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Summary of the impact

Research by Hall on transport planning and polycentric development has
influenced spatial
planning policies in the UK, USA and China. His fundamental thesis,
following Colin Clark's axiom,
has been that transport investment alters accessibility and thus
development potential for regions,
cities and neighbourhoods. As policy advisor, he secured implementation of
High Speed One, the
proposed High Speed Two and the Orbirail Overground line in London, and
the promotion of the
strategic planning of London and its wider region on a polycentric basis.
These schemes have
benefited millions of passenger users, enhanced investment in rail
networks and led to economic
revival and growth.

Underpinning research

Research by Sir Peter Hall in the UCL Bartlett School of Planning has
demonstrated that urban
structures in the UK and mainland Europe have become increasingly
polycentric, both physically
(morphologically) and functionally, with individual towns and cities
linked by fast, high-quality public
transport which encourage agglomeration, networking and clustering.
However, in practice this
process has limits: too easily, high-speed networks can encourage the
growth of larger cities and
their regions at the expense of other urban places, particularly those
experiencing painful
adjustment from the manufacturing (goods-handling) economy to the
knowledge (cognitive/cultural)
economy.

In 1995, Hall published research into the demonstrated effects of
high-speed rail in other countries,
notably Japan [b]. At the same time, he also began to develop the
concept of growth corridors in
extended mega-city regions [a, c] and developed the "Regional
Metro" concept, especially as a
basis for growth in South East England. In a report for the Royal Town
Planning Institute (RTPI) in
1999 [d], Hall developed the concept of a polycentric London,
based on the completion of an
Orbirail system through the capital's middle ring of suburbs. It was a
forward-looking strategy for
transport development that was to have a major impact on London's
transport strategy.

Subsequent research on living and working patterns in the South East was
conducted by Hall in his
role as PI of the EU-funded, eight-nation POLYNET project. From 2003, he
developed the case for
improved transport connectivity both between and, increasingly, within
regions, leading to regional
and local transport investment in north-west Europe. The POLYNET project
showed that planning
strategy should be based on a distinction between `Regional Metro'
high-speed services and `Very
High-Speed' services. By bypassing development corridors to connect
directly to regional core
cities in the midlands and north of England, this would free space on the
existing lines to
accommodate traffic growth without congestion. Hall sketched an outline
for a future High Speed
Two network using the old trackbed of the Great Central Railway [e],
and proposed an outer orbital
railway connecting places in a 40-to 50-mile ring around London [f].

From 2008-12 Hall was director of the European Union's SINTROPHER
project, a €23 million
combined research and investment programme to improve connectivity from
key hubs on the
emerging European high-speed rail network to five `peripheral' regions in
north-west Europe. This
was followed in 2012-13 by the SYNAPTIC programme to promote seamless web
interchange at
key hubs. A comparative case study of two regions — Manchester and its
sub-regions in north-west
England, and Lille and its sub-regions in Nord-Pas-de-Calais (France) —
showed that, for both
regions, the arrival of high-speed trains did support the development of a
knowledge economy.
Notably, the study showed that whilst faster train connections with the
national capital provided
economic benefit to the regional capital the same was not true of some
sub-regions around it,
especially those which were formerly industrial [g].

Details of the impact

Hall's research on polycentricity has delivered significant and
wide-reaching impacts via three
principal routes. The first of these is the uptake of his research by
policy makers; the second is
Hall's own direct influence on decision making as a policy advisor; and
the third is his involvement
in overseeing infrastructure investments in his role as a project
director. Through these routes, his
research has had significant impacts on UK infrastructure, providing
millions of passengers with
improved transport infrastructure, particularly in once poorly connected
areas. These three
pathways to impact — and illustrative examples of the changes and benefits
accruing from them and
resulting from cumulative work over many decades — can be outlined under
the following three
headings:

(i) Making the case for high speed rail and rail connectivity in the
UK and Europe
During the period from 1993-96, Hall worked intensively on the strategic
design of the Channel
Tunnel Rail Link (High Speed One). From 1993-94 he was Special Adviser to
the Secretary of
State for Environment on Strategic Land Use Planning, with special
reference to the East Thames
Corridor and Channel Tunnel Rail Link. In 1994-95 he as drew on his own
research work in his
role as adviser to the London and Continental Railways Consortium on
planning and regeneration
aspects of the Channel Tunnel High-Speed Rail Link, widely known as High
Speed One (HS1) — not
least in their successful 1995 bid to build and operate the HS1 system. In
these roles he developed
the strategy for the Thames Gateway sub-region with the proposed HS1 as
its centrepiece. At this
point, although substantially complete in its core area, the London
Docklands regeneration was still
lacking development at its eastern end, and there was seen to be a
strategic need to extend the
initiative into the wider Lower Thames sub-region. Fundamental research by
Hall [a, b] informed
the configuration of the route, particularly the inclusion of station hubs
on HS1 at Stratford (East
London) and Ebbsfleet (Kent) [1; p. 142]. Following Hall's
research findings, Stratford and
Ebbsfleet were identified as strategically significant potential growth
poles to trigger economic
regeneration in the Thames Gateway region, offering attractive connections
to Central London,
Southeast England and Northern Europe [1; p. 143]. HS1 opened on
14 November 2007, and
Stratford International Station came into use for domestic services on 30
November 2009.

