Ohhhh what a comeback! If only we could understand what it meant. I think that last word is supposed to be "elephant."

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Saying Philip Rivers is on fire is an understatement. Coming out of hibernation just in time for his annual December explosion, Rivers is 63-of-84 for 804 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions in the past three weeks. That's a completion percentage of 75 and a YPA of 9.6. No one's playing as good as him right now, save for maybe Drew Brees.

I see no reason why the Bastard of the Trident would slow down. The Lions have tons of injuries in their secondary, which would explain why they've been guilty of surrendering 280-plus yards to four of their previous five opponents.

The Lions also have issues stopping the run, thanks to their wide-nine formation. Each of their three previous opponents has gashed them for at least 100 rushing yards, so Ryan Mathews will once again serve as a solid complement to Rivers.

DETROIT OFFENSE: There's definitely going to be an offensive explosion at Ford Field this Saturday because the Lions will be able to torch San Diego's defense as well.

Matthew Stafford was brilliant in the fourth quarter last week, hooking up with Calvin Johnson on multiple occasions on two final drives, including one possession that went 99 yards. The Chargers have struggled versus aerial attacks all year due to a plethora of injuries (sound familiar?), so Ser Stafford and Megatron should be able to pick up right where they left off.

Kevin Smith's presence will obviously help Detroit's cause. Smith wasn't much of a factor last week, but the important thing is that he made it through the entire game unscathed. Now another week healthier, Smith figures to be a bigger part of the offense in this contest.

RECAP: I like the Chargers for two reasons. The Lions are just 2-7 against the spread in their previous nine games because they keep making stupid mistakes and shooting themselves in the foot with dumb penalties. They were able to get away with it against the slumping Raiders, but that's not going to fly against red-hot San Diego.

And second, it's not often that we can get points with one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. If healthy, Rivers is always worth betting as an underdog - especially in December.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
The Lions are two up on everyone out of playoff contention, so they don't need to win.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
People are on the Charger bandwagon.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 76% (64,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Philip Rivers is 22-11 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (7-2 ATS as an underdog).

Sadly, this man's prediction that both teams would eat ether failed to come to fruition.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I wrote in my NFL Power Rankings that I compare this 49er team to the 2001 Bears. That Chicago squad had a great defense and special teams, but its dink-and-dunk offense, which worked well enough in the regular season, would eventually betray them in the playoffs.

Most of what Smith does is dink and dunk. He does a good job of getting the ball out quickly, but there are hardly any big plays - the type of thing the Seahawks are susceptible to because of their young corners.

The 49ers want to pound the rock with Frank Gore, and have Smith fire the ball to Vernon Davis and Miguel Lobsterbush so that they can make plays. The first part of that plan doesn't look like it would work on paper because Seattle is fourth versus the run (3.8 YPC), but that number has swelled to 4.3 in the past four weeks.

If Gore runs well, as expected, San Francisco will be able to utilize its normal offense and score enough to win this contest. Because of its limitations and red-zone ineptness, I wouldn't expect the team to run away from the Seahawks, however.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Marshawn "Marcel" "Beast Mode" "Commander of the Skittle Warriors" "Green Skittle" "Runny Guy" Lynch has been great this year, perhaps motivated by the prospect of obtaining a new contract. However, like last week, Lynch will have issues finding running room.

Lynch was bottled up for 42 yards on 20 carries last week by Chicago's elite defense. He scored two touchdowns to the delight of his fantasy owners, but I wouldn't expect him to find the end zone against the 49ers' No. 1 ground defense (3.2 YPC), who haven't allowed a rushing score all year.

With Lynch presumably stymied, Tarvaris Jackson will have to move the chains on his own. He's actually done a decent job converting third downs this year, but doing so against San Francisco's elite defense will be quite a challenge. Aldon Smith and Justin Smith will definitely put immense pressure on Jackson, who is playing behind a patchwork offensive line.

RECAP: Teams that win in blowouts on Monday Night Football usually cover the spread the week after (44-23 ATS since 1999), but I have an even better trend for you that goes against the 49ers.

