UP polls: Sixth phase to decide fate of Mayawati today

The sixth phase of UP elections covering 68 constituencies in Jat-land and Muslim-dominated areas will be decisive for the SP and the BSP besides testing the new-found Congress-RLD camaraderie and the BJP’s ability to polarise votes in this casteist and communally sensitive belt.

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LUCKNOW: The sixth phase of UP elections covering 68 constituencies in Jat-land and Muslim-dominated areas will be decisive for the SP and the BSP besides testing the new-found Congress-RLD camaraderie and the BJP's ability to polarise votes in this casteist and communally sensitive belt. This round, to some extent, will decide if the SP or the BSP emerges the single largest party in the assembly.

The SP has nothing to lose here as it won only three seats in 2007. But the stakes are high for the BSP which swept the region in 2007 but lost some ground in 2009 and a further slide would mean that the party would end up either as number two or be neck and neck with the SP. After the first five rounds, the popular perception is that the SP seems to be ahead. But despite anti-incumbency, the BSP still has its dalit voter base (about 22% of the population) more or less intact.

The Congress, which performed poorly in 2007 and 2009, has hopes from the region which is prosperous owing to its rich agriculture and proximity to Delhi. The party has tied up with the RLD which has influence over the jats. The RLD president, Ajit Singh, can still count on the loyalty of his community.

Ajit Singh, known for shifting loyalties, has been in almost every government in the state (barring the present BSP government) and at the centre in the past 20 years. Despite his hold over the jats, the RLD does not have a wide enough base to win elections on its own. So, it contested in 2007 with the SP, tied up with the BJP in 2009 and this time join hands the Congress. Though a small party, the RLD will assume importance in a hung assembly.

The key issues include land acquisition during Mayawati's rule, lack of development, absence of a high court bench, poor electricity supply and the falling ground water table. Jats are only 6-7% of UP's total population, but they constitute 17% of the populace in the west UP and can affect outcomes in 55 assembly seats. In Mathura, Jats are 40% of the population and around 30% in Baghpat.

The Congress-RLD front is banking on the Muslim-Jat combination but the alliance seems to be in trouble with Digvijaya Singh snubbing the RLD for projecting Ajit Singh's son Jayant as a CM candidate. Though RLD has clarified that some misguided party workers gave Jayant that projection, sources said it was RLD's tactical move to mobilise jat voters.