Wednesday, 18 December 2013

Introduction

In an
attempt to develop a holistic dataset which allows for an all-round measurement
and analysis of security and public safety in Nigeria, the National Crime and
Safety Survey (NCSS) in 2013 included a comprehensive section on road traffic
safety in Nigeria. To understand the perception and actual experience of safety
or exposure to accidents on the roads, our survey instrument probed a variety
of themes including perception of safety, experience of accidents and
perception of road safety officials in Nigeria.

The
findings discussed in this presentation reveal an array of perceptions and
experiences with road travel in Nigeria and provide a rich dataset against
which our prior understanding of road travel and its challenges could be
interrogated and refined. The data also allows us to measure the effectiveness
of current policies and investments for road travel efficiency and safety in
Nigeria.

This
discussion of road safety in Nigeria at this time is important for 2 key
reasons: first of all it is suggested that 80% of human and good traffic in the
country is moving by road. Secondly, the road network in Nigeria though grossly
inadequate and poorly maintained, it is by far the most comprehensive and
extensive means of travel in Nigeria. This means that surveys and
recommendations on road travel and road safety in Nigeria are indeed at the
heart of communication and travel in Nigeria and affect majority of Nigerians.

Permit me to emphasise at the start of this
discussion what this presentation is not: it
is neither an indictment nor a vindication of any particular agency of government.Secondly, it is not factual evidence as
such. The National Crime and Safety Survey is an annual perception survey that is conducted in
Nigeria by the CLEEN Foundation with support from the MacArthur Foundation.

Since we began conducting these surveys in
2005 in Lagos, we have over the years continuously refined our sampling
technique and survey methodology even as we continuously increased our sample
size to the current 11,518 respondents. These improvements were made in order
to arrive at conclusions that were representative of the generality of
Nigerians and therefore useful in directing public policy. For example,
recognising the centrality of road safety to citizens’ perception of safety,
the survey introduced road safety questions in 2010 and we have since then
observed crucial trends – some of which are captured in this presentation.

Public perception surveys such as our
National Crime and Safety Survey are recognized globally as credible
methodology for gaining insight into public policy matters. Specifically,
victimization surveys measure the likelihood of respondents to become victims
of crime or be affected by an incident such as road accidents. Such surveys are
very useful in understanding not only the nature of crime in a society, but also
the conception of safety. Where available, crime victimization surveys can
serve as control measures on official records and statistics. The cross
analysis of victimization surveys and the official statistics could yield
valuable insight on the direction of road accidents and the impact of road
safety policies and investments in the society. Yet by their very nature,
public perception surveys are severely limited in that they are based not on
real experience of an incident, but rather on the perception of members of the
public on safety and security.

Studies have shown that while the actual
experience of an incident such as a road accident in a community is often the
biggest driver of individual perception on road safety, it is also possible
that other factors such as the mass media as well as the conduct of security,
traffic and road safety officials can have decisive impact on the perceptions
of corruption and road safety in the community. In the National Crime and
Safety Survey 2013 for example, we found that whereas as many as 78% of
residents of Adamawa state felt that the roads in their state were prone to
accidents, only 15% of them were victims of actual accidents. The gap between
the actual experience of 15% and the perception of 78% is fed and driven by a
diverse multitude of factors which could not be answered by the data of our
survey alone.

This
study employed survey research methodology and is designed to ensure that its
findings adequately reflect the perceptions of Nigerians.The population sample consisted of 11,518
Nigerians equally distributed among male and female adults aged 18 years and
above from all the 36 States in the country and the Federal Capital
Territory.The data collection method
employed was the household survey involving face-to-face personal
interviews.Respondents were selected
through a stratified multi-stage random sampling procedure in order to achieve
a representative sample.Respondents
must have lived in the selected household for a period of not less than six
months.

The
fieldwork for the survey was conducted by Practical Sampling International
(PSI), a reputed research company with a wide experience in quantitative
research in the country from June - July 2013[1].

CLEEN
Foundation employed monitors to observe the conduct of the field work as an
initial quality control measure.The
data processing was done in collaboration with DC Pro-Data Consult Limited with
supervision by the CLEEN Foundation research team.Data entry, cleaning and analysis was done
using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS).

