Using ETFs to Profitably Manage Your Assets

If you have a Self-Directed IRA, in particularly you should know about and
understand (Inverse) ETFs.

These guys let you Buy (yes I said Buy) in your retirement account and profit
when the Marketplace declines.

For example: I am Forecasting a meaningful Pull-Back / Bearish Cycle. In the
management of your retirement or non-retirement - I am advising that you should
use one of two investment strategies. You should either Hold Cash or Buy (Select
Inverse) ETFs. I manage assets this way using over 40 (Inverse) ETFs that
follow the Indices / Sectors / Industry Groups / Countries very closely to
their given trend.

I am getting initial Alerts (Signals for a Bearish Inflection Point) to Buy
many of these (Inverse) ETFs and that provides me the confidence that a meaningful
Pull-Back / Bearish Cycle is eminent.

If you are not yet comfortable using ETFs (Regular) for Bullish Cycles and
(Inverse) for Bearish Cycles, you might want to send me your questions and
thoughts.

Analytics of a large number of Bellwether ETFs provides very clear
Guidance when I go about selecting a Company or ETF to - Buy or to Short.
For me it is a special kind of Sector or Industry Groups that supposedly the
Fund Manager believes his or her selection of Companies will out-perform the
competition. There is also very good information available about the component
Companies (Comparative Analytics) in the portfolio of the ETF. Sometimes there
are advantages of Buying the (Regular) ETF if you are Bullish - or - perhaps
Buying the (Inverse) ETF, when available, if you are Bearish. I spend a great
deal of time studying many more ETFs than the above 13 that I write these
articles about.

Note I - for the above ETFs: a) These are - DEFINITELY - NOT - necessarily
my current favorite ETFs to recommend for Buying or Shorting to my Clients!
Most often there are other / alternate ETFs that have a much better - Risk
to Reward Ratio and Profit Projection. b) These ETFs are all supposedly
made up with the Component Companies exclusively from the Home BuildersIndustry
Group. c) Remember, there are always the most favorable and least
favorable Component Companies to consider on my Buying or Shorting Lists within
a ETF or the entire Sector or Industry Group. d) To Plug Further Into
my Work / Analytics -- Please read or re-read "My
Rotation Model". It is all about identifying the most favorable
Companies and ETFs to Buy and identifying the least favorable Companies
and ETFs to Short during the respective Bullish Cycles and Bearish
Cycles of the General Market and that particular Company or ETF. There
are always the more favorable Companies as well as the least favorable
Companies on my lists for Buying in Bullish Cycles and for Shorting in
Bearish Cycles of the General Stock Market. e) You also might also
want to read or re-read "My
Methodology". f) Risk and Reward Can Be Calculated. I do this work
/ analytics on every Company and ETF because it almost totally mitigates
the Risk of Investing. You might want to read my views on Risk
/ Reward.

"My near-term (2 weeks - 1 month) - to - short-term (1month to 3
months) Forecast is that this Home Builders - ETF has
been Ascending (more than doubled) for over a year. The past four month
the price has been flat while the Marketplace has been in a Rally. This
Comparative Analytics is often tell-tale of a possible end of this primary
Bullish Cycle. This fact coincides with my Fundamental - Valuation Analytics
perfectly.

However, more recently, for about the past four months, the (below - listed)
component Company Valuations have not! Again, a Warning.

Technical Indicators have also begun waning since September of this year.
The foreseeable appreciation picture for this Home Builders - ETF is
not nearly as bright as most financial analysts and the media are publishing.
(When I read other financial analyst / media / blogger articles, which
is seldom - many of these Guys / Gals seem to be using some kind of a Crystal
Ball / Weegie Board / Witching Stick rather than old fashioned / solid / basic
- Securities Analysis). I again urge you to read my Special Update - the
URL is offered above.

After a brief continuation Bounce / Mini-Rally I would expect (XHB) and
many Home Builders Companies to enter a likely meaningful Pull-Back
phase.

As for a meaningful Rally to begin it will require MUCH more TIME before
this ETF will be in Bullish sync with my above Formula and "My Methodology" for "Investing
Wisely." This is yet another Warning!

At the current price of $27.00 it is getting ready for another Pull
Back -- again -- after another Bounce / Mini-Rally.

