Best director is the only really tough pick for me. Michel Hazanavicius may take it for The Artist — which I do think will win best picture. But Tree of Life seems like more of an “important” film, even if nobody saw it, and that should carry it for Malick.

Michelle Williams (pictured above) was great as Marilyn Monroe, and Meryl Streep hasn’t won for ages, but in the end a good performance in a social justice film always wins out. That’s why Viola Davis will win for best actress, and why Demián Bichir will win best actor.

Christopher Plummer seems like a lock for his body of work (and for taking a “daring” role in old age, if it’s still considered daring to play a gay man). And Melissa McCarthy will win because people want to vote for Bridesmaids, which was everyone’s real favorite entertainment of the year.