Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Second and Final Call

FINAL CALL 2/12 @ 3PM: This is my final call for tonight and tomorrow's storm. Here I am showing you the snowfall, but this won't be the major issue with this storm. By 6AM tomorrow morning, everyone south of Manchester, NH will have mixed with and changed to heavy rain. We will see heavy rainfall on top of the snowfall accumulations to the right. For the snowfall, we will see it push into southern SNE around 6PM. Then it will push towards the Boston metro area around 9PM, before making it into CNE and NNE. Generally, in CT and RI, and southeastern MA, we will see a quick 1-3" of snow before we change this over around midnight tonight from south to north. Where it stays snow longer, north of the Pike, we will see a quick hiting 2-5" of snowfall, before a changeover around 2-4AM. Further north, we will see longer snowfall, with the changeover line making it to North Conway! by noontime. Here is where I think 4-7" of snowfall will fall before a lot of IP and then plain rain. Where it stays all now, we will have a good 6-10" of snowfall in the the Burlington, VT area.

The snow will come in like a wall later tonight and visibilities will fall to between 1/4 to 1/2 mile. Snowfall rates will be on the order of 1"/hr. So you get 6 hours of snow, expect snowfall to be around 5-6". Its a tough call, but by tomorrow morning, the rain will be falling hard in western New England and then pushing east. Where there is snow covering storm drains, there will certainly be street and poor drainage flooding in all of SNE. Rainfall on the order of 1-3" will be likely after the snowfall. It will be a horrible day tomorrow, a day where schools will have a tough decision whether or not to close. I would say that if snowfall adds up over 4" tonight in any given town and the changeover occurs after 3-4AM, schools will have to close because before the change to rain there will be a brief period of glaze and sleet on top of the snow. It will be a very slow morning. Best bet is a delay, but even that will be tough. Best bet is that north of the Pike should see many closings and south of the Pike will see 1-2 hour delays. That is what I would do, but I am no superintendent.