2014-15 College Basketball Futures

2014-15 College Basketball Futures

It was just days after the college basketball season that sportsbooks began to post their 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball futures. The LVH was the first sportsbook to post their Championship odds, while Sportsbook.com joined them shortly after as the first offshore book.

The reigning national champs, UConn, graduated their leading scorer in Shabazz Napier while star forward DeAndre Daniels opted to declare early for the NBA Draft. However, point guard Ryan Boatright returned to school for his senior season and since opening way back in May, UConn has dropped from +4,000 to +8,000 to +10,000 to win the National Championship.

The table below compares the futures from Sportsbook.com, BetOnline and the Greek along with the preseason Top 25 rankings from the USA Today Coaches Poll. This table will be continually updated as other sportsbooks post their odds.

Team

Sportsbook (1/26)

The Greek (11/14)

Ken Pom Ranking (10/31)

Coaches Poll Ranking (10/16)

The Greek (6/4)

BetOnline (5/6)

Sportsbook (5/1)

Kentucky

-125

+300

2

1

+500

+500

+400

Virginia

+800

+5000

8

8

+3500

+3300

+3300

Duke

+800

+800

1

3

+1000

+1000

+850

Arizona

+1000

+800

5

2

+1200

+1600

+1700

Wisconsin

+1000

+800

6

4

+800

+1200

+1300

Gonzaga

+1200

+4000

18

13

+4000

+4000

+5000

Villanova

+2500

+3000

9

12

+3000

+2800

+2700

North Carolina

+3000

+1000

20

6

+800

+1600

+1700

Kansas

+3000

+1500

4

5

+1500

+1400

+1300

Louisville

+3000

+2500

3

9

+2500

+2500

+2700

Wichita St

+5000

+3000

10

11

+3000

+2800

+2700

UCLA

+5000

+5000

13

N/A

+3000

+5000

+6000

Utah

+5000

+12500

42

N/A

+12500

+10000

+20000

Texas

+6000

+3000

19

10

+4025

+3300

+3300

Iowa St

+6000

+3500

25

14

+2000

+3300

+4000

Oklahoma

+7500

+5000

28

19

+3000

+4000

+6000

Notre Dame

+7500

+10000

69

N/A

+10000

+15000

+20000

Ohio St

+7500

+6000

14

20

+6000

+5000

+5000

Butler

+10000

N/A

67

N/A

N/A

+50000

+50000

Illinois

+10000

+15000

38

N/A

+10000

+15000

+30000

SMU

+10000

+4000

36

22

+3500

+3300

+2700

Syracuse

+10000

+5000

11

24

+4000

+3300

+5000

Tennessee

+10000

+10000

61

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Florida

+10000

+2000

7

7

+1800

+1600

+1300

VCU

+10000

+3000

17

16

N/A

+4000

+4000

UConn

+10000

+8000

16

15

+8000

+5000

+8000

San Diego St

+10000

+6500

29

17

+6500

+6600

+6000

'Field'

+10000

+2500

N/A

N/A

+2500

N/A

N/A

Michigan St

+10000

+2500

12

18

+2500

+2500

+4000

West Virginia

+10000

+12500

55

N/A

+10000

+20000

+30000

Maryland

+20000

+12500

33

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Stanford

+20000

+10000

54

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Baylor

+20000

+8000

24

N/A

+8000

+7500

+7500

Georgia

+30000

+12500

48

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Arkansas

+30000

+15000

44

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Cincinnati

+30000

+15000

46

N/A

+15000

+10000

+10000

Indiana

+30000

+10000

26

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Georgetown

+30000

+12500

22

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Oklahoma St

+50000

+17500

21

N/A

+12500

+10000

+10000

Ole Miss

+50000

+30000

88

N/A

+15000

+15000

+10000

Iowa

+50000

+8000

32

25

+6500

+6600

+7500

Northern Iowa

+50000

N/A

70

N/A

N/A

N/A

+50000

Alabama

+50000

N/A

58

N/A

N/A

+20000

+20000

Colorado St

+50000

N/A

93

N/A

N/A

+30000

+30000

Dayton

+50000

+12500

50

N/A

+12500

+10000

+10000

George Washington

+50000

N/A

62

N/A

N/A

+20000

+30000

Oregon

+50000

+6500

35

N/A

+5000

+5000

+7500

LSU

+50000

+15000

73

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Miami (FL)

+50000

+8000

57

N/A

+5000

+6600

+7500

St. John's

+50000

+12500

39

N/A

+10000

+15000

+20000

South Carolina

+100000

+30000

87

N/A

+30000

+30000

+30000

Nebraska

+100000

+6500

34

21

+6500

+6600

+7500

Kansas St

+100000

+12500

31

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Purdue

+100000

+25000

40

N/A

+25000

+20000

+30000

Harvard

+100000

+12500

30

N/A

+12500

+10000

+10000

NC State

+100000

+25000

60

N/A

+15000

+15000

+30000

Louisiana Tech

+100000

N/A

49

N/A

N/A

N/A

+30000

Murray St

+100000

N/A

94

N/A

N/A

N/A

+50000

Texas A&M

+100000

N/A

68

N/A

N/A

+50000

+50000

Providence

+100000

+25000

53

N/A

+12500

+15000

+10000

Michigan

+100000

+5000

15

23

+5000

+3300

+5000

Washington

+100000

+20000

59

N/A

+15000

+30000

+50000

BYU

+200000

+35000

43

N/A

+35000

+30000

+30000

Seton Hall

+200000

+10000

85

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

UNLV

+200000

+12500

82

N/A

+15000

+10000

+10000

Marquette

+200000

+12500

86

N/A

+12500

+10000

+10000

Memphis

+200000

+8000

27

N/A

+8000

+10000

+10000

Xavier

+200000

+25000

66

N/A

+25000

+25000

+30000

Minnesota

+200000

+8000

37

N/A

+8000

+10000

+10000

Arizona St

+200000

+25000

84

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

New Mexico

+200000

+20000

52

N/A

+20000

+20000

+30000

St. Louis

+500000

+12500

81

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Clemson

+500000

+25000

75

N/A

+15000

+20000

+30000

Creighton

+500000

+40000

47

N/A

+35000

+20000

+30000

Auburn

+500000

+45000

137

N/A

+35000

N/A

+50000

Wake Forest

+500000

+50000

104

N/A

+25000

+30000

+100000

St. Joseph's

+500000

+30000

90

N/A

+30000

+30000

+30000

Virginia Tech

+500000

+50000

168

N/A

+25000

+30000

+100000

Colorado

+500000

+12500

63

N/A

+12500

+10000

+10000

Pittsburgh

+500000

+10000

23

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Georgia Tech

+500000

+25000

96

N/A

+20000

+20000

+30000

Boston College

+500000

+50000

134

N/A

+50000

+50000

+50000

UTEP

+500000

N/A

78

N/A

N/A

+10000

+20000

UCSB

+500000

N/A

92

N/A

N/A

N/A

+100000

Missouri

+500000

+12500

98

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

Vanderbilt

+500000

+25000

91

N/A

+25000

+25000

+30000

New Mexico St

+500000

N/A

79

N/A

N/A

N/A

+30000

Richmond

+500000

N/A

51

N/A

N/A

+50000

+50000

LaSalle

+500000

N/A

101

N/A

N/A

+30000

+30000

Florida St

+500000

+12500

41

N/A

+10000

+10000

+10000

St. Bonaventure

+500000

N/A

107

N/A

N/A

N/A

+50000

Illinois St

+500000

N/A

109

N/A

N/A

N/A

+50000

Fresno St

+500000

N/A

114

N/A

N/A

N/A

+50000

Texas Tech

+500000

N/A

125

N/A

N/A

+50000

+50000

UMass

+500000

+12500

74

N/A

+12500

+15000

+20000

USC

+500000

N/A

136

N/A

N/A

+20000

+30000

California

+500000

+25000

72

N/A

+20000

+20000

+30000

Penn St

+500000

N/A

56

N/A

N/A

+30000

+30000

DePaul

+500000

N/A

197

N/A

N/A

+50000

+30000

Northwestern

+500000

N/A

77

N/A

N/A

N/A

+50000

Below was originally posted on October 18, 2014

We’ve seen some interesting futures movement on Duke based on Jabari Parker’s decision to declare for the NBA Draft. Although he has always been expected to be a top-3 selection, Parker was on the fence about leaving school after his freshman season. However, after officially announcing his intentions to leave early Duke moved from a +600 to +850.

