Friday, December 31, 2010

If you had told me going into December, that I'd be within 10% of last year's sales this month, I'd have been as happy as a clam.

If you had told me that I'd be within 5% of last year, I'd have danced a jig. A happy clam dancing jig.

If you had told me I would actually exceed last year, well -- I'd have done an happy clam dancing ballet for you.

In the end, I'm saved from having to do a happy clam dancing ballet by a grand total of ----$112.42.

For goodness sake, if I'd known I was going to be that close, I'd have stayed late a couple of extra nights or something. This is a statistically insignificant percentage down from last year, less than 1/2 of 1%.

I think this is an especially good number since last year was the 4th month of a 7 month increase in business, so to match that is really accomplishing something.

When the national media reports 3 or 4% ups or downs as significant, a 10% drop may seem rather drastic. But actually, at least in my business, I tend to see regular increases or decreases in that range.

A 10% drop, in fact, is pretty easy to handle. A slight adjustment to my spending and everything is fine and no one will notice. Sometimes, I can even adjust mid-month and hit my goals. Even a 15% difference can be handled, if not quite as easily.

Now 20% differences or more, that's takes more effort not to be harmed. But, I fully expected a 20% drop.

Most of the last nine months have been in the easily adjustable range, except for two significant exceptions. In both August and Sept., I was down 25% or so, and what that meant was that my credit card balance did not get zeroed out like I prefer at the end of every busy season. I had to put that off until this Holiday Season.

Anyway, I went into this season planning for a15% decrease, with the flexibility in my mid-month spending to adjust down to 20% or up to 10%. When I saw Christmas was going to be better than I expected, I started making some extra boardgame and new book orders.

The biggest and most effective change I've made in the second half of this year, was to make my "savings" automatic. I have a set amount pulled out at the same time every month, so it is necessary for me to plan or budget for it.

It is turning out to be much easier to accomplish savings this way, than the way I've been trying to do it for years -- attempting to squeeze some profits out at the end of the month. Making it a solid part of my budget, and then needing only to meet that budget, has made a huge difference.

It meant, for instance, that this Christmas I was able to spend the extra profits I was making on more product, because I knew the savings were already taken care of.

Apparently I just needed that extra step -- the impersonal withdrawal of a set amount each month. Shrug. If it works, it works.

So I can take every bill I have, pay them in full, zero out the credit cards and lines of credit, and have a little pocket change left over.

I've been talking about how well boardgames have been doing this Christmas. It's not dramatically higher than last year, but considering everything, it felt a little stronger this year.

I think these games are approaching the tipping point.

Tipping into national awareness, instead of word of mouth. I mean, those who know -- know. For those who haven't heard of them, I always say, "Well, you heard it from me first, but you'll hear about it again."

Anyway, becoming a national phenomenon is both good and bad for us. During the first third or so of an upsurge (as I said, I think it's gaining steam) we'll do very very well. If I'm careful to have them in stock while the other guys continue to have spot shortages people will come to us.

But eventually, as I always say, supply catches up to demand. And then piles on.

If it hits the chainstores, all bets are off. I foresee Settlers of Catan and Carcassonne and Ticket to Ride selling for massive discounts.

But then it will start not to be so "cool" anymore, and ....well, it'll be my job to recognize each stage of the cycle.

To the games themselves:

It's been a long time since I could "cold" sell an item in my store with any kind of consistency. I'm talking about a product that the person walking in the door had no intention of buying -- maybe even something they hadn't heard of. This is really hard to do.

European boardgames have been that item this Christmas -- and these aren't even all that cheap, at least for my store, running in the 30.00 (Carcassonne) to 42.00 (Settlers of Catan) to 50.00 (Ticket to Ride and most other major games.) 100.00 (Huge boxes of Warcraft and Descent.)

I call Settlers of Catan the "gateway drug" of boardgames. Many people have at least heard a glimmering of it -- followed closely by Ticket to Ride. (Railroads!)

Over the last couple of years, I kind of developed a sales patter for boardgames, which I've had a chance to refine. You know, you talk about a product enough, you start to realize which phrases people are responding to, and you keep those, and you discover which phrases people aren't responding to, and you throw those out.

I can't vouch for a 100% historical accuracy in the following spiel, but I'm pretty sure it's close.

"So we've all played Risk and Monopoly, right? But those games get sort of -- predictable, you know? You settle on one strategy, and that's that.

"When they tried to make the games less predictable, like Axis and Allies, they became overly complex, taking way too much time to learn.

"So, about 15 years ago..." (Catan has a copyright of 1995) "...some of the European gamemakers made some substantial improvements. They, in a sense, reinvented the boardgame and it's been pretty big in Europe every since. American games have followed suite, and there are many cool boardgames in every subject -- from pirates to S.F. to humor to historical to....

"The best game to start with is Settlers of Catan, followed by Ticket to Ride, followed by Carcassonne. But any of them are fine as the starter game.

"Here's what makes them great.

"1.) The setup to the game is different everytime. So you can never play the same strategy twice. It has endless complexity and fascination and yet....

"2.) They are easy games to learn. Usually about halfway through the first game..." (I snap my fingers), "you suddenly understand it."

"3.) They are interactive and cooperative games, that you can play with your family or friends. And people forget how much fun that is. Anybody from about 8 years old on up, but it isn't just for kids, or even primarily for kids.

"4.) They are strategic games -- they rely less on Luck than most old American style games.

"5.) Here's a really cool feature. You don't know who's winning the game until its over. Everyone is "in" the game to the end.

"They only take about an hour to play, most of them.

"6.) And finally, I like to point out that the production quality of these games are very high. They just feel and look good. Usually people play these games at a friend's house, and then they GOTTA have it. Because they're addicting. It's sort of a word of mouth -- cool -- sort of thing so far."

So that's it, tailored to the individual customer, of course.

So, some people, if I'm glib and on a roll will actually listen to the whole spiel and will be wavering....

Here's where the two secret Christmas ingredients comes in.

The first secret ingredient is my own enthusiasm; I've really enjoyed Settlers of Catan and Ticket to Ride, and I'm a relative newbie myself, so I can relate.

The second secret ingredient, are the other customers. Someone in the store will pipe up and confirm, "That's a GREAT game!"

If I don't have someone doing that voluntarily, sometimes I'll turn to the most likely customer and ask, "Have you played the game?" and sometimes they have.

So put all those ingredients together, mix them together into the feverish Christmas buying pot, and....

I'll sometimes make a sale. It's not every time, by any means. But more successful than most "cold" sell situations.

If they turn me down, I always just comment mildly, "Well, you heard about Settlers of Catan from me first, but you'll hear about it again. In fact, as 10 friends and I'll bet one of them has played it. Or, go online to, say Boardgamegeek. com, and check out the whole scene. You'll be amazed..."

I've learned my lesson. I need to get my haircut and beard trim before the holidays. Because once the holidays get here, it seems to be impossible to schedule. I'm a gray, hairy beast.

***********

I need a holiday from the holidays...

**********

Borders has run out of money to pay its vendors.

Hard to be a store when you don't have stuff to sell.

**********

I still get the occasional urge to rent a movie.

If Blockbuster disappears, will we see a small resurgence in small, local rental stores? Maybe?

It would seem to be an analogy to small bookstores versus B & N's and Borders. People who still want books may be willing to frequent the neighborhood bookstore, again.

Or will they end up in the back of some chainstore, or something.

**********

Can't be a good sign for the Green Hornet movie that absolutely no one has asked for the Green Hornet comic.

I've had inquiries about the Green Lantern stuff -- but again, not so much the comics.

Green Hornet -- Green Lantern. I can see the confusion already.

**********

I always felt that the Cascade group of magazines here in Bend served a particular niche.

I've never known whether this niche is typical of metro areas, or whether it was unique to Bend. When you look at their advertisers, there are a whole lot of construction and real estate people in there, and that had to have been a drag over the last couple of years.

I just don't feel like being harsh toward this venture. The owner showed a whole lot more civic spirit than I've ever shown, for instance. The optimism level was a tad --high, shall I say? But people seem to like that, "Never mind the funnel cloud, we're having a picnic!" attitude.

The trying to separate "personal" from "business" debts seemed a little convoluted, but who knows?

If you take them for what they are, I see no reason not wish them good luck.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

So, I posted the following message on a national game retailers bulletin board:

"We did well with boardgames this Christmas.

