Thursday, May 10, 2012

Anticipointment: It's Harder the Second Time Around

The Excitement Isn't Quite There Like the First Time Around For The President - Benjamin Martin Can Explain It Best..

During our 500 mile trek on Tuesday, we listened as always to the POTUS Channel on XM Radio. It's one of the few places you actually can get into a topic, rather than just skim the obvious without learning anything. One of the regular guests on the channel is Thom Mozloom - a guy any of you who run a campaign can learn a lot from. Mozloom's specialty is marketing and branding in politics. That is, how to package a candidate or their opponent. As Kierkegaard (or was it Dick Van Patten) said, 'You label me, therefore you negate me.' A campaign without a positive label for itself is dead. It makes or breaks you....

During his piece, where he reviews the latest commercials and ads for the campaigns, he came across a term to describe Barack Obama's main challenge in his re-election bid - and it was perfect: Anticipointment. A melding of 'anticipation' and 'disappointment', it explains Obama's plight in 2012. The 2008 campaign was one of those rare cases where a candidate comes through the fog and takes the world by storm, where the entire country gets swept away in the excitement, even to the point of crossing party lines, and voting for him. Bill Clinton had it to a great deal in 1992, even though he didn't get near 50% of the vote.

Barack Obama's wave in 2008 was unbelieveable, we all know it, so we'll skip reviewing it. Even we had a little bit of hope that we may have pegged Obama wrong, and he would turn America around.. The anticipation for him was so great, that it often leads to unrealistic expectations. In the Mel Gibson movie, The Patriot, Benjamin Martin is teaching his boys to shoot rifles, and he had one key piece of advice: Aim Small, Miss Small.. That is, the smaller the focus, the more likely you are to hit your target. On the other hand, if you aim huge and in all directions, you are more apt to miss by a large margin...

Hence, the disappointment part of our term today. Yes, the base is still just as fired up as always. That 40% - just like the GOP's 40% - will point to lots of achievements that they wanted. But, the truth is they don't count, and neither do our 40%. The part that makes or breaks elections - and this is the part that many in the Republican Party STILL don't get a lot - is that the 20% in the middle is what matters. The Bobby's I call them: the ones who flap back and forth like a flag in a strong wind. Those 20% are not jacked up like in 2008. Enough of them may still go back, but our guess is they will stand on the sidelines until the last minute. But they won't be putting signs in the yard or calling neighbors like they did four years ago.

When I ran for Congress, there was book by Matt Miller called The Two Percent Solution: Fixing America's Problems in a Way Both Liberals and Conservatives Can Like . Though we never read it, it was the basis for all of our ideas on running government. Balancing the budget not nearly as tough as it sounds, and compared to the size of the economy, even small cuts do not submarine the economy like some say. Of course now, deficits are so bad - mainly to both Democrats and Republicans' unwillingness to compromise - that it may be closer to a 25 or 30% solution... Still, even a ten percent smaller government would cut $350 billion from the deficit. Add a small adjustments (read: tax hikes) to high income earners, and we're halfway there - and that's before any economic improvement adds even more revenue. It doesn't take much...

But Barack Obama didn't do this.. He went to be the transformative figure that is legendary, but it doesn't always mean in a good way. America's problem right now is it's government spends too much, not that it's not taxed enough. All the tax breaks in the world without spending cuts will not fix America... Aim Big, Miss Big. This is what Mitt Romney needs to remember. If he wins, he doesn't need to swing for the bleachers. America is doing it's part to get the economy back. They're not free wheel spending on cars, McMansions, 2nd homes or 60 inch Plasma TV's like they used to - they just need to work. A couple changes (or 'unchanges') will do the trick... Aim Small, Miss Small - and the Anticipointment won't be there. We like our Presidents quiet...