A new classified intelligence assessment concludes it is more likely than previously thought that Russian forces will enter eastern Ukraine, CNN has learned.

Two administration officials described the assessment but declined to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the information.

The officials emphasized that nothing is certain, but there have been several worrying signs in the past three to four days.

“This has shifted our thinking that the likelihood of a further Russian incursion is more probable than it was previously thought to be,” one official said.

The buildup is seen to be reminiscent of Moscow’s military moves before it went into Chechnya and Georgia in both numbers of units and their capabilities.

U.S. military and intelligence officials have briefed Congress on the assessment.

As a result, Republican members of the House Armed Services Committee late Wednesday sent a classified letter to the White House expressing concern about unfolding developments.

An unclassified version obtained by CNN said committee members feel “urgency and alarm, based on new information in the committee’s possession.”

The committee said there was “deep apprehension that Moscow may invade eastern and southern Ukraine, pressing west to Transdniestria and also seek land grabs in the Baltics.”

Transdniestria is a separatist region of Moldova.

Committee members noted that Gen. Philip Breedlove, head of the U.S. European Command and NATO military chief, noted the Russians had sufficient forces to make moves into those areas.

American officials believe the more than 30,000 Russian forces on the border with Ukraine, combined with additional Russian forces placed on alert and mobilized to move, give Russian President Vladimir Putin the ability to rapidly move into Ukraine without the United States being able to predict it when it happens.

The assessment makes several new points including:

Troops on Russia’s border with eastern Ukraine – which exceed 30,000 - are “significantly more” than what is needed for the “exercises” Russia says it has been conducting, and there is no sign the forces are making any move to return to their home bases.

The troops on the border with Ukraine include large numbers of
“motorized” units that can quickly move. Additional special forces, airborne troops, air transport and other units that would be needed appear to be at a higher state of mobilization in other locations in Russia.

There is additional intelligence that even more Russian forces are “reinforcing” the border region, according to both officials. All of the troops are positioned for potential military action.

Russian troops already on the border region include air defense artillery and wheeled vehicles.

The United States believes that Russia might decide to go into eastern Ukraine to establish a land bridge into Crimea.

The belief is that Russian forces would move toward three Ukrainian cities: Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk in order to establish land access into Crimea. Russian forces are currently positioned in and around Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod, according to U.S. intelligence information.

Ain't gonna do it, Russia is already broke as it is the most corrupt nation on earth besides the US. If they go in most nations will pull out any and all financial interests there. Thats why Putin hasn't done it yet, he's testing the waters.

Russia is not a real Country it is a would-be ethnicity one ethnicity is not the Parent of any other ethnicity. Fact: Putin and Hitler think alike Putin is a Gehetto Hittler Assad is a Gehetto Hitler GETTO HITLERS WORK TOGETHER TO KILL KILL KILL & TAKE TAKE TAKE. The was no ligitimate vote about anything in Ukraine including Crimea since PUTIN the WORLDS single richest CRIMINAL DICTATOR and MASS MURDERING CERIAL KILLER. FACTS ARE FACTS AND THAT IS THAT UNTIL ITS NOT.

"If you have an ethnic Russians in you country you might want to ethnically cleanse them now before Vald the dismember of Ukraine. decides you are not being nice enough to them for his testates and invades your country.
After all if he can do it to Ukraine why not you?" WARNING HERE AND A THREAT

Russia has Snowden and he is %bs Russia with a lot of lies of info and this has embolden Putin to challenge Pres, Obama. Also, due to the praising of Putin and the negative remarks about our Pres. because of the HATE of him by Congress and the RACISM we generate toward OUR Pres. This has Putin feeling that we don"t respect our Pres., he won;t either. The ACTIONS of America is sending us into a WAR because Congress and ALL the HATER OF HIM (Pres. Obama), is putting us in HARMS way.

Don't you think that Obama's idiotic foreign policies have anything to do with it, Dianne? He's still having people in both Afghanistan and Pakistan butchered with those ungodly drones and Apache helicopters while endeavoring to keep some 15 to 20,000 troops in Afghanistan for the next ten years or so! Today, we're the most hated nation in the world!!!

Don't be concerned about what Snowden got wrong, be concerned about what he got right. The only reason for secrecy in government is to cover political mistakes! We should bring him home and give him a medal. The NSA. should be disbanded as illegally intrusive. They seem to monitor every communication in the world. To monitor the phone call of the Prime Minister of Germany while she is talking is a serious offense.

If you have an ethnic Russians in you country you might want to ethnically cleanse them now before Vald "the dismember of Ukraine." decides you are not being nice enough to them for his testates and invades your country.

