A selection of weekly articles by top Bahamian commentators.

August 09, 2006

How Castro's Exit will Affect Cuba and the Bahamas

by Larry Smith

Flipping through the channels one sleepless night, we happened upon a grainy black and white interview of Fidel Castro by the late Jack Paar, a former host of NBC's Tonight Show.

Turns out that Paar was enthusiastically welcoming a young Fidel in a Havana hotel on the very night that he became the pre-eminent political leader of Cuba in February 1959 - a month or so after the revolutionaries rode into the capital on tanks. It is said to be Castro's only on-camera interview with an American conducted in English.

Smiling, affable and smoking a trademark cigar, Castro told Paar (who was concerned that he might be tired after the revolution) that he could "ask all that you want for the public opinion of the United States."

There was nothing particularly insightful in that brief conversation - it was just a frozen moment in time resonating across half a century, from the point when Castro first arrived on the world scene to the point where he is about to exit stage left.

In the late 1950s Cubans from all walks of life united against their despised president, Fulgencia Batista. And Castro, a lawyer and onetime election candidate, became a charismatic revolutionary figure who described his political goals as "representative democracy and social justice in a well-planned economy."

After moderates broke with the Revolution and were either executed, imprisoned or exiled, the US made a fatal mistake by supporting Cuban exiles in the failed 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion. Ever since, Castro has maintained a special intransigence towards America, which led to a nuclear showdown at the height of the Cold War.

But many believe that Castro's dislike for the United States has deeper roots. His father (a wealthy Spanish plantation owner) moved to Cuba after Spain's ignominious defeat in the Spanish-American War, and Fidel was well-known from a young age for his passionately nationalistic views.

In fact, American sources speaking on background have told Tough Call that Castro's visceral hatred for the US would prevent a political accommodation even if he were not a communist and the embargo was withdrawn tomorrow.

So what will happen when - in the very near future - Fidel Castro is no longer the all-powerful dictator of Cuba? It is the question on everyone's lips these days - and since the Bahamas is only a few dozen miles from Cuba at its closest point, it is a particularly pregnant question for us.

According to Felix Masud-Piloto, director of DePaul Univesity's Centre for Latino Research: "When someone has been in power for so long and has played such a central role in everything that has happened in Cuba, as well as its relations with the rest of the world, it's going to leave a big hole. Whether you love him or hate him, Fidel Castro is a giant in international politics -- a dominant political figure of the 20th century."

Some analysts say that Castro's cession of power to his brother Raul in order to undergo abdominal surgery a week or so ago is merely protocol required by the Cuban constitution. And even if he were to die or become incapacitated, there is no sign that the Communist Party will be overthrown.

A few weeks ago, a US presidential commission called for an $80 million programme to bolster non-governmental groups in Cuba and hasten an end to the country's communist system. A "transition co-ordinator" has been appointed in Washington, tasked with accelerating the end of the Stalinist regime that Castro built over the past half-century.

Dr Brent Hardt of the US Embassy in Nassau, told Tough Call that America wanted a free and democratic Cuba reintegrated into the inter-American system: "The imposition of Raul Castro denies the Cuban people their right to freely elect their government. We are ready to help Cuba through a democratic transition and are prepared to rapidly provide substantial humanitarian relief to support a genuine transition."

And already there are credible calls in the US for an end to the embargo and normalization of relations. Some lawmakers want to repeal the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which prevents the United States from lifting sanctions until Cuba holds free elections and releases political prisoners. The law also prohibits recognizing a transitional Cuban government led by Castro's brother and designated successor, Raul.

Most analysts think little will change in the immediate aftermath of Castro's death or incapacitation. His hardline brother, Raul, has a strong base in the military, although he lacks Fidel's charisma. So the most likely short-term outcome, they say, is a military-backed regime that will seek to maintain the status quo.

But few doubt that the communist system will eventually collapse without Castro, despite the support of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez for an ongoing anti-American alliance. Analysts say that cautious market reforms following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 "began to unravel the entire structure so that the frightened government quickly backtracked."

