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Introduction
In accordance with the guidelines and mandates
it has received from member Governments, the secretariat of the
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean has
focused in recent years on the analysis of how to approach
development in the 1990s and beyond. Its core proposal has been
cumulatively expressed in various documents, most recently in
Social Equity and Changing Production Patterns: An Integrated
Approach, which was submitted for consideration at the
Commission's twenty-fourth session (April 1992);.
Changing production patterns with social
equity is the frame of reference and the linchpin for most of the
Commission's work, as exemplified by recent contributions in the
areas of external debt, the environment and education. The
Commission's work on population also falls within this context.
It is especially fitting, in view of the forthcoming
International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo,
September 1994); and the Latin American and Caribbean Regional
Conference on Population and Development (Mexico City, April
1993); to present the most recent results of the Commission's
activity in this field.
The International Conference on Population and
Development will take place in the larger context of the priority
agenda of the United Nations for economic and social development,
of which environmentally sustainable development, the fight
against poverty and the equality of women in the development
process are key components. The discussion of the population
variables presented herein therefore recognizes the crucial
interrelationship between these three topics and population
considerations as such.
Core elements
The document is intended to contribute, first
of all, to discussion and debate among member Governments on the
topics of population and development, and it therefore seeks to
portray the facts and trends objectively and to make further
advances in interpreting them. The ultimate aim is to provide
useful tools for policy-makers in the area of population, since
such policies are essentially national in that they reflect each
country's individual decisions. Moreover, it also seems useful to
emphasize those aspects of population variables, such as problems
concerning migration, which can most relevantly be addressed
through regional and international cooperation.
The discussion of the topic is grounded in a
solid basis of fact. This consideration is particularly important
in view of the profound changes observed in Latin American and
Caribbean population dynamics over the past two decades. These
changes have been so far-reaching that projections of population
size, growth and structure from the 1970s and 1980s have proved
very wide of the mark, and have demonstrated the need for
constant revision. The initial results of the census round of the
1990s only reaffirm this need. These changes in demographic
behaviour have rich and varied dimensions. Life expectancy at
birth –as an indicator of mortality– rose from 56 to 67
years between the early 1960s and the late 1980s, and the average
number of children per woman fell from 6.0 to 3.4 over the same
period. Equally significant changes have occurred in the
proportion of children and elderly, in the percentage of the
population residing in urban areas, in rates of female
participation in the workforce and in other indicators. In a more
qualitative sense, attitudes are shifting with regard to
procreation; to the new models, composition and role of the
family; and to changes in the social status of women. These
changes comprise a highly mixed picture of population dynamics by
country, so that regional averages are of little use in depicting
each country's individual situation. Thus, for example, while the
average growth rate was about 2% in the 1980s, values by country
ranged from less than 1% in some to over 3% in others (1);. Even more
important is the heterogeneity within each country by social
stratum, area of residence, educational level and, in many cases,
ethnic group. In some countries, for example, infant mortality in
segments with little education doubles and even triples the rate
for those at the opposite end of the educational spectrum.
This process has been accompanied by a
wide-ranging debate in the region on the relationship between
demographic growth and economic growth, in an effort to identify
causal relations and to draw policy conclusions from them. The
debate can hardly be considered settled from the theoretical
standpoint, since analysts are still finding causal relations in
opposite directions and, especially, of opposite signs. Indeed,
population growth has been identified by some as the main
obstacle, and by others as a stimulus, to economic growth. In
practice, however, it is widely agreed that policy decisions
should reflect a pragmatic approach that avoids simplistic
formulas of either sign. There is also broad consensus in
recognizing that higher population size or growth increases
pressure on the provision of basic services and the use of space
and natural resources. It is also recognized that the quality of
human resources, for purposes of development, is of equal or
greater importance than their quantity, but that opportunities
for training are reduced when the population's quantitative
increase is significant.
This theoretical debate has influenced the
discussion about how Governments should approach population
dynamics vis-à-vis their economic development concerns. However,
other factors are also important and should be taken into account
at the governmental and, more broadly, the societal level. In
United Nations forums, Governments have supported as an
inalienable individual right the freedom to decide on
reproductive behaviour, and have pledged to ensure its effective
exercise. Surveys and other research have found that the majority
of the population wishes to exercise this right, but that a large
segment of this majority cannot do so, owing to a lack of
information and material means. The existence of this unmet
demand may constitute the most important grounds for concern and
–when it is so decided– for public action through
population policies. Since the aforementioned unmet demand is
found mainly in poor strata, socio-economic inequity extends to
what could be termed demographic inequity (2);.
