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A lot of good stuff there. Go read. One takeaway - less than half of the 1st-3rd round picks end up being long term starters.

Other takeaway - the Lions draft in 2006 was historically bad. The author ran ten scenarios where he chose players at random from all the possible picks at Detroit's selections, and six out of ten times he outdrafted Matt Millen. The Lions could have thrown darts at the players who were still available on the board, and would likely have come out better, even if they had hit a guy eventually drafted in the 6th round using their 1st round pick.