Is Energo-fascism in Your Future?

by Michael T. Klare

It has once again become fashionable for the dwindling supporters of
President Bush's futile war in Iraq to stress the danger of "Islamo-fascism"
and the supposed drive by followers of Osama bin Laden to establish a
monolithic, Taliban-like regime -- a "Caliphate" -- stretching from
Gibraltar to Indonesia. The President himself has employed this term on
occasion over the years, using it to describe efforts by Muslim extremists
to create "a totalitarian empire that denies all political and religious
freedom." While there may indeed be hundreds, even thousands, of disturbed
and suicidal individuals who share this delusional vision, the world
actually faces a far more substantial and universal threat, which might be
dubbed: Energo-fascism, or the militarization of the global struggle over
ever-diminishing supplies of energy.

Unlike Islamo-fascism, Energo-fascism will, in time, affect nearly every
person on the planet. Either we will be compelled to participate in or
finance foreign wars to secure vital supplies of energy, such as the current
conflict in Iraq; or we will be at the mercy of those who control the energy
spigot, like the customers of the Russian energy juggernaut Gazprom in
Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia; or sooner or later we may find ourselves
under constant state surveillance, lest we consume more than our allotted
share of fuel or engage in illicit energy transactions. This is not simply
some future dystopian nightmare, but a potentially all-encompassing reality
whose basic features, largely unnoticed, are developing today.

These include:

* The transformation of the U.S. military into a global oil protection
service whose primary mission is to defend America's overseas sources of oil
and natural gas, while patrolling the world's major pipelines and supply
routes.

* The transformation of Russia into an energy superpower with control over
Eurasia's largest supplies of oil and natural gas and the resolve to convert
these assets into ever increasing political influence over neighboring
states.

* A ruthless scramble among the great powers for the remaining oil, natural
gas, and uranium reserves of Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and
Asia, accompanied by recurring military interventions, the constant
installation and replacement of client regimes, systemic corruption and
repression, and the continued impoverishment of the great majority of those
who have the misfortune to inhabit such energy-rich regions.

* Increased state intrusion into, and surveillance of, public and private
life as reliance on nuclear power grows, bringing with it an increased
threat of sabotage, accident, and the diversion of fissionable materials
into the hands of illicit nuclear proliferators.

Together, these and related phenomena constitute the basic characteristics
of an emerging global Energo-fascism. Disparate as they may seem, they all
share a common feature: increasing state involvement in the procurement,
transportation, and allocation of energy supplies, accompanied by a greater
inclination to employ force against those who resist the state's priorities
in these areas. As in classical twentieth century fascism, the state will
assume ever greater control over all aspects of public and private life in
pursuit of what is said to be an essential national interest: the
acquisition of sufficient energy to keep the economy functioning and public
services (including the military) running.

The Demand/Supply Conundrum

Powerful, potentially planet-altering trends like this do not occur in a
vacuum. The rise of Energo-fascism can be traced to two overarching
phenomena: an imminent collision between energy demand and energy supplies,
and the historic migration of the center of gravity of planetary energy
output from the global north to the global south.

For the past 60 years, the international energy industry has largely
succeeded in satisfying the world's ever-growing thirst for energy in all
its forms. When it comes to oil alone, global demand jumped from 15 to 82
million barrels per day between 1955 and 2005, an increase of 450%. Global
output rose by a like amount in those years. Worldwide demand is expected to
keep growing at this rate, if not faster, for years to come -- propelled in
large part by rising affluence in China, India, and other developing
nations. There is, however, no expectation that global output can continue
to keep pace.

Quite the opposite: A growing number of energy experts believe that the
global output of "conventional" (liquid) crude oil will soon reach a peak --
perhaps as early as 2010 or 2015 -- and then begin an irreversible decline.
If this proves to be the case, no amount of inputs from Canadian tar sands,
shale oil, or other "unconventional" sources will prevent a catastrophic
liquid-fuel shortage in a decade or so, producing widespread economic
trauma. The global supply of other primary fuels, including natural gas,
coal, and uranium is not expected to contract as rapidly, but all of these
materials are finite, and will eventually become scarce. . . .

The Pentagon: A Global Oil-Protection Service

The most significant expression of this trend has been the transformation of
the U.S. military into a global oil-protection service whose primary
function is the guarding of overseas energy supplies as well as their global
delivery systems . . .

Of course, senior officials and foreign policy elites are generally loath to
acknowledge such crass motivations for the utilization of military force --
they much prefer to talk about spreading democracy and fighting terrorism. . . .