Belize Weather Forecast: May 28, 2013

General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS:
Moist and unstable conditions will continue to domminate our weather.
Advisories:*Small Craft Caution: Operators of small craft should exercise caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas.*24-hour forecast:
Cloudy to overcast skies with some showers, thunderstorms or periods of rain over most areas, especially over northern and inland areas today and over the south and coast tonight.
Winds:
East 10-20 knots becoming gusty near showers and thunderstorms.
Marine Forecast: Today:
Winds: East 10-20 kts. Becoming gusty near showers and thunderstorms.; seas: Choppy but at times rough.; waves: 3-5 ft.; some showers, thunderstorms or periods of rain mostly north.
Outlook:
Tuesday night:- E-SE 10-20 kts. With occnl higher gusts.; seas: Moderate - rough.; waves: 4-7 ft.; some showers, thunderstorms or periods of rain.
Sea Surface Temp (°F): 81
Outlook:
For Wed. and Wed. night is for continuing cloudy skies with some showers and thunderstorms over most areas.

OUTLOOK:
DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.50-1.00 INCH ARE FORECAST FOR HILLY, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF BELIZE THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH THE ACTIVITY SPEADING NORTHWARD BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN REGENERATING OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAILY RAINFALL RATES COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE HILLY TERRAIN OF NORTHERN TOLEDO DISTRICT, STANN CREEK AND CAYO DISTRICTS. THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDNERSTORMS IN THE REGION MARKS THE ONSET OF THE 2013 RAINY SEASON ACROSS THE COUNTRY OF BELIZE.

TROPICAL WEATHER SCENARIO: NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BRING MORE MOSITURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION DURING THIS WORKING WEEK. NO TROPICAL CYCLONE DETECTED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BASIN AT PRESENT AND NONE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE TO FIVE DAYS.

Here is the CPC Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Week 2. The discussion points to a Kelvin wave/MJO induced instability in the NW Caribbean before June 4, which could favor the development of a disturbance in the area. As we can recall the NW Caribbean is a favorable region for early season TC to develop, so we must remain vigilant.

Have a pleasant morning and a good week.

RFrutos

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion

Last Updated: 05.21.13 Valid: 05.22.13 - 06.04.13

The Week-2 outlook is based on the expectation of a renewed organization of the MJO with its enhanced phase across the Western Hemisphere and Africa. Although dynamical MJO index forecasts differ on the exact evolution of the MJO signal, models generally agree on the enhanced phase of the MJO centered over the Western Hemisphere. Below average rainfall is expected to continue across the Philippines and expand east across the western Pacific Ocean. The Indian Ocean, south India, Sri Lanka, and western Africa are expected to become more convectively active which is consistent with MJO precipitation composites. Above average rainfall is likely to persist across the eastern Pacific Ocean, Central America, and shift east into the western Caribbean Sea. Warmer than normal SSTs and enhanced convection maintains elevated chances for tropical cyclone development across the eastern Pacific Ocean. A large scale ridge predicted over the southern CONUS and Gulf of Mexico during Week-2 is expected to reduce wind shear and provide favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Due to the reduced wind shear in an area of enhanced convection, the development of an early season tropical cyclone is favored for the northwest Caribbean Sea. The GFS model has been consistent in developing a potential tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea in early June.

Rainfall & Storminess Will Only Increase Further Rest Of This Week Across The Western Caribbean; Tropical Storm May Form In The Westernmost Caribbean Next Week With A Track Towards The Florida Peninsula By The Weekend Of June 8th & 9th
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:33 am

Satellite imagery this morning is showing an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the western Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Central America and the Cayman Islands. This increase in moisture is associated with the very much advertised upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation that I have been discussing for the last couple of weeks or so. Additionally, a monsoonal trough of low pressure has setup near Panama which is helping to facilitate the shower and thunderstorm activity. I do believe, eventually, this entire mess will organize into our first tropical storm of the season next week which may end up tracking towards the Florida Peninsula.

It seems the system we will need to watch that may spark this development is a developing tropical depression in the eastern Pacific. This tropical cyclone is expected to track northward into southern Mexico by later this week and the energy from this system may get pulled into the western Caribbean towards next week where a new tropical cyclone may develop. The latest European model guidance forecasts that this tropical cyclone will develop by about Wednesday and Thursday of next week and the upper level pattern is such that a track towards the west coast of Florida by the weekend of June 8th & 9th would seem possible.

The GFS model guidance points to a festering low pressure system that sits over the Yucatan Peninsula for much of next week before it finally develops into a tropical cyclone in the southern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday. This tropical cyclone then tracks northeastward making landfall near Tampa next Friday. The Canadian model guidance is even quicker with development with a tropical system forming in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. This system then is forecast to track northeastward up the Eastern Seaboard of the United States early next week.

One thing is for sure is that it is going to be a very wet rest of the week across much of the western Caribbean with heavy rainfall likely from Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula to Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Very wet weather with a heavy rainfall threat is also expected across south Florida and the Florida Keys with up to five inches of rain expected between today and Friday morning. This heavy rain threat is then expected to spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula and also the Bahamas for next week.

My opinion is that the Canadian model guidance is way too fast with development and I think this will be a very slow developer and I am going towards a GFS/European model type forecast. This means that a very wet and sheared tropical storm may develop by about next Thursday or so just off of the coast of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. This system may then track northeastward and track across the Florida Peninsula during the weekend of June 8th & 9th and may be a very large rain maker for the Florida Peninsula.

Needless to say I am monitoring things very closely, so check back for further updates over the next several days as I will continue to have frequent updates.

All attention this morning is on the disturbance in the Eastern Pacific. No doubt this system will being life-threatening rains over the hilly terrain and the upper watershed regions of southern Mexico and western areas of northern Central America including Belize. We need to watch it closely.