Andrew Cogliano's final 21 games of the 09-10 season look much better than the rest of his year. In March and April, he went 21gp, 5-10-15 +3 and saw his shooting percentage improve to 13.5 (his career shooting percentage entering this past season was almost 17%). Previous to that, he looked pretty much lost (61gp, 5-8-13). Did he turn a corner?

Having been a fan of bad clubs over the years (1970's Expos before they developed all the kids, Oilers after their Stanleys) it is pretty clear to me that bad teams flush good young players because they believe these kids aren't developing. Sometimes it is true, other times the young player finds a role on a properly managed team and flourishes in his new town.

Andrew Cogliano is a college man, trained at the University of Michigan. He signed after two college seasons (age 20) and the Oilers called him "Marchant with hands." That fall, in the pre-season he got a chance to play with against NHL competition and drew solid verbal from coach MacTavish: "I thought for his first NHL game he had a good accounting for himself. He was instrumental in the winning goal." 21 games into his rookie NHL season, and Cogliano was third in rookie scoring among the league's 30 teams. 21gp, 4-9-13 and a shooting percentage of 15.4 for the first 6 weeks of his big league career.

There were some negatives. He was poor in the faceoff circle, he wasn't adjusting as quickly as hoped, and he could never establish himself as a top 6 forward despite mediocre competition for the skill minutes. In his first two NHL seasons he managed to score 36 goals. In the last decade, two-season totals from NHL newcomers include Mike Comrie (41), Jarret Stoll (32), Sam Gagner (29), Ales Hemsky (18), Jason Chimera (18), Shawn Horcoff (17). Cogliano was scoring goals and posting points, but he was also using up a lot of at-bats in order to deliver the numbers. He was not an efficient offensive player.

Last summer the Oilers traded Cogliano to Ottawa, but it didn't take. Cogliano arrived in training camp with a new head coach, a fresh start and an excellent attitude (his quotes during the period July-Sept 2009 are a top drawer example of the right thing to say). His 2009-10 season was, to say the least, trying. He played much of the season with subpar (and worse) linemates and spent enormous amounts of time accomplishing very little (example: he went 8gp, 0-0-0 -3 in one period during February, and that was during a time when the team went 5-3) offensively.

His stats line looked like this:

Boxcars: 82gp, 10-18-28

Shots: 139

Plus Minus: -5

Corsi (Rel): 1.5 (6th among F's)

GF/GA ON: 41-46

5x5/60: 1.39 (7th among F's)

5x4/60: 2.55 (10th among F's)

Quality of Competition: 7th toughest among F's

Quality of Teammates: 4th best among F's

FO %: 43% in 379 FO's

Offensive Zone Start FO %: 49.1 (3rd easiest among F's)

Cap Hit: $1,133,333 (RFA)

What do these numbers tell us? Well, in fairly calm waters he didn't deliver enough offense to earn top 6 minutes. The Oilers cut loose 4 forwards with better 5x5/60 minutes numbers and they played him a ton at center despite evidence he was not among the top 4 players at that position.

Most frustrating of all was a quote in an Edmonton Journal article by Jim Matheson in which the young center balks at being compared to Todd Marchant. Cogliano: "I almost scored 20 goals my first two years where I didn't have a major role. I've always put up numbers. And if I hadn't put up any in my first year, then maybe I'd be really worried. Maybe I'd switch my game ... for me, it's a matter of sticking with the mindset I can be a top-six player."

Andrew Cogliano didn't establish himself as a top 6 forward when the competition included names like Robert Nilsson, Ryan Potulny and Patrick O'Sullivan. Do we believe he'll have more success now that his competition includes Taylor Hall, Magnus Pääjärvi and Jordan Eberle?

I remain a fan of Andrew Cogliano. His wonderful speed should be effective on offense and on defense (forecheck and penalty kill). However, he was making the same mistakes (cross ice pass 6 feet in front of his own net that resulted in a turnover in a game versus the Canucks March 23) late this season as he was making as a rookie, and the "Marchant with hands" nickname has failed at both ends.

