tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/local-elections-10573/articlesLocal elections – The Conversation2018-05-08T13:03:49Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/963022018-05-08T13:03:49Z2018-05-08T13:03:49ZHow does Theresa May cling to power? Here's the secret to her 'success'<p>When Theresa May’s Conservative government hobbled back into Downing Street, bloodied and bruised, after 2017’s general election, the smart money was on the British prime minister not lasting until Christmas. She had lost her parliamentary majority and with it, seemingly most of her authority. She faced the nightmare of negotiating a Brexit deal with the European Union while being unable to face down either the hard-Brexit faction in her own cabinet or the powerful Remain faction in parliament, which included some Conservative backbenchers. Instead of Britain being able to play off rival EU countries against each for its own benefit, as many predicted, it’s the EU that has been able to exploit UK divisions.</p>
<p>Compounding these problems, May’s government has endured a constant stream of scandals and displayed serial incompetence. It started with the leaden-footed response to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/grenfell-tower-39675">Grenfell fire</a> in June 2017 and was evident again over the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/windrush-52562">Windrush</a> scandal. <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-rudd-resign-tory-government-minister-step-down-a8329111.html">Four cabinet ministers</a> have been forced out in recent months: Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, over his personal conduct; Priti Patel, the international development secretary, over her contacts with Israeli politicians; Damien Green, the first secretary of state, over misleading statements about material found on his computer; and Amber Rudd, the home secretary, over Windrush. For sheer variation in this multitude of cock-ups, only the dog days of John Major’s government in the 1990s comes close.</p>
<p>Amid this smell of decay, most governments could expect to find themselves 20 points behind in the polls, just as Major’s Conservatives were. And yet May’s party is <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/05/02/voting-intention-conservatives-42-labour-38-30-apr/">four points</a> ahead of the opposition Labour party. The predicted carnage facing the Tories in the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/local-elections-10573">local elections</a> never materialised, even in London, where they comfortably held on to their flagship councils. All of a sudden, Conservative politicians have a spring in their step. Some <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5695775/Local-election-results-prove-theres-one-man-Theresa-rely-save-her.html">commentators</a> wonder whether May might survive to fight the next general election when the conventional wisdom had been that she would leave after navigating Brexit – if she wasn’t pole-axed by her own MPs first.</p>
<h2>Least-worst option</h2>
<p>So, what’s going on? It’s not that May has suddenly transformed into a political colossus – although it’s important not to underestimate her strengths. She was widely praised for her calm but firm reaction to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/skripal-attack-51185">Salisbury poisoning</a>, and marshalling a coordinated international response to Russia. On Brexit, May secured a transition deal with the EU and has displayed enough flexibility to hold her party together – at least for now. Among voters there seems to be quiet admiration for her perseverance and willingness to soldier on. But she is not widely loved, has no ideological devotees, was badly exposed as a poor campaigner in the general election, and faced questions over her own competence during the Windrush scandal.</p>
<p>May remains prime minister because she is held in place by circumstances, both internal to the government and external. If there were a Conservative leadership election tomorrow, it’s very hard to predict who would win. Brexiteers like Boris Johnson, David Davis, Michael Gove and even Jacob Rees-Mogg might run but each would have difficulty reaching out to Remainers and those who favour a soft Brexit. But from the latter camp, chancellor Philip Hammond would face the opposite problem of appealing to Brexiteers. Rudd’s immediate chances look to be gone.</p>
<p>Against this backdrop, May appears the least-worst option – a reluctant Remainer who sees it as her duty to push through Brexit, while being forced to listen to her colleagues on how to do it. For many Conservative MPs and cabinet ministers, that might be better than an uncertain leadership contest that could hand the prize to someone detested by at least one side of the Brexit divide. In time, the new home secretary, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/sajid-javid-10092">Sajid Javid</a>, might emerge as a unity candidate, but he is not yet a big enough beast.</p>
<p>Internally, May is held in place by the competing ambitions of her would-be successors and the delicate balance within her party over Brexit. But accidents can happen. It would take 48 Tory MPs to <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/10/1922-committee-how-tories-men-grey-suits-wield-power">trigger a confidence vote</a> in the leader, and some may already have voiced their desire for that. The argument over Britain’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-customs-union-would-free-the-uk-to-strike-trade-deals-but-it-doesnt-solve-every-brexit-problem-95601">customs relations</a> with the EU after Brexit could tip a few more in that direction.</p>
<p>The external reason behind May’s continuing tenure is Labour’s failure to inflict serious electoral damage on the government. After eight years of a tired and stale administration that stumbles from one crisis to another, the opposition should be streets ahead in the polls. It ought to be making net gains of 500-1,000 council seats in local elections, as successful opposition parties have done in the past. Instead, and despite Labour’s performance in 2017’s general election, which was better than expected, there is an unmistakable sense that many voters remain wary of Jeremy Corbyn and his party. The Conservatives will not be punished electorally until swing voters feel comfortable voting the opposition into government.</p>
<p>In the years prior to Tony Blair’s Labour Party taking office in 1997, the opposition led the Conservatives by 20-30 points. Before Labour lost office in 2010, David Cameron’s Conservatives led by 20 points. These poll leads ultimately shrank but they were indicative of a change in public mood. That does not appear to be the case now. Despite the adulation of Corbyn by his supporters, voters remain sceptical, even suspicious. On <a href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j6obrrc7za/YG%2520Trackers%2520-%2520Best%2520Prime%2520Minister.pdf">YouGov’s</a> tracker poll of who would make the best prime minister, Corbyn trails May by ten points.</p>
<p>The extreme electoral pressure that would likely prove fatal for May’s premiership is simply not there. Meanwhile, the clashing ambitions and mutual ideological hostility of her cabinet rivals ensures that they <a href="https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/are-the-pms-rivals-cancelling-one-another-out">cancel each other out</a>. These fortuitous internal and external circumstances allow May to keep the show on the road. But it’s an unstable state of affairs and she is always only ever one crisis from losing her job.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96302/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>She lurches from crisis to crisis but the prime minister remains in post. How does she do it?Tom Quinn, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/959632018-05-04T10:26:29Z2018-05-04T10:26:29ZLocal elections 2018: how to understand this messy result<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217738/original/file-20180504-166900-1djfnap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;rect=110%2C99%2C3379%2C2226&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">PA/Victoria Jones</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/english-local-elections-2018-52799">local elections</a> across England on May 3 were the first major test of public opinion since prime minister Theresa May lost the Conservatives’ parliamentary majority in <a href="http://www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526130068">2017’s snap election</a> and returned at the head of a minority government. As then, multiple localised contests defy any single national narrative. As then, the emerging picture is a virtual stalemate between the Conservatives and Labour.</p>
<p>Voters across large swaths of England cast their ballots this year. All the seats in London’s 32 boroughs were up for grabs, as were all the seats in four metropolitan boroughs, seven non-metropolitan districts and one unitary authority. A proportion of seats in 106 other local authorities were also being contested, not to mention five local mayoralities and the new metro mayor for the Sheffield City Region combined authority. If it sounds confusing, it is. Local democracy in England is a kaleidoscopic mess.</p>
<p>Britain has become used to hyper-dramatic elections in recent years. The 2018 contest, by contrast, was much more low key. It was also a mixed night for both the Conservatives and Labour. Overall the Tories have trod water, with no significant changes in their total number of council seats and, at the time of writing, no change in the total number of councils they control. Labour has increased slightly its tally of councillors, but without translating these gains into control of additional councils.</p>
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<span class="caption">Corbyn casts his vote.</span>
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<p>This aggregate-level continuity conceals a great deal of local upheaval. For instance, the Tories lost <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-43999868">Trafford</a> in the North West, with Labour now the largest party in a hung council, but they gained control of both Peterborough and Basildon councils. Labour gained <a href="https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn-plymouth-1531932">Plymouth</a> from the Conservatives but lost control of both Derby and Nuneaton and Bedworth councils. Labour also picked up seats across London without gaining control of councils.</p>
<p>It was a much clearer picture for the Liberal Democrats. The party has so far picked up around 40 councillors across England and won control of <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/local-election-2018-liberal-democrats-seize-richmonduponthames-from-the-conservatives-a3830906.html">Richmond-upon-Thames</a> council. An electoral pact there between the party and the Greens helped to deprive the Tories of 28 seats, with 24 of them going to the Liberal Democrats. </p>
<p>It was also a much clearer picture for the United Kingdom Independence Party. The party lost ground everywhere, haemorrhaging all but a handful of seats. UKIP has exerted a huge influence over British politics in the past four years, but it now seems in a post-Brexit death spiral.</p>
<h2>The expectation game</h2>
<p>The actual results, of course, are only part of the story. Expectations also matter. The Conservatives won last year’s general election but fell far short of the anticipated landslide victory. Labour lost last year’s general election but deprived the Tories of their majority. By exceeding unfathomably low expectations, Corbyn emerged as the clear winner in the eyes of his supporters. </p>
<p>Labour has clearly not won the expectations game this year. There was huge optimism that grassroots campaigning would again drive a Labour surge. In the event, momentum from the 2017 general election was not sustained. The party failed to take control of many of the London boroughs that it had to win, including Barnet, Wandsworth and Kensington and Chelsea, the scene of the tragic <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/grenfell-tower-39675">Grenfell fire</a>. The party also failed to take control of Swindon council in Wiltshire. Corbyn visited the area five times during the campaign, seemingly to no avail.</p>
<p>The Conservatives have arguably won the expectation game. A few months ago, the party was reportedly bracing itself for extensive losses, including a potential wipe-out in London. Neither outcome materialised. The Tories have certainly lost ground in areas that supported Remain in the 2016 <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/eu-referendum-2016">Brexit referendum</a>, but this tendency is consistent with the party’s performance in the general election. Crucially, the Tories remain a strong presence in English local government. And they have not been wiped out in London.</p>
<p>What will be the effect of this on national party politics? For the government, and especially for May, there will almost certainly be huge relief. The party will be disappointed at its losses, but will draw comfort from its gains and especially from the knowledge that, despite its recent problems over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/windrush-52562">Windrush</a> scandal and its ongoing civil war over Brexit, voters have not punished it. May’s authority could even be bolstered by the outcome of these elections. Ministers can return to the job of hammering out an agreed party line on Brexit. </p>
<p>For Labour, there are more questions to be asked. Despite facing a hopelessly divided government, despite claiming the scalps of several ministers in recent months, despite the huge increase in its membership, and despite the local activism, the opposition has failed to make massive inroads. Corbyn and his new-old Labour party undoubtedly inspires huge confidence among some supporters. But there are no signs yet that anyone outside his base views him and as his party as a viable alternative to the Tories.</p>
<p>For the time being, many voters seem to be reserving judgement on the government. They also seem to be reserving judgement on the opposition. Much will probably hinge on the terms of any final Brexit deal. Assuming the next general election is in 2022, there is still much to play for.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95963/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Voting is all over the place in 2018. But Labour is the party with most to think about after this result.Nicholas Allen, Reader in Politics, Royal HollowayJohn Bartle, Professor of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/926162018-05-02T13:58:10Z2018-05-02T13:58:10ZLocal elections are a chance to address English regional inequality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/216663/original/file-20180427-135806-1lu158h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Various regions in England go to the polls on May 3 but do they have enough power to change things?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bagelmouse/17246052428/in/photolist-JAg8mP-7Z4sNb-sgYwxw-81nL45-bSW2Xa-sescLM-VAV3Xe-bE2kx5-bgPQai-7Z9swd-egVY7R-8ZgB1Q-8ATaug-dwLJTy-rzDR5z-dp1GA-JJhrM-smY2HP-JCmMC-GQRJcL-6uJoBt-88HbqE-6tPr6S-bgPPkZ-7Z1tD4">RachelH_/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than 4,000 seats will be contested in local elections across England on May 3. Most of these lie outside London, in metropolitan and shire districts and in unitary councils, where 45% of the electorate voted to stay in the EU, compared to 60% of Londoners. </p>
<p>These elections will be an important further indicator of regional divisions across England, where political differences reflect serious imbalances in wealth, opportunity and power.</p>
