Our Man in NYC

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Saturday, November 5

Portfolio
Update - Precious
Metals:As mentioned in the recent post,
Our Man exited all of his positions in precious metals (GLD, GDX, SLV) very
early in the 3rd quarter.The
positions were the largest contributor to performance in 2016, but Our Man is unconvinced
that the rally is the start of a new bull market (especially given Our Man’s
view on the dollar strengthening).

- Technical
book:Our Man’s technical indicators
believe there’s a good probability (i.e. 50%+) that the rally from Feb-16 lows
is the start of a significant up-leg in the markets (rather than a sharp bear
market rally) and as such it recommended re-entering the positions (DDM, QLD
and SSO).Our Man duly did so, almost at
the start of Q3.

-Currencies: Our Man entered a small/medium
size position Short Japanese Yen (vs Long US Dollar, YCS) early in the third
quarter.Following a strong rally in the
Yen (to the 100 level vs. the USD), and the continued commitment of the Bank of
Japan to easing monetary policy, Our Man felt comfortable
re-entering this position.

Performance and Review The portfolio performed pretty well during the third quarter, adding 348bps
which puts the year-to-date performance at 2.81%.

The primary driver of
performance was the International/Country book, which added 185bps.The Argentinean equity positions contributed
almost the entirety of the profit – the new government has continued to impress
international onlookers (lifting capital controls, taxation changes, settling
with the bond holdouts and issuing new debt, etc) and MSCI put Argentina on
review for possible inclusion into the Emerging Markets indices (potentially in
mid-2017).The
early impact of this was most visible in the position in Pampa Energie (PAM)
which contributed over 100bps on its own.It’s a beneficiary of the move to market prices (removal of
subsidies/etc), which although gradual will positively impact profitability
over the coming years, and its decent liquidity/size and management history,
has resulted in the stock being one of the first to attract large mutual fund
interest.The probability is Our Man
will be looking to exit the Argentinean names during 2017, most likely in the
run up to the MSCI decision.

Elsewhere, the other
equity-orientated books were positive contributors during the quarter.The Technical book (+50bps) benefited from
the rising market (post it’s mid-July addition to the portfolio).The Equities book (+81bps) currently holds
just a position in Vipshop Holdings (VIPS), a Chinese Internet retailer, which rallied after
announcing strong Q2 growth and earnings. The company retains an interesting niche in the
Chinese market, and unlike many peers is already generating a healthy profit.

Despite being in the
portfolio for only a few weeks, the Precious Metals book (+99bps) nonetheless contributed
strongly.The Energy Efficiency book
(-2bps) had a marginal impact, as the sole position was liquidated.

Disclaimer: For added clarity, Our Man is invested in all of the
securities mentioned. He also holds some cash and a few other securities
(of negligible value). You should not buy any of these securities because
Our Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best
for you.

Sunday, September 18

Yes, in many ways he’s a very flawed
candidate and he’s exceptionally unpopular one. His opportunity lies in
Secretary Clinton’s weaknesses as a flawed campaigner with her trust/honesty
issues (whether they’re perception or real, is irrelevant) and a popularity
level that’s in the Trumpian realm. They’re literally the most unpopular candidates to run for President – they key for each, might just be avoiding appearing
in the press in the final week! In all likelihood, the favorable
demographics and Mr. Trump’s weaknesses should be enough for Secretary Clinton
to win, assuming she gets enough of those young voters who stubbornly only
turnout to vote for President Obama, to the polls! That said, I wouldn’t expect
a majority in the popular vote or much of a mandate despite the claims
otherwise.

- Limits of monetary policy
and R*

One of the more thought provoking things that Our Man has
read recently is this essay from San Francisco Fed’s John Williams that came
out just before the staff of various Central Banks met at Jackson Hole.
In it, he argues the world has changed (and the neutral rate of interest is
lower), thus monetary policy needs to change and that monetary policy is not
the only answer. Suggested changes on the monetary policy side include a
higher inflation target, or replacing inflation targeting with a flexible
price-level or nominal GDP targeting framework. Both of these suggest a
lower-for-longer (maybe forever) since with inflation (and GDP) undershooting
existing targets (and thus increasing the distance to future targets) the
pressure to increase rates diminishes further.
As for what lower-for-longer/ever means…well, there are some thoughts on that below.

