Our 2017 Razzball Commenters Leagues are in full signup mode. I even heard there were a few people from Anonymous that signed up! They said, “To the world, I’m Anonymous, just another white man who sits in parking lots with binoculars watching women.” Man, that Anonymous guy is depressing! As we always do about this time, I eviscerate the haters and complicators! I eviscerate the not-knowers and the over-knowers! I eviscerate the ESPN goers and the garden hoers! I overuse a word like eviscerate that I just learned! I am the Fantasy Master Lothario (don’t abbreviate it) and I’ve come for your children! See, because blog writing doesn’t pay so well, I’ve taken a second job as a bus driver, so I’m literally here for your kids. Like a baller! A shot caller! An “I’m outside of Hot Topic at the maller!” My eviscerating (I’m conjugating my new word!) today comes at the expense of ESPN and their 2017 fantasy baseball rankings. To the tune of Kanye’s Runaway:

[Hook: Grey Albright]

And I always find, yeah, I always find something wrong
You been putting up with my shizz just way too long
I’m so gifted at finding what I don’t like the most
So I think it’s time for us to have a toast
Let’s have a toast for the “They said what the hells?”
Let’s have a toast for Klara Bells
Let’s have a toast for the one guy they bring on every year that never lasts
Every one of them that I know
Let’s have a toast for the Cockcrofts
That’ll never take work off
Baby, I got a plan
Run away fast as you can from ESPN rankings.

Joey Votto is ranked above Trea Turner. I repeat, Joey Votto is ranked above Trea Turner. I repeat what I just repeated while adding commentary, Votto is above Trea because ESPN doesn’t care about you. Let’s remove me from the equation, E=Not Me. Let’s set aside my dazzling intellect and break this down. Steamer Projections have Turner down for 88/16/69/.301/40 in 590 ABs; they have Votto down for 88/23/79/.286/6 in 522 ABs. Is this even close? Apples/oranges, tomatoes/potatoes, 1st baseman/2nd baseman. Sure. I’ll give you that, but if Votto was a catcher he shouldn’t be ranked above Turner. Well, Votto is more reliable, you say in the snottiest tone you can muster. Yeah, reliable like his 1st half last year when he hit .252? Reliable like in 2012 when he hit 14 homers? Reliable like a 33-year-old? You want younger players, not older ones. Lots of data has proven players’ aging curves don’t peak in the 30’s, but rather their 20’s. Buh-buh-buh-buh-buh-BUT! Votto’s 2nd half last year! Sure, and Turner’s 2nd half was bad? Yeah, a’ight. The ESPN ‘perts either have contempt for anyone that uses their rankings or they just don’t care, which could be construed as contempt. I’m not even being hyperbolic when I say this. They do not care about their readers. They are like an ice cream store that only serves chocolate and vanilla. Will everyone be happy? No, of course not. Will enough people be happy while they exert as little effort as possible? Yes. Why do they have Votto above Turner? Because it is a more mainstream opinion, it’s the chocolate and vanilla of opinions.

[Verse 1: Grey Albright]

You can find pitchers in my rankings
I sent this girl a pitcher last year named Hendricks
I don’t know what it is with their rankings
But I’m not too good with that shizz
See, I could have me a good pitcher
And still be addicted to them waiver adds
And I just blame everything on ESPN
At least you know that’s what I’m good at

I just wanna tell you what I wrote last year. It’s gonna be slightly upsetting, so you’ve been warned. I ragged on ESPN for ranking Jose Fernandez after Keuchel, Kimbrel, Wade Davis, and Tulo. And now I’m quietly weeping. Why do people listen to ESPN? I’m not joking. I’m seriously asking. THEY DON’T CARE ABOUT YOU! Yahoo’s got its problems, but they show their work. Here’s how ESPN thinks: Players that are known commodities they rank high. They rank to avoid the least amount of waves. Keuchel just won the Cy Young, so they ranked him high. It’s the path of least resistance. When you go out on a limb, people can knock you off easier. Without looking, wanna bet if Porcello is ranked in the top 75 at ESPN? Okay, here’s a good one. Porcello or Duffy? I have Duffy first, who do you think ESPN has ranked first? Yeah, they’re out on Ken Patera limbs with all of their rankings.

