Why will Argentina gain the world cup? An analysis based on numbers...The sympathizers with soccer commit serious logical errors when they evaluate the probabilities of success of his own one selected in a world cup. Here, an analysis absolutely objective and based on the information that demonstrates why Argentina will gain the cup in South Africa 2010...

We are in hours of the initial kick of the World cup of Soccer South Africa 2010. In the last weeks, since it always happens in these events, the most diverse speculations have been thrown about whom it will remain with the cup.

Nevertheless, the predictions are hard affected by a key factor: the nationality of the analyst.

So I traced, inside the sports press of the considered countries "big candidates", articles of analysts specialized with predictions about the performance of every team.

The information confirms the initial hypothesis. Strong slants are observed in the compilation, analysis and interpretation of the information.

In Brazil, Spain, France, Germany, Holland, England, and Italy, there registers a systematical overestimate of the possibilities of the proper national cocktail. In the Argentina, curiously, the slant is evident in the opposite direction: the analysts underestimate the chances of the team.

This phenomenon is, up to a point, a soccer declaration of the slants that affect the executives at the time of analyzing information for the decision making. With a lot of frequency, we look and present only the information that confirm our intuitions while we reject those that contradict our theory.

Thus I proposed to realize an absolutely impartial analysis. I submitted the big favorites above mentioned to a meticulous compilation of information and a rigorous logical evaluation. Without prejudices, without manipulations, without slovenly models econométricos, not the passion of the sympathizer with soccer...

With the suitable information, using only the reason and the common sense, demostraré that the Argentina will be the next champion of the world.

As the dynamics of the tournament, we will advance eliminating successively every candidate, up to observing that selected of Diego Maradona it is the only one that supports the cold empirical test.

England and Brazil, the favorites of the investment banks

In the last weeks, the banks JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs reports published with predictions on the performance of the different countries in South Africa 2010. The first one thinks that champion will be England. The second one, that the cup will travel to Brazil.

How did they come to these conclusions? With information extracted from diverse bookmakers to which they applied the same quantitative models that they use in his trading operations.

Although: can we entrust in the same mathematical models that they were affirming that the mortgage investments were sure?

Finally, the predictions of the models depend on the assumptions with with that they are constructed, considering in major or minor measured the variables that they assure to us that we will obtain the wished results. And these assumptions depend on the interests of the analysts (and of his chiefs).

Since it shows, it is enough the following thing. The model of Goldman Sachs supports that the United States have 2,81 % of probabilities of remaining with the cup, over the Portugal of Cristiano Ronaldo (and almost the triple that Paraguay, which did an impeccable qualifying round!).

Is very crazy to think that one treats the North American government as a "return of gentleness" for the salvataje that the bank received in October, 2008?

It is clear that any prediction realized with these models is slanted and erroneous. Thus we can deduce that neither England nor Brazil will gain the cup of the world.

Spain, not a world cup team

In 2008, Spain gained the Eurocup. Like that, many indicate it like favorite for South Africa 2010.

But, if we analyze the historical information, simply we see that Spain never went so far as to dispute even a semifinal of a Cup of the World (not even in 1982, when he organized the tournament). The T-shirt that they will dress Puyol, Xavi and the Child Toast it does not give good results in the world cups.

Logically, we can eliminate it of the list of candidates.

Holland, great players ground but without world cups

Holland, with scarcely 16 millions of inhabitants, is perhaps the ground with major good players production per cápita of the world. From there there went out Johan Cruyff, Ruud Gullit, Marco Van Basten, Frank Rikjaard, Edgar Davids and Patrick Kluivert, between others.

But the true thing is that Holland almost has not benefited from his soccer talent. Although these players have excelled in the best clubs of the world, his performance in the world cups has been very poor.

In 1974, the Mechanical Orange of Cruyff and Rinus Michels could not in the final against the Germany of Franz Beckenbauer y Gerd Müller.

In 1978, another fall in the final, this time with Argentina.

In 1990, the stars of historical Milan de Arrigo Sacchi came like favorites, with Gullit, Van Basten, and Rikjaard, in his best moment. But they fell down in eighth of end, leaving a sad image.

What there could not Cruyff, Gullit, Van Basten, Rikjaard, Bergkamp, Davids and so many other stars: will they be able to obtain it in South Africa Heitinga, Van der Vaart, Babel and Huntelaar? (with the whole respect that these good players deserve).

Logically, we can eliminate Holland of the list of candidates.

Italy cannot gain two followed world cups

In the postwar period, no team gained two world cups continued with the same technical director.

Argentina conquered the trophy in 1978 with César Luis Menotti. But it did a slack role in 1982 with the same driver.

In 1986, it devoted itself again, this time, with Carlos Salvador Bilardo. In 1990, it had the poorest performance. If it came to the final it was only for the heroic hands of Sergio Goycochea.

It is clear that to support the same leader generates a repetition of the old recipe that led to the success in the previous tournament. But, in a soccer as dynamic as that of today, this is a way to the defeat.

Since it is known, the DT of Italy is Marcello Lippi, the same one who gained the cup in 2006. Inevitably, it will be unable to repeat the victory in 2010.

With all confidence, then, we can eliminate to the square azzurra of the list of candidates.

France, without Zidane it is impossible

France is the country that more has progressed futbolísticamente in the last years. Between 1930 and 1994, it did not dispute any final of a world cup. In 1998 champion devoted himself for the first time, in that one remembered 3-0 against Brazil in Saint-Denis. In 2006, it lost the final for penalties against Italy.

The golden years of the French soccer have an explanation with name and surname: Zinedine Zidane.

