The EIU view

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, of the Morena party, retains extraordinary levels of popularity. However, some of his policymaking, including the use of popular consultations, will continue to worry investors. This will weigh on investor confidence, resulting in slower growth in 2019-20. A deal in September 2018 with the US and Canada to revamp the North American Free-Trade Agreement eliminates risks that the US would withdraw, but has yet to be approved.

Tariffs renewed amid steel conflict with US
Debates over tariffs on products, such as steel and aluminium, with the US will pose downside risks to the approval of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement this year.

Unprecedented mass strike action along border
Strike leaders have accused the Confederación de Trabajadores Mexicanos of encouraging firms to withhold the wage rises and bonuses in retaliation for the electoral victory of the president.

Mexico in 2019: Adventures with AMLO
Most investors are likely to take a wait-and-see approach on how the government handles its policy before undertaking major investments. This will cause growth to slump.

López Obrador lays out security strategy
The plan marks a departure from the current failed strategy and shifts the focus towards tackling the root causes of violent crime, but it is unlikely to reduce violence significantly.