Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Sorry for the length, but I wanted to write summaries since I know not everyone will listen to these (it’s a little under 5.5 hours total).

West

• AL: HOU - Rany predicts 58 wins, Joe 52. Joe points out that previously historically horrible teams were worse defensively. SEA - Rany predicts 77 wins. Joe thinks the stadium dimension changes will hurt more than help; Rany is unsure, thinking that perhaps it will help their young hitters develop. LAA - Both like the re-introduction of Bourjos. They think Pujols will maintain his 2012 level, and that the bullpen will be good. Rany predicts 92-93 wins; Joe fewer. OAK - Rany is skeptical of Nakajima. They observe that it’s been difficult to project Japanese players. Both think the team will generally regress. Joe: “Jed Lowrie is not a shortstop”; “Tom Milone is Italian for Jeff Ballard.” TEX - Joe thinks they “lost the offseason”, but still likes their remaining talent a lot. Rany wonders whether the value of Profar and Olt will be wasted.

Rany picks LAA to win the division, Joe TEX.

• NL: COL - They hate the pitching. Joe thinks the organization has placed character above ability, e.g. Cuddyer. They’re skeptical of Weiss’ inexperience. Joe says he (Joe) could add five wins with managerial decisions. Rany predicts 72 wins, Joe 68. ARI - Both hate the team’s offseason moves. Joe calls Cliff Pennington “Chad.” They like the rotation. They discuss the unpredictability of “chemistry.” LAD - They question many of the veterans and agree that the payroll is being spent inefficiently, but hey, it’s a really big payroll. SF - Rany thinks they can win 90-92. Joe thinks they have the “highest floor” in the division. SD - Rany thinks they’re not much better than the Rockies. Joe likes Black’s managing, and the mid-20s average age; he loves the team’s upside. Rany thinks the rotation doesn’t cut it.

Rany picks ARI to win the division, Joe SD. Rany thinks it’s very close between ARI, LAD, SF. Joe thinks no team in the division will win 90.

• A weird discussion about a March Madness-esque single-game elimination tournament among MLB teams.
• AL: NYY - Joe is depressed about the Boesch signing. He predicts a 3rd place finish, and contemplates a rebuild. They have confidence in Cashman. They think it’d take a ‘12 Orioles unlikely scenario to contend. BAL - They think the team might be better than ‘12, but have a worse record. Rany says 79-83 wins. BOS - Joe isn’t sure Bradley Jr. is ready, and doesn’t like Middlebrooks (comparing him to Shea Hillenbrand). Joe doesn’t think Gomes and Victorino can hit righties, and doesn’t buy that platoon splits have to be hugely regressed. He does like Lester. Rany: The front office “has earned my derision.” Joe says 82 wins, Rany 76-80. TB - They like Hellickson and the pitching, not so much the offense. Joe thinks Myers needs to be in the lineup; Rany suggests locking him up long-term now. They think claims about runs saved by pitch-framing are exaggerated, and that the Jaso/Lueke trade was a disaster. Joe: “Roberto Petagine is the Anne Hathaway of Quad-A hitters.” TOR - They love the offense and rotation. Joe likes Gibbons as a manager.

Rany: TOR, TB, NYY, BAL, BOS Joe: TOR, TB, NYY, BOS, BAL
• NL: MIA - Joe: “The natural byproduct of the last three or four CBAs.” Rany: An “atrocity.” Rany makes Costanza-esque proposals where KC acquires Stanton. NYM - Joe: Their financial shenanigans are “criminal.” The team stinks. PHI - Amaro, Zduriencik and Colletti are nominated as potential worst GMs in MLB. Joe loves the Revere acquisition, but they hate their other moves. Will the team “sell”? WAS - They see no weaknesses; Joe says 102-105 wins, Rany 98-100. No lefty RP shouldn’t be a problem. They love Davey Johnson (and compare this team to the ‘86 Mets), as well as the Span acquisition. Joe likes Harper for MVP. Rany predicts 300 PA for Rendon. ATL - They love the OF, of course. They are huge Simmons fans; Joe says best IF arm since Shawon Dunston. Joe gets into his usual thing about how horrible it’d be if an 88-win team beat a 97-win team in a play-in game.

