Monday, April 18, 2011

Latest Polling

A rash of polls this morning, with somewhat different results. Nanos, Angus Reid and Leger. One thing all agree on is that the NDP are doing quite well in Quebec, all show positive movement. Leger I find interesting for their Quebec results, but their online survey isn't something I put much stock outside of the province. Angus Reid's online survey does have a good track record, so I give it more credence. Nanos is one of my favourites, so when sifting through, I don't treat all as equal, as others tend to. For myself, I key in on Nanos, EKOS, Angus Reid and Harris Decima. People will note, historically, Angus Reid one of the kinder pollsters for Conservative support, so there is no partisan consideration here, just an attempt to go with what I perceive as past reliability.

All the polls put the NDP in second in Quebec, Angus Reid 26%, both Nanos and Leger 24%, pretty heady numbers. The Liberals are in serious trouble in Quebec, no question, and it will need attention heading down the stretch. At the beginning of the campaign, there were prospects for Liberal pickups in Quebec, that seems less likely now, unless we capture attention.

Quebec bolsters the NDP national numbers with all the pollsters. Angus Reid sees a national tie, a very new development for this outfit. The terrific result for the NDP comes with one caution, Angus Reid notes extremely soft support, although that isn't really surprising if you have recently picked up voters. The conclusion with this poll, NDP a force, but precarious.

Nanos finds no such national surge for the NDP, if anything, outside of Quebec, the post debate bounce is waning. The NDP are below 2008 totals nationally, regionally in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, all far more important to their overall fortunes. If you take Nanos as accurate, rather than a good NDP situation, they look vulnerable. One incredibly important point, while the NDP are doing well in Quebec, they have ZERO ground game by all accounts, relative to competition, a large factor. Couple that with soft Quebec support, and if these numbers don't deliver, it's not the rosy picture first blush suggests. In addition, best case scenario that I can decifer, the NDP might pickup up at 2-5 seats type result. You look at other regionals, and I see a net negative, so important to look at the NDP in balance.

For the Liberals, one region is intriguing. Despite daily ebbs and flows with Nanos, at no time have the Liberals dipped to 2008 levels in British Columbia, always marginal to significantly above. By contrast the NDP have consistently been below their 2008 total, so despite the large MOE with this province, a clear pattern has emerged. The Liberals could pick up a few seats in British Columbia. The Conservatives have shown some weakness, but there are plenty of NDP/Con battles, wherein a weaker NDP could work to their advantage as well. British Columbia is shaping up to be fascinating, heading down the final stretch.

Overall, NDP supporters have polls to crow about and that is important with a receptive media. The fact Nanos shows below 2008 totals is contradictory, and actually concerning for the NDP overall. Let's just say it's "fluid" to reconcile.

If the Grits wish to cause problems for the NDP in Quebec, the answer is simple. Launch ads showing how many of the dipper candidates there are sovereigntists. Also translate what Layton said about bill 101 a few days back.

Notice the poll numbers for the Grits and HarperCons have not changed much despite the NDP 'surge'? There is a reason, the dippers are attracting votes from the Bloc. Now what possible message could they be giving to do that?

It's funny as well, the Libs have COMPLETELY ignored the NDP, yet the NDP are RUNNING ADS against Libs, Layton's STUMP SPEECH attacks Libs as MUCH as Cons. CTV and Canadian Press have both commented on the NDP obsession with attacking Libs. And then you have this character saying "partisanship is over". Ya okay, tell the NDP then, because it's a one way affair. As a matter of fact, it might be time for the Libs to unload on the NDP, the free ride is over.

"Launch ads showing how many of the dipper candidates there are sovereigntists."

Oh, ho-hum. That dynamic is always going to be a constant in Quebec during a federal election and it's an element that will always see the federal parties (all of them) court in way or another. I view Harper as a larger and more imminent threat then any political dance with soft-shelled separatists

If the Grits wish to cause problems for the NDP in Quebec, the answer is simple. Launch ads showing how many of the dipper candidates there are sovereigntists. Also translate what Layton said about bill 101 a few days back.

I think that would hurt them outside of Quebec. Potentially, even inside Quebec too, because the NDP would have to decide whether to keep their separatist candidates. If they keep them, the rest of Canada would be a bit concerned and support would probably drop. If they drop them, they lose the Quebec nationalist vote that they're stealing from the Bloc.

