Tag Archives: Cesar Hernandez

It’s an exciting time for shortstops in fantasy baseball, and for reality baseball for that matter as well — but as I like to say…this is real living in a fantasy world. And I can’t get enough of it! 7 of the top 10 ranked shortstops on this list are 23 years old or younger. Yes, that is correct! That is the state of where this position is moving toward in fantasy baseball, which might make it appear to be very attractive and deeper than recent years. I will say that it is deeper in terms of the amount of talent and potential, but there might be an overrating of some of the young talent. I know what you’re thinking — “How can you say it’s overrating of young talent when you have 7 of the youngsters ranked so highly in the top 10?” Well, it’s simple. There’s the super elite talent at the top 2, but after that it is a steep dropoff to some of these other youngsters that are being treated as if they are already valuable fantasy commodities when in the reality of the fantasy world they have much to prove. Yet, they are still better than much of the rest of the shortstop player pool.

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL SHORTSTOP RANKINGS. Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.

The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).

The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.

Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks.

The third basemen rankings are front loaded with some pretty excellent talent that includes an MVP, a slew of rising stars under the age of 25, and a couple of consistent veterans. Once you get passed all of that fantasy goodness though, the depth of the position really begins to lack as several of the players are also eligible at what are generally considered to be shallower positions like second base and shortstop — with second base lacking star talent depth and shortstop just lacking reliable depth. I certainly would want to come away with one of the first 8 or 9 third basemen listed in the rankings because after they’re off the board, the hot corner won’t be looking so hot anymore.

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL THIRD BASEMEN RANKINGS. Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.

The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).

The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.

Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks.

The second base position appears to be getting deeper with usable fantasy players, and in that sense it is probably the next deepest infield position behind first base. However, just because the player pool at the position is deep, that doesn’t mean that there’s a slew of elite talent there. To reference How I Met Your Mother, this is like the “cheerleader effect” when looking at second basemen. As a collective group, this pool of players may look pretty attractive 17 players or so down the list when you see the guys with the name value like Ian Kinsler, Ben Zobrist, and Dustin Pedroia, but when looking at them individually you see that most of them have their own sticking point, and there are really only a few studly looking gentlemen that you actually want to get to second base with. See what I did there?

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL SECOND BASEMEN RANKINGS. Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.

The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).

The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.

Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks.

The Cincinnati Reds announced that left-handed pitcher Tony Cingrani would be returning from the DL with a shoulder injury on Wednesday against the Cubs and he will be inserted into the starting rotation after working in relief for the whole 2015 season so far.

For a refresher, or if you are unfamiliar with Cingrani, he is a former top pitching prospect in the Reds organization and he zoomed his way through the Minor Leagues, showing complete dominance with 1.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 11.85 K/9 vs. 2.70 BB/9 in the course of his Minor League career in 223.1 IP. He became a fixture on the Reds Major League roster in the 2013 season when he posted a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 120 K/43 BB in 104.2 IP in 23 appearances (18 starts). With that strong rookie season, Cingrani was a popular pick to breakout even further in the 2014 season. However, Cingrani was a big bust in 2014 with injuries playing a role, and he finished the season making just 13 appearances (11 starts) to compile an ugly 4.55 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 61 K/35 BB in 63.1 IP.

It wasn’t necessarily just injuries though that prevented Cingrani from repeating his rookie season success. Also potentially playing a factor was his pitch usage. Cingrani has always been a pitcher to rely very heavily on his fastball as it is a pitch that he has now thrown a whopping 79.7% of the time in his short Major League career up to this point. There are just not any starting pitchers in the league who throw fastballs at that type of rate because it’s just not a good formula for success — for a point of reference, the highest fastball percentage of any starting pitcher this season is Gerrit Cole at 69.5%. With fastballs being thrown at the rate Cingrani has thrown them at, opposing hitters only have to worry about looking for a fastball most of the time and if that’s what they are guessing, then 4 out of 5 times they would be right. What Cingrani does have going for him with his fastball though is that he gets a lot of vertical movement on the pitch, or in other words, his fastball has rising action that can make it difficult for hitters to catch up to when it is up in the zone.

To go with the fastball, he will mix in an occasional slider and changeup, but his changeup just isn’t that great of a pitch as it has induced swinging strikes just a mere 4.2% of the time. So the lack of a quality third pitch offering also adds to the poor formula for success for a starting pitcher. Starting pitchers generally want to have at least three quality pitches and be able to use them all with confidence. Having at least three pitch options helps to keep opposing hitters guessing more to get them off balance.

