President Donald Trump at Air Force One (CNN Photo – for education only)

By Steve Herman (VOA News) – ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE — U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to Hanoi for his second summit with Kim Jong Un amid hopes for a deal that would lead to the North Korean leader to give up his nuclear weapons.”I think we’ll have a very tremendous summit. We want denuclearization, and I think he’ll have a country that will set a lot of records for speed in terms of an economy,” Trump said in remarks at the White House before departing.

National Security Advisor John Bolton, two months ago, said a second summit was needed because North Korea had yet to live up to the commitments it made last June in Singapore.

After the Trump-Kim meeting in Singapore, Trump declared, “there is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea.”

But as he meets Wednesday and Thursday with Kim in Hanoi, the Vietnamese capital, there is little concrete evidence that progress has been made to set the specific terms of North Korea’s promised denuclearization.

On Wednesday evening, Trump will have a brief one-on-one conversation with Kim followed by a dinner that will include U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney. Kim will also have two aides present and both men will have translators.

Trump and Kim will then hold a series of official meetings Thursday.

Progress needed

A lack of a major breakthrough for the second time could have negative political ramifications for Trump.

“If the president makes substantive concessions, I think he will get serious bipartisan criticism,” says James Jay Carafano, the vice president of the Heritage Foundation’s institute for national security and foreign policy.

That would “probably be the last thing he needs” amid the possible release this week of a summary of the special counsel’s report into ties between Russia and Trump’s 2016 election campaign, adds Carafano.

Air Force One (Photo for education only)

“If the report is good news, a distraction is bad,” Carafano tells VOA. “If it’s bad news, it will compound his problems.”

Some analysts, however, predict there would be scant political damage for Trump as he can just declare a foreign policy victory.

“All it takes is Kim pretending to disarm and Trump pretending to believe him,” says Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“So long as Kim doesn’t embarrass Trump publicly by testing a nuclear weapon or a ballistic missile, domestically Trump can keep rinsing and repeating,” Narang, author of the book Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era tells VOA. “The advantage for Trump is that Kim’s continued expansion of his nuclear weapons program is largely silent, and, at best, shows up on page 10″ of local newspapers in the United States.

“If nothing positive happens, the Democratic Party hawks and the media may mock Trump’s pretensions and claims to be a master negotiator,” says Professor Peter Kuznick, director of the Nuclear Studies Institute at American University. “But as long as tensions don’t re-erupt on the Korean peninsula, most Americans will be satisfied with the status quo and move on to other issues.”

FILE – In this June 12, 2018, file photo, North Korea leader Kim Jong Un, left, and U.S. President Donald Trump shake hands at the conclusion of their meetings at the Capella resort on Sentosa Island in Singapore.

If Trump can keep the North Korean leader engaged, diplomatic efforts continue with sanctions still in place and Pyongyang maintains its moratorium on nuclear and missile testing, “Trump can pocket a foreign policy win going into the election,” according to Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Rebeccah Heinrichs.

With a status quo for at least another year, the president “can tell his supporters to stick with him so he can ‘finish the job’ in another four years,” Heinrichs tells VOA.

There is anxiety Trump might trade away the presence of U.S. troops in the Far East for concessions by Kim on nuclear weapons or intercontinental ballistic missiles. Such a move, besides alarming allies, could also open Trump to severe political criticism back home from both the left and the right.

“There is concern “Trump will ad-lib concessions to Kim Jong Un without his team knowing about it before hand,” says Duyeon Kim, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

“Concrete denuclearization steps don’t mean getting rid of things they don’t need anymore. It means touching parts of their program that matter, even if they are baby steps at first.” She added that a “front-loading on U.S. concessions without getting anything proportionate in return, as Trump did in Singapore, risks losing negotiating leverage very quickly and allowing Pyongyang to dictate this entire process. ”

One unresolved issue is a mutually-agreed definition of denuclearization.

Trump administration officials have insisted there must be “complete, verifiable and irreversible” removal of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, including its delivery systems.

For the North Koreans “denuclearization” also includes U.S. strategic assets leaving the region, as well as its long-harbored desire for American forces to depart from South Korean and, possibly, Japan where the United States military has posted 75,000 personnel and maintains about 50 installations, not including rapid response air and naval forces on the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam that Pyongyang also considers threatening.

A senior U.S. official says the American team has been seeking with the North Koreans a “shared understanding of what denuclearization is,” while it is yet unclear whether Kim has even made the decision to fully denuclearize.

Asked whether there has been any demand from the North Koreans about removing U.S. troops from the peninsula in exchange for a peace treaty, the official responded in a background call with reporters last week, “I’ve never discussed that in any round of negotiations.”

Another possibility is that the summit pivots from an emphasis on denuclearization. There is speculation the two leaders could announce an agreement to exchange liaison officers, a step short of diplomatic recognition that would see full-fledged ambassadors posted to each other’s capitals.

Trump has hinted at further one-on-one diplomacy between himself and Kim.

“I don’t think this will be the last meeting by any chance,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office last Wednesday.

One desired outcome for the U.S. president is a Nobel Peace Prize, for which he says Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has already nominated him.

“While the thought of Trump as a Nobel laureate seems patently absurd, he desperately wants to win, and there have been some other patently absurd winners in the past, including the recent past,” Kuznick tells VOA. “So, let’s see if Trump can pull a rabbit out of his hat or out of somewhere and surprise the world.”

