第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 ブラジルのスマートグリッド：概要

第3章 スマートグリッド市場予測

第1巻からの変更点

導入開始日・ペース

コスト推計

代替シナリオ

第4章 詳細なスマートグリッド市場予測・技術展望

AMI

広域計測

配電自動化

ホームエネルギー管理

第5章 ユーティリティ企業

AES

lberdrola

PFL

Light

Cemig

Endesa

Copel

Rede Energia

EDP

Eletrobras

Celesc

Cemar

第6章 ベンダー活動

国内ベンダー

国際ベンダー

第7章 結論

第8章 付録

図表

目次

Northeast Group has published the second volume of its Brazil Smart Grid:
Market Forecast (2012-2022) following the recent changes to Brazil's
smart metering regulatory framework announced in August 2012. In particular,
this volume updates the smart metering (AMI) and home energy management (HEM)
market forecasts, analysis of the country's regulatory framework, and
information on the role and prospects of leading vendors given a wave of
recent merger and acquisition activity.

Figure 3.2: Combined smart grid forecast

Source: Northeast Group

Brazil is already one of the leading emerging market countries in terms of
smart grid development. With the fifth largest population in the world and a
government that is eager to modernize the country's infrastructure, Brazil
will become one of the largest smart grid markets in the world by the end of
the decade.

Figure 2.14: Payback on AMI meter from loss
reduction in average Brazilian home

Source: Northeast Group

Brazil's smart grid development is the Product of strong underlying market
conditions government action. Like many emerging market countries, Brazil has
high rates of and positive non-technical distribution losses, implying that
utilities will reap immediate revenue protection benefits through smart meter
deployments.

Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential

Source: Northeast Group

Brazil also has a rapidly growing economy, which is beginning to strain
existing infrastructure. As the country continues to grow, the reliability and
energy savings benefits of smart grid will become increasingly important.

The Brazilian government has taken notice and in 2009 it set a non-binding
target of replacing all 63 million existing electromechanical meters with
smart meters by 2021. However, in August 2012, the government announced an
“ opt-in” smart meter regulation for existing customers, paired
with a mandate requiring smart meters for all new customers. This was not the
anticipated market catalyst for those expecting a binding mandate to replace
all 63 million existing legacy meters with smart meters. As a result,
Northeast Group is currently forecasting that Brazil will not reach its
initial 63 million smart meter target. Yet, some government officials and
regulators are still optimistic that the initial goal can be achieved, which
may inspire future incentive structures and more favorable smart metering
regulations.

Smart grid development at Brazilian utilities

Source: Northeast Group

With strong underlying economic and political conditions, it is inevitable
that Brazil's smart grid market will grow significantly in the coming decade.
The question is simply how fast deployments will take place. Through a
combination of new meter installations, smart meters targeted at reducing
non-technical losses, and customers eager to take advantage of advanced smart
grid applications, more than half of Brazilian homes will have smart meters by
the end of the decade. However, the August 2012 regulations fell short of the
concrete mandate needed for Brazil to meet it's original goal of 63 million
meters by 2021. Nonetheless, Brazil remains a very significant smart grid
market for both vendors and customers alike.

Key questions answered in this report:

How will new regulations affect near-term smart meter deployments ?

How large will the smart grid market - including 14 segments - become over
the next decade ?

Which international vendors are already active in Brazil, which have won
recent contracts and which have been engaged in M&A activity?

Which domestic vendors are poised to partner with international firms to
exploit the growing smart grid market?

How will Brazilian utilities build their smart meter business cases ?

Which utilities have already developed pilot projects and which
technologies are they using ?

Where in Brazil are distribution automation and home energy management
already advanced ?