This Predictor Is Stuck In A Painful Spot

NFL - PRO PICKS

January 3, 2004|By Jerry Greene, Sentinel Columnist

Here I sit, brokenhearted, on the horns of a dilemma.

And it hurts.

Way back in August of 2003, I predicted that Kansas City would meet St. Louis in the Super Bowl. The good news is that they are both very much alive. The bad news is that they both are seeded No. 2 instead of No. 1 in their conferences.

So that's the thorny part -- how to get past New England and Philadelphia.

But I have a plan.

I always have a plan.

But, first, it's time to wrap up the regular season:

LAST WEEK & LAST SEASON: Sob, I was doing so well until the end. Right now I feel like the Florida Gators (although I doubt if Steve Spurrier wants this job). Finished with my only losing week of the season, going 7-9 straight up and 6-10 against the spread. Still, it was one of my best years at 168-88 straight up (66 percent) and 133-111-12 against the jelly (54 percent). Let's see Ron Zook top that.

Two notes about today's ABC telecasts: (1) Buccaneers Coach Jon Gruden joins Chris Berman and Steve Young at "Times Square Stadium." Yeah, I bet that's where he wants to be. (2) There's still going to be Hank Williams Jr. doing "Are You Ready for Some Football," joined by -- KISS. What, Joe Namath wasn't available?

And now let me tell you how this weekend's four games will play out -- so you can marvel at the beauty of my plan:

Tennessee (12-4) at Baltimore (10-6) -- Titans favored by 1. Come on, it's the playoffs so think about it. The Titans got 70.5 percent of their offensive yardage from passing, and they're going to Baltimore to face the Ravens' defense. And Ravens RB Jamal Lewis outrushed 24 teams by himself. In an Edgar-Allan-Poe Upset Special, Quoth the Ravens, win by 4.

Dallas (10-6) at Carolina (11-5) -- Panthers favored by 3. Yes, I know how terrifying it is to pick against the Big Tuna, but we must be strong. After all, Bill Parcells is not perfect in the postseason (11-6 with Giants, Patsies and Jets) -- and he's never had to use QB Quincy Carter and RB Troy Hambrick in the past. Besides, Panthers QB Jake Delhomme thinks he's the second coming of Brett Favre. Panthers by 5.

Seattle (10-6) at Green Bay (10-6) -- Cheeseheads favored by 71/2 on Sunday. Speaking of Brett, there's no doubt that the Cheeseheads are "America's team" right now. The question is if they are really "Heaven's team," too. But if you need a more concrete reason why the 'Heads will win, his name is Ahman Green. Cheeseheads by 11.

Denver (10-6) at Indianapolis (12-4) -- Colts favored by 3 on Sunday. Nobody can deny that Colts Coach Tony Dungy and QB Peyton Manning are nice guys -- and that may be why they finish last when the playoffs start. Another reason for their failure will be the return of Broncos RB Clinton Portis. In a Run-Clinton-Run Upset Special, Broncos by 10.

OK, Ravens, Panthers, Cheeseheads and Broncos -- sounds like one very strange zoo. Now we need to look into the future (cue the Twilight Zone music):

HYPOTHETICALLY SPEAKING . . .

NFC: In order to get the Rams into the Super Bowl, our challenge is to get rid of Philadelphia -- which is a pretty good idea by itself. And the guys who will get that done are the Cheeseheads, who are dumb enough to ignore the weather and blessed enough to ignore Donovan McNabb. Meanwhile, the Rams will be in their comfy center ring at home, throwing cream pies at Delhomme.

See how this works? Green Bay has to go to St. Louis for the championship -- and the Rams' turf is where even angels fear to tread.

Your NFC champion -- St. Louis.

AFC: This one is tougher. Kansas City has to find a way to stop Jamal Lewis, and I'm suggesting hiring Lawrence Taylor to research that.

Meanwhile, how does Denver beat New England? We know Patriots QB Tom Brady has not thrown a pick in 241 pass attempts at home this season -- and we know the Patriots' defense has given up just 22 points in its past six home games.

Talk about a bunch of guys who are due to have a bad game.

Besides, the Patriots have won their past 12, so they would have to win 15 straight (one shy of a perfect season) to win the Super Bowl. That's not likely, is it?

That's why Denver finds a way to knock off the Patsies, setting up a familiar showdown in Kansas City for the AFC title. And the Chiefs will prevail as Dick Vermeil starts to tear up.

And here's my clincher: The past two Super Bowl champions (Tampa Bay after New England) were No. 2 seeds. What are St. Louis and Kansas City? No. 2 seeds.