Hey Angle - a little behind here - could you catch me up on the NCAAF Correlated Play Angle?

Divide spead by total. 35% or higher is a play. Some play 40% and Shiman plays 44% and up.

Make two 2-teamers on the same game.

Bet 1 Fave/OverBet 2 Dog/Under

Many books won't take these with this high percentage. They don't like them because there is a high "correlation" between the spread and total. Some will let you bet both if you change the amount by $1 on one of the parlays.

Example last week Alabama-21 total 41. If you think Alabama covers they surely go over, that is the "correlation". They did, so the fave/over parlay won and the dog/under lost. You will always lose 1 of them. Don't expect fave/over to work every time. Many times the dog/under will hit. Alabama won 42-10.

If Alabama shut them out 40-0, you lose both parlays.

Some times a strong defensive team like Alabama will blow out the other team and still go under. Sometimes a dog will bark too much and push the total over. You never know, some weeks the fave/over hits more and other times the dog/under will bail you out! Always play it both ways. That is the system.

You will always lose at least half of these bets no matter what. The key is winning enough to make money. With 2 teamer paying +2.6, you get a 1.6 unit profit any time you win one of the parlays.

You have to win 30% of the parlays to make money. If you have 10 and only win 3, that is 3 X 2.6 = 7.8 units won and 7 units lost on the 7 losers. You will have some bad weeks and later in the season these get harder to hit, so be fore-warned.

Remember the best you can do is win 50% of them. With 10 plays that would be 5 X 2.6 = 13 units won and then 5 units lost for maximum of 8 units profit on 10 plays.

Just be sure to ALWAYS bet BOTH ways. I sometimes bet either a side or total I like within the same games but if you stick to the system and don't bet a bunch of other games you will be farther ahead in the long run. It is a slow grind but it still gives you action even if there are only 3-5 games that fit the system each week.

Divide spead by total. 35% or higher is a play. Some play 40% and Shiman plays 44% and up.

Make two 2-teamers on the same game.

Bet 1 Fave/OverBet 2 Dog/Under

Many books won't take these with this high percentage. They don't like them because there is a high "correlation" between the spread and total. Some will let you bet both if you change the amount by $1 on one of the parlays.

Example last week Alabama-21 total 41. If you think Alabama covers they surely go over, that is the "correlation". They did, so the fave/over parlay won and the dog/under lost. You will always lose 1 of them. Don't expect fave/over to work every time. Many times the dog/under will hit. Alabama won 42-10.

If Alabama shut them out 40-0, you lose both parlays.

Some times a strong defensive team like Alabama will blow out the other team and still go under. Sometimes a dog will bark too much and push the total over. You never know, some weeks the fave/over hits more and other times the dog/under will bail you out! Always play it both ways. That is the system.

You will always lose at least half of these bets no matter what. The key is winning enough to make money. With 2 teamer paying +2.6, you get a 1.6 unit profit any time you win one of the parlays.

You have to win 30% of the parlays to make money. If you have 10 and only win 3, that is 3 X 2.6 = 7.8 units won and 7 units lost on the 7 losers. You will have some bad weeks and later in the season these get harder to hit, so be fore-warned.

Remember the best you can do is win 50% of them. With 10 plays that would be 5 X 2.6 = 13 units won and then 5 units lost for maximum of 8 units profit on 10 plays.

Just be sure to ALWAYS bet BOTH ways. I sometimes bet either a side or total I like within the same games but if you stick to the system and don't bet a bunch of other games you will be farther ahead in the long run. It is a slow grind but it still gives you action even if there are only 3-5 games that fit the system each week.

Anyone like team to score first Tigers +115??? (Got NYY to win so would make that team to score first loses for me)

I am chasing first to score loses for GM 4 DET/NY (game 2 of my chase) and I don't like to play those together.

However, (last 3 years) 5 times a team has scored first the first three games in series. All were away, away and home. Only 1x did they score first the 4th game at home (STL v MIL last year, STL scored 1st all 6 games). But, STL lost that game so the trend would be 1-0 that the team scored first each game in the first 4 and lost the 4th game of a series, which would be good for your DET first to score and NYY win bets.

For the 2012 season (using the tricky SDQL stuff) -

Home team scores first and wins = 32.3%

Home team scores first and loses = 12.4%

Away team scores first and wins = 20.9%

Away team scores first and loses = 34.4%

In short, first to score loses has a 46.8% chance of hitting and a line around +200 would tell me that the odds makers think only a 33.3% chance.

Your bets (first to score DET and NY win) have 12.4% chance of hitting, using season actuals. That is why I stay away from doubling those two up.

2012 Detroit at home:

DET score first and win = 39.3%

DET score first and lose = 11.9%

Away score first and win = 23.8%

Away score first and lose = 25.0%

Summary first to score and lose around 36.9% (closer to a +200 line). But DET score first and lose about 11.9%.

2012 NYY Away:

NYY score first and win = 36.9%

NYY score first and lose = 20.2%

home score first and win = 16.7%

home score first and lose = 26.2%

Summary first to score and lose around 46.2% (great % for a +200 line). But DET score first and lose about 26.2%.

Use the numbers anyway you want.

My only play (locked) and last chase still going is first to score loses +215. May add an OU or some other props but will not play a ML or RL.

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