housing market in Sacramento

There are way bigger things happening in the world than real estate. So this post won’t have much text. For now let’s listen to what’s happening around us and find ways to heal as a country.

Zooming into weekly videos: I was doing five to seven Zoom sessions per week for months and I’m feeling burned out, so I’ll be scaling back after an incredible ride. I’m actually still available for digital speaking gigs, but they’re mostly for associations or for hire. However, I’ve shifted things to YouTube where I’ll be doing a weekly update. Would you join me there?

More buyers than sellers? For two weeks we’ve seen more pending contracts than new listings. I think this market has surprised lots of people who expect big price declines and dullness. Subscribe to my channel.

Highlight reel:

Sales volume is starting to increase again

Pendings have crested pre-pandemic levels

Listings were lackluster last week

Canceled listings are fairly normal again

Hold listings are getting closer to normal

Prices have been somewhat flat lately

I hope this was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you learning about life right now with all the protests going on? As far as real estate, I’d love to hear your take also.

High demand. Modest value increases. Price sensitive. Those are ways to describe the real estate market in 2016. Today let’s take a deep look into where the market went last year. This post is long on purpose. You can scan it quickly or pour a cup of coffee and spend some time here. If you aren’t in Sacramento, I hope you can still find some value. Do you see any parallels to your market? Any thoughts?

A Market Rush: Overall prices saw a dip these past few months as the regional median price declined 4-5% from summer. This isn’t anything unexpected because it happens virtually every year. Just as there is a season for fishing, fashion, or television, there is also a season for real estate values. Granted, 2016 did have a more aggressive feel in that multiple offers were commonplace, it took an average of 7 less days to sell a home compared to last year, and inventory was sparse at best. In fact, the year closed with the strongest months of sales volume in the past 5 years for November / December. It’s as if there was a rush on the market from September through November that ended up beefing up these year-end stats. Why did sales volume increase? Some say it’s the power of Trump or the anticipation of a new political era. Or it could be buyers were expecting an increase in interest rates and wanted to get in before a rate hike. Or maybe it’s the byproduct of a fall that wasn’t all that dull and a market with strong demand. Or maybe it’s a combination of all or none of the above. 🙂

When looking at the entire year, most price metrics increased 7-9% and sales volume was up a modest 2% overall for the year. Remember, just because price metrics increased by 7-9% does not mean actual values increased by that much (we can talk about that more below if you wish). My sense is prices at lower levels saw larger increases than the middle and upper end of the market, which means a more aggressive bottom tends to create larger increases on paper. I say this because it’s easy to see the median price at 10.5% higher and say, “Values went up by 10.5% last year,” but that just isn’t true for the bulk of the market. On a related note, last week I mentioned trends to watch in 2017, and if I had to add one more thing I would say there could easily be a problem this year with overpricing homes because of so much focus on the market being “hot” without looking at actual data.

A few year-in-review images:

Sacramento County:

The median price was $315,000 in December (6.5% above last December).

Housing inventory is about 10% lower than it was last December.

Sales volume was 7% lower this December compared to last December, but this year and last were higher than 2012, 2013, and 2014.

It took 3 days longer to sell a house last month compared to November.

One year ago in December it was taking 4 days longer to sell.

FHA sales volume is down 6% this year compared to 2015 (but 25% of all sales this year were FHA).

Cash sales are down 11% this year (they were 13% of all sales last month).

The average price per sq ft was $202 last month (about the same as November, but 7.5% higher than last year).

The average sales price at $343,670 is down about 4% from the height of summer (but is 6% higher than last year).

When looking at the entire year in Sacramento County it took 33 days on average to sell a home this year.

A few images to show the bottom and top of the market:

Some of my favorite images this month:

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

The median price was $350,000 in December (7% above last December).

It took 3 days longer to sell compared to the previous month (but 4 less days compared to December 2015).

Sales volume was about 1% lower this December compared to last year.

FHA sales volume is down 6% this year compared to last year.

Cash sales are down 8% this year compared to last year.

Cash sales were 14.4% of all sales last month.

The average price per sq ft was $208 last month. That’s down about 1% from the height of summer and 8% higher than last year.

FHA sales were 22% of all sales in the region last month.

The average sales price was $387,915 in December. It’s down about 5% from the height of summer but 8% higher than last year.

When looking at the entire year in the region it took 37 days on average to sell a home this year.

Some of my favorite images this month:

PLACER COUNTY:

The median price was $423,925 in December (7% above last December).

It took 2 less days to sell compared to the previous month (but 9 less days compared to December 2015).

Sales volume was about 1% lower this December compared to last year.

FHA sales volume is down 11% this year compared to last year (FHA sales were 18% of all sales in Placer County last month).

