Sudan

POPULATION

Population information for Sudan has been limited, but in
1990 it was clear that the country was experiencing a high birth
rate and a high, but declining, death rate. Infant mortality was
high, but Sudan was expected to continue its rapid population
growth, with a large percentage of its people under fifteen years
of age, for some time to come. The trends indicated an overall
low population density. However, with famine affecting much of
the country, internal migration by hundreds of thousands of
people was on the increase. The United Nations High Commissioner
for Refugees reported that in early 1991, approximately 1,800,000
people were displaced in the northern states, of whom it was
estimated that 750,000 were in Al Khartum State, 30,000 each in
Kurdufan and Al Awsat states, 300,000 each in Darfur and Ash
Sharqi states, and 150,000 in Ash Shamali State. Efforts were
underway to provide permanent sites for about 800,000 of these
displaced people. The civil war and famine in the south was
estimated to have displaced up to 3.5 million southern Sudanese
by early 1990.

In addition to uncertainties concerning the number of
refugees, population estimates were complicated by census
difficulties. Since independence there have been three national
censuses, in 1955-56, 1973, and 1983. The first was inadequately
prepared and executed. The second was not officially recognized
by the government, and thus its complete findings have never been
released. The third census was of better quality, but some of the
data has never been analyzed because of inadequate resources.

The 1983 census put the total population at 21.6 million with
a growth rate between 1956 and 1983 of 2.8 percent per year (see
table 2, Appendix). In 1990, the National Population Committee
and the Department of Statistics put Sudan's birthrate at 50
births per 1,000 and the death rate at 19 per 1,000, for a rate
of increase of 31 per 1,000 or 3.1 percent per year. This is a
staggering increase; compared with the world average of 1.8
percent per year and the average for developing countries of 2.1
percent per annum, this percentage made Sudan one of the world's
fastest growing countries. The 1983 population estimate was
thought to be too low, but even accepting it and the pre-1983
growth rate of 2.8 percent, Sudan's population in 1990 would have
been well over 25 million. At the estimated 1990 growth rate of
3.1 percent, the population would double in twenty-two years.
Even if the lower estimated rate were sustained, the population
would reach 38.6 million in 2003 and 50.9 million by 2013.

Both within Sudan and among the international community, it
was commonly thought that with an average population density of
nine persons per square kilometer, population density was not a
major problem. This assumption, however, failed to take into
account that much of Sudan was uninhabitable and its people were
unevenly distributed, with about 33 percent of the nation's
population occupying 7 percent of the land and concentrated
around Khartoum and in Al Awsat. In fact, 66 percent of the
population lived within 300 kilometers of Khartoum (see
table 3,
Appendix). In 1990 the population of the Three Towns (Khartoum,
Omdurman, and Khartoum North) was unknown because of the constant
influx of refugees, but estimates of 3 million, well over half
the urban dwellers in Sudan, may not have been unrealistic.
Nevertheless, only 20 percent of Sudanese lived in towns and
cities; 80 percent still lived in rural areas.

The birthrate between the 1973 census and the 1987 National
Population Conference appeared to have remained constant at from
48 to 50 births per 1,000 population. The fertility rate (the
average number of children per woman) was estimated at 6.9 in
1983. Knowledge of family planning remained minimal. During the
period, the annual death rate fell from 23 to 19 per 1,000, and
the estimated life expectancy rose from 43.5 years to 47 years.

For more than a decade the gross domestic product
(
GDP--see Glossary)
of Sudan had not kept pace with the increasing
population, a trend indicating that Sudan would have difficulty
in providing adequate services for its people. Moreover, half the
population were under eighteen years of age and therefore were
primarily consumers not producers. Internal migration caused by
civil war and famine created major shifts in population
distribution, producing overpopulation in areas that could
provide neither services nor employment. Furthermore, Sudan has
suffered a continuous "brain drain" as its finest professionals
and most skilled laborers emigrated, while simultaneously there
has been an influx of more than 1 million refugees, who not only
lacked skills but required massive relief. Droughts in the 1970s,
1980s, and 1990s have undermined Sudan's food production, and the
country would have to double its production to feed its expected
population within the next generation. In the absence of a
national population policy to deal with these problems, they were
expected to worsen.

Moreover, throughout Sudan continuous environmental
degradation accompanied the dearth of rainfall. Experts estimated
that desertification caused by deforestation and drought had
allowed the Sahara to advance southward at the rate of ten
kilometers per year. About 7.8 million Sudanese were estimated to
be at risk from famine in early 1991, according to the United
Nations World Food Program and other agencies. The Save the
Children Fund estimated that the famine in Darfur would cost the
lives of "tens of thousands" of people in the early 1990s.
Analysts believed that the lack of rainfall combined with the
ravages of war would result in massive numbers of deaths from
starvation in the 1990s.