Mr Fixit’s Top Tips: Ukraine can pain Mancini

THE Nations League qualifiers are almost upon us but before then there's friendly action in Genoa tonight as Roberto Mancini chases a morale-boosting victory as Italy manager in the clash with Ukraine.

The ex-Man City boss has presided over a four-game winless run since beginning his reign with a 2-1 success over Saudi Arabia.

The Azzurri's Nations League campaign began with a 1-1 home draw with Poland and 1-0 defeat in Portugal and Mancini has pleaded for patience as the national team struggle to shake themselves out of the slump that saw them miss out on the World Cup.

Ukraine, now bossed by AC Milan legend Andriy Shevchenko, also failed to qualify for the big Russia shindig but have shown promising signs with back-to-back Nations League wins away to Czech Republic and home to Slovakia.

They're unbeaten in seven, winning five, and can trouble an Italian side who have plenty of class acts in the likes of Marco Verratti and Lorenzo Insigne but are underperforming and look short at 7-10.

Both teams have scored in five of Italy's last six and odds against is decent value for goals at both ends again.

There's also the likes of Under-19 and Under-17 Euro qualifiers today plus some non-league domestic action. HullShaker has posted tips on a Northern League tussle and look out for Greg's Slovakian Cup fancies.

Plenty of you made light work of the sparse card to make a few quid yesterday so well done all winners.

ENGLISH Football League trophy didn’t let punters down last night with a barage of goals. Slim pickings today but the Slovakian cup games have caught my eye courtesy of Skybet offering their specials markets on these games, which i am both suprised and pleased about

SKYBET specials – Slovakian Cup games

I’ve had a good look through these games and previous rounds and one thing they have in abundance is goals. Like a lot of these leagues there is a huge gulf in class between the super ligue sides and those in the lower leagues hence why you get some massive scores in this cup – lots of games with 5, 6, 7, goals

Today there are 10 games starting between 2-2.30pm with quite a few of the the super league sides playing teams from the 2nd and 3rd division – a lot of these teams will be semi-pro / part time and i reckon we’ll see another high scoring rounds of goals

Recommended Bets

Goal to be scored in the first half of the featured matches 12/1 Over 1.5 match goals 7/2 34+ Goals to be scored 6/5

The potential star of the show here is the away side Morpeth; a team very much in the ascendency and a Northeastern outfit that looks to be a growing force.

FA Vase winners in 2016-2017, Morpeth have begun this campaign with real conviction – 24 points from a possible 27 and with 2-3 games in hand on their nearest 5 rivals, they sit atop the Non-League Division One table and are the team to beat.

I won’t say I’m too familiar with the side but I’ve clocked their form a few weeks back; website checks and Twitter reccy’s tell me a lot about a teams aspirations and for the size of the club, Morpeth have a pretty impressive infastructure which reflects their recent successes and vision.

There is a great link to a ‘match preview’ on Morpeth’s feed which offers a fantastic insight into visiting side ‘Colly’s’ history as a club which, although not entirely relevant to the betting man, gives a fantastic history lesson about the hosts:

With the form, dominance and momentum they have, it may well pay to side with Morpeth but the hosts preponderence for goals in games also flags interest; 6-2-5-3-4-1-2-8-3-6 match goals in their most recent 10 is not a reflection of a tight defensive unit – add this factor in and a couple of selections shine through:

I mentioned yesterday where my gaze would be directed on Wednesday – and that hasn’t changed. I’ll be off down to the Viridor Stadium this evening to watch the Peacocks take on St Albans in an FA Cup qualifier that I hope will make up for the damp squib at Met Police/Tivvy last night.

Taunton v St Albans

A lesson learned last night is that getting timely info from the lower leagues is never a guarantee. Yesterday, I found out about two hours before kick off from a players’ twitter account that Tiverton would be taking just 14 players to the game due to a sickness bug. Missing from that contingent were two of the star performers in Saturday’s 3-3 draw, which goes some way to explaining why Tiverton sat deep and thus led to a frustrating 0-0.

Having done my research (as much as is possible, anyway) for tonight’s game, nothing has put me off the notion that there will be goals in the heart of T Town. At the weekend, my old school friend and centre midfield partner at junior level got on the scoresheet as Taunton saw off Frome 3-0. This despite resting key player Dan Sullivan, whose return from injury was delayed so that he could hopefully start tonight. Ryan Brett, sent off on Saturday, is still available with his suspension only coming in to effect next weekend. Therefore, there are no new squad or injury worries and the intention is very much to take the game seriously.