Since 1989, teams that have 11 victories or more are 27-56 against the spread as road favorites in the regular season. This has already affected the Packers twice this year (at Giants, at Chiefs). The logic here is that teams that have clinched playoff berth may not take away games that they're expected to win very seriously.

Unit Change: I'm taking the Seahawks for two units. Along with the reverse line movement, there are a couple of situational angles in Seattle's favor, including the Big Al Trend I like to use (unrested home dogs are 95-48 against the spread off a straight-up road win vs. team coming off home win.)

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: I've been posting some comments from perverted users directed at hot chicks on GameCenter, most of which came from a creeper named Aaron3619.

Last week, I listed some of Aaron's pervy comments:

I also wrote that the StrikerSarah thing intrigued me:

I wrote: "What question is Aaron3619 going to ask? It couldn't have to do with 'naked pic or bikini pic,' could it?"

Well, we have our answer:

I called it! Seriously, how good am I? It's like I can predict the future, or something. Well, as long as the future doesn't have to do with NFL games this year. BURN!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo is having a great year, but everything he's done thus far doesn't matter. We've been here before. We've seen Dallas have the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. How Romo performs from this point forward is what's really crucial because he's struggled in crunch time throughout his entire career.

Romo actually had one of his worst outings this season against the Eagles back in Week 8. He went just 18-of-35 for 203 yards, one touchdown and an interception. The problem was that he was sacked a whopping four times.

I wouldn't expect that to happen again. Rookie right tackle Tyron Smith was confused by Philadelphia's wide-nine formation. He recently talked about how he learned to adjust for that scheme, so I would be shocked if he has another poor performance.

The Cowboys will be able to run all over the Eagles. Felix Jones is showing off the same type of running ability that he displayed in the preseason, which prompted me to slot him really high in my fantasy rankings. Philadelphia's inability to stop the rush is pretty well documented, and I see no reason why that would suddenly improve in this department.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: While the Eagles are anemic versus ground attacks, the Cowboys are just as porous against the pass. This was evident in that aforementioned Week 8 matchup when QB Dog Killer torched the secondary, going 21-of-28 for 279 yards and two touchdowns to go along with 54 rushing yards on seven scrambles.

Now that QB Dog Killer and all of his receivers are healthy, Philadelphia's aerial attack should be expected to have a repeat performance.

I haven't even touched on LeSean McCoy yet, who is the Eagles' best skill-position player in a very long time. Though Dallas is decent versus the run (11th; 4.1 YPC), McCoy wreaked havoc upon its front seven in the prior meeting, rushing for a whopping 185 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries. And at this point, I don't need to mention how important it is for Andy Reid to remember to give McCoy enough touches.

RECAP: I'm kicking myself for last week's Eagle prediction. I wrote that I expected the Jets to triumph unless either the Giants or Cowboys suffered a defeat, since victories by both teams would have meant that Philadelphia would have been eliminated from the playoffs. The Giants went down early, but I never changed my selection. It was for no units though, so it's not the end of the world or anything.

But it's the same situation this week. If the Giants beat the Jets at 1 p.m., the Eagles will be out of it, so they obviously won't have the motivation to play Dallas tough. If, however, the Jets are victorious, I'll fully expect the Eagles to win this game.

I have the Giants winning, so I'm tentatively picking the Cowboys. But definitely stay tuned. I'll have an update on this selection Saturday afternoon, right before 4 o'clock Eastern.

GIANTS-JETS UPDATE: As of this writing, the Giants are up, 20-7. If they hold on, and it looks like that's going to happen, this game means nothing to either team. I'm sticking with my Dallas pick, but for no units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This game wouldn't mean all that much to the Cowboys (all they have to do is win in Week 17) if they weren't out for revenge.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: There's no line on this game as of Tuesday evening because Vegas apparently believes that Jay Cutler might be able to play. This clashes with ESPN Chicago's report that Josh McCown will be the starter.

