EIA estimates for USA in 2050: The Future is Fossil Fuels and Cheap Electricity

The EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2018 is out. The hard heads at the US Dept of Energy crunched the numbers, assumed technology will improve, and modeled the outcomes. According to their best estimates (and even their “worst” estimates) thirty years from now, the main energy source for the US is natural gas and fossil fuels. Renewables grows from 5% to 14%, but coal, nukes, hydro stays about the same. When the Australian Greens say “we don’t want to be left behind”, the answer is “Exactly! So explore for gas! Use Nukes!”

On the road, most people are still using gasoline cars, and here’s the kicker — electricity prices are still at about 11 cents per kilowatt hour. Weep all ye Australians, Brits, Germans and other who would be grateful if electricity only rose 10% a year, not 10% over 30 years.

Despite all of the hype, hope, cheerleading, fuel standards, portfolio standards, and taxpayer subsidies for renewable energies like wind and solar, America’s energy future will still rely primarily on fossil fuels to power our vehicles, heat and light our homes, and fuel the US economy.

EIA, 2018, Graph, Total energy use projections.

Electricity prices are dirt cheap and will stay that way:

EIA, 2018, Graph, Electricity Prices, projections.

Of the renewables, only solar PV is forecast to increase. Wind stays the same; Hydro stays the same; Geothermal is still tiny.

Big-solar does not even rate a mention.

Which renewables are growing?

The Big Picture

Renewables, a small non-essential part that isn’t going to change much.