tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13928664267450216992018-05-24T13:19:52.975+02:00The Wine GourdLooking at data in the world of wineDavid Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.comBlogger111125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-32386082372252270002018-05-21T00:30:00.000+02:002018-05-21T00:30:01.563+02:00Forecasts, predictions and guesses in the wine industryI read an online article recently that used the words "guesses", "forecasts" and "predictions" in the same paragraph, as though they were interchangeable words. However, if these words all meant the same thing then at least two of them would be redundant. So, we may safely conclude that there <i>must</i> be some difference(s) between them, however subtle.<br /><br />The point of this post is that the differences between them are not subtle, at all. Indeed, their differences are important to our success when making decisions about the future, although writers seem to be rather confused about the difference.* They criticize the forecasters because their "predictions" are not accurate — however, the pundits did not make predictions, they made forecasts.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QMPqNQ0gOg4/WuiGyEdSISI/AAAAAAAAAMM/lxFXx4boct8gswVQhbBRLAf47O06BIwkACLcBGAs/s1600/Pigeonholes.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="332" data-original-width="610" height="217" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QMPqNQ0gOg4/WuiGyEdSISI/AAAAAAAAAMM/lxFXx4boct8gswVQhbBRLAf47O06BIwkACLcBGAs/s400/Pigeonholes.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br /><b>A helpful analogy</b><br /><br />For the purposes of this blog post, imagine one of those old-fashioned collections of pigeonholes, in which hotel keys and letters are stored (see above). Furthermore, imagine that each one of the pigeonholes represents a piece of time, and that the events of that time are written inside a single envelope within each pigeonhole. Due to "time's arrow", as the physicists call it, we cannot open these envelopes in any arbitrary order — we must proceed sequentially through the pigeonholes (perhaps starting at the top-left of the collection).<br /><br />At any given moment, we can read the contents of one pigeonhole only — we call this the "present". We have opened all of the envelopes leading up this one envelope — we call this the "past". We cannot go back and read those envelopes again, but instead we have to remember their contents, perhaps relying on our own memory, or perhaps we wrote a few brief notes at the time. All of the remaining envelopes remain unopened — we call this the "future".**<br /><br />In spite of our lack of knowledge, we are interested in the contents of the unopened envelopes, because that would tell us what will happen to us next. Perhaps we don't want too many details about some of those envelopes, because one of them tells us when, where and how we will die — that envelope may be best left sealed until we get there!<br /><br />However, the other envelopes contain information that it would be valuable to know beforehand. For example, in the wine industry they will tell us about future grape-growing seasons, about future wine-making techniques, about future wine-consumption trends, and about future marketing and selling opportunities. A peek into some of those envelopes would make a lot of people rest more easily at night.<br /><br />But, since we cannot peek, we instead use guesses, predictions or forecasts — we hold the envelopes up to the light, and we try to read what is written inside.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YCeVj_npUPo/WuiHtRKrbWI/AAAAAAAAAMU/90Yj5ISN1Y8-HzMraj3tRUp8pXf1arjKwCLcBGAs/s1600/two-up.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="305" data-original-width="283" height="200" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YCeVj_npUPo/WuiHtRKrbWI/AAAAAAAAAMU/90Yj5ISN1Y8-HzMraj3tRUp8pXf1arjKwCLcBGAs/s200/two-up.gif" width="185" /></a></div><br /><b>Guesses</b><br /><br />Anyone can make guesses. Every time we call heads or tails when flipping a coin we are making a guess. So, we all understand guesses, because we can all do it.<br /><br />Sometimes we make what we call an "educated guess", which simply means that we have some previous information that might improve the success of our guessing. However, even this does not involve any formal procedure for making the guess — we merely modify our guess in some subjective way, based on what we already know.<br /><br />There is nothing intrinsically wrong with guessing — after all, we will be right some percentage of the time. Indeed, the old finance "40% Rule" says that one can look good simply by following any proposition with a 40% probability (see <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-do-pundits-never-get-it-wrong-call-a-40-chance-1519662425#comments_secto">How do pundits never get it wrong? Call a 40% chance</a>).<br /><br />The basic issue, however, is that guesses almost always involve either optimism or pessimism — people guess the outcome that appeals to them at the moment, either because they want some particular thing to happen or they want to stop something. There is too much unhelpful emotion in guessing.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cOHLODqGUPE/WuiIujjHKqI/AAAAAAAAAMc/WGS2o_KV3C8lSrU-tJ9dn-k8lVimJflJACLcBGAs/s1600/inthecards.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="317" data-original-width="348" height="181" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cOHLODqGUPE/WuiIujjHKqI/AAAAAAAAAMc/WGS2o_KV3C8lSrU-tJ9dn-k8lVimJflJACLcBGAs/s200/inthecards.gif" width="200" /></a></div><br /><b>Predictions</b><br /><br />Predictions might lie at the other extreme from guesses, in that there is supposedly an explicit method being used to produce the prediction. However, the method of producing the prediction is often not revealed, so that exactly how predictions differ from guesses is not always clear.<br /><br />A prediction simply declares: "This is what will happen next." This approach leaves the door open for charlatans to make predictions, just as much as it does for people with a serious method of prediction. The world of illusions masquerades as "magic" solely based on this principle. Believing in magic is like believing in Santa Claus — it is fun as a form of entertainment, but it should not be taken too seriously (except by the very young).<br /><br />This, then, is the basic issue with predictions, that there is no known method of making them repeatable (intuition, crystal balls, tarot cards, consulting prophets, etc). I can predict the weather in any way I like, just as I can predict the outcome of tomorrow's football match, whether or not I tell you how I am doing it.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Sz5FZKgyaYg/WuiJ8rcuq8I/AAAAAAAAAMo/Vd5wz5w267cyQ-mTUpS4B2wfRS6pmPBlACLcBGAs/s1600/Upp.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="1552" height="170" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Sz5FZKgyaYg/WuiJ8rcuq8I/AAAAAAAAAMo/Vd5wz5w267cyQ-mTUpS4B2wfRS6pmPBlACLcBGAs/s400/Upp.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br /><b>Forecasts</b><br /><br />The difference between prediction and forecasting is pretty simple. Forecasting says: "If things continue the way they have in the past, then this is what will happen next." Prediction leaves out the caveat, and simply declares: "This is what will happen next." For example, we cannot forecast the result of a single toss of a coin, but we can forecast the overall outcome of a long series of tosses; on the other hand, we <i>could</i> predict the result of a single toss of a coin.<br /><br />So, forecasts involve the relative probabilities of future events, whereas predictions are usually presented as being more certain. Forecasters do not usually eliminate alternative possible futures, they simply claim that they have small probabilities of occurrence. Dealing with a probabilistic world is not always easy for people (see <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-way-to-think-about-probabilities-1526567307" target="_blank">The best way to think about probabilities</a>).<br /><br />So, technically, "weather forecasting" is not the same as "weather prediction"; and the various weather bureaus around the world insist that what they are doing is forecasting the most likely weather not prediction the future. They do not have a crystal ball, just a bunch of equations. In a <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/10/statistical-variance-and-global-warming.html">previous post</a>, I noted that people are actually smarter than the skeptics think. We keep records (ie. we describe the world), we think about the patterns observed in those records (ie. we explain the world), and we work out how we might respond (ie. we try to forecast the future). So, weather forecasting is not necessarily a futile exercise, as many people have suggested (see my blog post on <a href="http://phylonetworks.blogspot.com/2015/11/foretelling-weather.html">Foretelling the weather</a>.)<br /><br />Forecasts often involve some mathematical model — we feed information about the present and the past into the mathematical equation(s), and a forecast comes out the other end. As an example, in my post on <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/09/getting-question-right.html">Getting the question right</a>, I presented a couple of simple economic models, and used one of them "to explore possible forecasts for future [wine] export growth."<br /><br />The basic downside to forecasts is that the future is often disconnected from the present and the past. The forecasters have only the present (which we can measure) and the past (which we have recorded) — if either of them turns out to be irrelevant, then the forecasters don't have any more ability than anyone else to talk about the future. There are "unforeseen circumstances" that can arise, and when they do all, forecasts go out the window. For example, tomorrow's weather forecast is unlikely to be correct if a volcano erupts overnight. If you treat a forecast as a prediction, then you are likely to be disappointed in the outcome (for an example, see <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-costs-how-much-how-the-oil-rally-took-forecasters-by-surprise-1525608000" target="_blank">How the oil rally took forecasters by surprise</a>).<br /><br />Furthermore, different mathematical models can produce different forecasts, so that there is much gnashing of teeth during any discussions about the appropriate model to use. This is at the heart of many discussions about Global Warming, for instance. To return to my analogy, changing weather patterns are self-evident when we compare today's envelope to the ones we have opened in the past, but it is not always obvious how to use this information to think about the unopened ones.<br /><br />I noted in a <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/04/artificial-intelligence-in-wine.html">previous post</a> that forecasts are problematic no matter how they are implemented, so that the modern reliance on Artificial Intelligence (AI) will not necessarily help. Nevertheless, the AI forecasts are expected to improve through time, as more and more data are gathered, and the AI system continually adjusts itself based on newly found patterns in the data (ie. they take the newly opened envelopes seriously).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YEVPNjzq-yg/WuiLTrMTlwI/AAAAAAAAAM0/W5mUFBupam0JyLp1anr-FK-v_zrEmnNoQCLcBGAs/s1600/Highpressure.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="727" data-original-width="1299" height="223" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YEVPNjzq-yg/WuiLTrMTlwI/AAAAAAAAAM0/W5mUFBupam0JyLp1anr-FK-v_zrEmnNoQCLcBGAs/s400/Highpressure.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br /><b>A few wine-related examples</b><br /><br />(i)<br />Consider the following forecasting example, which is of interest to grape growers in California (see <a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-climate-california-20171205-htmlstory.html" target="_blank">Climate scientists see alarming new threat to California</a>).<br /><br />The most recent drought in California was caused by a high-pressure system in the north Pacific. A low-pressure system circulates air clockwise, while a high-pressure system circulates air anti-clockwise. Therefore, north-Pacific low-pressure systems direct the flow of moist tropical air towards California, while high-pressure systems direct that air toward Alaska, instead. So, with a low-pressure system it rains in California (and there is a drought in Alaska), and with a high-pressure system it rains in Alaska (and there is a drought in California).<br /><br />For the wine business, then, the important forecast is whether the future holds the prospect of more high-pressure ridges in the northern Pacific. The current forecasting models say that, if the polar ice-cap continues to melt, then: "yes".<br /><br />Note the three components of the forecast: (i) the "past", which consists of observations of the behavior of high- and low-pressure weather systems; (ii) the "present", which consist of observations of melting ice up north; and (iii) the "if", which relates to whether the past and current situations will continue into the future. Points (i) and (ii) refer to envelopes that we have already opened. Point (iii) is the basic assumption of forecasting that makes it different from a guess or a prediction.<br /><br />(ii)<br />Another recent example of forecasting is in the new book edited by Kym Anderson and Vicente Pinilla (2018) <i>Wine Globalization: a New Comparative History</i> (Cambridge University Press). This book (and its companion data volume) provides an extensive coverage of all sorts of wine-related data from 1835 to 2015, intended to illustrate time trends in the wine industry as a whole. This is ideal base material for forecasting, because it quantitatively lists the contents of all previous envelopes, plus the present envelopes. Here, we can genuinely say that if things continue the way they are, then the immediate future can reasonably be forecast; and this is what happens in Chapter 18 of the book (by Kym Anderson and Glyn Wittwer: "Projecting global wine markets to 2025").<br /><br />Mind you, the book also illustrates the potential folly of trying to extend forecasts too far into the future — after all, even weather bureaus only produce 10-day forecasts. Things do not "continue the same" for long, and the wine industry in every country provides good examples of ups and downs. For instance, the European Union once dominated world wine exports (even as recently as 1988 it accounted for c. 80% of exports), but it no longer does so (&lt;50% in 2014) — if we want to extend this downward trend indefinitely, there must come a time when the EU has no wine exports at all!<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rsJWkX0eaSc/WuijaDXP8rI/AAAAAAAAANE/B6JpgTkOvAcuN8bCL5oNAfodYA1MNsElQCLcBGAs/s1600/sports.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="311" data-original-width="784" height="126" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rsJWkX0eaSc/WuijaDXP8rI/AAAAAAAAANE/B6JpgTkOvAcuN8bCL5oNAfodYA1MNsElQCLcBGAs/s320/sports.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />(iii)<br />Finally, a much earlier example of forecasting was the attempt in 1990 by Orley Ashenfelter to forecast the future quality of Bordeaux red-wine vintages, based on observed relationships between vintage quality and summer temperature. In a previous blog post (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/08/fifty-years-of-bordeaux-vintages.html" target="_blank">Fifty years of Bordeaux vintages</a>), I noted that his forecast for the 1989 vintage was spot on, while his forecast for the 1986 vintage was way off. This inconsistency answers the question recently posed by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-10/how-to-judge-wine-without-tasting-it" target="_blank">Peter R. Orszag</a>: "An economist’s method predicts a vintage’s quality using only statistics. Why hasn’t it caught on?" More consistency is needed, that's why.<br /><br /><b>Issues with forecasting</b><br /><br />I cannot finish this post without mentioning one further characteristic of forecasts that we all need to be aware of — some events are consistently much easier to forecast that are others. I once wrote a whole blog post about this, using sports forecasting as my example: <a href="http://guestblog.scientopia.org/2012/08/04/forecasting-and-predicting-sports-results/" target="_blank">Forecasting and predicting sports results</a>. [Please ignore the fact that the post claims to have been written by someone named "Christina Pikas" — the file has been corrupted, but that blog is now defunct and I cannot get it fixed.]<br /><br />The point of the example is that it is easier to forecast sports events that are played until a specified goal is reached, compared to sports events that terminate at a specified time. For example, a tennis match proceeds until someone wins two sets (or three in some competitions), while a basketball game ends at the moment the buzzer is sounded. In the latter case, the game situation even one second before or one second after the buzzer is immaterial, and therefore forecasting the situation precisely at the buzzer is very hard. In one case (tennis) you are forecasting general superiority of the players, and in the other (basketball) you are forecasting a specified moment in history.<br /><br />Keep this distinction in mind when you are evaluating a forecast — what chance did the forecaster actually have of ever getting it right?<br /><br /><b>Conclusion</b><br /><br />Don't take a guess, and don't make predictions. Forecasts do have their limitations, but they can also do a lot for us.<br /><br /><hr /><br />* The title of the best-selling book by Ian Ayres, <i>Super Crunchers: How Anything Can Be Predicted</i>, is a classic example of confusing the words "prediction" and "forecasting". The book is an interesting discussion of using Big Data for forecasting, but it never once mentions oracles (ie. predictions).<br /><br />** This idea comes from Fred Hoyle's novel <i>October the First is too Late</i>.David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-44839114981600891852018-05-14T00:30:00.000+02:002018-05-14T00:30:00.434+02:0011 tasters and 20 wines, and very little consensusIn my previous post about wine-quality scores (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/04/why-comparing-wine-quality-scores-might.html">Why comparing wine-quality scores might make no sense</a>), I outlined why it is often (usually?) a bad idea to mathematically compare the numbers — even when the scales look the same, the scoring systems are probably <b><i>not</i></b> the same, so that we cannot tell what any similarities or differences in scores actually mean.<br /><br />I also provided a list of blog posts in which I have previously illustrated just how diverse are the different scoring schemes among critics. What I have not done, until now, is discuss the best example that I know of, where it is clear that many members of a single group of wine tasters had a different idea of what the wine-quality numbers should mean.<br /><br />The tasting I am referring to is what has become known as the Judgment of Paris. I have previously provided an introduction, for anyone not familiar this event (<a href="http://www.academicwino.com/2016/08/judgment-of-paris.html/" target="_blank">A mathematical analysis of the Judgment of Paris</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-adsf193fRQk/WteJyLzT9DI/AAAAAAAAAJo/d2ppxmOuQegcZzXaIqXUsyH510ukjJWjwCLcBGAs/s1600/judge.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-adsf193fRQk/WteJyLzT9DI/AAAAAAAAAJo/d2ppxmOuQegcZzXaIqXUsyH510ukjJWjwCLcBGAs/s1600/judge.jpg" /></a></div><br />My interest in this tasting actually has nothing to do with its social interest or importance — here, I am solely interested in the fact that the data highlight almost all of the mathematical problems with evaluating wine quality using numbers. Nominally, the 11 wine-tasters were using the same 20-point wine-quality scale, but in reality there was a different scoring scheme for each person — that is, there are clear differences in their <b><i>interpretation</i></b> of the 20-point scale.<br /><br />For us, this means that there was a lack of repeatability among the wine-quality assessments, and therefore severe problems with taking average quality scores.<br /><br /><b>Background</b><br /><br />The tasting was organized by Steven Spurrier and Patricia Gallagher in 1976. Its fame derives from the fact that it (deliberately) coincided with the US Bicentennary. Its infamy derives from the fact that several people with a modicum of mathematical knowledge have been criticizing it ever since then (these are listed in the blog post referred to above).<br /><br />The situation is this: 9 French people from diverse wine backgrounds were invited to a tasting of French and Californian wines, 10 cabernet-based and 10 chardonnay-based. All 11 people (including the organizers) were asked to score the wines on a 20-point scale, without further instruction — they were all blind to the origins of the wines (including Spurrier and Gallagher).<br /><br />The outcome was a set of scores based on whatever scoring system the taster chose (ie. their own personal criteria), but their results were all presented on the same scale (ie. a number from 0-20). There is thus no reason whatsoever to assume that the numbers are comparable, unless we can demonstrate that the tasters were all using the same scoring system.<br /><br />There is one technical difficulty concerning the data for the white wines, which I have previously presented (<a href="http://www.academicwino.com/2017/02/no-data-from-judgment-of-paris.html/" target="_blank">Why we no longer have the data from the Judgment of Paris</a>). For our purposes here, I have left the scores as originally reported, even though the numbers do not add up to the reported totals.<br /><br /><b>The data</b><br /><br />I am not interested here in evaluating either the wines or the people, so that both will remain anonymous for most of this blog post. I have presented the original data in the first pair of graphs, with the scores shown vertically for each taster (horizontally). Each wine is represented by either a + or an <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: &quot;helvetica neue&quot; , &quot;arial&quot; , &quot;helvetica&quot; , sans-serif;">x</span>, so that if two wines were given the same score by the same taster then the result looks like *. Note, also, that the tasters are not in the same order in the two graphs, but are simply listed in the order of decreasing average score for that wine type.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aMby2Pbw4Lg/WtXQb7ypWCI/AAAAAAAAAJI/z1yBE-NhU64L8kMY5bz2Rh83glgQiSqDACEwYBhgL/s1600/Cabernet.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Scores for the Judgment of Paris cabernet wines" border="0" data-original-height="863" data-original-width="1086" height="317" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aMby2Pbw4Lg/WtXQb7ypWCI/AAAAAAAAAJI/z1yBE-NhU64L8kMY5bz2Rh83glgQiSqDACEwYBhgL/s400/Cabernet.gif" title="Scores for the Judgment of Paris cabernet wines" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tbAxwpGuPLw/WtXQb2UXYvI/AAAAAAAAAJE/L3nJTywmTfoCX1geUFAKPMGu8TrQA9bRgCEwYBhgL/s1600/Chardonnay.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Scores for the Judgment of Paris chardonnay" border="0" data-original-height="866" data-original-width="1088" height="317" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tbAxwpGuPLw/WtXQb2UXYvI/AAAAAAAAAJE/L3nJTywmTfoCX1geUFAKPMGu8TrQA9bRgCEwYBhgL/s400/Chardonnay.gif" title="Scores for the Judgment of Paris chardonnay wines" width="400" /></a></div><br />Two things are immediately obvious: (i) some assessors scored higher than others, and (ii) some assessors used a much greater range of scores. The mathematical consequences of these characteristics will be explained below.<br /><br />For the moment, though, let's look at some of the features of the data. For example, the top score for the red wines (17) was awarded by five different people, although it was given to four different wines. So, there is a ceiling for the upper score but not for the lowest score, which varied greatly between tasters (from 2 to 8).<br /><br />Labeling the tasters A-K (in alphabetical order), then we can say the following: (a) at one extreme, G and K produced one of the highest or lowest two scores only 3 times, while (b) at the other extreme, E and J produced one of the highest or lowest two scores 13 times out of 20 wines. That is, some of the tasters used low scores quite consistently.<br /><br />If we were to drop the top and bottom scores for each of the 20 wines (ie. 40 scores), as is often done for sporting competitions where value judgments are involved, then: (a) at one extreme, B would never have a point dropped, and G would have only one dropped (for being the highest), while (b) at the other extreme, J would lose at least 6 out of 20, and C and D would lose at least 5 out of 20 scores.<br /><br />These patterns can be summarized as shown in the next graph, where each point represents one of the assessors, with their average score shown horizontally and their score range (maximum minus minimum) shown vertically.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7x9JbS6JE2M/WtXQcG9bX0I/AAAAAAAAAJM/TuNoxVm4wwsrDVyQSRmHA7YOPUascUQrQCEwYBhgL/s1600/AverageRange.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Average scores versus the variability of the scores for the Judgment of Paris" border="0" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="1137" height="305" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7x9JbS6JE2M/WtXQcG9bX0I/AAAAAAAAAJM/TuNoxVm4wwsrDVyQSRmHA7YOPUascUQrQCEwYBhgL/s400/AverageRange.gif" title="Average scores versus the variability of the scores for the Judgment of Paris" width="400" /></a></div><br />Clearly, some tasters scored consistently high (those at the bottom-right of the graph), while others used a broad range of scores (at the upper-left), which must consequently lower their average score. The two non-French tasters are shown in pink. Obviously, including or excluding these two assessors can be expected to make a difference to the calculation of the average score for any given wine.<br /><br />Finally, we can try to summarize the whole thing using a multivariate ordination. This technique is described in a previous blog post (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/11/summarizing-multi-dimensional-wine-data.html" target="_blank">Summarizing multi-dimensional wine data as graphs, Part 1: ordinations</a>) — in this case, the method tries to put the tasters in some order based on their scoring patterns. This order is shown in the final graph, where the tasters are named — at the top are those people who scored highest, with the lowest (ie. using a lot of the score range) at the bottom.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-frk2KbX9IfY/WtXQcstZnrI/AAAAAAAAAJQ/f00GdsACwV4JLaht4p90nAmhabMMblz6QCLcBGAs/s1600/Ordering.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Multivariate ordering of the score patterns for the tasters at the Judgment of Paris" border="0" data-original-height="1155" data-original-width="667" height="400" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-frk2KbX9IfY/WtXQcstZnrI/AAAAAAAAAJQ/f00GdsACwV4JLaht4p90nAmhabMMblz6QCLcBGAs/s400/Ordering.gif" title="Multivariate ordering of the score patterns for the tasters at the Judgment of Paris" width="230" /></a></div><br />There are five people whose scoring schemes were rather similar to each other, clustered in the middle of the order — Claude Dubois-Millot and Aubert de Villaine are at what is called the centroid (the weighted average), making them the "middle-scoring" tasters. The other six people deviated more or less strongly in their scoring schemes, from this middle ground of five people, with some of them diametrically opposed to each other in their behavior.<br /><br /><b>What does this all mean?</b><br /><br />So, what is the importance of this obvious variation in scoring schemes among the tasters? Mathematically, this has an enormous influence on calculating average scores for the wines. In effect, those people who use a large part of the scoring scale will have a disproportionate effect on the average score.<br /><br />Consider this simple example of two people scoring two wines on a 20-point scale:<br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="white-space: nowrap;" valign="top"><br />Taster A<br />Taster B<br />Average </td><td align="center" style="white-space: nowrap;" valign="top">&nbsp;Wine 1<br />&nbsp;16<br />&nbsp;18<br />&nbsp;17 </td><td align="center" style="white-space: nowrap;" valign="top">&nbsp;Wine 2<br />&nbsp;18<br />&nbsp;14<br />&nbsp;16 </td></tr></tbody></table>The two tasters disagree as to the relative quality of the two wines (A prefers 2 and B prefers 1). However, Taster B uses a greater range of scores than does Taster A, and consequently the average scores for the wines reflect Taster B's preference, rather than Taster A's — using a low score greatly down-weights the average score for that wine.<br /><br />So, the people who had the biggest effect on the average scores of the Judgment of Paris wines are those listed at the bottom of the final graph above — and the further down the list they are then the bigger was their effect.<br /><br /><b>Conclusions</b><br /><br />We cannot possibly work out whether the tasters agreed about the wines or not — each person had their own scoring scheme (although five of them were similar), and so we cannot work out how to interpret their scores. And yet, their scores were averaged, and then presented to the world as having some meaning about the quality of the wines. This was mathematical nonsense, because it allows some of the people to have a disproportionate effect on the outcome.<br /><br />Not unexpectedly, the results of this Paris tasting were not repeatable at the time (see <a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/04/was-judgment-of-paris-repeatable.html" target="_blank">Was the Judgment of Paris repeatable?</a>), least of all by those people who used an objective wine-quality scheme rather than a subjective one (eg. the Vintners Club, where all of the tasters must use the UCDavis scoring scheme — <a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/09/did-california-wine-tasters-agree-with.html" target="_blank">Did California wine-tasters agree with the results of the Judgment of Paris?</a>).<br /><br />Clearly, if everyone scores identically (ie. uses the same scoring scheme) then there would be no problem (as at the Vintners Club); and if everyone scores differently there would be little purpose to averaging the scores. At a tasting like the Judgment of Paris, the obvious procedure is that everyone must get together beforehand and agree about which scoring scheme will be used, as happens at many modern-day wine shows.<br /><br />The only alternative is to try some fancy mathematics on the scores, to try to make them comparable, before averaging them. I will write about this idea in a later post.David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-17267235376844842182018-05-07T00:30:00.000+02:002018-05-07T00:30:01.639+02:00Wine monopolies, and the availability of wineTo some people, the concept of a government-controlled monopoly is like a red rag to a bull — basically, they "abhor governmental pricing and entry controls as manifestly causing waste and inefficiency, while denying consumers the range of price and service options they desire" (<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2241306" target="_blank">Paul Stephen Dempsey</a>).<br /><br />For example, we could cite the example of Santiago (in Chile), which turned its transport system from a commercial one that earned a profit of $60 million per year into a government-controlled one that now loses $600 million per year, instead (see <a href="http://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2008/Mungerbus.html" target="_blank">Planning order, causing chaos: Transantiago</a>). However, we should not conclude from this that all public transportation industries are universally reviled as either wasteful or inefficient (cf. trains in Europe or Japan).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-M04qT6zaPfU/WuHJhdreSUI/AAAAAAAAAKo/DjslT2WaBvM7nqCZdfgLenmm7nVERanUgCLcBGAs/s1600/Monopoly_banker.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="245" data-original-width="342" height="142" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-M04qT6zaPfU/WuHJhdreSUI/AAAAAAAAAKo/DjslT2WaBvM7nqCZdfgLenmm7nVERanUgCLcBGAs/s200/Monopoly_banker.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br />It should not come as a surprise that a number of government-regulated locales exist in the wine industry, as well, notably in the USA (eg. <a href="http://www.lcb.pa.gov/" target="_blank">Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board</a>), Canada (eg. <a href="http://www.lcbo.com/" target="_blank">Liquor Control Board of Ontario</a>), Norway (<a href="https://www.vinmonopolet.no/" target="_blank">Vinmonopolet</a>) and Sweden (<a href="https://www.systembolaget.se/" target="_blank">Systembolaget</a>).*<sup>1</sup> Similarly, there is no need to <b><i>assume</i></b> that pricing and availability of wines in any of these regulated environments is in any way inadequate, for the consumers; but this is definitely worth investigating.<br /><br />In this blog post, I present a specific example of a wine monopoly at work. I first encountered wine retailing as a consumer in Australia, where liquor retail licenses are issued by the government but there is otherwise little interference; and I now live in Sweden, where liquor retail is government-owned (but not trade sales), although <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systembolaget" target="_blank">Systembolaget</a> is operated as an independent retail entity. As a consumer, I have therefore seen both types of systems.<br /><br />My intention here is not to decide whether a monopoly is "good" or "bad", but simply to describe a monopoly at work. It seems to me that I am no worse off in Sweden than I was in Australia, but the systems definitely work differently.*<sup>2</sup><br /><br /><b>Where Swedes get alcohol</b><br /><br />The Swedish Association of Alcohol and Drug Information (<a href="https://www.can.se/" target="_blank">Centralförbundet för alkohol- och narkotika-upplysning</a>) estimated that, <a href="https://www.can.se/Publikationer/rapporter/alkoholkonsumtionen-i-sverige-2016/" target="_blank">during 2016</a>, Swedes acquired alcoholic beverages in the following ways:<br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top">Systembolaget<br />Traveller imports<br />Restaurants<br />Low-alcohol beer<br />Smuggled drinks<br />Home-made<br />Internet shops </td><td align="right" valign="top">63.2%<br />12.5%<br />10.8%<br />5.5%<br />4.9%<br />1.8%<br />1.3% </td></tr></tbody></table>Low-alcohol beer is available for sale in supermarkets, etc, while all stronger drinks (&gt;3.5% alcohol) are available for retail sale only in Systembolaget's shops. Trade sales (restaurants, caterers, bars, etc) can be made direct from the importers (remember, Sweden makes very little wine of its own). There is free trade among all countries of the European Union, so that internet sales within the Union are straightforward. Traveller imports have dropped from 25.7% in 2004, given that there is no longer duty-free travel within the European Union (with certain specified exemptions).<br /><br />So, we can see that Systembolaget is responsible for nearly two-thirds of alcohol acquisition within a country of c. 10 million people, more than 75% of whom are of drink-purchasing age (&gt;20 years; drinking age is &gt;18 years). That's a lot of customers for a single retail entity, with a reported alcohol consumption of 9 liters per adult per year. For 2017, Systembolaget <a href="http://press.systembolaget.se/systembolagets-arsstamma-4/">reported</a> net sales equal to US$ 3.4 billion, with a 1% profit (which goes to the government).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6LVbsXbkd3w/WuHcPgtbp9I/AAAAAAAAALE/6yAjO-OhyhYJPir6KYX9NLAcOJmXXHA6ACLcBGAs/s1600/1429113353_ta2cd013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="280" data-original-width="468" height="191" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6LVbsXbkd3w/WuHcPgtbp9I/AAAAAAAAALE/6yAjO-OhyhYJPir6KYX9NLAcOJmXXHA6ACLcBGAs/s320/1429113353_ta2cd013.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><b>Sytembolaget</b><br /><br />I have written before about the fact that Systembolaget manages to sell mid- and high-quality wines more cheaply than in Britain (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/06/why-is-wine-often-cheaper-in-sweden.html" target="_blank">Why is wine often cheaper in Sweden than elsewhere?</a>), precisely <i>because</i> it is government-regulated, and therefore the profit margin is controlled by legislation.*<sup>3</sup> Indeed, the <a href="https://www.omsystembolaget.se/english/?_ga=2.60594413.1394626080.1524651311-204061057.1524651311" target="_blank">stated objective</a> of Systembolaget is: "To minimize alcohol-related problems by selling alcohol in a responsible way, without profit motive."