WCHA fan here, but I always love your thread. A few comments on the Bu situation. Using Whelan's DIY calculator,
1) If BU wins the series in 3, MC falls to .4991 without considering other results. That's good enough for me to say that it won't change unless there is some very special circumstance somewhere else.
2) You are correct in that that result for MC causes BU to lose some compares. All would not be lost, however.
3)One simple way for that to come back is if Dartmouth would defeat Union next weekend. That really gains BU 2, because they would re-win the Union compare, so it goes both ways. +1 for BU, -1 for Union, and that puts BU at #16. Of course, that's still "bubble"-"ish", so
4)Other possibilities to help BU in that situation are NoDame or UAF (who might play each other) or Wisconsin, all of which can flip without adversely affecting other things down the road.

Huge thanks.

Since the end of the RS, I had: a business trip to NYC, finishing my BerkeleyX Stats homework on the Acela, studying for a professional tech certification, taking the cert exam (passed), presenting at a conference, prepping for the conf the night before with my co-presenter, and I just finished my Stats midterm due at 7:00 am GMT. Oh, and the cert I earned, in combination with a prior cert I have, made me the first person in the world to get a new capstone certification that is just being released. Had to get the cert in and passed before the conf, since that was part of what we were talking about, so... no pressure.

That said, haven't been able to look at the PWR numbers going into the weekend yet. So, thanks.

Thoughts:

Yes, this is a Hockey East thread, but since BU is the only HE team right around the bubble, that's where I'm going to focus until/unless PC gets closer. Maybe next weekend, we can look at the seeds of the upper three if anyone sees anything interesting. The other three in the playoffs are either auto-bid or out.

Going forward, my discussion points are not assuming that BU will win. It's just that if they lose, the rest of the discussion is moot, as I expect that they would fall off the bubble. If someone wants to help out and follow that path, please jump in. I've got limited time, so I'll focus on what seems more likely to be of interest.

.4991 isn't irrecoverable in concept. I have seen teams pick up or lose 10-ish points after the QFs begin based on how fluid the SOS is at that point.

For those unfamiliar with estimating some game's impact on your RPI, not only does your own record count, but the records of the teams you played, and that they played. If you played a team more than once, the affect on your RPI is multiplied by that amount. Teams in your league have a lot of influence, but by the time it matters, only the league's collective OOC schedule/record will really matter - plus the exceptions noted below.

The reason for that is that even though you play everyone in your conf multiple times - in this case: HE, and three each - those are a net wash. For conference games you're not in, one of your 3-time-opponents wins, and one loses (or both tie). As far as conference play goes for your opponents - win, lose, or tie - it all comes out to .500. OOC, however, those games can be anywhere from 1.000 to 0.000.

Exceptions to the league impact are:

Conference foes even out each other's influence unless your team also played a team out of conference - usually in an in-season tourney. For example, BU and BC did not play in the Beanpot this year, but both played NU. If NU were still playing or in the hunt, their RPI would be more strongly raised or lowered by what BU or BC did than, say, UML or UNH (to pick two), because NU played BU/BC four times, while playing the others only three.

Playoff games within the conference impact a team's RPI for the same reason.

To the point: sure, MC would lose to BU in this scenario, but they will also have played them more often than anyone else in HE (5 or 6 times). That means that if BU goes on to win (or lose) the semi, that raises (or lowers) MC's strength-of-schedule more than if anyone else in HE were to win or lose. The better that BU, and BU's overall RPI do, the better MC's SOS does... five- or six-fold.

The same would apply to the final. At that point, BU would of course have the auto-bid, but - in theory - MC jumping up from non-TUC to TUC and adding 5 TUC wins to BU's record right when it actually matters might suddenly win a couple, or a few, extra pairs and move them from a 4 to a 3 seed, or even just move them away from playing a #1 overall to a #3 or #4 overall.

Also to be considered is the opponent's-opponents (OOP). For example, on BU's OOC schedule, they played Harvard and North Dakota twice this year. The results of those squads would impact Merrimack's numbers more than, say SLU, whom BU played just once. Of course, it does not help that Harvard (who also played MC in the RS) lost in three to Dartmouth last weekend, as they are now done.

Oddly though, since Dartmouth played Harvard three extra times and BU played Harvard twice, Dartmouth's ongoing success helps BU by slightly elevating their RPI - but at the same time, BU would like to get the pair back from DC that was lost when Dartmouth beat Harvard in that 3rd game, raising their RPI and dropping BU's. The RPI between the two is actually close enough that it could come down to SOS, even if both had the same results from here out. BU is playing MC who has a lower RPI than Union, Dartmouth's playmate this weekend, but BU could hope to be playing one (or two) of the top three in HE at the Garden while Dartmouth plays not-QU and maybe not-Yale.

