I don't know if I'd pick any WW over Usman rn. Dude is coming for the strap.

id like to see him versus Wonderboy/Till winner for the number 1 contender spot that matchup would really gauge where hes at,
this fight against maia is a stylistic cakewalk for him , hes a much better version of CC and since Tyron will fight the RDA/Colby winner that all could realistically happen

But i agree Usman has been the darkhorse of 170 for a while now even at 30%

170 lbs.: Michel Prazeresvs. Zak Cummings
Michel Prazeres (24-2) put a 2-2 UFC start behind him to rattle off six straight wins, including an upset of Gilbert Burns and a bonus-winning, north-south choke of Josh Burkman. His recent victory over Des Green marked his third time missing weight in four fights, however, and prompted his return to !elterweight for the first time since 2013.
“Trator” will give up six inches of height and eight inches of reach to Cummings.
Though unsuccessful on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 17, Zak Cummings (21-5) put together a 6-2 UFC record to emerge as an unexpected Welterweight contender. His last two fights have seen him secure first-round submissions of Alexander Yakovlev and Nathan Coy, the former of whom had not been submitted since 2009.
This will be his first fight in more than one year thanks to injury.
Here we have a guy who couldn’t make Lightweight against a guy who has twice failed to make Welterweight, one time by such a huge margin that his opponent refused to fight. These are some right big lads, I tell you what.
This is honestly a toughie: Prazeres is the more decorated grappler and his hand speed makes up for his stubby arms, but Cummings is a quality pressure fighter who uses his size and power to great effect. It’s worth considering, however, that Prazeres’ wins over Burns and Green are better than anything Cummings has on his resume (none of Cummings’ six UFC wins have come over current members of the roster).
Prazeres’ superior wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu should be enough to get him the win here, as he’s more than strong enough to physically hold his own against solid Welterweight competition. Cummings has a chance if he properly exploits that monster reach advantage, but the more likely outcome sees Prazeres bully his way inside and grind him down.Prediction: Prazeres via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
Brandon Moreno (14-4) essentially sprinted his way up the Flyweight ranks, picking up bonus-wining submissions of Louis Smolka and Dustin Ortiz to earn himself a main event slot. Said opportunity proved too much, too soon, as Sergio Pettis survived an early submission attack to soundly outpoint “The Assassin Baby” in Mexico City.
Ten of his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) wins have come via submission.
After unifying the LFA and RFA titles with a submission of Damacio Page, Alexandre Pantoja (18-3) earned the No. 1 spot on TUF 24, defeating Moreno and Kai Kara-France before suffering an upset loss to Hiromasa Ogikubo in the semifinals. He went on to defeat Eric Shelton and Neil Seery in the Octagon before losing a competitive decision to Dustin Ortiz in January.
He replaces Ray Borg, who withdrew to take care of his newborn son, on just under three weeks’ notice.
Related ‘Tough Times Ahead’ For Baby Borg

