Riding the Raisina Tiger

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Tuesday, 19 April 2016

The Supreme Court
today granted interim stay on an appeal filed by the Centre against the Armed
Forces Tribunal’s decision granting permanent commission and reinstatement of a
retired lady wing commander. The court issued notice to Namrita Chandi for May
9.

A Bench comprising
Chief Justice TS Thakur and UU Lalit passed the order after hearing Additional
Solicitor General Pinky Anand and Advocate Col R Balasubramaanian, who
explained that none of the women officers from Short Service Commission have
been given a permanent commission since 2004.

They submitted that
only women officers in the administrative, education and accounts were
considered for permanent commission from the SSC.

The Centre has
challenged the Armed Forces Tribunal’s order granting permanent commission to
the Wing Commander. — PTI

Defence Minister
Manohar Parrikar today kicked off his first visit here by holding talks with
Chinese counterpart Gen Chang Wanquan stating that India attaches highest
priority to its relationship with China and is committed to further develop the
ties.

“India attaches highest priority
to relations with China and committed to further developing friendly and
cooperative relations with China,” Parrikar told Chang in his opening remarks
before the two delegations started the talks.

Parrikar was accorded a
ceremonial welcome at the headquarters of the Chinese military here by a
contingent of PLA soldiers. Welcoming Parrikar, Chang said: “Hope your visit
improve strategic mutual trust between the two armed forces.” After his meeting
with Chang, Parrikar will hold talks with Gen Fan Changlong, Vice Chairman of
the Central Military Commission, (CMC).

In Chinese military hierarchy
Gen Fan is ranked higher, as CMC is overall head of the 2.3-million-strong
People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

He is also due to call on
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and visit China’s recently-integrated western
command military headquarters in Chengdu which has jurisdiction over entire
borders with India.

During Parrikar’s talks today
with top Chinese military officials, recurring incidents of incursions,
implementation of an agreement to reduce tensions between border patrols and
Sino-India strategic concerns are expected to figure.

While Indian officials said the
talks were expected to review the whole gamut of bilateral ties, India’s
concerns over aggressive patrolling by Chinese troops especially in the Ladakh
sector remains high. China denies any incursions, asserting its troops patrol
areas within its territory along the 3,488-km disputed border. The two
militaries also have strategic concerns over each other’s military tie-ups with
other countries.

Ahead of Parrikar’s visit, China
hinted that it may take up the recent decision by India to open up military
bases to the US for logistics and efforts to conclude a pact to share aircraft
sharing technologies. — PTI

The incident at
Handwara panned out in a manner that was typical of a deep-set conspiracy to
bait the Army. Targeting and burning of the bunker was deliberately done to
invite response. The Army’s could not have given a benign response as the
safety of its men was involved.

A dangerous
situation is unfolding in Kashmir and it appears a deliberate attempt to up the
ante. It was predictable to any one who observes the Jammu and Kashmir
situation on a regular basis. South Kashmir was far too volatile and the north
far too quiet over the last few months. The conditions were ideal for a return
to the street turbulence witnessed during 2008-10. Sopore, Handwara, Baramula
and Pattan are competing centres for attention. Bandipura too has been without
political or terrorist activity for some time. All of them have distinct
separatist bases with a large cadre of over ground workers (OGWs). Terrorist
strength has dwindled due to an effective anti-infiltration grid and effort of
the security forces in the hinterland. Separatists cannot afford to allow their
movement to flag off beyond a certain threshold and the youth-based militancy
in south Kashmir is increasingly out of control of the United Jehad Council
with whom the separatists have a good working linkage. The stamina of the
public for another round of street turbulence has resurged. This was evident
from the manner in which mobs attempted to intervene in the operations of the
Army's Victor Force in south Kashmir and turned out to pay tribute to dead
terrorists. The local media has largely been eulogising the terrorists in south
Kashmir, with pro- separatist commentaries. The return of a government also
triggered the idea of agitation.

