Hung parliaments, Brexit and the Bobby Ewing scenario

For those who still want to stop Brexit, the last, best hope after the general election is a hung parliament followed by a Remainer-led national government. We turn to classic American soap opera Dallas for inspiration and the odds

For all centrist dads, arch Remoaners, one-nation Tories and Europhile lefties, there survives a fantasy of a second referendum on Europe. The notion of undoing what half the country feels to be the madness of Brexit shimmers, mirage-like, on the horizon of the political desert, out of reach now but, perhaps, if the fates allowed, still worth clinging to.

And, if the chips fall a certain way during and after the general election, there is still the possibility of undoing Brexit completely, via what we are calling “The Bobby Ewing Scenario”.

For those ignorant of classic Eighties TV, here’s what this means. Bobby Ewing was a character in Dallas, a soap opera about Texas oil barons that set a template for Eighties excess and aspiration. At the end of series eight Bobby Ewing died in a car crash, but after some contractual negotiation he reappeared, without warning, in the shower in the final scene of series nine, at which point the entire year was written off as the cheese dream of his wife, Pam.

Britain wakes up the morning after the second EU referendum and decides, from that moment on, to speak of 2016-19 only as 'the unpleasantness'

This is the last, best hope for Remainers: that at some point next year they will awake, find Donald Tusk in the shower and realise Brexit was just a nightmare – awful, yes, but over. As if that weren’t enough, the Bobby Ewing Scenario would also mean the end of the twin horrors of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.

The odds on a Bobby Ewing Scenario:

The first thing that will have to happen is that the Conservatives fail to secure a parliamentary majority of 326 and cannot form a minority government, resulting in a hung parliament. Johnson resigns.

Hung parliament 3/1

Corbyn is also unable to form a minority government because he cannot secure a working relationship with the SNP and/or the Liberal Democrats. He resigns.

Corbyn resigns as Labour leader 3/1

Keir Starmer is the new prime minister 28/1

Starmer makes an alliance with the other parties who favour a second referendum in a temporary national government. The EU grant a further extension.

Labour/Lib Dem/SNP coalition form the next government 22/1

The new government introduces legislation for a second EU vote.

Second referendum 3/1

Remain wins the second referendum 52 per cent to 48 per cent and Article 50 is revoked.

Remain wins 1/4

Britain wakes up the morning after the second EU referendum and decides, from that moment on, to speak of 2016-19 as little as possible and only then as “the unpleasantness”.

We have listed odds in fractional format, but this election tracker from betting aggregator bonuscodebets.co.uk displays the prices described above as an implied probability in percentage terms, showing trends and fluctuations both in real time and historically.