Sometimes a player reaches restricted free agency with three years experience. Other times, a player arrives at that place with one year's experience three times. I never thought I'd be saying that about Andrew Cogliano. In the same Matheson article quoted above, Cogliano also said he might adjust his style to focus on a more complete game: "maybe when I'm older, if my career doesn't take the path I want it to take."

Are we there yet?

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There is no way that Cogs can break into the top 6 on this team going forward unless there's some serious disappointments from the young 'uns, so is it more likely that he makes himself a useful bottom 6 player (maybe play him on the wing with Magnus PI and a defensively competent centre against the dregs?) or that he's traded for one? That's the question.

My take is that Cogliano is exceptionally gifted from a physical perspective, but not that bright mentally. He seems like the sort of player that got to the NHL by being a better athlete.

Then he's tasked to completely overhaul the way he's been playing for his entire life and forced to learn the two-way game. On a good depth team (which includes NHL goalies) maybe you can let those guys do their thing because their plusses outweigh their negatives. However, on the 09-10 Oilers everybody had to chip in both ways.

As a result you get what we saw, an athlete who plays on instinct being forced to think - the worst thing you can ask those types to do (maybe Gilbert was in that mix as well). Of course the result is destroyed confidence, which is harder for instinct-led athletes to deal with.

Then it might just be that Cogliano needs to be surrounded by competent NHL players, which he didn't have for most of last year. Guys who can think the game enough to put themselves in the right position. Guys who can execute the sweet breakout passes players like Cogliano eat up.

Bottom line is I'd hate to see us get rid of him. Contrary to what some here will think, I believe he'll be alot better than what he's shown so far. And I have to say, as much as the fan boys here want it to be, with 3 years NHL experience he's NOT going get his butt kicked by a bunch of 18 year-old rookies.

I can say I agree with on Cogliano. If the Oilers want to develop the young talent some of the rookies will be in the minors. But it has been clear that Tambo has been trying to trade him, offseason,trade deadline and draft. I look at it as the Oilers have made up their minds.

I don't see Cogliano having anywhere near an easy time of getting into our top six given who is here, and for that reason, he's either going to have to adjust his game, or he's going to have to get used to being in trade rumors. As it stands, he could be a really good 3rd liner. And I agree that while the "Marchant with Hands" is a pretty flattering moniker, he has a lot way to come on the defensive end of things to be compared to Marchant in that way. But I do think that he's enough of a danger (uh, in a good way) to have that upside that Marchant couldn't quite put together, even from the 3rd line.

I'm a fan of Cogliano's. I think that one day he WILL get it, I hope it's soon but with quotes like the one from the end of the article I wonder if he doesnt have to be broken down before he can be rebuilt. My only fear is that he becomes the next Patty O'Sullivan.

I wish Cogs was around when Dvorak was still an Oiler. Not because of his stone hands, but he really showed how to use your speed to carry the puck out and into the offensive zone. He would've been an excellent winger for Cogs, IMO. Who knows...maybe they end up trading him to Florida and I get to see if I'm right.

As per Cogs - The kid might need a coach that he respects. I would bet that he was put off by the smell of OTCs Onion last year and just couldn't buy into the rah rah of it all. Also, lets nor forget how frequently he was lined up with Moreau.

Great article LT. I wish the comparisons between Cogliano and Marchant extended beyond just speed. When I was a kid I absolutely loved Marchant even though it was painful to see him try to score on one his many breakaways. Like many others, I was sad when Number 26 suited up for the Blue Jackets and I always cheer for him when watching an Anaheim game. I've even read some articles that suggestd he was in the running for the "C" in Anaheim with Niedermayers departure. Anyways, point is, I'm slightly bothered that Cogliano might not see value in a Career like Marchants.

I just don't think the OTC knew what to do with Cogliano for most of the season. He looked lost trying to figure out new roles, linemates, the Captain on his left wing not passing the puck. Jeez. It is a recipe for a tough season and the appearance of a lack of development. Some young players can play through a season like the team as a whole had, but not many. I don't think we know what we have with 13 based on last season. Giving up on him could just compound the mistakes and make management look foolish.

