Yemen is sparking a growing regional war

A supporter of Yemen's former President Ali Abdullah Saleh chants slogans after the weekly Friday prayers in front of the Al-Saleh mosque in Sanaa June 20, 2014.
Reuters
BEIRUT - Tensions in the already volatile Middle East ratcheted up as Saudi Arabia backed by regional allies launched a military campaign against Yemen's ascendant Houthis, infuriating their backers Iran.

Explosions rang out across Sanaa in the early hours of Thursday as the Royal Saudi Air Force jets strafed Houthi military positions, shortly after Riyadh's envoy to the US announced the start of "Operation Decisive Storm."

"The Kingdom Saudi Arabia has launched military operations in Yemen, as part of a coalition of over ten countries in response to a direct request from the legitimate government," Adel al-Jubeir said in a dramatic press conference.

He added that Saudi-led campaign aimed to "protect the people of Yemen… from a takeover by the Houthis" as the Iranian-backed fighting force in recent has pressed its lightning advances across the country into President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi's hometown of Aden.

The Shiite Zaidi Ansar Allah party, more commonly known as the Houthis, took control of Yemen's government after seizing Sanaa in early February, sending Riyadh's favored leader Hadi on the run.

Tehran, which has provided military and political support for the Houthis, swiftly condemned the military campaign, warning Saudi its actions would have consequences.

"We demand an immediate stop to the Saudi military operations in Yemen," Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stressed as airstrikes continued to hit Houthi positions.

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Meanwhile, the chairman of the Iranian parliament's foreign policy and national security committee issued a stark warning to Riyadh that it was "playing with fire."

"Saudi Arabia is playing with fire and undoubtedly there will be serious consequences that will bring harm to the Kingdom," Aleddine Bourejerdi said.

Regional consequences

Saudi Arabia's audacious offensive in Yemen comes amid a regional cold war between Riyadh and Tehran, which has publicly touted its political and military advances in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.
A Houthi fighter walks at the site of an air strike at a residential area near Sanaa Airport March 26, 2015.
Khaled Abdullah/Reuters

The Saudi-led "Operation Decisive Storm"—which includes Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan and the Gulf states of UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, Jordan—is the latest fighting coalition to emerge among the kaleidoscope of conflicts in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia is a member of the US-led coalition fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq, where Iran has coordinated the Iraqi government's ground campaign against the militant group. The same day Riyadh began its Yemen operations, the US launched airstrikes on Tikrit, where Iranian-backed Shiite militias are at the forefront of the stalled assault on the ISIS-held city.

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The UAE's foreign minister explained that his country joined the Saudi-led coalition because "the strategic change in the region in favor of Iran that carries the banner of the Houthis cannot be tolerated."

"The crisis in Yemen and the Houthi coup is another phenomenon [upsetting] the Arab regional order; 'Operation Decisive Storm' is a new page of Arab cooperation for the security of the region," Anwar Gargash wrote Thursday on Twitter.

While, Iranian officials have not publicly stated how they will respond to the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, they did warn it would carry consequences. A leading member of Tehran's Houthi proxies, in turn, told Al-Jazeera that the military operations in his country "will drag the region to a wide war."

A veteran Saudi journalist and insider told NOW that Iran faced "very hard" choices in how to respond to "Operation Decisive Storm."

"They could send naval ships to the region, but they will face the Saudi and Pakistani one," Jamal Khashoggi, the former advisor to Saudi's former ambassador to the US Prince Turki bin Faisal, said.

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"They might use their own militias scattered over the region" to respond to Saudi Arabia, he added, in reference to Tehran's powerful proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.

Military dimensions

Although Saudi Arabia stressed "Operation Decisive Storm" would not be wide-ranging, Riyadh and its regional allies have already committed substantial military resources to the fight.
An armed man gestures as he stands on the rubble of houses destroyed by an air strike near Sanaa Airport March 26, 2015.
Khaled Abdullah/Reuters

"The operation will be limited in nature, and designed to protect the people of Yemen and its legitimate government," Saudi Arabia's envoy announced early Thursday.

However, Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya television reported that Riyadh had deployed "100 fighter jets, 150,000 soldiers and other navy units," while Gulf states, Jordan and Egypt were all contributing to the aerial campaign.

Prior to the advent of the airstrikes, Saudi Arabia had mobilized large contingents of armor and artillery to its southern border, with one US official telling Reuters that the deployment was "significant."

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Saudi's initial airstrikes aimed to clear a "no-fly zone" over Yemen and take out the country's hostile air defense systems, securing the way for an expanded aerial campaign.

CNN cited a Saudi military source as saying that his country's jets had targeted air defense and fighter jets.

"Saudi military aircraft have basically secured most of Yemeni airspace and are consolidating a wide no-fly zone," the source added.

"Operation Decisive Storm" also includes a naval element, with the coalition partners seeking to secure the Gulf of Aden south of Yemen.

As developments moved quickly, reports emerged that Egypt was dispatching at four of its naval vessels to the strategic seaway, according to Reuters, while Pakistan pledged naval resources for the mission.
Houthi fighters in police uniform guard outside the presidential palace in Sanaa February 6, 2015.
Mohamed al-Sayaghi/Reuters

The Gulf of Aden is a key logistical supply line for the Houthis to receive arms shipments from Iran.

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Last week, Al-Arabiya reported that Iran unloaded over 180 tons of military equipment for the Houthis in Yemen's western port of Salif, which lies north of the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait connecting the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea.

Fears have risen among Iran's regional allies that Tehran would seek to use the Houthis to control the Bab al-Mandeb shipping lane.

Beyond the scope of the operation, its duration remains in question as Houthis currently hold a strong military position in Yemen, having seized the country's third largest city, Taiz, over the weekend, while its fighters advanced in Aden and reportedly took the port city's airport.

According to Kashoggi, "the military operation will end the moment the Houthist armed group are ready to accept the [GCC] initiative" brokered in 2011 that drew a political roadmap for a transition of power in Yemen.

Houthis had originally rejected the initiative, which saw Ali Abdullah Saleh hand over power to Hadi, and their recent military gains and government takeover brought the GCC roadmap's envisioned transition to an end.