I think it more likely that one killer was blocked, but can't be certain.

I see no reason not to disclose what my gift did now: it gave me a one-shot cop ability that had to be used last night. I used it on Gopher, and got a Town result on him. I targeted him because he was one of my scummiest remaining reads from D1, and seemed to be attracting a lot of heat D2. Unless the gift giver particularly wants me to disclose more details about what the gift looks like, I don't think there's anything more to say on the matter.

I might have more information to disclose as well, but I want to have everyone else post any claims.

So you know when you are certain someone is going to flip scum and you know it's really unlikely that anything else would happen .... but then they flip town. I hate that. Did anyone receive results last night in the same form as moody's?

Sabrar wrote:EBWOP: why did scum kill moody? that leaves adnapemit as clear lynch-target (though she would have been probably the next one anyway). Unless we really have SK and scum's kill was blocked?

Or the results are false and mafia knows that I would be the next to be lynched........But I would most likely to have been the next to be lynched anyway.... But since I would also flip town I also don't understand why they killed moody now. Maybe when the result are found to be false after my lynch then they thought they would not be able to paint moody as scum and then everyone would try to lynch whoever claimed the results?

I do have a very important question for bessie. Did you get any results night one?

Moody got his result from someone else, which means he probably did not get much from his own power. Which means I'm slightly less inclined to trust the result he got. It managed to make us mislynch, after all. At this stage, I wouldn't trust anyone who said they sent him the result.

So, either a successful roleblock / doctor happened last night, or one of the kills N1 was a conditional one, maybe one-shot.

moody7277 wrote:--I received an interesting present last night, which a little birdie tells me may or may not have been meant for me.

This clearly refers to SirGabriel (I assume moody would disregard anything kalira would say).Scenario 1: SirGabriel randomly redirected 1 person. Bit unlikely, as that would need SirGabriel choosing the exact player who sent the gift and the rng to choose moody.Scenario 2: SirGabriel switched moody with someone else. Then the message was clearly not intended for moody (unless SirGabriel was roleblocked/redirected himself). Also this could explain kalira's death (though it's unlikely that SirG switched those two as he had both of them as slightly townie in his list).

Gopher of Pern wrote:Which means I'm slightly less inclined to trust the result he got. It managed to make us mislynch, after all.

Seriously? There is a clear possibility that moody's result is accurate but because we chose the wrong person at first you would immediately discard it? I know jimbob has a Cop-result on you but that is way too suspicious.Will need to think about SDK a bit.

Sabrar wrote:Yeah, if you flip Town then it makes no sense for Mafia to kill moody. So I think we're good.

I know you are alluding that I am scum but there are still holes in the logic. I know I am probably going to end up lynched today but that's not going to stop me trying to help find the rest of scum today.

After thinking about it for a little bit maybe moody was killed for one of the normal reason players get killed which is their reads.

As to last night I will make a claim later as to part of my abilities which might explain no second kill after a few more people have posted especially bessie.

moody7277 wrote:--I received an interesting present last night, which a little birdie tells me may or may not have been meant for me.

This clearly refers to SirGabriel (I assume moody would disregard anything kalira would say).Scenario 1: SirGabriel randomly redirected 1 person. Bit unlikely, as that would need SirGabriel choosing the exact player who sent the gift and the rng to choose moody.Scenario 2: SirGabriel switched moody with someone else. Then the message was clearly not intended for moody (unless SirGabriel was roleblocked/redirected himself). Also this could explain kalira's death (though it's unlikely that SirG switched those two as he had both of them as slightly townie in his list).

Gopher of Pern wrote:Which means I'm slightly less inclined to trust the result he got. It managed to make us mislynch, after all.

Seriously? There is a clear possibility that moody's result is accurate but because we chose the wrong person at first you would immediately discard it? I know jimbob has a Cop-result on you but that is way too suspicious.Will need to think about SDK a bit.

We still do not know who sent the result to moody. All we know is that SirGabriel probably redirected it. I'm not saying we should discard the result entirely, but we should look at other avenues of investigation first, and get corroborating evidence before we commit to a lynch.

Unless moody somehow breadcrumbed it, we do not know who SirGabriel punched in the head. I would say Scenario 1 is more likely from moody's wording.

Colour me confused, then. If jimbob is to be trusted, then both of my biggest scum reads have been exonerated. If one of emlightened or moody had flipped scum, then I would understand. As it stands...nothing makes sense, unless maybe, as jimbob and Sabrar said, scum was blocked and last night's kill was an SK. There's a further possibility of there having only been two scum in the first place, I guess, but I struggle to believe that. Even though the two scum had strong powers, it would still be too unbalanced I think to have only two scum.