And quite simply, Taunton have started their season in brilliant form. Newly promoted, they sit 2nd after 9 games but it is their home form that stands out. 5 games unbeaten, 3 wins and 15 goals scored – and 4 clean sheets out of 5. They’ve also twice played lower league opposition in previous qualifiers, winning 7-1 and 4-0.

To say Taunton are punching above their weight is an understatement, but the signs were there two seasons ago when an impressive FA Cup run included taking National League side Barrow to a replay in the First Round proper. Those games finished (2-2) and (2-1) and, though date back some time ago, attest to manager Rob Dray’s claims that ‘we will always create chances’ no matter the opposition.

And I think National League South side St Albans are the right opposition from the goal-potential perspective. In recent seasons, they’ve regularly proved that they know where the goal is but, equally, have a susceptibility at the back. In recent times, they’ve netted in every away game since late January, while all 6 away NLS games have seen BTTS and Overs land this season. This includes a 3-2 win at a Weston side rooted to the foot of the table. In fact, St Albans average 4 goals per game this season (25 scored, 19 conceded) and have just 3/13 domestic clean sheets.

Tellingly, St Albans twice played Corinthian Casuals (same pyramid tier as Taunton) in the past week. On merit, Casuals are a much poorer side than Taunton yet bagged themselves a 1-1 draw away at St Albans. Then, on Saturday, St Albans brushed them aside 3-0 in the replay to continue their solid scoring form on the road.

I fancy Taunton to net here but I don’t see them keeping a clean sheet either. Hopefully, the goals will flow.

I don’t disagree with you mate – just interesting seeing it in black and wite like that – Cup finals is great but needs to come a point in time when after 4-5 years in charge, if no trophy has been won then has his time really been a successul one?. for a club like Liverpool, success will be measured in trophies won, especially when you move into 4 and 5 seasons in charge

Haha not at all mate – just didn’t realise he had been there as long as that.

He’s done a terrific job so far – for me though he needs to win some sort of silverware in the next few seasons. Finishing second and being cup final runners up is great progress, next step is obviously winning something

Of all the teams in the top tier, for me ( a neutral ) can only see some regular progress being made by Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham. Chelsea and Man Utd have taken a step back. You’re right, Silverware is everything, nobody remembers your runner-ups when it comes to a clubs history. The year Leicester won, it really put the cat amongst the pigeons. It meant someone, one of the bigger teams would inevitably lose out in the European qualification. It has to be good for football. You look at Burnley/Watford/Wolves, I know its only early, but if they keep doing what they’re doing, any one of those could be having a say on the places up for grabs as the season closes with regards to Europe. Again, great for football. Sadly from a betting perspective, it makes our job finding those ” bankers ” all that more difficult.

Exactly Greg I have been banging this drum all season. Fact is Liverpool have been very dull to watch this season but have had lucky way on their side. Man City are and looked a level above them on Sunday and should have won – sure someone on here said they always beat Man City lol

Another bright comment from a Sunderland fan.Liverpool have played Chelsea,Napoli,Chelsea,Man city in their last four games,i think the players are tired and have every right to be.It’s funny though acsafc you don’t mention City dropping points or Chelsea come to that,20 pts at this stage is brilliant and when the front three do click into gear (which they will) then they are going to be even more lethal.

I think the price reflects that Cucuta are already through to the play-offs, hence they may field a lesser side in this dead-rubber to rest players ahead of the more important match later on. Just my 2-cents.

Thanks for highlighting these games Greg. Never had enough time to post my picks before kickoff, but I took the goal in first half and goal in each half (66/1) – the one that was 0-0 at ht (0-1 ft), let them both down, as well as the over 1.5 and 2.5 (70/1) as every other game went over, as you say there’s always one. However, where I differed from you, was I looked at the away goals market instead of the games goals market, as I felt looking at each game individually, it offered better value, so ended up taking 29+, 31+, 33+, 35+ and 37+ away goals at 3/1, 7/1, 12/1, 25/1 and 66/1. With 38 away goals in total, it equated to an overall 700% profit from the 9 bets (4 losers, 5 winners). If I’d done even stakes across all 9 bets, it would have been even more profit, but not grumbling in the slightest. Would never have been on these games if it hadn’t been for your highlighting of the sky specials today, so thank you for your continued brilliance at spotting another set of games and specials well worth the dabble.

