As the calendar turns to 2013 and the holiday tournaments are over, we are a week away from the seeding meeting for the Bergen County hockey tournament. The tournaments, especially the Holiday Classic at the Ice Vault, were invaluable in getting a much clearer picture of some teams.

Thus, our second edition of Bracketology brings some interesting changes in the possible seeds

First, the structure. It is a 12-team field, and all 12 slots will be filled. The criteria for entry:

All teams with a winning percentage of .650 or better automatically qualify

Teams with a .500 winning percentage are eligible for consideration as an at-large team

Teams under. 500 may apply for consideration in the event there are not 12 teams with .500 or better winning percentages. No team with an under.500 winning percentage will be considered ahead of a team with a .500 or better winning percentage.

The top four seeds will receive byes through to the quarterfinals. Seeds 5 through 12 will play the first round; 5 plays 12, 6 plays 11, 7 plays 10, 8 plays 9

After the first round, the tournament is re-seeded, with the lowest remaining seed playing 1, the next lowest 2, etc.

The semifinals will also be re-seeded, with the lowest playing the highest and the middle two playing each other.

Got it so far? Now, just where will everyone fall? Let’s look at it in groups of four. The bye teams, the middle four, the last four in and those on the wrong side of the bubble.

THE BYE TEAMS

Ramsey (8-0-2)

Quality Wins: Morris Knolls, Randolph, Kinnelon, Ramapo

Tough Losses: None

Remaining before Cutoff: West Milford, Lakeland

Why #1: The Rams were the big winners from the Ice Vault tournament, winning three games in six days against three teams ranked in the top 10 in New Jersey, including two top Public A teams (Morris Knolls and Randolph) and a Kinnelon team that is a top Public B candidate. Barring a major letdown in the next two games, it should be enough to push the Rams ahead of Don Bosco and into the top seed.

Don Bosco (5-2)

Quality Wins: Bergen Catholic

Tough Losses: Gloucester Catholic

Remaining before Cutoff: CBA, Delbarton

Why #2: Their game with St. Joseph Metuchen was lost to weather, so the Ironmen ended up with an extended vacation. It will likely hurt them come seeding time, unless they can pull off what would still be considered an upset of Delbarton. Even that may not be enough, but the idea that there is even a debate means the tournament is no longer Bosco and the rest of the field.

Glen Rock (7-2)

Quality Wins: St. Joseph, Pascack Valley, Tenafly, Indian Hills

Tough Losses: Ramapo

Remaining before Cutoff: Kinnelon, PascackValley, Northern Highlands

Why #3: The Panthers loss to Ramapo in the Ice Vault Classic only slightly tarnished their image. The game on New Year’s Day against Kinnelon could go a long way toward solidifying their spot as the third seed. They will be a tough out no matter where they fall, based on their systematic play.

Paramus Catholic (10-0)

Quality Wins: Ridgewood, Fair Lawn

Tough Losses: None

Remaining before Cutoff: Bayonne, Ridgewood

Why #4: Imagine winning two games, being the first team in New Jersey to 10 wins, remaining undefeated and falling two spots. The Paladins were the big losers in the Ice Vault Classic even though they didn’t play in the event. Ridgewood’s three losses further downgraded the Big North Gold and took some of the luster off of the Paladins. All they can do is play their schedule and keep winning and see where the chips fall.

THE MIDDLE FOUR

St. Joseph (3-1)

Quality Wins: Pascack Valley

Tough Losses: Glen Rock

Remaining before Cutoff: Pope John, Montclair Kimberly

Why #5: The Green Knight team today is not the one that you’ll see in the tournament. Five transfer players become eligible on January 1 and they will bring added depth to the goaltending and defense. With almost two weeks off, the Knights could slip further if they play inconsistently this weekend and others stay hot.

Ramapo (7-2-1)

Quality Wins: Glen Rock

Tough Losses: Indian Hills, Ramsey

Remaining before Cutoff: Wayne Valley

Why #6: The two wins they got in the Ice Vault classic (shutouts of Glen Rock and Rumson-Fair Haven) put the Raiders back in the conversation for a possible seed as high as four, but it might not have been enough. Unfortunately, their game with Morris Knolls was lost to weather and rescheduled after the cutoff, so they lost a shot at a defining win.

Indian Hills (6-2-2)

Quality Wins: Ramapo

Tough Losses: DePaul

Remaining before Cutoff: Wayne Hills, Mahwah

Why #7: A tie against Brick keeps the Braves in this middle pack, somewhat offsetting the loss to Glen Rock. The next two games against teams with winning records should be a good tell as to which team the Braves really are.

Why #8: With only 11 teams presently owning .500 or better records, the Crusaders can still make the field as the at-large team. Or they can win their way in with victories in the next three games. They just dropped a Classic game to St. Joseph Metuchen 4-1 and lost to Chatham as well. Their game with Kinnelon in the tournament was lost to weather.

THE LAST FOUR IN

Ridgewood (7-4)

Quality Wins: None

Tough Losses: Paramus Catholic, Wayne Hills, Mahwah

Remaining before Cutoff: Clifton, Paramus Catholic

Why #9: The Maroons have fallen off the cliff (not the fiscal kind) with four losses in a row and they didn’t look good in any of the three Classic games (Wayne Hills, Park Regional, Mahwah). If their struggles continue this weekend, they could slip even further in the seeding.

Tenafly (6-3)

Quality Wins: West Essex

Tough Losses: Pascack Valley

Remaining before Cutoff: Mahwah

Why #11: The Tigers have won three in a row and because of weather they lost a second meeting with West Essex in the Montclair tournament final (its unclear if they will play that before the cutoff). That means they only have the Mahwah game next Tuesday on cutoff day.

Mahwah (5-4-1)

Quality Wins: Ridgewood

Tough Losses: Wayne Hills

Remaining before Cutoff: Paramus(twice), Indian Hills, Tenafly

Why #12: The Thunderbirds got three wins in the Classic, beating Monsignor Farrell, Paramus and Ridgewood. They need a split of the next four, but if they get three and they beat Indian Hills and/or Tenafly, they could actually move up a couple of spots.

Fair Lawn (8-2-1)

Quality Wins: None

Tough Losses: Indian Hills

Remaining before Cutoff: River Dell, Dumont

Why #11: Their tie with West Essex cost them a shot at winning the Montclair tournament. Another Big North Gold team that gets hurt by the Ice Vault Classic, even though they moonlighted for one game (a win over Wayne Valley). The next two games won’t help them that much.

THE BUBBLE BURSTS UNLESS……

Pascack Valley (3-4)

Quality Wins: Tenafly

Tough Losses: Glen Rock, St. Joseph

Remaining before Cutoff: Glen Rock

Why #13: Two losses over the holidays (to Newton-Lenape Valley and West Morris Mendham) put them below the .500 mark and they will have only one chance to earn a berth and potentially knock out Bergen Catholic. A loss to Glen Rock will leave them spectators.

River Dell (5-7)

Quality Wins: None

Tough Losses: Dumont,Lakeland

Remaining before Cutoff: Passaic Valley, Fair Lawn

Why #14: The Golden Hawks beat West Orange and Morris Hills in the South Mountain Classic but their loss to Lakeland cost them a shot at .500 and an entry slot. They must now win the next two games and hope that Pascack Valley loses to Glen Rock in order to sneak in as the 12th team.

Because it happens all the time in sports, expect someone to stub their toe this weekend and change the seeds once again.

What do you think? Feel free to agree, disagree or analyze to your heart’s content. Just keep it civil.

First and foremost, Happy New Year to the hockey community and may 2013 bring us quality play, heart-warming stories and may be a few championships.

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