James O'Brien

Hockey Daily Dose

Kings Sized Problems

Following Sidney Crosby’s career through the eyes of public opinion has been a really intriguing process. There’s a duality to the way people view Crosby that might strike at the heart of how different hockey fans are.

In the mainstream media, Crosby is what he (honestly) should be in some ways: the golden boy. Sometimes the fawning goes a little overboard, at least in the way he overshadows Evgeni Malkin. Let’s face the facts: Geno isn’t a footnote to Crosby and he’s not Robin to his Batman. He’s close, if not his equal or even better - maybe it even depends on when you’re asking the question.

On the other hand, many in the Twitterverse have grown to dislike Crosby because of all the attention lavished upon him and the way he acted during his earlier years in the NHL. (Personally, I think he’s done a good job to tone down the theatrics.) Those folks just don’t want to hear more Paul Bunyan stories about him.

With that in mind, it actually only really dawned on me recently that Crosby is just KILLING IT right now. After Sunday’s action, he’s at 24 points - just one behind Thomas Vanek’s leading 25 - but it’s his ferocious February that really boggles the mind. He’s had five(!) three-point games and there are still five more contests left on the Penguins’ February schedule. Amazing.

It’s not a totally new development, yet Crosby’s trigger-happy evolution is especially interesting (Malkin, too, started firing a ton of SOG last season). He has an astounding 61 SOG in 14 games. Alex Ovechkin used to kill Crosby in that category, but now he only has three more … and that’s in 15 games.

It seems redundant to talk about the Blackhawks’ greatness at this point, but Ray Emery might be worth at least a short-term grab in deeper leagues. With a 5-0-0 record, he could just steal a start or two from Corey Crawford. Even if he doesn’t, Crawford likely needs a little time to heal … Brandon Dubinsky is day-to-day with a knee injury, which is a shame because he was heating up … Both Milan Lucic and J.S. Giguere took time off for personal reasons this weekend. Giguere’s might have been more damaging, because as much I like Semyon Varlamov’s skill, Giguere seemed primed to steal a few starts here and there with Colorado’s struggles … Tobias Enstrom hurt his shoulder on Friday (or at least his right arm). The Winnipeg Jets’ defense just can’t catch a break, unless you mean it in a literal way … Rick Nash played - and played well - yet he was a game-time decision on Sunday. At least keep an eye on that … Radim Vrbata is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury … If you have some disposable roster space, why not take a shot at Jake Allen? He’s now on a three-game winning streak and Ken Hitchcock has a knack for getting the most from out-of-left-field goalies lately (see: Steve Mason, Pascal Leclaire to an extent and Brian Elliott) … Ryan Kesler debuted this weekend and did fine: a goal and an assist in two games … Braden Holtby’s grip on the Capitals’ starting job should be stronger, even in defeat, as he stopped 38 out of 40 shots against the Rangers on Sunday … Don’t jump on Brendan Gallagher after a two-point Saturday; he suffered a concussion during that game … Hey, Shea Weber scored a goal everybody! (Confetti falls from the ceiling.)

* - It still feels wrong not to call it WWF.

In a way, Sunday’s game against the Chicago Blackhawks was a microcosm of the Los Angeles Kings’ difficult 2013 season.

HUMBLING BEGINNINGS

Things started off disastrously in the two teams’ second NBC weekend afternoon matchup, which is a lot like the way things began for the Kings when the Blackhawks rattled their cage on banner-raising day in January. Really, though, it’s also reminiscent of the way things began for Los Angeles in general: with tough opponents rattling an over-matched Jonathan Quick to the disbelief of onlookers.

Judging by their paltry 5-6-2 record, you’d think that the Kings just curled up in the fetal position. Through the second period, that largely seemed true as the Blackhawks outshot them by a ridiculous 21-10 margin.

SHOWING SOME FIGHT

But much like their quietly improving overall play, the defending champions actually showed glimpses of the dominant team that never even faced elimination in the 2012 playoffs. Mike Richards scored two power-play goals (he’s a solid add if you’re in a shallower league where he might be on the waiver wire, by the way) to morph what looked like a laugher into a nail-biter. The Blackhawks exhaled and won the game in regulation, yet there was at least a sign of a pulse.

Then again, maybe Chicago and the West simply exhaled and said: games like these might just keep the dangerous Kings from being a terrifying eighth seed once more.

