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New Vehicle Technology Driven By Economics

Each year brings a new crop of vehicles and the automotive technology that comes along for the ride. The year 2012 is no exception; in fact, you could say this year’s changes are a bumper crop of new ideas.

Global economic changes, government-driven change and consumer realities push the technology that’s coming to your service bay. A look at this year’s circumstances is a good way to understand the whys of the technical changes that are coming.

Despite the overall concerns about the American and European econ­o­mies, vehicle sales are doing very well right now. Predictions are that about 14 million new cars will be sold in the U.S. this year—way better than the 10.2 million sold in 2009. The sales of trucks, both light and heavy-duty, are booming.

The rise in sales could be attributed to pent-up demand. To replace the vehicles that are scrapped requires that about 12 million new vehicles be built each year. The fact that the average vehicle on the road today is almost 10 years old is great for the service and repair industry. Currently, there are about 240 million cars and trucks traveling over American highways.

These results of the improved sales numbers can be seen all over the country. Over half of the car plants that have been closed in the last 20 years have found new uses. This trend is likely to continue as currency shifts favor American manufacturing. The government is predicting that 190,000 new autoworkers will need to be hired over the next three years.

Things are tougher for the Japanese automakers. Their currency, the yen, has risen vs. both the dollar and the Euro. This change in the currency is as much, or more, of a disaster than the earthquake-tsunami the Japanese suffered in March 2011. Automotive products, both parts and complete cars, made in Japan and shipped to the U.S. are now more than 20% more expensive than they were a year ago. Toyota reports that when the yen rises above 80 yen to the dollar (a falling number of yen to the dollar means the currency is rising), it loses money on every Yaris sold. The yen-to-dollar number is currently 77.

Another major trend is the shifting American dependence on foreign oil. Five years ago, the U.S. imported more than 60% of its annual fuel need. That number today is already below 50% and falling. Advanced oil drilling technology, including horizontal drilling and fracking, have opened huge new oil resources in such areas as North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota. At roughly $100 per barrel, the oil sands of Canada are also in production and doing well. Longer term, there have been major new oil discoveries off the coast of Brazil that will offset the fading production of some of the older areas. The Gulf of Mexico has benefited from deep sea drilling as the coastal area production has faded.

That said, it isn’t only new production techniques and new discoveries that are helping the oil situation. The last five years have seen the introduction of major new fuel-saving technologies like gasoline direct injection (GDI). Government regulations have had a major role in pushing this development. Lighter weight, more efficient and more aerodynamic vehicles are on the way. The recession, with fewer miles being driven, is also a factor. One surprising bit of help is that teenage drivers are waiting longer to get their licenses, and are driving less as a result.

Recently passed government regulations will require cars to get an average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. This is expected to add between $2000 and $12,000 to the cost of a vehicle, depending on who you believe (these are NHTSA and EPA estimates for cost, respectively). The total cost is estimated at $157 billion, but that’s supposed to be offset by expected fuel savings of $515 billion. It’s likely that those targets may shift over time, but clearly the U.S. government is pushing hard for better fuel economy performance.

One last thing of note to point out is automobile safety. In 2011, about 32,000 Americans lost their lives in automobile accidents. This is the lowest number since 1949. If you were to adjust the numbers to compensate for the far higher number of vehicles and miles driven today, the improvement in safety would be even more impressive. Electronic stability control (ESC) is now required on all passenger vehicles and will likely push the fatality numbers down even further in the years ahead.

Hybrids & Electrics

A significant part of the plan for 54.5 mpg by 2025 hinges on the success of hybrid and electric vehicle technology. Right now, this segment of the market is struggling to justify itself. In a total market of 14 million vehicles, the Chevy Volt sold approximately 6000 copies in 2011. The Euro version, called the Opel Ampera, will do better at about 15,000. Nissan’s president Carlos Ghosn says it hopes the Nissan Leaf will be profitable by 2014. Tesla has announced a $100 million-plus deal that will have that company supplying batteries and electric motors for the Toyota RAV4 EV. All added up, though, the electrics are currently a very small part of the overall automotive market.

