Monday, January 15, 2018

Trade, labor concerns hang over ag as Trump prepares to address top farm group

By: CNBC - January 8, 2018

"The food chains of the three countries are very integrated, so without NAFTA it would have a massive displacement," said John Beghin, a professor of agricultural economics at North Carolina State University. "Walmart or the other big retailers or food processors have spent time integrating across borders, so any change in trade policy will create headaches."

Dan O’Brien, Kansas State University
Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State University

Morning Agriculture: HARDY WHEAT GROWERS HOLD ON THROUGH COLD SNAP

By: Politico- January 8, 2018

If growers of winter wheat learned one thing over the past financially wrenching years, it was how to prepare for more trouble ahead. As much of the nation has suffered from a deep freeze over the past week, hard red winter wheat growers in states like Kansas and Oklahoma (whose grains are found in artisanal breads and pizza dough) were already not expecting much success this year. They have been battling price declines from the world’s global wheat glut and a recent drought. Data tracked by Herndon, Va.-based Radiant Solutions estimated that “damage occurred in about a quarter of the hard red wheat belt in the central Plains.”

This is a prime indicator that the economy is strong, said Ted Schroeder, professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University, with economic growth forecasts reaching the fastest pace in three years. “The conditions around employment and disposable income are creating demand from consumers,” he said. “As income grows and we gain more confidence, we will spend more at establishments on meat, especially products like high-quality steak.”

Each year American Farm Bureau Federation brings in expert crop and livestock market specialist to provide their outlook for the upcoming year. In case you missed it, today's Market Intel provides the slides that were presented to the membership in attendance in Nashville.

In 2018, Dr. Keith Coble, the Giles Distinguished Professor and Department Head, Agricultural Economics Department, Mississippi State University and James Robb, Director and Senior Agricultural Economist, Livestock Marketing Information Center provided members their outlook for the 2018 agricultural economy.

Luis Ribera, director of the Center for North American Studies at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University AgriLife Extension says Texas growers and livestock producers rely heavily on trade. He says about one-third of Texas farm income is derived from exports. NAFTA countries account for six or seven percent of the total.

“I think there is every reason to believe that we will do a farm bill next year, certainly at least an extension and the odds are that it will be re-written. The current tone is for limited change in all farm bill titles. A constrained budget is the key reason,” said Carl Zulauf, with the Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics at Ohio State University. “It will depend on how things evolve from here. I think there is a lot of political momentum and economic momentum for a new farm bill. It probably won’t get done until close to the election if not after, but I do expect us to get a new farm bill. Remember, we do have to have a new one in place by the 2019 crop year because this one ends with the 2018 crop year.”

The authors are Chuck Nicholson, now an adjunct associate professor at Cornell University; Mark Stephenson, director of dairy policy analysis at the University of Wisconsin Madison; and Andrew Novakovic, E.V. Baker professor of agricultural economics at Cornell.

Kate Fuller, MSU Extension specialist in agricultural economics and economics, will share “Partial budget analysis: why and how to estimate cost of production.” Producers will explore enterprise budgeting and partial budget analysis during Fuller’s presentation. Available estimates, along with tools to help estimate and benchmark cost of production for both current and potential enterprises, will be shared. Participants can also explore current market conditions and how they will impact producer profitability.