With Governor's rule
an agitation loses its political effect and the response by the state is far
more robust. With an elected government in place the situation helps to create
hype; response comes under scrutiny and with a coalition government dissensions
increase on how to handle the turbulence Separatists create situations in which
the security forces are offered few options but to respond. Recall how the
Muzaffarabad March of August 11, 2011, was set up and Sheikh Abdul Aziz was
virtually led to his death through a conspiracy. His death is still believed to
have been at the hands of terrorists concealed in the mob. The manner in which
the recent Handwara incident panned out was typical of a deep-set conspiracy to
bait the Army. The targeting and burning of the bunker was done deliberately to
invite response. The Army could not have had a benign response as the safety of
its men was involved.

The attention of the
Army will shift to internal security and the terrorists and their handlers will
hope that the anti-infiltration grid will be less focused allowing more
terrorists to infiltrate, leaders to be brought in and the critical supply of
arms and ammunition replenished. Separatists want India and Pakistan to talk
but perceive that their own role is being marginalised, hence the necessity to
project their relevance. Street power is considered an appropriate means to
draw attention. If the India-Pakistan peace process does progress, the
importance of Handwara- like situations will enhance — with separatists constantly seeking their
space.

The spiralling
violence is a part of the overall plan of action and reaction. Cadres are
usually on the ready for this and professional rabble-rousers move from town to
town, with teams of stone throwers. The Baramula agitation, for example, is
almost entirely instigated from Sopore and carried out by the Pattan youth. The
Army has the experience to handle this although many of the officers and jawans
may be new to this game due to turnovers. However, there is an institutional
memory and the JK police will help in briefing them on past responses. The Army
must keep itself out of the agitation as in the past, notwithstanding
deliberate attempts this time to bait it. This is not a conventional internal
security situation. Remember, the Army is on a counter-terrorism grid. Flag
marches will have to be dispensed with as this brings the mobs in contact with
soldiers. The CRPF and JK police have enough experience but must ensure that a
repeat of 2010 is avoided at all cost. The optimum amount of anti-riot gear is
learnt to be still eluding these forces for which responsibility must be fixed.
Senior police officers have to ensure that their sub units are never too small
to get isolated and, therefore, targeted.

My personal experience
tells me that the clergy plays a crucial role in subsiding tempers. The Amir e
Jamat of the Jamat e Islami (K), who is located at Kulgam in south Kashmir can
play a positive role. In such mass agitation, a sane voice will help and his
services must be requested. If need be, SAS Geelani and his ilk should be
physically isolated and prevented from accessing any communication resources
such as mobile phones. His bandh calls had reached a point where no one was
responding to them. Obviously Handwara is a method to regain his lost space.

All the above is
well said and is fine as an approach towards prevention of a negative situation
followed by avoiding worsening if it occurs. However, there is an element
within the separatists and a very influential one which is instigating an
irrational approach. It is catering for a conventional benign Army response of
controlled use of violence.

The overall response
of the security forces has been relatively benign, although some may term my
usage of the word as an oxymoron. It's not easy to be facing mobs and
attempting to be “good guys”. Before long, tempers will have flared.

In 2010, Geelani was
initially ill- advised to increase the pitch of the agitation by targeting Army
camps. When a veiled warning from the Army was received, he sensibly held back.

It seems this time
the separatists have concluded that the Army will be benign and defensive so as
not to draw the ire of human rights activists. Those promoting violence on the
streets need to be aware of the phenomenon of unpredictability which the Army
follows as an essential principle of security. In needling the Army, the
separatists may just cross the threshold. It is their intent to sacrifice a few
lives in the street to raise passions but beyond a point they too realise that
loss of lives flags down a movement rather than take it forward.

There is a dire need
for messaging at this time. The parents must know that their sons in the
streets are being instigated. Even with best of intentions of the security
forces, lives will be lost if a threshold is crossed. Is it difficult to get
this message across? Perception management isn't the strongest area of any
government establishment but this time sincere efforts must be made to shift
blame squarely to the perpetrators who care least for young lives.

Some elements of the
local media are attempting to egg on the new government to take a hard stance
against the security forces. The Army Commander has made an early visit to
ascertain and be briefed.

This is the time when
the political leadership and the Army need to be demonstratively on the same
page. Separatists and elements of the negative media will paint perception of
division of opinion and attempt to project the CM as anti-people. This must not
allow the working to be dented. The Durbar is still at Jammu but an advance
element of the government must move to the Valley to nip the happenings in the
bud. If not, there will be no rest this summer in the salubrious environs of
the pristine Valley.

