Cory Booker

June 12, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest poll finds Jeb Bush leading the field for the Republican nomination in 2016. Bush picks up 30% of the vote from likely Republican primary voters, with Marco Rubio coming in second with just 14%. The only other person to get double-digit support is Rand Paul with 11%. Bush leads among voters self-described as moderate, somewhat conservative, and very conservative.

However, a potential match-up between Bush and Hillary Clinton is a dead heat right now, with Clinton picking up 46% to Bush’s 45%. This comes despite his high favorability rating of 51% with 35% unfavorable, and Clinton’s almost even rating with 46% favorable and 47% unfavorable. Despite the fact that Bush represents the toughest test for Clinton in Florida, 50% of voters think he should not run in 2016 compared to only 35% that think he should. This is a better result than Marco Rubio receives though, as 59% of voters think that Rubio should not run in 2016.

The other potential Republican match-ups with Clinton do not come nearly as close as Bush. Clinton leads Chris Christie 46/38, Ted Cruz 50/39, Mike Huckabee 48/41, Rand Paul 48/42, and Rubio 48/44. Clinton picks up a majority of both moderates and younger voters in all of these other match-ups.

There's much speculation about whether Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or both will seek the White House in 2016, but voters in their home state don't want either of them to run. Our new poll finds that just 35% of Floridians think Bush should run for President, to 50% who think he should sit it out. For Rubio the numbers are even less encouraging- only 27% of voters in the state think he should run with 59% opposed to a bid.

Both Bush and Rubio trail Hillary Clinton in their home state by small margins- Bush trails by a point at 46/45 and Rubio has a 4 point deficit at 48/44. Clinton has wider leads over the rest of the Republican field- 6 points over Rand Paul at 48/42, 7 points over Mike Huckabee at 48/41, 8 points over Chris Christie at 46/38, and 11 points over Ted Cruz at 50/39.

There are mixed messages when it comes to the Republican candidate field in Florida. Jeb Bush leads the full field with 30% to 14% for Rubio, 11% for Paul, 9% for Cruz, 8% for Christie, 7% for Huckabee and Scott Walker, 2% for Paul Ryan, and 1% for Bobby Jindal. Bush dominates among moderates and runs slightly ahead of Rubio with conservatives.

But when you ask Florida Republicans to choose just between Rubio and Bush, Rubio leads 45/41 based on his strength with voters who identify as 'very conservative.' In a field full of conservatives Bush leads because of his centrist support and because Rubio is not necessarily the first choice of conservative voters. But when you narrow the choices, conservatives are much more inclined to move to Rubio. This may presage what could happen to Bush if he runs in 2016- he may do better in earlier primaries with a packed field than he does once people start dropping out and creating a more clear ideological contrast.

There is nothing complicated about the Democratic picture- Clinton is the choice of 66% of primary voters followed by Elizabeth Warren at 8%, Joe Biden at 7%, Cory Booker at 5%, and Andrew Cuomo at 4%. Clinton polls over 60% with liberals, moderates, men, women, whites, African Americans, Hispanics, and voters in every age group.

Among potential 2016 Democratic presidential candidates, Clinton picks up a staggering 65% of the vote. The next closest is Pennsylvania’s own Joe Biden, who fails to even hit double digits in his home state. Farther down the line are Andrew Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren with 5% each.

On the Republican side of things, the story couldn’t be any more different, as five separate candidates pick up 10% or more of the primary vote. Pennsylvania’s former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, however, was not one of those five. Chris Christie leads all potential candidates with 23%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Rand Paul at 12%, and Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz tied at 10% each. Much of Christie’s lead comes from those identifying as moderate and somewhat conservative.

Joe Biden and Rick Santorum might both be native Pennsylvanians, but it's not giving either of them a leg up when it comes to the Presidential race in the state in 2016.

On the Democratic side 65% of voters want Hillary Clinton to be their candidate in 2016 to just 9% for Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Cuomo, and 4% for Cory Booker. Clinton polls over 60% with liberals, moderates, women, whites, African Americans, and voters within every age group.

