~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

Week Eight Picks

I’m working on this and putting it up early as I am off to Wembley tomorrow.

I shouldn’t be panicking too much as I only hit 45 points a week earlier last year, but I have been under .500 for most of the season and it is beginning to bug me, even if Dan has only pulled back level with me this week.

Gee: Week 7 4-11 Overall 45-62
Dan: Week 7 5-10 Overall 45-62

Washington @ Bengals (-2.5)

Washington are following up their road loss in Detroit by flying to London to play the Cincinnati Bengals as the road team. They look to have solidified the after their poor start to the season, but are facing the Bengals coming off their first thirty point game of the season having beaten the Cleveland Browns. We will have to see if Josh Norman or Jordan Reed will play given their recent concussion issues, but I’m picking in hope of witnessing a win tomorrow, even if it would be a very Bengals thing to lose the first game that I can actually get to see them play in person.

Gee’s Pick: Bengal s
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Patriots @ Bills (+6.5)

The hamstring injury to LeSean McCoy is a big worry for the Bills, as will have been giving up over two hundred yards on the ground to the Miami Dolphins on the other side of the ball. They may be back in Buffalo, but I find it hard to look past a New England Patriots team that will be looking to avoid a season white wash against the Bills.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Jets @ Browns (+3.5)

The New York Jets might have got an unexpected win last week, but they are only 0.4% better by overall DVOA than the Browns, and are on the road in Cleveland. I could really regret this, but the Browns don’t look to be a zero win team and this game is as good a chance for them to get a win as they are likely to get, and I think getting these points I’m going to back them to cover.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Lions @ Texans (-2.5)

The Texans are one of the more Jekyll and Hyde team with a defence that ranks just outside the top ten by DVOA and an offence that is flat last. The Detroit Lions did enough last week to win, and are the inverse of the Texans with a defence flat last in the league by DVOA, and an offence that ranks thirteenth. However, they have distinctly better ranked special teams and a quarterback who is working well with his offensive coordinator and I choose this week to put my faith in that.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Chiefs @ Colts (+2.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs are a better team than the Indianapolis Colts, and have the running backs to trouble the Colts defence even if things haven’t been flashy for the Chiefs on offence this year. It is possible that I am being overly harsh on the Colts, and perhaps I should trust them at home getting points, but I don’t and so I’m picking the Chiefs in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Raiders @ Buccaneers (-0.5)

The Buccaneers may have done better last week, but it was against the 49ers and whilst they will likely have some success against the Raiders poor defence, the Raiders have actually been better on the road than in Oakland. Perhaps the weather in Tampa Bay will cause them problems, but I’m happy to be getting a half point as I think the Raiders are the better team.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Seahawks @ Saints (+3.5)

The next couple of games I am picking based on what happen to both the Panthers and the Bengals the last time there was a tie that involved both teams playing an entire quarter of overtime, which was both teams came out very flat and lost. So with the Saints getting three and a half points going against a team whose offence is struggling and unlikely to take advantage of the Saints poor defence, I’m backing the Saints to cover at home with them getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Cardinals @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers are coming off a bye and desperately need to get their season going, even if it may already be too late. The real weakness of their defence has been the secondary, but whilst the Cardinals may have found a winning formula, David Johnson carried the ball a lot last week against the Seahawks and Carson Palmer has not looked himself this season and so again with the Cardinals having played five quarters of football last week, I’m backing the Panthers to win a game they really can’t afford to lose.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Chargers @ Broncos (-5.5)

The Denver Broncos got back on track with healthy win over the Houston Texans last week, and had a much better balance of run to pass plays. However, whilst the San Diego Chargers have a worse record right now, they are very possibly a better team than the Texans and certainly a DVOA ranking of eleven would point that way. I like them to come into Denver and at least keep it closer than six points.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Packers got the win against the Bears at home in Green Bay last week despite their injury problems at running back, but they are not exactly back to their fluent best. The Atlanta Falcons lost in overtime to the San Diego Chargers, but their offence was playing at a higher level than the Packers before they developed problems of their own at running back. This should be a good game, but I’m backing the Falcons at home to pick up the win, even if I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Eagles @ Cowboys (-4.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles got a great win against the Vikings last week, but their defence is going up against a very different proposition in the Dallas Cowboys offensive line. The Cowboys have built momentum and I think they will carry it through against a team who have been a little up and down. I could be underestimating the Eagles, and certainly Dan’s pick would indicate that I am, but I’m sticking by my instinct in this one despite being off so often this year.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Vikings @ Bears (+6.5)

The Chicago Bears have got Jay Cutler coming back after Brian Hoyer broke his arm last week, but how much of a bump that will be I don’t know, and I think it is more likely that the Vikings will bounce back. There were signs of a pass rush from the Bears last week so the Vikings problems on the offensive line do worry me a little, but I trust Mike Zimmer and his staff to get things back on track and so I’m backing the Vikings to cover this line. I just hope my change in pick doesn’t bite me.