Year-to-date there have been 234 tornado reports across America. These are preliminary and since we tend to shave off about 30 to 40 percent of these reports as being reported multiple times, we can assume that there have really been less than 200 tornadoes this year. Certainly not what we're used to seeing if you look at the years 2011 and 2012. As a matter of fact the busiest day this year actually occurred at the end of January.

Is this year normal, or were the last two years so abnormal that we got used to seeing unbelievable events unfold?

Of course looking at 2011, from January to April was just crazy. A total of 912 tornado reports was astonishing and by no means deemed "normal." The year started off fairly quiet. January,February and March of 2011 were either just at or below normal in tornado reports and then, "Bam!"

April happened. Tornadoes everywhere.

Then there was 2012, which under the influence of a La Nina pattern saw every month above the 3-year running tornado average.

So, the last two years have been quite active.

But check out 2010. The year actually started off very quiet from January to April with 203 tornado reports. But it didn't stay quiet. Come May, there were more than 300 tornado reports, 50 more than the three-year average.

So, what does this say about 2013? Just because it starts quiet doesn't mean it will remain quiet. What is happening right now is helping for the short term, but long term there is no correlation.

So, will May finally begin to resemble what it's suppose to resemble anytime soon?

After this week's sloppy severe weather, the model above, known as the GFS, shows high pressure returning to The Plains. Which would indicate warm and quiet weather days. Of course, if you have read this blog before, then you will know that I mentioned we would likely see a stretch of above-normal temperature days come the middle of the month.

However, what happens after the middle of the month will need to be watched closely. While there will be a high pressure ridge overhead, it may begin to move out as our next storm system moves in along the west coast as noted in the image above.

Severe weather chances will likely change by then and perhaps our first severe weather outbreak may be setting up come the third week in May. Or maybe not. We'll have to take the wait-and-see approach.

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