Perry has made a little surge to take a 51-38 lead (MoE 4.5). White has gone to his lowest point in the Rasmussen poll, while Perry has gone to his highest. Perry has now taken a dominant 92% lead probability in my model.

Yes, the chance of an outlier is always there, but to me this looks more like a Republican unity bounce as the Kay Bailey Hutchison and Debra Medina voters come home.