Appreciate the replies, Westwolf, Hendu. Westwolf, given the circumstances, BYU and Cincy looks as plausible as most anyone. Hendu, it comes down to desire, opportunity, and availability. BYU is not an end all resolution, and there are a lot of issues to addess to add them; and what level of flexibility could to achieved to reach an agreement is unclear. BYU has national name recognition, fine facilities, an impressive following, and an established success record. Very few available have all these ingredients on the level of BYU. BYU recruits all over and they would be recruiting in Texas anyway. Such could strengthen their B12 ties if admitted.

What UCF is achieving is getting increasing notice. Winning a BCS bowl gets attention. UCF has a huge student body, growing alumni, up-to-date facilities, and Orlando is not a location to dismiss. At this point, having a directional name should not be a major detractor.

It should be clear within the next couple of years if the B12 intends to expand.

Since this is an SEC thread, I doubt any expansion from the SEC will be on the table for a long time. The B12 is in a position to expand and not prompt other Power 5 conferences to move on expansion. Recruiting and broadcasting competition may get enhanced in certain locales, but that's already understood and expected. In Texas and Florida (and other spots) there's already major conference overlap.

Appreciate the replies, Westwolf, Hendu. Westwolf, given the circumstances, BYU and Cincy looks as plausible as most anyone. Hendu, it comes down to desire, opportunity, and availability. BYU is not an end all resolution, and there are a lot of issues to addess to add them; and what level of flexibility could to achieved to reach an agreement is unclear. BYU has national name recognition, fine facilities, an impressive following, and an established success record. Very few available have all these ingredients on the level of BYU. BYU recruits all over and they would be recruiting in Texas anyway. Such could strengthen their B12 ties if admitted.

What UCF is achieving is getting increasing notice. Winning a BCS bowl gets attention. UCF has a huge student body, growing alumni, up-to-date facilities, and Orlando is not a location to dismiss. At this point, having a directional name should not be a major detractor.

It should be clear within the next couple of years if the B12 intends to expand.

Since this is an SEC thread, I doubt any expansion from the SEC will be on the table for a long time. The B12 is in a position to expand and not prompt other Power 5 conferences to move on expansion. Recruiting and broadcasting competition may get enhanced in certain locales, but that's already understood and expected. In Texas and Florida (and other spots) there's already major conference overlap.

I don't think the SEC or the Big 10 is done expanding. It probably won't happen for another 5 years or so, but I imagine both leagues will be back at it. The question is what is the magic number? Is it 16 or more? I think the SEC targets a North Carolina school and probably VA Tech. I think they would probably prefer UNC and OU, but I don't see either one coming on board without Okie State and Duke. I could see the SEC taking UNC and Duke. Slive really wants to see the BBall improve, which it certainly would with those two schools. But I can't see the SEC doubling down in the state of Oklahoma, there just isn't enough TV demographics to support doubling down there.

I'll reply to the post submitted above. The SEC moving into the states of North Carolina and Virginia is certainly not on the immediate horizon. Having the markets of the Charlotte (where the SEC has been cultivating through various means) and Raleigh-Durham metro areas plus a footprint that reaches into the Roanoke Valley to the Tidewater region and north to Richmond and the DC metro suburbs would be huge for marketing coverage and recruitment. With the GoRs' as is, expansion for the SEC is very limited in real possibilites. The SEC is not going to take lower profile, directional, and/or athletically unprepared schools among those such as ECU, UNCC, Appy State, or VCU. Extracting ACC schools such as NCSU and VPI would have all kinds of near insurmountable issues to address. On the west end of the SEC, a school such as Oklahoma is not currently attainable and without conditions.

The B1G allegedly has also been interested in UNC, UVA, GT, etc. If they ever attempt to reach 16 or beyond, it is doubful they have given up on future pursuits of mid-Atlantic possibilities.And if the Virginia--North Carolina region ultimately became a shared domain of the SEC, B1G, and the remaining ACC, the market, while still valuable, would be splintered to a significant degree.

