I need your help for a short research project

No, I’m not asking for money, just some crowdsourced help. I have a short project that I can do in some free time tomorrow night, that is if I can get a little help. As you folks know by now, I’ve reduced the amount of time I spend on WUWT to work on my business which needs attention.

Normally I’d do this research myself, but I figure I have the best web research team in the world at my fingertips – the WUWT reader base, so that’s why I’m asking. Crowdsourcing a project like this moves it along quickly.

Here’s what I’m looking for:

I’m looking for pronouncements in press and blogs from prominent players and scientists in the AGW issue where they’ve said “We’ll have an ice free Arctic by the year xxxx”.

This number keeps changing, I’d like to document it and I have an idea about what I can do with it once a database of such pronouncements is established.

This can be recent news, as well as older news items. I recall that there have been some news article from as far back as the mid to early 20th century that have had such pronouncements.

Just leave what you find in comments below. Be sure to inlcude a URL in the comment, just paste it from your browser address bar and wordpress will automatically make a link out of it.

I’ll be offline most of today, but will check in tonight. Thanks for your consideration.

178 thoughts on “I need your help for a short research project”

Here’s one from Ban Ki Moon in 2009, avidly reported by the Biased Broadcasting Corporation (I submitted a complaint after this was on BBC TV News):
“If this trend is not stopped, we may have a virtually ice-free Arctic within 30 years,”http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8230921.stm

From ClimateCrisis.net, “The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer by 2050” with a footnote: “Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Also quoted in Time Magazine, Vicious Cycles, Missy Adams, March 26, 2006.”
See >here.

“NOAA cites as its source on Arctic sea ice a study published in the April 3, 2009 edition of Geophysical Research Letters by J.E. Overland and Muyin Wang. (Overland works for NOAA at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Wang is at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, in Seattle.)http://mrc.org/pdf/WANG-OVERLAND-ARCTIC%20SEA%20ICE%20ESTIMATE.pdf
In their study, Overland and Wang “predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037.” They also note in their summary, however, that “a sea ice free Arctic in September may occur as early as the late 2020s” based on their analysis of six computer models.” (quoted text from http://www.cnsnews.com/node/69845)
Second prediction is 2013: Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, source http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

The Praeger Handbook on Contemporary Issues in Native America by Bruce Elliott Johansen, Praeger Publishers, Westport, CT (2007), p. 285:
Watt-Cloutier told a climate-change conference in Seattle on October 27, 2003, “I am not being alarmist when I say that many inuit leaders have concluded that the long term impact of climate change is the ‘ultimate’ threat facing [the] Inuit.” By 2070 to 2090, said Watt-Cloutier, scientific projections suggest that year-round sea ice will be limited to a small portion of the Arctic Ocean near the North Pole. The rest of the arctic will be ice-free in summer.

Here’s a newspaper article from 1926. The North Pole was pretty much ice free in 1926, as reported by the crew of the first dirigible flight across the N. Pole:http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=5louAAAAIBAJ&sjid=oNkFAAAAIBAJ&pg=6377,694076&dq=north-pole+water&hl=en
Today’s North Pole ice cover is huge by comparison. And then there’s John Daly’s report of open water at the formerly solid ice covered, impenetrable Polar region back in 1817:
“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.”http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm

Last Chance: Preserving Life on Earth by Larry J. Schweiger, Theodore Roosevelt, IV, Fulcrum Publishing (2009), p. 24:
[Maslowski] warned scientists that the Arctic will be ice-free sometime during the summer of 2013.
Also on p. 109.:
Another instance in a long line of US media failures occurred on December 12, 2007, when Wieslaw Maslowski, a research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, told a large gathering at the American Geophysical Union meeting that the Arctic will be ice-free sometime during the summer of 2013.

“This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
Sorry in my haste I lost the link to the article I took this from. I hope you can find it if I cannot.

Ice-free by 2013http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm
“Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.”Ice-free within 30 yearshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/11/arctic-ice-free
“In the past 10 days, the Arctic ocean has been losing as much as 150,000 square kilometres of sea a day, said Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC.”Ice-free within a decadehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
“Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years.”Ice-free in 2008 (?!!!)http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13779?DCMP=ILC-hmts&nsref=news1_head_dn13779
“The set-up for this summer is disturbing,” says Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A number of factors have this year led to most of the Arctic ice being thin and vulnerable as it enters its summer melting season.Ice-free by 2105http://www.livescience.com/401-arctic-summer-ice-free-2105.html
“What really makes the Arctic different from the rest of the non-polar world is the permanent ice in the ground, in the ocean, and on land,” said Jonathan Overpeck, chair of the National Science Foundation’s Arctic System Science Committee. “We see all of that ice melting already, and we envision that it will melt back much more dramatically in the future, as we move towards this more permanent ice-free state.”

Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax, by Larry Bell, Austin TX (2011), p. 145:
Citing new research undertaken at the US Navy’s Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, Mr. Gore told attendees, “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr. [Wieslaw] Maslowski that there is a 75 percent chance the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years . . . It is hard to capture the astonishment that the experts in the science of ice felt when they saw this.”
Scientists wwre astonished by Gore’s statements. One was none other than Dr. Maslowski himself, who responded, “It’s unclear to me how the figure was arrived at […”]

The arctic has been beaten to death.
Let’s branch out.
Holdren’s predictions :
Excerpt: Senator David Vitter (R-Louisiana): OK. Another statement. In 1986, you predicted that global warming could cause the deaths of one billion people by 2020. Would you stick to that statement today?
Holdren: Well, again, I wouldn’t have called it a prediction then, and I wouldn’t call it a prediction now. I think it is unlikely to happen, but it is …http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=2794

johnhttp://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/11/in-nod-to-global-warming-navy-prepares-for-ice-free-arctic/#more-19607
[snip]
The Navy’s Arctic Roadmap (.pdf), written by the recently launched Navy Task Force Climate Change (TFCC), opens with an acknowledgment that worldwide temperatures are on the rise — especially up north. “The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe. While significant uncertainty exists in projections for Arctic ice extent, the current scientific consensus indicates the Arctic may experience nearly ice-free summers sometime in the 2030s,” the document notes.

1. Arctic will be ice-free within a decade, Telegraph, UK, Apr 2009Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years. He said thinner sea ice is less likely to survive the summer and predicted the Arctic Ocean will be effectively ice free sometime between 2020 and 2040, although it is possible it could happen as early as 2013.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
2. Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’, BBC, December 2007
– “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher [Professor Wieslaw Maslowski] from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

Search “ice free by 2012”, “ice free by 2013”, etc., one at a time.Include the quotes.
Here’s a good one from 2007 regarding 2012:“Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?”http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
Select quotes from the article:“”The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado. ““You can’t look away from what’s happening here,” said Waleed Abdalati, NASA’s chief of cyrospheric sciences.”“[…] has everything sped up to a new climate cycle that goes beyond the worst case scenarios presented by computer models?”“NASA’s Zwally said […] “It’s getting even worse than the models predicted.” “
Section-headings assert:“The Facts”“Tipping Point”“New Regime”

This posting, http://groups.google.com/group/alt.global-warming/browse_thread/thread/794c66c45aab63d0?fwc=1&pli=1
Contains this paragraph:
3. “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over
the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-
free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.” Christian Science Monitor, June
8, 1972. In 2008 Dr. David Barber of Manitoba University said “We’re
actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice
for the first time,” (ignoring the many earlier times the Pole has
been ice free).

