New Ariz. congressional map may alter races for Congress

Analyst says changes likely to benefit Dems

by Dan Nowicki - Oct. 5, 2011 12:00 AMThe Arizona Republic

Congressional incumbents and potential challengers at last have a sense of what the state's 2012 election map will look like now that the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission has adopted a draft. But the new lines, which include three ostensibly competitive districts out of nine, still raise hard questions as to who will run where.

The final draft didn't put any two U.S. House incumbents in the same district, but it might as well have. Freshman U.S. Rep. Ben Quayle, R-Ariz., who now represents a Phoenix-based district, has found himself in a competitive new district that also would include Tempe and parts of Scottsdale, Mesa and Chandler. Fellow freshman U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., lists his residence in Fountain Hills, which is now part of a sprawling district that includes most of western Arizona and very little of the Scottsdale-centric district he currently serves.

Schweikert on Tuesday sent an e-mail to supporters announcing that he will run in a new Republican-leaning district that includes much of Scottsdale and other northeast Valley communities. That is the same district that Quayle plans to run in, according to a GOP official and another person familiar with his thinking.

The way the lines are drawn for the district, which includes much of Quayle's present district and whose border is close to his home, it does not have an incumbent.

The potential of a Quayle vs. Schweikert slugfest is just one problem Republicans have with the map, which one political observer said generally has left those on the right "flummoxed." Republicans, who now control five of Arizona's eight U.S. House districts, are concerned that some of their incumbents generally have gotten a raw deal, complaining that GOP U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar's swing district also would tilt too Democratic under the new map.

"It is a map with significant partisan implications," said Stuart Rothenberg, a national political analyst who publishes the nonpartisan Washington, D.C.-based "Rothenberg Political Report." "It really helps Democrats and screws Republicans. . . . This was just a wholesale redrawing of the state, and I think Democrats have to feel really good about that."

The number of Arizona's congressional districts is growing from eight to nine to accommodate the state's population growth over the past decade.

The map as adopted Monday on a divided vote of the five-member commission is not yet final. The public will have the opportunity to weigh in during a series of statewide hearings starting later this month, and the U.S. Department of Justice must approve the map to the make sure it complies with a federal law that safeguards the rights of minority voters.

But while additional adjustments are likely, nobody is predicting that the map will change dramatically from the draft, which has four of the new nine congressional districts leaning Republican. Democratic U.S. Reps. Ed Pastor and Raśl Grijalva would be in line for two safe seats.

The redistricting commission is made up of an independent chairwoman, two Democrats and two Republicans. Supporters of the new map are touting three of the new congressional districts as competitive, meaning neither party should have an automatic advantage based on voter registration numbers. Besides the new Maricopa County district that includes Quayle's Paradise Valley home, the new districts that cover areas now represented by Gosar and U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., also are considered competitive, at least on paper. Giffords, who is recovering from a gunshot wound to the head during a Jan. 8 assassination attempt, has not yet signaled whether she will seek re-election to a fourth term, but if she does, political observers predict she would be difficult, if not impossible, to beat.

The commissioners relied on Arizona voter behavior in the 2008 presidential race and the 2010 statewide elections in order to gauge the competitiveness factor of the new districts. Over the past 10 years, three of the state's eight districts have been represented in different election cycles by both Democrats and Republicans.

Another change between the current map and the new draft is that the number of districts touching the U.S.-Mexican border has grown from two to three, reflecting the priority members of the public put on border issues during early hearings before the commission. One district, however, barely touches the border, so its status as a border district may be somewhat symbolic.

Rothenberg noted that the national political atmospherics will affect the competitive U.S. House races in next year's election. President Barack Obama will be on the ballot seeking a second term.

"The problem for Democrats is this election, this environment, may not be ideal," Rothenberg said. "If we do have a change election, it will be about the president. Just because there are a couple of competitive open seats here, Democrats can't be sure of winning them."

Ideally, neither Quayle nor Schweikert - or any other incumbent of the same party - would ever want to face off in the same district. Schweikert moved quickly Tuesday to stake a claim on the district that both have been eyeing.

"Should the proposed congressional district map passed by the Independent Redistricting Commission become final, I intend to run for re-election in the new Congressional District 6," Schweikert said in the e-mail. "My longtime ties to Scottsdale include being raised there, attending elementary and high school there, along with representing the city in Congress and in the state Legislature. (My wife) Joyce and I own a house in Scottsdale and I cannot imagine running anywhere else."

Other incumbents may not find themselves looking at primary battles with fellow incumbents, but the new map is likely to change the dynamics of their races, too.

Gosar, who lives in Flagstaff, may find his re-election fight has gotten tougher in a redrawn rural district that will tilt more to Democrats. Gosar's district sprawls over much of northern and eastern Arizona and is one of the three border districts.

But a Gosar campaign consultant last week said Gosar is comfortable representing rural Arizonans of different political stripes.

"What we've found, and what I think even what the current district shows, is that the voters in the rural area, even if they're Democrats, are very conservative Democrats," said Max Fose, general consultant for Gosar's campaign.

Even though the map isn't yet final, it still gives potential House contenders enough information to start making decisions about whether there is a district they feel confidant about running in.

Possible congressional candidates whose names have been in circulation include state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Phoenix; state Sen. Ron Gould, R-Lake Havasu City; state Sen. David Schapira, D-Tempe; Republican Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu; Republican Arizona Corporation Commissioner Gary Pierce; and GOP Corporation Commissioner Bob Stump, who shares the name but is not related to the late longtime U.S. Rep. Bob Stump, R-Ariz., who served in Congress from 1977 to 2003.

Some Democrats also want former U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz., to consider running again in the new competitive district that includes his hometown of Tempe. Mitchell served two terms before losing his seat to Schweikert in the 2010 election. He wouldn't have to face Schweikert again. If Quayle doesn't run in the Tempe district, there would be no incumbent in the race.

"Harry Mitchell for Congress? Don't rule it out, folks," Alexis Tameron, Mitchell's former chief of staff, said Monday in a Twitter message.

The new map did bring a sigh of relief to some Republicans. Former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon, R-Ariz., and former state House Speaker Kirk Adams, R-Mesa, had been expecting to duke it out for the seat of U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., who is running for the U.S. Senate. But an earlier version of the draft map last week had Salmon, Adams, Quayle and Schweikert in the same district. Now Salmon and Adams are back in a solidly Republican East Valley district with rival GOP hopefuls Chuck Gray, a former state Senate majority leader from Mesa, and Travis Grantham, a Gilbert small-business owner and Arizona Air National Guard pilot.

"It's a district that we know and are comfortable with and it's really the one that we thought we were running for," said Chad Heywood, Adams' campaign manager. "It's a great, conservative district."

Adam Deguire, Salmon's campaign manager, noted that Salmon represented part of the East Valley during his previous 1995 to 2001 tenure in Congress and was the 2002 GOP gubernatorial nominee.

"We're confident no matter what his district looks like people will recognize his name and remember his record of serving Arizona citizens," Deguire said.