Apple predicted to sell all 200K-300K iPads built for launch weekend

With Apple selling out of its first run of iPad preorders, one analyst has upped his estimate for debut, first-quarter, and 2010 iPad sales, predicting the company will likely sell more than 2.7 million this year.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Thursday his initial estimates of 900,000 sales in the June quarter and 2.7 million in calendar year 2010 "may prove to be conservative." He has compared the introduction of the iPad to the iPhone debut, when Apple sold handsets for $499 without contract in 2007. The original iPhone sold 270,000 at launch.

"We believe early indications suggest that initial demand is stronger than the company expected and/or supply issues have slightly constrained availability for the launch," Munster wrote.

The analyst noted that Apple said on Saturday that new iPad orders won't ship until April 12, and on March 31 the company's retail stores began calling those who reserved and iPad for pickup to confirm their purchase.

"We believe these signs indicate that initial demand for iPads was stronger than the company expected, and/or minor supply issues have slightly constrained availability for the launch," Munster said. "We believe the supply constraints are minor because the new ship date is not a significant delay. Ultimately, both strong demand and somewhat constrained supply appear to be resulting in the fact that Apple is selling every iPad it can build."

Last week it was reported that Apple switched its touch-panel orders to Wintek, as its previous supplier had experienced delayed shipments. When the company began accepting preorders, it limited the number of purchases to two per person. Apple also turned down volume orders for businesses. These actions fueled speculation of a tight iPad supply for the product's launch.

Weeks ago, a handful of reports of manufacturing constraints suggested initial supply of the iPad could be limited, with a launch limited to 300,000 units. But another repor alleged that suppliers have had no issues in the manufacturing of the iPad, and expect Apple to ship between 600,000 and 700,000 devices at launch. That report claimed Apple would have the capacity to ship another 1 million iPads by the end of April.

Also Thursday, analyst Brian Marshall with Broadpoint AmTech issued a note to investors in which he focused on the content that will be available for the iPad at launch. He noted that the iBookstore from the App Store will offer "most" titles from major publishers, including Hatchette, HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster, Penguin, Macmillan, Perseus and Workman, as well as magazines from Conde Nast, Time and Hearst.

Earlier this month, Marshall predicted that content sales will equal nearly 30 percent of the revenue Apple will earn from selling the hardware by the end of 2011. He said the "sticky" nature of the iPad and content purchases for the new device will see content revenue top 10 percent of hardware revenue by December of 2010.

OK, this is of course useless, as logic based on assumptions and guesswork does not really cut it... still:

- A blogger with a pretty excellent track record of predicting Apple performance and sales estimates 250,000 pre-orders and approx. as many reservations (that is 500,000 in total) based on order serial numbers
- more than 200 Apple Stores will have at least some stock in addition to that (lets say 100 each)
- more than 600 Best Buy stores will have at least some stock in addition to that (rumored 15 each)

Don't know if anyone noticed, but the hit ABC comedy sitcom "Modern Family" was practically a 30-minute iPad commercial last night. All about the gadget-loving Dad wanting one for his birthday, and his blonde wife missing out on getting in line at the Apple store in time before they all sold out. And despite even the Apple store being featured in the show, there was no regular paid advertising by Apple seen.

Kidding aside, it's really looking like this thing is going to be just huge. I am going to hold off for a few weeks but the more I understand what this machine is intended to be, the more I accept it for what it is. I believe it will be a game changer regardless.

It's all fun and games until the HP Slate hits the shelves. At least you're getting a real OS with that, not some watered-down, crippled phone OS. Apple was too lazy to scale down OS X so we got another iPhone, but you can't make calls on it. Awesome.

Don't know if anyone noticed, but the hit ABC comedy sitcom "Modern Family" was practically a 30-minute iPad commercial last night. All about the gadget-loving Dad wanting one for his birthday, and his blonde wife missing out on getting in line at the Apple store in time before they all sold out. And despite even the Apple store being featured in the show, there was no regular paid advertising by Apple seen.

