The Mets probably made the right move, maybe even a great move, in trading R.A. Dickey. They got one of the top prospects in baseball and arguably the top catching prospect. ...

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By KEVIN GLEASON

recordonline.com

By KEVIN GLEASON

Posted Dec. 18, 2012 at 2:00 AM

By KEVIN GLEASON

Posted Dec. 18, 2012 at 2:00 AM

» Social News

The Mets probably made the right move, maybe even a great move, in trading R.A. Dickey. They got one of the top prospects in baseball and arguably the top catching prospect. They got a serviceable catcher, John Buck, to hold the fort until Travis d'Arnaud is ready for the bigs. And they shed their roster of Josh Thole, the very definition of addition by subtraction.

Yet the trade comes with a frightening caveat for Mets fans. The Mets traded a seemingly sure thing in Dickey mainly for a less-than sure thing. And if you are a Mets fan who has lived through a half-decade of miserable luck on top of bad baseball, you are scared sick of whether d'Arnaud will become the player he's supposed to become.

The kid will turn 24 on Feb. 10. Baseball America rated d'Arnaud its No. 17 prospect prior to the 2012 season. He hits for power — witness 16 home runs in 303 bats in Triple-A last season — and average. He batted .333 in Triple-A and .311 the previous season in Double-A.

Oh, and he also is coming off a season-ending torn posterior cruciate ligament injury to his left knee in late June. The news is downright frightening for fans who have witnessed the injury-plagued luckless world of the Mets.

Will d'Arnaud develop into a borderline All-Star, or will he be the second coming of Fernando Martinez?

Baseball America named Martinez the Mets' No. 1 prospect for both 2007 and 2008. Scout.com ranked Martinez the Mets' top prospect in 2009 and 2010. That's four years of maintaining the often cursed label of "top prospect."

Martinez was badly overmatched by the time he reached New York in 2009. He hit .183 with two home runs and 12 RBI in 131 at-bats across parts of 2009-11. He developed a long history of injuries, including arthritic knees.

The Mets finally conceded Martinez was a bust. They waived him in January. The Astros claimed Martinez and he hit .237 with six homers and 14 RBI in 41 games this past season. Martinez turned 24 in October.

Will d'Arnaud help the Mets become a playoff contender for years to come, or keep fans wondering about that potential a la right-hander Jenrry Mejia?

Mejia was the Mets' No. 1 prospect according to the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book. And he might one day unveil his lights-out stuff in the majors. But he left an April 2011 start because of elbow discomfort and was diagnosed with a complete tear of his medial collateral ligament. Mejia made it back to the majors this past September, but remains an uncertain piece to the Mets' future.

It's important to judge the Dickey trade objectively and free of emotion. He became one of the team's most popular players in years, at least in the eyes of fans, and wove an inspiring tale from journeyman to knuckleball sensation. He's a terrific story.

But it's hard to imagine Dickey approaching, no less duplicating, his 20-win season that earned him the National League Cy Young Award. He won eight games in 2011 and 11 games in 2010. His development of the knuckler comes with a warning sign because of the uncertainties attached to maintaining mastery over the quirky pitch.

The Mets added a potential upper-tier big-league catcher. Those aren't available very often. But the "potential" part is a pretty scary "prospect" for Mets fans.