Stanford football: Grading the Week

Last year, the Cardinal needed overtime to beat Arizona on Oct. 6 and suffered a dramatic loss at Notre Dame on Oct. 13.

This year: Down-to-the-wire victory over Washington on Oct. 5 and dramatic loss at Utah on Oct. 12.

Last year, Stanford used the defeat in South Bend as fuel to run the table.

This year … ?

The month doesn’t get any easier with the Bruins and Beavers, then the Ducks in early November.

Combined record: 16-1.

Result: Lost at Utah 27-21

Grade: C-

Comment: When titles are at stake, every coaching decision gets scrutinized:

Should Stanford have run on third-and-two from the six? Should Ty Montgomery have been on the field? Why throw with no receivers and the jumbo personnel in the game?

Those aren’t unreasonable questions, even when the head coach in question has a career record of 28-5. (ESPN’s Mark May certainly had a strong opinion.)

But let’s not put this on the play calling in the final minute, folks.

The Utes outplayed Stanford by a wide margin from late in the first quarter to early in the fourth. They deserved to win.

* If you’re going to find fault with Stanford’s tactics, the focus should be on the first three quarters.

The Cardinal looked lost defensively in the first half. (Trent Murphy said the Utes’ perimeter game caught Stanford by surprise.)

Nor was Stanford able to produce much offense from the end of the opening drive until early in the fourth quarter. It couldn’t solve Utah’s pressure packages or generate a downfield game.

Yes, Stanford missed a chance to win in the final minutes. But it lost the game in the first 45: You cannot fall behind 27-14 on the road against a quality opponent and expect to win, especially in the Pac-12 this season.

* That said, this is a critical week for the Cardinal in the same way the post-Notre Dame week was critical last season, albeit for different reasons.

That week was about commitment – about 85 players not giving up on their collective goal despite two losses.

This week is about tactics.

Utah offensive coordinator Dennis Erickson used a tweaked version of Washington’s gameplan to accomplish the same result: Spread Stanford’s defense with sideline-to-sideline plays, then gash the Cardinal up the middle.

Said Erickson (per the Salt Lake Trib):

“We were trying to get space against those guys. They’re too hard to play in a phone booth. We felt we had to motion guys and move guys out of the backfield and throw that stuff out there to them and try to get some plays in space. Once we started doing that, we were able to run it.”

* The same copy-cat approach is taking place on the other side of the ball, where Utah defense coordinator Kalani Fifita Sitake borrowed from his counterpart at Washington, Justin Wilcox:

Jam the Cardinal running game, pressure quarterback Kevin Hogan and take your chances with single coverage in the secondary. If the pressure works, Hogan won’t have the time required for downfield routes to develop. (The mid-range passing game is limited because of inexperienced tight ends.)

You can bet your last dime that UCLA will follow a similar tact, all while unleashing LB Anthony Barr, the best defensive player in the conference.

David Shaw and Derek Mason: Your moves.

Next up: vs. UCLA

The matchup: A doozy.

Stanford thumped the Bruins in the ’12 regular-season finale. But my sense is the Pac-12 title game — a three-point Cardinal win — was far more indicative of what we’ll see this week.

The teams have completely different styles, but the overall difference in talent is small.

* The Bruins need tailback Jordan James (ankle) at full strength. He didn’t play in the victory over Cal and is questionable/doubtful this week.

Without him, the Bruins would be hard-pressed to generate the run-pass balance they need – the run-pass balance that allowed Washington and Utah to gain a combined 899 yards on the usually-stout Cardinal defense.

(Johnathan Franklin in the Pac-12 title game: 194 yards.)

* Bruins quarterback Brett Hundley is one of the league’s best, a future first-round pick who caused problems for Stanford with his arm and legs last year.

He was brilliant in the win at Nebraska, clutch in the escape at Utah and threw for a career-high 410 yards Saturday against Cal. But Hundley was not sharp in the red zone last week – that’s something to watch on Saturday.

* Stanford is 10-1 at home against ranked opponents in the past 4.5 seasons.