• Spring training: They both think it’s too long.
• Vernon Wells: Rany thinks the Yankees are panicking. Joe defends the move for the Yanks, pointing out that Wells has a salary that can be structured not to affect the 2014 salary cap, and that, once everyone is healthy, is well-suited to be a platoon outfielder who is amenable to being on the bench. Joe screams like a crazy person about Russell Martin being irrelevant to the issue because Martin had left before the Yankees’ injuries hit. Joe thinks re-signing Ichiro was a bigger mistake than either acquiring Wells or not re-signing Martin.
• NL: CHC - Rany thinks they’re improving slowly; Joe projects them to be just a bit below .500. Rany compares Starlin to Garry Templeton; Joe suggests Nomar Garciaparra. Rany thinks Samardzija is “for real”, Joe doesn’t. PIT - Rany likes the upside of their young talent and has them at about 78 wins. Joe likes them in a couple of years, but thinks they’re currently worst in the division. MIL - Both are down on them, citing the right-handed tilt of the lineup, and baffled by Alex Gonzalez at 1B. Joe at least likes their hitting and OF defense. STL - Joe questions Matheny’s managing; middle infield; starting pitching depth. Rany likes their organizational talent, but not necessarily this year’s squad. CIN - Both agree that the organization should have committed to Chapman as a starter before spring training. They dislike Choo’s defense in CF, like the bullpen and offense.

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Enjoyed them, but I really wish these guys would edit their show a bit tighter. They go off on multiple long tangents every episode. In the NL East preview they spent 10-15 minutes talking about a "possible" trade that could be made between the Royals and Marlins for Stanton- two years from now. Episodes are two hours when 60 or 90 minutes (at the most) would be much better listening.

call me crazy, but i really do think ichiro will hit ~.300 with ~15 hr this year, and ~25 steals. the yanks clearly are anticipating wells will rebound significantly. i honestly think the yanks will be in second behind the blue jays. i don't really see analysts giving good justifications for why they think tb will be contending. they got a developmental bat that will be a difference-maker next year for a top-level 2/3 starter which i think makes the bigger difference on the team this year. as far as the orioles are concerned, is a deviation from the pythagorean luck or coaching? yes, they could regress to the mean and even finish last, but maybe we are just underestimating showalter's ability to develop players and make those few key decisions.

i like that people are predicting kc for 2nd in the central, i agree with that and have been predicting it (if they got a starter) since november. hopefully they will stroke my ego and do it after they made the gutsy move and got shields.

i'm kinda hoping that the three horrible teams they talked about (hou, min, mia) are as bad as advertised. for one, it would be annoying if their futility story was just a marketing exaggeration. but more, i think it will be interesting, in its own way, to see a team on pace for record losses. i bet one of them will be late into the season, but will get some wins at the end from other teams packing it in. probably houston or miami, minnesota will probably be slightly better as long as mauer's in there, and miami might well trade somebody. houston has no hitting and is in a tough division, but as they said, their defense is better than most historically bad teams. they'll probably get some late wins after seattle is out of the race, like miami might against the mets if they haven't shipped stanton. of course, if mauer or stanton goes down we might be in for some history.

With the 'Stros gone, I question any analysis that doesn't have the Cubs in last... I like plenty of what Thed has done, too -- but the pitching is horrifically thin -- and unless both Rizzo and Castro takes steps forward, the offense should count itself extremely lucky to be average.

I would not be at all shocked in the Cubs lose 100 games again, and I would be significantly shocked if they top 70-75 wins.

I liked the exchange where Rany was astounded that Joe was picking the Royals to be in second place, and then Joe was astounded that Rany was picking the Royals to be a good team. I guess it is likely that second place in the AL Central will not go to a good team.

The problem with the show is indeed the lack of an editor (or a hard-and-fast agenda that someone puts together before each episode). Joe is capable of spending an hour saying the same thing over and over (which I think he literally did, in two consecutive episodes, during the Trout vs. Cabrera saga). Maybe he is practicing to take over from Colin Cowherd.

So if there are several interesting things to talk about, the show is interesting. If there aren't, the show isn't interesting. Not great for something that only airs once a week. There should always be at least an hour's worth of interesting material per week.

Enjoyed them, but I really wish these guys would edit their show a bit tighter. They go off on multiple long tangents every episode.