But I must have had a couple of dozen customers ask for chess sets and or cribbage.

Thing is, I carried a basic 40.00 wooden chess/backgammon set for a year, and was turned down by just about everyone.

After I sold it, I kept asking, "What kind of chess set are you looking for?"

"Oh, just your basic set."

My theory is they come in not looking for "a" chess set, but "the" chess set; one they already have an image of. And the chances of me having "the" chess set are minimal; maybe it'll be wood and they want crystal. Maybe they'll want Star Wars and I'll have LOTR's. Something.

I have a Pirates of the Caribbean that no one has even had a follow up question. Not interested.

I also don't really have room to display chess sets, and I have a feeling this is probably necessary.

Anyway, Alliance seems to only have a small selection of them and doesn't seem terribly interested in them.

My questions; does anyone here do well with them?

How do you go about it?

Where do you buy from?

The answers were: What You Said.

Everyone seemed to have the exact same experience.

I was telling a customer this, and he said, "Hey, What's the problem? We used to play with coins."

"Really? You needed coins? I used to just play it in my head!"

"Oh, yeah? 3-D? I'm talking 3-D."

"But, of course...."

Anyway, someone else mentioned that you can play chess online now, what do you need a board for?; and I was somewhat thunderstruck. Of course. I haven't played Solitaire with an actual deck of cards in ages.

I don't want to be one of those guys who pops up and says, "We're doing great, what's wrong with you guys!" (If being within 1% of last year is "great.")

I hate those guys.

Like I said, boardgames were a good seller this season, and that was a lucky thing. (More about that, next entry.)

I'll say it again, if I've said it a hundred times. It's not the actual sales that matter, it's what you expected the sales to be. Not only is your overall mood and motivation affected by the expectation game, so are the real blood and guts results.

That is, if you overestimate, you'll overspend -- both on overhead and on cost of goods. (The opposite is true, also -- but that's much safer place to be. Underestimating sales, you can easily recover from simply by picking up the phone and ordering more.)

Preferably, you want to be in a kind of sweet spot of having adequate overhead and product, with the flexibility to do more or less, as the days unfold.

I'll have more about what I ACTUALLY expected sales to be this Christmas in a blog for tomorrow night.

You'll probably get tired of me talking about it -- but, this really is the end of a long week/month/year, and it really is time to take stock of where I've been and where I'm going.

Up through Christmas Eve, we were ahead of last year. I can't tell you how surprising this is. Summer was terrible, so I factored in similar drop. Instead....it's been pretty good.

I wanted to wait until the very end of the week/ month/year, to report results, because I know from experience that after-Christmas sales levels can be very different, and because I didn't want to jinx it, and --well-- because I thought it would be more fun to report an unambiguous increase from last year.

The Bulletin has an article on local sales, so I thought this might be time to say something. The downbeat tone of the article was exactly what I felt I was hearing from other retailers. I suppose, because I expected so little, that the season felt all right to me.

After Christmas week is almost a different season from pre-Christmas. I never know what will happen. It always seems to surprise me.

Sure enough, with a couple of days to go, I've fallen slightly behind, though one more big day (hint, hint -- I'll cut you a deal...) and I'll be right back on track.

The final totals will be within 1% of last year, in any case, so I suppose it's not that meaningful. But here's the thing: I fully expected a 20 to 30% drop.

I think boardgames kind of saved the season, which was pure luck. I did aggressively stock the games, so I'll pat myself on the back for that.

It means I'll be able to pay off not only the business related credit card bills and debts, but also the personal credit card bills. I'll have a completely fresh slate for next year.

I don't want to stop being careful however.

You know that scene in the action film where the hero is tumbling down a hill, and at the last second grabs a branch before he goes over the cliff?

He sighs a big sigh of relief, then....

CRACK!....

...the branch starts to splinter.....

CRACK!!!

I don't want to get too comfortable. I'm still going to be very, very careful next year. Just like the recent stock market increases, customer sentiment can go down just as quickly as it goes up.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

The city of Bend has hired a consultant who's job it is to hire a consultant -- who no doubt will hire a consultant -- about Mirror Pond.

I give up.

I'm not even going to try to write another satire about that.

********

Meanwhile, is it just me, or does the 911 system in Deschutes County constantly change? And the library system? Do we always need a new jail?

I mean, I understand improvements -- but sometimes it just seems more like change just to make change.

**********

People really did wait until the last moment for Christmas buying this year. Every Holiday Season I fear that what's currently happening back east with the blizzards -- something like that will happen here.

Anyway, that's my experience. A lost sale is a lost sale, and it's twice as hard to make up lost ground. (It's hard to make the regular sale today and also try to make the sale you didn't make last week.)

Thanks to the Mythbuster's show on the spread of cold germs, I can't stand to be around myself. I'm toxic. Stay away! The infrared dye is everywhere!!!!!!

**********

Congratulations to Deschutes Brewery for their expansion. I always get the sense that they know what they're doing, that they expand in a measured way.

I thought there was an announcement not far back that that space was going to be used for something else, but this makes much more sense.

Good thing we have the parking garage!

**********

Seemed like everyone who walked in the door this Christmas had one of those distinctive Powell's candy bags.

I knew I went into the wrong business.

**********

Because Diamond is shipping to us from back east, I can no longer get regular reorders as quickly.

If you remember, I dropped the 2 day direct shipment of product a while back, because of shipping costs. But if I made orders on Mondays, I still got the product about 10 days later.

That is now expanding to something like 15 days later, and that's just too long.

So I'm going back to the 2 day ship, which I always liked better anyway and only dropped when I realized that I could save a couple hundred dollars a month.

*********

There is an interesting interview in John Gottberg's Blog with Gavin McMichael.(Owner of The Blacksmith, and Bourbon St., and Marz Bistro.) (I'm sorry, I tried to do a link, but botched it somehow....)

First off, I should say I know nothing about the restaurant business, and have always thought they probably have a completely different set of problems from a retail store.

McMichael makes the case for having multiple restaurants in town:

“Three places are cheaper to run than one.

“This is one of the oldest strategies in the business. It’s so hard for the owner-operator to make any money on just one restaurant. It’s much easier to pull a little from several, and to spread the costs and demands of staff and inventory.”

I had pretty much the exact same reasoning when I opened stores in the Mountain View Mall, Sisters, and Redmond. Unfortunately, for me, it didn't work out that way. Each store took on it's own identity, had it's own needs and requirements -- and most damaging -- each wanted the same first rate material that the other stores needed and there wasn't enough quality resources to go around. (Materials, inventory, employees -- and ultimately, money.)

The thing that damaged me the most was that I was a horrible delegater, and didn't have the systems in place that could make up for that fact.

The quality control of my business -- my hands on making sure everything was working -- spiraled out of my hands. I found running four stores not just four times harder, but sixteen times harder.

My own feeling these days is to either stay small, get bigger in one location, or get really, really big.

I think medium sized chains -- in the three to eight range -- have all the requirements and costs of a bigger chain, but none of the advantages of a smaller store.

The second thing McMichael seems to imply is that Bendites just aren't willing to pay for quality. The high cost of good food.

I don't doubt this. But I also suspect it's pretty much true everywhere. He mentions trying Eugene, but then again Eugene is twice the size metro area, with a big four year university, an interstate, and other metro areas a short distance away.

But, yeah. Bend demands the big city offerings, without in some ways having the population or the demographic or the money to really reward that.

Everyone who opens a business in Bend should be told that "Poverty with a View" isn't just a funny saying. It's true.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the idea that they could "cut" 35,000.00 a month in "expenses". I mean, that's a huge number. I suppose they must be including "cost of goods" in that number, because I simply can 't believe their overhead was that high.

Also, very telling, is that they Expanded in 2008, taking on all kinds of debt.

O.K. I could understand expanding in 2006, maybe even 2007, but by 2008 the handwriting was on the wall to anyone who was paying any attention.

I think this is just one of those cases where a couple decided to have the "perfect" store, and it just wasn't viable.

It's probably time I write a blog I've been thinking about -- the "Perfect" is the enemy of the "Functional" when it comes to stores. Perfection is something you work toward, you don't try to start out as.....because no matter how much planning you've done, you aren't going to get it perfect at first, or ever.

And....no matter how much money you spend.

Meanwhile:

Oddly enough, this closing of a store right after the Christmas season is more unusual than not.

