Record Cold in a Warming World

An impressive blast of Arctic air has toppled more records for all-time March cold over the Eastern U.S., in the wake of the major snowstorm that brought 4 - 8" of snow from Missouri to Maryland. Fresh snow is very efficient at radiating heat to space, and the 3.8" of snow that fell in Baltimore on Monday helped drive the temperature down to 5°F on Monday night, tying the city's all-time March low temperature record set on March 4, 1873. The temperature eventually dipped down to 4°F Tuesday morning, breaking the March record. Atlantic City, NJ, which got 5.5" of snow on Monday, also set a new all-time cold record for the month of March on Monday night, when the temperature fell to 2°F. The previous all-time low for the month of March was 3°F set on March 4, 2009. Official records for the Atlantic City area date back to 1874.

At least five other cities have set or tied all-time March cold temperature records during the current cold wave:

Charlottesville, Virginia set an all-time March low of 1°F Tuesday morning (previous record: 7°F on March 4, 1943.)

Billings, Montana set an all-time March low of -21° on March 2, 2014 (previous record: -19°.)

Pierre, South Dakota set an all-time March low on both March 1 and March 2, dipping to -20° (previous record: -19°F on March 11, 1998.)

Flint, Michigan set an all-time March low of -16° on March 3 (previous record: -12°.)

Rockford, Illinois tied its all-time March record low of -11° on March 3.

At least five U.S. cities have set records for their coldest winter on record, as detailed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest blog post. He has not yet compiled a list of cities that have set a record for their warmest winter on record during 2013 - 2014, but I know of at least two: Las Vegas, Nevada, and Tucson, Arizona.

Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC March 4, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures up to 36°F (20°C) below average. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath a ridge of high pressure over Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

How can a planet that is warming experience record cold?This week's impressive cold blast brings up the question: How can a planet undergoing "global warming" experience record cold? Well, it's a big planet, and the weather has naturally crazy extremes. We expect to see many locations experience all-time daily and monthly cold records each month. It's just that the number of these cold records will be outnumbered by all-time heat records, when averaged over the globe, and over decades. It is called Global Warming for good reason! A 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO found that in the U.S., the ratio of the number of record daily highs to lows was near 1:1 in the 1960s and 1970s, but had increased to more than 2:1 during the decade of the 2000s, due to our warming climate. The ratio for the 2010’s was approximately 2.4-to-1 for daily records, for the four years 2010 - 2013, as explained in detail at Guy Walton's wunderblog. If "business as usual" emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue this century, this ratio of record highs to record lows is expected to increase to 20:1 by the year 2050, and 50:1 by 2100. So, even on planet experiencing extreme global warming, we will still see a few record low temperatures in the 22nd Century.

Two Years Ago: Summer in MarchWhen we do break all-time heat records in the current warming climate, we should expect that some of these new records will crush the old records in phenomenal ways. That was the case during the astonishing U.S. record-breaking "Summer in March" heat wave just two years ago, in 2012. It was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S., 8.6°F above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. record began in 1895, only one month, January 2006, had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. Every state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature during March, and 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record. An additional 15 states had monthly temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. All-time March records were broken at 290 stations, with some stations breaking their all-time March record four times. There were 21 instances of the nighttime temperatures being as warm, or warmer, than the existing record daytime temperature for a given date. Four stations broke daily records by 30°F or more.

Figure 3. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77°F when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken on March 17, 2012 in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

I wasn't hyping a storm Ric. I just post the models like everybody else does. Anyways the severe potential in FL is really up in the air tomorrow as it all hinges on how strong the Gulf low gets or does the low form off the NE FL coast all of this will have significant impacts to our forecast tomorrow. So we will wait and see I guess. How do you like your new office?

the movers won't show up until Saturday......prep work all this week....a week from now all should be calm

Quoting 626. ARiot:local Baltimore mets showed an ensemble model that shows no real nor'easter out of the mess 'yall are tracking.

that tells me a few things:

- they know the viewers are tired of winter so they aren't hyping the off chance of stormy Mid-A weather

- the confidence is generally low for a storm

Of course, Florida people will need to watch out, but Florida people pretty-much always have an eye on the sky, eh?

