Sentiment for US equities has further neutralized and now marks the highest level since mid-February 2020 (market high in the S&P 500). One of the minimum conditions for an end to the recovery movement has thus been met. Although the slight underinvestment in the market still provides support, the lack of medium-term confidence for equities is increasingly becoming a burden.

The corona crisis is really throwing the economy and our society into turmoil. An age of "disruption" seems to have arrived. Obviously, investors also expect major changes in our monetary system. On the one hand, gold benefits from this, as a traditional "safe haven" in currency crises. What is new is that digital currencies are also coming into focus. The basic strategic confidence for Bitcoins is rising to an all-time high!

]]>Sun, 24 May 2020 08:44:22 +0000Are crude oil prices surprisingly positive in summer?http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/are-crude-oil-prices-surprisingly-positive-in-summer.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/are-crude-oil-prices-surprisingly-positive-in-summer.htmlFor the bulls in the crude oil market there was not much reason to be happy in 2020. Not only in the wake of the Co-rona crisis did prices come under heavy pressure. There was even a "singularity" in the US oil grade WTI at the end of April, when prices fell below the USD 0 mark on one day. But now there are signs of a chance of recovery.
]]>Wed, 20 May 2020 08:58:44 +0000sentix Survey results (20-2020)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-20-2020.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-20-2020.htmlSurprisingly bad sentiment

In the course of the week, the correction in equities has created an interesting constellation of sentiment. The sentiment values are tilting downwards again, the bias is holding its ground. In this issue we look at what this means. Equally interesting is the development of the strategic bias in EUR-USD. This is likely to put pressure on the positioning of investors who are currently positioned per euro in the long term. New lows in EUR-USD are therefore more likely.

]]>Sun, 17 May 2020 09:13:04 +0000Retail sector with relative strengthhttp://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/retail-sector-with-relative-strength.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/retail-sector-with-relative-strength.htmlThe corona crisis is having a major impact on the stationary retail trade and manufacturers of the products sold there. Looking at data from platforms such as hystreet.com, customer frequency, for example in German cities, is still well below pre-crisis levels, despite the relaxation steps that have now been taken.
]]>Thu, 14 May 2020 08:41:54 +0000sentix Survey results (19-2019)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-19-2019.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-19-2019.htmlDepression causes paralysis

The sentix risk radar, which systematically evaluates various risk sub-components in investor and price behaviour, still indicates opportunities in shares and crude oil. Although the tailwind from sentiment and positioning has softened somewhat (at the market low in mid-March 2020 the Z-score was +2!) Nevertheless, it is clear where the markets are drawing the strength for the price increase from. The "wall of worry" is big.

Since mid-February, fear has been in investors' limbs. Since then, sentiment has been in the deep red range. The danger is increasing from week to week that a brief fear reflex will turn into a chronic strain, which will have a massive impact on basic confidence and cause lasting damage to investments, consumption and the spending climate. The drop in the strategic equity bias is a serious indication of this.

]]>Sun, 03 May 2020 10:39:44 +0000Defensive positioning supports equitieshttp://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/defensive-positioning-supports-equities.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/defensive-positioning-supports-equities.htmlDue to the fact that the March plunge was strong and fast, even the current price rally does not lead to a complete elimination of the oversold market situation. Investors mistrust the price development, which can be seen in the negative sentiment. As a result, there is still further potential for recovery.
]]>Wed, 29 Apr 2020 05:13:43 +0000sentix Survey results (17-2020)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-17-2020.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-17-2020.htmlFurther erosion of the strategic bias in equities

Investor confidence continues to erode, and this week the bias for Euro area stocks has reached a new all-time low! This shows that time is currently working against the stock markets. The restrictive measures to contain the Corona crisis are increasingly viewed critically. Only the bad mood and the defensive positioning are still preventing a further price slump. But for how much longer?

]]>Sun, 26 Apr 2020 08:47:27 +0000EBI data already publishedhttp://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/Database-news/ebi-daten-bereits-veroeffentlicht.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/Database-news/ebi-daten-bereits-veroeffentlicht.htmlDue to an error on our part, the EBI data was published on the Bloomberg platform even before the end of the blocked period. For this reason, we immediately released the data in our database and the blocked period has been lifted for this publication.

The commentary will be published as scheduled on Tuesday, 8.00h CEST.