Maybe it was written into the script independently of Apple because it's current and popular or maybe was written in because Apple has friends in Hollywood. Probably both. ...And these shows are typically filmed weeks/months in advance. Clearly beyond product placement and did seem a bit like a propagandist ad. But either way, it illustrates what incredible mindshare Apple has these days

It's all fun and games until the HP Slate hits the shelves. At least you're getting a real OS with that, not some watered-down, crippled phone OS. Apple was too lazy to scale down OS X so we got another iPhone, but you can't make calls on it. Awesome.

Are you just being provocative or do you honestly think there's not a substantial market for the iPad in its initial form?

My initial reaction was disappointment at it not being a full OS. Down the road I hope to see some of the things everyone has identified as missing.

But as the big reviewers pointed out, this is a device that might meet the needs of the masses, not those of us who frequently read tech sites. I agree that it's a big shift, boiling the excess of a traditional computer down to the parts that people actually use. Especially with camera connectivity.

Would I prefer usb? Of course. But I won't damn the device for not having it. There's still a huge market for it.

It's all fun and games until the HP Slate hits the shelves. At least you're getting a real OS with that, not some watered-down, crippled phone OS. Apple was too lazy to scale down OS X so we got another iPhone, but you can't make calls on it. Awesome.

those who want simple computing and will use iPad exactly as sold and advertised.

those who see the promise in the form factor, and will push the boundaries of it's productivity potential.

iWork proves it's possible to do productivity software on this "crippled" OS just fine, the key is that you can't just take desktop applications and throw touch on them. They need to be rethought and rebuilt. The Windows tablets of the last 10 years proved that a "full OS" on this form factor doesn't work, let's see what people are doing on the iPad a year from now, and evaluate it's usefulness then, shall we?

The iPad can't make phone calls... Wow! You should be a tech writer with savvy like that.

BTW, it's never ceased to amaze me the time people will spend to slag something they dislike. It may not fit your life, and that's fine, but you making unilateral statements on what qualifies as good computing is the height of crazy.

It's all fun and games until the HP Slate hits the shelves. At least you're getting a real OS with that, not some watered-down, crippled phone OS. Apple was too lazy to scale down OS X so we got another iPhone, but you can't make calls on it. Awesome.

It's all fun and games until the HP Slate flops. This has been tried and tried before. Full desktop OS interface does not work on a small form factor, let alone touch based. Although you can run native applications on it, don't expect developers to optimize their apps for the HP slate.

For a multitouch slate device to work well, the OS has to adapt a new paradigm of user interaction for that specific form factor. Just look at the consoles like Wii; the clutter is tucked away. All fullscreen, no windowing, large buttons.

You stated that a real OS is better than the watered down version then say that Apple was just LAZY to scale down it's desktop OS is contradictory.

If they were lazy like Microsoft, they would never scale down the OS altogether, just port it directly.

It's all fun and games until the HP Slate hits the shelves. At least you're getting a real OS with that, not some watered-down, crippled phone OS. Apple was too lazy to scale down OS X so we got another iPhone, but you can't make calls on it. Awesome.

1. iPad OS is actually a watered-up iPhone OS
2. iPhone/iPad OS is a scaled down OS X
3. It's no more or less lazy to scale up a phone OS into a tablet form factor than it is to scale down a desktop OS. It's just a different direction.

It is however a lazy point to make. 2/10 for trolling effort, 0/10 for originality. Watered-down troll.

Did Apple ever issue a press release on pre-sales numbers? I don't remember one. If this device sold out fast, they would have announced it to the world...
.

it's not Apple's style. Because someone can cancel a preorder or not pick up a reservation.

Once the opening weekend numbers are locked in then they will announce. Sometime next week is likely. Or they might wait until they hit some particular high number so they can say they sold X in Y days and add Z of that was on opening day. Whatever makes the best PR headline.

It's all fun and games until the HP Slate hits the shelves. At least you're getting a real OS with that, not some watered-down, crippled phone OS. Apple was too lazy to scale down OS X so we got another iPhone, but you can't make calls on it. Awesome.

Windows 7 on tablet...hmmm.... I don't trust OS which is not designed specifically for the job and I don't think 7 is able to handle touchscreen as good as iPad.