Expectations

Predictions are so 2016. When the world’s rocked by a single tweet and relevance is measured in clicks, nobody knows what’s coming. So why pretend? So let’s just focus on what’s reasonable to expect.

More volatility, not more losses.
The Vix spiked at the end of 2018 in a prelude of what could lie ahead, starting next week. We’ve seen more 2% and 3%-per-day moves than when Bill Joel had hair (and wasn’t fat). In fact, just a few days ago the Dow moved a thousand points for the first time in a single session. Combine high-frequency trading with wonky politics, record profits and record debt, central bank tightening plus an aging population shoveling money into financial assets and you get moments like that. More are coming. But ignore them. It’s noise. Day-trading stuff. Not for us.

But markets may hit fresh highs.
Think rationally, not emotionally. The greatest economy on earth is growing at more than 3%. Unemployment’s at a half-century low. Inflation is pffft. Rates are still reasonable. There are more jobs available than people to fill them. Corporate profits have been at double-digit levels. Technology is changing the world and goosing productivity. There is no recession on the horizon (although one will eventually come). It’s year 3 of a presidential cycle, so is the guy going to mess up the markets? And, yes, a trade deal with China is in the cards. There’ll be new highs hit. Whether they hold or not is unknown. But if you have a properly-weighted and balanced portfolio, sell nothing.

Rates are going up. Gently.
Yeah, things are more dovish after the market mayhem and Trump tweetstorm of the last six weeks. But even withering presidential scorn did not stop Fed boss Jay Powell from doing the right thing before Christmas and raising the benchmark rate. The bank’s job is to keep the economy going and employment plump but at the same time prevent a wage-price spiral. So far, so good. Count on two rate hikes instead of four in 2019, but it could more. It won’t be less. And definitely no cut. Not here, either – unless the wheels come off.

Mortgages on sale soon.
At 2018 ended, bond yields plunged. Massively. Unexpectedly. Decisively. Government of Canada five-year debt toppled from almost 2.5% to the 1.9% range. Normally this would result in a nice drop in fixed-rate mortgage costs. But not yet. It’s coming. The banks have seen their mortgage originations dry up and blow away thanks to the stress test, while low home loan rates and teensy spreads mean they make less money. That hurts, which has been reflected in the price of bank stocks (and banker bonuses). But with borrowers still straining, real estate markets wobbly and the all-important (competitive) spring market now just six weeks away, change is in the air. So take advantage of it. And borrow long.

Trump is toast.
Despite his legions of foamy followers, the guy’s rabidly loyal base has no growth. Over the course of two years the most unpredictable and iconoclastic president of our times has gone through cabinet ministers like facial tissue, increased business costs (with tariffs) as much as he lowered taxes, pissed off traditional allies and mocked anyone who worries about environmental, social or human rights issues. Walls, tariff barriers and jingoistic nationalism are 19th Century relics he has resurrected, and in so doing torn America – a progressive country – in half. The Republican Party is not the Trump Party. Even if Mueller ends up with nothing on the president, it’s virtually impossible for him to be the next nominee. 2019 will make this obvious. Markets will ultimately lap it up.

So long, Rachel.
Premier Kenney by a wide margin in May. Big alliance with Doug Ford. Trudeau will hate it.

More real estate diddling.
Housing markets have a profound weakness as the stress test has reduced credit by a fifth, prices have not dropped enough to stimulate demand and rents are rising as a consequence. It’s a mess. Government diddling has only made things worse, as the latest RBC affordability study showed. Nowhere have government policies backfired more than in Vancouver and those areas of BC where the new anti-real estate tax has been levied. Houses nobody can afford now cost less. Homes people could possibly afford now cost more. Offshore and out-of-province investment has withered. Sales are plunging. Everyone is paying a price for electing people with moronic ideas. And now, more. 2019 will likely see the stress test capped, and 30-year ams reinstated. Realtors will scream ‘buy.’ The hard landing draws inevitably closer.

Vote Max, get Justin.
In 2019’s federal election Canadians are about to get a lesson in Math. The Libs have screwed up federal finances, run a deficit every year, swelled the debt and presided over a real estate debacle while focusing on gender politics. Lots of people dislike that and crave a fiscally responsible alternative. But along comes Max Bernier, Canada’s wannabe Trump, with a new right-wing party, channeling Preston Manning’s Reform. Of course every ballot cast for the People’s Party is one less for the Conservatives. So, vote Max and get Justin. Mean the NDP’s giant mistake – Jagmeet – pretty much guarantees the far-left vote will collapse. And those folks are not going for Andrew Scheer. Math. Only so many votes. Split them, and the man that two-thirds of people don’t support becomes the PM. Again.

I’m thinking probably a squeak through Minority win or (hopefully)his dressup costumes + vapid equal rights BS + arrogance = a Leader of the Opposition ……until he tires of being second fiddle to anyone and tries for a UN posting.
The inevitable career aspiration for many a posturing, self important bureaucrat.

The women of Canada are smart and angry, and I say they will be a deciding factor in the next election. I have been observing in comments everywhere what they are saying and thinking. They are intelligent and fed up with the Liberal Party.

