When the B.C. Liberal government unveils its updated climate plan in the next week or two, the critical question of whether the province’s carbon tax will increase (and when) will not be answered.

In a recent interview, B.C. Environment Minister Mary Polak revealed that a provincial decision on carbon pricing is not likely until after the federal government has made its own decision on pricing, possibly late this year.

A federal working group on carbon pricing is not scheduled to report back until October.

“We know that if we are going to get to the kind of emission reductions that we need — it’s not just us, it’s anywhere in Canada, anywhere in the world — carbon pricing and increasing carbon pricing has to be involved. You can’t get there without it. The question for us is: when and how much?” said Polak.

“But if you are talking about a tax measure, ministers of finance, ours included, really struggle with the idea of tinkering around with it at a time when you don’t know what the federal (strategy) is going to look like.”

Despite a recommendation six months ago from a provincial government-appointed committee to begin aggressively increasing the carbon tax beginning in 2018, the B.C. Liberals’ cautious approach brings into stark relief the difficult questions they face in updating the province’s climate plan.

How do they get greenhouse gas reductions back on target, work within a new federal framework, and ensure the B.C. economy is not unduly harmed?

That was the challenge its own committee of government, business, First Nation, community, environmental and academic representatives faced when it delivered 32 wide-ranging recommendations last November.

The 17-member committee addressed the challenge by recommending annual increases in the carbon tax starting in 2018, offset by measures such as a one-per-cent reduction in the provincial sales tax to six per cent. The PST on business and industry electricity rates would also be eliminated.

Businesses, however, gave the recommendation to raise the carbon tax a lukewarm reception.

The recommended $10-a-year increases would double the carbon tax by 2020 and push it to $160 per tonne of carbon emissions by 2030, far outstripping the current level in other jurisdictions in North America. B.C.’s carbon tax has been frozen at $30 per tonne since 2012.

The chief concern of business interests is that B.C. is getting ahead of other jurisdictions, which could make industry uncompetitive.

B.C.’s nascent LNG industry, represented on the climate action committee by the BC LNG Alliance (which includes companies such as Shell, Chevron and Malaysian state-controlled Petronas), did not endorse the carbon increase.

The Business Council of B.C., which represents 250 major companies in the province including energy heavyweights Suncor and Encana, has argued that reduction targets set nearly a decade ago are too ambitious and the province should not increase its carbon tax until other jurisdictions catch up.

But there is no escaping the need for new initiatives to reduce emissions if the province wants to meet its far-reaching targets.

The B.C. Liberals, which have touted themselves as climate-change leaders, will not meet an eight-year-old legislated target for 2020 of reducing carbon emissions by one-third over 2007 levels.

That calls for a 22-million-tonne drop by 2020 from the 66 million tonnes produced in 2007.

B.C.’s emissions have come down slightly to 64 million tonnes in 2013 (the latest B.C. estimate available), but reductions will need to be even greater than 22 million tonnes because the economy is expanding and, with it, carbon emissions.

That is why the committee appointed by the Clark government suggested a new target of 40 per cent by 2030. That would mean driving down greenhouse gas emissions to 39.5 million tonnes.

The long-range legislated target of an 80-per-cent reduction by 2050, to 13 million tonnes, also remains.

Insights West pollster Mario Canseco said the B.C. Liberal government finds itself in a tough spot: They have created high expectations on reducing greenhouse gases, but do not want to sidetrack the economy or jeopardize plans for a new LNG export industry.

One major new LNG plant could add as much as 10 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions a year, a significant increase.

The committee recommended switching to electricity to power natural gas processing plants and pipelines, but that would require significant capital investment, including new transmission lines. LNG plants would also need to transition to electricity over time.

“The economy is good. We are in much better shape than many other provinces. If you start to tamper with that on the basis of environmental policy, you risk alienating the base that has supported you,” said Canseco.

That is a key consideration with a provincial election just 11 months away, he said.

One of the issues the B.C. Liberals, and other political parties, must contend with is that, according to opinion polling, interest in the environment has slipped.

