As I do annually, I use the last column of the year to evaluate my predictions 12 months ago.

In 2010 and 2011, I was — in hindsight — overly optimistic, expecting the economy to grab on to a silver lining in 2011 (http://goo.gl/sda5si) and that it would carry its own weight in 2012 (http://goo.gl/5wvQw7).

Last year, my prediction turned out direr when for 2013 I hoped for an end of irrational inaction (http://goo.gl/mnQtgH) while not being too confident about those prospects.

Unfortunately, not only was I right with my doubts, what transpired exceeded my worst fears. The government shutdown was only the tip of an iceberg of self-inflicted wounds making things difficult for our economy.

However, hope lasts eternal and, finally, economic and political indicators suggest some movement in the right direction.

As I wrote in my last column, the budget deal is a good first step to calmer days in Congress while the most recent growth and unemployment numbers look outright sunny when compared to what transpired throughout 2013.

Moreover, it seems the consensus of economic analysts going into 2014 is a continuation of the positive growth and employment trends. Also, the way the markets reacted to the announcement by the Federal Reserve that it would pull back on its monetary stimulus is a positive sign.

Clearly, the stock market rally following the Fed’s move represents a strong vote of confidence that the economy has regained its footing.

Globally, while China has seen a slowdown of its blistering growth numbers, it will still provide a strong and positive economic impact in the Pacific region and beyond. Also, Europe seems to have stabilized somewhat and Germany is, as ever, strongly motoring along in its center.

While all of this looks good in the short-term, it will soon be time here in the U.S. to consider our position in the world. Two reports recently published by the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics describe our dilemma. One was headlined “Higher Education R&D Expenditures Remain Flat in FY 2012” (http://goo.gl/Wyl2ww). Another was titled “Federal Funding for Research Drops by 9% in FY 2011” (http://goo.gl/kvjwaZ).

The context of this happening is increased spending on research and development in other countries, China foremost among them. While the U.S. is still the global leader in many categories of innovation, the magnitude of that lead has been shrinking rapidly and continuously.

Unless we learn the right lessons out of this relative decline, our economy will soon have much larger issues to face than year-to-year fluctuations.

Immigration reform to encourage more high-skilled newcomers, renewed concentration on R&D funding (both, directly and through business incentives) and a focus on how to improve math and science education in our K-12 system are all topics that warrant serious attention.

With all the vacillating between the old patterns of distress and the new avenues opening up for future happiness, it seems that — with new seriousness in the political system — we and the economy are set to make the right choices, to move on to a better place.

I have written almost 200 columns on this page since 2006 (this will be No. 196). I have been wrong on (more than one) occasion, but also frequently correct. Let’s hope I am right this time.

Dr. Michael Reksulak has taught economics and public finance in Georgia Southern University’s College of Business Administration. He can be contacted at MReksulak.SMN@gmail.com.