I’m sure everyone remembers this onehttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/22/a-little-known-but-failed-20-year-old-climate-change-prediction-by-dr-james-hansen/
Michaels also has the facts wrong about a 1988 interview of me by Bob Reiss, in which Reiss asked me to speculate on changes that might happen in New York City in 40 years assuming CO2 doubled in amount. Michaels has it as 20 years, not 40 years, with no mention of doubled CO2. Reiss verified this fact to me, but he later sent the message:
“I went back to my book and re-read the interview I had with you. I am embarrassed to say that although the book text is correct, in remembering our original conversation, during a casual phone interview with a Salon magazine reporter in 2001 I was off in years. What I asked you originally at your office window was for a prediction of what Broadway would look like in 40 years, not 20. But when I spoke to the Salon reporter 10 years later probably because I’d been watching the predictions come true, I remembered it as a 20 year question.“

I would like to see a whole range of failed predictions not just Ice Free arctic ones.
Alarmists are terrible swami’s and it is fun to tweak their tail.
They have predicted 100 out of the past 0 catastrophe’s .

It’s all about where you go to look for what you’re looking for, so in your case try scholar.google.com with the actual phrase: “ice free arctic”, and you’ll get a wealth of hippie doom and gloom information about the arctic ice. My first rendered 20 links covering, in various degrees of interest, 1966 to 2009.
The paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, from 1966: The Heat Budgets of an Ice-Free and an Ice-Covered Arctic Ocean, by Donn and Shaw, seems befitting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
“Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’ ……….By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco 12 December 2007
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. ..Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.
Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.
Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html
Ice-Free Arctic Summers Likely Sooner Than Expected April 2, 2009
Summers in the Arctic may be ice-free in as few as 30 years, not at the end of the century as previously expected. The updated forecast is the result of a new analysis of computer models coupled with the most recent summer ice measurements. ….“The Arctic is changing faster than anticipated,” said James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and co-author of the study,………Overland and his co-author, Muyin Wang, a University of Washington research scientist with the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean in Seattle, analyzed projections from six computer models, including three with sophisticated sea ice physics capabilities. That data was then combined with observations of summer sea ice loss in 2007 and 2008…..The area covered by summer sea ice is expected to decline from its current 4.6 million square kilometers (about 1.8 million square miles) to about 1 million square kilometers (about 390,000 square miles) – a loss approximately two-fifths the size of the continental U.S. Much of the sea ice would remain in the area north of Canada and Greenland and decrease between Alaska and Russia in the Pacific Arctic………..The Arctic is often called the ‘Earth’s refrigerator’ because the sea ice helps cool the planet by reflecting the sun’s radiation back into space,” said Wang. “With less ice, the sun’s warmth is instead absorbed by the open water, contributing to warmer temperatures in the water and the air.”

Sen. Kerry Predicts ‘Ice-Free Arctic’ In ‘5 or 10 Years’
Speaking at a town hall-style meeting promoting climate change legislation on Thursday, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) predicted there will be "an ice-free Arctic" in "five or 10 years."
Thursday, July 22, 2010http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/69845
Ice-free Arctic could be here in 23 years
The Guardian, Wednesday 5 September 2007 Dr Serreze (US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University in Denver ) said: “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate. It seems that the Arctic is going to be a very different place within our lifetimes, and certainly within our children’s lifetimes.”http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/05/climatechange.sciencenews
Arctic’s First Ice-Free Summer Possible Even This Year
June 27, 2008
Satellite data gathered by the University of Colorado’s National Snow and Ice Data Center showed that young sea ice, which is no more than about 60 inches deep and much more susceptible to melting away, now makes up 72 percent of the Arctic ice sheet.
Andy Mahoney, a center researcher, has pinpointed this year in particular as having the “greatest chance” of being ice-free.http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=5265092&page=1
Arctic to be ice-free in summer in 20 years: scientist
Thu Oct 15, 2009 2:37pm EDT LONDON (Reuters) – Global warming will leave the Arctic Ocean ice-free during the summer within 20 years, raising sea levels and harming wildlife such as seals and polar bears, a leading British polar scientist said on Thursday.
Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at the University of Cambridge, said much of the melting will take place within a decade, although the winter ice will stay for hundreds of years.http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/10/15/us-climate-britain-arctic-science-idUSTRE59E18W20091015
Arctic ice ‘could be gone in five years’
5:01PM GMT 12 Dec 2007
And Nasa climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3318239/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-in-five-years.html
Ice-free Arctic in summer seen in 7 years
December 14, 2007|By Laurie Goering
Warning that the pace of climate change is quickly accelerating beyond previous scientific predictions, meteorologists predicted Thursday at UN climate talks in Bali that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer within seven years, rather than the half-century once expected. ….. The pace of melting of sea ice has been “dramatic,” said Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the UN agency, noting that the extent of Arctic summer sea ice has fallen 23 percent in just two years.http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2007-12-14/news/0712140047_1_sea-ice-climate-talks-ice-free
New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
4/7/2011 Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade. The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski’s team a deal of criticism from some of their peers. Now they are working with a new computer model – compiled partly in response to those criticisms – that produces a “best guess” date of 2016.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13002706
Arctic Ice Gone By 2015 – First Time in One Million Years Dec 13 2008 (IPS)
“Things are happening much faster in the Arctic. I think it will be summer ice-free by 2015,” said David Barber, an Arctic climatologist at the University of Manitoba. http://stephenleahy.net/2008/12/30/arctic-ice-gone-2015-first-time-in-a-million-years/

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100802173736.htm
Ice-Free Arctic Ocean May Not Be of Much Use in Soaking Up Carbon Dioxide
ScienceDaily (Aug. 3, 2010) — The summer of 2010 has been agonizingly hot in much of the continental U.S., and the record-setting temperatures have refocused attention on global warming. Scientists have been looking at ways the Earth might benefit from natural processes to balance the rising heat, and one process had intrigued them, a premise that melting ice at the poles might allow more open water that could absorb carbon dioxide, one of the major compounds implicating in warming. ……Now, though, in research just published in the journal Science and led by a University of Georgia biogeochemist, that idea may be one more dead end. In fact, a survey of waters in the Canada Basin, which extends north of Alaska to the North Pole, shows that its value as a potential carbon dioxide “sink” may be short-lived at best and minor in terms of what the planet will need to avoid future problems.
“The Canada Basin and entire Arctic Ocean are still taking up carbon dioxide,” said Wei-Jun Cai, a professor in the department of marine biology in UGA’s Franklin College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the study. “But our research shows that as the ice melts, the carbon dioxide in the water very quickly reaches equilibrium with the atmosphere, so its use as a place to store CO2 declines dramatically and quickly. We never really understood how limited these waters would be in terms of their usefulness in soaking up carbon dioxide.”
The carbon dioxide level in the Earth’s atmosphere has increased dramatically since the industrial revolution, and around 30 percent of that CO2 has been absorbedby the oceans. That has been the good news. The bad news is that it increases the acidification of the seas, causing changes in conditions for the growth of all life forms.
Melting in the planet’s Arctic zone has been dramatic in the past three years. A recent paper predicted that the Arctic Ocean would be ice-free during summer within 30 years, Cai noted. Researchers in years past had predicted that increased areas of open water in the Arctic, while troublesome in many ways, might at least sequester increasing amounts of carbon dioxide because of summertime ice melts.
“This prediction, however, was made based on observations of very low surface water carbon dioxide levels,” said Cai, “from either highly productive ocean margin areas or basin areas under earlier ice-covered conditions before the recent major ice retreat.”
…..an international team of scientists in the summer of 2008 boarded the retrofitted Chinese research vessel Xue Long (Snow Dragon) for a three-month research voyage………..What Cai and colleagues found was that as greater areas of ice melt each summer, the Canada Basin’s potential as a CO2 sink will diminish dramatically mainly because of the rapid uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. And because of this carbon dioxide uptake, the waters become quite acidic and “a poor environment for calcium-carbonate shell-bearing marine organisms,” Cai said.
“One of the take-away lessons of this research is that we can’t expect the oceans to do the job of helping offset global warming in the short term,” said Cai.
Cai’s work is supported by the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In the paper “A Sea Ice Free Summer Arctic Within 30 Years?” published in the April 3, 2009 edition of Geophysical Research Letters, authors J.E. Overland and Muyin Wang say,
“”””[10] Our expected time frame of ~30 years to reach a September sea ice free Arctic is based on current conditions in the Arctic and information from the currently available set of fully coupled CMIP3 atmosphere-ocean-ice General Circulation Models (GCMs).””””
John

I searched for ‘ice free Arctic by” and was prompted with”ice free Arctic by 2030″ then
“ice free Arctic by 2015” and then “ice free Arctic by 2013”
This means further out in the future the prediction is, the more hits on google.