Speaking of Union, they were a direct OOC opponent of MC's this year - twice. So while Dartmouth would be marginally affecting with their outcome, Union has more direct effect. Since you posted, #3 has already happened where BU has taken the Union pair. The irony is that Union winning might knock Dartmouth down, but then MC would drop below TUC by BU winning, which would give Union the BU pair, making it a pair-wash - except Union would then have the H2H PWR tb at the 16 spot on the bubble. Then again, two Union wins might pull MC closer to being a TUC again and BU taking that pair back. Maybe best for BU - as far as that series is concerned - is to sweep MC and for DC to beat Union in three - perhaps keeping Union from taking the pair, while dinging DC's RPI enough for BU to grab that as well.

Also of note, as referenced last weekend, BU had a chance to take the AK pair - which they currently lose - even if MC dropped off - if AK lost some more TUCs and/or if LSSU, who tagged a 1-3 on AK could bubble up over .5000. Well, on Sunday, the CCHA was not very kind. AK got taken out in three, but by non-TUC MSU, so that doesn't help BU. Also LSSU lost in three to BGSU, so that possible 1-3 addition to AK's TUC record isn't going anywhere.

In the fourth Sunday game (Harvard's previously mentioned loss to Dartmouth being the other), Alaska-Anchorage (a MC foe) lost to Denver (a BU foe). The difference there is that that was the end of the RS for the WCHA and AA gets to play again this weekend. Also falling in the ECAC playoffs last weekend, MC foes Colgate and Princeton. In the AHA, MC foe Army got taken out by Mercyhurst, but UConn lives on to fight Robt Morris for two.

In addition to the Union pair already flipping for BU, the Notre Dame pair has flipped as well. I don't see how BU takes back the AK pair at this point unless MC revisits TUC after losing two to BU. Wisco is doable if the Badgers lose and DC is possible, but - as noted above - getting DC without also flipping Union (at least after this weekend) could be threading the eye of a needle.

There are some other possibilities, however remote, like UVM bubbling up to a TUC and adding a 2-1-0 record to BU. More likely, what it comes down to is that a lot of the teams that could have helped MC stay up as a TUC got taken out last weekend, including MC themselves in their RS finale. Of the teams that are left, BU's own best helper with MC's RPI may very well be themselves.

Last edited by Todd; 03-15-2013 at 03:27 AM.

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

TC did acknowledge the home ice clinch snafu today during the UNH-PC game. He then mentioned that Our Fair Dickie admitted to also believing that 1 point would clinch home ice for us. Half the time it's said that they ignore the numbers and go for the win, which I'm fine with. But who else is annoyed that someone apparently did look at the numbers, but didn't actually investigate them?

TC did acknowledge the home ice clinch snafu today during the UNH-PC game. He then mentioned that Our Fair Dickie admitted to also believing that 1 point would clinch home ice for us. Half the time it's said that they ignore the numbers and go for the win, which I'm fine with. But who else is annoyed that someone apparently did look at the numbers, but didn't actually investigate them?

Todd. Congrats on your new (of the new) cert! I don't have any myself but I know how much effort and braincells can go into them. Hope the conference went well also.

If you're looking for something to cogitate, may I suggest 'What keeps Lowell in Manchester?' Actually, I think there's so much involved it's not feasible but it's making my brain hurt and you seem to find it fun so figured I'd ask.

182nd member to 2,000 posts"It's like putting lipstick on a pig." Chris MacKenzie says, speaking of the fresh paint on the visiting locker room at Alfond.KnowItAll: "I have little respect for the imagination and creativity of a person who can only think of ONE way to spell a word."

Todd. Congrats on your new (of the new) cert! I don't have any myself but I know how much effort and braincells can go into them. Hope the conference went well also.

If you're looking for something to cogitate, may I suggest 'What keeps Lowell in Manchester?' Actually, I think there's so much involved it's not feasible but it's making my brain hurt and you seem to find it fun so figured I'd ask.

UNH should end up a 2 or 3, which means that UML would need to be a 1 or 4 to end up in Manchester unless HE had five or more teams (I know, but see below). I can't get UML lower than 8th (and that's hard), so to be in Manchester, they're really hoping for a 1 seed.

In that case, they'd clearly get Manchester as UNH would be there as host and BC could draw equally well in either Providence or NH, but UML would obviously get better turnout up north. More importantly, HE would only get one 1-seed (at best) and someone has to be in NH. If UML is a 1, there's no one else with a shot at a #1 that would prefer NH, and UML would be a no-brainer.

So...

UML has a number of routes to the #3 or #4 overall spot. It seems that QU and MN will be #1 and #2 even if they lose their next games.

If Miami wins the CCHA, they should be #3, but if they lose, UML could move up to #3 with a HE title. Being #3 would give them enough buffer (even winning a 3-way RR with Miami and ECAC-titlist Yale) to protect them from some of the vulnerabilities at #4.

At #4 behind Miami, they would need to keep an eye on Yale and - depending on the configuration - some of the WCHA teams and whether Niagara does or does not win AHA (not for fear of chipping in an auto-bid, but for Niagara winning/not-winning pairs at the top).

