Hello Razzballers! Sorry the article is up late- I was experiencing some technical difficulties! This week, the “buy lows” and “sell highs” are heavily influenced by playoff matchups. Some of the sell highs are very talented and valuable players, but have brutal playoff schedules and other undesirable features. It’s becoming that time of year where you have to worry about playoff matchups, and I’m sure you can get a pretty penny in return for some of these guys. As usual, please give me and my colleague follows on Twitter- we will be more than happy to answer questions there as well as here: @AsherMolk and @BraudeM

ALSO: IN YOUR COMMENTS/QUESTIONS, PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHEN THE TRADE DEADLINE FOR YOUR LEAGUE IS. If most of your deadlines are passing, then there isn’t much point in continuing this column if you cannot trade anymore this year- I’d rather focus my efforts on helping you guys in other ways (matchups, start/sits, etc.) But if there are a decent number of people still trading, I will happily continue this column!

Buying low and selling high is quite simple: getting players whose actual value is more than their perceived value, and trading away players whose actual value is less than their perceived value. This works best on impatient owners who just look at box scores, and don’t actually watch players or pay attention to their situation.

Before we get started, there are a few common pieces of advice that I gave to many readers about trading and adding players. I’d like to share them with you:

Trading away two decent/good players for one great player is almost always a great idea. Usually, the person getting the one (presumably better) player wins the deal.

NEVER lead with your best or final trade offer! Instead, start small, even offer deals they probably won’t do to start with. This doesn’t mean offer Mason Crosby for Ryan Mathews, but you never know what a person may say yes to, it’s often quite surprising. If you lead with your best offer, you have nowhere to go but down. Start by being a little optimistic…

If there are quality players on your waiver wire that you want but you do not know whom to drop, let go of your kicker and/or defense for that player. You can always make a trade to make roster space, or make a game-time decision on whom you want to drop. A lot can happen in a week, and you don’t want to miss out on the next Miles Austin or Brandon Lloyd just because you think Sebastian Janikowski will average 1 more point per game than Olindo Mare.

Target owners who are close to the bottom of the standings – they are probably the most willing to do a desperation move in order to shake up their team. Also, make sure to target players the owner is likely frustrated with.

And we’re off with some playoff buy lows and sell highs:

BUY LOW

Santana Moss, WR, WAS and Fred Davis, TE, WAS- I know its odd to like two pass catchers on the Redskins, but hear me out. As many of you remember, Santana Moss broke his hand in week 7, and hasn’t seen the field since. But when he was on the gridiron, he was one of the few bright spots in Washington this year. For the 5 games he played in full, he averaged a very respectable 4.6 catches for 57 yards with two scores as Sexy Rexy Grossman’s favorite target. There is a very real chance that he returns by week 12, and it’s all but a guarantee that he returns for the playoffs. In said playoffs, he gets the 32nd ranked pass defense in week 14, the 17th ranked pass defense in week 15, and the 30th ranked pass defense in week 16. With Leonard Hankerson limping to injured reserve, Santana Moss is the only playmaker at WR for the Redskins. At this point, you would probably have to give very little to acquire him. Heck, he may even be on the waiver wire. But it’s more than possible that he gives decent WR3 numbers down the stretch, and at a very low price. As for Fred Davis, he’s been a TE1 most of the year- in 5 out of 9 games, he’s had at least 80 receiving yards. More good news coming up: here are his remaining opponents’ ranks in regards to fantasy points given up to tight ends- 2nd most, 4th most, 8th most, 23rd most, 17th most, and 13th most. Moss and Davis are the only two dynamic pass catching options in Washington, and if nothing else, Rex Grossman and John Beck know this- Moss is averaging 8.2 targets per games he’s finished, and Davis is averaging over 7 targets per game this year.

Wes Welker, WR, NE and Aaron Hernandez, TE, NE- After a historic start to the season, Welker has come back to Earth. Having surpassed 46 yards just once the past 4 games, some impatient owners may think its time to sell. But this is why we target these kinds of owners- its very possible his superhuman September set expectations too high. The kind of paces he was on were unsustainable. Now is the perfect time to strike- the Patriots passing game is once again rolling on all cylinders. Defenses will now be forced to focus more on Gronkowski- his most recent hot streak can only help Welker. The cherries on top? The Patriots are obviously in the thick of the playoff race and won’t even get the opportunity to rest their starters in the fantasy playoff weeks. In weeks 13-16, they get the 21st, 9th, 20th, and 25th ranked pass defenses. He will be a top 3 WR1 during those weeks, and he may be available at a bargain right now. All of this applies to Aaron Hernandez (who has appeared as a buy low before) as well. Its becoming clear that Gronkowski is beginning to pass Hernandez in the pecking order, but that is subject to change. Tom Brady will throw to whoever is open, and Hernandez is capable of huge games because he creates matchup problems and unlike Gronkowski he never, ever blocks.