Ok. This was just entertaining, so I scrolled through the thread and snagged the dates spotted.
I didn’t count multiples since I had no idea if they were referencing identical studies. For a range, picked middle date, for “in 10 years” just added 10 to publication. This is of course excessive precision, but this is just for fun.
1989 2000 2002 2008 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2025 2029 2030 2031 2037 2039 2040 2067 2070 2105
aaand
1959+”not too many decades”

This is slightly off topic in that it is predictions of snow falls in SE Australia up to 2050 by our Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The attached slide show is based upon their models! Published in 2002.http://www.siaaustralia.com.au/_uploads/res/1_386.pdf

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200811/map-arctic
The Atlantic, Scott Borgerson, Visiting Fellow for Ocean Governance at the Council on Foreign Relations. 2008/11
BEFORE OUR EYES, the Arctic is changing from an impenetrable wasteland into an oceanic crossroads. The polar ice cap has lost up to half its thickness near the North Pole in just the past six years and may have passed a tipping point; it is now shrinking at more than three times the rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change only four years ago. At the current pace, the Arctic may well be ice-free in summer by 2013.

Time May 17 1954
“The Arctic icecap, covering some 3,000,000 square miles from Greenland to Northeastern Siberia, is the source of cold winds and ocean currents that affect the climate of the northern hemisphere. Last week Edward L. Gorton Jr. of the U.S. Navy Hydrographic Office released the first results of a continuing analysis of the polar wasteland.
Navy oceanographers found that one-tenth of the ice melts each summer, and the ice layer’s thickness is reduced to two or three meters. At present, the pack contains only 6,500 cubic miles of ice (barely enough to cover the state of Texas with a 125-ft. layer), and it is steadily shrinking. Since 1900, the thickness of the polar icecap has decreased by three feet because of higher general temperatures.
If the trend continues, predicts Gorton, the Arctic Ocean will eventually lose its permanent ice, freezing only in winter; at that point, none of the ice will reach the hard-core polar stage. The Navy’s tentative long-range forecast: “Great changes in climate will take place. This change . . . may foreshadow the end of the current ice age, but no timetable is set for this development.””http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,860739,00.html

Science 17 September 2004:
Vol. 305 no. 5691 p. 1693
DOI: 10.1126/science.305.5691.1693a
NEWS OF THE WEEK
PALEOCEANOGRAPHY
Signs of a Warm, Ice-Free Arctic
“..meters of mud cored should be a record of the last ice-free Arctic summers of millions of years ago, conditions that may return in the greenhouse world of 2100.”
Science 13 August 2004:
Vol. 305 no. 5686 p. 919
DOI: 10.1126/science.305.5686.919b
EDITORS’ CHOICE
CLIMATE SCIENCE
An Ice-Free Arctic?
“Their simulations predict that the Arctic will be almost free of sea ice during the summers toward the end of the this century (for another climate prediction for the late 21st century, see Meehl and Tebaldi, this issue, p. 994). — HJS”
Tellus A56, 328 (2004).
Science 16 March 2007:
Vol. 315 no. 5818 pp. 1533-1536
DOI: 10.1126/science.1139426
REVIEW
Perspectives on the Arctic’s Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover
“Rates of ice loss both for the past few decades and those projected through the 21st century nevertheless vary widely between individual models. Our analyses show that in the IPCC AR4 models driven with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emissions scenario (in which atmospheric CO2 reaches 720 parts per million by 2100), a near-complete or complete loss (to less than 1 × 106 km2) of September ice will occur anywhere from 2040 to well beyond the year 2100, depending on the model and the particular run for that model”
Science 18 June 2010:
Vol. 328 no. 5985 pp. 1523-1528
DOI: 10.1126/science.1189930
REVIEW
The Impact of Climate Change on the World’s Marine Ecosystemshttp://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/328/5985/1523/DC1
“(D) The loss of summer sea ice by 2040 in the Arctic will have a strong impact on a range of dependent organisms, both above and below the ice.”

Moderator, I often wonder why any brief posts I make here are always subject to moderation.
I am not a troll, but just a layman where science is concerned but one who is convinced that AGW is a scam. That is why I come here, to WUWT, to read new posts and comments.
Rgds
Peter Walsh, Dublin.
[Reply: Please don’t take it personally. All comments are subject to moderation. ~dbs, mod.]

Dunno if it will help any, but heres my contribution.
I do recommend that if anyone has an account at LexisNexis that they might be able to do a more encompassing search.
“In 2006, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicted that we might see an ice-free Arctic by the end of the century.
Now it seems that the panel’s prediction may come true much sooner than expected, perhaps within a decade. ”
“Watching the Arctic Melt Away” ANGUS HINES May 12, 2008http://abcnews.go.com/International/Weather/story?id=4836998&page=1
“We could have an ice-free Arctic by the year 2070, by the year 2080. In the last few years those predictions have come way, way in towards the present and now we’re saying maybe 2030, maybe 2020.”
Program Transcript – Marian Wilkinson’s “The Tipping Point” DR TED SCAMBOS 04/08/2008http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2323805.htm
“Researchers fear sea levels could be rising much faster than first thought with some scientists predicting an ice-free Arctic by the summer of 2100. ”
“Rapidly Melting Glaciers Fuel Rising Sea Levels” Unnamed Reporter – Sept. 24, 2007http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/TenWays/story?id=3642325
‘”There may well be an ice-free Arctic by the middle of the century,” Christopher Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey, told the seminar, accusing the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of underestimating the melt.’
“Islands emerge as Arctic ice shrinks to record low” Alister Doyle – Aug 20, 2007http://uk.reuters.com/article/2007/08/20/uk-climate-ice-idUKL2069726720070820

