Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.

Never discount the narcotic effect of self-delusion. Happened with liberals going into the 2010 election. Now these yo-yos.

The sad thing is that apparently Romney may have started fantasizing about what it would be like to fly around in Air Force One and so on. His fall from fantasy to reality is particularly far and painful...and self-inflicted. McCain never seemed deluded about the electoral realities...but then McCain had actual experience of hardship and loss.

Never discount the narcotic effect of self-delusion. Happened with liberals going into the 2010 election. Now these yo-yos.

The sad thing is that apparently Romney may have started fantasizing about what it would be like to fly around in Air Force One and so on. His fall from fantasy to reality is particularly far and painful...and self-inflicted. McCain never seemed deluded about the electoral realities...but then McCain had actual experience of hardship and loss.

I've no doubt that Romney felt he had a chance. I don't suspect he thought it was a GREAT chance. I think the same is likely with many of the talking heads and analysts. The confounded were more likely to be people like some of my dear co-workers (thanks for the wagers, you guys!)

Relatively Obscure:Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.

It's almost as though scientific forecasts can be a reliable tool people can use to help predict trends and probable outcome. Funny.

The vindication of Nate Silver and the refutation of his critics should send a powerful message to the GOP.You are not entitled to your own facts. Your feelings on a subject are a reflection of reality - not reality itself.You should not tear someone down and ignore their analysis just because you don't like their results.

This should cause the GOP to reconsider other areas where they've summarily dismissed numbers that they don't like.

It should, but it won't. Because that's what rational people would do, and the party is no longer made of rational actors.

It's now a party of people pleading for someone to lie to them, lead by a group of men that are all too happy to do so as long as it lets them hold on to some amount of power for another day.

Never discount the narcotic effect of self-delusion. Happened with liberals going into the 2010 election. Now these yo-yos.

The sad thing is that apparently Romney may have started fantasizing about what it would be like to fly around in Air Force One and so on. His fall from fantasy to reality is particularly far and painful...and self-inflicted. McCain never seemed deluded about the electoral realities...but then McCain had actual experience of hardship and loss.

I've no doubt that Romney felt he had a chance. I don't suspect he thought it was a GREAT chance. I think the same is likely with many of the talking heads and analysts. The confounded were more likely to be people like some of my dear co-workers (thanks for the wagers, you guys!)

It sounds like they were convinced they would win because the polls projecting an Obama win assumed turnout would be the same as 2008, and they intuitively beloved that because of the poor eceonomey Democratic turnout would be down.

The right just spent a solid month attacking the fundamental mathematical rules that govern virtually every aspect of our being in this universe because those rules happened to disagree with the approved party line during the home stretch in this election.

I cannot even begin to imagine what insanity is about to ensue. We are talking about people who are attempting to undo the very fabric of our universe because the reality it weaves doesn't agree with them. Conservatives are not mentally stable or emotionally healthy people. This is only going to get uglier.

Karl Rove should be fired along with Charles Krauthammer, George Will, Dick Morris, Joe Scarborough, and the entire Fox and Friends morning crew.

They aren't peddling information they are peddling the psychology of winning that conservatives need as motivation. I bet if you did a study you would find conservatives are more apt to vote if they know they are going to win than if they believe they are going to possibly lose. It jives with the psychology of fighting for policy that helps the very rich at the expense of the poor and middle class.

The worst part of Jonah Goldberg is his style, which is relentlessly cowardly. He never takes a stand on ANYTHING. His use of weasel words and ass coverings compose nearly 50% of his prose, which reads like a high school homework assignment. Often times you'll read a Jonah Goldberg article where there's not a single logical thought or point in it.

GhostFish:The vindication of Nate Silver and the refutation of his critics should send a powerful message to the GOP.You are not entitled to your own facts. Your feelings on a subject are a reflection of reality - not reality itself.You should not tear someone down and ignore their analysis just because you don't like their results.

I really hope you're right...but i'm not sure the Republicans will be able to fix their internal problems.

Weaver95:GhostFish: The vindication of Nate Silver and the refutation of his critics should send a powerful message to the GOP.You are not entitled to your own facts. Your feelings on a subject are a reflection of reality - not reality itself.You should not tear someone down and ignore their analysis just because you don't like their results.

I really hope you're right...but i'm not sure the Republicans will be able to fix their internal problems.

Like I said last night, I'm making a fortune selling long knives on eBay.

Relatively Obscure:Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.

You shouldn't have any problems with that- after all, he's so thin and effeminate.

Weaver95:GhostFish: The vindication of Nate Silver and the refutation of his critics should send a powerful message to the GOP.You are not entitled to your own facts. Your feelings on a subject are a reflection of reality - not reality itself.You should not tear someone down and ignore their analysis just because you don't like their results.

I really hope you're right...but i'm not sure the Republicans will be able to fix their internal problems.

This. Confirmation bias exists to such a degree because it really is possible for people to fool even themselves to such a degree.

Of course: nobody cheats death forever. And the conservatives have done such a good job of replacing the old white vote with their sensible opinions...

Hilarity_N_Sues:Relatively Obscure: Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.

You shouldn't have any problems with that- after all, he's so thin and effeminate.

Mentat:Weaver95: GhostFish: The vindication of Nate Silver and the refutation of his critics should send a powerful message to the GOP.You are not entitled to your own facts. Your feelings on a subject are a reflection of reality - not reality itself.You should not tear someone down and ignore their analysis just because you don't like their results.

I really hope you're right...but i'm not sure the Republicans will be able to fix their internal problems.

Like I said last night, I'm making a fortune selling long knives on eBay.

You have no idea. My personal hope is that the extreme right wing gets custody rights to the name "Republican" and then goes sits in the corner of political irreverence while the sane conservatives move into the "Reality Party" with the Democrats and we have a spectrum of views collaborating instead of two polar opposities arguing.

Relatively Obscure:Hilarity_N_Sues: Relatively Obscure: Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.

You shouldn't have any problems with that- after all, he's so thin and effeminate.

To be fair, Dean Chambers is the very model of masculinity.

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How can be so certain he is the 'very' model if you don't have what color and brand mobility chair scoots around in?

Relatively Obscure:Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.

No one saw this coming? For school, my 10-year-old son researched the races. (We live in PA). He correctly called Barak Obama the winner in PA and on the electoral college. In fact, he picked 48 states correctly. (Had Romney in Colorado and Florida.) He correctly picked PA's U.S. Senate race and our local state Senatorial race.