Will NKorea's Kim pull the trigger? Possible signs to watch

Eric Talmadge, Associated Press

Updated 8:38 am, Monday, August 14, 2017

Mike Pompeo, US Central Intelligence Agency Director, said on Sunday that he believes North Korea will test another missile. He stated, “I am quite confident that (North Korean leader Kim Jong Un) will continue to try to develop his missile program, so it wouldn’t surprise me if there was another missile test. He conducted two in July, so it wouldn’t surprise me if there was another missile test.”

Media: WochIt Media

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare suddenly and fade almost as quickly — but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily.

Events closer to home, including deadly violence at a white nationalist rally in Virginia, could demand more of President Donald Trump's attention in the days ahead and cut into the volume and frequency of his fiery North Korea rhetoric.

But North Korea has yet to back away from its biggest threat: a plan to lob missiles toward U.S. military bases on the island of Guam that Pyongyang says should be ready for leader Kim Jong Un to review anytime now.

Will it all stop there?

Or, despite the extremely high risks, will Kim really give the go order? And, regardless of what Kim does or doesn't do, will the tough-talking Trump feel compelled to take matters into his own hands?

Photo: Christopher Quail, AP

Image 1of/12

Caption

Close

Image 1 of 12

FILE - In this July 21, 2017, file photo provided by the U.S. Air Force, a B1-B Lancer bomber assigned to the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron flies over the 73rd Guam Liberation Day parade, at Andersen Air Force Base in Hagata, Guam. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away almost as quickly, but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily. (Airman 1st Class Christopher Quail/U.S. Air Force via AP, File) less

FILE - In this July 21, 2017, file photo provided by the U.S. Air Force, a B1-B Lancer bomber assigned to the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron flies over the 73rd Guam Liberation Day parade, at Andersen Air ... more

Photo: Christopher Quail, AP

Image 2 of 12

FILE - In this Aug. 15, 2015, file photo, North Korean soldiers stand guard at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in North Korea, on Liberation Day, the anniversary of the end of World War II in 1945 and the Korean Peninsula's liberation from Japanese colonial rule. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away almost as quickly, but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily. less

FILE - In this Aug. 15, 2015, file photo, North Korean soldiers stand guard at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in North Korea, on Liberation Day, the anniversary of the end of World War II in 1945 and the Korean ... more

Photo: Dita Alangkara, AP

Image 3 of 12

FILE - In this Aug. 15, 2015, file photo, participants stand behind a North Korean flag at a rally on Liberation Day, the anniversary of the end of World War II in 1945 and the Korean Peninsula's liberation from Japanese colonial rule, at the border village of Panmunjom at the DMZ in North Korea. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away almost as quickly, but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily. less

FILE - In this Aug. 15, 2015, file photo, participants stand behind a North Korean flag at a rally on Liberation Day, the anniversary of the end of World War II in 1945 and the Korean Peninsula's liberation ... more

Photo: Dita Alangkara, AP

Image 4 of 12

FILE - In this Aug. 24, 2016, file photo, U.S. Army soldiers move during the annual U.S. South Korea Ulchi-Freedom Guardian military exercises in Paju, South Korea, near the border with North Korea. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away almost as quickly, but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily. less

FILE - In this Aug. 24, 2016, file photo, U.S. Army soldiers move during the annual U.S. South Korea Ulchi-Freedom Guardian military exercises in Paju, South Korea, near the border with North Korea. Tensions ... more

Photo: Ahn Young-joon, AP

Image 5 of 12

FILE - In this Aug. 24, 2016, file photo, U.S. Army soldiers move during the annual U.S. South Korea Ulchi-Freedom Guardian military exercises in Paju, South Korea, near the border with North Korea. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away almost as quickly, but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily. less

FILE - In this Aug. 24, 2016, file photo, U.S. Army soldiers move during the annual U.S. South Korea Ulchi-Freedom Guardian military exercises in Paju, South Korea, near the border with North Korea. Tensions ... more

Photo: Ahn Young-joon, AP

Image 6 of 12

FILE - In this Sept. 13, 2016, file photo, a U.S. B-1B bomber flies over Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, South Korea. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away almost as quickly, but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily. less

FILE - In this Sept. 13, 2016, file photo, a U.S. B-1B bomber flies over Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, South Korea. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away ... more

Photo: Lee Jin-man, AP

Image 7 of 12

FILE - In the May 2, 2017 file photo, a TV screen shows images of U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away almost as quickly, but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily. less

