I honestly can't figure out the market's response to the China data... it all seems pretty encouraging and the market's reaction is to trend sideways and lose a little ground...

Sometimes I wonder if short sellers are dumping stock right after good news hits the markets to kill off a rally...

Commenter

Seriously...

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 2:30PM

When are they going to create an ETF indexed against the average weather temperatures in Australia. Sure it'll only go up by a few % each 5 years or so, but the way things are going it would be good defensive asset for all portfolios.

Commenter

gratorn

Location

MEL

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 2:29PM

When the herd is feeling bullish, there is so much liquidity in the markets and its an excellent time to off load and take profits.

Commenter

hammer

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 2:07PM

Not only is the foot long Subway only 11 inches, but the first inch either end is nothing more than a bit of tapered bread roll, devoid of meaningful filling.

The Subway roll..........a prime example of what's wrong with most business models these days.

Commenter

4500

Location

The New Black

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 1:33PM

Maybe subway is subtly doing something about the fatties who eat at their establishment, better than a fattie tax . JMO

Commenter

subway the place to go to eat less

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 2:42PM

C;mon fellas who amongst us has not told similar lie ?.

Commenter

Another Grump

Location

Melb

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 2:42PM

""For the first half of this year the economy will continue to be fairly solid, but China's trend growth is still set to slow down."

Uh oh... what will that do to house prices?

Short FMG again.

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 1:19PM

Opto,

it'd be better if you have these retrospectives each quarter and try to reduce it to the most outrageous and funniest remarks. Perhaps you should also include ourtrageously optimistic remarks, like iron ore and FMG returning to $170 and $7 respectively. And I'll try harder to supply an outrageous one liner - I don't think I got even one into your list.

I do not trust the Chinese, 'truth' is a variable directly related to their self interest. How believable are their data. Most of the experts and high position holders within China are government appointees and owe their job and future well being to the oligarchy. Is the data capable of being independently analysed or audited outside China.

Commenter

Another Grump

Location

Melb

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:05PM

Another grump, doesn't this happen already! they may produce the goods (rubbish) that the West uses but the raw material comes from outside China. When their data comes out don't Western nation that supply the raw materials know if their numbers are doctored or not?

Commenter

surely someone is checking the Chinese data, surely!!!!!!!!!

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:19PM

And the "West" is transparent ? Sometimes what you really know relates to who you know. Perhaps we get the highs and lows because everyone is always fully informed.

Commenter

PDJ

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:20PM

After the GFC the US is the country you shouldn't trust, not China.

Commenter

street professor

Location

sydney

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:29PM

"GDP figures are “man-made” and therefore unreliable, Li said. When evaluating Liaoning’s economy, he focuses on three figures: 1) electricity consumption, which was up 10 percent in Liaoning last year; 2) volume of rail cargo, which is fairly accurate because fees are charged for each unit of weight; and 3) amount of loans disbursed, which also tends to be accurate given the interest fees charged. By looking at these three figures, Li said he can measure with relative accuracy the speed of economic growth. All other figures, especially GDP statistics, are “for reference only,” he said smiling. "

Interesting that in 2012 electricity demand in China rose 5.5%, al ot less than the "official" GDP figure.

When will the other 500M Chinese be able to see a doctor?

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:31PM

I echo your sentiments about reliability of data Grump, however I think it is very important to distinguish the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from the Chinese people in these comments.

I'm not sure I would be comfortable with foreigners tarring all Australians with the same brush as Gillard's Federal Government.

Commenter

Seriously...

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:32PM

Did George, Tony and John show you all of the material and documentation before they entered into bilateral military action against a sovereign state?

Have you ever written any report based on a wealth of information and manipulated it to support your view?

Chinas economic reports are no different.

Commenter

Opinion Only

Location

Melbourne

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:41PM

Wasn't it Tom Albanese who said that Australia is becoming a sovereign risk? The same block who mines for diamonds in Zimbabwe? It now looks as if sovereign risk wasn't a risk at all, the risk was the Tom was in charge of the cheque book.

Commenter

Richo

Location

Melbourne

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 11:28AM

He was handed boom prices for iron ore by the Chinese and he's suddenly a genius.

You really should buy a watch, Major. Cant see how a few minutes will hurt this time.

The bored of directors will accept...

Commenter

Snidery Mark

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:22PM

Would the bored directors care to make a resolution that the deadline will be enforced more strictly in future weeks?

A very 'dubious' (but surprisingly engaged) character politely enquires

Commenter

Not so Seriously...

Location

nowhere special

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 1:28PM

OK then, cap'n, how's this?

