Uses the Malaria Potential Occurrence Zone (MOZ) model to calculate
first-order estimates of climate change impacts on malaria. Scenarios generated
by five GCMs reveal an increase in seasonal malaria at the expense of perennial
malaria. This is cause for great concern, because seasonal malaria is most
likely to lead to epidemics among unprepared or nonimmune populations. Hence
climate change could trigger mass migrations of environmental refugees, severely
stressing national and international health infrastructures. Malaria could
become a public health problem for developed countries within decades.

GCM scenarios of climate change were incorporated into an integrated
linked-system model to predict changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next
century, which incorporates the concept of disability-affected life years as a
single measure of disease impact. Results suggest a widespread increase of risk
due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. Incidence of
infection is sensitive to climate change in areas of Southeast Asia, South
America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic.

To investigate numerous anecdotal reports of acute ocular and dermatologic
disease in humans and animals from this region, medical records were reviewed,
ocular examinations were made on representative animal populations, and the
ambient UV-B exposure during the time of maximum thinning of the ozone layer was
estimated to be a 1% increase in annual average exposure. Results do not support
lay reports of ocular and dermatologic disease associated with the ozone hole
over southern Chile. However, should the ambient exposure increase, the
probability of adverse UV-related chronic health effects may increase.