The Wahoo Blues

Thursday, August 6, 2009

As I sit here on this gorgeous Thursday watching the Indians '09 Futility Tour I encountered upon an ESPN article citing team owner Larry Dolan.

In the article Dolan backs the team decision to trade stars Vic Martinez and Cliff Lee, explaining that the team is more than 500,000 attendees short of their projections and expects to lose $16 million this season.

This isn't news, we all knew the Indians have problems. The news is that Dolan spoke. Of course, it wouldn't be so important if it weren't for the last segment of the article.

Dolan also said ownership will have input into whether manager Eric Wedge returns next season.

That seemingly innocuous sentence that served as an epilogue to an overall sobering article says a lot about the future of the Indians.

All season long rumors have been flying about the tenuousness of manager Eric Wedge's job, and all season long GM Mark Shapiro has stood by his man despite the obvious fan outrage. By addressing this issue to the media, no matter how small, I believe that the Dolan's are tipping their hand toward a regime change in Cleveland.

The bulk of the article was about the lack of attendance and clear resent from the Tribe faithful. I believe that the ownership recognizes that the resent is not just directed at these trades that were made to balance the books, but at the management, who may be the reason they need to balance the books.

Indians fans saw their team go from projected AL Central winners to basement dwellers yet again. The ire was placed upon Wedge, as it often is (warranted or not), yet the team stood pat.

This brief statement from the Dolan's gives me the sense that they sympathize with the fans, and are aware of their concerns.

With this I believe that it will be very difficult for Wedge, and possibly his BFF Shapiro to retain their jobs beyond this season.

The Dolan's, much like us fans, are tired of the ride-it-out mentality that has only resulted in a few above average second halves in recent history. The recognize the need for change, and in saying this, acknowledge that they will be making such a change.

On the new and improved list only four of those original ten players are still listed. Of course you have to consider that Adam Miller has since gone through career threatening finger surgery, Dave Huff has ascended to the Major League level, which affects their status on the list, but the changes are pretty dramatic regardless.

This is what the Indians' top ten looks like now:

1. Carlos Santana, cStolen from the Dodgers last summer in the Casey Blake trade.2. Matt LaPorta, ofScouts are cooling a little on the centerpiece of the C.C. Sabathia trade.3. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3bSurprise 2008 first-rounder is hitting just like the Indians hoped.4. Jason Knapp, rhpOne of the hardest throwers in the lower minors is out with shoulder fatigue5. Nick Hagadone, lhpHas regained power stuff after Tommy John surgery, might be a reliever.6. Alex White, rhpTremendous value pick at 15th overall in the 2009 draft, though still unsigned.7. Nick Weglarz, ofLefthanded version of LaPorta with a chance to surpass him down the road.8. Hector Rondon, rhpHe and Weglarz are the only guys on this list who were Indians before June 2008.9. T.J. House, lhpSigned for $750,000 as a 16th-round pick in 2008.10. Carlos Carrasco, rhpWhat he has in stuff he has lacked in poise and results in the upper minors.

A couple surprising notes are that Chisenhall, Rondon and House ascended the list in spite of the new acquisitions. I believe that this really speaks to the Indians ability to develop their own talent, which has been questioned widely as of late.

These names are also significant because I believe that they may be names that we become more familiar with in the near future. Carrasco and LaPorta could (maybe should) be with the team by September at the latest and appear to be fixtures next year. Weglarz, Santana and Rondon will not be far behind them, possibly impacting the team next year or by 2011 at the latest.

Though things look bleak right now having traded two consecutive Cy Young winners and a true team leader, but the pieces for the future are in place and the team may be poised for an extended run at greatness just a few years from now.

Any disgruntled fans who still aren't convinced (and are ESPN Insiders) should read this article by Buster Olney on the widening gap between the rich clubs and poor clubs. This article will give some insight as to what the Indians are dealing with and why they have had to make these moves.

Above all else we need to stay fans and we need to keep supporting the team. Just take a look at those names, and plan on getting one of their jerseys in the near future.

Friday, July 31, 2009

Those are the words of the now former Indian catcher Victor Martinez. As most of you are aware he was dealt to the Boston Red Sox today as a part of a four team deal.

