Supplementary Materials

Fig. S2. Same as fig. S1, but for CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CESM-CAM5, and CNRM-CM5.

Fig. S3. Same as fig. S1, but for GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, and GISS-E2-R.

Fig. S4. Same as fig. S1, but for INMCM4.0,MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M, and
NorESM1-ME models.

Fig. S5. Same as Fig. 1, but for the RCP 4.5 scenario.

Fig. S6. Regional average moisture balance time series (historical + RCP 8.5) from the first
ensemble member of each model over the Central Plains.

Fig. S7. Same as fig. S6, but for the Southwest.

Fig. S8. Pearson’s correlation coefficients for three time intervals from the models over the
Central Plains: PDSI versus SM-30cm, PDSI versus SM-2m, and SM-30cm versus SM-2m.

Fig. S9. Same as fig. S8, but for the Southwest.

Fig. S10. Same as Fig. 2, but for the RCP 4.5 scenario.

Fig. S11. Same as Fig. 3, but for the RCP 4.5 scenario.

Fig. S12. Same as Fig.4, but for the RCP 4.5 scenario.

Fig. S13. Same as Fig. 5, but for the RCP 4.5 scenario.

Table S1. Continuous model ensembles from the CMIP5 experiments (1850–2099, historical +
RCP8.5 scenario) used in this analysis, including the modeling center or group that supplied the output, the number of ensemble
members, and the approximate spatial resolution.

Table S2. The number of soil layers integrated for our CMIP5 soil moisture metrics (SM-30cm
and SM-2m), and the approximate depth of the bottom soil layer.