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?
Seth Borenstein in Washington
Associated Press
December 12, 2007
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
————————http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/03/arctic-ice-cap-gone.php
TreeHugger:
Arctic Ice Cap Could be Gone by the Summer
by Jeremy Elton Jacquot, Los Angeles on 03. 2.08
————————http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/13/994113/-Arctic-Ocean-ice:-gone-in-7-years
Wed Jul 13, 2011 at 04:35 AM PDT
Arctic Ocean ice: gone in 7 years
by Keith Pickering
I’ve added a quadratic fit to the data, and the curve hits zero in about 2018, just seven years from now. Given the uncertainty in the data, the actual zero point could be a few years either way from that projection – but probably not by much. …
Not only is the volume falling off a cliff (declining, and accelerating as it declines), but we’ve only got a few years left before we hit zero sea ice volume in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer.
————————http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/12/13/280501/-Arctic-Ice:-Going,-Going–Gone
Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 03:49 AM PST
Arctic Ice: Going, Going … Gone?
by DarkSyde for Daily Kos
Quoting:
ABC News — A team of scientists from the United States and Canada has found new evidence about the rapid melting of ice in the Arctic. Data presented at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union suggests all year-round ice could disappear by the year 2040. The scientists also believe recent research shows a tipping point which would trigger a rapid melting is fast approaching.
————————http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/2312253/Arctic-ice-gone-in-30-years
Arctic ice ‘gone in 30 years’
Last updated 09:20 03/04/2009
Arctic sea ice is melting so fast most of it could be gone in 30 years.
…
The new report by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, appears in Friday’s edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles (7.25 million sq km) normally to 620,000 square miles within 30 years.
————————http://stephenleahy.net/2008/12/30/arctic-ice-gone-2015-first-time-in-a-million-years/
Stephen Leahy, International Environmental Journalist
QUEBEC CITY, Canada, Dec 13 2008 (IPS)
Arctic Ice Gone By 2015 – First Time in One Million Years
[update Apr 29 2010: “When the sea ice melts, more heat is absorbed by the water. The warmer water then heats the atmosphere above it…this feedback system has warmed the atmosphere at a faster rate.” Confirms loss of sea ice is rapidly warming Arctic — Study in Nature yesterday. – SL]
————————
Dan Miller
August 18, 2009
Berkeley Cybersalon (video of presentation)
Melting Trends: Arctic Ice Completely Gone by 2020?
0:36 – The ice: “it’s going to be all gone in the next five or ten years.”
————————http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8005620/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-by-2030.html
Saturday 16 July 2011
Arctic ice could be gone by 2030
Arctic sea ice melted over the summer to cover the third smallest area on record, US researchers have said, warning that global warming could leave the region ice free by September 2030.
Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC, said…
Arctic ice was disappearing by 11 per cent per decade, he said.
“Our thinking is that by 2030 or so, if you went out to the Arctic on the first of September, you probably won’t see any ice at all. It will look like a blue ocean, we’re losing it that quickly,” he said.
————————http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3318239/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-in-five-years.html
Arctic ice ‘could be gone in five years’
By agencies
“The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the US government’s Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado.
————————http://hot-topic.co.nz/feel-floes-gone-by-2016/
Feel floes (gone by 2016)
by Gareth on April 27, 2010
… the Arctic could be effectively ice-free in summer within ten years — possibly as soon as 2013.
————————http://hot-topic.co.nz/five-years-threnody-for-arctic-sea-ice/
Five years (threnody for Arctic sea ice)
by Gareth on October 16, 2010
Bottom line: if the relationship between ice volume and extent evident in the NSIDC and PIOMAS data over the last 21 years continues in the near future, then the Arctic will be effectively ice-free in late summer sometime between 2015 and 2020
————————http://www.countercurrents.org/lowe161009.htm
Most Arctic Sea Ice ‘Gone In Decade’
By Tom Lowe
16 October, 2009
The Independent
The Arctic Ocean will be an “open sea” almost entirely free from ice within a decade, the latest data released today indicates.
————————http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Professor Maslowski’s group, which includes co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), is well known for producing modelled dates that are in advance of other teams.
————————http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13002706
New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
Richard Black By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News
Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade.
The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski’s team a deal of criticism from some of their peers.
Now they are working with a new computer model – compiled partly in response to those criticisms – that produces a “best guess” date of 2016.
————————http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/outposts/2009/04/artic-sea-ice-may-be-gone-in-30-yearswhat-will-become-of-wildlife.html
Arctic sea ice gone in 30 years — what will become of wildlife?
We knew polar bears were in trouble, what with the Arctic ice they require for survival disappearing at an alarming rate. …
A report on the issue, by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E. Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, will appear in Friday’s edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles to 620,000 square miles within 30 years. That represents serious shrinkage, with frightening implications for wildlife and humans.
————————http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/10/29/us-climate-canada-arctic-idUSTRE59S3LT20091029
Multiyear Arctic ice is effectively gone: expert
By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA | Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:01pm EDT
But David Barber, Canada’s Research Chair in Arctic System Science at the University of Manitoba, said the ice was melting at an extraordinarily fast rate.
“We are almost out of multiyear sea ice in the northern hemisphere,” he said in a presentation in Parliament.
————————http://www.tourism-review.tv/natural-heritage-sites-videocategory12
Video: Catlin Arctic Survey – October 2009
“the North Pole will be an open sea during the summer months within twenty years.”
————————http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/2010/06/when-will-arctic-ice-be-gone.html
Thursday, June 3, 2010
When will Arctic ice be gone?
The short answer, before I give you all the qualifiers needed to make sense of it, is 2035, give or take 7 years.
————————http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Perrenial_Sea_Ice.html
The Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Could Be Gone by End of the Century
10.23.03
————————http://www.euronews.net/2009/10/15/arctic-ice-gone-in-20-years-says-leading-expert/
Arctic ice gone in 20 years says leading expert
15/10/09 19:12 CET
The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summertime within 20 years, according to one of the world’s leading experts in the field. Professor Peter Wadham’s analysis was based on an extensive survey of polar ice.
————————http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2007/10/08/walrus_pla.html
Melting Sea Ice Forcing Walruses Ashore
Dan Joling, Associated Press
Oct. 8, 2007
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder, September sea ice was 39 percent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000. Sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return, with a possible ice-free Arctic Ocean by summer 2030, senior scientist Mark Serreze said.
————————http://drtimball.com/2011/rate-of-arctic-ice-melt-each-day-now-equals-the-size-of-west-virginia/
Rate of Arctic Ice Melt Each Day Now Equals the Size of West Virginia
by Dr. Tim Ball on June 8, 2011
————————http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=780
Polar ice cap gone by 2030?
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:39 PM GMT on September 07, 2007
In an interview published yesterday in The Guardian Dr. Mark Serreze, and Arctic ice expert with the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said: “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate.
————————http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/most-arctic-sea-ice-gone-in-decade-1803035.html
Most Arctic sea ice ‘gone in decade’
By Tom Lowe, Press Association
Thursday, 15 October 2009
The Arctic Ocean will be an “open sea” almost entirely free from ice within a decade, the latest data released today indicates. …
Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics and Head of the Polar Physics Group, has spearheaded the team analysing the results.
He said: “The summer ice cover in the Arctic will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years time. There won’t be any sea ice there at all
“In much less time than that, the ice in summer will be shrinking back to this last bastion north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, so within a decade we will see a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer.
————————http://www.aolnews.com/2009/12/14/polar-ice-cap-could-be-gone-in-5-years-gore-says/
Polar Ice Cap Could Be Gone in 5 Years, Gore Says
Dec 14, 2009 – 10:17 AM
Al Gore has told the U.N. climate conference that new data suggests the Arctic polar ice cap may disappear in the summertime as soon as five to seven years from now.\
————————http://www.kidzworld.com/article/7238-polar-ice-caps-here-today-gone-tomorrow
Currently, the polar ice caps are shrinking, most likely as a result of global warming. So what does this mean? Fewer penguins? A smaller backyard for Santa? Unfortunately the impact is much bigger than that. The sea level has risen six to eight inches (15 to 20 cm) in the last 100 years, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Some studies suggest that sea levels could rise as much as 20 feet by end of the century. …
Polar Ice Caps – What Can You Do? …
Tell your parents what you know about global warming and the environment. It’s important that they know as much as you do so they can vote for politicians who care about the environment.
————————http://www.thehungersite.com/clickToGive/ths/article/Melting-Trends-Arctic-Ice-Completely-Gone-by-2020133;jsessionid=7757620828170B4ACF690AFBBBC2B18E.ctg-c
Better World Blog
Melting Trends : Arctic Ice Completely Gone by 2020?
May 24, 2011 10:17:00 PM by a Citizen of the World
Video:
Dan Miller
August 18, 2009
Berkeley Cybersalon (video of presentation) Dan Miller
0:36 – The ice: “it’s going to be all gone in the next five or ten years.”
————————http://www.cejournal.net/?p=1376
News & Perspective from the Center for Environmental Journalism
Gore: polar ice caps will melt completely “in just a few years”
posted on March 15, 2009,
Update, Sunday 3/15/09:
Evidently, Gore has misspoken about polar ice melting before. See this Youtube video in which he says the entire north polar ice cap may be gone in five years…
————————http://beyond2012hq.com/will-2012-be-the-end-for-arctic-summer-ice/
August 28, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Arctic Summer Ice Gone by 2012
In 2007, scientists examined the record ice melt over the Arctic to attempt to assess the cause and to identify if it was a realistic indicator of future happenings or just a blip.
Revised estimates confirm that the accelerated melt is continuing and within 3 years there will be no summer ice in the Arctic.
————————http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/features/story.aspx?id=208
Arctic sea ice: going, going, gone
28 October 2008
In autumn 2007, sea-ice reached its lowest point ever recorded. 2008 came close to surpassing this record. Computer models predict the Arctic may be ice-free in summer by 2030.
————————http://ecology.com/features/vanishing-artic-ice-cap/vanishing-artic-ice-cap.html
The Vanishing of the Arctic Ice Cap
By Eric McLamb
Not only is the Arctic ice cap shrinking, it is shrinking at a pace that places its disappearance two to three decades ahead of the gloomiest previous forecasts. It is now generally predicted that the Arctic ice cap will totally disappear in 20 – 25 years, …
————————
————————http://current.com/green/88653981_polar-ice-gone-by-2012.htm
December 11, 2007
Polar ice gone by 2012?
source: http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/12/11/arctic.melt.ap/index.html
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
————————http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/12/11/arctic.melt.ap/index.html
Source of above article. Missing.
————————http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/10/15/climate.arctic.sea.ice.melt/index.html?iref=storysearch
Arctic ice to vanish in summer, report says
updated 6:55 p.m. EDT, Thu October 15, 2009
# Story Highlights
# New report says Arctic sea ice will largely disappear in summer within a decade
# Survey captured latest data on ice thickness in Northern part of Beaufort Sea
# Measurements show the ice-floes surveyed were on average 1.8 meters thick
# Scientists warn that Arctic ice melt is likely to set off “powerful climate feedbacks”
————————http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctics-vanishing-sea-ice-presents-polar-bear-with-a-new-danger-ndash-grizzlies-2161640.html
Arctic’s vanishing sea ice presents polar bear with a new danger – grizzlies
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Thursday, 16 December 2010
“The Arctic Ocean is predicted to be ice-free in summer before the end of the century, removing a continent-sized barrier to interbreeding…”
————————http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2009-08-09-canada-ice_N.htm
Large expanses of Arctic ice melt away in summer heat
Updated 8/9/2009 8:26 PM
At a global conference last March in Copenhagen, scientists declared that climate change is occurring faster than had been anticipated, citing the fast-dying Arctic cap as one example. A month later, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Arctic summers could be almost ice-free within 30 years, not at the century’s end as earlier predicted.
————————http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2009/08/10/summer-ice-melt-arctic.html
Arctic ice watchers concerned by warm summer
Last Updated: Monday, August 10, 2009 | 8:29 AM CT
The Associated Press
A month later, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Arctic summers could be almost ice-free within 30 years, not at the century’s end as earlier predicted
————————

