Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #282

The Week That Was: 2017-08-26 (August 26, 2017)

The Science and Environmental Policy Project

###################################################

Quote of the Week. “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” – Leo Tolstoy, 1894

###################################################

Number of the Week: 1,000,000 atomic bombs exploding per day

###################################################

THIS WEEK:

History of Climate Change: In the second edition of “Climate, History, and the Modern World”, climate change research pioneer H.H. Lamb expressed disappointment with the direction the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia was taking. Lamb had worked diligently to establish the unit to understand the causes of climate change, both warming and cooling, before any undue influence from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) could be found. Lamb feared a global cooling, and had studied abrupt climate change from changes in pollen and other proxy records. Lamb’s depiction of temperature change from proxy records in central England in the first report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) became an icon.

Unfortunately, the CRU and the IPCC became overwhelmed by the fashionable belief that CO2 will be a major cause of climate change. This belief appeared to be backed-up by the 1979 Charney Report published by the US National Academy of Sciences. Quickly forgotten, was that the Charney Report makes clear that the projections of significant change from CO2 were based on speculation from climate modelers – not established by physical evidence, hard data.

There were no comprehensive calculations of global temperatures available in 1979, although the collection of the necessary data by satellites had just begun. The technique of using the collected satellite data to estimate temperatures was published by Roy Spencer and John Christy in the early 1990s. Without comprehensive global atmospheric temperatures, there can be no calculation of the direct influence of CO2 on temperatures, the influence of which occurs in the atmosphere. Surface instrument data only records a possible secondary effect, and are extremely limited, largely land based, and confined to westernized locations.

Also, unfortunately, the IPCC’s promotion of Mr. Mann’s hockey-stick had a negative impact on the use of proxy data to understand climate history. The hockey-stick had several deficiencies, including improper mathematical manipulation, failure to properly calibrate instrument data with proxy data, and improper elimination of data that did not support the hypothesis, “cherry-picking.” In the west, even well-conducted proxy studies have a cloud.

Many western scientific societies have succumbed to political pressure from the IPCC and others; but, fortunately not all. The Chinese Academy of Sciences is to be congratulated for publishing a study of proxy data covering the past 2,000 years.

The proxy data are from tree rings, lake sediments, ice cores, stalagmites, corals and historical documents and show four distinct warm periods, epochs, over the past 2000 years. They show significant warming and cooling and changes in precipitation. There appears to be three distinct multi-year cycles. Generally, warm periods are associated with prosperous times. The current warm period is comparable to ones in 981 to 1100 AD and 1201 to 1270 AD. The current warm period is associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Cold periods were associated with sunspot minima. The difference between warm periods and cold periods is about 1.3°C (2.3°F). See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

***************************

New Technique? Using artificial neural networks (ANN), which are a form of machine learning (big data and artificial intelligence), Australians Jennifer Mahonhasy and John Abbot deconstructed 2000 years proxy data to reconstruct what temperatures may have been in the absence of human CO2 emissions. The proxy data they use include tree rings and coral cores. They state that the proxy records show cycles of warming and cooling within in a band of 2°C.

Interestingly, they date the Medieval Warm Period “from AD 986 when the Vikings settled southern Greenland, until 1234 when a particularly harsh winter took out the last of the olive trees growing in Germany” and the “end of the Little Ice Age as 1826, when Upernavik in northwest Greenland was again inhabitable – after a period of 592 years.”

Inhabited by Inuits, Upernavik is the northernmost town in Greenland with a population over 1,000 and the northernmost point in Greenland where Norse runic characters have been found, on a stone. Mahonhasy states “the modern inhabitation of Upernavik also corresponds with the beginning of the industrial age. For example, it was on 15 September 1830 that the first coal-fired train arrived in Liverpool from Manchester: which some claim as the beginning of the modern era of fast, long-distant, fossil-fuelled (sic) fired transport for the masses…So, the end of the Little Ice Age corresponds with the beginning of industrialization.” [local spelling]

They show a graph on the match between the ANN projections and the proxy temperatures from 1880 to 2000. Based on the analysis, they conclude that the influence of industrialization (CO2) emissions has been in the order of 0.2°C, not the approximately 1°C, claimed by the IPCC. It remains to be seen whether this technique holds up to independent analysis. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

