Performify's Picks for UFC 76

Let me first apologize for not being able to post picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night 11 earlier in the week. MMAjunkie.com is growing by leaps and bounds, and I simply had too many commitments this week to do a quality job on a writeup for everyone. And rather than deliver half-researched picks, I chose to focus on what I had to do for the business side and then come back and do a bang-up job on picks for UFC 76. Hopefully I can continue my success from UFC 75, where i was 5-1 on picks for +4.5 units.

Before I get started, once again let me remind you about our UFC Wagering Leaderboard offer for your chance to win hundreds of dollars just by betting on your favorite fights. In fact, let me publicly congratulate our winners from UFC 75: C.R. from Houston took home 1st prize of $300 (for the second month in a row!), T.B. from Denver took 2nd for $150, and M.J. from the United Kingdom took 3rd for $50. All of these players had their bonus winnings automatically credited to their account and I wish them all continued success.

We’ve had a phenomenal reaction to this promotion so far. Here’s some unsolicited feedback we got from the winners of our leadboard contest from UFC 74:

1st Place Winner: C.R. from Texas

Thanks for the award. It’s much appreciated. I also appreciate the reports on MMA Junkie. The continued growth in popularity of MMA has been making it easier to find good stories on the sport, but I still look to your web site first for the best up to date info and rumors. I think I did well again this week on the UFC Junkie Leaderboard for UFC 75 by picking Cheick Kongo [+300] versus Mirko Cro Cop. My success on the UFC Junkie Leaderboard for UFC 74 was picking Patrick Cote [+250] versus Kendall Grove. That was a continuation from my UFC 69 pick of Matt Serra [+850] versus St.Pierre. Keep up the good work at MMA Junkie and Bodog, and good luck to everyone for the next UFC Junkie Leaderboard contest.

2nd Place Winner: B.L. from Colorado

Very cool – did not even know I was entered. Was actually on vacation out of the country during the event, and won’t be able to actually watch til thursday. So, I can’t comment much on the event. Sounds like it was a good one though. This will teach me to never bet against Randy again! sigh. Anyway, thanks a bunch Bodog/MMA Junkie – keep the promotions coming!

Thanks C.R. and B.L., and we’ll do just as you suggest. MMAjunkie.com and Bodog will continue to offer this exclusive promotion: Whoever is the most successful at wagering on UFC fights for UFC 76 will win real cash prizes from MMAjunkie.com and Bodog. This contest is open to anyone who has signed up for a Bodog account through MMAjunkie.com (using our links or banners pointing you to Bodog) and has deposited at least $20 to activate the account. See the UFC 75 Wagering Leaderboard for full details. First prize this time is once again $300, second prize is $150, and third prize is $50

The contest is automatic, meaning you don’t have to do anything special to participate beyond simply opening an account through us at Bodog. If you signed up through us in months’ past, or if you sign up through us now, you are automatically entered into the contest. This is only the first of many such automatic contests and promotions we’ll have for those signed up through us at Bodog. We have plans to greatly enhance the contests as time goes on!

On to the picks and predictions. As always, all lines are current widely available market lines at the time of this writeup.

Jeremy Stephens (-200) vs Diego Saraiva (+160)

An exciting battle between two lightweights both looking to score their first victory in the UFC. Jeremy “;Lil’ Heathen”; Stephens (9-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC) represented a good bet as a relatively unknown +300 underdog in his octagon debut against Din Thomas at UFC 71, but is getting a lot more respect from the linesmakers this time out. Stephens fights out of Des Moines, about two hours up I35 from where I live. I’ve seen him fight in regional shows, most notably a fight in the Midwest Cage Championships organization in the middle of last year. Stephens, who trains with the Des Moines Mixed Martial Arts Academy in Iowa, holds the Midwest Cage Championship lightweight belt and had posted six consecutive victories fighting primarily for MCC and Greensparks Full Contact Fighting before getting called up to the big show. Stephens made a good showing in his debut before getting caught in an armbar by his veteran opponent. Since his UFC debut he rebounded with a first round TKO victory at Midwest Cage Championships 9 in July to defend his MCC lightweight title.

