Attacking doubles with progressive thinkingTHE 6-UP SLAMMER (Part 1)

By Statsman

Special Report

The business of tackling doubles is one that still occupies the mind of the rank-and-file Aussie punter, despite the presence of more and more exotic forms of betting.

True, the 'daily double' and the extra double' do not carry the same turnover clout they had, say, 10 years ago, but a lot of money pours into them each raceday. And why not? They offer the small punter the chance of good returns for a small outlay.

For any businesslike bettor the double can be a source of worthwhile profits on a regular basis. But, like any form of betting, the punter has to adopt a sensible, pragmatic discipline if he is to make his doubles betting pay off.

Most punters use multiple combinations in their doubles betting. They may link three horses in the first leg with three in the second leg - nine combinations for $9, assuming $1 bets. By combining several horses in this fashion you should hit the double fairly often, but you also will miss out many times.

With a nine-unit outlay each time, you are certain to end up a loser in the long run. Bearing this in mind, then, we have to come up with a selection plan and a staking plan which can help us cope with losing runs - and enable us to get away with a fair and reasonable profit.

The method I am now about to outline hits doubles frequently and on occasions it has the capacity to land some big drops. Now, let me say right now that although I recommend a certain selection approach, I am not saying you should slavishly follow it. You may prefer to throw in your own selections, but stick to the set staking plan.

For the purposes of this article, I am recommending you use a reliable morning newspaper pre-post betting market when making your selections. But, as I say, any selection method can be used, provided it can deliver the winners!

What we do with this doubles approach is to play two progressions at the same time. The first race of the double in each progression will be our KEY race. In the No. 1 progression the 3rd favourite in the pre-post betting market is our KEY horse in the first leg. The second progression sees us using the 4th favourite in the pre-post market as the KEY horse.

If you have two or more horses on the same line of betting (that is, two or more 3rd or 4th favourites) then use the one which is highest in the TAB order. This ploy usually works out profitably.

Why do we use the 3rd and 4th favourites as the bankers? Generally, they can provide a nice balance between the shorter priced and longer priced runners. We need some value in our doubles and the leverage these horses give is all-important.

Now we come to the '6-Up Slammer' aspect of the approach. In the second leg of the double you link the first 6 favourites with the key horse in the first leg. So our opening doubles read as follows:

FIRST PROGRESSION

1st Leg 3rd pre-post favourite

2nd Leg 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th pre-post favourites.

Bet (50 cent units) 1 x 6 = $3.00.

SECOND PROGRESSION

1st Leg 4th pre-post favourite

2nd Leg 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th pre-post favourites.

Bet (50 cent units) 1 x 6 = $3.00.

We bet each of these doubles progression series independently of each other, with the progress of one never influencing the other.

In each progression we set up a DUE COLUMN and every bet lost is entered into this column. We always divide our due column by 15 and this will tell us how many doubles tickets to buy in each progression.

For example: Let's assume the Due Column is showing $60. Divided by 15, this gives us the answer 4. Therefore, we must buy 4 doubles on each combination. In this particular progression, then, for a cost of $12 (1 x 6 x 4 x 50c).

Whenever we strike a double paying a little more than $15 (for 50c) we will clear the Due Column. Any double around the $20 mark returns a fair profit.

Now, do keep in mind that we are playing two progressions. You have two horses going for you as Bankers in the first leg, but you are playing each separately in the progressions.

We have six combinations to play for a start-up cost of $3 each. This is figuring one ticket on each combination. When we lose we put the total amount lost in the Due Columns and divide by 15. The resulting figure is not the amount we bet but the amount of tickets we have to buy for each combination on the next bet.

You can round up any fractions to the nearest whole number (i.e. $48 in the Due Column divided by 15 would equal 3.2, which is then rounded up to 4).

What happens when we strike a winning double? We deduct the full amount bet in that progression from the profit and if there is an overall profit on the progression you close that progression off and begin again. If, despite the double dividend, the progression is still losing, then continue, carrying over the Due Column total that is left after deducting what you won on the double.

My experience has been that this method will give you a strike rate with the doubles of around the 40 per cent mark. Flat bet profits can be made, so if you are not a fan of progressive betting you can simply use level stakes.

But the money management side of things is most important and I would urge you to carefully consider all I have said about the two separate progressions. In the long run, the progressions will lift any level stake profits by at least 20 per cent on turnover.

This is not to be sneezed at. The following is a recent progression using the'6-Up Slammer' method:

In the last progression example, the bet has risen, with a Due Column target of 51, to 4 units on each double (24 units for the 6 combinations). When the total 140 return is achieved, for the 4-unit bet, the money management plan turns losses into a healthy profit of close to 100 per cent.

In all, then, these three progressions have shown an outlay of 105 units for a return of 202 units, a profit on turnover of 92.3 per cent.

On level stakes betting, assuming an outlay of 6 units per double (18 doubles at 6 units equals 108), the return would have been 154 units, a profit on turnover of just over 42 per cent, much lower than that provided for by the progression method.

In another test example of this progression doubles method, playing it on Sydney Saturday daily and extra doubles, 11 doubles were struck from 28, a strike rate of 39 per cent. The profit on turnover achieved was 79 per cent.

In a more recent test, a total of 50 doubles were tested in Sydney and Melbourne (midweek and Saturdays) for a strike rate of 19 doubles. The profit on turnover was 85 per cent.

This is a good, strong and reliable selection and staking plan for the rank and file punter. There is never a great deal of money to be risked, providing you can maintain the flow of doubles returns. Using the 3rd and 4th favourites in the first leg is one way of ensuring regular returns.

You may be able to discover a better way. If so, you may even be able to improve on the profitability. Good slamming!