Dem hopes for Speaker Pelosi sadly fading

posted at 12:41 pm on June 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

So says The Hill, which reads the tea leaves and oddly discerns no sweeping Democratic mandate developing thus far in the election season. Democrats would need a near-historic set of coattails from Barack Obama in order to pull off the 25-seat net victory to regain control of the House, but Obama can’t even get to 50% approval for himself, let alone the rest of his party:

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has given her party a better than 50-50 chance of wresting control of the lower chamber — but missed opportunities in specific races and increasing economic worries have put that prediction in doubt.

“The environment certainly isn’t as good as it was six months ago for Democrats,” a senior Democratic strategist who works on House races told The Hill, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to comment candidly.

“Democrats are way off track of where they need to be to regain the majority,” said David Wasserman, the House race editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

The Hill projects that Democrats will gain between 10-15 seats, but it’s not clear why or where. One of their rationales is that Democrats have a slight edge in some polls on the generic Congressional ballot, but Republicans only need to be close to gain seats, historically speaking. Democrats need significant margins in those polls to switch seats — and they are still defending a few formerly-Republican seats they picked up in 2006 that will still be vulnerable in the second Tea Party election.

Republicans lead Democrats by seven points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, June 17.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead. Republicans led by six points the week before, 45% to 39%, and seven points 44% to 37%, the week before that.

Republicans have consistently held a modest advantage over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot since June 2009. During 2012, support for Democrats on the generic ballot has ranged from 36% to 41%. Republicans have stayed between 40% and 46% in that same time period.

The same 7-day tracking poll shows Mitt Romney up by four over Barack Obama, so the coattails issue applies more at the moment to the GOP than Democrats. The GOP leads among men by a wide margin, 51/33, while only trailing by four among women, 39/43, on the generic Congressional ballot. Independents have not yet made up their minds, but lean towards the GOP 37/29, with 25% undecided. Democrats get 50% of the youth vote but lose every other age demo.

Remember, too, that Rasmussen’s tracking poll at the end of October 2010 gave Republicans a ten-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot, 49/39. The next week, Republicans netted 63 seats in the House. Four months earlier, at about the same time in the cycle as now, the split was 44/36, almost identical to where it is today.

Plenty could change between now and the election, of course, in either direction. Right now, though, Democrats have to be wondering whether they might be more competitive if they’d replaced their failed leadership after the 2010 midterm debacle, and hadn’t made Nancy Pelosi the poster woman for a Democratic majority.

Update: Republicans netted 63 seats, not 68. Thanks to Damian G for the correction, which I’ve made above.

The GOP leads among men by a wide margin, 51/33, while only trailing by four among women, 39/43, on the generic Congressional ballot. Independents have not yet made up their minds, but lean towards the GOP 37/29, with 25% undecided. Democrats get 50% of the youth vote but lose every other age demo.

Those are horrible numbers for the Dems. Especially with men. Maybe it’s not the best electoral strategery to treat white men like garbage.

Sadly? Really? I’ve got to think that even in the dark places where they gather Dems would not be unhappy to see this vile corrupt woman ousted from her leadership role. Certainly, there will be no chance of bipartisanship in Congress with her involvement.

In 2010 the pubs gained 63 seats and we hear nary a word about that from the state controlled media to this day. Here we are in 2012 and the dems need only a 25 seat gain to retake the house. Should be no big deal right?

The strategy pays off in the long term, as Caucasians will eventually become a minority due to inevitable demographic trends.

Archivarix on June 19, 2012 at 12:51 PM

Great, so someday down the road when Latinos supposedly supplant whites, the Dems will dominate at the ballot box. What about now when 2/3 of the electorate is white(and half of them are men)? They’re writing off a huge chunk of those voters with their policies.

Great, so someday down the road when Latinos supposedly supplant whites, the Dems will dominate at the ballot box. What about now when 2/3 of the electorate is white(and half of them are men)? They’re writing off a huge chunk of those voters with their policies.

Doughboy on June 19, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Won’t matter. The welfare state can’t be sustained by ANY conceivable means as it stands today. At some point no one will either lend the US money any more OR accept those printed dollars as being worth anything at all and the government cheese quits flowing.

Government HAS to shrink, and drastically. The irony is that it’s the Republicans who would preserve MORE of it than the democrats ultimately will by insisting we stay the course till we fall off the cliff.

Here is what Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats promised in 2006 in order to win the 2006 elections and control of Congress:

Over the past decade, the Republican controlled Congress took our nation in the wrong direction. Too many Americans are paying a heavy price for those wrong choices: record costs for energy, health care and education; jobs shipped overseas; and budgets that heap record debt on our children. For millions, the middle-class dream has been replaced by a middle-class squeeze…

Democrats are proposing a New Direction for America…

With integrity, civility and fiscal discipline, our New Direction for America will use commonsense principles to address the aspirations and fulfill the hopes and dreams of all Americans. That is our promise to the American people….

