Labour are in a pickle, but the Tories must keep their heads down: lessons from my new polling report

Many Conservatives reading Diagnosis of Defeat, my polling report on the Labour Party’s predicament, will probably have felt a flicker of schadenfreude. It is certainly true that Labour have very deep-rooted problems that go well beyond Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn, the proximate causes of their disastrous defeat. The belief among former Labour supporters that the party had ceased to represent them while taking their votes for granted had been growing for many years, as they explained in devastating detail in my post-election focus groups.

Worse still, the voters who deserted Labour see the party’s problems in a completely different light from that of many of the members who will decide its future. While Labour “defectors” said they did not want Corbyn to be Prime Minister, distrusted Labour’s policies and felt the party did not listen to them – not least because it had tried to stand in the way of Brexit – members were more likely to blame the media, Conservative lies, and the voters, as well as Brexit for dominating an election in which they felt they would otherwise have been on stronger ground. Three quarters of them think Labour did not deserve to lose, and nearly six in ten think their party’s values are closer to those of the British public as a whole than the Tories’ – a view shared by just one in twenty Labour-Conservative switchers. Uniquely, they consider Corbyn the best Labour leader of recent times, and two thirds of them think the party had the right policies and only need a strong leader and a good campaign to be in a strong position at the next election – which only 15% of Labour members expect to result in another Tory victory.

Several Labour MPs have urged serious study of the research, knowing real change is needed if the party is to recover. But other senior figures are eager to take the party down a different branch of what must surely be the wrong direction. Andrew Murray, a Corbyn adviser and leader of the powerful Unite union, writes in Tribune that Labour should not get caught up in the “arid binary” of whether the result was down to Brexit or Corbyn, and he is right about that. While he’s also correct that Labour’s “cloudy” Brexit policy and parliamentary obstructionism were damaging, I am not so sure about his claim that the party’s “transformative message about a different kind of society” failed to impress the voters simply because of “the communications failure of the election campaign.” Though Murray correctly notes that Labour’s long decline predates both Brexit and the Corbyn leadership, his remedy – a revival of class struggle and mass action – seems a million miles from the lives and priorities of the actual people we spoke to over the last month for my report.

Ultimately, the Labour Party will have to decide for itself whether it wants to get back in touch with those people or scurry back down the rabbit hole of socialist theory. Conservatives, meanwhile, should ignore Labour’s travails completely and act as though they are already faced with the kind of Opposition that is ready to supplant them at any moment. In fact, there are a number of points in my report that should concentrate Tory minds.

Nearly a quarter of Labour defectors, including 17% of Labour-Conservative switchers, still identify with Labour or think of Labour as “their” party. Voters as a whole are as likely as not (and Labour defectors are more likely than not) to say they would trust Labour more than the Conservatives with Britain’s public services. Though only a minority say they think the Labour Party “wants to help ordinary people get on in life,” “stands for fairness,” or that it’s “heart is in the right place,” voters as a whole are still more likely to say they are true of Labour than the Tories. One in five Labour defectors, and 14% of Labour-Conservative switchers, say “2019 was an unusual election and the reasons I didn’t vote Labour were very specific – I will probably vote Labour again next time.” Only 17% of Labour defectors, and only a quarter of Labour-Conservative switchers, say they cannot see themselves voting Labour again in the future.

Listening to the former Labour voters in our focus groups, all of which took place in what would once have been thought the party’s heartland, one of the most striking things was the sense that they felt liberated from the tribe, and empowered by the experience of changing their vote and seeing the result. They have high hopes for Boris Johnson and the Tories, but their support is strictly conditional on delivery. Delivery of what? This is part of the problem. Another striking finding from my research was the idea that rather than a fourth Tory term, this was a new beginning, a completely new government. As one put it, Boris represents “a lot of hope and a fresh start” – an invigorating accolade, but also perhaps a worrying one for a PM who finds expectations not only high but perilously unspecific.

The trust Labour squandered over Brexit will not return simply because the legislation taking us out of the EU is complete. But by the same token, nor will previously frustrated leave voters stick with the Tories simply out of gratitude for getting Brexit done. “What have you done for me lately?” will be the question in four or five years’ time. Labour are in a pickle, but the Tories must keep their heads down.

Links

Lord Ashcroft's Website
– Lord Ashcroft’s main website details his biography and work in the areas of business, politics, philanthropy, gallantry, publishing and journalism.

Victoria Cross Heroes
– First published in 2006, Victoria Cross Heroes was written to mark the 150th anniversary of the creation of the VC, along with many heroes awarded Britain and the Commonwealth’s highest decoration for bravery in the face of the enemy.

Special Forces Heroes
– First published in 2008, Special Forces Heroes continued Lord Ashcroft’s celebration of bravery by telling the stories of valour by the recipients of his Special Forces’ medal collection.

George Cross Heroes
– First published in 2010, George Cross Heroes told the remarkable stories behind the awards of the GC, Britain and the Commonwealth’s highest award for civilian bravery.

Heroes of the Skies
– First published in 2012, Heroes of the Skies is the fourth book in Lord Ashcroft’s bravery series and tells the stories of more than 80 British, Commonwealth and other Allied airmen awarded medals for gallantry in the air.

Special Ops Heroes
– First published in 2014, Special Ops Heroes is the fifth book in Lord Ashcroft’s bravery series and recounts the inspirational stories behind more than 50 groups of gallantry and service medals that are part of his Special Forces medals collection.

The Lord Ashcroft Gallery
– The gallery at the Imperial War Museum in London was opened in November 2010 and houses the world’s largest collection of VCs, amassed by Lord Ashcroft, along with VCs and GCs already in the care of the museum.