<br /><br />Here, I discuss the range of beverages available to Swedes, which is at least as wide as most other places — this results from the sheer size of Systembolaget, along with Sweden's membership of the European Union. In 2017, Systembolaget <a href="http://press.systembolaget.se/systembolagets-arsstamma-4/">reported</a> selling (in millions of liters):<br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top">Spirits<br />Wines<br />Beer (&gt;3.5%)<br />Cider and mixed drinks<br />Alcohol-free drinks</td><td align="right" valign="top">19.2<br />199.5<br />242.0<br />19.0<br />3.4</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Systembolaget has c. 438 shops throughout the country, plus another c. 500 agencies where products can be ordered and received.*<sup>4</sup> So, no Swede lives very far from a service point. This is important because, while home delivery is available in a number of places for a fee, there is no delivery cost if you collect the product yourself — you simply ask for it to be delivered to your nearest pickup point. There is internet ordering available for all products, except for the special situation where a product is still available in a particular store but is no longer available in the central warehouse — you need to ask the staff in your store to have that product transferred from the other store (for free).<br /><br />When foreigners enter one of these stores, they sometimes make comments about the supposed lack of diversity among the wines available. For example, see Dan Berger's melodramatic <a href="https://napavalleyregister.com/wine/columnists/dan-berger/buying-wine-in-sweden----a-vinous-wasteland/article_9aab053c-eec7-5bc7-8bc5-39c5176a92e7.html" target="_blank">Buying wine in Sweden — 'a vinous wasteland'</a>. However, this is like going into Costco to find out what wines are available in the USA! There are, in fact, c. 17,500 alcohol products available in Systembolaget in any given year.<br /><br />In the case of Systembolaget, the majority of the interesting wines are not to be found on the shelves (called the <i>Ordinarie sortiment</i>), at least not for long, and not in most stores. Wines (and beers &amp; ciders) are released when the new vintages become available, and they can disappear quite quickly. Below, I explain the current retail arrangements, in the interests of illustrating how a monopoly can work.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ObWDhy_VZYk/WuHLDxaR6WI/AAAAAAAAAK0/Ryk8iufPIkkB6ZP-4RAihaK8bTlMyVdEwCLcBGAs/s1600/1200x630bb.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="547" height="113" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ObWDhy_VZYk/WuHLDxaR6WI/AAAAAAAAAK0/Ryk8iufPIkkB6ZP-4RAihaK8bTlMyVdEwCLcBGAs/s200/1200x630bb.gif" width="200" /></a></div><br /><b>Current arrangements</b><br /><br />First, I will just list the different categories of alcohol availability for Swedes, and this will be followed by some discussion of the important differences between them.<br /><br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top">Ordinary assortment<br />Occasional assortments:<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Small quantities<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Web releases<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Seasonal releases<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Local and small-scale<br />Order assortment<br />Private import<br />Auctions<br />EU ordering </td><td align="left" valign="top">Ordinarie sortiment<br />Tillfälliga sortiment:<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Små partier<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Webblanseringar<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Säsongslanseringar<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Lokalt och småskaligt<br />Beställningssortiment<br />Privat import<br />Dryckesauktioner<br />&nbsp; </td></tr></tbody></table><br /><b>Ordinary assortment</b><br /><br />The <i>Ordinarie sortiment</i> refers to the products that are stocked in the Systembolaget shops. There is a subset that is in every shop (called the <i>Fast sortiment</i>), plus a collection from which each local manager can choose the rest of their store's stock (depending on the local clientele). All of the products have been tasted and approved by Systembolaget's staff, who provide taste descriptions, along with suggestions for accompanying food.<br /><br />At the time of writing, there are 2,565 products in this assortment. If a particular product is not in your local store, then it can be ordered from the central warehouse — delivery can take up to 4 working days, depending on where you live (for me, it is 2-3 days). The assortment is updated 4 times per year, with additions, deletions, and new vintages (or other releases). The suppliers are expected to have sufficient stock of each product to last at least 9 months.<br /><br />What's in the shops is often the mass-market products, for those people who want the standard stuff, the cheapest stuff, or who are making impulse purchases. For example, the two biggest-selling whiskies do not come from either Scotland or Kentucky, but are actually both Canadian grain whiskies — and you will find box-loads of both of them stacked in every store in Sweden. If you want the other commonly known whiskies, then they are there, but you have to look a bit harder.<br /><br />So, yes, if you insist on drinking your wine the same day you buy it, then what's in the store will limit you; but if you are prepared to place an order ahead of time, then you can do much, much better in terms of choice.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-J8VYG8mVg4M/WuXhjcfHklI/AAAAAAAAALs/7FzBLwGOlzY1gZf-rIS31eQBgyAO2jt4ACLcBGAs/s1600/Order.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="441" data-original-width="987" height="142" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-J8VYG8mVg4M/WuXhjcfHklI/AAAAAAAAALs/7FzBLwGOlzY1gZf-rIS31eQBgyAO2jt4ACLcBGAs/s320/Order.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br /><b>Small quantities</b><br /><br />The <i>Små partier</i> refers to collections that are released 20 times per year (c. 60-90 products per release). The products will appear only in a selected few shops, depending on the quantities available, but they can all be ordered from the central warehouse (which is what I usually do, since my local store is not one of the selected few). How long the products remain available after release is determined entirely by the quantities —once they run out, that is it (so I always order within an hour of the release, just to be safe).<br /><br />This is the assortment from which I get most of my wines, because it is here that the interesting stuff appears. What is available varies from year to year, depending on what the importers can lay their hands on. The 1,605 products released during 2017 consisted of:<br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top">Red wines<br />White wines<br />Other wines<br />Spirits<br />Beer and cider </td><td align="right" valign="top">684<br />341<br />149<br />112<br />319 </td></tr></tbody></table>The "other" category consists of rosé, sparkling, sweet and fortified wines.<br /><br />If we use the price categories defined by Thach et al. (see <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/03/how-many-wine-prices-are-there.html" target="_blank">How many wine prices are there?</a>), then the numbers of wines were as follows:<br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top">Everyday wines<br />Better wines<br />Premium wines<br />Affordable Luxury<br />Luxury wines<br />Icon wines<br />Dream wines</td><td align="right" valign="top">0<br />402<br />1,038<br />224<br />27<br />0<br />0</td></tr></tbody></table>The <i>Everyday wines</i> (&lt; US$ 10) appear in the <i>Ordinarie sortiment</i>, with the <i>Premium wines</i> (US$ 20-50) being concentrated in the <i>Små partier</i>. Most of the best QPR (quality-price ratio) wines are among the <i>Better wines</i> (US$ 10-20).<br /><br /><b>Web releases</b><br /><br />The <i>Webblanseringar</i> assortment refers to small (c. 2-30 products), and usually expensive, releases, which occur up to 35 times per year. The quantities are usually very limited (c. 6-800 bottles), and there may therefore be restricted allocations — indeed, you may miss out if you are not quick off the mark on the release date.<br /><br />I can never afford these products; but during 2017, this is what was released:<br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top">Wines<br />Spirits<br />Beers</td><td align="right" valign="top">306<br />133<br />4 </td></tr></tbody></table>Using the same price categories as above, the wines consisted of:<br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top">Everyday wines<br />Better wines<br />Premium wines<br />Affordable Luxury<br />Luxury wines<br />Icon wines<br />Dream wines</td><td align="right" valign="top">0<br />1<br />17<br />86<br />186<br />16<br />3</td></tr></tbody></table>As you can see, these are usually the more expensive releases — <i>Luxury wines</i> (US$ 100-500), <i>Icon wines</i> (US$ 500-1,000) and <i>Dream wines</i> (&gt; US$ 1,000).<br /><br /><b>Seasonal releases</b><br /><br />The <i>Säsongslanseringar</i> consist of 4 annual releases: Easter beer, Octoberfest beer, Christmas drinks, and Beaujolais nouveau. Swedes love their beers, and there are special brews released for different celebrations. The Christmas drinks include (in addition to beer): <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mulled_wine" target="_blank">glögg</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svagdricka" target="_blank">svagdricka</a>. All of the seasonal drinks appear in most of the shops, or can be ordered from the central warehouse. The products available can vary from year to year.<br /><br /><b>Local and small-scale</b><br /><br />The <i>Lokalt och småskaligt</i> releases occur 13 times per year. The products are available only in the stores within the local area of the producer (eg. Swedish wineries, breweries and distilleries) or of the importer. In other areas, you may or may not be able to order the products from the central warehouse. Once again, the products available can vary from year to year.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7_ipfpgUl1k/WuXfUqPPecI/AAAAAAAAALg/Zbah7nFNGqwOYG0iUpk_IYZHBVseY5sTQCLcBGAs/s1600/infographic-hem.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="323" data-original-width="538" height="120" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7_ipfpgUl1k/WuXfUqPPecI/AAAAAAAAALg/Zbah7nFNGqwOYG0iUpk_IYZHBVseY5sTQCLcBGAs/s200/infographic-hem.png" width="200" /></a></div><br /><b>Order assortment</b><br /><br />The <i>Beställningssortiment</i> refers to products that are not available directly from Systembolaget itself. These products are stored by the importers, in their own warehouses, and are made directly available to the catering trade (the <i>Restaurangsortiment</i>). The rest of us can often order them, too, but we have to do so via Systembolaget (and we may have to buy a case, as the minimum quantity, rather than single bottles).<br /><br />At the time of writing, there are 12,935 products in this assortment. Delivery to your local store is free, and can take up to 8 working days, depending on the activity of the importer. The assortment is updated at the collective whims of the importers and their suppliers; and the online catalog is not always accurate as to the current availability. I get quite a few of my wines from this assortment — for example, if I read an interesting overseas wine review, then the wines may be available in the <i>Beställningssortiment</i>.<br /><br />There are a couple of hundred importers in Sweden, bringing in stuff from everywhere on the planet. There is <a href="http://www.bkwine.com/features/more/swedish-wine-importers/" target="_blank">An extensive list of importers of wine to Sweden</a>, plus a <a href="https://www.bestwineimporters.com/database-of-wine-importers-from-sweden/" target="_blank">Sweden - Wine Importers &amp; Distributors Database</a> (which has verified information about 198 wine importers and distributors), and a full listing of the <a href="http://www.bkwine.com/features/more/swedens-10-largest-wine-importers/" target="_blank">50 biggest suppliers to Systembolaget</a> (based on dollar value, not volume).<br /><br /><b>Private import</b><br /><br />Since we ordinary citizens do not have import licenses for alcohol, Systembolaget will import things for us — that is, it will order any alcohol product from anywhere, provided we can give them the necessary contact details of the supplier. Systembolaget will charge a 20% mark-up for doing this, plus all of the associated transportation costs, import duties and other taxes. So, this is not necessarily a particularly economic procedure for buying anything.<br /><br />Confusingly, there are also products available from the Swedish importers that they have not listed as part of their <i>Beställningssortiment</i>. These products <i>can</i> usually be ordered, via a formal <i>Privat import</i> request. We will almost always have to buy a case, not single bottles; and this process can take anything up to a month; so I rarely use it.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hLFJFRA2Yec/WuXd3SE-oII/AAAAAAAAALU/2w5Q8yri2-46DZVc4chnOYj2V8GKfiLcgCLcBGAs/s1600/Bukowskis.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="102" data-original-width="269" height="75" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hLFJFRA2Yec/WuXd3SE-oII/AAAAAAAAALU/2w5Q8yri2-46DZVc4chnOYj2V8GKfiLcgCLcBGAs/s200/Bukowskis.png" width="200" /></a></div><br /><b>Auctions</b><br /><br />Since retail sales of alcohol can occur only through Systembolaget, alcohol auctions need to involve this company. As a result, <a href="https://www.systembolaget.se/lanseringar/dryckesauktioner/">Systembolaget</a> have teamed with <a href="http://bukowskis.com/">Bukowskis</a> auction house, to hold online auctions 8 times per year. The only auction that I have followed had c. 700 lots, none of which could be described as bargains. I may report on this in a later post.<br /><br /><b>EU ordering</b><br /><br />There is a free-trade agreement throughout the European Union, and so alcohol is available to Swedes from anywhere within the EU.*<sup>5</sup> Mind you, this right was only formally established by a landmark case in the EU Court of Justice, as from July 2007 — as an outcome of the prior case of Rosengren et al. in the Swedish Supreme Court (<i>Högsta domstolen</i>). According to my records, I have ordered boxes of wine 6 times from the UK, 11 from Italy, 4 from Germany, 2 from Denmark, 2 from the Netherlands, and once from Spain. The main limitation for me is the transport costs — many courier companies treat Sweden as being the end of the earth, and charge accordingly.<br /><br />In addition, as I have noted in a <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/04/be-wary-of-second-chance-offers-on-ebay.html">previous post</a>, wine can also be sold privately on many of the mainland European eBay sites (eg. in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain). The wine can then easily be sent anywhere within the EU. Indeed, many European wine shops use eBay as one of their online portals. According to my records, I have have now bought wine from eBay sellers 96 times (mostly from Germany, because of the transport costs for single bottles).<br /><br />Incidentally, the EU also has allowances for bringing in duty-free alcohol from outside the EU — 1 liter of spirits or 2 liters of fortified wine or sparkling wine, plus 4 liters of still wine, plus 16 liters of beer, per person. This is handy if I visit my relatives in Australia. Mind you, we are only allowed to bring in goods free of duty, the combined value of which does not exceed €430.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jm_2gdtumYs/WuXskR6fmdI/AAAAAAAAAL8/KNvFPQpHCio6RQbtYMW4NtKIVnf1fHExQCLcBGAs/s1600/Bacall.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="833" height="152" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jm_2gdtumYs/WuXskR6fmdI/AAAAAAAAAL8/KNvFPQpHCio6RQbtYMW4NtKIVnf1fHExQCLcBGAs/s200/Bacall.gif" width="200" /></a></div><br /><b>Conclusions</b><br /><br />As far as buying wine in a liquor store is concerned, Sweden is, in practise, not all that different from anywhere else I have ever been. It is no harder or easier to make purchases, and access is no more restricted — you just have to be organized beforehand. In fact, the main differences are the broader selection (c. 17,500 products per year) and the cheaper prices in the middle and upper quality brackets in Sweden.<br /><br />On the other hand, at the cheap end, and for impulse purchases, there are some practical limitations — you can't buy strong alcohol in a food shop, for example; but you can't do that in Australia, either (in Australia, the licensed premises must be physically located outside of the supermarket). So, most of the fuss about "the Swedish alcohol monopoly" comes from people who object to government monopolies on principle, rather than because monopolies are costly or inefficient — Systembolaget is neither of these things, in practise.<br /><br />More to the point, given that liquor sales in so many countries are currently controlled by a few giant supermarket chains (eg. only two main chains in Australia), having a single chain is not all that much different in theory, let along practise.<br /><br /><hr /><br />*<sup>1</sup> It may come as a surprise to many Americans that there are still liquor-control states within the post-Prohibition USA. However, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcoholic_beverage_control_state" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a> notes that about one-quarter of the United States' population lives in the 17 liquor control or government-monopoly states (as of 2016).<br /><br />*<sup>2</sup> This is a pun. "Systembolaget" translates as "The System Company" — it was originally called simply "Systemet" ("The System").<br /><br />*<sup>3</sup> Sweden also has lower taxes on wine than does Britain (see <a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/08/european-wine-taxes-and-what-to-do.html" target="_blank">European wine taxes — and what to do about them</a>), although I would not describe either of these taxes as "small".<br /><br />*<sup>4</sup> Compare this with the Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board's 600 stores for 13 million people, and the Liquor Control Board of Ontario's 650 stores and 210 agencies for 14 million people.<br /><br />*<sup>5</sup> This differs significantly from the situation in, for example, <a href="http://www.lcb.pa.gov/Legal/Documents/001909.pdf" target="_blank">Pennsylvania</a>, where: "It is generally unlawful for anyone, other than the PLCB or the holder of a sacramental wine license, an importer’s license, or a direct wine shipper license, to import any liquor (including wine) into Pennsylvania."David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-48067334930181390842018-04-30T00:30:00.000+02:002018-05-03T19:57:03.824+02:00Wine yields and latitudeThe following post recently appeared on the American Association of Wine Economists' <a href="https://www.facebook.com/wineecon/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/2129525333740928" target="_blank">Facebook</a> page. The question posed in the post is an interesting one.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eKN8R-pFNJM/WtsdhBNTWYI/AAAAAAAAAJ4/4LWMDu6z_TwUOGJVg1Xr4ss2v-x10lhgwCLcBGAs/s1600/AAWE.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1094" data-original-width="1044" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eKN8R-pFNJM/WtsdhBNTWYI/AAAAAAAAAJ4/4LWMDu6z_TwUOGJVg1Xr4ss2v-x10lhgwCLcBGAs/s400/AAWE.gif" width="381" /></a></div><br />These <a href="https://www.facebook.com/208088912551256/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1799691750057623" target="_blank">same data</a> were published by the AAWE back in June 2017, at which time I worked out what the yields are, in fact, related to, since it apparently isn't quality. It turns out to be latitude, with <b><i>increasing</i></b> yields as one moves away from the equator, as shown in my first graph. Each point represents one of the French regions, with its latitude plotted horizontally and wine yield vertically.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-i4JaYr23Aqs/WtsjacwdKpI/AAAAAAAAAKM/hCMskzpQcf8gGBctD7uDFLTDSNu1_7umgCLcBGAs/s1600/France.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="French wine yields versus latitude" border="0" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="887" height="318" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-i4JaYr23Aqs/WtsjacwdKpI/AAAAAAAAAKM/hCMskzpQcf8gGBctD7uDFLTDSNu1_7umgCLcBGAs/s320/France.gif" title="French wine yields versus latitude" width="320" /></a></div><br />What the line on the graph indicates is that three-quarters of the variation in yield is exponentially related to latitude. The areas named are the main governmental regions of France, so they are very large, and encompass several wine regions — I simply chose the degree of latitude that runs through the region. Obviously, it would be better to have data for each wine region individually, associated with more precise latitudes.<br /><br />Interestingly, in another <a href="https://www.facebook.com/wineecon/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1884451421581655" target="_blank">AAWE post</a> we do have such data, for the 2016 winegrape yields in the wine regions of Italy. These data are shown in the next graph, where each point represents one of the Italian wine regions. The data reveal four regions (in pink) whose yield is much greater than anywhere else in Italy, or France for that matter — from the top, they are Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, Abruzzo and Puglia.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-u6athQs6f8Y/WtsjaWAiuwI/AAAAAAAAAKI/agofgiqTDtQ8ZTQc9-rKNqFOJq0JlacWACEwYBhgL/s1600/Italy.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Italian winegrape yields versus latitude" border="0" data-original-height="1710" data-original-width="891" height="640" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-u6athQs6f8Y/WtsjaWAiuwI/AAAAAAAAAKI/agofgiqTDtQ8ZTQc9-rKNqFOJq0JlacWACEwYBhgL/s640/Italy.gif" title="Italian winegrape yields versus latitude" width="333" /></a></div><br />However, as indicated by the line on the graph, the remainder of the Italian winegrape regions do show the expected relationship between yield and latitude — however, this time only a bit more than a third of the variation in yield is exponentially related to latitude. This difference (35% vs 74%) might be the result of using smaller geographical areas, or it might be related to the use of winegrape yield instead of wine yield (the latter must be less than the former).<br /><br />Finally, yet another <a href="https://www.facebook.com/208088912551256/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1828709030489228" target="_blank">AAWE post</a> shows the average wine yields for selected countries in Europe in 2008. Note that Germany, which is north, has higher yields than France, while Spain and Portugal, which are south, have lower yields than France. So, the trend between yield and latitude is repeated even at the geographical level of country.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--LxObFjd7tc/WtsmuVdxcgI/AAAAAAAAAKY/WkWxy-K2iuU1CP5MIwgwhiGiaZuyr1k8ACLcBGAs/s1600/EuropeWineYields.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="597" data-original-width="814" height="292" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--LxObFjd7tc/WtsmuVdxcgI/AAAAAAAAAKY/WkWxy-K2iuU1CP5MIwgwhiGiaZuyr1k8ACLcBGAs/s400/EuropeWineYields.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />If you want a more global perspective on yields by country, then you can check out this other AAWE post: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/wineecon/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1608202522539881" target="_blank">Average vineyard yields 2000-2015</a>.<br /><br /><b>Conclusion</b><br /><br />In western Europe, wine yields are strongly related to latitude, rather than necessarily being related to quality. However, it is well known that "correlation does not equal causation" — latitude is unlikely to be having a direct effect. Whether the proximal effect of latitude is via temperature, or some other factor such as day length or seasonal water availability, is not clear.David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-39532884673002056232018-04-23T00:30:00.000+02:002018-04-23T00:30:07.607+02:00Laube versus Suckling — do their scores relate to wine price?The short answer is: yes, and no!<br /><br />A few weeks ago I wrote about the wine-quality scores from different professionals, and what their differences might mean for us (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/03/laube-versus-suckling-their-scores.html" target="_blank">Laube versus Suckling — their scores differ, but what does that mean for us?</a>). Another issue of importance to us is whether wine quality scores are related to the prices of the wines — after all, wine could never be good value for money unless higher prices reflect higher quality. So, an obvious follow-up question is whether critics' scores relate to the prices of the wines being tasted.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-53uIR5ZRIh8/WsIHZysQ8-I/AAAAAAAAAHk/axuS8ABD998jLTVmulCzaAdWbG7tO9j1QCLcBGAs/s1600/images2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="112" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-53uIR5ZRIh8/WsIHZysQ8-I/AAAAAAAAAHk/axuS8ABD998jLTVmulCzaAdWbG7tO9j1QCLcBGAs/s200/images2.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br />I have written before about the relationship between wine price and quality (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-relationship-of-wine-quality-to.html" target="_blank">The relationship of wine quality to price</a>), noting that this often follows a simple exponential relationship, as QPR (quality-price ratio) so often does in economics. I have also noted that wine prices often have at least two very distinct price categories (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/06/luxury-wines-and-relationship-of.html" target="_blank">Luxury wines and the relationship of quality to price</a>), with different quality-price relationships. Both of these concepts are relevant to this blog post.<br /><br />The data I am looking at here is the same as for the prior post concerning James Laube and James Suckling, when they both worked for the <i>Wine Spectator</i> magazine. These data are from the "Cabernet Challenge" of 1996 (see <i>Wine Spectator</i> for September 15, 1996, pp. 32–48), in which the two James tasted 10 California Cabernet blends and 10 Bordeaux red wines from both the 1985 and 1990 vintages. This gives us 40 bottles of wine with which to compare their scores, along with the prices of those same wines, as given in the magazine article.<br /><br />These data are shown in the first graph, with each point representing a single wine, with its price indicated vertically and the quality score indicated horizontally. Note that each wine appears twice in the graph, once for Laube's score and once for Suckling's (they will thus appear as horizontal pairs, since the pairs have the same price).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-147282jLx08/WsHjnnQocdI/AAAAAAAAAHA/BW9VfcKFVyM3zXpyDj9_pQ7j_bUzfuKmACEwYBhgL/s1600/Price1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Wine price versus quality for all of the wines" border="0" data-original-height="1104" data-original-width="1310" height="336" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-147282jLx08/WsHjnnQocdI/AAAAAAAAAHA/BW9VfcKFVyM3zXpyDj9_pQ7j_bUzfuKmACEwYBhgL/s400/Price1.gif" title="Wine price versus quality for all of the wines" width="400" /></a></div><br />The main thing to notice about the data at this stage is that there there are clearly two wines whose prices are disconnected from those of the other wines — Château Margaux 1990 (the pair of points at the upper left) and Château Latour 1990 (the pair at the upper right). Of these two wines, the Château Margaux is a rip-off according to both critics, as its price is completely out of line with their assessment of its quality. Indeed, this wine was singled out in the magazine article as being especially "disappointing".<br /><br />We can now look at the price-quality relationship of the remaining wines (ie. ignoring these two "luxury" wines), as shown in the next graph.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IDH7M3G8hzc/WsHjnnimFlI/AAAAAAAAAHE/g1WrPNJ0nAok7WkKFGIzVZM6q1dMGoa6QCEwYBhgL/s1600/Price2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Wine price versus quality, excluding the most expensive wines" border="0" data-original-height="1108" data-original-width="1316" height="336" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IDH7M3G8hzc/WsHjnnimFlI/AAAAAAAAAHE/g1WrPNJ0nAok7WkKFGIzVZM6q1dMGoa6QCEwYBhgL/s400/Price2.gif" title="Wine price versus quality, excluding the most expensive wines" width="400" /></a></div><br />At first glance, there does not seem to be any clear relationship between quality and price — wines with lower quality (at the left) seem to cover a wide price range, as do wines with higher quality (at the right). However, there are actually two factors obscuring the expected relationship here (higher quality for higher price).<br /><br />The first factor is that James Suckling's scores <b><i>do</i></b> show a relationship between quality and price while James Laube's <b><i>do not</i></b>. This is why there is a "yes and no" answer to the title question — "yes" for Suckling and "no" for Laube. Formally, the mathematical correlation between wine price and quality for Suckling is 18% while it is only 1% for Laube. [Note: 18% is still not a high value; see below.]<br /><br />The reason for this difference in the two James is shown in the next graph, where I have drawn ovals around three of Laube's points. These three points are what we call "influential values", in the sense that they strongly affect his QPR correlation — without these three values his correlation would also be 18% (as it is for Suckling).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XIICTtP_bkg/WsHjns7kDeI/AAAAAAAAAHI/mCL7jIwFnyIJrX4Bm6m6Royg6GqNd-7UgCLcBGAs/s1600/Price3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The main pattern, plus the unusual wines" border="0" data-original-height="1111" data-original-width="1316" height="337" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XIICTtP_bkg/WsHjns7kDeI/AAAAAAAAAHI/mCL7jIwFnyIJrX4Bm6m6Royg6GqNd-7UgCLcBGAs/s400/Price3.gif" title="The main pattern, plus the unusual wines" width="400" /></a></div><br />The two points at the upper left are two Bordeaux wines that Laube scored very low compared to Suckling (Château Mouton-Rothschild 1985, Château Margaux 1985) and the bottom right point is a California wine that Laube scored much higher than did Suckling (Beringer Private Reserve 1990). In all three cases, Laube's score is out of line with the wine price whereas Suckling's score matches the price more closely.<br /><br />The second reason for a wide spread of points is indicated by the box I have drawn around the pair of points (in the graph) for one of the wines. This wine (Chateau Montelena Napa Valley 1990) is the most obvious bargain among the wines — it has a high score from both critics but is one of the cheapest of the wines. This is a case of quality being high but not price.<br /><br />Finally, the line drawn on the graph represents the exponential relationship between price and quality for the remaining wines (ie. ignoring Laube's influential values). That is, price <i><b>does</b></i> generally increase with quality, with a correlation of 24% (as indicated on the graph). In other words, about one-quarter of the variation in wine price is correlated with wine quality (irrespective of which of the two critics provides the score).<br /><br />I will leave it to you to think about what the other three-quarters of price variation might be related to!<br /><br /><b>Conclusion</b><br /><br />There are four conclusions from this dataset, which may be true for other data, as well. First, there are luxury wines whose exorbitant price is unrelated to their quality. Second, some critics have scores that are related to price, while others do not. Third, wine bargains can be found. Fourth, only about one-quarter of wine price is related to quality.<br /><br />I doubt that more recent wine scoring is any different from this (although the prices now are certainly higher!).David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-75306278989642875272018-04-16T00:30:00.002+02:002018-04-16T00:30:09.632+02:00Why comparing wine-quality scores might make no senseThere is no mathematical meaning to comparing wine-quality scores between different critics.<br /><br />If you <b><i>do</i></b> want to compare scores, then it can only validly be done between those scores produced by any one critic (eg. the same critic tasting different wines, or even the same wine on different occasions). There is no mathematical justification for comparing scores between critics (eg. different critics tasting the same wine, even at the same time). That is, quality scores provide a ranking only for the wines tasted by any given critic, nothing more.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XRhREbLKuz8/Ws0g1iiT5KI/AAAAAAAAAIs/tyFx6gII3bgZejolNp3uCLzvKY_AfPNhwCLcBGAs/s1600/sitemgr_wineranking.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="192" data-original-width="209" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XRhREbLKuz8/Ws0g1iiT5KI/AAAAAAAAAIs/tyFx6gII3bgZejolNp3uCLzvKY_AfPNhwCLcBGAs/s1600/sitemgr_wineranking.jpg" /></a></div><br /><b>Background</b><br /><br />Wine-quality scores are an important concept in the wine industry, for several reasons. First, wine critics produce them, and there would be precious little wine writing without them. Second, wine drinkers and buyers use them to help make their wine-purchasing and wine-drinking decisions. Third, marketers use them as an advertizing tool, usually along with a lot of flowery words about the wines.<br /><br />So, these scores are not going away any time soon, no matter how many pundits proclaim their demise. Instead, what we need to do is come to terms with their characteristics, so that we can use them effectively.<br /><br />To this end, there is actually a small body of professional literature about the vagaries of the range of wine-quality scores that are currently in use; and I have produced several blog posts myself, trying to make sense of what is going on.<br /><br /><b>Reasoning</b><br /><br />I have finally concluded that there are two fundamentally different sorts of wine-quality scores in use: (1) what we might call an <b>objective score</b>, based on explicitly assigning points to a series of pre-defined wine characteristics, and then summing them to get the wine score; and (2) <b>subjective</b> (but expert) <b>scores</b>, where the overall score comes from whatever characteristics the scorer wants to express. There are many variants of these two score types, especially the subjective scores, but for our purposes in this post this variation is not relevant.<br /><br />What is important, instead, is that these two types of scores should not be confused, although most people still seem to do this — people often refer to "wine scores" as though they are all the same. However, the two types have fundamentally different mathematical behaviors. Their mathematical behavior is of the utmost importance because this is what numbers are all about — if numbers have any meaning then it must be a mathematical meaning, otherwise words would be enough.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gw803K-RNxA/Ws0g18TMYXI/AAAAAAAAAIw/T3ZzYbsGHDMD11QEhDYLXOk5ccp1HNMWQCEwYBhgL/s1600/comparing-test-scores-norms2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="168" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gw803K-RNxA/Ws0g18TMYXI/AAAAAAAAAIw/T3ZzYbsGHDMD11QEhDYLXOk5ccp1HNMWQCEwYBhgL/s1600/comparing-test-scores-norms2.jpg" /></a></div><br />So, we need to distinguish between the <b>scoring scheme</b>, which contains the information about wine quality, and the <b>scale</b>, which is the way that the quality is expressed (stars, points, words, etc). Formally, for the objective scores there is a single scoring scheme and a single scale being used to express that scheme (eg. the numbers 1-20 used by the UCDavis quality score). However, for the subjective scores there are many different scoring schemes, even though a single scale is being used to express those schemes (eg. the numbers 50-100 used by the majority of wine critics, as well as by community sites such as Cellar Tracker or Vivino).