Peter Jones, freelance journalist writing on politics, business and public affairs

After the shock of Brexit, and then the thunderbolt of Donald Trump’s victory, is anything predictable in politics?

Probably only that there is more upheaval and more earthquakes to come.

The establishment is being routed and established orders are being tossed aside.

And there is plenty of scope for more of that in 2017.

Both Brexit and Trump have laid down the new rules.

The Brexit vote was not about rational argument, but about emotional appeal.

Those 17.4 million pro-Brexit voters didn’t think they were voting for relative poverty as the evidence said, and still says, would be the consequence; their emotions told them that they and Britain out of the EU would be richer materially and, perhaps more importantly, in the sense of regaining control of destiny. Wrong on both counts, but that’s the new politics.

You could see those same emotions at their rawest in the US presidential election.

Donald Trump rode the same wave of rage at jobs disappearing overseas while immigrants continue to arrive, anger at average wages declining while the rich pay less taxes, fury at a self-satisfied establishment demanding more of the same, and all underlain by people’s fears that the new economic world has no place for them.

This tide of uncertain fearfulness, which seems to be ushering in a period of protectionism which will be bad for trade and the trade-dependent British economy, is still washing around the developed world. In 2017, we will see how far it laps up European ramparts.

Elections are due in the Netherlands (March), France (April/May), and Germany (probably September).

Their outcome will have a lot more to do with shaping the direction of the eventual Brexit negotiations than anything Theresa May and the three Brexiteers (Messrs Johnson, Fox, and Davis) contrive to do.

All three countries have parties which, to varying degrees, are anti-immigrant, Islamophobic, anti-establishment, and anti-EU.

The Dutch insurgency is led by Geert Wilders, whose vitriol makes Donald Trump look like Mary Poppins. And while the Dutch are most unlikely to flock en masse for him, enough could use Holland’s proportional electoral system to put his Freedom Party in a powerful position.

In France, Marine Le Pen, whose National Front wants a Frexit vote, consistently gets between 25-30 per cent in opinion polls, certainly enough to get her to the presidential run-off ballot in France’s two-vote system. As yet, a Jacques Chirac, who saw off her much nastier father when he made it to the second presidential vote in 2002, has still to emerge.

Across the Rhine, the Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany was not much more than a UKIP-style nuisance party until this year when it started racking up double-digit vote shares in state elections, helping to push Angela Merkel’s CDU into third place in her home region of Mecklenberg-Vorpommen.

All these movements have taken great heart from the Brexit vote and from the astonishing march of Trumpery across the Atlantic.

That in turn means that Europe’s political establishment is all the more desperate to rebuff them.

The most obvious way to do that is to make a big noise of telling the Brits that there ain’t no free lunch, not even stale bread and water, outside EU membership.

It may work, as Spain’s Conservative prime minister Mariano Rajoy, unexpectedly and narrowly, saw off mould-breaking parties this year.

But the risk is that the battle to defend the EU so hardens institutional rigidities as to make it fragilely brittle.

Given that the threat of a fresh banking crisis continues to rumble underneath a sickly European economy, this is unstable ground to say the least.

And Britain, should the Supreme Court insist Mrs May must legislate to get the break-up under way, may not escape electoral upheaval either.

I think a snap election, if she struggles to get the Article 50 vote through the Commons and Lords, unlikely if only because it will force her to lay out a negotiating manifesto for all, including the EU types on the other side of the bargaining table, to see.

Still, the horrid lesson of 2016 is that the unlikely can become likely, and even awful game-changing fact.

ECONOMY

Dougie Adams, senior economic adviser to the EY Scottish ITEM Club

The future is always uncertain but, entering into 2017, businesses face the prospect of making decisions with little clarity about how the UK’s relationship with our major trading partner will evolve. So what does this puzzling picture mean for our economy?

The post-referendum economy so far has surprised on the upside as the consumer continues to spend and the substantial depreciation of sterling perks up export orders.

However, next year the ‘nasty side’ of the pound’s slide will show. As higher import prices feed through, a renewed squeeze on the consumer is likely to begin.

A wait-and-see attitude could also result in some investment decisions being put on hold.

Paradoxically given the potential longer-term impact of Brexit on trade, we must look to exports to provide some buoyancy to the economy.

Even on the most optimistic of views, however, 2017 will deliver only very modest growth in the overall economy.

Scotland moves into this environment with patchy growth at a sectoral level, a weak performance in exports to our biggest market south of the border and a labour market that is stuttering in comparison to its UK peer.

