Good luck with that. $55M is tied up in Arroyo, Harang, Cordero, Rolen and Phillips. Thats 20 other spots that need to be filled with about 15-20 million. We aren't getting anyone this offseason unless its in a trade and even then where will the money come from to pay him?

It wouldn't shock me to see Arroyo and/or Harang unloaded sometime in August. Arroyo at the very least should clear waivers. If someone gets desperate enough for another starter, or if someone suffers an injury, we could still likely see Bronson headed out.

But still, it's time for Bob to put his money where his mouth is if he's shooting his load all over 2010, and that's what the Rolen deal suggests.

So Rolen's contract for 2009 is covered by Toronto. That's all great and everything. But he's owed $11 million for 2010 plus this $4 million bonus that may or may not still be the responsibility of St. Louis (since it wasn't passed to Toronto when Rolen was traded there in 2008).

My point: I think this may be your "big free-agent acquisition".

From the sounds of it, one would think the Cardinals are still on the hook for that bonus.

Either way, I've got a bad feeling you may be correct on the "big free-agent acquisition" part, and that would be depressing.

UKFlounder

07-31-2009, 07:08 PM

Hopefully he does. :)

We'll find out! 1+ year into the gig isn't a very big window.

So what is a sufficient window - 2 years, 3 years, 4 years?

Do we await the infamous "5 year plan?"

flyer85

07-31-2009, 07:08 PM

In my 44 years of being a Reds fan, I have not, until now, ever had the thought that the Reds were "unwatchable".

It really doesn't matter how it actually turns out, this is an incredibly ill-conceived trade.

In a year where prospects are golden and overvalued, we seemingly overpay for 1 year of a player who's a huge injury risk (albeit a good player).

I beleive this trade consitutes a spanking offense.amazing isn't it. In a year like this and no market for Rolen "the pimp" makes as a good of a deal as anyone who was selling in terms of what he gave versus what he got.

Next year's roster of position players, circa. August 1: Bruce, Stubbs, Votto, Alonso, Phillips, Rolen, Hanigan, Frazier, Dickerson, Balentien, Rosales, backup C to be acquired, SS to be acquired (I'd target Miggy and just let the IF hit the s--- out of the ball next year). Alternative back ups: Heisey, Sutton, Gomes. Looks a lot better to me than any roster we've seen this year.

Matt700wlw

07-31-2009, 07:09 PM

So what is a sufficient window - 2 years, 3 years, 4 years?

Do we await the infamous "5 year plan?"

I'll get back to you on that :)

dougdirt

07-31-2009, 07:10 PM

Hopefully they can unload one of the Krivsky all stars.

If we couldn't do it now why would we be able to in December?

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 07:11 PM

Hey, I just thought of something. The $4MM Toronto included can play for Willy Taveras in 2010.

Sweet.

OnBaseMachine

07-31-2009, 07:12 PM

For the first time ever, I'm considering just dropping the Reds. I can't believe I'm saying that because I'm an absolute diehard fan. I have never felt like this before. I travel four hours to Cincy at least 5-6 times a year and usually attend 12-14 games a year. And for what? To watch them lose. Unfortunately, I've already bought tickets to the series against the Nats (hey! at least I get to see Dunner) but this may be the last time I go. I need to just drop the Reds and become a Cardinals fan. Walt Jocketty and the Reds have sucked the life out of me.

nate

07-31-2009, 07:12 PM

Hey, I just thought of something. The $4MM Toronto included can play for Willy Taveras in 2010.

Sweet.

I knew there was a bright side!

edabbs44

07-31-2009, 07:12 PM

If we couldn't do it now why would we be able to in December?

I'm thinking August

traderumor

07-31-2009, 07:13 PM

I dunno, the hand wringing over Zach Stewart kind of reminds me of Zach Ward hand wringing a few years back http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ward--001zac

Then again, it could BJ Ryan, part deuex. Just never know with pitching prospects, do ya?

Matt700wlw

07-31-2009, 07:13 PM

For the first time ever, I'm considering just dropping the Reds. I can't believe I'm saying that because I'm an absolute diehard fan. I have never felt like this before. I travel four hours to Cincy at least 5-6 times a year and usually attend 12-14 games a year. And for what? To watch them lose. Unfortunately, I've already bought tickets to the series against the Nats (hey! at least I get to see Dunner) but this may be the last time I go. I need to be just drop the Reds and become a Cardinals fan. Walt Jocketty and the Reds have sucked the life out of me.

There have been plenty of reasons to leave before the Rolen deal. :p:

RedsBaron

07-31-2009, 07:14 PM

Rolen's a Hall of Famer already, IMO, and his defense throughout his career is arguably greater than that of Brooks Robinson or Mike Schmidt.

His HOF Monitor score is only 64. Mind you, the HOF Monitor doesn't measure how good a player really is/was, only how his stats compare to the average member of the Hall of Fame. Rolen is a long way from the score of 100 of the "average" member of the HOF and, at age 34, I don't like his chances at this point.

gm

07-31-2009, 07:15 PM

If the Reds didn't want Encarnacion then they shouldn't have given him a 2 year deal.

Can't argue with that logic, still glad he's gone. EdE was the last of JimBo's acquisitions still on the roster

the Reds are a distant 3rd place on my pro-sports "care-O-meter" these days

For the first time ever, I'm considering just dropping the Reds. I can't believe I'm saying that because I'm an absolute diehard fan. I have never felt like this before. I travel four hours to Cincy at least 5-6 times a year and usually attend 12-14 games a year. And for what? To watch them lose. Unfortunately, I've already bought tickets to the series against the Nats (hey! at least I get to see Dunner) but this may be the last time I go. I need to be just drop the Reds and become a Cardinals fan. Walt Jocketty and the Reds have sucked the life out of me.

Nah, you won't leave.

You've got the sickness.

Same one the rest of us have. :beerme:

Puffy

07-31-2009, 07:15 PM

Yeah. Firing GM after GM after GM has really worked over the years....how about we actually let one stick around and implement his plan? That'd be different.

In a few years, maybe I'll be ready to fire the guy....but not 1+ year into the gig knowing his track record in St. Louis.

Come on Matt - Jocketty has only overseen winners in Oakland and St Louis. Thats only two places! He's obvious either clueless or just lucky.

SirFelixCat

07-31-2009, 07:15 PM

You have to think that one of Harang/Arroyo/CoCo is traded by Aug 31...there's just not enough room, $$$-wise to improve this team, as it is now, come 2010.

Tom Servo

07-31-2009, 07:15 PM

Dusty says Rolen will bat 5th
Dusty clearly doesn't respect him.

Benihana

07-31-2009, 07:16 PM

I dunno, the hand wringing over Zach Stewart kind of reminds me of Zach Ward hand wringing a few years back http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ward--001zac

Then again, it could BJ Ryan, part deuex. Just never know with pitching prospects, do ya?

Ward was in A ball at the time. Stewart has been dominating AAA.

HUGE difference.

I can't f'ing believe this trade. We would have been better off adding Wood and getting Peavey.

OnBaseMachine

07-31-2009, 07:16 PM

Alonso + EdE would have been a better deal than this one.

Marc D

07-31-2009, 07:17 PM

Yeah. Firing GM after GM after GM has really worked over the years....how about we actually let one stick around and implement his plan? That'd be different.

In a few years, maybe I'll be ready to fire the guy....but not 1+ year into the gig knowing his track record in St. Louis.

People said the same thing about Dan O and Special K. Give them time.

How many more moves like today and WT do we give him?

M2

07-31-2009, 07:17 PM

Anybody know what the response on Bluejayzone is like?

They're all out getting cookies at Tim Horton's.

WVRedsFan

07-31-2009, 07:17 PM

I have to think that the Reds gavee up on Edwin, decided he had to go no matter what they got in return, and thought bringing in a player of the stature of Rolen would reap benefits in the future. I doubt we'll see Rolen much longer than next year, but he'll bring some veteran presence (there's that phrase again) to the team and he can lead by example.

I'm really not into slitting my wrists over losing a third sacker who was error prone and never lived up to his potential. I wish Edwin well, but I'm glad to see him go because all anyone was ever going to see was what he was. As for the other two players...who know what they might become. Remember we released some relievers who have done well, but we released some who have been stinkers, too. You never know, but you do know that Rolen will be stellar while he's here. Injuries? Wasn't Edwin out for two months? How about the RedsZone darling Volquez? It happens even when you're young and is a part of the game.

dougdirt

07-31-2009, 07:17 PM

I dunno, the hand wringing over Zach Stewart kind of reminds me of Zach Ward hand wringing a few years back http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ward--001zac

Then again, it could BJ Ryan, part deuex. Just never know with pitching prospects, do ya?

The only thing Ward and Stewart had in common was a lot of ground balls. Stewart has two legit plus pitches and success in the high minors.

traderumor

07-31-2009, 07:17 PM

Anybody know what the response on Bluejayzone is like?I'm guessing they're wondering why they gave up a guy having a rebound season for a guy hitting .200 that can't throw the ball to first base ;)

nate

07-31-2009, 07:18 PM

Anybody know what the response on Bluejayzone is like?

I was just wondering the same thing!

gm

07-31-2009, 07:18 PM

Jeff Russell for Buddy Bell 2.0

I still rank an aged Bell as the Red's #1 all-around 3rd baseman in the modern era

(Heine Groh doesn't qualify, and neither does Peter Edward or Doggie)

Rolen has a chance to be #2...Spuds had better not look behind him

pedro

07-31-2009, 07:18 PM

I'm not going to get my panties in a bunch over the loss of a pitching prospect, especially a Reds one. I've been a Reds fan for the better part of 30 years and Trevor Hoffman is the only guy I can think of who went somewhere else and really had that much of a significant career. And, well, you all know what happened with the guys that stayed. Most of them sucked.

WVRedsFan

07-31-2009, 07:20 PM

If we couldn't do it now why would we be able to in December?

You probably never will. You'll have to give them away, but that's the problem with early extended contracts. They seldom work out, a lesson Wayne didn't learn.

RedEye

07-31-2009, 07:20 PM

Alonso + EdE would have been a better deal than this one.

Really? I mean, I realize they are both highly questionable deals. But I would call the Alonso + EE deal "unbelievably awful" and this one just plain "bad."

Cyclone792

07-31-2009, 07:21 PM

His HOF Monitor score is only 64. Mind you, the HOF Monitor doesn't measure how good a player really is/was, only how his stats compare to the average member of the Hall of Fame. Rolen is a long way from the score of 100 of the "average" member of the HOF and, at age 34, I don't like his chances at this point.

Right, who knows with the BBWAA anymore. I probably should have prefaced that by stating he's a Hall of Famer in my book. When I look at third sackers, Rolen's higher on that list than most people believe. The last time I looked closely at third basemen, I had Rolen pegged as 11th all-time which is easily good enough for the Hall for me.

Of course, the three guys I have pegged in the 8-9-10 slots (Santo, Hack and Groh) aren't in the Hall either so who knows. :D

TheNext44

07-31-2009, 07:23 PM

OPS for NL LFers
2009-776
2008-802
2007-834
2006-837

Edwin Career: 793.

There's not a big difference.

Reds can't get by with a league average LF. They have that now. They need a big bat there. And who knows how well EE would play it.

RedsManRick

07-31-2009, 07:23 PM

How highly regarded was Bud Smith when he was part of the package that landed Rolen in St. Louis?

I'm not happy about giving up Stewart, but let's be realistic about the range of possibilities. It's not just makes the majors versus doesn't. He could end up as a back of the rotation guy. He could be a middle reliever. While the odds of him making the majors is pretty high at this point, that's still a long way from being a big contributor.

Don't get me wrong, I loathe this trade -- but it's because EE will be a very cost effective 3B/DH for the next few years and because Roenicke is an effective middle reliever right now. Even if Stewart doesn't pan out at all, the Jays are likely going to get more value than the Reds.

gm

07-31-2009, 07:23 PM

Good comp. I liked the Buddy Bell years. Now it's time to find Bo Diaz.

Where were you? Jock got "Bo Diaz" last winter in a trade for Farney

traderumor

07-31-2009, 07:25 PM

The only thing Ward and Stewart had in common was a lot of ground balls. Stewart has two legit plus pitches and success in the high minors.Yea, I knew that is what you would say. Folks were pretty high on Ward and upset when we traded him for "f'ing Kyle Lohse," and you now have the benefit of hindsight on Ward.

I respect your knowledge of the Reds farm system, but seriously, the hyperbole you've been throwing around about Stewart in this thread sounds like agent talk.

The problem with wanting the Reds to make deals are the brain donors for the Reds who will be making the deals. Zach Stewart's inclusion alone makes this a horrendous, terrible, putrid, steaming pile of...no, words really can't discribe how lothsome this is.

I don't care if Scott Rolen wins three straight triple crowns and Zach Stewart washes out, this is still a mind-bogglingly stupid trade to make. The fact that they seem to be planning on re-upping Rolen just magnifies their incompetence.

Scott Rolen's numbers are in decline and he's showing every sign of physical breakdown - no matter how great he was in the past - you do not take him for a rental or invest (waste) future resourceso n him. If they extend him for another two years and they get 162 games total from him, it's more than they deserve to expect (and they have no reason to believe that any of those games will be near peak performance either).

And to give up Zach Stewart in a deal like this sinks it well below the depths of the Taveras signing in terms of stupidity alone. Yeah, he's just a unproven prospect, but he's a TALENTED YOUNG PITCHER -one of the best arms in the system, an arm that can kep the ball on the ground and in the park and he's positioned to quite possible be a candidate for your starting rotation. Even if Rolen surprises and Stewart utterly washes out, this is a monstrously stupid deal!

You want to include Stewart in a deal for a 3B? Fine! bring me Ryan Zimmerman - not a broken down 34 yo whose best days are way behind him.

I thought we might be in trouble wanting action from the Island of misfit baseball minds, but thi was beyond my wildest horror. Be careful what you wish for, Hello, ten more years of suck!

dougdirt

07-31-2009, 07:27 PM

Yea, I knew that is what you would say. Folks were pretty high on Ward and upset when we traded him for "f'ing Kyle Lohse," and you now have the benefit of hindsight on Ward.

I respect your knowledge of the Reds farm system, but seriously, the hyperbole you've been throwing around about Stewart in this thread sounds like agent talk.

You say people were high on Ward.... but he wasn't even a top 10 prospect in a weak system at time.

Doc. Scott

07-31-2009, 07:28 PM

Stewart has had a phenomenal year, but at the end of the day you're still talking about a guy with 124 pro innings in less than fifty total appearances.

I don't like to lose a pitcher who profiles well for GABP, but while Zach has a very solid chance to be at least an okay reliever in the majors, I think it's very far from a sure thing that he's a starter. 14 starts does not a future ace make- and it's doubtful Stewart will be helping a major league club in 2010 as a starter. A reliever? Yes, very possibly. A starter? Not likely.

---
"Building for the future" hasn't worked for the last decade. I guess I'm willing to stop talking as much about "the future" and start talking about "now". It can't turn out much worse than the other way did.

WVRedsFan

07-31-2009, 07:29 PM

For the first time ever, I'm considering just dropping the Reds. I can't believe I'm saying that because I'm an absolute diehard fan. I have never felt like this before. I travel four hours to Cincy at least 5-6 times a year and usually attend 12-14 games a year. And for what? To watch them lose. Unfortunately, I've already bought tickets to the series against the Nats (hey! at least I get to see Dunner) but this may be the last time I go. I need to be just drop the Reds and become a Cardinals fan. Walt Jocketty and the Reds have sucked the life out of me. When you're into this Reds-Love thing for something like 50 years, you'll understand that this trade in a vacume looks silly, but it's not the whole story.

I was passing through your hometown this afternoon on my way home from Charleston, when I heard the news and thought about you and other RedsZoners. Many folks here (not necessarily you) really thought Edwin had potential and rooted for him even as he threw the ball widely to first base. Even when he would go 7-7 and follow it up with 1-20.

To a baseball GM or a manager, that had to be maddening. And no matter how much instruction he got, he just didn't get better. Many said he was young, but he was nearing 27. Time to cut bait. I thought about that and wondered how everyone would react and I think I know now. Sleep on it before you cut bait. My Dad talked about the years between 1940 and 1961 like they were purgatory. He always said 1961 was worth the previous 20 years. Someday We'll feel like that. I hope.

TheNext44

07-31-2009, 07:29 PM

Zach Stewart will win a Cy Young for Toronto. Bank on it. Seriously.

Zach Stewart would never win a Cy Young for Cincinnati. Bank on it. :cool:

GAC

07-31-2009, 07:29 PM

I'm not going to get my panties in a bunch over the loss of a pitching prospect, especially a Reds one. I've been a Reds fan for the better part of 30 years and Trevor Hoffman is the only guy I can think of who went somewhere else and really had that much of a significant career. And, well, you all know what happened with the guys that stayed. Most of them sucked.

Yeah, I agree with you. It's the 11M that could have been better invested IMO. We're not the Yanks.

OnBaseMachine

07-31-2009, 07:31 PM

You say people were high on Ward.... but he wasn't even a top 10 prospect in a weak system at time.

Exactly. According to BA, Stewart just barely missed their top 50 midseason prospect list.

BA on the trade:

J.J. Cooper: Actually it's Zack Stewart, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Roenicke for Scott Rolen. Alonso and EE for Rolen would have been historically bad in the Kazmir-Zambrano bracket of bad trades. This one still seems absolutely baffling for the Reds. They pick up a 34-year-old 3B with an 11-million contract for next year who traded straight up for Troy Glaus just a year and a half ago. Rolen makes the Reds a better team for the rest of the year, but the difference between being a 74 and a 78 win team is absolutely meaningless. Our Reds correspondent John Fay reported recently that the Reds payroll for next year will likely be static or down from this year's payroll, signing Rolen adds another expensive, injury-prone player on the downside of his career to a club that needs some more young, cheap talent. It's a great trade for the Blue Jays as Stewart could be an impact arm either as a very solid starting pitcher or as a potential closer, Roenicke is a plus-arm reliever who needs to sharpen his command and Encarnacion is a much younger and cheaper third baseman than Rolen who has been a solid hitter when healthy.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1249058713

Cyclone792

07-31-2009, 07:31 PM

My Dad talked about the years between 1940 and 1961 like they were purgatory. He always said 1961 was worth the previous 20 years. Someday We'll feel like that. I hope.

That's what I hope to feel ... if the Reds ever win another NL pennant.

traderumor

07-31-2009, 07:31 PM

You say people were high on Ward.... but he wasn't even a top 10 prospect in a weak system at time.Oh come on, now you are being disingenous. Zach Ward was a golden child around these parts for his hot streak in Dayton. He really wasn't around long enough in the Reds system to get an established ranking. He came and went in 2005.

redsfandan

07-31-2009, 07:31 PM

Good luck with that. $55M is tied up in Arroyo, Harang, Cordero, Rolen and Phillips. Thats 20 other spots that need to be filled with about 15-20 million. We aren't getting anyone this offseason unless its in a trade and even then where will the money come from to pay him?

If we couldn't do it now why would we be able to in December?

I'm thinking August
So am I. The 7/31 deadline meant alot more for players that made less than $8-10m. My bet is that Arroyo will be dealt by the last trading deadline (8/31). He's been better and he makes a little less than Harang. Don't include his contract and add a bump up to $80m for next year and we could have $30-35m for those other 20 spots instead of $15-20m.

M2

07-31-2009, 07:32 PM

Where were you? Jock got "Bo Diaz" last winter in a trade for Farney

I knew Bo Diaz and Ramon Hernandez is no Bo Diaz.

dougdirt

07-31-2009, 07:34 PM

Zach Stewart would never win a Cy Young for Cincinnati. Bank on it. :cool:

I agree. Our pitching coaches aren't nearly as good as theirs. They will take Stewart and turn him into something we couldn't.

Matt700wlw

07-31-2009, 07:35 PM

This is one of those days I miss the old gig. Today was always a crazy, fun, exciting day at the Big One.

:)

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 07:36 PM

You say people were high on Ward.... but he wasn't even a top 10 prospect in a weak system at time.

Gotta agree with Doug. There's no comparison between Stewart and Ward. Ward was in A Ball and Stewart has breezed through the system and had success atAA. His ability to keep the ball on the ground mad e him ezactly what was need by this organization and in too small supply.

Yeah prospects are over-rated most of the time and you should not be afraid to include them in deals, but get something in return! This was a waste and you can't convince me that there aren't at least 25 GMs out there that couldn't have gotten this deal done with EdE and Roenicke alone (still too much), but Riccardi new he had a real sucker on the line. Oh, wait though! Those other 25 GMs were competent enoough to know that Rolen is overpaid, a huge health risk and in decline. Once again, Walt bids against himself with disasterous results.

dougdirt

07-31-2009, 07:36 PM

Oh come on, now you are being disingenous. Zach Ward was a golden child around these parts for his hot streak in Dayton. He really wasn't around long enough in the Reds system to get an established ranking. He came and went in 2005.

His stuff didn't project to be more than a #3 starter at the time. He was also a college guy in Low A with good but not great strikeout rates. He wasn't a top 10 guy in the system at the time.

HokieRed

07-31-2009, 07:38 PM

Once Toronto fans saw ED E play 3b, they would have come for their guy's head if the only return was EE and Roenicke.

pedro

07-31-2009, 07:38 PM

The hyperbole around here is comical.

I'm still waiting for that Bailey fellow to pan out too.

Maybe he will, maybe he won't....but now Zack Stewart is going to win a Cy Young?

Hysterical.

RedLegSuperStar

07-31-2009, 07:38 PM

I just fear Rolens injury problems will creep up on this team...

You'll be missed Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke(Great guy.. met and chatted with him at RedsFest)

Guacarock

07-31-2009, 07:39 PM

Good luck with that. $55M is tied up in Arroyo, Harang, Cordero, Rolen and Phillips. Thats 20 other spots that need to be filled with about 15-20 million. We aren't getting anyone this offseason unless its in a trade and even then where will the money come from to pay him?

Look for either Harang or Arroyo to clear waivers and be traded in August. With the $11-$12 million savings, we can make a hefty downpayment on a real TOR free-agent pitcher this winter, say, Brandon Webb.

Then we can use the savings from Gonzalez leaving ($5.375 million) and Hernandez leaving ($8 M) to get us a decent free-agent SS (say Scutaro, now with the Blue Jays), free-agent LF (say the Yanks' Nady signing cheap after coming off an injury-plagued season) and maybe even a reliable catching tandem partner for Hanigan (say KC's Miguel Olivo).

Go that route, and in a weak NL Central division, we can most certainly compete in 2010. Consider the possibilities:

Maybe he will, maybe he won't....but now Zack Stewart is going to win a Cy Young?

Hysterical.

MattyHo4Life

07-31-2009, 07:43 PM

For the first time ever, I'm considering just dropping the Reds. I can't believe I'm saying that because I'm an absolute diehard fan. I have never felt like this before. I travel four hours to Cincy at least 5-6 times a year and usually attend 12-14 games a year. And for what? To watch them lose. Unfortunately, I've already bought tickets to the series against the Nats (hey! at least I get to see Dunner) but this may be the last time I go. I need to be just drop the Reds and become a Cardinals fan. Walt Jocketty and the Reds have sucked the life out of me.

OBM,

You sound just like me... only about 15 years ago.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 07:45 PM

You have to think that one of Harang/Arroyo/CoCo is traded by Aug 31...there's just not enough room, $$$-wise to improve this team, as it is now, come 2010.

I'd like to think so, but the Reds/Jocketty aren't out there to deal them to, so it may not happen.

SirFelixCat

07-31-2009, 07:47 PM

I'd like to think so, but the Reds/Jocketty aren't out there to deal them to, so it may not happen.

I'm just saying that that is what makes sense to me. They HAVE to unload one of them to give them room to build upon this move going into next year. There are just too many holes to leave the status quo.

Then again, we had the same holes before the 2009, so who the hell knows?:confused: :sad:

klw

07-31-2009, 07:48 PM

http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseball/2009/07/31/10329196.html

OAKLAND -- When the Blue Jays started shopping Scott Rolen these past couple of weeks it was as a courtesy to a player who had asked to be moved closer to his Indiana home for personal reasons.

But when the deal was struck, it was so attractive to the Jays that general manager J.P. Ricciardi said he would have had to consider it under any circumstances.

Rolen was dealt to the Reds yesterday in exchange for third baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitchers Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke.

“We were able to get younger at third base and we really, really like the arms we got back, plus we saved $6 million (on Rolen’s 2010 salary),” said Ricciardi. “We weren’t going to trade him just for the sake of trading him but, even if he hadn’t asked (for the trade) we would have had to take a hard look at this as presented.”

Encarnacion is making $2 million this year and will earn $4.75 million next year, about $6.25 million less than Rolen. In limited playing time this year, the 26-year-old from the Dominican Republic was hitting just .209 with five home runs, well off his career averages.

In 514 big-league games he has averaged .261 with 71 homers and 263 RBI.

Roenicke has split his season between Triple A Louisville and with the Reds. At Louisville, he appeared in 27 games with 12 saves and an ERA of 2,.57. With the Reds he has a 2.70 ERA in 11 games.

Stewart was a third round pick in the 2008 draft but has rocketed through the minors, pitching at A, Double A and Triple A this year. In his two minor-league seasons, he has a 5-5 record with a 1.52 ERA and seven saves.

“We’ll evaluate (Stewart) a little more before we decide what to do with him,” said Ricciardi. “He might be a starter but our scouts think he might be closer to the big leagues as a back-end-of-the-bullpen kind of guy.”

redsfandan

07-31-2009, 07:48 PM

One thing that I like is how 4/5 of the infield will look:

C - Hanigan
1st - Votto
2nd - Phillips
SS - ????
3rd - Rolen

OnBaseMachine

07-31-2009, 07:48 PM

OBM,

You sound just like me... only about 15 years ago.

Yeah, you were originally a Reds fan, right?

I'm strongly considering it man. I can't believe I'm saying that. I hated the Cardinals there for a few years but my opinion of them has changed completely in the last year or so. They are just a great organization dedicated to winning. They'll do anything to win. They're fans are unbelievable. They don't run their great players out of town or give up on young players early. I'm sick and tired of the Reds crap.

GAC

07-31-2009, 07:50 PM

Baseball Prospectus: We're scratching our heads here

Rolen is having a fantastic season (.320/.370/.476 with defense about five runs above average), but even assuming he has waived his no-trade clause, this one's a puzzler. The remaining money on Rolen's deal (about $3.5 million this season, and $11 million for next) represents a substantial burden for a notoriously cost-conscious team, and given that the Reds have lost 18 of their past 26 games, they're hardly contenders -- fifth in the NL Central at 9½ out, ninth in the wild-card standings at 10½ out

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We're scratching our heads too.

I could see making a move like this if we were on the cusp of winning the division, making the post-season, and needing that little extra UMMMPH. But we're not.

Kc61

07-31-2009, 07:51 PM

Exactly. According to BA, Stewart just barely missed their top 50 midseason prospect list.

BA on the trade:

J.J. Cooper: Actually it's Zack Stewart, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Roenicke for Scott Rolen. Alonso and EE for Rolen would have been historically bad in the Kazmir-Zambrano bracket of bad trades. This one still seems absolutely baffling for the Reds. They pick up a 34-year-old 3B with an 11-million contract for next year who traded straight up for Troy Glaus just a year and a half ago. Rolen makes the Reds a better team for the rest of the year, but the difference between being a 74 and a 78 win team is absolutely meaningless. Our Reds correspondent John Fay reported recently that the Reds payroll for next year will likely be static or down from this year's payroll, signing Rolen adds another expensive, injury-prone player on the downside of his career to a club that needs some more young, cheap talent.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1249058713

This is classic. It comes from the school of "The Reds? They have no right to try to be good soon. Their role is produce possibilities on a low payroll. "

I'm sure Fay, cited in the article, would be the first to say that it's too soon to estimate next year's payroll.

If the Reds acquired A-Rod these guys would all say -- "Why? It's not the right plan. It's too soon. It's too late. Not now. Not later. Never."

Really, now, this trade is a bold move, a risk, but Rolen may be a Hall of Famer, he's not that old, so folks should just live with it. Maybe they'll win a few games.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 07:52 PM

If the Reds are as stupid as I fear and extend Rolen two more years and $20M , I'd probably put the over/under at about 200 total games played. A competent GM would consider that, think the under all too likely and be too scared/smart to make the deal, much less include a solid young arm.

traderumor

07-31-2009, 07:52 PM

His stuff didn't project to be more than a #3 starter at the time. He was also a college guy in Low A with good but not great strikeout rates. He wasn't a top 10 guy in the system at the time.That really wasn't my point. My point is the hand wringing over dealing prospects, esp. pitchers, throwing out "future Cy Young" hyperbole, when he has not thrown one pitch in the Major Leagues, when there is a high probability that he will be nothing but someone who made it to the majors. Your words in a Zach Ward thread the day he was traded were "I liked him." Now, there apparently wasn't really anything to like.

And who knows if he wasn't just exhibiting a hot streak of his own at higher levels in the minors.

Matt700wlw

07-31-2009, 07:54 PM

Yeah, you were originally a Reds fan, right?

I'm strongly considering it man. I can't believe I'm saying that. I hated the Cardinals there for a few years but my opinion of them has changed completely in the last year or so. They are just a great organization dedicated to winning. They'll do anything to win. They're fans are unbelievable. They don't run their great players out of town or give up on young players early. I'm sick and tired of the Reds crap.

You're not going anywhere.

M2

07-31-2009, 07:55 PM

OBM,

You sound just like me... only about 15 years ago.

15 years ago the Reds were a pretty fine team.

You must have been wearing future goggles to dump them for the Birds at that point.

Doc. Scott

07-31-2009, 07:55 PM

Yeah, you were originally a Reds fan, right?

I'm strongly considering it man. I can't believe I'm saying that. I hated the Cardinals there for a few years but my opinion of them has changed completely in the last year or so. They are just a great organization dedicated to winning. They'll do anything to win. They're fans are unbelievable. They don't run their great players out of town or give up on young players early. I'm sick and tired of the Reds crap.

Time lends perspective.

pedro

07-31-2009, 07:55 PM

If the Reds a getting 4 million for Rolen's 2010 salary of 11 million and are dumping the 4.75 EE was going to make then basically they are only paying 2.25 million more for Rolen for next year than they would have been for EE, who is basically useless IMO. If Rolen is healthy, which is admittedly a big IF, then this could work out ok for 2010.

Ltlabner

07-31-2009, 07:57 PM

I'm not terribly distraut over who we gave up. Prospects are just that and bullpen arms are pretty fungable too.

I don't like this deal for what it represents moreso than the lost tallent. Bozo Bob still thinks we are 'this close' and I agree that this is likely our big offseason pickup for the comming offseason. It means that unless we somehow trick someone into taking BA, AH or FC off our hands we're not going to have the money to do anything of note.

So we'll see Rolen and some rearanged deck-chairs in 2010.Yippie.

Also, I can see a scenario where Rolen's dough (in concert with the others) prevents future moves and we get treated to Adam Rosales at 3B every night.

TheNext44

07-31-2009, 07:57 PM

Baseball Prospectus: We're scratching our heads here

Rolen is having a fantastic season (.320/.370/.476 with defense about five runs above average), but even assuming he has waived his no-trade clause, this one's a puzzler. The remaining money on Rolen's deal (about $3.5 million this season, and $11 million for next) represents a substantial burden for a notoriously cost-conscious team, and given that the Reds have lost 18 of their past 26 games, they're hardly contenders -- fifth in the NL Central at 9½ out, ninth in the wild-card standings at 10½ out

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We're scratching our heads too.
I could see making a move like this if we were on the cusp of winning the division, making the post-season, and needing that little extra UMMMPH. But we're not.

The $4M the Jays included and the nearly $5M EE makes next year, which they left out, make this less of a head scratcher. I'd say it about evens it out.

RedLegSuperStar

07-31-2009, 07:57 PM

Fay reports that the Jays are paying the remainder of Rolen's 2009 contract

OnBaseMachine

07-31-2009, 07:58 PM

According to one poster with connections to the Reds minor leagues, a pitching coach who worked with Stewart called this trade "off the wall nuts." I agree.

traderumor

07-31-2009, 07:59 PM

The $4M the Jays included and the nearly $5M EE makes next year, which they left out, make this less of a head scratcher. I'd say it about evens it out.I'll take a healthy Rolen for $6M and a few bullpenners.

savafan

07-31-2009, 07:59 PM

Fay reports that the Jays are paying the remainder of Rolen's 2009 contract

And the team is improved. I don't see what's not to like. Rolen is a well known name also that will excite some fringe fans and bring them out to the ballpark, thinking this 2009 team still has a chance

traderumor

07-31-2009, 08:00 PM

According to one poster with connections to the Reds minor leagues, a pitching coach who worked with Stewart called this trade "off the wall nuts." I agree.Don't forget that Alonso was in this deal at one time.

dougdirt

07-31-2009, 08:00 PM

I don't see what's not to like.

The fact that the Reds could have made this same move without Stewart in December?

Matt700wlw

07-31-2009, 08:01 PM

Don't forget that Alonso was in this deal at one time.

Funny part is, I was reading that part of this thread while on the toilet...

Seemed fitting.

That deal would have had me fuming.

TheNext44

07-31-2009, 08:01 PM

I'm not terribly distraut over who we gave up. Prospects are just that and bullpen arms are pretty fungable too.

I don't like this deal for what it represents moreso than the lost tallent. Bozo Bob still thinks we are 'this close' and I agree that this is likely our big offseason pickup for the comming offseason. It means that unless we somehow trick someone into taking BA, AH or FC off our hands we're not going to have the money to do anything of note.

So we'll see Rolen and some rearanged deck-chairs in 2010.Yippie.

Also, I can see a scenario where Rolen's dough (in concert with the others) prevents future moves and we get treated to Adam Rosales at 3B every night.

Basically, with EE's raise next year, and the money from the Jay's, this raises the payroll around $2M next year.

And if I remember correctly, weren't you predicting that the Reds would be just re-arranging deck chairs this trade deadline? Not saying that just because you got it wrong about today means you'll be wrong about next season, but you do seem to keep moving the goalposts. But I would too, if I had "2009: fail" under my name in every post. :D

smith288

07-31-2009, 08:02 PM

Ill be damned. I said Roenike and I was right. Im so smart.

Will M

07-31-2009, 08:03 PM

does anyone know exactly what Rolen's injuries have been in the past?
are they one offs (say a broken wrist) or things likely to recurr?
thanks.

Matt700wlw

07-31-2009, 08:04 PM

does anyone know exactly what Rolen's injuries have been in the past?
are they one offs (say a broken wrist) or things likely to recurr?
thanks.

He had shoulder surgery, which probably explains where the HR numbers whent...and I believe back problems.

Not sure what else, if anything.

savafan

07-31-2009, 08:05 PM

The fact that the Reds could have made this same move without Stewart in December?

We don't know that. The price could be even higher in December if all other 3rd basemen are off the market

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 08:05 PM

If the Reds a getting 4 million for Rolen's 2010 salary of 11 million and are dumping the 4.75 EE was going to make then basically they are only paying 2.25 million more for Rolen for next year than they would have been for EE, who is basically useless IMO. If Rolen is healthy, which is admittedly a big IF, then this could work out ok for 2010.

No, they are still on the hook for all of Rolen's salary in 2010.

So that makes a $6.25MM extra all for better defense (when he's healthy enough to play).

gm

07-31-2009, 08:05 PM

I knew Bo Diaz and Ramon Hernandez is no Bo Diaz.

You're right, Ramon can run

redsfandan

07-31-2009, 08:05 PM

According to one poster with connections to the Reds minor leagues, a pitching coach who worked with Stewart called this trade "off the wall nuts." I agree.
Now that sounds real objective.

OnBaseMachine

07-31-2009, 08:06 PM

The more I think about this deal the angrier I get. I'm taking a break. See you great folks later.

savafan

07-31-2009, 08:08 PM

.370 career OBP

2009 OBP of .370

Rolen gets on base. He can field the ball AND throw it to first base. He's a leader, and for a team that desperately needs one, that's vitally important.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 08:08 PM

I'm not expecting a Cy Young from Stewart, more like a solid 3rd/4th starter type or a potential closeer to make Cordero expenndable in a year or so.

The fact that he was traded does not bother me as much as the fact that he was traded for nothing of value. Wasting trading chips and dollars are what make this the kind of wretched excrement that keeps this franchise as mediocre as it is.

Signing Rolen to an extension is the only thing that could make this worse. You want to incliude Stewart in a deal? Fine. Wait a year, package him and Roenicke in a deal with Alonso and Frazier and get a real return that can help this franchise climb out of the cesspit, not weight in down and sink it deeper in the...

Matt700wlw

07-31-2009, 08:08 PM

The more I think about this deal the angrier I get. I'm taking a break. See you great folks later.

You need to.

Joint, beer, something :D

dougdirt

07-31-2009, 08:09 PM

We don't know that. The price could be even higher in December if all other 3rd basemen are off the market

Very doubtful.

Ltlabner

07-31-2009, 08:11 PM

Basically, with EE's raise next year, and the money from the Jay's, this raises the payroll around $2M next year.

And if I remember correctly, weren't you predicting that the Reds would be just re-arranging deck chairs this trade deadline? Not saying that just because you got it wrong about today means you'll be wrong about next season, but you do seem to keep moving the goalposts. But I would too, if I had "2009: fail" under my name in every post. :D

That was my prediction yes. But I also said it was *possible* they'd go for Rolen with no other supporting moves. A minor leage catcher and the Balentine kid certinally qualifies. I'd say I nailed that one.

And if you want to describe this season as a success be my guest, but FAIL is what this season is and will be.

I'm not expecting a Cy Young from Stewart, more like a solid 34d/4th starter type or a potential closeer to make Cordero expenndable in a year or so.

The fact that he was traded does not bother me as much as the fact that he was traded for nothing of value. Wasting trading chips and dollars are what make this the kind of wretched excrement that keeps this franchise as mediocre as it is.

Signing Rolen to an extension is the only thing that could make this worse. You want to incliude Stewart in a deal? Fine. Wait a year, package him and Roenicke in a deal with Alonso and Frazier and get a real return that can help thise franchise climb out of the cesspit, not weight in down and sink it deeper in the...

^^^^^

this

Mario-Rijo

07-31-2009, 08:12 PM

I think the big issue is simply this, we can't trust our GM (yet again) to make smart decisions, so in essence we know where we are going because the same guy is driving the car. Losing Stewart is just the writing on the wall.

The $4M the Jays included and the nearly $5M EE makes next year, which they left out, make this less of a head scratcher. I'd say it about evens it out.

Isn't the $4MM to pay the rest of Rolen's salary ($4MM) this year?

pedro

07-31-2009, 08:14 PM

No, they are still on the hook for all of Rolen's salary in 2010.

So that makes a $6.25MM extra all for better defense (when he's healthy enough to play).

MLB.com says the jays are paying 4 mil of rolens 2010 salary.

gm

07-31-2009, 08:15 PM

You're not going anywhere.

Buttermaker couldn't chase Amanda away the day before the big game, either

Highlifeman21

07-31-2009, 08:15 PM

The hyperbole around here is comical.

I'm still waiting for that Bailey fellow to pan out too.

Maybe he will, maybe he won't....but now Zack Stewart is going to win a Cy Young?

Hysterical.

I would venture a guess that the masses would have been happier had we traded Bailey and kept Stewart.

But then again, I could be very wrong.

Since Ryan Wagner, apparently all of our young arms are "can't miss".

Or at least that's what I'm told.

Cueto's the only one that hasn't missed so far, in my book.

Regardless, I like the trade.

redsfandan

07-31-2009, 08:17 PM

No, they are still on the hook for all of Rolen's salary in 2010.

So that makes a $6.25MM extra all for better defense (when he's healthy enough to play).
But this means that the Reds payroll will be even less for THIS year. (Since Toronto is paying the rest of his '09 salary and Hairston is off the books) We just need the Reds to take those savings and put them into the 2010 team.

savafan

07-31-2009, 08:18 PM

Very doubtful.

But it is possible.

The Reds recent history has shown them to be procrastinators in the area of knowing when to deal a player. They tend to overvalue what they have and hang on to guys as cornerstones of the franchise who are really just average major league players.

The Reds went out on a limb here. This trade, like all trades, can't be judged this season, and probably not even next season. We'll have to wait and see how careers play out.

This is just another example of people jumping off the Titanic while it's still docked in port.

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 08:19 PM

MLB.com says the jays are paying 4 mil of rolens 2010 salary.

What about the rest of this years?

I guess I'm confused. They owed him $4M+ this year. So if the Jays give the Reds $4M, why would it be considered for NEXT year?

Red in Chicago

07-31-2009, 08:20 PM

I've got no problem with EE being traded. Don't think he was ever going be anything special. Not thrilled with Rolen's history of health issues, but other than Votto, Cueto, Bruce, Phillips and Volquez, no one is untradeable for me.

Definitely would have preferred a shortstop or outfielder to be brought in, but I'm not complaining about this one. A little better than shuffling chairs on the Titanic.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 08:20 PM

I would venture a guess that the masses would have been happier had we traded Bailey and kept Stewart.

But then again, I could be very wrong.

Since Ryan Wagner, apparently all of our young arms are "can't miss".

Or at least that's what I'm told.

Cueto's the only one that hasn't missed so far, in my book.

Regardless, I like the trade.

What do you like about it? Does Rolen help this team contend in 2010? Would you actually sign him to a say a 2y/ $20M extension given his injury history and declining power numbers. If neither answer is yes, then what's to like about it?

redsfandan

07-31-2009, 08:22 PM

The Reds went out on a limb here. This trade, like all trades, can't be judged this season, and probably not even next season. We'll have to wait and see how careers play out.
The Reds overpaid but until it's a few years from now we won't be able to really judge this deal fairly yet.

redsfandan

07-31-2009, 08:25 PM

What about the rest of this years?

I guess I'm confused. They owed him $4M+ this year. So if the Jays give the Reds $4M, why would it be considered for NEXT year?
I'm going by this:

4:50pm: Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star reports that the Jays will pay all of Rolen's 2009 salary, nearly $4MM. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report that an undisclosed amount of cash is changing hands.

What do you like about it? Does Rolen help this team contend in 2010? Would you actually sign him to a say a 2y/ $20M extension given his injury history and declining power numbers. If neither answer is yes, then what's to like about it?
I'd say yes to the 1st question but, like others have mentioned, the Reds need to do more between now and April 2010.

gm

07-31-2009, 08:29 PM

This is just another example of people jumping off the Titanic while it's still docked in port.

Those were the smart ones. Imagine how "Sven" felt after hearing the news, he was probably relieved that he lost his ticket to Jack in that poker game

Highlifeman21

07-31-2009, 08:30 PM

That was my prediction yes. But I also said it was *possible* they'd go for Rolen with no other supporting moves. A minor leage catcher and the Balentine kid certinally qualifies. I'd say I nailed that one.

And if you want to describe this season as a success be my guest, but FAIL is what this season is and will be.

I've got no problem with EE being traded. Don't think he was ever going be anything special. Not thrilled with Rolen's history of health issues, but other than Votto, Cueto, Bruce, Phillips and Volquez, no one is untradeable for me.

