tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9098199091488943582016-09-08T05:34:11.879+01:00De civitate sabermetricarumfra paolo's old-fashioned sabermetric observations on the Detroit Tigers and baseball past and presentPaul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.comBlogger214125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-4112412171282105762015-10-24T04:29:00.000+01:002015-10-24T04:29:25.907+01:00Palmer on DiPS Pete Palmer <a href="http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2015/04/01/interview-pete-palmer/">was interviewed in April of this year</a>, and was asked about Voros McCracken's Defence-Independent Pitching Statistics. Palmer is arguably the most important sabermetrician OF ALL TIME. Certainly his only rival is going to be Bill James, so reading Palmer's comments on DiPS theory, which James himself regarded as important, makes an interesting comparison and contrast. <br /><p>James referred to McCracken's work in the <i>New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract</i> (p 885): <blockquote>3. This knowledge is significant, very useful. 4. I feel stupid for not having realised this thirty years ago.</blockquote>Palmer, however, has a very different take on the matter. <br /><blockquote>I didn’t have a lot of faith in [DiPS]....[McCracken] said there wasn’t a great amount of correlation from season to season. But as I said, the variations due to chance and everything in sports, baseball in particular, is a lot higher than people think. Your average could drop 60 points from one year to the next, and it’s not really statistically significant because 500 at-bats isn’t that many at-bats to verify what your current batting average should be.</blockquote>Whether this opinion is rooted in statistical analysis or not, it does conform somewhat with the analysis provided in "Solving DiPS", a compilation of an on-line discussion which you can find a copy of <a href="http://saberarchive-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/media/solvingdips.pdf">here</a>. One key solution in "Solving DiPS" is that, given 700 Balls in Play, some 44 per cent of the outcomes are a consequence of random variance, the single largest factor. (Pitchers were assigned 28 per cent, fielding 17 per cent. Hold that thought for a moment.)<br /><p>I have seen it suggested that Palmer does not understand DiPS, which has become a tool for projecting a pitcher's future. But from the perspective of evaluating a pitcher's season, Palmer's lack of "faith" makes more sense. BABIP's variance is irrelevant, because it is in the nature of the game. What is important is to convert extra-base hits into singles, and singles into outs.<br /><blockquote>When you don’t look at walks and strikeouts and home runs, you’re actually minimizing a difference between a good pitcher and a bad pitcher. And therefore, the gap in that category is going to be artificially low because some of the factors that would make it higher are not counted.</blockquote>In other words, we shouldn't be surprised that pitchers appear to have limited or no control over the outcomes of balls in play. That has never been where the difference has been visible in the small sample size of a single season.<br /><p>Finally, to return to those percentages from "Solving DiPS", what might be surprising from the traditional reception of DiPS is that pitchers have <i>more</i> control over the outcome than fielders. So, again, perhaps we should be a bit more sceptical, like Pete Palmer, of those making grandiose claims for DiPS. Insofar as anything has control over the outcome of the batted ball, it is the pitcher. Random variance in its nature is uncontrolled.Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-47841110310937186212015-10-22T04:48:00.001+01:002015-10-22T04:48:19.864+01:00Oh, the HumanitiesAs I tweeted a week or so ago, this was a good season for the part of me that is a Tigers' fan to miss. I have been dealing with a return of my wife's cancer (the outlook is not great but, as the last lines of the original theatrical release of Blade Runner go, "I didn't know how long we had together... Who does?"), in addition to moving house (and changing countries). However, I accumulated a few bookmarks and other ideas to work through, especially now we can only watch other teams in the post-season. <br /><p>While I was busy, <a href="http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2015/05/do-defensive-statistics-overrate.html">a very important blog post was made back in May</a>. Phil Birnbaum, who is nothing if not insightful in writing about sabermetrics, announced that dWAR, a measure of fielding value, seemed to him to have a significant problem. Birnbaum proposed that dWAR inherently <i>overvalued</i> fielding. Birnbaum's argument is rooted in mathematical accuracy, so I don't feel confident trying to explain it. If you haven't read the post already, you should go to his blog to read how he explains it. <br /><p>However, his explanation boils down to three key points, if we focus on the effects: <br /><p>a) the runs allocated to the fielders under dWAR are too high, by an order of around fifty percent. (So a team dWAR of -40 is actually more like -20<br /><p>b) The cause of this is that when one assumes "certain balls in play are the same" (as one has to do with older baseball statistics) then the math sends all the credit to the fielders.<br /><p>c) <blockquote>"Observations are a combination of talent and luck. If you want to divide the observed balls in play into observed pitching and observed fielding, you're also going to have to divide the luck properly."</blockquote>Here, I think, we run into the problem of "All things being equal", or <a href="htts://www.brocku.ca/MeadPoject/Collingwood/1946_3.html">the distinction that the philosopher of history</a> <a href="http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/collingwood/"> R.G. Collingwood</a> made between meteorology and chemistry. It is an essential fact of human life that all things are NOT equal. People working in meteorology can collect observations of events, but cannot reproduce them at will, unlike people working in chemistry. By contrast, the historian can observe events, but they cannot create political or social crises at will, nor send qualified observers back into the past in order to collect the information needed to understand those events in the way scientists might send an expedition to view an eclipse or collect specimens. In scoring a baseball game, at best a sabermetrician can be a weatherman. <br /><p>One can take issue with the statement "the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria on 28 June 1914 triggered the First World War" as one of causality, but without doubt the shooting set off a diplomatic crisis that led to the war. More importantly, luck played a crucial role in the event because the Archduke's car came to a complete halt very close to where the "Yugoslav nationalist" Gavrilo Princip, had stationed himself. An earlier attempt to kill the Archduke in a moving car had failed. We have no idea whether Princip could have been successful if his targets had been in a moving car. So, what percentage of responsibility to the war do we assign to Princip, to the driver, to the governor of Bosnia at whose orders the driver stopped, to the Serbian officers who conspired to arm Princip, to the Archduke or to the general diplomatic situation? And any formula that did allocate "responsibility shares" to these people would be essentially an act of faith.<br /><p>Birnbaum went on to add some further details to his understanding in a threat on the blog of Tom Tango, the tremendously influential pseudonymous saberist. <a href="http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/are-current-methods-of-separating-fielding-from-pitching-doing-a-bad-job#9">In the comments section of Tango's thread on the post by Birnbaum</a>, Birnbaum suggested in one reply that it was just not possible for a system like Defensive Runs Saved or Ultimate Zone Rating to make distinctions about balls in play that could tell us something about the skill of the fielder.But before that <a href="http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/are-current-methods-of-separating-fielding-from-pitching-doing-a-bad-job#37">he stated that he wanted to assign the luck to the pitcher</a>. However, reading the comments there is to venture into a world where something like the Responsibility Shares is thought to be possible. Possibly, with enough computing power, such things can be made for evaluating baseball players. But I can't help but think the effect will be small. <br /><p>To reduce Birnbaum's position down, what he thinks is that about half of the dWAR effects at the team level need to be transferred from the fielder to the pitcher. Another way to think about it is that he wants a cap on the amount of Runs Allowed value distributed to the fielders. But this would also have effects on how we value players. A quick-and-dirty method would be to halve the UZR assigned to any player when calculating their WAR, although I suspect Birnbaum would object on the grounds that something true at the team level may not be true at the level of the individual player.Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-62978758306476082612015-04-20T21:30:00.000+01:002015-04-20T21:30:59.738+01:002015 Tigers' Series #4: potentes Cespedes Ave Yoenis! What do the two Tiger victories in the weekend series against the Chicago White Sox have in common? Home runs by <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cespeyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Yoenis Cespedes</a></strong>. They also have in common excellent pitching, from <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">David Price</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greensh02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Shane Greene</a></strong>. Meanwhile, Saturday's blow-out loss featured very poor pitching. Even the bullpen gave up three runs in the first two innings after <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Anibal Sanchez</a></strong> was knocked out of the game. Once again we see <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ausmubr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Brad Ausmus</a></strong> a bit reluctant to go the pen, although he may have been trying to eke out enough innings from Sanchez to keep some relievers in reserve for the series with the New York Yankees. <br /><p>Cespedes has now improved his Steamer projection to a wRC+ of 122, up three runs on what was forecast before the season. However, more importantly, shortstop <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/iglesjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jose Iglesias</a></strong> has raised his wRC+ projection to 96, from 81. Almost all of the projections for Tigers' hitters are up, but Iglesias' improvement is the most dramatic. Of course, the season is long, and much can go wrong between now and October. Iglesias fine start is based on an outrageously unsustainable BABIP of .459. (It is worth noting, however, that JD Martinez' BABIP is an equally implausible .212.) However, one can't take away those ten wins from the Tigers. The Tigers went 10-2 where pre-season projections implied a 7-5 or 6-6 record. Tigers' fans should be happy, and send positive feelings toward a team that is doing them proud.<br /><p>Numbers indicate what percent of a win a player added over the series with his bat, based on Run Expectancy and Leverage of plate appearances.