The writer, an ex
General Officer Commanding of the Srinagar based 15 Corps, is now a Fellow with
Vivekanand International Foundation & Delhi Policy Group.

http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/India-modernizes-its-military-451620

India’s reliance on imports may well continue
even as it seeks to develop a domestic military industry.

By far the largest importer of arms in the
world, India is poised to spend an estimated $310 billion by 2022 on upgrading
its arsenal. Vying for these sweepstakes are global arms vendors and also
domestic suppliers who are exploring all viable options, such as forming
consortia, joint ventures (JVs), public-private partnerships (PPPs) and
outright sales.

Facilitating such
partnerships will be the Defense Procurement Procedure (DPP) 2016, launched on
March 28 by Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar at the Defense Expo 2016 in Goa.
Unveiled before a gathering that included 224 representatives from 48 countries
and 1,055 defense-related companies, DPP 2016 seeks to foster a credible Defense
Industrial Base (DIB), or military industry, that will serve India’s armed
forces as well as exports. Parrikar was confident that the Procedure, effective
from April 2, would ensure probity in, and streamline and simplify, acquisition
procedures so as to boost the government’s “Make in India” mission through
indigenous design and production of military hardware.

With a resurgent
India pursuing robust militarization that aims at addressing the complex
security challenges it faces, its Union Budget 2016-17 presented to Parliament
on February 29 apportioned $38.4b. for the defense sector. The “guns versus
bread” votaries are questioning this largesse, considering that allocations
were but $1.08b. for the education sector, $579 million for Public Health and $535.5m.
for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare.

The Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) rates India the largest importer
of arms, with a 14 percent share in global arms imports between 2011 and 2015.
India’s mobilization has been driven by concerns about the critical gaps in the
tactical and strategic defenses of its armed forces that have hitherto been
largely served by vintage Soviet-era equipment.

Another worry has
been the concerted expansion of the offensive capabilities of both Pakistan and
China on India’s frontiers.

Parrikar has
directed his officials to ensure the sanction of 86 pending acquisition
proposals worth $22.3b.

within the first
quarter of the current fiscal, namely, by June 30, 2016.

Three “Made in
India” defense contracts worth $3.7b. were cleared last May. One was worth $2b.
for joint production of C-295 transport aircraft by Airbus and Tata Advanced
Systems (TAS) to replace the IAF’S aging Avros. The initial order is for 56
aircraft, with options for eight more. UK’s BAE Systems plc is partnering
Mahindra Defense Systems (MDS) on a $700m. contract for local production of 145
M777 howitzers for the Indian Army. A joint venture between Russia’s Rostec
State Corp. and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) will licensebuild 200 Ka-226T
twin-engine light multipurpose helicopters, in a deal worth $1b. and which will
replace the aging Cheetahs and Chetaks – Indian versions of Aérospatiale SA
315B Lama and SA 319 Alouette III – deployed by the Indian armed forces for
high-altitude operations, particularly in Siachen.

Imports have
hitherto been the mainstay of India’s defenses – 70% of the defense capital
budget is imported – as generous outlays to the defense public sector
undertakings (DPSUs) and the Ministry of Defense’s (MOD’S) Defense Research and
Development Organization (DRDO) failed to nurture any noteworthy military
industry.

Curiously, budgetary
allocations under capital acquisition are often not fully utilized, resulting
in withdrawal at the RE (revised estimates) stage. Of the $5.2b. forfeited over
the past four years, $1.7b. remained unspent in 2015-16 alone, from an
allocation that year of $11.5b.

While India’s
dependence on defense imports seems likely to continue in the foreseeable
future, Prime Minister Narendra Modi desires the country to become a major arms
exporter, targeting a value of $3b. within a decade. The fact is that India’s
arms purchases far overshadow its exports. Parrikar informed Parliament that
“direct payments to foreign vendors for capital acquisitions” for the three
services over the previous five years totaled $15.4b. In contrast, the five
DPSUs, four defense shipyards, 39 ordnance factories as well as the private
sector combined managed to export defense equipment worth only $245m. in the
past three years.

