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Right, but may i know your view of the numbers? Zero exports of Iran will wipe out around 1mbpd, and Saudi so far cuts by 1.2mbpd. And shale is probably will not ramp up too much within a short time period. Looks Saudi has to come back with a strong production surge, given not much coming from Russia, UAE?

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Right, but may i know your view of the numbers? Zero exports of Iran will wipe out around 1mbpd, and Saudi so far cuts by 1.2mbpd. And shale is probably will not ramp up too much within a short time period. Looks Saudi has to come back with a strong production surge, given not much coming from Russia, UAE?

They might not want to reverse the cuts, whatever they said today. They like oil higher, after all. If they announce a complete reversal, prices will start down.

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I dont see the Saudis increasing quotas until they can get the prices back to a selling price that would aid in their economic recovery. The last time they had that price they reverse course to assist President Trump with his sanctions on Iran which ended up flooding the market and driving down prices which incidentally appears to have damaged the US shale industry that is having a difficult time attracting new investments even in the face of higher oil prices.

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President Donald J. Trump has decided not to reissue Significant Reduction Exceptions (SREs) when they expire in early May. This decision is intended to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero, denying the regime its principal source of revenue. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, three of the world’s great energy producers, along with our friends and allies, are committed to ensuring that global oil markets remain adequately supplied. We have agreed to take timely action to assure that global demand is met as all Iranian oil is removed from the market. The White House confirmed on Monday morning that it will end all waivers from Iran sanctions when they expire on May 2. When the US reimposed sanctions in November, 6-month waivers were granted to China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy, and Greece.

The Trump Administration and our allies are determined to sustain and expand the maximum economic pressure campaign against Iran to end the regime’s destabilizing activity threatening the United States, our partners and allies, and security in the Middle East. The President’s decision to eliminate all SREs follows the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, demonstrating the United States commitment to disrupting Iran’s terror network and changing the regime’s malign behavior. We welcome the support of our friends and allies for this effort.

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President Donald J. Trump has decided not to reissue Significant Reduction Exceptions (SREs) when they expire in early May. This decision is intended to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero, denying the regime its principal source of revenue. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, three of the world’s great energy producers, along with our friends and allies, are committed to ensuring that global oil markets remain adequately supplied. We have agreed to take timely action to assure that global demand is met as all Iranian oil is removed from the market. The White House confirmed on Monday morning that it will end all waivers from Iran sanctions when they expire on May 2. When the US reimposed sanctions in November, 6-month waivers were granted to China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy, and Greece.

The Trump Administration and our allies are determined to sustain and expand the maximum economic pressure campaign against Iran to end the regime’s destabilizing activity threatening the United States, our partners and allies, and security in the Middle East. The President’s decision to eliminate all SREs follows the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, demonstrating the United States commitment to disrupting Iran’s terror network and changing the regime’s malign behavior. We welcome the support of our friends and allies for this effort.

Greece and Italie will more than likely increase their purchase of Russian Crude oil (Urals Blend) which is easily available and lower cost for transport to their refineries coming out of the Black Sea ports. China will also increase its purchase of Russian Crude oil via the rail system, Russian pipeline to China and vessels, including additional purchases from the OPEC states (Saudi, Q-8, UAE, Nigeria etc) and also some from the US, Brazil and Canada and other barrels they can snag. Same goes for India and others as well, while Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, SK will try to increase their volumes from the US. China and India may try to push their luck with trying to get away with taking Iranian barrels.

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The Chinese seem more than reluctant to stop purchasing Iranian oil...

"China opposes the unilateral sanctions and so-called "long-arm jurisdictions" imposed by the US. Our cooperation with Iran is open, transparent, lawful and legitimate, and thus should be respected. Our government is committed to upholding the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies and will play a positive and constructive role in upholding the stability of the global energy market."

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And here is that rogue ship, owned by some unknown corporation in some anonymous ship's registry, which has included, in no particular order: India, Malta, Cyprus, Belize, Bolivia (a major maritime power, to be sure), the Marshall Islands (with that registry kept in the State of Virginia, of all places!), Iran, and probably a few others the cops have not yet caught up with.

Notice how it is sitting high on the beach after having discharged its cargo. It was anchored and light, the storm wind caught all that exposed metal, and pushed and dragged the anchors until it beached.

What can the Americans do about it? Well, they could always go put a torpedo into it. Nothing like a busted tanker to stop it trading in rogue oil. Then again, the Iranians seem to take the point of view that it is the Americans that have gone rogue. Depends on your point of view, I suppose.

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Unfortunately for some posters here I see $84 Brent in the coming months, never in a straight line of course. Those on here expecting $40 are in some dreamland because at that price producers lose money and cannot afford to spend on new capital projects. The Shale industry in USA ( that produces the wrong type of oil by the way) would disappear over night. I suspect that $80 Brent would be most beneficial to consumers and the industry alike. It is not easy to produce a barrel of oil, people work very hard in dangerous conditions to do it and the price should reflect that.

The oil price should NOT be a political tool but the president of USA has made it one and he no doubt will shoot himself in the foot with it.

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And here is that rogue ship, owned by some unknown corporation in some anonymous ship's registry, which has included, in no particular order: India, Malta, Cyprus, Belize, Bolivia (a major maritime power, to be sure), the Marshall Islands (with that registry kept in the State of Virginia, of all places!), Iran, and probably a few others the cops have not yet caught up with.

Notice how it is sitting high on the beach after having discharged its cargo. It was anchored and light, the storm wind caught all that exposed metal, and pushed and dragged the anchors until it beached.

What can the Americans do about it? Well, they could always go put a torpedo into it. Nothing like a busted tanker to stop it trading in rogue oil. Then again, the Iranians seem to take the point of view that it is the Americans that have gone rogue. Depends on your point of view, I suppose.

This ship sailed also under Sierra Leone, Togo and Panama flag among others... And changed the name nine times since last August.

They can flag reflag all they want. How many of these rogue vessels will be operated? what will be the costs if they are caught and punished?

The US Navy is very capable of enforcing sanctions and naval blockades.

If it comes down to it, and the US has to enforce the sanctions , the US will , with assistance of others if needed if not on its own, financial black listing and targeting will be a critical resource. The Treasury through the OFAC and FinCEN will be vigilant.

Goldman Sachs expects the United States’ decision to end exemptions from sanctions for countries still buying oil from Iran to have a limited impact on crude prices, even though the timing is likely to have caught energy market participants by surprise.

“While we acknowledge the near-term upside price risks, we reiterate our fundamentally derived Brent price trading range of $70-75 per barrel for the second quarter of 2019,” the U.S. investment bank said in a research note published Monday, Reuters reported."

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It is not easy to produce a barrel of oil, people work very hard in dangerous conditions to do it and the price should reflect that.

The truth in this statement, contrasted by the ways the market appears (to me) to work at circumventing/ignoring this fact, tells me that markets value oil price volatility more than the energy produced by it. MK Hubbert rolling in his grave...