That said, the over-dependence on construction faded in 2016 as growth in private sector services made a partial comeback on the back of the consumer and tourists.

Tourism could have an even better year in 2017 and some parts of manufacturing should be able to take advantage of the lower pound.

While we will see pockets of resilience overall it looks like a tough year with output, employment and wages stagnating and living standards under pressure.

The impact on our economic landscape will continue to be felt over the course of the 2017 and beyond as the economy transitions to post-EU life and a clearer view of the longer term opportunities and challenges emerge.

DEALMAKING

Brian Aitken, partner, Nevis Capital

You’ve worked hard and your business is a success.

Just as the dust was settling from the financial crisis and your vision of your future was clear, exciting and within your grasp – along came Brexit - closely followed by Trump.

And now everything, it seems, has been thrown into chaos! You’re left confused and having doubts.

You might be starting to wonder whether to get yourself into shape to weather the storm (again); reduce debt, control costs and focus on core activities.

Or maybe you’re thinking about bringing in an equity partner to support growth, or perhaps now’s the right time to hand over the business to a new owner.

Either way, the question you may be asking yourself now is: How realistic is the chance of being able to do a deal in 2017?

Listen to the news and the one thing you know for certain is that everything is uncertain.

And any dealmaker will tell you that uncertainty is to deals what a flat tyre is to Lewis Hamilton.

GDP is slowing, Sterling has tanked and we have absolutely no idea where Brexit and Trump will take us.

So does that puncture deals in 2017? Absolutely not.

In fact, we could see a significant rise in deal activity next year. Here’s why:

1. There’s trouble ahead…

We were told that Brexit would bring all sorts of turmoil and issues - which haven’t as yet materialised.

But be prepared, they will.

We’re in for a rollercoaster ride as we head towards an EU exit in 2019 and that’s when deal activity will be hit, and possibly hard.

This slow down will be compounded by the usual uncertainty that a General Election will bring in 2020.

With this looming on the horizon, expect a flurry of deal activity in 2017 as directors and owners seek to act before the headwinds become stronger and potentially reach gale force.

2. …but the ‘deals’ environment is in good shape, for now:

Buyers have funding - there are well funded corporates, private equity houses and banks are keen to lend.

Cash is cheap - interest rates have never been lower.

We don’t know how exchange rates will move next year but we do know that overseas buyers recognise that the UK remains a good place to trade.

Trump perhaps brings more uncertainty for international purchasers but they will remain keen to buy whilst they have a currency advantage.

Many listed companies want deals for growth and private equity houses have funds that they need to invest.

The valuation gap is closing - traditionally the biggest barrier to deals has been the price disparity between buyers and sellers.

However, attitudes have changed in light of everything that’s going on.

Sellers now recognise that the most important result is getting a deal done.

They are less prone to pass up a good deal in the hope of holding out for a better price in a few years.

So we’ve got more willing sellers matched to well-funded and willing buyers than we’ve seen in a while.

But where will all these deals come from?

The main driver will be owners looking to exit.

Many will have been thinking about it since the financial crisis nearly 10 years ago and they’re waking up to the fact that 2017 is the year where they still have options.

Whether they sell to trade, an overseas buyer, private equity or their employees.

There’s plenty of appetite, energy and hunger to make deals happen.

This, of course, assumes that Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t puncture all of our tyres by calling another Independence Referendum....!

There is momentum in the deals market.

Acquirors and investors are holding their nerve for now and continuing to close deals.

They recognise that uncertainty and risk are not the same thing and if you’re running a quality company then there will be opportunities.

The status quo isn’t safe – for many it’s more unpredictable and riskier than change.

The time to be fearless and make a move is now.

If you don’t, then doing nothing could mean doing exactly that for a number of years to come.

Tourism in Scotland in 2016 benefited from the macro environmental impacts of: the Brexit vote, continued economic uncertainty and perceived problems related to security in a range of other European destinations.

These impacts show no signs of abating and in the medium term Scottish tourism will continue to see a range of positive impacts from what appears to be an increasingly uncertain economic and political environment.

The UK Referendum vote to leave the European Union on 23 June had significant impacts on the value of sterling against the Euro, US Dollar and other currencies.

This coupled with a wave of uncertainty that swept the country as the Conservative leader resigned and a new PM and cabinet were installed served to catalyse fears about economic security and employment.

At least one consequence was that Scotland became a more appealing destination for both international and domestic visitors.

