Armageddon Again

Indiana was defeated. It was annoying, as per usual. The method was different this time.

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It's here, again. Football Armageddon. The last time I called a game Football Armageddon it was 12 years ago, when Michigan and Ohio State were both undefeated. Michigan ripped off a slick touchdown drive to start things off, and in the Ohio State student section I thought to myself "we're a third of the way home."

This was incorrect. Michigan's defense played three inside linebackers the whole game against Troy Smith, gave up 500 yards and 42 points, and blew an opportunity to get the ball back when Shawn Crable hit Smith in the helmet on a scramble. The 2006 defense featured Alan Branch, Lamarr Woodley, Leon Hall, David Harris, four guys with decade-long NFL careers. They whooped up on everyone, but within were the seeds of the past decade of Michigan football. Michigan had one cornerback: Hall. Morgan Trent couldn't change direction with a sail and a headwind, and when the starters got pulled against Ball State two weeks prior the Cardinals mounted a comeback that ended in Michigan's redzone down only 8.

The two corners who came in against Ball State were Chris Richards, the defensive coordinator's godson, and Johnny Sears, a kid from Fresno who'd never played a varsity game when Michigan offered him. They saw him at practice. (Practice! We're talking about practice!) Eight months later Michigan would field Sears as a starter in The Horror, in which a cut-rate Troy Smith exploited the same tactical naivete Smith had to hand Michigan the worst upset of all time.

Football Armageddon really was Armageddon for Michigan, not because of anything Ohio State did to them in that one game but because they'd fallen behind the curve out of their own arrogance. Michigan's recruiting was increasingly lazy, dependent on guys who bothered to come to camp and random, uninformed guesses about players based on not enough scouting. They'd get about half a class of well-regarded and then pluck random dudes out of the ether for the rest. They'd singularly failed to adapt to the prevalence of the spread across college football, kicking off the Ohio State dominance that extends to the modern day.

When Lloyd Carr retired he asked the athletic director to interview the two sturdiest branches on his coaching tree: his coordinators. One, Ron English, had never been a head coach and was the architect of the Horror. The other, Mike DeBord, was 12-34 at Central Michigan before quitting because he wasn't a head coach. These were the options to keep it in the family.

2006 Michigan was Indiana Jones on a rope bridge. Ohio State was the guy with the machete leering from the safety of land, but it didn't create the situation.

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Incredibly, improbably, amazingly: Ohio State looks like it might be on a bridge of its own devising. Michigan's culture caught up to them in a slow-motion avalanche that took half a decade. OSU's got blown up in a week by Brett McMurphy and Urban Meyer's callous disregard for anything but winning.

Since Zach Smith was exposed, Ohio State's house has morphed from bricks to cards. Every week (except Michigan State) brings a new sordid depth to their defensive issues. With JT Barrett off to pick up YAC in the Estonian league, the offense frequently fails to convert buckets of yards into points. There was a fourth and goal wide receiver screen against Purdue. Not incidentally, a 5-6 Purdue team that's going into the Bucket game looking for a bowl berth boatraced OSU 49-20.

The nature of the series with Michigan has already changed in the post-Durkin landscape. Michigan lost by a literal inch the last time they were in Columbus despite Wilton Speight fumbling on the goal line and throwing two miserable interceptions. Last's game was 21 Michigan players outplaying the opposition and the third-string quarterback tossing up a 14.3 QBR. This isn't Michigan scrapping and clawing because "throw the records out" and we'll go for two at the end of the game because we know what's what. It's Michigan getting hit by a red shell rounding the last corner.

They're there. They're good enough. They're legitimately elite by any metric you want to poke. Now they just have to do the damn thing. The consequences of failure do not bear thinking about. It's armageddon, again. Ohio State is a rope over an abyss. Sharpen your knives.

AWARDS

[Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Devin Bush. Michigan lined him up next to Gary for a blitz and that seemed unfair and also please continue doing that forever. Twelve tackles, one of them to destroy a fake punt, and one critical fourth down PBU. Run issues were mostly things he was trying to mitigate and not things that could be plausibly put on him. Update: still good.

