KOF Swiss Economic Institute conducts a wide range of surveys among Swiss firms. The survey results are of vital importance to our forecasts and research activities. If you would like to take part in the surveys, you may register here.

According to the most recent KOF Business Tendency Surveys, the economic outlook of Swiss businesses cooled significantly in February. The current results provide the first comprehensive indications regarding the new currency situation, since in January almost 94% of participants filled in the questionnaire before the exchange rate floor on the franc was removed. In all areas of the economy covered by the survey – manufacturing, retail trade, finance, construction and the architectural and engineering sector – the economic outlook deteriorated. The position worsened particularly for manufacturers.

In February 2015, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 6 points to a value of 90.1. After the indicator had fallen by close to 3 points in January 2015, following a stagnation phase in the autumn of 2014, the downward movement is now accelerating; and the present reading is clearly below the long term average. The 6 point drop is the strongest since 2011; but the present level is still higher than shortly before the introduction of the now abandoned one-sided peg of the franc to the euro.

Since the success of the Initiative against Mass Immigration (MII), there has been uncertainty over the framework within which the bilateral agreements may be pursued with the European Union. Against this backdrop, the KOF has carried out a new study in which it analyses the influence of the bilateral agreements on economic development in Switzerland over the last few years. The study focused in particular on the effect of the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons, which forms part of the Bilateral Agreements I.

The KOF has updated its December 2014 forecast in view of the "franc shock". It is expecting a slump in economic performance in the first six months of 2015. Unemployment is expected to rise, with prices falling further.