I repectively disagree on Trump, all the noise in the world is not going to phase him. Unbelievable all the crap that the left is throwing at him two years in and counting. It just makes all the whiners look that much worse. Nobody clues in. They must really be dumb. And I do not like Trump. But the opposition is so out of control..

I agree on the Canadian scene..pretty sad state of affairs but oh so Canadian. If Trudeau weasels his way back in I think we will devolve to the old “Quebec versus the rest of them” scenario for the umpteenth time. It will not be healthy.

How about Europe?? Macron is all but gone and Merkel is heading out the door. But they still advocate for the greater EU and the “greater good” , whatever that is. Good luck, I do not think so, not as long as the people can stand up and fight.

I read an interesting stat: “In 1981, the year Ronald Reagan became America’s 40th President, 44.3 percent of the world lived in extreme poverty (i.e., less than $1.90 per person per day). Last year, it was 9.6 percent. That’s a decline of 78 percent.”

Both Scheer and Mad Max are effects, not the cause. The cause is the long term abandonment of what the old Progressive Conservative Party was.

The current iteration of conservatism in Canada is fear based, full of dog whistle politics, afraid of its own shadow. Put together a policy driven party that adhere’s to what the majority of Canadians want and we could have a chance of more that 30 something percent support, split thanks to Max, and a political lifetime in opposition federally.

Why would I vote for Scheer/Trudeau lite? Since when is the lesser of two evils the correct choice? Vote for the one who best represents your ideals and who you believe will be the best choice for the country – and don’t let anyone convince you otherwise.

Whatever new, unpredictable stuff the new year brings us, I wish you all, Ladies and Gentlemen, lots of health, lots of success and lots of happiness to you and all your families. Garth included. Happy new year!

Trudeau’s fake economy and the ramp up of deceitful propaganda on CBC and CTV shows why the TSX has lost three years and we now stand at 68th in the world. Money talks, bullshit walks. You’d have to be nutz to vote Fauxcahontas and dump Trump, and Yanks ain’t stupid, its Trump for two terms like it or not. Its globalists that are being measured for coffins not Trump. Its a battle for sure, but one we have to win for the sake of western civilization. Like it or not we are the new Pax Romana without which the bad guys will do some terrible things to the living. Think its OK to dump the US? Think the 14th century plague numbers weren’t an issue. Think the bad guys wont be riding down your street if American doesn’t stop the progress of incoming butchery? Think Trudeau doesn’t have a clue? He’s in on it. EU, ditto . Think again. Vote Trump, your life depends on it.

Garth, Trump is NOT toast. Mueller has got nothing. if he had, he would have released it a year ago and impeached trump by now. Nothing, just spin.

Actually the opposite is true, Trump has the dirt on everyone else and is threatening to release it if they go after him or his family. There is already probably some back room deal to let the dems get a little traction off it, CNN gets some orgasmic air time and then it all disappears.

Then Trump dumps Pence, hires Nicky Haley and he will be attractive to huge swaths of women voters and hammers it all home in 2020. Then the GOP can send some cash up here to help us destroy Trudeau.

@#22 Ustabe on 12.31.18 at 4:52 pm
Both Scheer and Mad Max are effects, not the cause. The cause is the long term abandonment of what the old Progressive Conservative Party was.

The current iteration of conservatism in Canada is fear based, full of dog whistle politics, afraid of its own shadow. Put together a policy driven party that adhere’s to what the majority of Canadians want and we could have a chance of more that 30 something percent support, split thanks to Max, and a political lifetime in opposition federally.
_________________________________

It is unfortunate that scheer and mad max are the current leaders of the right. who will be next doug ford? yikes.

@#31 Stanley Oppenhiemer on 12.31.18 at 5:35 pm
Trudeau’s fake economy and the ramp up of deceitful propaganda on CBC and CTV shows why the TSX has lost three years and we now stand at 68th in the world. Money talks, bullshit walks. You’d have to be nutz to vote Fauxcahontas and dump Trump, and Yanks ain’t stupid, its Trump for two terms like it or not. Its globalists that are being measured for coffins not Trump. Its a battle for sure, but one we have to win for the sake of western civilization. Like it or not we are the new Pax Romana without which the bad guys will do some terrible things to the living. Think its OK to dump the US? Think the 14th century plague numbers weren’t an issue. Think the bad guys wont be riding down your street if American doesn’t stop the progress of incoming butchery? Think Trudeau doesn’t have a clue? He’s in on it. EU, ditto . Think again. Vote Trump, your life depends on it.
___________________________

#27 Yukon Elvis
The man that 2/3 of Canadians don’t support? Wasn’t that Harper? Hysterical all the lamentations about Bernier when every Liberal PM has to contend with a similar issue with the Greens and NDP!

It’s so cliche being anti Trump. The man’s platform is solid. I would also make my country great again, solve immigration problems, balance trade, add more jobs, and so on. What idiot wouldn’t want that for their country.