[Verse 2: Grey Albright]

24/7, 365, fantasy stays on my mind
I-I-I-I did it, all right, all right, I admit it
Now pick your next move, you could leave or live wit’ itAndrew McCutchen still a motherf*cking top OF
Split and go where? Back to reading Cockcrofts’, haha
Knock it off, Freeman’s, a round off
Let’s talk over H2H playoff byes, Bautista still a top OF, huhL.J. Hoes like vultures, wanna fly in your Puig loafers
You can’t blame ’em, they ain’t never seen Hisashi gophers
Every bag, every pitcher, every keeper team in the basement
Comes with a price tag, baby, face it
You should leave if you can’t accept the basics
Plenty sleepers in this balla matrix
Invisibly set, the fantasy thing is faceless
I’m just old, poor, and tasteless
G!

Most of my sleepers that I wrote about almost two months ago held true as I figured they would. As I said back then, I have a pretty good idea who the big box sites will like. I’m way up on Velasquez (sleeper), Blake Snell (sleeper), Kepler (sleeper), Buxton (sleeper, by the way, ESPN ranked Buxton after Michael Brantley; you can’t even make this up), Devon Travis (sleeper) and Robbie Ray (sleeper). Go against people who use ESPN rankings and it’s gonna be magic — ta-dah! Oops, wrong Kanye song.

Now on the less-Kanye tip, here’s a chart of the biggest values from ESPN to me (Thank you!) and the players that ESPN overrates (No thank you!):

Grey thanks for the write up, it’s great being back in fantasy baseball mode. I need some help with keepers. I’m in a 12 teamer Yahoo H2H, 6×6 with OBP & QS league and we get to keep 4 players. I’ve narrowed down the list, but can’t seem to decide on my last 2.

@Packers: I’d say Springer in the 10th for sure. Then either Villar for the value, or Odor if you just want the best player. I’m getting Odor in the 4th round for the three Yahoo 12-team leagues i’ve drafted so far. But, with keeper leagues and players already being off the board, Odor seems fair in the 3rd. Gary Sanchez at 12 is ok, but he’s a catcher and Grey will tell you to Reggie Roby that shizz

I need pitching help…namely I need a reliable SP to lead my staff. I am considering taking one with my first pick…keeper/contract league so many guys are not available and our first round is more like the fifth. With that being said, I think that Odor will be available for my first pick. I love Odor! Without a second round pick, do I take Odor or a top SP in round 1? I am coming back with unpredictable pitchers…Matz, Wainwright, Urias.
Thanks.

@JeF WiTh 1 F: Thanks. That is what I am thinking. All the top SPs are gone…I believe that best available would be Arrieta, Price, Lester, maybe deGrom. My only thought with Arrieta is that he is undervalued at $9 and I think he will outperform that price. Odor is $20. My current team also has Hosmer, Belt, Machado, Harper, A. Russell, Baez, Heyward, and Stanton.

@Foul balls: Is Desmond a better fit for your squad? Marte has more speed and Desmond more power and is that 1st base eligibility going to help you? I think they are close. I’m not buying marte’s average last year either.

Grey, you have to start playing in OBP leagues. They are so HOT right now! I could see Votto over Turner in an OBP league, not a standard 5×5 with BA. The difference in OBP between Votto and Turner could be as much as 60-70 points.

@Matt: I imagine you know what’s good and bad w/ your team… Your hitting is solid, your pitching is risky and likely a mess… I like your top 2 pitchers, but they’re risky, you have no anchor and your backend starters are quantity over quality

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?says:
February 21, 2017 at 6:33 am (link)

Love these pieces, Grey! The ESPN auction values are a little different (Trea at $30 > Votto $26, for example), but still super fun/exploitable and mostly the same.