As vapid MLB news consumer I am not shocked by this deal in the least, but as an Indian fan I still feel a bit taken aback by the last few days.

Since the Mark DeRosa trade way back on June 28th, the Indians have made five deals stripping the team of their opening day starting pitcher, left fielder, first baseman and third baseman, not to mention their back-up first baseman and set-up man.

Of course the team got quite a haul in return. Besides saving payroll for the 2009 season the Indians have now shed $17 million from their 2010 payroll (only Lee and Martinez were guaranteed money next year).

Since it's been a whirlwind the past few weeks we'll recap everything that the Indians have brought in prior to today's deadline.Position Players

Lou Marson, C (from Philadelphia via Cliff Lee trade)

The 23 year old catcher was rated as the third best prospect from within the Phillies system by Baseball America and was evaluated by General Manager Mark Shapiro as "at least an average everyday catcher."

At bat he is known for his ability to work the count and it has shown in his OBP (.382). He has hit well for average, hitting a solid .294 for Lehigh Valley, and has carried that average through high A and AA. Behind the plate Marson is highly regarded for his game-calling and receiving and many scouts describe him as a natural leader.

Where he fits within the organization is somewhat ambiguous, however. At the moment Wyatt Toregas has been called up from AAA and Marson has taken his place in Columbus. With Kelly Shoppach and Chris Giminez (to a lesser extent) also able to play behind the plate and the future of the team Carlos Santana killing time in Akron, Marson's place seems tenuous.

His acquisition could signal an end of Shoppach's Tribe tenure during the August waiver period, either that or Marson could become trade bait in the off-season given the Indians will have some payroll flexibility.

Jason Donald, SS (from Philadelphia via Cliff Lee trade)

Like Marson, Donald joining the Tribe comes with a bit of confusion. Directly ahead of him in the middle infield are the likes of Asdrubal Cabrera, Luis Valbuena and to a much (much) lesser degree Josh Barfield.

Currently Donald is playing in Columbus, but the idea is to have him compete with Valbuena in the spring for the 2B position or perhaps fill the "Jamey Carroll" role and compliment Luis as the right handed bat to his left. Another possibility is that Donald could be moved in the off-season to a team in more desperate need than the Indians.

Donald started the year slowly after recovering from off-season knee surgery. At Lehigh Valley he was batting a paltry .236, but he did have a good offensive season at AA in 2008. He was the Phillies fourth best prospect according to Baseball America, but scouts see him filling a utility role rather than a starting role in the big leagues.

Starting Pitchers:

Justin Masterson, RHP (from Boston via Victor Martinez trade)

Mark Shapiro has changed his mind a bit about the teams 2010 chances since acquiring Masterson on Friday. The 6'6", 250 lb. Jamaican born right-hander is expected to join the big club immediately, starting in the bullpen and slowly getting stretched out to a starting role; by the end of the season Masterson should be pitching in the rotation.

With the Red Sox this season he has gone 3-3 through 31 games, six as a starter. Masterson has notched 68 strikeouts and only 25 walks this season but has had a slightly inflated ERA at 4.50.

His big body makes for an ideal pitchers build and he throws the ball from a three-quarters motion that makes him appear to sling the ball to home plate. His best pitch is his sinker which he varies between 84 and 94 mph along with a heavy, late sink. His slider is also a plus pitch which sits in the low 80's. Added to that arsenal is a circle change that he keeps between 77 and 81. Primarily Masterson will use the sinker as his out pitch, but he compliments it well with his secondary pitches. Along with Carlos Carrasco he gives the Indians rotation a chance of being decent despite losing Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee.Carlos Carrasco, RHP (from Philadelphia via Cliff Lee trade)

Though Carrasco is currently in AAA his impact could be felt to the North before September call-ups. The young (22) righty has already spent six years in professional baseball, but '09 (his first full season at AAA) has been one of his poorest to date.

At Lehigh Valley he has gone 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA through 20 starts. Despite those poor baseline statistics Carrasco has managed to stike out 112 batters through 114.2 innings and only walked 38. His fastball has been clocked as high as 94-95 but it is his change-up that is his bread and butter. Sitting in the low 80's Carrasco is unafraid to use the change-up and against anyone and according to one scout "it can be a big league out pitch at it's best."

