Second, the comparison seems to be less than complimentary to some people but I think there’s something they are missing. Jeff Green after his second year was still a helluva prospect with All-Star potential. The issue is that he never advanced beyond that.

So saying “Jaylen is a bit like Jeff Green” is neither an insult nor a prediction that Jaylen at 25 will be Jeff Green at 25. In fact, I would say that Green was a bit of an outlier in how he stopped improving, so I both see the comparison at age 21/22 and am very optimistic about Jaylen.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown).

There’s a context that you’re ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team. Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.

As I've been saying nearly identical stats. They also have nearly identical roles on those teams (at least in year 2). Sure, Boston was a better team than Seattle/Oklahoma City, but the similarities are uncanny from a role, production, etc. stand point.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting Brown will level off like Green did, but Green wasn't the first or last person to not show much growth (I mean look at old friend KO for another guy that didn't show much growth in his game). Look at Myles Turner from the draft before Brown. Great 2nd year with nice growth from year 1 to year 2, but a major regression this year. Maybe Turner doesn't turn it around and year 2 was his best year. Then again, maybe Brown is like Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. that show tremendous growth every season.

Obviously only time will tell on which way Brown ends up, but the comparison to Green thus far is pretty spot on given their actual roles and their actual on-court production (not personality wise, but production wise).

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown).

There’s a context that you’re ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team. Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.

As I've been saying nearly identical stats. They also have nearly identical roles on those teams (at least in year 2). Sure, Boston was a better team than Seattle/Oklahoma City, but the similarities are uncanny from a role, production, etc. stand point.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting Brown will level off like Green did, but Green wasn't the first or last person to not show much growth (I mean look at old friend KO for another guy that didn't show much growth in his game). Look at Myles Turner from the draft before Brown. Great 2nd year with nice growth from year 1 to year 2, but a major regression this year. Maybe Turner doesn't turn it around and year 2 was his best year. Then again, maybe Brown is like Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. that show tremendous growth every season.

Obviously only time will tell on which way Brown ends up, but the comparison to Green thus far is pretty spot on given their actual roles and their actual on-court production (not personality wise, but production wise).

If you compare it by age and not years in the league the numbers tell a different story.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown).

There’s a context that you’re ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team. Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.

As I've been saying nearly identical stats. They also have nearly identical roles on those teams (at least in year 2). Sure, Boston was a better team than Seattle/Oklahoma City, but the similarities are uncanny from a role, production, etc. stand point.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting Brown will level off like Green did, but Green wasn't the first or last person to not show much growth (I mean look at old friend KO for another guy that didn't show much growth in his game). Look at Myles Turner from the draft before Brown. Great 2nd year with nice growth from year 1 to year 2, but a major regression this year. Maybe Turner doesn't turn it around and year 2 was his best year. Then again, maybe Brown is like Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. that show tremendous growth every season.

Obviously only time will tell on which way Brown ends up, but the comparison to Green thus far is pretty spot on given their actual roles and their actual on-court production (not personality wise, but production wise).

What Jaylen did, going from a 17 mpg role player to an above-average starter and excellent defender, is a huge leap.

And Jeff Green made the same kind of leap. Their per minute production in year 1 was almost identical. Their per minute production in year 2 in basically exactly the same role was almost identical. Green played more as a rookie than Brown, in large part because Green earned his starting spot faster, but Green still saw a pretty nice jump in minutes in his second year, not the 14.4 minutes Brown jumped, but still a solid 8.6 minutes per game increase. Their BPM, VORP, etc. are also pretty close (Green a bit better offensively, Brown a bit better defensively).

You guys can't see the similarities because of what Green ended up becoming, not what he was a 22 year old 2nd year player.

How about this player

20 year old rookie year 32 games played (3 starts) 11.7 mpg, 5.2 p, 1.3 r, 0.6 a, 0.4 s with a TS% of 54.1

Pretty consistent production with an increased role. Making the progression you would expect. Yet for year 3 he switches teams, ends up on 2 teams, plays just 30 games, shoots horribly. Year 4 yet another team 38 games (12 starts), shoots even worse, career low in minutes. out of the league for 2 years before coming back and is now a quality role player for a contender.

I bring up Gerald Green because who knows what will happen in the future. Brown could be Jimmy Butler or the Greek Freak. Or he could be Jeff Green or Kelly Olynyk. Or he could be Myles Turner or Gerald Green. Or any player in between those, but it certainly doesn't mean the comparison to Jeff Green is off base when you would be hard pressed to find two players with on court production and team role that is as closely mirrored as those two.

