Drilling Deeper Post Carbon Institute

reviews the twelve shale plays that account for 82% of the tight oil production and 88% of the

shale gas production in the U.S. Department of Energy’s

Energy Information Administration (EIA) referencecase forecasts through 2040. It utilizes all available production data for the plays analyzed, and assesseshistorical production, well- and field-decline rates, available drilling locations, and well-quality trends for eachplay, as well as counties within plays. Projections of future production rates are then made based on forecastdrilling rates (and, by implication, capital expenditures). Tight oil (shale oil) and shale gas production is foundto be unsustainable in the medium- and longer-term at the rates forecast by the EIA, which are extremelyoptimistic.This report finds that tight oil production from major plays will peak before 2020. Barring major newdiscoveries on the scale of the Bakken or Eagle Ford, production will be far below the

EIA’s forecast

by 2040.Tight oil production from the two top plays, the Bakken and Eagle Ford, will underperform the EIA

’s reference

case oil recovery by 28% from 2013 to 2040, and more of this production will be front-loaded than the EIAestimates. By 2040, production rates from the Bakken and Eagle Ford will be less than a tenth of thatprojected by the EIA. Tight oil production forecast by the EIA from plays other than the Bakken and Eagle Fordis in most cases highly optimistic and unlikely to be realized at the medium- and long-term rates projected.Shale gas production from the top seven plays will also likely peak before 2020. Barring major newdiscoveries on the scale of the Marcellus, production will be far below the

EIA’s forecast

by 2040. Shale gasproduction from the top seven plays will underperform the EIA

’s reference ca

se forecast by 39% from 2014to 2040, and more of this production will be front-loaded than the EIA estimates. By 2040, production ratesfrom these plays will be about one-third that of the EIA forecast. Production from shale gas plays other thanthe top seven will need to be four times that estimated by the EIA in order to meet its reference caseforecast.Over the short term, U.S. production of both shale gas and tight oil is projected to be robust

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but a thoroughreview of production data from the major plays indicates that this will not be sustainable in the long term.These findings have clear implications for medium and long term supply, and hence current domestic andforeign policy discussions, which generally assume decades of U.S. oil and gas abundance.