In fact, in Korea - Japan 2002, when France was eliminated in the first round, Zidane was injured and one lost the first two parties. Newly they included it in the third one, still disabled, but the luck was already lazy.

Zizou played his last party for them "bleus" in the final of 2006 against Italy. His career finished with that remembered butt rear Marco Materazzi. And, with this expulsion, they finished also the golden years of the French soccer.

We can, then, affirm with absolute certainty that France will not gain the world cup.

Germany and the geographical impossibility

Germany never came to the final of a world cup disputed in the south hemisphere. Even more, three world cups that it gained were in Switzerland (1954), Germany (1974) and Italy (1990). Namely always playing of place or inside an area of influence near to his borders.

The causes of this phenomenon still have not been clearly elucidated. But, to the ends of our investigation, we do not need to investigate any more.

South Africa stays in the south hemisphere and to almost 10.000 kilometers of Berlin, throwing for ground all the German aspirations to obtain his fourth cup of the world.

Argentina champion, out of necessity statistics

So far, we have developed a logical / statistical rigorous method that it has been eliminating successively to the different candidates for rising with the cup.

Now we will see how the same method allows us to deduce that the Argentine selection will note down his third world cup in South Africa.

The parallelism of the dying classification: This is a well-known argument, but not for less powerful it.

In 1985, Argentina qualified to the World cup with a dying goal of Ricardo Gareca against Peru in the stadium of River Plate. And, since it is known, the albiceleste remained with the Cup in Mexico '86.

In 2009, 24 years later, Martín Palermo marked the goal of the classification, in the same arch of the same stadium, against the same rival and also pushing a center rasante on the line. The parallelism is clear.

The parallelism of the leadership: In Mexico '86 and Italy '90 the key managing vacancies of the Argentine selection were filled by Julio Humberto Grondona (president of the AFA), Carlos Salvador Bilardo (the technical director) and Diego Maradona (who was handling the team inside the field).

After 20 years of drought, in 2010, Argentina has the same persons in leadership positions. Grondona continues like president of the AFA, Bilard returned like general manager of the selection and Maradona it is the DT.

Whenever these three persons were in the same team during a world cup, the Argentina came, like minimum, to the final (and it could remain with the cup in Italy, of not having been for that doubtful penalty received for the Mexican umpire Edgardo Codesal, that Andreas Brehme changed for goal). Again, the parallelism is clear.

The parallelism of the climate: A meticulous analysis of the information reveals to us that all the world cups disputed in the south hemisphere were gained by countries of the above mentioned hemisphere: Uruguay 1930 (champion Uruguay), Brazil 1950 (champion Uruguay), Chile 1962 (champion Brazil), Argentina 1978 (champion Argentina).

It is clear that the European teams are not prepared to gain a world cup in winter and in a ground where the water goes away for the toilet in direction opposite to that they are used. Then, the possible champions are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, Paraguay, South Africa and Uruguay.

It is not necessary to extend us on the cases of Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa, Paraguay and Uruguay. Nobody in his healthy judgment would put them in the list of candidates. And, more above, we have told why Brazil will not be the champion. This leaves us to the Argentina like the only possibility.

Finally, in the last weeks we have heard all kinds of speculations about the results of the next cup of the world.

The majority is based on the passion futbolera or on mathematical models which apparent objectivity conceals, in fact, strong slants in the assumptions to obtain the wished result.

As one day the famous statistician Damodar Gujarati said: "If the sufficient thing is tortured to the information, these finish with confessing".

In this article, we have developed an absolutely objective and impartial analysis, with accurate and indisputable information that anyone can verify, without fanaticisms, without prejudices, without colors or secret interests.

Thanks to this analysis, we have identified correctly the causes and effects that explain the performance of a team in a world cup. This way, we can affirm, logically, that chosen Argentinian will rise with the Cup of the World 2010. It is a historical need.

Australia isn't the best team in the world cup because they lacked tactical and technical skills, look Australia could've went through without Harry Kwell being sent of for the non-deliberate handball, i criticize the ref decision was abit harsh and bs. I would say Ghana only progressed through the knock-out stages with only 2 goals all from penalties and they're shit lucky. We were heart-broken that we got eliminated through goals difference 4 pts for Ghana and 4 pts for Australia. Sebbat if Australia is crap as u said how come majority of socceroos fan went to cheer for them, look at the crowds they are always huge, even we didn't make it to the knock-stages Australia still made its fans prouder than ever and they learnt their lesson from the very first game Germany thrashing Australia 4-0 because we played poorly, but look at Aus vs Ghana 1-1 and AUs vs Serbia 2-1, even though we didn't make it through goal diff there's no shame about that. Australia may develop into many years to come, so Sebbat i love you and don't say AUS r shit in football/soccer atleast they can still play, how did we beat Serbia, because we left our energy & momentum at the last two matches in the group stage. By the way we haven't qualified for the world cup for 32 years, and since 2006 Australia broke that drought and made a history which changed Australia as a prouder nation. That's the best thing that have changed Australia and its fans.

bah this match was totally unfair. Look at the referee, and netherlands game play, they were playing badly, and deserved a lot more yellow cards. this match should have ended 10 vs 8 for brazil, and not like that.

Ehem.. let me explain you something xasomur, uruguay its a country like Argentina, there they live football like in my country.. well you think that suarez was unsportman? I think that the referee expulsed him and ghana had the penalty.. suarez right now is a hero in his country, a great player and he saved uruguay, i dont think that he is unsportman, because he saved with a hand a ball in the last minute, i think that the unsportman are the guys who are always commiting fault for stop players like messi or kaka, these are unsportmans.. luis suarez, its a hero and he is a great player, that hand, right now, its like hand of god in uruguay.