Contender Countdown: Does anyone care that we don't have a frontrunner?

I've worked on Oscar campaigns and have covered this beat for a long time, but boy this is odd. We are days, even hours away from Academy members pressing send on their newfangled computers to end phase one of yet another great Oscar season and yet hardly anyone in Tinsletown feels secure about their contenders or which of their competitors is the true frontrunner. Yowzas!

It started out with "Argo," then "Lincoln," then "Zero Dark Thirty" and then "Les Miserables" (possibly for a weekend) and since then it's been something of a mess. Obviously, "frontrunner" status is basically whomever is winning the PR war with the press, guild members and Academy's loose mouths, but it dictates how campaigns are run and where (and if) money is spent. And frankly, unless there is a major shock in the editing or directing category nods we won't know much until the PGA and DGA announce their year-end winners. At this point, I'm ranking "Argo" at no. 1 because its primed for a comeback, has always been an industry favorite and its not clear their is enough passion for "Zero Dark Thirty" or "Lincoln." Of course, that could all change next week, but as a snapshot of the race we are where we are.

While never a 100% baramoter the PGA Awards nominations on Tuesday did clear a few things up regarding the rest of the field. "Flight," "The Master," "Amour," "The Impossible"? The bubbles are popping underneath your best picture nomination dreams. The biggest question remaining is whether the Academy will honor nine or 10 films. Considering the lack of a consistent frontrunner for the past five to six weeks, it's easy to speculate that split first place votes will find 10 nominees this year. Then again, perhaps they'll shock us all and go with only seven or eight? Whatever the outcome the Monday Morning Quarterbacking (on Thursday morning) will no doubt blame any result on the shortened voting season and cranky member's complaints over the online voting system. In fact, that's the safest bet of all.

1. Argo
Will it all come back to Ben Affleck's fall favorite? Is this 'The Departed' all over again? Some seem to think so.
2. Zero Dark Thirty
What political backlash? "Thirty" could land just as many nominations as "The Hurt Locker."

3. Lincoln
Some nice top 10 love, but only one critics' groups best picture of the year honor. It's a player, but is the passion there?
4. Life of Pi
The steady survivor in so many ways. Imagine if Fox Searchlight had run this campaign, it might have a shot at winning.

5. Silver Linings Playbook
After its sub par limited opening in November I bet a colleague it wouldn't make $30 million. Guess that word of mouth wasn't a joke, huh? By Saturday it will be time to pay up.

6. Les Miserables
Universal execs have to love the box office, but they also have to be scratching their heads over the viciousness of some of the reviews. At this point, making the nine or 10 nominee field would be the win.

7. Skyfall
PGA nod proves just how solid the industry adoration is. I've had it as "in" for almost two months, but hey, just sayin'.
8. Django Unchained
After debuting at such a late date, the in is the win.

9. Moonrise Kingdom
Could have been a true contender? Probably not, but after an overall rocky awards season Focus will be more than happy with securing a best picture nod for one of 2012's biggest indie hits.
10. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Should be in. Want to say it's in. Fingers crossed.

With over a decade of experience in the movie industry, Ellwood survived working for two major studios and has written for Variety, MSN and the LA Times. A co-founder of HitFix, Ellwood spends his time relaxing hitting 3’s on the basketball court and following his beloved Clippers.

As a big fan of Nolan's series, I still don't understand how you could put DKR over Skyfall. Besides maybe feeling guilty for not nominating The Dark Knight in '08, the film has no Oscar buzz at all besides an Art Director's Guild nom. Skyfall has PGA, Art Director's, BFCA, praised Cinematography and Javier Bardem, and is fresh on voters minds. It just doesn't make sense besides the whole "Oscar doesn't like Bond," which granted is true, but this film seems to have so much heat.

But the Academy doesn't always go with the better film. They go with the film that they personally love at the moment. I liked Skyfall a bit more this year and am not a huge Bond fan in general, but don't get me wrong I loved TDKR and the whole trilogy. I feel like if it wasn't going to happen for The Dark Knight, even with 10 nominees this year there is just too much competition for TDKR to get in. Especially when Skyfall is clearly taking over the buzz for the blockbuster of the year with all these nominations and the big "it just passed one billion dollars worldwide" news. Plus, don't forget about the Brits.

Blah, Blah, Blah. I'm sick of the crap TDKR has gotten. The film was listed by the NY Post, LA Times, Time Magazine, Newsweek/The Daily Beast, RollingStone, The Hollywood Reporter, and The AFI as one of the year's best. The only reason conversation has been quiet is that Auora happened and Nolan is competing with his last two films in terms of unreal expectations.

The real sad thing is how Skyfall has aped Nolan's films and is getting praised for it.

