*[[United States House of Representatives elections in Illinois, 2014|Illinois]] - March 18, 2014

*[[United States House of Representatives elections in Illinois, 2014|Illinois]] - March 18, 2014

===Five House primaries to watch===

===Five House primaries to watch===

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''Politico'' published a list in August 2013 of the five primaries to watch in 2014. They included:<ref name="five">[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/house-of-representatives-primary-elections-95315.html ''Politico,'' "5 House primaries to watch," Accessed August 8, 2013]</ref>

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In August 2013, ''Politico'' published a list of the five primaries to watch in 2014. They included:<ref name="five">[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/house-of-representatives-primary-elections-95315.html ''Politico,'' "5 House primaries to watch," Accessed August 8, 2013]</ref>

A total of 470 seats in the U.S. Congress (35 Senate seats, including two special elections, and all 435 House seats) are up for election on November 4, 2014.

Heading into the election, Democrats control the U.S. Senate while Republicans are the majority in the U.S. House. For Republicans to regain the majority in the Senate, they need to net six seats and retain control of the 14 seats currently held by a Republican. For Democrats in the House, a pick up of 17 seats is needed.[1]

U.S. Senate

The 33 Class II U.S. Senate seats are up for election. Of those 33 seats, 20 are currently held by Democrats and 13 by Republican senators. Additionally, two special elections will take place in 2014 to fill vacancies that occurred during the 113th Congress (Hawaii and South Carolina). Both of these special elections will also take place on November 4, 2014, for a total of 35 Senate elections.

For Republicans to gain control of the Senate, they will need to pick up six seats currently held by Democrats and maintain control of all Republican seats up for re-election. Unfortunately for Democratic incumbents, seven of their seats up in 2014 are in states carried by Republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election. If the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) remains a major issue heading into the midterm elections, Democrats face an uphill battle for the current blue seats in red states.[5]

This map shows the Senate seats up for election in 2014. The red and blue colors indicate whether the seat is currently held by a Republican or a Democrat, respectively.

Race ratings

Washington Post

For the 2014 election cycle, The Washington Post will release periodic lists of the 10 Senate seats most in danger of changing control in 2014. Their December 2013 rankings are below, along with their August 2013 ranking of the race in parentheses:[6]

10. Georgia & Michigan: "Last quarter, Georgia Democrat Michelle Nunn and Michigan Republican Terri Lynn Land both showed that they can raise money. Both are underdogs who need circumstances to fall in their favor to have a good shot at winning. The key for them is to do everything they can to put themselves in a strong position leading up to the election in case the door is open. (Previous ranking: 10)"[6]

9. Iowa: "None of the Republican candidates put up impressive fundraising numbers last quarter, while Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley’s money machine kept on churning. If state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) wants to distinguish herself in the crowded GOP field, she is going to have to pick up the pace. (Previous ranking: 9)"[6]

8. North Carolina: "The air war is heating up already. Americans for Prosperity recently hit Sen. Kay Hagan (D) with an ad tying her to President Obama while Senate Majority PAC came to her defense with a spot saying those who are attacking her tried to shut the government down. North Carolina Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger (R) won’t run, which is good news for state House Speaker Thom Tillis, albeit not unexpected news, either. Tillis still has to deal with tea party candidate Greg Brannon, who is dealing with his own issues, like potential plagiarism. (Previous ranking: 8)"[6]

7. Kentucky: "The willingness of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) to negotiate an end to the shutdown showdown seemed to indicate that he is less worried about his primary challenge than many people may have thought. Indeed, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes looks like the bigger worry for McConnell at this point, especially after she put up a huge third quarter fundraising number. We’ll be watching to see whether the Senate Conservatives Fund endorsement of Matt Bevin (R) does anything to help him move the needle against McConnell, against whom he’s made little progress. (Previous ranking: 7)"[6]

6. Louisiana: "GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy’s disappointing fundraising haul and SCF’s endorsement of Rob Maness (R) was turbulence the GOP did not need as it looks to unseat Sen. Mary Landrieu (D). But Landrieu, like other red state Democrats, will have to deal with the fallout from the rollout of Obamacare. Still, the GOP’s issue here and the growing sense among strategists that Landrieu could be a tough out moves Louisiana down the line one spot. (Previous ranking: 5)"[6]

