Oilers’ backup Nikolai Khabibulin is an unrestricted free agent this summer. Does it make sense for the team to keep him around rather than shopping elsewhere?

Four years ago, the Oilers signed Nikolai Khabibulin as a free agent. Over his previous four years in Chicago, Khabibulin had a mix of performance and health problems, but he redeemed himself somewhat with a tremendous contract year. History seems to have repeated itself. Over four seasons in Edmonton, Khabibulin has had a mix of performance and health problems, but once again has come through at the end of his contract with a 0.923 save percentage over 12 games. Just as it didn’t in 2009, that late surge doesn’t make Khabibulin a good fit for the team.

Injury

Khabibulin was well-established as one of the most injury prone starting goalies in the NHL when the Oilers signed him. From 2006-06 to 2008-09, Khabibulin missed 66 games (an average of 17 per season) to a variety of maladies, with most of them being back and lower body injuries. That total ranked him fourth among NHL starters in time missed to injury; ahead of him were Pascal Leclaire (since retired), Rick DiPietro (the Islanders only wish he was retired) and Kari Lehtonen (he’s been remarkably healthy since).

In the four years since, injuries have been a frequent problem for Khabibulin. Via TSN, here’s the list of games missed to injury:

2009-10: Missed 60 games (back injury)

2010-11: Missed six games (groin injury)

2010-11: Missed four games (eye injury)

2011-12: Missed five games (groin injury)

2012-13: Missed five games (hip injury)

2012-13: Missed eight games (groin injury)

Total: 88 games lost to injury, average of 22 per season

For just under one in three games the Oilers have played since signing Khabibulin, the veteran goaltender has been on injured reserve. If not for the lockout, that total would have been inflated, as Khabibulin was on injured reserve to start the 2013 season.

Khabibulin is now 40 years old. Injury was a concern when the Oilers signed an oft-injured 36-year old; it’s more of a concern four years later.

Performance

Khabibulin was coming off a difficult four-year stint in Chicago when the Oilers signed him. He had won the Stanley cup with Tampa Bay just before the lockout, and the Blackhawks paid big money for him to solve their goaltending problems. Instead, he was terrible in 2005-06, moderately better in 2006-07, decent in 2007-08 and quite good in 2008-09. Overall, he posted a 0.904 save percentage over that span – a total that ranked 27th among goalies with a minimum of 100 starts in that period.

Khabibulin’s performance in Edmonton has been similar. He was pretty good in an 18-game first season before injury knocked him out of the lineup, but was then terrible the following year. A hot start in 2011-12 combined with a brutal finish propelled him to average-ish overall numbers, and then in a short stint this season Khabibulin was excellent. Overall, he posted a 0.903 save percentage over four years in Edmonton – almost the same total as he managed in Chicago, except that NHL goaltending has improved. Among goalies with a minimum of 100 games played over those four years, Khabibulin’s 0.903 save percentage ranks 39th of 42 players.

Bottom Line

Khabibulin is a terrible fit for the Oilers. Ideally, the Oilers need a backup they can count on to play (Khabibulin can’t be, due to injury), play well (Khabibulin has not consistently done so) and ideally someone who can continue to push starter Devan Dubnyk or take over for a stretch if he falters or gets hurt (something Khabibulin simply isn’t capable of doing at this stage of his career).

When it comes to addressing the number two goaltending slot in Edmonton, Nikolai Khabibulin shouldn’t be in the conversation.

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

I don't believe the Oilers need someone to push Dubnyk. The Oilganization gave him the job this year, they'll give him another year at the helm to see how he fairs. Given his core of d-men and cheating/slow forwards, Dubnyk wasn't that bad this year.

Good call for change. Though I believe Dubnyk can handle the load of a number one, and do it consistently enough to get us to the playoffs, having a solid back up that could do the same, as well as push Dubnyk to the next level would be ideal. I hate to say it, but the way Dubnyk plays, Luongo would seem like an ideal mentor.

If Van uses their amnesty buy out on him, and he's willing to play in another town that wants it's younger goalie to become the number one, he would be a good fit. I see them splitting the season if he was to come here.

But likely he would want to still go back to Florida and be a number one somewhere for the remainder of his career.

Are there any other goalies around the league that might be acquired this year. I know Smith is the big off season prize. What about Ryan Murray from Buffalo. As a 1B option he could be very good, and may even get back to his levels of greatness.

