Pac-12 basketball: Projecting the 2011-2012 league race

Derrick Williams’ decision Wednesday to enter the NBA Draft changed the dynamic of the 2011-12 league race.

He joins Washington’s Isaiah Thomas, USC’s Nikola Vucevic and UCLA’s Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt to form the league’s biggest talent drain since 2008. (There hasn’t been much talent to drain the past couple years.)

Had Williams stayed in school, Arizona would be the heavy favorite and the league’s first elite team in several years.

Without him, the Wildcats are one of a handful of teams — along with Washington, UCLA and Cal — on the muddled, and mediocre, top tier.

Here’s how it looks at this early point, assuming Washington State’s Klay Thompson and Colorado’s Alec Burks declare in the next few days.

(Note 1: I will revise the projections after the May 8 deadline.)

(Note 2: I give recruiting classes secondary consideration in assessing a team’s prospects because you don’t know how consistently, if at all, the freshman will contribute. And in some cases there can be eligibility issues.)

1. UCLA: The Bruins have holes on the perimeter caused by the departures of Lee and Honeycutt, but they should be solid at the point with Lazeric Jones and absolutely loaded up front. Centers Josh Smith and Anthony Stover, power forward Reeves Nelson and David and Travis Wear, who are eligible after transferring from North Carolina, form the league’s best frontline. The key will be how quickly the young wings like Tyler Lamb and Norman Powell develop.

2. Cal. Thought long and hard about slotting the Bears in the 1-hole — not because they are oozing talent but because they return four starters, possess the best wing tandem in the league (Jorge Gutierrez and Allen Crabbe) and have the league’s best coach on a year-in, year-out basis. The Bears were four games back in 2010-11 and should be much improved relative to the teams that finished ahead of them.

3. Washington. Even without Thomas, the Huskies should have an elite perimeter unit with Abdul Gaddy (assuming no glitches in his recovery from a knee injury), Terrence Ross, C.J. Wilcox and Scott Suggs. UW may even win the conference if the frontline (Darnell Gant, Aziz N’Diaye and others) become a force.

4. Arizona. Losing Williams is a double-whammy. Not only did he provide 19.1 pts and 8.1 rebs per game, but he made everyone else better. As noted above, Arizona is one of four teams with a chance to win the title — I just didn’t see enough from Lamont Jones, Jesse Perry et all to project the Cats any higher. The recruiting class is well regarded, but again, freshmen are usually an unknown. And until I see Josiah Turner in uniform — he’s currently enrolled at the Quality Education Academy in North Carolina — I’ll remain skeptical about his eligiblity.

5. Stanford: The Cardinal returns its entire roster assuming Jeremy Green rejoins the team following his suspension from school (academics) for the spring quarter. Green, Anthony Brown and Dwight Powell should combine for 45-50 ppg and get the Cardinal into the postseason, although the NIT seems a bit more likely than the NCAAs.

6. Oregon: The Ducks were one of the league’s surprise teams in 2010-11 (in that they were almost mediocre instead of truly awful). Losing top scorer/rebounder Joevan Catron is a blow, but he’s hardly irreplaceable — unlike, Derrick Williams, for instance. The bulk of the roster returns for its second season under Dana Altman and, frankly, nobody else is worthy.

7. Oregon State: Jared Cunningham, Ahmad Starks and Devon Collier combined for 58 of the Beavers’ 69 points in their Pac-10 tourney victory overt Stanford — and all three are due back. (Cunningham should be one of the league’s best players.) But OSU’s propensity for clunkers makes a top-half finish seem unlikely.

8. Washington State: A difficult team to project due to roster attrition, pot busts, etc … but count me among those not-yet-sold on coach Ken Bone. Without Thompson, they’ll have trouble scoring (and Thompson may not be the only starter who doesn’t return).

9. USC: One of the league’s best frontlines (Vucevic and Alex Stepheson) is no more. The Trojans are in decent shape in the backcourt with Jio Fontan and Maurice Jones, but there are huge questions everywhere else. And coach Kevin O’Neill erratic behavior doesn’t exactly inspire confidence when assessing his team’s prospects.

10. Colorado: In addition to (presumably) losing Burks, the Pac-12 newcomers must make due without No. 2 scorer Cory Higgins and several other quality players. But Tad Boyle becomes one of the best four or five coaches in the conference the day the Buffs officially join.

(Note: If Burks returns to school, move the Buffs to No. 5, ahead of Stanford. He ‘s that good.)

11. Arizona State: Devils were the biggest surprise of the ’10 season and the biggest disappointment of ’11. Now they must replace a bevy of seniors and have only one underclassman who has proven he can score consistently (Trent Lockett).