* The Cardinal opened as a 7-point favorite, but the line is dropping. Fast.

Jon Wilner

Post navigation

Mark May said that Stanford pretty much played to lose the game by going against their strength. They had two downs to get a first down with plenty of time on the clock, but eschewed that to make two low percentage throws into the end zone. This won’t be the last loss this season for Stanford, they’ll lose to UCLA and Oregon as well, this game was the tipping point for the program.

This was an 0-2 in conference play, Utah team, not a powerhouse… Stanford lost this game more than Utah won it.

3Crowns

Shaw has done a great job with the Stanford program and it’s not like I want him to go anywhere, but he and his staff are regularly outcoached and often make obvious strategic blunders. That’s two week in a row that the game came down to the final seconds against a team that was less talented but had a much better game plan.

Also, Jon, would love to hear anything you know about why Barry Sanders is not being used as RB. He’s the kind of talent that could change this offense for the better but for whatever reason Shaw just won’t use him. I’m guessing it’s because Shaw is incredibly conservative, and prefers the old, steady option in Gaffney to a much higher upside, but less certain player like Sanders. To me, this is clearly another strategic blunder. He should at least be getting some regular carries when it counts to give him experience.

Cardinal Rule

Coaching is a big part of the game, but it also takes execution by the players on both sides of the ball. Stanford didn’t execute on the field. The game is 60 minutes long. That’s long enough to insure it doesn’t come down to the last two plays.

Spider 2 Y banana doesn’t work everytime. Ask Andrew Luck.

OCBrewin

UTAH is a good team and Stanford didn’t adjust to the pressure UTAH brought. Same thing happened to UCLA at UTAH the week before. Sooner or later teams will game plan for UTAH’s pressure D’Fence. Give credit to UTAH.

TheCardinalRules

I blame this game squarely on the coaches – plural. The team didn’t play well, but despite that – and Utah playing its best game to date – Stanford was in a position to win the game at the end and was let down by the worst play call in Shaw’s tenure as HC.

If Stanford’s D wasn’t ready for Utah to hit the perimeter, then that’s Mason’s fault for having a poor gameplan. Granted he made adjustments at halftime and the Utes were pretty ineffective in the second half (6 pts, <150 yds), but the damage was done and not being ready simply because they hadn't done it before is not an excuse. Teams are going to pull rabbits out of the hat against Stanford and do things they haven't done previously this year.

But most of the blame goes to Shaw:
1. The bootleg call on 3rd & 2 was probably the dumbest call he has ever made. Only other call close to that was sitting on the ball at the end of the Fiesta Bowl when his OL was blowing Okie St off the line. In both cases Shaw went away from his bread & butter which is to line up the jumbo package and POUND THE ROCK. It worked against ASU because nobody had seen it yet, but he's now tried it against UW and Utah and defenses are ready for it. SO GO BACK TO SMASHMOUTH FOOTBALL FFS!

Shaw could have called 3 or 4 QB sneaks in a row and won the game!

2. Shaw's failure to acknowledge that he made a bad call there leads me to believe that he hasn't learned from this repeated mistake. So I'm concerned that we will see a repeat of it.

3. In his postgame comments, Shaw mistakenly said he didn't have timeout left on 3rd down. WRONG! Run on 3rd & 2. If you make it, you get a brief clock stop and have time to get a play in. If you don't, blow the last timeout and set up 4th down play. Instead, you have to blow the timeout after an incompletion because you couldn't get the play in on time.

Pyperkub

Utah played great, and matched up really well with Stanford. UCLA likely would have won going away without the Torian White injury, which looks like it might kill a promising season if Benenoch/Redmond can’t start opening holes. Utah definitely looks like #2 in the South currently, and should matchup well with USC in the Coliseum too.

stephen rollins

Respect the posts of what I have read below. Problem is, the solution was pointed out last wk by several commentators. The mid range passing game (Wilcox) challenge problem is solved by 4 wideouts, some of which do not just go long. This requires a progressive read by the QB. Can Hogan do this? Is the O line just good when tight ends are in? What happened to the conventional sweep?
“Moving side to side” (Erickson) is stopped by playing up on receivers, not ten yards off. Blitz pkg cannot hit QB late. Refs have a collective memory.
I think Coach Shaw was as puzzled as I have ever seen him at the presser. He may know a lot more than any of us regarding Mr. Hogan’s read capabilities. That may cause a little retooling (sub qb who can?) this wk.

