5/24/14

Here's the thought experiment I've been playing with this morning: Take your political* Head of State and place her or him in the centre of the region of their own country that shows the most opposition to their government or administration, with no security detail or special physical protection. The question is, would said HoS then be murdered? Here are my subjective thoughts on a few places I know something about and/or watch closely, add your own if you like.

The UK: No. Cameron would have a very rough time and plenty of verbal haranguing, but physical violence would be unlikely.

Canada: Ditto. Many people hate Harper, but they're unlikely to get medieval on the guy.

France: No. More likely they'd end up inviting Hollande to dinner and launching into deep debate in order to convince him of the error of his ways, with consensus over at least a couple of items reached over the calvados and cheese.

Argentina: No and for three reasons: Argentines talk more aggressively than they act re. politics, there are too many people who ID themselves as Peronists that will hate CFK's style but agree on baseline substance, plus as a country they're culturally very respectful towards women.

Peru: No. Ollanta hasn't screwed up people's lives (so far). He may have ignored people who he said he'd help since coming to power and there is plenty of resentment over certain issues, but people's justice wouldn't carry to murder.

Colombia: Tough call frankly, it's the one I've been debating over more than any other. Santos may be in mortal danger in the unfettered company of far-lefties or far-righties there, but I'd guess the potential of his murder would first be used as some sort of bargaining chip in a wider deal (or non-deal). There's an element of cold and calculated in this one, unlikely to be an instant, hot-blooded killing.

The USA: Yes. A stereotyped collective negro lynch mob death probably wouldn't happen, but the chances that one nutbar or a group of them consider it their patriotic duty to remove a powerful black democrat from the face of the planet are very high. The free availability of nasty weapons, the window of opportunity and the archetype individualistic, fractured society of self-importance all point in the same direction.

Mexico: Yes. Plonk Peña Nieto in front of the narco groups that he's been trying to dismantle and the only debate would be the way in which he's to die, including the amount of pre-death pain his executioner would inflict just for fun.

5/23/14

In order to dislodge the long-standing but totally non-violent and peaceful protest, police are firing on the 'La Puya' protesters at the El Tambor gold project in Guatemala, owned by US company Kappes, Cassiday & Associates.

Bullets for peace, or progress, or something. I forget which excuse is used for which mine protest suppression in Guatemala. Anyway, blood.

Tell me guys, did she slip and fall over or something? And here's another one KCA can frame and proudly display on its reception wall or in the corporate presentation. Y'know, the space mining companies always give to the happy smiling kids snap.

Get this week's right here.Those of you who follow the copper market closely would be smart to read this report on a weekly basis. I've done so for a few years in Spanish and consideration of its datasets helps a lot in understanding the ebbs and flows. Now it's in English, more people can diretcly benefit. Recommended link and if you sign up for the e-mail alert service while you're over there (all gratis) you'll get a nudge each week as the new edition comes out.

The Company has become aware of a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (US FWS) letter that was submitted to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) summarizing their rationale for re-initiation of consultation, which includes the recent sighting of an ocelot in the general study area. The animal was photographed by a remote camera some distance south of the project site. The USFS is currently evaluating the issues raised in the letter and, as the action agency, will decide whether further consultation is necessary.

....

Commented Gil Clausen, Augusta's president and CEO, "While we are disappointed with any delay, our expectation is that these final issues will be handled in a timely, expeditious manner."

Kind reader, do you too remember back in the good ol' days when juniors used to run placements, then have news that the market liked, then were able to exercise the warrants from the placement because the stock price had gone up sufficiently, thereby raising more cash without shedding a tear? My oh Lordy Lord and my, it seems like a long time ago but it still happens from time to time in this modern era of junior love, too. Here's the Focus Ventures (FCV.v) NR today and here's the business end of the message:

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - May 21, 2014) - Focus Ventures Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:FCV) announces the acceleration of the expiry date of warrants (the "Warrants") previously issued by the Company in connection with its private placement financing completed on November 28, 2013.

Effective as of the market close on May 20, 2014, the closing price of the Company's common shares on the TSX Venture Exchange has been greater than $0.25 for at least 10 consecutive trading days. In accordance with the terms thereof, 12,670,800 Warrants exercisable at $0.20 per share and 284,579 Warrants exercisable at $0.16 per share will now expire on June 23, 2014, being 30 days after two trading days following the date of this release and the concurrent notification of the acceleration sent by the Company to the Warrant holders.

