Asia Pacific excluding China to add 12.1GW annually by 2022

ASIA-PACIFIC: Additional annual wind power capacity in Asia Pacific excluding China (APEC) could reach 12.1GW by 2022, according to a new report -- more than double the 5.5GW added in 2017.

The auction system in India has potential to drive growth, Make believes (pic credit: Chetan Soni)

India’s shift to an auction system and the government’s ambition to tender 10GW annually will help drive this growth, according to analysts at Make Consulting, part of the Wood Group.

In Australia, initiatives at state level will drive growth while the governing Liberal party feud with the opposition Labor party over the final design of the proposed national energy guarantee (NEG) scheme.

The analysts also expect Japan to reduce the time spent on lengthy environmental impact assessments and overcome grid uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Make anticipates Taiwan will hold further auctions post-2025, following the commissioning of projects tendered in 2018.

The analysts predict cumulative capacity in the region will reach 141GW in its ten-year outlook period — up from just under 46GW today.

India

In a research note, Make describes India as being "mostly reliant on large-scale auctions", and links the shift to tenders as a potential driver of record growth.

India held its first auction in February 2017 and has since held further tenders at state level, as well as at national level.

The shift to a tendering system has also seen prices fall — from a pre-auction feed-in tariff (FiT) rate of INR 4-6kWh ($0.058-0.087/kWh) to the record-low rate of INR 2.43/kWh ($0.037/kWh) in the Gujarat state auction in December 2017.

India has just over 33GW installed, according to Windpower Intelligence, the research and data division of Windpower Monthly.

Australia

Political infighting over the final design of the country’s National Energy Guarantee (NEG) scheme — a policy proposed to reduce emissions and ensure reliability by encouraging retailers to invest in dispatchable energy supply — prevents the national government from promoting growth, Make claimed.

There is also uncertainty over the replacement of the national renewable energy target (RET) in Australia, and this hinders potential growth, the analysts added.

Australia is set to surpass its 33TWh by 2020 RET ahead of schedule. However, this target was reduced from 41TWh in 2015.

Plans to replace the RET with a clean energy target, which required energy retailers to ensure the supply of dispatchable energy and lower emissions, were scrapped in November 2017.

State governments, however, have been more successful in promoting wind power and enabling renewable investment, Make said.

South Australia, for example, leads the country with 1.65GW installed and met its own 50% renewable energy target in 2017 — eight years ahead of schedule.

Australia has just over 4.5GW installed, according to Windpower Intelligence.

Japan

Make pointed to Japan’s tough environmental impact assessment procedures, concerns about grid accessibility, and lack of mechanism for consumers to sign direct power purchase agreements with wind power producers, as potential obstacles to growth.