What Jaylen did, going from a 17 mpg role player to an above-average starter and excellent defender, is a huge leap.

Green was a solid starter in his second year too, though. And by his 3rd year he was the starting PF and played the 2nd most minutes on a 50-win team.

I feel like you and Nick and others are running away from the Green comparison based on the player he became, not the one he was at the time.

As you may recall, when we traded for him, it was nip and tuck as to whether it would be Harden or Green in the deal. Both were viewed as highly promising players.

That last paragraph just isn’t true. OKC was never giving up Harden; Green had fallen out of favor in OKC by that time, and was hardly promising (except perhaps to Celtics fans, who love shiny new trade acquisitions).

The comparison with second year Jeff Green is flawed because it’s comparing two guys with different roles who came into the league at different ages. Using “per minute” numbers to make a comparison is almost always a stretch, and defense is being ignored all together in this comparison. Also, of course, the original comparison was to Jeff Green (not second year Jeff Green) citing his inconsistency as the basis of the comparison.

What Jaylen did, going from a 17 mpg role player to an above-average starter and excellent defender, is a huge leap.

Green was a solid starter in his second year too, though. And by his 3rd year he was the starting PF and played the 2nd most minutes on a 50-win team.

I feel like you and Nick and others are running away from the Green comparison based on the player he became, not the one he was at the time.

As you may recall, when we traded for him, it was nip and tuck as to whether it would be Harden or Green in the deal. Both were viewed as highly promising players.

That last paragraph just isn’t true. OKC was never giving up Harden; Green had fallen out of favor in OKC by that time, and was hardly promising (except perhaps to Celtics fans, who love shiny new trade acquisitions).

The comparison with second year Jeff Green is flawed because it’s comparing two guys with different roles who came into the league at different ages. Using “per minute” numbers to make a comparison is almost always a stretch, and defense is being ignored all together in this comparison.

fallen out of favor is a bit much. Green was the starting PF playing 37 mpg when he was traded to Boston. He was however no where near the prospect Harden was, which is why Boston asked for Harden and OKC said no.

Jaylen Brown is playing 32 mpg and Jeff Green played 37 mpg in his 2nd year. They were both starting and were both basically the 3rd best player on their team in their 2nd year. You absolutely can compare their per minute production in those scenarios. In fact, that is when per minute comparisons are at their best. Brown is probably a better defender than Green was, but Green was never a sieve defensively, even with him playing out of position at PF in OKC, he was still a competent defender. You are significantly overplaying Brown's defensive advantage over Green just to try to come up with reasons why the comparison doesn't work, and it is just silly. They quite simply are comparable players in year 2.

Ultimately, comparisons aside, what it comes down too is how much Jaylen improves from here. He could take another coup of leaps and end up a all nba level player or he could level off and be a good starter for a long time. We just don't know. Saying he looks like Jeff Green through year 2, whether correct or not, isn't predictive of future performance.

Jaylen Brown as a rookie had a higher TS% than Jeff Green had at any time while he was playing for OKC. His TS% is even higher in his second season.

He's also shooting a much higher percentage on threes this year **than Jeff Green has for the vast majority of his career**, and he's doing so on significantly more attempts per game than Green's career average of 2.9 3PA.

Furthermore Jeff Green hasn't had a significantly positive DPM since 2010, whereas Jaylen is at +0.8 in his second season which is pretty good.

All signs point to Jaylen being a solid defender and a good shooter, neither of which have ever been good descriptors for Jeff Green over any significant sample of games.

« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 07:23:50 PM by PhoSita »

Logged

You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.- Mark Twain

Brown is probably a better defender than Green was, but Green was never a sieve defensively, even with him playing out of position at PF in OKC, he was still a competent defender. You are significantly overplaying Brown's defensive advantage over Green just to try to come up with reasons why the comparison doesn't work, and it is just silly

Respectfully, you’re making things up. Green was seen as a bad defender at PF, a mediocre one at SF. Green holds opponents to the lowest FG% of any starter in the NBA, and the 4th best FG% differential.

Jaylen Brown as a rookie had a higher TS% than Jeff Green had at any time while he was playing for OKC. His TS% is even higher in his second season.

He's also shooting a much higher percentage on threes this year than Jeff Green ever has for a full season.

