JEFF SCOTT: Could Animal Kingdom take the Preakness?

With the Kentucky Derby 10 days gone and the Preakness just four days away, an odd quiet has settled over the racing world. It's as if people aren't quite sure what to make of this year's Derby winner. Is Animal Kingdom another flash in the pan who has already run the best race he'll ever run, or is he a potential superstar who has only begun to show what he can do? Few opinions have been voiced at either extreme.

Given Animal Kingdom's unusual pedigree and unconventional run-up to the Derby, this wait-and-see attitude is not unexpected. Still, there are good reasons to like his chances in the Preakness.

The first reason is Animal Kingdom's sheer dominance in the Derby. He won the race while scarcely being urged, closing into soft fractions to win by almost three lengths after a terrific 47 1/5 final half-mile.

The effort didn't appear to take much out of him, at least not right after the race. Animal Kingdom was on his way around again when an outrider reined him in on the backstretch. While being ponied to the winner's circle, he was on his toes and had his ears pricked, looking ready for anything else that might be required of him that day.

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A second point is that Animal Kingdom was hardly the 20-1 longshot his post-time odds made him out to be. His past performances showed a serious racehorse that, despite a lack of experience on dirt, had a big shot in a field that included few runners likely to stay 10 furlongs. Animal Kingdom came in with two wins (at nine furlongs) and two seconds from four starts. In his runner-up finishes, both at shorter distances, he may simply have run out of room. With a bit of luck, he might have been undefeated on Derby day.

A third reason to be optimistic about Animal Kingdom's chances Saturday has to do with the modest field he'll likely face.

His main competition will almost certainly come from other horses exiting the Derby. These include Mucho Macho Man (third), Shackleford (fourth), Dialed In (eighth), Midnight Interlude (sixteenth) and probably Nehro (second). Any one of these horses could improve in the Preakness, but Animal Kingdom outkicked them all in the stretch at Churchill Downs, and there's no obvious reason why he can't do the same at Pimlico -- especially with a faster pace expected.

Based on what they've shown so far, the eight or nine non-Derby starters slated to run Saturday don't pose much of a threat. Of these, only Flashpoint has won a graded stakes this year, and that was in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes. All but Concealed Identity are coming off losing efforts.

The wild card in this year's race could be the weather. With rain predicted for much of the week in Baltimore, an off track is a possibility. And history shows that funny things have happened when the Preakness is run on a less-than-fast surface.

For example, the last two times the race was conducted on a sloppy track -- in 1983 and 1972 -- the results were two of the biggest upsets in Preakness history: Deputed Testamony (14-1) and Bee Bee Bee (18-1), respectively, a pair of locally-based horses who splashed their way to clear-cut victories.

Animal Kingdom has no experience on anything less than a fast or firm surface. But then up until 10 days ago, he had never raced on a dirt track, either.

Jeff Scott writes about horse racing Tuesday in The Saratogian. He may be reached at utahpine1@aol.com.