Ryan Martin’s Indiana Ag Forecast for January 9, 2019

Drier weather moves in behind the front for today, tomorrow and Friday. We expect a mix of clouds and sun and colder temps, but generally, we still stay near normal on temperatures. That just will feel significantly colder than what we just got done with to start this week

Models still are all over the place for Saturday, but we are going to keep snow in our thoughts over most of the state. Right now, we see snow moving into far western Indiana and NW Indiana overnight Friday night, but for most of the state, the best snow potential comes Saturday. We are projecting a coating to an inch or two through the day over the northern half of the state, but action may ramp up over the southern half of the state. There is more moisture available down there. However, we do have some minor concern about a mix of rain and wet snow in far SW Indiana, where we won’t rule out even some freezing rain. The line between seeing a rain/freezing rain event and heavy wet snow is very fine. The one constant in our look at the past models, though, is the insistence that the heaviest precipitation will be in the SW part of the state. So, we could see rain or snow, and snow could be significant. However, freezing temps make it almost to the Ohio river, so snow is the most likely precipitation type at this time for 90% of the state.

Action ends on Sunday, but not as soon as we would like. Therefore, we are going to allow for a few flurries up north and some light snow off an on through the rest of the state, ending from NW to southeast through the day. This can bring an additional dusting to central and southern Indiana. So, 1-2 inches for the event up north, and potentially 2-5 inches down south…but there is room to tweak this forecast further, for our official forecast of the event that comes out tomorrow. Track again is the most important piece of the puzzle, and temperature a close second.

Dry weather returns for the first half of next week. High pressure dominates on Monday. As it moves off to the east, south winds should redevelop and moderate temperatures by midweek. This south flow will also come ahead of our next system, which arrives on Thursday. Temps moderate just enough to allow for a mixed bag of precipitation through the day. We look for a rain-sleet-snow mix across the state. The good news is that liquid equivalent precipitation will be limited to a few hundredths to .3” over 80% of the state. The bad news is we have no clue as to what type will fall where, except the southern third of the state should lean mostly toward rain. This event will come down to track, and where the cold air stays stubborn. Friday goes dry again to finish next week.

There is still some rain to start the extended 11-16 day forecast period, but right now it looks like it may be trending a bit farther south. We will dial coverage back to about 60% of the state right now, because there likely will be some areas that get missed, but we are not waving the all clear flag yet. The best moisture is in for Saturday the 19th. There still is the potential for that event to end as snow, as cold air blasts in behind. From there we remain cold with snow and flurries possible for the 22nd – 23rd – 24th. We become very cold through that period and should see our first foray in a while to well below normal temperature levels.