A deal with the US to settle an unknown number of refugees from Australia’s offshore processing centres could mark the end of one of Australia’s most contentious political and moral issues over the past 15 years.

Since offshore processing was restarted in 2001, it has grown into an internationally condemned, secretive regime, subject to hundreds of court cases in Australia and overseas.

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The centres have emptied and swelled, peaking under the former Labor government.

The government’s line, hardened over the years by both Labor and the Coalition, had left it in an immovable position – not one asylum seeker who comes by boat can settle in Australia, lest its policy be seen as a failure.

Australia’s government claims its harsh policies have stopped the boats – despite some recent attempts – and thus the deaths at sea. It’s assumed any future arrivals would be dealt with as they are now – with enhanced screening processes and boat turnbacks.

The ‘Pacific Solution’

Offshore processing restarted in earnest in 2001 after the Tampa affair, when a Norwegian freighter rescued 433 asylum seekers from their sinking vessel, 140km from Christmas Island. Against international law, Australia refused the Tamp entry into its waters, sparking an international controversy.

Dubbed the “Pacific Solution” under then prime minister John Howard, the policy saw all asylum seekers who arrived by boat intercepted at sea and sent straight to offshore camps established on Nauru and Papua New Guinea’s Manus Island.

Christmas Island, closer to Indonesia, was excised from the Australian migration zone to host another centre. A subsequent Labor government would more than 10 years later excise the entire Australian mainland.

Following the “children overboard” incident in October 2001 – and the deaths of 353 men, women and children in the Siev X disaster – asylum seekers were a major political issue and Howard went to a federal election with his infamous declaration that “we will decide who comes to this country and the manner in which they come”.

Howard won the election and offshore processing continued. Concerns about indefinite detention and its impact on physical and mental health was widespread among advocates and rights groups.

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‘Pacific Solution’ ends but the boats restart

The detention camps housed more than 1,500 people. Between 2001 and 2008, 705 people from the offshore centres were resettled in Australia and 401 in New Zealand. Some asylum seekers remained in detention for years, but the boat arrivals slowed, and in 2008 offshore processing was dismantled by the new Labor government, led by Kevin Rudd.

A deal under then prime minister Julia Gillard, signed in mid 2011 with Malaysia, was supposed to see 4,000 refugees taken from Malaysia’s camps in return for it taking 800 asylum seekers who arrived in Australia by boat, but this was struck down by the high court.

Following recommendations from an expert panel which focused largely on the need for a “no advantage” policy, offshore processing on Nauru and Manus Island restarted in August 2012.

An “enhanced screening” process – criticised for its lack of transparency – was introduced to deal with the overwhelming backlog of asylum seekers, which grew to 20,000 by mid-2013.

Amnesty International and the UNHCR released reports condemning the conditions inside the two centres, and the indefinite nature of the detention. Amnesty labelled the Nauru centre “a human rights catastrophe”.

This date would also become the pin for the Coalition government’s planned visa ban.

That night a protest on Nauru descended into a riot, which a group of Salvation Army employees would say in the following days was “an inevitable outcome from a cruel and degrading policy”.

In August a similar agreement to the PNG deal was signed with Nauru, shortly before the federal election which was won by the Coalition, led by Tony Abbott. Almost immediately the new government announced the establishment of a military response to the asylum seeker issue.

The government ended its weekly briefings and began to invoke “on-water matters” in refusing to answer questions about incidents or policy decisions. Journalists had not been allowed inside the centres for some time, but in January 2014 the Nauruan government, which would become increasingly hostile to media attention on issues with its facility, raised the application fee for a media visa to the country to a non-refundable $8,000.

An orange disposable lifeboat that washed up on central Java’s Karangjambe beach in February 2014. The lifeboat was provided by Australian government to return 26 asylum seekers to Indonesia. Photograph: El Darmawan/AAP

In 2015 the government introduced the Border Force Act which made the disclosure of information about conditions inside offshore centres by employees punishable with up to two years in prison. The new laws were highly criticised and many employees or former employees chose to speak out regardless.

Reports and concerns about the conditions in offshore detention centres continued as reports of violence, and physical and mental illness accumulated.

Hundreds of protesters hold a rally outside the Department of Immigration offices in Sydney in February 2016 calling on the government not to send children of asylum seekers back to Nauru following a high court decision. Photograph: Dean Lewins/AAP

The legality of offshore processing itself had been taken to the highest court. In February 2016 it was found to be legal, based on a retrospective amendment to the Migration Act, which the court said allowed for the commonwealth’s involvement in detaining someone in another country.

It was not the only high court challenge rendered redundant by a last-minute change of policy or regulation.

In October 2016, on the eve of a high court challenge by medical groups to the Border Force Act’s secrecy provisions, health workers were carved out of the Border Force Act’s disclosure provisions, although other employees like teachers and social workers remained subject.

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What now?

The number of refugees the US will take has not been confirmed and Australia has said the intake will be subject to the US security vetting, so those in detention still do not have any guarantees of resettlement.

Remaining refugees on Nauru will be eligible for 20-year temporary visas on Nauru, the government says.

Refugees on Nauru and Manus – many of whom have been there for more than three years and no longer wish to settle in Australia after their treatment – reported some support for the deal as they understood it before Sunday’s announcement.

The special minister of state, Scott Ryan, categorically denied Australia would be involved in a “people-swap” of refugees with the US.

Meanwhile the government is also negotiating with the Senate crossbench to pass its bill to permanently ban any of the 3,100 people on Manus, Nauru and in the Australian community who arrived by a certain type of vessel after a certain date, from ever returning.