In the case of European and other international leisure and business visitors this enabled them to experience better value for their currencies in what has traditionally been perceived as a relatively expensive destination with high rates of VAT on tourism products and services.

In the case of domestic visitors; most importantly English and Scots, our country offered a ‘staycation’ option which had already proved its appeal in the previous period of economic recession (dating from mid 2008).

In addition, a range of terrorist attacks across Europe and continued concerns over perceived security issues in North Africa, Tunisia and Turkey increased the appeal of a relatively secure Scotland.

Indeed, for the first time in decades, France has experienced significant reductions in visitation following the atrocities in Paris and Nice.

This downturn creates a huge displacement of holiday demand from this traditional favourite of the UK outbound market.

Furthermore, in some mainland European destinations for outbound UK tourists, concerns over issues ranging from migrant presence to earthquakes, has further served to impact on traditional patterns of demand.

Whilst many of these perspectives may be more emotional rather than factually based the displacement effects remain considerable.

For example, Millennium and Copthorne Hotels reported a strong boost in earnings from international tourists in its UK city hotels in November 2016.

In Scotland; cities, rural areas, highland and island locations have all experienced increased tourism demand. Visitor attractions across the nation have also witnessed increased demand.

Thus the short term impacts of ; Brexit, reduced sterling value and the perceived status of Scotland as a ‘safe’ destination appears to have positively impacted on the sector.

Given the current pace of Brexit negotiations this is a situation unlikely to alter significantly in the short term (12-24 months).

In the medium term, however there are a number of areas of concern.

The rise in prices that Scotland will face as a consequence of the cost of UK imports rising will impact on oil prices and the cost of internal Scottish travel (which remains overwhelmingly car based).

This could reduce the appeal of highland, island and rural destination although there is little doubt that the Road Equivalent Tariff (RET) has helped island tourism in the short term.

Furthermore, as a consequence of fuel price growth air fares will rise making outbound travel more expensive once the advantage of forward hedging of airlines on fuel reserves has been exhausted (around Jan-Feb 2017).

It is the impact of the increased cost of travel on both primary and short break holidays that has to be considered.

While for many UK citizens the primary overseas vacation is likely to continue, it is the second break that becomes more questionable and herein lies the ‘staycation’ potential for Scotland.

The prospect of Brexit also has catalysed the potential reintroduction of visas for access to the other 27 EU countries.

Discussion has already begun in Brussel in respect of introduction of an Electronic Travel Information Authorisation System (ETIAS).

This will impact on both outbound tourism and inbound leisure and business visitation.

Aside from making access more difficult and protracted particularly in respect of inter EU travel, there is also the possibility that the all important EU leisure and business market may well chose to holiday and trade amongst the remaining 27 more easily accessible EU nations.

A further impact being felt in the short to medium term relates to the availability and cost of labour working in the tourism sector.

The free movement of labour Scotland experiences as part of the EU ensures a large supply of migrant workers for a range of sectors ranging from construction to agriculture and food processing to tourism.

The impacts of a potential labour shortage is already being felt as some migrant workers have reacted to a decline in the value of sterling earned in the UK and perceived less welcoming or tolerant living and working environments in parts of the UK.

The outlook for 2017 suggest that short term tourism gains in terms of value for money and continued ease of access will not continue indefinitely.

Continued uncertainty about the Brexit process will only further undermine the value of UK currency.

Thus the short term offers some positives for both leisure and business sectors.

However, price rises in imported goods ranging from food to fuel will increase pressure on costs as will potential labour shortages in the sector.

Reduced access as a consequence of some form of Visa re-introduction will compound the problems of escalating costs; uncertainty in the medium term remains the greatest concern.

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Callum Sinclair, partner and head of technology, Burness Paull

UK-wide (and Scotland is no exception) Brexit has raised many uncertainties – never well received in this typically cautious arena. Possible loss of passporting rights – which facilitate the operation of UK businesses across Europe without the need to establish a separate subsidiary – is the hottest topic.

To establish a new sub in another country is not insurmountable but should this prove necessary businesses will face significant practical, and costly, issues – the need to transfer assets from one entity to another is a complex regulatory process.

The extent to which the business would need to relocate is also a major concern, for employers and staff alike.

How much of a firm’s operation will, and can, remain in Scotland?

The risk of the loss of material financial services resource from Scotland’s economy is something that both the Scottish Government and trade bodies are fighting to minimise.

There are alternatives, but all have their challenges. Switzerland, for example, relies on a number of trade agreements with the EU but subsidiaries are necessary for its banks to gain access to the EU market.

