Hillary Clinton, a mistake for 2016

By David Frum, CNN Contributor

Updated 8:11 AM ET, Tue April 2, 2013

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, pictured in October 2012, has become one of the most powerful people in Washington. Here's a look at her life and career through the years:

Hide Caption

1 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Before she married Bill Clinton, she was Hillary Rodham. Here, Rodham talks about student protests in 1969, which she supported in her commencement speech at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts.

Hide Caption

2 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Rodham, center, a lawyer for the Rodino Committee, and John Doar, left, chief counsel for the committee, bring impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon in the Judiciary Committee hearing room at the U.S. Capitol in 1974.

Hide Caption

3 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton helps first lady Rosalynn Carter on a campaign swing through Arkansas in June 1979. Also seen in the photo is Hillary Clinton, center background.

Hide Caption

4 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Bill Clinton embraces his wife shortly after a stage light fell near her on January 26, 1992. They talk to Don Hewitt, producer of the CBS show "60 Minutes."

Hide Caption

5 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – With Hillary, Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton waves to the crowd at his victory party after winning the Illinois primary on March 17, 1992.

Hide Caption

6 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Al Gore, Tipper Gore, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton wave to supporters at the Chautauqua Institution in Chautauqua, New York, after they gave speeches on family values on August 23, 1992.

Hide Caption

7 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton gestures at a campaign rally November 3, 1992, in Denver. After taking office, President Clinton chose his wife to head a special commission on health care reform, the most significant public policy initiative of his first year in office.

Hide Caption

8 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Bill and Hillary Clinton have a laugh together on Capitol Hill in 1993.

Hide Caption

9 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton pours herself a cup of tea in 1993 while testifying to the Senate Education and Labor Committee about health care reform.

Hide Caption

10 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton speaks at George Washington University on September 10, 1993, in Washington during her husband's first term.

Hide Caption

11 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton waves to the media on January 26, 1996, as she arrives at federal court in Washington for an appearance before a grand jury. The first lady was subpoenaed to testify as a witness in the investigation of the Whitewater land deal in Arkansas.

Hide Caption

12 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Hillary Clinton looks on as President Clinton discusses the Monica Lewinsky scandal in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on January 26, 1998.

Hide Caption

13 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Hillary and Bill Clinton arrive at Foundry United Methodist Church on August 16, 1998, in Washington. He became the first sitting president to testify before a grand jury when he testified via satellite about the Lewinsky matter.

Hide Caption

14 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton shakes hands during a St. Patrick's Day parade in the Sunnyside neighborhood of Queens, New York, on March 5, 2000.

Hide Caption

15 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton waves to the crowd as she arrives on the stage at the Democratic National Convention on August 14, 2000, in Los Angeles.

Hide Caption

16 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton campaigns for a Senate seat October 25, 2000, at Grand Central Station in New York.

Hide Caption

17 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Hillary Clinton is sworn in as a senator of New York in a re-enactment ceremony with, from left, President Clinton, nephew Tyler, daughter Chelsea, brother Hugh Rodham, mother Dorothy Rodham and Vice President Al Gore on January 3, 2001, in Washington.

Hide Caption

18 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Andrew Cuomo, Eliot Spitzer and Clinton celebrate with a crowd of Democratic supporters after their wins in various races November 7, 2006, in New York.

Hide Caption

19 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton speaks during a post-primary rally on January 8, 2007, at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Hide Caption

20 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – The Clintons pay a visit to the 92nd annual Hopkinton State Fair in Contoocook, New Hampshire, on September 2, 2007.

Hide Caption

21 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton speaks at a campaign rally September 2, 2007, in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. She was running for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Hide Caption

22 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton addresses a question during a debate with other Democratic presidential candidate at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire, on September 26, 2007. Also pictured are U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, left, and former U.S. Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska.

Hide Caption

23 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Felipe Bravo, left, and Christian Caraballo are covered with Hillary Clinton stickers in downtown Manchester, New Hampshire, on January 8, 2008.

Hide Caption

24 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton campaigns in Council Bluffs, Iowa, with her daughter, Chelsea, on January 1, 2008, two days ahead of the January 3 state caucus.

Hide Caption

25 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton waves as she speaks to supporters at the National Building Museum on June 7, 2008, in Washington. After pulling out of the presidential race, Clinton thanked her supporters and urged them to back Barack Obama to be the next president of the United States.

Hide Caption

26 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Obama and Clinton talk on the plane on their way to a Unity Rally in Unity, New Hampshire, on June 27, 2008.