<br /><pre>Player Win Value Added<br />Yoenis Cespedes .987<br />Jose Iglesias .407<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gosean01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Anthony Gose</a></strong> .183<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casteni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Nick Castellanos</a></strong> .163<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanja02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">James McCann</a></strong> .021<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rominan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Andrew Romine</a></strong> .000<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezhe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Hernan Perez</a></strong> -.005<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong> -.039<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisra01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Rajai Davis</a></strong> -.090<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=martivi01,martin011vic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Victor Martinez</a></strong> -.095<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/avilaal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Alex Avila</a></strong> -.127<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">J.D. Martinez</a></strong> -.323<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kinslia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Ian Kinsler</a></strong> -.523</pre>Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-36097607694647756832015-04-17T20:05:00.000+01:002015-04-17T20:05:05.202+01:00Octo LauriEIGHT AND ONE! Is this egg all over the faces of Tigers' sceptics like Baseball Prospectus' Sam Miller, who has mentioned in a couple of podcasts that he thinks the Tigers will escape the AL Central cellar by one spot? Or should we be more cautious and remember the old sage Aristotle's comment that "one swallow does not make a summer"? Let me line up a few mid-April thoughts as we still remind ourselves that it is a long season, and much can go right during it, as well as going wrong. <br /><p><b>The BIG MAN</b>: The Tigers are going to stand or fall by the production of <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong>. Last season he looked weak at times, like <a href="http://www.theoi.com/Gigante/GiganteAntaios.html">Antaeus</a> being lifted up by Hercules, but only for a moment. I have only been able to follow the games by GameDay Audio, but the sense I get is that he is still missing a bit of the power that made him the linch-pin of previous Tigers' teams. What we have at the moment is a Cabrera more akin to <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=martivi01,martin011vic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Victor Martinez</a></strong>, who is hitting hard line-drives for singles and doubles. If he can still hit for a high average with a goodly amount of gap power, he will remain the offensive force that the Tigers need batting in the third spot. I was optimistic from the first plate appearances in spring training that Cabrera would prove all those neo-sabermetric Cassandras wrong, and I remain so.<br /><p><b>The Rotation</b>: Like classic Dave Dombrowski teams, the Tigers are going to win with starting pitching. This was his strategy with the Florida Marlins in 1997, and it was what he was rebuilding in 2001, when he came north. Starting with the trade of <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fistedo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Doug Fister</a></strong> in November 2013, Mr Dombrowski began rebuilding the rotation on the fly. It seemed to me the trade for <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">David Price</a></strong> was not a short-term patch, but has long-term intent, as Mr Dombrowski is looking to sign him to the kind of contract <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Max Scherzer</a></strong> turned down. More importantly, after two starts it looks as if <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greensh02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Shane Greene</a></strong> is the real thing. However, I am slightly concerned by our Latin AS-Team of <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Anibal Sanchez</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simonal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Alfredo Simon</a></strong>. Sanchez' disastrous seventh inning on <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2015-04-13&team=Pirates&dh=0">13 April</a> reminded me that it is one of his characteristics, to lose it quite rapidly. I would like to see Simon pitch a few more DH games before I regard his starts with a degree of confidence. The big question, though, is whether a <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Justin Verlander</a></strong> start will be any better than a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2015-04-12&team=Tigers&dh=0&season=2015">Kyle Lobstein one</a>. Lobstein did well enough for the Tigers to win the game, but those are games that must be won by the bat, an uncertain hope still, even with a return to fearsome form by Miguel Cabrera.<br /><p><b>Cheetahs Prosper</b>: <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ausmubr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Brad Ausmus</a></strong>' decision-making in these early games suggest that he plans to make full use of his speedier chaps this season. We have seen some benefit with <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gosean01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Anthony Gose</a></strong> in centre-field, but the running game is a chancer's hope. So far, the Tigers are on a hot streak, but <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2015-04-10&team=Tigers&dh=0&season=2015">Gose was caught stealing</a> in the first inning on 10 April, an incident followed by two singles that might have given the Tigers an early lead in a game they never looked like losing — but we didn't know that at the time. As long as Ausmus' decision to run is rewarded with success, I'm happy to see the Go-Go Tigers. But I reserve the right to say indiscriminate basepath larceny will only lead us to remember that crime does not pay.<br /><p><b>Oh What a Relief It Isn't</b>: The Tigers have been fortunate that their bats have carried them through two of the three series they have played so far. In Pittsburgh, playing by the National League's primitive arrangements of letting the pitcher bat (my goodness, but Dan Dickerson went on and on about that to the point of making me reconsider my On the Road to Damascus conversion to the Designated Hitter a couple of years ago), Manager Ausmus used a grand total of four relief pitchers in three games, none of which was settled by more than two runs. Meanwhile, Manager Hurdle used EIGHT. Ausmus' reluctance to go to the bullpen in high-leverage games makes me think that he believes he'll find little relief there. Which is fine, until we get to later in the season, when the rotation may be a bit more ragged after throwing so many pitches. <br /><p>With eight wins banked, the Tigers have made dramatic improvements to their playoff odds. But some of the same questions remain. The advantage gained is still dependent on things like whether Verlander can improve on last season, how much petrol the bullpen has stocked up to pour out in high-leverage situations and how efficiently Cabrera and the Latin legal firm of Martinez, Martinez & Cespedes can deliver runs. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-33443616119860649802015-03-21T21:26:00.000+00:002015-03-21T21:26:18.425+00:00Looking Forward to... AL Central RelieversThe Tigers' bullpen was possibly the biggest cause of their difficult path to the AL Central championship in 2014, and to their ultimate flop in 2013. Mr Dombrowski, however, seems to have concluded that new faces aren't going to change much, so the Tigers go into 2015 with largely the same cast that proved wanting in 2014. One major change is the addition of <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gorzeto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Tom Gorzelanny</a></strong>. Given the comment about <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ausmubr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Brad Ausmus</a></strong>' trusting his veterans in <a href="http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/2015/03/19/tigers-lefty-relievers-spots-rotation/25019105/">this article</a>, it seems likely that Gorzelanny is going to be given the first crack at being the premier left-hander. <i></i><br /><p>For the purpose of measuring relative strengths in the bullpen, I have selected four relievers to represent each team, guessing at which four will pitch the highest-leverage innings. Using the same method I used in the post on rotations, here are the respective quartets:<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wufDoTWSVJo/VQ2qA6xfB2I/AAAAAAAAAMU/-JAK0wSQapo/s1600/15ALCentralRelief.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wufDoTWSVJo/VQ2qA6xfB2I/AAAAAAAAAMU/-JAK0wSQapo/s400/15ALCentralRelief.gif" /></a></div>In neither of the <a href="http://cityofsabermetrics.blogspot.ca/2015/03/looking-forward-to-2015-al-central.html">first</a> <a href="http://cityofsabermetrics.blogspot.ca/2015/03/looking-forward-to-al-central-rotations.html">two</a> in this series did any team have such an advantage over the others as the Kansas City Royals have over their AL Central rivals in the bullpen. <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/herreke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Kelvin Herrera</a></strong>, ranked third behind <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollagr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Greg Holland</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/daviswa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Wade Davis</a></strong>, is as good as the best of any of the other bullpens save the White Sox' <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberda08.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">David Robertson</a></strong>. <br /><p>The Tigers' problem is that no lead looks safe with <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nathajo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Joe Nathan</a></strong> as the closer. He has been booed in Florida, which is not going to help matters, either. However, taking the Tigers' bullpen as a unit, the righty set-up men, <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/albural01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Al Alburquerque</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/soriajo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Joakim Soria</a></strong>, look a bit more solid than their equivalents on the Cleveland Indians, the Royals and the Minnesota Twins. It looks as if the Tigers' fate is going to depend a lot on how many left-handed hitters they are going to face in high-leverage situations. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-28580039431175083322015-03-18T20:05:00.000+00:002015-03-18T20:05:22.315+00:00Looking Forward to... AL Central RotationsMr Dombrowski's <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/nationals-acquire-doug-fister-from-tigers.html">trade of Doug Fister</a> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Max Scherzer</a></strong>'s <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/after-scherzer-said-no-in-march-ilitch-tigers-disengaged-012015">rejection of a $144 million contract</a> (which, to be fair, he bettered), completely undid the excellent Tigers' rotation of 2013. The question is whether the 2015 rebuild is strong enough to carry the Tigers into the post-season, where its shortcomings might be easier to hide. <br /><p>How does it stack up against the other rotations in the AL Central? Here is a chart—<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-K16ANyo7p5Q/VQnUnI_d22I/AAAAAAAAAME/hKpC9PDwplI/s1600/ALCENTRALrotations.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-K16ANyo7p5Q/VQnUnI_d22I/AAAAAAAAAME/hKpC9PDwplI/s400/ALCENTRALrotations.gif" /></a></div>The numbers are a metric of my own invention, using linear weight values for strikeouts, non-K outs, hits, home runs and walks to create a 'Pitching Runs'. The result isn't intended to be predictive of anything, but an estimate of the relative strength of each pitcher based on 2015 Steamer projections. I used six pitchers for each rotation because the fifth starter <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fifth-starters-dont-exist/">can be said not to exist</a>. <br /><p>As one can see, the Cleveland Indians' rotation is quite deep, with <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/klubeco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Corey Kluber</a></strong> a clear number one, and getting strong support from <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carraca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Carlos Carrasco</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salazda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Danny Salazar</a></strong>. It is almost 50 per cent stronger than the Tigers' one, mostly because <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Justin Verlander</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Anibal Sanchez</a></strong> are not quite as strong as the Clevelanders' #2 and #3. <br /><p>Worse, from the point of view of Tigers' fans, is the way the White Sox have apparently just as good starters in <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jeff Samardzija</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/q/quintjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jose Quintana</a></strong> backing up their #1, <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Chris Sale</a></strong>, as the Tigers have behind <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">David Price</a></strong>. However, the fall-off in the White Sox' rotation is the worst in the division. The Royals and Twins lack a true ace. <br /><p>The Tigers have their work cut out for them this season, even if Justin Verlander should bounce back. Before, their rotation strength was not just individual quality, but also depth. They will need to hit more consistently this season, to make up for a weaker back half of the rotation than we would have expected in recent years. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-57386240687069207172015-03-17T03:31:00.000+00:002015-03-17T03:32:59.227+00:00Fearless Joe Sheehan Predicts #2On 7 February 2005, the Detroit Tigers signed <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=ordonma01,ordone002mag&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Magglio Ordonez</a></strong> to a five-year contract for $75 million, and options for 2010 and 2011. At sabermetric sites such as <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/tigers_signed_ordonez">BaseballThinkFactory.org</a> <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/ap_source_tigers_agree_to_75_million_deal_with_ordonez">was largelyh hostile</a>. To sum it up, the criticism was 'Too expensive for the likely production.' But Fearless Joe Sheehan <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3746">took things a little bit further</a><br /><blockquote>In the short term--2005, maybe 2006--this contract should make the Tigers a better team. Even a past-peak Ordonez, if reasonably healthy, should put up a .300 EqA that will be a big improvement on recent Tigers' corner outfielders. It won't be long, though, before Ordonez's salary far outpaces his value, and eventually is used as the excuse for not retaining a <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondeje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jeremy Bonderman</a></strong>, or an excuse for more "changes to the system."<br /><p>The Tigers, though, can't blame any system, or boogeyman in the offices of the MLBPA. They walked into this one, and they will deserve what they get in return.</blockquote><p>In fact, as far as one can tell, the Ordonez contract had no impact at all on the Tigers' willingness to spend money <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2701548">to retain star young players</a>, including <a href="http://www.tigerblog.net/tigers-rumored-to-have-locked-up-miguel-cabrera-for-eight-years/">someone better than Magglio Ordonez</a><br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-13768341909073937962015-03-16T16:51:00.000+00:002015-03-16T16:51:44.756+00:00Looking Forward to... 2015 AL Central Lineups<i>Apologies for the Winter hiatus. My wife's breast cancer has returned, and so I have had more to do than normal. However, I hope to return to my traditional semi-regular posting schedule with the season upon us. She seems to be doing very well so far, although we won't know how successful the treatment is for another 6-8 weeks.</i><br /><p>I have an unfinished post I started composing around the time Mr Dombrowski signed <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=martivi01,martin011vic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Victor Martinez</a></strong>, which was an analysis of the effects of the <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gosean01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Anthony Gose</a></strong> deal (but not the <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cespeyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Yoenis Cespedes</a></strong> one) on the Tigers' lineup. Since we are now getting projections from the likes of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#AL-C">FanGraphs.com</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/">Baseball Prospectus</a>, I thought I would look at the lineups, rotations and bullpens of the AL Central contenders to see how they match up. <br /><p>Those projections are not happy reading for fans of the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have made a habit of making the pursuit of the division title a bit more exciting than their player talent is generally reckoned to allow. FanGraphs.com sees something of a dead heat between the Cleveland Indians and the Tigers, while the PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus give the Tigers a narrow advantage. We all know that projections are just projections, and how Lady Luck can break your heart. <br /><p>I have used Steamer Projections, available at FanGraphs, to work out the projected wRC+ of the different AL lineups, reproduced in a PNG here:<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UMYB2zfqVg4/VQcGxKqF1CI/AAAAAAAAAL0/jdsDEhbCvsY/s1600/15ALCentralLineups.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UMYB2zfqVg4/VQcGxKqF1CI/AAAAAAAAAL0/jdsDEhbCvsY/s400/15ALCentralLineups.png" /></a></div><p>The lineups are arranged by position, and based on projected PA also at FanGraphs.com I have made my own combined calculation where platoons or usage does not reflect about 500 PA per position. Being projections, one is more interested in assessing the approximate relative strength of the lineups, as opposed to achieving some kind of precision. As you can see, the Tigers still manage to have the strongest set of regulars, on paper. This is despite <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong>'s injury struggles last season, and the fact that realistically we have to expect <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">J.D. Martinez</a></strong> to do it again. The strongest challenge should be mounted by the Indians. The White Sox look a bit disappointing to me, based on what I've been hearing about their off-season all off-season. The Twins are in the middle, and the Royals bring up the rear. <br /><p>At this stage, the problem for Tigers' fans is that we as yet have no clear idea about how ready Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera will be for the start of the season. If they miss three or four weeks between them, that might be enough to close down a good portion of that twenty-run wRC+ advantage over the Indians. Having said that, I was impressed with what I had heard so far of <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collity01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Tyler Collins</a></strong> PAs this spring training. I'm a couple of games behind, though. He has been getting solid contact off front-line pitching, not just off the younger bullpen filler that tends to appear as end-of-game padding. Some good PAs as cover for one of Victor Martinez and Cabrera will go a long way towards keeping the Tigers' lineup strong. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-89708624442418268912014-11-12T17:29:00.000+00:002014-11-12T17:29:13.924+00:00Should We Have the Melk-Man Delivered?The rumour mill (or in this case <i>The Oakland Press</i>' Matthew Mowery) <a href="http://opoutofleftfield.blogspot.ca/2014/11/report-tigers-have-very-very-real.html">reported a 'real' interest on the part of the Tigers for free agent Melky Cabrera</a>. Cabrera has most recently been playing in HomerDome North, where the Blue Jays take flight. <br /><p>By now, the pattern should be familiar. Out comes the Brock2 projection spreadsheet, and in goes the data. However, I would like to briefly digress to take a look at the pattern of Cabrera's career. <br /><p>Through age 25 (2010), Melky's career slash line was .267/.328/.379. He had mostly been a CF for the Yankees up to then, with his most recent season being at all three outfield positions for the Braves. From age 26 through age 29, he has a slash line of .309/.351/.458. It's not surprising for a player to peak at this period, but that is quite a jump, adding 42 points of BA, 23 points of OBP and 79 points of slugging. He brings doubles power, rather than home-run power. Brock2 suggests his walk rate is going to improve noticeably over the next four years, with his doubles power staying about the same. We've probably seen the best of his home-run hitting. This is a player <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/big-league-stew/melky-cabrera-suspended-50-games-positive-testosterone-test-185826847--mlb.html">who was suspended for violating Major League Baseball's policy on doping</a>. <br /><p>His Runs Created over the next four years are 58, 78, 66 and 72. Not the greatest for a corner outfielder, but there is definitely a spot for production like that where Tigers' outfield corner positions are concerned. He would likely be a noticeable upgrade over <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Torii Hunter</a></strong>'s hitting production, and thus would improve the Tigers' lineup straightaway.