Hurricane JOSE (Text)

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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017
Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery indicates some improvement of
the inner core during the past several hours. The earlier
identified banding eye feature in microwave imagery appears to be
closing off in the west side. Based on the overall improvement of
the cloud pattern and a consensus of the satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 80
kt. Further strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours.
After that time, increasing northerly shear associated with the
outflow of Hurricane Irma should inhibit further intensification
and subsequently, cause the cyclone to begin weakening. The
intensity forecast is based primarily on the IVCN consensus model
and is close to the HWRF through 48 hours.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16
kt, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the western extent
of a subtropical high to the north. Jose should continue on this
general west-northwestward track through the 36 hour period.
Afterward, the ridge to the north is forecast to weaken in response
to a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the northeast.
This transition in the synoptic steering pattern should influence
Jose in a more northwestward motion through the remainder of the
forecast period. The NHC forecast is slightly to the left of the
previous advisory beyond 48 hours, and is based on a blend of the
HFIP Corrected consensus model and the ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 14.8N 49.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 15.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.8N 54.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 17.2N 59.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 19.7N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 23.0N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 26.4N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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