James Starks, RB, GB- Watch the Green Bay Packers play, and try to pry your eyes from Aaron Rodgers for a second (I know, its very tough). Take a second and compare how Ryan Grant looks and how James Starks looks, its like night and day- Grant looks like he is moving in slow motion compared to Starks. The Packers are not stupid, and they realize that Starks needs to be featured more in the offense. This is evidenced by their carry distribution since October: 37 for Grant, and 77 for Starks. Their reception distribution since October is equally telling: 4 for Grant, 16 for Starks. There are two more factors working in Stark’s favor- the weather and the schedule. Even Aaron Rodgers (probably) cannot keep the dial above freezing or maybe even above 0 once December begins- this will force them to give the ground game at least a few more opportunities per game. The schedule works in favor of that as well: in weeks 13-16, the Packers get the following ranked rushing defenses: 20th, 25th, 26th, and 13th. Starks will likely lose goal line duties to Kuhn, but look no further if you are searching for a fantastic flex option for the stretch run.

SELL HIGH

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG- Before I get into this analysis, I want to say that I absolutely love Hakeem Nicks. He is an unbelievable talent with tremendous after the catch ability, athleticism and body control- he is an upper-tier WR1 on draft day and throughout the regular season. But there are a few causes for concern here. First of all, he has suffered the dreaded hamstring strain recently- something that is always prone to reaggravation. Secondly (and just as worrisome, if not more) is his schedule. In weeks 14, 15 and 16 he faces some tough pass defenses: the Cowboys (allowing the 9th least fantasy points allowed to wide receivers), the Redskins (6th least) and the Jets (2nd least)- it’s optimal to not have your WR1 on Revis Island in championship week. Usually, a plethora of targets and force-feeding can make up for some of these problems, but that’s yet another issue. Why force the ball to Nicks when Manningham, Victor Cruz, and even Jake Ballard are all playing at very high levels? Eli Manning knows this: on the season, he’s targeted Nicks only once more than Victor Cruz and only 3 more times than Manningham. This doesn’t mean go trade away Nicks for nothing, he is still a great guy to have. I’d just be trying to turn him into a more reliable option with a better schedule.

Frank Gore, RB, SF- Like Hakeem Nicks, I really do like Frank Gore. After a slow start, he lead many fantasy teams to W’s when he went 5 straight games with 100+ rushing yards and 4 scores. But he has almost identical problems to Nicks. He has a nagging ankle injury and a knee bruise, and the injuries aren’t likely to stop there- a 28 year old RB with the kind of tread on his tires and bruising running style are prone to dings and dents like this. His schedule isn’t exactly the easiest either: although he gets Arizona in week 14 (average run defense), he gets the top 7 Steelers run D in week 15 and the underrated 12th ranked Seahawks run defense in championship week. Also, Jim Harbaugh has publicly said that its possible that Gore’s workload could be reduced down the stretch, hinting that he has a lot of confidence (and rightly so) in explosive rookie Kendall Hunter. Again, do not undersell him- he’s got lots of value. But do not be afraid to pull the trigger if the price is right.

Steven Jackson, RB, STL- With the arrival of Josh McDaniels and the amount of wear and tear Jackson had been through, many folks (including myself) were a little down on Steven Jackson at the beginning of this year. But he rewound the clock, averaging over 100 total yards per game as the passing game sputtered. But the schedule becomes absolutely brutal from here on out (viewer discretion is advised): Seattle’s 12th ranked rush defense in week 11, then 21st ranked Arizona, 1st ranked San Francisco, 12th ranked Seattle again, 2nd ranked Cincinnati, and then 7th ranked Pittsburgh in championship week (and for good measure, 1st ranked SanFran again in week 17). Besides Brandon Lloyd, there is no semblance of any reliable passing game weapons on the Rams, which will allow defenses to dare St. Louis to beat them through the air. This is not a running back I would want to count on to carry me through the stretch run, even as an RB2. There are simply too many great rush defenses to overcome here.

Here are a few more tidbits:

Keep Buying/More Buy Lows- Mario Manningham, Dez Bryant, Percy Harvin, Roddy White, Jonathan Stewart, Michael Vick (very risky, but has the potential for dominance that could take you to the promised land), Cedric Benson (I hate his talent and I mentioned him as a sell high, but his schedule is a dream)

If this is indeed my last article, it has been an absolute pleasure writing these articles, answering questions and hearing feedback- I am sincere in saying this. I know I wasn’t right 100% of the time, but I am incredibly appreciative of you guys being supportive, and I hope I have helped you all in some way. Hopefully I’ll write more this year, and happy trading!