By Erol Avdovic NEW YORK (IDN)– Pressure is mounting on the United Nations to set up an independent commission to investigate apparently premeditated and the barbaric killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Consulate General of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul on October 2. And UN Secretary-General António Guterres faces growing public chorus pushing him in that direction.

The civil society is increasingly frustrated why the UN chief doesn’t use the moral authority bestowed on him by the UN Charter. He could report the matter to the UN Security Council where Saudi Arabia could face serious diplomatic scorn and even sanctions if found complicit in the journalist’s murder as the Kingdom has confessed.

Sherine Tadros, head of the New York office of Amnesty International and its representative to the United Nations, told IDN she is even “not sure whether the UN is handling the Khashoggi affair”. Instead those in the headlines on the issue are Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

“Turkey’s investigation is extremely politicized and their results are leaked in a very strategic and cynical way. On the other hand, you have Saudi Arabia whose account of what has happened to journalist Khashoggi seems to change day by day,” said Tadros, pointing out that the Saudis are telling “clear lies”.

Peace and security issue

As reported, the Turkish intelligence was able to follow Khashoggi’s killing “live”, and then carefully dosed disclosure of recorded material gradually to the public through media organizations.

So far, as reported by various media outlets, all traces lead to the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), who is believed to have known that his 15-man death squadron will carry out a gruesome job in Istanbul.

Many believe that is exactly the basis for an independent and international investigation and UN should be on top of it.

Some say Khashoggi’s murder even represents a threat to peace and stability. And such an issue should be taken up by UN Secretary-General and dealt with great attention. But, Guterres has been so far reluctant to take necessary steps in that direction, while waiting for other UN member states to undertake an initiative, especially the powerful ones..

Speaking at an international conference in the Middle East in Manama, Bahrain, U.S. Secretary of Defense, General Jim Mattis said, the killing of Khashoggi “undermines regional stability”, and that the U.S. “plans to take further action in response”.

Asked whether the UN Secretary-General shares that view, Guterres’ Spokesman said his boss had spoken out “extremely clearly” on the “global issue” of targeting and killing of journalists. But Stéphane Dujarric apparently tried hard to avoid responding whether Khasshogi’s killing represents the treat to regional security.

He instead offered a broad view that “this is something of great concern to him (the Secretary-General).”

UN’s reluctance to take a lead and insist on repeating balanced and carefully worded statements on the banks of the East River in New York without finger-pointing the main culprits has only evoked the old geopolitical dilemma of what comes first – interests or values?

In the Middle East arena, Saudi Arabia is a major buyer of U.S. and European arms. But the situation may change after the gruesome killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Germany has, for instance, halted arms exports to the Kingdom, and Economy Minister Peter Altmaier has called for a joint European position on any further arms exports to Riyadh.

Yet, being a key Western player in the region, there is, as some suggest, a clear “business imperative” in Washington and in other European capitals.

At the same time things are also moving in a slightly different direction since global energy production is shifting in favor of the U.S., while Saudi Arabia is still a major if not the leading petrol producer. Riyadh is among the leading forces in OPEC – oil price forming organization that could deliver chaos or stability on the world petrol market.

Saudi Arabia is also chief financial contributor for some UN based projects. The Kingdom was a major donor with 100 million US dollars for establishing the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Centre (UNCCT) in 2011. UNCCT Advisory Board consisting of 21 UN member states with the European Union (EU) as a guest member. Permanent representative of Saudi Arabia to the UN ambassador, Yahya Al-Moualimi, chairs the Board.

Since he took the position in June 2017 Bin Salman has developed cordial relations with the UN and Secretary-General Guterres. Crown Prince visited UN headquarters in New York and had a friendly meeting with the Secretary-General in March 2018.

According to a written statement, the UN expressed “deep gratitude” for the $930 million provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the Yemen Humanitarian Fund of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Nevertheless, the UN continued to criticize Riyadh for its military operations in Yemen and even expose severe human rights violations hurting civilians by Saudi led military coalition there.

While the U.S. media once considered MBS a reformer, he is being increasingly described as someone above the law, and viewed mainly responsible for misconduct in the war in Yemen. Reports depict Bin Salman as enjoying the protection of Trump and point to his apparently close business relation with the President’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

Some experts maintain that Saudi Arabia is working behind the scenes in Washington and at the UN to ensure that Bin Salman wouldn’t face any consequences in the aftermath of the troubling killing of Khashoggi. And that reportedly is the reason the United Nations is waiting to take a decision on launching an investigation into Khashoggi’s killing.

Saudi Arabia is also the chief proxy power in U.S. efforts to contain Iran. The Kingdom is pretending to stay the aleader of Sunni Muslims in clear rivalry with Turkey. Although Turkey is NATO member it is also increasingly annoying Washington ally since Ankara build on closer relations with Russia.

Turkey on call

Human Rights Watch an organization for monitoring global rights issues continues to call particularly on Turkey “to urgently request that the UN Secretary-General immediately launches an investigation into the killing of Jamal Khashoggi.”

“While we welcome indications from the UN and Turkey that they would be open to an international investigation, we need to move quickly and make it a reality,” Charbonneau insists.

Turkish Hurriyet Daily News reported that on October 31. Authorities in Istanbul shared with Saudi prosecutor “some visual evidence in the case”.

