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MESOPOTAMIA NEWS COMMENTARY BY ALIZA MARCUS Aliza Marcus‏ @AlizaMarcus 28m28 minutes ago – Looks like PUK & KDP trying to agree on joint strategic vision on issues like relations with Turkey, Iran etc. will be interesting to see if they can come up with something concrete & stick to it By Rudaw – 21 Jan […]

Erdogan at crossroad in Syria – by AL MONITOR 21 Jan 2019 – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Jan. 23 to try to reset Turkey’s flailing Syria policy. Putin wants the Syrian government to take control of eastern Syria, and eventually the entire country, following the […]

Yes indeed – I heard this from a senior official in #Washington 3 weeks ago… his words were: – “We’ll sanction the hell out of them” (i.e. the #UAE). #Syria

Hassan HassanVerified account @hxhassan

Exclusive — I’m told that Washington was unhappy with the UAE’s move to open its embassy in Damascus. American officials warned Abu Dhabi that any funds going into Syria will be subject to sanctions. As a last-minute backdown, the UAE only sent low-level consular representatives.

I heard that the YPG’s operations in Afrin are way more effective now, the group is operating under a new name, using much more advanced weapons and tactics … it is almost as if someone is helping them, almost!

The Israel Defense Forces hits Iranian targets in southern Syria on Sunday night, claiming the strikes were a response to “dozens” of missiles launched by Iranian forces toward Israel.

“We warn the Syrian Armed Forces against attempting to harm Israeli forces or territory,” the IDF said in a statement, claiming the struck targets belonged to the Quds Force, the elite branch of the Revolutionary Guards. It said Assad regime air defense units were also attacked.

About 10 sites were targeted, including a weapons warehouses at the Damascus International Airport, an Iranian intelligence site, and an Iranian training camp, according to the Israeli military.Assad regime media reported an “intense attack through consecutive waves of guided missiles” but, as on all occasions, declared that air defenses destroyed most of the “hostile targets”. A military official said, “Our air defense systems thwarted … an Israeli air aggression…and prevented it from achieving any of its goals.”

Earlier in the day, missiles fired toward the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights were intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system, the IDF said.“The Iranian attack toward Israel’s territory is yet another clear proof of the intention behind Iran’s attempts at entrenchment in Syria and of the danger they pose to the State of Israel and to regional stability,” the statement pronounced.

The Israeli strikes concluded a confusing Sunday which began with reports of a blast in southern Damascus. Assad regime media initially said technicians had detonated an explosive, but later declared that they brought down seven missiles. Russia asserted that Israel was behind an attack on an airport.

Israel has periodically struck Assad regime, Iranian, and Hezbollah targets throughout Syria’s 94-month conflict. The attacks initially focused on Iranian transfers of weapons and missiles to Hezbollah and on the movement of Iranian and Hezbollah personnel to southwest Syria near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

In the past year, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanding Iranian military withdrawal from Syria, Israel expanded the raids to targets Assad regime bases with Iranian personnel throughout the country.

The attacks were paused after a Russian surveillance plane was downed in September by an Assad regime air defense missile during Israeli strikes on western Syria. However, they resumed in December. Strikes on January 11 targeted the Kisweh base on Damascus, with Iranian personnel, and a warehouse at Damascus International Airport.The IDF’s customary practice had been to refuse comment on all attakcs, but Netanyahu lifted the restriction this month.

Former IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Eisenkot told The New York Times that thousands of targets were struck during his time in the post. Netanyahu said a few days after the January 11 raids: “The accumulation of recent attacks proves that we are determined more than ever to take action against Iran in Syria.”

Published: 20/01/2019 – Overview

On January 16, 2019, ISIS carried out a suicide bombing attack in the northeastern Syrian city of Manbij, apparently targeting an American army patrol which included Kurdish fighters. Nineteen people were killed, four Americans, five Kurds and ten civilians. The attack was carried out during the American-Kurdish withdrawal from the city. In ITIC assessment, behind the attack was ISIS’s desire to show that the American withdrawal from Syria is the result of the attacks and casualties the organization has inflicted on Americans and their Kurdish allies.

