Who Are This Year's Early Oscar Contenders?

It's never too soon for a few educated guesses. Here are the already released movies that might make it.

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September means kids are back and in school and election season is starting in earnest (at least in even-numbered years), but for movie fans, it's the start of awards season. Dozens of prestige pictures that are primed for Oscar nominations will soon premiere, and actors and filmmakers have already flocked to the Venice and Telluride film festivals to generate buzz for films they hope will sustain them until the Academy Awards in February. So far, Alejandro Gonzalez Innarritu's Birdman and Bennett Miller's Foxcatcher have drawn the most hype, but there is a long way to go. The Toronto Film Festival, which has correctly predicted the Best Picture winner each of the last two years, begins this week, and the prestigious New York Film Festival opens later this month.

Still, while there are plenty of upcoming releases that seem destined to go home with a little Oscar gold, some of the surefire nominees have already come and gone from theaters. Yes, every year, the Academy sees fit to nominate at least a few films that debuted prior to awards season. For example, Beasts of the Southern Wild was released in July of 2013 but still managed to score nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Actress. So which films that have already debuted this year will hear their names called on Oscar night? Here are a few educated guesses:

Best Actor

Although Wes Anderson routinely receives nominations for his screenplays, he has never directed an actor to a nomination. It's surprising, considering how much actors love to work with him (and do it for scale), but this could be the year he breaks the streak. The Grand Budapest Hotel was revered by critics upon its release earlier this year, and Ralph Fiennes carried the film as M. Gustave, the elegantly effervescent concierge of the titular establishment. Although the role was originally offered to Johnny Depp, it's impossible to see anyone but Fiennes as Gustave, which may be the highest compliment an actor can receive.

Best Actress

Previous winner Marion Cotillard probably deserves it for her stunning turn in The Immigrant, but the Weinstein Co. thought so little of that film that they released it in only a handful of theaters back in May. They probably won't spring for an Oscar campaign. A better bet is Scarlett Johansson for her riveting performance as an alien on the prowl in Under the Skin. Johansson had a terrific year at the box office — she co-starred in the year's second biggest film so far (Captain America: The Winter Soldier) and powered another to box-office success on star power alone (Lucy) — and the Academy loves to draw attention to those stars who keep Hollywood humming while taking the time to pursue more artistic endeavors.

Best Supporting Actor

John Lithgow has been nominated in consecutive years twice before — for The World According to Garp (1983) and Terms of Endearment (1984) — but has never won. His vulnerable performance in the indie romantic drama Love Is Strange is a great opportunity to honor both the film, which won the hearts of critics upon its release in late August, and the actor who provides its tender heart.

Best Supporting Actress

The summer's indie breakout hit Boyhood was, as some critics have noted, as much about the parents as it was the child, and the adult actors who played those roles are the glue that holds the film together. Ethan Hawke gets to have a lot of fun as the deadbeat dad, but Patricia Arquette is more interesting to watch, bringing subtle and ambiguous shadings to the single-mom archetype. Boyhood could see nominations across multiple categories, but Arquette's performance is too good to ignore.

Best Original Screenplay

After 12 Years a Slave capped a fantastic year of racially charged films with a Best Picture win, 2014 has been light on movies dealing explicitly with race. Bellewas a welcome exception, telling the story of a biracial woman in Victorian England who struggled to be accepted in aristocratic society. In many ways, Belle looks like Oscar bait: an exquisitely shot costume drama filled with fine performances, and the Academy would certainly like to honor another film that takes on racial issues so elegantly. The only thing standing in its ways is a controversy over the screenwriting credit (only recently settled by the Writer's Guild) that could scare off some voters.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Is this just wishful thinking to suggest Snowpiercer could be a contender here? Not if the Weinstein Co. has anything to say about it, as they recently made it the first screener sent to voting Academy members. Critics fell in love with Bong Joon-Ho's stylish and inventive adaptation of a French graphic novel upon its release in late June, offering plenty of think-pieces about why Hollywood should make more movies like it. Although it may be a little too action-oriented for an Oscar, the Academy often uses the screenplay categories to reward great films that are a little too hip for the bigger categories — The Usual Suspects, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, and Lost in Translation all won for their screenplay — and Snowpiercer would seem to fit the bill this year.

Best Director

With nominations for his screenplays for Before Sunset and Before Midnight, the Academy is slowly catching on to Richard Linklater, perhaps in part because of the recent increase in younger voting members who likely grew up watching Slacker and Dazed and Confused. Although Boyhood could certainly take a nomination for its writing, the sheer audacity of Linklater's directorial undertaking — which was shot over the course of 12 years with the same group of actors — will at least earn him a nomination, and it would not be that surprising to see him win.

Best Picture

Since the Academy increased the number of Best Picture nominees from 5 to 10, there has always been an "indie slot" reserved for the type of small, daring film that had been shut out in years past. Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Tree of Life, and Winter's Bone have all earned that spot in recent years, and this year, Boyhoodseems guaranteed a seat at the table. After debuting to rapturous reviews and an impressive box-office take, there has been a slight backlash — a recent Daily Beast article criticized its narrow depiction of America, noting that it "must be nice" when a "kid's biggest problem was a relatively amicable breakup" — but it is unlikely to shake Boyhood from its pedestal as the year's biggest indie crossover hit. Boyhood is a near-lock for a Best Picture nomination, showing that sneaking in an esoteric indie amid the summer sequels and remakes can be a recipe for Oscar success.