If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

NFL Number One Draft Picks are not Always Lucky

Published: 21st Feb 12 1:39 am

by J.M. Nicholas
J.M. Nicholas

3 Rants

Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

For every Peyton Manning, there is a Tim Couch. For every Cam Newton, there is a JaMarcus Russell. Franchise quarterbacks are often the trendy choice for teams lucky (or unlucky) enough to get the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. Every number one draft pick is basically a roll of the dice, and quite often, those franchise quarterbacks end up crapping out.

In the last 20 years, 12 quarterbacks have been selected number one overall in the NFL Draft. Out of those 12 selections, only six ever made the Pro Bowl. Three of those 12 quarterbacks reached the Super Bowl. Only two of those 12 actually played in and won the Super Bowl, and both were named Manning.

Peyton Manning was drafted in 1998, and since then, 11 out of the last 14 NFL Drafts have begun with a quarterback going first overall. Several of these quarterbacks have made the playoffs recently. Some, like Alex Smith and Mike Vick, have seen a resurgence in their careers. In fact, other than the Manning brothers and Drew Bledsoe, Smith and Vick have been the only number one drafted quarterbacks in the last twenty years to reach the conference championship games. Bledsoe won a Super Bowl in 2002, as Tom Brady’s backup.

A quarterback is only as good as the team that surrounds him. Obviously, if a team has the number one pick in the draft, chances are slim that the quarterback will be surrounded by an abundance of talent. Players like David Carr and Tim Couch were brought into tough situations, and were never really offered a good team to succeed with. Consequently, number one picks like JaMarcus Russell never developed into the players they were scouted to be. The truth is, the NFL Draft is a gamble, no matter who gets taken first overall. One draft pick does not make a good team. Success stems from structure, study, and even a little bit of luck.

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

It is 100% that Manning will play this coming year. I am a Colts fan and I want to see them rebuild and keep winning. With Luck they lose for years to come while Manning will be going to playoffs with another team. There will be no shortage of offers to Peyton. I think the team should be more loyal to Peyton for all he has already done while Luck hasn't done squat and may never do anything. St. Louis is going to make out like a bandit trading the right to RGIII. If we were smart, we would do the same and take a QB later in the first or the early second round. The odds of success with that are just as good PLUS you have filled some holes at other positions where the risk is not so great. The Patriots never see any need to get the first rated QB but they are geared to winning every year and not going on five year rebuilding programs.......

Manning may play next season (not 100%) but highly unlikely he'd play at the level needed to lead a team anywhere. Given the squad the Colts will likely field, it would take more than just Manning in his prime to get this team anywhere. And Manning won't be anywhere near his prime based on reports and the fact he is getting old. So even IF Manning walks out on that field (and that's a big IF), he isn't going to be what he once was.

Colts are going to have some down years regardless of who is behind center. If we don't bring in a good QB soon (Luck or otherwise), those down years are going be followed by even more down years.

Unless some team is willing to overpay for the #1 pick (not a sure thing), then you take Luck or Griffin and build around them.

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

Manning may play next season (not 100%) but highly unlikely he'd play at the level needed to lead a team anywhere. Given the squad the Colts will likely field, it would take more than just Manning in his prime to get this team anywhere. And Manning won't be anywhere near his prime based on reports and the fact he is getting old. So even IF Manning walks out on that field (and that's a big IF), he isn't going to be what he once was.

Colts are going to have some down years regardless of who is behind center. If we don't bring in a good QB soon (Luck or otherwise), those down years are going be followed by even more down years.

Unless some team is willing to overpay for the #1 pick (not a sure thing), then you take Luck or Griffin and build around them.

Luck would get you the biggest haul of picks in the history of the NFL. Peyton will be back and some contender will pay the big bucks to get him and he WILL play like the Peyton of old. I really think he will play for four or five more years. Look how well Farve played in Minnesota the first year.... Perhaps his best season ever and Peyton is almost five years younger than Farve was then.

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

Well, you were wrong then and you will certainly be wrong now.... He isn't doing all of that work for nothing......

With nerve regeneration some of it is out of his hands. Rehab can only go so far. It's very unpredictable and of coarse he's working hard what else is he supposed to do until it is absolutely certain one way or another that he can make it back or he can't. I still say he doesn't make it all the way back to 100% and that he won't play at anything less. The last thing I want to see is Peyton on the field a shell of his former self. If I end up being wrong I'll gladly be wrong.

