Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Post Mosul Liberation Day 22 Aug 1 2017

Security and rebuilding were the top news in Mosul again.
Three IS elements made up of a handicapped man and two women attacked
a checkpoint killing a policeman in the Zinjali neighborhood in the west. The
man was killed and the two females arrested. The insurgents are still carrying
out sporadic operations inside the city with a mix of hidden elements in
tunnels and basements, and cells hiding out in the city.

As people are moving back into the western half unexploded
ordinance is proving an extreme danger. A family of eight was killed by an IED
inside a house. Iraqi and foreign sources believe it could take over a year to
remove most of these explosives.

A parliamentarian accused
commanders in the security forces (ISF) of taking bribes to allow militants to
escape Mosul. A few similar stories have come out before. The ISF does have
corruption problems so these reports could prove true.

Baghdad continued to complicate the security in Ninewa. The
3rd Federal Police Division has been given
control of Qayara to the southeast of Mosul and the 5th Division was
deployed between the
Fourth and Third Bridges along the Tigris in west Mosul. Security in Mosul and
Ninewa is being done by a variety of units from the police to the army’s 16th
Division to tribal Hashd units to the National Intelligence Agency. The Ninewa
government wants the provincial police to hold the entire security file, but
Baghdad has been dragging its feet on re-instating them. That has created the
current hodgepodge of forces to do the job, which has been called “chaotic” by
several officials and Hashd in the province because there is no coordination
between them, and many are in competition with each other. Adding the Federal
Police to the mix does not appear to be an improvement, but just adding to the
current problem.

The Ninewa Council made a new estimate
on the effects of the fighting on Mosul. It believes that 85% of the infrastructure
and government offices in West Mosul were damaged, versus 65-70% in the east.
In the Old City, the figure went up to 90% as that district saw the most
intense combat of the entire campaign. While east Mosul is being put back
together the west still lags behind because of the extent of the destruction.
As more studies are done the bill for rebuilding will continue to increase.

Two conferences will be held to try to raise funds for the
reconstruction of the liberated areas of Iraq. The first will happen in Washington,
and the second in Kuwait. The U.S. meeting
will have nearly 35 countries and the World Bank, and is supposed to happen soon.
The Kuwait conference will
occur at the start of next year and include the U.S., England, the European
Union, Asian countries, and some Gulf States. Baghdad has a ten-year $100
billion reconstruction plan in the works. Prime Minister Haidar Abadi
and an economic analyst however warned that Iraq may not be able to garner much
money from these meetings. Iraq is suffering a budget deficit due to low oil
prices, so without donations, grants and loans, it will not have funds for its
projects, which means many parts of Mosul and other areas of Iraq might never
be fully rebuilt anytime soon.

Several Hashd units carried
out a sweep in west Ninewa. They claimed they cleared 17 villages in the
process. This might have been a preparatory operation for the coming attack on
Tal Afar. Abadi has said
the plans are ready, and the forces are only waiting for his order.

Abadi claimed
a deadline had been set for the return of displaced (IDPs) to Mosul, but no
specifics were given on when that was. The Displacement Ministry announced
that approximately 35,000 IDPs returned, but 49,502 fled in July. People were
going back to both east and west Mosul. The figures have remained low so far,
especially to west Mosul because of destroyed homes, the lack of services, and
most importantly continued news of IS attacks. When people feel the city is safer
there is likely to be a flood of IDPs heading home.

SOURCES

AIN, “Abadi
announces the start of bombing of Tal Afar and does not expect large grants at
the Kuwait Conference [expanded],” 8/1/17

Kuwait's policy towards Iraq after 03 was mixed. First, it was the only Gulf State to welcome the invasion because it was afraid of Saddam. It also offered aid afterwards. At the same time, it's main concern was getting Iraq to pay reparations from the 90 invasion, which Iraq wanted to either end or lower. Kuwait also refused to open an embassy in Baghdad for years. The reparations and lack of embassy were big issues for Iraqis. Many Shiites also believe Kuwait like the rest of the Gulf States finance jihadists and the Islamic State.

But why has Kuwait emerged in recent years as the champion of Iraq and its reconstruction?Particularly given Kuwait is a Sunni Arab state championing the majority Shiite led government of Iraq?As you say - the reparations and lack of embassy were big issues, but they are an old story now. What has changed and why?

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Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com