Three members of the 500 home run club are up for election to the Hall of Fame this year — at first base alone. Mark McGwire is back on the ballot, as is Rafael Palmeiro, and they are joined by newcomer Frank Thomas among 11 first base candidates for induction to Cooperstown next summer.
— Who else is eligible?

Who belongs in the Hall? Here’s a look at the candidates.

Note: All Wins Above Replacement (WAR) figures are from baseball-reference.com

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1

of 11

Jeff Bagwell

Year on ballot: 4th

Votes last year: 59.6%

Pro: 1994 National League MVP, four-time All-Star, one Gold Glove, three Silver Sluggers, 1991 National League Rookie of the Year. Career .408 on-base percentage and .540 slugging percentage — .948 OPS ranks 21st all time. Over span of his career (1991-2005), only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez had a higher aggregate WAR, while only Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro and Ken Griffey had more home runs, and only Palmeiro had more RBIs. Three 40-homer seasons, two-time 30-30 club member. Eight straight 30-homer seasons.
Con: Had teammates who used drugs. Occasionally had ugly beard. Never led league in triples. Ummm…

Verdict: Bagwell’s exclusion from the Hall of Fame to date is a sign of the utter paranoia among the electorate about inducting anyone with even the most circumstantial of ties to performance-enhancing drugs, even though the Hall is rife with amphetamine users. There’s no concrete reason to keep him out.

2

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Sean Casey

Year on ballot: 1st

Pro: Three-time All-Star. Went 9-for-17 with two homers in 2006 World Series. Career .302 batting average. Two 99-RBI seasons. Very nice guy who was nicknamed “The Mayor,” which is a Hall of Fame-level nickname.

Con: Played from 1997-2008, during which time Carlos Pena, distinctly a non-Hall of Famer, had a 17.9-16.3 WAR advantage — and Pena did not debut until 2001. Led league in one offensive category, one time, and it was GIDP.

Verdict: The “CON” section above might be the meanest thing anyone has ever had to say about Casey. He’s just not a Hall of Famer, though.

Con: Only six 20-home run seasons, including one 30-homer season, which even for someone in a low-power era is somewhat underwhelming. Career WAR of 37.5 from 1969-87 lower than 38.8 posted by Brian Downing from 1973-87, not to mention Willie Randolph’s 51.4 from 1975-87 or Chet Lemon’s 50.7 over that same stretch.

Verdict: Darrell Evans and Keith Hernandez have to be wondering what Garvey is doing on the Expansion Era ballot ahead of them. A lot of people would be happy if Garvey made it, but he’d also become one of the go-to guys for the “If Player X is in the Hall, how can you keep Player Y out?” arguments.

4

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Don Mattingly

Year on ballot: 15th

Votes last year: 13.2%

Pro: 1985 American League MVP, six-time All-Star, nine Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers. Career .307 batting average and .471 slugging percentage. Three 200-hit seasons, three 30-homer seasons. Possibly the best hitter alive from 1985-87. Career numbers strikingly similar across the board to Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett. World-class mustache would look great on plaque. Never struck out more than 43 times in a season — had 588 career walks and 444 strikeouts.

Verdict: Nobody questions whether Mattingly had Hall of Fame talent. It’s a matter of how long he displayed it. He’s unfortunate that the last three years of his career, 1993-95, which were really something of a renaissance, coincided with players like Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas becoming superstars at his position. Won’t be voted in by the writers, will be an interesting case for a veterans committee down the road.

5

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Fred McGriff

Year on ballot: 5th

Votes last year: 20.7%

Pro: Five-time All-Star, three Silver Sluggers, .509 career slugging percentage, hit 30 home runs 10 times. Known to an entire generation for his appearance in the Tom Emanski defensive drills video ads. Nicknamed Crime Dog. Led American League in home runs in 1989 and National League in 1992. From 1986-2004, only Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, and Ken Griffey Jr. hit more home runs.

Con: Never finished in top three in MVP voting. Posted 52.5 WAR during his career, lower than John Olerud’s 57.4 total from 1989-2004 and Will Clark’s 56.4 from 1986-2000. Never hit 40 home runs in a season.

