Bucks can win if: Larry Sanders dominates the interior. In Milwaukee's lone victory over the Heat, Sanders had four blocks and held Chris Bosh to 5-for-14 shooting. Not much for Bucks to latch onto in this lopsided series, but it's something.

Key matchup: Carmelo Anthony vs. Paul Pierce -- Two great scorers, head to head, makes for a great matchup. Unless Pierce comes close to matching Anthony's output, Boston has no shot.

Knicks can win if: Tyson Chandler dominates the interior defensively. If the 2012 Defensive Player of the Year limits Kevin Garnett and halts some of Pierce's drives to the rim, the Knicks advance.

Celtics can win if: Garnett turns back the clock. Garnett has been a dominant player in playoffs past. He will have to return to yesteryear for Boston to have a chance.

Prediction: Knicks in 7

3. Pacers (49-32) vs. 6. Hawks (44-38)

Season series: Tied 2-2

Key matchup: Roy Hibbert vs. Al Horford -- Two of the league's best centers hold the keys to this series. Horford's ability to take Hibbert away from basket to defend him can make scoring hero out of Josh Smith.

Pacers can win if: The Georges dominate. That's point guard George Hill and swing man Paul George. If Hill limits Jeff Teague and George continues to score big, the series could be short.

Hawks can win if: Josh Smith proves he's worthy of a max contract. If the free agent-to-be dominates the paint at both ends, he may be worth what he thinks he is worth.

Prediction: Pacers in 6

4. Nets (49-33) vs. 5. Bulls (45-37)

Season series: Bulls won 3-1

Key matchup: Brook Lopez vs. Joakim Noah -- Lopez has been a dominant force this season. Noah has dominated the interior when he's been healthy enough. This will be a physical battle.

Nets can win if: Deron Williams channels his Utah Jazz days. Williams forced firing of Avery Johnson when he said he preferred style he played in Utah. If he pays as he did, pre-trade, he can dominate.

Bulls can win if: They stifle an already challenged offense. If they slow Williams and limit Lopez, the Nets don't have enough weapons to win.

Prediction: Nets in 7

Western Conference

1. Thunder (60-22) vs. 8. Rockets (45-37)

Season series: Thunder won 2-1

Key matchup: Thabo Sefolosha vs. James Harden -- Don't doubt this is personal for Harden, traded by Thunder after contract negotiations broke down. If Sefolosha keeps him from dominating, Houston has no shot.

Thunder can win if: They beat Rockets at their own game. Houston wants to push pace and fire away from 3-point range. OKC can play that game, too.

Rockets can win if: Revenge really is the best motivation. Houston has no hope unless Harden is the most dominant player in the series.

Key matchup: Tony Parker vs. Steve Blake/Steve Nash -- Before spraining left ankle Parker was one of NBA's most dominant point guards. If he returns to that form in this series, it won't last past five games.

Spurs can win if: They push the pace, start to finish. It's San Antonio that needs to score in seven seconds or less, not Mike D'Antoni's Lakers.

Lakers can win if: Dwight Howard becomes Mark Price at the foul line. There's no doubt Gregg Popovich will use Hack-A-Dwight. If Howard makes his foul shots, Lakers have a shot.

Prediction: Spurs in 6

3. Nuggets (57-25) vs. 6. Warriors (47-25)

Season series: Nuggets won 3-1

Key matchup: Ty Lawson vs. Steph Curry -- Watching two of the NBA's most dynamic point guards makes this series must-see TV. Lawson will try to run Curry into the ground. Curry will try to wear out Lawson behind the 3-point line.

Nuggets can win if: They dominate the boards. If they defensive rebound and get Lawson and friends off and running, it won't matter what Curry does from range.

Warriors can win if: David Lee works on defensive slides. Unless one of the worst interior defenders in the league keeps Denver's power forwards in check, they've got no shot.