Electing Gallegos’ successor: Five story lines

Texas State Sen. Mario Gallegos’ untimely passing on October 16 has triggered the start of at least five distinct potential political story lines. All five are interrelated to varying degrees and are relevant for Houston-area political dynamics and/or legislative politics in Austin in 2013 and beyond.

1. Will Gallegos, who remains on the ballot, defeat Republican R.W. Bray in the November 6 election? As Senate District 6 (SD-6) is arguably the third most Democratic senate district in the state, a Gallegos victory is all but certain.

2. Assuming Gallegos wins, will Gov. Rick Perry fast-track the expedited election to replace him or delay the electoral process for partisan advantage? If the governor follows the same path as in 2006 when state Rep. Glenda Dawson (R-Pearland) passed away at a comparable point in the electoral cycle, the new SD-6 senator could be sworn in before the end of January 2013, even if a runoff is required. However, if the governor chooses to drag his feet, Gallegos’ successor might not arrive in Austin until late April. The biennial regular legislative session runs from January 8 to May 27.

3. Will Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Fort Worth) be re-elected in SD-10 on November 6? If Davis wins, Democrats would hold 11 of 30 seats in the Senate until Gallegos’ Democratic replacement arrives. But if Davis is defeated by Republican Mark Shelton in the state’s only competitive Senate race this year, then Republicans would hold two-thirds of the Senate seats. This would allow the GOP Senate delegation to respect the Senate’s traditional two-thirds rule, which in most instances requires a bill be supported by two-thirds of the senators to reach the floor for a vote, while at the same time passing any legislation that enjoyed unanimous GOP backing, even in the face of unanimous Democratic opposition. If Davis loses, Perry will have a stronger incentive to delay the arrival of the next SD-6 senator than if Davis is re-elected and Democrats have enough seats without her/him to block legislation under the two-thirds rule if they remain united.

4. Will state Rep. Carol Alvarado (D-Houston) face a credible challenger in her bid to replace Gallegos? Alvarado would appear to be Gallegos’ anointed successor and has a strong ground game, which will be vital in what is likely to be a low turnout special election. Her most widely mentioned potential rival is former Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia who, like Alvarado, is very well-known in the district and has a well-stocked campaign war chest containing over $600,000 left over from her tenure as county commissioner. A potential wild card candidate in this race conceivably could be Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia if his re-election bid is unsuccessful. Garcia is the most competitive of the countywide Democratic candidates and is quite likely to be re-elected, but as recent Harris County electoral trends have shown, even excellent candidates often are unsuccessful when swimming against adverse partisan tides.

5. If Alvarado is victorious in the SD-6 special election, who will replace her in House District 145 (HD-145)? It is perhaps too early to begin speculating this far into the future, although when thinking of potential candidates one would first look to leading Democratic figures who are either bona fide HD-145 residents or at least own property or rent in the district, thereby allowing them to make a minimally credible claim of residency under the state’s rather opaque legislation governing residency. Depending on the electoral process, if Alvarado is elected senator, the new HD-145 representative could assume office as early as March or as late as August (i.e., long after the regular session has ended).

If R.W. Bray shocks the world on November 6, the discussion of the four other plot threads will be moot. If not, Gallegos’ victory on that date will set in motion a series of events that will determine who represents SD-6 in Austin, which — for at least the time being — also will convert Houston’s newest senator into the metropolitan area’s most visible and influential Democratic Hispanic leader.

Mark P. Jonesis the Baker Institute’s fellow in political science as well as the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies and chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.