Posted by Joshua on Thursday, September 6th, 2007

Ibrahim Hamidi has published two articles in al-Hayat explaining the ramifications of the new visa requirements for Iraqis seeking to enter Syria and for those already resident in Syria. I copy them below. Also be sure to read the Moubayed article on where Lebanese presidential elections stand – Winners, losers, and the Berri initiative.

Your very good article(as usual) about the new visa requirements for Iraqi entering Syria did capture my attention. However, there is a small detail and I felt I would better share it with you.

While it is true that Syrian government has welcomed the Iraqis in a way that no other country did during their never-ending plight, but still I always felt that there has been something more than just the abstract notion of pan-Arabism at play.

If you remember Steve McCarthy of Dan Rather Reports at HDNet who did a documentary about the Iraqi exodus. He told me that the head of the UNHCR in Syria believed the underlying reason of this policy change towards the Iraqis was because of the economic status of these refugees. The earlier waves of Iraqi refugees were considerably well-off which proved valuable for the troubled Syrian economy and the Syrians didn’t see any reason to make any fuss about their present, but once the poorer ones started to roll up, then the guardians of the safe haven began to complain.

Frankly, at the time I didn’t give the whole thing much thought, but it got back to me recently when I read this report of the International Monetary Fund:

If the Berri initiative sees the light, it would be a plus for both the Sunnis and Shiites. Hezbollah would get a friendly president, who would support a greater role for it and its allies within the Lebanese system. The Sunnis would get to keep the premiership in the hands of the Hariri bloc. But what about Lebanese Christians? Where do they fall in the Berri initiative? …

"We believe that there have been fewer suicide bombers coming through Syria, and we are cautious about this assessment, but we do think that the Syrians may have been taking more active steps against al Qaeda, which is understandable…I mean, if al Qaeda were ever to succeed in Iraq, the next thing they'd do is turn … [to] Damascus. I can assure you." Gen. Petreaus, here, and GD in the Belgravia Dispatch, here

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Comments (12)

1. normansaid:

I am surprised of the iraqi argument about the selfishness of the Syrians , he should remember that Syria provided free Health care and free education to these Iraqi Arabs while others made them pay for these services , what de we expect from the western IMF to say about the Terror state of Syria improving it’s economy except giving the cridet to somthing other than Syria’s acheivments.

exactly … it is silly to always try to find an evil motive behind anything that Syria does. Accepting 1.5 million Iraqi refuggess is reduced to “they took the rich ones and now they are closing the border for the poor”.

Syria always took refuggess .. poor or rich, Arab or not.

Most of the Iraqi leaders today were refugees in Syria during the 80’s or 90’s … Malki … Allawi … president Talbani …

How many here know that the popular Lebanese army defeated Fateh al-Islam with the help of … the Syrian army!

The Untied States (Lebanon’s ally) did not give the Lebanese army the ammunitions theyneeded. Syria was supplying them the past few weeks… supplying ammunitions and information.

Sami Moubayed, the Berri initiative
Aoun’s political track record starts (1988) with his failed negotiations with the Syrian regime. Upon the fall of the Berlin wall, his alliance with Saddam Hussein was taking the wrong side. His war against the Lebanese Forces destroyed the Christian area; he lost it. His military and rhetorical war against Syria was launched at the bad moment; he lost it too. He does not appear to have interpersonal skills, at least judging by the fact that he spent 15 years in France without building a network. Now you induce that he has been outmaneuvered by Hezbollah. Is this why you conclude that he is very talented?
Given how poorly gifted their present strong man, I would rather think that Christians should rather bet for their revival on the return to Lebanon of their young, dynamic, ambitious, educated, elite. This only requires stability, after other ingredients for their return, ie human rights, liberal economy, cultural and political freedom, were won with the Syrian regime’s withdrawal. Stability we cannot get with a compulsively confrontational president, do we? No, Mr. Moubayed, with all due respect, your view is wrong. Best regards

It seems that we are unable to see things as they are. We need to stop pretending that Syria, or any other country for that matter, is not driven by its interests particularly economic interests when it comes to politics. Why should “we” always believe that our policies eternally have been purely and surely good and anyone who dare to suggestion otherwise is evil. Why???

The guy didn’t make up facts, but rather he cited the head of the UNHCR in Syria through a well-known journalist and the IMF. Are these people part of giant conspiracy to undermine our pan-Arabist policy? Come on guys? This is realpolitikis, not some empty slogan of good v evil that we read in our textbooks at school.

So instead of going on and expressing dismay at what the dude said, think about it for a moment. In doing so, check out Aljazeera documentary War of Lebanon and see whether the constant shift of our alliances was born out from pan-Arabist consideration or driven by our interests…

I bet that these guys of Aljazeera and al Hayat are also part of the conspiracy against us.

The IMF bases its assessments on figures provided by the Syrian government. In the latest report, the IMF includes a line in its balance of payments figures (based on official Syrian figures) showing inflows related to Iraqi immigrants. These were $457m in 2004, an estimated $803m in 2005, a estimated $1,309m in 2006 and a projected $1,225m in 2007. These flows have played an important part in compensating for the decline in Syria’s oil payments surplus, and the Iraqi influx has also played a part in stimulating demand, thereby contributing to overall real GDP growth. As the IMF also points out, the Iraqi refugees have placed heavy strains on Syrian public services.

I find it hard to believe that 1.5 million were all rich and loaded. I do believe however that a fair proportion of them are relatively well off. The property value rose sharply in the past few years and letting has become more of a business than before. Everyone I know seems to be mind boggled over the house price inflation. I’m sure not all of it is due to the Iraqi’s as investment has been coming from the Gulf region too. I think the above story is rather exaggerating the motives behind letting Iraqis in.

“How many here know that the popular Lebanese army defeated Fateh al-Islam with the help of … the Syrian army!” – Alex, where did you get this information from? do you have a link?

US Democratic presidential hopeful praises Syria for taking Iraqi refugees
U.S. Democratic presidential hopeful Dennis Kucinich, on a Mideast visit that included a stop in Syria, said the country lambasted by the Bush administration deserves credit for taking in more than a million Iraqi refugees. Kucinich, a strong anti-war opponent who trails far in the U.S. presidential polls, also said he won’t visit Iraq on his trip to the region because he considers the U.S. military deployment there illegal. “I feel the United States is engaging in an illegal occupation … I don’t want to bless that occupation with my presence,” he said in an interview in Lebanon, after visiting Syria. “I will not do it.” Speaking just days before U.S. Gen. David Petraeus is scheduled to deliver an assessment of Iraq’s security situation, the Ohio congressman said his fellow Democrats in Congress must live up to their promises to voters in 2006 to “end the war, and end it now.” Kucinich, who accused the Bush administration of policies that have destabilized the Mideast, met with Syrian President Bashar Assad during his visit to Damascus. He said Assad was receptive to his ideas of “strength through peace.” He also praised Syria for taking in Iraqi refugees.