Here is the expected visa bulletin movement for fiscal year 2014 for EB2 India.

February 2014: 15 Nov 2004March 2014: 15 Nov 2004April 2014:15 Nov 2004May 2014: 15 Nov 2004June 2014: 15 Nov 2004July 2014 - September 2014: Around February 2009
Why is the dates going to stay at this date till around June 2014? The
main reason is the supply of visa numbers are fixed by congress to around 2800
per country per year in EB2 category. This comes out to 2800/12 = 233
visas per month for EB2 India.

Though the supply of
visa numbers is fixed, the demand is not. Due to EB3 to EB2 porting
(where people in EB3 category can "upgrade" to EB2), there continues to
be high demand for EB2 visas.

Based on
the math above, if more than 233 people are upgrading from EB3 to EB2
category every month, the dates for EB2 will not move at all. If demand
is much higher than 233 per month, than the dates could retrogress
further.

The only thing preventing dates from retrogressing further is if it gets spillovers from other categories. EB category is expected to receive around 10,000 visa spillovers from FB category. Since the dates for EB2
china has already reached 2008, most (if not all) of the visa spillovers
should go to EB2 India.

Based on EB I-485 pending statistics,
there are over 12,000 pending application in EB3 till Sept 2004 and
about 700 pending application in EB2 till Sept 2004. This means there is
a high chance that dates will move forward for EB2 India between July 2014 and September 2014 visa bulletins.

One of the
"advantages" of holding the dates at November 2004 for next few months for
EB2 India is preadjudication. This means that for most EB2 people who
had already submitted their I485 application, USCIS would be working on
their application and preadjudicating them. This means their I485
application would be approved and is simply waiting for a visa number to
be available. So whenever the dates move forward from November 2004, these
people with preadjudicated cases will be in front of the line.

After
the dates move forward and new people who start applying (including
those who upgrade from EB3) will be in the "back" of the line - since
the processing time for EB I-485 application is currently 4+ months.

Per the latest update, there is less demand for EB5 China. This means more visas will flow to EB2.

If you are not familiar with spillovers, it means visas unused in other categories will flow "upwards" as follows:

EB4 + EB5 --> EB1 -- > EB2 --> EB2 (India + China) --> EB3

However,
EB2 India and China will use up all possible spillovers, so there wont
be any spillovers to EB3 category. This is one of the reason many in EB3
are waiting for over 10 years and are eager to upgrade from EB3 to EB2
(from all countries - not just India).

We recommend checking the
demand data and I-485 pending inventory every month to get an idea of
current demand and hence how much visa would be available. This would
give a general idea of how further the dates will move forward each
month.

79 comments:

Find it totally Ridiculous when EB gets spillover from FB category because DOS ain't doing their job properly and FB is retrogressed as well. I just hope DOS does their job properly and congress takes action with respect to this.

It is possible for dates to move to March 2009 later. We will have to wait for the latest data from USCIS to identify the actual demand to estimate the dates. They should release the latest I-485 pending inventory soon.

It's not just based on that. Amazon is including the expected spillovers that have to be allotted by the last quarter of the fiscal year (July-September, 2014). They are going to number in the thousands since the other countries won't use them, and they will go to waste if they're not allocated to oversubscribed countries by the end of the fiscal year.

EB2 India should receive spillovers for both EB and FB categories. What I meant is if they do not receive any spillovers, dates may not move since porting is using up all quota set for EB2 India category.

EB3 Philippines is expected to move forward at around 3-6 weeks per month. There could be a big jump around May 2014. I will add a short blog post about EB3 Philippines. Thank you for the suggestion. :)

Yes, the porting is currently using up EB2 India quota of 2,802 visas. Hence the DOS has retrogressed dates to 2004 to reduce porting.

They will then move dates again around July 2014 after receiving spillovers from EB and FB category, This will give the original EB2 applicants opportunity to have their applications approved. Else if they do not retrogressed dates, EB3 India with PD from 2004 to 2007 porting to EB2 India will use up all spillovers also.

First off, kudos to you for yet another super-informative and insightful post.

You've mentioned 'preadjudication' in your article. How does it actually work? I understand that it refers to the USCIS working behind the scenes on cases that have already been filed but are currently waiting for the availability of a visa number. But does the outcome of preadjudication show up on the case status in any way? If the USCIS wants to issue an RFE or something like that based on the preadjudication process, would they still do it while the case is waiting for a visa to become available?

Hi, My PD is apr 2010 and have 485 pending. So is there a possibility that my application is preadjudicated. And if it is does it mean that that my application can get approved even if the dates dont move till 2010

Being Sarcastic here ..why all these comments resembles to Astrology Blog ?? I am XX years old, Male, living @ XX place... when i will get married or when i will meet my love or job ??

If these predictions makes you all happy then by all means ..lets continue ...atleast we are happy because of a hope.

My 2 cents to everyone .. please stop asking about the specific cases or individual cases ... Lets discuss about the current situation, any alternatives or any other opportunity ....any improvement ....all those things would help ..rather than asking My PD is XX and when I will get my GC.

Again, i am not trying to be negative over here .. Please just be constructive and encourage others ....

Amazon,I have a question and hope the answer would be helpful to others as well:

Say, the applicant applied for I-485. After a while, the dates are retrogressed. Then eventually, when the dates are current instead of GC, there is an RFE issued for I-485 (AOS) ... and the applicant / attorney reply to the RFE in a timely fashion... Meanwhile, the dates get retrogressed again.

The question is: Does the applicant need to wait until the priority dates move again to current to receive the GC or will the applicant receive the GC because the officer looked into the case already in the past.

In your example, if OP has been issued RFE, it is a good thing. This means VO is actively looking in OP file, If RFE is responded in time, the application will be approved. A visa no is reserved(most likely) prior to issuing RFE.

My priority date is May 10th 2007, EB2 category. I filed my application in April 2012. Since then I received 2 RFEs mostly about my employment. We replied to both. Even though my PD was not current I still got the interview call on 2nd May. The interview was focussed on the marriage and employment (My wife is a beneficiary). Our attorney was surprised that we received an interview call since our PD had not been current since last december. We were then asked to have biometrics done again since our old fingerprints were expire because they were more than a year old (God knows how are 'fingerprints' supposed to expire). The visa officer said that everything is fine except for the fact that our biometrics have expired and the PD is not current otherwise she would have issued us the GC right away. Anyways we are now done with all that and latest news I received from USCIS is that they transferred our case to a new office for further processing. When do you think we might get our GC?

Sorry, the right question is not 'when do I get our GC' but it is 'when do you think our priority date might be current'? Based on reading your blog it seems like we should expect that to happen next month. Is that correct?

Amazon,Just as predicted EB2 India priority dates moved forward in the July Bulletin. Is it too early to ask for: any prediction on what will be the priority date after the end of fiscal year 2014 for EB2 India.If there is as retrogression, how far back will it be. Can you shed some light based on your demand data analysis?

Anyone on this blog EB3 to EB2 India porters that has filed I-485 last year or prior to that received GC approvals as this category moved forward to 1 Sept 2008? Seems like Strait EB2 India candidates are getting approved but no porters so far. Please reply.

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