It’s likely too soon to promote any promising Astros prospects

Two weeks is the bare minimum needed to evaluate anything about a player in the minors, general manager Jeff Luhnow said. Next month is a more realistic time for players to move up, considering that by mid-May, the 144-game season is about a third of the way done.

“Well, it depends. Were they at that (same) level last year?” Luhnow said. “What they do during the offseason, do they go to the fall league, what they do during the spring, how are they doing so far … two weeks is the earliest you can read anything into how a player’s performing. But there’s still a lot of variability within that.”

The two names Astros fans are most concerned about are at Class AAA Oklahoma City: outfielder George Springer and first baseman Jon Singleton. But the top picks in the last two drafts, shortstop Carlos Correa and starting pitcher Mark Appel, also prompt curiosity at Class A Lancaster. When do they move to Class AA Corpus Christi?

One thing to keep in mind is that Singleton, unlike Springer, is already on the Astros’ 40-man roster. The same is true for several of their Class AAA teammates, such as outfielder Domingo Santana. If the Astros have a big league need, players currently on the 40-man roster might be the first to be promoted, depending on the state of the roster at the time.

“I expect for our most famous prospects that everybody wants to see move quickly, we can use (Mike) Foltynewicz as an example,” Luhnow said. “Last year, he went to high-A instead of Double-A (to start the year). Everyone was clamoring for him to be in Double-A. And he went down there and did his work, and by early May, he got a promotion to Double-A.”

Lancaster is a tough club to evaluate because it plays in such a hitter-friendly environment. Hitters and pitchers alike can fall into bad habits.

“A month in, if a guy’s excelling – but you have to realize that Lancaster is an example – it’s a difficult place to get a complete clean read on how a player’s doing,” Luhnow said. “Some of them might be hitting .330 there, and that translates into .230 in the Texas League, and the Texas League is less than the PCL. We rely more on what our coaches are saying, what the rovers are saying, and what we’re hearing from our staff.”

There remains a financial incentive for the Astros to wait to promote players to the majors until later in the season, roughly June. They avoid the potential of a player’s becoming Super Two-eligible after the 2016 season.

Super Two players- calculated in a mildly complicated way based on service time – gain an extra year of arbitration eligibility, four instead of three. A player attaining Super Two status is a potential cost of several million dollars to a team.

Springer said Monday he wasn’t sure exactly what Super Two meant. Singleton said he had an idea.

Money aside, there’s a thought in the organization that a midseason promotion might simply make for the easiest transition for top prospects. The Astros could be out of contention at that point, and the hype of the first few weeks of the season would be gone.