Before you immediately say No, please understand this has been an ongoing discussion over the past month, and there are posters on both sides of the discussion. Of those who say yes, even still most feel (from what I can tell) that you only draft a developmental guy in the lower rounds (4+), and only if they don't think Zac Robinson can be that guy so you go into next year with Stafford, Hill and ZR/Dev Guy. This is all assuming that Stanton proves that "He is who we think he is" and sucks up the end of this season and is out of town before next. My view (and a limited number of others) is that Drafting Andrew Luck or another top quality QB (IF WE ARE DRAFTING TOP 3 AND A ROOKIE WAGE SCALE IS IN PLACE) is not a dumb idea as it is hedgeing our bets that Stafford May not stay healthy through next season and may not end up being the Franchise QB we need. It does not mean we don't like Stafford, only that we are concerned about him staying healthy.

THE REST OF THIS POST IS FROM THE JUNGLE FORUM

vankman79 wrote:

he has had 2 seassons by general rule you give a player 3 seasons before handing in their grade. therefore if it is believed that shoulder injury can be come back from with no ill effects you continue to build on schedule. must it be a concern that stafford hasnt played a full season without multipple injuries, for sure it is. what if the dallas cowboys gave up on troy aikman. you get what im saying. you cant get off schedule building this team by taking a qb in the early rounds of the draft yet. stafford gets 1 more year and if injuries continue to prevent him from playing then it will be time to start looking elsewhere.

vankman79 wrote:

wayneO i know right but everybody is freaking out like OMG we need a qb. hell it may be true its just to quick to make that move. i think we need to continue on building the defense. when you have the best defense in the world you dont need a good qb (hhmmmm hhmmmm trent dilfer). i think if we can put solid lbs on the field, a shut down corner, and rebuild the offensive line starting with the little guy in the middle we will be just fine. i think our running game would come to life and we would step into top 10 on defense. i know its a tall order but if they put the same effort into those positions in the offseason like they did last year we will make huge strides.

I agree they should not give up on Stafford. As long as he is healthy he is the starter and future of this team. That doesnt preclude hedging our bets (as i have said in every discussion about this topic) and drafting a QB. If the worse case scenario is that Stafford is healthy and we have another potential quality QB who gets a year to learn behind him and could then be traded if he stays healthy (teams need quality QBs every year) that is not the end of the world to me. Yes having another starter would be nice on D. BUt we both know if stafford gets hurt in game #3 or something, then he probably isnt the QB of the future and now we waste another 13 games, another offseason, draft the QB then, give him another 2 years to prove if hes the guy or not, and by then CJ is gone as will potentially be other top Players who willb e sitting through more 4-12 seasons. Its no guarantee that will happen.. nobody knows what will.

My gut and Stafford Injury history tell me that if we draft a QB he is playing before the end of next year. I dont think people are dumb for disagreeing with me.. its a matter of opinion. My opinion is that Stafford COULD BE the Face of the franchise for another decade... but its more likely he gets injured and we are replacing him in the next few years. Id rather hedge the bets now and be ready for it, rather than basing the next 3 years win-loss record on someone who seems to get injured every 3rd game.

On a side note, NOBODY, especially me is "Freaking Out" OMG BENCH STAFFORD WE NEED A QB... Nobody. But a few people here have stated that they agree with me that he likely wont stay healthy and wouldnt mind us drafting a QB. If we don't we don't. Its not the end of the world. Either way I will be praying Stafford stays healthy and I am wrong. I liked watching him play at Georgia and Like watching him play as a Lion. THat doesnt mean I cant feel that we should draft another top QB in case he goes down at the beginning of the season... yet again.

As far as "Best Defense.. Dont need a Good QB".. that is an older philosophy if you ask me. Every Year the Rules more and more favor QBs & WRs making the game more and more about Offense. It's unfortunate but thats what people want to see so that is the direction the NFL is pushing. And if you think thats going to change.. just consider the new rules being implemented this year mid season that further weaken defense in general.

By My Count 26 of those 36 teams were led by BadA$$/HOF/ProBowl QBs (and thats not counting Eli or Big Bens Rookie Season) with 10 Teams Being "All Defense Based" [Includes BJ & CC who had ProBowl years]

Tell me again about trying to build an All Star D to get to the SB.

To Be a top 5 D we need 4 if not 5/6 Quality D Starters. To Be a top 5 Offense we JUST NEED A QB thats Healthy. Yes we need an Oline, but with this Oline and a 2nd/3rd String QB we were a decent offense up until the Jets game when the team deflated, and this was against decent teams.

