Article excerpt

The security situation all across Asia is rife with major
challenges for the United States, from the unprecedented rise of
China to the North Korean nuclear weapons program to Jemaah
Islamiya's Southeast Asian terrorism to the Indo-Pakistani
conventional and nuclear rivalry-to name just a few.

A one-size military or defense policy is certainly not going to
fit all of the defense and security challenges that the United
States faces in Asia over the coming decades. Congress and
Administration policymakers must take this into account as the
United States develops its 21st century force structure and defense/
security policy.

China

There is no doubt that the rise of China will play the greatest
role in defining and shaping the content and texture of the Asian
security environment in the coming decades. In turn, China's
ascendance will have a significant effect on American interests in
Asia. In fact, some analysts see Beijing as being quite ambitious
and believe that China seeks to replace the United States as the
preeminent power in the Pacific-even globally.

Perhaps no development is more disconcerting than China's
military buildup - a defense modernization program that is raising
eyebrows in both Washington and across Asia. By some estimates,
China now has the world's third largest defense budget after the
United States and Russia, ranging from $70-90 billion per year.

Although analysts often disagree about the ranking of the Chinese
defense budget due to a lack of transparency on Chinese security
matters, no one disputes that Beijing has the world's fastest
growing peacetime defense budget. This spring, China announced a 13
percent increase in its defense budget, adding to more than a decade
of double-digit increases in military spending.

In addition to a growing defense budget, Beijing will also
develop a world-class defense industry within the next 10-15 years.
Though it currently buys most of its advanced weaponry from Russia,
including SU-27 fighters, Sovremennyy destroyers, and Kilo-class
diesel submarines, China is making progress on developing its own
cruise missiles, fighters, submarines and naval ships as the Chinese
military industrial complex develops. Further, a decision by the
European Union to lift its current arms embargo against China will
accelerate the modernization of the People's Liberation Army.

There is also a concern about the first-ever military exercises
conducted by China and Russia in Asia last month. Whether this will
develop into a military partnership or alliance is unclear. But
there is also a possibility that Russia will sell additional
advanced weapons systems to China, such as TU- 95 Bear and TU-22
Backfire strategic bombers, which were reportedly featured during
last month's exercises. Sales of these aircraft would significantly
increase Chinese power projection capabilities.

The Taiwan Strait

The immediate American concern is that China will try to use its
new military might to pressure, intimidate or coerce Taiwan, which
Beijing considers a renegade province, to effect unification. In
addition to Beijing's growing conventional military capabilities,
according to a recent Pentagon report, China has as many as 750
ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan to threaten its smaller
democratic neighbor against declaring independence. Of course, many
of these missiles are also capable of striking American forces
stationed in Japan.

Unfortunately, the military balance of power across the Taiwan
Strait has decidedly shifted in Beijing 's favor in recent years.
Taiwan's longstanding qualitative edge in military capability has
dissipated due to Beijing's unprecedented defense buildup as well as
Taiwan's failure to keep pace with China's advances. This growing
military capability gap across the Strait could send the wrong
signal to Beijing, which may lead to misperception and
miscalculation on China's part. …