If I told you the Thunder would arrive at the ACC without the services of All Stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, have just eight healthy players and played the night before you’d guarantee a win right?

Well, consider the fact the Thunder lost a close one to the Clippers, beat Denver with an 8-man unit (just one point guard) and finished the week ranked ten spots higher than the Raptors defensively.

Monday, Reggie Jackson returned to the Thunders’ line-up in the blow-out loss to Brooklyn only to see another starter get hurt; Andre Roberson went down with a left foot sprain. As we discussed in this week’s podcast I was curious to see how Roberson (a younger version of Thabo Sefalosha) would affect DeMar DeRozan, but post game Scott Brooks said he won’t play tonight.

For the Raptors, the good news is this game comes on the heels of their first loss, so an undermanned Thunder team should offer the perfect elixir to fix some bad habits common through the first 3-games this season.

Focus on defense: opposition has shot an average of 48% through 3-games. Toronto has stated their goal is to finish top 5, but entered the week ranked 23rd on defense.

True, we have a winning record and are a long way from April, however there is no time like the present to nip these bad habits in the bud. Coach Casey and the team can opine on the missed free throws, absence of Amir Johnson or the bench still learning to function as a unit costing us the game in Miami. The reality is the Raptors lacked effort, consistent defense and execution of basic fundamentals.

Line-up Break Down:

Lowry/Jackson:
Jackson’s presence on the court Monday resulted in the Thunder abandoning the one thing that had kept them in 3 out of 4 games: defense. Jackson will be tasked with distributing the ball and carrying the majority of the offensive load. Of note, Jackson was one of the third-year players not offered a contract extension, and enters this season intent on collecting a max (or near max) contract as well as showcasing his talent as a starter.

Look for Lowry to lead the charge in correcting the early season bad habits. Lowry will be tasked with initiating ball movement, getting everyone rolling early as well as establishing defensive intensity. Also, factor in Jackson was forced to play almost 42 minutes in the loss to Brooklyn due to the lack of guards available.

DeRozan/Telfair:
This is a nightmare for the Thunder for copious reasons; Telfair joins Jackson as the only other healthy point guard available. He’ll be moved into the starting line-up at the shooting guard position though due to Roberson’s injury, the result of which should equate to DeRozan scoring at will.

Ross/Jones:
If I had to pick one Raptor who needs a break-out game Terrence Ross tops my list. His assignment will be to show up on both ends of the court, shut down early scoring surprise Perry Jones (24 PPG, 44% from behind the arc the last 3-games) and keep him active defending.

Johnson/Ibaka:
Amir Johnson stated he’d be back in the line-up Tuesday which is great news for Toronto based on the lack of energy and poor display on the defensive end Sunday. Ibaka is a shot-blocking nightmare who is equally adept at scoring in the paint and from range. Alongside Jackson he represents the primary scoring threat.

Valanciunas/Adams:
Two talented young studs who’ll no doubt be amped to out-do one another. Since Adams isn’t about to drift out to shoot perimeter shots he offers the type of center Valanciunas prefers to face. In preseason Valanciunas bested Adams forcing him to foul out in 24 minutes, but he’ll need to win the rebounding battle this time round.

Bench:Vasquez, Williams, Patterson, Hansbrough, J. Johnson/ Collison, Perkins, Thomas:
The Thunder will host a bench of three barring additions via the NBA Hardship Exception or if Grant Jerrett returns. Sheer numbers dictate that a concerted effort by our bench to lower the hammer early and often should wear out the depleted Thunder.

James Johnson was the best Raptor in the loss Sunday and is giving Casey ample reason to consider additional playing time. Patrick Patterson is beyond due for a break-out performance; his basketball I.Q. has not been truly reflected through the first 3-games leaving me wondering if he’s still injured or just in an early shooting slump.

Bottom line:
Toronto has 4-games this week including two versus division rivals, so tonight offers a unique opportunity. The key will be to get out to an early lead so the starters can get essential rest prior to Wednesday’s match in Bean Town which will feature Toronto’s fourth game in five nights.

