Now that Israel has moved overtly to the quasi-fascist right, bringing an advocate of ethnic cleansing into the government, is it time for an attack on Iran? Not without America's say so, of course, but the consensus in the IDF appears to be yes, and there has been pressure from Tel Aviv to speed it up. William Polk, formerly of the US Policy Planning Council, has beenwriting about why he thinks a US-led attack is likely soon, but probably not before the November mid-term elections. Dave Lindorff has been suggesting in The Nation that US government announcements and rhetoric have tended that way, although he was anticipating an October Surprise. Bush and Rice in particular have long been threatening Iran, and it didn't go completely unnoticed when the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group moved to the Persian Gulf. Debkafile, a source that can be unreliable but can also be surprisingly accurate, recently suggested that the American Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group has arrived in the Gulf. Today Michel Chussodovsky has a well-sourced discussion of recent military manoeuvres in the Persian Gulf.

It seems obvious that an attack on Iran is on the way, probably an aerial attack, but the Republicans would require a 'Tonkin' incident, as Chussodovsky suggests, to make an attack this close to the election pass without a huge loss of votes. I wouldn't anticipate an attack before the Democrats have disappointed themselves yet again (even where they succeed, they will have done much less well than they should have done).