Saturday, July 26, 2008

Yankees - Acquired Nady

New York Yankees - Acquired OF Xavier Nady and P Damaso Marte from the Pittsburgh Pirates for OF Jose Tabata, P Ross Ohlendorf, P George Kontos, P Phil Coke.

One would initially think that it was a weak haul for a hitter with an OPS+ of 142, but then again, the Yankees don’t get to acquire Nady’s season-to-date career year, just what’s coming. The Pirate offense has been surprisingly good this season, 2nd in the NL in runs scored, despite the infield being pretty terrible, thanks to the Outfield of Awesomeness and Ryan Doumit, who has hit too well this season for even the Pirates to be befuddled on how to continually screw him over. If the Pirates could have just found a second starting pitcher that wasn’t having a terrible season, they could have been seriously in contention right now.

Nady’s not going to continue to hit .330, but he can still contribute to a team that’s been forced by injuries to start Brett Gardner and organizational player Justin Christian in a prime offensive position. The Yankees sorely needed an upgrade and it was probably one of the better upgrades available that didn’t cost an arm and a leg. Marte helps the Yankees quite a bit on tactical basis - the only lefty reliever that has pitched for the Yankees this season is Billy Traber (and a game from Igawa).

I’m shocked to realize that Jose Tabata doesn’t turn 20 for a few weeks. Did they dragoon him into a Yankees uniform at the age of 8 or something? I swear it was like 1996 when they signed him, we’ve been hearing about him so long, The Yankees were really hoping that Tabata would start developing some power by now, but he just hasn’t. However, he’s still quite young and there’s hope for him. If he turns out, he should turn out big, and the Pirates never really have guys like that. The Pirates do have some time to found out about him, with Tabata not going to block another prospect from playing time - the youngest starter of the AA Altoona Curve is 24 this season. Ohlendorf has an ugly ERA this season, but he still has a very good fastball and a very good heavy sinker, just some control problems and a career riddled with lousy breaking pitches. George Kontos is kind of the stealth prospect of this trade and may actually end up being the best pitcher. Rather unheralded for a Yankee prospect, Kontos has a good fastball/slider, Kontos’s only weak spot at this point is his change and he’s probably ready to move to AAA. Coke’s the throw-in, with weaker stuff than the other pitchers, but on the plus side, the knock on him was that righties would crush some of his C+ pitches but he’s had success against them, though I doubt that would be the case in the majors.

All-in-all, I’d actually call this a pretty good trade for both teams. The Pirates did take quantity over quality, but for a change, the quantity actually has some upside to it and the Pirates are usually quite poor at picking up players that could be huge if they work out. The Yankees go for the pennant every year and just don’t have the organizational patience for too many projects.

Apparently, the package magically changed, with Kontos and Coke staying with the Yankees and the Yanks now sending Daniel McCutchen and Jeff Karstens. It seems that there was something in Kontos’s health record the Bucs didn’t like, so while I like a healthy Kontos better than McCutchen, I’d rather have a healthy McCutchen than a non-healthy Kontos. McCutchen’s got an average-ish fastball and a plus splitter.

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I would be happy if Nady met his ZiPS projection for the rest of 2008. If he does that, do the Yankees try to resign him after the season as a younger and likely slightly cheaper replacement for Abreu? Nady is an uninspiring fielder, but Abreu has become a terrible one.

If the Pirates could have just found a second starting pitcher that wasn't having a terrible season

Ooh, another chance to go on about my cause-du-jour.

Don't blame the pitchers, blame the team. The staff has the 2nd fewest Ks, the second most walks, the 3rd most HR and the most hits. The TEAM WHIP is 1.6 (insert "as bad as Jose Lima or Jeff Weaver at their worst" comment ... OK, here ya go, the entire staff is Jimmy Haynes). The ERA+ is 80 (hey, that's up a couple points!).

Anyway, the staff doesn't do a single thing well. And they keep getting hurt.

According to Cot's, Nady is arb-eligible for one more year; he signed with the Pirates in January for $3.35M for 2008. After this season he'll have just over five years of service time. I know Nady has had, so far, a great year. But how much could he cost for 2009 given his entire track record? Maybe $8M to $10M?

he does that, do the Yankees try to resign him after the season as a younger and likely slightly cheaper replacement for Abreu?

Maybe, but in spite of this year's #s, Nady is not the hitter Abreu is, of course. I have seen Nady a lot since he is a Pads' product. He does not seem like a guy you add long-term if you are the Yankees.

I know you've answered this probably 150 times Dan, so I apologize, but do the ZiPS projections take into account league quality?

Mostly agree with your analysis. In another thread I contrasted this with Eric Byrnes. Byrnes's career numbers are not quite as good as Nady's but, he also was a journeyman kind of corner outfielder with meh career stats who was having a career year at the age of ~30. last year, he was hitting .310 / .372 / .505 on this date. Don't you think the DBacks wish they had traded him for a "weak haul" of prospects rather than signing him to a 3/30 deal and trading Quentin...?

If he does that, do the Yankees try to resign him after the season as a younger and likely slightly cheaper replacement for Abreu?

Yes. I think they go to arb with him this year, and then see how he does. This should spell the end of Abreu's Yankees career. Damon LF, Nady RF, Matsui DH. The big issue will be whether they bring back Giambi, or go after Texeira. I'd rather spend the $$ on CC than Tex, but both may get wacky deals.

It seems strange to me that the Yanks and Pirates couldn't/wouldn't do something for Bay+Marte instead of Nady+Marte. The Pirates could have gotten another and better real prospect without losing too much in-year production and the Yanks would have probably felt safer with Bay instead of Nady for the short-to-long term.

It seems strange to me that the Yanks and Pirates couldn't/wouldn't do something for Bay+Marte instead of Nady+Marte.

I'd guess that the Yankees would have loved to have gotten Bay, but weren't willing to part with a "better real prospect" than Tabata. As it is, I would say this was a better deal for New York that it was for Pittsburgh.