"Family flight" out of San Francisco is nothing new. But now, real estate prices in the city have risen so steeply – much more so than in the East Bay – that there’s an extra incentive for longtime San Francisco homeowners to cash out their equity and head across the bay seeking more house for less money.

After 20 years in San Francisco, John Perryand Rob Picciotto, along with their children, Ben and Louisa, and three dogs, transplanted themselves to Oakland. "I didn’t think we would ever leave San Francisco, but a convergence of things made us consider moving," said Perry.

In 1998, Perry and Picciotto had stretched to buy their Bernal Heights house and make it work as their family grew. In June it sold for more than triple what they’d paid, a windfall that allowed them to pay cash for a less expensive house in Oakland’s Leona Heights neighborhood in the hills above Mills College.

"We don’t have a mortgage anymore, which is awesome," Perry said. "We doubled our square footage on more than an acre of land, and have phenomenal neighbors. Oakland is so diverse; it’s a whole new world to learn and explore. There’s more space, more mix."

We’ve pointed out many times in the past that the East Bay was not part of the Real Bay Area because it hasn’t benefitted from the same batshit insane price increases found in places West of the Bay. Outmigration serves as a release valve on the price hikes. When SF gets too expensive compared to Oakland or Walnut Creek (two places mentioned as where SF sellers moved to), people will move East because they get more house for the money.

Three things of note from this article:

Moving from SF to Silicon Valley will NOT gain you a damned thing. The prices have gone up just as much in Googleville. These bargains are only to be found in the Nickle and Dime or Nine and a Quarter area codes.

San Francisco has fewer residents under 18, by percentage, than any other major city. This really still remains as a Family Flight From ‘Frisco story. The only difference is more people moving to Montclair instead of Marin.

This is also your Weekend Open Thread. Are you considering moving further afield because trading up where you already live is too expensive?

June 13, 2013

People often ask us, “Why do you keep saying this is another bubble? All the real estate experts out there keep assuring us it isn’t.”

Puh-leeze, people! Do you really expect those so-called experts to understand the difference between national averages and Real Estate Where It’s Special? Of course not! Those silly “experts” think this isn’t a bubble because prices haven’t hit their pre-crash peaks. Except if you followed real estate in the Real Bay Area you’d know that they have and they do, every day. So let’s look at yet another “point of light” illuminating the real estate bubble that we damned well know is blowing up a little bigger every day in the RBA, Where It’s Special.

And even where it isn’t. Because today we’re looking at overbidding in Oakland. Thanks very much to Burbed reader Bob in Oakland for the find.

This home may be large and beautiful, but the agent thoughtfully kept things simple by not including any photos other than the one you see right here. Now if that isn’t proof of a real estate bubble, we don’t know what to tell you. This house is telling you, you want an almost 5,000 square foot house? Well you can bloody well submit your overbid and hope you get to see the inside, then!

Did we say overbid? More like over-overbid, because last week the price got cranked up from $550k to $840k despite There’s No Bubble Here.

And if you’re wondering how the heck there’s almost 5,000 sf of house in this modest façade, have a look at the satellite photo. Looks like the builder went deep. Real deep. Also there’s another floor under the driveway, which means you’d best check the drainage.

June 9, 2013

Yes, another danged list! This time San Jose is #8 on the Least Affordable Housing Market list created by Trulia. Not only that, Oakland and San Francisco are ranked even better! Let’s have a look, and also at this article that referenced the Trulia list.

Thanks very much to Burbed reader Petsmart Groomer for sending in the second article.

Affordability is measured as a mortgage payment at 3.8%, 30 year fixed, on an 1800 sf home at median price per sf divided by local average monthly wage for a worker.

Not only that, Oakland and San Jose metros are the 1-2 punch of year over year housing price increases, greater than every other Top 100 metro that Trulia examined. San Francisco is also showing frightening gains at 19.6%, right behind Orange County.

But remember, 8s are very, very lucky. Tell us how you feel about so many California cities on the Least Affordable List? Are you going to keep renting or are you determined to get out there and overbid?

The Wall Street Cheat Sheet piece conveniently left our old nemesis Manhattan and environs off its list by completely ignoring it. After all, if you can’t increase housing prices by double digits, what the heck are you doing calling yourself unaffordable?

Now, what are we going to do about Honolulu? We’d better get those median housing prices up past a million in at least 15 more cities by next week!

