Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Longitudinal data are becoming increasingly common in social science research. In this chapter, we discuss methods for exploiting the features of longitudinal data to study causal effects. The methods we discuss are broadly termed fixed effects and random effects models. We begin by discussing some of the advantages of fixed effects models over traditional regression approaches and then present a basic notation for the fixed effects model. This notation serves also as a baseline for introducing the random effects model, a common alternative to the fixed effects approach. After comparing fixed effects and random effects models – paying particular attention to their underlying assumptions – we describe hybrid models that combine attractive features of each. To provide a deeper understanding of these models, and to help researchers determine the most appropriate approach to use when analyzing longitudinal data, we provide three empirical examples. We also briefly discuss several extensions of fixed/random effects models. We conclude by suggesting additional literature that readers may find helpful.

Into the Red and Back to the Nest? Debt and Returning to the Parental Home
Presented: Chicago IL, American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, August 2015
Cohort(s):
NLSY97
Publisher:
American Sociological AssociationKeyword(s):
Credit/Credit Constraint; Debt/Borrowing; Modeling, Hazard/Event History/Survival/Duration; Residence, Return to Parental Home/Delayed Homeleaving

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

In this paper we make two primary contributions to the literature on “boomeranging”, or returning to the parental home. First, we provide one of the first examinations of the prevalence and correlates of boomeranging among a recent cohort of young adults. Second, we test the hypothesis that student loan and credit card debt increase the risk of boomeranging. To do this, we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort (NLSY-97) and discrete time event history models to examine the link between debt and risk of returning to the parental home. We find that approximately 40% of young adults who become independent in our sample return home between 1997-2011 (7.6% annually). We also find key sociodemographic correlates of returning home. However, we find no support for the popular hypothesis that debt in young adulthood is associated with the risk of returning home, or boomeranging.

Bibliography Citation

Houle, Jason N. and Cody Warner. "Into the Red and Back to the Nest? Debt and Returning to the Parental Home." Presented: Chicago IL, American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, August 2015.

Into the Red and Back to the Nest? Debt and Returning to the Parental Home among Young Adults
Presented: San Diego CA, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, April-May 2015
Cohort(s):
NLSY97
Publisher:
Population Association of AmericaKeyword(s):
College Cost; Credit/Credit Constraint; Debt/Borrowing; Event History; Residence, Return to Parental Home/Delayed Homeleaving; Socioeconomic Background

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

In this paper we make two primary contributions to the literature on "boomeranging," or returning to the parental home. First, we provide one of the first examinations of the prevalence and correlates of boomeranging among a recent cohort of young adults. Second, we test the hypothesis that student loan and credit card debt increase the risk of boomeranging. To do this, we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort (NLSY-97) and discrete time event history models to examine the link between debt and risk of returning to the parental home. We find that approximately 40% of young adults who become independent in our sample return home between 1997-2011 (7.6% annually). We also find key sociodemographic correlates of returning home. However, we find no support for the popular hypothesis that debt in young adulthood is associated with the risk of returning home, or boomeranging.

Bibliography Citation

Houle, Jason N. and Cody Warner. "Into the Red and Back to the Nest? Debt and Returning to the Parental Home among Young Adults." Presented: San Diego CA, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, April-May 2015.

Into the Red and Back to the Nest? Student Debt, College Completion, and Returning to the Parental Home among Young Adults
Sociology of Education 90,1 (January 2017): 89-108.
Also: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0038040716685873
Cohort(s):
NLSY97
Publisher:
American Sociological AssociationKeyword(s):
College Cost; College Degree; Debt/Borrowing; Racial Differences; Residence, Return to Parental Home/Delayed Homeleaving; Student Loans; Transition, Adulthood

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Rising student debt has sparked concerns about its impact on the transition to adulthood. In this paper, we examine the claim that student debt is leading to a rise in ‘"boomeranging," or returning home, using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort and discrete time-event history models. We have four findings. First, student loan debt is not associated with boomeranging in the complete sample. However, we find that the association differs by race, such that the link between student debt and returning home is stronger for black than for white youth. Third, degree completion is a strong predictor of returning home, whereby those who fail to attain a degree have an increased risk of boomeranging. Fourth, young adult role transitions and socioeconomic well-being are associated with boomeranging. Findings suggest that rising debt has created new risks and may reproduce social inequalities in the transition to adulthood.

