Tag: sentiment

However, consumer sentiment plummeted from December’s reading of 98.3 percent in December to 90.7 in January, of 98.3 percent, the lowest reading in more than two years and the biggest drop since September, 2015. “This report on consumer sentiment is the first concrete evidence that the economy is going to fall and fall hard if Washington does not end the shutdown. Hogan, the National Securities strategist, said the weaker earnings growth for 2019 is not really the issue many investors fear it c

Keon said the market is not signaling a recession although in the heat of December’s downdraft, many strategists said the market was reflecting that fear.

“It’s way too early to say this is the beginning of a recession. the data has been mixed. Industrial production was good,” he said.

However, consumer sentiment plummeted from December’s reading of 98.3 percent in December to 90.7 in January, of 98.3 percent, the lowest reading in more than two years and the biggest drop since September, 2015.

“This report on consumer sentiment is the first concrete evidence that the economy is going to fall and fall hard if Washington does not end the shutdown. It is going to be hard to see real GDP growth of more than 1 to 1-1/2 percent in the first quarter if the consumer goes on a buying strike,” wrote Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG.

Keon said he’s positive on the market, but also expects corporate earnings will not grow at all, as earnings estimates continue to decline.

“Once you see that pattern, it usually means you’re going to see estimates continue and this year will be close to zero and has a 50/50 chance of being negative,” he said. “At some point, you’ll look forward to 2020, but with slowing growth and weak earnings that means the upside is reasonably limited … I just don’t think we should expect the really strong start we had to the year means we’re going to have a 20 percent year. That seems very unlikely.”

Hogan, the National Securities strategist, said the weaker earnings growth for 2019 is not really the issue many investors fear it could be because earnings in 2018 received a giant boost from tax law changes.

“The problem with earnings growth is you have to compare it to the year before. Last year was a blockbuster year because you had major tax cuts,” he said. “There were all sorts of things that artificially inflated earnings last year that made the comparison difficult. I’m not much concerned. If we have five to 10 percent earnings growth, considering how much earnings grew last year, I would thank that’s spectacular.”

The S&P 500 has successfully pushed through a level strategists expected to act as a level of resistance, at just above 2,600.

“2,600 had been the lower end of the range for all of 2018. When we dipped below that at the end of the year, significant technical damage was done. We were concerned that would become a ceiling for a period of time but we cut through it on pretty good volume,” Hogan said.

Consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since before the U.S. presidential election in 2016 amid growing concerns over U.S. economic growth, according to data released Friday. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 90.7 this month — its lowest since October 2016 — from 98.3 in December, preliminary data showed. Economists polled by Refinitiv expected the index to fall to 96.4. “Aside from the direct economic impact from these various issues on the economy, the indirec

Consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since before the U.S. presidential election in 2016 amid growing concerns over U.S. economic growth, according to data released Friday.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 90.7 this month — its lowest since October 2016 — from 98.3 in December, preliminary data showed. Economists polled by Refinitiv expected the index to fall to 96.4.

“The loss was due to a host of issues including the partial government shutdown, the impact of tariffs, instabilities in financial markets, the global slowdown, and the lack of clarity about monetary policies,” said Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers. “Aside from the direct economic impact from these various issues on the economy, the indirect effect meant that half of all consumers believed that these events would have a negative impact on Trump’s ability to focus on economic growth.”

Curtin also said the survey showed the year-ahead economic outlook was the worst since mid-2014.

The downturn in mortgage interest rates that began in November finally has homebuilders feeling better. Builder sentiment rose 2 points to 58 in January on a monthly index from the National Association of Home Builders. This came after two months of sharp drops in sentiment to the lowest level in more than two years. “The gradual decline in mortgage rates in recent weeks helped to sustain builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. The CEOs of KB Home and Lennar indicated that high prices

The downturn in mortgage interest rates that began in November finally has homebuilders feeling better.

Builder sentiment rose 2 points to 58 in January on a monthly index from the National Association of Home Builders. This came after two months of sharp drops in sentiment to the lowest level in more than two years. The index stood at 72 last January. Anything above 50 is considered positive.

Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions rose 2 points to 63. Sales expectations over the next six months increased 3 points to 64 and buyer traffic through new home models rose 1 point to 44. Buyer traffic is the only component in negative territory.

Some of the nation’s largest public homebuilders reported weak quarterly earnings last week, indicating a slowdown in sales. The CEOs of KB Home and Lennar indicated that high prices had sidelined buyers, especially as mortgage rates rose in the early fall. Now that rates are lower, builders could see renewed demand.

Builders, however, are not lowering prices significantly. There remains a tight supply of homes for sale at the entry level because builders are unable to profit as much on lower-priced homes.

“Builders need to continue to manage rising construction costs to keep home prices affordable, particularly for young buyers at the entry-level of the market,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “Lower interest rates that peaked around 5 percent in mid-November and have since fallen to just below 4.5 percent will help the housing market continue to grow at a modest clip as we enter the new year.”

