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Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Quest for 2000- Brynn Harvey

Brynn Harvey is a hard-charging running back from Largo, Florida who, a couple of years ago, had the daunting task of filling the big shoes of his predecessor. You see, he followed the great Kevin Smith of UCF. His freshman year he showed some flashes of being able to be the next 'back for the Golden Knights if not the next incarnation of Kevin Smith.

Last year, Harvey made strides going from 519 yards and 1 touchdown all the way to 1109 yards and 14 touchdowns. Quite a progression in one year and hopefully his third year will yield even more production! With that said, here is a breakdown of the pros and cons on Brynn Harvey becoming the next 2000 yard rusher in college football:

Pros

Averaged 22 carries per game not including the game against Texas when he was rested

Returns 4 Offensive Line starters

1 game of 200+ yards

1 game of 40+ carries

Returns former starting quarterback (R. Calabrese) and top receivers

100+ yard games- 5 20+ carry games- 6 Avg. Yards per game- 92

Good defense allows him to run deep into games

Returns starting fullback

Analysis: Harvey plays in a workhorse back system under George O'Leary. It is no surprise that the coach loves his 'backs to tote the ball and tote it a lot. Harvey received a fair amount of carries as witnessed by his 22 carry average. He returns a former starting quarterback in Rob Calabrese but more importantly some very talented receivers in Kamar Aiken and A.J. Guyton. He also returns 4 offensive line starters.

Other little things that could be helpful to Harvey reaching the coveted 2000 yard plateau are that his team plays pretty good defense in the offensive minded Conference USA. This means that he will continue to run the ball deep into games. Also UCF returns their top fullback which is pivotal in blasting open holes for Harvey to scoot through.

Cons

Low YPC- Getting carries but not doing much with them

Inflated stats against bad competition

Offensive Coordinator

Analysis: Harvey did indeed get his carries but for the most part did very little with them. His average YPC (Yard Per Carry) were a meager 4.2 yards. Also Harvey only produced against weak competition. Note that in the five games that Harvey surpassed 100 yards they were against Samford (111 yards), Memphis (219 yards), Houston (139 yards), Tulsa (129 yards), and UAB (130 yards). Statistically, those teams had some of the softest defenses in the country. Against respectable defensive teams such as Southern Miss, East Carolina, Miami, and Rutgers, Harvey ran for 37, 71, 25, and 32 yards, respectively. Even against Marshall, whose defense was terrible, he only gained 47 yards. Not to mention he didn't even play against Texas. Lastly, UCF just got a new offensive coordinator which could spell doom for Harvey's chances for 2000 yards. The OC is Charlie Taaffe who comes from the Canadian Football League's Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Aside from the fact that a Tiger-Cat is a made up animal, the CFL is known for its passing and not for workhorse running backs. However, much like the situation at UConn, bringing in a new OC did not really seem to affect Harvey's carries.

Overall Analysis:

If UCF sticks to its run-first game plan, Brynn Harvey could make a jump in production and will need to perform much more consistently to make it to 2000 yards. Harvey is a hard runner who has the build to take the carries. He is not overly elusive which hurts his yards per carry but he does wear down defenses. Harvey is still someone to consider on draft day although you may have to wait to see how he performs.