Verdict: Could probably be described as his generation’s Tony Perez, who is in the Hall of Fame despite many believing that he does not belong. Remarkably consistent, but not consistently remarkable. Not quite.

6

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Mark McGwire

Year on ballot: 8th

Votes last year: 16.9%

Pro: Ranks 10th all time with 583 home runs. 12-time All-Star, one Gold Glove, three Silver Sluggers, 1987 American League Rookie of the Year. Twice led league in on-bace percentage, four times led league in slugging percentage. Four-time home run king, including then-record 70 in 1998. Four straight 50-homer seasons, and 11 career 30-homer seasons. Career batting average one point higher than Reggie Jackson.

Con: One-dimensional player whose one dimension, power, was admittedly boosted with chemical help. Career batting average one point higher than Ozzie Smith.

Verdict: Depends entirely how you feel about that chemical stuff. McGwire’s vote total has gone down each year since he reached a peak of 23.7% in 2010. So, it’s probably not happening. Should it? McGwire’s career was played entirely before steroid testing came into the game. There’s an argument to be made. Punt to an appeals court, better known as a special committee in another decade or two.

7

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Rafael Palmeiro

Year on ballot: 4th

Votes last year: 8.8%

Pro: One of four members of both the 500 home run and 3,000 hit clubs, along with Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Eddie Murray. Four-time All-Star, three Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers.

Con: Never finished higher than fifth in an MVP vote, and arguably was never even the best player on his own team. Won one Gold Glove at first base in a season where he played only 28 games there, and was actually the Silver Slugger winner at designated hitter. Oh, yeah, and that whole thing where he went to Congress and wagged his finger talking about how he’d never do drugs, then he tested positive and got suspended for doing drugs.

Con: “Gather ‘round, children, and let me tell you about baseball in my day, when there were players like Greg Maddux, and Miguel Cabrera, and Ken Griffey Jr. …” How long would it take before “Richie Sexson” was named in that list?

Verdict: Maybe the Brewers can make that plaque in honor of Sexson’s career peak there from 2000-03.

9

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J.T. Snow

Year on ballot: 1st

Pro: Six Gold Gloves. Career .327 playoff hitter. Led National League in sacrifice flies in 2000. Played in San Francisco at the height of the Steroid Era, but never hit more than 28 home runs in a season.

Con: Never hit more than 28 home runs in a season. Never made an All-Star team. Received MVP votes once. Lower career WAR than John Jaha.

Verdict: Snow was an excellent first baseman. He has a lot to be proud of about his career. He is not a Hall of Famer.

10

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Frank Thomas

Year on ballot: 1st

Pro: Ranks 18th all time with 521 home runs. Two-time American League MVP, five-time All-Star. Four Silver Sluggers, led league in OPS four times. Career .301 hitter with on-base percentage of .419, and .555 slugging percentage. Five 40-homer seasons. One of 10 players in the 500 home run club with more career walks than strikeouts, along with Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, Rafael Palmeiro, and Gary Sheffield. Arguably the greatest hitter that the White Sox, one of the American League’s original franchises, have ever had. And, if you’re into the whole steroid angle, the only player who actually agreed to be interviewed for the Mitchell Report.

Con: Caught stealing on 23 of 55 career attempts, which is a pretty lousy rate. Has two first names, and there’s that saying about not trusting such people – and it turns out that even though Thomas claims to have spent his entire career in the American League, he hit 29 of his home runs for the Toronto Blue Jays – a Canadian team.

Verdict: If Thomas doesn’t get in, the system is broken.

11

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Dmitri Young

Year on ballot: 1st

Pro: Two-time All-Star, 2007 National League Comeback Player of the Year, five-time .300 hitter. Hall of Fame plaque with “DA MEAT HOOK” on it would make up for the failure of Richie Sexson and the “BIG SEXY” campaign. Proved that you could be an All-Star while looking like this. Posted a .909 OPS in a season where he struck out 130 times.

Con: Never hit 30 home runs in a season, which is not going to get you to Cooperstown as a player who was primarily a first baseman/DH – even Edgar Martinez had one season where he hit 37, and he led the league in on-base percentage three times. Lower career WAR (12.1) than Nick Punto (14.8).

Verdict: No, although it’s nice to have Young on the ballot to remember that his career was pretty fun.