Definitely would have preferred a shortstop or outfielder to be brought in, but I'm not complaining about this one. A little better than shuffling chairs on the Titanic.

I'm pretty much about the same. It's a step in the right direction, IMO. The direction is contending for an NL Central title next season. Screw 2011 or 2012 or...Go for it now. Still need a SS, a LF, and another pitcher or two. But taking 3B off that list puts us that much closer.

I'll say this, an infield of Rolen, Phillips, Votto, and a respectable SS is a contending infield in my book.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 08:34 PM

The Reds overpaid but until it's a few years from now we won't be able to really judge this deal fairly yet.

Two or three years down the road does not matter in this deal. Rolen is highly (over)paid with declining numbers and a huge injury redflag. Stewart has portential to be a solid major league pitcher. You can't convince me that this deal could not have been made for EdE and Roenicke. Even if Rolen surprises and Stewart completely washed out, this was a stupid deal now or three years from now.

The Reds will probably extend Rolen and make this a $30-40M error. Id' rather have seen them take that money and make a run at Beltre or Figgens. That fails, fall back to Frazier and spend the $30-40 toward a TOR pitcher.

Don't like putting too much stock into untested prospects? Shop Stewart to the Braves or Angels and just keep piling on more untested prospects until you get Yunel Escobar, Macier Izturus, Eryk Aybar or even Brandon Wood. Don't waste it foolishly hoping for a miracle renaissance from a brokendown 35yo.

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 08:36 PM

I'm going by this:

4:50pm: Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star reports that the Jays will pay all of Rolen's 2009 salary, nearly $4MM. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report that an undisclosed amount of cash is changing hands.

Ok, so we shed EE's money owed and JHJ's and get Rolen for free in 2009. That's proabably why they paid such a high price in dealing Stewart and Roenicke.

Still, I look at it as the 2009 payroll has been decreased slightly.

We still owe Rolen $11M in 2010 and that number you can bet will be used by the Reds when adding all the salaries account for total 2010 payroll.

Highlifeman21

07-31-2009, 08:38 PM

What do you like about it? Does Rolen help this team contend in 2010? Would you actually sign him to a say a 2y/ $20M extension given his injury history and declining power numbers. If neither answer is yes, then what's to like about it?

What do I like about the deal?

The Reds had given up on EE, so it made sense that he was included in the deal.

As I previously said, Roenicke was the guy I was sad to see go, but as Ltlabner's pointed out, relievers are fungible, so we can easily replace Roenicke.

Stewart was the wild card, but we had to give something to get something, so the fact that we now have a stud defender @ 3B who has a reliable stick, what's not to like? I'm certainly not upset over trading a question mark prospect for proven talent, albeit aged proven talent.

Rolen definitely helps the Reds contend in 2010, although not by himself. Adding Rolen is a step in the right direction, wouldn't you say? We've now upgraded Rolen from EE.

Who knows what kind of extension, if any, we'll offer Rolen, but Rolen's definitely better than EE, and all it took was a reliever and a question mark prospect.

What's not to like?

Stormy

07-31-2009, 08:40 PM

What about the rest of this years?

I guess I'm confused. They owed him $4M+ this year. So if the Jays give the Reds $4M, why would it be considered for NEXT year?

The monetary problem posed here is considerable. Did we just eat up an enormous chunk of any excess payroll we had for 2010, for a lateral 'upgrade'? Where is the money going to come from to add any value at the innumerable other positions still needing to be addressed, if in fact 2010 is the de facto target year to contend? If we have payroll room, why not kick in a little cash to help us unload Harang or Arroyo, or for that matter why couldn't we add a big bat heading into 2009?

We have tons of 'dead' payroll now. And I guess our strategy for 2010 is going to be to hope that Arroyo and Harang miraculously return to 2006 form, everyone gets healthy, and that we can plug in stop-gaps to fill our areas of actual need (LF, SS, SP etc...).

If we were going to trade this much value, I sure wish we could have added someone younger, more productive, healthier and more a part of the long-term picture than Scott Rolen. And Walt's already talking extension?

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 08:41 PM

I'm going by this:

I'd say yes to the 1st question but, like others have mentioned, the Reds need to do more between now and April 2010.

He possibly helps if this team is willing to put up a lot of extra money and make competent decisions in the next 8mos or so, but I see ZERO chances of this. If this team only needed Rolen to contend next year, I wouldn't complain a bit about Rolen for EdE/Roenicke.

jojo

07-31-2009, 08:42 PM

The monetary problem posed here is considerable. Did we just eat up an enormous chunk of any excess payroll we had for 2010, for a lateral 'upgrade'? Where is the money going to come from to add any value at the innumerable other positions still needing to be addressed, if in fact 2010 is the de facto target year to contend? If we have payroll room, why not kick in a little cash to help us unload Harang or Arroyo, or for that matter why couldn't we add a big bat heading into 2009?

We have tons of 'dead' payroll now. And I guess our strategy for 2010 is going to be to hope that Arroyo and Harang miraculously return to 2006 form, everyone gets healthy, and that we can plug in stop-gaps to fill our areas of actual need (LF, SS, SP etc...).

If we were going to trade this much value, I sure wish we could have added someone younger, more productive, healthier and more a part of the long-term picture than Scott Rolen. And Walt's already talking extension?

Rolen is about $6M more than EE would've been.

M2

07-31-2009, 08:43 PM

You're right, Ramon can run

And Bo Diaz was magic.

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 08:43 PM

Stewart was the wild card, but we had to give something to get something, so the fact that we now have a stud defender @ 3B who has a reliable stick, what's not to like?

You mean like $4M? There really was no reason to include Stewart in this deal when WJ should have had all the leverage (Jays wanting to shed payroll, Rolen wanting to come home, etc.).

And look at Rolen's last two years on the back of his baseball card and tell me if that you don't mind him playing 70% of the time.

EE for Rolen with no $$$ involved should have gotten this deal done, but WJ went all in with a pair of two's.

EE and Roenicke was more than enough to get this deal done.

Stormy

07-31-2009, 08:45 PM

The Reds overpaid but until it's a few years from now we won't be able to really judge this deal fairly yet.

My own guess as to how things shakeout: We'll be judging this when Rolen is on the DL or unproductive, and the returning cast of usual suspects, has the Reds 10+ games out of first place by the 2010 All-Star game. That's the overwhelming likelihood in my opinion, and the only factor that could change this is if Walt has a lot of big moves up his sleeve for the offseason. As of right now, I'm not sure where he can get the flexibility to make it happen.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 08:47 PM

You mean like $4M? There really was no reason to include Stewart in this deal when WJ should have had all the leverage (Jays wanting to shed payroll, Rolen wanting to come home, etc.).

And look at Rolen's last two years on the back of his baseball card and tell me if that you don't mind him playing 70% of the time.

EE for Rolen with no $$$ involved should have gotten this deal done, but WJ went all in with a pair of two's.

EE and Roenicke was more than enough to get this deal done.

^^^^
This.

Mario-Rijo

07-31-2009, 08:48 PM

You mean like $4M? There really was no reason to include Stewart in this deal when WJ should have had all the leverage (Jays wanting to shed payroll, Rolen wanting to come home, etc.).

And look at Rolen's last two years on the back of his baseball card and tell me if that you don't mind him playing 70% of the time.

EE for Rolen with no $$$ involved should have gotten this deal done, but WJ went all in with a pair of two's.

EE and Roenicke was more than enough to get this deal done.

And if it wasn't enough he should have walked away. problem is the organization had sat on their hands for so long (mistake #1) they felt forced into doing something to appease the general fan base. Stupid is as stupid does.

And BTW you don't have to usually have to give up something to get something that is a big myth. Ya just have to be able to outsmart your competition Ricciardi did that.

Highlifeman21

07-31-2009, 08:48 PM

You mean like $4M? There really was no reason to include Stewart in this deal when WJ should have had all the leverage (Jays wanting to shed payroll, Rolen wanting to come home, etc.).

And look at Rolen's last two years on the back of his baseball card and tell me if that you don't mind him playing 70% of the time.

EE for Rolen with no $$$ involved should have gotten this deal done, but WJ went all in with a pair of two's.

EE and Roenicke was more than enough to get this deal done.

I certainly won't lose any sleep over the Reds trading a pitching prospect who neither side knows his true role.

The Reds either thought he was a starter and put him in the pen to limit his innings, or they didn't know what to do with him, and by default put him in the pen.

The Blue Jays have already said that they don't know if he'll be a starter or a reliever.

So, definitely not going to lose any sleep over this move. I'll just enjoy better defense @ 3B.

Stormy

07-31-2009, 08:49 PM

Rolen is about $6M more than EE would've been.

Exactly. That's huge on a team that ostensibly needs to be cutting major salaries before they can start adding in 2010. That $6M, and Taveras' $4.5M bump alone, eradicates the long-anticipated event of Gonzo coming off the books. And unless Walt can move the major salaries he's been unable to budge for 3 consecutive deadline, offseason, deadline periods, the Harang, Arroyo, Cordero troika are going to have us right up against limits before we even start shopping for 2010. Unless Rolen is one in a series of bold moves, this has the marks of not being able to go anywhere IMO.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 08:52 PM

Anybody who thinks this was a good trade has no business complainig about the Taveras signing. This is every single bit as stupid, even if it works out better than this FO hopes. Not the kind of risk tis team should take. Stupid from every conceivable angle.

Patrick Bateman

07-31-2009, 08:52 PM

After thinking about this for a bit... I don't completely mind the players that we gave up. Roenicke looks like a good, but not great bullpen arm. One that should fit in a set-up role.

Zach Stewart, has been quite good, albeit in a limited sample as a starter. I think he's a great bet to be a late inning reliever, but not nearly enough evidence to suggest the same as a starter. I think he absolutely does have a chance to be a Derek Lowe, but at the same time, if he were so obviously good, it's hard to imagine why he was thought of as a reliever come draft time, and why the Jays seem to be looking at him as more of a reliever.

Edwin is no longer cheap, can't field, and his bat looks like nothing more than the low .800's he's been doing. As that, I think we can all agree on that he doesn't have much, if any trade value.

In total, I'm not sure if the return is much different than what the Cards gave up for DeRosa. I considered that an overpayment at the time, but he's also a FA to be, and isn't nearly as good as Rolen (closer to EE). With the salary the Jays are covering, he's not an albatross by any means. I think it's arguable that forgetting about how badly the Reds actually need the guy, that the price is pretty reasonable.

Now my biggest question continues to be, is Rolen a fit for the 2010 Reds? For that to happen, the Reds better be ready to contend. I'll take an edabbs approach on this one.... if the Reds make some other moves in addition to this, to make the team a potential contender next year, I wont have any problems with this. If Rolen is THE move, it's a complete waste of assets and misallignment of the team's assets.

Rolen is a really good player, the fielding is obviously still there, and his line drive power might play well enough in GABP's short left might lead to a bigger HR boost than the normal park factors would indicate. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities that he could string together a few high .800 OPS type of numbers outside of the AL East in GABP. The Reds run the risk of injury especially if it means they can't trade him later on next year if the team can't contend, but if the overall plan is to contend next year, and Rolen is just one of a few of the moves on the horizon, I think this can be a very reasonable trade.

Highlifeman21

07-31-2009, 08:53 PM

Anybody who thinks this was a good trade has no business complainig about the Taveras signing. This is every single bit as stupid, even if it works out better than this FO hopes. Not the kind of risk tis team shouldtake. Stupid from every conceivable angle.

The Taveras signing was/is still worse than this deal.

The Taveras deal had no hope of helping this club.

The Rolen trade, however, improves the ballclub.

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 08:58 PM

I certainly won't lose any sleep over the Reds trading a pitching prospect who neither side knows his true role.

You know, I don't get too attached to prospects. I understand they are assets to an organization and many times they can be used as trading chips.

With that said, Stewart was on his way to being a top 50 prospect in all of baseball, quite possibly by this off-season. That might not mean he's a guaranteed future Cy Young award winner for the Reds, but what it does mean is that he would have a bunch of value to other organizations if the Reds dangled him.

I don't mind dangling him for something great to help this club for the future, but it appears they caved and dealt him for nothing more than money. It all really came down to money in the long run and that's a shame.

And Rolen? Pfft. Again, he would have been nice seven years ago when the Reds were at that fork in the road. A day late and a dollar short (literally).

But, hey maybe they can go after Holliday in seven years. Yormon Rodrriquez should be 23 by then and heck, he'd be just a prospect anyway, right?

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 09:03 PM

The Taveras signing was/is still worse than this deal.

The Taveras deal had no hope of helping this club.

The Rolen trade, however, improves the ballclub.

This trade's value this year is virtually nill.

This trade's value is marginal next year unless they can add solid talent at multiple spots and there is no reason to believe this to be so. They dealt for a guy they could've dealt for during the offseason (after taking a run at Beltre or Figgins).

For this deal to help beyond 2010 means they would need to extned him in the face of his health risks and declining production. This alone is so mind-bogglingly foolish that I would have said even this front office wouldn't consider it if Jocketty hadn't made it a special point in the press conference.

This trade was dumber than the Taveras signing by several orders of magnitude (and I still loathe it).

TheNext44

07-31-2009, 09:05 PM

Here is a list of the 26-50th ranked prospects from 2005.

26. CHRIS NELSON, ss, Rockies Scouting Report
"His bat is further along than B.J. Upton's was at the same time."
--NL scout

27. RYAN HOWARD, 1b, Phillies Scouting Report
"When you have power like him, you don't have to pull it. It's not like any park can hold him."
--New Hampshire manager Mike Basso

28. J.J. HARDY, ss, Brewers Scouting Report
"He's a special kid in terms of what's between his ears and his heart."
--Brewers scouting director Jack Zduriencik

29. MIKE HINCKLEY, lhp, Nationals Scouting Report
"What separates with him is the makeup, work ethic, preparation. The physical tools are there, and all those intangibles are there already."
--Nationals farm director Adam Wogan

30. EDWIN JACKSON, rhp, Dodgers Scouting Report
"He had a rough year but I'll take him any day of the week. He's dominant when he has his command."
--AL scout

31. FELIX PIE, of, Cubs Scouting Report
"He's got five tools and all of them have a chance to be above-average. The sky is the limit."
--Sarasota manager Todd Claus

33. JEREMY REED, of, Mariners Scouting Report
"He's another Mark Kotsay. I love the way he plays and I root for him."
--AL scout

34. ZACH DUKE, lhp, Pirates Scouting Report
"You look at him and you think, 'What does this kid have to work on?' He's just so polished."
--Altoona manager Tony Beasley

35. GAVIN FLOYD, rhp, Phillies Scouting Report
"He's had that big league curveball since high school. He just needs more fastball command."
--NL scout

36. ERIC DUNCAN, 3b, Yankees Scouting Report
"His work ethic reminds me of Todd Helton. He's not a guy who falls out of bed and hits. He's a guy who falls out of bed and works, and that's why he hits."
--Battle Creek manager Bill Mosiello

37. BRIAN ANDERSON, of, White Sox Scouting Report
"He's Jeremy Reed with a lot more power potential. He made the White Sox realize that Reed was expendable."
--NL scout

38. SCOTT OLSEN, lhp, Marlins Scouting Report
"He's a horse when he's out on the mound. He tries to do anything he can to use his fastball."
--Jupiter manager Luis Dorante

41. MICHAEL AUBREY, 1b, Indians Scouting Report
"The one thing he's always been able to do is hit a fastball. You can see him seek it out."
--Indians farm director John Farrell

42. RYAN SWEENEY, of, White Sox Scouting Report
"This guy is special. I've been in baseball a long time, and I've never seen a kid like this."
--White Sox farm director Dave Wilder

43. DAN MEYER, lhp, Athletics Scouting Report
"He's a big-game pitcher. He pitches every game with that same level of intensity--as if it was the last game of the season with it all on the line."
--Richmond manager Pat Kelly

44. BRIAN McCANN, c, Braves Scouting Report
"All he does is hit, and no one talks about how good he was defensively last year. He was one of the better catchers in the minors in a year when there weren't many good catchers."
--AL scout

45. JOSH BARFIELD, 2b, Padres Scouting Report
"The kid understands hitting. It's just rare to see a young hitter who understands how to stay inside the ball so well."
--Padres scouting director Bill Gayton

About a 1 in 3 shot of one being a solid major leaguer. Just to put Stewart into perspective.

Playadlc

07-31-2009, 09:06 PM

Anybody who thinks this was a good trade has no business complainig about the Taveras signing. This is every single bit as stupid, even if it works out better than this FO hopes. Not the kind of risk tis team should take. Stupid from every conceivable angle.

What the heck is going on here? You seriously think this is just as stupid as signing one of the worst players in MLB?

I think we should all wait to see what happens this off-season before going off the deep end about this trade.

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 09:07 PM

One other thing, for those that think this is a great trade and that anyone that doesn't is overreacting, well just watch what the baseball world has to say about it in the next few days. I guarantee the reaction will be consistently negative, regarding what the Reds gave up.

I know that won't convince you, but at least you'll know the people that cover baseball for a living agree with some of us. :)

westofyou

07-31-2009, 09:10 PM

One thing for sure is Scott Rolen eats, drinks and craps baseball. It's been awhile since the Reds had a guy like that.

CTA513

07-31-2009, 09:16 PM

One thing for sure is Scott Rolen eats, drinks and craps baseball. It's been awhile since the Reds had a guy like that.

I hope he can also crap money so the Reds have some to spend next season.

edabbs44

07-31-2009, 09:16 PM

One thing for sure is Scott Rolen eats, drinks and craps baseball. It's been awhile since the Reds had a guy like that.

I was actually just thinking the same thing. People can make jokes about leadership and I know that many want to compare it to talent. But when you look at this team and realize that the closest thing that some of these guys have to a vet leader is the dumbest manager in the game, it is a scary thought.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 09:18 PM

What the heck is going on here? You seriously think this is just as stupid as signing one of the worst players in MLB?

I think we should all wait to see what happens this off-season before going off the deep end about this trade.

Yes I do. This is exactly the kind of deal the Reds need to make, if they were looking at it from the Jays side of things.

I love Scott Rolen and was sick when the Reds let him go to the Cards seven years ago - this isn't seven years ago though. He's a very bad injury risk with dropping power numbers. This makes him a terrible risk for an extension, but that is what they are talking of doing. This is just another Harang/Arroyo situation waiting to happen - more dead dollars for a franchise that can't afford any more dead dollars.

This trade could have been made next year in January after more intelligent avenues had at least been explored. That alone makes this a very stupid trade.

M2

07-31-2009, 09:26 PM

One thing for sure is Scott Rolen eats, drinks and craps baseball. It's been awhile since the Reds had a guy like that.

About five years to be exact.

http://z.about.com/d/baseball/1/0/-/B/-/-/barrylarkin.jpg

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 09:27 PM

This trade could have been made next year in January after more intelligent avenues had at least been explored. That alone makes this a very stupid trade.

Exactly.

And I could understand overpaying at the deadline, if the Reds were contending in '09, but let's face it, they are out of it and probably one of the 5 worst teams in baseball right now. If they were contending, the Jays would have had the leverage (making the Reds overpay), but they are not contending, so WJ should have seen that he had the leverage and told the Jays he'd talk to them in 5 months.

Panic.

I would think WJ would be fun to play poker with.

MattyHo4Life

07-31-2009, 09:30 PM

Yeah, you were originally a Reds fan, right?

I'm strongly considering it man. I can't believe I'm saying that. I hated the Cardinals there for a few years but my opinion of them has changed completely in the last year or so. They are just a great organization dedicated to winning. They'll do anything to win. They're fans are unbelievable. They don't run their great players out of town or give up on young players early. I'm sick and tired of the Reds crap.

Yeah...I was a Reds fan for the first 20 years of my life. My whole family loved the Reds (they still do), and I grew up going to Riverfront every chance I had. I just got tired of the excuses that management always made, and then they couldn't understand why fans stayed away. Cincinnati is a great baseball city, but the Reds are really good at disapointing their fans. I moved to St. Louis about 15 years ago, and I thought I would always be a Reds fan. Well, after seeing how the Cardinals treat their fans, it really made me look at things a different way. St. Louis and Cincinnati are so similar, but yet the organizations treat their fans totally different. The Cardinals management always tries to put a good team out on the field even if it does cost them a lot. The fans repay them by selling out the stadium again and again.

IMO, Reds fans and Cardinal fans may be two of the most similar types of fans in all of baseball. If the Reds would just spend some cash (wisely) to put a competetive team on the field, then the fans would come out to the ballpark. I can't blame fans for staying away after being disapointed time after time. At first I felt guilty for switching teams. It was like I was turning my back on a relative, but I don't anymore. I hear people say that they are loyal to their team, and will always be a fan of a certain team. I agree... to a point. Loyalty is great. I am a die hard Cardinals fan now, and probably will be forever. I tried giving the Reds another chance a few years ago when I moved back to Ohio. It didn't work though, I ended up buying Extra Innings from Direct TV so that I could watch the Cardinals. It just seems like loyalty usually goes one way, at least in Cincinnati. The fans are expected to follow the Reds no matter what. They can be disapointed year after year, but if they dare stay home and not go to the games, ownership blames the fans for why they can't spend money. I just got tired of that attitude. I want my team to be as loyal to me as I am to them. The Reds used to have a higher payroll than the Cardinals did. The Cardinals ownership invested a lot of money in the team to make the team better, and the attendance sky rocketted. I believe the same thing would happen in Cincinnati if ownership showed that they know what they are doing and they really tried.

Stormy

07-31-2009, 09:31 PM

About five years to be exact.

http://z.about.com/d/baseball/1/0/-/B/-/-/barrylarkin.jpg

Man does this organization miss a guy like Barry. At this stage in his career, I don't expect much from Rolen in that regard though. You know it's curious: Toronto has been very public about it's dangling of Rolen for a month, and yet not a single actual contender even nibbles apparently. Meanwhile, a team light years removed from contention swoops in and pays the premium price moments before the deadline, even though they should have been the team with all the leverage. Puzzling.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 09:33 PM

OBM's getting converted!

Lol.

Have fun with the Cardinals, brah!
:p:

I love the Reds. Go Reds.

MattyHo4Life

07-31-2009, 09:33 PM

One thing for sure is Scott Rolen eats, drinks and craps baseball. It's been awhile since the Reds had a guy like that.

One thing is for sure... it will be wierd when the Reds come to St. Louis and Rolen is wearing a Reds uni.

wheels

07-31-2009, 09:33 PM

Yeah...I was a Reds fan for the first 20 years of my life. My whole family loved the Reds (they still do), and I grew up going to Riverfront every chance I had. I just got tired of the excuses that management always made, and then they couldn't understand why fans stayed away. Cincinnati is a great baseball city, but the Reds are really good at disapointing their fans. I moved to St. Louis about 15 years ago, and I thought I would always be a Reds fan. Well, after seeing how the Cardinals treat their fans, it really made me look at things a different way. St. Louis and Cincinnati are so similar, but yet the organizations treat their fans totally different. The Cardinals management always tries to put a good team out on the field even if it does cost them a lot. The fans repay them by selling out the stadium again and again.

IMO, Reds fans and Cardinal fans may be two of the most similar types of fans in all of baseball. If the Reds would just spend some cash (wisely) to put a competetive team on the field, then the fans would come out to the ballpark. I can't blame fans for staying away after being disapointed time after time. At first I felt guilty for switching teams. It was like I was turning my back on a relative, but I don't anymore. I hear people say that they are loyal to their team, and will always be a fan of a certain team. I agree... to a point. Loyalty is great. I am a die hard Cardinals fan now, and probably will be forever. I tried giving the Reds another chance a few years ago when I moved back to Ohio. It didn't work though, I ended up buying Extra Innings from Direct TV so that I could watch the Cardinals. It just seems like loyalty usually goes one way, at least in Cincinnati. The fans are expected to follow the Reds no matter what. They can be disapointed year after year, but if they dare stay home and not go to the games, ownership blames the fans for why they can't spend money. I just got tired of that attitude. I want my team to be as loyal to me as I am to them. The Reds used to have a higher payroll than the Cardinals did. The Cardinals ownership invested a lot of money in the team to make the team better, and the attendance sky rocketted. I believe the same thing would happen in Cincinnati if ownership showed that they know what they are doing and they really tried.

Wow.

A simple, great summation.

Can any of us find fault with this?

Why didn't Casetellini and Jocketty bring the lessons learned from their respective stints in St. Louis to Cincinnati?

smith288

07-31-2009, 09:37 PM

I LOVED this trade. Why? Because it gives me something to read during Reds losses.

westofyou

07-31-2009, 09:46 PM

Yeah...I was a Reds fan for the first 20 years of my life. My whole family loved the Reds (they still do), and I grew up going to Riverfront every chance I had. I just got tired of the excuses that management always made, and then they couldn't understand why fans stayed away. Cincinnati is a great baseball city, but the Reds are really good at disapointing their fans. I moved to St. Louis about 15 years ago, and I thought I would always be a Reds fan. Well, after seeing how the Cardinals treat their fans, it really made me look at things a different way. St. Louis and Cincinnati are so similar, but yet the organizations treat their fans totally different. The Cardinals management always tries to put a good team out on the field even if it does cost them a lot. The fans repay them by selling out the stadium again and again.

IMO, Reds fans and Cardinal fans may be two of the most similar types of fans in all of baseball. If the Reds would just spend some cash (wisely) to put a competetive team on the field, then the fans would come out to the ballpark. I can't blame fans for staying away after being disapointed time after time. At first I felt guilty for switching teams. It was like I was turning my back on a relative, but I don't anymore. I hear people say that they are loyal to their team, and will always be a fan of a certain team. I agree... to a point. Loyalty is great. I am a die hard Cardinals fan now, and probably will be forever. I tried giving the Reds another chance a few years ago when I moved back to Ohio. It didn't work though, I ended up buying Extra Innings from Direct TV so that I could watch the Cardinals. It just seems like loyalty usually goes one way, at least in Cincinnati. The fans are expected to follow the Reds no matter what. They can be disapointed year after year, but if they dare stay home and not go to the games, ownership blames the fans for why they can't spend money. I just got tired of that attitude. I want my team to be as loyal to me as I am to them. The Reds used to have a higher payroll than the Cardinals did. The Cardinals ownership invested a lot of money in the team to make the team better, and the attendance sky rocketted. I believe the same thing would happen in Cincinnati if ownership showed that they know what they are doing and they really tried.

I moved west 27 years ago, I still have a reds sticker on my car (the only sticker at all) I had 19 years of Giants and A's in my face, I live in M's country now, my first real love was the Tigers in the early 70's.

Not once did I think about how the owners treated the fans in that time, I'm not a baseball consumer I'm a baseball fan.

Everything else falls behind that.

M2

07-31-2009, 09:46 PM

Man does this organization miss a guy like Barry. At this stage in his career, I don't expect much from Rolen in that regard though. You know it's curious: Toronto has been very public about it's dangling of Rolen for a month, and yet not a single actual contender even nibbles apparently. Meanwhile, a team light years removed from contention swoops in and pays the premium price moments before the deadline, even though they should have been the team with all the leverage. Puzzling.

I agree, though there weren't a lot of contenders shopping for 3Bs. The Phillies and Giants are the two teams that could have used him most. Frankly, what goes on inside Brian Sabean's head is a mystery.

westofyou

07-31-2009, 09:49 PM

Frankly, what goes on inside Brian Sabean's head is a mystery.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGdlJWfx1GA

Patrick Bateman

07-31-2009, 09:54 PM

Not once did I think about how the owners treated the fans in that time, I'm not a baseball consumer I'm a baseball fan.

Me too. I'm too big of a Reds fan that I could just switch teams and pretend that I could feel the same emotion for a team like the Cards as I could for the Reds.. For that, the Reds are deeply ingrained in me.

And I know the same thing is true for OBM. OBM, you take everything the Reds do to heart, I don't know you personally, but Im about 100% sure that you could never care about the Cards or any other team half as much as you care about the Reds.

I can tell you, that someday, whenever that is, that the Reds actually do contend, it will mean so much more after having put up with so much crap over the years. I think after a while, and I could be wrong here, fans of the Yanks and Sox marginalize winning, as it's just too common. With the Reds we'll have gone through so much bad baseball, that winning will mean so much more. Latching on to an already good team is too easy, and haven't gone through the crap that makes winning such a good feeling.

It's the same thing as me being a Blackhawk fan. I have watched nothing but bad hockey since becoming a fan, and for the longest time, had the worst ownership in all of sports. I tell you, this last season was so much more enjoyable then I could have ever imagined. Winning was such a rarity in the past that I felt spoiled watching such a good team. I just know it wouldn't have felt the same as a Redwings fan or whatever, that has seen it all before, and hasn't had to endure such a pathetic franchise.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 10:00 PM

There are good trades than end up looking bad through the lens of time because of things like injury. There are bad trades that end up looking good because of luck.