That's my biggest pet peeve about podcasts. You're not as funny as you think you are. Stay on topic. There is this movie podcast - I forget the name, but the guys are obviously knowledgeable about movies and love movies, but its unlistenable because every five minutes they try to crack a joke or go off on a stupid tangent for a few minutes.

That's what drives me nuts about the Slate Podcasts in front of live audiences - they try to be funny for the crowd and get off subject all the time.

Anyway, they're both fairly optimistic about the Royals. Will have to listen tonight.

There is this movie podcast - I forget the name, but the guys are obviously knowledgeable about movies and love movies, but its unlistenable because every five minutes they try to crack a joke or go off on a stupid tangent for a few minutes.

I'm a podcast addict, and now that I'm back in marathon training I need more. I already have a bunch of news, comedy, economics podcasts, but I need a couple of baseball ones. I'm sure they're out there. Recs? Anything mariners or Red Sox related appreciated in particular

There is this movie podcast - I forget the name, but the guys are obviously knowledgeable about movies and love movies, but its unlistenable because every five minutes they try to crack a joke or go off on a stupid tangent for a few minutes.

Battleship Pretension?

That's what Rany and Joe remind me of. It's just two guys, there's no sound effects or music cues or evidence of editing, and they go on for somewhere between 80 and 110 minutes every time. They are very insightful though.

Filmspotting is, if anything, overly edited. They should spend MORE time talking about the movie that is ostensibly the subject of the episode, but they cram in too many of their regular little segments that are usually very similar from week to week.

I enjoy ESPN's Fantasy Baseball podcast. It's a little heavy on 'humor' (especially when Matthew Berry is the lead and not Nate Ravitz), but the info is usually pretty strong. Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockroft are hosting the Friday shows this year. I've never liked Karabell, but whatever, it's only 30 minutes. I also hear very good things about Keith Law's new podcast, but haven't actually heard the show.

NPR's Wait Wait Don't Tell Me is available each week in podcast form, on Sundays. That's another fave.

I podcast Kornheiser's radio show out of DC, but acknowledge that's not for everyone.

If you want to get into podcasts I suggest an app like Stitcher (free) that will let you pick a show, then start giving you suggestions for other shows similar to it that you might like.

econtalk is fascinating stuff at times. really encourage folks to check it out. backstory is just fun.

and to the twerps, yes twerps you got it right, who want to list 1303 reasons why freakanomics is dumb or facile or flawed or whatever you are just being difficult. at minimum the listener gets challenged to find the flaws in the thinking. and guess what, you think. you use that thing 3 feet above your 8ss.

folks who mock discussions that can be both fun and provoke a little thought always hack me off if you can't tell. if you don't want to think go live in st louis

Predicting things will go right (meaning winning games) for a team that lost 101 games last year, that isn't really assembled to win games this year, has injuries, looking to trade chits now for the future, and has sizable question all over the starting roster seems a little foolhardy to me.

Right now the Cubs have absolutely no back up for the middle infield, Valbuena as the probable starter at third with Stewart as the projected back up (though he won't be available to start the season), Clevenger the possible back up at first, Castillo as the starting catcher, DeJesus as the center fielder, Schierholtz as the starting right fielder, Garza not healthy, a bunch of question marks at the back end of the rotation, and the bullpen is largely the same pen they had last year plus Fujikawa. If they get to 78 wins it will be a miracle.

fangraphs would be better if it were not for castulli. i gather he has a cult following of some kind but you want a guy in love with his own voice holy sh8t he buries the needle. i can only hang in for the discussions with david because castulli knows enough to shut up and let the smarter guy speak

i have made my opinions known of the joe element of rany and joe so won't bore the reader

Jonah keri used to do good podcasts. he stopped some time ago though i hear he pops up every so often on grantland.

Do you have any recommendations for good podcasts regardless of topic/genre?

Without question, the best comedy/news podcast out there is "The Bugle", which is John Oliver (the English guy from The Daily Show) and his old comedy partner, Andy Zimmerman. It actually does a better job than Oliver's TV show of taking an oppositional approach to the news and making it hilarious.

I listen to "Harmontown", which is a weird improv comedy show starring the writer of "Community" & "The Sarah Silverman Program" and his best friend, a veteran improv comic. It's better than it sounds. Very funny, and the star is a weird genius.

I also listen to Dan Carlin's "Hardcore History", which is a very in-depth history show. He did a 5-episode, 10-hour series on the Mongol Kahns; he also did a 7-episode, 18-hour one on the fall of the Roman Republic.

