UFC 142 Preview & Predictions: Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes

The UFC’s second trip to Brazil in five months doesn’t have near the hype that the original UFC Rio did, and for good reason. The original UFC Rio (UFC 134) in August was a special event that marked the UFC’s return to the birthplace of mixed martial arts, and it featured a stacked card headlined by the uber-popular Anderson Silva.

UFC 142 doesn’t have the starpower that UFC 134 did, and it won’t have the same special atmosphere provided by the UFC-starved fans in Rio. But UFC 142 still features several intriguing bouts between highly-touted future prospects, and the main event provides another look at the best featherweight in the world taking on a legitimate challenger who could pose a real stylistic threat.

JOSE ALDO VS. CHAD MENDES (UFC FEATHERWEIGHT TITLE)

Jose Aldo used to be considered the future of MMA, a fighter with unparalleled skills and a killer instinct that made him one of the most terrifying and vicious fighters in the sport.

He’s still considered to be one of the best overall fighters in the game. There’s no question about that. But over the course of his last two fights, much of the Aldo mystique has vanished. The deadly striker who finished every one of his WEC opponents – besides Urijah Faber, but another round of leg kicks surely would have spelled doom for Faber as well – has turned into a decision fighter since coming into the UFC last January.

Is that a fair analysis? Not really. Mark Hominick and Kenny Florian are dangerous fighters, and Aldo simply took the easiest route he could on the way to defending his title. Plain and simple, he needed the wins, and he got them. And to be fair to Aldo, he’s been nursing injuries for the better part of two years. It’s hard to be explosive when your body isn’t 100%.

Aldo is still the best featherweight in the world, but in challenger Chad Mendes, he’s facing a brand new challenge: a truly powerful wrestler. Sure, Faber has wrestling skills, but Mendes is on another level, with grappling skills that nobody else at featherweight can equal. His striking game hasn’t been the best, but his wrestling and strength are the ultimate equalizers. If Mendes gets in trouble, you can bet he’s going to try and take you down, and unless your takedown defense is on point, there’s a good chance he’ll succeed.

This title fight ultimately comes down to the same question that surrounded Alistair Overeem vs. Brock Lesnar. Can Mendes get the fight to the ground? I think he can, and I think he will. But once he gets the fight to the mat, can he control Aldo? We’ve long heard that Aldo’s submission game is even better than his striking, but we’ve never seen it because he’s been so dominant on the feet. There’s a pretty good chance we’ll get to see it here, though.

If Mendes gets the fight to the ground, and if he’s able to control Aldo on the ground, we could very well see a new featherweight champion. If that happens, the fight could look a lot like the Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen fight. If he can’t get Aldo down, however, he’s going to be in for a really rough night.