Archive for September, 2014

I did not post this past weekend since I was up in Philadelphia. It was a gorgeous weekend for much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern States. A weak trough passing off the Southeast Coast may bring a light shower or brief period of light rain tonight, but odds are most of us here in Hampton Roads won’t see anything significant. The rest of the work week looks nice as high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures should be seasonal with no real extremes expected. As it looks now, a cold front should bring us a decent chance of rain Friday night into early Saturday…. This has been a very wet September for Virginia Beach. I recorded over ten (10) inches of rain this month!!! The tropical Atlantic is quiet at this time. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading.

This is just a brief post to let you know that some models bring a coastal low pressure area close enough to SE VA to produce a period of wet and potentially windy weather sometime during the Wednesday – Friday timeframe. Currently, computer models differ in their placement, intensity, and timing of this potential system, so stay tuned. This may turn out to be a similar situation to what happened this past weekend when only coastal areas received rainfall, most of it light. The Outer Banks did have significant rain last weekend. However, if one model has it right, we will get much more rain with windy conditions. This may even lead to some minor coastal flooding but I must emphasize that there is plenty of uncertainty in the forecast. Please monitor the local media and the National Weather Service forecasts.

The current weather map has a high pressure area east of New England and a stationary front draped across the Northern Gulf Coast to the Atlantic coastal waters off of Florida. The clockwise flow around the high pressure area is creating an onshore flow today (Saturday). Low pressure is forecast to develop off the Southeast Coast and it is expected to move northeastward this weekend well offshore. Right now, the only effects that meteorologists are expecting here in Hampton Roads from this system are just a few showers or sprinkles with the highest chances along the coastal areas. Waves will be increasing along with a high risk for rip currents. Clouds will most likely dominate the skies on Saturday. If the current forecast holds, we should see improving weather on Sunday as the low moves away. Temperatures may be higher on Sunday as there should be more sunshine and the winds will be blowing offshore. Could the low pressure area come closer to the coast and bring us more rain than predicted? The computer models seem to agree that the system will pass too far offshore to create any significant rainfall. The Outer Banks may see some significant rainfall as that area is closer to the storm system. A cold front may bring us a shower on Monday but again rain chances won’t be that high. Cooler weather should follow for the remainder of the week along with dry conditions for the most part… The tropical Atlantic is quiet for now.

A trough of low pressure combined with a frontal system will bring a chance of showers later Saturday but we should have some sunshine as clouds come and go throughout the day. The chance of rain will diminish on Sunday as a northerly wind takes over. Sunday should be cooler with high temperatures not getting much above the lower 70’s, Another frontal system may bring a chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday. You may have heard how cool it is in the Northern Plains. Some areas have recorded their earliest snowfall ever! Is this an indication of what the winter will be like in the U.S.? Probably not. For example, a few years ago, the Northeast had a major snowstorm on Halloween. That turned out to be a very below normal snowfall season for the Northeast. So, early season snowfalls don’t indicate what the season will bring… Tropical Storm Edouard is expected to remain well offshore and it may stay east of Bermuda. It will most likely intensify into a hurricane. Another area of concern near Florida will have to be watched but upper-level winds are not favorable for development at this time. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

In my neighborhood, 4.20 inches of rain fell Monday and Tuesday! Parts of Hampton Roads received even higher amounts as a low pressure system moved slowly through the region. The total for September is 7.80 inches in my area and we’re not even half way through the month! What makes this even more remarkable is that none of this rainfall is associated with a tropical system. The low pressure system is now well out to sea and we will see improving conditions later today (Wednesday). Thursday, we should see summer-like conditions with temperatures possibly approaching the 90 degree mark. Then, a cold front is expected to approach the region and stall out just to our south and east. Waves of low pressure are expected to move along the front, which should result in occasional wet weather again beginning Thursday night and lasting through the weekend. Yes, just what we need, more rain! However, the timing, intensity, and areal coverage of the anticipated wet weather is impossible to predict this far out. So, stay tuned. Hopefully, we don’t see the flooding rainfall that we saw earlier this week…. Regarding the tropics, there are no tropical cyclones currently in the Atlantic Basin. However, there are a couple of areas of concern. Today, September 10th is the peak of hurricane season on average in the North Atlantic. The average frequency of storms begins to decrease after today. Let’s hope that our luck holds out! That’s it for now. Thanks for reading!