Whether Newt Gingrichs political team realized it or not, they escaped sudden death with Mitt Romneys wins in Arizona and Michigan. While the Gingrich team spoke of the need to see Mitt Romney lose his home state the reality of Rick Santorum going down after his campaign and the PAC supporting him spent a fortune in Michigan is stark. The bloom is now officially off the Santorum rose.

Enter Gingrich, who has (to use a Newt phrase) frankly been out of money and unable to compete or even defend himself in states where he could have been or is competitive. The pro-Gingrich PAC has suddenly received a major cash infusion from its greatest proponent just in time to save the former Speaker of the House from endless negative Romney associated ads in Gingrichs home state of Georgia. In addition, the Gingrich forces now have ads up in numerous states where they believe their man can accumulate delegates

The Gingrich PACs Georgia ad is of mediocre quality, but drives the central issue of questioning Romneys true conservative bona fides. It will likely be enough to give Newt Gingrich a win in the Peach State, allowing him some (if not scant) time to aim at a few other states. With Santorums drop Gingrich could become a last minute substitute for the anyone but Mitt vote in Tennessee and Oklahoma. With so little time left, Ohio becomes problematic for Gingrich. But Alaska and several other states could yield delegates to Newt.

On the other hand, Mitt Romneys camp will now be able to argue that a protracted nomination process is hurting the GOP and chances of defeating President Obama. Hillary Clinton heard the same from Obama supporters on 2008a fact often forgotten four years later.

What Gingrich, Santorum, and Ron Paul must now hope for is a shredding apart of proportional delegates until the big prize of Texas comes up for grabs. Ironically, under GOP national rules, Romneys wins in Florida and Arizona (both winner take all states) can be challenged at the convention in Tampa. But Texas, which was to be a proportional state, may become a winner take all contest given uncertainty over redistricting and the possibility that the state might have to move the date of its primary backfar enough to allow it to become a truly sanctioned winner take all state.

Gingrich is likely hoping to collect just enough delegates to stay alive until Texas when he (and his supporter Governor Rick Perry) can deliver a huge number of delegates. Like Gingrich, Rick Santorum will likely continue on collecting delegates as he can. And of course, Ron Paul will be in the contest until the end.

Next Tuesdays Super vote is right around the corner. Mitt Romney has the momentum, if not the heart of his party, on his side. For Gingrich this is an opportunity to become relevant and perhaps even significant in the battle for the nomination. If that should occur, the convention will likely have no individual with the necessary votes needed to win the nomination. But if Gingrich fails to become relevant in the next week, then Santorum will melt and Romney will have punched his ticket to the final dance (a little March Madness language for our NCAA basketball fans!).

Simple reality as I see it; Newt or Romney either one could win, but I don’t see how Santorum could. The choice has to be between Gingrich and Romney. I’d be perfectly happy to have any of them in the whitehouse, but the nation would not survive another four years of Obama/Saetoro.

LOL. From nobody to nearly winning Mitt's home state, in spite of being outspent 5 to 1, and taking home nearly as many delegates.

Because there's no danger of Willard running away with the nomination it won't hurt if both Santorum & Gingrich stay in the race for the near future, but at some point the third place guy is gonna have to decide whether he wants to be the guy that enabled Willard.

Agreed. We can’t afford 4 more years of the Kenyan Muslim. I would be happy with President Romney, Gingrich, Santorum or Paul. Some might make me happier than others, but any one of those four would be better than Obama. The circular firing squad has to stop and we need to unite behind a nominee, defeat Obama, take the Senate, and retain the House. We can’t do it as a house divided. That would be exactly what the statists want.

Id be perfectly happy to have any of them in the whitehouse, but the nation would not survive another four years of Obama/Saetoro.

I agree. I'd rather see a Romney/Gingrich ticket than another four of obama. You are right - we will not survive another four of obama in a nothing-to-lose second term. He will run rougohshod over the constitution. For the sake of our children and grandchildren, we cannot allow that.

