John vs. Oscar: American Idol Top 9 Elimination PredictionsWednesday, April 02, 2008

American Idolhas been nearly impossible to predict this season, and last night's Dolly Parton mentored episode isn't making things any easier. The episode featured top to bottom solid performances, and amateur elimination prognosticators like myself are left scratching their heads. Who will go home? Who should go home? Will Ramiele Malubay's mind-bending streak of avoiding the bottom three come to an end? Will a memorable song choice keep Syesha Mercado out of the bottom? Will Kristy Lee Cook survive elimination by the skin of her teeth yet again? In our fourth edition of John vs. Oscar, the two of us are in agreement over eliminations for the first time this season. It's actually fitting, as John is out of town today and, thus, we were unable to record our discussion. Thank goodness for the magic of e-mail.

Before I say my piece, let's hear what John had to say (sent to me via e-mail last night):

First, what does Ramiele have to do to drop to the bottom three? She has yet to deliver a good or even somewhat memorable performance, yet every week she has this mysterious block of fans who must vote for her en masse. Hopefully the competition is stiffening up to a point where she finally drops.

The judges praised Carly, but they did the same thing the week she was in the bottom three. I suspect last week was a "bounce back." That's when a person is in the bottom, and the fans get so worried they double up their voting efforts the next week, which I predict will keep Jason Castro safe this week. But she went in the middle and sang a slow, forgettable song, so she could be in trouble.

Finally, my bold prediction is that Kristy Lee Cook goes home in, ironically, the country week. You'd think she'd have the support of the country viewers who flocked to their TVs to see Dolly Parton, but if you parse the words, even KLC knew that Dolly just didn't like her, feigning interest during their rehearsal and paying her a hollow compliment. "You'll make your mom proud," and even KLC was like, "Screw my mama, I already got her vote, what about you and the rest of America?" It was actually hilarious if you just read between the lines. We've predicted KLC to go before, but this time, I think it could really happen.

OK, I'm with John on a few things. Obviously, we've both chosen Kristy Lee to go home. He has his reasons, but mine are even simpler: she's going to be eliminated by default. Ramiele seems to be the popular choice for elimination, but you don't often see somebody go a month without touching the bottom three straight to getting booted. Won't happen tomorrow either – next week will be Ramiele's time to go. Syesha gave a divisive performance, but it was a memorable one because everyone knows that song. So she's out of the running. Carly was too good and her fans still have that bottom three scare from two weeks ago in their minds. Castro stepped up and gave his best performance in weeks, so it won't be him. The only contender left is Kristy Lee.

My surprise pick is Brooke in the bottom three. I think she'll end up there because she went first last night (which never helps with the voting), didn't receive much praise and I could see her voting base getting a little lazy. I think it'll be either her or Carly in 7th place, but Carly was just a bit better last night.

Let's end with some parting thoughts from John, with my rebuttals that John will be unable to respond to:

While Syesha Mercado couldn't compare to Whitney Houston, she chose the most recognizable song of the night, and did a pretty good job, and I think that goes a long way. She won't even be in the bottom three, let alone eliminated. However, it's still the fourth best version of the song I've heard, behind Dolly, Whitney and Lorelai Gilmore on karaoke night.

Couldn't help a Gilmore Girls reference, could you, John? I agree with everything you said, however.
I love David Cook and Brooke White, I want them both in the finals, but they both slipped a bit tonight, I must admit. Honestly, I would not be entirely surprised if one made a shocking appearance in the bottom three.

There's no way David Cook will be in the bottom three. He's got a huge fan base.

I hate David Archuleta. Way back during Hollywood Week, I started the "I Hate David Archuleta" anti-fan club. But dang it, the kid did his thing last night, and he did it perfectly. I think the best thing to do is pretend he doesn't exist and just play "Who Will Be the Runner-Up on American Idol?" The kid is gonna win, and if you don't believe me, wait until he gets to sing "Imagine" again when he chooses his best past song during the finale. Game over, man.

John and I agree on two things: 1) We don't like David Archuleta, and 2) David Archuleta is going to win American Idol.