Chapter Two: Why current migration policy is not appropriate
for Scotland

52. The
previous chapter demonstrated that growth
in the population, in particular the working age population, can
help mitigate demographic change and contribute to addressing rural
fragility, sustainability of services and public finances more
generally. Migration is essential to this, as all of Scotland's
population growth over the next 25 years is projected to come from
migration. Natural change from births and deaths will be negative
in each year of the projection. This is unlike the rest of the
UK, where natural change
contributes significantly to population growth – it is
projected to account for 39% of the
UK's population increase
between 2016 and 2041.

53. Since the year to mid-2007, Scotland has relied on migration
for population growth more than any other constituent country of
the
UK as Figure 2.1 shows.
Over this period 63% of Scotland's growth has been due to net
international migration compared to 53% for the
UK as a whole. A further
25% of Scotland's growth was due to net migration from the rest of
the
UK.

Figure 2.1: Natural change and net migration as proportion
of change in population between mid-2006 and mid-2016

Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates, National Records of
Scotland, Office of National Statistics

54. Scotland depends on inward migration to grow its population.
Nevertheless, it is
UK policy to reduce net
migration to a target of 'tens of thousands' per year for the whole
of the
UK. The Home Affairs
Committee at Westminster recently concluded that the net migration
target "is not working" and observed that "net migration of non-
EU migrants alone, which
the Government can control regardless of whether the
UK is in the
EU or not, has
consistently exceeded 100,000 since 2010."
[12]

55. There are also significant limitations in measuring the net
migration target. While the migration system may influence the
number of people coming to live here, it is more difficult to
influence the number of people who choose to emigrate and move
elsewhere. The main source of measuring international net migration
is the International Passenger Survey (
IPS). The
quality of the
IPS is
variable with the estimates becoming less reliable when broken down
for particular sub‑groups or areas. Current estimates for
Scotland and other parts of the
UK have high levels of
uncertainty due to the small sample size of the
IPS.

56. The economic modelling in this paper makes clear, however,
that the
UK achieving its net
migration target would be particularly damaging to Scotland. The
migration patterns needed by Scotland include the long-term
settlement of working age people who raise families here, while the
UK focus is on reducing
immigration and centres on relatively short-term work visas to
address skills shortages.

57. The
UK Government tightened
many aspects of the immigration rules in 2012, and put new
restrictions in place and obligations on public services and
employers. This included withdrawing the post-study work visa route
that replaced Fresh Talent and the imposition of additional
maintenance and reporting requirements on international students.
These measures were intended to combat perceived abuse by around
100,000 students overstaying their visa each year. Data published
by
ONS in
August 2017 based on exit checks demonstrated that fewer than 5,000
students overstayed their visa in the previous year.

58. Students are also counted in the net migration target.
International statistical standards require that students are
included in reported migration figures, but there is no requirement
that they are included in government targets on net migration.

59. These changes did not affect
EU citizens directly.
However, after the
UK leaves the
EU, free movement of
people within the European Single Market is expected to be replaced
by a more restricted migration policy for new
EU arrivals, under
UK law . Even without any
announced policy changes, the impact is being felt.

60. The
ONS
briefing paper "Migration since the Brexit vote"
[13] focuses on migration in the first full year since the outcome
of the
EU referendum. In that
time,
UK net migration fell by
106,000. This was the largest fall in any 12-month period since
records began in 1964, and a reduction of around a third –
although net migration remained significantly above the
UK net migration target,
at 230,000.

61. Ensuring ongoing access to labour from across the
EU under free movement is
of fundamental concern to many businesses across the Scottish
economy, as highlighted in our paper
Brexit: What's at Stake for Businesses.
[14] Firms have repeatedly told us that any restriction on the free
movement of
EU labour could
negatively affect their businesses, especially if it were to
involve new administrative or bureaucratic requirements that would
impose or increase costs. For many smaller businesses, in
particular, such restrictions would make the recruitment of
essential staff practically impossible.

62. Many businesses, including in agriculture and horticulture,
have also expressed concerns about the impact that the negative
rhetoric against migration is having on individuals already in
Scotland, or those who may be considering coming here - a concern
that is shared by the Scottish Government. We know anecdotally that
many businesses who rely on seasonal workers, for example, are
finding it harder to recruit workers since the
EU referendum.

63. Some sectors have a particular reliance on free movement of
workers from Europe. There are approximately 17,000
EU citizens employed in
the tourism sector in Scotland, 9.4% of the total workforce. There
are also 11,000
EU citizens working in
Scotland's creative industries, in proportions as high as 35% for
some of the national performing companies. The Scottish
Government's evidence to the
MAC sets
out in detail the positive impact of
EU citizens on different
sectors and the risk to those sectors if migration is
restricted.

64. Economic models show that a decrease in labour supply as a
result of lower levels of migration has a substantial negative
impact on both the Scottish and the
UK economy, but the
impact on Scotland is greater. This is further evidence to support
the case that a different approach to migration is required in
Scotland.