In a perfect world the Raptors:

Have a huge lead before half

Ross and Patterson have break-out nights, especially from behind the arc where Raptors rank 26

Apply a full 48-minute defensive effort

Gather 25+ assists

Demonstrate their killer instinct: step on Thunders’ throat early and don’t let them up for air.

The Thunder will be playing their fifth game in seven nights, so exhaustion has to be mounting. While it’s early in the season the Raptors can utilize this unprecedented opportunity to take the next step by beating the teams they should and capitalize on the ability to garner an advantage to rest core members prior to a back to back.

The line has Toronto favored by 11.5; I say Raptors take care of business early.

Enjoy the game, and make sure to drop in afterward for our post game Quick Reaction.

It’s been tough to pin down who the Raptors are this season from game to game. The names on the jerseys and the 5-man lineups that have played together have been under so much flux in the last two weeks that it’s tough to expect anything else. In the last week we’ve seen the Raptors lose in unimpressive fashion to a bad Bobcats team at home, and win against a tough Mavericks team on the road. Your guess is as good as mine as to which Raptors team comes out to play today, but there does seem to be something to quality opponents bringing out better focus and effort on the court. Which is good, because the Raptors can not afford any stretches of undisciplined or uninspired play against the Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook led OKC Thunder.

Some teams take nights off against teams they know they’re better than, which often as not surprises them with an L on the record column. The Thunder are not one of those teams. Their only loss this season to a non-title contender was the second game of the season against a spry Minnesota team without Russell Westbrook. Since the lockout, the Thunder have only lost 12 games against non-playoff teams. Of those 12, 4 of those losses were against teams like the post lockout Kevin Love-Ricky Rubio Timberwolves who would have been playoff teams if not for injuries later on in the season, and another was the last game of the season when the Thunder essentially rested their entire starting lineup. So we’re left with 7 losses in 3 seasons to non-playoff teams. OKC simply does not take nights off.

What I’m getting at here is that this is the Lloyd Christmas “So you’re telling me we’ve got a chance!” part of the breakdown. The result isn’t a foregone conclusion, but if you’re short money for last minute Christmas shopping, putting what money you have on the Raptors moneyline is almost guaranteed to end up leaving you as that broke guy who gives everyone handmade ‘gift certificates.’ Despite what the wisdom of Lloyd Christmas suggests, an IOU is not as good as money.

Having said that, the Thunder are not the juggernaut they were with Harden, or even the one they were with Kevin Martin in that role. The Thunder are divided into two teams. There is Kevin Durant and Jeremy Lamb, who have both been sensational from beyond the 3-point line, and then there is everyone else, who have been sensationally bad from deep. Thabo Sefolosha, Derek Fisher, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka have gone a combined 72 for 253. That’s 28.4%, which isn’t DJ Augustin bad, but is exactly what DeMar DeRozan shot from beyond the arc last season. Remember your reaction to every single 2012-2013 DeRozan 3 point attempt? That’s how OKC fans feel every time someone not named Durant or Lamb spots-up. OKC is not the 3-point machine they’ve been in the past. The Raptors have let opponents shoot 37% from 3 this season, which has been a product of the occasional zone defense, freelancing for steals on man coverage and a general apathy towards the defensive suggestions poor coach Casey was screaming from the sideline to start the season. The defensive attitude has improved, and the result is a slightly better than average defensive rating. Less Steve Novak has meant less zone defense, and less open jumpers.

Terrence Ross has been starting at small forward. I’ve enjoyed the minutes from Ross, whose stock I’m still buying up. Any minutes on the court help his development, so I’ll take them. But he doesn’t play like a forward on either end of the court, and the Raptors do not play a position-less Miami Heat style. Matchups matter. Terrence Ross can play that spot, but the larger forwards like Durant make it clear that Ross is a guard, not a forward. Having said that, if ‘he can’t guard Kevin Durant’ was an argument against a player’s value, there would only be six players in the league to have a discussion about. Expect Kevin Durant to do whatever kind of Kevin Durant things he wants to.

