Portland Trail Blazers at the San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio have hit a rough patch recently and have lost three
in a row, most recently a 111-104 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. Expect them to
stop the rot tonight and cover against the Blazers.

Season record (35-27-1 ATS for
57% ATS winners)

NBA free pick on the San
Antonio Spurs as they host the Portland trailblazers set to start at 8:00 PM
ET.

The San Antonio Spurs have lost three straight games since Tim Duncan went
down with a severely sprained left ankle and he is not expected to return
anytime soon. However, the Spurs are talented enough to reinvent themselves in
Duncan’s absence and it sometimes takes a few games to adjust to that new game
plan.

If there was ever a good time to have Duncan go down to a serious
injury it would be now as the Spurs have a four game lead over the Lakers in
the Western Conference with just nine games left to the regular season
schedule. They need only win four of the next nine games in combination with
the Lakers winning out and I don’t think either is a likely outcome.

Supporting System and
Simulator Projections

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a
high probability that San Antonio will win this game by four or more points.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-19
using the money line for 65% winners since 2005. Play against road teams using the money
line off a loss against a division rival facing an opponent off a road loss
against a division rival. Portland lost at Oklahoma City in their last game
99-90 installed as 4 12 point dogs. San Antonio is off a road loss to Memphis
111-104 and failed to cover as 1.5 point dogs on the NBA odds board.

Game
Situations Favoring the Spurs

The
simulator shows high probabilities that San Antonio will make between 47 and
51% of their shots, make 39 to 45% of their three point shot attempts, and
holed Portland to a total score of 93 to 98 points. IN past games where they
achieved these performance standards the Spurs are 27-14 ATS making 11.6 units
per one unit wagered when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game over
the last two seasons; 23-10 ATS making 12.0 units per one unit wagered when
they make 39% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last two
seasons; 14-5 ATS making 8.5 units per one unit wagered when they allow 93 to
98 points in a game this season.

Portland
relies on the perimeter game to score points and the Spurs have done very well
defending the perimeter and teams similar to the Portland Trailblazers in past games.
Note that the Spurs are a solid 25-11 ATS making 12.9 units facing teams who
make six or more three point shots per game this season.

Take
the Spurs to bounce back from their three game losing streak in a very big way
tonight.