts”, “nfl trash talk”, and “nfl insults”.

Trash Talk by Sport, Google Hits, 1/23/2014

[league] + “…”

NFL

NBA

NHL

MLB

[league only]

118,000,000

186,000,000

52,300,000

105,000,000

[league + sport]

553,000,000

360,000,000

189,000,000

136,000,000

Playoffs

126,000,000

98,000,000

61,400,000

87,700,000

~([league + sport] – Playoffs)~

427,000,000

262,000,000

127,600,000

48,300,000

Taunting

515,000

241,000

147,000

132,000

Taunts

533,000

295,000

162,000

189,000

Trash Talk

13,800,000

11,600,000

956,000

1,050,000

Insults

2,710,000

1,900,000

392,000

296,000

Neat-O! While “taunting” and “taunts” did not yield much difference, there are many times as many hits for “trash talk” and “insults” in the NFL and NBA than in the NHL and MLB. Might that be conflated by the fact that some leagues are more or less popular than others? That is why I have included baseline numbers for each league. How about the fact that MLB is in the off-season currently, while the NBA and NHL are in full swing, and the NFL’s popularity is likely peaking as Super Bowl XLVIII nears?

Those are valid concerns, also this is not a scientific study in any way. To maybe-sorta-kinda get an idea, here are the Google hits for each sport’s “trash talk”, as a percentage of the playoffs-adjusted number of Google hits for [league + sport].3

Trash Talk by Sport, Google Hits Percentage, 1/23/2014

[league] + “…”

NFL

NBA

NHL

MLB

Trash Talk

3.23%

4.43%

0.75%

2.17%

There you have it! Football and basketball have to put up with more of this nonsense than hockey and baseball because it is easier for hockey and baseball players to punch back, with more bite, and fewer punishments from their leagues’ offices. From an individual (or microeconomic) perspective, running your mouth is more costly in the NHL and MLB than in the NFL and NBA.

As much as I might respect Sherman as a football player, and loath his (un)professional conduct, I have got to hand it to the Stanford communications major. He is really good at what he does. In the span of just a few hours he gave us this:

And this:

The adage “If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all,” is there, if you want it. But in this case, I choose another old favorite: hate the game, not the player.

If not immediately, in the midst of a tight playoff game, then later in the series during a game that was in hand, or certainly in a game this coming season. ↩

Ie, the number of hits for “nfl football” minus the number of hits for “nfl playoffs”. Why this number? It scales better than other figures to the number of hits for “trash talk” and “insults” across all four sports, and more importantly, WHY NOT? ↩

There were some technical difficulties today, presumably all around the world and definitely in my own laptop. Specifically, said difficulties concerned my ASUS “SmartGesture_Win8_64_VER225” touchpad driver, or whatever. This was not the first time. I was Not in the mood. Technology ultimately prevailed, but has left me exhausted and weak, physically and emotionally, much like yesterday’s NFC Championship game.

So this is not a post, but a repost, indeed a reposting. The following have been the most popular articles on Crossroads:

Around midnight of December 18th, I sat back with a fairly comprehensive Bleacher Report article (as they go), my laptop, a bottle of whiskey, a recliner chair, a big screen TV, and a YouTube to investigate what makes the “All Time Classic Plays” just so. Eight hours later, I had many thoughts, maybe even answers.

The results of this positively unscientific and whimsical process couldn’t be clearer: it’s a play’s impact on a game’s outcome, and how unusually the players pull it off, that are most likely to set a play apart.

Forget sports (just for a second, don’t worry) and think about a coin flip. Say it’s a fair coin, and you flip heads two times in a row. Does the coin have momentum? Is the coin more likely to come up heads on the next flip? You’re smart, you know the answer is no.

Who got off easy? Argentina, no question. In addition to being in their element in South America (theoretically), they drew a Bosnia-Herzegovina team playing in its first tournament as its own nation (being formerly part of Yugoslavia), ranked 21st, Nigeria, ranked 36th, and Iran, ranked 45th.

The average NFL salary is $2.016 million ($2,015,942), with a median of $0.753 million ($753,229). The average fine ($14,543) is 0.72% of the average salary, and 1.93% of the median salary. For half of all players, the average fine is a harsher punishment than Tomlin’s 1.74% loss.

Flowers and Talib, 85th and 66th respectively among all cornerbacks, both make the cut with impressive negative grades. Anyone want to bet how many times announcers mention their Pro Bowl inclusion tomorrow in a context affirming their, uh, “quality” play this season?