7
posted on 02/29/2012 6:54:54 AM PST
by jersey117
(The Stepford Media should be sued for malpractice)

And, right now, it is pretty clear who the third place guy is. And pretty clear where he is pegging his hopes: a convincing win in his home state of Georgia, where he has never won a statewide race, and a come from behind win in his neighboring state of Tennessee.

At some point, Newt is going to have to win a state outside of the south to convince us he is still viable. That may not be the way we want it, but that's the fact.

19
posted on 02/29/2012 7:36:23 AM PST
by Vigilanteman
(Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)

Santorum is solid conservative but untested, favored by democrats, helped by cross-voting, strongly favored by strong conservatives, will be around to the end, probably by 32% votes and delegate count.

Romney is fierce combatant, questionable conservative background,favored by moderate wing and independent, promoted by political leaders,so he will be on top, not by much, to the end, maybe 35% votes and delegates.

Newt is intellectual, intelligent, most capable leader, severed flawed with the adultery past, most feared by mainstream media, Obama, and liberals,neutral with independent, less favored by strong conservative,most capable beating Obama in general election, maybe gathering around 20% vote and delegates at the convention time.

Ron Paul is not a factor, probably with final 10% vote and delegates.

At the brokered convention, Newt will be nominated because he is the most well-liked guy by all other candidates, our last hope who can beat Obama, and because Santorum and Romney mutually destroy each other.

I feel good about our chance to remove Obama before we lose our country for good.

First off, I want to say congrats to Senator Santorum. That was a heck of a result in the face of attack ads and the MSM trying to set the agenda. (does the S stand for Stream or Slime? Can never remember!) To me, that close a result in a supposed “locked” state is a huge win.

My tag line is as it is simply because the two of them together would be unbeatable. Speaker Gingrich has the plans, the ideas, the policies and the experience to be probably the most amazing President America has has in a century - and I am not disrespecting President Reagan by saying that. Times are different now. President Reagan had a clear enemy to point to. He took them down hard. We don’t have that now.

Senator Santorum has the social conservative issues locked tight. He does not just preach them (to borrow a newish MSM meme) - he LIVES them. Gotta respect that, though it is going to make independants as uncomfortable as Speaker Gingrich’s “baggage” makes the social conservatives, even here on FR.

My personal preferences are on record - my posting history is an open book (except for a few that got pulled for profanity - that being a particular problem of mine!).

Speaker Gingrich has the vision, the plan, and, to be blunt from a foreign perspective, the ability to get on with the allies of the USA. Though my initial preferences were Governors Palin and Perry in either order, the Speaker has grown on me.

I follow the ping list for Senator Santorum too. I respect him. Admire him in a lot of ways. As one very strong supporter says frequently on his threads (sorry mate, your name escapes me a moment, but you know who you are!), you don’t stay senator for 10 years in a blue state and keep a good conservative rating without both courage and conviction.

You know - this time the USA needs BOTH of the conservative candidates in the race. Not either / or. And if I can see that from 3000 miles away, why can’t they?

Practically speaking, I would like Speaker Gingrich as president for three reasons. He has a firm plan. Knows exactly where the bodies are buried (as a Newt supporter says on here, he knows ‘cause he buried them) And he can communicate.

He is also getting older, and the damage is going to take a lot of time to roll back. Sen. Santorum is young enough to run a term or two as VP then take over. Govs. Palin and Perry likewise - and those are two people I would love to see in government.

Why am I, someone who does not live in the same country or have any alliegence to it beyond the ties of affection to individual people getting so worked up here?

I live right now in a country you will live in within 3 years. I have children and grandchildren. I want them to be able to point to the one country on earth that - in spite of the ridiculously stacked odds against it - worked as a country of free, individual yet united citizens. Move there if they wish to.

I think he would have won in Michigan if he had done a better job of defending himself in the last debate. His atrocious inability to fend off the two pronged attack of Paul/Romney was sort of what happened to Newt right after South Carolina.

Not defending well against the Romney/Paul machine in a debate makes it much easier to believe the negative attack ads.