I have nothing to claim from the night.

So, sadly, I don't know if there's much to be gained from yesterday's votes either - I think for any town player, emlightened was a clear choice for a lynch, given adnapemit's play and moody's claim. Allow me to provide another apology, and some proper reads from D2 start to now:

Sabrar: I like his analysis early on D2, the logic looks very very good to me and looking at the state of the game at that point, I'm comfortable that his conclusions are justified. I think scum would need to work very hard to come up with fake reasoning that convincing. He did spend quite a long time interacting exclusively with GoP, which is...interesting? but as I read further I see that perhaps it's just that he picked up on one thing at a time and pushed it until satisfied, as he spends a while on emlightened and jimbob too. I'll be very surprised if he is not town.

DJ has had exactly two posts since the start of D2, and both of them were apologies for being busy. I hope we get a replacement for him instead of a modkill, and that's all I can say. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (pls also come back and finish modding MMM kthxbai)

jimbob: Claimed not to be responsible for kalira's death, and also "wouldn't put it as impossible" that mafia controlled both kills. In his next post, though, he puts it as likely we're looking for an SK. There's not a lot besides, content-wise, although I'm one to talk I guess. I don't see any obvious reason to doubt that he is claiming the cop result he got from his gift. He's hard to pin down, looks like he could be town with little time on his hands or maybe some sort of indie? Probably not scum, I guess. @jimbob - your post today makes it seem as though you think an SK is pretty much a certainty, even in light of there only being one kill last night. Is this the case, and why?

GoP: Most of his posting has been responding to other people's questions. No real reads on D2 to speak of (I know, pot kettle), and a vote on emlightened which has no more explanation given than the one on D1 - the problem here isn't so much the vote on emlightened as the way he's not giving any reasons. If it weren't for moody's result and for jimbob's, I would 100% be voting him in this post.

actually, from GoP's most recent post:

Gopher of Pern wrote:↶Unless moody somehow breadcrumbed it, we do not know who SirGabriel punched in the head. I would say Scenario 1 is more likely from moody's wording.

Was this deliberate, a slip, or a misremembering of SirG's role PM? I went back to double-check, and we don't even know which of SirG's powers he used in the first place, so we don't know whether he did punch someone in the head at all.

SDK hasn't had much actually since the start of D2. I have less of the rushed feeling from him, and he's been asking some okay questions, which is good. His sudden jump to bessie being SK was interesting, but I guess I can see the reasoning behind it. @SDK, are me and GoP still your prime scum reads? Does jimbob's claim change your view on SDK or on jimbob at all? Less scummy than before but, much like GoP, I don't like his defence of lying town and I'd like more information on the thoughts behind his reads. Neutral.

adnapemit: I have been getting pretty good townie feels from her posts, which brings me a lot of conflicted feelings in light of moody's claimed result. Given all the information we have, it makes sense to lynch her today, but I don't understand how she can be anything other than town. Her content did drop a little D2, but I mean she gave real life reasoning and still managed a post of reads with reasoning so I struggle to view her in a scummy light. IDK.

bessie has been asking many questions, but I don't see any reads from her really on D2 (please correct if wrong). A lot of her play seems to have been just being contrary to what other people say. She seems to have some sort of axe to grind with me referring to lynching policies like lynch all lurkers and so forth (cf. her "third on the wagon" comment and her asking if I want to lynch DJ). I felt really strongly yesterday that her poking people and so forth made her likely town, but that opinion is fading with time (I'm getting less sure of everything with time!) and with more re-reads. I guess maybe like third- or fourth-most likely to be scum.

matt96 only had one post worth comment, and looking at it I see a whole bunch that could be scummy but could be me looking for it to be scummy - other eyes would be appreciated:

emlightened- given RR's flip, I would not be surprised if emlightened is also scum, having tried to redirect the wagon twice yesterday, and I'm not sure if I'm willing to believe the claim of dying if targeted too much, could be a trap for a mass PGO or something. I do find it a bit odd that the first posted reads list was only up to page 2, when the more substantive discussion didn't start until there, but I can see how some people might prefer to look over everything in the order it was posted instead of person by person. No problems with lynching.

Anybody could have seen emlightened's lynch coming, so it's a safe place for scum to put a vote without drawing too much suspicion if she flips town (everyone else was doing it!)

moody- I'm viewing moody much more positively today, partly due to the number of dead scum, partly due to sharing the information despite plausibility of some power changing its recipient from the point of view of the gift giver, putting both together means almost no chance of being mafia from my point of view.

