Synopsis

The future America is an irradiated waste land. On its East Coast, running from Boston to Washington DC, lies Mega City One- a vast, violent metropolis where criminals rule the chaotic streets. The only force of order lies with the urban cops called "Judges" who possess the combined powers of judge, jury and instant executioner. Known and feared throughout the city, Dredd is the ultimate Judge, challenged with ridding the city of its latest scourge - a dangerous drug epidemic that has users of "Slo-Mo" experiencing reality at a fraction of its normal speed.
During a routine day on the job, Dredd is assigned to train and evaluate Cassandra Anderson, a rookie with powerful psychic abilities thanks to a genetic mutation. A heinous crime calls them to a neighborhood where fellow Judges rarely dare to venture- a 200 story vertical slum controlled by prostitute turned drug lord Ma-Ma and her ruthless clan. When they capture one of the clan's inner circle, Ma-Ma overtakes the compound's control center and wages a dirty, vicious war against the Judges that proves she will stop at nothing to protect her empire. With the body count climbing and no way out, Dredd and Anderson must confront the odds and engage in the relentless battle for their survival.

We had a new release on top of the Blu-ray sales chart for the week of January 20th, 2013. Taken 2 sold 838,000 units and generated $16.75 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 42%, which is good for the genre, but not great.
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A couple new releases topped the DVD sales chart of the week of January 20th, but they were nowhere near each other in terms of sales. Taken 2 led the way with 1.17 million units / $19.82 million. This is substantially lower than the original's opening week; however, it instantly became the best selling DVD of 2013. Plus, it sold substantially more on Blu-ray than its predecessor did.
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New releases dominated the top five of the Blu-ray sales chart for the week of January 13th, 2003. Dredd led the way in terms of units with 184,000 units, but was second in terms of revenue with $3.68 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was just 37%, which is weak for an action film like this.
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There were seven new releases to reach the top 30 on this week's DVD Sales Chart, including four releases that reached the top five. Leading the way, at least in terms of units, was Dredd, which sold 320,000 units, while it generated $4.80 million. This is weak compared to its reviews, but great compared to its box office numbers.
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Newreleases were a bit of a mess, as Christmas Day was a Tuesday, so there were a few releases that came out the following Monday. One of those releases, Looper, led the Blu-ray sales chart during the week of January 6th with 317,000 units / $6.66 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was just 34%, which is lower than I was expecting.
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Given how bad the new releases were, it's no surprise none of them reached the top of the Blu-ray sales chart. (While Looper was awarded the Pick of the Week, it actually came out on the following Monday, while the sales week ends on Sunday, so the numbers will be included in next week's results.) The Dark Knight Rises returned to first place with 314,000 units / $7.65 million for the week giving it totals of 3.90 million units / $79.93 million. It is one of the best selling Blu-rays of all time and about 50% more than The Dark Knight's current running tally.
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After two weeks of almost nothing worth talking about on the home market, there's plenty to talk about this week. ... Actually, to be totally honest, it is another slow week, it's just not painfully slow. (Also, I'm unwilling to pad the list like I had to do the last couple weeks.) Worse still, because the holiday just ended, a lot of the screeners that were supposed to arrive have not, including a few Pick of the Week contenders. Compliance, Dredd, and Frankenweenie are all contenders that are currently late, and I really don't like choosing a late screener. In the end, it was literally a coin toss between Archer: Season Three on DVD or Blu-ray and Red Dwarf: X on DVD or Blu-ray. And the coin said... Red Dwarf: X.
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September ended on a record-breaking note as Hotel Transylvania finally bumped Sweet Home Alabama out of top spot on the September weekend list. That record lasted a full decade, which is amazing given the total ticket price inflation since 2002. Not only did Hotel Transylvania crush predictions, Looper also did a little bit better than predicted, a tiny bit better than predicted. This is true of just about every film in the top ten, and every little bit helps. Overall, the weekend box office surged 30% from last weekend to $118 million, which was 19% higher than the same weekend last year. Let's hope this is more than a momentary blip and the beginning of a new winning streak.
