When China’s champion 10-meter platform diver suffered a detached retina
while training, a year after winning a gold medal in the 2004 Athens
Olympics, family members and fans speculated about the imminent end of a
great career.

The parents of the diver,
Hu Jia, had surrendered him to trainers from the Chinese sports
establishment at the age of 10, and had seen little of him since then. In an
interview with a Chinese newspaper after the diver’s injury, his father
suggested that this was sacrifice enough. Had he known his son risked
blindness, the father said, “I would never have sent him off to dive.”

But less than two months before China hosts the Olympics for the first
time, Mr. Hu is training and competing fiercely again, aiming to bolster a
national diving squad that China hopes will dominate the sport this summer.

“The Beijing Olympics is an enormous glory to our generation,” Mr. Hu,
whose other retina was also injured, was quoted in the Chinese media as
saying last year. Speaking of another gold medal, he added, “I will do my
utmost to grab one, unless my eyes are really blind.”

...

Hu Jia, the gold medal diver, for example, was born to laid-off workers
in Hubei Province in central China. When he was 6 years old, his parents
piled quilts on the ground, then let him jump from a bed to practice diving.
Three years later, he was spotted by a former diver and sent to train with a
coach in Guangdong, where he made the provincial team. He was considered
relatively untalented by coaches and mocked by the public as a perpetual
also-ran before the 2004 Games. But he distinguished himself through
unrelenting hard work, eventually beating out the favorite, Tian Liang, for
a gold.

Although a spot on this year’s squad is no sure thing, he has shown the
same determination in working his way back from injury, forgoing anesthesia
during eye surgery because he hoped it would speed recovery. “There are so
many difficulties, surgery and injuries on the road, but I have to keep up
to the last,” he told a newspaper in Wuhan.

Oh, wait, but we just read in Danwei
on June 10th: Chinese media reports say diver Hu Jia, who won gold in the
men’s 10-meter platform at the 2004 Olympics, will not compete in Beijing
due to injuries.

Is Hu Jia in? or out? If you click on the New York Timeslink to
Hu Jia to find out more, you will reach ...

On June 19, the popular Taiwan TV show <Kongxi Is Coming> drew curses
from mainland Chinese netizens. On the latest episode shown on June 18
and uploaded onto the Internet, there was a female guest Xiang Ying who
brought along pink pyjamas as well as a white t-shirt with a Free Tibet flag
on it. Xiang Ying explained that she had been wearing the t-shirt for
three or four years at home. Only when the t-shirt was really worn out
did she go and purchase the pink pyjamas. The two hosts -- Little S
and Tsai Kang-yung -- just stared blankly at the t-shirt without comment.

Some Chinese netizens are now demanding that all of the aforementioned
entertainers be banned forthwith. Some said that they used to think
Little S and Tsai Kang-yung were smart and wise, but now that they have
committee such a dumb error, they should not be allowed to be shown again.
Another netizen said that this incident showed that the program had no
oversight over what the guests wear. Yet another netizen said that
Little S and Tsai Kang-yu should be made to apologize for severely hurting
the feelings of the people.

The mainland tourists are about to arrive en masse in Taiwan. Some
tourist guides are saying that "FLG members have identified the spots where
the mainland tourists will visit and they will push their 'anti-Communist'
propaganda to the disgust of the visitors." Therefore, they hope that
the police will stop the FLG. According to one tourist guide, there
are six to seven FLG members outside the Chiang Kai-shek Shihlin Official
Residence every morning. Whenever a tourist bus arrives, they rush up
to the mainland tourists with placards in hand, chanting slogans and
thrusting flyers into the hands. "This just about ruined all the joy."
This is not just at the Shihlin Official Residence, but it is also true at
other hot tourist spots such as the National Palace Museum, the Sunmoon
Lake, AliShan Mountain, Sizihwan Bay and so on. This tourist guide
said, "They have freedom of speech, but shouldn't we have the freedom not to
be disturbed or harassed?"

According to the Taipei City police, it is not an illegal assembly to
practice meditation in front of the Shihlin Official Residence. At
most, the police can try "moral persuasion" to solve the bad impression of
"pushy salesmanship." The police cannot oust them by force.

Mainland China has more magnificent views and ancient buildings that
Taiwan cannot match; Hong Kong can probably provide better gourmet and
shopping experiences. But Taiwan has a maturing democracy with high
tolerance for multicultural diversity and dissident voices. In Taiwan,
the "Red Army" can march in the streets to protest against Ah Bian; the talk
show hosts can discuss politics on air; all types of speeches have their
spaces for expression. For the people of Taiwan, FLG holding up
banners and passing out flyers are no different from the other people
passing out various advertisements in the street. As long as this is
not forced sales or violent interference, it is protected under freedom of
speech.

P.S. The Ministry of Transportation is training tourist bus drives on
manners. They want every driver to "smile as lovingly and sincerely as
Lin Chiling" to greet the mainland tourists. They need to practice
that 1,200 times.

[031] Taiwan By The
Numbers (06/20/2008) (UDN)
(807 persons interviewed on June 18-19 by telephone. The telephone numbers
were randomly selected from the telephone residential directory and then the
last two digits were randomized. There were 359 refusals.)

Approval for the job performance of President Ma Ying-jeou50%: Satisfied (66% on May 20)
30%: Dissatisfied (10% on May 20)

Approval for Premier Liu Chao-shiuan43%: Satisfied
33%: Dissatisfied

Approval for the cabinet in general42%: Satisfied
35%: Dissatisfied

[030] Taiwan By The
Numbers (06/20/2008) (TVBS)
(1,076 Taiwan residents age 20 or over were interviewed on June 16-17 by
telephone. The telephone numbers were selected randomly from the telephone
directory and then the last four digits were randomized.)

Q1. President Ma Ying-jeou has been in office for one month.
How satisfied are you with his performance? (corresponding numbers for
4/29/2008) 8% (12%): Very satisfied
33% (40%): Somewhat satisfied
20% (13%): Somewhat dissatisfied
17% ( 4%): Very dissatisfied
21% (31%): No opinion

Q3. Premier Liu Chao-shiuan has been in office for one month. How
satisfied are you with his performance? 7%: Very satisfied
31%: Somewhat satisfied
27%: Somewhat dissatisfied
16%: Very dissatisfied

Q4. Overall, how satisfied are you with the performance of the cabinet? 4%: Very satisfied
31%: Somewhat satisfied
29%: Somewhat dissatisfied
18%: Very dissatisfied

Q5. Overall, do you feel that President Ma Ying-jeou is taking our
nation in to the right or wrong direction?54%: Right direction
17%: Wrong direction
29%: No opinion

Q6. How satisfied are you with how Premier Liu handled the "green card"
affair? 7%: Very satisfied
29%: Somewhat satisfied
24%: Somewhat dissatisfied
22%: Very dissatisfied
19%: No opinion

Q7. How satisfied are you with how the government is handling the
problem of rising prices? 5%: Very satisfied
26%: Somewhat satisfied
26%: Somewhat dissatisfied
32%: Very dissatisfied
11%: No opinion

Q8. How satisfied are you with how the government is handling
cross-strait relations?22%: Very satisfied
38%: Somewhat satisfied
15%: Somewhat dissatisfied
11%: Very dissatisfied
14%: No opinon

Q9. How satisfied are you with the government is handling the ship
collision incident at the Diaoyutai Islets? 8%: Very satisfied
30%: Somewhat satisfied
22%: Somewhat dissatisfied
23%: Very dissatisfied
18%: No opinion

Q10. Generally speaking, how would you rate the crisis management skills
of the government? 5%: Very good
31%: Good
32%: Not very good
19%: Very poor
13%: No opinion

Q11. Do you think that President Ma Ying-jeou will become better? worse?
the same? in the future?54%: Better
9%: Worse
22%: The same as now
14%: No opinion

Q12. President Ma Ying-jeou has been in office for one month.
Do you think that the Ma team is ready to govern?21%: Ready
66%: Not ready
13%: No opinion

Q13. Overall, who would you say has the better performance in
governance?49%: Nationalists (KMT) are better
17%: Democratic Progressive Party are better
17%: About the same
17%: No opinion

Q14. Do you think that the performance of the government has been
better, worse or the same compared to what you thought when you voted in March
this year?11%: Better
42%: Worse
41%: About the same
7%: No opinion

[029] Who Wants To
Stop <Kung Fu Panda>? (06/19/2008) In Kung Fu Panda,
Go Home!, some netizens want to see the State Administration for
Radio, Film and Television rescind the exhibition permit for Steven Spielberg's
<Kung Fu Panda> in China. Upon further examination, the top signee for the
petition is none other than the man known as "Panda Man" Zhao Bandi, who has a
fashion line based upon the national treasure of the panda and therefore has a
clear interest in not wanting any dilution of his brand image. Here are
some photos
from the Bandi fashion show, which include the (in)famous Furong Jiejie:

Even though I have been a journalist for 10 years, most of the time I did
not believe in the power of journalism. I and many of my colleagues
have written many reports that went unpublished for various reasons.
Sometimes the reports were published but they could not alter reality.
The sun still rises as usual, the victims keep crying and those who ought to
be punished continue to live comfortably. Can journalism empower the
powerless? This was my frustration and perplexity a lot of times.

