Monthly Archives: May 2015

Big day Thursday off a fantastic portfolio Wednesday. Approaching our 27th anniversary with Joe Duffy’s best public, Joe Duffy’s Picks is 10-4 the last 14 including the Game of the Month at +163 on Texas. So, do you still want to be on the outside looking on or are you sick and tired of settling?

NBA

Wise Guy

CLEVELAND +2 Atlanta

It looks like DeMarre Carroll will play. If anything, I was worried that Atlanta would rally around the injury and pull out a win. Truthfully if Carroll is ruled out and the line swings to -2 the other way, I will middle the game. So grab Cleveland at the widely available +2.

Cavs are easily the better team and the run Atlanta made at the end masked it. It is only a matter of whether or not a nice middle opportunity comes up.

MLB

Wise Guy

TEXAS (LEWIS +163) NY Yankees (Pineda)

AL Game of the Month

The Yankees are 1-7 the last eight. They have has a slugging percentage of just .300 the last seven. Colby Lewis has an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP Of 1.120 for the season. On the road it is a staggering 2.55 and 1.216.

Texas has a slugging percentage edge of .152 higher in their last five games. Texas is 11-1 road versus an opponent with a winning home record.

NHL

Major

TAMPA -130 NY Rangers

Tampa has taken control of the series and now Henrik Lundqvist has gone from the rock of the team to sieve. NY has no answer for the Lightening top line. We may see a multiple goal win here.

Oops, we did it again. Joe Duffy’s Picks 8-3 the last two days. It will be such a long and hot summer for the bookmakers. Again. Too bad. This is what you pay us to do!

NBA

Major

HOUSTON +10.5 Golden State

Truthfully I wish overrated Dwight Howard was out and the line adjusted. He is overrated, though from a straight up standpoint, of course they are better with him. Big playoff underdogs off a loss have been a great bet.

The Warriors got their win, so there is not a sense of urgency for a blowout. The Rockets clearly have been resilient. This game goes down to the wire.

MLB

Wise Guy

LA ANGELS (SHOEMAKER +101) Toronto (Dickey)

The Angels are 10-4 the last 14. Toronto is 2-9 the last 11. The road team is 6-1 in Shoemaker starts and Toronto is 12-1 with him on the road since last year. Toronto is 2-6 with RA Dickey. Dickey has been lit up for 13 ER in 11 IP. Dickey has a 7.34 ERA in his last five starts.

Going back to last year, Angels are 54-24 in their last 78 vs. a team with a losing record.

Philadelphia-Colorado OVER 9.5 (Williams-De La Rosa)

Day Total of the Month

One of those teams or both could put the game over the total themselves. Jorge De La Rosa has a home ERA and WHIP of 11.45 and 2.455. Jerome Williams road numbers are 8.16 and 1.954. But of course playing at Coors Field will be the cure, right? Philly has an OPS of .819 their last seven games.

Major

TAMPA (COLOME -109) Oakland (Chavez)

This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.

We have reduced the number of such picks after refining the metrics to raise the winning percentage. In short we have more sources that must validate it is widely authenticated.

Nice 5-2 night for Joe Duffy’s Picks. It is not that far off from what we have done for 27 years, now at OffshoreInsiders.com

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.

As a college graduate, Joe Duffy apologizes for lack of apostrophes and quotations. There is a compatibility issue with Word and php updates that cause issues.

NBA

Wise Guy

CLEVELAND +1 Atlanta

Yes the Kevin Love injury is big but Kyrie Irving will play. The Adrienne Barbeau theory applies. The deeper we get into the playoffs, the more top heavy a team needs to be.

Yes the Hawks have the depth, but Cleveland has a much better 1-2 punch led by one of the best players off all-time who came to Cleveland to win his hometown a championship. Atlanta swept Cleveland, but King James has much more to prove now, while Atlanta had the chip on their shoulder during the regular season.

Cleveland has best net rating in the NBA playoffs at 9.5 to just 3.9 for Atlanta. Net rating is the different between offensive and defensive efficiency.

Atlanta has two more losses in the postseason despite playing the worst team in the postseason Brooklyn and a Washington team in which their star player Kevin Wall for missed three games, then played two hurt.

Cleveland meanwhile played a Bulls team with Derrick Rose back. Cleveland is without question the better team and should be the favorite.

NHL

Major

TAMPA -135 NY Rangers

It is an outsourced pick, previous called a competitor consensus, but renamed to more accurately reflect the parameters. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side or if we are neutral on a pick, but at least two elite sources or contacts have a bet sans any conflicting bets from said sources, it is a bet for us as an outsourced pick.

Tampa-NY Rangers UNDER 5

It is an outsourced pick, previous called a competitor consensus, but renamed to more accurately reflect the parameters. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side or if we are neutral on a pick, but at least two elite sources or contacts have a bet sans any conflicting bets from said sources, it is a bet for us as an outsourced pick.

MLB

Wise Guy

NY METS (COLON -103) St. Louis (Martinez)

Go with home underdogs with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start, stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season is +107.1 and 298-240 despite being an underdog every game.

The Mets are 16-5 at home. Carlos Martinez is getting drilled in last three starts his ERA is 10.29 with a 2.375 WHIP. NY is 6-2 with Colon.

Major

WASHINGTON (ZIMMERMAN -137) NY Yankees (Warren)

Overachieving NY has lost 6-of-7. Once underachieving Washington is 15-4 the last 19. We do have an angle that says teams with winning percentage at .550 or better in a big slump is a great fade. Adam Warren has gotten a lot of support, but his road ERA is 6.04.

NY has an OPS of just .569 their last seven games. Washington in the same span is .868. NY had the DH in all but one, Washington did not in all but one.

NY Mets-St. Louis OVER 7

Carlos Martinez is getting drilled in last three starts his ERA is 10.29 with a 2.375 WHIP. Ageing Bartolo Colon has given up 10 runs, nine earned in his last 11 IP. He has been tagged for 15 hits.

LA ANGELS (WEAVER +109) Toronto (Hutchison)

It is an outsourced pick, previous called a competitor consensus, but renamed to more accurately reflect the parameters. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side or if we are neutral on a pick, but at least two elite sources or contacts have a bet sans any conflicting bets from said sources, it is a bet for us as an outsourced pick.