“Worst-case scenario, WA light lambs could drop to about 600¢/kg if there is a strong sell-off but I don’t think we will see a big drop-off in prices this season because we are still seeing a big offshore demand.”

The ESTLI last week closed down at 926¢/kg cwt after saleyard lamb prices across the country dropped 1.7 per cent.

Though the market’s winter supply is tightening, Mr Dalgleish said the national indicator had taken a backwards step as many Eastern States farmers prepared for the looming spring flush.

“Producers will be conscious that the spring flush is just around the corner,” he said.

“Last season the ESTLI peaked in late August and declined 23 per cent over the month of September. A similar magnitude drop this season would place the ESTLI at around 730¢/kg cwt.

“East Coast lamb weekly slaughter levels are heading towards 250,000 head and the average seasonal trend shows that slaughter levels usually begin to increase from the winter trough in late July.”