Brilliant stuff mate, happy to help 👏🏽 You’re spot on about away goal makets – I posted away goals for the for the first time last night in the English league trophy and definitely something worth doing in future

Slightly unorthodox bet but I’m looking for a late goal in Costa Rica – it’s not my usual modus operandi but as Greg has proven with Newcastle and other teams over the years, certain teams and games just lend themselves to a late goal.

Limon sit rock-bottom but always have the capacity to net so although it’s unlikely, they may contribute to this one – where the real potential comes from is the away side.

Herediano are pushing for a top 2 place and will leapfrog Saprissa with 3 points here – there’s plenty of appeal for them to do just that and Costa Rica’s top flight certainly favours second half goals.

One key stat that nails this one for me is that out of Herediano’s last 14 matches they have scored 24 goals – a massive 42% of those goals have come between the 75th and 90th minutes…that’s a huge proportion of their total and sits way above the expected figure.

It doesn’t stop there though – drill down even further and you’ll find that both of 2018’s H2H’s were won with goals in the 84th and 93rd minutes by a Herediano side who look a class or two above Limon!

Now it’s not often you find value from this bookie in terms of corners, if you shop around you often find much better odds elsewhere. The bookies expect a lack of goals hence the huge prices offered but I predict one way traffic in this 1st leg, I anticipate Corinthians would be more than happy taking a draw back to there own patch and I don’t envisage them sending too many bodies in search of goals whilst Cruzeiro will be desperate for a 1st leg lead, I believe Corinthians will be pretty resolute at the back, don’t concede many on there travels and I’m hoping as a result the corner tally will mount up. This is the heaviest I’ve gone ever in terms of a corner bet but I’m very confident, other bookmakers price this up differently with my main pick being priced at 8/15 at 365 and Betfair respectively. In Cruzeiros most recent affair in the Copa Libertadores, they needed goals and racked up 12 corners in the process, I’m hoping for more of the same tonight.

tonight we see a cup final without my beloved GREMIO in it and 2 sides meeting are *cruzeiro vs corinthians*

many will know from my experience and betting south america that i call corinthians the atletico madrid of brazil for a reason defensively. They are very good at defending but tonight Is different and it’s a final 1st leg away from home and they have to go for it and cruzeiro will also as they have home leg first advantage

an interesting fact as always is the last 5 games for both have saw 4 from 5 achieve 2-3 goals with cruzeiro reading 1-1 3-1 not 2 or 3 1-1 2-1 2-0

corinthians reading 0-3 0-0 not 2 or 3 2-1 1-1 2-1

I feel corinthians are way over priced tonight considering they arent winning the league and cruzeiro have only scored 8 goals in their last 10 games and conceded more than that.

I have checked the time of the goals also and 15/22 games have saw a goal scored after the 62nd minute which again is common enough in brazil with goals either been real early then none or else real late like we saw with GREMIO and sao paulo both 90 plus goals in our last brazil naps

with all this in mind I have taken 3 markets tonight and I am going to go a level stake on 2 of them nap is the 2-3 *****************************************

Spotted this game and got a little hunch. H2H for goals is excellent despite current form of both sides. If I’ve learnt one thing over my betting years, it’s that great (or terrible!) H2H stats can’t be ignored, even over recent form.

Got 5 free spins off SkyVegas and got a whole £1.26….Fired it on a RAB double at Italy that won(BTTS, 1+ corner each team each half & 10+ BP’s each team) at 9/1. Doubled it up wi the usual combo for £100+ at Cruizero Corinthians in the Brazillian Cup game that’s live on freesports but can’t see me still being awake for.

BTTS, 4+ corners & 20+ BP’s each team has come up in Cruizero last 3 home games.

Same combo has came in last 2 H2H’s at Cruizero and game before that was 1 home card out.

Only been 1 goal in Corinthians last 3 away games, last 2 0-0 and beat by Palmeiras 3 games ago. Games before that the combo came in though.

Also it’s the 1st leg of the Copa do Brasil final so hoping for an end to end game. Cue the 1-0 😂