Greece has been at the center of global attention for a long time. Having been hit the hardest by the economic crisis of 2008 and seemingly incapable of showing any meaningful signs of recovery, it is often seen as Europe’s spoiled child—a bad pimple on the world’s arse. Even more, the January 25 elections provided fodder for speculation as to what would happen to the Greece, its place in the Eurozone, and the world economy if the radical left-wing party Syriza, with its anti-austerity rhetoric and debt-renegotiation commitment, were to win. I’m sure many of you are wondering what is going on now that it has.

For starters, Syriza’s electoral victory was not as wide as its members may have wanted. Of the 151 parliament seats needed to achieve a stable majority, it got 149, which led to the formation of a coalition government. Of all the possible parties, Syriza’s leader Alexis Tsipras chose to collaborate with the Independent Greeks (ANEL), thus creating a singular, political surrealism: a radical left/far right government.

The only issue on which the two parties officially agree is their common distaste for the austerity program and the associated reforms prescribed by the country’s creditors. This peculiar alliance raises numerous questions at home and abroad, from the country’s economic course to the social policies that can possibly be introduced by two parties with completely opposite stances. Another issue with a dubious future is the country’s international affairs.

In order to better explain that last bit, we need to make clear that Syriza is not a single party. It is the coalition of several leftist movements that have been unified for the sake of the electoral bonus of 50 parliament seats in case of victory. The governing majority of Syriza, represented by Mr. Tsipras, can be described as euro-socialist, with relatively progressive, “West-friendly” views. But there are also more radical members—euro-separatists and communists.

Of course, now there are the Independent Greeks, with their populist ideas and anti-Semitic, conspiracy-loving worldview. Ironically enough, radical leftists and almost-nationalists both seem in love with Russia, but for different reasons: For the former, it’s Russia’s socialist past, and for the latter, it’s Russia’s Orthodox Christian present.

Right now we can only guess what is eventually going to happen. To back our assessment, let’s take a look at the members of the newly formed government and what they stand for.

The new Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, is one of the youngest to hold that position in Greek history at 40 years old. From his very first steps onto the political scene, he was aligned with the left’s ideology. He started as a member of the Communist Party of Greece’s youth and went on to become a member of the so-called ‘Coalition,’ the predecessor of today’s Syriza.

As leader of the main opposition party, his stance on the country’s agreements with its Eurozone partners, the IMF, and the resulting reform program was that of total disdain. He would accuse the creditors of providing bad loans and promise to unilaterally write Greek debts off when in power. The closer he got to actually winning, however, the more moderate he became. During the electoral campaign, the revolutionary rhetoric was replaced by a commitment to renegotiate, and the accusations of the lenders’ personal interests were replaced by the argument of debt unsustainability.

The problem here, of course, comes from the contradictory statements by the aforementioned radical forces. Who will Tsipras chose to appease if it comes to that? The international partners or the separatists in his own party?

Back to international affairs. A slight shift has been evident from the very beginning. The congratulatory calls from Vladimir Putin or the visits from the Chinese and Russian ambassadors may not come as a surprise, but that wasn’t all. What did Tsipras choose to do in his first days in office? Express his disagreement with the European sanctions on Russia, to be imposed due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

To make matters even more questionable, he appointed as the new defense minister the leader of the Independent Greeks—Panos Kamenos. Kammenos’ first statements involved a budgetary expansion for defense and the need of warming of relations with Russia to protect the Greek armed forces’ supply of Russian weapon systems.

The new minister of foreign affairs is Nikos Kotzias, a former communist politics professor, a rather outspoken individual against Germany’s hegemony in Europe. His appointment is another move that may suggest the direction the Greek government is heading, as he is known for his close ties with Russia, especially with extremists like Alexander Dugin.

The first three days of the new Greek government are a show of force, internally and externally. Most probably, they are putting the Eurozone’s nerves to the test in an attempt to coerce an easing of the austerity program. It all comes down to what each party has to lose from a possible Greek exit, and the benefits for both from a debt haircut in order to avoid it.

Since the euro crisis in 2012, firewalls have been set up in the Eurozone economy to contain the damage. But the monetary union needs to prove its membership irreversibility. Furthermore, Tsipras needs money to keep his pre-electoral promises.