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It was another terrible week at the box office with only one of the four wide releases matching pre-weekend predictions. End of Watch was able to come out on top and it was only the second time an Open Road release was able to do that. The rest of the films ranged from a little disappointing to, 'Please don't make me talk about this; it's depressing.' The overall box office rose by 5.1% from last week to $90, but that's a staggering 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Yes, year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but its lead continues to shrink reaching just 2.5% at $7.92 billion to $7.73 billion. Ticket sales are just 1.3% higher than last year's pace and the upcoming releases don't seem particularly strong, so by the end of October, we could officially be in trouble.
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Moviegoers have delivered a split verdict this weekend, with any one of three films in the running for top spot as of Sunday morning. End of Watch and House at the End of the Street are tied at $13 million, according to projections from Open Road and Relativity, but Trouble with the Curve is right behind them with a projected $12.72 million, according to Warner Bros., and the eventual winner is still anybody's guess. In fact, Trouble with the Curve may have a slight edge, since it is likely to have better legs on Sunday. For all the intrigue at the top, September continues to be a very sluggish month at the box office, and there's little that this weekend's new releases will do to change that.
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This weekend there are four wide releases, which is too many. The odds are at least one, more likely two films will miss reaching their full potential. That's under normal circumstances. The box office is clearly sub-normal at the moment. The widest release of the week is Trouble with the Curve, but its Tomatometer Score has fallen from close to 90% to barely more than 60%. At this pace, by the time the weekend starts, it will be below the overall positive level. House at the End of the Street has good buzz, but still no reviews, and that is troubling. Dredd's reviews are shockingly good, but the film has had trouble escaping the remake stink. Finally, End of Watch is also earning great reviews, but its studio has a really bad track record at the box office. By comparison, last year there were four wide releases, none of which earned more than $20 million; however, three of them did earn more than $10 million and the fourth came close, while The Lion King won the weekend with more than $20 million. I think it will be another loss for 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. It likely won't be close.
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Next weekend there are four films opening wide. Not only that, but there is a real debate about which film will be the number one release over the weekend. Trouble with the Curve went from being a film that might not open truly wide to the widest release of the weekend. (I think the RNC has a lot to do with that.) However, it has aimed at a very mature target demographic, and they rarely rush out to see a film's opening weekend. On the other hand, Dredd screams Fanboy and its reviews are amazing. However, the buzz is bad, mostly from people complaining about the original. End of Watch also has great early reviews. However, Open Road has only had one film crack $10 million during its opening weekend. House at the End of the Street has one of the hottest young stars, Jennifer Lawrence, in the lead. However, there are no early reviews. So which film will be our target film? Ummmm... Let me grab a dice. House at the End of the Street is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for House at the End of the Street.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Terra Nova: The Complete Series on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Terra Nova: The Complete Series on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August is over and let's just be glad we never have to talk about that month again. It is too early to tell how a couple of the wide releases from the month will do, but of the other fourteen we have solid numbers for, none of them were a pleasant surprise. There were a few that were mildly disappointing, but likely still profitable. There were also a few that were "What were they thinking?" level of box office bomb. This September, there about a dozen films opening wide, depending on your definition of wide. (Plus, For A Good Time, Call might expand wide on the 14th, while The Master is opening in limited release on the 14th, but might expand wide before the end of the month. "Might" is the key here. I don't think either will get it done.) None of the dozen films are likely to get to $100 million. In fact, there's a good chance no film opening this month will get to $75 million in total. The biggest film of the month could be Finding Nemo, which is getting a 3D Re-release. As long as the movie going public hasn't tired of 3D re-releases, it should be a hit, but there are signs that the trend might be ending soon. There are a few others that should become midlevel hits, but most will struggle to find an audience. Last September was not terrible with one $100 million film and a few other midlevel hits. For 2012 to come out ahead, it will have to rely on depth, and I'm more than a little worried in that regard.
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The shaded area represents the expected performance range for a film, based on its opening weekend box office. 95% of films fall within the shaded area. If a film trends towards the top end of the shaded area, it has good legs compared to the average film; if it trends towards the bottom end of the shaded area, it has poor legs. The predictive area is based on movies from the past 5 years.

Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
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