After some inquiry, I find it impossible to believe that the Freedom Caucus would arbitrarily cave to the ascendancy of Paul Ryan without specific preconditions. No one was more surprised than I at the news that the HFC (House Freedom Caucus) was intending to back Ryan for Speaker, but as I reflect upon the nature of this situation, it would appear that it is Paul Ryan, not the HFC, that’s playing a dangerous game.

The HFC established a series of reasonable, process-oriented demands that Speaker candidates would have to agree to before they would grant their collective support. Clearly Boehner and McCarthy had no intention of changing a single thing in order to satisfy the building frustration amongst the most conservative and libertarian House Members. The Establishment may have realized that their only path toward maintaining control over The House was to bend to the will of their conservative minority. If Paul Ryan publicly states that he is willing to meet the terms of the HFC, then I don’t see how the HFC could refuse their support, regardless of his liberal record.

The HFC announced their demands publicly. If the Establishment stands up and announces, “Fine. We’ll meet your demands”, the HFC would appear weak and untrustworthy if they remained discontent. In fact, if the Establishment, through Paul Ryan, is willing to return the House to procedural sanity, this is a huge victory for the Freedom Caucus. They were never going to get one of their own as Speaker anyway. Strategically, they had to hold out long enough to get the Leadership to bend.

If Paul Ryan comes out publicly and states that he will meet the requests of the HFC, but then turns around and fails to act on those promises, he will have officially ended all hope of there ever being peace or compromise between the corporatist and conservative wings of the Republican Party. That would be the moment that the party officially fractures. It is important to understand that the responsibility and pressure would be entirely on Paul Ryan at that point. The Freedom Caucus would have kept their word and another establishment hack would have lied – that would be the narrative.

So what are we waiting for?

We’re waiting for public comments from Paul Ryan which we will hold him to. If he flat out lies to the American People, there will be consequences for all establishment candidates at the ballot box. This isn’t about trusting Ryan. I don’t. That’s not the point. This is about the HFC being men of their word. They asked for certain conditions to be met and Ryan is likely offering to meet them, end of story. That’s a win.

If however Paul Ryan does not come out and publicly pronounce his intentions, then all bets are off and the HFC has no business giving Ryan a single one of their votes. That we could not forgive. That’s where we are. It’s not pleasant, but what looks like a heartbreaking defeat, could be the first substantial victory for the HFC. Remember, Boehner is still Speaker and nothing has changed. If their principled stand leads to real procedural changes in the House of Representatives, then I say, “Congratulations! Job well done!”.