My favorite aspect of the auction values are all of the tasty SPs for $2 or less (including . . . McCullers?!)

Am I overly optimistic by saying this offense doesn’t have any problems? Going into my (10 team) dynasty draft with almost $0 to fill a Utility spot and 4 bench spots, anything I should target with that Utility pick? I’d like to get my hands on Ryon Healy and see if I can’t replace Beltre with him after this year.

Great write up, Grey! It also begs the question why the RCLs are hosted on ESPN?

I’ve got two questions for you…I’m in a 12 team roto league with some interesting keeper rules (2 players, one hitter/one pitcher, one from 1st half of draft/one from 2nd half of the draft).

First question is which pitcher you would keep, given their relative values; McCullers in the 13th or Rich Hill in the 17th.

Second question, I’m keeping Mookie Betts with my 2nd round pick. I’m drafting 10th, and the only other projected first rounder to be kept is Altuve. That being said, who would you try to pair Betts up with at 10? In mocks I keep getting to choose between Blackmon, Miggy and Correa. There’s a small chance Rizzo or Harper may also be there. I’m leaning towards Correa (Also note that Lindor, Turner and Story are being kept) because I’m afraid of what I’ll end up with at SS if I don’t grab him there. What would you do, oh wise fantasy master lothario?

Personally, I think you’re low on Dee Gordon, but I understand why you would discount him and with his suspension last year, he’s just a hard guy to project. However, I can’t fathom why ESPN is so in love with guys like Bregman, Lemahieu, and Swanson. Bregman if this was a dynasty draft, I could see being higher, but guys like Lemahieu and Swanson are not projected to juice any categories. Lemahieu was .388 Babip. That’s a risk. Assuming he falls back to last year’s very good .366, he’s going to drop to a .315-.325 hitter, which makes him likely in the bottom half of starting 2Bs from a fantasy perspective, and ESPN thinks that’s a 5th-6th rounder? PS – In checking the stats on this, I just realized DJ is 6’4″. He’s a monster, how does he struggle to hit a dozen HRs?!?

Swanson isn’t even projected to be an elite bat, just a very very good overall player. That first slot in the draft gets people all excited, but when it’s on a skill position player, expectations early in careers should be tempered. It’s rare that an up the middle fielder pans out to be a star early in his career. Hell, for someone like Dustin Ackley, it might never happen. I’m not buying an immediate breakout for Swanson. I think he’s more of a fantasy relevant guy in 2019.

@CMUTimmah: I like LeMahieu, he actually hits balls far, but within reason is my like… Hard to see why LeMahieu would be ranked that high when he is as you say more of a .310 guy…. Yeah, Swanson’s the one that really puzzles me… He’s interesting, but he’s not even Semien with the bat

a. Signed up to an RCL today, commissioner Ryan Miller, password ‘nocryinginbaseball’. We need 7 more ballers last time I checked.

b. Off to stupid N’djamena for a 2-day meeting (Thursday/Friday) only we have to travel by road to Don Ameche (leaving at 08h00) to catch THE flight leaving Don Ameche International at 15h00, with check-in at 13h00. Really? for a flight departing at 15h00, we have to check-in 2 hours earlier. And I would love to show you how so non-rigorous and so anti-TSA the procedure is. Just like anything you want to carry, you can take it! I have tried wrapping a firearm in a pound of macon in thin strips but basically all kinds of crap can pass as carry-on. I made a sort of weapon out of the bottom of my Bic pen, it could do some damage. Will be back in Farchana, USA on Monday!

b. I should show you the picture of the crushed car on the lot of our government counterpart. Completely and utterly crushed! I never asked but I imagine they were traveling at high speed on the road to Don Ameche during the rainy season and then flipped over either attempting to overtake the car ahead of them or took a circuitous route with the same result – flipping over crushing, the vehicle on its roof. The road to Don Ameche is really narrow, it’s about 2.5 car widths wide for the most part. It expands as you get to about 30 miles from Don Ameche to 3.5 car widths!! If you want to pass at some points along the way at high speed with balding tires during the rainy season you can make that slip, sliding away move.

