Probability Thread

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What are the odds for hitting edge parity on a 4 x 4? I'd say 40 %, since there are 5 possible situations after F3L (0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 dedges flipped) and only 2 of these are "wrong" (1 and 3). However, after several dozens of solves I can't seem to get any less than a 60 % chance to hit edge parity. I'm using the 3 x 3 reduction method (centers first, then pair the edges, then solve like a 3 x 3). Is my method invoking unfair amounts of parity cases? Is there anything I can do to hit parity less frequently?

What are the odds for hitting edge parity on a 4 x 4? I'd say 40 %, since there are 5 possible situations after F3L (0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 dedges flipped) and only 2 of these are "wrong" (1 and 3). However, after several dozens of solves I can't seem to get any less than a 60 % chance to hit edge parity. I'm using the 3 x 3 reduction method (centers first, then pair the edges, then solve like a 3 x 3). Is my method invoking unfair amounts of parity cases? Is there anything I can do to hit parity less frequently?

Click to expand...

Call the UB edge 1, the UR edge 2, the UF edge 3, and the UL edge 4, for the sake of this discussion. Now let us consider the ways that you can have parity.

1 and 2 are flipped - NO PARITY
2 and 3 are flipped - NO PARITY
3 and 4 are flipped - NO PARITY
4 and 1 are flipped - NO PARITY
1 and 3 are flipped - NO PARITY
2 and 4 are flipped - NO PARITY

3 Edges

1 is not flipped - PARITY
2 is not flipped - PARITY
3 is not flipped - PARITY
4 is not flipped - PARITY

4 ֵEdges

All four are not flipped - NO PARITY

If you count up each of the 'Parity' and 'No parity', you'll see that the split is 50%. The fact that you're seeing 60% is just unfortunate, and over a long number of solves, you'd see it settle to 50%.