Governments around the world are up to their necks in funding the push for better fuel economy, at least in part through electric vehicles. Germany, for example, is planning to double aid to its carmakers. The intention is to fund some 3 billion Euros worth of development aimed at getting a million EVs on Germany’s roads by 2020—a very ambitious target. Government funding in the U.S., Japan and Europe is a major factor in pushing this technology.

At the moment, there are approximately 28 different hybrid models for sale in the global market, but so far they represent less than 2% of all sales. Some companies like Porsche and Nissan have quietly dropped the hybrid models they were making. The Norwegian company that made the Think! electric vehicle has closed. Another company called Aptera has ceased manufacture. General Motors is offering mild hybrid solutions on a number of models (Buick Lucerne, Regal and others) but has pointedly avoided calling their e-Assist vehicles hybrids.

All of that aside, there’s tremendous momentum in the marketplace for alternative powertrain vehicles. New models and even new carmakers are coming to the market with their offerings. Plug-in hybrids that get some of their energy from the electrical grid is one segment that’s expanding. Peugeot in Europe has been showing a plug-in hybrid called the MPV HX1. This vehicle is very aerodynamic with a low coefficient of drag (cD) of .28. It has a 2.4L diesel plus an electric drive motor, with a combined power of 299 hp. The vehicle is rated at 88 mpg.

How much has been spent on battery development over the last ten years is a hard number to come by. Certainly it’s in the billions, and maybe even in the tens of billions. Some of those results are now showing up as incremental improvements. A company in Framingham, MA, called A123 has announced that it will supply a lithium-iron-phosphate battery to GM for use in the Spark. It stores about 10% less energy than a lithium-ion or nickel-metal hydride battery but is less likely to catch fire in a severe accident. The Volt will continue to use the Li-ion battery it was originally equipped with.

Meanwhile, there are new entrants to the electric car market. Fisker is now making two different Karma electric vehicle models in the Wilmington, DE, plant that once made the Pontiac Solstice and Saturn Sky. The Karma is a four-door sports sedan that bears more than a passing resemblance to the BMW Z4. It’s equipped with a 4-cylinder, 200-hp motor that powers a 175kW generator. Either the battery or the motor-generator can supply the needed electric power to move the vehicle. Priced at $100,000, the all-electric range for the Karma is about 50 miles. The hoped-for breakthrough in battery technology that would greatly extend the electric-only range has not yet happened for any of the EV makers. The total range for the Karma—gasoline and electric—is about 400 miles.

Toyota’s very successful Prius line continues to expand. The Gen V Prius is longer, bigger and wider. The added weight hurts in the fuel economy department; it’s now 42 mpg, while the older smaller model made 49 mpg. A plug-in version is available for 2012 and there will be a smaller “city” model. Toyota continues to insist that its fuel cell vehicle will be ready for the 2015 model year.

One area of initial concern about the electric vehicle’s battery life has turned into something of a nonissue. The experience so far is that the hybrid batteries, both nickel-metal hydride and Li-ion, have lasted well. Ford says that it bought back some NiMH batteries used in Escapes. The vehicles had been in taxi fleets, with up to 250,000 miles accumulated on some of them. When tested, the batteries still had 85% of their original storage capacity. Out of the millions of individual cells, only five were shown to have failed.

High-Development Conventional Vehicles

A number of vehicle makers have come up with companywide plans for transformation. Mazda, for example, calls its plan SkyActiv. It has decided to pass on hybrids and electrics in favor of intense further development of conventional technology. This is intended to be a clean-sheet, new-design approach that will affect every aspect of its products.

The body shell of the 2012 Mazda3 has been redesigned to be 8% lighter and 30% stronger. The engine is the new MZR 2.0L dual-overhead-cam, 16-valve, 4-cylinder. This is a direct injection engine with reduced friction and special cup-topped pistons. It’s hooked to a SkyActiv-MT six-speed manual transmission or optional SkyActiv-Drive six-speed automatic. With the six-speed automatic, fuel economy is 40 mpg highway, an amazing 21% improvement over what it is with the current 2.0L engine with a five-speed automatic.

Nissan calls its plan “Power 88.” It explains the name by saying its global target market share is 8%, and its target profitability is also 8%. The road to Power 88 includes delivering one all-new vehicle design every six weeks for the next six years. These vehicles are supposed to be enabled by the delivery of some 90 new technologies over the same period.