Let's all hope that the Russians don't enter Ukraine. I'm so sick and tired of all this phony outrage being spewed out by Obama and his right-wing henchmen over this and the gutless wonders who currently lead Europe parroting it over and over again. Enough is enough!!!!!!!!

Thank you, Mark. How true that rings! CNN is no more than another member of the right-wing news media which only parrots the Washington view on things! They simply don't want the rest of us to wise up.

Fine, if Crimea belongs to Russia on the basis of the imperialist, expansionist efforts of Catherine and Peter, then perhaps Russia should give up its little outpost in Kalingrad, which is completely geographically separate from Russia and was Prussian, of German ethnicity and language, until the USSR overran it at the end of WWII. The selective memory of the Russian apologists on this board and everywhere is so obvious. Putin, please pay your toadies to at least not be so transparent.

And if we're going to renegotiate all the borders settled at the end of WWII, all of Europe is going to be a disaster for another fifty years. And Russia better start talking about the many republics within its own borders–Bashkortostan, Chuvashia, etcetera–that are not majority Russian ethnicity/language–not even close! Hypocrites...

April 1, 2014 at 12:08 pm |

Folke Bernadotte

Your comment is as childish as the one to which I responded earlier. Nobody is "renegotiating borders". Crimea is Russian. Crimea WANTS to remain Russian. End of discussion. The US doesn't have a say in the matter.

April 1, 2014 at 1:12 pm |

Jteuyr Ngfd

PROPAGANDA ALERT: 'I would say there is plenty anti Russian propaganda in west.'

PROPAGANDA ALERT: "And most of the world isnt concerned about this, China, India, Brazil and South Africa support Russia. As does most of the Middle East and even Karzai in Afghanistan. Let America and NATO get their underwear all out of shape over Crimea  nobody else gives a damn."

PROPAGANDA ALERT: "You people who dont live in Russia dont know the Crimea was given to Ukraine by mistake in desperate 90s
And in 1954 Crimea was transferred to Ukraine illegally as a gift as a symbol of Eternal ties between Ukraine and Russia."

"Crimea area belongs to Russia historically since Peter the First and Catherine the Great. And this area was unduly occupied by Ukraine since the USSR was over." RUSSIA IS NOT A REAL COUNTRY IT IS A MUD HOLE FILLED WITH COMMUNISTS THOUGH WHO PRETEND THEY ARE WHITE BUT THEY ARE NOT

UN, NATO and EU should realize that Russia has already invaded Ukraine. They have invaded Crimea which is a part of Ukraine, shattering the framework and backbone of every goverment in this planet. Not a single time in this era that we should allow this to happen. As this will become a deterrent threat that any country with military dominance over another could just annex(subtle word for invade) any country in just a snap. The leaders should resolve their "superpower" mindset. Superpowers are supposed to protect each other if they want long lasting peace, but it seems to me they don't, and therefore the eventuality of this could be another World War. The rest of the world do not deserve this.

Hyperbole much?? If USA can invade Iraq on a fantasy, so can Putin invade Ukraine on a fantasy. Just because Ukranians have white skin doesn't make the laws any more applicable to them.

And most of the world isn't concerned about this, China, India, Brazil and South Africa support Russia. As does most of the Middle East and even Karzai in Afghanistan. Let America and NATO get their underwear all out of shape over Crimea – nobody else gives a damn.

You people who don't live in Russia don't know the Crimea was given to Ukraine by mistake in desperate 90s
And in 1954 Crimea was transferred to Ukraine illegally as a "gift" as a symbol of "Eternal ties" between Ukraine and Russia.

NATO is just an 60 year old organization on its last legs, without America the rest are nothing. France, Germany etc are not going to save anybody except themselves.

And there are more ways to skin a cat than through military force. Putin isn't some Middle Eastern dictator with a one-trick pony. He'll just switch strategy and destroy them from the inside out if he has to. Send enough arms and weapons and Spetznaz soldiers in to create a civil war that will last for decades and leave NATO the job of cleaning up the mess.

Оn this video is shown, how Russia brings back ukraine tanks to Kiev that their military have left in the Crimea area when they were running out from there!!
Moreover if you try to learn some history you should know that the Crimea area belongs to Russia historically since Peter the First and Catherine the Great. And this area was unduly occupied by Ukraine since the USSR was over.

So, then the Neanderthal man would be disagree with you and Tatars ...

:)))

March 29, 2014 at 3:39 am |

Mazo

Russians TOOK crimea from the Tartars and their Turk masters. If they want it back they will have to come and take it and this time the Tartars won't be deported to Siberia, they will be "deported to hell" eating Kalashnikov rounds upside the head.

