Saturday, 19 January 2013

When we get a strong trend such as we are seeing at the moment I need to have some idea of where we are heading. This is in part due to the fact that I spent many years snatching profits and taking small bites out of the market and if i had only just let positions run their course I would have made significant -almost life changing profits- rather than in and out all the way up a trend always worrying about topping out. So this is a basic appraisal using advanced linear technical analysis of the current trend in ES H13 and other equity indices and where we are heading.
Firstly, lets pull up a daily chart and look at the most recent swing
highs/lows and the relationship they express as a frequency of reaction
lines and median lines.This is the same dominant fork drawn in most of the charts below but some pivots are different.

EuroStoxx50

CAC40 ( grey CL)

CAC40 ( green CL)

FTSE ( grey)

Emni S&P ( green)

Mini Dow (green CL)

Russell emini 2000 ( different P0)

emini Russell 2000 (differentP0)

emini Nasdaq

The conclusion is that IRTP (in relation to time and price) the emini S&P H12 initial target is 1500and the mini Dow H12 = 13700. The trend and momentum should continue with no large significant retracements/chnage of daily trend direction. These are both do-able and we could be there within a week or two.

Wednesday, 16 January 2013

This is perhaps going to be the best indication of Golds future
intentions and direction and it's strength. It currently is being held
back by the thick black (or blue in one template below) historical ML ( CL) seen in the charts below but I
suspect it may well try to reach higher. However we have seen the
resistance at $1686 has so far held. Only a zoom through with the sort
of outrageous long range bars/candles that are so common in this market
would in my opinion do the job. This impetus may perhaps be provided by some
fundamental news/shift in sentiment.We are told that there are large institutional sell orders at the $1685-90 level.
The converse of this supposition is
true in-so-far-as if Gold fails to move higher it can't just sit here at
these levels twiddling it's thumbs and must retrace perhaps back to the LMLP of the two forks
in question around the $1660 level. ( previous links showing fork coordinates).
One point to note is that price has passed through several reaction lines that have been driving it lower over the last week which can clearly be seen in the 3rd chart down. My bearish bias continues but I have become slightly uneasy at the inability to see a serious pop below $1650. Yes, I am impatient and like a small child who wants everything now and time is a critical factor in any market that is often overlooked/underestimated. The current bar count using my "Sweet Spot 106" reverse/forward count formula indicates that we are in zone for a new pivot/move either way today and tomorrow.