Maybe it’s time for Barry Zito and the Giants to part ways

The Zito contract was an obvious mistake from day one — no question about it. Multi-year $100MM contracts for pitchers are inherently risky, and that’s exacerbated by the fact that Zito wasn’t even much of an ace when he signed with the Giants. In fact, by 2007, he had declined to the point where he could honestly be considered nothing more than a solid mid-rotation arm.

In any event, I more-or-less consider myself to be a Barry Zito apologist. Over these past five years, he’s made a lot more money than he deserves, quite obviously, but I think he’s been better than he gets credit for. From 2007-2010, he averaged 1.85 WAR per season, which — contract details aside — is great for a fifth-starter.

A source close to the team indicated Tuesday that there is “exasperation” with Zito, that his status as the No. 5 starter is “definitely not safe,” and that the team would even consider buying out his expensive contract before Opening Day if that’s what it takes to say farewell.

That sounded crazy. This was, of course, before the emergence of Ryan Vogelsong and Eric Surkamp — a time when the Giants’ rotation insurance was Jeff Suppan, Clayton Tanner, or Dan Runzler. Zito had proven himself a perfectly decent back-of-the-rotation starter, and the Giants clearly didn’t have any better options at the time.

Now, perhaps that’s changed. Zito’s 33 years old, and his days as an average starter are quite possibly behind him. Never one to throw hard, Zito has seen his fastball velocity drop in 2011 to levels that are pretty much unacceptable (via Fangraphs):

His numbers, accordingly, have dropped off. His walk rate — 9.8% — is pretty much in line with his career norms, but his strikeouts have dipped to a new low (he’s striking out hitters at a measly clip of 13.7%). In nine starts, he’s racked up a grand total of -0.2 wins above replacement. We’re talking about a pitcher with the highest qualified walk rate in all of baseball during the last five years, and an 83 MPH fastball. At this point, it’s hard to believe the Giants don’t have five starters better than him.

San Francisco enters the 2012 season with four starters — Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong — that are quite clearly better than Zito. And though he’s made just two starts, I feel quite confident in saying that Eric Surkamp is also better than Zito at this point. It remains to be seen whether Jonathan Sanchez will be tendered a contract this offseason, but he’s also a better option in the fifth-starter slot than Zito.

The Giants still owe Zito $39 million on the contract, plus $7 million if they fail to pick up Zito’s option for 2014 (which seems certain). Giants management has been non-committal when asked about Zito’s role next season. As with Rowand, the Giants will have determine this winter whether they are a better team without Zito as the fifth starter.

Maybe 2011 marks the end of Zito’s career as a San Francicso Giant. It’s a tough decision, but it’s looking like it’s probably the right decision. I imagine if the Giants eat the entirety of his contract, there will definitely be teams interested in acquiring him.

UPDATE: Because I think this is an interesting topic of debate…Comment-starter:
1) Do you think the Giants should part ways with Zito this offseason?
2) Not accounting for cost, rank the following in order of who you think is the better SP entering 2012: Zito, Surkamp, Vogelsong, Sanchez.

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5 thoughts on “Maybe it’s time for Barry Zito and the Giants to part ways”

Even if the Giants are not planning on Zito being in the rotation, or even on the team, next year, there is no reason to drop him in the offseason. They are going to have to pay him anyway. They need to meet with him and let him know that conditioning and velocity are issues. They need to let him know they expect him to come to camp in great shape and he needs to get his velocity up into the high 80’s. They should not threaten to release him because he might actually want that. They do, however, need to let him know he will not make the rotation without improvement in conditioning and velocity.

Then see what happens in spring training. They can always release him the day before Opening Day if it comes to that. Hey, it worked with Pablo!

“From 2007-2010, he averaged 1.85 WAR per season, which — contract details aside — is great for a fifth-starter.”
The problem with this statement is Zito was brought to the team to be the ace, not the 5th starter.

“1) Do you think the Giants should part ways with Zito this offseason?”
Absolutely yes.

“2) Not accounting for cost, rank the following in order of who you think is the better SP entering 2012″
Vogelsong, Surkamp, push. I see Sanchez as similar to Zito; he has/had great stuff at some point, but blown too many chances to show he can be consistent. I would have liked to have seen him traded away for a couple of prospects mid-season.