Gold And Silver Trump US Equities In Q3 And Year-To-Date

With the combination of a strong quarter (week or two) for stocks, futures rolls (and CDS yesterday) and the OPEX / index re-weighting it seems we had a modest case of small doors, large crowds into the close today (S&P futures end 1pt above FOMC-day close). Volume picked up dramatically (NYSE highest in a year) as the Dow closed lower on a Friday for the first time in nine weeks! Treasuries outperformed - ending near the low yields of the week (having retraced all the post-QE move - down 10-15bps on the week) but Gold remained relatively bid ($1775) and Oil also rose in the last couple of days. VIX was unch but noisy thanks to OPEX (and remember it's still at a high premium to realized vol - not entirely complacent). Credit underperformed as risk-assets in general led stocks lower.

S&P 500 futures tumbled into the close and after-hours to their lowest close of the week (since last Thursday actually!)...

On the week Bonds rallied nicely, USD dropped modestly, Gold outperformed, and stocks rolled over into the close ending the week down...

Since FOMC, Oil has lost, Silver has won and Copper and Gold have tracked each other sideways to higher... even as USD strengthened...

FX markets had a panic-attack this morning as the red rectangle indicates in EURUSD which went full-retard in and around the US open. USD drifted higher all week...

On the quarter, Silver was the big winner (up ~26%) followed by Gold (up ~11%) both beating all the major US equity indices (though Europe beat Gold on the quarter)...

Some serious dispersion in US equity indices on the quarter...

Since the start of the year Gold and Silver are the overall winners...

Utes are the Q3 losers and Energy the winners...

As we noted earlier, Healthcare has been the post-Fed winner and GS/MS have been big losers - not exactly risk-on!

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart - VIX risk premium remains high - even though you are going to hear again and again that VIX is low. This does not mean that complacency is not there BUT it does iondicate that traders arfe more nervous than a low abslute VIX would infer. The lower pane is the forward premium over historical realized vol priced into volatility markets (the higher it is the more concerned in the short-term)

some of us believe the Saudis demand to get some of their payment in physical gold (not all of it, they will accept cash for the complete amount they expect to spend for planes, food and whatever, but for a part of what is left they want physical). As long as the price of gold is OK relative to the price of oil they are happy. If the price of gold rises they will try to increase the oil price to keep the number of ounces they want (per barrel shipped) steady. If gold rises too much before the election the Saudis (the major swing produser) could engineer a price increase. Obama would not like this.

If this theory is accurate look for supression of the gold price until after the election. After that the PPT can let some of the pressure off and allow gold to rise a bit.

The true value of gold will not be seen until the paper gold markets are gone, whether by explosion or by atrophy.

ever notice how the price of gold rises slowly but falls fast...and in odd ways that would not benefit someone trying to maximize profits...? just an observation...

I noticed something big happening today, for example. If you laid a see-through chart for gold over the chart for silver today, it would line up perfectly. Sure looks coordinated to me.

What's it going to take to get rid of the paper gold/silver markets? And, more importantly, how soon can it happen?

People have been saying for lo these many years that, any day now, it's going to happen -- the suppression/manipulation is finally going to fail, and the beach ball held under the water for so long is going to fly up above the surface. But it never does.

Good observation. The Saudis and central banks play these games over and over. The Saudis grab their dough ahead of elections: Oil ran up in the Spring because they knew they would have to bring it down prior to the election. The price of gold is largely manipulated by the central banks. When the mood suits them they drive it down where they want it, buy carefully, and sell fast.

With the continuing printing of US dollars by the govenment, the devaluation is sending the buying power into the toilet. Gold and silver will be more prominent in transactions. Utah already writing it in as legal tender with other states following. See http://www.goldandsilvercoininvesting.com/gold-is-money-take-2 for more. People ARE buying gold and silver. They may as well buy it from YOU! Any entrepreneurs out there? www.goldandsilverbizopp.com