I am a New-York-based multimedia producer and journalist. One of my strongest interests is Eastern Europe and anything related to Post-Soviet territory: its richness in oligarchs, political battles, economic crises, prominent cultural figures - and the wheat. I hold my Master of Science degree, with concentration in digital media, from the Columbia University School of Journalism. Born and raised in Ukraine, I've lived in Minneapolis, Boston and, for now, I’ve settled in New York -- spending most of my time online, where the true globalization is really taking place.

Zero-Sum Game in Ukraine: President Versus The People

In just a few days, Kyiv, the normally peaceful Slavic capital, has become an epicenter of chaos and violence. The unprecedented unrest and peaceful protest in Ukraine in recent days has shifted to brutal confrontation between civilians and riot police.

Why did the uprising that started with a call for political dialogue between the people, the opposition, the president and the ruling party escalate to such extremes, leaving hundreds of people injured and at least two people dead from gunfire?

Experts agree that keeping the uprising peaceful is not in the current government’s interest. Violence is the only avenue that can keep embattled president Viktor Yanukovych and his circle in power, and escalating the conflict would be in his favor because it gives him cause to use his advantage in heavy troops.

After camping out for two months in the main square and getting nowhere, not all protesters agreed to remain peaceful. The right-wing civic group, independently of the opposition and other protesters in Maidan, decided attack the Parliament Building after the president signed a law that bans mass protests and suppresses freedom of speech and civil rights. They clashed with riot police and Grushevsky street in Kyiv quickly turned into a war zone.

Protester in Kyiv; Photo: AFP

The government officially permitted special police forces to use firearms against the protesters and has brought Interior Forces to Kyiv. Social media users reported that the main streets in the city have been evacuated; indicating that the government is ready to clear the barricaded protest site in Maidan and things could become even more brutal. This, according to reports, only prompts more and more Ukrainians to gather in the center of Kyiv.

There are several factions on the move in the streets: protesters from Maidan from all over the country; opposition parties; large groups of civilians that, allegedly, were hired by the authorities to serve as provocateurs and spike more violence; and, of course, special police forces. The leaders of the opposition parties have called for a dialogue with the president but no positive result has been reported.

Despite president Yanukovych’s reassurance that he’s interested in negotiation with opposition leaders to seek a peaceful resolution to the conflict, it appears that he sees the use of military force as his only means to stay in power.

If Yanukovych succeeds in quickly installing a heavy authoritarian rule, he has a chance to keep his presidential chair. Any democratic methods – giving in to the protesters demands to dismiss the government, create “technocratic” or temporary government and holding early presidential and parliamentary elections – would lead to his defeat. Having in his disposal riot police and external military forces gives him a substantial advantage over rebels with Molotov Cocktails and democratic slogans.

The confrontation in Kyiv is not about European integration or a pro-Russian course. It’s about keeping the people’s Constitutional right to participate in the democratic process intact.

Maidan, Kyiv, Ukraine; Photo: UKRStream

The president’s major task now is to suppress the revolution and stay in control. After all, this is what Russian president Vladimir Putin expects from him in return for a lowered gas price and the $15 bln. blank check he handed Yanukovych last December.

Despite people flocking to Kyiv from all over Ukraine to support the anti-government uprising, the entire country is not politically unified. Since pro-Yanukovych forces unleashed firearms in Kyiv, there have been no surveys yet to determine the level of support for the current rule in various regions, specifically, in the East.

Ukraine’s eastern region traditionally feels closer to Russia and until recently has demonstrated a certain loyalty to president Yanukovych. After speaking with people in Kharkiv, it becomes clear that the differences between the mindset in the Western and Central Ukraine and the East are profound, but they are evolving as the narrative of protests in Kyiv changes. Karkovities have been wary of violence in Kyiv. Some of them suspect that the revolution is organized by the U.S. State Department. They accuse people from Western Ukraine of being nationalists and radicals.

At the same time, many Karkovities – especially the middle class and business owners – would say that they don’t like the current regime and are suffering from the unlawful actions of their local authorities. Some send money to Maidan and wish for changes on the government level. There are enough reasons to think that if Yanukovych allows for early parliamentary or presidential elections, history would draw the curtain on his regime.

When a democratically elected president starts using firearms against his own people in the capital of the country, it can mean only one thing: violence is his only means of clinging to power. Escalating street protests to the level of a military conflict is Yanukovych’s way of legitimizing his brutal tactics.

Despite the bullets, the crowds of mobilized anti-Yanukovych citizens grow in Kyiv, according to social media and online publications. The Ukrainian army sent to keep them in check is only as strong as its loyalty to Yanukovych. All eyes are now on which side will show the greatest resolve.

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