The original plan was for butterfly pattern with a flight time of ~9 hrs.
Because of several problems (electrical fire at the AVAPS station, obtaining
flight clearance, being "blocked-in" by a Cessna) we shorten the mission to a
single figure 4 pattern into AL92/PGI 44L (Pre-Karl) to capture genesis. We
started the mission at 12,000 ft (radar) and then descend to 7,000 ft (radar)
for the second half of the flight pattern for the Ocean Winds experiment. We
took off and landed in St. Criox (Fig. 1). Our first pass into the "center"
was from the north and then we turned and descended to the NW for our second
pass coming from the west. The NASA DC-8 was also flying the system at the same
time were out there.

AL92/PGI44L has had a development and regeneration of convection each morning
for the last few days followed by a collapse of the convection in the evenings
and no definitive evidence of a lasting circulation. It remains to be seen if
the system will finally begin to organize or undergo true genesis as many of
the models have been suggesting. Trying to determine a circulation center has
been difficult since there seems to be multiple centers, mostly at mid-levels.
Water vapor imagery shows a disorganized area with not sign of formation. In
the mid-Atlantic you can see Hurricane Igor and Julia at the edge of the image.

Fig. 2. Water vapor imagery from CIMSS for 13 Sept. 1018 UTC.

The CIMSS upper level winds show a large anti-cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico
bordered to the north by the jet and extending along the frontal boundary out
into the Atlantic. AL92 and the Caribbean the dominant flow is zonal (Fig. 3).

The CIMSS low-level vorticity analysis shows a well-defined area but during
our flight with did not see anything that would hint at a developing system
(Fig 4.). The model consensus track is also drawn.

Microwave imagery from SSMIS-85Ghz PCT at 1302 UTC showed two areas of
convection (Fig. 5). During our flight the southern most convective area was
not present. Our drop pattern was to drop sondes at the turn points, midpoint,
and a "center" drop at 1st and last pass. In the middle our flight pattern,
after our first pass we descended to 7,000 ft (radar) for the Ocean Winds part
of the experiment. Eight sondes were dropped with the highest wind being 5 kt
at the surface. The SFMR values were also around 5 kt. The pressure remind
constant at 1007 mb. All the convection that was present in the daytime was
complete gone during our flight. A center was difficult to determine based on
data so we flowed the prescribed flight pattern center. In order to minimize
interference between the TDR and Ocean Winds hardware, the LF radar was run in
"sector scan mode" when the aircraft was at lower altitude during the last
pass through the "center".

Figure 6 shows the Doppler wind analyses quick look for two altitudes 1 and 3
km. The sondes are also plotted. As you can see there weren't much scatters
at these levels. The sondes are hinting at a weak circulation. Is there is
genesis occurring it is happening very slowly. Figure 7 shows the actual
flight track we flew.

Fig. 7 Actual flight track flown. Image is from H*Wind.

Problems :

There were several problems that were encountered before take-off.
There was an electrical fire at the AVAPS station that delayed take-off. The
pilots had difficulty getting flight clearance and then a private aircraft (a
Cessna) parked near us, blocking us from leaving. Our take-off was late by
almost 2 hours.

The radar, flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde systems worked well on this
flight. Doppler analyses were conducted and successfully sent off the plane
in real-time. There were times that the TDR froze and that is noted in the
radar logs. The CCN counter had problems. From the beginning of the flight it
complained about a sensor being fogged. After x-chatting with Terry Lathem he
suggested to shut off the instrument.