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The Borys Blog

Roderick Random

President Barack Obama held a narrow lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among likely Pennsylvania voters as the election headed into its final full week, according to a new Franklin & Marshall College poll.

Up by 9 percentage points in the same poll a month ago, Mr. Obama's lead shrank to 49 percent to 45 percent in F&M's latest poll, conducted between Oct. 23 and Sunday.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey led Republican Tom Smith by 46 percent to 36 percent among likely voters. Mr. Casey, whose lead was shrinking in other recent polls, led by 10 points in the F&M poll last month, too.

The poll surveyed 547 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

F&M surveyed a total of 849 registered voters with this number including people who were less certain they would vote. The registered voter survey, the basis for the other questions about the presidential and Senate races, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

The election is Tuesday.

G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., the F&M poll director, said the first debate clearly helped raise Mr. Romney's standing in the eyes of Pennsylvania voters while the second and third debates helped Mr. Obama slow his challenger's momentum.

The tightening Pennsylvania polls also gave the Romney campaign and Restore Our Future, a super political action committee that backs him, a reason to begin advertising this week on television in Pennsylvania for the first time, Dr. Madonna said. The Obama campaign has responded in kind.

"But it's a tough sled, it's not going to be easy," Dr. Madonna said.

Despite trailing, Mr. Romney, a Republican, can take heart that the state's most veteran pollster, Dr. Madonna, had him much closer to the Democratic president than a month earlier. Compared to last month, Mr. Romney also had a higher favorability rating and more voter confidence that he was most prepared to fix the economy.

In September, only about a third of registered voters (34 percent) saw Mr. Romney strongly or somewhat favorably, but that surged to more than four in 10 voters (43 percent). All of that increase came among people who saw him strongly favorably. The percentages of people who saw Mr. Romney either strongly or somewhat unfavorably also declined sharply from more than half (53 percent) to less than half (46 percent). About one in eight voters (12 percent) said they were undecided or had not heard enough to have an opinion about him, about the same as last month (13 percent).

Mr. Romney reversed his standing on preparedness to fix the economy.

In September, Mr. Obama had the edge on who is most prepared to fix the economy, 47 percent to 43 percent, but the latest poll had Romney at 47 percent, Mr. Obama at 42 percent.

A clear majority also disapprove of Mr. Obama's job performance. Less than half (46 percent) rated him doing an excellent or good job and more than half (53 percent) disapproved and said he is doing only a fair or poor job.

The poll had plenty to please the Obama campaign, too.

His polling lead here has proven durable, despite Mr. Romney's rise the last month. The new F&M poll is the 41st consecutive since February to show the president on top in a head-to-head match up with Mr. Romney, according to RealClearPolitics.com.

Also, more than nine in 10 voters (91 percent) said they were certain in their choice for president, giving Mr. Romney little room to gain ground.

The 9 percent still making up their mind among people who named a candidate and the 5 percent still entirely undecided could still turn the race to Mr. Romney, Dr. Madonna said.

"But it's a tough sled, it's not going to be easy," he said.

Mr. Obama remains more favorably seen by voters than Mr. Romney. Half of voters (50 percent) rated him strongly or somewhat favorably with less than half (45 percent) rating him strongly or somewhat unfavorably. Only one in 16 voters (6 percent) were undecided about him and none said they had not heard enough about him to have an opinion.

Voters also rated the president higher in other questions.

More than half (54 percent) said he best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans compared to fewer than four in 10 (39 percent) for Mr. Romney, though that was a 12-point decline for Mr. Obama since the last poll.

Mr. Obama also maintained substantial leads on the questions of who would better handle the job of commander in chief and who is most prepared to handle foreign policy, though Mr. Romney cut into both those advantages, too.

More than half (51 percent) rated Mr. Obama higher on the commander-in-chief question compared to about four in 10 (42 percent) for Mr. Romney. An even larger majority (56 percent) rated Mr. Obama higher on the foreign policy question. Fewer than four in 10 (37 percent) rated Mr. Romney higher.

In the Senate race, the poll shows Mr. Smith's surge the last month abated as Mr. Casey began airing substantially more television commercials.

The senator's favorability/unfavorability ratings remained only somewhat better than Mr. Smith's in the latest poll.

Mr. Casey stood at more than a third of voters (36 percent) viewing him favorably and almost a third (31 percent) unfavorably compared to fewer than three in 10 (28 percent) favorable and unfavorable for Mr. Smith.

Mr. Casey's job performance rating also remained mediocre for an incumbent with fewer than four in 10 voters (37 percent) rating it excellent or good and more than half (51 percent) fair or poor.

The evidence of Mr. Smith's surge slowing shows up in his favorability rating. Though Mr. Smith's rating rose from two in 10 voters (20 percent) to almost three in 10 (28 percent) in the last month, his unfavorability rating rose sharply, too - from less than 2 in 10 voters (18 percent) to almost three in 10 voters (28 percent).

"The Casey campaign allowed Smith to do to him what Romney allowed Obama to do over the summer," Dr. Madonna said. "And that is, in Casey's case, to define him as senator zero, as ineffective, as a big-spending liberal Democrat. Only in the last three weeks has Casey responded with his own positive commercials. And Smith still has a name recognition problem."

Almost half of voters (45 percent) said they remained undecided in their opinion of Mr. Smith had not heard enough about him to form an opinion. About a third (33 percent) said that about Mr. Casey, a reason his poll numbers slumped the past month, Dr. Madonna said.

"Casey's support was soft," he said. "Too many people did not know who he was and what he was doing exactly. Smith filled in the blanks negatively and Casey's now responded positively and now has built up" a solid lead.

Contact the writer: bkrawczeniuk@timesshamrock.com

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