12. Utah: The Utes were going to struggle in their new conference before top scorer Will Clyburn opted to transfer to Iowa State. Now? Best of luck to first-year coach Larry Krystkowiak.

Jon Wilner

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Jon Wilner, I would greatly appreciate it if you slotted Stanford at 8 or 9, that way we win it all, we look fantastic and if we under-perform, well it still looks okay. And yes Jeremy will be ready to play. He got a copy of the Easy A List and all is good.

Coach Johnny Dawkins

The Anne and Tony Joseph Director of Men’s Basketball
Stanford University

NorCal Tree

Go cry about the Stanford axe Milo. You won’t be seeing it for a long time! Johnny D has Chasson Randle coming in at the point. It’s been some time since we have had a top flight PG. I like our chances to beat expectations next year. As for Benedict Monty, slow and steady until the big dance….same as it ever was!

How’s Barbour doing in the dance with Miami??

John

I love that Jon is picking Colorado, which would have been a top 3 team in the Pac-12 this year, tenth. He has Cal listed at #2, the same Cal team that was blown out in Boulder this year.

Yes, Colorado loses Corey Higgins and may lose Alec Burks. But Colorado gains transfer Carlon Brown, who was 2nd team all-MWC at Utah before sitting out last year. And Colorado returns its starting center, Shane Harris-Tunks, who sat out last year with an ACL.

Combine those 2 with a strong nucleus (2 returning starters) and a recruiting class with 3 of the top 15 California high schoolers joining, and sprinkle in one of the best coaches in the Pac-12, and I think Colorado will really surprise Pac-12 fans.

John

And if Alec Burks returns, I think Colorado could win the Pac-12.

Eric

Jon – I have had enough of your accusations when it comes to Josiah Turner. Your speculation is beyond ridiculous in this regard when you have absolutely no information or factual information to back it up. Turner’s mother has already stated that Josiah has qualified for UofA and will be in Tucson for the second summer session. Here’s the link in case you need it:

I’m not a CU fan, but I think you’re selling Colorado short. You mentioned Boyle’s coaching, but what about the way Roberson came on at the end of this past season. I think the Buffs will finish in the top half of the league without Burks.

JTL

Hmm, it seems like a few CU folks have a bit of an inflated impression of their own team. A senior heavy team that finishes .500 in the Big 12 and can only make the NIT is going to be a force in the Pac-12 next year? Riiight. And without Burks, it is going to be a serious rebuilding project.

Pac12Guru

Jon Wilner is the only person I’ve ever known to call Lazeric Jones solid.

Scott

Cal doesn’t have the depth. They lose MSF and have recruited two 2 stars for next year.

wilners brother

where is the respect for arizona? do you remember the derrick williams-less team that went toe to toe with california? josiah turner is a prized recruit but watch chol develop into the pac-12 defensive machine…the second coming of derrick williams has arrived in tucson.

ondal

You forgot to mention that Oregon’s Malcolm Armstead has been granted his release and will transfer. Also, DeAngelo Casto might go pro in Europe but hasn’t decided yet. Losing Casto would be a big blow to WSU.

I think Cal might be slotted one spot too high and Arizona two spots too low.

1. UCLA
2. Arizona
3. Cal
4. Washington

Also, someone on the UCLA blog said Josh Smith is not 100% set on returning. In my opinion, I would say he is 85%. But if he goes it would be HUGE. Like him.

JackBeav

I think Jon got everything correct except for 2 through 11… and thinking Laz Jones is good enough to keep Norman Powell on the bench… and failing to note that OSU’s clunkers all graduate this spring (note their complete absence in that win against Stanford).

And I could not care less about Turner or Chol. Yes, they’re good. But Nick Johnson is the baller of the bunch in UA’s 2011 class.

The Wisdom Cow

I agree with ondal. Cal’s depth will be a problem again. We simply have too few quality big men. The zone worked against several teams for stretches, but invariably lead to several three pointer by the opposition.

John, I thought CU was very similar to UW. They played out of control very often but made up for it with athleticism. As I did not see much more than a couple games of theirs, I don’t know if that was by design (Monty let our Randle shoot whenever he wanted two years ago, simply because he could make anything) or a lack of discipline. Their road schedule is going to be a grind over the course of the season. It will harden them for the Tourney, but it will make a regular season championships very difficult.

John

JTL-
CU did OK last year against Cal and Oregon State.

