Hanson preferences could give PM absolute control of Senate

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John Howard is on the brink of outright control of the Senate -
depending on how people who voted for Pauline Hanson directed their
preferences.

The result will be known around 11am today, when the Australian
Electoral Commission's computer distributes preferences for the
Senate seat which remains in doubt.

After leading the race for the remaining Queensland Senate spot,
the Nationals candidate Barnaby Joyce now trails the Greens by 1400
votes and his fate hinges on how "below the line" voters directed
their preferences.

The Coalition has 38 Senate seats but needs one more to have an
absolute majority.

If Mr Joyce fails to secure the last Queensland Senate spot,
Family First's newly elected Victorian Senator Steve Fielding will
have the balance of power.

There were 117,000 people who voted below the line in
Queensland. ABC election analyst Antony Green estimates the
preferences of 90,000 of these below the line votes are not tied to
party tickets.

Mr Green said the last Senate seat would be decided by how
people who voted for Pauline Hanson directed their preferences.
Thirty-eight thousand voters put Ms Hanson first below the line,
the highest below the line vote for any candidate, according to Mr
Green.

Forty-five thousand votes must flow to One Nation to knock the
Nationals out of the race. But the Nationals need just 8000 votes
for Mr Joyce to be elected.

Mr Green expects the Nationals to triumph. "On the balance of
probabilities, the Nationals have a better chance," he said.

Mr Joyce is also quietly confident. "I'd be more inclined to put
money on me than against me - but when you bet you can always
lose," he said.