Hide Caption

27 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Obama watches Clinton address the Democratic National Convention on August 26, 2008. The two endured a long, heated contest for the 2008 nomination.

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton testifies during her confirmation hearing for secretary of state on January 13, 2009, in Washington.

Hide Caption

30 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton, as secretary of state, dances with a local choir while visiting the Victoria Mxenge Housing Project in Philippi, a township on the outskirts of Cape Town, South Africa, on August 8, 2009.

Hide Caption

31 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton looks through binoculars toward North Korea during a visit to an observation post July 21, 2010, at the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas.

Hide Caption

32 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton walks up the steps to her aircraft as she leaves a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on July 23, 2010, in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Hide Caption

33 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Hillary and Bill Clinton pose on the day of their daughter's wedding to Marc Mezvinsky on July 31, 2010, in Rhinebeck, New York.

Hide Caption

34 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – U.S. President Barack Obama and Clinton observe a moment of silence before a NATO meeting November 19, 2010, in Lisbon, Portugal.

Hide Caption

35 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton listens as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu makes a brief statement November 29, 2010, before a bilateral meeting at the State Department in Washington.

Hide Caption

36 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton shakes hands with a child during an unannounced walk through Tahrir Square in Cairo on March 16, 2011.

Hide Caption

37 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Clinton and members of Obama's national security team receive an update on the Osama bin Laden mission May 1, 2011, in the Situation Room of the White House.

Hide Caption

38 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton checks her personal digital assistant prior to departing Malta on October 18, 2011.

Hide Caption

39 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton dances while in Cartagena, Colombia, on April 15, 2012.

Hide Caption

40 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton enjoys a beer at Cafe Havana in Cartagena, Colombia, on April 15, 2012.

Hide Caption

41 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton appears with little makeup during an event in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on May 6, 2012. She tells CNN, "I feel so relieved to be at the stage I'm at in my life right now ... Because you know if I want to wear my glasses, I'm wearing my glasses. If I want to wear my hair back I'm pulling my hair back. You know at some point it's just not something that deserves a lot of time and attention."

Hide Caption

42 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton speaks as Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai listens during a news conference at the presidential palace in Kabul, Afghanistan, on July 7, 2012.

Hide Caption

43 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton arrives at Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel on July 15, 2012.

Hide Caption

44 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton looks on as Obama makes a statement in response to the attack at the U.S. Consulate in Libya on September 12, 2012.

Hide Caption

45 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton applauds Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi during a ceremony where Suu Kyi was presented with the Congressional Gold Medal on September 19, 2012.

Hide Caption

46 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Bill Clinton kisses his wife after introducing her at the Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting on September 24, 2012, in New York City.

Hide Caption

47 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton shakes hands with Libyan President Mohamed Magariaf on September 24, 2012, in New York.

Hide Caption

48 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton stands during a news conference following meetings at the prime minister's office in Pristina, Kosovo, on October 31, 2012. Clinton said that Kosovo's unilaterally declared independence, fiercely opposed by Serbia, was "not up for discussion."

Hide Caption

49 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton chats with Suu Kyi before Obama speaks at the University of Yangon in Yangon, Myanmar, on November 19, 2012.

Hide Caption

50 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Obama looks at Clinton before the start of a bilateral meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, far right, during the East Asian Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on November 20, 2012.

Hide Caption

51 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shakes hands with Clinton at the prime minister's office November 20, 2012, in Jerusalem.

Hide Caption

52 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton receives a sports jersey and football helmet from Deputy Secretary Tom Nides, center, after returning to work on January 7, 2013, following a fall where she hit her head and doctors later detected a blood clot. The number 112 represented the number of countries that she had visited as secretary of state.

Hide Caption

53 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton and her husband arrive for the inauguration for Obama's second term on January 21, 2013.

Hide Caption

54 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton testifies before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Capitol Hill on January 23, 2013. Lawmakers questioned Clinton about the security failures during the Benghazi, Libya, attacks that led to the death of four Americans, including U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens.

Hide Caption

55 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – From left, first lady Michelle Obama stands with former first ladies Laura Bush, Clinton, Barbara Bush and Rosalynn Carter at the opening ceremony of the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Dallas on April 25, 2013.

Hide Caption

56 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – From left, Clinton, former first lady Laura Bush and former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush listen to speakers during the memorial service for Nelson Mandela in Soweto, South Africa, on December 10.

Hide Caption

57 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Photos: Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton ducks after a woman threw a shoe at her while she was delivering remarks at the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries conference in Las Vegas on April 10.

