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Major separatist factions and leading ethno-nationalist politicians active in Pakistan’s restive southwestern province of Balochistan have denied engaging in secret talks with Chinese officials keen on preserving their country’s $60 billion investments.

Sources within the insurgent factions, however, claim that some Baloch political figures did meet with Chinese officials, but it is not clear what exactly was achieved.

The confusion over the meetings emerged this week after the Financial Times newspaper reported that Chinese officials have been holding talks with Baluch militants for more than five years to secure nearly $60 billion investments in energy and infrastructure collectively called the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Quoting anonymous sources, a February 19 report in the newspaper said Chinese officials “have quietly made a lot of progress” in efforts to secure CPEC, which aims to link Balochistan’s Gwadar seaport to Xingjian region in western China.

CPEC is the flagship project of a larger Chinese strategy dubbed One Belt One Road, which aims to link China with Africa, Europe, and Asia in a 21st-century reincarnation of the ancient Silk Road.

Two people familiar with the talks said Baluch tribal leaders Gazain Marri and Sardar Akhtar Mengal held two rounds of secret talks with a Chinese delegation in the United Arab Emirates in May and September last year.

Both exiled members of Baluch separatist factions who now live in Europe requested anonymity because of fears that such claims would further divide an already fragmented separatist leadership.

“Gazain Marri ended 18 years of self-exile and returned to Pakistan, which was most probably because of Chinese government efforts,” said one of the figures, who was close to his father, the late Baluch separatist leader Khair Baksh Marri.

Marri couldn’t be reached for immediate comment but has rejected claims that his return in September was the result of a secret deal. In November, he urged caution and dialogue and indicated a willingness to help negotiations between armed separatist rebels and the Pakistani government.

“I want to engage in consultation to work out a middle path toward compromise,” he told Radio Mashaal at the time.

Mengal, the leader of the ethno-nationalist Balochistan National Party (BNP), denied meeting with Chinese officials. “Why would I meet a Chinese delegation secretly in Dubai? I can meet them openly in Pakistan,” he said.

Mengal, who served as chief minister or the most senior elected official of Balochistan in the 1990s, said the only time Chinese diplomats approached him was in 2016 when he hosted Pakistani political parties in the capital, Islamabad, for a debate over CPEC’s potential negative impact on Balochistan.

“I couldn’t meet the Chinese delegation then because I was busy, but we conveyed our party’s reservations,” he said. “Later, when I wanted to meet the Chinese diplomats, they declined to meet us, claiming our party’s stand on CPEC was too rigid.”

BNP and other Baluch nationalist parties oppose CPEC because of fears it will attract an influx of economic migrants to Gwadar and other Balochistan regions, which will render the Baluch into a minority in their historic homeland.

Sentiments over the CPEC run high in the region reeling from more than 15 years of simmering violence. Thousands of civilians, soldiers, activists, and guerrillas have been killed and hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced in Balochistan, where the military and militants frequently accuse each other of atrocities and grave rights violations.

In recent years, Baluch separatist militants, organized in various guerrilla factions, have acted on their threats to attack CPEC projects. All prominent exiled leaders such as Brahumdagh Bugti, Mehran Baluch, and Hyrbyair Marri have either denied participating in talks with the Chinese or say they have no knowledge of such negotiations.

“All independent political parties and armed groups are working against Chinese investments and other exploitive projects, which are doomed to fail,” said Gwarham Baloch, a spokesman for the Baloch Liberation Front.

Pakistani and international media reports suggest that scores of Pakistani workers and a handful of Chinese engineers and technicians have so far been killed in attacks in Balochistan.

The sentiments against the growing Chinese footprint in the region is widely shared among separatist factions.

“How can talks be held with China when they are helping the Pakistani military kill and abduct Baluch activists?” asked Sher Muhammad Bugti, a spokesman for the Baloch Republican Party.

“We are open to talks even with China, but first China has to become neutral and leave the province,” he added.