If UML were to lose the HE final to BU (BC would knock UML down by winning) they could still be #4, as long as MN wins the WCHA (so that others don't) and Niagara doesn't win AHA (in which case, they'd pass UML - that's right, the AHA winner could be a 1-seed, instead of the reward for a 1-seed).

---
Obviously either PC or BU winning the HE title would put them in. Not surprisingly, both teams are so close on the bubble that the two wins themselves would be enough to put them in, so the auto-bid is nice, but not needed.

A PC win would probably put PC around 14th.

---
So here's an unexpected twist:

Even though I can't get MC to pop back up and give BU 5 TUC wins (maybe if QFs had gone to 3 games) - that's not the unexpected part - it looks as though BU has a reasonable chance at making the tourney just by winning the HE semis. Some keys would be: Notre Dame losing to OSU, Wisco not going deep, NoDak doing well to boost BU's SOS for their RPI, among others.

BU could get as high as a 13 by taking the title, needing the 2nd TUC win to get past Wisco and - along with MI dropping out of TUC - AK. But they could also be as high as 14th if they lose the title game to UML.

Here's the kicker: It's possible for BU to lose the final to PC and have both teams make the tourney. Since there are configurations where BU would be 14th or 15th when losing to UML, losing the pair - and some RPI points due to SOS diff between UML and PC - to PC still leaves some room for BU to be in. Since BU could end up with the pairs against Notre Dame and RPI, those could give them the tb advantage in 2- and 3-way breaks at the bubble.

Last summer, I was asked to be on the board of a local tech group. During the conf, a preliminary offer was extended for me to join the board of a well-known regional tech group - with perhaps more to go with that. Add in the reception to the information we prepped, the presentation given, and the new cert awarded... a pretty good day overall.

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

In that scenario used where both PC and BU make it, the bad news for both BC and UML is that they could both be going west, unless the NCAA decided to invoke the 5-team rule.

The reason for that is that in this setup, BC and UML are 2s (6 and 7t/8), but UNH is a 3 (9t/9). Yale (7t/7) is also a 2 and would be a better draw in RI than in NH - but there is an interesting choice the committee could make to take advantage of the 8-9 match-up and the 5 HE teams to get UML into Manchester as a 2.

In case you're wondering, Brown - not QU, Yale, or PC - is the host for the Providence regional. Still, the top 4 are likely to go: QU->RI, MN->GR, Miami -> OH, and NoDak -> NH because that's what's left. The #5 seed should play the #4 in NH, and that's Niagara. That would put #6 BC w/ #3 Miami in Toledo (knowing that, and given their history, would Miami throw the title game?), #7 Yale w/ #2 MN in Mich and #8 UML w/ #1 QU in RI.

Notre Dame 15t with high RPI, but out on clear pair differential. (RPI is only tb for RR tie)

Other than having to swap UNH into NH as host, if we started by sticking with finishing up the 1-8-9-16, 2-7-10-15, 3-6-11-14, 4-5-12-13, we'd get:

Providence:
QU v RPI
UML v UNH*

Grand Rapids:
MN v BU
Yale v SCSU

Toledo:
Miami v PC
BC v Mankato

Manchester:
NoDak v Western
Niagara v Denver

Now, if not for the host rule, Manchester would be - incredibly, with 5 HE teams in the tournament - a ghost town, so there'd definitely be some shuffling.

Since there are 5 teams from HE, then the following applies, if they choose to use it:
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.

----
What they could do, instead of just moving UNH to Manchester, is pick up the whole UML-UNH game and swap it in. It would preserve the integrity of the 8-9 matchup and boost attendance - plus guarantee one of the two in the final, to boot.

The problem now is that you swap two non-New-England teams into RI, leaving only one "local", in a year where seven New England teams made the tourney. Better yet, two eastern CTs and a RI - all in different bands - made it.

They could cycle instead of swap, meaning that they move the pair of UML-UNH into NH, and then move all the "middle" (2v3) games up a notch, that would put Yale into Providence. Even though it would take SCSU out of GR, it would replace them with Mankato when BC-Mank rolls in. Niagara-Denver would go to Toledo, which could work for Niagara fans.

That's what I think they would do. It would keep the integrity of the entire 2v3 setup. It would also be pretty good for the theoretical 1v2 finals. Considering that there was a tie for 7, 1 v 7 doesn't harm the overall #1. In fact Yale has a lower RPI than UML - in theory making them a weaker team - but won the H2H pair anyway. 2v6 and 3v5 aren't huge swings. 4v8 seems like a huge gain for the 4-seed, but they'd have to play the winner of two local favorites in the 8-9 game, so maybe not as good as it first looked.

The alternative would be to move just UNH in a swap with Denver, but if you look at what that leaves, the local fans would be horrified to see a Niagara-UNH first round pairing.

