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Hamilton and Vettel looked equal throughout the weekend and although they would have had Webber between them it looked as though race day would see them closely duel. However, Vettel has been demoted to the back of grid for being unable to provide a one litre fuel sample. This shakes up both the race and the championship.

Hamilton is the clear favourite to win with odds of 14/25 (1.57) from Blue Square. Certainly Hamilton looks very strong but far from invincible. During free practise two Vettel was quicker and crucially free practice occurs in the same conditions as the race, unlike the other free practice sessions. Webber came 4th in FP2 but appeared to have a cooling issue so should be quicker during the race. With odds of 22/5 (5.40) from Betfair Webber is reasonable odds, having a very competitive car and with the McLaren being quite prone to mechanical failure. For an outside bet, Raikkonen has odds of 31/1 (32.00) from Betfair. 4th is the joint highest he has qualified this year and generally the Lotus is faster during the race than in qualifying. Also, the Lotus usually performs well in warm weather. A comparison could be made with Hungary, also a very warm track that is also resembles a street circuit; Hamilton looked dominant the entire weekend yet both Lotus drivers came very close to winning. A small bet on Raikkonen for victory is unlikely to pay out but would yield a nice profit if it did.

Raikkonen also looks good for a podium with odds of 2/1 (3.00) from Blue Square. Alonso has odds of 1/1 for a podium from Paddy Power
but with Yas Marina being such a difficult course to pass on this is only likely if he gets a good start so probably best watch him for live betting.

Finally, after this race Alonso and Vettel will probably be on about the same number of points. Although Vettel is probably more likely to score higher in the final two races, Alonso’s odds of 9/4 (3.25) from Paddy Power are good value for money given Alonso’s near perfect reliability and ability to score well every race.

In an interesting turn around after the last few races Hamilton has similar odds for pole as Vettel has. Both drivers have around 1/1 (2.00) for victory. This is mainly due to an unusual free practise three. During the second free practice Vettel was fastest with a 0.2 second lead over Hamilton in 2nd. However, in third practise Vettel suffered from some mechanical difficulties and only started doing quick laps with about five minutes remaining on the clock. For almost the entire session Hamilton was over a second quicker than everyone but his team mate and by the end Vettel was half a second off.

FP3 is usually a good indication of qualifying pace so this would suggest Hamilton is best for pole. However, it is unclear how what time Vettel might have put in had he had no mechanical issues. Webber has usually been within a tenth of a second of Vettel so is a good indication of Vettel’s likely performance. Given that Webber was still half a second behind Hamilton this suggests Vettel lacks pace. However, the free practise sessions should be assessed differently at Abu Dhabi. Since qualifying and the race start just before dusk and goes into the night, the closest conditions to qualifying are FP2 and not FP3. On this basis missing out on most of FP3 was not a huge disadvantage for Vettel. Since was quicker than Hamilton in FP2 it looks like Vettel is the better bet. With so much uncertainty though it is probably wiser to avoid betting on qualifying and wait until the results are before betting on the race.

Vettel set to win from pole

Qualifying Results

1st

Vettel

2nd

Webber

3rd

Hamilton

4th

Button

5th

Alonso

6th

Massa

7th

Raikkonen

8th

Perez

9th

Maldonado

10th

Rosberg

11th

Grosjean

12th

Hulkenberg

13th

Senna

14th

Schumacher

15th

Ricciardo

16th

di Resta

17th

Kobayashi

18th

Vergne

Vettel adds another pole position to the record and looks likely collect another win also. His odds are extremely low at 2/5 (1.40) from SkyBet. Although Vettel is most likely to win, betting on other drivers is advised given how little profit can be made from Vettel. Webber has odds of 7/1 (8.00) from Blue Square despite being only a 50th of a second slower than Vettel. If Webber can get a reasonable start then he should be a factor and with such high odds is worth a small bet.

Although Vettel looks to have the advantage, the top 6 cars are separated by only half a second so the fight for the podium should be extremely competitive. Hamilton has odds of 1/1 (2.00) whilst Button and Alonso both have odds of 13/10 (2.30) for the podium, all from
Paddy Power. With the pace so similar it probably is a fight between Hamilton who is the highest up of those three drivers and with Alonso who usually finishes higher than he finishes. There is little to choose between them but with higher odds and more reliability Alonso is better value for money. Perez starts in 8th in a car which usually finishes further up than it qualifies so 3/2 (2.50) for a top 6 finish from Bet 365 is highly recommended. Finally, odds of 2/1 (3.00) for Senna to score points from Blue Square are reasonable given how strong he looked during parts of free practice and Q1.