UK Migration System

65. While immigration policy remains reserved, the Scottish
Government will advocate for and attempt to influence change in the
UK migration system to
ensure Scotland's needs are met, as far as they can be, within
UK policy.

66. There are changes to the
UK-wide policy and
systems that would benefit Scotland and other parts of the
UK. We highlight five
areas where
UK Ministers should
revise their policy:

net migration target;

family migration;

immigration skills charge;

Scotland shortage occupation list; and

post-study work visa.

67. The
UK Government target to
bring
net migration down to the 'tens of thousands' is
arbitrary, not based on evidence, feeds negative rhetoric about
migration and contributes to the sense of the
UK as a hostile
environment for migrants. If the
UK Government were to end
free movement of people as they intend and actively pursued a
migration policy intended to meet the net migration target, it
could be deeply damaging to all of the
UK and to Scotland in
particular. Economic modelling in this paper suggests the
GDP impact for
Scotland of the
UK reducing net migration
in this way could be over £10 billion per year by 2040.

68. Scotland accepting only a proportionate share of the
UK net migration target
in that scenario would exacerbate the already significant
demographic challenges the country faces and stifle economic
growth. Therefore, as part of any future immigration scenario, the
UK Government should
abolish their net migration target; or, at the least, migration to
Scotland should not be included within the target. In line with
public opinion and as the Scottish Government set out in response
to the
MAC, if the
UK Government maintains a
net migration target then international students in the
UK should also not be
included in it.

69. The restrictions the
UK Government has placed
on
family migration in recent years combined with an
expansion of
EU law rights for family
members has created the paradoxical situation where
EU citizens living in the
UK, exercising treaty
rights, have an easier pathway to bring their non-
EEA family with
them than do British nationals. The
UK Government should
continue to protect the rights of the family members of
EU citizens after Brexit,
and should take account of the value of family life by extending
rights to the family members of
UK citizens

70. The
Immigration Skills Charge is an unhelpful burden
on employers seeking access to skills and talent from across the
world. The charge constitutes an additional bureaucratic and
financial burden on Scottish businesses and employers should not be
penalised for employing the skilled staff that they need. The
application of the skills charge in Scotland should be
discontinued.

71. The
Scotland Shortage Occupation List is the only
current element of the
UK immigration system
where there is any attempt to consider the different needs of
Scotland relative to the rest of the
UK. However, it is not a
devolved responsibility
[15] – the Scottish Government has no formal role in
determining what occupations are considered in shortage in
Scotland. Scottish Ministers cannot currently commission the
MAC to
consider changes to the Scotland Shortage Occupation List. The Home
Secretary makes that decision on the basis of advice from the
MAC, and
the
MAC offers
that advice in response to a commission from the Home Secretary.
The Scottish Government contributes to this process, but only as a
stakeholder and in the same way as any other individual or body can
respond to
MAC calls
for evidence.

72. Therefore, while the shortage occupation list for sponsored
work visas is in place, the
UK Government should
review the administrative procedures around it to give a formal
role to the Scottish Government in commissioning and determining
what occupations are in shortage in Scotland. In the longer term,
there remains a question about whether the Shortage Occupation List
is a helpful measure, or if there is a more systemic way to fix the
problem it attempts to address.

73. As previously discussed, the success of Fresh Talent in
Scotland from 2005 saw the
post-study work visa mainstreamed into the
UK immigration system in
2008. This was later withdrawn by the
UK Government in 2012.
The Smith Commission recommended reviewing that decision,
suggesting that the
UK and Scottish
Governments work together to consider reintroducing the withdrawn
route to post-study work for international graduates in Scotland, a
position supported by universities, employers and all political
parties in Scotland. The
UK Government should
respect the Smith process and the cross-party consensus that exists
in Scotland, explored in Box 4, and reinstate the post-study work
visa at the earliest opportunity.

Box 4: Progress on Smith Commission
recommendations

The report of the Smith Commission recommended that the Scottish
and
UK Governments work
together to explore the possibility of reintroducing a post-study
work route.

"The parties have agreed that the Scottish and
UK Governments should
work together to explore the possibility of introducing formal
schemes to allow international higher education students
graduating from Scottish further and higher education
institutions to remain in Scotland and contribute to economic
activity for a defined period of time."

Following the publication of the Smith Report in December 2015,
the Scottish Government has repeatedly sought to work with the
UK Government to explore
the possibility of reintroducing a post study work scheme. Scottish
Ministers established a Working Group and Steering Group, with
representation from all Scottish political parties, that put
proposals and recommendations to the
UK Government on how
post-study work in Scotland could proceed. However, the
UK Government remains
reluctant to constructively discuss the reintroduction of such a
route and has ruled out any movement without consultation or
engagement with Scottish Ministers or stakeholders in Scotland.

The
UK Government's current
post-study work offer is not adequate for Scotland. The 'Low risk
Tier 4 pilot', which was extended in December 2017, simplifies the
visa application process for international students studying a
Masters' course of 13 months or less at specified universities and
extends the length of time they have to seek work from four to six
months after completing their course. This falls far short of calls
for a post study work route.