In February, the
“Make in India” policy got a boost when two Indian consortia were selected for
the $5.95b. Battlefield Management System (BMS) contract for integrating all
surveillance resources available at the battalion or regiment level, including
from locally launched UAVs and ground sensors. Fourteen contenders had formed
four consortia to vie for this prestigious contract.

The two selected –
one comprising Tata Power Strategic Engineering Division (SED) and L&T, and
the other, Rolta India and the DPSU, Bharat Electricals Ltd (BEL) – will each
develop four BMS prototypes for mountain, jungle, plains and desert operations.
The BMS will pinpoint the locations of Indian and enemy troops and key weapons
platforms as well as facilitate terrain analysis to achieve improved
situational awareness.

Tata Power
SED-L&T along with the consortium of HCL Infosystems- BEL have been
selected for another major contract, the $1.5b.

Tactical
Communication System (TCS), which will replace the aging Army Radio Engineering
Network (AREN). It was in 1996 that the army had sought to replace this
backbone of its communication grid on an urgent and critical basis. The two
selected teams will build two prototypes of the TCS, seven of which will be
produced for the seven army commands. The two prototypes will be put to trials
and the selected competitor will produce the entire TCS.

Ten Indian companies
that have formed consortia are competing for the country’s largest ever
indigenous contract, for $8.93b. worth of supply of 2,610 Future Infantry
Combat Vehicles (FICVs). While Tata Motors has entered into a strategic
agreement with Bharat Forge Ltd and the US’s General Dynamics Land Systems
(GDLS), L&T has tied up with Mahindra. Tata Power SED is going it alone,
while the others include Reliance Defense, Rolta, Punj Lloyd, Titagarh Wagons
and the public sector Ordnance Factory Board (OFB).

This contract was
conceived in 2009, but the letter of intent (LoI) was suddenly withdrawn in
2012, only to be revived recently. The FICV will be an amphibious, armored,
tracked and air-transportable troop-carrier that can fire four-kilometer range
anti-tank missiles and will replace the Indian Army’s Russian-made BMP II
second-generation infantry fighting vehicles in use since the 1980s. Each of
the three shortlisted consortia will develop an FICV prototype, with the
Defense Ministry contributing 80% of the cost.

The Tata Group is
among those Indian companies positioning themselves to take advantage of the
military bounty. India’s largest private sector conglomerate with $108.8b.

revenue in 2014-15
is investing substantially in this field and its defense and aerospace business
expects to earn $398.3m. in 2015-16. For instance, Tata Power SED, which has a
$74.4m. facility in Bangalore, is setting up a new factory of a like amount at
Vemagal in Karnataka.

The unit will open
next year, and a further $29.8m. will be invested in the second phase. The
group’s 14 companies engaged in the sector have an order book exceeding $1.3b.

Vernon Noronha,
vice-president of Tata Motors’ defense & government business, sees defense
contributing 15% to his company’s revenue, up from the current 3%, if it wins
the FICV order.

The latest Indian
company to foray into defense is the $10b. diversified Adani Group, with its
newly- formed subsidiary, Adani Aero Defense Systems & Technologies Ltd,
signing a statement of intent on March 30 with Israel’s Elbit-ISTAR and
Bangalore’s Alpha Design Technologies Pvt Ltd to collaborate on Unmanned
Aircraft Systems (UAS).

Adani believes UAS
will be the next frontier of technology, providing multi-functional capability,
especially that of “see & hear,” to provide information advantage to the
military and Internet security providers.

Anil
Ambani-controlled Reliance Infrastructure entered the defense sector last year
by picking up an 18% stake in Pipavav Defense and Offshore Engineering Company
Ltd for $123.1m., after announcing plans to acquire a controlling stake for up
to $313m. It followed up in December with an additional 17% for $127.8.m and
made an open offer for a further 26%. Rechristened Reliance Defense and
Engineering Ltd (RDEL) On March 3, the company is setting up a $751.6m.
shipyard on the east coast in Rambilli, near the Indian naval base at
Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh to build nuclear vessels and aircraft carriers.
It will also be taking on its board veterans like retired air chief marshall
Fali Homi Major and Lt. Gen. (ret.) Syed Ata Hasnain. The company secured 12
industrial licenses last year from the Department of Industrial Policy and
Promotion and is hoping for orders worth $18b. over the next five years.

each in army and
navy. Since 2002, L&T is India’s only corporation with licenses to
manufacture the entire range of defense equipment for all four services,
including the Coast Guard. The company fabricated the hull and other critical
components of India’s first indigenous nuclear- powered submarine, Arihant, and
has invested $594m. in the 1,225- acre Kutapalli shipyard on the east coast
where it intends to build the P 75I submarines – if it wins the imminent
contract estimated at between $8b.-$10b. – and other naval orders.

