Reviewing Flames Defensemen Projections

Calgary’s blue line was overhauled in the 2011 off-season. Absent for the first time since 1999 was Robyn Regehr, along with depth pieces Steve Staios and Adam Pardy, replaced with Chris Butler, Scott Hannan and Derek Smith.

To help set scoring expectations for Calgary’s blue line, and indeed their entire line-up, we used the Snepsts System of searching NHL’s long history for players with similar scoring totals, and using their following seasons as a basis for predicting how well each of today’s player would do in 2011-12. For each player we found players with similar historical scoring results to set high-water, low-water and average scoring results.

It’s one thing to publish your pre-season player scoring projections, but it’s another to circle back and see how you did. We started last week with a look at Calgary’s top-six forwards, for which we were probably 3-3, although we probably picked up the loser point in two of those losses.

This week we’ll look at Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Babchuk and Mark Giordano, followed by a look at the scaled down version we adopted for those of more modest scoring like Cory Sarich, Scott Hannan and Chris Butler. We’ll conclude with a look back at the AHL-to-NHL translations we used to predict scoring for those with limited NHL experience like T.J. Brodie, Derek Smith and the relatively unused Brett Carson and Clay Wilson.

Jay Bouwmeester’s historical comparables are well documented, having even done an in-depth analysis mid-season, and were also highly consistent, so it was with high confidence that we predicted he’d be below 30 points, much like his closest scoring match Rick Lanz.

Jay Bouwmeester’s 5 goals and 29 points were almost exactly what we expected, bang on with his various comparables. The aforemented in-depth piece identified twelve players, all of whom had similar seasons and histories as Bouwmeester. We concluded that “those who lacked a strong defensive game were essentially done, like Yushkevich, Potvin, Smith, Mara, Lanz and (probably) Hainsey. Those with strong defensive games enjoyed between three to seven more seasons, like Russell, Hatcher, Green and (probably) Hamhuis. Those who managed to get their scoring back (if only temporarily) also managed to keep going for four to nine more seasons, like Crossman and Huddy.”

For two straight seasons the most intriguing historical comparable for Mark Giordano was his best-case scenario: Norris-winning Duncan Keith and a potential 68-point season. Even his average expectation was impressive: 43 points in a complete 82-game season, even higher than the normally more optimistic VUKOTA system, which had him pegged for 35 points in 71 games.

Unfortunately Giordano fell short of the best-case scenario, and 5 points shy of the average of his comparables (43 points in 82 games works out to 32 points in 61 games), which put him in the same territory as former Flames like Steve Smith and Igor Kravchuk. Uhh.. that’s not good. Moving on.

Despite that big new contract, Anton Babchuk wasn’t used unless everyone (including depth AHLers) were injured – and even then wasn’t given much opportunity to score. Even if you stretch out his scoring over 82 games, his 26 points would still finish about halfway between the average and worst possible expectations.

After reviewing his historical matches last October we wrote “Both the VUKOTA and Snepsts systems agree that Sarich is looking at roughly a 14-point season, much like many veteran depth two-way defensemen of the past. That assumes he can play a full season, otherwise he’s more likely to finish with 6 points, like in 2009-10.”

While we successfully predicted Chris Butler’s scoring production, we also said “don’t put him in Regehr’s skates because he can’t fill them,” and in that we were greatly mistaken. Chris Butler played effectively in top-line duty alongside Jay Bouwmeester, while Robyn Regehr was outscored by Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne.

Given historical comparables like Tim Watters, Jay Wells, Jason Smith and Curtis Leschyshyn we felt that Scott Hannan’s scoring would continue to drop, and that he was “unlikely to get the opportunity to even hit double-digit scoring.”

System GP G A PTS
VUKOTA 62 1 9 10
SNEPSTS 80 1 5 6
Actual 78 2 10 12

Scott Hannan’s 12 points were double what we expected, and far more in line with optimistic VUKOTA’s projection. It was actually his 2nd best season scoring-wise since his first season in Colorado back in 2007-08.

For T.J. Brodie we translated his AHL scoring to an NHL equivalent and came up with 17 points in 71 games, which is roughly the same scoring level projected by VUKOTA, which assumed he’d only get the opportunity to play in 25.

System GP G A PTS
VUKOTA 25 2 5 7
NHLE 71 3 17 17
Actual 54 2 12 14

T.J. Brodie’s 14 points in 54 games further reinforces the validity of AHL-to-NHL translations, as his scoring level of 0.26 points per game very closely matches the expectation of 0.24.

For Derek Smith, the AHL-to-NHL translation for each of his past two seasons worked out to 23 points, a couple more than what you’d get if you stretched VUKOTA’s projection of 7 points in 27 games out to a full year.

