Tory doubts grow as poll lead falls to four points

Latest daily YouGov poll suggests Labour could emerge as the single largest party.

Britain remains on course for a hung parliament at the next election, according to a new opinion poll which shows the Conservatives' lead over Labour falling to just four points.

The latest daily YouGov survey for the Sun put the Tories down three points to 36 per cent, Labour up two to 32 per cent and the Liberal Demcocrats up four to 20 per cent. If repeated at a general election on a uniform swing, the latest figures would produce a hung parliament with Gordon Brown 31 seats short of an overall majority.

The poll will add to concern in Conservative circles that with just weeks to go before an election is called, David Cameron is set to struggle to win a majority.

But there was better news for the Tories in the latest Harris survey for the free newspaper Metro. The poll put the Conservatives on 37 per cent, eight points ahead of Labour, who are on 29 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are on 18 per cent. If repeated at a general election, the figures would leave Cameron 20 seats short of a majority.

The Tories were previously confident that they would secure a majority by performing disproportionately in marginal constituencies. But a Times/Populus poll showing Labour and the Tories neck and neck in 100 key seats has upset that assumption.

In order to secure a single-seat majority in the Commons, Cameron needs to win at least 117 seats from Labour and the Liberal Democrats - a feat that has not been performed since 1931.