Aslam Baloch, a senior commander of the Balochistan Liberation Army, also dismissed reports of secret talks with China.

“CPEC is a serious threat to Baluch national existence. Pakistan and China are continuously inflicting brutalities upon the Baluch nation for its success,” he wrote on Twitter. “Therefore, talks with tribal elders, or anybody else for that matter, do not carry any importance.”

Former lawmaker Kachkol Ali, however, says the talks between Beijing and Baluch separatist figures are a serious possibility. He points to the return of Gazain Marri and the recent reconciliation of another exiled figure, Juma Marri, with Pakistan as evidence of efforts to wean figures away from the separatist movement.

"It is premature to say if China is acting as the mediator between Pakistan and separatists,” he noted. “But if something is happening, it can't be kept secret for long.”

Kiyya Baloch is a freelance journalist who reports on the insurgency, militancy, and sectarian violence in Balochistan.

The threat of Chinese bases in the region becomes more pertinent if they become China exclusive. So does China pick up the tab for others because the host country isn't going to accept less and lose relations

Last month, Djibouti ended its contract with Dubai’s DP World, one of the world’s biggest port operators, to run the Doraleh Container Terminal, citing failure to resolve a dispute that began in 2012.

DP World called the move an illegal seizure of the terminal and said it had begun new arbitration proceedings before the London Court of International Arbitration.

During a U.S. congressional hearing on Tuesday, which was dominated by concerns about China’s role in Africa, lawmakers said they had seen reports that Djibouti seized control of the port to give it to China as a gift.

China has already built a military base in Djibouti, just miles from a critical U.S. military base.

“If this was an illegal seizure of that port, what is to say that government wouldn’t illegally terminate our lease before its term is up,” said Representative Bradley Byrne, a Republican.

In a letter to U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Byrne said he was concerned about China’s influence in Djibouti and the impact it would have on U.S. military and intelligence assets.

Marine General Thomas Waldhauser, the top U.S. military commander overseeing troops in Africa, said that if China placed restrictions on the port’s use, it could affect resupplying the U.S. base in Djibouti and the ability of Navy ships to refuel there.

“If the Chinese took over that port, then the consequences could be significant,” Waldhauser said during the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee hearing.

China has sought to be visible in Africa, including through high-profile investment in public infrastructure projects, as it deepens its trade ties.

Waldhauser said that the United States would be unable to match the scale of that investment throughout the continent, noting Beijing’s construction of shopping malls, government buildings and even soccer stadiums.

“We’ll never outspend the Chinese in (Africa),” Waldhauser said, noting some of the Chinese investments in Djibouti.

Come on man. Hambantota and Gwadar and you still don't see India in the picture? The objective is to have an effective PLAN presence in the Indian Ocean to deny USN and IN complete control of it. Not only is India in the picture but also Diego Garcia.

In a bid to ease Pakistan’s concerns over the port project, Javad Zarif said Chabahar was not meant to “strangle” any country.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on Monday invited Pakistan to take part in the Chabahar Port project.

According to Dawn News this came as Zarif sought to ease concerns of Pakistan over India’s involvement in the port.

Zarif also meanwhile extended the invitation to China.

“We offered to participate in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). We have also offered Pakistan and China to participate in Chabahar,” said Zarif, who is on a three-day visit to Pakistan.

While in Pakistan, Zarif held bilateral talks with his Pakistani counterpart Khawaja Asif and addressed a trade conference, Dawn News reported.

This move comes after Iran last month signed a lease agreement with India, which would give India operational control of the port.

Dawn news stated that Zarif said both Pakistan and India need to link through sea and land routes in order to boost development in eastern and south-eastern Iran and in south western Pakistan.

Zarif also said the Chabahar port project was not meant to “encircle Pakistan … strangulate anybody” and twice said Iran would not allow anyone to hurt Pakistan from its territory much like Pakistan would not allow its soil to be used against Iran, Dawn News reported.