Internally, changing the SEC divisional line-ups can be a major political and strategic challenge. Alabama and Auburn are adament about not splitting divisions or shifting to the east. If two additions were added to the SEC east, and Mizzou shifts to the west, that may work in a future scenario. Adding two from the west would be more complicated. Adding one to the west and one to the east could be another future option, but it could still keep Mizzou in the east, and maybe the school would even prefer that.

Anyway, among the 'power five' conferences, it looks as if Virginia and North Carolina will remain "all ACC" states for the near future; and not be in shared states as evident in SC, GA, Fla, and Ky.

If the new super-division develops with the autonomy some may anticipate, it could make the ACC and B12, even as included, more susceptible to what could become even more powerful conferences of the B1G, SEC, and PAC12. Divisional rules and pressures, along with increasing network influences, could potentially tear into GoR structures. If the desire is high enough, somebody shall find the methodology.

If conferences do go to 16 and beyond, I'll be curious who gets there first. I don't know if the B1G will do it first, just because they aren't typically the proactive ones on these matters. Other conferences got to 12 first, same with 14, and now, even that wonky 14/15 level with associate memberships and whatnot. Even if the ACC gave another school a partial football arrangement (Navy?), it really wouldn't count. This being about full football commitment, there does seem to be some gridlock.

The GoRs are there to be challenged, to which I think television deal muck-ups will likely break before schools choose to challenge their might.

The B1G seems to sound the most confident that they will push beyond 14, but it's the ACC and SEC who seem to take those initiatives more. The Big XII and PAC come off as very likely, too, but not without picking up programs who wouldn't necessarily "move the needle" for other conferences (gobble up the MWC and someone just take BYU already).

If the SEC really wants those NC or VA programs, it either better take a substitute (Charlotte? ECU?) or be willing to endure their new possessions' getting strung up by massive legal battles. Or would they just pick up basketball schools, since they seem to be concerned about their shortcomings in that sport when Kentucky is down?

If the SEC really wants those NC or VA programs, it either better take a substitute (Charlotte? ECU?) or be willing to endure their new possessions' getting strung up by massive legal battles. Or would they just pick up basketball schools, since they seem to be concerned about their shortcomings in that sport when Kentucky is down?

As far as Charlotte and East Carolina, I can't imagine the SEC being okay with the #6 and #5, respectively, athletic schools in North Carolina. Athletically, the SEC has the #1 school in Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida with strong debates about having the #1 school in Texas and South Carolina. An east #2 in Kentucky. North Carolina is the prize from the ACC. However, Duke may be a great choice for the SEC. Reasons: clearly boosts their academics, strong basketball program, definitely decent up-and-coming football program, and it wouldn't be that hard to schedule annual games with North Carolina. Florida (Florida St), Georgia (Georgia Tech), South Carolina (Clemson), and Kentucky (Louisville) do it every year. For that matter, Virginia Tech would be able to do the same thing with Virginia.

One of the long-time complaints about the ACC is having the concentration of members in North Carolina. It's been an issue about power, that has impacted matters of scheduling, travel, tournament sites, distributions, and other farvoritism ranging from officiating to sanctions.The ACC actually could be better off if one of their '4' was actually in another conference.NCSU has often been depicted as subservient to UNC and their pal, Duke, when it has come to a host of concerns related to media exposure and certain priorities. Regarding the 2003 expansion, NCSU and Wake were actually on the pro-expansion side while UNC and Duke were not intially. A NCSU President was actually chairing the conference's presidential group at the time.

NCSU has done little overt complaining over the years about the ACC's governing dynamics. They have had certain benefits from being a part of the 'NC 4', including a lot of convenience. Still, there is the UNC-Duke shaddow that encroaches on NCSU. Further, schools such as GT, FSU, Clemson, Miami, and those in the north, could feel that the sense of power becomes better distributed if one school from NC left for elsewhere. And, NCSU could be physically replaced by UConn, or Cincy, or another from outside North Carolina.

Aside from the GoR stuff, theoretically, could NCSU pull a Texas A&M-style departure from the ACC and accept a future SEC invitation? The two situations have a few similarities, but a lot of differences. NCSU, being under the governing board of the University of North Carolina State system, would not be free of UNC influences to leave independently. As it was in the Texas A&M situation, the B12 had already lost schools during the time period, nearly all of the B12 was looking around, and further strained relations happened over the LHN and such. Texas A&M had their own set of powerful politicians supporting them for the move. And, Texas A&M and the SEC had been communicating with each over a period of years.

