In his 3 starts this year, he is 3-0 to the over on his strikeout props with an average of 7 Ks per game.

Last year, Kershaw averaged 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings — the lowest mark of his career since his 2008 rookie season — but this year he’s rebounded to 9.5, which is comparable to the 9.8 mark he averaged for the decade prior (2009-18)

And he has a favorable matchup:

The projected Padres lineup has the slate’s fifth-highest average of 0.264 strikeouts per at-bat, and the Padres have the fifth-most strikeouts in the league at 9.63 per game.

On top of that, the Padres have the sixth-fewest runs per game at 3.72, and Kershaw has a slate-best 88 Park Factor at Petco Park, so there’s little reason to think he won’t be able to pitch deep into the contest.

Kershaw is very much the pitcher he’s always been with his 2.82 xFIP this season, and he’s gone seven full innings in two of his three starts and at least six innings in all of them.

Against the Padres, he should be able to go six-plus innings, and if he does, his chances to get seven-plus strikeouts against a team that whiffs at an above-average rate looks tempting

Umpire Jerry Meals has the splits to support a road team bet, along with a high-scoring game. The Athletics should oblige the over, as they have scored at least four runs in every game since April 18. Oakland has the second-best strikeout percentage in MLB at 19.4%.

-- The Reds are 16-0 SU as a 140+ favorite after a game in which they scored in at least four separate innings.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Angels are 0-37 SU as a dog of more than 135 off a game as a dog when their opponent's starter has a strike-per-ball ratio greater than 1.89 on the season and it is not the first game of a series.

Batter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Rockies are 12-0 SU as a home favorite after a game in which Trevor Story had multiple hits.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Astros are 16-0 SU when Justin Verlander starts on the road and he averaged more than 3.9 pitches per batter in his last start.

Rangers 11-3-1 in Last 15 at home
Cubs 6-0-1 in Last 7
Red Sox 7-0 in Last 7
Red Sox Under in 8 of Last 11 at home
Brewers Over in 10 of Last 12
Dodgers Over in 8 of Last 11 at home
Twins Over in 9 of Last 11
Blue Jays Over in 5 of Last 6
Tigers Under in 8 of Last 10 at home
Braves Under in 5 of Last 6