This is a Warning that will not be "Confirmed" other than privately
via Email to Clients and select prospective Clients. I do not - Publicly
provide my "Confirmations" for Bullish or Bearish Alerts or Warnings. If you
are interested in my "private Email" recommendations, feel free to let me
know. Serious Investors Only -- Please.

For my Near to Short-Term Forecast on any of the above just send me an Email.
Serious Investors Only -- Please.

Note II: I would like to reiterate that this list of Home Builders Companies
has and always will have a Quantitative Ranking and Grade within My
List of the most favorable and least favorable Companies from
which to consider "Investing Wisely." (see my "Report Cards" for how I
Rank and Grade each and every Company that I do Analytics on). Second,
the Risk and Reward of "Investing Wisely" can be Accurately Calculated
for each Company. Your annual Bottom Line can be improved and
your Risk of Investment can be lowered. Please consider reading
my Article on Calculating
/ Measuring Risk vs. Reward. I hope you will permit me to help
in your quest to profit.

May I suggest that it is most important for you to understand that my work
/ analytics is based on "My Methodology" that focuses on three
key aspects of analytics. The first and primary is Fundamental - Valuation and
the second is Inflection Point - Technical Analysis and lastly I also
have a long look at Consensus Opinion. These are all weighted - Rankings
relative to all my Bullish and Bearish Recommendations to my Clients.

How I Do my Forecasting and Get My Accuracy, Results and Consistent
Profits...

This comparative General Market Indicator may be the best I have ever seen!

Charts for Home Builders- ETF

My below two charts also tell the Technical story of the future direction
of the Home Builders Industry Group very clearly.

Please understand that my Technical Analysis work is always supported by
my Fundamental - Valuation of all the Industry Groups and their component
Companies with-in my universe of (over 300 Industry Groups!).

Home Builders is definitely not an ETF to Buy or to Hold
at this time. Over time in reading my articles and keeping track of my ETF (Bullish
and Bearish) accuracy you will perhaps have a better understanding of my logo of
- "Investing Wisely."

Two-Year Chart: Home Builders- ETF (XHB) with a Compare of the S&P
- (SPY)

(XHB) and (SPY) are nearly perfectly in sync! Note that (XHB) has
Over-Performed the Market. That's Important and Being Aware of these simple
Facts is - Why You Do or Do Not Make Money in the Stock Market.

Five-Year Chart: Home BuildersETF (XHB) with a Compare of the S&P -
(SPY)

My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range
from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / "A" are
not current (never are) Candidates for Buying. Grades above 60 / "F" are
not current (never are) Candidates for Short Selling.

Information and Data are ever changing, so "be alert." Every Company /
ETF "Grade" can move from a neutral grade (59 to 89 / "D" to "B")
to a Buy (greater than 90) - or - a Short Sale (less than 60)
in a very short time. This is my on going Work / Analytics and I have loved
it for over 50 years.

Remember, it was not all that long ago that this ETF has a Report Card
of 90+ with a letter Grade of "A". Why? any Investor,
Financial Analyst, Mutual Fund - et. al. -- would Buy or Hold a Long position
in ANY Company or ETF that is not currently an "A" Grade/Rating is far
beyond my ability to understand!

Please do not Buy or Short this Home Builders- ETF or It's Components without
first talking with a very well seasoned financial analyst or perhaps
visiting with me via Email.

I am the guy who wrote the 38 Weekly Courses on Investment Basics.
See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page or
go to my name under Authors.

General Market - Where are We and Where are we Going?

My "Fundamentals" are Over-Valued. My "Technicals" are Over-Bought. My "Consensus
Opinions" are much too Bullish. "Interest and Dividends" are on the Rise. "Insiders" are
SELLING their shares. The "Economy in the U.S. and World" is in much more
peril than is being reported by the media. Hum!

If you want to "Roll the Dice" rather than plug into "My Methodology" of "Investing
Wisely" - that of course is your choice. You now have 13 Select Companies
(My High Profile / Bellwether Companies) and a second weekly series of 13
Select ETFs to monitor my Forecasts for Accuracy.

I believe my recent article on Performance, as well as these Company and ETF
articles supports "My Methodology" and Professional Services very well. Please
Click on Performance for
a look at my "Results."

I continue to be Bearish on the General Market and the Economy for
the foreseeable future.

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a
great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent
as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.