NOAA ANNOUNCES U.S. SPRING OUTLOOK
Drought and Wildfire Concerns Highlighted for April through June

At a news conference today in Phoenix,
Ariz., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in partnership
with the National Interagency Fire Center, announced that despite
periodic precipitation, NOAA’s U.S. Spring outlook supports
the potential for a significant wildfire season in the Southwest and
central and southern Plains.

“Recent
storms have eased the drought situation in many areas of the country,
but the rain and snow arrived too late to offset the impacts from
months of record dry weather across the Southwest, resulting in the
continuing potential for a dangerous fire season,” said retired
Air Force Brig. Gen.
David L. Johnson, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service.

Weak
La
Niña conditions, which developed this winter, contributed
to significant drought concerns in the Southwest, central and southern
Plains. “April through June is typically dry in the Southwest,
so drought will very likely persist or even worsen until the thunderstorm
season arrives this summer,” said Ed O’Lenic, chief, forecast
operations branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “NOAA’s
outlook also indicates a continued drought concern for the southern
and central Plains.”

“The National Interagency Fire
Center’s Seasonal Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February
through June 2006 calls for an above normal fire potential for Southern
California, the Southwest, Southern Plains to Florida; and a below
normal potential in the Northeast,” said Rick Ochoa, National
Interagency Fire Center fire weather program manager.

As of March 13, nearly unprecedented
dry weather, unseasonably high temperatures, and gusty winds have
already contributed to more than 13,000 wildfires, scorching in excess
of 930,000 acres nationally since January 1, mainly in Texas and Oklahoma.
This is well above the five-year average of 6,363 wildfires and 98,476
acres burned.

In the southern Plains, the drought has
had a major impact on farmers and ranchers. The lack of rain has dried
up many stock ponds and led to abysmal pasture, range, and winter
wheat crop conditions, especially in Texas and Oklahoma.

Currently,
severe to extreme drought extends across the Southwest into the southern
Plains and northward into Kansas. The U.S.
Drought Monitor gives its highest drought rating, D4 (exceptional),
to portions of southern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. Heavy rains including
severe thunderstorms have eased short-term drought in Illinois, Iowa,
and southward into Arkansas, but ongoing drought concerns may linger.
The recent heavy rains and flooding ended dryness concerns over most
of Hawaii.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook calls
for dry conditions persisting through June in the Southwest and the
southern and central Plains, despite temporary improvement in some
areas. Also, drought is expected to expand in Kansas and eastern Colorado.
Some drought improvement is predicted for areas in the northern Rockies
and northern Plains, as well as the Mississippi Valley and eastern
Plains. Drought is expected to continue in North Carolina and possibly
expand into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

For the nation as a whole, the U.S. Spring
Outlook for April through June indicates below-normal precipitation
for much of the central and southern Plains, as well as the Southeast
and Gulf Coast. Above normal precipitation is favored across the northern
Plains and Great Lakes region as well as Hawaii. The remainder of
the country, including Alaska, has equal chances of above, near or
below normal precipitation.

Meanwhile, above normal temperatures
are indicated for the Southwest eastward into the Southeast and the
northwest islands of Hawaii; below normal temperatures are likely
for the northern Plains, northern Rockies and Washington State. Western
Alaska and the panhandle may see above-normal temperatures. The remainder
of the country has equal chances of above, near or below normal temperature.

An equal chance, either for temperature
or precipitation, is predicted when there are no reliable and skillful
signals on which to base the seasonal outlook.

“There is a silver lining in today’s
announcement,” said Johnson. “NOAA’s National Hydrologic
Assessment does not indicate a dramatic flooding potential this spring
for the contiguous U.S.” However, substantial snowpack in the
West has produced areas of above average flood risk. Wet fall and
near normal winter conditions have primed the Red River of the North,
the boundary between North Dakota and Minnesota, for flooding this
spring. Also, recent heavy rains across the Ohio Valley region and
southern Mississippi have caused flooding on rivers, increasing the
risk for future flooding.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated
to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction
and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental
stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources. Through
the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA
is working with its federal partners and 60 countries to develop a
global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.