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Abstract:

Various embodiments pertain to techniques for forecasting and providing
guaranteed delivery of ad impression opportunities using real-time bidded
platform inventories. In various embodiments, bid landscape data, such as
information regarding a number of impression requests by a particular
supply unit, a time of the impression requests, and an amount of a
winning bid for the impression requests, is recorded for use in
forecasting an available impression volume as a function of cost. The
forecasted available impression volume represents a number of ad
impression requests likely to be obtained through real-time bidding
channels. In various embodiments, an advertiser can place an order for a
number of ad impressions at a particular price, and the ad impressions
ordered can be specifically allocated for that advertiser. The number of
ad impressions ordered by an advertiser that are guaranteed vary
depending on the price and the available volume forecasted at that price.

Claims:

1. A computer-implemented method comprising: identifying an ad impression
opportunity to be obtained from a non-guaranteed source of ad
impressions; receiving information regarding a sale of the ad impression
opportunity by the non-guaranteed source of ad impressions; and
forecasting, based on received information regarding the sale of the ad
impression opportunity, a forecasted available volume of ad impressions.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, the non-guaranteed source
of ad impressions comprising at least one real-time bidded platform.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, receiving information
regarding the sale of the ad impression opportunity comprising receiving:
information that a bid transmitted is a winning bid, information that
there has been a higher bid than a bid transmitted, information that an
auction for the ad impression opportunity was won or lost, information
regarding a winning bid amount, or information regarding an amount of a
clearing price for the ad impression opportunity.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:
receiving an order for at least one ad impression; and guaranteeing,
based on the forecasted available volume of ad impressions, delivery of
the at least one ad impression ordered.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 4, further comprising:
responsive to guaranteeing delivery of the at least one ad impression
ordered, updating the forecasted available volume of ad impressions.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 4, further comprising:
obtaining, from the non-guaranteed source of ad impressions, at least one
ad impression to fulfill the order.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 6, obtaining at least one ad
impression to fulfill the order comprising transmitting a winning bid to
the non-guaranteed source of ad impressions.

8. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:
receiving an order for at least one ad impression; and proposing, based
on the forecasted available volume of ad impressions, an alternative
order for at least one ad impression.

9. The computer-implemented method of claim 8, proposing an alternative
order comprising proposing an order for at least one ad impression at an
alternative price, the alternative price being higher than a price in the
received order.

10. One or more computer-readable storage media comprising instructions
that are executable to cause a device to perform a process comprising:
receiving an order for a number of ad impressions at a price; comparing
the number of ad impressions in the order to a forecasted available
volume of ad impressions at the price, the forecasted available volume of
ad impressions being determined based on historical bid landscape data;
and responsive to the number of ad impressions in the order being less
than or equal to the forecasted available volume of ad impressions at the
price, guaranteeing a delivery of the number of ad impressions.

11. The one or more computer-readable storage media of claim 10, the
process further comprising: receiving a non-guaranteed ad impression
opportunity; transmitting, to a source of the non-guaranteed ad
impression opportunity, a bid to purchase the non-guaranteed ad
impression opportunity; and receiving information regarding a sale of the
non-guaranteed ad impression opportunity.

12. The one or more computer-readable storage media of claim 11,
receiving information regarding the sale of the non-guaranteed ad
impression opportunity comprising receiving: information that the
transmitted bid is a winning bid, information that there has been a
higher bid than the transmitted bid, information that an auction for the
non-guaranteed ad impression opportunity was won or lost, information
regarding a time of the sale of the non-guaranteed ad impression
opportunity, information regarding a winning bid amount, or information
regarding an amount of a clearing price for the ad impression
opportunity.

13. The one or more computer-readable storage media of claim 11, the
process further comprising: including the received information regarding
the sale of the non-guaranteed ad impression opportunity in the
historical bid landscape data; and calculating an updated forecasted
available volume of ad impressions.

14. The one or more computer-readable storage media of claim 10, the
process further comprising: obtaining, from a non-guaranteed source of ad
impressions, ad impressions to fulfill the order.

15. The one or more computer-readable storage media of claim 14,
obtaining ad impressions comprising transmitting a winning bid to
purchase the ad impressions available in an auction.