According to the same source, Turkish officials were in “a deep distrust toward Saudi prosecutor (Saud Al) Mojeb as he repeatedly refused to answer questions about the whereabouts of Khashoggi’s body”.

Also a senior Turkish official told the French news agency AFP that “Saudi officials appeared unwilling to genuinely cooperate with Turkey.”

So far Ankara has not made any request to Secretary-General Guterres to go forward with UN investigation, deputy UN spokesman Farhan Haq confirmed by phone to IDN.

“The UN Secretary General has the authority to launch the investigation, however if it is to be effective Turkey has to comply since this has happened at their territory,” Amnesty International UN representative said, asking Turkey to hand over all the information have.

Sherine Tadros also recognized the “reality that Turkey is one of the biggest jailers of the journalists in the world,” and that is probably the reason why the Turkish government is “not happy” with UN to step in and investigate this killing.

But, it seems the UN itself is not in a hurry to investigate the case that has aroused immense interest around the whole world as rarely ever before.

Pressed by UN reporters for a clearer response weather the UN Secretary-General will launch an international investigation, and to explain whether the first statement on Khashoggi by the newly appointed UN Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet of Chile, was not a call for an independent and international investigation, the UN spokesperson explicitly said: “No. It was not.”

Dujarric said Guterres “would like to see the two countries most involved in this, conduct an investigation.” He added, the “diplomatic relationships between Turkey and Saudi Arabia are very important to the stability of the region.”

But human righst activists say Guterres needs to speak much more publicly and forcefully with concrete steps to make the international investigation happen.

“It’s essential that the perpetrators be identified – even if that leads to the highest levels of the Saudi leadership,” said Charbonneau.

Human Rights Watch UN director wants the member states to “use their influence with Turkey to emphasize the importance of a credible international investigation by the UN.”

Charbonneau says they “should also encourage the UN leadership in New York in this regard as well.”

Guterres should come forward

The need of the hour is simply “to do right now the right thing and take some leadership,” Amnesty International Tadros said as well. She stressed, the world is “at the crossroads where human rights including the rights of journalists and the freedom of expression and speech are under attack.

“Actually we are talking about the need for the Secretary-General to step up at this moment. It’s really a no-brainer. The world is asking for the truth.”

Experts say there is need of a real human rights champion – but not in the form of any world leader since most politicians are in over-excessive calculation between their own interests and common moral obligations.

But somebody has to lead the mobilization of those who seek the truth. Nothing but the truth.

“So we need a champion in the UN Secretary-General,” Tadros said.

While asking journalists to read out #JamalKhashoggi‘s last piece, Sherine Tadros also wrote on her Twitter account the last day of October: “We need a UN investigation to get to the truth so that we have a chance of holding those responsible to account.”

The Amnesty International, Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), Reporters Without Borders and Human Rights Watch recently made a joint statement at the press conference in UNCA (United Nations Correspondents Association) in New York appealing for an independent UN investigation into the torture and horrible murder of Khashoggi. [IDN-InDepthNews – 02 November 2018]

By Radwan Jakeem - NEW YORK – The presidents of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan have signed a landmark convention laying solid framework for use of resource-rich Caspian Sea at the Fifth Summit in the Kazakh city of Aktau after two decades of negotiations.

“The region has a unique culture, significant human resources [of 240 million people] and is rich in natural resources; due to its location, the sea also has geopolitical importance,” said Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev at the summit.

The importance of the agreement is also underlined by the fact that in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992, four new states emerged on the coast of the Caspian Sea: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, the Russian Federation, and Turkmenistan. Subsequently, the issue of the territorial allegiance of the Sea became the point of discord between five independent states, including Iran.

Previous Caspian summits that took place in Ashgabat (Turkmenistan) in 2002, Tehran (Iran) in 2007, Baku (Azerbaijan) in 2010 and Astrakhan (Russia) in 2014, gave a political impetus to the negotiation process.

The Aktau summit on the east bank of the Caspian Sea was preceded by the final 52nd meeting of Ad Hoc Working Group and a Ministerial of the Caspian States where foreign ministers signed a protocol on actions to be taken upon the signing of the convention.

The convention and six additional documents on various aspects of cooperation were signed on August 12, the International Day of the Caspian Sea – the largest enclosed inland body of water on Earth by area, variously classed as the world’s largest lake or a full-fledged sea. It is a basin without outflows located between Europe and Asia.

The contracted convention establishes the rights and obligations of the parties with respect to the sea, including its waters, the bottom, subsoil, natural resources and airspace.

The convention also settles a protracted dispute over whether to consider the water body a sea, which would subject it to international maritime law and accessible by outside countries, or to consider it a lake, which would require dividing it equally among its five coastal nations.

The dispute was settled by granting the Caspian Sea a “special legal status” that establishes the territorial waters within

fifteen maritime miles, external borders become state borders where each country exercises subsurface rights; ten-mile fishing zones adjoin the territorial waters and are under the exclusive fishing rights of each state. Outside the fishing zones, the common water area remains unchanged; beyond the state lines, the freedom of maritime navigation applies to ships of coastal countries.

The signatories agreed on freedom of transit to other seas and oceans and plan to explore the possibility of laying pipelines under the waters if environmental requirements are observed.

The summit participants covered issues of ensuring security, preventing emergencies and regulating military activities of the Caspian states.

