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At this point, I’m convinced that Javier Baez is the Chicago Cubs’ top prospect.

Yes, I know some will dispute that, and I won’t hate on anyone that does. Indeed, I’ll chalk up those disputes to “wow, how awesome is the top of the Cubs’ system when people can credibly argue that Javier Baez is not the top guy?” For me, however, Baez’s eminence was made plain when I found myself almost daily writing about the latest absurdly awesome thing Baez had done. It’s almost easy to forget that he hit four homers in a game back in June at High-A Daytona.

The final tallies: 274/.338/.535 line in 337 plate appearances at High-A Daytona, and a .294/.346/.638 line in 240 plate appearances at AA Tennessee. That’s a .282/.341/.578 total line on the year, with 37 homers, 111 RBI, 20 stolen bases (just 4 CS), and 34 doubles.

He was 20. Baez is a shortstop. He was at High-A and AA. Take all of this together, and you can’t overstate how fantastic Baez’s season was. For me, that’s enough to make him the top prospect in the system. For GM Jed Hoyer, that’s enough to say that Baez had the most impressive season he’s ever seen.

“Personally, in my career, it’s as good a minor league season as I’ve seen,” Hoyer told Jesse Rogers of Baez’s 2013 campaign. Hoyer pointed to Baez’s slugging percentage at AA, in particular, as evidence of just how special the season has been. “There’s a list of guys that slugged over .600 at his age,” he told Rogers. “It’s a pretty special list.”

From here, Baez heads to the Arizona Fall League – together with, among others, the three other members of The Big Four (Jorge Soler, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant) – where he’ll play shortstop, second base, and third base, and the Cubs will evaluate his positional progress.

However he does, though, Hoyer cautioned that he doesn’t see Baez breaking Spring Training with the big club. As I’ve mentioned before, even if Baez were deemed ready by March 31, the Cubs would be foolish to start him immediately in the big leagues when keeping him down until late April – just a few weeks – would net them an entire extra year of control (which would come when Baez was in his prime). By waiting until late June or July, the Cubs could also avoid Super Two status for Baez (a lesser, but still legitimate consideration). Setting aside those considerations, Baez may simply need more seasoning at AA or AAA before the big leagues enter into the picture, especially if he starts playing a new position.

I can’t wait to see how (and where) Baez plays this Fall when the AFL opens October 8, together with how well his teammates play. It’s not quite the October baseball we’re all hoping for, but it’s still pretty cool.

Oh gosh, I hadn’t even though of him as a second baseman. Hello Dan Uggla++

JB88

If he could play 2B, it would probably be the best the Cubs could hope for. But I expect he’ll start the positional dominos by playing at SS & 3B in Iowa next year.

Justin

Isn’t it typically a foregone conclusion that most players can play an adequate 2nd if they are a shortstop? I’m not saying that Baez wouldn’t need experience at 2nd before being decent there, but I think there should be a good chance he can hang there. I’m not trying to sound like a dick, but just wanted to make sure that’s a common assumption?

Blublud

It is. Remember, Barney was a SS. He adjusted pretty well.

JB88

I don’t think it will be an issue of whether he can handle it or not, I just think that he’ll play 3B and SS and will make the bigs at 3B. Alcantara will also be promoted to AAA and he’ll need somewhere to play. I expect you’ll continue to see him at 2B. I’d just like Olt to force the issue and make it more likely that Baez moves to 2B.

It’s a good problem to have, for sure, but honestly I see Baez in LF or 3B, longterm.

Justin

I hear ya. I think Alcantara could be trade bait. He’s much better than Didi Gregerious, and like what that dude fetched. Great situation the Cubs are in. I just want Castro to pull his head out of his ass, so we only have to think about 2nd and 3rd options.

terencemann

Gergerious is an exceptional defensive shortstop, though. Alcantara is not.

CubFan Paul

The Cubs didn’t trade for Olt on hopes that he’d force the issue. Between Grimm and Olt I don’t know who gets less attention.

A BALL PITCHERS ARE ALL THE RAVE. I kid.

DocPeterWimsey

Look at it this way: the earlier a guy switches from SS->2B, then the less apt he is to make it to MLB. Almost all 2B are “failed” SS, after all.

jh03

The exception to that rule will be Kolten Wong. He’ll be the greatest second base prospect of all time. I swear.

Eternal pessemist

Ryno.

Justin

Yep, almost all Major Leaguers of any position are failed SS at some point in their baseball career.

Rich H

Jeff Kent is who I see as he fills out. Hopefully Baez gets it quicker than Kent did.

Beer Baron

although what Jeff Kent “got” is now illegal in baseball. Just sayin’….

Rich H

I meant health wise and his adjustment period from prospect to someone you could count on. I think with Kent it was almost 4 years till he started fufilling some of the promise he showed early.

CubFan Paul

Theo has. I remember 2012 quotes when he mentioned 2B without blinking when talking position switches for Javy.

Donnie Baseball or Valbuena will keep the bag warm for Javy in 2014 (sorry Barney).

Justin

Yep, I agree with this. I think chances are slim Barney is back next yr. I keep wondering why they are hitting him in the 2 hold everygame, probably showcasing him.. Although, I would be shocked if the Cubs got much for him at this point.

Jarder

As much as you can showcase a guy with a .270 obp. I would rather see Valbuena than Barney, he can at least get on base a bit.

Part of the Core

I have to disagree…we’re talking about a gold glove 2nd baseman. They don’t grow on trees. His defensive WAR is 1.4 plus he leads the league in runs saved. His offensive numbers (or lack thereof) get magnified on a team without many sluggers, but on a team with a few sluggers, his defensive capabilities will win out. We’ll see.

terencemann

If the question is keeping Valbuena at 3rd or Barney at 2nd, I’d probably take Valbuena since he’s still above average defensively at the position and I can stomach his hitting.

Hope you don’t mind the off topic link. On the SCORE this morning one of the hosts said this article was the best he had read all season so I got curious and googled it.

HCS

That was a great read, thank you for the heads up!

miggy80

That was a good read. Thanks for the link.