5. Alaska: "Former Alaska attorney general Dan Sullivan (R) recently made his campaign official, putting him in the mix with Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who announced a bid this summer, and disastrous 2010 nominee Joe Miller, who has filed papers to run. A rough primary would be welcome news for Sen. Mark Begich (D). (Previous ranking: 6)"[6]

4. Arkansas: "Ads pegged to the government shutdown in this race illustrated how both political parties will seek to use the standoff to their advantage. Meanwhile, competitive House races and a competitive governor’s race make Arkansas an interesting state to watch, and a coordinated Democratic effort could boost the chances of Sen. Mark Pryor (D). Still, Pryor remains the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent on the map. (Previous ranking: 4)"[6]

3. Montana: "Republicans landed the recruit they wanted this week when Rep. Steve Daines entered the race. Democrats, meanwhile, are rallying around Lt. Gov. John Walsh, who faces a primary against former lieutenant governor John Bohlinger (D). Bohlinger raised eyebrows when he compared the tea party to the Taliban. This is a must-win race for Republicans hoping to win back the majority. So far, it’s been going well for them. (Previous ranking: 2)"[6]

2. West Virginia: "It’s been nearly a year since Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) became one of the first high-profile Republicans to announce for the Senate this cycle. It’s been a good decision for her so far. Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) entered the race after numerous other Democrats passed. Capito is in the driver’s seat in a state where Obama is woefully unpopular. (Previous ranking: 2)"[6]

1. South Dakota: " The seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Tim Johnson (D) remains the GOP’s best opportunity for a pickup. After sputtering at first as a fundraiser, former governor Mike Rounds has put together two straight $600,000+ quarters. (Previous ranking: 1)"[6]

August 2013

An August 2013 Politico report reported that the 27 incumbents running for re-election in 2014 had together raised about $125 million by the end of June 2013.[20] The report also found that 2014 may be the most expensive midterm election to date, pointing to the fact that the total amount raised for incumbents seeking re-election is $30 million more than at the same point in 2012 and on par with the amount they had raised in 2010.[20]

DSCC and NRSC

Fundraising

October 2013: The DSCC outraised their GOP counterpart, the NRSC, by one million dollars in October 2013. The DSCC raised $4.8 million compared to the NRSC's $3.8 million. This was the organization's best off-year October in their history.

At that time, the DSCC had raised $14 million more than the NRSC, a total of $43.5 million raised. They reported $11.1 million cash on hand. However, the organization was also carrying $6.2 million in debt. The NRSC had $5 million cash on hand at the end of October 2013.[21]

November 2013: The DSCC raised $5.1 million in November, while the NRSC raised $3.2 million during the same period.

This left the NRSC with $6.4 million cash on hand. The DSCC had $12 million cash on hand, however, the organization was still carrying $5 million in debt.[22]

July 2013 memo

In July 2013, NRSC president, Rob Collins, circulated a memo to top donors outlining the path to a majority in the Senate for the Republican Party.
From the memo:

"Montana now joins West Virginia and South Dakota as the third red-state where Democrats have not only failed to land their top candidates, but to recruit a candidate capable of winning a general election matchup."

Collins reiterated that Republicans need to win just three seats in states with incumbent Democratic senators.[23]

NRSC worries

In September 2013, Politico released a report on fundraising and internal problems within the NRSC. The group had only raised $21.7 million through September in 2013, which was $5 million less than it had at the same time in 2009, with 2010 being the most recent midterm elections.
There was also speculation that a staff chasm left some staffers loyal to Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS), the acting NRSC chairman, while others fell more in line with Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), the vice chairman of finance.[24]

Battleground study

The purple districts on the Census district map are those found to be competitive in Ballotpedia's study.

Five criteria

A district must have met one or more of the following criteria:

1. If a district had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential, and incumbent years in office) and four were of the most competitive nature, purple, they automatically made the cut.

Nineteen districts fit in this category.

2. The district was considered competitive if it had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential and incumbent years in office) with three of the highlighted factors being most competitive (purple) and two being intermediate competitive (orange). The district must also have had a “special factor” (high outside spending, redistricting) to be added to the most competitive list.

4.Presidential differences: A district that may not have had all the categories highlighted, but voted for the other party in the most recent presidential election and the numbers were tight for the incumbent (redistricting was also factored in here).