Dear Major Major,

Should you transgress the strict policies of the World Famous ASX tipping, you shall be keel-hauled and slapped with a fish of your choosing.

Can't get much fairer than that.

And... despite your claim in the alternative, you are very Serious about winning this, despite my attempts at loopholing.

Like it, Seriously..., like it. A bit of competition never hurt anyone (excepting Lance Armstrong, etc.). All reps.

Commenter

Snidery Mark

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 2:56PM

Seriously, you've got to learn the art of grovelling - it's the foundation to success in any hierarchy, military or professional

I'm ready for my herring....

Commenter

Catch 22

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 3:40PM

Had a chuckle at the news this morning - Big fella at Rio misplaces some miniscule amount (Read: $ 14 billion) and gets the push.

News insisted on adding, "he didna get the usual pay-out or golden handshake..."

Here's me thinking, "How noble of him."

Then they added, "but he will get options valued at $ 16 million...."

D'oh!

Commenter

Snidery Mark

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:43AM

Oh dear someone has a bee in their bonnet. The AORD is back at 2005 levels ie it's gone nowhere for 7 years.

Pollyannas look at 6 months and crow even thought they were long well before that. What about the lost 7 years?

Short banks.

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:22AM

Dividends Allan dividends! 7 years of dividends that you conveniently and constantly omit for all of the better stocks!

Commenter

Opto

Location

Hi

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:36AM

Opto, have to agree with you. We retired several years ago and have seen dividend after dividend fund our retirement. Sometimes difficult when coy's drop their divedend levels (eg Leightons) and deposit rates go down however by keeping an eye on our investments we could not be happier.

Commenter

Retd1

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:58AM

Aaaahh The climate change skeptics argument: you take the high of the previous cycle and the low of the next cycle for "proof". LOL! Any reason you arbitrarily chose 2005? BTW, since Dec 2002 (10 years), it has risen 4.6%pa. Add divs and franking and that's about 9%pa. But that's boring I know .....

Commenter

Allan's Alter Ego

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 11:01AM

Someone I know an (a very talented, consistent and contrarian, but above all wealthy) investor who has CBA as one of the best shorts in a long time. Prior to me learning this a few people had told me they'd piled in to CBA. How can CBA be at all time highs when loans are declining, defaults are increasing unemployment's sky rocketing, debt are at max possible, housing's on it's way to halving and wages are declining...Boral sack 700 and the market sees this as good news?....Mad, mad, mad market.

Commenter

JohnB

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 11:03AM

Nope. Most companies suspended dividends to pay down some of their enormous debts.

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 11:16AM

Allan - Some companies not most. suspended dividends. Dividend returns were still there from a lot of companies.

Commenter

Retd1

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:01PM

JohnB CBA's price (like the other banks)has been driven by a hunt for a decent dividend yield in a maket that hasn't moved all that much in recent years.

This has been exagerated by the recent interest rate cuts and the likelihood of further cuts later this year... essentially retail investors have piled into the banks for yield not worrying about the possibility of a loss of capital or whether they are getting value for money (many retail investors have bought on the back of little more than the media focus on bank div yields in recent months).

Profits aren't likely to crash despite weakness in employment in the south- eastern Australian states though a modest increase provisions for non performing loans is probable. The reality is our banks haven't gotten carried away with their lending as much as US and European banks due to funding contraints. That said, I'd prefer to be buying the banks shortly before their next dividend goes ex in mid Feb (check the dates) rather than now due to likely falls on the back of US buget negotiations.

Commenter

Seriously...

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:16PM

Nope, check the indexes I posted earlier. You think companies paid dividends while they were losing money?

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:21PM

The bonanza returns the led to the GFC were built on debt. Those days are gone. The debt is still there.

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:34PM

"The reality is our banks haven't gotten carried away with their lending as much as US and European banks"

With 53% of their loan books in residential property they are highly exposed to the falling property market. You know the market that's in the biggest bubble Australia has ever seen.

Look out below!

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 1:13PM

In Australia a company can ONLY pay dividends out of profits.

Commenter

Snidery Mark

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 1:20PM

@Seriously...

Yes that's what I guessed, chasing dividends. It looks great at the moment. I think there's a massive correction coming though and all those retail investors aren't known for knowing when to sell. There will be tears when the drops more than wipe out their dividends. I don't see that there's been responsible lending. LVR means little when the "V" is hyper inflated. Wages are also under pressure from all angles as is employment. This was always going to happen and is starting now.

Commenter

JohnB

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 1:56PM

"In Australia a company can ONLY pay dividends out of profits."