Hi there! This is Part Two of a Two-Part Confessions of an Economic Sportsfan feature: I Just Spent 8 Hours, 1/4 of a Bottle of Whiskey, and 5,000 Words On the Greatest Sports Plays of All Time. (Click here for Part One.) Around midnight of December 18th, I sat back with a fairly comprehensive Bleacher Report article (as they go), my laptop, a bottle of whiskey, a recliner chair, a big screen TV, and a YouTube to investigate what makes the “All Time Classic Plays” just so. Eight hours later, I had many thoughts, maybe even answers!1 In Part Two I continue analyzing the remaining 25 most amazing plays in that article, before tallying up the results to determine which factors are most likely to make a play one we’ll remember forever.

This is freakin’ awesome. A great play, also I’m totally kindred spirits with whoever is calling this game, whatever it is. Apparently a college affair between, at-best, middling teams. But listen to the announcer go! All the important details, including what a miraculous comeback this is completing. Oh yeah. Adding the quality of the play-by-play call to the list of factors I should have included.

I’ve seen this before: Yes. (Oh yes. Live I think. The ball on the helmet/neck area brings it all back.)

I totally remember seeing this. Very nostalgic. I was in the fourth grade, and I definitely talked about it at school that week with a new girl in our class, who loved football and Brett Favre, and had moved to my town from Kansas. Super nostalgic. Also pretty crazy even as crazy catches go.

Oh my goodness, this is only good for #22? I still don’t know what’s more amazing, that Tyree caught it or that Manning didn’t get sacked. Also against Brady and quite possibly the best football team in history? IN THE SUPER BOWL? Kind of a bummer it was in Phoenix. Also I didn’t actually see this one live; with the Pats leading in the second half, I went with my host family in Mascota, Jalisco, Mexico out on the town. I heard they lost a couple of hours later. The thing is, normally I re-watch most 49er games, but I haven’t been able to bring myself to see the 2011 (season) NFC Championship game or last year’s Super Bowl since they happened. I can’t even imagine how agonizing this play is for Pats fans. I’m guessing like at least 10-50 times as bad as Kyle Williams fumbling those punts.

I can only assume The Catch (in baseball, though oddly sort of almost San Francisco, coming in one of the final years of the Polo Grounds) from Willie Mays is coming up? Because it’s pretty similar, AND he had to hop back up and make a throw to the plate?

It took me a couple takes to figure out what’s wrong with this video. At first I kept thinking what made it so unusual is that Nilsson puts the ball to the wrong side of the wall, the side where the goalkeeper already is. For instance, if you go back and watch Roberto Carlos’ free kick (which, to be fair, is the perfect free kick), you’ll notice the goalkeeper is to Carlos’ left of the wall, and he puts the ball around (his) right side. But it’s not Nilsson’s fault; the wall isn’t lined up on the near post, or any post, it’s just in the middle of the goal. That’s super dumb and inexcusable. The whole point of the wall is to make the goal smaller, not to split the goal into pieces far away from each other that the keeper must still protect. Dunno what PSV was doing.

Another factor I maybe should have mentioned: controversy. The announcers pick up on the forward lateral, live, up in the booth. They didn’t even need a replay. And while I may have missed one or two, I think this is only the fourth play on the list so far to have a true name, after the Bluegrass Miracle, Miracle at the New Meadowlands, and the 0.4 Shot, which curiously all ranked next to each other at 49-47, respectively.2 Hm.

WOW!!! Wow wow wow wow wow. Wow. Definitely worth a watch. The ole’ chuck-it-towards-the-hoop-there’s-no-time-left maneuver is hardly original, but from underneath your own basket, off a rebound, with 0.6 (!!!) seconds left? No way. Just no. Unbelievable. Someone tell me this YouTube video is a hoax. Oh, also apparently that was in overtime. The whole Guilford college thing is all that’s bringing this down. Oh also his name is Jim Snipes. Classic.

Can you imagine if we had the Internet, and memes, and hashtags in the 1970s (Thinking…) DON’T. Can you imagine if Earl Campbell was 25 years old and ripped off that play today? Crazy. The best part is how nonchalantly he jogs off the field to get a new jersey (and comes back in one play later). What a B0$$.

I’ve seen this before: Uh, yeah, my dad might have made me watch it twenty or a hundred times or so (quite justifiably).

