The office aroused intense public debate when it was established. Accordingly, the first seminar focused on why religious freedom matters in the current international environment.

Guest speakers included Tony Blair, former U.K. prime minister, patron of the Tony Blair Faith Foundation and current Quartet representative to the Middle East; Brian J. Grim, Senior Researcher, Pew Research Center; Katrina Lantos Swett, Vice Chair of the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom; and Father Raymond de Souza.

Attending the event were diplomats from more than a dozen nations as well as numerous representatives from the Canadian government and various faith communities.

(1) We live in a world where more than eight-in-ten people follow a religion. And among the 16% who don’t, many of them have some religious beliefs or engage in some religious practices. Because most people have some attachment to religion, it’s important to look at how free people are to make personal decisions about their religion, changing their religion, or having no religion at all.

Pew Research Center

But religious freedom is very difficult to measure because. How can you measure how free someone is? So, as a social scientist, I measure the inverse. I measure restrictions on religious freedom coming from governments and from groups in society.

(2) The findings of my study at the Pew Research Center show that 40% of the world’s countries have high or very high restrictions on religion, but because several of these countries are very populous, about three-quarters (74%) of the world’s population – totaling 5.1 billion people – live with high restrictions.

This study measures 20 different types of government restrictions on religion, and adds them up into a Government Restrictions Index. The more restrictions and the greater their severity, the higher the score. (3) Based on this index, the study finds that almost two-thirds of people live in countries with high or very high government restrictions. Government restrictions include:

(4) restrictions on the wearing of religious symbols occur in more than a quarter of all countries. For instance, the European Court of Human Rights recently found that British law does not adequately protect an employee’s right to display religious symbols in the workplace – such as wearing a cross.

(5) imprisonments occur in nearly a third of all countries. In Burma, for instance, Buddhist monks continue to languish in prison cells for their role as clergy in promoting human rights and democracy.

(6) restrictions on converting from one religion to another occur in about a quarter of countries. For example, five of India’s 28 states have anti-conversions laws. In practice, these laws are used to prevent Hindus from converting to Islam or Christianity. And when conversions occur, they are sometimes met with hostilities. In a moment, I will talk more about the association of religious restrictions and hostilities.

This study measures 13 different types of social hostilities involving religion, and adds them up into a Social Hostilities Index. The more hostilities and the greater their severity, the higher the score. (7) Based on this index, the study finds that half the world’s people live in countries with high or very high social hostilities related to religion. These include:

(8) sectarian violence occurs in 17% of countries – that’s more than one-out-of-every-seven countries worldwide. In Iraq, for instance, even though the civil war ended years ago, acts of sectarian violence continue to occur on an almost daily basis.

(9) religion-related terrorists are active in more than a third of countries worldwide, including recently in France, where a Rabbi and several Jewish school children were gunned down in a brazen act of terror.

(10) the use of violence to enforce religious norms occurs in a third of countries worldwide. For instance, in Indonesia – where religious belief is required by law – Alexander An was attacked by angry mobs after he declared his non-belief on an Atheist website. And, when police showed up to intervene, rather than arresting the mob, Alexander was arrested on charges of blasphemy. Again, another example of the association between government restrictions and social hostilities.

A Pew Research Center study indicates the latest violence is part of a rising trend in recent years.

Amateur video captures bomb blast (AP Photo/Rossia TV channel)

A woman from the restive Dagestan province was behind Monday's bus bombing in the in the southern Russian city of Volgograd which killed herself and at least six other people and injured more than 30. The Moscow Times reports that this is the deadliest attack outside of the North Caucasus region since the bombing of Domodedovo Airport in January 2011, when 37 people were killed.

Alexei Malashenko, a North Caucasus researcher at the Moscow Carnegie Center think tank, warned that it could be the first in a series of attacks ahead of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. “I am very worried, but I believe this is the first bell before the Olympics. We should expect more attacks,” said Malashenko according to the Moscow Times.

The Los Angeles Times reports that It was the latest instance of violence from the Caucasus, fueled by nationalism and Islamic extremism, spilling over into other parts of Russia.