Contrary to what might be expected, stores tend to close during times you'd think they'd try to stay open.

Stores tend to cluster-close just before the beginning of a busy season for a very simple reason. Because that's when they signed the original lease contract. (If they had any brains.)

I think this barrier is breaking down a bit, though, because so many contracts are being loosened; there are probably a number of leases that are going month to month. So it's possible we'll see more closings.

Rent "deals" are mostly under the table, as far as I can tell -- the official rent stays higher than what the store actually pays. This allows the owner of the building to show higher rent to future tenants, while cutting a break for the current tenants, I suppose. And allows the building owner to change his mind at any time. This is all anecdotal, from talking to other store owners, and I can't be sure it's widespread, but it makes sense. (I negotiated for a 10% decrease, which is looking kind of wimpy right now....)

The six months of January through June, are slower in Bend because so much of our business comes from tourism, and July, August and December are by far the most important months.

I've been telling people that I don't actually believe rents have gone down enough -- despite the common perception. And even if they have moderated to some extent, most rent contracts include yearly ('inflation hedge') step increases which can quickly wipe any advantages. I suppose in comparison to what rents COULD BE, it's an improvement, but in comparison to what they USED TO BE, not really that much of an improvement.

As long as vacancy rates stay so low downtown, I don't suppose the owners have much incentive to lower rents -- though a 35% turnover in just two years ought to give them pause. (See the Downtown Comings and Goings list....)

But you know what, George Lucas and Company? Give it a freakin' rest. It ISN'T the modern ODYSSEY.

I wasted two hours last night watching a bunch of professors trying to connect all the mythological dots with Star Wars -- and the Bible, for god's sake, (I like that -- the Bible, for god's sake. heh,) and FAUST and GREEK MYTHOLOGY and so on.

All I could think was -- every story ever told has elements of the above. It's called -- story-telling.

And let Joseph Campbell rest easy in his grave. Have you ever actually tried to read A Hero With A Thousand Faces? Turgid as all get out and in my opinion of doubtful validity. Campbell may be talked about as a Jungian, but there was a bunch of fraudish Freud in there as well.

I loved the interviews Campbell did with Bill Moyer, but those were done years later and maybe he just came to his senses.

But, it really is getting kind of annoying to keep comparing Star Wars so seriously with world literature. If it's really valid -- and much of it probably is -- you don't have to try so hard.

(I suppose I could say the same about the Beatles and world music -- I love the Beatles. I really, really do.)

Monday, December 27, 2010

I'm going to try to step up my observations about the local scene, now that the Wandering Eye has wandered off, taken it's eye off the ball, so to speak. I'm in no way plugged in politically; I only know what I read in the local news sources, and compare that to my life-long experiences in Bend and my 30 year business experience in downtown Bend.

**********

I see that the city of Bend of still delusional about Juniper Ridge. While the recent zone change to "light industrial" is exactly what I think they should be pursuing at this time, they still couldn't help but add this little nugget of Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds...:

"Once completed, the development might resemble something like NorthWest Crossing on Bend's west side, but on a much larger scale. Mitchell has even described Juniper Ridge as sort of a "city within a city." The Bulletin.

It doesn't seem to me like NorthWest Crossing has proven it's commercial viability, yet. Much less the much larger Juniper Ridge plans.

On a much smaller scale, Northwest Crossing seems to be viable as a sub-division, (does Bend really need to encourage subsidized sub-divisions?) but I see way too much office and retail space empty over there.

The possibility of a university is so long term as to be non-existent. I mean, it could happen 20 or 30 years from now, and they could point out their plans in the year 2010 and say, "See? We planned ahead." But, really. Not much chance of that happening anytime soon.

Well, let's see how quickly new businesses come to town to scoop up the newly available industrial park, shall we? Hopefully, not taking away jobs from another local community, like Les Schwab, or simply moving from one part of town to the other because of tax breaks.

First it was the bubble bloggers. As far as I can tell, they all left town, except Quimby, who was in the store the other day and asking me where everyone went. Ironic, I guess, if the downturn we were all warning about also managed to shut them down.

A couple of days ago, one of the three sites I visit every day to get my comic news, shut down. Journalistica guy was fired by the Comics Journal.

And then Bruce announced that he was shutting down The Wandering Eye. Since he is about the only mainstream, pragmatic liberal voice in the town, this will be a huge loss.

The Baker City connection is looking shaky, though I have no idea what's going on over there. I enjoyed Keeneye's observations about opening a new restaurant, but it sounds like she's got more important things to worry about.

My tiny blogroll on this site consists of my Pegasus Books connection, and Linda's two blogs -- which she has let die.

Over on the Pegasus Books site, I have a longer local blogroll, but by my count about 5 out of 12 are completely inactive. On the professional blogroll, about 4 of the sites are dead.

I'm kind of finicky about what I read online. I find my favorites, and then check them out constantly. It's rare that I actually add to my favorites, and even rarer that any of them become a habit.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

I seem to be immune to the charms of video games. I mean, I must really be missing some gene that appreciates them.

I've checked out World of Warcraft, we have a new Wii, and...nothing. Not interested. Todd and Sarah played a couple of hours of Wii last night, and it seemed....I don't know, pointless. I'd much rather read a book.

I think the Quest games or the shooter games seem like a giant waste of time. I like the strategic games a bit better, but I like them crude. Hell, I like Solitaire.

It's the same shrug -- what's the appeal? -- feeling I get with "Reality" T.V. Totally boring to me -- I've tried The Great Race, Survivor, and so on, and again...all I see is a bunch of narcissistic people doing pointless things.

Same thing with situation comedies, though some of the very best I can watch if I have to. But I can't get over the artificiality of the situations. Most soap opera T.V. also bug me -- E.R. or NYPD Blue type shows.

I like genre T.V. Mysteries and S.F., just as I do in my reading.

I can watch hours of junk T.V. like Myth Busters and those lousy history channels programs on Rome and Egypt and all that Alexander the Great and Caesar crap. (Most of them really aren't all that well done or telling me anything I don't already know.)

And I can watch C-Span Book T.V. all day long.

I don't know. Maybe I just want my entertainment to have some content. Video games and reality T.V. seem contentless to me.

I woke up this morning with a cold, the first one in a couple of years.

Weirdly, I knew it was coming. Linda thinks that I actually schedule illness for when I can afford the time to be sick.

My life had in place all the pre-requisites. Exhaustion after a long stressful stretch. A period of looming downtime (three days). And I no longer need to be quite at the top of my game.

I figured the first random bug that came along would get me.

***********

My son Todd and his girlfriend Sarah were home for the weekend, and cooked us a fabulous Christmas meal. Linda's brother Dave came, and my Dad. After opening gifts, we watched the extended AVATAR. Dad made it through about 1 hour and proclaimed he'd be dreaming about big blue people. Dave hadn't seen it before, and I enjoyed watching it without the 3-D. (And thankful that I went with the biggest screen I could buy). Linda saw it for about the umpteenth time -- she loves this movie.

It was great to have a family Christmas, in some ways our first after the passing of Mom and then Tina. I hope we can make some kind of tradition of it. When it's just Linda and I, we don't bother much with all the accoutrements.

**********

Business was good this Christmas season. I don't want to say anymore until the end of the month, because this last week is important and I don't want to jinx it. I shall give a full accounting -- but, well, it's looking good. (See, I can be positive when warranted!)

I'm going to bop to the store to vacuum, because it really got a bit too much at the end, mostly little pebbles all over the carpet that would roll under my feet, but I never seemed to have the free half hour to scoop them up.

Then on to doing the monthly orders -- as soon as Todd and Sarah take off. Once again, I'm thankful that this 8 or 10 hour job isn't that onerous to me. I can even do the first part while watching football.

Friday, December 24, 2010

I dreamed I was working in this vast warehouse, and the employees were throwing Christmas bulbs at each other, seeing how far we could throw them and try to catch them without breaking. The bulbs are exploding all over the place and we're having a grand time.

I see a little kid -- about five or six -- watching from the sidelines, and I gently underhand throw a small bulb at him.

It EXPLODES -- shattering water and glass all over the kid, who's now transformed into a little baby. He's completely drenched in water and crying loudly but otherwise unharmed.

It's the bosses baby. So now I'm afraid I'm going to be fired.

Scene Change.

