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Friday, February 12, 2016

Why I believe in Planet Nine.

In my last post I went into detail on ways in which our
Planet Nine hypothesis could be wrong, and I suggested for you, if you’d like
to be a Planet Nine skeptic, which you’re encouraged to be, what new
observations you should be looking for before you start to believe it yourself.
Here, I’m going to tell you why I already am a believer in Planet Nine and why
maybe you should be too.

As we’ve discussed, the Planet Nine hypothesis was initially
developed to explain one simple phenomenon: the alignment of the most distant
objects in the Kuiper belt. The existence of that alignment looks pretty
compelling, but even when you calculate things like a 0.007% chance that it
could happen due to chance you still worry about the fact that there are only 6
objects that you’re talking about. Still, Konstantin and I worked on this for
about a year until, by about late last summer, we had a nice comprehensive
theory which could explain how a massive planet on an elongated orbit could
capture equally orbitally-elongated Kuiper belt objects into protected
mean-motion resonances. It was a fun result with some cute physics to it, as no
one had really considered the effect of such extreme planetary eccentricities
on populations of small objects before. It’s always a good day when you learn
something new about the ways in which planetary physics can work.

The whole point of Planet Nine was to explain the orbital alignment of these six objects. The number of other phenomena that Planet Nine also explains -- essentially by accident -- is astonishing.

A particularly satisfying aspect of the hypothesis was that
it neatly and eloquently explained the peculiar orbit of Sedna.I have written elsewhere on what is peculiar
about Sedna’s orbit and why it demands an explanation, and I have spent 12
years searching for solutions to Sedna’s peculiar orbit, and here was an
explanation where we hadn’t even been looking for one. In short, Sedna is
peculiar because it has been pulled away from the Kuiper belt by something. And
to be pulled away from the Kuiper belt there needs to be something beyond the
Kuiper belt to do the pulling. Back when we discovered Sedna, we proposed that
perhaps that something was a planet! Or a passing star! Or the cluster of stars
that the sun was born in! We didn’t really know. With only a single object
there were more possibilities than answers. But as we continued surveying the
outer solar system and found no new bright planets out there, we gradually
settled into the view point that the most likely explanation was that Sedna had
been pulled away from the Kuiper belt by the combined effect of the nearby
stars that formed along with the Sun 4.5 billion years ago. This proposition
was exciting: Sedna would be a fossil record of the birth of the Sun itself,
and finding more of them which teach us about that time period.

Now, however, we have a simpler explanation. If a planet is
forcing the most distant objects into alignment, it will also take these most
distant objects and periodically pull them away from the Kuiper belt before
pushing them back in. In fact, the Planet Nine hypothesis demands that objects like Sedna, and also 2012 VP113, a more
recently discovered by similarly odd object, exist. After 12 years of searching
for the explanation for Sedna we found it by trying to explain something else
entirely.

Interesting side note:
As I was writing this post I noticed something that I hadn’t before. It’s not
just Sedna and 2012 VP113: all of the
distant objects which are pulled even a little bit away from the Kuiper are in our cluster (specifically, if you look at
all objects with semimajor axis>100 AU and perihelion > 42 AU).Wow.

That’s not bad. As a scientist, you would love to form a
hypothesis that makes predictions that turn out to be true. That makes you
begin to believe in your hypothesis. In this case, we didn’t predict the existence
of Sedna and then go find it, but rather we knew about Sedna and accidentally
came up with a solution. That’s more of a two-birds-with-one-stone situation
than a prediction, I think. Still, we were quite pleased.While previous speculation about planets
beyond Neptune had struggled to find viable explanations for even single
phenomena, we had come up with a relatively rigorous theory which naturally
explained two seemingly unrelated phenomena.

At this point I think that Konstantin and I were mentally
ready to publish a paper with a conclusion something like “here’s a nice theory
which explains two different things and hey it’s even quite plausible!”

