Thursday, October 13, 2016

Can Moscow Use Non-Russian Republics to Break Sanctions Regime – And Can They Use This against Moscow?

Paul
Goble

Staunton, October 13 – Moscow
commentators and presumably Moscow officials are delighted that a group of
Italian businessmen have travelled to the capital of the Republic of Kalmykia
in order to explore joint projects that could allow them to participate in
import substitution and break through the sanctions regime.

But if Moscow can use its
non-Russian republics in this way, there is the very real possibility that the
republics will use any success they have as a way of building up their own
status and pressuring the central authorities to make concessions to them for
their “contribution” to the Russian economy.

Even when there was no sanctions
regime, the non-Russian republics within the Russian Federation that succeeded
in developing trade ties with the outside world invoked that achievement in
their negotiations with Moscow; and consequently it was often the case that what
the central government won on the one hand, it often lost on the other.

Today’s “Nezavisimaya gazeta”
carries an article by Andrey Serenko entitled “Kalmykia Breaks the Sanction
Regime” in which the paper’s correspondent in Elista observes that what has
occurred in that Buddhist republic in the steppe could be repeated in other
republics of the Russian Federation (ng.ru/regions/2016-10-13/5_kalmykia.html).

According to experts with whom
Serenko spoke, “European companies are testing a technique of end running the
sanctions regime which has interfered with their cooperation with Russia,”
something Moscow will be pleased by and the West not at all but that may matter
most of all for the non-Russian republics.

Kalmykia
head Aleksey Orlov said of his meeting with the Italian businessmen that “European
companies will seek ways of going around the sanctions regime, including
through increasing cooperation with Russian regions. Today we see this already
in the case of Kalmykia.”

While in Elista, the Italian
businessmen proposed a new form of cooperation with local officials and
businesses, one that would shift from “’made in Italy’” to the notion of “’made
with Italy,’” an indication that both sides see this as a way of passing under
the radar screens of the sanction regime.