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Thursday, May 21, 2009

Stat of the Day: Disappointing Jobs Data

The weekly jobless claims continue to hang in the low 600K range, but the hoped for break into the 500s has to wait a while longer. A break below 600K in weekly claims would finally signal a serious change in direction. For now, the jobless numbers have definitely bottomed out, but its just bottoming along at the bottom. The numbers did peak at 670K in March so it's definitely dropped from the highs, but after such a huge run in the stock market we really needed that big drop to convince the market that the turn is for real. For now, this just gives the shorts more fuel to hang tough.

The U.S. Labor Department on Thursday said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 631,000 in the week ended May 16, compared to a high of 674,000 in late March.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast new claims at 630,000.

Still, continuing claims—workers who remain on the rolls of the unemployed -- rose by 75,000 to a record 6.662 million in the week ended May 9. The most severe U.S. recession in decades has already claimed over 5 million jobs since it began in December 2007.

"We need a more convincing decline (in new claims) to signal from the jobless claims perspective that the recession has bottomed out," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

Employment is often seen as a lagging indicator, and many companies are likely to wait for sustained evidence of an economic revival before hoisting help-wanted signs.

In that vein, the Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday that the economy will likely start growing again in the second half of 2009, but that the jobless rate could peak at more than 10 percent against the current 8.9 percent.

"The companies that bring their costs under control will be the first to start hiring, but I don't think we'll see that a lot until the third or fourth quarter," said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist at Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto.