Monday, February 22, 2010

The middle of the bracket was fairly stable this week, but there were some notable changes made at the top and bottom. For the first time in over a month, there is a new face on the 1 line. Villanova dropped down to a 2 seed this week after losing at home to UConn and on the road to Pitt, and were replaced on the 1 line by Purdue. The red-hot Boilermakers extended their winning streak to nine games last week with victories at Ohio State and at home against Illinois and made the move up from the 2 line.

On the bubble, the biggest storyline was the pathetic play of a trio of teams in the A-10. The A-10 came into the week as a five-bid league, but when the smoke cleared Sunday night, it was barely hanging on to four bids. Charlotte is out this week after losing two home games, and Dayton is still on the outside looking in after losing at Duquesne on Sunday. (Can we stop answering Dayton complaints, now?) The only A-10 bubble team to survive this week was Rhode Island. Despite losing at Saint Louis, the Rams are still in because of their solid RPI (26), their easy remaining schedule, and their OOC win over Oklahoma State, which is looking better by the day. Looking ahead, we don't think Charlotte is going to win the game it has left at Rhode Island, and the 49ers could easily finish 10-6 in conference, which won't be enough for a bid. Dayton still has to play at Temple and at Richmond, which means they're probably going to finish 9-7 and on the wrong side side of the bubble. We've said for a while that talk of the A-10 getting six bids was ridiculous, and we didn't even like giving out five bids when we first did it a couple weeks ago. As the days go by, our rationale is looking more and more like reality.

The A-10's struggles, and Mississippi's removal after a two-loss week, caused us to get a little creative with our last two teams in the field. We didn't put St. Mary's back into the bracket (as most bracketologists will likely do this week) because even with a couple of decent OOC wins, we don't think there is any way the Gaels are going to get an at-large. Their resume is eerily similar to their resume last year - and that resume got them a ticket to the NIT. We also weren't ready to put San Diego State or Saint Louis in the field, and we didn't want to give the Big East a ninth bid.

That left us with two options - UConn and Minnesota. Both are in this week's bracket not only for what they did this past week, but also what they have coming up. The Huskies won at Villanova on Monday and at Rutgers on Saturday to improve to 6-8 in the Big East. (Is anyone not 6-8 in the Big East?) We love their chances to beat West Virginia in Hartford on Monday, and looking ahead, we can see them running the table and getting to 10-8. They are the best bet right now on the crowded Big East bubble, ahead of South Florida (who lost at home to St. John's on Saturday), Cincinnati (who beat UConn twice but lost two killer games this week), and Seton Hall (who has any easy schedule left but not a great resume.) Minnesota snuck in because we love the way they played against Wisconsin at home on Thursday, and because we think they have a chance to upset Purdue at home this Wednesday. Even a 1-1 week (they play at Illinois on Saturday) might be enough to keep the Gophers in the field next week, and it would set them up to go 10-8 in conference. A 10-8 finish wouldn't guarantee them a bid, but they would have a pretty decent chance of getting one heading into the Big Ten tourney.

Seed-wise, the biggest moves up this week were made by Pitt (from a 5 to a 3), Maryland (a 9 to a 7), and Oklahoma State (a 12 to a 9). The biggest drops were suffered by Wake Forest (a 3 to a 5), Georgia Tech (an 8 to a 10), and Cal (a 9 to an 11). We also had to move a couple of teams around for grouping purposes. Baylor dropped from the 7 line to an 8 and Marquette moved up from a 10 to a 9.

You really think St. Louis is that close? Obviously, they have a brutal set of games down the stretch (albeit mostly at home). I think they have to win out, but if they do, I certainly think they'd be in going into the A-10 tourney.

If Temple were to win out they would end up on the 3 line. Anything less they will be no better than a 4.

Minnesota's inclusion will probably surprise a lot of people. It was a combination of the strong week they had at home and a lack of viable options. They will need to win 3 of their last 4 to stay in the mix.

If Cal would have won both of their games this week we would have included 2 Pac-10 teams since Cal would have a decent at-large resume and we think it's a better than 50% chance that the field wins the Pac-10 tourney. Then Cal went out and lost so their at-large resume is once again in question. So right now we'd say there is about a 35% chance for 2 Pac-10 and we gotta play the odds.

is it fair to put 10 seeded Florida in home games in Jacksonville? Doesnt that punish better seeded No Iowa and Duke? Likewise Gonzaga in Spokane? I thought you had to be a 1-4 seed to get "protected." Love the work guys, just want/need clarification on protection. I know common sense never comes into play with NCAA! Thanks in advance for any answers

We anticipated having to drop G'town to the 4 line, but with Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, and Wake Forest all losing there was no better team than the Hoyas for the 3 line. They will need to win 3 of their last 4 to have any chance of staying there.

