Russia Industry

Russia: Contraction in industrial production moderates in March

April 15, 2015

In March, industrial production contracted 0.6% over the same month last year. The print represented a mild improvement compared to the 1.6% contraction observed in February, which had marked the fastest contraction since February 2013. In addition, March’s result was better than the 1.9% decrease the markets had expected. According to the statistical institute, March’s more moderate contraction was the result of a slower decrease in manufacturing output, while electricity, gas and water supply as well as mining activity increased.

A month-on-month comparison confirms the mild improvement suggested by the annual data, as industrial production in March increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.7% decreased registered in February.

The trend continues to suggest that Russian industrial production is losing steam. Annual average growth in industrial output fell from 1.4% in February to 1.3% in March.

Prospects for industrial production in Russia are grim. FocusEconomics participants expect industrial production to contract 1.5% in 2015, which is unchanged, from last month’s forecast. FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to rebound in 2016 and increase 1.3%.

Author:Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist

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