Our federal budget should be a statement of our national values. One of those values is responsibility. Democrats are committed to ending years of irresponsible budget policies that have produced historic deficits. Instead of piling trillions of dollars of debt onto our children and grandchildren, we will restore “Pay As You Go” budget discipline.

Budget discipline has been abandoned by the Bush Administration and its Republican congressional majorities. Congress under Republican control has turned a projected $5.6 trillion 10-year surplus at the end of the Clinton years into a nearly $3 trillion deficit– including the four worst deficits in the history of America. The nation’s debt ceiling has been raised four times in just five years to more than $8.9 trillion. Nearly half of our nation’s record debt is owned by foreign countries including China and Japan. Without a return to fiscal discipline, the foreign countries that make our computers, our clothing and our toys will soon be making our foreign policy. Deficit spending is not just a fiscal problem – it’s a national security issue as well.

Our New Direction is committed to “Pay As You Go” budgeting – no more deficit spending.

And here is what Nancy Pelosi promised on January 4, 2007 when she became Speaker of the House:

After years of historic deficits, this 110th Congress will commit itself to a higher standard: pay-as-you-go, no new deficit spending. Our new America will provide unlimited opportunity for future generations, not burden them with mountains of debt.

Given the “popularity” of Miss Nancy, the only way that House Democrats could hurt themselves any more by their choice of leadership would be for them to drag out the dessicated corpse of V I Lenin and elect it as their Minority Leader.

You know, I remember in the spring of 2010, how confident some liberals were that they’d be able to hold onto the house, some even predicted gains. Then as the summer went along, that confidence slowly started fading and kept doing so right upto the election.

Call me crazy, but it feels like we’re following the same pattern this time around.

The same 7-day tracking poll shows Mitt Romney up by four over Barack Obama, so the coattails issue applies more at the moment to the GOP than Democrats. The GOP leads among men by a wide margin, 51/33, while only trailing by four among women, 39/43, on the generic Congressional ballot. Independents have not yet made up their minds, but lean towards the GOP 37/29, with 25% undecided. Democrats get 50% of the youth vote but lose every other age demo.

Is it not as likely we’d pick up seats? With a Mitt win, and given the 2010 gains in number red state districts and favorable redistricting in many states, is this not achievable? Were many wins in 2010 in Dem districts?

The dems will be lucky to not lose 25 more seats. Here in MI the lost seat to reapportioning is a dem seat. The new GOP majority in Lansing merged 2 long term dems into one district when we lost a seat in the 2010 census. Most of the seats lost in the census went to red states. Also our tea party reps who won in 2010 got their seats strengthened with the redistrcting. I am sure this situation was repeated in other states.

Stretch Pelosi has a really arrogant call screener for her DC office. I originally called a few years ago to complain about her abuse of private jets on our dime and her cancelling at the last minute.

The screener cut me off and said that Denny Hastert did it. I said I didn’t care what Hastert did, I’m talking about what’s going on now.

That’s the screener MO, to cut you off and then hang up. I’ve had many battles with this clown. Amazing that some of these arrogant screeners fail to realize that we pay their salaries and that their job is to listen to our conerns and to pass it on, NOT to cut us off and argue/hang up.

Anyways it sure was a great day after Pelosi was fired as Speaker. I called up and my friend answered…. I said I’m just calling to say Good Riddance to the WOrst Speaker of All Time….. then he hung up like the baby he is!

The dems will be lucky to not lose 25 more seats. Here in MI the lost seat to reapportioning is a dem seat. The new GOP majority in Lansing merged 2 long term dems into one district when we lost a seat in the 2010 census. Most of the seats lost in the census went to red states. Also our tea party reps who won in 2010 got their seats strengthened with the redistrcting. I am sure this situation was repeated in other states.

What is going on in your state?

karenhasfreedom on June 19, 2012 at 1:16 PM

and keep in mind we have more governors now han we had in 2008, who will make sure tha fewer zombies, illegals, and outta state ‘visitors’ show up to vote..

Fading? That they thought there was any chance at all indicates how deluded the Dems have become. This mass self-delusion started in the spring of 2010 when they convinced themselves that ramming though Obamacare against all opposition in their own party and consistently negative public opinion polling was a good idea.

As a party the Dems are no longer thinking clearly, not even for socialists.

The few moderate Dems left after the great Obamacare a$$ ramming were either driven out of the party in 2010 or they they have gone to ground. Some of them may even be covertly working to defeat Obama in 2012 *coughTheClintonscough*.

Comrade Chairman Obama has moved the Dem party well left of where Slick Willie left it, and he is pushing it even further left every month.

The idea of her being just under the VP in the line of succession as Speaker of the House scares me. You thought she was a terror as Speaker, imagine her as President if something were to happen to the President and Vice President. Imagine someone to the Left of even Obama being in charge. Dear God, I need to purge my brain with excessive amounts of alcohol now.

