After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Which of those teams are most likely to draft QB? I know if we don't have the pick and the #1 pick doesn't want Geno we'll probably be too gutless to trade up, but just out of curiosity, who among the five will pick Geno?

Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.

People were saying the Chiefs wouldn't win another game last week. Now you have them sweeping their remaining games. The inherent strength of this system is that it rationally calculates the odds of the outcome of each game without human biases.

I saw him on the sidelines, but I think that was a formation package. We had eight defensive backs in, with Hali, Poe, and one other guy rushing. (Houston?) I remember being surprised that he was out, but he looked like he was just watching.

I'm not positive that I'd rather have our eighth defensive back in the game over DJ, regardless of the formation.

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My ancestors fought cave bears so I could make this post.

I saw him on the sidelines, but I think that was a formation package. We had eight defensive backs in, with Hali, Poe, and one other guy rushing. (Houston?) I remember being surprised that he was out, but he looked like he was just watching.

I'm not positive that I'd rather have our eighth defensive back in the game over DJ, regardless of the formation.

He tweaked his hammy chasing Cam Newton and didn't come back after that.

People were saying the Chiefs wouldn't win another game last week. Now you have them sweeping their remaining games. The inherent strength of this system is that it rationally calculates the odds of the outcome of each game without human biases.