April 5, 2016

#BigasHindiBala: Is it the NPA Communists' Fault?

The blaming game started right after the Kidapawan Massacre. Farmers blame the government, the latter blames NPA communists. To shed light on the issue, Thinking Pinoy did some research about everything that happened before the evening of March 29th, or the day the protest started, with sources cited for easy verification. Let's go.

Now, it's time to put things into perspective. Let's evaluate what has transpired during the months leading to that fateful day. Let's find relevant information that will shed light in this already-muddled situation.

Let's go.

TIMELINE: Before the Kidapawan Protest-turned-Massacre

11 April 2015: M’lang and Kabacan towns in North Cotabato (NoCot) were put under state of calamity due to severe drought. P230 million crop damage reported so far [Interaksyon].

01 June 2015: Government warns droughts will intensify, then end in May 2016. PAGASA said "weak" El Nino will worsen by August 2015. [Interaksyon].

30 July 2015: PAGASA warns El Nino most intense in 17 years by October 2015 [Inquirer].

Gov. Mendoza alloted P14 million for El Nino efforts, saying unused fund will be kept intact to account for unforeseen calamities since the province is still in the first quarter of the year [NDBCNews].

26 January 2016: Department of Agriculture (DA) and PAGASA started cloud-seeding [Inquirer].

10 February 2016: A farmer in neighboring Maguindanao killed himself because he was “so worried about where to look for food for his family as his crops had all died" [Inquirer]. Some NoCot residents reported leaving for other areas to look for ways to feed their families [Inquirer].

02 March 2016: PAGASA suspends cloud-seeding operations on 02 March due to safety concerns [Philstar].

18 March 2016: NoCot crop damages reaches P1 billion, with P989 million due to drought and P84.5 million due to rat infestations. Provincial agriculturist admits P4 million cloud seeding produced little rain. [Inquirer]

20 March 2016: TP has done a Google search for “North Cotabato Food Aid” articles dated between 01 February 2016 and 30 March 2016, and there was none. Politicians in general love to gain publicity when they conduct such projects, so the absence of any mention about North Cotabato food aid distributions since mid-February 2016 likely implies that weren’t any.

29 March 2016: 500 Farmers assembled in front of NFA Kidapawan, marking the start of the Kidapawan protests [GMANews].

Now, it's time to analyze.

First, both Malacanang and the Cotabato Provincial Government knew that El Nino is already happening in as early as April 2015, as shown by the declaration of states of calamity in two NoCot towns.

PAGASA also informed the government that the already-devastating drought will become even more devastating. In as early as July 2015, PAGASA warned us that this will be the worst El Nino, ever. Of course, the public expects that this will prompt government to put up a disaster mitigation plan.

Second, the Senate discovered that there was no mention of any El Nino funding in Malacanang's proposed 2016 budget, as pointed out by Senator Drilon in September. Malacanang's negligence is clear at this point. El Nino is a major natural catastrophe, yet they did not even bother to allocate funds for it.

Regardless, Malacanang inserted a P 2 billion proposal in responss, and DA eventually got P 900 million from the final 2016 budget, passed by year-end 2015. The Senate also appears to be blamed partly for this, because they provided less than half of what DA asked for.

Third: So far, we can see negligence from Malacanang and, at least at first glance, negligence from the Senate. Note, however, that for now, I only partly blame the Senate because there are many factors in budget deliberations that I still don't have information about. Besides, Malacanang could have easily proposed a larger budget in anticipation of the lower final allocation.

Why? Because even by late October, it's clear that the government is still downplaying PAGASA warnings and empirical data from the NoCot LGUs.

Just like what Roxas did during the Yolanda crisis, where he brought to Tacloban his entire entourage MINUS PAGASA personnel.

Morons.

But wait! It gets more ridiculous.

Fourth, El Nino was already at its peak when DA suddenly discovered some time in late January to early February that P 900 million is not enough: they wanted a total of P 3 billion instead. But 2016 budget deliberations are over, making that request harder to fulfill.

Let's recap a bit: DA didn't want El Nino funds during the budget hearing stage. Pressed by Senate in Sept, they asked for P 2 billion in October. After budget hearings, they got 900 million and they didn't complain.

Around the same time, NoCot declared a state of calamity, enabling them to tap onto whatever calamity fund the province has or had. And when they did tap that fund, P3 million was also earmarked as supplement to the cloud seeding budget,
since DA can afford only two week's worth because lack of
national-level funds.

And despite the millions spent for cloud seeding - that lasted for barely over a month - the provincial agriculturist said it was a waste of money because it produced little rain! Rice takes 4 months to grow, corn takes at least two. One month of water and nothing afterwards is a good as none. That, is, NoCot's P4 million simply went up in smoke.

Now, what could P4 million buy?

NFA sells Regular Milled Rice to government agencies at P23 a kilo [NFA], so P4 million can buy 173,913 kilos of rice. At the most, there were 6,000 farmers in the Kidapawan Protest, so that's at least 28 kilos per protesting farmer.

Even if it still isn't enough, it's still 15 times betterthan the 3-kilos-per-quarter promise [Interaksyon], right?

By mid-February, NoCot residents are starting to feel severe hunger. That is expected given the fifth point above. Initially, Thinking Pinoy even tried to google NoCot food aid projects to no avail, but after seeing that budget allocation, it is hardly surprising.

And now, for the sixth and most important point:

Gov. Mendoza, the PNP, and even Malacanang said NPA coaxed these starving farmers to form the Kidapawan Highway blockade.

But Malacanang and Mendoza conveniently forgot that they have neglected the people of North Cotabato for so long. NPA or no NPA, they have been starving for months. They are facing the certainty of death from hunger. The two even had the gall to accuse the farmers of using their children as human shields [Philstar].

Did Malacanang expect the farmers to hire housemaids who can watch over their kids while they beg for food?

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