The Phillies front office still valued Carrasco and took most of the blame for his start, claiming that they imposed some changes upon him to make him a better major league player.

His raw stuff are inspiring and the scouting report on him project his stuff at major league average or above. The Indians believe that he can slot in to the middle of the rotation and make an impact as early as 2010.Jason Knapp, RHP (from Philadelphia via Cliff Lee trade)

His raw stuff alone make this 18-year-old the centerpiece of the Lee trade. Standing in at 6'5" Knapp has the size to intimidate the opposition and the arm to back up that size.

Knapp works with three pitches and reaches the mid-90's consistently with his fastball, however, beyond the fastball his stuff is marked with inconsistency. Of course, that is to be expected from a player who has yet to reach his 19th birthday.

Mechanically Knapp has already cleaned up a few of the issues that have plagued his young career, which could have led to his poor start to the 2009. Pitching for Class A Lakewood this season he went 2-7 with a 4.01 ERA but he has averaged 11.7 K/9 and kept his WHIP at 1.195.

Knapp hasn't thrown since July 11 because of shoulder issues but he should be back to throwing for Lake County sometime in August. Though his future remains unsettled he is currently projected as a high end rotation starter. He was listed as the 10th best prospect in the Phillies organization prior to the trade.

Scott Barnes, LHP (from San Francisco via Ryan Garko trade)

Barnes, the ninth best prospect in the Giants organization by Baseball America, is often compared to another Giant arm: Madison Bumgarner. The lanky left-hander skipped low A this season and accelerated to high A and has flourished since.

At San Jose Barnes has gone 12-3 over 18 starts with a 2.85 ERA, good enough for tops in the California League in wins and second in ERA. His 99 strikeouts tied him for ninth in the league and kept his average per nine innings slightly above 9.0.

Jason Grey of ESPN describes his motion as "whippy" and "slingerlike" making the ball tough to pick up out of his hand. His delivery has been cleaned up while in the minors and he has shown consistency and the ability to repeat his delivery with nothing that would cause alarm. Grey predicts him to spend more time in the minors, obviously, but projects him as "a solid starter down the road."

Connor Graham, RHP (from Colorado via Rafael Betancourt trade)

The lone return from the Raffy Right deal jumped from A ball with the Rocks directly to AA Akron for the Tribe. Graham, an Ohio native, is another big bodied pitcher standing in at 6'6" and 235 lbs.

He is a hard thrower with the numbers to prove it (9.7 K/9 at Modesto) but he also struggled with his command allowing nearly five walks per nine innings. Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer thinks that he Graham has a future in the bullpen, though he has spent his career as a starter, and likens him to former Indians power relievers Jose Mesa and Steve Karsay of yesteryear.

Currently the Indians have no plans to move Graham to the 'pen, and his win-loss (7-4) and low HR allowed numbers (two over 80 innings) while in Modesto seem to back up their assertion.

Nick Hagadone, LHP (from Boston via Victor Martinez trade)

With a fastball that tops out at 98, a plus slider and an improving change-up there is considerable upside to this lefty acquired for the former Indian captain. Rated as the number three prospect in the Sox system (ahead of Daniel Bard) his control is listed as one of his strongest assets.

In 10 starts at Class A Greenville Hagadone has gone 0-2 but allowed seven earned runs in 25 innings which calculates to a 2.52 ERA. He is averaging 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings and kept his WHIP at 1.08. However his walk numbers have been high, despite scouting that touts his control, and has averaged almost five bases on balls per nine.

Hagadone is coming off Tommy John surgery and only made his season debut June 6th. He will be reporting to Lake County. The Indians will have a decision to make in the near future as to where this young lefty will end up, in the rotation or the bullpen. His scouting report describes his motion as fluid but compact, which might indicate a future in relief work for the Indians.

Bryan Price, RHP (from Boston via Victor Martinez trade)

Since Price changed his arm action and developed higher velocity while at Rice University he has been on the Indians radar. Shapiro mentioned that he was on the Indians mind during the 2008 draft when he was selected 45th overall in the sandwich round.

