The eyes of a nervous, impatient world will turn towards America this evening, as a powerful leader prepares to outline his vision for a new era. That will be Steve Jobs launching Apple's latest iGadget. And in other news, President Obama will also be delivering his first state of the union address to Congress.

While there hasn't quite been the months of hype surrounding the Apple launch this evening, the pundits of Washington have been working up their own mini-lather over Obama's SOTU. There's been no shortage of advice, most of it contradictory ("Democrats offer conflicting advice for SOTU," reports Politico, in today's least surprising news article). The single best piece of analysis on the subject is from the Guardian's very own Jonathan Freedland:

First, Democrats have to finish what they started. It has been pathetic to watch so many throw their hands up in defeat at the first setback.

So, what do we know of the state of the union so far? (Apart from the fact, as the Gallup polling organisation reports, that the SOTU has little or no impact on a president's poll ratings?)

We know that Obama will somehow be saying sorry for his administration's various failings over the past year. According to the New York Times:

When Mr. Obama presents his first State of the Union address on Wednesday evening, aides said he would accept responsibility, though not necessarily blame, for failing to deliver swiftly on some of the changes he promised a year ago. But he will not, aides said, accede to criticism that his priorities are out of step with the nation's.

Responsibility but not blame? That's a difficult needle to thread – as in, "I did it but it's not my fault."

But what of the more concrete proposals? Well, there's the "spending freeze" which on closer inspection is a sort of "spending chill" since it will only apply to the sliver of the US government budget which is discretionary. Yet a major theme of the Tea Party protests (and others) has been the size of the deficit, as a background drumbeat. Complaining that these people were nowhere to be seen during the Bush era isn't much help.

Interestingly, Obama appears to be reaching out for the one mildly bipartisan domestic policy arena left to him: education. Part of this is to be an overhaul of No Child Left Behind act of the Bush era – and NCLB was the one truly bipartisan piece of domestic legislation that Bush managed to pass through Congress, so that may not be a bad place to start.

There's a mountain of other analysis-cum-thumbsucking. What we don't yet know are the smallbore "eye-catching initiatives" beloved of presidents. Bill Clinton had his riff on school uniforms (seriously), and the v-chip (for a "violence chip" allowing parents to block TV content) in his 1996 SOTU address. And who can remember – I mean, who can forget this groundbreaking policy unleashed by George Bush in his 2005 SOTU:

Tonight I propose a three-year initiative to help organizations keep young people out of gangs, and show young men an ideal of manhood that respects women and rejects violence. Taking on gang life will be one part of a broader outreach to at-risk youth, which involves parents and pastors, coaches and community leaders, in programmes ranging from literacy to sports. And I am proud that the leader of this nationwide effort will be our first lady, Laura Bush.

Which of course entirely solved America's gang problem. What else do we know? Well, it will have a 10 inch screen and run the iPhone operating system ... sorry, that's Steve Jobs.

I don't think I'm going to watch the SOTU; all indications are that it will be deeply, deeply depressing.

For those of you without Krugman's sunny disposition: tonight we'll be liveblogging the state of the union from a little before 9pm eastern time (that's 2am GMT for insomniac West Wing fans). In the meantime, fill in those empty hours by following my colleague Bobbie Johnson's liveblogging of the Apple launch.