Pac-10 football: Picks of the week

So close to perfection last week, with Stanford-Arizona ending as a push and Washington failing to cover by a half-point on ASU’s last-second touchdown.

This week, four of the five games involve road underdogs, and you know at least one will cover — and possibly win outright. Feels like chaos Saturday to me.

The marquee matchup is Oregon-Washington, partly because of the nasty rivalry, partly because a Husky win changes the shape of the league race.

It would also bump UW into decent post-season position. The Huskies would have four wins, with UCLA (road), Oregon State (road), Washington State (home) and Cal (home) left.

Winning two of those four seems reasonable, but three might be tough — hence the significance of this week’s tussle.

Stanford (4-3) faces a similar situation in that a loss Saturday at home to ASU would make it tough to get six wins.

UCLA is in better bowl shape than it appears with only three wins and a tough game this week (at Arizona). The Bruins get Washington and ASU at home in November and also visit WSU — good chance for three more right there.

Last week: 2-1-1Season: 18-20-3Five-star special: 3-4

All picks against the spread.

ARIZONA STATE (plus-6.5) at STANFORD: Judging by comparative scores, Stanford should win handily. It thumped WSU in Pullman, whereas ASU only won by 13. It thumped UW at home, and ASU needed a late TD to beat the Huskies. It lost by 10 at Oregon State, and ASU lost by 11 to the Beavers in Tempe. I expect this one to be tight into the second half, but not in the final minutes. Gimme: Stanford.

WASHINGTON STATE (plus-35) at CAL: No doubt, the Cougars will have last year’s humiliation (66-3) on their minds, which means this will only be 55-3. Gimme: Cal.

OREGON STATE (plus-21) at USC: Line opened at 19.5, and both numbers are too high. Don’t be fooled by USC’s aerial output in South Bend — Notre Dame has the 117th-ranked pass defense in the country. The Beavers will keep Matt Barkley and Co. from running away and hiding. Gimme: Oregon State.

UCLA (plus-7.5) at ARIZONA: Line opened at 9.5 and had dropped significantly, and for good reason: This looks like an Arizona romp, which means it won’t be. The UCLA secondary won’t let the Cats put up 40+ again, and it appears the Bruins are finding their rhythm offensively. Gimme: UCLA.

OREGON (minus-10) at WASHINGTON: Huskies lost at home to LSU by eight, beat USC and beat Arizona — and all three are comparable to (or better than) Oregon. Toss Jeremiah Masoli’s injury into the mix, and the Huskies have a good chance at another home uprising. Gimme: Washington.

Straight-up winners: Stanford, Cal, USC, Arizona UCLA and Washington.

Five-star special: Hit last week with Notre Dame covering 10 against USC and am sticking with the Trojans — or rather, with their opponent. I’ll take Oregon State (i.e., Mike Riley and Mark Banker) with 21 points, thanks very much.