About author, more here, you'll still have to hit the biography link if you want more info:

Megan McArdle is a senior editor for The Atlantic who writes about business and economics. She has worked at three start-ups, a consulting firm, an investment bank, a disaster recovery firm at Ground Zero, and the Economist. Megan holds a bachelor's degree in English literature from the University of Pennsylvania, and an MBA from the University of Chicago.

Slouching Toward Default, on Both Sides of the Atlantic
By Megan McArdle
You'll have to pardon me. I did mean to live blog this generation's Watergate hearings the second Dreyfuss trial Rupert Murdoch's fumbling appearance before British politicians, but I got distracted by less pressing events, such as the seeming stalemate over the US debt ceiling, and the ever widening gap between the bond spreads of Europe's center, and Europe's periphery. I do eventually hope to get back to the real story of the day, but I hope you'll permit me this small digression.

William D. Cohan, whose House of Cards is required reading about the crisis, sums up the disquiet in global markets:

Here are the facts: The yield on Greek sovereign debt is now at record highs for the euro era. Last week's state-managed bond auction in Italy almost failed. And, while few seem to have noticed, the overnight repurchase market -- for short-term, secured, corporate debt obligations -- nearly seized up amid what Combs described as "an almost panicky scramble" for less- risky paper.

Indeed, investors' manic desire for safety last week reached levels not seen since the most acute days of the financial crisis in September and October 2008. Ironically, though, given the pathetic display in Washington and the country's ongoing fiscal troubles, people turned in droves to the perceived security of the U.S. Treasury market, even though it has never looked shakier.

. . . At the same time, it's an open secret on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has become increasingly concerned about the state of U.S. money-market funds. With as little fanfare as possible -- understandably, so as not to cause a panic -- the New York Fed has been urging domestic money- market funds to reduce their exposure to European banks, where the funds have turned to increase yields not available in the U.S. because of rock-bottom interest rates.

The Fed is said to be terribly worried that -- because of provisions in the Dodd-Frank law -- it will no longer be able to rescue a money-market fund if it "breaks the buck," as the Fed did famously the day after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy.

Neil Hume channels Harvender Sian:

Spain has entered the danger zone for yield levels. The chart below shows the yield moves in the constant maturity 10y paper for the GIIPS countries. These markets traded a range between 6 per cent and 7 per cent but ultimately this proved to be a pause before the move to higher yields then accelerated. There is no consistent yield trigger level inside this range but market talk of point-of-no-return around the 6 ½% is not without foundation either.Slouching Toward Default, on Both Sides of the Atlantic

The solution to the economic problem is really quite simple and proven through repeated application, notably in places like Argentina.

Repudiate the debt AND the currency.

Just tell the creditor's they're screwed, as were those who held stock in Government Motors and several other enterprises that were effectively nationalized without compensation.

This simply requires creation of a "new" currency. Say, The Obama. People would have a finite time in which to exchange their "Dollars" for "Obamas". Of course the exchange would be something like $1,000 buys One Obama (needs a snappy new symbol like a chocolate brown zero with a vertical slash). Any individual could exchange up to $100,000 with any holding beyond that worthless. The conversion could not be automatic; banks couldn't do it for depositors. Each individual would have to draw a check for the amount to be converted and take it to a government office for new currency. There would, of course, be a 10% transaction fee.

Maybe I should not have written this out; there may be Democrat Senators reading though it likely exceeds their authorization or, perhaps, capability.

LOL! That's what people like to say and things always get better. Look, a doom'n'gloom career is not only unhealthy, it's delusional.

Everyone says we're in an economic collapse. Everyone's wrong. Measured US economic activity is at an all time high even while feelings are seem to be at an all time low. Everyone says the job market's the worst since the great depression. Everyone's wrong. Measured unemployment percentages are lower than those of Ronald Reagan, the rate peaked higher with Reagan, and the Reagan days ushered in and era of peace and prosperity to unimaginable heights.

