Op-ed by Jeffrey L. Taylor

In The White House, Rose Garden ceremonies are usually reserved for big things; major legislation signing ceremonies, the arrival of a foreign head of state, and big American occasions.

On Tuesday, President Barack Obama used the symbolism of the Rose Garden to take a victory lap, of sorts. Because his one hallmark public policy achievement, the Affordable Care Act, tripped some magical 7 million figure of people who have signed up for health insurance on the Obamacare exchanges.

He should enjoy this victory lap, because every single indicator from here on out points to a very short celebration.

Misleading Figures

At his victory lap, the president refused to take questions from the news media. That's not surprising, but it is telling. The president and his staff are refusing to tell the America people just how many of the so-called 7 million - if that is an accurate figure - are actually premium-paying accounts. That is substantially a more important number than the aggregate 7 million figure.

The Obama administration is also refusing to tell the American people just how many of the 7 million will be receiving federal subsidies. One would think that information is vitally important to know and to convey to the American public; how many people are paying in and how much the government is paying out. But not a peep from the Rose Garden yesterday.

But the elephant in the room is a just-released study by the non-partisan and well-regarded RAND Corporation, which indicates that only 850,000 people are now premium-paying account-holders who were without healthcare insurance before Obamacare. 850,000 people? All this turmoil, partisanship, divisiveness and the near-destruction of the U.S. health care system, over 850,000 people in a country of more than 300 million?

Instead of forcing an unpopular Obamacare on America and turning our health care system into a giant ball of tangled Christmas tree lights, was it too much to ask our president if he could have focused on these 850,000 people first, and those who truly need assistance, without disassembling the entire U.S. health care system. Had he done so, he would have prevented this national nightmare and kept our world-class health care system intact.

Mind you, for many years we heard President Obama and the Democrats declare that there were 45 million Americans without health care insurance. It was always a bogus number, but for arguments sake, let's say that it is 45 million who had no insurance. Where are they? Why haven't they signed-up? What's with this magical 7 million figure? Where are the 45 million uninsured?

If RAND Corporation is correct and only 850,000 people have purchased insurance who didn't have it before, then that means the balance of this 7 million is mostly comprised of people who had health insurance, were presumably happy with their health insurance, but had to give up their insurance because of Obamacare.

In fact, we know that roughly 5.9 million Americans were knocked off their health care by Obamacare. So these people had no choice but to re-sign-up through Obamacare, receive less health care, for a larger monthly premium and annual deductible.

Where Are The Young?

Lastly, just a month ago, the percentage of those reported to have signed-up for Obamacare who are young and healthy was substantially low; unworkably low. Young and healthy people must sign up for Obamacare to offset the cost of signing up older, less-healthy customers.

The answer to this "young and healthy" question is the key to the whole house of cards. This number defines success or failure of Obamacare. But, again, no peep from the Rose Garden.

From all reports, the young are not signing up for Obamacare. 38% is the magic number of young needed to finance and maintain Obamacare, but the latest numbers from last month suggest only 24% have enrolled in Obamacare.

Thirty-eight percent is a very specific target in the calculus of Obamacare. It's not a figure that can be fudged. If Obamacare even gets to 37% instead of 38%, it is an imbalance and a possible loss of many millions of dollars, perhaps billions. The figure of 24% of young and healthy is a systemic disaster; a catastrophic and unsustainable number for Obamacare to survive as a system.

If that "young and healthy" figure is not at 38%, then basic mathematics - fourth grade math - makes it perfectly clear that Obamacare is a financial disaster on a global stage.

But even though all of these questions remain unanswered - and the Obama administration remains silent on the big questions swirling around Obamacare, Tuesday's White House Rose Garden ceremony was some great theater! Now reality will set in.

Jeffrey L. Taylor is managing partner of USGRI.com. He has served on Capitol Hill in several capacities and served in the administration of President George H.W. Bush. Follow him on Twitter at @USGRI_Lobbyist.

@AceLuby This is his signature plan! He's got bragging rights yet refuses to answer one single question??? If this is working out so well and the numbers add up, why not give the people (we're paying for it) the breakdown on the numbers? We have a right to know. But then again, we had a right to oppose this law and didn't get to exercise that right. And we should have had the right to opt out of it, but that won't happen either. It IS terrible. How many people have insurance, that's paid for, that will actually work, that's affordable without extremely high deductibles that must be met before medical services can be rendered??? CRICKETS...