“Equivalence” is an alternative whereby banks can operate in the European single market as long as British and EU regulations are compatible.

Equivalence status can be withdrawn at 30 days notice, however, so is unlikely to give sufficient security to financial institutions.

A “hybrid” arrangement could be achieved requiring the UK having to accept all future EU regulations which affect financial services.

And when will Article 50 be triggered?

The Government’s stated aim is around March 2017.

However, the recent ruling that the Government requires parliamentary approval is likely to delay the process.

The Government is expected to push for a grace period for banks to adopt any new arrangement.

In short the only certainty is continuing uncertainty, which will be destabilising and it could be a number of years before any change is put into effect.

The dissatisfaction of the Scottish Government with the decision to leave the EU is well known as is its desire to do all within its means for Scotland to remain part of the single market.

Ultimately, this may result in a second referendum on Scottish independence.

So how is the Scottish financial sector faring in this daunting environment?

Today, many of Scotland’s innovators are to be found in the financial sector.

With its highly trained workforce and technology focus, there is a feeling of confidence that Scotland will develop a key presence as a financial services technology hub, whether or not subsidiaries are required to gain access the single market.

Technology and modern communications mean that there is no reason why the majority of work cannot still be carried out in Scotland.

The sector has been buoyed by fairly positive Financial Conduct Authority guidance issued during the summer on cloud outsourcing, but practical questions remain over compatibility with core regulatory requirements, particularly around control and access to data. From a commercial perspective we see this as a dynamic and evolving area for 2017.

Application programming interfaces (APIs) are making a significant impact. For financial services, this allows banks to streamline their processes.

In turn, it facilitates what will, in our view, be the biggest topic and challenge of 2017 – Open Banking.

Government and EU initiatives have determined to open up access to data held by banks to stimulate competition and innovation in the sector.

Already we are seeing some exciting ideas from Scottish businesses eager to be at the forefront of these developments.

Fintech disruptors are leading new competition, and major financial institutions will have to adapt to a market which is continually changing if they are to enjoy continued growth.

Our experience is that banks recognise this, but as with all large, regulated institutions, face challenges of agility.

Nevertheless, we are now seeing banks investing increasingly in new technology and beginning to partner more effectively with smaller fintech SMEs.

If Scottish banks can continue to back promising fintech startups and innovate with their internal process, Scotland can realise its ambition to become a centre for fintech enterprise.

Post-Brexit it has never been more difficult for businesses or advisers to predict the course of events or the best path to take.

However, with its emerging tech hubs and highly experienced resource pool, the Scottish financial services sector is well placed to tackle these challenges, continue to create jobs and stimulate the economy into 2017 and beyond.

FOOD AND DRINK

Euan Duncan, partner, MacRoberts

The UK is rocking from the aftershocks in the wake of Brexit and the US Election and the implications of both to the UK economy.

If anything is certain, it is that nothing is certain except that the sun will set and rise again the following day.

The full economic consequences are not known and will change with each passing day.

There are some things that will or are likely to happen.

Existing trade agreements will be swept aside, import tariffs will vary – generally up, access to markets will tighten, skilled workers will become more transient, raw material costs from outside the UK are likely to remain higher than before for the foreseeable future and regulation will become more complex.

Scotland is regarded globally as a land of high quality food and drink and these products carry a premium status that presents a tremendous opportunity for the producers, processors and suppliers of such products.

Scotland’s food and drink industry can take advantage of its “brand” and of the global economic and political turmoil to expand and consolidate a bigger share of the export market.

It is forecast that sales for the industry will be worth £16.5bn by the end of 2017 with exports making up £7.1 billion of these sales. The growth year-on-year has been staggering but there is still a huge global market untapped.

2017 is the 10th anniversary of Scotland Food and Drink, a not-for-profit organisation created to bring together the diverse sub-sectors within the industry to share resources and knowledge.

It gives Scotland an edge ahead of most other countries around the world because it drives Scotland the “brand” and all Scottish food and drink products benefit. It proves that working together helps everyone.

Collaboration

“Collaboration” has been the catchword for 2016 and will remain so for 2017.

The Scotch Whisky Association acts as a trade association for all of its members and demonstrates the importance of collaboration.

Over three per cent growth in Scotch Whisky sales in the first half of 2016 clearly indicates it works.

Working together can and should take many forms whether it’s technological improvement or export sales.

A common vision and a written agreement of the obligations and rights of each party is extremely effective.

