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That Amazon Drone? Not Going To Happen Till 2020

Immediately after the Charlie Rose show yesterday, Jeff Bezos was trending on Twitter. The reason for this was simple.

During the show, Bezos took Rose to Amazon’s research facility, where he showed the famed interviewer an Octocopter and predicted delivery of Amazon products through drones in “four to five years.”

And, suddenly, thanks to the Internet, it seemed that Amazon delivery through drones would happen today.

“For a relatively small amount of time, this story has gone viral and Amazon is on everybody’s lips just before the holidays,” says Patrick Egan, host and editor of the sUAS news, a news website for drones. He was referring to the publicity generated for Amazon with their announcement. Although he views Bezos’ statements in a positive frame, Egan says the time frames proposed by Bezos’ for delivery through aerial drones are unrealistic.

Egan’s skepticism is based on his study of FAA regulations governing the use of drones.

According to the FAA roadmap for drones, unmanned aerial aircraft will not have access to the US airspace until 2020. Amazon’s case is complicated by the fact that it will require licenses to operate flights that are beyond visual line of sight or beyond a range that is 400 feet high and 1500 feet laterally. This restriction means that unless you live very close to the Amazon fulfillment center, the chances of getting that package shipped to you are non-existent.

“It (the time frame for commercial applications of drones) could be beyond that,” predicts Egan, adding that we are “many, many years” away from this happening.

The Octocopter displayed by Bezos during the interview also did not impress Egan.

“It doesn’t look to me to be something that a company with resources, such as Amazon has, to put out there,” he says. As an example, he cited the absence of a blade guard – protection that prevents consumers from coming into contact with the multirotor’s blades – in the aircraft displayed by Bezos during the interview.

While regulation may delay Bezos’ plans, technology may get there sooner.

“We are not in hyperloop science fiction territory here,” says Brandon Basso, lead researcher at 3D Robotics, referring to Elon Musk’s plans to develop a transit system between LA and SF . According to him, the range and payload (less than five pounds and ten miles) specified by Bezos will become “more possible” with future technology.

The problem is also one of costs. Basso says the absolute best battery and propulsion technology onboard could set commercial drones by at least $10,000. That is a significant amount of money per drone, even for a money-spinning behemoth like Amazon.

Patrick Egan

Currently, drones are mainly used by consumer hobbyists in restricted spaces that are neither too large nor too crowded. Using them for commercial delivery opens up a whole new set of use cases and engineering possibilities. According to Nicholas Pilkington, chief technology officer at DroneDeploy, a company that makes SaaS software for drone operations, these use cases dictate the technology used in drones. “Hobbyists like to push the range and performance of drones,” he explains. “Whereas delivery drones place great emphasis on reliability and safety.”

Basso explains the challenge for delivery drones, in terms of pickup and delivery points. “The pickup end (where drones will fitted with payloads or shipments) poses less safety challenges and can be more controlled,” he says, adding that swapping batteries and picking up objects is a touch mechanical engineering challenge.

However, things could get complicated at the delivery end.

For example, there is the possibility that a drone might crash into a customer’s driveway or land incorrectly (and damage the shipment). “If this (mishap) happens, then the drone goes from a flying lawnmower to a falling lawnmower,” says Basso. According to him, hobbyist drones are programmed to land for trigger events, such as loss of GPS or communication with a safety pilot. “Delivery drones would have to be even more automated, with the ability to sense and avoid unplanned obstacles,” he explains.

“We are trying to move into a space that is already occupied and that is National Aerospace,” says Egan. According to him, technology and standards that delineate the airspace between manned and unmanned aircraft (such as drones) will help simplify implementation and reduce regulatory challenges for commercial applications of drones.

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Have humans become so desensitized that we’re not going to be bugged by drones buzzing by our ears? Is it not enough that we are constantly over-stimulated by what’s on the ground that we need to fill the sky with blight?