Wouldn't the best case scenario be that the person who's actually on top of the Patriots' draft board falls to them? My guess is that's Chris Long, but obviously I can't say for sure.

I think that if there's a great trade to be made, you make it, but otherwise I don't see the harm in actually using the pick (especially if Gholston doesn't go to the Jets).

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Not necessarily. Best case scenario, Pats realistic top guy is someone with a mid-first grade. If Ryan is on the board, they could move him to some team like Carolina who can leapfrog Baltimore -- who everyone has a good chance of taking Ryan.

Pats then get the player they want in mid-first as well as pick up a 2008 second or something else close to that.

Except you can't pull that #@#% if the other team believes you might take the player; if the JEST want Ryan, why would they trade out if he's still available?

If a team thought the JEST might take Ryan, they'd try to trade up to #5.

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What would likely happen is that Baltimore (if they really like Ryan) would swap picks with the Jets. The Jets aren't going to draft Ryan, but Baltimore knows that New England is probably shopping the pick and there are teams that could leapfrog ahead of Baltimore at 8 and snatch Ryan from underneath them.

In fact, if Atlanta passes on Ryan at 3, I think this is a very likely scenario.

ALP said:

i think best case is macfadden...

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I'd actually rather see the Pats draft Ryan over McFadden if those are their options, and trading down is impossible. Ryan will definitely have trade value this year and next year at this time. You can't say the same about McFadden.

Of course, there's the matter of a big cap hit for a backup QB.....

alvinnf said:

Even if hes gone someone is probably willing to try to move up in front of Balt for Brohm. Balt has to be thinking QB.

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Highly unlikely. Baltimore is thinking QB, but they're not going to draft Brohm a round too early to get one. They could try to trade into the latter part of the round, but at least one, probably two, and possibly all three of Brohm, Henne, and Flacco will be there when they draft in the second round (#38), and there's not a lot separating them. The Ravens might well have Flacco rated as their #2 QB.

Everybody thinks that all these teams are going to be HOT after Matt Ryan, but I don't really see it. It's quite possible that even the Ravens would pass on him at#8. They could land possibly Brohm in the 2nd round (unlikely, but possible). Also they'll probably be able to select from Flacco or Henne. I personally would rather see Ryan taken in the Top 5. It would give the Patriots a chance to get a better player, rather then hoping Ryan falls and trying to make a trade. I'd rather see a Gholston or a Dorsey fall then see Ryan fall to us.

What would likely happen is that Baltimore (if they really like Ryan) would swap picks with the Jets. The Jets aren't going to draft Ryan, but Baltimore knows that New England is probably shopping the pick and there are teams that could leapfrog ahead of Baltimore at 8 and snatch Ryan from underneath them.

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The only risk here, though, is that the JEST then risk having the Pats draft the player they most want.

I'd actually rather see the Pats draft Ryan over McFadden if those are their options, and trading down is impossible. Ryan will definitely have trade value this year and next year at this time. You can't say the same about McFadden.

Of course, there's the matter of a big cap hit for a backup QB.....

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As I have said numerous times, it is exceedingly difficult to trade a rookie. The team to which he's traded would have to find a way to fit him into their rookie cap, without getting the benefit of the cap room associated with the large pick. And if they want to hang on to their own first-round pick, a team might have to jettison half their draft class, if not more, to fit that pick in. That's why this scenario just doesn't happen.

The only risk here, though, is that the JEST then risk having the Pats draft the player they most want.

As I have said numerous times, it is exceedingly difficult to trade a rookie. The team to which he's traded would have to find a way to fit him into their rookie cap, without getting the benefit of the cap room associated with the large pick. And if they want to hang on to their own first-round pick, a team might have to jettison half their draft class, if not more, to fit that pick in. That's why this scenario just doesn't happen.

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He wouldn't be able to be traded before he was signed, for the reasons you mention, but after all the rookies are signed, there would be no obstacle in trading him -- his new team would simply have to fit him under their salary cap, as I'm fairly certain traded players with contracts don't have to fit under the rookie cap (in other words, the rookie salary cap is for signing your rookies. It doesn't preclude you from trading for another one that was accounted for under another team's salary cap). Next year it would be more likely, if the Patriots can swallow the cap hit (Ryan might have to have roster bonuses in lieu of a giant SB). There's some interest in Brady Quinn out there, as there was in Philip Rivers back when SD had he and Brees. If Ryan is deemed better than any quarterback in next year's draft, there would be a strong market.