***************************

Hurricane Harvey: The record breaking period of almost 12 years without a major hurricane, category 3 or above, hitting the US is over. Hurricane Harvey made landfall on the Texas coast, between Port Aransas and Port O’Connor (east of Corpus Christi) on Friday night. Harvey is a strong, slow-moving storm, Category 4 at landfall, and National Weather Service predicted a storm surge up to 9 to 13 feet (2.7 to 4 meters) and heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches (38 to 76 cm) with up to 40 inches (102 cm) in some locations

“The world has had a run of good luck when it comes to weather disasters. That will inevitably come to an end. Understanding loss potential in the context of inexorable global development and long-term climate patterns is hard enough. It is made even more difficult with the politicized overlay that often accompanies the climate issue.”

On August 9, the National Weather Service has upped its forecast for the season to 14 to 19 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 74 mph (33 m/s; 64 knots; 119 km/h) (Category 1), and 2 to 5 major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111-129 mph, (96-112 knots 178-208 km/h).

One of the reasons for the revised forecasts of more hurricanes is the absence of an El Niño, which inhibits the formation of hurricanes. The contrast between 2016 and 2017 is ironic. The two hottest years in the atmospheric record are 1998 and 2016, both strong El Niño years. The EPA, and other government groups, claim that CO2-caused warming endangers human health and welfare. Yet, El Niños, which are a cause of increases in temperatures, occur with global wind patterns that inhibit the formation of hurricanes, which are truly destructive. See links under Seeking a Common Ground and Changing Weather.

***************************

Changing Sea Levels: With Hurricane Harvey, no doubt we will see many more articles on the dangers of sea level rise, including government reports from NOAA and NASA claiming short-term trends are indicative of long-term trends. As stated in the May 13 TWTW, the recently deployed GRACE satellites may be calibrated incorrectly, attributing sea level rise to a presumed melting in the West Antarctic that may be more appropriately attributed to the melting of the great ice sheets covering much of the Northern Hemisphere.

Three recent studies cast further doubt on forecasts a significant increase in sea level rise; two for the Atlantic coast, and one for California. The Virginia Beach – Norfolk – Newport News area of Virginia may be one of the most vulnerable areas in the US to sea level rise. The Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has a population of 1.7 million and has a large military presence, large ice-free harbor, shipyards, coal piers, miles of waterfront property and beaches, and significant industries.

Frequently, warnings of CO2-caused climate change resulting in increased sea level rise appear in the local papers, prompting Roger Bezdek to study the problem. He states:

“At the Sewells Point tidal station in Norfolk, Virginia, rising sea levels have been recorded since 1927: Sea level at Sewells Point rose at an average rate of 4.4 mm/yr. from 1927 to 2006, with a 95 percent confidence interval of ±0.27 mm/yr”

“It is important to get the cause of local sea level rise correct. For governments to identify an incorrect cause becomes a colossal waste of time and money. Far too often “climate change” is thrown about as the cause, but is meaningless and wasteful.”

The measured increase of 17 inches (44 cm) per century is considerably greater than generally accepted rise of 7 to 8 inches (18-20 cm) per century world-wide. There are three local conditions that may result in this increase: groundwater extraction resulting in aquifer-system compaction, geological conditions from a past meteor impact, and tectonic effects from the past ice age. Bezdek considers the latter two insignificant, but considers the former a significant problem that has been known for over 40 years.

“The two areas where subsidence rates were the most rapid roughly coincide with groundwater pumping centers at Franklin and West Point. Measurements of land subsidence are currently made at Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) in the region. The National Geodetic Survey has computed velocities for three of these stations between 2006 and 2011 and found an average subsidence rate of 3.1 mm/yr (12 inches per century).

In Bezdek’s view, the primary problem of groundwater extraction and aquifer subsidence is solvable, as it was solved in the Houston-Galveston, Texas area.

