Jon Skeet has broken the 100,000 barrier!

Though it's hard to pinpoint the exact time, this post was created very shortly afterwards, with a post date of 2009-09-24 01:39:44Z. The winner is silky, who called September 24!

This would be fun. There could be a programming element to this, since some data mining might be able to help you observe patterns to help enrich your chances of winning. Jeff would, of course, be able to provide some SO swag to the lucky winner, even if it's just a fun badge.

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Where do people come up with this stuff anyway? He puts his pants on in the morning just like all of us. One leg at at time. The only difference is that he does it while answering questions on SO.
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jjnguyJul 10 '09 at 15:53

2

Wrong, he puts his pants on both legs at the same time, while answering questions on StackOverflow.
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Brad GilbertJul 10 '09 at 16:15

I'm not (necessarily) attributing godlike qualities to Jon Skeet. (Although the Jon Skeet Facts post on SO is pretty darn funny... the "can recite pi... backwards" one makes me laugh every time.) I just think such a contest would be fun.
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Chris FarmerJul 10 '09 at 16:26

I believe in the easter egg question, you posted a picture of yourself working in a bathrobe. Perhaps the difference between Jon Skeet and the rest of us IS rooted in pants.
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devinbJul 10 '09 at 17:55

20 Answers
20

24th would be pretty hard at this stage. With a really good weekend it's possible, but tricky. 25th or 26th is more likely now.
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Jon SkeetSep 18 '09 at 6:29

Actually, it may not be too unreasonable. At the end of September 17th I had 2341 left to get. Let's assume 230 per day over the coming weekend. That leaves 1881 over today (18th) and next week. To get there on the 24th would mean averaging 376.2 per day. This week has been a good week so far - an average of 387. So if I have a similarly good week next week - or a really good weekend - I could get there. I'm going out on Saturday evening though...
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Jon SkeetSep 18 '09 at 6:57

You presence on SO is only tangentially related to the amount of rep you earn.
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please delete meSep 19 '09 at 6:30

I had a very good day on Friday (463) and a pretty reasonable weekend. It's now looking like Thursday (24th) is very likely. Wednesday is unrealistically optimistic; I'll almost certainly hit before the end of Friday.
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Jon SkeetSep 21 '09 at 8:49

Another probably unconsidered aspect is that as you verge closer, people will want to get you over the line, so you'll hit the 200 barrier earlier. I'm feeling quite good. I await my prize in advance.
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please delete meSep 21 '09 at 9:38

I'm not sure there are that many people who care :)
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Jon SkeetSep 21 '09 at 13:09

3

You'd be surprised (probably not though) at the level of obsession some people have.
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please delete meSep 21 '09 at 13:51

I called it too soon. You are totally going to hit it earlier I think. Damn. Maybe not. But almost certainly.
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please delete meSep 21 '09 at 23:23

No, I'd have to average nearly 500 per day for today and tomorrow to do it before Thursday... and I've never hit 500 yet without bounty. (463 on Friday... I had high hopes.) I was at 99014 at the start of today, which means Thursday is almost certainly the day: 500 per day is too much to achieve, but 330 per day is relatively straightforward.
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Jon SkeetSep 22 '09 at 6:21

Yeah, you're right, I lost my head for a bit; for some reason I thought the 24th meant friday; but of course it's thursday, and most definitely that will be the day.
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please delete meSep 23 '09 at 4:59

7

Congrats on guessing the right day (whether or not you meant to!) :-)
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Kyle CroninSep 24 '09 at 2:02

wooo. i now eagerly await SO to be showered in pictures of jon, in celebration.
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please delete meSep 24 '09 at 2:21

The time period in which an uncharacteristically large set of non-programming-related fun questions are posted on StackOverflow and related websites. It is assumed that this is the most popular time period due to the urge for users to want to "wind down" from a hard week of attempting to treat StackOverflow like serious business.

The time period in which most SO humor trolls wake up and begin feeding.

