Why Newcastle moving for Bas Dost is a major gamble

It has been reported by the Mirror that Newcastle are close to wrapping up the first signing of the Steve McClaren era, with Bas Dost set to arrive from Wolfsburg.

The 26-year-old is expected to pen a four-year deal, with the Magpies paying a £9 million fee to bring him to Tyneside after an exploding season with the Volkswagen-backed outfit.

In the 2014/15 Bundesliga season, Dutch international Dost netted 16 goals in 21 games, enjoying a prolific season in front of goal, and registering a 41% season-wide conversion rate.

With statistics like that, it comes as no surprise that his name has been linked with a host of top European clubs, and it appears as if the Magpies have now won the race to sign the in-demand forward.

Whilst this should excite Newcastle fans, making a move for Dost is a real gamble, and one that the Magpies should be wary of.

Despite his impressive goalscoring returns, Dost actually endured something of a hit-and-miss season - except for one run of games at the start of 2015 which improved his goal tally.

He netted 12 of his 16 goals in a run of seven games at the beginning of 2015 - including netting four in one - before going on a run of seven games without scoring, even finding himself on the bench for two of those fixtures.

He started the season not even in the first-team set-up, being on the bench just twice in the first seven games, before making his first appearance of the season as a 13 minute substitute during the eight game.

Dost’s incredible goalscoring season was actually an incredible goalscoring run of form, which, whilst impressive, takes much away from his actual ability.

There are worries that he may not be able to replicate that form next season, regardless of where he is playing, and if Wolfsburg do sell him, it is likely that they are cashing in on his optimum market price.

Newcastle may be the beneficiaries of a talented striker, but right now he is unproven, and Dost looks to be a player who will not repeat his wonder spell in front of goal.

Billy Hawkins

Billy is a freelance writer who contributes to various sites concerning football. Known to possess an obsession with statistics, Eastern European club sides, and Victorian football, he focuses upon the untapped potential of the Football League in the belief it is more enjoyable than the Premier League.