During the Cold War, the Soviets subsidized Castro by supplying cheap oil and buying Cuban sugar at a premium. And the Cuban economy declined by more than a third after the Soviet bloc disintegrated. An important part of the regime's response was to allow foreign investment in the tourism sector for the first time.

In 1989, there were only about 300,000 visitors generating $240 million for the Cuban economy, but by 2005 more than 2.3 million tourists visited the island, choosing from more than 43,000 hotel rooms and spending $2.6 billion. Most of the travelers were from Canada, Britain, Italy, Spain and Mexico.

Although this is roughly half of the Bahamas' total visitor count of 5 million last year, it has to be noted that Cuba is the largest island in the Caribbean, with mountain ranges, fertile plains and valleys, and a 2300-mile coastline with deep harbours, coral islands and miles of beaches. Cuba also offers a proud history and culture blending Spanish and African influences.

Cuba now has 10 international airports served by 100 airlines connecting to 40 cities worldwide. And there are 16 regions throughout the island with possibilities for another 164,000 hotel rooms. If US travel restrictions were lifted, Cuban officials predict total visitors in 2010 could reach 12 million. So the competitive threat that Cuba poses to the rest of the region is enormous. According to the Barbados Free Press weblog, this threat cannot be overstated:

"Thanks to the USA’s embargo and travel ban, Barbados has not had to vie with Cuba for American tourism dollars. With a dramatic resurgence in the Cuban tourism industry, and an increased number of Cuban resorts catering to both the low and high-end tourists from the USA and Europe, can Barbados still be competitive? We already lose significant visitors to Cuba from the Canadian and European markets. Without the American-legislated “head-start” how will we fare?

And, the bloggers added for good measure: "Think about the potential impact of over 100,000 square kilometres of Cuban lands being dumped onto the free market at rock bottom prices in an attempt to jump-start Free Cuba's economy and foreign investment."

Bahamian tourism officials have been thinking about the long-term impact of an opening of Cuba on the US market, although they do not see it as an immediate threat: "We are an English destination and they are a Spanish destination," one official source said, "so that is an advantage for North American tourists.

"Certainly we will have to increase our marketing efforts to differentiate our product, to maintain and grow our US and other country market share. But Cuba and The Bahamas are two different destinations that can effectively compete. We will have to continue our efforts to target new markets like China, India, and Brazil.

"The biggest pluses for our tourism industry and foreign second home owners are proximity to the US, political stability and the fact that most of the coastal lands in southeast Florida are developed. These will remain advantages in the future (evident by the recently approved Ginn, Mayaguana and Baker's Bay developments). Prroximity to the US will also be a plus for Cuba, but I doubt that their promotion of this will adversely impact us in the short term.

"The curiosity factor for visiting Cuba will be huge, but high-end travelers demand a greater level of service than that currently offered by most Cuban properties and businesses. There will be a period of time for Cuba to catch up."

And it is also likely that there will be a power struggle in Cuba that could go on for years. Since the state owns all hotels, management chains can leave with little loss in the event of unrest. And even with an elected government, there will be many problems related to Cuban-Americans seeking to reclaim properties confiscated by the Castro regime.

Perhaps the most immediate risk to the Bahamas from a post-Castro transition is the same as that faced by the United States - the prospect of mass migration.

The average Cuban lives on about $8-$10 a month, surviving on food rations and free health and education services. But Communist Party members live much better than ordinary people and have access to luxury goods and better jobs.

Political discontent in 1980 led to the exodus of more than 100,000 Cubans to Florida during the so-called Mariel Boatlift, overwhelming local authorities and the US Coast Guard. Another wave of emigration came after the collapse of the Soviet bloc, which threw Cuba into an economic tailspin in the early 1990s.

Post-Castro instability in Cuba can be expected to lead to more mass migration, although there is no sign of that yet. Newspaper reports say that the Coast Guard, which routinely patrols the water between Cuba and Florida, has been closely watching for any increase of refugees following Castro's health announcement .