Rebuilding

If that article doesn’t make you pull for C.J. Edwards to make it you don’t have a heart

Chef Brian

Thanks for posting. I read it yesterday and I came away with a new excitement for the future of the ball club. With all the losing it’s easy to lose sight of what a phenomenal year the FO had in acquiring young talent. Edwards in particular was a great pick up.

Eternal Pessimist

Who held a gun to the editor’s head and made him write something good about the Cubs?

Eternal Pessimist

I mean, it was in the Sun-friggin-Times.

sclem21

I’d like to see the ‘pretty special list’ of guys who slugged .600+ at age 20 if anyone tracks it down, please share

What an amazing yr for Javy. It’s hard to remember that back in May everyone was crushing him because of his K rate. Just a guess, but I bet he’s a top3 prospect with Buxton and O. Taveras to start next yr. Pretty bad ass…

Tim

Is the AFL part of milb.tv?

Casty

His value would go through the roof if he played 2nd rather than 3rd base, that type of production from a middle infield position is so rare.

Blublud

Baez is not the Cubs top prospect, he is the top prospect in all of baseball. He won’t break camp with the big Team. That would be dumb. But if he opens next year in AAA and he crushes like he has this year, I don’t see him getting much more then 150 at-bats before we see him.

Jim

That would still make him the Cubs top prospect, No?

Justin

Look up what every scout is saying about Byron Buxton. That dude is insane. Basically worst case is Mike Trout. Baez is a top 3 though..

http://Jplgxk AlwaysNextYear

Honestly come on worst case Mike Trout I think you meant worst case Corey Patterson because if Mike Trout is the worst case then screw him playing induct him in the HOF now

http://www.hookersorcake.com Hookers or Cake

Buxton is a great 19 yr old at A+ hitting 880+ OPS with 4 hr in half a season. Trout did the same thing at 19 in AA but had a lot more power and then was the MVP in MLB at 20.

jon

If his worst case is Mike Trout, then his best case is a baseball player that has never existed before. Come on….

David

Come on man, worst case Mike Trout? That’s just silly. He’ll likely be a star, but I don’t even think his best case is Trout. Trout looks like a consistent 10 WAR player, it’s absolutely insane to ever expect anyone be that type of player.

JB88

Aren’t you forgetting Vogelbach?

CubbieBubba

the sole reason for the cubs to push for NL DH

Eternal Pessimist

I wonder what this would do for shifting player position. Maybe some 1B who are poor fielders/bad wheels (generally a place to hide their defense) to the DH. Does this make Rizzo a relatively more valuable 1B compared to others since he is a very good fielder with some pop?

jh03

He’s a top 10 in all of baseball (and possibly one of two Cubs in that category. Squeal). He’s not #1 though. I know, I know, it’s all opinionated. But you won’t see a single report that has him ahead of Byron Buxton.

Blublud

Buxton is very good, but he ain’t no Mike Trout. He has a legit claim to the top spot himself. It has to be him or Baez. A leadoff CF with a bit of pop, good glove and plenty speed vs a middle of the order SS with a lot of Pop and good speed. Neither would be the wrong pick. The good thing is going into next year, there will be a legit #1 and not just some guy they pulled out there ass like Jurickson Profar.

jh03

There have been reports, from accomplished scouts, that Buxton’s *floor* is Torii Hunter. That alone nets him number one. Especially when you consider how low Baez’s floor is.

Blublud

Baez’s floor is incredibly high right now. He is not a bust candidate anymore. Once you dominate AA, there is no doubt he will at least be a useful starter.

jh03

No it’s not.Not at all. When you K more than 25% of the time your floor is still really low. Especially when you aren’t facing major league pitching.

I love Baez, and I think he made some real improvements this year. But he is still a bust canidate, and he’s still very very risky.

Blublud

Yeah. Not a chance he is a bust. He may not become a super star, but Adams Jones would be his floor offensively.

jh03

“… Adam Jones would be his floor offensively.”

No. Just, no.

Baez is a boom or bust guy, according to most. He “plays with his ass on fire.” Those type of guys either make it big or don’t contribute much at all. Personally, I think Baez will make it. But my lone opinion doesn’t change the fact that he’s risky as hell. There’s a very good chance that Baez comes up and major leage pitching eats him alive, and he can’t hold his own. In no way, shape, or form is Adam Jones Baez’s floor.

Blublud

Oh well. That your uninformed opinion.

jh03

Right, because your opinion is so much more informed than mine. I forgot.

http://www.hookersorcake.com Hookers or Cake

Alex Gordon and you are getting warmer

Eternal Pessimist

I read a report that Baez’s floor is Lex Luther and his ceiling is superman.

X the Cubs Fan

Striking out 25% of the time is fine when you’re hitting 40 homeruns.

Chef Brian

I’d have to disagree with the language of your prediction. Baez has the risk associated with all prospects bit this season has lowered the percentage of his being a bust significantly. He isn’t nearly the risk her once was and I think his floor is at least of that of a contributing major leaguer. I think we all want the best for him and there is nothing wrong with shoring up expectations it lessens disappointment.

http://www.viewfromthebleachers.com Norm

hahah, Brandon Wood says hello.

bbmoney

Yup

Justin

Blu, I love Trout too and think it’s insane to compare anyone to him, but I have read several reports that show Buxton having less holes that Trout at this stage. That’s not to say he will , but he is an off the charts prospect and higher than Baez for sure..

Blublud

They are 2 different type of players. I would take Baez’s incredible slugging over Buxton. Remember, Baez is a year older, and exactly one level more advanced and putting up better numbers then Buxton. Look at the slugging and OPS. I would put Baez 1, but it all a choice. I guess projections matter also.

Eternal Pessimist

Both have similar wOBA this year, Baez at a higher level.

Baez has all the jacks and a very sustainable BABIP around .325. Buxton BABIP just over 400. SS vs CF. Baez may just have the edge based on this season’s results.

hansman1982

Buxton also has a BB/K ratio that screams “MOAR SUSTAINABLE”

bbmoney

Yeah… I think Baez is the bee’s knees, so I’m not trying to belittle the amazing season he had.

