Ten Questions for Training Camp

For years, the start of training camp for the Warriors has been a cringe-inducing day. It was the day when Monta Ellis (wisely) observed that he was likely too small to be paired with Stephen Curry, when Stephen Jackson explained the meaning of the praying hands and handgun inked on his chest, and when everyone — every year — promised to make defense a priority. When the Warriors officially kick off the 2012-13 season on Monday, the odds of another PR disaster should be at an all-time low and the endless platitudes might have a bit more substance behind them. Team chemistry — with one Latvian exception — appears to be excellent, with 14 players reporting before the official start of camp. The endless drone of the Curry/Ellis debate has been replaced with eager anticipation for the Curry/Thompson debut. And while no one will mistake the Warriors for the Chuck Daly Pistons, the addition of Andrew Bogut gives the team a toughness and defensive presence in the middle it has been missing for decades. Warriors fans never lack optimism on media day — but this year it might be just the beginning of fan expectations, not the high-water mark.

I typically break down Warriors fans into three categories: (1) those new to the team; (2) eternal optimists; and (3) those who derive pleasure from watching their pessimistic predictions confirmed. Of course, category 3 tends to be just a subset of category 2 with particularly well-developed protection mechanisms, because even pessimists would grow frustrated with how consistently this team has slunk below expectations over the past two decades. Warriors fans are repeat offenders when it comes to wishful thinking — and media day typically marks the most unsullied expression of that optimism.

But when the questions start flying, the Warriors optimists typically get their first dose of reality. Answers to some of the more pressing questions in years past have foreshadowed some of the seasons’ biggest problems. It remains to be seen whether the significant-yet-cautious optimism surround this year’s squad escapes the first day of camp intact. My day job will keep me from lobbing in questions myself, but here’s a sampling of what I’d ask:

1. What did Mark Jackson learn in his first season, other than not to make playoff promises? The biggest questions swirling around this team don’t concern its talent or even its health. With his rookie coaching season in the books, the spotlight this year will be on Mark Jackson and his ability to manage the relentless decision points of NBA games. He raised more questions than he answered last season. Does he have a concrete plan for the style of basketball he wants the team to play? Can he manage the Xs, Os, match-ups and timeouts during the game? Is he a highly-paid motivator and talking head, leaving the messy details of coaching to Michael Malone? Can he find a way to turn the roster’s now-considerable talent into more than the sum of its parts? It’ll take Mark Jackson 82 games to answer all these questions, but he’ll start on Monday.

2. How big of an impact will Andrew Bogut’s arrival have on the team? There are a bunch of sub-questions packed into this one. When will Bogut be ready to play? (Early guess is first week of the regular season.) How long will it take Bogut to get comfortable on the court? (He’s taken a few months after his earlier injuries to look 100%.) Will the potentially more up-tempo game of the Warriors open up new aspects of Bogut’s game? (I expect his passing skills to be on full display, as well as his ability to fill the lane on the break.) Just how big of a defensive impact can one player have on a team? (On an already solid defensive team, not much. But on the defensively-mediocre Warriors, he could have an immediate and significant impact on the glass, blocking shots and bodying opposing big men.) The one area where I’m most excited to see Bogut contribute isn’t one tracked in a box score. For the famously soft Warriors, Bogut could serve as a heart transplant. He’s unabashedly physical — inviting contact and returning it in kind. After years watching Biedrins get knocked around (or avoid contact all together) or out-of-position players like Udoh and Turiaf get overpowered, it’ll be refreshing to see a bruising big man finally providing some backbone for this team.

3. How big of an impact will Monta Ellis’ departure have on the team? On both offense and defense, I expect the change to be significant. Offensively, Ellis needed the ball in his hands to be effective and always wanted it in the final minutes of close games. Without Ellis’ ball-movement-killing presence, Curry should be freed up more to play within his comfort zone and the other willing passers on the team (Thompson, Lee, Bogut) should establish a potent inside-out game. On defense, Ellis was always over-rotating and gambling, killing the team’s ability to play honest man-to-man defense. The Curry/Thompson backcourt will produce fewer spectacular steals, but it’ll also give up fewer easy baskets on busted assignments. A stable team defensive system was a pipe dream with Ellis on the court. With his departure (and Bogut’s arrival), they now might have a fighting chance.