Honda’s “Earth Dreams” plan is an effort to move the whole company forward in terms of “green” credentials. Honda’s goals include being best in class for fuel economy in each segment of its business. The company says the way to do this is to reduce the displacement of both its gasoline and diesel engines. Along with this, Honda has developed a twin motor hybrid system called SH-AWD. The “SH” stands for “super handling.” It consists of a 3.5L direct injection engine for the front wheels and a pair of electric motors for the rear wheels. Honda says it can get the power of a V8 with the fuel economy of a 4-cylinder.

Engines

Gasoline direct injection continues its path to joining the mainstream technology. The heart of GDI efficiency is that fuel economy is directly related to the compression ratio of the engine. The fuel cooling of the piston in GDI engines has allowed the raising of production engine compression ratios to levels that almost don’t seem possible. Mazda’s SkyActiv engines are running at 13:1 with regular unleaded. Oil cooling of the undersides of the pistons also helps.

Hyundai has a new GDI 3.8L V6. Power is up 15%, to 333 hp. They even have an R-spec motor of 429 hp. This is a GDI 5.0L V8. Clearly, the trend is continuing to smaller engines. Some manufacturers have models that will offer only a 4-cylinder. Pony cars such as the Camaro, Mustang and Charger are generally being fitted with V6s, often with twin turbos.

Honda believes the way forward to best-in-class fuel economy is through engine weight reduction, GDI and the latest version of VTEC. Special coatings on the rings and other sliding surfaces are, in its view, an important contributor to reduced friction and higher engine efficiency.

Ford’s Ecoboost engine has been a huge success. Both 1.6 and 2.0L versions will be available for 2012. The 3.5L V6 with twin turbos has had an excellent “take rate” in the F-150 and the Taurus/ Lincoln products, including the SHO. More than 40% of the buyers are paying extra for the high-tech Ecoboost system. Ford says a V6 will not be offered in the Explorer or Escape because it isn’t needed. Ecoboost is an example of a technology where the payback on the initial extra cost is clearly there in terms of higher fuel mileage. Fleet buyers have seen the logic of this and have been willing to pay extra for the fuel economy benefits.

Turbochargers

Clearly, turbocharging is the way to extract large power from small displacements. This trend has been clear to the Tier One suppliers, and there are number of new entrants, with improved technology entering the marketplace. Bosch and MAHLE have teamed up to offer lighter weight, higher speed turbos. The key is reducing the weight of the turbo shaft and the turbo fans. Reduced weight means lower inertia and faster wind-up times, leading to reduced turbo lag.

Bosch-MAHLE engineers reportedly are already working to develop new technologies for exhaust gas turbocharging. Future exhaust gas turbochargers will further exploit the potential to increase efficiency, responsiveness and acoustic behavior. This allows a further reduction in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. The engineers believe the conventional internal combustion engine is still the best and most efficient means of generating power.

Valeo has taken off in a different direction with a hybrid turbo-supercharger approach. It already owned the design rights to an exhaust-driven turbo that turns an electric generator. Recently, Valeo purchased rights to an electric-driven supercharger developed by the British company Controlled Power Technologies. They say they can get up to 6kW of energy out of that exhaust-driven turbo. The electrically driv­en supercharger is better because it allows boost when you want it. Conventional turbos do not perform well at low rpm when the impellers are not spooled up. The two devices together are claimed to improve fuel economy by 20%.

Transmissions

There seems to be something of an “I’ve got more speeds than you do” competition going on in the industry. Chrysler has announced it will use a nine-speed automatic in some of its vehicles. Hyundai says it developed its own eight-speed transmission in-house. Mercedes introduced an eight-speed last year. The German transmission maker ZF has a nine-speed trans that it says leads to a 21% fuel savings in front-wheel-drive applications.

Meanwhile, automated manual transmissions (AMTs), dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs) and a variety of CVT transmissions are being offered. Early concerns about Ford’s power shift DCT have reportedly been addressed. This DCT transmission was reported jerky and unreliable in early versions of the Focus and Fiesta.

