Threat of violence looms over Pakistan's elections

May 9, 2013
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Supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf or Moment for Justice party attend an election campaign rally in Islamabad, Pakistan, Thursday, May 9, 2013. Pakistan is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on May 11, the first transition between democratically elected governments in a country that has experienced three military coups and constant political instability since its creation in 1947. The parliament's ability to complete its five-year term has been hailed as a significant achievement. (AP Photo/Anjum Naveed) ORG XMIT: ANJ113 / Anjum Naveed AP

by Lisa Friedman, Special for USA TODAY

by Lisa Friedman, Special for USA TODAY

LAHORE, Pakistan - With terrorism happening almost daily, Pakistan faces a crucial test in elections this weekend that violent Taliban jihadists who seek a Muslim theocracy have vowed to ruin.

Saturday's elections will be the first peaceful transition of power from one civilian government to another in Pakistan's history after decades of military rule that ended only five years ago.

"I am an optimist and to be honest, there is no reason not to be optimistic," said Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, a think tank. "The election offers the one rare hope in an otherwise bleak situation."

A suicide bomb Monday killed 14 people at a political rally in Peshawar. A prosecutor investigating the death of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto was murdered. Ali Haider Gilani, a candidate for office and son of former Pakistan prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, was kidnapped Thursday.

In all, more than 70 people have been killed in pre-election violence in the past six weeks. But in bustling marketplaces and college campuses across this country, Pakistan's young say they remain relentlessly hopeful.

"We will vote, we will vote, inshallah," said Zille Huma, 20, a history major at Government College University in Lahore.

Gathered with a group of women, their bright pink and blue traditional Pakistani dresses standing out against the school's dark brick courtyard, Huma said she believes her vote matters.

"We want to get rid of these politicians," she said. "We have so much unemployment in Pakistan, and that increases the terrorism day by day. We want to change Pakistan."

Mehboob said the bombings have not stopped the elections from moving forward due to the establishment of a credible election commission. Other hopeful signs for Pakistan democracy are an absence of military manipulation and no pre-election poll rigging.

"This particular phenomenon of violence, yes it will have an impact but my feeling is it will be limited," he said. "The remarkable thing is there has been almost zero interference (in the elections)."

Polls indicate that two-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League is expected to win a majority of seats. The ruling Pakistan People's Party of President Asif Ali Zardari, swept into power on a wave of sympathy after Bhutto's death but now widely accused of corruption will likely take a significant hit, media polls say.

But it is the candidacy of former cricket star Imran Khan, whose promise of a "new ideology for Pakistan" has energized young voters, makes the outcome less than certain.

"I stand with Imran Khan, not because he's a cricket star or a handsome personality but the main thing is his vision," said Awais Ahmen Malik, 20, of Lahore.

He and other voter said they intend to vote on bread-and-butter issues: corruption, the country's debilitating energy crisis and its failing economy. Pakistan is hobbled by falling private investment, high deficits and high inflation.

Nearly a quarter of Pakistan's population lives under the poverty line, according to the World Bank. And fuel and energy shortages - equaling five to 10-hour power cuts on an average day - hold back economic growth. Analysts say there has been no net job growth in the private sector in the last four years.

Gohar Ejaz, chairman of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, said his industry â?? Pakistan's largest â?? hasn't added a new job in five years. The major reason for that is the government has failed to improved on energy reliability, he said, as the bulbs inside the industry association's offices flickered off.

"If there is going to be one reason this government is going to lose the election in Punjab, it's energy," Ejaz said.

Ryan Crocker, former U.S. ambassador to Pakistan says the United States has much to gain in a stable Pakistan.

"Pakistan is in a state of institutional failure: It's not a failed state, but you could argue it is a failing state," Crocker said. "So these elections need to be â?¦ well-run and credible."

Mehvish Ismail, a corporate lawyer in Lahore, says the violent attacks to delay or upend the elections only makes her more motivated to vote.

"Pakistan is in dire need of a change in leadership and the elections are the only way to go about it," she said. "We need to have a stable democratic government in place which can address the issues of extremism, corruption and terror."