Yikes, reminder to self. Read the last paragraph. Even though the prediction is based on N = 1, the small error in your prediction is indeed impressive. It will be interesting to see if the model holds up.

However, if it doesn’t than I think we can conclude that probably means nothing as other factors such as containment could come into play, thus changing the dynamics.

Which suggests to me that it may not be a bad idea to split this into both a test/training set to see how well it fits at the present time (For data we’d like N = 1,600, vs N = 16, but while the former is great for the data analyst, it is doomsday for humanity, dark humor here to break the tension). Nevertheless, good work. Thanks for sharing it.

Reply To: Coronavirus (Wuhan) Forum

So, Apple announces a temporary “mothballing”, so to speak, of Chinese production facilities due to the emerging pandemic and this happens. Does anyone notice something particularly ODD about this 5 min chart? (Hint, you were sleeping at the time).

154K infections, 25K dead, 269 cured?

Hey Chris,

Stumbled across this article on the Taiwan Times. I have no idea if the article is legitimate – but these “real” numbers (if they are real), perhaps provides the reason why China is doing what’s it’s done (massive lockdowns, etc…). Apparently these “real” numbers were released accidentally for a short period of time. Thought it might be something you’d be interested looking into.

fever and oxygen

So Dr. John Campbell suggests that you may want to maintain a fever/higher body temperature to increase the efficiency of the immune system. So perhaps it is not a good idea to try and take fever reducers? He also suggests the biggest issue we know about so far is that many patients will require oxygen and there is a limited supply available which will be challenged in a crisis. Are there feasible alternatives to going to the hospital to get oxygen?

Shenzhen today

Hey guys i’m posting this here because i’ve got nowhere else to go with this info with anybody picking it up.

The below is a screenshot of a conversation i’m having with a friend i ment online through streaming. Though i obviously am not going to devulge more at this point, i can say he travels a lot between Shenzhen and Hong Kong.

So far he’s also the one friend that has (had to) taken this whole thing seriously. None of my Europian friends think it’s a big deal .

They’re locking down the cities anyway without calling it a lockdown, instead, it’s a “half lockdown”

re: Reply To: Coronavirus (Wuhan) Forum

China dumping money on the markets? The Chinese are probably going to use all those US dollars they have in the bank to keep the economy up and as long as possible. When they run out of money (and they will run out of money at this pace), the Chinese reserve bank won’t have enough liquidity to continue buying US Treasuries.

"Just the Flu"

Over 140 million people in quarantine in several provinces, cities, and major metropolitan areas.

Building 4 new hospitals to deal with the sick (2 hospitals already built near Wuhan)

Mandatory mask wearing in public.

Spraying disinfectant with vehicles, buggies, and backpack aerosols in an effort to clean the streets

Chinese police is locking down people with coronavirus inside their homes.

One report of a person shot trying to leave Wuhan (uncorroborated)

Using large existing buildings near or in Wuhan to serve as hospitals

Lockdown of ports

Other world government measures:

United States, Russia, Australia, India, and Canada have arranged evacuations of their citizens.

Mandatory quarantines of citizens and Chinese nationals arriving to the nation from Hubei and affected provinces.

British government urged their citizens to leave China if they can.
Neighboring countries like Mongolia, Vietnam, and Russia have closed their land borders.

Major airlines (Delta, American Airlines, United, and others) have stopped their flights to and from China for several months.

Several countries, probably more than 20 at this point, have imposed travel bans or travel restrictions on people coming out of the Hubei province or China as a whole.

On the medical side, you have different medical teams trying to develop a vaccine. (expected)

US imposes mandatory screenings at airports and routing all flights coming from China to these airports.

I have never seen such measures being taken by any government against “just a flu”. The US does not fly citizens on cargo planes from half way across the world and places them under quarantine for “flu like symptoms”. Whatever this is, however it actually looks on the ground, US government officials are concerned enough to take drastic measures.

If you know any more measures taken so far, sent it to me. I am keeping a list.

Forecasting Data

This is a highly speculative post and total guesswork.

What I have done is to take the data from multiple Lancet articles, a JAMA Network study, and Professor Neil Ferguson’s opinion, and place them in a graph form. The Lancet estimated 75,815 cases as of January 25, 2020 and that it would take approximately 6.4 days for every doubling. In a later study of 99 patients, 23% of the patients required ICU care and other 11% passed away. The JAMA Network published a study of 138 patients in which 26% of the patients required ICU care and 4.3% of the patients passed away. Professor Neil Ferguson said that it was likely that the Chinese were only detected 10% of the cases.

Using some Excel sheet of the current data and trend lines, I have created some graphs to forecast some if the information. Just as with stocks, I caution that past performance is not an indication of future results.