There was a quote from Renney after the Smac signing that the focus this year will be on development (in contradistinction from winning, I assume). Is it possible, LT, that Cogs finally stops repeating his rookie year and starts to develop now? Is Renney's quote a joke/meaningless (after all, it was in reference to turning Smac into a player)? Has the organization already gone all 'Riley Nash' on Cogs and taken their disapproval to irrational levels and so will trade him at all costs?

Everything you know about Cogliano is neatly summed up by what happened when he was paired in college with Chad Kolarik and Chris Summers at the University of Michigan. For those who don't know Kolarik and Summers, a defenceman in Phoenix's system, could both flat out fly. Cogs looked all world when playing with those two guys. He hit the holes the other guys created. That is important to remember, he was better coming late.

We saw some of Cogs natural game again in his first year in the NHL. He scored some very pretty goals. In most cases he was coming late. In nearly all he was in close.

Cogs simply needs to be put where he can succeed, playing with great players who one way or another open up the ice so he can exploit. What I am trying to say is that he is a goal scorer not a checker, not a passer, not a faceoff man. Just a goal scorer with a unique niche. He comes late, gets close, and uses his speed to make sure he is wide open.

He has zero chance of being Todd Marchant, with or without hands. Defence is not his thing. He could, however, be something very special if the Oilers would finally realize that you can't make a player something he isn't.

I still think injuries aside the main reason Marc Pouliot ended up disappointing is that they kept trying to turn him into Guy Carbonneau. Same problem here except it is Todd Marchant V2 they want. Let this kid do what he does better than nearly anyone in the NHL or trade him to somebody who will. It is really that simple.

It seems to me that Cogliano has become pretty much a greased-lightning tweener. My hope is the new Oiler's coaching staff, (Quinnless at least) see something in him worth saving and developing. Given they have tried to trade him non-stop for the last two years tells me the Oilers can't solve him so they want jettison him in the worst way. Quinn to his discredit sentenced Cogs to the fourth line with fourth line minutes. It looked to me as if Quinn quit on several young players and we should not be surprised. He has been pretty much a veteran's-only coach for a long time now. What exactly did the Oiler brass expect? One shot at the World Juniors proves what exactly?

I hope Renney and his staff give Cogs a realistic opportunity to play and earn more minutes if he can. He'll either find a niche for himself on the Oil or he'll be shown the door. I'd give the kid one more year or at least to the trade deadline to prove his stuff.

Cogs has really made me scratch my head. I like the kid a lot, even going so far as to pick him for my hero last season. He disapointed, but for the longest time I found a way to blame that on the coaches for the way he was being used in a fourth-line role. He's not a checker, and I couldn't for the life of me figure out why the coaching staff would banish him to the bottom six.

The thing is, deep down it always nagged at me; maybe the coaching staff was right. Maybe they saw the great failing in Andrew that I couldn't, or wouldn't, see.

Cheechoo put up fantastic numbers on the top line for the Sharks, but after the trade where he was asked to do things on his own, he was completely lost. I have always secretly wondered if the same thing might be true of Cogliano - fantastically oportunistic with gifted linemates, but not capable of creating anything on his own. Capable of sustaining someone else's magic, but lacking the ability to produce any internally. If that truly is the case, then I'm sad to say that the best he can ever be is a decent injury call-up for the top six.

I think the coaching staff saw that and was desparately trying to force Cogliano to learn how to play the game of hockey; the complete game that MacT always preached; be the complete player that Quinn wanted to roll out line after line unmatched. Sadly, I don't know if he's capable of learning that. It looks like the coaches have come to the conclusion that if he's going to figure it out, it might be looking to take longer than they're prepared to wait. I guess that's why Cogliano's name materializes whispered in every trade rumour. The kid has tools, but they may all be superficial. He's got glitz and flash and charisma and gunpowder, but underneath all that . . .

