Klay Thompson’s most interesting summer continues: He’s worth $16M a year now? What it means for the Warriors and for the Kevin Love talks

Klay Thompson, through no actual recent action of his own, just became one of the most interesting—and interested—men in the NBA world.

Thompson isn’t due to hit restricted free agency until next summer, and LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony are this year’s current obsessions.

But Thompson’s market just exploded right before our eyes anyway.

Essentially, the Warriors’ three-year veteran just became a $16-million-a-year value, in a flash of other people’s contract agreements.

How nice for Thompson, right? He spends the first part of summer as the player Minnesota most wants—and the Warriors to this point will not surrender–in trade talks for Kevin Love.

And this week Thompson sees two other guys re-set the price for multi-dimensional young wing players in a boom-boom market.
Yes, it all could have some very significant repercussions for his Warriors situation and for the Warriors’ roster two or three years into the future.

These are two players generally in Thompson’s experience/talent peer group (or below him), and certainly neither fits alongside Stephen Curry as comfortably as Thompson has for several seasons.
Or can defend Tony Parker and Chris Paul the way Thompson has.

And… Hayward got a “mini-max” $15.75-million average salary in his new deal while Parsons got a $15-million average, with Utah and Houston deciding whether to match those deals.

So what does it mean? The Warriors and Thompson can negotiate an extension this summer (it must be signed by Oct. 31 and if agreed to, wouldn’t start until the 2015-2016 season).
Now the parameters are all but locked in.

If Thompson and his agent were contemplating a $12 million average (still pricey!) before the Parsons and Hayward deals, that’s outdated now.

Post-Parsons/Hayward, Thompson’s next deal has to start at his maximum level, which is estimated to be slightly more than $15 million next year for a player of Thompson’s experience level.

Has to start there, and has to average about $16-17 million overall, unless Thompson’s career collapses, which it probably won’t.

And that raises a few issues…

Question: With Curry set at an $11.4 million average the next three seasons, how will he feel about Thompson making so much more?
Answer: Curry probably would be fine with it for a few years, since Curry understands he took a lesser deal two years ago when he had the recurring ankle issues.
Curry will get his monster money in a few years and he knows it.

Question: With the long-term commitments the Warriors already have made to Curry, Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and David Lee, can the franchise afford this kind of Thompson deal?

Answer: More and more, I’m hearing that the Warriors brass has game-planned for Thompson’s deal heading into the stratosphere starting in July 2015.

And now that Thompson’s market is set, in one way it simplifies the Warriors’ timeline.

They know Thompson probably won’t take anything less than the max. That’s a given now.

It’s not about putting pressure on Thompson to do it now or else risk losing out—he cannot take less than Hayward got, just cannot.

So the Warriors don’t have to do anything now.

If the Warriors just wait until Thompson hits restricted free agency next year, they can quickly give the mini-max deal to Thompson then.

Or they can let somebody else offer it to Thompson (for lesser annual raises) and then the Warriors can match it.

There is not much room for negotiation any more. It’s just timing. And that, for now, the Warriors still control.

Last question: Does Thompson’s ballooning long-term price make it more likely that the Warriors would be willing to put him into a Love deal?

Last answer: You’d initially think so.
How can they fit Love’s expected massive deal in with Thompson and all the rest, even if Lee deal goes to Minnesota in the projected trade?
Wouldn’t Thompson have to go, too?
But again, I’ve heard that the Warriors believe they don’t get into title contention with Love unless they keep Thompson, too.

I’m told the Warriors have done the spreadsheet work and believe Thompson can still be squeezed in.

Now this doesn’t mean that Thompson is untouchable… and if the details can be worked out, I believe the Warriors would consider putting Thompson into a Love offer… if that’s what it would take, ultimately. They wont like it, but they’d think about it.

Still, the Warriors front office is generally planning for many years with Thompson, that’s the word for now, and it includes Thompson at $16 million a year.

Unsaid: I think the Warriors can fit Thompson’s long-term money into this… only if they can move either Lee’s or Iguodala’s contract before then.

And if Love comes on board, it’d take the off-loading of both Lee (in the trade) and Iguodala (at some point) to fit Thompson’s new market rate, I believe.

That’s a lot of pieces all put in motion without Klay Thompson doing much of anything, except watch his stock price go through the roof.

The Warriors could probably move both Lee and Iggy’s contacts right now, offering them for Love, Brewer and Martin. I’d rather do that than a deal involving Thompson; especially now that GSW has a tall, defensive PG in Livingston that it can pair off the bench with Martin.

PeteyBrian

Tim,
I believe Ric Bucher reported on Twitter that the W’s had nixed a Barnes for Afflalo + 1st rounder offer from Orlando a while back. Your thought on your next rant, please.

Parsons and Hayward getting near superstar deals. Absolutely insane. Although Klay is better than both of them, he doesn’t warrant more than $12m either, at his current level. If Klay’s going to demand $15-16m/year, might as well pull the trigger and trade him now for Kevin Love. Skilled big men are much harder to find than guards. Besides, defensively, Livingston can take over the SG position.

Lol

No way minny wants those two, why would they want them when they can get better deals for love. The pairing is good tho.

Lol

But Livingston only made 1 3pter last year….

Lol

Lol were screwed if lebron goes to clevland because it’s basically love for wiggins and now Cleveland becomes a powerhouse, and we pay Thomson 15+ mil.

