Fry’s Forgotten Few – Round 3

Phew. I managed to dodge a ton of the carnage from the weekend that was and even had the luxary of nailing my rookie picks. 2115 isn’t the greatest score but it saw me make up a ton of ground on the coaches ahead of me. Round 3…

DEFENCE

Michael Hurley, Bombers ($664K, 104 BE, 8.61% ownership)
We all acted surprised when Hurley broke out last year as an elite Fantasy defender. So why are we still surprised to see his name at the top of the list? One of the premier backmen has started with back-to-back 90’s, giving us plenty of reason to believe his 2017 breakout wasn’t a flash in the pan. He looms as a great POD choice to replace Michael Hibberd.

Luke Ryan, Dockers ($545K, 61 BE, 3.01% ownership)
This might be considered a homer pick by a Freo supporter, but trust me, this guy could be Andrew Mackie 2.0. He has 14 intercept marks already this season and looks at home in the +6 happy Dockers defense. I’m buying as much stock as I can right now.

Draft Sleeper – Jarryn Geary, Saints ($476K, 36 BE, 1.48% ownership)
Proceed with caution. The Saints skipper has some of the best job security in the league so you can invest without fear of him being dropped. However, he doesn’t have the greatest track record of posting huge scores. Two scores of 90+ are a good sign that Geary’s in for a ripper 2018 though.

MIDFIELD

Jack Macrae, Bulldogs ($751K, 96 BE, 1.07% ownership)
Yes, the Bulldogs are rubbish, yes, they are leaking points like the Titanic, but that hasn’t stopped Macrae from starting the year on fire. Macrae is owned by just over 1% of teams, a criminally low ownership percentage for someone of his calibre. You want a unique player? Look no further than the Dogs jet.

Clayton Oliver, Demons ($737K, 94 BE, 2.21% ownership)
Another young gun who finds himself on the outer is the Demons Clayton Oliver. Under 3,000 coaches across the globe are currently housing Oliver, who has put up great scores against Geelong and Brisbane. With North Melbourne on the horizon expect another 115+ outing from the ‘Ginger Ninja’.

Draft Sleeper – Tim Kelly, Cats ($319K, -27 BE, 44.26% ownership)
I continue to make exceptions to my rules for Tim Kelly. After watching the Cat tear up the MCG in front of a packed house on Easter Monday he is must have property in Classic, Draft and any other god damn format you can think of. Imagine what he does back home in WA against West Coast this week?!

RUCK

Todd Goldstein, Roos ($629K, 76 BE, 4.65% ownership)
Are you sick of hearing a sentence that sounds something like “Oh yeah, I had my eyes on (insert player’s name) all preseason and changed my mind at the last minute”? Well, I promise you this will be my last one for 2018. Pinky swear. I had my eyes on Todd Goldstein all preseason and change my mind at the last minute. If you aren’t the proud owner of two great ruckmen, then Goldy’s your man.

Draft Sleeper – Ummm…
Slim picking’s right now in the Draft compartment, especially if you are in a 12+ player league. If you are desperate in a deeper league then you could target the revolving door that is Geelong’ ruck stash. Otherwise Scott Lycett has proved he can score even with Nic Natanui on the field.

FORWARD

Robbie Gray, Power ($592K, 66 BE, 4.55% ownership)
I’ll admit this is a bit of a copout as his low ownership is due to Gray missing Round 1. This recommendation comes with a warning tag though. Gray played a ton of midfield time in game one and if that is his role moving forward, then we need to lock and load. There’s no guarantee that he will be roaming through the guts with frequency though. You have been warned.

Lewis Taylor, Lions ($579K, 69 BE, 0.37% ownership)
After flirting with being a decent Fantasy player last year, maybe Lewis Taylor is ready to breakout? That’s a big maybe and I’d advise watching him for another week or two as his opponents have been soft so far. Definitely worth adding to your watch list though.

Draft Sleeper – Charlie Curnow, Blues ($548K, 61 BE, 9.91% ownership)
Last week a friend of mine asked me if he should invest in Charlie Curnow and I reminded him of rule No. 1 when it comes to picking forwards. Avoid key position guys not named Lance Franklin. My rule might need updating.

The Three Big Questions Of Round 3

Which Rookies Do I Start On My Field?Great question. I have been on point so far this season with none of my bench rooks outscoring my fielded players. So let me try and name the top three cash cows to start at each position for Round 3 taking into account their role and opponent.DEF: 1. J.Finlayson, 2. T.Doedee, 3. Z.GuthrieMID: 1. T.Kelly, 2. N.Holman, 3. D.BarryRUC: 1. None, 2. No seriously no rookie rucks on your field, 3. T.EnglishFWD: 1. B.Fritsch, 2. L.Ryan, 3. J.Stephenson, 4. Not Cam Rayner

Is It STILL To Early To Give Up On…?One bad score from a premium is somewhat forgivable. A second one? That’s when the line is drawn in the sand. As I said last week a change of role is a really good reason to trade out a premium who is underperforming *cough Sam Menegola cough*. Players like Zach Merrett I usually back in based on their previous track record, but two bad performances

How Do You Attack One Week Suspensions/Injuries?The general rule of thumb is that an injured player is a must trade. Sometimes a ‘one week niggle’ quickly becomes two or three. When it comes to a suspended player though it’s a different story. The Sic Dog is a perfect example heading into Round 3. Facing just one week on the pine, a lot of coaches are flirting with the idea of holding him, playing a rookie and then bringing him back the following week. If you have decent rookies and that flexibility I would go for it as it’s only one week. Anything longer though and a suspension means trade, trade, trade.