This
presentation explores the total dataset and isolates questions which relate to
road travel, road safety and the activities of the Federal Road Safety Commission
(FRSC) being the chief road safety agency in Nigeria. The presentation then
reflects on the general direction of respondents’ perceptions and the likely
implications of the findings for improving safety in road travels in Nigeria.

Research Findings and Trends

In this
section, I discuss key trends on road safety emergent from our analysis of our
crime victimization data. These findings are group under 7 headings namely: i)
Safety on the Roads; ii) Factors Responsible for Unsafety; iii) Patterns of
Road Accidents; iv) Managing Road Accidents and Safety; v) Driving Patterns and
Culture; and vi) Managing the Okada Challenge.

Section I: Safety on Nigerian Roads

Overall,
Nigerians feel safe on the road. This varied from the overwhelming 91%
perception of safety in Cross River State to the alarming 25% in Yobe State
with a national average of 75% - that is 3 out of 4 Nigerians felt safe on the
roads. The case of Yobe is peculiar since its 25% does not come near the next
state, Kebbi which polled 59%. A trend analysis revealed that the 75%
perception of safety in Nigeria is not news; Nigerians reported 71% in 2010,
76% in 2011 and then a momentary dip to 74% in 2012. When disaggregated by road
type, we found that more Nigerian, 1 in 3 Nigerians (or 31%) felt unsafe on the
expressways while as low as 8% felt unsafe on street lanes. This suggests that
long journey on the express are more dangerous than shorter journeys on the
streets.

Considering
the report of carnage on Nigerian roads, there is good reason to worry that
this high perception of safety on the road is in fact a concession of fatalism
and acceptance of fate rather than the assurance of having accident-free road
trips. Therefore regardless of this verdict of safety on the road, there is
need for further studies into patterns of road usage and safety in Nigeria.

Section II: Drivers of Unsafety on Nigerian Roads

For
those who confessed feeling unsafe on the roads, the survey probed for the key
drivers of their unease. Unsurprisingly, the top 5 factors reported in 2013
were: bad roads, speed, traffic congestion, lack of pedestrian walkways and
finally lack of zebra crossings and pedestrian bridges.

To
better understand the drivers of unsafety, we disaggregated the top 2 factors,
namely bad roads and speed of traffic by states and found that an overwhelming
majority of Yobe State residents (81%) were most concerned about the state of
bad roads in the state. Recall that only 25% of residents of Yobe had reported
feeling safe on the road. Furthermore, only 11% were worried about bad road in
Cross River state where 91% had reported feeling safe on the roads. This then
averages to a 37% concern over bad roads as a factor of unsafety in Nigeria.

In terms
of traffic speed, the national average was 38 – this implies that on a scale,
Nigerians are more concerned about speed of traffic than about state of bad
road. This concern is worst in Abia State where there is a near unanimous
concern over speed of traffic shared by 92% to Zamfara State where only 9% were
concerned about speed of traffic.

When
asked then to proffer suggestions to make roads safer, respondents pointed out
the need to repair the roads and to install streetlights as the most crucial.
Other suggestions included installation of speed breakers and reduction of
speed as well as removal of hawkers from the streets. For other suggestions
which would improve road safety but which are not tied on the quality of roads,
respondents suggested better training for both learners and for qualified
drivers; deployment of measures to reduce traffic speed as well as more public
campaigns and improved enforcement of traffic regulations.

Over
all, while Nigerians would need to see far reaching and comprehensive reforms
to ensure safety on the road, the fast speed of traffic and the bad quality of
roads constitute a bulk of their concerns.

Section III: Patterns of Road Accidents

From our
dataset, we are in position to shed more light on the trends and patterns of
road accidents as observed by Nigerians in 2013. Ab initio, we asked
respondents to share their views on whether they felt that the roads in their
communities were prone to accidents. Across board, an average of 42% of
Nigerians saw the roads as prone to accident; this figure ranged from the
highest figures of 78% in Adamawa State, 73% in Nassarawa and Delta States to
the lowest figures of 20% in Osun and 17% in Jigawa State.

