Oregonian poll shows Kitzhaber, Dudley in neck-and-neck race

Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican Chris Dudley have battled to what is essentially a dead heat in one of the tightest races for governor in modern Oregon history, according to a new poll conducted for The Oregonian.

With just over a week to go before the Nov. 2 deadline for returning ballots, the race remains wide open, with 45 percent favoring Kitzhaber and 44 percent backing Dudley.

Seattle pollster Stuart Elway, who conducted the survey, said the race now appears to come down to a battle over which candidate is most successful in getting his supporters to actually vote.

"Turnout is destiny in this race," Elway said. "It's close and there aren't that many undecided voters left."

The new survey, which consisted of 500 telephone interviews with likely voters on Oct. 18 and 19, is the fourth public poll in a row to show an extremely tight race for governor -- but that indicates Kitzhaber may have carved out a very slight advantage.

In each of the four polls, Kitzhaber holds a one or two-point lead. While that is within the margin of error for all four of the surveys, the consistency of the findings indicates he could well be ahead. The margin of error on The Oregonian's poll is 4.4 percentage points, plus or minus.

As the election nears, Dudley and Kitzhaber both said they weren't surprised to be running neck-and-neck -- and each claimed to be well positioned to win.

"That's right where we wanted to be," said Kitzhaber, adding that "we had wanted to be even going into the home stretch" after being greatly outspent in campaign advertising by Dudley over the summer and through much of the fall.

Now, Kitzhaber said, "the challenge is voter turnout," where the Democrats can claim a couple of advantages. They have a nearly 10-point voter registration lead over the Republican Party. Plus, the Democrats, with the help of labor unions and other activist groups, have built a formidable get-out-the-vote machine that is well adapted to the long voting window under the state's all-mail balloting.

President Obama's rally in Portland on Wednesday was aimed at energizing the activists who are the foot soldiers for the get-out-the-vote effort.

Meanwhile, Dudley said he's pleased to be virtually tied this late in the campaign in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982.

"People are clearly seeing, even though there is that registration edge, that what we've been doing for the last 20 years has not worked," said Dudley, who has based his campaign on the idea that Oregon is lagging economically and educationally behind the rest of the country.

"It's been a more Democratic state from day one" of this race, Dudley added, "so obviously going into this, I would have to say I was the underdog."

Still, several national surveys throughout the year have shown Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting. And Dudley holds a 12-point edge among 65-and-older voters, who are particularly reliable about returning their ballots. In contrast, Kitzhaber leads by 11 points among voters 35 and younger, who turned out in droves two years ago but may not vote in high percentages this year.

Both candidates face a group of recession-weary voters who, by a more than 2-to-1 ratio, say the state is on the wrong track. And they often don't express any great enthusiasm forDudley or Kitzhaber, according to interviews with respondents.

Several supporters of Kitzhaber, who served as governor from 1995-2003, said they weren't necessarily excited by the idea of returning him to the post.

"I'm really mad at him for running again," said Susannah Krug, 27, a Portland homemaker and Democrat. She said Kitzhaber has had his eight years in office and it was time for another Democrat to step up.

But Krug said she will vote for Kitzhaber because "I don't like the other guy even more. He's a Republican and pro-big business and I'm not into that."

Bryan Smith, 30, a health-care information technology worker who lives in Scappoose, said he's decided to take a leap in favor of Dudley, explaining that "we haven't had a Republican in a while, maybe he'd do something different."

Smith, a Republican, added: "I like Dudley, but can I say he's the next greatest thing for the state? No."

In many ways, the two candidates are battling for the political center, which has long been a familiar pattern in Oregon and Washington, Elway noted.

"Both of these states are less partisan than other parts of the country," he said, even though partisan polarization has increased here.

Dudley has largely stayed away from the Tea Party movement and has worked hard to present an appealing face to urbanites, teachers and minorities. Kitzhaber has also often presented himself as an experienced problem-solver not bound by partisan ideology.

The new survey shows both candidates have locked up the large majority of voters on their side of the partisan divide. Republicans are slightly more loyal to Dudley, however, than Democrats are for Kitzhaber.

At the same time, non-affiliated and minor party voters are almost evenly divided between the two, with 40 percent backing Dudley and 37 percent supporting Kitzhaber.

The percentage of undecided voters has now dwindled to about 5 percent, according to the survey. Another three percent say they are leaning to one of the candidates; without the leaners, Kitzhaber is at 44 percent and Dudley is at 42 percent.

Greg Kord of the Constitution Party has 2 percent and Wes Wagner of the Libertarian Party has 1 percent.

One of those undecided voters, Veronica Rossi, 54, a Portland homemaker, said she's managed to miss a lot of the campaign because she has been traveling a lot out of state to care for her mother. But she's caught enough of the TV advertising to be discouraged.

"I don't think either one is good for Oregon," said Rossi, a non-affiliated voter. But she said she's determined to make a choice and get her ballot in. "I plan to do it this weekend," she said, "when it rains."