Displaying items by tag: Joe Mauer

Baseball quite literally is not making ballplayers like Joe Mauer anymore. In fact, he’s potentially the last of a bygone era, during which striking out was still frowned upon by coaches and downright despised by some players.

Joe Mauer hates striking out — so much so he struck out just once in high school. Even as Major League Baseball evolved into a game with more pitchers throwing harder and nastier pitches than ever before, Mauer refused to change his approach and was good enough to not only get away with it, but force defenses to adjust to him just as Barry Bonds before him. Mauer received one of the most extreme defensive outfield shifts in baseball, and he got his hits despite it.

Of the top 21 seasons in overall strikeouts in MLB history, Mauer played in 15. He struck out more than 100 times just once, and his OPS+ was under 100 in just two seasons of his career. But some still think Mauer was overpaid given the expectancy for him to catch full-time.

Addressing Mauer’s Haters

Mauer, a soft-spoken, Minnesota-nice guy, has his share of haters who think he should have cowboyed up and got behind the plate to earn his $23 million every year despite a concussion issue that not only threatened his career but his life off the field. An issue that reappeared this season upon a dive for a ball at first base and might be responsible for Mauer’s indecision regarding his playing future.

Mauer’s haters should know over the course of his career, the Twins paid Joe just $374,856.42 more per win above a replacement player than the Marlins and Tigers paid Cabrera, and the Tigers still owe him at least $154 million. The Twins paid just $728,825.30 more per win above a replacement player than the Cardinals and Angels have paid Pujols, who’s still owed $87 million. If you average the WAR of both Cabrera and Pujols over their last seven years across the remaining years of their contracts, their cost per win above a replacement player balloons to $381,619.65 and $80,136.39 more per WAR than Joe, respectively.

Not being overpaid relative to his fellow first basemen won’t make Mauer a first-ballot Hall of Famer like Pujols and Cabrera, but it doesn’t hurt.

The Hall of Fame Question

Most will say Mauer’s six All-Star appearances and 2,123 hits aren’t enough. Most will say he never won a playoff series. Most will say his 55.1 career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) isn’t even as good as another former Twin (David Ortiz, 55.3) despite it being top-100 all time amongst Hall of Fame position players and 151st all time in MLB history, according to Baseball Reference.

Mauer’s integrity and humility are Hall-of-Fame caliber, however. Unlike Ortiz, who failed a 2003 performance-enhancing drug test, Mauer’s legacy is unquestioned and untarnished. Although Mauer only played in the post-steroid era of Major League Baseball (the drug policy as we know it was first implemented and enforced in 2004), he’s someone who might have benefited from steroids and had an “opportunity” to use them after sustaining a knee injury in his rookie season. At 21, Joe knew better, and at 28, when his body struggled recovering from surgery and then fell ill with pneumonia, Mauer probably never even considered using steroids.

Mauer came back in 2012 to lead the league in on-base percentage (OBP), beating his 2011 OBP by 56 points (.420). His .351 OBP in 2018 is the worst of his career and was still the 50th-best in baseball and 10 percent better than the MLB average (.318). He was top-10 in league OBP and batting average seven times and top-10 in Adjusted OPS+ six times in his career.

Mauer’s .3063 career batting average is, ironically, identical to his Hall of Fame manager’s, good for 138th-best all time. But Paul Molitor has 1,196 more hits than Joe. Regardless, Mauer’s career batting average is sandwiched between Hall of Famers Ernie Lombardi and George Kell, and is better than that of the next-best hitting catcher of his era, Buster Posey (.306). Mauer’s the only catcher ever to win three batting titles, too.

But what makes Hall of Famers is their relative dominance of their respective eras. Barry Bonds didn’t have to beat Babe Ruth in career home runs; he just needed to dominate his era like Ruth his. Mauer is a Hall of Famer given his place amongst his peers.

When compared to his peers, from 2004 to 2018, Mauer’s batting average ranks ninth, between Mike Trout and Buster Posey. His OBP is twelfth, between Hall of Famer Chipper Jones and Bryce Harper. His Weighted Runs Created (WRC) is tenth, whereas Posey ranks 94th. On an All-MLB 2004–18 Team, Mauer would clearly be the catcher, and he’s probably the fourth-best first baseman of his generation, behind Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Joey Votto — all first-ballot Hall of Famers.

