Sunday, March 9, 2008

Another First at Fifty

It seems like yesterday, it was a summer afternoon, Eric was attending summer school, finishing up his last class to get his degree, when I called him on his cell and told him; “I just spent over $30 to fill my gas tank.” Now at 50 years old, I am telling everyone who reads my Blog. It was a winter afternoon; “I just spent over $50 to fill my gas tank.” OMG I don’t drive a Suburban either, a cute metallic green Mazda Six station wagon. The best car I have ever owned. I wish I had a picture of when I filled my car for the first time in October 1974.

I hate to do this but, I have BIG news for my post tomorrow afternoon.

I can remember the shock all over the country in the 1970s when gas first went over $0.50 per gallon. We had an "energy crisis" complete with gasoline rationing. Cars stretched in long lines down the street to get whatever they could of a gas station's quota. RVs disappeared, and everybody wanted to buy a Datsun B210 or a Honda Civic. Mopeds were everywhere, and people actually did pedal them most of the time. Everyone wondered what we would do when gasoline topped *gasp* a buck a gallon. "Experts" were predicting that by the late eighties or early nineties, no fossil fuels would be available at any price.

It's different this time. You can get all you want if you are willing to pay $3.40 per gallon. You can use a credit card right at the pump, which means that irresponsible people don't even have to pay for it. In the 1970s, if I rode a bicycle, I was a conscientious money-saving, fuel-conserving American. If I ride one today, even if I stay between the white lines of my specially-painted bike lane, I am a road hazard, because the SUVs have to slow down to 60 mph to pass me.

I hate to say this for fear of getting many blog-remarks thrown back at me, but maybe what Americans need is a significant rise in gas prices (she ducks to avoid rotten tomatoes being launched at her). But think about it--people will not change their wasteful habits unless their pocketbooks are hit hard. We are a smart nation; we easily could have developed better cars with better gas mileage. Instead we came up with the SUV. "The bigger, the better!" Back in 1956, just before GEL-oh was born, M.King Hubbert predicted a peak in US oil production by the late 1960's. US production peaked in 1970. He went a bit further, predicting a global peak in production around 2006. We really can't tell about the 2006 estimate quite yet because we have to get a few years past it in order to see a peak in retrospect, but he was right about the US peak in the 70's. (And the recent rise in prices could be a second clue!) He also said that the prediction depended on OPEC's actions; they could cause the peak to flatten for about a decade. But we are in trouble; we need alternative energy to sustain our life styles. Best thing for us is to develop new energies while changing our habits. JW bikes to work, about 10 miles one way. He saves a lot of gas and gets a lot of exercise!