The alternative. Sell out your country, move jobs offshore, let any one cross the border illegally, have Germany and others not pay their fair share of Nato, and let China take but not give. Perfect country. Not.

Or you can run it like Mr. Dressup and ignore all that and just give tax payers money to any/all to make friends and be popular. That should advance our country internationally. Not.

Still looking for 50% haircut on SFDs in Vancouver. Personally I could care less having cashed out of North Van May 2016 and now living waterfront among orcas.

10y reader. Love your blog. You go dog. Where’s the party for your 10y anniversary. I have my speech prepared. It will include Trump accolades. Lol.

The clock is ticking. Max and his “People’s Party” need to work out a strategy with the Conservatives to win Quebec and the maritimes and shut down the Liberals to make sure they get enough Votes across Canada so they are running the country together after the Election. Fringe parties go no where. They should all know that by now. Work together – not in isolation.

Well done Garth. You really are excellent at what you do. May your NY be one of the best yet.

Excellent assessments as well, hard to disagree with any of it.

There is one thing that concerns me though (in the narrow context of economics :) and its with U.S. growth. GDP is growing there by 3.5% last quarter and all economic indicators are good! But… 5% of America’s 20 trillion dollar economy came by way of a trillion dollar federal deficit. This doesn’t include state and municipal meaning all that growth is from government spending, its not organic, not market driven and because of it, its not sustainable at least, logically anyway. The bond markets don’t seem to care, rate hikes still goose the dollar and that’s a really good thing, the illusion of growth is working maybe because the effect is what is most desired, high employment, profits, who cares right?

Karma cares. Can’t say when. Can’t say how severe the consequences will be. Not even really caring right now so much, way worse problems on our plates and maybe the U.S. can turn it around through government regulations alone in areas like this (its brilliant how he lays it out in the lecture with macroeconomics):

All throughout Canadian history our women have risen to the cause with a fierce determination. All ages are in agreement based on comments where I troll, and they have had enough with the political state of being. Mad Max, Jag the dancing man, and T2 the Mad Hatter are out of votes for 2019. They have done it before, and will do it again, because the women vote will determine the next PM.

Polls pretty much show Libs and PC neck and neck. Bernier will get max 2.0% of the vote. Not likely enough to impact results since they are not swing votes that will go to Libs. Singh is a different story. Unless Singh’s support just becomes apolitical, should be a big boost for JT. Garth almost seems upset JT may win again. Happy New Year to all.

Thanks Garth for putting up with my shameless self promotion. I hope some of my posts here have added positively to the conversation.

My last post of 2018 includes charts on Oil to <$23, the China Slowdown, the Canadian Dollar and the Gold / USD ratio as well as a reflection on your note today that "The (real estate) hard landing draws inevitably closer."

Trump is toast if he doesn’t get his wall…..one of his key campaign promises.

I don’t think folks understand the purpose of Mueller. It isnt to find dirt on Trump….there isn’t any….it would have come out in 2016. None of Mueller’s indictements have anything to do with Trump.

Mueller is there to provide cover for the corrupt FBI\DOJ, to hide their attempted coup attempt against a sitting President with a fake Russian dossier and campaign spying.

The Special Council can/has considered all/any incriminating documentation privileged, and any unredacted releases by Trump would be painted as obstruction of justice in their ongoing investigation. A very clever play by the swamp.

Trump will at some point have to release those unredacted FISA applications proving the FBI lied about evidence, and foreign nations aided in the rouse…i.e. UK and Australia.

At this point the States are toast – doesn’t matter who is next headknob – Canada is toast cause we is stuck with noodlehead – get a dog in the new year and watch the sh*tshow continue around the globe – Happy New Year LMAO WTF

Garth , there is no hard landing, you have been calling for a real estate debacle for years and years and years and years and years , time to move on. Appreciate all your financial wisdom in other areas and advice, have a Grand New Year!

Mortgage rates may not come down that fast. GoC rates are down over 50 bps, true, but bank credit spreads are up 40 bps due to market turmoil. High ratio mortgage rates will go down due to lower CMB cost but thats smaller part of the mortgage market.

#38 KLNR, trolling for Groper and his Trollettes….much? Post a picture of your Mom with a sack over her head being stoned for singing , and a knife at her throat while your gay brother is being thrown off a rooftop above the square where they’re auctioning off your daughter, and then tell us what the opposition has in store and why you support that horror, because today all those things are happening on the fringes of our little bubble of civilization and democracy, being chipped away by fanatics like Trudeau. Freedom isn’t free and there’s lots of globalist wankers who will take it away from you if enough people like yourselves aren’t prepared to speak out against the loss of it. People had to fight and bleed so that trolls like yourself could say stupid things on the internet. Think about it.

Okay the Stress test requires the ability to qualify at a Bank of Canada 5 year rate that is based on average big bank posted rates plus 2%.

The banks normally will give a discount from their posted five year. RBC right now has an advertised special rate that is 1.45% lower than its posted rate.

So why do the banks have a posted 5 year that is about 1.45% higher than what they will actually lend at?

