No longer can Iran and Saudi Arabia blame the U.S. and Israel to cover up the competition and polarization that their theo-political expansionism continues to fuel in the Middle East.

A century has passed since World War I started, and the Middle East finds itself on the brink of a new era. Recently, Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq, stated that the time had come for the Kurds to seek self-determination, while the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) declared caliphate over the territories it controls. As the land border between Syria and Iraq has practically vanished, the developments pushed Iraq toward disintegration. Against the backdrop of these changes, The New York Times published a new map of the Middle East, prophecizing that 14 new countries will emerge out of five existing territories. Meanwhile, a number of regional analysts describe the events as the downfall of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, which was signed in 1916.

At the time, imperialist powers had negotiated the birth of new nations with perfectly linear borders in the former territories of the Ottoman Empire, to which many referred as the "sick man of Europe." The post-Ottoman order, to be sure, failed to bring peace, prosperity and stability to the region as the clash between secularist-nationalist groups and Islamist agendas came to an abrupt end with the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Arab Spring revolutions of 2011. With the Syrian revolts evolving into a bloody civil war, chaos spread across the Middle East, and the Nouri al-Maliki government's reliance on sectarian policies and subsequent failure to rebuild Iraq threw the country into the fire. The victims of this new wave of disorder, without a doubt, are the peoples of the Middle East. But who will form the new order?

Unlike in the World War I years, regional powers could not possibly absolve themselves of the responsibility for failing to form a new order in the Middle East by pointing their fingers at global powers. This time, countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey must shoulder the burden of restoring order in the region. No longer can Iran and Saudi Arabia blame the U.S. and Israel to cover up the competition and polarization that their theo-political expansionism continues to fuel. Islamist groups, in turn, that claim to provide Muslim societies with a novel vision have either been removed from power, as in the case of Egypt, through military coup or ended up obsessing over violence in the name of jihad. Damaged by the legacy of nation-states, a great many slide toward an indefinite transition period rather than awakening and resurrection. We thus witness yet another wave of disintegration led by Muslim actors themselves.

The chaos, which reflects clashing national interests and sectarian clashes, shreds nation-states to pieces – as if to usher in a new period of emirates through non-state actors such as jihadist organizations and local tribes as well as proxy wars. The demise of secular nationalism gives rise to sectarian conflict and aggravates divisions between Sunni, Shi'a and Salafist communities. The execution of 1,700 Shiites by ISIS militants merely due to their sectarian identity, for instance, leaves Muslims irreparably damaged. And for the first time ever, differences over religious interpretation generate large-scale hostilities with prolonged effects. Radicals claiming to re-establish the caliphate spread the virus of excommunication (takfeer) to new hosts, as the voices of scholars calling for inter-sectarian unity against imperialist plans just a century ago are no longer audible.

Muslim countries engaging in a cutthroat fight with one another rather than promoting regional cooperation fuels the chaos. Let us hope that this new disorder won't turn into a black hole wherein the self-confidence and commitment to coexistence of Muslims disappear. Unlike in the aftermath of World War I, none but the Middle East's own children are to blame for the turmoil that the region experiences today.

191 comments:

"Islamist groups, in turn, that claim to provide Muslim societies with a novel vision have either been removed from power, as in the case of Egypt, through military coup or ended up obsessing over violence in the name of jihad."

You are an idiot, Bob.Why don't you just Google the fellow's name and find out?Why depend on people smarter than you to do it?Dr Duran is certainly more expert on the subject than you or anyone at the American Stinker

Dr. Duran has taught at the Department of International Relations at Sakarya University. He was a visiting scholar at Center for Global Islamic Studies at George Mason University (2010-2011). He is currently the chair of the Department of International Relations at İstanbul Şehir University. His research interests include Islamism, Turkish political life, the history of Turkish-Islamic political thought and Turkish foreign policy. He has taught courses on Islamism, Turkish Political Life, History of Turkish-Islamic Thought, Political Science, Turkish Foreign Policy and Globalization. He has edited several books on Turkish politics

The first images of the battle for Tikrit have been released by the Iraqi Defence Ministry.

In the hands of Islamist militants ISIL since early June, the Iraqi forces launched a major offensive to retake the town on Saturday.

Iraqi pilots flew 25 Russian fighter jets for the first time, according to state television, and another batch arrived to help fight the insurgency.

Having declared an Islamic State, the leader of the Al Qaeda offshoot called on all Muslims to travel to Iraq and Syria to join their efforts to build up the self-declared caliphate.

Hopes to form a new government quickly were dashed as Sunnis and Kurds walked out of the first parliamentary session on Tuesday as Shi’ites failed to name a replacement for prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, making the job of holding the fragmented country together even harder.

New Delhi: The 46 Indian nurses stranded in Iraq's Tikrit town that has been overrun by ISIS militants have been told to board a bus by unknown men and proceed to Mosul, Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy confirmed to a news agency the development. The Indian embassy in Baghdad has advised the nurses to “try and hold on till (Thursday) morning”.

The nurses have not left, an official source told a news agency.

The nurses had on Tuesday refused to board two buses brought by “some English-speaking men” to the hospital compound in Tikrit where they have been stranded for more than two weeks. But on Wednesday they were being forced to board the buses and were told they would be taken to Mosul, which is another stronghold of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, who arrived in New Delhi on Wednesday night, said he would be meeting External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj over the matter.

Asked about the nurses being told to travel by bus, the Chief Minister told a news agency: “Yes, I am told the people are going by bus.”

“I’m contacting the Union Foreign Minister, the Indian embassy in Iraq,” the Chief Minister added.

According to a source, the nurses are very worried.