----
Another set of considerations is that with 4-seeds PC and BU out west and BC in either location, you run the risk of an all-HE final in the Great Lakes. Perhaps the only thing that is going to horrify GLI fans more than having to hear about the Beanpot non-stop in February is to have a BC-BU regional final arrive on their doorstep. Miami sure as hell isn't going to be happy about not one, but two HE teams in their back yard either.

One easy fix is to swap Western with BU since Toledo has a local (Miami), but Grand Rapids (and its attendance) would be starving for the only MI school in the tourney. That would also create a rematch of the pair that BU and NoDak played at the Taj MaHockey (tm) in November.

In that case, Manchester could have gone from no HE schools to three (if the UML-UNH game comes as a whole), so maybe if they can see that they're moving BU, they leave UML behind in RI... but having UML in Manchester and Yale in RI is pretty sweet. Even if UNH sells out the building, the arena can only sell a ticket once - but the atmosphere is better if everyone shows up and is into it.

It would also be cool to swap RPI and PC, but that does a disservice to the overall #1 by diminishing what was a clear home ice advantage and instead turning them into the visitors. Oh!... duh... but RPI and QU are both ECAC. Done and done.

So, that leaves us with:

Providence:
QU v PC
Yale v SCSU

Grand Rapids:
MN v Western
BC v Mankato

Toledo:
Miami v RPI
Niagara v Denver

Manchester:
NoDak v BU
UML v UNH

As a fan, I'm not psyched to see 3 HE teams in Manchester (and BU/NoDak a third time this season), but the NCAA has done similar things before.

Miami and two NY teams (one east, one west) in Toledo is OK. It's a long drive from RPI, but I think it's a pretty straight shot. Denver is flying somewhere regardless, so it might as well be Toledo.

Western is in GR along with two MN teams. BC has had enough success in the last decade that anyone buying tickets to a Regional should also recognize the name as a draw.

Providence somehow ended up with all three local-ish teams, which should make for a raucous crowd.

---
Putting the BU-fan cap on, I'd hate to see BU lose the HE final, of course, esp. since Parker is retiring, but if this was going to be the outcome, at least it could be a consolation prize.

As a college-hockey fan, and one from New England... and one that follows Hockey East, this would be pretty cool.

Last edited by Todd; 03-19-2013 at 02:19 AM.

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

For those of you following along with the BU 3-goal weirdness:
...Chinese water torture is also a "thing", right?

BU led NU 4-1 tonight before the 4-2 final.

New tally: 13 three-goal leads and 6 three-goal responses (by either team) in the 19 BU games since 12/30/12.

Originally Posted by Todd

BU's 5-0 final adds to the stack.

New tally: 14 three-goal leads and 6 three-goal responses (by either team) in the 20 BU games since 12/30/12.

Come on... isn't hockey closer than this? Every freaking night BU is scoring, or being scored on, in chunks.

All I know is that Merrimack better be scouting that emerging powerhouse duo of Moscatel and Ronan before showing up on Comm. Ave.

sigh...

Fri v MC, BU wins 3-0. (Three-goal lead? Check!)
Sat v MC, BU trails 2-3 before getting a 5-3 final with an ENG inside the final :05. (Three-goal response? Check!) The ENG even got scored by two different players, just to make sure the ref counted it.

New tally: 15 three-goal leads and 7 three-goal responses (by either team) in the 22 BU games since 12/30/12.

Remember that I only counted multiple three-goal leads in the same game by the same team once and the same with more-than-three be same as three, so this figure could be higher.

I guess for the BU fans, at least it has been BU doing the additions to the list of late, rather than giving them up.

I thought this was funny,... curious,... an oddity at first. But now it won't go away. Keeping track of this and the chicken at home games certainly gave plenty to focus on if the game dragged.

Still, I suppose I should stop complaining about 3-0 victories or coming from behind and getting an insurance goal late, right?

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

...and perhaps finally, because I'm not sure what other comments are coming and whether I'll have a chance to post between Friday's results and Saturday's starts, thanks for all the kind words throughout the last couple of weeks.

I've had a lot of stuff on my plate, but I know people look forward to knowing what's going on. Me too.

Since I'm going to have to go through it for myself - and we apparently can't count on the actual media outlets [cough] NESN [cough] - I might as well share. Even better, it helps me clarify for myself to have to explain it to someone else, which I'm going to do when I get to the rinks anyway (sorry for those who sit nearby, but you know the Qs are coming).

It occurred to me recently, I've been around USCHO just about since it started - back in the days when you had to type your own name and location in with each posting, yet somehow people could tell who everyone was just by how they wrote, if not by name. In fact, the original T1K started when another poster was trying to find me. Getting to 1000 was quite a feat at the time, since threads were anchored to be sorted by thread creation time, not most recent post, so threads scrolled into oblivion pretty quickly unless people searched for them explicitly.