What is the purpose of the high posted rate? Is it there to scare off unwanted customers? How much lending do they actually do at the posted rate?

If in fact the banks rarely charge the posted rate then their discounted rates amount to falsely claiming or exaggerating a “sale” price. Does not the competition bureau usually come after retailers who do that?

If the banks actually think the stress test is too high at the average posted plus 2% and at actual mortgage rates plus about 3.5%, why don’t the banks simply lower their posted rates to something close to their actual lending rates? If the big banks all lowered their posted rates, the stress test rate would be lower but the rates they are actually willing to lend at for most borrowers would be unchanged. Voila, stress test neutered somewhat.

The stress test rate is actually about double the actual best 5 year rates? Is that over-kill?

Trump is a shoe-in. Look at the price of gas…the middle class is in “climate change heaven” I mean $2.00 U.S. a gallon filerup Nellee.
Poor Max..he lost his life’s reason. Now the rest of us have to pay for his pain. Life sucks in French and en anglais. Have to hand it to Andrew Scheer with five kids and running for Prime-Minister. Five kids. Makes you feel he is on the up and up. Trudeau is flashy and suave but Scheer does not waste time looking in the mirror more than necessary as he is looking for ways to right the good ship “Canada”. Steady sailing Captain.

People quit his administration because they can’t stand him… he’s an effing moron who reads at a grade 5 level and understands at a grade 2 level. He changes his opinion based on who he spoke with last and he is an awful negotiator – like him owning the shutdown and ‘winning’ against N Korea.

you Deplorables are the biggest victims here – for believing Trump is bigger and better than he actually is.

I have reviewed these predictions with my crystal ball and deemed them to be mostly accurate. 2 exceptions:

Trump is not toast and will serve out his term. However I think he will not stand for re-election in 2020. Why would he? Plus I am suspicious Melania has told him of her intent to divorce but they made a deal that it would be after his term. When you have 3.2 billion dollars you can negotiate such things. There is some possibility I am wrong about this if the Republicans cannot come up with a candidate that can capture the hearts of the right. They may have to field Trump again but they may have a losing cause. Everyone knows that the only reason Trump won was because Hillary was unelectable.

Mad Max will not be a major factor in the election, because he doesn’t sell outside Quebec and Quebec is going to vote Liberal either way. If he is a factor at all it will because the few ridings that might go Conservative in Montreal might get vote-split.

The election is still going to be interesting, perhaps the most interesting in years. Yes, Trudeau is loathed even more than Trump, and is just as much of a buffoon, but it is yet to be determined whether the Conservatives can get someone to rally behind or get people to rally behind Andrew Scheer. But who even knows who Andrew Scheer is? Even Stephen Harper was better at bringing the spotlight to the Conservative party. So the election will be very interesting as practically every riding in Quebec outside of Montreal goes Liberal, everything west of Ontario votes anything but Liberal, and the election gets decided in Ontario. Well, except BC. I predict BC will have a hard time electing anybody. But it doesn’t matter because the election is always over by the time their votes get counted anyway. The elections are decided in Quebec and Ontario, with Alberta sometimes the tie-breaker.

Oh and you can be sure Rachel is gone. She may not even win her own riding. Alberta will not make that mistake again.

Clearly building hope for a correction for another year with this prediction.

Even with a stress test that wiped out 20% of potential buyers, and rising interest rates, the hottest markets saw a decline in sales but negligible price declines.

Now with interest rates on hold, or moving up in a glacial way, the reintroduction of the 30 year amortization, and a cap on the stress test, the only thing that impacted the market, you seriously think this will not stimulate demand?

These are all highly stimulative moves that will cater to a generation that has seen real estate only go up in value while portfolios get hammered.

A mere 50 basis point cut in rates in 2015 thrust markets into new highs, with 30-40% increases over the past few years. And rates are going nowhere, making Carney warning us about rising rates and debt levels since 2012 look moronic.

Extending the amortization to 30 years significantly increases the amount newbies and anyone can borrow, pushing prices higher.

And the forthcoming cap on the stress test tells everyone with a pulse that the government will not let real estate fail. The so-called independent OFSI will bow to political pressure, because 70% of Canadians are homeowners and we are heading into an election where the young are miffed they cannot own.

Sorry, but 2019 will see rising prices again. These three measures will add new fuel to the fire. Face it, real estate is just too darn important to the economy and too big to fail.

Total myth. More demand and higher prices make a hard landing far more likely. – Garth

Yes, we’ll lose Rachel – best Premier we’ve had since Peter Lougheed, and she’ll be replaced by the same ultra right wing, incompetent, social conservatives we had before.

Disagree on the Maxime outcome, because Scheer is a white wet towel who will be destroyed by T2 and others in the debates. Jagmeet is history and, as in MAGA 2016, the frustrated working class will move to the Populist option. I predict a massive shift in Quebec, Ontario and the Prairies to the People’s Party of Canada – enough for a minority government.

Drop in mortgage rates means new highs for homes in Vancouver and Toronto?