On the Republican side Chris Christie is the candidate of choice at 23%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Rand Paul at 12%, and Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz at 10%. Despite his native status Santorum manages only a 6th place finish at 8%, followed by Marco Rubio at 6%, Paul Ryan at 4%, and Scott Walker at 3%. Christie leads based on his strength with moderates and voters who identify as 'somewhat conservative.'

Hillary Clinton has double digit leads over all of her potential Republican opponents for the general election. It's 49/39 over Chris Christie, 51/40 over Rick Santorum, 51/37 over Jeb Bush, 52/38 over Rand Paul, 52/37 over Mike Huckabee, and 53/34 over Ted Cruz. Those leads are all considerably bigger than what Barack Obama won the state by in 2012.

May 22, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP finds the Iowa Republican field to be completely wide open, while Hilary Clinton maintains her lead in all potential general election match-ups. Among Republicans, six different candidates garner support of at least 8%, while none get over 20%.

Mike Huckabee currently leads the field with 20% of the vote, followed by Ted Cruz at 15% and Jeb Bush at 12%. Chris Christie (9%), Rand Paul (10%), and Paul Ryan (8%) all garner at least 8% as well. Almost all of the leading candidates have positive favorability ratings, with Jeb Bush at 48% favorable and 25% unfavorable, Ted Cruz at 58/11, Mike Huckabee at 70/14, Rand Paul at 60/12, and Paul Ryan at 60/15. The lone exception is Chris Christie, who sits at a 36% favorable opinion with 38% unfavorable, the highest unfavorable score of anyone not named Donald Trump by 13 points.

PPP's newest Iowa 2016 poll finds the same thing every 2016 poll ever conducted has found- a wide open race on the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton with a dominant lead among the Democrats.

For the Republicans Mike Huckabee leads with 20% to 15% for Ted Cruz, 12% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Rand Paul, 9% for Chris Christie, 8% for Paul Ryan, 6% for Scott Walker, 4% for Marco Rubio, and 3% for Rick Santorum. Huckabee led on our February poll as well. Huckabee leads based especially on his strength with conservatives, women, and seniors.

Other things of note:

-Chris Christie actually now has a negative favorability rating with Republicans in the state at 36/38. That's largely due to his issues with 'very conservative' voters, only 22% of whom see him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion. Christie leads the GOP field with moderates, but gets only 3% with the most conservative voters who constitute a plurality of the electorate.

-Huckabee is the only Republican to hit a 70% favorability rating in Iowa. The next highest after him is Sarah Palin at 68%, then Santorum at 62%, and Ryan and Paul at 60%. Despite remaining personally popular Santorum does not appear to be many people's first choice this time around- his surprise win in 2012 was largely the product of a weak field for conservative voters to choose from.

-Jeb Bush, after Christie, has the second highest unfavorability rating of any of the serious contenders. 48% see him favorably but 25% have an unfavorable opinion. We also found Donald Trump at a 30/40 spread but he doesn't fit in the 'serious' category.

-Beyond the big names included in every poll we also looked at some of the more dark horse potential Republican contenders. Ben Carson has 43% name recognition (37/6), Peter King is at 30% (11/19), Scott Brown has just 29% name recognition (12/17), and John Kasich is known to just 28% of voters (18/10).

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton remains ever dominant with 59% supporting her for the nomination to 12% for Joe Biden, 11% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% each for Cory Booker and Andrew Cuomo, and everyone else at 2% or lower. Clinton has an 83/12 favorability rating, and polls at least 53% with liberals, moderates, men, women, seniors, and younger voters alike.

April 24, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – Wisconsin Republicans are more excited about the prospect of Paul Ryan running for President in 2016 than Scott Walker...but they both lag behind Hillary Clinton even in their home state.

Ryan leads the GOP Presidential field in Wisconsin with 25% to 21% for Walker, 8% each for Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, and Rand Paul, 7% for Ted Cruz, 6% for Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, and 3% for Bobby Jindal. Asked one on one who they'd prefer out of their state's potential homegrown candidates, Republicans in the state pick Ryan 52/35. And while GOP voters pretty firmly want Ryan to run in 2016- 55% say he should go for it to 26% who dissent- they're much more divided about Walker with 43% saying he should run and 42% that he should not.

