NEWARK, N.J. (AP) -- New Jersey is more than a half-year into a mild recession that should end in early 2010, according to a Rutgers University economic forecast released Wednesday.

The state will lose about 20,000 jobs beyond the 10,000 already lost this year before a recovery begins, said the semiannual report of the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service.

The report appears to be the first analysis to claim that New Jersey is in recession and describe its breadth and magnitude.

"The state's job base has barely changed since the beginning of 2006, while employment in the U.S. continued to grow until December 2007," said Nancy Mantell, the service's director.

A recession is generally considered two consecutive quarters of falling gross domestic product, so confirmation occurs after a recession has started. No such measure is available for New Jersey, so the Rutgers assessment is based largely on job losses, Mantell said.

New figures Wednesday from the state Labor Department presented an even harsher picture than the Rutgers report, finding that New Jersey lost 14,100 jobs in the first half of the year.

Mantell predicts job losses will continue for two years, but the state will then resume adding jobs, leading to a gain of 250,000 over the next decade.

The total predicted job loss of about 31,000 during a nine-quarter recession is less than recent recessions in New Jersey: 247,000 during nine quarters in the early 1990s, and 60,000 over five quarters around 2001, Mantell said.

The report comes as residents of New Jersey and the nation cope with growing unemployment, rising prices for gasoline and food, but falling prices for real estate.

"Things are going to be a little tight for a while. But compared to the national recession, we don't think this will be as bad," Mantell said.

Gov. Jon S. Corzine and others have said the nation has already entered a recession. The acting chief of the governor's Office of Economic Growth, Angie McGuire, on Wednesday said the administration has taken steps to address tough conditions, including cutting spending in the state budget that took effect July 1.

McGuire also said the state has taken steps to improve the business climate over the past several years: It eliminated two business taxes that saved companies $275 million, and prevented an automatic tax increase that would have cost businesses $350 million by using unspent funds to bolster the unemployment benefits trust fund.

Other measures include making it easier for businesses to obtain state financing and by giving developers extra time to complete projects, she said.

The state economy peaked at the end of 2007 and recessionary or near-recessionary conditions began in January, said James W. Hughes, dean of Rutgers' Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy. Hughes said the state economy was "virtually dead in the water in 2007, and now it has moved into a contraction phase."

As a result, people already looking for a job or trying to sell their home will face an even tougher challenge, he said.

Adding to the misery is that many families have almost no savings, compared to the 1990 recession, when the savings rate was about 6 percent, he said. "Many households have a slight or nonexistent cushion," Hughes said.

He cautioned that the report's prediction for a 2010 turnaround was calculated before the latest spike in oil prices and the recent turmoil in the mortgage market.

The report was released during a conference at the Bloustein School that featured Patrick O'Keefe, the former chief executive of the New Jersey Builders Association, who said prices for existing homes will continue to fall in New Jersey.

"If we have a very severe recession, then the difficulties in the housing market would be compounded. If we have a mild tightening, or a rebound, then the housing market would still have to work through a number of problems," said O'Keefe, director of economic research at J.H. Cohn, an accounting and consulting firm based in Roseland.

Prices have dropped about 10 percent in the past year, and could drop 12 percent to 15 percent over the next 12 months, O'Keefe said, resulting in a loss of nearly one-fourth their value in two years.

Downward pressure on prices will come from a large and growing inventory of unsold homes bolstered by more foreclosures, he said.

He said new home starts will average 18,500 this year and next, a big drop from 2005, when 38,000 new homes were built in New Jersey.

The forecast that in the 12 months ending in April, nearly 80 percent of the state's new jobs came in education and health services, and professional and business services. Smaller gains were seen in leisure and hospitality services, other services, and information.

All other sectors experienced losses, with one-third each in manufacturing and finance, Mantell said, attributing losses in finance to the softening housing market.

"Manufacturing and utilities will continue to lose jobs, though more slowly than in the recent past, and employment in the information industry will decline as well," she said. "The cyclical nature of the construction industry will leave it with almost no net job change over the forecast period."