Furthermore Jeff Green hasn't had a significantly positive DPM since 2010, whereas Jaylen is at +0.8 in his second season which is pretty good.

All signs point to Jaylen being a solid defender and a good shooter, neither of which have ever been good descriptors for Jeff Green over any significant sample of games.

Brown's second year TS% is 54.7%. Green's was 53.6%

Brown's shooting 37.8% this year from 3. In his second year, Jeff Green shot 38.9%.

I don't think anyone would dispute Brown is a better defender, but as a 2nd year player Green was highly regarded.

You're right, I misread the shooting stats re: 3P%.

Green was highly regarded as a second year player, sure, but he was also 22 already.

Even setting that caveat aside, I think we can agree if Jaylen has hit his peak in his second season, like Green seemed to do, we will all have a problem.

Green showed promise and then never really improved. Considering how far Jaylen has come between Year 1 and Year 2, I don't know why anybody would have a great deal of skepticism about him continuing to improve as a two way contributor.

I say this as a person who was pretty skeptical of the decision to draft Jaylen at the time.

Logged

You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.- Mark Twain

I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise. Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year. I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is. That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

Yes, the two are pretty simlar rthorugh their first two years. But the entire knock on Jeff Green was that he never got any better, that he wasted his physical gifts and could have been more than he was. You say that we cant discount Jayleen Brown having a Jeff green like career because of his statistsicall comaprison to Jeff Green, but that ignores so many other variables including the fact he's already better from 3 then Jeff Green. He plays on a better team which likely supresses his raw numbers, he is a year younger relative to Jeff Green, and again they are nowhere near the same attitude wise, Jaylen has already so massively imroved, and continues to improve. In alot of ways making a statistcial coaprison and saying Jaylen Brown could end up like player x is a coomplete waste of time because with young guys you just dont know what they will become, but since we are doing it compare Jaylen with Paul George year two. Very similar. So i guesss we can't rule out he becomes a top 10-15 player like George either. If Jeff green is his floor, and Paul George his ceiling i'm pretty happy abut it.

Jeff Green's 2nd year in the league he shot 38.9% from 3. Green's 2nd year he played 36.8 mpg and scored 16.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.2 tpg, 2.6 fpg and shot 46.3% from 2, 38.9% from 3, and 78.8% from the line.

His advanced stats from that season: 53.6 TS%, 10.4 RB%, 9.1 AST%, 1.4 ST%, 0.8 BLK%, 12.6 TOV% with a 21.2% USG and a PER of 13.9.

Those were fairly significant improvements from the 1st to 2nd year, pretty much across the board for Green.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown).

I think a lot of people misremember the jump Green took from year 1 to year 2 because Green then stayed pretty flat the rest of his career. At his peak, Green was essentially the same player he was in his 2nd year, but Green absolutely took a pretty big leap from year 1 to year 2. And yes, Green was older than Brown, but he was 22 his entire 2nd year, he wasn't 25.

a) Jeff Green was more than a full year older in each of his corresponding NBA seasons than Jaylen Brown. He had played three full seasons totally 3388 minutes at Georgetown (plus more tournament games) compared to Jaylen playing just one season at Cal for a total of 939 minutes.

b) In addition to having played an additional 2400+ college minutes, Green played a whopping 2253 minutes his rookie season (and eventually another 2873 minutes by the end of his 2nd season). By comparison, Brown played just 1556 minutes total (including playoffs) his rookie year and is on pace for perhaps about 2500 this season.

c) Green played SF & PF for a crappy OKC team. Brown has been playing SF & SG for a very competitive Celtics team.

They are at very different age and experiential points in their careers.

This is ultimately a lazy comparison. One can plug in Jaylen's first and second year numbers and look for players with similar numbers and you get over a 100 matches, ranging from Keith Bogans to Ryan Gomes to Kawhi Leonard.

Is it possible that Jaylen will plateau as a similar player to Jeff Green? Certainly.

Is it possible that he grows to a ceiling of Kawhi Leonard? Certainly.

Jaylen Brown as a rookie had a higher TS% than Jeff Green had at any time while he was playing for OKC. His TS% is even higher in his second season.

He's also shooting a much higher percentage on threes this year than Jeff Green ever has for a full season.

Furthermore Jeff Green hasn't had a significantly positive DPM since 2010, whereas Jaylen is at +0.8 in his second season which is pretty good.

All signs point to Jaylen being a solid defender and a good shooter, neither of which have ever been good descriptors for Jeff Green over any significant sample of games.