I always use your rankings and had won my keeper league five years in a row until this past season, so thanks for the help! I was dismayed to see Daniel Murphy so low, as I traded for him before your rankings came out. This Fangraphs article helped convince me he was legit, curious what you think.

Nicely done Grey. I always look forward to your takes because most of the players are on the rise and simply more fun to follow. Your comparison to ESPN explains for why I have been semi-successful the last few years. The only quibble might be on Bregman. I don’t think he should be as high up the chart as ESPN and Yahoo have him, but he seems to be the kind of player you would rank higher. Thanks for the excellent work!
Mick

From what I gather, they don’t believe the rankings they put out… Consistently I’ll ask him something like, “Why don’t you like (player)?” And he’ll say, “I do like him, but that’s just how the rankings came out.”

@Grey: as if the rankings just magically appear… It was easy to blame Berry when he was around. Now, my working assumption is that TC is the only guy who knows his stuff, and with his reputation as a nice guy, he just lets the rest of the room (Karabell, ?) Put their ranks out there. Then he can play off of them.

@TheTinDoor: basically they are (at least some of them) smart guys but are money whores for a big site that doesn’t give a tin shit about it’s viewers at all. and they don’t cause any stink and keep on signing those checks. back in the day some of the best poker players were shills for casinos too.

What are your thoughts on Phillies closer? They say Gomez but Neris is better pitcher. And Benoit might be the guy to get him more value at trade deadline and he finished last season pretty solid. Thoughts?

I just inherited the 11th place-finishing team in a 12-team Yahoo roto 6×6 (OPS on hitting side and QS and SV+H on pitching). I need to choose 3 keepers from this mess (that can be kept max 3 years). Machado is for sure. Keep the next two highest (Cespedes/Turner) from your rankings, or any reason to look somewhere else from below?

Def a solid read as always. But looking back at last years comparison’s vs ESPN, you knocked some out of the park a few times, but also got knocked out of the park a few times as well. Almost 50/50. Just gotta pick the right combo.

@Rudy Gamble: Not what I see. I measured each against the end of year Razz Rater.
THANK YOU: Grey was closer on 14 of the 33, ESPN on 19 of 33.
NO THANK YOU: Grey closer on 13 of the 23, ESPN 10 of 23.
So, overall, Grey closer on 27, ESPN closer on 29.

I am not waving the ESPN flag, just reporting what I believe to be accurate results.

Great read once again.
I joined a 24 team H2H dynansty league with a pretty standard scoring with weekly winner. Looking for advice on how tackle my draft, I pick 17. It is a daily league with unlimited moves.
Usually I would not take a SP before round 5 and closer before round 10.
Thanks for the articles

Had my 1st draft of the season last night. Of course it did not go as planned; they never do. It was a 12 team 5X5 roto small $$ league with weekly lineups.
I lost out on both Paxton & McCullers …both went early in the 13th round. I also got timed out on my 10th round pick & ended up with Anderson early but I did need speed & he should add to that.
Here’s what I ended up with ….only one bench bat for added speed potential although he is currently hurt ..already. My SP has less young upside than I normally want & more boring choices later but I do like the final mix pretty well. The lesser closers kept dropping down so I collected a total of 5.
With weekly lineups having some SP choices is nice. Perhaps an extra bench bat for the same reason to play matchups but most people drafted 5 or 6 bench bats & most have 2 Catchers …so there should be plenty to choose from later after the SP & Closer situations shake out.
Mr Grey or any commentators …let me know how I did.
C – Flowers (356)
1B – Freeman (20)
2B Odor (29)
SS – Anderson (116) -my auto draft mistake
3B – Arenado (5)
CI – K Seager (68)
MI – A Escobar (284)
OF – JD Martinez (44); Dahl (77); JBJ ( 149); Mazara (188); Pederson(212)
Utility – Kepler (221)
Bench – Tilson (341)
SP – Archer ( 53); Maeda (101); Gausman( 140); Lackey (164); Nola (173); Pineda (197); Lynn (245); Nova (260); Skaggs (293); Norris (308); & Hammel (332)
RP – Giles (92); Dyson (125); J Johson (236); Madison (269); & Kintzler( 317)