Some of the fundamental principles agreed include transforming the region into a peaceful zone of good-neighbourliness and friendship; using the waters for peaceful purposes; respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity of each other; not allowing the military presence of third parties.

Among challenges addressed was the Caspian Sea’s proximity to the areas of political instability. In this regard, Nazarbayev proposed a multilateral agreement on confidence-building measures in the field of military activities.

The Kazakh President invited the leaders of littoral states to explore the potential of the convention in respect of energy, transport and transit sectors, as well as to optimise the tariff policies between members of the convention.

“We have discussed measures for multilateral cooperation and signed trade, economic, transport and security agreements,” Nazarbayev said at a press briefing after the summit.

He noted that all parties considered the deal – already dubbed the ‘Constitution of the Caspian Sea’ – from the point of ensuring political stability, developing the region while preserving and enhancing its natural and biological resources. “The Aktau summit demonstrated once again the ability of Caspian Five to jointly solve large-scale tasks,” he said.

Heads of state of Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan and Russia also made statements on the signing of the convention. Nazarbayev later held bilateral meetings with each leader of the Caspian nations.

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev noted that the Alyak Port his country launched in May would ensure full integration of traffic flows in connection to the newly opened Kuryk multimodal hub.

“Trade (between our countries) is growing and the cargo transportation is increasing, agricultural products supply is particularly active,” President Hassan Rouhani of Iran said during the meeting on the sidelines of the summit. He underlined that Kazakhstan has always been supportive of Iran on international stage while complying with international agreements on nuclear issues.

“Although actively growing, our trade relations have a large potential to be explored,” said President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. The two leaders are to meet later this month in Turkmenistan to discuss the Aral Sea –lying between Kazakhstan in the north and Uzbekistan in the south.

President Vladimir Putin and Nazarbayev praised the state of Kazakh-Russian relationship, flourishing in “all directions, with especially close ties in economy, military-technical and space areas.”

The summit confirmation by both sides came a day after Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton met with top Russian officials, including Putin, to lay the groundwork for the summit.

“President Trump asked me to come and speak to Russian authorities about the possibility of a meeting between him and President Putin,” said Bolton, speaking at a press briefing with international journalists in Moscow on Wednesday.

“There are a wide range of issues despite the differences between us where both President Trump and President Putin feel they can find constructive solutions,” added Bolton. “I’d like to hear someone say that’s a bad idea.”

National Security Adviser John Bolton looks on as President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference at the G-7 summit, June 9, 2018, in La Malbaie, Quebec, Canada.

Hawk becomes dove?

Appointed as a White House National Security Advisor just last March, Bolton — observers noted — made for an odd messenger for friendship with Moscow.

The former Bush administration official has long been regarded as a Russia ‘hawk’ and one of the Kremlin’s harshest critics over election interference, arms control, and other issues.

Yet challenged by reporters over his past statements — including calling President Putin a “liar” — Bolton claimed his past statements had no place in his current role as National Security Advisor.

“Right now I’m an advisor to President Trump. It’s his agenda that we’re pursuing and that’s the agenda I intend to advance,” said Bolton.

‘Political noise’

Wherever and whenever it occurs, the summit is all but certain to intensify scrutiny of the White House’s relationship with Russia amid ongoing U.S. federal investigations into contacts between Trump’s presidential campaign and Kremlin-linked officials on the road to Trump’s 2016 election win.

While the White House and the Kremlin have repeatedly denied those charges as a “witch hunt,” both sides recognized the shadow the investigation has cast over attempts at detente.

Bolton, who last year called Russian election interference “a true act of war,” seemed to comply with the Trump administration Wednesday, at least as far as any possible collusion between the president’s 2016 campaign and Russian operatives.

“A lot of the president’s critics have tried to make political capital out of theories and suppositions that have turned out to be completely erroneous,” said Bolton, adding that Trump had decided to disregard the “political noise.”

Indeed, that point was stressed by Putin in brief comments before cameras as talks got underway.

“From the beginning, it, unfortunately, must be said that Russian-American relations are not in the best shape,” said Putin in addressing Bolton.

“I’ve already said publicly more than once, and want to repeat again in our meetings, that this is mostly due to internal political struggles within the States themselves. Your arrival in Moscow instills hope that we can make at least initial steps towards the restitution of full relations between our governments.”

So many topics, so little time

Hovering over the next few weeks will be questions over what concrete deals can be worked out given the summit’s short notice.

Observers note that most presidential summits take months of planning and negotiations to present the right ‘optics’ and ‘deliverables’ worthy of a meeting at the highest level.

Bolton said he expected follow-on discussions between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov to address those issues in the coming days.

The two sides will certainly have ample topics to choose from.

Both Washington and Moscow have expressed a desire to find common ground on issues such as arms control and combating terrorism. More vexing have been the fallout in relations over such issues as Ukraine, Syria, Western sanctions, and allegations the Kremlin was responsible for the poisoning of a former Russian spy on British soil last March.

But Bolton eschewed concerns that the summit would produce little of substance: “I think the fact of the summit itself is a deliverable and I don’t exclude that they will reach concrete agreements,” said Bolton.

Atlantic Council senior fellow Robert Manning told VOA the best case scenario for the summit would be progress on Ukraine and Syria, while maintaining current arms control agreements.