...has just been sent to subscribers, just after 7am local time (that's 8am Toronto, btw) on this sunny and crisp autumnal Wednesday morning. It contains thoughts about a couple of companies that want to get together and become one company. Do you cry at weddings too?

5/20/14

The big problem that Colombian presidential candidate Oscar Zuluaga has in the run up to election day Sunday isn't that he's been caught using illegal wiretapping to gain advantage. That's the small problem, the big problem is that he's been caught flat out lying about it all because he denied all knowledge and repeated his "no no no" message right up to the point when the video of him doing exactly what he denied doing was released in Colombia. Hilarity ensued.

An ex-campaign worker for presidential candidate Oscar Ivan Zuluaga who filmed his former boss being briefed on allegedly illegally gained information claimed on Monday that he had been hired as part of a “cyber attack” team against President Juan Manuel Santos.

Yes, you read that right. If this is true it's mindblowing, you're going to have to read it.

The link to the story is here, don't hang around IKN a second longer.

UPDATE: Oh well, looks like a hoax. Please ignore. In fact I've decided to remove the link, because there's no point in reading it and I freely admit to being taken in. However I'll leave this post up as proof of my occasional gullibility. Errare humanum est, perseverare diabolicum.

Today marks the start of Peru's "International Gold and Silver Symposium" event, now in its 11th incarnation, which is basically a three day (read 'two night') bunfest for the gold industry. Local and international mining bigwigs talk, round tables are rounded, politicians are listened to with respect, pisco sours are quaffed.

However, this humble scribe wonders whether anyone at the bash will tackle the real elephant in the room rather than go for the "oh aren't we wonderful" platitudes of always. As noted yesterday, Peru's gold mining industry is in sharp decline and at least part of the blame must be taken by the people who haven't managed to add new mines, letting production figures decay as a result.

Junior Mining Company: We have this great new project to work. It's called Sinchao

Market: What about the community relations there?

Junior Mining Company: Well we know they're a bit difficult, but there's plenty of support too and we're sure there's a win-win deal possible. And the rocks are great!

Market: Great! And yes, those rocks are great! Good luck!

Act Two

Junior Mining Company: Hi, we'd love to make Sinchao work for everybody.

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

Junior Mining Company: Well, we understand that you've not had the best of relationships with previous companies, but...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

Junior Mining Company: Ok fine but if you'd just...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

Junior Mining Company: But...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

Junior Mining Company: But...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

Junior Mining Company: But...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

Junior Mining Company: But...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

Act Three

Market: So how's it going with Sinchao, guys?

Junior Mining Company: Well the rocks are great!

Market: Yeah, the rocks are great!

Junior Mining Company: But the community, they won't listen to reason! We want to help them, but they don't want our help! It's bizarre.

Market: What seems to be the problem?

Junior Mining Company: It's all a bit complicated but it's not our fault you know! It's all about (mentions left wing politicians, backwards community leaders, corruption, a few hints about drug money)

Market: Hmmm, well do you think it can be fixed?

Junior Mining Company: Oh yes, we have this great community relations team working there. A matter of time, I'd say. And the rocks are great!

Market: Yes, the rocks are great.

Act Four

Junior Mining Company: Hi!

Other Mining Company: Hi!

Junior Mining Company: We have this really cool project, but we're running out of cash. Would you like to join us and help?

Other Mining Company: Well that's great, because we have cash but we don't have any cool projects.

New Junior Mining Company: We have this great new project to work. It used to be called Sinchao but we've decided that it's a great idea to change its name! So it's now called Antakori!

Market: Great name!

New Junior Mining Company: Thanks!

Market: What about the community relations there?

Junior Mining Company: Well, we know they're a bit difficult, but there's plenty of support too and we're sure there's a win-win deal possible. And the rocks are great!

Market: Great! And yes, those rocks are great! Good luck!

Act Six

New Junior Mining Company: Hi, we'd love to make Antakori work for everybody.

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

New Junior Mining Company: Well, we understand that you've not had the best of relationships with previous companies, but...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

New Junior Mining Company: Ok fine but if you'd just...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

New Junior Mining Company: But...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

New Junior Mining Company: But...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

New Junior Mining Company: But...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

New Junior Mining Company: But...

Community: We don't want you here. Go away.

Act Seven

Market: So how's it going with Antakori, guys?

New Junior Mining Company: Well the rocks are great!

Market: Yeah, the rocks are great!

New Junior Mining Company: But the community, they won't listen to reason! We want to help them, but they don't want our help! It's bizarre.

