Ten Lok Sabha seats are up for grabs in Vidarbha. In 2014, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine delivered a body blow to this Congress base (with NCP fighting separately then) by sweeping all the 10 seats. The BJP won 44 of the 62 assembly segments of the region without an alliance with Shiv Sena. With the Congress and NCP regrouping this time, BJP-Sena ending their bickering and with the Modi government and many BJP-Sena MPs facing incumbency tests, the real question here is, will the saffron alliance sweep the region again or will the Congress-NCP make a dent?

This election is taking place in the backdrop of the post-2014 shift of Maharashtra’s political ‘power-centre’ from the traditional Western region to Vidarbha, particularly Nagpur, the home-pitch of union minister Nitin Gadkari and chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, besides being the RSS headquarters.

Comprising 11 districts of Nagpur and Amaravati divisions, Vidarbha has over 20% of the state’s population and is the land of perennial agrarian crisis and farmers’ suicides. Barring Nagpur and Chandrapur, where the development work is concentrated, the rest of the districts are agrarian and complain of disparity in development. The once simmering Vidarbha statehood movement appears to have lost steam as all major political parties have sidestepped the issue, leaving only a bunch of small local parties to adopt the cause.

In 2014, BJP won Nagpur, Chandrapur, Wardha, Gadchiroli-Chimur, Akola and Bhandara-Gondia constituencies and the Sena held Yavatmal, Amravati, Ramtek and Buldhana. But, the BJP (with Sena as a non-cooperating ally) losing to (Congress-backed) NCP in last year’s Bhandaria-Gondia by-elections ––after sitting MP Nitin Patole revolted, resigned and joined the Congress ––make political circles wonder whether that by-election result was a one-off case or a pointer to a larger churning.

BREAD & BUTTER VS NATIONAL AGENDABread and butter issues, particularly agrarian concerns and unemployment, dominate the pre-poll discourse. The cotton cultivating Buldhana-Yavatmal districts have been the centre of farmers’ suicides and issues such as need for better returns, viability of traditional farming-irrigation practices and consequences of BT cotton experiment dominate debates here.

To highlight the mainstream parties’ apathy for farmers’ issues, the local Prahar Janaskahti Party has fielded the widow of a farmer who committed suicide from Yavatmal-Washim this time. “It was at a village in Yavatmal that the then BJP prime ministerial candidate Modi had promised, over chai per charcha, that his government would implement the Swaminathan Committee Report. Five years later, farmers continue to struggle and rue over betrayed promises,” said Vijay Jawandhia, a Shetkari Sanghatan leader.

The Centre’s proposal of Rs 6,000 to the small and medium farmers has invoked mixed reactions. “I am yet to get the first instalment Rs 2,000. I have made three trips to the bank only to be told that my money has not yet reached. I have ended up spending Rs 150,” lamented Ramchandra Pakhidaji Atra, an old tribal farmer of Chintuni Batani of Maragaon tehsil of Yavatmal district.

However, Udaram Morku Pikulmande of Tumser area of Bhandara said, “Modi ji has done good work for farmers and the poor by providing houses, toilets ….”. Past experiences have made the villagers so sceptical that most of them take politicians’ big promises –– be it Rahul Gandhi’s promise of Rs 72,000 for the poor or Modi government’s proposed package for farmers –– as the “Rs 15 lakh for all-like pre-poll jumla”. For these farmers, a time-bound waiver of loans is the most wanted measure.

PASSIVE RESPONSE TO BALAKOTContrary to the “Delhi discourse”, the Pulwama-Balakot issue is not discussed, unless prodded. “The Modi government has done the right thing, shown India can quickly and effectively teach Pakistan a lesson,” said Kapil Puri, an unemployed graduate who says he will vote for Modi irrespective of him not finding a job.

“The Balakot strike was only to cover up the Intelligence failure at Pulwama, which cost the lives of 40 soldiers,” quipped Gaurav Kakade, who runs a tution centre at Navate in Amravati district. But, Mission Shakti is clearly not on the radar.

POLITICAL LINE-UPThe general feeling here is that while BJP-Sena may retain the edge across Vidarbha, they may find it difficult to repeat the 10-0 sweep due to the regrouping of the Congress-NCP, the agrarian unrest, anger of jobless youth, the perceived anger among the significant Dalit and Muslims against the Modi government and incumbency.

The BJP camp is hoping that candidates of BSP and Prakash Ambedkar-Owaisi alliance will divide the Dalit-Muslims votes.

The “Modi factor” is being discussed actively but has moved from ‘the 2014 adulation’ to ‘arguments’ on PM’s five-year track-record.

Yet, the factions-ridden state of the once formidable Congress across Vidarbha, the party’s failure to throw up an inspiring pan-India leader, lack of heavyweight leaders and the relatively weaker presence of NCP may come in the way of tapping the full strength of growing grievances.

A number of seats such as Chandrapur, Amravati, Bhandaria-Gondia, Wardha, Yavatmal-Washim seats are facing close fights between the BJP-Sena and Congress-NCP.