ISLAMABAD —
China has allegedly detained dozens of Muslim women in its restive Xinjiang province for marrying men in a northern border region of neighboring Pakistan.

The issue was addressed in a unanimously passed resolution of the legislative assembly of the Gilgit-Baltistan region, known as GB, that was revealed by the Pakistani lawmakers Sunday.

The resolution demands the Pakistani government take urgent steps to secure the release of more than 50 Chinese wives, who it says were taken into custody last year while they were visiting relatives in their native towns in Xinjiang.

The deputy speaker of the assembly was quoted as saying the women were rounded up during a Chinese anti-terrorism crackdown on the ethnic Uighur Muslin community in Xinjiang.

The detainees are married to GB men who are mostly associated with trading activity through the Khunjerab Pass, the only land route linking Pakistan and China, about 4,500 meters above sea level.

Regional lawmakers insisted the history of intermarriages between GB and Xinjiang is decades old, and both the border regions share deep cultural ties. They asserted the detained Chinese women were innocent and had no links to any radical elements.

Chinese and Pakistani federal officials have not immediately offered any reaction to the allegations leveled in the resolution.

Religiously-motivated violence in Xinjiang has been a cause of concern for Chinese officials. They blame the outlawed East Turkestan Islamic Movement, or ETIM, for plotting the terrorist attacks in and beyond the province.

The separatist group was founded by militant Uighurs apparently in response to alleged government restrictions on religious and cultural expression, charges Beijing denies as baseless.

ETIM is believed to have ties with militants operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Gilgit-Baltistan region is the gateway to a massive economic cooperation deal, called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

BRI at times gets compared to the Marshall plan. This isn't true. The Marshall plan allowed war devastated economies to recover and prosper. On top of that the Americans provided cover from the Soviets which allowed them the space & time to recover.

BRI won't revive the economies of participating countries to the same extent.

The Euros were interested in BRI but one of the conditions China insists on is transfer of technology as the price for admission. Euros aren't on board with that. They also disagree who gets the tender for any projects in the EU regardless of whether China is the principal financial sponsor. Meaning they cannot be mostly Chinese as is the case to now.

ISLAMABAD: In order to keep its economy afloat and avoid the IMF bailout package to ensure smooth running of $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, Pakistan has shared different proposals with friendly countries, especially Saudi Arabia and China.

The friendly countries have been requested to provide Islamabad with $6 to $8 billion breathing space in shape of cash grants, parking money as safe deposits into the central bank, allowing payment of imports in Pak Rupee and provision of oil imports at deferred payment.

“We have worked out proposals and shared the same with our friendly countries with the hope that all is going well for Pakistan. We have proposed to China to allow whole imports bill or at least half payment in Pak Rupee as trade deficit with Beijing had ballooned to $12.5 billion last fiscal year. With this one provision, Pakistan can get relief in terms of reduced reliance on the dollar,” official sources in Finance Ministry confirmed to The News Tuesday.

Pakistan and China placed swap agreement and it needed to be expanded up to the level where the former could be permitted to make payments of import bill in Pak Rupee instead of US dollar.

Without the much-needed breathing space, Pakistan will be left with no option but to knock at the door of the IMF. In that scenario, there will be no smooth implementation of CPEC, official sources privy to internal discussions shared with The News.

Prime Minister’s Adviser on Finance Miftah Ismail confirmed to The News last week that they had contacted friendly countries for assistance in managing economy for next financial year. The request has been made at a time when the economic managers are preparing budget 2018-19. The working done by the Ministry of Finance, which was also shared with the ambassador of a friendly country shows that Islamabad considers that CPEC could only run in a smooth manner if Islamabad successfully avoids bailout package from the IMF so China will have to come forward to allocate special provisions for keeping Pakistan’s economy afloat at a time when the gross financing requirement was estimated to touch $16 billion in the outgoing fiscal year.

