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Warmest December ends a warm year

December 31, 2015

Preliminary climate summary for December 2015:

For
the 4th consecutive month Minnesota recorded warmer than normal temperatures.
Observers reported mean monthly temperatures for December that were from 8 to
12 degrees F above normal, marking the warmest December in history on a
statewide basis, surpassing the previous record from December 1939.
Extremes for the month ranged from 53F at Marshall on the 9th to -11F at Thief
River Falls on the 28th.

On a statewide basis December of 2015 was the 2nd wettest in history, with an
average value of nearly 1.90 inches. Some observers reported their
wettest December in history, including: 4.09" at Two Harbors; 4.90"
at Caledonia; 5.38" at La Crescent; 4.28" at Preston; and 4.00 inches
at Spring Grove. Snowfall amounts for the month ranged from 3 to 10
inches, with many northern locations receiving over a foot.

For the Twin Cities specifically, December of 2015 was the 2nd warmest in
history, surpassed only by 1877. Only two days brought colder than normal
temperatures. It was the 9th wettest in history with 2.31 inches at MSP
Airport. Snowfall total was 9.4 inches. Only one day was sunny, and
two days were partly cloudy.

Minnesota climate summary for 2015:

Mean
annual temperatures from around that state for 2015 ranged from 1.5 to 2.5F
above average, marking the 6th warmest year in history back to 1895 (statewide annual mean temperature was 44.0°F). The
warmest temperature reading was 99F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on June
10th, the coldest reading was -43F at Cotton (St Louis County) on February 20th.

On a statewide basis, 2015 was wetter than normal, ranking 21st wettest since
1895. Many climate stations reported over 40 inches of precipitation for
the year. Both Austin and Waseca had exceptionally wet years with
approximately 45 inches of precipitation. Most snow fell at Isabella with
96.5 inches. The largest single day rainfall was 6.54 inches at Afton on
July 6th.

Third
Annual Climate Adaptation Conference, January 28, 2016:

Registration
is now open for the 3rd Annual
Minnesota Climate Adaptation Conference on January 28, 2016 at the Hilton
DoubleTree in north Minneapolis. This conference is designed for local
officials, planners, engineers, natural resource practitioners and others who
want to learn more about adaptation strategies that have worked or are being
tested in various sectors, tribal communities, energy, local foods, emergency
management, communication and water resources. At the conference we will
also hear from several major corporations about how they are addressing climate
adaptation and listen to a mayors panel at lunch where they will discuss city
approaches to climate adaptation.

For the second year, Climate Adaptation Awards will be presented to recognize
achievements in leadership, education, research, policies, or practices that
improve resilience and advance climate adaptation in Minnesota.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The
Minnesota DNR-State Climatology Office posted the top 5 weather Events of 2015
on their web site this week. The warmest autumn statewide was rated the
top event. Thanks
to a wetter than normal month of December, combined with persistent heavy rains
last week, NOAA hydrologists and meteorologists were issuing flood forecasts
for many rivers throughout the USA, and especially the Mississippi River.
Flood crests were expected on 400 rivers, with perhaps an all-time record flood
crest on the Mississippi River near St Louis.

The
United Kingdom Met Office reported that Storm Frank brought 70-80 mph wind
gusts and rainfall of 2-3 inches to many parts of Ireland, Scotland and
northern England on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

In
addition the UK Met Office reported that this "December was the Warmest in History", averaging 4.1C above normal across the country. It was also the
wettest December in history for Scotland and Wales, averaging well over 6
inches of precipitation.

The
Oklahoma State Climatology Office reported this week that one of their
Cooperative Observers located at Daisy (Atoka County) has reported a new
statewide record annual precipitation of 89.69 inches, a phenomenal amount for
that region of the country. Several other observers across Oklahoma and
Texas report annual precipitation over 80 inches during 2015 as well.
These numbers are equivalent to two years' worth of precipitation in most cases.

Tropical
Cyclone Ula was churning in the Souther Pacific Ocean, southeast of Pago
Pago. It was expected to strengthen, producing winds up to 90 mph and sea
waves of 25 to 30 feet. This storm will primarily remain out to sea and
not affect any major islands in the area before dissipating early next week.

MPR Listener Question:

You
commented in Minnesota WeatherTalk about the extremely unusual temperatures on
October 11th of this year at Browns Valley and Sabin with 96F and 97F
respectively, well above the previous state record for that date. How
many standard deviations are those values greater than the mean daily maximum
temperature for that date?

Answer:

Statistically this is rare territory.
The maximum temperature values at Browns Valley and Sabin on October 11th were
about 3 to 3.5 times the standard deviation. That is roughly the
equivalent of a maximum temperature reading of 69F or 70F on January 1st.
Remarkable.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 1st:

The
average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 13
degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or
minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

Average dew point for January 1st is 8 degrees F, with a maximum of 36 degrees
F in 1950 and a minimum of -38 degrees F in 1974.

All-time state records for January 1st:

The
state record high temperature for this date is 56 degrees F at Luverne (Rock
County) in 1998. The state record low temperature for this date is -46
degrees F at St Vincent (Kittson County) in 1885. State record
precipitation for this date is 1.75 inches at Elk River (Sherburne County) in
2007; and record snowfall is 18.0 inches at Ada (Norman County) in 1921.

Past Weather Features:

Frigid
temperatures prevailed across the state on New Year's Day 1885, with -46F at St
Vincent (Kittson County), -35F at Moorhead, and -19F at Duluth.

Another frigid start to the New Year in 1899 with morning temperatures of -44F
at Pokegama Dam and -40F at Detroit Lakes. The afternoon temperature rose
no higher than -11F at Brainerd.

The most frigid start to the New Year in modern times was in 1974 when at least
a dozen Minnesota communities started the year with a temperature of -40F or
colder. It was -30F as far south as Zumbrota, and -35F at
Pipestone. Temperatures remained below zero all day at most locations in
the state.

The New Year started unusually warm in 1897 with widespread afternoon
temperatures in the 40s F. Many communities in southern Minnesota saw the
thermometer climb into the 50s F, with an absence of snow cover. It was
as warm as 52F as far north as Grand Marais.

A major winter storm crossed the state over New Year's Day in 1911 bringing several
inches of snowfall to central and southern portions of the state. Some
observers in southern counties reported over a foot of new snow.

A respite from winter occurred on New Year's Day in 1998 as many observers in
central and southern Minnesota saw afternoon temperatures climb into the 40s
and 50s F. It was 56F at Luverne, MN where some local residents enjoyed
their lunch outside in the sunshine.

Outlook:

Generally
a sunny weekend coming up with temperatures near normal or slightly warmer than
normal in most places. Continued much the same next week, and generally
dry as well with an increasing chance of precipitation towards the end of next
week.