Poll: If you erase WFP candidate, 18th CD is a tie (updated)

The state AFL-CIO has released a poll it commissioned on the race between Republican Rep. Nan Hayworth and Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney. This poll suggests a dead heat — which is very different from the results of a three-day-old Siena poll finding Maloney getting creamed by 13 points.

The poll, which was conducted by Public Policy Polling, has each candidate pulling 43 percent of the voters with 14 percent undecided.

This survey makes the rather large assumption that current Working Families Party candidate Larry Weissman, who drew 10 percent in the Siena poll, “will be replaced by Sean Patrick Maloney on the November ballot.” Indeed, one question is worded thusly: “The candidates for Congress are Republican and Conservative Party candidate Nan Hayworth and Democrat and Working Families Party candidate Sean Patrick Maloney.”

Update: As Sophie notes in the story linked below, Maloney will indeed receive the WFP line — the assumption I should have referred to is that he will manage to absorb the full 10 points that Weissman drew in the Siena survey.

Here’s the AFL-CIO’s statement accompanying the poll release:

Mario Cilento, President of the New York State AFL-CIO, said, “This poll confirms what we knew when we endorsed Sean Patrick Maloney for Congress – even without the powerful advantage of incumbency, Sean’s strong commitment to issues important to working families would resonate with Hudson Valley voters. The hardworking men and women of the 18th Congressional District want a representative that will fight to create good jobs and protect Medicare from right wing attacks, and Sean Patrick Maloney is far and away that candidate.”

… “These results are encouraging, but we still have work to do. With their efforts and support bolstered by this poll, our members will work until the final vote is cast to elect Sean Patrick Maloney to Congress,” said Cilento.