But if you want to make a more fair comparison….look at what Baez did in his age 19 season at A+ ball. Now look at what Buxton did this year. Small sample size concerns apply of course…..but yeah…..Buxton will probably start next year at age 20 in AA and most likely not finish it there. None of which is to definitively say he’s the better prospect, but he’d have my vote.

Justin

From Baseball America “The best minor leaguer I’ve ever seen,” said a scout quoted in the story. In his professional full-season debut, Buxton absolutely assaulted helpless minor league pitching, slashing .334/.424/.520 with 12 homers, 19 doubles, 18 triples, 77 RBI, 55 stolen bases and 109 runs scored in 125 games between Class-A Cedar Rapids and High-A Fort Myers. The No. 2 pick in the 2012 draft posted numbers eerily similar to Mike Trout’s minor league output. Coincidentally, Trout also player at Cedar Rapids (it was an Angels affiliate prior to this season). “Buxton was by far the best I have seen in a long, long time other than Trout,” said Class-A Palm Beach manager Johnny Rodriguez. “Trout has more power, but Buxton probably does more (things). He has a better arm. He is a better defender than Trout, with better range and jumps … Buxton probably is a better hitter. He has fewer holes than Trout had.”

CubFan Paul

A BALL POSITION PLAYERS ARE ALL THE RAVE. I’d rank the AA/AAA stud higher.

Noah

Yeah, Baez isn’t number 1. Buxton is clearly 1 to me.

Lindor is also clearly ahead of Baez to me. Baez MIGHT be able to stay at shortstop. Lindor should be a top 5 defensive shortstop in baseball for close to the first decade of his career. Plus, Lindor’s plate discipline and approach are far superior to Baez’s. Lindor will never hit for the power Baez, but his floor is MUCH higher (a plus-plus defensive shortstop who gets on base), and their ceilings aren’t as far apart as Cubs fans like to presume because of the difference in defensive value.

And then there are others who are pick ’ems, namely Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Oscar Taveras, and Miguel Sano. So Baez could be anywhere between the 3rd best offensive prospect in baseball for me.

JulioZuleta

A. He is the top Cubs prospect. B. Not the top prospect in baseball C. “If he crushes like he has this year, I don’t see him getting much more then 150 at-bats before we see him.”–Remember, his first 150 ABs this year were pretty bad actually. Really bad.

jh03

Yeah, I remember that up until about June people were scared that he was taking a step back. His K rate was ridiculous and he wasn’t walking at all. Then, all of the sudden, he turned a corner and raked. And boom, here we are.

DocPeterWimsey

Which shows you how useless 150 or even 300 PAs are for judging a batter!

mjhurdle

unless you are judging Junior Lake, then it is all you need to know

Blublud

Nobody said 200 at-bats was enough to judge Junior Lake. Its gunny how when people can’t prove you wrong, they twist your words. All I said was based off what he has done in his 200 at-bats, and based off what is currently on the team, he has earned a starting spot for next year.

Hansman1982

Sure, if the cubs don’t add any OF.

Drew7

BluBlud – 9/10/13 @ 9:29 pm

“201 at-bats is more then enough to tell what kind of player he is. 301 at-bats is beyond the point that most stats normalize for a season.”

Hmm…

http://www.viewfromthebleachers.com Norm

Ha, no retort fro BluBlud?

Drew7

Funny thing: when folks accuse other folks of twisting their words, then get called out with a direct quote from 12 hours ago, they tend not to offer a retort.

http://Jplgxk AlwaysNextYear

That’s funny

mjhurdle

stop twisting his words!!
oh…wait…

Blublud

Its funny how damaged Cubs fans are. So damaged, that they can’t even enjoy their own prospects.

mjhurdle

i am enjoying Junior Lake.
I really love his contributions and hope he continues at this level for decades with the Cubs.

But hey, if not wanting to hand rookies without a full season of performance the starting job with no competition means i am damaged, then i guess i am damaged.

Blublud

Yes. And remember, I was the one telling people that his status was still as the top prespect, and that his season totals would come back around, and that his SO rate would drop. Baez know his plan now. I don’t see him coming in trying to hollywood this year like he did last year, because he knows he will be in the bigs next year. He knows he has nothing to prove anhmore, so he’ll just come in and play.

DocPeterWimsey

I dont’ think that his Baez K-rate dropped: Baez’ K-frequency has gone up every level, which suggests a constant intrinsic K-rate facing tougher and tougher pitching.

I realize that people are drooling over all the power (understandably) but what we are looking at here is (optimistically) Chris Davis: i.e,. a 2-true outcome player. This year, Davis is K’ing in 30% of his PAs and homering 14+% of the time that he makes contact. Yes, Davis is walking 10+% of the time, but that frequency is a bit flukish for him, and also buoyed by 12 IBB; he’s more of a 7% walk-rate guy, which is what he was in the minors, too. (That actually is pretty average, which Baez almost certainly never will be.)

cubsfanforever

That is funny

DarthHater

“he is the top prospect in all of baseball.”

Okay, but only because Campana is no longer a prospect. 😛

Chef Brian

Bring on the Scrappy Factor!

Jim

Just thinking about that major league lineup of: Castro, Lake, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, Castillo, Soler, and Almora has to give you hope for the future. Pitching is starting to look bright as well!

Eternal Pessimist

only .006 difference in wOBA league average between SS and 3B (2011 numbers). only .002 between 2nd base and 3B. If Baez has a very good arm I think he projects better at 3rd base, but we have a potential logjam there if everything goes right. Bryant, Olt, Vitters.

Noah

This is kind of due to 2 things right now, though: One, third base is just awful league wide right now. Two, more teams are willing to play shortstops who can just kind of field the position, but can hit better than the average shortstop. I wouldn’t bet on this continuing to be the case 5 years from now.

Le Cubs

Realistically where woulda Baez fall on a top 100 list? Top 10? Top 5? Or even Top 3? Any thoughts on where it will be.

jh03

Top 10, maybe top 5, but I doubt it. The Cubs will have 3 guys hovering around that top 10 mark this offseason. With another (Soler) closer to 15-20.