Another study by Arnoldo Valle-Levinson, et al. of the Miami area finds:

“Tide gauge records reveal comparable short-lived, rapid SLR [Sea Level Rise] accelerations (hot spots) that have occurred repeatedly over ~1500 km stretches of the coastline during the past 95 years, with variable latitudinal position. Our analysis indicates that the cumulative (time-integrated) effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation determine the latitudinal position of these SLR hot spots, while a cumulative El Niño index is associated with their timing. The superposition of these two ocean-atmospheric processes accounts for 87% of the variance in the spatiotemporal pattern of intradecadal sea level oscillations.”]

Wind variance plays an important role in relative sea level rise, not CO2.

A study by Albert Parker and Clifford Ollier finds:

“that the sea level rises estimate by a local panel for California as well as the IPCC for the entire world are up to one order of magnitude larger than what is extrapolated from present sea level rise rates and accelerations based on tide gauge data sets.

“As the evidence from the measurements does not support the IPCC expectations or the even more alarming predictions by the local California panel, these claims and the subsequent analyses are too speculative and not suitable for rigorous use in planning or policy making.”

As stated in the NIPCC reports, to understand local sea level rise, one must examine local conditions, not regional or global models of what is speculated to happen. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC and Changing Seas.

***************************

Why have US CO2 Emissions Fallen? Writing in Energy Matters, Roger Andrews follows-up on a prior paper by him and another by Euan Mears trying to develop a better estimate on this important matter. Many analysts have offered simple answers to this question, based on one single factor, such as fracking, renewables, the recession, etc. These answers do not try to assess the relative importance of a multiple factors.

Using US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, Andrews finds that between 2007 and 2015, total annual US CO2 emissions decreased by 740 million tons (12%). Drilling deep into the EIA data he finds “that 35% of this decrease was caused by natural gas replacing coal in electricity generation, 30% by lower fuel consumption in the transportation sector, 28% by renewables replacing coal in electricity generation and 7% by other factors.” These estimates do not include the impact of the recession and as Andrews bluntly admits the estimates are speculative and cannot be easily confirmed.

Using his conversion factors of TWh for CO2 emitted by generation type, one can calculate that, in general, coal produces 2.55 times more CO2 per TWh generated than natural gas. [A Terawatt-hour (TWh), is a measure of electrical energy, 10 raised to the 12th power, watt-hours.]

Later, writing in the comments section, Andrews states:

“…the underlying purpose of this post was to obtain an estimate of how much of the recent reduction in US emissions could be attributed to renewables as opposed to ‘market’ forces. According to the results 28% can be attributed to renewables if we ignore the impacts of the 2008-9 recession, and arguably as little as 12% if we don’t. Either way this doesn’t represent much bang for the ~200 billion bucks the US has so far spent on developing renewable energy.” [Andrews lives in Mexico.]

See links under Energy Issues – US

***************************

Greenpeace and RICO: Prior to the last election, certain politicians suggested using the US Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) against individuals whose views they do not like and whom they call “climate deniers” and “anti-science.” The environmental industry did not make a loud outcry against such action.

Now the builders of the Dakota Access Pipeline have sued Greenpeace for $300 Million in damages citing RICO. Under RICO, the damages award would triple. Greenpeace US attorney Tom Wetterer said that the suit was “not designed to seek justice, but to silence free speech through expensive, time-consuming litigation. This has now become a pattern of harassment by corporate bullies.”

The same can be said about politicians who threatened to use RICO. Nonetheless, the issue of damage to pipeline property remains open, and government officials refused to maintain order during the protests. What recourse do private citizens and companies have in such circumstances? See links under Litigation Issues

***************************

Word Counting and Evidence: Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes, at the Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, performed a textual content analysis (word counting) of Exxon documents. In the abstract of their paper they state:

“This paper assesses whether ExxonMobil Corporation has in the past misled the general public about climate change. We present an empirical document-by-document textual content analysis and comparison of 187 climate change communications from ExxonMobil…” [Boldface added.]

Apparently, at Harvard word counting is now considered empirical evidence in science. SEPP is still waiting for the hard, empirical evidence that CO2 is the primary cause of global warming, as the IPCC and many government officials and academics have claimed. Content analysis does not suffice, especially from the IPCC.