The suicide bombing attack was carried out by ISIS although it is under severe pressure. Its enclave east of the Euphrates is shrinking and is about to be destroyed[1] by the Kurdish forces (with coalition support). The attack was ISIS’s response on the ground to Donald Trump’s declaration that the organization had been defeated, proving that ISIS’s campaign was not over and is only beginning.[2] It can be assumed that ISIS operatives and supporters will make an effort to accompany the American withdrawal with attacks on American targets in Syria and Iraq, and with ISIS-inspired attacks carried out by supporters in Western countries.

Background

At around 12:30 in the afternoon on January 16, 2019, a suicide bomber blew himself up in the city of Manbij, northeast of Aleppo (on the western side of the Euphrates). Until recently the city and surrounding area had been controlled by the Kurdish forces (through a local military council under American aegis). Following Trump’s declaration of the defeat of ISIS, American and Kurdish fighters began withdrawing from Manbij. However, the withdrawal has not been completed and the situation on the ground is fluid. Syrian army and Russian military police forces are deployed in the regions around the city in order to restore control of the city to the Syrian regime at the end of the American-Kurdish withdrawal (challenging the Turks, who also aspire to take control of Manbij and its surrounding areas). ISIS has no control over Manbij but ISIS sleeper cells may be operating in and around the city, as they operate in other cities and regions liberated by the Kurds with American and coalition support.

The suicide bombing attack and its significance (initial reports)

Assuming the attack targeted an American patrol (as yet unverified), it was the first suicide bombing attack carried out in Syria against a target affiliated with the United States and the coalition countries. The American media reported that prior to the current attack, since 2014 only two American service members had been killed in action in Syria (CNN, January 17, 2019).

The attack in Manbij was carried out by an ISIS operative who blew himself up with an explosive belt in front of a restaurant (called The Palace of the Princes) on a busy market street in downtown Manbij. The American army reported that ISIS had claimed responsibility for the attack. According to the report, the attack targeted a routine American army patrol (as yet unverified).Nineteen people were killed: four Americans (two of them civilians), five local Kurdish fighters accompanying them (possibly members of the Manbij military council which controls the city) and ten civilians. The number of fatalities may rise because of the critical wounds inflicted by the blast (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, January 16, 2019). The American army is investigating the circumstances of the attack (CNN, January 17, 2019).

Right: The front of The Palace of the Princes restaurant where the suicide bomber blew himself up. Left: Helicopter (apparently American) evacuates the dead and wounded (Drexl Spivey@RisboLesnky Twitter account, January 16, 2019).

Response of the American army

The initial response came from an anonymous senior American figure. He reported that four Americans had been killed in the attack and three wounded (relating only to American casualties) (Reuters, January 16, 2019). No further official information was provided.

On January 17, 2019, CNN, based on statements from American administration officials, reported that the fatalities were two American service members, a Department of Defense contractor and a civilian Department of Defense employee. According to the report the civilian is an intelligence expert who accompanied the American force to collect information (CNN, January 17, 2019).

ISIS’s claim of responsibility

ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack. According the claim, the attack in Manbij targeted a patrol of the international coalition countries, and was carried out near The Palace of the Princes restaurant. A suicide bomber, known as Abu Yassin the Syrian, blew himself up with an explosive belt. ISIS claimed nine “Crusaders” (ISIS nickname for Christians in general and American Christians in particular) were killed in the attack. The claim did not relate to the civilians who were killed (A’maq, al-Sham-Aleppo Province, January 16, 2019).

Influence of the attack on the American withdrawal from Syria and on the situation in Manbij and its surroundings

In ITIC assessment, the suicide bombing attack in Manbij is liable to have an influence on the pace of the withdrawal of the American soldiers from Syria, and on the complex, fluid situation in Manbij and its surroundings. It is possible that a mass-casualty attack will make the withdrawal faster, out of concerns for the security of the forces, or may make it slower, for the same reason.

