EnergyTrend Lithium Battery in IT Products and Power Application Market Report

According to the latest research by EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, the market of new energy vehicle will continue to grow steadily, driving the demand for xEV batteries, despite the slowdown in global automotive market since 2018. The global demand for lithium-ion batteries used in new energy passenger cars is estimated to reach 155GWh in 2019, a growth of 63% from 95GWh in 2018.

According to Duff Lu, senior research manager of EnergyTrend, China has become the world's fastest-growing market for new energy vehicles driven by the government’s subsidies and supporting policies. After a rapid growth in 1H18, the shipments of new energy cars in China slowed down in 2H18, moderating the demand in the xEV battery industry as well. However, with increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium-ion batteries used in new energy passenger cars in China will grow to 54GWh in 2019, a growth of nearly 80% from 30GWh in 2018.In terms of supply, the production capacity of xEV battery in China has surpassed 134GWh by the end of 2018, and has a chance to reach 164GWh in 2019. Amid the oversupply and phasing out of subsidies from the Chinese government, the industry has been faced with a reshuffle since the second half of 2018. Major manufacturers have grown stronger at the expense of the demise of smaller companies. Leading players like Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and BYD continue to expand, while less competitive ones who rely too much on regional markets, such as OptimumNano Energy, may have to exit the market during the market reshuffle.

EnergyTrend expects that, with new capacity entering operation in 2019, the xEV battery industry will become more concentrated. The top five battery manufacturers would continue to grow and become the major suppliers. Subsidies from the Chinese government will be phased out by 2020, but before that, the industry will still depend on the subsidies to cover their R&D costs for advanced battery technologies. Manufacturers need to continue the development of high energy density solutions, building up competitiveness, before the electric vehicle market enters the maturity stage.

According to EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, eased oil prices and sliding xEV battery costs may drive Taiwan’s fledgling electric scooter market. Taiwan is expected to have 78000 electric scooters in 2018, taking a share of 8% in its overall scooter market. For 2019, the market share of electric scooters will reach 10%, of which 90% will be heavy electric scooters, up from 85% in 2018.

The global electric vehicle market continues to expand while the oil prices increase, power battery prices decrease, and countries have been proposing stricter CO2 emission targets for vehicles. EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, forecasts that the market share of electric vehicles will reach 5% in 2020 and 8~9% in 2023.
According to Duff Lu, senior research manager of EnergyTrend, stricter CO2 emission targets for vehicles worldwide have been the main momentum for the growth of electric vehicle market. The target of CO2 emissions for cars in China was 200g/km in 2015, and is expected to be 119g/km in 2020. In North America and Europe, the targets will be 124g/km and 95g/km respectively in 2020, down from 150g/km and 130g/km respectively in 2015. By 2020, it will the first time for China to have a CO2 emission target lower than the U.S.

Development of NMC Battery May Ease the Tight Supply of Cobalt in 2018, Says EnergyTrend

The demand for xEV battery sees significant growth in 2017 due to the development of new energy vehicles, resulting in a 114% price surge for cobalt. In order to ease the cost pressure, battery makers are looking for ways to decrease the amount of cobalt used in xEV battery manufacturing. EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, forecasts that xEV battery with lower ratio of cobalt will be the mainstream product in 2018, easing the tight supply of cobalt.
According to Duff Lu, senior research manager of EnergyTrend, the price of cobalt has seen a new high in the past year due to the market’s overestimation of xEV vehicle demand, from US$35/kg in early 2017 to US$75/kg at the year end. The high prices have led to occasions that the pricing for cobalt transactions is not based on contract prices.

The latest lithium-ion battery market report from EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, finds that the price upswing for battery cells has started to moderate since this third quarter. Although the price of cobalt reached a new high for the recent years during the third quarter, prices of battery cells have been climbing more slowly after the large hikes in the second quarter. The overall price increase in the battery cell market is anticipated to be even smaller for this fourth quarter.
By types, polymer cells saw the largest price hike this third quarter with the average increase being more than 3% compared with the prior three-month period. Both cylindrical and prismatic cells saw a smaller sequential price that averaged around 2%. Cylindrical and prismatic cells generally use cathode materials of lower cobalt content (such as NMC), so their prices are less influenced by the dynamics of the cobalt market. As for polymer cells, the upward movement of their prices in the third quarter has not been as sharp as in the second quarter. However, their average price increase was still the largest because of the costs of raw materials.

Prices of Lithium Battery Cells to Go Up in Second Half of 2017 Due to Seasonal Demand, EnergyTrend Reports

The global market for lithium batteries witnessed an average price increase of 15% to 25% for battery cells in the first half of 2017 compared with the second half of 2016, according to EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce. This rise was mainly attributed to the cobalt price hitting a five-year high. Going into the second half of 2017, the price upswing in the cobalt market is expected to start leveling off. On the other hand, seasonal demand during the same period will drive market for batteries used in x-electric vehicles (or xEV, which include plug-in hybrid electric and battery electric vehicles). EnergyTrend projects that battery cell prices on average will increase by about 10% this third quarter compared with the previous quarter and will continue to be on a gradual uptrend through the fourth quarter.
Duff Lu, senior research manager of EnergyTrend, pointed out that the sizes of price increases differ by cell types. For cylindrical cells, their most common cathode material is nickel manganese cobalt (NMC). Around 15% of the cost of NMC is based on the cobalt content. Polymer cells, by contrast, mainly use lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) as their cathode material. Cobalt accounts for about 50% of the cost of LCO. “As cobalt price trend climbed to its highest point in five years, prices of polymer cells from Chinese suppliers also rose by more than 20% on the worldwide market this second quarter compared with the first quarter,” said Lu.

High Cost of Cobalt Pushes Up Prices of Lithium Batteries for IT Devices by More Than 15% Between First and Second Quarter

The latest lithium-ion battery market report from EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, finds that the price upswing for battery cells has started to moderate since this third quarter. Although the price of cobalt reached a new high for the recent years during the third quarter, prices of battery cells have been climbing more slowly after the large hikes in the second quarter. The overall price increase in the battery cell market is anticipated to be even smaller for this fourth quarter.
By types, polymer cells saw the largest price hike this third quarter with the average increase being more than 3% compared with the prior three-month period. Both cylindrical and prismatic cells saw a smaller sequential price that averaged around 2%. Cylindrical and prismatic cells generally use cathode materials of lower cobalt content (such as NMC), so their prices are less influenced by the dynamics of the cobalt market. As for polymer cells, the upward movement of their prices in the third quarter has not been as sharp as in the second quarter. However, their average price increase was still the largest because of the costs of raw materials.