We're in the foreman's office above the factory for the Christmas party. I go into the next room where there is a toilet, and when I flush it, it overflows and overflows, and fills the floor and the mattress on the floor and I'm thinking: "Do I say anything?"

Just then, we're called down to the floor of the factory. While we've been upstairs the factory has been completely emptied, except for some tables where the workers line up to get their LAST paycheck...

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Every time I replace a classic book, it seems like the cover price of the newest printing is at least 1.00 over the last time I ordered. I mean, this can be in a period of just months, usually not much more than a year.

I'm talking about trade paperbacks, mostly -- which are the oversized paperbacks. So they'll run 12.00 one day, 14.00 the next quarter. 16.00 the next year.

Mass market paperbacks are trending to 8.99 on the regular size, and 9.99 on the tall books (I hate the tall books -- so unnecessary.)

***********

With major comic shops folding all over the U.S.A. there is a lot of talk about 'Diversity.'

But, methinks they don't really understand diversity. Diversity in comic shops doesn't mean adding a couple of Dark Horse or Image titles to your Marvel/DC mix. It means carrying every type of comic you can possibly afford, in every format.

Diversity in game stores doesn't mean adding a couple of Settlers of Catan boardgames to your Magic and Warhammer inventory. It means carrying R.P.G.'s, and most of the major boardgames. (Games may not be the best example for me -- because of space and time concerns, I sort of limit my reach.)

Diversity to new book stores, doesn't mean adding another line of coffee, and another couch. It means going outside the best-sellers and looking for idiosyncratic books that no one else has.

But most of all, DIVERSITY means -- carrying all of the above, plus toys and anime and t-shirts and art books. You know, being me. Anyway, I find that it's working.

To me diversity means carrying all kinds of product that doesn't immediately sell. It's the mix that counts; sometimes the non-sellers are what makes the seller sell.

I see advice columns all the time telling small business owners to be ruthlessly efficient in their inventory.

Wrong. Doubly wrong for smaller stores. That may work for Target or Walmart, but it's not what people expect from you. Customers want to see the unusual, the strange, the new, the old, the offbeat, the best-sellers, and they want to browse around your store and not see exactly the same ten best-sellers they just saw at Fred Meyer.

But I know that I set out on this course a full 20 years ago, when sports cards collapsed and then comics collapsed. I swore I would never let one or two product lines dictate my very existence ever again.

**********

This may slightly contradict what I just said, but I've been thinking something this Christmas that seems to be more true than ever.

There is more material for sale in the world than ever before, but at the same time --- there is less ready availability.

Now, many of you internet buyers will dispute this, but to me, having to get on the internet and search for the product and order it and give them my credit card number and wait for the product to ship -- is NOT "ready availability."

Ready availability is being able to call a store, find that they have it in stock, and go get it.

Anyway, this is the very essence of the "Long Tail Theory" of merchandising. Just about everything your little heart desires is available somewhere. But most every thing your little heart desires isn't available most everywhere. If you get the distinction.

When the mass market started killing me with their prices, my response was to carry the same stuff, perhaps higher priced but as close as I could get, plus I'd order the stuff the big guys didn't have. In other words, I had to do both. The way I did this, was to carry small amounts of everything and depend on my ability to order more and get it in quickly.

My response to the internets vast ability to carry everything, is not to specialize even more, but to try to carry as many different kinds of things as possible.

I guess I'm trying to have something customers want, even if I don't have everything customers want.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Amazing how often I make the same business mistakes over and over again.

The difference in longevity is that I make slightly less of them.

**********

Funny. I don't even bother to read the news reports about how Christmas sales are doing. Because of my experience, I just don't believe 1.) they know, and 2.) if anyone did know they'd be telling them the real scoop.

Maybe the quarterly earnings will say something, for those who know how to read between the lines.

But mostly, every store is different.

**********

As I mentioned yesterday, I'm a tad tuckered out. After getting the comics put away, Linda called and needed some VISA rolls for her store, so I left Cameron in charge and went over. Then I decided to drive home, fell onto my office futon, and slept for half an hour. Got up and went back to work.

Wish I could do that every day.

**********

I went crazy on boardgames, because I was afraid of running out. I'm probably going to end up with multiple copies of the big three: Ticket to Ride, Settlers of Catan, and Carcassonne, and most of their expansions.

Also went a little nuts with Small World and Dominion and Munckin and a bunch of others.

All good games it won't take me much of 2011 to sell.

Overall, I'm as stocked with the best selling product as I ever am, even after a busy week, because I made sure I immediately reordered. I'm not counting until the end of the year whether I overdid it, but I do know the store feels and looks good.

O.K. I admit this is wimpy of me, and there is probably nothing more boring. But I've run into a bit of roadblock with this going to work an hour early and staying an hour late.

I'm tired.

It's not just the hours -- lots and lots of people, and I'm doing more selling pitches (because they work this time of year) and talking to everyone and -- about 4:00 yesterday I looked at a regular customer who I knew would forgive me and said, "I can't say another word. Go...."

Give me a choice between working everyday for days on end but for only a few hours, or working for only a few days but with long hours, I'll pick the former every time. Unlike my wife, who would much rather do the latter.

I think it's a matter of stamina. I've noticed before that I seem to run out steam on long trips, for instance, when other people are still raring to go. I came home last night and crashed.

Oh, well. Only three days to go. I'm going to moderate to half an hour early, and half an hour late --unless it seems busy.

I don't want to jinx things, so I'll just say that business is better than I expected so far -- and in talking to other merchants, that doesn't seem to be generally true.

I'm selling the hell out of boardgames, and I've gone out of my way NOT to run out of any important product, or if I run out to have it back in the store the next day. (Unlike that stupid USA Today headline that said stores are running out of product -- maybe the mass market is running out, but not THIS store!)

Onward and upward. I'll no doubt have all of January and February to recover....

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Well, I mean, this is more like being in the batter's box -- trying to stay loose, staying in the moment, watching the ball. Trying to hit it out of the park.

I can be a pretty good salesman when I try, and when my mood is right. So I'm spending a whole lot of time trying to regulate my mood. Staying loose and relaxed and cheerful.

I made yet another game order, because I realized that if I sold more than 1 or 2 of each of the major games per day, I could be sold out by Christmas Eve. This will be the 4th game order this season, when I intended to do only one, possibly two.

My instincts are to keep pounding away at whatever is selling, and boardgames have been selling.

I'm trying very hard to keep expectations down, or -- more to the point -- not have any expectations, and just go with the flow.

One deal I made with myself. I would go to work an hour earlier, and stay an hour later for the last six days before Christmas. If I could make, say, 50.00 an hour, that would almost pay for the last couple of game shipments.

I could wish that not so much depended on a single week like this, but this is what Christmas has become and instead of fighting it, I'm trying to really make sure I'm ready to make the most of it.

Monday, December 20, 2010

I'm getting lots of new people in the door, not only from out of town, but locals.

And they express surprise at what Pegasus Books offers.

I would submit, any of you who read this blog and haven't been in yet. You might be surprised by what Pegasus Books offers.

*********

Sexual intercourse began/ In nineteen sixty-three/ (Which was rather late for me)/ Between the end of the Chatterley ban/ And the Beatles' first LP."

--Philip Larkin, "Annus Mirabilis" (Snagged from the Shelf Awareness blog) from High Windows.

**********

Watched Southland Tales the other day, and for the first half -- my reaction was pretty much -- WTF? WTF?

Then there was a nifty musical number, sexy girls in spandex and explosions, and I started digging it, man. Reminded me of New Wave S.F. from the 70's -- if anyone remembers that; Spinrad, Moorcock, Ballard.

A weird, ambitious mess which was kind of fun, in the end.

***********

Caught the last three hours of Cleopatra last night. Hard to imagine a Hollywood movie spending money so ridiculously nowadays, I could have done with less parades and more action. Glacial pacing. Over the top acting.

A chubby superstar. I kind of liked it. Also hard to imagine nowadays.

**********

Since you are all so patient listening to my bitching, I probably should mention that we have pulled even with last year in sales for Christmas. Which would be a most excellent result, indeed.

I don't expect that to hold to the end of the month, but it's a great 2/3rds point.

So much depends on the last five days before Christmas....however....

***********

Back when I first started writing this blog, I wondered if there would be a repeat of that time in the 80's when the rest of the country seems to be recovering from a recession, while Bend is still mired in the pits. It's a sucky feeling, let me tell you. Hard to explain to out of town friends that the local economy hasn't picked up, when places as close as Portland and Eugene seem to be booming.

