Good News For Gop In Post-election Polls

WASHINGTON — As Republicans sift through the ruins of President Bush`s re-election campaign, some good news and some bad news is turning up. They can take comfort from the fact that there`s little evidence the country has become much more liberal or the Democrats much more trusted. On the other hand, it is very clear that the Republican image and coalition have taken some heavy hits.

These conclusions come from post-election studies made public in the last few days by Richard Wirthlin, the pollster for Ronald Reagan and many other candidates, and, separately, by three of his former associates, Neil S. Newhouse, William D. McInturff and Glen Bolger, who now head up their own polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies. The two studies are complementary, not contradictory, but each has its own points of emphasis.

The Wirthlin poll, for example, pinpoints a stunning slump in public confidence in Republicans` handling of basic economic questions. Immediately after Reagan`s first victory in 1980, Republicans had a 61-20 percent lead over Democrats as the party more likely to reduce unemployment. That margin ebbed in 1984 and 1988, but the issue still worked for the Republicans. Now, however, Democrats lead by the same huge margin, 66-25 percent, as the better party to deal with jobs. Wirthlin says, ``I`ve never seen a change of that magnitude-a gross shift of 82 points.``

Similar, if slightly less dramatic, losses showed up for the Republicans on controlling inflation, balancing the budget and other economic measures. All of this leads Wirthlin to conclude that ``the Republican Party challenge goes far beyond the internecine struggles of the so-called religious Right and the so-called pragmatists. . . . We have a long way to go (to regain credibility) on the issues that are important to America.``

But his numbers also show that, despite their White House victory, the Democrats have gained little at Republican expense. On a ``thermometer`` that measures positive feelings on a scale from 0 to 100, the GOP has declined from a 63 rating in 1984 to 49 today, but Democrats have gone only from 55 to 58, Wirthlin says.

And on the basic measure of party identification, Wirthlin`s numbers show that both parties are back exactly to the point where they were after the 1980 election. The electorate divides itself now, as then, into 45 percent who think of themselves as Democrats, 35 percent Republicans, and 20 percent true independents.

Also, Wirthlin`s data show little change in the voters` self-image as conservatives. After the 1980 election, conservatives outnumbered liberals by a 56-26 percent margin; after this election, conservatives still predominate by a 60-34 percent ratio.

The Newhouse-McInturff-Bolger data show an even closer match in party identification, with Democrats up only 6 points over the Republicans and independents scoring a bit higher-at 25 percent.

But they, too, note the deterioration in the Republicans` appeal to key voting groups. Between April of 1991 (when the Persian Gulf victory euphoria boosted Republicans into temporary parity with the Democrats in party identification) and the week after the November election, Republicans lost more than 20 points in support from young people, working women, middle-income ($30,000-$40,000) earners, Westerners and Northeasterners.

Verbatim responses, said Newhouse, showed an increase in the number of people who associate the word Republican with the stereotype of ``intolerant, closed-minded,`` a reflection, he speculated, of the tone of some of the GOP rhetoric in the recent campaign.

But, as in Wirthlin`s study, the Public Opinion Strategies report contained little that could give the Democrats a sense of smug self-confidence. ``The image of the Democratic Party as free-spending liberals hasn`t changed,`` Newhouse said.

``People wanted change so badly,`` McInturff added, ``that they were willing to give Bill Clinton a chance to prove that he is `a different kind of Democrat.` But . . . the perception of the Democratic Party as big spenders is so strong, it will take very little on his part to confirm it.``

The trio also noted that voters identify the Democrats with Congress, and Congress` rating is overwhelmingly negative. Three weeks after the election, only 16 percent of those polled said they approved of the job Congress has been doing, while 69 percent disapproved.

What all this suggests is that the politicians of both parties-Democrats as much as Republicans-are on probation, so far as the public is concerned. Republicans have lost many of the issue and perception advantages they gained in the `80s, but the voters have not yet embraced the Democrats. Instead, they view them too with deep skepticism.

The anger and frustration that made it such a tough year for George Bush and other incumbents of both parties are still out there. If those just elected don`t measure up, their tenure could be brief.