Price's fastball has a good deal of velocity on it, clocking in between 92 and 95 mph. He profiles as a pitcher with a smooth three-quarters deliver but with some unnecessary movement. He also throws a two-seam fastball that has nice inward movement toward right handed hitters. His slider is described as a "plus" pitch which he relies on as an out pitch, and his change-up is still a work in progress.

Price is another one of the young pitchers that could be used in relief or as a starter. With High A Salem this season Price has gone 1-6 with a 6.54 ERA over 11 starts. He fared better at Class A Greenville, going 3-2 with 2.45 ERA. His command has been questioned under duress, but his scouting report details him as a generally good control and command pitcher.

Relief Pitchers

Chris Perez, RHP (from St. Louis via Mark DeRosa trade)

Obviously we've had some time to see this kid and so far his numbers haven't been great. However, if you take away his horrific first appearance he has only allowed two earned runs over 8.2 innings, which is good enough for a 2.19 ERA, which is much better than his current 4.64 overall ERA.

In his second year in the big leagues Perez is showing the talent to be a solid bullpen arm, which can be a rare commodity, and certainly worthy of a player like DeRosa with an expiring contract.

Perez's arsenal is best described as filthy, and Future Redbirds described his stuff as the "best pure stuff of any pitcher in the [Cardinals] system." That kind of praise does not lightly, and will certainly serve him well in Cleveland.

I see Perez as the heir apparent to Kerry Wood, thus usurping the role from Jensen Lewis, who has shown too much inconsistency in his young career.Jess Todd, RHP (from St. Louis via Mark DeRosa trade)

I was very pleased with the Indians selection of Todd as the PTBNL in the Mark DeRosa trade, and I feel that it really swung the balance of the trade to the Indians favor.

Todd spent the first half of this year closing for AAA Memphis and has since taken over that role in Columbus. With Memphis he earned 24 saves in 41 appearances over 49 innings. During that time he struck out 59 and only walked 13 all while keeping his WHIP and ERA low at 1.061 and 2.20, respectively.

Since moving to Columbus he has earned one save in two appearance and is yet to allow a run. In those two innings of work he has struck out three and walked none.

Todd uses a 90-94 mph four seam fastball along with a two-seamer and a circle change that moves like a splitter. Though he is a bit smaller, only 5'11", he throws hard and has a strong delivery, albeit one that requires a good deal of effort on his part. Because of this Todd profiles best as a reliever and in my opinion the best man to set up for battery mate Chris Perez in the near future. It won't be long before Todd moves north, I would have to guess he would be a September call up at the latest.

What it all means

The Indians have netted a strong core of young, promising prospects for two proven stars, two decent utility men and two young players without a future in Cleveland. Overall I would say that these deals have the potential to be very lucrative for the Indians, similar to the now famous Bartolo Colon deal (which, of course, brough Grady, Cliff and Brandon Phillips to Cleveland).

But they are called prospects for a reason, and clearly 2009, and for all intents and purposes 2010, will be used solely as rebuilding years. As I mentioned previously, with Masterson and Carrasco ready to move in to the rotation shortly Mark Shapiro has some optimism for next year though it would be a long shot.

"I think in a division that's not perfect, with no real powerhouse team, it will take all things firing right, but I think [contention] next year is not out of the question," Shapiro said. "I think what's more important is that we have a multi-year opportunity to have a good team."

I have reason to believe that the Indians are not done dealing, and that August may still be a busy month. With a bad economy players are more likely to clear waivers and players like Carl Pavano and Jamey Carroll, both of whom have high value to contenders, could easily be moved with their budget friendly contracts. Even Kelly Shoppach may be made available next month since he will be arbitration eligible after this season.

Beyond that I believe that the team may be able to make a play in free agency this off-season. Thought I doubt the team will make any huge moves, the $16 million in salary that was freed up by the V-Mart and Cliff Lee deals may be able to go to good use, especially when you consider that Shapiro was never asked to offload salary.

As usual I implore you Tribe fans to stay positive and look to the future. But even as I was writing this the Victorless, Cliffless, (dare I say) hopeless Indians pulled off a 13 inning win against the Central leading Tigers.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Perhaps a snap judgment, but that is what blogs are meant for. Right now it looks as though the team's chances for 2010 have been shot as well. This deal also begs the question: who is the Indians current ace? That answer, undoubtedly will require the answerer to redefine the meaning of "ace" to fit their agenda.

Right off the bat, I don't love this deal for the Indians. Two of the main pieces acquired are a AAA catcher and shortstop. Correct me if I'm wrong but the depth charts look pretty good for those positions.

Maybe this means that Victor Martinez is going to be dealt as well, but I would really not be happy if such a deal were to take place. Behind Vic the team has Wyatt Toregas, Carlos Santana and to a lesser extent Chris Giminez. All of a sudden it feels like we're the Pirates, dealing because we can't hang on to anyone long enough to win a damn game.

The other two acquisitions in this deal are two prized pitching prospects, which was to be expected. However, neither has had statistically great years so far. Of course, stats only can tell you so much about a player, but I don't like this: Carlos Carrasco, 69-, 5.18 ERA in 20 starts at AAA.

The other pitching prospect, 19 year old Jason Knapp has hardly any pro experience under his belt, but has gone 2-7 with a 4.9=01 ERA in 17 starts. His strikeout numbers are impressive, with 111 with only 39 walks in 85+ innings, but I still have my doubts.

I'll break this down some more in the near future. Hopefully I won't have any more prospects, via Victor trade, to discuss in that post.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

As most fans know by now Ryan Garko was shipped to the Giants yesterday in return for left handed minor league pitcher Scott Barnes.

Right now I like this deal for the Indians. Garko, who admittedly had been heating up recently, never really seemed to cement his place in the starting nine with his defense or his offense. His numbers were generally only noteworthy against left-handed pitching, thus making him only valuable at certain times, and certainly more valuable to a National League team.

Barnes has the pedigree of a future major league ballplayer. Coming in to this season he was ranked as the Giants ninth-best prospect despite only playing one year in Class A.

A product of St. John's University, Barnes was an eighth round pick in the 2008 draft and spent parts of last season in the minors with San Fransisco's Rookie, Low A and A affiliates.

This year at High A San Jose he has compiled a California League leading 12 wins, and his ERA, 2.85, is good enough for second. His WHIP has remained relatively low, at 1.13 and he is average 9.09 K/9 and only 2. 66 BB/9.

At 6-foot-4 and 185 pounds he has intimidating size on the mound. However it isn't his velocity that will help him excel through the minors, rather his command.

On the San Jose Giants Web site there is an article detailing Barnes stuff in which San Fransisco Giants VP of Baseball Operation Bobby Evans dotes upon the young lefty.

He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s a strike-thrower. You need to be able to command your stuff and Scott has done that. It’s impressive," said Evans.

Baseball America reports his fastball as a mid-eighties pitch which he "changes speeds like a major league veteran." Anytime those words are used to describe a prospect it is certainly exciting, but the same article also mentions that his change-up may be his best pitch.

Obviously Barnes is a couple years away from making an impact in the big league rotation, but this trade will have an immediate impact on the big club with Garko gone.

MLB.com beat writer Anthony Castrovince noted on his blog that Andy Marte will be taking the bus from Columbus to Cleveland and begin seeing time at first base.

This move will please many fans who noted that upon returning to AAA this season he has hit .327 with 18 home runs and only 50 strike outs in 300 plate appearances. The team has been hesitant to recall Marte after his poor performances in Cleveland over the past two seasons, including the entire 2008 season which he spent on the bench.

The move will be risky, because should Marte struggle at the big league level again the team will have to expose him to waivers in order to demote him and bring up another player (say, Matt LaPorta). However, the Indians may be priming him for an August waiver deal, as his value is arguably the highest it's ever been while he has been with the club.

Regardless of how Marte does, this deal does eventually free a 25-man roster spot for prized prospect Matt LaPorta. With Garko out of the way, LaPorta will be able to share time with Victor Martinez at first.

Of course, in this perfect lineup Grady is not our lead-off hitter and Michael Brantley is starting. This may or may not happen, a lot of what happens depends on who is managing by this time next year. Regardless, I would have to say that these past couple deals made by the team have made a lot of sense and have made the future look better for the Indians.

Monday, July 27, 2009

...of the Mark DeRosa trade. In no way is Jess Todd going to solve everything, that's far too incredulous a statement.

However, since he is the last piece coming from St. Louis let's break down his numbers.