Diego Saraiva is 9-5 in MMA and 0-2 in the UFC with unanimous decision losses to Dustin Hazelett at UFC 67 and Hazelett’s coach and training partner Jorge Gurgel at UFC 73 in early July. Saraiva is only 25 years old and is a BJJ blackbelt and a very decorated grappling record, including winning several North American Grappling Association (NAGA) belts and regional tournaments, and winning three gold medals in the Pan American Games. He has reportedly been focusing on his stand-up and conditioning in his training, trying to bring those aspects of his game up to the level of his excellent jiu jitsu.

This is likely going to turn to a traditional battle between a striker and a grappler. Stephens is generally balanced but does not have a top-tier ground game. He’s definitely got to be afraid of Saraiva’s sick jiu jitsu. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Saraiva pull guard from the outset and try to tie up Stephens long enough to work for a sub. Stephens’ camp will surely have him coached to try to quickly get back to his feet. It will be interesting to see which lightweight will be able to better implement their gameplan in this fight. Saraiva is not as “;bad”; as his record indicates and his grappling skills are definitely strong, however it takes more than just a decorated grappling record to find success in mixed martial arts these days. Saraiva certainly presents a valid threat to end the fight at any time with a submission, but I think Stephens will pull out a victory by TKO in the second round and represents an OK bet.

Christian Wellisch (-240) vs. Scott Junk (+190)

Scott Junk fights out of Hawaii where he holds the Maximum Fighting Championship Heavyweight Champion. Junk lost his first professional MMA fight to former UFC champion Ricco Rodriguez at Rumble on the Rock 7, but has gone on to win his next six consecutive fights to bring his professional record to 6-1.

Wellisch fights out of AKA and holds a 7-3 MMA record. He is 1-1 in the UFC. In his UFC debut, Wellisch suffered a first round TKO at the hands (or more specifically knees) of Cheick Kongo at UFC 62. Wellisch rebounded to defeat Anthony Perosh by unanimous decision at UFC 66. Wellisch has decent jiu jitsu, having won several US regional grappling tournaments including a Gracie Open.

While you’d think I’d be all over any Heavyweight named Junk… I’ve seen most of his fights and I’m not significantly impressed enough to pick him despite the favorable odds. Junk hits hard and definitely has a chance to shock Wellisch early with his heavy hands, however his conditioning is suspect and I expect we’ll see Wellisch get this fight to the ground early where he can simply outwork and tire the big man, leading to a submission in the later rounds. Wellisch also sports a significant edge in UFC experience — we’ll see how Junk’s already suspect cardio is affected by an early adrenaline dump. Take this with a grain of salt, however: Wellisch has not looked particularly impressive in his past UFC outings, so I wouldn’t recommend laying a lot of chalk here.

Matt Wiman (-290) vs. Michihiro Omigawa (+230)

Omigawa fights out of Japan’s world-famous Yoshida Dojo, training under decorated judoka Hidehiko Yoshida. Omigawa is, as you would expect, skilled in grappling and is a decorated judoka internationally. He holds a professional MMA record of 4-3, however it’s a bit deceiving — he started 1-3 after making the move to MMA from judo, but has won his last three fights — two of them by TKO.

Wiman was a contestant on the fifth season of The Ultimate Fighter reality show, and sports a 7-3 MMA record. Wiman is 1-1 in the UFC, losing in his debut in spectacular fashion via flying knee from Spencer Fisher but rebounded at The Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale to stop Brian Geraghty by TKO in the first round. Wiman trains at Mikey Burnett’s gym in Tulsa.

I think Omigawa represents a solid underdog play here. At +230 he’s being given less than a one-in-three chance of winning this fight, and I think his judo and grappling skills may just translate to a touch matchup for Wiman. I will predict Omagawa by referee stoppage in the second round — judo flip followed by some ground and pound.