I thought there was a UK project to transcribe/copy the ship logs of Her Majesty’s Navy into a computer database. These would include records far older than the 1817 article that was found. Anyone know something about this? These recods may not be on the Internet yet, but might be available another way in the UK. While not specifically predictions of global warming, they would document a lack of ice in the Arctic.
Any Icelandic sagas that speak to this topic? They could be even older.

Robinson says:
July 16, 2011 at 10:46 am
Ice-free in 2008 (?!!!)http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13779?DCMP=ILC-hmts&nsref=news1_head_dn13779
“The set-up for this summer is disturbing,” says Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A number of factors have this year led to most of the Arctic ice being thin and vulnerable as it enters its summer melting season.
However he went on to say: “”There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment,” says Serreze. “This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.”
Despite its news value in the media, the North Pole being ice free is not in itself significant. To scientists, Serreze points out, “this is just another point on the globe”. What is worrying, though, is the fact that multi-year ice – the stuff that doesn’t melt in the summer – is not piling up as fast as Arctic ice generally is melting.”
Anthony asked for predictions about the Arctic not the vicinity of the North Pole!

Most G-books show something “midcentury.”
But the 2008 UNEP annual report adds,
“…and in late 2007 researchers proposed that the Arctic summer may be ice free by 2013. (Holland and others 2006, Borenstein 2007)”

http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf
National Intelligence Council
“Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”
The National Intelligence Council is the senior-most analytical organization in the Intelligence Community. This report, published in November 2008, says (page 53) without a reference:
“Estimates vary as to when the Arctic is likely to be ice free during the summer. The National Snow and Ice Data Center suggests a seasonally ice-free Arctic by 2060; more current research suggests the date could be as soon as 2013.”

I wish to leave another avenue of inquiry, for your consideration. How about the use of the word “accelerating,” as in accelerating sea rises. Here is my concerns, each accepting the argument that “global warming” is primarily caused by man made ghgs in the past decades:
1. Why would there be accelerating global whatever from warming if the rise in CO2 concentrations has been constant and near linear for decades, as shown in the Mauna Loa readings.
2. Given AGW theory, should it not be true that warming should be decelerating given the emissivity characteristics of the CO2 molecule losing its “power to absorb” (so to speak) logarithmically? Thanks.

Arctic summer could be ice-free by 2040.http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16158893/
Quoting: Dec. 12 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, indicate that if greenhouse gases continue being released at their current rate, most of the Arctic basin will be ice free in September by 2040.
Citing lead author, Marika Holland, a scientists from NCAR
(“updated 12/11/2006 5:42:21 PM ET”)

I count 245 References. I think this has been going for about 12 hours. That’s 20 references per hour.
By tomorrow, Anthony, you should have close to 500. I might suggest an equally hilarious exercise would be to find out how many years out (starting in 1954, with the offical start of Hot Fusion research) “practical fusion power” is placed. Typically a “new major advancement” is made about once every 3 to 5 years. At that point it is said with AUTHORITY that ‘break even” will come in 5 to 10 years, and power production in 15 to 20 years. It’s a GREAT gambit, that has them puppies “fed” for almost 60 years, to a levelized cost of $1,000,000,000 per year. (All for nothing.)

Arctic Largely Ice Free in Summer Within Ten Years?
by John Roach
Source: sea-ice expert Peter Wadhams, og (sic) the University of Cambridge in Englandhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/090921-arctic-sea-ice.html
Added Quotation: “Serreze’s group in Boulder, though, is on record saying the Arctic’s summer sea ice will fully melt around 2030. Other groups have put the ice-free date as late as 2100.”
National Geographic News October 15, 2009

North Pole May Be Ice-Free This Summerhttp://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/environment/May-June-08/North-Pole-May-Be-Ice-Free-This-Summer.html
by findingDulcinea Staff
“After a drastic polar meltdown last year, climate scientists say that the Arctic region is primed for the previously unimaginable.”
“The North Pole may be free of ice for the first time in history,” said Canadian climate scientist David Barber to Canwest News Service. “This is a very dramatic change in the High Arctic Climate System.”
Post dated June 26, 2008 02:12 PM

The google search term
ice free Arctic by “1995..2100”
brings all 24,100,000 pages where the [phrase ‘ice free Artic by’ followed by any year from 1995 through 2100.
1. Dec 2007 “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
“So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.”
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Unionhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
2. same link http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
“Professor Wadhams said the Arctic was now being set up for further ice loss in the coming years.
“The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse.
“There will be even more opening up, even more absorption and even more melting.
“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.”
3. Same link http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Dr Mark Serreze was asked to give one of the main lectures here at this year’s AGU Fall Meeting.
Discussing the possibility for an open Arctic ocean in summer months, he told the meeting: “A few years ago, even I was thinking 2050, 2070, out beyond the year 2100, because that’s what our models were telling us. But as we’ve seen, the models aren’t fast enough right now; we are losing ice at a much more rapid rate.
“My thinking on this is that 2030 is not an unreasonable date to be thinking of.”
4. Joe Romm repeats the 2013 date at :http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2007/12/12/202190/an-ice-free-arctic-by-2013/
Will work on this more later….