In terms
of actual experience of accidents, the national average was 10%; this means
that 1 in every 10 Nigerians is a survivor or victim of road accidents in
Nigeria. While majority of states where within 5 percentage points above or
below the national average, we saw exceedingly worrying results from a number
of states. On the extreme, more than 1 in 4 (26%) residents of Kogi State are
victims of road accidents. Kogi is closely followed by 25% in Bauchi State and
24% in neighbouring Gombe State and 23% in the FCT and 21% in neighbouring
Nassarawa State. The lowest figures were 6% in Oyo, Osun, Sokoto and Katsina
and finally a 5% in Lagos State. The “twinning effect” in which neighbouring
states share similar road accident patterns comes out between Bauchi and Gombe,
FCT and Nassarawa and also between Kano and Kaduna States. This suggests that
remedial measures in such pairs of states need to be coordinated and
synchronised.

A trend
analysis of road accidents in Nigeria is very illuminating; we saw a 1% drop
from 11% in 2012 to 10% in 2013. But across a 4-year grid, we are seeing nearly
a 50% consistent drop from the 18% recorded in 2010 to the present 10%. In
terms of degree of damage, 60% of the accident cases were serious – this
included the 46% where serious injuries or vehicular damages were reported and
the 14% of the accidents which were fatal. Our data suggests that while the
frequency of accidents is down by 1% from 2012, the gravity of the accidents is
up by 2% as the 60% cases of serious accidents recorded in 2013 were more than
the 58% in 2012.

Calibrating
the accidents by time, we found that no part of the day was significantly
accident free. 32% of accidents occur in the morning, 35% in the afternoon and
the remaining 33% occurred at night. It is possible to theorise that while
accident response must be made available at all times, victims of accidents at
night are particularly more vulnerable as they are less likely to receive the
aid of fellow road users and passers-by who might be available during the day.

Section IV: Managing Road Accidents and Safety

Although
the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) is the main agency mandated to ensure
safety and swift response to accidents on the roads; our survey showed that
Nigerians were more inclined to reporting accidents to the police rather than
the FRSC. Whereas 38% of the victims of road accidents reported their
experience to the police, only 23% reported to the FRSC.

In spite
of the higher figures reported to the police, findings of the survey revealed
that many road accidents are still unreported. Only less than 4 in every 10
respondents (38%) who actually suffered road accident reported to the police;
this means that 60% of road accidents are not reported to the police. When
compared with the 2012 survey, there was a slight improvement on the reported
37% reported to the police. It was further revealed also, that the highest
reported cases of road accidents to police officials were recorded in Sokoto
(80%), Adamawa (77%), and Yobe (76%) while Kwara and Akwa-Ibom both recorded
least with 11% each followed by FCT with 13%.

Comparatively,
only a little above 2 in every 10 (23%) incidences of road accident in Nigeria
are reported to the FRSC; this then means nearly 80% of accidents are not
reported to the FRSC. This figure ranged from Sokoto (47%), Adamawa (46%) and
Kebbi (43%) being the states which led in the reporting to the FRSC, while
states like Katsina and Ebonyi recorded 0% each and were followed by Bayelsa
and Kwara with 7% each, being the lowest. When measured against the 2012
survey, the reporting rate of road accident to the FRSC still remained
unchanged at 23%. It is interesting to note that Sokoto state led both in
reporting to the Police as well as to the FRSC.

Noting
that victims of road accidents tended to report either to the Police (38%) or
to the FRSC (23%), an average of both institutions showed that only about 31%
of road accident incidences are reported to the authorities in Nigeria by 2013.
Why 69% of victims opt not to file reports remains unclear but it negatively
impacts on the road safety efforts of both the police and the FRSC.

Section V: Driving Patterns and Culture

In order
to understand general practices and driving culture among Nigerians, we posed
questions about a number of practices in order to determine what was common on
the roads and how these could affect road safety in Nigeria.

a)Possession
of Valid Drivers Licence by State

To
determine the average skills drivers have in Nigeria and to measure compliance
with national regulation on the use of drivers’ licences, we found that across
Nigeria in 2013, only 13% of all motorists had valid driver’s licences. Meagre
as this figure might be, it is still a percentage drop from the 14% reported in
2012. When disaggregated across States, we found that only 1% of motorist in
Zamfara had valid driver’s licence, 4% in Katsina, and 6% Kano. Anambra had the
highest valid driver’s licence with 22%, followed by Abia (19%), Ekiti (18%),
FCT and Edo scored 17% each. Nationally, it is clear that nearly 80% of those
who drive do so without valid drivers’ licences.

