As a quantitative ecologist, I sometimes attempt to model species’ abundance and distribution changes in response to environmental change. Often these are species that, for one reason or another, we know a lot about. They may be high profile species of conservation concern, or have some economic or cultural importance. Some are simply model species that many people have studied because they’re easy to study because many people have studied them. Just as often though, we’re missing crucial data on one or more parameters. Frustratingly we don’t always have the time or resources to collect the new ecological or biological data required.

Sometimes in these cases, there are experts who probably have a reasonable idea of what the missing data might be. As scientists, we(rightly) tend to uneasy about the idea of substituting opinion, expert or otherwise, for solid data. On the other hand, as modellers, we’re used to the idea of alternative universes, simulations and uncertainty. Increasingly we have the have the ability to incorporate a good estimate and a measure of uncertainty into models.

Hemming et al. clearly outline a method that allows for improved estimates and increased transparency in how these estimates and the uncertainty around them are elicited. ‘A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol‘ does what it says on the tin: it provides a simple, clear, step-by-step guide to using the IDEA protocol. Read this paper. You won’t regret it. Expert Elicitation is a growing field and any ecologist working in conservation, natural resource management or applied modelling needs this method in their toolbox.