The Daily Lard 5-18-12

Douglas LeeMay 18, 2012 7:43 AM

Happy Friday, Broncos fans! Perhaps Matt Prater hasn't signed his franchise tag because he's been waiting for someone else to set the market.

Well, consider it set.

Tampa Bay inked their kicker Connor Barth to a four-year deal worth a total of $13.2M, including $4M in guarantees, which is a modest increase over the $2.6M franchise tag tendered to Barth (same amount as Prater).

Of the five kickers to be tagged this offseason, Barth is the only one with a long-term deal; Cincy's Mike Nugent and Cleveland's Phil Dawson ($3.81M) signed their one-year tenders, while Prater and Jacksonville's Josh Scobee have not. As for unrestricted free agent kickers, none of them got a whole lot of cash this offseason; John Kasay got an undisclosed one-year deal in New Orleans, Arizona gave Jay Feely $2.5M over two seasons, Washington signed Neil Rackers for $990K, and the Jets gave Nick Folk and Josh Brown one-year deals worth $765K and $855K, respectively.

Of these players, Barth is the most similar to Prater in terms of age and experience, with Barth holding a significant edge on accuracy (83.9% vs 78.4%). But, Prater kicks off, and Barth does not (Bucs punter Michael Koenen handles that duty).

The average value of Barth's deal ($3.3M) would seem a bit rich for someone like Prater who has struggled so mightily from 40-49 yards in his career (21/36 career, 3/7 in 2011). But Prater has a really strong leg and booms them from 50+, right? He does, and is 12/16 from distance over his career, and 3/4 in 2011.

But that's not quite as impressive as it seems, as several kickers attempted more kicks from 50+ last year and made a higher percentage than Prater, including Robbie Gould (6/6), Dawson (7/8), Rob Bironas (6/7), Scobee (5/6), Rackers (4/5), and David Akers (7/9).

None of this to say Denver needs to upgrade at kicker, or to lessen his outsized impact on the Broncos' 2011 playoff run.

But at the same time, it's a reminder that there are plenty of good kickers out there who have strong legs and who perform quite well on kickoffs. A lot of them are also far more accurate than Prater has been from 40-49 yards, and several will be paid a lot less than Barth, and what Prater is presumably seeking. And as Bill Barnwell explained in March, that's a whole lot of cheese for a placekicker, especially when there's no telling how well he'll kick this year or the next.

Meanwhile, Rackers has been exceptionally accurate over the past four years (88.5%, although he spent those years in the domed confines of Arizona and Houston), and he's making a shade under a million dollars.

I'm all for locking Prater up on a multiyear deal. But should Denver be paying him a contract commensurate to what Tampa Bay just paid Barth?

If it comes down to allocating ~$3M annually to Prater versus signing someone like Steven Hauschka for under $1M, I'd say go with the latter, and spend those resources elsewhere.

Broncos

Jason Cole says incoming rookies and their agents have been getting fleeced by teams into taking lesser compensation than the CBA allows for, with Nate Irving a glaring example.

Here's Ronnie Hillman's BTV interview following his selection by the Broncos.

Elvis Dumervil made NFLN's top 100 players list; here's their segment on him.

Old friend Domonique Foxworth is leaning toward retirement and may head to business school before potentially returning to the NFLPA as an executive.

Raiders LB Rolando McClain was found guilty by a judge of all charges in his Alabama assault case and was sentenced to 180 days in jail. McClain's lawyer filed an appeal, which would be heard by a jury.

Our old friend Brandon Marshall has made another escape, this time from prosecution in NYC for his most recent nightclub incident.

Philly gave RB LeSean McCoy $20.765M in guarantees as part of a new five-year extension; Osi Umenyiora apologized (to women, not to McCoy) for his Mother's Day tweet.

Go figure. Now that Wes Welker has signed his franchise tag and given away all of his leverage, he says the team is offering him less in a multiyear deal than they had a year ago.

The Giants received their SB rings (Niners Mario Manningham and Brandon Jacobs missed the ceremony to practice with their new team) on Wednesday night; in a sad contrast, Lawrence Taylor's 1991 SB ring is up for auction.

Houston is the latest team reported to have turned down a chance to be featured on HBO's Hard Knocks.

The agent for Donald Driver expects the WR to be back with the Packers this season.