<br /><p>The stumbling block is money. <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/10/31/6882735/free-agency-contract-calculator">Beyond the Box Score's free agency calculator</a> suggests an annual average value of around $9 million, <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8639653/melky-cabrera-agrees-two-year-deal-toronto-blue-jays">which is not a great improvement on his last contract</a>, for which Toronto paid him $8 million. <br /><p>That said, Melky potentially offers a long-term (four-year) fix of a fielding position, and is not coming off a career year. If I'm going to overpay for 274 runs created over the next four years, I think I would rather do it for a left-fielder <a href="http://cityofsabermetrics.blogspot.ca/2014/11/victor-martinez-four-more-years.html">than a DH</a>. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-73529989875837605832014-11-10T18:52:00.000+00:002014-11-10T18:52:17.877+00:00Victor Martinez: Four More Years?It seems the market for <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=martivi01,martin011vic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Victor Martinez</a></strong>' next contract <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24795277/blue-jays-mariners-among-teams-joining-tigers-in-v-mart-derby">has been set at four years</a>. If I were GM of the Tigers, would I go after him? He is possibly my favourite Tiger hitter, so my initial reaction would be to get in the bidding, post-haste.<br /><p>Once again, I turn to the Brock2 spreadsheet to consider this. Let's look at his Fangraphs' WAR and RC for his four seasons with the Tigers: <pre>Season WAR RC<br />2011 2.5 97<br />2012 0 0<br />2013 0.9 93<br />2014 4.4 122</pre>Right away, there is a problem. V-Mart was injured in 2012, which makes projections a little bit difficult. Then, we see that being a DH means one has to be an exceptional hitter to show any real WAR impact. (DHs don't field, which hurts them, in the WARverse.) Basically, a .301 average garnered few WAR. A DH needs to hit somewhere between .320 and .330 to start to be worth the kind of salaries a full-time DH can command. Let's also note that V-Mart's 32 home runs in 2014 is a career high. That's not likely to happen again. Here's his projections in those categories for the next four years, plus what Brock2 thinks his Runs Created will be:<pre>Season BA HR RC<br />2015 .297 14 67<br />2016 .289 19 78<br />2017 .314 16 82<br />2018 .277 14 67</pre>That 2015 RC value is, I think, too low on account of his missing 2012. I would expect a figure more like 2017's 82 is probable. However, all those numbers are below his previous four-year established performance. That is a very large red flag.<br /><p>Turning to the <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/10/31/6882735/free-agency-contract-calculator">Beyond the Box Score free agency calculator</a>, and adding a generous estimate of 1.7 WAR for his injured 2012 season, I get an average annual value for a 36-year-old DH of 14.9 million. But I don't think I want to use that value, because of the career-high home-run total for 2014. ZiPS, Dan Szymborski's projection system, forecast only twelve home runs for 2014, while Steamer had him with fourteen. These projections worked out to a 0.9 WAR (ZiPS) and a 1.3 WAR (Steamer). I would prefer to use a WAR number closer to these than to his actual 4.4 WAR in projecting how much I want to pay Victor Martinez. <br /><p>Adding them together gives a 2.2 WAR, which leads to a far more realistic annual average value for a 36-year-old DH coming off a career year of $9.7 million. That works out to a 4/$38.8 contract, and that would be my ceiling. But we can't do that, because that is a pay cut relative to his 2014 salary of $12 million. So despite his MVP-worthy heroics for 2014, I would say goodbye to Victor Martinez, and many thanks for a great effort. <br /><p>The problem for the Tigers is the uncertainty over the expensive contracts for <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Justin Verlander</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong>, both of whom had seasons below expectations in 2014. The last thing the Tigers need is to tie up $20.8 million in excess realistic-market-value for an aging designated hitter. I tend to think the new-fangled sabermetricians are laughably cheap in paying for quality players, but in this case I think they are probably right. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-4093312341341572442014-11-10T15:56:00.000+00:002014-11-10T15:56:44.340+00:00Washington Nationals 2014 Batted Ball Analysis<p>My batting reviews use types of batted balls to essay an assessment of how much a hitter's statistics might depart from their 'true talent level'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, getting that dying quail, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve. <br /><p>As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike-outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection. <br /><p>What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs.<pre><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/desmoia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Ian Desmond</a></strong> 79 61 +18<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Bryce Harper</a></strong> 51 41 +10<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/werthja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jayson Werth</a></strong> 100 94 + 6<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/espinda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Danny Espinosa</a></strong> 31 26 + 5<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larocad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Adam LaRoche</a></strong> 84 80 + 4<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walteza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Zach Walters</a></strong> 5 4 + 1<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=taylomi01,taylomi02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Michael Taylor</a></strong> 4 3 + 1<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=moorety01,moore-003tyl&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Tyler Moore</a></strong> 11 11 0<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schiena01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Nate Schierholtz</a></strong> 4 4 0<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=zimmery01,zimmer004rya&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Ryan Zimmerman</a></strong> 32 33 - 1<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/souzast01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Steven Souza</a></strong> 2 3 - 1<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rendoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Anthony Rendon</a></strong> 100 102 - 2<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dobbsgr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Greg Dobbs</a></strong> 1 3 - 2<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koberje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jeff Kobernus</a></strong> 0 2 - 2<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hairssc01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Scott Hairston</a></strong> 5 8 - 3<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leonsa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Sandy Leon</a></strong> 2 6 - 4<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramoswi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Wilson Ramos</a></strong> 38 43 - 5<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lobatjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jose Lobaton</a></strong> 17 24 - 7<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mclouna01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Nate McLouth</a></strong> 9 17 - 8<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreas01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Asdrubal Cabrera</a></strong> 21 30 -11<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frandke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Kevin Frandsen</a></strong> 19 32 -13<br /><strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Denard Span</a></strong> 88 102 -14</pre><p>I only did this analysis once for the Nationals in 2014 and, just like last time, Ian Desmond has been the luckiest batter, while poor Denard Span has been poorly rewarded for his efforts at the plate. Although I haven't don't a study of this, I use a rule of thumb that +/-5 is within reasonable expectations. So the main candidates to expect a decline from next year are Bryce Harper and possibly Jayson Werth (and Desmond), while we should expect more from Jose Lobaton, Nate McLouth, Asdrubal Cabrera and Kevin Frandsen (and Span). <a href="http://m.nationals.mlb.com/news/article/100119812/nationals-exercise-option-on-denard-span">So it's just as well the Nationals picked up Span's 2015 option.</a><br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-39450716121447118152014-11-08T00:23:00.001+00:002014-11-08T00:23:27.059+00:00Washington Nationals Fielding in Review 2014Here is an update to last time's fielding numbers, one that closes the book on the 2014 Nationals fielding as monitored on this blog. ('Last time' was a l-o-o-o-n-n-g time ago, <a href="http://cityofsabermetrics.blogspot.com/2014/07/2014-nationals-fielding-review-6.html">the end of July</a>.) My source for this is Fangraphs, which includes all the main metrics that interest me except for Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis.* From Fangraphs, I've used Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating, my personal first choice of the 'converted-to-runs-play-by-play' metrics, and my preferred measure of RZR. RZR is Revised Zone Rating, which is like a fielding average but counts balls hit into a zone, rather than those the fielder actually reached. I have included the MLB positional averages for RZR, to help give the players' numbers some context. Note that catchers do not have a Zone Rating. Instead, I have used the runs saved by framing, supplied by StatCorner.com <br /><br /><pre>Player UZR Change RZR Change LgAverage DRA Change PFr<br />Lobaton (C) n/a -- n/a --- n/a 8.8 +1.8 0.2<br />Ramos (C) n/a -- n/a --- n/a 2.8 -2.9 -2.6<br />Span (CF) -4.7 -4.3 .924 -.010 .919 8.2 +3.6 n/a<br />Espinosa (2B) 2.3 +2.2 .784 -.004 .787 5.0 -0.7 n/a<br />LaRoche (1B) -5.0 -3.1 .793 -.007 .796 -13.2 -5.2 n/a<br />Harper (LF) 1.5 +2.8 .886 +.014 .881 1.1 +6.6 n/a<br />Desmond (SS) 0.1 +2.4 .822 +.019 .799 -10.3 +0.5 n/a<br />Werth (RF) -1.6 +2.9 .931 -.002 .906 -10.0 -1.4 n/a<br />Rendon (3B) 4.2 +3.8 .683 -.016 .709 4.2 +1.8 n/a<br />Zimmerman (LF) 0.4 --- .907 +.002 .881 - 3.0 -3.6 n/a<br />A. Cabrera (2B) -2.2 --- .758 --- .787 - 1.5 --- n/a <br />minimum 220 innings</pre><p>I have been tracking fielding in this manner for a few years now, and my only solid conclusion is that by and large outfielders tend to find their RZR level for the season quite quickly, while infielders can be more mercurial. A metric like UZR, by contrast, swings quite wildly over the course of the season at all positions. This is the fundamental problem with metrics that apply a relative standard, which is the approach adopted the most widely accepted fielding metrics. This is to say that most fielding metrics measure a player's performance against an average for the position throughout the league. I find this deeply unsatisfactory. I have been thinking about this problem, and have a solution that I'd like to test; but I make no promises about posting it here at any time. <br /><p>Moving on to the actual metrics, the most important thing for Nationals fans to