New storm forecast is thinner, but still more perilous than usual

MIAMI—This year's hurricane season should produce fewer storms than experts earlier predicted, but government scientists warned Tuesday that the next few months still look dangerous.

The latest prediction from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for 12 to 15 tropical storms that grow into seven to nine hurricanes, including three or four with winds above 110 mph.

That's a little less threatening than the researchers' previous outlook, issued May 22, in which they predicted 13 to 16 tropical storms that become eight to 10 hurricanes, with four to six developing winds above 110 mph. But it's hardly an all's-clear alert. In fact, the new forecast still predicts a season of above-normal activity.

"While the beginning of the season has been relatively calm compared to last year, it does not mean that we are off the hook," NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher Jr. said during a briefing in Washington.

In May, government scientists said they expected two to four hurricanes to hit the United States. Now they say two or three could strike the U.S., and they urged coastal residents not to develop a false sense of security.

Though atmospheric and oceanic conditions have moderated somewhat to our benefit, they said, the tropical weather-production line soon will shift into high gear.

"It's certainly no reason to let our guard down," Max Mayfield, the director of the National Hurricane Center, said of the trimmed forecast. He joined the news conference from South Florida, where his center is. "We're not yet in the peak of the season."

That high point, in a manner of speaking, begins in about a week and runs through September. The full six-month season ends Nov. 30.

Eleven named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes have developed during an average season over the past 40 years.

Meanwhile, forecasters on the front lines monitored a system in the distant Atlantic Ocean.

Once considered a candidate to become Tropical Storm Debby, the system "is not doing too well," forecaster Jack Beven said, meaning it seems to be losing steam.

There's been a lot of that this season.

At this point last year, nine named storms already had formed, and four grew into hurricanes. So far this year, three named storms have formed, but none have evolved into a hurricane.

That won't last forever. And Mayfield reiterated findings from recent surveys that suggest a woeful level of public readiness, despite the vicious hurricane seasons of the last two years.

One showed that 13 percent of residents who live in evacuation areas would be disinclined to obey orders to flee ahead of an incoming hurricane. He said that could place tens of thousands of people in peril.

"I'm deeply concerned about this lack of public preparedness," Mayfield said. "We have literally become complacent in this country when it comes to hurricanes."

David Paulison, the director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, also preached the gospel of individual preparedness. He said his much-maligned operation was "light-years ahead of where we were last year" but still not where he wanted it to be.

Nevertheless, "FEMA is going to be ready to respond," he said.

Last week, private forecaster William Gray and his team at Colorado State University also trimmed their seasonal forecast. They called for 15 tropical storms that evolve into seven hurricanes, three with winds above 110 mph.

Their previous forecast: 17 named storms that evolve into nine hurricanes, five of them intense.

Both sets of scientists attributed their slightly reduced predictions to stronger than expected crosswinds, which can inhibit storm development, ocean temperatures slightly cooler than previously predicted and other technical issues.

"The combination of climate factors did not persist as we thought they might," said Gerry