No.You aren't paying attention.I said the 14th-15th time frame.When the models (Euro and GFS) show a storm coming from the south and giving us a major snow event.That's still 10 days away and things will change.

Proof from CWG this morning.7:12 AM ESTHour 216 on the Euro has a miller a with a very nice track. 9" for DC, 12: N and W. Too bad it in fantasy land, but isn't that in the 12th-14th time frame some have been raving about?

Quoting 618. ricderr:It's looking more and more that there will be a pretty good risk for severe weather across FL as both the Euro and GFS have really intensified the Gulf Low again. The Euro bring the low onshore near Cedar Key as 1004mb and the GFS has 1007mb. Whether the severe potential pans out or not both models show several inches of rain falling across C & N FL tomorrow and tomorrow night.

irony.....hyping a storm 9 days out....giving up on it 4 days out....and then it comes to fruition

have a good day scott

I wasn't hyping a storm Ric. I just post the models like everybody else does. Anyways the severe potential in FL is really up in the air tomorrow as it all hinges on how strong the Gulf low gets or does the low form off the NE FL coast all of this will have significant impacts to our forecast tomorrow. So we will wait and see I guess. How do you like your new office?

It's looking more and more that there will be a pretty good risk for severe weather across FL as both the Euro and GFS have really intensified the Gulf Low again. The Euro bring the low onshore near Cedar Key as 1004mb and the GFS has 1007mb. Whether the severe potential pans out or not both models show several inches of rain falling across C & N FL tomorrow and tomorrow night.

irony.....hyping a storm 9 days out....giving up on it 4 days out....and then it comes to fruition

It's looking more and more that there will be a pretty good risk for severe weather across FL as both the Euro and GFS have really intensified the Gulf Low again. The Euro bring the low onshore near Cedar Key as 1004mb and the GFS has 1007mb. Whether the severe potential pans out or not both models show several inches of rain falling across C & N FL tomorrow and tomorrow night.

yes indeed..they are waiting to see just how strong this low will get...

off topic but good.................a young girl was constantly asking her grandmother what it is like to die..after many days of this same question the grandmother had enough..she asked the girl.."do you remember when you were born"?....then you girl replied No....the grandmother told here..well thats exactly how it will be when you die..no memories

It's looking more and more that there will be a pretty good risk for severe weather across FL as both the Euro and GFS have really intensified the Gulf Low again. The Euro bring the low onshore near Cedar Key as 1004mb and the GFS has 1007mb. Whether the severe potential pans out or not both models show several inches of rain falling across C & N FL tomorrow and tomorrow night.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OFMEXICO LATER TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ONTHURSDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY ASTO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW WILL GET...AND HOW FAST IT WILL MOVEACROSS THE STATE. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ONHOW STRONG THE WIND FLOW OVER THE PENINSULA BECOMES THURSDAY...AND ALSO HOW STRONG THE STORMS WILL BECOME. THERE REMAINS THEPOTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

I'm not going to abandon my religion because it can't be scientifically "proven".Their are just some things humans will never know or understand.Have we really gotten that cocky?.Anyway I'm out.See ya.

Quoting 580. sar2401:...[Elon] Musk has repeatedly resisted suggestions that...[Tesla Motors]...create, in essence, an escrow fund to pay at least part of the environmental costs if the company goes belly up.

Apply that principle to the fossil fuel, chemical, and other industries, and I'll get behind it!

Quoting 538. GTstormChaserCaleb:Question: What created time, what created matter, what created space? We must ask ourselves these questions, and yet we will find ourselves in a loop hole asking what created the precursor of time, space, and matter, and so on and so on.

I can accept that there are things we don't understand. I ponder these questions, but don't feel compelled to accept something just because I cannot handle unknowns.

What I object to is people who claim to have explanations answers for these unknowns, but have no demonstrable evidence to support those explanations. And specially those people who just make stuff up.

OTOH, when we have extremely strong evidence for something, and people don't accept it - and even deny it or lie about it - that is even more strange to me. There are a number of rather vocal people here who profess to believe things with no evidence for support, yet loudly and vociferously deny things that are backed up with mountains of evidence - with no good evidence to back up their denial!

