&nbsp683 &nbspFXHW01 KWNH 221228 &nbspPMDHI &nbsp &nbspHAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION &nbspNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD &nbsp727 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018 &nbsp &nbspVALID 00Z FRI FEB 23 2018 - 00Z FRI MAR 02 2018 &nbsp &nbspMODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLE AGREE AND A FAVORED COMPOSITE &nbspSOLUTION SHOWS A BLOCKY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE &nbspEAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST &nbspOF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A DOWNSTREAM NARROW RIDGE ALONG 150W. &nbspTHIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD &nbspACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO FUEL POTENTIAL OF &nbspLOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. &nbspPRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN ABOUT 1 &nbsp1/3 TO 1 3/4 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE &nbspFOR LATE FEBRUARY. &nbspA FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE STATE AND WINTER &nbspWEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS BIG ISLAND SUMMITS OF MAUNA &nbspLOA AND MAUNA KEA. &nbspANOTHER UPPER LOW MAY FORM NEXT WEEK JUST WEST OF 170W WHICH MAY &nbspPULL THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS WESTWARD NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS WEST &nbspOF KAUAI/NI'IHAU. &nbsp &nbspSCHICHTEL &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp