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Seasonal forecast for dry conditions

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Seeding is well underway across the Grainbelt, as growers adjust their cropping programs in response to continuing dry conditions, as the 2018 growing season unfolds.

The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast indicates a less than 40 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall from May to July, based on a poor to good predictive skill level.

The forecast is consistent with the Bureau of Meteorology’s current outlook, which suggests a 30 to 45 per cent chance of exceeding media rainfall for the same period, based on a mostly moderate to good skill level.

The department’s growing season forecast for May to October is also for a less than 40 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall in the Grainbelt, based on poor to good predictive skill.

The forecast for drier than average conditions translates to a decile two to three rainfall range.

The Bureau’s temperature outlook is for warmer conditions, with a 60 to 70 per cent chance of exceeding average day time maxima in the Grainbelt, based on moderate to good predictive skill.

Its minima outlook is for a 50 to 65 per cent chance of above normal temperatures, based on poor to moderate skill.

Department research officer Meredith Guthrie said an analysis of the SSF shows that agribusinesses can have confidence in the department’s seasonal forecasts.

“Since 2012, the SSF has correctly forecasted May to July rainfall in the northern region, and had success in five years out of six in the central region and four years out of six in the southern region,” Dr Guthrie said.

“The model has proved to be particularly useful at the beginning of the season to inform growing season decisions – but it is important to revisit the SSF as the season progresses, in case the determining conditions change.”