Granted, things could not possibly have ended any worse for the Lakers than they did on Sunday, and for center Dwight Howard specifically. They were swept out of the first round of the playoffs by the Spurs, losing a Game 4 in which they never had a lead and trailed by as many as 25.

Worse, Howard finished up the “nightmare” (his word) with just seven points and five turnovers, picking up two technical fouls that had him ejected two minutes into the second half. Cameras picked up Howard having a brief word with general manager Mitch Kupchak on the way out, before he quickly returned to berating the officials who ejected him.

Howard’s Lakers experience pretty much has been a nightmare from start to finish. For a guy who doesn’t stay out late or brush with the law, Howard found endless ways to stumble into public-relations screw-ups this year. The Lakers were one of the great disappointments in the history of the league, and whether it’s fair almost doesn’t matter—Howard took the blame. “I think I handled some situations good, some situations bad,” Howard said. “It’s a growing process.”

The notion that Howard, at age 27 and with nine seasons in the NBA, is still undergoing a growing process might be reason to give the Lakers pause before committing to making Howard the long-term face of the franchise. Howard is a free agent this summer, and he could simply sign elsewhere, allowing him to escape from LA—which was not his first choice of employers to begin with—and allowing the Lakers to dodge another season of the kind of shenanigans we saw this year.

Do not hold your breath, though. The Lakers will go through some changes this summer, but the likelihood that one of them involves Howard bolting and playing elsewhere remains slim. Back in January, team president Jim Buss claimed the Lakers had a 95 percent chance of re-signing Howard this summer. If those odds have dipped, it’s not by much—the smart money remains on Howard staying put and there are three good reasons as to why:

Money. Under NBA rules, because the Lakers have Howard’s Bird rights, they can sign him to a five-year contract, worth around $120 million. If Howard were to sign elsewhere, he would get four years and about $90 million. When you break that down annually, the money is not that different, and in some cases, it makes sense for the player to accept four years in order to change locales. That’s not the case with Howard, though, not after having had back surgery and never really getting back to 100 percent this year. He has got to be worried about his health going forward, and the Lakers can give him a contract that will pay him around $27 million when he is 32 years old. No one else can make that kind of offer.

Buss himself. Things have not gone well with Jim Buss at the helm of the Lakers. He hired Mike Brown, fired him five games into the season, passed on Phil Jackson and made the mistake of getting Mike D’Antoni. There was the signing of Steve Nash, which also has not gone well, and of course, the Howard trade. All of this has earned him a spot in the doghouse of Lakers fans, but realistically, getting Howard into a Lakers uniform remains a net positive—would you rather have watched Andrew Bynum manicure his haircut and go bowling all year?

Buss has a lot personally invested in making sure the Howard situation works out for the Lakers. The coaching foibles are one thing, but they can be forgiven as long as Howard stays put, gets healthy and returns to the ranks of the league’s elite. That can happen—both Howard and the Lakers played better as the season went on, and LA figures to alter the roster, probably moving Pau Gasol and/or Metta World Peace this summer. If Howard winds up leaving, it will not be because the Lakers didn’t try to convince him to stay.

Opportunity. Outside of the Lakers, there are only three teams that figure to have a legitimate shot at getting Howard this summer: the Mavericks, the Rockets and the Hawks. All three can, with some roster maneuvering, create enough cap space to offer Howard the four-year, $90 million max and all three offer Howard the chance to play alongside an All-Star: Al Horford in Atlanta, James Harden in Houston and Dirk Nowitzki in Dallas.

But Howard has been very particular about where he’d like to play, and Atlanta and Houston have never been on his list. That’s not to say his list won’t expand, but going into the process, those two cities are at a disadvantage. That could be too bad, because the notion of Howard teaming up with the perimeter fireworks of the Rockets’ offense is a fascinating one. But most likely, Atlanta and Houston are longshots.

So it is likely that Howard will have to weigh whether he’d rather play with Dirk Nowitzki or Kobe Bryant, with Bryant’s Achilles tendon surgery a factor. Beyond that, though, he will have to ask just how bad things were in LA this year, really? They went 20-8 after the All-Star break, and as embarrassing as the Spurs series was, there is no way you can make a judgment on this team based on the playoffs, not with Bryant, Nash, Steve Blake and Jodie Meeks all missing. The Lakers’ starting backcourt in Game 4 was Andrew Goudelock and Darius Morris—it’s hardly all Howard’s fault that they lost that game.

Dallas has virtually no one signed beyond Nowitzki. That kind of flexibility can be useful, but it can also be frightening—there is no telling what the roster will look like, whereas Howard could look at LA and at least know that the team has the potential to be good, if healthy.

Put that factor together with the willingness of Buss to stay the course with the Howard-as-franchise-cornerstone plan, as well as the sheer finances of a potential deal, and it all comes out the same: There’s virtually no chance Howard leaves the Lakers.