I have Steven Jackson and was thinking about selling (because of the brutal playoff schedule), but not sure who to target, RB-wise? I mean you wouldn’t trade him for Starks right? I was thinking like Bradshaw, but he has a tough schedule too. Who do you see being a worthy sneaky return?

Since this is may be the last article you write, I’m going let you know how my team has ended up because of your articles and my amazing GM skills.

QB — Vick (traded Stafford for him); picked up Carson Palmer (waiver) to back Vick up.
RBs — Arian Foster and Run DMC. I’m in the process of picking up their handcuffs. Got Bush (just traded “CJdoing better” him — figure I probably won’t use him ahead of these guys) and working on Tate. (Also, I was lucky enough to get Demarco Murray off waivers.
WRs —- Andre Johnson (traded Tebow and Best for him five weeks ago….. he’s going to be like a Christmas present to me when he finally plays), Dez (traded Maclin for him) and Manningham (traded Daniel Thomas and Eli Manning for him); Santonio Holmes (waiver); and Miles Austin — traded for him when he went down again.
TE- Aaron Hernandez
K-Dan Bailey
DEF — weekly picks

People in my league are calling me the team to beat, but I think there are two other teams in my league that may be better than me.
(I have a couple of more days of trading, so let’s see what happens.)

After looking at this, any more advice? Or should I crown myself fantasy king….?

Hey Asher,
Would like to ask you aswell. Specially since you got Jackson in your sell high section.
I have Vick as my QB. My RBs: Foster, Forte, S.Jackson, Mathews. Would you trade S.Jackson/Ponder for Brees/J.Baldwin? Or should I not do this trade, unless I get rid of Vick for anything else? Dynasty League. Thank you.

So I just traded Michael Bush and Vernon Davis for Jason Witten and Kendall Hunter. It sounds like a lot, but I had Chris Johson sitting on the bench (shady and forte are my other backs) and now I’m playing C. Johnson at Flex and Witten at TE (with Hunter on the bench) as opposed to M. Bush and Davis for the ROS. Did I give up too much? I’m 8-2 and almost guaranteed a playoff spot. I made the move solely to stock up. I wanted a playmaker at TE and Davis just didn’t appear to be that guy. Bush could be huge if McFadden stays out, but I could also see Hunter being the guy for San Fran in the final weeks after they have clinched a playoff spot.

I still have another week until my trade deadline and am hoping to do some serious wheeling and dealing between now and then, so keep it coming! Also, would you trade Demarco for Percy in a ppr league if you already had Sproles, Foster, and Forte? I feel like Demarco is worth more, but I’m having trouble dumping him for what I think he is worth.

I already have Cruz, Santonio and Denarius (who may just blow up now) at WR to go with Ray Rice, Aaron Hernandez. I need another RB (since Best and Hillis are hurt). Should I pull the trigger considering your thoughts on Nicks?

First of all: no one is right 100% of the time…at anything…especially fantasy football where anything can happen on any given week. So thank you for the great articles. I really appreciate them, and your comments were quick and thorough. You helped me with a couple moves, but unfortunately I can’t get my guys to all produce at the same time. Here’s my team for this week:

How’s it going this week? As for me, I lost this week by 4 points thanks to Gore being Gore. Or I could blame it on White for not catching that touch down. Or I can just get over it. However, I would have been in 1st place, but do to the numbers, ties, etc. 7-3 and in 4th place. Shit, this game can be so frustrating, but when you win and kick your buddies ass it’s great. So, Asher I’m back again this week to get some advise and kick some ass.

All the players you mentioned in this weeks article are great buy low candidates. Moss is on wavier and the owners of Starks, Davis, Hernandez, Welker have all approached me for deals.

Yesterday, I got two trade offers
> I’ve been offered Welker and Antonio Gates for R. White, Manningham, Battle.
> I’ve been offered a chance at Hernandez, but may come at a cost. My opponent made a trade proposal Hernandez for Murray. He says it’s to get my attention and he would be willing to work something out. Also, in his note, he mention Ballard . I’m not selling Murray.
> Looking at my team help fill any other gaps thanks. There may not be many cause I’ve following along all season.
Thanks Asher.