It's most likely Layton's last kick at the can, and the only way he can stay on as leader to fight another election after this is for the NDP to grow their vote - the only way to do this is attack the Libs. No surprise why he's attacking Iggy as much as Harper does.

My surprise is why the Liberals don't respond to any of it. Especially Iggy's attendance record, that an easy on to spin around and shoot back at Layton - Ignatieff was busy talking with real Canadians instead of staying within the Ottawa bubble ...like Jack did.

Omar, as sharonapple88 wrote, attacking the NDP's seperatist candidates in Quebec isn't meant to sink them dans la belle. It's to cause them grief in Ontario and the West ...where they actually win seats.

I'm commenting on what I see in the regions, how is that partisan? The NDP don't have a ground game in Quebec, the G and M did a story on it this weekend. Why is there a partisan accusation in just giving a take of the polls? I guess ProgBlogs is a tizzy or something, I frankly don't pay attention, but all I've seen is a one sided NDP attack, and the media seem to agree.

Myself, I think this election will bring the whole idea of polling into question. I mean, how is it that one poll has the NDP and Liberals tied and another has the Liberals 12 points in front? It is bizarre.

"If the Grits wish to cause problems for the NDP in Quebec, the answer is simple. Launch ads showing how many of the dipper candidates there are sovereigntists."

I REALLY hope the Liberals do that. First of all, in no time at all I can assure you that the NDP can produce a list of Liberal and Conservative candidates in Quebec who were one-time supporters of the PQ or the BQ or who supported the Yes side in the last referendum. Second of all, this stuff backfires totally in Quebec and would only validate the NDP as a place for wavering BQ voters. In 1984 when John Turner was getting desperate, he started baiting the tories under Mulroney for having candidates who were once sovereignists - it was a total flop. Mulroney hailed the fact that one time separatists were giving Canada another chance and the Tories ended up winning 55 seats in Quebec.

I view Harper as a larger and more imminent threat then any political dance with soft-shelled separatists.

Do all the parties have openly separatist candidates? All parties probably play up to the nationalist vote in Quebec, but the NDP is straddling the issue, trying to be both and neither.

You've got to wonder how much of this is the result of the NDP knowing that they won't be in government and actually have to deal with some of the promises they've made so far -- for example allowing B.C. to keep the $1.6 billion they got for implementing the HST. Have they taken a position in this election that might make them unpopular, but might be the right thing to do?

I REALLY hope the Liberals do that. First of all, in no time at all I can assure you that the NDP can produce a list of Liberal and Conservative candidates in Quebec who were one-time supporters of the PQ or the BQ or who supported the Yes side in the last referendum.

Yes, I suppose you could add Stéphane Dion on that list since he was a former separatist supporter before he supported the federalist cause.

The real question is how many are current supporters of separatism, like the NDP candidate, Alexandre Boulerice, who is running in Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie.

"Do you remember that Jack Layton, as a young student in Montreal, militated in favour of McGill University becoming French? Have you considered that Mulcair worked for the Council of the French language in the first term of Levesque? No, you push this under the carpet. Do you counter the Bloc arguments by pointing out that the NDP caucus supported - last spring - a motion that Bill 101 applies to federally regulated companies in Quebec ."

DL said:Mulroney hailed the fact that one time separatists were giving Canada another chance and the Tories ended up winning 55 seats in Quebec.

Yes DL, I remember our triumphant win in 1984 as I was a young campus Tory at the time. And yes we won massively in Quebec by enlisting the help of Péquistes who were disenchanted after their loss in the first referendum. We slaughtered the Liberals in their base province. Problem is that employing soft-nationalists in a federalist party never works out in the end...

Yes, yes, we know the Liberals tried to accuse Nycole Turmel running for the NDP in Hull of being a "separatist" because she once endorsed a BQ candidate in a past election...trouble is it was revealed that the Liberals approached Turmel to run for them first and she turned them down!! I guess the Liberals are only too happy to embrace suspected "separatists" with open arms as long as they are prepared to run as Liberals. BTW: Turmel is the former President of PSAC, the union representing federal civil servants across canada - so the idea that she of all people would want Quebec to separate is ABSURD.

DL, playing footsie with them like this will only burn your party in the end.

