Population

Somalia's first national census was taken in February 1975, and as of
mid-1992 no further census had been conducted. In the absence of
independent verification, the reliability of the 1975 count has been
questioned because those conducting it may have overstated the size of
their own clans and lineage groups to augment their allocations of
political and economic resources. The census nonetheless included a
complete enumeration in all urban and settled rural areas and a sample
enumeration of the nomadic population. In the latter case, the sampling
units were chiefly watering points. Preliminary results of that census
were made public as part of the Three-Year Plan, 1979-81, issued by the
Ministry of National Planning in existence at the time. (Because the
Somali state had disintegrated and the government's physical
infrastructure had been destroyed, no ministry of planning, or indeed
any other government ministry, existed in mid-1992.) Somali officials
suggested that the 1975 census undercounted the nomadic population
substantially, in part because the count took place during one of the
worst droughts in Somalia's recorded history, a time when many people
were moving in search of food and water.

The total population according to the 1975 census was 3.3 million.
The United Nations (UN) estimated Somalia's population in mid-1991 at
nearly 7.7 million. Not included were numerous refugees who had fled
from the Ogaden (Ogaadeen) in Ethiopia to Somalia beginning in the
mid-1970s.

The Ministry of National Planning's preliminary census data
distinguished three main categories of residents: nomads, settled
farmers, and persons in nonagricultural occupations. Settled farmers
lived in permanent settlements outside the national, regional, and
district capitals, although some of these were in fact pastoralists, and
others might have been craftsmen and small traders. Those living in
urban centers were defined as nonagricultural regardless of their
occupations. In 1975 nomads constituted nearly 59 percent of the
population, settled persons nearly 22 percent, and nonagricultural
persons more than 19 percent. Of the population categorized as nomads,
about 30 percent were considered seminomadic because of their relatively
permanent settlements and shorter range of seasonal migration.

Various segments of the population apparently increased at different
rates. The nomadic population grew at less than 2 percent a year, and
the seminomadic, fully settled rural and urban populations (in that
order) at higher rates--well over 2.5 percent in the case of the urban
population. These varied rates of growth coupled with increasing
urbanization and the efforts, even if of limited success, to settle
nomads as cultivators or fishermen were likely to diminish the
proportion of nomads in the population.

The 1975 census did not indicate the composition of the population by
age and sex. Estimates suggested, however, that more than 45 percent of
the total was under fifteen years of age, only about 2 percent was over
sixty-five years, and that there were more males than females among the
nomadic population and proportionately fewer males in urban areas.

Population densities varied widely. The areas of greatest rural
density were the settled zones adjacent to the Jubba and Shabeelle
rivers, a few places between them, and several small areas in the
northern highlands. The most lightly populated zones (fewer than six
persons per square kilometer) were in northeastern and central Somalia,
but there were some sparsely populated areas in the far southwest along
the Kenyan border.

The nomadic and seminomadic segments of the population traditionally
engage in cyclical migrations related to the seasons, particularly in
northern and northeastern Somalia. During the dry season, the nomads of
the Ogo highlands and plateau areas in the north and the Nugaal Valley
in the northeast generally congregate in villages or large encampments
at permanent wells or other reliable sources of water. When the rains
come, the nomads scatter with their herds throughout the vast expanse of
the Haud, where they live in dispersed small encampments during the wet
season, or as long as animal forage and water last. When these resources
are depleted, the area empties as the nomads return to their home areas.
In most cases, adult men and women and their children remain with the
sheep, goats, burden camels, and, occasionally, cattle. Grazing camels
are herded at some distance by boys and young unmarried men.

A nomadic population also inhabits the southwest between the Jubba
River and the Kenyan border. Little is known about the migratory
patterns or dispersal of these peoples.