It’s also been interesting to monitor the futures of the Kentucky Wildcats. Coach Calipari’s team opened at +1,200 to win the National Championship despite stars like PF Julius Randle and SF James Young declare for the draft. Despite these losses, the Harrison twins, Willie Cauley-Stein, Alex Poythress and Dakari Johnson have all opted to return to school next year. With loads of returning talent and the nation’s second best recruiting class (according to ESPN); the Wildcats are now the favorite to win it all. Not only are the Wildcats the favorite, since June they have actually seen their odds improve from +500 to +300.

On Thursday (10/16) the first USA Today Coaches Poll was released, which is interesting for a number of reasons. Bettors tend to overvalue ranked teams and we’re always curious as to which team’s sportsbooks and pollsters disagree on. Voters for the USA Today Top 25 simply can’t watch every game and they tend to be far less accurate in assessing talent than oddsmakers, which can create excellent early-season fade opportunities.

While Kentucky is the consensus number one team by oddsmakers and pollsters alike, there are a handful of teams with major discrepancies. Virginia opens the season as the nation’s 8th ranked team, but oddsmakers put their title futures at +5000 — tying them for 19th best.

The defending champs, UConn, will start the year as the 15th ranked team despite a number of key losses. According to oddsmakers, the Huskies are tied with unranked teams like Minnesota, Miami, Baylor and Memphis as the 28th best team in the nation.

Lastly we have Michigan State who will begin the season at the nation’s 18th ranked team. Despite losing their top two scorers in G Gary Harris (16.7 PPG) and F/C Adreian Payne (16.4 PPG), Tom Izzo’s squad returns a number of impact players including senior G/F Keith Appling (11.2 PPG and 8.3 RPG last season). With strong coaching and a consistent track record of success, the Spartans have the 8th best odds of winning the National Championship at the Greek.

The final piece of our analysis came when Ken Pomeroy posted his first rankings of the 2014-15 College Basketball season. Pomeroy, who runs the site KenPom.com, rates all 351 Division I men’s basketball programs based on metrics including offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo, and pace. His rankings are typically far more informed than either the AP Top 25 or USA Today Coaches Poll and can help provide additional insight for bettors.

It’s very interesting that The Greek, which is typically considered to be a much sharper sportsbook than either BetOnline or Sportsbook.com, offers an option for the field. Although originally Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) was included in the field, the Greek has updated their odds to list the Rams at +3000. Since taking over as head coach in 2009, Shaka Smart has produced a 137-46 record and led his team to the Final Four in 2011.

Also noteworthy are the numerous discrepancies between the KenPom rankings and the future odds at the Greek. There are currently no odds for teams like Tulsa (45), Boise State (64), Georgia State (65) and Iona (71) at any offshore sportsbook, meaning they would be included as part of the “field”.

It’s also surprising to see that Pomeroy ranks North Carolina at just the 20th best team in the country despite having the 5th best title odds and the #4 ranking in the initial USA Today Coaches Poll. This is because oddsmakers know that North Carolina is an incredibly popular team, and they will take UNC money regardless of the price.

Sleepers?

Oklahoma State seems to be an afterthought for oddsmakers who list them at 175/1 to win the National Championship — the 59th best odds in the nation. Despite these long odds, the Cowboys are ranked by KenPom as the 21st best team in the country. Although they lost their top two scorers in Marcus Smart and Markel Brown, OSU still has plenty of talent on their roster including senior G/F Le’Bryan Nash (13.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and junior G Phil Forte (13.3 ppg).