Like many others, I was thrilled when Aunt Clara got the boot in 2010. Her insanely arrogant prediction that the dims will retake the House is just what I’d expect from this nutjob–and this fol espoir of hers just makes her look more pathetic than ever.

So I hope the dims continue to use the bad judgment they’ve been using all along and keep her on as their leader until they’ve finally realized (two or four year from now) that the U.S. isn’t buying what they’re trying to sell.

Of Pelousy? nah, they nauseate me. Terrific for appetite suppression. If my wife knew that, these would be posted on our fridge and kitchen cabinets. Sure fire way to get me to avoid the place I find food around the house.

Indeed, Hawkeye, Nan wouldn’t know what to do if she faced a real hardship. If all those millions she has were in the hands on an eeevuulll Conservative, Nanzi would immediately announce that he/she wasn’t paying their fair share and try to get her hands on the dough.

I think of my wife, who was widowed on Father’s Day 28 years ago (the thought of her having to tell her kids their Daddy wasn’t coming home breaks my heart). Her husband’s death left her with two small children to raise on her own with only the pittance she recieved from her husband’s Union pension (which exipred in a few years anyway). She gladly accepted help from family and church, but in spite of the rough times she had, she never once expected the government to care for her. She went back to school, got a degree, and entered the work force AND accepted foster kids as well.

She is one of the stongest people I’ve ever known, and yet is as feminine as any of the floosies that populate the culture these days. I look at her everyday with love and respect.

In 2010 the pubs gained 63 seats and we hear nary a word about that from the state controlled media to this day. Here we are in 2012 and the dems need only a 25 seat gain to retake the house. Should be no big deal right?

What’s the problem nan?

Lost in Jersey on June 19, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Exactly.

Richard Nixon resigned on August 9, 1974, and three months later, Democrats flipped:

3 seats in the US Senate
49 seats in the US House
628 seats in state legislatures

And with the new, post-2010 census Congressional Districts (drawn in large part by newly Republican-majority state legislatures) now being in place for the first time in the 2012 elections, it should be the Republicans, not the Democrats, gaining seats.

Democrats must really be be submissive puppies. Have any of them ever wondered if super-brain Nancy could be part of their problem? This situation is ripe for a rebellion. Not a whimper. Nancy would have their spheres in a lockbox. She who holds the purse strings… Then a again. Nancy as the face of your party, good for the good guys.

The idea of her being just under the VP in the line of succession as Speaker of the House scares me. You thought she was a terror as Speaker, imagine her as President if something were to happen to the President and Vice President. Imagine someone to the Left of even Obama being in charge. Dear God, I need to purge my brain with excessive amounts of alcohol now.

It is absolutely a mystery to me why anyone would walk into a voting booth and pull the lever for this corrupt, lying, hypocritical, hideous, evil creature.

UltimateBob on June 19, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Voodoo doll that is :)…as for your last paragraph, ever lived in san fr, then you’d know the types who walk into a voting booth (and may I ad, alas, in great numbers) and pull the lever for Nanz…believe me, there’s not eough Chardonay or other forms of escapism to go around in Cali, to make one forget for a few hours a day at least that they are surrounded by rabid moonbats…

Give us an update in what is going on in your states. We heard about MI and TX so what about the other states?

karenhasfreedom on June 19, 2012 at 2:03 PM

I read a couple of weeks ago that Debbie Downer has not yet filed her paperwork to be on the ballot in FL23, formerly FL20. From what I’m hearing, GOP candidate Karen Harrington would have a good chance of taking the district away from Little Debbie.

Hey Nancy, I just overheard a random conversation between two African-American gentlemen. They were calling Obozo a liar and you Dems criminals. One remarked to the other that he had voted for the O in 08 too. They were disgusted and your name came up followed by a word beginning with C (we will leave that to your imagination to guess what that word was). I was so gobsmacked that I went bang up to both guys and asked if I could shake their hands. They looked dumbfounded for a minute and then I explained that I was a member of the Tea Party and was happy they had seen the light and told them to attend one of our meetings sometime. It’s starting to happen folks. The Dem hold on the black vote will hopefully continue to slip. I know this is just one incident but it gave me hope for the future. I want ALL Americans to succeed. I want ALL Americans to have good jobs, live in homes they own, retire successfully. That includes African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians etc…We are AMERICANS folks. We are being lied to by this administration. Having said that we need to get some conservative Republicans in office to replace the RINOs. Welcome to the pool guys, the water is fine.

The strategy pays off in the long term, as Caucasians will eventually become a minority due to inevitable demographic trends.

Archivarix on June 19, 2012 at 12:51 PM

Archivarix, you Gloomy Gus! Snap out of it! Don’t you see, we pale faces can reverse that trend if we all quit our jobs, down a big dose of ED drugs, and start fornicatin’ 24/7, like the Uhbama voters. (And if IT is still standing after 4 hours, don’t bother the 911 operators. Just take a sideways gander at that photo of Pelosi — no straight-on viewing, though. That’ll burn out your retinas!)