Forecasters say snow is possible Monday

All the weather forecasters want you to know is that there is a possibility there will be some snow -- maybe even a lot of it -- come Monday.

A low pressure-driven synoptic system trekking northward up the Atlantic coast is projected to reach Long Island and then back into eastern New York on Monday.

With colder air in place, forecasters believe there could be anywhere from a dusting to a foot of snow associated with the system.

"Every day that passes, the models are looking more and more in agreement there's going to be some snow in Western New York," said Bob Hamilton, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Hamilton said of the six forecast models the weather service uses, one is often "crazy." However, as this week as progressed, all of them have become closer to projecting the same thing: snow.

As of late Friday, Hamilton said it was still too early to accurately predict snowfall totals or locations. High snowfall totals are most likely in higher elevations, like the Chautauqua Ridge, but it's still too early to tell.

Wherever it falls, it could be a real problem, given our warm early spring and the fact that many plants and trees are already well in bloom.

"I would think there's a very high chance all of Western New York sees some snow," Hamilton said. "If someone gets six inches or more, it's going to get real ugly."

Hamilton said forecast models seem to indicate an almost identical pattern matching a storm that occurred in 2005.

That said, it is unusual, but not unheard of, for snow to fall in late April.

"This is an extremely anomalous situation, but not one you haven't seen before," Hamilton said. "There's something big every 10 to 15 years."

The weather service will likely issue a winter weather watch sometime today if the models continue to progress in the direction of measurable snow for Monday, Hamilton said. He said a winter weather warning would be issued Sunday, if warranted.

Stay tuned.

email: tpignataro@buffnews.com

T.J. Pignataro – T.J. Pignataro has been a staff reporter for The Buffalo News for more than 20 years and the environment and weather reporter since 2013. He holds a juris doctor degree from SUNY Buffalo Law School.