October 2012

10/31/2012

This map of the upper-level winds several miles aloft shows the strongest winds, i.e. the jet stream, highlighted in blue. Note the huge trough in the East, which was responsible for pulling Sandy from far offshore back westward into the United States. Out west, another smaller dip in the jet can be seen moving into the Pacific Northwest. That will amplify as it moves east by later in the weekend, and could fuel some energy for a weak coastal system along the mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday night.

10/30/2012

Wind gusts never exceeded 40mph at RIC last night, and are only expected to weaken from here. The brunt of Sandy was felt much farther north and northeast of metro Richmond. Wind warnings/advisories have been dropped for Central VA, but continue for northern and western VA.

Roughly 200,000 people are without power across Virginia, but the large majority is near D.C. and along the northern edge of the Northern Neck. Safe to say Richmond was spared from any widespread damage.

This is the latest map showing all of the weather advisories, watches, and warnings in effect over the region. Look a bit confusing? Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm warnings, Flood Watches, Flood Warnings, High Wind Warnings, Wind Advisories... there's more, but you get the idea. Not your ordinary weather day!

This map looks decidedly tropical, even as Sandy transitions to a post-tropical storm. Rain so far has been coming down in buckets along the Chesapeake Bay and before 10am it had rained well less than an inch along I-95.

Check the colors and the legend:

Crazy: In only 60 miles, the rain goes from around 0.30" in Richmond to more like a foot on the eastern tips of Lancaster and Northumberland counties.

That gradient should even out a little this afternoon and tonight as rain band are oriented more East/West vs. North/South. We think Southern Virginia will be much drier than Northern VA for the rest of the storm.

Sandy is now moving NNW at 20mph. As she gets closer, winds get stronger. Power outages likely this evening and tonight with 60mph+ gusts possible in Richmond.Here's the latest one-page briefing from the NWS Wakefield:

The High Wind Warning has been extended farther into Central Virginia to include Richmond, Petersburg, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Hanover, Henrico, Chesterfield, and Prince George. As Sandy reaches southern New Jersey sometime late tonight, winds will increase substantially. Be prepared for possible power outages overnight as wind gusts could approach 60mph. Gusts will be higher across the Northern Neck through the D.C. metro area.

Winds could gust around 50mph by late afternoon. Strongest winds continue overnight.

10/28/2012

This is the RPM model forecast for just before sunrise Tuesday. Air aloft could certainly be cold enough for snow, and this model indicates that at least a few wet flakes will be possible, even over Central Virginia.