Innovation

Innovation is a definite key to success – to stand still is to fall behind. Innovation stretches right through the supply chain “from field to fork”.

From advances in growth techniques to improved production processes to innovative packaging to brand and new product development.

Scotland is a centre of excellence for Agri-tech – the means by which the world will feed itself as it resources remain static and its population grows covering everything from new seed varieties to processing machinery to new product flavours.

It may not be the food and drink products that ultimately generate the greatest revenues but the processes that can be licensed to the world.

Capturing, protecting and commercialising such innovation globally can see Scotland’s food and drink industry become a world leader.

People

The food and drink industry in Scotland needs a foreign workforce – it currently makes up more than 40 per cent of workers in food and drink production and the service industry.

This is even higher in certain food sectors like meat processing.

These workers need to know how much they are valued. Crops are not sown or harvested, foodstuffs not processed and goods are not packaged and sold without a strong skilled workforce.

Scotland needs to retain and attract more of those that it needs to continue to increase its production, drive its innovation and market its larder at home and abroad.

Support

Finally we need the continued assistance and support from the Scottish Government through ministerial visits abroad, supporting export initiatives via SDI and UKTI, funding innovation in Scotland to be kept in Scotland, encouraging increased collaboration with our academic institutions, reducing red tape to encourage innovation, export and growth.

The challenges, both political and economic, are there and always will be – in some form or another.

The key is to focus on specific areas for 2017 to ensure the continued growth and success of Scotland’s food and drink industry.

In short, the sector needs to engage with representative trade associations, collaborate, innovate, keep and grow our workforce and ensure support is sought and provided.

SMEs

Sandy Manson, chief executive, Johnston Carmichael

If there’s one thing we can all agree on for 2016, it’s that it has certainly been eventful!

In the last year there has been a general election, a US presidential election, Britain voted to leave the EU and we’ve had a change of Prime Minister.

Now, with another Scottish independence referendum potentially on the horizon, uncertainty is becoming the norm.

But if all this change seems a challenge, let me say I take a great sense of optimism from the remarkable resilience consistently displayed by SMEs in Scotland, and I see no evidence that their dogged determination to succeed is on the wane.

SMEs are still growing, hiring and investing for the future, with some firms increasing their presence locally, across the UK and beyond.

And in 2017, I believe Scottish SMEs will continue to do more than weather the storm if they have a strategic plan in place and they continue to invest in developing their businesses.

Scotland’s entrepreneurial spirit will continue at pace, especially as far as innovation is concerned. R&D tax credits, spin-outs from university and other research create a rich environment for pioneering new businesses.

Innovation and entrepreneurship go hand in hand, and they are synonymous with Scotland’s identity and business culture.

Cost and availability of capital is likely to remain attractive in the year ahead and this is important for SMEs as they continue to access new markets.

We will see further ‘digital disruption’ as firms are required to ensure their technologies and processes are fit for the future, challenging traditional ways of doing business. Technology will therefore remain a major area of investment in the year ahead.

But, while the pace of this change may be disconcerting for some, embracing the digital era will create enormous opportunities for others.

Faster internet speeds, intelligent data, and vast, more secure storage capacities are driving more businesses to adopt cloud solutions which can help them improve business agility, and help those with relatively small IT budgets to move into new territory or to alter their business models.

SMEs will also need to be aware of the transformation of the tax system on the horizon as HMRC move forward with their plans to “Make Tax Digital” – the most fundamental change to income and tax reporting in a generation, which will impact all businesses.

If HMRC sticks to its timetable, things will move swiftly, so businesses must stay informed and have a clear understanding of what the changes mean for them.

Political uncertainty on a number of fronts will continue to provide some headwinds and the volatility of currencies in today’s fast moving world will remain a feature for business, but there are always trading opportunities in any environment.

Following Brexit, a weak pound has seen a rise in the cost of importing raw materials; however, for exporters it has provided a great opportunity.

I would also expect to see Scotland’s tourism sector perform well in the year ahead, driven not just by the weaker pound but also due to the ever-wider range of quality visitor experiences available throughout the country.

A combination of recent low commodity prices and uncertainty in the support regime following Brexit will result in Scotland’s farming industry experiencing a period of change, and I would expect to see an increase in the volume of farmland coming onto the market with the prospect of units consolidating to achieve economies of scale.

The food and drink sector will continue to innovate right across a number of categories and I remain optimistic that, in the year ahead, our food processors may see the multiples placing greater emphasis on quality as a market differentiator and being prepared to pay a premium for that quality.

