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So GW has had a few bumper years of success recently with higher sales, popularity and new and interesting products which they have certainly been pushing hard - eg contrast.

At the same time, they have also made the "main" hobby much more expensive, with price rises, re-do of codexes and the general bloat of rules and books they like so much. So much so, that to me it seems they will inevitably crash as the game starts to further enter the realm of "prohibitively expensive".

My best example of this is for children. You want a game to continue as long as GW has - you need to get kids playing it. They then get others, turn into adults and have more disposable income. Realistically however, which kid can afford it these days?

They won’t crash unfortunately, at the moment they are looking for the tipping point at which the “special customers” stop buying.

So they keep increasing prices on new releases until one bombs and then next release they role back to the previous most successful price point.
At that stage to keep profits increasing they would most probably increase prices on old kits that are still selling well. Another option is to increase the number of books produced and the churn of books required to play.
The final options is to start producing stand alone games in which the cost of the new miniatures can be disguised by providing a look at all this other stuff you get in the box element with cheap cardboard. You could also produce cheap throwaway boxed “games” using existing miniatures that are not selling well.

I honestly think we have 12 months before the 1st £50 unit box is released and vehicles hit £75 for basic tanks. I used to think that GW were underestimating there customers being suckers who were completely price insensitive, turns out I was overestimating the core of GW’s customers.

Say for example the SoB are released at above GSC prices and despite the hype all 5 SoB players don’t buy into them and they bomb. GW then has 2 possibilities either the prices for the army were too high or there was no real demand beyond a manipulated survey. Ok not a good example because they would just write it off as no demand but you get the idea.

Your last point is especially laughable and comical, because not only the 7th ed Valkyrie shown dumber things (like being able to throw the troopers without parachutes out of its hatches, no harm done) - Irbis

DnD did indeed crash, it just got bought out by another company and did much better for a time though it also had some major hiccups with that. While DnD is a popular brand for recognition much of that comes from being such an old product that currently is being handled by a mostly competent company.

However, it came very close to crashing out forever in its past.

GW however is going pretty well but have no illusions nothing lasts forever, either life or companies. At this point, I'd say GW will keep going strong but once its current long standing base all either move on or stop buying ?

I can't see younger generations keeping it afloat as modeling, painting and the time taken to play a 40k game isn't what most younger gens want to be bothered with as well as spending the vast amount of money this hobby costs. It's all about the tech these days.

That said I can see GW lasting for quite some time with specialist games, smaller things and IP uses such as comp games and mobile games but the core business model may die off for them as people move away from these kinds of hobbies but the lore and feel of warhammer will be around for quite awhile yet unless something unseen happens to cause otherwise.

I think the only way for GW to stop making money is, if their main income source wouldn't be both able and interested in buying their models, and that could happen for various reasons in the future. That is as normal stuff goes. Other stuff could include wars, normal and tax, plastic tax implemented by an eco friendly goverment, huge spike in cost of molds to make the plastic models, crazy dudes exploding inside the nothingam HQ damaging the manufacturing facility etc.

They seem to be more then safe for the next decade or so. with most players being men over 20 in the 30s, the income of the fan base is only going to go up, which means that even if the player base were to shrink, they can always rise prices.

GW has a unique position in miniature wargaming because by and large its the main introduction point for the vast majority of people. It's no surprise either; they put the most money into outreach.

Schools programs, scouts and other hobby group programs, stores on the highstreet, a lot of 3rd party product lines in computer games, a huge library of books etc...

GW is very active in outreach and getting their name out there in the world and drawing people into their games. I figure that they are setting a powerful groundwork today to establish a big fresh wave of gamers who will steadily mature into the next adult generation. It's a very smart move because a lot of hobby blocks often have a huge generational gap that steadily develops and their falloff isn't so much the product failing, but the fact that a huge portion of their customer base gets old at the same time, drops out of supporting at hte same time and lacks the energy, drive and age distribution in local groups to actually recruit new younger members.

GW is working like mad to ensure that doesn't happen for them. Plus most of the other wargame companies honestly rely on GW to signal boost the hobby in general. Esp now that things like PP's Press Ganger system are gone and they appear to be a bit on the rocks in terms of recruitment. Meanwhile you've got game systems like Infinity which are clearly more geared toward the experienced model builder/painter/player.

