Bubble watch: Wyoming. The Cowboys seemed destined to fall out of this week’s Field of 68. An 11 seed last Monday, they’re without leading scorer Luke Martinez (suspended indefinitely for his role in a bar fight that left him with a broken hand), and they scored just 36 points in a road loss at Fresno State on Wednesday. Then, the Cowboys showed why part of the reason they won their first 13 games this season, holding conference favorite San Diego State to just nine first-half points in an eventual 13-point victory over the country’s No. 15 team. They’ll need a similar defensive effort at UNLV on Thursday.

Toughest to seed: Illinois. At the moment, the Fighting Illini don’t look anything like an NCAA Tournament team. They’re just 1-4 in Big Ten play and most recently lost by 14 points at home to a Northwestern team that’s barely on the NCAA bubble. But, the Illini’s top three wins this season—against Butler (neutral), Gonzaga (road) and Ohio State (home)—match up with just about any team in the country. Those wins matter to the tournament selection committee, and they’re the primary reason Illinois lands at 9 this week.

Injury issues: Missouri. The Tigers have been without leading scorer Laurence Bowers, who has a sprained MCL, for three SEC games. Two of those were on the road, and the Tigers weren’t even remotely competitive—they scored just 49 points at Ole Miss and lost by 31 at Florida. The Tigers miss Bowers, the athletic 6-foot-8 senior averaging 16.8 points, on both sides of the court, but it was impossible to watch either of those losses and conclude that any one player—short of maybe LeBron James—would have made the difference between victory and defeat. Coach Frank Haith said on Monday that Bowers will be out for Tuesday’s game with South Carolina, and that wings Keion Bell and Earnest Ross could miss the game, too.

One-bid league spotlight: Belmont. The Bruins are good enough to pull off a few upsets and make the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend, but they’ll almost certainly need to win the automatic bid in their new league (Ohio Valley) to earn a berth. Losses to Northeastern (RPI 129) and Central Florida (RPI 103) make it hard to see an at-large berth on Selection Sunday. Guard Ian Clark is playing like a potential March hero, though; in his past five games, he’s averaging 25.0 points while shooting a blistering 61.1 percent from beyond the arc (22-for-36) and a ridiculous 78.6 percent (22-for-28) on his 2-point attempts.

Use arrow keys to navigate

1

of 18

No. 1 seeds

Teams: Duke, Kansas (Big 12), Michigan, Syracuse (Big East)

The Blue Devils don’t have senior big man Ryan Kelly, but they still have clearly the best NCAA Tournament resume, which starts with their stellar four best wins (Louisville, Minnesota, Ohio State and VCU). Their game Wednesday at Miami (Fla.) will be one of their toughest tests of the season; the Hurricanes have a big and productive front line, even without injured big man Reggie Johnson.

Note: Automatic bids, listed in parenthesis, are given to the team with the best conference record (through Sunday’s games), with overall record used to break ties.

2

of 18

No. 2 seeds

Teams: Arizona, Louisville, Florida, Butler

The Butler Bulldogs have wins over two teams ranked in this week’s top 10 (Indiana and Gonzaga), and they won both in the dramatic fashion we’ve come to expect from Brad Stevens’ club over the past few years. As much as any team in the country, the Bulldogs just find a way to win, regardless of what obstacles might be presented any given night. There isn’t much time to rest in a good Atlantic 10, though—they play on the road against a very good La Salle team and host Temple this week.

Speaking of tough leagues, Minnesota is coming off back-to-back brutal games, and even though the Golden Gophers lost both (at Indiana, vs. Michigan), they’re still ranked in the top 10 in the RPI and kenpom.com standings. This week isn’t much easier for the Gophers; they play road games at Northwestern and at Wisconsin.

