“While the 2018 RVO declined from last year’s levels, we see little relief ahead for RIN prices and expect D6 and D4 RINs to remain in the 70-80cts/gal and $1.00/gal range, respectively,” TPH said.

The investment bank’s main takeaways from the 2018 RVO proposal include: the Trump administration sending a signal that it intends to protect the ethanol industry and not appease calls from U.S. refiners to lower blending requirements; ethanol blend wall issues above 10% persisting longer-term; biodiesel continuing to fill the void of challenged advanced renewable production; and no change in the point of obligation away from refiners.