One district was considered “Most Competitive” based only on this factor.

5.Recent effects of redistricting: This was relevant to three districts (IL-12, IL-13 and MN-08). Redistricting in the past three years caused these districts to be extremely tight and had the opportunity for a very close midterm election (the first midterm cycle these new districts will be going through).

Three districts were pushed into the most competitive list because of this, just missing meeting the other criteria listed above.

The 27 most competitive

Color Key

Color

Cook Partisan Voting Index

Fairvote (Projected D%)

Margin of Victory (MOV)

2012 Presidential MOV % %

2008 Presidential MOV %

Incumbent years in office

Purple- most competitive

Even; R or D 0-4

45.1% - 54.9%

0-4.9

0-4.9

0-4.9

0 - 4

Orange- very competitive

R or D 5-7

42.1% - 45.0%; 55% - 57.9%

5.0-7.9

5.0-7.9

5.0-7.9

5 - 7

Green- competitive

R or D 8-10

40.0% - 42.0%; 58% - 60%

8.0-10.00

8.0-10.00

8.0-10.00

8 - 10

House winners labeled this color indicate the party of the House winner being different from the party of the presidential winner of the district in 2012

Districts labeled this color indicate the districts that were pushed into most competitive based on heavily redrawn congressional districts

Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

December 2013

As of December 2, 2013, the NRCC reported raising $52,404,530 and spending $35,697,047, leaving it with $18,242,094 cash on hand.[28] Comparatively, the DCCC reported raising $65,202,181 and spending $41,423,695, leaving it with $25,266,707 cash on hand.[29]

September 2013

The DCCC raised $8.4 million in September compared to the $5.3 million the NRCC raised during the same period. This brought the total raised for 2013 through the third quarter, to $58.2 million for the DCCC compared to the NRCC's $42.6 million.
As for cash on hand, the DCCC still had an edge: $21.6 million to NRCC's $15.7 million.[30]

August 2013

According to an Open Secrets report on FEC filings released on August 13, 2013, the DCCC had raised $40.8 million to the NRCC's $34.3 million.[31]

July 2013

Outside race ratings

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for U.S. Senate and U.S. House (competitive only) elections. The races detailed below are only those considered competitive. There are six possible designations.

NRCC Patriot

The NRCC's Patriot Program is the counterpart of the DCCC's Frontline Program and is designed to assist vulnerable incumbents in their re-election bids. The following table lists the current members of the Patriot Program.

Nick Rahall

In September 2013, the NRCC issued a press release in response to Rahall, one of the organization's main targets in 2014, mistaking an umbrella for a lump of coal during a press conference. The press release stated:

"But Barack Obama, the EPA, and Nick Rahall aren’t waging a war on umbrellas – they are waging a war on coal. And yesterday, Bloomberg reported a new front opening in that war – the EPA is set to issue a rule that will completely halt the development of new coal-fueled plants by requiring they meet unachievable carbon standards."[55]

Media mentions

Across the country, media and experts publish stories that chronicle the incumbents that are in danger of losing their bid for re-election. Some of those incumbents mentioned include:[56]

"The Monkey Cage"

In December 2013, John Sides' column, "The Monkey Cage," a blog published by The Washington Post, released his first predictions for the 2014 elections. Sides and Eric McGhee, a political scientist, developed a forecasting model that uses numerous factors, including: presidential popularity, economic growth and whether it is a presidential or midterm election cycle. "The Monkey Cage" will publish any changes in the forecast.[57]

December 2013:

Democrats will win approximately 48 percent of the popular vote for the House.

Simpson, however, is taking the race seriously, raking in an impressive $306,000 during the second quarter. Smith, meanwhile, suffered an early setback when The Associated Press published a report last week that he had been using a donor’s private airplane to fly to campaign events.