Yet it
should not be assumed that drivers who hold valid licences are actually well
trained. Only slightly over 1 in 2 drivers (55%) did go through a driving test
before the licence was issued to them. This means that 45% of holders of valid
drivers’ licences were not tested before being issued licences. Across states,
100% of respondents in Zamfara who had licences also went through testing.
Zamfara was followed by Cross River (96%) and Edo (85%). On the bottom we have
Yobe (26%) Kebbi (25%) and Delta (17%). Zamfara State presents an interesting
puzzle: although only 1% of drivers posses valid licences which suggests high
disregard for traffic laws and regulation; all those who do possess the
licences actually went through testing before receiving them which suggests
universal compliance with the law.

b)Use of
Seat Belts

The use
of seat belt is a valuable indicator of road users’ own safety consciousness.
In Nigeria, we found that only 14% of the respondents across the country use
seat belt “often” or “fairly regularly” when driving while another 14% said
they “occasionally” use seat belt. On the other hand, 72% said they “hardly” or
“never” use seat belt when driving. Aggregating those who used the seat belt
every time or fairly regularly, we found that the use of seat belt is highest
in states like Benue 41%, Bauchi 38% and Yobe 33%, while state like Ogun and
Sokoto scored 3% each and Abia 2% were on the bottom rung. Osun and Zamfara
state both scored 0% each which means none of the drivers interviewed in the
state used the seat belt either every time or fairly regularly.

c)Motorists’
behaviour

In an
attempt to ascertain the prevalence of some observed practices on the roads, we
asked respondents to report the frequency of a number of practices on the
roads.

Engaging
in races among drivers is reportedly very common and is a common cause of
accidents. As much as 73% of drivers admitted participating in these races
occasionally, while 5% admitted to doing it often/always. Other practices
included underestimating the speed of on-coming vehicles when overtaking; 66% of
respondents admitted to having done this occasionally at some point while
driving and another 7% said they do it often/always. Driving on the wrong side
of the road (e.g. one way or on dedicated bus lanes) is another common
practice; 77% of respondents reported this behaviour either occasionally, often
or always when driving. But not all observed behaviours are dangerous and
accident prone, 35% of surveyed drivers often or always stop for pedestrians to
cross while another 44% do so sometimes.

d)Driving
Under the Influence of Alcohol

The
abuse of alcohol has been identified as a leading cause of accidents across the
globe and has been identified as a leading traffic offence committed by
drivers. In the absence of a robust system for testing level of alcohol
consumption by drivers in Nigeria, we resorted to self reportage to determine
the frequency of this practice by asking drivers how often they consume
alcoholic beverages before driving.

72% of
surveyed drivers in the rural areas and 74% in the urban areas reported that
they “sometimes” consume alcohol before driving while another 5% (both rural
and urban) said they do this “often/always”; only a total of 22% of respondents
in the rural areas and 21% in the urban reported that they “hardly” do this.
Obviously the trend of alcohol consumption among drivers is a common phenomenon
in both rural and urban areas of Nigeria and there are at the moment no easy
ways of enforcing the regulation against the abuse of alcohol among drivers and
passengers do not have the means to know the level of intoxication of a driver
before embarking on a journey.

Section VI: Managing the Okada Challenge

The use
of motorcycles as commercial taxis (commonly called Okada) has become popular
in Nigeria and elsewhere in Africa. While this means of transportation is
favoured by commuters for its ability to reach remote areas with poor road
infrastructure, it is also notorious for causing traffic congestion and
disorder as well as the leading vehicle involved in road accidents in Nigeria.
In recent years, there have been campaigns and laws in some states to ban this
means of transportation or to limit its usage to rural areas. Those who favour
the proposals to ban Okadas refer to the order that would be restored to the
roads without them and the rate of accidents that is likely to drop.
Conversely, others worry about the hardships citizens would be exposed to
especially where taxis and busses are not available.

In 2013,
nearly half (47%) of the road accidents in Nigeria involved an Okada. Other
vehicles involved in road accidents included commercial minibuses (30%), cars
(7%), private buses (7%) and commercial luxury buses (7%). Trucks and trailers
were the least accident prone vehicles on the roads with 3% followed by
minivans and SUVs (4%).

So
should Okada be banned in Nigeria or not? A national average of 36% of the
respondents interviewed nationwide expressed their support for the banning of
commercial motorcycles.Disaggregating
this support for banning by states, it was revealed that there was nearly a
unanimous consensus among residents in Bayelsa and Plateau (90% each), followed
by Abia (81%), Imo (77%), and Rivers (70%). The lowest support for the banning
of Okada came from Kaduna and Oyo (15% each), Kebbi (14%), Katsina and Zamfara (both
13%), Ondo (12%) and Kwara (11%). 41% of those who supported the banning of
Okada said their main reason is that it cause accidents; this finding agrees
with the high frequency of okadas in road accidents as observed above. Another
34% said okada promotes crime while 26% supported the ban because too many
people die in okada accidents. Others (25%) were concerned about the reckless
driving of Okada riders, 6% said it cause traffic congestion on roads while
another 3% expressed their support due to the menace/trouble Okada usually
cause to pedestrians.

Close to
3 in every 5 respondents (57%) opposed the proposal to ban okada. Common reason
given by respondents for the ban was that it will create unemployment (54%),
32% said it will increase crime another 32% also said it will increase
suffering of the poor and 9% said they did not support due to the social unrest
or strike actions which could result from such a ban. There was a direct
correlation between the support and opposition for okada as States where
opposition was fiercest were Kwara (94%), Ondo (84%), Zamfara and Ebonyi (both
83%)while the opposition was weakest in
Rivers (27%), Imo (22%), Abia (18%), Plateau (15%) and Bayelsa (7%).

Section VII: Perceptions on the FRSC

For the
Federal Road Safety Commission to effectively discharge its mandate, a certain
degree of trust, support and confidence by the Nigerian population is required.
Considering that the FRSC has worked among Nigerian road users now nearly 3
decades, we posed a number of questions relating to citizens’ perception of the
FRSC and the work it does.

As an
indicator of prevention, citizens were asked how effective they thought the
FRSC was in reducing road accident and fatalities in the country. A large
number, 7 in 10 Nigerians (70%) rated the FRSC as “ineffective”; nearly a third
(27%) was of the view that the FRSC was “effective” while 3% were undecided.

Nearly 1
in 2 Nigerian (48%) were of the view that they were likely to be made to pay a
bribes (that is offer money, beside any official levies or charges) when they
approach the FRSC to get help or services. Almost an equal number (45%)
disagreed and uphold that they were unlikely to have to pay bribes to the FRSC.
Evidently, Nigerians seem undecided on the likelihood of demand for bribe by
the FRSC.

Besides
the likelihood to pay bribe, 1 in 5 Nigerian (20%) have had actual experience
of being asked to pay bribes by the FRSC before official services could be
rendered to them in the past 12 months. While this is a worrying statistic, it
is indeed a drop from the 26% demand for bribe reported in 2012. Across
Nigeria, the demand for bribe by the FRSC officials was not evenly spread out;
the most severe instances were recorded in Adamawa (67%), Ogun (60%), Ebonyi
and Edo (50%), Anambra (47%), Kebbi (45%), Kano (44%), Imo (42%), which were
more than twice the national average of 20%. The lowest incidences were
recorded in Bauchi and Abia, which were all 0% each, followed by Osun and
Plateau which recorded 3% and 5% respectively.

Towards Improved Public Safety on the Roads:
Recommendations

In view
of the findings presented above, a number of suggestions are recommended to
improving road safety in Nigeria.

·To check the abuse of alcohol by drivers on the
roads, we recommend the deployment of breath analysers on strategic points on
our expressways. The FRSC and other law enforcement officials on road patrols
should be equipped with such devices to check drivers and enforce the laws
where deviation is observed. All public bus parks should be equipped with
breath analysers to check and ensure that only sober drivers are allowed to
leave such parks.

·A national audit of road availability and quality
by state. Such an audit will show clearly the types of roads available to
commuters and their current state of repairs and thus better informing holistic
road repairs and management efforts of all government departments.

·Installation of speed breakers in residential and
congested neighbourhood: the installation of well-designed speed breakers in
busy communities would ensure that drivers reduce speed and thus allow for
pedestrians to move about with greater ease.

·Installation of ICT devises to check speed: There
is need to deploy motion detectors, cameras and other modern ICT devices along
major highways to alert authorities on drivers’ overspeeding and allow for the
erring driver to be apprehended and disciplined.