Mauer’s numbers aren’t first-ballot-Hall-of-Fame worthy, but the way he represented the game of baseball and himself on and off the field is worthy of first-ballot consideration, which he’ll receive. Joe might even be a victim of the Hall of Fame shrinking the length of time players stay on the ballot from 15 years to 10. Mauer won’t be eligible for induction until 2023 at the earliest, but judging from the lack of retirees expected this season, he could benefit from a lack of competition. We don’t know if this is Adrian Beltre’s final season, and if it isn’t, Mauer could be sharing the ballot with holdovers from previous years, not including Bonds or Roger Clemens, who will fall off the ballot in three years.

Even if Joe isn’t voted into the MLB Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, he will most certainly get support from the Hall of Fame’s Veterans Committee. One way or another, Joe Mauer is a Hall of Fame player. Personally, I’d like to see if he’s a Hall of Fame manager.

Ehire Adrianza has no business playing shortstop everyday, and Gregorio Petit has no business on an MLB roster. Ryan LaMarre should be nothing more than a fourth outfielder and pinch runner. And it’s way past time for the Minnesota Twins to call up Nick Gordon.

The Ehire Adrianza Problem

On Wednesday night in Minneapolis, Ehire Adrianza started at shortstop because Logan Morrison’s back was still a bit stiff, moving Miguel Sano to first base and Eduardo Escobar to third. Miguel playing first makes a lot of sense, but Adrianza being in the lineup with Gordon hitting .357 at AAA Rochester just doesn’t compute.

Adrianza even had two doubles and drove in a run before booting a ball that led to a four-run sixth inning. Adrianza wasn’t given an error on the play. How I don’t know, but it was the play that forced the Twins to go to its bullpen, specifically, the overused Ryan Pressly. Pressly has appeared in 31 of the Twins’ 58 games, and he’s starting to show signs of fatigue. In his last three appearances, he’s allowed three earned runs over two innings, allowing four hits and a walk.

The Pressly problem I’ll save for another rant. This rant is about never seeing Gregorio Petit and Ehire Adrianza in Twins uniforms again. Even if Gordon struggles to hit in the bigs, which hasn’t been a problem for him at any level, he’s better defensively and on the bases than Petit and Adrianza right now.

Gordon is an Upgrade Defensively at Shortstop

Adrianza is three runs below average over 1,200 innings at shortstop. Petit is 48 runs below average over 1,200 innings. And while I don’t have access to the same stat for Gordon, Baseball Reference does tell me his range factor per game (3.46) is higher than Adrianza’s (3.28) and Petit’s (2.67).

Gordon is an Upgrade on the Bases

It’s also safe to assume Gordon to be a better base runner than both Adrianza and Petit. I can’t tell you how many runs Gordon is worth on the bases, but I can tell you he’s faster than Adrianza and Petit. Baseball Prospectus’ editor Aaron Gleeman indicates as much with regards to Adrianza on Twitter.

Adrianza and Petit have each cost the Twins a run on the bases this season and have combined for three stolen bases on four attempts. Gordon is seven of 11 on stolen base attempts this year.

Gordon is an Upgrade at the Plate

I know what you’re thinking: “It doesn’t matter how good Gordon is on the bases if he’s not on base.” Well, his batting average at AAA is higher than Adrianza’s on-base percentage and Petit’s batting average. Gordon is hitting .357 with an on-base percentage of .379. Adrianza’s on-base percentage sat at .281 at the time of this writing, and Petit’s average is .308 in 30 plate appearances.

The Lineup with Gordon

Assuming Morrison and Joe Mauer become available soon, which seems to be the case, you might think Adrianza’s playing time will diminish, and that’s true. But until Byron Buxton is healthy, which could take considerable time, LaMarre will still play center field, where Max Kepler is 35 runs above average over 1,200 innings to LaMarre’s -56. That’s a difference of 91 runs over 135 games.

I don’t know about you, but I’d also rather have Nick Gordon’s bat in the lineup instead of LaMarre’s. LaMarre might be hitting a respectable .288 with a .681 OPS, but just three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. Consider this:

Joe Mauer, 1B

Brian Dozier, 2B

Eddie Rosario, RF

Miguel Sano, 3B

Eduardo Escobar, LF

Max Kepler, CF

Logan Morrison, DH

Mitch Garver, C

Nick Gordon, SS

I think this lineup is better defensively, better on the bases and better at the plate than Paul Molitor’s, but I’m not the reigning American League Manager of the Year. Molitor might not be able to convince president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine to call up Gordon, and I don't know what they're doing claiming Taylor Motter, but Molitor should be in their ear every day, because it’s way past time for the Minnesota Twins to call up Nick Gordon.