note, I think, is just how much <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Bryce Harper</a></strong> improved as a left-fielder over the course of the season. Nonetheless, he is not much more than an average fielder overall. The defensive star for the Nationals seems to be <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rendoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Anthony Rendon</a></strong>, if one believes UZR, but RZR paints a very different picture. What is strange is that UZR gives him a high range value. One can only throw up one's hands in despair at such a divergent picture. DRA likes <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Denard Span</a></strong> best, but UZR seems to think he was one of the worse fielders. RZR suggests he was about average. Again, we see a slight divergence between RZR and UZR on Span's ability to range the outfield. Well, at least we can all agree that <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larocad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Adam LaRoche</a></strong> was a bit of a defensive liability, surely. Nope — though UZR and DRA see him as the worst regular on the team, RZR thinks his range was a little bit below league average. <br /><p>The only person on whom the different metrics reach a consensus is <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreas01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Asdrubal Cabrera</a></strong>, who was got for his bat. Just as well, too. He is seen as a subpar with the glove. <br /><p>Let me conclude with a note about <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lobatjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jose Lobaton</a></strong>. He was picked up to provide some defensive help, and to be honest he did exactly that. DRA likes his fielding, and his pitch-framing, which last time I checked was -1.7, rose into positive territory. A good acquisition, Mr Rizzo!<br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-89418695823935751682014-11-07T18:51:00.000+00:002014-11-07T18:51:05.850+00:00Stranding Inherited Runners 2014: Highlighting Tigers<a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24788111">Matt Snyder at CBS' Eye on Baseball</a> (the Home for All Baseball Fans, as I think Dayn Perry puts it) has once again <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=9hpTH">generated a list using Baseball Reference's Play Index</a> of relievers performance in 2014 at stranding runners on base. Because the Tigers' relief corps has been a matter of some controversy this season, I thought I'd highlight their performance. These are drawn from a list of 110 relievers who over the season added up to having at least twenty-five runners on base when they came into the game.<br /><pre>Player IRS% Rank<br />Hardy 27.6 62<br />Alburquerque 27.7 63<br />Coke 36.5 92<br />Krol 42.1 103</pre>The Tigers' relievers were not particularly good at keeping runners from scoring. None of them are in the top half of the ranking, let alone in an elite zone like the top third or quarter. This isn't really a surprise to those who followed the games. We can surmise from this that <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ausmubr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Brad Ausmus</a></strong>' main options in a jam during the season were <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cokeph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Phil Coke</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/albural01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Al Alburquerque</a></strong>, although <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hardybl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Blaine Hardy</a></strong> seems to have taken over from Coke after he arrived to stay. <br /><br />It does raise the question of why Ausmus changed his bullpen set-up in the playoffs, though. Alburquerque had the second-best percentage by not very much. But, then again, the <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=Gdxxc">2013 table</a> shows he was a much riskier proposition the year before, with a IRS% of 35%.<br /><br />Even more astonishingly, that 2013 performance was still good enough for second-best on the team. (Phil Coke's 33.3% was the best.) The Tigers may have come in for a lot of criticism for their bullpen this season, but last season was worse. Dombrowski's efforts to improve that sector show he achieved something. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-90212415186430705062014-11-07T04:00:00.001+00:002014-11-07T04:08:07.178+00:00What to offer Giancarlo Stanton?Yesterday, one of my favourite sites, MLBTradeRumors.com, mentioned that <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/nl-east-notes-stanton-mets-nationals-tomas-hamels.html">contract talks between Giancarlo Stanton and the Miami Marlins</a> were underway. <br /><br />Earlier this year, I wrote a post about <a href="http://cityofsabermetrics.blogspot.ca/2014/02/is-ian-desmond-worth-90-million.html">how much Ian Desmond might actually be worth</a> on the market, based on what the Washington Nationals suggested he might be worth in their contract offer to him. I am going to use some of the information discussed there, combined with Beyond the Box Score's recent post on estimating free-agent contracts, to see just what kind of price the Marlins might need to pay. Stanton, <a href="http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/11/6/7171557/marlins-giancarlo-stanton-wins-silver-slugger-award">who won a Silver Slugger award for his performance in 2014</a>, is going to be an expensive proposition, but signing him would do a lot to challenge the 'fire-sale cheapskate ownership' reputation of the Marlins franchise that began after 1997. <br /><br />Projecting careers is a fool's errand, especially after the kind of traumatic injury experienced by Stanton. <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/greg-cote/article2090571.html">Some comparisons have been made to Tony Conigliaro</a>, making projecting just next season somewhat problematic. How much will that experience affect Stanton's ability to stand in the box and attack the ball? Worse still, I don't have a super-sophisticated projection model like ZiPS or Steamer. I do, however, have a Brock2 spreadsheet, based on a system that <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=jamesbi02,jamesbi01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Bill James</a></strong> devised about thirty years ago. This lets me work out a basic Runs Created value for each of Stanton's seasons, which we can compare to his FanGraphs WAR for the same season:<br /><br /><pre>Season WAR RC<br />2010 2.3 59<br />2011 3.2 97<br />2012 5.6 97<br />2013 2.3 74<br />2014 6.1 118</pre><br />There is a big difference in relating WAR to RC in 2010 and 2013 and in relating 2011 to 2012. Examining FanGraphs' breakdown of WAR values between batting, fielding and base-running in more detail, what one sees is that 2011 is suppressed by poor base-running and a lower fielding score. In 2013, Stanton fielded a lot worse than he did in 2010. So we have to be a little bit careful here. Stanton's 6.1 in 2014 for a 118 RunsCreated is probably the benchmark to use, as his base-running and fielding numbers fall around the medians for his career. <br /><br />Stanton has two arbitration years remaining. What we need is to estimate the value of his next two seasons by WAR, and then guess what they might lead an arbitrator to award. Using that 118 RC = 6.1 WAR value for 2014, for 2015 Brock2 projects Stanton at 121 RC and for 2016 a projection of 126 RC. These work out to 6.3 WAR and 6.5 WAR respectively. <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2015.html">MLB Trade Rumors has already projected a $13 million salary</a> for 2015, a doubling of his 2014 salary. Despite the injury, Stanton played quite a bit, making 639 Plate Appearances, and playing time is an important component of arbitration raises. One probably ought to anticipate a similar doubling of salary based on his 2015 projected Runs Created, so let's say Stanton can expect something like $35 million over the next two seasons, allowing him to underperform his projection a little, a possibility after such a horrific injury. <br /><br />When one gets to Stanton's free-agency years, the problems begin because at this moment we have almost no idea how many years the Marlins might offer, nor how many Stanton might be looking for. There are effectively three broad-based options here. The obvious first two are a long contract that basically ties up Stanton's most productive years, or a short contract that allows Stanton to return to free agency with a prime year or two left giving him a chance at a second monster contract. Based on his Brock2 projection, Stanton would probably want a short contract to end after his age 29 season (2019), the Marlins might want to keep him through age 31 (2021). A longer-term contract would probably see the Marlins wanting him through age 38 (2028), although they might want to curtail it at age 35 (2025) in order to reduce the risk of carrying a high-salaried underperforming player. Stanton probably wants to go right to age 40 (2030), which would still give him a chance to sign a one-year deal with a contender needing veteran leadership from a proven winner. <br /><br />A third option could be a longish deal with an opt-out. This has the advantage from Stanton's point of view of putting pressure to contend on the Marlins or whatever team they may trade him to after agreeing to an opt-out. Stanton has made it plain he wants to get to the post-season, and he wants to see Marlins' ownership show a similar commitment.<br /><br />The <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/10/31/6882735/free-agency-contract-calculator">Beyond the Box Score free agency calculator</a> suggests that, after three 6+ WAR seasons, a free agent right-fielder can expect an annual average value salary of $39.2 million. Since this is based on a 2014 season, we can only expect this sum to go up. I suspect the actual figure might be between $42-45 million, given that MLB player wages rise somewhere between 5 and 8 per cent per annum. That kind of annual salary equals the Marlins' entire estimated payroll for 2014, according to Baseball-Reference. It is also <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/09/marlins-say-their-offer-to-albert-pujols-was-nowhere-near-275-million/">double what the Marlins were estimated to have offered Albert Pujols in 2011</a>. <br /><br />The only way this deal is going to work for the Marlins, I believe, is with a substantial chunk of deferred money, the technique Jerry Colangelo and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garagjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Joe Garagiola</a></strong>, Jr used to build the 2001 World Champion Diamondbacks. I suspect Stanton's willingness to sign with the Marlins is going to depend on his willingness to accept a substantial number of deferred payments. <br /><br />What kind of proposal might open the negotiations? I think I would copy <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/252-MILLION-MAN-Rodriguez-signs-with-Rangers-3238243.php">Alex Rodriguez' contract with the Texas Rangers</a>, signed during the 2000/01 off-season. That was a ten-year deal with an opt-out after the seventh year, with an average annual value of $25.2 million and about 20 per cent of the pre-opt-out salaries deferred. I would add together two arbitration years at a value of $35 million, and eight years at $40 million to give a total of $355 million. That gives an annual average value of $35.5 million, and an estimated actual in-season value during the first seven years of about $30 million after the deferrals. (I actually would prefer to defer a lot more, ideally as much as 50 per cent.) I'm honestly not sure I'd go much above $355 million simply because I'm not convinced the South Florida market can sustain a large payroll for an extended period. <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2014/11/04/florida-is-a-bandwagon-state-and-the-worst-at-supporting-pro-sports/">The evidence is that Floridians are not even particularly good about supporting even winners over the long haul.