IMO, NCSU would be better off in the SEC. The ACC could actually withstand it and not necessarily lose others by the move. The competition could eventually be a boost to the ACC while a marketing plus for the SEC.Who could be #16 if that happened? A good possibility would open somewhere.

For UNC and/or Duke to leave the ACC, the ACC would have to be gutted to a significant degree beforehand, or the money involved would be so extremely immense it couldn't be ignored.

As far as Charlotte and East Carolina, I can't imagine the SEC being okay with the #6 and #5, respectively, athletic schools in North Carolina. Athletically, the SEC has the #1 school in Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida with strong debates about having the #1 school in Texas and South Carolina. An east #2 in Kentucky. North Carolina is the prize from the ACC. However, Duke may be a great choice for the SEC. Reasons: clearly boosts their academics, strong basketball program, definitely decent up-and-coming football program, and it wouldn't be that hard to schedule annual games with North Carolina. Florida (Florida St), Georgia (Georgia Tech), South Carolina (Clemson), and Kentucky (Louisville) do it every year. For that matter, Virginia Tech would be able to do the same thing with Virginia.

I agree, but I wonder how desperate the SEC is to be in those states. As the UNC emails exposed, it may not matter if, were the ACC in some actual peril, fans and boosters wanted to be in the SEC. Administrators can do exactly what those in MD did and run away with the matter if it comes to it. Kind of the same with FSU.

NCSU, as per sec02's comments, seems the most plausible, but even they seem to be content enough with the academic benefits that come with the ACC. They've also been able to keep themselves relevant as a program there (it seems that even if they aren't a top ACC program in football, they are still better than about half the darn conference), and I think they'll gladly stick with UNC.

As far as Charlotte and East Carolina, I can't imagine the SEC being okay with the #6 and #5, respectively, athletic schools in North Carolina. Athletically, the SEC has the #1 school in Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida with strong debates about having the #1 school in Texas and South Carolina. An east #2 in Kentucky. North Carolina is the prize from the ACC. However, Duke may be a great choice for the SEC. Reasons: clearly boosts their academics, strong basketball program, definitely decent up-and-coming football program, and it wouldn't be that hard to schedule annual games with North Carolina. Florida (Florida St), Georgia (Georgia Tech), South Carolina (Clemson), and Kentucky (Louisville) do it every year. For that matter, Virginia Tech would be able to do the same thing with Virginia.

I agree, but I wonder how desperate the SEC is to be in those states. As the UNC emails exposed, it may not matter if, were the ACC in some actual peril, fans and boosters wanted to be in the SEC. Administrators can do exactly what those in MD did and run away with the matter if it comes to it. Kind of the same with FSU.

NCSU, as per sec02's comments, seems the most plausible, but even they seem to be content enough with the academic benefits that come with the ACC. They've also been able to keep themselves relevant as a program there (it seems that even if they aren't a top ACC program in football, they are still better than about half the darn conference), and I think they'll gladly stick with UNC.

Yeah, I just don't see it happening unless a new super-division forces profound re-organization from within, and even then, potential movement being fluid shall be subjected to the same old impacting variables: money, politics, and the sense of security.

Football (especially), basketball, and baseball drive the SEC. While SEC academics have been scrutinized, this has been a conference of flag-ship and land grant universities and a highly respected private school. While the SEC does not have the predominant number of AAU schools as the B1G proudly displays; still, the SEC basically engulfs the best, academically and athletically, for their domain, largely the deep south which has had its struggles in valuing this aspect. Vandy, Florida, Mizzou, Texas A&M, and Georgia are pretty respectable. And schools such as South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and even Mississippi State have made a lot of strides in recent decades. The ACC who try to sell themselves as a combination of elite private schools combined with better than average and more selective public universities, found out that has limitation when it comes to big money. But they did manage to fit Louisville into the mix, a school that had the commuter campus look. The SEC would not touch them, and that went beyond the fact that Kentucky is in the SEC. And really, FSU, and Clemson to a major degree, look like SEC schools but are in the ACC.

