Kate has not changed much in structure during the past few hours,
with the center still embedded with a small CDO. Dvorak estimates
are T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity remains
60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. A NOAA hurricane hunter
aircraft will be investigating Kate again this evening. A pair of
ASCAT A/B passes at 14-15Z were helpful in analyzing the 34-kt wind
radii.

The intensity forecast shows Kate reaching hurricane status in 12
hours, and then remaining a powerful cyclone as it undergoes
extratropical transition in 36 to 48 hours while it interacts with
an upper-level trough and an east/west oriented low-level baroclinic
zone. After transition, the baroclinic forcing weakens, and Kate is
expected to weaken to 40-45 kt at 72 hours and beyond. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus through
transition.

The initial motion estimate is 050/26, as Kate continues to
accelerate into the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model
guidance is in generally good agreement showing a turn toward the
east-northeast with a forward speed of 30 to 35 kt through 36 hours,
followed by a slower northeastward motion as Kate interacts with an
upper-level trough. After that time, a gradual acceleration toward
the east and then northeast is expected over the north Atlantic. The
new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of and faster than
the previous one through 48 hours, based on the initial position and
motion, and a faster trend in the guidance. After that time the NHC
forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The NHC track is
close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through 48 hours and
is close to the GEFS ensemble mean after that time.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

An SSMIS microwave image from a few hours ago indicated that Kate is
well organized, with a large eye feature and a curved band that
almost completely surrounds it. During the past few hours, however,
the cloud tops have been warming, likely due to its passage over
decreasing SSTs. The initial wind speed remains 65 kt, based on
the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The vertical wind shear is increasing over Kate, and it is expected
to be in excess of 40 kt later today. In addition, a strong
mid-latitude trough is approaching the cyclone. Based on these
expected conditions, it appears likely that Kate will transition to
an extratropical cyclone tonight or early Thursday. After the
transition, only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong
baroclinic forcing.

Kate is racing east-northeastward, and the latest initial motion
estimate is a speedy 065/39 kt. The hurricane is expected to slow
down later today and move erratically northeastward to east-
northeastward during the next couple of days when it interacts
with, and ultimately absorbs, an extratropical low to its west. A
faster northeastward motion is predicted by the weekend after the
merger of the weather systems. The new track forecast lies in the
middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.

The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been expanded based on recent
scatterometer data. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast
was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Satellite imagery indicates that Kate has merged with a baroclinic
zone over the north Atlantic and is now an extratropical cyclone.
The advisory intensity is set at 60 kt based on earlier ASCAT-A data
and continuity from the previous advisory. The post-tropical
cyclone should gradually weaken during the next 2-3 days as it
merges with a low pressure area currently located to its west.
After that time, the global models show an intensifying baroclinic
low over the northeastern Atlantic, but it is unclear whether this
low is the re-intensification of the former Kate or a new low that
absorbs the remnants of Kate. The official forecast follows the
previous forecast in using the latter scenario.

The initial motion is 060/23. The post-tropical cyclone should
slow its forward motion during the next 24 hours or so during the
merger with the low to the west, and some erratic motion is
possible. Subsequently, the post-tropical cyclone should accelerate
toward the east-northeast and northeast. The new forecast track is
again slower than the previous forecast and is in best agreement
with the consensus models.

This is the last advisory on this system issued by the National
Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.