When it comes to the general election though Hillary Clinton leads all comers. Ryan comes closest at 50/45, with Walker not far behind at 51/44. All of the other potential Republican hopefuls trail Clinton by double digits- it's 50/39 against both Bush and Paul, 50/38 against Huckabee, and 49/36 against Christie. The overall electorate doesn't think either Ryan (33% yes, 52% no) or Walker (29% yes, 61% no) should run for President.

March 14, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's regular look at the 2016 Presidential race really shows how important it is for the party that Hillary Clinton run in 2016. She leads Mike Huckabee 49/42 in a hypothetical contest. By contrast Joe Biden would trail Huckabee 46/41 in a hypothetical match, and Elizabeth Warren would trail 44/33. This is one of the most massive electability gaps we've ever seen.

Clinton also leads the rest of the Republican field in potential contests, although some of the match ups are pretty close. Jeb Bush is the strongest GOP hopeful, trailing by only 3 points at 47/44 and Chris Christie isn't far behind with a 4 point deficit at 46/42. Clinton leads Rand Paul and Paul Ryan each by 5 points at 47/42 and 48/43 respectively, Marco Rubio by 8 points at 48/40, and Ted Cruz by 11 points at 51/40.

“At this point the contrast for 2016 is pretty stark,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Hillary Clinton runs, Democrats are favored to keep control of the White House. If she doesn’t run, voters are more inclined to vote for the GOP nominee.”

PPP's regular look at the 2016 Presidential race really shows how important it is for the party that Hillary Clinton run in 2016. She leads Mike Huckabee 49/42 in a hypothetical contest. By contrast Joe Biden would trail Huckabee 46/41 in a hypothetical match, and Elizabeth Warren would trail 44/33. This is one of the most massive electability gaps we've ever seen.

Clinton also leads the rest of the Republican field in potential contests, although some of the match ups are pretty close. Jeb Bush is the strongest GOP hopeful, trailing by only 3 points at 47/44 and Chris Christie isn't far behind with a 4 point deficit at 46/42. Clinton leads Rand Paul and Paul Ryan each by 5 points at 47/42 and 48/43 respectively, Marco Rubio by 8 points at 48/40, and Ted Cruz by 11 points at 51/40.

There's been a lot of Mitt Romney nostalgia of late but we find little evidence his image has improved since losing the 2012 contest to Barack Obama. Romney has a 38/48 favorability rating and trails Clinton 48/43 in a hypothetical contest, slightly worse than his margin of defeat against Obama. Romney's net favorability is worse than every potential 2016 GOP contender we looked at on this poll except for Ted Cruz.

For the second time in a row Mike Huckabee leads the national Republican field for 2016. Huckabee's at 18% to 15% for Jeb Bush, 14% each for Chris Christie and Rand Paul, 11% for Ted Cruz, 6% for Marco Rubio, 5% for Paul Ryan and Scott Walker, and 4% for Bobby Jindal.

February 27, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest poll in Iowa finds a tale of two primaries. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to lead all potential candidates by wide margins. She keeps 67% of the Democratic vote, while the only other candidates to garner support were Joe Biden at 12%, Elizabeth Warren at 5%, Mark Warner at 3%, Andrew Cuomo at 2%, and Cory Booker at 1%. The 67% figure is down slightly from when we polled in July (71%), but that decrease in support seems to have gone to voters now unsure about whom they will vote for instead of any specific candidate. Clinton fares best among those identifying as very liberal (79% of the vote) and women (71%). While her favorability rating is also down slightly from July, 82% of Democratic voters still view her favorably, compared to only 9% who view her unfavorably.

When Clinton is out of the picture, the main beneficiary is Joe Biden, who becomes the frontrunner with 40% of the vote. Elizabeth Warren also emerges as a contender with 13%. In a scenario with neither Clinton nor Biden, Warren leads all candidates with 21% of the vote. Both Biden and Warren boast strong favorability ratings at 66/13 and 43/8, respectively.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2015

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

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Dean DebnamPublic Policy Polling CEO

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