Hide Caption

58 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Photos: Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton tours the National September 11 Memorial & Museum in New York with President Barack Obama, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, first lady Michelle Obama and former President Clinton on May 15.

Hide Caption

59 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton sits down with ABC News anchor Diane Sawyer on Thursday, June 5, for her first television interview in conjunction with the release of her new book, "Hard Choices."

Hide Caption

60 of 61

Photos: Clinton's political career61 photos

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight – Clinton makes 10-year-old Macy Friday's day as she campaigns for U.S. Sen. Mark Udall during a stop Monday, October 13, in Union Station in Denver.

Story highlights

He says after eight years in the White House, Democrats should reassess their future

Picking Hillary Clinton would be a backward-looking move, he says

Frum: Clinton would arrive in office without a platform or much of a mandate

Democrats seem poised to choose their next presidential nominee the way Republicans often choose theirs: according to the principle of "next in line."

Hillary Clinton came second in the nomination fight of 2008. If she were a Republican, that would make her a near-certainty to be nominated in 2016. Five of the past six Republican nominees had finished second in the previous round of primaries. (The sixth was George W. Bush, son of the most recent Republican president.)

Democrats, by contrast, prefer newcomers. Six of their eight nominees since 1972 had never sought national office before.

Obviously, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Democrats chose the next guy in line in 2000 -- Vice President Al Gore -- and they may well do so again. But speaking from across the aisle, it's just this one observer's opinion that Democrats would be poorly served by following the Republican example when President Obama's term ends.

David Frum

Hillary Clinton is 14 years older than Barack Obama. A party has never nominated a leader that much older than his immediate predecessor. (The previous record-holder was James Buchanan, 13 years older than Franklin Pierce when the Democrats chose him in 1856. Runner-up: Dwight Eisenhower, 12 years older than his predecessor, Thomas Dewey.)

Parties have good reasons to avoid reaching back to politicians of prior generations. When they do, they bring forward not only the ideas of the past, but also the personalities and the quarrels of the past.

One particular quarrel that a Hillary Clinton nomination would bring forward is the quarrel over the ethical standards of the Clinton White House -- and, maybe even more, of the Clintons' post-White House careers. Relying on Hillary Clinton's annual financial disclosure reports, CNN reported last year that former President Bill Clinton had earned $89 million in speaking fees since leaving the White House in 2001. Many of these earnings came from foreign sources. In 2011 alone, the former president earned $6.1 million from 16 speeches in 11 foreign countries.

Is it an ethical problem for the husband of the person charged with the foreign affairs of the United States to earn so much foreign-sourced income? Let's rephrase that question: How much time do Democrats wish to spend arguing the ethics of Bill Clinton's foreign earnings over the 2016 political cycle?

Just Watched

Hillary Clinton backs same-sex marriage

Just Watched

Obama-Clinton rift examined in book

Yet the biggest risk to Democrats from a Hillary Clinton nomination is not that it would be generationally backward-looking -- or that it would reopen embarrassing ethical disputes -- but that it would short-circuit the necessary work of party renewal.

After eight years in the White House, a party requires a self-appraisal and a debate over its way forward. Bill Clinton offered Democrats just such a debate in 1992 with his "New Democrat" ideas. Barack Obama offered another in 2008 with his careful but unmistakable criticism of Clinton-era domestic policies and Hillary Clinton's Iraq war vote. But if Hillary Clinton glides into the nomination in 2016 on the strength of money, name recognition, and a generalized feeling of "It's her turn," then Democrats will forgo this necessary renewal.

Here's what could happen instead in 2016:

One candidate could seek the Democratic nomination on a platform of keeping faith with the ideals of the pre-presidential Obama: closing Guantanamo, ending targeted killings, and so on.

Another Democrat could run to represent those Democrats who supported Bill Clinton back in the 1990s, and who worry that the Obama administration has drifted too far to the left: spending too much, ignoring budget deficits, getting into too many fights with business.

Yet another could run as a full-throated defender of the Obama legacy, updating the 1988 George H.W. Bush "stay the course" message.

This would be a real debate that would summon forth hard thinking about how Democrats might govern their country if returned for a third presidential term (as could very well happen, given the continuing political weakness of the GOP).

A Hillary Clinton campaign would want to shut down any such debate before it starts. It would want to inherit the Democratic nomination and then the presidency as an estate in reversion: a debt long owed, now collected. If successful, it would arrive in office without a platform and without much of a mandate. That's not a formula for an effective presidency -- or a healthy democracy.