However with Fluery playing the way he has, if they don't win this series, I can see the Pens go after Murray.

I don't believe the Oilers need someone to push Dubnyk. The Oilganization gave him the job this year, they'll give him another year at the helm to see how he fairs. Given his core of d-men and cheating/slow forwards, Dubnyk wasn't that bad this year.

It's never a bad idea to have competition in house. never.

Also... injury. Look at Minnesota right now. In an instant you are reliant on a guy that you are going to want to be competitive. See also, Price.

Also... performance. Look at STL this year. They went from 1st in team save % last year to the bottom 3rd of the league (worse for the first 2/3rds of the season). Even established goalies can tank... hard and suddenly. See also, Quick.

No way he comes back. Edmonton really needs to improve next season and if Dubnyk gets injured and the Oilers run with Khabi/AHL starter for a month two it could toast the whole season. Gotta be a guy you trust will be healthy and consistent.

Also... injury. Look at Minnesota right now. In an instant you are reliant on a guy that you are going to want to be competitive. See also, Price.

Also... performance. Look at STL this year. They went from 1st in team save % last year to the bottom 3rd of the league (worse for the first 2/3rds of the season). Even established goalies can tank... hard and suddenly. See also, Quick.

I can't agree with never.

Injury is a concern and a gamble every team takes on every player. Anything can happen to anyone at any one time, including injuries and performance slumps- it is all part of the game.

I don't understand why you brought up those teams and examples, or what they have to do with Dubnyk and Khabi. I'm sure if I tried and looked hard enough, I could find a few examples of something/someone else to support my point of view.

What is it Dubnyk's play that makes you think Loungo would be a good mentor to him?

If a if was a spliff-we'd be all #@$%ed up.!..
Why would the Oilers give Dubnyk the #1 job and the bring someone in to share the load 50/50. None of them would then be the #1 goalie. What has Dubnyk done to lose his job as the #1? What has he shown to be concerned with?

I don't really care if Loungo wants to go back to Florida or where he wants to retire, it has nothing to do with the OIlers, Dubnyk or Khabi.

If MacT signs him, then obviously we have hired the wrong GM and it should be instant grounds for dismissal for both MacT and Lowe.

Seriously... Khabibulin's getting up there in age, he's maddening inconsistent, he's injured more than average when compared to other goalies and he's no threat to Dubnyk to push him for playing time. Cut ties and look for someone... anyone... under the age of 33 and who has played more than 50 professional games during their lifetime and can post a respectable GAA.

Khabibulin is another Andy Sutton in waiting. If we sign him, he'll be on injured reserve for most of next season when he jumps for joy that he actually got an extension and pulled his back/ACL/MCL/neck/vestigial tail/whatever in the process. Quit hurting yourselves Oilers and let someone else hunt for ol' Red October.

Injury is a concern and a gamble every team takes on every player. Anything can happen to anyone at any one time, including injuries and performance slumps- it is all part of the game.

I don't understand why you brought up those teams and examples, or what they have to do with Dubnyk and Khabi. I'm sure if I tried and looked hard enough, I could find a few examples of something/someone else to support my point of view.

You are suggesting you don't need to push a positional player.

More than this, you are suggesting you don't need to push arguably the most important positional player on any hockey team.

I gave you 3 reasons.

1. competition is healthy. having someone push for your position is good IMO.

2. Injury. If Dubnyk goes down and you don't have a competitive player in the wings, because you don't think you need someone pushing for TOI... well... you're effed.

3. Performance. If Dubnyk suddenly tanks and his SV% goes haywire (hardly a rare occurrence for NHL goalies, even "elite" ones) and you don't have a competitive player in the wings.... etc.

for these reasons you need a reliable, competitive backup. Nik is not reliable because his performance is far from consistent, his age and his propensity to injury.

Get rid of Khaby, he is done, but Dubby has not proved anything. Seriousely all the weak goals he lets in silly. You need someone as good as dubby to push him, and then go with the best guy. The BIG EASY is to EASY

What is it Dubnyk's play that makes you think Loungo would be a good mentor to him?

If a if was a spliff-we'd be all #@$%ed up.!..
Why would the Oilers give Dubnyk the #1 job and the bring someone in to share the load 50/50. None of them would then be the #1 goalie. What has Dubnyk done to lose his job as the #1? What has he shown to be concerned with?

