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Monday, July 30, 2007

Sever access has been restored! Thank you all for waiting so (not) patiently. :)

Since inventory is on everybody's mind, let's start there:

I'm showing barely an increase over last week. I know this puts me at odds with HousingTracker, but Ben seems to be running a little hot this year (like I was last year). One possibility for the difference could be as simple as a slightly different sample area. Since he doesn't provide exact geographic details, we can't say for sure.

As for the inventory top, I am still unwilling to make the call for another two or three weeks yet. I think the recovery (if any) after the July end-of-the-month expiration drop-off will tell the tale. I am looking for early signs of the REO inventory entering the market. So far, the banks continue to hold on. We all know they can't do that forever...

Monday, July 23, 2007

Inventory top in July? Who would have thunk it? As usual, these week-over-week changes are highly volatile. Therefore, I will not stick my neck out by predicting an inventory top within the next couple of weeks:

However, here for your consideration, is a ghastly grim and ancient graph from night's plutonian shore. It shows daily Metro MLS inventory for Sacramento County from June 2005 to present:

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

I've decided to start a new series in which I compare stats for selected areas/cities to give folks a more in depth look at how "local" real estate can be. My data will center around groups of square feet (i.e., 1500-1999). I'm also removing data that's obviously a mistake ($23/SF houses and $2400/SF houses). Time permitting, I'll try a new city/area every week or so. Feel free to suggest places for me to compare. Enjoy!

According to KFBK (via RealtyTrac) Sacramento County had 3400 foreclosures in June, while the entire state had "about 4600." Of course, KFBK devoted 30 seconds to the story. If they had had a whole minute, they might have had time to wonder why a county with a mere 3.6% share of the population had 74% of the foreclosures. I guess Sacramento really is different. Hat tip: Bubble Sitter

Monday, July 16, 2007

Another commentary-free week since I've been exceedingly busy. Except to say, looks like inventory rebounded after the typical end-of-the-month drop, and FIT percentage grew for the first time in a while in Sac county. Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse for those guys... And Sippn, you're welcome. :)

Sunday, July 08, 2007

The monthly inventory drop is upon us this week, with a drop of 357 over last week:

The drop was felt across all segments of the market, with almost every price level and seller category showing a decrease. Some have speculated that the slight drop in flippers in trouble inventory could be due to foreclosures. While that could be the case, I will reserve judgment until a few more weeks have passed. Indeed, flipper market share is undiminished, indicating a broader trend is at work.

Friday, July 06, 2007

Our latest update in the Distressed Properties series finds more of the same. In short, a 15% increase in distressed properties and a 3.9% increase in inventory. 22.4% of total inventory is either a short sale or REO. I have started separating the count by type (short sale or REO). I wish I would have started earlier though! However, something tells me I'll have plenty of opportunities in the future to add more data.

Thursday, July 05, 2007

Looks like they're getting desperate out there. Aaron Krowne is being sued over an article he posted on his Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter. Just wanted to echo OC_Renter and encourage everyone to support Aaron in his defense against this legal assault. The REIC is getting scared, and like any wounded animal, it tends to strike out when it's cornered.

Monday, July 02, 2007

The early June sales figures are in. June has typically been the high sales month for the year, but it's not shaping up this way for 2007. Expect this number to rise by a hundred or so as MLS is updated by some of the stragglers.

We're at about 17,650 for inventory which gives us around an 11-month supply of inventory. We also lost 985 homes that expired at the end of June, the highest for any day that I've ever seen.

Sunday, July 01, 2007

Wow, I can't believe how busy I've been! Sorry about the lateness once again. BTW, I'm putting this below AB's post since the sales info is a bit more interesting in any case. Nothing like getting the June sales numbers on July 2! The Bee has nothing on us. :)