Dre’ Reavis

Wow. You really want Kevin Love.
Klay would probably take a 4 year/ 48 million dollar deal to stay with the Warriors. I mean…why wouldn’t he be playing for championships? You think Hayward is going to sniff a championship?

benbrung

Post-injury Livingston has turned himself into a textbook back-up point guard. I don’t think it’s accurate anymore – if it ever was – to even refer to Livingston as a combo guard let alone a shooting guard.

thecity2

“Unsaid: I think the Warriors can fit Thompson’s long-term money into this… only if they can move either Lee’s or Iguodala’s contract before then.”

Either? I think Lee is a given, and you would still need to dump Iguodala or Bogut (preferably Bogut) to make it work.

Bigmouth

Klay’s better than Hayward, that’s for sure. It blows my mind that guy got a max deal. But I’m not convinced he’s better than Parsons.

Bigmouth

Out of curiosity, do you buy Iggy’s incredibly high RAPM and xRAPM ratings?

thecity2

Do I think he’s literally the best player in the league? No. Do I think he is immensely valuable everywhere he’s been? Absolutely.

I mean, if a guy like Love gets criticized for not taking his team to the playoffs, Iguodala is the opposite of that. Every team he’s been on he made significantly better. Philadelphia and Denver completely fell apart when they lost him. The Warriors would too, or they would revert to a 40+ win team, not 50+.

Iguodala at $12M a year is an absolute bargain.

Bigmouth

Yes, that’s what I was asking. I completely agree he’s enormously valuable. I was just surprised to see him ranked #1 in RAPM and #3 in xRAPM.

thecity2

His defensive contribution is so enormous. When you look at the Warriors, it’s astonishing to me that most (casual) fans still think of them as some kind of offensive juggernaut with only passable defense.

Twinkie defense

He is a big point guard. But being big (and defensive minded) allows him to guard twos, and that’s often how positions get defined – by who you guard.

The great thing about Livingston is, whether you call him a one or a two, he can line up with either Steph or Klay and we’ll have shooting, playmaking, and defense covered.

Patrick Danna

I totally agree with Grey’s point here! You can’t pay Klay dramatically more than Steph & the W’s would be better served to allocate that kind of money into a difference maker PF like Love. With the W’s getting Livingston & having Minnesota include a young, athletic combo guard with shooting range/defense like Lavine along with Love/Martin for Klay/Lee/2015 1st the time is right to pull the trigger on the deal!

Patrick Danna

And the W’s front office needs to be bold here & go for it, just like Billy Beane and the Samardzija trade where he wasn’t afraid to give up a top prospect like Addison Russell!

Bigmouth

Indeed. It’s remarkable to think we have three of the best defensive players in basketball in Iguodala, Green, and Bogut. And if we trade Lee and Klay for Love, I’m confident the latter can fill the offensive void created by the departure of the former.

That Man

Never would he take $12 per year! His salary floor is now a max deal. He is the second best 2 guard in the league right now.

BananaSpartan

I don’t think the Warriors want to count on Livingston being a starter (or averaging more than 25 minutes per game). He’s lucky to still be playing, with the injuries he’s suffered. I think playing him 35 minutes a game would ensure an injury.

Also, he’s not a reliable shooter outside of the elbows. He’s smart enough not to take those outside shots, and he’s with a team that has more than enough guys to take those outside shots. He likes to work his way inside and can get himself to the foul line.
He’s actually rather opposite from Jarrett Jack. He’s much taller, much better defender, doesn’t pound the ball for 10+ seconds at a time (i.e., he moves the ball rather quickly), and he’s not a good outside shooter. His similarities to Jack are that he is a good ball handler, can play both guard spots, and he’s a floor leader. From what I can tell, he seems to be a really cool dude like Jack was here.

benbrung

I see what you are saying but using him to replace Thompson – regardless of how you label the position – decreases his value to the Warriors. I’m sure the flexibility to play him alongside Curry was part of what made Livingston attractive to the Warriors but this is a only a dangerous tandem if Livingston is mostly handling the ball because of his ability to collapse defenses that can’t afford to collapse with Curry (or potentially Love) open on the perimeter.

The team is much better, though, with Curry handling most of the point duties. He poses a unique challenge to defenses who have to stretch to defend him nearly to half court and also must collapse off the ball to stop him from penetrating. That makes perimeter shooters and off-ball cutters (I’m thinking of you Harrison) more valuable alongside him.

Livingston isn’t a great off-ball cutter and he surely becomes a guy you leave open on the perimeter. It takes a lot of pressure off the defensive rotations if their main close-out responsibility on Livingston is to stop him from driving.

Thompson can destroy defenses who rotate late and is starting to become a real threat to teams who sell-out to run him off the 3-point line. If you had to replace him, you’d probably be better off with a cheaper and less skilled stand-still shooter than with Livingston

I think Livingston is worth every penny of the MLE leading the bench unit, running the point and defending alongside Curry. However, he provides the least amount of value as a replacement for Thompson alongside Curry at point. That’s the much more long-winded version of what I was trying to say.

PeteyBrian

Draymond’s deal needs to be decided on right when Klay’s deal comes up…

Bigmouth

Livingston has actually improved his movement off the ball. That plus a decent mid-range jumper has made him more threatening on offense.

As you say, however, defenders know they can take a step or two off him in crunch time. And I agree, he’s much better in the JJ role than as a starter.