TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC NEARING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. HOWEVER...A 0714 UTC QSCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE SFC CIRCULATION IS SITUATED FARTHER E. WHILE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY...WITHIN 60 NM E AND 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N...THIS SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED FROM NW TO SE ALONG 20N37W 6N33W. DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION NOTED IN THE TPW FIELD AND CLOUD DRIFT WINDS...ORGANIZED DEEP CLOUDINESS IS MINIMAL WITH ONLY ONE PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WEAK AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ONES TO ITS E. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N/13N AND SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO ITS W SIDE SHEARED BY UPPER ELY FLOW FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 56W-59W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT ABOUT THE AXIS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KT E OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND CHALLENGING TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE EVIDENT IN THE TPW FIELD. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 91W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE EPAC.

...ITCZ...ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 9N30W 6N40W 5N50W 6N55W 10N62W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS SSW FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED IN THIS AREA IS BEING DEEPENED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-29N W OF 84W...AS NOTED IN LIGHTNING DATA. THE HIGHEST FREQUENCY OF STRIKES ARE OCCURRING OVER THE E GULF. ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ENHANCED BY THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. OTHERWISE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK AS A FRONT HAS DRIFTED N TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH SFC RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD W FROM THE ATLC. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE S WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N69W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S TO NEAR 12N72W. WHILE DRY AIR IS EVIDENT NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST BOTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN DIFFLUENT ZONES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW AND SW WATERS BUT THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED W OF THE AREA WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW WATERS DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN...DUE TO LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS FAIRLY STABLE WITH A FEW BENIGN UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE OVER THE E ATLC. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N43W WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...ESPECIALLY THE VIGOROUS ONE IN THE FAR E ATLC.

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