JB88

I think people should start to temper their expectations on where Cubs prospects fall this offseason. I think you might see Baez and Bryant in the top 20, Almora in the top 20-30, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Soler drop back to somewhere in the 40-50 range.

I highly doubt that any Cubs prospect will be in the top 10. There are just a lot of really good prospects in baseball right now and a lot of evaluators who view those prospects higher than Baez.

jh03

I just listened to a podcast with Jason Parks where he said Baez and Almora are top 10 prospects. Bryant will be a little behind them. Somewhere in the 11-17 range I’d assume (probably further back in that range). Then Soler will be in the 15-25, but he’s the real wild card. Then, you’ve got Jim Callis who will rank Bryant higher than most, so he could be sitting right behind the top 10.

My “expectations” for Baez and Almora don’t need to be tempered. I’ll admit Bryant and Soler could fall and change on most lists. But Almora and Baez will be in the top ten, or *just* outside of it.

JB88

I don’t mean to temper your expectations on them as players or their future with the Cubs (though I admit becoming anxious about Almora for a variety of reasons this year, not the least of which are his myriad injuries), but rather to temper your (the general you, not “you” specifically) expectations on where they show up on prospect lists.

Right now, I think there a number of evaluators who would consider the following prospects as Top 10 players: Buxton, Taveras, Bradley, Lindor, Taillon, Sano, Correa. If Bogaerts, Walker, and Yelich qualify they might slot into the top 10 as well. And then you have guys like Bundy who are currently injured. That’s all to say that there are a number of guys competing for the top 10. If any Cub is making that list, it is probably Baez, though.

Lindor is overrated. Sano worse then Baez and less versatile. Only consideration for 1 is Buxton and Baez.

On The Farm

Considering how Lindor also made it to AA by the end of this season, and how good his glove is, I hardly think he is “overrated” (I even hate Cleveland and it makes my spine tingle giving their prospect kudos).

Blublud

Lindor is good, but he has no power what so ever.

On The Farm

So having power is the only thing that makes you a good positional prospect?

C. Steadman

power isnt everything..Lindor is looking like a future GG and Allstar calibur SS…extremely low Krate, good BBrate, Plus defense, average speed…I would take that out of a big league SS

ssckelley

Ozzie Smith had no power either but ended up in the HoF. Dismissing Lindor just because he has no power as a shortstop is making you look silly.

Eternal Pessimist

Lindor has an AMAZING BB:SO ratio. Not sure if he can continue it in the bigs but it brings his wOBA to a very good level (think he is around .370).

Not as good bat as Baez/Buxton for sure but the glove will make up for a lot of that. I would still take Baez over Lindor if the draft was today, but can’t say that Lindor couldn’t be argued superior either.

C. Steadman

Lindor is 19 and was playing AA before injury…some say the best defensive SS in the minors at 19, with a good contact bat..thats not overrated…Walker is currently pitching in the majors and having SSS success, Bradley dominated A+ and AA…he’s filthy

Blublud

Oh. And isn’t springer like 46 years old.

Blublud

Oh. Nevermind. He younger than I thought.

Chad

2 maybe, not 3. I don’t think Almora will be top 20. He and Soler just haven’t played enough to give that boost.

Justin

Right, I still like Almora but I would really love to see him remain healthy for a bit. Dude’s banged constantly, it’s pretty irritating. Durability, is a skill that gets overlooked and Almora seems to suck at thus far.

Blublud

Baez top 2. Bryant top 10. Soler top 20. Almora will probably drop out of the top 30.

jh03

It could change from list to list, but Almora is going to be closer to the top 10 than 30.

Chad

Doubt it.

Blublud

If Almora is a top 10, Baez and Buxton should be so far up the list their ranking should have a negative sign beside.

jh03

I’m just saying this is what Jason Parks has said. Almora could very well be like #12 or #13, or even #15, but he’s been said to be in the top 10 conversation.

Blublud

I don’t think so. He is arguably the 4th best all around, though offensively I still have him behind Vogs and Alcantara. If he is top 15, then that would mean we have 4 in the top 15.

jh03

You know that you’re lower on Almora than anybody though. And, admitingly, Parks is higher on him than most. But, that’s why I think Almora will be closer to the top 10 than 30, especially on BP’s list. I’d bet he falls from right on 10-15 (on their list). That’s still top 10 consideration, in all those spots.

willis

Almora has amazing tools but I’d like to see him stay healthy for a full season before I drop him in the top 20 of baseball. More likely 30-35, if that, because of the injury bug.

Blublud

Almora has been call a 5 tool player. That is laughable. He has a good arm, and plays good defense. He will not hit like he did in low A ball. Without Checking, Baez average was similar or higher the his in low A, and now look at Baez average. Baez has power though, Almora, not so much. Almora will be a Darwin Barney, or a slightly better hitting Barney in CF. That’s actually still a good player, but not top prospect worthy.

jh03

Like I said, you’re lower on Almora than anybody. I’m not calling you “wrong” for saying that. I’m just stating it. So, naturally, you’ll have Almora lower on your list than someone like Parks would on theirs.

cub2014

almora’s numbers are way
better than barneys at this level,
better even then Castro’s

C. Steadman

and almora was 19 this year at low A, while barney was 21 and straight out of the college world series..horrible to compare Almora to Barney

Blublud

I’m talking about what type of MLB hitter I think he will be. Not what they did in low A.

On The Farm

“Almora will be a Darwin Barney, or a slightly better hitting Barney in CF”

Looking at those two numbers in A ball, and considering Almora did it at a much younger age. I am not sure how you can already compare Almora to Barney, or “slightly better hitting Barney”..

http://Jplgxk AlwaysNextYear

What this is the dumbest thing I have seen. Almora will be Barney offensively in CF. Blublod go to sleep

http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

Darwin Barney hit .273 in A-ball as a 21-year-old, college-experienced player. Albert Almora hit .329 as a 19-year-old straight out of high school.

