In 1976, for instance, several classics were released that fit the decade’s mold for serious, gritty, and dour cinema: “All the President’s Men,” “Network,” and “Taxi Driver.” The award ultimately went instead to “Rocky,” a far more uplifting film that represented the bicentennial enthusiasm that briefly took hold of the nation.

This corollary was arguably most prevalent last year as “La La Land” was poised for a historic sweep. A musical love letter to Hollywood, that most American of cities, the film was perfectly attuned to the academy’s tastes. Sure, 2016 was a tumultuous year, but it would all turn out right in the end. Right? Just as millions of Americans spent Election Night dumbstruck, however, so too were viewers confused when “La La Land” was declared, and then immediately undeclared, the winner. The more serious and weighty “Moonlight,” decidedly as black as “La La Land” was white, swooped in at literally the last moment to take the gold.

So what can Oscar tell us about the kind of year 2017 was? Well, that’s the catch. We won’t know until Sunday night. What we can do, though, is break down what impression each of the plausible victors might leave.

There’s a reason we call it “awards season.” The Oscars are just the last in a lineup of guild and foreign awards. If those winners are any indication, the best picture is highly likely to be one of these two films. “The Shape of Water” took home the honors at the PGAs and DGAs, while “Three Billboards” got the SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe. The former is a love story set in the 1960s between a mute custodian in a high-security U.S. government lab and the mysterious creature confined there. The latter is a more contemporary tale about a mother publicly pressuring a lethargic police department to find her daughter’s killer.

“The Shape of Water” would be a shot across the bow against those who seek to keep isolated those who are different. It would also alienate audiences thanks to its … how should I put this? Let’s say … bold choices. On the other hand, the female protagonist of “Three Billboards” fits it into today’s Time’s Up culture quite well. Yet critics despise the film’s racial politics. Neither film has really caught onat the box office, either. A victory for one of these movies would suggest a desire to recognize society’s outcasts, although those good intentions are likely to be criticized as a bit outside the mark.

The outsiders: ‘Get Out’ and ‘Lady Bird’

These two entries are far more favoredby critics and evenmovie-goers. “Get Out” became a cultural landmark that’s relevant a year after its release, whereas “Lady Bird” earned headlines for being the best-reviewed movie ever. One realates the harrowing journey of a black man visiting his white girlfriend’s family. The other is a touching tale of a teenage girl’s turbulent relationship with her mom. Respective directors Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig would both be appropriate avatars for the time: young, talented, and not white guys.

Two problems stand in their way. The first is the makeup of the academy. Even after strenuous efforts, the voting body is still very white and very male. The second is perhaps more surprising as there’s a real possibility that these two movies could cancel each other out. In a bid to prove their progressive bona fides, it’s quite conceivable that the votes are split, and another film could pull a shocking upset.

Should either “Get Out” or “Lady Bird” emerge the victor, the decision would be hailed as a worthy corrective and an acknowledgment of a too-often overlooked segment of the audience as well as the nation.

The long shots: ‘Dunkirk’ and ‘Phantom Thread’

Any other year, these might’ve been our front-runners. “Dunkirk” is both bold and experimental yet also an inspiring World War II story. “Phantom Thread,” meanwhile, is a period-piece costume drama with a superb cast led by (the supposedly retiring) Daniel Day-Lewis. Additionally, directors Christopher Nolan and Paul Thomas Anderson are two are the most beloved filmmakers of their generation and neither has won an Oscar yet.

A win for “Phantom Thread” would produce as many rolled eyes as gasps. Regardless of the film’s merit, viewers will likely interpret such an event as disconnected from any larger meaning. It’s also quite possible that a win for “Dunkirk” would be met with this same feeling, although there’s a case to be made that a tale of surviving to fight the next battle has a ring of #Resistance spirit to it.

We won’t truly know until the winner is at last announced … and maybe not for a few minutes after that.