Unlike the past when technology eliminated some jobs but created others, the trend in innovation today is toward job elimination. (“In the Future, Will There be Any Work Left for People to do?” by Geoff Colvin, Fortune, June 16, 2014, pgs. 193-200.) According to writer Geoff Colvin, the change has been subtle and has developed over 4 stages. The first came with the industrial age when machines replaced skilled craftsmen. Only unskilled laborers were needed to perform the repetitive tasks of an assembly line. In stage 2, robots took over most of these repetitive chores while the demand for an educated workforce grew, one that could design and maintain computer systems, for example. Stage 3 began in the 1980s when computers took over medium-skilled functions like record filing, accounting and bookkeeping. During this period, high-skilled workers continued to be needed as were those without them but who had the manual dexterity for some jobs which robots lacked.

Stage 4, the era of information technology, is about to affect all skill levels. The need for lawyers will decline because big data will replace the armies of young attorneys currently engaged in law research. Doctors increasingly will rely on robots to perform delicate surgeries. Even taxi drivers will disappear when cars learn to drive themselves.

Jobs that require the human touch will survive, according to Colvin. Mediation, the judiciary, counseling, hospice and medical services are prime examples. They employ right brain functions and a robot, no matter how well it mimics human emotions, would be no comfort in times of stress.

Colvin is not alone in his concern about the jobs outlook. A conservative economist like Larry Summers who championed bank bailouts as Treasury Secretary under George W. Bush admits he is nervous. (Ibid, pg. 196-7) Without some distribution formula for wealth in the future, a few individuals might end up owning the world while the rest of us are condemned to poverty. (See blog 10/28/13) Waiting for the economic Tsunami is not an option. A national discussion on wealth distribution is needed now.

My friend, Bob Davis, a Tektronix founder who is not longer with us, predicted 20 to 30 years ago that the day will come that there would no longer be enough jobs for the population. This discussion is needed now.
As far back as Harry Truman the idea of a income for all people (and universal health care) was proposed but the people who oppose it (mostly Republicans) are so comfortable and insular they can't imagine why everyone isn't like them. Wealth distribution is a critical issue but, in general, we are in the Age of Apathy because people are so busy and burned out from repetitious reporting of crisis all over the world on a daily basis (information overload) they don't want to dwell on subjects like this...to universal peril.

I couldn't agree with you more, Maggi. We have a looming crisis -- yes yet another one. But the jobs crisis is going to hit the middle class hard. The problem isn't about the oligarchy. It's our mindset: that work is a measure of wealth distribution. Technology is changing the world in a way that will require a new measurement if we hope to sustain the population. Thank you for putting in your 2 cents worth.

Caroline published a serialized novelette, Marie Eau-Claire, on the website, The Colored Lens. She also published the story Gustav Pavel, a parable about ordinary lives, choice and alternate potential, on the website Fixional.co.