Bibliography Citation

Houle, Jason N. and Cody Warner. "Into the Red and Back to the Nest? Student Debt, College Completion, and Returning to the Parental Home among Young Adults." Sociology of Education 90,1 (January 2017): 89-108.

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Each year, more than 700,000 convicted offenders are released from prison and reenter neighborhoods across the country. Prior studies have found that minority ex-inmates tend to reside in more disadvantaged neighborhoods than do white ex-inmates. However, because these studies do not control for pre-prison neighborhood conditions, we do not know how much (if any) of this racial variation is due to arrest and incarceration, or if these observed findings simply reflect existing racial residential inequality. Using a nationally representative dataset that tracks individuals over time, we find that only whites live in significantly more disadvantaged neighborhoods after prison than prior to prison. Blacks and Hispanics do not, nor do all groups (whites, blacks, and Hispanics) as a whole live in worse neighborhoods after prison. We attribute this racial variation in the effect of incarceration to the high degree of racial neighborhood inequality in the United States: because white offenders generally come from much better neighborhoods, they have much more to lose from a prison spell. In addition to advancing our understanding of the social consequences of the expansion of the prison population, these findings demonstrate the importance of controlling for pre-prison characteristics when investigating the effects of incarceration on residential outcomes.

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

The expansion of the penal state has been one of the most dramatic developments in
contemporary American Society. Current estimates suggest that one of every 100
American adults is now incarcerated, and each year more than 700,000 individuals are
released from prison, numbers that represent a five-fold increase from just a few decades
earlier. This dramatic expansion spurred a wealth of research which has focused on the
detrimental impact incarceration has on a range of life course outcomes including
employment, wages, health, and marital stability. Notably missing from this literature is
a systematic examination of the potential impact that incarceration has on the
communities to which ex-inmates return following their release from prison. Using
nationally representative panel data, this study begins to fill this empirical gap by
examining the relationship between incarceration and levels of neighborhood
disadvantage. Controlling for neighborhood of origin, we find that upon release
incarceration is associated with residence in more disadvantaged neighborhoods,
especially for white ex-inmates. These findings have direct implications for
understanding the social consequences of the expansion of the penal state as well as the
patterns of residential mobility and disadvantage.

Bibliography Citation

Massoglia, Michael, Glenn Firebaugh and Cody Warner. "Where Do They Live Now? Racial Variation in the Effect of Incarceration on Neighborhood Disadvantage." Presented: Washington DC, Population Assocation of America Meetings, March-April 2011.

Examining the Residential Mobility Patterns of Individuals with a History of Incarceration
Presented: San Francisco CA, Population Association of America Meetings, May 2012
Cohort(s):
NLSY79
Publisher:
Population Association of AmericaKeyword(s):
Geocoded Data; Incarceration/Jail; Mobility, Residential

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Thanks to a massive expansion of the penal state, there now exists an identifiable felon class in American society. Increased scholarly attention to this group has documented collateral consequences of incarceration across a number of domains. Researchers have also become interested in examining the types of neighborhoods that ex-inmates reside in, which have important implications for the reentry process. Little is known, however, about the residential mobility patterns of individuals who have experienced correctional contact. This study draws on locational attainment and incarceration effects literatures to examine the impact of incarceration on residential mobility decisions. I find that exiting correctional confinement foster mobility behavior, but this effect is strongest for local moves. These results have important implications for understanding both the consequences of incarceration as well as the more general sorting of households into neighborhoods of varying quality.

Bibliography Citation

Warner, Cody. "Examining the Residential Mobility Patterns of Individuals with a History of Incarceration." Presented: San Francisco CA, Population Association of America Meetings, May 2012.