I’m not saying CU will necessarily win the Pac-12. I’m’ just saying that a team that many thought had the best set of wins in the Big 12 last year, a conference that was much stronger than the Pac-12, shouldn’t be an afterthought in the race.

And while CU is losing Higgins and possibly Burks, they’re also gaining Carlon Brown (2nd team All-MWC 2 years ago that sat out last year due to transfer restrictions) and Shane Harris-Tunks, the starting center that blew his ACL out a month before the season started.

But hey — pick CU 10th. All that matters is how the teams end up after the season.
Playing at altitude with a coach that tries to take advantage of it will give CU a strong advantage.

Marteen

The Wear twins are f’ing awful.

arningad

Last year is last year. But CU beat Cal and Oregon St (two teams that you prognosticate to be ahead of CU) and K-State, Missouri and Texas. Slotting CU at 10 is cool. There is nowhere to go but UP. For the West Coast and desert teams UP means to 5300 feet above sea level. Yeah, that far UP. These teams from the oxygen rich environments near sea level should be sure to remember to bring their oxygen bottles with them.

Coach Tedford

I think Johnny Dawkins is doing a great job as Stanford hoops coach. He was 1 win away from a winning record last year, achieved a berth in the Pac10 tournament, & beat Cal once. Another successful campaign in ’10-’11 like the last several. Stanford fans expect too much – this ship like Cal football is trending in the right direction. I think Johnny needs to bring in some new assistants as I have done to take it to an even higher level.

JTL

If Burks leaves, CU loses its top 4 scorers from this past season. Brown is a nice player, but is a 1 year stopgap transfer and hardly makes up for the losses. The center is a project coming off of an ACL injury. Teams that rely on a special home court advantage also tend to be poor road teams (which CU is). Without Burks, 10th is a very fair prediction for CU next season.

AZCATS

Jon, you are such a home boy. Take the rose colored glasses off and drop CAL 2 spots, or better yet trade the spot with AZ.

Comedy must be your first job, because sports con’t possibly.

Coach Todd Bozeman

I’m glad to see the Golden Bears returning to their former glory of losing in the first two rounds of the NCAAs, and I’m surprised that Coach Montgomery isn’t robbing the bank to pay his players like I had to do.

Todd “Bozo” Bozeman
The Former Bonnie & Clyde Director of Men’s Basketball
The University of California at Berkeley

StanTheMan

#5 seems about right for Stanford, but it will depend greatly on whether these guys figure out how to play together better than they did this past season. If they do, they’ll make the NCAAs easily. If not, then NIT seems more likely.

My money’s on them getting it done, and with Randle taking over the point and allowing Mann to play SG where’s he’s a more natural fit and move Green to the 3 where he can get a little more physical (his body has matured to where he can do that). If Powell and Brown get on the Landry Fields bulk-up program then Stanford starts to have the kind of inside strength that can domintate teams in the Pac-12.

I think there’s more upside to the #5 pick than downside.

Smokey

Cal will play UW, WSU, AZ, and ASU once each season for the next two years.

UCLA will play UT, CO, OR, and OSU once each season for the next two years.

Still want to pick UCLA to win it?

Harold

I’ve never heard a more deadly insult to Jarrett Mann’s point-guard skills than StanTheMan’s accusation that he’s a more natural shooting guard. Mann shot 30 percent from the field last season, including a sparkingly one for 17 from the arc. He hit less than half his free throws. He is the worst-shooting Stanford guard of at least the last 20 years.

Not to mention that if he’s playing on the wing, it means either Dwight Powell or Anthony Brown has to sit. I can’t imagine a more disastrous scenario.

TommyCoug

Just “mental” lottery picking until we see who goes to the NBA, who transfers and which players flunk out are not reinstated from suspensions or don’t want to continue their college carrers.

Too many “ifs” JW for any kind of basketball projection in the Pac-12. Your headline should read: My Super Rediculously Early Pac-12 2011-2012 Basketball Race Predictions.

You doggone Bay Area sports fans have forced me to put my foot down. Stanford Mens basketball WILL WIN THE PAC-12 CONFERENCE TITLE IN ’12! Stanford basketball will return to top form like bygone days of Coach Monty and Coach Johnson. I guarantee it!

Coach Johnny Dawkins

The Anne and Tony Joseph Director of Men’s Basketball
Stanford University

CWOO

Cal is somewhere in the mix, but too high at 2.

BUT tcoog… “underestimated in everything” what have you done lately. Nothing, is the correct answer. If Casto and Klay leave, you have a great point guard with absolutely no hope. You’ll be battling ASU, Oregon and Utah for the 10th spot. Quit crying.