<br /><br />This distinction can be illustrated using this 2x2 table:<br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="right" valign="top"><br /><b>Objective scores:</b><br /><b>Subjective scores:</b>&nbsp; </td><td align="center" valign="top"><b>Scale</b><br />&nbsp;one (eg. 20 points)<br />&nbsp;one (eg. 20 points) </td><td align="center" valign="top"><b>Scoring scheme</b><br />&nbsp;one (pre-defined)<br />&nbsp;many (chosen by critic) </td></tr></tbody></table><br />This means that: for the objective points scores, since there is only one scoring scheme, then differences in points always reflect differences in the perceived qualities of the wines; but for the subjective points scores, there is a wide choice of scoring schemes — the scoring scheme can mean anything the person wants it to mean. In both cases, there can be personal choices about the wine quality, but in the subjective case there are also choices about how to interpret the scoring scheme (ie. what it actually means).<br /><br />Of most importance, then, is that the objective scores <b><i>can</i></b> be directly compare between critics, because any difference in score will almost always represent a difference of opinion about the quality of the wine. On the other hand, the subjective scores <b><i>cannot</i></b> be compared, because any difference or similarity of the scores could be interpreted as either (i) a difference of opinion about the wine quality or (ii) the use of different scoring schemes — for example, there can be different schemes for reds versus whites, or sweet versus dry wines, or even different grape varieties.<br /><br />For subjective wine-quality scores, we thus cannot tell what numerical similarity or difference of scores actually means. The same scores could mean different qualities (because the scoring schemes are different), and different scores could mean the same quality (because the scoring schemes are different). How on earth are we to know? We can't!<br /><br />I have listed some of my previous posts at the bottom of this page, which provide illustrative examples of just how many different scoring schemes there are among critics, even when they are ostensibly using the same scale.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CFhlIOyXlYU/Ws0fkgApNzI/AAAAAAAAAIk/qBaVMfarzIIDyU5Q8Nn8qMGEmyIaeIpTQCEwYBhgL/s1600/dominikdurner_header1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="264" data-original-width="825" height="102" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CFhlIOyXlYU/Ws0fkgApNzI/AAAAAAAAAIk/qBaVMfarzIIDyU5Q8Nn8qMGEmyIaeIpTQCEwYBhgL/s320/dominikdurner_header1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Finally, note that that it is the combination of a value judgment with a variable scoring system that is the issue. Variable scoring systems on their own are not problematic, provided they are measuring an objective phenomenon. For example if we are measuring the length of something, then it does not matter whether we use yards, meters or cubits, because the length itself will be the same in all three cases, and we are just describing this using different units. But wine quality is <b><i>not</i></b> an objective phenomenon, in this same sense — it is to a large extent a value judgment; and this creates the problem. Different scores may mean different judgments or they may mean different scoring schemes.<br /><br /><b>Conclusions</b><br /><br />Harvey Steiman (<a href="http://www.winespectator.com/blogs/archive/id/6" target="_blank">Editor at Large</a>, <i>Wine Spectator</i>) once wrote (Are ratings pointless? June 15, 2007):<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">The main reason I like to use the 100-point scale is that it lets me communicate more to my readers. They can tell that I liked a 90-point wine just a little better than an 89-point wine, but a 94-point wine a lot more than one rated 86.</blockquote>And that ranking is all the score does — we cannot compare Mr Steiman's numbers to anyone else's numbers. This is a pity.<br /><br />However, the average quality score produced by community sites like <a href="https://www.cellartracker.com/" target="_blank">Cellar Tracker</a> <b><i>might</i></b> possibly have some meaning, but only if it is an average of enough scores. I have no idea what "enough" would be in this case, but it has to be a large enough set of scores to "average out" the fact that the many people producing the scores may all mean different things. If variation among the scores varies randomly about some average value (as is likely), then calculating an average score will, indeed, address the issue. But an average derived from a small number of scores is itself subject to random variation, although this decreases as the sample size increases. Trying to work out the required sample size might be the topic of another blog post.<br /><br />Moreover, as I have emphasized, if a consistent scoring scheme is used (ie. an objective score), then the scores can naturally be compared among tasters. I have done this comparison, for example, when I have used data from the&nbsp;Vintners Club, which employs the standard UC Davis 20-point scoring system for its tastings (see the list of posts below). Here, averaging the scores does, indeed, make perfect mathematical sense, because all of the scores are based on the same scoring scheme — differences in scores can only mean differences of opinion about wine quality.<br /><br />Finally, there are a number of contributions to the professional literature that cover the implications of this topic for wine competitions; but I will cover that in another post.<br /><br /><b>Previous blog posts illustrating the differences between scoring schemes</b><br /><ul><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/06/when-critics-disagree.html" target="_blank">When critics disagree</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/09/when-wine-juries-disagree.html" target="_blank">When wine juries disagree</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/02/poor-correlation-among-critics-quality.html" target="_blank">Poor correlation among critics' quality scores</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/03/are-quality-scores-from-repeat-tastings.html" target="_blank">Are the quality scores from repeat tastings correlated? Sometimes!</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/04/how-large-is-between-critic-variation.html" target="_blank">How large is between-critic variation in quality scores?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/05/how-many-wine-quality-scales-are-there.html" target="_blank">How many wine-quality scales are there?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/06/how-many-100-point-wine-quality-scales.html" target="_blank">How many 100-point wine-quality scales are there?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/06/what-happened-to-decanter-when-it.html" target="_blank">What happened to Decanter when it changed its points scoring scheme</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/02/wine-quality-scores-for-premium-wines.html" target="_blank">Wine-quality scores for premium wines are not consistent through time</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/03/laube-versus-suckling-their-scores.html" target="_blank">Laube versus Suckling — their scores differ, but what does that mean for us?</a></li></ul><b>Previous blog posts using an objective scoring scheme</b><br /><ul><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/08/wine-tastings-should-we-assess-wines-by.html" target="_blank">Wine tastings: should we assess wines by quality points or rank order of preference?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/12/california-cabernets-do-not-get-same.html" target="_blank">California cabernets do not get the same quality scores at different tastings</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/04/was-judgment-of-paris-repeatable.html" target="_blank">Was the Judgment of Paris repeatable?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/09/did-california-wine-tasters-agree-with.html" target="_blank">Did California wine-tasters agree with the results of the Judgment of Paris?</a></li></ul>David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-73436634239306596632018-04-09T00:30:00.000+02:002018-04-11T19:20:36.300+02:00The rise, rise, fall and rise of Australian wine<i>Global Wine Markets, 1860 to 2016: a Statistical Compendium</i> (by Kym Anderson, Signe Nelgen and Vicente Pinilla. 2017. University of Adelaide Press) lists a number of countries that are net exporters of wine, in the sense that wine production per capita exceeds wine consumption per capita, including (in decreasing order) Spain, Chile, Italy, New Zealand and Australia.<br /><br />A few weeks ago I discussed the inexorable rise of New Zealand wine over the past couple of decades (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/03/the-rise-and-rise-of-new-zealand-wine.html" target="_blank">The rise and rise of New Zealand wine</a>). I presented some graphs comparing New Zealand with Australia, and noted the somewhat longer and more rocky road the latter wine has traveled. Here, I will look at that road in a bit more detail.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-c8gFwsni_wc/WpqvlOpJ7bI/AAAAAAAAABU/UTfDP3ElAeUw3qPJreIxbCj5vnhJbm61wCLcBGAs/s1600/WineAustralia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="152" data-original-width="332" height="91" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-c8gFwsni_wc/WpqvlOpJ7bI/AAAAAAAAABU/UTfDP3ElAeUw3qPJreIxbCj5vnhJbm61wCLcBGAs/s200/WineAustralia.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br />Technically, the story of Australian wine starts on January 1st 1901, which is the Australian equivalent of July 4 1776 for Americans (except that the British decided to avoid having the Australians shooting at them, to make them go away). Until that time, it was Empire wine, not Australian wine.<br /><br />Nevertheless, there was a pre-history for Australian wine. For example, <a href="https://www.bestwinesunder20.com.au/the-1960s-from-pearl-wine-to-chateau-cardboard/" target="_blank">Kim Brebach</a> has noted:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">Australian wine had a heyday in the latter part of the 19th century, when the Gold Rush brought all kinds of adventurers to the country. Boat people, migrants, refugees. They came from the old world and the new (America). They were seekers of fortune, followed by entertainers, suppliers of mining needs, cooks and market gardeners.</blockquote><blockquote class="tr_bq">The depression of the nineties saw a return to a simpler life for most Australians, where survival was the order of the day and food and wine took a back seat. Little changed through the first decade of the new millennium, and the second, which saw the Great War, as they called it. By the end of the third decade, things began to look up, but then the sky fell in on the stock market, the Great Depression followed, and yet another Great War.</blockquote><blockquote class="tr_bq">For the first half of the 20th century, winemakers survived by turning much of their fruit into Brandy, Sherry and Port ... Table wines were a rarity because drinking wine with food had become a vague memory from a bygone era to which most people had lost the link ... Of course there were people who drank table wine during the war years and the depression — doctors, lawyers, academics and other professionals — but their number was small.</blockquote>So, for our purposes, the real story of Australian wine actually starts mid-century, with what has been called the post-war Baby Boomer generation. This, incidentally, is my generation.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1SJuvPkML-Q/WpqwwNEqxjI/AAAAAAAAABg/6SZbnx8nlZgNOoNBzQh12gUWsgYCfTdCgCLcBGAs/s1600/australia_comparisons.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australia versus Europe and the USA" border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="501" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1SJuvPkML-Q/WpqwwNEqxjI/AAAAAAAAABg/6SZbnx8nlZgNOoNBzQh12gUWsgYCfTdCgCLcBGAs/s1600/australia_comparisons.jpg" title="Australia versus Europe and the USA" /></a></div><br />The first thing to get clear is that there is actually no such thing as "Australian wine". Australia is a continent, the size of the continental USA and larger than continental western+central Europe, as shown in the above figure. So, there are as many radically different wine-growing regions within Australia as there are anywhere else on this planet; and the diversity of wines and styles reflects this. Don't let the fact that it is a single country fool you into thinking that there is a single wine style.<br /><br />Nevertheless, <a href="https://www.wineaustralia.com/" target="_blank">Wine Australia</a>, the nationally funded statutory service body for the Australian grape and wine community, likes to talk about "Brand Australia", and who am I to argue? So, I will look solely at the national level in this blog post. Most of the data for the following graphs come from the book by Kym Anderson (with the assistance of Nanda R. Aryal) <i>Growth and Cycles in Australia’s Wine Industry: a Statistical Compendium, 1843 to 2013</i> (University of Adelaide Press, 2015) .<br /><br /><b>Wine exports</b><br /><br />Let's start by looking at the graph that inspired the title of this blog post. Each point represents one year, from 1901 to 2017, showing the value of the wine exports in A$. Note that the value scale is logarithmic, so that a straight line on the graph represents exponential growth.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yEE74CayS_c/WqPQyMKzrXI/AAAAAAAAAB0/Iiuv8iISFfE9EDi_zj33bbbL6ka8JSRvQCLcBGAs/s1600/Graph0.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian wine export value 1901-2017" border="0" data-original-height="911" data-original-width="1448" height="251" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yEE74CayS_c/WqPQyMKzrXI/AAAAAAAAAB0/Iiuv8iISFfE9EDi_zj33bbbL6ka8JSRvQCLcBGAs/s400/Graph0.gif" title="Australian wine export value 1901-2017" width="400" /></a></div><br />The graph shows that wine export value increased at a roughly constant exponential rate until 1980, followed by a increase in the exponential rate until the early 2000s, then a sharp decrease, followed by a recent recovery. So, to the rest of the world, Australian wine has shown a rise, rise, fall and rise.<br /><br />Let's look at what might lie behind these patterns. The most obvious place to look is wine production, of course, as shown in this next graph. Note that production has increased at a constant exponential rate, all the way from 1901 to the present. So, this explains the initial rise in wine exports from 1901 to 1980 — the increase in exports was simply tracking the increase in wine production.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Bh85pkTe7Ag/WqPQyGZJcOI/AAAAAAAAACI/ZYADlwhMePAgfItWaX80CuN0EeYqOB2yQCEwYBhgL/s1600/Graph1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian wine production 1901-2013" border="0" data-original-height="913" data-original-width="1447" height="251" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Bh85pkTe7Ag/WqPQyGZJcOI/AAAAAAAAACI/ZYADlwhMePAgfItWaX80CuN0EeYqOB2yQCEwYBhgL/s400/Graph1.gif" title="Australian wine production 1901-2013" width="400" /></a></div><br />This is what economists like to see, but it is not really sustainable, because suitable land has a finite area, and so there is a limit to production.<br /><br />Moving on, what happened after 1980? Why was there a sudden increase in exports? To look at this, we need to consider Australia's population size, and the behavior of the people. This next graph shows the population size through time. Note that the graph scale is <i>not</i> logarithmic.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DVRvPX3tQqY/WqPQx6ZneHI/AAAAAAAAACM/5K3kNN6G5ZMttip04YzHLSv-QBwQXZNLQCEwYBhgL/s1600/Graph2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian population 1901-2015" border="0" data-original-height="919" data-original-width="1480" height="247" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DVRvPX3tQqY/WqPQx6ZneHI/AAAAAAAAACM/5K3kNN6G5ZMttip04YzHLSv-QBwQXZNLQCEwYBhgL/s400/Graph2.gif" title="Australian population 1901-2015" width="400" /></a></div><br />The graph shows three distinct periods of different rates of population growth. Australia's population growth is, and has been since 1788, dominated by migration — currently, more than 50% of the populace are either first or second generation migrants. (There is no other country on the planet that is like that.) So, what the graph shows is three periods of migration rate, with a dramatic increase in migration immediately after World War II, and another increase at the turn of the current century.<br /><br />The importance of these patterns for Australian wine exports is that the population growth has been linear, whereas wine production has grown exponentially. Wine production has out-stripped the population.<br /><br />This has been counter-acted to some extent by changes in consumption of wine, as shown in the next graph. Wine consumption (per adult, of course) rose dramatically during the 1960s, peaking during the 1980s. It was the recent Italian, Greek and other European migrants who re-introduced the locals to the delights of good food and wine after World War II. Like California at the same time, Australia was still producing bulk wines with faux-French names well into the 1960s; but this changed during the 1970s, to a celebration of Australian wine styles for their own sake.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sSFSxW_PvQM/WqPQyujC27I/AAAAAAAAACM/LvK-L74P27QfbpE85FfVrE7NcD7l4QXjQCEwYBhgL/s1600/Graph3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian wine consumption 1922-2013" border="0" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="1478" height="246" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sSFSxW_PvQM/WqPQyujC27I/AAAAAAAAACM/LvK-L74P27QfbpE85FfVrE7NcD7l4QXjQCEwYBhgL/s400/Graph3.gif" title="Australian wine consumption 1922-2013" width="400" /></a></div><br />So, up until the 1980s, increased consumption (not population growth) matched the exponential increase in wine production. After that, the domestic system fell apart — wine consumption reached a plateau but wine production kept increasing. This is why there was a sudden increase in exports during the 1980s, as shown in the next graph.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1BHzGhrg7LQ/WqPQzAAKFUI/AAAAAAAAACM/6usFWlxQrK89O0thp6X0OHJk1DAXJ6G6QCEwYBhgL/s1600/Graph4.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian wine exports 1901-2013" border="0" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="1475" height="246" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1BHzGhrg7LQ/WqPQzAAKFUI/AAAAAAAAACM/6usFWlxQrK89O0thp6X0OHJk1DAXJ6G6QCEwYBhgL/s400/Graph4.gif" title="Australian wine exports 1901-2013" width="400" /></a></div><br />The Australian wine industry started a concerted effort to attract the world's wine consumers to Australian wine; and it was at this stage that the world wine media first started paying serious attention to Australian wine. As an aside, the odd peak of exports in 2007 (as seen in the graph) was due to a dramatic decrease in wine production that year.<br /><br />However, by 2010, exports had also reached a plateau, as a percentage of production. Indeed, by 2005 export volume had exceeded 50% of production, and this was actually the peak in the value of wine exports (as shown in the original first graph). It has remained at 50-60% since then, but the dollar value of exports has decreased.<br /><br />It was at this stage that the Australian wine industry was losing its way. With the exception of the boom in Yellow Tail wines in the USA (see <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/07/yellow-tail-and-casella-wines.html" target="_blank">Yellow Tail and Casella Wines</a>), the first 15 years of the new millennium were poor ones for Australian wine exports.<br /><br />Basically, the exports focused on the cheap end of the wine market; and this is no way to make money. The Australian wine industry became known as a source of inexpensive wine, mostly exported in bulk. I have discussed this issue in previous posts (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/05/wine-exports.html" target="_blank">Global wine exports</a>; <a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/07/united-states-wine-imports-and-exports.html" target="_blank">United States wine imports and exports</a>), noting that, for example, Australia has recently made less money per liter out of its wine exports to the USA than anyone else, in spite of being the second-largest supplier, as a result of the industry's approach to doing business that has confused volume for profitability.<br /><br /><b>The current situation</b><br /><br />Domestically, Australia has gone the same route as the United Kingdom, so that almost all wine is sold through the two biggest local supermarket chains. In the UK, the chains started buying cleanskin wines (usually from wine co-ops or factory-scale commercial wineries), and marketing them with own-brand labels — actually, they used to hire Australian winemakers to "clean them up" for the tastes of the UK market!<br /><br />So, the Australian supermarkets currently own the retail (&gt;70% market share), the distribution and the winemaking, as far as domestic consumption is concerned (see the list of wine brands at <a href="https://www.therealreview.com/who-makes-my-wine/" target="_blank">Who makes my wine?</a>). Apart from the own-brand wines, the supermarket-owned liquor chains mostly favor the big wine companies (Treasury Wine Estates, Accolade, Pernod Ricard), which own about 70% of Australian wine production (their brands are also listed at <a href="https://www.therealreview.com/who-makes-my-wine/" target="_blank">Who makes my wine?</a>). The other 30% of production is made by c. 2,500 small- to medium-size wineries. <br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-H6c_t059Mtw/WqP2JvtSWoI/AAAAAAAAACk/MFNCpVeqYsIkLYSvSevultrc5vkzto7LwCLcBGAs/s1600/supermarket%2Bwines%2Binfographic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="347" data-original-width="615" height="180" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-H6c_t059Mtw/WqP2JvtSWoI/AAAAAAAAACk/MFNCpVeqYsIkLYSvSevultrc5vkzto7LwCLcBGAs/s320/supermarket%2Bwines%2Binfographic.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />That is why there has been so much recent focus by Wine Australia on getting the export market back on track. Indeed, it has been reported that in 2017 Australian wine exports hit a<a href="https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2018/01/australian-wine-exports-hit-record-high-in-both-volume-and-value-in-2017/" target="_blank"> record high</a> in both volume and value. Furthermore, the Australian Government <a href="https://grapegrowerandwinemaker.com/2018/04/03/new-australian-wine-regulations/" target="_blank">recently enacted</a> the <i>Wine Australia Regulations 2018</i> (replacing the <i>Australian Grape and Wine Authority Regulations 1981</i>) to help regulate and protect wine exports as far as product, shipment and licensing are concerned (ie. protect Australian wine brands and the reputation of Australian wine exports).<br /><br />By region, Europe currently receives c. 38 million cases of Australian wine, North America 26 million cases, and Asia 22 million. Within Europe, the United Kingdom is the biggest market, followed by Germany and then the Netherlands. More importantly, Australia's <a href="https://www.therealreview.com/2018/03/14/jacobs-creek-is-new-zealands-strongest-wine-brand/" target="_blank">Jacob's Creek</a> is the top wine brand in New Zealand!<br /><br />Australia has recently signed a number of free trade agreements, notably the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/09/trans-pacific-partnership-signed-world-will-be-drinking-more-australian-wine" target="_blank">Trans-Pacific Partnership</a> (Australia plus: Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam. The current US president withdrew his nation from their original intention to be part of this deal, which may disadvantage Australia, given the size of the US market; but on the other hand, he is also embroiled in a tariff dispute with China, which <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-04/04/c_137087593.htm" target="_blank">will probably benefit</a> Australia. The expansion of free-trade agreements is notwithstanding the <a href="https://www.blogger.com/"><span id="goog_624088905"></span>current problems<span id="goog_624088906"></span></a> between Canada and Australia.<br /><br />So, the recent focus has been on China. The current <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-wine-china/australian-wine-exports-to-china-surge-as-fta-cuts-tariffs-idUSKBN1FC028" target="_blank">free trade agreement</a> between Australia and China took effect in December 2015. France is still the dominant wine seller to China, holding about 40% of the imported wine sales market. However, Australia has been in second place for a decade; and, while French sales growth has been steady, Australian exports have skyrocketed. China is now Australia's largest wine export destination (A$848m), with the USA now second (A$449m) and the UK falling to third (A$348m). Indeed, it has been <a href="http://www.austwine.net.au/cms/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/The-Australian-Bulk-Wine-Market-some-brief-remarks-21-September-2017.pdf" target="_blank">reported</a> that, due to a smaller 2018 harvest plus the growing Chinese market, demand is now outstripping supply for bulk exports of Australian red and white wines.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4uf1ebtq4IY/WqPy0OkYXdI/AAAAAAAAACY/SVTlSp1HJDAAKeJfe39zD3ODHIekFVRTQCLcBGAs/s1600/wine-australia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="738" height="110" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4uf1ebtq4IY/WqPy0OkYXdI/AAAAAAAAACY/SVTlSp1HJDAAKeJfe39zD3ODHIekFVRTQCLcBGAs/s200/wine-australia.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br />The recent focus has also been on <a href="http://www.shankennewsdaily.com/index.php/2018/03/27/20456/australian-wine-awakens-new-upscale-focus/" target="_blank">premiumization</a>. Treasury Wine Estates, in particular, have finally realized the dollar value of selling premium wines rather than getting involved in wine discounting — they are now selling less wine but doing so much more profitably (leading to a rapid rise in its <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/2018/04/09/is-treasury-wine-estates-ltd-a-buy/" target="_blank">share price</a>). The key export brands are currently the premium brands: Penfolds and Wolf Blass. TWE's main focus is now firmly in China — it is not for nothing that the super-premium Penfolds G3 wine was launched at the exclusive Liang Yi Museum in Hong Kong, not in Australia.<br /><br />The Australian wine industry at large is slowly learning this same lesson. For example, over the past decade, the value of Australia’s wine exports to China has expanded roughly twice as much as volume. China is the country where Australian exports have the highest average dollar per liter (AU$5.55), while the USA is only now seeing growth in Australian export wines that sell above $15 retail.<br /><br /><b>Conclusion</b><br /><br />So, here is the first graph again, with a couple of lines added, showing that: (i) the initial rise in wine export value was simply a balance between population and wine consumption on the one hand and wine production on the other hand; (ii) the second rise in exports was a concerted effort to deal with saturation of the domestic wine market after 1980; (iii) the fall at the turn of the century was due to saturation of the export wine market and a focus on unremunerative bulk exports; and (iv) the final rise is due to a recent focus on premium exports, particularly to China.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CyePpS-zalg/WqPQzPxklpI/AAAAAAAAACM/_y5pdYanMzEafOJ0o6MxgLD4l6hFLCRDQCEwYBhgL/s1600/Graph5.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian wine export value 1901-2017" border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1443" height="251" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CyePpS-zalg/WqPQzPxklpI/AAAAAAAAACM/_y5pdYanMzEafOJ0o6MxgLD4l6hFLCRDQCEwYBhgL/s400/Graph5.gif" title="Australian wine export value 1901-2017" width="400" /></a></div><br /><b>Addendum</b><br /><br />I have been asked about the affect of inflation on the dollar value of the exports (Australian inflation has been an average of 4% annually since 1901). So, I have used the Inflation Calculator available from the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank of Australia</a>, to convert all of the export values into 2017-equivalent AUD. This is shown as the reddish line in this next graph, for comparison with the unadjusted data.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3ysyE8SpcbA/WsvFDTdxtrI/AAAAAAAAAIE/9Hglkx5DXOg93sqjEDwwqXE7vEA1bcLSwCLcBGAs/s1600/2017dollars.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Exports expressed in 2017 dollars" border="0" data-original-height="914" data-original-width="1446" height="252" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3ysyE8SpcbA/WsvFDTdxtrI/AAAAAAAAAIE/9Hglkx5DXOg93sqjEDwwqXE7vEA1bcLSwCLcBGAs/s400/2017dollars.gif" title="Exports expressed in 2017 dollars" width="400" /></a></div><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-51867035231424767742018-04-02T00:30:00.001+02:002018-04-02T00:30:06.295+02:00Artificial intelligence in the wine industry? Not yet, please!The world is changing rapidly, and the wine industry needs to keep up. However, we should not trip over our own feet in a mad rush to do this. We need to think carefully about just which bits of the modern world will be beneficial, and in what capacities. To this end, I have already written about <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-dangers-of-over-interpreting-big.html" target="_blank">Big Data</a>, and about the <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/02/social-bots-and-problems-they-create.html" target="_blank">use of social media</a>, and about the vagaries of <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/12/are-there-biases-in-community-wine.html" target="_blank">community wine-quality scores</a>, along with some cautionary tales.<br /><br />At the risk of becoming a perpetual nay-sayer, I must now say something about Artificial Intelligence (AI). Computing is something I know about, and the potential problems with AI are just a bit too obvious for me to let them pass by unnoticed. Once again, I feel that the enthusiasts are being a bit too enthusiastic, and not quite critical enough for clear thinking. The wine industry deserves better than this.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qdXJBvX_urg/Wq0eWsWk5nI/AAAAAAAAAEw/_Auymld3hh4HXKoIHwKaznSNSqZXT3ftACLcBGAs/s1600/brain.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="182" data-original-width="200" height="139" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qdXJBvX_urg/Wq0eWsWk5nI/AAAAAAAAAEw/_Auymld3hh4HXKoIHwKaznSNSqZXT3ftACLcBGAs/s320/brain.png" width="150" /></a></div><br />AI is just what it says — artificial. Whether it is also intelligent I will let you decide for yourselves, below. Human intelligence is sometimes called into question, usually for a good reason, but we should <b><i>always</i></b> call artificial intelligence into question.<br /><br /><b>What is artificial intelligence?</b><br /><br />Humans learn by example. Given suitable examples, we can learn to do some pretty impressive things. This is what we mean when we say that human beings are intelligent — we interact with the examples, using trial and error to work out how to do whatever it is that we are trying to do. Sadly, if we are presented with bad examples, we can also learn some pretty bad habits — that is the trade-off, which we have happily accepted.<br /><br />On the other hand, when we have previously devised machines to aid us in our endeavors, we have designed them to function in very specific ways. The machine does not interact with the world to learn new functions, but instead we have to devise these new functions ourselves and then re-design the machine. Pens dispense ink but cannot learn to compose text; knives cut food but cannot learn to cook that food; and cars cannot learn to fly, even if we add wings to help them do so.<br /><br />This situation is now changing with the advent of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence" target="_blank">Artificial Intelligence</a>. Computer programs based on AI are <b><i>not</i></b> told by humans what to do — they learn by example, not by instruction. That is, they are presented with a collection of examples, plus a programming system that allows them to devise their own behavior from whatever patterns they detect in those examples. This is an example of what is called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_learning" target="_blank">Machine Learning</a>. It is a probabilistic system — the AI system may not make the same decision each time it meets a new situation, but instead it will have a probability associated with each of several possible behaviors. This is unlike our previous machines, where each machine should repeatedly do the same thing under the same circumstances.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_vitAr2uh-I/Wq1QJO_CnoI/AAAAAAAAAFk/-IFECeRfvBYWnvVKLT8qXtefDD6Wl0xDwCLcBGAs/s1600/d8f7a627-e0a4-49f4-9419-c91c62cf55da.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="248" data-original-width="500" height="158" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_vitAr2uh-I/Wq1QJO_CnoI/AAAAAAAAAFk/-IFECeRfvBYWnvVKLT8qXtefDD6Wl0xDwCLcBGAs/s320/d8f7a627-e0a4-49f4-9419-c91c62cf55da.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />We have very little control over what it is that the AI systems learn — we can only control the actual examples, not what patterns the AI system finds in those examples. If a system learns bad habits, for example, all we can do is keep giving it more and more good examples, and hope that it eventually re-learns. Just like people, right? Indeed, just like any <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_system" target="_blank">Complex System</a>, the outcome can be unpredictable, as well as uncontrollable.<br /><br />Let's first look at a few successful examples of AI usage; and then we will look at what sorts of things can go wrong.<br /><br /><b>Some examples of AI</b><br /><br />Perhaps the best-known early application of Artificial Intelligence has been in the matter of designing computer programs to play competitive games, such as chess or poker. Here, the process is relatively straightforward, because the program input is a series of game situations plus their outcome under particular future plays, from which the AI program can deduce the probabilities of success when following any given strategy. The most recent, and most successful, chess example is the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaZero" target="_blank">AlphaZero</a> program. At the moment, the AI successes are restricted to 2-person games.<br /><br />Other commonly used examples of AI include the digital "personal assistant" apps, such as Apple's <i>Siri</i> and Amazon's <i>Alexa</i>, along with the predictive film-choosing technology from <i>Netflix</i> and the music-choosing technology from <i>Pandora</i>. In a more modern but less-common vein, predictive self-driving features of Tesla cars are all based on AI. A bit of the history of AI and some other examples are included in <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/guide-artificial-intelligence/" target="_blank"><span id="goog_1132526530"></span>The WIRED guide to artificial intelligence<span id="goog_1132526531"></span></a>.<br /><br /><b>A not-so-good example (from the wine world)</b><br /><br />A classical use of AI is in the <a href="https://translate.google.com/" target="_blank">Google Translate</a> system, which allows us to translate online text between a wide range of languages. Here, I present a simple example taken from my own experience, in which some text from a Swedish wine site, describing three wines, is being allegedly translated into English.<br /><br />Original text:<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aRZwnwkhXVI/Wq0Qs8LUHaI/AAAAAAAAAEY/dIa1cRD9GpsnkSLHwYb1DwzpsXfLldK-ACLcBGAs/s1600/Original.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="1600" height="174" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aRZwnwkhXVI/Wq0Qs8LUHaI/AAAAAAAAAEY/dIa1cRD9GpsnkSLHwYb1DwzpsXfLldK-ACLcBGAs/s400/Original.gif" width="416" /></a></div>Translated text:<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-i_hoDKZn5pE/Wq0QynpH4jI/AAAAAAAAAEc/G5ByCa_sWu0I46C0GRXuF5GDD9EFDBgIACLcBGAs/s1600/GoogleTranslate.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="1600" height="195" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-i_hoDKZn5pE/Wq0QynpH4jI/AAAAAAAAAEc/G5ByCa_sWu0I46C0GRXuF5GDD9EFDBgIACLcBGAs/s400/GoogleTranslate.gif" width="410" /></a></div><br />The titles alone tell you that something is wrong, because the translated title makes no sense — it should say "Less than SEK 70". Note that the word "kronor" <b><i>has</i></b> successfully been translated in the title — this is the Swedish currency, which would translate literally as "crowns", but SEK is the accepted financial abbreviation.<br /><br />However, look at the way the other three occurrences of "kronor" have been translated! The text actually has four different translations of this one word, even though the format of the text is unvarying, and all four occurrences should be translated the same way — we have: "SEK", "billion", "$" and "crowns". The first and last are correct translations, but the other two are complete nonsense. Note, especially, the direct translation of Swedish currency to dollars without using an exchange rate — this is not unusual for Google Translate, which is also known to translate "meter" to "foot" without a conversion, for example.