Thanks for any advice or analysis of the team. As always great job …Razzball if the place to be for fantasy baseball.

@Grey: Yeah it was 30 rounds in & I needed a Catcher. In hindsight Susac was the better choice. I am not worried at least 7 or 8 of the 12 teams have 2 catchers so I assume there will be options to be had.
Thanks for the critique …Moreland never got drafted so he could help my power a bit at the utility slot

Great stuff as usual Grey! Early Rounds Draft Strategy question….In a 10-team, redraft…I really want Story-3rd, Desmond-4th and Odor in the 5th round. Here is my dilemma: I (and u) have Odor ranked higher than Story. If I take Odor in the 3rd, Story will likely be gone before I can get him in the 4th. On the flipside, there is a fair possibility that someone may snipe me if I wait until the 5th for Odor. Do you recommend I stick to my (your) board or, do I get greedy and try to get my guys 1 round before adp? Thanks!!

Awesome writeup! Thanks for all the help! I am struggling to decide on a final keeper. League is 10 teams, mixed, 1 catcher, 5×5 with OBP instead of AVG. Auction is $260 per team, 7 keepers each. My options include:

@Brandon:I agree with Grey, but I think you should also throw Rizzo back. Sure, he’s great, but auction leagues are all about value and Rizzo is not really getting you any value at $49 … would not be surprised if you could get him in the auction at less than that price (though YMMV based on the bidding tendencies of your league). I would much rather have Justin Turner at $1, which is pretty tasty.

Hi Grey…what does your gut say about Phillies closer situation? They say it is Gomez but Neris is better pitcher and probably should earn role. Also,might be smart for Phillies to run with Benoit to increase his trade value. Benoit was solid after AS break last year. Thoughts between Gomez and Benoit if Neris drafted already.
And do you like Capps to overtake Maurer earlier than later? Thanks for all your priceless insights.

I’m crossing over from the hockey side of things to get help from Grey, Fantasy Master Lothario. 10 man 5×5 roto, same as RCL’s except innings cap instead of games played for pitchers. Keep up to 11 players forever, supplemental draft after keepers are declared to get everyone up to 11 players total, then auction the leftovers. Here are the group of players I’m leaning towards keeping:

I don’t really like keeping that many pitchers but I don’t think anyone else from my leftovers are worth keeping over them outside of maybe Salazar (another pitcher). Those guys are Pujols, Castellanos, Schoop, Bautista.

1) Should I keep 11 or keep less?
2) If I’m keeping 11, should it be those 11?

@Grey: It’s Everlast, Sick Jacken, and Divine Styler. I actually just saw it on Rakaa’s (Dilated Peoples) Instagram page. He’s on their mixtape. Literally never heard of it until 10 minutes ago. I dug the song though.

Nothing says baseball is back like RAZZ. 12 team H2H 6×6 OPS/ and K/9…Can keep up to 4, I’m keeping Arenado, Rizzo, and Odor…and just traded Thor for Lindor, so adding Lindor to the list. Infield locked down. How much of an increase is E5 for Lindor?