There it is! Say Hey! Remember when I said “The Catch” (baseball edition) is everything and more than that silly Jim Edmonds’ wimp-#^@ diving catch is? See how right I was? Running back, looking over his head for several yards. Game One of the WORLD SERIES. Leaping back up afterwards to throw home and keep those base runners from scoring. WILLIE MAYS. Magical.3

I’ve seen this before: Yes. (My father and I completely lost it when this happened. What was he doing? How did he know?)

I broke my rules and looked up some things about this play. Apparently Jeter had been practicing it all season long at the suggestion of Yankee bench coach Don Zimmer, after a throw got away in a similar fashion in spring training. You know, because he’s Derek Jeter and he needs to be ready FOR EVERYTHING. Just in case. Good call, Derek. Good freakin’ call.

Okay, so Bleacher Report’s Austin Schindel cheated by putting two plays in one, but it doesn’t matter in the slightest because both plays would receive the same score independent of one another because they are both ludicrous and probably tie for the second best play in college football ever, and I love them more than my family. (Well, almost as much.) And if you even try to refute that Boise State turned it up to 11 on those plays, I will punch you in the solar plexus. 4th&18? Fine. A magical play that scores a touchdown? Sure. OFF A HOOK AND LADDER? You bet. ON NATIONAL TV AGAINST A NATIONAL POWERHOUSE NO ONE THOUGHT YOU DESERVED TO PLAY IN THE FIRST PLACE? Why not? That’s play one. Then, maybe ten minutes later in overtime, ANOTHER absurd trick play, even more ridiculous than the last? Okay… ON A 2 PT CONVERSION ATTEMPT when the conventional wisdom says you kick the extra point and keep playing? Every college football game I have watched since then, I’ve only watched on account of my hope that something even half as fantastic will happen again. Oh yeah, also the on-field marriage proposal right at the end… well done Ian Johnson. And well done Boise State. Frickin’ A.

Yeah… a bicycle kick is incredible. Scoring one, more so. Off a high-speed cross, more so. To win the game in the final minutes, more so. Against your team’s big rival, more so. In the English Premiere League… I could go on.

As a lifelong fan of the San Francisco 49ers, and a friend of a Saints fan with whom I was watching the game, I must say that this is a positively glorious run by Marshawn Lynch. We remember how we laughed our #%#es off that the 7-9 Seahawks were in the playoffs at all, let alone hosting the defending Super Bowl champion Saints in the first round. After playing well the whole way, the Seahawks saw the Saints get within a touchdown. They had to answer. And Lynch did, about seven or eight times, throwing a defender down to the ground in the process. And I know Seahawks fans are down on me after I seemingly took a big crap on their stadium yesterday, but I love how the noise builds over the course of the 67 yards. The Marshawn Lynch train is coming through town and it’s not stopping for nobody, no matter how many Saints march into that number. I just watched it like three times, it’s so great. I listened to it with my eyes closed. The announcers point out right at the beginning that the stadium has grown quiet. It’s perfect.

It’s all in the improvisation. He goes for the up-against-the-wall catch, and upon failing immediately finds the ball and trebuchets that %#^$er in there to third from the track in right, without a hop. Ichiro’s may have been more impressive in that he nailed a speedier runner, but still, a pretty darn good throw.

We’ve nearly reached the end of Bleacher Report’s 50 Most Amazing Plays of All Time (published back in February, 2012), down to the number one play. Of the 49 so far, I’ve taken a sip of whiskey for the 30 I had not seen before. I’m feeling in touch with the list, and my sportsfan self, and I’m betting a shot that the number one play is The Play, the Cal-Stanford “THE BAND IS ON THE FIELD!” Play. If I’m right, I win by saving whiskey for later; if I’m wrong, I win by taking a shot of whiskey and going to bed. And here we go!

AAAAUUUGGGHHH OF COURSE! The cover picture was Tiger! No golf the whole way through, and then this! ALSO HOW DOES THE CAL-STANFORD PLAY NOT GET ON THIS LIST? THE SAINTS’ LATERAL PLAY GETS ON THE LIST FOR A MISSED EXTRA POINT, BUT THE CAL-STANFORD PLAY, COMPLETE WITH PERCUSSION AND WIND SECTIONS, DOESN’T CUT IT? WHAT HAVE YOU DONE TO ME BLEACHER REPORT??? … I really did not see that coming… like any most amazing sports play? Well, muck it.4

