386
FXUS64 KMAF 241940
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
240 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will continue through tomorrow resulting in
continued much above normal temperatures. Dryline will surge east
from the eastern slopes of the mountains to the Concho Valley and
Big Country by late tomorrow afternoon. Behind the dryline breezy
westerly winds will develop in areas with very windy conditions
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains. Low level thermal ridging and
downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb to much above
normal Wednesday afternoon. Large upper leveltrough moving across
the mid section of the country will drop a cold front south into
the forecast area Wednesday night. Low level convergence along the
front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
in the deeper moisture. Strong surface pressure gradient behind
the front will produce very windy conditions with high winds
possible through Guadalupe Pass. Will issue a High WindWatch for
that location Wednesday night through mid Thursday morning. In
addition a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and or west Texas. Have also added patchy
blowing dust for areas mainly north of the Pecos River.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool
Thursday high temperatures will climb to above normal again
by Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope
flow and mostly clear skies expected.
A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected
at this time next Monday and Tuesday. Above normal temperatures
are also expected to continue.
FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably warm temperatures expected again Wednesday will result
in minimum rh values of 15 percent or less across SE NM and most of
W TX. Much of this area received beneficial rain the past week
lowering the fire danger... but not much fell across Eddy and
Culberson counties. The wind will be out of the west tomorrow
and 20ft wind speeds are expected to be higher with some locations
reaching the 15 to 20 mph range. This will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions... especially for the
Guadalupe Mountains... Delaware Mountains... and surrounding plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 83 49 83 42 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 86 56 86 43 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 83 46 83 44 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 90 54 88 50 / 0 0 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 86 54 85 44 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 71 50 74 39 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS NM 80 47 80 39 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 76 41 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 84 50 85 44 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 84 52 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 85 47 85 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WINDWATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
72/12
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