Middle East

Religious hardliners have won the local council elections in Saudi
Arabia which were held in three phases from February to April 2005.

The western media applauded the decision to hold the elections as a
historic occasion and great step forward in the direction of “democracy”
in this oil rich Kingdom. However they were much more subdued when they
saw the result of the “democracy” they had so recently praised. It seems
like many Saudi Arabians were not that enthusiastic either about the
elections.

Only 40% eligible people registered to voters. The turn out was very low
in all the big cities. According to state television it was 31% in
capital Riyadh, and 29% in commercial capital Jeddah. In Jeddah only 20%
eligible voters were registered. Women were not allowed to participate
in these elections, which itself demonstrates the completely false
nature of this so-called democracy, in which almost 50% population has
no right to vote! The majority of the population, especially young
people showed no interest in these elections, because for them this it
was seen as a useless exercise which would not make any significant
change or difference to their lives.

The elections were held to fill some of the 600 seats of 178 municipal
councils in Saudi Arabia while the rest of them will be filled by
nominations from the King. The cleric-backed candidates have come out on
top in Meddina, Mecca, Tabuk, Taef and other cities and towns. Well
known religious leaders and clerics put their own candidates but did not
themselves take part in the elections. These candidates did less well in
Al Qassim, a region some 300 kilometres north of capital Riyadh, seen as
the heartland of the Wahabi faith. They won just 2 seats whilst the
remaining 5 went to technocrats and businessmen in the regional capital
Buraida. In Unaiza they only won one out of five seats.

According to lawyer Abdul Aziz al Kassem, “The winners can be considered
moderates. They are more open than the official religious establishment
and the Wahhabi currents, they are technocrats and business men with
religious leanings, who are against any liberal reforms of the
theocratic state.” According to the pro-government daily Arab news based
in Jeddah, “The election results are unexpected for both government and
militant groups. The winners are western educated radicals, opposed to
militancy and liberalism and want to keep Saudi Arabia as an Islamic
country, but want more share in the running of government through
elections. They are not a party because it is illegal to form a party,
but still they are very closely connected with each other nationally and
will become a sizeable force in future. There are different currents
among them, but the leading colour is Islamic. This is the emergence of
the middle class on the political scene.”

Middle class

There is no doubt that a new middle class has emerged in last two
decades. There are almost one million people educated from western
colleges and universities. They are mostly professors, doctors, lawyers,
managers, civil servants and businessmen. They have shown their strength
in the elections, by wining 80% the seats. This is an important
development in a tribal-dominated society like Saudi Arabia. Society has
partially emerged from the constraints and confines of traditional
tribal politics. Those who make up the middle classes now have been
transformed from poverty-stricken desert dwellers to wealthy citizens of
modern metropolises within two generations. The middle class
intelligentsia has increased their influence in the last few years. But
it would be a mistake to exaggerate their influence in this conservative
society, compared to the religious leaders and mullahs.

More liberal

The older layer of the middle class is more conservative and supportive
of the royal family than the newer layers. The new generation is more
liberal and wants fast track reforms in the direction of democracy and
liberalism, which the older sections are opposing.

Some frustrated youth are also going towards Islamic fundamentalist
organisations and groups. Most are concern about jobs, because there are
very few jobs available to the educated youth. In many regions
unemployment and poverty has increased in last decade. There is also
strong Arab nationalism developing among the youth. Many people now
oppose the presence of immigrant workers who exist in large numbers in
Saudi Arabia. They are also demanding to impose a ban on the employment
of immigrant workers in certain sectors of economy to employ immigrant
workers. The regime is under pressure and trying to reduce their
numbers. The Saudi government has announced the plan to cut the number
of immigrant workers and will expel 400 000 workers. That means these
jobs will go to local people but with higher wages and less skill. It is
not easy for Saudi companies to employ local workers instead of foreign
immigrant workers, which is a source of cheap labour and
super-exploitation. This issue will remain to be very important and most
debated in the near future.

The Political Divide and Reforms

The municipal elections clearly show the divisions in the society. The
different conflicting currents not only exist but are becoming more
accentuated especially as frustration grows at the slow pace of reforms.
There are two clear trends, one pressing for wider public freedoms and
others jealously defending the kingdom’s Islamic identity against US
pressure for reforms. One voter expressed his views in these words “I
came to vote for candidates with an Islamic orientation. And I want this
message to reach the United States and the entire west”. One businessman
Aref al Ghamdi said, “There are external pressures to introduce reforms
here. It’s all in preparation for Americanisation. That’s why I have
voted for Islamic candidates”. On the other hand schoolteacher Saleh
Abdul Razzaq said: “We want freedom, basic human rights, trade union
rights and democracy in our country. We need to have elected
professional unions, for teachers, doctors, workers and government
employs, to uphold these people’s rights. We also need to be able to
demonstrate peacefully”.