One of the nurses told a news agency that they contacted the Indian embassy officials in Baghdad and were “advised to try and hold on till tomorrow morning”.

The men who asked them to leave have given the nurses “two hours” to decide and warned that the hospital is going to be bombed, a source told a news agency.

The nurses are frightened with the sound of explosions going off around the hospital. The Iraqi Army is locked in a fierce battle with the ISIS militants to retake the city. “Bombs are exploding around the hospital all the time,” one of them said.

On Tuesday, the nurses had refused to board the buses after being told by the Indian embassy officials to stay put. They remained in the hospital in Tikrit.

Chandy arrived in New Delhi late Wednesday night to discuss how to help the nurses.

After reports emerged claiming Indian nurses in Tikrit were being asked to leave for Mosul with ISIL militants, international humanitarian organisation Red Crescent told CNN-IBN that there was no threat to the nurses stranded in a hospital in Tikrit.

BriefIraqi Media reported that the Iraqi security forces continued their advance towards the center of the city of Tikrit after they ripped the road that links the city with Samarra province from improvised explosive devices.

Iraqi Media reported that the Iraqi security forces continued their advance towards the center of the city of Tikrit after they ripped the road that links the city with Samarra province from improvised explosive devices.

“The security forces boosted with military aircrafts continue to advance toward the center of the city of Tikrit (10 km away from the center of the city) after they clashed with the so-called ISIL terrorists,” it said, noting that the army jets carried out accurate airstrikes against ISIL posts.

Security forces were also able to clean the Tikrit-Samarra road from roadside bombs planted by the ISIL organization terrorists.

In the hands of ISIL since early June, the Iraqi forces launched a major offensive to retake the town on Saturday.

The first images of the battle for Tikrit have been released by the Iraqi Defense Ministry.

Iraqi pilots flew 25 Russian fighter jets for the first time, according to state television, and another batch arrived to help fight the insurgency.

A Jordanian militant ideologist and al-Qaeda cleric has denounced the declaration of a "caliphate" by Sunni militants in Iraq and Syria, warning against more bloodshed.

"Can every Muslim and weak person find refuge in this caliphate? Or would it be like a sharp sword against all opponents?" Issam Barqawi, known as Abu Mohammed al-Maqdissi, wrote on Facebook and on militant websites on Wednesday.

On Sunday, militants previously known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), declared a "caliphate", a form of government last seen under the Ottoman Empire, straddling parts of Iraq and Syria.

The militants, who renaming themselves the Islamic State (IS), already control large swathes of territory in north and east Syria, and this month captured vast stretches of northern and western Iraq.

”What would the fate be of other Islamist fighters in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere?” asked Maqdissi, who was freed on June 16 after serving a jail sentence for recruiting fighters for the Taliban.

Once mentor to Iraq's now slain al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, before the two fell out over ideological differences, Maqdissi warned against "Muslims who kill other Muslims".

“Do not think you can silence the voice of justice by shouting, making threats, aggression and having no manners,” he said.

Experts say the declaration of the caliphate is a direct challenge to al-Qaeda and could spark a contest for the leadership of the global extremist group.

Jordan's militant movement is generally dominated by anti-IS groups that support al-Qaeda and its Syrian ally, al-Nusra Front.

The offensive in Iraq has also sparked fears in Amman that the Sunni militants will try to take their fight to the kingdom.

Jordan is already suffering from hosting more than 600,000 Syrian refugees, and has long faced the challenge of dealing with its own extremists, many of whom have joined militants or al-Qaeda-linked groups in neighboring Iraq and Syria.

On Monday, King Abdullah II appealed for international support to help Jordan deal with regional turmoil after the caliphate was declared.

... the US President informed Congress Friday, June 22, that 700 combat-equipped American military personnel would remain in Jordan at the end of a joint US-Jordanian training exercise.

They would include crews of two Patriot anti-aircraft missile batteries and the logistics, command and communications personnel needed to support those units. The United States is also leaving behind from the war maneuver a squadron of 12 to 24 F-16 fighter jets at Jordan’s request. Some 300 US troops have been in Jordan since last year.

That would put 1,000 US troops in Jordon, 600 or so in Iraq. These numbers derived from open sourced data sets.

the Jordanian military and special operation forces were able to repel ISIS by entering Iraq and attacking the terrorist group’s forward advance. The Jordanian army can act on its own to protect the state. Over the past week, over one hundred Jordanian special operators were in Iraq and in the Ajoun and Northern Jordan Hills watching ISIS’s forward advancement. Jordanian SOF interrupted ISIS’s advances with pinpoint strikes without the assistance of CENTCOM Forward or the SOCOM base in Zarqa according to a Jordanian official. These operations were carried out by the Jordanian military acting on its own without the King’s approval since their mandate allows them to protect the Hashemite Kingdom at any cost.... Jordan is preparing to launch a counter narrative campaign against ISIS by employing two powerful clerics. Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, also known as Isam Mohammad Taher al-Barqawi, was released from a Jordanian prison two weeks ago. Al-Maqdisi’s teachings and writings helped inspire Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who led al-Qaeda in Iraq during the height of the Iraq war and who pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden in 2004. Al-Zarqawi, of course, was the leader of al-Qaeda Iraq which is now directly linked to the emergence of ISIS and its leader, al-Baghdadi. The other significant cleric is Abu Qatada, whose real name is Omar Othman. Previously in the UK, the British sent him to Jordan to stand trial for terrorism acts in Jordan. But his acquittal is seen as a way to free him to serve the Hashemite Kingdom.

... new developments mean that Jordan is not out of ISIS’ sights yet: Reports are circulating that parts of al-Nusra have declared bayat, or allegiance, to ISIS. This development means that ISIS’ ranks could grow to over 30,000 members. In addition, ISIS appears to be targeting Lebanon in order to create a sectarian battle in the Eastern Mediterranean state. This “gang” seeks to run rampant to destabilize current governments and capture more territory and physical assets plus infrastructure to build their nascent caliphate. Jordan is not out of danger yet but seems to a have a good plan in place.

Dr. Theodore Karasik is the Director of Research and Consultancy at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) in Dubai, UAE. He is also a Lecturer at University of Wollongong Dubai. Dr. Karasik received his Ph.D in History from the University of California Los Angles.

Allen, when you made your "Levitical comment" I took that to mean, simply, that the Mitzot forbidding one to boil a kid in its mother's milk is not found in Leviticus, but in Exodus. I filed that away, and I appreciate the new tone, however, my original comment, a riff on the "gay" Burger King burger, was my usual abbreviated but multi-level snark, intended as a short chuckle and to get different brain cells firing, not really to be picked apart.

As President Obama slowly but surely increases the U.S. military presence on the ground in Iraq, his administration is grappling with the immediate need to stop the ISIS advance and push for a political solution in Baghdad. The three-and-a-half-year grinding civil war is Syria has been put on a back burner for now. Some officials inside the administration are proposing that the drive to remove Assad from power, which Obama announced as U.S. policy in 2012, should be set aside, too. The focus, these officials argue, should instead be on the region’s security and stability. Governments fighting for survival against extremists should be shored up, not undermined.

"Anyone calling for regime change in Syria is frankly blind to the past decade; and the collapse of eastern Syria, and growth of Jihadistan, leading to 30-50 suicide attacks a month in Iraq,” one senior Obama administration official who works on Iraq policy told The Daily Beast.

In effect, the American government has been in a limited partnership with the Assad regime for almost a year. The U.S., Russian, and Syrian governments made a deal last September to destroy Assad’s stockpile of chemical weapons – and relied on Damascus to account for and transport those weapons, in effect legitimizing his claim to continued power.

As far back as last December, top White House officials including Deputy National Security Advisor Tony Blinken, have suggested that the rising threat of extremism was creating a “convergence of interests” between the U.S., Russia, and its allies in the Iranian and the Syrian governments to come to a political deal before the Islamists became too powerful.

"The Russians have a profound interest in avoiding the emergence of an extremist Syria, a haven for extremist groups," Blinken said at the time. "Many of Syria's neighbors have the same incentive, and of course we have a strong reason to want to avoid that future."

Israel’s Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren told the Jerusalem Post that Israel so wanted Assad out and his Iranian backers weakened, that Israel would accept al-Qaeda operatives taking power in Syria.

“We always wanted Bashar Assad to go, we always preferred the bad guys who weren’t backed by Iran to the bad guys who were backed by Iran.”

Even if the other “bad guys” were affiliated with al-Qaeda. “We understand that they are pretty bad guys,” Oren said in the interview.

That Israel prefers al-Qeada is well known, now.The fact that Ambassador Oren trumpeted the fact, shows just how vile the Israeli government is.

That Bibi provides solace to al-Qeada operatives, truly sickening.To think that the US has subsidized the supporters of al-Qeada, would make even GW Bush puke.The Israeli have proven that they stand against the US.

Israel’s Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren told the Jerusalem Post that Israel so wanted Assad out and his Iranian backers weakened, that Israel would accept al-Qaeda operatives taking power in Syria.

“We always wanted Bashar Assad to go, we always preferred the bad guys who weren’t backed by Iran to the bad guys who were backed by Iran.”

Even if the other “bad guys” were affiliated with al-Qaeda. “We understand that they are pretty bad guys,” Oren said in the interview.

The latest killings bring to the forefront Palestinians' deep concern about prisoners and has reopened wounds on both sides.

The kidnapping and killing of three young Israelis – whom Palestinians regard as settlers – and the death of a Palestinian teenager in East Jerusalem have reopened some of the deepest wounds on both sides of the ongoing conflict and are now threatening to engulf Palestine-Israel relations.

It is not hard to see why Palestinian mothers and fathers may have been bemused by the spectacle of world leaders, including US President Barack Obama and UK Prime Minister David Cameron, lining up to condemn the deaths of the three youths, while remaining largely unmoved by the shooting of two unarmed Palestinian youths last month and the reported killings of at least a further six civilians since Israel began searching for the kidnappers on June 12.

The latest death of an East Jerusalem teenager confirms that Israeli vigilantism is on the rise, inspired by a growing and largely unrestrained tide of violence over the past few years. In light of the fury felt on both sides, it is perhaps not hard to see why mutual empathy is not prevalent in interaction between Palestinians and Israelis today.

The Brownshirts of Israel are active and protected - There have been no mass arrests of Israeli Jews in response to the murder of the Palestinian teen, nor to the killings of the Palestinians by the 'Blackshirts' of the IDF.

The charred body of Muhammad Abu Khudair — a 16-year-old from the Palestinian neighborhood of Shuafat in occupied East Jerusalem — was found early this morning shortly after his family reported that he was kidnapped.

Since news broke that his murder was likely a “revenge killing” for the three Israeli teens slain in the West Bank more than two weeks ago, mainstream media outlets are struggling to whitewash the incitement coming from the highest levels of the Israeli government and the race riots that preceded Abu Khudair’s suspected lynching.

Prior to the kidnapping, hundreds of Israelis rioted in Jerusalem, chanting “death to the Arabs” while assaulting Palestinians in what have been labeled “lynch mobs.”