Governments should therefore consider, among
their initiatives to help poor individuals and families to
improve their situation, measures directly aimed at overcoming
demographic inequity.
Furthermore, the predominance of
high-fertility reproductive patterns in poor strata in itself
promotes the transmission of poverty from generation to
generation. In poor families with many children, including
households headed by women, the attention received by each child
in terms of health, nutrition and education is deficient; this
puts poor children at a disadvantage for successfully integrating
themselves into the labour market once they reach adulthood, and
hence they tend to remain trapped in the same condition of
poverty as their parents. All of this implies that, within a
sufficient time-frame, the facilitation of individual decisions
on reproductive patterns, which is tantamount to overcoming
demographic inequity, will directly help to overcome inequity in
its broadest, socio-economic sense. The above-mentioned
considerations on respect for individual rights and elimination
of inequity are especially relevant to the study of the status of
women, whose difficult social situation in both senses is
particularly marked.
In sum, there is a clear compatibility between
measures to help the poorest strata realize their desire for
smaller families and the requirements of changing production
patterns. Having fewer children will help these families and the
State to concentrate resources and efforts on improving the
quality of human resources, which is one of the pillars of
changing production patterns with social equity.
Among the demographic changes recorded in
recent decades are those relating to the population's territorial
distribution. The pace of urbanization has accelerated, with the
proportion of people living in cities reaching 71%. This has
negatively affected environmental conditions in urban areas, and
has been accompanied by equally significant effects on the
occupation of rural areas. Consequently, the Governments of the
region have expressed their wish to design and implement policies
to orient internal migration, but they have had to face the fact
that, given the complexity of the causes of such migration, their
chances of influencing spatial distribution lie not so much in
direct action as in the influence of their economic and social
policies in general on the determinants of migration.
Similar observations can be made in the case
of international migration. For example, government concern over
the loss of qualified human resources can be channelled most
effectively through development policies that encourage people to
remain in their home country, rather than measures that seek to
regulate the flow of emigration directly.
Population policies
The foregoing considerations help to identify
the possible range of population policies. First of all, the
three traditional variables of population dynamics
–fertility, mortality and migration– deserve government
attention. This should be a double-edged concern: that the
evolution of demographic variables be compatible with the
development process in terms of production, social equity and
sustainability, and that this evolution reflect the free exercise
of individual rights. A broad area of complementarity exists
between these two dimensions.
Second, since demographic phenomena are
interrelated with socio-economic dynamics as a whole, population
policies should be implemented in the context of development
policy in general, and of social policy in particular. This
approach more clearly distinguishes the specific fields in which
population policy can have a relatively direct impact –such
as actions relating to fertility– from those in which
population policy works mainly through areas conventionally
identified with other spheres of government action. Examples of
the latter include morbidity- and mortality-related policy in the
form of general actions in the health sector, and migration
policy which, apart from government regulatory action, is
influenced by the broad spectrum of policies to promote
development. The more direct nature of fertility control policies
should not, however, be interpreted as a sign of disconnectedness
from the entire package of social policies.
The implementation of a population policy
conceived in these terms therefore precludes an autonomous,
compart- mentalized vision on the part of the policy itself or of
the public institutions in charge of it. Population goals should
neither be set independently of economic and social development
policies nor be pursued by entities unrelated to government
development agencies. Institutional arrangements should clearly
identify those responsible for designing the policy and for
following up and evaluating its results (for example, an
inter-ministerial committee assisted by an ad hoc technical
team);. Above all, the capacity of bodies such as ministries of
education and health, as well as non-governmental organizations
(NGOs); and community organizations, should be tapped through
invitations to participate in policy implementation with concrete
programmes of action. The region has had varied experience in
this area –including both successes and failures– on
which Governments undoubtedly will want to capitalize.
