Joey Logano has jumped from 18th to eighth in the standings in just six races. / Peter Casey, USA TODAY Sports

by Nate Ryan and Jeff Gluck, USA TODAY Sports

by Nate Ryan and Jeff Gluck, USA TODAY Sports

After a grueling 25 races in a schedule that tipped in February and has seen NASCAR's premier series cross the country on fender-banging short tracks, mid-size ovals, road courses and restrictor-plate layouts, Saturday night's race at Richmond will decide the final slots for the 12-driver, 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup.

USA TODAY Sports' Nate Ryan and Jeff Gluck have consulted their crystal balls and selected who will take the final five slots. Three drivers will finish in the top 10 in points. The other two will take provisionals -- or wild cards -- by having the most wins from 11th-20th in points.

NATE RYAN'S PICKS:

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: A cinch to make the Chase and probably better positioned for strong results than he was a year ago (under the lingering fog of a concussion) even though no one will be picking him to win the championship this time.

Joey Logano: The hottest driver in NASCAR will sail through Richmond and into his first Chase for the Sprint Cup berth grouped with Johnson, Kenseth and Busch as a championship favorite.

Greg Biffle: The performance of the No. 16 Ford has been undulating throughout the summer, but Biffle â?? whose Michigan win makes him a can't-miss for the Chase â?? has regained his confidence the past two weeks.

Kurt Busch: The winner of the inaugural Chase will bookend that feat 10 seasons later with another first â?? qualifying a single-car team for the playoff. Of Busch's many accolades, this might be the greatest.

Martin Truex Jr.: He proved his mettle at Atlanta by gritting through the pain of a broken wrist and a faulty cast. He will outpoint Ryan Newman for the final wild card spot Saturday.

Surprise to miss it

Jeff Gordon: He is exhibiting the necessary carefree demeanor for another spirited and unbelievable comeback -- and his team is battle-tested -- but the needed good fortune won't smile on the No. 24 for the second straight season.

JEFF GLUCK'S PICKS

Earnhardt Jr.: Is this even a question? Earnhardt Jr. is 37 points inside the Chase, so it's hard to imagine a turn of events that would prevent him from making it.

Logano: He's 16 points clear of 11th and has done enough to make the top 10 with a solid run. But even if he falls out, Logano would probably just drop to the No. 2 wild card thanks to his win at Michigan.

Biffle: See above. Biffle doesn't need to sweat too much, especially if dropping out of the top 10 meant Kahne (currently taking a wild card spot) would get in.

Gordon: He just made it in a similar situation last year, and it's just too hard to believe any Hendrick Motorsports car would miss the playoff.

Ryan Newman: He's racing Truex Jr. for the final wild card spot (assuming Kahne stays outside the top 10), but Truex's average Richmond finish is 23.7. Newman's average Richmond finish is 11.8.

Surprise to miss it:

Busch: His valiant effort to make the Chase from a single-car team has been admirable, but it's hard to trust his pit crew in clutch situations. When everything is on the line, will his team really come through? (By the way, Brad Keselowski won't make it, but that isn't a "surprise" because his chances are so slim.)

Drivers eligible for the five remaining Chase berths

The first four can make the top 10 regardless of how others fare:

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Finish 32nd or better, 33rd with at least one lap led or 34th with the most laps led.

Joey Logano: Finish 11th or better, 12th with at least one lap led or 13th with the most laps led.

Greg Biffle: Finish ninth or better, 10th with at least one lap led or 11th and the most laps led.

Kurt Busch: Winning, finish second with at least one lap led or finish third with the most laps led.

These drivers need help to clinch a top-10 spot. Some control their own wild-card destiny (a win would guarantee at least a wild card).

Jeff Gordon: Clinches at least a wild card slot with a win.

Martin Truex Jr.: Clinches at least a wild card spot with second victory.

Ryan Newman: Clinches at least a wild card spot with second victory.

Brad Keselowski: The 2012 champion remains eligible for a top-10 spot, but he really must win his first race of 2013 to be in contention.