- People’s QE

It may go by a
different name, and under many different guises, but it’s coming to a country
near you…soon! With monetary policy at close to its limits, and
rising populist sentiment in numerous countries around the globe, the stage is
being set for “People’s QE”. What does Our Man mean by “People’s QE” –
think massive fiscal spending, supported (directly, but possibly indirectly to
get around legal issues) by an aggressive Central Bank QE program.
It will be done differently across countries, but the most successful will by
those countries that realize “infrastructure spending” in the 21st
century while not yet well defined likely doesn’t mean the same as it did in
the post-World War 2 period! Our Man’s sneaking suspicion is that
Britain, with the readymade excuse of Brexit and seeking global
competitiveness, will do it best with a mixture of old school infrastructure
spending (bridges, roads, etc), new-style infrastructure spending (start with
internet/cellular connectivity, but who knows what else, maybe it’s drones,
etc), education (especially in very pro-Brexit areas) and healthcare (updating
hospitals, from the bricks and mortar to processes/etc).

- Regulation

Despite all the talk in the political realm,
Our Man rather suspects that increased scrutiny on Banks and Financials
(post-08) was the start of a trend rather than a one-off, and wouldn’t be surprised
to see Technology and Healthcare cos next in the regulatory firing line.

- The market will either be much
higher or much lower within the next 12mos

Our Man just can’t tell you which
but is pretty sure it ain’t going to hang around here. The downside case
is the clearest with investors able to take their pick of potential issues,
including China, slow growth, falling Earnings/high valuations, Europe and the
Euro, Brexit, etc. The upside case is more complicated, but linked to negative
rates (and the prospect of negative or low rates for some time). At a certain level negative rates make sense;
it’s an acceptance that we can’t afford our debts, and thus pricing the
interest rate at the level at which we can amortize them. If this is
true, and as yields turn negative and assets fall in real terms (with central
banks adding money to prevent nominal falls), then the answer is to buy
duration, and stocks are exceptionally long duration instruments. So if
you think negative yields are here for the long-haul, you want to be buying
stocks…hand over fist.

Portfolio UpdateOur Man’s felt that the market is
sitting at the edge of the binary path for a couple of months now, and so he
made some changes to the portfolio earlier in the third quarter. Out have
gone all the commodity-related positions (Gold, Silver, and Gold Miners) which
have generated exceptional profits year-to-date, but are stretched following
their strong runs and vulnerable to dollar-strength. Into the portfolio have come some (levered)
market equity positions, in particular as Our Man’s Technical book saw a
tentative buy signal – expect to see more, if the market’s price action
suggests much higher highs ahead. The Currency and International
positions remain unchanged, though the Argentinean equities are nearing the end
of their (so far successful) investment horizon. Our Man full expects to sit here, not doing
much, and let price determine whether some of these positions are sold or are joined
by substantially more equities.

Saturday, July 30

As noted, Our Man wasn’t particularly shocked by the
Brexit result and given there have been numerous post-mortems, Our Man’s going
to limit his thoughts.

