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Monsoon to cast a drenching Spell on East India

The drenching rains in western India could take a short break as the Deep Depression over the region weakens and has started to move northeastwards. In the last 24 hours, Vadgam in Gujarat has recorded 495 mm rainfall and Abu Road in Rajasthan 408 mm rainfall and this wet spell would abate gradually. Meanwhile, the Deep Depression over North Bay is still intense which could lead to extremely heavy falls in areas of Gangetic West Bengal along with Odisha and Jharkhand. Fishermen of this region are warned not to venture out into seas as wind speeds of magnitude 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph will prevail along and off these coasts.Heavy rains likely along Konkan and Goa coast, with widespread rains forecasted in the next 2 days along the entire coast. In the south,TN would see isolated storms for a few more days.

Chennai will see a partly cloudy sky with a maximum close to 36-37 C and a chance of isolated rain/showers.

Coimbatore to remain cloudy with temperatures close to 31-32 C with occasional drizzles.

I am not understanding how all sub-divisions will get seasonal monsoonal (SWM/NEM) in 100% rainfall?? Global rainfall incidents are the act of “mother nature”, which works completely on a systematic “nature’s balancing act” depending on so many complex dynamics with lot of variable factors. For example most importantly mother nature trying to balance its sins via ENSO & other indexes via Thermohaline circulation mechanism.

In Chennai itself it won’t rain in all similar pattern in a season, then how we are expecting “nationwide sub-divisional” cumulative index to be same with 100%??

OK. Let the natural act be aside. We will discuss only one example (can discuss so many like this), which is in human hands. Lets take one class room filled with all intelligent students (with same IQ, no problem). Then can anyone try to make all students to get 100% marks in all subjects in regular exams (or in IIT-JEE/any entrance exam, etc).

My answer for the above question is “simply highly impossible for all student to get 100% marks in all subjects (due to various factors)”.

Conclusions:
(1) Hope we all can understand the difficulty for our mother nature in giving 100% rainfall for all subdivisions in a single seasonal year (thank god as we didn’t expected all sub-divisional rainfall equally on each and everyday towards 100% rate).

(2) IMD might have developed some formulae/process to calculate cumulative sub-divisional rainfall pattern based on law of averages. Even skymet (IMD) giving similar view about seasonal cumulative sub-divisional rainfall pattern (read the following article). Then why we have to blame IMD when even skymet supporting this uneven rainfall pattern??

(3) Even human controlled biological in vitro or in vivo experiments will be made “the average of 3 experiments”. One has not to forget that “mother nature” is a biological system unlike a “computational-digital system 🙂

(4) Still who doesn’t convinced with my argument then please try to calculate the average of all sub-divisional rainfall pattern in between “a Lanina & Elnino episodes (or at least 3 years average may also good)”.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is among the world’s top 10 driest countries that receives an annual rainfall of merely 78mm. This is 15 times less than what UK gets on average in a year. In order to tackle this issue, UAE has decided to squeeze out every last drop of rain from the clouds by making use of cloud seeding. It is the name given to the technique of launching salt missiles into the clouds from planes. It is executed for increasing the condensation and thus triggering a downpour.

Never seen such a huge flooding crowd in bus,train in Rameshwaram… Flooding people around Ramnad-Rameshwaram 50 km stretch …. Showed my last respect to Sir… You are in the heart of everyone forever, RIP sir…. PC-Dinakaran

A slow-moving monsoon depression that has already unleashed lethal amounts of rain in South Asia formed into a tropical cyclone over the northern Bay of Bengal Wednesday. The cyclonic storm, now named Komen, threatens to further drench regions that are already reeling from flooding and mudslides, which have claimed at least 27 lives in two countries.

For about a week, heavy rainfall has been pounding southern parts of Bangladesh and parts of neighboring Myanmar thanks to a weak area of low pressure – designated a “depression” by meteorologists in that region – that formed over Bangladesh in association with the seasonal monsoon.

even for a region where average July rainfall exceeds 600 millimeters (2 feet), the rains have been exceptional. The coastal city of Chittagong reported 879 millimeters (34.61 inches) of rain in just a four-day period July 24 through 27.

