Cowboys Gameday: Divisional Round

Packers at Cowboys

3:40 p.m. Weekday TV: Ch. 4

Radio: KRLD-FM (105.3), KMVK-FM (107.5, Spanish)

Line: Cowboys by 5

A win would mean ...

The long ordeal is over for Cowboys Nation. Top-seeded Dallas is back in the NFC Championship Game, one win away from the Super Bowl, for the first time since the 1995 season. Dak Prescott becomes the first rookie quarterback to start and win a postseason game for the Cowboys.

A loss would mean ...

Dallas drops to 0-5 in its last five trips to the divisional round of the playoffs. The Cowboys can’t convert the top seed and home-field advantage into a postseason win. They’ll have to live with a 13-3 regular season and the hope more playoff opportunities are ahead.

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SportsDay’s Picks

Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball 28 times for 157 yards against the Packers in a 30-16 win on Oct. 16, 2016. (Louis DeLuca/Staff Photographer)

Brandon George: Nothing against rookie Dak Prescott, but he’s not Aaron Rodgers. No quarterback has played better than Rodgers the last half of the season. Over his last eight games, he has 22 touchdown passes and no interceptions. He’s led the Packers to seven consecutive wins, including a 25-point rout last week against the Giants. Sunday’s game should be high scoring and tight all the way. For that reason, it’s hard for me to not lean toward the NFL’s best quarterback with the game on the line. Rodgers picked apart the Cowboys in the second half of the 2014 divisional playoff game at Green Bay on one healthy leg. Now, he’s at full speed, and the two-time NFL MVP is arguably playing the best football of his career. Packers, 34-31

Kate Hairopoulos: As hot as Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is and will continue to be Sunday at Jerry World, the Packers defense won’t be up for stuffing Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas’ offensive line, who have benefited from the bye week as much as anyone. Zeke rushed for 157 yards in the first meeting between the teams on Oct. 16, but he didn’t score a touchdown. That changes this time, when he rushes for multiple TDs. Dallas’ defense comes up with a much-needed turnover to seal the win, which shouldn’t be surprising anymore. Cowboys, 31-28

Jon Machota: Ezekiel Elliott will be playing Sunday for the first time in 20 days. Will that time off bother him? Doubt it. He went 33 days between his last regular-season game and Ohio State's bowl game in 2015. He went 25 days between games the year before that. The results were pretty good for Elliott and the Buckeyes. He rushed 27 times for 149 yards and four touchdowns against Notre Dame in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl. He went for 230 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries against Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl. He’ll be fine. The best way to contain Aaron Rodgers is to keep him off the field. Feed Zeke early and often. Cowboys, 27-24

David Moore: The Cowboys are coming off the most unexpected regular season in franchise history. Yet there seems to be a sense of impending dread in some quarters. Blame Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay’s quarterback has been so brilliant in these last seven games there’s a growing sense that he alone can lift the Packers to the NFC Championship Game. But here’s the thing. This isn’t Rodgers vs. rookie quarterback Dak Prescott in his first playoff game. This is Rodgers and Ty Montgomery and the Packers offensive line vs. Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys offensive line. Is Rodgers playing at a high enough level to pull off the upset? Yes. Are the Cowboys the more complete team on both sides of the ball? Yes. Take the better team over the hot quarterback. Cowboys, 37-31

Tim Cowlishaw: Aaron Rodgers is scary but that’s not as scary as a fresh, healthy team that can attack Green Bay’s defense consistently and keep Rodgers on the bench for long stretches. Cowboys, 30-17

Rick Gosselin: To beat the Packers, you have to keep the ball away from Aaron Rodgers. The Cowboys have the RB to do that in Ezekiel Elliott. His legs have beaten the Packers once this season. His legs can beat them again. Cowboys, 27-23

You make the call

We want to know who you who think will win this week’s Cowboys game. Enter your score below, and see which team other readers think will take home the “W.” Scores plotted on the lower-right of the chart indicate a predicted Cowboys victory, upper-left indicate a predicted opponent victory. (Note: Only scores below 60 will be shown.)

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Bob Sturm’s scouting report

SituationEdgeIn the know

When the Cowboys run the ball

Edge

We saw what this matchup looked like in October in Green Bay. The Cowboys ran all over the Packers (33 carries for 191 yards) and haven’t run for as many yards since. Green Bay was given credit back then for having a stout run defense, but in reality, the NFL just doesn’t have very many demanding run offenses anymore. Let’s assume that Ezekiel Elliott will be running free as the Packers are forced to use their safeties in more of a pass defense.

When the Cowboys pass the ball

Edge

The location of the Packers’ two solid safeties will be interesting early. We expect they will have to go back and help their substandard corners. If the Cowboys are determined to run and Green Bay is determined to stop them early, it will be interesting to see who budges first. Dak Prescott will have options and matchup chances — most notably Green Bay’s lack of answer for Cole Beasley.

When the Packers run the ball

Edge

Green Bay runs to keep the opposition honest, and with a hobbled Ty Montgomery, it will be very interesting to see if the Packers even bother. Christine Michael has plenty of juice, but they feature him in small doses. Dallas should have no major difficulty with the Packers’ front.

When the Packers pass the ball

Edge

Aaron Rodgers may be playing the best football of his career since mid-November. He last threw an interception on Nov. 13 and has thrown for almost 2,400 yards and 22 touchdowns since. The best answer is to win time of possession and smother his targets with a heavily populated secondary. Without Jordy Nelson, there should be fewer options to consistently produce big plays.

Special teams

Edge

Probably the best way to describe both teams special teams this year is “uneventful.” Neither team will dazzle you in the return game. There is no distinct advantage here with both teams having exceptional kickers and relatively solid coverage units. It could just take one big play from the special teams units to swing a game like this.

Intangibles

Edge

There is no intangible advantage in the playoffs that cannot be said for both teams. Both are playing well and both are determined. Green Bay can claim to have the playoff experience and the more accomplished QB. Dallas can claim the home field, rest, and health advantages. But, in the end, intangibles will not be enough.

Bob Sturm’s spotlight

It’s always interesting to see what happens when a player finds a good home.

Jared Cook had mostly been known as a tight end who can present mismatches because of his downfield receiving attributes. However, after spending four seasons in Tennessee and three more in St Louis, he was considered a tease who would let you down with constant drops while never developing into the force of nature that changes the entire look of an offense.

Meanwhile, Green Bay hasn’t had a mismatch tight end since a major injury to Jermichael Finley shortened his promising career. So, they took a chance on Cook, and after missing two months with an ankle injury, he has helped open up the Packers’ offense.

Cook running down the seams and demanding safety coverage has allowed other Packers to face more favorable coverage looks.

And now he’s catching everything in his vicinity. He is a real weapon now, especially on third down. Expect Byron Jones to try to slow him down.

Sturm’s prediction: Dallas is the most complete team I have seen this season in the NFC, and while it should give anyone pause to deal with Rodgers, I expect the Cowboys to dominate with the ball and force this game into the late stages where the body blows from the big offensive line should contribute to the eventual collapse of a tired Green Bay defense. Cowboys, 35-31