Home builders’ confidence rose four points to 49 in June — the highest level in five months — but respondents were still a bit pessimistic, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing-market index released Monday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a June reading of 47, compared with 45 in May.

It’s worth noting that there’s been one report on the U.S. economy that hasn’t been that great today.

The IMF cut its growth estimate for the U.S. to 2% for 2014, down from the 2.8% it projected in April, reports MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein.

The IMF, in the Article IV consultation which it conducts with every member country annually, also forecasts weaker potential growth of “around 2%” for the next several years due to the effects of population aging and more modest prospects for productivity growth, says his short story.

The former Galleon boss lost his appeal to have his 2011 insider trading conviction overturned. The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday declined to consider a challenge of his conviction of 14 counts of securities fraud and conspiracy for trading on sensitive inside information of several companies, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. /quotes/zigman/188479/delayed/quotes/nls/gsGS.

The pound is trading at its highest level since August 2009. The pound has taken a run on the $1.70 level, topping it briefly earlier Monday, after Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney said the first interest-rate hike could come sooner than the markets expect. Of course, investors had already been bidding up the pound against the dollar in 2014 as data confirmed a continued U.K. economic recovery. The pound has gained 2.6% against the dollar in 2014 to date.

While today’s data was upbeat, investors are focusing on the FOMC meeting which starts on Tuesday.

On Wednesday at 2pm, the Fed will issue a statement about the monetary policy, which is not expected to be much different from the previous statement.

Alan Blinder, professor of economics at Princeton University and the former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, thinks that the looming Fed exit debate may hurt stocks.

Via Greg Robb:

A fight is brewing over when to raise short-term interest rates and how fast to exit the massive stimulus program and this “loud and vociferous” debate will definitely roil fixed-income markets and the volatility could spread to equity markets.

Merger Monday seems to be a regular calendar event and excitement about prospective deals is running high. But while M&A is accelerating in volume terms, the number of deals seen so far this year is lower than a year ago, according to analyst Jason Goldberg at Barclays.

Citing numbers from Thomson Reuters, announced M&A totaled $756 billion in the first quarter. Activity has since acclerated,with April the strongest month since the financial crisis. Goldberg notes. And as of June 9, deal volume for the second quarter had already topped the Q1 total and was up 33% from the second quarter of 2013. If the torrid pace continues, Goldberg notes, M&A will be on track to rise almost 75% year-over-year in 2014.

At the same time, just over 8,200 worldwide deals were announced during the first quarter, that’s down 10% from a year earlier and the lowest opening period for M&S since 2004. Year-to-date, the number of transactions is still running 6% below 2013, Barclays noted.

In its annual review of the U.S. economy, the IMF said increasing the minimum wage and expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit would help raise the incomes of millions of poor, working Americans. Read the IMF’s review.

IMF also cut its growth estimate for the U.S. to 2% for 2014, down from 2.8% it projected in April. The fund still expects growth of 3% next year. It said the weak 2014 estimate was largely due to a first quarter hit by a severe winter.

SunPower Corp., the second largest U.S. solar-panel maker, saw its shares rally 5.8% Monday after the company said it closed on a $200 million loan program to fund residential solar projects over the next two years.

Arts and crafts chain Michaels Cos., taken private by Bain Capital and Blackstone Group in 2006, said in a filing on Monday that it plans to return to the public market and sell 27.8 million shares for $17 to $19 a share.

The 1,263-store chain didn’t give a date for the stock’s debut, but indicated that it would be some time this year. Michaels had $4.6 billion in sales last year.

Tensions in Iraq are likely to continue to impact oil prices while the Federal Reserve is expected to loom large in the financial markets with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week, according to Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Asset Management Group.

“No changes are expected to be made to key interest rates. However, the Fed is expected to announce another $10 billion taper to its monthly bond purchases,” said Stone in his research note.

The strife in Iraq may not immediately affect the country’s daily oil output but could have a lasting impact on production going forward which in turn could derail predictions of Brent crude dropping below $100 a barrel in the future.

“Any long-term forecast that says oil prices will be $90 or even sub-$100 needs Iraq to produce at 6 million to 8 million barrels a day, if not higher,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects.

It’s been historic how steady this market has been as this part of the economic cycle upswing has built upon itself since the bottom in 2008. And we don’t even get temporary panicky sell-offs over geopolitical crises like we did in the last few years. The escalation of war and terror in Iraq itself is sickening and my prayers go out to everybody there. And as a market observer and trader, it’s rather surprising that the stock markets have hardly hiccuped as the violence and uprisings and potential for more anarchy and destruction in Iraq and its surrounding countries escalates.

The buildup of central-banking interest in equities is one of the unexpected consequences of the last few years’ fall in interest rates, which has depressed the returns on central banks’ foreign exchange reserves and driven them to find alternative investment targets.

In the years since the financial crisis, central banks have leapt to the forefront of public policy making. They have taken responsibility for lowering interest rates, for maintaining stability of financial institutions, and for buying up government debt to help economies recover from recession.

Now it seems that they have become important in another area, too, in starting to build up holdings of equities.

The Argentina Merval Index slid 8% to 7,377.59. The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange index was down 7% to 22,267.73.

Argentina was appealing a lower-court ruling ordering it to pay billions to hedge funds who had earlier spurned restructured debt offerings. The creditors include billionaire Paul Singer’s NML Capital. The justices declined to hear the appeal and also ruled 7-1 that creditors may view banking information tied to Argentina’s assets overseas.

Bitcoin security platform BitGo on Wednesday said it raised $12 million in Series A funding, attracting an investment from actor Ashton Kutcher’s A-Grade Investments. The round was led by Menlo Park, Calif.-based Redpoint Ventures and also included funding from Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.

Kutcher, who recently played the titular role in the movie “Jobs,” has made a name of himself in the investing world. A-Grade Investments has backed Spotify, Uber Technologies and Airbnb.

Oil futures held steady but near nine-month highs Monday, erasing or trimming earlier gains on expectations Iraq’s main oil-producing areas will remain insulated from the sectarian violence sweeping the north of the country as Sunni militants battle the Iraqi government.

So the main indexes managed to close higher on Monday, and they’re now all up for two days in a row.

It was a choppy session, with stocks switching between gains and losses before finally ending in the green.

There were plenty of drivers, from M&A activity and upbeat U.S. economic reports on housing and industrial production to — on the downside — worries about Iraq and Ukraine, plus the IMF downgrading its forecast for the U.S economy.

Story Conversation

About The Tell

The Tell is MarketWatch’s fast and engaging look at trends and themes in the day’s markets. Drawing on our reporters, analysts and commentators around the world, as well as selecting the best of the rest online, The Tell is all about the pulse of the markets through news, insight and strategic information to help you make the best investing decisions. Got a tip? Tell us at TheTell@MarketWatch.com