With several rivers already out of their banks, the additional rain will merely aggravate ongoing flooding.

Worse, as the cyclone drifts back north, onshore winds will expand north for the west-facing shores of southeast Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department is warning of storm surge 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in its portion of that region, leading to saltwater flooding of low-elevation areas, and further preventing bloated rivers from emptying into the sea.

Stay with The Weather Channel and weather.com as we continue to follow this dangerous situation in South and Southeast Asia.

Much of southeastern Bangladesh has seen repeated heavy rainfall on daily basis over the past week. The results have been deadly. Five people died in a landslide in Cox’s Bazar Monday according to the Bangladesh-based Daily Star. Four others were pulled from the mud alive. Two other people drowned in flooding elsewhere in the town of 52,000 residents, the report said. Cox’s Bazar has reported more than 1,000 millimeters (40 inches) of rain since July 17, exceeding its already high monthly average rainfall of 924.6 millimeters (36.40 inches) according to Bangladesh Meteorological Department climate data.

While official rainfall totals are harder to come by in Myanmar, the effects have been as devastating or worse. At least 20 people are reported dead due to flooding in western and central parts of that country, and some 17,000 homes had been destroyed as of Monday from the days-long deluge, according to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency.

IMD you genius lmao. What a terrible organization. July 23rd’s PAC coming up today.. But atleast I can pinpoint my house’s location again. It is in the dark blue near the top right of “M” of “MO” which is surrounded by lighter blue

Really widespread and strong bands.. Rainrates of 20 mm/hr plus covering a massive area with thunderstorms of 100 mm/hr embedded in the stratiform band. I’ve never noticed such strong bands in tropical storms. Looks like it happens near Bangladesh and in Gujarat

Chennai is much wetter than Delhi.. Even 20 mm is overhyped in Mumbai.. Infact Mumbai isn’t that wet. It’s annual average is 230 cm at Scz and 215 cm at Colaba, but that is not far off from Kolkata which is at 180 cm. Many more parts of west coast get so much more rains than Mumbai

Mumbai is highly ill-planned (this is not to say Chennai isn’t) and the tremendous population explosion causes most of the fatalities. In Chennai, we have a leader at the helm who is now rumored to be in Japan for some unknown treatment.

Tears rolling from my eyes…..cant concentrate on anything…really sad. Cant watch the memorial. Never felt this in anyone else death outside the family. Hope they have kept office, i could have diverted this sad day.

Really a People’ President after People’s Chief Minister Kamaraj. When are we going to have People’s Prime Minister, People’s Councillor, People’s MLA, People’s MP everywhere in the country. If it happens we will be most developed Nation without any doubt.

On July 22, the IMD began monitoring a depression over the Bay of Bengal. Tracking west-northwest, the system intensified into a cyclonic storm later that day before making landfall in Andhra Pradesh, just north of Vishakhapatnam. Once onshore the storm accelerated towards the northwest and weakened. By July 24, the remnants of the cyclone were located over the state of Maharashtra. The system was last noted the following day over Gujarat and moving into Pakistan.

One thing that i like a lot about SWM is the ability of the sytems to last for days on land.. This makes sure that all of the rains are dumped in land whereas in NEM 60% of the rains will be dumped in BOB and once the sytem moves inland it fizzles out too easily..

