Jeremy Juuso has an interesting post on Baseline Intelligence that Phillip Lefesi tipped me to. Jeremy analyzes the 1st & 2nd weekend returns of DIY vs other specialized releases. The DIY films hold their own on the first weekend, but are surpassed by the corporate releases thereafter. What is not mentioned however, is that the DIY films are not only probably more profitable, but the DIY films are still owned by the filmmakers (presumably). If the exhibitors take 50% of the gross, the differential for rentals is only $25K between the two over the first two weeks. You have to figure that the corporate releases are spending more than $25K over the DIY films in marketing costs. The DIY team would thus be making more money as well as owning their film and controlling their release. Check it out.

By now you've probably heard that the US Congress has approved two different film future exchanges, (i.e. commodity exchanges). Variety, among others, have been covering the story in what we have to recognize as an inflammatory way (then again, why should they not be like the rest of the media).
The press has uniformly been very biased in the way the story is told, always positioning the exchages as "a gamble" and a haven for speculation. Sure, I suspect that these exchanges will prove to be a very disruptive influence, but that does not mean they are shouldn't be allowed. And yes, I am all in favor of far greater government supervision of our financial industries, but again that does not mean new mechanisms shouldn't be given a chance. There is a great deal more to the story of these exchanges that needs be put on the table, as they offer us many benefits beyond what the press would have us understand is a simply another opportunity to gamble.

I am grossly disappointed in the lack of action from film industry leaders to do anything to help to establish a sustainable investor class for the entertainment industry. Not once, and nowhere, have any articles or anyone spoken up, as to any alternative vehicle to the film futures exchanges that could offer investors a mechanism for managing risks. Let's not get into the fact the Hollywood's approach to equity investors is treat them just like another in a long line of suckers. The Industry's historic attitude to equity investors in the film biz is so dismal, it makes something unknown and unproven like film futures start to look very appealing in contrast, at least to me that is.

There is no discussion within our industry, even in the Truly Free circles, as to what could support, build, and sustain investors. Without serious discussion of this subject, and reasoned action around it, the days of an independent film INDUSTRY are numbered. Investors are a key stakeholder in both the business and art of film, and their needs must be addressed. I plan to consider more fully in future posts some things that would help maintain an investor class, but that is for later blogging -- I want to consider these exchanges.

One thing though that always comes up in discussing investors' needs is managing their risk, which is one of the main selling points of film futures.

I hoped that Indiewire or some other non-MPAA mouthpiece might cover the story from a truly indie angle, but alas, it has not been so. We are forced to read in between the lines to get some semblance of what these exchanges may offer the indie community and our investors. Variety pointed out:

(Lionsgates') Burns said in his letter that Cantor's exchange "would allow a diverse group of motion picture industry participants, including studios, film distributors, theater owners, investors and other financial intermediaries within the motion picture industry to manage their risk and exposure to new film releases."

Further...

(Cantor's) Jaycobs said the goal of Cantor Exchange is to assist the motion picture industry by expanding the breadth and depth of financing sources. "Enlarging the potential sources of film financing will lower the cost of making a film, help create American jobs, and contribute to stabilizing large and small numbers of the industry alike as they face the challenge of raising financing in the high-risk endeavor of filmmaking," he said.

In the LA Times Sunday, they point out however that film futures is not like other commodities as the interests of buyers and sellers are not aligned.

There's also a fundamental difference between a futures contract on, say, gasoline prices and one on a movie. Paul Glasserman, an expert on derivatives at Columbia Business School, notes that both buyers and sellers of gasoline futures have legitimate risk-management motives. A buyer (such as a trucking fleet) might worry about prices rising, while a seller (such as an oil company) might want to keep them from dropping sharply. But there's no such symmetry in movie futures, in which investors trying to hedge their bets on a film will have to rely on speculators to shoulder the risk.

In Variety, interim MPAA head, Pisano said the MPAA's position is that the proposed exchanges are not in the public interest and are not useful to hedge risk. "Although it may appear in theory that establishing a short position in a futures contract could be a 'hedge' against poor box office performance, in the reality of the marketplace, selling a motion picture 'short' after production would invite catastrophic collateral consequences, both for the particular film's success and future relationships with financiers, directors, actors, exhibitors and others."