Braking & Suspension Systems

GM has a new process it calls Ferritic Nitro Carburizing (FNC). The company intends to use the process on its brake rotors to reduce rusting. FNC is a type of case-hardening process that diffuses gaseous nitrogen and carbon into the steel of the brake rotors as they’re heated to about 1000°F. The four-hour process improves the antiscuffing and fatigue properties of the metal and prevents rust. These better rotors will be phased in across the GM product line.

The drive to lighter weight vehicles is moving aluminum into the arena of suspension parts. BMW’s new 6 Series makes extensive use of aluminum in both front and rear axle assemblies. This continues the trend toward the reduction of unsprung vehicle weight through the use of aluminum. Aluminum wheels, suspension and drivetrain parts reduce the weight that responds to road vibrations, which improves both vehicle ride and handling.

As a part of its SkyActiv program, Mazda has introduced a new regenerative braking system it calls “i-ELoop.” Current regenerative systems use electromagnetic braking to recapture some of the kinetic energy of a slowing vehicle. This energy is supposed to be stored in the lead-acid cranking motor battery. The problem is that batteries work by chemical reaction, and it takes time for the conversion of energy to the chemical process. The i-ELoop system claims to be the first regenerative brake system to use capacitor storage. Because the caps can absorb the energy as quickly as it’s generated, more net energy is retrieved.

Electronics

Electronic controls announced in the last couple of years continue to improve their market penetration. Lane departure warning systems, blind spot warning systems and forward object detection are moving into midpriced vehicles. Electronic stability control (ESC) is now required on all passenger vehicles.

A new area for electronics is in airflow management on the outside of the vehicle. Already, movable ducts are in use that control the flow of air into and around the engine compartment and cooling system. The effort to reduce the power losses associated with aerodynamic drag will bring more development in this area.

Another possible area for drag reduction is side-view mirrors. These could be replaced by rear-facing cameras that would be configured to show the view on the display in the center stack. The driver might really be better off, as rear-viewing cameras would not be subject to the same blind spot problems as outside mirrors.

New vehicles seem to be equipped with more and more air bags, making small vehicles as safe as larger ones. Active head restraints, knee bags/bolsters, side air bags and the like are filling the smaller, inside spaces of city-size vehicles in the event of a crash. Recently the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety issued “Top Safety Pick” awards to the Ford Focus, Honda Civic and Hyundai Elantra for their improved crash results. Some of the credit may also belong to the stronger steels being used.

Materials

There are a couple of major developments on the materials front. New materials will help in the drive toward lighter weight vehicles. Nissan recently offered a “racing” version of the Leaf, whose entire body is made of carbon composite material. BMW recently completed the purchase of its carbon composite supplier to ensure their supply of the material. Carbon composite is not cheaper than steel, but it’s lighter and does carry the “racing” cachet.

GM says it has formed a joint venture with a company called Teijin to pursue carbon fiber-reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP) technology. This would be a way to make a faster and more efficient composite that could be used in mainstream vehicles. Carbon fiber is 10 times stronger than regular-grade steel, yet only one-quarter the weight. Carbon fiber composites used as automobile components are expected to dramatically reduce vehicle weight. Consumers benefit from lighter weight vehicles with better fuel economy and all the safety benefits that come with vehicles that use greater mass to achieve greater safety. Teijin’s proprietary breakthrough is its ability to mass-produce CFRTP components with cycle times of under a minute. Conventional carbon fiber-reinforced composites use thermosetting resins and require a much longer time frame for molding.

One area being targeted for weight reduction is the exhaust manifold. The old cast-iron manifolds are heavy and not that smooth inside. Several automakers are moving to stainless-steel exhaust manifolds, which can be up to 50% lighter and smoother inside for better airflow. Weight reductions of 10 to 15 pounds per engine are being claimed. Stainless is a more brittle and less ductile material than ordinary steel and more difficult to shape. The experience gained in fabricating stainless-steel exhaust systems has helped automakers apply it to manifolds as well.

Conclusion

The year 2012 proves once again that change is a constant. What’s different this year is that much of the change is the result of governments around the world pushing the carmakers to make more efficient use of the limited fuel resources available. The pressure is on, especially in Europe, to reduce the production of the greenhouse gases that many blame for global warming. The good news for all of us is that the best of these changes are also beginning to make sense economically.