My persistent perplexity underwent a fundamental transformation on May
17, 2008. On the fifth day after the Wenchuan earthquake took place, I
and some volunteers arrived at the Bridge of Isolation in Qingping village,
Hanwang town, Mianzhu city, Deyang City. Qingping town was one of the
four towns that the rescue teams from Deyang City were unable to reach at
the time. This bridge may have a quaintly poetic name, but I saw
nothing poetic as I stood on it. The tremor had completely destroyed
the road that led from the bridge up to the mountains. The Bridge of
Isolation was the boundary between two worlds -- on the other side of the
bridge, there were dozens of mountains where thousands of miners from the
Chuanlong Company, Longmang Company, the Qingping Phosphorous Mine Company,
and other companies worked. It has been five days since the
earthquake. All communication was broken. The fate of several
thousand people remained unknown.

I was surrounded by at least thirty to forty family members of these
miners. The sound of their crying is still whirling inside my head.
I think that everyone can understand the helplessness and sorrow when your
own family is missing. It was Elder Sister Ma Yongfang who left the
deepest impression on me. Her husband Jiang Mingquan is a police
officer with the Hanwang public security bureau. His specialty was
dynamite detonator management. Since there are many phosphorous mines
in Qingping town that required explosions regularly, he is often up in the
mountains. On May 12, he was also in the mountain. Fortunately,
he took a satellite telephone with him. Within the first two to three
days after the earthquake, he called Ma Yongfang several times to tell her
to ask for help. Ma Yongfang looked up the public security bureau
director, who said: "Please be reassured that we will rescue old Jiang."
Ma Yongfang said that the last time Jiang called, their daughter had picked
up the phone. Jiang told his daughter: "Please tell mom to get people
to save dad. Dad has no food to eat." After that, the phone went
dead.

At around 4pm, May 17, Ma Yongfang was so filled with sorrow in front of
me that it was as if Jiang Mingquan had left her forever already. She
held my hand as her tears fell upon it. My heart was in pain.
She said that she realized that roads were blocked. Although the
rescue team was trying to repair the road, it is estimated that it could
take months, or even as long as one year, to get finish the job. "The
important right now is to get food and water to them, or else they will
starve to death. Please beg the army to airdrop! Please, please,
please!" She was crying as her words turned incoherent at this time.

At that moment, I really wished that I had the flower key of the female
character Xiaobpei in <The Flower Fairy> -- by holding the key up to a
flower and meditating, the flower can be transformed into a person with
special skills, such as a pilot.

Then there was a disturbance ahead. The family members dispersed
quickly and raced in that direction. I followed them. I saw a
group of people surrounding two persons who had obviously traveled a long
distance. The people kept passing mineral water, sausages and
other food to them.

These two men have just returned from hell to earth. They were the miners
Liu Zibing and Zhu Yunjiu from Mine 2145 of the Longmang Group. After
the earthquake, they began to walk downhill on May 13. After five days
and four nights and eating only some dried rice plus leaves from trees, they
managed to reach safety. "Did you see my husband?" A miner's
family member shook the shoulders of Zhu Yunjiu. "I don't know know if
he is dead or alive!" She kept crying and almost fainted.

According to Liu Zibing and Zhu Yunjiu, there were more than 1,000 people
walking downhill. In the end, only 13 made it out. They were the
first two to bring the news out. There were one to two thousand people
still trapped in the quake lake that was formed after the earthquake.
The lake stretched two to three thousand meters long. These people had
used the wood from the lumber factory to build a raft in order to move out.
I immediately called my newspaper's frontline news team's commander Deng Ke.
We discussed briefly, and we decided to publish the information that several
thousand people are still trapped immediately on the newspaper website. I hung
up the telephone. Five minutes later, my colleague Huang Jinping from
the Southern Weekend website called me back. Based upon my oral
narration and Jinping's notes, the report <Airdrop,
speedboats, hurry up! A thousand Longmang miners in Mianwhu city
waiting for rescue> was posted at 16:51:43, May 17, 2008.

On the afternoon of May 18, I and the volunteers returned to the Bridge
of Isolation. Helicopters passed over our heads periodically. Each
time that the family members saw the helicopters passing by, they asked:
"Are the helicopters here to rescue them? When will they be rescued?"
I always replied: "The helicopters have come to rescue them. They will
be rescued soon."

Even as I said that, I was unsure inside. Before I came over here, I
had called the Sichuan Military District Earthquake Relief Frontline Command
Center in my capacity as a Southern Weekend reporter. I forwarded the
facts about a thousand miners still being trapped and I asked them to send out
helicopters to airdrop food. But I was not fully confident about the
results.

On May 20, I called Ma Yongfang again. There was crying again on the
other side of the telephone, but she said: "Thank you, Comrade Reporter. My husband
and many others were rescued. On May 18, the helicopters airdropped
food. Later on, the helicopters airlifted them out. Right now, my
husband is organizing people to rescue others."

I had not slept well for several days and nights, and I had a case of
blood-shot eyes. At that moment, my eyes got even redder.

The overall rating for the Ma Ying-jeou government was 59.6. This is
based upon a score of 0 to 100, with 60.0 being common regarding as the
passing grade.

44.2% were dissatisfied with the performance of the administration over
all.
- 44.4% were dissatisfied with the job performance of the Premier (47.5% were
satisfied)
- 53.5% were dissatisfied with 'reviving the economy'
- 63.6% were dissatisfied with 'stabilizing daily living prices'
- 44.1% were dissatisfied with 'increasing social welfare benefits'
- 53.7% were dissatisfied with 'handling of the Green Card affair'
- 59.7% were dissatisfied with 'handling of flooding disaster in
central/southern Taiwan'

When asked who was the best cabinet minister, the Government Information
Office received 5.6%, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs got 4.0%, the Ministry
of Legal Affairs got 3.3%, and 68.4% did not respond.

When asked who was the worst cabinet minister, 13.5% picked the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, 13.1% picked the Ministry of Defense, 3.7% picked the
Ministry of Agricultural Affairs.

[025] China Times Cuts
Back Staff (06/18/2008) (UDN)
Taiwan's China Times has been operating for almost 58 years.
Yesterday it announced a huge cutback in staff. About 500 to 600 staff
members will be laid off, and that is about 50% of the current payroll.
The newspaper will also cut back from its current 13 sheets to 10 sheets with
the elimination of the local editions.

The reason for these cutbacks is that advertising revenues have been
decreasing over time. The causes for the revenue drops are the Internet and competitors
(especially Apple Daily). Could China Times remodel itself to compete
with Apple Daily? Well, here is the lead social story in Apple Daily
today. Remember, it is worse to go half way only because you will lose
your core audience now and you won't win any new audience. In fact, you
need to go beyond Apple Daily (as if this is possible)!

(Apple
Daily) At a Taipei County public primary school, a physical
training teacher demanded the students to perform certain physical exercises.
Anyone who failed to perform properly was punished. The punishment was
administered by a clothespin. The females had the clothespin applied to
their nipples while the males had the clothespin applied to their penises.
The school reckons that the teacher acted inappropriately but did not believe
that this was sexual harassment. The teacher denies doing anything of
the sort, but admits to applying the clothespin to the face, hair, clothing
and pants of the students. The teacher has applied to leave the school at which he has
taught for more than 20 years.

Ever since I stated on CCTV9 on May 14 that the absence of a warning
about the Wenchuan earthquake showed that the "China Earthquake
Administration had unavoidable responsibility," I have been
interviewed by mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and French reporters.
I have received their published reports and broadcasts which were accurate.
But I have also seen other reports that contained inaccurate information.

There is a broadly circulated report which claimed that "for three years
since 2006, the Natural Disaster Prediction Committee has issued three
predictions about a possible strong earthquake in the Wenchuan area.
In particular, Chen Yiwen personally handed a prediction about a possible
Wenchuan earthquake to the Earthquake Administration.

1) On April 26, 2006, the combined opinion of the committee was
that there may be a magnitude 7 or higher in western China. The major
areas at risk are the Ganzi and Aba Tibetan Autonomous Regions (Batang,
Mayikong, Hongyuan and Ruo'ergai) in western Sichuan.

2) On April 23, 2007, the combined opinion was that there may be a
magnitude 7.5 or so earthquake in 2007. The major areas at risk are
the Ganzi and Aba Tibetan Autonomous Regions (Batang, Mayikong, Hongyuan and
Ruo'ergai) in western Sichuan.

3) On April 30, 2008, the combined opinion was that in the course of the
12 twelve months, attention to be paid to a possible 6-7 magnitude
earthquake south of Lanzhou down to the border between Sichuan, Gansu and
Qinghai provincies.

These prediction reports were sent via registered mail to the China
Earthquake Bureau in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Chen Yiwen did not
personally hand over anything as such.

During this period, I declined to be interviewed by certain overseas
media. For example, a Radio Free Asia reporter named Ji Lisi based in
Hong Kong contacted me by email and telephone to ask for an interview.
I screened around and found that RFA was publishing propaganda on behalf of
Tibet independence elements. I also found out that RFA was distorting,
smearing and rumor mongering about politics, economics, society, culture,
the state of the reforms and the developmental trends of China, and also
inciting its audience to be dissatisfied with the current government ..."
As a result, I replied to them on May 31: "A Google search showed that Radio
Free Asia is of 'ill repute'" and I suggested that they visit the Cheniwan
website (http://cheniwan.sea3000.net). I also explained that "the
material will help to explain my political position to you and why I could
not accept your request for an interview."

A while ago, another American radio station named Dajiyuan contacted me
for an interview. As soon I heard the name Dajiyuan, I immediately
declined.

... I want to state the following clearly: Ever since I began to be
interviewed by many overseas publication and television channels, I have
never received any warning, pressure or restrictions directly or indirectly
from the Chinese government ...

Each year, the Natural Disaster Prediction Committee issues earthquake
predictions around the end of April. In 2006 and 2007, the areas at
risk are the Ganzi and Aba Tibetan Autonomous Regions (Batang, Mayikong,
Hongyuan and Ruo'ergai) in western Sichuan. This is a vast area, but
none of the four counties experienced earthquakes. So they guessed
wrong. If they had continued with the same in 2008, they could have
argued that they got it right because some of the counties are in the Aba
Prefecture along with Wenchuan county. Unfortunately, they changed
their prediction in 2008 and went even further away to "south of Lanzhou
down to the border of Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai."

After careful consideration,
I have decided to formally announce the end of my involvement as one of the
overseas artistic advisors to the opening and closing ceremonies of the
Beijing Olympic Games.

In anticipation that this day
might one day come, I left unsigned the Beijing Organizing Committee for the
Olympic Games contract presented to me nearly a year ago. Since that time, I
have made repeated efforts to encourage the Chinese government to use its
unique influence to bring safety and stability to the Darfur region of
Sudan. Although some progress has been made along the way, most notably, the
passage of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1769, the situation in
Darfur continues to worsen and the violence continues to accelerate.

With this in mind, I find
that my conscience will not allow me to continue with business as usual. At
this point, my time and energy must be spent not on Olympic ceremonies, but
on doing all I can to help bring an end to the unspeakable crimes against
humanity that continue to be committed in Darfur. Sudan’s government bears
the bulk of the responsibility for these on-going crimes but the
international community, and particularly China, should be doing more to end
the continuing human suffering there. China’s economic, military and
diplomatic ties to the government of Sudan continue to provide it with the
opportunity and obligation to press for change. The situation has never been
more precarious – and while China’s representatives have conveyed to me that
they are working to end the terrible tragedy in Darfur, the grim realities
of the suffering continue unabated.

This has been a very
difficult decision for me, as I have cherished the relationships with my
Chinese counterparts, in particular, the noted director Zhang Yimou, who is
a close personal friend. I have learned a great deal from working with him
and all the other creative artists along the way. There is little that is
more rewarding than to collaborate with those who bring vision and
imagination to a challenging artistic task. And I greatly appreciated the
spirit in which we worked together - a spirit that embodied genuine
friendship and respect.

For me, the Olympic Games
represent an ideal of brotherhood designed to bridge cultural and political
divides. I am committed to building bridges between peoples and I saw, and
continue to see, the Beijing Games as an opportunity to help ease some of
the tensions in the world.

China has much to offer the
world and I have no doubt that its international contributions will grow in
the years ahead. With growing influence, however, also comes growing
responsibilities. As China welcomes the world to Beijing for the 2008
Olympic Games, I hope to be among those in attendance; and it is also my
great hope that, with renewed and intensified efforts from China, there will
be peace and security in Darfur at last.

Official response from China's embassy in Washington D.C.: "As
the Darfur issue is neither an internal issue of China, nor is it caused by
China, it is completely unreasonable, irresponsible and unfair for certain
organizations and individuals to link the two as one."

To the dearest leaders of the State Administration of Radio, Film and
Television:

As Chinese citizens, we firmly oppose the exhibition of the Hollywood movie
<Kung Fu Panda> in China as of June 20. The reasons are as follows:

Hollywood is the kind of place whose style and values create large numbers
of people like Sharon Stone. She was the female actress who claimed that
the earthquake in China was "karma." Not only was she not criticized by
the "department unit," her "aura" was shining bright instead.
Hollywood is the type of place which lovingly applaud the arrogance, hypocrisy
and vileness of Sharon Stone. Only in an amoral place like Hollywood can
Sharon Shone gain in popularity via a moral lapse.

So this Hollywood is not stopping at exploiting and rejoining at the the
disaster in China. It is now coming to dig gold in post-disaster China.

As Chinese ciizens, we want to borrow the words of the CNN host to assess
what Hollywood has been doing: It has been the same old thing for several
decades. Hollywood has always been a cultural thug and a cultural thief!

We feel that the Chinese are too tolerant. Often, compatriots look at
problems "from the viewpoints of others" and thus forgive people like Sharon
Stone. This seems tolerant, but it is actually ambivalent to the point
of being shameful! We firmly believe that an honest person can have only
one angle.

It is necessary to point out that the producer of <Kung Fu Panda> is none
other than Steven Spielberg, the Dreamworks boss who announced a boycott of
the Beijing Olympics. You must know that under his machinations, the
voices against the Beijing Olympics grew noisier and noisier.

If <Kung Fu Panda> is exhibited in China, it will be handing over the
hard-earned money of the Chinese people into the pockets of this person.
The hypocritical Hollywood used the pretense of "aspiration" to create an
old-fashioned American-style inspirational story, but its true target is still
people's money.

This one is worse because the money-grubbing gimmickry stole China's
"national treasure" (note: the panda) and "kung fu" and then came to China to
grab its share of money in post-earthquake China.
We cannot welcome a Hollywood that is relishing the Chinese earthquake!

We cannot allow the anti-Beijing Olympics Spielberg to stuff money into his
pocket!

Therefore, we firmly oppose the showing of <Kung Fu Panda> in China!e hope
that the leaders of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television
make a decisive choice to stop the exhibition of <Kung Fu Panda> in China.

[021] How Many Lives Are Saved By
Early Earthquake Warning System? (06/17/2008)

(Kazinform)
Shaky start for new quake alert system in Japan. June 1, 2008.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s early-warning system gathers data
from a series of a thousand seismographs across Japan—200 operated by the
agency and another 800 used by the National Institute for Earth Science and
Disaster Prevention.
The seismic stations measure the intensity of a quake's primary wave, or
P-wave, which travels through rock at about 4.3 miles (7 kilometers) a
second. This data gets sent automatically to the agency. Scientists
can then use the P-wave to determine the scale of the quake's secondary
wave, or S-wave. This wave moves slower—about 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) a
second—but is what causes damage at the surface. Prerecorded alerts
are automatically broadcast on television and radio and are electronically
transmitted to municipal governments, hospitals, construction sites, and
railway operators. The agency issues a warning only if the quake is
predicted to be at level 5 or higher on the Omori Seismic Intensity Scale,
the seven-point scale used widely in Japan.

Tetsuzo Fuyushiba, Japan's minister of land, infrastructure, and transport,
launched the warning system in October 2007 amid high hopes for its
effectiveness. But on January 27, 2008, a level 5 quake struck in the
early morning in Ishikawa Prefecture on Japan's northern coast; Kazinform
cites National Geographic News. No alert was issued, because the
early-warning system predicted the tremor would be a level 4. No injuries
were reported. And on April 29 the agency issued a warning to
residents of Okinawa Prefecture of a level 5.2 earthquake near the island of
Miyako Jima—some four seconds after a level 4 tremor had shaken the area.
Once again no one was injured, but school buildings and airport facilities
were damaged. The agency believes the warning went out late because
the quake's epicenter was very close to the island, so data on the seismic
waves didn't arrive at the agency in time.

The Real-Time Earthquake Information Consortium, a Tokyo-based nonprofit
organization, has estimated that the death toll from a major tremor can be
reduced by 25 percent if an area receives just a two-second warning.
That figure jumps to 80 percent if a five-second warning is given, enabling
people to take cover under tables, stand in doorways, or cover their heads
with cushions or bedding.

The world's first earthquake early warning system was used in Japan on
Saturday, giving residents a few seconds to prepare for aftershocks that
followed a strong quake. The warning system, launched in October,
kicked in for the quake in northern Japan, which registered 7.2 on the
Richter scale and struck at 8:43 am (2343 GMT). The Japan
Meteorological Agency said the first warning was issued four seconds after
seismic waves were first detected. But in Tokyo, some 500 kilometres
(300 miles) from the epicentre, an alert was flashed on public broadcaster
NHK moments before residents of the capital felt a tremor.