Further research by Hall on polycentricity, in particular the concept of
the Mega-City Region, made
a vital contribution to the case made for High Speed Two (HS2), a high
capacity railway linking the
North of England to London and beyond, connecting directly to the
continent (via HS1 and the
Channel Tunnel) and to Heathrow Airport. In 2005, Hall advocated HS2 in an
article [e] and as a
member of the Advisory Group to Greengauge 21, a non-profit advocacy group
working with
railway industry leaders to whose successful advocacy of the concept he
made a key contribution.
Greengauge 21 published its Manifesto in January 2006, attracting
widespread media coverage
and stimulating major national debate. In January 2009 the Department of
Transport accepted the
case in a report proposing an initial route from London to the West
Midlands [4], and established
HS2 Ltd to examine the case and present a potential route. In March 2010
the Labour government
accepted the case made in a White Paper on HS2. After further review by
the incoming Coalition
Government, in January 2012, following a public consultation on the London
to West Midlands
route to which around 55,000 responses were received, the then-Secretary
of State for Transport
announced the government's decision to proceed with the construction of
that line. As a
consequence, HS2 Phase 1 from London to the West Midlands is currently
planned to come into
operation by 2026. The proposal remains controversial, but Hall's research
has continued to
provide an important source of evidence in this debate, notably through
recent research [g] with
Chia-Lin Chen reporting the positive economic impacts of high speed rail
on the Lille Métropole
sub-region [5].

(ii) Investment in and benefits of improved UK and European rail
networks.
The Green-Hall report [6] and SINTROPHER/SYNAPTIC research
projects, both overseen by Hall,
have led to major investments in UK and European rail service including,
for example, the upgrade
of Manchester Victoria Station; the new Koksijde Station (passenger data);
ongoing investment in
the redevelopment of stations at Veurne and Diksmuide; and the completion
of Phase 3 (Line 2) of
the Valenciennes tramway. Investments made as an integral part of
SINTROPHER included
upgrading the Blackpool tramway upgrade investment; this has allowed the
service to carry more
than 5m passengers since reopening in April 2012, 15% over the projected
figure. Furthermore,
the Blackpool tramway extension (North Pier-North Station) has been
identified as a regional
priority for investment in 2015-17 [7].

Furthermore, the existence of HS1 and Stratford International Station,
albeit then still under
construction, was a principal consideration in the International Olympic
Committee's choice of
London — announced in July 2005 — as the location for the 2012 Olympic
Games [8]. A total of 4m
passengers were carried on special shuttle services on HS1 during the
London Olympics [2] with
no operational glitches, and a strong post-Olympic boost saw traffic
through the station up by 5% in
October — December 2012 [8].

Even against a difficult economic backdrop, Eurostar's passenger numbers
rose by 2% in 2012 to
9.9 million, up from 9.7 million in 2011. The company's operating profit
was £52.3 million, a
substantial increase from £25 million in 2011 [3] — thereby
demonstrating both the positive
economic impacts and the popularity of the service as designed for
passengers.

(iii) Orbital Rail and Polycentric Development in London and the
Greater South East
Research by Hall back in 1989 [a], and work he conducted in 1999
for the London Development
Partnership [d], had a major effect on arguments for London to
develop in a polycentric manner,
particularly through successive versions of the Mayor's Strategic Plan in
2004 and 2009 [9]. The
1999 report argued for early completion of Orbirail, linking separate rail
lines in London, into a
single outer circle system, to encourage a more polycentric form of
development at key
interchange hubs. These proposals were the revived by Boris Johnson after
his election as London
Mayor in 2008 [9], which led to the completion of Orbirail,
assisted by a takeover of key national
rail services in London by Transport for London (notably the North London
Line) to become the
London Overground service.

The full Orbirail system opened in December 2012 [10]. By
completing the final section of track
between Surrey Quays and Clapham Junction, previously unconnected areas
are now served by
an integrated rail service with trains running directly from Highbury and
Islington to Clapham
Junction. In 2012, London Overground carried 120 million passengers,
nearly four times the
number carried when it launched in 2007. Including the Orbirail
extensions, demand has increased
280%, quadrupling from 2.57 million to 9.83 million journeys per
four-weekly period. According to
Boris Johnson as Mayor of London, the passenger numbers on London
Overground services have
been `going through the roof' and as a result it has become `the
most popular suburban railway in
the country' [11].

Accordingly, in February 2013, Transport for London (TfL) announced a
£320-million programme to
increase capacity by 25%, and to introduce five-car trains on all London
Overground routes to
meet rapidly increasing demand for the network's services. In the Public
Expenditure Review in
June 2013 the Chancellor of the Exchequer further announced £115 million
funding for
electrification of the Gospel Oak-Barking line, potentially extending
Orbirail to serve major urban
regeneration in Barking Riverside — a key site in Hall's Thames Gateway
proposals [12].

Outside London, Hall's vision for polycentric development of the Greater
South East region [c, g]
also had a demonstrable impact on the Government's 2003 Sustainable
Communities strategy,
which follows the model of three major development corridors leading from
London, and on the
2005 Milton Keynes-South Midlands Sub-Regional Plan, which proposes
similar polycentric
development for the so-called `City of Mercia' (albeit grouped into larger
urban units). Specifically,
Hall's vision for an outer orbital rail service were taken up in Surrey
County Council's proposal in
March 2013 for an extended service on the lines he had proposed [13].

Sources to corroborate the impact

[1] Faith, N. (2007) The Right Line: The Politics, the
Planning and the Against-the-Odds Gamble
Behind Britain's First High-Speed Railway, London: Seagrave Foulkes
[ISBN. 978-1-89861-803-4;
Available on request]

[2] For the number of passengers who used HS1 during the Olympics,
see the Southeastern Rail
website item, 13 August 2012 [http://bit.ly/1efhgKE]