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Election Maps — Nov 5th — Election Eve Predictions

Last Tuesday I posted the information from four election map sites. I have posted at the end of this blog the information from today for those same sites. Not surprisingly, not one of the maps has gone completely unchanged. One map, the Real Clear Politics, solid electoral votes have not changed. The NYT: FiveThirtyEight has Obama with 22 more solid electoral votes (oops last week number said 237 it should have been 241), while Romney’s have not changed. The Huffington Post has Obama with 20 more Strong electoral votes, and Romney with 15 less. And, electoral-vote.com has Obama with fourteen more solid votes, and Romney also with 15 less.

The states in play are still playing. According to the FiveThirtyEight, 2 states have gone from Lean Obama to Likely Obama and 2 Toss-up states have gone to Lean Obama. Romney on the other hand has had a state move from Lean Romney to Toss-up. The Huffington Post has Ohio changed from Toss-up to Leans Obama, while North Carolina changed from Leans Romney to Toss-up. Real Clear Politics only has positive movement: Washington changed from Likely to Solid Obama, and Montana changed from Leans to Likely Romney. On the opposite side of the spectrum is electoral-vote.com, with the most changes. There have been negative changes for both Obama and Romney. Negative movement in the Obama column includes Michigan going from Strong to Likely, Pennsylvania going from Likely to Barely, and Colorado going from Barely to Toss-up. South Dakota from Strong to Likely, and North Carolina from Barely to Toss-up are the two negative changes in Romney’s column. There have also been positive changes, but only for Obama: Minnesota from Barely to Likely, and 3 Toss-up states, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia, to Barely.

Below are two tables comparing today’s information from the 4 sites. All but one has Obama with at least 277 electoral votes; Real Clear Politics has neither candidate with 277. Real Clear Politics also has more than double any other sites’ number of Toss-ups at 11. The second table looks at the states in play. All four sites agree on 7 states. All but the FiveThirtyEight agree on 3 more states. 14 states are considered in play by only Real Clear Politics and electoral-vote.com. And one state is considered in play by Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight, but not by the others.

Electoral Counts for Obama

Total

Solid

Likely

Lean

FiveThirtyEight

307.2*

303

28

12

Huffington Post

277

237

NA

40

Real Clear Politics

201

154

29

18

electoral-vote.com

294

179

38

77

Electoral Counts for Romney

Total

Solid

Likely

Lean

FiveThirtyEight

230.8*

206

16

0

Huffington Post

191

191

NA

0

Real Clear Politics

191

127

53

11

electoral-vote.com

220

139

52

29

Electoral Counts for Toss-ups

States

Electoral Votes

FiveThirtyEight

1

29

Huffington Post

5

70

Real Clear Politics

11

146

electoral-vote.com

2

24

*The estimated total is averaged from the FiveThirtyEight simulations — that is why it does not equal to the total of solid, Likely, and Lean.