I am not perfect. Please do your own research my comments / or views may not prove accurate, nor i advise anyone to act upon on my recommendations, nor i accept any responsibility on me. Your money, your gain / or loss, before investing into any script better you gain sufficient knowledge of business and calculate risk accordingly as per your risk appetite.

I am not a supporter of NS and SS. Both are corrupt especially SS but God forbid if PTI comes into power after next election then Pakistan ka Allah he hafiz. IK and the gang of perverts will totally destroy the social fabric of our country. The presnt sitiation In KPK manifests their disability to govern.

Yes Farzooq bhai correct and also another reason is too much political discussion and political polarization among members during last couple of years, and many people are sideline becoz of this. Its a pity as this forum is really very useful for persons like us.

Yes Farzooq bhai correct and also another reason is too much political discussion and political polarization among members during last couple of years, and many people are sideline becoz of this. Its a pity as this forum is really very useful for persons like us.

Political Noise to the Forefront Again· KSE100 corrected 0.6%WoW (267pts) to close at 43,681pts on the back of 1) re-emergence of political noise, 2) PKR depreciation and 3) Interim Finance Minister’s comments hinting towards economic challenges. Average daily volume traded decreased 28%WoW to 132mn shares due to dull investors activity as last days of Ramadan coincided with outgoing week (less working days). Average daily traded value also fell by 29%WoW to USD54mn.

· On economic front, the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) devalued another 4.2% during the week, with the bulk of the decline coming in on the first trading day of the week. This marks the third round of depreciation since December, amid looming Balance of Payment crisis and declining Foreign Exchange Reserves (SBP reserves at USD 10.03bn).

· In her first public appearance as Interim Finance Minister, Shamshad Akhtar ruled out the possibility of talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a Bailout Program during the caretaker setup. She has also deferred the plan of holding Article-IV mandatory consultations with the IMF, leaving the issue for the next government. The Caretaker Finance Minister hinted at 1) possibility of further currency depreciation, 2) increase in petroleum product prices, and 3) likelihood of twin deficits breaching the government targets.

· On political front, National Accountability Bureau (NAB) requested the Ministry of Interior to place former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, daughter Maryam Nawaz, and son-in-law Capt (retd) Safdar's names on the Exit Control List (ECL) on Monday. This brought the political uncertainty back to the limelight, leading to a decline of 702pts in the benchmark KSE100 index the very next day (Tuesday).

· Fertilizer and Textile sector remained in the lime light during the week. Fertilizer returned 2.9%WoW, largely driven by Engro Corporation (ENGRO, +3.7%) on announcement of its mining company unearthing coal at Thar Coal. On the other hand, entire Textile Value chain performed on the back of PKR depreciation (Textile Weaving up2.5%WoW, Textile Composite up 0.4%WoW and Textile Spinning 1.7%WoW).

· Cements, Automobile Assemblers and Commercial Banks contributed most to the index decline. Cements (down 6%WoW) dragged down KSE100 the most at 237pts, followed by Automobile Assemblers (down 0.7%WoW) and Commercial Banks (down 1.9%WoW). Reason for the decline for Cements and Autos was sudden PKR depreciation, which may lead to weakness in demand and erosion in margins. Commercial Banks, on the other hand, continued to suffer from foreign selling.

· As per the data released by Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association (PAMA), Passenger Car sales for the month of May-18 fell 15%MoM as production slowed down due to reduced working hours in Ramadan. However the overall sales growth remained robust on YoY basis, as can be gauged by 4/16% YoY increase in May-18/ 11MFY18. Amongst assemblers, Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) was the key laggard with a MoM sales decline of 21%, likely due to restoration of previous import vehicle policy resulting in an influx of imported used cars. This has normalized the sales trajectory for the company, unwinding the abnormal growth witnessed in previous month (+32%MoM in Apr-18)

· Amongst other sectors related news flow; Mirpurkhas Sugar Mills (MIRKS) on Wednesday unveiled a plan to set up bagasse-fired power plant and a steel rebar manufacturing facility with a combined cost of PKR6.5bn. The firm said it set up a fully owned subsidiary by the name of Mirpurkhas Energy Limited (MEL) to produce power from bagasse.

Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meeting is scheduled to be held in Paris from June 24 to 29, 2018, where decision to put Pakistan on the Grey List will be taken. We expect Pakistan to be included on the Grey List, but see very slim chances of inclusion on the Black List. While the news is largely priced in, investors would keep a keen eye on the language used by FATF. OPEC is also scheduled to meet on June 22, 2018 in Vienna to decide on extension of production cuts – any surprise moves may result in further volatility in international crude oil prices, with local E&P stocks likely following suit.

Weekly ReviewLacking any major triggers in the last week of Ramadan, market remained lackluster most part of the current week (slipping 267pts) to close the benchmark KSE-100 index at 43,681pts (-0.61%WoW). Rising macroeconomic vulnerabilities on account of sharp PkR depreciation against US$ (falling ~4%), soaring trade deficits to all-time high of US$33.89bn in 11MFY18 (+13.4%YoY) and increase in local petroleum product prices (rose 4-7%) were the major culprit behind the overall dull performance of the market during the week. Average daily traded volumes at bourse also declined by 28.27%WoW to 131.84mn shares with 1) BOP (61.89mn shares), 2) PAEL (25.49mn shares), 3) LOTCHEM (24.78mn shares), 4) FCCL (20.97mn shares) and 5) KEL (20.85mn shares) leading the board. Major news highlights during the week include: 1) leadership in National Security Committee meeting, reaffirming Pakistan's commitment to meet the international agency's requirements in upcoming FATF meeting later this month, 2) SC sets 30-day deadline for verdict in Nawaz cases, after extending the deadline given to the accountability court of Islamabad, 3) CJP observing that the court has no objection to the Amnesty Scheme and gave one month time to the committee to come up with suggestions against their reservations, 4) SECMC claiming to unearth the first layer of coal from its open-pit coal mine in Thar Coal Block II, five months ahead of schedule, and 5) GoP making special allocation of PkR25bn to start construction of Bhasha Dam and Mohmand Dam. Performance leaders during the week were: 1) ENGRO (+3.66%WoW), 2) NML (+3.29%WoW), 3) PSO (+3.21%WoW), 4) OGDC (+2.87%WoW) and 5) PPL (+2.34%WoW); while laggards included: 1) ASTL (-9.95%WoW), 2) MLCF (-8.99%WoW), 3) DGKC (-8.35%WoW), 4) PIOC (-7.52%WoW) and 5) FCCL (-6.83%WoW). Moreover, foreign participation remained in the negative zone with US$4.45mn outflows compared to US$29.55mn outflows in the preceding week.

Outlook

With the conclusion of Ramadan and Eid holidays, next week commencing from Tuesday (Jun 19) anticipated to be happening session for the market, where investors will likely to take direction from 1) upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna on Jun 22 and 2) any developments with regards to Pakistan action plan for the review by the FATF in its plenary meeting, scheduled to take place in France from Jun 24-29.