Will a Stock Market Sell-Off Happen After the French Election?

Market panic could ensue as the far-left and the far-right battle for France.

Sunday (April 23) is when the French primaries take place. The top four candidates are François Fillon, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Emmanueal Macron.

If one of those candidates does not win a majority (over 50%) of the votes, then the runoff election will take place on May 7.

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What to Expect from the French Election This Week

It is highly unlikely that one candidate will win an outright majority of the votes this weekend. The concern is that the two front-runners that represent the far-right and the far-left (Le Pen and Mélenchon, respectively) will make it to the next round of elections. All four of the candidates are currently within 4% of each other in the current polls, but Le Pen and Mélenchon were early favorites.

Even more concerning is that both of these candidates want France to exit the EU and return to the French franc.

The reason for the sell-off would be concerns about the EU being able to continue. Britain is already negotiating an exit, and Greece may have no choice but to leave if it can't get its finances in order. A French exit would potentially mean three of the 27 countries are leaving the EU within a year or two of each other. This is potentially the start of a mass exit from the EU.

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