Trades can be and should be judged when they are made by rationale and how it helps its team toward the goal of contending. This deal has only one rationale for the Reds, give the front office a reason to tell the average fan we still got a chance this year.

By any measure of helping toward the future it fails on many levels. Even if it succeeds beyong the RO's wildest dreams, it's still a stupid trade.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 10:02 PM

By any measure of helping toward the future it fails on many levels. Even if it succeeds beyong the RO's wildest dreams, it's still a stupid trade.

This is truly one of the wonkiest things I've ever read. Talent is better than deficiency. In winning seasons and losing ones.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 10:04 PM

As frustrated and po'd as this deal makes me, I could never switch teams. I might rant, I might watch fewer games, but if I ever decided to give up on the Reds all together, I'd just give up on MLB.

SMcGavin

07-31-2009, 10:08 PM

Love when I come home from golfing to a 44 page thread generated in five hours.

Initial thoughts without reading the entire thread:
1. The 2009 Reds are better now. The 2010 Reds might be better, depending on if Rolen's contract prevents other guys from being signed. The 2011-2014 Reds are probably worse.
2. With the new emphasis on defense, you knew EE was not going to be the long-term guy at 3B.
3. Zach Stewart is a good but not great prospect, he's the type of guy you have to be willing to part with to add the missing piece. If the time was right I could live with this sort of deal. Since the 2009 Reds aren't going anywhere, I don't think this is that time.

My question is, what has to happen for this to be a good trade? The 2010 Reds have to contend with Rolen playing a key role, right?

I don't like it. Rolen's a good player and the Reds are better now that they have him, but if he's the difference between 76 and 78 wins who cares? His acquisition needs to be followed with others for 2010... and since available payroll just went down I'm not sure that is going to happen. If Jocketty wants to go this route he sends out Alonso or Frazier for a legit SS in the offseason - not saying I would necessarily go that route, but if he did that at least you couldn't accuse him of not having a plan.

Kc61

07-31-2009, 10:09 PM

Based on reading the blogs, the Jays are sending money over with Rolen. Important factor in the exchange.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 10:14 PM

the MLB Home Plate guys thought this was the worst(the Reds side) of the deadline deals(those over the last several days).

westofyou

07-31-2009, 10:17 PM

Based on reading the blogs, the Jays are sending money over with Rolen. Important factor in the exchange.

They'll need it to send with Bronson.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 10:21 PM

the MLB Home Plate guys thought this was the worst(the Reds side) of the deadline deals(those over the last several days).

The cult of the minor leaguers is ascendant in baseball right now. Whoever gets the most minor leaguers wins the kewpie. That's as far as they look at it.

UKFlounder

07-31-2009, 10:22 PM

They're supposedly paying Rolen's salary for this year, which helps, but there's still $11 million owed him next year.

I guess that getting a good, but past-his-prime player for no salary for 2 months is not necessarily bad, but does he make a difference? Do the Reds now win 77 games instead of 73 (just making up numbers)? Does that matter?

And will he make any difference over the full season next year?

I just don't know yet. They are a potentially better team with him, but is that potential difference enough to make them contenders? I don't think so.

My initial reaction to this is not positive,but maybe time will prove me wrong, especially if they actually follow this up with more moves to make next year's team stronger.

Will 2010 be a "now or never" year for the Reds?

Based on reading the blogs, the Jays are sending money over with Rolen. Important factor in the exchange.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 10:24 PM

This is truly one of the wonkiest things I've ever read. Talent is better than deficiency. In winning seasons and losing ones.

Maybe, if it were about talent alone, but it's not. It's about winning and contending and how deals help you reash those goals. This deal sets back those goals, considerably, IMO

What's really wonky is acting like prospects have little if any value and you should just deal them enmasse regardless of their possible future value just to obtain and aging star for a meaningless year of service.

Dealing prospects - even top prospects is fine, but value that fits your situation.

The Reds today dealt a top 10 talent, one of their best arms (in a system with all too few arms), a kid that throws ground balls in a stadiumm that screams ground balls and an arm that could have helped this team in the next couple of years (either in the pen rotation) like he was a AA utility INF throw in.

When you look at the way other teams are valuing their young players and what they'e receiving for them in return - yeah, that alone makes it one very stupid trade. There's your wonk.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 10:26 PM

The cult of the minor leaguers is ascendant in baseball right now. Whoever gets the most minor leaguers wins the kewpie. That's as far as they look at it.
getting an expensive 35 year old third basemen with a bad back and shoulder seems like second prize in a contest where first prize is the clap.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 10:29 PM

getting an expensive 35 year old third basemen with a bad back and shoulder seems like second prize in a contest where first prize is the clap.

Getting rid of an expensive hitter who can't hit or field is worth it by itself.

Without question, the Reds get better offensively and defensively. They still need pitching, lots of it. But they need an impact bat and glove almost as much. Fix what you can when you can.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 10:32 PM

Getting rid of an expensive hitter who can't hit or field is worth it by itself.
I would not be surprised one bit if EE has a higher OPS and plays more games in 2010 than Rolen.

Odds are the Reds get the 07/08 version of Rolen(or less), not the 2009 fluke season.

Reds have sold low and bought high on this one.

pedro

07-31-2009, 10:33 PM

Funny, you'd have thought the Reds just traded the gold glove caliber third baseman who is currently hitting .320.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 10:36 PM

Funny, you'd have thought the Reds just traded the gold glove caliber third baseman who is currently hitting .320.which he will certainly repeat next season ... they must be crazy:eek:

SMcGavin

07-31-2009, 10:37 PM

I would not be surprised one bit if EE has a higher OPS and plays more games in 2010 than Rolen.

Odds are the Reds get the 07/08 version of Rolen(or less), not the 2009 fluke season.

Reds have sold low and bought high on this one.

Three year average is a pretty good barometer I think, Rolen's 07-09 is this:

.280/.349/.433/.782

That's solid considering the guy can defend too. For me the issue isn't the quality of the player they got. The problem is the timing of the deal.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 10:38 PM

I would not be surprised one bit if EE has a higher OPS and plays more games in 2010 than Rolen.

Odds are the Reds get the 07/08 version of Rolen(or less), not the 2009 fluke season.

Reds have sold low and bought high on this one.

Trouble is, EE doesn't get to face NL Central pitching anymore. I'd say it's likely EE DHes and OPSes around .700 next season. He's got bottom of the order bat handling skills and he's not a great bet to start taking lots of walks. He's the quintessential tweener hitter. Boring as kool aid without the sugar.

westofyou

07-31-2009, 10:42 PM

One thing for sure Scott Rolen's locker will be close to Jay Bruce's locker.

SMcGavin

07-31-2009, 10:43 PM

One thing for sure Scott Rolen's locker will be close to Jay Bruce's locker.

You're probably right but Bruce doesn't strike me as the type of guy who needs it.

guttle11

07-31-2009, 10:43 PM

I expect Rolen's numbers to be pretty good. Mediocre NL pitching plus half his games in GABP should equal better numbers. If he stays healthy I don't see why he can't approach his career averages in everything but HRs. And I think he can hit 20HRs in this park.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 10:44 PM

Trouble is, EE doesn't get to face NL Central pitching anymore. I'd say it's likely EE DHes and OPSes around .700 next season. He's got bottom of the order bat handling skills and he's not a great bet to start taking lots of walks. He's the quintessential tweener hitter. Boring as kool aid without the sugar.
this isn't about EE, its about a 1 year rental of a 35 year old with a bad injury history who is having a likely last hurrah year.

Like the guys on Home Plate said, you could easily make an argument for this deal if it put a team over the top or even close to it. But the Reds are nowhere near that, instead there are huge holes to fill. Maybe prospects are overvalued, if so, they frittered a few away for minimal impact.

it would be interesting to see what PECOTA thinks of Rolen and EE for 2010.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 10:44 PM

You're probably right but Bruce doesn't strike me as the type of guy who needs it.

I think Jay Bruce needs *all* kinds of help.

Always Red

07-31-2009, 10:45 PM

Trouble is, EE doesn't get to face NL Central pitching anymore. I'd say it's likely EE DHes and OPSes around .700 next season. He's got bottom of the order bat handling skills and he's not a great bet to start taking lots of walks. He's the quintessential tweener hitter. Boring as kool aid without the sugar.

Now that EE's Red's career has ended (for this tour, at least), he reminds me a lot of... (without looking at BR) Gary Redus.

I though Redus was going to be the next big thing when he came up.

Of course they played different positions, but Redus also had tons of "potential" that he never did reach (or was his "potential" over-rated and he did just fine??).

EE should hope to wind up with the career that Redus did- Gary played until he was 37 years old.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 10:47 PM

I expect Rolen's numbers to be pretty good. Mediocre NL pitching plus half his games in GABP should equal better numbers. If he stays healthy I don't see why he can't approach his career averages in everything but HRs. And I think he can hit 20HRs in this park.Sky Dome is a nice offensive park

Is it possible for Rolen to do what you expect? Sure but that is wrong question which is the one the Reds keep asking.

What the Reds need to ask is "Is it probable"?

Asking "is it possible?" is how you end up with a guy like Willy T.

M2

07-31-2009, 10:47 PM

Trouble is, EE doesn't get to face NL Central pitching anymore. I'd say it's likely EE DHes and OPSes around .700 next season. He's got bottom of the order bat handling skills and he's not a great bet to start taking lots of walks. He's the quintessential tweener hitter. Boring as kool aid without the sugar.

And he seems to have caught whatever bug it is that infected Willie Greene and Austin Kearns. Encarnacion's not the player he was when he came into the majors at age 22.

SMcGavin

07-31-2009, 10:47 PM

I think Jay Bruce needs *all* kinds of help.

Jay Bruce needs MLB at-bats and to not be 22 years old. Not leadership and professionalism training.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 10:48 PM

this isn't about EE, its about a 1 year rental of a 35 year old with a bad injury history who is having a likely last hurrah year.

Like the guys on Home Plate said, you could easily make an argument for this deal if it put a team over the top or even close to it. But the Reds are nowhere near that, instead there are huge holes to fill. Maybe prospects are overvalued, if so, they frittered a few away for minimal impact.

it would be interesting to see what PECOTA thinks of Rolen and EE for 2010.

I don't think was a "final piece" move. I think the 2010 Reds will look a lot different than this years team. Just my opinion.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 10:49 PM

Jay Bruce needs MLB at-bats and to not be 22 years old. Not leadership and professionalism training.

I was thinking pitch recognition tips. But your mileage may vary.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 10:50 PM

And he seems to have caught whatever bug it is that infected Willie Greene and Austin Kearns. Encarnacion's not the player he was when he came into the majors at age 22.
Not about EE, the guy in the deal that bothers me is Stewart.

And IMO the 2010 version of Rolen has about a 90 percent chance of being less productive than the 2009 one.

In addition even if it works out well Rolen might be a 2 win addition. Walt has to find another 15.

Always Red

07-31-2009, 10:50 PM

One thing for sure Scott Rolen's locker will be close to Jay Bruce's locker.

You're probably right but Bruce doesn't strike me as the type of guy who needs it.

IMO, Jay (and some of the other younger guys) can benefit from the professional approach and discipline of Rolen.

No words need be spoken. These guys are smart enough to watch and learn.

Jay Bruce just needs a touch of patience at the plate; that's all.

SMcGavin

07-31-2009, 10:51 PM

I was thinking pitch recognition tips. But your mileage may vary.

Nothing wrong with teaching (in any field) but it's not nearly as useful as actual experience.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 10:52 PM

I don't think was a "final piece" move. I think the 2010 Reds will look a lot different than this years team. Just my opinion.I would hope so. Hard to imagine that this deal would not have been available in the off-season after the heavy lifting had been accomplished ... why not wait until then?

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 10:54 PM

Getting rid of an expensive hitter who can't hit or field is worth it by itself.

Without question, the Reds get better offensively and defensively. They still need pitching, lots of it. But they need an impact bat and glove almost as much. Fix what you can when you can.

What's the downside of waiting til the offseason?

- Two more months of EdE instead of Rolen? That gains us what? three-four more victories maybe. Doesn't get us into the playoffs, but it could cost us a draft slot or two.

- A couple of more months to shine up EdE and maybe even get a better deal for him? Yeah, there's just as a good a chance that he regresses, but no worse than the chance that Rolen's back gives out before the end of September.

- 6-8 more months to see if Stewart can be packaged with other of our "meaningless minor leagues" and bring in a young SS? Deal young guys if you want, but get maximuum return. There's no reason to believe that Stewart's value would not have increased with another year. A young SS would much more value than Rolen and there's no reason to believe that it would kill the the Rolen deal. In fact, there's even more reason to believe Stewart's inclusion was a panic move on WJ's part.

- Someone else would have swooped in and taken him out of our clutches? Sometimes if you think about a problem long enough, it just goes away. There's no reason though to believe that Jocketty was bidding against anyone but himself.

-

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 10:55 PM

Nothing wrong with teaching (in any field) but it's not nearly as useful as actual experience.

I actually don't think they're separable. Rolen's seen a ton of pitchers a ton of times--Dusty and Jacoby haven't so they're not going to be able convey pitch by pitch breakdowns for him. Sure, the only way he'll learn is experience, but having an encyclopedic knowledge of current active pitchers' repertoires is a pretty valuable thing.

pedro

07-31-2009, 10:56 PM

I would hope so. Hard to imagine that this deal would not have been available in the off-season after the heavy lifting had been accomplished ... why not wait until then?

I think they were looking for a culture change this year. This team needs some leadership IMO. I know a lot of folks think that's BS, but I don't.

M2

07-31-2009, 10:56 PM

I don't think was a "final piece" move. I think the 2010 Reds will look a lot different than this years team. Just my opinion.

I'd expect the Reds to do far less than is required. Yet they might play a more engaging brand of baseball despite that.

I'll tell you one thing. Scott Rolen at 3B would be my convincer to shift Brandon Phillips to SS.

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 10:57 PM

What's the downside of waiting til the offseason?

- Two more months of EdE instead of Rolen? That gains us what? three-four more victories maybe. Doesn't get us into the playoffs, but it could cost us a draft slot or two.

- A couple of more months to shine up EdE and maybe even get a better deal for him? Yeah, there's kust a good a chance that he regresses, but no worse than the chance that Rolen's back gives out before the end of September.

- 6-8 more months to see if Stewart can be packaged with other of our "meaningless minor leagues" and bring in a young SS? Deal young guys if you want, but get maximuum return. There's no reason to believe that Stewart's value would not have increased with another year. A young SS would much more value than Rolen and there's no reason to believe that it would kill the the Rolen deal. In fact, there's even more reason to believe Stewart's inclusion was a panic move on WJ's part.