#2 Shea Patterson. Another game of almost ten yards an attempt. There were some hiccups, but the interception was an open guy on an RPO and it sailed because he got clobbered. The Gentry throw in the endzone… not so much. But the one after escaping the pocket, yeah buddy. Also chipped in 68 yards rushing. Which is a lot of yards.

Honorable mention: Zach Gentry had two big receptions and got interfered with twice… but maybe probably should have grabbed that ball in the endzone. Higdon had a workmanlike performance with some key broken tackles on short stuff.

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Nick Eubanks scores his first touchdown at Michigan. An important moment in the game, sure. But his reaction afterward was a prayer to his late mom.

Honorable mention: Post-game news about Edwards and Winovich is positive. Moody hits a field goal X6. Rashan Gary stops Indiana's last drive before it starts.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Berkeley Edwards suffers the scariest injury in Michigan Stadium in living memory after a cheap targeting hit on a kickoff return. Edwards is probably going to be fine, per Braylon, and he's tweeting, so… that's a mixed blessing. But mostly good!

Honorable mention: Chase Winovich is knocked out after a different cheap shot and is maybe unavailable for next week. The end of half debacle.

Comments

Upon Further Review 2018: Defense vs Rutgers

SPONSOR NOTE: Reminder that Matt is hanging out at the Charity Tailgate at 327 East Hoover (if you were at the preseason MGoEvents this year and last it's the same place). It's right next to the train tracks on Hoover. The band goes right by it on their way to the stadium, which is cool. Say hi.

FORMATION NOTES: A couple of hints at packages Michigan has either kept under wraps or can't quite get right. There was a snap that looked like a 3-4 with Winovich and Uche as the OLBs and a three man front. There was a bit of a run-out for the 3-3-5 Brown clearly wants to have available as a changeup but can't get working against most opponents because Michigan doesn't really have the personnel for it.

But mostly just the same stuff, with maybe more of a zone approach…

two-high == usually zone for M

…since Rutgers was attacking the edges constantly. A cover two corner is a good antidote for that.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Just 54 snaps, and 15 of them were in garbage time. During the brief time the D had the starters on the field it was Gary, Winovich, Kemp, and Mone. Marshall rotated through for a dozen or so snaps. Solomon was left home with an illness. Paye didn't get much time; he was limited to the rush package mostly and left with a minor injury in the third Q.

Mostly the usual at LB, with Bush and Hudson near omnipresent as Ross and Gil rotated. Jordan Anthony got in for the last drive. Uche was limited to ~10 snaps; Furbush and Glasgow got about that many, mostly late.

In secondary, Hawkins replaced Metellus. Hill was knocked out relatively early, leaving Watson and Long to get the lion's share of CB snaps. Ambry Thomas got 20 or so snaps; J'Marick Woods and Vincent Gray got in late.

FWIW, the final drive saw all manner of guys get on the field. M traveled a selection of deep bench walk-ons, because Rutgers.

Comments

Upon Further Review 2018: Defense vs Penn State

SPONSOR NOTE: Reminder that Matt is hanging out at the Charity Tailgate at 327 East Hoover (if you were at the preseason MGoEvents this year and last it's the same place). It's right next to the train tracks on Hoover. The band goes right by it on their way to the stadium, which is cool. Say hi.

FORMATION NOTES: Michigan stuck to the four man front for almost the whole game, with just a few attempts to play a 3-3-5. The Rush package remains unchanged after Gary's return. Michigan did have some exotics, one a 3-1-7(!) alignment with two vipers and Bush out there on third and ten. This was the Glasgow sack.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Massive rotation across the front with even Chase Winovich bowing out on occasion. Gary's return and his absence from the rush package amped up a rotation that is ten guys deep now: Gary, Winovich, Mone, Kemp, Paye, Marshall, Solomon, Dwumfour, Uche and Hutchinson (sort of). As a result everyone save Winovich saw maybe half of Michigan's snaps. Also Donovan Jeter got in late.

LB was the standard: Bush and Hudson all the time, Ross and Gil splitting WLB snaps with Ross having an edge, and assorted cameos from Glasgow and Furbush. Ditto the secondary. Woods was the only backup S to get in, interestingly.

