Saquon Barkley is going to break the NFL combine, but is he worth a top-10 pick?

The NFL has never seen a running back like Saquon Barkley. In a sport filled with physical freaks, the Penn State running back stands out. He’s an alien. Blessed with size, strength, speed, agility and toughness, and he’s about to put it all on display at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis.

Barkley stands at 6-foot and weighs 233 pounds. He’s reportedly been timed in the 40 at 4.38 seconds. He’s benched 225 pounds 30 times. His vertical leap is approaching the 40-inch mark. He can squat well over 500 pounds. After spending the last few months preparing for the combine, you can expect Barkley, a tireless worker by all accounts, to improve on all of those numbers in Indy.

Some context: No prospect weighing at least 220 pounds has run faster than a 4.45 40-yard dash and put up 25 bench press reps, per Pro Football Reference’s numbers, which date back to the 2000 NFL combine. Barkley will eclipse those numbers with ease.

He’s not just a workout warrior, either. Barkley’s tape is mouth-watering. The closest comparison to his running style is LeBron James in the open court. He’s powerful, agile and sees everything.

Barkley is much more than a runner, though. He was a major factor in Penn State’s pass game, both out of the backfield and split out wide.

When he stayed in the backfield to help in pass protection, Barkley was both willing and able to pick up blitzing linebackers.

When it comes to the running back position, Barkley is the perfect prospect. Browns coach Hue Jackson called him the best running back prospect he’s seen in 20 years. But is he worth a top-10 pick?

Is any running back worth a top-10 pick?

The advanced stats say no. Ben Baldwin of Fieldgulls.com wrote an illuminating piece arguing that teams should never spend a top-20 pick, much less a top-10 pick, on a running back. Baldwin points out that running efficiency doesn’t have a strong correlation with winning in today’s NFL, first-round running backs have a higher bust rate than other positions and backs taken in later rounds have produced at the same clip as those taken on Day 1.

I am staunchly opposed to taking a running back with a top pick, for most of the reasons listed above, but if I were going to take one in the top-10, Barkley would be the guy for the simple fact that he can make a significant impact outside of the run game. His receiving skills will allow teams to get creative with personnel packages and create mismatches all over the field. His blocking will buy his quarterback time on third downs when teams get creative with blitzes. And unlike most of these receiving backs, Barkley can be a workhorse who will thrive in any blocking scheme you put him in.

Barkley is a rare talent at the running back position. There are only three backs currently in the league who can transform an offense like Barkley will — Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and Todd Gurley — and none of those players compare to Barkley physically or were as polished as he is coming out of school.

Barkley is going to put on a show at the combine, but it will pale in comparison to what he’ll do on Sundays, no matter where he lands.

Saquon Barkley is going to break the NFL combine, but is he worth a top-10 pick?

Barkley will put on a show in Indy, but what can we expect on Sundays?

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