Missouri's US Senate race will likely see a crowded GOP primary

As U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler considers whether to enter the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in 2018, other prominent Republicans are weighing their chances in the Fourth Congressional District.

Hartzler, R-Harrisonville, is being asked to run against U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, a Democrat who will be seeking re-election in a state President Donald Trump won by 19 percent. Hartzler is an attractive candidate for the GOP because she outpolled Trump in her district and originally won the seat in 2010 by defeating veteran Democratic U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton.

“If the Congresswoman would want to do this I think it is fantastic,” said Carla Young, chairwoman of the Republican Fourth District Committee. “She is absolutely wonderful representing us in D.C. I think it would be a great move.”

Political consultant Nathan Adams, who has managed Hartzler’s re-election campaigns, said she is undecided about challenging McCaskill.

“She hasn’t closed the door,” Adams said. “That is probably where we are at this point.”

Asked if she has a timeline for deciding, Adams said she did not.

The Fourth Congressional District covers 24 counties including Boone, Audrain, Cooper, Howard, Moniteau and Randolph counties in Central Missouri. It includes all or part of six state Senate districts, all represented by Republicans, and 29 state House districts, all but two represented by Republicans.

Hartzler won 68 percent of the vote in 2016. It will be an attractive primary for ambitious Republicans because it will be an extremely difficult district for a Democrat to win, said Jonathan Ratliff, a political consultant who has managed several successful Missouri House races in central Missouri.

Columbia businesswoman Renee Hoagenson is already running against Hartzler and the first look at how well she is doing will come when fundraising reports are filed later this month.

“I never say anything is impossible,” Ratliff said. “I made a career at the House Republican Campaign Committee winning campaigns that no one else thought was possible, but I do think it would take an extremely weak Republican and a very strong Democrat.”

Republicans who would likely look hard at a Congressional race include state Sens. Caleb Rowden, R-Columbia, Ed Emery, R-Lamar, and Denny Hoskins, R-Warrensburg, Ratliff said. He also thinks the race will draw unexpected candidates.

In 2010, U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., gave up his Seventh Congressional District seat to run for Senate. The primary drew several experienced politicians and one newcomer, Ratliff said.

“The next thing you know Billy Long comes out of nowhere and he’s been the congressman for several years,” he said.

Boone County, the most populous county in the Fourth District, was represented in Congress by Republican Kenny Hulshof from 1997 to 2009. A strong candidate from Boone County would have a big advantage, Ratliff said.

“Columbia has been longing to have their congressman back,” he said.

Speculation about the GOP Senate primary has focused on the plans of Attorney General Josh Hawley, who is backed by prominent St. Louis businessman and Republican fundraiser Sam Fox and former U.S. Sen. Jack Danforth. It intensified after U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Ballwin, announced she would not run against McCaskill.

Along with Hawley and Hartzler, potential candidates include state treasurer Eric Schmitt and St. Louis attorney David Wasinger, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported.

State Rep. Paul Curtman, R-Pacific, and Tony Monetti, an assistant dean at the University of Central Missouri, have already begun campaigns, the Post-Dispatch reported. Austin Petersen, a former Libertarian presidential candidate, announced Tuesday his intent to run as a Republican.

Hawley, who took office in January, easily defeated state Sen. Kurt Schaefer of Columbia in a 2016 primary. But Hawley could face charges of hypocrisy if he runs because an ad in that race jabbed at Schaefer’s ambition, criticizing politicians who use their current office to seek a better one.

Hartzler has attracted attention recently for offering an amendment to block a new military policy allowing transgender people to enlist in the armed forces. She offered, then withdrew, the amendment during work on the National Defense Authorization Act, and the Defense Department responded by putting a six-month delay on the new policy, which was set to begin last Saturday.

During an interview with the Family Research Council, a conservative social policy group, Hartzler said the policy was too expensive and creates readiness and privacy issues in the armed forces.

“At a time when we should be focusing on the threats from North Korea, and Putin, and ISIS, we’re having to deal with a threat here at home — a domestic threat — of allowing transgenders in our service, which is a real problem because it impacts their readiness, and it’s a huge cost for our military,” Hartzler said.

Hartzler’s stance on transgender military service wouldn’t hurt her chances in a Republican primary, Young said.

“I don’t see why it should hurt her; some people were offended and for others it is a wash,” she said.

If Hartzler runs for the Senate, the Fourth District will draw a large crowd of hopefuls who will talk about running but only a few will actually enter the race, Young said.

“I am sure we will start out with 10 or 12, as you well know this is how it begins,” she said. “It will be weeded down to just a couple.”

rjkeller@columbiatribune.com

573-815-1709

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