With Rae’s announcement this week that he will step down as an MP, two apparently solid Liberal ridings – his, and the Montreal riding of Bourassa, where Liberal Denis Coderre also recently stepped aside – will be at stake.

The third-party Liberals admit anything less than a clear-cut victory in both contests would be a blow to the party’s momentum heading into the 2015 federal election.

“If we lose them, people are going to say the Liberals are fading away,” said Liberal MP Jim Karygiannis. “We’ve got to hold them at all costs. We’ve got to win these areas because they’re our ridings. We can’t show weakness. We’ve got to win them with a large plurality. We’ve got to go in and decimate.”

Decimating is what the NDP has in mind, too.

“We want this riding (Toronto Centre) and it means a lot to us,” said NDP riding president Vince Cifani. “We can win it and the numbers show that.”

Rae won the seat in 2011 by 6,000 votes, hardly his best showing. New Democrats doubled their support, leaving him with 41 per cent of the popular vote compared to 30 for the New Democrats.

Among the names already bandied about for the orange team: former MuchMusic VJ Jennifer Hollett, homelessness and transgender activist Susan Grapka and longtime New Democrat, union rep and lawyer Susan Wallace, who ran for the party against Rae.

“These are three very strong candidates,” Cifani said. “And it’s great that they’re all women. We’ve had a lot of men in Toronto Centre.”

Still, he doesn’t dismiss the impact a big name like Brian Topp, former party president and leadership contender, or Mike Layton, Toronto city councillor and son of Jack Layton, can have.

While Layton couldn’t be reached for comment, Topp confirmed in an email that he would not seek the nomination in Toronto Centre or the Montreal riding of Bourassa.

But Topp said his party has “an excellent chance” in both ridings.

“Toronto Centre has been a heartbreaker for us. Jack Layton ran there unsuccessfully in the past, but we made a remarkable advance in May 2011. As we did, to understate, in Montreal. Those are gains we can build from to give the Liberals a run for their money in these core Liberal seats.”

Cifani said the search for a candidate has begun and he hopes to hold a nomination meeting within the next 30 days. The first election planning meeting is next week and a Pride brunch hosted by the riding association, featuring NDP Leader Tom Mulcair on June 30, is expected to feature the NDP contenders.

The Liberals, meanwhile, are cautiously optimistic about holding onto both Toronto Centre and Bourassa.

Bourassa will be an important test for both Trudeau and Mulcair as they grapple to win the hearts of Quebecers.

Yet while the popular Coderre lost ground to the NDP in 2011 during the Orange Crush, he was still able to win by more than 3,000 votes. The riding itself has been Liberal in all but two elections since it was created in 1968.

Toronto Centre will likely be the bigger fight and an important gauge of newly elected leader Justin Trudeau’s appeal with voters in Toronto and its suburbs, where the Conservatives made a breakthrough in 2011.

A number of names have already surfaced as potential Liberal candidates, including former CTV Canada AM host Seamus O’Regan; Zach Paikin, son of respected political show host Steve Paikin; and former Ontario minister George Smitherman.

Paikin confirmed “a lot of people have been calling me and have been encouraging me to run,” but would otherwise not commit to throwing his hat in the ring.

Smitherman, whose last foray into politics was battling Rob Ford for the Toronto mayorship in 2010, said he’s entertaining the idea. He also said he’s looked at homes within the riding in recent months should an opportunity present itself.

In what seemed to be a pitch, he also said replacing Rae won’t be easy, and that an experienced hand would be best to maintain the Liberal party’s momentum.

“There must be great caution exercised in ensuring that whoever represents this riding next really arrives in Ottawa with something to contribute to the greater Liberal party good and to the greater prospects of forming a government,” he said.

Elections Canada expects to receive official notice of the vacancy in Toronto Centre within a matter of days. After that, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has six months to call a byelection. While Harper has until Nov. 30 to call a byelection in the Bourassa riding, he’s not required to choose the same date for Toronto Centre.

I cover justice, immigration and public safety issues as part of the Postmedia News politics team. I also keep tabs on what the official Opposition — the NDP — is up to in the House of Commons.
Before... read more coming here I spent several years in Montreal and Toronto with The Canadian Press covering provincial politics and major crime and court stories. I also helped cover the war in Afghanistan from inside and outside the wire.
I previously worked for the Ottawa Sun chasing crime stories and following convicts through the court system.
I love the unpredictability of my job and believe the opportunity to help document history as it unfolds is an awesome privilege that never ceases to give me chills.
I'm also thrilled to be back in Ottawa — my home town.
When not working, I love playing soccer, snowboarding, hitting up a live rock/blues/soul/funk show, indulging in my favourite microbrew with friends or hanging out with my three (not so little anymore) sisters!View author's profile