<p>Below the level of the devolved nations (Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland), there are very few decision-making links or channels of communication in the UK for central government to connect with the regions. This over-centralised governance structure is at the heart of a national problem – the ongoing imbalance in regional growth across the UK.</p>
<p>London is more dominant over the UK regions than Paris is over France in terms of financial and legislative decision-making. Fiscal centralisation – the lack of power to raise or spend resources at the local level – is central to the problem. </p>
<p>Local taxes account for 1.6% of GDP in the UK, compared to 16% in Sweden <a href="http://www.oecd.org/tax/federalism/fiscal-decentralisation-database.htm#D_9">and 13% in Denmark</a>. More than 73% of the revenues for the West Midlands Combined Authority (which includes the UK’s biggest city, Birmingham) come directly from central government transfers. Compare this figure to the equivalent percentage for Berlin (33%), Madrid (32%), New York City (26%), Paris (16%), Frankfurt (13%) and Tokyo (13%). No money means no power. </p>
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<span class="caption">London looms large over the rest of the country.</span>
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<h2>With power comes responsibility</h2>
<p>Rebalancing the UK economy is critical to the country’s long-term social and political stability. And it must be done by promoting growth in the regions outside of London and the South-East. This is in the interests of the whole country, beyond the media spin about the haves (London and the South-East) and the have-nots (everywhere else). </p>
<p>There are critical and worsening tensions between centre and periphery. A major trigger is the growing imbalance in public funding in areas as diverse as education and transport, which privileges London and the South-East at the expense of other regions. </p>
<p>For example, London-based schools now outperform those in all other regions at GCSE-level as a result of significant investments <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/Implementing%20the%20London%20Challenge%20-%20final_0.pdf#page=5">focused on the capital</a>. And in terms of transport infrastructure investment, London receives £1,500 per head of its population more than the North of England <a href="https://www.ippr.org/news-and-media/press-releases/new-transport-figures-reveal-london-gets-1-500-per-head-more-than-the-north-but-north-west-powerhouse-catching-up">and more than half of all UK transport spending</a>.</p>
<p>Economic wealth, the ability to create it and access the benefits it brings, are hugely unevenly distributed. This imbalance of resource allocation and of access to opportunity underlies disadvantages in health and social welfare and drives political division.</p>
<p>The metro mayors and the combined authorities are part of the solution, supporting a drive for development in the city-regions. But they can only do this with devolved power and resources from London.</p>
<p>With power comes responsibility – for developing and implementing locally appropriate growth plans. Regional industrial strategies are needed, which focus on specific locales and promote smart specialisation. They need to be customised and coordinated to exploit the distinctive assets and capabilities of different regions, and also compensate for unique local constraints. In the West Midlands and in many areas of the UK, skills shortages, linked to lower levels of innovation, productivity and competitiveness, <a href="https://blog.bham.ac.uk/cityredi/birmingham-economic-review-2017-conclusion/">are a major constraint</a>.</p>
<h2>Inclusive growth</h2>
<p>Focusing on productivity and economic growth alone will increase imbalances within regions that merely mirror the national problem. In the West Midlands, for example, growth could easily come solely from an area such as affluent Solihull while the post-industrial Black Country gets left behind. Regional growth needs to be inclusive. </p>
<p>This requires support from both the private and the public sector. Investments from both should balance support for improving company-level performance with schemes to bring the unemployed and the disadvantaged into the work place and help the least-skilled. Reducing the burden on public sector services is the other side of the coin to productivity growth in the private sector.</p>
<p>On top of the long-term and growing spatial inequalities, Brexit brings with it a threat to worsen the economic prospects of the UK’s disadvantaged regions, relative to London and the South-East. But it also offers the opportunity to develop international competitiveness, export-led growth and inward investment across all regions of the UK. </p>
<p>This will only happen if central government avoids being sucked further into the political black hole of uncertainty <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-why-uncertainty-is-bad-for-economies-64334">that Brexit is creating</a>. And it will only happen if the government has the confidence to follow a more devolved model of governance.</p>
<p>The upcoming local elections will be an important indicator of the mood of the English regions. But, as we now know from experience, elections are too blunt as instruments for resolving complex issues. Rebalancing the economy and restoring greater social and political cohesion may need a different kind of politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Collinson is a member of the West Midlands Mayor&#39;s &quot;Funding for Growth Commission&quot; (unpaid).</span></em></p>London remains incredibly dominant over the UK regions in terms of financial and legislative decision-making.Simon Collinson, Deputy Pro-Vice Chancellor and Professor of International Business, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/958212018-05-01T10:00:05Z2018-05-01T10:00:05ZFive reasons to care about the local elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/216857/original/file-20180430-135851-yayfep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;rect=12%2C0%2C8155%2C5334&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/5C58vkFXdYs">Michael D Beckwit/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On May 3, the local elections will see contests in 150 English local authorities. Attention is largely focused on expected outcomes in the 32 London boroughs but the majority of the 4,350 seats will be contested outside of the capital. The same day will also see five mayoral elections in London and the first combined authority mayor elected for the Sheffield city region.</p>
<p>Local elections are important but unfortunately, second order contests still fail to receive the attention they deserve. However, there are a number of reasons why we should pay close attention to those that take place those on Thursday.</p>
<h2>Sending a message to national parties</h2>
<p>This is the first opportunity for voters to make their opinion known at the ballot box since the 2017 general election. And, notwithstanding an unexpected election, this will also be their last opportunity before Brexit is finalised.</p>
<p>Of course, high profile issues such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/labour-and-anti-semitism-these-are-the-roots-of-the-problem-on-the-left-94923">antisemitism</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/windrush-52562">Windrush scandal</a> and Amber Rudd’s departure from the Home Office will affect voting intentions for Labour and the Conservatives but it’s important to remember that electoral behaviour at the local level is both complex and fluid. With these points in mind, it would be a mistake to assume that May 3 will be a referendum on the government – or the opposition.</p>
<h2>Local issues matter</h2>
<p>Local authorities are responsible for a significant proportion our public services. Their budgets are handed to them from Westminster but it’s up to them how they are spent. As financial restraint becomes increasingly apparent and the effects play out in local communities, doorstep evidence appears to be indicating that local issues <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/09/local-elections-peterborough-brexit-labour-conservatives">dominate public discourse</a>. Whether concerns relate to employment and housing or potholes and fly tipping, it seems that day-to-day experience is shaping voting intentions.</p>
<h2>Labour and the Conservatives under pressure</h2>
<p>The English political landscape is diverse and the local elections will reflect that. There has been a clear tendency since the EU referendum to characterise the country’s political opinion as a homogenous entity. In reality, the Brexit vote highlighted the <a href="http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/brexit-public-divided-uk-1-5374532">diversity of political opinion across England</a> and this will be upheld on Thursday. It’s unclear as to whether Labour will make the much needed inroads it needs to firm up its base for a future general election, rather, it’s more likely that the party will experience the majority of its success in areas of London where it already enjoys support.</p>
<p>Any gains the Conservatives make will be elsewhere, further accentuating the singularity of the capital and the continued north-south divide. What’s more, most contests will take place in parts of the county where independent and local party politics are more likely to thrive. Given concerns that surround Labour and the Conservatives, it is possible that some voters will opt for a non-mainstream alternative on Thursday.</p>
<h2>Close races</h2>
<p>A number of majorities are under threat. The London Conservative strongholds of Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster are under particular scrutiny and while a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/26/londons-flagship-tory-boroughs-may-be-out-of-labour-reach-poll-predicts">YouGov Survey for Queen Mary University of London</a> suggests Labour may fail to take these London councils, the party will, at the very least, make significant electoral inroads and disrupt long held majorities. </p>
<p>A number of majorities outside the capital also look precarious and despite most of these councils contesting only a portion of their seats, Labour, the Conservatives and indeed the Liberal Democrats will hope to make new gains or recapture old ground in these councils.</p>
<h2>Shaking things up</h2>
<p>Multi-party politics operates in English local councils and non-mainstream options continue to quietly grow. Though the predicted demise of UKIP will reduce small party representation, the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43644027">Greens</a> have more than doubled their candidacy. </p>
<p>Arguing for an “end to one-party-state councils” and a “Green on every council”, the party is articulating an explicitly “bottom-up” approach and predicts success. Relatively new to local politics is the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/26/vote-womens-equality-councils-budgetary-paralysis-local-elections">Women’s Equality party</a> which will field 30 candidates and if successful, bring a gendered narrative to the council chamber. So while Labour and the Conservatives might take all the headlines, there’s an awful lot more going on around the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95821/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karin Bottom does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Councils decide important matters, so it's worth turning out to vote in local elections on May 3.Karin Bottom, Lecturer in British Politics and Public Policy, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/954672018-04-24T11:09:53Z2018-04-24T11:09:53ZWill Windrush citizens also lose their voting rights? Researchers will be watching to find out<p>Theresa May’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/statement-from-the-new-prime-minister-theresa-may">first words</a> as prime minister on the steps of Downing Street signalled that she would put “fighting against burning injustice” at the heart of her political agenda. Highlighting inequalities across the lines of ethnicity, class, gender and age, she set out her “mission to make Britain a country that works for everyone”.</p>
<p>These bold ambitions have been put under scrutiny as details have emerged about the way May’s government has treated people who moved to the UK from the Caribbean between the 1940s and 1970s. The Home Office didn’t keep records for many of those members of the so-called <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43782241">“Windrush generation”</a> and, in 2010, their landing cards were destroyed by the Home Office. Changes to the law subsequently required to them have this paperwork to work, receive benefits, access healthcare and many have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/windrush-generation-the-history-of-unbelonging-95021">left feeling unwanted</a> and concerned about their futures in the UK. Bureaucracy and paperwork, boring as it may sound, can make a fundamental difference to our lives.</p>
<p>Now some of these same people may also be prompted for paperwork when wanting to exercise their democratic rights. For the first time in British elections, citizens will be asked to prove their identity at the polling station before being able to vote in the 2018 local elections in England. For now, it’s just a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/voter-id-pilots">pilot</a> and only five authorities will take part. But the government has set a trajectory that will see it steam ahead with expanding this policy. Its <a href="https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/2017-manifestos/Conservative+Manifesto+2017.pdf">2017 election manifesto</a> vowed to “legislate to ensure that a form of identification must be presented before voting”.</p>
<p>We’ll be monitoring the pilots to see if it does end up limiting the rights of certain groups. </p>
<h2>A worthwhile exercise?</h2>
<p>Rather than stamping out “bogus immigrants” the aim of introducing voter ID is to stamp out electoral fraud. Electoral fraud, however, isn’t really a problem at polling stations. Alongside <a href="http://www.ncl.ac.uk/gps/staff/profile/alistairclark.html">Alistair Clark</a>, we found in a <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/clark-james-poll-workers.pdf">recent study</a> of the 2015 general election, that less than 1% of the officials working in polling stations were concerned that there might have been a problem with fraud in their location. Where there were concerns, polling officials stressed that this was often due to a lack of understanding of the voter, rather than any deliberate attempt to manipulate the process. For example, one Lithuanian citizen was confused that she couldn’t vote in the general election, even though she could in local and European elections. Can you blame her?</p>
<p>Instead, a far greater problem was people asking to vote who were not on the register, presumably because they were not registered or had gone to wrong polling station. Over two thirds of polling stations turned away at least one citizen from voting because their name was not on the electoral register. In other words, paperwork and bureaucracy can deny people their democratic right.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780230308428">evidence</a> is that voter identification can be another bureaucratic barrier to the exercise of the right to vote. The effect varies a lot. It depends on how tough the identification requirements are, how it is administered, the level education about the paperwork requirements and whether activist groups launch counter mobilisation efforts to get those who might be left out to the polling stations.</p>