I don't really care if Loungo wants to go back to Florida or where he wants to retire, it has nothing to do with the OIlers, Dubnyk or Khabi.

Both Dubnyk and Luongo's strengths lie in being big goalies that take away angles well, and can smartly read plays. Neither of them is overly athletic so reacting is not their strong suite. Hence, why their shoot out numbers are not at the top end of the league. Though I think Dubnyk occasionally shows some athletic ability, it's not his play style. And that is fine. Where he falters as the number one is in his consistency. If he is going to be a goalie that takes away angles, then he has to be that all the time, and that is where Luongo could help him improve his game.

Not only does he make Dubnyk need to do better to be our number one, but he can actually help make him better, while providing reliable goal tending when he's in net.

Dubnyk is our number one only because our number two is Habby. The off season should be spent upgrading our team at every position, otherwise what is the point. Bringing Luongo does that two fold. He is a huge upgrade over Habby (who currently holds a larger contract than Dubnyk by the way), and he can help both push and mentor Dubnyk to become the type of goal tender we all know he can be.

Don't get me wrong, I het the Canucks, I am glad they are out of the playoffs, but if you think having Luongo doesn't make our team instantly better, you do not watch hockey.

More than this, you are suggesting you don't need to push arguably the most important positional player on any hockey team.

I gave you 3 reasons.

1. competition is healthy. having someone push for your position is good IMO.

2. Injury. If Dubnyk goes down and you don't have a competitive player in the wings, because you don't think you need someone pushing for TOI... well... you're effed.

3. Performance. If Dubnyk suddenly tanks and his SV% goes haywire (hardly a rare occurrence for NHL goalies, even "elite" ones) and you don't have a competitive player in the wings.... etc.

for these reasons you need a reliable, competitive backup. Nik is not reliable because his performance is far from consistent, his age and his propensity to injury.

I didn't suggest any of the things you are suggesting I suggested.

1. Sure, competition is healthy. But, it is not always necesarry, especially in the case of the Oilers and Dubnyk in the next year. I believe that with a better D-core and better bottom 6, Dubnyk will be a better goalie next year. Looking at his #s, he could be a top 10 goaltender.

2&3 are concern for every player and every team. What would happen if Dubnyk goes down, then, his jobjacker comes in and gets injuried too: you suggesting the Oilers need to go get a solid 3rd/AHL goalie that will be able to go #1 when the times calls for it?

I'm not saying the OIlers don't need a back-up, and someone a lot better than Khabi, all I'm saying is they don't need a back-up(trade for one) that will be in the position to steal Dubnyk's job. I don't see nothing to available in the FA pool, and no team is going to trade you anything that will challenge Dubnyk without a price. Oilers could use their assets to improve in other areas of concern.

I like Khabby, but I think retirement from the net is in everyones best interest. (I feel the same way about #94). With that being said, I think using both of these vets in some sort of coaching capacity would be a benefit to the roster players. Their voices of experience could be superior to what they can leave on the ice during a game. Age has caught up unfortunately.

Both Dubnyk and Luongo's strengths lie in being big goalies that take away angles well, and can smartly read plays. Neither of them is overly athletic so reacting is not their strong suite. Hence, why their shoot out numbers are not at the top end of the league. Though I think Dubnyk occasionally shows some athletic ability, it's not his play style. And that is fine. Where he falters as the number one is in his consistency. If he is going to be a goalie that takes away angles, then he has to be that all the time, and that is where Luongo could help him improve his game.

Not only does he make Dubnyk need to do better to be our number one, but he can actually help make him better, while providing reliable goal tending when he's in net.

Dubnyk is our number one only because our number two is Habby. The off season should be spent upgrading our team at every position, otherwise what is the point. Bringing Luongo does that two fold. He is a huge upgrade over Habby (who currently holds a larger contract than Dubnyk by the way), and he can help both push and mentor Dubnyk to become the type of goal tender we all know he can be.

Don't get me wrong, I het the Canucks, I am glad they are out of the playoffs, but if you think having Luongo doesn't make our team instantly better, you do not watch hockey.

Both of their strong assets have nothing to do with a skill and atheltic ability, more so to do with bestowment of height, and the help of padding on it. If they were not so tall: how good of goalies would they be? Do you believe they would be #1 on any team?

If Dubnyk's weakness(as you are suggesting) is taking away angles-then it would only take a good coach and drills to help him get that going, and time of course. I don't see what Loungo has to offer him.