“I think Putin so far has been willing to accept Ukraine as another frozen conflict. I think there’s efforts afoot to try to find a way back to the Minsk agreement and to find a solution to the Ukrainian issue,” Manning said. “And it’s always easier to get into an intervention to get out of it, and I think probably Putin’s looking for an exit strategy in Syria as well.”

By Jim Malone (VOA News) - U.S. voters head to the polls in November for a high-stakes congressional midterm election in which Republican control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate appears to be in jeopardy. The outcome of the elections could have a profound impact on U.S. President Donald Trump as well, and the president is starting to take notice.

At a recent campaign-style rally in Washington, Michigan, Trump turned up the heat on opposition Democrats: “A vote for a Democrat in November is a vote for open borders and crime. It’s very simple,” he said.

Opinion polls give Democrats an edge looking ahead to the balloting in November, and Trump is trying to get his supporters excited about turning out at the polls. “You know what it is? You get complacent,” he said. “We cannot be complacent. We have to go out, right?”

The president also told supporters not to pay attention to Democrats who insist they have the House all but won in November.

“We’ve got to go out and we’ve got to fight like hell and we have got to win the House and win the Senate,” Trump told the audience. “And I think we are going to do great in the Senate and I think we are going to do great in the House because the economy is so good.”

Democratic advantage

According to the website RealClearPolitics, the Democrats enjoy a generic ballot advantage of nearly 7 percentage points over the Republicans looking ahead to November. RealClearPoliticsaveraged several recent polls and found that 45.6 percent of those surveyed said they would support Democratic congressional candidates in November, compared with 38.9 percent who said they would vote for Republicans. Analysts see the generic ballot as a key indicator of party strength heading into the midterms.

Historically, the president’s party usually loses congressional seats two years after winning the White House.The losses are usually worse if the president’s public approval rating is under 50 percent. Trump’s approval has recently averaged about 41 percent.

Democrats are organizing with help from billionaire Tom Steyer, who is on what he calls a “Need to Impeach” tour around the country with the aim of helping Democrats win back the House in November so they can initiate impeachment proceedings against the president.

“We now know that this partisan fight has become a fierce battle for the soul of America, and we, the people, have to win this battle,” he said.

Steyer was in Orlando, Florida, this week and said his political action committee, NextGen America, planned to spend $35 million in organizing young people to vote in November.

Trump front and center

Apart from what appears to be building energy on the Democratic side, analysts said the president’s low public approval ratings also leave Republicans vulnerable in November.

“He is at a low level — not the lowest ever, but he is in the 41 or 42 percent job approval range,” said John Fortier of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a frequent guest on VOA’s Encounterprogram.”He still has the support of his Republican base very strongly, but has motivated many Democrats against him, and we see that in the special elections that have been going against Republicans.”

In addition, a large number of congressional Republicans have announced their retirements this year, opening up more potential gains for Democrats. As of late April, 38 House Republicans had announced they were either retiring or running for another office, compared with 18 on the Democratic side. Three Senate Republicans have also announced they are retiring.

FILE – House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin speaks to reporters during a news conference, Feb. 15, 2018, on Capitol Hill in Washington.

Jim Kessler of the centrist Democratic group said that was “a real sign of pessimism. Even the speaker [Paul Ryan of Wisconsin] has decided not to run for re-election. Democrats are overperforming in every race and special election since Donald Trump was elected.”

Midterm consequences

For Trump, the loss of Republican control of even one congressional chamber could have enormous political consequences.

“Losing control of the House of Representatives would stop the administration’s legislative agenda in its tracks. Losing control of the Senate would stop its appointments in their tracks,” said Brookings Institution political scholar Bill Galston. He is a guest on this week’s Press Conference USA program on VOA.

From the looks of his recent rally in Michigan, Trump seems determined to spend a lot of time on the campaign trail this year. In certain states and congressional districts, that could help boost Republican turnout in a year when Democrats are expected to flood the polls.

Most political analysts believe Democrats have at least a 50 percent chance of taking the House in November, which would require picking up 23 seats now held by Republicans. Some analysts believe if the Democratic wave is big enough, it could also allow them to wrest control of the Senate away from Republicans, who currently hold a narrow 51-49 seat edge.

]]>http://webpublicapress.net/how-democrats-could-alter-trumps-presidency/feed/0Who May Join US Military Attack on Syria If Anyhttp://webpublicapress.net/who-may-join-us-military-attack-on-syria-if-any/
http://webpublicapress.net/who-may-join-us-military-attack-on-syria-if-any/#commentsThu, 12 Apr 2018 19:49:45 +0000http://webpublicapress.net/?p=29357

By William Gallo (VOA News) – The United States says it is working on forming an international coalition to respond to last week’s suspected chemical weapons attack in a rebel-held Syrian town that left dozens dead. Here’s the latest on which countries may take part in possible military action:

FILE – Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May.

Britain:

Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated Britain is willing to participate in U.S.-led strikes against Syria.

May summoned her Cabinet Thursday for an emergency meeting to discuss the issue. Opposition lawmakers want May to seek parliament’s approval before Britain joins any military action. Several reports, however, suggest May has no intention of recalling parliament from its Easter recess, which doesn’t end until Monday.

This week, May said “all the indications” suggest Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is responsible for the suspected attack in the town of Douma, east of Damascus.

May has spoken with U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly in recent days about what she says is the need to “uphold the worldwide prohibition on the use of chemical weapons.”

