W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #222

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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------#222
Issued on Thursday August 10, 2017 at 1300 UTC

Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-

The HF radio wave propagation conditions are in a
steady state.

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60
(75-60) meters- poor to fair at night and very poor at day, 40-30 (41-25)
meters- fair to good at night and poor at day,20-17 (22-15) meters- fair to
good at night and poor to fair at day, 15 (13) meters- very poor at night
and poor to fair at day,12(11) meters- very poor at night and poor at
day.10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

Keep in
mind that almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will
find that the 10 (11) meter bands will open via short north-south and east-west
propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds
form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west
paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the
equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- good at night and poor at
day, 40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night and fair at day,20-17 (22-15)
meters- very poor at night and good at day, 15 (13) meters- very poor at
night and fair to good at day,12 (11) meters- very poor at night and fair at
day.10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor at day.

We are now
firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions.

This means generally poor HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the northern hemisphere especially at day and generally good HF
radio wave propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere especially at
day.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during the summer and winter solstice.

Conditions change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency
(FoF2).

This
HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP HF radio
wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s
but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the public.

And
though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP,
I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the state of Florida USA
and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. And I also check
global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers around
on every continent of the globe and tweak if and when necessary.

The
hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels
received are based on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The
hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels
received are based on 100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

Please keep in
mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer critical frequency
(FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.

In 2017 officially there were 57 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN)
of 0.

Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2
more years, +/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now unusually
early.

In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
three more years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar
cycle #24 and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily
increase. Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the
big goose egg.

In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest
in the past 100 years and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type
solar minimum that occurred in the early 1800's. Other than sunspot magnetic
polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24
ended and solar cycle 25
began.

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and give me credit for it.

Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.