From where we now stand, Rachael, Alissa and Caroline all have a 4th place finish. So if any of them win, that would push them ahead of the girls with a silver and a bronze. Or mathamatically ( 4 + 1 ) > ( 3 + 2 ) .

Mmm chances of Czisny or Zhang are not too good. They both have to compete with Suzuki and Rochett, which will be a lock for 1-2 for sure. I can see Zhang getting the bronze, but there is also Laura Lepisto. What she lacks in TES, she more than make up in PCS part. So If Lepisto land 4 clean triple, she will edge out for sure.

This whole business of doing better in one event makes the whole situation complicated though. With Sasha out, it looks as though SA will be yu na and rachael for gold and silver . SC is a mixed bag though as Caroline, Alissa, and Mirai go head to head with each other against Akiko, Rochette, and Lepisto. All the SC ladies are pretty equally matched, clearly the judges favor some over others, but though Joannie is expected to win, it is very plausible that Mirai, Caroline, or Alissa could win the event with a good skate . Of the three Americans Mirai is probably our best hope at SC, as she did win the SP in China and the judges seem to be extremely harsh on Caroline :( and even if Alissa skates well technically she isn't as strong as a lot of the other competitors. Let's just hope Mirai doesn't get the downgrades for under rotating her jumps

I had never really heard of her as a big threat before. She won Cup of China, but was 4th in the SP. Mirai was first in the SP, meaning she can beat her when she rotates her jumps. And keep in mind that Joannie came in 2nd in the freeskate at CofC and she fell on her butt twice. Kiira Korpi came out of nowhere to win the silver there after being 8th at TEB a couple weeks before. Rachael was not having one of her better jumping days, and I felt like she and Mirai were just getting used to their new programs. Akiko winning the gold there I do not think was expected. She skated clean, but a 3lz-2t was the only combo jump in the entire program.

She appears to be a faster skater than Caroline and Alissa, but her spins and spirals are no where near the level of Caroline, Alissa, or Mirai. A 5th place finish at SC when competiting against Joannie, Caroline, Mirai, Alissa, and Lepisto seems very possible if these skaters perform well.

I think her winning in China was more due to it being early in the season for a lot of the other skaters to do well. She's definitely good, but beatable. Unless people have reason to believe otherwise

I think her winning in China was more due to it being early in the season for a lot of the other skaters to do well. She's definitely good, but beatable. Unless people have reason to believe otherwise

Recall that last season was the beginning of her veritable comeback from anorexia, and, considering, she did well; she'd only competed at NHK (2nd overall above Nakano), Nationals (3rd in the FS above Ando and Nakano), and 4CC (8th overall above Czisny, among others).

Considering that her PCS kept her out of the top 3 in the SP in CoC, it would seem that she's not prone to melt-downs as a skater. While winning might be a stretch, I think it's very safe to say that she'll make the Final with a podium finish at SC.

Akiko winning the gold there I do not think was expected. She skated clean, but a 3lz-2t was the only combo jump in the entire program.

She did Double Axels after other jumps which, while not a "combination" in terms of the actual definition, is worth more than just adding 2t to a jump.

Your assessment of Akiko is unfair. She skated very well at her Nationals last year and should have gone to Worlds. She is a better jumper than most of the field and her presentation has improved quite a bit. Akiko is blossoming into a GREAT skater.

I did not know she was out last season, and this may be why I have not heard much about her. Japan has so many good lady skaters, it will be interesting to see who makes it to the Olympics. As for Skate Canada, it seems like there are a lot of potential winners. Akiko could definitely do it, but so could Joannie. The three US ladies could definitely medal there as well, although recently Caroline, Mirai, and Alissa seem to be having problems with under rotated jumps. I guess it is a lot harder to rotate jumps when you're taller, as I think Caroline, Mirai, and Alissa are all around 5'5" now