Asia

Nepal's election

Mountains to climb

FOR the months leading up to Nepal’s elections on November 19th, it looked as if preparations for a return to armed conflict were also under way. A breakaway Maoist group—hardliners that split from a moderate group of Maoists—had promised an “active boycott” of voting. They demanded instead an all-party roundtable conference to figure out Nepal’s future. Worried about violence, the government deployed the army for the first time since a peace agreement in 2007. Perhaps not coincidentally, India restarted supplying arms to Nepal’s armed forces, for the first time since 2005.

The Maoist boycotters managed to bring transport to a halt in most of the country for ten days prior to the election. They ran a campaign to intimidate voters using improvised bombs. Casualties, thankfully, were few. A lorry driver died from a petrol bomb attack. A child lost his hand when he opened an abandoned bag laden with explosives. Still, the bombs spread anxiety. Pessimistic pundits said the election would be impossible without a compromise with the boycotting Maoists.

Reality proved otherwise. Enthusiastic voting continued all day on November 19th. By the evening, an ebullient chief election commissioner declared that the results had set a new record. More than 70% of the country’s 12 million voters, he said, had taken part. Politicians, including the Maoists, were quick to send out congratulatory messages.

But the hope that the election would consolidate the peace process proved short-lived. By midnight on November 20th, early results showed that poll-participating Maoists were on their way to defeat. Even their supreme leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as Prachanda (pictured), lost his seat in Kathmandu. The party panicked. On the morning of November 21st—seven years to the day since the rebels signed a peace agreement—the Maoists decided to “stay away” from the new assembly unless counting was immediately suspended. The proposal was rejected outright by the election commission. Distraught party workers now claim that the ballot boxes were tampered with while being ferried by the army.

The future for Nepal’s hardline Maoists, who want to establish a communist regime—as well as for the sore losers who boycotted the election—now looks bleak. But without the Maoists’ participation, the new assembly’s prospects too have dimmed.

The focus now is on the results and the shape of the next government. Nepal has a complicated electoral system that combines a proportional party list and first-past-the-post constituencies. Early results show the Nepali Congress taking the lead, but the final tally could take a week or more. Then forming a government of elected politicians is likely to take several more weeks.

Poll-watchers suggest there is likely to be a “fractured” mandate. A royalist party that wants to bring back a form of monarchy, and make Hinduism the state religion, is likely to do better than before. It won four seats in the last 601-member Constituent Assembly but created noise disproportionate to its size. The party will attempt to reopen the issue already settled in the last assembly. Future coalitions could be divided on their stance on the federal model.

Voter enthusiasm shows that people have not given up on the Constituent Assembly to write a constitution. All parties have promised to write a new one within a year, but since they have broken many promises before, not much store should be set by that. In any case, the new Constituent Assembly has four years to write a constitution. Given parties’ notorious fondness for late-night, last-minute deal making, it appears doubtful that the process will be any quicker this time.

Legal scholars say that the interim constitution written in 2007 can barely guide the rapid political changes. It never envisioned a second assembly, for example, and was amended though a presidential decree to make the sitting Chief Justice the head of the interim government. Reforms are needed soon, to ensure that democracy does not falter.

Readers' comments

Right on!! Maoists who constantly claim to speak for the people have finally heard real people's voice. Their true colors in front of the people have finally shown. What is also shown is that they've been ruling through intimidation and no one has forgotten their mass killings and looting the state. People and international community now needs to keep a close watch to make sure people's mandate is fully followed to form stable government ASAP. And the elected parties shouldn't forget that they have a fresh referendum to write the constitution, not just follow the old federal agenda imposed upon everyone by the Maoists. They should try their best to keep the nation unified and move it forward economically.

Now that the luster of Maoists of their support, vsion of social justice for all - especailly the working class, their hollow promises of reform and acceptance of multi-party plural political in Nepal has been unmasked, it is time for the European supporters of the Maoists cause - especially the Scandinavians to rethink. Since they are good at throwing money for social change they will now need to start funding Human Rights groups so that they can make noises to advocate and ultimately ensure that Prachandra and his murderous clan be taken to the ICC in the Hague for justice. The kind of Justice Nepalese have been longing for for so long. If Charles Talyor can be punished and brought to justice for his murderous act; if the Uhuru Kenyatta, President of Kenya and Ruto the Deputy President can be taken the the ICC in the Hague; then what and who is stopping Prachandra,Baburam Bhattari and their murderous clan form being taken to the ICC. This what eh Economists should be researching......and failed to do so so far.

If these so called Maoist do not respect people's mandate they will be seen nowhere in history. It was easy for them to loot, kill innocent civilians but how difficult the agenda of peace, legal norms and universal democratic values and norms were. The world is watching them. Needless to say that the current election was one of the most successful held on so peacefully with 70% of turn outs - something that the country had never witnessed before. The United States, European Union, The United Nation as well as all the international and national observer bear testimony to this and there should be no running away for these so called "Maoists" now. The Nepalese have already suffered a lot in their hands and what is more important now is to bring these criminals to justice.