What are profits? REITs boosted their share prices and their executive remuneration on profits from mark to market valuations that were more than double what they should have been.

That's why REIT share prices have gone backwards 20 years.

The new test for paying dividends introduced in 2010 doesn't fix that.

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 2:02PM

Allan kindly note a REIT is a trust not a company...

In some cases REITs are stapled securities and in loss making situations they simply issue the distributions (which can include capital) from the trust component(s)...

Commenter

Seriously...

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 3:00PM

Ditto for companies. They still can and do pay dividends from borrowing. The Corporations Act doesn't prohibit it.

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 3:39PM

Pollyannas bidding up the market. Get ready with your shorts again.

No mention of FMG today? Oh and btw it was at the same price on 4/6 ie it's gone nowhere. The following idexes have gone nowhere since

The analysts have a problem for every solution. The so called logic given on why RIO went up is just so much guessing. The only thing it shows is that the market does not follow any sort of logic that can be expressed sensibly. Have look at the history of the fiscal cliff announcements the forecast effect and the actual effect (ASX not US) - virtually no correlation and as a result the correlation coefficient at the lower end of the scale. Analyst = expert in 20:20 hindsight.

Commenter

Another Grump

Location

Melb

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:06AM

LOLOLOL 0.1%. Down tomorrow. Spain, Italy, UK credit crises to come. Oh and the Australian residential property crash to look forward to. Enjoy! 20/6 The Americans introduced QE 1 QE 2 and Twist and we introduced a Flood levy a mining tax and a carbon tax and now our market is 43% behind the Dow. What's going on ?? 21/6 Glenn Stevens has told you, Australians have faux wealth generated by debt and bidding up house prices. A classic house of cards. Look out below! 21/6 I saw Bulls, many Bulls. Red bulls, brown bulls, big bulls and small bulls. Last seen in a large truck headind to the local abbatoir. 25/6 Stocks are still to expensive to buy at this moment. I am personally waiting for around a 30% drop from today's values before even considering investing any money in the stock market; whereas for the real estate I'm waiting for the 60% drop (correction) before purchasing even one brick 25/6 Another 700 points down and I MIGHT consider buying something. But like all current markets the ASX is well over valued. Not quite as bad as the housing market however. At least bank stocks pay a dividend! 25/6 Gee BHP down 34% this year. I thought there was a resources boom. Must've been cancelled. 25/6 Where is good news going to come from though? The only way I can see Europe resolved is if Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugul leave the Euro... 26/6 Can't see us finishing positively today with further downgrades luming large and any positive outcome of the euro summit very weak. 27/6 The last race is scratched. There is too much monopoly money on the track. Several prominent jockeys have already been injured including three men and one woman. 27/6 Cheers

Commenter

Optimist

Location

Hi Looking Back to June 12' Downbeat 6

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:59AM

You have made your point optimist, now move on please.

Commenter

Another Grump

Location

Melb

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:19AM

Will do !

Commenter

Opto

Location

Hi Grumpy

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:27AM

Who the hell would want to be holding stocks come 4 pm tomorrow afternoon ? Good luck, you'll need it.14/6We seem to be ONE DAY from disaster, each and every week. We are not out the woods yet and now the wolf pack is coming.18/6The dreamers deserve to own stock at this point in time. Investors who believe in fairy tales will buy your shares in a falling market. 18/6So when the market drops 2% in a day they call it Panic Selling. What do they call it when it jumps 2% in a day? 18/6Panic buying ? 18/6A dead cat bounce. 18/6Your story headed “Investor doubts ----“ 8.33 AM contains the interesting words “investors in Europe and the US fled on fears the crisis----“. Considering they were “fleeing’ it must have been a very orderly affair as the DOW ended down 0.2%, Nasdaq up 0.78%, S and P up 0.14%, FTSE up 0.22%, DAC up 0.3% Crickey! Truly the most orderly fleeing in history 19/6This market is just pathetic. 19/6I see BULLS, many many many Bulls...Big bulls, small bulls, red bulls and brown bulls. 19/6That sounds like a lot of bull to me. 19/6I smell And see Bulls Hit. 19/6Optimist I don't always agree with your analysis but I have to say your posts are refreshing amongst all the doom and gloom. 20/6-Thanks!Yes, I think Plato summed it up pretty well: "Democracy is a charming form of government, full of variety and disorder, and dispensing a sort of equality to equals and unequal alike." 20/6Economy grinding to a halt: Dead cat bounce. 20/6