Syriza’s letter of disagreement on the Russian sanctions and the possibility of a veto caught Europe off guard. But as populist parties, either left or right, all with eurosceptic ideas, are on the rise throughout the area, it may bring to the attention of the local governments the possibility of penetration of Russian interests.

Geostrategic Implications

Greece has been a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since 1952, and was admitted to the European Union in 1981. Greece’s accession to NATO was in conjunction with that of Turkey. Even nearly 63 years after they joined the Atlantic Alliance together, Greece and Turkey remain almost inextricably tied together in value to the alliance. While Turkey’s value to NATO is largely attributable to the country’s geographic location, Greece is a historic state with a geographically valuable location, possessing a cultural component that lends significant weight to NATO’s mission as a defense organization for most of Europe.

What do the Greek elections mean for geopolitics in wartime Europe? The elections in Greece have resulted in a scenario in which Syriza will have to govern a minority government via coalition. This means that Syriza will have to align the party and the government with other parties that may deviate very sharply on key issues. As the government in Athens is crafted and the governing part of Syriza’s rise to rule becomes a reality, the geopolitical landscape will be affected by the new government as much as the government will impact the geopolitical landscape of the continent.

Tsipras has already welcomed the Russian government warmly as a prospective partner in Greek foreign policy. Through public statements and campaign rhetoric, Tsipras has made clear that he intends to chart a path that may diverge from the one established by the EU, one that includes the levying of strong sanctions on Russia in the wake of its support for violent rebellion in Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea last spring, and the downing of Malaysian Flight 17 this past July.

As sanctions by the West have been implemented, they have elicited incredible effects upon Russian currency, erasing more than 20 percent of its previous value. Further, the spiraling cost of energy prices have halved the Russian economic outlook for 2015, leaving the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin at a significant disadvantage in its effort to re-assert Russian influence over both Europe and Central Asia.

Should Tsipras follow through on his rhetoric and lend robust support for the removal of EU sanctions on Russia, he could relegate Greece to near-pariah status in both the EU and NATO, both organizations likely assessing a rogue Tsipras government with providing Putin with unnecessary and counterproductive influence over internal EU decisions on economic sanctions, as well as eroding the gains of NATO in carrying out its mission as the primary defense organization of the continent.

The EU and NATO will have little patience for a Greek government that undermines the progress that sanctions have elicited in the past year. As Tsipras takes the reigns of power and his government begins to demonstrate just how serious they are about calling for an end to the sanctions and upsetting the balance inside the EU, the other 27 member states will be forced to gauge just how destructive a debt-ridden Greece, supportive of the EU’s main nemesis in Moscow, can be both to the organization’s cohesiveness and to its finances. For Russia, the number of far-right parties in Europe openly supporting the removal of sanctions and tacitly supportive of Russia’s involvement in Ukraine could be force multiplied by a Greek government that explicitly condemns the sanctions and is apologetic for Russian aggression.

This could alter the geopolitical landscape of Europe in ways that would touch on economic and security stability, sending the entire continent spiraling into an intensifying conflict from which there is no easy unraveling. As the Syriza government begins to govern, these issues will begin to take priority if the recent pattern of Tsipras support for Russian foreign policy in Ukraine is any indication.

About the Author

About Vasilis Chronopoulos

Vasilis is a 5 year veteran of Greek SOF having served in 35th Mountain raiders battalion and in the Zeta amphibious raiders battalion. Now he is a freelance security contractor primarily working in the maritime security industry. Follow him on Twitter @billxronopoulos

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YankeePapa

LoneWolf6 ,
.
...Very timely. Just today I was reading a three year old item about how Socialism is working in France. They have high unemployment... and a severe shortage of taxi drivers. Odd? Not if you consider that a taxi license costs (latest figure since story) 240,000 Euros (on the books... off it can cost far more...)
.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/10/opinion/frum-paris-taxi/
.
...Small business folk... hire somebody who proves worthless... and play hell ever getting rid of him. Not as far gone as Greece... but very unhealthy.
.
...Of course, here in this country we have people just eager to adopt their system.
.
-YP-

