Fantasy Football Mailbag: Thursday 11/17/16

Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.

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With the New Orleans Saints, your big concern is the distribution of targets. Drew Brees is a master at spreading the ball out, meaning a receiver could be left out to dry if it's just not his week. That hasn't been an issue for Snead, though. He has at least 7 targets in every game he has been healthy this year, and he has a 22.0% target market share since their bye. He's sneakily reliable in a high-powered offense that could be throwing a ton in this game.

The Saints enter the game as three-point underdogs to the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are 15th against the pass and 7th against the rush, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, further incentivizing an aerial attack. Given Snead's role in the offense, that's enough to warrant plugging him in.

As mentioned above, Snead's a guy we should be locking in with a decent amount of confidence. The game script that we touched on would hurt Mark Ingram quite a bit, and his 43.1% snap rate last week isn't overly appealing. Rob Kelley doesn't have those concerns, so he'd be the second guy in this scenario.

In the two weeks that he has been the starter, Kelley has played 47.3% and 66.7% of the snaps, respectively. That first snap rate is a little bit scary, but Kelley still managed to tote the rock 21 times. He also checks at least some of the boxes here that Ingram does not.

Kelley is at home and a 2.5-point favorite. His matchup is tough with the Green Bay Packers ranking third against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics, but that's a disadvantage that Ingram shares. With all the other factors working in Kelley's favor, he's the guy we want here.

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