Cash sales are down a mere 1% this year compared to last year.

Cash sales were 16% of all sales last month.

The average price per sq ft was $216 last month, which is about as high as it’s been all year (about 8% higher than last year).

REOs were 1.5% and short sales were 1.8% of all sales in Placer County.

The average sales price was $472,130 in December. It’s down about 2% from the height of summer but about 9.5% higher than last year.

When looking at the entire year in Placer County it took 42 days on average to sell a home this year.

Have you ever met someone who looked really good on the outside, but the inside was a different story? That’s sort of like the housing market right now. Sales stats look super attractive, but if we really consider listings and other metrics we begin to see a different story. The market is slowing. Since it’s not always easy to explain that, here are a few analogies to help describe how important it is to look beyond just sales to gauge the temperature of the market. Then for those interested, let’s take a deep look at Sacramento trends. Any thoughts?

Examples to explain the market when it begins to slow:

First Date: A first date is all about putting your best foot forward, and that’s exactly why we usually need more than just one good date to make up our mind about someone (gotta be sure the person is not psycho). The same thing happens with real estate. Shining sales stats are like a first date because they lure us in and make us feel good. But we can’t really judge an entire market just by the sales. We need to consider listings and other metrics too.

Taking the Temperature in the Shade: If you take the temperature in the shade in the summer, you’re going to get a much different reading. The same thing happens in real estate where we can get the wrong temperature of the market if we only focus on sales instead of listings and other factors.

Judging by one Tweet: These days it’s easy to judge a person by one tweet instead of looking at their wider body of work (their life). The same thing happens in real estate when we only look at sales instead of listings and other stats. If our vision is too narrow, we might not see what the market is actually doing.

Pregnancy Test: I asked my author wife for an analogy and she said the market is like a pregnancy test (I wouldn’t ever have thought of that). You can technically be pregnant but an over-the-counter test won’t tell you that for a couple of weeks. Similarly, the market may have changed, but we may not see a price difference in sales for a month or two. But the change is definitely there when we look at listings and other metrics.

Pokemon: I’m just kidding. I won’t go there.

In a small way, I hope this was helpful. It’s very powerful to explain the market in different ways. Any other analogies to share?

—————– For those interested, here is my big market update —————–

Two ways to read the BIG POST:

Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.

Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 80+ graphs HERE:Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: On paper the market has been hot. We’ve seen all the normal stuff like price increases, slightly higher sales volume in 2016, and sparse housing inventory. If you didn’t know, the median price in Sacramento County is 105% higher than it was in 2012 and 16% lower than the peak in 2005. Distressed sales actually reached their lowest level since 2009 last quarter too. Cash sales volume has been hovering at a normal level while FHA sales volume has been declining. Overall the market is still really competitive, but it’s starting to turn. Keep in mind it’s common for real estate to lose some steam around mid-Summer. While the sales stats don’t show it yet, we see a slower market with the sales-to-list price ratio declining last month from the previous month, it took the same amount of average days to sell for the past two months in the region, and there has been a slightly more optimistic tone among real estate professionals about buyers getting into contract. While it felt utterly hopeless to get an offer accepted a few months ago in certain price ranges, it is starting to feel slightly more hopeful based on feedback from agents. Moreover, it seems like there has been growing price resistance lately (particularly at the higher end of the market). The market has been price sensitive all year as buyers are not fooled by absurdly high prices, but the sensitivity seems more heightened right now.

Sacramento County:

FHA volume has been about 24% of the market (it was nearly 27% of the market last year at the same time).

Cash volume is roughly the same as it was last year at the same time (around 16% of the market).

It took an average of 25 days to sell a home last month, which is 2 days less than the previous month (and 5 less days compared to last year).

REOs were only 2.9% of all sales last quarter (lowest level in years).

Sales volume is up very slightly Q2 2016 compared to Q2 2015.

There is only 1.38 months of housing supply in Sacramento County, which is 14% lower than it was last year at the same time.

The median price increased by 3.5% last month.

The median price is 13% higher than the same time last year.

The avg price per sq ft increased by 1.4% last month.

The avg price per sq ft is 9.7% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

It took the same amount of time to sell last month as it did the previous month (though 3 less days to sell this June compared to last June).

Sales volume is up slightly in 2016 compared to 2015.

Cash volume is about the same this year (16% of the market for Q2).

FHA volume is down 7.5% so far this year in the region.

The sales to list price ratio was 98% in the region last month.

There is 1.6 months of housing supply in the region right now, which is 13.5% lower than it was last year at the same time.

The median price increased 3.6% last month from the previous month.

The median price is 11% higher than the same time last year.

