Over the past several months, I’ve taken a break from
blogging.Honestly, between work and
family commitments, I’ve been too busy to devote much “brain-width” to this
hobby.I’ve been planning to restart my
blogging when things became less hectic.I can never tell from week to week if this will become a regular thing
for me, but it’s something I do enjoy and who knows, you might see more from
me.Something very interesting over the
past week prompted me to write though, so I wanted to share some thoughts on
the NB Liberal leadership race.

Over the past year, the New Brunswick Liberal party has been
rebuilding itself after the decisive defeat in September 2010.As you may know, there is a leadership race well
underway with three candidates – Nick
Duivenvoorden, Brian Gallant
and Mike Murphy.The convention where the leader will be
chosen is quickly approaching, scheduled for October 27 in Moncton.The group of people managing the leadership campaign
on behalf of the Liberal Party have done a fabulous job engaging the party
grassroots in the race.Recently, it was
revealed that over 19,000 New Brunswickers have registered to vote for the new
leader.

As the date of the convention approaches, the race is
heating up.On October 2, the Mike
Murphy campaign released a
poll of average New Brunswickers on the Liberal leadership race.It
was later revealed that the poll was designed and funded by the Murphy
campaign, and Corporate Research Associates, a
local polling firm, was engaged to conduct the survey.It’s almost a week later but pundits and
analysts are still talking about it.

On the surface, the poll had some encouraging news for the
Murphy campaign.It asked if the
respondents could name any of the candidates for the leadership, which
candidate would the respondents support the most, and which candidate would be
in the best decision to defeat Alward in the next election.In every case, Mike Murphy led Brian Gallant
and his rivals, often by a significant margin.

The Murphy campaign engaged in a bit of spin to remove those
who were undecided (answered “don’t know/no opinion”) to make the margins for
Murphy look larger.For example, with
the undecided removed 56% of decided respondents think Murphy is better
positioned than Brian and Nick to defeat the Alward government in the next
election.Not surprisingly, the poll shows
that newcomer Gallant has less name recognition than Mike Murphy with New
Brunswickers, which may move some votes. But, while this poll isn’t great news for
Gallant, it’s not all that bad either because it’s hardly a ringing endorsement
of anybody at all.

What was revealing for me is that out of the 604 people
surveyed, 78% of them couldn’t name a single candidate for the leadership.At this point in the campaign, if a person
can’t name at least one candidate, it’s probably safe to say that they are
completely unaware of the race.Another
2% named people who weren’t running at all (1% named Dominic Leblanc, I’m still
wondering who the other 1% named… Victor Boudreau?Shawn Graham?Frank McKenna?).Only 20% of the
people polled could name any of the three candidates for the Liberal
leadership.

When asked who the respondent would support for the Liberal
Leadership, the vast majority (42%) said “don’t know”.When asked who is in the best position to
beat David Alward, the majority (47%) also said “don’t know”.This makes sense to me because if you call someone
to ask about the Liberal leadership race and 78% have never heard of it,
“don’t know” is what you’d expect them to say to the second and third question.Or, if you heard a name you recognized in the
second question, you’d probably pick that one to avoid sounding embarrassingly
unaware of current events.

I can almost hear how the typical polling call went:

CRA: “Hi, this is Wendy from CRA conducting a
poll on New Brunswick politics.Do you
have time to answer 3 questions?”

Respondent: “Hi,… ummm.Okay, I guess.”

CRA: “Can you name any of the declared
candidates for leader of the Liberal Party?”

Respondent: “The what now?”

CRA: “Leadership race for the Liberal Party? Can
you name any of the declared candidates for leadership?”

Respondent: “Ahhh… listen Wendy, I don’t get the
paper.No idea.”

CRA: “That’s okay.Which of the following three candidates would
you personally support the most – Mike Murphy, Brian Gallant, or Nick Duivenvoorden?”

Respondent: Didn’t she just hear that I have no idea
who is running? “Um, Wendy… I have no opinion.”

CRA: “Sure, that’s fine.One last question - of these three
candidates, which one, in your opinion, would be in the best position to defeat
the Conservative Government in the next election?”

Respondent: Wow, how many times do I have to say
I don’t know? “Gotta go, take care Wendy.”

Personally, I’m supporting Brian Gallant on October 27, but
Mike is a good second choice for me.Either
of these talented guys would make a fine choice for the NB Liberal leader, and
have unique talents and strengths.Seriously,
pick one that best aligns with your views and the Liberal Party will be
fine (um, sorry Nick.You’re a great guy
but I don’t think you’re ready).

If one hung around the most active social media forum on the
Liberal leadership – the #nblibleader
hashtag on Twitter - you would see some pretty awful exchanges between supporters
of the leadership candidates.Supporters
of both leading candidates have been exchanging misinformation, insulting characterizations, and distortions
for months.Keep in mind, these people
are on the same team.I’ve participated
in a couple of exchanges when I thought others were unfairly distorting the
positions of candidates.In one case, I
was called a coward and a liar for my troubles… wow.Suffice it to say that I avoided these
strident observers after that.Then, there
are those ugly leaked emails from the Murphy campaign – good grief.Meanwhile, 78% of the province has never
heard of any of this drama.

There’s 19 days of this race left, and then over 19,000 Liberals
will choose their next leader. Afterwards,
Liberals have a lot of work left to do to heal the rifts, rebuild the party and
get back in touch with the rest of the province.As successful as the campaign has been at reengaging
a demoralized party, it has not captured the imagination of the
electorate.Even though Liberals should
be rightfully elated in the level of engagement in this leadership race, remember when this is all over everyone will need to come back
together on the same side and get to work.

Passion and engagement are great, but don’t say anything you
can’t take back folks.If the Liberals
have a prayer of replacing the Alward government in the next election, they
are going to need to work together to convince the 80% of the province who are thankfully
unaware of any of this muck.There’s a
lot to be proud of happening in this race, and there’s a big job ahead.Make sure that everyone is still on the team
three weeks from now.

"The experience of Penobsquis residents serves as a useful case study as we judge how well the provincial government will protect citizens.

"The premier tells us that we will have the toughest regulations in North America to ensure that the resource can be extracted safely.

"However, I sincerely doubt that citizens of Penobsquis feel that the government is standing up for them in their conflict with industry. Can we truly count on government to protect us if something goes wrong at one or more of the well pads?...

"For me, the key consideration around fracking boils down to a question of risk... Opponents do not seem to want to take any environmental risks for the purposes of gaining new revenue for the provincial coffers, creating employment and fostering prosperity. If the resource just remained buried in the Carboniferous Maritimes Basin in perpetuity, they wouldn’t be fussed at all."