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Back Indiana +16.5 With Your College Football Picks vs. Michigan State

The Michigan State Spartans could be in for a letdown spot when they host the Indiana Hoosiers. Can the Spartans beat the college football odds?

Indiana vs. Michigan State (-16.5)
Indiana travels to East Lansing to face Michigan State this week in what can only be termed this year’s biggest letdown game of the year. Based on the results of last week and recent history between these two, it would appear that the Spartans are in for a monumental letdown when they face the visiting Hoosiers this weekend.

When these two met last season in Bloomington, it was (56-17) Michigan St, as they outgained the Hoosiers 662-224. These teams have played 6 times in the last 8 years, during the Mark Dantonio era at East Lansing. Sparty is 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS in those games, putting series history firmly on the side of the Spartans. Those results, however, can only lead to the letdown scenario following last week’s results. For, how does Michigan St. get emotionally ready to play this contest after the events of last week?

Michigan State was caught sleepwalking through the first half of this year’s college football season. With a Top 10 rating and numerous accolades, it was clear that 9th year HC Dantonio was playing it close to the vest, saving a huge emotional reserve for the more important games on the Big 10 schedule. Granted, there was (what looked like at the time) a huge revenge win over Oregon on this field (31-28) September 12th. But against outmanned foes, W. Michigan, Air Force, C. Michigan, Purdue and Rutgers (all games in which they were favored by 16 or more points), Dantonio rarely went to the whip.

Last week, entering the huge rivalry game with Michigan, his Spartans were a predicted 6-0 SU, but somnambulant 0-6 ATS. Trailing 23-14 in the 2nd half, it was going to take 2 late scores against a Michigan defense, who had only allowed 14 total points in their previous 5 games for what seemed to be a miraculous Michigan St. victory. All seemed lost, when they trailed 23-20 in what appeared to be the final play of the game. But a Michigan botched snap from center and the ensuing Michigan St. fumble return for the TD, resulted in a most improbable Michigan St. (27-23) victory. It most certainly must rank as one of the Top 10 final plays in CFB annals. It can also only lead to a Major Letdown in a role where the Spartans have failed miserably all season.

Today’s opponent, Indiana, was going through its own torture test in its home game last week against Rutgers. Leading 52-27 at the start of the 4th quarter, it appeared that the Hoosiers had things well under control. But, Rutgers scored 28 consecutive points to close out the game resulting in an improbable (55-52) Indiana home loss and a typical 0-3 SU conference start, after previous losses to Ohio St. and Penn St. This is now starting to resemble a typical Indiana team, who is good hit but no field! Again last week, they posted 622 offensive yards but allowed Rutgers to gain 596 yards. In the 4 seasons under 5th year HC Wilson, the Spartans have allowed an average of 35 PPG and nearly 500 YPG. Yet, behind QB Sudfeld, this is an Indiana team that packs an offensive wallop. With last week’s outburst, they now average 37 PPG and 500 YPG. That type of offensive firepower is enough to allow the Hoosiers to do no worse than slip in the back door against a Michigan St. team, who has shown no propensity to blow out opponents this 2015 CFB season.