Rudd can’t prevent Labor obliteration: pollsters

Former prime minister Kevin Rudd ... Nielsen director John Stirton says Mr Rudd’s appeal is unlikely to translate into a win and any bounce at the ballot box would rely on a bloodless transition and a subsequent honeymoon.
Photo: Paul Harris

During the past three years, Labor has twice shown signs of recovery, only to see poll gains disappear as internecine leadership speculation, real or otherwise, broke out again.

This compares with Labor’s two-party preferred polling of about 55 per cent under Mr Rudd in the months leading up to the 2010 leadership change.

A Nielsen poll earlier this month predicted a wipeout for Labor at the September election based on a 57 per cent two-party preferred vote for the Coalition. The latest polling also suggested Mr Rudd continued to enjoy much stronger support than Ms Gillard.

Nielsen director
John Stirton
told The Australian Financial Review that Mr Rudd’s appeal was unlikely to translate into a win and any bounce at the ballot box would rely on a bloodless transition and a subsequent honeymoon.

“It all really depends on how it plays out in the next couple of days and how it is portrayed and how, if Rudd gets up, how the Gillard supporters respond," Mr Stirton said.

“It is probably too early to say whether, if he wins, there will be a honeymoon and how bloodless this is.

Related Quotes

Company Profile

“They are likely to lose with either leader but do a bit better with the change."

One of the difficulties for Mr Rudd will be the resignations from Labor’s frontbench, which started on Wednesday night, and possibly more retirements among its MPs, which would make it even more difficult for the party to present a united front, he said.

Another was the intended retirements announced on Wednesday of independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, which effectively handed the Coalition another two seats.

“It makes Labor’s job just that much harder, it is more seats they have to win," he said.

He cautioned that voters might believe that Mr Rudd deserved his job back, but would still rather vote for the Coalition than see Labor returned.

Labor at risk of losing half its seats

JWS managing director
John Scales
said it was very difficult to measure exactly what difference Mr Rudd would make, but it was unlikely to haul the party back to a winning position.

“We get that from our focus groups continuously, they are just fed up with this stuff," he said. “One way or the other, whether people happen to like Gillard or Rudd more or less, they are going to kick them [Labor] regardless because of what they have been up to."

Having said that, Mr Scales said it was very difficult to accurately assess the difference a switch of the Labor leadership would have on the party’s vote, partly because Mr Rudd’s ascendency was still a hypothetical.

“If you look at it on a numbers basis, it shows that Rudd pulls Labor’s vote back to a competitive situation," he said.

“[But] the most accurate answers are when you ask people their views based on their current view, rather than what their view would be if the situation changed."

Mr Scales said there were also other factors that could damage Mr Rudd’s popularity.

For example, there was a sense among voters that they expected Mr Rudd to be a better leader than he was last time, which could also build up unrealistic expectations, he said.

“They have got an idealistic view about what Rudd would be like as a leader," he said.