Comments

Upon Further Review 2018: Defense vs MSU

SPONSOR NOTE: Reminder that Matt is hanging out at the Charity Tailgate at 327 East Hoover (if you were at the preseason MGoEvents this year and last it's the same place). It's right next to the train tracks on Hoover. The band goes right by it on their way to the stadium, which is cool. Say hi.

FORMATION NOTES: Just one 3-3-5 snap, which didn't go so hot. Michigan is continuing with their rush package with Uche/Dwumfour/Paye/Winovich across the front, and semi-frequently went with a dime behind that. I have been filing Uche as a linebacker but I'm on the verge of calling him a DE.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Paye and Winovich nearly omnipresent with Hutchinson picking up a few late snaps. DT snaps got split about equally between all five contributors (Solomon, Marshall, Kemp, Mone, and Dwumfour).

Bush and Hudson omnipresent, as per usual. Ross and Gil split WLB snaps. Uche got about 20 snaps as a rush end; cameos from Furbush and Glasgow.

Secondary the usual. Long and Hill got more snaps than Watson but it was close to even. Thomas got in at the end.

Comments

Upon Further Review 2018: Defense vs Maryland

SPONSOR NOTE: Reminder that Matt is hanging out at the Charity Tailgate at 327 East Hoover (if you were at the preseason MGoEvents this year and last it's the same place). It's right next to the train tracks on Hoover. The band goes right by it on their way to the stadium, which is cool, it supports charity, there's pizza and barbecue and beer, and the GameDay crew might stop by. Say hi.

FORMATION NOTES: Most notable development was the near-elimination of 3-3-5 snaps: just six, all of them on passing downs. Maryland ran a bunch of stuff from under center to facilitate their jet sweep game, and brought out a lot of pistol diamond formations when Piggy was in.

Nothing worked until real late.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: With Gary absent and Dwumfour exiting in the first half, the DT rotation was mostly Kemp, Mone, and Marshall. Jeter and Myers came in late. At DE, Winovich was his usual omnipresent self until the final two drives. Paye got the bulk of the Gary snaps with about 10 from Hutchinson and 10 more during the backups portion of the game.

At LB, Bush and Hudson nearly omnipresent. Gil and Ross back to splitting about 50/50, with the usual ten or so snaps from Uche and Furbush. Secondary the usual.

Comments

Michigan 42, Maryland 21

Deep in the fourth quarter, Michigan lined up from seven yards out in an offset I-form on first-and-goal. Fullback Ben Mason took his place as the deep back and Jared Wangler, the one-time linebacker, was aligned two yards behind Shea Patterson and offset to his left. Patterson took the snap, turned to his right, and faked a handoff to Mason while Wangler ran across the front, dipped inside a shuffling defensive end, and found himself all alone on the right side. Seeing Patterson rolled to his right while Wangler flattened his route and started running for the front corner of the end zone. Patterson hit him in front of the maize “N” in Michigan’s end zone scrawl, and a game that was marked by domination in all other box score metrics finally reflected that on the scoreboard.

Scoring out of a two-fullback set was extremely BIG TENNNN enough to justifiably grab the attention of Michigan twitter, but the catch was more than a novelty: it was a sign of what Michigan’s offense can be. The athleticism of Michigan’s fullbacks allowed them to play two at once without tipping run or pass, the offensive line gave the backs and quarterback time and space, Karan Higdon made smart cuts that helped keep the offense on schedule, the receivers brought in almost everything thrown their way, and the tight ends were Patterson’s go-to chain-movers. The Wolverines scored on seven of their 10 drives, including their final six.

With the exception of a flubbed kickoff that Ty Johnson took 98 yards for a touchdown, Michigan shut Maryland down, full stop. Maryland’s run game was a test for Michigan, particularly with the perfectly timed handoffs off of jet action that Maryland deployed; excising the 78 rushing yards Maryland racked up on a garbage-time drive down 28 points with four minutes left, the Terps rushed for 69 yards on 31 carries. 133 of their 220 total yards came in the fourth quarter, as did 101 of their 147 rushing yards. Maryland converted 38.5% of their third downs, which is only surprising because their average distance to go on third down was 9.3 yards and Brandon Watson's pick-six came on third down. The defensive standout today was the defense as a whole, though Tyree Kinnel, Devin Bush, Josh Ross, and Khaleke Hudson also get special mention for knowing when to fill and for holding down big gains; unsurprisingly, these four were Michigan’s leading tacklers.