Brown's second year TS% is 54.7%. Green's was 53.6%

Brown's shooting 37.8% this year from 3. In his second year, Jeff Green shot 38.9%.

I don't think anyone would dispute Brown is a better defender, but as a 2nd year player Green was highly regarded.

You're right, I misread the shooting stats re: 3P%.

Green was highly regarded as a second year player, sure, but he was also 22 already.

Even setting that caveat aside, I think we can agree if Jaylen has hit his peak in his second season, like Green seemed to do, we will all have a problem.

Green showed promise and then never really improved. Considering how far Jaylen has come between Year 1 and Year 2, I don't know why anybody would have a great deal of skepticism about him continuing to improve as a two way contributor.

I say this as a person who was pretty skeptical of the decision to draft Jaylen at the time.

Agree on almost all counts.

As I said above, there's lots of reason for optimism on Jaylen. It's really Green who was the surprising (negative) outlier. With his second-year numbers, you would have had every reason to think he would become a star. And plenty of reasonable people did.

(Roy H. mentioned the over-optimism around these parts, and he's right, but that was different: Green was 26 and had clearly plateaued, and yet people were somehow thinking he could become a "top 5 SF." I still can't read those words without a shudder.)

I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise. Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year. I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is. That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

Yes, the two are pretty simlar rthorugh their first two years. But the entire knock on Jeff Green was that he never got any better, that he wasted his physical gifts and could have been more than he was. You say that we cant discount Jayleen Brown having a Jeff green like career because of his statistsicall comaprison to Jeff Green, but that ignores so many other variables including the fact he's already better from 3 then Jeff Green. He plays on a better team which likely supresses his raw numbers, he is a year younger relative to Jeff Green, and again they are nowhere near the same attitude wise, Jaylen has already so massively imroved, and continues to improve. In alot of ways making a statistcial coaprison and saying Jaylen Brown could end up like player x is a coomplete waste of time because with young guys you just dont know what they will become, but since we are doing it compare Jaylen with Paul George year two. Very similar. So i guesss we can't rule out he becomes a top 10-15 player like George either. If Jeff green is his floor, and Paul George his ceiling i'm pretty happy abut it.

Jeff Green's 2nd year in the league he shot 38.9% from 3. Green's 2nd year he played 36.8 mpg and scored 16.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.2 tpg, 2.6 fpg and shot 46.3% from 2, 38.9% from 3, and 78.8% from the line.

His advanced stats from that season: 53.6 TS%, 10.4 RB%, 9.1 AST%, 1.4 ST%, 0.8 BLK%, 12.6 TOV% with a 21.2% USG and a PER of 13.9.

Those were fairly significant improvements from the 1st to 2nd year, pretty much across the board for Green.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown).

I think a lot of people misremember the jump Green took from year 1 to year 2 because Green then stayed pretty flat the rest of his career. At his peak, Green was essentially the same player he was in his 2nd year, but Green absolutely took a pretty big leap from year 1 to year 2. And yes, Green was older than Brown, but he was 22 his entire 2nd year, he wasn't 25.

a) Jeff Green was more than a full year older in each of his corresponding NBA seasons than Jaylen Brown. He had played three full seasons totally 3388 minutes at Georgetown (plus more tournament games) compared to Jaylen playing just one season at Cal for a total of 939 minutes.

b) In addition to having played an additional 2400+ college minutes, Green played a whopping 2253 minutes his rookie season (and eventually another 2873 minutes by the end of his 2nd season). By comparison, Brown played just 1556 minutes total (including playoffs) his rookie year and is on pace for perhaps about 2500 this season.

c) Green played SF & PF for a crappy OKC team. Brown has been playing SF & SG for a very competitive Celtics team.

They are at very different age and experiential points in their careers.

This is ultimately a lazy comparison. One can plug in Jaylen's first and second year numbers and look for players with similar numbers and you get over a 100 matches, ranging from Keith Bogans to Ryan Gomes to Kawhi Leonard.

Is it possible that Jaylen will plateau as a similar player to Jeff Green? Certainly.

Is it possible that he grows to a ceiling of Kawhi Leonard? Certainly.

Both are possible. Neither statement informs us of very much.

I've also mentioned plenty of other players that took a jump from year 1 to year 2, but regressed (including some that are were as raw or rawer than Brown). Or that come in and are pretty consistent across the board.

And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.