As best as I can tell, the Reds have 16 guys for 10 rotation spots in AA and AAA. Looking at the guys, I'm guessing Schmidt and Dennhardt will be in a bullpen somewhere. Holmberg, Corcino and Rogers would seem to be locks at AAA and Stephenson and Moscot locks at AA. I'm not sure whether Francis and Wang will stick around if they don't make the big league team and I'm unsure whether Contreras will continue starting. Tim Crabbe looks like a guy who may step forward in the bullpen, but I'm not sure if that's the plan. Mikey O'Brien is interesting. He had decent numbers at AA and he was only 23 last year, but the Yankees let him go. I think he could be a find. Josh Smith and Daniel Renken have been solid starters, but the Reds leaving them off the 40 man (and no team taking a rule 5 shot) speaks volumes. Shane Dyer and Ryan Dennick would seem to be decent choices to get another look. Not sure how it sorts out really. Anybody with any knowledge want to weigh in? (These are minor league numbers only, BTW).

In the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, teams may select any eligible player left off the major league 40-man roster or the Triple-A reserve roster of 38 players. In the Double-A phase of the draft, teams may select any eligible player left off the major league roster, the Triple-A reserve roster or the Double-A reserve roster of 37 players. In other words, a player selected in the Triple-A phase does not rank among his organization’s top 78 talents, and a Double-A selection does not rank among its top 115. In these cases, players are not required to remain on a particular roster. The player’s contract is irrevocably assigned to the drafting team and the drafting fee ($12,000 for Triple-A, $4,000 for Double-A) is paid.

01-19-2014, 08:54 PM

M2

Re: Sorting out the Upper Level Rotations

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallen5862

Minor league Rule V players can be assigned to any level in the minors. The only restriction was that there had to be a AAA spot open when he was selected.

Thanks for the clarification.

01-19-2014, 10:20 PM

corkedbat

Re: Sorting out the Upper Level Rotations

Just my WAG

Louisville River Bats (AAA)

Chien-Mein Wang - guaranteed the spot unless they say no thanks we like the kids better and release him near the end of the SpringJeff Francis - guaranteed spot if he's a starter. Hasn't had much luck as a starter in the majors - always a need for bullpen lefties - wouldn't shock me to see them groom him a little for the pen in case of a big club injuryDaniel Corcino - may end up in the Reds pen at some point. Unless he's dealt though, I expect him in the Bats rotationDavid Holmberg strong spring shows Reds knew what they were gettingSharky Rogers - bottom of L'Ville rotationNick Schmidt & Chris Reineke - duel for the Bats swing spotTrevor Reckling - lefty in Bats pen unless he's cutCarlos Contreras - Bats Closer

Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Robert Stephenson - Top of the Wahoos rotation until June 1 when Wang opts out of Bats contract (if not soonerJon Moscot - Ditto for FrancisRyan Dennick - lefty for the Pepsi rotationTim Crabbe - may be a surprise who moves up by draft dayShane Dyer - solid guy for the bottom of a AA rotationMikey O'Brien & Mike Dennhart - vie for swing spot

Bakersfield Blaze (A+)

Josh Smith - unless there's an injury or call-up, here until the Memorial day move-upDaniel Renken - DittoIshmael Guillon - might beat the previous two to up the ladder if he can show decent control, if he can't he might end up in the penDrew Cisco - advanced control advances himBen Lively - they challenge him after last season's stellar seasonJames Allen & Jake Johnson - fight for 6th spot

Armstrong and Weiss may vie for a spot in Dayton too, otherwise I like corked bat's thinking

01-19-2014, 11:48 PM

RED VAN HOT

Re: Sorting out the Upper Level Rotations

Quote:

Originally Posted by corkedbat

Just my WAG

Louisville River Bats (AAA)