Another proposal was to request China to park $4 to $5 billion into the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). If China can finance the US deficit by parking $500 billion into the US treasury then why can’t they provide $5 billion for keeping it into the SBP safe deposits?

Saudi Arabia could provide either cash grants or oil at deferred payments as they had done in the past to rescue Islamabad at difficult times. The PML-N government seems confident that these proposals would get through to friendly countries helping Pakistan to avoid seeking a fresh IMF bailout package after completion of the current government’s tenure.

“It is yet to be seen whether it’s only wish or it can be materialised,” said a top official, adding, “It depends upon Islamabad’s ability to successfully convince the friendly countries that we have the capacity to overcome our woes after getting this “breathing space” because no one could rescue holders of begging bowl forever.

Oh and if Nawaz is successful at getting the Saudis to assist then i think he deserves a second term

Chinese engineers and other staffers, engaged in the construction of M4 Motorway from Bahawalpur to Faisalabad, attacked policemen deployed for their security after the foreign workers were barred from leaving their camp's premises without a security squad, DawnNewsTV reported on Wednesday.

According to police officials, Chinese engineers and other officials wanted to leave their camp in Khanewal and visit a "red-light" area on Tuesday night. They resorted to agitation when denied permission to leave the camp without being accompanied by security officials.

Later, the Chinese engineers also cut power supply to the police camp established within the main construction camp, the officials added.

On Wednesday morning, the Chinese workers stopped work on the project and abandoned heavy machinery and vehicles on various roads in the area. They also resorted to violence and attacked police in their camp.

Subsequently, the protesting Chinese engineers wrote a letter to Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, claiming that police officials refrained them from performing their duties and attacked them.

They also accused the security in-charge of attempting to hit the Chinese workers with his vehicle. Police officials, however, rejected the accusations and said they were fabricated.

Later in the day, Khanewal DPO Rizwan Omer Gondal held a meeting with the protesting Chinese workers following which they agreed to open the blocked roads.

Meanwhile, the police officials made it clear to the Chinese engineers that they will not be allowed to leave their camp without security arrangements.

KABUL — Reports about Afghan Taliban safe havens on Pakistani soil are abundant and such refuges are seen as crucial for the militants’ ability to sustain their insurgency inside Afghanistan. What is often overlooked is that some extremist groups, like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), do the same, but in reverse – seeking shelter on the Afghan side of the border (which Kabul does not officially recognize) to launch assaults on the Pakistani side.

While Pakistani officials have been making such accusations for years, they – unlike the allegations from Afghan and U.S. officials regarding Afghan insurgents hiding out on Pakistani soil – never really gained much traction or attention.

That these Pakistani assertions are not smoke and mirrors was recently confirmed though. On March 7 a U.S. drone struck a TTP camp in the eastern Afghan province of Kunar, close to the Pakistani border. The attack killed at least 20 TTP fighters, among them Abdullah, the son of the movement’s leader, Mullah Fazlullah, as a TTP statement sent to Pakistani media acknowledged.

Prior to that, an Afghan militant, who cooperates with TTP elements and goes by the nom de guerre of Qari Saifullah, stated in an exclusive interview that the later targeted TTP group consisting of Pakistani (many from the Swat valley) and Afghan fighters was residing in the remote Chawgam area in Kunar’s Shigal Wa Sheltan district. He also confirmed that the drone strike took place in the said area and had caused considerable casualties. The group is led by Ustod Fateh, and, before the drone strike, had staged cross-border incursions at least every month or so, in particular into the Pakistani tribal agency of Bajaur, Saifullah added. While such incidents are not always picked up by media, one attack on a Pakistani Army outpost in Bajaur, that was, according to Saifullah, conducted by this group, was reported by Reuters in mid-November 2017.

What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

HIGHLIGHTS
- The report by US-based research group C4ADS questions China's portrayal of "Belt and Road Initiative" as strictly meant to promote economic development
- The report concluded that 15 Chinese-funded port projects in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Djibouti and elsewhere aren't driven by "win-win" economic development

HONG KONG: A massive Chinese infrastructure programme that Beijing says is aimed at promoting global trade and economic growth is actually intended to expand the country's political influence and military presence, according to a report issued Tuesday.