I know B101 has been a Hokie believer for a while now (and thanks for that) but what do they need to do at this point to get "lock" status? Does 9-7 lock them or will we have to get to 10-6? By the way, couldn't help but notice Jerry Palm left them out again last week. You guys are by far the best in the business. Thanks.

Hey guys love the job you're doing. Just a couple of questions for you. You currently have BYU as a 6 and Gonzaga as a 5... why? Gonzaga based on the last RPI I looked at has 1 top 50 win. BYU has 2. They have 2 bad losses to a sub-100 teams BYU has zero bad losses. Is Gonzaga's win over Wisconsin holding them at a 5? My other question. Say BYU beats SDSU and New Mexico (Going to be difficult) this week at home and Utep drops into the top 50, giving BYU 5 wins over the RPI top 50 where do you see BYU landing in next weeks bracket? Thanks again.

I usually love what you have to say about the bracket, but today I completely disagree. UConn & Minnesota I can't possibly see any reason for putting them in right now. It's way too early. IMO you're playing a what if game with both teams expecting them to finish hot & a bracket is about what's happening now

UConn lost to Providence, St Johns & Michigan

Minnesota lost to Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan & Miami

They have a combined 7 TERRIBLE losses

St Mary's worst loss is to a Portland team Minnesota lost to & San Diego St's worst losses are Pacific & Wyoming. I'd take those 2 losses over either of UConn's or Michigan's worst losses. San Diego St also has gathered up quality wins like New Mexico, UNLV, Utah St, San Diego St, Portland, Northeastern & New Mexico St

I just feel you're trying too hard this week. UConn & Minnesota should definitely be on the last 4 out list considering what the other bubble teams have done, but their losses IMO hurt them WAAAAY too much. I can't agree with them being in the bracket unless they beat more teams. Like West Virginia for UConn & Purdue for Minnesota - I'd be VERY surprised to see EITHER team win those 2 games considering how West Virginia & Purdue are playing now

Dear god, could the South bracket be more ugly? If the tourney played out this way, it would certainly be the group of death! I really like Duke this year to finally knock their first and second round loss slump and surprise a lot of people with a deep run. Towards the end of the Duke/Tech game last night, they said Sheyer, Singler, and Smith are 2nd on the list of scoring trios in the country (something like 53.7 ppg). Any idea which trio is #1? To me, Duke's glaring weakness in finally not their inside paint presence, but their lack of depth from the bench.

Regarding Florida in Jacksonville... the only seeds that are protected from "home-court disadvantages" are 1-5 seeds, and that is only in the first round. That being said, the same point you are making could be made in the committee room, and they could fudge their rules a little bit on what is "fair", but following the principles, they should actually try to put Florida in Jacksonville.

With the schedule that VT has left, 11-5 will put them in lock status. If they only end up 9-7, they will need to win 2 ACC tourney games to feel safe. Remember that "lock" status means that "this is what my teams needs to do to get in regardless of what any other team does."

At this point Gonzaga and BYU are interchangable as the last 5 and top 6. If BYU can pull off a 2-0 week they will be at worst a top 5 and could possibly sneak onto the 4 line.

PackerSmacker...You make some good points but you need to get all your wins and losses straight. UConn never lost to St. John's, and your statement that "San Diego St also has gathered up quality wins like New Mexico, UNLV, Utah St, San Diego St, Portland, Northeastern & New Mexico St" makes no sense at all and is full of mistakes.

We agree that we are taking a stretch with UConn and Minnesota, but here is our reasoning. Both teams have the opportunity to pick up big wins on their home floors and are on a bit of a hot streak. We'll entertain serious conversations about SDSU if they can win at BYU this week. It seems like deja vu with the Aztecs every year. They beat no one OOC and play well in conference, but in the end they get left out. As for St. Mary's, we think when the 2 or 3 bid stealers come out during Championship week they will end up on the last four out line (assuming they win their last 2 and lose in semis or finals of WCC tourney).

