Abortion, East Bloc Reforms Offer Democrats Fresh Hope

December 10, 1989|By Steve Daley.

WASHINGTON — Suddenly, on the cusp of a new decade, the Democratic Party finds itself with a reason to go on. Two reasons, actually.

The 1980s were not kind to Democrats. National politics became the private reserve of Ronald Reagan, the most astounding politician of his generation. Reagan and his vice president, George Bush, toyed with the Democrats through three elections, reveling in the loyal opposition`s ineptitude, insecurity and internecine spats.

For their part, the Democrats spent the decade lumbering for an issue, fending off Jesse Jackson and pretending that Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis were credible candidates for the White House.

Despite maintaining overwhelming control of Congress, the Democrats continued their White House losing streak that since 1968 has been interrupted only by the melancholy reign of Jimmy Carter.

The Democrats began this year appearing to be as far from winning a national election as they`d been in a generation. And the low-key first year of Bush`s administration, paired with the monumental events in Eastern Europe, serve to firm up the incumbent`s popularity, as well as the notion he will be a hard man to beat in 1992.

Still, some professional pols and party operatives believe there may be a political peace dividend for the Democrats from the Warsaw Pact upheaval.

Closer to home, the unexpected twists in the national abortion debate after this summer`s Supreme Court decision seem to offer Democrats a firm hook upon which to hang an electoral comeback.

In November, Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey collected victories, with their positions on access to abortion functioning as the centerpiece of their respective campaigns.

In fact, since the celebrated Webster case empowered states to enact more restrictive laws on abortion, a heretofore moribund abortion rights constituency has aided mostly Democratic candidates from the New Jersey governor`s mansion to the California state legislature.

In San Diego last week, an underdog Democrat, a supporter of abortion rights, swept to victory after her Roman Catholic bishop had denied her church sacraments because of her views on abortion.

The Republican loser in the legislative race argued that the bishop had made a political martyr of the Democrat, effectively turning the election.

Eddie Mahe, a Republican political consultant, argues that while abortion may be a watershed issue in some state and local races, it will subside as time passes, becoming just another element as the 1990 political season nears. At every turn, however, the fallout from the Webster ruling is working to the advantage of Democrats. Just last week, a Republican candidate for lieutenant governor in Ohio switched his position on abortion rights, adopting a generally supportive posture to the dismay of conservative Republicans and the antiabortion lobby.

In Virginia, Democrat Doug Wilder`s handling of the abortion issue in his governor`s race was particularly deft. He transformed his position for abortion rights into a kind of libertarian manifesto, arguing that his opponent`s hard-edged antiabortion position signaled intrusion by big government into personal lives.

If abortion supplies Democrats with an issue they can exploit domestically, the waning of the Soviet menace seems likely to benefit the perennial outs as well.

The finely honed soft-on-communism, weak-on-defense message that has dogged Democrats since the days of George McGovern may become a tougher sell in an era when Republicans are suddenly talking about big cuts in defense.

Coping with the demise of a great enemy could unhinge national Republicans. The party`s intellectual mouthpieces, from Jeane Kirkpatrick to Patrick Buchanan, have dined out on anti-communism and little else for a generation.

Vice President Dan Quayle is known for little beyond his reflexive Commie-bashing; his remarks before and after last week`s Malta summit indicate he is having trouble changing course despite the conciliatory words and actions of his president.

A Pax Gorbachev could change the political equation for both parties. Like abortion, it could produce surprising electoral results. In the face of all this good news from East Europe, it seems Republicans are the party having trouble getting their political act together.