Time will tell for all of that, but even as I soften the blow on the Kings as a whole, it’s time to evaluate the 2012 champions’ go-to guys to see who deserves the most blame.

THE GREAT AMERICAN BREAKOUT CURSE

Usually I like to back up theories with hard stats and measured logic, but every now and then, it’s nice to throw some mystical mumbo jumbo into the mix.* After all, reading about and discussing sports with a perma-furrowed brow or while projecting the image of a polished elite smoking a pipe in a robe kind of defeats the point of gabbing about sports, doesn’t it?

(Perma-furrowed brow thinking does tend to win championships, although I think a few weird notions can help you identify bizarre trends … or at least entertain yourself more than hurtling toward victory with cyborg-like tunnel vision.)

Anyway, I have a few quirky things I weigh heavily that are grounded in roundabout reason, like contract years. On the other hand, there’s a fun thing that might become “The Madden Curse” for hockey goalies; I like to call it The Great American Goalie Breakout Curse.

For my money, here’s how it’s played out so far:

Tim Thomas (twice): First, Thomas won the Vezina and then lost his starting job to Tuukka Rask (and required hip surgery). He then had one of the greatest seasons a goalie’s ever seen (a Vezina-Conn Smythe-Stanley Cup-save percentage record bonanza) and then had the bizarre White House photo-op/transfer to his Colorado bunker meltdown. Maybe this is self-induced stuff, but don’t people in movies usually wrong some mystic to get cursed anyway?**

Ryan Miller - Miller went from a Vezina Trophy and silver medal-winning season to struggling in 2010-11 and getting bull-rushed by Milan Lucic last season. OK, my theory with Miller is that he played way over his head for one year and is just being himself (complete with a save percentage hovering around .916) now, but still …

This then makes way to Quick (although Craig Anderson is an interesting case study in his Jekyll & Hyde career so far; one almost expects another chicken-cutting mishap since his 2012-13 has been so dominant).

One could argue Quick had been working up to last season's masterpiece. In his first workhorse season in 2009-10 (72 GP), he registered a .907 save percentage; in 2010-11 he jumped to .918 in 61 games. That made way for 2011-12, when he rocked a sterling .929 save percentage in 69 games and topped that with his ridiculous .946 mark in the 2012 playoffs.

Since then, a few big problems cropped up. The one that worried me the most going into 2013 was his offseason surgery, but he also lost the (in my opinion) key dangling carrot of monetary motivation by signing a 10-year, $58 million contract extension that kicks in next season. The cap hit might not activate until 2013-14, but the security has to be in the back of his mind - somewhere.

Add those factors to the sag that can come with the lockout (wouldn’t you want to keep the momentum going if you were the Kings and Quick in particular?) and maybe we shouldn’t be so stunned that Quick is struggling. But I am, just like many - maybe most - of you.

Even with all of those variables going the wrong way, the sheer depth of his struggles is daunting.

He's 3-5-2 with an abhorrent .895 save percentage and a middling 2.74 GAA. Zero shutouts, which isn't a surprise, but you'd almost hope he'd make the most of his three wins. He's on a three-game losing streak in which he's allowed nine goals. Things are just grim.

An optimist - no, an opportunist - might shine a light on his buy-low potential, but would most Quick owners tolerate seeing him finally blossom on someone else’s roster? Maybe it’s worth a look, but don’t kick a dead horse, either.

After the jump: other key Kings plus discussion regarding the rest of the NHL.

* - Yes, I was close to using the phrase “mumbo jumbo into the gumbo.” Don’t judge too harshly, please.

** - This might really just be my takeaway from the trailer of the movie “Thinner.” Or maybe even Goosebumps books.

DOUBTING DOUGHTY

While Quick’s struggles have damaged far more fantasy teams, Drew Doughty’s struggles are frustrating for an array of reasons. And not just because I foolishly went out on a limb by picking him as my preseason Norris Trophy winner.

(Hey, you have to go bold at least a few times. Otherwise, you’re just a robot spitting out Zdeno Chara every year. Although robots spitting out Zdeno Chara is a weird and awesome mental image, isn’t it?)

Anyway, after seeing Doughty score 14 points in 20 playoff games and generally looking worthy of the $7 million cap hit he’s registering. Doughty's two third period assists made his scoring numbers look a little more respectable (six points - all apples - in 13 games), but his -11 rating is troubling. As much as I tend to roll my eyes at that stat, it makes one wonder if Doughty misses Willie Mitchell, who absorbed many difficult minutes for the Kings (and doesn't appear hasty to return).