GW has been up front that their current growth is not a sustainable long term view for them and that not only will their release rate eventually steady off, but that their growth will too. Which is a very sensible thing; they are not chasing that white elephant of continual growth and continual profit increases.
They've also got a powerful trump card that they don't take out loans for most of their expansion and investment. This means that when economic times get hard and sales are down; GW isn't left holding a lot of rising debt that they have to keep paying off. About the biggest thing that they hold that costs them would be their highstreet stores - however they are a fickle thing because they often promote local interest and keep the game going locally.

Though if push came to shove they could retire a bunch of them and at least make a massive saving if they really hit terrible times - though it would be a short term resolution that could cost them more in the long run in lost interest in those regions and lost money in the future re-investing in new stores.

AngryAngel80 wrote:DnD did indeed crash, it just got bought out by another company and did much better for a time though it also had some major hiccups with that. While DnD is a popular brand for recognition much of that comes from being such an old product that currently is being handled by a mostly competent company.

However, it came very close to crashing out forever in its past.

GW however is going pretty well but have no illusions nothing lasts forever, either life or companies. At this point, I'd say GW will keep going strong but once its current long standing base all either move on or stop buying ?

I can't see younger generations keeping it afloat as modeling, painting and the time taken to play a 40k game isn't what most younger gens want to be bothered with as well as spending the vast amount of money this hobby costs. It's all about the tech these days.

That said I can see GW lasting for quite some time with specialist games, smaller things and IP uses such as comp games and mobile games but the core business model may die off for them as people move away from these kinds of hobbies but the lore and feel of warhammer will be around for quite awhile yet unless something unseen happens to cause otherwise.

D&D also had the unique position of having someone at the head who actively hated the players, hated Gygax, hated playtesting, and in general tried to actively ruin the company in support of her own products because she had the license for buck rogers stuff that she got royalties on.. It was very unique in how it crashed, but the CEO certainly certainly tried their hardest to do their best to ruin the company.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2019/09/07 10:03:27

AngryAngel80 wrote:DnD did indeed crash, it just got bought out by another company and did much better for a time though it also had some major hiccups with that. While DnD is a popular brand for recognition much of that comes from being such an old product that currently is being handled by a mostly competent company.

However, it came very close to crashing out forever in its past.

GW however is going pretty well but have no illusions nothing lasts forever, either life or companies. At this point, I'd say GW will keep going strong but once its current long standing base all either move on or stop buying ?

I can't see younger generations keeping it afloat as modeling, painting and the time taken to play a 40k game isn't what most younger gens want to be bothered with as well as spending the vast amount of money this hobby costs. It's all about the tech these days.

That said I can see GW lasting for quite some time with specialist games, smaller things and IP uses such as comp games and mobile games but the core business model may die off for them as people move away from these kinds of hobbies but the lore and feel of warhammer will be around for quite awhile yet unless something unseen happens to cause otherwise.

oddly the D & D problem isnt to different to what GW are currently doing, pumping out an absolute mountain of product, of massively variable quality, to the point people just gave up buying and muddled through with homebrew, difference being TSR's shaky cashflow and interesting management choices meant it wasn't going to end well

GW do at least know that and seem fairly stable in their finances, so barring any outright insanity (like 9th following the psykik wotsit story) they'll stay healthy enough

"AND YET YOU ACT AS IF THERE IS SOME IDEAL ORDER IN THE WORLD, AS IF THERE IS SOME...SOME RIGHTNESS IN THE UNIVERSE BY WHICH IT MAY BE JUDGED."

As far as younger people all being into tech, that actually has the potential to work in GWs favour long term, at least to a degree.

These things work in cycles, and it's likely we see some level of technological burnout, both from individuals who spent their who teens playing online games everyday and more broadly from sections of society. These individuals will like specifically seek out something more 'real' as an alternative to technology.

Basically I think there's always going to be a healthy market for something that involves physical miniatures and painting.