Looking forward to yet another great season. Thanks for all the work that you do my man. From the 207…

I don’t know if it’s still how it used to be, but the rankings in the ESPN draft room are composites. They spend a day or two with all of their writers & they argue about guys & have votes & shit. So the reason that no one owns up to the rankings is because they are just aggregated and there’s no plan. So when TC says “that’s how they came out” maybe that’s what he means.

I want to swap a pitcher for a hitter in a keeper, Strasburg for Hosmer fair value? I’ve seen your rankings and know your general feelings on Strasburg, but seems like Strasburg has more upside and is more valuable at his position. Thank you. Also, awesome post, rankings are baffling sometimes.

Grey, I am Stoked!! In my friends/family league (3x champ, you will see why in a sec) i just completed 2 offseason moves. 1st i traded Lester for an extra 3rd round pick and just now gave up Polonco and a 6th rounder for Springer. This is a 7 player keeper league. Only 10 teams but i would welcome more competition but I’m not the commish. Anyhow, that gives me an extra 10th round pick but minus a 13th round selection after you consider keepers.

Now the fun part, my keepers are:
Betts, Arenado, Machado, Rizzo, Odor, Carrasco and now i have Springer added to the fold.

I just want to thank you again for your guidance that has got me this teams

On a fun note, last year i changed my team name to Haymakers in honor of Odor and Machado suspensions. Gotta love the players with the fight in them.

Really torn with picks 24 and 25. Whether to take an ace starting pitcher and perhaps 1B (Encarncion or Freeman) or take 2 hitters and then hope some good SP is left at 48 and 49. Really want to get 2 very good SP’s in the 1st 6 rounds and then 2 good RP’s shortly thereafter. Was thinking to get 6 hitters, 2 SP’s and 2RP’s in the first 10 rounds as a strategy.

Salazar
J.Ross
T.Walker
D.Bundy
J. DeLeon
H.Iwakuma
D.Smyly
T.Skaggs
L.Weaver
Z.Wheeler
C.Reed
Would you Move Salazar and Belt for Harvey,R. Hill and Lackey…I’m leaning yes…Harvey has the upside of Salazar and the other two would help balance out all the upside guys i have.

1. got an offer of napoli for odubel. while this does get me another TEX player hitting in a good lineup (and he could easily take over 1B at some point, i doubt a team that makes the moves TEX has made lately actually intends to play loney-doney indefinitely there, gallo probably up moves napoli to 1B or they split it). i do lose steals but i have way too many OF as is now already, and futurewise this might make at least some room in case i get no real offers for brinson. i do lose steals of course. what you think? napoli does have an option for next year, so he might stick on TEX for a bit, and if choo were to get moved this might be best chance to get a useful TEX player (i’m simply NEVER paying the lucroy price, or probably the hamels price, certainly not the dyson price, the odor owner ain’t selling, cargo 2 i don’t want either)

My league posted keepers prices and I was wrong on what I thought. Who should I keep.for how long. I have arietta for 20$ 2 more yrs.
1yr. 2yr. 3yr. 4yr
Kyle schwarber.. 6$ 15$ 20$ 25$
X Boagarts. 11$ 20$ 25$
Corey seager. 6$ 15$ 20$ 25$
Noah synd. 8$ 17$ 22$
Wil myers. 12$ next year will be 13$ or sign or drop just for myers only.

@Grey: if I drop arietta its a ten dollar penalty. So I can only keep four.
Its a 14 team league. Trout goes for 85$ and goldy would go for like 65$ and these guys win like that. I won last year and took betts for 55$. If seager is ranked a top 20 he will go for 35$ 40$

I’m trying for a crazy-stupid keeper trade in my yahoo, keep-5 league. I have 4 definites then I got plenty of (arguably) keepable talent, so I’m trying to change that into a major upgrade from a team who only has 3 (maybe 4) keepable players. Here’s what I offered:

From what I see in your rankings/pairings, you appear to favour a more balanced approach to drafting as opposed to favouring say power over speed. Is that correct or is really power (with a decent average) still king?