On the supply side, global stocks ended up 6.8 million tons to a record 238.9 million tons. In the U.S., ending stocks are the highest they have been since 2009/10. On the demand side, China and India – both huge wheat consumers – both called for lower-than-expected consumption.

“If you look at the daily wheat chart on March, we are down at the lows we set back in December,” he says. “I’m worried that we’re going to keep going lower as we get into the tail end of winter and into spring. Historically, when we come out of [an El Niño and it transitions toward] a La Niña year like this year, we tend to have really good wheat yields because we have a wet spring.”

McNew says he is worried about sluggish exports due to continued competition problems spurred along by a strong dollar and compounded by favorable spring conditions that could set up a big U.S. crop.