Somalia's best arable lands lie along the Jubba and Shabeelle rivers
and in the interriverine area. Most of the sedentary rural population
resides in the area in permanent agricultural villages and settlements.
Nomads are also found in this area, but many pastoralists engage
part-time in farming, and the range of seasonal migrations is more
restricted. After the spring rains begin, herders move from the river
edge into the interior. They return to the rivers in the dry season (hagaa),
but move again to the interior in October and November if the second
rainy season (day) permits. They then retreat to the rivers
until the next spring rains. The sedentary population was augmented in
the mid-1970s by the arrival of more than 100,000 nomads who came from
the drought-stricken north and northeast to take up agricultural
occupations in the southwest. However, the 1980s saw some Somalis return
to nomadism; data on the extent of this reverse movement remain
unavailable.

The locations of many towns appear to have been determined by trade
factors. The present-day major ports, which range from Chisimayu and
Mogadishu in the southwest to Berbera and Saylac in the far northwest,
were founded from the eighth to the tenth centuries A.D. by Arab and
Persian immigrants. They became centers of commerce with the interior, a
function they continued to perform in the 1990s, although some towns,
such as Saylac, had declined because of the diminution of the dhow trade
and repeated Ethiopian raids. Unlike in other areas of coastal Africa,
important fishing ports failed to develop despite the substantial
piscine resources of the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden. This failure
appears to reflect the centuries-old Somali aversion to eating fish and
the absence of any sizable inland market. Some of the towns south of
Mogadishu have long been sites of non-Somali fishing communities,
however. The fisheries' potential and the need to expand food
production, coupled with the problem of finding occupations for nomads
ruined by the 1974-75 drought, resulted in government incentives to
nomad families to settle permanently in fishing cooperatives; about
15,000 nomads were reported established in such cooperatives in late
1975.

Present-day inland trading centers in otherwise sparsely populated
areas began their existence as caravan crossing points or as regular
stopping places along caravan routes. In some cases, the ready
availability of water throughout the year led to the growth of
substantial settlements providing market and service facilities to
nomadic populations. One such settlement is Galcaio, an oasis in the
Mudug Plain that has permanent wells.

The distribution of town and villages in the agricultural areas of
the Jubba and Shabeelle rivers is related in part to the development of
market centers by the sedentary population. But the origin of a
considerable number of such settlements derives from the founding of
agricultural religious communities (jamaat) by various Islamic
brotherhoods during the nineteenth century. An example is the large town
of Baardheere, on the Jubba River in the Gedo Region, which evolved from
a jamaa founded in 1819. Hargeysa, the largest
town in northern Somalia, also started as a religious community in the
second half of the nineteenth century. However, growth into the
country's second biggest city was stimulated mainly by its selection in
1942 as the administrative center for British Somaliland. In 1988
Hargeysa was virtually destroyed by troops loyal to Siad Barre in the
course of putting down the Isaaq insurrection.

After the establishment of a number of new regions (for a total of
sixteen as of early 1992, including Mogadishu) and districts (second
order administrative areas--sixty-nine as of 1989 plus fifteen in the
capital region), the government defined towns to include all regional
and district headquarters regardless of size. (When the civil war broke
out in 1991, the regional administrative system was nullified and
replaced by one based on regional clan groups.) Also defined as towns
were all other communities having populations of 2,000 or more. Some
administrative headquarters were much smaller than that. Data on the
number of communities specified as urban in the 1975 census were not
available except for the region of Mogadishu. At that time, the capital
had 380,000 residents, slightly more than 52 percent of all persons in
the category of "nonagricultural" (taken to be largely urban).
Only three other regions--Woqooyi Galbeed, Shabeellaha Hoose, and the
Bay--had urban populations constituting 7 to 9 percent of the total
urban population in 1975. The sole town of importance in Woqooyi Galbeed
Region at that time was Hargeysa. Berbera was much smaller, but as a
port on the Gulf of Aden it had the potential to grow considerably. The
chief town in Shabeellaha Hoose Region was Merca, which was of some
importance as a port. There were several other port towns, such as
Baraawe, and some inland communities that served as sites for light
manufacturing or food processing. In the Bay Region the major towns,
Baidoa and Buurhakaba, were located in relatively densely settled
agricultural areas. There were a few important towns in other regions:
the port of Chisimayu in Jubbada Hoose and Dujuuma in the agricultural
area of Jubbada Dhexe.