April 20, 2017

What Does China Want With North Korea?

Chinese leaders undoubtedly have a strategy with respect to North Korea and the West, although it is also likely they have hard-liners and moderates creating dynamic tension.

This piece describes the North Korean strategy, with the familiar point that the North Koreans have an ongoing crisis of legitimacy and believe they need their nukes to stave off a US overthrow (Libya and Qadaffi are mentioned here, although She Who Must Not Be Named is omitted as the architect of that venture.)

But a key point is made in the discussion of what it might take to soothe the fears of the North Korean rulers:

The High Costs of a Deal

Any agreement that North Korea would be likely to consider minimally acceptable would come at huge cost to the United States and its allies. North Korea would be likely to require:

■ A tacit acknowledgment of the country’s right to retain its existing programs.■ A declaration that the United States considered the North Korean government legitimate and would not seek to topple it.■ The lifting of sanctions.■ The withdrawal or reduction of the American military commitment to South Korea.

“They want to see the end of that alliance,” said Joshua H. Pollack, the editor of the Nonproliferation Review, suggesting that North Korea has drawn inspiration from the way that the United States broke with Taiwan in order to normalize relations with China in the 1970s.

Mr. Pollack emphasized that North Korea probably saw this as a long-term goal to be accomplished over many years, rather than something to demand up front and all at once.

Still, he said, North Korea may see this as the only way to reduce the existential threat that its weapons program is meant to curb.

Any partial or full American withdrawal would risk sending the American relationship with South Korea and Japan into crisis, empowering North Korea and weakening American influence in Asia.

Hmm, breaking the South Korea/Japan/USA alliance and booting the US out of that part of the world... who else might benefit from that? China, maybe a bit?

Which suggests that as much as we exhort China to bring Kim Jong Un to heel, there are surely Chinese hard-liners arguing that in the longer run, North Korean and China have a broad overlap of interests. Troubling!

BEIJING — When China’s best-known historian of the Korean War, Shen Zhihua, recently laid out his views on North Korea, astonishment rippled through the audience. China, he said with a bluntness that is rare here, had fundamentally botched its policy on the divided Korean Peninsula.

China’s bond with North Korea’s Communist leaders formed even before Mao Zedong’s decision in 1950 to send People’s Liberation Army soldiers to fight alongside them in the Korean War. Mao famously said the two sides were “as close as lips and teeth.”

But China should abandon the stale myths of fraternity that have propped up its support for North Korea and turn to South Korea, Mr. Shen said at a university lecture last month in Dalian, a northeastern Chinese port city.

“Judging by the current situation, North Korea is China’s latent enemy and South Korea could be China’s friend,” Mr. Shen said, according to a transcript he published online. “We must see clearly that China and North Korea are no longer brothers in arms, and in the short term there’s no possibility of an improvement in Chinese-North Korean relations.”

Whoa! It's hard to imagine that China would be willing to accept a re-unified Korea under South Korean leadership as part of a Western alliance. On the other hand...

China’s “traditionalist view that views the U.S. as a much greater threat than North Korea is deeply entrenched,” Bonnie S. Glaser, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said in an email. “But the proponents of change are vocal, too. They argue that North Korea is a growing liability.”

What China really wants is stability and calm:

Mr. Shen has gone much further than other scholars in calling for a reset.

“The fundamental interests of China and North Korea are at odds,” he said in his lecture. “China’s fundamental interest lies in achieving a stability on its borders and developing outward. But since North Korea acquired nuclear weapons, that periphery has never been stable, so inevitably Chinese and North Korean interests are at odds.”

With Obama in office the Chinese were never really worried that the US would do something daft, so placating North Korea and annoying the US was the lower-risk path. George Bush, of course, was mired in Afghanistan and Iraq. Bill Clinton had his own distractions, some in Iraq and some closer to the Oval Office.

But Trump? There is a guy who can play the 'crazy' card with as much gusto as Kim Jong Un (I always thought that was a modest talking point in favor of the McCain Presidency, for what that was worth).

If - yuge IF - forced to acknowledge that their current path leads to a potentially disastrous confrontation China might yet try to walk a different road. My ongoing hope is that they try to preserve North Korea as an independent buffer on their border under sane new puppet leadership provided by the son of the recently-poisoned legitimate heir. Such a great deal can be worked out!

I talked to a to a homeless man this morning and asked him how he ended up this way.

He said, "Up until last week, I still had it all. I had plenty to eat, my clothes were washed and pressed, I had a roof over my head, I had HDTV and Internet, and I went to the gym, the pool, and the library. I was working on my MBA on-line. I had no bills and no debt. I even had full medical coverage."

I felt sorry for him, so I asked, "What happened? Drugs? Alcohol? Divorce?"

When I couldn't sleep last night I found an interesting series on Acorn TV -- Line of Duty. I watched episodes 1 and 2. It's British, police anti-corruption unit investigating a decorated officer. A couple of weeks ago, I watched another Acorn cop drama, The Level. Liked it, too.

We have watched Vera, DCI Banks, Inspector Lewis, Jackson Brodie series on Kate Atkinson's books, the Thorne: Sleepyhead and ScaredyCat series until we've almost worn them out (streaming them, so they can't actually be worn out, though I might be able to recite lines in some of the shows :) -- anyway, just thought I'd recommend the two new shows, plus the others, in case anyone is trapped inside by the cold, wind, and rain like I am.

When I went on the White House web site to give my ObamaCare feedback a while ago I signed up for a daily email. For anyone with "info underload", here is a typical list of topics.
It's set up like instapundit, a title and a "more" link. The Weekly Address is like an embedded You Tube.

THIS WEEK'S TOP STORIES
Presidential Executive Order on Buy American and Hire American.
Read More
President Trump signs S. 544, The Veterans Choice Program Extension and Improvement Act.
Read More
Vice President Pence thanks sailors aboard U.S.S. Ronald Reagan.
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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
POTUS to Call Space to Congratulate Record Breaking Astronaut Peggy Whitson.
Read More
President Trump: Buy American, Hire American.
Read More
President Trump Welcomes the New England Patriots to the White House.
Read More

NEWS FROM VICE PRESIDENT PENCE'S ASIA-PACIFIC TOUR
Vice President Pence arrives in Indonesia.
Read More

UPCOMING EVENTS
THIS WEEKEND: April 22nd & 23rd: The White House grounds open for 2017 Spring Garden Tours
Read More
April 24th: President Trump calls space to congratulate record breaking astronaut Peggy Whitson
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Yes.
And never critically examined by the media. Another fave over the years was "Bush cancelled the Kyoto Treaty" on climate. Senate voted against (98-0?) during Clinton's Admin, then Bush ignored it.
Yet the AP repeated endlessly that Bush pulled us out of the treaty.
I'm sure there are many more.

rich:
You were talking to yourself last night but making some very good points.
Marlene:
Prayers for your son in law's friend.
JIB:
Glad you are on the mend.
Try to ditch the Percocet as soon as you are able.
MM: Wonderful that the rally is the same day as that windbag dinner.
The article on Pat Buchanan is a good one.
I am confident in President Trump and know everything will work out fine in the end.
Over 41 million dollars raised by the RNC.
Fox has moved on from OReilly but I have to say that after putting Fox on the map for the past 20 years their unceremonious cashiering of him just reeks of ingratitude in my opinion.
Proves the old adage:
Anybody is replaceable.
The Five moves to 9:00pm.
I will watch Fox Business or just read a book.
There are only so many strung out liberals I can listen to on Carlson'sprogram.
I would love to have Greta's opinion of why she left.