I not sure they will crash soon, but I have wonder if there playerbase is dropping as they get higher investments from single players. With things like forge world, are they getting single players that invest heavily into a army.
And with primaris marines a clear indicator of them trying to move into a new marine line. I wonder if they had started to see a marine drop. Maybe not much yet, but it takes time to shift as well.

For me, and the players I can discuss things with. The heavy marine release see a huge bleed of players over the years. With a feeling of if I do not get anything with this release, not to even expect something again for a few years.

Don't most hobbies in life become more expensive relative to inflation? I am sure people that are keen photographers are paying way more for stuff today compared to 10 years ago. Keen fisherman are probably paying more today for the most up to date kits.

It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

Elfric wrote:Don't most hobbies in life become more expensive relative to inflation? I am sure people that are keen photographers are paying way more for stuff today compared to 10 years ago. Keen fisherman are probably paying more today for the most up to date kits.

It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

One issue I think, speaking from aus prices.
A single box of primaris marines is more than a PS4 game brand new, codexes only a bit cheaper.

How fast it’s climbing could be worrying here, and I know it effects how many people get into the hobby(not just GW hobby) when it’s the first prices they see, as well as rules that are dodgy. It all ads up to a product that feels cheaper than the cost GW asks for it.

Failing probably not great, but I think GW needs a really good kick to get the stuff together in some places.

In 10-20 years GW will no longer be able to produce distinctly higher quality minis than the average consumer will be able to with their personal 3d printer, at that point their revenue streams will be limited to 3d modelling schematics, rules, novels and loaning out their IP to game companies.

If they continue making good rules, good models and the culture of the world is friendly towards them then they can keep things going with a 2-20 man team for at least 50 years, but they'll be nowhere near as profitable. In 300 years we'll be extinct or in a post-scarcity economy, so GW could potentially keep chugging as a small operation maintained by a few fire souls and some AI assistants or a master AI and some smart programs.

Sumilidon wrote:My best example of this is for children. You want a game to continue as long as GW has - you need to get kids playing it. They then get others, turn into adults and have more disposable income. Realistically however, which kid can afford it these days?

I think the problem with this is that you're looking at it through the lens of one particular way of playing the game. With 3 ways to play, and the way the basic ruleset is then built on with additional layers of complexity, I think one could make the argument that 40K is more accessible to new players than it's ever been before. If you're a kid and you just want to dip your toe into the game, you can just get, say, the Know No Fear set, which gives you everything you need for you and a pal to dive straight into the game and start playing. All the other stuff can then subsequently build on that. Whereas previously, it was more of a case of "Right, before you even get going, you need an HQ, two Troops, this massive rulebook and a codex" – now it's a lot easier to dive straight into the basic game and then, if you feel so inclined, expand from there.

AngryAngel80 wrote:I can't see younger generations keeping it afloat as modeling, painting and the time taken to play a 40k game isn't what most younger gens want to be bothered with as well as spending the vast amount of money this hobby costs. It's all about the tech these days.

People have been making this argument to predict the demise of tabletop wargaming ever since I've been involved in it, which is pushing 30 years now. I'll believe it when I see it. One might even make the argument that there's a greater concern with people spending too much time in front of screens now than there ever has been before, and that's a good thing for anything that can sell itself on the basis of being something you can do away from a screen.

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vict0988 wrote:In 10-20 years GW will no longer be able to produce distinctly higher quality minis than the average consumer will be able to with their personal 3d printer, at that point their revenue streams will be limited to 3d modelling schematics, rules, novels and loaning out their IP to game companies.

I'm not wholly convinced this is necessarily true. After all, it's not like the advent of readily-available home printing killed the print industry.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/09/07 11:25:48

People have been making this argument to predict the demise of tabletop wargaming ever since I've been involved in it, which is pushing 30 years now. I'll believe it when I see it. One might even make the argument that there's a greater concern with people spending too much time in front of screens now than there ever has been before, and that's a good thing for anything that can sell itself on the basis of being something you can do away from a screen.

Absolutely agree. Parents will see it as a positive. Yes it's expensive, but so are videogames really. I can see quite a few parents preferring to gift a GW kit and a couple of paints over the new PS4 game.