Florida Governor Jeb Bush said recently that the state was reviewing an emergency mass migration plan should instability in Cuba grow. And the Bush Administration says military forces stand ready to avert any mass immigration of Cubans in the event of chaos on the island - another Cuban blockade.

In the worst-case scenario, there could be a civil war, producing 2 or 3 million refugees, experts say. If such an exodus does occur, many Cubans will no doubt end up on Bahamian shores. And the pregnant question is, what will we do about that - rely on the Americans?

Comments

This was an exceptional piece...I honestly hope it has us thinking about some other means to grow our economy...it was a gut punch ...that dose of reality and clear thinking that some of us needed...thank you. Kind of intriguing how everyone all over the Carribbean is in a frenzy over a Cuba sans Fidel...

Say rely on the Americans...ask Fred Mitchell, though hopefully he wont be around to answer. ;)

I am an 18 year old student. I found your article on Cuba rather interesting. We all know umbers don’t lie unless they are miscalculated, so I fell that we should fear the numbers that translates Cuba’s potential as a Caribbean powerhouse in the fields of agriculture and tourism. As a country with a capitalist economy, I feel that we should support Cuba's communist regime to prevent it from realizing its potential thus becoming a threat to the entire Caribbean region, and to keep our position as on of the worlds leading tourist sites. As a Diplomatic country we should also hold to our own political ideals whilst supporting a communist regime for our own financial security. My self being a diplomatic socialist at heart, I feel that there are a few lessons however that we can learn from Cuba, particularly in the fields of health care and education. By establishing political ties with Cuba and supporting its communist regime like the united stats has done on many occasions when maintaining theses types of alliances benefited them, I feel we should do the same.

It starts from the position that cuba is a failure because of its communist system (and therefore it is in our interest to keep it so) and ends by asserting that cuba is superior because of its communist system (i.e. free social services).

The first part of your argument is perfectly valid - whether one agrees or not. The second is a value judgement that does not take account of the pros and cons (i.e. true costs).

Bahamians currently have free public health and education - but I assume you mean that Cubans have better quality services.

So then you have to look at what the trade-offs are - no free speech, no choice of leadership, no freedom of association, no travel, no luxury goods, no this, no that, no the other.

If you are happy with that trade-off, all well and good. At your age (and for many years after) I was a radical socialist, but events over the past half century have shown that the theory is not real. There are always costs. The trick is to find the right balance.

Supporting the Castro regime in our own interest - ah, you should suggest that policy formulation to our foreign minister. He may not have thought of it.

We were sitting around the other day trying to decide how long Raul and communism will last after Fidel is burning in Hell. Tough call, but we don't see an "overnight" wall-coming-down scenario.

Our best guess right now... 9 months until Raul "retires" and the USA and Cuba start talking about transition. Worries? As always, the Cuban mafia comes home from abroad as happened with Russia.

But first... a great digging will commence. Since 1959, fathers have told sons who told their sons about the locations of the secret graves. The GPS project has already identified many for the day the digging starts... and once again, we will see visual evidence of the legacy that always follows failed communism.

It seems as thought the Bahamian Tourism dept is understating the impact when Cuba is once again going to be America's playground.

The silly notion that cuba is a "spanish speaking destination"is absolutely a statement which deny the facts.

Presently British,Canadian and Italians go there in great numbers as was reported in Mr.Smiths' article.The only reason the bahamas came of age was the embargo put on travel to Cuba which forced Americans to find the next closest location.

Make no mistake of what our present administration will do to assist and enable the Cuban people to once again have a demoncratic society. The President and his younger brother have a debt to the Cuban Americans for delivering Florida in past critical elections.

Keep in mind of how many Cuban Americans have prominent positions in both administrations. The president is very loyal to his friends and never turns his back on them. Castro has opened the door for some very interesting involvement in that communist infested country.

On the issue of real estate values in the Bahamas; when cuba opens up you will see a significant drop of value in medium and high end properties in the Bahamas. Also there will be a drop in the 86% of american tourism in the Bahamas.

The Bahamian tourism dept might continue to not see the upcoming problem; but it is there and will dramatically impact the country.