Moreno is legit as hell and I have a bad habit of not giving him enough credit, but that Pettis fight was seriously underwhelming. He looked absolutely lost on the feet and, after a strong start, struggled to get his takedowns going against a guy with mediocre takedown defense. Without the element of surprise Moreno had on TUF, I see him struggling quite a bit more here.
Pantoja has the wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place and is markedly superior to “The Assassin Baby” in the stand up. Hard leg kicks, rapid punching combos, and a strong sprawl carry Pantoja to a wider victory than before. Prediction: Pantoja via unanimous decision
115 lbs.: Poliana Botelho vs. Syuri Kondo
Poliana Botelho (6-1) took just two years to go from her debut to the XFC Flyweight title, losing only to fellow UFC competitor Viviane Pereira along the way. Her UFC debut wound up being one of the most bizarre in recent memory, as Pearl Gonzalez elected to basically lean on her against the cage for 15 minutes while Botelho landed short punches.
Five of her six wins have come by knockout.
Syuri Kondo (6-0) — a decorated professional wrestler — proved her skills were legit with a win over current Rizin standout Kanna Asakura in her pro debut. She ultimately won the Pancrase Strawweight title before scraping past Korean slugger Chan Mi Jeon in Saitama.
She stands four inches shorter than Botelho at 5’4.”
I really should come up with a term for “one fighter has the skills to win this but always fails to utilize them properly.” Botelho’s height, reach, and punching power make her a legit threat at 115, but she can be bafflingly lackadaisical in fights. Kondo is anything but; she’s incredibly busy, throwing almost 300 strikes in 15 minutes against Jeon and landing nine per minute.
Though Kondo’s lack of head movement and predictability with her endless stream of 1-2s limit her potential, she’s so tough and aggressive that she’s a legit threat to the middle of the Strawweight pack. Unless Botelho can crack her chin, Kondo outworks her for a wide decision victory.Prediction: Kondo via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Humberto Bandenay vs. Gabriel Benitez
Peru’s Humberto Bandenay (14-4) defied massive odds to destroy TUF: “Latin America” 3 winner Martin Bravo in 26 seconds via head kick. This will be his first appearance in nine months, however, as injury and **** issues scrapped fights with Alexander Volkanovski and Steven Peterson.
He stands a massive 6’1,” five inches taller than Gabriel Benitez (20-6).
“Moggly” choked out Diego Rivas on TUF: “Latin America” before losing to Leonardo Morales in the semifinals. He entered his last fight on a 1-2 skid, but defied the odds to earn a career-best win over Jason Knight in Fresno.
Ten of his 16 stoppages have come by submission.
Bandenay’s got some wicked kicks and solid footwork that would have served him well against the aforementioned Peterson. Benitez, unfortunately, has a much more rounded game than “Ocho,” not to mention quite a bit more experience at the highest levels than the Peruvian upstart. “Moggly” has the skills to win a kickboxing match and some sneaky chokes waiting should Bandenay elect to take it south.
Bandenay is just 23 years old, towering for a Featherweight, and trains under the venerable Colin Oyama. I fully expect him to stay on the roster for a while. For now, though, Benitez’s experience wins the day in a competitive affair.Prediction: Benitez via unanimous decision

Line is going nuts for Usman... I've won so much money over the years betting on MAIA.. He's old but one take down and I think he could get Usman in a world of hurt.. He didn't look all that bad against T-wood either..

Maia sucks against wrestlers though but he has massive MMA experience against Usman, one mistake by Usman and Maia might get this.. I'm waiting at these odds to move more as they are only going one way obviously.. Maia doesn't get knocked out or stopped easily either..

Gotta think Maia is already trained up to face a wrestler because he just fought T-Wood..

I dont think Usman is going to blow Maia out of there. Maia isnt going to allow that. I also think Maia is Usmans best opponent he has ever faced and lines tend to blow up slightly for undefeated fighters. Gonna have a look at the overs an dec. props once they come out.

Edit: Usman has one loss but was long time ago. These days he has that undefeated feel to him. Different fighter altogether.

His command of range seems far superior to Rivasís and I donít see too much grappling in this fight. Rivas had no offense against Quinonez on the feet because he struggled with range and then he was dominated on the mat in his fight before that.