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

Luck would get you the biggest haul of picks in the history of the NFL. Peyton will be back and some contender will pay the big bucks to get him and he WILL play like the Peyton of old. I really think he will play for four or five more years. Look how well Farve played in Minnesota the first year.... Perhaps his best season ever and Peyton is almost five years younger than Farve was then.

Willing to bet the Colts future on Manning being back and being just as good as he was prior to surgery?

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

Willing to bet the Colts future on Manning being back and being just as good as he was prior to surgery?

I'm glad you aren't the GM.

Oh? Well I would have a boat load of picks to fix lots of positions and still get a first round QB. With my plan, the Colts compete and win for the next four to five years. With your plan, they will have more of these 2-14 and 3-13 seasons and they won't be competitive for several years. So you draft Luck and he turns out to be really good. He will be playing behind a bad offensive line with no really talented receivers to throw to. You will be fortunate if Luck ever plays a full season without serious injury. Manning will get rid of the ball faster behind that line and he will play every game for you. This is just my opinion that I value highly. The Colts will lose a lot of the fan base by the time they get competitive again. Your don't think that March 4 season ticket deadline has something to do with when this decision will be made? Grow up......

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

RG3 is looking might impressive I like his mental edge along with leadership intangibles combo he has along with his ability to make all the throws and being able to make plays when the pocket is collapsing and staying in the pocket while taking hits. I think the Luck vs RG3 is a lot closer than people make it out to be. I think RG3 will be the better pro but both should be great.

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

With your plan, we'd have last year all over again and be in the same position for the next draft

Grow up? I'm just being realistic. I'm not placing all my hopes on Manning returning 100%.

I am not either. I come aways with a first round QB draft pick and lots of player in case Peyton is not 100%. You are the one putting all your hopes on Luck. Not a good bet to do that with ANY rookie QB.......

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

And if that is true why would the Colts want to punt on the pick? That would mean there's a lot of certainty surrounding the #1 pick.

What you are doing with that point of view is being very foolish. Luck is the most overvalued draft choice of all time. People will give up a mountain to get him. The only thing sillier than that is have the chance for all of those picks and overvaluing Luck even more and keeping him. He is still at best a 50/50 shot at being a good NFL QB. The odds are much longer on him being a star..... Trade that pick and fix the Colts defense and they will be contenders for years to come.....

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

If the odds are only 50-50 that he'll be a good NFL QB then there wouldn't be a mountain of picks available for him. You can't have it both ways. It's never a sure thing anyone will be a success or failure in the draft but there would never be a consensus #1 pick nor a pick that's worth a mountain of picks if the odds were 50/50.

You get no argument from me on the Colts needing to shore up that defense. ...although IMHO a large part of the problem with the defense is that it's a poor design and silly management decisions.

Not being saddled with Manning's contract will give them money to shore up the defense in other ways.

Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

------

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

[QUOTE=Bball;1384063]If the odds are only 50-50 that he'll be a good NFL QB then there wouldn't be a mountain of picks available for him. You can't have it both ways. It's never a sure thing anyone will be a success or failure in the draft but there would never be a consensus #1 pick nor a pick that's worth a mountain of picks if the odds were 50/50.

Not all teams think he is worth so much, so yes, two or three teams believe he is a better shot that 50/50 and they are offering the ranch to have him. I'm going to try and explain this to you one more time. Even if Luck becomes a superstar, the Colts will be better off taking all of those picks and going with a lesser QB prospect in the long run..... Dan Marino was a superstar. That led to one SB appearance... There are other such examples.... So no matter if you think Luck is 60/40 or 80/20, in the long run you can fix up the whole team. Look at the Ravens. They have a mediocre QB but they are a threat every year because they have a good defense. They have even won the SB with a mediocre QB because they dominated the other side of the ball.......

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

If the odds are only 50-50 that he'll be a good NFL QB then there wouldn't be a mountain of picks available for him. You can't have it both ways. It's never a sure thing anyone will be a success or failure in the draft but there would never be a consensus #1 pick nor a pick that's worth a mountain of picks if the odds were 50/50.