16. The one or more computer-readable storage media of claim 14, the
source of the non-guaranteed ad impressions being a real-time bidded
platform.

17. A device comprising: one or more processors; one or more
computer-readable storage media; and one or more modules embodied on the
one or more computer-readable storage media and executable under the
influence of the one or more processors, the one or more modules
configured to: identify an ad impression opportunity to be obtained from
a non-guaranteed source of ad impressions; receive information regarding
a sale of the ad impression opportunity by the non-guaranteed source of
ad impressions; forecast, based on received information regarding the
sale of the ad impression opportunity, a forecasted available volume of
ad impressions; receive an order for a number of ad impressions at a
price; compare the number of ad impressions in the order to the
forecasted available volume of ad impressions at the price; and
responsive to the number of ad impressions in the order being less than
or equal to the forecasted available volume of ad impressions at the
price, guarantee a delivery of the number of ad impressions.

18. The device of claim 17, the one or more modules further configured
to: transmit a bid to purchase a subsequent ad impression opportunity
from the non-guaranteed source of ad impressions; receive information
regarding a sale of the subsequent ad impression opportunity; and update
the forecasted available volume of ad impressions using the received
information regarding the sale of the subsequent ad impression
opportunity.

19. The device of claim 18, wherein the received information regarding
the sale of the subsequent ad impression opportunity comprises
information that the transmitted bid is a winning bid, information that
there has been a higher bid than the transmitted bid, information that an
auction for the subsequent ad impression opportunity was won or lost,
information regarding a time of the sale of the subsequent ad impression
opportunity, information regarding a winning bid amount, or information
regarding an amount of a clearing price for the ad impression
opportunity.

20. The device of claim 18, wherein the information regarding the sale of
the subsequent ad impression opportunity comprises information that the
bid to purchase the subsequent ad impression opportunity is a winning
bid.

Description:

BACKGROUND

[0001] Online publishers typically provide or allocate portions of their
online media surfaces (including web pages and applications), for
advertising purposes as a means of media monetization. When this media is
used, loaded or viewed, there is an opportunity to populate these areas
with an advertisement, sometimes referred to as an impression
opportunity. Some of the impression opportunities are available for
advertising products, services or businesses not directly provided by or
related to the online publishers. These impression opportunities can be
made available to advertisers and/or advertising agencies for a price
either directly, or through various platforms operating as middlemen such
as one or more advertising networks (sometimes referred to as "ad
networks"), one or more demand-side platforms (DSPs), or one or more
real-time bidding ("RTB") platforms such as advertising exchanges
(sometimes referred to as "ad exchanges"). In some instances, ad
exchanges provide a platform for the buying and selling of advertising
impressions by consolidating and managing impression opportunities across
a number of publishers or resellers and making them available for a
number of advertisers or advertising agencies or other resellers, usually
through a RTB interface. Advertisers interested in impression
opportunities may be represented by one or more advertising agencies that
procure or buy impression opportunities based on the advertising campaign
using the RTB platform.

[0002] Impression opportunities can be guaranteed in some instances and
non-guaranteed in other instances. For example, an advertiser or
advertising agency can purchase a guaranteed number of impression
opportunities from an ad network that has been allotted a certain number
of impression opportunities by online publishers. Alternately or
additionally, an advertiser can purchase a non-guaranteed number of
impression opportunities from one or more ad exchanges via a demand-side
platform ("DSP"). Impression opportunities from DSPs may be less costly
per impression because they are not guaranteed. Since DSPs obtain at
least a portion of their impression opportunities from RTB platforms
rather than an allocation, it can be difficult to guarantee delivery of a
number of ad impression opportunities to an advertiser.

SUMMARY

[0003] This Summary is provided to introduce a selection of concepts in a
simplified form that are further described below in the Detailed
Description. This Summary is not intended to identify key features or
essential features of the claimed subject matter, nor is it intended to
be used to limit the scope of the claimed subject matter.