F1 returns for the second India GP and for the second year running Red Bull look like the team to beat. Vettel heads both free practice sessions, Webber was second in FP2 and the Red Bull has clearly been the fastest car for some races now. The main chance of upsetting this trend could have been Alonso using the experimental exhaust that Massa put to good use in Korea. The Ferrari is clearly extremely competitive with Alonso finishing 3rd in both free practice sessions but it doesn’t look like he has the pace to challenge the Red Bulls.

Vettel is the firm favourite in the battle for pole and his extremely low odds of 2/5 (1.40) from Betfair
reflect this. By contrast, Webber has 5/1 (6.00) from Paddy Power
for pole which is incredibly good value for money. Vettel has only had one pole position in the last eight races, exactly the same number as pole positions that Webber has taken. This is only the third race since the Red Bull became the dominant car and both Red Bull drivers have each taken the 1st place slot on the grid in those two races. Also, Webber was only a 10th behind Vettel in FP2. Although arguably Vettel does have superior pace a small better on Webber for pole is worthwhile since he has such high odds. Although Alonso looks too weak for pole he appears to have the edge over the McLarens, finishing 3 tenths ahead of Hamilton in FP2. Odds of 1/1(2.00) for Alonso to qualify top 3 from Betfair
is a good bet.

Rosberg was running strong in both free practice sessions and may have a successful race after some disappointing recent performances. Odds of 9/2 (5.50) for a top 6 finish from Blue Square
and 1/1 (2.00) for a points finish from Bet 365
are both good value given that the Mercedes suits the long straights in India. Also, although Alonso probably has the edge, Hamilton’s odds of 7/5 (2.40) from Blue Square
for a podium are very high for such a competitive car.

Top 10 can be a difficult bet to make money on. Generally the odds for top 10 are less value for money than other bets. Money can be made from low risk low odds betting but long term the risks are high because even the best cars occasionally retire. The two drivers with the best results are 48 points finishes in 54 races for both Webber and Alonso since 2010. Meanwhile, Raikkonen has scored points in all races this year bar one, so even odds of 1.15 are reasonable value for money. Vettel, Hamilton and Button usually face too many reliability issues or driver errors to see a pay off from long term top 10 bets.

There are many better bets for many of drivers further down the field as some either finish far higher than 10th or do not finish at all. Grosjean has finished all but two race this season in 6th or above or below 10th. One of Maldonado's three points finishes was also a win whilst almost half of Perez's points finishes were also podiums. Better money can be made on other bets than top 10 for these drivers.

Focus on Senna, Koybashi, Di Resta and Hulkenberg but only if the odds are better than 2.0. Earlier in the season di Resta was best for points finishes but recently Hulkenberg and has been better than the rest.

Podiums are much easier to pick than a race but the low odds reflect this, making this a difficult bet to make money on. It can be a good best if two cars both look equally good for victory, more money might be made an betting on both for a podium than both for race winner. With only three space on the podium look elsewhere for low odds low payoff betting.

Podiums can sometimes be good for drivers who statically does well but have struggled in recent races so are being undervalued. Going from a bad phase to race winner is sometimes ambitious so betting on an undervalued podium finish is wiser.

Try and focus on teams who probably will not win but can realistically finish well. Until halfway through 2012 Lotus were especially good bets for podiums, finishing top 3 far higher than their odds would have indicated. However, they now look to have dropped off the pace. Likewise, at the start of the season Mercedes looked promising but have dropped off. The main drivers to watch are Webber, Alonso, Hamilton and Perez. Currently, everyone expects Vettel to do well so currently has relatively low odds. Webber is generally undervalued and with the Red Bull looking so strong he is currently worth betting on. With the Red Bulls looking untouchable the final step on the podium is probably a fight between Alonso and Hamilton. Alonso has made the podium in over half the races this year so is often worth betting on if running well. Hamilton only has six podiums this year so is worth a reserve bet but focus on Alonso. Finally, Perez's pace has yielded him three podiums this, often from very low down positions. The Sauber is quite temperamental, suiting some tracks very well and other struggling for top 10 so Perez is best bet on during live betting.