Since 1918, just one Idaho representative has failed to win his party’s nomination before managing to win in the general election.[58]

Shuster’s (R) primary will pit an incumbent against the anti-establishment wing of the party.[58] It’s not the first time Shuster has faced a serious primary. In 2004, he held off Republican challenger Michael DelGrosso, 51 percent to 49 percent.[58]

He must beat challenger Art Halvorson, who has won early endorsements from RedState founder Erick Erickson and the Madison Project, a conservative group that recently ran a 60-second radio ad hammering Shuster for his votes to raise the debt ceiling.[58]

Halvorson, a wealthy commercial real estate developer who has already put $100,000 towards his campaign, has hammered Shuster for his record on spending issues. Travis Schooley, an Army veteran, is also running.[58]

Honda is regarded on Capitol Hill as a well-liked and congenial figure who coasts to victory every other year.[58]

Challenger Ro Khanna, who has taught at Stanford University and works at a Silicon Valley law firm, is tapping a vast network of tech donors to give Honda a surprisingly tough fight in 2014.[58] During the second quarter of 2013, the challenger raised over $1 million and reported having $1.7 million cash on hand — more than four times the amount Honda had.[58]Khanna has built a formidable operation filled with veterans of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, including Jeremy Bird, Obama’s national field director in 2012, and David Binder, one of the president’s pollsters.[58]

Honda has the president’s endorsement — and the backing of Democratic power brokers such as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel.[58] While Khanna is likely to draw support from Silicon Valley’s large Indian-American population, Honda enjoys long-standing ties to the Asian-American community, which makes up nearly half the district.[58]

The race is almost certain to extend beyond the June 3 primary.[58] Under California’s newly implemented “Top-Two” system, the top two finishers advance to the November general election, regardless of their party affiliation.[58]

According to Politico there is no incumbent more likely to lose a primary than DesJarlais, the scandal-plagued sophomore Republicancongressman.[58] During the final weeks before the 2012 general election, sworn testimony from his 2001 divorce trial was uncovered in which DesJarlais, a former physician and hospital chief of staff, acknowledged having sexual relationships with patients and even prescribing drugs to one of them.[58] DesJarlais still managed to win re-election in the conservative district.[58]

With Tracy, Carr and several other less-well-known Republican challengers running, there is the possibility that the anti-DesJarlais vote could splinter and allow him to skate by with a plurality of the vote.[58]

Vulnerable after the scandal surrounding his wife, Tierney barely managed to win re-election in 2012.[58] In 2010, Patrice Tierney pleaded guilty to helping her brother file false tax returns in connection with his operation of an illegal offshore casino.[58]

Republicans criticized Tiernery about his wife, alleging that he was fully aware of her conduct.[58]He ultimately defeated Richard Tisei (D) by fewer than 4,000 votes -- or 1 percent of the vote -- in the general election.

Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Constituent approval

During the shutdown, Americans' disapproval rating of their own congressmen reached new a new high, with almost as many people stating disapproval of their member (43%) to approval (44%).
The Gallup poll concluded:

"While members of Congress may continue to argue that problems with the image of the body as a whole is not their fault, and that they are doing nothing more than faithfully representing their particular constituents, it is clear that even their own constituents are less positive about the job they are doing than they were in the past."

After October shutdown

A USA TODAY/Princeton Survey Research Poll, taken October 17-21, 2013, came to the following post-shutdown conclusions:

54% of Americans blamed both parties, 29% blamed solely Republicans and just 12% placed the blame squarely on the Democrats' shoulders.

Despite only 4% of Americans' belief that Congress would change for the worse if current members were replaced by all new members, 52% of respondents said it made no difference on whether they would vote for their incumbent in the next election.[59]

Healthcare.gov polling

After the numerous problems the Healthcare.gov website dealt with after the initial rollout on October 1, 2013, approval for the Affordable Care Act remained low at the end of 2013. According to a CBS News/New York Times poll in December 2013, more Americans continued to disapprove of the 2010 legislation than approve of it: 50% to 39%, respectively.

"Haters" polling

According to a December 2013 Washington Post-ABC News poll, 72 percent of voters who disapproved of both parties at the federal level said that they would vote for a Republican if the election were held today. Only 14 percent said they would vote for the Democrat.[60]

Issues heading into 2014

Affordable Care Act

For senators up for re-election in 2014, this will be the first election since the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. This may be problematic for Democratic senators who voted in favor of the bill in states where it is no longer popular. This will also become a factor in open seats, especially in states where a Democratic senator is retiring. These senators include:

Shaheen ad

On the heels of the news that President Obama was given the "lie of the year" award for claiming that anyone could keep their healthcare policy under Obamacare, Ending Spending, a conservative political organization, ran an ad against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). It was dubbed by The Washington Post columnist Chris Cillizza as "the ad every Democrat should be afraid of in 2014."[62]

The "ad every Democrat should be afraid of in 2014."

