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Last Friday, I completed my Top 50 Twins Prospects list by posting my choices for the Top 10 Twins prospects. In looking back at my Archives, I have been doing Top 50 lists since right after the 2005 season. Following the 2004 season, my first attempt was just a Top 25. I have been right on a few of them. I have been wrong on a few more. Of course, when you rank and recognize 50 prospects, it’s a given that not all of them will pan out. But it is fun to do. And it is fun to look back at. Last night, I looked back at all of my Top 50 lists and put together the below list of all of the players who have shown up on one of my post-season prospect lists. (eventually, I may add my mid-season Top 50 rankings to the chart as well). This posting is really just for fun and a nice look back to some names from the past.

Post-2009

Post-2008

Post-2007

Post 2006

Post-2005

Post-2004 (25)

Arcia, Oswaldo

27

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Arias, Santos

33

51

NR

NR

NR

NR

Aselton, Kyle

NR

NR

NR

NR

34

NR

Baker, Scott

NR

NR

NR

NR

2

2b

Barrett, Ricky

NR

NR

NR

NR

44

22

Bartlett, Jason

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

9

Benson, Joe

11

17

9

20

NR

NR

Beresford, James

46

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Berlind, Dan

NR

NR

45

NR

NR

NR

Bigley, Evan

44

43

NR

NR

NR

NR

Blackburn, Nick

NR

NR

27

NR

12

NR

Bonser, Boof

NR

NR

NR

NR

17

14

Bowyer, Travis

NR

NR

NR

NR

11

NR

Bromberg, David

6

25

21

NR

NR

NR

Bullock, Billy

31

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Burnett, Alex

21

30

8

32

NR

NR

Burns, Deacon

NR

NR

NR

NR

39

NR

Buscher, Brian

NR

NR

41

NR

NR

NR

Casilla, Alexi

NR

NR

NR

3

NR

NR

Crain, Jesse

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

3

Crawford, Tristan

NR

NR

NR

45

NR

NR

De Los Santos, Estarlin

NR

49

NR

NR

NR

NR

Deeds, Doug

NR

NR

NR

30

24

NR

Delaney, Rob

37

24

NR

NR

NR

NR

Devries, Cole

NR

34

42

NR

NR

NR

Dinkelman, Brian

28

33

20

35

NR

NR

Dozier, Brian

41

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Duensing, Brian

NR

20

4

13

35

NR

Duguay, Steven

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

13

Durbin, JD

NR

NR

NR

NR

22

2a

Gabino, Armando

NR

NR

50

NR

NR

NR

Garcia, Martire

NR

38

NR

NR

NR

NR

Garza, Matt

NR

NR

NR

1

18

NR

Gassner, Dave

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

21

Gibson, Kyle

5

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Guerra, Deolis

14

12

NR

NR

NR

NR

Gutierrez, Carlos

23

10

NR

NR

NR

NR

Guzman, Garrett

NR

NR

22

21

NR

NR

Harben, Adam

NR

NR

NR

NR

10

8

Hawes, Adam

NR

NR

NR

48

43

NR

Hendriks, Liam

42

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Hermsen, BJ

13

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Herrmann, Chris

40

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Hicks, Aaron

1

1

NR

NR

NR

NR

Hirschfeld, Steve

39

44

NR

NR

NR

NR

Hughes, Luke

20

9

NR

NR

NR

NR

Humber, Philip

NR

36

NR

NR

NR

NR

Hunt, Shooter

51

16

NR

NR

NR

NR

Jones, Garrett

NR

NR

NR

36

25

5

Jones, Justin

NR

NR

NR

43

15

NR

Kelly, Paul

NR

NR

NR

23

31

NR

Kepler, Max

29

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Kirwan, Brian

NR

NR

44

34

NR

NR

Kubel, Jason

NR

NR

NR

NR

3

1

Ladendorf, Tyler

NR

50

NR

NR

NR

NR

Lahey, Tim

NR

NR

51

NR

NR

NR

Leatherman, Dan

NR

NR

NR

50

NR

NR

Leveret, Rene

NR

NR

29

NR

NR

NR

Lewis, Ozzie

NR

NR

33

NR

NR

NR

Liriano, Francisco

NR

NR

NR

NR

1

4

Lis, Erik

NR

26

10

27

46

NR

Lobanov, Andrei

35

