Labour third in Epsom

Six weeks out from the election and the National Party is leading the way in the Epsom electorate, a poll has revealed today.

A Colmar Brunton poll carried out by TVNZ’s Q + A programme sees National sitting with a comfortable lead in the Epsom electorate, with 60% of those polled in the electorate saying they would vote for National in the election.

The Green Party, in second place, trailed far behind with only 16% of Epsom voters saying they would give their party vote to the Greens.

Labour were 3rd on 14%.

This makes you wonder how many other seats or areas now have Labour in 3rd place for the party vote? The Greens will be very happy, and Labour should be quite worried.

When polled on who they would vote for with their electorate vote, 44% of Epsom voters said they would vote for National MP Paul Goldsmith while 32% said they would vote for Act Party candidate David Seymour.

When asked if they were aware that Prime Minister John Key is encouraging National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to the Act Party candidate, 70% said they were.

When asked if this would change who they would give their electorate vote to, 45% said they would vote for Act’s David Seymour, while 31% said they would still vote for National’s Paul Goldsmith.

That looks pretty comfortable for David Seymour. ACT have never actually led in a public pre-election poll in Epsom despite winning in 2005, 2008 and 2011. So for them to be ahead six weeks out is a pretty strong signal that they will win the seat.

This means that a vote for ACT will not be a wasted vote. Last time they got 1.1%. If they get 0.1% more and get 1.2% then they get a second MP.

duggledog

16% of Epsom voters saying (only ‘saying’ remember) that they will vote for the Greens is staggering and almost beyond belief. Epsom is an electorate where you would have a fairly good grasp on what things cost, and how it works in the real world.

You could imagine a few old crazy cat ladies living there and a few kids still living at home with their parents, wanting to rebel after a cosseted upbringing, but 16% of Epsom being deranged?

duggledog

holysheet

National need to withdraw Goldsmith from the ballot paper to ensure that Seymour gets in for ACT. This will thwart any attempt by silly liabore and greens voters giving their candidate vote to Goldsmith.

If we take NZ 1st out as it is a centrist party that can go either way, this poll indicates a +3.75% increase in the Centre Left voting block. Now single electorate polls usually have smaller samples and so larger margins of error plus I’ve not looked at the boundary changes to see if there are mesh blocks added from areas with a stronger CL vote but if this shift from CR to CL was reflected nationwide then NZ 1st would hold the balance of power.

JC

Labour’s today announcement of free medical care for the over 65 confirms a struggle between the left side rather than a front on attack on National.

This looks more like a fight to be the biggest party in Opposition than a contest to unseat National. Of course this could result in a squeak in for the hydra but I get no sense of a mature national purpose. The national purpose that could evolve after negotiations is that of the lowest polling party.

Shazzadude

This is a good poll result for ACT. But, what I don’t like about the methodology is that the poll leads the horse to water, so to speak. If they were asked this question before being asked if they were aware that Prime Minister John Key is encouraging National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to the Act Party candidate, the poll result could well have been different.

It is significant beyond description that Seymour has 32% in a straight race. That is incredible support, and shows what can be done with good old hard work, and a concentrated campaign. The seat is essentially his.

But of course there is the chance the Cons could so what they have said, and perform the greatest comeback in NZ political history.

Actually, no there isn’t. There is no chance of that. Not even the smallest chance.

MT_Tinman

@shazzadude – if you check out the report, which is on their website, you will see respondents were asked about electorate candidate support before any mention of the national-act arrangement, as well as after.

slijmbal

As Michelle Boag pointed out the difference between the party and electorate vote for Labour voters in Epsom was about 5,000. The most likely reason is that they voted for the National electoral candidate to spike ACT.

that’s about a 15% extra votes the National electorate can expect that I would not expect to see in a poll.

Anthony

Last election I think Wellington Central voters were the biggest Green supporters in the country! Chardonnay Socialists love to think they are saving the planet by voting Green – after they drive to the polling station in their large upmarket SUV!

The Green Party, in second place, trailed far behind with only 16% of Epsom voters saying they would give their party vote to the Greens.

So, trailing far behind on, er, a better figure than their national average, then? Do journos read what they write before hitting Submit?

Labour third in Epsom

The party of the workers is doing very badly in one of the richest electorates in the country? No fucken shit, Sherlock – how’s the party of the farmers and employers doing in the country’s poorest electorates?

itstricky

When polled on who they would vote for with their electorate vote, 44% of Epsom voters said they would vote for National MP Paul Goldsmith while 32% said they would vote for Act Party candidate David Seymour.