Comments

Upon Further Review 2018: Defense vs Northwestern

SPONSOR NOTE: Reminder that Matt is hanging out at the Charity Tailgate at 327 East Hoover (if you were at the preseason MGoEvents this year and last it's the same place). It's right next to the train tracks on Hoover. The band goes right by it on their way to the stadium, which is cool. Say hi.

FORMATION NOTES: A couple of tweaks: Michigan pulled a linebacker to go with a true 4-1 dime setup on various passing downs. Paired with that was a shift in personnel on those snaps. Michigan's 4-man line on passing downs was Winovich-Dwumfour-Paye-Gary, with Uche replacing Gary after he went out.

Uche standing to bottom, Paye tucked inside

They did this a bit last week. Since this seems to be a Thing now I've designated it as "Rush" in the package column, with "Rush N(ickel)" indicating two linebackers behind it and "Rush D(ime)" indicating one.

Northwestern was almost all a standard 3-wide spread setup.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Winovich omnipresent. Gary got about two-thirds of the snaps, exiting late. Paye picked up most of that slack; since he also got in on those rush snaps he was out there maybe half the time. Dwumfour got more DT snaps than anyone else, which was up and down; Kemp, Mone, and Marshall split the rest. For whatever reason Aidan Hutchinson barely got in. I think he had one snap?

At LB, Bush omnipresent. Glasgow and Hudson omnipresent in their respective halves. Ross again got more snaps than Gil but it was closer than last week—and probably closer than it should be at this point. Furbush and Uche got maybe a dozen snaps each, functioning more as pass-rush DEs than linebackers.

Secondary was the usual, with injuries knocking the starting safeties out here and there. Brad Hawkins got a fair amount of time. I think Woods might have got a snap or two.

I Was Just A Balloon But They Stabbed Me All The Same

On the one hand you look at the spread and things like "opponent loses to Akron" and you assume that Michigan will have a comfortable victory. On the other, you are playing the Northwestern Wildcats, so things are gonna get weird. Dave brought up the recent history of this series on the podcast, and other than a 38-0 blitzing in 2015 it is Hall of Fame weird:

2014: M00N

2013: The Dileo Power Slide field goal gets Michigan to overtime, and is possibly the only last-second clock-running scramble FG to ever go through the uprights.

2012: Michigan gets to overtime thanks to a Northwestern safety tipping the ball to Roy Roundtree with just seconds remaining.

2011: Fairly normal.

2008: The Fandom Endurance III game is played in conditions that are less sleet and more sideways ice knives.

That's the last decade of Michigan playing Northwestern. It is a nonstop barrage of Pat Fitzgerald pumping his fist until his head expands into a Thanksgiving Day balloon. Michigan scales the balloon to let the air out, sometimes gradually and sometimes all at once. In the post-game presser Fitzgerald's head keeps flopping to one side; he must testily re-seat it. His veins are inverted. He is not so much a hollow shell of a man but the very inverse of a human being, a creature of deflation. Nobody is to walk over to Pat Fitzgerald. Your space-time wavelength may intersect with his and cancel it out, leaving nothing but a ghostly jaw where once two people—one person and one deflation—were.

Nothing can cancel out Pat Fitzgerald's jaw.

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I guess this season is all about mental calibration. Some way through the third quarter the Black Pit of Negative Expectations gave way to a feeling that stretches all the way back to Lloyd Carr: the Gray Pit of We're Probably Going To Win This Game Despite Starting Horribly Now Could We Please Hurry Up And Actually Do That. (Watch out for the GPoWPGTWTGDSHNCWPHUAADT t-shirt coming to a store near you.) This is a better feeling than the Very Black Pit of Oh God We're Going To Blow Another 18 Point Lead Aren't We.

Michigan did win the game, eventually. By the standards of Michigan-Northwestern it wasn't even that weird. Michigan outgained Northwestern ~4 to 1 after the initial blitzing and was only stopped by a boggling penalty and some boggling failures to use Ol' Murderface when short yardage loomed. Michigan ran into the line on first down and found itself in second and long; they converted that anyway. Nothing could be more traditional. Except also running into the line on second down, which Michigan did not do.

