Sunday, November 04, 2012

Las Vegas Oddsmaker Explains Why He Predicts Romney Landslide

On May 30th, I made a prediction that shocked the readers of TownHall. I predicted a Romney landslide- with Obama leading in every poll.

I did not make that prediction as a political columnist, or as the former Libertarian Presidential contender, or the 2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee. I relied on my career as a Las Vegas oddsmaker. Long before I got into politics, I started out as the Network Oddsmaker and NFL Analyst for CNBC (then known as Financial News Network). I've made my living for the past 27 years predicting the winners of sporting events, like the Super Bowl and March Madness. I did it well enough to be awarded my own 180 pound granite star on Las Vegas Blvd- the only oddsmaker ever inducted into the Las Vegas Walk of Stars (along with Vegas legends such as Elvis, Frank Sinatra, Wayne Newton, Dean Martin, Liberace, and Sammy Davis Jr).

But it's my political predictions that have turned heads in the national media.

In November of 2004, only days before the Presidential election, I went on CNBC and predicted a Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every poll at the time showed Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax called it the most accurate prediction of the 2004 Presidential election.

In October of 2006, I went on Fox News to predict the GOP would get slaughtered in the midterm election and lose Congress. They did.

In December 2011, before the GOP primary, I predicted Mitt Romney would win the GOP Presidential nomination and go on to win the Presidency. For the next few months, Romney trailed by a wide margin to a range of contenders- Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum. It seemed no one wanted Mitt for President. It seemed no one believed in Mitt. No one, that is, except this Las Vegas oddsmaker and capitalist evangelist.

Fast forward to May 2012 after Romney clinched the GOP Presidential, but trailed in every poll to President Obama. I boldly predicted a Mitt Romney landslide here at TownHall.

Fast forward to June 2012, when experts forecast a defeat for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in his recall election. Unions were pouring unheard of sums into the race in a longtime Democratic state that welcomes union rights. I boldly predicted a Walker landslide victory of 7 to 10 points right here at TownHall. He won by exactly 7 (despite reported Democratic voter irregularities).

For the past month, as Mitt Romney trailed badly in every poll, especially the all-important battleground states, I continued to predict a big Romney victory. Why? Based on pure gut instincts. This election is Reagan/Carter all over again. And I always believed the results would be the same: a Reagan-like landslide.

Today I’m making it official:

Mitt Romney will win the Presidency, and it won’t be close.

I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory. With an outside shot at 10 points. Electorally it won’t be that close. Romney will win many states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Romney even wins one or two Democratic "safe states" like Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey. On election night, Democrats will be in shock and mourning as the results come in.

In the days before the first Presidential debate, polls showed Romney trailing badly in most of those states. But, as I’ve argued from day one, the polls were always wrong. They are badly skewed towards Democrats. Quite simply they are over-polling Democratic voters and assuming a turnout that looks like 2008, when record numbers of Democrats came out for Obama. The turnout on November 6th will look nothing like 4 years ago.

Here are several specific reasons I predict a comfortable Romney victory on election day:

· The news media is ignoring signs of mass revulsion towards Obama. In the West Virginia Democrat primary, a felon got 40% of the vote versus Obama. In deep blue Massachusetts and Connecticut, GOP Senate candidates are even, or leading in recent polls. In pro union Wisconsin, Walker won by a country mile. But worst of all for Mr. Obama, several recent polls show Romney competitive in Illinois- Obama’s home state. Romney is actually winning by a landslide in the suburbs of Obama’s Chicago. Even in Cook County, the country’s biggest Democratic stronghold, Romney leads by double digits among independents (43-31) and white voters (53-40). These are very bad signs for Obama.

· In 2008 Democrats overwhelmingly controlled the majority of Governorships. Today Republicans control the majority of Governorships. Presidential elections are always steered in each state by the Governor- the most powerful force in state politics.

· After the 2010 census, electoral votes were added to states that lean Republican in elections: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah. Deep blue Democrat states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Massachusetts lost electoral votes.

That brings up an interesting point. Why is everyone running away from these ultra liberal, high tax states in the first place? Isn’t that alone proof of the failure of Democrat ideas?

· Next, follow the money trail. Yes, Obama is raising plenty of money, although there is a major question if it's coming from illegal foreign contributors. But forget all that. What matters is that in 2008 Obama overwhelmed McCain by out-spending him 10 to 1 down the stretch. That won’t happen in 2012. Romney is even, or can out-spend Obama, in the last 2 weeks of the election. That makes a huge difference in the outcome.

· Christians will turn out in record numbers this year. Obama has offended Christians again and again. Last election 20 million evangelical Christians did not vote. They will turn out in record numbers in 2012 to defeat the most anti-Christian President in U.S. history. How motivated are Christians? Did you see the long lines around the country to support Chick-fil-A a few weeks ago? I predict you’ll see those same lines on election day. It's time to stand up to a man destroying our values, killing jobs, fatally damaging our economy, and abandoning Israel. Christians have had enough of turning the other cheek.

· Voter rolls have been purged in 2012 of felons and illegals in many states- particularly Florida and Ohio. Turnout of Democrats will be nothing like 2008.

Which brings up another important question. What kind of political party relies on felons and illegals to win elections? The Democratic Party of Barack Obama.

· The “Enthusiasm Factor” for Romney is huge. Conservatives are focused, intense, motivated, and enthusiastic. Democrats turned out for Obama in record numbers in 2009. Today they are demoralized. A big edge goes to Romney on Election Day as conservatives, white voters, middle class voters and independents turn out in record numbers for Romney.

I know several people who voted for Obama in 2008, but never again. Does anyone know a McCain voter who will vote for Obama in 2012? There are none.

. Jewish voters are not a large percentage of the electorate, but their numbers are important in places like Florida and Ohio. Democrats will be shocked at the Jewish vote totals on election day. If I know 100 Jews...the vote breakdown was around 80% for Obama in 2008. Not this time. Obama has thrown Israel under the bus and treated Netanyahu with disrespect. This time around it's about 50% to 55% with my 100 Jewish friends. That's enough of a change to tip a few key states like Florida and Ohio (and elect Josh Mandel U.S. Senator in Ohio).

· Finally, history proves that a majority of undecided voters break for the challenger. Romney will take most of the undecided voters on election day- just like Reagan did versus Jimmy Carter in 1980. Romney’s fantastic debate performance gave them confidence to choose the challenger.

This is Carter/Reagan all over again. The same horrible economy. The same economically ignorant fool in the White House bringing misery to Americans. The same economic collapse under the weight of socialist, pro union, soak the rich, demonize the business owners, policies.

I predict the same result on election day. Mitt Romney in a landslide.

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