Downing Street officials told VOA that British intelligence chiefs have been urging May not to seek parliamentary approval for retaliatory action against Syria, arguing that her predecessor, David Cameron, made a mistake doing that in 2013 only to be rebuffed by lawmakers, who were worried about a lack of overall strategy toward the war-wracked country.

Opposition leaders have been calling on May to follow convention and recall parliament before launching any military action. Some senior members of Britain’s ruling Conservatives also have called for parliament to be recalled.

A former British intelligence chief, John Sawers, told a British broadcaster that Cameron made an error going to parliament in 2013. “Parliament is there to debate and decide on legislation and to hold the government to account. It is not there to take executive decisions. This would be an executive decision of government and rests with the Prime Minister and the cabinet.”

FILE – French President Emmanuel Macron.

France:

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has vowed a “strong” response to Syria, said Thursday he has evidence that the Assad government is responsible for the attack.

“We have proof that chemical weapons were used last week, at least chlorine, and that they were used by the regime of Bashar al-Assad,” Macron told France’s TF1 television.

Macron did not say what the evidence is; however, he stressed France is in daily contact with the Trump administration and that they will respond “at a time of our choosing, when we judge it to be the most useful and the most effective.”

Macron says any action should send a message that governments cannot use chemical weapons with impunity; but, he cautioned against any action that escalates the Syrian conflict or harms regional stability.

FILE – German chancellor Angela Merkel.

Germany:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday said her country would not participate in any possible military action against Syria.

“But we acknowledge and support that everything has to be done to signal that this use of chemical weapons is unacceptable,” Merkel said. That includes, she said, German support for an international fact-finding mission from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, which will soon deploy to Douma.

Merkel also concludes there is “strong evidence” Assad carried out the attack.

FILE – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim.

Turkey:

Turkey has given conflicting messages about a U.S.-led response in Syria.

Initially, a presidential spokesperson said the “Syrian regime will have to pay a price” for the Douma incident; but, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim has said the U.S. and Russia should end their “street fighting” over Syria.

Turkey, a NATO member, has backed rebels in Syria who are trying to oust Assad. But Turkey also has troops in the northern Syrian region of Afrin, as part of a campaign against Syrian Kurdish militants it views as terrorists. That campaign has created tensions with the U.S., which has relied on Kurdish fighters to help deprive Islamic State of most of its territory.

President Nursultan Nazarbayev at the headquarters of his ruling Nur Otan party in late February 2016. (Photo: Kazakh Presidential Press Service – March 2016)

By Santo D. Banerjee - NEW YORK – A high-level briefing of the UN Security Council on the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and related confidence-building measures was a highlight of the month of January 2018 at the UN headquarters in New York. The fact that President Nursultan Nazarbayev chaired the event, lent it an added importance.

“As the first country from Central Asia ever elected to the Council, we became the voice of our people in this high office,” President Nazarbayev told members of the Security Council. He recalled announcing 25 years ago at the 47th UN General Assembly session the initiative to build a regional structure on security and confidence-building, the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA). Meanwhile, 26 countries, from Israel and Egypt to India and Pakistan, have joined the CICA.

“However, after a quarter of a century, I am back in the UN for my country’s presidency at the Council, and I must admit that the issue of mutual confidence at both bilateral and global levels is acute and becoming more urgent,” the Kazakh President said.

He added: Confidence building measures shall be a top priority on the global agenda as they represent a vital element for maintaining global security architecture and consolidating peace across the globe.

The Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev told the Security Council that the confidence building measures have proven their efficiency throughout history. For example, they helped prevent the mass destruction in the second half of the 20th century, when humanity was on the verge of a new, large-scale war.

“To save subsequent generations from the scourge of war,” as the UN Charter vows, ”is our common goal,” he said, adding: “Kazakhstan has proven its commitment to the goal by voluntary nuclear disarmament, which has been highly appraised by the world.”

As part of the then Soviet Union, Kazakhstan had 1,410 Soviet strategic nuclear warheads placed on its territory and an undisclosed number of tactical nuclear weapons. One of the Soviet Union’s two major nuclear test sites was located at Semipalatinsk, where at least 460 nuclear tests took place. Kazakhstan relinquished its entire Soviet-era nuclear arsenal.

The Central Asian republic created a new model of international cooperation, Nazarbayev said, with the establishment of the IAEA Bank of Low Enriched Uranium in Kazakhstan, thus strengthening the non-proliferation regime.

Kazakhstan’s nuclear disarmament experience can serve as a guideline for those willing to join it, he added, stressing that the country had established and strengthened its independence, reached non-aggression pacts, and built its global recognition by denuclearization. “We call for the leadership of North Korea to follow this lead,” Nazarbayev said.

North Korea, better known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, announced its withdrawal from the NPT on January 10, 2003 with immediate effect and since then conducted six nuclear tests: in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and 2017.

Against this backdrop too, the Kazakh President has proposed six measures:

UN’s tied pistol at East River (Webpublicapress photo archive)

First, making a withdrawal from the NPT more complex so that the example of North Korea may not push others to seek the possession of nuclear weapons. “Without questioning the NPT, I propose to draft a special resolution of the [UN Security] Council that would define the consequences, including sanctions and enforcement measures for NPT violators,” the Nazarbayev told the 15-nation Council of which Kazakhstan is one of the ten non-permanent members for the two-year period 2017-2018.

