000
FXUS64 KMAF 020523
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1122 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 06z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours continues to be low
cigs/vis affecting terminals overnight and Monday morning. Currently
looking at IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but CNM this evening,
however CNM should drop to LIFR a bit later. Poor flight conditions
will continue through Monday morning and possibly into early
afternoon. Could see vis 1/2-1/4SM at times, particularly at
HOB/MAF/FST but for now will only carry 1-2SM attm. Initially
thought temperatures would hold above freezing overnight but HOB and
MAF are currently sitting at 32. Will hold off on including mention
of FZFG for now, but will continue to monitor trends and amend if
temps decrease further. Otherwise, conditions may finally improve at
most sites Monday afternoon.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have persisted throughout the day. This is not
surprising considering the difficulties associated with scouring out
shallow cold air masses. As a general rule, it is usually necessary
to see surface pressure falls north of the area along with a wind
shift to more a southeast to south component before we see
decreasing cloud cover and warming temperatures. The computer
models usually try to move the cold air out earlier than it should,
resulting in the forecast being too warm.
Only in the last couple hours have we seen surface pressure falls
north of the area. This is way too late in the day to be of much
help for the central and eastern portions of the CWA. However, we
can see on visible satellite were southeast New Mexico and the Upper
Trans Pecos are seeing decreasing clouds. These areas should see a
late afternoon warmup. Other areas of southwest Texas have enjoyed
plenty of sunshine today with Marfa being lucky enough to warm into
the lower 70s.
This evening and overnight, we should see surface high pressure
build back into areas east of the mountains. We would expect to
see redevelopment of fog over a large area along an east of the
mountains. Locations over the north and northeast portions of the
CWA will remain below freezing overnight, so freezing fog is
included for those areas. Also, the northeast half of the Texas
Permian Basin could see some light rain or freezing rain overnight
with little if any accumulation expected. We have opted to issue an
SPS instead of going with another Winter Weather Advisory as impacts
are expected to be less than in previous days.
Monday appears to be another day similar to today. It will take
some time to scour out the cold air, perhaps less time than today.
So while we might be a little warmer than today, we have opted to
go on the low end of temperature guidance.
As the surface ridge finally moves east of the area on Tuesday, it
is replaced in this progressive pattern with surface low pressure
over the Central Plains. This should lead to a rather marked warmup
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s across
the area with downslope southwest to west surface winds forecast
across the area. We really don`t get rid of our mid level moisture
ahead of the next upper level system located just west of Baja at
that time. Thus, we still have a shot at precipitation on Tuesday,
especially during the evening and overnight early Wednesday. Most
unstable CAPE values Tuesday evening over southwest Texas are on the
order of 500 J/KG. While not an overwhelming value, we can`t rule
out the possibility of a thunderstorm during that time period.
Another cold front is expected to make its way into the area on
Wednesday morning. The NAM is noticeable slower in moving this
front into area as opposed to the GFS. However, regardless of
model, we eventually seem poised for another winter weather event
on Wednesday. While not yet indicated in the forecast, it is
likely that temperatures will fall throughout the day on
Wednesday with snow possible across a good portion of the area. As
the models come closer into alignment the next couple days, it
will become more clear as to what Wednesday`s weather has to
offer.
While a gradual warmup is expected Thursday into next weekend, below
normal temperatures are still expected. It appears that winter
still has somewhat of a hold on the area.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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