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Presidential race 2016

Ted Koppel cautions Don’t expect Trump to go quietly: There is a disarming innocence to the assumption that whether by impeachment, indictment or a cleansing electoral redo in 2020, President Trump will be exorcised from the White House and that thereby he and his base will largely revert to irrelevance. Truthfully, there are few among the…

NBC reports on a deal between prosecutors in the federal Southern District of New York and AMI, the publisher of the pro-Trump National Enquirer: AMI, National Enquirer’s parent company, admitted it made $150,000 Cohen payment “in concert” with “a candidate’s presidential campaign” in order to “ensure that the woman did not publicize damaging allegations about…

This is the declassified version of the intelligence community’s report on Russian activities and elections in the November election. See, also, Declassified report says Putin ‘ordered’ effort to undermine faith in U.S. election and help Trump.

I posted yesterday on James Surowiecki’s contention that Trump’s success with non-college whites was predictable, but that Trump’s better-than-expected success with college-educated whites is what the press missed. See, James Surowiecki on What the Press Missed About Trump’s Win. Surowiecki makes a few follow-up remarks to his tweet-stream of yesterday. First, Surowiecki is not saying that…

James Surowiecki of The New Yorker has a nineteen-tweet string on what the press missed about Trump’s win. The string starts at 10:22 AM – 5 Jan 2017 and ends at 10:48 AM – 5 Jan 2017. It’s worth reading in full, but here are Surowiecki’s 5 key tweets: 1. My least-favorite post-election meme is the…

Blogging at Mother Jones, Kevin Drum – like many of us, of whatever politics – seems uncertain about the consequences of a Trump Administration. (In fairness, much has happened in a short time, and it’s hard to make sense of it all.) Still, Drum’s thinking has shifted significantly over the last few days, in ways…

The final 2016 Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here key findings from the 10.26.16 to 10.31.16 poll (the full results are available online). Clinton-Trump, Among LV: New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump among likely voters in WI 46% to 40%. #mulawpoll — MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016 Johnson-Stein, Among…

Libertarians have a political philosophy, and may also be members of a political party using that same name. For those of us who are both ideologically libertarian and members of the national party (as I am), the statement yesterday from Libertarian vice presidential candidate Bill Weld (a former Republican governor of Massachusetts), summaries nicely our…

The early October Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are two key findings from the 10.6.16 to 10.9.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon). Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein, Among LV: New Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin likely voters: Clinton 44% Trump 37% Johnson 9%Stein 3%#MULawPoll — MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 12,…

The mid-September Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are a few key findings from the 9.15.16 to 9.18.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon). Clinton-Trump, Among LV: New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump among likely voters in WI 44% to 42%. #mulawpoll — MULawPoll…

In the weeks ahead, we’re sure to hear about dramatic results! or shocking details! from presidential or statewide polls. Over at FiveThirtyEight, they’ve 13 Tips For Reading General Election Polls Like A Pro. All thirteen are instructive, but tips 1 and 2 are especially useful guidelines: Beware of polls tagged “bombshells” or “stunners.” Any poll described thusly is…

The latest Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are a few key findings from the 8.25.16 to 8.28.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon). Clinton-Trump, Among LV: Among likely voters in WI, Clinton 45%, Trump 42%, with 10% supporting neither. #mulawpoll — MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 31, 2016…