Despite the political and economic headwinds, Scotland’s SME sector remains a hive of entrepreneurial spirit and, while each economic cycle brings with it new challenges for many businesses, I have no doubt that our countless talented and resourceful companies will continue to adapt and thrive.

TALENT

Nicki Denholm, chief executive, Denholm

Looking ahead to 2017, Scotland’s companies - whether start-ups, SMEs or larger corporates - are going to have to look outside our borders to find the talent to help fuel their growth.

We know through industry research and speaking to our own clients that finding and retaining the right people remains high up on the agenda across the nation’s boardrooms.

People provide a competitive advantage and competition is also prevalent when companies tussle for the best talent - what is commonly referred to as the ‘war for talent’.

In Scotland, we regularly see a bank go up against a start-up or tech company for the same people.

Within Scotland and, indeed, across the UK, cities will also fight it out over individuals with specific skills against other cities, regions or even countries.

There is a well-documented shortage of highly skilled candidates across almost every sector of industry and market research tells us that while most organisations are sophisticated when marketing to their customers, they are not always so good at marketing to potential employees.

So there is something of a double-whammy going on - we have a skills shortage on one hand and companies are finding it difficult to reach the right people.

This has resulted in a lot of discussion around a decades-old term that is making a big comeback - ‘employer branding’.

Employer branding was first defined over 20 years ago and, at its inception, was viewed as an organisation’s reputation as an employer as distinct to what was recognised as ‘corporate branding’ at that time.

The lines have been blurred since, in no small part by the rise of social media which enables employees to say what they think about the company they work for in a much more public forum and, in turn, inform external audiences and potential candidates.

A quick scan of LinkedIn while writing this piece throws up numerous examples of posts that characterise employer branding.

A still trending LinkedIn post which has become a bit of a classic is the image of the desk of a new employee on day one of his or her new job with a neatly arranged collection of devices, stationery and, quite often, a sweatshirt or ‘hoodie” with the company name emblazoned across the front.

On the flip side, one disgruntled employee can post a negative comment about their employer or former employer on Twitter that can catch fire and potentially reach a global audience.

The search and recruitment sector has changed massively since I founded Denholm in 2002. Web and online tools are now part of the furniture when it comes to talent attraction.

Along these lines, we have built our own talent attraction tool to help clients showcase their employer brand in the battle to hire today’s star talent and to help organisations build a bank of candidates already warmed up to them as an employer, reducing both the cost and speed of the future hiring process.

What the pool of potential candidates outside Scotland is telling us is that we need to do better at both informing and selling our nation and cities as job destinations against other countries and cities to young, talented workers not only from overseas but around the rest of the UK.

We need to convince people that they can relocate to Scotland, choosing here over London, Manchester or even Amsterdam or Barcelona, and will arrive in a place with a well-developed corporate ecosystem and a lifestyle to match what they are looking for at work and play.

Conversations with CEOs in Q4 of 2016 indicate our top companies are factoring this in as they plan for the hiring game next year.

WORKPLACE

Linda Urquhart, chair of Morton Fraser and co-chair of the Fair Work Convention

Have you done the test on the BBC website to find out the likelihood of a robot doing your job in the next twenty years? If not, it’s worth a look .

There’s much debate about how what’s known as the fourth industrial revolution will impact on jobs and society.

In previous revolutions we have seen large swathes of jobs swept aside by automation, leaving some communities virtually jobless zones because of their dependence on newly obsolete industries or technologies.

The scale of change is likely to be even more dramatic this time around, although, as ever, such change brings with it new opportunities.

Recent research by Deloitte found that whilst technology has potentially contributed to the loss of around 800,000 lower skilled jobs, equally, there is strong evidence that it has helped created nearly 3.5 million new higher skilled ones in their place.

Each of these new jobs pays, on average, £10,000 more than the job it replaced.

Every nation and region of the UK was found to have benefitted from these new jobs and it is estimated that they have added £140bn to the UK economy in new wages.

We are already in this revolution and 2017 is only likely to see an acceleration of pace of the advance of technology and its impact on jobs.

As there are few jobs which will remain untouched, how do we adapt, both as employers and employees?

One of the big challenges is the ‘hollowing out’ of the labour market.

Although more higher skilled jobs are being created and we will always need some of our lower skilled jobs, with fewer middle management roles available, it is already more difficult for people to move from lower skilled jobs to higher skilled jobs as some of the previous steps on the career ladder are now no longer there in this ‘hour glass’ economy.