@AceLuby We were TOLD by Mr. Obama that 40 to 50 MILLION were uninsured in America, that was the reason behind this mess. Now, 6 million have lost coverage they liked and (supposedly 7 million have signed up) and how many of them had coverage they liked before Obamacare? How many are now on the expanded (paid for by our taxes) Medicaid? How many are sick and older? How many are subsidized? So, by all I can see, this article included, a handful, a small handful at that, of those who did not have insurance before are now covered. That could have been taken care of without destroying the health care we already had. Our deductible doubled, so much for any savings. And we had perfectly acceptable healthcare before - now, because we are healthy, we get to spend a whole lot more out of pocket before we get any insurance benefits, well, unless we get hit by a bus, on Tuesday between the hours of 3 PM and 3:05 PM. Did I neglect to thank Mr. O for this wonderful new arrangement?

@MolonLabe Right........that is exactly why we needed Obamacare......under the old non-system American taxpayers paid more in taxes towards health care than any other modern country's taxpayers, and we still had millions uninsured and all the health problems and bankruptcies and other economic fallout of that.

Obamacare is designed to cover way more people at a lower overall cost to taxpayers. And it is working. Single payer would have been better and cheaper, but enough people wanted a market based system that Obama had no choice but to do it this way.......and it is way better than the old non-system.

Yes single payer would have been better, but the whining and shrieking from the right has been deafening with this market based solution.....imagine the shrill temper tantrums if democrats had actually passed a single payer system.

As far as the percentage that are on the Medicaid expansion.....who cares? Either way they are insured now, and that is cheaper for the taxpayers then them being uninsured.

It is working.....these things always need to be adjusted as they get rolled out.....Bush's prescription drug plan did......so what? It is working like it is supposed to. What is a new low? Poor people getting to go to the doctor? Is that a new low?

Did you know that in Kentucky alone this has reduced the percentage of the uninsured by 42% already?

Numbers are irrelevant when sign-up is required. Number of people signed up doesn't mean people can afford the insurance they have been forced to purchase, nor does it mean that vast increases in deductibles and co-pays aren't creating great hardship for everyone. Numbers don't equate to keeping your doctor, or keeping a drug that was working. To dwell exclusively on the numbers ignores real suffering that this law created.

It hard to imagine that there are people( with voting rights) that can't grasp your true statement! Basically this law just made @32 million outlaws out of the 40 million that didn't have insurance, only 7 million obeyed the law forced on them.

@Ashstop According to the figures I have seen, less than one third of the "7" million new sign-ups were without insurance before. The other two thirds are people whose previous insurance was cancelled due to Obamacare's new rules. They are not people who wanted to sign up voluntarily.That "43 million" who were supposedly without insurance before was always a lie used as an excuse to force this mess on the American people in the first place.

Partisan much? Seriously, you seem to be all over the place here, but allow me to point out just two of the many wrong turns in your piece.

1. "... that means the balance of this 7 million is mostly comprised of people who had health insurance, were presumably happy with their health insurance, but had to give up their insurance because of Obamacare.-- No, that means that folks who had coverage that didn't meet the basic standards set forth in the ACA now have better coverage, many at a lower cost.

2. "In fact, we know that roughly 5.9 million Americans were knocked off their health care by Obamacare. So these people had no choice but to re-sign-up through Obamacare, receive less health care, for a larger monthly premium and annual deductible." -- Do you have real, unbiased statistics proving that these 5.9 million Americans are now getting less care? And all of them are paying more for it? That's two incorrect statements in one, unless you can back that up with more than partisan rhetoric.

To your two points: Prior to Obamacare, those who were insured had policies that they decided fit their lifestyle and budget. After Obamacare, the people lost their policies and were told that they would have to get a policy written, approved, and sanctioned by a handful of Democratic Party members on Capitol Hill. No thank you.

For the most part, these people now do not have better coverage, are paying for coverage that they will never need, and their new policies are more expensive both in monthly premiums (double the cost) and deductibility (triple the cost)

Let’s face it, the three words affordable, care, and act have little to do with Obamacare.

As the president enjoys saying on an ever increasing basis... the debate is over on Obamacare being less expensive for people.

Obamacare will increase underlying premiums by 41 percent. The steepest hikes will be imposed on the healthy and the young. This is now considered a universal truth agreed on by even the most ardent Obama supporters. It’s a settled point.

As for the 5.9 people figure, there are differing figures, but they are all higher, none lower. Most agree the figure is closer to 10 million people who lost their insurance due to Obamacare. So as not to make that a focal point of the op-ed, I used the lower number.