But, what can one expect from a Harvard historian who so poorly represented the writings of Paul Samuelson, perhaps the most outstanding graduate of Harvard in economics, and the first US Nobel laureate in economics? For years, Samuelson advocated that the economy of the Soviet Union was comparable to that of the US because its military was comparable. In attacking others, Oreskes claimed that it was common knowledge that the Soviet military was weak and could not be sustained, because its economy was weak.

This could be a very instructive learning moment – don’t trust authorities in one subject, if they assert claims, with no hard evidence, in another subject. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy

***************************

Number of the Week: One million atomic bombs. Roy Spencer calculated that the energy released by a hurricane such as Harvey is more than 1,000,000 atomic bombs exploding per day, of energy dropped on Hiroshima. See link under Changing Weather

“The survey calculated the ‘social cost’ of renewables at Rs 11 per KWh which, it claimed, is three times that of the coal in 2017 and the gap would reduce only when the country progresses towards the year 2030.

“The government’s chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, while delivering Darbari Seth Memorial lecture on last Thursday, too spoke about this scenario when he noted that the coal continues to be “a very cheap way of providing energy to hundreds of millions who are still energy deprived.”

“The world has had a run of good luck when it comes to weather disasters. That will inevitably come to an end. Understanding loss potential in the context of inexorable global development and long-term climate patterns is hard enough. It is made even more difficult with the politicized overlay that often accompanies the climate issue.”

“While additional work is likely needed to further constrain the magnitude of the C pool responses to these global change drivers, it is encouraging to note the direction of the response, which clearly is positive and indicative of an overall enhancement of the terrestrial C sink. Thus, in the years and decades ahead, it should be expected that the terrestrial biosphere will continue to act as a break on the modern increase in atmospheric CO2, sequestering more and more C in its above- and below-ground pools and acting as a negative feedback to projected CO2-induced global warming.”

“In the words of the authors, although high pCO2 appeared to slow growth of the krill species (more particularly in the 10th and 90th quantiles of the size distribution), ‘a pCO2 level of 1200 µatm [(pH 7.6)] had no effect on either survival or moulting frequency.’ In fact, krill survival remained unaffected by ocean acidification until seawater pH values were lowered to 6.96, corresponding to a pCO2 of over 6,000 µatm.”

“One such site is found off the coast of Ischia Island, Italy, where volcanic vents releasing CO2 have formed two distinct zones of reduced pH (7.8 and 6.7), compared to the surrounding area where the pH value is around 8.1.

“Furthermore, they add that ‘the cellular signaling components and membrane receptors affected by elevated CO2/decreased pH seem to contribute towards growth, division and development of S. vulgare at the acidified site,” where the macroalga “looks healthy and flourishing.’”

Changing Weather

ECMWF at the heart of weather and climate modelling as global challenge of societal relevance with game changing prediction capability through exascale

[SEPP Comment: If one considers the grain production of areas previously within the USSR, the record tumbled long ago. For example, “Ukraine’s market year 2015-16 wheat harvest reached 27.2 million tonnes, the largest crop since independence in 1990, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reported on Jan 28.”]

“The study details how cheap natural gas, government regulations, weak power demand and increasing volumes of solar and wind power are challenging the economics of coal and nuclear plants.” (From the article)

[SEPP Comment: The article uses the “straw-man” argument. The study focuses on the reliability of natural gas.]

Gillis: “Friends of mine in Georgia plan to drive 70 miles to find the perfect spot on a South Carolina golf course to observe the solar eclipse. Many Americans will drive farther than that, or fly, to situate themselves in the ‘path of totality,’ the strip of the country where the moon is predicted to blot out the sun entirely.”

[SEPP Comment: This observer drove hundreds of miles to be on the “path of totality” only to see a dim sun, blocked by heavy overcast – even though the previous day weather forecasts were for a clear sky.]

Modern Astrology in NY Times: Justin Gillis says Eclipses show all Scientists are always right about everything

“Coal, natural gas, and nuclear power all feature the smallest, and nearly identical physical footprint, of about 12 acres per megawatt produced. Solar and wind are much more land intensive technologies using 43.5 and 70.6 acres per megawatt, respectively. Hydroelectricity generated by large dams has a significantly larger footprint than any other generation technology using 315.2 acres per megawatt.”

