Solid record of picking winners

Sunday

Dec 30, 2007 at 12:01 AMDec 30, 2007 at 4:14 PM

Among Illinois’ political junkies, the complaining about Iowa’s presidential caucuses is a low, muttering rumble. Here’s what they are saying: “They’re barely a fourth of our population.” “They aren’t a diverse group.” “They think a presidential candidate isn’t worth voting for unless he/she has been over to their house for dinner.”

Chuck Sweeny

Among Illinois’ political junkies, the complaining about Iowa’s presidential caucuses is a low, muttering rumble. Here’s what they are saying:

“They’re barely a fourth of our population.” “They aren’t a diverse group.” “They think a presidential candidate isn’t worth voting for unless he/she has been over to their house for dinner.”

All are slightly exaggerated truths. Problem is, in the two-year presidential derby that ends in November, Iowa’s caucuses come first, on Thursday, which makes that state’s 3 million people more important than Illinois’ 12.8 million. Our primary election isn’t until Feb. 5.

Because Iowa is critically important in the election of the 44th president, the Rockford Register Star will do what we’ve done in 2000 and 2004. We’ll go to Iowa to cover two caucuses, one Democratic, one Republican, both on the south side of Des Moines in a middle- and working-class neighborhood near the airport. The Democratic caucus was a bellwether for the state in 2000, selecting Al Gore, and in 2004, when it gave the nod to John Kerry.

Democrats in the 87th Precinct will caucus in an Italian-American center; Republicans of the 87th and 88th Precincts will meet in an elementary school. We are expecting to provide real-time blogging from both sites.

Caucuses aren’t like primary elections by a long shot.

For one thing, they are not inclusive. Voters have to show up between 6:30 and 7 p.m. at their caucus site, typically a school, community center or church hall. At 7 p.m., the doors are locked. If you arrive at 7:01, forget it. And there are no absentee ballots for people who work second shift, people who are away from the state, or the infirm.

Nevertheless, caucuses are an Iowa tradition as old as the state, which entered the Union in 1848. The rest of the nation didn’t notice the caucuses until 1972, when Democrats moved their presidential caucus to Jan. 24 to be first in the nation.

Republicans followed suit in 1976, and ever since, the international media have descended on the Hawkeye State to cover the first test of presidential contenders.

As other states moved their primary elections forward in the 2008 calendar, Iowa pushed its caucuses to Jan. 3 to continue being first. It’s difficult to predict because of wintry weather conditions, but as many as 150,000 Democrats and 100,000 Republicans could attend caucuses in the state’s 1,784 precincts.

Republican caucuses are simple. GOP voters gather to hear pitches for their candidates. They cast secret ballots, and the results are phoned into party headquarters. Then they go home. So, GOP caucuses are quick and to the point.

Democratic caucuses are long, cumbersome and public. Those taking part walk to places in the caucus room designated for their candidates. A candidate must attract 15 percent of the people in the room to be “viable.” Supporters of nonviable candidates are invited to join viable candidates’ backers. A head count is taken and the results called in to the state party.

In 2000, Democrats remained after the presidential tallies to debate resolutions on a variety of global, state and local issues.

The 2008 caucuses are exciting because there’s no front-runner in either party. Democrats Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards lead their party’s field. Republicans Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and a surging John McCain are neck and neck.

Winning in Iowa doesn’t always ensure a party nomination, but more often than not the Iowa winners go on to lead their respective parties in the fall election.

Political editor Chuck Sweeny can be reached at 815-987-1372 or csweeny@rrstar.com.