The more people find moody towny, the more people will be willing to trust his results, which could come in handy for pushing a few wagons. If moody could somehow be confirmed as town, so much the better!

adnapemit- harder to read, pinging me much less than in the recent vanilla game, would guess town based on numbers and emlightened looking scummier.

A very vague statement - "hard to read" leaves room for a shift in opinion later, and "based on emlightened looking scummier" leaves room for "well now that emlightened has flipped town I guess adnapemit is looking scummier overall compared to the remaining players)

GoP- I can see that he is being rather defensive, but there isn't really much benefit to most people in letting themselves get lynched, I think it would be fine to consider his actions so far scummy, but the high number of scum deaths so far is enough for me to call him town so far.

I don't understand this - it's fine to call his actions scummy but he's town? This could be a safe way to push back a lynch on a scum mate, but that would require there having been four scum, which I still doubt.

I would like to hear more from Jimbob about today's present tommorow.

Finally, is this role-fishing in an indirect way?

I hit preview and looked back at that last section on matt, and I feel like I'm probably tunneling. I guess I'm just grabbing on so hard because it makes sense and not much else is at the moment.

Thinking out loud: before we submitted our roles we already knew that claiming those would be prohibited. Individually for each of us the odds were to get assigned Town, so I would think that it is unlikely that anyone submitted a role that would deliberately screw with investigation results or contain some other form of bastardry as it would most probably hinder that player as well while he is unable to reveal it. Anyone disagree?So currently I'm more inclined to trust investigation results that are unorthodox (like moody's list) than standard Cop/Tracker-results where Madge could have more easily introduced a Godfather/Ninja/etc for balance reasons.

I think I was a little hasty with some of my conclusions earlier. I don't have any particular evidence indicating for certain that moody's result was accurate. I'm inclined to agree with Sabrar's thoughts in his most recent posts.

My result could be fake, but it doesn't seem likely to me partly because I am fairly confident I know who the gift giver is and they are among my townier reads. Godfather!Gopher could also be a possibility but based on the apparent lack of large numbers of investigative powers (source: no such flips and very few claims so far), I don't think Madge would have added it for balance.

@Carlington - I assume you mean only two mafia, not two scum?

I'm not certain about an SK, but I think it is possible. My earlier comment was more in relation to Sabrar's last statement that got me thinking along those lines.

I just want to let people know that DJ has 24 hours from the time of this post to contribute to the discussion (or come up with a very good reason why he can still contribute D3, but not within 24 hours).

We do not have a replacement yet. If no replacement is found, he will be modkilled.

As everybody is waiting for everyone else before they claim, I'll join the queue. I would like to hear from people in approximately the following order (hopefully convenient for timezone purposes as well):

- Gopher of Pern: please let us know if you have any kind of night result to share. And to satisfy my curiosity please state whether you have any concrete knowledge of adnapemit's alignment.- adnapemit: please claim the part of your ability that would explain the lack of second kill. Please also reply why you asked that specific question from bessie today? I think that it would be great if you would fully claim but I could understand if you're not willing to.- jimbobmacdoodle: please claim whatever information you have in addition to the Cop result.- SDK: please explain the turkey and why it is important.

@matt96: it's been a day since the beginning of D3. Do you have anything to share with us?

I'll explain later on as to why I want this after people have done so, but could everyone please place a vote for the living player immediately above them and leave it on until a mod confirms it via the votals. Feel free to unvote afterwards. It's related to my power.

Before I claim further, I want matt to claim anything he has from last night. If he takes too long, I'll likely end up voting for him.

I did not receive turkey again last night.

I think it might be possible to tease out likelihoods of mafia killing moody versus SK, but I don't have time now. Moody was probably killed either because scum feared more results from him and/or they wanted to frame adnapemit (possibly because she is another scum faction).

I'm very undecided whether to trust jimbob. I can imagine quite a few roles that could cause havoc with this voting, but there could be legitimate reasons as well. Conveniently with this pattern jimbob would likely be the only one who is not voted for, not sure if that's significant.Ultimately I don't think anybody submitted a role that causes e.g. mass kills on the players who are leading the votals so if others agree to do this I will as well.

Sabrar wrote:I'm very undecided whether to trust jimbob. I can imagine quite a few roles that could cause havoc with this voting, but there could be legitimate reasons as well. Conveniently with this pattern jimbob would likely be the only one who is not voted for, not sure if that's significant.Ultimately I don't think anybody submitted a role that causes e.g. mass kills on the players who are leading the votals so if others agree to do this I will as well.

Preview-ninja: will react later.