4. Is Stephen Curry ready to make the jump — or any jump? There will be a lot of suspense in the Warriors’ preseason games when Stephen Curry is on the floor — but not the kind Peter Guber wants to cultivate for his “entertainment experience.” After the ankle troubles of last season, every jump, cut and stop is a potential disaster for Curry. And if fans are approaching his return with trepidation, I can only imagine how Curry must feel as he regains confidence in his own body. But even if Curry survives the preseason in one piece and demonstrates pre-injury aggressiveness, he’s unlikely to shake major questions regarding his future. Despite showing flashes of brilliance, Curry has yet to prove he has the floor general chops to be a traditional point guard on a night-in, night-out basis. To reach the next level of NBA stardom, Curry needs to demonstrate the leadership, focus and mental toughness typically associated with the best point guards. He needs to cut down on the careless turnovers, the passive half-court play and the occasional head-hanging when things don’t go his way. With his next contract likely to be inked either before the start of the season or immediately after it, the time has arrived for Curry to move from tantalizing potential to consistent production.

5. Is Klay Thompson for real? The Warriors’ rookie closed the 2011-12 season with a spectacular string of games. He unleashed the deadeye shooting everyone expected, but rounded it out with smooth passing, decent slashing and solid defensive effort. The only asterisk on the performance was the context — the Warriors’ post-trade race to the bottom of the standings. We’ve been fooled before with last-month-of-the-season breakouts, but Thompson seems like a safer bet. For starters, as a mid-lottery pick, his production is in line with expectations. The Warriors drafted Thompson to be exactly this type of player. His arrival last season also wasn’t an overnight success. He developed gradually, was given more minutes as his confidence grew and the pro game slowed down, and finally burst onto the scene when the trade opened up minutes (and shots). As a sophomore, Thompson will still have his ups and downs, but I fully expect him to continue the impressive production he debuted last season.

6. Who wins the small forward fight? Mark Jackson sounds willing to entertain one position battle in training camp. The fight for starters minutes at small forward is an interesting mix of experience, potential and reliability. Richard Jefferson brings the best resume to the spot, but is years past his prime and gave the team little during limited minutes last season. Harrison Barnes is the lottery pick and heir apparent at the position, but he’s also a complete unknown. To give him the starting job on day one, without any work in camp, would send the wrong message. As with Thompson last year, Barnes might be brought along slowly. That leaves dependable, well-rounded Brandon Rush in the lead — with just the right mix of veteran experience and youthful explosiveness. But Rush was the anchor of last season’s productive bench squad, so Jackson may be reluctant to move him into the starters. Regardless of who starts, I’d expect Rush to lead the group in minutes (with Barnes second and Jefferson third).

7. Can the team afford to keep Jarrett Jack off the floor? Much like Andrew Bogut, who has played his entire career in the media black hole of Milwaukee, Jarrett Jack hasn’t had major-market exposure for his game. When Warriors fans become familiar with him, my guess is they’ll like what they see. Jack has a workmanlike dependability at the point guard spot — he’s no Steve Nash, but he’s comfortable running a team with few mistakes. His penetration ability and outside shooting keep defenders honest, and he’s a willing passer. Jack may face a challenge for minutes from Charles Jenkins, but I expect the Warriors’ off-season acquisition to log major reserve time at both the 1 and 2. Again, like Bogut, Jack should bring a savvy toughness that the team has been missing for years.

8. Has David Lee peaked? At 29, David Lee is playing the best basketball of his career. With a near-career-high in scoring, solid rebounding numbers and unselfish passing, Lee was the most reliable Warrior last season until the team shut him down post-trade. He’ll be asked to do less this year, with the addition of Bogut and Landry, and that’s a positive development. Given Lee’s high-energy game, he was often gassed in fourth quarters and saw a corresponding drop in production. If the Warriors can play Lee 30-32 minutes a night instead of 37, they should get more out of him in crunch time. He might even start attempting to play defense. Lee’s numbers are likely to drop this season — and he may start slowing physically a bit — but with a dramatically improved supporting cast, I expect Lee to have just a large of impact on the team. After seven years, this should be the year Lee finally makes it to the post-season.

