One puzzling result there which is not commented upon is the massive choice of a "third party" by Hispanics, around 40%. What "third party"? Is this a local Georgian phenomenon? Is this a feature of Hispanic politics beyond Georgia? Does this have the potential of changing the political landscape? Shouldn't you pursue the issue? Thanks.

11:31 am April 23, 2014

George Chidi wrote:

I'm looking at the actual study. The methodology notes that the sample of 500 households was weighted "to reflect current demographics." And it's a telephone survey. While, as a Democrat, I might like to sit back and cheer a result that shows the Republican Party weakening, the nonsensical Hispanic voter results lead me to wonder if the results are masking a major sampling bias. What did interviewers do when encountering a Hispanic survey participant with limited English proficiency? Was there any effort made to determine voter eligibility -- did Survey Sampling International cull these phone numbers from the voter registry or from other commercially-available phone lists?

The Hispanic voter result could be a sign of general disgust with Georgia politics -- a Republican Party that appears to hate immigrants and the poor, and a Democratic Party that doesn't appear to respect Latino social values. But I'm more inclined to believe that interviewers did not distinguish between Hispanic citizens and noncitizens, and that noncitizens or those with limited English proficiency offered ... weird ... answers. That, assuming they bothered to stay on the phone at all. A few weird answers, combined with extrapolating a result from an undersample, leads to ... this.

1:47 pm April 24, 2014

Lunaville wrote:

The Libertarian, the Green Party, and other political groups attract a lot of interest across racial lines in Georgia. The Republicans and Democrats, however, have colluded to make it extremely difficult for these parties to access the ballot.

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