Networks dust off the drawing-boards

It's that time of year again when the networks bunker down to plot their strategies for the next TV season. They commission new shows, fine-tune the ones already on air and tweak their schedules in the hope of attracting more of the right sorts of viewers - and a larger slice of the $2.5 billion-a-year advertising cake.

The advertising market is buoyant. Some say spending by advertisers has increased by between 10 and 20 per cent since late last year. And each of the commercial networks wants a share.

As usual, they are keeping their plans close to their chests. In most cases, viewers will have to wait until 2004 to know what the network programmers have been cooking up. The secrecy is not surprising. If you give the opposition enough notice of your intentions, they might bring you undone. A few years ago, for example, Channel Seven proudly announced it had bought a hit concept from Britain called Ground Force. Before it could get its Australian clone to air, Channel Nine launched a similar program - Backyard Blitz - and the rest is ratings history.

Of course, some of their plans will leak out. And some things simply cannot be held back. For example, Ten's plans to counter Nine's rampaging hit The Block with a series called Under Construction had to be announced, simply because the network had to invite applications from potential contestants. Fourteen couples will compete for a million-dollar home. For a similar reason, Seven had to let the cat out of the bag about its new series in which aspiring chefs will compete to win a restaurant. Yes, a restaurant!

But it's the broader picture that will most interest the advertising industry in coming weeks as networks make their annual pitch for the commercial dollars. Advertisers want to know which people are in each network's sights. Most advertisers chase particular viewers - young viewers, grocery buyers, families with children, professionals without children and plenty of disposable income. Channel Ten, for example, already dominates the 16-to-39-year-old market and is making piles of money, so there is no reason for it to change direction. Nine comes first or second in every important demographic group and wins the overall ratings, and will suggest that advertisers stick with the strength.

Seven, however, has had a bad year and does not really dominate any segment of the market. But in 2004 it will refine its target audience. Seven will tell advertisers that it is targeting 25-to-54 year olds. That means taking some of Ten's older viewers and some of Nine's younger viewers. Its aim is not necessarily to beat Nine in the overall ratings - Nine's lead over its competitors is far too big in the east coast capitals for there to be any realistic hope that it can be challenged in the next year or two. For the time being, Seven is content to come second to Nine, but wants to close the gap on the market leader - and get more than a point or two ahead of Ten in third place.

Seven is not saying much about its plans. But it is known that the network has acquired a particularly strong line-up of premiere movies for 2004. Discussions are under way with the producers of Blue Heelers and All Saints, Seven's flagship local dramas, to change and refine their focus to attract more young adult viewers. The recently axed Always Greener will be replaced by a new local drama pitched squarely at under-50s. Seven's news and Today Tonight are likely to be revamped for 2004, and speculation continues that Jennifer Keyte might return to the Melbourne news desk on weeknights.

In the longer term, Seven seems certain to challenge Nine and Ten for the free-to-air rights to AFL football when the AFL TV rights are renegotiated in about 18 months. The public image of Seven, particularly in Melbourne, was aligned with its football tradition and when it lost the AFL rights at the end of 2001 Seven lost much of its public persona.

Seven will fight back. It will have learned from its mistakes this year - the disastrous Chat Room, the poorly scheduled and inconsistent Greeks on the Roof, the over-reliance on imported "reality" series. Ten has a few lessons to learn, too. Big Brother IV will require an overhaul if it is to be a ratings powerhouse ever again. It put one of its finest new imports - The Shield - up against The Footy Show and expected it to win. What a waste! It commissioned a show that was clever and arty and looked like something on the ABC - CrashBurn - and expected it to work among fans of Big Brother and Australian Idol. No way!

But Nine, while the clear winner in the ratings, has some hard decisions ahead of it, too. This Is Your Life is on its last legs and may be put down, or be reduced to an occasional "special" rather than a weekly series. Ray Martin's return to A Current Affair has achieved nothing and, in fact, Seven's Today Tonight has provided a much stronger challenge this year than ever before.

Sooner or later, Nine will have to make a decision about its 7pm weeknight timeslot. How many times can Frasier be repeated?