Also makes me sick that JT could win again. Where have these people who are going to vote for him been over the last 3 years!? Someone who screwed up that much should never get a second term…….I can’t even find people who admitted to voting for him last time!

Hahahahaha…………good one Garth! The battle for re-election will be between Trump and Biden and Trump will wipe up the floor with him! Americans love Trump! He is a fantastic President. Your media outlets here are all just spewing continuing lies about Trump. They are just repeating their narrative often enough so that most people who still watch passive TV will believe what they say. Listening about America and Trump through foreign media is, as Trump says, FAKE NEWS.
Y’all need to live in the U.S., travel to the heartland, grow up with family and friends there for decades to really understand the true nature, identity, heartbeat and freedom that is America. Trump winning again in 2020 is a certainty.

Up until a few weeks months, I too thought Trump would survive and persevere….not anymore. It’s clear now that he abandoned his ‘Wall’ long ago…he’s window dressing now and will lose his base because of it in 2020.

Trump 2020: very high probability
If Trump’s popularity has you baffled then I would suggest listening to the Rush Limbaugh Radio Program. It’s widely available on internet radio.
I’ve never heard anyone who can explain the Trump phenomenon as well as Rush. You can completely ignore the mainstream media, they’ve shown themselves as nothing but shills for the Democrat Party. The elites in the US (& Canada) have nothing but contempt for the American people & Trump is their way to fight back.

Looks like gold sovereigns hanging from the pooch’s head gear…Garth was fairly positive on gold some years back…like 2-5 % of one’s portfolio. Maybe a subliminal (hardly) message that Garth is warming up to the princely metal again. Gold been doing pretty good lately and if the US buck drops more and if the Feds stalls on these miniscule interest rate hikes and actually start to retreat, we may have a nice little move up in the metals. The metals been in the dog house ( sorry) for a long time. Perhaps it’s their turn to shine..

Trump is definitely running again in 2020. That prediction is laughable.

He’s likely to be impeached by the Dem controlled House, but the Republican Senate will save him.

I actually think it would be terrible politics for the Dems to put forward impeachment….it has almost no chance of succeeding and will only help unify the Republicans.

If you analyze the actual facts – Trump faired slightly better then average for mid-terms. He really is a master at campaigning and bringing out the base.

Approval ratings literally have zero correlation to election outcomes. His odds of winning another term are basically 50% and probably increase to 55% if the Dems try another woman (sorry ladies its true).

It’s an eternity until Nov 3rd 2020.

Couldn’t agree more about the Canadian landscape. The best thing the Liberals have going for them is an extraordinarily weak NDP leader. Liberal majority seems likely.

To each there own; but I found this link/post hilarious due to the snowflakes in the U.S. shedding a few tears of the very machines that protect there way of life, allows them freedom of speech; my god are they in trouble if it goes the other way. It was a joke!!!!!!!!!!

#50 Lee on 12.31.18 at 6:59 pm
Polls pretty much show Libs and PC neck and neck. Bernier will get max 2.0% of the vote. Not likely enough to impact results since they are not swing votes that will go to Libs. Singh is a different story. Unless Singh’s support just becomes apolitical, should be a big boost for JT. Garth almost seems upset JT may win again. Happy New Year to all.
………
Jagmeet will not be the leader of the NDP at election time….Nathan Cullen will be.

HNY Gartho. Thanks for all you do in educating the masses. Bang-on predictions for 2019…T2’s forthcoming re-election and (at least) four more years of idiocy are the reason I just made my annual portfolio reshuffle, and, for the first time since I began index investing, I’m screwing with my country balance and going 30:20 US:Maple. China trade deal coming, Trump keeping taxes low and pressuring the fed to do the same to rates,T2 putting his focus on gender assessments at the expense of time spent on economic assessments and other displayed of arrogance and near-negligent ineptitude and we’re set to underperform for the next five years at least. Maybe I’m being emotional, which is a crappy way to invest, but I just can’t see us competing for global capital with that utter twit in charge.

Glad to be able to vote for premier Kenney in 2019, at least Alberta will have its sanity back amidst the debacle that is our federal leadership.

Why are all the long term conservatives repeating this line – a vote for Max is a vote for Trudeau?

Ya, math, we get it!

And that’s all they got!! Scheer is conservative in party name only. He has shifted the party to the left! The party knows they screwed up electing him. You certainly don’t hear what a great leader he is!!

Max’s message, policies and platform is resonating with people, and the Conservative party has to earn the votes. If you want things in Canada to change you have to vote for change. I’m voting for Max.