It seems pretty clear that “Leave” ran a much better
campaign than “Remain”, starting off with just having a better and more
productive name.Strategically Leave had
three prongs, (i) Sovereignty, (ii) Immigration, and (iii) Anti-status quo (and
with the major parties both on the Remain side, status-quo has a wider scope
than normal, i.e. politics/politicians/bureaucrats/etc); while immigration got
all the attention (especially from the press and Remain campaign), sovereignty was much more important.On the other hand, the Remain campaign’s
strategy was primarily driven by the economic cost of leaving the EU (with a
nod to apparent strategic benefits of being a member, which were never fully articulated). The
largest flaw in this being that using economic fear (even if justified) has a diminished impact, when the same population (if not electorate) have
been exposed to it as the primary weapon in votes in 2014 (in the Scottish referendum)
and 2015 (in the General Election).People
don’t have to be economic experts to figure out either (i) the world can only
end so many times, or (ii) if the economy is so fragile that Scotland leaving/Labour getting into power/Brexit can each individually crash it, then there will be something else soon enough is Brexit is avoided.Finally, on a tactical basis “Leave” had better
leadership (say what you want about Boris/Gove and their behavior, but everyone
knew who to listen to as opposed to Cameron/Osbourne’s the world is ending
again, and Corbyn’s errr…errr…exactly) and a simple effective slogan (“Take
Back Control”) that meant different things to different people (like Obama’s “Yes,
We Can”, and Trump’s “Make America Great Again” – it’s hard to take the opposite
side of a good slogan!).

While the campaign matters, the structural setting for a
Leave vote was in place; it is readily apparent (to OM, at least) that there is the
widespread popular discontent (be it in Greece, Spain, France, the UK and US)
with the range of political choice offered and their policy prescriptions.The widespread nature of this discontent is I think better understood
by the population than by the political (and elite) class, and the attempts to
ascribe it solely to immigration (more of a symptom) is reflective of
this.The lack of willingness to
investigate and understand this discontent has helped create the opportunity for the populist characters on the left and right like Jeremy Corbyn,
Nigel Farage, Bernie Saunders and Donald Trump.Furthermore, the complacency shown by the major parties as these characters rose
(due to their low quality and general incoherence), and still being shown towards
Mr. Trump, reflects how badly the political class are underestimating the
underlying message.Finally, the
distorting impact of QE on inequality and corporate incentives, has only added
fuel to the fire of that dissatisfaction.

That this manifested itself in a vote for Brexit,
seemingly aided by stalwart Labour areas in England, should not come as a
surprise.For the last generation, as
globalization and with it free trade and free movement of capital (with its
negative impact on tax bases) have swept across the globe, the policy
prescription has been to increase welfare to deal with the uneven impact.Now however, the costs of welfare are
becoming prohibitive both financially (on government budgets) and in terms of
lost productivity.While welfare is
necessary, and one can easily understand how data and economic models suggest
it is the best approach, Our Man suspects that likely reveals more about the models, and their over-valuation of the short-term
than anything.The extremes of the
welfare state help foster a culture of dependency and while transfer paymentshelp people live
their lives, it constrains them to ones that are harder to develop meaning and
self-respect.Furthermore, on an
economy-wide basis, it helps undermine productivity through the lost skills
(and lack of development of new ones) limiting the economy’s potential. In the fullness of time and with the repeated
prescriptions of the same solution, these micro and macro factors swamp the
easy fix of a cash transfer.

Finally, it is said that history rhymes, rather than
repeats, and to that end Our Man has been surprised at the lack of mention of
Britain’s exit from the gold standard in 1931.After all, following 6yrs of austerity back then, Britain was the first
country to come off the gold standard and its departure came after a naval mutiny
(Invergordon revolt), which caused market panic and the Pound fell 25% in the
aftermath! Inevitably, it was deemed at the time to be sacrilege to
leave the Gold standard, a tragic mistake from which the country would never
recover and one that would doom London's financial centre.Of course, it proved not to be in part due to
the huge stimulus from that devaluation and within 2 years (1933) most other
countries had followed Britain’s lead and left the Gold standard.

Now of course, we’ve just had 6yrs of austerity
(Chancellor Osborne's first austerity budget was July 2010), and Britain voted
to become the first country to leave the EU delivered by a different mutiny (the 2.8mn non-voters who delivered Brexit).It too has caused market panic (albeit
briefly), and (so far) the Pound has fallen 15% in the aftermath!
It’s also being called a tragic mistake, against the perceived wisdom of the
day and London's financial centre is doomed.Time will tell how different ending the UK will have this time…

Our Man, will return shortly, with some things he thinks
in the aftermath of Brexit…

Friday, July 15

Portfolio
Update - Equity: Our Man finally managed to exit the Dr. Reddy’s
(RDY) position late in the quarter, for a very marginal profit.