(KDnet)
Here are excerpts from the 32 surveillance cameras at a Chinese elementary
school at the moment when the Wenchuan earthquake. How many seconds
would those children need to get out safely?

[020] How Will The
Earthquake Affect The Chinese People (06/17/2008) Actually, I have
no idea. At the 6th Annual Chinese Internet Research Conference, Deborah
Fallows posed the question: "What
has China’s earthquake done to its internet?" There is still no
data yet as to what has happened. Deborah Fallows drew some Pew Internet
research data on how Americans cope with 9/11. Here is what I wrote about
9/11 at ZonaLatina.com:

On September 11, 2001, three airplanes were hijacked by
terrorists to attack the two World Trade Centers in New York City and the
Pentagon in Washington, DC. The death toll was about 3,000 people. This
series of events is the single largest concerted attack on US soil, right
along with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. The 9/11 events are made
all the more visible through the coverage of modern media, such as live
television broadcast of the collapse of the towers. As such, the impact on
the country are deep and wide.

Immediately after the attacks, domestic air flights were
stopped immediately for several days, for fear of further attacks.
Gradually, airplanes were allowed to fly again under additional security.
Air travel volume dropped precipitously, as businesses and citizens
curtailed traveling. According to the Travel Industry Association of
America, more than 500,000 travel-related industry workers lost their jobs
nationally. Other public places (malls, restaurants, movies theaters, etc)
also saw decreases in attendance in the immediate aftermath because they
represent potential targets for terrorist attacks.

There was a report that 30% of New Yorkers suffered
post-traumatic stress disorder over the next six months in the form of
sleeping disorders, nightmares, alienation/estrangement and depressions.
This is an unverifiable incidence since PTSD sufferers may not be aware.
Whether or not a person can be medically classified as such, there is no
denying that there are major psychological effects for many people. A
cataclysmic event has the psychological consequence of making us aware of
the fragility of our existence. This is a moment to gain perspective on
life and focus on those things that really matter. Most prominent is the
need to connect with loved ones. Patriotism, altruism and religious
spiritualism figure too.

For most Americans, these attacks appear to have come out of
the blue. The ensuing events were also volatile and unpredictable as
American troops were sent to Afghanistan and other related developments
unfolded between Pakistan and India, and between Israel and the Arab world.
Media usage increased as people sought to find out about the events,
understand the causes and monitor new developments. Unfortunately, higher
media usage does not necessarily translate to better understanding, given
that the President's explanations consisted of naive statements such as "Why
do they hate us so much? They hate our freedoms – our freedom of religion,
our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote..." and then "I'm amazed that
there's such misunderstanding of what our country is about that people would
hate us ... I just can't believe it because I know how good we are."

We will now cite some survey data from the 2002 MARS
study. This is a mail survey of 22,097 adults in the 50 states of the
USA conducted during January-March 2002. Within this survey, there is a
section that begins with the question: "Due to the tragic events of
September 11th, would you say that you are doing each of the following more,
less or no differently than you did prior to that date?" followed by a list
of activities. In the next chart, the survey results are displayed.

These survey results are consistent with our prior
discussion. Decreased activities are: traveling, dining out, going to
malls, going to movies/theaters; Increased activities are socializing,
family visits, spending time with children, religious activities, saving
money, donating to charity and usage of all types of media.

On a related note, here is a
Tianya Forum page that asks the question: How has the earthquake
change your lifestyle? Here are some sample answers:

I spend money more readily than before.

I treasure everything that I have right now.

I begin to care about other people.

I want to live well and enjoy life.

I have never realized before that the Chinese people are so united!
It is good to be alive today.

I have a lovely three-year-old daughter. Before the earthquake, I
would play with her and then I get annoyed and I go to read books or get
on the Internet. Nowadays I spend as much time with her as possible.
I only read books or get on the Internet only if she doesn't want to play
with me.

I don't want to buy a house anymore. I just wanted to be happy
and enjoy myself. Sooner or later, we'll all dead.

I'm more frugal than before. I have begun to plan my life.

I have changed. I love China ever more. I value the present
more.

I have changed. I'm sometimes passive but I'm active other times.
I behave weirdly to the point that I can't stand myself! I hope that
I can walk out of the shadows of the earthquake soon.

I have not changed at all! I still live on as before.

I'm changed. When I walk into the supermarket to shop, I check
first whether something is made in China.

I care about others. I donated money for the first time in my
life.

I am no longer against Japanese goods, especially those brands that
donated money to us. When I buy stuff, I start paying attention to
the brand name and I prefer those which donated money.

I'm more frugal. I'm not picky on food anymore. When I
think of the hardship of the disaster victims, I know that any food that I
can have will be better than theirs.

I didn't drink Wanglaoji herbal tea much before, but now I only drink
Wanglaoji everywhere I go.

Certain human rights advocates in mainland China are organizing a motion
to the National People's Congress for establishing a special investigative
committee to hold hearings about the Sichuan earthquake. The goal is
to determine whether the State Earthquake Administration leaders are guilty
of dereliction of duty and covering up. According to information, this
petition by human rights advocates is the next big one after the petition on
the 3.14 Tibet disturbances. The four persons who started the call are
Zhao Yan (New York Times Beijing bureau researcher), Yu Meisun (former State
Council Legal System Office official), Wang Jun (former senior editor at the
overseas edition of People's Daily) and Zheng Xianli (Internet scholar).
More people are signing up.

The State Earthquake Administration has declined to comment on media
reports about possible dereliction of duty and cover-ups. According to
those who are starting this campaign, the Chinese people should get to learn
the truth. Therefore, they ask the National People's Congress to
listen to the evidence about whether the State Earthquake Administration was
derelict in its duties and choose a "do-nothing" policy. Such a
process is in accordance with the Constitutions, the Laws of Organization of
the National People's Congress and the Rules and Regulations on Openness in
Government Information. By holding the State Earthquake Bureau to
account, this will ensure that the tragedy will not occur again.

The motion pointed out that the State Earthquake Administration should
answer the following questions to this National People's Congress special
investigative committee. (1) Was former State Administration
Bureau chief Chen Jianmin on duty when the Wenchuan earthquake occurred?
(2) Did the former State Administration Bureau chief receive any
predictions about the Wenchuan earthquake before May 12? (3) Did
the Chinese Geophysical Society's Natural Catastrophe Prediction Committee
file a relevant prediction report to the State Earthquake Administration?
(4) Did the two researchers Geng Qingguo and Chen Yiwen of the said
committee file prediction reports to the State Earthquake Administration?
(5) Why did the State Earthquake Administration cover up the
aforementioned information after the Wenchuan earthquake?

[018] 6th Annual
Chinese Internet Research Conference - Part 2 (06/16/2008) The 6th
Annual Chinese Internet Research Conference took place on June 13-14 at the
University of Hong Kong campus. On the first day, I gave a talk titled "A
Psychographic Segment of Chinese Bloggers." Since there is no published
paper or PowerPoint presentation, I will summarize the key findings here.

This paper is premised upon that human groups consist of individuals who
maintain their individualities. As such, it is wrong to lump all Chinese
bloggers into one undifferentiated mass. For example, some people have
characterized Chinese bloggers as "... more political, volatile, aggressive
and ever ready to trigger 'human flesh search engines' to get someone fired
from their jobs as well as ruining their families ..." Supposedly, the
Chinese bloggers have no other medium to express personal opinions and
therefore they funnel their entire rage through the Internet. Other
people have suggested that Chinese bloggers are "... more apolitical,
repressed, cynical, passive, interested only in amusement ..." The only
thing for certain is that these two characterizations cannot both be true
within the same individual. However, these two characterizations can be
consistent under the assumption that there are in fact different kinds of
Chinese bloggers out there.

It is usually hard to create a proper segmentation of Chinese bloggers due
to the lack of appropriate data. Internet surveys are unrepresentative
of the blogger population as a whole. A general population survey would
require huge sample sizes because the incidence of Chinese bloggers is very
small. The following has the results from a segmentation from a
large-sample general population survey.

Bloggers can be segmented by demographics (e.g. by age, gender, education,
socio-economic status). They can be segmented by Internet/blogger
behavior, quantitatively (such as by the number of hours spent or the
frequency of blog posting) or qualitatively (such as news versus entertainment
blogging). But here we will be segmenting by psychographics (namely,
values, attitudes and lifestyles).

For this presentation, I created a 3-segment solution based upon 32
psychographic statements about personality, motivation, society, culture,
technology and so on by the K-means algorithm. Here are the
characterizations of these segments:

Segment 1: Not interested in latest technology; not interested in
latest fashion; not interested in other people's opinions; don't want to
told what to do ... Who do they sound like? Fenqing (angry
young people)?

