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BOSTON (CBS) – LeBron James and the Miami Heat are off the NBA Finals for the third straight season, with their series against the San Antonio Spurs set to get underway on Thursday.

SI’s senior basketball writer Ian Thomsen joined 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Toucher & Rich on Tuesday, and while he thinks the Heat will prevail for their second-straight title, says the series will be a lot closer than many think.

“It’s going to be a lot tighter than we thought. It looked all year they were going to run away with it, but that was when Dwyane Wade looked like he usually does, and he hasn’t,” said Thomsen.

Should the Heat lose to Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and the Spurs, could they look into breaking up their Big 3 of James, Wade and Chris Bosh — who will all be free agents after next season — this summer?

“All this talk about breaking up the Heat, I’m sure they’d look into things if they lost. But I don’t see how they would make the team better and I don’t see how that would convince LeBron to stay after next season,” said Thomsen.

Thomsen also shot down a rumor that Ray Allen is considering opting out of his final year with Miami to return to the Boston Celtics.

“That’s going to come out now when he was getting ready to play a Game 7 for a team trying to win a championship, and the Celtics are in a rebuild, when players of his age don’t want to be in that?” questioned Thomsen. “So he’d be walking away from a team that is probably going to win a championship this year, has a great chance next year, to go play with Rondo – who he didn’t get along with?”

“If he wanted to come back, if he didn’t like the way it ended (in Boston), then maybe so. But my gut feeling is no.”