Combining skills development and workplace innovation are key to addressing these challenges.

All businesses should be considering how technology is impacting on their industry, how it will impact in the future and what skills it will need to survive and thrive in that environment.

We are very focused on skills development in our younger workforce and in providing a pipeline from education into the workplace, but, increasingly, we need to turn equal amounts of attention to those already in the workplace, particularly because of the demographics of a shrinking working population.

We need to ensure that we are investing in our people to help them adapt their skills and navigate their way on a more tricky career ladder.

With technology doing more of the work, we need to develop different skills.

According to Professor David Denning of Harvard University, we will need softer skills like sharing and negotiating and he talks about the modern workplace, where people move between different roles and projects, closely resembling pre-school classrooms, where we learn social skills such as empathy and cooperation.

We talk grandly and often about innovation, but less often about workplace innovation, not the development of new technologies, but the development of new working practices, job design, ways to ensure jobs are fulfilling and people are engaged at all levels of organisations in helping shape the workplace for the better and fit for the future.

It’s worth taking a look at the work which is being done at Strathclyde University on the subject, in a collaborative project, called ‘ Innovating Works ’.

The kind of innovation showcased by their work will help any organisation respond more positively to the changing environment.

For individuals, there is a need to continually reinvent ourselves, take every opportunity of developing new skills and be willing to participate in discussions about the future of our workplace in an open minded way.

Some technology advances should free up more time for us to do the things we truly enjoy in our work, where the human element is unlikely to be successfully replicated, for example in the caring services.

For policy makers, there is a grand challenge to support those less able to support themselves, whether that’s businesses who don’t have the capacity to embrace new technology and risk becoming increasingly uncompetitive or individuals for whom learning new skills is more difficult.

TECHNOLOGY

Lindsay Gardiner, regional chairman of PwC in Scotland

For many 2016 was a year of change and in many ways that was down to one reason, more than anything else – technology.

That is only set to increase in 2017 but businesses need not fear this as it’s an incredible opportunity for many.

Technology has, of course, been with us for a considerable time but this was the year, in my opinion, senior business leaders and the professional services world sat up and realised technology, its implications and uses could no longer be something just for one department, team or person to deal with: it’s now in every part of a company.

But it’s not just the technology alone, it’s the disruption and change that comes with it.

We saw companies using technology to reach out and use new funding methods – crowdfunding instead of the more traditional finance routes; there were companies scaling back on office space as they could let more staff work from home and fortunes were saved by using Hangouts, FaceTime and Skype instead of travelling for meetings; the use of bots and algorithms replaced people.

All of these are things that proved technology is no longer about the actual technology but people and how they are impacted by the solutions technology provides.

One of the key things that drove this home was cyber security.

Once this was seen as the realm of the CIO or a lone person in a company, we’re now rightfully seeing it not only as a board-level issue but as something every member of a company needs to consider.

One hack – just one out of the thousands a company may face – is all that is needed for company data, IP or customer information to be stolen, a website to be defaced or the digital side of your business, including your email, to be shut down.

That breach can come from anywhere and this is the year companies stepped up to ensuring they could better monitor for attacks, that staff policies were tightened up and that there was an overall improvement in efforts aimed at preventing any cyber damage.

That’s not to say businesses can be relaxed over this issue as it’s a constantly developing field.

The related issue that pushed cyber security to the top of the agenda for many in the recent months –and will continue to do so over the coming years - is GDPR, the General Data Protection Regulation, which comes into force on 25 May 2018.

Regardless of how you feel about Brexit, the UK will already be bound by the terms of the GDPR by the time the UK exits the EU.

This means that the ICO, UK Courts and all affected entities will have already have put in place the requisite infrastructures to comply with the GDPR so it’s something companies need to deal with.

GDPR carries fines of up to four per cent of total worldwide annual turnover for non-compliance, is one of the most operationally challenging pieces of legislation many sectors have faced, which is why many firms are already developing GDPR programmes ahead of its introduction in 2018.

However PwC assessments show many have been struggling to define their vision for GDPR compliance or to establish well supported and mature programmes, so this topic will pop up a lot more in 2017.

GDPR and cyber security aren’t the only technology issues that will continue to dominate throughout 2017 though.

We will see ongoing developments in the world of FinTech and no doubt considerably more discussion around Blockchain and how this integrates with businesses.

Most people know of Blockchain through Bitcoins but we’ve started to see greater uses of it than that with applications around not only proof of identity but also in the area of provenance.

