Service chiefs deserve clarity on the defence budget

Luke Coffey, a former adviser at the Ministry of Defence, says David
Cameron must honour his pledges or Britain will suffer.

'David Cameron’s pledge to increase defence spending after 2015 was not an agreed Government policy: it was only a personal view'Photo: AP

10:00PM GMT 01 Feb 2013

When David Cameron announced the outcome of the Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) in October 2010 he told the House of Commons that it was his “own strong view” that the MoD “will require year-on-year real-terms growth in the defence budget in the years beyond 2015” to meet the objectives of the SDSR.

However, what many fail to realise is that David Cameron’s pledge to increase defence spending after 2015 was not an agreed Government policy: it was only a personal view. Yes, he is Prime Minister— but coalition politics had a role to play as well. At the time the Liberal Democrats hated the idea and were dead against it—even calling for deeper defence cuts. The Treasury was skeptical, then in denial, but was eventually forced to live with it.

So instead of clear Government policy the Service Chiefs got ambiguous language in the form of a personal opinion that was reluctantly agreed at the last minute. Nevertheless, David Cameron’s comments have since formed the basis for all defence planning inside the MoD through to 2020. Every future equipment programme, every readiness exercise, every standing task such as defending the Falklands or maintaining the nuclear deterrent, are all predicated on that one sentence delivered by the Prime Minister at the Dispatch Box.

Defence Secretary Philip Hammond, while trying to clear up the confusion coming from No 10, told reporters that what the Prime Minister agreed was a 1 percent increase in only the equipment programme and not the whole defence budget. However, back in October 2010 the spirit of David Cameron’s pledge was a real-terms increase in the defence budget as a whole. The agreement for a real-terms increase in the equipment programme, which was brokered by then Defence Secretary Liam Fox, was finally agreed in July 2011—nine months after and separate from David Cameron’s pledge. Furthermore, since the equipment portion of the defence budget only accounts for just under half of all defence spending, it is unlikely that a 1 per cent real terms increase would be enough to translate into a real terms increase for the defence budget as a whole.

Those on the U.S. side of the Atlantic are watching this debate closely. In the eyes of the U.S. the UK is viewed differently from other NATO allies in Europe. The UK is just one of four of the 28 NATO members that spend the required 2 percent of gross domestic product on defence. (After 2015 even this will be thrown into doubt.) The UK has proven itself to be America's number one global ally and military partner. Make no mistake; a decline in the capabilities of the British Armed Forces will have an impact on Britain’s Special Relationship with the U.S. As Winston Churchill said in his 1946 Iron Curtin speech the Anglo-American Special Relationship is first and foremost about military cooperation. If the British cannot bring modern, well-funded and robust military capabilities to the battlefield then, in the eyes of the Pentagon, the UK will be no different than any other European country: a good partner to have but really nothing special.

In 2010 the Service Chiefs and Defence Ministers agreed, in good faith, to sweeping defence cuts on the understanding that there would be increased funding for the Armed Forces after 2015. The success or failure of the SDSR depends on a real-terms increase in the defence budget as a whole—and not just the equipment portion of it. Without an increase in defense spending the SDSR is not worth the paper it was written on. Not only will it be Britain’s security and standing in the world that will suffer but also each soldier, sailor, airmen and marine. Now is not the time for confusion, it is a time for clarity, commitment and leadership.

Luke Coffey is the Margaret Thatcher Fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a former Special Adviser in the MoD.