Consensus Report

Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts (2016)

Each report is produced by a committee of experts selected
by the Academy to address a particular statement of task and
is subject to a rigorous, independent peer review; while the
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Extending weather and ocean forecasts to predict Earth system conditions weeks to months in advance will help decision makers plan ahead to save lives, protect property, and increase economic vitality -- but, currently, the accuracy, skill, and scope of such extended forecasts is limited. This report presents the vision that, in the next decade, subseasonal to seasonal forecasts (those made two weeks to 12 months in advance) will be as widely used as short-term weather forecasts are today. To advance toward that vision, the report presents a research agenda that emphasizes increasing the skill of forecasts; expanding the breadth of forecasted variables; improving the prediction of extreme and disruptive events; and bringing researchers and decision makers together to develop more actionable forecasts.