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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

Stocks progressed closer to the January highs this week. Investor's nerves over the steel and aluminum tariffs settled as U.S. allies were given exemptions eliminating worries of a trade war. A better than expected jobs report sparked a rally Friday putting the S&P 500 at its highs for the week at the close. The 313,000 jobs added in February marked the greatest gain in jobs since July of 2016. This was coupled with a slowed rate of wage growth to 2.6% from 2.9% in January. The numbers suggest economic growth in the U.S. with a lessor impact to labor cost keeping the rate of inflation at a more attractive pace.

Higher rates of inflation have been a worry for stocks and bonds; bonds interest payments lose their purchasing power while high inflation will put pressure on the Fed to increase interest rates at a higher pace than wanted by traders. The next FOMC meeting is in a couple weeks and with an expected a rate hike by the Fed, investors will be on their toes.

The S-fund outperformed the TSP funds this week with just under 4% in gains. The F-fund lagged this week with a loss of 0.11% as bonds fell on the jobs report.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 9th:

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) gapped up Friday following the jobs report. This pushed the index above falling resistance and up to the peak of late February. The index pressed past its 50 and 20-day EMAs intra-week. The C-fund was up 3.58% for the week.

The Wilshire 4500 Completion Index (S-fund) also pressed through its 50 and 20-day EMAs and continued past the late February peak and closer to January highs. The index did not produce an open gap like the S&P 500 giving less technical need for a pull-back. The S-fund outperformed the TSP funds with a gain 3.95% for the week.

$IEE (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped up early in the week before officially testing the 200-day EMA. The index did not break above its 20-day EMA which kept it from filling an open gap from February. The I-fund was up 2.47% for the week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) has been moving side ways the last couple of weeks but took another slight loss as it found resistance from a descending trading channel as well as its 20-day EMA. Bonds sold after the jobs report despite the report having evidence for a slower increase in inflation. Investors rather moved out of bonds and into stocks to join the rally. The F-fund was down 0.11% to lag the TSP funds with the only negative return.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.