The Idea of Renewable Energy Is Reported to Have Originated with the Nazis; at Least They Were Wise Enough to Reject It

“But much of the rest of the US solar industry finds those figures far-fetched, and calls the tariff a terrible idea. See, manufacturing remains a small part of the US solar power industry. Most of the money—and work—lies in assembling panels into arrays and installing them for large corporate or industrial-scale clients (residential rooftop setups are small potatoes).”]

“In a 2-1 ruling, the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit found that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) did not properly analyze the climate impact from burning the natural gas that the project would deliver to power plants.”

“The average household is supplied with single phase electricity and is fitted with a main fuse of 60-80 amps,” the National Grid said.

“If one were to use an above average power charger, say 11kW, this would require 48 amps. When using such a charger it would mean that you could not use other high demand electrical items… without tripping the house’s main fuse.”

“The fleet of coal-fired power plants in the United States has an average efficiency of around 33%.

“New HELE plants [in China] can have an efficiency of around 45% HHV.”

Nuclear Energy and Fears

China pips US in race to start the world’s first meltdown-proof nuclear power plant

China has 20 nuclear power plants under construction, more than any other country on earth. With Sanmen, the industry is hoping to get the nod to build more reactors at home, and even export the AP1000 technology.

“None of this matters unless the system is efficient. Rail energy storage has about an 80 percent efficiency rate, meaning that the descending railroad cars can output 80 percent of the energy that was initially used to get them up that hill.

“That’s better than pumped-storage hydroelectricity, Kelly noted, which typically runs in the 60 percent range. Batteries can return a higher efficiency, but their capacity degrades over time.”

[SEPP Comment: It will be interesting to see if this technique becomes commercially deployable. Government reports indicate that large pumped-hydro storage has about 80% efficiency, not the 60% stated in the article.]

America’s first U.S.-built offshore wind installation vessel

A Texas company is building the nation’s first offshore wind-turbine installation vessel and designing it to fit through the New Bedford hurricane barrier.

“Conceivably, battery costs and performance will improve to the point where the additional cost will not be a significant barrier. But so far, the date when that will occur is wildly speculative and doesn’t appear to be near. Claims to the contrary appear to be based on a superficial understanding of hard numbers.”

[SEPP Comment: Comparing an EV with a gas engine is like comparing a horse with a model T, with the EV the horse?]

“As the country faces acute power shortage and the global warming debate hots up, energy conservationists caution against growing number of buildings with glass facades dotting the landscapes of cities as being responsible for energy consumption much in excess that a normal structure would do.

“If you see the structures that have come up recently, they are all mostly made with glass. Right from top to below, you can see huge shinning glass.

“Though these buildings look very contemporary and stylish, they are the biggest culprit when it comes to energy consumption, says Harsh Narang, director, Modern India Architects.

Glass building are a very European concept because they don’t get much of sunlight. Hence, their main aim is to get maximum sunlight. But, in our country where temperatures at times go as high as 50 degrees Celcius, these glasses take in more of sunlight.

“Hence, the offices use more air-conditioners directly resulting in higher consumption of electricity and also in the form of carbon-dioxide emission and also CFCs that air-conditioners generate causing damage to the ozone layer, he adds.

“According to a study conducted by Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, London, a complete glass building consumes four times more electricity than a normal building.”

Rediff India Abroad, 12 Jun 2007

###################################################

ARTICLES:

1. Cuomo’s Natural Gas Blockade

New York’s Governor is raising energy costs for millions of Americans.

“The U.S. shale boom has lowered energy prices and created hundreds of thousands of jobs across the country. But those living in upstate New York and New England have been left in the cold by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, whose shale gas blockade could instigate an energy crisis in the Northeast.

“Progressives once hailed natural gas as a “transition fuel” to renewables like solar and wind, but now they are waging a campaign to “keep it in the ground.” New York is ground zero. First, Mr. Cuomo banned hydraulic fracturing (i.e., fracking), and now he’s blocking natural gas pumped in other states from reaching Northeast markets.

The Empire State’s southern tier overlays the rich Marcellus and Utica Shale formations, among the most productive drilling regions in the country. Shale fracking has been an economic boon for Appalachia—and could have lifted upstate New York. Since 2010 natural gas production has surged 520% in West Virginia, 920% in Pennsylvania and 1880% in Ohio.