The avg price per sq ft increased by nearly 1% last month.

The avg price per sq ft is 8.9% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

PLACER COUNTY:

It took 4 less days to sell a house last month than the previous month (and 3 less days than last year at the same time).

Sales volume was up about 1% in June 2016 compared to last June and is down slightly for the year (about 2%).

FHA sales were 17% of all sales last month and cash sales were 13% of all sales last month.

There is 1.7 months of housing supply in Placer County right now.

Housing inventory is 8.5% lower than it was last year at the same time.

The median price increased 0.5% from the previous month and is up 7% from last year at the same time.

The average price per sq ft was $212 last month (was $200 last year at the same time).

The average price per sq ft is up 1.4% from the previous month and 6% from last year at the same time.

Bank owned sales were only 1% of all sales last month.

Short sales were 1.9% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

DOWNLOAD 80+ graphs HERE:Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Question: Any other market insight you’d like to add? I’d love to hear your take.

January is usually a slow real estate month. That’s nothing shocking. Yet it’s always interesting to see how the market begins to maybe get a sense for where it might go during the year. Today let’s take a look at 6 specific areas of the market in Sacramento, which will help us understand and explain the way things are moving.

Longer on purpose: If you’re new to subscribe (thank you), most of my posts are not this long. But twice a month I break down the trends so we can better see the market. Most of my other posts are general enough to apply anywhere in the United States. Is your market similar though? I’m curious.

Two ways to read this post:

Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.

Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

Email me if you want the graphs: If you would like all the graphs in this post (and 15 more), send me an email (make sure to write “I want the market graphs” in the header). You can use some of these in your newsletter, on your blog, and in other social spaces. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share.

1) The reality of the slower seasonal market right now:

It’s easy to freak out this time of year when values take a dip. It can feel the market is falling apart when we see price figures decline. Yet the market almost always softens at the end of the year and in the very beginning of the year. Knowing this can help you communicate well with clients and even plan for business. Remember that sales stats usually see a huge uptick in March, and this signifies the Spring market. Technically most of the sales in March actually get into contract in February though, which reminds us the Spring market hits its stride in February.

2) The median price softened by 3% last month:

The median sales price took a 3% dip in January to $256,000. It might sound extreme to see the market soften this much, but last year saw the same exact 3% dip as you can see in the image above.

3) It took an average of 60 days to sell a house in January:

On average it took 60 days to sell a house last month in Sacramento County. This is up from 48 days one year ago in January 2014, but down from about 90 days in January 2012.

It’s important to realize the market is not the same at every price range. In other words, some price ranges tend to take longer to sell than others. Generally speaking, the higher the price, the longer it takes to sell. Keep in mind there were only 9 sales at 750K-1M and two above 1M, so take those stats with a grain of salt.

4) Sales volume hit its lowest point in 8 years:

Sales volume was at its lowest point in 8 years last month. On one had that sounds alarming, but it’s really the story of the market these days. Last year saw slightly more sales at this time, so this year isn’t anything out of the ordinary for the current market. Volume is simply down right now as a whole, and we can look at this as the new norm for a while until the market can handle more inventory and more demand (when the economy improves).

It’s easy to get sensationalistic about having such a low volume of sales last month, but the graph above shows 15 years of January sales in Sacramento County. What do you notice? January almost always comes in last place for sales volume. In short, don’t freak out.

Lastly, remember to consider what usually happens in February. Sometimes February is right in sync with January, but other times there is slightly more volume. We’ll see what this year brings, but knowing how the market works makes you an asset to clients.

5) Housing inventory increased last month (technically):

Inventory increased last month to 2.61 months of housing supply. This is slightly higher than it was one year ago, and exponentially higher than 2013 when there was only one month’s worth of homes for sale. Remember that inventory is the relationship between the number of active listings as of the first of the month divided by sales from the previous month. This means if there are VERY few sales in a month, inventory will actually sound much higher than it actually is. In short, an inventory at 2.61 months sounds like it’s on the higher side, but being that sales volume was really low last month, this figure at 2.61 doesn’t really mean the same thing as it would in the summer when there are far more sales.

Housing inventory is never the same at every price range. This reminds us yet again there are many markets within a market. In this case, the higher the price, the more inventory there is.

6) Interest rates continue to decline:

Low interest rates are like fuel for the housing market since they create more demand by drawing buyers into the market. That is what happened in 2012 when rates went below 4% (for the first time ever), and it’s likely going to get some buyers off the fence right now.

Real estate is never just about supply and demand. There are so many “layers of the market” that are working to impact the direction of values. I hope this was helpful to create some context and conversation.

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Questions: What are you seeing out there? How does the market feel to you? Anything you’d add?

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