White can play her five in 3 ways: 1. land on her 8; 2. hit on her 1; 3. jump in the enemy outfield with a back checker.Jumping is too passive.Hitting on the ace point is too committal. White puts all his eggs in one basket - the blitz.The middling play 13/8 24/21 is the best.

3.

Green

(5 3)

bar/20 13/10

Move 3 White

Pip: 149

Pip: 151

#

Ply

Move

Equity

1

3

24/20 13/5*/1

0.405

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

2

3

13/9(2) 9/5*/1

0.388 (-0.017)

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

*

3

3

13/5*(2)

0.368 (-0.037)

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

Alert: Joker (0.344)

Checker play

White can cover the blot or can make the good 5 point. Having said A and B with her Danish opening and her tempo hitting on the ace point, white needs to cover the ace point and say C here. It is a skirmish where every hit matters. If black hits in the enemy home, he can buy time to bring the bar point straggler to safety.

4.

Green

(5 1)

bar/24* 18/13

White

(5 1)

bar/20 21/20

5.

Green

(6 1)

13/7 8/7

White

(5 4)

24/20 13/8

6.

Green

(5 1)

13/7

White

(5 2)

13/8 13/11

7.

Green

(4 2)

24/18

White

(3 1)

8/5 8/7*

8.

Green

(3 3)

bar/22 7/4 6/3(2)

Move 8 White

Pip: 131

Pip: 126

#

Ply

Move

Equity

1

3

20/14 5/3*

0.040

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

2

3

11/3*

-0.093 (-0.133)

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

*

3

3

20/14 7/5

-0.115 (-0.155)

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

Alert: Blunder (0.155)

Checker play

White has 2 decisions to make: A. to hit on the 3 point or not to hit. B. to jump in the outfield or to bring a cheker for the home events.11/5 7/5 makes a stack of 5 men in her own board in the late middle game. Out of question. In such a case, white cannot play without a blot. Hitting becomes mandatory. In addition black has a home blot. Question A is answered easily. White must hit.Question B is more difficult and white made a mistake.With 3 men out of play on the enemy golden point, white would have some difficulty in her free movement and would need to roll (and do things) in perfect order: A. close her board quickly; B.extricate the restrcted 3 back checkers. If she fais to that in and exact order, she will be the underdog. If she jumps out with the 6, she is not very much afraid of a return shot, because of black's board and blot and she has the upper hand most of the time. In addition, if she is hit on the 14 point, she will have returns with 6 and 4.5/3* 20/14 is the right play.

9.

Green

(6 3)

22/13

White

(3 2)

14/9

Pip: 118

Pip: 117

10.

Green

Double

White

Take

Cube action equity

Alert: Wrong double

3-Ply

Money equity:

0.275

0.1% 1.3% 64.1% 35.9% 2.1% 0.1%

1.

No double

0.367

2.

Double, take

0.209

(-0.158)

3.

Double, pass

1.000

(+0.633)

Proper cube action: No double, take

20%

Cube action

Black hurries with the double because of the match score, but the race is even and she only has a small advantage due to the blockade. These positions are easy to play and evaluate (cube action). In money gameUsually (but not here) black would have a 15-30 point racing advantage. In a long race (say 120/100 pips), white would have a take most of the time, because with 13-15 pips deficit it would be right to take. The holding game gives additional chances to hit a blot or to make black bear in and off ineffeiciently.White's gwc would vary between 20-30 percent depending on the racing advantage and other factors as black's outer board (the landing bases) and white's board (the pen). If there are few or uncomfortable landing bases, it would be difficult for black to bear in safely. It is then more probable that she will give a shot. If the pen is compromised, is going to be compromised or is not likely to be good at the right time, then hitting a shot may not be enough for white to win.Perceive this holding game, and the other high anchor (4 or 7pt) holding games, as primarily a racing game with some holding features (hitting a shot or forcing the enemy to play inefficiently). The bar (7), the golden (5) and the silver (4) anchor can hardly be strangled by a blockade. This position is a litte untypical of the 5pt holding games, because of the 3 outer points of black. White does not have much chance to hit a blot. On the other hand black does not have an initial racing lead at all. The positional advantage and the roll can only bring black about 63% wins. It is early to double here.

11.

Green

(6 1)

13/7 3/2

Move 11 White

Pip: 118

Pip: 110

#

Ply

Move

Equity

1

3

9/3 6/3

-0.191

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

2

3

8/2 6/3

-0.203 (-0.012)

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

*

6

3

20/11

-0.254 (-0.063)

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

Alert: Blunder (0.063)

Checker play

Playing holding games is a nine to five job. Build your board and wait for a shot or maybe roll a good double. When the party with the anchor is about done building his board, he can think of breaking his anchor a turn or two before he is going to be forced to. It is the knack of the master to break anchor at the right time. The last very good description of this "pay now or pay later" problem is under the heading "The dormant phase" - p.96 of Bill Robertie's "Modern Backgammon". Before one can claim to be a Robertie, one should almost always stick to Rolling Stones: "never break" - (This Heart of Stone).In spite of the 3 black blots, it is a sin to break anchor here.

12.

Green

(3 1)

7/4 3/2

Alert: Anti-joker (0.332)

White

(3 2)

6/3 5/3

Alert: Anti-joker (0.446)

13.

Green

(6 4)

13/3

White

(6 1)

20/13

14.

Green

(2 1)

13/12* 3/1

White

(6 1)

bar/24* 11/5

Alert: Joker (0.619)

15.

Green

(2 1)

bar/24 12/10

White

(6 4)

24/14

Alert: Joker (0.364)

Move 16 Green

Pip: 92

Pip: 114

#

Ply

Move

Equity

1

3

8/4 7/5

-0.913

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

2

3

8/6 7/3

-0.920 (-0.007)

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

*

3

3

10/6 10/8

-0.938 (-0.025)

Simplified 3-ply, 50%.

Checker play

A nine to five job is still a job. One has to work. Black has one thing to do - build. She should only be careful not to slot 2, because white will then be more confident in her bear in.Not slotting and inner point is a mistake.

White

(3 1)

14/11 9/8

17.

Green

(4 2)

7/3 7/5

White

(6 5)

11/5 11/6

18.

Green

(6 4)

8/2 8/4

Pip: 77

Pip: 92

White

Double

19.

Green

Take

Cube action equity

3-Ply

Money equity:

0.703

0.0% 2.7% 83.9% 16.1% 0.2% 0.0%

1.

Redouble, take

0.976

2.

No redouble

0.935

(-0.041)

3.

Redouble, pass

1.000

(+0.024)

Proper cube action: Redouble, take

Cube action

A beautiful position. A perfectly timed redouble. And a take too. Perfect cube action by both sides! Kudos!