Neither is at all likely to happen. My point was just that I think there's more value at #7 by drafting Ryan than McFadden.

as I'm fairly certain traded players with contracts don't have to fit under the rookie cap (in other words, the rookie salary cap is for signing your rookies. It doesn't preclude you from trading for another one that was accounted for under another team's salary cap).

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I don't think that's the case. For example:

In the event that a Draft selection is assigned to another Club prior to completion of the Draft, the amount of the Formula Allotment for such selection shall be assigned to the Club receiving the selection under the assignment. A Club may not assign the exclusive negotiating rights to a Drafted Player to another Club if such New Club does not have Room under its Rookie Allocation equal to at least the original Formula Allotment for the player, unless the player consents to such assignment.

What would likely happen is that Baltimore (if they really like Ryan) would swap picks with the Jets. The Jets aren't going to draft Ryan, but Baltimore knows that New England is probably shopping the pick and there are teams that could leapfrog ahead of Baltimore at 8 and snatch Ryan from underneath them.

In fact, if Atlanta passes on Ryan at 3, I think this is a very likely scenario.

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Well, if that is the case, color me happy. That would allow either Gholoston to fall to 7, which would deny him to the Jets as well, or McFadden &/or Ellis &/or Dorsey fall to 7 with a good oppurtunity to trade down and deny one of thsoe players to Jets as well. Which works out well in my mind in all cases.

That paragraph mentions "negotiating rights", which means it applies to unsigned draft picks.

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That's the point I've been trying to make--if you trade the pick, the allotment for that pick goes to the team that uses the pick. If you try to trade a player after you've picked him, the allotment does not transfer, and you can't transfer the rights to that player unless the other team can afford the allotment (they know what it is, but the CBA specifically prohibits the NFL and the NFLPA from publicizing the values).

And, I might add, the rookie cap is for drafted rookies that are drafted by a particular team, received in trade from another team, or signed off waivers from other teams. UDFAs and rookies who clear waivers don't count towards that cap.

That's the point I've been trying to make--if you trade the pick, the allotment for that pick goes to the team that uses the pick. If you try to trade a player after you've picked him, the allotment does not transfer, and you can't transfer the rights to that player unless the other team can afford the allotment (they know what it is, but the CBA specifically prohibits the NFL and the NFLPA from publicizing the values).

And, I might add, the rookie cap is for drafted rookies that are drafted by a particular team, received in trade from another team, or signed off waivers from other teams. UDFAs and rookies who clear waivers don't count towards that cap.

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You keep missing my point. Once Team A signs its draftee to a contract, he can be traded to Team B without regard to Team B's rookie salary cap. Once he's under contract, the rookie isn't treated any differently than any other player for salary cap purposes.

Now just the ordinary salary cap issues apply with trading him....like SB acceleration, which means Team A would be wise to give him a modest SB and large roster bonuses in his contract.

And just to flesh out the scenario, the Patriots draft Ryan #7 and sign him to a 6 year deal, with most of the money coming in form of roster bonuses. Shortly before the trade deadline, the Bears are hopelessly out of the Playoff race and decide it's time for the Rex Grossman era to end. Not really enamored with any of the QBs coming out in 2009, and wanting to get their QB of the future the benefit of learning the offense as soon as possible, offer the Patriots their #1 and #3 picks in the 2009 draft for Ryan.

What would likely happen is that Baltimore (if they really like Ryan) would swap picks with the Jets. The Jets aren't going to draft Ryan, but Baltimore knows that New England is probably shopping the pick and there are teams that could leapfrog ahead of Baltimore at 8 and snatch Ryan from underneath them.

In fact, if Atlanta passes on Ryan at 3, I think this is a very likely scenario.

I'd actually rather see the Pats draft Ryan over McFadden if those are their options, and trading down is impossible. Ryan will definitely have trade value this year and next year at this time. You can't say the same about McFadden.

Of course, there's the matter of a big cap hit for a backup QB.....

Highly unlikely. Baltimore is thinking QB, but they're not going to draft Brohm a round too early to get one. They could try to trade into the latter part of the round, but at least one, probably two, and possibly all three of Brohm, Henne, and Flacco will be there when they draft in the second round (#38), and there's not a lot separating them. The Ravens might well have Flacco rated as their #2 QB.

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you would rather draft Matt Ryan over Darren McFadden? What are you smokin dude?