Hard to write off Assange's chances in upper house

The WikiLeaks chief has expressed an interest in an active role in politics, writes Philip Dorling.

WikiLeaks publisher Julian Assange remains holed up in the Ecuadorean embassy in London.

By any assessment his circumstances are quite extraordinary. He's been granted diplomatic asylum on the grounds that he is at risk of extradition to the US to face conspiracy or other charges arising from WikiLeaks obtaining thousands of secret US military and diplomatic reports leaked by US Army private Bradley Manning.

But Assange can't leave the embassy. British police are waiting to arrest him so he can be extradited to Sweden to face questioning about allegations of sexual assault. He remains convinced that extradition to Sweden would facilitate his eventual extradition to the US.

So Assange has been cooped up in the embassy for six months. It's a Mexican, or rather an Ecuadorean, stand off.

When interviewed by Fairfax Media this week, Assange was nonchalant about his circumstances, saying ''one gets used to things'' and it was ''certainly preferable to solitary confinement in Sweden or the United States''. But he still clearly finds his circumstances oppressive. He acknowledged he had to take ''great precaution and diligence'' in preserving the confidentiality of his work.

It is a situation that is very different from the optimistic atmosphere in which he emailed me from Stockholm on August 22, 2010, the day after the Australian federal election.

Australian politics was hanging in the balance. Julia Gillard's Labor government had suffered a 5 per cent swing in the primary vote and was losing 11 seats, but Tony Abbott's Coalition looked like it would fall short of a parliamentary majority. Both sides were contemplating negotiations with independents who would determine who would lead the new Parliament.

In this context, Assange's email read: ''I'm not sure how this can be conveyed, gently, but we are sitting on documents of significant moment pertaining to the activities of Labor leaders, their cronies and their security staff; behaviour that would be perceived by the public to be close to, or actually, treasonous. We would like to hear clear signals about why we should or should not, release these now. Which government will protect the free press and whistle-blowers more?''

In the previous month WikiLeaks had attracted huge international attention as it published tens of thousands of secret US military reports. During the Australian election campaign both Labor and the Coalition attacked WikiLeaks as ''grossly irresponsible''.

Assange's email suggested he might drop a bombshell. He was keen to be a player in Australian politics and advancing his campaign against official secrecy and for increased government transparency.

But he decided not to immediately release some 1400 secret US embassy reports on Australian politics and foreign policy.

Instead, they were published by Fairfax Media in early December 2010, some seven weeks after Gillard had negotiated the parliamentary majority that keeps her government in office.

It's an interesting historical ''what if'' to consider what might have been had WikiLeaks released the US embassy cables during the 2010 election campaign or the negotiations that followed the poll.

The US embassy's secret reports included acutely embarrassing revelations about Gillard's long-standing ambitions for the Labor leadership, including the beginnings of the factional campaign that removed Kevin Rudd from The Lodge, trenchant criticisms of Rudd's performance in both foreign and domestic policy, and the disclosure of the role of then minister and senator Mark Arbib and numerous other Labor MPs as confidential, ''protected'' informants for the US embassy. None of this would have helped Labor.

Two years on, Assange is still keenly interested in politics. Many would argue that the WikiLeaks publisher is in no position to contemplate running for public office. In Canberra senior government figures are dismissive of WikiLeaks, saying the transparency group is ''broken'' and ''effectively moribund'', and Assange has no alternative but to eventually surrender himself and be put on a plane to Stockholm. The Foreign Affairs Minister, Bob Carr, publicly insists that Assange is entitled to the same ''consular assistance'' available to other Australians in legal difficulties overseas. Privately, however, at least two senior federal Labor ministers have bluntly dismissed Assange as ''an alleged rapist trying to avoid justice''.

Interviewed this week, Assange advanced a much more positive assessment of his circumstances, dismissing critics including Carr as being ''self-interested apologists for the US'' and arguing that WikiLeaks and his own ''trajectory over the past four months has been increasingly positive''.

WikiLeaks continues to publish confidential material, with more than a million emails and documents in the course of this year including disclosures from the private intelligence firm Stratfor and confidential Syrian government emails, he says.

He also argues that considerable resources have been devoted and progress made in working around the financial embargo imposed on WikiLeaks by major credit card and money transfer corporations.

Plans to form and register an Australian WikiLeaks party are now ''significantly advanced'', he says. He has confirmed he intends to be a candidate for the Senate and that ''a number of very worthy people admired by the Australian public'' have indicated their availability to stand for the party.

Assange hasn't yet registered to vote but believes he is able to fulfil the requirements to register in either NSW or Victoria as an overseas elector.

Arguably some campaign infrastructure is in place.

WikiLeaks' internet presence includes a Twitter account with nearly 1.7 million followers worldwide and a Facebook page with more than 2.1 million ''likes''. The formation of ''Friends of WikiLeaks'' groups over the past year may also provide channels to engage and mobilise Australian supporters.

Assange says he's ''quite encouraged'' by published polls through the past two years that show significant support for WikiLeaks. He also talks positively about the increasing role of pro-WikiLeaks activists.

Opinion polls by UMR Research, the company the Labor Party uses for its internal polling, in May and August this year suggest Assange could be a competitive Senate candidate.

He would most likely be in direct competition with the Australian Greens for the last of six seats up for grabs in either NSW or Victoria in a half-Senate election. His opponents may be Greens Senate candidates Cate Faehrmann in NSW or Janet Rice in Victoria.

Former SBS journalist Mary Kostakidis, a strong WikiLeaks supporter not directly involved in preparations to form the new party, reckons Assange could contribute a lot to debate in a federal election campaign.

''A Senate campaign could highlight the issues - after all, scrutiny, transparency and accountability are the remit of the Senate,'' she told Fairfax Media this week. ''I think he would have widespread support in the cyber community, which is not just populated by the young. He has a forensic mind, is driven by a passion for truth and justice and attracts people around him who are similarly motivated. He is resourceful and resilient. He doesn't lack perseverance.''

That said, there will also be a close focus on whoever is selected as the No.2 WikiLeaks candidate on a Senate ticket as that person would presumably be the most likely nominee if Assange did secure a Senate quota but was unable to take his seat.

The other potential wild card is whether Assange and WikiLeaks are able to publish any new revelations that would affect the election campaign.

Assange says he anticipates more confidential material next year. He may well be keeping some powder dry for the electoral contest ahead and may yet deliver another bombshell.

Most political commentators will no doubt dismiss Assange's Senate campaign as another quixotic stunt by a figure on the margins of Australian politics.

But it may just be the case that he will have a significant impact on the future make-up of the Senate. Whatever one thinks of WikiLeaks and its controversial chief editor, Julian Assange continues to surprise.

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