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Latin America: The World’s Future Rice Bowl?

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What is rice? <ul><li>More than just food </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Though it is the </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>primary staple for </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>billions (~ 50% of world, > 70% of poor) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Perhaps the oldest domesticated crop </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tremendously diverse </li></ul></ul><ul><li>And it grows under monsoon conditions where no other major crops can grow </li></ul>

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Global Rice Area and Production Source: You, Wood-Sichra and Wood, 2009 Cells are approximately 100 x 100 hectares at the equator Production in metric tons per cell 1,000 2,500 5,000 10,000 25,000 50,000

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Myanmar Rice is typically grown by small family farm enterprises (<2 ha)

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If we want to do something about poverty, it is clear that we must invest in rice 90% of the world’s rice is produced and consumed in Asia Over 70% of the world’s poor are in Asia Poverty Each dot represents 250,000 people living on less than $1.25 a day, 2005 Rice Consumption Annual consumption per capita <25kg 25-50 50-75 75-100 >100kg

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Global rice production increases needed to meet demand by 2035 Where Will the World’s Rice Come From?

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Where Will the World’s Rice Come From? <ul><li>Ideally from increasing productivity on existing rice lands, mostly in Asia </li></ul><ul><li>BUT, in Asia: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Land is moving out of rice </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Labor is moving out of rice </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water is moving out of rice </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Major changes in production practices and increases in efficiency Just to stay where we are </li></ul><ul><li>Significant new rice lands may be needed </li></ul>

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Sea – Level Rise >60% of Global Increase in Rice Production in the last 30 years came from Delta countries of Asia Impact of Cyclone Nargis in Burma (May 08) Before Nargis After Nargis Irrawaddy Delta

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Where Will This Rice Come From? Crop Land in Use and Total Suitable Land Source: World Agriculture Towards 2015/2030, FAO http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y3557E/y3557e08.htm#TopofPage Majority of suitable land unavailable or locked up in other uses 45%: forest 12%: Protected area 3%: human settlements The remaining land may have problems such as low soil fertility, high soil toxicity, etc.

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Trends in rice area: 1980 - 2010 Source: USDA, 2010 Rice area in hectares < 50,000 50,000 – 100,000 100,000 – 200,000 200,000 – 500,000 > 500,000 Over the last 30 years the rice area in Brazil has reduced from 6.1m to 2.9m hectares, while in the rest of LAC the rice area has increased from 1.9m to 2.8m hectares 1980 1990 2000 2010

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Can LAC Become the Next Rice Bowl? <ul><li>Biggest advantage: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Endowed with plenty of land and water . </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bottleneck </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global market is small and unstable. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>As it stands right now, LAC rice is not competitive in the export market. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Although subsidies in many rice growing countries make it even look worse </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inadequate infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What Needs to Happen? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000 per hectare and improve productivity to at least 7 tonnes/ha to be able to compete in the global market (Calvert et al.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A stable global market and minimal distortions in rice trade. </li></ul></ul>

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From Major LAC Rice – Potential Countries Requires… <ul><li>Long term policy commitment to permanent expansion of rice sector </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic vision for the development of potential rice producing lands </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic assessments of relative investments in new irrigated and savanna/ cerrado lands </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Long term commitment to research for sustainable growth in the rice sector </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A science – based second Green Revolution </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Stable policies for long term competitiveness </li></ul>

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From the Global Community… <ul><li>Even handed subsidies and incentive policies </li></ul><ul><li>Mechanism to deal with trade disruptions and protectionist practices </li></ul><ul><li>Access to real – time information on global production and trade </li></ul><ul><li>A rice futures market and exchange? </li></ul>

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Science – Based New Green Revolution? <ul><li>Tap the revolutions in genetics, molecular biology and plant physiology </li></ul><ul><li>Link soils biology and chemistry to better understand and manipulate sustainable nutrient supply </li></ul><ul><li>Exploit the explosion of computation capacity and remote sensing to model systems and link process at scales from the cellular through ecosystems and regions </li></ul><ul><li>Proactively link the political and social dimensions of agriculture to technology development </li></ul>

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“ The majority view, contending that more productive varieties were needed, led to massive investment during the past 25 years in biotechnology and genetics and under-investment in crop management.” Rice Today, April-June 2007

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What happened after the Green Revolution of the 1970s? E. Pulver After a doubling of yields, no major gains since the early 1980s HOWEVER, that does not mean that advances were not made: Grain quality, growth duration, disease and insect resistance… My bet where yields would be With no new varieties

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Latin American Fund for Irrigated Rice (FLAR) South – South platform that seeks synergy in rice R & E Established in 1995

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Instituto Rio Grandense do Arroz - 21,8% Average cost of production

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Technically Possible for Latin America to be Competitive <ul><li>Technology is already present to raise yields and reduce costs </li></ul><ul><li>New science is available that will permit further increases in yield potential and actual yield in the field </li></ul>

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Is There the Political Will? A Look at Trends Over the Last Several Decades Suggests Not

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Source: Public Agricultural Research in Latin America and the Caribbean by G. Stads and N. M. Beintema Trend in Agricultural R&D Expenditures in Developing Countries, 1981-2006 LAC Massive investments In Asia

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Emergence of Chinese Dependence on Foreign Soybeans Was a Driver for Change Data Source: USDA

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LAC Becoming the Next Rice Bowl! <ul><li>Biggest advantage: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Endowed with plenty of land and water . </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bottleneck </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global market is too small and unstable. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>As it stands right now, LAC rice is not competitive in the export market. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Although subsidies in many rice growing countries make it even look worse </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inadequate infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What Needs to Happen? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000 per hectare and improve productivity to at least 7 tons/ha to be able to compete in the global market (Calvert et al.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A stable global market and minimal distortions in rice trade. </li></ul></ul>

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<ul><li>We need productivity growth but that requires research, development, dissemination </li></ul><ul><li>Global food security depends on sustaining irrigated rice systems and probably opening new land </li></ul><ul><li>Lessons from the Green Revolution: it DOES work </li></ul><ul><li>The requirements for success are in place </li></ul><ul><li>Commitments to </li></ul><ul><li>the next generation </li></ul><ul><li>of scientists </li></ul><ul><li>Latin America can & </li></ul><ul><li>must play a key role </li></ul>In Summary…

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Thank you “ Since the way to feed the world is not to bring more land under cultivation, but to increase yields, science is crucial. ” The Economist “ The Silent Tsunami ” 19 April 2008