3Crowns

Shaw didn’t acknowledge the Fiesta Bowl mistake of settling for a 40+ yard field goal from a young kicker with no confidence instead of at least running a couple of plays to try to get closer. So unfortunately your concern is quite valid, he does not seem to learn from or admit to obvious mistakes.

stephen rollins

Hogan looked very confused and slow on second, when Shaw had to call Time. Stanford should not have rolled to the short side. Why ? On Third Cajuste is wide open for a first down but Hogan throws late and behind 86 in the end zone. Perhaps he could not see.
Agreed on the run on third or 4th. But does that excuse the lack of pickup by the RB on the blitz up the middle? The primary job of 25 is to keep Hogan’s face clean. Hogan should, since he is a runner, be able to sense an outside blitz.
Does Smashmouth work when LBs are substituted for CB n Safeties? That is a question Washington answered with a resounding NYET. Bottom line – Stanford’s Offense from the coaches down is in disarray. Not just at one position.

murph0025

Gaffney was averaging 6.2 yards per carry… Given that, I wouldn’t say needing another RB (Sanders or someone else) is/was the issue…

Pyperkub

Utah has looked like a team that needed a breakthrough, and finally got it. That’s like characterizing UW as a 1-2 team, just because they happened to have Stanford/Oregon in Back to back weeks. Utah looks like they might be the 2nd best squad in the South, and UCLA has a tougher schedule down the road. Utah could easily end up ranked and in the Pac-12 Championship game.

stephen rollins

ah, ben tippin the squeezins a bit too much. Mark May is a big mouth, who knows as much about football as I do about the net. He is a token.

Jacques Beser

You are absolutely correct….You only forgot to mention last years Notre dame fiasco when genius Shaw tried to force a TD up the middle 2 or three times in a row against the strongest DL in football to make a point…..and lose the game. The guy just does not get…It is time for him to go… NOW

stephen rollins

Patently Absurd. Shaw is a good coach; He can learn and will. It remains to be seen how fast and how far.

Jacques Beser

The only thing absurd is allowing a coach to continue on spoiling a team’s season year after year: Fiesta bowl, Notre Dame, Utah…Is UCLA or Oregon next ??? I say show him the door …

stephen rollins

we can only hope.

206 Cardinal

While I agree that in-game tactics might not be Shaw’s biggest strength (and I posted on a different thread my frustration with the clock management and play calling on the final series), calling for Shaw’s head is pretty ludicrous.

Shaw seems good as CEO of Stanford football – creating and maintaining a culture that draws recruits and expects to win, hiring good coordinators and position coaches, etc. This ain’t a video game – there’s more to it than pressing the right button during the game

206 Cardinal

Get your point (UCLA might have struggled a little less with Utah’s pressure with White), but not so sure UCLA wins the game “going away” with one more player. UCLA had to win the turnover battle by 4 in order to squeak out a win. (Some of those turnovers were great plays by the defense, it’s true).

206 Cardinal

bingo.

Btw, apologies for my total misread of where you were coming from on earlier posts (I still think this year’s Oregon State team matches up poorly with us, but we need to stop putting obvious flaws on film or they could beat us – as could anyone else on the schedule besides Cal)

TheCardinalRules

That’s absurd. Shaw is still a very good coach. But he needs to admit to himself when he screws up and learn from it. That he repeated the same mistake concerns me because it tells me he doesn’t think he did anything wrong and that means he may do it again.

