Friday, January 4, 2013

It’s January, and we haven’t seen baseball in a long time,
so the idea of thinking at length about the contract status of a relief pitcher
is oddly enticing even though I know it shouldn’t be. So much so, in fact, that
I decided to create a blog (or really, a baseball blog raindrop in a ginormous baseball
blog ocean) to share some thoughts that I just couldn’t fit into 140-character
bursts. So then: let’s talk about Darren Oliver!

If you’re here, then you know about this, and I won’t waste
any time repeating any of it. There’s been a lot of talk about whether Oliver
is justified in his demands, but I’m more interested in the $3MM club option
that’s causing this situation in the first place, and why the Blue Jays ever
wanted to include it on his contract. As far back as last offseason when Oliver
and the Jays agreed to that contract, it was fairly clear that there would be
two possible outcomes:

Oliver pitches poorly in 2012 and the Blue Jays
choose not to exercise the option, or

Oliver pitches well in 2012 and the Blue Jays exercise
the option, expecting him to take a 25% pay cut as a 42-year-old coming off of
a good season.

I don’t see the second option as a particularly reasonable
expectation, and I can’t imagine that the Alex Anthopolous – who seems like a
man who takes the time to consider all possible future implications of his
decisions – would have, either. So why, then, was that option ever included in
the contract? What did the Blue Jays stand to gain by offering such a
poor incentive for an old reliever to forego retirement for one more year?

I wouldn’t say that I fully believe this was their original
intention, but the option actually puts the team in a rather enviable position:
it effectively makes Oliver a restricted free agent and gives the Blue Jays
exclusive negotiating rights with a pitcher who was among baseball’s best in
2012. As a true free agent, Oliver would be among the most desirable arms on
the market not only because of his performance but also because of his unique
situation – he’s an elite relief pitcher who will likely only want a one-year
contract at this point in his career. Consider that Jeremy Affeldt recently
signed for 3 years and $18MM, and the idea of paying $5 or $6MM for one year of
Oliver (while avoiding the inherent risk of long-term contracts for relievers)
seems extremely palatable. If you think about it as an unlimited exclusive negotiation window instead of an option - which I admit is a bit of a stretch, but bear with me here - then the situation becomes a lot less frustrating and a lot more fun.

Would the Jays rather have Darren Oliver for $3MM in 2013?
Almost certainly, but I believe that they’re smart enough to have known when
they signed the contract that was never really an option. Instead, by including
the club option, they’ve given themselves an unusual chance to take their time
and negotiate exclusively with a pitcher they would surely like to have in their
2013 bullpen. No competition, no bidding wars, no distractions – just the
opportunity for the two parties to try to work something out before the season
begins. And while Oliver undoubtedly has a huge amount of leverage in this
situation, the fact that the Blue Jays are even a potential destination for him
in 2013 is a direct result of the inclusion of that somewhat surprising $3MM
option in his contract. Because of that, I can’t agree with the idea that they’re
being cheated; on the contrary, I’m a fan of the opportunity they’ve given
themselves (whether intentional or not) and hopeful that the two sides can reach
some common ground before pitchers and catchers report to Dunedin next month.