India’s largest
defense deal was to have been the $22b. contract won in January 2012 by
France’s Dassault Aviation for 126 Rafale medium multi-role combat aircraft
(MMRCA) for the Indian Air Force (IAF). The process began in 2005 with a
request for information (RFI) issued by the IAF for a new frontline jetfighter
to replace the out-of-date Soviet-built MiG-21s that had been its mainstay
since the early ‘80s. The IAF is hamstrung by a depleted fleet of just 34
combat squadrons against the authorized strength of 42. Negotiations had stalled
over pricing and the guarantee clause when Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his
April 2015 visit to France officiated the outright purchase of 36 Rafales at an
as-yet undetermined price. It is unclear what will happen to the rest of the
MMRCA deal, which originally entailed outright purchase of 18 Rafales, the
remaining 108 to be built under transfer of technology by HAL.

France’s other major
ongoing military program with India is the $3.73b. transfer of technology
Project 75 (P 75) by its state-owned DCNS with India’s public sector Mazagon
Dock Ltd (MDL) for constructing six Scorpene attack submarines.

The first submarine,
Kalvari, is set for launch in September and for commissioning a year
thereafter, the remaining five joining service at intervals of one year.

The Indian Navy has
a particularly robust program of modernization, with 41 ships on order from
Indian yards at a combined cost of about $16b., including P 75.

DCNS, MDL and other
defense-oriented enterprises like L&T and RDEL, which have invested heavily
in creating and expanding their warship- building competencies, are also
aspiring for the imminent $7.44b. P 75 India (P 75I) tender for building six
more diesel-electric submarines.

Last September,
India signed a $2.5b. deal with Boeing for procuring 22 Apache AH-64E combat
and 15 Chinook CH-47F heavy lift helicopters. With large sections of the
Chinook fuselage already being made in India and talks on to make Apache parts
as well, Boeing chairman Jim McNerney said his company may assemble either of
these helicopters in India and also proposed to manufacture a current fighter
jet of Boeing in the country.

Russia, according to
SIPRI, remains India’s steadfast arms supplier, accounting for 70% of India’s
arms imports between 2011 and 2015.

India, in turn,
remains the largest purchaser of Russian arms, with 39% of Moscow’s military
exports in the same five-year period. “Based on existing orders and weapons,
Russia will remain, by a significant distance, the main supplier of major arms
to India for the foreseeable future,” the SIPRI report adds.

Last December,
India’s Defense Acquisition Council (DAC) cleared the purchase of five Russian
S-400 Triumph (NATO reporting name SA-21 Growler) missile defense systems
estimated at $6b. India could reportedly buy 12 of these 400-km range
surface-to-air missiles that can simultaneously engage up to 36 targets, like
tactical and strategic aircraft as well as ballistic and cruise missiles,
firing 72 missiles toward them. China is the first buyer of S-400, which is one
of the most advanced anti-aircraft missile systems in the Russian inventory.

The DRDO and Israeli
Aerospace Industries (IAI) are partnering on the $1.5b. project for developing
a medium-range surface-to-air missile (MR-SAM) system for the IAF and on the
$388m. project for developing a long-range SAM (LR-SAM) for both the Indian and
Israeli armed forces. Both the SAM systems will be inducted from this year.

There is a growing
view that India needs to adequately militarize in the context of the threat
scenario it faces on two fronts. Apart from defense modernization and
indigenization, it needs to focus on future technologies like stealth, unmanned
systems, satellite surveillance and cyber-warfare. China, for instance, is a
generation ahead when it comes to militarization and the gap is increasing.
Beijing has successfully raised indigenization after decades of dependence on
Soviet imports and reverse engineering. China also supplies more than half the
defense equipment required by Pakistan under “the enemy of my enemy is my
friend” theory.