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Are negative rates helping? These three charts suggest not

Desperate times have prompted desperate measures. But is the extreme medicine working?

08/18/2016

Savers and investors need economies to grow: it’s good for company profits that flow back to investors and it helps keep interest rates stable for savers. This all makes people feel wealthier and a self-perpetuating cycle begins.

Central banks are trying everything to return economies to the steady economic growth enjoyed before the financial crisis. Most have adopted low interest rate policies, some have imposed negative rates.

But is this the answer to the world's growth problems? These charts tell a story.

Are low and negative interest rates working?

The graph below shows the economic performance of the six countries - Denmark, Sweden, Japan, the Eurozone, Switzerland and Hungary - that have so far adopted negative rates. The data runs to the end of 2015 for each. Most have only gone negative on rates in the past year but all have had exceptionally low rates since the financial crisis.

Trends shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to provide any guarantee of future results.​

Out of the six countries only the Swiss economy is bigger per capita in dollar terms than it was prior to the credit crisis in 2007.

However, even Switzerland’s economy shrunk in dollar terms in the year after it adopted negative rates, in December 2014.

Denmark has had negative rates the longest. Despite an initial boost, its economy was the second worst performer in our list, behind Hungary which only adopted negative rates in March 2016.

The outlook for growth remains bleak: the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts the economies of its member countries will grow by 1.8% this year and by 2.1% in 2017, and it keeps cutting these estimates. Interest rates are likely to stay low and potentially go lower. In the UK, money markets don’t expect the bank rate to rise until 2022.

With the obvious effect on savings rates, it would be understandable for savers to look elsewhere.

How have negative rates impacted markets?

It’s not just official bank rates that are low or negative. The effect, together with electronic money printing programs, has rippled out into bond markets. Bond prices have risen and their yields, which have an inverse relationship with prices, have fallen.

More than a third of the global government bond market – 37% - now has a negative yield and around three quarters yields less than 1%. Making money from bonds or from savings, where rates are affected by bond yields, becomes very difficult.

This helps increase demand for shares as investors go in search of higher returns. But the story is not so simple.

The graph below shows the performance of the MSCI Europe stockmarket index since the European Central Bank cut rates to negative in June 2014.It tells us three things:

Since adopting negative rates the European shares have gone almost nowhere, despite an initial surge;

Cyclical stocks (those that perform best when the economy recovers), such as banks and commodities, which should benefit from low rates and loose monetary policy, have fallen;

The opinions stated include some forecasted views. We believe that we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee that any forecasts or opinions will be realized.

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