Quoting 480. gulfbreeze:You think a small bone at the base of the spinal column is all you need to prove evolution and where did we come from big bang?

No, the proof is everywhere. Evolution is merely the change in allele frequency over time. A very simple example is the Florida Beach Mouse that can be found on the north Florida coasts and southern Alabama. "the altered coloring in the beach mice evolved over time from the older, darker forest mice. The changes were caused by changes to the agouti protein, found in all vertebrates, which controls pigment-creating cells called melanocytes. The research showed that without agouti, these mice would be jet black." Link Without these changes over time, black mice would not survive on a white beach as they would be easy to spot by predators.

One of the larger misconceptions about evolution is the claim we came from monkeys. That is completely inaccurate. Evolution says we shared a common ancestor a very long time ago.

Good morning and afternoon, everyone. It's 34 degrees with 100% humidity, feels like 27. We're supposed to have a high of 52, so it'll be in the upper 40's. The worst of yesterday's weather stayed south of us, I10 was closed due to ice between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. There is a bridge there about 18 miles long. (Plus smaller ones of course)

tampa nws..........STORM PREDICTIONCENTER CLASSIFIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVEREWEATHER IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MENTIONING THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLYHIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUES AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD BEVARIABLES THAT COME INTO PLAY TO AID STRONG TO SEVERE STORMDEVELOPMENT. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 AT 00Z FRIDAYCOULD CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR A WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADO THREAT. THISIS A FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR FOR STRONG SQUALL LINES TO AFFECT WESTCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...FORECAST UPDATES SHOULD BE MONITOREDAS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES.

Tampa Nws......................DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERNGULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ANDNORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAYNIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE APOTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTAHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ATTHE PRESENT TIME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NATURECOAST TOWARD SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...WITH THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMSTHEN EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRALAND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEWSTRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.IN ADDITION COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHEREMAY SUPPORT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. INCREASING WINDSHEAR WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR ONE TO TWO TORNADOES OR MARINEWATERSPOUTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURSWILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME PONDING OF WATER ONROADWAYS.

Quoting 586. sar2401:Yes, I was also an athiest when I was young. As I approach nearer and nearer to the point where it all goes to black, I've found more faith in a higher power. You may (or may not) find the same when you get older. Regardless, I have my own faith because it suits me. I am certainly not in a position to judge anyone for their faith, and atheism is simply another form of faith.

Depends on the form of atheism. Weak atheism (what I hold) is more of a "I see no reason to believe so I don't", which isn't really the same thing as strong atheism (actively believing there is no god).

We don't know yet, I think some sort of divineness was at work. But I believe the evidence for the big bang is too overwhelming to ignore.

I support everything science has discovered, but the Big Bang, and many other modern scientific discoveries, to me don't reasonably give any reason for God not to exist. For my mind it does just the opposite.Science tells us how we got here, it tells us how a machine is built, and how it works, but it cannot tell us why, and it cannot help us understand the functions of existence which may be beyond our intellect, because we would otherwise have to have a higher intellect.

However, despite this, I understand people's doubt in the existence of God, I too have struggled with the concept before, and I would think that would be true for all humanity if you ask me,

As much as I'd like all people to share this belief with me, I can't force it, nor would I want to. Because if it was forced, it would defeat the joy of sharing in it in the first place.

I'm always welcome to discuss such matters of my belief in God with someone personal if someone is interested, I'm also welcome to hear other people's reason for believing or not believing in God. I don't always display it well, but my goal is to treat everyone with respect and love. If I do mistreat someone, I hope they would voice it so I can apologize.

Quoting KoritheMan:And before the inevitable million dollar question comes up, I am atheist. Have been for six years now, coincidentally just before Gustav.

I can respect anyone regardless of their religious affiliation or lack thereof, though, provided they reciprocate in kind to me.

Yes, I was also an athiest when I was young. As I approach nearer and nearer to the point where it all goes to black, I've found more faith in a higher power. You may (or may not) find the same when you get older. Regardless, I have my own faith because it suits me. I am certainly not in a position to judge anyone for their faith, and atheism is simply another form of faith.