- Currencies: Midway through
the quarter, after the strong rally in the Euro, Our Man added substantially to
the S Euro position.

Performance and Review The second quarter proved far more generous than the first, with the portfolio
rising +4.54%, leaving it -0.6% YTD.

The performance was primarily driven by the
Precious Metals (+301bps) positions.
While both Gold (GLD, +27bps) and Silver (SLV, +68bps) contributed, it
was the exposure to the Gold Miners (+207bps) that made the difference. Our Man was too early into the Precious
Metals positions in 2015, but the positions have more than recouped those
losses and provided a healthy gain over 2015/2016. The strong performance of the Precious Metals
book (along with the Dollar strength, especially versus the Euro) meant that
Our Man's portfolio was quite profitable in the days following ‘Brexit’.

The Equity book (-17bps) posted a small loss,
as VIPS continues to work through its issues and the stock is between investor
bases; while cheap (Internet company at less than 20x PE) and growing (40%+ p.a.), it’s
also seen its growth slow from 100%+ p.a. and so is transitioning from being
held by growth investors to more value-orientated ones. The International book (+126bps) performed
well, led by Pampa Energie (PAM). Argentina
continues to be the gift that keeps on giving – the pace of Macri’s reforms
continues unabated, and MSCI moved the country to the watch-list for possible
inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

Finally, the Long Dollar positions were
profitable with the China Thesis (+3bps) and the Currencies book (+41bps)
generating returns as the dollar strengthened slightly against the Aussie
Dollar and especially the Euro (post-Brexit).

Disclaimer: For added clarity, Our Man is invested in all of the
securities mentioned. He also holds some cash and a few other securities
(of negligible value). You should not buy any of these securities because
Our Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best
for you.

Friday, July 8

It’s been an exceptionally long-time since Our Man posted
a “Things from my Google Reader”, so here’s a bumper edition. Hopefully, the wait will not be so long in
the future!

- The Spy Behind the Plane that Saved BritainIn the skies over Britain in 1940 the Spitfire turned the
tide against the Nazis, but only a handful of people knew that it owed its edge
to secrets cribbed from Germany. (Clive
Irving, the Daily Beast)

- The FBI vs FIFAFootball is the world’s game, and it wasn’t exactly a
secret that FIFA, the governing body, was corrupt. Yet, it took the Americans to get the sport
to start to clean up its act – maybe we should start calling it ‘soccer’ out of
gratitude! Just kidding! But here’s ESPN with the in-depth story about
how the FBI brought down FIFA! (Shaun Assael & Brett Forrest, with Vivek
Chaudhary, at ESPN)

- What the iPhone has done to cameras is completely insane File this one under things you know, but are still
stunning to see (especially in graphical form).
How badly do you think camera sales fell, following the iPhone’s
introduction in 2007? Roberto Ferdman
looks into it, and it’s uglier than you thought (well, uglier than OM thought
at least). (Roberto Ferdman, Washington
Post).

- Taxi, Uber and Lyft usage in NYCThe TLC provides regular usage data, and Todd Schneider
made life easier by collating it all and taking a look. You know what to expect, but seeing it in
graphical form always helps confirm things; Uber up, taxis down, Lyft still
trying. (Todd W. Schneider, at his
eponymous blog)

- Will self-driving cars lead to grade-separated cities?What will real self-driving cars (think more the Google
version than the fake Tesla version) mean for cities? Well, the folks at MIT’s Sensable City Lab
had a look at the future of traffic lights, and predict their days may be
numbered.