LoneWolf6

Since I have never visited Greece, I will rely on the words of Dr. Victor Davis Hanson, a scholar/professor of Ancient Greek history who reported what he witnessed when he lived in Greece;
"I
lived in Greece for more than two years, and one of my best memories
is of a small hotelier at a seaside resort. He checked you in; he
cooked; he did the landscaping
at night; he did all the maintenance during the day. I asked him why
he didn’t hire more help, since his hotel wasn’t all that small
and he seemed to be going 24/7. What followed was a harangue about
the cost of hiring a permanent worker in Greece, the difficulty of
ever firing him if he proved worthless, and why he preferred to do
everything himself rather than fill out all sorts of forms and hire
unmotivated but tenured employees. Besides, he said, almost everyone
was on some sort of pension, disability, or government benefit, and
was unwilling to work, so his choices were either illegal immigrants
or broke foreign students. Then he launched into a blast against
socialism, and explained how he was forced to become an expert tax
dodger, how he would barter for all the transactions he could, and
why he hated the government. He finished by sighing that in Greece,
the people spend their time either devising ways to get government
money or scheming to avoid the tax collectors — or, preferably,
both.
I
think the medicine for Greece’s current crisis will prove more
unpalatable than the wasting disease."
The conservative Margaret Thatcher said, "Eventually, Socialists run out of OTHER people's money to spend." & that is the basis of what has happened here. The Greeks themselves are primarily to blame (I know, I know. I'll get "hate" responses from those who don't like to hear they're at fault) The Greeks voted in politicians who promised them the Moon & now there aren't even any Moonrocks left to give to Greeks. They thought they could party forever & not pay the consequences for their actions. Well now they are.
You can tell me I don't have a clue what I'm talking about but I'll present the "Sophy's Choice" here. The Greeks (who after, what?, 5 to 7 years of being in a financial crisis) who now have to face even more of a financial crisis because they are in between a rock and a hard place. But so are the negotiators of the EU. If Greece defaults, they will probably have to leave the EU, develop their own currency (I guess re-issue the Drachma) & it will have very small value outside of Greece. But, on top of that, Greece's economy is 65% dependent on outside income, mainly the Euro, so hyper-inflation similar to the Weimar Republic will occur. But, the negotiators for the EU lose also because if Greek leaves the EU, the EU runs the risk of crumbling, with the PIIGS nations (mainly Southern European nations) leaving the EU when they face the same crisis, which will destabilize the Euro further, causing it to tumble.
But the negotiators have no choice and this is the bottom line. Someone with PRIVATE funds has to be willing to buy Greek debt and investors have already been burned twice now by Greece. If the EU balks and bails out Greece yet again, the strong countries in the EU have to issue bonds that then banks have to buy them. The banks have to get PRIVATE INVESTORS who are willing to buy Greek debt & I don't think anybody with private money is going to be stupid enough to buy Greek debt. Therefore no bank is going to buy Greek Treasury Bonds. Right now, it appears that EU negotiators know they can't bullshit investors anymore and no one's going to buy Greek debt. Maybe the Greeks can fool the negotiators(I doubt that) & the EU can fool the banks, but NO private investor is going to buy Greek debt this time. So, unless the Elites of Greece and the EU can maintain smoke and mirrors for another year, this crisis will come to a head.
You can tell me I don't know what I'm talking about how the Greek people are either hard working or lazy but really, that has nothing to do with it. The truth is NO PRIVATE INVESTOR IS GOING TO BUY GREEK DEBT. The lesson for those of us in the US is we better get our heads our ass or we're going to face the same problem in the future because you eventually run out of other people's money to spend.

Canuck12

Great article. All the issues you point out are more than likely to arise as Syriza starts to govern though I'm curious to see what NATO and the EU are going to do to minimize damage and keep Greece at bay.
Thank you for the great information, mainstream media, in Canada at least, outdid themselves once again by not covering this HUGE shift at all.

KineticFury

Really like reading on this subject here. Good work! Hearing about the "it's complicated" relationship status of any foreign parliament is a good reminder that we have the same varied groups of people in our Congress with shady backgrounds...only under the guise of two parties.

Jackdes1

Very informative and well written. My take on Greece is that they expect everything for nothing, you could say very Democratic like some of our home grown moon-bats. With this group running things think bank failures etc. It is interesting to get everybody's take on the situation even as I watch Super Bowl pre- game hype. GO Pats

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