Sunday, June 15, 2008

McCain and Latinos: Ol’ Two-Face Can’t Shed The ‘R’ Brand

John McCain would love probably love dearly to shed the nativist dead
weight that is the rest of the Republican Party. But he can’t — most of
all because it’s not in his nature. Mr. "Straight Talk" can’t help but
pander to whoever his audience is.

So when he’s surrounded by nativists, he talks like them, getting all
tough on "border security." When he’s in a more thoughtful setting, he
gets all fuzzy about "comprehensive reform."

It’s already gotten him into trouble with the nativist wing — which
ranges from the Malkinite and Tancredoan wingnuts to the Ron Paulian
wingnuts, who actually hate each other but are united in their loathing
of the GOP nominee, referring to him as "Juan" McCain. He keeps making
gestures in their direction, but so far it is not working very well.

And it’s selling even worse with Latinos, who already suspect McCain
of opportunism simply because he’s a Republican in the mold of Bush
(lots of nice talk but an ugly reality). When he openly panders to his party’s wingnuts, as he’s been doing, the suspicions turn to a big fat thumbs down.

According to the most recent NBC poll,
Barack Obama leads McCain among Hispanic voters by a 62-28 percentage
margin. That’s much worse than even the 44 percent of the Latino vote
that Bush reportedly managed to get in 2004 (at least according to some
exit polls, though other polls showed him faring much worse).

McCain believes he can do better, but it sounds like wishful thinking. A sympathetic piece at Real Clear Politics (which gives a generous accounting of his flip-flopping on immigration) quotes an optimistic campaign spokesman:

Nationally, McCain will have work to do
in convincing Latinos to join him. "Do [Hispanics] know John McCain? The
answer is, well, not yet," said Lionel Sosa, a Republican ad maker who
has already cut advertisements for McCain in advance of the general
election.

Actually, they may be getting to know him all too well. McCain, after
all, plays the same pander-to-the-audience schtick on other issues:
torture, wiretapping, the Iraq war, on and on.

Still, his biggest problem with Latinos, as the WaPo notes,
is the Republican brand in general, especially on immigration, where
the debate has turned into an outright Latino-bashing frenzy:

McCain’s problem will be the tarnished
reputation of his party. Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s
Voice, points out that nothing may affect him among Latinos as much as
the "R" beside his name. While McCain will remain sufficiently moderate
on immigration, despite some politically expedient tips of the hat to
certain segments of the conservative base, the GOP’s association with
hard-line measures is a galvanizing force among Latino voters. While
only half of them are immigrants, most have come to see the anti-illegal
immigrant crusade of the last three years as an anti-Latino movement.

… But it may turn out that Obama’s best
allies for getting out the Latino vote will be Bush’s Homeland Security
Department and media personalities that live to stoke anti-immigrant
sentiment. While the immigration issue has faded from the presidential
campaign, the increase in raids throughout the country — the number of
undocumented immigrants arrested at workplaces rose more than sevenfold
between 2002 and 2006 — and the continued pounding of the issue in
primetime by Lou Dobbs, Bill O’Reilly and Glenn Beck will keep it very
much alive for Latino voters. And that will only benefit the Democrats.

There was some concern, however, heading out of the primaries that
Obama might have trouble attracting Latino votes, since a substantial
majority of Hispanics preferred Hillary Clinton in a number of large
states. But that concern hasn’t panned out, and it has a lot to do with
what the two candidates are offering.

Upon closer scrutiny of both candidate
positions, there are differences. For example, McCain opposes the Dream
Act that benefits undocumented students and Obama supports it; McCain
opposes giving driving licenses to illegal immigrants; Obama supports
it.

Nevertheless, both would vote in favor of building a wall on the southern border.
"But the most important differences are less obvious and have to do
with what type of reform they’ll propose and try to pass," said Cecilia
Munoz, vice president of the National Council of La Raza (NCLR).

According to Munoz, McCain’s talk on immigration changes "depending on his audience."

"We had George Bush’s heart behind immigration reform and that wasn’t
enough. I think John McCain’s heart is behind the legislation but we
don’t know if he wants or would be able to really push through the type
of reform he wants," she added.

"Not only is he trying to placate Latino voters, but the
anti-immigrant side of his party as well, and this will constrain him in
an important way" said Munoz.

… But, according to Munoz, the fact that Obama promises to advance
immigration reform in the beginning of his possible administration not
only is a message to the immigrant community but also to Congress.

"It’s the type of difference with [John McCain] that is less obvious
but equally important: the quality of the compromise," she concluded.

There’s also the quality of the candidate. One panders, the
other leads. If Obama continues on that path, and makes that
distinction clear to voters, he has a chance now to secure the Latino
vote by a substantial margin. But it isn’t an opportunity that can wait.

Sara Robinson has worked as an editor or columnist for several national magazines, on beats as varied as sports, travel, and the Olympics; and has contributed to over 80 computer games for EA, Lucasfilm, Disney, and many other companies. A native of California's High Sierra, she spent 20 years in Silicon Valley before moving to Vancouver, BC in 2004. She currently is pursuing an MS in Futures Studies at the University of Houston. You can reach her at srobinson@enginesofmischief.com.