The Mountain West is another brutally tough conference—as many as six of the league’s nine teams could make the NCAA Tournament—and through three games, only New Mexico has managed to stay unscathed. The Lobos pulled out an overtime victory at Boise State on Wednesday, thanks to strong 3-point shooting from Tony Snell, Hugh Greenwood and Jamal Fenton—the trio combined to go 9-for-15 from beyond the arc. This week, the Lobos play two more NCAA-bound MWC teams; they host Colorado State on Wednesday and visit San Diego State on Saturday.

Oregon was a bubble team when the non-conference portion of the schedule ended—a loss against Texas-El Paso conflicted with a win against UNLV—but the Ducks are pretty much a lock at this point. They’ve started Pac-12 play with a 5-0 record that includes wins over the conference’s two other best teams (Arizona and UCLA). They host the two Washington teams this week.

6

of 18

No. 6 seeds

Teams: VCU (Atlantic 10), Missouri, UNLV, Cincinnati

If seeds for the NCAA Tournament were determined by “excitement factor,” VCU would be a No. 1 seed. As it stands, the Rams are a very good, very dangerous team that nobody would want to face in a tournament game, but their resume lacks any sort of signature win—by both RPI and kenpom.com ratings, Belmont and Memphis are their two best victories. Climbing into the 3-4 seed range will require lots of A-10 victories, including one at Butler on March 2.

7

of 18

No. 7 seeds

Teams: San Diego State, Mississippi (SEC), Wisconsin, UCLA

That “thud” you heard last week was San Diego State running into a couple of MWC roadblocks, UNLV and Wyoming. Both are solid teams, but if the Aztecs want a good NCAA Tournament seed, they need to beat UNLV at home and win on the road against a shorthanded Wyoming squad. Wins this week at Nevada and at home against New Mexico would help right the ship.

8

of 18

No. 8 seeds

Teams: Oklahoma State, Marquette, Colorado State, Notre Dame

This is, apparently, the week to talk about Mountain West basketball. Colorado State had a good week, winning a pair of home games against Air Force and UNLV. The Rams, who play at New Mexico and Fresno State this week, need Wes Eikmeier to continue his strong play lately; in the 2012 portion of the schedule, the 6-3 senior was averaging 9.8 points per game, but after the calendar flipped to 2013, he’s averaged 15.6 points per game, including 21 against St. Bonaventure and 22 at San Diego State.

9

of 18

No. 9 seeds

Teams: Illinois, Memphis, Pittsburgh, North Carolina

For the moment, panic has been put on a Chapel Hill backburner. Wins against Florida State and Maryland don’t make North Carolina an NCAA Tournament lock, but at least the Tar Heels didn’t lose those contests. This Saturday’s road game at N.C. State is huge, for both Triangle bragging rights and tournament resume implications.

10

of 18

No. 10 seeds

Teams: Kentucky, Temple, Baylor, Georgetown

Has there been a more hit-or-miss team this season than Temple? The Owls are the only team to beat Syracuse, and they pushed Kansas down to the final minute in Allen Fieldhouse, one of the toughest places in the country for road teams to play. But they’ve also lost to Canisius, St. Bonaventure and Xavier, three teams that aren’t going to make the NCAA Tournament without winning a conference tournament. If the Owls have a couple more stumbles, they might be in a similar predicament.

11

of 18

No. 11 seeds

Teams: Colorado, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Belmont (Ohio Valley)

We’re squarely in the make-or-break portion of Oklahoma’s schedule. After Monday’s game against Texas, the Sooners, who are 21st in the RPI after losing a competitive game at Kansas State on Saturday, play at Kansas, at Baylor, vs. K-State, at Iowa State and vs. Kansas. According to kenpom.com, the Sooners are only favored in one of those games (at home against K-State), and if that holds true, a 1-4 mark in that stretch would put Lon Kruger’s team behind the NCAA Tournament 8-ball.

The computer numbers are kind to Iowa State—37th in the RPI and 31st in the kenpom.com ratings—but the Cyclone’s best win to date (vs. BYU) won’t lock down an at-large bid. Beating Kansas State at home on Saturday would be a great start to an important stretch; games at Oklahoma State, vs. Baylor, vs. Oklahoma and at K-State follow.