Could Minnesota really make the field without a quality road win? Did you consider all the Gophers losses to teams not in your bracket? The bubble must be really weak if Minnesota is bubble worthy. Their body of work is not very impressive. But if they do in fact upset Purdue this week, B101 will look like geniuses. In my view, Minnesota will make the NIT this year.

If Connecticut wins tonight, they will probaly find a way to get in. But if they lose, they could wind up in the NIT cause I think they will lose either at ND or SF. South Florida is a very dangerous game for UCOnn cause the Bulls seem to play up or down to the level of their opponents this year. Since UConn is a big name school, South Florida will bring it.

I like your bracket a lot better than I like the bracket over at ESPN or the AP top 25. I am tired of seeing BYU, Vanderbilt, New Mexico, and Butler rewarded for their terribly weak schedules. Temple is continually falling in the top 25 due to some in conference struggles, but they had injuries and played a very respectable out of conference schedule.

The MWC is a garbage conference that as a whole played almost no talented teams from other conferences... why are the teams in this conference getting a pass for easy scheduling?

As for UCONN being in, I completely agree. Their record isn't that great, and they lost a few bad games. There is virtually no chance of them winning the tournament, but they also beat some of the best teams in the country. They played an insanely hard schedule and shouldn't be punished for challenging themselves.

There has to be an upside to playing a challenging schedule, like still making it in the tournament with a comparatively mediocre schedule. Otherwise all the teams will wise up and schedule garbage games all year long, and college basketball won't be worth watching until the Sweet 16.

I think UConn's chances of getting to 10-8 are slim, none of their games are easy and they've been so inconsistent. 9-9 is probably the best they can hope for. If Minnesota does pull off 1-1 this week, they still have a game at Michigan who they already lost to and I don't think they'd be favored to win that game (as bad as Michigan has been). Furthermore Minnesota will probably be the six seed in the big ten tourney, setting up a second round must-win match up vs. Mich St or Ohio St. I don't like their chances.

In the end, both those bids should get eaten up anyway because at least one of Butler, Gonzaga, UNI will probably lose their tournament, and Cal, Utah St, Siena and ODU all have a shot at at-large bids should they lose their tournaments.

Do you pay any attention to head to head matchups? Cincinnati swept Connecticut and Dayton beat Gergia Tech. Yet you have Georgia Tech and Connecticut in over Cincinnati and Dayton. I guess you guys believe computers more than head to head games.

Minnesota won't finish any better than 2-2 with that schedule and will miss the tournament. When you consider all the bad losses the Gophers already have, they have no business in the bracket. At least Connecticut played a tough non conference schedule along with the tough Big East schedule. Minnesota lost to Miami and Portland in non conference. Ouch!

Hey I LOVE your bracket a whole big bunch, but could you explain how UNLV dropped to a 10 seed with wins over Louisville, BYU, San Diego State and at New Mexico? Wouldn't a 8 or 9 be more appropriate or are they being penalized for their two losses to Utah? Also, what do they have to do for the remainder of the year to guarantee a spot in the tournament?THANKS!

Why on earth is the ncaa considering expanding the field to 96? Just finding 65 deserving teams is hard enough, let alone 96. If anything, they should reduce the field to 48 but expanding the field to 96 makes no sense. This is a horrible idea by Jim Bay Hime.

Their win against Ohio State was without Evan Turner (who are a bubble team without him), and their win against Xavier was marred in controversy. Even though they're undefeated in conference play, there are 3 teams that are better than decent in the Horizon.

Head-to-head match-ups are important, but they aren't more important than big wins. Georgia Tech has four Top 50 wins compared to Dayton's two, which trumps the Flyers head-to-head win. There's no way Dayton is at-large worthy right now after theri lost at Duquesne, and with the schedule they have left, we don't see them getting a bid anytime soon either.

UConn being in the field over Cincinnati (despite a head-to-head sweep by the Bearcats) is strictly a projection. We think UConn will get to 10-8 or 9-9 in the Big East and we think Cincinnati, with their brutal schedule left, will be lucky to get to 8-10.

UNLV's second loss to Utah caused them to fall to the 10 line (it also knocked their RPI down 10 points). As long as the Rebels win their final three games (TCU, at Air Force, Wyoming), they're pretty much a lock.

If Saint Louis goes 3-1 down the stretch and gets to 12-4 in conference, they will be in pretty decent shape for a bid heading into the A-10 tournament.

Troy is in as the new Sun Belt automatic because they finished off a season sweep of MTSU last week. We're also keeping our eye on North Texas, which has won eight of its last nine.

On behalf of Flyer Nation, I am going to concede a bid as of right now. That Duquesne game was disgusting and we don't deserve to be in. I'm sick of having hope and then our own team just gives up and forgets how to run an offense. Watch now as they will somehow pull a win out of their asses @ Temple and then lose at home to UMass. That's how our season is going.

"Troy is in as the new Sun Belt automatic because they finished off a season sweep of MTSU last week. We're also keeping our eye on North Texas, which has won eight of its last nine."

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So North Texas beat Troy while losing to MT St, and Troy has to play ark st at the end....?

What happens if there is a 3 way tie between Troy / MT St and North Texas at the end of the season?

Will it come down to who goes the furthest in the conference tourney out of those three? or can another team like ark st / west kentucky / flor atl steal the one bid when the conference tourney is all said and done?

I answered the Florida/Jax question above. Coach K will be whining at the bracketing procedures already in place. Here is the bottom line: the goal to place every team in the bracket as close to home as possible. The only exception is 1-5 seeds are protected from home court disadvantages in the first round.

Lunardi is having a pretty rough year on his first-of-the-week brackets.

We're pretty confused by this Sun Belt discussion. The league is getting one bid, and that bid is going to be the winner of the conference tourney.

If Oklahoma State loses their next three games, they'll be out of the field. They'd then have to beat Nebraska at home and win two Big XII tourney games to get an at-large.

A 10-6 mark would probably be enough for Mississppi State, but they might want to win two SEC tourney games to feel safe. The fact that Mississippi has fallen so far off the bubble is definitely hurting the Bulldogs' resume. With what they have left, Mississippi State has a chance to get to 11-5, which definitely get them in.

Seton Hall needs to get to 10-8 to have any realistic chance at an at-large. If they can't get to 10-8 with the schedule they have left (Rutgers, Marquette, at Rutgers, at Providence), then they don't deserve to be in.

I am anonymous at 4:03 PM. I can't seem to log into my google account. Anyway, I was just making a joke based on the earlier post. I am actually a Lobos fan. Most sites have them as a #3 seed, as they also would be if you go by the AP poll.

Rankings mean nothing when it comes to seeding. The best example I can think of is the 2005-2006 George Washington team, who entered the top 10 in the AP poll on January 31 and remained there for the rest of the regular season, peaking at #6, which is what they were ranked when they lost early in their conference tournament. The team fell to #14 on the final poll, and ended up with an 8 seed (which, in the end, seemed to reflect the team's actual strength.)

You guys are proving (again) to be the best bracket site out there. Along with Lunardi having Purdue and Wisconsin in the same bracket, Andy Glockner has Marquette playing the 1st round in Milwaukee. His bracket has since been changed.

I am anonymous at 10:50 AM, and if you'll notice, I listed more than just New Mexico as teams with weak schedules that effectively guarantee good records.

As for New Mexico, they played a grand total of two ranked teams, neither ranked in the top 1. They split games with BYU, and beat 23rd ranked A and M. They lost to two unranked teams, and again, the best out of conference game they played was against A and M.

BYU lost to two unranked teams and I do not believe they played a single team that is currently ranked in the top 25.

What kind of weak schedule is that? How can you not have a good record with that schedule?

I don't care if Gonzaga lost to two crap teams, they also played and beat a lot of good teams. I don't care if UConn lost 11 games, they played and beat some of the best teams in the country.

Teams that schedule games worth watching shouldn't be punished for having 5 more losses than teams that schedule a bunch of community college level teams to beat up on throughout the season.

UConn has two bad losses in Michigan and Providence, but neither Michigan nor Providence are nearly as bad as Oral freaking Roberts. Not only that, but they also have wins over a BUNCH of ranked teams. If they weren't in the Big East and/or hadn't scheduled a nasty out of conference program... they'd be a lock. Instead they're barely on the bubble.

Temple scheduled Kansas, Villanova, Georgetown, and Virginia Tech. As a result, they have a few more losses than BYU and UNM. Losing to teams ranked better than you should not decrease your ranking too much, and beating teams ranked far worse than you should not result in your ranking shooting up.

"Getting taken to OT on the road against St Joseph's is not good for the resume so close to tourney time."

I'm sorry, but anyone who knows anything about Big 5 basketball is not shocked by the OT game. Look up 'Palestra magic'. I'm sure you'll find plenty of articles about the history of Big 5 basketball at the Palestra.

