Saturday, October 26, 2013

Supply, Demand, and Toronto’s Defence

I wasted most of my University years taking Philosophy and
Science classes, meaning there wasn’t a ton of time left over to learn the
principles of economics.

However, the most basic of all economic theories, and the
one I have at least a rudimentary understanding of, is Supply and Demand. It plainly
states that the value, or price of a particular item, will vary depending on fluctuations
in both supply and demand.

For instance, if demand for a product skyrockets than there
is the potential for a shortage to occur. A shortage results in a higher price
point, since there is limited supply. Conversely, if the supply rises quickly
enough the item will enter into what is called a surplus. In this case there is
so much of an item available to everyone that its price decreases substantially.

Why am I boring you with economics terms you could have
looked up in Wikipedia yourself?

Well, I think there is something here that can be applied to
the Toronto Maple Leafs, specifically to the team’s defencemen.

Every season, especially around the trade deadline, I am inundated
with report after report echoing the importance of the vaunted “puck moving
defencemen”. The majority of TSN’s 12 hour trade deadline coverage will be
split screens of Dreger, Duthie and McKenzie checking in on the availability of
veteran puck moving blueliners around the league who could be that final piece of the puzzle.

All this brings us to the Maple Leafs, and the log jam that has
been created on defence. With Mark Fraser now close to fully recovered from a
knee injury the team will feature seven NHL caliber defencemen: Phaneuf,
Gunnarsson, Franson, Rielly, Fraser, Gardiner, and Ranger. You could say eight
if you include John-Michael Liles and his $3.8 million dollar contract currently
playing for the Marlies.

The term “puck moving” is a bit flexible and open to
interpretation. For the sake of argument let’s identify Phaneuf, Franson,
Rielly, and Gardiner as players that could be considered in that category.

Dion represents a much larger discussion and we’ll likely
devote more than a few blog posts to his future. As captain and an unrestricted
free agent at season’s end, Nonis will need to decide if he is worth upwards of
$7 million dollars over five plus years.

Cody Franson is coming off of a fantastic 2012-13 season in which
he finished with 29 points in 45 games. He’s off to another great start this
year with 8 assists through the first 11 games. In addition, because none of
the Leafs are ambidextrous (at least to my knowledge) he carries increased
value as a right handed shot. I have a hard time believing the Leafs would
consider moving him at this time.

Through process of elimination we are left with the two
youngsters, Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner. In a perfect world, one that sadly
doesn’t yet exist, both of these guys would be given a spot on the team and
Fraser and/or Ranger would spend time in the press box. But we know coach Randy
Carlyle is a strong supporter of Mark Fraser and he’ll skate in the team’s
third pairing most evenings.

At 19 and 23 years old I don’t think it is wise for the
development of either Morgan or Jake to be sitting and watching hockey games
every night. However, with the recent annoucnment that Rielly will
not be returned to his junior club we know that this is a strong
possibility. If their development is being put at risk then it behooves Nonis
to at least consider trading one of them to shore up a need elsewhere.

I know some rumors have been bantered about to send Gardiner
and Reimer to land a top six centermen. Personally, I just don’t see how the
math or value will work out. Reimer is a solid goalie but how many teams with a
top line centermen would be willing to send him away? Add to that the small cap
hit of Reimer and Gardiner combined and the salaries wouldn't align. Reimer
helps establish a depth in goal the Leafs haven’t had for half a decade; I’m
happy to have him for now, at least until there is a better understanding of
what Bernier is.

The scenario that does seem plausible and helps to solve an
organizational need is moving Gardiner for a top level center prospect. Outside
of Frederik Gauthier and Greg Mckegg the Leafs don’t have a ton of center
prospects in the pipeline. With all due respect to Gauthier and Mckegg, at this
moment neither player projects as a top six forward in the near future.

What kind of deal would make sense?

I look back to the Zack Kassian and Cody Hodgson deal as a
template Toronto could build around. Trading Gardiner to a team over indexed
with forward prospects, but in need of the ever popular puck moving defencemen.
This would help both teams address an area of weakness while also minimizing
cap issues that would subvert a larger move. I don’t necessarily want to get
into speculation on players to target since the list would be expansive. You
can review the center prospects of all teams on
Hockey Futures.

I absolutely love Jake Gardiner as a player. He’s capable of
doing things on the ice that very few defencemen can replicate. At times during
the Boston series last spring he was far and away the Leafs’ best player. Unfortunately,
this may end up being a case of supply and demand where the surplus of Toronto
defencemen necessitates a move. Let’s hope it’s one that helps the team take a
positive step in its never ending quest to find a first line centerman.

Darren is a fantasy
hockey writer who can’t escape his Maple Leaf roots. If you’re ever looking to
kick around some trade ideas or want a second set of eyes on your team you can
follow him @FantasyHockeyDK

1 comment:

Jason
said...

Would a Jake Gardiner for Mikael Granlund make sense? Granlund could line up at C or wing and he hasn't been great for Minny. He still has lots of potential though. I can see this benefitting both teams. Only problem is where does Granlund fit in? I don't see Bozak being demoted because of...well because. And Kadri and Bolland seem to be locked in to 2-3 C slots. Granlund could play wing alongside Lupul and Kadri but then you'd see Kulemin or Raymond bumped down to 4th... I would love to do a trade like Granlund and Scandella for Kulemin and Gardiner although a pick may have to be included to even it out.