FILE - In the May 2, 2017 file photo, a TV screen shows images of U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea. ... more

Photo: Ahn Young-joon, AP

Image 8 of 12

In this Aug. 10, 2017 photo, a man watches a TV screen showing a local news program reporting on North Korea's missiles, at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away almost as quickly, but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily. less

In this Aug. 10, 2017 photo, a man watches a TV screen showing a local news program reporting on North Korea's missiles, at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea. Tensions between the United States ... more

Photo: Ahn Young-joon, AP

Image 9 of 12

FILE - In this Aug. 17, 2010 file photo, South Korean army soldiers hold their weapons during an anti-terror exercise carried out as part of Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise, against possible attacks from North Korea in Seoul, South Korea. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away almost as quickly, but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily. less

FILE - In this Aug. 17, 2010 file photo, South Korean army soldiers hold their weapons during an anti-terror exercise carried out as part of Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise, against possible attacks from North ... more

Photo: Lee Jin-man, AP

Image 10 of 12

FILE - In this June 20, 2017 file photo provided by South Korean Defense Ministry, U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers, top, and second from top, and South Korean fighter jets F-15K fly over the Korean Peninsula, South Korea. Tensions between the United States and North Korea tend to flare up suddenly and then fade away almost as quickly, but the latest escalation won't likely go away quite so easily. (South Korean Defense Ministry via AP, File) less

FILE - In this June 20, 2017 file photo provided by South Korean Defense Ministry, U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers, top, and second from top, and South Korean fighter jets F-15K fly over the Korean Peninsula, South ... more

Photo: AP

Image 11 of 12

FILE - In this Aug. 15, 1990 file photo, some of the 100,000 people who gathered at Kim II Sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea, to celebrate the 45th anniversary of the liberation of Korea from Japanese rule. Pyongyang likes to use big anniversaries to make high-profile statements with military activity or political provocations. It launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile, for example, on July 4, Independence Day in the United States. less

FILE - In this Aug. 15, 1990 file photo, some of the 100,000 people who gathered at Kim II Sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea, to celebrate the 45th anniversary of the liberation of Korea from Japanese rule. ... more

ALSO

Unpredictable as the situation is, some potential flashpoints to watch for:

___

BOMBER FLIGHTS

This could be the biggest trigger.

North Korea says it was compelled to put the Guam plan together because it feels threatened by a squadron of B-1B bombers on the island that the U.S. has increasingly sent to fly in Korean airspace in symbolic shows of force during times of particular tension.

But that may be only a pretense.

North Korea is certainly sensitive to the bombers, which could cause a lot of devastation if a war did start. But it also might just want an excuse to fully test the capabilities of its new Hwasong-12 intermediate-range missiles.

Either way, it's a cagey tactic: If Trump orders the B-1Bs to stay on the ground, Pyongyang can claim victory. If he orders them to fly, North Korea has its excuse to launch. If, of course, that's what it really wants to do — Pyongyang wisely left itself a lot of wiggle room and hasn't committed itself one way or the other.

___

LIBERATION DAY

Aug. 15 is the anniversary of the end of World War II in 1945 and the Korean Peninsula's liberation from Japanese colonial rule.

Pyongyang likes to use big anniversaries to make high-profile statements with military activity or political provocations. It launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile, for example, on July 4 — Independence Day in the United States.

This week's World War II anniversary isn't linked so closely to veneration of North Korea's ruling Kim family, the primary days for demonstrating national power. But it's a national holiday just the same and could be an opportune moment for the North to make some kind of a move.

So far, however, there haven't been any telltale signs of anything brewing in Pyongyang. The day could just be marked with small celebrations and the distribution of free treats — or maybe more rhetoric about the Guam missile plan.

___

WAR GAMES

This is another likely trigger, if Pyongyang is going to actually do anything.

Tens of thousands of U.S. and South Korean troops are expected to kick off the annual Ulchi-Freedom Guardian military exercises on Aug. 21. North Korea sees these exercises and larger ones held every spring as a rehearsal for invasion. Getting Washington to halt them has long been one of Pyongyang's key demands, and it regularly stirs the pot around the time they're held.

North Korea carried out its biggest nuclear test just after last year's UFG drills ended and fired four Scud ER missiles into waters off Japan to coincide with the spring exercises this past March.

This year's UFG exercises are expected to last around 10 days.

___

Eric Talmadge is the AP's Pyongyang bureau chief. Follow him on Twitter at EricTalmadge and Instagram @erictalmadge.