2011 Fantasy Football: Mailbag

There will be many more 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings and features in the late spring and summer, including tons of 2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts and Player Rankings. I'll also have an extensive 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Preseason Stock Report. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

I don't think Schaub is going to have a great fantasy season. Wade Phillips will really improve Houston's defense, and if that's the case, then Schaub's attempts will be down. That's my thinking behind slotting Schaub No. 12 anyway.

For the five billionth time, Cassel is going to struggle without Charlie Weis. Kansas City will also have a much more difficult schedule, so that will also play a part in Cassel's decline.

I don't hate the guy. He's just not that good.

From Matt:

Your hate on Vick continues. The guy was nearly the highest scoring QB last year and he played in only 10 full games! You always talk about the 50-point game about the Redskins, but even ignoring that game he averaged 30 PPG in the final six games he played. He is the #1 Fantasy QB. And if he plays even just 12 full games this year he will easily be the highest scoring QB. I love your website, but you are letting his personal actions cloud your opinion of what he can do on the field.

--> I have QB Dog Killer missing several games this year. That's one thing. Also, he just turned 31, so it's not unreasonable to expect him to lose some of his quickness and elusiveness.

When I draft a quarterback early, I want to count on him being in the lineup all 16 games. I can say that for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and probably Aaron Rodgers. I can't say that for Philadelphia's beloved dog-drowner.

From mrm27:

Walter, do you realize how few QBs have thrown 30 TDs and 10 or fewer INTs in the history of the NFL over a 16 game season? I think it is 3 (McNabb in 04, Brady in 2010 and Favre's first Vikings year). Let's watch our projections.

--> I assume you're referring to my Philip Rivers' 30-10 projection. Rivers went 34-11 in 2008, 28-9 in 2009 and 30-13 in 2010 - and four of those 13 picks in 2010 came late when the Chargers were out of the playoff picture.

Are you telling me it's impossible that Rivers can go 30-10? If so, I disagree. Hell, Matt Cassel went 27-7 last year, and he's not nearly as good as Rivers.

Walter-I understand your position that Charles' #s will go down now that Weis has left the team. But he also had great numbers in the second half of 09 when Weis wasn't there. Thanks for everything you do, it's all great

--> That's a good point, Stephane, but Jamaal Charles has to share touches with Thomas Jones. And Todd Haley, for whatever reason, has a fetish for inexplicably using Jones over Charles. For example, Haley stripped Charlie Weis of his play-calling duties in the second half of Kansas City's postseason loss to Baltimore. When Haley called the plays, Charles had just one touch - this in one-and-a-half quarters of action.

Haley is an idiot, so I don't want him ruining my fantasy season by senselessly giving the ball to Jones again.

From Double Down:

Arian Foster is iffy as No.1 They need to resign Leach or else he drops out of the top 5.

--> Agreed. That's going to be huge. Vonta Leach is the best blocking fullback in the NFL. If he's not retained, Arian Foster won't be nearly as good as he was in 2010.

From Robert Dixie:

"I'm a big fan of Rashard Mendenhall this year even though he belongs in a mental health facility. " Yeah, Mendenhall reads books and stuff and believes people should think for themselves. Let's lock all those people up. Good thinking, Mao.

--> Thanks! I just read some books myself, and I've come to the conclusion that traffic lights in the United States are blue, purple and orange. Also, I believe that all giraffes are fluent in Japanese. Now, before you call me crazy, I must remind you that I'm thinking for myself here, so don't lock me up in a mental health facility for believing all of this.

From Funk:

I am amazed to see BJGE below Woodhead but have to assume it is due to receptions. Belichick is a nut when it comes to RBs becausehis team simply does not require him to be concerned with them

--> I really have no clue what to do with New England's running backs. I assume Danny Woodhead will still be a big part of the offense because Tom Brady loved utilizing him, but I don't know what to make of the Shane Vereen-Stevan Ridley-BenJarvus Green-Ellis time share. I hope we get a full preseason so I can get a sense of how Bill Belichick plans on utilizing his billion running backs.

--> Jonathan Stewart will be much higher than Tier 5 if DeAngelo Williams leaves Carolina. This is just a safe ranking just in case Williams stays with the Panthers.

From Satan:

Charles is now ahead of Gore, but Gore could easily end up being a top-3 RB this year. That injury last year was a fluke, and isn't the type of thing that'll linger or limit his explosion this year.

--> Maybe that injury was a fluke. But Frank Gore is ALWAYS hurt. You can't rely on him. Yes, if he stays healthy, he's a top-three fantasy running back. But even dating back to his college days, Gore has always found a way to be on the injury report.

From James:

So, you would rather have the THIRD running back of the Cowboys (Murray) over Mike Thomas, a #1 WR? Indeed ...

--> Are you sure Mike Thomas is going to be the No. 1 receiver after free agency? Also, the Jaguars are really going to suck this year, so while I like Thomas as a player, I don't want anything to do with him in fantasy football.

And who called DeMarco Murray the third running back? Jason Garrett hates Tashard Choice, so Murray could be the No. 2 runner by the opener. And considering how fragile Felix Jones is, Murray could have lots of playing time this year.

People who call you crazy for having Jordy Nelson over Boldin, Ochocinco, and Sanatana Moss aren't living in 2005, they are living in 2010. Each one of them greatly outperformed Nelson last year.

--> Ask any 2010 Anquan Boldin owner how it felt to own Boldin in the final half of the year, when Boldin averaged 35.4 yards and scored two touchdowns in the final nine weeks of the season. Or Chad Ochocinco's owners, and his 50.9 yards per week and two touchdowns in his final eight contests.

Succeeding in fantasy football is all about projecting for the future; not looking at the previous year's results and expecting the same thing to happen again. Beginning in Week 16 (4-124-TD), Jordy Nelson had an incredible run to close out the season. As the clear-cut No. 2 wideout in an explosive offense, he's going to post huge numbers. Boldin and Ochocinco, meanwhile, are washed up. As for Santana Moss, he's getting old and non-elite receivers struggle on new teams. Just ask Boldin.

The bottom line - if you draft like you're living in the past, you have no chance at winning your league.

From DH:

Hey walt, I've done a few mock drafts where matt forte was taken before steven jackson. I think forte could have a huge season next year, but I'm a Bears fan so I'm biased. Are people just stupid for taking forte first or does it have some merit?

--> I have Steven Jackson ahead of Matt Forte, but I definitely don't think it would be crazy to consider the latter. Some people are speculating that Jackson is finished and could begin to decline in 2011. I personally think Jackson has one more top-level year left in the tank, but it wouldn't shock me to see him fall off.

If Jackson doesn't decline, however, I'd be surprised if Forte out-produced him. Jackson is going to be in an explosive offense and will be in position to score lots of touchdowns.

From Pack Fan Sully:

Someone should tell Walt that Jennings has been working out with Fitzgarald the last 2 or 3 seasons

--> That's even better then! The more time spent with Larry Fitzgerald, the better. It's good to see Greg Jennings take some initiative and work hard to become one of the top receivers in the NFL.