BREXIT It’s been the biggest thing in Our Man’s homeland since
sliced bread, and though the world hasn’t (yet) ended it’s certainly been
shaken up. Rest assured, Our Man has
lots of thoughts on Brexit and related things, but you’re likely to be saved
from most of them (though Our Man probably won’t be able to resist writing one post,
and no more, on the subject). In the
meantime, here are some of the few things Our Man has actually found worth
reading on Brexit (and related things) in the aftermath.

- Evolution not RevolutionWhile newspapers & politicians want to talk about about
immigration, the date indicates it was 'sovereignty' that drove the Leave vote. Ideally, this should inform the British negotiations,
and the Adam Smith Institute make the case for the EEA option. (Adam Smith Institute)

- The 2.8million Non-voters who Delivered BrexitAn interesting analysis of where the polling went wrong
(spoiler alert: turnout models) and the large cohort of ‘new’ voters that it
largely missed. Ascertaining who they
are isn’t the hard part, but what do they want and will they vote again is much
harder? Secretary Clinton better hope
that Donald Trump isn’t as successful at finding them. (Matt Singh, Bloomberg…though he’s normally
found at the excellent Number Cruncher Politics)

- Brexit: A disaster decades in the makingYou do not have to agree with the author’s viewpoint (that it’s a disaster) to appreciate that there’s some really good stuff in here about the long-term issues
that led to the lack of trust/faith/etc in the establishment (and both major
political parties). (Gary Younge, Guardian)

Sunday, April 24

- Technical: After growing sceptical of the rally
during December (but not flashing any major warning signs), the Technical model
quckly flashed a warning and a full sell signal during the first couple of
weeks of January.As a result, OM exited
the positions in mid-January when the S&P was in the mid-1900s.

- Equity: With
the warning lights from the Technical model flashing, and the myriad of issues
with China (and as a result EM) coming to the forefront, OM decided it would be
a judicious time to exit some of his Equity positions that have a
Chinese-bent.As such he completely
exited TTM (which suffers doubly from any slowdown in auto sales in China and
the US, where sales are already at a high rate) and JD.com (Chinese company, in
Internet consumer sector).Our Man also
sold ~1/3 of the VIPS position, another Chinese internet name, but one in which
he has higher conviction than JD.com (in part because it generates a profit).

- International:As noted in the year-end review, with all the issues in Europe and Our
Man’s lack of faith in European decision-making, he exited all of the Italy
(EWI) and Spain (EWP) positions in mid-January.In addition, after the exceptional
performance of the Argentinean names as President Macri first forced a run-off
and then won it (and proved far more decisive and aggressive in dealing with
the issues in his first 100days than was believed possible), OM took the
opportunity to take profits in his Argentina position (by selling TGS).

- Currencies:With
Europe following Japan into negative interest rates, and having witnessed the
impact of the move in Japan on both the currency (stronger, not weaker) and
banking system (stocks falling), OM reduced his Short Euro position by 1/3
during the second half of the first quarter.

- China Thesis: With Chinese New Year followed by data
that looks to be improving (or at least, not getting worse) and the bounce in
commodity prices, OM substantially reduced the Short AUD position (by 80%+).The position has been a great winner, but OM
suspects there will be a much better time when he’s able to re-enter it (at
much better prices).

Performance and Review The first quarter saw the portfolio drop 4.95%, though
after suffering a 7.0% loss in the first two weeks of January, the
book was incrementally profitable in the remainder of the month and both February and March.

Unsurprisingly, the Equities book (-304bps) and the
Technical book (-283bps) were the largest causes of the loss.As the Portfolio Update above notes, both
books were heavily cut back during the month (they were over 50% NAV, and are
now 10%) and in the Technical Book’s case the exposure is unlikely to return
any time soon barring a significant change (this is as the Technical model is
signalling a bear market, rather than just a notable correction).The International/Country book (-94bps)
suffered during January (primarily from the European positions), though the Argentinean
names have continued to perform well as President Macri exceeds expectations
(settling with the holdouts, and accessing global capital markets for the first
time in 15yrs).