That’s ignoring the rest of the offense.

DarthHater

Even more significantly, Almora’s OPS was 127 points higher than Barney’s.

But, Brett, all this overlooks the important point. This discussion really is about what each of us chooses to believe about Almora, not what some “facts” supposedly “prove.”

JB88

I loathe hyperbole. But even more than hyperbole, I loathe people who prognosticate on things about which they know nothing.

willis

I still can’t believe you said that Almora would be a hitter like Barney. Barney is terrible and whether or not you choose to want to see it or not, Almora has a very good hit tool. He may never hit for big power, but the kid is a great hitter and threw up damn good numbers in his first go around in A ball. Barney is a joker at the plate. Terrible comparison.

Chef Brian

Blublud, come on. Did Almora beat you up c and steal your milk money? Why the Almora hate? The kid has suffered an early career injury bug, thats all. We drafted him out of high school, and he hasn’t played long enough to know definitively where his floor is. A Barney/Almora comparison is laughable. How in the hell do you come to this conclusion? You magically conclude that Almora, our top pick last year has already showed you enough. that his likely career trajectory has him in line with the worst hitter on our team. SMH, Wow. Just wow.

Chad

All this pissing and moaning started by saying Almora is not a top 10 player. I see no way that he is top 10 all baseball. There are so many great players in the minors right now and when those rankings come out Almora will be lucky to be top 50 IMO. He hasn’t produced as much and hasn’t played much, that will hurt his ability to be ranked. Heck Baez wasn’t top 10 prior to this year and he is more highly looked upon than Almora. I don’t think anybody is doubting that Almora is very talented (not even Blublud), but do you really think he is a top 10 talent right now in all of baseball? I doubt it, but I have not even seen him play very much. Maybe if he gets a full season in next year, but not yet.

jh03

Do *I* think he’s a top 10 in baseball? Frankly, that doesn’t matter, but no. I said that BP will have him in the 10 range, based on Parks’ comments. He very well could fall, but based on what he’s been saying, I’d assume he’d be closer to the 10 spot than the 30 spot.

Hansman1982

Its funny how damaged Cubs fans are. So damaged, that they can’t even enjoy their own prospects.

jh03

That’s your uninformed opinion, Hansman.

Blublud

I think Almora is overrated. But there are some guys that will diss every cubs prospect. Like yourself. Or maybe they just don’t like prospects not brought in by Almighty Theo and Company.

Hansman1982

I may point out the HUGE GIGANTIC FLAW that was Baez’s BB/K rate or that Junior Lake, most likely isn’t this good but you diss on guys like Almora. Just using the tools I have to evaluate guys.

Oh, I am pretty high on Castro, Castillo, was high on Watkins, Vogelbach (well, as high as someone can be on a barely-1B prospect).

It’s not that I have an irrational love for Theo and stalk him outside Wrigley, it’s just that Hendry didn’t leave us much to be excited about.

Blublud

Baez, Vogs, Alcantara, Lake, Castillo, Rusin, Amaya, Candelario, Dunston, and several more. I could really careless who brought who in, but Hendry didn’t leave the system as dry as some would seem to think.

miggy80

Really Hans, Watkins? Did you see the guy play when he was in Des Moines?

hansman1982

I was really hoping he could be a better offensive version of Barney.

Hansman1982

And it’s surprising that a 19-year old posting an .850 OPS in A-Ball is over-rateable.

Blublud

I can use tools to show almora is probably not this good.

Hansman1982

Ok, please do. All you’ve done so far is point out he doesn’t have power.

On The Farm

I think it is funny how you accuse others of having blinders on and only liking the prospects Theo brought in, yet at the same time you have blinders on to what other scouts in the league think of the top prospects.

jh03

He doesn’t have blinders? Obviously Baez’s floor is Adam Jones, guys.

Hansman1982

Oh, it’s obvious. Well then settled. God I guess that BB/K ratio has been magically solved!

Kyle

The BB:K ratio improved considerably as the year went on.

hansman1982

It did but the K rate spiked again. I think we aren’t quite done talking about it and I strongly believe he will be back in AA to start next year.

Blublud

I don’t think there is a chance he sees AA again, unless he stinks up the AFL and ST, or if he has a rehab assignment. I would prefer he goes back to AA and then head straight to the bigs, but that’s not how Theo and comp works.

hansman1982

Ehhh, a 28% K rate (or maybe it was 26%) over the last 200 PA in AA will make the FO send him to AA.

ssckelley

Almora could be the best centerfielder we have ever seen playing for the Cubs. If his bat gets to where his glove is we will be in for a treat, if he can stay healthy.

cub2014

Bats seems awfully good to me.
Almora .326/.361/.826 career numbers.
About as good as it gets w/o the power.
2014 we will see what he is capable of
at A+ and AA

cms0101

Almora is a good prospect, no question. But I really don’t think he’ll be anywhere near top 10 in the game coming off another incomplete season without showing any power. If he can go to Daytona next year, stay healthy, and show off his tools, then maybe that argument can realistically be made. As of right now though, he’s at least 3rd best on the Cubs with Baez and Bryant surpassing him this season for sure. In no way is this a shot at him. He just hasn’t been on the field enough. He had a good season, when he was playing. Let’s hope he grows from there in the AFL and 2014.

ssckelley

But I don’t need my gold glove center fielder hitting for power, if he does it is a bonus. I will take a .326/.361/.466/.826 line all day from a center fielder.

On The Farm

Trout’s power never really came on until he had more than one pro season under his belt. While it may be a bit much to compare Almora to Trout, the main point I am making is that most players don’t hit a lot of HRs in A or even A+ ball. We will get a better gauge on Almora’s power ceiling in AA.

Blublud

Almora will never be a 20 HR guy. 10-15 is the most you can hope for. Unless he starts juicing that is.

Justin

Blu, what’s up with the hating on Almora so much? I agree that after this yr Baez has surpassed him a good amount. But I really think it’s tough to speculate much on Almora’s future homerun ability considering his injuries and young age. His hit tool is off the charts, so if he fills out he has a shot to be very good. Let’s just hope he stays healthy this coming yr.

ssckelley

Bulbud, what are you basing this on? Most scout reports I have read suggests he can grow into a hitter that has power. Damn, the guy is only 19 years old!