Regionally, on a three-month running average, sentiment in the Northeast fell 5 points to 45. Sentiment in the Midwest and South both fell 3 points to 52 and 62, respectively, The West saw a 1-point drop to 67.

Monthly housing starts and builder permits will not be released Thursday, due to the partial government shutdown. The NAHB estimates that the December government data would show that single-family starts ended the year totaling 876,000 units, a 3 percent gain over the 2017 total of 848,900. The association noted that the slowdown in sales during the fourth quarter has left new home inventories elevated in some markets.

Asia stocks mostly gained Friday amid improved investor sentiment following overnight gains on Wall Street. The mainland Chinese markets, watched in relation to the ongoing trade war between Beijing and Washington, were higher on the day. The moves followed after officials from Washington and Beijing met for trade talks earlier this week — details about the progress were sparse. U.S. and China have halted an ongoing trade war to try and resolve sticking issues on a number of areas. “There are so

The mainland Chinese markets, watched in relation to the ongoing trade war between Beijing and Washington, were higher on the day. The Shanghai composite was up about 0.74 percent to close around 2,553.83 while the Shenzhen composite gained 0.758 percent to about 1,313.36. The Shenzhen component also rose 0.611 percent to close around 7,474.01.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained about 0.5 percent, as of its final hour of trade.

The moves followed after officials from Washington and Beijing met for trade talks earlier this week — details about the progress were sparse. U.S. and China have halted an ongoing trade war to try and resolve sticking issues on a number of areas. Analysts who spoke to CNBC on Friday were divided whether a deal between the two economic powerhouses would be forthcoming.

“I think (U.S. President Donald) Trump wants to have a win and (Chinese leader) Xi Jinping desperately needs to have a win. So, I think they’re gonna come to some agreement … probably in the first quarter,” Andrew Collier, managing director at Orient Capital Research, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Friday.

Collier said, however, trade frictions between Washington and Beijing are unlikely to end as “China clearly … is a threat to the United States and plus it has done many things that many countries disagree with.”

Others did not agree.

“There are some that would argue that the Trump administration needs a deal, given that they’re walking into an election cycle in 2020 … I would respectfully disagree,” James Sullivan, head of equity research ex-Japan at J.P. Morgan, said. “What the Trump administration needs to do is incite his base. A deal, by definition, means compromise. Compromise doesn’t incite.”

Gold prices fell on Tuesday as risk appetite improved on bets China and the United States may be closing on a trade deal, and as the dollar bounced off a 2-1/2-month low hit in the previous session. Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,282.70, as of 0516 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were 0.5 percent lower at $1,283.50 per ounce. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Gold prices have gained about 11 percent since hitting a more than 1-1/2

Gold prices fell on Tuesday as risk appetite improved on bets China and the United States may be closing on a trade deal, and as the dollar bounced off a 2-1/2-month low hit in the previous session.

Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,282.70, as of 0516 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were 0.5 percent lower at $1,283.50 per ounce.

“Because of improved investor sentiment, gold is coming off its highs and may have to stay around the current levels,” said Mark To, head of research at Wing Fung Precious Metals in Hong Kong.

“The market has been troubled by uncertainties around trade war and interest rate hikes. However, now most of the stake holders, including the authorities in U.S., China and Fed, are trying to cooperate and put up a positive tone and create a stable environment for investors.”

Most Asian shares were propped up on Tuesday by hopes that Washington and Beijing may be inching towards a trade deal after positive comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

“A lot of people had gone long in gold as they bet that economic growth in U.S. and China might slow down due to the trade war,” said Kunal Shah, head of research at Nirmal Bang Commodities in Mumbai.

“If there are positive outcomes (in the trade talk) there could be some profit taking (in gold).”

The dollar index was up 0.3 percent, moving away from a 2-1/2-month low hit in the previous session after U.S. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell hinted on Friday that the central bank could pause its multi-year rate-hike cycle.

Gold is declining as the dollar is showing early signs of shaking off its recent bout of Fed-induced weakness, said Stephen Innes, APAC trading head at OANDA.

A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies.

Gold prices have gained about 11 percent since hitting a more than 1-1/2-year low in mid-August due to tumultuous stock markets and a slightly weaker dollar. Bullion prices hit their highest since June 2018 at $1,298.42 on Friday.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, saw a bit of outflows on Friday. But, holdings are still at their highest since August 2018, underpinning demand for the safe-haven metal.

Palladium, meanwhile, rose 0.1 percent to $1,301 an ounce, but was still in the vicinity of the record high of $1,313.24 hit in the previous session. The metal was trading at a premium to gold.

Silver edged 0.6 percent lower to $15.55 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.8 percent to $815.50, having hit its highest in more than a month at $831.10 on Monday.

Markets from equities to high-yield bonds that have been flashing warning signs are probably an overreaction to slowing growth rather than a precursor of imminent recession, according to J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. “I think markets are overreacting to short-term sentiment around a whole bunch of complex issues,” Dimon said in a Fox Business interview released Tuesday. He quickly added that the market moves were a “rational response” to slower growth and the U.S.-China trade dispute. But o

Markets from equities to high-yield bonds that have been flashing warning signs are probably an overreaction to slowing growth rather than a precursor of imminent recession, according to J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

“I think markets are overreacting to short-term sentiment around a whole bunch of complex issues,” Dimon said in a Fox Business interview released Tuesday. He quickly added that the market moves were a “rational response” to slower growth and the U.S.-China trade dispute.

