1. The markets hit new highs with the S&P 500 > 1600, Dow over 15,000.
2. April Payrolls +165k. Upward revision of 114k to the February and March. Unemployment rate falls to 7.5% 3. Average hourly earnings rise .2%, in line and average duration of unemployment falls.
4. Jobless claims come in at the lowest level since 2008. Claims drop 18,000 to 324,000
5. First time in 17 years the market hasn’t had a 5% correction from January through May.
6. Average 30 year mortgage rate fell to 4 month lows of 3.60%, prompting refi applications to rise 2.8% (most since January) .
7. FOMC minutes indicate the Fed will maintain its pace of $85B monthly bond buying (or may do even more).
8. March personal spending grows 0.2% v flat expectations.
9. Treasury yields hit 2013 low (so much for the “Great Rotation.”)
10. Case/Shiller home price index rises to highest since Dec ’08. Home prices rise 9.32% year-over-year; Home prices rise 1.24% month-over-month
11. Italian 10 year bond auction delivers the lowest yield since October 2010.
12. Ford sales up 17.9% in U.S. in April (year over year). GM April sales up 11%.
13. ISM manufacturing fell less than expected to 50.7. This beat economists’ expectations of a fall to 50.5. (glass half full)
14. Pending home sales jump 1.5% v expectations of +1%;
15. Stoxx 600 rises for the 11th straight month, the longest winning streak since 1997.

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

Why is the average work week falling to 34.6 hours to 34.4 hours? Is this because the new jobs being created are part tIme jobs versus full time jobs, or are companies forcing workers into part time positions due to Obama Care, or is the economy slowing down so less work hours are needed (people buying less due to having less to spend) or what? Is a .2 hour drop per week (on average for the entire workforce) a big deal or not so much?

There’s a useful chart posted today on an alternative website that rhymes with “Hero’s Sledge” which puts the number in context of the series. The cycle peak was 34.6 hours, so we failed to gain anything further. We’ve now broken back down into the lower end of the uptrending channel which started in Spring 2009. I think this number is worth monitoring in the next couple of releases. I don’t think it’s a leading indicator, though – at least, in 2008 it would’ve arrived too late.

Ponder this event: After years of forcing folks into defined contribution plans, the Fed realizes we are in deep doodoo if those stocks don’t payoff. I don’t care about anything else, the Fed is not going to let the second half of the boomer generation fall into the abyss. The first half of this generation received defined benefit plans. China is going to be the next economic leader, no surprise. But, they hate Japan. Japan makes good cars that WILL NOT sell in China. So, Japan is going to make cars where Henry Ford started, right here in the ole USA. Japan is screwed: poor demorgraphics and no natural resources. So, we are going to save Japan and in exchange get their manufacturing jobs. To be a powerhouse, you need to make good cars. Germany and Japan make good cars.

Here’s why, and I’ve had just enough gin to explain this: housing is a natural need that dates back to cave man days. Now, housing also factors in the changing demographics: one wage earner vs. two. It’s not enough to look at raw material cost and labor. It’s all about affordability. Otherwise, Hamptons housing would equal waterfront property on the great lakes.

there should be a ratio graph of total jobs to total people on public assistance such as SSI,SSDI, welfare, food stamps. In town where I live food stamps go to more people than have jobs.
we are growing a permanent underclass, they are thriving because inflation is low and housing is cheap.
I worry about the next generation when things are tight.

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About Barry Ritholtz

Ritholtz has been observing capital markets with a critical eye for 20 years. With a background in math & sciences and a law school degree, he is not your typical Wall St. persona. He left Law for Finance, working as a trader, researcher and strategist before graduating to asset managementRead More...

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