9. Will the rookies and sophomores demand minutes? The Warriors youngest players may get lost in the early excitement of Andrew Bogut’s arrival and Stephen Curry’s return, but they still could demand some attention as the season progresses. Sophomore combo guard Charles Jenkins closed the season strong and had a breakout summer league performance. There won’t be many minutes left over for him in the backcourt, but he could carve out a niche for himself with his bulldozer-like penetration. Three rookies also have a legitimate shot at earning minutes as specialists. Festus Ezeli is ready to run through a wall for the Warriors, and should bring a strong physical presence to the back-up center position. If he’s willing to throw his body around, he’ll likely leap-frog Andris Biedrins in the depth chart. Undrafted Kent Bazemore initially got attention for his ball-hawking defense, but earned a roster spot thanks to the all-around game he showed in Las Vegas. If he can translate that game to the NBA, he could see stopper minutes — much the way Dominic McGuire was deployed early last season. Finally, second round pick Draymond Green remains a wild card. He’s a tweener, but has the intangibles the help minimize size discrepancies. He has a great nose for the ball off the glass, is relentless around the basket and can keep the offense flowing with his passing skills. The Warriors shuffled him through a variety of roles in the summer league. I’ll be curious to see if he can find a comfortable niche on the regular season roster.

10. Will Andris Biedrins hit a free throw this season? I wish I was joking. Biedrins was 1-9 last year. There’s only one place to go — to zero — if he continues his not-so-slow descent into irrelevance. The team has gone out of its way in years past to put Biedrins in a position to succeed. The team had to try, given its other options at center. This year — with a proven veteran and promising youngster — there’s no need to handle Biedrins with kids gloves. If he’s active, clearing the glass and not shying away from contact, he should earn some back-up minutes. If he continues to play like he did last season, I expect long stretches of DNP-CD in his game log.

These individual questions will shape many of the narratives of the Warriors’ season, but there’s one overriding question that trumps them all. Will the Warriors finally live up their fans’ optimism? As we start another year of Warriors basketball, hope springs eternal.

Adam Lauridsen

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I tend to be a type 2 Warrior fan…every offseason I tell myself to not let the warriors homerism PR get to me, but yet, every October I find myselff giddy wity excitement and optimistic for the Playoffs.

Here’s to building my castle of hope on an unproven PG’s shaky ankles, a top 5 (imo) center that hasn’t played even a pick up game for nearly a year, and roster full of rookies and second years. Go Dubs!

CallMeCohan

Here’s to building my castle of hope on … a beach, in a vast horizon of white sands.
When the high water comes, it all fades away. Just like that.
Like the Warriors. That’s what they are — For two freakin’ decades.

Let the game begins!

CallMeCohan

Good morning, Ray

FeatherRiverDan

go warriors…another new beginning and get after it…

commish

Excellent work, Adam (as usual). Nothing of consequence to add. Time will tell. On a somewhat non-related issue, I was watching “Real Sports with Bryant Gumbal”. There was a section on Magic’s involvement with buying the Dodgers. Guber was all over the place. It was an interesting “take” on the uber-guber 1%-er’s. Smiling all the way to the Cayman Islands.

harbinger

Fine writeup, but it is Daly.

Adam Lauridsen

Harbinger — fixed, thanks.

MarvAlbert’sRug

Right on the money as usual, Adam.

To my mind, the biggest question is Curry’s ankle. As a tweener fan between types 2 and 3, I almost expect the ankle to give out before the ink on the new contract has fully dried. This is why the J.Jack acquisition was so important for this year’s Dubs squad. Very nice roster with actual players at all five spots.
Hopefully, the tax dodger is only one more “trillion” away from that much needed buyout. . .

ivanbe

Great post. Adam’s the best in the business.