<p>The simple truth, however, is that the more bureaucratic you make the voting process, the less likely that people vote. Voter ID reforms can systematically disadvantage those groups who are less likely to have whatever form of ID is required.</p>
<h2>Fact checking the government’s response</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/voter-id-documents-polling-electoral-fraud-chloe-smith-a8317341.html">minister</a> in charge of this matter and the <a href="https://www.localgov.co.uk/Whitehall-defends-voter-ID-reform-against-accusations-of-discrimination/45171">Cabinet Office</a> have responded that it is “simply not the case” that voter ID could prevent eligible people from voting. After all, the system works in Northern Ireland where it was rolled out 15 years ago. And ID is required to “collect a parcel from the post office, rent a car, or travel abroad”. So why not voting?</p>
<p>The Northern Ireland analogy is a red herring, however. In Northern Ireland citizens are given <a href="http://www.eoni.org.uk/Electoral-Identity-Card/Electoral-Identity-Card-FAQs">free electoral identity cards</a> to ensure that people are not turned away from the polls without casting their vote. That was the system that the Electoral Commission recommended for Britain. The government <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/2016/12/28/voter-id-is-a-risky-reform-when-8m-people-are-already-missing-from-the-electoral-register/">said</a> this would be too great a “financial and administrative burden”. There have also not been any studies to test how many would-be voters have been turned away at polling stations in Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>Although paperwork is needed for other tasks – and as exciting as collecting a parcel is from the post office – they’re not as time sensitive as voting. Voting hours on polling are restricted. There is no voting the next day. So being turned away for forgetting your ID or not having the right ID is much more likely to mean game over for a voter.</p>
<p>Since 2010, the government has placed the burden of proving voter identity on the citizen. The first step in registering to vote is <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41293-018-0085-9">providing your national insurance number</a> . This would then be checked against a government database before eligible citizens would be added. A combination of voter registration drives from civil society groups, other simultaneous changes and high profile electoral contests have kept registration rates temporarily high. But under those reforms, registration rates among the elderly rose, registration rates among the <a href="http://fabians.org.uk/missing-millions/">young dropped</a>.</p>
<p>The government has been accused of being <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/22/few-tories-grasp-windrush-flaws-hostile-environment-immigration">slow to respond</a> to evidence as cases emerged with the Windrush row. Evidence will be readily available with the pilots. The Electoral Commission is under a statutory requirement to evaluate the pilots and those assessments alongside other research must be carefully listened to.</p>
<p>Alistair Clark and I also have a survey in the field in non-pilot areas that will produce more evidence. Whichever direction this is in, May must be prepared to change course if citizens are denied their right to vote to ensure that the UK really does have a democracy that works for everyone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95467/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby’s research has been externally funded by the British Academy, Leverhulme Trust, AHRC, ESRC, Nuffield Foundation and the McDougall Trust. He has written commissioned policy reports for national and international organisations and given invited evidence to Parliamentary committees. He is currently a Fellow to the UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Democratic Participation and Advisor to the Law Commission&#39;s Review of Electoral Law. He is also on the Scientific Board for Electoral Expert Review.</span></em></p>A pilot requiring some voters to show ID in May's local elections could be the next blow for the Windrush generation.Toby S James, Senior Lecturer in British & Comparative Politics, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/772692017-05-05T15:43:19Z2017-05-05T15:43:19ZLocal and mayoral elections 2017: results roundup<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168114/original/file-20170505-21018-65k4ek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Big gains for the Conservative party.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If the general election on June 8 can be considered British politics’ “main event” for 2017, then the recent local council and mayoral elections on May 4 can be seen of something of a dress rehearsal. </p>
<p>Across the country, voters went to the polls in 88 council areas, with 34 councils up for grabs in England, and all of Scotland’s (32) and Wales’ (22) councils being decided. </p>
<p>Across six city-regions, including Greater Manchester, Liverpool, the West Midlands and the West of England, voters also had the opportunity to vote for a metro mayor – the democratic component of former chancellor George Osborne’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32726171">ambitious devolution agenda</a>, which has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/devolution-plan-could-be-a-poisoned-chalice-for-cities-41848">steadily unfurling since the summer of 2014</a>.</p>
<p>While municipal elections are never really big events in their own right – they often provide an indication of the country’s mood. And with the general election only six weeks away, it is likely that all parties will be certain to pounce on any positive results as a means to bolster their campaigns.</p>
<h2>Scores on the doors</h2>
<p>It didn’t take long for a relatively clear picture to emerge as to who the big winners and losers were – albeit with variations within the devolved states.</p>
<p>The Conservatives, with gains of over 400 councillors and eleven councils (at the time of writing) were clearly the main winners, and will likely approach the next six weeks with a renewed confidence <a href="https://theconversation.com/strong-and-stable-leadership-inside-the-conservatives-election-slogan-77121">that their message</a> is resonating with the country.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, UKIP have gone into tailspin – losing almost all of their councillors overnight – though they have taken the Burnley and Padiham West seat on Lancashire County Council. </p>
<p>But again, this is good news for Theresa May and the Tories, who have evidently wrestled back ownership of the Brexit agenda. For UKIP, however, with the referendum behind them and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38057251">a calamitous 12 months</a> since Nigel Farage stepped down as leader, they now face <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-local-elections-results-2017-latest-douglas-carswell-mp-conservatives-a7719001.html">an existential crisis</a>.</p>
<p>For Labour the picture is, at best, mixed. In England, they <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/local-elections-2017-results-analysis/">have been decimated by the Conservatives</a>, losing more than 250 seats – all this within councils where Labour needs to be competitive. Indeed in Copeland, in the Lake District, the site of <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/copeland-by-election-vote-cumbria-labour-historic-defeat-trudy-harrison-gillian-troughton-jeremy-a7596766.html">an embarrassing by-election loss in February</a>, Labour’s candidate Gillian Troughton <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-39814629">lost her council seat</a>. North of the border, Labour’s long-term decline looks set to continue, having <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/labour-loses-control-glasgow-city-10360847">lost control of Glasgow Council</a> for the first time in 37 years.</p>
<p>If there is a glimmer of hope for Labour, it is that <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-04-24/shock-poll-suggests-tories-ahead-in-wales/">the recent polls</a>, which showed them at real risk of losing their grip on Wales, turned out to be bleaker than reality. So although Labour have so far <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/3c6a4e42-9efd-4440-89df-647121c87452/wales-local-elections-2017">lost control of three councils</a>, no other parties have made major inroads. And the retention of Swansea will be at least some comfort.</p>
<p>These local elections also seem to have left the Lib Dems – who were hoping to bounce back after an electoral drubbing in 2015 – with more questions than answers. Having failed to take any councils, and having <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/42069d65-f3b1-41e2-b3e9-35ac9d799a1a/england-local-elections-2017//">lost 22 councillors</a> so far in England alone, they will be scratching their heads, wondering what’s happened.</p>
<h2>Metro mayors and the cities</h2>
<p>Crucially, with much of the council elections centred on the counties, the election of the metro mayors provides a useful barometer of the mood in the cities – something which could underpin the extent of any Conservative rout on June 8.</p>
<p>So despite a very mixed bag elsewhere, Labour’s confidence can be boosted with comfortable victories in <a href="http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-mayor-election-results-live-12991261">both Greater Manchester</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ad45b570-6d7c-4e65-9771-159210d059b4/mayor-of-the-liverpool-city-region">the Liverpool City Region</a> for Andy Burnham and Steve Rotherham respectively. </p>
<p>But elsewhere the Conservatives have plenty to celebrate. As well as taking victory in the West of England – which includes Bristol – with Tim Bowles, they have also scored a <a href="http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/tees-mayor-election-result-live-12988694">shock election victory in Tees Valley with Ben Houchen</a> elected as the first Tees mayor.</p>
<p>And although turnout was far from stunning, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39817224">coming in at just below 30%</a> in Manchester, Liverpool and the West of England, it was higher than <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/05/new-statesman-2017-local-elections-liveblog">the 10% forecast the night before</a> – which lends a greater legitimacy to those taking up office.</p>
<h2>Victory for devolution?</h2>
<p>Although Burnham and Rotherham join Sadiq Kahn in running three of the UK’s largest cities, the presence of Conservative leadership in a number of the core cities might not be a bad thing for the devolution agenda. </p>
<p>This is because, while it is expected that the new metro mayors will stand up for their regions – and stand up to government – particularly as we enter Brexit negotiations, that they are all not from the same political party may well provide the political stability that ensures their continued survival.</p>
<p>But whether the post will be as successful as the mayor of London remains to be seen and will undoubtedly be further coloured by the general election next month. </p>
<p>Beyond this, ultimately, the results make it clear that Brexit remains the main political driving force behind the elections, with many of the results reflecting the lines set out after the referendum of June 2016. </p>
<p>However, as the dust settles on this battle, and as we approach the main event, it’s becoming increasingly clear whose hand will most likely be raised in the air come Friday June 9.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77269/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Nurse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Everything you need to know about the recent local and mayoral elections.Alex Nurse, Lecturer in Planning, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/590432016-05-10T11:21:46Z2016-05-10T11:21:46ZThe Northern Powerhouse needs to be more than a slogan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121684/original/image-20160509-20612-u56ltx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is the government turning its back on localism?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">DavidGraham86/shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/local-elections-how-the-parties-fared-59013">local elections</a> that took place across England were somewhat overshadowed by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/sadiq-khan-british-dream-now-a-reality-for-londons-first-muslim-mayor-58945">London Mayoral contest</a>, along with the fifth cycle of elections to devolved national institutions in Northern Ireland, <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-election-2016-disaster-for-labour-reality-check-for-the-snp-and-the-tories-are-back-59007">Scotland</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/wales-ukip-and-plaid-gain-new-assembly-seats-as-labour-holds-on-to-power-59012">Wales</a>. </p>
<p>The lack of relative profile given to the English local council elections appears to reflect the contradictory approach of a Conservative government. On the one hand arguing that <a href="http://www.localism-agenda.com/background/">localism</a> should be advanced, while at the same time viewing local government democracy as a relatively <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/dec/17/councils-face-billions-more-budget-cuts-april-england-local-authorities-funding-settlement">trivial matter</a>.</p>
<p>This is a partial and profoundly misleading depiction. The local dimension plays a key role in the democratic process, operating at a closer level to citizens and thus providing a significant link between politics and the people. </p>
<p>However, the civic relationship between citizens and local government has been complicated by ongoing <a href="http://www.ippr.org/publications/decentralisation-decade">decentralisation of the governance</a> of England over the past two years – with the North of England most affected. This is because the region has proven central to the “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-unveils-devolution-revolution">devolution revolution</a>”, heralded by George Osborne. </p>
<p>Two interconnected and overlapping political projects, the so-called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-northern-powerhouse-what-actually-is-it-50927">Northern Powerhouse</a>” and a series of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-leave-schools-out-of-new-deals-for-city-regions-39888">city region deals</a>”, have sought to redress regional economic imbalances, give (allegedely) more powers to local authorities, and enhance political leadership via the introduction of directly elected metro mayors. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121695/original/image-20160509-20575-1eve2o4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip">
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<span class="caption">Whitby pier: Part of Osborne’s Powerhouse?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/darrenflinders/17208229128/in/photolist-sdCEZE-d56Lry-s3cwuz-ckg1LQ-perXqB-nKpXSp-e7VpfB-rvHcpi-8zjaQ4-bbKGgx-2hPgpq-tpoWt5-8ZCM4a-of3DQ2-n1mAcU-pehbJ5-8puHbm-ifY4ne-oB1es7-rjq5VJ-fNxDJg-7VQMWc-tQaFrb-pkAkQQ-qm1GMe-s1uu8h-qgVKhM-rxNGoL-8iPVh1-dLT4sm-85qR8D-sifhko-aTbF5p-nQqcj3-f5DdNj-6hPDsx-5p7A7B-pgfpzK-pJFGYX-bzuKbq-rYFNJz-dY9PdQ-kJsCr5-oagHBr-7r1zSX-qqtu4K-8Ntk7D-obX3oc-9r6qAo-fc8Xg4">Darren Flinders/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>However, looking at last week’s local elections results, there seems to be little to suggest that the Conservative government’s focus on rejuvenating the economic fortunes of the North has encouraged greater citizen participation. Some suggest that one of the principle objectives of the “Northern Powerhouse” initiative is to provide opportunities for the Conservatives to make inroads into <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-labour-under-jeremy-corbyn-is-stuck-on-repeat-after-this-poor-election-showing-59020">Labour’s Northern strongholds</a>. However, the elections’ results highlight that this could take some time. </p>