What happened next is what made me go from finding the
explanation plausible to finding the explanation likely. While sitting in my
office looking at the outputs of our gravitationally simulations, Konstantin
and I realized that Planet Nine had another major effect that we hadn’t
anticipated. Some of the objects with very distant elongated orbits had their
orbits twisted so that instead of being more or less oriented along with the
disk of the rest of the solar system, they were essentially perpendicular to
it. And, when they happened, instead of being lined up with the other distant
objects, their orbits swung off to the left or to the right by nearly 90
degrees. I described these orbits as “wings” because that’s how they looked in
the simulations.

Objects with perpendicular orbits? I remember when one was
discovered a few years ago. It was so unusual that it was nicknamed “Drac,” in
honor of Dracula’s ability to climb on walls. Or something like that. I was
quite excited to quickly look up the orbital parameters of Drac and see if its
orbit corresponded to the location of the wings, but, to my chagrin, Drac was
the wrong sort of object. I had remembered correctly that Drac was
perpendicular, but its orbit did not go nearly far enough from the sun to be
affected by Planet Nine. And it was not even pointing in the right direction. The
origin of Drac was still a mystery, but it didn’t seem connected to Planet Nine
(oh but it is; more later!).

While Konstantin and I were still sitting in my office,
disappointed by Drac, I thought to look at the complete database of all of the
object discovered in the outer solar system, and, to my surprise, there was a
collection of objects that were not
part of the Kuiper belt that we had overlooked. These were object which, though
though were quite elongated and went to great distances, traveled far inside the orbit of Neptune – coming
nearly to the orbit of Jupiter in some cases – before swinging back out to the
distant reaches of Planet Nine. We had ignored these objects previously because
we knew that when objects came into the giant planet region their orbits would
be modified by interactions with the planets. What we hadn’t anticipated is
that objects coming in on perpendicular orbits would have much less of a chance
to have their orbits modified. Our simulations showed that objects with distant
elongated perpendicular orbits which came close to the giant planets still
maintain their alignment to the wings.

When we realized this, Konstantin stay riveted in his chair
in my office while I plotted the locations of these objects which we had
overlooked. There are 5 of them. I told him, “If these are right where we
predict they should be my head is going to explode.” I plotted them. Four are
on one of the wings, the fifth is on the other wing. Right as predicted. My
head did not actually explode, I think, but it is possible that my jaw hit the
floor. We were both silent for a minute, and Konstantin said, in a semi-amazed
voice, “This is actually real, isn’t it?”

The distant objects with orbits perpendicular to the solar system were predicted by the Planet Nine hypothesis. And then found 5 minutes later.

Yeah. I think it’s real. As Konstantin later said, “It’s
like killing two birds with one stone and not even realizing there was a third
in the tree and killing it, too.” The existence of the elongated perpendicular
Centaurs – as those objects are called – was a pure prediction that was
dramatically confirmed. Sadly, the rest of the world didn’t get to participate
in the drama, as it all took place over the course of about five minutes in my
office last fall, but trust me on this one: the drama was there.

And Drac, which had been such a disappointment? Once we
started looking we realized that our gravitational simulations create Drac,
too. Sometimes, when the elongated perpendicular Centaurs do get too close to giant planet, that planet pulls their orbit a
little close, and also swings the orbit around randomly. Another Drac is born.
The Planet Nine hypothesis requires
the existence of objects with orbits like Drac, which otherwise had no
plausible explanation.

Does that make four (five?)
birds yet? Hard to keep count.

Here, then, is the summary of my reactions to each of the
four (now five) things explained by
Planet Nine

The existence of Planet Nine predicts the
existence of elongated distant perpendicular Centaurs in specific locations and
they are then found to exist. Holy cow.
Planet Nine is real!?!?!

The Planet Nine hypothesis explains the unusual
orbit of Drac and requires that objects with orbits like that will exist: Of course it does.

The Planet Nine hypothesis explains why all of
the distant objects which have been pulled away from the Kuiper belt are
equally clustered: Any vestigial doubts
have vanished.