<br /><br />The issue that I am highlighting here is that we cannot ask why the AI system has done this. There is nothing in the programming that tells the system to use any given translation. The system is simply given a large body of text (original text plus a translation), and the algorithm tries to find repeated patterns connecting them. From this deduced information, it makes its probabilistic decisions with each new piece of untranslated text. In this case, Google Translate has learned four different possible translations, and decides which one to use on each occasion.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-usAlj3_u6bs/Wq1Jm3rM0DI/AAAAAAAAAFQ/VKHMkmAAV5sAbDc0RCp1S7Zst2Q31nbyQCLcBGAs/s1600/56a3c34482fd7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="335" data-original-width="640" height="104" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-usAlj3_u6bs/Wq1Jm3rM0DI/AAAAAAAAAFQ/VKHMkmAAV5sAbDc0RCp1S7Zst2Q31nbyQCLcBGAs/s200/56a3c34482fd7.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br /><br />The only way to correct this problem is to keep providing more and more text (original plus translation), until the system starts to get its decisions right (by finding the correct patterns). We cannot tell it what to do — it is "intelligent", and therefore must work it out for itself.<br /><br />This solution will eventually work. For example, a couple of years ago the Google translation of Swedish text always ignored the Swedish word "inte". This was a problem because the word translates as "not", which creates the negative of the sentence (see <a href="https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/inte#Swedish" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>). You can image how silly the translations were, when they said impossible things could happen! Fortunately, Google Translate has now corrected itself (through 2 years' worth of more examples), and "inte" is currently translated correctly.<br /><br />Along the same lines, if you really would like to see some bizarre translations, try getting Google Translate to convert some Latin text into English (or any other non-Romance language of your choice).<br /><br /><b>The take-home message</b><br /><br />The issue with Artificial Intelligence is this. The old-style approach to computing and machines involved specialization — each machine did one thing only, and did it well. The AI approach to computing and machines involves them being generalists — each of them can do a lot of things, but this risks that they do none of them well. So, in my example, traditional translation systems involve only one pair of languages at a time, and these are translated properly. Google Translate is a system that tries to do all pairwise languages, and at the moment it doesn't do any of them particularly well.<br /><br />We need to make a choice — we can't have it both ways.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mLzoU06IzYE/WrOmkQy_yQI/AAAAAAAAAGg/CtK-l72LKRIr1g8ByXl9TfnIuJ9r8g27QCLcBGAs/s1600/Techno_Image1-10006461.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="245" data-original-width="670" height="146" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mLzoU06IzYE/WrOmkQy_yQI/AAAAAAAAAGg/CtK-l72LKRIr1g8ByXl9TfnIuJ9r8g27QCLcBGAs/s400/Techno_Image1-10006461.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><b>The wine world of AI</b><br /><br />So, what are we getting ourselves into, if we bring AI into the wine world? What are people suggesting that we use it for?<br /><br />Perhaps the most widely touted use of AI in the wine industry is the sort of predictive technology mentioned above for <i>Netflix</i> and <i>Pandora</i> — given certain basic pieces of information about the customer, a computerized assistant should be able to make sensible suggestions regarding wine purchases or food/wine pairing.<br /><br />This idea is based on having a database of wine information, which is connected by expert knowledge to some sort of consumer "profile". In short, both the wines and the consumers are "profiled" is some way, and the two datasets are connected by an AI system.<br /><br />This general sort of idea is being (or has been) pushed by a number of companies, producing mobile apps or online sites, such as <a href="http://phylonetworks.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-genome-cellar-is-no-such-thing.html" target="_blank">Next Glass</a>, <a href="https://www.winefriend.co.nz/" target="_blank">WineFriend</a>, <a href="http://www.hellovino.com/" target="_blank">Hello Vino</a>, <a href="https://www.winering.com/" target="_blank">Wine Ring</a>, and <a href="https://www.winestein.com/about/" target="_blank">WineStein</a>. These AI systems usually ask the user a set of questions, and then suggest new wines based on the answers, and possibly also on previous wine consumption.* Wine Ring, for example, has even made it into reports on <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/29/artificial-intelligence-and-wine.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a> and <a href="https://www.go-wine.com/wine-channel-video-408-how-artificial-intelligence-can-help-you-pick-the-perfect-bottle-of-wine.html" target="_blank">Go-Wine</a>.<br /><br />This AI approach has also been pushed by some of the social networks, which started out as ways to record what you drink and whether you like it, but have recently morphed into general-purpose wine sites. So, sites such as <a href="https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2017/03/wine-app-vivino-ups-customer-recommendations/" target="_blank">Vivino</a> now use AI to provide new wine recommendations according to the wines already rated or bought by the consumer. Even Wine-Searcher, which mainly connects consumers with wine prices from an array of retail shops, is testing a recommendation chatbot, called <a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/chatbot.lml" target="_blank">Casey</a>.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VeUIANKrtKM/Wq2PqiR58XI/AAAAAAAAAF4/9bPhFppKfBk1jA0wD1v4ulbAfCJsYNAggCLcBGAs/s1600/300x0w.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="502" data-original-width="267" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VeUIANKrtKM/Wq2PqiR58XI/AAAAAAAAAF4/9bPhFppKfBk1jA0wD1v4ulbAfCJsYNAggCLcBGAs/s320/300x0w.gif" width="170" /></a></div><br />This idea may be the least problematic use of AI in the wine industry. It can work well, depending on the quality and quantity of the database containing the wine-related information, and how well it is connected to the customer information. Novices, in particular, can benefit greatly from this use of AI, if it is implemented effectively — but don't be surprised by unpredictable or unexpected wine suggestions, since the AI system itself is dealing with probabilities only. Moreover, speaking as a biologist, the oft-used biological metaphor of the AI database functioning like a "genome" is utter nonsense (see the most popular blog post I have ever written: <a href="http://phylonetworks.blogspot.se/2013/03/the-music-genome-project-is-no-such.html" target="_blank">The Music Genome Project is no such thing</a>).<br /><br />However, the computational scientists are keen to push these ideas much further. The Google internet search engine is a pretty straightforward implementation of a database search strategy (with a lot of bells and whistles). However, <a href="https://www.wolframalpha.com/" target="_blank">Wolfram Alpha</a> touts itself as a "computational knowledge engine", based on AI — instead of finding a web resource that might contain the answer to a given question (as Google does), it tries to compute the answer from the knowledge in its own databases. It can certainly do some pretty fancy things (see <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/awesome-things-you-can-do-with-wolfram-alpha-2013-7" target="_blank">32 tricks you can do with Wolfram Alpha, the most useful site in the history of the internet</a>). However, if we compare a query for "climate zones" (see <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/03/wine-is-sunlight-held-together-by-water.html" target="_blank">last week's post</a>) in each technology — Google returns links to a series of web pages about climate and climate zones (prominently including Köppen's climate classification), whereas Wolfram Alpha returns nothing more than some data about the climate in the town of Zone, Italy. Artificial Intelligence is alright in its place, but we need to understand what that place is, if we are to use it effectively. Horses for courses, as the saying goes.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-D6W4bjDII9s/Wq4fREQqbhI/AAAAAAAAAGQ/YHHWFotti30iylnRXD4yqRe_iN4KzwmUwCLcBGAs/s1600/Wolfram.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="269" data-original-width="1646" height="67" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-D6W4bjDII9s/Wq4fREQqbhI/AAAAAAAAAGQ/YHHWFotti30iylnRXD4yqRe_iN4KzwmUwCLcBGAs/s400/Wolfram.gif" width="412" /></a></div><br />At the other extreme from simple predictive technology, it has been pointed out that one likely consequence of AI technology is the automation of many tasks currently employing millions of people (<a href="https://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2018/02/08/google-chief-economist-hal-varian-argues-automation-is-essential/" target="_blank">Google Chief Economist Hal Varian argues automation is essential</a>). The only real question is whether this will occur sooner or later, not whether it will occur. The point is that, in the past, only repetitive jobs could be automated by machines, but with AI a much winder range of jobs can now be <b><i>learned</i></b> by newly designed machines. Self-driving cars are an obvious example, following on from the long-standing use of autopilots in aeroplanes. The issue here is that flying a plane is actually easier to automate than is driving a car!<br /><br />In the wine industry, as far as autonomous vehicles are concerned, we already have the <a href="http://www.science20.com/news_articles/wine_production_now_with_more_robots-152703" target="_blank">WineRobot</a>, which wanders the vineyards gathering information about the state of the vines (such as vegetative development, water status, production, and grape composition), just like vineyard managers used to do. We also have the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjeG8CSK0kE&amp;feature=player_embedded" target="_blank">Wall-Ye V.I.N.</a> robot, which carries out the labor-intensive vineyard tasks of pruning and de-suckering; and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGlo7woEhQo" target="_blank">TED</a>, a robot that neatly weeds between the vineyard rows (for those people who don't use sheep to keep their weeds under control). Other ideas about what is now called Robotic Farming are covered in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NO8PmqEI0cc" target="_blank">short video</a> from the Australian Centre for Field Robotics, at the University of Sydney— a farm is a much safer place for autonomous vehicles than is a public road. [Aside: I learned both my biology and my computing at this university.]<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eTA28BYE1Ys/Wq2QcF3iFRI/AAAAAAAAAGA/s6iSeL6s0Psej65n0U23LeTx2uqNfqfcQCLcBGAs/s1600/3729def4e59a04a15bb8077f373c2a38.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="783" height="191" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eTA28BYE1Ys/Wq2QcF3iFRI/AAAAAAAAAGA/s6iSeL6s0Psej65n0U23LeTx2uqNfqfcQCLcBGAs/s400/3729def4e59a04a15bb8077f373c2a38.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />In between these two extremes, the most obvious use of AI systems is likely to involve computerized forecasts, such as early-season vintage forecasts in a vineyard, or sales and price forecasts in a shop. [Note: a forecast is different from a prediction, as I will discuss sometime in a future post.] In these cases, the forecasts are expected to improve through time, as more and more data are gathered, and the AI system continually adjusts itself based on newly found patterns in the data. These forecasts are, thus, adaptive.<br /><br />It is here that I am most skeptical about the benefits of Artificial Intelligence. My example above of the issues with Google Translate seems to be all too pertinent here. Forecasts are problematic no matter how they are implemented; and AI will not necessarily help. The issues with forecasts lie much deeper than mere "intelligence", with the fact that the future is often so disconnected from the present and the past. The old finance "40% Rule" seems all too apt — one can look like a good forecaster simply by following any proposition with a 40% probability (see <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-do-pundits-never-get-it-wrong-call-a-40-chance-1519662425#comments_sector" target="_blank">How do pundits never get it wrong? Call a 40% chance</a>).<br /><br />For a selection of other, rather enthusiastic, discussions of AI and wine, see:<br /><ul><li><a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2018/01/artificial-intelligence-changes-the-wine-world" target="_blank">Artificial intelligence changes the wine world</a></li><li><a href="https://www.mscnewswire.co.nz/keeping-in-touch/item/5873-artificial-intelligence-to-help-wine-profits-flow" target="_blank">Artificial Intelligence to help wine profits flow</a></li><li><a href="https://phys.org/news/2017-07-artificial-intelligence-boosts-wine-bottom.html" target="_blank">Artificial intelligence boosts wine's bottom line</a></li><li><a href="http://www.newindianexpress.com/lifestyle/food/2017/nov/15/the-future-of-wine-artificial-intelligence-to-revolutionise-wine-buying-1701736.html" target="_blank">The future of wine: Artificial Intelligence to revolutionise wine-buying</a></li><li><a href="https://thespoon.tech/wine-and-ai-a-perfect-pairing-of-technology-and-tradition/" target="_blank">Wine and AI: a perfect pairing of technology and tradition</a></li><li><a href="http://www.foodandwine.com/fwx/drink/artificial-intelligence-can-predict-wine-prices" target="_blank">Artificial intelligence can predict wine prices</a></li></ul><hr />* Have you ever noticed that the only two groups who refer to their customers as "users" are the computer industry and the illicit drug industry? I think that this is very revealing.David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-79748946482006502612018-03-26T00:30:00.000+02:002018-03-27T18:38:21.655+02:00Wine is sunlight held together by waterThe title quotation is usually attributed to Galileo Galilei (along with a lot of other things). Whoever said it certainly had the grapevines' physiology right, although as far as the vines' environment is concerned it should mention both warmth and water.<br /><br />When we are told about where grapevines will grow and produce nice wine, we are often shown a map something like this first one. This indicates that the world's wine-producing regions are generally between latitudes 30° and 50°, both north and south.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V0-xKjZMgE4/WqzWhL7m-FI/AAAAAAAAAC0/OdG0Esvr7K4dTZOomXL_FoqnxkgNyB4HwCLcBGAs/s1600/Wine-Regions-picture.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Latitudinal range of vineyard areas" border="0" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1600" height="206" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V0-xKjZMgE4/WqzWhL7m-FI/AAAAAAAAAC0/OdG0Esvr7K4dTZOomXL_FoqnxkgNyB4HwCLcBGAs/s400/Wine-Regions-picture.jpg" title="Latitudinal range of vineyard areas" width="400" /></a></div><br />However, this view is rather simplistic, because grapevines don't really know or care about latitude, as such — they avoid the tropics (which is too warm and wet) and the poles (too cold). Besides, the vineyards of places like Sweden are further north than 50°, because it is warm enough for them to grow there.<br /><br />So, a more refined map looks like this next one, which emphasizes temperature as a prime determinant of vineyard location — the world's wine-producing regions are generally in areas where the median temperature is between 10 °C and 20 °C (or 50–68 °F).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2AUXezclRg0/WqzWlyNPGyI/AAAAAAAAADA/0K__JQOV3AEqPtvF19AJ8Wd5-ifFaVquwCEwYBhgL/s1600/Global%2Bdistribution%2Bof%2Bviticulture%2Bin%2Bthe%2B10-20%25C2%25B0%2BC%2Bisotherm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Temperature range of vineyard areas" border="0" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1128" height="282" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2AUXezclRg0/WqzWlyNPGyI/AAAAAAAAADA/0K__JQOV3AEqPtvF19AJ8Wd5-ifFaVquwCEwYBhgL/s400/Global%2Bdistribution%2Bof%2Bviticulture%2Bin%2Bthe%2B10-20%25C2%25B0%2BC%2Bisotherm.jpg" title="Temperature range of vineyard areas" width="400" /></a></div><br />Clearly, this is not good enough, either. As shown in the map, there are plenty of grapevines outside this temperature range, including those of Sweden.<br /><br />We could refine the temperature idea by focusing on the temperature solely during the growing season, as in this next map. This particular map is for the world as it was back in 1950 — by the turn of the century the temperature boundaries had detectably contracted north- and south-ward, as the world warms up.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ctQvrF9dlJg/WqzZlxgyO0I/AAAAAAAAADI/eP-2TB6ObHMZWmKhDloP7ufYe673ypwFACLcBGAs/s1600/slide_11.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Growing-season temperature range of vineyard areas" border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ctQvrF9dlJg/WqzZlxgyO0I/AAAAAAAAADI/eP-2TB6ObHMZWmKhDloP7ufYe673ypwFACLcBGAs/s400/slide_11.jpg" title="Growing-season temperature range of vineyard areas" width="400" /></a></div><br />This idea was taken to its logical conclusion with the work of Maynard Amerine and Albert Winkler in the 1940s, who developed the idea of Growing Degree-Days — the sum of the daily temperatures above 10 °C (50 °F) during the grapes' growing season. This allows vineyard regions to be classified according to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winkler_index" target="_blank">Winkler Index</a>, indicating which grape varieties are likely to do well: Region I (eg. Chardonnay, Pinot noir, Riesling, Sauvignon blanc), Region II (Cabernet sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Semillion, Syrah/Shiraz), Region III (Barbera, Grenache, Nebbiolo, Syrah/Shiraz, Tempranillo), Region IV (Carignan, Cinsault, Mourvèdre, Sangiovese, Tempranillo) and Region V (Fiano, Nero d'Avola, Palomino, Primitivo).<br /><br />However, we still haven't taken water into account in this discussion. Indeed, geographers have long used the idea of combining temperature with water availability (particularly seasonality) to define geographical regions of the earth. Probably the best-known example of this is shown in the next map, where each color represents an area (zone) with a particular climate regime. Clearly, there is more to the location of these zones than simply latitude or temperature isotherms.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JQgGtaDtEFs/Wqza6SHy5uI/AAAAAAAAADU/2GMMz1--R-g9-zxXMtrPnb83SEqYLndzACLcBGAs/s1600/World.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="1080" height="270" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JQgGtaDtEFs/Wqza6SHy5uI/AAAAAAAAADU/2GMMz1--R-g9-zxXMtrPnb83SEqYLndzACLcBGAs/s400/World.gif" width="540" /></a></div><br />The person credited with initiating the drawing of this climate-classification map is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wladimir_K%C3%B6ppen" target="_blank">Wladimir Köppen</a>, a geographer who worked mostly in Austria and Germany between 1880 and 1940. The final version of his map was a joint work with the German climatologist Rudolf Geiger, and so the map is usually credited as the Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification. The <a href="http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at/present.htm" target="_blank">current (updated) version</a> of this map is available from the Climate Change &amp; Infectious Diseases Department at the University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, with another version also available on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wladimir_K%C3%B6ppen#/media/File:World_K%C3%B6ppen_Classification_(with_authors).svg" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>.<br /><br />For our purposes, we are interested in the following climate zones:<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fS1XgyEu2sI/Wqznu2iZE2I/AAAAAAAAADk/a5_yMNlNmVAwR-PaFuXyYdzTOqeSPomKgCLcBGAs/s1600/Legend.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="75" data-original-width="324" height="46" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fS1XgyEu2sI/Wqznu2iZE2I/AAAAAAAAADk/a5_yMNlNmVAwR-PaFuXyYdzTOqeSPomKgCLcBGAs/s200/Legend.gif" width="200" /></a></div>Indeed, almost all of the world's vineyards are in zones Csa, Csb, Cfa or Cfb. The definitions of these zones are:<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Csa — temperate, summer dry, hot summer<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Csb — temperate, summer dry, warm summer<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cfa — temperate, fully humid, hot summer<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cfb — temperate, fully humid, warm summer<br />The "C" classification (named Temperate) refers to the mean temperature of the coldest month being &gt; -3 °C. The "f" and "s" classifications refer to whether there is enough rain throughout the year (f) or little to no rain during summer (s). The "a" and "b" classifications refer to areas with the warmest month ≥ 22 °C (a) or at least four months with ≥ 10 °C (b).<br /><br />This classification works for our purpose here because of the <a href="http://slideplayer.com/slide/10810978/" target="_blank">climate requirements</a> of viticulture:<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;mild winters with low freeze / frost risk;<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;stable, cloud-free conditions during bloom;<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;warm and dry summers;<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;dry maturation period with moderate to high daily temperature range.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-y0U-1bnmjh0/WqzqaitrI6I/AAAAAAAAAD0/pqwXob4IBCMp_yN7n1WB9ZS6FMn6EqL_wCLcBGAs/s1600/GoogleEarth_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Köppen-Geiger climate zones around the Mediterranean" border="0" data-original-height="758" data-original-width="800" height="378" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-y0U-1bnmjh0/WqzqaitrI6I/AAAAAAAAAD0/pqwXob4IBCMp_yN7n1WB9ZS6FMn6EqL_wCLcBGAs/s400/GoogleEarth_2.jpg" title="Köppen-Geiger climate zones around the Mediterranean" width="400" /></a></div><br />The validity of these classification zones can be seen in the above map of the area north and south of the Mediterranean. All of the current vineyard areas fit into zones Csa, Csb, Cfa or Cfb, including those of Sweden. The same is true, for example, of Australasia (South Australia: Csb; Western Australia: Csa, Csb; Victoria, Tasmania, New Zealand: Cfb; New South Wales: Cfa, Cfb), South America (Argentina: Cfa, Cfb; Chile: Csb, Cfb), and South Africa (Csa, Csb).<br /><br />North America also fits into this scheme, with one group of intriguing exceptions. As shown in the final map, for the USA we have: California (Csa, Csb), Oregon and Washington (Csb, Cfb), and much the rest of USA (mostly Cfa, with bits of Cfb, such as the vineyards of New Mexico, the nation’s <a href="https://www.lcsun-news.com/story/money/2018/03/16/new-mexico-wine-industry-vineyards-vintages-journalists-tour/424031002/" target="_blank">oldest wine-growing region</a>). For Canada, the vineyards of British Columbia also fit into zones Csb and Cfb.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7dVDJkAgt9I/WqzyHTwVpbI/AAAAAAAAAEI/AhSNt4RsboMfLejEzCq0zYwB1B-xrkkFQCLcBGAs/s1600/NorthAm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Köppen-Geiger climate zones of North America" border="0" data-original-height="841" data-original-width="1261" height="280" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7dVDJkAgt9I/WqzyHTwVpbI/AAAAAAAAAEI/AhSNt4RsboMfLejEzCq0zYwB1B-xrkkFQCLcBGAs/s400/NorthAm.jpg" title="Köppen-Geiger climate zones of North America" width="420" /></a></div><br />We would also conclude from this map that certain parts of North America are likely to be very poor for viticulture, including southern Florida (too warm and humid), and most of the Rocky Mountains (too dry at times when the vines need water). To be consistent, this conclusion should also apply to all of the north-central and north-eastern US states, plus all of central and eastern Canada — all of this area is in climate zone Dfb (in purple on the map).<br /><br />The "D" classification refers to the mean temperature of the coldest month being &lt; -3 °C. This is the so-called Snow climate zone rather the Temperate zone. This zone violates the viticulture requirement of mild winters with low freeze / frost risk.<br /><br />And yet, there are vineyards throughout this Dfb zone, including the US states of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Vermont and Maine, plus the Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia, Ontario and Quebec. Mind you, none of these are extensive viticultural areas, although the wineries of the Finger Lakes, at least, are hardly unknown.<br /><br />Grape-growing is not an easy proposition in zone Dfb, which is why few people try it. In the past, some people in these areas have chosen to use native vine species (including <i>Vitis labrusca</i> and <i>Vitis riparia</i>) instead of the Mediterranean one (<i>Vitis vinifera</i>), on the grounds that they will grow happily in their local environment; or people have produced hardy hybrids of these native species with <i>V. vinifera</i>. Nevertheless, most vignerons have persisted with the introduced vine species, and dealt with the climate zone as best they can. Perhaps one of the important climatic factors is the presence near many of the vineyards of large bodies of water: The Great Lakes — this will significantly moderate the effects of freezes and frosts.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZgZ1NWA7RZU/WrYs3hJf5fI/AAAAAAAAAGw/9K3tjxisynAX8GOljJSDF3hRGvzAGbVbACLcBGAs/s1600/OldManPlain.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Old Man Plain (from Wikipedia)" border="0" data-original-height="141" data-original-width="453" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZgZ1NWA7RZU/WrYs3hJf5fI/AAAAAAAAAGw/9K3tjxisynAX8GOljJSDF3hRGvzAGbVbACLcBGAs/s1600/OldManPlain.gif" title="Old Man Plain (from Wikipedia)" /></a></div><br />Almost no-one else tries to grow wine grapes as a paying proposition in climate zones outside the C (Temperate) classification; at least, not without considerable help. For example, Australia's largest wine-producing area is largely in a BSk zone (B = arid, S = steppe, k = cold arid). This area is capable of Western-style agriculture only because it has a massive flood-irrigation scheme (called the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riverina" target="_blank">Riverina</a>) — the area is otherwise semi-arid (see the photo). When you see a bottle of wine that says it comes from "South-eastern Australia", rather than from a named viticultural region, this is where it originates (eg. Yellow Tail).<br /><br />Finally, Guido Grimm has recently pointed out to me the existence of a small amount of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanzanian_wine" target="_blank">Tanzanian wine</a>, which is produced in a BSh zone (h = hot arid) of Sub-Saharan Africa.<br /><br /><hr /><br />This post was inspired by a post on the blog of my friend and colleague Guido Grimm (<a href="https://researchinpeace.blogspot.com/2018/02/wladimir-koppen-climate-vegetation.html" target="_blank">Wladimir Köppen — a climate-vegetation genius, and what this has to do with wine</a>), to whom all credit is due.David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-39688300513615481872018-03-19T00:30:00.000+01:002018-03-19T00:30:06.707+01:00Laube versus Suckling — their scores differ, but what does that mean for us?There seem to be two general attitudes toward professional wine-quality scores. First, they can be seen as the sum of assessments of various sensory "components" of the wine. The classic example of this is the UCDavis 20-point score, which was originally designed to train students in detecting wine faults. This approach has been perhaps taken to its logical extreme in the fascinating book by Clive S. Michelson, <i>Tasting and Grading Wine</i> (2005. JAC International).<br /><br />The alternative view is that the scores are expert, but subjective, opinions about the quality of the wine. For example, on March 15 1994, in response to a reader query, the Editor of the <i>Wine Spectator</i> magazine noted:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">In brief, our editors do not assign specific values to certain properties of a wine when we score it. We grade it for overall quality as a professor grades an essay test. We look, smell and taste for many different attributes and flaws, then we assign a score based on how much we like the wine overall.</blockquote>This seems to be the approach adopted by most of the professional media, especially when they use the 100-point scale. Some of them claim to be considering wine components individually (eg. complexity, concentration, balance, texture, length, overall elegance), but there is little evidence of this in their final scores.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F-i2-u9EivU/Wply0uichiI/AAAAAAAAAAs/UOMP3Wp-CecSh5zqa-ISmEJpV8v2sgUzgCLcBGAs/s1600/laube.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="James Laube" border="0" data-original-height="125" data-original-width="95" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F-i2-u9EivU/Wply0uichiI/AAAAAAAAAAs/UOMP3Wp-CecSh5zqa-ISmEJpV8v2sgUzgCLcBGAs/s1600/laube.jpg" title="James Laube" /></a><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zH2kuNFSJRk/Wply0qxAceI/AAAAAAAAAAo/1dlgmc-askUmMpb7qiTG9-4i8ZXqzA71QCLcBGAs/s1600/suckling.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="James Suckling" border="0" data-original-height="125" data-original-width="95" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zH2kuNFSJRk/Wply0qxAceI/AAAAAAAAAAo/1dlgmc-askUmMpb7qiTG9-4i8ZXqzA71QCLcBGAs/s1600/suckling.jpg" title="James Suckling" /></a></div><br />I have shown in several blog posts that professional wine commentators do not necessarily provide comparable wine-quality scores when tasting the same wine. This can happen for many reasons, including different expertise, different personal preferences, different wine bottles, and different tasting conditions. This is why we seem to both love and hate wine critics. Let's look at this issue in more detail.<br /><br /><b>An interesting exercise</b><br /><br />To look at variation in wine-quality scores, it is of interest to eliminate the last two factors listed above (bottles and tasting conditions), by having the scores be produced from the same bottle at the same time. This, of course, is what happens at most group wine tastings; but rarely do we see published the scores from several people at a single tasting, to make the direct comparison.<br /><br />However, one pair of commentators where we <i>can</i> do this is James Laube and James Suckling who, at various times, have both provided wine-quality scores to <i>Wine Spectator</i> magazine regarding Cabernet wines, with Laube as the California expert and Suckling as the Bordeaux expert. Suckling has subsequently <a href="https://www.jamessuckling.com/" target="_blank">parted company</a> with the magazine, but Laube <a href="http://www.winespectator.com/blogs/archive/id/1" target="_blank">remains</a> as their California correspondent.<br /><br />The dataset I will use here is from the "Cabernet Challenge" of 1996 (see <i>Wine Spectator</i> for September 15, 1996, pp. 32–48), in which the two James tasted 10 California Cabernet blends and 10 Bordeaux red wines from both the 1985 and 1990 vintages. This gives us 40 bottles of wine with which to compare their scores.<br /><br />The data are shown in the first graph, with Laube's scores vertically and Suckling's horizontally. Each point represents one of the 40 bottles.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oClSmqwCeUs/WplN4tWiYrI/AAAAAAAAAAQ/bZZm6iI8CD8i1k66IHUaD2PH3JByocASwCLcBGAs/s1600/LaubeSuckling1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Suckling vs. Laube for 1985 and 1990 cabernets" border="0" data-original-height="1219" data-original-width="1243" height="391" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oClSmqwCeUs/WplN4tWiYrI/AAAAAAAAAAQ/bZZm6iI8CD8i1k66IHUaD2PH3JByocASwCLcBGAs/s400/LaubeSuckling1.gif" title="Suckling vs. Laube for 1985 and 1990 cabernets" width="400" /></a></div><br />I don't know about you, but this does not look too good, to me, in spite of the fact that Marvin Shanken, as the Editor of the article, claimed: "For the most part, our two critics found themselves in much agreement". To me, there is a wide spread of points in the graph — the scores differ by up to 9 points, with 5 of the bottles differing by more than 6 points. Furthermore, the mathematical correlation indicates only 29% agreement between the two sets of scores.<br /><br />However, it is worth noting that the average scores from the two critics are almost identical (90.5), with very similar maximum (100 vs. 98) and minimum (both 82) scores. On average, Laube gave slightly higher scores to the California wines than to the Bordeaux wines; and Suckling gave lightly higher scores to the Bordeaux wines than to the California wines.<br /><br />Now, let's look at what we might expect from critics who <i>do</i> agree. This next graph shows what perfect agreement would look like (the solid line) — for bottles whose points are on this line, the two James perfectly agreed with each other. Clearly, this is only 5 out of the 40 bottles. The Laube score is &gt; the Suckling score 18 times, and 17 times it is the other way around.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ANGQrjDel-Y/WplN4ekEUdI/AAAAAAAAAAc/kbErqjNfIPMqN1VP_Gs9zNi1N559HTtUgCEwYBhgL/s1600/LaubeSuckling2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Suckling vs. Laube for 1985 and 1990 cabernets" border="0" data-original-height="1220" data-original-width="1242" height="392" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ANGQrjDel-Y/WplN4ekEUdI/AAAAAAAAAAc/kbErqjNfIPMqN1VP_Gs9zNi1N559HTtUgCEwYBhgL/s400/LaubeSuckling2.gif" title="Suckling vs. Laube for 1985 and 1990 cabernets" width="400" /></a></div><br />The two dashed lines in the graph show us ±2 points from perfect agreement — for bottles between the two lines, the two James' point scores were within 2 points of each other. This allows for the approximate nature of expert opinions — technically, we are allowing for the fact that the scores are presented with 1-point precision (eg. 88 vs. 89 points) but the experts cannot actually be 1-point accurate in their assessment.<br /><br />There are only 23 of the 40 bottles (58%) between the dashed lines. So, even when we allow for the approximate nature of expert opinions, there is not much more agreement here than there is disagreement.<br /><br />Another way of dealing with the approximate nature of expert scores is to greatly reduce the number of score categories, so that all the experts need to do to agree is pick the same category. This is the reasoning behind using star scores instead of points (eg. 3 or 5 stars), or word descriptions instead of numbers. The <i>Wine Spectator</i> does it this way:<br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="white-space: nowrap;" valign="top">95 – 100<br />90 – 94<br />85 – 89<br />80 – 84<br />75 – 79<br />50 – 74 </td><td align="left" style="white-space: nowrap;" valign="top">&nbsp;Classic: a great wine<br />&nbsp;Outstanding: a wine of superior character and style<br />&nbsp;Very good: a wine with special qualities<br />&nbsp;Good: a solid, well-made wine<br />&nbsp;Mediocre: a drinkable wine that may have minor flaws<br />&nbsp;Not recommended </td></tr></tbody></table><br />So, I have shown this scheme in the third graph. For bottles within the boxes, the two James' point scores agree as to the word categories of wine quality. Once again, this is only 25 of the 40 wines (63%). So, even this broad-brush approach to wine quality assessment provides only two-thirds agreement between the two critics.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EpJuuPfWGBA/WplN45Log0I/AAAAAAAAAAY/S37zbc9ttiEcv3Z8ebEe6c4xEITmPzc-ACEwYBhgL/s1600/LaubeSuckling3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Suckling vs. Laube for 1985 and 1990 cabernets" border="0" data-original-height="1218" data-original-width="1242" height="391" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EpJuuPfWGBA/WplN45Log0I/AAAAAAAAAAY/S37zbc9ttiEcv3Z8ebEe6c4xEITmPzc-ACEwYBhgL/s400/LaubeSuckling3.gif" title="Suckling vs. Laube for 1985 and 1990 cabernets" width="400" /></a></div><br />As an aside, it is worth noting the overall low scores given to the wines. Only 17 of the wines scored &gt;90 points, even though they are all quite expensive. The only one of the 40 wines that I have tasted is the 1985 Château Mouton-Rothschild, and I was no more impressed by it than was either of the two James (85 vs. 89 points).