Despite their reduced size, the currency-orientated book
were negative contributors, Currencies (-48bps) and China Thesis (-2bps),
during the quarter with all of the losses coming in March; clearly OM wasn’t
surprised by the dollar’s weakness (hence why the positions were reduced)
though the speed of the reversal was a surprise.That said, expect OM to rebuild the currency positions
in the future, especially the Euro (prior to Brexit, Greece’s latest problems,
etc).Finally, the Precious Metals
(+235bps) book contributed to returns with Gold, Gold Miners and latterly
Silver all contributing well and erasing most of last year’s loss (oh the cost
of being too early!!).While OM’s yet to
be convinced this is more than the start of a sharp reversal in a bear market,
he’s holding onto the positions as (though it will likely be volatile) there’s
likely much more to come.

Disclaimer:
For added clarity, Our Man is invested in all of the securities
mentioned. He also holds some cash and a few other securities (of
negligible value). You should not buy any of these securities because Our
Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best for
you.

Thursday, February 4

Portfolio Update - Equity: Our Man added
to the position in VIPS, after the company disappointed the market with its
earnings and guidance early in Q4.- International: Our Man
exited the position in Greece during December; while the Greek market looks
cheap on a long-term basis (CAPE), there remain questions about how useful the
Greek data is. The data-set starts in ’95, and hence predominantly covers
the period when Greece was trying to get into and then a member of the
Euro. As such, how truly representative is this period? Does it just
reflect a time of unusual ‘good’ behavior by the actors – government,
companies, etc – in Greece? Given the continued austerity as a condition
of remaining with the Euro and the uncertainty (while it’s not at the forefront
of people’s minds, currently) of whether it will remain so, Our Man decided it
best to (finally) just cut his losses and move on. Those of you, who’re
pondering “what’s changed” are largely right…it’s a decision Our Man should
have come to some time ago.- Currencies: The
position S Japanese Yen (YCS) was closed out during the fourth quarter, having
been profitably held (at various sizes) for over 2 years. While there may
be more actions to come from the Japanese Central Bank, Our Man isn’t convinced
they’ll have as much of an impact as those we’ve seen over the last 3 years.

Performance and Review The portfolio gained 4.3%
during Q4, though this meant it still ended the year in negative territory at
-4.6%. Despite the profitable quarter, Q4-2015 is likely to go down as
one of Our Man’s most disappointing. During the quarter, and especially
in December, there were many signs of both macro changes (including weakening
US data) and in market tone – in particular with regards to China (further RMB weakness and concerns over its banking system)
and credit markets (Third Avenue’s redemption suspension from their credit fund).
These factors impacted the portfolio negatively in December (and subsequently
January), and Our Man failed to respond to them proactively. Thus, rather
than the normal round-up of a quarter, the below represents both a round-up
coupled with Our Man’s current thinking and plans on the various books.

China Thesis: While the
moves in the Australian Dollar cost the portfolio 64bps, the Long USD/S AUD
position contributed 2x this during the course of the year. OM
retains the position, expecting a substantially lower AUD (i.e. more like the
2001 lows than the 2008/9 lows) as the unwinding of the China-driven secular
bull market in commodities continues. Unfortunately, while OM expects the
AUD position to continue to be a good contributor it’s an inefficient way to
play the thesis, but the other options (S the RMB or Shorting 2nd derivative stocks from the mining/commodity fall-out –
I’m looking at you CAT) aren’t available to him.

International/Country:
Was a great contributor, +335bps, during the 4th quarter. The
performance was driven by the Argentina exposure; Macri (the most market
friendly candidate) did better than expected, initially forcing a run-off which
he subsequently won. Since he took office in December, he has been better
than anyone could hope for; removing capital controls, making changes to the
tax system, replacing the Central Bank Governor and the Head of the Statistics
office, and even starting to negotiate with the holdouts which would bring
Argentina back to the global capital markets. Stocks have responded to
these moves, but OM trimmed the position during January – while Argentina is a
great alpha story, it’s a terrible beta one as a Latin American emerging market
(look at Brazil, for what could go wrong) in what’s become a less patient and
forgiving environment.