#1 - And who appointed Obama God who could declare that what so many felt was perfectly adequate for their needs was suddenly substandard? We've been over this. I have no need for pediatric care, maternity care, pap smears, birth control of any type and so forth. I have no need for drug addiction coverage and all the other expensive goodies Mr. O deemed so necessary. It's a bit arrogant for YOU or anyone to decide that coverage I FIND TO BE EXACTLY WHAT I WANT and suits my needs, is substandard. That DNC talking point you wrote (and yes, it IS a DNC talking point and quite arrogant to boot!) is just that, an excuse.

#2 - Do YOU have any stats. to disprove it? No, and we all know why, Mr. Obama has been fudging the numbers, evading giving any clear count, saying they didn't have that information until MIRACLE ON MIRACLE!!!!!! within 48 hours that unknowable and impossible to get number was found, just in time to meet the dead line.

Really, it is any wonder that no one, other than the blind puppets, really believes for one second that any of the numbers he gave us are even close to reality? Will you be the only one to be surprised when those glorious figures are quietly downgraded in a week or so?

@JeffreyLTaylor "As for the 5.9 people figure, there are differing figures, but they are all higher, none lower. Most agree the figure is closer to 10 million people who lost their insurance due to Obamacare."Bullcrap. You're just a liar, and we all know it.

@Cal Thanks for the uplifting dialogue, but I'll stick with my original post. I'm certainly open to being persuaded on my point, and I hope others who are posting on this op-ed will give it a serious try, but if they use the words 'bullcrap' and 'liar' in their argument, then I'm betting the post wont persuade me. But I thank you for your comment and I do wish you well.

@JeffreyLTaylor And how was insurance ever going to be cheaper if we picked up and subsidized folks who couldn't afford it?........I am always surprised that many folks thought this would initially save money or be cheaper..........after 6 years of preparing for it.

Refuses to take questions,....doesn't have any answers to question such as how many were uninsured.... Only quotes we have signed up 7 million.... Knows no other facts....Sounds like a success to me.... Gets your boots folks it's getting deep!

The pin head sees failure as victory,No real surprise.Had the fool come out with a verifiable number that 7 million had enrolled and paid the premium that would be a start.315 million people and he brags of 7 million 80% of those that lost coverage due to the scam as a great thing?WTF no wonder he failed even as a community organizer.

Stalin used to do the same. He would central plan something, and it would inevitably fail. Then he'd just announce how "successful" it was. All leftist pas do the same. Look at Russia in the 60's. Their people living in huts, barely surviving, and Khrushchev would come over here and preach to Kennedy how much better the communist system was. Lmao. No matter how big the failure, a leftist will always claim success.

First the Democrats lie to the people about Obamacare to get it passed, keeping your insurance if you want, lower premiums, etc. etc. Then after they are caught in the lie, do they admit the lie & ask forgiveness? Of course not, those words are not in the Socialist's vocabulary. They spin it again, lie to us again & the lies keep building up. They keep spinning the numbers, desperately trying to keep control of the Senate so they can go on lying to the people, mandating intrusive laws furthering their ideology. If you let them get away with these lies, you are an unbelievable indoctrinated person.

Rather than pat himself so heartily on his back and release all his pent up anger at the Republicans and the few press who reported all the problems, delays and lies about this mess, I would have like to see a bit more of a subdued celebration, a whole lot more FACTS - real ones and perhaps see Mr. Obama display this sort of anger toward his and our real enemies. Putin, Syria, the Middle East, Iran and so forth. But, as usual, Mr. Thin Skinned is really pissed at US - we who questioned the plan, the numbers and kept asking how it could be so messed up. And, boy oh boy, did that come through clear as a bell, one of the few, the VERY few, transparent parts of his past 5 years.

A victory lap without a victory. When the government hides information from the public, Benghazi, IRS, Fast & Furious, Deportation Numbers and of course all of the information concerning Obamacare you know the news isn't good. I wonder just how long they will be able to hide the bad news from the public. The one title that Obama has truly earned is Liar in Chief and I suspect that title will never go away.

"Everybody complains about politicians. Everybody says they suck. Well, where do people think these politicians come from? They don't fall out of the sky. They don't pass through a membrane from another reality. They come from American parents and American families, American homes, American schools, American churches, American businesses and American universities, and they are elected by American citizens. This is the best we can do folks. This is what we have to offer. It's what our system produces: Garbage in, garbage out. If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you're going to get selfish, ignorant leaders. Term limits ain't going to do any good; you're just going to end up with a brand new bunch of selfish, ignorant Americans. So, maybe, maybe, maybe, it's not the politicians who suck. Maybe something else sucks around here... like, the public. Yeah, the public sucks. There's a nice campaign slogan for somebody:'The Public Sucks. F*ck Hope.'" - George Carlin