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POLITICO 44

In the should-he-stay-or-should-he-go drama now playing out in South Carolina over Gov. Mark Sanford, there is one group of people that is fervently, if quietly, hoping that he will stay.

Their motivation is not loyalty to their adulterous governor. It is dismay over what would happen if Sanford bows to pressure and steps down: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer would step up.

That would give Bauer – like Sanford, a Republican – an advantage in what was already shaping up as a brutally competitive GOP primary to replace the term-limited incumbent in 2010.

In effect, Sanford’s travails have caused that intra-party contest to start early. Associates of some Bauer rivals have begun a covert campaign of trash talking and not-for-attribution opposition research to make the case that the 40-year-old lieutenant governor would be a flawed candidate.

One South Carolina Republican is circulating an attack ad that was produced but never aired against Bauer in his hard-fought 2006 primary victory for the lieutenant governor nomination.

The intra-party machinations highlight a part of the Sanford soap opera that goes past the governor’s lust for forbidden flesh. The story has been marked from the start by political passions, rivalries and the taste for revenge among a large cast of tribal South Carolina pols.

It was Bauer — who has a poor relationship with Sanford — who doused gasoline on the already-smoldering story last week by publicly demanding to know where the missing governor had gone and (rightfully) accusing his staff of not knowing the whereabouts of the state's chief executive. These questions, along with the reporting of The State newspaper, eventually led to the discovery that Sanford had been in Buenos Aires with his Argentine lover.

But turnabout is fair play — nothing else would be expected by the standards of the Palmetto State’s sharp-elbowed politics — and now Bauer is the target.

"The political analysis has begun," said South Carolina GOP strategist Walter Whetsell, suggesting that the story was increasingly less about Sanford's sins than the would-be domino effect of his resignation. "It’s now: What does this mean for 2010?'"

To underline Bauer’s vulnerabilities and preview what he’d face next year, one top Republican source sent to POLITICO two unaired attack ads that were cut in his victorious 2006 GOP primary run-off for the lieutenant governor’s nomination.

The campaign of Mike Campbell, son of former South Carolina Gov. Carroll Campbell, recorded commercials designed to portray Bauer as “reckless and liberal,” as the announcer said in one.

On the reckless side, one of the ads is a cartoon rendition of Bauer driving in a car with the license tag “SC2” and eventually running into a palmetto tree — a light-hearted but aggressive effort to highlight the lieutenant governor’s checkered driving record, which includes being caught by state troopers going 101 miles per hour in his state-owned car in 2006.

The other ad alludes to Bauer’s MySpace page at one time having photographs of scantily-clad young woman — or, as the announcer in the commercial puts it, “adult photos too provocative for TV.”

It also suggests that Bauer was something short of fully opposed to abortion — a damaging charge in a primary that will likely be dominated by social conservatives.

Chris LaCivita, a GOP strategist advising Bauer, said that the lieutenant governor’s political rivals “are more interested in waging cheap political attacks than focusing on the people of South Carolina in a time of true crisis speaks volumes. And the fact that they are sending out ads that never aired demonstrates a pathetic level of desperation.”

This being South Carolina, though, the accusations go beyond policy to personal innuendo. In Bauer's case, that suggestion means that the would-be bachelor governor may also draw headlines over his romantic life.

LaCivita fired back to suggest that Bauer was nothing more than a red-blooded American male.

Alas, again, a stalwart of the Party of “Moral Majority” has fallen. How are the mighty fallen.” Maureen, as usual, you said it right—and with sharp contrast and wicked humor. It is teachable to note that although Democrats are not usually moralists, the Governor of New York (Splitzer) resigned after his affair was exposed. As a matter of principle, should we not expect Gov. Sanford in this instance to resign his high state office? Gov. Sanford disappeared many times in the past. Where was he and with who? Did he use stae money? In his latest five day disappearance, he recklessly endangered the state to assuage his personal passion. Then he lied about his where about. The media has an obligation to find out what else don’t we know, especially as this man wants to remain in his high office and may still harbor Presidential aspiration. I have one particular concern about Gov. Sanford as a public official: his total lack of compassion for the poor—compassion he now seeks for himself. He rejected federal stimulus money (forced to accept by the federal court) that would have been used to rebuild poor neighborhoods including schools that were falling apart. Finally, is Sanford’s fall from grace retributive (indeed poetic) justice? I feel sorry for this man’s wife and young children—what they must be going through now. Sanford, Gingrich, Palin, Cheney, Ensign, even McCain (remember how he treated his first wife and later dumped her for another) and more. These are all Republican leaders with a depraved moral compass; yet they want to continue to lead us, some even aspiring to be President. They wrap themselves with the flag, shout the Bible at us, and yet live and talk like very hateful ideologues. These leaders seem to use their moralizing and shouts of “patriotism” to cover up serious moral shortcomings. What a bunch of hypocrites!

Nothing quite so amusing as watching Republicans cannibalize each other. The most amazing part of the Sanford Debacle is the underlying SC political context. Brauer and Company knew all about Sanford's Argentine Squeeze and just needed to strategy to exploit it. Sanford gave it to them on a platter with his " Humpin' the Appalachians" story...He was humpin alright but it wasn't the Appalachians...

Gov. Sanford should have been keeping an eye on all the mice lower down the food chain, instead of playing in the fleshpots of Rio and Buenos Aires. Other leaders would have taken a tougher line with their associates.

Are there any Republicans who don't cheat on their wives, do drugs, or rape little kids while cheating on their wives and doing drugs?

Capitalism is sick, conservatism is sick, and the Republican Party needs to go. If the Dems don't do the job on their own, then hopefully the socialists or the Greens can step up as the second major U.S. political party.

"He’s an attractive, conservative Republican, single, straight—and he has a lots of attractive women that want to be his friend on his public Facebook and MySpace page," said LaCivita. "What’s their complaint? I’ll tell you—they're jealous."

The GOP was shocked duing the election when they lost North Carolina. They are gonna be flabbergasted when they lose South Carolina. South Carolinians are fed up with GOP corruption. First Thomas Ravenel and then another Low Country Plantation Playboy.