Newt is far and away the best and brightest of the crowd. A debate between Newt and Obama would be a joke, there would be an obvious difference of something like 100 IQ points, sort of like a prize fight between Joe Louis and Little WeeWee Jones.

Not me because Romney WILL NOT repeal Obamacare. He's saying that he will now to get elected but in the general he will cater to the Dems & Indies who want national healthcare. This country will fail with Obamacare.

One of our non-Romney guys needs to find all the promises Mitt made for Governor and how many actually got done.

Bump for an awesome post! I think you have a great perspective from England to see what a lot here can’t see! What an unbeatable combination that would be.

Let’s all pray that God hears us and sends these great conservative fighters who will LEAD, not just play politics!

I believe if Newt and Rick would team up together, and soon, they could take Romney down very quickly.

I also believe the two together could have an amazing cultural influence on our country, not just politically but bringing back an affection and respect for all around cultural conservatism, dignity and goodness.

If they would or could team up, Gov. Romney would fold like a cheap table.

One thing I have noticed - I watch debates and speeches which kind FReepers (thank you CW, TitansAFC, onyx, hoosiermama and several others!) post links to twice - once with the sound on then again on mute to concentrate solely on body language - is that the Speaker and Senator Santorum have no dislike for each other. They could work together easily.

Should work together.

But of course, there is the big problem. Who leads? In all honesty, I could accept either way around and would work my heart out for that ticket. There are many good people here who work for their candidate hard - not just posting articles of interest, but defending, explaining and fighting hard for who they think is right. That is as it should be.

My preference is the guy with the detailed plans, who has the serious talent at his back, not just endorsing him, but actively working on and writing policy. There are people I respect on here who want the guy who completely lives social conservatism, and they have good points. The Rust Belt isn’t the South. Staying a good conservative in a Rust Belt state is hard. An 88% rating is amazingly good.
Give him a solid Congress and Senate and watch him soar. Because Sen. Santorum is right. A moral life is important. More important for the one person who is selected as the face of the USA to the world. I could get behind the Senator, simply because what he says, he means. The Speaker, I will get behind with pleasure - he says what you have not even thought of yet.

One simple thing I want to see either Speaker Gingrich or Sen. Santorum do is get out from behind the lectern. Neither of them need it for notes and it sends a clear and powerful message - “Here I am. I want to be your president and there is nothing in the way between you and me.”

Been doing some calls for Newt - I can’t contribute to his campaign in any other way (not legally or ethically, at least), though I do send an email every few days or so with suggestions to his campaign team.
My average call time sucks since folk get an English accent on the phone and they want to talk a lot! I get passed from person to person in the house so they can hear my “cute” accent before we can get down to brass tacks. Still great fun though and it beats watching TV!

It gives me a headache to try to follow this convoluted line of reasoning.

7% is good?

This is how it works. Santo's record has been exposed over the last 2 weeks. Since his 3 state wins, he got a free ride from the press and the money attack machine known as Myth smear machine. Month after month, it was Santorum who was getting 7% of the vote. He is now seen as a loser to Romney among many conservative voters who have a heard mentality.

Yes that's right, as many as 15 to 20% of voters who vote conservative will likely stampede to who they think can beat Romney the moderate. Voter perceptions reigns supreme, and it does not always follow what you may think as logical. Newt being a southern favorite among the candidates, will further magnify this phenomena. Gingrich who has been on top twice is about to get a third look by the Conservative heard.

This is a very fickle Republican electorate. Most Santorum voters were originally Bachmann, Perry, Cain, or Gingrich supporters. If Santorum, who is being mercilessly attacked in both the press and in Romney’s ads, is perceived as slipping, those voters may again go to Gingrich.

I think this race is far from over. We are just over 12% into the race by delegate count. It takes 1,144 delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. Most of the primaries and caucuses allocate delegates via a proportional method.

Note in the exit poll that the areas where there were significant differences in demographics that most of the drop in Santorum support went to Paul. He may not be collecting a lot but he is definitely an influence in the race.

Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.