Alright, I will concede that this is an amazing shot, and probably one of the most difficult feats of any of the plays. And the drama is incredible! Obviously it’s going in if it’s number one, but it slowed down so much I did wonder for a few fleeting moments. Well, that’s my score of the 50 plays. Which brings us to…

The Results

Overall Scoring Breakdown

1. Play Significance: 301, average 6.02, standard deviation 3.3

2. Originality: 295, AVG 5.9, SD 2.6

3. Atmosphere: 207, 4.14, 2.89

4. Star Factor: 206, 4.12, 3.16

5. Game Significance: 167, 3.34, 2.92

6. Vegas Panic: 127, 2.54, 2.58

The results of this positively unscientific and whimsical process couldn’t be clearer: it’s a play’s impact on a game’s outcome, and how unusually the players pull it off, that are most likely to set a play apart.5 The atmosphere of the game and the presence of any stars in the sport are significant, but lesser contributions to a play’s ultimate “amazingness”, with the significance of the game itself being lesser still. The Vegas Panic stat that I completely ad-libbed was generally irrelevant, although I’m confident it had its moments (like the first Pats-Giants Super Bowl).

In terms of straight-up plays that are most likely to be remembered, I’d bet that game significance would become, uh, more significant. For instance, The Catch (football, not to mention The Catch II and The Catch III) isn’t as technically difficult as many of the (football) catches Schindel selected, but it’s probably more widely remembered than all of them combined, because we now know that the play launched the 49ers into the first of their four Super Bowl Championships in the 80s, cementing them as the team of the decade. (Also Vin Scully’s call is fantastic.)

My Top 10

After adding up scores for all 50 plays (not bringing in other plays even if I thought they were worthy), here are the ones I graded the highest (sum score of all six factors in parentheses):

I took the shot in two parts. I think that’s fair, as this post is two parts. Also looking at the comments on the article, author Austin Schindel replies to a list of not-featured plays, including “THE BAND IS ON THE FIELD!”, as such: “All great plays and a bunch of those were in the last 5 out. It’s hard to find the most amazing plays accross (sic) the board but I appreciate the comment.” You’ve got like a half-dozen plays of college football, yo. You’re saying you remembered the band and decided it really wasn’t one of the most amazing plays? (shakes head sadly)↩

At least for the 50 plays Schindel chose. As usual, more research is needed. I demand more research. And I’ll be supplying it too. Stay tuned. ↩

Hi there! This is Part One of a Two-Part Confessions of an Economic Sportsfan feature: I Just Spent 8 Hours, 1/4 of a Bottle of Whiskey, and 5,000 Words On the Greatest Sports Plays of All Time. Around midnight of December 18th, I sat back with a fairly comprehensive Bleacher Report article (as they go), my laptop, a bottle of whiskey, a recliner chair, a big screen TV, and a YouTube to investigate what makes the “All Time Classic Plays” just so. Eight hours later, I had many thoughts, maybe even answers!1 Here’s Part One:

Turns out a couple of weeks ago my good friend Victor Gutwein, renowned corporate strategist at Claire’s, as well as a long-time avid reader and email subscriber of Crossroads, dropped me a line for a column suggestion:

Hey Colin- I love your blog and always learn something new. I was thinking about some of those great “Miracle Plays” you referenced in one of your recent articles, and it made me think of a few questions you might be able to answer.

I’ve seen some amazing football plays, but only some have been immortalized and given names (like “The River City Relay” “The Music City Miracle” or even some so definitive to just be called “The Catch”). Why do only some amazing plays becomes legends, whereas other (seemingly just as amazing) plays aren’t remembered? Is it the crowd, importance of the game, importance of the play, etc? Also- when I went back to watch some of these plays, I hardly recognized any of the receivers/runningbacks that made them happen- it was almost as if they were a “one-hit wonder” (e.g. the “helmet catch” with David Tyree). The guys that make these plays don’t seem to be all-star players (obviously they are good if they are in the NFL, but they aren’t rewriting record books). Does this “little guy” effect help create the legend and immortalize the play?

Even if I’m completely wrong about my assumptions, can you just talk about the impact of immortalized plays?

Thanks Colin- you are amazing!