Hansman1982

Almora seems to be Brett Jackson with contact ability or Jacoby Ellsbury without the speed.

Justin

Not to mention that Almora, was coming of a broken wrist this spring. Which obviously, doesn’t help anyone’s power. It all comes back to health with Almora in my opinion. Which at this point seems to becoming at least a little bit of a concern.

Hansman1982

Well broken hamate bone (which is far different and less career ending that a broken wrist)

Its the appendix of sports injuries. Everyone breaks it at some point and has it removed.

Justin

Damn, I am going to go get my hamate bone removed after work today then;)

Eternal Pessimist

The hamate bone is one of the 8 wrist bones.

hansman1982

Ehh, enough MLBers have had their hamates removed without any significant impact that I can declare it’s the appendix of sports injuries.

Chef Brian

Regardless, a hand/wrist injury will sap someone of their power, so I think we still should have some patience when predicting Almora’s power numbers. He is 19 and will fill out.

Eternal Pessimist

Are we expecting a C or, is it too much to hope, a D cup?

CubbieBubba

If they don’t rank Soler higher than that he might have to chase them with a bat

http://www.viewfromthebleachers.com Norm

Some lists will have Baez closer to 30 but some will have in Top 10.
Some with Almora in the top 10, some with him closer to 40.
Some with Bryant in top 10, some in Top 40.
Some with Soler in Top 30, some in Top 60.

If you ask 10 Cub fans where Starlin Castro would rank among shortstops in 5 years, you’ll probably get 10 different answers. So it shouldn’t be a shock to see such a wide variety of OPINIONS on where minor leaguers will be.

Blublud

I will be you my IRA account that no one has Baez close to 30.

http://www.viewfromthebleachers.com Norm

Watch out for Keith Law’s list then….
I said “closer to 30″, meaning closer to 30 than to 10 (as in the original post from Le Cubs.

Bill

You used the plural form of list meaning more than one. You’d need more than Keith Law to make that case. I’ll be shocked if you are correct and would consider anyone a fool who has Baez closer to 30 than 10.

cubchymyst

It be nice if Baez could cut the errors down (44 this year) at shortstop. That bat at short is something to drool over and could make up for a lot of errors. However, 44 is a lot of errors and the front office seems to put a premium on defense. I think he spends just about all of next year at AAA playing shortstop. If he looks like he can handle the position then Castro might be trade bait next winter.

Chad

Such a great problem to have when you don’t know if Baez will play SS, 2B, or 3B. Right now Alcantra can play 2B, and Castro could easily move over it Baez is better at SS. Not saying that it will happen but it could. Bryant and Villanueva and Olt potential at 3B.

There are too many obviously so this could open the trade door. Alcantra, Villanueva etc could get moved. Perhaps even Starlin, but I doubt it. Exciting times.

DReese

I am so scared that Baez will be traded in the next 18 months. What he is doing is insane and I really don’t want to give up what he could be for a pitcher.

Jono

I really like how he actually put up better numbers in AA than high A. I don’t know how important that is, being a novice in this stuff. But I like it.

Corey

It’s exceptional for many reasons, but the big one in my eyes is the talent jump from A to AA. It’s less and less prospects and more and more baez’s at every position, and his numbers got *better*

Andrew

I see the logjam at 3B/SS/2B getting broken up by trades for a top-line pitcher or two. And I’d be totally happy with that. I’m VERY excited about these guys, but realistically Castro, Baez, Alcantara, and Bryant won’t end up on the same team. Hopefully one of them ends up in a trade that brings us productive pitchers instead of fizzling out…

Andrew

And I know I’ve left out guys like Olt… It’s a good problem that just gives us plenty of leverage in future trades.

ssckelley

I get all the love for Baez, his stats are gaudy looking. But the prospect list does not end with Baez, Almora’s glove could already play centerfield at the MLB level the only question is if his bat can develop along with his glove. Soler put up good numbers while playing through a stress fracture, at the time they shut him down his numbers were better than Baez. We can only wonder if Soler could have played the full season if we would not have had 2 prospects with 30+ home runs.

Bryant has yet to be challenged, Alcantara is another intriguing middle infielder, throw in all the up and coming pitchers and my mind gets blown. Every day we all argue about young players like Lake and Watkins, they are just a small ripple in the waves of talent the Cubs have coming through the system.

C. Steadman

anyone know how where I could watch the AFL on the internet…is there a special AFL package or something from milb.com?

Jarder

Jason Parks has said that pitchers with a plan can get him out. He had a great season, but we need to temper expectations a bit. Guys in the minors can’t locate breaking pitches like they can in the show.

Jarder

Not saying his word is gospel, just throwing out another viewpoint.

lookingforwardto2015

What the appetite be (from either side) on a Javier Baez, Taijuan Walker straight swap? No secret the Mariners need hitting, and its no secret the Cubs need a TOR type pitcher…as for giving up Baez, I know its tough, but what better time to trade him than at the top of his value, and what better place to send him than to Seattle where he is much less likely to wreak havoc on the Cubs, and we’d even not have to see his crazy highlights all the time on Baseball tonight as they won’t be live until everyone in Chicago is in bed!

Blublud

I would stop watching the Cubs if they made that trade. I would never trade a top positional, everyday player, for a guy who plays every 5th day, straight up. That like trading Mike Trout for Clayton Kershaw. I wouldn’t even consider it.

Hansman1982

What’s funny is that SP, especially good ones, impact, directly more PA than any of the positional players outside of C.

During Verlander’s MVP season it was to the tune of a couple hundred PA.

The “every fifth day” thing is over-worried about.

jt

“SP, especially good ones, impact, directly more PA than any of the positional players outside of C.”
–Hans
That is an interesting way of looking at the game. A SP’er does have a great deal of influence in a game that he starts. Of course a starting positional player has a chance to change the outcome of many more games.
Steve Carlton and that famous year with the Phil’s comes to mind.