As Far as Drafting a QB.. You can argue with me and opine all you want, but to get all huffy and puffy and say its dumb and I have no idea what Im talking about is just plain asinine. Ive got an opinion and I've been backing it up with fact for the past month regarding this topic and the ONLY counterargument has been "Lets cross our fingers and pray Stafford stays healthy..". So don't say its stupid because you think I have some grudge agaisnt Staff when Ive been a fan of his since Georgia.

As a Final Point. I (and the other who agree with me) have stated you can ONLY draft a Rd 1 QB if a Rookie Wage scale is put in place to the tune of a top 3 pick making ~ 15-20 Million and not 70+. In addition.. what happens if we pick a Great D player or even an LT. And we do good next year, but Staff goes down. And we end up winning 7 games and Pick ~ 10-15. We may get lucky and have someone fall, but that is even less likely if a Wage scale is put into place as many more teams will trade into the top 10, especially to get QBs. IF NO ROOKIE WAGE SCALE IS PUT IN PLACE THEN I WOULD SAY WE CANNNOT DRAFT A QB HIGH and would Agree with drafting D (BPA) or OL.

EDIT: Vankman. I only quoted you since most of the data in my post is in regards to your comments. But I dont mean to come off as agressive, and the bolded comments was not directed at you but the Legion of people "Attacking" me for my opinion over the past Month. I just wanted to make that clear... we are all entitled to our opinions, but I am sick of people pretending this has no merit when it blatantly does.

December 2nd, 2010, 5:48 pm

TheRealWags

Modmin Dude

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 amPosts: 12488

Re: Draft A QB or No? - Also QB Importance vs Building a Top

Great topic! It's been making its way into several threads and it's great idea to consolodate it here. Thanks DJ-B!

Each week, we rewind the game film to highlight the star-worthy performances that could impact the 2011 draft rankings:

• Considering that he entered the week No. 1 in my mock draft, it appeared impossible for Stanford redshirt sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck to raise his stock.

Luck did just that as the Cardinal annihilated Oregon State 38-0 Saturday night to position themselves for a berth in a BCS bowl game.

Luck was deadly efficient, completing 21 of 30 passes for 304 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions. His four TD passes give him 28 on the year, a new Stanford record formerly held by a guy named Elway.

It is hyperbole to compare Luck to any of the all-time greats. Luck, for as good as he is, obviously hasn't done a thing at the professional level.

A number of scouts over the long weekend made it clear that the comparison to some of the all-time greats aren't merely media hype -- the scouts are drawing parallels, too.

Luck's size, arm strength and surprising speed earn high grades from scouts. His accuracy, ability to read defenses and poise are earning even more exemplary marks.

One key to disrupting any quarterback is pressure up the middle -- and most any mechanism that would throw off a passer's timing. Oregon State senior DT Stephen Paea was again dominant (he led OSU with eight tackles and contributed two tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble), but Luck's ability to side-step him while keeping his eyes downfield and firing strikes gave an emphatic answer to one of scouts' few remaining questions -- whether Luck had the ability to translate to the speed and pressure of the NFL.

Luck's four touchdown passes covered an average of 36 yards. They came on a variety of routes and reads by Luck. On the first, taking the ball from center, Luck dropped back looked right to move the free safety, turned and fired quickly down the left seam. He perfectly led tight end Zach Ertz for a 21-yard score. Luck split the free safety and cornerback to hit wideout Doug Baldwin on a deep post for a 42-yard touchdown moments later.

Luck's most impressive touchdown of the night was actually among his shortest throws. Pressure from OSU's front four forced him to step up into the pocket and hit Baldwin on a drag route for approximately 10 yards. Baldwin avoided defenders for the final 20 yards to the end zone. The annual race to be the first pick or highest-rated player at a given position doesn't, in itself, provide the historical data to demonstrate how highly a player is rated by scouts. Obviously, someone is going to be the first pick, regardless of if the draft is considered strong or weak as a whole.

Luck is more than just the best quarterback -- or best player -- potentially available for the 2011 draft, however.

I hope that he stays in school at least 1 more year. That will buy us time to see if Stafford really is injury prone or if the injuries he has had so far were just freak occurrences.

I have supported Stafford since well before we drafted him. But, I am more than a bit disappointed with his injury bug.I want to give him another year. But, I also don't want to miss out on Luck if Stafford can't stay healthy. So, like I said, I just hope that Luck stays in school for another year.