We agree on the fundamental point, while the market would be an enhancement, there is nothing in North Carolina currently available that would be desired by the SEC.

We agree on the fundamental point, while the market would be an enhancement, there is nothing in North Carolina currently available that would be desired by the SEC.

Yeah, I hold firm on the quality thing, or, better put, quality content. What The Big Ten did with Rutgers...I don't know if the SEC would simply ever do...grab a big program in a good market that doesn't add anything in terms of athletic prestige. Charlotte would fit that bill, but they definitely don't pass the smell test. Cincinnati actually would add prestige, but they seem just as unlikely.

Do SEC/Missouri fans have even the slightest sense that Missouri would leave for the Big Ten if asked?

I envision a scenario (not until 2026) in which the Big Ten can't get Virginia, that is made public, so they rage into taking Missouri. Kansas in the Big Ten could also sweeten the deal for Missouri.

That said, I think the SEC can get into the state of North Carolina via NC State at any realistic opportunity (e.g. next ACC GOR limbo) which in turn could land them UNC proper. I don't think the Big Ten has any shot of landing North Carolina. As in none ever. Their fan base of students/grads may stomach it, but their larger fan base of North Carolina residents and Jordan/basketball fans would switch to following NC State or another school. Even in 2026, there would be a Civil War tone to such a move in that two sides would form on opposite ends pitting brother against brother.

It's not all bad (in fact the total opposite) for the SEC if they lose Missouri. To start, it would force acquiring a 14th school. Knowing that the SEC was just "raided" it might (it would) give them carte blanche to "raid". They would pick the nearby ACC. They haven't done raided them yet, but the Big Ten just did (Maryland) and you know the SEC is itching to now. So lets look at who would join from the ACC...

The answer is ANY current ACC school besides Virginia (for now) or North Carolina (for now). Some the SEC wouldn't want (Wake, northern schools ect.) so conservatively narrow it to: Miami, FSU, NC State, Clemson, GT, VT and Louisville). Are any of those more lucrative additions than Missouri for a 14-team conference? Oh yeah. Pretty much all of them besides Louisville and GT (who is close). But 16-teamers are coming if you paid attention to the last 250 years of capitalism in this country. So, then you could land Virginia and North Carolina (for 16+).

Recommendation? Lose Missouri. Trick the Big Ten into taking a school they already didn't want. How? Antagonize Missouri leading up to 2026 (but no reason to start now, say 2021). Rob them of crucial calls (see: Nebraska), let Arkansas get away with murder on the recruiting trail (see: Texas proposed High School Games on LHN), run up the score at any opportunity during ABC/CBS televised games (Texas once beat Colorado 70-7 in the Big Ten Championship in front of a national audience including blatantly running up the score in the second half while up 49 points). Likewise, Oklahoma once beat A&M 77-3 in a nationally televised game and get this, they just dove up the middle starting in late in the 3rd Quarter. They quite literally trolled A&M and otherwise could have scored 90+ but they made it very known that playing A&M was to be treated as performing in a clown show. Or allow them to go broke (Maryland?? .... no ACC school helping or trying to get the train back on tracks?). Admittedly, I don't think an SEC school could actually go broke like Maryland and Colorado did, but just a thought if the SEC ever were to see it, then simply don't help. For the simple act of giving Maryland a few bucks (could have even been under the table from the many ACC private schools) the ACC would have Maryland right now and the Big Ten might have gone with Connecticut instead (who the ACC quite clearly didn't want) which weakens the Big Ten by P5 comparison.

