OPEC to win back lost market from US shale by 2035 – BP

The US shale boom will lose steam in the next decade opening the way for OPEC members to regain their share of the global market as the cartel’s oil production will hit a new record by the 2030’s, says the BP energy outlook.

The global oil supply glut, mostly attributed to the booming US
shale industry, has sent prices plummeting more than 50 percent
over the past year. Oil production in the US has increased to 9
million barrels per day, close to the historical highs of the
1970’s. Overall, BP sees
the US becoming self-sufficient in oil by the 2030s, with North
America becoming a net oil exporter“over the next few years.”

“The story is that over
time the oil market will grow out of its current weakness,
reflecting the call that tight oil does not continue to grow so
rapidly and demand will grow sufficiently to absorb it,”Dale added.

The company expects the
following slowdown in US shale production will allow Middle East
output to return its lost positions within a decade.

OPEC will then gain
ground exceeding the record of 2007 when production reached 32
million barrels per day, and by 2035 its share in the world oil
market will fully recover to 40 percent, which is close to the
average of the last two decades, says the report.

The company expects the Middle East to remain the largest region
in net energy exports while its share will fall from 46 percent
in 2013 to 36 percent in 2035. Russia will remain the world’s
largest energy exporting country.

Rapid economic expansion of China and India will spur demand for
energy over the next two decades, the report says. China will
become the world's largest consumer of oil outstripping the
United States by the 2030’s.