The Jag will weigh in on just one thing. Notley/Alberta.
The Jag has never voted anything but Conservative. Albertan pedigree – 1885. Rachel Notley ‘ inherited’ the current problems. Only dumb ass people masquerading as Albertans would say otherwise. (lots of those in Alberta, cue the ones wearing watermelon helmuts at Stamps Games). It was the ‘Frac Tsunami’ that swept the world and this province and both Prentice and Redford had sent warning signals, but some were unable to hear those warnings until the music stopped. We are not bulletproof to world markets or advanced technological advancements in Alberta. And it has escaped no ones notice that the calvary failed to ride in to rescue or assist when the wagons were circled. ( Albertans will have the memory of an elephant on this issue as we know very well that revenge is a dish best served cold.) Ft. Mac fire, oil collapse, Prince of Wales Hotel and Waterton Park set ablaze. Lord knows what other betrayals could be catalogued here. Who has been in the ring every moment fighting for this province like a tiger? Rachel Notley. I am proud of her. An Albertan. Daughter of Grant Notley, an Albertan.
Jason Kenney is from Ontario, just like Stephen Harper.
Bloodlines matter.
Don’t count her out in a spring election. It ain’t her first rodeo. Get back in the ring Champ.

I’m sticking to same old,same old for 2019. The 5 G’s.
Guns, gold, God,girl(s), garden. Not necessarily in that order. Sprinkled with Van west side R/E on a healthy dose of fish: So far, so good. Had my last payroll check Dec 18, 1975. Onwards & upwards for 2019 my fellow blogdogs.

I hate to be one of those people that pick out one part of a blog and take it in isolation, but, I must. Your take on real estate in the People’s Republic of British Columbia is correct, with absolute precision.
It really is not as bad here in steerage as Garth proclaims, Happy New Year to all.

I lied in the previous post, I’m going to pick on 2 parts of tonight’s post. I fear Garth is correct and the political scenery is ripe for the apology PM to get re-elected and borrow, borrow, borrow us into the poor house.
Speaking of too much debt. The belief has long been Canada cannot become a Banana Republic because the country is ill suited to grow bananas. Could the climate change folks be correct and growing bananas here is inevitable?

They have done it before, and will do it again, because the women vote will determine the next PM.
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Trudeau is a “ pretty boy” and has a good photo portfolio.
Millenials read Facebook and twitter and do not,pay attention to real news.
The women( millenials) will vote for,the pretty boy and ignore the issues as they are not aware
That is my opinion after speaking to a number of professional female millenials.
God forbid.
( by the way, I am a woman, but I do follow the news,not on Facebook but real investigative news.
My only vice is Garth Turners twitter blog, which is remarkable, witty and backed by data.
T2 will get in again, unfortunately. But I would love to be wrong

hi garth,
I agreed with most of what you said. there will be no recession. Some obstacles yes: trade war, % rates and extreme debt levels but no big deal; however I believe the correction will continue. it may go up another 1000-2000 points then drop further than today . the volatility in news and trump will influence the logarithms sell points into trading.

we will hit new lows within the 1st quarter.
with elections nov 2019 more political designs to get votes…less tax or tariff money going to the wall. the trump party will be implicated into using tax payers to favor select construction companies .

overall by December 2019 we will be higher than current levels in all indexes because nothing currently with catalase a recession

I agree with joe post 55 . you’ve been calling real estate correction for so long . I just accept the fact that homes have reached cult status .
you are wrong in this instance…not that it it insanely expensive . but prices dropping in lower mainland. it is still a big money drain but people love it…caress it / house porn

All found guilty or have plead guilty or are currently under federal indictment. Of course this list does not include Individual 1. Yet.

Additionally, while the investigation has cost millions it actually is proving to be profitable for the US. Fines and forfeitures show that Mueller’s investigation had acquired somewhere between $26 million and $42 million worth of revenue for the federal treasury.

The highest cost of the investigation I could find is 26 million. And that is under dispute.

We need top stop being so mendacious when “reporting” our little nuggets of info from Twitter/Facebook.

Happy New Year to all. I am no fan of the Conservatives. I am a professional, well educated female and I don’t respect the type of people that constantly push their extreme right wing agenda about economics onto other citizens. In my view, Harper was not at all a good Prime Minister. The Conservative Party merely represents “ welfare for the rich”. I’m not NDP in any way, and I will not vote NDP federally, but I just will never vote for the Conservatives either. I’m tired also of listening to the whiny Albertans and Jason Kenny. He is another politician who has not done a satisfactory job in previous assignments, and he is surrounded by sleazy lobbyists who are greedy. All Canadians have paid taxes that have also supported Alberta’s oil industries.

Inflation is caused by the creation of the official currency via the printing press or making loans of all types. It isn’t caused by working people trying to get properly paid for their work.

Nope. Wage demands create price increases and are a major contributing factor to inflation, along with currency devaluation (raising consumer prices), trade barriers/tariffs and energy prices. The money supply has little to do with short-term core inflation. The CB’s main job, in fact, is to battle rising living costs, which is why rates rise in an expanding economy. – Garth