Chien-Mein Wang - guaranteed the spot unless they say no thanks we like the kids better and release him near the end of the SpringJeff Francis - guaranteed spot if he's a starter. Hasn't had much luck as a starter in the majors - always a need for bullpen lefties - wouldn't shock me to see them groom him a little for the pen in case of a big club injuryDaniel Corcino - may end up in the Reds pen at some point. Unless he's dealt though, I expect him in the Bats rotationDavid Holmberg strong spring shows Reds knew what they were gettingSharky Rogers - bottom of L'Ville rotationNick Schmidt & Chris Reineke - duel for the Bats swing spotTrevor Reckling - lefty in Bats pen unless he's cutCarlos Contreras - Bats Closer

Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Robert Stephenson - Top of the Wahoos rotation until June 1 when Wang opts out of Bats contract (if not soonerJon Moscot - Ditto for FrancisRyan Dennick - lefty for the Pepsi rotationTim Crabbe - may be a surprise who moves up by draft dayShane Dyer - solid guy for the bottom of a AA rotationMikey O'Brien & Mike Dennhart - vie for swing spot

Bakersfield Blaze (A+)

Josh Smith - unless there's an injury or call-up, here until the Memorial day move-upDaniel Renken - DittoIshmael Guillon - might beat the previous two to up the ladder if he can show decent control, if he can't he might end up in the penDrew Cisco - advanced control advances himBen Lively - they challenge him after last season's stellar seasonJames Allen & Jake Johnson - fight for 6th spot

Francis made 11 relief appearances for Rockies last year with roughly the same results as starting. It is possible that he might be persuaded that the best way to prolong his career is in that role.

Crabbe was promoted to AAA at the end of the year and pitched well. I can't see him going back to AA. He seems like a candidate for the AAA pen which is also getting crowded.

Josh Smith is 26 and has pitched well at every level, including AA. I can't see him going back to A+ after a full, successful season at AA. Reds need to make up their mind what to do with him.

Daniel Renken pitched poorly at A+, but has done fairly well everywhere else, including a full season at AA. I see no point in sending him down.

I have heard that many successful relief pitchers are starters up to a point in the minors. I think several pitchers have reached that fork in the road.

01-20-2014, 12:22 AM

corkedbat

Re: Sorting out the Upper Level Rotations

Quote:

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

Looks pretty good, but a couple of comments.

Francis made 11 relief appearances for Rockies last year with roughly the same results as starting. It is possible that he might be persuaded that the best way to prolong his career is in that role.

Crabbe was promoted to AAA at the end of the year and pitched well. I can't see him going back to AA. He seems like a candidate for the AAA pen which is also getting crowded.

Josh Smith is 26 and has pitched well at every level, including AA. I can't see him going back to A+ after a full, successful season at AA. Reds need to make up their mind what to do with him.

Daniel Renken pitched poorly at A+, but has done fairly well everywhere else, including a full season at AA. I see no point in sending him down.

I have heard that many successful relief pitchers are starters up to a point in the minors. I think several pitchers have reached that fork in the road.

I agree in principal with what you say. The presence of so many AAAA and ML retreads though make it conceivable that the way I have it could be the reality. Three possibilities - a) some of the afore-mentioned AAAA and ML retreads pitch their way out of the picture b) trade(s) remove one or more of the prospects from the competition c) the always ugly possibility of injury intervenes.

Also, there's the distinct possibility that Reineke, Reckling, Schmidt, Dennick, Dyer and Dennhart (as well as Wang and Francis for that matter) are not locks for any rotation. They could just as easily be in the bullpen or out of the organization come April if prospects show they're superior.

You're right though. After you get past Louisville, there are probably at least two starters at every level that are a wrung or so lower than they should be. If nothing else, Memorial Day (and soon after, Draft Day) may do a lot to remedy things

01-20-2014, 12:31 AM

corkedbat

Re: Sorting out the Upper Level Rotations

nm

01-20-2014, 01:15 AM

M2

Re: Sorting out the Upper Level Rotations

Wild guess:

AAA

Wang
Francis
Corcino
Rogers
Smith

Reineke and O'Brien in the pen and at the ready when/if some of those guys get ripped.