·Installation of pedestrian bridges and zebra
crossing: there is need to ensure that pedestrian crossing spots are installed
and clearly marked in residential and commercial zones.

·There is need for the standardization of drivers
instruction process in Nigeria with driving schools registered and regulated to
ensure that all new drivers are imparted the same amount of training and are
adjudged fit to drive by the authorities before being issued with driving
licences.

·There is need for improved sensitization,
collaboration between the FRSC and all sections of society to pass the message
of safety on Nigerian roads.

[1] The time frame for which the data collected was between August 2012
and June 2013.

Cleen Foundation is holding a two-day seminar.
Nigeria needs a comprehensive national data bank for its security and
anti-graft agencies to be able to effectively check corruption and
crime, security and human rights experts have said.

This was stated on Monday in Minna, Niger State, during a two-day leadership seminar for police oversight agencies.

The seminar was organised by Cleen Foundation in conjunction with the
Justice for All (J4A) Program of the U.K.’s Department for
International Development. It is designed to enhance service delivery
through greater inter-institutional collaboration to oversee the police.

Speaking at the occasion, Ben Angwe, the Executive Secretary,
National Human Rights Commission, noted that the major problem the
country has is that of data and statistics.

He said most of the fraud taking place across Nigeria is as a result
of the lack of a data bank which would reveal history and details of
perpetrators; and thus encourage accountability.

Mr. Angwe, a professor, said this while reacting to reports about
several Nigerians joining the police with the use of fake degree
certificates or original ones belonging to other people.

“Nigerians want to get overnight money thus use other people’s
certificates. We must begin with data bank of all citizens in order to
tackle this,” he stated.

The don said lack of data also encourages the police in criminalizing
innocent Nigerians in order to appear effective; while this leads to
citizens staying away from the police as a result of mistrust.
He said a data bank was also absent in professional bodies including lawyers association.

“If we are very sincere in helping this country, the first point to
look at is data. How many Nigerians have their data registered in a data
bank? We don’t have even fingerprints. Nigeria today has no data bank.

“People can pick birth certificates from any state while a person has
several birth certificates bearing different dates of birth collected
from different parts of the country. Lack of data assists false
declaration and is a major problem facing this country,” Mr. Angwe said.

To successfully establish an effective national data bank, Etannibi
Alemika, the Chairman, Board of Directors of Cleen Foundation, said
there was need for a better political system.

Mr. Alemika, a professor at the University of Jos, said that as first
line of action, fingerprints of all suspects in police custody be
collected and computerised.

He also called for the capturing of all police officers’ fingerprints
in a database alongside their details for a more robust oversight and
accountability of the Police Force.

“Voters registers could also be used in capturing a national data
base. Criminals who transform into kidnappers, armed robbers, among
others, after elections equally vote during elections as political thugs
to politicians,” Mr. Alemika said.

The two dons called for an effective internal control in the police; saying its absence could frustrate effective oversight.

“With time, things will improve but we must have a foundation. We owe
this generation of Nigerians by sitting up and this can be done by
being evidence based,” Mr. Angwe said.

Wednesday, 11 December 2013

·Insurgency in the
North East and communal, ethnic or religious contentions in parts of the
country

·Defection of G5
governors to opposition party and possible disagreement over leadership/
candidates

·Contention over
candidates including zoning of presidential or gubernatorial candidates

·Non collaborative
engagement of informal policing groups

Key Mitigating Factors:

·Coordinated
activities of election security stakeholders;

·Collaboration
with informal policing groups

·Early preparation
for the election by INEC and security agencies

·Prosecuting of
Electoral Offenders

·Collaborating
between security agencies and early response to identified threats

·Sensitization of citizenry on election security
issues

Political Context

Political discourse in Nigeria in the
last few months has been dominated by the internal crisis of the ruling PDP,
the defection of the G7 governor’s to form the New PDP (nPDP), the increasing
campaigns by the major opposition, APC, and the more recent defection of G5 (of
the nPDP G7) governors to APC. The security situation in several parts of the
country remains very precarious with intermittent Boko Haram attacks despite of
the State of Emergency in some states in North East. Communal violence, armed
robbery and kidnapping are also still prevalent in several other parts of the
country. Currently, there is one form of military deployment or the other in
over two thirds of the 36 states in Nigeria. As we move closer to the 2015
elections, the security challenges in various parts of the country will be more
about drawing a line between insurgency, militancy, criminality and politics.
And this would be one of the defining features of the 2015 election.