“Mr. Cuomo’s predecessor David Paterson imposed a moratorium on fracking in 2010. After winning re-election in 2014, Mr. Cuomo started laying the ground for a White House bid and made the ban permanent. Between 2010 and 2015, New York’s natural gas production plunged by half—which has translated into fewer jobs as well as less royalties for landowners and revenue for local governments.

“Last year the Governor compounded the economic damage by blocking the 120-mile Constitution pipeline transporting natural gas from Pennsylvania to upstate New York and New England. Although the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved the pipeline in 2014, Mr. Cuomo’s Department of Environmental Conservation conducted a separate review and denied a water-quality permit putatively because the developers hadn’t provided sufficient information.

“Constitution’s developers challenged the denial in federal court. While the Clean Water Act lets states perform their own environmental reviews, New York appears to have abused its discretion. Last week the Second Circuit Court of Appeals deferred to state regulators while leaving a door open for the pipeline companies to challenge the timeliness of the state review in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.

“While Constitution isn’t dead, environmentalists say the appellate-court decision will give New York and other states more latitude to block pipelines, which is no idle threat. Two major pipelines in the Northeast under development will need state approvals, and developers pulled two others in the past two years amid regulatory obstacles in New England.

“All of this is ominous since the region desperately needs more natural gas to make up for lost power from the impending shutdown of nuclear and coal plants. New England’s Independent System Operator projects that 14% of the region’s electric generation capacity will be retired within three years and says more pipelines are needed for grid stability.

The editorial discusses the premature closure of the Indian Point nuclear plant and that the governor has no back-up plant. Then it continues:

“Speaking of which, about a quarter of households in New York, 45% in Vermont and 65% in Maine still burn heating oil—which is a third more expensive than natural gas and produces about 30% more carbon emissions per million Btu. Yet many can’t switch due to insufficient natural gas and pipeline infrastructure.

“Mr. Cuomo’s natural gas blockade is harming residents and businesses throughout the Northeast while raising carbon emissions that he claims are imperiling the planet. The likely Democratic presidential aspirant may hope to ride this record to the White House, but millions of Americans are already paying a high price for his policies”

SUMMARY: Mr. Echols is a member of Georgia’s Public Service Commission. He writes:

“Georgia’s decision to continue building two new nuclear reactors—the only commercial ones now in development in the U.S.—means my state stands alone. Vermont’s Yankee plant went offline in 2014, and Massachusetts’ Pilgrim Station is scheduled to close in 2019. The company behind two half-finished reactors in South Carolina may abandon the project.

“Georgia has been down this road before. The first two reactors at the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant near Augusta were completed in 1987 and 1989, in the aftermath of the 1979 Three Mile Island accident. What was supposed to be a $1 billion project turned into an $8 billion one. Still, it was a great deal for ratepayers, delivering low-cost power for decades.

“Today, finishing the Vogtle plant’s two new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors is the right call—for their owners, including Southern Co. , as well as for Georgia and the U.S.

“Diversifying the energy supply makes sense, because no one knows what the future holds. The U.S. could institute a carbon tax, or even regulate frackers out of a job. No matter what happens, nuclear reactors will ensure Georgia’s electric rates stay competitive.

“They also will keep the U.S. from forfeiting its nuclear leadership. As other states have decommissioned reactors without replacing them, the world has begun looking to nations like China and Russia. The World Nuclear Association reports China is increasing its nuclear generation capacity 70% by 2021 and will surpass U.S. output by 2030. The only way for America to continue setting international standards for safety and security is to invest in reactors and technology.”

Mr Echols concludes with his firm commitment to the plant and the need for it.

Excellent posting, especially about the fiasco at the the East Anglia CRU – talk about discrediting science in pursuit of money and status. When the train finally wrecks I do hope the former graduates sue for their course fees and wasted time.