This came on the heels of direct incitement from Israeli government officials and politicians, who have been calling for revenge following the discovery on Monday of the bodies of the three Israeli teens.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed “revenge” on behalf of “the entire Jewish people” against the “human animals” who killed the teens, adding with no evidence that “Hamas is responsible, Hamas will pay.”

On the more extreme end, former Israeli lawmaker Michael Ben-Ari released a video statement imploring Israel to “transfer the pain to the cruel enemy” by transforming “Ramadan into a month of darkness.” These sentiments were echoed by the Israeli public on social media, where calls for genocide against Palestinians are common.

Already, the murder of Abu Khudair is being celebrated, with some Israelis calling for more lynchings.

Burying the story

The New York Times, which had completely ignored this incitement, was forced to acknowledge Israeli race riots in the wake of Abu Khudair’s murder. Still, the Times’ Jerusalem bureau chief Jodi Rudoren and co-author Isabel Kershner made sure to bury the story, waiting until the nineteenth paragraph to mention violent protests.

Offering few details, Rudoren and Kershner write:

As the funerals [of three slain Israeli teens] were underway, hundreds of extreme-right protesters gathered in Jerusalem demanding that the government avenge the deaths. Chanting “Death to Arabs,” they tried to attack Arab passers-by who had to be extricated by the police. More than 40 protesters were arrested.

That’s it.

There’s no mention of the roving gangs of Israeli youth asking dark-skinned people on the streets of Jerusalem for the time to determine, based on their accent, whether they are Arab, or the Israeli mobs storming restaurants like McDonalds looking for Palestinian workers to attack.

The truth of the matter is that it was not Hamas that 'paid', it was an innocent Palestinian, as young man just as innocent as the three Israeli, killed in what may well have been a false flag operation by the Mossad.

There have been no mass arrests of Israeli, in response to the murder of this Palestinian teen. No settlements housing units demolished..No, none at all. The Blackshirts of the IDF are not now patrolling the 'Settlements' searching for the perpetrators of this murder. No, none at all.

We are in the most dangerous era since 911. Religious fanatics willing to die for their cause are the most dangerous people on the planet. There is a genuine security threat to both the Occident and Orient emanating from this sub-strata of religious (often young) Sunni men who are in thrall to Salafi.

Jihadism.al-Baghdadi has clearly set up the most successful jihadi project to date and that is likely to attract more volunteers and defections from the likes of Jebhat al-Nusra. They have a similar ideology anyway and ISIS is looking more successful. I’m told a number of leaders and units, particularly in the Deir al-xor area have already gone over to him. Fear is justified.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko assured Russian President Vladimir Putin that Belarusians would fight shoulder to shoulder with Russians if such a need arose.

“If need be, we will stand back to back to defend ourselves and fight off as we did in the past,” he said at the celebrations marking the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Belarus from the Nazi invaders.He said Putin’s participation in the celebrations was symbolic.

“We appreciate your arrival in these festive days. We lived through hard times but after all hardships the victory was welcome and it was a common victory,” he said.

Deaths of Israeli teens grabbed the headlines. Meanwhile the killing of a Palestinian teen, abducted and slaughtered overnight in East Jerusalem in a suspected revenge attack has gone largely unnoticed. As well as the killing of an 18-year-old Palestinian by Israeli troops in the West Bank.

1,518 Palestinians children have been killed by the Israeli since the year 2000One Palestinian child has been killed every three days for the past thirteen years

Rufus IIThu Jul 03, 08:46:00 AM EDTApril was revised up to 304,000This month will likely be revised up to over 300,000, also

A horrible historic number, but our expectations have been lowered to accept this crappy assed number as decent.

Lower the cost of energy. Decrease government regulations. Oh, and free condoms for all the sluts! (that way Rufus can get his groove on and not have to pay for the special "mini-trojans" that cost so much.

Modern archaeology has nailed them down as just another garden variety Canaanite, sans piggeries, who flourished for a time between the fall of Assyria and the rise of Babylon. Certainly the Egyptian histories ignore them.

In his Against Apion, the 1st-century AD historian Josephus Flavius debates the synchronism between the Biblical account of the Exodus of the Israelites from Egypt, and two Exodus-like events that the Egyptian historian Manetho apparently mentions.

It is difficult to distinguish between what Manetho himself recounted, and how Josephus or Apion interpret him. Josephus identifies the Israelite Exodus with the first exodus mentioned by Manetho, when some 480,000 Hyksos "shepherd kings" (also referred to as just 'shepherds', as 'kings' and as 'captive shepherds' in his discussion of Manetho) left Egypt for Jerusalem.

What is happening is that the Israeli "Yinon Plan" is being implemented by the Obama Administration. Mr Obama, who has always been a bought and paid for agent of US Zionists, removed US troops from Iraq on the Bush Administration schedule, then brought US support to the ISIS in Syria.

The current lack of US support to the Iraqi regime is just another of the dots in the mosaic.

The US had the Turkish government on board until just recently, when the Turks realized that their own self-interests were not being propagated by supporting the radical Islamists that the Israeli and US were promoting in Syria. This realization came with the establishment of the Kurdistan 'Republic' in Iraq, brought on by the ISIS and the "Yinon Plan" implementation, there.

The Saudi and Israeli alliance, with US support is bringing pressure to bear on the Iranians. The Russians, with clear vision, see that the radical Wahhabi Islamoids are rallying in Syria and Iraq and thus are supporting the Iraqi/Iranian/Assad coalition of anti-Wahhabi.

Pretty much as Mr Duran describes, except that he discounts the US/Israeli influences, perhaps out of a desire to boost the standing of the regional Islamic players.

