MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN AND E-CNTRL WY / WRN NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 070006Z - 070100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF MAINLY A MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THREAT AND A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST MAY
CONTINUE/DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS E-CNTRL CO THEN ARCING NWD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND EXTENDING INTO CNTRL WY. ELY FLOW TO THE N OF THE FRONT
HAS ADVECTED MID-UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/ ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND SWLY 30 KT H5
FLOW AT KCYS 88D-VWP WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION TO THE STORM NEAR KCYS...A FEW OTHER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE AGITATED CU FIELD OVER SERN WY. ONE OR
TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT
AND AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND
GUST BEFORE THE ACTIVITY WANES BY MID-EVENING.
..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/07/2014
ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 41180499 43420630 43290454 41750324 41030401 41180499