<br /><br /><b>What does this mean for us?</b><br /><br />The magazine is presenting their scores as representing some sort of <i>Wine Spectator</i> standard of quality, but clearly this is not an objective standard of quality. The scores are personal (but expert) judgments by their individual critics, who may have very little in common. At issue here is whether quality is an intrinsic property of wine, or whether it is mainly context dependent (see <a href="http://www.wineanorak.com/wineblog/longer-articles/some-thoughts-on-wine-quality-an-intrinsic-or-extrinsic-property-of-a-wine" target="_blank">Jamie Goode</a>).<br /><br />The formal explanation for the degree of disagreement is this: the tasters are not using the same <b>scoring scheme</b> to make their assessments, even though they are expressing those assessments using the same <b>scale</b>. This is not just a minor semantic distinction, but is instead a fundamental and important property of anything expressed mathematically. As an example, it means that when two tasters produce a score of 85 it does not necessarily imply that they have a similar opinion about the wine; and if one produces 85 points and the other 90 then they do not necessarily differ in their opinion.<br /><br />This situation is potentially a serious problem for all wine-quality assessments, when the scores represent expert, but subjective, opinions. Scores will look the same because they are written using the same scale, and people will inevitably try to compare them. But, if the scale does not have the same meaning for any given pair of people, then the numbers <i>cannot</i> be validly compared, <i>because</i> they have different meanings.** Not only would we be comparing apples and oranges, we would be comparing different (but unknown) numbers of apples and oranges. What is the point of that?<br /><br />I will look at the mathematical consequences of this topic in a future post, illustrating the issue with a well-known data set.<br /><br />Finally, one practical consequence of this mathematical characteristic is clearly being exploited by wine marketers. When looking at these scores on the web, it quickly became obvious that the wine stores are simply choosing to report the higher of the two critics' scores, when advertising any of the 40 wines, almost never producing both scores. This is an interesting example of "cherry picking".<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BDpTz9Z9DjY/Wpqss-2jBiI/AAAAAAAAABI/-TEniQIZ7JsBRp0qfNl9k0zgrQu9k3NMACLcBGAs/s1600/mondavi_wine_dot_com.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Reproduced from Robert Dwyer at Palate Press" border="0" data-original-height="159" data-original-width="219" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BDpTz9Z9DjY/Wpqss-2jBiI/AAAAAAAAABI/-TEniQIZ7JsBRp0qfNl9k0zgrQu9k3NMACLcBGAs/s1600/mondavi_wine_dot_com.gif" title="Reproduced from Robert Dwyer at Palate Press" /></a></div><br />Thanks to Bob Henry for all of his help with this post — he has long championed the use of standardized wine-quality scoring schemes, often in vain.<br /><br />** As a specific example, here are quotes from each of the two critics. James Suckling: "I was more concerned with the texture and aftertaste of the wines than with their aromatic qualities or flavor characteristics." James Laube: "I like my wines young, rich, highly concentrated and loaded with fruit flavors."David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-90100785204997448242018-03-12T00:30:00.000+01:002018-03-12T00:30:02.215+01:00The rise and rise of New Zealand wineWine from New Zealand has very much become flavor of the month in many parts of the world. According to the recent book by Warren Moran (<i>New Zealand Wine: The Land, The Vines, The People</i>. 2017), the New Zealand wine industry only really got going 50 years ago, and as recently as 1990 Müller-Thurgau was it’s principal grape variety. However, the NZ vineyard area has been growing rapidly for the past 20 years (see the first graph), since it started to focus on Sauvignon blanc, instead. And yet, even the <i>Wine Advocate</i> did not have its first comprehensive report on New Zealand until 2008.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1safIga9lok/WnpMhPNSl9I/AAAAAAAABNM/uiKWwfuiN3s-iNI8jn5m9HO29rax1WePACLcBGAs/s1600/Hectares.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="890" data-original-width="1188" height="298" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1safIga9lok/WnpMhPNSl9I/AAAAAAAABNM/uiKWwfuiN3s-iNI8jn5m9HO29rax1WePACLcBGAs/s400/Hectares.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br />Wine exports have continued to increase along with production, particularly at the premium end of the market. I thought that a good way to explore this might be by comparing recent exports trends with those of their nearest geographical and socio-political rivals, Australia.<br /><br />The wine export data come from <a href="http://www.uiv.it/wine-by-numbers/" target="_blank">Wine by Numbers</a> (<i>Il Corriere Vinicolo</i> n. 23, July 2017), which covers the years from 2005 to 2016, inclusive, plus the recent <a href="https://www.therealreview.com/2018/02/15/sales-to-china-boosts-australian-wine-exports/" target="_blank">Wine Export Report</a> for 2017. This next graph illustrates the annual trends for both countries, using Australian dollars for the wine export value.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yLaZuHTs11Q/WoYIV2OY1PI/AAAAAAAABOs/e1_cnNuiZcQPgODkJZsBwEv0seFBKyJqACLcBGAs/s1600/Both2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Annual wine exports from Australia and New Zealand" border="0" data-original-height="906" data-original-width="1455" height="248" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yLaZuHTs11Q/WoYIV2OY1PI/AAAAAAAABOs/e1_cnNuiZcQPgODkJZsBwEv0seFBKyJqACLcBGAs/s400/Both2.gif" title="Annual wine exports from Australia and New Zealand" width="400" /></a></div><br />As I noted in a previous post (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/09/getting-question-right.html" target="_blank">Getting the question right</a>), Australia has had its ups and downs in the export world this century. Australian wine was itself the flavor of the month back in the 1990s, when good wine was available from Australia more cheaply than from many other countries. Times have changed since then; but a comeback of sorts appears to be in progress, starting from 2014.<br /><br />By comparison, the rise and rise of New Zealand wine exports has been inexorable. They haven't caught Australia's value yet, nor do they look like they will do so any time soon; but this may depend on exactly what the exports markets consist of. Apparently, the New Zealand wine industry has a target of NZ$2 billion of exports by 2020 (<a href="https://www.nzwine.com/en/news-media/statistics-reports/new-zealand-winegrowers-annual-report/" target="_blank">New Zealand Winegrowers Annual Report 2017</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ziretjj4wGk/WmyxjXutUOI/AAAAAAAABKM/Kzwol5zVOS4mNWqoWyxAS1nlCOjmhewLACEwYBhgL/s1600/Aust.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Annual wine exports from Australia" border="0" data-original-height="911" data-original-width="1455" height="250" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ziretjj4wGk/WmyxjXutUOI/AAAAAAAABKM/Kzwol5zVOS4mNWqoWyxAS1nlCOjmhewLACEwYBhgL/s400/Aust.gif" title="Annual wine exports from Australia" width="400" /></a></div><br />So, let's take a look at Australia, first, for comparison, before we turn to New Zealand in more detail. The third graph shows Australian wine exports (to 2016) by general world region.<br /><br />As you can see, the North America (mainly the USA) and Europe (mainly the UK) patterns run in parallel. The peak export period coincides with the initial rise of the <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/07/yellow-tail-and-casella-wines.html" target="_blank">Yellow Tail</a> brand. The decline, on the other hand, at least partly reflects the decline of what was then Australia's largest wine company, Southcorp. This decline occurred because they were involved mainly in the budget end of the wine spectrum, where volume sales are essential, margins are tight, and sustainable returns are not likely. This conglomerate was bought (in 2005) by a different conglomerate, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foster%27s_Group" target="_blank">Fosters Group</a> (Australia's biggest beer company), which later (2011) split it's wine-making arm off as what is now Treasury Wine Estates (currently Australia's largest wine producer by total revenue).<br /><br />The sharp rise in the pattern for exports to Asia after 2014 reflects the fact that the Australian wine industry is now specifically targeting the premium wine market in China (the world’s fastest-growing major wine market). Notably, in 2012 China became the biggest destination for Australian bottled exports sold at AU$7.50 per liter and above; and currently China accounts for more than half of Australia’s exports of wine at AU$10 or more per liter. China has become a premium market.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-69IhTF3bE3U/WmzPlwxoKGI/AAAAAAAABK0/QdGSzWTO2qcRuaJRpKTBp6wT3wMWt8GAACLcBGAs/s1600/NZd.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Annual wine exports from New Zealand" border="0" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="1455" height="250" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-69IhTF3bE3U/WmzPlwxoKGI/AAAAAAAABK0/QdGSzWTO2qcRuaJRpKTBp6wT3wMWt8GAACLcBGAs/s400/NZd.gif" title="Annual wine exports from New Zealand" width="400" /></a></div><br />Turning now to New Zealand, the same three geographical regions all show a different pattern from that of the Australian exports. Exports to the Asia/Oceania region principally reflect sales to Australia (not China, yet). These exports have been dominated by Sauvignon blanc, of course, which apparently now accounts for 75% of all NZ wine exports; and since 2008 this has actually been the biggest selling white wine in Australia. This market seems to have been saturated since 2012, with no further increase in sales.<br /><br />Exports to the European region are principally to the UK, as they are for Australia. The graph shows that this market may also be becoming saturated for NZ wine, with a recent plateau in sales. This means that the North America market is now the biggest one for New Zealand exports, mainly to the USA; and it is this market that has shown an inexorable rise since 2011.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bYM9rD2x8eE/Wmy8cbJQN5I/AAAAAAAABKk/NU91EHXaWpYy1NV0xEmg2RrqoHqGdJtrgCLcBGAs/s1600/index.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="79" data-original-width="185" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bYM9rD2x8eE/Wmy8cbJQN5I/AAAAAAAABKk/NU91EHXaWpYy1NV0xEmg2RrqoHqGdJtrgCLcBGAs/s1600/index.png" /></a></div><br />This suggests that we should look at the data in a bit more detail, by country rather than region. The data below also come from <i>Wine by Numbers</i>, this time the annual edition for 2016, which covers the year 2015 only.<br /><br />By volume, almost exactly two-thirds of New Zealand's 210 million liters of wine exports for 2015 were bottled wine, as opposed to the remaining exported in bulk. The three biggest destinations for bottled wine were the USA (28%), the UK (24%) and Australia (24%), while those for bulk wine were the UK (36%), the USA (30%) and Australia (24%). So, most of the NZ wine (81%) went to just three countries (from where it may have been re-exported, of course), with the USA now their global biggest market.<br /><br />However, more revealing is the premiumization of new Zealand wine. We can see this by looking at the dollar value per liter of the bottled wines being exported to various of the top countries, as shown in the table.<br /><br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="right" valign="top"><b>Country</b><br />Japan<br />China<br />Singapore<br />Hong Kong<br />United Arab Emirates<br />Canada<br />Denmark<br />USA<br />UK<br />Sweden<br />Australia<br />Germany<br />Ireland<br />Netherlands </td><td align="right" valign="top"><b>NZ$ / liter</b><br />17.26<br />15.01<br />13.45<br />12.57<br />10.38<br />10.37<br />9.07<br />8.52<br />8.16<br />8.04<br />7.97<br />7.44<br />7.10<br />6.81 </td></tr></tbody></table><br />This indicates that the Asian market takes principally premium bottled wines, whereas the North American and European markets also take some of the cheaper stuff. Indeed, none of the bulk wine actually goes directly to Asia, while France takes slightly more expensive bulk wine than does anywhere else. Premiumization is an important topic in the world of wine marketing, and the New Zealanders seem to have learned the lesson — sometimes, less is more, financially.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_KimAxkByvk/WmzP_qHsxQI/AAAAAAAABK4/aTP0gXtekwoZHOkFmhi_mAOBB2JudS9fQCLcBGAs/s1600/index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="235" data-original-width="214" height="200" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_KimAxkByvk/WmzP_qHsxQI/AAAAAAAABK4/aTP0gXtekwoZHOkFmhi_mAOBB2JudS9fQCLcBGAs/s200/index.jpg" width="182" /></a></div><br />Unfortunately, the combined bulk and bottled export figures do seem to show that the New Zealanders are dumping their cheap wine principally in Australia, a country that already has enough cheap wine of its own. The only export countries where the price per liter of NZ bottled wines was cheaper than Australia were: the Netherlands, Ireland and Germany; and combined these countries imported only 28% of the volume sent to Australia. Similarly, the only bulk-export country where the price per liter was cheaper than Australia was Canada; and it imported only 3% of the volume sent to Australia.<br /><br />The Australia — New Zealand rivalry clearly continues!David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-12509086617308018552018-03-05T00:30:00.001+01:002018-03-16T18:48:38.502+01:00When did California become a "red wine" state?The short answer is: in 1998.<br /><br />California is often perceived as a state that specializes in the making of red wines. However, that image seems to be set mainly by the wines of the Napa Valley, where Cabernet sauvignon wines are king. Indeed, the "cult" wines of the USA principally come from this region, enhancing the state's reputation, which is often the focus of wine writers.<br /><br />However, the most widely planted grape variety is actually Chardonnay, not Cabernet, with 91,333 bearing acres in 2016 versus 84,584 acres, respectively (<a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Grape_Acreage/2017/201704gabtb00.pdf">California Grape Acreage Report 2016 Crop</a>). Furthermore, Chardonnay comprised 14.5% of the 2017 grape-harvest crush, versus 14.2% for Cabernet sauvignon (<a href="https://www.wineindustryadvisor.com/2018/02/09/california-preliminary-grape-crush-report" target="_blank">California Grape Crush Report Preliminary 2017</a>).<br /><br />Indeed, the California Department of Food and Agriculture's data show that it was not all that long ago that the white-wine grape crush exceed that of red-wine grapes. The data in the first graph are from the <i>Crush Report</i> for 2017, and show the crush size for each of the years from 1989 to 2017, inclusive, categorized by grape type. Eating grapes include both Table (fresh) grapes and Raisin (dried) grapes.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cBPK_h1EcoY/WoAtdSS3vlI/AAAAAAAABOI/-Huoh4gFq5QcXQKhYutwccaR23vZgJoHACLcBGAs/s1600/TonsYears.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Crush tonnage of grapes in California through time" border="0" data-original-height="889" data-original-width="994" height="357" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cBPK_h1EcoY/WoAtdSS3vlI/AAAAAAAABOI/-Huoh4gFq5QcXQKhYutwccaR23vZgJoHACLcBGAs/s400/TonsYears.gif" title="Crush tonnage of grapes in California through time" width="400" /></a></div><br />Obviously, before 1996 more white grapes were crushed than red, while the two crushes were almost identical in 1996 and 1997. Since then, the red crush has progressively outstripped the white. Note, also, that in 1992 the red-wine grape crush was even less than that for the edible grapes!<br /><br />So, red-wine grapes have been the most important in California only for the past 20 years. This is not necessarily surprising, as the Bordeaux wine region of south-western France, globally recognized for its red wines, only moved from mostly white wines to mostly reds in the 1970s.<br /><br />The most likely reason for this change in emphasis is also revealed in the same&nbsp;<i>Crush Report</i>. The following graph, taken directly from that report, shows the price paid for the various grape types during the past 10 years.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RDcGtky2_gA/WoAtqt24V8I/AAAAAAAABOM/4QXO63DRj0kTsFrgtzpmUJWpP_JI_JYFwCLcBGAs/s1600/California-Grapes-Dollars-per-Ton-2017-600x418.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="California grape price through time" border="0" data-original-height="407" data-original-width="574" height="283" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RDcGtky2_gA/WoAtqt24V8I/AAAAAAAABOM/4QXO63DRj0kTsFrgtzpmUJWpP_JI_JYFwCLcBGAs/s400/California-Grapes-Dollars-per-Ton-2017-600x418.gif" title="California grape price through time" width="400" /></a></div><br />The graph makes the interesting point that the prices of Table grapes, Raisin grapes, and White-wine grapes have not changed much over the past decade. However, the price or Red-wine grapes has shown an increase of c. 50%. The has been distinctly so in the Napa Valley, of course.<br /><br />The report also shows that in 2017 the Cabernet sauvignon production was up 17% above the 5-year average, while the Chardonnay production was down 13% below the 5-year average. Indeed, the Chardonnay crop was the smallest since 2011, although it remained just ahead of Cabernet as the biggest percentage of the crush (as noted above).<br /><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-25698057014449963082018-02-26T00:30:00.000+01:002018-02-26T00:30:04.991+01:00Social bots and the problems they create for wine marketingIn the 21st century, anyone involved in advertising or selling products needs to be savvy with regard to social media; and this includes the wine industry. Contact with customers via social media (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest, blogs, etc) has not replaced traditional forms of contact (shops, tasting rooms, print reviews, etc), but it is definitely a major new form of interaction.<br /><br />Take this 2010 quote from <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/print/2010/mar/09/entertainment/la-et-bigpicture9-2010mar09" target="_blank">Patrick Goldstein</a>:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">Virtually every survey has shown that younger audiences have zero interest in critics. They take their cues for what movies to see from their peers, making decisions based on the buzz they've heard on Facebook, Twitter or some other form of social networking.</blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ye-wmMbXd6A/WnDQwpz7vJI/AAAAAAAABMY/GCDDKMPQRXcOwKbc7IhVC5ANDl8dJR3ngCLcBGAs/s1600/main.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="484" height="158" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ye-wmMbXd6A/WnDQwpz7vJI/AAAAAAAABMY/GCDDKMPQRXcOwKbc7IhVC5ANDl8dJR3ngCLcBGAs/s200/main.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br />There have many discussions of social media and its commercial use, both in and outside the wine industry; and much of this is overtly enthusiastic and uncritical. We are simply told that the future is already here, with the availability of Big Data. If nothing else, we are told, we may be able to avoid the seemingly endless layers of "middle men" standing between the producer and the customer.<br /><br />In an attempt to provide a somewhat more temperate discussion, I have already provided one blog post about the limitations of social media in the wine industry (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-dangers-of-over-interpreting-big.html" target="_blank">The dangers of over-interpreting Big Data</a>); and I have also noted that community wine-quality scores are no more impartial than are scores from individuals (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/12/are-there-biases-in-community-wine.html" target="_blank">Are there biases in community wine-quality scores?</a>).<br /><br />Here, as another sobering thought, I discuss a further issue that seems to me to be of importance, but which has not received much obvious attention, at least in the wine industry. This is the matter of what are known as <b>social robots</b>, or usually just "bots" for short. Like all human developments, bots can be exploited as well as used responsibly; and we need to understand the consequences of their possible misuses, if we are going to use social media effectively in the wine industry.<br /><br /><b>Bots</b><br /><br />Bots have existed since the beginning of computing. They are simply computer programs that were originally developed to take care of the computer house-keeping when the volume (or speed) of activity gets too much for humans to handle.<br /><br />To this end, they have increased dramatically in number since the advent of the internet. For example, the most prevalent of the so-called "good bots" are the web crawlers and scanners — every web search engine (Google, Yahoo, Bing, DuckDuckGo, Yandex, etc) has a mass of bots crawling the web, gathering data for use in the databased indexes that make speedy web searches possible.<br /><br />Social robots, on the other hand, operate in the social media, and therefore potentially interact directly with human beings. The good news is that they can address some of the potentially overwhelming aspects of dealing with Big Data (ie. thousands of Facebook pages, tens of thousands of Instagram pictures, millions of Twitter tweets, etc). Let's start with a couple of obvious examples of potentially useful social bots, just to set the scene:<br /><ul><li>trading bots are involved in the automatic buying and selling of investment stocks, shares and cryptocurrencies — see <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/news/bot-activity-plays-major-role-cryptocurrency-price-swings/" target="_blank">Nathan Reiff</a> (December 2017)</li><li>bots are also involved in the automatic buying of online entertainment tickets — see <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/news/ticketmaster-taking-bots-new-service/" target="_blank">Donna Fuscaldo</a> (March 2017).</li></ul>Unfortunately, on the other side of the coin we have the so-called "bad bots", which can seriously disrupt human activities. For example, it has been suggested (along with considerable evidence) that the erratic price of cryptocurrencies in recent times has, at least partly, been manipulated by the activities of certain trading bots (eg. those named Spoofy and Picasso) — see <a href="https://hackernoon.com/a-brief-history-of-bitcon-cf358da30bf0" target="_blank">Brian Yahn</a>&nbsp;(January 2018).<br /><br />Bots have, of course, also become prevalent in the world of blogs, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter, and their ilk; and here we potentially have widespread problems. In particular, these bots can wreak havoc with any attempts to make use of social media data for economic purposes. The Big Data ends up being massively misleading, because the web metrics being measured are inflated by the bots' activities, in unpredictable ways. I have discussed the important issue of such biased data before (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/08/why-do-people-get-hung-up-about-sample.html" target="_blank">Why do people get hung up about sample size?</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ubVYJbnSr3I/WnF47gwGsZI/AAAAAAAABM0/Klvrlp7BSfEcGE38TQ4vWNNKjmIXElQbgCLcBGAs/s1600/thinkstockphotos-586712790.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="620" height="169" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ubVYJbnSr3I/WnF47gwGsZI/AAAAAAAABM0/Klvrlp7BSfEcGE38TQ4vWNNKjmIXElQbgCLcBGAs/s320/thinkstockphotos-586712790.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><b>Problems with bots</b><br /><br />According to the 2016 <a href="https://www.incapsula.com/blog/bot-traffic-report-2016.html" target="_blank">Imperva Incapsula Bot Traffic Report</a>, c. 48% of web traffic is by humans, 23% is by good bots, and 29% is by bad bots; so we are not talking about a small problem. To look at the activity of some of the bad bots, let's take blogs first.<br /><br /><u>Blogs</u><br /><br />I first became aware of the scourge of bots with my professional blog, <a href="http://phylonetworks.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">The Genealogical World of Phylogenetic Networks</a>. I used to keep track of the number of visitors to that site, but this has now become a worthless activity, simply because of the number of bots that make visits to the blog's pages. When I see 2,000 visits from the Ukraine in a couple of days, I know that I am not seeing visits from large numbers of English-speaking Ukrainian scientists! Instead, I am seeing referral spam, from so-called "spam bots". Even the blog you are currently reading is prone to get 200 visits from Russia on some days.<br /><br />These bots are trying to create referral traffic from other web sites, so that Google and similar search engines will record their visits, and thus increase the Page Rank of the referring site. From the point of view of the blogger, these spambot visits completely distort the blog's Analytics Referral Data, which is one measure of the success of the blog as part of the world's social media network.<br /><br />In other words, these bots stuff up the Big Data. According to the above-mentioned <a href="https://www.incapsula.com/blog/bot-traffic-report-2016.html" target="_blank">Bot Traffic Report</a>, bot traffic depends on the "size" of the visited site, in terms of the number of daily visits from humans. For my professional blog, the report estimates that visits are likely to be about 25% good bots and 45% bad bots. I would not disagree with those estimates — that is, only 30% of the visits are from actual human beings, who might be reading the blog posts. Sadly, it seems to be impossible to get rid of bot traffic from Blogger blogs.<br /><br />This is a similar (but distinct) issue to that faced by marketers when bots generate "clicks" on online ads, thus artificially increasing traffic to the advertised site. One third of all digital advertising is suspected to be fraudulent, in this sense. For more information, see: <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-about-online-ad-traffic-one-third-is-bogus-1395684863" target="_blank">A 'crisis' in online ads</a>; and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-issuing-refunds-to-advertisers-over-fake-traffic-plans-new-safeguard-1503675395" target="_blank">Google issuing refunds to advertisers over fake traffic</a>.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-V6OgfVbx6Hg/WnF5hSmG60I/AAAAAAAABM8/mhKsSvpqGc0X9nduts29namzX1XrbaAMwCLcBGAs/s1600/tgdaily_2017-11_4bebbcd9-b076-4ead-90b5-a6a2fdf93ba2_brands-online.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="472" data-original-width="814" height="115" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-V6OgfVbx6Hg/WnF5hSmG60I/AAAAAAAABM8/mhKsSvpqGc0X9nduts29namzX1XrbaAMwCLcBGAs/s200/tgdaily_2017-11_4bebbcd9-b076-4ead-90b5-a6a2fdf93ba2_brands-online.png" width="200" /></a></div><br /><u>Facebook</u><br /><br />Moving on to Facebook, there are thousands of bots; see <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/070516/facebook-messenger-has-11k-bots-should-you-care-fb-googl.asp" target="_blank">Facebook Messenger has 11K bots: should you care?</a> Most of these are so-called "chat bots", which are supposed to function as some sort of personal assistant for users, helping to gather information (eg. aggregate content from various online sources, such as news feeds) and/or conduct e-commerce transactions. They try to keep the users interacting within the Facebook environment, rather than having them leave to use another computer program to access content or conduct transactions.<br /><br />This is all well and good, but what about the bad bots? These have become very obvious over the past half-dozen years, and they try to emulate the behavior of humans, and possibly alter the humans' behavior. They do this through the use of fake identities within the social media world, which is rapidly becoming big news.<br /><br />Several studies of social bot infiltration of Facebook (eg. Krombholz et al., <a href="http://scholar.google.se/scholar_url?url=https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/69d5/7ea1d9f9486c75c056c3dcd9d94ea5f06dad.pdf&amp;hl=sv&amp;sa=X&amp;scisig=AAGBfm0UaCYK4rZKrNOzTc8c2xjkeMWrwg&amp;nossl=1&amp;oi=scholarr&amp;ved=0ahUKEwiWp53tmJfYAhUsCpoKHXTbBZwQgAMIKygAMAA" target="_blank">Fake identities in social media: a case study on the sustainability of the Facebook business model</a>) have shown that more than 20% of legitimate users will accept "friendship" requests indiscriminately, and that more than 60% will automatically accept requests from accounts with at least one contact in common. This makes it very easy to use fake identities for any purpose whatsoever, including the false appearance of social media popularity and influence.<br /><br />It has therefore been obvious for some years that people have been <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0912/buying-followers-on-social-media-sites.aspx" target="_blank">Buying followers on social media sites</a>. As noted above, this completely alters the social media analytics, and reduces the usefulness of the Big Data. The extent of this problem was recently discussed in <i>The New York Times</i> (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/01/27/technology/social-media-bots.html?mtrref=undefined&amp;gwh=16E7A500D1DEE9F936A6990620202E54" target="_blank">The follower factory</a>), which noted:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>The Times</i> reviewed business and court records showing that Devumi [a well.known "follower factory"] has more than 200,000 customers, including reality television stars, professional athletes, comedians, TED speakers, pastors and models. In most cases, the records show, they purchased their own followers. In others, their employees, agents, public relations companies, family members or friends did the buying.</blockquote>It matters not how many Facebook friends you have for your winery or wines — instead, we must ask: how many of them are real? Facebook "likes" may not be worth much, any more. Sophisticated bots can create personas that appear to be very credible followers, and they thus are very hard for both people and automated filtering algorithms to detect (see Varol et al., <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.03107" target="_blank">Online human-bot interactions: detection, estimation, and characterization</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eYwKI5SPVVw/WnF15PNLFpI/AAAAAAAABMo/0qA_Q0TeiCkeSc5w3uJ5r-XZyM8NyymqgCLcBGAs/s1600/http_mashable.com_wp-content_uploads_2009_03_twitter-bots-cartoon.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="590" height="302" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eYwKI5SPVVw/WnF15PNLFpI/AAAAAAAABMo/0qA_Q0TeiCkeSc5w3uJ5r-XZyM8NyymqgCLcBGAs/s320/http_mashable.com_wp-content_uploads_2009_03_twitter-bots-cartoon.gif" width="320" /></a></div><u>Twitter</u><br /><br />Moving on to Twitter now, it has been observed that Twitter is an ideal environment for bots. Early social media bots were mainly designed for the automatic posting of content, and Twitter is the most effective place for that; see <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/news/twitter-may-have-45-million-bots-its-hands/" target="_blank">Twitter may have 45 million bots on its hands</a>. Estimates of the number of bots on Twitter are 10-15% of the accounts.<br /><br />So, in addition to the fake-identity problem outlined above, Twitter has an extra, very large problem — the rapid spread of misleading information (see Shao et al., <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.07592" target="_blank">The spread of fake news by social bots</a>). As Ferrara et al. (<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1407.5225" target="_blank">The rise of social bots)</a> have noted:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">These bots mislead, exploit, and manipulate social media discourse with rumors, spam, malware, misinformation, slander, or even just noise. This may result in several levels of damage to society.</blockquote>It is obvious that emotions are contagious in the social media; and Twitter bots seem to be particularly active in the early spread of viral claims, hoaxes, click-bait headlines, and fabricated reports. A recent article from the <i>Media Insight Project</i> discusses <a href="https://www.americanpressinstitute.org/publications/reports/survey-research/millennials-news/" target="_blank">How millennials get news: inside the habits of America’s first digital generation</a>, and it is now clear that the social media are of prime importance. So, the contagious spread of emotive false news is a really big issue.<br /><br />As an aside, it is worth pointing out that this Twitter phenomenon is not actually new, it is simply magnified these days. In the old days, it was the internet newsgroups that were the primary online mechanism for spreading commentary. One classic example of their effect was the furore that arose over the 1994 release of the original flawed Intel Pentium microprocessor (see <a href="http://www.emery.com/1e/pentium.htm" target="_blank">The Pentium Chip story: an internet learning experience</a>). Intel did not anticipate the speed of the news spread, nor deal with it effectively.<br /><br />However, our primary concern in this blog post is with the serious alteration of social media analytics that comes from the presence of Twitter bots. What worth is the following of your wine or winery on Twitter? How much of it comes from automated accounts? Once again, the use of Big Data becomes problematic when we cannot rely on its authenticity.<br /><br /><u>Instagram</u><br /><br />Instagram is apparently the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-you-measure-a-wines-worth-in-likes-1516299552" target="_blank">favorite social media</a> of many wine professionals. However, this post is already long enough, so I will skip any detailed discussion here. Instead, you can read: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/06/business/media/instagram-bots.html" target="_blank">How bots are inflating Instagram egos</a>. The issue is the basically the same thing I have been discussing — biased metrics arise from inflated "likes" created by bad bots.<br /><br /><b>Conclusions</b><br /><br />As far as the adoption of social media is concerned, I feel that we are still being given the hard sell. To take an analogy, it is like we are being told to buy "a quality used car" — but what sort of quality? Good quality or poor quality? High quality or low quality? Everything has some sort of quality!<br /><br />We need to think critically about both the pros and the cons of the social media and its associated Big Data. Enthusiasm is all very well, in its place, but it cannot substitute for careful thought about how we use social media in the wine industry. I don't think that the social media gurus have come to terms with bots yet, in terms of analyzing Big Data. What use is Big Data that have been biased by the behavior of bots?<br /><br />In particular, it seems that the most important practical role for social media is that it can help publicize the existence of companies and their products or services. This makes it an information channel; but this does not necessarily make it a sales channel. We need to keep these two ideas distinct. Bots are not necessarily a problem for the mere advertising of a product, because we do not <i>need</i> to measure web metrics, which they can distort. But selling is a different matter, because we need to assess how effective is the reach of social media, in terms of successful sales (see <a href="http://www.wineintelligence.com/social-medias-disappointing-numbers-game/" target="_blank">Social media’s disappointing numbers game</a>). Here, bots are potentially a serious problem.<br /><br /><u>Thanks</u><br /><br />A number of the ideas here, and some of the information, came from discussions with Bob Henry, who also directed me to some of the online literature.David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-75924436885117186852018-02-19T00:30:00.000+01:002018-02-19T00:30:00.483+01:00Wine-quality scores for premium wines are not consistent through timeWhen dealing with professional wine-quality scores, the usual attitude seems to be: "one wine, one score". We have all seen wine retailers where, for each wine, only one quality score is advertised from each well-known wine critic or magazine. This is often either the most recent score that has been provided, or it is the highest score that has been given to that particular wine.