Kyle

That’s true, but statistically, the skill of the batter has slightly more impact per PA on the result than the skill of the pitcher.

cubchymyst

How are you determining that one? A greater batter will still only get on base 40% of the time. Are you dividing up the other 60% between the pitcher and defense or only giving the pitcher credit for strike outs.

DarthHater

I think he’s referring to the fact that a large part of BABIP is attributable to fielding, rather than to anything the pitcher does (at least anything that can be measured).

You may now all spend the rest of the day beating that dead horse into equine dust.

cubchymyst

Are you then assuming the batter has a lot of control over where the ball goes. To make it simple break an at bat to 3 outcomes; strike out, walk, or ball in play. I think the identity of the pitcher is as important as the identity of the batter in determining which of those outcomes occurs.

Kyle

I’m referring to the fact that pitchers tend to be on a tighter band of performance than a hitter.

If you want to guess what is going to happen in a given plate appearance, and you can only know the identity of one person, knowing the batter will give you a slightly better chance of being right than the pitcher.

cubchymyst

Not sure about that one. I’d rather know the pitcher K% and BB% then the hitters in a random at bat. Either way I doubt the slightly better chance of being right is going to be significant. It is likely essentially a coin flip.

Kyle

You can prefer whatever you like. But this has been studied. Please don’t ask me to waste 20 minutes trying to dig it up on google.

cubchymyst

It is a slower day for me and I love studies. Is this what you are referring to.

The NERV of an at bat is divided 62/38 for batter/pitcher since the batter has a harder task so the outcome is more dependent on their skill. I think it interesting that over the course of a season the top hitters and top pitchers have roughly equal impacts though. Must be because the pitchers are involved in more at bats.

That year Verlander impacted 900+ PA vs a hitter that gets around 600+ PA on a good year.

jt

The author does not even consider the positional players efforts in the field. Bautista played 1014 innings in RF and 205 innings at 3B in 205.
Bautista was involved with baserunning. How often did he go from first to 3rd on another players hit; or not? Did he steal a base; or not? Did a BB issued to Bautista cause the pitcher to pitch from the stretch thus degrading the value of pitches tossed to the next batter?
Pretty much the easily viewed portion of the iceberg.

lookingforwardto2015

My thought, however, is that you trade from a position of strength, at the peak of value, to fill a position of need. Its great to have 5 quality starters, which you could argue they may have next year, even this year before the trades, but they do lack someone who can go out and either stop a 3game sweep, give the bullpen a break, and lead off the playoffs. While Walker won’t be that right away (Baez also probably won’t be hitting .288 with 40 hrs right away, either) he looks like he will be that type of pitcher in a few years when we need someone like that and are competing. I’m just as excited about Baez as the next guy, don’t get me wrong, but something tells me Alcanatara and Pierce Johnson for Walker doesn’t get it done. If Starlin Castro and Pierce Johnson does, would you consider that? Or Castro, Olt and Vogelbach? Its pretty shitty timing to have Castro and Olt to be at the their lowest levels right now when I view this offseason as the best window to set up for future success given the wave of talent first coming in 2015.

C. Steadman

i dont see the Mariners trying to shop the future #2 behind King Felix for prospects…I could see them trading one of their LHP prospects seeing as they have 4 in their top 10…pretty sure the Mariners will keep Walker for at least the next 6 years

Blublud

You are Crazy. Castro and Johnson for Walker? More like Walker and who for Castro. Walker is not a proven major league asset.

MichaelD

The key to me in not making the deal is risk. Pitching prospects have higher risk associated with them. Even in situations such as Baez, where the position prospect is probably on the higher risk side of things as a player.

Corey

How does the mlb draft look this year? Is it possible for the cubs to have a big 5?

X the Cubs Fan

It’s possible for the Cubs to have a huge 5.

On The Farm

If you count Alcantara (a top 100) the Cubs already have a big 5, if you think Baez will be ready by May, then the draft pick (assuming we stay at #4) we will still have a big four since we graduate Baez. Scouts have been saying that the 2014 draft is deeper than the 2013 so I imagine we will get another big prospect next June.

jt

Alcantara OPS 0.804. Villanueva OPS 0.787
I’m told C. Villanueva is a better fielder than Alcantara. I know that Alcantara is a better baserunner than Villanueva.
Villanueva gets more x-basehits. Alcantara works more BB.
*
OK, the BB thing makes me give the nod to Alcantara but…
they are prospects and I think that they are close in value.
At this moment if I were given a choice twixt Olt and C. V., I choose Villanueva without question.

cub2014

Where is Jiminez starting next year. Kind of
interested in following the 6-4 215lb 16 yr old?

X the Cubs Fan

DSL probably.

cub2014

thanks

X the Cubs Fan

If he dominates it’s possible we can see him in the Arizona Rookie League in 2015 at age 17!!!

Chad

I have seen several posts asking about next years draft already. I know it is way to early and things can change very quickly, but I googled it and found this:

Cubs with 4th pick. Take a pitcher from E. Carolina. I will be honest, I really want the cubs to get Rodon (from one of my alma maters) but he is really good. Never know what will happen, but always fun to project.

SenorGato

If Tyler Beede can improve his control this year a little bit I like him more than any other arm in the class. More varied repertoire than Rodon, and also has never felt any pangs in his shoulder or anything. Best mechanics in the class, pro body, one of the best fastballs, one of the best offspeeds (changeup)….

Allan Simpson called him and not Rodon or Hoffman the most projectable arm in the class because of his mechanics and three plus pitches.

On The Farm

Agreed Beede reminds me of Appel in the fact that he has more than just a plus fastball, or plus breaking pitch. It would be amazing if he fell to the Cubs.

The Cubs would be smart to give Javier Baez more time in the minors to work on his hitting and fielding. If he does well during the first half of next season, we may see him on the big club in July or August next season. Now that would be exciting. Junior Lake this year. Baez in 2014. And a few more in 2015 such as Kris Bryant, Pierce Johnson, etc.

