In this blog, CReAM Researchers and CReAM Fellows comment on recent events and on the current political debate. Below each article you can add comments.

Friday, 27 May 2016

Latest migration figures make no economic case for Brexit

By Ian Preston

Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM) at
University College London

There is an increasing focus on migration in the build up to
the EU referendum. It is arguably the key issue which Leave advocates feel
confident of having majority support on.
And headlines that proclaim migration to be nearing a “record high” fuel
the Brexit campaign’s calls to quit the EU and end the commitment to free
movement of labour.

As the last release of migration statistics before the
referendum, the latest quarterly figuresfrom
the UK’s Office for National Statistics assume heightened significance. While
they largely confirm what we already know, it is worth looking at some of the
detail.

Estimated net migration remains
historically high. The latest figures show a slight rise, although not by a
statistically significant amount. The figures released are not a comprehensive
count of everyone who has come and gone, but an estimate based principally on a sample
survey conducted at points of entry and exit.

They are therefore subject to sampling variation and the
magnitude of the recorded change is within the range statistically compatible
with no actual change from the previous quarter. There is nothing new therefore
to get excited about in the headline figure.

The long-term annual net migration figure of 333,000 is the
difference between a gross inflow of 630,000 people and an outflow of 297,000
people. So people are arriving at roughly twice the rate at which they are
leaving. What change the figures do record is a consequence of a fall in emigration (though
still statistically insignificant) rather than of a rise in immigration.

This illustrates a point that rises in net migration can be
as easily a result of fewer individuals leaving as of more coming. Is
insufficient emigration what worries those upset by migration numbers? It seems
unlikely.

A closer look at the
numbers

The Brexit debate is focused more on migration from within
the EU than immigration from outside and the ONS figures are also illuminating on this.
Net inflows of EU citizens (other than the UK) and non-EU citizens are very
similar: 184,000 and 188,000 respectively. So are the gross inflows, 270,000
and 277,000. Whether measured net or gross, EU immigration therefore accounts
for about half of the total.

The statistics show that work is the most common reason for
immigration, accounting for 308,000 arrivals, 58% of whom had a definite job to
go to and the rest arriving with the intention of looking for work. Many more
of these were EU citizens (61%) than were from outside the EU (24%). The number
is currently rising.

By contrast, the numbers arriving for study fell from
191,000 to 167,000 and these were mainly from outside the EU (72%) rather than
from inside (23%). The number of those coming to accompany or join others, for
example for marriage or family reunion, were smaller than either labour or
student migration at 73,000.

The number of asylum applications, despite its prominence in
much discussion, was lower than any of these, although rising – about 42,000 in
the year to March 2016, with about 12,000 applications granted over the same
period.

An ill-judged aim

The headline figure of more than 300,000 net migration is a
continuing embarrassment to the government because of its aspiration to keep this below 100,000. Obviously, they
are nowhere near to achieving that, but to many there is something seriously
ill-judged in the aim itself.

A net immigration target is a target for the difference
between two large numbers – immigration and emigration – only one of which the
government has any ability to control. Furthermore, its influence even over
immigration is diminished by the EU commitment to free movement of labour,
particularly when half of the gross inflow is EU citizens, largely coming to
the UK to work.

The economic case is therefore clear – immigration has not
been bad for the UK. But even voters who think it has should be wary of
believing that Brexit would allow Britain to withdraw from freedom of movement
without other high economic costs.

Ian
Preston is the Deputy Director of CReAM and Professor in the
Department of Economics at UCL.