At this point my main question is “what unusual phenomenon
in the Kuiper belt does Planet Nine not explain?”
(We have, regretfully, come to the conclusion that Planet Nine cannot account
for the parting of the Red Sea or the waning of the ice ages, though both of
those possibilities have been suggested to us multiple times).

So I believe. But it’s OK if you’re not ready to believe.
Unlike some hypotheses, this one has a definite proof. We have to go find it.
We will. I have very little doubt that we will.

Mike, what if you had the ultimate absurd scenario whereby Neptune and P9 were in some kind of resonant orbital "tag-team" situation (like Jupiter and Saturn)? What would have to happen for the two planets to be jointly responsible for the Kuiper Cliff anomaly?

Assuming it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility, would it help or hurt the possibility of an orbital resonance situation, given Neptune's current location in its orbit, if P9 were currently located in the "blinding light" of the Milky Way in its orbit, especially since you've already eliminated vast sections of the night sky by virtue of the various night-sky surveys you've searched?

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Mike, thank you for sharing all of the fascinating technical subtleties behind this awesome prediction with the non-scientist laymen such as myself! I look forward to each and every new posting of yours with bated breath as they say! Now where has that dang Planet Nine gone to, huh!

Over the long term, this looks very like a process of evaporation and condensation of KBOs, from and to their condensed phase in the general population, induced by Planet Nine. Is this an accurate way of looking at the dynamics?

Maybe? If PN was ejected and settled into orbit early on before the Sun had left our birth cluster, it sets the ground for an early JS resonance.

[I have put a comment in an earlier thread on how the latter could alleviate the tension with the existing, but scant, geological and biological record of early Earth.

Early zircons (> 3.5 Ga) don't show any impact stress fractures. And there are putative fossils older than 4.1 Ga now. Though It can take from years to never to ascertain their biological origin, need more material and context both.

In both cases it is hard to see where any putative massive ocean evaporators fits in, something that current Nice models (well, maybe not Nice 2.0) can suggest.

Oh, there are alternatives, there always is in such open questions. But the more likely explanation could be that the JS resonance happened before the Moon formed.]

Comet orbits? Kreutz family heads in from the direction of Canis Major which isn't very far from the aphelion of P9.

I recall some animations of populations of asteroids stirred up by Jupiter into weird resonances… See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yt1qPCiOq-8 Room for a similar affect for P9?

Pioneer 10 is headed in the Orion/Taurus region but they lost the signal in 2003 and it's only some 80 AU out. It'll take a very long time to get out to 1200AU.. but then when would it start to feel and affect and the signal would be far weaker then…. but is it worth it for someone to figure out how to recover the signal?

The Orion/Taurus direction is also the direction of the tail of the heliosphere. Most of the time P9 would be entirely beyond the solar wind but maybe it would pick up some activity if some turbulent mix of ISM and the solar wind were to cross it.

"The Damocloids are a group of unusual asteroids, recently enrolling a new member of 2010 EJ104. The dynamical evolution for the Damocloids may uncover a connection passage from the Main Belt, the Kuiper Belt and the scattered disk beyond. According to our simulations, two regions may be considered as possible origin of the Damocloids: the scattered disk, or a part of Oort cloud which will be perturbed to a tran- sient region locating between 700 AU and 1000 AU.…"

"all of the distant objects which are pulled even a little bit away from the Kuiper are in our cluster (specifically, if you look at all objects with semimajor axis>100 AU and perihelion > 42 AU). Wow. "

A search using those parameters gives me five objects, all with a>200.

Is the absence of q>42 among the objects with 100<a<200 significant? Should the mechanism proposed for raising the perihelion of 2004 XR190 work in this range?

Pluto's inclination is simply due to Neptune's perturbation. Triton seems explainable as a captured formerly binary KBO. Uranus I'm less certain about. But, overall, much of the solar system seems explainable just with the local planets. It's the weird ones that have no other obvious explanation that we're interested. The tilt of the sun with respect to the eight planets? Definitely could be caused by Planet Nine (though there are other explanations), for example.