Mal

Wow. No mention of Tony Wroten JR. for Washington. He make Josiah Turner look like a pablum-sucking infant. Go look a tape of the recent USA vs the World game in Portland, or the earlier Clash of the Classes when Wroten scored 42 pts, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists and a sweet block on Kyle Wiltjer. Wilner, be sure to watch tomorrow’s Nike’s Jordan Brand Classic. Hopefully, you’ll see Wroten shutting down young Mr. Rivers…afterall, the coach of Team USA (17 under) said he was the best defender on the team; and it’s pretty obvious Wroten is the best passer in the country…a statement made by coach Romar…and he’s not in the least prone to hyperbole.

You make of habit of hyping Cal….which has already destroyed the little credibility you might have had at one time.

The Anne and Tony Joseph Director of Men’s Basketball
Stanford University

bilbo

The big miss was ASU, but everyone got that wrong. ASU will revert next year and will probably finish better than the preseason prediction

AKBear

The Pac-10, er…Pac-12, has several teams that have a shot at making a run at the title, but let’s ID the ones where a Pac-12 championship seems out of the question for next year.

Arizona State – Losing 3 of the top 4 scorers from a team that finished last in the Pac-10 is not a good foundation for success; also what’s the status on Coach Sendek and a possible move?

Utah – Good luck and welcome to the Utes, but losing the leading scorer and top rebounder only causes other Pac-12ers to salivate.

USC – Having lost 4 key players including their solid frontline 1-2 punch, look for the Trojans to fall into the second division even with the incoming class.

Oregon – Nice run to CBI title, but this team is probably a year away from contending.

Stanford – The Cards have a wealth of talent and have a possible missing ingredient arriving to help at the key PG position, however, there’s just something about their team chemistry that seems to always be off a beat.

Washington State – With the loss of their top rebounder Casto, the return of Thompson is even that much more important, but even with his return a championship seems to be up in smoke.

So this leaves Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon State, UCLA and Washington to battle for the crown. The surprise team in this group is probably OSU, but the departure of the outgoing class is probably addition by subtraction.

Gobears49

Yes, Cal will be weak in the frontcourt. But they will have an excellent backcourt. I predict that both Allen Crabbe and Jorge Gutierrez will make the NBA and will get a lot of playing time there. Gutierrez is not a projected NBA player, but I think he will make a perfect point guard for some team. He has great passing ability, is a superb defensive player, and is an unbelievable competitor.

I agree with Jon that Monty is the class of Pac 12 coaches.

JackBeav

@AKBear,
“The surprise team in this group is probably OSU, but the departure of the outgoing class is probably addition by subtraction.”

You don’t know the half of it (or 25% for that matter) if you’re only referring to on-court performance… which would be enough to satisfy your statement.

I would include Stanford in the mix. I really like their young core and where Dawkins is taking that team. He’s behind the curve in developing any bigs for the future, but last year’s recruiting class put in a lot of time, and I can see big things from all of them.

OS_Beaver

If anyone wants to check out the #9 nationally ranked Oregon State Beavers take on Stanford in baseball at Sunken Diamond at 1pm on Saturday and Sunday here is the offiicial stream:

DeAngelo Casto is gone…he dropped out of school and is training in Las Vegas for the draft or pros somewhere. Probably not going to make a big splash…my prediction. This does hurt our future situation and…will aslo adversely affect our basketball APR (for just leaving without graduating) going forward…even though he was never inelligible…class work was a stuggle.

Klay Thompson will declare tomorrow (Monday) or very early next week for the NBA. I doubt he will hire an agent at this time…his father is as good mentor as he needs right now. I suspect his chances of returning to Wazzu next year are less than 50%.

There…CWOO…that, up to date, information…should please you??!!

By the way…whom do you favor, in the PAC-12, with your support, money and presence? Or are you just a another California “negative nanny”??!!

GO COUGS!!

xxxcvs

I already posted on your Marin IJ report. Arizona will run away with PAC-12 next year and will be BETTER the following year. 8 NBA players in Jones, Hill, Parrom, Mayes and the 4 new freshmen. The 2 new bigs, Jones and Choil have better skill sets that Williams and Horne. By tournament, chant will be “Derrick who?” Fogg, Lavendar, Natyashko and Perry would start on any other team. Stanford is solid 2nd. UCLA lost too much with Lee and Honeycut, but will be better by NCAAs. Cal and UW will make field of 68 and will win at least once.

Mal

Well, Wilner, did you bother to watch the Jordan Brand Classic? There was only one incoming PAC12 player invited, Tony Wroten Jr and he had 10 spectacular assists.