I think we're about to re-enter that phase.

**********

So City of Bend, how's the "Hoping for No Snow" plan workin' out for ya?

**********

Took a leap of faith, and made three more reorders this morning, which should arrive around Wednesday. Mostly evergreen stuff that we can always sell, but beyond my original budget.

Been feeling good about this Christmas, probably because I went into it expected so very little.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

A consensus seems to be emerging about comics and comic shops; and it isn't pleasant.

Maybe I should say, "The cat has been let out of the bag."

Here's what usually happens. A retailer timidly pipes up and says, "Gosh. You know, I love comics and all, but sales have been a bit down, you know, and, ah, is anyone else feeling that?"

And sometimes there are a few equally timid agreements, "Yeah. We're feeling a bit of that."

And then, almost invariably, a couple retailers will barge in and say, "Why we're having our best year ever! Our sales are ever higher!" (Intimating, you know -- "what wrong with YOU.")

Which stops all discussion, instantly.

Never mind that often those guys proclaiming their greatness are most often newer stores who are still in a growth stage -- all consideration of the financial climate stops cold.

There has been a confluence of news lately that seems to have blown the lid off the kettle.

NUMBER ONE:

The announcement that DC was rolling prices on all comics to 2.99; and that Marvel was going to follow suit on "some" of their comics. Which seems to be an acknowledgment that the 3.99 price was a bridge too far.

This announcement was followed by a realization that this change would take place during the slowest part of the year for comics (January and February) and would mean a 25% drop in profit on each comic sold.

A prominent creator and former publisher, Josh Blaylock of Devil's Due, wrote a column that pointed out the dangers and cried, "Watch out below!' It was a bit self-serving and perhaps a tad bitter, but he has a point.

NUMBER TWO:

The news that several large and prominent comic shops were having trouble. I've mentioned Comic Relief, and how influential it was to my thinking at Pegasus.

NUMBER THREE:

The figures released that showed that for 3 out of the last 4 months, the best-selling comic in the country hadn't topped 100,000 copies. Which ten years ago, would have been inconceivable.

NUMBER FOUR:

The overall bad news in the book trade as a whole. There were many comic people who had placed great hope that the mass market would do a better job than the direct comic shop market in selling non-superhero comics, but with manga sales dropping like a rock, there is some reassessment going on.

NUMBER FIVE:

Digital projects announced. The indy creators are now turning to the hope of digital comics for the future. I think this is equally foolish as their hopes for the mass market, but I guess we'll see. Hard to see how the whole comic book structure survives without comic shops...

NUMBER SIX:

And probably the real game breaker, was a recent column from an extremely influential and well-known comic retailer, Brian Hibbs of Comic Experience in San Francisco, talking about his concerns for the future of comics. He focuses on the short-term tactics of Marvel and DC to focus on one-shots, mini-series, and especially Mega - Events. (Ironically, Marvel announced only a day or two later that they were through taking a 'breather' on Events, and were planning some big ones.)

I waited for the inevitable backlash to all this downbeat news-- and as far as I can see, it doesn't seem to be happening. There just seems to be an acknowledgment on the part of most in the industry that, yes, we live in 'challenging' times (to use a wimpy term.)

Hibbs admits that his sales have been down 17 out of the last 19 months. And no one seems to think that's unusual.

Anyway, I too have noticed that comic sales are struggling -- and it's nice to have some company. I'm more diversified than most comic shops, so I perhaps haven't been hurt quite as much. It's looking like I'll come out the end of the year with a profit in the bank, all bills paid, and the store fully inventoried -- which is my overall goal.

I, personally, believe the local and national economy are taking more of a toll on my business than comics themselves, but that could be an individual situation.

But I'm not going to be the killjoy who will point out that I'm doing fine, because all the above factors are in play and need to be talked about.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

I was sitting in my office, drinking a glass of wine or two (a rare occurrence, these days...) and staring at my ceiling fan, and thinking about potentialities and actual use.

I can pull a little chain and that fan will start spinning. Sure, it's winter and why would I do that? But I don't do it through most of the summer, either. And yet, the potentiality is always there, even if I don't use it 99% of the time. It looks good, it could be useful, but really -- does it really replace the air-conditioner?

I'm sitting at my computer, and I use maybe 1% of of it's potentiality -- but that 1% uses an incredible amount of my time.

So -- the Kindle.

I can see myself buying it, but will I use it? Or will I fall back to reading books as usual? Will other people buy it, only to let it sit on the desk? Or will it take off, in a truly useful way?

I read that Amazon will have the actual ability to know how much or how little you actually read of a book you download. Never mind the slightly Big Brother aspects of that notion; but it points to how much we all want to have the capability of things, but don't always actually use them.The technology for picture phones existed for decades, but no one really wanted them.

I was talking to a librarian yesterday, and I said, "Gosh, no one seems to talk about the impact of e-books on libraries."

"Well, we can loan out an e-book, too. E-books still cost money, you know. "

"And then, when the loan-out period is over, the book simply disappears," chimed in her husband.

"Wow. Is that a good thing? I mean, that means that anyone could do that -- Amazon, the government, ...."

I still swing back and forth on the potentialities of the e-book. Half the time, I think that we bookstores are bemoaning our fate a little too much. Other times, like when I look at what happened to anime and manga in my store (the little darlings are pirating these off the internet to an almost exclusive rate), I think we might be all underestimating it.

In a sense, I've positioned Pegasus Books to be something like a Gift Store. People wander into gift stores and see something they like -- and for that you need tourist traffic, walk-in traffic, and maybe a bit of inventory that draws regulars.

The more "destination" you are, the more I think you'll be hit by 1.) the mass market. 2.) the internet and 3.) e-books. I'd submit that Barnes and Noble and Borders meet these criteria more than your small independent bookstore.

I sold a bunch of books yesterday to people who didn't know the book they bought even existed. "Night of the Living Trekkies." "Dick and Jane and Vampires." "The Melancholy Death of Oyster Boy." That kind of thing.

I can keep that up all day, because there are no end of quirky books, and there is no substitute for stumbling across them and picking them up and reading a few paragraphs and declaring, "I must have this...."

Friday, December 17, 2010

I've had several inspirations for my store's layout over the years. One of my major influences was a fellow named Rory Root who had a store in Berkeley called, Comic Relief. Whenever I posted on the Comic Book Industry Alliance, he was always especially helpful and considerate. (Which isn't always true -- there can be a tad bit of group think and one-ups-man-ship over there, just like any established small group. It's a great resource, if you can cut through the egos. Including mine.)

Anyway, I struggled for a long time with the idea of bringing in independent comics. Think of a movie theater trying to show independent films. It's a big decision. Obviously, not as lucrative as the tentpole movies, but then again, no one else is doing it.

I finally decided to go for it, partly because of stories about Rory's store, and partly because of Scott's store down in Ashland, More Fun. (I figured if Scott could do it in a small tourist town, so could I.)

I'm glad I did it. It hasn't been easy, but I think it's been helpful to the longterm survival of the store.

I don't think I'm being egotistical, though, to believe that not many other people running my business could pull it off. It has taken years of experience, as well as the ongoing intention of carrying this kind of material. It isn't always obviously profitable in the short term.

I've built it up slowly, taking advantage of every opportunity. And I'm proud of it.

Rory passed away awhile back, and his family took over the store. Apparently, they ran it like a business -- straight into the ground.

I've known for a long time, that I could run this business very differently, and perhaps even make more money, but I wouldn't be happy doing it and being happy in my job seems just as important as the money -- more so, the longer you do it. (Ah, hem -- best minimum wage job a middle aged guy ever had.....?)

But if you go for the money and you don't know what you're doing, you're likely to get the opposite reaction from your customers. If you draw the wrong conclusions, which I believe most people probably would, you'll accelerate the downward spiral by focusing on the best-sellers even more, until eventually, nothing is selling.

You can't always assign a direct dollar to dollar value on your inventory -- sometimes you carry material to, well, sell OTHER stuff. Hard to explain, but it's more an overall fabric that you can't pull too many threads from without it all falling apart.

Comic shops seems to be very connected to the personality of their owners, which makes it hard to reproduce success. It's a bit of an object lesson for me, and as I near the end of my career, I'm trying to make my store more inventory than personality based in it's focus -- my having employees is on purpose, because the store isn't really successful in some ways until it can sell stuff no matter who's running it. (As long as the keepers are doing a moderately good job...)

