Friday, October 30, 2009

Iran - No deal on nukes

Iran insists on simultaneously exchanging its low-enriched uranium for nuclear fuel produced overseas, the state news agency said Friday, calling the demand a "red line" that will not be abandoned.

The condition undermines the basis of a UN-backed plan demanding Iran ship most of its uranium outside its borders to be further enriched in Russia and turned into fuel rods in France for use in a research reactor. That process could take up to a year. {...}

The news agency IRNA also said, however, that Iran has not yet given its answer to the UN-backed proposal to ship most of its enriched uranium overseas and wants to hold further negotiations on the plan.

The agency quoted an unidentified official as saying an Iranian response to the Western offer Thursday "did not contain a reply" to the UN-backed plan but simply expressed Iran's "positive attitude" and willingness to hold talks on the proposal.

Here's the game, and it's one that ought to be known to anyone with any knowledge of the Middle East: once the buyer makes an offer you like and thinks he has a deal,you up the price to see how much more you can squeeze out of him.

The original offer to the Iranians was an incredibly bad one for the West and an incredibly good one for the Mullahs.

First, Iran has no legal right to enrich uranium, and the UN Security Council said so in five successive Chapter VII resolutions - Resolution 1696, adopted July 31, 2006 for example - that happened because the IAEA found Iran in noncompliance of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Iran signed. Cutting a deal with Iran on its illegally enriched uranium, especially since any suspension of future enrichment wasn't included just legitimized Iran's illegal program and ensured that its violations of the treaty on enrichment can continue.

Rest assured that other countries plotting to illegally join the nuclear club have noted this. Why should Iran or anybody else pay attention to any treaties or international obligations in the future?

Second, Iran gets an enrichment and technological bonus.

The deal calls for Iran's uranium to be enriched to 19.75%, just a hair under the 20% classification of weapons grade uranium.While uranium can be enriched to much higher levels, 20% is considered adequate and the deal means Iran gets to leapfrog over their current level of technology.

Even worse, the enriched uranium can be easily reconverted into uranium hexafluoride gas and quickly enriched to weapons grade..or the Mullahs could also use the nuclear fuel to chemically extract plutonium to produce their nuclear weapons.

Yes, this is the agreement President Obama, who's made a fetish of nuclear disarmament signed off on! Except, of course there is no deal. There never has been.

What the Iranians will do now is delay some more and see what additional concessions and gimmees they can extract from the West and how much more time they can buy. If Obama and the West sweeten the pot, well and good, If not, after more time passes, they will either 'reluctantly' accept this bonanza or suddenly unveil a little nuclear surprise and claim that any further negotiations on the matter are unnecessary now - and laugh themselves silly at the gullible ferenghi, who was going to walk away from the rug merchant's stall telling everyone what a great deal he made.

The way this has been set up, it's a win for Iran any way it goes.

Of course, the one risk for the mullahs is that we could decide to change the rules of the game and upset the board any time we wanted to. Unfortunately, given the mullah's sense of whom they're dealing with, they apparently see it as a gamble well worth the risk.

I believe there's a verse by the Persian poet Hafez that fits this situation rather well:

"If he, being young and unskillful, seeks to gamble for silver and gold, Take his money my son, praising Allah...the fool was meant to be sold."

2 comments:

B.Poster
said...

Frankly I don't see how we can change the rules any time we want to. Iran with its alliances with Russia and China, as well as its close relations with countries like France and Germany knows full well that it can prevail in any confrontation with America. The real worry should be will Iran change the game and decide to attack America or its interests and can we prevent it?

Btw, why the remark about gullible Ferenghi? By Ferenghi I think you must mean the humanoid race of traders in the Star Trek series. If this is who you mean, these folks are actually quite smart. To compare them to the current people governing America and the West is an insult to the Ferenghi.

The Ferenghi would recognize that negotiating with the Iranians is folly for two primary reasons. 1.)The media scrutiny on America is always intense. As such, America will have to honor any agreements it makes whether it wants to or not. Not only do the Iranians not face this kind of media scrutiny, most of the media can be expected to side with Iran in any dispute with America. At least this is the case for the international media. 2.)As long as Russia is behind Iran any type of military confrontation with Iran would be extremely difficult.

Before negotiating with Iran on any thing the Ferenghi of the Star Trek series would, at a minimum, insist on some type of system to ensure Iranian compliance with any agreement. For example, out sourcing part of the project to Russia and France would be a non starter. Russia is to friendly with Iran and France makes to much money in trade with Iran to be trusted.

Not meaning to be disagreeable I'm just pointing out that the Ferenghi, if they are who I think you mean, is not a particularly good analogy to describe someone who is gullible. If you had someone else in mind, then I stand corrected.:)

Poster, You do have a dispiriting way of looking at the relative strengths of America vis a vis her enemies! I don't believe it's an issue of power so much as the political will to use that power. Granted it amounts to the same thing if the country stays in kumbaya denial mode. As to the Ferenghi, I concur, no Ferenghi would be so foolish as to negotiate with Iran. More likely they would inveigle the Klingons or perhaps Romulans into an altercation in their stead. Maybe they're more like the Saudis?