Low turnout expected for sales tax vote

STOCKTON - If you're reading this, chances are good you're among a slim number of Stockton residents who will cast a vote next month deciding whether the city raises its sales tax rate.

Comment

By Scott Smith

recordnet.com

By Scott Smith

Posted Oct. 13, 2013 at 12:01 AM

By Scott Smith

Posted Oct. 13, 2013 at 12:01 AM

Coming Monday: Eric Jones spells out his vision for the Marshall Plan.

» Read more

X

Coming Monday: Eric Jones spells out his vision for the Marshall Plan.

» Social News

STOCKTON - If you're reading this, chances are good you're among a slim number of Stockton residents who will cast a vote next month deciding whether the city raises its sales tax rate.

The turnout for the Nov. 5 special election in an odd-numbered year doesn't carry the buzz of a national presidential race energized by party-politics or large organizations pouring money into advertisements.

Instead, you're deciding measures A and B, which ask Stockton residents to raise their sales tax rate by 3/4 of a cent to 9 percent.

The turnout in this hyper-local, one-issue election is expected to be low - 30 percent or less - but voters will be highly educated and have likely followed coverage closely, including in The Record, sources said.

And the measures are expected to pass, said Bob Benedetti, adjunct professor at the California State University, Sacramento, Center for California Studies and a professor emeritus at the University of the Pacific in Stockton.

"The people who will tend to turn out will be people who support it," he said. "The people who might have opposed it might have some difficulty getting their troops out."

Each vote will count.

The measures ask voters to give Stockton an additional $28 million a year. Two-thirds of it will be used to hire police and fight crime. The remaining one-third will go toward paying Stockton's debts. Its passage arms the city with cash needed to exit bankruptcy.

The opposition is led by former state Assemblyman Dean Andal and the San Joaquin County Taxpayers Association, who, based on past experiences, don't trust Stockton leaders to follow through with their promise.

The voters will ultimately decide who they believe. Thirty percent or fewer of Stockton's 120,416 registered voters, or just over 36,000 people, are expected to cast a ballot.

That's far from the historic 79 percent turnout of San Joaquin County voters in the 2008 race between then-presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain.

The low number of Stockton voters expected next month will predominantly be made up of city employees, members of the business community and upper-middle class, Benedetti said.

Endorsements have come from the Stockton City Employees Association, Stockton Professional Firefighters Local 456, Friends of the Stockton Public Library, San Joaquin Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, Greater Stockton Chamber of Commerce and Business Council of San Joaquin.

N. Allen Sawyer, a Stockton-based political consultant, said he believes the single-issue ballot will contribute to an educated electorate. Long ballots with multiple candidates and measures tend to be confusing for voters, he said.

"I think we're all guilty of going up there and saying 'What was Proposition 30 again?' " Sawyer said. "People will come here because there's only one issue. There's a good chance they'll be really knowledgeable."

The city estimated in June that the special election would cost $750,000, but San Joaquin County Registrar of Voters Austin Erdman, said it could be as low as $500,000.

Erdman wasn't ready to estimate voter turnout just yet, leaving that to the political pundits. But he urged those casting absentee ballots to drop them in the mail on or before Halloween to ensure their vote gets counted.