In ITIC assessment, any decision the Americans make will influence the situation in Manbij and its surroundings. Tensions may rise as the date for the final withdrawal approaches, in view of the Syrian regime’s intention to put Manbij and its surrounding under the control of the Syrian army (with Russian backup). However, that immediately challenges Turkey, which aspires to include Manbij into the “safety zone” it seeks to establish along the Syria-Turkey border (which Turkish President Erdogan recently discussed in a phone conversation with Donald Trump).

“Our air defenses had successfully engaged an Israeli aerial attack targeting the southern region and prevented it from achieving any of its objectives,” a source told Syrian media.

By Anna Ahronheim, Seth J. Frantzman – January 20, 2019 13:21 – Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted a projectile launched from Syria after Damascus accused Jerusalem of carrying out a rare daytime attack on the south of the country on Sunday.
Pictures from Israel’s popular Mount Hermon ski resort, which was full of tourists enjoying the snow-filled hill, showed two trails from Iron Dome missiles while screams from children were heard in a video from the scene.

The president decided to withdraw U.S. forces without consulting allies or understanding the facts on the ground.

By Brett McGurk – THE WASHINGTON POST – Brett McGurk was the special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS. – January 18 at 6:00 AM

On Dec. 17, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo asked for an important call with me and a few other senior State Department officials; I took the call from the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, where I traveled often to help manage America’s fight against the Islamic State. I was there to walk through plans with Iraq’s new government to ensure that our gains in that fight would endure. We’d come a long way from only four years earlier, when the Islamic State was at the gates of Baghdad: Today, according to the United Nations, Iraq is safer than at any time since the U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq began keeping track six years ago.

By Anna Borshchevskaya, opinion contributor — 01/17/19 06:30 PM EST

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill

The Kremlin could barely contain its glee at Trump’s move. Putin praised the decision as “correct,” and Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the U.S. pullout creates good prospects for a “political solution” in Syria.

As Bashar Assad re-consolidates military control over the country with Russian and Iranian military support, international attention has turned to a “political solution” in Syria. With the United States largely vacating its remaining influence, what will Russia’s strategy be?

It pays to consider the Chechnya precedent. It was the Second Chechen War (1999-2009) that launched Putin’s political career, when in September 1999 a series of apartment bombings in several major cities shook Russia. Putin, then prime minister, immediately blamed Chechnya and declared, war which brought him from obscurity into the presidency.

Posted by Scott Lucas | Jan 19, 2019 | EAWORLDVIEW – The Arab League has split over the readmission of Syria’s Assad regime after more than seven years.

At least eight heads of state were originally expected in Lebanon’s capital Beirut, but only the Somali and Mauritanian presidents will join Lebanese President Michel Aoun at the Arab Economic and Social Development Summit.Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil said at a pre-summit meeting on Friday that the Assad regime should return to “our embrace” after its suspension over violent repression of the Syrian uprising.But the Arab League’s Secretary General, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, said on Thursday there was “no Arab agreement over the return of Syria”.

First test for IDF’s Kochavi: 10,000 pro-Iran troops massing to cross into Syria from Iraq

18 Jan 2019 – DEBKA FILES – This would be the largest pro-Iranian military increment into Syria since the Hizballah intervention of 2014 – and Tehran’s rejoinder to Israel’s warnings.The 10,000 troops massed on the Iraqi border belong to the large Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) aka the Hashd Al-Shaabi militia, DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report. They have been ordered to stand there by Iran’s Middle East commander, Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Their commander is one of his deputies, Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi of Iranian descent. This Iraqi force awaits a green light to cross into northern Syria from President Bashar Assad.

It is intended to be Tehran’s response to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s “advice” to Iran to “hurry up and get out of Syria” ahead of the IDF’s action. Soleimani has responded by “hurrying up” to top up Iran’s forces in Syria, before Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi has had three days to settle into his new job as IDF’s Chief of Staff.