Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Prior to the
start of each NFL season I assign each team a power rating which subsequently
is adjusted as we progress through the season based upon team performance in
the 20 metrics I track by team by game on both offense and defense.As we all know we can translate spreads on
games into estimated percentages each team has at winning a game – so I play
out the entire season based upon the power ratings I assign each team, add in
home field which leads to a “spread” on each game, which I then translate into
a % chance to win the game for each team.Based upon that exercise I am able to project where I see teams stacking
up in the standings – it is not as “calibrated” as I would like, meaning, it
really cannot be used to strictly take my figure and use it as an estimated
record for each team as it typically underrates the strong teams and overrates
the poor teams – the disparity from the best to the worst team was only 7.8
wins before the season, and we know typically that number will be more like
10/11 for any given season.But this
analysis can be used to estimate who has the best chances at making the
playoffs, which is what we will present below.

Here is the wins
matrix I have worked up:

After
Wk3

After
Wk2

Before
Season

B/(W)

ARI

6.62

7.18

7.27

(0.7)

ATL

8.30

8.88

9.58

(1.3)

BAL

11.27

9.80

10.00

1.3

BUF

8.56

7.91

5.83

2.7

CAR

5.06

4.61

4.02

1.0

CHI

7.48

8.10

7.96

(0.5)

CIN

6.37

7.16

5.89

0.5

CLE

7.39

7.08

7.11

0.3

DAL

8.72

8.19

8.35

0.4

DEN

6.77

7.04

7.04

(0.3)

DET

9.58

9.02

7.50

2.1

GB

12.63

12.18

11.50

1.1

HOU

9.44

9.43

8.65

0.8

IND

6.21

6.74

8.33

(2.1)

JAC

5.10

5.70

5.29

(0.2)

KC

5.69

5.70

7.22

(1.5)

MIA

5.52

5.89

7.35

(1.8)

MIN

5.64

6.10

7.56

(1.9)

NE

9.33

11.03

10.18

(0.8)

NO

11.21

10.96

11.03

0.2

NYG

8.40

7.66

7.87

0.5

NYJ

9.03

9.48

8.93

0.1

OAK

7.37

6.66

6.84

0.5

PHI

10.78

11.54

11.84

(1.1)

PIT

11.16

10.94

11.40

(0.2)

SD

9.61

10.25

10.48

(0.9)

SEA

5.44

4.93

5.57

(0.1)

SF

7.27

5.74

5.81

1.5

STL

5.58

6.90

7.65

(2.1)

TB

7.91

7.45

7.45

0.5

TEN

8.20

7.02

7.08

1.1

WAS

8.39

8.74

7.45

0.9

Explanation
by column:

·After
Wk3: the most up-to-date column in this analysis.This shows where I currently project each
team to finish based on wins.These new
win totals were derived from two changing variables when compared to before
season – first, I use my updated power ratings thru 3 games: so far I have
moved 20 teams one spot based upon their performance thru those 3 games – no
teams have moved 2+ spots, and I keep the balance throughout the power ratings
meaning those 20 teams are broken into 10 teams up, 10 teams down; two, I have
updated the first 3 weeks for actual wins and losses, which will have the
biggest impact on the analysis.To be clearer,
let’s say just for example I had projected the Denver Broncos as a ATS “Pick-em”
in each of their first 3 games – that essentially gives them, and their
opponents a 50% chance of winning each of those games – which, in other words,
means I had estimated their win total for first 3wks as 1.5 (3 games x 50%
chance in each)…and since they wound up going 1-2, they would have lost 0.5
wins based on actual results.

·After
Wk2: same points I made above, just using data through 2wks instead of 3.

·Before
season: again the same points as above, but no wins/losses were adjusted for
games played obviously, it was all based on my preseason power ratings.

·B/(W)
shows the teams that have made the biggest jump in projected wins since before
the season.

This
analysis is relevant in many ways, not least of which is it takes into
consideration a team’s schedule for the remaining part of their season, and
includes updated power ratings which are much more solid then what I had before
the season.Being able to digest 3 games
worth of data and make the necessary adjustments gives us a much better and
clearer picture of how the entire season may unfold.Taking a look at some specific results, it is
not surprising to see BUF & DET leading the way in regards to additional
projected wins.Let’s look at DET a
little closer, and their +2.1 wins.Before the season started I gave DET a rounded total of 1.5 wins for
their first three games.Based upon that
piece of information we now know that my +1 level to their power rating after
seeing their first 3gms added an approx. 0.6 wins to the remainder of their
season.As you can see there are two
pieces that will drive an increase or decrease in wins – the actual results of
their first three games, and the adjustment to their power rating thru Wk3.

Based upon
the win totals above I also construct a mock standings matrix to project which
teams are best positioned, based on performance and future schedule, to make
the playoffs.

Here are the
latest standings thru Wk3:

AFC East

Wins

Loss

NFC East

Wins

Loss

NE

9.33

6.67

PHI

10.78

5.22

NYJ

9.03

6.97

DAL

8.72

7.28

BUF

8.56

7.44

NYG

8.40

7.60

MIA

5.52

10.48

WAS

8.39

7.61

AFC North

NFC North

BAL

11.27

4.73

GB

12.63

3.37

PIT

11.16

4.84

DET

9.58

6.42

CLE

7.39

8.61

CHI

7.48

8.52

CIN

6.37

9.63

MIN

5.64

10.37

AFC South

NFC South

HOU

9.44

6.57

NO

11.21

4.79

TEN

8.20

7.81

ATL

8.30

7.70

IND

6.21

9.79

TB

7.91

8.09

JAC

5.10

10.90

CAR

5.06

10.94

AFC West

NFC West

SD

9.61

6.39

SF

7.27

8.73

OAK

7.37

8.63

ARI

6.62

9.39

DEN

6.77

9.23

STL

5.58

10.42

KC

5.69

10.31

SEA

5.44

10.56

Teams
highlighted brown are projected division winners, while teams highlighted in
green are the two projected Wild Card teams per conference.

Based upon
that data here is what the potential playoff matchups look like as of now:

AFC

NFC

#6
NYJ @ #3 HOU

#6
DAL @ #3 PHI

#5
PIT @ #4 NE

#5
DET @ #4 SF

#1
BAL

#1
GB

#2
SD

#2
NO

Some
interesting matchups if these were to hold true, unlikely after only 3wks of
action.But nevertheless it is fun to
speculate, and see where your team could potentially play in January.

Hope you
find this information useful and fun to read.I play on updating this analysis each week, and will post an article
like this every other week to keep everyone abreast of where their team stands.

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.