Sen. Lee letter

In July 2013, Sen. Mike Lee authored a letter, which as of August 2013 had been signed by 14 Republican senators, which promised a government shutdown unless the Affordable Care Act was defunded. The senators up for re-election in 2014 who signed the letter are:

SCF targets

The Senate Conservatives Fund targeted Sens. Isakson (R-GA), Graham (R-SC), Alexander (R-TN) and Burr (R-NC) in August 2013 with two weeks of radio ads designed to push Senate Republicans to support Mike Lee's effort to defund Obamacare. [63]

Government shutdown

Beginning in August 2013, House and Senate members began discussing the possibility of a government shutdown over the funding of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). On September 20, Republicans passed a spending bill in the House that would fund the government until December, but strip funding from Obamacare. When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) announced that the Senate would hold a procedural vote on Wednesday, September 24, many senators began to announce their positions on voting against a cloture, the motion to end debate on a bill. After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) gave a marathon speech, the motion for cloture was accepted and Reid was able to strip the Obamacare defunding language contained in the Republican House members' continuing resolution (CR).

Following the successful cloture vote and the Senate subsequently sending a clean continuing resolution back to the House, the two chambers began a high-stakes game of hot potato. By September 30, the House had voted and sent three resolutions to the Senate that all were struck down. The Senate then sent back a clean resolution stripped of any healthcare defunding language. With Obamacare being the issue-at-hand, Congress was unable to agree on whether a resolution would fund the landmark healthcare law.[64]

In the midst of the government shutdown in October 2013, talks began regarding the impending debt ceiling.

Syria

In August 2012, President Obama said the "red line" for U.S. involvement in Syria was the use of chemical or biological weapons.[65] In April 2013, reports surfaced that Syria had used chemical weapons twice in their civil war, but it was not enough for the U.S. to intervene. In June 2013, President Obama authorized sending weapons to Syrian rebels following more reports of small scale chemical weapon attacks.[65]

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) on July 8, 2013, ridiculed the House’s strategy of using the “Hastert rule” to pass legislation and said SpeakerJohn Boehner will eventually have to take up the Senate’s immigration bill.[73]Reid also said Boehner’s adherence to the “Hastert Rule” requiring a majority of Republican caucus votes to move legislation is emblematic of the lower chamber’s dysfunction.[74]

The Senate passed a $1 trillion farm bill in June 2013 to fund both food stamps and farmer subsidies. States heavy in agriculture, including ones that will be competitive in 2014, may turn more favorably to Democratic candidates due to Republican opposition of the bill. The vote was 66-27, with 25 of the 27 nay votes being from Republicans. The two Democratic senators to vote against the bill were Jack Reed (RI) and Sheldon Whitehouse (RI)

Upon arrival at the House, the bill was altered by focusing solely on the farm programs and did not include the food stamp program, which will be voted on later. The House and Senate will now need to draft a final bill through conference committee.[77]

House Republicans passed a bill, the Student Success Act, on July 19, 2013, to reduce the federal role in public education and outline their vision for a national educational policy to replace the No Child Left Behind law.[78][79] The measure would give state and local governments greater powers to determine how best to improve schools and would sharply reduce federal involvement in education matters.[79]

It marked a significant departure from No Child Left Behind, the 2002 law that set federal goals for academic achievement and penalties for schools that fell short of those goals, as well as prescriptions for steps states must take to improve failing schools.[78]

No Democrats supported the bill, which passed by a 221 to 207 margin, with 12 Republicans voting with the Democrats against the measure.[80] It marked the first time in a dozen years that either chamber of Congress approved a comprehensive bill to update federal education law.[78]

The House bill is said to have no chance of moving through the Democratic-led Senate as it is written, and President Obama has threatened to veto it.[79] The Senate committee overseeing education has completed work on its own measure that would give states greater flexibility in writing their own plans to improve schools. However, unlike the Republican proposal that passed the House, that bill would allow the education secretary to retain approval power over those proposals.[79] Full Senate consideration of the measure is unlikely to happen before the fall of 2014.[79]