This latest event follows ethnic violence in Moscow earlier this month. The Wall Street Journal reports that police temporarily detained more than a thousand migrant workers to calm tensions following a riot triggered by the killing of a Russian man that residents blamed on a migrant from the predominantly Muslim Caucasus region.

The number of Muslims in Moscow may be as high as three million, according to ITAR-TASS, making Moscow's Muslim population the largest of any city in Europe. The growing numbers are served by only four mosques. The mayor of Moscow has prohibited further mosque constructions, arguing that most of the Muslims are temporary residents, also according to ITAR-TASS.

A recent Pew Research study finds that social hostilities involving religion in Russia such as these have been rising in recent years, predominantly driven by tensions emanating from the Caucasus. Religious hostilities have been rising in Europe as a whole, including increasing by more than twofold in Russia between mid-2006 and the end of 2011, as shown in the chart below.

Current events in China and India highlight the religious challenges besetting the two Asian giants. Police in China's western Xinjiang region are cracking down on Muslims who promote jihad online as part of a nationwide clampdown on the internet. Reuters reports, however, activists claim the move is to quell criticism of harsh government policies. And the Times of India reports that the government has documented 479 incidents of sectarian violence this year alone, which has left 107 dead and 1,647 injured, including 794 Hindus, 703 Muslims and 200 police. Activists claim the situation is far worse than captured by the official statistics.

On October 17-18, scholars and politicians will convene a roundtable in Trento, Italy, to discuss the differing dynamics of religion-state configurations around the world, including those in India and China.*

China's central control extends not only to its Muslim regions, but to Tibet and into the affairs of virtually every religious group in the country. This includes forbidding cross-national relationships that are routine elsewhere, such as not allowing the Catholic hierarchy to be obedient to Rome. In India, by contrast, different dynamics are at play. Despite allowing religious groups to have substantial control over their own affairs - including having their own personal status laws - India's center is often hard pressed to adequately address religious tensions that erupt into violence.

Here are three important things to understand about the religious situation in each of Asia's two giants.**

1. China is more religious than you might think

It's true, according to Pew Research, that the majority of China's population (52%) is unaffiliated with any particular religion. But this does not mean that they are religiously inactive. For example, belief in God or a higher power is shared by 7% of Chinese unaffiliated adults and 44% of unaffiliated adults say they have worshiped at a graveside or tomb in the past year, according to a 2007 Spiritual Life Study of Chinese Residents survey.More surprising to some is that nearly 300 million Chinese are affiliated with folk religions. Globally this means that more than seven-in-ten (73%) of the world’s folk religionists live in China. China not only leads the world in the number of folk religionists, but also in the number of Buddhists. Some 244 million people in China adhere to Buddhism, making China home to half (50%) of the world’s 488 million Buddhists.

Moreover, China's 68 million Christians make China home to the world’s seventh-largest Christian population. China's approximately 25 million Muslims constitute the world's 17th largest Muslim population, right after Saudi Arabia (# 16) and before Yemen (#18).

And China has the world's second largest shares of people who belong to faiths in the “other religion” category (16%), many of whom are adherents of Taoism. The World Religion Database estimates there are more than 8 million Taoists worldwide.

2. Chinese government restrictions on religion predominate

Although there is wide variation in the implementation of regulations on religion across the country, from mid-2007 until the end of 2011 Pew Research indicates that government restrictions on religion in the country have continued to remain at a very high level.In China, religion is heavily monitored and regulated by central government agencies, most extensively by the State Administration for Religious Affairs (SARA). Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members, who make up a vast majority of public office holders, are required to be atheists.

The government’s heavy regulation of religion has led to three distinct religious markets: state sanctioned religious organizations, underground (banned) religious groups, and religious groups with “ambiguous legal status.”

The five state-sanctioned “patriotic religious associations” are Buddhist, Taoist, Muslim, Roman Catholic and Protestant. Religious groups belonging to these five associations are the only groups permitted to register with the government and hold worship services. Other religious groups, including Catholics professing loyalty to the Vatican, are not permitted to register as legal entities.