The good news though: Grievis Vasquez is faster than Derek Fisher! Vasquez not being a defensive liability is exciting, because General Greivis can do some very entertaining things on the offensive end of the court, especially out of the pick-and-roll. Kendrick Perkins and Derek Fisher trying to guard pick and rolls together is every bit as much defensive basketball schadenfreude as Steve Novak. It’s like watching hurricane news coverage of people trying to walk against category 3 winds and rain.

Kendrick Perkins is fascinating. Did he really think that his NBA grump title belt was under fire when he tossed Joakim Noah out of the Thunder change room this week? He sounds exactly like an angry old man yelling from his front porch at those damn neighborhood kids to get off his lawn. You don’t need to defend that title Kendrick; you are the undisputed champion of sour looks, angrily swearing as you storm off to the bench without making eye contact with any teammates and confusing competitiveness with taking absolutely everything too seriously. What is the over-under for Perkins vs. Hansbrough awkward and/or hard fouls followed by intense head shaking and stinkfaces? Both players average 18 minutes a game. If we assume that they’re on the court for half of that time together, that’s 9 minutes. The over/under has to be 9, right?

Finally, my main focus in watching the Raptors through this road trip is on the only player promised to be on next year’s team: Jonas Valanciunas. Watching to see what Jonas Valanciunas shows up and how the Raptors decide to use him remains one of the more interesting storylines from game to game. You can guarantee that one of the Raptor’s first two possessions will always be a Valanciunas post-up. They go to him twice in the first two minutes, and then usually wait until the start of the third quarter to hit him on the block again, regardless of whether his possessions look good or bad. The variance between the effectiveness of Jonas’ post game from night to night is notable. He let’s himself get pushed a few feet out of the low post before he can get the ball, and his fake-pump-fake is a drinking game, not a basketball move. Everybody knows he isn’t taking that shot, so when he bends his knees for the pump fake, then fakes like he’s going to put the ball on the floor, then goes back to the pump fake, and then does nothing (all the while with his defender waiting patiently with complete certainty that he isn’t going to do anything), take a shot. Because you know he isn’t going to. Which is too bad, because Jonas has touch, speed, size and co-ordination near the basket. It’s very easy for him to score there; he just needs to believe that and do it. And then he’ll need the team to give him more than two attempts in a half at it, but baby steps, baby steps.

Now consider that Player B has spent his entire career playing with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden, while player A has slugged it out with Andrea Bargnani, DeMar DeRozan, Jose Calderon and Kyle Lowry. I’m not trying to besmirch the good names of anyone in that latter list who hasn’t appeared in a string of hilariously bad Primo pasta and sauce commercials, just to say that player B, Serge Ibaka, has had an incredible boost in quality shots, wide open spacing and meaningful experience from playing with 3 different 1st team All NBA quality players. Player B, Amir Johnson, has put up equally impressive numbers while having played more time on the court with Sonny Weems than he ever has with a 1st, 2nd or 3rd All NBA quality player. That matters. The lesson here, as always, is that Amir Johnson is really good, and we should all appreciate him. Now go forth, and enjoy the game.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2013/12/22/youre-telling-theres-chance/feed/41Gameday: Raptors vs Thunder – Dec. 3/10http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/12/03/gameday-raptors-vs-thunder-december-3-2010/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/12/03/gameday-raptors-vs-thunder-december-3-2010/#commentsFri, 03 Dec 2010 14:46:40 +0000http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=22118The Raptors look to build on the big win Wednesday against the Wizard as the Thunder roll into town tonight, both teams will have their guns blasting; should be a good one.

Sorry I wasn’t able to do a pre-game on Wednesday, I literally had zero time to sleep much less put something together for us to talk about. The Raptors seem to be 2-0 in games I don’t handle the pre-game duties for; just putting it out there.