The article about Comic Relief's demise makes it sound like it's going down because Rory was too focused on non-selling product. My guess is that, in fact, the opposite happened. The new owners got too focused on what what they thought was best-selling product, and in some ways lost the whole point of Comic Relief and Rory's business philosophy. Which, while it was probably always challenging to survive, was it's very reason for being.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

So interesting that Bruce has chosen this week to point out the Bend east side/west side differences, in the Wandering Eye column. (As illustrated by the U.S. Census.)

Because I was about to come at the same subject from the opposite direction.

No doubt there are many difference between the two sides.

But you know what? Check out the foreclosure maps and you'll see an amazingly even distribution of red dots -- east, west, north or south.

And there also seems to be just as many, if not more, crime stories associated with the Westside of Bend, and even -gasp -- the Northwest side.

In fact, is seems like the Northwest crimes are the more deadly.

I'm guessing the financial stress is pretty widespread in Bend, and distributed alike between rich and poor and the middle class.

************

Funny thing about Facebook. The Pegasus page feels more like it's owned by people who know Pegasus, rather than by Pegasus itself. I mean, anyone could comment on my blog, too. Or on the Pegasus site. But they seem to prefer the Facebook. And there are potentially 30 years worth of those folks.

Maybe because it was started by my three young employees, or that there are more options to interact. Kind of cool that it seems to have a life of its own.

**********

It is so cool to be selling stuff that I have on hand all year, and suddenly there is an actual demand for them.

Like I said, Christmas is what sales should be like ALL year, you know?

Interesting documentary on P.B.S. last night about the artist's renaissance in Paris between 1905 and 1930.

The idea that one could live on one dollar a week. In Paris. Or the little nugget that after being rejected by the "Academy" (as had the Impressionists before them, and so on...) the Fauvists (Wild Beasts -- I want to start an art movement where I'm called a "Wild Beast") in their own turn rejected Cubism. Hard to imagine anyone being rejected by the art community for being too out there nowadays. Maybe if you can accomplish that, you've succeeded.

And that necessary ingredient of cheap rent for an 'art' community. Downtown Bend has definitely lost that, and I don't think it's coming back...

(I think the best possibility of a bohemian conclave would be down in the cluster of out of the way stores near the Silver Moon. Can't much more out there than a Roller Derby shop.)

**********

Got irked at a woman and daughter who spent half an hour of mine and Cameron's time acting all 'helpless' at the nerdworld, and then only bought a 2.00 item. At a time when we had a store full of people and were trying to get our comics put away. Ten days before Christmas. So unfair to our enterprise.

I stomped around the store for a couple of minutes after they left. Then realized I needed to give myself at time out, and went downstairs to cool off.

**********

Had a dream last night where I was trying to write an important check and couldn't get it written, and tearing it out and ripping it up and starting over and getting it wrong again. Similar to the dreams I sometimes have of just not quite being able to complete dialing in a phone number....

**********

I'm down to my last copy of Carcassonne, the one major game I didn't stock up on. It was an oversight because I was feeling pressured and hassled by the game rep, who was a substitute to my usual guy. I think that is the last time I'm going to let that happen. The next time a salesman of any kind gives me the bum's rush, I'm hanging up and calling someone else.

(And yes, I'm aware of the irony compared to the statement above about the customer -- but I'll I'm saying is, there needs to be consideration on both sides...)

This oversight has pretty much nailed down a final reorder before Christmas.

**********

The east accounts are complaining that their invoices haven't been posted by Thursday morning. Since we western accounts don't get ours until late Saturday or early Sunday, it's hard to be sympathetic.

I was commenting to Cameron that I've never made an issue out of it, because I was afraid that Diamond's solution would be to make everyone wait until Saturday, and what's the point of that?

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

I can take a kind of pleasure in virtuous austerity for weeks at a time, but let's face it -- buying stuff is more fun.

I hate to say it, but one of the pleasures of owning a store is being able to peruse the catalogs and select material and buy it and wait for it to show up. The anticipation of opening boxes of merchandise isn't all that different than Christmas morning for kids.

What you get is never exactly what you expected. You may be disappointed, or delightfully surprised. You may get a sinking feeling of -- "Oh, oh....I'll never sell that..." or you may get the satisfaction of -- "Wow. That's really cool. I need to get more...."

Maybe that's why people become shopkeepers. They get to keep that feeling all year long.

Of course, it's a terrible temptation, and I've seen many a shopkeeper over ordering to a ridiculous extent.

I try to keep my ordering to a slightly sinful level -- but never a completely crushing level.

Not really. I enjoy the activity. It's the way the whole year should be.

Today is the start of the Christmas shopping season. Or at least, it should be.

It's a beautiful day out, white crisp snow and blue skies.

My beard is long enough and white enough, that I could be kind of a Santa Claus. ("You don't fool me! There is no Sanity Clause!") A very grumpy looking Santa Claus. ("You don't look grumpy!" Linda says.)

We're having guests this Christmas, so we may actually have to do the Christmasy thing at home. One thing about retail, it really does drain the spirit of the seasons out a bit -- at least until Christmas Eve.

On Christmas Eve, as I close the store and select a few last minute gifts out of what's left over, I feel the tension drop away, and I look forward to a whole day of relaxation.

But that moment is still ten working days away, and until then -- I can't help it -- I get excited by the possibilities. I try to keep my expectations down, but ...it's Christmas season.

Christmas falling on a Saturday is kind of an odd occurrence. Just about any other day of the week, it would've made buying any inventory for the store on the last week pretty hard to do. Two days ships and holiday and weather delays and the weekend interval, make the timing a little iffy, so I generally skip the last week for orders and go with what I have.

This time, I can easily make an order on Monday or even Tuesday and have a very good chance of having material by the day before Christmas....

It's an extra temptation.

Just what I need -- opportunity and an excuse to buy stuff....

**********

I'm in the middle of reading my 52nd book of the year, so I've accomplished my one book a week goal.

I'm upping the ante for next year. I want to read 6 books a month. I'm hoping the goal itself will pull me away from sitting in front of the T.V. and computer quite so much.

I'm also setting a goal of reading a couple of graphic novels at the store per week. Which will mean starting over with a whole bunch of series in which I read the first one or two books, and then didn't finish. Y- the Last Man, Walking Dead, Fables....etc.

I loved what I read of these stories, but always seem to get waylaid to a new story before the old stories are finished -- I've never quite gotten used to the sequential nature of comics. It's not my natural inclination. On the other hand, if I wait until the series is finished, it can be intimidating to look at 10 or 15 books to read. (Unlike what non-comic readers might think, I don't believe reading graphic novel reading is 'easier'. It just requires a slightly different approach, and a different part of the brain.)

It's like when I go see a sub-titled movie -- at first I'm conscious of reading, but if the movie is any good, by the end I'm not even aware of it. Comics are the same way for me. Possibly because I was in my 30's before I started reading them again, it's not completely natural.

Yet, when I'm finished, it's exhilarating to read a great graphic novel.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

A game order to stock up on the big games, Settlers of Catan, Ticket to Ride, and Carcassonne, hopefully so I don't run out.

I'm leaving open the possibility of one more game, one more book, and one more comic order within the next week or so -- if business just booms, or if we get too many spot shortages of the best-sellers.

By holding off until now, I've still got some money to spend, and can justify spending much of January budget (since I won't be ordering much during the 'doing inventory' period. There is still a 50/50 chance I'll break-even this year, which considering that I've been pulling money out for the last three months for my retirement fund, means I will have actually turned a profit.(A profit not counting my basic take-home pay....)

I sure wish it didn't come down to the last 10 days. Makes me nervous, like all our eggs are in one basket. Still, we're probably doing slightly better than I expected. Then again, I expected very very little.

Monday, December 13, 2010

When all was said and done, I ordered all but 17 of the books on my list.

I've been keeping lists of books I see online, or in other bookstores, with the intent of someday ordering them.

The actual replacement of sold books came to about 35% of the total books ordered. In most cases, I'd prefer this to be more like 80% of the books I order. But it's Christmas, and until this order, I'd probably not ordered more than 10% off the wish lists over the last three or four orders, so this was a bit of catch-up, clearing the decks, and getting Christmas product at the same time.

