Central Bank Signals on Election Week: Fed, RBA, RBNZ Meetings

Monday, November 5, 2018

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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week

In addition to the spotlight-stealing U.S. election taking place this week, three of the G-10 currency central banks, including the Fed, have policy meetings. Amid the election tumult, the Fed, RBA and RBNZ are all likely to hold rates. The Fed and RBNZ are both likely to sound slightly hawkish, while the RBA is likely to err a bit dovish. After last week’s strong employment numbers, Fed policymakers are likely to indicate a December rate hike is likely. The RBNZ will probably be more noncommittal in their hawkishness, and the RBA will almost certainly be noncommittal in their more dovish stance.

At the BOC, Governor Poloz is likely to sound somewhat hawkish amid Canadian policymakers’ clear signals in favor of normalizing policy. The three ECB policymakers speaking this week could send a similar signal, though they are likely to be less blunt about it than their Canadian counterpart. Governor Kuroda of the BOJ is likely to signal that the bank is trending dovish, as inflation was revised down yet again. Three speeches from SNB policymakers are likely to sound more neutral, though they too could err dovish. Finally, the lone speaker from the Norges Bank, Nicolaisen, is likely to score neutral or dovish, albeit about the crypto market rather than monetary policy.

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