LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWDOWN SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDE NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTICCOAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWNFROM SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING COLD AIR. THIS SETUP BRINGS AMAJOR SNOWSTORM TO THE AREA.

* A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVIER LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IN THE WARNED AREA. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED. DOWNED TREES OR TREE LIMBS ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR.

* STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.

I am certainly not one to second guess our NWS mets and I wouldn't on this one. All indications are that areas of W NC, VA, etc. especially at higher elevations will get a major dump of snow that could easily cause the types of problems they are mentioning. Best advice is to check the weather in your area an a frequent basis to monitor the situation as it pertains to your area. If you do not have at least slightly above normal supplies in house yet I would get them now if you are in the affected area. Above all be safe.

Unfortunately I won't be flying into NYC until Christmas Eve. I was hoping for a White XMAS, but todays flip has a wet XMAS for the NYC area. Yesterday they said Miller B for XMAS. Things could change again though

I have lots of family in the Cherry Hill, NJ area. I asked them to send me some snow down to Texas.

_________________About my avatar pic. If you live around DFW, and have HDTV over the antenna you should get a Ch. 8-2. Anyhow, one day when I was flipping channels I saw that in the top right of the corner of the screen on Ch 8-2. So yes it's a forecast for (DFW) Texas, not a real one, but one that was on TV at one point.

It has been coming down pretty good the last couple of hours. Started as a mixture of everything. Now it's just huge fluffy snowflakes and already starting to accumulate. I might just have to get my camera out later this afternoon or tomorrow morning and post some pictures.

Also, I noticed that Blizzard Watches are hoisted for Long Island for those near the NY and Southern New England areas. An interesting thing we see sometimes with Tropical systems will be introduced into the data set with the 18Z runs today...

REQUEST FOR 18Z RAOBS...SDM AND HPC HAVE COORDINATED NEEDS FOR 18Z RAOBS IN SUPPORT OF THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT IS ABOUT TOADVERSELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN REGION FROM THEFOLLOWING IF POSSIBLE...BMX...CHS...FFC...GSO...ILN...ILX...JAN...LZK...LWX...MHX...OHX...OKX...PBZ...RNK...SGF...WAL. LWX HAS ALREADY COORDINATED AN 18Z RAOB.ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE SHORT NOTICE TO AUTHORIZESTAFFING TO COVER THE EXTRA DUTY...SDM AND HPC WOULD APPRECIATE WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THESE WFO/S WOULDBE ABLE TO LAUNCH AN 18Z RAOB TODAY. PLEASE CALL THESDM WITH THE STATUS OF YOUR WFO. THANKS.$STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP

_________________Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike

Had a friend headed for Pikeville Ky tomorrow, she just changed her mind and decdied to stay home at home in Lexington ky.

For Pikeville and areas surrounding it...

"ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS."

Glad to see her stay home.

That's IF the storm track doesn't vary any....welcome to winter...Merry Christmas to all here on S2K btw.

Had a friend headed for Pikeville Ky tomorrow, she just changed her mind and decdied to stay home at home in Lexington ky.

For Pikeville and areas surrounding it...

"ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS."

Glad to see her stay home.

That's IF the storm track doesn't vary any....welcome to winter...Merry Christmas to all here on S2K btw.

My parents live to the east of Stanton, just got off the phone with them and they're saying it is definitely changing over to snow there, great, big, slushy flakes are falling, with some rain still falling. They are on the extreme western edge of the WS Warning, with 3 to 6 inches of snow expected. This is from a Special Weather Statement:

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN5:15 PM AND 7 PM. REPORTS OF TWO AND HALF INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROMTHIS BAND HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED FROM PINEVILLE AND MIDDLESBORO.SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THISBAND MOVES NORTH. AREAS NORTH A LINE FROM MCKEE TO JACKSON TO WAYLANDTO PIKEVILLE SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOW THROUGH 7 PM. INSPITE OF THEWARM GROUND...THE SNOW WILL FALL FAST ENOUGH AT SOME LOCATIONS FORONE TO TWO INCHES TO ACCUMULATE.

My grandmother lives in central Virginia, and they are expecting almost two foot of snow!

Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 28. East wind 6 to 9 mph increasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. North wind between 11 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Add the minimum totals and you get 17 inches (the current snow totals predicted has 18.0 over her), and the maximum totals come out to 25 inches.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WARNING AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ASA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITEDSTATES COAST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAYMORNING...FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OFSNOW ARE EXPECTED...RANGING FROM 12 TO 20 INCHES FROM FRIDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.... WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALSOCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...ORAPPROXIMATELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TOBOWLING GREEN."

My daughter, Ms. I Hate Cold Weather, is in Shrewsbury, NJ. She and her boyfriend are supposed to go into NYC tomorrow. They have tickets to Cirque de Soleil and he was going to take her to see the Christmas tree at Rockefeller Center and possibly go ice skating.

Shrewsbury forecast:

Winter Storm Warning along with:

Saturday: Snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. Windy, with a north wind between 18 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Windy, with a north wind between 23 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a north wind between 17 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

New York City forecast:

Winter Storm Warning along with

Saturday: Snow, mainly after 3pm. High near 30. Northeast wind between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Snow. Low around 24. Blustery, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Overnight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 27. North wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Breezy, with a north wind between 11 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Snow showers, mainly before 7pm. Low around 23. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

I actually have a really funny story. I went to elementary school up in Va (used to live beside my grandmother's house), and had a friend that lived down the road a little ways. I ended up losing contact with her back in 2001, when my family moved. I had searched for years on facebook and myspace for her, but never had any luck. I found her last night, she graduated high school last year and is currently attending college. Her folks still live right down the road from my grandma apparently, and she is home on Christmas Break! So I'll be getting some pictures from central Va with the snow, and if allowed, will post them here.

I got another friend up in Maryland, and might steal some of her photos as well, once she posts them to facebook.