The European positions
were mild detractors in the case of Spain and Italy, and a continued
disappointment with regards to Greece. Our Man’s never been a huge
Europhile, so he’ll spare you the Europe is a “political construct not a
popular one” comments, and just say that in times of stress (be it caused by
Euro, or now the refugee crisis in Syria that’s impact European countries) he
has little faith in “Europe” making sound long-term decisions. As such,
after exiting Greece in December, Our Man exited both Spain and Italy in
January – they’re still ‘cheap’ and he hopes to be back, though it may be a
while!

Equities: The
equity book was a mess in Q4, despite the rising markets, costing the portfolio
125bps.- JD/VIPS were hit by China
concerns and VIPS, in particular, produced disappointing numbers which it also
handled ineptly (deciding to pre-announce on a Friday, a couple of days before
their Earnings announcement). While growth is decelerating, unlike most
Internet companies VIPS generates profits and thus can be valued off earnings
(rather than revenue, or clicks, or whatever). The stock trades at a
reasonable PE (14x 2016) while still seeing 40-50% top and bottom line
growth! Despite this, OM reduced the position in January while also
exiting JD (which doesn’t generate any profits)- The two Indian positions
were also disappointments. Tata Motors (TTM) continues to roll-out new
models (especially Land Rover and Jaguar) and they’ve been doing well, but was
hit by concerns that the auto cycle has peaked (especially in China, and
important market). While it may outperform other automakers, it’s another
good alpha/bad beta story, and OM would rather keep his Argentinean exposure,
hence he sold out of the position in January. Dr Reddy’s problems were
largely of its own making,
which at least gives it the opportunity for self-help going forwards.

Technical: The Technical
book contributed 261bps during the 4th Quarter from the OEW-driven
positions. Unfortunately, there were some signs in December that the
market’s bull run had peaked, after the S&P failed repeatedly to break to
new highs (which were expected), though no sell signal was seen.
Unfortunately, the sharp descent early in January produced the sell signals,
and OM exited the positions (at around the current levels). Given the
OEW-driven model has signaled the end of the 2009-2015 bull market, OM doesn’t
expect to have any positions in the Technical book (without substantial market
changes) until we’re into 2017. He is however, working on another (very
simple) model to add to the book – as with the OEW-driven model, the new one
will seek to help OM get over his skepticism and systematically add market
exposure for prolonged periods.

Currencies: The
currency books continued to be productive, adding 56bps in Q4. As noted,
OM has closed out the Short Japanese Yen position, but he retains the Short
Euro position (EUO). With the Federal Reserve raising rates in December
and Europe continuing to try and ease (or at least Draghi trying to convince
investors that’s the intent) there is a nice dichotomy in policy.
Hopefully, it will last.

Precious Metals:
Our Man wasted almost 300bps in 2015, by entering these positions both too
early and sizing them too big. Unfortunately, OM continued to pay for his
inaction after recognizing this relatively early-on. Despite costing the
portfolio 28bps in Q4/December, there were finally signs that the time may
finally be here for them…though a large part of any move, is merely recouping
losses.

Disclaimer:
For added clarity, Our Man is invested in all of the securities
mentioned. He also holds some cash and a few other securities (of
negligible value). You should not buy any of these securities because Our
Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best for
you.

Disclaimer

All opinions in this blog are solely Our Man's own, and are not to be paid too much attention to, followed or even construed as the mildest of suggestions as to how you should invest. Our Man is an investment professional (but does not professionally trade/invest directly in the markets) and like everyone else he makes mistakes. Our Man strongly recommends that you do your own "research" on any idea or theme that he may mention because he may well be wrong. Absolutely nothing Our Man writes should be taken as an invitation to buy or sell any security.