PPR League,
I have been offered M.Stafford and R.Mathews for McFadden. I am sitting at 7-3 so I’m comfortable but always want to get better. League starts 2 qbs, 2rbs 2 wr, 1TE and 1 flex. My starters now are Cam/Hasselbeck, F.Jackson, Bush/McFadden, C.Johnson/Steve Smith, J.Graham, Austin/Robinson as my flex. Would you do this trade? Stafford is an upgrade from hasselbeck but Mathews is a step down from McFadden.

my team is 6-4
i am playing the kid i am tied in third place with this week and there are 4 5-5 teams behind me so i figured if i dont win this week i wont make the playoffs ( i am behind in points to 4 of 5 teams i am in contention with )
so if vick doesnt play or plays half a game and with a skeleton lineup ( vin brown and decker vs revis ) i took this chance — my matchup next week should be cake…

i look at it like this vick for eli fitz for graham and colston for jacobs and ingram

the only other trade offered to me was benson for colston from my opponent this week which doesn’t really help me this week

@Gavin: I honestly think that Chris Johnson or Michael Turner are good targets. I really don’t like Turner’s talent, he’s got no burst left. But the schedule is easy and they are committed to him. Chris Johnson’s schedule is unbelievably easy, and they are still giving him the rock.

@super: Fantastic team! Love the moves you’ve made. My only recommendation is trading two of you receivers not named Dez Bryant for an elite guy, like Welker, Calvin or Mike Wallace. But you must be the heavy, heavy favorite and your team is probably going to win without making any moves if everyone stays healthy.

@Steve: If you are really, really worried about Vick and really think you can win this year with Brees, then do it. But I don’t know if getting rid of Vick in dynasty is a great idea. I would probably recommend asking other people because I’m not too knowledgeable about dynasty leagues.

With Gore, Murray, Best, McCoy, Mendenhall, it wouldn’t be worth selling high on Gore right? I have Nicks, Marshall, Crabtree, Jacoby Ford as my wr’s and looking to get Dez, just don’t know how. The person with Dez doesn’t have a rb that I like so I can’t package Gore in the mix. My deadline is the 30th so I still have some time.

@Salty Balty: Thanks! In a vacuum, you gave too much. But since you filled the one weakness on your team, I think its a good trade. Witten is way, way better than Vernon. Hunter is a good stash as well

@Benny: I’d be targeting Turner or even Chris Johnson- great schedules. And I think Palko hurts Bowe significantly- I’d move him for either of those guys in a heartbeat. But I think your best bet is packaging Gore and Bowe for a great RB1, a top 6 kind of guy.

@Fernando: I feel ya! Its really a roller coaster ride…As for your trades, I think I’d take the Gates and Welker deal. Its risky, but its potentially high reward. Gates is very risky because of his foot but he’s still produced. Battle is pretty useless

@Rocky: I think Murray, McCoy and Mendy are fantastic guys- Gore is a little more expendable on your team. Not sure I’d trade him straight up for Dez, but it may be closer than you think. You need some WR help, but you can wait another week if you’d like to make a move.

@Jason: Great question. Gates may have higher upside, but his foot is still a concern and his schedule gets tough- he faces Baltimore and Detroit in weeks 15 and 16, who are giving up the least and the 7th least fantasy points to tight ends, respectively. Hernandez has more competition for targets, but has a much easier pass defense schedule, not to mention a quarterback playing at a much higher level. I’d personally prefer Hernandez, but Gates’s upside makes it very close. Probably a matter of personal preference.

Third, I know you said not to trade Foster for ANYTHING, but I’m trying to acquire him and the owner who has him needs to win out to make the playoffs and he’s on a Bye. Plus, he has major RB and minor WR issues, as he is starting Danny Woodhead and Justin Forsett at RB (with Morris Maurice on the WW), and has either Julio Jones (out?) or Jerome Simpson (0 last wk) as his WR3. I am offering MJD and Crabtree (v. ARI) now, with the thoughts to take it up to MJD and DJax/Branch/Decker w/o thinking about it. Would even consider MJD + Steve Smith or MJD + Marshall.

Any thoughts on the likelihood of getting this done given a desperate owner, or if MJD + Smith/Marshall is too much?

I am considering making a play for Santana Moss with one of my depth RBs. One of Maurice Morris (Doubtful), Chris Ogbonnaya (Questionable), or Lance Ball (Probable) would be swapped for Moss who would become my #3/Bench WR behind Jordy Nelson and Roddy White… its a 16 team league so I worry about trading that lottery ticket RB… Thanks

@Asher Molk: what would you offer for Dez? The guy who has him (who is also my 62 year old Dad) has Bradshaw, so I thought a combo of DJax and Jacobs or something along those lines? Here’s my team again if you’d care to look at it:

I was thinking of offering Gore for Fitz for now. I have Mendy, McCoy, Murray, and Best as other rb’s. My wr’s of Nicks and Marshall carried me so far, but I am liking the attention Fitz is getting. If he rejects, is offering Tony Gonz and Gore too much for Fitz? I still have Gates as my starting te.

@Anal_yst: I’m all for acquiring Arian at almost any price. I traded away Steven Jackson and Steve Smith for Arian and I still feel really good about it. I honestly don’t think that any of that is too much for Arian- try to give away Marshall instead of Smith, if it comes down to that.

