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17 Parties questions and sensitivities Is there a need for day-ahead commitment requirement? Whats the sensitivity of results with 90% vs. 95% coverage of forecast errors? Whats the combined effect of sensitivities TURN explored? What if the system can integrate 20% RPS with 15%- 17% PRM in 2020?

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18 Is there a need for day-ahead commitment requirement? Day-ahead or multi-hour commitment is needed because more than 50% of the existing fleet requires 5 hours or more to start If day-ahead commitment is not considered, resource need decreases by less than 1,000 MW in 33% RPS Reference Scenario 33% RPS Scenarios Resource Requirement for Integration (MW) in 2020

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21 What if the system can integrate 20% RPS with 15%-17% PRM in 2020? Assuming the system with 15%-17% PRM can integrate 20% RPS in 2020, resource need for 33% RPS is reduced by ~1,000 MW 4,800 MWRIM estimate for 33% RPS in 2020 - 1,100 MWRIM estimate for 20% RPS in 2020 3,700 MWRIM estimate for 33% RPS in 2020, assuming system can integrate 20% RPS with 15%-17% PRM in 2020

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23 Insights from analysis Critical need hours shift from afternoon to evening Increased forecast uncertainty and variability also contribute to integration need/cost There is a substantial amount of intermittent renewable NQC that does not reduce resource need

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24 Next steps Update RPS scenarios based on scoping memo Continue work with CAISO and other parties to improve model inputs and model functionality –Calibrate balance year assumption or find simplified ways to represent existing system integration capability –Calibrate variable integration cost inputs Welcome suggestions for improvements to the model