Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Voters think Emmer should drop it

More than two thirds of Minnesota voters think that Mark Dayton was the rightful winner of last month’s Gubernatorial election and that it’s time for Tom Emmer to concede.

68% think that Dayton was the true victor to only 21% who think it was Emmer and 11% who aren’t sure.Predictably 95% of Democrats think Dayton won and 72% of independents do as well.What might be more surprising is the numbers with Republicans.Fewer than half- 46%- think Emmer won while 37% think Dayton was actually the winner.Even within his own party there isn’t a particularly strong sentiment that Emmer really won.

The numbers on whether Emmer should concede are nearly identical.68% think it’s time for him to give up while 22% believe he should fight on and 10% aren’t sure.What might be most noteworthy about these numbers is how they compare to an April 2009 poll PPP conducted on whether it was time for Norm Coleman to concede.63% thought it was time for him to let it go while 37% thought he should fight on, for a 26 point margin in favor of concession.This time around there is a 46 point margin in favor of concession, and this is four months earlier in the process than when the Senate poll was conducted.

The protracted fight over who won the Governor’s race isn’t doing Emmer’s image any favors.49% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 37% with a positive one.It’s no surprise that Democrats are pretty universally negative toward Emmer, giving him a 4/86 favorability rating.But independents are overwhelmingly negative as well with only 30% saying they have a positive opinion of him.

At this point it's pretty clear that everyone who didn't vote for Emmer- and a fair number who did- think that Dayton won and it's time for Emmer to drop it. Whether he cares or not is a different issue.

Okay, I found your ACORN polls in question:- 26% of Americans thought that ACORN stole 2008 for Obama- 20% of Americans thought that ACORN would steal 2010 for the Democrats, despite not existing anymore.

In sum, it appears that Dayton's gubernatorial win in Minnesota by 0.5% was MORE convincing to the public than Obama's 2008 landslide victory...

- If you do poll MN again, ask two types of questions - one with the 'who was the rightful winner of the election', another with the 'Did ACORN help Dayton steal the election'? I'm curious as to if the reason behind the surprising difference was related to the leading nature of the question as well as paranoia over acorn.

- Ask the 'Did Obama legitimately win 2008'? question again in your next national poll; I'm wondering if his numbers might be higher this time, as the recent Republican landslide victory 'proves' that there was no fraud.

You can get strident partisans to say just about anything, and you'll always get 10% of people to choose even the most ridiculous answer choice (see our "is Obama the anti-Christ?" polls in 2009). For instance, a ton of Republicans, and even a good chunk of the overall public in some states, actually said the BP oil spill made them MORE likely to support oil drilling off their state. They're just reiterating their support for drilling in general, as Republicans are here for their failed candidate who continues to hang on. Which reminds me, we haven't polled on Joe Miller since the election....