Looking to invest in AGRICULTURE THEME? Avoid at the moment as it ranked among the worst performers

Agriculture ranked among the worst performers on Tuesday. It fell by -1.48% to close at 1280.05. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.

~AGRICULTURE showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~AGRICULTURE fell by -15.71% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.32%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +13.84% to investors.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

~AGRICULTURE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 18 Jan, 2018 to 24 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 7 months and 7 days, ~AGRICULTURE outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months ~AGRICULTURE was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.27% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.0%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.76%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.1% of investor capital.

During the last year ~AGRICULTURE had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. ~AGRICULTURE returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ~AGRICULTURE was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -9.33% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~AGRICULTURE had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~AGRICULTURE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Success seems to be connected with action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don't quit. -- Conrad Hilton

~AGRICULTURE is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~AGRICULTURE's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 18 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~AGRICULTURE has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~AGRICULTURE to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~AGRICULTURE a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~AGRICULTURE has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~AGRICULTURE must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~AGRICULTURE.

Based on your interest in ~AGRICULTURE you may find it interesting to know that AMZN, MSFT and CSCO are large caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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