The field of external migration also affords
ample opportunity for international cooperation. Indeed, the
bilateral conventions and other policy-coordinating mechanisms in
force today are in need of improvements and amplifications which
–without prejudice to the sovereign right of every State to
regulate movements of foreigners in its territory– will help
clarify the rights of the migrating population and minimize
conflicts concerning this highly sensitive and fluctuating
phenomenon.
International technical cooperation, both
bilateral and multilateral, has played an important role in the
region since the initiation of national population activities,
particularly with regard to family planning, education on
population issues and data collection. The rapidly changing
constellation of demographic variables and the heterogeneity of
their behaviour among and within countries mean that, in the
foreseeable future, population problems will be no less important
and complex than in the past, and that the role of international
cooperation will therefore remain crucial. The fact that some
overall indicators, such as the region's average growth rate,
have changed dramatically could erroneously suggest that the
region deserves less attention and cooperation than it has been
receiving.
In particular, neither international
cooperation nor national efforts should be limited to the most
direct and immediate actions in the field of population, but
should meet the need to analyse, as fully as possible and on an
ongoing basis, the region's shifting demographic reality. The
latter constitutes a rich laboratory in which much can be learned
about the complex linkages between population, development and
the environment in a context of democratic progress for the
benefit of the countries that make up the region and, to some
extent, of countries in other parts of the developing world.
Contents of chapters
The following chapters discuss in greater
detail the facts, conclusions and policy considerations summed up
in this introduction. Chapter I outlines the evolution of
population dynamics at the regional and country levels, using a
typology based on the descriptive scheme of the so-called
demographic transition. Next, it focuses separately on changes in
fertility and mortality, dwelling on topics of particular
importance such as adolescent fertility, infant mortality and
certain pending challenges, such as the persistence of maternal
mortality, and then examines the implications of all of the above
for the population's growth and age structure.
Chapter II describes the proposal on changing
production patterns with social equity in a context of
environmental sustainability and democratic development. In this
context, it identifies the three main areas of linkage between
changing production patterns and population: human resources,
with emphasis on quality; social equity; and environmental
sustainability.
Chapters III and IV discuss two topics which
–as noted earlier– constitute basic concerns of the
international community and have priority on the United Nations
agenda, namely, women and environmental sustainability. In both
cases, emphasis is placed on the study of these topics'
relationship to the population variable, and, especially on the
fact that their linkage to population is difficult to separate
from their connection with socio-economic dynamics as a whole.
The chapter on women and population takes up
and further examines a number of topics, such as the exercise of
reproductive rights and the situation of displaced and refugee
women. The chapter on environmental sustainability expands upon
previous studies on the environment and natural resources by
viewing these topics in conjunction with that of the population's
territorial occupation or spatial distribution. This approach
reveals that, besides taking overall measurements of demographic
pressure on natural resources, it is vitally important to analyse
local ecosystems, which vary greatly in this regard and therefore
lend themselves more easily to the definition and application of
specific policy measures.
Chapter V deals with national population
policy, briefly examining the foundations thereof and
–without offering a detailed historical account–
analysing various experiences in this field. Its main conclusion
is that concerns should not focus exclusively on the
implementation of specific institutional schemes, but should
explore how to take advantage of pre-existing government bodies
that could collaborate efficiently in policy design and
implementation. After considering some potential policy
guidelines, including target-setting, the chapter goes on to
discuss programmes for more direct action on population
variables, i.e., family planning programmes, in greater detail.
Lastly, chapter VI considers separately the
topics which, while amply deserving of national concern, are
inherently suited to international cooperation. International
migration is the first of these. After discussing migration both
within and outside the region in some detail, the chapter
analyses its main implications for the development process and
presents some reflections on possibilities for action offered by
national policies and international cooperation. Lastly, it
describes some aspects of the World Population Plan of Action,
which was adopted and updated, respectively, at the two world
conferences held thus far (Bucharest, 1974 and Mexico City,
1984);.
Notes
(1); This variation in
population dynamics is also reflected in other important
variables, such as the ratio of natural resources to population
size.
(2); Demographic
inequity is seen not only in terms of fertility but also in
respect of migration and in the mortality variable, especially
infant mortality.

Foreword
At the start of the new decade,the debate on economic policy centres on
the consequence of the reforms implemented in Latin America and the Caribbean
in the last two decades.Trade and financial liberalization and the privatization
of production activities have radically altered the r...