-Victor

Sorry it took me so long to get back to you buddy, it’s just that even though I created it I have no idea how my own website works I’ve been busy. But here I sit, up late on this brisk Chicago night (soon to be Wednesday morning), no work tomorrow, and there’s nothing good on TV. Conditions are perfect to answer Victor’s question: why do some plays become legends? Building upon his query, I propose the following factors for consideration: atmosphere, game significance, originality, play significance, star factor, and Vegas panic. A quick rundown:

Atmosphere

Victor said the crowd; I’m thinking the complete environment of the game. Red Sox vs Yankees? Celtic vs Rangers? Ohio vs Michigan? The season opener or just a humdrum afternoon? A basketball court, or Madison Square Garden? Once a player on my high school soccer team shot and scored from midfield one touch after the kickoff with fewer than five minutes left to make it a 4-3 game; but maybe twenty or thirty people were in attendance.2 We lacked atmosphere, and goal scorer John Lee did not become a legend outside our own small circles. (Well, not yet.)

Game Significance

What’s at stake? A playoff spot? Staving off elimination? Winning the championship? Or is it just a regular game, or even a preseason game? This is NOT the same as atmosphere. A Red Sox-Yankee game can still have atmosphere, even if one or both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Originality

It’s easier to type than “OH MY WORD WHAT JUST HAPPENED???”, but that’s what I’m going for. A catch? A jumping catch? A one-handed catch where the receiver impossibly got two feet in bounds? And sticks the ball against his helmet? The more original, the more likely a play finds its way into our memories, I suspect.

Play Significance

Does the play significantly affect the outcome of the game? Successful Hail Marys certainly do; long touchdown passes in the third quarter of a four touchdown game usually don’t.

Star Factor

Who pulls off this play, and who do they pull it off against? Gordan Banks, former goalkeeper of the England national soccer team, is commonly credited with the greatest save of all time. Banks was certainly good, but it’s the man whose header he stopped (this Brazilian named Pelé, maybe you’ve heard of him) that cemented his save in history.

Vegas Panic

Something along the lines of an upset factor, but more comprehensive. It’s not only an upset, it could just be something really unexpected and unusual. For example, it’s pretty common to see a losing NBA team hurl a desperation shot at the final buzzer, even if they’re down by more than three points. Sometimes those shots are made, and sometimes they swing the gambling outcome of the game if the losing team subsequently covers the spread. Of course, long-shot underdogs pulling through is probably how Vegas hysteria usually reaches us.

Which of these factors is the most important? To answer, I’m going to go through each of the 50 plays in the Bleacher Report article “The 50 Most Amazing Plays of All Time”.3 This was published on February 2, 2012, but that’s alright, it’s still a sample of 50 quite amazing plays, that must have been documented and remembered on some scale if some dude (Austin Schindel) at Bleacher Report can track them all down. I’ll rank each of the plays on each of the factors from 1-10, completely arbitrarily, without looking anything up for technical analysis (with the possible exception of getting some numbers for a Vegas Panic Index, but nah, I’ll just go with what feels right), and in no way following anything that resembles a scientific method of any sort. At the end I’ll tally up the scores and see which factors were most important. As an added bonus, I will be taking a sip4 of whiskey for every play that I have never seen before. Best get to it!5

That is a really, really ridiculous catch, AND it’s Hakeem Nicks, and we know he went on to become a big star in the actual NFL. But everything else looks like some UNC football game, because that’s all it is.

Well that was probably the most depressing play I’ve ever seen. Also I’m already getting confused by my factors. Is there “Atmosphere” if the play goes completely against the crowd? (Remembering the Stanford Band…) Yes, yes there is. And is there Vegas Panic if the play ends up (at least partially) restoring what everyone thought before hand was the extremely likely outcome? Yeah, a little bit, why not? Also I’m curious to see if Play Significance is dominant on this list; I don’t see how that can’t be a ten as it completely changed the outcome of the game. Also an originality of four because that Hail Mary was from the LSU 25! It’s pretty normal for it to bounce off like 20 dudes and the receiver to somehow walk scarcely touched into the end zone, but 75 yards? Damn.

The Miracle at the New Meadowlands! Note that DeSean actually fumbles the punt first, and then in classic DeSean fashion runs the width of the field at the one yard line and is almost tackled (well, sorta) before actually scoring. Pretty original for a punt returned for a touchdown.

Okay, the football hurdle has been around. Vernon Davis did it twice in one game a couple of weeks ago. But, Sam gets bonus points for going over a kid who was pretty much standing up at the time, way before he got close to tackling Sam.

This guy is a straight B0$$! I think he’s what they used to keep the rink from melting, ’cause he’s so cool. Definitely one of the one’s where not being a star helped his claim to fame. Because, damn. Those moves from someone who hadn’t scored a goal all season. Also only an eight for play significance, as though it won the game, missing it didn’t mean they would have lost.

