Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

The Mentalist

0.57

The Good Wife

0.58

Hostages

0.58

Blue Bloods (F)

0.59

Hawaii Five-0 (F)

0.61

We Are Men*

canceled

0.74

Elementary

0.77

CSI

0.82

Person Of Interest

0.88

Mom

0.90

Two And A Half Men

0.99

2 Broke Girls

1.03

Criminal Minds

1.10

NCIS: Los Angeles

1.11

The Crazy Ones

1.18

The Millers

1.29

How I Met Your Mother

final season

1.32

NCIS

1.33

The Big Bang Theory

2.21

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Along with The Millers and The Crazy Ones, Mom received a full season order last week from CBS.

That means it's likely to be renewed for another season, right? Not at all.

It means one or more of the following things:

CBS has to fill 18 hours a week with mostly new entertainment programming through May.

CBS has little faith in the other sitcoms waiting on the bench for 2013-14. No word when, or if, they will see the CBS schedule.

Mom might be renewed for 2013-14.

Which is it? Stay tuned.

Why isn't Elementary, with its ratings plunge, at least a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation? CBS hasn't canceled a second season drama since 2008 (Shark) and the cancellation bear's going to have to see a lot worse ratings for a period of time before guessing they'll do it this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

- certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

I don’t think anyone would assume that just because a show gets a full season pick up it’s going to be renewed. Anyone who thinks that must not watch too much TV.

Also, I like how a picture of the bear has been included in all Cancel indexes. It didn’t seem right for only one network at a time to have a picture of the Bear.

Dan

I think the fact that they cancelled We Are Men already and Mom has the Chuck Lorre factor makes Mom have a good shot at another season.

It really depends on how The Millers and Crazy Ones do also bc Millers retention could be better and Crazy Ones are doing ok.

The full season order never surprised me, I’d be shocked if it didn’t get that order. My guess is that FWBL will replace The Millers if it runs its episodes repeat free.

With HIMYM ending my guess is that Mike & Molly, Big Bang Theory, 2 Broke Girls and probably Two and a Half Men will return next season. This means assuming all 4 air in the fall that CBS will try to renew 2/6 sitcoms from this season for next fall so they can premiere 2. Which 2 will be renewed is anyone’s guess but since fall ratings really don’t matter and Mondays are expected to get better for CBS by January, Mom has as much a shot to return as Millers and Crazy Ones.

Jonay

What about there other drama pick up Reckless? Can we safely assume that is dead too??

Nasir

I hope Mom ratings rise because I think it’s hilarious… I think it has potential to be a hit for CBS.

CBS fan

Hostages is by far the worst show ever on TV. The plot is show predicatable, its almost like you know what will happen next and after the hour is over, you have wasted an hour.

Dan

@Jonay – CBS hasn’t renewed a midseason drama since The Unit in 2006 and Rules of Engagement in 2007, so I think a safe bet would be that Reckless is dead but the show will definitely premiere sometime. Maybe if The Good Wife or Mentalist finishes their season early, Reckless could air along with the remaining Unforgettable episodes.

So assuming that both FWBL and Bad Teacher flop, Mom has the same chance to return as The Millers and The Crazy Ones. It all depends on Spring.

Midnight

I’m a huge Elementary supporter, but just because CBS hasn’t cancelled a season 2 drama since Shark doesn’t mean they won’t if the ratings are really poor. That being said, I think the show will be renewed and that you are right to keep it at Likely Renewed until we see if the ratings recover or not (as they very well might for a procedural).

I also think the argument that midseason shows are doomed is a bad one. CBS has not had an unsuccessful Fall drama launch in quite some time. The lack of buzz is what will kill all the midseasons besides Intelligence, not their status as midseason replacements.

Jonay

@Dan i thought Unforgettable already had its season finale?

fringegot5seasons

I think Elementary will find itself back on the schedule next season. CBS seems fond of it and it’s not like their pilots will do better in whatever sad timeslot it gets shafted to.

Thinking the comedy move may have been a mistake – the entire lineup is just middling along, nowhere close to TBBT. I think the Thurs 9pm shift hasn’t been nearly as fruitful as they’d hoped especially considering Monday’s “meh” numbers.

gerry

mom was HILARIOUS last night, thanks to the wonderful octavia spencer!

mom isn’t going anywhere. chuck lorre pens the highest rated sitcom on the air. and the awful 2.5 men which is still doing well despite being on the air FOREVER. mom would have to fall into the depths for cbs not to renew it and that’s after time slot changes and the like. everyone at the net wants this show to succeed.

the good wife is going to be at the top of the critical darlings heap again after this season. that combined with it being a cbs production and the slight bump in the numbers (which will hopefully increase over the next few airings) have me leaning towards a renewal for one more season. mentalist is gone.

Wright

Elementary for renewal please. Poor Hostages. It’s really not that bad of a show.

@CBS fan– Agreed. Oh, I wonder if this will be the episode she escapes. No? There’s still ten more of these? We’ll just watch her be miserable for an hour? Ok. Boy that teen pregnancy plotline sure is FASCINATING!

Ryden Joe

Clear the slate……….Cancel the remaining 17 that aren’t in its final season or canceled already. in its place, sports 24/7. No one needs their brains rotted by scripted tv anymore.

Dan

@Jonay – Unforgetable only aired 7 of the 13 episodes produced for Season 2. While Season 3 will air Summer 2013, its unlikely that the 6 Season 2 eps will combine with those new eps.

Since Unforgettable aired its summer finale and still has 6 episodes left, its very likely CBS could plug them into the schedule and if Mentalist and Good Wife wrap early and run repeat free, by late March/early April sundays could look like this.

With Intelligence replacing Hostages and all other dramas/comedies remaining in their current slots all season, I cant see where else those new dramas will air.

Scandalicious

After this week (barring any adjustments) Mom just might squeak out a second season. I am glad to learnt eh CBS doesn’t usually cancel sophomore dramas. I think Elementary is a really good show. I want to see it stick around. It was just putting it up against Scandal that really wasn’t a good move. Along with Brooklyn Nine-Nine, The Crazy Ones is my favorite new comedy of the season! I hope it continues to see solid numbers. I am sure it would grow if they would switch it with The Millers and air it after a new episode of The Big Bang Theory!

dave

Unforgettable will air the remaining 6 episodes in Dec during a lot of shows holiday hiatus.The good wife is great this season I’m suprised ratings are so low but timeslot is crazy with football homeland and the walking dead and revenge all at 9pm

cc

I choose “they needed a slot to fill” as why Mom got picked up, and having the name Chuck Lorre attached to it didn’t hurt either.

Just cause it’s still on, doesn’t mean I’m watching it. Ditto 2BG.

Rebecca

Mom is very enjoyable…it makes me laugh the way TAAHM used to make me laugh (many, many years ago. Haven’t watched for over 3 years now) – and it’s a little raunchy but not as raunchy as other CBS comedies. I’m glad The Millers is doing well – another funny one. Those two, along with TBBT and HIMYM, are all I watch on CBS.

Carmen

Mom is the best of the new CBS comedies.
I think that CBS thinks so too. It is the reason that Mom didn’t get one of the sweetheart Thursday night slots (built around TBBT and TAAHM).
They CBS felt it (Mom) would be able to hold better on Monday than either Crazy Ones or the Millers.

The crash of We Are Men and the (somewhat) unexpected success so far of Sleepy Hollow has hurt Mom. CBS, though, is far from worried about it yet.