"A Québec solidaire militant, Alexandre Boulerice, also a spokesperson for CUPE, is the NDP candidate in the constituency Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie. In an email exchange, Mr. Boulerice underlined that he was still a member of the Québec solidaire and a separatist. "Anyone who supports the NDP program can be a member. We can place in the forefront, social and environmental issues before the national question."

The Liberals Quebec leader under Paul Martin - Jean Lapierre was was CO-FOUNDER of the Bloc Quebecois and openly campaigned for the Oui side in the 1995 referendum - but the Liberals were only too happy to snap him up!

DL, I'm telling you about the PC experience playing with the soft-nationalists, and how it ultimately led to my old party disintegrating. Likewise ask any Liberal what they think of Jean Lapierre these days. You're just proving my point that the NDP shouldn't be doing this.

The Liberals Quebec leader under Paul Martin - Jean Lapierre was was CO-FOUNDER of the Bloc Quebecois and openly campaigned for the Oui side in the 1995 referendum - but the Liberals were only too happy to snap him up!

Lapierre... yeah, sure, but when he went back to the Liberal party, he went on record saying he was never for separatism. Would Boulerice do the same?

sharonapple88, since you're taking an interest in Quebec politics thought you'd find this bit of history interesting. Once the NDP du Quebec was severed off by the federal party (for openly supporting the Bloc and fielding FLQ members as provincial candidates) what was left by the late 1990's eventually merged into what is now the Québec Solidaire.

There are more QS members other than M. Boulerice who are supporting the federal NDP in this campaign, though officially the QS supports the Bloc.

Don't expect any better from Dippers people, they talk out of both sides of their mouth when it comes to their so called call for a united front against Harper. The actual evidence of this election campaign underscores this from the Dipper leadership, and the supporters instead of being angry with their own leadership for it are instead defending it and getting angry at Liberals and we swing non-aligned voters who see defeating Harper as the primary need of this election when we call them out for it. I said this at The Galloping Beaver yesterday, Thwap's place a couple of weeks ago (where he was so offended he made a post as his reply) and I say it again here now, the NDP clearly are NOT more interested in stopping Harper, they are with Layton more interested in defeating their long time electoral rivals the Libs REGARDLESS of the consequences where a potential Harper majority government is concerned, exactly as they have been in the 2006 and 2008 elections.

Like I said yesterday, I have become so anti-NDP because I have watched them sell out their principles, their convictions and yet claim to not have done so with their holier than thou act about being a different kind of party. The actual evidence/record proves that to be complete male bovine excrement of enormous proportions. And yes, I am bitter about it, since for me the whole point was to stop Harper from gaining power and failing that to remove him from office as soon as possible. I've always said that any other time if this were the old PCPC we were talking about I'd be fine with the NDP trying to supplant the Libs and seeing how the electorate goes with that. This however is not that time, the nonsense about Lib Tory same old story is fiction, and the Dippers from the leader on down are more concerned with their self serving agenda and their self serving grudges against the Lib party always beating them and beating on them than they are in stopping the greatest threat to not just a progressive Canada but Canadian unity in the long term itself that has risen in this nation's history!!!

Sorry Steve V, I know I am ranting a bit on this topic, but I am *EXTREMELY* frustrated at the blinders Dippers wear on this issue and the rank hypocrisy which permeates the campaign the NDP is running. I hold the NDP significantly responsible for the rise of Harper to the PMO and to keeping him there regardless of what they want to claim is really going on. I'll believe my eyes and the record rather than any spin from any party partisans, especially those of the NDP. Partisans always have some degree of blinders on where their own party is concerned, but the ones the Dippers tend to wear are far worse than the rest with the possible exception of the ones some moderate conservatives who still support the Harper CPC wear.

Omar said...Good lord. The specter of the FLQ even makes an appearance. Drama City.

Omar, the FLQ thing was the NDP's past, and the ultimate reason why the NDPQ (the formal links were severed before this) was forced to change its name by the federal party. And Paul Rose is no doubt a firm supporter of the BQ federally.

However there are still links between Quebec Solidaire (the remains of the old NDPQ) and the federal NDP.

Heck, then there are always the ex-federal NDP candidates that are now running for the Bloc in this election; Christelle Bogosta and Jean-Claude Rocheleau. It's so easy to move between the two in Quebec.