I don't know why I pick certain books -- they just look good to me, or appeal to me.

Awhile back, I was talking about having a more systematic method of choosing books, comparing best-seller lists, best-of lists, and so on.

But I keep falling back on my quirky method of buying what appeals to me. I have limited budget for books, and by the time I've completed my ordering of the books I know I want, there isn't a whole lot of room for best-seller types.

Is it foolish of me to skip THE HELP, and instead order, THE BEAR WENT OVER THE MOUNTAIN, by William Kotzwinkle? Probably. But opening a bookstore is foolish in the first place, and I might as well be consistently foolish to the end.

It's not like I'm depriving anyone of THE HELP, which they can find in stacks at Barnes and Noble. But would they stumble across THE BEAR WENT....?

Well, I enjoy Kotzwinkle, I love the concept of the book, the cover looks really cool. Whereas, THE HELP, looks to me like another socially heartwarming book written by a white woman about black servants. (I could be wrong, but really -- I like the idea of a real Bear on Wall Street, more than another Hallmark moment....) I know, I know. It sounds like a good book, but it just doesn't grab me.

Finding room for all these books will, as usual, be the real problem. But it's the direction the store is going in, and I'll make room.

Well, more like, sorta kinda miss us, as in "Whatever happened to so and so, I used to like going in there...."

I've started to explain why I think no market can really hold up at previous levels without the presence of brick and mortar stores with one phrase: "Out of sight, Out of mind."

Which might seem ridiculous, considering the omniscient presence of the Internet. I mean, EVERYTHING is there, probably cheaper, and only a button push away from showing up on your door.

Still -- I'll stick to my observation. I can't totally explain it, but 30 years of retail has shown me over and over again, that the less physical presence of a particular brand, the less it sells.

Sure you can get just about any brand of sports card online, cheaper. But frankly -- who cares anymore?

I think the air will just slowly go out of the tire -- so slowly no one will understand it until it's too late. Some will prosper, but most...will not. I think no market can truly do well once it becomes dominated by the online sales.

Books, music, games, toys -- everything will make less overall than they did before the advent.

Of course, the best solution is to have a mix of everything: small stores, big stores, and online.

But will they be smart enough to understand that?

Nope.

Not until it's too late.

I know that everyone will disagree with this -- they'll think it's a ridiculous proclamation.

But do you want to bet? I'm saying that the overall sales numbers per capita in today's dollars will be less in 20 years than it is today. Not the amount of material -- there will probably be more of it than ever, and therein lies the problem. Because so much of it will be discounted -- even free. I'll refine that further -- there will be less overall PROFIT per purveyor than before.

But online is ether -- it only has a physical presence in our minds. The product exists when we think of it, when we go to look for it, when we push the button to shop.

And that, my friends, is not going to be anywhere near as stimulative as actually having the product right in front of you.

I just think people overall are underestimating the importance of brick and mortar stores, and they may not realize it until it's too late. It would relatively easy to keep brick and mortars around compared to trying to bring them back once they're gone.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

I know that writing about budgeting is probably the most boring thing I do here.

It's probably the most important thing I do at the store.

I'm at one of those decision points, that might make the difference between earning a profit and not earning a profit at Christmas.

Here's the situation.

In about 5 days, I will be in the January billing period. My budget isn't lavish for January, but it isn't skimpy either.

Meanwhile, I've pretty much spent my entire December budget.

So wait five days, right?

Generally, I find if I can just fight the temptation to start spending next months money early, that I'll be glad a did about this time next month. Easy to borrow off the future, tough to pay it back.

Then again, there are only about 14 days left in the Christmas shopping season. If I wait the full 5 days, it spills into next weekend for shipping, which mean I won't get product until 5 days before Christmas.

If I make my orders today, it ships tomorrow, gets here on Wednesday, and I have the product for the last 10 days before Christmas.

Then again, if I wait five more days, I'll have one last chance to get those special orders that might come in, or to replace spot shortages just before Christmas.

This may sound contradictory, but I've learned that I both: need product more in slow times, but need order product less in slow times. Especially, when everyone takes a breather after Christmas. It's traditional, almost, to sell off as much remaining inventory as possible in the week after Christmas....

Of course, what I'd really like to do is order today, AND order another batch in about week.

But that really would blow the budget out of the water.

You'd think after all these years I'd have figured out the best way to do things, but since I'll never entirely figure out customer behavior, I'll never probably get it quite right. I don't really even know, yet, if this Christmas is going to be good, bad, or somewhere in-between.

My inclination, as those who read this blog know, is to order the product today -- and try to address any shortfalls in January. But I don't know as I quite trust my inclinations -- I always seem to be playing catch-up.

Here's what I think is a deciding factor: I can order the stuff to arrive on Wednesday, and have five more days to see if sales are any good, and whether a second smaller order is possible.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

I'm in the Bulletin this morning, recommending a couple of books for Christmas:

"THE HUNGER GAMES"By Suzanne Collins.

This young adult novel is absolutely addicting. Young people are chosen to fight in survival games, which provides some exciting action, but there are deeper themes at play here, about freedom and independence, cooperation and empathy for others, and it's done with such sympathy you can't help but root for the characters. (First in a trilogy, followed by "CATCHING FIRE"and "MOCKINGJAY.")

'THE WALKING DEAD"By Robert Kirkman.

There are already 13 graphic novels released in this story, with more to come. Surviving the zombie apocalypse: It's not really so much about zombies, though there are plenty of those, but how people band together and cooperate and try to get along.

--Duncan McGeary, owner of Pegasus Books.

Notice how I slipped in 16 books when asked for two? Heh.

**********

This is one wet winter.

**********

Paul was in and saying my blog was way too dark and he wanted something cheerful.

So yesterday, Pegasus Books finally had a big day and it brought us to within 3% of last year's sales.

Sorry, that's the best I can do....

**********

Bank of America was still stalking us after our last go around.

We sent in the money, got it back, got rebilled, talked to them and insisted they close our account.

I don't have the letter in front of me informing me that the loan was closed, but it was surprisingly snippy, something like:

"We warn you we are closing your account, and don't you dare ever try to use this again, and if you try again there will be dire consequences!"

WTF?

I don't WANT to use your account, I've been trying to close it for months, and you kept wanting to collect fees on it or something.

More to the point, you cut off access to the HELOC a COUPLE OF YEARS AGO!

For which I thank you. Now, one last time and I truly mean it: Leave us Alone.

Freaking banks. Man, if you can't even pay them off, in full, just a clearcut solution....I feel complete sympathy for anyone trying to find a middle ground.

**********From Huffington Post:

"Assange's Lawyer Says He's Upbeat, Only Jailhouse Request is for a Computer."

I heard his counterfeiting jailmate was only asking for a printing press.

The dog fighting guy in the cell next door, only wants a pet.

**********

So a guy in a stolen car innocently passes through Bend with his trusty printer in the backseat, and passes a counterfeit 20.00 bill at a gas station/mart.

Probably been doing it for some time, passing through towns, getting a meal and some gas and on his way....

Little does he know that three young local guys have been all over town passing bad bills just a day or two before, and everyone in Bend is in high alert.

Friday, December 10, 2010

After reading interviews with independent bookstores (on Shelf Awareness), it appears that many of them are imbibing the kool-aid of e-books. They seem to be totally buying into the notion that it "puts them in the game."

Well, maybe not totally. There is an air of desperation to it.

You know what it reminds me of? Those piles of books that show up at the BookMark occasionally about how to "Save your Marriage."

"Meet him at the door wearing lingerie."

"Cook him gourmet meals."

"Kiss his feet...."

Well, maybe not that last one. But it always seems kind of demeaning.

I still maintain that we're bookstores, not coffee shops, not internet cafes, not performance centers.

Have some pride.

I'm not saying you shouldn't diversify or try new things. I mean -- look at my store.But I think it should be an organic, from the inside process, bringing on elements you're comfortable with, and can support.

Too much of what I'm hearing sounds like grasping at straws.

Yesterday's example of Time/Warner buying AOL. You can almost imagine the thought process behind it.

"Hey, I hear this internet tuby thingie is going to be really big. Let's buy an internet company!!

Whether it makes sense or not, whether they even understood it....

I've also seen this process in my own business several times over the years -- the sports card shops thinking they could reverse the decline by having "interactive" events. Game stores, the same thing -- in fact, the manufacturers have almost made it difficult to run a game store unless you have tournaments and game space and so on.

