The Dallas Cowboys will be without starting QB Tony Romo when they host NFC East rival New York Giants Sunday afternoon. Romo is out for 6-10 weeks with a back injury, and we have seen the odds shift from the opening line of Cowboys -3.5 to Giants -1, all expected with close to 70% of the money on the Giants as we approach game time. The total has dropped from the opener of 49 to 46 points, no doubt also as a result of Romo’s absence.

The Giants

The Giants finished last season with a 6-10 record, good enough only for third place in the division. They averaged 26.3 points per game, ranking them eighth in the NFL, but their defense was terrible in allowing an average of 27.6 points per game, placing them down at 30th overall. They’ve added some depth to their secondary though so expect an improved Giants D this season.

Eli Manning is coming off a career year where he tossed for over 4400 yards with 35 touchdowns. Expect most throws to go to Odell Beckham Jr who caught 96 passes for 1,450 yards last season with 13 touchdowns, the second highest total of any wide receiver. They don’t have much depth at wide receiver, and the Giants will need a big season from Rashad Jennings on the ground if they’re to improve on last season’s record.

The Cowboys

The Cowboys finished at the bottom of the division last year with a 4-12 record. Romo missed plenty of games and the Cowboys averaged only 17.2 points per game, but a decent defensive unit held opponents to 23.4 points per game, placing them 16th overall.

Dallas missed a good backup for Romo last year, but Dak Prescott has been lively in the preseason throwing for over 450 yards with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, and he might have been the preferred starter even with Romo fit. Dez Bryant who suffered a concussion in training camp said he feels great and will be ready to go in this matchup giving Prescott a reliable target out wide. Bryant missed several games with a broken foot last year and he was never really 100% during the whole season, so he’ll be eager to have a big season. The Cowboys first round pick Ezekiel Elliott rushed for over 1800 yards with Ohio Start in 2015 and will be the Cowboys’ go-to guy on the ground.

Trends

Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games overall.

Over is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games on fieldturf.

Over is 6-1 in Giants last 7 games in Week 1.

Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.

Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.

Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games overall.

Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Dallas.

Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Dallas.

Over is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings.

Our Pick: Dallas Cowboys +1

The public has overreacted due to the fact of Tony Romo’s injury, and the value is now on the Cowboys.