Pyperkub

I think (at least) 4 of the interceptions were tipped balls beyond the LOS, which is an indication of UCLA’s athleticism on defense (as well as a couple of throws that were slightly off target). UCLA’s defense (with the aid of the turnovers) did hold the Utes to 3 points after the 1st Quarter, and the playcalling in the 2nd half (all I could see, as I was flyingto the East Coast and then trying to find a sportsbar with FS1…) after White went down was absolutely Donohue-esque – I don’t think I saw anything but first down runs into the middle of the line for the entire half. Even the clinching TD was a run by Hundley. I think that the coaching staff really didn’t trust the pass-blocking, but I’m not sure if that was Utah’s rush or the Freshmen manning the right side of the line.

Pyperkub

As long as they spank USC, I’ll be happy

NorCal Tree

Have to give JW props for calling the trap game upset. Utah played well and deserved to win. I thought we were going to finish and have a nice wake up call/lesson without the loss. Shaw pulled a Harbs and went away from what got us to the 6 yd line. That being said, we should not have been in that position in the first place. The team didn’t bring their A game (nor did the Staff) and paid the price. That’s too bad as Skov, Gardner and others came back for the run. I hope they respond and bring it this weekend as you know UCLA will pull out all the stops to end our home win streak. Time to get back on BCS track.

stephen rollins

ah, you have yet to see all my numerous inconsistencies and flaws! I am the widget who agreed with JB over a month ago that Utah would beat Stanford, and then waffled at the last min. What a wooosss I can be.

hokieduck

I read these comments blaming Shaw and I just smh. Perhaps as a Duck fan, I should encourage such inanity, but, as a football fan, I simply cannot. David Shaw is an excellent football coach. Period.

Do we all make mistakes, yes. But for Pete’s sake, Wilner was correct calling this a trap game nestled between an absolutely brutal, physical game against UW and before a seminal game against UCLA then the Ducks. Dennis Erickson is a terrific offensive mand and he played this game perfectly. The Tree was beat-up from the Washington game, physically and emotionally. The kids had exams (not to go all Lou Holtz here), but at a school like Stanford, even the football team cares about academics. It was a perfect storm for the Cardinal.

They will get back on track for UCLA and my Ducks. They will end the season (hopefully) playing the Rose Bowl (since that would almost assuredly mean the Ducks play in Pasadena on Jan 6 instead).

casey_mullins

Getting Davis Dudchock in there instead of Luke K is going to make a difference. DD is the only pass catching tight end they have. The rest are tackles types or defensive ends.

Not as big an impact as last years QB change. But it will matter. I give Shaw minimal credit for finally seeing what was obvious from the get go. Actually from BEFORE the get go. Having a real option in the red zone is crucial. But TE were also 35 percent of the total passing game last year.

Play calling.

Five or six times a game Stanford is close to delay of game.

What is going on with the play calling? who is calling them? it’s clearly fubar. It HAS to improve. Confusion? at Stanford University?

Bootlegger

I think that Shaw over thinks sometimes, but otherwise he is a very good coach. I definitely would have run on one or both of those last plays.
I was surprised that the perimeter plays were so effective; Stanford has done a pretty good job of stopping those during the rest of the seasons. What was really surprising were the runs up the middle. That should not be happening.

el Palo

Thanks for the nice sentiments about the Cardinal, but what’s the scenario where Stanford plays in the Rose Bowl and the Ducks go onto the NCG. You have to be PAC-12 champ to play in the Rose. I presume you think that would be UO because the Ducks would not be in the running for the NCG or PAC-12 championship if they lost on Nov. 7. So then Stanford would have 2 conference losses. Seems to me that the Rose Bowl selection committee would be go with the South champion.

hokieduck

If Oregon goes to the NCG, then obviously they won the Pac12. The rules state that if the Pac12 winner goes to the NCG then the Rose Bowl selects another team which one would think would be the next best PAC12 squad (although I think they can select at large… not sure about that).

hokieduck

If Stanford beats UCLA and the Ducks beat UCLA then the south winner (probably the Bruins) would both have two losses.