So with such a heavy reliance on the fastball and a lack of a quality third pitch (and significant use of it), Cingrani would appear to profile more as a relief pitcher, despite what his Minor League success would suggest. In the Minor Leagues, he was likely able to get away with these things better because the talent level obviously is much lower than the Majors and his deceptive delivery probably aided him as well. So in his 2013 rookie season, it should have come as no surprise that he was able to carry over that same type of Minor League success over to the Majors initially. With Major League teams being so unfamiliar with him since they never had seen him before, that deception likely created a lot of confusion for hitters. But after more and more game film on him was made available with each additional start he made in the Majors, better scouting reports were probably generated and given to the hitters, which caused some regression for Cingrani as the 2013 season went on, and it must have also given hitters in 2014 better preparation when facing him.

So for the 2015 season, the Reds shifted Cingrani to the relief role where many scouts believed his mostly fastballs approach could be better utilized. It was believed that he could possibly be the heir apparent to Aroldis Chapman at closer since Chapman will be a free agent at the end of the 2016 season. As a reliever this season, Cingrani has shown occasional dominance, but poor control has gotten the best of him at times and he had a 3.47 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 26 K/17 BB in 23.1 IP before landing on the DL with a shoulder injury.

With the flawed pitch usage, poor control, and returning from a shoulder injury, it is hard to envision Cingrani’s return to the rotation going over very well. But with the Reds being sellers nearing the trade deadline, they could be shipping off Johnny Cueto and/or Mike Leake, which is going to leave them pretty starved for starting pitching. So it probably wouldn’t hurt to give Cingrani another shot at starting, but his best chance at a quality career may be in the bullpen ala Zach Britton.

For deeper season long fantasy leagues, he should be scooped up just knowing what his upside is as seen from his 2013 rookie season. In dynasty leagues, it would be a more fine addition if by some chance he is able to turn some type of corner. But overall, I wouldn’t be expecting anything extraordinary for him — but taking a chance on him isn’t the worst of ideas either. If you pick him up, then you just kind of have to cross your fingers that he makes adjustments because he’s not likely to succeed if he sticks with the same approach.

What can’t Mike Trout do? He debuted in the Majors at just 20 years old in 2011 and his official rookie season was 2012, and since then he has won the AL Rookie of the Year Award, been an All-Star in all four seasons, has won two All-Star Game MVP Awards in a row, has won a Silver Slugger Award in each season with another one on the way in 2015, finished 2nd in the AL MVP voting twice, took home the AL MVP Award last season, and is likely looking at being the AL MVP yet again this year. I suppose he hasn’t won a Gold Glove Award yet, but he’s been robbed of that and he still is simply stellar in center field.

On Friday, he launched the third walk off home run of his career when he took Koji Uehara deep into the night. He is now hitting .311 with 27 HR, 56 RBI, 69 R, and 9 SB, and he leads the AL in HR. If we want to nitpick at his flaws, we can look at his gradually declining SB totals over his young career or his less than stellar strikeout rate. But the fact is that he is the best all-around player in the game and he has been ever since he walked onto the field in his rookie season. There are no more words that need to be said to describe him, so just sit back and enjoy the show in Anaheim.

Let’s check out what else happened on Friday as we are now back from the All-Star break!Continue reading →

For fantasy baseball purposes, the All-Star Game player voting and selection has zero bearing on anything, but the game and festivities themselves are a nice break in the action where we can have a short hiatus from constantly checking on box scores, live updates, MLB.tv, and the like. It’s a period where our significant others will be glad to have us paying more attention to them and less attention to a bunch of dudes in tight pants (*in most cases, wink wink).

So on Sunday the All-Star starters were announced, as voted on by the fans, and on Monday the rest of each league’s roster was released. As always, there were some interesting and undeserving selections that people are going to have some beef with. These were my AL All-Star predictions and these were my NL All-Star predictions. Overall, out of the 68 players that have been announced as All-Stars so far, I selected 50 correct for a 73.5% success rate. That’s lower than I would have expected, but these managers made some unexpected choices. Here are the rosters as reported by CBS Sports:

The AL starters didn’t pan out as I exepcted, as I felt that the fans would get it right by electing Jose Bautista over Alex Gordon and I predicted that the Royals faithful would be able to get Kendrys Morales in over Nelson Cruz. So the Royals will have four starters, which I suppose is better than the eight that they were projected to have at one point. Cain is a borderline All-Star, but Gordon definitely has no business being here.

Brian McCann got left off the team, which is probably the correct call, but another Yankee Mark Teixeira made it onto the squad because of the injury to Miguel Cabrera. Despite Alex Rodriguez’ strong performance to this point, he was omitted from the roster, which may speak volumes as to how the players and coaches feel about him. Jason Kipnis made it on as a reserve second baseman, but Brian Dozier definitely should have been included somehow. Jose Iglesias and his superior defense made it over Jose Reyes, which I do not have an issue with. But one big issue that I do have is Adam Jones making it onto the roster when there are outfielders like Brett Gardner and George Springer who are having much more impressive seasons. Brock Holt doesn’t really have the stats that scream “All-Star,” but I have no issue with him making it as the Red Sox representative because he really has been that team’s MVP with his ability to play all over the field.

