The table below tracks annual changes in core PCE,
the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of
inflation. Yesterday
the Fed said inflation had moderated so I looked
up the data. Sure enough, core PCE peaked in
August and has moved lower the past two
months. ECRI's US-FIG is also lower.
In my December 2011 investment letter I wrote:

US-FIG dipped
lower to 99.2 in October from 99.7
in September. ECRI said, “After a brief
interruption, the USFIG has begun to
ease once again. Thus, U.S.
inflation
pressures are still in a cyclical downswing.”
The Fed believes the high inflation
(CPI at 3.5%) we see now is “transitory” and
will come down in this period of slower
economic growth. This should be the case as
long as we have high unemployment. The
Fed said it believes core (PCE) inflation
should be between 1.8% and 2.0% to reach
their mandate "to promote effectively the
goals of maximum employment,
stable prices, and moderate long-term interest
rates.”