With the Red Bulls back on the pace and a 77 point lead over McLaren with only 172 points left to grab, only multiple retirements by the Red Bulls could give McLaren a chance. Betting elsewhere is heavily advised.

Qualifying is is difficult to predict compared with the race since all cars start equal unlike the race where you know who is close to the front. Paying attention to the statistics is more important for qualifying than any other bet but usefully the statistics are far clearer for qualifying than other bets.

Four important facts stand out. Red Bull took 87% of pole positions across 2010 and 2011, the majority of which went to Vettel. Hamilton has more polls so far in 2012 than 2010 and 2011 combined. Alonso has only two poll positions in the last two years and both came in the rain. Only three other drivers have taken poll in the last two years, Rosberg, Heidfeld and Schumacher (note that promotion due to penalties are not usually counted by the bookies so Maldonado never took poll in Spain but Schumacher would have been counted as taking pole in Monoco).

Focus on Hamilton and Vettel, comparing their odds, how they perform in the practice sessions, if the car suits the circuit and how they usually perform on the circuit All of this is discussed in pre-qualifying blog post. Webber is also worth a bet now that the Red Bull is showing so much pace and especially on tracks that he does well on. Alonso is always worth a bet if it rains during qualifying so follow the weather or use live betting. Beyond this, never bet on any other car for poll.

Some bookies offer betting on top 3 qualifiers and top 10 qualifiers (who reaches Q3 or Qualifying 3). Webber has been top 3 four times and twice just missed out with a 4th place so this is probably a better bet than poll. For top 10 qualifiers focus on Force India and Maldonado.

Webber

2012

Since 2010

Won

2

7

Pole

2

10

Podium

3

23

Top 6

9

40

Top 10

13

48

Last update: Korea

Webber is usually one of the best value for money drivers. He is generally considered substantially weaker than Vettel but even were this true the fact is that Webber is driving a Red Bull. Reguardless of how many more victories Vettel may have, Webber has a car that can easily reach top 6 if not the podium whilst he is only behind Alonso and Raikkonen for consistency.

Webber has never won from lower than 2nd on the grid so only bet on victory when on he is starting on the front row. Also, Webber has never won a race providing Vettel starts either 1st or 2nd. However, Webber is almost always an excellent bet for victory whenever he qualifies well but Vettel does not make the front row. Vettel has never won from below 3rd and only take victory from 3rd twice yet often Vettel can have lower odds for victory when he qualifies a few places lower than Webber, making Webber excellent value for money in this situation.

With a combination of high consistency and a strong car Webber is an excellent for long term low profit bets. He rarely fails to finish top 6 and has finished top 10 in nearly every race since 2010. Lotus have made top 6 finishes slightly more difficult this year but with the Red Bull currently looking so strong this is a good long term bet. A more risky bet is a podium. Having finished 4th so many times this year Webber has missed out on quite a few podiums this year. A podium is certainly a worth while bet when running well in free practice but focusing on top 6 finishes is usually wiser unless the Red Bull specifically suits the course.

The second race in a row sees an all Red Bull front row although most usually it is Webber who sits in P1. Despite this, Vettel is considered the favourite, with odds of 21/20 (2.05) from Betfair compared with 7/1 (4.50) for Webber to win from Bet 365. Vettel possibly is more likely to win, he has been slightly ahead of Webber most the rest of the weekend, Webber is renowned for his weak starts and it is conceivable that Webber might even hand Vettel the victory on the final lap to support the team. However, even given these factors Webber is still good value for money. He has only been marginally slower, and there’s no guarantee he will have a bad start or hand victory over. If both Red Bulls are very competitive then victory might be decided by some minor factor like which Red Bull driver stays out longer during pit stops or comes out behind traffic. Betting on both drivers is advised. If betting £10, place £7 on Vettel to win £14.35 and £3 on Webber to win £13.50. Alternative, place £5 on Vettel to break even and £5 on Webber to win £22.50.

No other driver looks like to challenge Red Bulls. They have been slightly behind all weekend. Both Hamilton and Alonso have odds of 5/1 (6.00) for victory from SkyBet which is only slightly behind the substantially faster Webber. Both of them are likely to challenge for the podium position behind the Red Bulls with, both having odds of 1/1 (2.00) from Betfair. Alonso is the better bet given the reliability of the Ferrari and that he was ahead of Hamilton in free practice.