Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Has Martine Aubry Thrown Her Hat in the Ring?

Today's stinging rebuke to the recent turn in the Hollande-Valls approach to governing features the name Martine Aubry in its headline, Among her fellow signatories are several of the people associated with the "primary of all the left" petition launched a couple of weeks ago. Tomorrow, the petitioners will hold a rally in Lille, and Aubry herself is scheduled to put in an appearance (although it is not clear that she will speak). Is she inching toward a candidacy? Sending a signal to Hollande? Attempting to pre-empt possible competitors on the left flank (such as Arnaud Montebourg, whose candidacy is already under way)?

A supporter of Montebourg (and backer of Aubry in 2012) assured me last week that Aubry had decided not to run. If she does run, the calculations of potential Montebourg supporters may change. Aubry would be an altogether more serious challenger than Montebourg, in my estimation. But does she really want to go for it? That remains the question, but it looks as though she may be preparing to get off the fence.

4 comments:

I am unsurprised that Aubry has gone ballistic at this precise time. Most of her career - including long before politics - took place in the Ministère du travail and she can claim with some degree of truth to be an acomplished labor market specialist. Also, her social catholic education likely makes her more sensitive to applauding the way Germany tries to uphold human values and relieves the plight of Syrian refugees of war. My only comment on Valls would be: it's ok to brag when you have something to show for it, rather less when your achievements are essentially hot air.

Mea culpa! I have misinformed you based on a quick glance at the headlines. Having now done more reading, I think Aubry said that there should be a primary in which someone of great stature such as herself (but apparently not her but maybe her) must run against Hollande to save what little remains of the Socialist Party. In any case, she thinks Hollande should go. Valls should go, too. Macron should go to Hell. But, this seems to be simply a reiteration of the Le Monde editorial that Art mentions. My mistake.Sorry.

I think I was right that Valls denounced Aubry as a socialist whose views have no place in the Socialist Party.

Valls thinks he's leading a great revolution to overthrow the "nanny state" that has prevented France from returning to her former greatness. I am waiting for Valls to begin one of his speeches by saying that a spectre is haunting Europe — the spectre of neoliberalism. All the socialist parties of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre.

From my point of view, major socialist leaders retreated to their home bases (towns, regions) in order to wait for better times to come. None of them wants to be crushed by both Juppé/Sarkozy and Le Pen. They just need to express their rejection of this failing Administration, plus personal hostility against Valls, always suspected of intending to liquidate the PS. So PS looks like agonizing SFIO in 1965 or 1969.

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I have been a student and observer of French politics since 1968. In that time I've translated more than 130 books from the French, including Tocqueville's Democracy in America and Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century. I chair the seminar for visiting scholars at Harvard's Center for European Studies and am a member of the editorial board of French Politics, Culture, and Society and of The Tocqueville Review/La revue Tocqueville. You can read some of my writing on French politics and history here and a short bio here. From time to time I will include posts by other students of France and French politics (accessible via the index link "guest"). My hope is that this site will become a gathering place for all who are interested in discussing and analyzing political life in France. You can keep track of posts on Twitter by following "artgoldhammer".