2008 according to the Norwegian scientist Olav Orheim
Polar ice cap melting away in 2008 ?http://www.norwegianmoose.com/2008/03/polar-ice-cap-melting-away-in-2008.html
“How low will they go? Putting a date on the melting of the Arctic ice cap has been a popular prediction game among scientists of late; in recent months, we’ve heard estimates ranging from 2030 to as early as 2013.”
“The latest salvo comes courtesy of Xinhua, which reports that Olav Orheim, the head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, is placing his money on this summer. Noting that its ice sheet had reached a historical low of 3m sq. km last summer – it covered around 7.5m sq. km as recently as 2000 – Orheim told Xinhua that “if Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away.”
Roy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Resolute_%281850%29 story of the Resolute,1850’s ice ship. From being ice locked, it moved 1900km in 2 years before it was freed. point is that the ice is moving all the time.
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), published in November 2004, was a uniquely detailed study of Arctic climate compiled by 300 scientists over three years. The study found that while temperatures in the Arctic have increased significantly since 1980 (Figure 1), there was also a period in the 1930s and 1940s when temperatures were almost as warm. If one defines the Arctic as lying poleward of 62.5° north latitude (Polyakov, 2003), the 1930s and 1940s were the warmest period in the past 100 years. Looking at Figure 1, one cannot dismiss the possibility that temperatures in the Arctic oscillate in a 50-year period, and we are due for a cooling trend that will take temperatures below normal by 2030.http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

Hope this helps is some small way: Phil Valentine’s Bullet Points
Since 1895, the media has alternated between global cooling and warming scares during four separate and sometimes overlapping time periods. From 1895 until the 1930’s the media peddled a coming ice age. From the late 1920’s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950’s until the 1970’s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.
The National Academy of Sciences report reaffirmed the existence of the Medieval Warm Period from about 900 AD to 1300 AD and the Little Ice Age from about 1500 to 1850. Both of these periods occurred long before the invention of the SUV or human industrial activity could have possibly impacted the Earth’s climate. In fact, scientists believe the Earth was warmer than today during the Medieval Warm Period, when the Vikings grew crops in Greenland.
What the climate alarmists and their advocates in the media have continued to ignore is the fact that the Little Ice Age, which resulted in harsh winters which froze New York Harbor and caused untold deaths, ended about 1850. So trying to prove man-made global warming by comparing the well-known fact that today’s temperatures are warmer than during the Little Ice Age is akin to comparing summer to winter to show a catastrophic temperature trend.
Something that the media almost never addresses are the holes in the theory that C02 has been the driving force in global warming. Alarmists fail to adequately explain why temperatures began warming at the end of the Little Ice Age in about 1850, long before man-made CO2 emissions could have impacted the climate. Then about 1940, just as man-made CO2 emissions rose sharply, the temperatures began a decline that lasted until the 1970’s, prompting the media and many scientists to fear a coming ice age.
A letter sent to the Canadian Prime Minister on April 6, 2006 by 60 prominent scientists who question the basis for climate alarmism, clearly explains the current state of scientific knowledge on global warming. The 60 scientists wrote: “If, back in the mid-1990s, we knew what we know today about climate, Kyoto would almost certainly not exist, because we would have concluded it was not necessary.” The letter also noted: “‘Climate change is real’ is a meaningless phrase used repeatedly by activists to convince the public that a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the cause. Neither of these fears is justified. Global climate changes occur all the time due to natural causes and the human impact still remains impossible to distinguish from this natural ‘noise.”
In 2006, the director of the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks Alaska, testified to Congress that highly publicized climate models showing a disappearing Arctic were nothing more than “science fiction.”
“Geologists Think the World May be Frozen Up Again.” That sentence appeared over 100 years ago in the February 24, 1895 edition of the New York Times.
A front page article in the October 7, 1912 New York Times, just a few months after the Titanic struck an iceberg and sank, declared that a prominent professor “Warns Us of an Encroaching Ice Age.” The very same day in 1912, the Los Angeles Times ran an article warning that the “Human race will have to fight for its existence against cold.” An August 10, 1923 Washington Post article declared: “Ice Age Coming Here.”
By the 1930’s, the media took a break from reporting on the coming ice age and instead switched gears to promoting global warming: “America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776; Temperature Line Records a 25-year Rise” stated an article in the New York Times on March 27, 1933.
The media of yesteryear was also not above injecting large amounts of fear and alarmism into their climate articles. An August 9, 1923 front page article in the Chicago Tribune declared: “Scientist Says Arctic Ice Will Wipe Out Canada.” The article quoted a Yale University professor who predicted that large parts of Europe and Asia would be “wiped out” and Switzerland would be “entirely obliterated.”
A December 29, 1974 New York Times article on global cooling reported that climatologists believed “the facts of the present climate change are such that the most optimistic experts would assign near certainty to major crop failure in a decade.” The article also warned that unless government officials reacted to the coming catastrophe, “mass deaths by starvation and probably in anarchy and violence” would result. In 1975, the New York Times reported that “A major cooling [was] widely considered to be inevitable.”
On February 19, 2006, CBS News’s “60 Minutes” produced a segment on the North Pole. The segment was a completely one-sided report, alleging rapid and unprecedented melting at the polar cap. It even featured correspondent Scott Pelley claiming that the ice in Greenland was melting so fast, that he barely got off an ice-berg before it collapsed into the water. “60 Minutes” failed to inform its viewers that a 2005 study by a scientist named Ola Johannessen and his colleagues showing that the interior of Greenland is gaining ice and mass and that according to scientists, the Arctic was warmer in the 1930’s than today.
According to data released on July 14, 2006 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the January through June Alaska statewide average temperature was “0.55F (0.30C) cooler than the 1971-2000 average.”
In August 2006, Khabibullo Abdusamatov, a scientist who heads the space research sector for the Russian Academy of Sciences, predicted long-term global cooling may be on the horizon due to a projected decrease in the sun’s output.

This whole project very much needs some precise definitions, otherwise there will be a lot of hand-waving about the meaning of an ‘ice-free Arctic’ when it comes to the crunch.
When climate change fetishists say ‘ice-free’ they don’t really mean literally ice-free. They mean much less ice than now – little enough to dismiss what remains as insignificant.
We need to hold them to their literal statement by defining ‘Arctic’ and ‘ice-free’ in such a way that they cannot state the ‘Arctic is ice-free’ unless it literally is completely ice free. No icebergs, no bergy-bits, no growlers, nothing.
Time for the fetishists to come out and say precisely what they mean by ‘ice-free’.
Otherwise I’m not playing.

Global Warming Making Allergies Worse
Basically an increase in Co2 has been beneficial to plant life, but man made climate change seems to only increase those nasty plants that produce pollen, Yes that would be all of them.
In this clip you will hear the expert opinion of a medical doctor who says “because we’ve had a lot of rain, and now we’ve had a lot of dry weather for a lot of weeks, and we’ve had a lot of patients in that we haven’t seen in years”.
It really makes sense that plant life evolved to take advantage of just such a process, Co2 + Rain = more plant life followed by a seasonal dry weather spell to blow a lot of pollen about.
But there is still the suggestion of man made global warming causality.

Googling ‘arctic ice “tim flannery”‘ yields 71,500 results. Life is too short to check them all but I’m sure there are some howlers there. He never lets the facts stand in the way of a good scare story.

Prominent players: Film Industry
Billy Liar says: July 16, 2011 at 5:45 pm
<otherwise I'm not playing. You don’t need you to play, they have a captive audience in toddlers and children who don’t yet have the cognitive ability in parameters of time/space.Ice Age: The Meltdown MArch 2006
The film exceeded expectations by opening with an $68,033,544 in its first weekend
“In the opening scene, Scrat, the saber-toothed squirrel climbs a glacier but accidentally opens a hole in it. The world of ice is slowly melting. The creatures of the Ice Age are all shown enjoying themselves on slides and pools made by the melting ice; among them the three protagonists of the first film: Manny, Sid, and Diego. Sid opens a day camp, where none of the younger creatures take him seriously, nor do Manny and Diego, which leaves Sid seeking a daring deed. Fast Tony, a local con artist is claiming that the earth will flood and that the bark and reeds which he sells are needed to stay alive. Manny dismisses the idea, but is distracted…………”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Age:_The_MeltdownNo Time for Nuts can also be found on youtube.