June 4, 2013

We keep hearing from supposed real estate experts who want to assure would-be buyers that This Time It’s Different and There’s No Bubble Here. And we’ll be here to keep reminding everyone that in the Bay Area, Where It’s Special, There Most Certainly Is A Real Estate Bubble. There’s been one before and there’s one again right now. Today we have yet another in our continuing Exhibitions of Proof Beyond Ultimate Proof. Thanks very much to Burbed Reader Bob in Oakland for sending in this luscious listing!

Very charming craftsman bungalow with abundant period details. Just blocks from Peet’s, Trader Joes, Farmers Market, Arizmendi and the Transbay bus. Large terraced back yard ready for your creative touches.

Let’s listen in as Bob talks to himself, because nobody in their right mind would leave the Real Bay Area to visit Oakland.

This one just sold for more than at the peak of the last bubble: $720,000 this year, vs $677,000 in 2006.

The underwater seller sold it last year (3/23/12) for $465k.

Without any work having been done (at least, there was none mentioned in the listing), it listed on April 18 this year for $569k.

Redfin associate says ‘interior shows well, but could use some updates, especially the kitchen. Floors are a bit wonk.’

Went pending 11 days later, and sold for $720k. Whoever sold it last year got taken, big time.

No bubble here folks. Just move along. Nothing to see.

It’s a decent part of Oakland, but a reasonably busy street…

Although at these prices it looks like the Real Bay Area is visiting after all. And why not? This house is much closer to the Trestle Glen and Lakeshore neighborhoods than Crocker Highlands, but if it can go for 27% above asking in 11 days, why not choose a community 27% more impressive as well?

They’re on their way with the 27% busier street, now with more yellow on the map! Let’s see what your creative touches can do with that.

May 9, 2013

Let’s continue looking at some homes untouched by Bay Area Bubble 4.0 fever! Thanks very much to Burbed reader dollarbin for this fantastic find: over 200 days on the market and wait until you see the price history! Amazing!

Come and see this custom built Eichler in Oakland. You will own the house that everyone talks about. This house is an architectural masterpiece and the additional master bed and bath make it incredible. This is the only Eichler in this part of Oakland. Open House April 6th, 10 AM- 12PM.

Here’s what dollarbin thought of the place:

I’ve been sitting on this one for quite some time and it’s finally pending but as a short sale, I bet it will have a long luxurious escrow. Check out the listing price history, more ups and downs than a whack-a-mole game. Bring on the Eichler lovers!

There’s so much to salute about this property, it’s hard to figure out where to start the rollout. How about we take a look at all the attractive price points it has offered in search of the One True Buyer.

No wonder it’s selling shortly! Don’t miss the Open House, either! Um, whoops. Hey, this is the only Eichler in this part of Oakland!

April 17, 2013

We’ll keep today’s Opening On the Outside, Only the Opposite. Yes, it’s O day in the Blogging from A to Z Challenge, which means we Only do the letters in the Official Order. On this day we Open Our ears, eyes and Other Orifices in the direction of Oakland. And we’ll keep this One sweet, as it’s selling shortly.

Or rather, it’s Opening On an Oversized Optimization for the Ordained Owner.

March 23, 2013

Want to look at Open Houses but inventory is too low? Here’s yet another reason why Bay Area Bubble 4.0 is in full swing for Spring: Flash sales. Redfin coined this term for a house that’s in contract within 24 hours of being listed.

They also made a list of how many flash sales there have been in the last five months in each of the markets they cover, and San Jose came in 15th out of 15 with 74 quickies. San Francisco didn’t even make the cut at all! All-time flash sales champion? Phoenix, with 540.

This Skyline Circle home in Oakland was a Flash Sale and is featured on the Redfin Blog. It sold quick, and for list price. This is how we know Oakland, even in the hills, is not the Real Bay Area. Everyone knows Real Bay Area homes sell way over asking. Also RBA homes don’t fester on the market for a year and a half until the Bubble finally blows up again. The HOA dues are just the sickly sweet icing on the Not RBA cake.

“This house never even hit the market! We had a brokers’ tour in the afternoon on the very same day the house was to hit the market. A broker came in with his buyers who offered all-cash at full list price and with the quick closing we had requested, making it an easy choice for my clients to accept their offer that same day.” - Lynda DiVito, San Francisco Bay Area Redfin Agent

Planning on visiting any Open Houses today? Let us know of any suitcases full of cash changing hands you see. This is also your Weekend Open Thread, so sky’s the limit!

March 22, 2013

Who’s priced out forever, and getting more priced out by the minute in Bay Area Bubble 4.0? Not you! Not when you check out this completely affordable home in Oakmmphf CLOSE TO SAN FRANCISCO. Heck, you could pick up this sweet little lodging on your way home from the grocery store. Well, you could if there were a grocery store anywhere near it.

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