[0004] Various embodiments pertain to techniques for forecasting and
providing guaranteed delivery of ad impression opportunities using
RTB-sourced inventories. In various embodiments, a system records bid
landscape data for use in forecasting an available impression volume as a
function of cost. Bid landscape data can include information regarding a
number of impression requests by a particular supply unit, a time of the
impression requests, and an amount of a winning bid for the impression
requests. Additional data available from the requests can be used to
forecast the volume of impressions with a specific data configuration as
a function of cost. The forecasted available impression volume can
represent a number of ad impression requests likely to be obtained
through RTB platforms. In various embodiments, an advertiser can place an
order for a number of ad impressions at a particular price and with a
particular composition of data configuration, and the ad impressions
ordered can be specifically allocated for that advertiser. The number of
ad impressions ordered by an advertiser that are guaranteed can vary
depending on the price indicated by the advertiser and the available
volume forecasted at that price.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0005] While the specification concludes with claims particularly pointing
out and distinctly claiming the subject matter, it is believed that the
embodiments will be better understood from the following description in
conjunction with the accompanying figures, in which:

[0006] FIG. 1 illustrates an example operating environment in accordance
with one or more embodiments;

[0007] FIG. 2 illustrates an example advertisement platform in accordance
with one or more embodiments;

[0008] FIG. 3 is a block diagram of an example process in accordance with
one or more embodiments;

[0009] FIG. 4 is a block diagram of an example process in accordance with
one or more embodiments;

[0010] FIG. 5 is a block diagram of an example process in accordance with
one or more embodiments; and

[0011] FIG. 6 illustrates an example device that can be used to implement
one or more embodiments.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Overview

[0012] Various embodiments pertain to techniques for forecasting and
providing guaranteed delivery of ad impression opportunities using
real-time bidded inventories. In various embodiments, a system records
bid landscape data for use in forecasting an available impression volume
as a function of cost. Bid landscape data can include information
regarding a number of impression requests by a particular supply unit, a
time of the impression requests, an amount of a winning bid for the
impression requests, an amount of a clearing price for the impression
requests, and other information from real-time bidding or auctioning of
ad impressions. The forecasted available impression volume can represent
a number of ad impression requests likely to be obtained through RTB
platforms.

[0013] In various embodiments, an advertiser can place an order for a
number of guaranteed ad impressions at a particular price. For example,
the advertiser can place an order for ten thousand ad impressions at a
price of two dollars per impression. The ad impressions ordered can be
specifically allocated within the available impressions for that
advertiser, and the available impression volume is adjusted accordingly.
The number of ad impressions ordered by an advertiser that are guaranteed
can vary depending on the price indicated by the advertiser and the
available volume forecasted at that price. For example, if the forecasted
available impression volume at the two dollar price point is greater than
ten thousand ad impressions, the advertiser's order can be guaranteed.
However, if the forecasted available impression volume at the two dollar
price point is less than ten thousand ad impressions, a portion of the
advertiser's order may be guaranteed while another portion of the
advertiser's order may not be guaranteed. In some embodiments, an
alternative price can be suggested to an advertiser such that the price
enables a guarantee to be made for the requested number of ad
impressions.

[0014] In the discussion that follows, a section entitled "Example
Operating Environment" describes an operating environment in accordance
with one or more embodiments. Next, a section entitled "Example
Embodiments" describes various techniques for forecasting an available
volume of ad impressions for use in guaranteeing delivery of ad
impressions. Finally, a section entitled "Example Device" describes a
device that can be used to implement one or more embodiments.

[0015] Consider now, an example operating environment in accordance with
one or more embodiments.

[0016] Example Operating Environment

[0017] FIG. 1 is an illustration of an example environment 100 in
accordance with one or more embodiments. Environment 100 includes a
client device 102 communicatively coupled to an advertising server 104
through a network 106.

[0018] Client device 102 can include one or more processors 108 and
computer-readable storage media 110. Client device 102 can be embodied as
any suitable computing device such as, by way of example and not
limitation, a desktop computer, a portable computer, a netbook, a
handheld computer such as a personal digital assistant (PDA), a cell
phone, and the like.

[0019] Computer-readable storage media 110 includes one or more software
applications, which can include a software executable module in the form
of an ad platform user interface 112. Ad platform user interface 112 can
receive content from and send content to other servers, such as
advertising server 104, via network 106, such as the Internet. In various
embodiments, ad platform user interface 112 is configured to ascertain a
user input regarding a desired number of ad impressions and send an order
for a number of ad impressions to an advertisement platform 114.
Responsive to the order, advertisement platform 114 can attempt to obtain
ad impressions on behalf of the client device 102.

