A technical one-point lead is not normally good news for an incumbent, but it is a better showing for Bennet than we have seen in most other recent polls. SurveyUSA and CNN/Time (PDF) both found Buck leading by five.

All polls basically show the two nominees having locked up the base, but where they differ is on the independent vote. CNN/Time found Buck winning that group 50 percent to 36 percent, while PPP had Bennet winning independents 48-38.

It will be interesting to see what effect the gubernatorial race has on the election. Normally, gubernatorial race ares the big turnout drivers in midterm elections, but the situation in Colorado right now is very unusual. The Republican nominee, Dan Maes, is deeply flawed and polling in the teens. Most of the right-leaning vote is going to former US Representative Tom Tancredo, running on the American Constitution Party line. It is possible that having a widely despised gubernatorial nominee could make it harder for Republicans to turnout some of their less engaged voters, and, as a result, help other Democrats in the state.