I am still fairly skeptical of Mark Jackson, but I’m not sure if it’s well-placed. I thought his rotations last year, prior to the big trade, were actually well-timed and sensible (at least compared to Keith Smart’s). The defense didn’t improve, and the Monta ISO experience was a dose of the same-old, but given the roster and the injuries I’m not sure if he should be judged too harshly for those faults.

This entire season will be about the health of Curry and Bogut. Every minute they’re on the floor, Warriors fans will be holding their collective breath. I think the only guarantee for this season is that Bob Myers is going to grow some gray hair.

Inside9

Its going to be a blast!! There will be so much growth to watch and so many possibilities. Yeah, playoffs would be great but I am going to enjoy watching the players and the team establish an identity.

ht

Good and informative post. What about Landry? Do you not think he will have any impact?

I think this team can be as good as the Warriors team that won it all back in 1974 I believe it was over Washington. A very balanced team with different weapons to use against different teams.

sartre

Great post Adam. I see fans falling along a continuum with overly optimistic at one end and overly pessimistic (suffering learned helplessness after enduring years of dashed hopes) at the other. The haters (angry narcissists with the emotional intelligence of newts) aren’t fans at all and live for the team’s failure so they’re a freak show sidebar. I think most here shift back and forth in the middle of the continuum and are generally measured and cautious in their expectations. As sonorcal notes, it is hard not to surrender to more optimism during the off-season and it is fun to do so knowing that the subsequent reality testing will inevitably make for an emotional roller coaster ride.

In terms of the biggest question marks. I’m hopeful re Curry’s health and ability to continue improving as a PG. I’m cautiously optimistic that Bogut will get himself healthy and not suffer another freak injury this coming season. I do have a nagging concern that his now extensive injury history might have chronically blunted his physical tools. MJ’s ability as a coach worries me the most but Malone’s presence helps temper the worst fears on that front.

I think he fails to recognize how good a defender Rush is (particularly at SG) when singling out Bogut as the only good defensive player on the roster.

walkerp

Great stuff, Adam. Thanks a lot. Lots of questions and while I like to think about them, I am keeping my mind blank when it comes to actual answers. Answers lead to that optimism you were talking about and that leads to hope which, with the Warriors, usually leads to pain, which leads to anger and eventually you get to the Dark Side.

I admit I fall under category of overly optimistic – I’m no b-ball expert – just a fan, but I like the 2012-13 team on paper. We have one of the best shooting back-court in basketball. Thompson and Curry – when in zones – will give opposing coaches ulcers. You are going to see a lot of treys dropping, I’m sure of it. I like our front court too, Bogut, Lee, and Rush, all nice players. Rush, arguably, could be one of best shooters on team, we saw hints on that last year. One thing that will be different this year is we will get some offensive rebounds with the big fellow in the middle. if only Andres could get second wind somehow, he’s a terrific rebounder, or at least was, but I guess I’m just about the only go left who thinks AB can add to value of team.

SK71

Hey Adam, great commentary as always above. And, total non-sequitur, congrats on the engagement, saw the notice in the Chronicle this weekend!

RickP

Most drivers slow down to look at a wreck. That’s the kind of W fan I am.

It’s October, traditionally the best month of the year for W fans.

So, I’m optimistic, or at least as optimistic as I get all year.

I’m less worried about Curry’s ankle. That’s because the early reports are that it is in good shape, but also because he’s got backup. I’d have been worried if they hadn’t signed Jack.

I think there is more reasonable concern about Bogut. Not just because his ankle is only “on schedule”, but because there may not be any adequate backup. Not a knock on Festus, just recognition that he’s a rookie. I expect nothing from Biedrins. If he plays well, I think I’ll be like “where were you when we needed you?”.

I also agree that there is legitimate concern about Jackson. I think he lost a few games early last season with poor coaching decisions. He exudes confidence in his own decisions, but I’m not so sure he’s earned it. We’ll know soon enough.

I’m not as concerned about the rest of the team, as long as Jackson runs a meritocracy (I don’t know that he did that last year). There is quite a bit of talent at every position except backup 5.

