Friday, May 23, 2014

2014 Michigan State House Races

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans currently hold a 59-51 majority, following a 63-47 majority after 2010. There are 40 open seats, 21 held by Republicans and 19 held by democrats. There are 30 open due to term-limits and 10 just seeking another office.

Republicans gained one new seat (73) and one existing seat (39) due to redistricting, but also lost one existing seat (55) in 2012. They also lost five incumbents (52, 71, 84, 91, 110), not counting party-switcher Roy Schmidt (76). They could have won several more seats with a more effective redistricting plan.

Democrats want to take back the state house, but face a difficult playing field. Of the Republican-held open seats, only 56 and possibly 65 are competitive. They will try to defeat some Republican incumbents, but it is not clear how they will beat incumbents this year that they couldn't defeat in 2012.

Meanwhile, Republicans will seek to gain seats. The best opportunity is the open 84, which was lost due to scandal in 2012. There are two lean dem open seats (21, 62) that may be competitive. Republicans will also try to defeat several incumbents who picked up seats in 2012 (25, 71, 91).

There are a number of interesting primaries in August. A bunch of Republican incumbents are being challenged due to their support of Medicaid expansion, Common Core, and the Detroit Bailout. Most will win easily, but there is the potential for a few to be surprised (39, 79, 107). The open seats feature more competitive primaries, many of which also feature establishment versus Tea Party battles. Establishment candidates are receiving support from the Chamber of Commerce and Great Lakes Education Project. More conservative candidates are receiving support from Americans for Prosperity and Madison Project Michigan.

The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012 state house result, 2012 Romney %, and political rating. I did not use 'likely' in the ratings. Candidates are labeled as establishment (E), Tea Party (T), and solidly conservative (C), when these labels clearly apply.