He is furious for having lost big cities like Istanbul and Ankara. He is aiming to “punish” those inside the party for these losses, but the political dyke is bursting. This time he may not prevent a collapse. His imminent cabinet shuffle is likely to lead to further fragmentation within ranks, and there is talk of Abdullah Gul, the former (and highly respected) president and others forming a new party.

In the next presidential elections, set for 2019, or possibly earlier, RTE could well be defeated, if confronted by a credible runner.