Your heritage is from the Philippines. You are American, you bragged for years of your "homeland" there.... Now you say you are as American as a Native Apache....

This way of thinking is part and parcel with racism, WiO. Suppose a baby girl from the Philippines, was, like, orphaned, then adopted by American parents, and raised here on the Best Coast. By the time she was, like, fourteen, ya know, she'd be hanging out with her girlfriends at Southcenter in front of Forever 21, checking out the fellas and Facebookin' selfies, y'know? And if anyone asked her if she liked the food from her "homeland" she'd be, all, "I ate some of that at Rebecca's house! Lumpia is okay I guess, and pancit bihon totally rocks, but that dried fish reeks fer shure!" Now the only difference between her and me is that I didn't have to go visit Rebecca to get some, my momma cooked that smelly dried fish ALL THE TIME.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/03/iraq-kurdish-president-barzani-proposes-independence-referendumIraq: Kurdish president proposes independence referendumMassoud Barzani asks MPs to form electoral commission to carry out referendum in autonomous region in northern Iraq

One hopes that Mr. Barzani has been prudent and has developed a plan with an ally to provide for his country's air defense. If Kurdistan can force its adversaries to ground, it will prevail. If not, all those wonderful construction projects will be reduced to rubble. Moreover, he must not forget the US betrayal of the Kurds following Gulf I: The names have changed, but the game is the same.

IS has taken the role of the militant Protestantism of the Reformation. Thus, Islam is now in the process of Reformation, albeit, not the one envisioned by Mr. Cole and others. The Thirty Years' War was anything but a docile return to the mythical purity of the early Church. What is happening in the Muslim world, today, is reminiscent of that bloody struggle wherein 1/3-1/2 the Germans were killed before the powers-that-be grasped that a stalemate was the best/only outcome possible. Does this explain why the Russians, for example, have not entered the fray using their best aircraft and crews? Does this explain why the US is moving with glacial momentum when it comes to up-arming the Baghdad government?

Having sensed that this vast land mass is going to be shattered, are Westerners doing the minimum necessary to save face with sundry Muslim constituencies? Is it the hope of the West that, as with Central Europe following Westphalia, the region will be left a hodgepodge of scores, if not hundreds, of impotent, minor polities, no one of which could change the status quo?

What is happening is that the Israeli "Yinon Plan" is being implemented by the Obama Administration. Mr Obama, who has always been a bought and paid for agent of US Zionists, removed US troops from Iraq on the Bush Administration schedule, then brought US support to the ISIS in Syria.

The current lack of US support to the Iraqi regime is just another of the dots in the mosaic.

The US had the Turkish government on board until just recently, when the Turks realized that their own self-interests were not being propagated by supporting the radical Islamists that the Israeli and US were promoting in Syria. This realization came with the establishment of the Kurdistan 'Republic' in Iraq, brought on by the ISIS and the "Yinon Plan" implementation, there.

The Saudi and Israeli alliance, with US support is bringing pressure to bear on the Iranians. The Russians, with clear vision, see that the radical Wahhabi Islamoids are rallying in Syria and Iraq and thus are supporting the Iraqi/Iranian/Assad coalition of anti-Wahhabi.

Pretty much as Mr Duran describes, except that he discounts the US/Israeli influences, perhaps out of a desire to boost the standing of the regional Islamic players.

"Is it the hope of the West that, as with Central Europe following Westphalia, the region will be left a hodgepodge of scores, if not hundreds, of impotent, minor polities, no one of which could change the status quo?"

The Yinon Plan is an Israeli strategic plan to ensure Israeli regional superiority. It insists and stipulates that Israel must reconfigure its geo-political environment through the balkanization of the surrounding Arab states into smaller and weaker states.

Israeli strategists viewed Iraq as their biggest strategic challenge from an Arab state. This is why Iraq was outlined as the centerpiece to the balkanization of the Middle East and the Arab World. In Iraq, on the basis of the concepts of the Yinon Plan, Israeli strategists have called for the division of Iraq into a Kurdish state and two Arab states, one for Shiite Muslims and the other for Sunni Muslims. The first step towards establishing this was a war between Iraq and Iran, which the Yinon Plan discusses.

The Atlantic, in 2008, and the U.S. military’s Armed Forces Journal, in 2006, both published widely circulated maps that closely followed the outline of the Yinon Plan.

Aside from a divided Iraq, which the Biden Plan also calls for, the Yinon Plan calls for a divided Lebanon, Egypt, and Syria. ...Securing the Realm: Redefining the Arab World…

Although tweaked, the Yinon Plan is in motion and coming to life under the “Clean Break.” This is through a policy document written in 1996 by Richard Perle and the Study Group on “A New Israeli Strategy Toward 2000″ for Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel at the time. Perle was a former Pentagon under-secretary for Roland Reagan at the time and later a U.S. military advisor to George W. Bush Jr. and the White House.

Aside from Perle, the rest of the members of the Study Group on “A New Israeli Strategy Toward 2000″ consisted of James Colbert (Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs), Charles Fairbanks Jr. (Johns Hopkins University), Douglas Feith (Feith and Zell Associates), Robert Loewenberg (Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies), Jonathan Torop (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy), David Wurmser (Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies), and Meyrav Wurmser (Johns Hopkins University). A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm is the full name of this 1996 Israel policy paper.

In many regards, the U.S. is executing the objectives outlined in Tel Aviv’s 1996 policy paper to secure the “realm.”

Moreover, the term “realm” implies the strategic mentality ... A realm refers to either the territory ruled by a monarch or the territories that fall under a monarch’s reign, but are not physically under their control and have vassals running them. In this context, the word realm is being used to denote the Middle East as the kingdom of Tel Aviv.

