The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

Jaegers—including the dashing, acrobatic Parasitic—inhabit two realms particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change: the Arctic in summer and open oceans in winter. Today Parasitic Jaegers nest across a broad swath of dry, often rocky and hilly, tundra in North America and Eurasia, but Audubon's climate model forecasts a sizable loss of about one-third of areas with suitable climate in summer. Areas with suitable climate for wintering birds are forecast to decline more sharply. However, that dire prediction is tempered somewhat by the fact that most of the Parasitic Jaeger’s offshore wintering grounds lie outside U.S. waters.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.