Even those professionals whose typing proficiency hovers around the
"hunt-and-peck" level had best get their fingers prepared to
do the walking over a keyboard before many more years, if projection in
the flurry of reports from industry watchers and analysts come to pass
in even modest proportions.

Executive workstations, intergrated voice/data terminals, or
whatever they're called, from a growing number of suppliers, have
been around for only a few years, but now appear poised on the brink of
rapid proliferation. The ubiquitous personal computer is invading the
office, as well as the home, and is playing a key role to lessen
executives' fear of the keyboard.

Frost & Sullivan, the New York City--based research firm, feels
that by 1990 the executive workstation will be as common in the office
as the telephone is today. Its new report on "The Market for
Professional/Executive Workstations" sees increasing demand for
products at current technology rates, rather than new breakthroughs,
driving the market from about $2.5 billion in current annual sales to
nearly $7 billion in 1988 (in constant dollars).

A survey carried out in connection with the study supports the idea
that the unwillingness of executives to use a keyboard is changing. It
found that 25 percent of the respondents believed that their
organizations will purchase at least 100 executive workstations over the
next five years. The survey indicates that executives typically expect
workstations to have graphic and electronic communication capability, to
perform electronic mail service and to provide computaional/analytical
support.

International Resource Development of Norwalk, Connecticut believes
that "most vendors of integrated voice/data terminals (IVDTs) are
completely missing the boat when it comes to targeting their users.
They are making IVDTs for a mythical creature called 'Every
Executive', and are overlooking the real-world white-collar workers who actually stand to gain the most in the shortest amount of time by
using an IVDT."

Explaining IRD's new findings on IVDTs, researcher Joan de
Regt says, "Executives and managers may not spend their time with
telephones practically attached to their ears, but a certain breed of
employees does--what we call the professional information manipulator.
This person could be anyone from an account rep for Ameritech, to a
reporter for the Los Angeles Times. They stand to gain a great deal by
reducing 'telephone tag' having fingertip access to key data
bases, and having the use of intelligent feature-phone functions
combined with some computing capability. There are also many more of
these individuals than there are executives, making them a more
attractive 'target.'"

Yet another study, by Advanced Resources Development of Medfield,
Massachusetts, points out that 1983 marked the first year in which
shipments of integrated telephone/display terminals reached significant
levels--more than 32,000 units at a value exceeding $43 million. It
expects a further source of growth for the market to come from the
recently announced entries of such firms as TeleVideo, Rolm,
AT&T-IS, Sydis and AMBI (formerly Digital transactions).

It sees the present market consisting largely of low-end,
non-intelligent terminals such as Northern Telecom's Displayphone,
Tymshare's Scanset XL and GTE's ActionStation. ARD notes that
these devices are marketed through two primary channels: as devices for
access to public data bases and communications networks; and as high-end
telephone devices in voice/data PBX networks. It sees the second
largest segment of the integrated telephone/display market in the
multi-function workstation segment, "currently dominated by Mitel,
with its Kontact workstation, and Davoxm, with its Series 921
workstation." It says that these devices "will be
particularly attractive to managers and executives who required both
fully featured telephone devices and stand-alone data-processing
devices."

ARD goes on to explain that a small segment at present consists of
word processing stations with integrated telephones, such as the one
from Basic Telecommunications. Need Clearer Applications

According to Mary Owen, director of ARD's Terminal Research
Service, "although voice/display products have a tremendous
potential for growth, we feel that much of this potential will be
hampered by unclear target markets and applications. As these problems
are overcome, shipments could skyrocket, but we don't expect to see
that for at least five years. Until then, the major source of growth in
this market will be application-specific sales, for data base access or
along with voice/data communication networks." She predicts
shipment levels to reach more than 200,000 units annually by 1986.

Venture Development Corporation of Wellesley, Massachussetts, in a
new report on "CRT Phone Terminal Markets," sees a period of
"extraordinary sales growth." VDC says that although the total
installed base for these units was at 30,000 at the end of 1983,
"total shipments for 1984 alone are expected to exceed 40,000, and
nearly 200,000 of these devices will be in use by 1987."

According to VDC, this product is primarily aimed at professional
and executive white-collar workers who do not necessarily need or want
to use keyboard devices but who do need a personal communications
instrument that's designed to access information rather than
process it. VDC's figures estimate that Northern Telecom's
Displayphone accounted for 43 percent of the shipments of these devices
last year.

VDC's study also notes that most CRT phone shipments have been
or generic units--those that operate with any phone system. But it
expects this to change as units designed as front ends for particular
PBX networks show the greatest growth in both unit shipments and
revenues. By 1987, it says, shipments of CRT phone terminals for use
with specific PBX systems will account for over 70 percent of total
units shipments.

Another recent Venture Development study, "US Executive
Workstation Markets--1983-1990," takes a somewhat broader view of
workstations, predicting that shipments of advanced executive
workstations will increase from 46,000 in 1983 to over half a million in
1990, an average annual growth rate of more than 40 percent. It says
that unit shipments in each of the four product/market segments will
vary in their growth patterns. Voice/data workstations for executives
(vice president-level and above) will be the fastest-growing category,
followed by sales of similar units for the middle-management market.
VDC says sales of data-only executive workstations for middle managers
will increase faster than sales of data-only executive workstations for
executives.

VDC sees the growth in executive workstations being fueled by
several factors. One is the interest in personal computers, which can
also be viewed as a competitor to the workstations. VDC sees executive
workstations benefiting from their position as "a friendly and
flexible alternative to a personal computer." Another key factor
in growth will be the availability of advanced communications
capabilities, says VDC. In some cases, workstations even provide for
voice communication. This can be an especially valuable feature
addition given that executives and middle managers can spend as much as
50 percent of their time on the phone. Both voice mail and the ability
to call up decision data while on the phone make phone time more
productive."

According to VDC, "manufacturers of executive workstations are
beginning to notice 'bandwagon' and 'filter-down'
effects associated with this new product. The bandwagon effect is
similar to keeping up with the Jones's. Once one executive has an
executive workstation, other executives become interested." VDC
says the results of a user survey found that once a company owns an
executive workstation, the purchase rate of additional units is over 90
percent.

Whatever the reasons, these terminals in all their various
configurations and capabilities are here, and chances are one's in
your immediate future.

COPYRIGHT 1984 Nelson Publishing
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