PS: Terrence Ross is already projected as a 2012 lottery pick. And, maybe, Washington will “undicipline” itself to the PAC12 lead in assists and assist/turnover ratio, again, for you jealous fools who keep trying to put Romar down even as he kicks your arse. You’re like Tea Baggars making crap up to avoid admitting you don’t like Obama ’cause he’s black. Romar has a winning record against UCLA and Arizona….and Sean Miller and Ben Howland..but, they can coach, but the former 5-year NBA point guard (Romar) doesn’t know his x’s and o’s. Morons!

SwagSwag

Mal fails, Jabari Brown, who’s going to Oregon, got invited.

JJ

Cal has a strong chance at the Pac-12 title because they lose only one player off the entire roster and add Justin Cobbs at PG who according to Montgomery will be one of the team’s best players (he spent the last year practicing with the team), relied heavily on freshmen the past season who will be back and players tend to make their largest jumps from frosh to soph years, and finished tied for 4th last season behind and tied with teams that lose far more to graduation and the NBA.

Uh Huh!

I’m a Cal fan, but an eternally cautious one.
Sure, Monty has done a fantastic job the past two seasons. Absolutely!!!

But talent, size and depth count as well, and Cal doesn’t appear to have enough of it to finish ahead of the likes of UCLA, UA, UW. Heck, I’ll even buy the arguments for Colorado here.

UW and UA will have too many athletes. UCLA too much beef. It will be a lot of fun watching Howland manage his rotation of bigs all season long. How is he going to get them enough minutes? Can Reeves develop a consistent J and move to the 3? The strategy against UCLA will be to Run, Run, Run their size out of the gym. Who can do that and force them into turnovers? Anyone who settles into the halfcourt will get pounded on the glass. UCLA will need to shoot the 3 to keep teams from sagging into the paint. Should be a fun season to watch from that standpoint.

Back to Cal, defenses will key on Crabbe. He’ll have to develop his game to keep pace with expectations. Gutierrez has one last season to show us a trustworthy jump shot. Can Cobbs or Rossi be a big time shooter, scorer? I won’t count on them for much, so as to be surprised on the upside. Solomon has a lot of upside, and Cal will need every bit of it and much much more on the inside to cope with Pac10 contenders. That’s why I’m not expecting Cal to finish any better than 4th, and 4th would still be a good accomplishment for this roster, AGAIN!

Monty himself said in post-season interviews that he didn’t think this team could have performed much better than what they did last year. They exceeded his expectations. Who are we to doubt him?

After next year, Kamp and Gut are gone. Please, Monty, get some high quality recruits. PLEASE!

Thanks, Wilner!

StanTheMan

@Harold – Mann’s troubles this season stem in large part from his needing to focus on running the offense. He came out of HS as a point guard but was thrust into the PG role because of a dearth of talent there as well as his lockdown defense. My statement was more based on history than talent – if you’ve read my posts in the past on Stanford basketball you would know I don’t care for him.

I’m hoping he’s at best the first guard off the bench – spelling Green or Randle as needed, and allowing both Brown and Powell to start and play 3 & 4.

TommyCoug

Klay Thompson “declared” he has annouced for the NBA draft…not hire an agent at this time. I predict he is gone also. With Klay Thompson and DeAngelo Casto both departed it will be “very difficult” (unless something unexpected happens on recruiting) for my Wazzu Cougars to stay out of the Pac-12 cellar. Therefore, the other members can start preparing for the top 11 spots as of today!

Buster_Panda

Get your facts straight ……Ben Howland is the best coach in the PAC-12.

No freaking Way Oregon doesn’t take at least 3rd in the Pac 12 next year. Altman and Oregon weren’t picked to win a single Pac 10 game last year and won 9 counting the Pac 10 Tourney. Sure Oregon losses Catron but Joesph is a freaking stud guard transferring from Minasota. Brown well he will probably lead the Pac 12 in scoring next year. Kingma he was the 3rd leading scorer in the Country last year. Barron was a espn 150 pg until he picked Oregon and got dropped down to a 3 star. Keumper is a big man with range. Emory is a freaking stud and probably better then Catron .Olu will be a freaking monster next year for Oregon. Plus Oregon will land one more player once both T-Williams and Seiferth transfer i’m hoping for DeAndre Daniels a former 5 star SF/PF that is a freaking beast. Loyd will be alot better next year along with Singler. Nared should be much improved and a healthy Jacob well he will tear up this weak Pac 12. I wouldn’t be surprised if Oregon won the Pac 12 next year. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO