The math is off as it is only accounting for 3750 (edit) btc mined per day which hasn't been true for months. The math below is assuming 4000tbtc per day, but the last few times I've checked it's been over 4500. It's currently at 5100 btc/day http://blockchain.info/stats

Reworking the math shows that basically for every 1% of the network Labcoin holds, their value per share goes up by .002.

1% = .0022% = .0043% = .0064% = .008

etc..

You can see that even if they don't hit their 500TH goal and only are able to obtain 250% or around 4% of total network hash rate, we are still in for a nice gain.

As you well know Vela, stocks are not always valued by their current performance... You have to factor in risk and potential. It is my opinion that the potential is closer to .015 in 2013 and the risk unfortunately is currently very high. Once the risk lowers, we will start to see the stock rise.

The math is off as it is only accounting for 3600 btc mined per day which hasn't been true for months.

Reworking the math shows that basically for every 1% of the network Labcoin holds, their value per share goes up by .002.

1% = .0022% = .0043% = .0064% = .008

etc..

You can see that even if they don't hit their 500TH goal and only are able to obtain 250% or around 4% of total network hash rate, we are still in for a nice gain.

As you well know Vela, stocks are not always valued by their current performance... You have to factor in risk and potential. It is my opinion that the potential is closer to .015 in 2013 and the risk unfortunately is currently very high. Once the risk lowers, we will start to see the stock rise.

first they need to achieve 1%, which is still a stretch. If they get that done by Mid Oct, THEY MIGHT be able to pull off 50 TH/s by Nov 1.

That is incorrect as lately friedcat has been withholding the money from the hardware sales and dividends only included proceeds from the mining.

That's interesting. Presumably to invest more in hardware?

One problem with these bitcoin mining stocks is that as competition heats up the mining companies may need to poor all their revenue into new hardware, and ultimately the fabs end up with all the money.

That is incorrect as lately friedcat has been withholding the money from the hardware sales and dividends only included proceeds from the mining.

That's interesting. Presumably to invest more in hardware?

One problem with these bitcoin mining stocks is that as competition heats up the mining companies may need to poor all their revenue into new hardware, and ultimately the fabs end up with all the money.

he's been holding back a portion of the dividend to fund Gen2. Estimates are that he's got at least 11K btc saved.

there's one kind of business man, who always show investors bright future even themselves don't believe. For example, a small startup founder will promise 100 million revenue in 2 years just to attract investors. Lying becomes these guys' habit, so they keep lying even when it is completely harmful and unnecessary.

I guess that's the reason we've seen another promise, 20TH in 2 weeks. This is announced even before they have fixed the longlasting problem forbidding them from bring up 2TH. Moreover, why '2 weeks' becomes so popular now? After delaying again and again due to the endless tweaking, why they never learn to be smart and be conservative in promising?

I don't know that "the market" actually expects them to hit 20Th/s. They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule. But they do have a hashrate, and that hashrate has been going up. A little consistency and a steady increase should help get the share price back up a little bit, and hopefully indicate they are ironing out kinks and getting things fixed and ready.

They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule.

how do you figure that? They promised 2 TH/s 2 weeks ago, and even that was lower than they predicted (4-6TH/s).

I'd say they are at least 2 weeks behind schedule, as they haven't even met the hash rate they promised 2 weeks ago.

The point of the math is even if they do hit 20 TH/s in 2 weeks (highly unlikely), their fair value is lower than the current price. The best case scenario at this point puts them worth less than .002 in 2 weeks.

They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule.

how do you figure that? They promised 2 TH/s 2 weeks ago, and even that was lower than they predicted (4-6TH/s).

I'd say they are at least 2 weeks behind schedule, as they haven't even met the hash rate they promised 2 weeks ago.

The point of the math is even if they do hit 20 TH/s in 2 weeks (highly unlikely), their fair value is lower than the current price. The best case scenario at this point puts them worth less than .002 in 2 weeks.

They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule.

how do you figure that? They promised 2 TH/s 2 weeks ago, and even that was lower than they predicted (4-6TH/s).

I'd say they are at least 2 weeks behind schedule, as they haven't even met the hash rate they promised 2 weeks ago.

The point of the math is even if they do hit 20 TH/s in 2 weeks (highly unlikely), their fair value is lower than the current price. The best case scenario at this point puts them worth less than .002 in 2 weeks.

You are deliberately excluding potential profits. Though I admit standard logic doesn't really seem to apply as there isn't a whole lot of risk in getting left behind with this stock. If past performance is any indication, the price can and will turn around on a dime.

If we applied your logic to your beloved AM, their share price would be worth .33 btc/share @ 50% valuation. (at 50TH/1100TH network with 4000 coins a day, 400,000 shares). Obviously their risk is much lower and the potential profits are baked in.

Please don't insult us by pretending you don't understand that you can't just value an asset on it's CURRENT hash rate.

Please don't insult us by pretending you don't understand that you can't just value an asset on it's CURRENT hash rate.

of course not, I'm valuing this on THEIR FUTURE hash rate. Actually, it's based on their "promised" hash rate, which we know is greatly exaggerated. At their current hash rate, well, let's just say .002 is optomistic.

What other revenue are you expecting before Nov? Will Labcoin be selling Gen 1 hardware as everyone else is releasing Gen2? We can't rely on things they COULD do, we have to rely on what they are actually doing or likely to do.

AM has a current value not just due to their risk and potential profit, but also because THEY ARE ACTUALLY DELIVERING DIVIDENDS at those levels. AM is CURRENTLY selling hardware. Is Labcoin? When Labcon has the track record of AM, they might warrant an APR less than 50%.

I have yet to see you guys show any realistic scenario where they exceed my calculations.

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002. They have a long way to achieve even that.

Please don't insult us by pretending you don't understand that you can't just value an asset on it's CURRENT hash rate.

of course not, I'm valuing this on THEIR FUTURE hash rate. Actually, it's based on their "promised" hash rate, which we know is greatly exaggerated. At their current hash rate, well, let's just say .002 is optomistic.

What other revenue are you expecting before Nov? Will Labcoin be selling Gen 1 hardware as everyone else is releasing Gen2? We can't rely on things they COULD do, we have to rely on what they are actually doing or likely to do.

AM has a current value not just due to their risk and potential profit, but also because THEY ARE ACTUALLY DELIVERING DIVIDENDS at those levels. When Labcon has the track record of AM, they might warrant an APR less than 50%.

I have yet to see you guys show any realistic scenario where they exceed my calculations.

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002. They have a long way to achieve even that.

At least it is refreshing to see that you have moved on from screaming "it's a scam", but there is really no point in repeating yourself. State your point and move on, otherwise I'll suspect that you have alternative motives!