The provincial election is just days away, and there is no clear indication which party leader will end up in the premier’s office. So the populace must be wrapped up in the drama of the electoral moment, right? Well, maybe. Or maybe not. To help voters sift through the various election night showdowns, the Post’s Megan O’Toole outlines 10 races to watch in the Greater Toronto Area.

BRAMPTON-SPRINGDALE

The Progressive Conservatives are pinning their hopes on lawyer Pam Hundal to unseat Liberal Linda Jeffrey in Brampton-Springdale. Ms. Hundal’s last shot at Queen’s Park was unsuccessful: She lost by a substantial margin to the Liberal incumbent in Bramalea-Gore-Malton. This time around, the race took on an added element of drama when local media pounced on revelations that Ms. Hundal’s husband was facing sexual assault charges. “The fact of Ms. Hundal’s ‘scandal’ might be a bit of an issue,” York University political scientist Robert Drummond said, noting while it may draw her some sympathy votes, others may react negatively. The party has continued to support Ms. Hundal, and is hoping the federal Conservative surge in Brampton will translate to the provincial stage.

DAVENPORT

With the retirement of veteran Liberal Tony Ruprecht, the Davenport riding is wide open, and the NDP is aiming to claim it with candidate Jonah Schein, who has worked in the area for years as a teacher and community organizer. In the 2007 election, the Liberals bested the New Democrats by fewer than 2,000 votes, with the Green Party coming in a distant third. Federally, the NDP unseated Davenport’s Liberal incumbent in a landslide vote this spring, and University of Toronto politics professor Nelson Wiseman believes the party is poised for another breakthrough. “The NDP has momentum there,” he noted. The Liberals are running Cristina Martins, who heads the Federation of Portuguese Canadian Business and Professionals — an allegiance that could work in her favour among the riding’s substantial Portuguese population.

EGLINTON-LAWRENCE

The Progressive Conservatives are putting up former mayoral candidate Rocco Rossi against long-time Liberal MPP Mike Colle in Eglinton-Lawrence, where the incumbent has held office for more than 15 years. As one of the star Tory candidates, Mr. Rossi has name recognition in the city — despite dropping out of the mayoral race early amid sagging poll numbers — and is banking on the same Conservative sentiment that painted the region blue federally. Mr. Rossi, who served as the federal Liberal Party’s national director before launching a mayoral bid, may have lost some credibility by jumping so quickly between political parties and arenas, Mr. Drummond said: “The mayoral race probably didn’t do him much good.” Though Mr. Colle has incumbency to his credit, he faced a stiff challenge in 2007 from the Progressive Conservatives.

ETOBICOKE-LAKESHORE

The Liberals suffered an upset in the federal election when their former leader, Michael Ignatieff, lost his Etobicoke-Lakeshore seat, the highest-profile loss in a countrywide rebuke of the party. At the provincial level, the Tories have a shot at repeating the feat, with businessman Simon Nyilassy hoping to topple incumbent Liberal Laurel Broten. Mr. Wiseman said he expects the riding to remain red, but cited an “outside chance” Mr. Nyilassy could take it. In the last provincial vote, the Tories came up about 7,000 votes short of the Liberals, but the NDP only picked up 13% of the vote; that share will likely be higher this time around and could consequently cut into Liberal support, Mr. Wiseman said.

MISSISSAUGA SOUTH

Mississauga South will be a battleground riding as incumbent Liberal Charles Sousa attempts to fend off a challenge from Progressive Conservative Geoff Janoscik, a lawyer by trade. The riding has been dominated by a single issue in recent days: Premier Dalton McGuinty’s decision to halt construction on a controversial gas-fired power plant. Residents in the area have been rallying against the plant for months, but the province’s decision to relocate it came just two weeks before the election, spurring accusations of political gamesmanship. While the Liberals have been trying to paint the power-plant decision as a victory for their green energy agenda, the perception of another McGuinty “flip-flop” could affect the vote, noted University of Ottawa urban politics expert Caroline Andrew.

PARKDALE-HIGH PARK

The Parkdale-High Park race will be closely watched, with the Liberals hoping they can reclaim the seat after losing it twice to NDP incumbent Cheri DiNovo. She first won a 2006 byelection to replace Liberal Gerard Kennedy, who moved to the federal stage, and was re-elected in a general election the following year. Experts suggest the NDP will be able to hold the seat this time around, despite a challenge from Liberal Cortney Pasternak, a community activist and broadcast journalist. To her advantage, Ms. Pasternak is also a familiar face, having covered national and international news for Global and CTV. But “Cheri DiNovo now has established herself,” Mr. Wiseman said, noting the NDP incumbent will also likely benefit from the party’s federal momentum.

PICKERING-SCARBOROUGH EAST

With the retirement of Liberal Wayne Arthurs, the Pickering-Scarborough East seat is up for grabs, and the race will come down to a contest between Liberal businesswoman Tracy MacCharles and Progressive Conservative Kevin Gaudet, the former national director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. Mr. Gaudet came onto the scene after the withdrawal of the Tories’ original nominee in the riding, a mortgage broker who was charged with fraud. The riding was solidly Liberal in the 2007 vote, with a substantial margin between Mr. Arthurs and the second-place Progressive Conservative candidate, but experts say it has definite potential to turn Tory, particularly with a well-known fiscal conservative such as Mr. Gaudet on the ballot.

THORNHILL

Thornhill could easily turn red as Liberal Bernie Farber faces off with incumbent Progressive Conservative Peter Shurman. Mr. Farber, former head of the Canadian Jewish Congress, is a prominent figure in the Jewish community and one of its most outspoken advocates, something that would play well among Thornhill’s large Jewish population. Mr. Shurman won a tight contest against Liberal incumbent Mario Racco in the last provincial election, likely bolstered by the otherwise widely rejected Tory policy on religious schools, Mr. Drummond said. Federally, the riding is solidly Conservative, but this contest could turn on personality as much as party. “I think the Liberals have a shot,” Mr. Drummond said. “[Mr. Farber] is very well-known in the Jewish community and generally well-respected.”

TRINITY-SPADINA

Another former mayoral candidate, Sarah Thomson, will be trying her luck on the provincial scene, running for the Liberals in Trinity-Spadina. She will face off against NDP incumbent Rosario Marchese. Even though Ms. Thomson dropped out of the mayoral race before voting day, choosing instead to throw her support behind prominent Liberal George Smitherman, “people admired her campaign,” Mr. Drummond noted. The primary difficulty for Ms. Thomson in Trinity-Spadina is that the riding is solid NDP ground; federally, the riding belongs to New Democrat Olivia Chow, widow of late party leader Jack Layton. Provincially, the 2007 race was closer, but Mr. Marchese still took it by more than 4,000 votes.

VAUGHAN

Progressive Conservative candidate Tony Genco ran as a Liberal against Julian Fantino in a federal byelection last year and lost, prompting Mr. Genco to repudiate his former party and take up the Tory cause. He is running in Vaughan against veteran Liberal Greg Sorbara, who crushed his Progressive Conservative opponent in 2007. While Mr. Sorbara is expected to keep the seat, observers will be watching to see whether Mr. Genco can make inroads, particularly in light of the Conservative momentum that swept Mr. Fantino into office. The Tories have supported Mr. Genco in his switch from red to blue, and the public may also accept it, Ms. Andrew said. “There’s incredibly much less political loyalty among voters… [switching parties] is a much less strong negative than it was in the political world of the past.”

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