<br /><br />However, we all know that this is overly simplistic. The score assigned to a wine by any given taster can vary through time for one or more of several reasons, including: bottle variation, tasting conditions, personal vagaries, and the age of the wine. So, one score is actually of little practical use, even though that is usually all we get from retailers.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hyDIKfogAG8/Wm-16FY6gBI/AAAAAAAABLI/gbTrl7mtcgEs85jdlCMTjuibfJDhX7P7gCLcBGAs/s1600/YTR_ShelfTalker_4up_UltimateWineChallenge_Shiraz2011_89PTS_2014.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="809" data-original-width="1199" height="134" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hyDIKfogAG8/Wm-16FY6gBI/AAAAAAAABLI/gbTrl7mtcgEs85jdlCMTjuibfJDhX7P7gCLcBGAs/s200/YTR_ShelfTalker_4up_UltimateWineChallenge_Shiraz2011_89PTS_2014.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br />The point about the age of the wine is of particular interest to wine lovers, since there is a perception that premium wines should increase in quality though time (that's why we cellar the wine), before descending slowly to a mature old age (the wine, as well as us). It is therefore of interest to find out whether this is actually so. When wine critics repeatedly taste the same vintage of the same wine, do their assigned quality scores show any particular pattern through time? Or do they correctly assess the wine when it is young, so that it continues to get the same score as it matures?<br /><br />This turns out not to be an easy question to answer, because in very few cases do critics taste a single wine often enough for us to be able to get a worthwhile answer; and when they <b>do</b> do repeat tastings, they do not always publish all of the results. I have previously looked at the issue of repeated tastings by comparing pairs of tastings for several wines (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/03/are-quality-scores-from-repeat-tastings.html" target="_blank">Are the quality scores from repeat tastings correlated?</a>), but I have not looked at single wines through time.<br /><br /><b>Some data</b><br /><br />So, I have searched around, and found as many examples as I can find of situations where a single critic has publicized scores for the same wine (single winery and vintage) at least six different times since 2003. I got my data from CellarTracker, WineSearcher and 90Plus Wines (as described in <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/04/how-large-is-between-critic-variation.html" target="_blank">a previous post</a>)<br /><br />It turns out that very few people have provided quality scores for more than five repeats of any one wine (who can afford to?). It also turns out that the most likely place to find such scores is among the icon wines from the top Bordeaux châteaux. The critics I found are: Jeff Leve (27 wines), Richard Jennings (3 wines), Jancis Robinson (2 wines) and Jean-Marc Quarin (1 wine).<br /><br />The graphs are tucked away at the bottom of this post, and I will simply summarize here what they show. They all show roughly the same thing: a lot of variation in scores through time, with a spread of points for any one wine never being less than 2; and the scores generally show a slight decrease through time.<br /><br />The first four graphs are from Jeff Leve (at the <a href="https://www.thewinecellarinsider.com/" target="_blank">Wine Cellar Insider</a>). The first graph is for seven vintages of Château Latour. The scores generally stay within 2-3 points for each wine; and only the 1990 could be considered to show any sort of increase in score through time. The second graph is for Château Lafite-Rothschild, Château Mouton-Rothschild and Pétrus — the first two generally stay within 2 points, but the latter is all over the place. The third graph covers seven vintages of Château Margaux, which rarely stay within 2 points, and the 2000 vintage shows a strong decrease in score through time. The fourth graph covers nine vintages of Château Haut-Brion. The scores often do not stay within 2 points, especially for the 1961 vintage; and only the 1998 vintage increases slightly through time.<br /><br />The fifth graph is for Richard Jennings (from <a href="http://www.rjonwine.com/" target="_blank">RJ on Wine</a>). All three of the vintages covered show a decrease in score through time. Finally, the sixth graph shows a couple of wines of Château Latour from <a href="https://www.jancisrobinson.com/" target="_blank">Jancis Robinson</a> and one from <a href="http://www.quarin.com/en/home.html" target="_blank">Jean-Marc Quarin</a>, both of whom use a 20-point quality scale. Their scores range by at least 2 points per wine; and Quarin's wine strongly decreases in score through time.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QXuDwJdfx3g/WnCP_YT3q6I/AAAAAAAABMI/jK0v2j_clywrj31Kmd9Pfb_k-qRLIH4CACLcBGAs/s1600/cove-barrel-sign-149x300.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="146" data-original-width="120" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QXuDwJdfx3g/WnCP_YT3q6I/AAAAAAAABMI/jK0v2j_clywrj31Kmd9Pfb_k-qRLIH4CACLcBGAs/s1600/cove-barrel-sign-149x300.jpg" /></a></div><br /><b>Conclusions</b><br /><br />I think that it might be stretching a point to claim that any of these wines show a consistent score through time — they go up and down by at least 2 points, and often more. We certainly can't claim that the scores increase with repeated tastings — if anything, the general trend is more often downwards.<br /><br />There are a couple of possible explanations for this variation, in addition to the obvious one that the critics don't have much idea what they doing.<br /><br />The classic explanation is "bottle variation" (rather than "taster variation"). For example, Robert Parker once wrote (<i>Wine Advocate</i> #205, March 2013): "I had this wine four different times, rating it between 88 and 92, so some bottle variation (or was it my palate?) seems at play." Parker's results would fit perfectly into the graphs below. As confirmation of this point, the widely reported 2010 results of the Australian Wine Research Institute’s Closure Trial certainly indicated a very large amount of bottle variation for cork-closed bottles (see <a href="http://www.winespectator.com/blogs/show/id/42295" target="_blank">Wine Spectator</a>, <a href="http://www.wineloverspage.com/wlp_archive/wineadvisor2/tswa20100416.php" target="_blank">Wine Lovers</a>).<br /><br />If this is the explanation, then the consistently erratic nature of the results, and the expected high quality of the wines, does make me wonder about the advisability of buying expensive wines. Huge bottle variation for cheap wines might be expected, but cannot be acceptable for the supposedly good stuff, even if only for financial reasons. This topic is discussed in more detail by, among others, <a href="http://www.worldoffinewine.com/news/bottle-variation-4203598" target="_blank">Wilfred van Gorp</a>, <a href="http://www.wineanorak.com/blog/2009/10/bottle-variation-spoils-fine-wine.html" target="_blank">Jamie Goode</a>, and <a href="https://bearonwine.com/2012/04/08/im-back-and-some-thoughts-on-bottle-variation/" target="_blank">Bear Dalton</a>.<br /><br />At the extreme, bottle variation can refer to flawed wines, of course. In the graph for Richard Jennings, one of the scores for Château Haut-Brion is missing, because he scored it as "flawed". Indeed, he did this for 3 of the 188 Grand Cru wines for which he provided scores (1.6%). <a href="http://www.winespectator.com/blogs/show/id/Corked-TCA-Wine-Flaw-Laube" target="_blank">James Laube</a> estimates the rate of flawed wine as 3-4%. The other tasters may also have encountered flawed wines, but not reported this, as recently discussed by <a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2017/12/the-mystery-of-the-missing-wine-faults" target="_blank">Oliver Styles</a>.<br /><br />Another point is the extent to which the tasters may have taken into account how old the wine was at the time they tasted it. If the wines are not tasted blind, then this always remains a strong question mark regarding the quality scores assigned.<br /><br />Anyway, there is certainly a lot of leeway for retailers to select the score(s) they report on their shelf talkers and web pages. The <a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/" target="_blank">Wine Searcher</a> database addresses this issue by simply reporting the most recent score available.<br /><br /><b>Graphs</b><br /><br /><u>Jeff Leve</u>:<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0oaA5BMhnlw/WnB9lbEe8tI/AAAAAAAABLw/6_w1StjyemgZ6exbRgkQbo7RXp9sTBQgwCEwYBhgL/s1600/First.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Jeff Leve's scores for Château Latour" border="0" data-original-height="956" data-original-width="1600" height="380" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0oaA5BMhnlw/WnB9lbEe8tI/AAAAAAAABLw/6_w1StjyemgZ6exbRgkQbo7RXp9sTBQgwCEwYBhgL/s640/First.gif" title="Jeff Leve's scores for Château Latour" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aOMSF_hN8uA/WnB9mxiZZ5I/AAAAAAAABLs/5QEYmvH0QU4Z9NC6sZX0RJEc2yDG9p8-ACEwYBhgL/s1600/Second.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Jeff Leve's scores for the Rothschilds and Pétrus" border="0" data-original-height="955" data-original-width="1600" height="380" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aOMSF_hN8uA/WnB9mxiZZ5I/AAAAAAAABLs/5QEYmvH0QU4Z9NC6sZX0RJEc2yDG9p8-ACEwYBhgL/s640/Second.gif" title="Jeff Leve's scores for the Rothschilds and Pétrus" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BTo4U_TYrZ0/WnB9mT2pp0I/AAAAAAAABLo/JLM6OcpRCJ8AdL5WqhDynZjniyRwJ9sXgCEwYBhgL/s1600/Third.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Jeff Leve's scores for Château Margaux" border="0" data-original-height="955" data-original-width="1600" height="380" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BTo4U_TYrZ0/WnB9mT2pp0I/AAAAAAAABLo/JLM6OcpRCJ8AdL5WqhDynZjniyRwJ9sXgCEwYBhgL/s640/Third.gif" title="Jeff Leve's scores for Château Margaux" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Xv14RlAR0nY/WnB9kzyYbzI/AAAAAAAABLY/aCLQpJxGU-Ugpo9IQAE_RG6x0fhJt3-WQCEwYBhgL/s1600/Fourth.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Jeff Leve's scores for Château Haut-Brion" border="0" data-original-height="957" data-original-width="1600" height="380" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Xv14RlAR0nY/WnB9kzyYbzI/AAAAAAAABLY/aCLQpJxGU-Ugpo9IQAE_RG6x0fhJt3-WQCEwYBhgL/s640/Fourth.gif" title="Jeff Leve's scores for Château Haut-Brion" width="640" /></a></div><br /><u>Richard Jennings</u>:<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gj8QWafoa74/WnB9mVl07gI/AAAAAAAABLk/iEMfwpf4Czk4Ljx3r9MnTivZyi4tf7-owCEwYBhgL/s1600/Sixth.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Richard Jennings' scores" border="0" data-original-height="957" data-original-width="1600" height="380" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gj8QWafoa74/WnB9mVl07gI/AAAAAAAABLk/iEMfwpf4Czk4Ljx3r9MnTivZyi4tf7-owCEwYBhgL/s640/Sixth.gif" title="Richard Jennings' scores" width="640" /></a></div><br /><u>Jancis Robinson and Jean-Marc Quarin</u>:<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AUwfUj672Pg/WnB9lO5r69I/AAAAAAAABLc/I4_c8zhDl08fGsr8a9nITh0w17Lcbu5UgCEwYBhgL/s1600/Fifth.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Scores from Jancis Robinson and Jean-Marc Quarin" border="0" data-original-height="972" data-original-width="1600" height="387" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AUwfUj672Pg/WnB9lO5r69I/AAAAAAAABLc/I4_c8zhDl08fGsr8a9nITh0w17Lcbu5UgCEwYBhgL/s640/Fifth.gif" title="Scores from Jancis Robinson and Jean-Marc Quarin" width="640" /></a></div><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-33888559338946130042018-02-12T00:30:00.002+01:002018-02-12T00:30:03.187+01:00California grapes: quantity versus qualityGrape production is a balancing act between quantity and quality — producing a greater quantity is usually assumed to result in a reduction in quality. Therefore, attempts by grape growers to <i>increase</i> grape quality are usually associated with trying to <i>decrease</i> quantity. The relationship works both ways.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KRR3BdjttRc/Wmyo2t65emI/AAAAAAAABJ4/H_dkB9LPoZMgZk3pYmzZquA15kRhLHGvgCLcBGAs/s1600/benanti-winery.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="247" data-original-width="549" height="143" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KRR3BdjttRc/Wmyo2t65emI/AAAAAAAABJ4/H_dkB9LPoZMgZk3pYmzZquA15kRhLHGvgCLcBGAs/s320/benanti-winery.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />It is therefore of interest to look at the big picture of this supposed relationship. This quality/quantity relationship is usually investigated only at the micro level — for example, individual growers might decide to increase their grape quality by thinning their crop. But what happens at the macro level, across all growers? This question seems rarely to have been asked.<br /><br />One simple way to start looking at this topic is to compare the production area of particular grape types with the amount of fruit they produce. We might anticipate that the highest quality varieties produce less fruit than do lower quality varieties. This is a simplistic approach, of course, because there are many factors that affect fruit production, most notably the weather; but if we restrict ourselves to a particular viticultural area, then it might be a useful place to start.<br /><br />So, I decided to look at the California grape data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The latest report is from April 2017, which shows the acreage of productive vines (in each US state), for both <a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Grape_Acreage/2017/201704gabtb05.pdf" target="_blank">red varieties</a> and <a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Grape_Acreage/2017/201704gabtb04.pdf" target="_blank">white varieties</a>. I then compared these data to the data for the 2016 California grape crush provided by the American Association of Wine Economists (AAWE), for the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/208088912551256/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1958204904206306/?type=3&amp;theater" target="_blank">top reds</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/208088912551256/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1958204667539663/?type=3&amp;theater" target="_blank">top whites</a>.<br /><br />The data are shown in the two graphs, one for each type of grape. Within each graph, each point represents a single grape variety in California, showing its bearing acreage horizontally and its grape crush vertically. The lines on the graphs are best-fit linear regressions, illustrating the "average" production expected from each variety based on its acreage. In both cases the lines fit the data quite well, explaining c. 85% of the variation in the data.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tabMMlcZ_EU/Wmx67FtXYXI/AAAAAAAABJU/dkNXA7v3BmsuMuqICfRsuobW7G7EYmnUgCLcBGAs/s1600/Reds.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="California red grapes by area and crush" border="0" data-original-height="1054" data-original-width="1434" height="293" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tabMMlcZ_EU/Wmx67FtXYXI/AAAAAAAABJU/dkNXA7v3BmsuMuqICfRsuobW7G7EYmnUgCLcBGAs/s400/Reds.gif" title="California red grapes by area and crush" width="400" /></a></div><br />The first graph shows the data for the red varieties, where Cabernet sauvignon is by far the most widely planted grape variety, as well as the one most highly esteemed by winemakers. I therefore calculated the regression line, as shown, without including this variety, so that the line is fitted only to the other varieties — this then tells us what production to "expect" from Cabernet, based on the observed data for the other varieties. We can see that, as anticipated for the top variety, Cabernet sauvignon produces a much smaller crop than do the other varieties.<br /><br />Interestingly, both Zinfandel and Rubired (labeled on the graph) produce a <i><b>larger</b></i> grape quantity than we might expect from their acreage, whereas all of the other varieties are close to their expectation. This is notable because Zinfandel is the second most widely planted red grape, and it is usually considered to also be a premium variety. Other common premium varieties, such as Pinot Noir, Merlot and Syrah, produce crops at about their expected level in California.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xDNHOPuAeqs/WmyGfMmQo7I/AAAAAAAABJo/8pAoZyP1qOwCXd2z-qLwTVi9vfIgdVyCwCLcBGAs/s1600/Whites2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="California white grapes by area and crush" border="0" data-original-height="1053" data-original-width="1437" height="292" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xDNHOPuAeqs/WmyGfMmQo7I/AAAAAAAABJo/8pAoZyP1qOwCXd2z-qLwTVi9vfIgdVyCwCLcBGAs/s400/Whites2.gif" title="California white grapes by area and crush" width="400" /></a></div><br />A similar pattern is seen when we look at the white grape varieties, as shown in the second graph. Indeed, the regression lines in both graphs have almost the same slope (and intercept), indicating that red and white production both have the same relationship to area.<br /><br />Chardonnay is both the most widely planted white grape variety and the one most highly esteemed by winemakers. It is obvious from the graph that Chardonnay produces less quantity than is expected based on the other white varieties, as anticipated.<br /><br />Interestingly, three of the next four most widely planted white varieties (labeled on the graph) produce a <b><i>larger</i></b> grape quantity than we might expect from their acreage, whereas all of the other varieties are close to their expectation. This matches the pattern observed for the red varieties, where only the top variety has a reduced crop.<br /><br />Finally, the California Department of Food and Agriculture's <a href="https://www.wineindustryadvisor.com/2018/02/09/california-preliminary-grape-crush-report" target="_blank">California Grape Crush Report Preliminary 2017</a> allows us to look at the broad-scale economics of wine-grape production. The graph below shows the inflation-adjusted price per ton of wine grapes (vertically) versus the grape crush tonnage (horizontally). Each point represents the crop for one year from 1989 to 2016, inclusive.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6Rz0H1WcV8E/WoA3wHjgG8I/AAAAAAAABOc/9hHUtK0x4XcxvvuRs6tCUm9_82wmKZezgCLcBGAs/s1600/TonsAcres.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Price per ton of California grapes through 20 years" border="0" data-original-height="890" data-original-width="1030" height="276" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6Rz0H1WcV8E/WoA3wHjgG8I/AAAAAAAABOc/9hHUtK0x4XcxvvuRs6tCUm9_82wmKZezgCLcBGAs/s320/TonsAcres.gif" title="Price per ton of California grapes through 20 years" width="320" /></a></div><br />As can be seen, for the white-wine grapes their price is unrelated to the crop size — prices do not go up or down when the crop is large. On the other hand, for the red-wine grapes the price has a tendency (ie. with a few exceptions) to rise when the crop is large (correlation = 33%). In both cases, price is not related to scarcity, which is the important point. This implies that voluntarily restricting crop size does not affect the overall economics — the reduction in crop is likely to be compensated by increased price.<br /><br /><b>Conclusion</b><br /><br />So, Cabernet sauvignon and Chardonnay are the most widely planted and most esteemed red and white grape varieties, respectively, in California, and they both produce smaller crops than might be expected based on the production levels of other varieties. Furthermore, the situation differs for some of the other widely planted varieties, which produce larger crops than might be expected. This seems to match what is anticipated from the suggested relationship between quantity and quality — quantity is less when quality is at its very highest. For California grapes, less is more.David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-73521782700343189272018-02-05T00:30:00.000+01:002018-02-05T18:25:42.099+01:00Where does all of this wine come from and go to?A few weeks ago I commented on some of those countries that are importing expensive versus cheap wine (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-usa-imports-more-expensive-wines.html" target="_blank">The USA imports more expensive wines than anywhere else</a>). This leads us inevitably to consider, globally, where all the wines are coming from and going to.<br /><br />The data I will use to explore this come from <a href="https://comtrade.un.org/" target="_blank">Comtrade</a>, the United Nations International Trade Statistics Database. I accessed all of the data available for 2016 in the category: "Wine; still, in containers holding more than 2 litres" (code 22042). This may include pretty much anything (bulk or otherwise), except import/export of single bottles of wine, but excludes sparkling or fortified wines.<br /><br />I have plotted the results in the graph, which shows the total reported exports (in kg, which ≈ liters) horizontally, and the total reported imports vertically, with each point representing a single country (as recognized by the UN). Some of the countries are labeled, but most are not. Note that both axes have logarithmic scales, so that the most active countries are dealing with up to 1 million tons of wine annually.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MNZUfjM1XQI/WmxaFrygNkI/AAAAAAAABJA/PcuMTnsNCykXg-tphWsokvVYoCj7HU3cACLcBGAs/s1600/ImportExport.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Exports and imports of wine by country" border="0" data-original-height="1292" data-original-width="1409" height="431" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MNZUfjM1XQI/WmxaFrygNkI/AAAAAAAABJA/PcuMTnsNCykXg-tphWsokvVYoCj7HU3cACLcBGAs/s320/ImportExport.gif" title="Exports and imports of wine by country" width="470" /></a></div><br />For those countries above the line, their imports exceed their exports, while for those below the line, exports exceed imports. Obviously, most countries are net importers of wine. For the the USA, imports exceed exports by c. 50%.<br /><br />Those countries that are large net exporters of wine are well known, including Spain, Chile, Italy, Australia and South Africa. France is not in this list because, according to the data, it imports nearly three times as much wine as it exports. Portugal is another absentee, as it imports more than twice as much wine as it exports. I discussed these two issues in the previous post (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-usa-imports-more-expensive-wines.html" target="_blank">The USA imports more expensive wines than anywhere else</a>).<br /><br />The next group of net exporters includes (in order) Moldova, New Zealand, Macedonia, Myanmar (Burma) and Argentina, followed by Hungary, Israel, Morocco and Bulgaria. For Myanmar 96% of the wine goes to Suriname, and for Morocco 89% goes to France, which is why you have never tasted either of these wines. Macedonian wine principally goes to Germany (41%) and Serbia (34%), while Hungarian wine goes to Germany (30%) and Czechia (23%). The USA takes the largest share of the Israeli wine (46%), although France (11%) and the UK (10%) get their share, as well. Moldova sends its wines to mainly to Belarus (40%) and the Ukraine (19%), while Bulgarian wine goes to Poland (56%) and Sweden (25%).<br /><br />The biggest net importers are generally (but not always) those countries with large populations but with only a relatively small wine industry: Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China — that's right, France is the third biggest net importer of wine in the world! These countries are followed by (in order) Iceland, Sweden, Czechia, USA, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland.<br /><br />I have commented before that there seems to be a number of countries that are credited with exporting far more wine than they actually produce (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/10/bizarre-wine-data.html" target="_blank">Bizarre wine data</a>). In the Comtrade dataset, these countries include: Denmark, Finland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Thailand, Norway, Luxembourg, Singapore, Hong Kong and Iceland. Normally, I would conclude that these data involve re-exports of imported wine; however, "re-export" is officially a separate category of data in the Comtrade database. It therefore seems to me that the data might not be organized as well as we would like.David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-52545177598196019482018-01-29T00:30:00.000+01:002018-01-29T00:30:08.421+01:00What do wine glasses and hamburgers have in common?Short answer: their sizes have increased a lot during the past 30 years.<br /><br />This is of importance because obesity is now considered to be an epidemic in many countries, particularly the USA. Indeed, for more than 20 years obesity has been seen as "the most challenging public health problem that we have faced" (Ref. 1). One of the things that is obviously associated with obesity is increasing consumption of energy-rich food; and one of the things implicated in increased consumption is the size of the portions being eaten — increased portions lead to increased energy intake, and if the energy is not immediately used then the person will put on weight.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qUcMC5rk0-Y/WmcU1bJIOZI/AAAAAAAABHk/8dfRDy1vc0oxfD5XWKhBivd5xR6lWs3SACLcBGAs/s1600/rates-trends-overview-2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Obesity in the USA, from the Obesity Rates &amp; Trends Overview web site" border="0" data-original-height="212" data-original-width="348" height="121" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qUcMC5rk0-Y/WmcU1bJIOZI/AAAAAAAABHk/8dfRDy1vc0oxfD5XWKhBivd5xR6lWs3SACLcBGAs/s200/rates-trends-overview-2014.png" title="Obesity in the USA, from the Obesity Rates &amp; Trends Overview web site" width="200" /></a></div><br />The relationship between obesity and the size of portions is a complex issue, which I will not go into here. However, for those of you who are interested, there are a number of recent literature reviews (Refs 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7). The experimental consensus is that people consistently consume more food and drink when offered larger-sized portions, packages or tableware than when offered smaller-sized versions.<br /><br />What is of particular interest for this blog post is that health professionals have been collecting data about increasing portion sizes over the years, and I thought that we might look at some of the data, and their consequences. Portion size is usually reported to be largest in the USA, and steadily increasing [Refs 8, 9], although data from Europe show similar trends — eg. Denmark (Ref. 10), the Netherlands (Ref. 11).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TBSe00Oq7B8/Wmcsweb3FaI/AAAAAAAABIY/OKkVPBhHfmAT90bp8YfdXaAAbxcQ2w2jACLcBGAs/s1600/super-sized-dilemma.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="135" data-original-width="230" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TBSe00Oq7B8/Wmcsweb3FaI/AAAAAAAABIY/OKkVPBhHfmAT90bp8YfdXaAAbxcQ2w2jACLcBGAs/s1600/super-sized-dilemma.jpg" /></a></div><br /><b>Increased portion sizes</b><br /><br />People have now realized that there are two ways that increased portions have been happening, the first of which is related to hamburgers and the second of which is related to wine glasses. That is, food is often served as a discrete unit (Ref. 12), either as a single object (eg. a hamburger or a packet of crisps) or as a single serving (eg. a wine glass or a plate / bowl). Both units have been increasing in recent decades.<br /><br />For hamburgers, Ref. 13 found that a single McDonald's hamburger weighed 1.6 oz when first introduced in 1955 but in 2002 varied in weight from 1.6-8.0 oz, Burger King's weighed 3.9 oz in 1954 but 4.4-12.6 oz in 2002, and Howard Johnson's weighed 3.5 oz in the 1970s and 5.0-8.0 oz in 2002. These are hardly small increases.<br /><br />This is part of a general trend, in which the sizes of food products sold as a single package have increased through time. The next graph, from Ref. 14, shows the time when a larger unit size was introduced (ie. larger than when the product was first marketed) for a total of 181 different food products in the USA. The increase in portions has been rapid since 1980.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SogAUBOkcqE/WmZpoaZD2HI/AAAAAAAABG8/dVy9fGA94Pslfspt6f-aVLTVAa2rhAvuACLcBGAs/s1600/Young.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Year in which increase in food portion size was first recorded" border="0" data-original-height="494" data-original-width="674" height="233" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SogAUBOkcqE/WmZpoaZD2HI/AAAAAAAABG8/dVy9fGA94Pslfspt6f-aVLTVAa2rhAvuACLcBGAs/s320/Young.gif" title="Year in which increase in food portion size was first recorded" width="320" /></a></div><br />Moving on to the other category, products sold "loose" (rather than in a fixed package size), the next graph, from Ref. 15, shows the capacity of wine glasses available in England over the past 3 centuries. Once again, the increase has been rapid since 1980.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-v96SjPskuRE/WmZr2TMlZEI/AAAAAAAABHI/4IIaedQMn0QB8z0DXR72KVCGi6AeaQ6eACLcBGAs/s1600/Zupan.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Increase in English wine-glass sizes over three centuries" border="0" data-original-height="567" data-original-width="1012" height="283" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-v96SjPskuRE/WmZr2TMlZEI/AAAAAAAABHI/4IIaedQMn0QB8z0DXR72KVCGi6AeaQ6eACLcBGAs/s400/Zupan.gif" title="Increase in English wine-glass sizes over three centuries" width="506" /></a></div><br />This is also part of a general trend, in which the sizes of other dinnerware have also increased through time. For example, Ref. 16 shows a similar graph of increasing size of dinner plates in the USA over the past century.<br /><br /><b>Studies of drink consumption</b><br /><br />This raises the obvious question of whether increased sizes of glasses has any affect on the amount of alcohol consumed. The general consensus seems to be "yes". Here, I will briefly discuss a few recent experimental studies about the wine glasses, tumblers, etc into which drinks are poured in licensed premises (restaurants and bars), rather than at home.<br /><br />Several years ago, the authors of Ref. 17 visited a number of bars in California, to check whether the wines, mixed drinks and straight drinks varied in alcohol level based on the size or shape of the glass it was served in (due to variation in the bartender pouring). They concluded that: “Straight shots and mixed drinks served in the relatively large pint glass ... were found to contain more alcohol than drinks served in a short wide glass. No other significant differences were found between glass types.” That is, in this situation&nbsp;<i>wine glass</i> size and shape made no difference.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XoQ7ErmGwi8/WmcTSReR0gI/AAAAAAAABHY/kygxcZAoWLg2b-ZupPWlJNw-trpqGhyLQCLcBGAs/s1600/Zupan2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The same amount of wine in glasses of two different sizes" border="0" data-original-height="479" data-original-width="467" height="320" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XoQ7ErmGwi8/WmcTSReR0gI/AAAAAAAABHY/kygxcZAoWLg2b-ZupPWlJNw-trpqGhyLQCLcBGAs/s320/Zupan2.gif" title="The same amount of wine in glasses of two different sizes" width="311" /></a></div><br />Later, the authors of Refs 18 and 19 did similar experiments for wine glasses at three bar / restaurants in England. However, in this case the portion of wine served was identical in all cases — the only thing that varied was the size of the wine glass (see the picture above). They found that: “Daily wine volume purchased was [10%] higher when sold in larger compared to standard-sized glasses. This effect seemed principally driven by sales in the bar area ... Findings were inconclusive as to whether sales were different with smaller vs. standard-sized glasses.”<br /><br />So, serving people in over-sized glasses led them to purchase more glasses of wine. It is worth looking at how this effect is assumed to work. The Delboeuf Illusion is usually considered to be the prime force, as shown in the next picture (from Ref. 16) — the plate on the left looks like it has less food, even though the two amounts are identical. The same is true of the two wine glasses shown above — if it looks like you are drinking less per glass, then you buy more glasses.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Tckux1j1OT0/WmcU1leaPGI/AAAAAAAABHo/w-ygVQNlyE00i8VYZDI9BG1GXKCq94BaACEwYBhgL/s1600/Ittersum.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The Delboeuf Illusion as applied to dinner plates" border="0" data-original-height="252" data-original-width="424" height="187" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Tckux1j1OT0/WmcU1leaPGI/AAAAAAAABHo/w-ygVQNlyE00i8VYZDI9BG1GXKCq94BaACEwYBhgL/s320/Ittersum.gif" title="The Delboeuf Illusion as applied to dinner plates" width="320" /></a></div><br />This idea was experimentally tested by the authors of Ref. 20, who asked their participants to fill a second glass with the same amount of wine as was present in the first (standard) glass — the second glass was either wider or taller or both, compared to the reference. The authors concluded that: “Participants under-filled the wider glass relative to the reference glass and and over-filled the larger glass relative to the reference glass. These results are broadly consistent with people using the relative fullness of glasses to judge volume, and suggest both the shape and capacity of wine glasses may influence perceived volume.” A similar conclusion was reached by the authors of a similar but much earlier study (Ref. 21).<br /><br />However, these same authors (Ref. 22) also tested a different idea in the laboratory, that the effect might be produced by differences in drinking behavior — drinking rate, sip number and sip duration might be increased for larger glasses. Sadly, they found that: “Wine drunk from the larger, compared with the smaller glass, was consumed more slowly and with shorter sip duration, counter to the hypothesised direction of effect.” This might be due to the participants drinking alone in a laboratory rather than socially in a bar / restaurant.<br /><br />However, for lager consumed from straight-sided versus curved beer glasses, the authors of Ref. 23 found that: “Participants were 60% slower to consume the alcoholic beverage from a straight glass compared to a curved glass. This effect ... was not observed for a non-alcoholic beverage. Participants also misjudged the half-way point of a curved glass to a greater degree than that of a straight glass.” So, glass shape mattered.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SZCe9eknA7E/Wmcmqdx56GI/AAAAAAAABH8/QGikgexgZnY7LuBXQGQ_ye39bsLsJpv9ACLcBGAs/s1600/vir_email_crop.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="100" data-original-width="578" height="34" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SZCe9eknA7E/Wmcmqdx56GI/AAAAAAAABH8/QGikgexgZnY7LuBXQGQ_ye39bsLsJpv9ACLcBGAs/s200/vir_email_crop.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br /><b>Marketing</b><br /><br />This inevitably leads us to consider the affect that of all of this research might have on marketing. Because the actual food and drinks are usually only a small percentage of the cost of eating and drinking, giving customers a larger portion is a strategy that might increase total sales. This leads to the widespread practice of “super-sizing” — giving customers a lot more food (and calories) for only a small additional cost. This seems to be the main motivation for sellers increasing their food portions, as described above.<br /><br />People seem to purchase larger portion sizes than they actually need (in terms of energy), for two main reasons (Ref. 2): <br /><ul><li>"value for money" — larger portions are attractive because they offer more value for money, ie. a lower price per unit;</li><li>"portion distortion" — larger portions can be perceived as an appropriate amount to consume on a single occasion, due to continuous exposure to larger food portion sizes.</li></ul>These two ideas combine, because people tend to "clean their plate" when given a particular portion of food — they consume what they are served, no matter how much (or little) it is.<br /><br />For alcoholic beverages, marketing has been discussed by Ref. 24, particularly with regard to “strategies aimed at recruiting new young customers, increasing consumption and nudging drinkers towards stronger products ... Particular attention is paid to the size of the glass and how this can best be manipulated to increase sales.”