Could NH Senate have its own ‘Gang of Six’?

Structurally, there appear to be two realities about the next New Hampshire state Senate session: Republicans will hold the majority by a single seat and there are a growing number of moderate Republicans and Democrats in the chamber.

Combine those realities with the decentralized leadership style of Senate President Peter Bragdon and there is obvious potential for moderates to control the entire policy agenda in Concord, whether formally or informally.

The last three elections have altered the calculus for getting legislation passed under the golden dome. In 2009, a Democratic House worked with a Democratic Senate and a Democratic governor to pass a budget and even legalize gay marriage. In 2011, the key dynamic was whether the huge Republican super-majorities in the House and the Senate had enough votes to override a Democratic governor’s veto, which they often did.

When the session opens in 2013 the dynamic will be different once again. For the Democratic House to get anything on a new Democratic governor’s desk they will have to figure out a way to get through a much more complicated Senate, a body that technically would be run by Republicans, but could actually be run by a minority of moderates from both parties.

In Washington, there is a working group of three Republicans and three Democrats who work together to try to propose solutions that would break the partisan stalemate. In New Hampshire, a similar Gang of Six wouldn’t be just simply for Hail Mary compromises, but actually decide each week what type of legislation gets crafted.

The senators who could make up this New Hampshire “Gang of Six” faction all have the political incentives to participate. Freshman Democrats like Jeff Woodburn, D-Dalton, Andrew Hosmer, D-Laconia, and Peg Gilmour, D-Nashua, represent districts that would reward a moderate. The same goes for Republicans Nancy Stiles, R-Hampton, Bob Odell, R-Lempster, and John Reagan R-Deerfield.

The list could be beyond the model of six that exists as a working group in the U.S. Senate. In New Hampshire the group could also include Lou D’Allesendaro, D-Manchester, Jeanie Forrester, R-Meredith and Donna Soucy D-Manchester because of the political realities of their districts.

Of course, there are two state Senate recounts for seats held by Republicans this week that could change the power dynamics of the Senate, but would also further the power a moderate caucus could play, particularly in a tied 12-12 Senate.

Further, if Lee Nyquist, D-New Boston, were somehow able make up a few hundred votes to win a recount Tuesday over Andy Sanborn, R-Bedford, Nyquist would also likely seek out a moderate group.

It is unclear who would take charge in organizing the group if it were to become anything formal, but even in a less formal role the ability to count votes among this moderate group of six to nine Senators should be where every policy director and even lobbyist should begin.

Also unclear is whether or not Republican and Democratic leadership would even stand in the way to their own power being diluted by something like a Gang of Six. Senate President Peter Bragdon has not ruled with an iron first, Republican Leader Jeb Bradley is looking to higher office in 2014 and could use the group as a foil in a primary and as a great example in a general election. At the same time, Democratic leader Sylvia Larsen would relish anyway that the Republican majority couldn’t control the destiny of bills in the upper chamber.