2013 Rookie Receiver Rankings (Post-Draft Version)

In the week leading up to the 2013 NFL Draft, I published my contrarian WR rankings. Based on the Dominator Rating and Height-adjusted Speed Score concepts, those rankings were an attempt to evaluate the reality value of the prospects. With the draft concluded and dynasty rookie drafts in full swing, these are my fantasy rankings that incorporate NFL Draft results. While I believe draft position has a big impact on fantasy viability, opportunity alone isn’t enough at the wide receiver position. As a result, I still strongly emphasize reality skill and athleticism in guesstimating future fantasy value.

RotoViz exhaustively studied many of these prospects leading up to the draft. I’ve embedded a link to that information in many of the player names.

As I detailed in my breakdown of the PFF Dynasty rookie draft, Hopkins went to the perfect team to have short term value as the No. 2 behind Andre Johnson and to have long term value as he eventually swaps roles with the aging monster. Some are concerned about the Texans’ recent penchant for the running game, but I’m a believer in Matt Schaub and don’t think teams can remain run-based for any length of time in the contemporary NFL.

I’ve been very down on Austin, but he goes to the perfect team to take advantage of his skills. I also recently finished an article for the upcoming PFF Draft Guide that is more optimistic about possession receivers than the one I penned a year ago. Part of succeeding at fantasy sports – or anything for that matter – is a willingness to incorporate new information and upgrade your projections accordingly. Call it waffling if you must, but I’m coming around on Tavon. One small caveat to keep in mind, Chris Givens, Daryl Richardson, and Isaiah Pead are all small, in-space players, so there may be significant competition for these types of touches.

Like Austin, Patterson gets a boost from his landing spot, although probably only a short term boost. Over the first three years or so of his career, Patterson should benefit from playing in a horizontal offense with a weak-armed quarterback. If he somewhat surprisingly develops into an all-around star – as opposed to a larger version of Percy Harvin – then remaining in Minnesota will hold him back.

It’s interesting that the Rams double-dipped with West Virginia receivers. Sam Bradford excelled in an offense with some similarities in college and could possibly use Bailey even more than Austin. While everyone is focusing on the potential for Austin to become a Randall Cobb-like dynamo, my research suggests Bailey might be better equipped to become a hyper-Welker. If Bailey’s college resume tells us anything, it’s that he profiles as an intermediate receiver, who also scores touchdowns. That’s a pretty rare and potentially hugely lucrative combination. He could push Brian Quick and Chris Givens into niche receiver roles very quickly.

9. Aaron Mellette – DR .54, HaSS 106

Mellete is another weird draft faller in that he’s essentially a version of Aaron Dobson who wasn’t horrible last year. Mellette played at Elon, but the successes of players like Marques Colton, Miles Austin, Pierre Garcon, and Cecil Shorts illustrate the ability of small school stars to succeed in the NFL if they possess the requisite athleticism and actually know how to play the position. Mellette’s resume attests to those abilities. Finding himself in Baltimore, he could quickly make an impact with guys like Jacoby Jones and Tommy Streeter as the only thing standing in his way.

Williams goes to Dallas where he shouldn’t have much redraft value for a couple of seasons, but over the long term his fit may be ideal. When the Cowboys move on from Miles Austin, Williams could settle into the No. 2 role and see very favorable coverage opposite Dez Bryant. Tony Romo is one of the best and most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL, and one who consistently generates fantasy value for his receivers. Williams may not project as a true star, but both his Dominator Rating and Height-adjusted Speed Score suggest a very capable NFL starter.

You don’t want to spend a high rookie pick on anybody with a DR below .35, and Hunter’s athleticism doesn’t wow the way scouting reports suggest. He’s basically a version of Corey Fuller who was less productive despite possessing more experience. Getting picked by Tennessee is almost the kiss of death. You don’t really want to go to a place where they already have two young receivers who are way better than you. Kenny Britt may not be long for the Titans’ roster but banking on such a development incurs another level of unnecessary risk.

13. Josh Boyce – DR .28, HaSS 106

Boyce could easily be the guy who wins here. Adding the former Horned Frog to your roster instead of Dobson is probably the arbitrage play.

Swope becomes something of a sleeper in a Cardinals offense that should push the ball vertical, but it’s tough to tell where he fits on the depth chart. Andre Roberts is a better athlete and reality player than most realize.

I think you have done excellent work with your agility scores and other fantasy articles, but this updated WR valuation is a little concerning in that you massively changed your rankings from the original one based purely on the methodology. Its a shame to see this ranking float closer to the consensus fantasy predictor based on draft pick and location.

Hey Cory, thanks for the reply. I’m glad you’ve been enjoying some of the contrarian stuff.

Unfortunately, the reality GMs ignored what history tells us about how good some of these guys are going to be so that does make a pretty big impact on how we should value them for fantasy.

The two guys I moved way up were Tavon and Cordarrelle, and it wasn’t just because they were drafted early. They also went to teams I think are a good fit for their fantasy prospects. I moved Bailey down because Brian Quick and Chris Givens will provide a lot of competition for targets, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually emerges as the No. 1.

I also moved a HaSS/DR favorite way up in Corey Fuller after he landed in a good situation with the Lions and kept Charles Johnson and Aaron Mellette much higher than conventional wisdom suggests.

So I think my methodology is still weighted very heavily, perhaps more heavily than it should be even, but I’m glad you like it enough to argue in favor of the reality rankings. It would be absolutely awesome if you turn out to be right.

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