December 3rd, 2010, 10:14 am

Wayne Fontes

Color Commentator - John Madden

Joined: January 19th, 2007, 3:21 amPosts: 1920Location: A2

Re: Draft A QB or No? - Also QB Importance vs Building a Top

I think whether or not he declares for the draft or not depends on a few factors:

1) Jim Harbaugh- If he decides to stay at Stanford or go to Michigan/San Francisco 49ers. If he stays at Stanford there is a good chance that Luck considers staying. If he goes, it would be a lot harder for him to stick around.2) Jake Locker- See what happened to him? He went from possible #1 pick had he come out to being the 3rd QB in the draft this year. He's had a horrid season. Does Luck want to chance his draft status?3) Stanford- It is Stanford and he could decide to stay and finish his degree, ala Toby Gerhart.

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December 3rd, 2010, 12:26 pm

TheRealWags

Modmin Dude

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 amPosts: 12488

Re: Draft A QB or No? - Also QB Importance vs Building a Top

Wayne Fontes wrote:

I think whether or not he declares for the draft or not depends on a few factors:

1) Jim Harbaugh- If he decides to stay at Stanford or go to Michigan/San Francisco 49ers. If he stays at Stanford there is a good chance that Luck considers staying. If he goes, it would be a lot harder for him to stick around.2) Jake Locker- See what happened to him? He went from possible #1 pick had he come out to being the 3rd QB in the draft this year. He's had a horrid season. Does Luck want to chance his draft status?3) Stanford- It is Stanford and he could decide to stay and finish his degree, ala Toby Gerhart.

All good points, but IMO #1 will be, well, the #1 deciding factor for Luck.

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December 3rd, 2010, 12:44 pm

Pablo

RIP Killer

Joined: August 6th, 2004, 9:21 amPosts: 9898Location: Dallas

Re: Draft A QB or No? - Also QB Importance vs Building a Top

Luck looks like a total stud, and everyone knows that I have maintained a keep drafting QBs until you get your franchise QB. I don't see him staying in school regardless and personally I'd rather have a stud QB than anything else - end of story. This is a passing league, driven by QBs and only those who are from the old school defense wins championships mindset don't get that.

FYI - good research DJ-B, I've posted the same sort of info from SB1 on. Here is the other thing, sometimes you get an exception to the rule ie Bears of the 80's or the Ravens, but teams like that are one and done where your HOF QBs win multiple championships. Not going to go thru the reasoning here again, but just look at the history.

I like Stafford and wish he could stay healthy, but that hasn't been the case and our team now rests on his shoulders - which are very questionable. If you have a decent QB do you pass on a chance to get one of the greats - IMO no...

IF there is a rookie pay scale put in place.. count me in with drafting Luck.

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December 3rd, 2010, 2:06 pm

vankman79

Div 1 - Starter

Joined: August 19th, 2010, 9:24 pmPosts: 584

Re: Draft A QB or No? - Also QB Importance vs Building a Top

i dont recall calling you an idiot. im not gonna say that i have never called somebody an idiot on here before but it has been a pretty long time and i learned i cant do it.

im not gonna call you an idiot for feeling like we need a qb. we should have some concern about staffords injuries. but i think there is no way that the lions will select a qb with a 1st rd pick unless they feel the shoulder injury will linger thru his career and i will tell you why i say that.

first off by selecting a qb at the top of the draft your sending the message that the franchise has given up on him. now that could work out either positive or negative. he could go out there and play with a chip on his shoulder and play better than we have ever seen him play. but if it goes the negative route then it can mentally scar him which happens most of the time. it also sends the message to the rest of the team that they are giving up on him. players may lose trust in his leadership and as him as a player.

now is that the message you want to send to your team and your franchise qb. I would say not. that could land mayhew out of a job doing that. people get fired for doing things like this. do you realize how much money that would cost the organization. by doing this it also says whoops, matt staffords not the guy, we f?!ked up to the entire nation and makes them look even more foolish.

and just plain and simple they do believe matt staffords the guy, i believe he is the guy, and i believe most of you think he is the guy as well. like i said earlier which i am being quoted saying at the beginning of this thread, by rule you have to give a player 3 years before handing in his grade so you have to give him another year. and drafting andrew luck may just ruin him and i dont believe the franchise wants to put him in that situation. like i said they believe he is the guy and if there is no lingering effectss of this injury thought to be in his future then they will give him another year before thinking of bringing in somebody else.

but who knows i have been wrong before(enjoy it folks i wont say it often).

December 4th, 2010, 1:32 am

DJ-B

Pro Bowl Player

Joined: April 5th, 2007, 5:51 pmPosts: 2563

Re: Draft A QB or No? - Also QB Importance vs Building a Top

Vank, were all good. hence my final comment in the post. I was responding to you in the original thread I pulled that from, because you had valid points. You were polite and I didnt feel attacked at all, just that we disagreed.

