000
FXUS63 KEAX 070858
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
258 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 258 AM CST WED DEC 7 2016
Mid-level clouds around 10kft have begun to filter into the area
producing light returns on the radar this morning. However, a very
dry sub cloud layer will limit anything that is falling as virga. As
we move through the morning hours though, top-down saturation will
occur eventually becoming moist enough for snow to reach the
surface. However, a lack of moisture and weak lift will keep any
accumulations minor. These minor accumulations will be observed
south of a MCI to Boonville line where a tenth of an inch to just
short of an inch is expected with the southern CWA seeing the heavier
amounts. This system will be a quick hitter with snow developing as
early as late morning and exiting the area by late this evening.
Expect strong cold air advection in the wake of this system ushering
in the coldest temperatures of the season tonight. Expect lows
tonight in the low to mid teens. Strong cold advection will continue
into Thursday keeping temperatures cold with highs in the low to mid
20s. Factoring in the wind chill values, temperatures will feel like
the single digits tonight and the teens on Thursday. Thursday night
the wind will subside as high pressure begins to build into the
region. This will make for very good radiational cooling and
consequently temperatures will drop into the upper single digits and
lower teens. Surface high pressure then remains over the area Friday
keeping highs in the mid 20s to near 30.
Warm air advection will get underway Friday night and Saturday
allowing for a more seasonal day on Saturday with highs in the mid
30s to lower 40s. This will be short-lived however, as a cold front
will move through the area Saturday night bringing the chance for
rain changing over to snow. Very minor snow accumulations may be
expected by Sunday. Highs Sunday and Monday will range in the upper
20s to the north to upper 30s south. Models then depict another
quick moving system moving through the area on Tuesday which may
again produce light snow and bring another round of cold
temperatures to the area.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2016
VFR conds to prevail thru the period with a slight chance of light
snow at MCI, MKC, and IXD tomorrow between 17Z-21Z. Mid-lvl clouds
around 10kft are expected to move into the terminals right at the
beginning of the valid TAF period. Cigs will gradually sink thru
about 14Z to around 5kft. By 17Z...cigs may drop to around 3500ft
with the slight chance of light snow however no restrictions are
expected. Cigs around 3500ft will sct out around 21Z as the window
for light snow comes to an end however an ovc mid-lvl deck around
10kft will persist. Winds during the TAF pd will remain out of the
NNW-N btn 5-10kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...73
Aviation...73