All the starting pitchers selected were no-brainers, but it got a little tricky with the relievers. Dellin Betances, Glen Perkins, and Zach Britton have undoubtedly been the the American League’s best closers, but Huston Street could have easily been selected over Brad Boxberger. Then there’s no issue with manager Ned Yost selecting his own setup man Wade Davis and the Orioles setup man Darren O’Day, but it is a bit of a homer pick by Yost to choose Kelvin Herrera. Herrera is having a nice season, but nothing too dominant, and this spot could easily have gone to Street or he could have chosen one of the outfield snubs.

Out of the final vote candidates, Brett Gardner and Brian Dozier are clearly the most deserving of being All-Stars, but given the strong backing for the Royals players this season, I expect Mike Moustakas to win the vote. Moustakas is having a breakthrough season at the plate being able to hit left-handed pitching now, but there are better players that deserve it more.

Right away there’s a snub that with Yadier Molina making it over Derek Norris. Having Molina as an All-Star is purely just a reputation pick because Norris has been the better offensive catcher all season long and though his defense hasn’t been as good as Molina’s, he still ranks pretty high up there for NL catchers. With Joey Votto’s recent slump, it’s no surprise to see Adrian Gonzalez selected by Bruce Bochy. Also no surprise to see is that Bochy went with the homer picks and selected his middle infielders, Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford to the team. One of them should have been left off the roster in favor of Troy Tulowitzki who has been ripping the ball as of late. Kris Bryant is a questionable pick to take Giancarlo Stanton’s place on the team, but the fans will surely like to see Bryant partake in the Home Run Derby if they can’t see Stanton. And it is a bit odd that Andrew McCutchen was selected over his teammate Starling Marte despite the fact that Marte has been having the superior season. Perhaps Marte’s recent oblique injury had something to do with it, but he is still on the active roster and not on the DL.

I am a bit surprised that Clayton Kershaw is not on the All-Star roster, but I do not have a problem with A.J. Burnett appearing to be the one to have beaten Kershaw for it. Kershaw just hasn’t been as dominant this season, despite leading the league in strikeouts, and it’s a nice honor for Burnett to go to the game in what is going to be his final season in the Majors. It is a bit of an upset for Mark Melancon to make the squad over both Jeurys Familia and Drew Storen. Yes, Melancon has leads the league in saves, but Storen and Familia have been much more dominant. If Ryan Braun had been selected as the Brewers representative, then that would have left Francisco Rodriguez off, which also would have opened up a spot for either Storen or Familia.

Despite the Reds playing host to the All-Star festivities, I expect Clayton Kershaw to beat out Johnny Cueto for the final vote. MLB fans around the nation just love Kershaw too much for him to not win this 5-man popularity contest.

For the first time ever in his 13-year career, on the 4th of July, Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera has landed on the DL with a calf strain that he suffered as a base runner taking off from first to second base. The injury is expected to sideline Cabrera for 6 weeks. It’s nothing short of amazing how Cabrera has gone so long without ever incurring an injury that he was unable to play through, but he is now 32 years old and with this calf injury and the ankle injury that he played through for a good portion of the 2014 season, there appear to be some chinks in his armor at a time where we should be expecting him to exit his offensive prime anyway.

With his ankle injury last year, he still was able to hit .313 with 25 HR, 109 RBI, and 101 R, but remarkably, that was his lowest batting average since 2009 and his lowest HR total since 2006. This season he is batting what would be a career best of .350, but with just 15 HR before the injury, he was once again on pace for one of his lowest HR totals and with the injury, it’s all but guaranteed that it will be one of his worst HR outputs of his career.

Cabrera is still obviously a great hitter and he will have several more years left in the league where he will produce much better than the average player. But here is what I said about him in the pre-season rankings:

“You know how we saw the beginning of the decline of Albert Pujols in his age 31 season in 2011 when he “only” hit .299/.366/.541 with 37 HR, 99 RBI, and 105 R? Well, we saw something similar from M-Cab last year in his age 31 season. Perhaps it can be contributed to the bum foot that he was playing on, which has since been surgically repaired. Even so, there is a decent chance that he continues to experience an assortment of injuries as he is now on the wrong side of 30. So I’m pretty sure his best days are behind him, but of course he still is a better hitter than most of the league.”

So let’s go ahead and categorize this into the “assortment of injuries” column.