Then a lot of kids will go through the same shift personally as they enter adulthood - actively seeking out activities that don't involve staring at screens.

GW is analagous to a tabacco company. Instead of their customer base dying due to health related issues they get older and priorities change for whatever reason.

They need a continuous replenishment of new long term customers. Also, to some extent they are reliant on their existing customer base getting new people into the GW hobby.

How could GW crash? Possibly with a simultaneous release of a staggeringly awful new ruleset for both 40K and AoS? However, being realistic that wouldn't necessarily cause a 'crash' or anything like an insolvency scenario as people would just play previous editions.

TLDR: GW won't crash but they could do something monumentally stupid which seriously affects the bottom line.

Please note, for those of you who play Chaos Daemons as a faction the term "Daemon" is potentially offensive. Instead, please play codex "Chaos: Mortally Challenged". Thank you.

NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:GW is analagous to a tabacco company. Instead of their customer base dying due to health related issues they get older and priorities change for whatever reason.

They need a continuous replenishment of new long term customers. Also, to some extent they are reliant on their existing customer base getting new people into the GW hobby.

How could GW crash? Possibly with a simultaneous release of a staggeringly awful new ruleset for both 40K and AoS? However, being realistic that wouldn't necessarily cause a 'crash' or anything like an insolvency scenario as people would just play previous editions.

TLDR: GW won't crash but they could do something monumentally stupid which seriously affects the bottom line.

NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:GW is analagous to a tabacco company. Instead of their customer base dying due to health related issues they get older and priorities change for whatever reason.

They need a continuous replenishment of new long term customers. Also, to some extent they are reliant on their existing customer base getting new people into the GW hobby.

How could GW crash? Possibly with a simultaneous release of a staggeringly awful new ruleset for both 40K and AoS? However, being realistic that wouldn't necessarily cause a 'crash' or anything like an insolvency scenario as people would just play previous editions.

TLDR: GW won't crash but they could do something monumentally stupid which seriously affects the bottom line.

7th came pretty damn close.

There were a lot of factors at play there. Sigmar release hurt the too, as did many other poor decisions of that regime.

The current higher ups seem a lot more savvy. Community engagement alone has been so much better.

NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:GW is analagous to a tabacco company. Instead of their customer base dying due to health related issues they get older and priorities change for whatever reason.

They need a continuous replenishment of new long term customers. Also, to some extent they are reliant on their existing customer base getting new people into the GW hobby.

How could GW crash? Possibly with a simultaneous release of a staggeringly awful new ruleset for both 40K and AoS? However, being realistic that wouldn't necessarily cause a 'crash' or anything like an insolvency scenario as people would just play previous editions.

TLDR: GW won't crash but they could do something monumentally stupid which seriously affects the bottom line.

7th came pretty damn close.

Whilst I don't disagree as such, HH is still going strong and that runs on Windows Millenium...erm I mean 7th ed.

Please note, for those of you who play Chaos Daemons as a faction the term "Daemon" is potentially offensive. Instead, please play codex "Chaos: Mortally Challenged". Thank you.

Honestly the previous CEO and upper staff appeared to mostly have just a huge set of blinkers on them. I think their problem was they both isolated themselves from their market too much (Kirby was famous for saying he didn't need user feedback or surveys or such); they also cut way too many communication ties to the point where existing fans were left information starved (GW of that age tried the internet - got bitten - and ran away).

They also appeared to be more focused on the shareholder returns than the company and product. The irony being that all those years chasing the fast profit return on investment didn't actually raise the profile half as much as listening and reacting to and giving the actual customers what they wanted.

AoS was the culmination of that era and it was probably a good thing all told. It brought a sledgehammer crashing down on the old structure and approaches and, whilst it was darn painful, it has resulted in a GW today that is far removed in many ways. They are running marketing 365 days a year; putting out podcasts, twitch feeds, news, comics, articles etc... on an honestly amazing scale. The investment in marketing and community outreach is quite staggering. The turn around is extreme from almost nothing to everything.

Sure price rises still happen, somemodels still vanish without warning; there are still areas to improve upon and we also had the FW mess of marketing with overseas prices rising dramatically after GW marketed a price reduction on shipping.

It's not perfect, but its a massive improvement.