[0020] Ad impressions may be impression opportunities that can include any
form or type of space or region on a web page or program or application.
The impression opportunity may overlap with, reside within, or be part of
content on the web page or program or application (e.g., locations for
banners, ad blocks, sponsored listings, margin ads, flash displays, and
the like), although in some embodiments, the impression opportunity does
not directly reside on a web page or program or application. For example,
in some embodiments, an impression opportunity in the form of a pop up
window may be generated in response to a user action, such as clicking a
button on an input device or causing a mouse indicator to hover over a
particular portion of the web page. In some embodiments, the impression
opportunity is temporal, e.g., associated with a time slot, such as
before a requested video clip or at a particular time of day.

[0021] In various embodiments, impression opportunities or ad impressions
from various sources, such as online publishers or ad impression
resellers, can be consolidated and sold to advertisers via the
advertisement platform 114. Advertisement platform 114 resides on
computer-readable storage media 116 of advertising server 104. In
addition to computer-readable storage media 116, advertising server 104
also includes one or more processors 118 configured to execute the
software modules, e.g., advertisement platform 114, residing on
computer-readable storage media 116. In various embodiments, advertising
platform 114 is configured to receive and process orders for ad
impressions from client device 102. Advertising platform 114 is also
configured to obtain ad impressions to fulfill the order from an
inventory of non-guaranteed ad impressions. The ad impressions can be
obtained from one or more impressions providers, such as impression
provider 120, each of which can represent ad impressions from one or more
online publishers.

[0022] In various embodiments, impression provider 120 is a RTB platform
(e.g., a real-time bidded inventory of ad impressions). In various
embodiments, RTB platforms can serve to broker transactions between
advertisement platform 114 and the online publishers. For example,
advertisement platform 114 may make a bid on a number of ad impressions
and the RTB platform can institute an auction for the ad impressions. If
advertisement platform 114 wins the auction, it can then fulfill the
order received from client device 102 with the ad impressions won.

[0023] In various embodiments, regardless of whether advertisement
platform 114 wins an auction from impression provider 120, advertisement
platform 114 records information about the auction, or bid landscape
data. Bid landscape data can include information regarding a number of
impression requests by a particular supply unit, a time of the impression
requests, an amount of a winning bid for the impression requests, an
amount of a winning clearing price for the impression requests, and/or
other information from real-time bidding or auctioning of ad impressions.
Utilizing this data, advertisement platform 114 is configured to forecast
an available impression volume representing a number of ad impression
requests likely to be obtained from various impression providers as a
function of cost. In various embodiments, advertisement platform 114 can
guarantee a number of impressions less than or equal to the available
impression volume in response to an order received from client device
102, as described in more detail below.

[0024] The computer-readable storage media included in each device or
server can include, by way of example and not limitation, all forms of
volatile and non-volatile memory and/or storage media that are typically
associated with a computing device. Such media can include ROM, RAM,
flash memory, hard disk, removable media and the like. One specific,
example of a computing device is shown and described below in FIG. 6.

[0025] Generally, any of the functions described herein can be implemented
using software, firmware, hardware (e.g., fixed logic circuitry) or a
combination of these implementations. The terms "module,"
"functionality," and "logic" as used herein generally represent software,
firmware, hardware, or a combination thereof. In the case of a software
implementation, the module, functionality, or logic represent program
code that performs specified tasks when executed on a processor (e.g.,
CPU or CPUs). The program code can be stored in one or more
computer-readable memory devices. The features of the user interface
techniques described below are platform-independent, meaning that the
techniques may be implemented on a variety of commercial computing
platforms having a variety of processors.

[0026] Environment 100 is referenced by the following description of
various embodiments in which guaranteed delivery of ad impression
opportunities is provided and fulfilled using RTB platform inventories.

Example Embodiments

[0027] FIG. 2 illustrates an advertisement platform 200 in accordance with
one or more embodiments. Advertisement platform 200 can be, for example,
advertisement platform 114 as illustrated in FIG. 1. As shown in FIG. 2,
advertisement platform 200 includes a forecasting module 202 and a
bidding module 204. Other components may be included, depending on the
particular embodiment.

