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Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Reds are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Bailey posted the best season of his career in 2013, and stayed healthy for the second consecutive year. 28 in May, he's due a large raise for his contract year. Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point. If the Reds don't see Bailey as a potential $100MM pitcher for them, they'll have to decide whether to trade him now, trade him during the season, or just let him walk as a free agent. Brandon Phillips might be the Reds' preferred salary to clear this winter, but Bailey is another option and would bring a much larger return. Replacing his production in the rotation is the hard part.
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Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

I know you were highlighting the portion of the article relating to a potential Bailey extension, but I had forgotten about Chapman's strange contract that allows him to go through arbitration while still collecting his scheduled salary as a bonus. In my mind, this reinforces the idea that he should be traded if he is not going to start. He's going to get expensive very quickly. Maybe the Tigers would deal a very good prospect for Chapman? Maybe even Castellanos? They have to be looking to upgrade their bullpen after watching late leads evaporate multiple times in the ALCS.

Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

Under those projections, Bailey, Leake, Chapman and Latos would make 11M than in 2013.

There's your Arroyo money for 2014 to hold the rest of the staff + Chapman together. Chapman's case will be interesting.

Hanigan 2.3M and Heisey 1.7M

Corky - was that a joke?

The Reds need to decide if they want Latos or Bailey to lead the staff for the next half decade plus. Once they make a decision, they need to get that guy signed immediately and trade the other pitcher for a big return ASAP. The team simply can't afford both guys moving forward.

Also, Heisey is rapidly moving towards DFA territory. I like him, but I don't know if he's worth $2M+. It's a drop in the bucket in the scheme of things, but there is such a thing as death by a thousand cuts.

Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point

I think this would lead us to trading Bailey this season. Just did some quick math and if we give both Bailey and Latos similar extensions now using the 5 for 85 mentions in the article. We would be at $110M for 2015 already and that only includes Votto, Phillips, Hannahan, Bruce, Ludwick, Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Marshall, and Broxton. That does not include arb eligible players or FAs either. Not only that, but then you have to worry about extensions to Cueto and Leake after that season too.

I think with the hiring of Price as manager, Chapman has to be moved to the rotation, and then you have to trade Bailey. He is going to be too expensive, especially when you have Stephenson coming through the ranks. If Chapman doesn't work out, there are plenty of journeymen out there that can fill the gap. Heck, I remember a few years ago when LeCure was starting due to injuries. Either way, Bailey gets moved for a bat and saves this team money.

Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

I think it's going to be fascinating to see what happens with both BP and our SP. Assuming the Reds are interested in dealing them, the 2B market may be frozen until Cano signs and the SP market may be frozen until David Price is traded.

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

Likes:

Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

I don't see why any pitcher the stature of Bailey or Latos would sign without testing the free agent market. I think longer range planning has to be based on the very slim likelihood either will sign with the Reds.

Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I don't see why any pitcher the stature of Bailey or Latos would sign without testing the free agent market. I think longer range planning has to be based on the very slim likelihood either will sign with the Reds.

Well, you can try and preempt by making a fat offer but craziness like the Lincecum contract and the rumored Kershaw price tag makes that very expensive. I agree - the plan should be to develop and plan as if neither will remain but hope one can be persuaded.

"If this was a court of law, the cross examination would go after the credibility of the witness." Homer Bailey on Latos snarking on the team after his trade

Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I don't see why any pitcher the stature of Bailey or Latos would sign without testing the free agent market. I think longer range planning has to be based on the very slim likelihood either will sign with the Reds.

Either should sign a close to market deal unless he can guarantee that his arm won't go out on their next pitch.

IMO neither Heisey nor Paul is a lock to get a contract tender. Heisey is projected (see opening post) to get $1.7 million in arbitration, I think that makes him vulnerable. Paul, at $1 million, less vulnerable but no lock.

I think this December 2 date could expedite trades. Teams like to acquire arbitration eligible players before the exchange of numbers, as I understand, so the new team can control the process.

The Reds currently have 41 men on their 40 man roster (unofficially) because Schumaker isn't formally signed up yet. Given this 12/2 deadline, which is immediately after Thanksgiving weekend, I think we may be in for some more player movement soon.

At the least, Hanigan's situation could be resolved because I'd think his new team will want to acquire him before the 12/2 deadline. If the Reds don't want to pay Heisey his likely arb salary, they could deal him by 12/2 also.

Re: Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

If all it takes is $9 mm to keep Bailey this year, pay him. You can trade him at the deadline if we're out of the running or grab a pick if he walks at the end of the year.
He'll be in his contract year, hopefully he'll make the best of it for the REDS.

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