It wasn’t even that they beat the Wizards, Arse had it right when he said they inflicted violence on them. It was payback for the loss the Wizard handed sans John Wall; side note: it always kills me when you play a team, a mediocre one, who’s missing their best player and they beat you anyways. Regardless, the Raptors were able to exact some revenge, without Evans, and run them into the ground (a split on the season isn’t so bad now that I look back on it).

I’m super stoked about tonight’s game. I’ve seen three Thunder games already this season, and these guys are fun as hell to watch, and so are the Raptors making this a game I’ve been looking forward too. They have two of the best players (or the two best, depending on who you talk too – I’m one of these guys) at their position and have a bunch of talented kids on the rookie salary scale playing out of their minds (their payroll is under $59mil). At some point, this team will have to start taking a hard look at which of them they keep, rest assured, Durant and Westbrook will there for a long-long time.

I got stood up by the Thunder blogger, but here are the questions I sent his way:

38-15-9, I literally fired up league pass broadband to watch this game this morning, and WOW! Durant has missed three games (so far) this season, and Westbrook has led them to three victories in his absence. I have him ranked as the the best point guard in the league, especially when you consider he’s still on the rookie salary scale. Comment.

Durant’s three point shooting has dipped considerably, while his shot attempts have increased; what’s going on?

Presti has done a masterful job at helm. The teams payroll is $58mill, and with all the rookie scale salaries being paid, this team looks to be in excellent shape for the future. When all these contracts start coming up for resigning, who gets left out?

When does Presti win executive of the year?

Injury Report

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Peja Stojakovic – Day to day

Oklahoma City
Kevin Durant – Knee, Probable
Nenad Krstic – Probable

Match-ups

Point Guard
It starts and ends with Westbrook. Durant might get all the press, but Westbrook was able to lead the Thunder to a 3-0 record in Kevin’s absence; that’s something to talk about and be scared of. Westbrook is really good. He’s literally taking it up to an elite-like level this season. The guy is super athletic, able to easily penetrate and get to the line (9.5 attempts a game). Scoring? 24.6 a game. Playmaking? 8.6 dimes. Rebounding? 5.6. Defense? He’s big, strong and fast aka elite defender. So there you have it, a perfect point guard to run this OKC offense. There are some kinks in the armour though. For all the scoring opportunities Russell creates for his team, the Thunder as a whole are terrible at sharing the ball, averaging 18.3 assists a game (good for second worst in the league). As well, Westbrooks jumper is a bit a lot shaky, and has been known to force things on more than a few occasions.

I would suggest letting him take as many long J’s as he wants, and collapse on him as early as possible to avoid him geting deep into the paint. As you can tell from his shot chart, the further out he gets, the more he misses. What you may not know is that Westbrook is pretty brutal at finishing at the rim as well (he’s actually generally a poor shooter, just able to get to the line a lot), where he only converted 49% of his attempts. Help defense off the dribble will be crucial to keep this kid under control. At the rim, I like both Bargnani’s, Johnson’s and Davis’ length to bother him. Notice I didn’t say anything about Calderon; the fact is, he’s playing well the last few games, but grossly outclassed. If he can hit his shots, move the ball and lead the break, it’s really all we can expect cause he’s not stopping Westbrook.Edge: Oklahoma City

Shooting Guard
The Thunder literally STOLE Sefolosha from the Bulls. It wasn’t even fair how cheaply they picked him up for – a 2nd rounder or two…Presti is ridiculous. Thabo is one of the better defenders at the shooting guard in the league, but is really no threat on the offensive end. DeMar…the optimist in me says he follows a very strong bounce-back game against the Wizards with another one tonight, but the cynic in me thinks he wont. DeMar still needs a little bit more time to be able to really get after an elite-level defender like Thabo, and take it to him in different ways to get him into foul trouble. Yes, he will have a couple big moves, but anything he provides at this point, to me anyways, will be gravy.

