Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 3, 2013):

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If you've just come from the ABC post this week, there's more water treading with the obvious here at this week's CBS post.

While it is certain that CBS will cancel one of the three shows in the headline to make room for a new drama next Fall (and possibly more if Golden Boy is renewed, or they reduce their drama hours) I'm the first to admit that guessing which of the three is probably my shakiest current prediction on any network.

I have CSI:NY as "likely canceled" based on little more than the fact that its season is ending early (and it's an old, low rated show, but that's nothing new). Would I be surprised if either The Good Wife or The Mentalist is canceled instead? Not one tiny bit. But I was going to make a call by the end of the season anyway, and it's unlikely I will know more before then, so I figured that fortune favors The Bold.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bearon Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Instead of cancelling any of the three, can they renew them as first run summer series?

Dude

Its good wife or the CSI:NY that will get canceled cause the mentalist is moving up back to 2.0 ratings. I hope its CSI cause I really like the good wife.

Fake Me Out

Interesting article @ TVGuide points out the avg. age of the Vegas viewer is 60.7 … just a taaaaaaad outside the demo range

fyi & ymmv

MichaelChickless

I say cancel Vegas (which I like), The Good Wife, and Golden Boy. Renew the rest.

Nazel

OMG I can’t believe someone has actually said TGW is unwatchable, just kill me now, I’ve lost my will to live ..
Well seeing what kind of shows they like to watch, I’m not really surprised ..

Paul Watson

I’m betting CSI:NY… they seem to be winding down the storyline and bringing some closure to all of the main characters.

Ultima

@tv#1A possible CBS 2013-2014 TV schedule could be…

Because CBS has a history of moving around shows and breaking up successful nights for no reason?

Judy912

If one series must be canceled then I would have to resort to ‘CSI NY’. All three are good programs but I like ‘The Mentalist’ and ‘The Good Wife’ better than ‘CSI NY’.

Ultima

@LanceIf only one of those 3 shows mentioned are cancelled, I will be shocked. It will be 2 at least.

You think Golden Boy will be renewed? If not, why do you think CBS is going to cut back on its drama hours?

glover

I don’t think they will cancel The Mentalist. I think it’s between TGW and CSI NY. I hope CSI NY will be the one that’s get canceled. I don’t watch TGW but I have the 2 first seasons on DVD and I want to watch it on summer and then watch the next 2 seasons online. I watched the first 7 episodes of the show and I really liked it.

DW

again with this?. vegas is gone. i see those promos and the actors look like their waiting for it to be cancelled.

the mentalist is gone. csi : ny.gone. good wife on life support.

gerry

@ rick – thanks, you took the words right out of my mouth

i’ve been predicting TGW renewals each season and have been correct. last season it was a lock. i think its got one more with a kick to friday.

gerry

ps – good picture of Julianna Margulies this week, Bill

a p garcia

Please let it be TGW.

babs

The Mentalist has done well in spite of being moved to Sunday night after football because it’s a really good show with a great cast. Simon Baker said on Larry King Now that maybe it will last six or seven years. I hope the seven years (or more) is true, I’m not ready for The Mentalist to be over.

Tom

No way The Mentalist will be cancelled. It’s first year in that dreaded slot, it does solidly in spite of it and always builds on its dreadful lead in (which in itself is almost always down from having a good lead). I think it’ll get at least one more season. In fact, I’m sure of it.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“again with this?.”

You ain’t seen nothin’ yet brother.

Other than “this” and Vegas, what exactly is there to talk about concerning CBS scripted show futures on a weekly basis until Golden Boy premieres?

PhilipM

@DW: How do you think CBS is going fill those precious timeslots on Sunday at 10 and Friday at 9? It’s one thing to move or “sacrifice” one established drama and put it in one of those timeslots, but two at the same time? Seems highly unlikely. Not to mention that CBS would have to find three new dramas that could actually work from Monday-Thursday. They’ve only had one drama hit in the last two seasons (POI). Elementary’s ratings are decent at best. It would be ballsy two cancel two dramas out of TGW, TM and CSI: NY alongside another likely cancellation candidate like Golden Boy.

Ultima

@Bill GormanOther than “this” and Vegas, what exactly is there to talk about concerning CBS scripted show futures on a weekly basis until Golden Boy premieres?