170 lbs.: Michel Prazeresvs. Zak Cummings
Michel Prazeres (24-2) put a 2-2 UFC start behind him to rattle off six straight wins, including an upset of Gilbert Burns and a bonus-winning, north-south choke of Josh Burkman. His recent victory over Des Green marked his third time missing weight in four fights, however, and prompted his return to !elterweight for the first time since 2013.
“Trator” will give up six inches of height and eight inches of reach to Cummings.
Though unsuccessful on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 17, Zak Cummings (21-5) put together a 6-2 UFC record to emerge as an unexpected Welterweight contender. His last two fights have seen him secure first-round submissions of Alexander Yakovlev and Nathan Coy, the former of whom had not been submitted since 2009.
This will be his first fight in more than one year thanks to injury.
Here we have a guy who couldn’t make Lightweight against a guy who has twice failed to make Welterweight, one time by such a huge margin that his opponent refused to fight. These are some right big lads, I tell you what.
This is honestly a toughie: Prazeres is the more decorated grappler and his hand speed makes up for his stubby arms, but Cummings is a quality pressure fighter who uses his size and power to great effect. It’s worth considering, however, that Prazeres’ wins over Burns and Green are better than anything Cummings has on his resume (none of Cummings’ six UFC wins have come over current members of the roster).
Prazeres’ superior wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu should be enough to get him the win here, as he’s more than strong enough to physically hold his own against solid Welterweight competition. Cummings has a chance if he properly exploits that monster reach advantage, but the more likely outcome sees Prazeres bully his way inside and grind him down.Prediction: Prazeres via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
Brandon Moreno (14-4) essentially sprinted his way up the Flyweight ranks, picking up bonus-wining submissions of Louis Smolka and Dustin Ortiz to earn himself a main event slot. Said opportunity proved too much, too soon, as Sergio Pettis survived an early submission attack to soundly outpoint “The Assassin Baby” in Mexico City.
Ten of his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) wins have come via submission.
After unifying the LFA and RFA titles with a submission of Damacio Page, Alexandre Pantoja (18-3) earned the No. 1 spot on TUF 24, defeating Moreno and Kai Kara-France before suffering an upset loss to Hiromasa Ogikubo in the semifinals. He went on to defeat Eric Shelton and Neil Seery in the Octagon before losing a competitive decision to Dustin Ortiz in January.
He replaces Ray Borg, who withdrew to take care of his newborn son, on just under three weeks’ notice.
Related ‘Tough Times Ahead’ For Baby Borg

Moreno is legit as hell and I have a bad habit of not giving him enough credit, but that Pettis fight was seriously underwhelming. He looked absolutely lost on the feet and, after a strong start, struggled to get his takedowns going against a guy with mediocre takedown defense. Without the element of surprise Moreno had on TUF, I see him struggling quite a bit more here.
Pantoja has the wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place and is markedly superior to “The Assassin Baby” in the stand up. Hard leg kicks, rapid punching combos, and a strong sprawl carry Pantoja to a wider victory than before. Prediction: Pantoja via unanimous decision
115 lbs.: Poliana Botelho vs. Syuri Kondo
Poliana Botelho (6-1) took just two years to go from her debut to the XFC Flyweight title, losing only to fellow UFC competitor Viviane Pereira along the way. Her UFC debut wound up being one of the most bizarre in recent memory, as Pearl Gonzalez elected to basically lean on her against the cage for 15 minutes while Botelho landed short punches.
Five of her six wins have come by knockout.
Syuri Kondo (6-0) — a decorated professional wrestler — proved her skills were legit with a win over current Rizin standout Kanna Asakura in her pro debut. She ultimately won the Pancrase Strawweight title before scraping past Korean slugger Chan Mi Jeon in Saitama.
She stands four inches shorter than Botelho at 5’4.”
I really should come up with a term for “one fighter has the skills to win this but always fails to utilize them properly.” Botelho’s height, reach, and punching power make her a legit threat at 115, but she can be bafflingly lackadaisical in fights. Kondo is anything but; she’s incredibly busy, throwing almost 300 strikes in 15 minutes against Jeon and landing nine per minute.
Though Kondo’s lack of head movement and predictability with her endless stream of 1-2s limit her potential, she’s so tough and aggressive that she’s a legit threat to the middle of the Strawweight pack. Unless Botelho can crack her chin, Kondo outworks her for a wide decision victory.Prediction: Kondo via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Humberto Bandenay vs. Gabriel Benitez
Peru’s Humberto Bandenay (14-4) defied massive odds to destroy TUF: “Latin America” 3 winner Martin Bravo in 26 seconds via head kick. This will be his first appearance in nine months, however, as injury and **** issues scrapped fights with Alexander Volkanovski and Steven Peterson.
He stands a massive 6’1,” five inches taller than Gabriel Benitez (20-6).
“Moggly” choked out Diego Rivas on TUF: “Latin America” before losing to Leonardo Morales in the semifinals. He entered his last fight on a 1-2 skid, but defied the odds to earn a career-best win over Jason Knight in Fresno.
Ten of his 16 stoppages have come by submission.
Bandenay’s got some wicked kicks and solid footwork that would have served him well against the aforementioned Peterson. Benitez, unfortunately, has a much more rounded game than “Ocho,” not to mention quite a bit more experience at the highest levels than the Peruvian upstart. “Moggly” has the skills to win a kickboxing match and some sneaky chokes waiting should Bandenay elect to take it south.
Bandenay is just 23 years old, towering for a Featherweight, and trains under the venerable Colin Oyama. I fully expect him to stay on the roster for a while. For now, though, Benitez’s experience wins the day in a competitive affair.Prediction: Benitez via unanimous decision

Prelims Part 2 -

145 lbs.: Enrique Barzola vs. Brandon Davis

Enrique Barzola (14-3-1) defeated Horacio Gutierrez in his Octagon debut to win TUF: “Latin America” 2, only to lose a controversial decision to Kyle Bochniak his next time out. He’s since rattled off three straight, including a mild upset of TUF: “Latin America” 1 competitor Gabriel Benitez.
He will give up three inches of height and two inches of reach to Brandon Davis (9-4).
“Killer B” defeated Austin Arnett in an excellent slugfest to earn a contract on Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series.” Though he lost a decision to Kyle Bochniak in his Octagon debut, he returned less than one month later to out-slug Steven Peterson and earn “Fight of the Night” in the process.
He has knocked out three pro opponents and submitted another two.
This has the potential to be the most entertaining fight of the “Prelims” undercard, as both men are more than happy to bring it. Davis in particular is loads of fun, but unfortunately for him, Barzola has the tools to give him just as much grief as Bochniak did. “El Fuerte” is quite good at getting in and out of the pocket, keeping Davis from getting his longer combinations going, and he’s hit 21 takedowns in his last three fights, so any shenanigans from Davis will be punished by a trip to the mat.
If Davis just had a bit more stopping power, this would be infinitely more intriguing. As is, “Killer B” doesn’t have enough firepower to keep Barzola from picking him apart and manhandling him on the inside. In short, Barzola potshots and slams his way to victory.Prediction: Barzola via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Enrique Briones vs. Frankie Saenz

Enrique Briones (16-7-1) wound up on the wrong end of an incredible upkick knockout on TUF: “Latin America,” but came back strong with a “Fight of the Night” finish of Guido Cannetti at UFC 180. Things went right back to bad, and “Henry Bure” enters the Octagon on the heels of one-sided losses to Cody Garbrandt, Douglas Andrade and Rani Yahya.
His stoppage wins are split 8/6 between knockouts and submissions.
Frankie Saenz (11-4) got off to a red-hot start in UFC, winning three straight and scoring one of the biggest numerical upsets in UFC history over Iuri Alcantara. He went on to lose three straight, including a narrow decision loss to Augusto Mendes that earned “Fight of the Night,” before returning to the win column with an equally narrow decision win over Merab Dvalishvili in Dec. 2017.
Briones is by no means a bad fighter, but this feels like a gimme for Saenz, who has proven he can at least be competitive against strong Bantamweight competition. He can match Briones’ grit and his wrestling, while not elite, should be more than enough to exploit Briones below average takedown defense.
Saenz can hold his own or at the very least survive on the feet long enough to open up his grinding clinchwork and takedowns, which will carry him to a wide decision victory.Prediction: Saenz via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Felipe Silva vs. Claudio Puelles

A first-round knockout of UFC vet Anton Kuivanen brought Felipe Silva (8-1) to the Octagon, where he made an immediate impression by stopping Shane Campbell in 73 seconds. He was a tiny bit less successful against Mairbek Taisumov, who put the Brazilian to sleep with one punch.
All eight of his stoppage wins have come in the first round.
Claudio Puelles — representing Team Chuck Liddell on TUF: “Latin America” 3 — fought his way to the finals before suffering a technical knockout loss to Martin Bravo. He’s been out of action since that Nov. 2016 bout, as injury scrapped a planned fight with Sage Northcutt.
Though he’s just one inch shorter than Silva, he will give up five inches of reach.
Puelles is a good-sized Lightweight with a wide skillset, but I’m not sure he’s quite UFC-ready yet. He struggled against Bravo’s rudimentary striking offense and his wrestling toolbox doesn’t look all that deep. Silva’s sheer power and lethality in the clinch make this a majorly rough matchup for the Peruvian.
Puelles is just 22 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop, but Silva and his kickboxing pedigree will give him a rude reminder that there are levels to this. He batters Puelles with clinch knees and body shots for an early finish.Prediction: Silva via first-round knockout