And 'not good for the resume' is laughable. I hope they take into account our 1 point road loss @ Georgetown if they're going to consider ridiculousness like going to OT @ the Palestra against Saint Joe's.

And saying we're having 'conference struggles' is particularly absurd. We lost @ Richmond and @ Charlotte. Two good teams, one very good team. Charlotte isn't terribly consistent, but they got up for us big time. It didn't help that our best player was playing under the bright lights and loud crowd with a severe migraine and concussion.

I'm trying to figure out how Ohio State is a 2 seed while Baylor is an 8 seed. They have the exact same record against the RPI top 50, although OSU has one more win against the RPI top 25 (all numbers per ESPN). Baylor has a slightly better record against the RPI Top 200. Neither has any losses to teams above 200 in the RPI. Baylor's overall strength of schedule is 40 spots higher than Ohio State's. I would understand if Baylor was 1-2 lines below OSU, but 6 lines?

We think a lot of emphasis will be put on what Ohio State has done with a healthy Evan Turner. Also the Buckeyes have a great chance to win out and win a share of the Big 10 title. We had Baylor on the 7 line but had to move them to an 8 for Big 12 grouping issues. It is very difficult right now to seperate Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, and Baylor. We felt that Baylor's resume was the 4th best out of that group. They could easily have the best resume out of that group should they go 2-0 this week and they will see their seed jump up to a 5/6. The order of finish in the Big 12 will have a major impact on where teams end up being seeded.

The number 1 question about brackets is why is Minnesota in the bracket? They have multiple losses to teams not in your field and a very mediocre OOC resume. Minnesota also has a very tough remaining schedule and will be fortunate to finish 2-2. Bracketology 101 made a big mistake by putting Minnesota in the field. They do not deserve a bid.

What does Marquette need to do the rest of the regular season and/or in the BE tourney to secure a bid? Also, if they win out in the regular season and win 2-3 games in the BE tourney, what do you think their highest possible seed could be?

If Georgia Tech wins their last three games (and finishes 9-7 in conference) they'll be in. If they lose at Clemson and beat BC and VT at home (and finish 8-8) they might need two ACC wins to feel completely safe.

Dayton needs to go 3-1 down the stretch and win two A-10 tourney games to be in the mix for an at-large.

If Ohio State wins out and wins the Big Ten tourney, they'd be in the mix for a 1 seed, but they'd probably end up a 2. The Buckeyes can't really improve their resume that much before the Big Ten tourney and they already have seven losses. Duke, Kansas State, and Villanova are all ahead of them right now in the race for a 1 seed.

If Marquette wins three of their last four games, they'll be in the field going into the Big East tourney. If they win one tourney game after that, they'll be safe. If they go 2-2 down the stretch, they'll have to win two Big East games to get a bid.

Matt R, Why do some people insist on putting Syracuse in the West? If they are a top 3 overall seed, the Orange should not be shipped way out west. Kentucky is closer to Syracuse than Houston, so it makes sense to put Kentucky in Syracuse and Syracuse in Houston or St. Louis.

We had Syracuse out west for the last few weeks also, when Nova was a 1 seed. In my mind, and probably in the minds of most other bracketologists, Houston vs Salt Lake City is a wash for Syracuse. Either destination is a plane ride (or a drive for the insane).

St Louis has a legitimate shot at an at large if they can continue the run that they are on. Their OOC resume is disgusting, but if they finish a 2 or 3 games better in conference than fellow A-10 bubble boys (Dayton, Charlotte, and URI) then they will be ahead in the pecking order. A lot will be riding on the A-10 tourney this year.

This is the same question asked about Florida in Jacksonville and answered twice above. Except the conference conflicts, rematch avoiding etc, the goal is to place every team in the bracket as close to home as possible, according to the principles. The only exception is 1-5 seeds are protected from home court disadvantages in the first round. All of this is in black and white: http://bit.ly/8JS6vO (the link is a pdf)

All that being said, "fair" is relative... I'm sure someone in the committee room could bring up the same point you are and move a team around if possible (although it would be against the principles), but it is more difficult that you would think to just move a team to a different region, especially in the 5-12 lines.

The other thing about BYU is that they refuse to play games on Sundays. They are limited to Syracuse or Salt Lake as Thurs/Sat regions, and since New Mexico was placed in the Syracuse region for this bracket, BYU was locked into Salt Lake City this week no matter what.

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