Initial Reaction: 40% Positive Toward Kagan Nomination

Excellent/Good ratings below average for recent court nominees

PRINCETON, NJ -- A Gallup immediate-reaction poll to President Barack Obama's nomination of Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court finds 40% of Americans rating the choice as "excellent" or "good," and 14% rating it as "poor." Overall, Kagan's ratings are similar to those for Samuel Alito and Harriet Miers, but not as positive as those for Sonia Sotomayor and John Roberts.

The Gallup poll was conducted May 10, after Obama's announcement of Kagan as his choice to fill the seat of retiring Justice John Paul Stevens. Gallup has conducted immediate-reaction polls to gauge initial public opinion for each of the last five Supreme Court nominees, dating back to George W. Bush's choice of John Roberts in 2005.

Kagan's 40% combined excellent/good ratings are technically the lowest Gallup has measured, but this comparatively lower positive evaluation is tied to the fact that Americans are less likely to express an opinion about her (24%) than they were for the four prior nominees (with an average of 17% "no opinion"). Her "poor" rating of 14% is no worse than those of other recent high-court nominees.

As would be expected for a nominee chosen by a Democratic president, Democrats rate Kagan much more positively than do independents or Republicans. Independents are, however, more positive (35% excellent/good) than negative (10% poor) about the choice, while Republicans are twice as likely to say the choice was poor as to say it was either excellent or good.

If confirmed by the Senate, Kagan would give the Supreme Court three female justices for the first time. The poll finds men (39%) and women (40%) equally likely to give the Kagan nomination a positive rating, though men are at the same time more likely than women to give it a "poor" rating.

By contrast, women's initial reaction to Sotomayor's nomination last year was much more positive than men's (53% to 41%). But men (43%) and women (44%) gave similar excellent or good ratings in 2005 to Bush's choice of Miers, who later withdrew her nomination before a confirmation vote took place.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,004 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 10, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

The majority of Americans in all key demographic subgroups continue to favor allowing openly gay men and women to serve in the military. At the national level, views haven't changed since last year, with 70% currently in favor and 25% opposed.

The majority of Americans say it doesn't matter to them whether President Obama nominates a Protestant to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens, the only Protestant now on the court. The majority also say it doesn't matter if the new nominee is a minority or a woman.