178: NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool Picks

It’s NFL Week 5 and bye weeks are in full effect, injuries are starting to ravage teams, and a few of the preseason favorites (Panthers and Cardinals) have looked like anything but contenders. That makes choosing a team for your survivor pool that you feel confident about a bit trickier. Rob Cressy is joined by Tom Hamm on the Bacon Sports podcast as they talk about their NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool Picks.

This week Tom Brady is back for the Patriots and they take on the Browns, a team that most people pick against every week. No doubt 70% of people still alive in their survivor pools will be taking the Patriots, who are the only double digit spread of the week. I do have to caution you, though, I’m never a fan of taking a road team, even if it is the Patriots taking on the winless Browns.

NFL Week 5 is manageable for survivor pool picks as 5 of 14 games have a spread of 6 points or more. Here are those games:

Patriots -10 @ Browns

Why you would take the Patriots: Tom Brady comes back like The Terminator seeking to destroy all in his way. The Patriots open things up, get Gronk more involved, and there’s no way they are losing two games in a row, especially one to the Browns. This game is Tom Brady vs Cody Kessler at QB. Enough said.

How could this pick go wrong? Tom Brady is coming off chilling naked on the beach in Europe. This isn’t the traditional routine that he’s accustomed to. He comes out rusty, which wouldn’t be a surprise for a 39 year old quarterback. A ton of unexplainable things would need to happen (obviously), but just like we saw with Peyton Manning, eventually the greats start to decline. Maybe it happens in this game. I’d prefer to save the Patriots for later on down the road when their engine is humming and there are fewer teams to choose from.

Giants @ Packers -7.5

Why you would take the Packers: The Packers are coming off a bye, they are at home, and the Giants are on a short week (after playing on MNF.) The Packers begin to resemble the Super Bowl contending team that many think they can be. The Giants are also on back to back road games, which never helps.

How could this pick go wrong? I like the Giants to potentially make the playoffs. They’ve got a Super Bowl winning QB and enough WR weapons that can burn you. You can see a scenario where their offense gets hot and the Packers have one of their dud games. Plus, the Giants want to avoid losing three in a row so you know there will be a sense of urgency.

Jets @ Steelers -7

Why you would take the Steelers: Did you watch the Sunday Night Football game where the Steelers smoked the Chiefs? With Le’Veon Bell back the Steelers have the best offense in football and if their defense continues to force turnovers, which is something that Ryan Fitzpatrick loves doing (he has 9 in the last two games), then this game could get out of hand. Pittsburgh is at home, where they always play better, and to add insult to injury the Jets could be without Eric Decker and Darrelle Revis.

How could this pick go wrong? The Jets were a potential playoff team heading into the season. They’ve got a good defensive line, and the Steelers have injuries on their offensive line. They put pressure on Big Ben all day, force a fumble or two, and win a sloppy game close.

Falcons @ Broncos -6

Why you would take the Broncos: The Broncos have the best defensive in football. The Falcons on the other hand have one of the worst. They allow the 4th most points per game (31) and 3rd most yards per game (419.) The Falcons are also remarkably worse on the road than they are at home. I don’t buy into the Falcons being a good team, and the Broncos will find a way to blanket Julio Jones.

How could this pick go wrong? One of these games the lack of having an established QB will rear its ugly head for Denver. It’s still uncertain who will be starting at QB this week, and having Paxton Lynch start his first career game means there’s a large margin of error. The Falcons offense currently leads the NFL in points per game (38) and yards per game (478) so if the Broncos commit turnovers, the Falcons could capitalize.

Texans @ Vikings -6

Why you would take the Vikings: The Vikings are currently giving up the 2nd fewest points per game (12.5) and the Texans have one of the lowest scoring offenses (17.3 ppg, which is 4th worst.) The Vikings offense finds a way to grind it out, at home, against a team without their star defensive player (JJ Watt.)

How could this pick go wrong? Are we all ready to annoit a team lead by Sam Bradford as one of the best in the NFL? (Insert Lee Corso voice) “Not so fast my friend.” Houston is a potential playoff team who has a lot of offensive weapons (even if their ppg doesn’t reflect that.) This game certainly has the chance to be competitive and we are one Sam Bradford hit away from it being Shawn Hill’s team.

Rob’s survivor pool pick: Steelers
Tom’s survivor pool pick: Steelers

I decided to make this a two part podcast, to make it easier for you to listen, where Tom and I talk about the remaining 9 games on the NFL Week 5 slate.

Here’s the games we dish about.

Bengals @ Cowboys pick

Bills @ Rams -2.5

Redskins @ Ravens -4

Chargers @ Raiders -2.5

Eagles -3 @ Lions

Bears @ Colts -4.5

Titans @ Dolphins -3.5

Cardinals -4 @ 49ers (TNF)

Buccaneers @ Panthers (MNF) no line

ACTION ITEMS:

I want to hear from you. Who are you taking in your NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool? Are there any non-obvious teams you particularly like this week? Which teams do you believe in and which do you have questions about? Drop me a line on Twitter @BaconSports or on Snapchat @baconsports and let me know what’s up.

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