>> Friday, March 21, 2014

Look for sunshine and mild temps today....great stuff. Highs will push well into the 70s for our Saturday around the region just ahead of an incoming cold front, and then it will turn much chillier for Sunday, especially across North Carolina.

We will also have a small chance of a late afternoon shower tomorrow, but then some showers are likely Sunday with those chillier temps.

Monday will be chilly and dry, and then we will see our next system approach Tuesday.

There is still the chance of a little snow with that one in parts of our region, but the trend on recent modeling has been for this system to really strengthen once it exits our region and turn into a huge winter storm for parts of the Northeast. If this is the case, snow amounts around here would be light.

But I remind you that the disturbances responsible for this system have yet to enter the North America observation network, so some changes are likely over the next few days. Stay tuned.

Please see the video for all of the graphics to go along with this discussion:

>> Thursday, March 20, 2014

Spring officially arrives this afternoon at 12:57pm, and we have a much warmer setup ahead over the next few days. Look for lots of sun today and tomorrow with highs well into the 60s... even some low 70s in some spots tomorrow. Highs Saturday will likely exceed 70 in much of the region just ahead of an incoming cold front.

That incoming front will bring the chance of some rain showers as early as later Saturday afternoon. Sunday will be much chillier around the region, and we will likely have some rain showers, especially Sunday morning.

Then we will watch the development of our next storm system. Frankly, the computer models are in very good agreement with the overall scenario. An area of low pressure will develop over northern Florida by later Monday and lift off the Carolina coast Tuesday.

The result would be precip rolling into much of the region by Tuesday morning, and as it currently appears, some of the region would see that precip in the form of snow.

Lots can and likely will change over the next several days (the disturbance aloft that will trigger this system is yet to be sampled by the North America upper air network), but at the moment, model agreement is pretty good.

>> Wednesday, March 19, 2014

>> Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Yesterday was one of those weather days that the weather had some surprises up its sleeve. Precipitation rates ended up being a lot higher than expected from midday into the afternoon, and that caused a couple of things to happen.

First of all, for parts of NC, the heavier rates of precipitation brought down colder air from aloft and resulted in sleet and even some snow in addition to the freezing rain. Secondly, since the precip was heavier and more expansive than anticipated, temperatures did not budge. In fact, the Triad region hovered around 30 through the afternoon, then dropped into the upper 20s last night.

Roads are treacherous in some areas this morning, but temps will slowly climb, and all areas should be at least a little above freezing by this afternoon.

Much warmer weather will arrive for Thursday and Friday, but we are not finished with the cold weather. See the video for more on all of this...

>> Monday, March 17, 2014

Areas generally along and to the north of I-40 will see some light freezing rain and freezing drizzle at times today and tonight as a storm system continues to work through the region. The trend over the last 24 hours in the models has been toward much less precip with the round of precip tonight, meaning overall, this shouldn't be a huge deal.

Having said that, some relatively minor icing will remain a possibility on elevated surface both today and then again tonight, especially north of I-40.

>> Sunday, March 16, 2014

First of all, a rainy Sunday is on tap all around the region. In NC, rain will increase in intensity as we get through the afternoon. Then tonight, colder temps will build in from the north.

Overnight, we will see temps head below freezing in a decent portion of NC north of generally a Charlotte to Raleigh line (maybe a little north of there). The overnight precipitation will likely not be particularly heavy, but I do expect some areas of light freezing rain and freezing drizzle in this portion of NC. This could be enough to cause a glazing on at least some elevated surfaces by daybreak tomorrow.

Then for Monday, much of the day for areas roughly along and north of I-40 could feature intervals of sleet with a corridor of freezing rain remaining a possibility (depending on surface temps) just to the south of the sleet area.

Then we await a second potential wave of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning. The biggest question mark with that one is how much precipitation will actually occur. The latest NAM and RPM (short-range models) are both pretty aggressive with that wave of precipitation while some other models are lighter.

Whatever amount of precip can fall with that Monday night-Tuesday wave will likely be in the form of primarily freezing rain for areas north and west of I-85 and especially north of I-40 (Triad region). How big of a deal this is will depend on the amount of precipitation with that second wave, and that remains uncertain.

So as of this typing (mid-morning Sunday), the bottom line is that more wintry precip is on the way for portions of the region, and there could wind up being enough ice accumulation to cause some power outages, especially for the Triad area up to the VA border.

If the Monday night-Tuesday morning wave of precipitation trends weaker, this will wind up being less significant and vice versa.