Poll projects ‘one of the closest elections ever’ in Newfoundland and Labrador

Mainstreet survey says Tories might win popular vote, but Liberals seem set to win enough seats for a majority

ST. JOHN'S, N.L. —

One more poll before election day says the Progressive Conservatives are more popular, but the Liberals will win more seats in the 2019 Newfoundland and Labrador general election.

Mainstreet Research, based in Ottawa, gives the popular vote to the Progressive Conservatives (39.9 per cent) while the Liberals (36 per cent) are within the margin of error of the poll, but still trailing among all voters, including those who are undecided. The New Democratic Party has 6.1 per cent overall support, with the Newfoundland and Labrador Alliance at 3.2 per cent, according to Mainstreet Research.

CEO Quito Maggi also posted seat-by-seat projections for the general election. On that front, he gives the Liberals the overall victory.

“The PCs are leading in the popular vote, but we are finding that their vote is inefficient,” Maggi stated in a news release.

“Because of this, we can see Dwight Ball winning the most seats … even though he looks set to lose the popular vote.”

The poll took 632 answers on May 13 and 14 to reach that verdict, but it shows some potential wins for the Tories that could see Liberal cabinet ministers lose their seats.

Of note, Maggi projects Al Hawkins could lose his seat in Grand Falls-Windsor to PC Chris Tibbs, and Sherry Gambin-Walsh is in a tight race in Placentia-St. Mary’s against PC Hilda Whalen. Graham Letto in Labrador West has the edge, according to Mainstreet, but the projections say it’s close between Letto and NDP challenger Jordan Browne.

Maggi’s projections show a narrow win for Liberal George Murphy over NDP Leader Alison Coffin in St. John’s East-Quidi Vidi, while he says Jim Dinn could be the only NDP MHA after the election in St. John’s Centre.

The projections also give the edge to independent candidates Eddie Joyce in Humber-Bay of Islands and Paul Lane in Mount Pearl-Southlands, though Maggi says the latter race is extremely close.

Maggi also gives the Liberals the edge in Mount Scio, by another close margin.

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.86% at the 95 per cent conﬁdence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.