]]>Sun, 26 Apr 2020 07:10:20 +0000The confidence in real estate is declininghttp://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/Special-research/the-confidence-in-real-estate-is-declining.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/Special-research/the-confidence-in-real-estate-is-declining.htmlOn the surface, the corona crisis affects the leisure and tourism industry in particular. Investors in real estate still think they are on the relatively safe side. But the sentix Styles indices show that the real estate sector is also being viewed increasingly critically. Are there still major negative effects here?
]]>Wed, 22 Apr 2020 10:02:09 +0000sentix Survey results (16-2020)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-16-2020.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-16-2020.htmlConfidence is withdrawn from the stock markets

Investors remain defensive for the time being with equities. The institutional investors in particular have recently been stepping on the brakes. The risk level indicator explains the positioning behaviour. This restraint is now generating performance pressure as prices rise and, in conjunction with sentiment, is supporting the current rally of hope. If investors buy now, this would mean a "buy without conviction". One thing is certain: the bias continues to erode.

]]>Sun, 19 Apr 2020 10:21:50 +0000Politics is very trustworthy, but...http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/Special-research/politics-is-very-trustworthy-but.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/Special-research/politics-is-very-trustworthy-but.htmlThe measures taken by governments worldwide to combat the corona pandemic through decisive action and excessive fiscal and monetary measures are viewed positively by investors. But there is one area where concerns are growing!
]]>Wed, 15 Apr 2020 11:15:33 +0000sentix Survey results (15-2020)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-15-2020.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-15-2020.htmlEaster edition

We wish all sentix friends and their families Happy Easter! Stay healthy and confident!

The situation on the international financial markets remains bleak. The news about the corona virus is dominating the day's events, and the economic lockdown is leading to great uncertainty. But on the financial markets it is not (only) the present that counts, but what comes into focus next. On the one hand, there is the very expansive fiscal policy (bond market strained). On the other hand there is the hope for an end to the lockdown!

]]>Sun, 05 Apr 2020 09:07:17 +0000Contrarian opportunities with crude oilhttp://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/contrarian-opportunities-with-crude-oil.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/contrarian-opportunities-with-crude-oil.htmlCrude oil has been in free fall in recent weeks. The Brent spot price has not fallen by 50% within a month since 1983. What does this mean for investors?
]]>Tue, 31 Mar 2020 09:36:38 +0000sentix Survey results (13-2020)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-13-2020.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-13-2020.htmlProfessionals are on the brakes

The main finding from investor behavior this week is that the strategic bias is eroding for many equity markets. This is particularly striking for US equities. Only the China bias is resisting this gravity. A historical comparison shows that these different developments have occurred again and again, and even out of time. This will also be the case in the Corona crisis. In the end, China is not an island either.

]]>Sun, 29 Mar 2020 11:03:21 +0000April, Aprilhttp://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/april-april.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/april-april.html"Just an April Fool's joke" - how we would like to say that this year in relation to the Corona virus. But the virus, and even more so the economic effects are unfortunately absolutely real. Will April now bring the hoped-for reversal of the equity market?
]]>Tue, 24 Mar 2020 09:41:02 +0000sentix Survey results (12-2020)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-12-2020.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-12-2020.htmlWaiting for the "rally of hope"

The mood for stocks remains depressed. In view of past experience, a technical countermovement is more than overdue. Now that the maturity of futures is also behind us, it would now be time for such a recovery. But what is normal in these times? In any case, the robust strategic bias of investors is beginning to crumble. Investors are realising that the hope of a quick return to normality was probably deceptive.

Sentiment for equities had recently fallen sharply. This week we are measuring a slight increase in sentiment for US equities of 8 percentage points, even though the absolute value of -34 percentage points still remains in bearish territory. Surprisingly, investors are showing confidence as they look to the medium term. There are some signs of easing - at least in the short term.

]]>Sun, 15 Mar 2020 17:45:00 +0000Welcome to Absurdistanhttp://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/welcome-to-absurdistan.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/welcome-to-absurdistan.htmlAnyone who thought that the bond markets had already experienced their greatest possible exaggeration in the summer of 2019 has recently been proven wrong in the wake of the Corona crisis. We would not have thought that the yield on 10-year Bunds could once again reach a new all-time low. For US bonds we were somewhat more opti-mistic (and therefore had a long position in our fund here), but a fall in interest rates from 1.5% to 0.5% within a month was beyond our imagination.
]]>Tue, 10 Mar 2020 12:49:25 +0000sentix Survey results (10-2020)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-10-2020.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-10-2020.htmlAll-time lows in equity sentiment

The situation is becoming more and more extreme: We are measuring an extremely high level of pessimism, particularly with regard to equities and crude oil. The sentiment barometers for stocks in Euroland and Japan even mark historic all-time lows! On the other hand, it is bonds and precious metals that make investors cheer in the crisis. But their bias is eroding and signals selling pressure. It is astonishing that investors are keeping their bias high for equities in the medium term. The reliance on the central banks is once again high.

]]>Sun, 08 Mar 2020 10:54:04 +0000Bonds run hothttp://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/bonds-run-hot.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/bonds-run-hot.htmlIn the course of the great uncertainty about the spread of the corona virus and the resulting economic consequences, shares have recently come under severe pressure. At the same time, investors have once again sought out safer havens. A wise decision?
]]>Wed, 04 Mar 2020 10:50:37 +0000sentix Survey results (09-2020)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-09-2020.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-09-2020.htmlBetween fear and panic

The sentix indicators were probably one of the few indicators that had issued a clear warning on the stock markets. However, we were also surprised by the force with which stocks fell globally. Now the opposite situation has arisen. We can measure not only high volatility, but also very negative sentiment. This opens up short-term pull-back opportunities. But what are the medium-term price prospects for equities?

]]>Sun, 01 Mar 2020 10:07:41 +0000The ides of Marchhttp://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/the-ides-of-march.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/the-ides-of-march.htmlThe "Ides of March", the anniversary of Julius Caesar's death, are also a special date on the financial markets. Often around this date (March 15th of a year) important trend changes or acceleration phases in existing trends take place. This can be seen in the seasonal charts of stocks, currencies and bonds.
]]>Tue, 25 Feb 2020 08:08:57 +0000sentix Survey results (08-2020)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-08-2020.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-08-2020.htmlWeak strategic confidence continues to weigh heavily on equities

In the course of the week, investors' concerns about the spread of the corona virus have increased significantly. This is mainly due to the fact that there are two new areas of high numbers of infection, South Korea and Italy. Drastic measures to contain the epidemic would cause further severe damage to the global economy. In any case, investors' basic confidence continues to decline sharply, reinforcing the tendency to reduce equity positions.

]]>Sun, 23 Feb 2020 10:41:18 +0000Trump no longer the political nightmarehttp://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/Special-research/trump-no-longer-the-political-nightmare.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/Special-research/trump-no-longer-the-political-nightmare.htmlThe latest sentix policy barometer reveals that investors no longer see the person of the US president as a burden on capital market development. The partial agreement in the trade dispute has also contributed to this.
]]>Wed, 19 Feb 2020 11:58:06 +0000sentix Survey results (07-2020)http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-07-2020.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/sentix-survey-results-07-2020.htmlEquities: No good news, bias rushes down

Since last Monday it has been clear that sentix economic expectations are being dampened for the first time after three consecutive rises. For the region Asia ex Japan (China) the decline is even more pronounced than in the other regions of the world. If economic expectations follow the decline in the Baltic Dry index, this could mean further difficulties. The stock markets (CSI 300) have so far reacted to the clouding only to a limited extent. The strategic equity bias is clearly collapsing globally.

Equities: The fear quickly disappeared again

The "Corona fears" have dissipated within a week. The development in the fight against the virus encourages investors that the negative consequences for the economy will be limited. Sentiment for US equities, for example, has risen by an impressive 45 percentage points. The contrary buy signal to the previous week is thus void, the market must now think about the strategic potential of stocks. The bias is slightly declining, but there is no sell-signal for US equities yet.

]]>Sun, 09 Feb 2020 15:10:18 +0000Is the worst already over?http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/is-the-worst-already-over.html
http://www.sentix.de/index.php/en/sentix-Weekly/is-the-worst-already-over.htmlWill the corona virus plunge the global economy into recession? Are further restrictions in everyday life to be expected in the short term? And how will governments and central banks react?

These are just some of the current uncertainties facing investors. What is the mood on the markets and how should one act now in the portfolio? This is the question we are looking into in the current "indicator in focus" issue.