Sens. Dianne Feinstein, D-San Francisco, and Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, said Tuesday that they will propose legislation next month to force companies that receive money from the fund to report how they have spent it.
Thirty years after the deaths of San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk, Senator Dianne Feinstein addresses members of the press in her downtown offcie on Tuesday Nov 25, 2008 in San Francisco, Calif.

Photo: Mike Kepka, The Chronicle

Sens. Dianne Feinstein, D-San Francisco, and Olympia Snowe,...

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Tom Campbell

Photo: Kat Wade, SFC

Tom Campbell

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Attorney General Jerry Brown.

Photo: Deanne Fitzmaurice, The Chronicle

Attorney General Jerry Brown.

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Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner said his order will save homeowners $255?million in premiums.

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, AP

Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner said his order will save...

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Meg Whitman, the former president and CEO of eBay, arrives to address the third session of the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, September 3, 2008. REUTERS/Brian Snyder (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008 (USA)

When a billionaire businesswoman quits corporate boards and the attorney general does a political flip to get in front of a hot Democratic issue, it can only mean an election is coming.

With almost 18 months to go before the June 8, 2010, primary, a host of likely candidates already are positioning themselves to become California's next governor, replacing termed-out Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

That's not nearly as long as it seems, particularly for the power players, donors and political junkies those early moves are aimed at.

The conventional wisdom has a shorthand description of the 2010 race: For the Democrats, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein clears the field if she runs, with Attorney General Jerry Brown the big favorite if the former San Francisco mayor stays in the Senate. On the GOP side, it's a battle between megarich Silicon Valley types Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner, with former Rep. Tom Campbell of San Jose hoping to sneak by both of them.

But there's a reason governors are chosen in elections and not by polls taken 18 months out. The political world can alter dramatically in a year and a half, and there are plenty of governor wannabes hoping any changes can put them in the governor's office.

"People who belong in Gamblers Anonymous are attracted to politics," said Darry Sragow, a Southern California attorney who ran Democrat Al Checchi's unsuccessful run for governor in 1998. "You're at the mercy of a political environment that's always precarious and can't be predicted."

All any candidate can do is put together a campaign and hope for the best.

This month, for example, Whitman resigned from the corporate boards of Procter & Gamble, DreamWorks SKG and eBay, the online auction company she ran for years. While a spokesman said she left the boards "for personal reasons," there was no attempt to discourage speculation that Whitman was clearing the decks for a long-rumored run for governor.

"She's in," said one GOP consultant, who asked to remain nameless. "She'll probably make an official announcement in the next few weeks."

Jerry Brown woos Dems

Brown, another all-but-declared candidate for governor, has made his own efforts to nestle closer to Democratic activists.

The day after the Nov. 4 election, Brown said that while he personally opposed Proposition 8, the voter-approved ban on same-sex marriage, as the state's top lawyer he would "defend the proposition as enacted by the people of California."

But last month, Brown urged the state Supreme Court to overturn the initiative, arguing that the ballot measure was "inconsistent with the guarantees of individual liberty" in the state Constitution.

The switch came, Brown said, after he and other state attorneys took a closer look at Prop. 8. His decision also came after six weeks of raucous protests by tens of thousands of California voters, many of them the same progressive activists any Democrat needs to attract to win a primary for governor.

Coming out as a leader in the effort to overturn a measure approved by 52 percent of California voters might not be a recipe for success in a general election, but it's first things first for candidates.

"Any candidate who starts running a general election campaign now won't get out of the primary," Schnur said.

Brown may be one of California's best-known Democrats, with two terms as governor under his belt, but plenty of the voters in next year's elections weren't even born when Brown, now 70, replaced Republican Gov. Ronald Reagan in 1974.

For candidates jumping into the governor's race, "what you have to do depends on who you are," Sragow said.

The advantage of wealth

Wealthy would-be candidates like Whitman, state Insurance Commissioner Poizner and former Democratic Controller Steve Westly can pump millions of their own money into a campaign, which saves fundraising time.

It's different for everyone else.

Political veterans like Democrats Brown, Feinstein, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi and state Treasurer Bill Lockyer already are relatively well known around California and know what it takes to run a statewide campaign. If they're running, they can talk to their friends, call past supporters, bring in their consultants and be ready to go.

It's tougher for the relative newcomers. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa both run major cities, but have been virtually invisible beyond their opposite ends on the state. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell has won two statewide races, but is little known outside the educational community and Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo, where he was a state legislator.

Among Republicans, former San Jose Rep. Tom Campbell is something less than a household name, despite two tries for the U.S. Senate.

"With a large number of contestants, the candidates have to differentiate themselves early," said Larry Gerston, a political science professor at San Jose State University. "That's why the campaign is starting now."

Some bide their time

Not everyone can or will play the early decision game. Villaraigosa, for example, can't even mention the governor's race until he wins re-election in March. Feinstein has such a strong political position that she doesn't plan to talk about the governor's race until next January. While Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Garden Grove (Orange County), was one of the first to open a campaign committee for governor, she hasn't made a move toward running.

"This is one of those deals where you have to have a game plan, but it's affected by what everyone else does," Sragow said. "There's still a tremendous amount of water that has to pass under a lot of bridges before the election."

Handicap: The early odds on potential candidates for governor. A10

Hopefuls line up for 2010 governor's race

Republicans and Democrats already are lining up for the horse race to party primaries for California governor on June 8, 2010. Here are the early odds:

Democrats

Jerry Brown, 2-1

Plenty of past class, has shown he can win at this level. Age a question and will be carrying lots of political baggage.

Gavin Newsom, 4-1

Young, with plenty of flash, but stepping way up in class. Unique style doesn't always help his efforts.

Antonio Villaraigosa, 4-1

Faces easy preliminary heat in mayor's race, but still a strong contender. Past problems could hurt his chances.

John Garamendi, 5-1

Steady veteran campaigner but has missed twice at this level. Big field would give him a better shot.

Steve Westly, 7-1

Just missed at this level in 2006, but hasn't been seen on the course lately. No problem raising the entry fee.

Jack O'Connell, 10-1

Longshot special. Been running strong races at lower levels and lacks the past troubles of others in the contest.

Bill Lockyer, 15-1

Oft-rumored entrant has the background for the big race but seems content to stick with easy contests at lower levels.

Loretta Sanchez, 20-1

Put up the entry fee, but hasn't done much more than that. Would be the lone woman in the race.

Also eligible

Dianne Feinstein, 3-5

Guaranteed favorite if she makes the race, and her record would scare others out. May be looking elsewhere, though.

Republicans

Steve Poizner, 3-1

Been doing everything right in race preps and has growing list of backers. Little experience at this level, though.

Meg Whitman, 5-1

Never had a race at any level, but growing indications are she's getting in. It's a tough spot for even a well-backed rookie.

Tom Campbell, 6-1

Respected veteran with tons of experience but has never won the big one. May need help to stay in contest.

Also eligible

A strong Southern California entrant could make things tough for the Silicon Valley trio now on top.