Cyclone Yemyin June 2007:
A low pressure area associated with the monsoon trough was first detected by the Naval Research Laboratory in the Bay of Bengal on June 17. Over the next few days, it developed deep flaring convection near an exposed low-level circulation centre (LLCC) as it drifted in open sea.[3] Despite moderate to high vertical wind shear, the disturbance produced surface pressure falls of up to 2.7 mbar (hPa) in Port Blair, in the Andaman Islands, on June 19.[4]Convection persisted around the increasingly well-defined LLCC, and the disturbance continued to consolidate under favourable diffluence.[4][5]

Early on June 21, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the area a depression, 430 km (270 mi) east-southeast of Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh, India.[6] Several hours later, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA), with winds near 30 kn (55 km/h, 35 mph).[7] The depression moved quickly west-northwest towards the northern Andhra Pradesh coast.[6] A subtropical ridge to the north weakened the wind shear which had been paralysing the system, allowing for further intensification.[7] Later that day, the IMD upgraded the system to a deep depression.[8] As convection organised with increasing ocean heat content, the JTWC issued its first warning on Tropical Cyclone 03B.[9] The deep depression made landfall near Kakinda early on June 22 local time.[10] The JTWC issued its final advisory later, as the system began to weaken due to land interaction and wind shear.[11] The next day, the IMD downgraded it to a depression while it crossed the Deccan Plateau.[12] The final warning was issued on June 24, despite the storm having moved into the Arabian Sea.

The JTWC noted in its Significant Tropical Weather Outlook for the North Indian Ocean on June 24 that strong monsoonal low-level flow contributed to increased cyclonic vorticity, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. It warned that these factors could lead to a rapid regeneration of the cyclone.[13] Early on June 25, the JTWC issued the second TCFA for this system as its LLCC crossed the coast into the Arabian Sea.[14] Shortly after, both the IMD[15] and the JTWC[16] resumed advisories on the depression.

As it moved northwest just off the Pakistani coast, winds of about 26 kn (48 km/h, 30 mph) and a surface pressure of 990 mbar (hPa) were observed in Karachi near midday on June 25.[17] According to the PMD, the centre of the system reached within 90 km (55 mi) of Karachi.[18] With favourable conditions and deep convection, the system intensified into a deep depression that day.[19] After further organization, it made its second landfall at about 0300 UTC June 26 along the Makran coast, near Ormara and Pasni,Balochistan province, in southwestern Pakistan.[18][20][21] Upon reaching land, the cyclone began to weaken slowly,[22] and the JTWC issued its last advisory late on June 26.

Can you any other person like him again ?-Message by Balasubramaniam Sowbagya Wet grinders
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APJ was gifted with a wet grinder in a function at Erode. He refused it as a gift but wanted the grinder for his home. So he gave a cheque on our company name. We had it not deposited for 2 months as a possession of honour. However we got a call from his office to deposit the cheque or the grinder will be returned. Hats off to him. Nation’s pride!

Cyclone Komen will weaken in next 12 hours. Once the system starts to move in WNW direction, it will interact with the upper level ridge triggered by ACC will derail the system. Since the wind direction is not favourable, the system should move in WNW direction and weaken further into DD or D in next 24 hours.

Although the storm dissipated over the Bay of Bengal according to the IMD, one analysis suggested the storm re-intensified and made landfall on southeastern India between Chennai and Pondicherry on April 1 with winds potentially as high as 110 km/h (70 mph).[5] The storm did not receive advisories from the JTWC.[3] wiki

March cyclone are very rare. We may never see one in our lifetime sorry for the long post. 60 knots Cyclone close to Chennai and we cant remember it. IMD and JTWC messed up the coverage ? Can anyone post further info
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One thing is certain–there was disturbed weather in the Bay of Bengal during the closing days of March. Beyond that it isn’t at all certain just what went on. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) carried the system as a depression for three days and referred to it as a cyclonic storm (i.e., a tropical storm) on 30 Mar. JTWC never issued any warnings but two Formation Alerts were issued at 0430 UTC on both 29 and 30 Mar. There was some disagreement between the two centers regarding the exact location, but both generally agreed that the LLCC eventually turned north or north-northeastward. (It should be pointed out that for the NWP basin only, JTWC normally initiates tropical depression warnings when a system is analyzed to have a MSW (1-min avg) of 25 kts, but in the other basins warnings are not normally initiated until the system reaches 35 kts, or else has a very high potential to reach tropical storm intensity within the next 36-48 hours. This system would likely have been carried as a tropical depression in the NWP basin.)

