Swimmer Michael Phelps a competitive predator

Updated 12:02 am, Friday, June 29, 2012

Michael Phelps swims to victory in the men's 200-meter butterfly final at the U.S. Olympic swimming trials on Thursday, June 28, 2012, in Omaha, Neb. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Michael Phelps swims to victory in the men's 200-meter butterfly final at the U.S. Olympic swimming trials on Thursday, June 28, 2012, in Omaha, Neb. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Photo: Mark Humphrey, Associated Press

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Swimmer Michael Phelps a competitive predator

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Michael Phelps cannot get past the obsession with the No. 8. He went for eight Olympic golds in Athens and came up two short of breaking Mark Spitz's record haul from a single summer Games. He went for eight in Beijing and got them, passing Spitz. Now, his apparent vulnerability to fellow American Ryan Lochte at the U.S. swimming trials raises doubts about whether another eight golds will come his way this summer.

These, however, are the ideal numbers to remember about Phelps: four one-hundredths of a second, five one-hundredths, and one one-hundredth of a second.

He won the 100-meter butterfly at the 2004 Olympics, the 2007 world championships and the 2008 Olympics by those microscopic margins. He took three international gold medals by a total of a tenth of second.

Those are the races that defined Phelps as more than Secretariat in a Speedo. They marked him as a predator. This is the Phelps everyone should tune in to watch in four weeks, not the dominator, but the thrilling clutch finisher. He may still dominate a race or two, but his legacy will be defined by his combativeness, by the clock's uncanny preference for him in races that the naked eye could never call.

At ease, all sabermetricians. There may be some small degree of random luck in Phelps' narrow victories, but when he beat Milorad Cavic by a hundredth of a second, it wasn't because one of the Serb's teammates misplayed a ball in left field. Cavic glided into the finish, lifting his head before he had touched the wall. Phelps, trailing the whole way, never let up. One guy was sloppy, possibly from fatigue, and the other devoured him.

For the record, Phelps' chances at eight golds in London face a serious threat. He doesn't control his own fate in the relays, and the Australians have an intimidating foursome in the 400-meter freestyle version, including 100-meter world-record holder James Magnussen. Then again, the French relay of 2008 looked stronger on paper and, for 395 meters of the race, in the pool. But American Jason Lezak swam a ferocious comeback anchor leg that, four years later, still seems like a mirage.

Phelps broke the American record in the leadoff leg in that race, a sign of his extraordinary combativeness at the Beijing Olympics. The 100-meter freestyle is something of a secondary event for him. His talent skews away from raw sprinting ability, and though he wanted to prioritize the event for these Games, he ultimately declined to compete for a spot in the individual competition.

He came out of Beijing saying that he hoped to drop the 400 individual medley from his repertoire in favor of shorter events. But the decathlon of swimming kept its grip on Phelps. He made the team in it, just behind Lochte, who is the same age and rather hungry after years of playing Phelps' sidekick.

It would be a mistake, however, to take Lochte's win in Omaha too seriously. In 2004, Ian Crocker won the 100-meter butterfly in world-record time at the U.S. trials, beating Phelps by close to four-tenths of a second. Crocker had won worlds the year before, becoming the first man to go under 50 seconds in the event.

By all rights, he should have been the favorite. In fact, he was the favorite. In Athens, Phelps hunted Crocker down in the final meters and took his fourth individual gold. Because his shot at eight golds had already ended, the event seemed a bit anticlimactic to the general public. To closer observers, it was a stunning achievement.

Lochte will surely remember that as he stands on the starting block for the 400 IM in London. The event allows a lot more room for strategy, and for Phelps to call on his experience. He has told people that he simply wants to make the team now, and not worry about finishes. That may sound like an excuse for losing to Lochte, but it's probably true.

As swimmers taper for a big meet, they don't just drop their yardage to shake off fatigue. They often do shorter sets at slightly less than 100 percent, in hopes of building up a racehorse's desire to cut loose at the proper time. After Phelps beat Lochte by five one-hundredths of a second in the 200 freestyle final, his coach, Bob Bowman, indicated that the edginess of their competition might lead to blunted performances in London.

Most athletes can't afford to pace themselves at an Olympic trials. Perhaps now, Phelps can't either. But smart money says the predator will wait to bare his fangs.

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