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Macri, Matt

NR

NR

49

NR

NR

NR

Manship, Jeff

15

14

5

NR

NR

NR

Marquez, Winston

47

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Martin, Dustin

NR

21

25

NR

NR

NR

Matienzo, Danny

NR

NR

NR

NR

36

NR

Maza, Luis

NR

NR

NR

NR

29

19

McCallum, Derek

43

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

McCardell, Mike

25

18

36

NR

NR

NR

Mijares, Jose

NR

22

35

NR

30

NR

Miller, Colby

NR

NR

NR

NR

42

NR

Miller, Jason

NR

NR

NR

NR

38

NR

Molina, Felix

NR

NR

NR

41

NR

NR

Moore, Caleb

NR

NR

NR

49

NR

NR

Morales, Angel

2

3

32

NR

NR

NR

Morales, Jose

NR

NR

43

NR

NR

NR

Morlan, Eduardo

NR

NR

11

6

21

NR

Moses, Matt

NR

NR

40

15

5

10

Mullins, Ryan

NR

48

15

NR

23

NR

Mulvey, Kevin

NR

8

NR

NR

NR

NR

Neshek, Pat

NR

NR

NR

NR

26

NR

Oeltjen, Trent

NR

NR

48

9

27

25

Olson, Garrett

NR

NR

NR

33

NR

NR

Olson, Justin

NR

NR

NR

NR

48

NR

Ortiz, Daniel

NR

29

NR

NR

NR

NR

Osterbrock, Dan

NR

32

NR

NR

NR

NR

Ovalle, Edward

NR

46

NR

NR

NR

NR

Parmelee, Chris

12

13

6

11

NR

NR

Perkins, Glen

NR

NR

NR

5

14

6

Peterson, Brock

NR

42

18

17

47

NR

Pino, Yohan

NR

40

23

28

NR

NR

Pinto, Josmil

26

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Plouffe, Trevor

16

11

3

19

13

11

Portes, Juan

NR

37

16

44

19

NR

Pridie, Jason

NR

31

NR

NR

NR

NR

Rabe, Josh

NR

NR

NR

NR

50

NR

Rainville, Jay

NR

35

19

18

6

24

Ramos, Wilson

3

7

31

NR

NR

NR

Rams, Danny

17

NR

28

NR

NR

NR

Revere, Ben

7

2

13

NR

NR

NR

Robbins, Whit

NR

47

NR

22

NR

NR

Roberts, Brandon

NR

NR

39

14

NR

NR

Robertson, Tyler

18

6

1

47

NR

NR

Romero, Alex

NR

NR

NR

10

7

17

Romero, Deibinson

45

39

24

NR

NR

NR

Salcedo, Adrian

10

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Sanchez, Henry

NR

NR

NR

NR

33

NR

Sano, Miguel

8

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Santana, Ramon

38

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Santiesteban, Danny

NR

NR

NR

29

NR

NR

Sawatski, Jay

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

23

Simonitsch, Errol

NR

NR

NR

39

28

NR

Singleton, Steve

24

28

NR

46

NR

NR

Slama, Anthony

22

27

NR

NR

NR

NR

Slowey, Kevin

NR

NR

NR

2

9

NR

Smit, Alexander

NR

NR

NR

8

32

20

Sosa, Oswaldo

NR

NR

12

26

NR

NR

Soto, Alexander

NR

45

NR

NR

NR

NR

Span, Denard

NR

NR

30

12

8

16

Stuifbergen, Tom

30

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Swarzak, Anthony

NR

5

2

4

4

NR

Taylor, JR

NR

NR

NR

NR

49

NR

Testa, Joe

50

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Thompson, Drew

NR

NR

NR

31

37

NR

Tiffee, Terry

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

12

Tintor, Eli

NR

NR

NR

25

NR

NR

Tippett, Brad

48

NR

47

NR

NR

NR

Tolbert, Matt

NR

NR

34

38

NR

NR

Tolleson, Steve

32

19

37

NR

NR

NR

Tonkin, Michael

34

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Tosoni, Rene

9

15

26

NR

NR

NR

Tyler, Scott

NR

NR

NR

NR

45

15

Valencia, Danny

4

4

7

24

NR

NR

Van Mil, Loek

NR

NR

NR

42

NR

NR

Waldrop, Kyle

NR

NR

17

16

16

7

Waltenbury, Jon

NR

41

NR

NR

NR

NR

Ward, Zach

NR

NR

38

40

NR

NR

Weller, Blayne

19

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

West, Kevin

NR

NR

NR

NR

40

18

Williams, Reggie

49

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

Winfree, David

36

23

14

7

20

NR

Woodard, Johnny

NR

NR

NR

NR

41

NR

Yersich, Greg

NR

NR

46

37

NR

NR

Did anything stand out? What do you think? Please feel free to Send me an e-mail, or leave your questions or comments here.