Not all teams think he is worth so much, so yes, two or three teams believe he is a better shot that 50/50 and they are offering the ranch to have him. I'm going to try and explain this to you one more time. Even if Luck becomes a superstar, the Colts will be better off taking all of those picks and going with a lesser QB prospect in the long run..... Dan Marino was a superstar. That led to one SB appearance... There are other such examples.... So no matter if you think Luck is 60/40 or 80/20, in the long run you can fix up the whole team. Look at the Ravens. They have a mediocre QB but they are a threat every year because they have a good defense. They have even won the SB with a mediocre QB because they dominated the other side of the ball.......

We don't even know what Grigson could do with a bunch of picks yet. Luck is the surer thing. It is a QB league these days and the great ones don't come around very often.

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

We don't even know what Grigson could do with a bunch of picks yet. Luck is the surer thing. It is a QB league these days and the great ones don't come around very often.

Well, let us examine that statement. Right now there is Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Big Ben and some people consider Rivers, Stafford, Cam Newton and Atlanta's QB close. That is ten. More come along every year. More are capable of running the pass happy offenses.... So I don't think they are as rare as you do. What is really rare is the opportunity to have two or three extra first round picks and two or three second round picks. If Grigson drops the ball in the draft then he shouldn't have been given the job and he should be fired. I have no doubt that both he and the new coach will not be around when the Colts return to winning in five years or so. Such is the fate of people rebuilding teams. JOB did a great job of rebuilding the Pacers but he was fired because the people demanded a winner right now...........

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

JOB did a great job of rebuilding the Pacers but he was fired because the people demanded a winner right now....

Yeah, JOB sure did a great job of rebuilding the Pacers.... If you consider overplaying a wasted-up scrub way too many minutes out of position every night (and sticking with him while his defensive assignment is exploiting the advantage EVERY possession down the floor), playing an absolutely ASININE offensive scheme, talking about emphasizing defense and then playing Troy Murphy over 30 minutes a night, publicly ripping your starting center's game at a time when he is playing the best of his career to that point, firing VERY competent assistants and replacing them with guys with NO coaching experience, and generally losing the locker room and running off the fans. Not to mention that HE QUIT on his own players.

GREAT REBUILDING JOB JIM!

Last edited by Sandman21; 02-28-2012 at 12:07 AM.

"Nobody wants to play against Tyler Hansbrough NO BODY!" ~ Frank Vogel

"And David put his hand in the bag and took out a stone and slung it. And it struck the Philistine on the head and he fell to the ground. Amen. "
Want your own "Just Say No to Kamen" from @mkroeger pic? http://twitpic.com/a3hmca

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

Because there are more than a few GMs who think RGIII is the next QB of a decade....... Next year more GMs will think some other player is the QB of the decade....... Good QBs come along every year. Some GMs just aren't good at spotting them but they have their chances (Miami). If Luck is anything less than the equal of Peyton (and he won't be), the Colts will be in the sewer for a decade over this decision.........................

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

Because there are more than a few GMs who think RGIII is the next QB of a decade....... Next year more GMs will think some other player is the QB of the decade....... Good QBs come along every year. Some GMs just aren't good at spotting them but they have their chances (Miami). If Luck is anything less than the equal of Peyton (and he won't be), the Colts will be in the sewer for a decade over this decision.........................

What does teams being interested in trading for RGIII have to do with Luck? Everyone knows that the Rams are trading that pick which is why teams are going to be offering some ridiculous packages for him.

OTOH, everyone knows that the Colts are drafting Luck and that's that. No one is going to waste their time trying to pry something away that's not available in the first place. If Luck were in fact available, then the packages teams would throw at us would be even better than the ones the Rams will get for RGIII.

Re: Irsay: Talking regularly with Manning about staying with team.

What if Luck has to rely heavily on the team's defense to help him win games rather than needing to score every possession?

I'd like to see the Colts, no matter who is under center, begin to get away from such a QB-centric system that it ultimately creates a monster at QB that must be fed contracts in the top 1% of the league's salary.

So one, you're getting away from the team revolving so much around the QB to win games and two, you're not spotlighting the QB and making him a star to the point he becomes a drag on the salary cap and hurts your ability to field a balanced team.

Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

------

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."