BLOOD RED VEST-WITH A BROKEN MAPLE LEAF!
Prior to submitting this article for consideration, I ran it by my 94 year old mother, expecting the usual pat on the head and “don’t make waves son, leave it alone”, I was big time wrong. In addition to the following concerns, she added a few of her own.
(1) Policing, or should I say lack of policing. I feel there is a long brewing dissent bubbling within the front line rank and file police officers. Handcuffed by political correctness, along with the lack of support from their boot licking senior commanding officers, looking for a political appointment upon retirement. And let’s not forget the edgy media journalists who are more interested in an agenda of self promotion than fair unbiased reporting. Sooner or later there will be a revolt. It is just a matter of time.
(2) There is an ill wind blowing out in Alberta. The oil sands, the life blood of the Province have been, deep sixed and all but forgotten. Come spring, you can expect a huge and I mean a huge caravan of Alberta Truckers, loaded with oil, all heading for Parliament Hill. I suspect some will be coming home empty.
(3) Along the way, they will be joined by members of the First Nations, again all but forgotten brothers who will be leaving the reserves in droves to pitch their tents on the front lawn on Parliament Hill.
(4) Military Veterans, who have been gutted and long forgotten by their political masters bunkered down in Ottawa. They will be looking at their calendars and collectively come to the realization that time is running out for them and their families, it’s now or never. They will be running towards the sound of gun fire not away. These veterans are serious people with long standing grudges.
(5) Senior Citizens, will come to the realization that there is a far better quality of life to be had in jail, better food, better medical care, better everything. Someone checking to see if you are okay every 15 minutes. Being poor and without any money, your fellow cons will leave you alone, might even chat you up, call you mom or dad. A failed break and enter, a perceived racist comment, and jail (home, sweet home) here I come.
(6) It will take some time, the seeds have been planted, highly secretive, well financed, vigilante groups will form, supported by the disillusioned rank and file police officers, military veterans, first nation warriors and a whole lot of, Joe-6-pack citizens, all sick and tired of the B.S. You heard it first whispered here. Terrorists, murderers, drug dealers, rapists, gang bangers, child molesters, etc, will be reported missing, file opened and forgotten.
(7) Compassion fatigue. People are sick and tired of looking out for the under dog, tired of people claiming to be victims and being given more free stuff just to shut them up and vote the givers way. Tired of suffocating taxes to support the takers. Tired of falling behind year after year, tired of the heart wrenching feeling of failure, when they look into their family’s eyes.
(8) The totally disillusioned individuals, who join the Alberta trucker caravan, will all be wearing BLOOD RED VESTS, with a broken white maple leaf on the back. Message, listen up, we are sick and tired, we will no longer be running away from the sound of gun fire, collectively, moving forward, we will all be running towards it.
In the land of universal deceit, telling the truth can be a revolutionary act. You can trust me as the teller of truth in the land of gypsies, tramps, and thieves.

Agree on everything except Trump. There is no competition for miles so expect a second term. The talk of impeachment is just a tool of criticism and nothing more. The investigations are noise.

Bernier is just a sore loser and trying to ruin the conservatives for some personal reasons. It’s pathetic….and so is his BS platform. Anyone who doesn’t like Justin or Jagmeet and votes for Bernier’s party is an idiot with a lost vote. Strategic voting is very powerful and a necessity. Anyone over, say 20, who hasn’t learned that yet is again, an idiot.

The first thing any elected Pm should do is sit down open the books and see where Canadas bread is buttered. Oh, the oil patch contributed $400B to the country and kept Quebec in here. Hey maybe we should enact some policies to help those guys out.

On Oct 19 the fate of your country will be decided. This isn’t like T1 yrs. The country is in far more debt and there isn’t enough resilience to have to spend 5 yrs or more correcting a govts folly. There is nothing extra to tackle a huge debt. It will be then with us forever just like Ontario.

Garth has already said he under 30% Canadian weighting, probably going lower. If that’s note a vote of non-confidence I don’t know what is.

Don’t normally post twice, but cannot resist taking the bait on ‘Trump is toast.’ Must be the late night I had.

Fasten your seat belt on Trump. The indictments are about to come down. This month! For those out there disgusted by the lengths to which Democrats have gone to secure their hold on power these past two years it is going to be quite the show. And maybe some of the military industrial complex types will be taken down as well. Love him or hate him, Trump is not one to back down from these people. He plays to win. That happens to be just the ‘show’ that americans have been waiting for…. They’ve been so pissed off for so long at both parties that they just want to sit back, pop the popcorn and watch the slugfest unfold. I see Trump having a spectacular year and rising in popularity polls.

Traditionally speaking, any Liberal leader who loses an election, steps down as leader… even possibly out of politics altogether (admittedly, T2 may be a bit young to include the second part of my statement)

In 2019, let’s resolve to get past this notion that if the party member that you voted for didn’t get elected, it somehow means that you LOST. I’m sure that our host here, in his time as an elected MP, never turned away a constituent, even if that person voted for a different party in the election.

In fact, one could well make the case he got ‘turfed’ for trying to do exactly that.

Elected representatives in this country represent ALL of their constituents, with respect to constitutional rights and obligations, and as an electorate, we share a consensus on the overwhelming majority of issues.

When you take that into perspective, you realize that those who keep harping on ‘differences’ between one party or another, stoking grievances, are worthless charlatans and snake-oil salesmen (and women), interested only in exploiting your vote, and your tax dollars for their own personal gain.

They do this in their own interests, NOT because they feel any sense of duty to this country, its people, or their constituents.

