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Monday, 30 September 2013

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So
far in the run-up to Korea, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in
the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I move on to the Top Six betting market.

As usual I've compiled two form
guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the
second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6 Finish

Profit*

Winning Bet

Nico Hulkenberg

14.00

1

Felipe Massa

0.97

3

Fernando Alonso

0.80

6

Sebastian Vettel

0.45

5

Nico Rosberg

0.40

4

Jenson Button

-0.10

2

Lewis Hamilton

-0.15

5

Mark Webber

-0.53

4

Kimi Raikkonen

-0.76

4

Romain Grosjean

-1.63

2

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To
be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on
the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied
the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Nico Hulkenberg tops the chart thanks to his fifth place finish at Monza when he was available at 20/1, but if you're looking for a safe bet then Fernando Alonso has been the stand out choice, having achieved a Top Six finish at every Grand Prix since Canada.

The second chart shows the figures for the entire season...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Entire Season):

Top 6 Finish

Profit*

Winning Bet

Nico Hulkenberg

8.00

1

Jean-Eric Vergne

4.00

1

Lewis Hamilton

2.21

11

Sebastian Vettel

1.72

12

Felipe Massa

0.61

7

Mark Webber

0.56

9

Nico Rosberg

0.12

8

Fernando Alonso

-0.56

10

Jenson Button

-0.82

4

Kimi Raikkonen

-2.06

8

Romain Grosjean

-2.71

4

Sergio Perez

-8.00

1

Paul di Resta

-9.25

1

Adrian Sutil

-10.25

1

Rest Of The Field

-13.00

0

* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

That's the Top Six statistics covered and tomorrow I'll be looking at the form
guide for Top Ten Finish betting.