[0028] In one or more embodiments, forecasting module 202 is configured to
record information about auctions, or bid landscape data, and determine
an available impression volume. Bid landscape data can include
information regarding a number of impression requests by a particular
supply unit, a time of the impression requests, an amount of a winning
bid for the impression requests, an amount of a winning clearing price
for the impression requests, and other information from real-time bidding
or auctioning of ad impressions. The forecasted available impression
volume represents a number of ad impression requests likely to be
obtained from various impression providers as a function of cost. In
various embodiments, advertisement platform 200 can guarantee a number of
impressions less than or equal to the available impression volume in
response to an order received from client device 102.

[0029] In one or more embodiments, bidding module 204 is configured to
receive ad impression opportunities, such as from impression providers,
identify ad impression opportunities on which to bid, and transmit bids
for those ad impression opportunities. In other words, bidding module 204
is configured to obtain ad impressions from impression providers for
delivery to advertisers according to received orders. Working together,
forecasting module 202 and bidding module 204 enable advertisement
platform 200 forecast an amount of ad impressions that can be guaranteed
according to various constraints and obtain ad impressions to fulfill
guaranteed orders from an inventory of non-guaranteed ad impressions.

[0030] FIG. 3 is a block diagram of an example process 300 for determining
an available ad impression volume in accordance with one or more
embodiments. The process can be implemented in connection with any
suitable hardware, software, firmware, or combination thereof. In at
least some embodiments, the process can be implemented in software, such
as by advertisement platform 114 or advertisement platform 200.

[0031] Block 302 receives an order for ad impressions. This can be
performed in any suitable way. For example, advertisement platform 114
can receive an order for ad impressions from client device 102 via
network 106. In various embodiments, more than one order for ad
impressions is received from one or more client devices.

[0032] Next, block 304 receives an ad impression opportunity from
anon-guaranteed source of ad impressions. This can be performed in any
suitable way. For example, advertisement platform 114 can receive one or
more ad impression opportunities from at least one impression providers,
such as impression provider 120. In various embodiments, advertisement
platform 114 receives ad impression opportunities from various real-time
bidding platforms, in some embodiments, one or more ad networks.

[0033] Block 306 identifies an ad impression opportunity on which to bid.
This can be performed in any suitable way. For example, advertisement
platform 114 can determine that at least one of the ad impression
opportunities received by block 304 includes inventory that can be used
to fill an order for ad impressions received by block 302. Some ad
impression opportunities may not be suitable for bidding, since the ad
impression opportunities may be related to content or audiences that are
not in line with the advertiser's campaign. For example, advertisement
platform 114 may receive an order for ad impressions from an advertiser
running a car advertisement campaign, so ad impression opportunities on
websites directed to pre-teen girls may not be desired by the advertiser
for that particular campaign. However, when advertisement platform 114
receives an ad impression opportunity for space on a sports website from
impression provider 120, block 306 may identify it as an ad impression
opportunity on which to bid.

[0034] Block 308 transmits a bid for the ad impression opportunity
identified by block 306. This can be performed in any suitable way. For
example, advertisement platform 114 can transmit a bid, such as $1 for an
impression, to impression provider 120 through network 106. The amount of
the bid transmitted can be determined according to a variety of factors,
including but not limited to, the price for which the guaranteed
impressions have been sold to the advertiser, whether the advertiser is
ahead, on track or behind their impression delivery goal schedule, what
the competing internal and external demand is bidding, a cap identified
by the advertiser and included as part of the order for ad impressions
received by block 302, historical data gathered by advertising platform
114, or the like.

[0035] Next, block 310 receives information regarding the sale of the ad
impression opportunity. For example, block 310 can receive information
that the bid transmitted by block 308 is a winning bid, that there has
been a higher bid than the one transmitted by block 308, that the auction
for the ad impression opportunity was won or lost, or information
regarding the winning bid amount. This can be performed in any suitable
way. For example, advertisement platform 114 can receive information
regarding the outcome of the ad impression from impression provider 120
through network 106. The information received by block 310 is information
that a notification of a win on a bid was not received. For example, if a
notification that an auction was won is not received within a
predetermined amount of time responsive to block 308 transmitting a bid,
advertisement platform can receive information indicating that no
information was received. In some embodiments, the received information
can be generated by bidding module 204 and received by forecasting module
202.