Commenter

Optimist

Location

Hi Looking Back to June 12' Downbeat 5

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:53AM

Nice work Opto ;-D

Commenter

El Toro

Location

Barcelona

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 11:07AM

Tip of the day. Get out now, while the getting is good.7/6A "rally" anticipating a big news will end up in tears. The bulls who entered the market late yesterday were trapped. Today 8/6Forget those retirement plans folks - in a few years time there will be nothing left in your superannuation 'nest egg'. 8/6You are dead right. The "Buy & Hold" investment strategy nowadays is gone for good. 8/6I will once again , for the fiftieth time, remind viewers, that the cause of the global stress is MASSIVE DEBT, 8/6The Sky Is Falling! Enjoy the long weekend, peeps. 8/6I warned the Bulls yesterday. 8/6Can the sharemarket be closed for a couple of weeks to give everybody a break from the constant barrage of gloom and doom? 11/Or !!! A change in Government !! 11/6Yep, the next big correction will be down to the 3000-3500 range as the property bubble bursts. 11/62 great reasons for "shares to rise". The power of dreams. 13/6The whole house of cards called the world economy is about to come down, and what does our index do? It moves up and down like an ECG, as if the patient is going to walk out of intensive care sometime soon. I'm going to post the biggest "I told you so" in a few weeks.14/6I smell the blood of les tricoteuses 14/6

Commenter

Optimist

Location

Hi Looking Back to June 12' Downbeat 4

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:50AM

Optimist, I love a trip down memory lane as much as the next optimist however last year was a year that many investors wish they could forget... how about we leave the mountains of quotes in the past and look forward to a more lucrative 2013

Commenter

Seriously...

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:04AM

Seriously...I think we should let Optimist enjoy his "I told you so" moment.

1 out of 1. That means he has a 100% success rate. Sounds like a trend :)

Commenter

cranberry

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:25AM

I love... the next optimist... many investors... forget... the mountains... and look forward to... more... 2013. 18/1

My paraphrasing still needs work.

Commenter

Snidery Mark

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:36AM

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it't the ASX ! 6/6Ha you think you stocked up at the bottom? Hilarious. 6/6Yep. The Bulls are on the track. Some "late comers" are being herded into the corral. Once they are in there, they get trapped. Then they get slaughtered. 7/6I love your sarcasm 7/6Coming soon..BULLS HIT! 7/6What's happened? I went to hospital on Monday and got back this morning and everyone is smiling. Has Greece and Italy and Spain paid their account? 7/6Stop asking questions. The world economy has been fixed, and you just have to learn to trust our leaders. Now get back online and start buying stock. 7/6No you must just have had an Abbottectomy. The World always looks better when you get rid of one of them! 7/6Just amazing what a shot of hopium will do. Unfortunately like most addicts after multiple injections the end result is usually death.7/6What's the point? The World's ending on July 1. Mister Abbott told me so. 7/6I'd prefer less sarcasm towards Tony Abbott.7/6 Tony AbbottNor with you. "This way boys" said Major Optimist, leading his men over the edge of a cliff. 7/6

Commenter

Optimist

Location

Hi Looking Back to June 12' Downbeat 3

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:47AM

Guys, you have a few minutes left to dump your stock. Overnight, investors from other time zones will drive the Dow and other indices down into the ground, and tomorrow you'll wake up to a new dawn. 4/6I'm buying, I'm buying...a latte; forget the stocks. With a rate cut later today around 25 points, that really tells me...panic is in the air. By end of July...real bargains, crash is inevitable. 5/6ASX is still 30% overpriced. 5/6On what basis is the ASX 30% over priced? Please explain. It is currently slightly below trend.5/6Start @ 1985 and see what you get. I'd say @ 2800 is the right level. 5/6The good days are back. The only way from here is up! Joy to the world. 5/6Meow !!! Bounce. Meow !!! Bounce. 5/6So the cat is alive? 5/6I think it's just air being squeezed from itis lungs on impact, like an accordion. The cat is not alive. 5/6SELL! SELL! SELL!That's all I can hear in this building. My clients are all hiding like frightened rabbits in their burrows 5/6We should be quite safe from the ire of the short-sellers until 2:30 pm 5/6Funny it started climbing at 2.30 short sellers must be at lunch. Ouch buying later on! 5/6Kissing the trend Goodbye...... A chance to liquidate all longs.5/6Those who think they buy "bargains" caught their falling swords - now people in their right mind using selling opportunity. 5/6Do Not Worry about those tiny icebergs !! Full steam ahead..5/6

