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UK military leaders have raised concerns that more than 80 per cent of the UK’s liquefied natural gas imports would be halted if*Iran made good its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz.Ministers and senior military figures have been warned that almost half the UK’s gas imports, and 84 per cent of its LNG imports, use the waterway, say people within the Ministry of Defence and the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

Since December, Iran has repeatedly threatened it would block the critical shipping lane at the mouth of the Gulf if its oil exports were blocked. One-fifth of the world’s*oil*and one-third of its LNG passes through the strait.Lord West, former head of the Royal Navy and security adviser to Gordon Brown when the latter was prime minister, told the Financial Times that, if the strait were blockaded, the sharp fall in the UK’s gas supplies would be the country’s single most critical issue.“I have no doubt at all that this would be the biggest problem for us,” Lord West told the Financial Times, adding that the UK would also have to weather the economic fall-out from higher global oil and gas energy prices if shipping through the strait was interrupted.The risk has risen as refiners have stopped buying Iranian oil ahead of the expected decision to enforce sanctions in response to Tehran’s attempts to*develop a nuclear arms programme.Furthermore, Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections are adding to Tehran’s need to posture, said Christopher Parry, the MoD’s former director-general of development, concepts and doctrine.“In strategic terms, the issue with the Iranians is not so much about nuclear, it’s about the fact that they have an election in 2013. What they are trying to do is create a state of crisis and emergency, which I think will lead them to defer the election because they know they are going to get hammered unless they are able to rig it,” he said. Mr Parry said in an interview.For the UK, that would mean an interruption of gas supplies from Qatar, which has no viable export alternative to the strait.

Iranian naval assets in the region along with international maritime boundaries, shipping lanes, terminals, pipelines and major oil and gas fieldsSince 2010, the*UK’s gas imports from Qatar*have risen 67 per cent, while those from Norway are down 17 per cent and the UK’s North Sea supplies have continued to dwindle. From August to October last year, the most recent period for which the DECC has data, 46 per cent of the UK’s LNG imports – or 35 per cent of its total gas demand – came from Qatar.Less than 1 per cent of the UK’s oil imports travel through the strait.The DECC said: “We are aware of the importance of Hormuz, both in terms of oil and LNG imports to the UK. We are therefore working across Whitehall on this issue. Relevant ministers have been briefed.”Other countries are far less vulnerable than the UK, in large part because they have a more diverse pool of suppliers and more storage capacity.Frank Harris, analyst at Wood Mackenzie, the energy consultancy, said the UK’s storage levels were high thanks to the mild winter, but he warned that the country was far behind others, such as Japan, in minimising its energy vulnerability.“There is a lesson for UK plc here: unless you are going to start buying contractual gas on a firm basis from a diverse portfolio of suppliers, you are going to risk ending up in this situation again.”

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Never did think this "eggs in one basket" approach to energy supply was a good one.

Could Iran actually block and defend the Strait? They'd risk war but I'd imagine their navy would be no match for UK or UK with US help. Either way it would disrupt supply and send gas prices through the roof. It's a tough situation.

Iran also knows that while they could close the straight for a week or so, that action may cause the destruction of their entire fleet and possibly their air force. That's why they're so hot to acquire the nuclear option.

Iran also knows that while they could close the straight for a week or so, that action may cause the destruction of their entire fleet and possibly their air force. That's why they're so hot to acquire the nuclear option.

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That makes sense. We would demolish their conventional navy and air force and they know that as you said. Yet another reason to try and use less oil in the US and elsewhere.

Sometimes I can't help wondering if the blustering isn't just strategic below the line marketing to keep prices high. Note how the other oil/gas producers never have a word to say against the Iranians when they play their games.

P.S. wouldn't it be great to be able to just turn around and say "Go ahead, you can block the Strait, we don't care..."

Sometimes I can't help wondering if the blustering isn't just strategic below the line marketing to keep prices high. Note how the other oil/gas producers never have a word to say against the Iranians when they play their games.

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