Segment 2: Easily swayed by other people; want to be told what to
do; first to buy latest technology; follow western lifestyle; lesser respect
for tradition ... Who do they sound like? These are groupies who
follow whatever is au courant as reported on the Internet.

Segment 3: Interested in a lifestyle filled with challenges,
novelties and changes; more interested in spending time meaningfully than
just making money; ready to pay extra for environment-friendly products;
appreciate companies which support public causes; willing to volunteer
personal time for good causes ...

In the event of a catastrophe such as the Wenchuan earthquake, it should be
clear how these three segments would react. That kind of data is not
available at this time, but you can fill that in yourself ... (hint: How would
segment 3 react towards the companies listed in
The Story of Donations
Gate?)

[017] 6th Annual
Chinese Internet Research Conference - Part 1 (06/16/2008) The 6th
Annual Chinese Internet Research Conference took place on June 13-14 at the
University of Hong Kong campus. On the second day, I gave a talk.
The session was chaired by Jeremy Goldkorn (Danwei) and the other speaker was
the legendary Isaac Mao. The title was of the session was "Internet,
Tibet, Olympics and Earthquake." The set portion of my talk was a quick
review of the important happenings on the Chinese Internet during 2008. As
the session title suggests, the popular expectations for the most important
events of the year are the Tibet riots, the Olympics torch relay and the
Wenchuan earthquake.

I happen to take a postmodernist view. To quote this paragraph from PBS:

Postmodernism is largely a reaction to the assumed certainty of
scientific, or objective, efforts to explain reality. In essence, it stems
from a recognition that reality is not simply mirrored in human
understanding of it, but rather, is constructed as the mind tries to
understand its own particular and personal reality. For this reason,
postmodernism is highly skeptical of explanations which claim to be valid
for all groups, cultures, traditions, or races, and instead focuses on the
relative truths of each person. In the postmodern understanding,
interpretation is everything; reality only comes into being through our
interpretations of what the world means to us individually. Postmodernism
relies on concrete experience over abstract principles, knowing always that
the outcome of one's own experience will necessarily be fallible and
relative, rather than certain and universal.

I can only tell you what happened from my observational post here at ESWN.
So here is the graph of the number of hits by day at the ESWN blog.

The biggest 'hit' at ESWN this year was the
Sex Photos Gate affair (aka the
Edison Chen photos affair). Surprisingly, most of that traffic came from
mainland China. I was translating case materials in Hong Kong
publications that could not be accessed in the mainland (such as Apple
Daily, Next Weekly, Oriental Sunday, etc). The
mainland BBS people were back-translating my posts into Chinese again while
hot-linking to my photos. This was also the first significant case in
which the mainland authorities were less repressive than the Hong Kong
authorities with respect to censoring Internet content.

Without prior coordination, both speakers brought up the drawing titled "The
Recorded History of the Largest Riot in History" over the opinion essay by Chang Ping
in Southern Metropolis Daily (see How To Find The Truth About Lhasa?). Isaac emphasized a point that I was
glossing over: this drawing showed a static situation when in fact the
situation was evolving dynamically over time. The fact that opinions
were shifting meant that there was significant debate and interaction, and
this drawing only provides one cross-section at a particular moment in time of
an ongoing process. The most important aspect of what is happening in
China right now is that people are interacting, debating and changing their
minds (in one direction or the other). Thus, we must never take it for
granted that a case is closed because the process continues.

As for the question "What happens next in the remaining half of the year?"
I had no answer. If you had asked me on January 1, 2008 to predict what
would happen in the next 6 months, I could not have come up with these
four once-in-a-life events.

P.S. The PowerPoint presentation will eventually posted at
www.circ.asia.

[016] The Wenchuan
Earthquake and the Tibet Problem (06/16/2008) (王憲棠
at Ming
Pao)

After the Sichuan earthquake occurred, I wondered how affected were the
Tibetans. After all, the heavily hit epicenter of Wenchuan was inside
the Aba Autonomous Prefecture for the Tibetan and Xiang ethnic groups.
Readers who are concerned about the Tibet issue will recall that there
multiple large-scale protests that were suppressed in the Aba Prefecture
after the Lhasa incident in March. So the two biggest news stories in
China recently converged here. Although numerous reporters were out
there, very few reports linked the two together. This was perplexing.

After waiting for a long time, I finally spotted a related news story in
Ming Pao on June 1. The headline was striking, with each word about 3
centimeters big: "Armed Tibet Independence elements robbed disaster relief
materiel." This news story had originated from a mainland news and the
Ming Pao reporter made an independent verification. But the report did
not explain the basis by which the armed robbers were "Tibet independence
elements."

In a large-scale disaster, it is not surprising that someone might take
advantage of the situation to loot. Very often, these criminal
elements are disaster victims who did not receive anything in relief.
In Southern Weekend, there was a detailed description of such an incident.
Since the earthquake took place in the Autonomous Aba Prefecture for the
Tibetan and Xiang ethnic groups, it is no surprise that the robbers look
like Tibetans (note: the Xiang people look like Han people). The
newspaper did not remind the readers that the earthquake took place in a
Tibetan area and the unknowing readers may think that the "Tibetan
independence" parachuted in from above.

If there have been Tibetan independence guerrilla activities in this area
or if the robbers were shouting "Free Tibet" slogans during the robbery,
then there is some basis for calling them "Tibet independence" elements.
But the news report did not contain any such information.

There are many news reporters about looting after the earthquake.
If certain Han government officials stole disaster relief materiel, and the
newspaper headline is: "Han government officials stole disaster relief
materiel destined for Tibetan and Xiang people," you would think that this
newspaper is prejudiced and intent on inflaming antagonism between the Hans
and the other two minority ethnic groups. The headline is literally
correct, because those government officials were Han and they
misappropriated the disaster relief materiel earmarked for the Tibetan and
Xiang people. However, the headline is misleading. First of all,
the Hans account for 92% of all Chinese and it is nothing unusual for these
particular government officials to be Han. But there is no evidence
that other Han government officials were abusing their job authority.
An individual case is not necessarily typical. Secondly and more
importantly, there is no causal relationship between the fact that these
officials are Han and their dereliction of duty. Tibetan and Xiang
cadres are also capable of abusing their positions.

In truth, each person has multiple identities. We often
unintentionally connect the objectionable behavior of someone with one of
his many identifies. An obvious example is to connect the terrorist
activities of Middle East terrorists with their identity as believers in
Islam. It is the same type of error to say that a Han government
official abused his jon because he is a Han just as it is to say a
Tibetan-looking robber is a Tibet independence element. In truth, a
Free Tibet supporter can be an advocate of violence, or he can be a
pacifist. In the case of Mahatma Gandhi, he supported India
independence on one hand and he opposed violence on the other hand. I
don't agree with the notion of Tibet independence, but I also do not agree
with the terrorist label. Because this is not only contrafactual but
also does not help to relax the tension between the Han and Tibetan groups.

The Hong Kong Television and Entertainment Authority and the Obscene
Articles Tribunal had been going from one scandal to another --- they declared
that Michanengelo's statue of David was indecent and had to be covered up;
they declared a book of Greek fables featuring Cupid and Phoebe was indecent
and the publisher was forced to withdraw it from exhibition; the award-winning
movie <Autumn Tale> was classified as indecent when it appeared on television;
... Part of the problem was the adjudicators of the Obscene Articles
Tribunal were self-selected and tend to represent conservative opinions that
are more extreme than the mainstream. Another part of the problem was
the lack of standards and transparency as the same article can be classified
into different categories by different adjudicators (who work in pairs on the
cases) without explanation.

The reforms includes (1) an initial administrative review of the articles
submitted by citizens or the Television and Entertainment Authority; (2) a set
of detailed guidelines will be published for the government agencies and the
general public to consult; (3) the Obscene Articles Tribunal panels of
adjudicators will be expanded to recruit members of other sectors of society
and they will work in panels of four to review the cases; (4) the decisions
will be made transparent because the applicable standards and reasons will be
published.

There will also be a new classification system. Presently, the
articles are classified into one of three categories:
I. Neither Indecent Nor Obscene (which can be published freely)
II. Indecent (which can be published with a warning label that minors
are not allowed to read it)
III. Obscene (which cannot be published)

According to a blogger named Zhu Guangbing, he called the Guangya Schol
in Dujiangyan city at around 8pm on June 14 and found out from a female on
duty that the school has just formally dismissed Fan Meizhong, because "the
Department of Education has formally notified us that the teacher license
for Fan Meizhong has been cancelled. He is like a driver without a
license. We cannot employ him any more."

Fan Meizhong signed a two-year employment contract in 2007 with the
Guangya School, with more than a year left at this time. The reason
that his license was cancelled was "mainly due to his speech, because there
is nothing unusual about his teaching and his work. Basically, the
school and the students found him acceptable."

