NPD: Tablets to Overtake Laptops in 2013

Well, that was fast -- less than three years after Apple jump-started a barely existent consumer tablet market, research firm NPD is betting that tablets will out-ship laptops for the first time this year.

Well, that was fastless than three years after Apple jump-started a barely existent consumer tablet market, research firm NPD is betting that tablets will out-ship laptops for the first time this year.

The latest edition of the NDP DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report pegs global tablet shipments hitting 240 million units in 2013. That would be 64 percent year-over-year growth for the product segment and easily outpace the research firm's forecast for worldwide laptop shipments, which NPD projects at 207 million units.

That turning of the tables will only grow more pronounced in the coming years, according to NPD. The number of tablets shipped in 2011 was roughly a third of the total number of laptops shipped but tablet shipments began to approach a 1:1 ratio to laptop shipments last year. The research firm sees that trend continuingby 2017, NPD projects tablets representing nearly 75 percent of the combined global tablet-laptop market.

"The tablet PC market saw increasing investments in North America in the second half of 2012, from major brands that tested not only new screen sizes and price points, but also unconventional business models to support their efforts. The subsequent increase in shipments and demand underscored the benefits of segmentation in the market as it drove rapid market expansion," NPD DisplaySearch analyst Richard Shim said in a statement.

While the 9.7-inch iPad kicked off the tablet craze and successive versions of Apple's iOS-driven device have remained the top selling slates on the market, the emergence of viable products with smaller screens running Android and other mobile operating systems will push tablets past laptops this year, according to NPD.

The research firm expects tablets with screen sizes ranging from 7 inches to 8 incheswhich now include Apple's iPad mini , of courseto account for 45 percent of shipments in 2013, or 108 million units. Unit shipments of the iPad and other 9.7-inch tablets are projected to be in the 40-million-unit range, or about 17 percent of the global market.

NPD predicted that North America will continue to be the largest regional market for tablets this year. The research firm figures about 85 million tablets will ship in North America, for a 35 percent share of the global market, followed by China with 65 million units shipped, or a 27 percent share.

What will the tablet market look like over the next few years? Things can change fast in consumer electronics, as tablets themselves demonstrate, but NPD is guessing that popular tablet form factors will stabilize over the next several years and a few non-mainstream niche sizes will hang on in the fringes of the market.

NPD figures that 7-inch tablets like Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's original Kindle Fire will trend down in terms of market share in the coming years, going from about 27 percent of the overall tablet market in 2012 to around a 12 to 13 percent share by 2015 and sticking there in successive years.

The big growth opportunity, according to the research firm, is in 7.9-inch tablets. Devices of that size only captured about 4 to 5 percent of the worldwide market last year, mainly due to the relatively late entry of the 7.9-inch iPad mini, but stand to explode in 2013 and potentially account for as much as 20 percent of the consumer tablet market, NPD said.

By 2017, NPD reckons the 7.9-inch form factor will be the best-selling among tablets with more than a quarter of the overall market. A handful of other tablet sizesincluding 7-inch, 8.9-inch, 9.7-inch, 10.1-inch, and 11.6-inchwill each have between 8 to 17 percent of the tablet market in the out years, the research firm predicted. Some niche sizes like 8.2 inches, 12.5 inches, and 13.1 inches will hang on in some markets with limited market share as well, according to NPD.

One major takeaway from NPD's far-ranging tablet forecast is the research firm's apparent belief that the full-sized iPad will be supplanted by the iPad mini and other 7.9-inch devices as the most popularly sized slates. The late Steve Jobs famously scoffed at the viability of a tablet significantly smaller than the first iPad, but Apple's introduction of the iPad mini last year obviously means attitudes in Cupertino have changed.

It's also worth noting that these sorts of forecasts almost inevitably come face to face with the shifting realities of consumer tech, so take all of this with a grain of salt. After all, a few years ago, nobody was even predicting that tablets would become a significant product category, let alone overtake laptops by 2013.

About the Author

Damon Poeter got his start in journalism working for the English-language daily newspaper The Nation in Bangkok, Thailand. He covered everything from local news to sports and entertainment before settling on technology in the mid-2000s. Prior to joining PCMag, Damon worked at CRN and the Gilroy Dispatch. He has also written for the San Francisco Ch... See Full Bio

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