000
FXUS61 KCTP 100312
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1012 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
In the mean the next 8 days will be dominated by an upper leveltrough. The initial trough will move to our east this weekend as
will the massive cold surface high. A wave to our west will bring
snow and a wintry mix to the region Sunday into Monday ahead of a
weak cold front. By midweek another surge of arctic air will
approach the region. This system will likely bring some snow and
potentially one of the coldest air masses to invade our region
since the winter of 2015. The 850 mb temperatures could be in the
-20C range by Thursday and Friday. Next week could end on a frigid
note.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Another update for all elements. Most areas will remain cloudy to
mostly cloudy.
Radar shows snow bands over central areas weakening. Band that
came through our office gave us a dusting. Most of the
accumulating snow will be in the northwest. The HRRR keeps snow in
Warren County overnight with the potential in the extreme
northwestern part of the county for another 4-8 inches of snow
before all is said and done. Grids were nudged with HRRR QPF to
get numbers close to this. The blends were much lower than the
HRRR.
Overall a cold night. Snow showers mainly in northwestern areas
and some lighter snow in central and southwestern mountains. Most
accumulating snows in northwestern areas closer to the lake.
Overnight lows mainly teens and 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The HRRR was used to show the snow lingering into the day and the
total snow is likely 4-8 as stated above. Most of this should
fall before 7 AM Saturday morning. Perhaps 1-3 will fall in this
period as things wind down.
To the south and east a quieter and sunnier day. Still quite cold.
Most areas will be several degrees warmer than Friday was and
there will be less wind. Always a plus when the wind is light.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We modified the Sunday into Sunday night forecast with the new
guidance. This produced faster onset of the warm advection induced
snow. Some models are very fast with light snow in western areas
before sunrise Sunday. We blended the superblend and some slower
guidance to compromise. But snow will spread west to east Sunday.
It gets really complicated as nearly all forecast systems show
some accumulating snow potential but, all show the surge of the
850 hPa 0C line into southwestern PA Sunday afternoon/evening and
into north-central areas overnight Sunday around midnight or so.
It is possible northwestern areas will never get that warm.
Thus had to show mixing snow to ice pellets in southwest and then
southeast. Could be some freezing rain. It is too early to get to
specific as there is considerable uncertainty. But at this time it
is sufficient to acknowledge the potential of snow likely changing
to a wintry mix and probably all rain in the southeast early
Monday. The cold air comes in during the day Monday into Monday
evening to change lingering rain and wintry mix to snow as it
winds down.
Temperatures behind the front Monday into Tuesday are close to
seasonal.
A bit cooler than normal temps indicated early next week, but
longer range models indicate a significant cold front passage
Wed with noticeably below normal temps filtering in for the rest
of next week. Ahead of the arctic surge expected later in the week
there could be another QPF event. Potentially mostly snow in
central and western areas. But the GEFS shows some -18 to -20C air
at 850 hPa with the cold front. About 3-5C colder than the airmass
we had come through today.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Bands of lake effect snow showers will continue overnight into
Saturday morning. Conditions will improve during the afternoon, as
warming aloft occurs and winds shift more to the west and
southwest.
As of 6 PM, still an band of heavier snow showers from near
BFD to just southwest of IPT. Expect a wide range of conditions
overnight at BFD and JST. UNV and AOO should be VFR for much of
the period. VFR conditions expected at IPT, MDT, and LNS.
Earlier discussion below.
Low pressure tracking from the lee of the Rockies to the Ohio
Valley will bring a broad area of snow/rain to the area Sunday
into early Monday.
Outlook...
Sun-Mon...Widespread MVFR/IFR in snow/rain. Becoming breezy Monday
night with snow showers over the wrn 1/3.
Tue...Mainly VFR.
Wed...More snow showers possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Advisory until noon EST Saturday for PAZ005.
Lake Effect SnowWarning until noon EST Saturday for PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Grumm
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...Grumm/RXR
AVIATION...Martin