The wait for new data on the Indiana economy produces the same anxiety that a dieter must feel before getting on the bathroom scale in the morning. We know that we might not like the numbers, but we have no choice but to hear what they say. There has been a different atmosphere in the state's economy since last fall, when the manufacturing-led U.S. economic slowdown put wrinkles of worry in policymakers' brows, and gave many Indiana workers an extended holiday vacation. How have these new developments changed the statistics on the Indiana economy?

The Department of Workforce Development's preliminary statistics on Indiana job growth for year 2000 have been telling us that a substantial slowdown in the growth of the state's economy took place last year. But there's nothing really new there. For the last three years, the preliminary job data have portrayed essentially the same pattern -- slow growth. It has only been after passage of time, when more complete source data become available, that those figures have been revised to show growth more in line with the national economy.

That didn't exactly happen this year. With the first major revisions to the state's payroll employment figures now available, the state's overall growth rate was again revised upward. But the average annual job growth of 1.4 percent in year 2000 continues a trend of deceleration that began two years ago. And growth at the end of the year was particularly weak.

The job growth picture was particularly rosy for the Indianapolis MSA. In year 2000, the state's most populous metro area grew its payrolls by an average of 3.1 percent, representing about 27,000 net new jobs. The next fastest MSA, South Bend, managed growth of 2.1 percent, leaving the state's other 10 major cities with growth at or below the state average.

Of course, averaging the beginning and the end of last year into one summary statistic on growth puts the best possible spin on our current economic condition, given the blistering rate of growth of the national economy for the first six months of the year. But it also allows us to escape the trap of putting too much emphasis on a small number of data points, which, with state and regional data, is often a dangerous thing to do.

The more relevant questions about the state of the Indiana economy today, rather than last year, are more difficult to answer. The job data for January 2001, the most recent month currently available, do show a marked weakness in employer hiring in most areas of the state outside Indianapolis. Manufacturing job losses were particularly acute in Bloomington and Kokomo. But the preliminary status of those job estimates makes it impossible to draw firm conclusions.

Another current economic indicator, the unemployment rate, does corroborate the pattern of weakness shown in the preliminary job data, however. The January jobless rate in Indiana grew by a full percentage point over its December rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most of that increase, however, has to do with the seasonal cycle of layoffs that occur in January of every year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the state's unemployment rate rose from 2.8 percent in December to 3.2 percent in January.

Given the weakness of the national manufacturing sector in recent months, it would be prudent to conclude that the state's economy is in poorer health than at this same time a year ago. However, the question of exactly how we are faring will have to wait until reliable estimates make their way to our doors and computer screens.

Patrick Barkey is director of the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research. He has been involved with economic forecasting and health care policy research for over twenty-four years, both in the private and public sector. He served previously as Director of the Bureau of Business Research (now the Center for Business and Economic Research) at Ball State University, overseeing and participating in a wide variety of projects in labor market research and state and regional economic policy issues. He attended the University of Michigan, receiving a B.A. ('79) and Ph.D. ('86) in economics.

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