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May 23, 2019

World News | Theresa May clings to power as Brexit gambit backfires

Guy Faulconbridge

5-7 minutes

LONDON
(Reuters) - Prime Minister Theresa May was clinging on to power on
Thursday after her final Brexit gambit backfired, overshadowing a
European election that has shown a United Kingdom still riven by
division over its EU divorce.
May’s departure will deepen the
Brexit crisis as a new leader is likely to want a more decisive split
with the European Union, raising the chances of a confrontation with the
bloc and an election which could usher in a socialist government.
In
such a fluid situation, the world’s fifth largest economy faces an
array of options including an orderly exit with a deal, a no-deal exit,
an election or a second referendum which could ultimately reverse the
2016 decision to leave the EU.
May, who won the top job in the
turmoil which followed the 2016 referendum on EU membership, has
repeatedly failed to get parliament’s approval for the divorce deal she
pitched as a way to heal the Brexit divisions of the country.
But
her last gambit, offering a possible second referendum and closer
trading arrangements with the EU, triggered a revolt by some
Brexit-supporting ministers. She is now under pressure to name her
departure date.
House of Commons leader Andrea Leadsom resigned,
saying she felt May’s approach would not deliver Brexit. The BBC said
more ministers could follow. “May set to go after Brexit fiasco,” read
The Sun newspaper’s front page, while The Times said: “May prepares to
quit after cabinet mutiny.”
Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said
May would still be prime minister when U.S. President Donald Trump
arrives for a state visit on June 3.
“Theresa May will be prime minister to welcome him, and rightly so,” Hunt said.
While
the country remains deeply divided over Brexit, most agree that it will
shape the future of the United Kingdom for generations to come.
Pro-Europeans
fear Brexit will undermine London’s position as one of the world’s top
two financial capitals and weaken the West as it grapples with Trump’s
unpredictable presidency and growing assertiveness from Russia and
China.
The loss of Britain for the EU is the biggest blow yet to
more than 60 years of effort to forge European unity after two world
wars, though the 27 other members of the bloc have shown surprising
unity during the tortuous negotiations.
May, who has shown
obduracy during one of the most tumultuous premierships of recent
British history, had promised to leave office if lawmakers approved her
Brexit deal but she is now under intense pressure to name a date.
Sterling,
which tumbled on the 2016 Brexit vote to its biggest one-day fall since
the early 1970s, dropped 0.4% to a new 4-1/2 month low of $1.2605. The
yield on the United Kingdom’s 10-year gilt fell to 0.991%, the lowest
since March 29, the day Britain had been due to leave the EU.
Downing Street refused to comment on May’s future.

BREXIT CRISIS

Nearly
three years after the United Kingdom voted 52% to 48% to leave the EU,
it remains unclear how, when or even if it will leave the European club
it joined in 1973. The current deadline to leave is Oct. 31.
When
May goes, her Conservative Party will elect a leader who is likely to
want to renegotiate the deal May agreed with the EU in November, raising
the chances of a confrontation with the bloc and a national election.
The
bookmakers’ favorite to succeed May is Boris Johnson, the face of the
official campaign to leave the EU, who has said he wants a more decisive
split with the bloc. More than a dozen others are seen as potential
candidates.

If
there was an election and the Conservatives lost, the winner would be
Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, a veteran socialist who wants to
nationalize swathes of the British economy but has not said what
shareholders will get in return.
U.S. investment bank JPMorgan
raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 25% from 15%, saying its
base case is that Johnson becomes prime minister, followed by a general
election and then another delay to Brexit.
Investment bank BNP
Paribas said on Thursday it now saw a 40% probability of Britain exiting
the European Union without a transition agreement in place.
The
chairman of the powerful Conservative 1922 Committee, which can make or
break prime ministers, told lawmakers that May planned to campaign in
the European poll on Thursday before meeting with the group on Friday to
discuss her leadership.
“I will be meeting the prime minister on
Friday following her campaigning in the European elections tomorrow and
following that meeting I will be consulting with the 1922 executive,”
1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady told reporters.
The Times
newspaper reported that May would name a date for her departure on
Friday. May will remain as prime minister while her successor is elected
in a two-stage process, the newspaper said.
The delay to Brexit
means voters across the United Kingdom are going to the polls on
Thursday in a European parliamentary election that has been fought
almost exclusively over the EU divorce.
According to polling data
published before polls opened, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party was on
course to win and May’s Conservatives are on course to do very badly.
Results are expected after 2100 GMT on Sunday.

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