After this news spread across the Internet forums, a new round of debate
ensured.

Guangya School principal Qing Guangya was interviewed by Southern
Metropolis Daily yesterday evening. He confirmed that the school has
dismissed Fan Meizhong. On June 11, the school received notice from
the Department of Education that the teaching license of Fan Meizhong has
been cancelled. He then contacted Fan Meizhong. The principal
said, "The Guangya School no longer has any ties with Fan Meizhong."
He said that as the department in charge of education, the Department of
Education clearly has the authority and ability to do this, "just like the
Motor Vehicle Administration can suspect the license of a driver."

Fan Meizhong was interviewed yesterday by Southern Metropolis Daily.
In his view, the cancellation of his license was a direct interference by
the administrative authority. "It was a unilateral decision on their
part without giving me any chance to explain." He said that he has
received a written notice yet. He does not preclude the possibility of
suing the relevant departments.

According to the regulations on teacher qualifications, Article 19 said
that the People's Government Department of Education can disqualify a
teacher due to (1) the practice of deception to obtain the license; (2) bad
conduct, insulting of students and bad influence. When the license
gets suspended, the teacher cannot re-apply until five years later. It
is not clear whether the "bad conduct, insulting of students and bad
influence" was due to Fan Meizhong running away during the earthquake or his
subsequent Internet posts.

[013] Chinese School Teacher Predicted
Japan Earthquake (06/16/2008) (DWnews)
On June 8th, a Earthquake Administration expert appeared on a CCTV talk show.
In order to demonstrate the impossibility of earthquake prediction, he pulled
out a letter from his pocket and said: "A teacher at a middle school in Benxi
has predicted that there will be a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake near Japan
or northeastern China!" This expert proclaimed to the national
audience that this type of prediction was a joke.
At 8:43am on June 14, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake occurred in northeastern Japan.

(1) A letter arrived from Benxi (Liaoning province) ...
(2) This letter provided a predictive opinion ...
(3) It says that China and Japan ...
(4) The magnitude is 7.5 on the Richter scale ...

Would you believe the Benxi teacher? This could be a case of sheer
luck with a claim of a large earthquake somewhere in a broad area (NE
China/Japan) some time soon. What was the methodology? It was
based upon sensory cues from the body of the teacher. When this teacher
makes another prediction in the future, will you move into a tent if you
happen to be
in the predicted area?

At about 8:43am on June 14, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred in Iwate
and Miyagi prefectures in northeastern Japan. Japan's Meteorology
Bureau successfully issued predictions of the earthquake and its magnitude
before the main shock arrived. According to the Kyodo Agency, Japan's
Meteorology Bureau began to supply "emergency earthquake warnings" to the
citizens via television and other media as of October 1 last year.
Based upon the small foreshocks, the magnitude of the main shock will be
predicted. On January 26 this year, the predicted magnitude of the
Ishikawa earthquake was lower than the actual magnitude. On April 28,
the predictions at the Miyako Island (Okinawa) and Kanto district were
issued after the main shock arrived. This shows that there are some
limitations to the system.

From the above news report, (1) Japan's Meteorology Bureau has been doing
work on earthquake predictions; (2) the earthquake predictions were made
several months ago, after which the Japanese society did not fall into the
kind of chaos that some of our experts predicted ("the damages would be no
less than in a real earthquake"). Disaster prevention can take place
under normal social circumstances. When the disaster arrives, the
number of casualties will be a lot smaller if we are prepared. That is
obvious.

... Japan does not have ability to predict any earthquake several months
ahead of time. No country in the world has that kind of ability.
But Japan is the first in the world to install a nationwide earthquake
warning system, and they have the ability to issue emergency earthquake
warnings at the moment that an earthquake occurs underground. This
system has nothing to do earthquake prediction. This is not the kind
of earthquake prediction made from a series of foreshocks (as in the mythical
Haicheng earthquake prediction). Instead, the warning system leverages
the fact that there is a time gap between different types of shock waves
which propagate at different speeds through the earth.

After an earthquake takes place, two types of shock waves emanate from
the epicenter that is under the ground. The P-waves are less damaging
and they propagate more rapidly. The S-waves are more damaging and
cause most of the devastation but they propagate slower. The
earthquake warning system exploits the difference in arrival times of these
two types of waves. When the earthquake detection instruments detects
the arrival of P-waves, an estimate of the magnitude is made and an
emergency warning bulletin is issued before the S-waves arrive. The
time difference is often just a few seconds and it is not enough to evacuate
the population. However, the natural gas system can be shut down,
electricity supply can be halted and the expressways can be closed in order
to avoid secondary damage.

This is a matter of trading space to gain time, and it has many
limitations. The farther away a place is from the epicenter, the more
time it takes before the S-waves arrive. But is also means that the
force of the earthquake would be less powerful. Locations that are far
away from the epicenter may not even need the warnings. The warning is
most needed near the epicenter, but the system is useless there.

According to the report in Global Times, the previous cases were
unsuccessful. At the Miyako Island (Okinawa) earthquake on April 28,
the warning was issued 10 seconds after the P-waves arrived, but that was 5
seconds after the S-waves arrived. At this latest earthquake, the
emergency earthquake warning was issued 4 seconds after the P-waves were
detected. This may be said to be successful. But in the area
within 20 to 30 kilometers from the epicenter, the S-waves were already there
within those 4 seconds. Thus, the most seriously affected areas did
not have time to do anything. However, this is still the best
earthquake warning system available in the world at present. The US
Geological Survey is testing a similar earthquake warning system in
California right now.

In March 2007, Guangzhou began a series of "Courtesy Days" to promote
civilized behavior among citizens. The series of photo blogging turned
out to the most popular. At this time, 2,937 photos of uncivilized
behaviors (such as spitting) have been taken by citizens and submitted.

On this day, the next in the series of photo blogging begins. This
one is known as "Flashing Red and Green Light." Photo bloggers are
told to use their cameras to record uncivilized behaviors that occur near
traffic lights. Those photos will be uploaded to the website
especially created for the campaign. Afterwards, the Guangzhou City
Youth Association will use the website hit rate to determine the top 10 most
popular photos. Those photos will be used to mobilize the volunteers
to act as "human flesh search engine." The campaign will continue
until the end of the year.

After the confrontation between Jumper Guo and Runner Fan was broadcast
on Phoenix TV, many people pointed out: There are many people who can defend
morality, so why choose Jumper Guo?

Putting aside moral considerations, any other program director would
have chose Jumper Guo and not someone else. This is because Hu Yifu's
talk show is a SHOW and not a real debate. The director has the
responsibility of providing explosive scenes and twisting plots, or else the
audience won't be satisfied.

This means that a program that lasts several dozen minutes must have
conflicts and it must have a strong sense of drama. The so-called
sense of drama requires that the expectations of the audience not be met.
At the very least, the audience knows that its expectations will not be
met, but nevertheless this has to be done in a satisfactory manner. The simplest example is a romantic movie. Why are there
always so many plot twists? Man meets woman, they kiss and they get
married. Isn't that nice? But the problem is who wants to see
such a plain plot? There has to be misunderstandings and there has to
be obstacles. Anyway, it cannot proceed smoothly. So the man
shows up with flowers in hand and the woman greets him with a big slap in
the face. This is the kind of film that you will want to continue to
watch. Because it is contrary to your expectations, you are interested
in continuing to watch it in order to learn why she greeted him with a slap
in the face instead of a kiss.

... Runner Fan has been the target of criticisms of netizens around
China. Everybody knows that. Suppose the program invited a guest with unmatched debating skills and impeccable moral credentials.
That
person may disarm Runner Fan in a few sentences and have him condemned on
the spot. That would be one of the worst TV programs ever.
Everybody expected this to happen, and it did happen. So who needs a
program director? Therefore, this expectation must not be satisfied!
If Runner Fan loses, it is of no interest; if Runner Fan turns the table
around and comes out ahead, then it is A1 headline news. Everybody
wants to know: How did Runner Fan turn the table around? The TV
ratings will soar. The viewers will be satisfied, and they will even look
forward to the sequel to see if another person can defeat Runner Fan. If this
continues and Runner Fan wins five in a row, the viewers will hold their
thumbs up and ask for the life of this gladiator be spared. But by that time, that TV
program would probably be red-hot popular all over China and the amount of
betting in Macau would exceed over 1 billion RMB.

If Phoenix TV actually planned it this way, then the program producer is
very smart. If this whole thing was sheer coincidence, then this can
only be said to be sheer luck. If they find all outcomes acceptable
and they are merely going along with the flow, then that is known as
professionalism.

[009] Yu Qiuyu and The
Theory Of The Wrath Of God (06/12/2008) (ProState
in Flames) Some people claim to be having a hard time trying to
tell if Yu Qiuyu is for or against the theory of natural disasters as
expressions of the wrath of the gods. Here are the two statements by Yu
Qiuyu at different times. Is Yu Qiuyu a two-faced conniver who was 'pro'
and then became 'con' later? Or are the two statements consistent with
each other?

