N.F.L. Schedule: Who We Think Will Win in Week 11

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, celebrating last Sunday’s victory over the Steelers, will now face the Ravens’ stingy defense.CreditDon Wright/Associated Press

By David White

Nov. 18, 2016

The Cowboys are sitting fat, not because they’ve feasted on cornfed portions of the N.F.L.’s top sirloin, but because they’ve binged on junk food like the Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers.

Dallas is 8-1 but has played teams with a combined record of 30-50; the Eagles were a rare morsel of quality in recent weeks. The menu changes this weekend against the visiting Baltimore Ravens, the first of four consecutive opponents with winning records. Three of the Cowboys’ remaining seven opponents hold at least a share of the lead in their division. Tampa Bay is the only team on deck with a record in the red.

We know that Dallas is better than most. It is time now to see how the Cowboys perform against teams with playoff potential, the kind of competition that measures Super Bowl hopes.

Here is a look at Sunday’s matchups and who we think will win them:

Ravens (5-4) at Cowboys (8-1)

1 p.m. Line: Cowboys by 7

Call it the Wall, or the Resistance. This Cowboys offensive line is making it simpler for Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott to thrive as rookies. With opposing pass rushes neutralized by 1,600 pounds of shove-back, the Cowboys’ offense plays a glorified seven-on-seven practice drill — and the offense always wins when the other guys cannot touch anyone south of the scrimmage line.

For all of Baltimore’s stuttering, its rushing defense remains No. 1. If anyone can put a road spike in the Cowboys’ running game, it is Terrell Suggs and friends. Baltimore has surrendered 71.3 rushing yards per game, and only the 2000 Ravens, the Super Bowl champions, have done better in the franchise history logs.

Pick: Cowboys

Bills (4-5) at Bengals (3-5-1)

1 p.m. Line: Bengals by 2 ½

This is the sort of November game that separates the regular-season losers from the wild-card-round losers, which is to say Buffalo and Cincinnati are mud-wrestling for the right to play a 17th game and not much else.

The Bills must do to Bengals receiver A. J. Green what they did to Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald — stuff him into a 60-yard carton for the day. The best way to accomplish that is to hit quarterback Andy Dalton before he can throw the ball to a forever-open Green.

Steelers (4-5) at Browns (0-10)

1 p.m. Line: Steelers by 8

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 20-2 in his career against Cleveland, leaving us all demanding further evidence that those two losses did, in fact, happen.

The Browns cannot find an answer to any question worth asking. They threw three quarterbacks into the tire fire against Baltimore last week, and may as well have coaxed Bernie Kosar out of retirement. The path to 0-16 remains clear.

Pittsburgh has lost four straight games. That streak will be hard-pressed to survive the day, with wide receiver Antonio Brown ready for a fifth consecutive 100-yard receiving day against his namesakes.

Pick: Steelers

Jaguars (2-7) at Lions (5-4)

1 p.m. Line: Lions by 6 ½

All of Detroit’s games have been decided by a touchdown or less, forcing the first-teamers to earn all four quarters of their direct deposit. With three wins in their last four games, the Lions have joined the Vikings atop the N.F.C. North. To lose at home to Jacksonville now is to deserve an early tee time come January.

The Jaguars have lost three straight games in their annual quest for a top-five draft slot. When Coach Gus Bradley said, “I don’t see anything in the future that shows Blake Bortles is not our guy,” what did that tell you about Jacksonville’s future?

Pick: Lions

Titans (5-5) at Colts (4-5)

1 p.m. Line: Colts by 3

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans, who have taken 10 straight losses against Indianapolis, including a 34-26 kick to the thorax last month. So why worry?

Marcus Mariota, that’s why. He is the gilded arm behind an offense that has slapped 35-plus points on the board for three straight games, including a 47-25 pummeling of Green Bay last week. Only Tom Brady has had it better on the agate page.

Luck can match Mariota score for score. The Colts’ defense will be the tiebreaker if it can get the Mariota Turnover Factory up and running again. The Titans have won consecutive games just once since 2014, so they are due for a loss.

Buccaneers (4-5) at Chiefs (7-2)

1 p.m. Line: Chiefs by 7 ½

Arrowhead Stadium is not a safe place to visit, and it has nothing to do with the Chiefs’ winning 11 straight home games.

