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This Bulletin provides policymakers with information that will
help them to determine the appropriate space needed to
accommodate the number of juvenile offenders expected to be
placed in residential facilities.

Abstract:

Efforts to anticipate future space needs in juvenile detention
and juvenile corrections facilities should involve more than an
occasional analysis of juvenile arrest trends. Ideally, juvenile
justice decision makers should anticipate future demands for space
by engaging in a population forecasting process annually or
semiannually. Forecasting involves statistical predictions of
future corrections populations, but the results of such
projections serve as the beginning of an agency's decision making
process rather than the end. Forecasting encourages policymakers
and practitioners to use statistical projections to reflect on
recent trends and discuss their expectations of the future due to
those trends. The accuracy of these expectations can then be
reviewed during the next forecasting session. When projections
fail to anticipate future conditions, forecasters should seek to
explain why actual populations differ from projected populations.
Decision makers then have the opportunity to learn about the
effects of practice and policy actions that were not included in
the projection. Over time, a forecasting process helps
decision makers to anticipate the consequences of policies and
practices regarding secure bed space without undue reliance on
statistical analysis. A table describes models commonly used to
project corrections populations. 6 notes and 10 references

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