AFTEREFFECTS: POSTWAR POLITICS

AFTEREFFECTS: POSTWAR POLITICS; Iraqis More Bemused Than Enthused by Cleric

By SUSAN SACHS

Published: May 12, 2003

NAJAF, Iraq, May 11—
The ayatollah who could become an Iraqi kingmaker journeyed toward this Shiite Muslim holy city today in a slow-moving convoy that was greeted by Iraqis with more curiosity than exhilaration.

Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr al-Hakim, a longtime opponent of Saddam Hussein who spent the last 32 years in exile in Iran, was expected to enter Najaf on Monday and assert his claim to speak for Iraq's long-suppressed Shiites in negotiations for a postwar government.

After arriving in the port city of Basra on Saturday, he set out this morning on a journey northward that took him through the bleak flatlands of southern Iraq, past towns and villages where Shiites rose up against the government in 1991 with the help of his Iran-based militia, the Badr Brigade.

That uprising was crushed with brutal force. Only today, just outside Basra, a grave was uncovered that may contain the remains of eight brothers from one family who had died in the crackdown.

The Badr Brigade, made up of Iraqis trained and financed by Iran, may become a smaller personal guard for Ayatollah Hakim, under the agreement with Washington that allowed him to return to Iraq.

His militia had been used, in part, to fight the Mujahedeen Khalq, an anti-Iran group that had been supported by the government of Saddam Hussein. Last week, American forces in Iraq ordered the Iranian opposition group to give up its weapons.

In Nasiriya, another outpost of the revolt, Ayatollah Hakim wept as he spoke to a few hundred men from the balcony of City Hall, recalling the torture and killings the Shiites had suffered under Mr. Hussein.

''Nowhere have I been that I didn't pray for you,'' he told the group. ''I am not above saying that I kiss your hands. You are the mujahedeen.''

The town was plastered with photographs of the ayatollah, and two busloads of people from Basra, outfitted with banners and posters, accompanied him on his travels. Signposts and walls along the road all the way to Najaf had also been covered with his posters, and clusters of Bedouins and other Iraqis waited under a searing sun to see him pass.

''He's a moderate man, not an extremist,'' said Ahmed al-Shikarchi, a schoolteacher whose school had been destroyed in the postwar looting in Nasiriya. ''I think he may be the most popular person. Or at least the most revolutionary.''

But Ayatollah Hakim's cavalcade, with all the markings of a political campaign, also appeared to be just a temporary diversion for others.

The bulk of the audience hurried away after his speech, leaving behind just the people who had been brought in from Basra by the ayatollah's aides.

A block away, a few tired-looking men in the Arbanayim tea shop skipped the speech, instead spending the morning sipping tiny glasses of sugary tea under a ceiling fan that slowly wafted the hot air over the benches and tables.

''I don't really understand what's going on,'' said Kassem Hassan, an unemployed construction worker, when asked his opinion on the new politicking in postwar Iraq.

A few of the opposition parties that used to operate outside Iraq have opened small offices in Nasiriya. But residents said they had drawn little attention except as novelties.

Many people are especially suspicious of the former exiles who spent years outside the country and have now returned to help organize a transitional government.

''Let me tell you, I am a poor person, and these are wealthy people,'' Mr. Hassan said. ''Saddam divided us between the rich and the poor. If someone comes along to unite us, I'm for him. But if there's a party and only people in this party get jobs, then I won't accept this again.''

Most people have modest expectations that have little to do with politics or religion.

''Let us have enough food to eat each day, a clean shirt, and we'll be fine,'' said another patron, Akil Khalil, a 40-year-old bus driver who lives in one small room with his wife, five children and parents.

A few doors down, at another tea shop, the customers were mesmerized by a movie video playing on the television set and expressed no interest in Ayatollah Hakim's appearance a few steps away.

One patron was a distinguished-looking tribal sheik in a white robe, gauzy black cape and black and white headdress. He identified himself as Sheik al-Khafaja, using just the name of his tribe, and said he saw little difference between the various people making political promises these days.

''The politicians come and go here, and each time there are these celebrations here and there,'' he added. ''The main thing we want to know, though, is when our economic situation is going to get better.''

Ayatollah Hakim, while one of the best-known clerics, is only one of many religious figures jockeying to represent the interests of the majority Shiite population. Several began sniping at the newcomer before he arrived.

''One who spent the majority of his life comfortably outside the country and did not suffer as the majority of Iraqis suffered -- we can't call him a representative of Iraqis on the street,'' said Sheik Adnan al-Shahmani, a spokesman for another ambitious cleric, Moktada al-Sadr.

Ayatollah Hakim, added the sheik, ''is only a brigade commander who opposed the regime.''

Photo: Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr al-Hakim, who spent the last 32 years in exile in Iran, spoke to a crowd in Nasiriya yesterday. (Alan Chin for The New York Times)