Kansas City is where opposing passer ratings go to die. The Chiefs’ secondary has a league-best 13 interceptions. The expected return of the Pro Bowl linebacker Justin Houston means that Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston has even less time to throw potential picks.

Winston’s best play may be handing the ball to running back Doug Martin, who returned last week from a hamstring injury. There will be no season-ending surge without Martin, who constituted 28 percent of the offense last year.

Pick: Chiefs

Cardinals (4-4-1) at Vikings (5-4)

1 p.m. Line: Vikings by 2

Because every four-game plunge needs a fall guy, the Vikings released kicker Blair Walsh, who missed four extra points.

Minnesota has not lost any games by a field goal or an extra point, so Walsh does not account for the Vikings’ rapid descent from Mount N.F.C. North. The larger blame goes to an offensive line with no sense of the direction north in its run-block push.

The Cardinals are coming off a win-lose-tie trifecta, which is no way to keep up with first-place Seattle.

Pick: Vikings

Bears (2-7) at Giants (6-3)

1 p.m. Line: Giants by 7 ½

The Giants have won four consecutive games — all by a touchdown or less — and are in prime catch-up position if the Cowboys fall down an elevator shaft in the second half.

Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. is playing hot again while keeping it cool, and his tag-team partner Victor Cruz is expected back after resting his ankle for a game.

It’s all bad news for the Bears. They just lost the Pro Bowl right guard Kyle Long to the injured-reserve list and receiver Alshon Jeffery to a four-week suspension for breaking the N.F.L. policy on performance-enhancing substances.

Pick: Giants

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Quarterback Jared Goff, the first overall pick in this year’s N.F.L. draft, will get his first start for the Rams, against the Dolphins.CreditTim Umphrey/Associated Press

Dolphins (5-4) at Rams (4-5)

4:05 p.m. Line: Dolphins by 1 ½

The Rams are 2-1 in games when they do not score a touchdown, and 2-4 in games when they do. Who can’t wait to see Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall draft pick this year, take that winning script and run with it?

Goff, the former Cal quarterback, is to make his N.F.L. debut after 10 weeks of the Case Keenum show. Goff’s initial plans are to survive a Dolphins defense that just caught four passes off the arm of the Chargers veteran Philip Rivers.

Miami will not catch New England, but four straight wins have the Dolphins ready for a late pass in the wild-card lane.

Pick: Dolphins

Patriots (7-2) at 49ers (1-8)

4:25 p.m. Line: Patriots by 13

Want to get Tom Brady’s mind off Deflategate? Ask the Patriots’ quarterback about the 49ers’ drafting quarterback Giovanni Carmazzi in 2000 — and not Brady, a Bay Area native.

“I have different things that have motivated me at different times,” Brady said during the week. “They obviously went in a different direction.”

That brings us to Sunday’s homecoming for Brady. The Patriots just dropped to 102-2 when leading at home in the fourth quarter. The 49ers have lost eight straight games, one short of the franchise record. Sixteen years later, expect the 49ers to continue going in a different direction from Brady.

Pick: Patriots

Eagles (5-4) at Seahawks (6-2-1)

4:25 p.m. Line: Seahawks by 6 ½

This Fight Club of a defensive game begs to be played at the demolished Veterans Stadium (1971-2004), where the artificial turf hit back, knuckles flew high and batteries flew far.

Think of the Seahawks projectile Earl Thomas denting the innards of Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski last week. Picture the Eagles’ defense bottling up Atlanta’s offense to a season-low 15 points on the same day.

First team to 20 wins.

Pick: Eagles

Packers (4-5) at Redskins (5-3-1)

8:30 p.m. Line: Redskins by 2 ½

Four teams made the playoffs last season after starting with 4-5 records. Twenty-five teams have overcome losing records through nine games to do the same since 1990.

If the Packers want to join that trend, this is a good time to clear their throat. Their defense stops no one, their run game goes nowhere, and four losses in five games have Coach Mike McCarthy feeling the Fahrenheit in the tundra.

Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins has parlayed his game-manager label into a 4-2 record against teams with winning records. He isn’t spectacular, but he can make an exception against a defense that has allowed 21 passes of 25 yards or more.

Pick: Packers

All times are Eastern. Picks do not reflect the betting line.

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page SP3 of the New York edition with the headline: After 8-1 Ride, Dallas’s Trail Turns Perilous. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe