An ongoing analysis of southwest border violence issues by an experienced intelligence professional.

I am a consultant and analyst with eight years of military law enforcement experience, six years of analytical experience covering Latin America, and over seven years of analytical experience covering Mexican TCOs and border violence issues. This blog is designed to inform readers about current border violence issues and provide analysis on those issues, as well as detailed focus on specific border topics. By applying my knowledge and experience through this blog, I hope to separate the wheat from the chaff...that is, dispel rumors propagated by sensationalist media reporting, explain in layman's terms what is going on with Mexican TCOs, and most importantly, WHY violence is happening along the US-Mexico border.

With over a dozen years of combined experience in military law enforcement, force protection analysis, and writing a variety of professional products for the US Air Force, state government in California, and the general public, Ms. Longmire has the expertise to create a superior product for you or your agency to further your understanding of Mexico’s drug war. Longmire Consulting is dedicated to being on the cusp of the latest developments in Mexico in order to bring you the best possible analysis of threats posed by the drug violence south of the border.

April 06, 2011

"Drug violence in Mexico: Are tourist zones the latest victims?"

Here is an excerpt from Christine Delsol's article in the San Francisco Chronicle:

"The first question a traveler asks these days when considering a trip to Mexico is not the time-honored "How do I avoid getting turista?" or "How many pesos will I get for my dollar?" but "Is it safe?" Until recently, the answer was easy: Yes, if you keep informed and stick with the popular tourist destinations. In the past year, that has begun to change. Highly publicized drug-cartel killings in Acapulco's tourist zone, a hand grenade in a popular Guadalajara nightclub only a block from the upscale Hotel Fiesta Americana, and muggings and shootings near Mazatlán's cruise port are signs that tourist destinations are no longer insulated from the drug-related violence wracking Mexico. Monterrey, one of Mexico's most important medical tourism destinations and an upscale city that enjoyed a quiet distance from the brunt of the conflagration in its early years, has seen a raft of shootouts and kidnappings, prompting the State Department to order all its personnel in the city to remove their children from the city. In Guadalajara, U.S. government officials are prohibited from traveling after dark.

"It's not a sudden change of heart among the drug lords, but a perhaps inevitable progression of turmoil within the country's drug-trafficking network that has been simmering for more than a decade. Contrary to one popular misconception, the cartels have never given tourists a free pass because of the money they bring in, or for any other reason — tourists simply weren't relevant to the drug business. Nor are tourists relevant now. If cartels do not have a hands-off policy, neither do they have any particular interest in going after tourists. Rival gangs are their main focus, with law enforcement authorities, government officials and journalists close behind. Visitors are not the targets of the violence, but rather we are closer to the violence in certain places, which is unnerving at best and dangerous at worst. ut if it feels like all bets are off and random violence is everywhere, that's not completely true, either. There are reasons the violence erupted when and where it did, and it's surfacing in tourist areas now for specific reasons. This context, absent from most reports about the latest killing or kidnapping, might not be much comfort, but it at least provides an informed basis for deciding whether and where to travel." Link to Full Article

Analysis: I really don't have much more to add, but I did want to let my readers know that this is one of the best explanations I've seen regarding how and why drug-related violence has moved into some tourist areas. There is more good info in the article, but it's lengthy; I highly recommend that you follow the link and read the whole thing.

The main point Ms. Delsol makes is that the DTOs aren't moving into places like Acapulco and Mázatlan because of the tourists, but in spite of them. And it's true when she says this is both good and bad news. It's good because it means that tourists aren't in DTO crosshairs. However, the violence is going to shift geographically based on how the supply chain adapts to business and enforcement conditions. Sometimes that's unpredictable, and kidnappings and shootouts can start erupting in once-quiet areas in a matter of days.

Bottom line, know before you go, as cheesy as that sounds. Do your homework, contact the US Consulate closest to the area where you'll be traveling, and do a Google News search for that city or town to see if there have been any incidents there related to the drug trade.

Comments

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The grenade in Guadalajara was not lauched in a popular nightclub. Far from that, this nightclub is barely known in town, and one of the shareholders of this business is a politician which is why the nightclub was targeted.
I live in Guadalajara and people keep living their lives in a normal way. The grenade attacks are the consequences of the killing of Nacho Coronel (one of the Sinaloa Cartel lords) because there are groups like "the resistance", the "los zetas" and "la familia michoacana" who try to take advantage of the instability of the Sinaloa Cartel to gain control of more territory.
The probability to be caught in some of these events in Guadalajara is very insignificant: no lives of foreigners were claimed in that city for the time I have been living here (2 years).

It appears that things are heating up in Acapulco and in Nayarit. While the increasing number of killings may not be happening in the tourist hot spots, they must still be having some effect on tourism and the relative feelings of fear among those wishing to visit Mexico, not to mention the increased violence in formerly "quiet" Saltillo, Torreon and Zacatecas.