From the Cot to the Couch? Young Adult Incarceration and Returns to the Parental Household
Presented: Montreal, QC, American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, August 2017
Cohort(s):
NLSY97
Publisher:
American Sociological AssociationKeyword(s):
Incarceration/Jail; Residence, Return to Parental Home/Delayed Homeleaving

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

A growing body of research has examined the effect of incarceration on housing and residential outcomes. The results of this work paint a complicated picture; where housing insecurities are common, in some cases helpful, and in other cases a risk factor for recidivism. The current study adds to this literature by focusing on residential independence following release from incarceration. In response to growing shares of young adults living in the parental home, researchers have begun to investigate the causes and consequences of residential independence and later returns home (or boomeranging). Drawing on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort, and utilizing event history data that provides the month and year of key life events, I find that exiting prison or jail increases the risk of moving back into the parental home. In addition, the risk of boomeranging is highest in the months and years closest to the release date. I close by considering the implications of these findings, especially given that residence with parents after release may be protective against recidivism.

Bibliography Citation

Warner, Cody. "From the Cot to the Couch? Young Adult Incarceration and Returns to the Parental Household." Presented: Montreal, QC, American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, August 2017.

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), I examine the impact of incarceration on residential mobility between neighborhoods of varying quality. Little is known about how incarceration, and the subsequent criminal label and stigma, impacts the mobility patterns of the nearly 700,000 convicted offenders who are released from prison every year. My results show that incarceration leads to downward mobility from non-poor into poor neighborhoods. Incarceration is unrelated, on the other hand, to upward mobility out of poor neighborhoods. This effect appears to be driven by correctional contact generally, rather than through physical separation and sentence length. Additional analyses show that the effect of incarceration is strongest among white ex-inmates, who have more to lose than minority ex-inmates in terms of locational attainment outcomes. My results provide evidence that incarceration should be placed alongside human capital characteristics and structural barriers as an important predictor of mobility between poor and non-poor neighborhoods. Furthermore, by funneling ex-inmates into poor neighborhoods, which is itself a risk factor for recidivism, these results have important implications for ex-inmate reentry and reintegration.

The present study examines the relationship between incarceration and post-prison residential mobility. In spite of recent research examining the residential context following incarceration, we know little about if or how incarceration affects individual patterns of residential mobility. This study starts to fill this gap in knowledge by drawing on nationally representative data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79). I find that individuals with a history of incarceration are more likely to move after prison than they are before prison. This relationship holds even after accounting for various time-varying and time-stable sources of spuriousness, including other known correlates of mobility. Additional analyses suggest that this effect is strongest early in the reentry period, and that there exists important racial variation in the relationship between incarceration and mobility. These results imply that, while housing stability is an important feature of successful prisoner reentry, incarceration contributes to larger patterns of residential instability.

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

This study examines the impact of incarceration on residential mobility between poor and nonpoor neighborhoods. Formerly incarcerated individuals move at high rates, but little is known about if or how incarceration impacts movement between neighborhoods of varying quality. I ground my approach in traditional accounts of locational attainment that emphasize pathways and barriers between poor and nonpoor neighborhoods. Results show that incarceration leads to downward neighborhood mobility from nonpoor into poor neighborhoods. Incarceration does not appear to trap formerly incarcerated individuals in poor neighborhoods. Additional analyses show that the effect of incarceration is initially strongest among formerly incarcerated whites, but that there is significant racial variation in neighborhood mobility across time. My results provide evidence that incarceration should be placed alongside human capital characteristics and structural barriers as an important predictor of mobility between poor and nonpoor neighborhoods.

Bibliography Citation

Warner, Cody. "The Effect of Incarceration on Residential Mobility between Poor and Nonpoor Neighborhoods." City and Community 15,4 (December 2016): 423-443.