Anthony Johnson (-200) vs. Rich Clementi (+160)

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson is another collegiate wrestler who has transitioned successfully to MMA. He sports a 4-0 MMA record and is 1-0 in the UFC after blasting Chad Reiner in only thirteen seconds at UFC Fight Night 10 back in mid-June. Johnson faces off against veteran fighter Rich “No Love” Clementi. Clementi was a participant on The Ultimate Fighter season four, “The Comeback.” Clementi holds an extensive 25-12 MMA record and has been fighting professionally since 1999. Clementi lost his first two fights in the UFC — a unanimous decision loss to Caol Uno at K1 Hero’s 4 (March 2006) and a loss to Din Thomas at the finale of The Ultimate Fighter 4 — before rebounding with a “gimme” victory over Ross Pointon at UFC Fight Night 8. Clementi’s one fight win streak was then was derailed by Roan Carneiro at UFC Fight Night 9. Clementi then jumped outside the UFC recently to fight in the IFO. There — on the undercard of Travis Wiuff vs. Sean Salmon — Clementi secured a first round submission victory to return to winning ways.

This is a good test for Johnson. We’ve seen thirteen seconds on him, and a decisive victory over the veteran Clementi should establish Johnson’s name as someone to watch at 170 pounds. Johnson by TKO in the first round.

Tyson Griffin (-165) vs. Thiago Tavares (+135)

This lightweight battle could steal the show as fight of the night despite being sandwiched between some really big names on the main card. Tyson Griffin is 23 years old and rolls in with an 9-1 MMA record, mostly from the Gladiator Challenge series where he previously held their bantamweight title. Griffin made his UFC debut on the undercard of UFC 63 (Hughes vs. Penn) where he dominated David Lee, finishing him with a rear naked choke. He then fought Frank Edgar at UFC 67, where he lost a unanimous decision. Griffin most recently won a controversial split decision over Clay Guida at UFC 72 in mid-June. Most impressively, he also holds a previous TKO victory over “the California Kid” Urijah Faber (19-1 MMA) who currently holds the WEC 145-pound championship title. Griffin now trains under Randy Couture at Xtreme Couture.

Thiago Tavares hold a perfect 13-0 professional MMA record and fights out of Brazil, if you couldn’t guess from his prototypical Brazilian names. Tavares won his first fight by decision back in 2003, and since then has reeled off ten wins by submission and one by TKO. The Brazilian is 2-0 in the UFC with victories over Naoyuki Kotani at UFC Fight Night 9 and Jason Black at UFC Fight Night 10. He has been training for this fight with Brazilian Top Team under Murilo Bustamante and Bebeo Duarte and alongside Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira.

This should be an interesting battle. Griffin is a strong wrestler with great flexibility and decent boxing, and Tavares is a submission wizard with solid muay thai. Both are incredibly young to be this successful, with Griffin at 23 and Tavares at 22. This fight will likely help define the future of the lightweight division — with both fighters this young and this successful, a war here could actually set up one or more rematches between the two down the line. If Tavares wins, Joe Silva will likely give him a shot at being a top contender by matching him up with one of the bigger names at lightweight. Likewise, a victory by Griffin would help establish him as a legitimate contender and would help to erase questions raised from the suspect decision against Guida at UFC 72.

The current odds have this at approximately a 60-40 battle in Griffin’s favor. I like Tavares to win this fight, but I don’t think its worth a serious bet at the current odds. I’ll predict Tavares by submission late in what could be a fantastic fight.

Jon Fitch (-115) vs. Diego Sanchez (-115)

Jon Fitch is 14-2 in MMA and 6-0 in the UFC. His impressive MMA record is made even more so when you realize his two losses came in his first three fights — he’s 13-0 since 2003. Fitch is well-rounded, possessing strong wrestling, grappling, boxing, and has a size and strength advantage on most of his opponents in the welterweight divsion.