However, even state-sanctioned religious associations face restrictions, including restrictions on printing religious texts. The government limits distribution of Bibles to government-approved churches, church bookshops and seminaries – preventing individuals from ordering Bibles directly from publishing houses.Tibetan Buddhists in the country are not free to venerate the Dalai Lama and the government continues to attempt to exert control over Tibetan religious traditions. Through the Management Measures on Reincarnation regulations, the government officially controls the selection of reincarnate lamas and other Tibetan religious leaders.

3. Social hostilities involving religion are on the rise in ChinaIn China, religious and ethnic minority groups, such as Tibetan Buddhists and Uighur Muslims, continue to face social discrimination, tension and violence. A recent Pew Research study note that increasing numbers of Buddhist monks, nuns and laypeople protested government policies toward Tibet by setting themselves on fire. For instance, two Tibetan lay people, ages 60 and 65, were beaten and killed by police in April 2011 at the Kirti monastery, where they stood in protest against the harsh treatment of Tibetan monks. And in February 2013, a former Tibetan Buddhist monk became the 100th person to protest restrictions in Chinese-governed Tibet after he killed himself by self-immolation in Sichuan Province. Communal tension and violence continued between Han Chinese and Uighur Muslims in the Xinjiang region and between multiple ethnic and religious groups in Tibetan areas (including Han, Hui Muslim, Tibetan Buddhists, and Tibetan Muslims).

Dr. Kim-Kwong Chan, JP, Executive Secretary, Hong Kong Christian Council, provided the following additional information on religion in China after the initial publication of this blog:

The Autonomous Chinese Orthodox Hierarchy was established in 1956, but ceased to existed and has not been reconstituted because the lack of a Bishop (the former Bishop died and had no successor). Currently there are about 20 Orthodox Churches fully registered and functional in China.

An instance of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (Mormons) has been allowed to register in Shanghai about three years ago.

Ba'hai communities, number in the thousands (Chinese nationals) in at least 7 provinces and have been allow to meet by the State Administration for Religious Affairs and are reportedly in an "acknowledged" status heading towards registration. A meeting of Ba'hai from across China is to take place in Macao this month, and SARA is reported to be sending official representatives to the meeting.

Folk Religion and its temples have been registered independently apart from the five major religion with provincial religious affairs bureau for some years already. Directorate Four of SARA was established several years ago to deal with religions other than the 5 major ones as well as all religious schools (seminaries..etc).

There are at least 15 religious groups labelled by the Chinese authorities as "evil cults," such as Falungong, Eastern Lightning, etc. They are part of the religious landscape in China but not administered by SARA/.RAB, but instead dealt with by the Public Security Bureau.

1. Virtually everyone in India is religious

Statistically speaking fewer than 0.1% of Indians report that they have no religion, according to a Pew Research analysis. Over 973 million Hindus live in India, comprising more than nine-in-ten (94%) of the world’s Hindus. Although Muslims are a minority in India (14% of the total population), India nonetheless has one of the largest Muslim populations in the world (in raw numbers). Although each accounting for less than 1% of the country’s total population, India is also home to one of the largest Buddhist and Folk religionist populations outside of China. Over 9 million Buddhists and nearly six million adherents of folk religions live in India.India has the largest share (47%) of all members of other religions, including millions of Sikhs and Jains – amounting to over 27 million people.

2. Social hostilities involving religion are prevalent in India

From mid-2007 until the end of 2011, religious hostilities in the country have continued to remain at a very high level, according to an ongoing study by the Pew Research Center.

As noted above, communal violence occurs somewhat regularly in the country. The U.S. State Department's 2012 international religious freedom report for India noted that many incidents were linked to politics, conversion, retaliation or economic competition for scarce resources among religious communities. In November 2012 the Indian government reported 560 cases of communal violence between January and October of that year. In Uttar Pradesh alone, there were over 100 communal clashes during the year, leaving 34 dead.

