Re: Solar flare information

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Pawnfart

B1, Thanks. If you have a chance, check out these two links:

Message 1 of 702
, Aug 15, 2001

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B1,<br><br>Thanks.<br><br><br>If you have a
chance, check out these two
links:<br><br><a href=http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.2.2001.gif target=new>http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.2.2001.gif</a><br><br><a href=http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.19.2001.gif target=new>http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.19.2001.gif</a><br><br>Pay particular attention to the El Nino waters off
the coast of Peru. The flaring event you describe in
April must be considered in light of the proximaty of
the earth to the sun--in the winter it is closest and
with its elliptical path in April the earth is really
starting to move away from the sun, and seasonal winds
that would decrease cirrus from flaring are starting
to kick in, as the Equatorial is a counter
wind/current and moving EAST. But one can CLEARLY see a warm
anomaly forming from the flaring (see
<a href=http://www.ssiatty.com/climate/flaring.html target=new>http://www.ssiatty.com/climate/flaring.html</a> ). They one can see the lack of flaring later in
May. That warm anomaly then moved, as you can see,
northwest to the west of Central America. It was then, in
May, AFTER the flaring, we had our only May CAT 4 East
Pac cane in recorded history. Flaring is bad on canes
because you have cirrus enhancement not connected to
ocean SSTs and current direction, so that it is
difficult to have ambiant wind connections form where all
levels of the atmosphere are favorable. But what
happened there is a very warm anomaly massed during the
flaring and then the flaring ended and that warm anomaly
moved WEST, were it was both warm and inducting
west.<br><br>Question. That data you presented. How much of it is
particle information of protons or electrons moving in the
solar winds? What comprises the flaring. My theory is
simply that the flaring causes both a greater ionosphere
AND greater movement of the ionosphere, which in turn
creates upward electrical vectors that enhance cirrus.
<br><br>BTW, I wonder if that Cape Verde depression is going
to be the Alberto II I forecasted in April. If you
go to my link
<a href=http://www.ssiatty.com/climate/2001hurricane.html target=new>http://www.ssiatty.com/climate/2001hurricane.html</a> you can see my prediction for it. Since then the
prediction is the same but the rationale has varied. It
isn't just the dams along the Great Lakes but the fact
that the Great Lakes are themselves low, ultimately
from the China dams situation. Africa dams are not
starting to kick in delayed sed and flows and you can see
from the recent anomalies off the coast of Africa how
this is so, combined with the persistant cool
anomalies off the US east coast--spells Alberto II.

b1blancer_29501

On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,

Message 702 of 702
, Mar 1 9:47 PM

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On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
<a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
are close to rotating out of view over the western
limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
:<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
possible source for isolated M-class
flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
the onset of high speed stream effects from a
recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
activity :<br>None

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