I've met lots of great people, and some not, through these forums through the years. Some who I still see around, some who no longer post for various reasons, some who have always just lurked, and some who - sadly - have passed on.

For the last couple of years, however, this thread is pretty much the only reason I come onto the message boards anymore. Imagine how little sleep I'd get if I did this year 'round...

So, if we all have something more to say in the next little while, that's great, and you can tack this on to the end when it comes.

But in case I don't have anything else to post for this version of the thread (although I suppose there's at least one coda to wrap up the BU 3-goal saga), I didn't want to forget to say...

Good to see you all again, and I'll catch you with about six weeks to go next year, when we'll have 11 teams. Won't that be fun?

Last edited by Todd; 03-19-2013 at 02:26 AM.

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

...and perhaps finally, because I'm not sure what other comments are coming and whether I'll have a chance to post between Friday's results and Saturday's starts, thanks for all the kind words throughout the last couple of weeks.

I've had a lot of stuff on my plate, but I know people look forward to knowing what's going on. Me too.

Since I'm going to have to go through it for myself - and we apparently can't count on the actual media outlets [cough] NESN [cough] - I might as well share. Even better, it helps me clarify for myself to have to explain it to someone else, which I'm going to do when I get to the rinks anyway (sorry for those who sit nearby, but you know the Qs are coming).

It occurred to me recently, I've been around USCHO just about since it started - back in the days when you had to type your own name and location in with each posting, yet somehow people could tell who everyone was just by how they wrote, if not by name. In fact, the original T1K started when another poster was trying to find me. Getting to 1000 was quite a feat at the time, since threads were anchored to be sorted by thread creation time, not most recent post, so threads scrolled into oblivion pretty quickly unless people searched for them explicitly.

I've met lots of great people, and some not, through these forums through the years. Some who I still see around, some who no longer post for various reasons, some who have always just lurked, and some who - sadly - have passed on.

For the last couple of years, however, this thread is pretty much the only reason I come onto the message boards anymore. Imagine how little sleep I'd get if I did this year 'round...

So, if we all have something more to say in the next little while, that's great, and you can tack this on to the end when it comes.

But in case I don't have anything else to post for this version of the thread (although I suppose there's at least one coda to wrap up the BU 3-goal saga), I didn't want to forget to say...

Good to see you all again, and I'll catch you with about six weeks to go next year, when we'll have 11 teams. Won't that be fun?

Many thanks Todd, always a pleasure reading this thread. And next year there'll be new tiebreakers too, because surely you know Notre Dame abides by their own set of rules!

Even with all of the upsets going on, through the middle of the night last night it was still possible for BU to make the NCAAs with only a semi win.

Early on, it was becoming clear that the possibility of a BU v PC final was now going to be a play-in game, as opposed to the possibility of a 5-team HE contingent in the NCAAs. With PCs loss to UML - and the Friars dropping off the NCAA bubble - that re-opened the door to BU making the NCAAs with a win over BC, but a loss to UML.

The relentless march of upsets finally closed the last door when Union knocked off Yale in the ECAC nightcap. Niagara losing hurt more that they didn't take up to three pairs from teams around BU - like Notre Dame, if they were to lose to OSU - than that a 2nd AHA team was making it.

Ultimately, so many teams in the middle of the potential NCAA tournament field lost that a couple of things happened, relative to HE:

- BU now needs to beat UML to make the tourney.

Oddly, it is now possible for BU to be a 3 seed, because even though they can't get higher than 13th by PWR, there could be up to four lower-seeded upset auto-bid winners. If CC, Brown, and either OSU or Michigan all won, they - plus AHA winner Mercyurst or Canisius - would be lower seeds than BU. BU would be the fifth-from-the-bottom auto-bid and move up from 13th rank to 12th seed and into the 3rd band.

Ironically, in what looked like the a year that the AHA would get two bids (when Niagara earned an at-large bid the first time - and took out UNH - there was no auto-bid for the conf), it would actually be all of the other conferences having upsets that would take out Niagara (would would be 12). Oh, how the tables have turned.

- With all of the other mid-tier (low 1s to high 3s) teams losing, there are only four teams alive for the 3 and 4 seeds. (QU and MN will be the 1 and 2.) The four teams are Miami, UML, BC, and Notre Dame.

Miami will almost certainly be one of those top seeds, but unclear whether they would be 3 or 4 overall. Notre Dame will almost certainly not, but there is a window. UML obviously controls its own fate, but if they lose, they and BC will be looking at: the WCHA Final and the OSU v Notre Dame CCHA semi, and the ECAC Conso.

---
If Notre Dame beats Michigan, the Irish will be a 1 seed. If they win, but beat Miami, they will be probably a 3 seed. The Irish apparently need Michigan to maintain their recent appearance as a TUC, and a loss in the semi will drop the Wolverines back out.

If Miami wins, they are 3.

If UML wins, they should be a 1 seed and BC will not be.

If BU wins, there are a lot of configurations.