But if the fundamentals are weak -- no amount of activity will make up for it.

I also believe that these types of change should be planned far in advance. That both intended and unintended consequences should be explored. That they should be instituted slowly, and examined every step of the way, and walked back if they don't work.

They should most importantly, be built on the walls of success, not thrown into the breach of failure.

Jumping on a bandwagon is dangerous -- you're taking other people's advice a little too much, the learning curse is incredibly steep, and the costs are high.

You have to wonder if booksellers have thought out the logic of such a strategy. Or have really examined the long-term consequences.

Let's imagine that they are actually successful at selling e-books (as you know, I think this is doubtful, but lets imagine...). I would ask the question; "Which is more likely? That publishers will see e-books selling at independent bookstores?

"Or that publishers will see e-books selling."

Will that impression rebound to the indy's benefit, or just encourage a trend that will be its longterm downfall?

It reminds me of when the sport card market started turning to the mass market -- suddenly some brands were only available in the mass market, and other brands were cheaper there than anywhere else.

I think just about every cardshop in the country except me started buying their cards at the mass market. When I would question this, most of them would replay, "We can't afford not to have what the customer wants..."

Yeah -- except, in the end the card manufacturers saw the sales numbers from the mass market, and compared them to the sales to the indy's and came to the wrong conclusion -- that most cards, (or more cards than in reality) were selling in the mass market.

Which only encouraged them to spend even more of their efforts toward that market.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

"Indie bookstore customers no longer have to choose between reading digital and supporting their local bookstore — the American Booksellers Association announced today, Monday, December 6, 2010, that ABA member stores with Indie-Commerce websites are now selling Google e-books online. Google launched its e-book program today."

As another comic retailer mentioned, how are you independent if your partner is Amazon or Google?

I simply don't understand how either comic stores or book stores can effectively sell digital books. ALL EXPLANATIONS come across as fuzzy headed, self-deluding, gobbledygook.

I've said it before, but I think it bear repeating: It reminds me of watching the news conference about the merger of AOL and Time/Warner. After all the long, involved explanations of why they were doing it, I remember turning to Linda and saying,

"What they said made no sense."

**********Nimby activism is often amazingly effective.

The Powers That Be will back down, given enough opposition.

**********

Being a doctor's son, I of course know medicine. Very annoying when I go to see the doctor and he tells me, "No ...that isn't it. No....you've got that wrong."

I was indoctrinated against most alternative medicines, as well. Though I think I might have come to those conclusions on my own.

I wonder if other people born in doctor's families feel like they know medicine.

**********

As I mentioned before, there is a lot of posturing yet to go on about the unemployment benefits -- as well as the tax 'cuts'.

I predict after much more posturing, the whole thing will pass and the money problem will be kicked down the road.

It's only money. We can just print more of it, right?

**********

This month is just whizzing by. Especially if I break it up in segments -- like, I was thinking, I can make orders next week, but then I realized that by the time they arrived, it would be in the last 10 days before Christmas. So really, next week is it, as far as effective Christmas orders are concerned.

Really not in the mood to push too many bills into January -- if any.

**********

So the new owners of Breedlove, Two Old Hippies, have two guitar factories in China?

China ....or Northwest Crossing.

Northwest Crossing....or China.....

Hmmmmmm.

Gee, I wonder which is cheaper? Of course, there are the usual "We don't plan to move, we are going to expand...." statements.

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There is starting to be a bit of a boardgame glut developing. I decided I would stock up on the big three, Settlers of Catan, Ticket to Ride, and Carcassonne, mostly. While these are getting more and more in the "I already have that..." category, and the "I saw this elsewhere..." category -- every other boardgame is much more of "I don't know what this game is..." category.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

After writing my missive about change, yesterday, I come home to an e-mail from Diamond Comics, informing everyone in the western U.S.A. that they are closing their L. A. warehouse. Starting in March, they'll be shipping from Mississippi.

Mississippi.

Hard to see this as a good thing for us. Too many things can go wrong between here and Mississippi.

I will no longer be able to get supplies in just a few days, I'll no longer be able to get comic reorders from L.A. in only a week. It will be a two week swing, at minimum, from Mississippi.

Also kind of worries me that they feel the financial necessity of closing all warehouses west of Mississippi.

Mississippi. (There, I've now spelled out Mississippi more times in this one blog than I ever have in my life, thus finally justifying the memorization of the word.)

As someone else mentioned -- closings are almost never a good sign.

Once upon a time, we got our comics from Portland, Oregon. If you can imagine.

Mississippi.

**********

So I'm watching Jon Stewart last night and he has a clip of Bernanke more or less saying, "Oh, we're not really going into the debt; we're just printing the money we need."

O.K. Color me naive.

I thought when critics accused the Fed of "printing money", they were speaking figuratively.

Printing money.

That can't be good.

**********

I should probably never forget that other businesses are also going through momentous changes. Probably MOST other small businesses -- and, well, large businesses too, I suppose.

Anyway, the closing of the retail part of Satterlee's Jewelers in Redmond just sort of reminded me how often in my conversation with jewelers, they mention that it's the repair and design part of the business that is thriving for them.

Walmart sells diamonds.

**********

The president of Brooks Resources "...accepts St. Charles position."

Knowing only what I read in the paper, you got to figure that being a land developer is probably not the most exciting place to be right now. Just saying. There is probably huge money in being a developer when times are flush -- even for management.

Now? Probably more a baby-sitting job.

Or....maybe he's just taking on a more fulfilling job. I don't really know.

Just seemed like a surprise

**********

There is a scene in the old Fritz Lang German movie "M", where Peter Lorre (who plays a child murderer) has been chased by every citizen of Berlin and is brought before the crime bosses and surrounded by menacing men -- and he does his patented cornered squeal. You almost feel sorry for him. The child murderer. Almost.

Giuseppe's, which has been around a long time, is being replaced by Caldera. Decoy is being replaced by Bond Street Grill.

I noticed the Pine Tavern has changed ownership. This list isn't the proper place to note that, because it sounds like a pretty solid continuation of the business, (it's been kept in the family, so to speak), but I took note because it moves me up the list of the longest continually owned businesses in downtown, I do believe.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

A few years back, there were three businesses in Bend who opened within a short span of each other, who were profiled in the Bulletin, who for some reason were willing to give out some Costs of Opening figures.

Those costs were so high, I simply couldn't understand how they could possibly ever earn a profit -- and this was before the crash.

One lasted a very short time, the other morphed over time but eventually went out, and the third recently announced they were changing their name and management.

The two of them located in downtown Bend, left 'beautiful corpses' , as I phrase it -- the next people occupying the spots probably won't have nearly the opening costs.

Downtown Bend fails ever upward.

**********

The health news about Elizabeth Edwards is bringing back memories of my sister, Tina. They were diagnosed with the same disease at about the same time, though it's progressed differently. That and the Holidays, which we always used to celebrate at Tina's house have made me miss her.

UPDATE: Ms. Edwards has died. I wrote this earlier this morning, and just hadn't posted it. Sad. She was about the same age as Tina, too.

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Got in six large boxes of books yesterday, which I'm going to take my time filing away today. Last week, I thought it would take me all day to put a large game order away, and I got it done in a couple of hours.

I'm still finding it hard to read books at the store -- thank god for the internet, where I can fritter my time away endlessly.

**********

The electrical outlets at Pegasus are kind of weird -- very old wiring, I suspect. Anyway, lightbulbs tend to last for very, very short periods of time in the niches at the front part of the store, so I tend to not replace them most of the year. But from Thanksgiving through December, I try to make the effort.

I saw a picture of the front of the store on another Bend blog, and it gave off such a warm glow, maybe I should try harder the rest of the year. Buy a case of cheap lightbulbs, or something.

About Me

I'm Duncan McGeary, owner and/or operator for the last 33 years of Pegasus Books in Downtown Bend, Oregon. These days I'm writing books as well as selling them.
I'm the comic book guy. But even more so, I'm a book book guy. Books of all kinds. Big books and little books, children's and adult, fiction and non-fiction, hardback and paperback and trade paperback and graphic novels. Books with more words than pictures and books with more pictures than words. They are all part of the book world to me, and I love being surrounded by them every day.
I also have a second blog: Pegasus Books, where I list the product coming in over the next week.