<br /><br />The authors quote a number of UK trade publications encouraging the use of larger glasses:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">Since 1995, the legally permitted measure sizes for wine by the glass in the UK have been 125 ml, 175 ml and multiples thereof ... In 1996, a spokesman from Carlsberg-Tetley brands urged licensees to call 175 ml a “standard” glass and 125 ml “small” ... Similarly, in 2001, licensees were advised that ‘The basic step is to move from 125 ml glasses to 175 ml ... With 175 ml as the standard and 250 ml as the large size, pubs increase both volumes and profits’ ... A 2004 article declares that small glasses ‘give the impression that the pub doesn’t take wine seriously,’ and that ‘getting customers to “go large” in glass size not only improves the experience, it’s also a tremendously efficient way of cranking up profit.’</blockquote>So, it does seem that the drinks business is actively involved in the current obesity epidemic.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-V7Wd53ttFSw/WmcozObAVkI/AAAAAAAABII/XAFERP7ZCiUDumhUdrDguS4bKZpRPhzogCLcBGAs/s1600/qp3yzyf2-1399002871.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="1009" height="100" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-V7Wd53ttFSw/WmcozObAVkI/AAAAAAAABII/XAFERP7ZCiUDumhUdrDguS4bKZpRPhzogCLcBGAs/s200/qp3yzyf2-1399002871.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br /><b>Postscript</b><br /><br />There are "standard portions" described for many foods, usually based on daily diet requirements or other health considerations. For example, in the USA these standards are provided by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). These portions are often listed as "standard servings" on packaged food.<br /><br />Although a "standard drink" is defined in terms of the amount of alcohol it contains, most people have little idea about what constitutes a standard drink in terms of volume, irrespective of whether it refers to wine, beer or spirits. In the experiment conducted by the authors of Ref. 25, almost all of the participants poured a drink that was too large.<br /><br />Unfortunately, the so-called “standard drink” can vary considerably among countries. For example, in the USA a standard drink contains 14 g (0.6 oz) of ethanol, which would be 150 mL (5 fl. oz) of 12% ABV wine. However, in Australia, the standard drink contains only 10 g of ethanol, which is equivalent to 105 mL of wine. So, a bottle of 12% wine in the USA is considered to contain 5 standard drinks but in Australia it contains 7 such drinks. Obviously, with increased alcohol strengths of wine in recent years there are even more standard drinks per bottle these days!<br /><br /><b>Literature references</b><br /><br />[1] Barbara J Rolls (2003) The supersizing of america: portion size and the obesity epidemic. <i>Nutrition Today</i> 38: 42-53.<br /><br />[2] Ingrid HM Steenhuis, Willemijn M Vermeer (2009) Portion size: review and framework for interventions. <i>International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition &amp; Physical Activity</i> 6: 58.<br /><br />[3] M Barbara E Livingstone, L Kirsty Pourshahidi (2014) Portion size and obesity. <i>Advances in Nutrition</i> 5: 829-834.<br /><br />[4] E Robinson, S Nolan, C Tudur-Smith, EJ Boyland, JA Harrold, CA Hardman, JCG Halford (2014) Will smaller plates lead to smaller waists? A systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect that experimental manipulation of dishware size has on energy consumption. <i>Obesity Reviews</i> 15: 812-821.<br /><br />[5] David Benton (2015) Portion size: what we know and what we need to know. <i>Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition</i> 55: 988-1004.<br /><br />[6] Gareth J Hollands, Ian Shemilt, Theresa M Marteau, Susan A Jebb, Hannah B Lewis, Yinghui Wei, Julian Higgins, David Ogilvie (2015) Portion, package or tableware size for changing selection and consumption of food, alcohol and tobacco. <i>Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews</i> 9: CD011045.<br /><br />[7] C Peter Herman, Janet Polivy, Lenny R Vartanian, Patricia Pliner (2016) Are large portions responsible for the obesity epidemic? <i>Physiology &amp; Behavior</i> 156 177-181.<br /><br />[8] Samara Joy Nielsen, Barry M. Popkin (2003) Patterns and trends in food portion sizes, 1977-1998. <i>Journal of the American Medical Association</i> 289: 450-453.<br /><br />[9] Helen Smiciklas-Wright, Diane C Mitchell, Sharon J Mickle, Joseph D Goldman, Annetta Cook (2003) Food commonly eaten in the United States, 1989-1991 and 1994-1996: are the portion sizes changing? <i>Journal of the American Dietetic Association</i> 103: 41-47.<br /><br />[10] Jeppe Matthiessen, Sisse Fagt, Anja Biltoft-Jensen, Anne Marie Beck, Lars Ovesen (2003) Size makes a difference. <i>Public Health Nutrition</i> 6: 65-72.<br /><br />[11] Ingrid HM Steenhuis , Franca H Leeuwis, Willemijn M Vermeer (2010) Small, medium, large or supersize: trends in food portion sizes in The Netherlands.<i> Public Health Nutrition</i> 13: 852-857.<br /><br />[12] Andrew B Geier, Paul Rozin, Gheorghe Doros (2006) Unit bias: a new heuristic that helps explain the effect of portion size on food intake. <i>Psychological Science</i> 17: 521-525.<br /><br />[13] Lisa R Young, Marion Nestle (2003) Expanding portion sizes in the US marketplace: implications for nutrition counseling. <i>Journal of the American Dietetic Association</i> 103: 231-234.<br /><br />[14] Lisa R Young, Marion Nestle (2002) The contribution of expanding portion sizes to the US obesity epidemic. <i>American Journal of Public Health</i> 92: 246-249.<br /><br />[15] Zorana Zupan, Alexandra Evans, Dominique-Laurent Couturier, Theresa M Marteau (2017) Wine glass size in England from 1700 to 2017: a measure of our time. <i>British Medical Journal</i> 359: j5623.<br /><br />[16] Koert Van Ittersum, Brian Wansink (2012) Plate size and color suggestibility: the Delboeuf Illusion’s bias on serving and eating behavior. <i>Journal of Consumer Research</i> 39: 215-228.<br /><br />[17] William C Kerr, Deidre Patterson, Mary A Koenen, Thomas K Greenfield (2009) Large drinks are no mistake: glass size, not shape, affects alcoholic beverage drink pours. <i>Drug and Alcohol Review</i> 28: 360-365.<br /><br />[18] Rachel Pechey, Dominique-Laurent Couturier, Gareth J Hollands, Eleni Mantzari, Marcus R. Munafò, Theresa M Marteau (2016) Does wine glass size influence sales for on-site consumption? A multiple treatment reversal design. <i>BMC Public Health</i> 16: 390.<br /><br />[19] Rachel Pechey, Dominique‐Laurent Couturier, Gareth J Hollands, Eleni Mantzari, Zorana Zupan, Theresa M Marteau (2017) Wine glass size and wine sales: a replication study in two bars. <i>BMC Research Notes</i> 10: 287.<br /><br />[20] Rachel Pechey, Angela S Attwood, Dominique‐Laurent Couturier, Marcus R Munafò, Nicholas E Scott-Samuel, Andy Woods, Theresa M Marteau (2015) Does glass size and shape influence judgements of the volume of wine? <i>PLoS One</i> 10: e0144536.<br /><br />[21] Brian Wansink, John S Dyson, Koert van Ittersum (2005) Shape of glass and amount of alcohol poured: comparative study of effect of practice and concentration. <i>British Medical Journal</i> 331: 1512.<br /><br /><br /><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">[22] Zorana Zupan, Rachel Pechey, Dominique‐Laurent Couturier, Gareth J Hollands, Theresa M Marteau (2017) Micro-drinking behaviours and consumption of wine in different wine glass sizes: a laboratory study.&nbsp;<i>BMC Psychology</i>&nbsp;5: 17.</div><div><br /></div><br />[23] Angela S Attwood, Nicholas E Scott-Samuel, George Stothart, Marcus R Munafò (2012) Glass shape influences consumption rate for alcoholic beverages. <i>PLoS One</i> 7: e43007.<br /><br />[24] Martine Stead, Kathryn Angus, Laura Macdonald, Linda Bauld (2014) Looking into the glass: glassware as an alcohol marketing tool, and the implications for policy. <i>Alcohol &amp; Alcoholism</i> 49: 317-320.<br /><br />[25] Aaron M White, Courtney L Kraus, Lindsey A McCracken, H Scott Swartzwelder (2003) Do college students drink more than they think? Use of a free-pour paradigm to determine how college students define standard drinks. <i>Alcoholism: Clinical &amp; Experimental Research</i> 27: 1750-1756.<br /><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-17718999786776197422018-01-22T00:30:00.000+01:002018-01-22T00:30:08.625+01:00Let the author bewareThis is just a short note about something that I encountered during the past year.<br /><br />Academic researchers often repeat very similar experimental work under different circumstances, often several years apart. They then then publish these works separately. When writing the later manuscripts, it is quite common to copy the description of the experiment from the earlier manuscripts. After all, to do otherwise would be to re-invent the wheel — if you got the description right the first time then you cannot do better by re-writing it.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RHhSvNjGHXc/WOjWhyImRrI/AAAAAAAAAzw/ibXuzKrLRfUTyddwuDLGpHdqZ1dlcyBzwCLcB/s1600/LittleMen51.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RHhSvNjGHXc/WOjWhyImRrI/AAAAAAAAAzw/ibXuzKrLRfUTyddwuDLGpHdqZ1dlcyBzwCLcB/s1600/LittleMen51.gif" /></a></div><br />However, one does have to remember to change the description of those parts that differ between the experiments. The nightmare that we authors have is that we will forget to do this!<br /><br />These are the titles of two papers by the same authors, which were published in the same economics journal five years apart, but which I happened to read on the same day:<br /><ul><li>What explains Bordeaux wine prices? (2004)</li><li>Estimation of a hedonic price equation for Alsace, Beaujolais and Provence wines. (2009)</li></ul>The data collection and analysis were the same in both cases, and so the published descriptions are almost identical. Unfortunately, they are a bit <b><i>too</i></b> similar.<br /><br /><u>Paper 1</u>:<br />"The experts were then asked to give marks for the quality of the wine and an indication of the extent to which it can be laid down (for red and Sauternes wines only)."<br /><u>Paper 2</u>:<br />"The experts were then asked to give notes for the quality of the wine and an indication of the extent to which it can be laid down (for red and Sauternes wines only)."<br /><br />The reference to Sauternes makes sense when you are writing about Bordeaux wines, as in Paper 1; but it does seem out of place in a paper about wines from Alsace, Beaujolais or Provence, as in Paper 2.<br /><br />Almost all authors will have done this at some time — the trick is to catch the error <i><b>before</b></i> anyone else does.<br /><br />Caveat auctor!<br /><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-83694567562811369552018-01-15T00:30:00.001+01:002018-01-15T23:45:15.063+01:00Recovery from vineyard firesLast October there were, as many of you know, a few unexpectedly large fires in some parts of California. Indeed, the entire 2017 fire season was worse than usual (see <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_California_wildfires" target="_blank">2017 California wildfires</a>); and <a href="https://www.axios.com/fires-rage-with-no-regard-for-season-1513206927-2f9644ce-e9b0-4225-8737-d2e3c73f66d8.html" target="_blank">Wildfires are burning longer and hotter each year</a>). Naturally, this attracted a lot of media attention, in the "wine and vine" media as much as anywhere else, since the fires occurred in a well-known vineyard area.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q2l0SOTl0UY/WllJmqjOpyI/AAAAAAAABGQ/4S31BmDUpJIK7fVHMdYCqsl_FshrqhnkACLcBGAs/s1600/ntjispwjjooteahwv7pp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="370" data-original-width="694" height="212" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q2l0SOTl0UY/WllJmqjOpyI/AAAAAAAABGQ/4S31BmDUpJIK7fVHMdYCqsl_FshrqhnkACLcBGAs/s400/ntjispwjjooteahwv7pp.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />This seemed to distract attention in the USA away from the equally bad 2017 fires in Portugal (although see <i>Decanter</i>'s report <a href="http://www.decanter.com/wine-news/deadly-fires-hit-wines-regions-in-spain-and-portugal-378345/">Deadly fires hit wine regions in Spain and Portugal</a>). There were two lots of fires, actually. The first one was a firestorm in June in the Pedrógão Grande area of central Portugal — at least 65 deaths and 204 injuries, followed by three days of national mourning (see <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2017_Portugal_wildfires" target="_blank">June 2017 Portugal wildfires</a>).<br /><br />The October fires, on the other hand, involved a series of several thousand fires spread throughout much of northern Portugal and north-Western Spain (see <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2017_Iberian_wildfires" target="_blank">October 2017 Iberian wildfires</a>) — at least 45 deaths in Portugal and dozens of injuries.<br /><br />I am not sure that any vineyards were directly affected by the June fires, but some of the October fires had their effect, especially in the Dão viticultural region of northern Portugal. One of the purposes of this blog post is to draw your attention to a Portugese winery that is adopting an innovative way of recovering from their October fire.<br /><br />This is <a href="http://www.casademouraz.com/" target="_blank">Casa de Mouraz</a>, a pioneering organic/biodynamic winery near Tondela, in the south-western part of the Dão region. It is a family business, run by husband and wife team António Lopes Ribeiro and Sara Dionísio. Sarah Ahmed provides a brief introduction to the winery and its wines (<a href="http://thewinedetective.co.uk/blog/portugal/catching-organic-wines-casa-de-mouraz-alr" target="_blank">Catching up with the organic wines of Casa de Mouraz</a>). Some of you may have encountered their wines, as reportedly 98% of the production is exported.<br /><br />Casa de Mouraz was badly affected by a fire on October 15, which burnt 50% of the vineyards, damaged some of the equipment, and destroyed part of their wine store and its contents. Quinta dos Roques, further east, was another winery that was severely affected on the same day (see <a href="http://thewinedetective.co.uk/blog/dao-rising-ashes" target="_blank">Rising from the ashes, the Dão’s phoenix 2017 vintage</a>).<br /><br />The strategy for Casa de Mouraz to bounce back has been to start an Indiegogo campaign — <a href="https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/casa-de-mouraz-wines-2-0-rising-from-the-ashes#/" target="_blank">Casa de Mouraz wines 2.0 - Rising from the ashes</a>. They are seeking €100,000 to get started on their long-term plan, which will ultimately cost an estimated €600,000. You can read about their plans (and the rewards for donors) on the campaign page.<br /><br />You could do a lot worse than support this Indiegogo campaign. [Note: the October fires occurred after the Dão grape harvest, which was the earliest in memory, so the wines will not be affected.]<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ELatPhHkWB8/WloeLIJqX4I/AAAAAAAABGs/bFuFglFwXuQdsECMNz2D65qR5v5V3kv3QCLcBGAs/s1600/s3.reutersmedia.net.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="940" height="266" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ELatPhHkWB8/WloeLIJqX4I/AAAAAAAABGs/bFuFglFwXuQdsECMNz2D65qR5v5V3kv3QCLcBGAs/s400/s3.reutersmedia.net.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><b>Fires and viticulture</b><br /><br />The ultimate cause of the Portugese fires is a simple one, and it is the same as the one in California — eucalypts and pines don't mix. Well, they do, actually, but in an extremely volatile manner when the weather gets warm. Trust me — I grew up in the homeland of the eucalypts, so I know exactly what they can do when they get a bit hot and dry. Indeed, the affect of fire on native plants is what I used to study as a scientist when I lived in Australia; so I have a personal as well as professional interest in this topic.<br /><br />Eucalypts occur near many vineyard areas. From their native Australia, they were transplanted during the 1800s to all continents except Antarctica, into almost all climates where they will grow.&nbsp;Indeed, it's a long time since I traveled anywhere in the world without seeing a eucalypt or two.&nbsp;People thought that they "would cure malaria, solve the drainage problems that defeated Roman emperors, fill the Sahara with forest, and reveal the presence of gold" (Ashley Hay. 2002.&nbsp;<i>Gum: the Story of Eucalypts and their Champions</i>).<br /><br />As a consequence, in many places eucalyts have actually replaced the native shrublands and woodlands. They are used as a valuable source of hardwood in areas that either lack native hardwood species, or where such species have been removed. They can be used as a cash crop, for example for paper production, building timber, railway sleepers, telegraph poles, etc.<br /><br />The main point is that the eucalypts can deal with fires rather easily. After fires, the Australian media always used to ask: "when will the burned forest come back?"; and the botanists always tried to patiently explain that the native plants hadn't gone anywhere — they were still there, still alive, and ready to regrow as soon as the rains came. Fire is a natural part of their life.<br /><br />But it isn't a natural part of most agricultural systems, least of all vineyards. Therefore, while it is obviously important for the affected agricultural areas to recover from the effects of the 2017 fires, it seems to me to be equally important to think about the future, in terms of prevention. We need to be proactive not just reactive.<br /><br />Fires in what are called Mediterranean-type climates (hot dry summers and mild wet winters) are to be expected — they cannot be avoided, for basic climatic reasons. Nor can fires be excluded from areas with natural Mediterranean-type ecosystems — fire is a normal part of such systems. Indeed, in those parts of Europe, North America, South America, Australia and South Africa that have such ecosystems (see the map), the plants naturally take it in their stride.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-13kGWiuWpZ0/WllK7vSXG6I/AAAAAAAABGc/6CqhIiWxUW0hUm_FK-2z_UXMRsxmF6pZACLcBGAs/s1600/medclimateregions.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="397" data-original-width="792" height="200" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-13kGWiuWpZ0/WllK7vSXG6I/AAAAAAAABGc/6CqhIiWxUW0hUm_FK-2z_UXMRsxmF6pZACLcBGAs/s400/medclimateregions.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />You may not have realized it before, but the map shows you that much of the world's fine-wine viticulture actually occurs in areas with Mediterranean-type ecosystems. The natural vegetation of these ecosystems are shrublands with small trees, variously referred to as heaths, maquis (France), macchia (Italy), matorral (Spain, Chile), chaparral (California), kwongan (south-west Australia) and fynbos (South Africa). This native vegetation is highly flammable, and most of the indigenous shrubs (and trees, when they occur) actually <b>require</b> fire as part of their life-cycle.<br /><br />So, in all of these cases avoidance of fires cannot be our agricultural management strategy, if we care about biodiversity, because recurrent fires are a natural component of that biodiversity. And, after all, isn't the whole point of biodynamic agriculture to care about biodiversity, while producing high-quality agricultural products?<br /><br />That leaves us with survival as our basic strategy, just as it is for the native plants and animals, which re-emerge with aplomb after a fire. Vineyards and wineries in fire-prone environments thus need to be able to withstand recurrent fires. We don't know when or where the fires will occur, but we do know that they will eventually come in all Mediterranean-type ecosystems, whether they are deliberately lit or not. When they do come, the vineyards and wineries must be ready — not just as single entities but as a group.<br /><br />Hoping to escape fires is not a viable strategy any longer.&nbsp;It seems to me that not much thought has yet been given to this topic. There are many possible components of a such a strategy, including winery design and vineyard management, which I will not go into here.<br /><br />However, perhaps the deepest thought needs to be given to the necessity of having non-native trees such as eucalypts inter-mixed with vineyards. The natural vegetation of Mediterranean-type ecosystems is flammable on its own, and yet into this environment we have actually introduced eucalypts, the most flammable trees on earth. It seems to be the height of silliness to have them in fire-prone areas containing vineyards. All this does is make a potentially bad situation infinitely worse.<br /><br />Vineyards are usually capable of withstanding relatively mild fires (see <a href="http://www.sfchronicle.com/wine/article/Months-after-Wine-Country-fires-damaged-12474309.php" target="_blank">Months after Wine Country fires, damaged vineyards face uncertainty</a>), but they cannot survive a severe eucalypt-propagated wildfire. We cannot keep relying on insurance policies and crowd funding for the long-term fire management of the affected viticultural areas.<br /><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-73418004946371884432018-01-08T00:30:00.000+01:002018-01-08T00:30:07.039+01:00Bordeaux versus cult California cabernetsBack in 2001 <a href="https://www.jancisrobinson.com/articles/california-cult-cabernets-ridge-monte-bello-is-the-steal" target="_blank">Jancis Robinson</a> wrote:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">For 200 years Bordeaux was the red wine capital of the world, and its wine styles and prices set the standards for the international wine market. But in the last 10 years ... California [has] created its own wine kingdom with a quite different aristocracy and legislature.</blockquote><blockquote class="tr_bq">The wines themselves may be made from the same Cabernet and Merlot grapes as red Bordeaux but they taste quite different ... Most of these California cult Cabernets carry names which were unknown 10, sometimes 5 years ago. But they are made in such small quantities ... that prices have overtaken those of Europe's established classics.</blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IdDkNB47jnQ/WkJw-aTU1yI/AAAAAAAABF8/lmTYUjB3-I022nrG_eMgv2LaYPm2Bf1TQCLcBGAs/s1600/PetrusEagle.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="331" data-original-width="473" height="222" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IdDkNB47jnQ/WkJw-aTU1yI/AAAAAAAABF8/lmTYUjB3-I022nrG_eMgv2LaYPm2Bf1TQCLcBGAs/s320/PetrusEagle.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Nothing much has changed since then — compared to the top Bordeaux wines, the California cult wines still taste different and they still cost more money. However, an obvious question to ask is: does the difference in wine style result in different quality scores? Alternatively: are the higher prices reflected in higher scores?<br /><br />To answer this, we can ask Jancis Robinson herself. In her article, she provides "an extraordinary assessment of the cult wines that cost more than Bordeaux's first growths", by tasting and scoring 34 wines of "seven of California's best Cabernets old and new" — 4-6 wines per winery, covering the 1990-1997 vintages.<br /><br />For comparison, I have collated her scores for seven top Bordeaux producers, covering the same vintages. This is actually a bit tricky, because the 1991-1994 vintages were poor, and most chateaux have no Robinson scores for these years. However, I managed to get scores for each chateau for 1989-1990 and 1995-1997 — I chose the score that was dated closest to a 2001 tasting (which may somewhat disadvantage the Bordeaux wine style).<br /><br />The 14 wines being compared are (alphabetically):<br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td align="right" style="white-space: nowrap;" valign="top"><b>California&nbsp;</b><br />Araujo<i>&nbsp;</i><br />Caymus Special Selection<i>&nbsp;</i><br />Dalla Valle Maya<i>&nbsp;</i><br />Harlan Estate<i>&nbsp;</i><br />Ridge Monte Bello<i>&nbsp;</i><br />Screaming Eagle<i>&nbsp;</i><br />Stag's Leap Wine Cellars Cask 23&nbsp; </td><td align="left" style="white-space: nowrap;" valign="top"><b>&nbsp;Bordeaux</b><br />&nbsp;Château Cheval Blanc<br />&nbsp;Château Haut Brion<br />&nbsp;Château Lafite Rothschild<br />&nbsp;Château Latour<br />&nbsp;Château Margaux<br />&nbsp;Château Mouton Rothschild<br />&nbsp;Petrus </td></tr></tbody></table><br />Robinson uses a 20-point scale, including half points. Her scores for the 69 wines are shown in the graph, where each dot represents one wine score. The 34 scores for the California wines are grouped on the left, and the 35 scores for the Bordeaux wines are on the right.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BYrJHDyCjJg/WkJaxvVUarI/AAAAAAAABFc/eF7UMAo_zvcfTPXahgNtwu6j9m5Ixw29gCLcBGAs/s1600/Dit.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="California versus Bordeaux cabernet wine-quality scores" border="0" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="473" height="284" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BYrJHDyCjJg/WkJaxvVUarI/AAAAAAAABFc/eF7UMAo_zvcfTPXahgNtwu6j9m5Ixw29gCLcBGAs/s400/Dit.gif" title="California versus Bordeaux cabernet wine-quality scores" width="315" /></a></div><br />Obviously, there is not much difference in the scores between the two wine groups, although there are more scores of 17.5 for the California wines versus 18.5 for the Bordeaux wines. However, a statistical analysis (2-factor nested analysis of variance) shows that this difference is no more than would be expected by chance. Indeed, this analysis shows that 71% of the variation in quality scores is actually due to vintage differences, with a further 27% being due to differences between the individual wineries, and only 2% of the variation attributable to California versus Bordeaux.<br /><br />Most of the wineries have average quality scores within a fairly narrow range, with nine of them scoring averages of 17 to 18. However, the two Left Bank Bordeaux wineries have an average score of 18.3 (Cheval Blanc) and 18.6 (Petrus), and California's Screaming Eagle is at the top with 18.9. At the other end are two of the other California wineries: Dalla Valle Maya (average 16.2) and Harlan Estate (16.9).<br /><br />So, it seems that, at least as far as Jancis Robinson is concerned, the fact that the California wines are "exuberantly fruity and ready to enjoy at what a European might regard as an almost obscenely young age" does not affect their standing in the points-scoring race.&nbsp;This means that their extra price is not determined by any extra quality. Presumably, the price is set, instead, by their relative scarcity — the cult California wines have hundreds of cases produced per vintage, whereas the Bordeaux wines generally have thousands of cases produced each year, and in some instances tens of thousands.<br /><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-87998173909295281492018-01-01T00:30:00.000+01:002018-01-01T00:30:09.661+01:00The USA imports more expensive wines than anywhere elseBest wishes to everyone for the new year.<br /><br />This is a season when many people take a drink or two, irrespective of whether they do so at other times of the year. However, many countries make either no wine or very little wine, in which case they need to import whatever wine their people require. Other countries make only certain types of wine (often for climatic reasons), and they need to import the remainder. Alternatively, some very populous countries currently have almost no requirements at all for wine, either home-grown or imported, at least relative to their population size, including India, Indonesia and Pakistan.<br /><br />However, there is also one wine-producing country that nevertheless still imports a lot of wine: the United States of America. The data that illustrate this come from Comtrade, the United Nations International Trade Statistics Database, as reported on a couple of American Association of Wine Economists' Facebook pages (<a href="https://www.facebook.com/208088912551256/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1948357748524355/?type=3&amp;theater" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/208088912551256/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1949614471732016/?type=3&amp;theater" target="_blank">here</a>).<br /><br />The data are shown in the first graph below, where each point represents one of the 20 countries that imported the greatest volumes of wine during 2016. The horizontal axis is the volume imported (in thousands of tons) and the vertical axis is the average price per liter in US dollars. I have labeled the four countries that imported the greatest volume, as well as the four that paid the highest average price. As you can see, only the USA is in both of these top-four groups.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-N9kSFGAfq3I/WhADbSzUYwI/AAAAAAAABCo/klT7zJTN820OMqEYiiPGoPn3RFhqkQ80wCLcBGAs/s1600/Graph1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The 20 largest wine-importing countries by volume" border="0" data-original-height="1108" data-original-width="1243" height="356" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-N9kSFGAfq3I/WhADbSzUYwI/AAAAAAAABCo/klT7zJTN820OMqEYiiPGoPn3RFhqkQ80wCLcBGAs/s400/Graph1.gif" title="The 20 largest wine-importing countries by volume" width="400" /></a></div><br />The UK and Germany import lots of wine, because they have large populations but make only certain types of wine themselves. In both cases, they specialize in producing white wine, as it is hard to make high-quality red wine in their marginal grape-growing climates. So, they import wines across a wide range of prices, which means that the average price is in the middle. Germany, in particular, does not need to import expensive white wine, as they have plenty of their own. However, they are the world's biggest importers of bulk wine, principally from Italy, Spain, France and South Africa (see&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/208088912551256/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1977676548925808/?type=3&amp;theater" target="_blank">Top bulk wine routes in 2000 and 2015</a>).<br /><br />Japan, Sweden and Switzerland make very little wine at all, although all three do have commercial wine producers. So, they import almost all of their requirements, from the cheapest to the most expensive, The graph suggests that they focus on higher-priced wines, rather than on the cheapest stuff.<br /><br />The presence of France as a big importer of cheap wines often seems odd, because the French have plenty of inexpensive wine of their own. It has been pointed out that "tanker trucks [might] explain how France 'produces' much more wine than Spain despite having a lot less vineyard acreage" (<a href="http://blog.wblakegray.com/2017/01/is-some-french-wine-really-from-spain.html" target="_blank">Is some French wine really from Spain?</a>). Behind only Germany, France is actually one of the world's biggest importers of bulk wine — it used to import most of its bulk wine from Italy (and before that from Algeria), but it now relies predominantly on Spain (<a href="https://www.facebook.com/208088912551256/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1977676548925808/?type=3&amp;theater" target="_blank">Top bulk wine routes in 2000 and 2015</a>).<br /><br />However, in most other cases the wine volume imported presumably depends on the population size of the country, rather than the number of tanker trucks — countries with more people are likely to have a greater requirement for wine. After all, the USA is the world's third most populous country (after China and India), and even a small amount of wine <b><i>per person</i></b> would add up to a lot of wine. So, we should also look at the wine volume imported per person.<br /><br />The 2017 population data can be taken from the <a href="http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/" target="_blank">WorldoMeters</a> web page. The next graph shows the same data as above, but now the horizontal axis is the volume imported in liters per 1000 people (ie. total volume divided by population size). The pink dashed lines simply divide the horizontal and vertical axes into three sections, thus creating nine segments, to aid discussion.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dZAox-AKWYo/WhADbA_NL7I/AAAAAAAABCk/xE78q03L9hgC0hNJDmNGh1cUKZFPTjLhgCEwYBhgL/s1600/Graph2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The 20 largest wine-importing countries by volume / person" border="0" data-original-height="1115" data-original-width="1250" height="356" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dZAox-AKWYo/WhADbA_NL7I/AAAAAAAABCk/xE78q03L9hgC0hNJDmNGh1cUKZFPTjLhgCEwYBhgL/s400/Graph2.gif" title="The 20 largest wine-importing countries by volume / person" width="400" /></a></div><br />Note that two of the nine squares are empty — none of the big importers focus solely on the cheapest wines (the bottom-right corner), nor does anyone in this group import middle quantities of average wine price.<br /><br />With this re-calculation, the UK remains as a big importer of wines across all price ranges, but it is now joined by Belgium, Ireland and the Netherlands. Like the UK, the latter three countries also produce only small amounts of wine, and so they must important almost all of their requirements for all wine types.<br /><br />Sweden moves up into a middle position as a wine importer of expensive wines, while Switzerland moves well ahead into first place. Presumably, the Swiss simply consume more wine per person than do the Swedes. We may need to also compare their beer and spirits consumptions, to get the full picture here. Canada joins Sweden in the middle position, as they make only a limited range of wines.<br /><br />Japan remains as a small importer of expensive wines, and is now joined by the USA, moving well down the list. Presumably, the USA needs to import foreign wine only at the expensive end of the market— there is no real need to import the cheap stuff, as the market for inexpensive and middle-priced wines can easily be met by the local produce.<br /><br />It is, perhaps, interesting to note that this basic idea (supply the cheap stuff locally and import the expensive stuff) cannot be assumed for all alcohol products. For example, the USA is the world's biggest market for Cognac brandy, by volume. However, the key driver in this market is VS Cognac, the cheapest sort, where sales are reported to be dominated by African-Americans. The biggest market for Cognac by value, based on a preference for the luxury products, is China (see <a href="http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/global-cognac-sales-set-to-continue-growth-trend-614314623.html" target="_blank">Global Cognac sales set to continue growth trend</a>).<br /><br />Returning to our graph, Germany drops down the list as an importer of cheap wine, and is joined by Czechia (see <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/francistapon/2017/05/22/czechia-has-won-the-czech-republic-name-debate/" target="_blank">Czechia has won the Czech Republic name debate</a>) and Portugal. The Czechs are reported to drink more beer per capita than any other country (see <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_beer_consumption_per_capita" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>), and so maybe they are not great drinkers of wine of the expensive type.<br /><br />The position of Portugal is more problematic, because they produce a lot of inexpensive but very good wine of their own. Indeed, Portugese wine is among the best value-for-money in the world. So, why do they need to import any cheap wine, at all? Answering this question is not easy, because almost all discussions of Portugal and wine are about its exports, not imports (eg. the <a href="http://www.uiv.it/wine-by-numbers/" target="_blank">Wine by Numbers</a> data collection).<br /><br />Finally, China is the fastest growing market. It is currently ranked 6th for price, but is the 5th biggest importer by volume, although that shrinks dramatically when recalculated per person. Until recently, French wine was the most popular product, but Australia is now the front runner by value (<a href="http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2017/12/australian-wine-imports-make-further-gains-in-china/" target="_blank">Australian wine imports make further gains in China</a>). Indeed, China is now Australia’s highest value export wine market. The distinction between value and volume is important here — until surpassed by China, the USA was Australia’s highest <i><b>value</b></i> export wine market, while the UK remains the biggest <i><b>volume</b></i> market for Australian wine, Yellow Tail not withstanding (<a href="https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2017/01/china-now-australias-great-wine-hope/" target="_blank">China now Australia’s great wine hope)</a>. The British import plenty of bulk cheap Australian wine (<a href="https://www.facebook.com/208088912551256/photos/a.209757432384404.68969.208088912551256/1977676548925808/?type=3&amp;theater" target="_blank">Top bulk wine routes in 2000 and 2015</a>), and bottle it themselves, while the USA and China are more interested in the top (already bottled) end of the market.