The NDP's incoherent message in Quebec is nothing different than their incoherent message on the LGR. In some QC ridings they support Quebec separatism if it gains a few votes - and in western rural ridings they support scrapping the LGR. They just hope no one notices in either case.

I think attacking the NDP just annoys liberal democratic voters. Iggy wants to lead a minority, he wants to lead national discussions, he needs to stop dissing the NDP. It's the dissing that is raising their numbers. There is one enemy of liberal democracy running in this election: Harper, defeat him, fight him. Everything else is folly.

"Don't expect any better from Dippers people, they talk out of both sides of their mouth when it comes to their so called call for a united front against Harper. The actual evidence of this election campaign underscores this from the Dipper leadership"

I remember at the beginning of the campaign, whiny dippers complained that Iggy was in NDP ridings, while JACK WAS IN CON ONLY RIDINGS. So funny now, I can't even listen to his Lib bashing stump speech anymore. The NDP are Harper's greatest allies, have been for years. We can go back and forth all day long with apologists, but the facts speak loud and clear, so do the ads.

Yep. I live in the reality based community, and it is from that perspective that my views have been formed. I go by the actual facts and sequencing of events instead of cherry-picking what suits for a partisan purpose, since I have no partisan agenda save the defeat of Harper by whatever appears to be the most realistic manner to do so given the realities of the environment we have to deal with. I am NOT a Lib member or supporter, I don't write comments about how I love their leader or the policies, but I do argue that the Libs are the best chance to replace Harper because of the reality of the history of how the electorate votes! This is something so many people just can't seem to grasp about where I come from.

Remember back in 2006 I said I would prefer to have a tired corrupt thieving Lib government in power that leeches tax dollars than one that refuses to accept that the laws that govern our system apply to them and therefore would abuse their power in ways unseen in our nation's history? How it was traditional corruption in our system to have those that stole tax dollars but that the kind of abuse of power corruption the Harper CPC would bring us would be unprecedented and far more damaging than anything we had ever seen before? How a Harper minority would be far more corrosive than leaving the Martin Libs in place?

Well, I wonder how many people that thought I was a loon or a paid Lib operative back then now think I was right, because this Harper government has been far more corrosive to Canadian democratic values than any prior government in our history, and not by a small margin either, and that is with a minority, what we would have seen without the limiting ability of that minority that a majority government would have brought should terrify anyone that claims they care about such values!!!

You've also got to love the false equivalencies from Dippers like how both sides suck for campaigning in the ridings held by the other, while ignoring how only one leader is actively campaigning against the other side including with national ad buys as well as massive attacks in debates. There is a reason I distrust partisans in general, and Dipper partisans tend to be almost as bad as CPC ones when it comes to not seeing reality when it does not favour them IMHO.

As you said the facts are clear, reality is what it is and not what one might want it to be, and the reality is that Layton has been more focused on beating up the Libs since becoming leader and ever since then he was ever in stopping the rise of Harper to power nor in bringing him down as quickly as possible once he got there. Worse, the NDP membership sanctioned it by not calling him out for the clear betrayal of their much vaunted principles this was given the clear threat Harper poses to them and always has. At this point my contempt has moved from just being at the party leadership to the wider party itself for not condemning this and for still going Lib Tory same old story because it suits their goals/prejudices/grudges better even though the reality is blatantly different these days

"Layton has been more focused on beating up the Libs since becoming leader and ever since then he was ever in stopping the rise of Harper to power nor in bringing him down as quickly as possible once he got there."

The NDP went out of its way to try to form a coalition with the Liberals in order to rid Canada of Stephen Harper - the liberals walked away and condemned us to two more years of Tory rule. Nothing more need be said.

If the Tories fall short of a majority this time - watch for the Liberals to go back to propping up Harper in exchange for NOTHING.

If the Tories fall short of a majority this time - watch for the Liberals to go back to propping up Harper in exchange for NOTHING.

Yeah, September 2009, the NDP supported the Conservatives, but they got changes to EI. Funny thing was that earlier that year, Layton said the budget wasn't worth supporting even with amendments. He made it a confidence vote, which he said he was going to vote no-confidence in the government.

*** In the end, I'm an admitted partisan, but I'd vote NDP or Green if it meant unseating a Conservative.And with the Conservatives up in the polls, we need to be aiming all guns at them.

