Ukraine's NATO Pipe Dream?

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (R) and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg give a press conference after their talks in Kiev on July 10, 2017. Over half of Europeans polled want Ukraine to join NATO. Less than half think it will save them from the Russians. (Photo by SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/Getty Images)

The annual Yalta European Strategy conference, funded in part by FORBES-listed Ukrainian billionaire Victor Pinchuk ended with its usual flare of anti-Russia rhetoric and odes to a corruption-free Ukraine. The narrative is the same as it has been since the conference moved to Kiev from Yalta in Crimea after Russia annexed it in 2014. The message: the Russians are coming for you, Europe. Pay attention to us. (Or for the beta males in the room: save us!)

For generations, Ukraine has been in the Russian orbit. Now it's in the European Union's orbit, or so it wishes. By default, that means it is in Washington's orbit.

Hurd gave YES attendees what many have come to hear from their Western counterparts: “Crimea is an invasion of a sovereign country. Russia is not an ally," he said. "It is an adversary."

Once again, Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko touted the country's reforms, and its eagerness to join the European Union. The hallmark of that move is Ukraine's NATO membership.

It's something Vladimir Putin saw coming from miles away. If you're a Russian geopolitical strategist and war gamer, the only way to save your Black Sea Fleet in Sevastapol, a Crimean port, is simply to take that piece of real estate out of Ukraine's hands. And so that they did, setting in yet another wedge between Russia and the West.

In Poroshenko's view, the best way to stop Russians from more land grabs is to become a full fledged member of NATO.

Good luck with that.

'Good luck with that' because Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO so long as there is a civil war in East Ukraine. Moreover, there would have to be agreement that Crimea is no longer part of Ukraine. Countries do not become member states if they are going through border disputes. Russia is not handing over Crimea anytime soon. Not as long as Putin is in charge.

Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference and member of the YES Board threw some cold water on this whole NATO thing.

“I cannot see any possibility on the horizon for all NATO members to vote in favor of Ukraine's membership," Ishcinger said. "There is no chance of this happening while there is gunfire in (Ukraine). The key problem is the conflict, which will prompt many NATO members to say: if we accept Ukraine, we inherit these problems with Russia," he concluded.

Meaning, if they accept Ukraine and if Russia is still helping an armed separatist movement in the East, then NATO is fighting Russians. It's a proxy war. Ukraine's east becomes an Afghanistan.

Poroshenko's opening remarks on Sept. 15 showed he has the narrative down pat, at least.

“In the occupation of Crimea, attacks in Donbas, endless cyber attacks, attempts to influence western voting, the Kremlin is trying to establish its own world order. History teaches us that Russia cannot be trusted. The Kremlin refuses to recognize its crimes so we need to stay united," he said before praising congress for expanding Russia sanctions.

Both Washington and Brussels have had sectoral sanctions placed on Russia since 2014. The sanctions were made extra-territorial this summer and included potential attacks against Russian government bonds and the Russian Baltic Sea pipeline into Germany known as Nord Stream II.

“Our historic place is in the united European family and the transatlantic western alliance," Poroshenko went on to say last week. "Our vocation is to become the eastern border of the European civilization. We are heading towards Ukraine’s full membership of the EU and NATO."

FORBES billionaire Victor Pinchuk, founder of Interpipe Group in Ukraine, has done an about-face on the Crimea issue. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Most Europeans polled think Ukraine in NATO is a good idea. But even more believe NATO membership won't save them from Russia.

Some 58% Europeans support Ukraine’s joining NATO, less than those who think Ukraine should join the EU, which stands at 48% and is down from 55% in 2005, according to Paris based opinion pollster, Kantar Public.

A thousand people each from Germany, France, Italy, Lithuania, Great Britain, Poland and the Netherlands were surveyed.

On one hand, the main reason for Ukraine’s integration with NATO is seen as obvious: to counter Russia, according to 40% of those surveyed. On the other hand, only 8% believe Ukraine’s joining NATO will boost the ability of Europe to counter Russia there or in other European Union states.

Nevertheless, Ukraine isn't give up on the dream. At least two former NATO officials serve on the YES board. They're not there to give advice on how to privatize state assets and build free-trade zones.

YES financier Pinchuk never thought so. Now he's changed his mind. "Ukrainians should not lose faith in returning to Crimea and should find pragmatic ways to achieve this,” he says. Last December, the billionaire was lambasted for not helping the anti-Russia cause when he penned an op-ed for the WSJ saying that maybe Ukraine should give up on Crimea.

The truth is, Ukraine has more important things to worry about than focusing on its NATO pipe dream.

Its corruption fight took a punch in the face on Tuesday. Ukraine's most important company, Naftogaz, lost its entire board of independent advisors. The only guys left on the board are government hires.

London-based Independent Supervisory Board Members Paul Warwick and Marcus Richards said they left because the corruption fight inside the state-controlled energy giant is a fail.

“Despite assurances from senior politicians, deadlines have passed and commitments have not been delivered... Political meddling is becoming increasingly evident and, unfortunately, the norm. Essentially, no material change has occurred over the last five months despite the assurances we received to the contrary”, said Paul Warwick, Chairman of the Supervisory Board, in his letter, Naftogaz shared with reporters today.

Yet, all is well and good in Ukraine post-Russia. The only problem...is the Russians.

It's most important company is facing an uphill battle. It's reform push is what Ukraine needs if it wants to join the EU, and is at the very least an important first step in looking good on paper for NATO. What will Ukraine do?

Ukraine's Prime Minister, Volodymyr Groysman, told the YES conference that Ukraine was not winning its fight against corruption. Like all post-Soviet systems, it is going to take a couple of generations to work around the complete implosion of a political and economic ecosystem that prided itself on cronyism and kleptocracy. The same goes in Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which is only now trying to shed its old Soviet way of running things.

“I believe that we must quickly set up an instrument that enables the prosecution of corrupt officials," he said. "Whatever we name it – the Anticorruption Chamber or Anticorruption Court – is not important. What is important is to quickly set up a body which will be completely independent," he said.

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