Defensively, the further he can keep Thabo from the rim the better. Thabo will hit the occasional jumper, but that’s the plan, and you gotta stick to it. I like the dynamic that Barbosa will bring tonight, since he pushes the ball so effectively in transition. Barbosa could look to get Thabo in foul trouble, forcing him to lighten up on defense against him and DeRozan. I’d normally like DeMar to do that, but he hasn’t shown much promise in drawing contact off the dribble at any consistent clip.Edge: Toronto

Small Forward
So in my fantasy league, we had a $200 budget to buy 13 players for our teams. I spent 90 0f that on one guy: Kevin Durant. For the most part, I follow him through my fantasy league, and the one thing that has struck me is how consistently amazing he is. Every game he can be counted on to score 25pts+ grab 6rebs+, get to the line a lot and convert a lot of those bad boys. I don’t even know what it’s like to watch a player like that on a game-to-game basis. Actually makes me sad that we’ve never had a player as close to Durant since VC used to give a crap. KD is a game-time decision, but if he’s out, Green is more than capable of filling this slot, giving the Thunder front court a pretty big/mobile dynamic.

If Durant is playing, Sonny will need to play off him a bit and let him shoot long jumpers and 3s to his heart content and hope he doesn’t find his range. If Green is in, I expect Kleiza to get a bit more burn as he has the size to bump him on both ends of the floor.

If Durant is feeling it early, and Julian Wright doesn’t get 12min+, Triano needs to be questioned vigilantly. Not saying Julian is going to shut down KD, but he has the best shot at slowing him down with his length and athleticism.Edge: Thunder

Power Forward
While he may have come back a bit too early from his injury, Ed Davis brought the goods, and looked damn good doing it. Ibaka and Green are a formidable duo, providing a one-two punch of scoring and defense. If Amir and Ed didn’t have to worry about the Thunders ridiculous dribble penetration, then they would be able to hold the fort down. However, they have to worry about the wings getting beat off the dribble, and Bargnani’s inability to rotate on the defense, all the while worrying about their own man. If Green and Ibaka come out on top tonight, it won’t be because they outplayed our guys, it will be because they had little help.

Edge: Even

Center
20pts 11rebs 2blks tonight is what I’m looking to Bargnani for. With Evans out, he HAS to pick up some of the rebounding slack, if not a great deal of it. Krstic really shouldn’t be a factor tonic, and Collison isn’t fully healthy. I got nothing else here, sick of Bargnani just being a one-trick pony (note: being able to score in different ways doesn’t mean you have more than one trick; it all rolls up to scoring, nothing else).

Edge: Toronto

Keys to the Game

Offensive Rebounding
The Thunder absolutely excel when Westbrook has a head of steam in the open court. A lot of that can be traced back to their rebounding, where they are 13th in rebounding in the league (Raptors are 12th). The break always starts off of bad/missed shots, and with Evans out, the Raptors aren’t as effective on the offensive glass. Bargnani needs to make extra effort on the offensive glass, and help Amir, Ed and Joey tonight or this could get ugly fast.

Don’t Get Into an Early Hole
Its not that the Thunder can shut the Raptors down defensively, it’s that their offense can run us into the red rather quickly. The Thunder have a lot of weapons, and if Durant is healthy, will have a loaded bazooka aimed at the Raptors basket. Expending energy on catching up will only create the illusion that the Raptors are playing hard, when in fact, the key ingredients of focus, execution and defense will be left in the pot that Triano will be left stirring wondering WTF went wrong,

Perimeter Defense
Bargnani, Johnson and Davis can’t have wave-after-wave of Westbrook and Durant coming at them if the Raptors want to put themselves in a position to take this game; it just doesn’t work like that. Folks have to hedge on screens, play defense with their feet (and not their hands), and make the Thunder beat us with the jumper. Much easier said than done, but Triano will need to play the lineups for there to be any hope; Julian Wright for one should get some burn.