According to the State Department, the BJP, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and other affiliated Hindu nationalist organizations (collectively known as the Sangh Parivar) publicly claimed to respect and tolerate other religious groups; however, the RSS opposed conversions from Hinduism and expressed the view that all citizens, regardless of their religious affiliation, should adhere to Hindu cultural values, which they claimed were the country’s values. Conversion remains a contentious issue. For example, conversion of Hindus or members of lower castes to Christianity sometimes contributed to religion-related social hostilities. Hindu nationalist organizations alleged that Christian missionaries lured Hindus into conversions through various educational and healthcare incentives. While Christians contend that Hindus converted of their own free will and that Hindu groups’ attempts to “reconvert” new Christians to Hinduism were accompanied by offers of financial compensation.3. Government restrictions on religion in India are often a local affair

In comparison with central government controls of religion in China, India’s government restrictions on religion are often locally driven. The central government of India offers some legal protections for minority religious groups, however such freedoms are often perceived as a threat to social and cultural unity at the local level. Because of the strength of local restrictions on religion in India, Pew Research studies characterize overall restrictions as high.

Although the BJP, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and other Hindu nationalist organizations oppose conversions from Hinduism and assert that all citizens, regardless of their religious affiliation, should adhere to Hindu cultural values, which they see as the country’s values.

The National Commission for Minorities Act recognizes five religious communities – Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Parsis (Zoroastrians) and Buddhists – as minority communities. The law provides that the government will protect these religious minority groups and encourage conditions to promote their individual identities.

There are also different state laws that are only applicable to certain religious communities, known as personal laws. The government allows significant autonomy to personal status law boards in crafting these laws. Hindu, Christian, Parsi (Zoroastrian) and Islamic laws are legally recognized. Local authorities reportedly used part of the Indian Penal Code (IPC) to restrict minority religious groups. For example, one provision prohibits “promoting enmity between different groups on grounds of religion…and doing acts prejudicial to maintenance of harmony.” While, another provision prohibits “deliberate and malicious acts, intended to outrage religious feelings of any class by insulting its religion or religious beliefs.” Local authorities typically alleged that information in pamphlets or discussions at gatherings were injuring the religious sentiments of members of the majority religious group.

There are “anti-conversion” laws in five of the 28 states, state governments enforce existing “anti-conversion” laws, as protective measures to prevent individuals from being induced to change their faith.

Despite the National Commission for Minorities Act, some local police and enforcement agencies reportedly have failed to respond effectively to communal violence, including attacks against religious minorities. For instance, last October, Hindu nationalists reportedly attacked a group of Christians attending a baptism ceremony in Khantapada, Odisha. Following the alleged attack, local police officers arrested 20 of the Christian parishioners, instead of the attackers.

* The meeting is hosted by the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Autonomous Province of Trento. ** Angelina Theodorou provided valuable assistance with this analysis.

For more on global patterns of religious hostilities and restrictions, see my TEDx Talk.

The patterns among government restrictions on religion and social hostilities involving religion in the Middle East are similar to global patterns.

Image by freshidea

At the onset of the Arab Spring in late 2010 and early 2011, many world leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama, expressed hope that “this season of change” in the Middle East and North Africa would lead to greater freedoms for the people of the region, including fewer restrictions on religious beliefs and practices.

Before the Arab Spring, government restrictions on religion and social hostilities involving religion were higher in the Middle East and North Africa than in any other region of the world. Data from the Pew Research Center show that during Arab Spring hopes for greater religious freedom in the Middle East and North Africa did not materialize, at least in the short term. On the contrary, in 2011, when most of the political uprisings known as the Arab Spring occurred, government restrictions on religion remained exceptionally high in the Middle East and North Africa, while increases in social hostilities involving religion escalated.

Two types of restrictions stand out in Arab Spring

Among countries where Arab Spring uprisings occurred, government restrictions took various forms, but often they involved governments favoring one religion or sect above others. In Egypt, for instance, the government continued to permit people to convert to Islam but prohibited them from abandoning Islam for another faith. In Bahrain, the Sunni-dominated government used high levels of force against Arab Spring demonstrators, most of whom were Shia Muslims. And in Libya, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, then chairman of the National Transitional Council, declared in October 2011 that Libya in the post-Moammar Gadhafi era would be run as an Islamic state with sharia law forming the basis of legislation.