Got a good e-mail on this posting… suggesting that instead of just NR for anyone not ranked, I should have other things… So, if you go to SethSpeaks.net, I have updated the chart to show things like REL (player released), TR (player traded), ND (Not Drafted Yet, or Notre Dame in Jeff Manship’s case), NS (not signed yet).

Seth, thanks for updating with more codes than just NR. I forget, what is Swarzak’s status? Do you think he will land a job out of ST next year? Trade bait? Who is Matienzo, and if he is in ML, which team?

I don’t know why I had Matienzo as ML… He got released and I don’t think he ever signed with another team. Maybe I meant to put ML by Maza, because he’s spent time with the Dodgers the last few years.

Swarzak is likely in line for the 5th starter job, although I’m sure he’ll start in Rochester… he certainly could be used as trade bait in the right deal. He was NR since he had like 59 innings pitched and the cut-off is 50.

“Still, you go back and look, and there are no Sano’s or Hicks or the like.”

Sure there are. Matt Moses for example. We just hope they aren’t too much like Matt. You could add Francisco Liriano to that list as well. Deacon Burns generated a lot of excitment for a while … A lot of stuff can happen to a player between low A ball and the Hall of Fame.

I think Tyler Robertson is a good example of how it is difficult to make sense of players who are on the list. If he is a successful major league player will that make you right, since you ranked him the Twins top prospect at one point? Or wrong because you ranked him the 47 prospect the year before?

Here are the players in the major leagues who were left off the top 50 at least once during their minor league career:

That’s exactly right. Matt Moses was supposed to be a sure-thing hitter.

Casilla came to the Twins and the next year he went from FM to NB to the Twins, so he was ranked #3. The next year, he got a bit of time with the Twins so he was no longer eligible for the list.

I admit, I look at ceiling. That’s why Morales and Tolbert have missed it before. Tolbert = major league utility player. Morales = backup catcher. Other guys simply have higher ceilings than role players, but the reality is that being a big league role player means they’re still a big leaguer… whereas the high ceiling guys may never reach AAA.

In my mind, that’s the beauty of the Prospect rankings. You just never know.

It’s amazing to me that you didn’t totally miss more “winners”. Guerrier maybe? Also, very few underrated guys (Blackburn, Mijares, Span, Morales, Neshek, and arguably Tolbert, Bonser, Buscher), and even fewer overrated (Casilla, Perkins?). Complete misses among the “losers”? Again, very few (JD Durbin, Moses, and then Smit, Harben, and a few others, and some of those are injury-related (Waldrop, Rainville). On balance, you have really done a superlative job with this exercise. Congratulations, and thank you.

My only quibble is with your tendancy to not discount players more markedly for defensive deficiencies, and plodders also. Examples: Deacon Burns, Kevin West, and recently Winfree, Lis, Rams, and Hughes. But that’s my bias more than yours for sure. Nice job!

First off, great job and great idea. It shows that once a prospect hits top 10 he usually makes the majors. It also shows the positional talent that is coming up the ranks, back 5 years ago almost all the top talent were pitchers.

Excellent job of charting the Twins system. In some ways, this is even a better look and brings up lots of questions.

Where is Cole DeVries and Dan Osterbrock in 2010?

Armando Gabino made the majors, was listed as #50 three years ago, only sighting on the Top Prospect list here.

Anegl Morales went from 32 to 3, but hasn’t hit the high minors yet.

Jone Morales was only at 43 and 34. Hummmmmmm.

