Jobs Figures Lift Election Prospects of Democrats ; Improvements in U.S. Could Help Counter Polls and International Crises

Article excerpt

The improvements that were announced on Thursday kindled hopes of
a lift to the party's prospects in this fall's midterm elections.

While the United States jobs report for June sent stock markets
soaring as investors celebrated another sign of a rebounding
economy, voters are hardly so easily moved.

Yet for President Obama and congressional Democrats, the numbers
that were released on Thursday kindled hopes of a lift to their
party's downbeat prospects in this fall's midterm elections.

Even as international crises dominate the news and the attention
of the White House and Congress, the economy continues to be the
main concern of most voters, polls show. So Mr. Obama, who struggles
daily to balance the two imperatives, on Thursday appeared at a
local hub for technology innovators and hailed the hiring report as
evidence of a positive trend.

On the eve of Independence Day at a firm called 1776, the
president appealed to Republicans"'economic patriotism" to work with
him to strengthen the economy. But his main audience was voters: Mr.
Obama expressed hope that "the American people look at today's news
and understand that, in fact, we are making strides. We have not
seen more consistent job growth since the '90s."

In effect, Mr. Obama is trying to do within months what he has
not been able to do in the five years since the recession officially
ended: persuade most Americans of the economy's comeback from the
near collapse of the global financial system. The June jobs report -
- showing 288,000 new hires, the unemployment rate down to 6.1
percent and positive revisions to the April and May jobs numbers --
gave the White House and congressional Democrats grounds for
optimism.

Republicans, however, remain confident of winning control of both
chambers of Congress for the final two years of Mr. Obama's
administration, and emphasized other, negative data -- the
president's continued slump in the polls, and a majority's
disapproval of his overall job performance as well as his handling
of the economy. Reince Priebus, the Republican Party chairman, in a
statement, said "millions of our fellow Americans think the American
dream is slipping away because they can't find good jobs in the
Obama economy."

And, Republicans argue, the four months left until November are
too few to shift the political winds Democrats face.

"Years of past data tell us the election environment in an off-
year election is set by June or July," said Bill McInturff, a
Republican pollster. "With the president's ratings lower than they
were in October of 2010" -- a month before the previous midterm
elections, in which Republicans scored big gains -- "the Democrats
will be facing very difficult political terrain this fall."

Democrats acknowledge that they have a midterm disadvantage
typical for the party that holds the White House. …

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