Wednesday, March 7, 2018

This is the most important thing to happen in some time. The students who are organizing this are truly the best we can be, and deserve tremendous credit. Congress has failed to deal with anything related to gun control. It couldn't even bring itself to ban bump stocks. Inaction translates to disregard for the lives of innocents.

The U.S. deployment of B-2 bombers to Guam signals nothing. The U.S. has deployed B-2 bombers to Guam for years. Andersen Air Force Base is only base in the Western Pacific capable of supporting large bombers, such as the B-52.

The Business Insider story doesn’t back up the flame-bait headline, because it can't. President Donald Trump’s strategy on North Korea is unclear. But if you want insights into what Trump might do please read “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump.”

This book is a collection of essays by 27 psychiatrists and mental health experts. This community follows the Goldwater Rule, a professional guideline that prohibits mental health professionals from diagnosing a public official without examining the person. But with Trump, a counter-movement has emerged called “Duty to Warn.”

“Duty to Warn” argues that psychiatrists already have a responsibility to alert authorities if a patient informs them, for instance, of a plan to commit a violent act. The psychiatrist believe they have a similar duty about Trump because his behavior is putting the nation at risk. The authors president a formidable case against Trump as unstable.

The consensus view on North Korea is any military action will be horrific and will risk nuclear confrontation. What really scares is the possibility that Trump will goad North Korea’s leader into doing something reckless -- something that gives U.S. a thin reason to take military action. This administration may be hunting for justification.

If not for North Korea, a leading area of concern might be China's island and military base building in the South China Sea. An excellent book on that risk is “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap,” by Graham Allison.

Sending some B-2 bombers to Guam tells us nothing about Trump or the U.S. plan, if there is one. But the real danger here isn’t North Korea or China. It's our leadership and its very real potential for bad decision making.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

President's Trump's threat to deliver "fire and fury" to North Korea does have one benefit for Guam. Namely, people are learning a few things about the island.

Many of the news stories point out that, yes, Guam is a part of the United States, its people are U.S. citizens, and some even note that a high percentage of them have served in the military.

Guam Gov. Eddie Calvo is making the best of it.

Calvo was on the Tucker Carlson show on Fox. He voiced support for Trump's fire and fury comment, but also took this as an opportunity to point out that Guam is no different than Honolulu or the West Coast, according to a report in The Hill.

People in the states are largely uninformed about Guam. Many don't realize that it's part of the U.S., and few are aware of Guam's status as a territory.

Most do not know that Guam is a legacy of American colonization. Guam never had a choice in this decision to become part of the U.S.

America needs to know more about Guam. It's people can't vote for a president and it's representative in Congress is non-voting. The island -- because of its status -- fights to be heard in Washington.

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

It isn't North Korea that Guam should worry about, but President Donald Trump.

Trump is the unknown. His warning to deliver to North Korea "fire and fury like the world has never seen" is scary. We don't know what Trump will actually do.

The threat makes Trump look weak because he is unlikely to carry it out. North Korea knows this, hence its response to threaten Guam.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrived at Guam shortly after to explain Trump's comment. He characterized it as Trump's way of "sending a strong message to North Korea in language Kim Jong Un would understand," reported the Washington Post.

Trump's words -- "fire and fury" -- raises anxiety for everyone, but I believe it's more acute on Guam. There's no place to go.

The U.S. has to find non-military ways of dealing with North Korea. There's no choice in the matter. The alternative is too frightening. But is Trump capable of true leadership?

Trump seems to lack self-restraint. The fact that Tillerson stopped on Guam to dampen Trump's fire and fury comment tells you that Trump went too far. What we don't know is how far Trump is willing to go with North Korea.

Sunday, May 28, 2017

A
prediction: Casino gambling on Saipan will lead to a casino on Guam.

I’d
bet on it.

Saipan’s
new casino will siphon tourist traffic. As time goes on, Guam lawmakers will
face pressure to allow a casino.

What
will happen in Micronesia, has happened in the U.S. Let’s take New England as
an example.

Connecticut
allowed casino gambling after reaching an agreement in 1992 with the
Mashantucket Pequots. Slot machines were illegal in the state and the Pequots
needed state approval for them. The state agreed to slot machines in exchange
for 25% of the revenue.

The
Pequots opened a Las Vegas-style casino, Foxwoods, which became very
profitable. It was the only casino in New England.

This
put pressure on neighboring states to open casinos. Rhode Island now has a
casino and Massachusetts is building them as well.

Gamblers
have little loyalty to any casino. They will go to the casino closest to them.
This helps drive the growth of casinos. State lawmakers don’t want their
residents gambling in a neighboring state.

Guam
and Saipan are only separated by 135 miles. For travelers from China and Japan
there is little difference in travel time. They might as well be neighboring
states.

Saipan’s
Imperial Pacific may generate more investment and tourism. This may be to
Guam’s disadvantage.

As
Saipan tourism grows, Guam’s lawmakers will feel compelled to take up the
casino issue. The arguments will be powerful. A casino will provide a viable
alternative for tourists considering Saipan.

But
casinos impose a terrible cost. Having a casino on Guam will lead to problem
gambling. They bring ruin to vulnerable families. Casino’s operate 24 x 7. This
will increase the drunk driving risks. Crime may rise as well.

Opposition
on Guam to a casino will be fierce. Guam’s faith community will issue strong
warnings about the damage to families. Religious leaders may succeed in holding
Guam back. But the Saipan casino, especially if it's successful, will be corrosive on public debate. As
time goes on, lawmaker resistance weakens.

The
casino debate in Massachusetts lasted some two decades. The resistance of
lawmakers to casinos has all but collapsed in America. Indeed, President Donald
Trump was a casino operator.

Friday, May 12, 2017

I arrived on Guam from the East Coast and had never experienced an earthquake tremor. The first was in the barracks. I was on the top rack and had a clear view of the ceiling from end to end. The tremor was jarring. The two opposite ends of the barracks appeared to twist in different directions. A few things fell off the shelves. It quickly ended and it hardly got a mention from the people who had been there a while.

Low-level tremors are common on Guam. If you stay on Guam for any length of time you'll experience one. Bigger earthquakes are possible. An earthquake on August 8, 1993, reached 8.1 magnitude. It damaged some hotels and but the disruption to the island was short-lived. Much smaller earthquakes have caused more damage in the U.S.

Experiences with typhoons -- which destroyed most of the wood-framed housing -- ushered in reinforced concrete construction. Most houses on Guam are of a pillbox design, low to the ground with flat roofs, and intended to resist typhoons. This also improves their capability to withstand earthquakes.

There are few buildings on Guam that pre-date the 1960s. There is very little construction pre-dating that time period. The 1963 typhoon Karen leveled the island, literally. It destroyed 95 percent of the homes. But Guam was able to rebuild to modern standards.

About me

I write about Guam from a Washington DC perspective, my current home. This blog, launched in 2006, focuses on policy issues, the military and the build-up, economics and environment. I lived on Guam as part of nearly three year Navy tour there. I've been back since for a short visit and hope to make another soon enough. In the meantime, this blog is a simple way to write about one of the world's most beautiful and friendly places, and to help draw attention to U.S. role on the island.

[This blog had to be rehosted in 2016. Lost its links and followers list. In reposting old archives, I cut about half of content. Some of it seemed dated.]