Audibles – Week 6

As a fantasy owner you should prepare for the bye weeks with good quality matchups. If you thought something would come along that you could plug and play, It may not be that simple. Fantasy teams suffered a great loss when Julio Jonesbroke the screw in his foot from his 2011 surgery. That is unfortunate for all your Atlanta Falcons because Julio was the great equalizer. Teams game planned to take him away or simply contain him. While the attention was looking his direction, other players were able to get loose.

If you roster Matt Ryan, Roddy White, or Tony Gonzalez, You should realize that it isn’t going to be the same big plays that score, but rather sustained drives. This actually helps in PPR leagues, but expect there to be some carnage before Steven Jacksonreturns. Is it possible that the Falcons will turn more to the ground game to control the clock? They won’t be able to answer the bell quite as easily without a big play threat. Let’s examine the different scenarios:

Roddy White‘s health has not been good and he hasn’t even looked the part. I know that he is capable, but will be forced to play at less than 100%, regardless. He may be more of a possession receiver than he is a threat to score. Tony Gonzalezis the main red zone target. It’s not that I don’t think that Roddy Whitewon’t get back to WR1/WR2, it just won’t be right away. He hasn’t been worth a start this year and suddenly you are going to plug him in and expect production as a volume play.

I do in fact think that he will get many more looks but he hasn’t done much with them at 9.21 yards per catch. He will draw Darrelle Revis in Week 7, and Patrick Petersonin Week 8. I’m not sold on the first two weeks after the bye. It could be the land of disappointment.

Scenario #2 It takes a few weeks to get healthy enough to be relevant again.

Here’s why I think that is absolutely what will happen:

The other receivers in Harry Douglas, speedy Drew Davis, and Brian Robiskiewill give Matt Ryanenough targets as to not single in on White until he can handle the workload. Harry Douglasis certainly ready to take the next step from what I have seen. He has averaged 13.69 yards on 16 catches. Douglas has averaged five targets a game but only has converted 16-of-27. That number is going to need to go up. Drew Davisis in line to get a look if that conversion number doesn’t increase and could step onto the radar.

Brian Robiskieis someone who has talent but there is something stopping him from playing the part. I’m not betting that he is more than a situational player. I like Tony Gonzalezmuch more in the red zone than I can explain to you. Steven Jacksonwill be back before long and balance should be restored. White should find it difficult until he recovers from his hamstring injury. This could be a few weeks minimum.

Scenario #3 The downward spiral of a good team.

Here’s why it’s possible:

At 1-4, The Falcons simply can’t keep pace with the Saints in the NFC south. We have all heard that this will be the final season for Tony Gonzalez. Julio Joneswas on pace for 132 grabs and 1,856 yards. Do I have to tell you that no one can cover Julio? He in fact is irreplaceable. There are about three receivers that you might mention in a conversation like this. Julio Jonesis about as good as it gets. The size and leaping ability to go up and get the football over anyone and the fact is that there isn’t one receiver on the Falcons or a group of them that can replace that. Matt Ryanwasn’t exactly finding Julio in the end zone often. A mere two touchdown grabs in five games and was on pace for around seven on the season.

He was the centerpiece and made others around him better. Take him from the equation and you may have to dig deep to figure out who really will benefit from Jones not being in the lineup.The Falcons have the bye week to figure out exactly what the new game plan will be. I don’t think they will lay down by any means. The new plan will probably focus more on how to get a handle on time of possession. This may turn Matt Ryaninto more of a game manager and less of a gunslinger which could hurt his fantasy value.

It’s possible that any of these scenarios happens. It takes some insight into how the organization will respond. I will guess that Harry Douglasis the main beneficiary but it leads to more Tony GonzalezTDs in the paint.

You can’t forget about Roddy White, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Steven Jackson(when he returns.) Drew Davisseems like a longshot at this point and is mostly a role player, but he is exciting to watch. I think Brian Robiskielooks like the deepest sleeper in the history of fantasy football. Let’s not forget about TE2 Levine Toilolowho has two TDs in three contests on five catches. He is a big target in the red zone.

Remember when Steve Perry left Journey (the band)? They thought he was one of the components that made them great. After many years of Karaoke replacement singers, the band learned that he was the one that made them great. You can still see them perform at the county fair and at small venues, but there isn’t any of the magic left. It’s a few guys playing the old songs and listening to folks sing along in their ridiculous shower voices. The same thing can be said of replacement players when you have someone with the skills of Julio Jones.

Julio Jonesis the band. Don’t get sucked into thinking that anyone can post numbers like he can.

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