---
If Notre Dame beats Mich and UML wins, UML is 3 and ND 4. That is one of the few scenarios that makes Miami a 2 seed.

Even if they lose to BU, UML can own the pairs from both Miami and BC, but lose up to four below them. Owning those two pairs (in combination with BC also losing a second pair to Miami and Miami losing a second pair to Robt Morris) means that UML could afford to lose two of the lower four and still take a tb.

Yale beating the Q in the ECAC Conso takes a pair from UML, as would Wisco beating CC - either of which could be key in the Hawks beating out BC (or BC and Miami) for a 1 seed. AK and SCSU would also have their UML pairs.

Other than those very specific scenarios, I think Miami is a 1 seed even if they lose to Michigan.

---
If you now flip those, where Notre Dame doesn't beat Michigan, and UML doesn't beat BU, you now have BC and UML fighting it out for the 4 seed.

Notre Dame not winning the CCHA (whether losing to Miami or Mich) gives a pair back to Miami and UML, but keeps the pair with BC - giving UML and Miami a leg up. Notre Dame losing to OSU would result in BC taking that pair and we would be back to the 3-way RR - which still puts BC on the bottom, but lets them jump up if UML loses another pair (see Yale and Wisco).

If the Irish beat OSU (taking the pair from BC), but lose in the final (leaving pairs in the hands of Miami and UML), then BC would need both Yale and Wisco to win to jump over UML. In that setup, if Wisco loses, the Yale win would put UML, BC, and Yale in a RR. With each having a 1-1 split, that would be decided on RPI and UML would get 4th.

----
Take that same scenario but have ND beat Miami, it could create a 4-way RR for 3rd, with UML and Miami microscopically apart on RPI and that being the deciding factor. Yes, Notre Dame still takes the Miami, UML and BC pairs, but other pairs in between level them all out again. In that case, it will most likely fall UML, Miami, BC, Yale - but in the single instance where Canisius and Union both won, Miami would edge out UML on RPI. That would take the pair, moving Miami above BC/Yale and UML below them, effectively dropping UML to the bottom of that stack and moving everyone else up a notch.

----
Other than that specific setup, Brown v Union, Merchurst v Canisius, and a possible Mich v OSU CCHA final all seem to have no impact on the top seed at this point.

----
I cannot get Mankato or Denver out, nor can I get RPI in.

I also can't find a way to get Western past the auto-bids. Ditto, Robert Morris (see: Niagara, irony above).

Yale, SCSU, Niagara, Wisconsin are all still vulnerable.

----
I think that BU is the only team that needs the win, but not (necessarily) the auto-bid that comes with it to get in.

Yale could get in even if they lose the ECAC consolation and Wisco could get in even if they lose the WCHA title to CC.

Anyone else still playing either requires the auto-bid to get in, or is in regardless and is playing for position and pride.

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

Fri v MC, BU wins 3-0. (Three-goal lead? Check!)
Sat v MC, BU trails 2-3 before getting a 5-3 final with an ENG inside the final :05. (Three-goal response? Check!) The ENG even got scored by two different players, just to make sure the ref counted it.

New tally: 15 three-goal leads and 7 three-goal responses (by either team) in the 22 BU games since 12/30/12.

Remember that I only counted multiple three-goal leads in the same game by the same team once and the same with more-than-three be same as three, so this figure could be higher.

I guess for the BU fans, at least it has been BU doing the additions to the list of late, rather than giving them up.

I thought this was funny,... curious,... an oddity at first. But now it won't go away. Keeping track of this and the chicken at home games certainly gave plenty to focus on if the game dragged.

Still, I suppose I should stop complaining about 3-0 victories or coming from behind and getting an insurance goal late, right?

New tally: 16 three-goal leads and 8 three-goal responses (by either team) in the 23 BU games since 12/30/12.

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

You are amazing (and I mean that in a good way). Very enjoyable and fascinating reading...BUT...this is why I have been saying for the past three weeks that BU needs to focus on one thing - WINNING! It's absolutely insane to even try to calculate all the permutations and since they couldn't control anything but what they did anyway, I was trying to get people to stop focusing on ways they could sneak in via the PWR. So for better or worse now, it all comes down to winning ONE MORE TIME!!! No "distractions." Which is the way it should be. 100% focus and commitment! Go BU!!

So Lowell is going to be a #3 overall, regardless of the Irish-Wolverines CCHA final Final. Pretty deservedly so, too, IMO. With just three losses since their sweep at the hands of UNH on Nov 30-Dec 1, UML has a 22-3-1 record going back to early December.

For perspective:

Originally Posted by Todd 3-08-13

One month ago from tonight, UMA had 15 points and UML had 18.

If UML is going to lose one weekend every six weeks, wouldn't you want it to be this one?

And you could see it coming:

Originally Posted by Todd 03-03-13

(Spoiler alert:

Despite losing by three goals three times in the RS, UML beats UNH in the HE final, en route to Pittsburgh.

