000
FXUS63 KTOP 011127
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVETROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFSPOPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVETROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS