Five-Minute Scout: Like Aztecs, Sooners will dare KU to make outside shots

3 Strengths

• Shooting: The Sooners are almost exactly on the NCAA percentages when it comes to the number of close shots, 2-point jumpers and 3-point jumpers they shoot, according to Hoop-Math.com. So why the incredible offense (14th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency)? The simplest answer is that coach Lon Kruger has loaded his team with talented shooters. OU ranks 85th nationally in 2-point jumpshot percentage (38.4 percent) and 37th in 3-point accuracy (38.5 percent) while playing a blazing pace (sixth-fastest offensive possession length, according to KenPom).

• Free throws: Oklahoma has a nice mix of drawing fouls (83rd in free-throw rate) and making the shots once it gets to the line (61st in free-throw percentage, 73.2 percent). The Sooners get 24 percent of their total offense from free throws, which ranks as the 100th-highest mark nationally.

• Avoiding turnovers: OU is the third straight opponent KU has faced with good ball security. The Sooners give it away on just 16.8 percent of their possessions (75th nationally), and even with a fast pace, I'd be surprised if Oklahoma made it to 15 turnovers.

3 Weaknesses

• Defense, in general: OU doesn't have a glaring weakness defensively, but it doesn't have a real strength either. The Sooners rank between 130th and 165th in each of these measures: effective field-goal percentage defense (130th), turnover percentage (161st), defensive rebounding percentage (163rd) and defensive free-throw rate (148th). Playing a small lineup helps keep OU's offense efficient, but the tradeoff is that Kruger has to get creative by mixing up defenses to try to hold other teams down. The Sooners rank 176th in adjusted defensive efficiency, which puts them ninth in the conference and ahead of only Texas Tech (182nd).

• Allowing 3-pointers: Oklahoma's sagging defense has opened up plenty of opportunities for long-range shots. Thirty-eight percent of opponents' shots against the Sooners have been 3s, which is the 41st-highest split nationally. Those teams have shot just 31.7 percent on those tries (NCAA average is 34.1 percent), but studies suggest that 3-point percentages are rarely controlled by defenses and usually are more random than many coaches believe.

• Transition defense: According to Hoop-Math.com, OU is allowing an effective field-goal percentage of 59.1 percent in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, which ranks 298th nationally. The Sooners' main struggles have been inside, as they've failed to keep teams away from the rim (52.8 percent of opponents' shots have been layups/dunks/tipins in transition) while also struggling to defend those close shots (63.7 percent field-goal percentage).

3 Players to Watch

• Six-foot-7 forward Cameron Clark (No. 2) has gone from role player to offensive go-to guy after taking over the 4 spot from the graduated Romero Osby. The senior has become a remarkably efficient scorer (1.19 points per possessions used) while still taking on a huge offensive load (putting up 29 percent of OU's shots while he's in, 139th nationally). Clark has three main strengths: 1. He almost never turns it over; 2. He's great at drawing fouls (5.4 whistles drawn per 40 minutes) and making his free throws (83 percent); 3. He's a great jump-shooter, putting in 44.9 percent of his 2-point jumpshots and 47.4 percent of his select 3s (18-for-38).

• Be sure to pay attention to 6-foot guard Jordan Woodard (No. 10) for his one standout skill: an ability to draw fouls. The freshman is quick off the dribble, picking up 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes (33rd nationally) while posting the sixth-best free-throw rate (free throws shot per 100 field goals) in the nation. He's also a 77-percent free-throw shooter, meaning those foul shots aren't wasted. Woodard also is a good passer (top 200 in assist rate) but a horrible 2-point shooter, as he's made just 38 percent from inside the arc. He's especially struggled at the rim in transition, where he's made just 4 of 16 attempts.

• Six-foot-8 forward Ryan Spangler (No. 0) has done a nice job of settling into OU's role of offensive role player/dirty-worker on defense. The sophomore is a good rebounder on both ends (top 22o in both offensive and defensive rebound percentage) while providing some shot-blocking presence for the Sooners (4.4 percent block percentage; 286th nationally). He also has avoided fouls, picking up just 3.6 whistles per 40 minutes. Offensively, he's only going to shoot it when he gets it close ... and when he does, he's going to make it. Three-fourths of his shots come at the rim, and he's made a team-high 74.3 percent in that location. As you might expect, he gets to the free-throw line his fair share as well, though he's only a 57-percent shooter there.

Prediction

Remember how San Diego State packed its players in the lane and tried to force KU to make shots from the perimeter? Expect that same sort of defensive strategy from the Sooners on Wednesday.

There are two main differences: 1. SDSU relied on its athleticism with a man defense, while OU will be more likely to try to confuse KU with different zone looks; 2. SDSU cut off most transition opportunities, whereas the Sooners have been known to allow teams to get good shots if they run.

Expect an up-and-down, high-scoring game with plenty of jumpers made on both ends.

The key for KU will be chasing OU's small lineup to get out to shooters, an area where the Jayhawks showed improvement against San Diego State.

This one certainly won't be easy for KU, but I think the Jayhawks get enough stops to win in a shootout.

Kansas 84, Oklahoma 77

Hawk to Rock

I need a strong player in transition that can hit some 3s. The best fit? KU point guard Naadir Tharpe, who is second among KU's rotation players in transition shooting (73.7 percent effective field-goal percentage) and also KU's best 3-point shooter (40 percent). Tharpe, who is KU's best passing guard, also should have lots of opportunities for assists in a transition-filled, high-possession game.

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