Many sceptics still believe Blockchain is a solution to a problem or question we haven’t asked yet.

I think that as with many technologies – no one expected SMS and text messaging to be so popular on mobiles – it’s only as we explore this potential of this technology that we’ll find new and unexpected ways of using it.

Not only will we see new solutions, we’ll see new ways of doing things and that again will spur on our next generation of development and improvement.

That doesn’t mean all is wonderful around technology.

It’s an area where Scotland needs to do more to not only fill skill gaps in a number of areas, we need to work much, much harder to ensure there is more diversity in the field.

While the efforts of the likes of Scottish Women in IT, Girl Geeks, Digital Leaders in Scotland, the Digital Technology Skills Group and others show things are changing things, it should not be left purely to them to push for greater diversity in the IT world north of the border.

There is still a huge disconnect from the school level up over the number of females being attracted to IT and STEM careers and this has to change.

But it’s not just about sexual diversity.

So far, the cyber security and FinTech hub for Scotland seems to be based around Edinburgh.

Given Glasgow’s desire to be a technology powerhouse, Dundee’s reputation for all things digital and the scale of the oil sector in Aberdeen, will we see these cities grow their efforts for their own reasons or will these new industries find themselves circling around Edinburgh’s traditional financial services?

For those not enamoured with what seems like a faster rate of change and developments, there are no longer any hiding places but that doesn’t mean there are expectations for all CEOs to become expert coders or understand distributed digital ledgers.

Yes, there are expectations to have a basic understanding of the principles behind a lot of the material – and an understanding of their business impact – but more so than ever it’s about having a varied and experienced team, not just at the C-suite level but in the levels below.

And in that sense, while the technology is new, the thinking isn’t because the best companies have always ensured they were about the right people throughout all levels of a company.

The more things change…

RETAIL

Leigh Sparks, Professor of Retail Studies and head of the Stirling Graduate School, University of Stirling

June 23/24th was a momentous occasion, the ramifications of which will reverberate for many years to come, in all sorts of directions.

The fact it was unexpected (and now it seems unplanned for) makes Brexit and its fall out all the more difficult to decipher and forecast.

The retail sector was not in great shape in Scotland even before the vote. The long-term recession, the slow recovery of consumer confidence and the likelihood of further bouts of austerity all cast a pall over the sector.

This was made worse for retailers by a seeming never ending upwards pressure on costs, including rates, rents, minimum wage, apprenticeship levy and so on.

The continuing impact of structural change in the form of online shopping continued to have impacts on consumer behaviours and on the amount and type of retail space needed.

Scotland has too many shops of the wrong sizes and shapes and in poor locations.

There were some bright spots and towns and companies where retailing was on the up, but overall 2016 was problematic.

And then Brexit – or more accurately a 52 per cent vote in favour of Brexit, but a ‘no’ in Scotland.

But, of course, as yet, we are in the “phony war” stage; Brexit has not happened and we do not know its ultimate form or function and thus its implications.

So what does it – and 2017 – hold in store for retailers?

The most immediate effect has been on the pound.

A 20 per cent devaluation (a resigning matter in previous circumstances) has begun to see import prices and production costs rise.

Almost daily now there is news of proposed price rises.

Retailers will across the board be hit by rising product prices and business costs (e.g. in petrol) and this is not going to play well with consumers.

Retailers and manufacturers can attempt to absorb some of this (via efficiency, labour reductions, smaller margins or even product adjustment) but inevitably much will be put on to consumers.

At a time of still weak consumer confidence, inflation and rising prices spell retail and sales problems.

Some retail sectors may do better, as they are less dependent on imported products or can find local suppliers.

Some retail places will surely be able to benefit from a surging tourist demand, attracted by our now cheap prices.

There is evidence of this tourism impact in some of our major cities and tourist spots.

There are sales and growth to be gained here where retailing can capture the imagination and trade of the visitor, international or otherwise.

The longer term is of course very unsure at this point.

The pound could rally and regain its position, and this might flow into alleviation of predicted inflation and price readjustment.

The economy might not shrink in the way forecasters predict.

The Brexit negotiations might produce a sensible outcome on access to markets and labour and on agreed processes.

If they do not, who knows where retail ends up.

Stupid political decisions could make our current price worries seem minor, if tariffs, labour restrictions, removal of access, cabotage restrictions and so on are allowed to fuel the costs base.

2017 is going to be tough for retail, and the bad news is unlikely be over yet.

Whilst there are always winners and losers, the sector as a whole is going to need all the luck and help it can get.