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KPMG's Gary Matuszak presents findings of tech innovation survey

Will Silicon Valley continue to maintain its market-leading position for technology innovation? It's a question that's often pondered and debated, especially in the Valley, which has the most to lose if the emerging markets of China or India take over leadership.

KPMG took a look at this question and other trends in its annual Technology Innovation Survey, and found that the center of gravity may not be shifting quite so fast to the East as once predicted. The KPMG survey of 811 technology executives globally found that one-third believe the Valley will likely lose its tech trophy to an overseas market within just four years. That percentage might seem high, but it compares with nearly half (44 percent) in last year's survey. It's a notable improvement for the Valley, as the U.S. economy and tech sector pick up.

Which country will lead in disruptive breakthroughs? Here, the U.S. again solidifies its long-standing reputation as the world's tech giant while China has slipped in stature from a year ago, according to the survey. In last year's poll, the U.S. and China were tied for the top spot. But today, some 37 percent predict that the U.S. shows the most promise for tech disruptions, little surprise considering 's strong showing in the survey as top company innovator in the world with its Google glass and driver-less cars. Meanwhile, about one-quarter pick China, which is progressing from a reputation for just copying to also innovating or micro-innovating. India, with a heritage of leadership in outsourcing, a large talent pool of engineers, ample mentoring from networking groups such as TiE, and a vibrant mobile communications market, ranked right behind the U.S. and China two years in a row.

Even though China's rank slid in this year's tech innovation survey, its Silicon Dragon tech economy is still regarded as the leading challenger and most likely to replace the Valley, fueled by the market's huge, fast-growing and towering brands such as Tencent, and Alibaba, and a growing footprint overseas. KPMG partner Egidio Zarrella notes that China is innovating at an "impressive speed," driven by domestic consumption for local brands that are unique to the market. "China will innovate for China's sake," he observes, adding that with improved research and development capabilities, China will bridge the gap in expanding globally.

For another appraisal of China's tech innovation prowess, see Forbes post detailing how Mary Meeker's annual trends report singles out the market's merits, including the fact that China leads the world for the most Internet and mobile communications users and has a tech-savvy consumer class that embraces new technologies.

Besides China, it's India that shines in the KPMG survey. India scores as the second-most likely country to topple the U.S. for tech leadership. And, significantly, this emerging tiger nation ranks first on an index that measures each country's confidence in its own tech innovation abilities. Based on ten factors, India rates highest on talent, mentoring, and customer adoption of new technologies.

The U.S. came in third on the confidence index, while Israel's Silicon Wadi ranked second. Israel was deemed strong in disruptive technologies, talent and technology infrastructure. The U.S. was judged strongest in tech infrastructure, access to alliances and partnerships, talent, and technology breakthroughs, and weakest in educational system and government incentives. Those weaknesses for the U.S. are points that should be underscored in America's tech clusters and in the nation's capital as future tech leadership unfolds.

A second part of the comprehensive survey covering tech sectors pinpointed cloud computing and mobile communications as hardly a fad but here to stay at least for the next three years as the most disruptive technologies. Both were highlighted in the 2012 report a well. In a change from last year, however, big data and biometrics (face, voice and hand gestures that are digitally read) were identified as top sectors that will see big breakthroughs. It's brave new tech world.