Adam Lauridsen

SK71 — Thanks! Going to be a busy fall…

I yiyi yi

I guess I’m a little of all three, Want them to succeed, crushed when they don’t, Laugh when they su*k (cryin inside)
will this be the year? when I just remain a homer?

CMC, ok I’ll concede you (most likely) are the CC of old, had I known that I would not have insulted you…My Bad sorry. There have been trolls masquerading as you. I too have been sicken by the last two decades and maybe not practicing the Buddha’s teachings of patience and tolerance, when participating on this blog.

Oh and by the way the names Phil not Ray

To the new beginning…yes hope does spring eternal….Go warriors

I yiyi yi

Adam, getting hitched? Congrats….My hope for the best

sartre

Congratulations Adam on the happy news!

purvisshort

Adam,
Love your thoughts on Biedrins. What a disappointment! He and Monta were going to be our future.

Yoda

Great summary Adam. I expect, unfortunately, that the first question won’t be answered too favorably. I rather hope Jackson is the motivator with Malone the guy making the calls, because I thought Jackson was inconsistent and reactive last year. I also think his players will tune him out if he isn’t a guy with good game planning skills, because all that rah rah wears on you.

As for fan categories, where is the fairly realistic guy who figures the Warriors aren’t going to be good but it’s NBA basketball, it’s his team for years now, and so he roots and gets grumpy doing it? I too am cautiously optimistic, but Bogut and Curry have to be on the court for this team to be better than average, and that’s still an open question.

Still, I’m looking forward to the season in a different way than in most past years.

sartre

Some observations from the Tweedia Day live stream interviews.

All the players seem very grounded in reality and devoid of hype and ego. This is an articulate and professional group of individuals. RJ really spoke well and with clarity (worth watching), traits that Bogut shares with him. Both look destined to be key veteran leaders in the locker room. Jack impressed as a bundle of energy who prides himself on his toughness and ultra-competitiveness. The rooks were duly excited and differential. Rush is very uncomfortable with media interviews (keeping his responses short and giving the impression that he couldn’t wait to get out of the spotlight). Beans looked unhappy and didn’t display any of his former lighthearted demeanor until Bogut came up and gave him a fooling around hug from behind. That immediately marked Bogut for me as someone who is psychologically savvy – recognizing that Beans might feel uneasy and put upon when re-engaging with the media and making a point of relaxing him and sending out a public message that he is accepted by one of the team leaders.

The Oracle

The other questions is how long will it take for all these new and young players to mesh? MJ will have a lot to do with that, but so will the player leadership and at this point I’m not sure who is going to step into that role? Lee, Bogut, Curry? Or someone else?

Adam Lauridsen

I yiyi & Sartre — thanks!

DeaconBlue

Adam, to an excellent column let me add this 11th and 12th questions:

which Carl Landry are we going to get?
the tiger of 3-4 years ago or slow/slowing version of the past 2 — this is important because he is IMHO to be DLee’s first backup and if he can give us 12-18 quality minutes, he can free David from those long draining nights which he has given us these past two years…efforts which are treasured but come at a real cost to his last third of season effort.

what kind of chemistry do Stef/David/Bogut cook up?
if these guys click–and here i am having visions of rolling Hi-Low with multiple backdoor cuts and double screens– we are almost sure of playoffs — a phrase i haven’t used in close to 20 years!

the Deacon

Our Team

Adam,

Pre-Nup please: “Now, therefore, in consideration of Adam’s years of hard blogging work and in recognition that he was married to the Warriors and its blog long before he agreed to marry me, the undersigned irrevocably agrees to waive any demand, complaint, or even forceful urging that Adam cease or curtail in any manner his support of the Warriors and/or involvement with the Fast Break Blog.”
Executed: Mrs. Adam Lauridsen.

Otherwise, they always turn on you on things like this after the marriage. Please, Adam, while you still have leverage!

monsta

Great news. A center court wedding at the Western Conference finals, now that would be memorable.

Our Team

No way CMC is the old CC imo. Not the same writer/thinker.