Re Leo Tolstoy: I have some simple explanations of why climate science as advertised is not a physical science with cause and effect, rather a fraud for a fast buck by politicians exploiting fearful ignorant hysteria of a poorly educated public with false propaganda. BUT – I also don’t believe mass opinion or politicians should be deciding the laws of physics or energy policy, or anything we can actually calculate the joined up consequences of. What value do they add? Science cannot be delivered as engineering by popular belief in a cosy delusion, however much money is spent on it. Anyway…

1. Money/Delusion doesn’t change the laws of physics. It can help prove them or confuse them.

2. Correlation is not causation = Statistical models are not deterministoc physical models/ They follow the method, but they prove no laws. (paraphrase Feynman on pseudo science)

3. The IPCC is a CO2 Lynch mob. IPCCO2.

4. They don’t want the truth to get before the public. Beacuse no real science is settled. Any denial is of pseudo science on the science fact of the supposed snake oil fixes for easy profit and academic grants.

5. The truth, represented by science facts we know, is the first victim of the CO2 = renewable energy fraud..

6. Renewable energy is a simple old-time climate change protection racket. State organised crime that enriches bought politicians as a reward for legalising the climate change energy extortion racket of their lobbyist clients.

9. Measured change, now and in historical record, from whatever cause, is way too small and slow to justify any measures to reduce CO2, And NOT accelerating

10. In particular, CO2 increase does not justify heavily subsidised energy , claimedby politicians to reduce the problem, that must make inet CO2 emissions from the grid worse rather than better – ON THE SCIENCE FACTS (of enrgy physoics and engineering). No belief required.

11. Plants ate all the 95% atmospheric volcanic O2 to get started and kept it below 0.2%, at the optimum for the carbon and water cycle maintained life, us, for 1 Billion years – through major climate disasters and real mass extnctions. Why would they suddenly be unable to cope with an extra 100ppm in 400ppm, as climate “science” assumes, and was then proved wrong, unsurprisingly.?

12. CO2 is innocent, in fact more is probably good, more plants, more prosperity, minimal real climate impact. There are other effects the fiscally partial climate so called science industry have de-emphasised in their models, biased as they clearly are to support the anti-industrialisation dogma of environmentalists (see 11). But the IPCC doesn’t support funding to prove anything else responsible.

13. Exposing climate change by CO2 as a clear raud exploited to justify measures that make insiders rich and CO2/unit enrgy worse is actually not hard or complex to set out, even for lay people. IF you can support it with data and science fact is simple but requires some basic numerical and scientific competence, to High School level.

Not IMO. Provable fact supported by real engineering, science fact and the real laws of physics. Debateable on prime time TV with the transparent liars for their fraud like Al Gore, Bill Nye, etc.

I blame real scientists and a lazy minded easy to manipulate public, though. Perhaps electing the less than savoury Donald was an expression of disbelief by the technically unknowing in the cloak of deceitful pseudo science propaganda that all these money making snake oil climate scams are concealed behind. Tgis includes the subsidy dependent solar PV (not water heating) industry and Tesla, of course

“Scientific method has met the methods of National Socialism, JIhad and the Inquisition, this time wielding the weapons of funding and job security, and lost.” Too soon?

G7, and likewise the sine representations have maxima of comparable size at AD 0, 1000, and 2000. We note that the temperature increase of the late 19th and 20th century is represented by the harmonic temperature representation, and thus is of pure multiperiodic nature. It can be expected that the periodicity of G7, lasting 2000 years so far, will persist also for the foreseeable future. It predicts a temperature drop from present to AD 2050, a slight rise from 2050 to 2130, and a further drop from AD 2130 to 2200 (see Fig. 3), upper panel, green and red curves).

As a main result of our study, the construction of a global record G7 from numerous temperature proxies reduces noise and thus allows the isolation of these global cycles. The dominance of the significant frequency components in the G7 spectrum, as opposed to the strength of other components in the spectra of the individual proxy records supports this view.

We provide a new confirmation for the link between solar activity and climate cycles by wavelet analysis showing a remarkably good agreement of the power of the ~190 – year period for temperatures and solar activity over 9000 years (see Fig. 4 lower panel). As (Fig. 2 and Table 2) show, the periods of ~1000 and ~460 years are also apparently common in records of temperatures and cosmogenic nuclides.

Note that their Figure 3 graph (red line) is very similar to Jennifer Marohasy’s.