What do I know, but I don't agree. I think these exchanges do offer investors an opportunity to manage their risk -- and they should have that choice. I think these exchanges enhance the opportunity to demonstrate audience demand and expectation. I think these exchanges offer a new marketing platform to an industry desperately in need of such opportunities. I think these exchanges offer another cog in what is a difficult endeavor to help audiences discover new work. Most of all, from an independent perspective, these exchanges are entirely elective.

But truly, we need other perspectives. Why has the discussion been so one sided? If we can't come up with mechanisms to help introduce new tools for investment, we are going to watch our diverse and ambitious culture seriously diminish.

From public statements and press reports, it appears unlikely that films will be listed for futures trading unless they have plans to open at well over 650 domestic theaters. Also, based on the CX movie futures listing standards, it appears unlikely that a film will be listed if the film’s release date is scheduled for more than one year, or less than one month, from the date of consideration.

Under these guidelines only a few of my films will have ever qualified for this listing, and with it so goes the possibility of it supporting much indie film investment. Further, as I can only imagine that theatrical release patterns of specialized content will be changing greatly in the days to come, the chances of even more films from being excluded from listing. So where does this leave us?

Juuso's post is quite extensive and informative. I was very glad to have read it and recommend you do so too. He makes a particularly good point about who will most likely use the film future exchanges, along with the citing the difference between "speculation" and "gambling". I look forward to more of his posts. I've read and commented on Juuso's posts in the past, and like where he's now heading.

Update 4/29: It's nice to see that TheWrap.com is starting to cover the other side of the story.

to have a decent shot at breaking $1 million in lifetime box office, your Q2 specialty film needs to open at better than $15,000 per weekend venue. The bad news is, if you’re engaging in a self-release or service deal, this will be a very tall order, as only 5 such films in all of 2009 managed to open so.

Self-produced distribution, as I prefer to call it, as no one is going to be doing it by yourself, is a time-consuming, expensive, and challenging process. It is also something that is still in the process of being defined. There are a lot of experts any one can hire, but there is no template to doing it right.

What Juuso neglects to mention, that for all the films last year on a DIY or service model, none of them planned to go that approach from the beginning. The age of DIY will begin when filmmakers and their financiers agree that self-produced distribution is Plan A. That is the true game changer -- when we all start planning to put it up and out without the support of rights trade to a major corporation.

SF Film Society Blog

We announce the full program of the 58th San Francisco International Film Festival tomorrow morning! So many exciting films, programs & special events to share with you all. Something for everyone this Fest! Parents, look out for our Short 5: Family Films program. This annual collection of shorts — one of the most popular programs at #SFIFF — is sure to please the smallest members of your family as well as the young at heart and everyone in between. A variety of incredible storytellers & animators have attended this program in years past, including #MoonbotStudios, #JonKlassen, #BillPlympton, #MoWillems, #AardmanAnimations,#WestonWoods and some of the current greats at #Pixar. After films screen, we host Q&As and meet-and-greets, where you’ll have the opportunity to chat with filmmaker guests, and maybe even catch an autograph or two. Pictured below is #RobertKondo — a director of the Academy Award-nominated film #TheDamKeeper — signing the shoe of a fan at this program at SFIFF57. Stay tuned: this year’s (knockout) lineup will be released tomorrow with the rest of the Fest!

We are stoked to present NightLife @calacademy on April 2! Evening highlights include a special screening of Oscar nom'd short #TheDamKeeper with a live drawing demo from one of the film's directors; a Q&A with the minds behind Google Advanced Technology Projects and Spotlight Stories; and an exclusive clips presentation from #Advantageous, a sci-fi #Sundance prize-winner from Bay Area filmmaker Jennifer Phang, who will stick around to talk special effects after the screening. & If you feel the need to shake loose at any point, dip out into Cal Academy's gorgeous piazza and get down at our Silent Disco, featuring synthy and riffy jams from some of your favorite 70s & 80s film soundtracks. Visit bit.ly/SFIFFlife for tickets & more! Photo by Lizzy Brooks.

We are excited to announce the Opening, Centerpiece and Closing films at the 58th San Francisco International Film Festival! This year, #AlexGibney's intelligent and insightful doc #SteveJobs: The Man in the Machine will kick off the program; #TheEndOfTheTour, a biographical drama following literary giant #DavidFosterWallace, will play as #SFIFF's Centerpiece film; and #Experimenter, in which #PeterSarsgaard gives a stellar performance as controversial social scientist Stanley Milgram will close out the Fest. Tickets to all three films are on sale to #SFFSmembers now, public onsale begins noon Friday (3/27). Full info at sffs.org.

