Monday, March 19, 2012

What's really behind those new anti-Rae ads?

The Conservative Party is targeting Interim Liberal leader Bob Rae with an attack ad.

This probably strikes a lot of people as odd. After all, on the surface going negative against the leader of a third place party, three years before an election, makes zero strategic sense. So at best the Tory strategy seem like a waste of resources and at worst like mindless, nastiness.

But what if the anti-Rae ad really isn't about hurting Rae? What if it's really designed to hurt the NDP? Well, if that's the case then the Tory attack ad makes perfect sense. And indeed, I believe that is the case.

But. you might be asking, how could an ad going after a Liberal leader possibly harm the NDP?

It's simple. By attacking Rae from the right, as they do in this ad, the Tories are likely hoping left-leaning voters will rally around the embattled Liberal leader. The Conservatives, in other words, want leftists to react thusly: "Hey, if that right-wing, reactionary, robo-calling Prime Minister is so much against Rae, them I am for Rae!"

It's psychology 101.

Naturally, if this ploy works the net result will be to drive "progressive" voters away from the NDP and towards the Liberals. Hence, the anti-Rae ad is really about strengthening the weaker Liberals and weakening the stronger NDP.

And given that the NDP leadership race is coming up this weekend, what better time for the Conservatives to pull such a stunt?

4 comments:

The Liberals are going to lose in today's by-election. This helps reinforce that perception along with giving the Conservatives something to talk about when most of the news will be about the Liberals/NDP and the by-election.

I haven't had opportunity to see the ad yet and its too late in the evening to do so now but as for the strategy I think that attacking Rae serves to weaken both the Liberals an the NDP. It serves to remind Liberals that they are now led by an ex NDPer which remains a major burr in the blanket of many centrist liberals. It also shows that based on historical record an NDP government would likely be an economic disaster. The target market would thus be the centre/centre right Liberal who is most likely to vote Conservative given the present circumstance.

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Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant and writer who has been called a “political warrior” a “brilliant strategist” and one of the “canniest political observers in Canada.”
He has worked as a consultant in both the United States and Canada and was formerly a senior officer in the National Citizens Coalition.
A regular columnist with the Ottawa Hill Times, his work has also appeared in the Globe and Mail, the National Post and in the Sun Media chain; and he has appeared on countless TV and radio public affairs programs. He is the author of the book, Loyal to the Core, Harper, Me and the NCC.

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