But overall, Dimon, who leads the biggest U.S. lender, said the December stock declines and the halting by banks of high-yield debt issuance last month were unwarranted. He said he’s “really not worried about” what happened to riskier corporate debt because credit spreads are returning to normal after a long period of suppression.

“My view is that the consumer is in good shape and is continuing to grow, and they have backwinds with jobs and wages going up,” Dimon said, adding that consumers were paying back credit card debts.

“I think you’re going to have decent growth in 2019 in America,” Dimon said. “Therefore sentiment might reverse course at some point in the future.”

The S&P 500 posted its worst December since the Great Depression, down nearly 9 percent. It has rebounded so far this year, up nearly 2 percent.

Several information technology stocks have been “unfairly” hammered by investors in the recent sell-off in the U.S., but those companies are key to lifting overall sentiment on Wall Street in 2019, according to online brokerage TD Ameritrade Asia. “I think tech is going to drive the overall sentiment higher,” Christopher Brankin, CEO of TD Ameritrade Asia, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “Basically all stocks over the last quarter, especially December, have been absolutely hammered and I t

Several information technology stocks have been “unfairly” hammered by investors in the recent sell-off in the U.S., but those companies are key to lifting overall sentiment on Wall Street in 2019, according to online brokerage TD Ameritrade Asia.

“Basically all stocks over the last quarter, especially December, have been absolutely hammered and I think some of them unfairly. We’ve seen some of these stocks across the FAANG, some of the semiconductors, they’re down … just in the month of December,” he added.

The dollar retained most of its overnight gains on Thursday but was off its peak for the week so far amid thin volumes, as signs of easing trade tensions and strong U.S. economic data sent Wall Street stocks and Treasury yields higher. “Trade war risk is abating somewhat..so risk-on sentiment should also be supportive of emerging market currencies,” added Innes. “If risk sentiment keeps improving and Dow futures extend their gains in the Asia session, I would expect dollar/yen to move higher sti

The dollar retained most of its overnight gains on Thursday but was off its peak for the week so far amid thin volumes, as signs of easing trade tensions and strong U.S. economic data sent Wall Street stocks and Treasury yields higher.

In a sharp bounce from bear market territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rocketed more than 1,000 points for the first time on Wednesday, while U.S. 10-year yields rallied around 8 basis points to end at 2.8 percent.

The swing higher in bond yields supported the greenback, which has been under pressure over the past couple of weeks following a decline in yields, which was driven by heightened concerns about slowing economic growth, and – more recently – a partial U.S. government shutdown.

Investors on Wednesday were quick to latch on to media reports that a U.S. trade team will travel to Beijing the week of Jan. 7 to hold talks with Chinese officials.

Markets also lapped up data showing U.S. 2018 holiday sales rose 5.1 percent from a year ago to over $850 billion, the strongest gain in six years.

“Investors are coming back to the U.S. markets after a build-up of lot of fearmongering..this would be supportive of the dollar as well as treasury yields and stocks,” said Stephen Innes, head of Asian trading at Oanda.

“Trade war risk is abating somewhat..so risk-on sentiment should also be supportive of emerging market currencies,” added Innes.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, slipped 0.16 percent in the afternoon of Asian trade, after gaining 0.5 percent on Wednesday.

The U.S. currency lost about 0.21 percent versus the yen, fetching 111.12 at 0622 GMT after bouncing 1 percent overnight and breaking a safe-haven driven 8-day stretch of gains for the Japanese currency.

“If risk sentiment keeps improving and Dow futures extend their gains in the Asia session, I would expect dollar/yen to move higher still,” Innes said, though he warned that it was too early call a turn in risk sentiment.

Another factor lifting market sentiment was easing tensions between the White House and the U.S. central bank. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s job was “100 percent” safe.

Last week, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the fourth time this year, and largely kept to its plans to hike rates next year despite heightened economic risks which prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to step up his criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Trump blasted the Fed on Monday, describing it as the “only problem” for the U.S. economy and stoked speculation he might fire Mr. Powell, whom he picked for the top Fed job last year.

The euro fetched $1.1382, strengthening around 0.27 percent. The single currency is set to end the year lower by 5 percent as weak economic fundamentals in Europe, political tensions in France and Italy and a dovish European Central Bank had made investors favor the dollar over the euro in 2018.

Sterling, which has been battered by Brexit woes in recent months, was firmer at $1.2654, having lost 0.4 percent the previous session.

The Australian dollar, often considered a gauge of global risk appetite, was at $0.7049, off its intra-day high.

Some stocks have been ‘unfairly’ hammered: TD Ameritrade Asia7 Hours AgoChristopher Brankin, CEO of TD Ameritrade Asia, says the technology sector is going to drive the overall market sentiment “higher” in the U.S.