McCown's no good, but he can't be any worse than Cannon Ball Caleb Hanie, who threw nine interceptions in four games. As long as McCown takes care of the football, the Bears should have some success moving the chains because Green Bay's defense is atrocious in every aspect. The secondary has been awful ever since losing stud safety Nick Collins to a season-ending injury, while a non-existent pass rush has racked up just three sacks in the past four weeks.

The run defense is bad too - four consecutive 100-yard rushing performances allowed to the opposition - so this is where the Bears will have most of their success. Kahlil Bell looked pretty good last week, both as a runner and a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers was arguably playing better than any quarterback in NFL history earlier in the season, but that's definitely not the case anymore. There have been too many injuries to the offensive front, while Greg Jennings' absence allowed the Chiefs to challenge the receivers at the line of scrimmage and play man-to-man.

I expect the Bears to employ the same strategy. Jordy Nelson is not a No. 1. James Jones is inconsistent. Donald Driver is too old. Randall Cobb isn't seasoned enough. Whom does Rodgers have to throw to besides Jermichael Finley, and how can he get the ball to the right spot with no time in the pocket?

Rodgers will have to do it all by himself because Chicago's run defense has been downright prolific the past five weeks. Since Week 11, the Bears have surrendered just 2.8 YPC, which is good for first in the NFL.

RECAP: I like the Bears for several reasons:

1. I mentioned the obvious one below. No team in the past 25 years that has started 12-0 or better and then lost for the first time has won its next game. No victories against the spread. No victories straight up.

2. As I hinted above, the Packers have major flaws. The defense has sucked all year, but now the offense is shaky because Rodgers has lost his best receiver and two key linemen.

The Packers have failed to cover three of their past five contests. One of the two occasions that they actually beat the spread was at Detroit on Thanksgiving. The Lions could have won that game if Kevin Smith hadn't gotten hurt and Ndamukong Suh wasn't thrown out for stomping on a lineman.
3. The Packers may not even have anything to play for. If the 49ers lose to the Seahawks, Green Bay will have the No. 1 seed locked up. That could be a reason there's no spread posted yet.

4. A trend that favors Chicago: Excluding Week 17 games, road divisional teams are 52-28 against the spread since 2002 (6-0 this year) when coming off a non-divisional loss as a favorite.

There's no line posted yet, so stay tuned. I'll probably make this a three-unit wager.

LINE POSTED: Because this game depends entirely on what happens in the 49ers-Seahawks contest, I'll have a precise pick posted Sunday afternoon. I'm taking the Bears either way, but the unit total hinges on whether San Francisco loses or not.

OFFICIAL PICK: Item No. 3 doesn't apply because San Francisco won, but I still like the Bears for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
The Packers have to feel deflated after that first loss. No team in the past 25 years that has started 12-0 and then lost has won its next game.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
As expected, tons of action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 78% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Jay Cutler is 1-5 vs. Packers.

Deflation: Teams that start 12-0 or better and then lose its first game are 0-4 SU/ATS in its next game.

Lovie Smith is 6-2 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

Bears are 9-5 ATS off back-to-back losses since 2005.

Bears are 7-4 ATS after giving up 30 or more points in a loss since 2005.

It's Monday Night Football, but we're going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here's what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Atlanta, home of the Dirty Bird Falcons! In tonight's game, the Falcons take on the Saints, unless, guys, I'm sorry to break this to you like this, but I have a bomb strapped to my chest. Michael Vick is my favorite player, and I'm going to prove my loyalty to him by blowing up his former team!

Emmitt: Mike, this is the fifth time in three week, or year, that you have talked about settin' up somebody the bomb. The Falcon have not doned anythin' wrong, so why do you want to blowed... uhh... blewed... uhh... blowed them up?

Reilly: Emmitt, you don't understand because you're not a true Eagles fan. Lots of Eagles fans have given up on Michael Vick because he hasn't been as good this year, but I want to prove to Michael Vick that I'm his man through thick and thin. Bombs away!

Herm: No bomb! No bomb! No bomb! Think about it! Think about it! Think about it! There are other ways! Other methods! Other strategies! Other plans! There doesn't have to be an explosion! No boom! No bang! No kaboom! No kazang! No... uhh...

