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Resource Investors: Why You Can Expect Sunnier Days Ahead

By: Frank Holmes | Monday, January 28, 2013

During the current commodity supercycle, there have been occasions--too many
to count--when investor psyche has been damaged by reports about slowing U.S.
growth, a hard landing in China or a debt crisis in Europe. Yet just behind
the gloom, significant and positive trends are taking hold, causing the storms
to start dissipating.

I often say that government policies are precursors to change, which is why
we follow the monetary and fiscal actions closely as they can have a significant
impact on asset prices. You have to go back about 16 months when Brazil kicked
off the latest global easing cycle by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points.
Since then many developing countries such as the Philippines, China and Colombia,
as well as developed nations of Japan, the European Central Bank, the U.S.
and the U.K. have joined forces in a world-wide synchronized stimulation of
the economy.

Last summer, Mario Draghi indicated that the ECB would do "whatever it takes" to
save the euro. In the fall, the Federal Reserve agreed to buy $85 billion a
month in Treasuries and mortgages, amounting to $1 trillion a year. And just
recently, Japan announced that, in addition to pumping $1.1 trillion into the
markets through 2013, the central bank will keep an open-ended approach to
buying assets through 2014.

Historically, central banks' policy actions occur after there's been some
economic deterioration. Several months later, the stimulative measures work
their way through the global economy.

This has been the case with China, which has been showing remarkable improvement
in its export-oriented HSBC Purchasing Managers Index. The PMI is a measure
of health of companies in China, as it includes output, new orders, employment
and prices across numerous sectors.

This month, the Flash PMI came in at 51.9, beating market consensus, which
was at 51.7. The PMI stands at a two-year high, as you can see in the chart
below.

A few months ago, when China's improving PMI was just beginning to attract
attention, I talked with Peter Gibson and Randy Cass fromCanada's
Business News Network, who were skeptical of the data because of the slowdown
in Europe, China's largest trading partner. I indicated that although Europe's
deceleration negatively affected China, there were other underlying positive
factors taking place. In addition to the continuous stimulus program happening
in the countries, China's new leadership had been solidified. I believed that
these dynamics would help PMI accelerate and exports to pick up.

PMIs are leading indicators for global resources stocks, which have lagged
over the past year. In 2012, the Morgan Stanley Commodity Related Index only
increased 1.4 percent. However, this year, the index is off to an incredible
start, rising more than 8 percent in only four weeks.

Stocks across a number of cyclical areas of the market have benefited from
this global improvement, including industrial companies such as trucking, rail
and airlines. Take a look below at a classic cyclical measure of the market,
the Dow Jones Transportation Average, or Dow Jones Transports. The index, an
average of 20 transportation companies in the U.S., reached an all-time high
last week.

In addition to the synchronized stimulus driving resources, we are entering
the time of year that has historically been good for energy equities. Looking
at two decades of seasonal patterns of companies in the S&P 500 Energy
Index, the next six months have historically been the best of the year. While
energy stocks typically decline in January, they have seen positive results
in February, March, April and May. July has historically been the best month
for energy stocks, climbing more than 3 percent on a median return basis.

It seems clear that there are a number of investors who have gained confidence
in the global economy and are seeking to capture the growth opportunities taking
place around the world. With the European crisis comfortably in the rear view
mirror and global central banks taking the position that they will continue
their easing policies, investors have taken their foot off the brake and have
begun to accelerate.

As we've been consistently communicating in presentations lately,
we see more sunshine and less stormy weather ahead. Take advantage of these
momentous and seasonal shifts and make sure you have an appropriate allocation
to equities poised to benefit, such as global
natural resources stocks. As a benchmark weighting for investors, the energy
and materials sectors make up 15 percent of the S&P 500 Index.

A caveat to these sunnier days is the U.S. debt ceiling issue. In managing
expectations going forward, we likely will see volatility not unlike the ups
and downs of the last four years. However, every dip has historically been
a buying opportunity. With many investors now considering equities today, future
dips are likely to be opportunities to buy as well.

Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors,
Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing
in natural resources, emerging markets and infrastructure.

The company's funds have earned more than two dozen Lipper Fund Awards and
certificates since 2000. The Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) was Lipper's top-performing
global natural resources fund in 2010. In 2009, the World Precious Minerals
Fund (UNWPX) was Lipper's top-performing gold fund, the second time in four
years for that achievement. In addition, both funds received 2007 and 2008
Lipper Fund Awards as the best overall funds in their respective categories.

Mr. Holmes was 2006 mining fund manager of the year for Mining Journal, a
leading publication for the global resources industry, and he is co-author
of "The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing."

He is also an advisor to the International Crisis Group, which works to resolve
global conflict, and the William J. Clinton Foundation on sustainable development
in nations with resource-based economies.

Mr. Holmes is a much-sought-after conference speaker and a regular commentator
on financial television. He has been profiled by Fortune, Barron's, The Financial
Times and other publications.

Please consider carefully a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and
expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus
by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling
1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed
by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.