</a> Sometimes it is better to work around one's shortcomings, than to pretend they don't exist. <br /><br />The immediate problem, though, is that such an offer means finding an additional $17 million for 2015, before adding any other payroll. At the moment Cot's says that the Marlins have about $18 million in commitments for 2015. Adding $30 million for Stanton will take that up to $48 million, before anyone else's arbitration raise or salaries for pre-arbitration players. For 2015, the Marlins might be looking at a payroll in the $70-80 million range to be as competitive as Stanton would like. That's almost a doubling of payroll in one season. Is that really affordable right now? It's hard to say given Mr Loria's history of tight control on the team's spending. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-2886581555115399312014-10-16T21:33:00.000+01:002014-10-16T21:33:05.985+01:00Fearless Joe Sheehan Predicts #1<blockquote>•The Diamondbacks' signing of <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glaustr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Troy Glaus</a></strong> is a strange move. ... His contract--I'll call this one now--is untradable the moment he signs it, which means in two years he'll be blocking a spot the D'backs may eventually need for <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Conor Jackson</a></strong> or <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dantoja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jamie D'Antona</a></strong>. </blockquote><br /><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3667">Source</a>.<br /><br /><blockquote>December 11, 2004: Signed as a Free Agent with the Arizona Diamondbacks. <br />December 27, 2005: Traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks with <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santose01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Sergio Santos</a></strong> to the Toronto Blue Jays for <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/batismi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Miguel Batista</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoor01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Orlando Hudson</a></strong>.</blockquote><br /><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glaustr01.shtml">Source</a>.<br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-7060316883832254562014-10-06T22:20:00.000+01:002014-10-06T22:20:31.688+01:00Nationals: Do or Die, My Good-byeI was an Expos fan. In 2004, I listened to many of the games during that last season by means of MLB's GameDay audio. Compared to the previous two seasons of the MLB Expos, that demanded a degree of fortitude and loyalty. I still bear a deep grudge towards Brian O'Nora, who during an interleague game called a foul ball fair for a home run. When the Expos were moved to Washington, I was upset and my initial response was to look for an alternative team to follow, settling on the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, as luck would have it, the Diamondbacks were playing in Washington at the start of the 2005 season, and I decided to listen to Charlie Slowes and Dave Shea. I was charmed by Slowes in particular, and gradually my familiarity with the 2005 Nationals' roster holdovers from the Expos, and their division-leading antics, had me sticking by the team. <br /><br />For younger Nationals' fans, who found that where baseball teams are concerned it is better to receive than to give, the kind of humility required to hang on to fandom of a team that is moved is possibly hard to envisage. Longer-term Washington baseball fans might know the feeling well, especially after the original Nationals/Senators became the Twins and went on to a very successful 1960s while the Replacements really gave meaning to the old saying, 'First in war, &c'. In this case, I was rooting for a bunch of people who had made life very miserable with their taunts on message boards during 2002-4. Not many Expos' rooters followed me to Washington. In fact, many would despise me for sticking with the franchise.<br /><br />The next four years saw me dividing my fandom between the Nationals and the team that I actually grew up with, the Detroit Tigers. The improbable 2006 World Series run by the Tigers did a lot to draw my interest, but my preference for National League baseball (no DH! — the reason I became a fan of a National League team in the first place) also pulled me back towards the ex-Expos. I was tugged in two directions.<br /><br />In 2009, I made a conscious decision at the start of spring training to refocus on the Nationals, and I started writing this blog to help with that. The title of this blog is, in fact, a Latin pun on 'D.C.'. I paradoxically enjoyed following that losing 2009 team, despite its problems. But there were also annoyances, such as the horrible <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dibblro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Rob Dibble</a></strong> & <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpebo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Bob Carpenter</a></strong> television duo, and the fact that Nationals Park clearly referenced not the Nationals' franchise history, but the history of Washington baseball. Now that's great for Washington baseball fans, but it creates problems outside of the District. And, in fact, there has been a constant tension between the Expos' heritage and the marketing problem of building a new fan-base. I've never really been comfortable with the Nationals borrowing the Twins' past, given that there was an Expos' past that the Nationals had every right to. But I also understood that the Expos' past could not speak with much authority to Washington's baseball fans.<br /><br />2012, right down to Mr Slowes' outstanding home-run call on <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/werthja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jayson Werth</a></strong>'s walk-off in Game #4 of the NLDS against the Cardinals, was for me a culmination. Despite being in Canada, not Washington, despite being nurtured into my baseball fandom in Tiger Stadium, not DC Stadium, my elation was just as great as that of anyone's along the Potomac. And the sadness that followed after the Game #5 loss was equally as great. I had followed the construction of that team from 2009 with interest. Those events hurt a bit more than the Tigers' loss to the Giants in the World Series. But when the 2013 season rolled around, something had changed between me and the Nationals. I still don't know what, but I felt a distance that wasn't there before. Was it the free agency of <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lannajo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">John Lannan</a></strong>? The acquisition of <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Denard Span</a></strong>? The trade of <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morsemi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Michael Morse</a></strong>? Was it the fact that the bitter loss of the 2012 NLDS had cemented their identity as a Washington team, as opposed to a continuing example of the Expos' futile pursuit of post-season glory? Not even Slowes & Jageler could shift a sensation that something was rotten in the state of my Nationals'fandom. The 2014 season simply reinforced these feelings of distance. Instead I invested considerable emotion in the ups and downs of the Tigers, who literally uglied their way into an AL Central pennant.<br /><br />Then, last Saturday night, there was the 1924 Flag That Will Fly Forever, marking the Washington team's World Series victory that season. Except that flag belongs to the Twins, who took it with them along with the makings of a competitive team when they left in 1960. Now I gather that something like it may have been flying over Nationals Park since it opened in 2008, but on Saturday the prominence given it in the television coverage rankled with me. First Washington baseball fans took someone else's team, and now they are taking another club's history. That's one way to look at it. One could just as easily argue that the Twins left it there when they moved to another city. But neutral arbiters <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/">have assigned it to the Twins</a>. It's one of those areas where one's predisposition will determine what side of the argument one will find oneself on. <br /><br />As the Tigers crashed out of the ALDS in miserable fashion, I came to a conclusion: the Expo in me has to let go of the Nationals. Unless I wind up living in the Chesapeake Bay area in the future, I will focus my baseball team fandom on the Tigers. Tonight will be the last game I watch as a fan of the Nationals. I will still make the post-season blog posts I intend to make about the 2014 Nationals, but they will be the last gestures towards a team that I have followed, in some fashion or another, since 2005. Whether the Nationals do or die, I say <i>ave atque vale</i> to a part of my life that sought to maintain ties to a dead franchise and a memory of past times.<br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-52614608629384266732014-08-30T18:49:00.000+01:002014-08-30T18:49:24.982+01:00Kyle Ryan's AAA Outings<strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ryan--001kyl&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Kyle Ryan</a></strong> has spent all of the month pitching at the AAA level, and today he makes the jump to the big leagues. What can those minor-league outings tell us about what we could expect to see against the White Sox?<br /><p>I like to use QMAX, a system developed in the days of the <i>Big Bad baseball Annual</i>, itself a lineal descendant of Bill James' old abstracts. QMAX is helpfully thought of as a means of distinguishing the varying quality of quality and non-quality starts. I have always found it especially useful in helping to understand minor-league outings, even though it was designed with Major-League statistics. It looks at two components of pitching, the ability to miss bats (stuff) and the ability to pitch in the zone (command). Outings are categorised by where they fall on a matrix, such as 'the Success Square', 'the Hit Hard region' and some don't fit into any category at all. The 'Power Precipice' is a zone where pitchers who successfully overpower hitters still find themselves teetering on the brink of a fall because they walk too many. For young players, that's a hopeful sign, because improved command will supplement good stuff. By contrast, the Elite Square reflects the stingiest of pitchers in allowing chances for the opposition, and suggest a pitcher who is ready to try the next level. Here's a list of Kyle Ryan's performances at the AAA level.