This is the first time that a Central Asian nation is a member of the Security Council and – for the first time – chairing an influential organ of the United Nations bearing primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security.

As a second measure, the Kazakh President proposed working mechanisms of applying tougher measures for the acquisition and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. These, he said, should be strengthened by separate Council resolutions. Besides, countries voluntarily renouncing their atomic arsenal should receive robust guarantees of nuclear states.

“Third, either success or failure to update the global security system relies on our ability to overcome militaristic anachronisms: we shall leave behind the division into military blocs that became both provocative and meaningless,” Nazarbayev said, adding that the international community could set a deadline for establishing mutual confidence and bringing about denuclearization by the 100th anniversary of the UN.

Fourth, the President emphasized the need to create political trust and a systemic dialogue back to the international affairs, stressing the effectiveness of the Iran nuclear deal and expressing the hope that the signatories of what is known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will succeed in overcoming difficulties and remaining it intact. Nazarbayev suggested resorting to a similar approach to settle the North Korean issue.

“We stand for granting by ‘the nuclear five’ security guarantees to the DPRK as an important condition for creating an atmosphere of trust for Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table,” Nazarbayev stressed.

Should the need arise, Kazakhstan is willing to provide a platform for negotiations, he said reminding the Council participants that Kazakhstan has successfully hosted talks aimed at ending the violence in Syria, and that seven rounds of Astana consultations have contributed to the noticeable decline in violence there.

Fifth, based on the experience of Central Asian countries in establishing a nuclear weapons-free zone in the region, Nazarbayev called for a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East – banning nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, and their delivery systems. Such a zone was envisaged as part of a package of decisions that resulted in the indefinite extension of the NPT, the 1995 NPT Review Conference

Sixth, the Kazakh President impressed upon the international community to avail of the modern scientific achievements, and strengthen the control of arms race. “I believe that confidence-building measures are also needed in forging common approaches to prevention of militarisation of outer space,” he stressed, adding that this could be a theme for a separate round of discussion.

He underlined, however, that these initiatives and the issue of the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction depend on mutual understanding and trust between nuclear powers as well as between all the other nations of the world.

“The global community is a single body, strong in its diversity and pluralism that can survive and strive when there is balance and harmony among nations and peoples living on this planet,” Nazarbayev said, praising also the role and the historic mission of the Security Council.

He concluded his remarks by expressing his hopes in trust, willpower and intelligence of humankind multiplied by the energy of collective action in choosing the right direction of peaceful coexistence.

By John J. Metzler- UNITED NATIONS — The landlocked West African state of Mali remains a critical crossroads for both international people smuggling and a nexus of radical Islamic terrorism in the Sahel, the vast arid region on the southern reaches of the Sahara desert.

A recent meeting in the UN Security Council underscored some of the key military and political concerns for Mali as the country is set to hold elections in April. The UN’s chief of Peacekeeping operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix described the situation as a “race against time” with growing insecurity “claiming hundreds of lives in the north and center of the country,” as well as with growing attacks on UN peacekeepers.

Back in 2012 Al Qaida terrorists seized the historic city of Timbucktu and proceeded to trash and desecrate the cultural heritage and to impose strict Islamic Sharia law on the inhabitants.

For the past five years a UN peacekeeping force serves alongside French military units in the 4,000 strong Operation Barkane in keeping a tenuous peace in a vast land almost twice the size of Texas and which borders seven countries!

Here the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali, aka MINUSMA, is tasked to stabilize a dangerous situation. Despite the top-heavy moniker, the overstretched force fields only 15,000 troops and police from mostly African states, among them Senegal and Burkina Faso. Equally both Germany and China field over 500 troops each in this operation. Tragically, MINUSMA has suffered the highest casualties of any of the current worldwide UN peacekeeping missions.

The UN’s Lacroix warned that Mali’s human rights and humanitarian situation was worsening with estimates of four million Malians, or 22 percent of the population, facing food insecurity this year, a proportion which could reach between 30 and 40 percent in the restive North of the country.

Mali’s Foreign Minister Tieman Coulibaly renewed his government’s call to “strengthen MINUSMA’s operational capacities” and welcomed progress in creating the planned G-5 Sahel joint force which will unite the militaries of the five African countries (Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania and Niger) most affected by the violence but encouraging a regional African solution supported by the UN and European Union.

Later during a meeting between the Malian Minister and U.S. UN Ambassador, Nikki Haley stated unequivocally, “Mali has been a strong partner of the United States in the fight against terrorism and we will stand by the Malian people.”

It’s precisely the terrorism nexus which has gained wider attention by both the U.S. as well as European states.

Poland’s Amb. Joanna Wronecka told the Council, “The Sahel region was among the most critical regions of the world in the fight against international terrorism.” She stressed the importance of Mali’s political stability and territorial integrity.

Yet Ambassador Karel van Oosterom of the Netherlands stated the case most succinctly; “The center has in a short time become a hotbed of terrorism, inter-communal violence, irregular migration and organized crime…this poses an enormous threat to the stability of Mali, to the broader Sahel region and Europe.” He added, “The linkage between terrorism and transnational organized crime is poisonous.”

Indeed the region is part of a series of clandestine conduits for drug trafficking, migrant smuggling, and human trafficking which lead into Europe’s soft underbelly. Many of these routes lead to lawless Libya from where networks of smugglers actively send boatloads of migrants towards Italy or often to their fate in the Mediterranean Sea.