<br /><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-48522618138634365772017-12-25T00:30:00.000+01:002017-12-24T23:21:31.667+01:00Medical practitioners and malt whiskyGreetings of the season.<br /><br />For Christmas this year I thought that I might follow up on two previous posts that have proved to be quite popular on my other blog, which are about the detectable qualities of Scotch whiskies:<br /><ul><li><a href="https://phylonetworks.blogspot.se/2012/05/network-analysis-of-scotch-whiskies.html" target="_blank">Network analysis of scotch whiskies</a></li><li><a href="https://phylonetworks.blogspot.se/2014/02/single-malt-scotch-whiskies-network.html" target="_blank">Single-malt scotch whiskies — a network </a></li></ul><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7CT3osIihgY/Wj_0St_GRPI/AAAAAAAAEXw/TWnFv5AADzI1NO3uXvcukeQTfjl6BhsxwCLcBGAs/s1600/Whiskey-Glasses.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="302" data-original-width="273" height="151" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7CT3osIihgY/Wj_0St_GRPI/AAAAAAAAEXw/TWnFv5AADzI1NO3uXvcukeQTfjl6BhsxwCLcBGAs/s200/Whiskey-Glasses.jpg" width="136" /></a></div><br />Medical practitioners have been known to partake of these tipples; and along the way some of them have pondered the question as to whether it it possible for people to reliably distinguish among the various whiskies, in even the most basic way. For example, two medical groups have done some experiments, and published them in the Christmas issue of the <i>British Medical Journal</i>:<br /><ul><li>Stephen J Chadwick, Hugh A Dudley (1983) Can malt whisky be discriminated from blended whisky? The proof. A modification of Ronald Fisher's hypothetical tea tasting experiment. <i>British Medical Journal</i> 287:1912-1913.</li><li>EJ Moran Campbell, Diana ME Campbell, Robin S Roberts (1994) Ability to distinguish whisky (uisge beatha) from brandy (cognac). <i>British Medical Journal</i> 309:1686-1688.</li></ul>For those of you who think you know your whiskies, it turns out to be a lot harder to discriminate them than you think.<br /><br />Here is the abstract of the first paper:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">A modified version of Fisher's tea tasting experiment was performed to test the confident assertions of some members of an academic surgical unit that they could easily distinguish malt from blended whisky. Eight male volunteers from the unit, divided into regular and inexperienced whisky drinkers, were blindfolded and given a glass of each of six whiskies. The whiskies included three malts and three blends, and each subject tasted each whisky six times. They were asked whether the whisky was malt or blended, whether they could identify the distillery, and whether they liked it (ranked on a nine-point scale). Statistical analysis of the data suggested that within the [surgical] unit malt whisky could not be distinguished from blended whisky, and that experience did not alter powers of discrimination. These results suggest that, although "uisgebeatha" has unique properties, the inexpert drinker should choose his whisky to suit his taste and pocket and not his self image.</blockquote>Here is the abstract of the second paper:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">Objective: To assess the ability to distinguish between first rate malt whisky and brandy and between different brands of each. Design: Crossover with two sessions of 12 blindfold&nbsp;tastings of two whiskies and two brandies before and after supper, repeated not more than seven days later. Participants: four volunteers aged 50-68 years, all moderate drinkers of alcohol and members of a wine club. Results: Only one participant produced irrefutable statistical evidence of being able to distinguish between whisky and brandy, correctly identifying 50/51 (98%) samples. The participant who was best able to distinguish between whisky and brandy was also best able to identify correctly the brand of whisky (100%). Conclusion: The results show that some participants could distinguish neither between malt whisky and brandy nor between different brands of whisky and brandy. However, the success of one participant [a Scotsman] shows that "it can be done", and that his whisky specific ability is acquired not innate.</blockquote>These experiments received comments from some of their medical colleagues, for those of you who might like to read them:<br /><ul><li>James Howie (1983) Good motivation but indifferent methods.<i> British Medical Journal</i> 287:1913-1914.</li><li>Douglas G Altman (1983) How blind were the volunteers? <i>British Medical Journal</i> 287:1914-1915.</li><li>Stephen J Chadwick, Hugh A Dudley (1983) In defense of the whisky drinker on the Clapham omnibus. <i>British Medical Journal</i> 287:1915.</li><li>Ken MacRae (1994)&nbsp;A spirited attempt.&nbsp;<i>British Medical Journal</i> 309:1688.</li></ul>Of these, perhaps the most pertinent one is from both Howie and MacRae, who point out that some of the drinks chosen were rather similar. Obviously, this point alone obviates the need for an experiment at all — if it is known beforehand that whiskies are similar to each other (as shown in the two blog posts linked above), then why do we need an experiment to show it? Except for the fun of doing the tasting, of course!<br /><br />Finally, Altman notes that "last Christmas I helped to perform a small experiment that demonstrated that white wine and red wine cannot always be distinguished (unpublishable results)." Christmas can have that effect on you.<br /><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-10847114210445768052017-12-18T00:30:00.000+01:002017-12-18T00:30:00.663+01:00Sample sizes, and the supposed wine differences between women and menWe have seen a number of web discussions this year about the ostensible differences between males and females when it comes to sensory perception, particularly the tasting of wine. For example:<br /><ul><li><a href="https://vinepair.com/articles/women-better-tasting-wine-men-science-answer/" target="_blank">Are women better at tasting wine than men? Science has the answer</a></li><li><a href="https://daily.sevenfifty.com/war-of-the-noses/" target="_blank">War of the noses</a></li><li><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4959cd58-ae18-11e7-beba-5521c713abf4" target="_blank">The wine glass ceiling</a></li></ul>More recently, a paper appeared in the <i>Journal of Wine Economics</i> that has been taken to shed some light on this issue (for example, see <a href="http://blog.wblakegray.com/2017/11/men-and-women-dont-actually-have.html" target="_blank">Men and women don't actually have different taste in win</a>e ; <a href="https://www.meininger.de/en/wine-business-international/do-men-and-women-taste-differently" target="_blank">Do men and women taste differently?</a>). It apparently opposes the notion that such differences are of much practical importance:<br /><ul><li>Jeffrey C. Bodington (2017) Wine, women, men, and Type II error.<br /><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2017.8" target="_blank">Journal of Wine Economics</a> 12: 161-172.</li></ul>The author compiled data from 23 different wine tastings (conducted by other people) in which the wine-quality scores could be subdivided into those from male and female tasters. He then proceeded to apply various statistical tests to the data, to assess whether there were differences between women and men in the wine-tasting results.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QoBGNwBwmcg/WicLXQMzhNI/AAAAAAAABE8/hQNha1_TLXUjGVTUiuMtuH5ye7WlSLrEwCLcBGAs/s1600/bdc89358f9482955eb121592a6368607--bing-crosby-grace-kelly.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="400" height="240" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QoBGNwBwmcg/WicLXQMzhNI/AAAAAAAABE8/hQNha1_TLXUjGVTUiuMtuH5ye7WlSLrEwCLcBGAs/s320/bdc89358f9482955eb121592a6368607--bing-crosby-grace-kelly.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Leaving aside the physiology of wine tasting for the moment, there is one thing that immediately struck me when I read the paper — the incredibly small sample sizes used in the data analyses. This is a topic that I have commented on before, when I pointed out that there are issues with experiments that can far outweigh the effects of sample size, notably biased sampling (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/08/why-do-people-get-hung-up-about-sample.html" target="_blank">Why do people get hung up about sample size?</a>). However, in this current case, the samples sizes seem quite unbelievable — there were never more than 20 people per gender at each of 23 different tastings, and often much fewer.<br /><br />Now, it might seem intuitively obvious that such small sizes are unlikely to lead us anywhere useful, but we can do better than merely express an opinion about this. It seems worthwhile for me to try to quantitatively assess the situation.<br /><br /><b>Samples sizes and experiments</b><br /><br />First, however, we need to be clear about the consequences of samples sizes for experiments. Indeed, the paper's author himself directs attention to the issue, by mentioning "Type II error" in his title. This esoteric expression is the statistical term for what scientists call "false negatives", the failure to find something when it really is there to be found. Alternatively, "Type I errors" are "false positives", the finding of something that is either illusory or trivially unimportant.<br /><br />Using an analogy, if I am looking for a needle in a haystack then a false negative means that I fail to find it when there really is a needle in there — I have made a Type II error. If I find something in the haystack that I interpret as being a needle when it is not, then that is a false positive — I have made a Type I error.<br /><br />Small sample sizes are prone to false negatives, whereas gratuitously large sample sizes are prone to false positives. Neither situation can be considered to be a good thing for an experiment.<br /><br />Needless to say, statisticians have had a good look at these issues, and they have developed the notions of both statistical Power and statistical Sensitivity. Mathematically, Power is the complement of a Type II error, and thus expresses the <b><i>theoretical</i></b> probability that a statistical test will correctly reject the null hypothesis being tested — that is, Power tells us how probable it is that the statistical analysis will find something if there really is something to find. Sensitivity is a related concept, referring to the <b><i>empirical</i></b> ability of an experiment to to correctly reject the null hypothesis. Both concepts can be expressed mathematically.<br /><br /><b>A look at the paper</b><br /><br />Returning to the paper in question, two experimental null hypotheses were tested, using different subsets of the 23 tastings:<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<b>H1:</b> Women’s and men’s scores have different means and standard deviations<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<b>H2:</b> Women and men have differently shaped distributions of scores<br />Various statistical tests were applied to test each hypothesis. I won't go into the technical details of what this all means, but will instead jump straight to the results presented in Tables 1, 2 and 3 of the paper.<br /><br />Sufficient details are presented for me to perform a Power analysis of H1 and a Sensitivity analysis of both H1 and H2. (The test statistics are not presented for H2, only the Type I errors, and so the Power analysis cannot be performed.) My calculations were performed using the <a href="http://www.gpower.hhu.de/en.html" target="_blank">G*Power v.3.1.9.2</a> program; and the outcomes of my analyses are shown in the table below. Each row of the table represents one wine tasting, as listed in the first column. The second column shows the sample sizes, taken from the paper, while the final two columns are the results of my new calculations.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4Eb2h4MbJY8/WicJ4zIKAGI/AAAAAAAABEw/GlyzyQQyz78Lwffp8rWOfzPrvqmvVZzbACLcBGAs/s1600/Bodington.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Power and Sensitivity analyses of wine tasting sample sizes" border="0" data-original-height="691" data-original-width="1321" height="230" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4Eb2h4MbJY8/WicJ4zIKAGI/AAAAAAAABEw/GlyzyQQyz78Lwffp8rWOfzPrvqmvVZzbACLcBGAs/s400/Bodington.gif" title="Power and Sensitivity analyses of wine tasting sample sizes" width="440" /></a></div><br />Formally, my Power analyses assess the post hoc achieved power of the statistical t-test at p=0.05 Type I error. More practically for you, all you need to know is that a Power of 80% is conventionally considered to be the minimum acceptable level for an experiment, and this represents an allowable probability of 20% for false negatives. For preference, a good experiment would require a Power of 95%, which is a 5% probability for false negatives.<br /><br />As you can see in the table, the Power of Bodington's analyses are nowhere near these levels, as the Power of his analyses never exceeds 11%. Indeed, his probabilities of false negatives are in the range 90-95%, meaning that he is coming close to certainty that he will accept the null hypothesis for each statistical test, and thus conclude that he found no difference between men and women, irrespective of whether there actually are such differences or not.<br /><br />Formally, my Sensitivity analyses quantify what is called the required Effect size. This is a quantitative measure of the "strength" of the phenomenon that the experiment is seeking to find. Large Effect sizes mean that the phenomenon will be easy to detect statistically, while small Effect sizes will be hard to find. Using my earlier analogy, if I am looking for a sewing needle in my haystack, then that is a small Effect size, whereas looking for a knitting needle would be a large Effect size.<br /><br />Small Effect sizes require large sample sizes, while large Effect sizes can be detected even with small sample sizes. I specified p=0.05 &amp; power=0.80 for my calculations, which relate to the acceptable levels of false positives and negatives, respectively.<br /><br />Using the standard rule of thumb (Shlomo S. Sawilowsky. 2009. New effect size rules of thumb. <i>Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods</i> 8: 597-599), Effect sizes are grouped from very small (0.1) to huge (2.0). Effect sizes larger than 1 are encountered only rarely in the real world, and they do not need statistical analysis because the phenomenon being studied will be obvious, even to the naked eye.<br /><br />For Bodington's statistical analyses, the various Effect sizes are: 1 medium, 8 large, 15 very large, and 7 huge; none of them are small or very small. So, his tests were capable of detecting only the most blatant differences between women and men. Such differences would actually not need an experiment, because we would be able to see them for ourselves, anyway.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rIbgCJKJXGo/WicQOIvus2I/AAAAAAAABFM/8LyYngxO6TUzW6WZHukqwoEz-W__WrOFQCLcBGAs/s1600/brotherhood.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="123" data-original-width="219" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rIbgCJKJXGo/WicQOIvus2I/AAAAAAAABFM/8LyYngxO6TUzW6WZHukqwoEz-W__WrOFQCLcBGAs/s1600/brotherhood.jpg" /></a></div><br /><b>Required sample sizes</b><br /><br />To put this another way, there would have to be almost no variation between people within each of the two genders, in order for Bodington's statistical tests to have detected anything. When there is only small variation, then small sample sizes can be effective. However, if there are large differences between people, irrespective of gender, then we would require large sample sizes. My Power and Sensitivity analyses show that we would, indeed, require very large sample sizes in this case.<br /><br />To examine this, we can perform what is called a prospective (or a priori) Power analysis. My calculations show that sample sizes of 300-450 people would be required per gender, depending on the particular assumptions made during the calculations. That is, if you want to do this experiment for yourselves, you will need to find at least 300 men and 300 women, give each of them the same sets of wines to taste, and then record their scores. If your statistical analyses of the scores still do not detect any gender differences, then you can be fairly sure that any such differences are indeed small.<br /><br /><b>Conclusion</b><br /><br />Bodington's conclusion that the experiments found no detectable difference between men and women is therefore unsurprising — the analyses have so little statistical power that any such differences, if they exist, were unlikely to be found. The author suggests that "these differences are small compared to non-gender-related idiosyncratic differences between individuals and random expressions of preference." If so, then any study of the idea that the genders prefer different wines will require much larger sample sizes than the ones used in the published paper.<br /><br />On this particular wine topic, the jury is still out. Based on differences in physiology, there is good reason to expect differences in wine tasting between females and males. However, measuring the size and nature of this difference, if it really does exist, remains to be done.<br /><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-74059509449370708372017-12-11T00:30:00.000+01:002017-12-11T00:30:00.395+01:00Do community wine-quality scores converge to the middle ground?The short answer appears to be: not very often. This is surprising, given what is reported for other communities. This may indicate something unique about the wine community.<br /><br />A few weeks ago, I discussed community wine-quality scores, such as those in the Cellar Tracker database (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/11/cellartracker-wine-scores-are-not.html" target="_blank">Cellar Tracker wine scores are not impartial</a>). One of the subjects I commented on was the suggestion that the "wisdom of crowds" can mean that members of the crowd allow their judgement to be skewed by their peers. In the case of wine-quality scores, this would mean that scores from large groups of tasters may converge towards the middle ground, as the number of scores increases.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pqNlotiPMps/WhsnRD82WdI/AAAAAAAABEQ/d5xw8vjK3WwRLel7Frlz1Vml2YJ5rbaCwCLcBGAs/s1600/index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="129" data-original-width="99" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pqNlotiPMps/WhsnRD82WdI/AAAAAAAABEQ/d5xw8vjK3WwRLel7Frlz1Vml2YJ5rbaCwCLcBGAs/s1600/index.jpg" /></a></div><br />In the formal literature, this topic has been examined by, for example, Omer Gokcekus, Miles Hewstone &amp; Huseyin Cakal (2014. In vino veritas? Social influence on ‘private’ wine evaluations at a wine social networking site. <i>American Association of Wine Economists Working Paper No. 153</i>). They looked at the trend in Cellar Tracker scores for wines through time, from when the first score is added for each wine. They wanted to see whether the variation in scores for a wine decreases as more scores are added for that wine, which would support the thesis about crowd behavior. They concluded that there is some evidence of this.<br /><br />The important practical point here is that Cellar Tracker displays the average score for each wine when a user tries to add a new score of their own, and it is hard to ignore this information. So, it would be rather easy for a user to be aware of the difference between their own proposed score and the current "wisdom of the crowds". This would presumably have little or no effect when only a few scores have been added for each wine, but it might potentially have an effect as more score are added, because the crowd opinion then becomes so much clearer.<br /><br />It has occurred to me that some data that I used in another blog post (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/12/are-there-biases-in-community-wine.html" target="_blank">Are there biases in community wine-quality scores?</a>) might also be used to examine the possibility that Cellar Tracker scores are biased in this way. In my case, I will look at individual wines, rather than pooling the data across all wines, as was done in the research study described above.<br /><br />The data at hand are the publicly available scores from <a href="https://www.cellartracker.com/" target="_blank">Cellar Tracker</a> for eight wines (for my data, only 55-75% of the scores were available as community scores, with the rest not being shared by the users). These eight wines included red wines from several different regions, a sweet white, a still white, a sparkling wine, and a fortified wine. In each case I searched the database for a wine with at least 300 community scores; but I did not succeed for the still white wine (which had only 189 scores).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZRSUwZujOl0/WD_pfJT-nYI/AAAAAAAAAYU/rm1b4fjBH14Ubij16FwM1k2TQNeTVdK8wCPcBGAYYCw/s1600/ct_logo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="57" data-original-width="202" height="56" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZRSUwZujOl0/WD_pfJT-nYI/AAAAAAAAAYU/rm1b4fjBH14Ubij16FwM1k2TQNeTVdK8wCPcBGAYYCw/s200/ct_logo.png" width="200" /></a></div><br />The results for the eight wines are shown in the graphs at the end of the post. Each point represents one quality score for the wine (some users enter multiple scores through time). For each wine, each score is shown (vertically) as the difference from the mean score for the wine — positive scores indicate that score was greater than the average score, while negative scores indicate that it was less than the average. The time is shown (horizontally) as the number of days after the first tasting recorded for that wine.<br /><br />The expectation is that, if the wine-quality scores <b>do</b> converge towards the middle ground, then the variability of the scores should decrease through time. That is, the points in the graphs will be more spread out vertically during the earliest times, compared to the later times.<br /><br />The results seem to be quite consistent, with one exception. That exception is the first one, where the scores are, indeed, more variable through the first third of the time period. In all of the other cases, the scores are most variable during the middle period, which is when most of the scores get added to the database, or sometimes also in the late period.<br /><br />So, for these wines at least, I find little evidence that Cellar Tracker scores do converge towards the middle ground. This seems to disagree with the study of Gokcekus, Hewstone &amp; Cakal (mentioned above), who concluded that community scores are normative (= "to conform with the positive expectations of another") rather than informational ("to accept information obtained from another as evidence about reality").<br /><br />However, a study by Julian McAuley &amp; Jure Leskovec (2013. From amateurs to connoisseurs: modeling the evolution of user expertise through online reviews. <i>Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on the World Wide Web</i>, pp. 897-908), found that user behavior in the Cellar Tracker database was quite different from the other four community databases that they studied (Beer Advocate; Rate Beer; Amazon Fine Foods; Amazon Movies).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6aXivEZvtVI/Wh0eOsdQ_CI/AAAAAAAABEg/khcrVHMCU94Y7a8AAfKBvFEn0gqvc1pAQCLcBGAs/s1600/crowd-kran-580.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="138" data-original-width="580" height="76" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6aXivEZvtVI/Wh0eOsdQ_CI/AAAAAAAABEg/khcrVHMCU94Y7a8AAfKBvFEn0gqvc1pAQCLcBGAs/s320/crowd-kran-580.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />So, maybe wine drinkers really are different from beer drinkers and movie goers, when it comes to community assessment of their products? The wisdom of the wine crowd may be unique! In particular, you will note that wine drinkers are not afraid to give rather low scores for wines — the scores in the graphs go much further below the average than they do above it. Note that the dataset excludes wines that are considered to be flawed, which are usually not given scores at all (although very rarely they receive scores in the 50-60 range, which I excluded, as representing faulty wines).<br /><br />It seems to me that community wine scores are actually informational, rather than normative, expressing the opinion of the drinker rather than that of the crowd. This also fits in with the easily observed fact that the community scores are consistently lower than are those of the professional wine critics (see my previous post <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/11/cellartracker-wine-scores-are-not.html" target="_blank">Cellar Tracker wine scores are not impartial</a>) — the wine community is not easily swayed by expert opinion. However, the tendency of <b>all</b> wine reviewers, professional, semi-professional and amateur, to favor a score of 90 over a score of 89 certainly represents an unfortunate bias.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vI5N10wvL30/WhsZovmS3-I/AAAAAAAABDU/Z2IVWUoYns0spmfNPof_L-FnTRxo1J0gQCLcBGAs/s1600/Alvear.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Alvear Pedro Ximenez" border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1439" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vI5N10wvL30/WhsZovmS3-I/AAAAAAAABDU/Z2IVWUoYns0spmfNPof_L-FnTRxo1J0gQCLcBGAs/s400/Alvear.gif" title="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Alvear Pedro Ximenez" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-S0lOdJ1p53o/WhsZnZ451VI/AAAAAAAABDI/Ay1t4QrQl1gCQw7Fr4T4INQAxTVsUOxiQCEwYBhgL/s1600/Barbaresco.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Barbaresco 2006" border="0" data-original-height="1083" data-original-width="1437" height="301" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-S0lOdJ1p53o/WhsZnZ451VI/AAAAAAAABDI/Ay1t4QrQl1gCQw7Fr4T4INQAxTVsUOxiQCEwYBhgL/s400/Barbaresco.gif" title="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Barbaresco 2006" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vqYO_pNsqrg/WhsZoKRXPaI/AAAAAAAABDM/lk3s69BDBSgG0RczPnQlk5lOIYQQK2UiACEwYBhgL/s1600/Caymus.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Caymus Cabernet 2012" border="0" data-original-height="1082" data-original-width="1437" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vqYO_pNsqrg/WhsZoKRXPaI/AAAAAAAABDM/lk3s69BDBSgG0RczPnQlk5lOIYQQK2UiACEwYBhgL/s400/Caymus.gif" title="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Caymus Cabernet 2012" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4zh2O_QJ7xc/WhsZobyYI6I/AAAAAAAABDQ/G54cLkzHMtUDJr81BErhwb_iJ0PDT9yjQCEwYBhgL/s1600/Cliquot.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Clicquot NV Brut" border="0" data-original-height="1084" data-original-width="1440" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4zh2O_QJ7xc/WhsZobyYI6I/AAAAAAAABDQ/G54cLkzHMtUDJr81BErhwb_iJ0PDT9yjQCEwYBhgL/s400/Cliquot.gif" title="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Clicquot NV Brut" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4MWT44pu6kw/WhsgPj1u91I/AAAAAAAABEA/ye1eoBFfLIADPOo8JLdGEewNjg3SNvK9gCLcBGAs/s1600/Merry.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Edwards Sauvignon Blanc 2012" border="0" data-original-height="1084" data-original-width="1440" height="300" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4MWT44pu6kw/WhsgPj1u91I/AAAAAAAABEA/ye1eoBFfLIADPOo8JLdGEewNjg3SNvK9gCLcBGAs/s400/Merry.gif" title="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Edwards Sauvignon Blanc 2012" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CCesVtxW-Gk/WhsbAUzV9aI/AAAAAAAABDo/mAF6rrXLcc03JfjClgjybPg66EDQLh2cACEwYBhgL/s1600/Pontet.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Pontet-Canet 2003" border="0" data-original-height="1083" data-original-width="1438" height="301" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CCesVtxW-Gk/WhsbAUzV9aI/AAAAAAAABDo/mAF6rrXLcc03JfjClgjybPg66EDQLh2cACEwYBhgL/s400/Pontet.gif" title="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Pontet-Canet 2003" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QWJv0VB4yYA/WhsbAMMS9HI/AAAAAAAABDk/W4aijTWzjmg5YCAlangja2K14UzDoBuEwCEwYBhgL/s1600/Rieussec.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Rieussec 2001" border="0" data-original-height="1084" data-original-width="1438" height="301" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QWJv0VB4yYA/WhsbAMMS9HI/AAAAAAAABDk/W4aijTWzjmg5YCAlangja2K14UzDoBuEwCEwYBhgL/s400/Rieussec.gif" title="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Rieussec 2001" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-40H2PHLSKqA/WhsbAzL12tI/AAAAAAAABDw/EMJne6BoLuQcHEAgS_9GxFcvhOoRVXNPwCEwYBhgL/s1600/Tondonia.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Tondonia 2001" border="0" data-original-height="1078" data-original-width="1437" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-40H2PHLSKqA/WhsbAzL12tI/AAAAAAAABDw/EMJne6BoLuQcHEAgS_9GxFcvhOoRVXNPwCEwYBhgL/s400/Tondonia.gif" title="Cellar Tracker wine-quality scores through time for Tondonia 2001" width="400" /></a></div><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-52176625055440126642017-12-04T00:30:00.000+01:002017-12-04T00:30:01.524+01:00California cabernets do not get the same quality scores at different tastingsWe are commonly told that most wines are drunk within a very few days of purchase. On the other hand, it is a commonly held belief among connoisseurs that many wines are likely to improve with a bit of bottle age, especially red wines. Counter-balancing the latter idea, it is the easy to demonstrate that the perception of wine quality depends on the people concerned and the circumstances under which the wines are tasted.<br /><br />Therefore, I thought that it might be interesting to look at some repeated tastings of the same wines under circumstances where they are formally evaluated under roughly the same conditions. Do these wines get the same quality scores at the different tastings?<br /><br />To look at this, I will use some of the data from the tastings of the Vintners Club, based in San Francisco. The results of the early club tastings are reported in the book <i>Vintners Club: Fourteen Years of Wine Tastings 1973-1987</i> (edited by Mary-Ellen McNeil-Draper. 1988); and I have used this valuable resource in several previous blog posts (eg. <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/08/wine-tastings-should-we-assess-wines-by.html" target="_blank">Should we assess wines by quality points or rank order of preference?</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-a8LdAfsfhR0/WcYfToJz8mI/AAAAAAAAA8Q/7rmuhsN3ZmAxW4ul3s2ukl5MUmu8yaO-gCPcBGAYYCw/s1600/Vintners8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="940" data-original-width="802" height="200" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-a8LdAfsfhR0/WcYfToJz8mI/AAAAAAAAA8Q/7rmuhsN3ZmAxW4ul3s2ukl5MUmu8yaO-gCPcBGAYYCw/s200/Vintners8.jpg" width="170" /></a></div><br />For each wine tasted, the book provides the average of the UCDavis points (out of 20) assigned by the group of tasters present at that meeting. The Vintners Club has "always kept to the Davis point system" for its tastings and, therefore, averaging these scores is mathematically valid, as is comparing them across tastings. Many of the wines were tasted at more than one meeting, although each meeting had its own theme. For out purposes here, the largest dataset is provided by the tastings involving California cabernet wines, which I will therefore use for my exploration.<br /><br />In the book, there were 170 different California cabernets that the Club tasted more than once, sometimes up to five years apart. Most of these were tasted only twice, but some were tasted up to four times over four years. Of these 170 wines, only eight wines produced the same average score on their first two tasting occasions. Of the rest, 63 wines (37%) produced a lower score on the second occasion, and 99 (58%) produced a higher average score. Perhaps we might tentatively conclude that California cabernet wines <i>do</i> tend to increase in quality with a bit of time in bottle?<br /><br />However, it is instructive to look at those 137 wines that were re-tasted within one year of their first tasting. This will give us some idea of the repeatability of wine quality scores, as we should not really be expecting California cabernet wines to change too much within their first year in the bottle. Any differences in scores are therefore likely to reflect the tasting group rather than the wine itself (unless there is much bottle variation, or the wines mature very rapidly).<br /><br />The data are shown in the first graph, with the difference between the two tasting dates shown horizontally, and the difference between the two average UCDavis scores shown vertically (ie. second tasting score minus first tasting score). Each point represents one wine, tasted twice within a year.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AgwIeMxwrf8/WeZmY5SLgOI/AAAAAAAABAM/pw1sbAtMbII34KSvWzcTp4-t5-BQyV6mwCLcBGAs/s1600/Cabernet1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Difference in quality scores for wines re-tasted within 1 year" border="0" data-original-height="1161" data-original-width="1398" height="331" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AgwIeMxwrf8/WeZmY5SLgOI/AAAAAAAABAM/pw1sbAtMbII34KSvWzcTp4-t5-BQyV6mwCLcBGAs/s400/Cabernet1.gif" title="Difference in quality scores for wines re-tasted within 1 year" width="400" /></a></div><br />Clearly, there is considerable variability in the quality scores between tastings (the scores are spread out vertically over several quality points). Moreover, there is not much pattern to this variability — even after only a few days the scores can differ by more than 1 point; and even after a year they can still be identical. Most of the wines (70%) produced scores within +/– 1 point at the two tastings.<br /><br />Notably, however, there were more decreases in score than there were increases between the two tastings. Only eight wines produced an increase in score of more than 1 point, while 33 wines (24%) produced a decrease in score of more than 1 point, and four of these actually decreased by more than 2 points. (NB: some of the points on the graph sit on top of each other.) I was not expecting to see such a strong pattern.<br /><br />A so-called Difference/Average plot can sometimes be informative, and this is shown in the next graph. This shows the same data as above, but this time the horizontal axis represents the average of the two quality scores for each wine (rather than representing time).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pqtXTBizE4M/WeZmZC3f6oI/AAAAAAAABAU/2IpDu2zDxoAlZ64CJFbjK-QtpO6wU7DGACEwYBhgL/s1600/Cabernet2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Quality scores for wines re-tasted within 1 year" border="0" data-original-height="1161" data-original-width="1399" height="331" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pqtXTBizE4M/WeZmZC3f6oI/AAAAAAAABAU/2IpDu2zDxoAlZ64CJFbjK-QtpO6wU7DGACEwYBhgL/s400/Cabernet2.gif" title="Quality scores for wines re-tasted within 1 year" width="400" /></a></div><br />This graph does not reveal much in the way of tell-tale patterns, which is unusual. However, we might anticipate that high-scoring wines will get more consistent quality scores, and this appears to be so for those few wines scoring &gt;16 points. Furthermore, wines scoring &lt;14 points do not do well at their second tasting.<br /><br />Finally, we can look at those six California cabernets that were each tasted on four separate occasions. The final graph shows the time-course( horizontally) of their score (vertically), with each wine represented by a single line (as labeled).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZBL57R76rHI/WeZmY96gR9I/AAAAAAAABAQ/0J6boPb1t3YG3G_qm4gWPKO2iSSVvP8sgCEwYBhgL/s1600/Cabernet3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Quality scores of wines tasted four times" border="0" data-original-height="1465" data-original-width="1405" height="400" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZBL57R76rHI/WeZmY96gR9I/AAAAAAAABAQ/0J6boPb1t3YG3G_qm4gWPKO2iSSVvP8sgCEwYBhgL/s400/Cabernet3.gif" title="Quality scores of wines tasted four times" width="382" /></a></div><br />Note that only one wine (from Stag's Leap) consistently increased in assessed quality over the years, while two other wines (from Beaulieu, and Robert Mondavi) consistently decreased. The remaining three wines had more erratic patterns. These differences may simply reflect random variation, and so we shouldn't read too much into this small sample size. Nevertheless, we do <i>not</i> see the hoped-for general increase in assessed quality of California cabernets over their first few years in bottle.<br /><br />So, do California cabernets get the same quality scores at different tastings? In general, yes. However, a large number of them end up with notably lower scores if there is a second tasting within a year.<br /><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.com4