Andiamo! The Tourissimo Blog

My Short Explanation of the Italian Elections

Last Sunday Italians voted to elect a new government. We are used to doing that. Italy holds the record for the most government turnovers in Europe (perhaps in the world) with 65 in the 70 years of the Republic. How is that possible?

My non-Italian friends have asked me about the Italian elections because they care, because they are worried, and because they are perhaps amused by it but want to understand.

I will give you a bit of explanation, as I would to friends over dinner.

Some background.

After the 20-year Mussolini fascism regime sided in the most awkward ways with the Italian monarch (Vittorio Emanuele III of Savoy), Italy wanted a fresh start and Italians wanted to put WWII behind them.

Italy was literally destroyed but it had a vision. That vision was to let people decide between monarchy and republic and to put not only fascism but all dictatorial threats in a sterile state.

The fear of another totalitarian regime (even after elections such as in Mussolini’s case) was very much the “elephant in the room” when it came time to write the new Italian Constitution.

The constitution is written insuch a way that in practical terms it prevents anyone – party or leader - from having a strong say on anything. One might argue that 65 governments in 70 years is proof that things went too far. In 2016, Matteo Renzi (prime minister #64 PD) promoted a referendum that – among other things – would have given more power to the government, arguing that “more things would finally get done.” It goes almost without saying that Italians did not like that and that the referendum on which Renzi put so much emphasis killed his career soon after.

Cause and effect of the situation we are in is also the proliferation of too many new parties and unlikely coalitions. Everyone who disagrees with the leadership leaves and starts a new party. That often has the side effect of government crisis and...new elections.

There might not be a winner.

Italy is corrupt. Top-down corrupt. A new grassroots movement has established itself as the legal and ethical alternative with young – and as of yet mostly unproven – representatives. The Movimento Cinque Stelle (Five Star Movement) won the elections as a single party with 32% of the vote. The Five Star Movement is a bit unrefined politically but they are learning quickly. Abroad, most people cannot get past the fact that the movement (they don’t call themselves a party) was started by a relentless stand-up comedian: Beppe Grillo.

Italians have seen the PD (center left) of Renzi failing – Mr. Gentiloni #65 took over after Renzi – and Italians also point a finger at the PD for having written two electoral laws in 5 years that have done nothing good to help the electoral process: the first one was partially unconstitutional, and the second one,under which the latest vote was cast, does not allow for a clear winner. M5S took away many of the votes once belonging to PD (especially in the South).

Northern Italians could not resist the temptation of going to the right and voting in great numbers for the coalition of Forza Italia (Berlusconi) – Lega - Fratelli d’Italia. The three party alliance got 35% of the vote with Berlusconi, at 82 years of age and with his controversial political and judicial past, having to leave the leadership to Salvini of Lega. Salvini’s campaign was mostly anti-immigration rhetoric and it struck a cord with EU skeptics.

All political commentators say that M5S and Lega are the winners, but there might not be a winner, after all. No one has enough elected representatives to run the show.

In any case:

Italians favored the so-called anti-establishment parties.

Berlusconi is over for good.

The Left is becoming more and more irrelevant as it is so in the rest of Europe.

The European Union feared our elections. A Brexit move would be a disaster, but the threat of it is convincing the EU that something has to change in the EU project. They might finally listen. The anti-establishment (or new-establishments) leaders have already shown a more open attitude towards the Union that was often blamed for leaving Italy alone in dealing with immigration, and that kept asking – imposing, really - reforms to cut the huge Italian public debt leaving nothing on the table for social policies.

The vote in Italy was not a tragedy in spite of what you may have read in many newspapers outside of Italy. Many news outlets talked about catastrophic scenarios. The catastrophe might be that President Mattarella would have to call for new elections if no one has sufficient numbers to govern.