I don't know why anyone is surprised that the Bloc has some NDP elements, it also has Lib elements and Duplessis rural fascist elements, it's a Quebec nationalist tent, and is full of ideological contradictions held together by an undercurrent of racialism

Quebec has always been one of the toughest provinces to predict seats. In 2006, I almost nailed English Canada bang on, but was way off in Quebec. It seems both the Liberals and Tories are usually underestimated in the polls while NDP and Bloc are overestimated. I suspect that has a lot to do with age demographics as the former two are stronger amongst older voters while the latter two amongst younger voters. Even though the NDP probably is in second place in Quebec, I doubt it will result in many seats as their support is spread out whereas the Liberal support is very concentrated thus translating into seats. The Conservative support is also fairly concentrated in around Quebec City and the surrounding areas so I suspect in terms of seats in Quebec, it will be Bloc followed by the Liberals, then the Tories, and NDP in fourth even if the NDP come in second in terms of votes. Many are hoping to have a repeat of what happened to the Tories in 2006 as few expected them to pick up 10 seats in Quebec, however their support was at least fairly concentrated which does not appear to be the case amongst the NDP. Nationally, the NDP on average is more or less around where they were last time around. The Liberals are doing better in Ontario, but that appears to be coming mostly at the expense of the Greens who have been largely invisible this campaign. NDP and Tory support in Ontario is pretty close to what it was last time around. The interesting time to watch will be over the Easter long weekend as it seems larger shifts typically tend to occur after long weekends than regular weekends. I suspect when many families get together there will be some discussions at the dinner table about the election thus causing some movement. I plan to update my predictions on my blog over the next week. I also hope we can get a province by province breakdown in Atlantic Canada as it is difficult to know whether the Tories have risen throughout Atlantic Canada or simply rebounded to their traditional baseline support in Newfoundland & Labrador. The lack of provincial breakdowns is why I like most thought the Tories would lose rather than gain seats in 2008 in Atlantic Canada as they plumetted far further than I thought in Newfoundland & Labrador, but gained slightly in New Brunswick which I was unaware of and thus picked up seats there.

"Yeah, September 2009, the NDP supported the Conservatives, but they got changes to EI"

The Conservatives floated those reforms in their platform. This specific change was discussed in the summer with the Libersla working group, the NDP wouldn't take part in. Go read Finley talk about this idea prior, and remember the NDP THEN bear hugged the Con reform to justify propping them up. The NDP extracted nothing, what they did, shrewd I suppose, is adopt a Con reform and then demand they implement their idea they were going to anyways. And the Cons agreed, who would thunk it. NDP partisan pride can't admit objective fact, they extracted jack shit.

I came across this comment by Mackenna on another blog earlier today and it sort of fits your position of the NDP being opportunist. " ABC is the way to go. Strategic voting. Vote for the opposition candidate that has the best chance of winning.Once this election is over, if Harper scores another minority, the opposition parties will need to cooperate. Jack Layton has to wake up and smell the coffee. Now is not the time to pretend Ignatieff and he are so different. All Jack does is attack Ignatieff, when he should be attacking Harper. Jack is no saint when it comes to his record of making deals with Harper so he needs to get with the program and stop being a complete opportunist." Anyways I’ve been holding in my anger at NDP for quite some time now, well since his back stabbing act of 2004 on Prime Minister Martin. This anger I have has almost gotten to the point that I can tolerate Harpers speeches over Laytons speeches. However, I was able to suppress my anger long enough to take the time and meet the two NDP candidates in my riding and the riding next to me. My conclusion from those meetings was that although they were both very nice and we shared common interest, my vote was better served on the Liberal candidate, as they ran a somewhat distant second in the last election and the NDP was a very significant distance in third. My point is that I did take the time to investigate whether I should change my vote to NDP or not, all in the interest of “Strategic Voting”. ABC, I wish Layton would get that through his thick scull.

I am interested in seeing how hardened this support for the NDP is. We have seen such flirtations in the past of course. Sometimes it is meaningless in the end (see 1988 and the predictions of a Liberal win halfway through) and sometimes the support hardens (see ON, 1990). A lot of truly unqualified people get elected in such cases.

The NDP have very little ground game in QC, so that could be a factor as well.