12.4.2.2 Vertical patterns

As noted in Section 12.3.2, increases in greenhouse
gases produce a distinctive change in the vertical profile of temperature. Santer
et al. (1996c) assessed the significance of the observed changes in recent decades
using equilibrium GCM simulations with changes in greenhouse gases, sulphate
aerosols and strato-spheric ozone. This study has been extended to include results
from the transient AOGCM simulations, additional sensitivity studies and estimates
of internal variability from three different models (Santer et al., 1996a).
Results from this study are consistent with the earlier results – the 25-year
trend from 1963 to 1988 in the centred correlation statistic between the observed
and simulated patterns for the full atmosphere was significantly different from
the population of 25-year trends in the control simulations. The results were
robust even if the estimates of noise levels were almost doubled, or the aerosol
response (assumed linear and additive) was halved. The aerosol forcing leads
to a smaller warming in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere.

Tett et al. (1996) refined Santer et al.’s (1996a) study by using ensembles
of transient simulations which included increases in CO2, and sulphate
aerosols, and reductions in stratospheric ozone, as well as using an extended
record of observations (see Figure 12.8). They
found that the best and most significant agreement with observations was found
when all three factors were included1.
Allen and Tett (1999) find that the effect of greenhouse gases can be detected
with these signal patterns using optimal detection (see Appendix
12.1).

Folland et al. (1998) and Sexton et al. (2001) take a complementary approach
using an atmospheric model forced with sea surface temperatures (SST) and ice
extents prescribed from observations. The correlation between the observed and
simulated temperature changes in the vertical relative to the base period from
1961 to 1975 was computed. The experiments with anthropogenic forcing (including
some with tropospheric ozone changes), give significantly higher correlations
than when only SST changes are included.

Interpretation of results
Weber (1996) and Michaels and Knappenburger (1996) both criticised the Santer
et al. (1996a) results, quoting upper air measurements analysed by Angell (1994).
Weber argued that the increasing pattern similarity over the full atmosphere
(850 to 50 hPa) resulted mainly from a Southern Hemisphere cooling associated
with stratospheric ozone depletion. Santer et al. (1996b) pointed out that when
known biases in the radiosonde data are removed (e.g., Parker et al., 1997),
or satellite or operationally analysed data are used, the greater stratospheric
cooling in the Southern Hemisphere all but disappears. Weber (1996) is correct
that stratospheric cooling due to ozone will contribute to the pattern similarity
over the full atmosphere, but decreases in stratospheric ozone alone would be
expected to produce a tropospheric cooling, not a warming as observed. This
point should be born in mind when considering a later criticism of the pattern
correlation approach. Both Weber (1996) and Michaels and Knappenburger (1996)
note that the greater warming of the Southern Hemisphere relative to the Northern
Hemisphere from 1963 to 1988 has since reversed. They attribute the Southern
Hemisphere warming from 1963 to the recovery from the cooling following the
eruption of Mount Agung. Santer et al. (1996b) claim that this change in asymmetry
is to be expected, because the heating due to increases in greenhouse gases
over the most recent years has probably been growing faster than the estimated
cooling due to increases in aerosols (see Section 12.2.3.3).
Calculations of the difference in the rate of warming between the Northern and
Southern Hemispheres vary between different climate models and as a function
of time, depending on the relative forcing due to greenhouse gases and sulphate
aerosols, and on the simulated rate of oceanic heat uptake in the Southern Hemisphere
(Santer et al., 1996b; Karoly and Braganza, 2001).

Assessing statistical significance of changes in the vertical patterns of
temperature
There are some difficulties in assessing the statistical significance in detection
studies based on changes in the vertical temperature profile. First, the observational
record is short, and subject to error, particularly at upper levels (Chapter
2). Second, the model estimates of variability may not be realistic (Section
12.2.2), particularly in the stratosphere. Third, because of data and model
limitations, the number of levels used to represent the stratosphere in detection
studies to date is small, and hence may not be adequate to allow an accurate
representation of the stratospheric response. Fourth, all models produce a maximum
warming in the upper tropical troposphere that is not apparent in the observations
and whose impact on detection results is difficult to quantify. Nevertheless,
all the studies indicate that anthropogenic factors account for a significant
part of recent observed changes, whereas internal and naturally forced variations
alone, at least as simulated by current models, cannot explain the observed
changes. In addition, there are physical arguments for attributing the changes
in the vertical profile of temperature to anthropogenic influence (Section
12.3.2).