Obligatory Oscar Outlook

Like millions of others I have ideas on who and what will win Oscars at the upcoming Academy Awards ceremony on March 2. Today (Feb 26) I’ve documented my picks for every category and will revisit them in the coming days to (most-likely) apologize for grossly underperforming a random number generator. I saw most of the major movies, and in the lesser categories involving films that are difficult to access outside of NYC and LA, I read reviews and considered the results of awards already bestowed upon the contenders. That is to say, I guessed . . . but it was educated. (FYI – The LA Times explains the nomination and voting procedures which are somewhat arcane as you might expect from an exclusive, insular club.)

My picks are bold-faced.

Big Five Awards

Best Picture
Picking the Best Picture winner has gotten more difficult since the Academy increased the maximum nominations from five to ten in 2009. This year nine films were nominated. American Hustle – Entertaining but not hefty enough material for snooty Academy tastes. Captain Phillips – Too much like Castaway with a Somalian playing the role of Wilson the volleyball. Dallas Buyers Club – Strong contender, perhaps a bit too morbid. Gravity – Great visually, but the story is too thin. Her – Too quirky. Nebraska – Not enough people saw it. Philomena – Buddy road-trip format not sufficiently weighty. 12 Years a Slave – Powerful story, Steve McQueen is hot. The Wolf of Wall Street – Glorifies impudent behavior; not as good as previous Scorcese material that didn’t win ( Raging Bull, Goodfellas )

Best Director 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen) – Best Picture and Best Director almost always go together. And as I said above, McQueen is hot.
Other nominees: American Hustle (David O. Russell); Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón); Nebraska (Alexander Payne); The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Best Actor in a Leading Role Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) – McConaughey lost a ton of weight to appear more like a man dying of AIDS, and his performance was compelling. In addition, he’s already bagged Best Actor accolades from SAG and the Golden Globes.
Bruce Dern (Nebraska) could have a chance in that this is likely the last opportunity for the Academy to award Dern who was nominated in 1978 for Coming Home. The Academy is known on occasion to reward a lifetime of work by throwing an Oscar to an aging star (e.g. John Wayne for True Grit. ) Other nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street); Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave); Christian Bale (American Hustle).

Best Actress in a Leading Role Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) – Been on the “most likely to win list” for most of 2013. Her performance as a modern-day Blanche Dubois is certainly Oscar-worthy.
Sandra Bullock (Gravity) – If physical exertion were a component, Bullock would win.
Judi Dench (Philomena) – Strong, but Dame Judi already has an Oscar and must bow to Blanchett.
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) – Not a good enough movie to bless with a Big Five award
Amy Adams (American Hustle) – Competitive, but edged out by Blanchett.

Best Adapted Screenplay Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke) – No movie is going to win a best Screenplay if it’s not also nominated for Best Picture. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray) – A retelling of an actual event doesn’t get as much credit as an adaptation of a novel. Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope) – Entertaining story. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) – Said to be a most-faithful adaptation of a complex story. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter) – The memoir by Jordan Belfort (Leo DiCaprio’s character) was largely panned when it came out.

Best Original Screenplay American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell) – A clever and entertaining riff on the real-life Abscam sting of the 1970s. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) – Actually, not that great of a movie, and not nominated for Best Picture. Plus the whole Woody Allen molestation thing will work against him. Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack) – Nothing wrong with this movie, but will lose to American Hustle. Her (Spike Jonze) – Original idea, but the underlying concept is shop-worn (man falls in love with a machine). Nebraska (Bob Nelson) – Good vehicle for Dern, but overall not strong enough.

Best Documentary Short The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (Malcolm Clarke, Nicholas Reed). CaveDigger (Jeffrey Karoff); Facing Fear (Jason Cohen); Karama Has No Walls (Sara Ishaq) and Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall (Edgar Barens)

There you have it. Given that all Oscars are not considered equal, I propose that a correct pick in the Big Five (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original/Adapted Screenplay) be assigned a score of 10 points. A correct pick in the Significant Award Category gets 5 points. Correct picks in Technical Category get 2 points.

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Oscar Ditties Worth Noting

Did you know….?

Three films swept the Big Five awards: It Happened One Night, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest , and The Silence of the Lambs.

Four people won back-to-back Best Actor awards: Luise Rainer, Katharine Hepburn, Spencer Tracy and Tom Hanks.

Walt Disney won the Oscar for Best Short Subject eight years in a row.

It took all the way to 2008 for a woman to win Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker.

At 82, Christopher Plummer was the oldest man to win an acting award: Best Supporting Actor for Beginners.

All About Eve and Titanic were nominated for 14 Oscars. The Turning Point and The Color Purple were both nominated for 11 Oscars – and won none.

Greer Garson and Bette Davis were nominated for Best Actress five years in a row; Marlon Brando was nominated for Best Actor four years in a row. Meryl Streep holds the record for most actress nominations at 18; Jack Nicholson has the record for an actor at 12.

James Dean was nominated twice – posthumously, for East of Eden and Giant .

Although on screen for only 16 minutes, Anthony Hopkins won a Best Actor Oscar for Silence of the Lambs.

Edith Head was nominated 35 times in the Best Costume category.

Woody Allen holds the record for most Best Original Screenplay nominations at 15. He won three times.

Steven Soderbergh was nominated for Best Director twice in the same year for Erin Brockovich and Traffic in 2000.

Last week I wrote a blog about some self-destructive activity taking place in Arizona: the passing of legislation of bald-faced discrimination in the name of religious freedom which awaits a signature or veto from Gov. Jan Brewer. Now that the issue has gained national attention, as well as concern from big businesses like American Airlines and Apple that are worried about customer backlash, the anti-gay bill has started to shudder.

The juiciest part of the whole sordid saga though is the urgency with which some of the bill’s staunch supporters are trying to run from their mess. Companies have called upon Brewer to reject the bill, and according to the New York Times, “their calls were echoed by three Republican state senators — Adam Driggs, Steve Pierce and Bob Worsley, all members of the party’s conservative camp — who had helped pass the legislation in the first place.” Say what?

Blaming the ignorance of those around them for not comprehending the wisdom of their bill, the Three Stooges wrote to their governor, “While our sincere intent in voting for this bill was to create a shield for all citizens’ religious liberties, the bill has instead been mischaracterized by its opponents as a sword of religious intolerance, causing our state immeasurable harm.”

I call upon every Arizona business to deny service to these three on the grounds that to serve such patently flaming assholes directly violates their constitutional right to enjoy a sense of decency. Driggs, Pierce, Worsley – conduct your future business in Russia or Nigeria where your views are more in line with the mainstream there.