Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 27, 2013):

-The Carrie Diaries was one of the Cancellation Bear's notable misses last season (the other being Hannibal). It had woeful ratings, and yet was renewed. The best the bear can guess its that the CW didn't want to (or couldn't) premiere more than 3 new shows in the Fall and therefore had to hold over one more show from last season.

Regardless of the reason, the show's woeful premiere ratings this season mark it as likely to be canceled by the end of this season. Could the bear be wrong again? Stay tuned.

The bear's keeping Reign at a "toss up", even after its week two ratings decline. He's got plenty of time to move it down later. It's not going anywhere anytime soon.

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders. Crazy fans, and anti-fans, who'd like to predict in the comments are welcome to.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

- certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

“You’re right about Cult. It was DOA. The opening rating was 0.3/0.86. So, clearly no one was interested. For what it’s worth, I believe that Star-Crossed has the potential to find itself in a similar situation.”

@Tom – I actually think its The 100 that is in more danger of being the new cult, it sound as confusing as Cult did and doesnt have a simple concept/plot. While star crossed sounds a lot like Roswell, and has a simple concept “alien boy falling in love with a human girl”, a romance story with a supernatural twist, so basically the Roswell or Vampire Diaries crowd will at least give it a try before giving in or up.

HB

So many smilies for CW this year

starship

@Crest

How is The 100 a complicated concept. 100 years after a nuclear war a bunch of teen delinquents are sent back to Earth to check if its inhabitable, they then run into the local population and severe any contact with the mothership, hardly a complicated concept if you ask me…
The show seems to have a bigger budget (by the CW standards) and a somewhat original story so I see it as having a better chance than the one with the 30 y.o. guy playing a 16 y.o. alien in high school…

JJA

I’ll make some bold predictions:

The Carrie Diaries gets RENEWED. It’s cheap to produce, so it makes a modest profit because of online streaming. Also, the impending AIDS storyline will get lots of buzz.

Reign gets RENEWED. Why? Reign, BATB and Star-Crossed are all CBS produced show. With BATB failing, and Star-Crossed doomed to fail (mostly because of its stupid title), CBS will want at least ONE of its shows to return.

Hart of Dixie gets a FULL 22 episode season 4, and at least a partial season 5. Why? It’s cheap AND has excelent online sales (it’s all over the iTunes chart).

The Tomorrow People will be CANCELED. Why? It will continue to lose its audience. The CW will try to recycle the great cast into its other shows (such as Mark Pellegrino as Ra’s al Ghoul on Arrow; Peyton List as a new love interest on Supernatural; Robbie Amell as male lead in the Embrace pilot, etc.).

Supernatural will get a season 11, making it the longest running Sci-fi show ever.

Star-Crossed and The 100 are both DOA.

Brandy

@Jja I like your predictions!Would love it if you’re right.

Oliver

@Crest I actually think its The 100 that is in more danger of being the new cult, it sound as confusing as Cult did and doesnt have a simple concept/plot.
How is The 100 confusing? It has basically the same plot as Wall-E, a kids film.

Tom

@ JJA

The fact that Reign, BATB and Star-Crossed are CBS produced shows shouldn’t be a factor in programming decisions. Under the CBS/WB joint venture agreement, all programs produced for the CW are treated as joint productions. That means CBS and the WB share all profits and losses from CW programs equally.

Charmed

Tbh I think the Midseason shows are doomed. Neither scream “hit” to me

CBSviewer

Since CW ratings are up this season this is what they could do next season:

MONDAY
8:00 – The Tomorrow People
9:00 – The Flash

The Tomorrow People is a “good” Show and by the end of the season it will have its own fanbase. Use it to premiere Arrow’s Spin-off.

TUESDAY
8:00 – The Originals
9:00 – Supernatural

This night is perfect. Don’t touch it !

WEDNESDAY
8:00 – Arrow
9:00 – NEW SCI-FI DRAMA

Use Arrow to launch a new Show.

THURSDAY
8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
9:00 – Supernatural Spin-Off

Supernatural is really good paired with Vampire Shows so why not it’s Spin-off ?

FRIDAY
8:00 – Hart of Dixie
9:00 – America’s Next Top Model / (R)

Hart of Dixie should go to Friday to die.

Thought ?

CBSviewer

*its spin-off

Truth

@Tom

I’ve found that is not always true.

For example, Supernatural, Arrow, Nikita and TCD are exclusive WB productions. BATB is exclusively a CBS production. The rest are co-productions. You can tell by viewing the end credits of these shows and seeing who’s production logo is displayed.

There’s also the issue of the dominant studio in the co-production. For example, TVD is a co-production. However, since WB shepherded the show from development, they are the dominant studio in that particular co-production. As such, they get exclusive home video and international revenue. Reign is also a co-production, but CBS is dominant in that relationship.

Kate

I think it’s possible that Reign is kept as a limited series for now with no final decision until the network sees how the midseason shows do.

And I still don’t think BATB is going to move to Friday, their timeslot has a lot of competition and I doubt the CW wants to kill two shows that way.

Charmed

If it comes down to Reign and BATB bc of CBS, I think they would choose BATB. Reign hasn’t stabilized yet and it’s already at 0.6 post TVD, while BATB is a second season show, which means it’s closer to syndication

starship

@Charmed
Neither BATB nor Reign will ever get a good domestic syndication deal most likely given their current ratings, so it doesn’t matter if they ever reach 88 episodes, as long as they have an ending. The CW will probably keep the cheaper/doing better online/internationally show and at the moment that’s Reign most likely. Then again they might cancel both.

Rebooted

I doubt both spin offs will get a series order.

chris

I think next year, the originals might go on mondays as a lead in for another show and the supernatural spin-off could be the show after the originals on mondays… hart of dixie may move to friday, because aparently every show about to end airs on fridays and I don’t see HOD lasting very long… As for this year, if Reign and TTP get a full season pick up, I think they will probably get cancelled, like Ringer and Secret Circle, started out great, but with such a long season ratings went low… But, this seems to be a promising year for the CW.

Tom

“However, since WB shepherded the show from development, they are the dominant studio in that particular co-production. As such, they get exclusive home video and international revenue.”

@ Truth

That’s incorrect.

LA Times; March 17, 2006

Quoting Warner Bros. Entertainment Chairman Barry Meyer:

“Meyer told advertisers that “one of the first things we thought of” while negotiating the deal [i.e. the CBS/WB joint venture] was minimizing turf issues. It was decided, for example, that shows developed for the CW by Warner Bros. Television or CBS Paramount Television would be co-productions of the two entities. That way CBS and Warner Bros., owned by Time Warner Inc., would share the profits of any hits.”

FYI, the Netflix deal was signed by both CBS and WB. That’s because they jointly owned the programs they were licensing to Netflix. So, sorry, but you got it wrong.

Truth

@Tom

Then are you able to explain why some CW shows only have the WB logo after the credits, some only have the CBS logo, and some have both? Obviously there’s more going on behind the scenes.

Ember

@JJA

is the Embrace pilot even in contention anymore? I’d like to see that, but I think they have no plans to make it right now..

MaryAnn

I hope that Beauty and the Beast ends the season with an episode that could serve as a series finale if it is not renewed. That said, I hope they at least switch it to a different timeslot to give it a real chance before giving up on it. Hey, I would even settle for Fridays! With the reputation Fridays has for the supernatural, it would seem to be a better fit there than The Carrie Diaries.