What our economy is evolving into is one where modern industrial nations will more resemble thrid world nations where there is a thin candy shell of stupendously wealthy people surrounding a center of mostly impoverished workers.

Realistically speaking now only about 25% of Americans are really middle class as we used to think of the term middle class.

What is the middle class?

People who don't have to work too hard to have a decent quality of life, one where they can save for a rainy day, put aside money to educate their kids and still retire in relative comfort.

Given that half the families in the USA have incomes below $50 k year and given that $50k a year no longer really supports a middle class family (I think it takes about 100K now to have that life) I'd estimate our real middle class is no more than about 25% of the overall population and that percentage falling every day.

There are a lot of people who share the opinion of economic woes in the near future, to varying degrees. But governance world-wide does not appear to be up to the challenge for the most part, certainly not here in the US IMHO. I think we're headed for a lengthy period of what we've seen coming out of the recent recession, low growth with a few recessions thrown in. Maybe a serious depression at some point.

From what I've read many large US banks have paper from German, French, and Spanish banks, who in turn have paper from Greece, Portugal, and the other countries in financial trouble. Even Spain has problems, So if the Euro fails there will be an impact over here. It'll be a lot like 2008 all over again, banks lend to banks but who knows what the other bank's balance sheet looks like. Lending dries up further and we're back to a credit problem.

It could end well eventually if voters change the political climate in DC and enforce more accountability and transparency. Could happen, but probably not until the shit hits the fan. We ain't so good at precluding disasters, for whatever reason. Wish I could be more optimisitc, but I don't think it looks good right now.

The USA is still the largest economy in the world and, if it stabilizes its own economy--something our current Administration seems to be disinterested in--it, together with China, will stabilize all world makets. Continuing destabilization of the U.S. economy will keep other economies from getting back on track.

We need to replace a President and elect fiscal conservatives of whatever party to Congress. In my opinion, that is our only hope to correct the situation that exists.

Some say that China is not so stable either, they have a real estate bubble and the current regime could be replaced next year by a more fundamentalist group that assumes more control over their economy. Which is never good even under the best circumstances, so it's not like they don't have problems of their own.

Then there's the ME, currently aflame with protests. Saudi Arabia supplies an awful lot of of the world's oil, and ours too. That country is rules by 3 brothers, all of whom are in their mid to upper 80s and none in particularly good health. And they have a lot of politcal and religious unrest there, mainl from fundamentalists who could be linked to terrorist plots around the world, what would happen if there's a lot of turmoil there or even a revolution and overthrow of the gov't?

So,it ain't just Europe and Japan, things could turn to crap in a real quick hurry.

Some say that China is not so stable either, they have a real estate bubble and the current regime could be replaced next year by a more fundamentalist group that assumes more control over their economy. Which is never good even under the best circumstances, so it's not like they don't have problems of their own.

Then there's the ME, currently aflame with protests. Saudi Arabia supplies an awful lot of of the world's oil, and ours too. That country is rules by 3 brothers, all of whom are in their mid to upper 80s and none in particularly good health. And they have a lot of politcal and religious unrest there, mainl from fundamentalists who could be linked to terrorist plots around the world, what would happen if there's a lot of turmoil there or even a revolution and overthrow of the gov't?

So,it ain't just Europe and Japan, things could turn to crap in a real quick hurry.

Click to expand...

That's why I have been hitting so hard on squashing ambitions of professional politicians and returning true public servants to government. A Marxist idealist in the White House isn't going to have the vision of how wealth is created or what makes a strong, robust economy. When the USA is solid, strong, well armed, and committed to looking after and protecting its own interests, everybody else generally does better too or at least is more cautious about getting out of line.

All the concerns you listed are valid. But we can't fix anybody else. We can only fix ourselves. And just like in human relationships, everybody benefits when we work on our own problem and stop trying to fix everybody else. The USA needs a President and Congress more interested in restoring fiscal and economic integrity to the USA again than they are in dealing with controversial social issues and appeasing the wackos among us.

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