But around mid-April Julian Heming of the UK Meteorological Service send around a visible satellite picture taken at 0300 UTC on 1 Apr which showed what looked like a quite well organized tropical storm with possibly an eye making landfall on the southeastern coast of India. Furthermore, this was exactly what the UK model had been predicting would happen. Roger Edson of the University of Guam performed an analysis of this system and concluded that it was a midget tropical cyclone of possibly near-hurricane force, and that it was not a new development but a redevelopment around the old LLCC from the system being mentioned by IMD and JTWC a few days earlier.

Roger’s track picks the system up the earliest (25/0000 UTC), locating a weak center very deep in the tropics (4.0N, 88.5E) about 550 nm east-southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka. JTWC first mentioned the area in their daily STWO at 1800 UTC on 26 Mar, indicating that
an area of convection was located about 240 nm west-northwest of Sumatra with a possible associated LLCC (as indicated by a recent QuikScat pass). IMD first mentioned a low-pressure area at 0600 UTC on the 27th, located about 625 nm east-northeast of Colombo. IMD’s
coordinates show the system never getting further west than 88.0E (at 29/0300 UTC) and then curving back to the north-northeast. JTWC issued the first of two Formation Alerts at 29/0430 UTC, placing the center near 10.6N, 87.8E. This is very near Roger’s 29/0000 UTC
position of 10.5N, 87.5E.

JTWC’s second Formation Alert at 30/0430 UTC placed the center near 14.1N, 89.5E. This location was about 90 nm to the south-southwest of MD’s position at 0300 UTC in which they referred to the system as a “cyclonic storm” (i.e., of gale force). However, this position is
nowhere near Roger’s 30/0000 UTC coordinates of 11.5N, 85.5E. In an e-mail to Julian Heming (which I received a copy of) Roger insists that there was only one circulation in the NIO during the period in question. He could follow it each day in the scatterometer data.
The convection eventually sheared off to the northeast, and apparently JTWC and IMD assumed the LLCC went with it, but according to Roger, the LLCC lagged behind around 10N, becoming elongated for awhile, then reorganizing into a more well-defined circulation.

A sequence of satellite imagery was provided by Julian beginning a t 31/0600 UTC (visible and infrared) and continuing with infrared imagery through 1200 UTC on 1 Apr. At 31/0600 UTC a small convective cloud mass was apparent off the southeastern Indian coast. At 31/0000 UTC
Roger’s track assigns a MSW of 45 kts to the system which was located about 225 nm east of Madras. The area of convection is seen subsequently to move westward toward the coast of India. Convection appeared to have weakened some at 1800 UTC but had flared back up by
2100 UTC. Roger believes the system reached a peak intensity of around 60 kts at 0000 UTC on 1 Apr when it was centered about 100 nm southeast of Madras. A visible image at 01/0300 UTC clearly shows the system making landfall between Madras and Pondichery. The image
shows a “dimple” which Julian thought might represent an eye. Roger feels that although the feature may have been an eye, he cannot substantiate it.

By 0600 UTC the center was inland and beginning to weaken, and by 1200 UTC most of the deep convection had dissipated near the center, although a swirl could still be discerned in the infrared imagery. NOTE: Roger Edson points out that his analysis of this system was not performed with the same degree of precision he normally used while still a forecaster at JTWC. It was based on available scatterometer data and TRMM, infrared, and visible satellite imagery, but these did not constitute a complete set. The coordinates are given to the nearest one-half degree of latitude and longitude. Also, Roger points out that a good bit of his analysis was based upon the newer QuikScat scatterometer which is not yet a “proven” sensor–i.e., it could have
a high or low bias. A special thanks to Roger and to Julian Heming for the information
and satellite imagery they provided for this interesting system.

