Börsipäev 4. märts

The joys we expect are not so bright, nor the troubles so dark as we fancy they will be.

-- Charles Reade

The market is not so patiently awaiting the monthly jobs report. Expectations are for payrolls to grow by 225,000 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.2%. However, there are whispers that the payroll number may actually be in excess of 300,000.

We have to be very careful about being overly joyful about a strong number and overly troubled by a weak one. The tendency of the market recently has been to sell strong jobs numbers and buy poor ones. It is very easy to forget that the raw numbers themselves aren't nearly as important as expectations and the market mood.

Also keep in mind that a strong jobs number is not necessarily an economic positive. When employment growth is strong, inflationary pressures increase and the possibility of more aggressive rate hikes by the FOMC has to be considered. The stock market likes economic growth, but it hates inflation and higher interest rates.

The market tends to act best when economic growth is of the Goldilocks variety -- not too hot and not too cold. The market's best chance of moving up today will probably come on a jobs report that is in line. I would be inclined to sell aggressively into a very strong report and a big move, and would consider buying on a weak number and a gap down.

All the major indices are tightly coiled and in positioned for a strong move. The S&P 500 and Dow have been on the verge of a breakout for a while now and today could easily be the day that determines if that happens or not.

The Nasdaq continues to be the problem child. The semiconductors and technology in general have been struggling and can't seem to take the leadership role that is so badly needed. Retailers have tried to pick up the slack, but we need technology to act better if we are going to have a sustainable rally.

And that brings us to the biggest problem facing the market recently: oil. The indices have been trading in lockstep with the price swings in crude oil in recent days. With oil prices hitting all-time highs, market participants are keenly focused on what is happening there. The best thing that could happen for this market is a pullback in oil that triggers a rotation out of energy stocks and into other groups, particularly technology. If oil sees any significant pressure at all, the rotational pressures should kick in strongly.

Early market action is flat as we await the jobs number, and oil is down a few pennies. We have an unusually high number of factors impacting the market today. Jobs, oil and technical patterns are ready to come together to deliver some exciting action. Be ready to act, we should see some fast moves today.