Also I'd say GW are being really smart. With many hands on hobbies suffering an increasing ageing fanbase and dwindling younger fanbase; GW is pushing back hard against the digital trend and pushing itself into the younger markets. With a lot of other craft hobbies on the down and things like airfix no longer in the market - GW could really be setting the ground work to really steal what is left of that market and grow it. That's a powerful thing to achieve when the only other major creative toy around from that era is Lego who have done similar things (like game tie-ins) but have also twinned themselves with a lot of major movie franchises.

NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:GW is analagous to a tabacco company. Instead of their customer base dying due to health related issues they get older and priorities change for whatever reason.

They need a continuous replenishment of new long term customers. Also, to some extent they are reliant on their existing customer base getting new people into the GW hobby.

How could GW crash? Possibly with a simultaneous release of a staggeringly awful new ruleset for both 40K and AoS? However, being realistic that wouldn't necessarily cause a 'crash' or anything like an insolvency scenario as people would just play previous editions.

TLDR: GW won't crash but they could do something monumentally stupid which seriously affects the bottom line.

7th came pretty damn close.

Whilst I don't disagree as such, HH is still going strong and that runs on Windows Millenium...erm I mean 7th ed.

7th’s most glaring flaws were codex creep and formations, something HH largely avoids. As a rules set it wasn’t that much worse then other editions.

I worry about GW raising the price of entry too much. I look at the costs these days and wonder how kids these days can afford it? $100 tanks, $40 monopose characters? Sure, the start collection boxes, starter sets, and other “deal” boxes can bring the price down. But the cost of the individual kits is getting out of control. Now it might just be the old Grognard in me still has my internal price meter calibrated for when I was paying 95 cents for a gallon of gas, but it seems crazy.
And as a wargame, we need fresh blood. Without opponents, where would be be? All the outreach and advertising is not going to help if kids can’t afford to plonk the cash on the barrelhead to pick up a playable army.

vict0988 wrote:In 10-20 years GW will no longer be able to produce distinctly higher quality minis than the average consumer will be able to with their personal 3d printer, at that point their revenue streams will be limited to 3d modelling schematics, rules, novels and loaning out their IP to game companies.

I'm not wholly convinced this is necessarily true. After all, it's not like the advent of readily-available home printing killed the print industry.

That's a good point, on the other hand, can the average person bind a book at home? What finishing touch can GW deliver that a future 3d printer cannot? Unless GW starts selling assembled and painted miniatures then I don't see how they can compete. The book publishing industry is being helped by libraries collecting books and loaning them out. Game stores are dying and GW and Hasbro prefer the direct to consumer profit rates to going through a third party to sell or loan out their miniatures. If people aren't buying miniatures to support their local game store, choosing instead to game in club houses or at private homes and 3d printing is cheaply available and produces models of the exact same quality, then what reason do you have to buy models from GW? Tournaments that check for whether a model is correct? GW sending their lawyers after people that publish models that look anything like their IP? I think 3d printing is the future for tabletop wargaming, I already have some buddies that 3d print their DnD minis.

Thing is a console or gaming quality PC is many hundreds of £/$ already. And most of those require an update every so many years and that's without buying a single game. Different markets might vary, but in general a new AAA title is still around the same price as many warhammer models.

Plus today GW has made a LOT more focus on things like Killteam and Warcry. Small games that you can get into. Now they always had them in the past, but they were never marketed all that heavily as their own thing. They were more tacked onto the side of the main game. With them being their own thing and being marketed like they are its an ideal avenue for the gamer with less money and/or time to play.

Also Warhammer has always been the "expensive" kids toy. It was the same 20 years ago. However many of its costs are often overblown somewhat, esp once you actually start comparing the mid to end costs against other hobbies. Many hobbies are cheaper to start or have smaller individual costs (eg Magic the Gathering packs are dirt cheap); but the total cost of what gets spent can actually come out quite similar.

Inflation has also taken a hit on prices, heck someone earlier mentioned camera gear and I saw the prices on most camera lenses increase by near double on many of the upper end gear. This was done through straight price rises, but also new versions with vastly inflated prices over the originals.