Such favoritism was much more prevalent in the Middle East and North Africa than in other parts of the world. For instance, as shown in the chart, the share of countries that have government policies that clearly favor one religion over another was nearly eight times greater in the Middle East and North Africa than in the rest of the world.

During Arab Spring, there was a spike in the number of countries in the region experiencing sectarian or communal violence, doubling from five to 10 between mid-2010 and the end of 2011. In Bahrain, for instance, sectarian violence erupted between Shia and Sunni Muslims during a months-long period of civil unrest that began in February 2011. The ongoing civil war in Syria, which began as a protest against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, now falls largely along sectarian lines. And in Egypt, the Coptic Orthodox Christian community was repeatedly attacked before and after the February 2011 fall of President Hosni Mubarak.

In comparison with the rest of the world, a considerably higher share of countries in the Middle East and North Africa experienced social hostilities involving religion. For instance, the percentage of countries experiencing communal or sectarian violence was more than four times greater in this region than elsewhere, as shown in the chart.

Arab Spring pattern is a global pattern

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Pew Research studies on religious restrictions have found that higher scores on the Government Restrictions Index (GRI) are associated with higher scores on the Social Hostilities Index and vice versa. This means that, in general, it is rare for countries or regions that score high on one index to be low on the other.

Some government restrictions have a stronger association with social hostilities than others. The Pew Research Center’s 2012 study found that of the 20 types of restrictions comprising the GRI, government policies or actions that clearly favor one religion over another have the strongest association with social hostilities involving religion.

As noted above, the share of countries in the Middle East and North Africa that clearly favor one religion over others was nearly eight times greater than the share in the rest of the world during the latest year studied. Therefore, based on the data, it is not surprising that social hostilities involving religion are high in the region.

The chart above shows other government actions that are strongly associated with social hostilities involving religion are (in descending order): the use of force against religious groups; failing to intervene to stop religious discrimination; and limiting conversion from one religion to another.

As the chart above also shows, social hostilities involving religion were lowest among countries where governments do not harass or intimidate religious groups; national laws and policies protect religious freedom; governments do not interfere with religious worship or practices; and governments do not use force against religious groups.

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Likewise, certain types of social hostilities involving religion are more likely to be associated with higher government restrictions on religion. The Pew Research Center’s 2012 study also found that of the 13 types of hostilities comprising the SHI, sectarian or communal violence between religious groups has the strongest association with government restrictions on religion.

As mentioned above, the share of countries in the Middle East and North Africa that experienced sectarian violence was more than four times greater than the share of countries elsewhere. Therefore, based on the data, it is not surprising that government restrictions on religion are high in the region.

As shown in the chart, other social hostilities that are strongly associated with government restrictions are (in descending order): hostilities over conversion from one religion to another; violence or the threat of violence to enforce religious norms; religion-related terrorist violence; and groups coercively dominating public life with their perspective on religion.

And as shown in the chart above, government restrictions are, on average, lowest in countries where there are no violent acts resulting from tensions between religious groups; there are no crimes or malicious acts motivated by religious hatred; there are no groups dominating public life with their perspective on religion; and there are no incidents of violence stemming from hostility over conversions.

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To provide one additional example of this relationship, an increasing number of governments around the world regulate the wearing of religious symbols or attire, such as head coverings for women or facial hair for men. The Pew Research Center’s latest report on global restrictions on religion finds that, as of 2011, 53 of the 198 countries included in the study (27%) have such restrictions, up from 21 countries (11%) in 2007.

While there may not be a direct causal connection between government regulations and social hostilities involving religious attire, Pew Research data show that harassment of women over religious dress occurs more often in countries where the wearing of religious symbols and attire are regulated by any level of government.

For more on global patterns of religious hostilities and restrictions, see my TEDx Talk.

For an empirical test of and case studies on the association between government restrictions and social hostilities, see my book with Roger Finke, The Price of Freedom Denied.