ABI Research Forecasts 45 Million Windows Phone and 20 Million
BlackBerry 10 Smartphones in Active Use at Year-end; Enough to Keep
Developers Interested

January 31, 2013 10:28 AM Eastern Standard Time

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The global installed base of smartphones will total 1.4 billion by the
end of 2013, according to the latest forecasts from ABI Research. Of
this base, 57% will run on Android and 21% on iOS. Meanwhile, there will
be 268 million tablets in active use, with 62% of them built on iOS and
28% on Android. The annual growth rate against 2012 will be 44% for
smartphones and 125% for tablets. Despite of Apple’s and Google’s strong
hold of the market, ABI Research anticipates that the future won’t be
quite as duopolistic as it may seem now.

Outside of the leading two operating systems, how will the world look
for the two main challengers, Windows Phone and BlackBerry 10? Senior
analyst Aapo Markkanen comments, “2013 should be seen as relative
success for both Microsoft and BlackBerry. For the end of the year, we
expect there to be 45 million Windows Phone handsets in use, with
BlackBerry 10 holding an installed base of close to 20 million.
Microsoft will also have 5.5 million Windows-powered tablets to show for
it.”

Importantly, the figures refer to actively used devices, which is what
app developers – with certain caveats in mind – should generally treat
as an addressable market for their releases. As Markkanen points out,
“The greatest fear for both Microsoft and BlackBerry is that the initial
sales of their smartphones will disappoint and thereby kill off the
developer interest, which then would effectively close the window of
opportunity on further sales success. Our view is that the installed
bases of this scale would be large enough to keep these two in the game.
It will definitely also help that both firms have actively kept the
developers’ interest in mind while designing and rolling out their
platforms.”

ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of
trends in global connectivity and other emerging technologies. From
offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research’s worldwide team
of experts advises thousands of decision makers through 70+ research and
advisory services. Est. 1990. For more information visit www.abiresearch.com,
or call +1.516.624.2500.