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

The American criminal justice system has expanded considerably since the 1970s, and research finds that formerly incarcerated individuals are disadvantaged in the labor market, experiencing unemployment and reduced wages. Recent research further demonstrates that incarceration is damaging to wealth accumulation, including homeownership. We extend this research to consider if incarceration is associated with unsecured debt owed to credit card companies or other business. While some research examines the growth and proliferation of legal debt associated with a criminal conviction, no studies have explicitly examined if or how incarceration impacts access to credit or overall debt burdens. Drawing on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort (NLYS97), we have two key findings. First, young adults with a history of incarceration are nearly 40% less likely to report unsecured debt than their never-incarcerated counterparts. That said, and second, among those with debt, formerly incarcerated young adults report over $11,000 more unsecured debt, or average, than their peers. Thus, incarceration appears to limit access to credit, but increases debt burdens among those who borrow. Our findings provide further evidence on the diverse and deleterious economic outcomes associated with incarceration, and contribute to growing knowledge of the indebtedness of American families.

Precocious Life Course Transitions, Exits From, and Returns to the Parental Home
Advances in Life Course Research 35 (March 2018): 1-10.
Also: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104026081730062X
Cohort(s):
NLSY97
Publisher:
ElsevierKeyword(s):
Age at First Birth; Age at First Marriage; Cohabitation; High School Dropouts; High School Employment; Life Course; Mothers, Adolescent; Residence, Return to Parental Home/Delayed Homeleaving; Transition, Adulthood

Residential independence has long been considered a core feature of the transition to adulthood in contemporary American society. But in recent years a growing share of young adults are living in their parents' household, and many of these have returned home after a spell of residential independence. Recent research on exits and returns to the parental home has focused on the role of concurrent life-course transitions, young adult social and economic status, family background, and family connectivity. We know little, however, about how precocious, or early, life course transitions during adolescence affect leaving or returning home. We use longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1997 Cohort) to examine the association between precocious transitions to adult roles during adolescence and home-leaving (n = 8,865) and home-returning (n = 7,704) in the United States. Some, but not all, precocious transitions are tied to residential transitions, and often in competing ways. Our findings contribute to growing research on young adults living in the parental home, and shows how adolescent experiences can contribute to inequality in the transition to adulthood.

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Incarceration is typically conceptualized as a distinct turning point in the life course. Research shows that a spell of incarceration disrupts important life course transitions, such as entry into stable employment and family formation. Although recent research has also started to explore the residential consequences of incarceration, little is known about the impact that incarceration has on the transition to residential independence. This is a notable oversight, as the transition to an independent household is a key marker of adulthood. Because incarceration diminishes marriage and employment prospects and slows wage growth, we suggest that incarceration could also work to inhibit residential independence. This research draws on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), which contains almost 30 years of correctional and housing histories to explore the effect of a prison spell on the likelihood of residing in an independent household. Our findings suggest that incarceration hinders attainment of independent housing, net of age and other core determinants of living independently. Furthermore, an interaction between age and correctional contact suggests that this relationship may depend on the timing of confinement. Findings are discussed in the context of a growing body of work on the collateral consequences of incarceration.

Bibliography Citation

Warner, Cody and Brianna Remster. "Incarceration and the Transition to Residential Independence." Presented: Chicago IL, American Society of Criminology Annual Meeting, November 2012.

In this paper we examine how life events impact inter-neighborhood residential mobility among a cohort of young adults from the United States. We combine choice-based models of mobility with life-course principles to argue that life events associated with the transition to adulthood should be associated with residential mobility in the short-term, but residential stability in the long-term. Unanticipated and disruptive events, on the other hand, are expected to place individuals on a long-term trajectory of residential instability. Longitudinal survey data covering nearly 30 years allows us to capture short-term effects, average effects, and trends across time. We find particularly strong short-term effects on mobility for marriage and homeownership, both of which subsequently lead to long-term stability. We also find that divorce and incarceration (an emerging turning point in the life-course) predict instability in both the short- and long-term. Additional analyses suggest that some events – like homeownership – are immediately stabilizing, while others – like marriage – lead to stability across time. We conclude by discussing the contributions of the findings to our understanding of residential mobility and the transition to adulthood in the contemporary United States.

Bibliography Citation

Warner, Cody and Gregory Sharp. "The Short- and Long-Term Effects of Life Events on Residential Mobility." Advances in Life Course Research 27 (March 2016): 1-15.