I want to start by expressing the relief I am feeling that the Indians did not take the other pitcher that was speculated to be on their short-list, Francisco Samuel. Everything I read about Samuel highlighted his inconsistency and questioned his future. Then I saw, first-hand, Samuel blow up at the All Star Futures Game in St. Louis and prayed the Indians would get Todd.

Good pickin' Shappy.

Todd came out of the University of Arkansas as the best Razorback starter featuring four pitches that can reach the mid-90's. The righty's main pitch is a four seam fastball but he partners that with a hard mid-80's slider that he uses as an out pitch. He also throws a two-seamer and a circle change that have been rated as fringe average or below.

The big plus to this acquisition is that Todd's two best pitches were evaluated as two of the best pitches in the entire 2007 draft for the Cardinals (thanks to Future Redbirds for the info).

Todd stands in at 5 foot 11 inches, and doesn't really have the body to intimidate the players that he is throwing to with his size. However, he doesn't have many, if any, mechanical flaws that are often present in players who attempt to overthrow.

Todd is able to keep his velocity up using a "tall-and-fall" pitching method in which he leads with his hips and follows through his tilted shoulders. His motion looks as if he is stepping over an invisible step on the mound, which allows him to more aggressively rotate his hips to maximize his velocity (thanks to Pitchers Hit Eighth for the info).

The Cardinals made the decision to place Todd in the bullpen prior to starting the season, and by all accounts it seems to have gone well to this point. Pitchers hit Eighth believes that his mechanics and stuff are best suited for a late-inning role and Future Redbirds also like the young righty as a set-up man in the future.

In 41 games at AAA Memphis (zero started) Todd has gone 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 24 saves. What I like the most about his numbers, and what so many beleaguered Tribe fans have to agree with, is that over those 49 innings Todd has only given up 3 home runs, and just 12 earned runs total. His WHIP has remained low at 1.06, and his K/9 has been an astonishing 10.8.

The walks have not been a huge issue this season for Todd, only allowing 2.4 per nine, and have never been a huge issue, even as a starter.

I would expect to see Todd begin at Columbus, but I wouldn't expect the team to keep him there for a very long time. Hopefully this half of the DeRosa deal will begin paying dividends in Cleveland in a very short period of time.

Friday, July 24, 2009

The Indians made an important move yesterday in trading Rafael Betancourt to the Rockies for Class A pitcher Connor Graham.

This is a move that will surprise no one, considering the team was unlikely to exercise their $5.4 million option on Raffy Right next year. However, this move signifies that the team is willing to look beyond 2010.

I think that most fans can agree that this is a good thing. With the current state of the pitching rotation and the fact that some of our best prospects are two years away, competing in 2010 is not as important as 2011.

Currently the Indians have 4 players listed in Baseball America's top 50 prospects, with Carlos Santana listed as number seven and Matt LaPorta coming in at number 22 (Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Weglarz were simply listed by alphabetical order in the 25-50 half of the list).

Of those four I would only expect to see Weglarz and LaPorta in the big leagues prior to next September (at least for serious consideration). Unfortunately, none of those prospects listed can provide pitching help.

That's where Graham comes in.

In two and a half seasons in the minors Graham, from Miami of Ohio, has pitched in 48 games and started all but two of those. His numbers have been impressive in Class A ball with an overall 20-10 record and an ERA of 2.55. This year for the Rockies Advanced A team in Modesto he has gone 7-4 over 80 innings notching 87 strikeouts to only 41 bases on balls. Though his WHIP is a bit high at 1.35, his K/9 makes up for it at 9.7 and his HR/9 has been microscopic at 0.2.

Baseball America describes Graham as a hard-thrower that sits in the mid-90's and can touch 96 at times. In the past Graham has had issues with location, in part because of a hard slider that he has difficultly controlling and a fastball with "plus natural life," according to BA. As he stands currently, he is projected as a solid bullpen option for the Indians. However, should he be able to reign in his two current pitches and pair them with a curve or changeup he would be a valuable addition to the big league rotation.

Looking forward this deal could work out well for the Indians, who certainly got their money's worth out of Betancourt, a converted infielder.

Time will tell who else among this current batch of Tribe players becomes a big league troubadour, until then stay positive Tribe fans.