Economic Beat

Count on Growth of 3.5%

Better outooks for jobs, shopping and housing are all keeping the economy on track. Lower oil prices help, too.

Here are four good reasons why real growth in gross domestic product is probably running at an annual rate of 3.5%, and why economic growth should persist at about 3.5% through 2015.

This 3.5% forecast is about half a percentage point higher than the "central tendency" forecast released on Wednesday by the Federal Open Market Committee. It's also about in line with the optimistic consensus (the average of the highest 10...