Diego Sanchez is 17-1 in MMA and 6-1 in the UFC. He is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Josh Koscheck at UFC 69 in early April. Sanchez was the winner of the welterweight division of the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, courtesy of a dramatic first round knockout of Kenny Florian at the Ultimate Fighter I finale. Sanchez has built his impressive MMA record with wins over Nick Diaz, Karo Parisyan, and a dramatic first round knockout of Joe Riggs at UFC Fight Night 7 in December 2006. Sanchez formerly trained with Greg Jackson’s camp out of New Mexico but split with the team this summer (see: Report: Diego Sanchez Has Left Team Jackson). Sanchez is skilled in submissions and is a tremendously strong and fast striker on his feet. Sanchez still has a dangerous guard and certainly has the explosiveness to sweep or scramble out if he’s put on his back.

Most of the “sharp” bettors have been heavy on Fitch in this matchup. He certainly presents a lot of style problems for Sanchez: he’s bigger and stronger. He’s got better wrestling, better boxing, and is no slouch on the ground with a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. It’s going to be a tough fight for Sanchez, and it’s obviously an important one — a win against a big name (and solid record) like Fitch will put Sanchez right back in title contention at 170, especially based on the fact that his last loss was “tainted” more than a little by the news of his subsequent hospitalization for a very serious staph infection.

This will be Fitch’s first fight against someone generally considered at the top tier of the welterweight division. It will be interesting to see if he responds to the challenge. I recommend avoiding this fight at the current line — I know a lot of sharp MMA bettors love Fitch even at this price. This isn’t based on a lot of technical analysis, it’s more gut feel, but its still enough to keep me from moving much weight on Fitch at the current line. I feel Sanchez is going to come out with a huge chip on his shoulder after the staph infection disaster against Koscheck and is going to put on an impressive performance to catapult his name back to the top of the 170-pound contender list. But I’m not going to be surprised if Fitch dominates this fight start to finish, either.

Lyoto Machida (-200) vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura (+160)

Lyoto Machida represents a terrible style matchup for just about everyone he faces — he’s a focused and cautious and disciplined counter-striker. Machida is a Brazilian and at 28 has a bright future in MMA with a 10-0 record, 2-0 in the UFC. Machida has a strong background in karate courtesy his father, Japanese Brazilian Shotokan karate master Yoshizo Machida. Lyoto has also trained in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, where he holds a purple belt under Alexi Cruz. After Machida’s second fight, he came under the tutelage of Japanese icon Antonio Inoki.

Among Machida’s ten victories are two fights against top-tier talent: a well-publicized knockout win of Rich Franklin back in 2003, and a fight with BJ Penn in March 2005, where Penn was fighting up two full weight classes and Lyoto won a close — and to some, controversial — decision. Machida’s two fights in the UFC are both unanimous decision victories, over Sam Hoger at UFC 67 and David Heath at UFC 70.

Kazuhiro Nakamura is a teammate of Michihiro Omigawa and likewise fights out of Japan’s world-famous Yoshida Dojo, training under decorated judoka Hidehiko Yoshida. Nakamura is a veteran of PRIDE, with a 11-6 MMA record comprised of notable wins over Murilo Bustamante, Kevin Randleman, and Igor Vovchanchyn and losses to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva, and Josh Barnett.

Machida represents a solid bet at these odds, in my opinon. His counter skills, strength and balance are pretty much the exact opposite of Nakamura’s strenghts of aggressiveness, takedowns and throws. Look for Machida to pepper Nakamura from the outside with strikes and “stay on his bicycle” — constanly backing around the cage while countering and stuffing the occasional shot, on his way to securing a decisive albeit likely boring unanimous decision.

Mauricio Rua (-295) vs. Forrest Griffin (+235)

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is by far the most anticipated signing in the UFC’s history to date, in my opinion. Rua is universally regarded as the best 205-pound fighter in the world with a 13-2 MMA record and notable wins over Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alistair Overeem, Kevin Randleman, and Ricardo Arona. Rua’s two losses are a freak accident TKO loss to Mark “The Hammer” Coleman where he fractured his arm being taken down, and a submission loss to Rentao “Babalu” Sobral early in his career.