@elwood blues: I think it would be a good idea to try and package Steven Jackson and Desean Jackson for a very good RB and a decent WR3. That would be my recommendation, along with trading for Vick- I really like that move.

Thanks for the advice! Just one more idea, how about offering Gore, Nicks, and Tony G for Julio Jones, roddy White and A. Bradshaw? I am curious if you know the deal with Bradshaw’s injury, havent heard much about it.

Hey Asher I wrote that ridiculously long post last week, in which I was trying to acquire AJ Green. We were about to make the trade until someone tipped him off about how valuable he will be as a keeper in the 12th round next year.

My trade deadline is Fri and thanks to your help my team is 10 times better and has some solid depth. I wanted to make a big time trade to help boost my team, without losing much in the keeper league for next year, but I dont think its gonna happen. I know youve said your not an expert in keeper leagues, but I have a few things brewing, so let me know if you think there worth it:

I love the team, but the fact that I can only keep two of them is killing me and I feel like I should trade for draft picks or try to improve.

I like Manningham, but if I go to the finals, Im nervous starting him against the Jets, and I feel like theres no point to have 4 receivers that in the past month have been the top point scorers in the game. If I was going to trade one receiver (keep in mind I could keep Antonio Brown as a 2012 12th round pick or Jordy Nelson as a 10th round pick) who should I trade?

So far Ive been offered:
Jordy Nelson for a 2012 6th round pick (He has Reggie Bush so I offered him Manningham for Bush straight up, but he’s hesitant)

Daniel Thomas (Who I could keep next year as a 7th round pick) and a 5th round pick for Chris Johnson

Nothing offered yet, but he asked what I wanted for James Starks; told him to make an offer first, so Im waiting to hear back (Only offer I could imagine helping me is either Carson Palmer or Jonathan Stewart and “realistically” a 7th round pick)

Do you think any of those are even worth it? Hypothetically if I can get the kid with CJ to do D Thomas and a 6th, Id pretty much just be sending him D Thomas and Jordy Nelson (2 pretty solid keepers) for CJ. I feel like that might just be worth it, but what do you think?

Another kid also has Cedric Benson and Michael Vick and is willing to discuss some sort of trade (Not necessarily with those two involved, but Id love to make a move for them. What is the most you would give up from my squad for those two?

Or again do you think I should just try and ride my team to the promise land?

Sorry for another long post and so many questions, but hey this might be the last time I get a chance to post here

I have McCoy, Foster(bye), and McFadden(out) as my RBs so I’m only going to be starting 2 WRs on a weekly basis when all three of them are in my line up. Do you think the addition of Marshall is a good move for my team or the Bryant/Colston combo is adequate enough?

my qbs are sanchez, hasselbeck, freeman and cutler.. thinking of trading mjd/sanchez for rivers/blount. I already have adrian peterson, fred jackson, greg jennings, andre johnson.. I know rivers is not doing so hot but I think the next few weeks I can get more points than my current qbs. help please.

Do you think it’s a good idea if I trade away Megatron and CJ2K for DeMacro Murray, James Starks, Brandon Lloyd and Jimmy Graham? I have Foster on BYE this week and my FLEX options are weak. My current record is 6-4 and I’m playing somebody who has the same record as me.

I already left a comment (#28) – the guy made a counter-offer. He wants Roddy White from me for Ben Tate. I’ve already clinched a playoff spot. Not sure what I should do here… besides Bowe, I’m a little light in WR area

Brew here again. Great reading as always, my friend. Keep the column going, and keep up the razztastic work. Glad to see you went with my idea of keeping the faith!

Couple of questions for you for this week. 1 points PPR League, I have Michael Bush, CJ2K, and Forte. Which two do I start? Also, at what point do I plug and play QB’s for Rivers? I’m 6-4, I had Schaub but he’s gone indefinitely, lineup is as follows:

As you can see, bye week 11 and injuries have depleted my squad for the week (I also lost Kenny Britt for good, RIP). I am for all intensive purposes without a WR1 for this matchup, though I like Harvin’s upside. Who would you throw the proverbial dice on this week?

@Rocky: Its close, but I’d hold off on that because of Bradshaw. Bradshaw’s prognosis doesn’t seem too sunny- apparently surgery is still a possibility. It looks like he is out again this week, and who knows if he’ll make it back.

I just traded MJD for Wes Welker. That leaves me with Welker, Bowe, VJAX, Crabtree and L. Robinson for WR and Arian Foster and Fredwreck Jackson at RB. Bowe, VJAX and L. Robinson at WR and Welker in my RB/WR Flex.

