Regular Season vs. Playoffs: Contest+ %

Do teams contest more shots in the playoffs? I think we’d expect the answer to be a resounding “yes” since, intuitively, contesting shots seems at least in part related to effort, and don’t players try a little harder in the playoffs? But the results are not so clear.

First, let’s refresh on the definition of Contest+. We define Contest+ as any shot that is altered, blocked, or contested. Contest+ % will simply be the percentage of shots that are altered, blocked, or contested. For an exact definition on those terms, review this article.

Now, let’s explore the methodology and results. I looked at Team Contest+ % for a sample of regular season games and the playoff games in the 2011-12 season. For those interested in just seeing the results and the conclusions, skip ahead. First, I conducted Levene’s test for equality of variance and found that we have to reject the hypothesis of equality of variances in the two samples (p-value < .01). Next, I conducted Welch’s t-test to see if the means were statistically different. Here are the results:

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

Reg Season

Playoffs

Mean

0.4729023

0.456445

Variance

0.0080041

0.004745

Standard Deviation

0.0894656

0.068886

Observations

905

168

Hypothesized Mean Difference

0

df

283

t Stat

2.7022436

P(T<=t) one-tail

0.0036517

t Critical one-tail

1.6502557

P(T<=t) two-tail

0.0073034

t Critical two-tail

1.9683819

*Note: Playoff teams had a regular season Contest+% of 47.5%

Notice that Contest+ % in the playoffs has a lower average than the regular season. Moreover, not only is the average lower, but the difference in means is statistically significant (p-value < 0.01). So what do we make of this? Does this actually mean that teams contest a lower % of their shots in the playoffs than in the regular season? The evidence certainly seems to say “yes.” However, before coming to this conclusion, I think we have to keep a few things in mind. First, the sample sizes are drastically different and there are nowhere near as many playoff games than regular season games. Second, there are fewer teams in the playoffs, and theoretically better teams that may be just better at getting open looks. More than a quarter of the playoff games are coming from the Heat and the Celtics, who played in 23 and 20 games, respectively, that year. Finally, the actual difference in averages is not that large (just 1.6%). Regardless of whether it is statistically significant, this isn’t a major difference. So with all this being said, while we may not be ready to conclude that players contest fewer shots in the playoffs, one thing we can safely say is that they aren’t contesting more shots. And thatis surprising.

So what about our expectation that teams give more effort in the playoffs and, therefore, should contest more shots? The fact that players don’t contest more shots in the playoffs (despite what we assume to be marginally better effort) suggests one of three things (or some combination): (1) teams can’t shake bad habits in the playoffs that were developed in the regular season; (2) skill is the determining factor in contesting shots, not effort; or (3) offenses that are good at getting uncontested shots trump the marginal increase in contesting shots that greater defensive effort produces.

I’ll end this post with a graph of Contest+ % for each playoff game for the conference finalists:

As you may be able to tell from the graph, the Celtics had the smallest variance while the Spurs and Heat had the largest variances. The Thunder also had three of their four worst games in terms of contesting shots in the last three games of the Finals, and this general downward trend is consistent across the teams to a lesser degree.

In part 2 of this article, we’ll explore Open+ Frequency, how it changes from the regular season to the playoffs, and its relationship with Contest+%.

ABOUT

Vantage sells player development and analytics products for esports and the NBA.

Israel's Lonah Salpeter mistakenly stops running a lap early when in second place in the women's 5,000m and Britain's Eilish McColgan charges through to snap up silver behind Dutch winner Sifan Hassan.

• Neil Black thinks there is more to come from the sprinter• Asher-Smith’s coach John Blackie credited with key roleDina Asher-Smith’s “out of this world” treble at the European Championships was the best display by a British track competitor in a generation, according to the UK Athletics performance director, Neil Black.Asher-Smith will go for 100m, […]

As we bid farewell to the first multi-sport European Championships, it wasn’t just the athletes and competitors showcasing their talents in Glasgow and Berlin, the sports photographers present also used the event to demonstrate their own skills and technique Continue reading...