Forrest Griffin remains of the most popular UFC fighters after winning the first season of The Ultimate Fighter reality show. Griffin holds a 14-4 MMA record and is 5-2 in the UFC. Griffin is coming off a tough loss at the hands of Keith Jardine at UFC 66 and then a tenative rebound victory over Hector Ramirez at UFC 72. Griffin was supposed to have fought Lyoto Machida at UFC 70, however was sidelined from the fight with a nasty staph infection. Griffin now looks to get his career back on the fast track by trying to upset one of the best fighters in the world.

Too many people are making too much of a big deal about “Shogun” losing access to his trademark stomps and soccer kicks by moving in to the UFC octagon from the PRIDE ring. Don’t forget — he can still soccer kick. He just can’t kick a downed opponent in the face. If he’s given the opportunity, don’t think you won’t see him take a swing at Griffin’s body with a kick. He can also adapt his trademark stomps in to legal axe kicks to the body from the same standing position. Second, and more importantly, Rua gains access to elbows. And he’s not someone who is unfamiliar with elbow attacks. In fact, Rua has demonstrated some very amazing and unconventional elbow attacks in the gym and in seminars. I don’t expect that we’ll necessarily get to see anything unconventional on display here, but don’t be surprised to see elbows as a significant — and devastating — part of Rua’s gameplan

Griffin has better skills than many give him credit for, especially his ground game. His jiu jitsu skills are very underrated. However, I don’t believe he’s going to have an answer for Rua’s many weapons, and I look for him to lose by referee stoppage in the second round. Griffin’s wild swinging standup skills certainly give him a chance of pulling the upset, but its not a significant enough chance to warrant a wager in my opinion. Griffin is getting approximately a 30% chance to win this fight, and I think that line is pretty reasonably set. Shogun by TKO in the second.

Chuck Liddell (-450) vs. Keith Jardine (+300)

Chuck “the Iceman” Liddell is one of the UFC’s most dominant fighters in history. His place in the UFC Hall of Fame is assured. Liddell’s impressive 20-4 MMA record runs through a “who’s who” of MMA, from his debut way back in 1998 at UFC 17 to TKO victory over Tito Ortiz at UFC 66. Liddell has great footwork, amazing punching power, fantastic ability to punch and counterpunch from any angle, and one of the best sprawls in MMA. He’s coming off a fast first round KO loss to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 71, his first loss since losing to Jackson in November 2003 in PRIDE.

Keith Jardine comes in to this fight with a 12-3 MMA record and is 4-2 in the UFC. Personally, I’d put an asterisk next to Jardine’s record, as he should be 5-1 but was blatantly robbed of a decision against Stephan Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 4. Jardine comes in as a heavy underdog after a dismantling at the hands of Omaha-based Houston Alexander at UFC 71.

Jardine has mentioned in interviews that he thought that matchmaker Joe Silva was joking when he offered him the Liddell fight. I know a lot of fans feel the same way, questioning why Jardine is being given a shot against one of the biggest names in MMA. I think its a no-lose situation for Jardine and that makes him dangerous — if he loses, while its two in a row, the UFC isn’t going to drop him and he’s only suffered a loss at the hands of a heavily-favored opponent who is considered among the top of the stacked 205-pound division. However, if he can pull off the upset, he’ll instantly establish some of the luster he lost when he was dismantled by Alexander at UFC 71.

As always with a Liddell fight, the question here is if age and partying have finally caught up to “the Iceman” or if he’s still got enough gas in the tank to take this fight. Personally I think he’s got a lot to prove after getting dominated by Jackson, and I think he’s going to come out and put Jardine on the canvas early in the first round. Jardine has to be feeling a bit tentative coming off the beating he took at the hands of Alexander, and with Liddell’s counterpunching skills I’m not sure where Jardine can take this from a strategy perspective that doesn’t end up with Big John McCarthy standing over him waving his arms. Liddell by TKO in the first.

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