No statistic to suggest Trout shouldn't steal more

That depends on your perspective, as there are sabermetric arguments to be made both ways. We’ll lay them each out here and let you decide which one makes more sense.

First, the facts: Through 55 games, Trout has six stolen bases on six attempts, meaning he’s tried to steal fewer times than several players, like the Rangers’ Alex Rios and the Brewers’ Jean Segura, have been caught. Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso, one of the slowest non-catchers in the majors, has tried to steal as many times as Trout.

At this point last season, Trout had 12 steals on 15 attempts. At this point in 2012, when he finished with 49 stolen bases, he had 22 steals on 25 tries.

So, yeah, his steals are way down. Baseball-wide, runners have tried to steal about once every 48 plate appearances this season, and Trout’s taken off once every 42.

The argument against him stealing more, as it is commonly stated, goes as follows: Albert Pujols, the guy almost always hitting behind him, is too much of a power threat to justify risking an out on the basepaths to get into so-called scoring position. There is validity to that.

In 2014, Pujols has 30 singles, hits which would generally score Trout only after a steal, and 29 doubles and homers, hits which, we can presume, would score Trout regardless of a steal. (Pujols has also taken Trout off the bases on a double-play groundout seven times this year.)

Sabermetricians have found a definite connection between power and a lessened temptation to steal. Put another way, the more homers the players behind you hit, the higher a success rate you need to justify attempted steals.

Based on a break-even formula created by Fangraphs.com, at the well-above-average rate Pujols is hitting homers, Trout would need to be successful at a 78.1 percent rate to make stealing worth his while, compared to 67 percent for most major leaguers.

Here’s the thing, though: For his career, Trout is an 88.5 percent basestealer — only, you know, the best rate since at least 1951 for anyone with more than 15 attempts. He has never been caught on consecutive tries.

Given that, even with the increased attention pitchers and catchers pay to him now compared to his rookie year, it’s hard to believe he couldn’t steal, say, 80 percent.

Which brings us to another matter: If Trout indeed can beat the break-even rate, there’s another advantage it’d provide besides just an extra base. There exists evidence that aggressive baserunning leads to hitters seeing more fastballs.

Writing at FoxSports.com, Ben Lindbergh found that the hitters behind the league’s 25 most aggressive runners get 4.3 percent more first-pitch fastballs — regardless of whether or not those runners actually attempt to steal.

That’s a significant increase, one that can help hitters, at least according to Cincinnati’s Joey Votto, who told Fangraphs.com he has noticed more fastballs when speedster Billy Hamilton is on base in front of him.

There also exists evidence that stealing can distract hitters and lead to worse performances, but Pujols dismissed that idea in an April interview with the Register’s Jeff Fletcher.

If that’s not the case and Trout is healthy, there doesn’t appear to be a viable reason why he shouldn’t be attempting to steal more often, at least at his 2013 rate, if not 2012.