Why is this important for the USA? The Sahel’s largely overlooked and forgotten lands offer both terrorists and smuggling networks the perfect climate for clandestine operations which undermine countries such as Mali and radiate radicalism into other regional states on the southern tier of the Mediterranean.

Realistically, the G-5 Sahel states comprise some of the worlds’ poorest countries so expecting local military units to offer an effective bulwark to Al Qaida is foolhardy.

Yet, American and French special forces training teams operating in this low intensity environment can nonetheless create an effective counter force to the emerging terrorist threat. The Sahel is not as remote as we may think.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014)

By Joyce Huang (VOA News) BEIJING — A group of top Chinese Communist Party leaders is meeting in Beijing to discuss amendments to the country’s constitution, but so far few details have been made public. Analysts said the two-day meeting, which ends Friday, is likely to further cement Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s grip on power in the party state.

The last time, China amended its constitution was in 2004, and like that revision, this meeting is likely to tailor the document to the current leadership’s ideological agenda. Whether or not the changes will focus on ways to benefit the Chinese public is unclear.

Of those academics we interviewed in China, some were unwilling to comment, fearing the possible retribution they could face if they said anything negative about the changes.

State media reports about the Central Committee meeting have been vague and when dates for the meeting were announced late last month, the official Xinhua news agency said the main agenda of the gathering would be to “discuss proposals about amending the constitution.”

The report did not provide any further details about just what proposals the 200-member body might discuss. It did, however, highlight the anti-corruption drive and the need to continue to ensure strict governance of the party.

That is a signal some analysts said that one key focus of the meeting might be on efforts to establish a new even more powerful anti-corruption agency – National Supervision Commission.

All proposals that are raised during the second plenary meeting of the 19th CCP Central Committee will receive final approval when the party’s rubber-stamp legislature meets in early March. During those meetings, a controversial National Supervision Law is expected to be passed, notes Hong Kong-based China political analyst Willy Lam. That law lays the groundwork for the establishment of the National Supervision Commission.

“This is a new nationwide institution, so most likely the rationale for setting up such a National Supervision Commission will be spelled out in the constitution,” Lam said.

The National Supervision Law and the commission it aims to establish has been a point of sharp controversy among some legal scholars here in China. One key concern is a lack of supervision and checks and balances over the new anti-corruption agency.

In an earlier opinion piece in the respected financial magazine Caixin, prominent legal scholar Chen Guangzhong gave a long list of concerns about the law and commission. That list included a call for the law to pledge to respect human rights and that the supervision commission’s independent power be consistent with those in the constitution.

Chen also noted concern that the drafting process for the National Supervision Law did not include the National People’s Congress or all relevant state agencies and instead was led by the party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection – the party’s anti-corruption body.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s massive anti-corruption drive has already seen more than 1.5 million officials investigated and the establishment of the commission is expected to expand the party’s anti-corruption powers to investigate at all levels of government, including at state-owned enterprises.

Analysts said amendments to the constitution are likely to also include political ideological changes as well. The phrase “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” is likely to be added to the constitution, as was done with the party constitution late last year.

During the 19th Party Congress in October, Xi had his thought and name added to the party’s constitution. That move, while seemingly symbolic, put Xi on par with former Chinese leaders Deng Xiaoping and Mao Zedong. Adding his name and thought to China’s constitution while still in office is something that no other communist leader has done since Mao Zedong.

“In addition to the ideals of the 19th party congress, there are other elements of the constitution that are unreasonable, but we’ll have to wait and see whether those things will be changed,” said Gan Chaoying, an associate professor at Peking University’s law school.

There is also speculation that Xi could use the opportunity to amend Article 79 of the constitution, which states the president and vice president of China can only serve two consecutive terms in office. Xi was approved to begin his second five-year term late last year and is now slated to step down in 2022. But many believe he wants to stay in office longer.

David Zweig, a political science professor at The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said he doesn’t believe Xi has the authority yet to pull such a controversial move off.

“I think that he still probably needs to prove to his colleagues that he actually can deliver on many fronts before they are going to give him a third term,” Zweig said.

Willy Lam said it is doubtful Xi would want to pass that amendment now, given that he has already accumulated so much power. But, the possibility certainly exists, he added.

“Xi Jinping is a very power-hungry egoistic leader, so it is possible that he might choose to do it during this constitutional reform,” Lam said. However, “given the fact that it would be abnormal to revise the Constitution again within a few years’ time, he might do it in one go.”

Any of the constitutional amendments that are proposed this week will first need the support of the party’s 200-member strong Central Committee and support from two-thirds of the members of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC).

Appointments to top government positions will also be decided during the meetings, but announcements are typically not made official until China’s NPC in March. Some reports have suggested that Wang Qishan, the former head of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection may be tipped to serve as vice president.

The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post has quoted sources who suggest that in addition to being chosen to serve as vice president, Wang may also be allowed to sit in on meetings of the top Politburo Standing Committee.

“If it happens, it would be a remarkable bow to the formality of Chinese and Asian politics,” said David Zweig. “This would put him in the meetings, though probably no vote, though he would be in there and have a right to speak.”

By keeping Wang around, analysts said Xi Jinping could have the former graft-buster continue to focus on the anti-corruption drive. His continued presence would likely be welcomed by foreigners and the foreign business community, they said.