<br /><p><pre>2 August Elite Square<br /> 8 August Elite Square<br />14 August Uncategorised<br />20 August Elite Square<br />25 August Success Square/Power Precipice</pre><p>Now what we know about minor-league baseball is that for pitchers, a lack of command at AAA will mean problems walking batters in the big leagues. We also know that AAA fielders aren't quite as good as major-league ones, so pitchers will suffer a few more hits than they might. In terms of hits given up, the Toledo Mud Hens look to be around league average.<br /><p>The AAA outings suggest that Ryan is ready to have a cup of coffee at the major-league level, as he has shown some ability at mastering AAA hitters. He is very good at keeping the ball in the strike zone, although it may be his success depends on being a little too crafty for major-league hitters (which is to say that they are harder to fool than minor-leaguers). His k/9s indicate he is a pitch-to-contact type, and his numbers at Erie (AA) might give a clearer idea of what we might expect in the hitter's park that the White Sox play in. There he gave up almost twice as many hits as he did at Toledo, and had an HR/9 of 1.1. <br />I suspect we'll see something on the order of 5 IP, 5 R, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 2 K. I'd settle for that. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-80522561210572345812014-08-29T18:51:00.000+01:002014-08-29T18:58:35.386+01:002014 Tigers' Hitters' Batted Balls in Review #2I haven't posted any of my batted ball or fielding surveys for quite a while, so I thought I'd start a new cycle with the Tigers, who have been most on my mind of late. This review uses a method involving batted balls to examine whether hitters might be regarded as 'unlucky'. Another way to think about it is to see who might be hitting over their heads, or who might be suffering from an excess of 'at 'em' balls and may be likely to improve.<br /><p>As anyone familiar with sabermetrics knows, one can evaluate batting events by means of linear weights. What this means is that a single is worth about two-fifths of a run while a home run, because it can drive in the men on base, is worth over three times a single. Research has revealed that types of batted balls can assign similar values. Line drives are worth a lot, while infield flies are almost as good as strike outs. There is a problem in deciding what category to place a batted ball sometimes, especially the difference between a fly ball and a liner, as symbolised by the neologism 'fliner'. So one needs to treat these numbers with a degree of circumspection. <br /><p>What this chart shows is the difference between a batted-ball linear weight and Fangraphs' wRC. wRC gives a supposed aggregate number of runs that should have been scored based on hitting events. Some people have flares falling in, while others hit the ball hard, but see it caught. The batted ball number also includes Ultimate Base Running, to make it more compatible with wRC. Note that the chart excludes pitchers' hitting. The first column is wRC, the second the batted ball expected runs and the third the positive or negative difference.<br /><pre><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-"><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">J.D. Martin</a></strong>ez</a></strong> 60 41 +19<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=martivi01,martin011vic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Victor Martinez</a></strong> 91 78 +13<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/avilaal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Alex Avila</a></strong> 43 35 + 8<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong> 87 81 + 6<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisra01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Rajai Davis</a></strong> 48 49 - 1<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Torii Hunter</a></strong> 59 60 - 1<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carreez01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Ezequiel Carrera</a></strong> 3 4 - 1<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suareeu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Eugenio Suarez</a></strong> 25 26 - 1<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collity01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Tyler Collins</a></strong> 0 1 - 1<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=gonzaal02,gonzaal01,gonzal001ale,gonzal006ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Alex Gonzalez</a></strong> 1 4 - 3<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/holadbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Bryan Holaday</a></strong> 9 12 - 3<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/worthda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Danny Worth</a></strong> 1 5 - 4<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rominan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Andrew Romine</a></strong> 12 20 - 8<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casteni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Nick Castellanos</a></strong> 52 60 - 8<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kellydo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Don Kelly</a></strong> 13 23 -10 <br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksau01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Austin Jackson</a></strong> 49 60 -11<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kinslia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Ian Kinsler</a></strong> 68 91 -23</pre>JD-Mart continues to be fortunate on the outcomes of his batted balls, although his luck has faded quite a bit. At the other end of the scale, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kinslia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Ian Kinsler</a></strong> has slumped quite a bit. Most of the other players have moved slightly up or down, although <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=martivi01,martin011vic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Victor Martinez</a></strong> has continued to hit above his batted-ball weight at about the same pace. I predicted last time that a slump might lead to a run production problem, <a href="http://cityofsabermetrics.blogspot.ca/2014/08/summer-of-discontent.html">which as I discussed earlier</a> in fact happened after the All-Star break. I think it is important to note that <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisra01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Rajai Davis</a></strong> has been an adequate replacement for <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksau01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Austin Jackson</a></strong> with the bat — especially with such a strong showing from <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suareeu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Eugenio Suarez</a></strong> at shortstop and slight improvement from <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Torii Hunter</a></strong> — but let's see what the fielding numbers tell us about his defence. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-80695901483033011332014-08-29T16:43:00.001+01:002014-08-29T16:43:23.636+01:0029 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game ScoresNational League action reigns supreme for a change at the top, although the Nationals are going to have to play under American-League rules during their visit to Seattle. Those two teams have top-notch bullpens, one of the highest bullpen scores I've seen for a series. They also have the best pitching match-up of the day going for them, with blog favourite <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zimmejo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jordan Zimmermann</a></strong> facing <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Felix Hernandez</a></strong>. The AL Central Division clash between Cleveland and Kansas City this weekend has a lot of potential for unsettling the playoff race. a sweep by Cleveland has the potential to bring several fringe teams, including the Indians, into the hunt for October. The match-up between <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salazda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Danny Salazar</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jason Vargas</a></strong> is not without its charms. Meanwhile, pity the poor Arizona Diamondbacks, once again at the bottom of the table, who send <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collmjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Josh Collmenter</a></strong> against <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bergmch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Christian Bergman</a></strong>. <br /><pre>Milwaukee vs San Francisco 61<br />Washington vs Seattle 61<br />Cleveland vs Kansas City 58<br />Miami vs Atlanta 58<br />Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh 54<br />Detroit vs White Sox 54<br />Cubs vs St Louis 50<br />Yankees vs Toronto 48<br />Oakland vs Angels 46<br />Minnesota vs Baltimore 45<br />Boston vs Tampa Bay 44<br />Philadelphia vs Mets 43<br />Texas vs Houston 43<br />Dodgers vs San Diego 42<br />Colorado vs Arizona 41<br /></pre>This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.<br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-16403550886727619892014-08-28T15:14:00.001+01:002014-08-28T15:14:29.404+01:0028 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game ScoresBy virtue of its value in the race for the second Wild Card spot in the American League, this afternoon's game between the Yankees and the Tigers is potentially the most entertaining game of the day, by a little bit, over the game between the Rockies and the Giants. The Tigers once again have to draw on their minor-league reserves to send <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lobstky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Kyle Lobstein</a></strong> out against <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Hiroki Kuroda</a></strong>. Overall, it is a mediocre, at best, day for marquee starting pitcher match-ups. Your best bet in this regard is, by a single point a surprising one — <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mchugco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Collin McHugh</a></strong> vs <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tepesni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Nick Tepesch</a></strong>, in the battle for Texas.<br /><pre>Yankees vs Detroit 60<br />Colorado vs San Francisco 57<br />Atlanta vs Mets 54<br />Minnesota vs Kansas City 53<br />Tampa Bay vs Baltimore 47<br />Cleveland vs White Sox 45<br />Oakland vs Angels 45<br />Texas vs Houston 43<br />Cubs vs Cincinnati 42<br /></pre>This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score.