The global rating agency said Jio’s success hinges on increased 4G devices penetration and a dramatic change in data consumption patterns in India, especially since data usage in the country remains low.

In fact, Moody’s does not expect Jio to achieve its initial target of 100 million customers before March 2018 as it feels ringing in a change in consumer behaviour at this scale in such a short period will be a challenge.

“While we expect Jio will achieve its 100 million subscriber target by March 2018, it remains uncertain to what extent data consumption will increase, especially once consumers are asked to pay for it,” said the rating agency in its note Tuesday.

Mukesh Ambani-owned Jio, in its bid to grab a 100 million customers in the shortest span, has launched free voice and data services from September 5 as part of a welcome offer that will continue till December 31.

“Even though Jio is offering voice services for free and data at a fraction of the price offered by competitors, these services are only available to subscribers with 4G devices or those using a 4G interface device with their existing smartphones,” said Moody’s.

The rating agency also expects Jio’s parent, RIL to generate lower ebitda from the telecom business. “As (Jio’s) commercial launch will not take place before the end of the promotional period, and thus not before January 2017, and in view of the announced tariff plans, we expect RIL to generate lower Ebitda from its telecom segment.”

The lower Ebitda expectation, it said, is regardless of the fact that Jio “may achieve a higher number of subscribers than our previous estimates”.

The rating agency also does not expect RIL’s telecom business to generate any earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and restructuring (Ebitar) in FY17, and expects this financial metric to fall below previous estimates in FY18.Moody’s, however, said the Ebitar from RIL’s telecom business would “either be in line or exceed its previous estimates by FY19,” as it expects Jio to build a substantial subscriber base, although at a lower average revenue per user (ARPU).

The global rating agency expects capex for RIL’s telecom business to be higher than earlier estimates “as fiscal 2017 capex also includes the expenses incurred prior to commercial launch of service”.

“A portion of the increase is also because of the timing of cash outflows, in that, some of the capex that we had expected to be paid out in fiscal 2016 will now be paid in fiscal 2017,” said Moody’s in a note.