<p>Labour maintained its electoral stranglehold on the main metropolitan centres of the North, with few examples of a Conservative “city revival”. The Conservatives strengthened their presence in many of the North’s rural localities, allowing them to challenge claims of a North South political divide. </p>
<p>What was worrying though was the number of votes for the mayoral elections in Liverpool and Salford – where turnout was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-36204443">30.9%</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-36204444">30%</a> – hardly ringing public endorsements for the principle of <a href="https://theconversation.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-mayoral-elections-58319">directly elected mayors</a> after two election cycles. Although turnout in the London mayoral election increased from <a href="https://www.londonelects.org.uk/news-centre/results-and-past-elections/results-2012">38%</a> to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/may/06/uk-elections-sadiq-khan-ahead-in-london-mayoral-race-live-updates">45.3%</a>, the campaign itself drew attention to the potential that personality focused approaches to political leadership often encourage crass and reductive electoral politics. </p>
<p>Only in Bristol, did the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/08/marvin-rees-bristol-mayor-racist-past">mayoral election campaign</a> capture the electorate’s imagination to a much <a href="https://www.bristol.gov.uk/voting-elections/mayor-election-result">greater extent than in 2012</a> – the turnout was higher at <a href="https://www.bristol.gov.uk/voting-elections/mayoral-election-2016-turnout">44.87%</a>. As it stands, turnout for mayoral elections in England has not been over 50% of the electorate – which does not bode well for the forthcoming Greater Manchester mayoral elections to be held in May 2017.</p>
<h2>The power in Powerhouse</h2>
<p>The extent that the “Northern Powerhouse” and city deals initiatives will energise local democracy is open to debate, particularly as many of these reforms have been introduced without citizens being consulted. </p>
<p>The primary focus of the “Northern Powerhouse” narrative has largely been on the <a href="http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/2015/09/22/the-scottish-indyref-one-year-on/">technocratic development of economic synergies through transport infrastructure – with little consideration of its democratic ramifications</a>. Meaning that the democratic link between the “Northern Powerhouse”, city region devolution and civic engagement has been largely overlooked by politicians at both a national and local level.</p>
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<span class="caption">Government has shied away from putting Greater Manchester at the heart of the Northern Powerhouse plan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shahid Khan/shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>There has been little consideration of the impact of developing amalgamated city regional governmental frameworks on the role and resonance of local councillors in their communities. Few “backbench” local councillors have been consulted or involved in the signing of “devo-deals”. They are, in many ways, as uncertain as most citizens about the design and purpose of decentralisation. </p>
<p>The development of city region government raises the possibility that <a href="http://blog.politics.ox.ac.uk/behold-the-manchester-withington-question/">local councillors will be disempowered and become increasingly peripheral</a>. The increasingly complicated formations of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-northern-powerhouse-what-actually-is-it-50927">city-regional government</a> – evident in the diverse forms of “city-deals” signed so far across the North – could leave citizens confused. With the potential to lead to further disengagement from a system people barely understand. </p>
<h2>Oil the wheels</h2>
<p>The transfer of some policy making traditionally associated with local government to combined authorities means that citizens are increasingly unclear about <a href="https://www.gov.uk/understand-how-your-council-works/decision-making">who is responsible for what</a>, especially in terms of public service delivery in their local communities. It is likely that many citizens will lack the necessary political literacy to understand the respective responsibilities of their local councillors, city region representatives, and MPs.</p>
<p>All this seems to suggest that the “goodwill” of central government, combined local authorities and businesses alone will not be sufficient to put real power into the North if the people are not with them. </p>
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<span class="caption">Tees transporter bridge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Graham McAndrew/shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Without plugging into local politics and democracy, the “Northern Powerhouse” will likely lack the popular support it needs to function, remaining only a slogan or an abstract concept that fails to captures the imagination of citizens across the North.</p>
<p>The role of local politics is integral to the success or otherwise of both the “Northern Powerhouse” and “city-region” agendas, especially in terms of democratic accountability and legitimacy. And it is unlikely that either will flourish in the public perception if, as suggested by the results of the recent election, we see a continuing disconnect at local level.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59043/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A closer look at the recent local elections can help to shine a light on the future of the "Northern Powerhouse" and its impact on local democracy in the North of England.Andrew Mycock, Reader in Politics, University of HuddersfieldArianna Giovannini, Lecturer in Politics, University of HuddersfieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/588112016-05-04T10:54:16Z2016-05-04T10:54:16ZThe case for police commissioners<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121032/original/image-20160503-19828-1pacpeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brian A Jackson/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Thursday May 5, voting will get underway for local police and crime commissioners – commonly referred to as a PCC. The chances are that it will be the first time that many people have voted for a PCC, as back in November 2012 when the first PCC elections were held, most people did not bother, resulting in an average <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/30/nine-in-10-cannot-name-local-police-and-commissioner-pcc">turnout of less than 15%</a> of potential voters across England and Wales. Understandably, the elections were dubbed a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/by-extending-the-remit-of-pccs-the-government-is-playing-with-fire-47909">shambles</a>”.</p>
<p>The decision to stage the first PCC elections on a (cold) Thursday in November probably goes a long way to explain why the eventual <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20374139">turnout was so low</a>. Added to that the fact that it was the wettest November in 50 years and, along with a lack of awareness, it’s not surprising most people weren’t bothered enough to turn up to vote.</p>
<p>This time round, tying the PCC elections to the local elections is definitely likely to significantly increase voter turnout. Even if voters only go to vote for their local councillors, while they are there they will be asked to vote for a PCC – two birds with one stone and all that.</p>
<h2>What is a PCC?</h2>
<p>Despite popular opinion, <a href="http://www.apccs.police.uk/role-of-the-pcc/">police and crime commissioners are influential</a> and important because as well as being responsible for the hiring and firing of chief constables, they are charged with holding the <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-quietly-slash-police-fund-7310428">police fund</a>. </p>
<p>This is an annual grant from the Home Office to fund their policing, which is calculated using a formula which takes into account factors such as population size, geography and levels of crime in the 43 police service areas.</p>
<p>It is the PCC’S responsibility to set the budget for the force area, which includes allocating enough money from the overall policing budget to ensure that they can discharge their own functions effectively. </p>
<p>As part of their role, police and crime commissioners must produce a “police and crime plan” which lays out their objectives for policing in their area – including what resources will be made available to their chief constable and how they intend to measure police performance. </p>
<p>The PCC is required to produce an annual report to the public on progress in policing. The plans they develop are therefore very important as they will <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-years-on-from-the-first-uk-police-commissioners-its-time-to-get-ambitious-55692">set the direction and emphasis</a> of your local police force. </p>
<h2>Why bother voting?</h2>
<p>PCCs have to set up and run their own offices with their own staff to monitor progress against the crime plans, measure police performance and administer the policing budget. This is a lot of power for just one person. Ask yourself how you would feel in the very unlikely scenario that your PCC set up his or her administrative centre in a stately home, decorated it with expensive marble flooring, antique furniture and priceless masterpieces – and you hadn’t voted? </p>
<p>They are also able to raise additional police funding by raising the <a href="http://www.politics.co.uk/reference/police-funding">local policing precept</a> from our council tax – if you look at your council tax bill for this year you will see policing itemised along with the fire services. So if you have an opinion on how your council tax is spent, it’s probably worth your while having a think about who should get your vote in your local area.</p>
<p>When it comes to the hiring and firing of chief constables, you clearly want a PCC who knows their stuff. I live in Yorkshire, where this power has been wielded in a big way. The chief constable of West Yorkshire was hired but then was very quickly <a href="http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-police-chief-mark-gilmore-has-suspension-lifted-1-7259869">suspended as part of a probe into police vehicle contracts</a> and the chief constable of South Yorkshire has just been <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36154201">suspended following the Hillsborough inquests</a>. This means that voting for the candidate you trust to wield this power for the public good is pretty important. </p>
<h2>What makes a good PCC?</h2>
<p>Don’t be under the illusion that only ex-police candidates will know anything about crime – or even policing. In fact, having been a police officer might actually produce a narrower perspective of crime solely based on career experience – so what counts as serious crime to you could be considered totally differently to an ex-bobby.</p>
<p>That said, a candidate who appears to know little (or next to nothing) about crime at all is far more worrying. A Channel 4 documentary which aired last year followed the PCC for Kent <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-36093721">Ann Barnes</a>, leading to widespread criticism of the role and claims it made the Kent force into a “laughing stock”. </p>
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<p>In <a href="http://www.channel4.com/programmes/meet-the-police-commissioner">Meet the Police Commissioner</a> Barnes, struggled to explain what her role involved and was filmed painting her nails and incorrectly writing her job title on a whiteboard.</p>
<p>So someone who knows a bit about crime, victimisation and policing, and who is prepared to listen to local views and opinions and challenge the chief constable where and when necessary, would be a start. </p>
<p>And if you list crime as one of your main concerns, then surely you need to have a say in who is in charge of policing your local area.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58811/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Roach (on behalf of University of Huddersfield) received funding to develop and conduct a &#39;feelings of safety&#39; questionnaire for the Office for the PCC for West Yorkshire, in 2013</span></em></p>Here's what you need to know before you cast your vote in the elections for local police crime commissioners.Jason Roach, Reader in Crime and Policing, University of HuddersfieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/582632016-04-28T09:51:56Z2016-04-28T09:51:56ZWhy you should care about the local elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120177/original/image-20160426-1352-1ut7lel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The decision on your doorstep.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Turner Photography/shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Given all the sound, fury and <a href="https://www.rt.com/uk/337650-project-fear-brexit-eu/">misinformation</a> that is the contest for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-young-voters-for-not-bothering-about-the-eu-referendum-58238">EU referendum</a>, people in England could be forgiven for not realising that there are also local elections happening in early May. In a range of district, unitary and metropolitan councils, more than <a href="https://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/English%20Local%20Elections%20Update%20-%20PSA%20Media%20Briefing%20Pack.pdf">2,700 seats</a> will be up for grabs.</p>
<p>There will also be 41 <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19504639">police and crime commissioner contests</a> in England and Wales. Plus, there will be mayoral elections in London, Bristol, Liverpool and Salford. With postal voting now widely used, some people have even begun casting their votes for all these elections.</p>
<p>Local elections are often dismissed as being “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17548547">second order</a>” elections with nothing much at stake. And with at least some justification local elections have previously been deemed the “<a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Irrelevant_Elections.html?id=VG-NAAAAMAAJ&amp;redir_esc=y">irrelevant elections</a>”. Turnout can often be low, particularly when council elections are being held on their own instead of alongside European or general elections. </p>
<p>It is not unusual to find around <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/our-work/our-research/electoral-data">two-thirds</a> of eligible voters staying at home, and only around a third casting a vote for their local council candidates. </p>
<p>This is not helped by the perception that local councils have very little power. Enthusiasm also wanes when it becomes apparent that many councils around the country are effectively dominated by one party, year after year. </p>
<p>Committees in both the <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/CurrentCommittees/64870.aspx">Scottish Parliament</a> and the House of Commons have considered the reasons for low turnout in local elections in recent years, making some quite technical <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmselect/cmpolcon/232/23202.htm">recommendations</a>, such as considering new voting methods, public information campaigns, and altering the terminology used to describe the voting process. </p>
