There’s no question now that the Cubs will end the season without the best record in baseball. The Astros, with their scorching start, had put paid to that notion by the end of May. The question now is simple: Will the Cubs win the Central?

It’s not entirely clear. FanGraphs still likes the Cubs’ chances a fair bit, projecting them to win games at a .583 clip going forward — the fourth-best mark in the game — and end the the year at 88 wins, which would put them seven ahead of the Cardinals.

Baseball Prospectus is somewhat less bullish on the Cubs, giving the North Siders just a 57 percent shot at the division (Fangraphs has them at 79) and projecting just 85 wins for the boys in blue at season’s end, and three games up on Milwaukee.

The difference between the two projections lies in the two sites’ differing comfort level with adjusting preseason projections for what’s actually happened so far.