Shaheen Beats Sununu In Latest Poll

Potential Challenger Has Not Said Whether She'll Run

A new poll shows that Sen. John Sununu could face a strong challenge for re-election, but his toughest opponent isn't in the race.

Poll: Senate Poll

Democrat Jeanne Shaheen battled for the U.S. Senate seat in 2002, and Sununu won by 20,000 votes. A new WMUR/CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows that the outcome could be different now, with Shaheen picked by 54 percent of voters, compared to 38 percent for Sununu.

"Sununu has some problems, and I think a lot of the problems he has are because Republicans in general are dispirited here," said pollster Andy Smith, of the UNH Survey Center.

Shaheen is not in the race for Senate, but supporters are organizing a Draft Shaheen campaign to encourage her to run.

Among independent voters, Shaheen leads by a slimmer 45 to 40 percent margin. But Smith said that Shaheen would have the momentum of her party behind her, with 85 percent of Democrats saying they would pick her and 8 percent saying they would vote for Sununu.

Eighty percent of Republicans said they would vote for Sununu, but 17 percent said they would switch and vote for Shaheen. More Democrats than Republicans also said they planned to vote, giving another edge to Shaheen.

"It's all so very clear to me that people are ready for a change," said Kathy Sullivan of the Draft Shaheen campaign. "They feel that John Sununu is not doing his job. He's been very stubborn and sticking with George Bush on a number of issues."

"Obviously, there's a national mood out there right now that is not helpful for Republicans, but it's nothing to do with John Sununu's performance," said Fergus Cullen, chairman of the state Republican Party.

Democrats have targeted Sununu, sensing an opportunity to take a seat in the Senate. An ad bought by national Democrats attacks Sununu on his support of President George W. Bush's policy on Iraq.

Although Shaheen has not decided whether to run, there are three Democratic challengers in the race. According the poll, they are all trailing Sununu.

Smith said that while those numbers aren't good for the challengers, Sununu also has problems tracking below 50 percent against any of them. He said it is still very early in the Senate race, and anything can change.

Shaheen has said that she won't decide whether she will run until at least the fall.