At NOAA’s site, by 2035: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/sea_ice.htmlUsing the observed 2007/2008 summer sea ice extents as a starting point (Figure 1, above), computer models predict that the Arctic could be nearly sea ice free in summertime within 30 years (Figure 2, above). (Where it says 2035)
and this one:”Ice-free Arctic could be here in 23 years” David Adam, environment correspondent, The Guardian, September 5, 2007, Retrieved September 5, 2007

Ice Age: Continental Drift July 2012
Also a search on Google ‘national geographic ice free Arctic’ brought up pages of reports, many with dates Anthony.Prominent players: Educational TV
National Geographic streams at 7.30 pm. prime time children viewing and internet access for pictures (no drawing these days) for school projects. No year dates avail, presume streaming in 2011?
Do not state by ‘no ice by XXX’ but sublimal messages of melting ice which fits the (visual) narrative designed of much ‘science’ and ‘history’ delivered to kids these days.National Geographic channel Educational TV :p (search ‘Arctic ice’)
1. On Thin Ice
Superbly suited to their environment, polar bears thrive in the planet’s most hostile corners.
There is no more iconic symbol of strength and adaptation to the elements than the polar bear. An animal so superbly suited to its environment that it thrives in the most hostile corners of the planet. But this magnificent master of the arctic is once again in danger of disappearing. From the far north of the Canadian wilderness, to the arctic islands of Norway, leading scientists are in the field working on the cutting-edge of polar bear research, dedicated to securing a future for this magnificent creature. It is not too late for their survival, but only just. It is a race against time and one they are determined to win. The frozen expanses of the Arctic are shrinking at an unprecedented rate and the very survival of the polar bear is literally on thin ice. http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/on-thin-ice/
2. Polar Bear Alcatraz
Imagine being marooned on an Arctic island with the highest density of the biggest land predators anywhere on the planet?
The polar bear is the biggest land predator of them all. So imagine being marooned on an Arctic island, with the highest density of polar bears anywhere on the planet. Two men are willing to do just that. And to this tale of survival is added the touching story of an orphaned cub which is forced to go it alone in a world of ice. Time and again, the bears test the men’s endurance as they explore the majesty and splendour of the polar bear at its most wild and raw. http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/polar-bear-alcatraz/
3. Six Degrees
Examine the irreversible changes brought on by global warming
How is it that cheeseburgers consumed by Americans have a larger carbon footprint than all the SUVs in America? And how can we play our part in stopping climate change? http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/six-degrees/
4. Waking the Baby Mammoth
In this unique story of discovery, a perfectly preserved baby woolly mammoth suddenly is found, triggering an investigation into her life and death at the end of the Ice Age. http://natgeotv.com.au/tv/waking-the-baby-mammoth/
source:- http://natgeotv.com.au/ (italics added)

Here’s an interesting letter from 1928 on the rapid warming in the arctic in the 20’s:http://voksenlia.net/met/lyr/green_harbour.pdf
It doesn’t predict an ice free arctic, but it shows that the warming at that time seemed so alarming to scientists that some doubted that the measurements could be correct. Here’s a quick translation:
“I’m sending you a report of the monthly means in Green Harbour and an explanation by meteorologist Birkeland, where he states his opinion that there must have been a change in the thermometer setup, since the climate seems to have become milder during the recent years.”
“While not denying that there can be temperature fluctuation in the arctic regions lasting such a long time as this, I’d still like to ask you whether you’re aware of any change in the thermometer setup, or in anything else that could influence the temperatures that are recorded.”
The station in Green Harbour (Grønfjorden) is in Svalbard, was located near today’s Russian town Barentsburg. The reply was that there had been no changes.

By 2019, or possibly as early as 2013 according to Walt Meier.
Arctic will be ice-free within a decade
By Louise Gray, Environment Correspondent, The Telegraph, 7 April 2009http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html
“Walt Meier, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado where the research was carried out, said global warming had caused the ice to retreat dramatically in the last two decades. The six lowest recordings of sea ice cover were all recorded in the last six years.”
“He said thinner sea ice is less likely to survive the summer and predicted the Arctic Ocean will be effectively ice free sometime between 2020 and 2040, although it is possible it could happen as early as 2013.”
Roy

This may be of interest.
A quote by NSIDC:
Sometimes in everyday use, people associate “the North Pole” with the entire Arctic region. However, when scientists discuss the North Pole, they mean the geographic North Pole, a single point on the globe located at 90 degrees North. The term “Arctic” generally refers to a much larger region that encompasses the northern latitudes of the globe. The Arctic includes regions of Russia, North America, and Greenland, as well as the Arctic Ocean.
Early in the summer of 2008, there were reports that the ice at the North Pole may melt away completely during the summer of 2008. While the possibility existed that the geographic point at the North Pole could be ice-free in summer at some point, NSIDC scientists did not made an official statement as to whether this might happen. The scientific community has a range of predictions concerning when we could see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. It could be as early as 2013 or as late as 2100. NSIDC’s projections generally fall somewhere in the lower half of this range.http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html#north_pole

By 1930 i.e. 81 years ago?
Actually that is the inference drawn in retrospect from a report by the US Weather Bureau in 1922 according to the article below. In reply to a comment querying the source the administrator said that “the weather report was issued by the US weather Bureau in November 1922 and appeared in print in the Washington Post the same month.”
I have not seen the Washington Post article by my impression is that it did not mention a specific date.
Looks like the Arctic will be ice free by 1930http://www.simplygreencornwall.com/blog/?p=651
“The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and
in some places the seals are finding the water too hot,” according
to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from US Consul
Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and
explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate
conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.
“Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met
with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth
of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great
masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones,
the report continued, while at many points well-known glaciers
have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are
found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and
smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being
encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.”
—US WEATHER BUREAU, 1922
Roy

Professor Olav Orheim with his doctoral degree in glaciology is mentioned above. This is from an interview with him, published 23.01.2008 kl. 08:04, in Norwegian, in the leading (and sole) Norwegian technological weekly):http://www.tu.no/miljo/article132039.ece
He states that the Arctic will be ice-free this summer, but after all, it [huge exclamation marks and laughter and applause here] depends on the weather!
This is another one about an expedition that is embarking on a voyage to the Arctic in order to find out how quickly it all happens, published 30.10.2007 kl. 08:52:http://www.tu.no/miljo/article118638.ece
They state that it may happen in 16 years time or it may happen within 2100.
There are many more such articles with various degrees of scariness and “if we don’t do something” and surprising consequences – like ice melting will give more drought, but the absurdity of it all made me reluctant to include more.
By all means, the Norwegian media have released thousands of such articles during the last years.

Popular Science – 1923:
“Is the North Pole going to melt entirely? Are the Arctic regions warning up, with prospect of a great climate change in that part of the world? Science (says “Popular Science”) is asking these questions.”http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/37303533?

I enjoyed reading Wil’s post, I remember the global cooling predictions from the 60’s/70’s but was not aware that it was just panic repeating itself.
The whole point that the warmists are missing (and some of the sceptics) is that a long term trend in climate change cannot be determined in less than say 50 years. To state that one given weather event is due to climate change is nonsensical because extremes of weather have happened throughout history.The longer you wait the greater are the chances that extreme cold or heat will occur, as will more powerful hurricanes and tornadoes. Likewise with non-weather events such as tsumani, volcanoes and earthquakes.
Best of luck with analysing all the information Anthony, I don’t envy you, but I think that WUWT contributors have done you proud!!