The Tigers will surely miss his bat, and it will be interesting to see how the offense responds to Cabrera’s absence. With J.D. Martinez so hot right now, it’s possible that he can shoulder the load to carry the team. But at some point, the Tigers offense should experience some rough times without Cabrera.

For fantasy squads, it’s nothing short of heartbreaking to lose a 1st round pick to the DL for a significant amount of time. First it was Giancarlo Stanton a couple weeks ago and now it’s Cabrera. Their production simply can’t be replicated, so you just have to make due with what you can.

As a 20-year old phenom, Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez took the baseball world by storm by earning the 2013 NL Rookie of the Year Award with a 12-6 record, 2.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 187 K/58 BB in 172.2 IP. Big things were expected of him in 2014 and he showed much of the same in 8 starts to begin the season with a 4-2 record, 2.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 70 K/13 BB in 51.2 IP. But after that 8th start, it was learned that he would have to undergo Tommy John surgery, breaking the hearts of fantasy owners around the nation and Marlins fans…errr, nowhere.

A few weeks ago, the Marlins tabbed July 2 as the date that the now 22-year old Fernandez would take the mound in a Major League game for the first time in nearly 14 months. And for the most part, his rehab went pretty well so it was expected that Fernandez would step right in and make an immediate impact for the Fish.

So the day finally came on Thursday in front of the home crowd and it didn’t get off to such a hot start as Fernandez gave up 3 hits and a sacrifice fly in the 1st inning to fall behind 2-0. However, he settled down after that to allow a total of 3 runs on 7 hits and 0 walks in 6 innings while striking out 6. He also helped his own cause by smashing his 2nd career HR off Matt Cain, and he admired it for a few seconds before beginning to round the bases, giving Cain a good glare as he rounded first base. Fernandez hit the upper 90’s on the radar gun multiple times, getting as high as 99 MPH, and his average fastball velocity was right in line with what it was before the Tommy John surgery, which is obviously a great indication that he’s feeling great.

What we need to watch for though is how his command and control are in the next few starts. Pitchers in their first year back from Tommy John surgery tend to struggle in that area, especially when it’s just around 12-14 months after their last Major League game (as opposed to the 19-20 months that Matt Harvey had). However, Fernandez had good control to begin with, so any possible struggle wouldn’t take away too much from his game.

For the rest of the season, I’ll give Fernandez a line of 6 W-3 L, 3.04 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 88 K/25 BB in 80 IP.

My pre-season love for Indians pitcher Carlos Carrasco was no secret as I tabbed him to be “This Year’s Corey Kluber,” but it just has not been happening for the 28-year old. Despite elite strikeout (9.85 K/9) and walk (1.93 BB/9) rates that were the big factors toward his great SIERA (2.89) and xFIP (2.85) entering Wednesday’s action, Carrasco was the owner of a mediocre 4.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. So he was hardly Kluber-izing the baseball nation and there is one key reason with a couple of causal secondary reasons that was preventing him from the big breakout.

The main reason that he’s been underwhelming and not meeting expectations this year lies in his BABIP (batting average on balls in play — measures the rate at which balls in the field of play go for hits), which sat at .336 coming into Wednesday. Then there are two reasons why his BABIP has been so high. The first reason being that his 32.8% hard hit rate entering the day was the 12th highest in baseball and much higher than his mark of 24.6% last season, which would suggest that he has been struggling with hitting his location a lot and the batters just mash it hard somewhere. The second reason why his BABIP has been so high is that the defense behind him rates very poorly as the 27th ranked team in both DEF and UZR. With a poor defense behind him, a pitcher is more likely to have a higher BABIP as balls get by defenders with lack of range, hits get by defenders because of the failure/misuse of a shift, or some combination of both. And this can be seen in more detail in “Sometimes A Pitcher Is Only As Good As His Defense.”

On Wednesday though, Carrasco finally had his big breakout game of the season where he came within one strike of completing a no-hitter before Joey Butler roped a single over the second baseman’s head that drove in a run for the Rays. Carrasco ended up being removed from the game after the hit since his pitch count was pretty high, but he finished the game with a spectacular line of 8.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 13 K with the W.

I think that Carrasco learned in order to avoid all the hits and high BABIP, he had to take things into his own hands and that the best way to combat having a bad defense is to just record a strikeout for half the outs to limit the defense’s opportunity to mess things up. And that’s what he did with exactly half of the 26 outs he got being of the strikeout variety. The 1-hit performance brought Carrasco’s BABIP down from .336 to .323. Carrasco figures to continue to improve his overall numbers over the second half of the season and be a fantasy asset, but it may not be to the extent that we hope for if he keeps on getting some bad defense behind him. Carrasco is now 10-6 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 110 K/21 BB in 97.1 IP.