Commenter

Optimist

Location

Hi Looking Back to June 12' Downbeat 2

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:44AM

The downbeat & funny :-Reinvest the money you lost last week and buy some more! 4/6/12If you lost it, how can you re invest it ? Talk about gluttons for punishment. 4/6Nice buying quality stocks today. Optimist where are you? 4/6Without a blanket shortselling ban there will be carnage 4/6My gut feeling tells me the market will recover most of its loss today and will resume its march down towards fair value tomorrow. 4/6No wonder Casino's aren't doing so well nowadays. 4/6Capitalism teetering on the brink of destruction. How about that Karl Marx was right after all. 4/6My prediction is that the dollar will be below 95 cents by the end of the month and the all ords down to around 3500 points. My best advice is to buy drugs and handguns. But she'll be right, unless all of your super is in shares, then, basically, you're stuffed and will only be able to retire when you are older than Prince Phillip. 4/6UH OH! Here it comes. A few of us here been calling this and its down down down. 4/6I feel so secure knowing we have the World's Best Treasurer and an Economy which is the envy of the world. 4/6Q: Cannot figure where all of the money has gone? A: Short selling 4/6

Commenter

Optimist

Location

Hi Looking Back to June 12' Downbeat 1

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:41AM

These are some remarks from back there in June around the low of 4th June. My point is that folk unfortunately quickly loose rational and follow the herd mentality when distressed. There were present at that time buy signals on many good stocks and most especially the better dividend paying ones. It would have been better guys not to go through the pain yesterday, again! I can understand though your anxiety at the rate at which problems are observed and dealt with. 5/6 More good news will surely give stocks a boost 6/6 Lucky I stocked up the other day 6/6 Yeah me too... the timing was perfect, good to see the rebound with more good news added by the hour.6/6 Collective panic leads to collective distress and is simply not rational. A rush for the exits simply destroys shareholder value for you all. 8/6 Amazing how depressed prices can get in the dearth of buyers. Just a little negative news constantly flowing pushing downwards. 11/6 Nice to see a few rational heads prevailing today. 12/6 THE BULLS ARE ON THE TRACK ! 7/6 BUY AT DISCOUNT, will not last, buy now to clean up next month, AN OPPORTUNITY NOT TO BE MISSED. 4/6 Last chance to stock up at these great rates before the rally starts. 14/6 Marvellous headlines today let's see retail sales tumble, $ can't hold parity, slashed Spanish debt rating, general disinterest in market, Italy's borrowing costs poised to jump, a tale of woe from Bernie. Hard to see at times isn't it where a green shoot is going to come from, but from somewhere it will. 14/6 You can never see through the fog when the markets bottom, or to quote Warren Buffett "you pay a high price for cheery consensus

Commenter

Optimist

Location

Hi Looking Back to June 12' Upbeat

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:37AM

"loose rational"

huh?

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:25AM

No as you know Allan but unfortunately for them a lot of other people did back there around May and June last

Commenter

Opto

Location

Hi

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:01PM

"My point is that folk unfortunately quickly loose rational and follow the herd mentality when distressed."

Yep optomists are distressed by the thought of missing out and are piling into a market that has gone nowhere for 5 years.

Commenter

Allan

Location

Prahran

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:32PM

Do you know nothing else but tram-lining.

Commenter

Opto

Location

Hi

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 2:32PM

Can I join the comp at 4780 please

Commenter

Fletch the Diplomat

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:33AM

Taken and welcome. 4 weeks to go for round 1 - so you still have a chance to topple Seriously.

Commenter

Snidery Mark

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 10:00AM

Cheers Snidery...

Commenter

Fletch the Diplomat

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 12:00PM

10.10am and down we go

Commenter

Jonaze

Location

Sydney

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:24AM

Just the coffee shop dip. Wait till the bistros open !

Commenter

Another Grump

Location

Melb

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:33AM

today marks applications close for TEN's retail rights offer... will be interesting to see if the stock tanks next week as expected without the underwriters in the market propping up the share price to limit their take up of the retail offer...

Commenter

Seriously...

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 8:59AM

Morning all, ready for another day on fantasy island.China data at 1:00 pm - big deal, the market has a mind of its own and like the indians in the film The Searchers seem to be contrarian.Anyway enjoy the ride.Now Mr Snidery, I am determined to top the list on the prestigious tipping contest so here goes -- ASX200 @ 4765 CoB.

Commenter

Another Grump

Location

Melb

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 8:51AM

snide I'll have 4785 for the comp

Commenter

Seriously...

Date and time

January 18, 2013, 9:01AM

I'll slot in between you two with a 4775, for no other reason than to be irritating. (Must keep up appearances, y'know).