- Someone else would have swooped in and taken him out of our clutches? Sometimes if you think about a problem long enough, it just goes away. There's no reason though to believe that Jocketty was bidding against anyone but himself.-

This just makes too much sense.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 10:59 PM

IMO, Jay (and some of the other younger guys) can benefit from the professional approach and discipline of Rolen.

No words need be spoken. These guys are smart enough to watch and learn.

Jay Bruce just needs a touch of patience at the plate; that's all.Red have been selling this subjective stuff for years ... that guys are somehow more valuable than what the objective data tells.

Interesting the Rolen wore out his welcome in both Philly and St. Louis.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 10:59 PM

I'd expect the Reds to do far less than is required. Yet they might play a more engaging brand of baseball despite that.

I think this is right. They have a mountain to climb, but I don't feel they've sacrificed anything much at all in order to gain a great hitter and defender who plays a position where the Reds have exactly no options right now. And that's better than peeing down my leg. It's talent, not bull, as you've said.

In the end, there's a good chance I'll think the price was too high. But as far as I was concerned, "new third baseman" was pretty high on the 2010 Reds to-do list, and today it's checked off. So we'll see where it goes from here.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 11:00 PM

I think they were looking for a culture change this year. This team needs some leadership IMO. I know a lot of folks think that's BS, but I don't.Rolen is a guy that wore out his welcome in Philly and St. Louis ... IMO that conflicts with the entire leadership thing. If he was a leader then why did LaRussa want him gone?

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 11:01 PM

Red have been selling this subjective stuff for years ... that guys are somehow more valuable than what the objective data tells.

Interesting the Rolen wore out his welcome in both Philly and St. Louis.

He didn't wear out his welcome in Philly. He was surrounded by imbeciles.

Stormy

07-31-2009, 11:01 PM

I don't think was a "final piece" move. I think the 2010 Reds will look a lot different than this years team. Just my opinion.

If you're right, and the Reds are altered for the better, then this trade for Rolen will be a good move. I guess my question is how do we get there? If we accept the narrative that the F.O.'s hands are tied by immovable contracts to players who are unlikely to improve, then how does the team change appreciably?

I'd like to like this move, as I wanted to trade EdE last season when his value was at an all-time high (Walt doesn't think proactively though, it's more wait until the bottom drops out maneuvering). How do we add the requisite talent, when we have so much locked up in guys who are no more affordable/coveted this off season than they are now? Rolen just ate a big chunk of whatever limited flexibility we may have had, and all the major holes remain on the roster.

westofyou

07-31-2009, 11:01 PM

IMO believing that the deal would still be there in the winter is akin to thinking, Hey, she's hot, but I'll hit up on her next week when my hair looks better.

flyer85

07-31-2009, 11:04 PM

If you're right, and the Reds are altered for the better, then this trade for Rolen will be a good move. I guess my question is how do we get there? If we accept the narrative that the F.O.'s are tied by immovable contracts to players who are unlikely to improve, then how does the team change appreciably? the heavy lifting has yet to be done. I have no confidence in this FO being able to identify what needs to be done much less pull it off.

Even if prospects are truly overvalued(likely) it doesn't excuse getting a lower return than everyone else did for their overvalued prospects.

Stormy

07-31-2009, 11:06 PM

IMO believing that the deal would still be there in the winter is akin to thinking, Hey, she's hot, but I'll hit up on her next week when my hair looks better.

:laugh:

flyer85

07-31-2009, 11:06 PM

IMO believing that the deal would still be there in the winter is akin to thinking, Hey, she's hot, but I'll hit up on her next week when my hair looks better.no rolen, then go out and sign Beltre in the off-season. I am sure $11M would go a long way in his case.

SMcGavin

07-31-2009, 11:07 PM

I actually don't think they're separable. Rolen's seen a ton of pitchers a ton of times--Dusty and Jacoby haven't so they're not going to be able convey pitch by pitch breakdowns for him. Sure, the only way he'll learn is experience, but having an encyclopedic knowledge of current active pitchers' repertoires is a pretty valuable thing.

Bruce is probably going to figure it out eventually, it's possible he won't, but in the end the outcome of his career is not going to be affected by having Scott Rolen as a teammate for a season.

nate

07-31-2009, 11:07 PM

I think they were looking for a culture change this year. This team needs some leadership IMO. I know a lot of folks think that's BS, but I don't.

I don't think it's BS. I just don't think leadership > talent. IOW, you can't make up for a lack of talent with leadership.

paulrichjr

07-31-2009, 11:10 PM

I was travelling all day so I didn't get to respond unless you call almost wrecking when I glanced at my Blackberry and saw the news. At 2:45 CST I kept thinking please don't trade Stewart or Alonso...Anyone else I can handle (minors).

It just seems to me that this deal could have been done at the end of the season for a heck of a lot less talent going to the Jays. Seriously though when was the last time a team that had absolutely no chance to win made a deal at the deadline that was so clearly the opposite of what they should have been doing....I have never seen a team trade young talent for an old guy at the trade deadline when they were clearly out of contention. (I do seem to remember a late trade by the Pirates to get Matt Morris - Great now we are trying the Pirates method of winning)

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 11:10 PM

Bruce is probably going to figure it out eventually, it's possible he won't, but in the end the outcome of his career is not going to be affected by having Scott Rolen as a teammate for a season.

The players that stick are almost universally studious. I realize it's unclear, but learning is part of developing as a hitter. It's not just reps.

I've seen some clueless hitters in my day, and frankly, Bruce (May-July 2009) is right there at the top. Maybe he can't help Bruce, but right now I'd be throwing the kitchen sink at the kid because it's not pretty.

Highlifeman21

07-31-2009, 11:14 PM

One thing for sure Scott Rolen's locker will be close to Jay Bruce's locker.

I wonder if Bruce's sophomore slump had anything to do with that Big Texan getting traded?

Maybe nothing to it at all, but I do see some coincidence.

Hopefully Bruce can learn plenty from Rolen.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 11:14 PM

IMO believing that the deal would still be there in the winter is akin to thinking, Hey, she's hot, but I'll hit up on her next week when my hair looks better.

In this case, somebody else swooping in and taking "her" to the prom could be seen as a good thing.

HokieRed

07-31-2009, 11:14 PM

But the heavy lifting got simpler. We're now down to one position where we have no credible possibility for next year: SS. In the outfield we have Bruce in right, one of Stubbs/Heisey/Dickerson in CF, and, at worst, a Gomes/Dickerson or Gomes/Dorn platoon or one involving Balentien, Heisey--or Frazier, either as part of a platoon or everyday. This until Alonso solves that problem by moving Votto to left. In the infield we have Votto, Phillips, and Rolen, with even the faint possibility of a move of Phillips to SS and Frazier to 2nd. At C, we've got Hanigan and there'll need to be a decision about Hernandez. If you put a good SS on this team, it's got a chance in 2010.

Tony Cloninger

07-31-2009, 11:16 PM

Baker has already said he will bat Rolen 5th.......how does that grab you. Can't even be bothered to move BP down or to the 2nd slot.

Who bat's 2nd now? It should be Hanigan but now it will be AG?

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 11:17 PM

I'd be looking for upgrades at all OF positions. Though I would try to keep Gomes.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 11:17 PM

Baker has already said he will bat Rolen 5th.......how does that grab you. Can't even be bothered to move BP down or to the 2nd slot.

Who bat's 2nd now? It should be Hanigan but now it will be AG?

To be blunt: who cares?

savafan

07-31-2009, 11:18 PM

Part of me feels the same way about this trade as I felt about the Billy Doran trade in 1990

KronoRed

07-31-2009, 11:18 PM

Hrmm this deal gets a big "big deal" from me, Rolen's power has evaporated and he's a Joe Randa at this point, all for 10 million bucks next year, IF he's healthy.

I'd like it better if we hadn't throw in more then EE.

Tony Cloninger

07-31-2009, 11:21 PM

Your bluntness has been duly noted...many times over. :thumbup:

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 11:22 PM

no rolen, then go out and sign Beltre in the off-season. I am sure $11M would go a long way in his case.

Sign Beltre or Figgens and I'm more ready to include Frazier in a deal - maybe he, Stewart and others for Yunel Escobar. Now, I am very hesitant to deal Frazier because I'm gonna need him if Rolen goes down. If Beltre or Figgens goes elsewhere you can still do the deal for Rolen. Youd have time to think instead of letting Riccardi push your backup against a deadline and panic you into overpaying.

alloverjr

07-31-2009, 11:23 PM

I'd be looking for upgrades at all OF positions. Though I would try to keep Gomes.

The OF as it's currently set is ugly, but Gomes would be nothing more than a bench bat. And you might as well reserve yourself to the fact that WT is in CF next year.

Highlifeman21

07-31-2009, 11:23 PM

I'd be looking for upgrades at all OF positions. Though I would try to keep Gomes.

Would you continue to platoon Gomes and Nix in LF?

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 11:25 PM

The OF as it's currently set is ugly, but Gomes would be nothing more than a bench bat. And you might as well reserve yourself to the fact that WT is in CF next year.

That's how I'd view Gomes. I imagine that WT will share time with one of the AAA guys.

savafan

07-31-2009, 11:25 PM

And you might as well reserve yourself to the fact that WT is in CF next year.

I wouldn't bet on it.

alloverjr

07-31-2009, 11:27 PM

I wouldn't bet on it.

I don't see Bob eating $4+ next year and I gotta believe if he's on the roster he plays.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 11:28 PM

Sign Beltre or Figgens and I'm more ready to include Frazier in a deal - maybe he, Stewart and others for Yunel Escobar. Now, I am very hesitant to deal Frazier because I'm gonna need him if Rolen goes down. If Beltre or Figgens goes elsewhere you can still do the deal for Rolen. Youd have time to think instead of letting Riccardi push your backup against a deadline and panic you into overpaying.

IMO, he didn't overpay. So you're arguing over the timing of the deal at that point. Beltre will require a long term commitment. So would Figgens.

The Reds dumped a guy without a position and a couple of question mark bullpen guys for some certainty at a decent rate for a limited commitment. It's not a world shifter, but it improves the MLB team, and that's what I as a fan ask for.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 11:28 PM

I don't see Bob eating $4+ next year and I gotta believe if he's on the roster he plays.

He ate so much of Krivsky's gristle I imagine he's still backed up.

CTA513

07-31-2009, 11:29 PM

IMO, he didn't overpay. So you're arguing over the timing of the deal at that point. Beltre will require a long term commitment. So would Figgens.

The Reds dumped a guy without a position and a couple of question mark bullpen guys for some certainty at a decent rate for a limited commitment. It's not a world shifter, but it improves the MLB team, and that's what I as a fan ask for.

Then why did they waste money on bringing him back?

alloverjr

07-31-2009, 11:30 PM

He ate so much of Krivsky's gristle I imagine he's still backed up.

And wasn't afraid to talk about it either.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 11:31 PM

The OF as it's currently set is ugly, but Gomes would be nothing more than a bench bat. And you might as well reserve yourself to the fact that WT is in CF next year.

WT will be paid $4M next year no matter what, so use him to the best of his meager ability - 25th man on the roster, pinch-runner, pinch-bunter and late-inning defensive replacement. Keep him until the trade deadline or until what ever point in the season that a DFA becomes palatable.

tripleaaaron

07-31-2009, 11:34 PM

I actually don't think they're separable. Rolen's seen a ton of pitchers a ton of times--Dusty and Jacoby haven't so they're not going to be able convey pitch by pitch breakdowns for him. Sure, the only way he'll learn is experience, but having an encyclopedic knowledge of current active pitchers' repertoires is a pretty valuable thing.

Doesn't the scouting and video department have that covered. Quit reaching here. It was a bad move to make in the middle of a season that is heading down the drain. We didn't take a step forward here, we took a step back. Rolen is almost guaranteed to have a drop in production and we are now just depleting our pitching options. What makes us think this move helps whatsoever. We now add a lot of money to the books in a player that will be a minimal (if even) upgrade over what we already had. We obviously had no takers for arroyo and harang so what next? We still need a LF, SS,a good SP or two if we wish to have serious playoff aspirations (and another CF or RF if we really want to look good). Should we get Arroyo or harang off the books we may be able to address one or two of the moves that are needed but that doesn't look all that likely. We are now stuck with much of the same as when we had Griffey and Dunn and Milton etc. Overpaid (not dunn in regards to performance, but fit) players who will impede our ability to truly fill the teams needs. I think - I am throwing in the towel. I'm not sure I can stomache much more of the idleness or lack of plan. We are always sitting in pergatory with no clear path. I am done with pergatory.

savafan

07-31-2009, 11:37 PM

I don't see Bob eating $4+ next year and I gotta believe if he's on the roster he plays.

I believe this team's braintrust is smarter than we on this board give them credit for. I have to believe that, because if they aren't...well, then what are any of us really living for?

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 11:37 PM

IMO, he didn't overpay. So you're arguing over the timing of the deal at that point. Beltre will require a long term commitment. So would Figgens.

The Reds dumped a guy without a position and a couple of question mark bullpen guys for some certainty at a decent rate for a limited commitment. It's not a world shifter, but it improves the MLB team, and that's what I as a fan ask for.

So now you are for them getting Rolen? What?

This is what you said yesterday in the other Rolen thread.

Heck, this is a monumental waste of time chasing Rolen. Even if they get him for free.

VR

07-31-2009, 11:39 PM

I appreciate EE's maturity and professionalism in pumping his fists and refusing to talk to reporter's after he left Dusty's office.

JHJ had some great things to say, thanking the organization.etc etc.

I've been chewing on this all afternoon, but I'm realizing how glad I am to have the EE millstone off this team.

FCB is correct, they made a move to improve the big league team, without sacrificing anything of certainty for now or the future. It's a stopgap....but a stopgap with a potential HOF'er that still plays ++ defense, consistent bat, and some great intangibles isn't the worst thing in the world. Could be a great transition until Cozart/ Frazier are ready.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 11:41 PM

IMO, he didn't overpay. So you're arguing over the timing of the deal at that point. Beltre will require a long term commitment. So would Figgens.

The Reds dumped a guy without a position and a couple of question mark bullpen guys for some certainty at a decent rate for a limited commitment. It's not a world shifter, but it improves the MLB team, and that's what I as a fan ask for.