@Steve: No worries! I think I’d want to consider keeping Jordy Nelson in the 10th- I think he’ll be around a 6th round pick next year anyways. As for the CJ deal, its a pretty risky move especially considering a 5th rounder is a pretty good pick. I’m not convinced of his turnaround, but his schedule is seriously unbelievable- its a “win now” kind of trade. If your gut feeling is that you can beat the other teams in your league with CJ (I don’t know how good your opponents are) then I wouldn’t have a problem making that trade. You have a very good team, and I really like trying to add Carson Palmer, but in Tebow has a great schedule coming up too- don’t panic at all if he’s your starter. Feel free to ask any more questions or if anything here didn’t make sense!

@Sjblunts: I think Bmarsh is on par with Colston. You really have no use for Eli, so its not a bad deal at all. See if you can package Colston and Bmarsh to a team with an elite WR (Welker, Calvin, Wallace) but a below average second WR.

@jenny: If you have a flex option and can start MJD at a flex position, then definitely don’t do it. But if he’s just floating on your bench, Rivers is still an upgrade over those guys. But you are giving away tremendous value- I bet you can get a better QB than Rivers for someone like MJD. I am not a Blount fan at all.

@BrewFreeOrDie: Hey there! Thanks for that idea, I really like it. I’m sitting CJ against a very tough Falcons defense- can’t justify sitting Bush or Forte. As for your wideouts, I’d rank them Harvin, Rice, Douglas. Thanks for reading, and feel free to ask any follow up questions!

@nostrathomas: In your situation, I like the move, and here’s why: You have absolute studs at RB, and needed depth at WR- VJax is inconsistent, Bowe lost his QB, and Robinson may go back to being the 4th option at WR when Austin gets back. I know you played MJD at flex and thats where Welker is now, but at least it opens up the opportunity to play Ben Tate as a flex instead of someone like Robinson or even Bowe if it comes down to it while inserting Welker into a WR slot. I think its a wash at worst. Not a bad trade at all.

Asher – I got the Foster deal done, but had to work in a third team who had Tolbert. Got AF for MJD and Marsh (to team 3 who had Tolbert), and the guy w/ AF got MJD and Tolbert. Feel good about it, provided Foster doesn’t get hurt (fingers crossed…of course, MJD could get hurt, as injuries are fairly random).

Last question for you is as follows: I am tied for #1 in the league (I’m top scorer, and top 2 get byes) and almost guaranteed to make playoffs.

I have one pickup left this week (2 per wk, used my first on Morris), and I have Owen Daniels at TE. Ballard on the wire, so the obvious call is to pick him up (have empty roster spot after the 2 for 1 deal).

BUT, even with no TE, I am a 15pt favorite to win, and he has Vick (spread becomes 25pts if Vick is out). I noted that you were a buy low on Santana Moss (who is on the wire), so do I forgo the 5-15pts from Ballard and pick up Moss now, or do I chance it that Moss will be on the wire on Tuesday? There are 2 big Redskins fans in the league who will no doubt hear that Moss is back next week when they watch the game this Sunday. How good is Moss looking in Wk’s 14-16 that I could risk not starting a TE this week to assure that I get Moss? Earl Bennett is also sitting on the wire for perspective.

@Anal_yst: I love the long term thinking! If its nearly impossible for you to lose your bye, I’d pick up Moss, especially if you have a need at your WR3 spot. In your position, its important to start gearing up for the playoffs, and I really like that move.

@Sean Taylor Fan: I like that team, and you gotta start Frank Gore. My recommendation would be to package Gore and Denarius Moore or Antonio Brown for an upgrade at RB, or package Boldin and Moore or Brown for an upgrade at WR. Too much depth to be left wasting on your bench.

Hey Asher,
I just proposed a trade and would really appreciate your thoughts on it. I’m playing in just a standard 12 team league, and teetering on a playoff position. The trade deadline is tomorrow and the person I am trading with also has Tom Brady. Thanks!

Jacksonville is available, do I play them over Dallas or Baltimore? I don’t like what B-More has done lately, and Cincy has an above average offense, so I’m torn.

Would you really play VJax over DJax? It’s a toss up right now for me. I think DJax gets a lot of looks with Maclin hurting, but it might also be tough for him with Young throwing the ball. I also don’t trust VJax (especially against my Bears) when he’s so up and down every week.

Brew here. I know you have a ton of replies to make, and I really appreciate how in depth you try to make all of them. One final question in regards to Week 11 for you.

PPR league, with -1 points for a sack for QBs. Right now I have Rivers (was starting Schaub/Rivers), here’s the WW options:

Carson Palmer
Sam Bradford
Vince Young
Colt McCoy

Young is a bit of a stretch obviously, but do you think any of them even have a shot at out-producing Rivers fantasy-wise this week? Also, if you guys have any openings in fantasy leagues next year I’d love to be a part of it, I’d like to think I could bash heads with the champs :D

Asher,
Just to clarify, I am almost guaranteed to make the playoffs, and probably need to win 1 of my last 3 to get a bye. My last 2 matchups are winnable, but one is against the 3rd place guy, so if I lose this week, win one, and lose to the 3rd guy, no bye. Anyways, still am thinking about Moss. Figure I have until Sunday during the Skins game when they talk up Moss to act.

Last question, I have gotten an offer to acquire Marshall back for Branch and Benson. I think Marshall is a monster, but as you point out, Benson’s playoff schedule is sick, and Branch’s is awesome, too. But, Branch and targets are always a question, which isn’t the case with Marshall, who also has a solid playoff schedule. Plus, do I risk not having the RB depth (only have Foster, Bush/DMC, Benson, Morris, and Hillis).

@SoSuhMe: Sorry if I didn’t respond in time, I’ve had some issues to deal with the past few days. I think thats a good trade for you- I wouldn’t want to be counting on Rivers in the stretch run. Julio will probably help you too.

@barker: Sorry if I didn’t respond in time, I’ve had some issues to deal with the past few days. I probably wouldn’t do that trade- giving up Rice without getting an RB1 in return isn’t too good. But if you ended up doing it its not the worst thing, Wallace is a top 3 guy and Mathews could always explode

@Wilsonian: Sorry if I didn’t respond in time, I’ve had some personal issues to deal with the past few days. I’d stick with Baltimore- looks like AJ Green isnt playing. And I’ll go with the WR with the better QB which is VJax, who is also more of a complete receiver than DJax.

@BrewFreeOrDie: Love the competition! I’ll let you know. Sorry if I didn’t respond in time, I’ve had some personal issues to deal with the past few days. I think Carson Palmer will be a QB1 down the stretch, he is a fantastic option

@Duncan: I was talking more about in weeks 14, 15, 16. Houston is tough, but their defenders have been dropping like flies to injury. St. Louis is the worst run D in the league I think, and Arizona is below average. I think its very, very close between Starks and Benson. I’ll go Benson because he will surely get goal line carries, but wouldn’t blame you if you went Starks. Thanks for reading!

Asher, hope everything is alright in your real life, man. Thanks for putting so much time in helping us w/ our fantasy lives.

So, I had basically decided to do the trade, but the other owner pulled the Marshall FOR Benson + Branch offer – I think he was skittish on whether Benson’s schedule over the next three weeks would even allow him to make the playoffs in order to take advantage of Benson’s playoff sched.

Don’t feel too bad about it (although I do think Marshall has a chance to have a few 8 catch, 100yd, 1-2 TD games over the final 6 weeks), bcs I do keep some depth at RB and my WRs are setting up pretty nicely, anyways. But, since you asked, my playoff roster is:

* – Moss still on the wire. I have benched Daniels, have 1 pick up left, and Ballard is on the wire, too with an 8pm Sunday night game. Although I’m still a 25pt favorite w/o a TE, my opponents’ games are done before that game, so if it’s looking like I need another 5-15pts, I can still pick up Ballard (only specific positions lock in the league at game start times, not entire rosters). I also looked back at the add/drops during the year, and of the teams that have available add/drops left to make this wk (limit of 2), none of those 6 have made any pickups during games on Sunday, so I feel like I *can* wait on Moss…unless those ESPN guys start ranting about Moss this morning. Bennett is on the wire, too, and think he’s a solid pickup, too (w/ a good playoff sched…if he puts up good #s today, I might even like him more than Moss – thoughts on this?)

So, regarding the playoffs, I would have the option of playing Benson at Flex with his matchups, PLUS if something happens to AF or Bush/DMC do some weird split carries thing (I actually am a bit worried about that), I can play Benson at RB, whereas if I had traded him, I’m stuck w/ Morris or Hillis (has a decent Wk 15 matchup, but that’s about it). Feel like that protects me a bit and still leaves open a possibility of playoff victory even w/o AF or Bush/DMC.

So, thoughts on Moss v. Bennett, the strategy of waiting on Moss until 8pm tonight so I can see how my matchup is playing out (I do have Branch, Gostowski, and DJax on SNF and MNF, so it likely won’t be completely settled, but I should have a good idea of my odds of winning), and lastly, if Rodgers gets benched for the playoff weeks, is Tim Tebow going to be my savior?

Thanks again….and, I hope you get the same some amount of enjoyment out of reading these posts/questions as I do.