System GP G A PTS
VUKOTA 27 2 5 7
NHLE 80 4 19 23
Actual 47 2 9 11

Derek Smith’s projection of 23 points in 80 games would work out to 13.5 in 47 games, a little more than he actually scored for the Flames. That’s about as accurate a projection as you can get for a player with just 11 games of NHL experience.

Clay Wilson’s AHL-to-NHL translations paint the picture of a very consistent 20-point scorer, coming off a career high 25, just like VUKOTA would project over a full season.

System GP G A PTS
VUKOTA 31 3 7 10
NHLE 82 8 17 25
Actual 5 0 0 0

Of course we have no idea how many points Wilson would have scored over a full season, having played just 5 games – most of it at the end of the year when Calgary was already eliminated from the play-offs, but we included this projection for completeness sake.

We went the extra mile with Brett Carson, projecting his AHL data to their NHL equivalent to see how he might to this season even though “barring lots of injuries, Brett Carson is likely to be plying his trade in the same place he has for years – in the AHL. “ In 2010-11, for instance, he would have scored 10 points in 57 games at the NHL level.

System GP G A PTS
VUKOTA 43 2 6 8
SNEPSTS 43 0 7 7
Actual 2 0 0 0

Brett Carson only got two games of action, so we’re including this one only for interest’s sake.

Next Time

Calgary got the most out of low-cost depth pieces like Chris Butler, Scott Hannan, Derek Smith and T.J. Brodie, and ultra-high-cost depth piece Cory Sarich, but failed to justify the hefty contract awarded to Anton Babchuk. Mark Giordano’s season didn’t live up to his potential, and Jay Bouwmeester’s performance, while predictable, is still well short of his Norris-level contract – at least scoring-wise.

Once again our record is roughly even – the projections were largely accurate in the case of Jay Bouwmeester, Chris Butler and the AHLers T.J. Brodie and Derek Smith, but at least a little off in the case of Mark Giordano, Anton Babchuk, Scott Hannan and Cory Sarich. Given that most of them still fell within the range, we should at least get credited with the loser points.

Having already taken a look back at their top-six forwards last week, and their defensemen here this week, all that remains is to look back at their other forwards like David Moss, Matt Stajan, and company – something we’ll do next week.

I know it’s completely off topic, but did anyone watch the Flyers-Pens game last night??

SO MANY GOALS! This series must be an NHL record for offensive output… oh wait…

Perhaps not entirely off topic then, because this leads me to: we’re going to need to add quite a few key pieces on both defense and in terms of forwards if we ever expect to compete against teams like that. Wow.

Jay Bouwmeester’s historical comparables are well documented, having even done an in-depth analysis mid-season, and were also highly consistent, so it was with high confidence that we predicted he’d be below 30 points, much like his closest scoring match Rick Lanz.

Okay Robert, here is my main problem with relying just on statistical numbers. In casual conversation, if someone asked you who you would compare Jay Bouwmeester to and what his value to any team was, is the first name that would pop into your head Rick Lanz?

We all know he hasn’t put up the numbers that he did in Florida, no news there, but he also carries and intrinsic value that I think ranks him higher than the likes of Lanz. I wouldn’t consider him a suitable comparable.

You know who I had at the top of my list of suggested signings for the Flames last year? Jay Garrison. This year he had 33 points and led Florida with a +6 (playing alongside Campbell, but still) – all for $675,000.

Suter’s awesome, and the secret’s out on Garrison, but there are great values out there to be had.

First of all, the new version of Snepsts that will be revealed this off-season does include some defensive measurements.

Secondly, Snepsts just finds players with comparable statistics, it’s up to us to make of it what we will.

Third – don’t cherry-pick. In a group of statistical comparables you’re going to get a Rick Lanz or two, but hopefully as an entire group it will be far more reasonable.

Fourth and finally, there is still something to be learned from Rick Lanz. Regardless of how they came to walk such a similar statistical path, there they are, and the path Lanz takes from here could still be of great value. Although I’ll admit – Bouwmeester’s defensive skills will keep him playing long after an offensive-only comparable is long retired.

First of all, the new version of Snepsts that will be revealed this off-season does include some defensive measurements.

Cool.. I’ll be interested to see that when it does, especially when referencing guys like Bouw.

Third – don’t cherry-pick.

Wait.. I thought we were talking Bouw, why you have to bring up Iggy?

Fourth and finally, there is still something to be learned from Rick Lanz. Regardless of how they came to walk such a similar statistical path, there they are, and the path Lanz takes from here could still be of great value. Although I’ll admit – Bouwmeester’s defensive skills will keep him playing long after an offensive-only comparable is long retired.