My prediction is, Ubuntu and Mint will grow side by side, covering a much larger market segment than they could have otherwise. And because Cinnamon is such a darn simple extension, so to speak, it will eclipse, ever so slightly or more, its parent. You must never forget that Windows people will not take lightly to a left-positioned launcher, but they will almost naturally flock to something that looks like Cinnamon. Forget about the geeks, even though they are the reason why it was born in the first place. And it seems to be working, as you can see the Mint popularity soaring. Something is being done right somewhere.

MATE will follow, to a much lesser extent, but to all those who find Cinnamon too bloated, too heavy, incompatible, or simply do not wish to use Unity, Ubuntu or alike, it will be a great supplement for a productive and efficient computing. However, it will NOT make a revolution of its own, because Gnome 2 failed in the same space. So it must rely on Cinnamon for some brotherly love.

And so, the Linux desktop world will evolve to a new level, where only KDE will be the familiar player from years gone. You might think that too much forking causes strife and leads to significant fragmentation, and in most cases, this is true. But you cannot treat Cinnamon or MATE as separate pieces, which is what makes them so useful. Hence, the reason why they will emerge as dominant desktops in the years to come. The future of anything is something that looks like the present.

Coolios! I could see the traditional desktop battle going down to MATE vs. Cinnamon as the top two, while KDE and Xfce will still be players in the game. Meanwhile in the touch-oriented game, it'll be down to Unity vs. GNOME Shell.

I've always liked reading Dedoimedo, but I have a few issues with his take on this. For one, he has always been a Gnome2 snob and has never really given KDE especially the credit it deserves. While he has a point that KDE has suffered by not being the default in the most popular distros (read Ubuntu), I think the benefits he sees in Cinnamon and MATE have existed for years in KDE. I personally think that if Ubuntu (or Mint for that matter) had opted to go with KDE rather than Unity (or Cinnamon/MATE), they would have been able to achieve a much higher adoption rate among Windows refugees. Let's face it, if linux ever gains huge popularity in the traditional desktop/laptop realm, it will be by attracting those refugees in large numbers to something that they are familiar with: a taskbar with a start menu. KDE is now incredibly stable, becomes less resource intensive with each release, and more closely approximates the Windows experience than any other DE, and that's not a bad thing. Cinnamon and MATE, while similar, are still not quite there in many ways. If I set up a linux box for a friend or relative, they invariably choose KDE after I have shown them the other choices (Unity, Cinnamon, MATE and Xfce). I for one will be surprised if either Cinnamon or MATE become the "future", though I do like and applaud both efforts.

Hey, Cinnamon and MATE are awesome, I have 'em both installed on my machine, and really, really dig 'em and love Cinnamon, they're awesome alternatives to the Unity that Ubuntu came with. The only negative of having Cinnamon and MATE on my OS: gotta add the PPAs, which requires some time in the command-line, which is no biggie.

For those that absolutely must have a windows style layout, then cinnamon or mate will likely be their preference...For those who like macs and ever owned or played with one, or just like docks in general, or would like something different then what they are use to, then Ubuntu w/unity will be the way the will want to go...

Yep was a Gnome Snob myself for many years. Back in 2006-08 that's all I ran.Hated KDE then.

So naturally coming back to linux after a 4 year hiatus would hate Unity and fall in love with Cinnamon.But gave KDE a try in it's present form and find it should be in the 1st or 2nd top slots.

So many things they done right and now no more resource hog and snappy on my 3 year old dual core system.One of the Biggies for me is working multiple desktops on dual displays.

And the Ongoing battle last half-decade argument about who is responsible for App remembering Size & Position.The WM developers says it's the App devs responsibility and the App dev's saying it's the WM that is responsible for that.

As I am a User quite frankly I don't give a damn.. As I need it to help with creating a usable and productive desktop.As may have 6-8 apps open on dual displays with 3 virtual desktop. And is a pain with Cinnamon to manually have to setup and move them all the time.

KDE said to me we don't care who is responsible either and we will just give the user that ability because it's needed!I'm really surprised to this day that Gnome users still accepting that all the apps they open have to be moved and sized manually every time. Now there is Devil's Pie for that. But isn't a elegant or 100% fool-proof solution.

But in happy anticipation waiting for Cinnamon 1.8 and Mint 15.

Tho the link to the OP about the future was posted back in Oct. 2012. And many will agree there has been major changes across the board unknown to the author and unforeseen by any back then of the drastic changes of Linux in general no matter the distro.. .