(The Myth of Natural Disasters) An old essay collected in the book
<In Search of China>. May 2008.

Small disasters are daily occurrences, but big disasters should not be
taken lightly because they contain certain big warning messages (which is
either the beginning or the end of something). Unfortunately, very
few people understand it.

So what do we need to understand from the Great Tangshan Earthquake?
I think the following. People are usually full of themselves.
In order to gain a little power, fame and money, they will endlessly and
limitlessly instigate class struggles and group hostilities which result
in large numbers of human tragedies. This earthquake at least makes
it clear that no person is in charge of everything. As soon as
Nature flexes, all the hubbub about the campaigns, criticisms and anger
become a trifling joke.

Nature has its almighty powers, and even a slight twitch is enough to
create fear and trembling. The fearful display in Tangshan is
clearly here to end a certain episode of history.

(Against The Theory of the Wrath of God) A conversation with
netizens. May 24, 2008.

It is truly loathsome for anyone to propose this absurd theory, which
treats the 1.3 billion people as the target of the "wrath of God."
We are mad as hell that the 50,000+ dead compatriots should be regarded as
the target of the "wrath of God"! What did the 1.3 billion Chinese
people do wrong? What did the 50,000+ compatriots do wrong?
What kind of "God" is punishing them? If this were really truly the
case, I will have to quote Guan Hanqing to yell out to Heaven: "Heaven!
The way that you kill people means that you are not worthy to be Heaven!"

Anyone can hold different political positions and social ideas. I
respect that. But I cannot tolerate that certain seemingly cultured
and thoughtful people could be unmoved by the deaths of several tens of
thousands of compatriots and they even dare to make up reasons to turn
nature's violence into the embodiment of justice. I have nothing to
say to them. I only want to tell netfriends: Anyone who is
untouched by any human tragedy cannot possibly have any political
viewpoints worthy of your attention. We will test the astonishing
variety of political ideas, points of view, academic schools, groups and
so on according to humanitarian bottom line: Do they save lives? Do
they defend the people? Do they praise the good and condemn the
evil? Do they have loving care? If they can't even pass this
bottom line test, then I am not interested in listening to the rest of
their words!

When the Internet first entered into our daily lives, many people
imagined that this would be the mythical "public space": there are no
entry/exit requirements to this public space; there is no central authority
to regulate the space; personal backgrounds do not matter; all information
is exchanged freely; and everybody discusses rationally. Disagreement
is allowed to exist and, through discussion, a consensus will be formed
gradually. This open platform that is unfettered and distorted by any
authorities will soon bring a unprecedented democratic era to humanity.

... The Internet is an infinite treasure trove of information. We
seek out that information that we need and we develop our own interests; but
the Internet does not necessarily make us understand each other better.
On the contrary, it may disrupt the potential for that. When the
Internet replaces the one-to-many mass media, we may have more freedom and
we may become the expert in specific fields; but we may also lose the
so-called "public space."

The biggest difference between "netizen" and "netfriend" is the emphasis
on 'friend.' An ideal Internet forum allows anyone to enter, peruse
and perhaps comment. In so doing, they become netizens who articulate
their various concerns and lines of thinking. But like any other
group, an Internet forum also has its "group dynamics" that evolves
according to the principles of the sociology of organizations.
Eventually, the forum will become a club for "netfriends."

In the discussions at this club, the theory is that the various diverse
opinions will interact with each other from which some kind of a consensus
emerges to form a mainstream opinion. At first, people disagree with a
certain viewpoint. Then someone declares that they "despise" those
people who hold that viewpoint. Then someone uses foul language.
Finally, someone issues an Internet warrant to hunt down the dissidents.
On one hand, anonymity protects everybody. On the other hand, it
allows the speeches to become more extreme as people try to outdo others.
Over the years, we have seen innumerable examples of the process. We
have seen how a forum can turn from a national affairs discussion forum into
a megalomaniac fantasy paradise intent to conquer the world. We have also
seen another forum going from the ideal model of rational discussions into a
small circle of people who wants to toss all angry young people into the
ocean. Like any closed group, the extreme voices dominate the
direction of the group and moderation becomes a heresy that must be
eradicated.

In the end, the formerly open world becomes a collection of small
self-absorbed, self-enclosed sects. The members of each sect have found their
true homes in their little groups. Every day, they react to the
comments of their own kind and their ideas are consolidated and reaffirmed.
Ultimately, we become the "netfriends" of different clubs and we no longer
perceive the presence of a "public space." Nevertheless, we are each
sure that we are the ones who possess the ultimate truth. We are no
different from ancient tribes.

[007] The Laughs and
Cries of Tan Li (06/12/2008) (Southern
Weekend) Mianyang city Tan Li became globally famous because
of his beaming smile as he followed President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao
on their visit to the earthquake disaster zone. Southern Weekend
interviewed him to discuss his fame.

Q. Do you know that the netizens are talking about you negatively?
Are you feel wronged? What is you response?A: I have not personally seen it on the Internet, but I have heard about
it. I definitely feel wronged. Most people do not don't the
truth. You say that I was smiling. It depends on the
circumstances. The Secretary-General and the Premier came here.
I went to meet them. Of course, I feel happy inside. I must
accept this sort of commentary. If I cannot take the heat, it would
affect the progress of the relief work. I am a city party secretary
and I am a political figure who must endure criticisms and rumors.
Such are the characteristics of political figures.

Q: How would rate the rescue and relief work of the party cadres since
the earthquake? After the Beichuang Political and Law Committee
secretary got buried, he called out to the rescuers: "Save me quickly.
I am Secretary Zhang." Many netizens scorned that this was the "most
awesome bureaucratese talk in history." How do you assess this
phenomenon.A: I think that the various levels of cadres performed outstanding work.
There were individual cases in which the cadres retreated from the frontline
or failed to perform, and they have been relieved of their duties. The
Beichuan mayor Qing Dazhong had five deaths in his family, but he reined his
feelings and stayed at the front line. The Beichuan party organization
department director, the Beichuan Middle School principal, ..., their heroic
actions are legendary. As for the "most awesome piece of bureacratese
talk in history," I only learned about this one from your proposed outline
of this interview. I asked other comrades. The Beichuan party
organization department director was buried for 75 hours before being
rescued. He stayed in the hospital for one day, and then he went back to
the front line. I think that he is a good comrade.

Q: Since the earthquake, how are your daily living conditions?A: I did not sleep for the first three days. All of the cadres
refused to sleep. They just would not listen to advise. I had to
order them to get some sleep, because they can't do this forever. I
have been sleeping very little recently. I tried to sleep while I am
in the car. I come back here in the office at night and I sleep over
on that sofa. Things are slightly better now. I hold meetings
and I eat here too.

Q: During the earthquake, you are a father who is an ordinary person
and a city party secretary. The first role may be sorrowful for you,
but the second role requires you to stay calm. How do you balance
those two roles?
A: On that day, I went to Beichuan Middle School at around 8pm. I saw
people burying the bodies. The bodies were lying across the ground.
My heart was filled with sorrow. I am a father too. When I see
the bodies of the children on the ground, I understand the sorrows that the
fathers feel. But I am almost the commander of the Mianyang city
Earthquake Relief Headquarters. I am the commander-in-chief over
several million people. Sorrow does not help. I must suppress
my feelings and I must act out my role to command calmly. I must show
the strength and steadiness of a leader. When I see the commanders
underneath me crying with me, I sometimes criticize them. I told them
not to cry, because we must be strong and calm in the face of the disaster.

Q: Did you cry?A: I cried many times. On March 13, I went with Premier Wen Jiabao
to see the victims at the Jiuzhou Sports Arena. I could not help
myself and I cried. Firstly, it was such a sad scene. Secondly,
when I saw the Premier, it was like a child seeing the father. I felt
that I had someone to rely on and the pressure was suddenly released.

Q1. How attentive are you towards the Hong Kong Legislative
Council elections in September this year? 2.5%: Completely not attentive
17.6%: Not very attentive
63.6%: Somewhat attentive
14.9%: Very attentive
1.4%: Don't know/hard to say

Q2. Do you want the incoming Legislative Councilors to monitor or
cooperate with the government?52.7%: Monitor the government
36.9%: Cooperate with the government
10.3%: Don't know/hard to say

Q4. In implementing "one country, two systems," would you like the
incoming Legislative Councilors to keep a distance away from mainland China or
work together closer with mainland China?11.7%: Keep a distance away
83.0%: Work together closer
5.3%: Don't know/hard to say

Q5. In terms of democracy, the pan-democrats demand double universal
suffrage in 2012 whereas the National People's Progress has determined 2017
for universal suffarge of the Chief Executive and then later for the
Legislative Council. Which proposal would you like the incoming
Legislative Councilors to support?
39.1%: Pan-democrats' proposal/2012 double universal suffrage
45.5%: National People's Congress' decision/2017 universal suffrage of the
Chief Executive to occur first
15.4%: Don't know/hard to say

Q7. How important to you are these attributes of candidates?
(%Very important/important)76.2%: Previous experience in politics and/or public service
74.8%: Personal background (such as professional specialty or academic degree)
56.3%: Acceptable to the central government
50.9%: Have good speaking skills
38.0%: Is a current Legislative Councilor
34.4%: Is supported by a political party
26.3%: Relatively younger

When the Wenchuan earthquake occurred, blogger Li Shihui could not wait
to state that "Geng Qingguo had clearly warned about a magnitude 7 or higher
earthquake in the ten days before or after May 10 in the Aba area of Sichuan
based upon the intensity of the magnetic storms."