"Backstory with the American History Guys" recontextualizes current events with three history profs from Virginia who give you the background. Recently they've done histories of climate control (ie, cloud seeding in the 19th century, etc), marriage (arranged marriage in revolutionary America, gender roles in 1970s marriages, etc), and a history of guns in America.

There are probably a dozen more than that, but those are the ones I'd recommend to people who may not share the same interests in me.

and to the twerps, yes twerps you got it right, who want to list 1303 reasons why freakanomics is dumb or facile or flawed or whatever you are just being difficult.

Wow, thank you all for the recommendations. I've downloaded several episodes already and bookmarked this page for future reference. I just started listening to the latest episode of Gleeman and the Geek, and I enjoy it so far. Econtalk, Planet Money, Motley Fool, and Freakonomics seem to be consensus picks.

We've had a few podcast threads of late. Most of the ones I listen to are comedic...

Always listen to:
Superego, WTF, Comedy Bang Bang, The Memory Palace, This American Life, Freakonomics, Hang Up And Listen, The Bugle, Judge John Hodgman, The Smartest Man In The World, The Pod F. Tompkast, Baseball America, The Moth, The Dana Gould Hour, Best Show Gems, The Basketball Jones, Welcome To Night Vale, Improv4Humans

I also listen to Dan Carlin's "Hardcore History", which is a very in-depth history show. He did a 5-episode, 10-hour series on the Mongol Kahns; he also did a 7-episode, 18-hour one on the fall of the Roman Republic.

Seconded.

For layman-oriented history stuff, I also recommend Mike Duncan's "The History of Rome." He did about 160 20-or-so-minute episodes until giving it up last year when he reached right about 476 A.D.

It's less horrifically thin that it was (although I didn't realize Garza was having issues). Adding Jackson, Baker, Feldman and Villanueva is a lot of depth and Travis Wood is not scary. A lot is riding on SPJ repeating. At least on paper this is a major league staff which is better than last year. 3B remains a complete suckhole and depth is not good. But a long-term injury to Rizzo presumably sees Hairston, Schierholtz and Jackson into "full-time" roles rather than Clevenger. A middle infield injury would be pretty disastrous.

I don't expect them to lose 100 this year, I'll peg them at 70 wins although I risk that falling apart after the trade deadline dump.

I've tried to listen to podcasts at work, but I get too many phone calls or office popins. Jonah Keri's one was good, but, IIRC, he had a journalism background and wasn't a hobbyist like so many others in the sabersphere.

It's less horrifically thin that it was (although I didn't realize Garza was having issues). Adding Jackson, Baker, Feldman and Villanueva is a lot of depth and Travis Wood is not scary.

Last year's Cubs had 50 combined starts from the following pitchers: Chris Volstad, Justin Germano, Chris Rusin, Casey Coleman, Brooks Raley, and Jason Berken. They went 13-37 in those games. Throw in 1-3 in Randy Wells's starts and that's a third of the team's games with a winning percentage barely north of .250.

Feldman and Villanueva may not be much, but they're quite a bit better than those guys, and they're probably starters 6 and 7 on a healthy Cubs staff (not counting Vizcaino). That's the main reason I think this year's team will be a good bit better than last year's, at least before the likely firesale you mention.

Of course they are, but... so? As the saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures. Panicking is a perfectly legitimate response to having no LF, RF, 1B, C. Wells is useful every two or three years and it's only money. It wouldn't be shocking for him to hit to a 120 OPS+, and if he doesn't, then can use him as Joe suggests.

Joe screams like a crazy person about Russell Martin being irrelevant to the issue because Martin had left before the Yankees’ injuries hit.

I agree, and in fact made this same point myself last week.

Joe thinks re-signing Ichiro was a bigger mistake than either acquiring Wells or not re-signing Martin.

call me crazy, but i really do think ichiro will hit ~.300 with ~15 hr this year, and ~25 steals.

To do that he'd basically have to repeat his best 250 PAs of the last 1400. And to do _that_, his last 250 PAs (of which only his last 150 or so were any good) must represent his true ability level as rebounded. Or Yankee Stadium's short RF must have turned a singles hitting slap hitter into a ~15 HR hitter. I find either possibility unlikely.