There were no last-second rescues by providence, no inexplicably organized portions of a Brady Hoke team pulling Michigan's ass out of the fire, no two-point conversions to finish our suffering either way. The only thing in question was whether Michigan was going to catch up before the clock ran out. Once they did things were more or less over; they could have played a second game immediately following the second and Northwestern would still be stuck on 17.

Squint and things look pretty good. Maybe that 20 looks like a 28. Michigan almost doubled up the opponent in total yardage (376 to 202) while blasting punts 50+ yards. You don't lose games like that unless you turn the ball over. I know Michigan almost did. We're squinting here.

Open your eyes back up and it's a three-point win over a team with previous ignominious demises at the hands of Duke and Akron. Your personal level of negative expectation will determine how much squinting you're going to do. I am at war with myself. On Monday two days removed I can look at the box score and Pat Fitzgerald's giant throbbing head and be relatively sanguine. Saturday, not so much. Future Saturdays will tend to slip into the black pit until such time as that decision is forcibly repudiated. At this point I don't think anyone has much control over it.

At least Michigan can inflict it, as well. When the game was ended, his quarterback in yet another heap of Michigan defenders surrounded by apologetic linemen, Fitzgerald spiked his headset into the ground and trundled across the field. Instead of a hand to shake he found a wall of Michigan players incidentally in his way. There was no way through. Eventually he veered to one side, disgusted, leaking helium from pin-pricks across his body. By the time he got to the locker room he was barely there at all.

HIGHLIGHTS

AWARDS

Known Friends And Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Patrick Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Chase Winovich. Everywhere. His sack was a gift; his other two TFLs were +3s where he scythed through guys trying to block him and solo TFL'd in the backfield. Now the national leader in TFLs. Also living up to meme potential in pre-game.

#2(T) Mike Dwumfour, Kwity Paye, Josh Uche. Michigan's fresh-faced crew of sackists thrived in the absence of Gary and Aidan Hutchinson. Dwumfour forced more of the play than his teammates, creating both of Paye's sacks and getting one of his own, but also got blown out a couple times against the run. Uche ended he game with a textbook dip around the corner that looked like the offseason hype sounded. I like 'em both, and the other one too. One point each because the points are made up and don't matter.

#3 Will Hart. Last week: "Will Hart is gonna get on the board if Michigan ever punts six times in a game." This week: Michigan punts six times. Hart averages 51 yards a kick. Here you go, Will Hart.

Comments

Upon Further Review 2018: Defense vs Nebraska

SPONSOR NOTE: Reminder that Matt is hanging out at the Charity Tailgate at 327 East Hoover (if you were at the preseason MGoEvents this year and last it's the same place). Food trucks, beer, TVs, and a large bus you can honk the horn on. This is not a metaphor. It is a literal true thing. You'll be able to find it at Northwestern if you get lucky.

FORMATION NOTES: Nebraska was all gun and almost all single back, single TE. There were scattered snaps with another blocky/catchy type on the field. The only thing of note were frequent snaps with a covered slot receiver:

Uh. The idea is that the two outside guys are on the LOS and the #3 WR is not. This was a bad example but I forgot to grab a screenshot of it and the only clip is the failed RPO. Michigan did this on offense some as well. I've never been a fan since you're telling the defense a bunch of stuff about what you're doing and hoping they aren't prepared for your thing. This hijink has been around long enough that you should have a plan.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: A super quick hook for many defenders. Kemp, Mone, Gary, and Winovich all sat for the entire second half; Gary did come off a little sooner than the rest of the D but Winovich only got a few more snaps than he did—could just be a rotation thing. Second team line remained as you'd expect (Paye-Marshall-Dwumfour-Hutchinson); Rueben Jones, Donovan Jeter, and walk-on Carl Myers also got a fair number of snaps late.

LB level lasted much longer on the field for obscure reasons. Hudson's was less obscure, I guess. Bush and Ross played deeper into the game than any other non-Hudson starters. Ross is starting to assert himself as the starting WLB, with about a 2:1 snap ratio vs Gil. Furbush is still ahead of Uche, who got maybe a half-dozen snaps, and when Bush finally went out it was Jordan Anthony who replaced him.