35-year-old running back Ahman Green, who hasn't played the past two seasons, sounds like he wants to revive his career.

Scrapple

Deion Sanders thinks coaching kids with proper form will help reduce the frequency of concussions suffered.

Actually, after reading HRs excellent post above, I think the concept of clutch might be over-rated as well. He makes a good point that percentages tell the tale best.

Posted by Boz on 2012-05-18 20:54:19

Excellent words, AZ. When Peyton Manning became a Bronco, my blood pressure eased off a bit. When Tebow was shipped out of town, it came back to normal. Haven't seen that since the pre-draft hoopla about the guy in 2010.

Life is good!

Posted by BlackKnigh on 2012-05-18 17:29:45

Likes and a lol each to Alaskan and wyoeng. :D

Posted by AZDynamics on 2012-05-18 12:47:45

I believe I can prove Prater's "Clutchness". Has he ever missed a kick in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime? More importantly has he ever missed a game tying or winning kick in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime? If he has, I don't remember it, but I am getting pretty old.

Posted by RockyMtnThunder on 2012-05-18 12:45:04

Site Admin/Doug - Is there any plan to add further indenting on the conversations, so that replies to replies can be visually displayed?

Posted by DavidInLA on 2012-05-18 12:38:21

Tebow may be gone from the Broncos but he certainly is all over the Broncos blogs - the circus lives on. The discussions are no different. There will continue to be lots of Tebow articles in the news and on IAOFM. The points of view will not change. He's just wearing a green jersey now, and we have a new awesome QB. I will root for Tebow. But I will be mighty upset if he gets an SB ring before the Broncos do.

Posted by DavidInLA on 2012-05-18 12:36:16

"God squad"...."Big Top Tebow"....you guys are cracking me up!!

Posted by John Tomasik on 2012-05-18 12:22:49

Good points, DCJ1. Cole's article most certainly starts out suggesting that the teams are underhandedly keeping money from the players. His comment, "...NFL teams ... have been shortchanging lower-round draft picks as well...." can most certainly be taken as "fleecing". Poorly written article I'll agree as well.

Posted by John Tomasik on 2012-05-18 12:21:45

Prater has attempted 7 onside kicks in 4 years and Denver has recovered 2 of them. If this makes him worth 2 or 3 times what other (more accurate) kickers, then sure. To me, this "clutchness" is not proven, nor would it be worth such a large difference in salary under a limited budget and cap.

Posted by Douglas Lee on 2012-05-18 11:46:17

The Cole article is a piece of poorly thought out junk. His underlying assumption is that every rookie player should get the maximum rather than the minimum. That of course defeats the purpose of paybands. I'd say Irving getting the minimum of the payband is pretty fair, considering his performance last year, as opposed to Cole's take that it is "[t]he most egregious example from 2011."

As for re-reading, I'd point you to Cole's opening thesis statement: "NFL teams ... have been shortchanging lower-round draft picks as well." His alternative pointing at the agents, like you say, is also aimed at the NFL: "[o]r teams have at least found a way to take advantage of agents and players." While Doug's synopsis was a bit blunter than Cole's demagoguery, the article is filled with loaded language to make one feel sympathy toward the poor players and agents who are being screwed over by the big bad NFL teams.

Posted by DCJ1 on 2012-05-18 11:39:24

I don't know. "Big top Tebow" has an interesting ring. The high wire act (4th quarter combacks) was good. Not so sure about the clowns.

Posted by wyoeng on 2012-05-18 11:37:59

Watch it, AZ. The God Squad will be after you.You may be banished to the outer circle where you will spend all eternity with Doug and TJ.

Posted by Alaskan on 2012-05-18 11:29:30

Then I stand corrected for misinterpreting Cole's take. I can't say I appreciate how you pointed out but since I erred I suppose I'm in no position to complain

Posted by Douglas Lee on 2012-05-18 11:21:30

Thanks for the idea, Boz. I'll see what I can do.

Posted by TJ Johnson on 2012-05-18 11:12:12

Elway is my hero. Sure, there's the Helicopter, the 47 come-backs, the five SBs. But there is also the fact that he shipped Tebow out of town. Let the Jets have that mess. Some people refer to it as a circus. I disagree: A circus is fun to watch.

