Here comes the sun: Sun cycle heats up

The sun has entered a period of peak sunspot activity that corresponds to an increased risk for disruptions to electrical grids and telecommunications on Earth. The bright yellow spots seen in this image of the solar atmosphere are "active regions," which contain sunspots, explained New Mexico State University sun scientist and assistant professor James McAteer. (Photo by NASA)

LAS CRUCES — They're like huge, cosmic belches.

And, when aimed at Earth, lots of problems can follow close behind.

Those belches are actually teeny-tiny charged bits that are forcefully flung from our nearest star, the sun, into surrounding space.

And there's more chance for such outbursts, now that the sun is moving into a state of frenzied of activity that occurs once every 11 years or so.

With that spike, the risk for wide-spread disruptions to everyday life on Earth also increases, explained local sun scientists from New Mexico State University.

"The last big burst of activity we got was in 2003," said solar researcher James McAteer, solar researcher and assistant professor at NMSU.

At issue, McAteer said, are increases in two types of activity: solar flares, which are sudden bursts of radiation from the sun that move at light-speed, and coronal mass ejections, a.k.a. CMEs, that are essentially a "big ball of plasma from the sun that's shot out and moves much slower through space."

Peak approaching

Both types of activity tend to happen more often as the number of sunspots — dark regions on the sun's surface — spikes as part of the sun's cyclical nature. Solar Cycle 24, which started in 2008, is moving into its peak phase, meaning there will be more sunspots than at other times, according to NASA.

Advertisement

Dubbed solar maximum, that peak can translate into as many as a handful of CMEs a day and up to 10 to 15 solar flares per day, McAteer said. By comparison, during the low point in the sun's cycle, "we could go for several months without any."

Of the two kinds of activity, it's the plasma spurts that are most worrisome, said McAteer and his colleague, Jason Jackiewicz, assistant professor of astronomy at NMSU.

"The high-energy charged particles can make it down into the poles, into Earth," Jackiewicz said.

The particles are mostly deflected by Earth's atmosphere, but the North and South Pole — thanks the nature of the planet's magnetic field — are open windows of sorts for them to reach the ground, Jackiewicz said. And that's where they can wreak havoc.

Electrical charges can build up and quickly overwhelm devices or infrastructure that are already carrying electricity, pushing them past their capacities, Jackiewicz said. Underground electrical lines are especially susceptible.

Another result of the particles' arrival is the appearance of an aurora — a shimmering, colorful sky display that's usually seen only by people in regions closer to the poles, experts said. But with a particularly strong solar storm, the nighttime light show can be visible much closer to the equator.

"We rarely see it down here," McAteer said. "But last year, some of my colleagues in Colorado saw the aurora."

Indeed, the sun's heightened activity over the coming year boosts the odds that Las Crucens might be able to catch a glimpse, too, McAteer said.

Impacts?

One risk from solar storms is to cell phone service. That's because carriers, of course, rely on satellites. And satellites can be blasted and damaged by the charged particles of a CME or fall out of orbit because solar storms - through a few different ways - can cause the devices to slow down, experts said.

Scientists have made some headway protecting satellites from CMEs, such as by adding on-board shields, but there's still a long ways to go in keeping them from losing speed because of a solar storm, Jackiewicz said.

Another potential risk is to electrical grids.

The most vulnerable grids are those closer to the poles, according to McAteer. But even damage there could impact more southern locations indirectly, he said, thanks to how electrical networks in different parts of the country rely upon one another for backup power.

So, widespread power failures along the Canadian border, for instance, could have a trickle-down impact.

"The effect of that power-shifting is felt way down the line," McAteer said.

Recovering from that could be difficult, McAteer said, because across the nation there aren't a lot of spare grid parts, like generators, on hand.

One way of dulling the effects of a solar storm would be to shut off a power grid before it hits, McAteer said. But that would take political intervention.

Hector Puente, senior vice president and CEO of El Paso Electric Co., which provides power in Doña Ana County, said the threat posed by solar storms has been on the company's radar for quite a while.

"So far, we really haven't experienced anything, as opposed to what they see in Canada or the northern U.S.," he said. "So far, we haven't felt it, but we're always on alert."

Asked about the possibility of a chain-reaction grid failure affecting Doña Ana County, Puente said that El Paso Electric Co. is plugged into a grid of mainly western states, not northern or eastern ones, which means there's less risk. He did say Oregon is among the states on the western grid.

Still, even if that kind of reaction began, Puente said, "we have the necessary mechanisms to cut it off, so it would not affect the entire grid."

While it's not outside the realm of possibility that a massive solar storm could affect personal electronics such as TVs or computers directly — as opposed to through their supporting infrastructure — it's also not likely McAteer said.

A low max

Curiously, the number of sunspots so far during this peak, is relatively low compared to in past solar cycles, experts said.

"According to most indications, this will be the weakest cycle in 100 years, since Cycle 14, which peaked in 1906," Jackiewicz said.

While it may seem more quiet than a typical max, that doesn't rule out the chance that a larger-than-usual storm could hit, McAteer said.

Sometimes big storms happen after the peak, when the sunspot activity starts declining again, he said.

McAteer noted that it's only been since the '80s and '90s that society has been heavily dependent upon airline travel, power grids and communications satellites — all technologies that could feel the impact of a really big solar storm. It's just a matter of time before one hits, he said.

"There's been nothing on the scale of a Katrina or Sandy," he said, in making a weather comparison. "We know that there will be something, but there has been nothing so far."

Diana Alba Soular can be reached at (575) 541-5443; follow her on Twitter @AlbaSoular

10 Sun Facts

1. The sun is a star.

2. It's the closest star to Earth.

3. The Earth orbits around the sun, which acts as a large anchor for the solar system.