I didn't look at the list, so I'm happy to reverse the order, or for you to target me Sabrar or whatever. I just wanted some easy way of making sure that nobody was voted for more than once to reduce the risk of scum somehow jumping on a bandwagon that wasn't intended as such (or similar). The only thing I'm interested in is seeing how everybody's votes affect the votals today, so I'm open to other suggestions for this.

@Gopher - that sounds incredibly powerful. Did you see anybody visit more than one person?

adnapemit wrote:I do have a very important question for bessie. Did you get any results night one?

I don’t have an investigative power.

Not quite why I asked. I targeted you night one which should have showed you the actions of someone else. It appears it might have been unsuccessful then. I would expect others to have claimed if they did but did anyone else receive it instead?

Now you’ve heard from me; are you going to wait for matt and DJ? You will probably be waiting a long time. Matt likes to post the bulk of his analysis one hour before deadline.

Nope. That will do.I also had the ability to be immune to night actions. This one I used last night. There could be other reasons why there was one less death than night one but it might be useful to know.

Sabrar wrote:

adnapemit wrote:I do have a very important question for bessie. Did you get any results night one?

Why didn't you ask this D2?

I didn't feel like it was necessary for me to claim any abilities yesterday. The person targeted isn't informed it was me that targeted them and I thought this could be useful if I remained anonymous later in the game. I also expected her to post if she received anything useful but with no mention of it, it seemed that I should mention it.

SDK wrote:Did anyone get turkey last night? This is important.

Nope.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I saw you Sabrar. I saw DJ. I saw matt. I saw SDK. I saw bessie. I saw adnapemit. It was a busy night.

You can say mine now since I just claimed what I did. I would be very interested in knowing if this was not what you saw.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Yes, Carlington, I saw you visit moody. SHAME!

Ok. Will need to think about this a lot.But since jimbob asked for votes:Vote: Carlington

GoP: gun to my head, no you or adnapemit, I'd vote bessie who I already said was my third or fourth scummiest.I targeted moody last night, so your claim is correct regarding me at least. I can provide more information about this if it's going to be useful, but for the time being I'll say that nothing came of my power use last night, nor the night before.

Sabrar wrote:@jimbobmacdoodle: Gopher of Pern said that he saw you target multiple players. Didn't you notice?

Sorry, you're quite right, I missed that when I was reading through his post. Given that, I'm inclined to trust that he has the ability he claims, though we should of course not go blithely into assuming that Carlington did kill moody (I'm assuming nobody else targeted him though) any more than we assume that adnapemit is scum.

@Gopher - do your results show the target before or after redirection, if it occurred? What about roleblocking - does it show up if a player tried to use an ability but was blocked?

Sabrar wrote:EBWOP:

@jimbob, SDK: any flavor justification on why eating a turkey gives you Cop-ability?

Apparently it was laced with cocaine :/ I have no idea why. The flavour referenced suggests that it gave Sherlock Holmes like investigatory powers, who apparently took it as well. Of course, that suggests to me that the result might not be trusted, but I assumed that the giver knew whether the results are trustworthy or not, hence my earlier comment.

I have been told by Madge that attempts to replace me have been unsuccessful, and that things are not looking good for me if I continue to be inactive (I am immensely sorry. So busy, so busy).

That being said, I don't want town to lose a player due to my general incompetence. So I will try to be somewhat active today and save my skin.

If you want to make it easy for me:

If you have any questions from me you want answered, or any specific thing on which you want my opinion, feel free to ask me. I may be able to better respond to more concise, direct requests than just attempting to openly comment on the events of the past two days in general. I will try to get back to any questions or requests for comments I'm given in a concise and timely manner.

Also, if you quote me, it will show up in my notifications box, which will further ping me to come here and be active.

Djehutynakht wrote:If you have any questions from me you want answered, or any specific thing on which you want my opinion, feel free to ask me. I may be able to better respond to more concise, direct requests than just attempting to openly comment on the events of the past two days in general. I will try to get back to any questions or requests for comments I'm given in a concise and timely manner.

Let's start with an easy couple:

Please vote for me as discussed in my post further up. Unvote after the next mod votals show up with your vote.

Do you have any night action results to claim? You may want to wait for Gopher to claim further though as noted by Sabrar in his most recent post, though if so I'd make that explicit if you're happy for him to reveal your target before you claim.

Djehutynakht wrote:If you have any questions from me you want answered

1. Did you submit any night actions for N1?2. Same for N2?3. Do you have any other type of result that you wish to share?4. Do you think that Gopher of Pern's claimed ability (to see who everyone targeted during the night) is a reasonable power to be submitted and not be discarded by the mod?5. How many independents do you expect to be in the game?