Democratization in the Arab World

At Feb. 25, 2011, rally in Tahrir Square, demonstrators erected a cubical structure (background) that shows photos of those who died during the 18 days of anti-government demonstrations that began on Jan. 25, 2011.

Many past studies of democratization and democracy consolidation have written off the Arab and Muslim world as a region with little potential for democratization. Samuel Huntington famously argues that Islam and “Western” standards of democracy are incompatible in his book “The Clash of Civilizations,” and, more recently, Jan Teorell’s 2010 work concludes that “having a predominantly Muslim population … is a factor that appears to impede democratization.”

In a 2011 assessment of the Arab world, Ibrahim Elbadawi and Samir Makdisi reach similar conclusions. They argue that the Middle East’s dramatic lack of democracy compared to other regions is the result of heavily oil-based economies, gender discrimination and the impact of regional conflicts despite rising levels of economic development and modernization. No matter how democracy is measured or assessed, the fact remains that the Arab world faced numerous deficits in education, infrastructure, technology, governance and women’s issues.

Yet the uprisings that began in Tunisia at the end of 2010 and spread across the Middle East have refocused political attention on a region known for autocratic rule and inconsistent social and political freedoms. The uprisings prove, as some researchers have already claimed, that no region is immune to political transition, or at least calls for reforms, democratic policies, and increased representation and liberty. The mass mobilizations also demonstrate that it was not the lack of desire for greater freedoms or standards of democracy, but rather the resilience of the regimes, that prevented transitions. Therefore, it is unsurprising that the 2011 Arab uprisings have been called the greatest challenge to authoritarian rulers since the fall of the Soviet Union.

As of the writing of this report, the Arab uprisings have not yet concluded. Some citizens in the region are still attempting to overthrow their governments or demanding reforms. Many of the countries that have successfully overthrown the leaders of their regimes are in “the gray zone,” moving away from dictatorships but still in a transitional phase filled with ambiguity. It is therefore important to assess the democratization occurring in the Arab world knowing now that transitions can and are still taking place in the region. This analysis will focus on the variables present in the region pre-transition, and on how these conditions attributed to democratization in some parts of the region. This study will primarily address the first step in the democratization process: the breaking with authoritarian rule. Specifically, it examines why some countries in the Arab world started to transition, and why some regimes are resilient in the face of momentous regional change.