In Berlin’s Olympic stadium and on the streets for the marathon - what a weekend it has been. As always, I want to hear your stories, so share your highlights and lowlights below the line What a fabulous weekend that was. On Friday morning I flew to Berlin for the European athletics championships. Since then […]

• Men’s 4x100m gold lifts GB to total haul of 74 medals• Russia secure trophy for top spot with 31 gold medalsGreat Britain and Northern Ireland took second place in the overall medal standings as the multi-sport European Championships concluded in Berlin and Scotland on Sunday night.An athletics gold in the concluding men’s 4x100m raised […]

• 22-year-old leads team home at European Championships• Laura Muir wins her first outdoor gold in 1500mSometimes athletics is a simple sport. A bunch of people run round a track and at the end Dina Asher-Smith wins another gold medal. On the final evening of these European Championships, however, the 22-year-old looked desperately up against […]

The British athletics team has potential but it is punishingly hard to win on the global stageFourteen years ago, during the Athens Olympic Games, Dina Asher-Smith drew a picture of herself with six words scribbled underneath: “I want to win the Olympics.” After what we have seen in Berlin this past week, that increasingly looks […]

• Belarusian shakes off Clemence Calvin at finish to secure win• 29-year-old had nosebleed 30 minutes into 2hr 26min raceVolha Mazuronak survived a horrendous nose bleed and a wrong turn at the finish to win a thrilling European Championship women’s marathon. Related: Jakob Ingebrigtsen, 17, wins 5,000m gold less than a day after 1500m triumph […]

Brilliant Norweigan takes European Championships by stormJakob even tried to high-five his brother, Henrik, during raceThe 17-year-old Jakob Ingebrigtsen made history for the second night in a row to claim a European 5000m gold – less than 24 hours after he had become the youngest athlete to ever win the 1500m title. Related: Katarina Johnson-Thompson […]

• Briton beats world champion Schippers with 21.89sec• Asher-Smith had already won gold in 100mTwo down, one to go. On an evening where the westerlies carried the first hints of autumn Dina Asher-Smith lit up the Olympiastadion with a scalding display of power and poise to add the European Championships 200m title to the 100m […]

• Briton believes working on shot put and javelin has paid off• ‘I feel like I’ve figured out the heptathlon’Katarina Johnson-Thompson has promised she will be even better in 2019 after smashing her heptathlon personal best to win European Championships silver in Berlin on Friday. She also revealed that a calf injury was so serious […]

The inaugural event in Berlin and Glasgow has proved to be a success, particularly on televisionThe inaugural European Championships – this hotchpotch, hybrid conglomerate of several sports bundled into one sporting feast – concludes on Sunday in Berlin and Glasgow and the many satellite Scottish sites that have been roped in, in the cause of […]

• Norwegian becomes youngest ever European champion• Matthew Hudson-Smith races to 400m win for BritainSeventeen-year-old Jakob Ingebrigtsen became the youngest European champion in history by claiming a shock gold on a night where Britain won four more medals in Berlin, including gold for Matthew Hudson-Smith.Ingebrigtsen, one of three Norwegian brothers in the men’s 1500m final, […]

• British heptathlete finishes 57 points behind Nafi Thiam• Johnson-Thompson led Belgian by 87 points overnightTime and time again Katarina Johnson-Thompson threw everything bar her size-eight spikes at Nafi Thiam. First came a 200m that ranked as the fastest ever in a European Championship heptathlon. Then a javelin personal best just when her Belgian rival […]

• Muir back to her best after altitude training in Switzerland• No British woman has won European gold at 1500mLaura Muir has declared herself fit, confident and ready to make history after recovering from an achilles niggle that stopped her doubling up at the European Championships. Related: Laura Muir: ‘I would have a lot easier […]

• Briton leads heptathlon favourite Nafi Thiam by 87 points• ‘I just wanted to attack and it paid off,’ says Johnson-ThompsonKatarina Johnson-Thompson went toe to toe with the best female athlete on the planet during a compelling first day of the heptathlon – and ended it on the front foot and gunning for European Championship […]