Sunday, April 17, 2011

GEAB 54: Breakdown of the global economic, financial and monetary system by Q3 2011

LEAP 2020 releases an economic anticipation newsletter every month (except in August). The overall theory is valid, but they are often off with the timings (always difficult) and very much pro-European.

The budgetary crisis, or how the United States plunges willingly or by force into this unprecedented austerity and takes whole swathes of the global economy and finance with it

The crisis in US Treasury bonds, or how the US Federal Reserve reaches the "end of the road" which began in 1913 and must face up to its bankruptcy whatever accounting sleight of hand is chosen

The US Dollar crisis, or how the jolts in the US currency that will characterize the ending of QE2 in the second quarter of 2011 will be the beginnings of a massive devaluation (around 30% in a few weeks).… (page 2) - Public Announcement

Military operations in Libya:A powerful boost to global geopolitical breakup. In January 2011, in GEAB N°51, LEAP/E2020 anticipated that 2011 would be a ruthless year, especially for those who weren’t prepared for further shocks from the global systemic crisis, having spent two years in trying to treat the symptoms instead of causes of the crisis. Military intervention in Libya seems emblematic of this situation because it involves a set of participants who are not prepared for the changes brought about by the crisis and who are trying to respond in a confused and therefore dangerous manner… (page 12)

April 2011 GEAB $ Index: The US Dollar accelerates its fall in value against the €, ¥, Ұ and R$ currency basketThis index, measuring GDP expressed in US Dollars, allows, for example, the assessment of the very substantial decline in the US economy relative to the global economy’s key players. And, as regards investments in currency terms, it gives a pertinent indication of the actual loss in value of assets denominated in US Dollars… (page 23)

The GlobalEurometre - Results & AnalysesWe have seen a rise in the majority of respondents (59% in April versus 45% in March) believing that Eurozone economic governance will not be established by the end of 2011, which is quite surprising because this governance is, in fact, in the course of being put into place. How opinion evolves in the coming months will show if Euroland is capable of communicating effectively on this subject… (page 24)