August catcher rankings

Most fantasy rankings are forged on ‘gut calls’ and the whimsical notions of whoever is compiling the list. Some experts don’t pay for saves, some don’t pay for steals, some wait on pitching, some value upside, some value reliability, and so on. While it might be nice to see plenty of different opinions, it probably doesn’t truly help unless you understand the biases of each individual ranker. This is why some of the writers here at The Hardball Times have created their own, objective valuation methods, outlined here and here (reading, or at least skimming, these introductory articles will give you a much better understanding of the rankings that follow and should help to answer most potential questions).

In accompaniment with Oliver’s rest of season forecasts, we will use these objective formulas to create objective rankings. You may not agree with a particular rank, but you will know how the ranking was calculated and you wont have to guess what the ranker was thinking. This should make adding your own personal adjustments and biases much easier. And perhaps this type of ranking will introduce some potential buys and sells that you may have otherwise overlooked.

These rankings will assume a 12-team league in adjusting for league average. The ordering of players, however, is unaffected; players will rank in identical order for leagues of all sizes.

*Full season = the raw (non-adjusted) full season pace roto score using the roto points above replacement method. This is, essentially, the amount of expected roto points each catcher would score above an empty spot in a lineup over a full season.

Using the roto points above average (rPAA) formula, the average catcher is projected to score 2.82 raw roto points prior to adjusting for league average, with Mike Napoli projected at 3.46. After adjustments, though, you can see there is little difference between any of the players. Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the 12th ranked catcher, are separated by just 1.22 expected rest of season roto points. The E.Y.E.S. method sees a bit more of a difference between first and 12th, but at a gap of just 1.73 roto points, the difference isn’t substantially greater.

The main take-away – at least what the numbers are saying anyways—is that there isn’t much to be gained or lost at catcher from this point forward. There will probably be a catcher or two who far outperforms the rest for the remainder of the season, but none have been outstanding to the point where Oliver believes in them enough to rank them as such.

Analysis

Mike Napoli – Oliver has Mike Napoli as the top ranked catcher going forward, but much of that expected value is tied to a .271 projected batting average. While Napoli is certainly capable of hitting for an average that high for the remainder of the year, he is currently hitting just .227 and is striking out in 30.0 percent of his plate appearances (career 25.2 percent). His plate discipline looks fine, but both his contact percentage and swinging strike rate are higher than his career averages, although not quite enough to justify a 30.0 percent strikeout rate.

I would guess Napoli cuts his strikeouts down to around 27 percent and raises his slightly low .285 BABIP to around .295 the rest of the way. These slight improvements would vastly improve Napoli’s batting average, but only to around .260, which happens to be his career average.

Another objection I have with Napoli’s projection is his RBI rate. Oliver thinks he will drive in about 0.19 runs per at bat. Over the course of his first two seasons in Texas he has averaged just 0.17 RBI per at bat and he has played much worse this season (0.13 RBI/AB). Given his struggles, and the fact that he is hitting eighth in the Rangers lineup, I wouldn’t pay for much more than 0.15 RBI per at bat, which would equal about 26 RBI from this point forward.

These may seem like minor or futile adjustments, but they move Napoli’s down to a score of 0.26 roto points above replacement (0.23 EYES), which, over a full season, would translate to a difference of about 1.07 roto points. This also moves Napoli down to catcher number three according to the rPAA formula and fifth according to EYES.

Miguel Montero – Currently hitting .282, Oliver believes that Montero can maintain that same average for the remainder of the season. But, Montero is striking out at a rate that would tie his career high (23.7 percent) and is benefiting from a .356 BABIP, 43 points higher than his career average. He is a career .273 hitter, and with an inflated strikeout rate, BABIP regression should probably send his average into the .260s.
This adjustment doesn’t change Montero’s ranking, but it does move his roto scores below league average (-0.02 and -0.03).

Ramon Hernandez and Wilin Rosario – Oliver seems to think that Hernandez is going to get 145 at bats from this point forward. Hernandez, however, has only played in seven games since July 13 when he came off the disabled list. During that time Rosario has only played in eight games, so it isn’t like there is a clear starter among the two. Given that Hernandez is 36 years old, and that Rosario is the Rockies future at the position, and that the Rockies are nowhere near competitive this season, it would seem like Rosario would get at least a slight majority of the playing time behind the plate going forward. And at the very least, it would be hard to project much more than a 50/50 split between the two for the remainder of the year.

Adjustments: Hernandez to 100 at bats (moves down to 28th and 29th among catchers). Rosario to 125 at bats (moves up to 26th and 26th among catchers).

Comments

As far as Miguel Montero goes…..bench him against lefties. If you have a roster spot you use for streaming, pick up a catcher you like for that day and between Montero and your streamer you’ve #1 overall catcher production. I used my waiver priority to nab Montero, dealt Buster Posey for Dickey and since then Montero’s batted .327 for me and tallied 14 runs, 4 homers, 22 RBI and 20 BB’s in 107 AB’s.

some of these rankings are way off IMO…here are a few things that i just dont understand

1.)dont see Napoli as being #1…Posey, Mauer, McCann, Montero, and Santana have all been hitting much better either for the entire season, or recently when talking Santana and McCann

2.) Carlos Ruiz is ranked too low…i know all the peripherals and guys at FanGraphs will tell you that Ruiz is just gonna fall off the map sometime soon, just like Ryan Vogelsong and CJ Wilson and every other stud who doesnt excel in the various peripheral stats they seem to consider more important than the actual counting stats that matter in fantasy…thats a whole other story though…never understand that…if a guy produces in W-L, QS, ERA, WHIP, and BAA like Vogelsong is still valued like Justin Masterson or worse…makes no sense…getting back to Chooch…at what point are people gonna realize that this guy has been essentially a .300 hitter for the last 3 years or so…and that his power is starting to develop finally?

3.) Avila, JPA(DL), Salty, Soto, Buck, and a few others are all ranked way too high…Avila has been horrific this year unless you play in an OBP league…if hes lucky he gets maybe 1 hit a night, he doesnt play against lefties for the most part, and hes hitting 8th in the lineup, whereas last year he was hitting like 6th

4.) THe rankings of Ramon Hernandez and Willin Rosario actually made me laugh out loud. How can you have a guy whose hitting below the Mendoza line ahead of the likes of Grandal/Doumit?…i mean this cant be serious…you cant honestly have Rosario behind Chris Snyder? Jason Castro? Josh Thole? Kurt Suzuki?…did i miss something or is he not leading all catchers in HR with 16?…on pace to hit over 20? as a rookie more or less…and i think its a huge reach to say Hernandez is going to get 100+ ABs…i think if the rockies have any sense at all, they will play Rosario close to 75% of the remaning games…his power is real. i just am honestly flabergasted at how low hes ranked. it blows my mind. even moved up into the mid-20s….who would ever take John Buck or Rod Barajas, both of which arent even the best catcher on their team, ahead of Rosario? IMO, he should be slotted right around 9-12….whats the difference between he and Salty?…or he and JPA?…other than that Rosario is actually having a better year…i understand in Roto hes not as valuable, but hes still more valuable than ANYONE listed past Chooch…Wieters, Lucroy, Perez should all be further up as well…you could make an argument for them ahead of Rosario…what really takes the cake though?…the fact that you have Derek Norris, who was so bad in Oakland, that they traded for the Brewers #3 catcher who had just been DFA’d so they could send Norris back to the minors, ahead of Rosario.

sleeper pick: Steve Clevenger—clear path to playing time now…dont think Wellington Castillo will play more than 2 games per week…hits righties well…decent pop…could be Lucroy-like IMO…also, i kinda like Kottaras…i think he will start at least 3 games per week in Oakland as a LH batter…certainly worth a peak in AL-Only or deep 2-catcher leagues

Will, these rankings have Chooch as a .300 hitter in these rankings, but you’re overstating his power gains. A lot of it has to do with luck – HR/FB% fluctuates heavily based on luck, and, well, Chooch is getting lucky. His 16.5% mark is more than twice his career mark and is in the ballpark of 4x his rate from last season. Six of his homers so far this season have had “Just Enough” to make it out – meaning on a day with normal wind, or perhaps in a larger park, they wouldn’t have. Explore it a little more here (http://hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2012_155&type=hitter), but just because he’s been excellent and has previously been overrated doesn’t mean he’ll continue at an unsustainable rate.

@Will:
I’m not sure you read the explanation at the top, or my two introductory articles liked to in the first paragraph.

These rankings have been created using a combination of Oliver—a computer generated projection system—and my and Jeff Gross’ fantasy valuation formulas. Both Oliver and our valuation methods look at players through an objective, numbers-oriented lens, that is what makes them unique to the dozens of rankers out there using their own whims and gut calls to formulate rankings. Oliver isn’t prefect, but there is a reason why it is regarded as one of the best projection systems around, why THT had partnered with Brian Cartwright and his Oliver forecasts, and why people pay good money to access the updated Oliver forecasts throughout the year. They are pretty valuable. This ranking is based on Oliver’s rest of season rankings, which takes most of the bias and subjection out. This makes it unique. Not perfect, but unique. Hopefully if certain players are ranked in spots that you disagree with you will try to understand why before you criticize.

And if I feel that Oliver has something wrong, I will explain that in The analysis portion. Just make sure you read the whole article, not just the ranking section.

@Scott M:
Sorry about that, I guess Oliver doesn’t recognize Montero as a catcher for some reason.
His projection is: 23/7/27/0/.263, which ranks him 11th (rPAA) and 10th (EYES). Roughly 0.34 roto points below average for a 12-team league. Not bad, still above replacement level if you buy into that projection.

The “that just ruins your cred” comment was what I was referring to as criticism. But, yes, I agree with you on a few points, I didn’t agree with Oliver as much as I thought I would, and a few guys seemed off to me, too.

As far as that trade goes, I think you would be getting the better end of the deal in the short term, but if you can keep players perpetually, without penalty, then the deal probably swings the other way. Trout might be the best fantasy player for the next 10 years and with the state of Matt Kemp’s legs, we don’t know what his SB numbers will be like over the next couple of years. So Id take Trout over Kemp. Victorino and Tex are pretty much a wash, as are the two closers, although I’d rather have Chapman in case he starts and dominates. The only part of the deal that is a clear win for you is getting the “security” of Verlander over the riskier Strasburg. That difference isn’t enough to sell Trout, though, not of you can continually keep him. So, yeah, the deal looks pretty fair, but you don’t seem like you want to give up Trout, and if you do, you will probably be kicking yourself five years from now when Trout is in the midst of his sixth straight top-tier season. It is by no means a no brainier either way, so go with the side that you will regret less if it ends up going in the other guy’s favor. For me, that’d be keeping Trout.

First of all, I wasnt trying to criticize in any way, so if it came off as that, my apologies. Secondly, I did read the entire article and I do understand what Oliver does, but IMO that doesnt excuse the fact that these rankigs seem flawed in various ways…thats all i was saying. appreciate the response though

normally i would never do this, but i gotta ask…this is a monster deal in a 10-team keeper