WOW! I lost my mind like 12 seconds in, or whenever he decides the best way to proceed is BY GOING BACK UP THE SIDELINE, and not cutting across the field as I was expecting. Goodness gracious. The very best part: he actually lost three yards on this return. I just… love it so much. He gets it at the 48, and goes back to his own 18 (!!!), and makes it all the way back to his 45, without going more than a few yards laterally. I think this is one of the most amazing plays in the history of football. Wow.

When you do the same move on the same guy in two seconds, it’s pretty damn impressive, even if that guy lost his stick on the first move. (Hey, that’s his fault!) Also hockey playoffs! And a go-ahead goal in the third period! (Why don’t more people watch hockey? The puck isn’t that hard to follow these days. It’s really fun!)

Vegas Panic: 0 (I’m still going with the 1-10 scale but Japanese baseball?)

I’ve seen this before: No.

WOW!!! Wow. I hold back from a perfect ten in originality because technically, we’ve seen guys climb the wall before, but… wow. Also it’s at this point that I’ve added a (MUST WATCH!) next to plays that I just completely lose my *#%@ over.

Mini-confession: I have always been high on the X Games since being bored and having cable TV (well, Dish Network) as a kid. That is truly amazing, Travis Pastrana was an enormous icon in the sport even before that (if you didn’t know), and f&$% you if you don’t think that atmosphere is a 10. “I’m just having fun.” AAUUGGHH!

Okay, relax because I only designated eight (MUST WATCH!)s in the whole bunch, but AAAAUUUUGGGHHHH!!! IN THE US OPEN SEMIFINALS? Against a fierce rival and one of the best players in the world? Trying to put him away in the third set? That was profound. Look at Djokovic’s face! Absurd.

I’m just angry. This is an incredible, brilliant play, fabulously executed by Hester and Knox, and terribly executed by the scumbag who decided to hold. HOW DO YOU HOLD ON THIS PLAY? Devastating. The Eagles ran a somewhat similar play on a kickoff return last year, with an across the field pass, only ruined it as the pass went forward by maybe a half yard. But this, the Hester decoy, taking advantage of that unique skill set he brings and completely fooling the other team, all ruined… I really am devastated. A sure-fire (MUST WATCH!) but for the stupid holding penalty… grrr.

UPDATE: Upon seeing this, I emailed the link to a Bears fan friend of mine. All I said in the subject was “Surely you know this happened???!?!?!!”. His response? “I knew what this was going to be before I even clicked.” I am so proud of my friends.

First off, even as far as weird individually produced YouTube sports clip videos go, that was pretty weird/hilarious. Second off, it’s the perfect free kick. I guess that should probably be another category, something to do with execution/preparation of the play as opposed to just dumb luck. Oh well.

Gotta’ hand it to the man, pulling off the double between-the-legs crossover, a slick move to get you into the paint, previously unappreciated on the football field.

Well that’s it for Part One! Check back tomorrow to see how the rest of my night (/morning) went as I finished up the plays and tallied the results.

And of course a great deal of questions as well. Why are people so awesome and put together all these YouTube videos? How could Bleacher Report do this to me? Is it light outside? ↩

My Midland Oaks actually ended up tying those Laguna Blanca scumbags 4-4 that day, way back in my senior year of high school, I believe in late 2008 but possibly early 2009. Yes, I’m still angry we let them back in the game. (Twice.) ↩

Note: The cover picture for this article is of Tiger Woods. I’m not usually inclined to rank a golf shot high on any of the factors I’ve identified (unless the shot in question is from Happy Gilmore), but I’ll try to keep an open mind. If something from NASCAR gets in there, well… we’ll see. (Curling and other ridiculous Olympic sports? Definitely okay with that.) ↩

A sip shall constitute between roughly one-tenth and one-half of a shot, depending upon how many of these plays it turns out I actually haven’t seen, how bad@$$ a play makes me feel just watching it for the first time, and my general mood. ↩

Disclaimer: I didn’t realize there wouldn’t be a single female sporting occurrence on the list until after I was done. I think that’s pretty dumb. Surely the US Women’s National Soccer Team alone is good for a couple, plus Olympic sports (Dara Torres much?), college (basketball in particular), great stuff in women’s hockey, actual women’s professional leagues like the former WUSA and the current WNBA… I dunno why it’s a men only list, but it’s what I worked with initially. Next time I’ll do better. ↩