We can argue who deserves it more (TDKR or Skyfall) until the cow comes home. (And I think Pat's final comment is a very valid point.)However, Skyfall clearly has the better shot of being nominated. It has the PGA nod and momentum on it's side. Personally, I don't see either making it, but Skyfall clearly has the edge between the two.

M1, I stand by my statement. Following the horrific shoting, various publications (Hollywood Reporter, EW, USA Today, Deadline, etc) interviewed Academy Members who stated that the movie had no place in awards conversation because it dishonored those who died. I certainly find this reasoning highly questionable, but saying the killing that happened isn't an issue is a lie.

If it isn't a lie, you using it to say why it doesn't have a good chance at getting a best picture nomination is outrageous. Even if you could link me to those articles, I'd only go as far as to believe that a handful of Academy members wouldn't vote for it because that. It'd hardly be representative of the entire group.

Were expectations high for TDKR? Yes. Was it a mediocre film in spite of that? Yes. It's unfocused, it's poorly-edited, poorly-paced, and doesn't have the memorable moments that both Batman Begins and The Dark Knight had. The plot holes are too wide to ignore and the script is a combination of bad dialogue and metaphors Nolan aims to beat you over the head with.

I like the fact that there's no clear frontrunner. The Awards season gets boring and tiresome when one picture dominates all pre-season conversation (especially if it's a film you don't like). I do hope 10 films get the BP nod, because it leaves room for a lot of variety.

It's a fun year for sure. Same as the acting categories (except for Hathaway)

At the same time I think boring Lincoln will win it all. It will most likely win Drama at the Globes and Les Mis wins Comedy/Musical. SAG has to be between those two so what's left? Argo? Those Silver Linings predictions went away a long time ago and I can't see ZDT winning it all again just three years after The Hurt Locker.

I hope it all comes back to Argo in a Departed style year or at least a Chicago like year where the split happens in favor of the director of the true best picture like Polanski or like Soderbergh in 2000.

We might even see Spielberg get it the other way around this year. His film wins but he looses. But to Ben Affleck? Really? There really isn't any other director that could win. I doubt that the first woman to ever win an Oscar comes back and wins again three years later. Hooper, Lee, Russell, Haneke? They need to get to that nomination first.

I think a kind of split in which Spielberg wins Best Director and Lincoln loses the Best Picture race is possible. The film itself is a little tough for the academy members to vote as the best film, because it is less entertaining than some other contenders. But I think the Academy voters may be more likely to give Best Director award to Spielberg rather than Bigelow or Affleck. As you mentioned, it may be too early to crown Bigelow just three years after her last win (and also for a very similar subject and directorial form). Also it may be early for an actor-turned-director like Affleck to win best director award, and also Argo does not seem to be a great directorial achievement. But it is possible that Argo wins Best Picture because it is entertaining and is loved by industry members.

"Also it may be early for an actor-turned-director like Affleck to win best director award,"He has more films on his career than Warren Beatty, Robert Redford, Kevin Costner and Mel Gibson. And more critical acclaim than any of them.

Sorry but your not being realistic about the BP nominees. Skyfall will not get nominated! It would have to beat out The Master, The Dark Knight Rises, Amour, The Hobbit, and The Impossible and that won't happen. Skyfall is a Chris Nolan wanabee. And I also dont understand how this site hates TDKR. Its one of the best films of all time, and I don't see how you could not like it? You've had it out for TDKR all season! Its getting rewarded by a lot of top tens, so you guys just look dumb by hating on it.

The Oscar voters have to choose their number one movie of year when voting for best picture. Not their number two or three, but number one. I can't imagine any voters choosing Skyfall or The Dark Knight Rises as their number one favorite movie of the year.

I hope that Argo doesn't win best picture. At least The Departed had bite. And a better script. Don't get me wrong. Argo is entertaining. But I felt no need to watch it again after I saw it. Which doesn't spell best picture to me.

Completely agree, I actually didnsee Argo again just to see if I was falling victim to overhyped-ness and Infelt the exact same way on round 2: Entertaining, well-made, but very movie-of-the-week with little crackle or bite (The Departed is a terrible comparison - in relation to film quality, anyway). I'm rooting for a Django nomination and I do think Master has a good shot at getting craft admiration and scorinf a nod, many critics groups have awarded it the top prize...more groups than Lincoln for sure (DDL winning Best Actor is the same as the movie winning, he is Lincoln).

And as for the TDKR and Skyfall debate, who cares if you pick out the Nolan-isms in the Bond movie? In 2012, Mendes out-Nolan-ed Nolan. Skyfall FTW!

Lincoln won't need critics awards with Steven Speilberg, 137 million in the bank (higher than all potential nominees, atm, excecpt Skyfall, but that's not happening), and the most total nominations in its back pocket.

It has an 86 on MC, historical significance, importance and the zeitgeist. To me, it's a clear frontrunner, but Argo does make me nervous.