Oh, and...

the Rs in redrum are backwards,
she's a dude,
he's dead already,
the boat sinks,
Rosebud is a sled.)

OK. I got the opponent wrong, but I did call UML winning the HE final three weeks ago. At the time, there was no way to predict that PC and BU were going to have better runs at the end than BC and UNH. You could tell that BC and UNH weren't playing well(see post to follow), but not that PC - and especially BU, who was in a 4-9-2 skid (or worse, 2-7-2 with a 2-2-0 on the front end) - would turn it up.

The question is going to be whether UML will follow up on the rest of that prediction and go to Pittsburgh. (Why am I hearing unfairly-disgruntled BU fans chanting at an under-producing-because-he-is-playing-through-injury Ryan Whitney in my head?)

---
With Brown (the host in Providence, and fellow ECAC-er) losing in the ECAC final, that leaves #1 overall QU free for the short trip to Providence. That, and the fact that host UNH will not be a 4 seed, will leave Manchester available for #3 UML to rule as the 1 seed there.

Minnesota will be #2 and the 1 seed in Grand Rapids.

---
If Notre Dame wins, they will be the last 1 seed and #4 overall in Toledo.

St. Cloud 13, Wisco 14t/14, Yale squeaking in at 14t/15, and 16 Western bounced by AHA auto-bid, Canisius.

BU is three pairs shy at 18th and PC is another three pairs back at 22nd.

----
If Michigan wins the CCHA, Notre Dame drops to 8 and everyone from Miami to NoDak moves up a notch. Miami fills the last 1 seed in Toledo at #4.

BC 5, UNH 6t/6 with pair over 6t/7 NoDak, Notre Dame 8.

The bottom half are the same except that Michigan's auto-bid bounces Yale at 15.

----
Default pairs with an Irish win:

RI:
QU - Canisius
NoDak* - Denver

MI:
Minn - Yale
UNH* - Niagara

NH:
UML - Wisco
BC* - Mankato

OH:
Irish - St. Cloud
Miami - Union

Obviously UNH has to move to NH. Since they also have to break up the NoDak-Denver WCHA game and would prefer to keep Miami in Ohio, move BC to RI and NoDak to MI to the Minn bracket, that's what they'll do. I think they'd leave that.

Yale for Canisius is also possible, but that would kind of disservice the #1 overall, so I don't think they'll do it.

RI:
QU - Canisius
BC - Denver

MI:
Minn - Yale
NoDak - Niagara

NH:
UML - Wisco
UNH - Mankato

OH:
Irish - St. Cloud
Miami - Union

---
For a Mich win:

RI:
QU - Canisius
Irish - Denver

MI:
Minn - Michigan
NoDak - Niagara

NH:
UML - Wisco
UNH - Mankato

OH:
Miami - St. Cloud
BC - Union

UNH falls naturally to NH and Miami to OH. NoDak is in MI with Minn. Michigan at #15 meets #2 Minn in Grand Rapids. It hurts Minn to have to face Mich in their home state, but I don't think they'd swap Canisius for Mich and kill the dream attendance boost in GR.

They might think of swapping BC and Irish for boosts to attendance in both sites, but a 5 for an 8 is a big switch - as much as Miami might like skipping Hockey East (esp. Boston), for as long as possible.

I think they could leave this as it falls and send it out.

Having only QU and the name-brand Irish in Catholic Providence might be worrisome, but - as noted - a 5-for-8 swap is tough. Maybe they'll look at "but Notre Dame was almost a 1 seed" and pull that trigger.

We'll see...

---
Comparing the two, NH is the same in both.

MI is the same, with the exception of either Yale or Mich making the tourney.

If they pull the BC for Irish swap if Irish are 8th, then RI is the same in both...

... and OH has the same attendants, but Miami and Irish swap first round opponents.

That means they could be making travel arrangements before the CCHA is done, with the lone holdout being a bus ride from Ann Arbor - or a plane ride from New Haven - to get to Grand Rapids.

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

FWIW, I wrote this analysis to some BU fans as part of a discussion about "who would you rather face in the playoffs?" when the seedings were such a jumble late in the season.

Just observations about how BC and UNH were playing at the time. Use your own judgement.

Originally Posted by Todd 03-05-13

BC is hurt and without much fanfare, has been playing kind of iffy (outside of the Beanpot) ever since Jerry was on the brink of the record. They lost their first game, but then won 10-straight before meeting us for the home-and-home. With the possibility of Jerry getting the all-time record against BU on home ice, they cold only manage a split and a tied [all-time wins] record. Over the next month, they went 1-1-2, and the "win" that broke the record is so bad that it doesn't count in their RPI because it would pull it down. Yes. They won the Beanpot and we cratered. While they do not have a losing [season series record] against any of the Home Ice Eligible teams, for the 2nd semester they have faced UNH (1-1-1), PC (1-1), UML (0-1), MC (1-1). Against the bottom 4 in the league, they are: UVM (1-0), UMA (0-1), ME (0-2), NU (1-0). So not only are they a game-under-.500 against the top of the league, they are also a game-under against the bottom. Pull out a five-week stretch of October-November and the Beanpot, and they're a pretty sh__ty-to-meh hockey team. Of course, we lost both Beanpot games and have been spotty all season, not just the second semester. Who's to say who wins a rivalry game played in Boston at either site? I'm just pointing out that BC is beatable by somebody, even if it's not us. Unless, of course, they get bored during the regular season and wake up when it's playoff time.

