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Google doesn't just work on links alone, whereas it is a significant factor you could be dropping because the new site has better content, because yours isn't mobile friendly, because yours is slow, because your backlinks are junk. You'll need to do more than analyse links to find the cause. There is a little noise of them tweaking something but they do this everyday. You just have to continue using good practice to build your site and it won't matter.

I can say it's a horrible update, as I've lost a lot of my long term ranking phrases to a small crappy site.

So a 6 month old site with little content, DA 1 and TF 0 and CF of 1, and with 2 backlinks.... can now outrank a 7 year old site , DA 18, TF 23, TF 19 and 12,000 quality backlinks.

like, WTF!

Is there any evidence this is a temporary state of affairs that might correct itself...or is it an update that sets the new rankings in stone for the forseeable future?

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I understand your frustration because i also lost my nearly 37% of backlinks because this new update. The worst thing is its not supporting the multiple keyword in pipeline style.now this is considering the an whole pipeline as one keyword.

Well, from what I have seen over the last years is that google is ranking pages higher with high quality content, products that sell, and without cheap backlinks. And they are getting better all the time. So that’s ok. You just have to give them what they want. And like @CalvinD said, there are many factors counting, maybe hundreds!