Michaela Dodge: A risky weapons strategy

July 3, 2013

Updated Aug. 21, 2013 12:28 p.m.

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U.S. President Barack Obama (L) speaks next to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev after signing the latest nuclear arms reduction treaty between the two countries, known as "new START", at Prague Castle on April 8, 2010 in Prague, Czech Republic. GETTY IMAGES

U.S. President Barack Obama (L) speaks next to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev after signing the latest nuclear arms reduction treaty between the two countries, known as "new START", at Prague Castle on April 8, 2010 in Prague, Czech Republic. GETTY IMAGES

Remarks in Prague

Speaking in Hradcany Square in Prague, the president made the following remarks: "One nuclear weapon exploded in one city – be it New York or Moscow, Islamabad or Mumbai, Tokyo or Tel Aviv, Paris or Prague –- could kill hundreds of thousands of people. And no matter where it happens, there is no end to what the consequences might be – for our global safety, our security, our society, our economy, to our ultimate survival."

Source: Office of the Press Secretary

On June 19, President Barack Obama announced his next initiative on nuclear weapons reductions, calling on Russia and the U.S. to reduce actively deployed nuclear warheads by one-third from 1,550 to around a 1,000. The White House also released a 'Fact Sheet' on the new U.S. nuclear weapons employment strategy. The president's initiative rings hollow at a time when every nuclear power except the U.S. is increasing its strategic arsenal.

"Before seeking additional reductions to our nuclear arsenal, the administration should certify that the Russians are fully complying with all existing arms agreements, and the administration should honor the nuclear modernization commitments it made during the last round of nuclear reductions," observed Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H.

The administration's review wasn't strategic because it was based on the premise that the U.S. has more weapons than it needs, as the president said in March 2012 in South Korea. In contrast, a sound strategic review would begin by assessing threats that the U.S. or allies might face.

There are plenty. Since Obama took office, North Korea conducted its third nuclear device test and has threatened to use nuclear weapons on U.S. cities. Russia has launched its most extensive nuclear weapons modernization program since the end of the Cold War, and Iran is moving ever closer to obtaining nuclear weapons capability of its own.

The president's new guidance is based on false premises. For example, it "directs DOD [Department of Defense] to strengthen non-nuclear capabilities and reduce the role of nuclear weapons in deterring non-nuclear attacks." Yet sequestration and budget caps will reduce the Pentagon's budget by almost one trillion dollars between now and 2021. This scale of reductions will not allow the military to protect U.S. vital national interests. The sequestration is already causing a readiness crisis, and conventional weapons cannot substitute for the unique attributes of nuclear weapons.

The president says he is taking these steps to achieve "peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons." This is just wishful thinking. A world without nuclear weapons is not inherently more stable or peaceful. World War I and World War II, which followed centuries of brutal warfare, are testaments to this fact. Only after the invention of nuclear weapons has mankind enjoyed unprecedented levels of relative peace.

Nuclear weapons policy is too important to be left to unrealistic assumptions and wishful thinking. This nation cannot afford to just barely deter an attack; it needs a nuclear weapons arsenal that is credible in the minds of U.S. allies and adversaries today and in the decades ahead.

Michaela Dodge is a policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation.

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