OMG after 5 hours search got Satellite image of landfall of March 2000 landfall near Chennai as a severe Cyclone. Both IMD and JTWC missed the once in life time Cyclone. IMD shows the track towards Burma and forgot to track it.

Toward the end of March, an area ofconvection increased over the southern Bay of Bengal from an active equatorial trough. The system progressed northward, with a weak center between Sri Lanka and Sumatraby March 25. On March 27, a low pressure area developed, which the IMD designated as a depression by 12:00 UTC. The storm moved to the north-northwest and failed to strengthen at first. However, the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert(TCFA) on March 29, a signal of further organization. That day, the IMD upgraded the system to a cyclonic storm, and early on March 30 the storm attained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) while curving to the north-northeast. Increased wind shear from thewesterlies imparted rapid weakening, causing the convection to dwindle to the northeast. According to the IMD, the storm rapidly dissipated on March 30.

A climatological outlier, the storm was one of only five cyclonic storms at the time in the month of March in the Bay of Bengal. It dropped heavy rainfall in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, reaching 230 mm (9.1 in) on Hut Bay. Although the storm dissipated over the Bay of Bengal according to the IMD, one analysis suggested the storm re-intensified and made landfall on southeastern India between Chennai and Pondicherry on April 1 with winds potentially as high as 110 km/h (70 mph). The storm did not receive advisories from the JTWC.

This is wikipedia atleast remove the link numbers. I have IMD report too. See the IMD track it takes to Burma. Did u really read what i posted. Both IMD and JTWC missed the cyclone completly. NOAA has put this in their missing cyclone link.

An upper-level low persisted over the Andaman Sea on November 24. By the next day, a circulation center was present about 370 km (230 mi) west of Thailand, although convection was dislocated to the west due to wind shear. After the thunderstorms concentrated over the center early on November 26, the IMD classified the system as a depression. A ridge to the north steered the system generally westward. Outflow and convective organization gradually increased, and late on November 26 the JTWC classified it as Tropical Cyclone 03B. As the rainbands organized around the center, the winds increased; the IMD upgraded the system to a cyclonic storm on November 27, and to a severe and later a very severe cyclonic storm on November 28.

By November 28, a 20 km (12 mi) wide eyewas developing, prompting the JTWC to upgrade the storm to the equivalent of a minimal hurricane with winds of 120 km/h (75 mph). By comparison, the IMD estimated peak winds of 190 km/h (115 mph). Wind shear in the region prevented further strengthening, and the storm weakened slightly before making landfall on November 29 in eastern India near Cuddalore. A station there recorded a pressure of 983 mbar (29.0 inHg). The storm rapidly weakened over land, and degenerated into a remnant low on November 30. The remnants emerged into the eastern Arabian Sea on December 1, by which time most thunderstorms had dissipated over the deteriorating center. Two days later, the JTWC reissued advisories, based on an increase in outflow and convective organization. This was short-lived, as the thunderstorms soon dwindled, and the JTWC ceased issuing advisories on December 5. The remnants continued westward without development toward eastern Somalia.

Heavy rainfall, peaking at 450 mm (18 in) inTholudur, spread across Tamil Nadu. During the passage of the eye, residents reported a period of calm lasting about 45 minutes. Across Tamil Nadu, high winds knocked over 30,000 trees, and many coconuts, plantains, and rice paddy farms were damaged in nearby Puducherry. The winds also damaged about 41,000 houses, about 1,000 of which lost their roofs. Flooding washed away 14 brick buildings, while 300 others were inundated by the sea. Over 1,000 power lines were damaged. Overall damages were estimated at ₹700 million rupees ($15 million USD), and there were 12 deaths.

Crowd behaviour showed who had led them – What an image the little Island has given to the world!!
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The leader in A.P.J. Abdul Kalam showed them the way for the last one decade and a half. In the last two days, his followers showed the world what his leadership had given to them — discipline.