Thursday, March 4, 2010

Breaking Down the West Division Playoff Picture Using Maths

Alright guys, I'm gonna bust out the maths here today. Inspired by a post from Defending Big D's Brandon Bibb called "Western Conference Playoff Primer", I decided to break down the AHL's West Division using maths. Maths are my expertise by trade, being a mechanical engineer.

Here are the data:

SEED

TEAM

GP

PTS

PROJ

#1

#2

#3

#4

REQ%

1

Chicago

62

83

107

24

14

14

11

0.306

2

Rockford

65

79

97

28

18

18

15

0.500

3

Milwaukee

61

74

97

33

23

23

20

0.526

4

Texas

62

73

94

34

24

24

21

0.583

5

San Antonio

62

65

84

E

32

32

29

0.806

6

Houston

63

64

81

E

33

33

30

0.882

7

Peoria

60

61

81

E

36

36

33

0.825

Here's the explanation.

So first we've taken all of the data for the West Division standings accurate to today (March 4th). Then, we've determined each teams current points rate, that is, the number of points they have accumulated divided by the number of games they have played. If we multiply this by 80, the number of games in the AHL season, we can determine a best-guess estimate of the number of points the team will finish with. This number appears in the column labeled "PROJ".

Now we get tricky. The next four columns show the predicted number of points that each team needs to accumulate in order to finish in that position in the division. The best way to explain this is with an example.

So, let's look at how many point Texas would need to finish #2 in the division. We see this number is 24. This number was calculated by taking the current number of points Texas has (73) and subtracting it from the projected point total of the currently expected #2 finisher (Rockford/Milwaukee at 97).

The "E" symbol on the table indicates that the team has been realistically eliminated from contention for that position given their record and the record of the teams above them. No teams have been mathematically eliminated from any positions yet. Peoria could still win all their games and Chicago lose all of theirs. Unlikely, but possible. This is just an estimate based on past performance.

Finally, in the last column, we have the REQ% value. This is the required points percentage for the remainder of the season for each team in order to achieve a playoff spot. You can see from this that Peoria, for example, must earn 82.5% of the remaining points on its schedule to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. That's 33/40 points. Whoa.

So what does this mean for Texas?

First of all, it's good news. You can see that the projections show that San Antonio, Houston, and Peoria all need to win 80% of their games from here on out to have a chance at the playoffs. San Antonio has been heating up though and could honestly get an 80% winning rate the rest of the way out. Trade deadline deals may weaken their team beyond redemption, however.

Texas only needs to win 58.3% of their games (21/36 points) to realistically go to the playoffs. I say 'only' just because of the larger numbers required for the #5, #6, and #7 teams. You may also notice that while a #1 seed would require 33/36 points, a #2 seed would only require 24/36 points.

Now, I will grant that the head-to-head matchups remaining in the season between all of the West Division teams certainly complicate this model. However, I feel like these data give creedence to a lot of things we already know about the division playoff race.

I support a division that is less awesome than the West Division. Do you have data for me, too?

I've done this for the other divisions and posted the results below. Please note that the "L" symbol indicates that a team is a "Lock" for getting at least that position in the final rankings. Also, when a team is a lock or eliminated from 4th place contention, the REQ% column is no longer valid for that team.

North

SEED

TEAM

GP

PTS

PROJ

#1

#2

#3

#4

REQ%

1

Hamilton

62

88

114

26

2

1

L

--

3

Rochester

62

70

90

E

20

19

15

0.417

2

Abbotsford

65

72

89

E

18

17

13

0.433

4

Manitoba

64

68

85

E

22

21

17

0.531

5

Lake Erie

62

63

81

E

27

26

22

0.611

6

Toronto

63

58

74

E

32

31

27

0.794

7

Grand Rapids

62

54

70

E

36

35

31

0.861

East

SEED

TEAM

GP

PTS

PROJ

#1

#2

#3

#4

REQ%

1

Hershey

61

96

126

30

L

L

L

--

2

Albany

63

72

91

E

19

16

13

0.382

3

Norfolk

64

70

88

E

21

18

15

0.469

4

W-B/S

61

65

85

E

26

23

20

0.526

5

Adirondack

61

60

79

E

31

28

25

0.658

6

Syracuse

61

58

76

E

33

30

27

0.711

7

Binghamton

60

53

71

E

38

35

32

0.800

Atlantic*

SEED

TEAM

GP

PTS

PROJ

#1

#2

#3

#4

REQ%

1

Worcester

61

79

104

25

23

15

12

0.316

2

Portland

61

78

102

26

24

16

13

0.342

3

Manchester

62

73

94

31

29

21

18

0.500

4

Lowell

63

72

91

32

30

22

19

0.559

5

Providence

62

65

84

E

E

29

26

0.722

6

Bridgeport

63

63

80

E

E

31

28

0.824

7

Hartford

62

61

79

E

E

33

30

0.833

8

Springfield

64

52

65

E

E

E

E

--

* - Usually the top four teams in a division qualify for the playoffs but, from the AHL FAQ:

"There is one possible exception to the qualification rules in 2009-10: if the fifth-place team in the Atlantic Division finishes with more points than the fourth-place team in the East Division, it would cross over and compete in the East Division playoffs."

Providence is pretty close to achieving this and robbing the Penguins of a spot in the playoffs.

6 comments:

My season ticket renewal information is at home currently, but ticket prices do look like they will go up slightly for the playoffs. I can post tonight when I get home what the expected rate might be...

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