One lawyer commented “We want the Shura council to be elected, that
should respect the opinion of our people”. The question of reforms has
become a contentious matter between different currents. It is just the
beginning of a long process, which will take many twists and turns. The
Royal family is also divided on this issue. Differences are developing
between Crown prince Abdullah and the brothers of king Shah Fahad. This
reflects the fact that the older generation of the Royal family want to
continue to rule the country with iron hand without giving any sort of
concessions to liberals and pro- democracy sections of society.

But new generation want to give limited reforms to keep their control
over country, which they now find impossible to rule in the same old
way. According to a senior Saudi official “We are battling a campaign of
violence by suspected Al-Qaeda militants over the past two years, which
is a danger to the stability and progress of our country. We do not want
to fight two battles at same time, one with militants and the other with
the pro-democracy reformist movement. Now our strategy is to fight
against militants to wipe them out, and engage liberals in a process of
cautious reforms which is tailored to domestic specifications. We have
explained our strategy to the Americans.”

It is clear from these elections that the traditional Wahabi religious
hierarchy, which is linked closely with the state has started to lose
its control and dominance which they enjoyed for nearly 75 years. The
most respected and popular clerics are those who are not directly linked
with the state and Royal Family, and not preaching blind loyalty to
rulers, but talking about the responsibilities of the rulers towards
their people. They also campaign on social and political issues. This
shown by a recent verdict given by some senior clerics in which they
allow women to marry freely and by their own choice, and also declared
forced marriages un-Islamic and inhuman.

A few popular clerics have also issued decrees to give permission to
women to drive cars, which is still not legal. In the absence of a
working class or left alternative, these clerics with the help of more
moderate Islamists can fill the vacuum on the basis of a radical social
and economic programme. They can become the popular voice of the Saudi
people who want a change in the present political system. These clerics
with the support of sections of the middle class can move in the
direction of a more radicalised position despite having an Islamic
colour to their political views.

Liberal Reformist Movement

The reformist movement in Saudi Arabia is facing a very difficult
period. In 2003 this movement was at its height, and dominated the
political scene, but in2004 it was weakened and suffered some serious
blows from a combination of different reasons.

The increased high prices of oil, increased violence from hard-line
Islamic militant groups, increased state repression, and the continued
importance to the regime of Islamic political currents are the main
reasons in the fall in support for liberal reform activism. According to
the well known Saudi journalist Jamal Ghashugi “The issues raised by the
reformers, more political participation , the role of the women,
democratic rights, and constitutional limits on the powers of the
Al-Saud, have not gone away, but at least for now the house of al-Saud
thinks that it does not have to address them. In October 2004, the
cabinet dashed hopes among more liberal sections of society that women
would be allowed to vote in the 2005 elections. In September last year,
in a clear signal that for the regime political activism has its limits,
the cabinet issued the stern reminder that state employees were
prohibited from opposing state policy, even to sign petitions that
called for such changes. Given that the vast majority of Saudis in the
labour force work directly for the state, or indirectly through state
owned companies, this warning had the effect of declaring political
activity out of bounds for most Saudis”.

The case of three defendants who refused to participate in court
proceedings in October last year, because they objected to the fact that
the presiding judge had ordered the trial to be closed to the public,
after earlier sessions had been open, is seen as representing “in
miniature the dashed hopes of Saudi liberal and moderate Islamists
Reformers over the past year”. These three defendants were part of a
group of 12 activists arrested in March for organising a petition
calling for a constitutional monarchy and for trying to establish an
independent human-rights monitoring group. Hundreds of supporters of
these activists came to hear the proceedings in court, and they also
organized a demonstration in the support of them. Now the activists face
a closed court proceeding which has been held inside the prison they are
incarcerated in. According to Jamal Ghashugi “the withering of the
Riyadh Spring can be attributed to a number of factors, but the two most
important are the security and the economic situation. In both cases, a
combination of short term success alleviating immediate pressures and
long term issues that will be more difficult to deal with have created
the circumstances under which rolling back the tentative liberalisation
was a plausible strategy for the rulers. The Saudis are enjoying their
most lucrative years of oil exports ever. In 2004 the projected deficit
turned into 35$ billion surplus, which enabled the rulers to announce
new development projects worth 11 $ billion. There have been steady
stream of announcements regarding new labour regulations aimed at
discouraging employment of foreign workers, opening up job opportunities
for nationals and increasing the participation of Saudi women in the
workforce. While the long term prospects for substantial change in the
Saudi labour market are uncertain, this new influx of money has given
the government confidence that it can deal with the short-term
consequences of unemployment in the country, while also greasing the
wheels of patronage that make the Saudi political system work”.

There are many people in Saudi Arabia who have lost their fear of state
repression and prosecution, and one of the side effects of the economic
improvement may be that sections of the population begin to fight for
their rights. Out of this process it will be the emerging Saudi working
class that starts to put its stamp on the situation as it realises the
potential strength it has at its disposal.