Not to rain TOO much on the parade, but it is important to read the predictions carefully.
* Do they predict the entire Arctic will be ice-free?
* Do they predict the entire Arctic will be mostly ice-free?
* Do they predict the North Pole will be ice-free?
* Do they predict the North Pole will some open water?
* Do they predict the Northwest Passage will be open?
Glancing thru the links, I see some of that seem to match all the different criteria. For example, the North Pole did come relatively close to having open water (interspersed with ice) in 2007. It would not take TOO much more melting to get the Pole itself ice-free even though that would leave a great deal of ice in the Arctic Sea as a whole.
Heck, at least one of the old articles was addressing the melting of GLACIERS in Alaska and Norway, not sea ice! The second-hand reports in newspapers and press releases of scientific information are notoriously inaccurate, and I would be very wary of using such sources.

LOL Anthony! I don’t even have to post a thing! This is one fine team you have here.
What I find most impressive and that pulls the rug out from under the warmists are the many first hand reports from the 1800’s and early 1900’s that describe a dearth of ice in the Arctic. Funny, I don’t recall all life on earth disrupted then. How come it is expected to be disrupted if the ice melts in the future? How come those South Pacific islands were there then, as they are now? The links that are particularly hilarious are the ones that use the words, “for the first time in history!”
I think it has something to do with progressive thought that doesn’t require one to learn from history. Their world begins now and any change is necessarily bad because it suits their need for crisis resulting in their control of the rest of us.
A big round of applause to all of you!!!
As a side note, not a single troll! Amazing how they scurry into the darkness when faced with overwhelming evidence that what they spew is unadulterated crap!!!

Well, let’s not forget the other side of the equation, with skeptical experts such as Joe Bastardi saying essentially that the Arctic will never be ice free, and is essentially in the process of recovery. On this very blog, regarding 2011’s sea ice melt and recovery, last December he said:
“The ice is coming back, will do so in forward and back steps, with forward defeating the back steps. I am on record as saying we will be back to 1977 levels by 2030. The real problem would be is if there is no corresponding drop in the southern hemisphere sea ice. Like the 70s, cries of ice age will start again. So my forecast for next years melt is for 5.5.”
Sorry Joe, but you’re really missing the boat on this years melt. I hope someone didn’t pay you for the forecast.
But Anthony, I suppose the point of your research is to show how foolish and wrong the warmists have been about their ice free predictions, and that’s all well and good, but it misses the bigger issue about trying to predict the future state of a system undergoing non-linear changes.

Anthony,
Another equally important preparation for Gore’s Climate Change onslaught would be to have at hand documentation on
earlier climate incidents similar to the ones in the last few years.
E.g. the Arctic melt in 1922 (and earlier documented instances), tornadoes history, drought history, etc.

@R. Gates
You don’t find it interesting that Bastardi appears to subscibe to the historical model, that the ice forms and retreats on a regular basis? That perhaps he looks at his historical model to base his theory on future activity? True, he may be wrong.
But, I’d be more willing to listen to Joe than to people who basically make stuff up and cry wolf!

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/amcelhinney/2009/08/19/exclusive-lies-revealed-greenpeace-leader-admits-arctic-ice-exaggeration/#more-207706
Greenpeace Leader Admits Arctic Ice Exaggeration
by Phelim McAleer & Ann McElhinney‏
The outgoing leader of Greenpeace has admitted his organization’s recent claim that the Arctic Ice will disappear by 2030 was “a mistake.” Greenpeace made the claim in a July 15 press release entitled “Urgent Action Needed As Arctic Ice Melts,” which said there will be an ice-free Arctic by 2030 because of global warming.
Under close questioning by BBC reporter Stephen Sackur on the “Hardtalk” program, Gerd Leipold, the retiring leader of Greenpeace, said the claim was wrong.
“I don’t think it will be melting by 2030. … That may have been a mistake,” he said.
Link to Video
19 August 2009

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco
Arctic summer melting in 2007 set new records
More details
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/09/arctic-ocean-ice-free-summer-by-2015.php
Arctic Ocean Ice-Free in Summer by 2015, New Research Shows – Greenland Ice Sheet Shows Rapid Losses, Too
by Matthew McDermott, New York, NY on 09. 1.09
Science & Technology (science)
photo: Nick Russill via flickr
Anyone keeping up on the pace of Arctic summer sea ice melting, take note: Mongabay is reporting on new research presented by the National Space Institute at Technical University of Denmark (and others) which says that if current melting trends continue, the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summer by 2015:
These latest estimates are based on new data on the rate of rapid thinning of Arctic sea ice — 2004-2008 saw a total decline of 67cm. (More on this from NASA.)
What’s more, scientists reported “rapid increases” in the amount of ice lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet — 60% of which is coming from icebergs calving off glaciers. The remaining amount is coming from increased surface melting, which is no longer confined to the southern part of the ice sheet — the amount of ice accumulating in the inland part of the ice sheet is starting to decline as well.
Read more: Mongabay
Arctic Ice Melt
Arctic Sea Ice Melt 20 Years Ahead of Schedule, Scientist Maintains Tipping Point Assertion
NASA Confirms Dramatic Thinning of Arctic Sea Ice – Multi-year Ice the Size of Alaska Lost
Arctic Just Witnessed Fastest August Ice Retreat in History

Nick Shaw says:
July 17, 2011 at 10:12 am
@R. Gates
You don’t find it interesting that Bastardi appears to subscibe to the historical model, that the ice forms and retreats on a regular basis? That perhaps he looks at his historical model to base his theory on future activity? True, he may be wrong.
But, I’d be more willing to listen to Joe than to people who basically make stuff up and cry wolf.
____
I think Joe knows certain things well, but knows nothing about sea ice or what is happening in the Arctic. He is assuming that historical cycles of climate will constantly repeat themselves, just like the seasons do. This is why Joe makes a better weatherman than a climatologist. We’ve got an atmosphere on this planet whose composition is like nothing the planet has seen in at least a million years. Joe seems to discount this, and that’s why he probably ought to stick with weather forecasting, and leave longer term climate changes to others.

R.Gates, based on whatever you have posted in WUWT so far, you certainly know nothing about any relaities related to Temperatures, predictions, calculations or for that matter anything related to empirical evidence when it comes to Climate Science. All you have displayed is a totally blinkered and blind obedience to AGW theory not supported by any facts or logic. Joe Bastardii knows a lot more than what you’ve ever known in your life regarding weather and predictions.

Venter says:
July 17, 2011 at 7:16 pm
R.Gates, based on whatever you have posted in WUWT so far, you certainly know nothing about any relaities related to Temperatures, predictions, calculations or for that matter anything related to empirical evidence when it comes to Climate Science. All you have displayed is a totally blinkered and blind obedience to AGW theory not supported by any facts or logic. Joe Bastardii knows a lot more than what you’ve ever known in your life regarding weather and predictions
____
I realize that Joe B. is a hero among some of the skeptical faithful, and so my challenging his credibility in predicting the direction that sea ice is headed in the longer-term amounts to heresy. Joe has yet to prove he understands anything about the dynamics of Arctic sea ice. He seems to assume that some cyclical ocean or solar cycles can explain everything that’s going to happen. He discounts the 40% increase in CO2 we’ve had over the past few centuries. This of course, is reason enough he’s a hero to the skeptical faithful, but IMO, he knows nothing about where the Arctic sea ice is headed in the longer term. He keeps looking for a recovery, that just seems quite reluctant to happen.

Going through my “keepers”, found this one: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php
I have no idea if someone already mentioned this one.
Good Luck.Reply: Why didn’t you look? Too much trouble to use the search function on your browser? It turns out no one has previously, which is ok, since the link you gives goes to an error page. ~ ctm

R.Gates, it’s not about Joe Bastardi being hero. It’s about you not being trustworthy about about anything you say with regards to Climate and Climate Science. That’s the specific point I make. You are a water carrier for bad science and unethical practices adopted by the AGW faithful.

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