<h2>Why Bother Voting?</h2>
<p>Elections provide voters with a choice of competing candidates, platforms, and parties. They provide a mechanism for holding representatives to account for their performance in office and allow citizens a degree of control over their elected representatives. </p>
<p>If you don’t like what they are doing, don’t just stay at home, get out there and vote for a candidate who may do a better job. Political parties care about who controls local councils. This is why they spend time and money standing for election to them. Holding them accountable for their performance is vital. </p>
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<p>The heated debate over how government cuts have affected <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/dec/17/councils-face-billions-more-budget-cuts-april-england-local-authorities-funding-settlement">local councils</a>, and campaigns to save local public services such as libraries has demonstrated how people are deeply engaged with what happens in their communities. </p>
<p>Some councils have tried to engage people in decision making through <a href="http://www.southlakeland.gov.uk/have-your-say/participatory-budgeting/">participatory structures</a>. The point is that councils can always do things differently, even if they may have reduced and limited sources of income. But control and leadership of a council can lead to very different public policies being pursued. Past attempts by some Conservative councils to experiment with “<a href="http://www.ukauthority.com/NewsArticle/tabid/64/Default.aspx?id=2670">easyCouncil</a>” – a no frills approach to service delivery (think easyJet but for councils) is just one example.</p>
<p>Evidence has also shown that councils can be <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-urban-politics-9780195367867?cc=gb&amp;lang=en&amp;#">responsive</a> to policy demands expressed during elections. Libraries and other public services that may otherwise have closed have been saved because of public pressure, even if cuts need to be made. </p>
<p>Newcastle Council was heavily criticised over a proposed complete cut to its arts budget in 2012. Now, with the council having maintained some arts funding after a public outcry, culture <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-32052194">continues to thrive</a> in the region. With significant powers being devolved to some areas, more powers will likely be available for the local authorities involved in these deals. Public pressure matters, and voting in elections is a key part of that.</p>
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<span class="caption">Boosting local democracy, one vote at a time.</span>
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<p>Local elections also provide voters with a chance to pursue change. Fed up with how one party runs the council? Then vote for something different. Small parties have often gained greater prominence by being successful in local councils first.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/">The Greens</a> built their success in Brighton Pavilion on the back of contesting council seats. The Liberal Democrats built their success prior to 2010 by “<a href="http://www.markpack.org.uk/community-politics-a-short-reader/">community politics</a>”. This saw them contesting seats on councils, using that as a springboard to winning parliamentary representation – which has also been done by other small parties, with UKIP recently adopting such a <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/ukip-9780198736110?cc=gb&amp;lang=en&amp;">strategy</a>. </p>
<p>In some areas, this has meant that there can often be non-partisan local independents on the council, claiming they put the area’s interests ahead of a party’s. There has been an <a href="http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/62/1/4.abstract%20%20http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/05/independent-candidates-issues-uk-general-election-nhs-fracking">explosion in the number of small party</a> and independent candidates in recent years as voters experiment with different ways of doing politics.</p>
<h2>The people’s politics</h2>
<p>In an individualistic age, duty and service are unpopular words. But little in public life would get done without them. People tend to be proud of where they live and take an interest in it. </p>
<p>In many <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/local-government-network/2013/mar/01/people-trust-local-government">surveys</a> of public opinion, it is typical for local representatives to be more trusted and rated than it is for politics and politicians generally. While people may not know their councillor or local MP personally, they see them in the newspaper and on local TV doing things for residents. </p>
<p>More than one report into local government has referred to elections as “the essence of local democracy”. Getting out to vote shows both an appreciation of what representatives do – which is mostly unpaid and on our behalf. </p>
<p>It confers legitimacy on the local council and shows how much residents care about what goes on in their local area. Voting can be habit forming. It can also make a difference. If you have a local election on May 5, make sure that you get out and vote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alistair Clark&#39;s research into local politics has in the past been funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, Leverhulme Trust, Nuffield Foundation and British Academy </span></em></p>Local elections are taking place across 124 councils in England and will probably have a big impact on the day-to-day issues that most people care about.Alistair Clark, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/583192016-04-26T14:33:17Z2016-04-26T14:33:17ZEverything you need to know about the mayoral elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120042/original/image-20160425-22383-1eunzc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Foot voting</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ververidis Vasilis/shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On May 5 when the UK next heads to the polls for local and regional elections, voters in London, Salford, Liverpool and Bristol will have an extra choice to make – who they want to become their next <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayors_in_England">directly elected mayor</a>.</p>
<p>Directly elected mayors have a great deal of power – unlike their purely ceremonial counterparts who tend to be senior councillors wearing the robes of office and tasked with carrying out a range of civic duties. Directly elected mayors are there to exercise political leadership and to “get things done”.</p>
<p>London was the first to have this post, but by the middle of next year there will be more than <a href="http://www.birminghampost.co.uk/news/regional-affairs/birmingham-agrees-elected-mayor-2017-10453952">20 elected mayors</a> across England. And in the recent budget, the chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, spoke about <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/budget-2016-three-more-regions-of-england-are-to-get-elected-mayors-and-access-to-billions-in-a6935476.html">increasing the numbers again</a> which could mean more to come.</p>
<p>The modern London mayoralty began back in 2000 following a referendum in London which supported the creation of a mayor and a Greater London Authority and provided legislation to introduce the <a href="https://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/about-the-city/the-lord-mayor/Pages/history-of-the-mayoralty.aspx">structures</a>. </p>
<p>More positions were created shortly afterwards, in places as different as Bedford, Doncaster, Lewisham and Middlesbrough. Tony Blair <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1482482/Blairs-pet-idea-for-elected-mayors-revived.html">was an enthusiast</a> as is <a href="http://www.lgiu.org.uk/2009/02/17/conservative-green-paper-on-localism-today-mayors-and-capping-headline/">David Cameron</a> – and the push to create more elected mayors has continued ever since. Mayoral elections are for a fixed term, which means those mayors last elected in 2012 will face a contest this year. Terms of office – assuming no death, resignation or disqualification – are four years long. </p>
<h2>For or against?</h2>
<p>Those in favour argue that mayors can provide strong local leadership. Research looking at the impact of the <a href="http://www.centreforcities.org/blog/impact-mayor-george-ferguson-bristol/">mayor in Bristol</a> has shown that the introduction of an elected mayor directly resulted in an increase in the visibility of city leadership. But those against say that the creation of elected mayors actually reduces local democracy with most elected representatives having little or no power. </p>
<p>This is because the more power belongs to the one figure, the less power each individual councillor has. An example is that whereas an adminstration’s budget could be defeated by a majority, the mayoral budget requires a two-thirds majority. Mayors also may not feel answerable to elected councillors because rather than being elected by the council (as council leaders are) the mayor has a direct mandate. </p>
<p>The decision to have a mayor is often taken by a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-35775613">referendum</a>, although there are examples – <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-16938425">such as in Liverpool</a> – where local people were not consulted and the mayor was elected by the council. Decisions have also been revoked – both Stoke and Hartlepool decided to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-34841438">abandon the role</a> after controversies. Hartlepool’s elected mayor, Stuart Drummond, was an independent candidate best known for his role as the local football team’s <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1965569.stm">monkey mascot</a>. And a lot of other local electorates in England and Wales have actually rejected the idea altogether.</p>
<p>Despite the significance of these positions, turnout in mayoral elections has been low – participation in the last London contest <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2012">did not reach 40%</a>. And in Liverpool, back in 2012, <a href="http://councillors.liverpool.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=224&amp;RPID=2828867">just over 31%</a> cast a vote. Politicians know that turnout is partly driven by a sense of a close contest, but in London there was a perception of a contest and yet still the turnout was low.</p>
<h2>What does the role mean?</h2>
<p>Being an elected mayor is a big job. The largest constituency in Liverpool has an electorate of around <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Liverpool">70,000</a>, while the figure for the mayoral contest is closer to <a href="http://councillors.liverpool.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=224&amp;RPID=2828867">320,000</a>. </p>
<p>The powers of elected mayors vary – but they have great symbolic importance and individuals can develop a strong personal presence, becoming “Mr Salford” or “Mrs Watford” for example. The focus on the individual also encourages image building. The first directly elected mayor of Middlesbrough, former senior Cleveland police officer Ray Mallon became <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/jul/17/police.localgovernment1">known as Robocop </a> by many, </p>
<p>Many MPs or former MPs also seem to view becoming an elected mayor as a good career move – and in London both <a href="https://theconversation.com/echoes-of-the-distant-past-in-englands-modern-battles-to-be-mayor-57767">main players</a> are current MPs. Leicester’s elected mayor is former MP <a href="http://www.leicester.gov.uk/your-council/city-mayor-peter-soulsby/">Peter Soulsby</a>, while <a href="http://www.salford.gov.uk/your-council/city-mayor/contact-the-city-mayor/">Ian Stewart</a> in Salford was MP for Eccles at one time, and former MP <a href="http://www.sion-simon.com/">Sion Simon</a> reportedly plans to contest the West Midlands post next year.</p>
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<span class="caption">Who wins? You decide.</span>
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<h2>How does the voting work?</h2>
<p>Voting in the mayoral elections is a little different to voting in local or parliamentary contests – the system used is the <a href="http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/supplementary-vote">supplementary vote</a>. This basically means that electors get a first choice and a second. </p>
<p>If no candidate reaches the 50% threshold, only the top two remain in the fight and all the other ballot papers have their second choices transferred. This clearly affects campaign strategies and messaging – annoy the supporters of every other candidate and you are unlikely to get second preferences. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2012">Boris Johnson</a> <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17946742">needed second choice</a> votes to get across the line in 2012.</p>
<p>There is also the consideration of how the other polls happening on the same day will influence the way people vote. While we might want to believe that voters carefully consider each role separately before making their choice, we know that the presence of one very popular or very unpopular individual on one ballot paper is likely to affect thinking about others.</p>
<p>I voted by post today and had three ballot papers: mayor, police and crime commissioner, local councillor – which is a lot of decisions to make about our future leaders in one go. If elected mayors are to have the legitimacy the government desires then electoral engagement needs to increase. But it’s not the voters fault if they don’t see the point. It is down to mayors themselves to become better at making us see them as relevant enough to care about.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58319/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paula Keaveney is a member of the Liberal Democrats and has been an elected City Councillor and Leader of the Opposition in Liverpool.</span></em></p>May 2016 sees contests for the position of elected mayor in four major cities across England.Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Public Relations and Politics, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/544122016-02-09T13:40:34Z2016-02-09T13:40:34ZState of the Nation address: what Zuma needs to tell South Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110786/original/image-20160209-12616-1vp3beb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Much is expected of South African President Jacob Zuma when he delivers his 2016 State of the Nation Address.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Sumaya Hisham</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma will give his 2016 State of the Nation Address on February 11 to outline key government business for the year ahead. The event will be keenly watched to establish what the president and the governing African National Congress consider to be the most important challenges facing the country, and how they plan to tackle them. Politics and society editor Thabo Leshilo asked three political scientists what to expect.</em></p>
<p><strong>What are the most important issues the president should be addressing?</strong></p>
<p><em>Andre Duvenhage</em>: The four most important issues are the economy and economic growth, social cohesion, land reform and preparing the terrain for the 2016 local government elections.</p>