HUGO -- are there any fights that you are specifically looking at to make big wagers on now? I love when you post your plays before the fight... Perez prop was awesome last weekend on Fight Pass to kick off the card right on the first fight; but I'm curious to know what you're leaning to now...?

HUGO -- are there any fights that you are specifically looking at to make big wagers on now? I love when you post your plays before the fight... Perez prop was awesome last weekend on Fight Pass to kick off the card right on the first fight; but I'm curious to know what you're leaning to now...?

I want to see all the props first. Pretty big on Prazeres at (+125) and now he's up to (+150) on Dimes.

His command of range seems far superior to Rivas’s and I don’t see too much grappling in this fight. Rivas had no offense against Quinonez on the feet because he struggled with range and then he was dominated on the mat in his fight before that.

On second thought, this fight might be on to pass on entirely. I always tell myself not to bet on two bad fighters, and it looks like both these dudes can't get out of their own ways.

Rivas has made no adjustments over the years to figure out how to close distance against length and continues to kickbox by himself until his opponents enter his range. He gets taken down, back taken, mounted, transitioned all over in every fight. He has good grit to fight through deep sub attempts, but he's always getting put in bad spots. Cannetti is the same way. He needs to avoid the mat. He has pretty good TDD when he prioritizes it, but he always either gets overzealous and rushes into grappling exchanges, or has moments where he's caught sleepwalking and gets taken down. Either way, he has a knack for losing fights even if he's winning them up until that point (Briones). He has lost 4 of 5 UFC level fights including TUF.

Can't trust either guy. Need to avoid. I'm typing this out almost to hold myself accountable, since I think there's value in the line on Cannetti but I need to know better than to trust either one of these crappy fighters.

On second thought, this fight might be on to pass on entirely. I always tell myself not to bet on two bad fighters, and it looks like both these dudes can't get out of their own ways.

Rivas has made no adjustments over the years to figure out how to close distance against length and continues to kickbox by himself until his opponents enter his range. He gets taken down, back taken, mounted, transitioned all over in every fight. He has good grit to fight through deep sub attempts, but he's always getting put in bad spots. Cannetti is the same way. He needs to avoid the mat. He has pretty good TDD when he prioritizes it, but he always either gets overzealous and rushes into grappling exchanges, or has moments where he's caught sleepwalking and gets taken down. Either way, he has a knack for losing fights even if he's winning them up until that point (Briones). He has lost 4 of 5 UFC level fights including TUF.

Can't trust either guy. Need to avoid. I'm typing this out almost to hold myself accountable, since I think there's value in the line on Cannetti but I need to know better than to trust either one of these crappy fighters.

Edit: Although if he climbs all the way to +200 I'm betting Cannetti.

I think Cannetti is a Kill or Be Killed type of guy. I've got 2.5u on Won't Go Distance (+100).

Thanks for the post Jibs but they still don't have the Full 20 Props out for any of the fights.

Oh I know, these came out and just thought to copy and show... The rest of the props and odds should be out tomorrow I'd think or very early Saturday morning...

I'm on it.. Trying to get a jump on it this time around as I do see lines moving aggressively with this event already in a few fights..

I'm starting to like just the basic props these days like which I copied and pasted above.. Like the ITD props and Fight won't go the distance.. Gives you a higher probability to win over just a KO, SUB or Round Finishing prop.. You give up some value but your probability of hitting becomes greater.. It does always depend on the odds variations between props though.. The value on those individual SUB, KO and ROUND finishing props do get very appealing though.