The fact that Perle, someone who has essentially been a career Pentagon official, helped author the Israeli paper also makes one ask if the conceptualized sovereign of the realm is either Israel, the United States, or both?

The 1996 Israeli document calls for “rolling back Syria” sometime around the year 2000 or afterward by pushing the Syrians out of Lebanon and destabilizing the Syrian Arab Republic with the help of Jordan and Turkey.

This has respectively taken place in 2005 and 2011. The 1996 document states: “Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq — an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right — as a means of foiling Syria’s regional ambitions.”

As a first step towards creating an Israeli-dominated “New Middle East” and encircling Syria, the 1996 document calls for removing President Saddam Hussein from power in Baghdad and even alludes to the balkanization of Iraq and forging a strategic regional alliance against Damascus that includes a Sunni Muslim “Central Iraq.”

The authors write: “But Syria enters this conflict with potential weaknesses: Damascus is too preoccupied with dealing with the threatened new regional equation to permit distractions of the Lebanese flank. And Damascus fears that the ‘natural axis’ with Israel on one side, central Iraq and Turkey on the other, and Jordan, in the center would squeeze and detach Syria from the Saudi Peninsula.

For Syria, this could be the prelude to a redrawing of the map of the Middle East which would threaten Syria’s territorial integrity.”

Perle and the Study Group on “A New Israeli Strategy Toward 2000″ also call for driving the Syrians out of Lebanon and destabilizing Syria by using Lebanese opposition figures.

The document states: “[Israel must divert] Syria’s attention by using Lebanese opposition elements to destabilize Syrian control of Lebanon.” This is what would happen in 2005 after the Hariri Assassination that helped launch the so-called “Cedar Revolution” and create the vehemently anti-Syrian March 14 Alliance controlled by the corrupt Said Hariri.

The document also calls for Tel Aviv to “take [the] opportunity to remind the world of the nature of the Syrian regime.”

This clearly falls into the Israeli strategy of demonizing its opponents through using public relations (PR) campaigns. In 2009, Israeli news media openly admitted that Tel Aviv through its embassies and diplomatic missions had launched a global campaign to discredit the Iranian presidential elections before they even took place through a media campaign and organizing protests in front of Iranian embassies.

The document also mentions something that resembles what is currently going on in Syria. It states: “Most important, it is understandable that Israel has an interest supporting diplomatically, militarily and operationally Turkey’s and Jordan’s actions against Syria, such as securing tribal alliances with Arab tribes that cross into Syrian territory and are hostile to the Syrian ruling elite.”

With the 2011 upheaval in Syria, the movement of insurgents and the smuggling of weapons through the Jordanian and Turkish borders has become a major problem for Damascus.

In this context, it is no surprise that Arial Sharon and Israel told Washington to attack Syria, Libya, and Iran after the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq.

Finally, it is worth knowing that the Israeli document also advocated for pre-emptive war to shape Israel’s geo-strategic environment and to carve out the “New Middle East.” This is a policy that the U.S. would also adopt in 2001.

The paper was written for Israel but it is the vision of whack-job neocons in the U.S., Perle just being one of them.

In a rare moment of illumination, Netanyahu shelved the paper and never acted upon it. The neocons had to wait a few years until an utter nincompoop entered the White House as president to see their perverted dream become a reality.

People that whose myths tell them that forty years in the wilderness is not a big deal, if the objective can be achieved.That those that first articulate the vision do not have to be there to see it accomplished.

MILLIONS and MILLIONS of arabs are now homeless, not because of Israel, but because of Arabs.

LOL

There is a list on-line, co-authored by Dr. Daniel Pipes, covering all world conflicts since 1950 in which more than 10,000 people perished. Mao's pet projects top the list at 40,000,000 deaths, as I recall. Israel v Arabs comes in at #49 (35,000 deaths +/-, as I recall).

“In a different perspective, some 11,000,000 Muslims have been violently killed since 1948, of which 35,000, or 0.3 percent, died during the sixty years of fighting Israel, or just 1 out of every 315 Muslim fatalities. In contrast, over 90 percent of the 11 million who perished were killed by fellow Muslims.”

As an aside, the great majority of today's 50,000,000 displaced persons (refugees) stem from Muslim conflicts.

At any rate, Israelis have a poor track record of lethality against Muslims, contrary to conventional wisdom and Mr. Kerry.

It's all Semite on Semite violence, I've long since lost interest in keeping the teams separate.

The IAF is, however, very good at neutralizing SIGINT boats. If the platform doesn't sink right away, they break out the napalm and machine gun the hands on deck. Then the hasbara operation and J Street go into overtime and politicians make it all go away. The same thing happened in 1987 when some other Semitic "allies" of ours (Iraq) fired a couple missiles at the USS Stark.

You're as bad as Doug about babbling about things of which you have no knowledge, whatsoever.

As bad as wio saying 304,000 is Not a strong number, historically.

Get a grip.

OK...

"If we take the labor participation rate at the start of the great recession, 66%, we get a whole other number of jobs needed each month to keep up with population growth. If we keep the same rate of unemployment, 8.1%, we would need 545,551 jobs per month and it would take an entire year to get to the same August rate of unemployment, 8.1%."

You have your spin and he has his. I do not believe either of you are stupid; but that seems something important to you, so rant on. Oh, I have every reason to suspect that his credentials are superior to your own.

As to Old Doug, that was a low blow, Man!