<br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-56921805346017140892014-08-27T16:00:00.002+01:002014-08-27T16:00:47.403+01:0027 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game ScoresThe order of today's games is almost identical to that of yesterday's, although <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong> versus <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Wade Miley</a></strong> is a highly entertaining pitching match-up, pulling the Dodgers vs Arizona game up several places off the bottom. (I caught some of yesterday's game, which was no advertisement for the replay system.) Today's top pitching pair is in Detroit, where <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greensh02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Shane Greene</a></strong> takes on <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">David Price</a></strong>. However, if one includes bullpens in the calculation, you'll want to watch Atlanta versus the Mets. <br /><pre>Texas vs Seattle 60<br />Yankees vs Detroit 59<br />Colorado vs San Francisco 58<br />St Louis vs Pittsburgh 58<br />Minnesota vs Kansas City 54<br />Atlanta vs Mets 55<br />Tampa Bay vs Baltimore 47<br />Cleveland vs White Sox 47<br />Miami vs Angels 45<br />Boston vs Toronto 45<br />Milwaukee vs San Diego 45<br />Dodgers vs Arizona 45<br />Oakland vs Houston 44<br />Washington vs Philadelphia 42<br />Cubs vs Cincinnati 43<br /></pre>This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-52570246219498436632014-08-27T15:37:00.000+01:002014-08-27T15:37:03.021+01:00Tigers 2014 Game 130: V-Mart vs McCarthy<strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=martivi01,martin011vic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Victor Martinez</a></strong>' duel with <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccarbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Brandon McCarthy</a></strong> last night showed exactly why baseball is a game of fine distinctions, and well worth one's close attention. Let me show you three strike-zone plots from BrooksBaseball.net. <br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vkjiB8iu3Wg/U_3mTGwyJQI/AAAAAAAAAKk/az_6IPcnsSg/s1600/1408261stVMartK.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vkjiB8iu3Wg/U_3mTGwyJQI/AAAAAAAAAKk/az_6IPcnsSg/s400/1408261stVMartK.gif" /></a></div><p>1st inning<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xIenfgCDIuE/U_3md2IsW4I/AAAAAAAAAKs/rks0YqUaRA4/s1600/1408263rdVMart3g.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xIenfgCDIuE/U_3md2IsW4I/AAAAAAAAAKs/rks0YqUaRA4/s400/1408263rdVMart3g.gif" /></a></div><p>3rd inning<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hYn0xs9KJQM/U_3mlmMS1II/AAAAAAAAAK0/_22Q-hufSHE/s1600/1408266thVMart1BBrooks.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hYn0xs9KJQM/U_3mlmMS1II/AAAAAAAAAK0/_22Q-hufSHE/s400/1408266thVMart1BBrooks.gif" /></a></div>6th inning<br /><p>V-Mart, as I like to call him, went 1 for 3, which is a .333 batting average, so he did rather well by traditional standards. More than that, though, we can see that in the first plate appearance McCarthy kept changing the plane on V-Mart, until V-Mart chased a pitch well off the plate that he foul-tipped into the catcher's glove. Tom Gage, of the <i>Detroit News</i>, tweeted that it was 'a heckuva pitch', which put me on alert. <br /><p>In the third, V-Mart swung at the first pitch, a sinker to a spot that McCarthy hadn't used in the first PA, and sent a grounder to <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teixema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Mark Teixeira</a></strong> at first. Teixeira made the play unassisted.<br /><p>In the sixth, the two previous PAs came together. McCarthy went back to working highish, outside and away. When that didn't work, he went back to the sinker, only this time he reversed the first PA, now working down and over the plate. V-Mart connected for a single on this one, and eventually would score on <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casteni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Nick Castellanos</a></strong>' single. <br /><p>The only slight cloud on the evening was the nine hits that <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Rick Porcello</a></strong> surrendered. He made up for that with not issuing a single walk, but his performance was not dominant, and explains why I never felt comfortable given the Tigers' bullpen uncertainties. This was a good win for the Tigers, despite <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gordoal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Alex Gordon</a></strong>'s walk-off in Kansas City, which meant the Tigers could only keep pace with the Royals. I'm afraid I'm not entirely sold on #RoyalsDevilMagic yet, no matter how frequently Rany Jazayerli tweets about it. I'm still going with <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jim Price</a></strong>'s view that 'the MoJo is moving towards Detroit'. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-40643352921655002202014-08-26T16:53:00.002+01:002014-08-26T16:54:33.803+01:0026 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game ScoresToday's top pitching match-up is in Philadelphia, between <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Gio Gonzalez</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Cole Hamels</a></strong>. Despite this fact, the game itself is deemed as potentially not very entertaining at all. Why is this? Three factors are involved. The first is that as the Nationals are very likely to make the playoffs and the Phillies are improbable playoff contenders, the game carries little weight in terms of playoff value. A Nationals loss isn't going to hurt their chances all that much, and a Phillies win isn't going to put them in the running for a spot. Secondly, the Phillies bullpen isn't particularly watchable, largely because of a dreadful Left-on-Base percentage. Thirdly, Philles hitters lack power and don't run the bases very well. Basically, the Phillies are dragging down the game's value. So there. Also, I noticed that Detroit now has sneaked ahead of Kansas City in playoff probability. Meanwhile, Yankee fans should take note that their playoff odds are actually worse than those of Cincinnati. That should put things into context. <pre>Texas vs Seattle 60<br />Yankees vs Detroit 59<br />Colorado vs San Francisco 58<br />Minnesota vs Kansas City 56<br />St Louis vs Pittsburgh 55<br />Atlanta vs Mets 55<br />Tampa Bay vs Baltimore 48<br />Miami vs Angels 47<br />Boston vs Toronto 46<br />Cleveland vs White Sox 46<br />Milwaukee vs San Diego 45<br />Oakland vs Houston 45<br />Washington vs Philadelphia 44<br />Dodgers vs Arizona 44<br />Cubs vs Cincinnati 43<br /></pre>This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-72476075021268479592014-08-25T19:22:00.001+01:002014-08-25T19:22:34.140+01:00Thinking About Garbage NumbersOn Saturday night, I saw <a href="https://twitter.com/JarredCosart/status/503412788401020928">Jarred Cosart's tweet about Adeiny Hechavarria and his fielding metrics</a>. Fielding numbers have been controversial for most of the history of sabermetrics, so anyone with any sense to begin with should regard them as 'informed opinions'. (I also hold the view that this is somewhat true of park factors, pitching numbers and even hitting numbers, albeit to lesser degrees as one advances along that list.) Inspired by <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cosarja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jarred Cosart</a></strong>, I went to check the garbage dump at FanGraphs, and this morning my thunder was stolen, somewhat, by <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-can-we-make-sense-of-adeiny-hechavarria/">Jeff Sullivan's post on the matter</a>.<br /><p>What Sullivan didn't look at, but what I did look at straightaway on Saturday night, was the lesser-known 'Inside Edge' numbers at FanGraphs. 'Inside Edge' is assembled by scouts who assign a difficulty value to plays. Read more <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/inside-edge-fielding-data/">here</a>, and Inside Edge's website is <a href="http://mlb.inside-edge.com/default.html">here</a>. I found Inside Edge interesting in thinking about <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong>'s fielding during 2013, in that it suggested Cabrera did extremely well with routine plays at third base, but was somewhat taxed the more he had to move. That fit my own impression better than some awful number spat out by UZR or DRS. <br /><p><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0">This link</a> to 2014's qualified shortstops table of Inside Edge data is sortable, if you click on the column tops. What you will see is that <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hechaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Adeiny Hechavarria</a></strong> is about average at making routine plays (those Inside Edge rates as being 60% 'field-able' or more), but slumps down the list at plays I would call 'marginal' (40-60% 'field-ability'). Looking at 'difficult' plays (40% or less), however, Hechavarria puts in his best performance. Now, if you look at FanGraphs rating of his UZR or DRS in more detail, what you'll see is that he's below average in range and in turning the double play. If he can get to a ball, he's unlikely to make an error, but he doesn't get to all the balls that he could. We see this also borne out by the Inside Edge data I described above, in that he performs badly at what I called 'marginal' plays. <br /><p>There's a sense that both sides of this argument are right, which is not really the way for a humble blogger like me to get attention and land a high-paying job in the industry. Hechavarria is very good at making plays most shortstops cannot, which will often occur at critical moments in a game, and good enough at making the routine plays. But he doesn't fill the space in between too well. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-909819909148894358.post-32785392234500783182014-08-25T16:59:00.000+01:002014-08-25T17:00:04.568+01:0025 August 2014: Potentially Entertaining Game ScoresThe day's top pitching match-up, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lackejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">John Lackey</a></strong> vs <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liriafr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Francisco Liriano</a></strong>, carries the key National League Central Division clash to the top of the day's chart. Tracking the playoff odds each day, one can see how much a single pairing of results makes one realise a race is much closer than it might feel. The Blue Jays lost quite a bit of ground over the weekend, although their odds were never good. Thus, both their game with the Red Sox and the game between the Rockies and the Giants start out with the same potential entertainment score, but once one adjusts for relative positions in the race, where the Giants remain on the cusp of the second wild-card spot, the Blue Jays' game falls five points in value. Running off a solid winning streak would probably help the Blue Jays immensely at this point.<br /><br /><pre>St Louis vs Pittsburgh 59<br />Texas vs Seattle 58<br />Colorado vs San Francisco 58<br />Yankees vs Royals 57<br />Tampa Bay vs Baltimore 48<br />Boston vs Toronto 46<br />Milwaukee vs San Diego 45<br />Oakland vs Houston 44<br />Miami vs Angels 44<br />Washington vs Philadelphia 42<br /></pre><br />This is the BETA version of a method of rating games for their potential to provide entertaining baseball. The formula is still in development, but is refined enough at the moment that it can guide you towards games where the batters will get on base and hit for power, the fielders cover ground and throw well and the pitchers induce the batter to swing. Games are rated on the 20-80 scale, with 50 being an average score. <br />Paul Brewerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00053159287108115958noreply@blogger.com0