I agree with your analysis as to what happened. The owners said you're going to take a haircut, and the players said you want too much hair.

At that point the negotiations ended.

Now, where do we go from here???

The owners are now saying we start over from scratch. The players say we're disbanding the union and doing this in the courts. All previous discussions are irrelevant.

Now, the owners have the players over a VERY big barrel. Unless the courts do something very unexpected, and the players sure hope they do, there will be no games until the players come crawling back on whatever terms the owners decree. Much like with the NHL. And the owners will extract a pretty high price. Two-four years from now, a whole boat-load of new players will have come out of college and the league could form without ANY of the current players!!

Maybe the courts can "force" some sort of settlement. IF not, the players are screwed. If you ain't got a job, you don't get paid. Most NBA players don't have a college degree, and don't qualify for much more than a burger-flippin' job. The difference in salary is noticeable.

It's not easy speculating the direction of two sides that are used to getting their way... Distant memories of failed negotiations bore the ABA...​

The ABA was formalized because the price was too high for growing cities to enter the elite league... they could start an ABA team for 1/2 of the cost of the expansion team.​

IMO, these pioneers came up with dramatic rule changes that offered a more free flowing offense and new strategies that matched the liberal lifestyle of the 60's... teams like NJ, Denver and Indian were born from the ABA... the list of future NBA stars that cut their teeth from the ABA is as long as your arm... just to name a few.. Artis Gilmore, Dr. J, Spencer Haywood (from U. of D), George McGinnis, Mel Daniels, Billy Cunningham etc....​

This revolution could happen again... but the money would not be the same... when all of the smoke and bravado settles the players will relinquish their demands... right now it's coming down to realizing that they will have diminishing returns... one year's loss vs 10 years of what the league is offering... unfortunately for the NBPA they are controlled by veterans that have limited years to waste... lastly the young players entering the league are faced with major reductions on their rookie contracts... in short all of the players are backed into a corner... the time is right to cut the losses and be glad they aren't the NFL or the NHL... As we have seen, not everybody is a die hard advocate of the product... it may not be too late to salvage loyalty interest...if you're lucky!​

I would not be surprised to see a new league formed if this thing does drag on for more than a year. Namely due to the disparity in the owners. Some like Miama, NY, Chic, LA, are dying to get the season started and would have gladly accepted the 53/47 split the players were initially asking for. Then others like Charlotte, Clev, Milw.. act like they do not want a season at all - some would have been dissapointed had the players said yes. I can't see how that kind of disparity can exist and I think there is a limit to the revenue sharing the larger markets will agree to.

At one point to the big boys get sick of watching their franchises waste away.

The owners are looking at cutting the top 40 salaries in the league. That's only about 6 percent of the players. The cuts would be drastic though with the top contract becoming something like 6 years at 60 million. If the league did this they would save well over 1 billion dollars over the next 6 seasons. Players would EVENTUALLY agree to this since this doesn't affect the vast majority of them, and certainly the fans don't think a 60 million dollar contract is anywhere near the poverty line. The goal now of the owners is to carve up the players union like a roast.

Click to expand...

I really thought that solving the lockout was this simple....

Unfortunately....To me, the last line is exactly what the owners tried to do....

Dec. 4 -- Sides meet for 11 hours, after which commissioner David Stern says it is more likely than not that there won't be a season. Dec. 23 -- Stern and players' union head Billy Hunter meet for five hours in Los Angeles at the office of agent Leonard Armato. Dec. 27 -- Sides meet for five hours in Denver, with the league making its "final" proposal. Jan. 4 -- Union presents its "final" offer to owners, and Stern says league might use replacement players in the 1999-2000 season. Jan. 5 -- NBA players begin arriving in New York on the eve of a scheduled vote by the union membership on whether to support the negotiating committee's rejection of the league's last proposal. Jan. 6 -- After a secret, all-night negotiating session, Stern and Hunter reach agreement to end the lockout the day before the league's "drop dead" date to cancel the season.

Thats the last lockout. They settled on Jan 6 1999 and still got 50 games in. Big difference though - this time Stern's "final offer" was met with a law suit. Seems like they were pretty close to a deal before that ultimatum that the next offer would be worse.

I am sure all parties are aware of when the last cut-off date was for a season back in 1999

Not sure if this was worth posting since we have been disappointing so many times before. Apparently they have been talking since Tuesday in a last ditch effort to save the Christmas games , Christmas games have historically been the start of the season for most casual fans so there is some urgency to try and save them . They were pretty close to a deal the last time they talked until Stern blew up the talks with his threats. This time the player lawyers are talking for the players so this may help to actually get something done since a lot of the emotion is removed from the equation.

NEW YORK -- NBA owners and players reached a tentative agreement early Saturday to end the 149-day lockout and hope to begin the delayed season on Christmas Day. Neither side provided many specifics but said the only words players and fans wanted to hear.

Stern said it was "subject to a variety of approvals and very complex machinations, but we're optimistic that will all come to pass and that the NBA season will begin Dec. 25."

Just scanning the new CBA points… comments in italics· The players will receive between 49-51 % of the BRI with the players receiving 60.5% of anything over a certain level... I would translate this as much more involvement from the players in marketing the product… let the fan ass kissing begin... aren’t we special :^)

· After a player finishes his rookie contract he is eligible to receive 30 % of the salary cap if he signs with his prior team and meets certain performance benchmarks: first, second or third team All-NBA two times; an All-Star starter two times; or a one-time MVP…. Translation, selfish players will be rewarded.

· Annual salary increases: 7.5 percent for Bird players; and 4.5 percent for non-Bird players…. Reading this as poor teams having a better chance of hanging onto their own guys.

· Midlevel- more $’s available for the teams under the cap… should be a better balance for the small markets.

· No reduction in rookie scale or minimum salaries…. This one surprises me since the rooks (and rooks to be) had the least voice in the negotiations.

· Sign & trade is the same as before… = Win for the stars… lose for teams wanting to hang onto them.

· The amnesty is in effect… this can be used anytime during the whole CBA (players and owners can opt out of the new CBA after 6 years)… So whoever is signed at anytime he can be removed from a teams cap... one time deal for the teams … but they still have to pay his salary… I see this as an advantage for big market teams.

One of the most significant points is still being discussed.... there are serious talks about kids only being draft eligible if they've played two years in college... this could hurt the Pistons with players like Drummond and Davis being pushed to the 12/13 draft.