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/how-many-jobs-are-needed-keep-population-growthHow Many Jobs Are Needed to Keep Up with Population Growth?

http://www.ijreview.com/2014/07/153402-25-little-known-world-happenings-give-us-perspective-good-really-americans/18 Things Happening Outside of the U.S. That Give Insight Into How Good We Have It as Americans

"In fact, according to Census Bureau data, in Q1 the number of households formed each month was 189,000, down from 1,563,000 in 2013, dropping more or less in a straight line since the article's publication!"

"And now time for the spin: apparently households aren't formed when it is cold outside..."

“Real estate is up largely on the backs of investors leveraging easy money from uncle Fed. The latest figures show that household formation is contracting at the fastest rate since the recession officially ended in 2009. What is going on? Isn’t the stock market recovery an accurate barometer of the health of the real economy? Real estate values going up only mean that you have fast money pushing out regular buyers and also, making rents more expensive for a generation that is already having a tough time moving out on their own.”

“In reality what has occurred is that we have become a nation juiced to the gills on easy debt. Younger Americans are largely shouldering the brunt of the $1.2 trillion in outstanding student debt.The figures are troubling but also signify some bigger changes in the housing market. First, Americans are not going out and forming households in droves even though the population is growing:”

“ Higher prices are being driven by speculation, not real income growth or better job prospects. Rents going up are a reflection of investors pushing prices up and inventory being low thanks to banks hoarding properties and stunting their entire foreclosure pipelines for their own financial benefit.”

“Housing starts are still down well over 50 percent from their peak reached in 2006.”

While the term may have originated by Limbaugh encouraging people who enjoyed the show to just say "ditto", the word has now evolved to mean a blind follower of Rush's twisted logic.

A true dittohead would follow Rush Limbaugh blindly into the depths of hell if they thought he would allow them to touch one of his Oxycontin stained fingertips.

Bob: Rush Limbaugh is such a visionary. I would give my left testicle to share my Oxycontin prescription with him.

Steve: Why man, Rush Limbaugh is worth $500 million that the government knows of. He can afford to buy a child from South America and pay his way through medical school just so poor little Emanuel Limbaugh will be able to someday write Rush whatever prescription suits him that day.

Bob: Wow Steve, you are an idiot, Rush is just like you and me!!! He knows what's best for the people!!! HOW DARE YOU INSULT MY GOD!!!!

Steve: Sorry man. (Walks away)(Bob remains infuriated for days not realizing that he's a typical "dittohead")

If you want to put space between your thoughtful comment and a steaming pile of rotting, anti-Semitic horseshit, use dittos. Of course, it could be a Mossad trick, so always look twice under the bed.

anti-Semitic:

"The word "anti-Semite" does not actually originate from within the English language! Its first usage was by Willem Marr, a mid-ninteenth century anti-Semite who wanted a more scientific sounding term than "Judenraas" (Jew hatred) to use in his academic papers and came up with "anti-Semitisme" (he was one of the early proponents of racial theories about Jews based on a warped understanding of Darwin. His work was part of what formed the NAZI theories and led to the Shoah).

This was translated into English towards the end of the nineteenth century as "anti-Semitism"- and the first English dictionary entry of the word, the Websters 1913 edition, defines "anti-semitism" as "hatred of the Jews and their works". The attempts to redefine it by claiming it is at variance with the English constituent parts is a very recent phenomenon' only starting in the 1980s as an attempt to try and remove the power from the word to reduce its impact."

SemiteSem·ite[sem-ahyt or, esp. British, see-mahyt]noun1..a member of any of various ancient and modern peoples originating in southwestern Asia, including the Akkadians, Canaanites, Phoenicians, Hebrews, and Arabs.

Anti-Semite a person who is against peoples originating in southwestern Asia, including the Akkadians, Canaanites, Phoenicians, Hebrews, and Arabs.

Any other usage is pure proto-Nazi propaganda.If you embrace the proto-Nazi, it is because you are a proto-Nazi.

Thank you for taking the time to reply outlining your reasons for thinking my analogy was not "even close". Here let me re-print them:

"BobWed Jul 02, 07:17:00 PM EDT

Noble Ash, I must ask you a few questions. In you mind numbing analogy, is there a group that holds a religio/male dominance position that compels them to wish to wipe out the other group to the last child, and , further, finally impose their way of life on the whole earth? Is there a group that has been recognized as a State by the United Nations? Is there one that has not? Is there a group that has never had Statehood, ever? Is there a group that has suffered what is popularly known as a holocaust, and one that has not? Is there a group whose Mufti collaborated with Hitler, and one that did not do so at all? Is there a group that continually launches rocket attacks, suicide attacks against the other, forcing the other to build a wall to stop the suicide attacks? Dear Noble Ash, I could go on for a whole page, but you get the drift. Is there a group that was using camel for fire in the desert before the other group came along and and got busy and provided jobs? Is there a group that was kicked out of Jordan? etcetcetc"

Holy shit batman but what a crap load of conflation, wrong facts and bad history. Or, as you are prone to say:

"BobThu Jul 03, 11:09:00 AM EDT

That is truly delusional.

You really do live in a world of your own, rat."

Though, in this case, it is you living in a world of your own. A mufti who collaborated with Hitler, really? That is your comeback.

What this statement tells us, yet again, Bob, is how you define groups and pin blame based on selected history. Heck, if you want to continue the analogy we can tar all American based on the sins of some Americans in the past. Remember how the US Constitution treated black men less than white? Do you recollect any of the history against Negroes in the USA? Well, I guess the Mexicans deserve to occupy US land, should get a free immigration pass based on that checkered history. This is YOUR logic old man. Heck, why don't we toss in the USA - Mexico war to further support Mexican immigration.

