Chinese Warn of Civil Unrest Across Country

Saturday, June 02, 2001

Erik Eckholm -- New York Times Service

Communist Party Document Paints Picture of
Discontent

Beijing -- A startling new report from the Communist Party's
inner sanctum describes a spreading pattern of "collective
protests and group incidents" arising from economic, ethnic and
religious conflicts in China and says relations between party
officials and the masses are "tense, with conflicts on the rise."

The unusually frank report, produced by a top party research group
and released quietly in the past week, describes mounting public anger
over inequality, corruption and official aloofness. And it paints a
picture of seething unrest almost as bleak as any drawn by dissidents
abroad.

The report warns that the coming years of rapid change, driven by
China's planned opening of markets to foreign trade and investment,
are likely to mean even greater social conflict.

It makes urgent but vague recommendations for changes to save the
party and the nation through "system reforms" that can
reduce public grievances.

"Our country's entry into the World Trade Organization may
bring growing dangers and pressures," the report states, "and
it can be predicted that in the ensuing period the number of group
incidents may jump, severely harming social stability and even
disturbing the smooth implementation of reform and opening up."

The report, "China Investigation Report 2000-2001: Studies of
Contradictions Within the People Under New Conditions," was
compiled by a research group of the party's department of
organization, which runs key party affairs including promotions,
training and discipline.

The department is headed by Zeng Qinghong, a powerful and secretive
adviser to President Jiang Zemin who is widely believed to seek higher
office. It appears to represent an attempt by Mr. Zeng or other senior
officials to set a reform-oriented agenda for party deliberations and
leadership changes in the next few years.

The report, published as a book by a party press, cites growing
inequality and corruption as overarching sources of discontent. The
income gap is approaching the "alarm level," it says, with
disparities widening between city and countryside, between the
faster-growing east coast and the interior, and within urban
populations as well. The report describes official corruption as "the
main fuse exacerbating conflicts between officials and the masses."

Protests of all kinds have become more common as China pursues a
wrenching change from the old state-run economy, a risky course the
leadership feels is necessary to China's future growth, and as the
public becomes more assertive about perceived rights.

Workers laid off from failing state enterprises have protested the
misuse of company assets by managers and the frequent failure to pay
worker pensions and stipends. Farmers angered by unbearable taxes and
haughty officials have had numerous deadly encounters with the police.

The report was published as a 308-page book by the party's Central
Compilation and Translation Press. It was freely available for
purchase Friday at the press's office, where buyers were trickling in
based on word-of-mouth, but has not yet been widely publicized or sold
in the country's bookstores.

The study was intended, its introduction says, to analyze the
causes of growing "contradictions" among the people and
propose countermeasures.

The somber analysis contrasts starkly with the upbeat messages
generally offered in official speeches and newspapers, where every
problem is described as nearly solved, and it is unclear why officials
broke with the tradition of keeping sensitive findings secret.

The book is at once a call for vigilance against threats and a plea
for speedy reforms within the party and government, such as
strengthening the legal system and expanding "socialist
democracy." It warns that economic development must benefit the
majority of people and that victims of change must be fairly
compensated.

At the same time, it attacks the notion that Marxism is obsolescent
and aims to salvage the party's rule through innovation, not to end
its monopoly on power. Beyond stimulating discussion, the report could
represent an effort by Mr. Zeng or others to lay out their own
credentials as the Communist Party enters an uncertain period of
transition and chooses new leaders. Mr. Jiang and other top leaders
are expected to relinquish most of their party and government posts
over the next two years.

The report does not estimate the number of disturbances, but its
strong language suggests that the scale of demonstrations and riots
has been greater than revealed, either by the official press or in
reports abroad.

While security agencies have not been able to prevent such
incidents, they have prevented disaffected workers or farmers in
different regions from linking up, thus avoiding any serious blows to
Communist rule so far.

The government's response to unrest has been two-pronged:
containment and reform. In well-publicized speeches last year, Mr.
Jiang and others said there was a the need to nip in the bud any
threats to social stability, which in practice has meant stricter
policing of dissenters and tighter restrictions on publishing.

This year, a national "strike-hard campaign" against
crime has included a jump in arrests and prison sentences for those
accused of stirring ethnic divisions in regions such as the Xinjiang,
the Uighur Muslim province in the west. Independent labor organizers
have been jailed.