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Trende on the Election: A Nailbiter

For those who can’t get enough election speculation, Sean Trende, whose work I think highly of, examines the relevant information and concludes that the national polls are more likely to be correct than the state polls (he was ambivalent on this before). He concludes that it’s going to be a very tight race, decided by slim margins in a handful of states, but estimates a 60% chance of an Obama victory. Even before I read his column, I gave my one and only real prediction of the election: the final national popular vote will be closer to the Real Clear Politics National Polling average of a .7% Obama margin than to Nate Silver’s estimate of a 2.5% Obama margin. I feel better about my prediction knowing that Trende seems to agree.