Are you suggesting that Dubnyk is not a #1 goalie? Only by default?

I didn't say Loungo wouldn't make the team better, and I do watch hockey.

1. Sure, competition is healthy. But, it is not always necesarry, especially in the case of the Oilers and Dubnyk in the next year. I believe that with a better D-core and better bottom 6, Dubnyk will be a better goalie next year. Looking at his #s, he could be a top 10 goaltender.

2&3 are concern for every player and every team. What would happen if Dubnyk goes down, then, his jobjacker comes in and gets injuried too: you suggesting the Oilers need to go get a solid 3rd/AHL goalie that will be able to go #1 when the times calls for it?

I'm not saying the OIlers don't need a back-up, and someone a lot better than Khabi, all I'm saying is they don't need a back-up(trade for one) that will be in the position to steal Dubnyk's job. I don't see nothing to available in the FA pool, and no team is going to trade you anything that will challenge Dubnyk without a price. Oilers could use their assets to improve in other areas of concern.

Sure you did.

You repeated it in this post. You don't think the Oilers need someone to "challenge Dubnyk." You don't think competition is "necessary"

I think it is. I think it is necessary at all positions, especially at one as important as goalie.

FWIW I also think Dubnyk will be better next year and think he was great this year. big fan. Doesn't mean I don't challenge him and insure against either a collapse in performance or injury.

The other examples (2 and 3) were elaborations using examples. that is all.

Simple point: yes you need to have a quality back up; no Nik is not one; yes a good 3rd goalie is smart management

By the way... I define a quality back-up capable of pushing DD as either a cheap journeyman who's had success in the past and isn't ancient (from the Labarbera family) and/or a Euro that has gone undervalued by NHL scouts (from the Fasth family) and/or a prospect on the up swing (from the Bishop family).

Hmmm, you might have misread that a little. I'm saying he is a goalie that takes away angles, that is his strength and style of play, which is similar to Luongo. Also similar to Luongo, his weakness is his athletic ability. He's not an acrobatic goalie.

Obviously their height gives them an advantage, I think I make that quite clear. And no, if they were smaller playing the same way, they would not be number ones.

I don't think Dubnyk, has shown he is a legit number one, simply by the fact he has never had a season where he played over 50 games. He hasn't had that yet, and like Schnidier this year, stepping into a role with more games, might not be the easiest transition. Having said that I think he played great this year, but it wasn't a full year. Currently, Dubnyk is definitely our number one by default, but also because management thinks he can be that guy, and so do I. But if say Bishop was here, I don't think his number one status would be so solidified. Not so much a knock on Dubnyk as insight into how bad I think Habby is.

Basically, because Luongo is a more consistent, and veteran goalie that plays a very similar game and style to Dubnyk, I think having him here will both help Dubnyk become more consistent and eliminate his one weak goal a game, as well as provide us with a huge upgrade on our back up situation, and an insurance policy in case of injury.

Yep - the Canucks made a formidable run for it and came a game short. Now they have to tear it down.

They have a few options - they could move the oft-injured Kesler and sign a guy like Weiss as their 2nd line C, while moving out guys like Raymond, Burrows, etc who have value, as well as Schneider ...

Or they could trade from their position of strength, which is on D.

I would wager they make a deal with the Flyers (who desperately need D).

I expect you may see AV end up as the new coach in Dallas while Vancouver will hire Dave Tippet.

Look for some significant personnel moves on the ice too.

Being speculated that Edler will be dangled for a first round pick.

It's gong to be a very interesting couple of months.

Edler to Edmonton?

I would make that deal assuming he still has some time left on his contract. Losing out on either a big centre who won't be ready for at least another year, or a gritty defender who might never be ready depending on development, is worth it if acquiring a top two defender, which I believe Edler is.

Do you think there's a deal to be made for swapping picks, and if so who?

Yep - the Canucks made a formidable run for it and came a game short. Now they have to tear it down.

They have a few options - they could move the oft-injured Kesler and sign a guy like Weiss as their 2nd line C, while moving out guys like Raymond, Burrows, etc who have value, as well as Schneider ...

Or they could trade from their position of strength, which is on D.

I would wager they make a deal with the Flyers (who desperately need D).

Every trade they make is from a position of weakness. They HAVE to move some guys out. They have only 17 players signed and are $100K over the cap already (next year).