Every year at Easter, Andrew, I got a big chocolate Easter egg. Every year it looked so good and I knew that if it were as big and promising as it seemed, I'd have enough chocolate to satisfy every craving until Halloween. But every year (after the first one), I knew what I'd find when I bit into it. It was never able to deliver what it promised. I wish you were more substantial than that egg, Andrew, but I fear you may be the same thing all over again.

Hey LT, This is completely off topic but I can not find any information on this anywhere. We have been discussing what would happen if a team did not reach the cap floor? What are the penalties associated with this? If you know or know someone who does could you get the information to me? Thanks in advance.

Everything you know about Cogliano is neatly summed up by what happened when he was paired in college with Chad Kolarik and Chris Summers at the University of Michigan. For those who don't know Kolarik and Summers, a defenceman in Phoenix's system, could both flat out fly. Cogs looked all world when playing with those two guys. He hit the holes the other guys created. That is important to remember, he was better coming late.

We saw some of Cogs natural game again in his first year in the NHL. He scored some very pretty goals. In most cases he was coming late. In nearly all he was in close.

Cogs simply needs to be put where he can succeed, playing with great players who one way or another open up the ice so he can exploit. What I am trying to say is that he is a goal scorer not a checker, not a passer, not a faceoff man. Just a goal scorer with a unique niche. He comes late, gets close, and uses his speed to make sure he is wide open.

He has zero chance of being Todd Marchant, with or without hands. Defence is not his thing. He could, however, be something very special if the Oilers would finally realize that you can't make a player something he isn't.

I still think injuries aside the main reason Marc Pouliot ended up disappointing is that they kept trying to turn him into Guy Carbonneau. Same problem here except it is Todd Marchant V2 they want. Let this kid do what he does better than nearly anyone in the NHL or trade him to somebody who will. It is really that simple.

An odd coincidence, I think I saw Cogliano on the street I'm living on today for the second time this week. (I live in Toronto.) You lucky folks in Edmonton might run into players from time to time, but it's very rare in this big city, especially at random in my quiet neighbourhood, and especially an Oiler.

If it was him, he looked absolutely ripped in a t-shirt and shorts. He is one fit man.

Everything you know about Cogliano is neatly summed up by what happened when he was paired in college with Chad Kolarik and Chris Summers at the University of Michigan. For those who don't know Kolarik and Summers, a defenceman in Phoenix's system, could both flat out fly. Cogs looked all world when playing with those two guys. He hit the holes the other guys created. That is important to remember, he was better coming late.

We saw some of Cogs natural game again in his first year in the NHL. He scored some very pretty goals. In most cases he was coming late. In nearly all he was in close.

Cogs simply needs to be put where he can succeed, playing with great players who one way or another open up the ice so he can exploit. What I am trying to say is that he is a goal scorer not a checker, not a passer, not a faceoff man. Just a goal scorer with a unique niche. He comes late, gets close, and uses his speed to make sure he is wide open.

He has zero chance of being Todd Marchant, with or without hands. Defence is not his thing. He could, however, be something very special if the Oilers would finally realize that you can't make a player something he isn't.

I still think injuries aside the main reason Marc Pouliot ended up disappointing is that they kept trying to turn him into Guy Carbonneau. Same problem here except it is Todd Marchant V2 they want. Let this kid do what he does better than nearly anyone in the NHL or trade him to somebody who will. It is really that simple.

Good info on AC ..thanks
Steve Smith's interview the other day was saying how you have to put players into positions in which they can suceed.The Oilers have not done a good job of this lately IMO. Lets hope that the OTC all think like Steve!

It's obvious Tambo has been trying to shop Cogs this summer, hoping someone will overpay for flashes of brilliance that he demonstrated with a series of overtime goals 2.5 years ago. Nobody bit.

Players are like stocks. The smart money buys low and sells high. They should put Cogs on a line with Hemsky and Gagner to start the year, let him build up some points, and then sell him to a rube like Garth Snow.