Almost everything has gone up in price, about the only thing that has really lagged is computer games; however the AAA prices have been steadily creeping up over the past few years; though they've also been hiding it with micro transactions and such too. Once £30 was the top price; now consoles are mostly hitting the £40 on average whilst many are getting much higher into the £60 bracket at launch. Micro transactions of course can dramatically raise that. Some also launch at a lower price but do day 1 DLC which, whilst its often disliked, does get the base game price down on launch day.

Of course different markets work differently. A top end camera lens might last you 20 years or more; a computer game will devalue super fast and heck there are some already appearing on humble bundle and such for almost nothing only a few years later.

vict0988 wrote:In 10-20 years GW will no longer be able to produce distinctly higher quality minis than the average consumer will be able to with their personal 3d printer, at that point their revenue streams will be limited to 3d modelling schematics, rules, novels and loaning out their IP to game companies.

I'm not wholly convinced this is necessarily true. After all, it's not like the advent of readily-available home printing killed the print industry.

That's a good point, on the other hand, can the average person bind a book at home? What finishing touch can GW deliver that a future 3d printer cannot?

The fact that the product in the box comes out in 100% working order.
No fussing with loading a machine with raw materials; no dealing with increased cleanup; no faffing with it when the thing fails to cast or picks up an error etc... The home 3D printer has a long way to go before its idiot proof. Heck many people at home can't use a home printer and deal with basic problems like running out of toner or printing errors.

Plus lets not forget that currently even once its cast from the 3D printer you've still got to clean and paint it so its not actually saving all that much time over clipping parts out and clean and assembling them. In fact it might cut nothing out at all if you were home printing a sprue for custom building into different poses.

Now if the 3D printer could print a high quality pre-painted model that might change things, but I think that's avery long way off. Plus the "hobby" itself still involves a lot of own painting and "your model" stuff. Pre painted is an entirely different market in many ways, even though they share a lot of the same customers.

Honestly there are many products we buy off the shelf that we could make ourselves.Heck look at food. There has never been a time when cooking TV programs, books and machines for the kitchen have been better. You can buy everything you need and turn out really good quality food very easily. Yet many people instead eat out or they buy pre-made stuff. They don't buy a fish and batter it at home; they buy a pre-battered cod and just heat it up.
If anything the pre-cooked/prepared or eating out markets have grown significantly right alongside the rise in the ease of home cooking whilst the actual volume of home cooking has dropped off dramatically.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2019/09/07 12:34:20

BoomWolf wrote:What's with the hate boner stone people in dakka have for GW...

They are dying better than ever and you guys are thinking "gosh I hope they are going down"... Wtf...

Well their prices are still horrendously high, especially if you want to / are playing a faction that involves a lot of disposable units, they are killing the conversion and kitbashing aspects of the hobby (see: The ork buggies), balance and game flow is still a bit wonky and feels drawn out, which is ironic considering how 8th ed is supposed to be stream lined.
8th ed is only better when compared to 6th and 7th, imo. 4th ed was better. Games were faster, infantry still mattered and there were no Knights / LoWs.

So there are reasons for wanting GW to take a big hit out of hope that they might improve. Or just die out of spite.
Personally I don't really want that. I just want the hobby to be about hobbying again, instead of just buying whatever terrain kit GW wants you to buy.

Bringing out box sets of 15-20 models would be nice too, as that would help out horde players. You should be always be able to max out a squad with just 2 box sets, imo.
Orks need about 3-6 boxes to max out a unit. Necrons need 3 sets of warriors to max out scarabs, which is goofy as hell, especially when scarabs aren't even troops and will leave you with 16 extra warriors. Which is fine, its more models, unless you already have enough warriors and want to max out everything in your army for completion's sake. They also need 3 sets to max out tomb blades and 4 to max out flayed ones, but flayed ones are gak models so who cares.

This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2019/09/07 13:29:45

I don’t know how things are at large but I still see a fair number of kids getting into the hobby on a regular basis. Far from drawing people away from it, the internet actually seems to help grow the hobby in places. When I got involved back in the day I would have loved to have had access to forums and group chats to help seek advice and share what I’ve done. Things feel so much bigger these dats