You’d like to see more than 27 shots in 13 contests from a guy who’s struggling, even if they’re just getting angry and just firing the puck-type shots. It’s probably unfair to say that Doughty isn’t trying, but we’re getting to the point where it’s safe to shrug your shoulders at his fantasy value.

Yet, that talent is still so transfixing …

THE REST OF THE KINGS

Anze Kopitar - His nine points in 12 games are OK, but his limited peripheral offerings (eight PIM, just 19 SOG) make him a letdown since he likely went early. He might just be in the better in reality than fantasy club.

Richards - Again, I like him, even if he won't stay on a hot streak forever.

Jeff Carter - He's been a pure sniper; six goals and just one assist so far. His 35 SOG make me think he's a nice sleeper pick. Still, you want more than a point every other game considering his often-overlooked skills.

Dustin Brown - Gotta love the 44 SOG, but it's surprising to see him ranked fifth on his team with 28 hits.

Dustin Penner - He was an intriguing gamble, but his lack of production is almost as annoying as that sticky-hand feeling you can get if you eat pancakes too recklessly.

Overall, the Kings have been indisputably disappointing in fantasy, even if some guys seem like they should improve. (Doughty probably won’t go 0-for-27 too often.)

One more jump for the rest of the NHL …

CROSBY RISES

Following Sidney Crosby’s career through the eyes of public opinion has been a really intriguing process. There’s a duality to the way people view Crosby that might strike at the heart of how different hockey fans are.

In the mainstream media, Crosby is what he (honestly) should be in some ways: the golden boy. Sometimes the fawning goes a little overboard, at least in the way he overshadows Evgeni Malkin. Let’s face the facts: Geno isn’t a footnote to Crosby and he’s not Robin to his Batman. He’s close, if not his equal or even better - maybe it even depends on when you’re asking the question.

On the other hand, many in the Twitterverse have grown to dislike Crosby because of all the attention lavished upon him and the way he acted during his earlier years in the NHL. (Personally, I think he’s done a good job to tone down the theatrics.) Those folks just don’t want to hear more Paul Bunyan stories about him.

With that in mind, it actually only really dawned on me recently that Crosby is just KILLING IT right now. After Sunday’s action, he’s at 24 points - just one behind Thomas Vanek’s leading 25 - but it’s his ferocious February that really boggles the mind. He’s had five(!) three-point games and there are still five more contests left on the Penguins’ February schedule. Amazing.

It’s not a totally new development, yet Crosby’s trigger-happy evolution is especially interesting (Malkin, too, started firing a ton of SOG last season). He has an astounding 61 SOG in 14 games. Alex Ovechkin used to kill Crosby in that category, but now he only has three more … and that’s in 15 games.

It seems redundant to talk about the Blackhawks’ greatness at this point, but Ray Emery might be worth at least a short-term grab in deeper leagues. With a 5-0-0 record, he could just steal a start or two from Corey Crawford. Even if he doesn’t, Crawford likely needs a little time to heal … Brandon Dubinsky is day-to-day with a knee injury, which is a shame because he was heating up … Both Milan Lucic and J.S. Giguere took time off for personal reasons this weekend. Giguere’s might have been more damaging, because as much I like Semyon Varlamov’s skill, Giguere seemed primed to steal a few starts here and there with Colorado’s struggles … Tobias Enstrom hurt his shoulder on Friday (or at least his right arm). The Winnipeg Jets’ defense just can’t catch a break, unless you mean it in a literal way … Rick Nash played - and played well - yet he was a game-time decision on Sunday. At least keep an eye on that … Radim Vrbata is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury … If you have some disposable roster space, why not take a shot at Jake Allen? He’s now on a three-game winning streak and Ken Hitchcock has a knack for getting the most from out-of-left-field goalies lately (see: Steve Mason, Pascal Leclaire to an extent and Brian Elliott) … Ryan Kesler debuted this weekend and did fine: a goal and an assist in two games … Braden Holtby’s grip on the Capitals’ starting job should be stronger, even in defeat, as he stopped 38 out of 40 shots against the Rangers on Sunday … Don’t jump on Brendan Gallagher after a two-point Saturday; he suffered a concussion during that game … Hey, Shea Weber scored a goal everybody! (Confetti falls from the ceiling.)