Welcome to Asset Class Trading. In this blog, I’ll explore and develop my thoughts on what works in trading, generating alpha and investing in general. I’ve been trading asset classes for the past 20 years for myself personally, and since 2001 as a portfolio manager of an active global tactical asset allocation strategy that specializes in trading asset classes.

Recent Blog Posts

Executive Summary In the last of our asset-class valuation series, I discuss costly value traps that can derail even the best-reasoned asset-class value themes. A lot can go wrong when you bet on value. In particular, an asset class that appears to be an excellent...

Executive Summary Asset classes trading significantly below intrinsic value occur infrequently, perhaps once every 10-20 years per asset class. We need to accept that asset pricing (for long hold periods) is rational and correct most the time, and that cheap asset...

Executive Summary In this post, I examine the popular stock market valuation tool, the Shiller CAPE. The Shiller CAPE valuation approach, based on 150 years of data, appears to have an uncanny ability to predict future S&P 500 returns. Unfortunately, the benefits...