Yep - the Canucks made a formidable run for it and came a game short. Now they have to tear it down.

They have a few options - they could move the oft-injured Kesler and sign a guy like Weiss as their 2nd line C, while moving out guys like Raymond, Burrows, etc who have value, as well as Schneider ...

Or they could trade from their position of strength, which is on D.

I would wager they make a deal with the Flyers (who desperately need D).

I think you may have nailed it.

LeBrun talking this morning about Edler and Schneider to Philly for Philly's first round pick and Brayden Schenn or Jakub Voracek.

Makes a lot of sense for both teams.

Weiss is injured even more than Kesler so I don't think that makes sense.

Actually, here’s the question in inverse: All things being equal, why would Khabby even consider re-signing with the Oilers?

By “all things being equal,” what I mean is this: If, on July 1, he had a similar offer on the table from a team in a non-fishbowl market like, say, Florida or Carolina or Dallas (to throw some random names out there), is there any conceivable reason why he should even consider re-upping in Edmonton?

Khabby has generally been a professional during his time here (save for that unfortunate impaired driving incident) ... but, as noted, he hasn’t played consistently enough to really enjoy the support of the fans. The Oilers are in that “tween” stage where they’re still young enough to be considered as “having potential to be great” but far enough away from “being great” that Khabby will likely be retired if/when it happens.

Khabby’s 40 years old, with a wife and kids. He has his Stanley Cup ring. He's made a nice career for himself - he was practically a folk hero in Winnipeg and that was before he even won a Cup.

So, unless he’s got this drive to sign with a contender next year, I don’t see why, if the opportunity is available (a big “if”), he doesn’t just bolt for the sunnier climes of a non-traditional hockey market. Earn some big money, retire at 42 and move on with life.

Patently untrue? Ok. Care to expand on this? Or is it so because you say it is?

Also, they need to resign Schroeder and Tanev so I'm not so sure how they will achieve this "cap flexibility" by buying out two players that will save them only $5M. Resigning the two players I mentioned will spend at least $3.5M of the money they saved via the buyouts.

Patently untrue? Ok. Care to expand on this? Or is it so because you say it is?

Also, they need to resign Schroeder and Tanev so I'm not so sure how they will achieve this "cap flexibility" by buying out two players that will save them only $5M. Resigning the two players I mentioned will spend at least $3.5M of the money they saved via the buyouts.

Is it true because YOU say it is or is there some objective reality.

I would think your opinion may be coloured by your problems with math.

Ballard makes $4.2M and Booth makes $4.25M.

That's a total of $8.45M and moving Luongo ($5.3M) would give then a total of $13.75M.

I think they could sign Tanev and Schroeder pretty easily with that kind of room, don't you?

I would think your opinion may be coloured by your problems with math.

Ballard makes $4.2M and Booth makes $4.25M.

That's a total of $8.45M and moving Luongo ($5.3M) would give then a total of $13.75M.

I think they could sign Tanev and Schroeder pretty easily with that kind of room, don't you?

Ballards buyout cap hit would be $1.4 until the end of the 2017 season. Booths buyout cap hit will be roughly $1.3M, $1.0, $1.5M, $1.5. They do not save $8.45 but more like $6.04M-$5.5M. Tanev and Schroeder may eat up at least $3.5M of this.

How are you so positive they will magically be able to move Lou without retaining any salary?

Ballards buyout cap hit would be $1.4 until the end of the 2017 season. Booths buyout cap hit will be roughly $1.3M, $1.0, $1.5M, $1.5. They do not save $8.45 but more like $6.04M-$5.5M. Tanev and Schroeder may eat up at least $3.5M of this.

How are you so positive they will magically be able to move Lou without retaining any salary?

You really need to brush up on the facts before posting.

The Canucks have TWO compliance buyout available to them which means there are ZERO cap implications going forward.

As for Luongo,I think it's more likely that they move Schneider and his $4M cap hit.

In any event, they'll have lots of cap flexibility no mater how long or hard you try and insist they won't.

So Khabibulin spent from 2005 to 2008 in Chicago during which time the Hawks drafted Toews, Kane and Kyle Beach.

He signs in Edmonton and they promptly draft Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov.

If we throw out all those fancy stats about performance and goals-against, then ignore a complete and utter lack of discernible depth on the roster, as well as dance swiftly around causation and connection, we can come to only one conclusion: Khabibulin is draft-day gold.