Asher, one more thought for you. While I had hoped to flip DJax after his sweet perf at Arz last wk, I am clearly stuck with him now. What do you think about starting him this wk? Can Young even get him the ball downfield or will they do some short screen pass plays for him? Other options I have would be Crabtree or Benson or theoretically Bennett (would prevent me from getting Moss most lilely).

@Anal_yst: Thanks for the kind words, really appreciate it! Everything is fine. First of all, the kind of research and reasoning you put into that pick-up decision is the kind of thing that separates good owners from great ones- after reading that, you can most likely wait to pick up Moss. Think long term, and pick Moss over Bennett. I can see how you may like Bennett over Moss, but I’m not sure the pass attempts will be high enough in Chicago for consistent production. Moss WILL be getting a ton of targets. And don’t worry about not trading Benson- no such thing is too much RB depth. IF Rodgers gets benched, Tim Tebow will be a more than adequate QB1 play. His schedule is laughable, and he’s been very productive save the Lions game. Don’t panic about that at all, you’re covered. And I’d go DJax over Crabtree or Benson this week- with Maclin out, at the very least they will try to get the ball in DJax’s hands. He has more “boom” than either of those guys (although the “bust” factor is obviously there). Maybe go Benson if you REALLY are uncomfortable, but I’d say keep the faith with DJax for this week. And this may just be speculation, but I think the reason they aren’t rushing McFadden back onto the field is because they want him to be healthy for the stretch run and to resume his normal workload. I think Bush has earned a couple more carries per game, but Hugh Jackson has shown he wants one true feature back on his team- that is McFadden. Worst case scenario: McFadden is the highest of the high end RB2s.

Well, as I’ve experienced several times in FFL (and H2H Fantasy Baseball), the playoffs can be very random, so I’ll cross my fingers that nothing terrible happens. I’ve also tried to focus on playoff matchups more this year than normal (w/ your help – thanks), and feel like I’ve positioned my team as best as I can.

Fair point on Bennett, although since returning from his 6wk absence, his 11 catches on 11 targets in the past 2 weeks has to inspire confidence (and he and Cutler went to Vandy together, so I don’t know why the tgts wouldn’t increase). I guess I figure if someone in my league surprises me and picks up Moss mid-day today, I’ll fall back on Bennett on Tuesday (or tonight, if it looks like I have the game wrapped up).

Hadn’t even looked at Tebow’s sched too much – I figure that he’s gonna be better than anyone else I could get on the wire now anyways. Man, if he could just have a bit more accuracy, he’d be awesome. Fun side note, over the course of the season, I’ve had Rodgers (draft), Newton (pick up), Vick (trade), and now Tebow (pick up) on my team this year.

Hope you’re right on DJax – worried the Eagles will utilize McCoy much more than normal. Gonna roll w/ him though – hopefully he feels obligated to step up after last week’s debacle. Plus, I’m sure he wants to get paid, and the best way to do that is to put up numbers, which brings me to…

Bush, who is a free agent after this season. Guess my thinking is that Jackson wants to wait on a fully healthy DMC and doesn’t care if he runs Bush to death, since it’s fairly likely Bush will be gone after this season. I’m surprised DMC has been out this long, though. As long as I don’t get a 50/50 split of carries during the playoffs, I’ll be fine if Bush gets a few more carries.

On Benson (still going w/ DJax), I figure that Baltimore has been weaker against the run lately AND Lewis is out AND Green is out, so maybe that improves Benson’s odds of having a decent game. But, 10 carries for 30yds wouldn’t surprise me, either.

Anyways, thanks again for the back-and-forth on this – gonna go watch some games now.

So there’s an owner who is absolutely desperate for an RB. He has Starks, Tolbert, Bradshaw, M. Morris (haha pretty rough).

I am thinking of trading him Blount and Holmes for Jennings and Palmer. I figure Jennings is huge upgrade at wr for me and I get a nice backup with Palmer and have a possible nice Palmer/Moore connection.

My team would basically be Raider Nation with Palmer, Moore, DMC, Bush haha but I like Jennings even though he had terrible output last game.
I like holding onto Helu too as he is clearly the best back and they just cut Choice.

I know Blount has sick matchups with Carolina coming up twice but I think I should upgrade at WR. Sound like a good deal for me?

Thanks for your help as always. Hope to see an article from you this week with trade deadline coming up and who to target.

@Brian: Article will be up in the morning! Good point on Helu, I actually talk about that in the upcoming article. This is a pretty tough question- my answer likely hinges on whether or not you play a flex. If you do, then I might stand pat and hope Ryan can turn in some production- Blount indeed has a very good schedule. But if you do not employ a flex option, then your weakness at WR is magnified and you need to address it. I’ll say definitely do it if you don’t use a flex, and if you do indeed have a flex its about 50/50 and see if you can squeeze more out of the guy you are trading with.