[0036] Block 312 records the information regarding the sale of the ad
impression opportunity that was received by block 210. This can be
performed in any suitable way. For example, advertisement platform 114
can cause the information received from impression provider 120 to be
stored on computer-readable media of advertising server 104. The loop
from block 304 through 312 is repeated for each ad impression opportunity
received. In some embodiments, information regarding an ad impression
opportunity is recorded regardless of whether block 306 identifies it as
an opportunity on which to bid. In other embodiments, information
recorded can be limited to information regarding ad impression
opportunities for which block 308 transmits a bid.

[0037] After information regarding the outcome of the ad impression
opportunity is recorded by block 312, block 314 updates a forecast of
available ad impressions. This can be performed in any suitable way. For
example, in embodiments in which advertisement platform 114 is
advertisement platform 200, forecasting module 202 can utilize the
recorded information to determine an available ad impression volume such
that orders received by block 302 at a given price can be guaranteed to
the advertiser despite the uncertain nature of obtaining ad impressions
through bidding. Bidding module 204 can utilize the updated forecast of
available ad impressions to identify an ad impression opportunity on
which to bid at block 306.

[0038] FIG. 4 depicts an example process 400 for utilizing information
regarding the outcome of an ad impression opportunity to guarantee an
order for ad impressions in accordance with one or more embodiments. The
process can be implemented in connection with any suitable hardware,
software, firmware, or combination thereof. In at least some embodiments,
the process can be implemented in software, such as by advertisement
platform 114 or advertisement platform 200.

[0039] Block 402 records information regarding a sale of an ad impression
opportunity. This can be performed in any suitable way. For example,
forecasting module 202 can record information regarding an outcome of an
ad impression opportunity for which bidding module 204 submitted a bid.

[0040] Next, block 404 determines an available impression volume. This can
be performed in any suitable way. For example, information recorded by
block 402 can be input by forecasting module 202 into an algorithm to
predict a price that will result in winning a given number of ad
impressions. The information obtained and recorded by block 402 can be
used to generate a graph depicting volume of ad impressions versus price.
In some embodiments, the price can vary depending on a time (e.g., a time
of day, a day of the week, or a time of month) or on some other factor,
such as a target audience or properties of the ad impression. In various
embodiments, the available impression volume can include inventory
obtained from RTB platforms, although in some embodiments, the available
impression volume can include inventory obtained from ad networks or
other guaranteed ad impression supplies, in addition to inventory
obtained from non-guaranteed sources of ad impressions, such as ad
exchanges or other real-time bidded supplies.

[0041] Block 406 receives an order for ad impressions. This can be
performed in any suitable way, examples of which are provided above and
below. Next, block 408 determines if the number of ad impressions ordered
is less than the available impression volume. This can be performed in
any suitable way. For example, advertisement platform 200 can compare the
number of ad impressions included in the order received by block 406 with
the available impression volume determine by block 404. If the number of
ordered ad impressions is less than the available impression volume,
block 410 guarantees the order for ad impressions received by block 406,
and block 412 updates the available impression volume accordingly. In
some embodiments, if the number of ordered ad impressions is equal to the
available impression volume, block 410 guarantees the order for ad
impressions.

[0042] If, however, the number of ad impressions is greater than the
number of available ad impressions, block 414 proposes an alternative
order. This can be performed in any suitable way. For example,
advertisement platform 200 can transmit a message to client device 102
through network 106 to be displayed to a user via ad platform user
interface 112. The message can propose an alternative price, an
alternative number of impressions, or some combination thereof. In
various embodiments, the alternative order includes an alternative price
that is higher than a price in the received order or an alternative
number of impressions that is lower than the number of impressions in the
received order. For example, if a request for 5,000 ad impressions at a
CPM of $1 is not within the available impression volume, advertisement
platform 114 may propose an order of 5,000 ad impressions at a CPM of $3,
or an order of 2,000 ad impressions at a CPM of $1. In some embodiments,
various alternative orders may be proposed.

[0043] Block 416 determines whether the alternative order is accepted.
This can be performed in any suitable way. For example, advertisement
platform 200 can receive an acceptance from client device 102 of the
alternative order proposed by block 414, or a rejection of the
alternative order.