Are you talking about Premier Obama and the imperial NATO war-machine ??

Did you American chimps really except Russia to lay down and die while you expanded NATO into former Soviet bloc nations and build missile defense around Russia ?? You sowed the wind, now you reap the whirlwind.

Putin only exposes America's impotence for the world to see. Beating up Arab and Taliban rabble is easy, but you thought you were suddenly some tough guys for harassing weaker nations and leaders with your military. Putin is not weak and neither is Russia.

"He may be entirely misreading the West," Obama said. "He's certainly misreading American foreign policy. We have no interest in encircling Russia, and we have no interest in Ukraine – the Ukrainian beyond letting people make their own decisions about their own lives."

"A-ha, for sure, but we accidentally encircled Russia, we did not want to, that happened accidentally, we accidentally playong in someone else's backyard!" USA knows what Russia bothers, but intentionally doing it, and let it deal with the consequences because of that

And the Machiavellian leaders of nations, movements and religions are still, somehow permitted by the malleable masses to issue ultimate threats of wars even when each new battle has taken an increasing toll. Many millions of our world citizens have already bravely sacrificed their health and lives for and because of the causes and conflicts created and continued by the leaders. Yet still, leaders are somehow permitted to coerce or order our finest youths to defend more of their chosen causes and to attack more of their chosen foes.

Well, understanding Communism is a relatively new phenomenon, in historical terms, I believe ISLAM would be the biggest killer in histiory!

March 29, 2014 at 4:58 am |

Hmhj Fhjk

ONE UN-ELECTED COMMUNIST PLANTS ANOTHER UN-ELECTED COMMUNIST IN A COUNTRY WHERE THE PEOPLE THREW OUT THE PLANTED COMMUNIST THEN THE COMMUNIST DICTATOR INVADES THE FREE COUNTRY AND PLANTS LAND MINES THEN TELLS THE WHOLE WORLD THAT NO ONE IS ALLOWED TO THINK FOR THEMSELFS ANYPLACE EVER AGAIN AND TO BOOT IT IS GOING TO COST EVERYBODY EXCEPT THE COMMUNIST DICTATOR A LOT OF MONEY BECAUSE ALL MONEY WORK AND WEALTH BELONGS TO THE AGING COMMUNIST DICTATOR

"Allegations of U.S. President can cause nothing but amazement, considering that in Kosovo there WAS NOT a referendum, especially not one agreed with the international community," the Russian Foreign Ministry.

"In any case, we can only state that fateful decision should be made on the referendum, as was done in the Crimea, and and not on their own hand," says the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Conclusion: The End of the story, Obama dont knows what he's talking about!

Well... almost a month and USA is still keeping the flame glowing by saying that " RUSSIA LIKELY TO INVADE" a hundred and a thousand times ...EU has grown more morose than ever!EU anyway do not have any single handed position.It is a pyramid build on broken ideologies that does not match one another.
Let us look at more closely..the more US propagandize against Russia and motivates literally, the more they think they are getting close to sending their soldiers for another war...Because they live on wars.. they gain money by killing others, killing and wounding their own young soldiers.May be that is also part of the great 'AMERICAN DREAM'.The balance sheet of diplomacy is not tallying... ever since snowden was given refuge,magnitsky case was elevated( a case where the main person who is dead was judged and verdicted internationally). But one thing with all sanctions and no gas sales to EU, Russia would still survive..because the people over generations are equipped and designed to handle crisis..Not like Americans who borrow and make bubbles and put up a board of XX trillions of dollars of debt out on the street for the middle class Americans to see...Who firmly believe that school children can carry guns and shoot at other little Kids..Is this the definition of democracy that they are trying to teach others??I am not in love with Russians but, when so much of information war is happening from US,..pls look a second time at their history, look at the wars that they have handled, before making foolish comments..

Putin is no angel of course.
But Obama (or maybe McCain) is like a bully – keeps pressing untill you strike back, so we did....
Poor ukrainians don't even know they're pawns.
American State Dep really believe that they are GODS and Their opinion is the only right.
Everuthing is needed to live in peace is America to stay home.

"If Obama (2 years left in the office) wouldnt do his best to be a Great President by pulling out Russian the evil country card, nothing would happen." THIS LOOKS TO BE WRITEN BY A CHILD OR AN ADULT WHO HAS NOT BEEN ALLOWED FREEDOM OF SPEACH

"Stop. Behaving like ***** we all know how the US venal habit is so well developed and established Its now time you try those stupid tricks of yours on New Russia Cowards!!!!" PERFECT EXAMPLE OF PEOPLE TALKING TO THEMSELFS

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