I too really like Cogs, but I am afraid there is no position here for him, unless he wants to change his game and mindset. 3rd liner checker. Maybe success came too quick for him, although some of it is coaching, for sure. Keep him around, hope he plays well and brings his stock up, and trade him. Or if the kids need time in the minors,you can plug the hole with him. All in all,his career would be best served in a better situation.

I have liked Cogs since he became a permanent fixture in the Oilers lineup. He has blazing speed and has some scoring touch..... when he has some decent linemates. I was continually pissed off and Quin last year as he would constantly put Cogs with "Hands of Stone" Moreau. I thought it was a complete waste of young talent and I was more or less proved right when finally he was moved on a line with Brule and Penner and that line became our best line combo all year.

I and most others compare Cogs to Gags and Nilson to compare skill sets because they all made the squad the same year and even played together for stretches. I always felt all last year that Cogs didn't get the same opportunities Gags and Nilson would get until late last year. The mistake I made when looking at Cogs is that you can't just look at a player in a vacuum or as a small sample set (comparing to Gags and Nilson) when evaluating where or if a player fits into the future plans of the club. You must look at the whole team to determine the worth of each individual to your orginization.

When you look at last years team as a whole the most glaring issue that needed to be addressed is size. Gags, Cogs, Nilson, POS, and Brule are all undersized forwards. There is nothing wrong with having undersized forwards in you lineup... every team has them (except maybe Philly) but it was very evident we had too many of them. This summer has already seen the purging of the small forward from the lineup. Nilson and POS out. However now we have a situation where we may be adding another into the mix with Eberle. It then comes down to how many small forwards are you willing to move forward with and as much as I love what Cogs brings to the table and the fact I think in the right situation he will have much more to offer I think he again finds himself at the bottom of the list of small forwards and is why the Oilers have continually shopped his services elsewhere.

Is there any way all these juvenile 'First!' posters can be instantly banned from ON? There's really no better way to proclaim "this discussion thread will be full of idiots".

Another great read LT. I really hope the guy sees the light, but it's really gonna depend on either bodies moving out or Tambs sticking to his guns about giving the kids some time in the minors.

Strangely one of the architects of this site (Wanye) has been known to do this as well. Does it really harm you? There are going to be idiots and trolls everywhere. If you make a point of showing them that it bugs you it only makes them stronger.

Cogliano will have his best years coming up . He will do better this season . Unfortuneately ,that still leaves us too many diminutive forwards to go forward with , and some good ones will be let go . Cogs reminds me a lot of Lombardi that the Flames finally let go .

Do you chance letting him go elsewhere , or wait at least another season or two seeing him mature more ? Not an easy decision if he starts to get a scoring touch going along with his expected maturing .

I wonder if we would be having this conversation about Gagner if Cogliano had gotten the push in terms of icetime and linemates instead of Sam.

Both guys started off the season down the depth chart. Their production was similar in the first 6 games. Gagner had 3 points and Cogliano had 4. Starting in game 7 however Gagner went on a nice point streak and it happened to be with Penner and Hemsky. Cogliano was playing with Moreau and Stortini and barely put up any points in the next 15 games.

If the Oilers are interested in moving Cogliano as it looks like he need favourable linemates and matchups to produce (like almost all of the Oilers forwards.) then they should give him that kind of icetime to start the season.

I agree with you to a point. Except that it is not all about scoring. When Brule doesn't score he hits. When Cogs doesn't score he......
If Cogs finds a way to fill in the blank then he can move his way past some of the other small guys on the depth chart.

I agree with you to a point. Except that it is not all about scoring. When Brule doesn't score he hits. When Cogs doesn't score he......
If Cogs finds a way to fill in the blank then he can move his way past some of the other small guys on the depth chart.

I was frustrated with Cogliano a lot last year. That interview with Matheson really stood out for me as a big part of the problem. In the same article they asked Marchant about Cogliano's balk and Marchant said, "Hey, I've played in the NHL for almost 15 years..."