Back From The Dead

Robbie Gray, Power (119) – See above. Gun.

Patrick Dangerfield, Cats (118) – Pencil Danger in for these sort of numbers as long he is on the park. The other two-thirds of ‘The Holy Trinity’ won’t hamper his scores.

Stephen Hill, Dockers (89) – Hill made some uncharacteristic mistakes with the footy. Look for him to lift against Gold Coast.

Aaron Hall, Suns (83) – Not the return coaches would have wanted from Hall. Lift.

Dan Hannebery, Swans (73) – I own Hanners in a Draft league. He is close to being dropped if he keeps this up.

Good article as always. Goldy is one of the few “I had may eye on him most of the preseason and stuck fat with” success stories of my team. I felt chuffed with picking Mills after his R1 90 (less so after his R2 score..) and felt mildly burned by Christensen’s R1 performance only to feel better with him come R2. I did have my eye on Hurley, but moved him off for Laird, so I’ll wear that happily. Did have my eye most of the preseason of J Kelly and B Gibbs but opted for T Adams and Z Merrett on the day of R1 lockout. Yah, that’s not gone so well.

Saying that, calling Zerrett has having two bad games in a row is a bit harsh (say the guy desperately holding out hope for a silver lining) since he was on rough (one quarter in…) pace to ton up in R1 before he got rubbed out with a concussion. If he doesn’t perform this week then he’s theoretically out (realistically I’ve lost so much on him that I’m sort of stuck hoping he turns it around one way or the other anyway).

Thanks mate! Well done on the Goldy move, fingers crossed he continues to produce for you. Yeah I’m in a tricky spot with Zerrett, I’m so tempted to hold, but downgrading Hibbo to the likes of Savage allows me to turn him into Ablett

I have a theory that players are a strong chance to underperform their long term average for 4 weeks after a concussion (the average of the 4 not necessary every one is bad). I’d like to see someone crunch the numbers but anecdotally i have observed my theory for a few years and believe this to play out as true most of the time.

I would choose Gray every day of the week. He at least has the ability to get his hands on the footy a ton, were as Hogan relies on goals for his big scores.
I side with Ryan just. In his 11 games last year he showed plenty of flashes, while Tomlinson scored a bunch of junk last year. If he keeps it up he is worth a look, but right now I have more faith in Ryan

Do you think Ryan’s 71 against Port would be about the worst he will score? Given Freo got smashed and tough playing away in Adelaide – because if that’s not even a bad minimum score really, I guess is a matter of how consistently he can hit those 90/100s

When Freo play well the backline runners of Wilson and Ryan will push up the ground and get into the play, with Pearce and Hamling staying at home. When they play poorly, Ryan will still score around 70ish as he is the teams designated intercept marker. I think he’s a great pick.

I don’t know if he can consistently score 90/100, but you’re right his basement scores won’t be too woeful. Freo loves to let guys like Ryan, Wilson and Blakely roam free so he’s a great choice at his price

Thanks guys, much love. I personally think with Scharenberg back in the mix Murray’s scores will take a bit of a dip and Z.Guthrie will probably outscore him this week. That being said it’s not a massive difference so I understand starting Murray over Z.Guthrie

Personally I don’t think much of Higgins’s job security. And I’ve been badly burnt by Hardwick’s moves with rookies in the past! I think it makes sense to wait and see how Higgins goes (he’s very young) and whether he holds his spot.

I think it is still anyone’s year looking at the average scores getting around, I think I have been mighty unlucky with zerret, crouch and Duncan but overall the rest seem ok with the odd exception, I noticed you have a few issues with your squad same as a lot of players.

When Freo play well the backline runners of Wilson and Ryan will push up the ground and get into the play, with Pearce and Hamling staying at home. When they play poorly, Ryan will still score around 70ish as he is the teams designated intercept marker. I think he’s a great pick.

I’m a Bombers supporter and a big Hurley fan – he’s terrific for us down back and a thoroughly deserving All Australian. But I’m wary of picking him for my fantasy team at the moment.

He’s had some injury problems of late and I’m a tad nervous (week to week) about whether or not he’ll play. This morning he apparently ran laps but didn’t participate in the rest of the standard training session. Reckon it’s touch and go at this stage. Interesting choice of pic (above) … buyer beware!

If it wasn’t for this injury concern I’d be on board myself – Go Hurls!!

Also, his current BE is over his scores for the first two rounds, so maybe it makes more sense to wait a bit?

Option 1
M. Crouch -> J. Selwood
J. Siciliy -> Z. Tuohy (has the ability to be another headache, e.g. last year)
This option means I keep Rayner in my team but he only has a BE of 51 (he is vsing Port this weekend so he could go down even further)

Sicily is the least of your worries, due to a one-week suspension. In order, I would probably trade Greene and one of the young guys. That being said out of the three options you have listed I like the second one

Is kelly from the cats a must have. Got Duncan and sicdog to trade (sicdog in my forward line)
Looking at
1. Danger/ Acres or Gray or Walters plus 50k with danger more for others
2. Danger/congi/ dusty and Taranto plus coin plus 132k
3. Kelly/ any forward plus 500k

Love the Coffield move, tick tick. For the second part of your question, Sic Dog to Simpson is good move, and I agree that turning Duncan into Walters is a bit risky. Instead, choosing another premo in the middle is the way to go.

I would recommend doing the Coffield move and then Duncan to the best premo mid you can get your hands on (look at Gazza).