Opec confident China-US dispute won't hit demand

Cory Rios |Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Saudi Arabia reins in oil production as demand forecasts waver

The battle of wills between Tehran and the Trump administration intensified Monday, as Iranian officials privately admitted they will soon sell discounted oil and gas to Asian customers as they brace for the return of US sanctions.

Prices rebounded from the previous session's slide that came as a financial crisis in Turkey sparked fears that possible contagion throughout emerging economies could hurt fuel demand. Analysts say it has already hit several emerging market currencies, including the South African rand, Russian ruble, and Mexican peso.

In a monthly report, OPEC said the world will need 32.05 million bpd of crude from its 15 members in 2019, down 130,000 bpd from last month's forecast.

Investors are now seen weighing bullish factors that include potential supply disruptions to Iranian crude exports against more bearish indicators, such as broad greenback strength and a ramp-up in production by OPEC and its allied partners.

However, OPEC ran out the prospect that trade spat between the U.S. and China to have much impact on the world's oil demand, unless the rifts reach beyond the world's largest two economies.

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Increased production in Nigeria, Kuwait and the UAE more than offset the drop recorded in Libya, Iran and Saudi Arabia, according to Bloomberg.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said last week that global oil supply could become "very challenging" when USA sanctions on Iran return, but "trade tensions might escalate and lead to slower economic growth, and in turn lower oil demand".

Global oil demand is rising, but not as fast as supply.

In July, Saudi Arabia told the producer group of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that it had cut production by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.288 million bpd.

Brent crude has fallen back to about $72 a barrel as the questions over demand have offset concerns over supply disruptions, such as United States sanctions on Iran, which had helped to propel the global oil benchmark to highs of $80 a barrel in May.

The United States has started implementing new sanctions against Iran, which from November will also target the country's petroleum sector.

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