Preparations for the Elections

The body language of
most political actors in the country seems to suggest that preparations towards
the 2015 elections have commenced in earnest throughout the six geopolitical zones
and in all the states. The political environment is increasingly been defined
by contentions over the presidential election and gubernatorial candidates
across the major political parties.However, preparations at the level of the Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) are yet to tangibly match the individual commitment of
aspiring candidates and the security realities on ground.The voters register is yet to be updated, the
relevant amendment to the electoral laws are yet to be carried out and there
seems not to be any election specific security plan and strategy despite the
security threats across the country. Given INEC’s performance during the recent
election in Anambra state, there is a general fear that a repeat in the 2015
election will certainly cause major violence across the country.

Gender Dimension

In all six geopolitical
zones of the country, socio cultural factors continue to undermine female
participation in politics even as the 35% affirmative action remains far from
being realized. Despite their poor representation, elected women politicians
appear to also face far greater challenges both in the process of seeking for
election and when occupying an elected office as well. Female representation by
appointment into political offices could provide a veritable source of bridging
the gender gap in politics but this does not seem to add much to the avowed 35%
affirmative action in all the states.

Presence and Activities of Non-State Actors

The poor economic situation in the
country has made politics an attractive enterprise to many unemployed youths
organized under different names in all the states. The militarization of the
youths as instruments for systemic violence during elections underlines the
need for careful and sustained engagement by INEC, the security agencies and
civil society. The terrorist activities in Borno, Yobe and to some extent
Adamawa State where there is currently massive circulation of small arms and
light weapons raises a lot fears. Additionally, the heavy presence and
activities of the military and the occurrence of communal/religious conflicts,
especially in some Northern States, have sufficiently militarized many youths
such that military hardware may be used with little training once acquired. The
rise of an anti-terrorist youth force, the Civilian JTF, immediately comes to
mind here. While at present these groups have assisted in restoring peace in
many parts of the state, there is need to review their operations and develop
an institutional oversight / accountability mechanisms to check possible
excesses that might develop.

There are also several non-state actors
involved in security related activities across the country, most of them
existing as informal policing groups otherwise known as vigilante or
neighbourhood watch groups in all the
states. State governments have either directly been funding some of these
vigilante outfits or have purposely established them with the justification
that the state needs to ensure that appropriate measures are taken to
ensurethe safety and security of the
people living within the State and boost economic activities.

An increase in cult activities among young
peoples in some south east states, especially Ebonyi and Imo was also noticed.
This does not portray good for future elections because of high patronage by
some politicians to some of these groups.

Migration and Internal Displacement

The occurrence of
conflicts within the North-East has led to massive redistribution of population
that may likely impact on the conduct of elections in 2015. Massive
displacement of people away from hot spots of violence from Borno and Yobe
States in particular underscores the need for early update of voters register
so that people are not disenfranchised. More importantly, internally displaced
persons due to insurgency in these states are perceived to be disenchanted with
the way and manner their welfare has been handled by governments so that voter
apathy may be imminent in some areas. In other areas where communal conflict is
responsible for displacement of people as in Taraba and Bauchi, there is likely
to be remnants of light weapons within the population for use during elections.
Above all, the dislodgement of Boko Haram sect from the cities to camps in the
surrounding forests is likely to affect the 2015 elections in the event they
launch attack.

Violent Hot Spots

The States have been mapped according to
identified hotspots showing places to keep under close security watch for
possible outbreak of violence before, during and after the elections. We
categorized them using traffic light signals (green, amber and red) to indicate
levels of threat; green indicating stability/lowest threat states and red
indicating the highest threat level/ most volatile states. The measures used
for the categorization include history of violence, degree of control by
incumbent and relationship with the federal government, stability of internal
state party politics, existence of terrorist/militant activity, state of
emergency or communal/religious conflict, bid for second term by incumbent
governor, zoning arrangement etc.

i.The increasing conflict within the ruling party
is a major risk factor. The recent defection of the G5 governors is not only
generating ripples in their states, but it is also deeply vibrating in the
entire country.The political forces
within the party and beyond are strengthening position; if these internal
conflicts are not properly managed they could escalate into violent political
conflagration in 2015.