Bottom line, the P5 is going to be the P4. Will the P4 ever become the P3? I don't see why not. If it does, the SEC only needs to be better than the ACC to make it. Based on geography, the Big Ten and SEC will have a default presence in a P3. Therefore, if losing Missouri in 2026 is all you have to do to guard against the ACC one day raiding the SEC (by raiding the ACC before they can raid you) (heck, who knows what 2050 will look like?) then lose them. The SEC offices are now in Charlotte. You gotta go for it. At least turn the heat up on UNC by taking NC State in 2026. NC State for Missouri? If I'm in charge of the SEC, I take that trade every single time under any scenario. If the SEC lands UNC, the sky is the limit. UNC for hoops, FSU for football ect. Athletic dominance will not even remotely (even less than now) be challenged hosting an absurd level of on-the-field dominance which just might make the SEC it's own division like a P1. That is pretty much the dream scenario for the SEC, but with new P5 autonomy coming, it's not crazy to assume there could be individual P4 autonomy at some point. Big East hoops almost lobbied the NCAA for a 6th Personal Foul in hoops (conference games only). The National League has different rules than the American League (and college football generates more revenue than MLB). The Ivy League of all places used to legally pay its players before the NCAA was formed (ditto SEC, then "Southern Conference" I think). So yes, I think it would be wise to drop Missouri by any means in 2026 and then begin the process of a P3 in which in all reality the SEC will be the P1 of.

A few years ago, Mizzou's preference was to join the Big Ten. No doubt, the governor even campaigned for it.Mizzou was given the cold shoulder.

Mizzou was shown open arms by the SEC.

(by the way - Mizzou is used to being slaughtered on the football field - (re: "The Norman Conquest", a 77-0 loss to Oklahoma in Norman).

Assuming the money stays good in the SEC, I can't see Missouri flirting with the Big Ten any time soon.

Mizzou won the SEC-east their 2nd year and played decently in the title game. Maybe it was the 2nd year fluke, but I don't think so. They looked to have transitioned well into the SEC. While Mizzou's geography is mostly surrounded by Big12 and BIG terrain, let's not overlook they do border Arkansas to the south as well as bits of Kentucky and Tennessee. And a former Big12 rival (Texas A&M) joined the SEC just before Mizzou left. Mizzou could improve with recruiting in the SEC. They may even accept the SEC-east as the preferred division as they got placed. Major geography didn't keep Mizzou with the B12.

While the B1G looked like a natural choice for Mizzou---geography, athletic history, and academic profile; the B1G rejected Mizzou, a decision leaving some strained relations. There were B1G schools that did not want Mizzou. Among other considerations, Penn State's former Pres., Spannier, had Nebraska ties, and that could have been one of the influencing factors, at least in giving Nebraska a distinct edge.

As you noted, the money in the SEC is good and is going to be even better.

Slive has proven to be very savvy when it comes to expansion.

Getting into North Carolina would be the top SEC objective if/when expansion again happens. NCSU could be #15 given an opening in future access. That could be the only ACC school that may be open to SEC overtures and that satisfy an SEC agenda item. VPI has indicated they intend to stay with the ACC. I seriously doubt UNC, Duke, and UVA shall be moving anywhere. The GoR stuff is going to hamper such transitions for a long time. The results of the Maryland-ACC lawsuit could lend a clue as to future flexibilities.

IF, and that is a big if, the SEC did eventually acquire, say, NC State, whom would be #16, assuming no other ACC schools would be in play?That would offer some interesting speculation.

Last edited by sec03 on Tue May 06, 2014 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

IF, and that is a big if, the SEC did eventually acquire, say, NC State, whom would be #14, assuming no other ACC schools would be in play?

I think the SEC is looking for 2 ACC schools to get to 16, but what do I know? If they were to pick up North Carolina St as #15 and no other ACC schools were in play, they would have to look at the XII.

Texas: does the SEC really want to deal with them?Texas Tech: too farTCU: brings in the DFW market, but their dominant football program has waned in the past couple yearsBaylor: I actually wouldn't hate to see this, Waco sits between DFW and Austin and there are plenty of Baylor grads around the state; however, Baylor and Texas A&M had some bad blood when the Aggies were making the move to the SECOklahoma: would be a strong addition, but would they go without Texas or Oklahoma St?Oklahoma St: would be strong addition as well, but are they too "little brother" compared to Oklahoma?Kansas/Kansas St: with Missouri, the Kansas City market is already hit by the SECWest Virginia: it is a new state contiguous with the SEC, but there is no market unless you somehow count Pittsburgh? Plus their once strong football and basketball have both fallen off the map latelyIowa St: just...no

Personally, I would like to see Baylor. They are upgrading facilities (new football stadium coming), have recent success in both football and basketball, and would not be in any plans for a mass exodus to the PAC which means they would do whatever the SEC asked which may be good leverage for the SEC.

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