Market: What seems to be the problem?

New Junior Mining Company: It's all a bit complicated but it's not our fault you know! It's all about (mentions left wing politicians, backwards community leaders, corruption, a few hints about drug money)

Market: Hmmm, well do you think it can be fixed?

New Junior Mining Company: Oh yes, we have this great community relations team working there. A matter of time, I'd say. and the rocks are great!

Market: Yup, the rocks are great

Act Eight

New Junior Mining Company: Hi!

Yet Another Mining Company: Hi!

New Junior Mining Company: We have this really cool project, but we're running out of cash. Would you like to join us and help?

Yet Another Mining Company: Well that's great, because we have cash but we don't have any cool projects.

New Junior Mining Company: Cool! What shall we call ourselves?

Yet Another Mining Company: Let's call ourselves "The New New Junior Mining Company".

5/19/14

It's not merely a decline any longer, as Peru's second biggest export (after copper) is going downhill fast and here are the charts to prove the point.

First up, this shows monthly production since 2005:

Second, you take those production figures, factor in the average monthly London Fix price (available on kitco) and you get the dollar export value for gold each month:

This last chart shows how the year-over-year percentage change for Peru's monthly gold revenues (i.e. that chart we just saw above) has been doing in the key period since 2010:

And that's a big drop. By looking at the three charts, the problem becomes clear enough. Chart one shows the gradual decline in production, which means not nearly enough new mines coming on line to replace those that are now depleting fast (Yanacocha, Pierina, Lagunas Norte etc). As chart two shows, this wasn't noticed by the world in the 2009-2012 period thanks to the rise in gold prices, the cracks were duly papered over and all was hunkydory. But now that gold prices have dropped, the lack of development in production ounce terms is hitting home.

A 29 year old woman confessed to having caused the blaze in her house, located in Villa Lololhue de Osorno, after burning her husband's clothes on a bed after drinking alcohol and motivated by jealousy.

The woman could not control the flames that broke out around 10pm on Sunday evening and they spread throughout the house, destroying it completely and also damaging the neighbouring house, reports SoyChile.

Two adults and two children have been left homeless due to the blaze.

Meanwhile, the woman was arrested after her confession and this Monday will be remanded at the local courtroom.

The United States welcomes the announcement of further progress in efforts to achieve the peace the Colombian people deserve through negotiations.

Resolving the question of narcotics production and trafficking is central to achieving that peace. We congratulate president Santos and the Colombian government for this advance.

The FARC has long been deeply involved in, and profited from, cocaine production and transshipment. Reducing cocaine trafficking, including through eradication and interdiction, helped establish the conditions for the peace process now underway.

In making this announcement, Colombian government officials underlined the importance of maintaining both manual and aerial eradication capabilities.

As this process moves forward, we will engage with our Colombian partners on this important topic.

OK, so it doesn't say outright "We want Juanma and not Uribe's lapdog", but the timing and the message is plain enough.

The government on Sunday approved a three-year NIS 50 million plan to strengthen its economic ties with at least five Latin American countries, meant to help Israel decrease its dependency on Europe as the primary trading partner.

The plan focuses on Costa Rica and the four countries that make up the Pacific Alliance – Columbia, Mexico, Chile and Peru.

These five countries have a combined GDP of over $3 trillion and constitute 40 percent of Latin America’s GDP, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

5/18/14

It's been a very dirty campaign and there's now just a week to go before the first round vote. For those of you who want to follow the lead-up to the big day and get wise on the very negative campaigns of the main candidates, but want it in English, you'll do well to tune into Colombia Reportsthis week.

1) Mining Marketwatch (the website in question) is one of those that is paid by companies for promotion. Very simply, junior mining company writes a cheque, the people behind the website write a puff piece, you get fed bullshit.

2) It's used by the total crud end of the junior market, the ones that can't get a good word said about them after promoting worthless stories and moose pastures for years on end and crushing shareholder's equity value to pieces in the process. All the companies, every single one of them, that pay Mining Marketwatch to write pump stories are a complete waste of time and money. I mean these are the guys that pump Metanor (MTO.v) to you non-stop, fercryinoutloud.

3) If you want to know some basic truths about Honey Badger Don't Care (TUF.v), things that somehow slipped the mind of the person who wrote up that bullshit linked above, check this March 2014 post out.

Avoid this stock like the plague, along with anything else promo'd by the scam merchants at Mining Marketwatch. Message ends.

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