An ultra-high-speed rail line between Vancouver and Portland would create hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions in economic benefits for the Vancouver-Seattle corridor, according to an economic analysis.

The analysis, which was paid for by Microsoft and trade unions, was recently added to a rail line study that was conducted by Washington state’s department of transportation and released in December.

The state’s report looked at three potential technologies and three possible routes for an ultra-high-speed rail line. The economic analysis focused on a seven-stop route between Vancouver International Airport and the Rose Quarter station in Portland which has the highest potential ridership of about two million annually by 2035.

The analysis assumes the use of maglev technology, which uses magnets to lift a train off its tracks and move it along a guideway at more than 400 km/h, reducing the time it takes to get from Vancouver to Seattle to under an hour. It pegs the project cost at around $40 billion.

FILES – A file picture taken on 31 December 2002 shows Shanghai’s commericial magnetic levitation train built and designed by German engineering giants Siemens and ThyssenKrupp.LIU JIN /
AFP/Getty Images

The memo focuses on the effects in the nine-county corridor in Washington state and in B.C., and looks at the employment and labour income impacts from construction and operation of the service, along with some wider economic spinoffs.

During the nine years (2025-2034) it’s expected to take to construct the rail line, the study estimated that 38,000 jobs would be created each year and there would be $29 billion in annual labour income.

Lindsay Meredith, professor emeritus at Simon Fraser University’s Beedie School of Business, said there is unquestionably value in creating temporary construction jobs, but the key is to look further into the future.

For the first 20 years of the rail line’s existence, operations and maintenance activities are expected to result in 3,000 long-term jobs per year in total and $5 billion in labour income.

On a wider scale, it’s estimated that as the line becomes more used it could result in 116,000 to 160,000 more jobs per year over the first 20 years of operation, and the associated labour income would be between $208 billion and $282 billion. Business output — which includes profits, taxes, subsidies, wages, income, benefits, and the costs of purchased goods and services — is estimated at $532 billion to $738 billion and value added, or gross domestic product, from the industry is expected to increase by $264 billion to $355 billion.

Meredith warned that “the multiplier effect” can result in the numbers relating to the wider impact being inflated.

Gord Lovegrove, associate professor at University of B.C. Okanagan’s School of Engineering, said the analysis used industry-standard tools and the estimates for job and economic spinoffs are “in the ballpark.”

“They’ve tried to be conservative,” said Lovegrove. “In all, I think they’ve taken a good first step.”

However, he did say that because they’re using leading-edge maglev technology in their modelling and looking more than 10 years into the future, the timelines could be longer and the costs higher than predicted.

“With transportation planning at the best of times, your error can be huge,” Lovegrove said. “I tell my students the best models usually have 30-per-cent error, plus or minus.”

The analysis indicates the project has “large economic development potential for the region and suggests there is good reason to continue project development.”

Meredith said he wasn’t surprised at the analysis’s conclusions based on the fact that Microsoft and unions were footing the bill, but agreed with Lovegrove that the numbers are feasible.

Next steps for the project include performing a corridor planning study, further evaluating ridership, setting up a multi-government commission for planning purposes, looking at funding mechanisms and preparing a more detailed business case.

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