Otis

I like Bazemore, Jenkins, Landry, Jack, and Ezeli.
All bench player with skills, heart and attitude.

bryhsiao

Adam, imo, Monsta is right on
you should just go reserve/request that center court at Oracle. ( I bet nobody book it yet according to warriors record the last 20 years :D)
Get it cheap while you can 🙂

Slimman

The way I see it, all of the question marks we have will be resolved this season. I am most skeptical of Mark Jackson, but considering what he was dealing with last year (tank, ahem) he gets a mulligan. If there is no success this year, they must dump him quickly and find a top-tier replacement; both of the Van Gundy’s are without a team ferchristsakes.

As far as Bogut and Curry it is a tougher call. They are both clearly spectacular players…. wait for it…. IF healthy. The Curry contract is tricky, because they need to ink an extension or trade him and move on with life. since there isn’t better to be had in trade, they should see if they can save some $$$ on the contract and just extend him, at least imho.

I was looking at the Lakers starting squad and the Clippers shiny new bench and got a little discouraged, but if Harrison Barnes comes out at season’s end looking good and we get bench production out of our rookies I will be very happy.

Still setting the goal as a playoff appearance, anything less is failure, regardless of how good the rest of the West has gotten this off-season too…

Late to the party. Congrats !! Well deserved but always remember your first love is here 🙂

Ron

Hope to see Biedrens often listed on the bottom of the boxscore as INACTIVE. Hopefully his expiring contract will entice some buyer.

rigged

A question to you Adam: Is your future better half a Warrior fan?

Anyways, best wishes and God bless.

meir34

For the most part I agree with the questions you raise Adam. Editorializing on Monta not withstanding (he played a very different game with Milwaukee after the trade-having been asked to do so by his new coach).

Lee’s stats may well be less, but his play should improve from it’s already top 10 PF in the NBA (by most accounts) with a legit center alongside. He’ll never be a top shot blocker or 1 on 1 low post defender, but he has enormous offsetting skills. His mid range shot is superb, his rebounding very good, his passing for a PF, excellent. Bogut, I always liked before his injuries. Worth always remembering is that Milwaukee could see Monta’s play, good and not so good, under our system and talent, and preferred to get Monta to keeping Bogut.

3 will take care of itself over the season, but clearly we are trying to make up for our weakness in that position, star-wise, with depth and flexible positional play. It’s still one of our weakest positions but with Barnes we clearly hope we have addressed it for the future.

Klay was incredibly impressive for a late season developing rookie 2. He could become our star player of the future if all goes well. But as it is, by nature of using an incomplete sophomore there are questions.

Point guard is still, along with Center, our biggest question. Not only health of both Curry and Bogut, and after 7 injuries I’m very concerned, but in terms of what system we’ll employ to take advantage of Curry’s shooting but minimize his weak driving, ball handling and most of all defense against speedy counterparts. Hints suggest Jackson and Malone are well aware of this and plan an offense utilizing swinging positional players at 4 positions. Point Guard included. Jack is a big pick up, but I’m not sure he’s a starting PG on a playoff team, if that is needed.

We’d best hope Bogut stays healthy. Ezeli will be fun to watch develop. Our depth at most positions is clearly one of our strengths.

If all of the non-playoff teams improve as their offseason moves suggest they will, a lot of them will get wins against playoff teams with more regularity than in the recent past and it may take way fewer wins to make the playoffs than most commentators are assuming. Luck may be the determining factor as to which of 4 or 5 teams will make the playoffs. Improvement from our record of last year should de facto improve. After all, if not throwing games in the last part of the year, we were generously using bench and young players. All goes well, especially Bogut’s health, and we should make the playoffs anywhere from slots 5 to 8.

sartre

Free pizza yay!

Jack could be the wedding rapper in addition to pre-nup contract negotiator and a beaming Preacher MJ would naturally conduct the ceremony.

marko

Question 1[a]: Will Malone be pitching for a shot at a head job? It’s hard to tell who Malone is when he has been hidden behind a head-coach so often. My recollection is that the Cavs went 9-10 deep during Malone’s tenure (but that might be Brown) although it tigetened-up after LeBron skipped. The longer rotation might play well with this year’s club.