<p>Economic growth is necessary to prevent international rating agencies downgrading South Africa’s sovereign rating to <a href="http://www.fin24.com/Economy/sa-heading-for-junk-status-unless-gdp-grows-20151208">junk status</a>, to create jobs and to attain all the government’s big strategic goals. </p>
<p>Social cohesion is directly related to the debate about <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/2016/01/11/Number-of-complaints-to-HRC-suggest-South-Africa-is-becoming-more-racist">racism</a>. It also seems to be an important part of the ANC’s election campaign. It is critical for the ANC to perform well in the upcoming <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2014-05-11-the-partys-over-anc-sees-decline-in-support">municipal election</a>. More radical social and economic transformation, with emphasis on <a href="http://www.biznews.com/undictated/2015/02/24/brilliant-analysis-zimbabwean-ruin-looms-large-as-sa-land-reform-kicks-into-gear/">land reform</a>, will be most critical.</p>
<p><em>Leon Schreiber</em>: There is no doubt that the general loss of faith in the economy is the most important issue Zuma must address. While global economic conditions are indeed unfavourable, they are no excuse for the sickly state of the South African economy.</p>
<p>A number of developments point to the government’s general mismanagement of the economy, as well as some own goals. These include: the firing of his finance minister, now known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-zumas-actions-point-to-shambolic-management-of-south-africas-economy-52174">#Nenegate</a>, the plummeting rand, rising food prices due to government’s failure to come to the aid of drought-stricken farmers, policy flux and soaring government debt.</p>
<p>All have put the country firmly on the path to recession and there is a strong possibility that South Africa’s sovereign rating will be downgraded to junk status. He needs to acknowledge these problems and announce concrete steps to begin to fix the ailing economy.</p>
<p>Related to this is the fact that government’s wage bill simply has to be trimmed. <a href="https://theconversation.com/civil-service-pay-south-africa-has-some-harsh-choices-to-make-53389">Civil servants’</a> salaries and benefits consume 35.5% of government’s total budget. This contributed to <a href="http://www.saiia.org.za/opinion-analysis/2015-budget-too-little-too-late-for-south-africas-public-debt">public debt ballooning</a> by 70% between 2009 and 2014 – from 26% of GDP to 44% by 2014. </p>
<p>The return on this investment has been almost non-existent as the civil service remains <a href="http://www.unisa.ac.za/news/index.php/2014/01/sa-labour-productivity-at-its-lowest-in-46-years/">unproductive</a> and service delivery <a href="https://theconversation.com/protests-soar-amid-unmet-expectations-in-south-africa-42013">protests</a> remain a fact of daily life. </p>
<p>And instead of reining in this expenditure, the public service was awarded a <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2015/ene/FullENE.pdf">10.1% salary increase</a> for 2015/2016, while an additional 300 000 civil servants were employed between 2008 and 2015, bringing the total to 1.6 million. </p>
<p>President Zuma must use the speech to signal his willingness to cut this inefficient spending.</p>
<p>It is also time he started to show leadership on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa/topics/university-fees">#FeesMustFall</a> matter. The speech provides him with a good opportunity to demonstrate to the country that he has listened to students’ concerns about unaffordable education, and that his administration is committed to finding sustainable solutions. Continuing the current dismissive approach to the issue would add further fuel to the protest fire.</p>
<p><em>Bheki Mngomezulu</em>: The state of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-on-a-cliff-edge-just-as-it-was-in-1985-53094">country’s economy</a> has to be the top priority. While economic development is not a panacea for all the problems a country faces, South Africa cannot prosper under the current weak economic conditions. </p>
<p>The reasons for the current crisis, as well as possible solutions, will have to be addressed. This would have two positive effects. First, it would revive hope that the government has plans in place to remedy the situation. Secondly, it would give potential investors confidence. This would dispel the wrong perception that the president does not care about the country’s economy and that he makes reckless decisions.</p>
<p>The president also needs to address the situation at higher education institutions. The call for free education by students and their dissatisfaction with the way in which government has responded to their demands should feature significantly. This is important because, to meet the demand, either the country’s budget needs to be adjusted or taxes must be increased. Either way South Africans would have to dig deeper into their pockets. </p>
<p>And the president needs to address violence both within and between political parties. This is of serious concern. The issue is particularly important because of the forthcoming local elections. Unless political violence is curtailed now it will be difficult to contain - let alone end - around election time.</p>
<p><strong>Does the President have what it takes to deliver on these challenges?</strong></p>
<p><em>Andre Duvenhage</em>: President Zuma is playing the survival game and is not going to take bold decisions. Survival is about the succession battle within the ANC. He will make a lot of tactical moves but won’t take big strategic decisions to take the country forward during a time of crisis.</p>
<p><em>Leon Schreiber</em>: Unfortunately, it is very unlikely that Zuma will take bold action. He has generally proven to be a weak and compromised leader, preferring to avoid tough decisions as much as possible. Concrete actions on the economy and a commitment to cutting the wasteful civil service budget would be politically unpopular with the ANC and its alliance partners, while the pressures of the upcoming local government elections make it extremely unlikely that the president will take these necessary steps. Instead, South Africans can expect more of the same from Zuma: a poorly-delivered and uninspiring speech filled with selective anecdotes touting government’s supposed successes while denying the scale of the socio-economic crisis facing the country. </p>
<p><em>Bheki Mngomezulu</em>: The President will in all likelihood be very cautious. And with the local elections around the corner, the President would not want to give opposition political parties ammunition to ambush the ruling party. </p>
<p>While it is true that Zuma has over the years proved he has the ability to weather the storms, and laugh things off, this time around there is a lot at stake. Previous developments and an anticipation of things to come in the local election and the ANC elective conference in 2017 will influence how he articulates certain government positions. </p>
<p>Taking a bold decision calls for courage. It is also contingent on a confluence of factors. For example, he has to be certain that he has enough support so that even if a decision is challenged there would be people to support it. At the moment he has no such guarantee.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54412/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leon Schreiber is a volunteer for the DA Abroad.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andre Duvenhage dan Bheki Mngomezulu tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>The general loss of faith in the economy is the most important issue President Zuma must address. More radical social and economic transformation, with emphasis on land reform will be most critical.Andre Duvenhage, Research Director, North-West UniversityBheki Mngomezulu, Senior Lecturer and Academic Leader, International & Public Affairs, University of KwaZulu-NatalLeon Schreiber, Research Specialist, Innovations for Successful Societies, Princeton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/392232015-12-21T11:18:18Z2015-12-21T11:18:18ZLocal governments to be self-funded by 2020 – but can Westminster really learn to let go?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106691/original/image-20151218-27894-1aztiru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/data_op/3174822930/sizes/l">Okko Pyykko/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past 20 years, successive governments have entered power <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/big-society-speech">with promises</a> to
decentralise power <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/272357/6939.pdf">and enhance local autonomy</a>. Yet the fact that parties keep making such pledges is testament to their lack of success in reinvigorating local authorities. Now, local government secretary <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/local-government-finance-settlement">Greg Clark claims</a> to have found the answer: by 2020, local authorities will be financially self-sufficient, with funding from local revenue sources such as council tax and business rates to take the place of government grants.</p>
<p>With this latest package, the government <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/greg-clark-hails-historic-4-year-settlement-and-support-for-adult-social-care">claims to deliver</a> what local councils have been campaigning for. But then, so did David Cameron’s “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/78979/building-big-society_0.pdf">Big Society</a>”, and the coalition government’s broader localism agenda. When in power from 2010 to 2015, the coalition proffered a rejection of big government, a reduction in centralised bureaucracy and a significant shift of power from the centre, to councils, communities and people. </p>
<h2>Lessons from past mistakes</h2>
<p>To find out what local authorities have made of all this, I <a href="http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/12709/">conducted a study</a> in local borough councils across London. The research involved interviews with seven local councillors in five boroughs (Hackney, Islington, Kensington and Chelsea, Richmond and Sutton), focusing on matters such as decentralisation, citizen empowerment, local planning and central/local relations. I found that the unfolding of the last government’s localism agenda presented some deep-rooted issues with the relationship between local and central government. </p>
<p>The councillors I interviewed spoke at length about the failure of the coalition government to decentralise power and autonomy to the local level. As my study explains: “When asked, in simple terms, whether the coalition had brought about the decentralisation of power, nearly all the local councillors … offered a resounding ‘no’.” Though legislation like the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/20/contents/enacted">Localism Act 2011</a> brought in new powers and rights for councils and communities, in practice councils remain restrained and heavily supervised by central government. </p>
<p>This is because the 2011 act created substantial new powers for the secretary of state to oversee and direct the way that councils and communities use provisions designed for local benefit. For example, the secretary of state has an overriding say in whether councils can take over the running of local services under the act’s “community right to challenge”. My study found that despite central government’s various efforts to decentralise, “councils do not feel that they have been the beneficiaries of any substantial power”. As a result, I concluded that the government needs to adopt “a changed attitude towards local government; one founded on greater freedom, less bureaucracy and increased trust in local authorities”.</p>
<h2>A new age of localism?</h2>
<p>The current Conservative government can and should take something from these findings to ensure that future reforms to local institutions are meaningful and effective. To a point, it does seem to be doing this: the cities and local government devolution bill and, with it, George Osborne’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chancellor-on-building-a-northern-powerhouse">Northern Powerhouse policy</a> give coalitions of local authorities the opportunity to negotiate devolutionary “deals” with the centre. Under these deals, councils will have the freedom to shape their own relationships with Whitehall, and the ability to take on further powers over local services. </p>
<p>These extra powers will be subject to the acceptance of a directly-elected mayor – a caveat intended to give stronger leadership and greater accountability to the new city regions. While framed as introducing a more bottom-up approach, however, the new bill’s provisions still have an air of central imposition about them, with central government potentially having the power to decide the nature of any devolution and the ability to force the adoption of directly elected mayors on reluctant councils.</p>
<p>Manchester, Sheffield and a number of others have already started work within this northern powerhouse vision. And back in July 2015, Cornwall also struck a devolution deal with Whitehall, which saw the decentralisation of various powers, so we will soon see for ourselves how far these reforms have gone towards improving the state of localism in England. But last month’s announcement of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-cuts-to-local-councils-will-affect-you-51622">further cuts to local money</a> will no doubt make life increasingly difficult for councils, as they are encouraged to fend for themselves.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106692/original/image-20151218-27858-1u5ttw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Devolution or dud?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/edublogger/414582106/sizes/l">Ewan McIntosh/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Osborne’s pledge to facilitate a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-unveils-devolution-revolution">“devolution revolution”</a> also means that by the end of the decade, councils will be allowed to keep funds raised from the collection of local business rates. This seems to facilitate greater council control of local money, and encourage local authorities to promote and stimulate their local economies through developing thriving local businesses. </p>
<p>There is genuine concern, however, that this will promote a “survival of the fittest” approach, giving councils the difficult decision to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-george-osborne-devolution-revolution-mean-for-local-councils-48689">sink or swim</a>, dependent on their resources and abilities to build and promote local businesses. What is more, the recent announcement that councils will – over the next few years – have greater control over their tax revenue, appears hindered by the requirement that they provide the centre with “efficiency plans”; providing yet another example of the centre seeking to devolve power, while clothing it in unnecessary bureaucracy. </p>
<p>In implementing these changes, the government needs to ensure that councils have the freedom to pick and choose powers best suited to deal with local concerns. They must be able to exercise authority in locally relevant ways – not in a manner prescribed at the centre. </p>
