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The early Democratic primary debate conundrum

Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaign subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.

— More than a dozen Democratic presidential primary hopefuls have already qualified for the first debate in June. Is it possible some candidates who meet the initial polling and fundraising criteria will be left off stage anyway?

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— Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) both posted strong fundraising numbers for the first quarter of 2019 as they prepare for expected tough reelection bids.

— In a new poll in Iowa, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg surged to third place — but he’s still in single digits, showing how fluid the primary is.

THE DEBATE STAGE — We’re roughly two and a half months out from the first Democratic presidential primary debates in June, and there is a plausible universe in which some candidates are left off the stage.

To briefly reiterate the ways to qualify for the debates: A candidate either needs to get 1 percent in three qualifying polls or have 65,000 unique donors, with a minimum of 200 unique donors in each of at least 20 states. If more than 20 candidates qualify, it goes to a series of tiebreakers: Candidates who hit both thresholds take priority, followed by highest polling average, followed by highest number of unique donors.

According to a Campaign Pro analysis, 13 declared candidates have already met the polling threshold (in no particular order): Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro, John Delaney, Beto O’Rourke, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Andrew Yang and Buttigieg. Additionally, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard tweeted that she qualified through the donor threshold (her campaign told Score they have hit 200 donors in more than 40 states). And this, of course, excludes former Vice President Joe Biden, who has easily crossed the polling threshold if (or when) he gets into the race.

If Biden declares, that brings us to 15 people on the stage. But more than five other people could be eyeing a debate podium. This includes declared candidates who have not hit the polling threshold and have not publicly said they’ve reached the donor mark, like Rep. Eric Swalwell or Marianne Williamson. But there’s also the prospective candidates who haven’t gotten in — which includes Stacey Abrams, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe or even a surprise candidate. Even if some don’t ultimately run, it is possible that someone will be on the outside looking in during the debates.

That’s where the tiebreakers become important, but parts of it are still unclear. A DNC official declined to discuss details about the tiebreakers with Score, saying “we will be communicating about the specifics to the campaigns and not commenting until after we do that.” But here are some of our most pressing unanswered questions: How exactly will the polling average be calculated? How are polls from the same pollster in the same demographic area treated in an average? How are polls that left out a candidate counted, and what if a candidate got less than 1 percent, but not zero? How exactly will donors be verified through ActBlue and NGP-VAN?

PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD — The early states are important, but many candidates are already looking ahead to Super Tuesday, where roughly 40 percent of pledged delegates will be decided. “In interviews, Democrats in these Super Tuesday states — a list that includes California, Texas, and a bevy of southern states — named Harris and Sanders as the candidates whose campaigns are doing the most outreach at this early stage, though that designation varied from state to state. Booker and Elizabeth Warren are also on the radar,” McClatchy’s Katie Glueck, Alex Roarty and Adam Wollner reported.

— Biden sought the support of segregationists in the Senate when he was fighting school busing in the 1970s, CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reported.

— The ideas primary continues for Warren: She rolled out a plan to impose a 7 percent tax on corporations making more than $100 million, POLITICO’s Brian Faler reported. POLITICO’s Alex Thompson also took a deep dive into Warren’s history as a young Republican in POLITICO Magazine.

THE CASH DASH — Ernst raised $1.7 million in the first quarter, with $2.8 million cash on hand, per Campaign Pro’s James Arkin. Gardner raised $2 million in the first quarter, with $3.4 million on hand, per James. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) raised $1.4 million and has $4.2 million on hand (FEC filing).

SHOW US THE MONEY — A group of 16 good government advocacy groups released an open letter to all the 2020 candidates, calling on them to voluntarily release their bundlers, POLITICO’s Maggie Severns reported. In 2016, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush both released some details about their bundlers, while President Donald Trump and other GOP candidates did not.

CAMPAIGN CASH — David Emadi, the director of Georgia’s ethics commission, “plans to subpoena bank records from the campaign of 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams and groups that raised money to help her,” The Atlanta-Journal Constitution’s James Salzer reported. “The investigations into the Abrams and [some Atlanta] mayoral campaigns came out of audits of contribution and expenditure reports candidates and political groups have to file”.

Abrams’ former campaign manager, Lauren Groh-Wargo, blasted the investigation: “The new ethics chief — a [now-Gov. Brian] Kemp donor and former Republican Party leader — is using his power to threaten and lob baseless partisan accusations at the former Abrams campaign”. Emadi was a former officer in a local county’s GOP.

HOUSE RECRUITMENT WATCH — Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan announced she will run again in IL-13. She narrowly lost to GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in 2018.

THE GOVERNOR’S MANSION — Louisiana state Sen. Sharon Hewitt said she will seek reelection instead of running for governor, likely setting the gubernatorial field at Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards and GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone, the Monroe News Star’s Greg Hilburn reported.

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A new Monmouth University poll in Iowahas a bump for Buttigieg. Biden is in first with 27 percent, followed by Sanders’ 16 percent. Buttigieg is in third with 9 percent, Harris and Warren are both at 7 percent and O’Rourke is at 6 percent. This was also the third qualifying poll for both Delaney and Yang (April 4-9, 351 likely Democratic caucus goers). And a reminder — it is still quite early!

— Some Georgia favorable/unfavorable numbers in a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution/UGA poll: 47 percent have a positive impression of GOP Sen. David Perdue while 25 percent have an unfavorable impression. Abrams is at parity: 45 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable. (774 registered voters, March 24-April 8).

THE SENATE MAP — Susan Rice, former President Barack Obama’s national security adviser, said she won’t challenge Sen. Collins, per the AP.

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About The Author : Zach Montellaro

Zach Montellaro is a Campaign Pro reporter and the author of the Morning Score. Before joining the campaign team he was the producer for POLITICO Playbook and co-authored the Playbook Power Briefing. He also previously worked at National Journal on the Hotline team.

Zach is an alumnus of The George Washington University. He’s also a native New Yorker and is perpetually disappointed by the New York Mets.