[0044] If the alternative order is not accepted, the process can return to
block 414 and propose another alternative order. Additional alternative
orders can be proposed until an alternative order is determined to have
been accepted by block 416, or a particular number of alternative orders
was proposed. For example, upon the rejection of the second alternative
order, the process may end and an advertiser can transmit a new order for
ad impressions to be received by block 406.

[0045] When an alternative order is accepted, block 418 guarantees the
alternative order, and block 412 updates the available impression volume.
Block 412 can update the available impression volume in any suitable way.
For example, the number of ad impressions guaranteed by blocks 410 or 418
can be deducted from the number of available impressions to result in an
updated available impression volume. Once the available impression volume
is updated, block 406 can receive the next order for ad impressions and
compare the number of newly ordered ad impressions to the updated
available impression volume.

[0046] While FIG. 4 describes a method in which orders for a number of
impressions exceeding the available impression volume are not guaranteed,
in some embodiments, orders for a number of impressions greater than the
available impression volume can be guaranteed. For example, if an order
is of high value, it may be booked guaranteed and prioritized above other
orders with lower values.

[0047] FIG. 5 is a block diagram of an example process 500 of fulfilling
guaranteed ad impression orders in accordance with one or more
embodiments. The process can be implemented in connection with any
suitable hardware, software, firmware, or combination thereof. In at
least some embodiments, the process can be implemented in software, such
as advertisement platform 114 or advertisement platform 200.

[0048] Block 502 receives an order for ad impressions. This can be
performed in any suitable way, examples of which are provided above and
below. Next, block 504 guarantees the order for ad impressions. This can
be performed in any suitable way, examples of which are provided above
and below.

[0049] Block 506 receives an ad impression opportunity on which to bid.
This can be performed in any suitable way, examples of which are provided
above and below. Block 508 transmits a bid for the ad impression
opportunity. This can be performed in any suitable way. For example,
bidding module 204 can transmit a bid to an impression provider 120.

[0050] Next, block 510 receives information regarding the outcome of the
ad impression opportunity. This can be performed in any suitable way,
examples of which are provided above and below. Block 512 records the
information regarding the outcome of the ad impression opportunity. This
can be performed in any suitable way, examples of which are provided
above and below. The recorded information can be used by blocks 502 and
504, for example, to determine pricing and availability.

[0051] Block 514 determines, based on the information received by block
510, whether the ad impression opportunity was won. This can be performed
in any suitable way, examples of which are provided above and below. If
the ad impression opportunity was won, block 516 fulfills the order for
ad impressions received by block 502. If, however, the ad impression
opportunity was not won, the process returns to block 506 to receive
additional ad impression opportunities on which to bid.

[0052] The processes described above can enable an advertiser to purchase
guaranteed ad impressions from an advertisement platform when the
availability of ad impressions is not guaranteed to the platform.
Traditionally, advertisement platforms could guarantee delivery of ad
impressions when they were themselves guaranteed an inventory of
impressions. For example, an advertisement platform could be allocated X
number of ad impressions at price Y from certain publishers. With the
knowledge that they could guarantee X ad impressions to advertisers, the
advertisement platform could sell the ad impressions as guaranteed for a
premium price. If, however, the advertisement platform did not have a
guaranteed inventory from a particular publisher, ad impressions could be
obtained through RTB platforms. Because advertisement platforms were
uncertain as to whether they would be able to obtain the inventory
ordered by an advertiser, the ad impressions were sold at a lower price
and were not guaranteed.

[0053] Various embodiments described herein enable an advertisement
platform to sell guaranteed ad impressions at a premium price to
advertisers, even when the advertisement platform does not have a
guaranteed inventory of ad impressions from which to fulfill the
advertiser's order. In particular, the forecasting techniques described
herein enable the advertising platform to monitor the outcome of various
auctions or opportunities to obtain ad impressions and track the price to
obtain the impressions. Based on that information, the advertisement
platform may predict an available ad impression volume according to cost,
time, or other constraints. When the advertisement platform receives an
order for ad impressions, it can determine whether the order is likely to
be fulfilled based on historical data, and if it is likely within a
pre-determined risk threshold, the advertisement platform can guarantee
the delivery of the order. The pre-determined risk threshold can vary
depending on the particular embodiment according to the amount of risk
the advertisement platform is willing to assume. In some embodiments,
this threshold can be accounted for in a forecasting algorithm utilized
to project an available volume of ad impressions.

