Moore's Law's End Reboots Industry

CMOS scaling is ‘not dead, just resting’

Rick Merritt, EETimes 6/26/2017 01:01 AM EDT

SAN JOSE, Calif. – The expected death of Moore’s Law will transform the semiconductor and computer industries, said a panel of experts at an event marking the 50th anniversary of the Alan Turing award.

A basket of silicon, systems and software technologies will continue progress, but not at the same pace, they said. With no clear replacement for CMOS scaling, semiconductor and systems industries may be reshaped into vertical silos, they added.

“Moore’s Law said transistor density doubles every 18 months, something we maintained for 25 years, but it began slowing down to every two to three years around 2000-2005, and more recently we’re seeing doubling about every four years, so were reaching the end of semiconductor technology as we know it,” said John Hennessy, former president of Stanford University and author of a key text book on microprocessors.