UNH? Also fading. Hard. Those benchmark UML losses were the H2H weekend with UNH. Since then UML has only lost a pair (on the same weekend). Also since then, UNH has not won on consecutive nights. The closest they have come is three points from UMA last weekend and from UVM the weekend before. Other than that, their 2nd semester has faced BC (1-1-1), PC (0-2-1), MC (1-2-0) and NU (1-0-0). So UNH was two games under .500 in the league for the 2nd semester before their pair of 3-point weekends drew them even. Their best record against the top teams[*] is a three-game split with BC, who has also played like crap.

*Of course, UNH did spank UML by three goals each time and UML ended up being the tippy-top of top teams. They also beat BU 2 of 3. But all six of those games were in the first semester - in fact, the last of the five of the wins was December 1st - and these comments were about the second semester.

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

HE final: 1-0 UML. No addition to the string, but we came in with a one-over cushion

New tally: 16 three-goal leads and 8 three-goal responses (by either team) in the final 24 BU games of the 2012-2013 campaign.

That works out to an average of one (of either) per game.

That's just weird.

But wait!

There's more...

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

If BU had lost/thrown one of the QF games, MC's RPI with a record of 16-17-6 would have been about .4984. Not enough to make them a TUC.

If instead, MC had won one more game that they lost - like, say, the RS finale against UMA (which I was saying would have given them enough of a buffer to lose to BU and still be a TUC) - their RPI with a record of 16-16-6 would have been about .5016. A TUC.

With a 5-0-0 (MC winning on their own, not in a QF v BU) added to their current TUC record, BU would have added the following pairs that they ended up losing: AK, WMU, Mankato, Notre Dame (even with the Irish winning the CCHA).

Adding those four pairs to BU's current 13, those 17 pairs would situate BU between #13 SCSU's 18 pairs and tied-for-#14 Wisco and Yale with 16 each.

In the case where Notre Dame wins the CCHA, that would bump Yale off the bottom of the stack and insert BU at 14, Wisco at 15 and Canisius at 16.

Notre Dame would lose a pair, but still win the 3-way RR with Miami and BC and there would be status quo at the 3/4/5 seeds. Mankato dropping a pair would move them from atop the Union tie at 11 to under the SCSU tie at 13.

---
However, if Michigan wins the CCHA, there would be three auto-bids below BU (Canisius at 16, Mich at 15 and Wisco at 14. That would leave SCSU/Mankato safe at 13, but knock BU off at 14.

---
Now, to be clear, I didn't do an analysis of any of the other teams that might have been impacted by playing Merrimack. You can ripple these through the PWR on your own if you like: Merrimack played Union twice and split (1-1-0). BC and PC were 1-1-1. UNH was 1-2. UML was 2-1.

... and Alaska was 1-0 vs MC, which takes the pair back from BU. The schedule giveth, and the schedule taketh away.

That changes things.

---
If BU has one less pair (add 3 not 4 -> total 16 not 17), then they fall into the tie with Wisco and Yale. They lose the pairs (and tb) to both. They come out the bottom and they, not Western, are the team dumped by Canisius - even if Notre Dame wins. If Michigan wins, they are further under the bubble.

---
So here's the only scenario where MC being a TUC could have made a difference for BU (deep analysis of MC's impact on others aside):

If MC had won one more RS game, BU could still be looking at the tourney with an Irish CCHA title - as long as that winning game was against Alaska. Take away the Alaska win over MC and the pair goes back to BU.

So BU being out right now - aside from their own winning and losing - could also be said to come down to Merrimack losing a two-goal lead to Alaska in October with Alaska scoring three power-play goals in the second for a 3-2 final.

You recognize what that is right?

A three-goal comeback!

Has M. Night Shyamalan been writing this thread this year?

I've been inexplicably following this bizarre trend in BU games for weeks - [whisper]I see three-goal scoring clumps...[/whisper] - and BU's NCAA fate (and the end of Parker's 40-season tenure) may come down to that?

Ultimately, of course, all BU had to do was win one more game of their own and they would be in, so they have no one to look to but themselves.

Still, I tells ya... You can't make this stuff up, because no one would believe you.

On that note...

I'm out!

[drops mic and exits stage]

The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion... Scarlet - What he said.brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eekTA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good pointPuck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...Bob Gray - Very well said Todd. Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!