"As I was writing this post I noticed something that I hadn’t before. It’s not just Sedna and 2012 VP113: all of the distant objects which are pulled even a little bit away from the Kuiper are in our cluster (specifically, if you look at all objects with semimajor axis>100 AU and perihelion > 42 AU). Wow."

Yes, wow! I was wondering about that from the (on this point scrappy) illustrations hinting at all having a perihelion outside the main Kuiper belt. But since it wasn't mentioned I assumed there were exceptions and didn't ask.

First rule of questions: never assume.

So you just know I now have a question. =D I do hope someone tries to estimate the current uncertainty of PN testing?

It was ~ 5 sigma by my back-of-the-envelope uninformed guesstimates before. Now I think it may indeed be passing into 7 sigma territory of the extraordinary evidence needed for an extraordinary claim: " Any vestigial doubts have vanished."

I don't know; when you start to say something like "5 sigma" or "7 sigma" you are speaking in a very specific statistical manner with a very specific statistical meaning. I think there is no way to calculate meaningful statistics for much of the Planet Nine predictions in a sufficiently rigorous way to give sigma any meaning.

Do your simulations provide any insight as to what general range of conditions would have caused planet nine to be ejected entirely from the solar system rather than entering its current predicted orbit?

Wow, the way you describe both of your efforts and dawning realizations with each additional piece of the puzzle bolstering the prediction, is palpable, thankyou for sharing the time to take us all through it. Good-hunting.

What a pleasure of a blog to read on my 70th birthday. I keep hoping for as many discoveries like this in my lifetime, of course tops on the list, evidence of life outside of Earth. Your blog is so well written for the general reader, it is a great contribution to the spread of knowledge, which is so important, and becoming so sadly neglected in our society. Thanks for your contributions.

Mike, FWIW, I think the comments in your blog are broken. As I hit preview, it went to a page to confirm the Google+ identity I was logged it, which I confirmed, but when it came back to Preview, it reverted to "Unknown". Glancing back thru comments, I see all unknowns, except for your posts. Ergo, using not even the advanced math you use in your work, but my intuitive computer programming and web design troubleshooting skills from 35 years work, I suspect your comments implementation needs investigation. Just saying there is a good chance.

If I remember correctly, the blog is Blogger, a web service owned by Google. There's nothing the owner can do about how the software works. Might try clearing your browser cache. You could have some bad cookies. That's usually the reason when Google's identity scheme gets weird.

Is there any orbital distance from the sun where a Pluto-mass object (made of rock and not ice to keep the sun from "melting" the object) could clear the neighborhood of its orbit? How much closer could this hypothetical object get to the sun than Mercury before its Roche limit would be reached and the object shatters completely? Maybe the second requirement for a planet should state that a planet has either cleared its orbit (or is dynamically dominant) OR has a mass that could be gravitationally dominant around its parent star (regardless of where the object is currently located): a planet has a "dominant mass"?

2006 SQ372 Is a centaur with an perihelion of 24au and an aphelion of 1570au. It has a argument of perihelion of 122° so it should also be affected by planet nine, it's to far from Uranus or Neptune. Tell me if I'm wrong!

2006 SQ372 Is a centaur with an perihelion of 24au and an aphelion of 1570au. It has a argument of perihelion of 122° so it should also be affected by planet nine, it's to far from Uranus or Neptune. Tell me if I'm wrong!

Great work. Of course, math is all you need. But doesn't that make Sitchin's work also cool? The waxing and waning of ice ages is caused by the changing eccentric orbit of the earth. That's also an outcome of math.

Planet 9 can't be rosponsible for global flood or for parting of Red Sea,....it is true only partly. If more distant Planet 10- I call it Nemesis has prolongated though not too eccentric orbit,..it don't visit indoor, outdor planets, or Kuiper belt,..but 10 can havr influence on period,.. of Planet 9-I call it Nibiru with much more eccentric orbit, which can especially during Nemesis aphelia, perihelia go closer even to indoor planets,.. ?! Pavel Smutny

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