Posted by AZDynamics on 2012-05-18 11:00:01

That's an interesting point that is generally not brought, RMT. It may also become more important in the future as touchback becomes as common as the incomplete pass.

Posted by TJ Johnson on 2012-05-18 10:58:43

The sample size of "clutch" kicks is quite a bit lower, so it's harder to make an objective assesment.

Personally, I like Prater, but I'm starting to think that he's not worth the $$. We could get by with Prater for the next year once he signs his tender and then draft a guy next year. The pickings for FA kickers looks to be slim at this point (Dave Rayner and Ryan Longwell are the only guys who's names I recognize), and if there were any college free agent kickers with promise out there we probably needed to pick them up a couple of weeks ago. so the broncos appear to be committed to him at least this year. But after that I don't know if it's an efficient use of money. I'm not sold on the idea that you need a "clutch" kicker on the roster anymore. a kick in the 2nd quarter is worth the same 3 points as one at the end of the game. The biggest irony of all is that two of his biggest kicks this year wouldn't have been needed if Prater hadn't missed kicks earlier in the game (against Miami and Chicago). There are some positions where the "immeasurables" are more important than the stats, but for a kicker all I really care about is if he hits 80+% of his kicks consistently, up to 50 yards out. 50+ yard kicks are icing. And pretty much anybody gets a bunch of touchbacks kicking off from the 35 these days.

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2012-05-18 10:54:22

This /\ /\ /\ /\ /\ !

Posted by SteveS on 2012-05-18 10:46:13

One more thing to the Prater discussion. Have you ever seen a kicker make better onside kicks than Matt Prater (See Miami tape, Chicago tape, NY Jets 2010 tape)

Posted by RockyMtnThunder on 2012-05-18 10:27:21

Did you watch Hauschka with the Ravens or Seahawks or here in Broncos training camp? The guy can't hit the endzone even at altitude as he failed to do in the Broncos Seahawks preseason game last year, and he missed so many clutch kicks with the Ravens they got rid of him in favor of Billy Cundiff. Yeah that Billy Cundiff....

Posted by RockyMtnThunder on 2012-05-18 10:18:54

Why is clutch hard to measure? The factors seem to be the rate of success in game-winning situations. No?

Posted by jvill on 2012-05-18 09:52:20

It is interesting to see that McClain's lawyer was Harvey Steinberg. His remarkable success defending Denver Bronco miscreants must have led to a nice little practice representing NFL idiots all over the country. But it seems the show may not be portable all the way to Alabama.

Posted by Alaskan on 2012-05-18 09:39:24

My point is that any discussion regarding a kicker has to take that point on board. I accept that it very difficult to measure and be objective about but nevertheless it needs to be noted.

Posted by Steve Williams on 2012-05-18 09:37:42

Those 40-49 yarders concern me, as I assume there are a lot more of them than the 50+ bombs. Perhaps TJ could run the numbers for us if he gets the time. I think 'clutch' could be defined as any kick in the fourth quarter with the score within 10, and all OT kicks.

Posted by Boz on 2012-05-18 09:37:16

If you really believe that then you need to read Cole's article again. He never claims the teams are fleecing anyone. He pretty clearly lays the blame with inexperienced agents who lack a financial incentive to get their clients the best deal.

Posted by Fan in Exile on 2012-05-18 09:35:17

FiE I think it's fairly clear which of those opinions is mine, and which belongs to someone else

Posted by Douglas Lee on 2012-05-18 09:25:08

Steve, should we read that as you saying Prater is more clutch than those other kickers, yet you also suggest that it's an immeasurable trait?

Posted by Douglas Lee on 2012-05-18 09:11:23

Am I the only one who finds it odd that Doug advocates that the team negotiates a favorable deal with Prater and in the same post calls the team negotiating a favorable deal with Irving fleecing?

Posted by Fan in Exile on 2012-05-18 09:10:36

I'd like to know how Prater performs home vs. away. High altitude can make guys look better in their stats than someone who has to deal with life at sea level.

Posted by John Tomasik on 2012-05-18 08:51:17

I think you raise some interesting arguments Doug regarding what type of deal Prater should be on. However I think one key point has been missed. How does that kicker perform when the game is on the line? Clutch isnt something that is measurable but the ability of a kicker who can make that last minute game winning kick outweighs a lot of other kicker attributes.