ii.The defection of PDP members into APC could be a
major security concern. With the history of mutual distrust, political
contentions and almost annihilative posturing of contending forces now in the
same party, it appears the APC may not be big and elastic enough to accommodate
these varied groups. With this new development in APC there is definitely going
to be a huge contention over control of the party, leadership and candidates,
some of the contentions could spiral into violence.

iii.Vote rigging or perceived rigging will be the
major trigger of violence especially around the presidential election. It was
perceived vote rigging that led to the 2011 post-election violence. The level
of awareness amongst citizens is very high now and so will be the drive for
mandate protection; manipulation of election result could result into violence.

iv.There are increasing contentions over where the
President of the country should come from. This is a continuation of the
controversy that preceded the 2011 election and has continued to shape the
national politics since then. Like what happened in 2011, if the ruling elite
do not manage the situation properly, it could escalate into a huge national
crisis. Similar situation are also emerging at the state level where senatorial
districts within states are demanding for a taste of the governorship;

v.Activities of insurgence groups, like Boko Haram
and Ansaru, and local militia remain a major threat to elections, particularly
in North East Nigeria.

Mitigating Factors and Recommendations

i.Election related stakeholders – including
security agencies, INEC, political parties and civil society groups must
commence preparation for the 2015 election and mainstream conflict management
in their plans. A quarterly security situation review can be very helpful for
INEC, law enforcement agencies and CSOs;

ii.The electoral commission should ensure early
preparation for the elections. Some of these preparatory issues should include
update of electoral laws, delimitation of constituencies and update of voters’
register;

iii.The government should intensify effort in
addressing the Boko Haram insurgences to avoid disruption of election
activities;

iv.The existence and prevalence of informal police
groups such as vigilantes across the country underscores the need for
collaboration between the formal and informal policing groups in the country,
provided there is a framework for such collaboration and partnership. Mapping,
identifying and capacity building for informal policing groups should be
considered in order to strengthen community participation in election security
management. There is a need for development of a code of conduct for these
groups and issues such recruitment, training, accountability needs to be
addressed in the Code of conduct.

v.The
criminal justice system should be strengthened to ensure prosecution of
instigators/perpetrators of violence and other forms of electoral offences.
This would serve as a warning signal and deterrence to future offenders;

vi.INEC
should work with key institutions such as the National Orientation Agency (NOA)
to sensitizing the electorate on the need to eschew violence and work for
credible elections;

vii.Inter-agency
cooperation among security agencies should be strengthened to allow for
effective intelligence sharing and early response to identified threats.
Security agencies should pay close attention to key violent hotspots with a
view to policing them effectively and mitigating threats to security around the
elections.

A Non-Governmental Organisation, CLEEN
Foundation, has identified 12 states that could be placed under close
security watch for possible outbreak of violence before, during and
after the 2015 general election.

The states, according to the group, are Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue,
Borno, Yobe, Adamawa and Taraba. Others are Kaduna, Kano, Sokoto, Rivers
and Delta.

The foundation said it used various parametres to designate the states
as violence-prone, including history of violence, communal or religious
conflict, terrorism or militancy, state of emergency, bid for second
term by the governors and zoning arrangement by political parties.

The Programme Officer of the foundation, Chinedu Nwagwu, who addressed a
press conference in Abuja yesterday, explained that the crisis in the
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the recent defection of five
governors to the All Progressives Congress (APC) might escalate into
violent political conflagration in 2015 if not properly managed.

According to him, the defection by the governors could pose a major
security concern because the APC may not be elastic enough to
accommodate the mutual distrust, political contentions and the posturing
of the contending forces and other varied groups and interests now in
the party.

"With this new development in APC, there is definitely going to be a
huge contention over control of the party, leadership and candidates,
some of the contentions could spiral into violence," Nwagwu said.

The foundation noted that vote rigging would majorly trigger violence
during the presidential election, adding that it was perceived that vote
rigging led to the 2011 post-election violence.

Nwagwu observed that the level of awareness among citizens was high now
and so would be the drive for mandate protection which could
precipitate violence if attempts were made to manipulate the election.

He therefore called for inter-agency cooperation among security
agencies and strengthening of intelligence-sharing and early response to
identified threats.