When asked if this would change who they would give their electorate vote to, 45% said they would vote for Act’s David Seymour, while 31% said they would still vote for National’s Paul Goldsmith.

questions

@itstricky: I think the defining characteristic of a sugar daddy is that they pay for things. As with selling out and prostituting. Are you suggesting someone is getting paid?

There are plenty of people getting all shirty about Epsom, even though Act won it fair and square some time ago and have held it since. It’s not like National just decided to gift i, although once Act held it they have generally agreed to let them keep it.

Steve Wrathall

Interestingly the 12% lead that the initial “unprompted” poll gives Goldsmith, is almost identical to the 10-15% lead over Banksie that he showed in three polls in the week before the 2011 election. But Banksie won.

Sir Cullen's Sidekick

Already Messiah Cunliffe is buying the election by saying everything is free for everybody….I don’t think Key will survive these bribes offered by Messiah. Idiot Parker with his stupid looking grin was clutching some papers saying all costed and we are in surplus…so pathetic…

I think Key made a good choice about the Conservatives, much as I would have like to see the MMP back up seat in East Coast. Why would you ask Murray to stand aside after all he has done. The people there know who he is .
But MMP I can remember the sly Rod Donald operating in Christchurch, he joined the Green party when I was an office holder. he could work the room and dodge the TV cameras at the socialist gatherings, full of self pomp and arrogance . He knew everything and nothing , and then of course …
I signed him up and we were enemies from the start. Now I remember how a few votes can change a country. It is utterly disgusting to think that a racist Mana fascist party could dominate our country. I want to vote for Craig, but I know he has cross eyes but I think we could have earned seats if Craig had been sensible in the choice of seats there.
But Key is determined to take that 50% and I think now I send my electronic vote for safety, I really believe the NZ Nat will win in 2017 as well

It was also bloody stupid for Conservative to introduce Christine Rankin to Epsom, possibly a terminal idea,
but about bribing voters , I live in Thailand and the redshirts bribed the poor upcountry farmers to pay them twice the value of rice value It cost the Country about US$ 20billion dollars and resulted in a Military coup.
When you get a completely stupid and corrupt group of politicians to bribe Country the end result is the opposite. Goodbye Cunnliffe

daniel carter

The hypocrisy with which the far right can applaud ACT in Epsom while moaning about a nonexistent IMP/Lab deal up north beggars belief!

Honestly guys, you need to go back and reread your comments, likewise DPF, your blogs. It’s been an hilarious read through this thread. There’s clearly no principles of honesty or genuine analysis at stake but just a desire to win at any cost – fomenting happy mischief aka lying to win an election. Nice

If National does not pull Goldsmith from the ballot by 26 Aug, Lab+Greens will vote for him, and with his already natural electorate Blue Chip seat lead, he will win it despite John key trying to “encourage” C-R voters to vote for the bewailed ACT.

With Conservatives now hunting ACT as well, I’d day its all over for the yellow suit. Bye bye ACT party. Necessary 2014 pruning.

OneTrack

Lance – “Maybe democracy just doesn’t work for them?”

The history of most hard-left regimes seems to bear this out – that the proletariat cant be trusted with a vote. Heavens, they might vote for the “wrong” thing. Then where would we be. Far better to have a Dear Leader to tell the peons what to do.

OneTrack

daniel carter – “The hypocrisy with which the far right can applaud ACT in Epsom while moaning about a nonexistent IMP/Lab deal up north beggars belief!”

How many billboards does Kelvin Davis have up? Has Cunliffe made any more big brother calls to Davis to tell him to pull his head in? Of course there is no deal – nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more.

Correction…the Conjobs were New Zealand’s fourth party. I suspect that they may have been overtaken by the Mana-Internet coalition at the moment. And now it seems the Conjobs are talking up their chances in Napier, held by National since 2005, although Chris Tremain (departing incumbent) had a majority of 3701 at the last election in 2011. And most of the time, the electorate competition mainly seems to be squarely Labour/National.

itstricky

Genter: These people (i.e. Seymour & Rankin) are talking about these things from a position of privilege, they’ve no idea what’s going on.
Wood: They don’t even know what Whanau Ora is.
Smalley: Yes, Whyte hasn’t had a good week, has he?
Seymour: Well, as a matter of fact, Whyte has a PhD from Cambridge, and worked as a banker in the financial sector in London for ….. years….

Smalley (quite rightly rolls eyes to back of head) looks at Seymour with a “you just don’t get it do you, buddy, that’s EXACTLY what Genter was talking about”