<p>For too long, local governmental reform has tended to exacerbate the problem by merely tweaking the existing system. What’s needed is a fundamental overhaul – and it must start at the centre. The new reforms are, to a degree, refreshing insofar as they seek to promote a new approach to local devolution. I remain unconvinced, however, as to whether the new changes are sufficiently fundamental to break from past practices and the problems that have plagued localism reform for many, many years; with the continued financial restraints making life constantly more difficult for local councils.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39223/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I have, in the past, received funding from the EC1 New Deal for Communities regeneration programme. </span></em></p>Successive governments have promised to give more power to local councils but so far all have fallen short on delivery.John Stanton, Senior Lecturer in Law, The City Law School, City University London, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/416272015-05-11T16:43:13Z2015-05-11T16:43:13ZThe forgotten local elections – Conservatives defy predictions in council votes too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81195/original/image-20150511-10276-13lp39i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There was a local election? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.epa.eu/politics-photos/politics-photos/a-woman-walks-through-a-polling-station-photos-02718554">&#39;Kerim Okten/EPA&#39;</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You’d not have known it from the media coverage, but the national election on May 7 was not the only contest playing out in the UK. Almost all English district and unitary councils – <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/councils">279 of 293</a> – held elections too, and there were also votes for six mayors, for many parish and town councils, plus the odd <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32620472">local referendum</a>.</p>
<p>There were no council elections in London, Scotland or Wales, but English voters – many doubtless to their surprise – were confronted by up to five ballot papers. Those in Bedford, for example, had votes for an MP, a mayor, two borough councillors, up to 11 parish councillors, and a referendum on their Police and Crime Commissioner’s <a href="http://www.bedfordshire-news.co.uk/Bedford-Borough-highest-number-ballot-papers/story-26129326-detail/story.html">proposal</a> to increase council tax – the first ever of its kind.</p>
<h2>The predictions</h2>
<p>These multiple ballots offered electors the obvious opportunity for split-voting: one for their MP or national government, and another more personal, local or protest vote.</p>
<p>The chief beneficiaries of any split-voting were expected to be <a href="http://www.lgcplus.com/news/politics/comment-and-analysis/smaller-parties-set-for-power-grab/5084045.article">minor parties</a> and independents in the council elections. But, as the nearly complete results table shows, that was <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/951a9e7c-f5a4-11e4-a018-00144feab7de.html#axzz3ZooOwxyE">another prediction</a> largely confounded in these elections.</p>
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<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The results.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Local government’s four-year electoral cycle means that the baseline with which to compare these elections was 2011, when most of the actual council seats up this year were last won and lost. </p>
<p>Since then, the opinion poll ratings of both Labour and the Conservatives have dropped. The Conservatives, though, were thought likely to be the bigger losers, having done well in 2011 and therefore defending far more seats than Labour, and having also been more damaged by UKIP’s dramatic rise.</p>
<p>But just as predictions for the national election proved wide of the mark, so did those for the 9,500 local contests. </p>
<h2>The results</h2>
<p>The Conservatives were the unambiguous winners of these local elections and Labour not just the net, but absolute, loser. The Lib Dems suffered as painfully as they did nationally. The junior coalition partners were predicted to <a href="http://www.themj.co.uk/Polls-open-in-local-elections/200550">lose around 50 seats</a> but ended up ceding more than seven times that number. UKIP made progress, but less than it hoped, and the Greens flatlined.</p>
<p>The Conservatives won overall control of more than 30 councils – mostly, it should be noted, councils without a single party majority before the vote. Those gains rightly got the headlines, but two of the party’s most satisfying results will be its retained and slightly strengthened control in Solihull and Trafford – the only two of the 36 big metropolitan councils it currently holds. </p>
<p>Other now <a href="http://www.lgcplus.com/news/more-news/local-elections-2015-tories-gain-a-series-of-councils/5084835.article">Conservative</a> controlled unitary councils include Basingstoke &amp; Deane, Poole, and Bath &amp; North East Somerset, where there are now two Greens, but 14 fewer Lib Dems and a first-time Conservative majority.</p>
<p>Shire district councils won included traditionally independent Babergh, Suffolk, also for the first time; Amber Valley, Gravesham, and North Warwickshire straight from Labour; Hinckley &amp; Bosworth from the Lib Dems; Gloucester, St Albans, Scarborough, Winchester, and Worcester.</p>
<p>Further Labour losses included Walsall metropolitan borough and the unitaries Plymouth and Stoke-on-Trent – all now left with no single majority party.</p>
<p>Even defeated parties must find consolation somewhere, and Labour’s will include hanging on to a knife-edge majority in Bradford, thanks to independent candidates, UKIP and Respect all losing seats, and gaining majorities in unitary Stockton-on-Tees, and, after a suspended recount and overnight rest, Cheshire West &amp; Chester.</p>
<p>Labour is also now the largest party on Brighton &amp; Hove – which in 2011 had become the first council to be run by the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32680552">Greens</a>.</p>
<p>As in the national election, the Greens’ recent membership surge didn’t really translate into hard results, though they will be encouraged by seven gains in Labour-dominated Bristol, bringing them within touching distance of official opposition.</p>
<p>In this year’s local elections, UKIP was the history maker. Party leader Nigel Farage had failed to become Thanet South’s MP, but his party reduced Labour councillors from 24 to four and won overall control of Thanet district – its first principal council. </p>
<h2>The mayors</h2>
<p>Good Lib Dem news was at a premium all weekend, but enough of Bedford’s conscientious voters backed Dave Hodgson to re-elect him comfortably for a third term as the borough’s mayor.</p>
<p>In other mayoral votes, Peter Soulsby was re-elected for Labour in Leicester, Gordon Oliver for the Conservatives in Torbay, and Mansfield’s three-term Independent Tony Egginton was succeeded by his Mansfield Independent Forum colleague, Kate Allsop. </p>
<p>Another Independent, Mike Starkie, was elected as the first mayor of Copeland in Cumbria, while in Middlesbrough three-term Independent Ray Mallon has retired and is replaced by Labour’s Dave Budd – though only after a second preference count and the rejection of large numbers of spoilt ballots, presumably from the many Labour members who, despite the result, want the mayoral system abolished.</p>
<p>In these mayoral elections at least, then, there was something for almost everyone: Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, and Independent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41627/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Game does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Gains for the Tories and obliteration for the Lib Dems as councils are selected — sound familiar?Chris Game, Honorary Senior Lecturer, Institute of Local Government Studies, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/390842015-03-20T14:42:28Z2015-03-20T14:42:28ZThe Liberal Democrats' local foundations are crumbling<p>Party politics is not what it once used to be. The major parties used to contain millions of members; today, they are small organisations composed of a few dedicated activists. At the <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/SN05125/membership-of-uk-political-parties">latest count</a> Labour had around 190,000 members, the Conservatives around 150,000 and the Liberal Democrats just 44,000. </p>
<p>In a society that has become ever more <a href="http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/files/jrf/2284.pdf">individualised</a> and where people’s social lives are no longer rooted in their local working men’s clubs or liberal associations, that decline is unsurprising. But it has nonetheless had major consequences for political campaigning, and particularly for the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<h2>Hard graft</h2>
<p>In the past, the Liberal Democrat party has cultivated its success on the back of localised, grassroots campaigning. The party has a reputation as a hard worker: its councillors run intensive local campaigns, its activists are highly visible in their local communities, and the party just gets things done. </p>
<p>This work ethic has been critical for much of the party’s success, and has allowed the Liberal Democrats to build strongholds in constituencies such as Eastleigh. </p>
<p>In his <a href="http://www.libdems.org.uk/nick-clegg-speech-spring-conference-2015">spring conference speech</a>, Nick Clegg argued that it was this activism that would mean that at the General Election the Liberal Democrats would “defy the odds and win again this May” and “do so much better than anyone thinks”. As he put it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In those seats where we are out in force, making our case loudly and proudly, we are the ones making the weather. I’ve seen it for myself in Liberal Democrat seats across the country. We are showing that with hard work, strong local campaign teams and a record of delivering for people in national and local government, we can and will win. </p>
<p>We have demonstrated it in countless council elections. We have demonstrated it in mayoral elections in Bedford and Watford. And we demonstrated it in Eastleigh in the only parliamentary by-election that was held on our turf. </p>
<p>It won’t be easy, but winning shouldn’t be. We need to persuade people every day between now and May the seventh that their lives will be better with Liberal Democrat councillors making a difference in their communities, Liberal Democrat MPs fighting their corner in Westminster and Liberal Democrat ministers serving them in government. Every Liberal Democrat elected in May makes our voice louder.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This reputation is well deserved, but it depends on active local parties and enthusiastic Liberal Democrat councillors who do the hard work for the party on the ground. And that foundation is crumbling. </p>
<h2>Falling away</h2>
<p>Since May 2010, Liberal Democrat party membership has fallen by more than 20,000, from <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/12/how-lib-dems-tried-hide-fall-their-membership">65,038 in 2010</a> to the current 44,000. Similarly, the number of Liberal Democrat councillors has declined from 3,944 councillors in 2010 to 2,282 in 2014; meaning that whilst the party used to control <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/RP10-44/local-elections-2010">25 councils</a>, they now control <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/RP14-33/local-elections-2014">just 10</a>. </p>
<p>This means the party not only has less power in local communities, but also has fewer people prepared to, as Clegg says, “get out there and tell people what we have done to help them and their community”. </p>
<p>This is a real problem for the Liberal Democrats – because, as Clegg acknowledged, “No one else will do it for us”.</p>
<p>With the party already at a financial disadvantage compared to Labour and the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats are likely to face real difficulties in getting their message across to voters – especially when attention is paid to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/lib-dems-will-struggle-to-seize-the-agenda-at-spring-conference-38669">two main parties</a> and emerging forces such as UKIP and the Greens.</p>
<p>Whilst Clegg may therefore be hopeful of confounding expectations in May it appears that the legacy of a falling membership and the decline in the number of Liberal Democrat councillors will be real barriers to realising this aim.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39084/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Party membership has long been declining across the political spectrum, but it's hitting the Lib Dems hardest.Katharine Dommett, Research Fellow in British Governance and Politics, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/336982014-10-31T15:01:41Z2014-10-31T15:01:41ZIt's little wonder people aren't showing up to vote for police commissioners<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63407/original/wkxx6mxc-1414764903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;rect=0%2C96%2C1500%2C1203&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Despite pressure from the pet community, few are turning up.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/rikkis_refuge/4133733150/in/photolist-7ihsR7-7ihrAQ-7ihrAW-7idzX6-7ihrAG-7ihrAL-7idzX4-7ihsR1-7ihsRj-7ihsRd-fzvYC4-2T2EY-7Q4Mox-fB7ZuY-aC7TLQ-5zfcUM-duDtyr-8Vidti-beJmQp-7ZZD7e-d9gp1j-Abg7M-8vJGry-cXmzbC-7SGZLj-7SGZQf-7SGZSm-6TNMzS-iPsXhi-ptAZdT-aBdBNn-cZERTW-9ciiDw-oUP7ZM-dreHwa-N8TeV-DXSPq-hZnGnf-2Zq3BV-dpdY4a-DXSRr-9wB1T8-DXSLL-8QhxCa-KmH2t-5zuhWw-5TWXpK-pdi3Zx-oCkupN-oB2DS1">Rikki&#39;s Refuge</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even before the results come in, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29850075">turn-out</a> for electing South Yorkshire’s next Police and Crime Commissioner was shown to be extremely low. As the votes were being counted from the October 30 ballot, it was revealed the turn-out was only 14.88%. In the town of Doncaster, just 3.5% of voters exercised their democratic right.</p>
<p>This is certainly a problem and it’s one that reveals more than just voter apathy. The media has played its part in marginalising what might have been an exceptionally high-profile campaign.</p>
<p>The lack of people taking part in PCC elections could hardly get much worse. The first elections happened in 2012 and voter turn-out stood at just 15%. This was the <a href="peacetime%20non-local%20government%20election%20in%20the%20UK">lowest recorded level of participation in a peacetime non-local government election in the UK</a>. At one polling station in<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-20355358"> Newport, South Wales</a>, no votes were recorded at all.</p>
<p>Great concern over voter apathy promptly followed but it is important to note that these elections were largely ignored by the national press, which <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00344893.2014.911774#.VFOh5fmsWSp">stood accused</a> of only turning up in the final few days of campaigning.</p>
<p>A higher number of voters and indeed more coverage might well have been expected this time around in South Yorkshire. The latest vote comes in the wake of a particularly high-profile scandal involving the local police’s response to the abuse of 1,400 children in the area between 1997 and 2013. Wright <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29220535">stood down from the job</a> in September 2014 amid a media frenzy. Indeed, every aspect of the Rotherham sex abuse cases was picked over in minute detail by the national press.</p>
<p>Yet, as the time came to replace him, the media appeared to have completely lost interest. The national media has focused its attentions on the by-elections in Clacton and Rochester and Strood, confining the PCC elections to local media coverage.</p>
<p>Even on polling day, the BBC’s local news page for South Yorkshire hardly seemed to notice the election to replace Wright either. It’s coverage amounted to an 83-word report placed third on the page. It ran below coverage of the death of two young boys in a fire but also below an article carrying the headline: “Trio admit Poochon puppy-napping”.</p>
