The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

This species breeds in brushy prairies, forest edges, and even Christmas tree farms. It is, therefore, adapted to colonizing new areas, an attribute it will need for the future. Audubon’s climate model projects that the summer climate space for this dapper little sparrow will decrease by 52% and shift by 82%, leaving only 18% of the current core available by 2080. The winter climate space in the United States may increase, but most Clay-colored Sparrows spend their winters south of the US-Mexican border.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.