There are others who were quite vehement about how ridiculous it was to even discuss the possibility of drafting Luck(any QB) however, even if we end up drafting at 2 and a rookie scale is in place. That is who the comments were addressed to.

December 4th, 2010, 6:48 am

DJ-B

Pro Bowl Player

Joined: April 5th, 2007, 5:51 pmPosts: 2563

Re: Draft A QB or No? - Also QB Importance vs Building a Top

I specifically believe that the missing part is the Rookie wage scale. If in place, then it frees us up to Draft Luck as Insurance, let him learn from our Staff (lol) both the QB and Coaches who I like (both) and see what we have in Stafford for the next year.

If Stafford is stays healthy, he is our guy and we Trade Luck before the next draft for a bounty of Picks. If Stafford goes down yet again, then we can all be sad, but be able to move on with another one of the other Best Qbs to come out in a long time. Its hedging our bets, thats it. Without a rookie wage scale the whole discussion is moot because of course we cannot afford to draft another 70 million dollar QB.

Combine that with.. hmm, No Top Flite LT, In fact no real all star players this year except Luck so far that is worthy of the #2. So Trading back would be my 2nd option.

The more I think about this, the more I like the idea. But, for the sole purpose of holding him ransom for any team that wants him to trade us a boat load of picks + maybe even a young veteran LB.

Sure, it would be a leap of faith that we would be able to cash in. But, for Luck, It think we can.

edited to add:

This years draft might just put to the test if the Lions REALLY draft BPA.

December 4th, 2010, 10:45 am

vankman79

Div 1 - Starter

Joined: August 19th, 2010, 9:24 pmPosts: 584

Re: Draft A QB or No? - Also QB Importance vs Building a Top

there are pleanty of spectacular players going into the draft. i have seen pleanty of qbs that were sure bets fail. actually more than any position out there. no quarterbacks are sure things. really no players are sure things. i have no problem using a 4th rd or later pick on a qb, but not a 1st rd it just sends the wrong message to your team.

December 5th, 2010, 1:30 am

Blueskies

QB Coach

Joined: September 13th, 2007, 12:43 pmPosts: 3084

Re: Draft A QB or No? - Also QB Importance vs Building a Top

No way does Luck not declare. He's going to be a surefire top five pick, and even if there is a wage scale, he's going to make millions and millions of guaranteed dollars. He can always finish his degree later.

I think the Panthers will probably take him with the #1 pick, leaving the Lions out of the equation.

If he's somehow there, and there is a wage scale, don't take him and trade the pick.

I'm not saying you're stupid for advocating taking Luck in such a situation, but I'd rather take a chance on Stafford. As I said, he hasn't had a significant injury yet, it's only been 2 seasons, he's played well when he's been in the games, and he didn't have an injury history prior to the NFL. Really, I think its just been bad luck, and this will eventually go away.

Also, consider who you'd be trading with, and what you'd potentially get. If it was another team in the top five like Buffalo or Cincy, you'd still get a top five pick plus a 2nd rounder and also a later round pick. You'd still be able to land someone like Patrick Peterson, Bowers, Dareus, Prince Amuk., etc. as well as Greg Jones/Rahim Moore/Ras I-Dowling/Justin Houston (you'd be able to get two of the four because the Lions own 2nd rounder...)

Imagine drafting Bowers, putting him on the line with KVB and Suh, having a secondary with Delmas, I-Dowling, and Chris Houston and a LB core with Greg Jones, Levy, and some decent/good FA. That sounds like a possible top-10 defense right there.

Or, what if a team like Tennessee, who has most of the pieces in place but lacks the stud QB, wants to put together a big package for Luck? You'd probably get multiple 1rst round picks, 2nd, later picks and maybe even a player or two.

I'm all for getting the stud QB, but its just way too premature to give up on Stafford. What Stafford did pan out and you landed enough pieces in the Luck trade to build a formidable defense or great Oline? The Lions would be unstoppable.

December 5th, 2010, 6:14 am

DJ-B

Pro Bowl Player

Joined: April 5th, 2007, 5:51 pmPosts: 2563

Re: Draft A QB or No? - Also QB Importance vs Building a Top

I am definetly fine with trading back.. I just dont want to see us pick a CB at #2, especially when I am not even sure who the top 1 is (I think peterson will be an OK CB in the league but not worth of a top 5 pick since he wont be used as a Returner also which upped his "value" tremedously.)

Currenlty I don't see an LT or DE worthy of #2 (of course we have time yet) and not sure Id be ok with any other position that high.