<p>In 2012 the low turn-out was essentially blamed on the public. Those not voting were presented as ill-informed about the elections. Conservative ministers claimed at the time that people weren’t turning out to vote because these were new posts. The assumption was that next time around the votes cast would be higher as the public saw the importance of the roles. </p>
<p>That won’t wash this time though. The posts are not new and their importance has been questioned for some time. Low turn-out is not the fault of apathetic voters. Suggesting otherwise is not only to levy blame at the wrong individuals and structures but is incredibly patronising and hypocritical. If there is to be a “crisis of democracy”, then perhaps the media and political parties themselves need to be held accountable.</p>
<p>It’s common for general elections to be described as first-order elections. They are the most important and bring high turn-outs. Other elections, such as for police commissioners, have conveniently been branded second-order events. If turn-out and media coverage continues to decline, and interest from political parties further wanes, PCC elections might even become their own category – the third-order election. Only four candidates stood to replace Wright in this election. The Liberal Democrats have not even bothered fielding a candidate. </p>
<p>But the South Yorkshire PCC election is important. It fits into a wider debate about <a href="http://www.crickcentre.org/blog/nick-clegg-2014-pcc-elections-democracy-without-voters/">democracy and elections in Britain</a>, features candidates from UKIP and the English Democrats and has huge implications for the government’s policing strategy.</p>
<p>The idea of introducing PCC elections in 2012 was central to reforming the police service in the UK. Having elections was seen as legitimate in comparison to the old system of appointments but low turn-out took away the sheen. This latest low turn-out in South Yorkshire may fuel calls for these elections to be stopped and even for the police commissioner posts to be scrapped altogether.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Kirkland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even before the results come in, turn-out for electing South Yorkshire’s next Police and Crime Commissioner was shown to be extremely low. As the votes were being counted from the October 30 ballot, it…Christopher Kirkland, PhD candidate in politics, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/271292014-05-23T09:12:54Z2014-05-23T09:12:54ZTriumph of UKIP asks tough questions of big three Westminster parties<p>It is clear from the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/may/26/european-election-results-ukip-victory-uk-live">European</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27531094">local election</a> results that there are some interesting and fairly nuanced things happening.</p>
<p>Labour has not done as well as it expected to do – and there are a lot of people in the Labour ranks who are beginning to get <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4097882.ece">nervous about Ed Miliband’s leadership</a> with one year to go until the general election. Voters see him as neither strong nor decisive enough. He comes across as a bit of an awkward amateur.</p>
<p>Cameron certainly has more gravitas and looks more comfortable with leadership. With Miliband the big question is whether the Labour Party can afford to ditch him with only 12 months left before the election. They probably won’t.</p>
<p>Cameron is safe, but the big question for the Tories is whether they will be able to win back the support from the right of the party which has migrated to UKIP. Unsurprisingly, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27567744">UKIP did even better in the European election</a> than in the local council polls, taking 27 per cent of the vote and even managing to pick up a seat in Scotland. </p>
<p>This will put pressure on the Conservatives over what they intend to do about Europe. In turn, the right of the party, the Eurosceptic wing, will put pressure on Cameron. He’s on the record as wanting to campaign for a yes vote in the planned referendum on EU membership, while a lot of his party are quite openly in the no camp. Many of them are now saying an earlier EU referendum than the planned 2017 vote should be sought.</p>
<p>But what the Conservatives have going for them, as we move into general election mode, is the economy. It is recovering and now healthier that the economies of many of the UK’s European partners. Labour has been campaigning hard on austerity and cost of living but that becomes far more difficult to sell when the economy is recovering.</p>
<p>As for the Lib Dems, they won’t be surprised by these results. They will pretend to be disappointed but privately they were expecting to do badly. They will know that in the eyes of a lot of the people who voted for them in 2010, this is payback time for four years of <a href="http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/have-the-lib-dems-kept-their-promises/5980">broken promises</a>. In 12 months’ time they are highly likely to be absolutely decimated at the polls – back to 1970s levels when really they had to rebuild from scratch.</p>
<p>People have begun to see them as unprincipled, which is a disaster for their brand. But ever since the 2010 election when there were nearly two weeks of to-ing and fro-ing between Labour and the Conservatives, they have given the impression of a party that has tasted power for the first time and is desperate to hang on to it at all costs.</p>
<p>Of course UKIP will be over the moon about these results. But the question is how will it build on this success to become a proper political force?</p>
<p>Hitherto it has been a two-policy party: focusing on the EU and immigration. They will obviously continue to bang those drums (even more loudly now) in Brussels and Strasbourg. And UKIP spokespeople say that locally they have a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22396690">whole suite of policies</a>. We’ll now see how strong they are at a local level – and that may prove significant in determining whether they can make a mark in elections to Westminster next year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alf Crossman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is clear from the European and local election results that there are some interesting and fairly nuanced things happening. Labour has not done as well as it expected to do – and there are a lot of people…Alf Crossman, Senior Lecturer in Industrial Relations and HRM, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/270382014-05-21T16:03:00Z2014-05-21T16:03:00ZLabour should be the biggest local winner – this year anyway<p>Two countries have synchronised their EU election and local election dates this cycle: Greece and parts of the UK (England and Northern Ireland). </p>
<p>On May 25, Greeks vote in run-off elections in all their 13 regions and 325 municipalities. England, though nearly five times as populous as Greece, also has 325 borough, district and unitary authorities. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26752940">Fewer than half of us</a>, however, will have the chance to elect either a whole council (32 London boroughs), a third of one (36 metropolitan boroughs, 82 unitaries and shire districts), or a half (7 shire districts) – oh yes, and five of our 14 elected mayors. We bemoan our <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/16/uk-election-turnouts-historic">embarrassingly low local election turnouts</a>, but we don’t exactly make the system voter-friendly.</p>
<p>London will dominate the local results, not least because its councils with all-out elections are the more likely to change hands. They were last elected, like most of this year’s retiring councillors, on general election day in 2010. Labour’s parliamentary results were a car crash, but contesting council seats previously fought in 2006, one of the party’s worst-ever years, its local – and particularly its London election performance – was modestly encouraging. It took majority control in three previously Conservative boroughs (Ealing, Enfield and Harrow) and seven that were previously hung. It won more London seats than the Tories for the <a href="http://data.london.gov.uk/datastore/package/borough-council-election-results-2010">first time since 1998</a>. The general election had boosted turnout, always an advantage for Labour, and the Conservatives’ national vote lead over Labour was down from 13% in 2006 to 7%. </p>
<p>This week’s opinion polls have the two parties neck-and-neck, with UKIP third, clearly ahead of the Liberal Democrats, though with some <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/">2,300 fewer councillors</a>. Labour, therefore, will be expecting most council and seat gains, while UKIP, with nearly 1,900 more candidates than in 2010, will win at least a few dozen seats but directly and unpredictably influence a great many more.</p>
<p>In London, Labour is targeting five outer London “<a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-to-target-outer-boroughs-as-election-battleground-9036883.html">battleground boroughs</a>”. Harrow, Merton and Redbridge are already hung councils – and so proverbially low-hanging fruit. <a href="http://maps.croydon.gov.uk/aya/pages/aya/aya.html?layer=WARD_REP_COUNCILLORS">Croydon</a> is a delicately balanced two-party state – our wildly disproportional electoral system “rewarding” 19% of Lib Dem voters in 2010 with precisely none of the 70 council seats – and a modest vote swing would give Labour control. But <a href="http://barnet.moderngov.co.uk/mgMemberIndex.aspx?bcr=1">Barnet</a>, the fifth borough on Labour’s list, seems a considerably tougher proposition, and definitely the one to watch.</p>
<p>Labour’s last London target is the Tower Hamlets mayoralty, held by the controversial Independent and Labour expellee, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/21/tower-hamlets-mayor-lutfur-rahman-accusations">Lutfur Rahman</a>. Opponents have accused him of everything from dubiously selling off and granting planning permission for the hotel conversion of the listed Poplar town hall to trying to buy his own re-election, but little of the mud really seems to stick and it may, if anything, boost his support. Panorama, however, couldn’t think of any <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO7-NomZjWQ">more original way of making a programme on elected mayors</a> and Eric Pickles, never one to miss out on a punch-up, is sending in his inspectors – though not to report back until well after the election. </p>
<p>Rahman’s Labour challenger, John Biggs, points out that the mayor won in 2010 in a low turnout election with the votes of only 13% of the electorate; he doesn’t mention that this was more than twice Labour’s vote share or that Rahman is one of the minority of mayors elected outright on <a href="http://www.towerhamlets.gov.uk/lgnl/council_and_democracy/elections__voting/election_results/2010_mayoral_election_result.aspx">first preference votes</a>. </p>
<p>The Lib Dems’ two majority-controlled London boroughs will also be targeted, but by the Conservatives. <a href="http://sutton.moderngov.co.uk/mgMemberIndex.aspx?FN=PARTY&amp;VW=LIST&amp;PIC=0">Sutton</a> they’ve held since 1990 and should do so again. In <a href="http://moderngov.kingston.gov.uk/mgMemberIndex.aspx?FN=WARD&amp;VW=LIST&amp;PIC=0">Kingston upon Thames</a>, though, their majority now hangs on a single seat – and on the hope that UKIP takes Conservative votes in the right places.</p>
<p>Of the 36 metropolitan boroughs, Labour already controls 29. Of the two Conservative councils, Trafford looks the more vulnerable. Having reduced the Tories’ majority to three in a <a href="https://democratic.trafford.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=3&amp;RPID=234602">recent by-election</a>, Labour will hope to win it for the first time since 2003. The <a href="http://eservices.solihull.gov.uk/mgInternet/mgMemberIndex.aspx?bcr=1">Solihull</a> Conservatives, who have 28 councillors, look securer – partly because their principal challengers, the Lib Dems (now nine), have been defecting to the Greens (now seven), who will be seeking to supplant them as the official opposition.</p>
<p>The West Yorkshire trio of <a href="http://www.bradford.gov.uk/asp/councillors/bymap.asp">Bradford</a>, <a href="http://www.calderdale.gov.uk/council/councillors/councillors/index.jsp">Calderdale</a> and <a href="http://www2.kirklees.gov.uk/you-kmc/kmc-howcouncilworks/councillors/memberlist.asp">Kirklees</a> have all been hung since at least 2000, but this could be about to change. In Bradford, Labour’s 2012 hopes of turning its minority control into a majority were thwarted by the coat-tails effect of George Galloway’s parliamentary by-election victory for Respect. The coat-tail councillors are all now Independents, and Labour should make it this time. Kirklees and Calderdale travel in parallel. Five years ago, both boroughs were run by Conservative minorities, which were replaced by Labour-Lib Dem coalitions, which were succeeded in turn by Labour minority administrations. Arithmetically Kirklees looks the more attainable for Labour.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.stockport.gov.uk/services/councildemocracy/democracy/councillors/?view=Standard">Stockport</a>, the Lib Dems now have only minority control of what has been their metropolitan flagship and are defending 12 of their 29 seats. Labour is the leading opposition, but, having finished second in only two of them in 2010, its gains may be limited. Its chances should be better in <a href="http://www2.walsall.gov.uk/CMISWebPublic/Members.aspx">Walsall</a>, where it is already the largest party, although in opposition to a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition. Overall, if Labour won the same wards as in the last elections in 2012, but without this time losing a couple of others to independents, it could gain majority control for the first time this century.</p>
<p>As I’ve noted, there are two sets of elections taking place this Thursday: for the European Parliament, for many of our local councils, and, although a visitor could be forgiven for imagining otherwise, none at all for the House of Commons, our national party leaders or their national manifestos. </p>
<p>Of all those elections, happening and not happening, those most continuously and extensively affecting our daily lives are undoubtedly the locals, which will see not only the turnover of hundreds of councillors, but changes in the control of many of what are some of the largest councils in Europe. It’s in these town halls and civic centres on Friday and the coming weeks that the real impact of these elections will be apparent, as policies change, budgeted cuts are reversed, planned projects are shelved and others are initiated. </p>
<p>By contrast, nothing whatever of comparable import will change in the Palace of Westminster as a result of Thursday’s voting. This preview, though limited by space to only a minority of our largest councils, has suggested that the overall “winners” of these elections, in terms of net councils and seats gained, will be Labour – the significance of which in 350 days’ time will be close to zero.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Game does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two countries have synchronised their EU election and local election dates this cycle: Greece and parts of the UK (England and Northern Ireland). On May 25, Greeks vote in run-off elections in all their…Chris Game, Honorary Senior Lecturer, Institute of Local Government Studies, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.