It seemed to me that Cogliano was one of the guys Quinn was frustrated with...someone who said he should be a top-six guy, but wouldn't go out and prove it. Say what you want about Nilsson, but just like Gagner, when put on the fourth line, he tried his hardest, had a couple good games in a row and got moved up. When Cogliano was put with Moreau and Pisani, he went in the opposite direction.

I honestly worry with Cogliano that he fears excelling in a checking role, lest he be typecast. And that's just not a good mindset. I imagine if the Oilers need to open up a roster spot for one of the kids, #13 has to be the guy on the chopping block.

Andrew Cogliano didn't establish himself as a top 6 forward when the competition included names like Robert Nilsson, Ryan Potulny and Patrick O'Sullivan. Do we believe he'll have more success now that his competition includes Taylor Hall, Magnus Pääjärvi and Jordan Eberle?

Perfectly stated. Fans can argue that Cogliano wasn't given enough PP time, or top six minutes. Fans can argue that Cogliano was used incorrectly by two completely different coaching staffs; that his linemates weren't the right calibure/style of player, and so on and so on... Hogwash! It's up to the player to establish himself. The Oilers have given Cogliano nothing but opportunity after opportunity. In Andrew's draft class, only two first rounders have played more games: Crosby, and Kopitar. I can't even imagine how many young players would have killed to have that many at bats with an NHL franchise. (I also wonder how many of those young players would have accomplished more given the same chance)

Everything you know about Cogliano is neatly summed up by what happened when he was paired in college with Chad Kolarik and Chris Summers at the University of Michigan. For those who don't know Kolarik and Summers, a defenceman in Phoenix's system, could both flat out fly. Cogs looked all world when playing with those two guys. He hit the holes the other guys created. That is important to remember, he was better coming late.

We saw some of Cogs natural game again in his first year in the NHL. He scored some very pretty goals. In most cases he was coming late. In nearly all he was in close.

Cogs simply needs to be put where he can succeed, playing with great players who one way or another open up the ice so he can exploit. What I am trying to say is that he is a goal scorer not a checker, not a passer, not a faceoff man. Just a goal scorer with a unique niche. He comes late, gets close, and uses his speed to make sure he is wide open.

He has zero chance of being Todd Marchant, with or without hands. Defence is not his thing. He could, however, be something very special if the Oilers would finally realize that you can't make a player something he isn't.

I still think injuries aside the main reason Marc Pouliot ended up disappointing is that they kept trying to turn him into Guy Carbonneau. Same problem here except it is Todd Marchant V2 they want. Let this kid do what he does better than nearly anyone in the NHL or trade him to somebody who will. It is really that simple.

I like your comment, even if I disagree with some of the conclusions. The Pouliot/Carbonneau comparison was something I was thinking about as well. While these younger players have some nice skils that could translate into points, neither is currently much of a difference maker at the NHL level. The old line about being able to teach guys to check, but not be creative offensively has a lot of truth to it. I fear that Pouliot will fade away as another fringe, mediocre NHL player, but, Cogliano did show some signs of improvement last year in his willingness to battle and go to the tough areas on the ice, so I have some hope for him.

Why Pouliot and Cogliano would be offended by comparisons to reliable veterans like Carbonneau and Marchant tells you a lot about their sense of entitlement. By now they should realize that being an offensive star at a young age and being drafted in the first round is not a guarantee you will be playing in the NHL 10 years later.

The Oilers (and any other team) would love to have a Marchant or Carbonneau in their prime, but nobody is beating down the door to snatch up any of these young, supposed "top six" offensive stars, are they?

MacT wouldn't even play Pouliot at 3C to give him at shot at being Carbo. Also didn't give Pouliot a sniff in the top 6. Just another players development shafted because of MacT's inability to put players in the position to succeed.

Cogliano is still an improving youngster that has yet to find or hit his prime yet . Do you intend on gutting these youngster every three years ? Brule and Gagner just starting to turn the corner as well . Not like we have a lot to replace for anyone better for next season or two . Some of you seem to think this is as good as Cogliano is ever going to get , which seems rather premature to make that assumption .