000
FXUS63 KABR 011952
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.
KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTEREDPOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
ISOLD/WDLYSCT -SHRA/SHRA OR -TSRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THERES A SMALL CHANCE
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT KABR AND KATY BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS. LEFT OUT OF TAFS
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE CAN
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF ANY TSRA AFFECT
KABR/KATY WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BRING CIGS AND/OR VSBY INTO MVFR.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT