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Football / Analysis / Time Of 1St Goal 11 20 Mins

Time of 1st goal 11-20 mins

How likely are matches to have +2.5 or +3.5 goals when the first goal is scored during this period and how does that vary across the major leagues.

Difference between when a goal is scored 11-20 mins compared to 0-10 mins.

In the majority of leagues +1.5 goal matches decrease by about 3% to around 90% depending on whether a goal is scored from 11-20 minutes compared to 0-10 minutes. In Ligue 1 the percentages are virtually the same but in the Bundesliga there have been a greater number of +1.5 goals (3% increase) when the goal is scored 11-20 mins.

It’s a similar situation with +2.5 except in Serie A where the difference is 72% in the first period compared to 64% in the second and in Eredivisie where it falls from 79% to 70% and the two leagues have a similar fall for matches with three or more goals – Serie A from 49% to 40% and Eredivisie 57% to 51%. The greatest discrepancy occurs in the Bundesliga where 58% of matches have resulted in three or more goals when a goal has been scored in the first period, but only 40% when that goal has been scored in minutes 11-20.

Goal scored 11-20 minutes.

Apart from the Premier League where there is a 1% difference, in all the other leagues there have been a greater percentage of +1.5 goals when the away team has scored first with the most marked difference being the 11% increase in Ligue 1. Unusually for the low scoring league, the 96% of away matches in Ligue 1 that have produced +1.5 goals when the away team has scored equals the Bundesliga as the highest of all the leagues.

Normality is restored in the +2.5 goal matches in which Ligue 1 returns 63% and, in common with most leagues, where there’s a 3-5% increase when the first goal is scored by the away team. In Serie A there is a marked difference when the away team has netted first – 71% +2.5 compared to 60% when it’s the home team. The most productive league when away teams score is La Liga with a 75% +2.5 matches, closely followed by the Bundesliga 74% and Eredivisie 73%.

Whether it’s the home or the away team scoring, Eredivisie comfortably has the highest
+3.5 goals percentage with an overall return of 51% and 54% when the visitors have scored. In the Premier League and Bundesliga, there have been more +3.5 goal matches when the hosts have scored, 43%-38% and 42%-38% respectively, which brings them close to the Ligue 1 return of 34% when the away team has scored.

Home Team Scores

Away team scores

All teams

League

Mins

+1.5

+2.5

+3.5

+1.5

+2.5

+3.5

+1.5

+2.5

+3.5

Prem

11-20

1.11

1.45

2.33

1.12

1.47

2.63

1.11

1.47

2.44

Serie A

11-20

1.16

1.67

2.7

1.14

1.41

2.27

1.15

1.56

2.5

La Liga

11-20

1.14

1.49

2.44

1.08

1.33

2.08

1.11

1.43

2.27

Bundesliga

11-20

1.06

1.39

2.38

1.04

1.35

2.63

1.05

1.37

2.5

Ligue 1

11-20

1.18

1.67

2.94

1.04

1.59

2.94

1.11

1.64

2.94

Eredivisie

11-20

1.1

1.47

2.56

1.06

1.37

1.85

1.09

1.43

1.96

Odds conversion based on % return

Key Stats

There is a notable difference for +2.5 goals in Serie A if the first goal is scored between 11-20 mins compared to 0-10. In the second period it is only 64% as opposed to 72% in the first and when the home team has been the first scorer it falls from 71% to 60%.

96% of Ligue 1 matches have finished +1.5 when the away team has scored between 11-20 mins and that matches the return from a far higher scoring league - the Bundesliga.

51% of Eredivisie matches have finished with +3.5 goals when the first goal period is 11-20 mins compared to an average of 41% for the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga.

With Form Lab PRO as well as analysing the effect of a goal from an all team perspective, you can also do so on an individual team basis and therefore what position you should take depending on how the match develops.