What are magnetic storms? The earth is surrounded by a magnetic
field, of which the majority of the force (80% to 90%) comes from the earth
itself which is very stable. The remainder of the magnetic field is
due to the sun, which fluctuates a lot more but it only accounts for a small
change against the total background. For example, the magnetic field
in Beijing is measured at about 46,900 nT and the change induced by an
earthquake is of the order of several nT. This is not a reliable
precursor for earthquake.

Instead, the grandmasters of 'earthquake prediction' count on using
magnetic storms, which are induced by solar activities. Those storms
can result in fluctuations of several hundred nT in the earth's magnetic
field. According to "national treasure" Shen Zongpi, the engineer
Zhang Tiezheng noticed that magnetic storms often occurred before
earthquakes. By analyzing the magnetic storm and the earthquake data,
it was determined that out of 168 magnetic storms, 127 had occurred within
one day of an earthquake.

The brilliance of the theory of magnetic storms is that you don't have to
predict a location for the epicenter, since magnetic storms are global
disturbances and earthquakes can occur anywhere on earth. Whenever a
magnetic storm occurs, you look and you will find an earthquake somewhere on
earth within one day. You will always find an earthquake somewhere,
because hundreds of earthquakes occur each year around the world.

If Li Shihui asserted that "Geng Qingguo had clearly warned about a
magnitude 7 or higher earthquake in the ten days before or after May 10 in
the Aba area of Sichuan based upon the intensity of the magnetic storms,"
then the location could not have been determined from the magnetic storms
alone. Grandmaster Geng Qingguo is also famous for his theory of
drought-earthquake relationship. But since there was a drought
affecting the entire Sichuan province, he could not pinpoint the Aba
Prefecture on that basis alone. So Grandmaster Geng Qingguo is likely
to have reverted to the old theory -- earthquakes are more likely to occur
in places where earthquakes have occurred before (and conversely,
earthquakes are less likely to occur in places where earthquakes have never
occurred before).

There is a 2005 journal article which analyzed the historical
relationship between magnetic storms and earthquakes. In 1979, none of
the 18 earthquakes in China took place on the same day as a magnetic storm.
In 1998, there were 16 magnitude 7 or stronger earthquakes around the world,
and only one occurred on the same day as a magnetic storm. In 1999,
there were 20 magnitude 7 or stronger earthquakes around the world, and one
only one occurred on the same day as a magnetic storm. In March, July,
August and November of 1999, there were no magnetic storms anywhere but
there were eight large earthquakes.

At a Qingdao news forum, a post titled <Qingdao School Vice Principal
Dismissed For Refusing To Make Earthquake Donation> appeared and received more
than 10,000 hits within hours. The post was then circulated to the major
portals. The post alleges that the vice principal named Zhao told the
teacher in charge of the donation campaign that he has no money to give.
In spite of pleas, he was adamant that he won't donate a single cent.
When the school staff and students learned about this behavior, it created bad
influence. "The school leaders spoke to Zhao but he insisted that it was
his choice to donate and it was nobody else's business. Zhao had also
been derelict in his duties, showing up late and leaving early. The
school board has made the unanimous decision to dismiss Zhao.

Zhao was interviewed by Southern Metropolis Daily. He said that he
had previous disagreements with the school principal named Ma over working
styles. Zhao preferred to be practical but Ma was apparently more
flamboyant, including throwing one RMB notes into the air for people to grab.
Zhao had unsuccessfully tried several times before to quit, but he was
persuaded to leave. When the Wenchuan earthquake occurred, Zhao asked Ma
to organize a donation campaign but Ma refused. So Zhao made two
separate donations totalling 1,200 RMB through other channels. On May
21, the school began to organize donations. Zhao received a telephone
call from a worker and said that the school principal required middle-level
managers to donate at least 100 RMB. Zhao resented the use of "required"
and "at least." Zhao said, "I was born in the 1980's. I have my
own personality and views. I don't think people should be forced to
donate money. This is a personal matter. What was he doing when I
was making my donations? This school principal wants to use the workers'
money to accomplish his own goals. That is why I refused." He said
that Ma used his departure to hype up the topic, and that was really
disappointing.

Ma was also interviewed by Southern Metropolis Daily. "I left the
delegated the donation campaign to the school workers. I did not force
anyone to donate any fixed amounts. It does not matter if it is 10 RMB
or 20 RMB, but isn't it unreasonable not to donate even one cent? We
have two vice-principals. One donated 2,000 RMB while the other gave not
one cent. This is hard on me. You make more than 4,000 RMB per
month. Is it too much to ask you to donate one or two hundred RMB?"
He thought that Zhao had talents, but he lacked character, responsibility and
concern. Therefore, the school board decided to dismiss him.

[003] Taiwan By The
Numbers (06/11/2008) (China
Times) (889 voters were interviewed by telephone on June 5 and 6.
Telephone numbers were randomly selected from the telephone directory, and then
the last two digits were randomized. There were 851 refusals. The
poll was conducted by the Democratic Progressive Party's Public Opinion Polling
Center)

Approval of President Ma Ying-jeou's job performance50.8% approve (down from 71% on April 7)
42.7% disapprove (up from 22.5% on April 7 to 32.2% on May 27)

Among middle-of-the-road voters, approval went from 61.3% on April 7, to
36.1% on May 27 to 30.1% on June 5. Their disapproval rates went from
18.9% on April 7, to 37.6% on May 27 to 57.8% on June 5.

The poll also showed that the loss in approval ratings was due to the new
cabinet policies and the loss of sovereignty for Taiwan in cross-strait
relationship.

[002] Taiwan By The
Numbers (06/11/2008) (TVBS)
(1,015 persons age 20 or older interviewed by telephone on June 6 and June 9.
Telephone numbers were randomly selected from the telephone directory, and then
the last four digits were randomized)

Q1. Would you like to see us enter international organizations
under the name of Taiwan or Chinese Taipei?54%: Taiwan
25%: Chinese Taipei
21%: No opinion

Q3. If you can choose, would your prefer Taiwan to become an
independent country, or unify with mainland China, or become a state in the
United States of America?58%: Independent country
17%: Unified with mainland China
8%: Become a state in the United States of America
17%: No opinion

Q4. If you can choose, would you prefer Taiwan to become an independent
country, or unify with mainland China?65%: Independent country
19%: Unified with mainland China
16%: No opinion

Q5. In our society, some people think that they are Chinese while other
people think that they are Taiwanese. Which do you think you are?68%: Taiwanese
18%: Chinese
14%: Don't know/refused

Q6. Do you think of yourself as Taiwanese? Chinese? Or both?Green: Both Taiwanese and Chinese;
Blue: Taiwanese;
Purple: Chinese

[001] Taiwan By The
Numbers (06/11/2008) (Global
Views Magazine) (1,027 persons age 20 or over were interviewed by
telephone on June 4 to June 6, 2008)

Q. How do you think the the mainland Chinese government feels towards
the people of Taiwan?39.0%: Friendly
37.9%: Unfriendly

Q. What should President Ma Ying-jeou do first with respect towards
mainland China?55.8%: Economic cooperation
38.4%: Put a stop to diplomatic war
27.3%: Put a stop to military hostilities
19.4%: Social and cultural exchange
13.6%: Political negotiations

Q. What will the two sides of the traits eventually become?50.2%: Friends
12.5%: Family members
11.8%: Relatives
5.9%: Strangers
4.5%: Enemies

Q. In his inaugural speech, President Ma Ying-jeou said that the people
on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are all Chinese and he referred to the
mainland people as compatriots. Do you identify yourself as ...?84.9%: A member of the Republic of China
77.2%: A member of the Chinese people
72.5%: Both a member of the Republic of China and a member of the Chinese
people

Q. Do you agree that the people on the two sides of the Taiwan
Strait are Chinese?59.7%: Yes
27.9%: No

Q. Under what name would you like to see Taiwan join international
organizations?36.7%: Taiwan
30.9%: Republic of China
15.5%: Chinese Taiwan
8.5%: Chinese Taipei

Q. If forced to choose between the two ...?64.2%: Chinese Taiwan
19.6%: Chinese Taipei