I can understand that, but they were talking extending him at the presser today and that would reallt exacerbate the situation, IMO. I love Rolen and I'll be relishing everyone of his accomplishments in a Reds uniform. I'm working duing the game tomorrow, but I'm recording the next two games just because of Rolen. it's been more than a month since I've recorded a game.

My feelings about Scott Rolen, as a player don't factor in to my dislike for this deal. I just see this trade as the kind of deal that keeps this franchise where it is - mediocrity.

I see it as ill-conceived, ill-timed and not enough value received for value given when it comes to building a winner. I think Rolen for EdE would have been treading water, but including Roenicke and especially Stewart is a regression.

KronoRed

07-31-2009, 11:42 PM

I believe this team's braintrust is smarter than we on this board give them credit for. I have to believe that, because if they aren't...well, then what are any of us really living for?

Hopefully none of us are living for a professional sports team :help:

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 11:43 PM

I appreciate EE's maturity and professionalism in pumping his fists and refusing to talk to reporter's after he left Dusty's office.

JHJ had some great things to say, thanking the organization.etc etc.

I've been chewing on this all afternoon, but I'm realizing how glad I am to have the EE millstone off this team.

FCB is correct, they made a move to improve the big league team, without sacrificing anything of certainty for now or the future. It's a stopgap....but a stopgap with a potential HOF'er that still plays ++ defense, consistent bat, and some great intangibles isn't the worst thing in the world. Could be a great transition until Cozart/ Frazier are ready.

$11MM and a top prospect. That's a pretty expensive stopgap.

And if EE is so bad, then waive him.

I can't recall anyone being too upset when they signed EE to a two-year deal during the off-season.

All of a sudden, he's cancer. Strange. I wasn't a huge fan either, but I don't get the cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Stormy

07-31-2009, 11:43 PM

Then why did they waste money on bringing him back?

Walt is reactive, not proactive is the short answer. Don't use your foresight to sell high, instead wait in status quo mode until you're compelled to activity out of sheer necessity. For example, last year, you can bet that Toronto would have given Rolen+ for EdE, as opposed to the other way around.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 11:44 PM

So now you are for them getting Rolen? What?

This is what you said yesterday in the other Rolen thread.

It might be a waste of time in the sense that by itself it won't make a difference. But it beats watching EE. And at least he'll help with defense.

There's not really a contradiction there. More of a reflection of my angst at this pitching staff. It's truly a doozy--considering Bailey and Lehr are giving the Reds better starts at this point than the guys they're paying millions to.

It goes without saying: this team is full of holes. But taking EE away from it fills a hole by itself, and Rolen at least keeps it from leaking more (for one season anyway).

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 11:45 PM

Walt is reactive, not proactive is the short answer. Don't use your foresight to sell high, instead wait in status quo mode until you're compelled to activity out of sheer necessity. For example, last year, you can bet that Toronto would have given Rolen+ for EdE, as opposed to the other way around.

Exactly. The franchise just paid a steep price for Walt's lack of being proactive.

GM's have been fired for less.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 11:47 PM

$11MM and a top prospect. That's a pretty expensive stopgap.

And if EE is so bad, then waive him.

I can't recall anyone being too upset when they signed EE to a two-year deal during the off-season.

All of a sudden, he's cancer. Strange. I wasn't a huge fan either, but I don't get the cutting off your nose to spite your face.

I don't think EdE's a cancer, I think he's poor player. Can't say I was too moved one way or another by his resigning this winter. I've long been an advocate of moving him off 3rd. Trying him at 1st, left.

BuckeyeRedleg

07-31-2009, 11:48 PM

It might be a waste of time in the sense that by itself it won't make a difference. But it beats watching EE. And at least he'll help with defense.

There's not really a contradiction there. More of a reflection of my angst at this pitching staff. It's truly a doozy--considering Bailey and Lehr are giving the Reds better starts at this point than the guys they're paying millions to.

It goes without saying: this team is full of holes. But taking EE away from it fills a hole by itself, and Rolen at least keeps it from leaking more (for one season anyway).

This isn't about EE and Rolen as much as it's about how WJ got fleeced by Ricciardi.

Holes? Pitching? Well, WJ just gave away a couple pitchers that I would have loved to see pitching for the Reds in 2010.

What a waste.

savafan

07-31-2009, 11:49 PM

Hopefully none of us are living for a professional sports team :help:

It's called melodrama Krono:p:

jojo

07-31-2009, 11:49 PM

I would have preferred the Reds sign Beltre too...... He'd probably take at least a 3 year deal though and it seems like the Reds might be betting that they can solve third internally before then...

Also, they probably aren't going to raise payroll dramatically so if they can't unload Arroyo/Cordero etc, they probably aren't going to spend a ton in free agency.

Right now it's looking like they can only definitely shed roughly $15M (Weathers, Gonzo and the portion of RaH that the O's aren't footing). Another $1M will come off the books as obligations to Stanton, Ross and Castro evaporate. However, roughly $8M will be spent on raises to Lincoln, Taveras, Phillips, Arroyo, and Harang. Also, Rolen will make roughly $6M more than EE in 2010.

So based upon rough justice math, without shedding some contracts in August or via trades in the fall, the Reds will have $2M to spend in free agency before a payroll increase.

Rolen might have been a move that anticipated difficulty in shedding Arroyoesque contracts and thus an inability to buy upgrades.

The Reds have $31.5M committed to Cordero, Arroyo, Taveras, Rhodes, and Lincoln in 2010.

I think the one thing that the Rolen trade definitely signals is an end seeing Gonzo and RaH in Reds uniforms.

Falls City Beer

07-31-2009, 11:50 PM

This isn't about EE and Rolen as much as it's about how WJ got fleeced by Ricciardi.

Holes? Pitching? Well, WJ just gave away a couple pitchers that I would have loved to see pitching for the Reds in 2010.

What a waste.

Stewart's not pitching for any MLB team in 2010 (and making it out alive).

Neither kid sent up north helps with the true cancer on this team: the rotation.

Obviously, if nothing's done about it, none of what we're talking about now matters a bit. But that's a separate matter.

KoryMac5

07-31-2009, 11:51 PM

Seems like mostly positive reviews on the Blue Jay message board:

I love this trade. EE could very well be better then Rolen NEXT year. He might have been last season, defense considered. I could see Rolen limping his way through 100 games next season and his average dropping to his career norm and contuing not to hit for power.
But no, this trade wasn't even straight up. We got two very capable arms, and Stewart seems to have some potential.
On top of it all, we seemingly save about 5 million or so off next year's payroll. I think we fleeced the Reds in this one.

Such an eye opener. Rolen's great year has really made me forgotten what he's really like. It's was a GOOD trade by J.P. today.

"I think we fleeced the Reds in this one."
Agree with this statement totally. I didn't think Ricciardi had it in him. Rolen's value, during his tenure with the Jays, was at an all time high and they cash it in for 2 great young arms...

Some negative comments also in the mix:

I don't think this is a good day for Jays fans. Rolen is probably the best defensive 3B in the teams history. He is a clutch hitter. EE has a very poor defensive track record. I think Rolen is one of the Jays leaders. He plays the game with heart. He is an excellent baserunner. Who will be our cleanup hitter now? I am glad I got to see him play in person several times this year. Our defense will be much weaker from now on. Do we really need 2 more young pitchers? Perhaps our next GM will trade some of your pitchers for some bats. We need more offense for 2010.

Again this deal is great for them... as Juan francisco 3b , zack cozart, yonder alsono would have been a better deal for us then bullpen arms. As they fill to our needs more then pitching. this deal blows chunks!!!

Mostly positive views on the other end. Looks like Edwin is already penciled in at DH while Bautista moves back to 3rd base.

tripleaaaron

07-31-2009, 11:51 PM

I've been chewing on this all afternoon, but I'm realizing how glad I am to have the EE millstone off this team.

FCB is correct, they made a move to improve the big league team, without sacrificing anything of certainty for now or the future. It's a stopgap....but a stopgap with a potential HOF'er that still plays ++ defense, consistent bat, and some great intangibles isn't the worst thing in the world. Could be a great transition until Cozart/ Frazier are ready.

The problem is though that we never make the right moves at the right time. When we where in the race we sat on our hands even as we all foresaw the bottom falling out claiming to be hamstrung by the economy. Now we are no longer in the race and our great pitching staff is not looking so, including our big contract guys which we were not able to unload. What do we do, take on salary in a 3b who is nearly 35. How is that a good thing? We should be dumping salary and acquiring prospects (as they have become gold in this economy) and gearing up for the offseason continuing with the youth movements. This is a Yankee move not a out of contention low budget reds move.
As for EE pumping his fists, I would also if I got to leave this sorry franchise.

RFS62

07-31-2009, 11:53 PM

I appreciate EE's maturity and professionalism in pumping his fists and refusing to talk to reporter's after he left Dusty's office.

JHJ had some great things to say, thanking the organization.etc etc.

I've been chewing on this all afternoon, but I'm realizing how glad I am to have the EE millstone off this team.

FCB is correct, they made a move to improve the big league team, without sacrificing anything of certainty for now or the future. It's a stopgap....but a stopgap with a potential HOF'er that still plays ++ defense, consistent bat, and some great intangibles isn't the worst thing in the world. Could be a great transition until Cozart/ Frazier are ready.

Yeah, that bothered me too. EE can't wait to get out of Cincy.

Regardless of the prevailing opinion at RedsZone regarding veteran leadership, I think that Dusty and Walt buy in completely. I think they see that as a problem on this team.

Walt is big on defense, and can't seem to suffer EE's frequent mental errors and seeming lack of focus.

This team is in a death spiral. All the deficiencies have been exposed.

Rolen is a name the casual fan knows, and respects. He plays the Cincinnati Way.

As dismal as the past few weeks has been, we'll at least get to watch one of the premier thirdbasemen in baseball history. Yeah, he's old, and getting older.

I loved watching Buddy Bell when he was here. He was also past his prime, but one of the smoothest fielders I've ever seen.

I guess I'm not disappointed because I expected absolutely nothing.

VR

07-31-2009, 11:56 PM

Walt is reactive, not proactive is the short answer. Don't use your foresight to sell high, instead wait in status quo mode until you're compelled to activity out of sheer necessity. For example, last year, you can bet that Toronto would have given Rolen+ for EdE, as opposed to the other way around.

I think you are right Stormy....but we stil had the benefit of some optimism for EE, that this would be the year he turns the corner.

The Reds gave EE every chance to be a major league ballplayer, it just didn't work out. The finally cut bait....and I for one, am relieved he's finally been moved....he's a good poster boy for the Reds penchant of hanging on to players too long.

corkedbat

07-31-2009, 11:56 PM

Walt is reactive, not proactive is the short answer. Don't use your foresight to sell high, instead wait in status quo mode until you're compelled to activity out of sheer necessity. For example, last year, you can bet that Toronto would have given Rolen+ for EdE, as opposed to the other way around.

That's what wears on me. As a fan I just want a front office with a plan and a purpose - to at least give a chance to contend and the savvy to know how that can best be done.

I know that any chance to contend is not that great for a team like the Reds anymore - it's not easy - I understand. That's why it makes me so mad when I see a reactionary panic move like Jocketty did today. At the least he got fleeced out of a pitcher that could have value for the major league club or in another deal. I truly believe that most good GMs would not have made the deal or at least could have done it without a price as high as Stewart.

Ltlabner

07-31-2009, 11:58 PM

You're batting .1000, or 1.000?

Hey, I was in a rush to post because the game was getting ready to start and I didn't want to be "that guy" at the ballpark with his head glued to his blackberry!

gonelong

08-01-2009, 12:02 AM

The Reds traded for a bona-fide Major Leaguer that I know I will enjoy watching in the field and at the bat. It almost feels like they are trying.

I don't particularly care for the package they sent to get him or the stage of his career that he is in, but beggars can't be choosers.

GL

LoganBuck

08-01-2009, 12:02 AM

As someone who has actually seen Zach Stewart pitch in person, you can't help but cringe at seeing him included in this type of deal. For those of you that question his talent, he is at least a taller healthy Scott Williamson right now. And yet he has room for growth.

My initial reaction was a stream of obscenity.

EE and Roenicke + Chaff for Rolen and Cash OK
EE, Roenicke, and Stewart for Rolen and Cash, they had better sign Aroldis Chapman.

Ltlabner

08-01-2009, 12:04 AM

I was actually just thinking the same thing. People can make jokes about leadership and I know that many want to compare it to talent. But when you look at this team and realize that the closest thing that some of these guys have to a vet leader is the dumbest manager in the game, it is a scary thought.

I'm just coming back into the thread so I hope I'm not repeating anything, but I wonder how BPhil is going to like having "leadership" on the team? Not that I much care, but since he considers himself the defacto-leader I wonder if it will lead to friction.

corkedbat

08-01-2009, 12:06 AM

As someone who has actually seen Zach Stewart pitch in person, you can't help but cringe at seeing him included in this type of deal. For those of you that question his talent, he is at least a taller healthy Scott Williamson right now. And yet he has room for growth.

My initial reaction was a stream of obscenity.

EE and Roenicke + Chaff for Rolen and Cash OK
EE, Roenicke, and Stewart for Rolen and Cash, they had better sign Aroldis Chapman.

Sorry, Scott Rolen got his money. :evil:

NDRed

08-01-2009, 12:09 AM

Reading this thread you would think that Rolen will need a wheelchair to get from the dugout to third base.

In reality, since being full time in 1997, Rolen has only played less than 100 games in one season- 2005. He played 142 games in 2006, 112 in 2007, 115 in 2008, and will probably play in about 130 games in 2009. And that is the worst stretch in his career.

He is a 6 time All Star, 7 time Gold Glove, and as for his "declining power" he actually has better power numbers this year than 2007 and 2008.

By the way, Buddy Bell was 33 when the Reds got him and he had 3 1/2 pretty decent years here.

HokieRed

08-01-2009, 12:09 AM

About 90% of the criticism on this board amounts to faulting Walt for being unable to walk on water or doing its baseball equivalent: trading 4 and 5 starters with ridiculous contracts like Harang and Arroyo for top quality prospects at exactly the spots we need and getting the other teams to take on all their salaries in addition. If he hasn't done this, the claim is he's not proactive. The Rolen trade is a real deal, the kind that actually gets made, where both sides take calculated risks for returns they think make sense for them. We get one of the top 20 third basemen who's ever played; they get a replacement they need to sell to their fans and two decent prospects. Seems an even, realistic deal to me. I see no evidence in it that Walt's not proactive or that there is no plan or anything to support any of the other high-level inferences here.

Raisor

08-01-2009, 12:12 AM

Reds can't get by with a league average LF. They have that now. They need a big bat there. .