If your candidate doesn’t get elected, it doesn’t mean that you’ve LOST. It means that you may only get 80% of what you wanted, and that’s OK. The politicians that claim to give you “100% of what ‘you’ want” are dictators.

@#74 Ironsiren
Yawn. A very boring video unless you were there?
The point of the video was?
A whole 340 views since posted in 2012 was it?
Until I wasted 30 secs of my life I’ll never get back.
Now?
341 views, 99% from the participants themselves…?

#38 KLNR, trolling for Groper and his Trollettes….much? Post a picture of your Mom with a sack over her head being stoned for singing , and a knife at her throat while your gay brother is being thrown off a rooftop above the square where they’re auctioning off your daughter, and then tell us what the opposition has in store and why you support that horror, because today all those things are happening on the fringes of our little bubble of civilization and democracy, being chipped away by fanatics like Trudeau. Freedom isn’t free and there’s lots of globalist wankers who will take it away from you if enough people like yourselves aren’t prepared to speak out against the loss of it. People had to fight and bleed so that trolls like yourself could say stupid things on the internet. Think about it.
===========================
Oh for god’s sake, man. Don’t be so full of yourself!
KLNR wasn’t trolling you; a real troll would simply have asked why on earth you wanted to start 2019 by going off your meds again…

Hi #132: I’m not an Alberta Dipper. I’m a BC social conservative. I took a test to see what my political stance actually is as I’m so not impressed with the national/provincial conservatives. I like Rachel Notley, though. She’s honest and she works hard. The Alberta Conservatives and their lobbyists and hangers on types are not for me.

In 2019’s federal election Canadians are about to get a lesson in Math.

There are actually two (quite impossible to swallow) lessons:
1. Voting does not affect the arithmetic of promises: No matter who was voted during the expansion, the promises of more piled on; no matter who will be voted now, diminishing returns have already kicked in. We vote scapegoats at this point, essentially.
2. Voting does not affect The Laws of Thermodynamics: Energy usage is what makes the world go round (“Teh Economy”), by way of promises of more, AKA trust that the future will return more Energy on the Energy invested in pick your narrative. No one invests to get less.

A future of less is called Depression for a very good reason, and 2019 is about to continue what 2018 has started.

I am a professional, well educated female and I don’t respect the type of people that constantly push their extreme right wing agenda about economics onto other citizens.
———————————

Right wing agenda?
Like balancing a federal budget?
Deficit financing during recessions as opposed to during economic good times?
Living within ones means?
Responsible development of Canada’s resources?
Free trade within your own country?
Supporting the other regions of your own country, rather than supporting other countries that have regimes that stone women, and gay folks to death?

So you then support
the intersection of sex and gender with other identity factors’, with regards to resource projects?

The 358 references to ‘gender’ in the last federal budget.

Huh!

If you are an example of a professional and well educated female in Canada , who characterizes basic fundamentals of economics as right wing agendas well Canada is truly screwed.

Tell me, are you one of the female members of Trudeau’s cabinet? Qualified, because you happen to identify as a woman rather than through any actual qualifications for the role?

Well if New Years Eve in Toronto was any indication with crime that will only get worse, it might be a good idea for a reset of priorities, and get the hell out while you still can. You wouldn’t want to be left behind in the stampede out of Dodge for greener pastures.

#117 Maxima on 01.01.19 at 7:47 am
Happy New Year to all. I am no fan of the Conservatives. I am a professional, well educated female and I don’t respect the type of people that constantly push their extreme right wing agenda about economics onto other citizens.

Aren’t we pretty much guaranteed to get a PM that the majority doesn’t support? Sure, 2/3 of people don’t support Trudeau, but it feels weird to hold that against him when the same is (more or less) true for Scheer.

#134 Smartalox on 01.01.19 at 11:38 am
If your candidate doesn’t get elected, it doesn’t mean that you’ve LOST. It means that you may only get 80% of what you wanted, and that’s OK. The politicians that claim to give you “100% of what ‘you’ want” are dictators.
————————————————————
Damn straight and I’d add that if your MPP/MLA etc and MP really want to keep their sweet tax payer funded job they’ll pay attention to what constituents say – calls or write ins to their office, etc get logged and whether you voted for them or not, the smart ones pay attention to the way the wind blows…

Yes, there will be more volatility ahead in this new year. Is that a good thing or bad? That depends on how you see it. One good strategy is to just ignore it and soldier on, it’s not like such a thing has never happened before. Another is to be like a fast acting governor, buying stocks or ETFs on low days and selling them on high days. Not a bad idea if you are willing to commit the time and effort.

HNY: Yes, Happy New Year as well as the natural gas ETF. If it goes below $12, something not out of the question giving recent volatility, I may buy back some of what I sold last year. Again, like the fast acting governor.

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The views expressed are those of the author, Garth Turner, a Raymond James Financial Advisor, and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. It is provided as a general source of information only and should not be considered to be personal investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investors considering any investment should consult with their Investment Advisor to ensure that it is suitable for the investor's circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment decision. The information contained in this blog was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. Raymond James Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.