#TBT: About 20 years ago, soon-to-be sci-fi & fantasy legend #GuillermoDelToro attended the San Francisco International Festival will his very first feature film, #Cronos, a vampire horror set in 16th century Mexico. He has done much work since SFIFF37, becoming a major player in both commercial and indie camps, with films ranging from the magical #PansLabyrinth to the spectacular #PacificRim. We are so pleased to announce that del Toro will be the recipient of this year's Irving M. Levin Directing Award. Catch him at the #CastroTheatre on April 25 to hear him discuss his career, to see clips from both old and new work and to watch one of his best-loved films, #TheDevilsBackbone. Tickets on sale to #SFFSmembers now, public onsale begins noon March 21. Full info at sffs.org.

#Regram from @ross_bros. Stoked that these guys won the Louis Black “Lone Star” Award at #SXSW for their film #Western. Congrats to the filmmakers and crew behind this stunning production. Proud that this doc is one that #SFFSsupports!

Don't call him Ricky — at least, not if you expect him to answer. The recipient of this year's Peter J. Owens Award is none other than screen legend #RichardGere. We are so excited to honor this prolific actor with one of the Festival's most prestigious prizes. Gere will host an evening at the #CastroTheatre, where he will discuss his career and screen his new film #TimeOutOfMind, a stunning, observational portrait of a man who must cope with homelessness in contemporary New York. Tickets on sale to #SFFSmembers now. Public onsale begins noon March 19. Visit sffs.org to purchase or for full details.

Each year at the Festival, we honor an actor whose career exemplifies independence & integrity with #SFIFF's Peter J. Owens Award. Recipients of this esteemed prize include screen legends #DustinHoffman, #HarrisonFord and #WinonaRyder (pictured). When Ryder was recognized back in 2000, we screened #TheAgeOfInnocence, a film for which she earned an Academy Award under Martin Scorsese's direction. We will be announcing this year's awardee early next week. Until then, enjoy this #TBT!

Don't walk, RUN: earlybird #SFIFF ticket packages are now on sale, and we just announced this year's slate of feature-length competition films! Golden Gate Award nominees this Fest hail from almost 20 countries across the globe and are in contention for nearly $40k in prizes. Get to know these remarkable films before we release the rest of the Fest and snag discounted tickets at sffs.org. Pictured: Run, a narrative film from the Ivory Coast & France up for the New Directors Prize at SFIFF58.

Missed it last #SFIFF? We've collected as many streaming links as we could dig up for films from last year's Festival. Start a SFIFF57 movie marathon while you wait for us to release the full SFIFF58 lineup on March 31. You've got 21 days and more than 40 films to choose from (including the gorgeously filmed #Tracks, starring #MiaWasikowska, pictured). Make your way to blog.sffs.org/watch – a simpler trek than one across the Australian Outback.

Thrilled to announce that #MirandaJuly will be bringing #NewSociety, her latest performance project, to #SFIFF audiences April 28 & 29. Hilarious and moving, this experiment in theatrical collaboration chronicles the ways societies emerge, transform, decay and persist over time. Like July's other projects, New Society blurs boundaries between fiction and reality, and audience and performer. So excited to present this event in collaboration with #SFMOMA; tickets on sale NOW to our members & theirs at sffs.org. Photo by #PamelaGentile. #SFFSmembers

In anticipation of this Friday's release of Boyhood with the filmmaker returning to SF for a round of Q&As, watch the onstage interview with Richard Linklater and Parker Posey and Boyhood Q&A from An Evening with Richard Linklater at the 57th San Francisco International Film Festival!

The San Francisco Film Society wrapped its 57th San Francisco International Film Festival (April 24–May 8) with 263 screenings of 168 films from 56 countries, which were attended by over 300 filmmakers and industry guests from over 20 countries. Over 15 days, SFIFF57 showed 74 narrative features, 29 documentary features and a total of 65 short films. See all the highlights and photo galleries!

Last night, the 57th San Francisco International Film Festival announced the winners of the juried Golden Gate Award and New Directors Prize competitionsat an event held at Rouge | Nick’s Crispy Tacos. This year the Festival awarded nearly $40,000 in prizes to emerging and established filmmakers from 13 countries around the globe!