Warriors face adversity in Oklahoma City, now let’s see how they respond

The Warriors face a near-must-win tonight at Oklahoma City. And they’ve never looked more in trouble than they look now. This might be where the win the championship, right here, tonight.

So what has to happen? Here are some takeaways regarding what went wrong in Game 3, what needs to happen for Game 4.

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Game 3 was such an aberration, I find hard to justify a lineup change. Going to Andre Iguodala in the lineup in place of Andrew Bogut doesn’t seem as strategically sound against the Thunder. It puts Green on Steven Adams. I bet he’ll get a friendly whistle posting up Draymond Green. It theoretically would pull Adams out of the key, if he’s defending Green (or Andre Iguodala, like Cleveland did). But I’m not sure if the payoff — corner 3s or Green driving around Adams) is worth the risk. Not to start the game.

I like the small lineup as a tempo changer in this series. I think it is more critical for the Warriors to knuckle up and battle to start the game. This is about energy and athleticism and vigor. Which is why I would be in favor of this lineup change:

Starting Festus Ezeli.

I don’t believe the start of the game is the biggest problem for the Warriors. The reality is the Thunder will make a run, and the Warriors will have to withstand it. Whether it is at the start of the game or in the second quarter or the fourth quarter, whatever. They can’t just buckle again.

What’s important is letting the Thunder know from the gate the Warriors are going to fight back. This isn’t a game for the soft hook shot Andrew Bogut took. Steve Adams can’t just be out there moving unimpeded. Ezeli has the athleticism and youthful energy to be felt.

Now, don’t post him up. Tell him if he takes one of those ill-advised hook shots, he’s sitting down. But he can get back in transition. He is looking to break the rim. He is bouncy and energetic and game for a fight. He just has to work through the jitteriness.

If it doesn’t work, come back with Andrew Bogut or go small.

The other option: quick hook for Bogut. If he isn’t moving well. If he isn’t engaged at the rim. If Adams is causing problems, bring in Ezeli.

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Warriors have been intimidated by the Thunder’s length. Oklahoma City is doing a good job of being in position to contest and the Warriors know they are big and long and it’s in their head.

Green resorting to twisting, contorting layups. Barnes double-clutching layups. Thompson pump-faking out of shots. Curry keeping his dribble alive longer. Iguodala pulling it back out on fast breaks. The Warriors are certainly aware of the length and size of the Thunder.

The problem: trying to avoid getting your shot blocked produces worse results than actually getting your shot blocked. You go into shot-blockers and not away from them. Go up strong instead of maneuvering mid-air. The Warriors have to finish better and drawn more fouls — not with flailing but with pump fakes and drives into the chest of the defender.

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The penetration of Oklahoma City just killed the Warriors defense. And from the looks of it, the Warriors helped. They were pressing for the drive, in many cases shading turn to help.

That proved detrimental because 1) the rotations were not crisp and 2) OKC is elite at penetration.

In Game 2, lanes were shut off as the Warriors dared OKC to make shots. That crowded the paint and took away driving lanes. They need to go back to that. Giving Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant – and even Dion Waiters – driving lanes is a bad idea even if rotations are on point. They have too good of instincts and improvisation in the lane.

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The Warriors offense is killing them. Plain and simple.

Lots of one-on-one, no fluidity and no rhythm. Quick shots are deadly as they lead to the Thunder’s unstoppable transition game. And the Warriors are letting missed shots impact their whole life.

One of the major flaws I see in the offense is … you guessed it … Stephen Curry off the ball. It is such a relief for the defense. And they get to rough him up. The officials called two away-from-the-ball fouls in Game3, but that was after the route was on. And those are rare.
Plus the Warriors aren’t patient enough to let it work. Once Curry is not open, the other players just go one-on-one. That’s just not good offense.

Green’s one-on-one works best when he sets up others. Klay Thompson doesn’t kick it back out when he doesn’t have it. Harrison Barnes usually settles for a pull-up. The Thunder will live with that all day.

The Warriors need more pick-and-roll and more Curry isolations in halfcourt sets. And they absolutely have to push it more, harder. Stop playing so shook.

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Here is a one-on-one I want to see: Curry on Westbrook.

Whenever they are matched up, Curry calls for a screen, to get the matchup against a big. That makes sense. (Though he should take that big more instead of giving it up so the big man can get lost chasing Curry around. Unless the Warriors are actually going to work it back to him instead of getting rattled and forcing something.) But I want to see Curry take Westbrook one-on-one a few times.

The reason: whenever they are matched up, Westbrook amps up like he has something to prove. He gets real physical and handsy. In other words, he’s ripe for a foul call.

And if Curry scores, you can almost guarantee he is going to come back down and go back at him. That’s the Westbrook you want, the one teetering on the brink of out of control.

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Steve Kerr has to coach a better game. Anderson Varejao should not be on the court. He shouldn’t wait until the run is 10-0 to call a timeout. And he has to get his guys to stop worry about the officials.