Dumpgobbler@yahoo.com

People get too picky about who goes where. Baez is an elite level prospect. He belongs in a group with guys like Buxton, Sano, Correa, Bogaerts, Taveras and Springer. You can say you like him more or less, but in general after you group the elite prospects together its all small arguments anyways. Baez is clearly talented though, and we’re fortunate to grab him at #9 a few years ago.

SenorGato

That he does. I would take him over most of those guys at that.

Justin

The top prospect I am really interested in the coming yr is Soler. I’ve heard varying reports on his leg injury. There is speculation that he hurt his leg in spring training. IF that is true what he did in AA is pretty amazing. I really hope he just goes ape shit in the coming yr at the plate…

Kyle

There are people who dispute that Baez is the Cubs’ top prospect? Remind me not to care what those people think. The kid abused AA like it was batting practice, while getting improved reviews for his SS defense, while being the youngest position player in the league. If Byron Buxton didn’t exist, I’d lobby for Baez to be in the discussion for best prospect in baseball.

Hansman1982

Ya, even I think he’s the best prospect in the Cubs system.

Rich H

I have been on the Baez bandwagon all year but before we start talking about him in the best of the best conversation wait to see who lights up AFL. It seems that league gets so much publicity that you can blow all year and kill it there and all is good in the eyes of the experts.

jt

Think of the names being left out of this conversation that could insert themselves in a years time.

cubsfanforever

I am jealous for anyone who has the time to know all the prospects from other teams and can even rate them. Even better is all the mathematical wizardry – I need to find and easier job. I always thought you could just look and observe a player and go YEP, I think he is the real deal. You know kind of like money ball. I wonder how all those years of baseball went by and they survived without it. I think the reason I love baseball so much is baseball players can actually have a down year, turn around and have a great year and never look back. Must be tough being a GM and making those choices.

RizzoCastro

So my question to everyone is this why shouldn’t the Cubs sign Cano to a 6 year deal with club options? Pay him more in the years 2-5 than the 1st and the 6th. I think he would be great for the Cubs. I think also think Baez will be the future at SS for the Cubs and Castro will be traded or play CF. What do you all think?

Brains

Yes, this. Will it happen or not is a fair question, but the entire logic of this discussion is “MLB The Show 2014″. You can’t invent players out of the abyss and value them more because they’re cheap. Not everyone is a Josh Hamilton head case or a Mike Hampton injury.

I’m a proponent of a 4 year $110-120M deal. I don’t see the glut of position players in the minors as a hindrance to signing Cano. Instead, singing Cano allows us to comfortably trade a few prospects for a TOR pitcher, without relying too heavily on the prospects we don’t trade to succeed.

mjhurdle

honestly, i don’t see Cano signing anywhere for less than 6 years.. 120 million over 4 years is not as much as 180-200 million over 6-8.

I would love to sign him at 4 years, just dont see that as a realistic option.

RizzoCastro

Agreed

Brains

I think this is almost definitely right, but I’d like to see Cubs fans at least consider the possibility that we can invest in the team on the field, and that the “Cubs” aren’t a euphemism for a young and handsome GM named Theo. We’ve stopped cheering for players and now we cheer for administrators. Would any of you support your boss at work as the hero?

mjhurdle

my boss does a hell of job, and i would trust his opinion about the future of the company over the guy we hired last week

You’re making the assumption that he’s going to get offered a 6 year $200M contract. There’s no doubt he’d take it if offered, but I’d be absolutely amazed if Jay-Z got him a 6 year contract near $25M/year. To me, he’ll have to choose between a 4 year deal at $30M per ($120M) or a 6 year deal at $25M per ($150M).

So under those two scenarios he can be a Free Agent at 34 with $120M in the bank and still able to sign another 4 year deal at $20M+ per ($200M through age 38), or he can be a FA at 36 with $150M in the bank, and sign a 2 year deal at $15M per ($180M through age 38). Obviously this is all just guess work, but I don’t see the options as black and white as you do.

With what happened with Pujols/Hamilton, I just don’t see those mega dollar/mega year contracts continuing…but then again there’s the Dodgers.

mjhurdle

the problem is that a 6-8 year deal is guaranteed.
a 4 year deal in hopes of getting another 4 year deal has much more risk associated with performance and injury.
Most players would choose the longer, guaranteed money over the chance of 2 good shorter deals.
As far as how much he gets…
since 2009, 310/.364/.530 is the line Cano has posted.
Cano’s OPS and HR total by age 30 have only been equaled by Homar Killibrew.
Check this article from Fangraphs out.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/robinson-cano-and-second-base-aging-curves/
I think it is safe to say that 175 million would be about the lowest end of the Cano sweepstakes.

I understand the 2nd 4 year contract isn’t guaranteed and I understand the risks involved. If he gets an 8 year $200M offer, he’ll take it and hats off to Jay-Z if he gets that offer. I just don’t see it happening…but there’s always the Dodgers.

I see Cano’s value, to the fact that the 4 year $120M contract would make him the highest paid baseball player in history (per year). I was just trying to show the options that he’d have and why the Cubs should make him choose between the two.

mjhurdle

Agree to disagree then.
I would love to sign him at 4 years/120 million.
I just think all signs point to him signing over 200 million.

Agreed. Just one more point though, there’s also the affect of the time value of money. $30M in 2014 is worth (buys) a lot more than $30M in 2018.

Eternal Pessimist

I think you are all overvaluing Cano…and are all either his family members or part of his agent team.

jon

”There’s a list of guys that slugged over .600 at his age,” he told Rogers. “It’s a pretty special list.”

I’d be really curios if someone had access to this list…

Wingit

Per the Jesse Rogers ESPN article

That list includes Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Morneau, Andruw Jones, and of course, Sheffield. He did at 17 years old. Baez is in good company.

Sean

I think Baez is most comparable to Gary Sheffield out of that list but with out the On base skills. Baez doesn’t have stanton prodigious power. (its really not a knock on him. Stanton has once in a decade type power). The one tool that stands out to me is Baez’s bat speed that just is tremendous and is on Gary Sheffield’s level.

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