Game Preview: 3 areas the Chargers must win on defense

For years the Patriots have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Things are a bit different this year. Using DVOA, the Patriots have regressed from 2017 in each category. In 2017, the Patriots were the most passing offense in the NFL and it wasn’t particularly close. Their DVOA was 47%. This year that is down to 32.9%. That’s quite the drop off. That stat paints the picture with where I’m headed in this article. Simply put, these are not the Patriots that you are used to seeing. New England is still quite good in a number of areas, but this isn’t the big-play offense fans might remember.

Taking away what the Patriots do best

New England is 16th in the NFL in three and outs per drive. The offense almost comes off as Jekyll and Hyde. One game they’ll look as if they’re clicking on all cylinders and look like a Super Bowl contender. The next game you’ll wonder how they made the playoffs. There are two areas of the Patriots offense that the Chargers will need to take away. One is winning on early downs by taking away their power run game.

Stopping Sony

Sony Michel averaged 4.5 yards per carry this year. Michel is a patient runner with good balance. The real story is New England’s offensive line. The Patriots are arguably the best team in the NFL at running up the middle. They average a whopping five yards per carry when they run in between the guards. It actually gets better when the Patriots run behind the right tackle. They lead the league at a crazy 6.1 yards per carry. The line does a good job of getting a hat on a hat, but it’s fullback James Develin that makes this thing go:

It’s rare that you trust a fullback to be able to handle a defensive tackle. Develin easily executed the block above. Michel doesn’t have to do much.

One of the most asked questions this week has been “can the Chargers play small against the Patriots?” You have to believe they’ll try with the success that they had against the Ravens. This is a different beast, though. The Patriots are not trying to run around you. They want to run right through you. If the defense does go small, one thing the safeties playing linebacker cannot do is shy away from contact. Watch the Steelers linebackers on the play below:

34 allows himself to be blocked by being passive. 98 runs himself out of the play, though the aggression is good. Finally, 51 is playing patty cake with the lineman and is the reason this was an 11 yard gain. Last week, Jahleel Addae and Desmond King were aggressive, but not physical. They’ll need to be both against the Patriots. There’s no hiding when you play in the box.

The Chargers being the 10th best rushing defense is really because of the last month and a half. They have simply shut opponents down. As much as people want to talk about scheme, they have defenders that are truly incredible. Against the Ravens, Melvin Ingram defended Baltimore’s zone read exchange by himself. Seriously. He played both the quarterback and the running back and not only held his own, he changed the game. Joey Bosa played inside and out-muscled Baltimore’s interior line. Derwin James played on the edge and was responsible for nothing outside of him. He not only set the edge but he set the tone of the game on the first two plays. When the Chargers stars play like that, they’re so tough to beat. It makes life easier on the role players.

(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Preventing play-action

New England, yet again, is one of the best play-action offenses in football. Defenses refuse to adjust and the Patriots just take what is given to them. They run play-action on 29% of their plays, which is good for fourth in the NFL. The Patriots average 9.9 yards per play-action, which is first in the NFL by nearly a yard. The Chargers are 11th in yards per play, surrendering 7.6 yards per play. It’s the Julian Edelman show. The Patriots might run the other receivers deep, only to dump it off to Edelman or one of the backs. The real play where they take advantage is over the middle of the field:

When all eyes are on Rob Gronkowski, throwing windows like the one above open up for Tom Brady and company. That’s an easy pitch and catch. The Chargers have to make Brady beat them outside of the numbers. If you allow New England to have easy access over the middle and down the seams, they’ll eat you alive for four quarters.

If you watch the play-action passes the Patriots run, their receivers, rarely go deep. You would think that’s where you want the ball to go. If Brady is going to beat you with Philip Dorsett and Chris Hogan, so be it. Let them make plays 1-on-1 down the field. What cannot happen is easy access plays like this to Edelman:

“Cover 1 jump” is a perfect play for this. Or any sort of “slice” call. Those are just fancy terms for the free safety to take away the slot receiver. He keys on any in-breaking route and jumps it. That way your corner has help. Against teams that don’t have much team speed or a vertical threat that can be trusted, this call is great. I’m curious to see if this is something the Chargers do. If the Patriots keep a tight end and a running back in, or “max protect” Brady, I’d have one of the safeties jump New England’s crossing routes.

Desmond King has had a great year. He is heedy enough to know Edelman will not run deep. Sometimes, that doesn’t matter. Edelman is that quick and crafty in his route running.

Ingram played the game of his life against the Ravens. It’s Bosa’s turn against the Pats.

Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

Winning in the red area

It’s cliche. Every game is decided down in the red area. The Patriots are not going to consistently beat you with the big play. Using marginal explosiveness, they rank 19th in the run and 11th in the pass. They are 16th on standard downs and 14th on passing downs. The Chargers defense is very aggressive on passing downs. That’s when Gus Bradley likes to dial up pressure and come after you. Hoping that you make a mistake.

In the red area, the field shrinks. This is yet another area the Patriots are down from last year. 59% of their red zone opportunities end in touchdowns. That’s good for 15th in the NFL. Conversely, the Chargers allow 50% of drives to end in touchdowns on defense. That’s actually the fourth best in the NFL. This area, more than any, is where it’s imperative that the Chargers force Brady to make throws outside of the numbers. If you can move him off of his spot, even better. Brady is outstanding in the pocket at buying time, but the longer the play goes on it’s advantage Chargers.

All signs point to this being in the Chargers favor as well. The defense is second in points per scoring opportunity. While the Patriots are eighth. That is still very good.

The one area New England does have an advantage in short-yardage situations is that their running backs simply do not get tackles behind the line of scrimmage. That’s happened a shade under 16% this year, which is the fourth best mark in the NFL. This might call for an unsung hero game again. Last week it was Justin Jones. Who will it be this week?

The Patriots are good, but very beatable. Every defensive coach aims to take away what the offense does best. With the Chargers speed and athleticism, they should be able to do just that. Takeaway the intermediate passing game by jumping routes. Whether it’s play-action to Edelmen, or out routes to Gronk. Make one of the “other” receivers beat you.

We haven’t talked about James White. He is a dangerous threat out of the backfield. The Chargers are a bottom 10 unit in defending running backs, but with all defensive backs on the field, the advantage is negated. There won’t be any Hayes Pullard or Kyle Emmanuel giving up catches.

That speed should show up against the run. New England is going to have runs of double digits. If Bradley is patient and sticks to the plan, the plays the defense is able to make will outshine a 10 yard run here and there.

Even the Pats biggest advantage, Gronk, happens to be the Chargers best weapon, James. He has shut down every tight end he has faced, including Travis Kelce. Where Gronk usually wins down the field and breaking out, is where James excels at as well. This will be a good one, but the Chargers are built to beat the Patriots.

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