When then-Premier Gordon Campbell introduced the province’s climate plan in 2007 — when he was rubbing elbows with California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger — the environment was the top issue of concern for voters.

However, it has since been supplanted by the economy and jobs, said Canseco.

The shift in opinion may help explain why the B.C. Liberals have been sitting on the committee’s 32 recommendations for six months.

Polak, the environment minister, said the government is not delaying the release of an updated plan, but has taken more time to consider public feedback to the committee’s recommendations. She said they also needed to work with the federal government after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced there would be a price on carbon.

Polak said B.C.’s updated plan will be substantive and detailed, with an analysis of emission reductions.

The committee recommended reductions by 2030 of 6.3 million tonnes a year in transportation, 8.4 million tonnes in industry, and 3.4 million tonnes in the building sector. Polak confirmed the province will aim for reductions in all areas, but noted it will not necessarily adhere to the 32 recommendations.

Seven of the 17 members of the committee, including all three environment members and two of three First Nation representatives, said in an open letter last month that the B.C. government should not delay or scale back its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Industry representatives did not sign the letter.

The letter noted the federal government had placed renewed emphasis on climate action, adding that now is the time for B.C. to articulate its next steps.

This week, 16 environmental groups and companies that produce hydro, wind and solar power released an open letter calling on the premier to regain B.C.’s position as a climate leader.

Clean Energy Canada executive director Merran Smith said the province must implement all 32 recommendations — particularly the carbon tax increases — in order to meet its targets. “You can’t cherrypick from amongst those,” she said.

Smith noted that other provinces are also taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emission, including Ontario and Alberta.

A Pembina Institute report released this month says that despite B.C.’s claims of being a climate-change leader, it is lagging behind on commitments.

While Alberta, Ontario and Quebec are each committed to reducing emissions by more than 20 per cent by 2030 over 2014 levels, B.C. would see a rise of 39 per cent, according to the Pembina analysis.

Smith also argued the existing carbon tax had not harmed the B.C. economy in comparison to other provinces. That would not change even if the carbon tax increases rapidly, according to computer modelling undertaken on behalf of the committee, the results of which are included with their recommendations.

Instead, Smith is concerned that B.C., and Canada, are falling behind in investing in renewable energy, a conclusion spelled out in a report Clean Energy Canada released this month.

The Business Council of B.C. has argued, however, that the province’s initial greenhouse gas targets were unrealistic and didn’t take into consideration that B.C. was already a low emitter of carbon on a per-capita basis.

Alberta and Saskatchewan have significantly higher rates of carbon emission output per capita than B.C., which ranks about the same as Ontario and Quebec, according to Statistics Canada data.

B.C. should be given credit for its lower-carbon-intensive economy, with most electricity supplied by hydro power, said Business Council of B.C. president Greg D’Avignon.

He said business is not opposed to a carbon tax, only that the province needs to be careful it does not get ahead of other jurisdictions and, as result, create an uncompetitive business environment.

“What we’ve said is the carbon tax can go up, but it’s got to go up in lock-step and parity with other jurisdictions because we are still going to be ahead of most other places five years from now,” said D’Avignon.

He said there should also be a consideration of items such as tax incentives for investments that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, perhaps similar to a program to reduce acid rain in the 1980s.

Other key recommendations from the climate action committee appointed by Premier Christy Clark, released Nov. 27, 2015:

• Target the transportation sector to reduce greenhouse gases by 30 per cent by 2030, setting a target of electric vehicles sales of 30 per cent, reducing carbon in fuel by 20 per cent, and encouraging the switchover to natural gas/propane in commercial transport.

• Set a target of 50-per-cent emission reduction in buildings by 2030.

• Create a task force to research B.C.’s competitive advantages and potential growth areas in a low-carbon economy.

• Amend in law B.C.’s environmental assessments to include the social cost of carbon, and increase the target for clean energy from electricity to 100 per cent from 93 per cent.

• Reduce vented and fugitive methane emissions by 40 per cent within five years.

• Review the climate plan every five years with the support a multi-stakeholder committee.

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