“Typically, the backlog drops in the spring and summer months as residents and businesses make their income tax payments, and then numbers grow in the fall and winter.”

‘Treading water’

At the start of April, the bill backlog in Topinka’s office stood at $8.5 billion. That number included bills on hand and the office’s best estimate of bills held in state agencies.

In early April, Hahn said, vendors were waiting at least four months for payments from the state, although some bills took longer than that to be paid.

A strong tax season this year allowed the office to “aggressively pay down bills” in April and May. By the end of May, the backlog was down to $5.8 billion and vendors were waiting a minimum of two months to be paid, half what they were waiting at the start of April.

That was, however, the high-water mark in the state’s efforts to pay bills on time. By the end of June, also the end of the state’s fiscal year, the backlog was sitting at $6.1 billion.

By Oct. 1, the backlog was up to $7.5 billion, including bills that hadn’t been turned in for payment. And as of late last week, the total was at $8.8 billion.

Hahn said the office believes the total will hit $9 billion by the end of December, exactly where Topinka predicted it would be last summer. It is the second year the backlog will sit at $9 billion at the end of the calendar year.

“Although revenues have been up, we’re still in about the same place as far as bill backlog,” Hahn said. “Essentially the state is treading water.”

No sales tax bump

Things aren’t likely to turn around in the near future. Even though the holiday shopping season is about to go into high gear, history shows that it does not provide a spike in state tax revenue.

“The sales tax is not bumped as much as people might think,” said Jim Muschinske, revenue manager for the Legislature’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. “There is a little bit of a bump, but you have to remember, the holiday shopping season probably is a lot more spread out now than maybe it was 15 or 20 years ago.

“I don’t think you get that big rush like you did before.”

COGFA has revised its revenue estimates for this budget year and now believes the state will collect $369 million more than originally anticipated. House Speaker Michael Madigan, among others, believes any unanticipated revenue like that should be applied to old bills, rather than increased state spending.

“Every bit helps. Certainly for the vendors that are waiting, that can make a difference,” Hahn said. “But relative to the overall backlog, it is a drop in the bucket.”