The impact of Assembly elections on Lok Sabha in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh

In the last 10 years, any party which has claimed a victory in the state elections has managed to keep an upper hand over its rivals in the immediate Lok Sabha elections in Chhattisgarh, MP, and Rajasthan.

As it turned out in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, voters were driven by the promises of development, curbing black money and corruption, and the Bharatiya Janata Party, the torch-bearer of those promises, secured an unprecedented victory that went down in the history books. A lot of southern states, which have long been dominated by regional parties, were unfazed by the so-called 'Modi wave' back then as the BJP failed to stomp its authority there. But the saffron party's success in the northern states, mainly the Hindi heartland, was of such colossal scale that it overshadowed the party's poor performance in the south and garnered it an overwhelming majority in the lower house of the parliament.

Fast-forward five years and the same hullabaloo surrounds the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, there is a significant decline in the decibels of development pitch by the political parties as to the issues of nationalism and national security which have taken the driving seat this time around. Barring Karnataka, the BJP is unlikely to improve much on its current standing in the southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, suggest political analysts. And once again, Hindi heartland will play a pivotal role in making or breaking the BJP's fortunes come this May 23.

The Hindi heartland mainly comprises of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh - it sends 225 MPs to the Lok Sabha alone. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won 190 out of these 225 Lok Sabha seats which virtually ensured the party's victory in the elections.

The BJP had laid the foundation of its victory, back in 2013 when it swept Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh in the Vidhan Sabha elections. The relevance between these states and the Lok Sabha elections is that they were the last few states where the Assembly elections were held just before the 2014 general elections.

But then again, there is much debate on how much impact, if at all, does the state Assembly elections make on the Lok Sabha elections and through this article, we attempt to analyse the voter trends that have followed in the Lok Sabha elections immediately after the Vidhan Sabha elections.

2008 Legislative Assembly Elections

Back in the 2008 Assembly elections, the BJP formed the government in Chhattisgarh thanks to the 50 seats it won in the 90-seat Assembly. The saffron party's vote share stood at 40.33 per cent compared to the Congress vote share of 38.63 per cent at which the grand old party won 38 seats. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP comfortably crossed the majority mark by securing 143 seats in the 230-seat Assembly at 37.64 per cent vote share. The Congress finished second by a mile with 71 seats to its name at 32.39 per cent vote share. In Rajasthan, it was a different picture as the Congress emerged as the single largest party with 96 seats at 36.82 per cent vote share while the BJP was the runner-up with 78 seats in the 200-seat Assembly at 34.27 per cent vote share.

2009 Lok Sabha Elections

Later in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP swept 10 seats out of 11 in Chhattisgarh while Congress crashed out of the contest with just one seat to its name. The vote share of the BJP stood at 45.03 per cent while the Congress garnered 37.31 per cent vote share. In Madhya Pradesh, it was a close contest between the Congress and the BJP despite a stark contrast in their performances in the Assembly elections. The BJP won 16 seats out of 29 at 43.45 per cent vote share while the Congress followed closely with 12 seats at 40.14 per cent vote share. In Rajasthan, the Congress swept the state of by winning 20 out of 25 seats with a staggering vote share of 47.19 per cent. The BJP could only manage to win 4 seats at 36.57 per cent vote share.

2013 Legislative Assembly Elections

In the 2013 Assembly elections, not much changed in terms of seat count of the BJP and the Congress in Chhattisgarh but there was a significant spike in the saffron party's vote share. The BJP won 49 seats at a noteworthy vote share of 54.44 per cent while the Congress managed to win 39 seats at 43.33 per cent vote share. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP had significantly improved its seat count in the state by winning 165 seats at 44.88 per cent vote share. The Congress toiled at the second spot with 58 seats to its name at 36.38 per cent vote share. In the 2013 Rajasthan Assembly elections, the BJP had signalled a warning to the Congress by winning a whopping 163 seats in the 200-seat Assembly. A hapless Congress was runner-up with 21 seats at 33.1 per cent vote share. The BJP's vote share stood at 45.2 per cent.

2014 Lok Sabha Elections

Later in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP repeated its 2009 performance by winning 10 seats and leaving one seat to the Congress to win. The saffron party's vote share stood at 48.7 per cent while that of the grand old party stood at 38.40 per cent. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP nearly annihilated the Congress from the state after winning 27 out of 29 seats at a hefty 55 per cent vote share. The Congress won the remaining two seats at 34.90 per cent vote share. In Rajasthan, the saffron party wiped out the Congress from the state by winning all the 25 seats. The BJP, however, had secured 50.90 per cent vote share while the Congress had to crash out of the contest with 30.40 per cent vote share.

Conclusion

In the last 10 years, any party which has claimed a victory in the Legislative Assembly elections has managed to keep an upper hand over its rivals in the immediate Lok Sabha elections in the said states. In the 2008 Assembly elections, the BJP won in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh but lost in Rajasthan, and it fared on the same lines in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, with a slight change in the vote share.

In the 2013 Assembly elections, the BJP had secured resounding successes in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh while also repeating its 2008 performance in Chhattisgarh. And then in the following Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the saffron party repeated the big victories in the three states. The party's performance in the Lok Sabha elections far exceeded the opinion polls and swept 62 out of 65 Lok Sabha seats in the three states, thanks to a rampant anti-Congress sentiment and a marauding 'Modi wave'.

2018 Legislative Assembly Elections

A very different picture emerged in the 2018 Assembly elections as the BJP lost all the three states in the discussion here. In Chhattisgarh, the Congress formed the government in the state after far-exceeding the majority mark by winning 68 seats in the 90-seat Assembly at 43 per cent vote share. The BJP trailed at the second spot with just 15 seats at 33 per cent vote share.

In Madhya Pradesh, despite securing lesser vote share than the BJP, Congress emerged as the single largest party with 114 seats in the 230-seat Assembly. The BJP followed closely with 109 seats to its name. The saffron party's vote share stood at 41 per cent while the Congress saw 40.9 per cent vote share in the elections.

In Rajasthan too, Congress formed the government by winning 100 seats at 39.3 per cent vote share while the BJP followed closely in terms of vote share at 38.8 per cent but with a far lesser seat count of 73.

Prediction

Apart from the clear-cut victory in Chhattisgarh, the Congress narrowly edged out the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Interestingly in Madhya Pradesh, the grand old party had garnered lesser vote share than the saffron party but yet managed to emerge as the single largest party.

After taking previous trends into consideration, Congress now holds a comfortable advantage over its eternal rival in Chhattisgarh while the grand old party has an extra edge in Rajasthan as well. However, the two political parties are likely to see a neck and neck competition in Madhya Pradesh.

However, the X-factor this time around is the Modi factor. The Prime Minister continues to be personally popular especially in Rajasthan and MP, and anecdotal evidence suggests that some voters could differentiate between state elections and the Lok Sabha polls. So will the Congress take the lead going by historical trends and past voter behaviour, or will Modi’s charisma and popularity see the BJP home? We will know on May 23.

The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way represent those of Times Network.

This election make sure you do a complete background check of your neta’s criminal background, qualification, assets and income, before voting. A step taken towards choosing a #SwachhNeta can go a long way in ensuring clean politics. To background check your neta, log on to www.swachhneta.com.

The impact of Assembly elections on Lok Sabha in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya PradeshDescription:In the last 10 years, any party which has claimed a victory in the state elections has managed to keep an upper hand over its rivals in the immediate Lok Sabha elections in Chhattisgarh, MP, and Rajasthan.Mohammad Adil