The report by the US-based research group C4ADS questions China's portrayal of the trillion-dollar programme, called the "Belt and Road Initiative," as strictly meant to promote economic development.
President Xi Jinping's signature foreign policy programme, is working to reinforce China's links to Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa through networks of roads, ports, railways, power plants and other infrastructure projects.

C4ADS, a nonprofit research institute that specializes in data analysis and security, examined official Chinese policy documents and unofficial reports by Chinese analysts to analyze the intentions of Beijing's ambitious economic development programme, which seeks to connect 65 per cent of the world's population in more than 60 countries.

Chinese officials say the initiative, also known as a modern "Silk Road" harkening back to maritime and land-based trade routes of centuries past, is driven by commercial considerations. They have rejected assertions that it is also meant to expand Beijing's global influence.

"Rather, the investments appear to generate political influence, stealthily expand China's military presence and create an advantageous strategic environment in the region," it said.

China's foreign ministry rejected the findings, saying in a statement that Belt and Road is "essentially an economic cooperation initiative" promoting common development through infrastructure.

"China is not playing a geopolitical game," it said.

While there's no official policy document linking Belt and Road to China's national security interests, Chinese analysts have written that developing the programme and pursuing Chinese security are "intimately linked," the report said. The analysts don't represent official thinking but the authors believe what they say could influence decision-makers promoting the Belt and Road Initiative.

"Many of these observers recognize that a network of maritime logistics hubs throughout the Indo-Pacific, including ports, has the potential to change the region's strategic landscape, and several explicitly describe the role of infrastructure investment in Chinese grand strategy," the report said.

The projects shared characteristics that, taken together, pointed to China's security intent, the report said. These include being in strategic locations such as entrances to the contested South China Sea, in an apparent effort by Beijing to ease its worries about energy imports and potential blockades.

The port projects involve dual civilian-military use, Communist Party influence through the involvement of Chinese state-owned companies and control through equity stakes or long-term leases and a lack of transparency and expected profitability, it said.

Peter Cai, a fellow at Australia's Lowy Institute think tank who has studied Belt and Road, said he was somewhat skeptical about claims China was using port projects to advance military goals, given the difficulty of coordinating so many different investments, some of which might involve "independent actors."

However, he said it's clear China's political influence would expand over countries it connects with.

The new links will increase economic activity, which means "you're going to have economic influence and we all know that economic influence easily translates into political leverage and power," Cai said.

One of the most controversial projects is in Sri Lanka, where the government signed a 99-year lease agreement for the unprofitable Hambantota Port, located along a busy Indian Ocean shipping lane, along with land to develop a free-trade zone, to a Chinese-controlled company, in a deal opposed by neighboring residents and monks.

"China appears to have established financial leverage over Sri Lanka through investment in alleged vanity projects" worth billions of dollars signed as Beijing courted the country's previous president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, the report said. Debt levels for those projects prevented his successor from extricating the country from the deals and pivoting Sri Lanka away from China's influence, it said.

Never heard of C4ADS before, looks like they're offering a freebie for exposure. Their report [Harbored Ambitions.pdf]

Watching a program on the China Nepal Economic corridor and all sorts of fantastic questions & speculations being voiced by a panel of full bore analysts

Lhasa - Kathmandu - maybe further south by rail

- Is China trying to get into India. Will CNEC be an alternate route to CPEC, if the link from Kathmandu terminates in Calcutta. CPEC despite full Pak mil support will be very difficult to secure due to internal security dynamics in Pakistan. The speculation is CPEC won't take off despite best efforts.

- Is China going to allow people to people contact between Tibet and further beyond. China coming to India's border has traditionally been to isolate Tibet from the south.

- It's only about promoting Chinese economic hegemony and should be resisted