[0054] Having described various embodiments of techniques to project an
available volume of ad impressions for use in guaranteeing delivery of ad
impressions, consider now an example device that can be used to implement
one or more embodiments.

[0055] Example Device

[0056] FIG. 6 illustrates an example computing device 600 that can be used
to implement the various embodiments described above. Computing device
600 can be, for example, advertising server 104 of FIG. 1, or any other
suitable computing device.

[0057] Device 600 includes input device 602 that may include Internet
Protocol (IP) input devices as well as other input devices, such as a
keyboard. Device 600 further includes communication interface 604 that
can be implemented as any one or more of a wireless interface, any type
of network interface, and as any other type of communication interface. A
network interface provides a connection between device 600 and a
communication network by which other electronic and computing devices can
communicate data with device 600. A wireless interface can enable device
600 to operate as a mobile device for wireless communications.

[0058] Device 600 also includes one or more processors 606 (e.g., any of
microprocessors, controllers, and the like) which process various
computer-executable instructions to control the operation of device 600
and to communicate with other electronic devices. Device 600 can be
implemented with computer-readable media 608, such as one or more memory
components, examples of which include random access memory (RAM) and
non-volatile memory (e.g., any one or more of a read-only memory (ROM),
flash memory, EPROM, EEPROM, etc.). A disk storage device may be
implemented as any type of magnetic or optical storage device, such as a
hard disk drive, a recordable and/or rewriteable compact disc (CD), any
type of a digital versatile disc (DVD), and the like.

[0059] Computer-readable media 608 provides data storage to store content
and data 610, as well as device executable modules and any other types of
information and/or data related to operational aspects of device 600. One
such configuration of a computer-readable medium is signal bearing medium
and thus is configured to transmit the instructions (e.g., as a carrier
wave) to the hardware of the computing device, such as via the network
106. The computer-readable medium may also be configured as a
computer-readable storage medium and thus is not a signal bearing medium.
Examples of a computer-readable storage medium include a random access
memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), an optical disc, flash memory, hard
disk memory, and other memory devices that may use magnetic, optical, and
other techniques to store instructions and other data. The storage type
computer-readable media are explicitly defined herein to exclude
propagated data signals.

[0060] An operating system 612 can be maintained as a computer executable
module with the computer-readable media 608 and executed on at least one
or more processors 606. Device executable modules can also include an
advertisement platform 614 which can include a forecasting module 616 and
a bidding module 618 that, under the influence of at least one or more
processors 606, operate as described above and below. Advertisement
platform 614 can be, for example, advertisement platform 114 or
advertisement platform 200.

[0061] Device 600 also includes an audio and/or video input/output 620
that provides audio and/or video data to an audio rendering and/or
display system 622. The audio rendering and/or display system 622 can be
implemented as integrated component(s) of the example device 600, and can
include any components that process, display, and/or otherwise render
audio, video, and image data.

[0062] As before, the blocks may be representative of modules that are
configured to provide represented functionality. Further, any of the
functions described herein can be implemented using software, firmware
(e.g., fixed logic circuitry), manual processing, or a combination of
these implementations. The terms "module," "functionality," and "logic"
as used herein generally represent software, firmware, hardware, or a
combination thereof. In the case of a software implementation, the
module, functionality, or logic represents program code that performs
specified tasks when executed on a processor (e.g., CPU or CPUs). The
program code can be stored in one or more computer-readable storage
devices. The features of the techniques described above are
platform-independent, meaning that the techniques may be implemented on a
variety of commercial computing platforms having a variety of processors.

[0063] While various embodiments have been described above, it should be
understood that they have been presented by way of example, and not
limitation. It will be apparent to persons skilled in the relevant art(s)
that various changes in form and detail can be made therein without
departing from the scope of the present disclosure. Thus, embodiments
should not be limited by any of the above-described exemplary
embodiments, but should be defined only in accordance with the following
claims and their equivalents.