Trent Oeltjen went from 25 down to 7 and back up to 48 before walking to Arizona, where he got to play. Same with Alex Romero, who was listed as high as 7th and also at 10th before walking. Garrett Guzman was a 20-level prospect before he walked.

Parmelee hangs between 11-6-13. Whew. Matt Moses was the same, except he shot up to #40 and then disappeared. That he is still with the Twins is a surprise.

What ever happened to Travis Bowyer, #11 one year, and traded to Florida. Closer in training who never re-materialized. Wonder if the same might be said of Eddie Morlan, who was #11 and #6 before advancing to #21 and traded to the Rays.

Adam Harben, 10-8, was a top prospect, traded away, who never did anything.

Why did Duensing, 35-15-4-20, make it. But not Simonitsch, 39-28.

Is Swarzak really a 5-2-4-4 guy? I guess he showed signs in some games, but maybe the others were all attitude.

Span was highly thought of…16-8-14, until Hunter was traded and he slipped to #30. He proved us all wrong.

Is Tolbert’s 34-38 any better than Tolleson’s 32-19-27, or Luke Hughes 9-20. Why Hughes and Tolleson didn’t get a shot to shine in 2009 is beyond me, since both were on the 40-man.

Crain was a #3 once, why Neshek was #26. Perkins showing up as 5-14-6 should outshine Balckburn’s 12-27, Boof’s 14-17, even Garza’s 18-1.

Pridie is a 31. Josh Rabe was a 50. Dustin Martin is a 25-21. Brandon Roberts is a 39-14. Benson is a 20-11. Lis was as high as 46, as low as 10, now a 26. Whit Robbins appeared first at 22, then skipped, then 47, then skipped again. Winfree has gone from 36-23-14-7 and now back to 20, borderline, right?

Hey, the Twins traded Pino…40-23-28. Great loss? Yet Sosa is still around and hasn’t even placed the last two seasons after being #12 and #26. No Mata? No Fox?

What’s with Robertson, 18-6-1-47.How can you go from 47 to one and now 18, Seth? Waldrop fell off the radar the past two seasons after a 17-16-16-7. Sadly, Rainville retired.

Is Juan Portes a prospect. No found this year. Before was 37-16-44-19. And Brock Peterson also disappeared after 42-18-17-47. Will he walk like Garrett Jones who was not a prospect after three years showing of 36-25-5.

My favorite is the Real Deal, J.D. Durbin, who had a couple of shots and was at 22 when you fist did this, then was #2…yes, he was struggling, but the Twins had to keep him or lose him. They did lose him. Where is J.D. now?

You can assume similar results for this year’s list although it looks like Seth has started to rank recent high choices higher. Perhaps that is a result of the performance of guys like Garza and Duensing.

It is interesting to note that not one player ranked after 35 in 2006 ever became a major league player.

Great stuff TT. Again, Casilla was not with the Twins after the 2005 season, so that’s why he was an NR at the time.

I think we could all say that Liriano established himself like no one else, but then came the injury which has certainly made his status drop. But then again, you can say the same thing for Waldrop, Rainville and several others. I personally don’t know that I’d put Garza ahead of Kubel or Span at this point, but he’d certainly be top 3-5. Of course, all that could be argued.

Another good point is that it makes sense that no one ranked after 30 or 35 would be a major contributor. I mean, not that many players actually make it to the big leagues. I personally have chosen to rank 50 for the primary purpose of recognition for more players.

I like the 5 year review. I did those a couple of years ago, and should probably update it.

“I personally have chosen to rank 50 for the primary purpose of recognition for more players. ”

I know and that makes sense. But I am not sure that is clear to some people that the last 15-20 players may be no more likely to contribute at the major league level than players left off the list.

I have been doing annual reviews of Baseball America’s top ten from ten years ago. It really does take that long to know how players will turn out. Even at that, after this year’s performance, I probably underrated Cuddyer on some of those lists.

As for Garza versus Kubel or Span, I think we forget sometimes that we can’t really agree on who the best players are even after the fact. It is unlikely that the difference between the number one and two prospects is going to be meaningful, unless the number one guy projects as a future hall-of-famer like Joe Mauer. Or Delmon Young…