Reilly: I don't know why I didn't blow you up years ago, Herm. This was the greatest mistake in my life.

Emmitt: Mike, I think the Herm on to somethin'. You say you love Michaels Vick. But that do not mean you have to blewed... uhh... blowed... uhh... blewned... uhh... I forget.

Tollefson: Sorry to interrupt you, Emmitt. I have to ask Kevin Reilly something before he explodes. What do you plan on doing with your concubines? Can you leave them to me in your will?

Reilly: Concubines? What are you talking about?

Tollefson: I'm sorry, I just naturally assumed that all men possessed at least a half-a-dozen concubines, you know, women to have around to cook, clean and have sex, since that's all they're good for. I personally have 84 concubines, and I'd like to add more to my collection.

Reilly: You know what, Don? I'm tired of your sexist remarks. Maybe I should blow you up with my bomb instead.

Millen: Excuse me, Kevin, before you blow anything up, may I inquire if I can purchase your bomb? You see, I have 15 100-Percent USDA Men coming to my hotel room after this game. I have the usual kielbasas and waffles at the ready, but sticking a bomb into our backsides would really make the night memorable.

Reilly: Ugh, I don't know what to do anymore. I want to blow up so many people that I need to think this one through. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees needs just 306 yards to break Dan Marino's single-season yardage record. There's a good chance he'll get it in this contest. The Falcons haven't surrendered more than 300 passing yards in any contest since Week 10 - but that was when they battled New Orleans.

Atlanta has had issues in its secondary recently that haven't been exposed too much because of the pedestrian quarterbacks it has battled lately (Blaine Gabbert, T.J. Yates, Christian Ponder, Matt Hasselbeck). Only Cam Newton posed much of a threat. The good news, however, is that top cornerback Brent Grimes could be back from a knee injury.

Still, Brees is on fire and will be difficult to stop because of all of his weapons. If the Falcons want to have a shot, they'll have to find some way to pressure him without blitzing. There's a good chance that'll happen, given that they have 14 sacks in their previous four contests. John Abraham came alive with 3.5 sacks Thursday night against Jacksonville.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Saints have had issues of their own in terms of stopping the pass. Excluding last week's battle because Christian Ponder is really struggling, they've yielded at least 280 yards to the previous five quarterbacks they've matched up against: Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Locker, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Josh Freeman and... Matt Ryan.

Ryan went 29-of-52 for 351 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a Week 10 meeting against New Orleans. That really bodes well for this contest because neither Roddy White nor Julio Jones was completely healthy in that matchup. Both are on fire at the moment.

The Falcons will, of course, try to establish the ground game with Michael Turner, as they always do. They'll be less successful here. The Saints have really improved against the run since their bye, limiting their previous four opponents to 87 rushing yards or fewer.

RECAP: Aside from Miami over New England, the Falcons are my favorite play of the week.

These Atlanta-New Orleans games are always close. Check out the margin of victory between the two teams in the previous six meetings: Saints by 4, Saints by 8, Saints by 3, Falcons by 3, Saints by 3, Saints by 3.

A trend that I listed in the Patriots-Dolphins game also applies: Teams with five or more consecutive wins (Saints) are 24-42 against the spread at home since 2006.

UNIT CHANGE: I'm dropping this to three units. I feel like four was a bit too much.

TEASER HEDGE: The last leg of my three-team teaser is still alive (Falcons +17). I have a nice middle with the Saints -7, so I'll be taking that for one unit.

Week 16 NFL Picks - Early Games Texans at Colts, Rams at Steelers, Broncos at Bills, Buccaneers at Panthers, Vikings at Redskins, Raiders at Chiefs, Browns at Ravens, Dolphins at Patriots, Jaguars at Titans, Giants at Jets, Cardinals at Bengals

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

the browns are NOT taking a qb at #1 overall who is a FAR inferior prospect compared to a player of myles garrett's caliber. also, kizer as a first round pick is a joke of an analysis. he's barely clinging to his starting job in college. he's a second rounder at best.