I don't think he'll EVER hit 100,000. Something tells me there's a bug in the system that is going to replicate the old arcade days. Jon will hit 99,999 and then forever be stuck there, or he'll go back to 1 and get the "Awesomeness" badge that repeats every time you get to 100,000 rep, that badge will be platinum.

Maybe that should be a feature request? Sorry...Friday has arrived. 8^D

Do I get to guess as well, or is there a sneaking suspicion that I may be able to influence it? ;)

I'd love to say "6-8 weeks" but I think it'll be a little longer than that... unless people feel like asking big bounty questions about time zones ;)

EDIT: I've recently been tracking what it'll take for me to get there before my one year anniversary (September 26th). At the moment I need a little shy of 300 a day, which is fairly easily achievable. Weekends are generally a pain (it's hard to get 300 on a weekend day) but if I only assume 200 for the remaining 4 weekend days before the 26th, I still only have to get 324 per day. That's doable.

Just remember to come back to this thread when you do :)
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Eric KoslowJul 10 '09 at 15:17

11

Even if you stop answering question now, you'll probably still coast to 100K by year's end.
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Bill the LizardJul 10 '09 at 15:20

I don't think you'd even be able to resist answering enough to influence. It'll be two days before your guess, you'll be at 99800 and you'll be struggling not to answer any more questions.
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Hilarious Comedy PestoJul 10 '09 at 15:21

Well if you look at his rep graph it seems to be almost a liner graph starting at 2008/09/27.

Today is 2009/07/10, and he has a rep of 77,307. It has been 286 days since he started. Some how he has been getting 270.3 points adverge a day. So by this math he should reach 100K at.... 2009/10/2 Around 7am.

EDIT: Woops, I was never good with dates. I corrected my answer to be more accurate.

for someone like Skeet it's almost impossible for it -not- to be a linear graph due to the artificial limit set by the system of 200 rep per day (not including bonuses and accepted answers and bounties).
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TheTXIJul 10 '09 at 15:16

I think you mean 9 months and 17 days - 10 months after September 27th is July 27th.
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Jon SkeetJul 10 '09 at 15:17

Wait: sept 27 was your join date? Maybe I should bump mine up a day so that I have you reaching 100K a year to the day from when you started.
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Joel CoehoornJul 10 '09 at 15:37

That's funny, when I read the question I did a quick back of the napkin calculation using his current rep and the rep limit then adjusted the estimate for things like bounties and answered questions and got 12 - 16 weeks which would be the week of 2009/10/2
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toastJul 10 '09 at 15:57

But all in all, he should definitely have it before Halloween.
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toastJul 10 '09 at 15:58

At his current velocity, it seems inevitable that Jon will hit 100k reputation before the first Dev Days event in Boston on October 7. 32 days remain, and he has less than 6400 rep to go. This means all he has to do is hit the cap each day, and we all know that's a given.

Will something happen when he reaches 100k? Something wonderful?

Is this all ordained by prophecy? Will Dev Days actually be ... a pilgrimage?

I'm still hoping for September 26th, which I believe is feasible so long as next weekend isn't too bad. It's very non-linear - at the moment I think I'm averaging ~350 per day during the week, but weekends vary between 200 and 300.
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Jon SkeetSep 15 '09 at 9:55

That would be annoying. I'd like to be on 100K before the DevDay in London (October 28th)
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Jon SkeetJul 10 '09 at 15:21

@Jon: You'll probably make that. I used a low average daily gain (low for you) then rounded up my answer a few days to a nice milestone date. :)
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Bill the LizardJul 10 '09 at 15:27

For some reason this made me think of Harry Potter -- maybe it's all the ads I'm seeing on the tube. Wait a minute... Jon, you aren't using magic to enhance your rep, are you?
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tvanfossonJul 10 '09 at 15:37

Note there's a slight, barely noticeable, upward bend to the line. So if you just take his daily average since his join date you're estimate will be too low. Going with the average from just the last 60 days is a better estimate.
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Joel CoehoornSep 22 '09 at 15:08