I was hoping that you might, just might, show some empathy for the troubles of the Palestinians by 'walking a mile in their shoes', by trying to see things from their perspective. But no, you simply reveal your racism based on a flawed perception of history. You truly do live in a world of your own. Boobie's World!

We are trying to escape a long, and brutal recession. And, there's no guarantee that the mess isn't going to go on "longer," and be "more brutal."

No guarantees, at all.

(we still have a serious energy problem, looming.)

But, it's crazy not to take some isolated "good news" as good news, when it does happen to come along.

Some here hate Obama. I'm not real crazy about a lot of the Republicans, right now. Fine.

But, for Christ's sake, number is numbers. Today's numbers were pretty danged good. Why have a stupid hissy fit, with all those "yeah, but what about (fill in your favorite number, here) year? Huh? How about that?

It's silly, and childish, and makes you (you know who you are) look even more out of kilter than you did, already.

>>>The new village, that so pleased Nissim, was rows of small plastered houses painted in pastel shades, or white with pastel-colored woodwork. They have a porch-veranda, two fairly large rooms, a kitchen, a shower-washroom, and small gardens. No working-class Arabs I saw anywhere in the Middle East possess houses like these, but the owners were not satisfied, as I knew they would not be. One boy of about fourteen could speak English; boys of this age are valuable informants--they parrot their elders without reflection.

"We are very poor," he said.

"How can you be very poor and live in these houses? You have to pay for them."

"We must to work very hard. More harder than before. Terrible work. We have no land."

"Wasn't farming hard work?"

"No. That was easy. Not like now."

"How does your family manage?"

"My brother works. In Tel Aviv. In a gasoline station. That is terrible hard work."

When we left, the pretty, healthy children ran beside the car, shouting. I waved. Nissim looked queer, something was wrong; that chronic optimist seemed sad.

"What's the matter, Nissim?"

"Nothing. What the children say."

"You mean just now, shouting?"

"Yes. They say: 'Where you going, bastard? I spit on you.'"

What for, I thought, what for, and will it never stop?

"Do you hate the Arabs, Nissim?"

"No. Of course no."

"Why not?"

"What is the good of hate?"

What indeed? Arabs gorge on hate, they roll in it, they breathe it. Jews top the hate list, but any foreigners are hateful enough. Arabs also hate each other, separately and, en masse. Their politicians change the direction of their hate as they would change their shirts. Their press is vulgarly base with hate-filled cartoons; their reporting describes whatever hate is now uppermost and convenient. Their radio is a long scream of hate, a call to hate. They teach their children hate in school. They must love the taste of hate; it is their daily bread. And what good has it done them?<<

>>The Palestinian refugees are unfortunate victims of a brief moment in history. It is forgotten that Jews are also victims in the same manner, of the same moment. The Arab-Israel war and its continuous aftermath produced a two-way flight of peoples. Nearly half a million Jews, leaving behind everything they owned, escaped from the Arab countries where they lived to start life again as refugees in Israel. Within one generation, if civilization lasts, Palestinian refugees will merge into the Arab nations, because the young will insist on real lives instead of endless waiting. If we can keep the peace, however troubled, the children of Palestinian refugees will make themselves at home among their own kind, in their ancestral lands. For the Jews there is no other ancestral land than Israel.<<

I fail to see the relevance to our discussion Bob. That being said it takes two to tangle and the Israelis hands are not clean, nor the Palestinians. You, sadly, only wish to see half the story. You live in your own little deluded world where Israelis only do good and the Palestinians can only do bad. Boobies world exists only in black and white.

I agree with Gov. Long: then and now, the party system is a racket. If I had my way, I would clean out the lot.

My dispute with Mr. Obama is the same as my dispute with Mr. Bush: neither was/is up to the job. How did we get into this morass domestically and overseas? BO, that's how! They both stink.

I quoted others, not relying on my own limited knowledge or the bogus numbers generated by political hacks. That said, I do know something about the real estate sector. Among other things, if household formation collapses, and it has, the economy as a whole cannot be far behind. In 2012, the last year for which there are reliable numbers, 70% of real estate transactions in the Atlanta region were investor driven. As a lady friend tells me, her job now is spending the day putting together packages of cheap, ugly houses for purchase by investment groups. She goes for months without selling a house to an honest-to-god homebuyer. Indeed, the vast majority of construction in Atlanta is now multifamily.

It seems to me, there is a simple way to estimate the replacement level.

Each year a certain amount of people leave the work force due to death, retirement, whatever. And every year they are replaced by another group of people reaching 16 and needing a job. The increase in the latter over the former should give you your annual replacement rate.

The US population increased by 2.2 million people between 2012 and 2013. Dividing the 2.2 million by 12 gives you a replacement rate of 183,000 per month.

The 183,000 is a conservative number. Starting in 2007, the population growth rate percentage started a gradual decline. However, in 2011 it started a steep decline and is now at 0.71%, the lowest since the Great Depression.

Were we to take the average from 2000, we would be looking at a population increase of about 40 million which over a 13 year time span amounts to an increase of about 3 million per year. This would amount to about 250,000 per month, a replacement number for jobs to just stay in place not to recover what has been lost. [I have always heard the ballpark replacement number was at least 200,000 or more.]

BLS has projected job needs due to replacement from 2012-2022. If I have calculated the numbers correctly, they project 50.6 million job openings for that 10 year period, about 5 million per year. Of that total, they project 67.1 % will be from replacement, 3.35 million a year or 279,000 per month. This is the number needed to stay in place without any recouping or job growth.

[Replacement needs

Employment growth is not the only source of job openings. BLS alsoprojects job openings resulting from the need to replace workers whoretire or otherwise permanently leave an occupation. Job openings dueto replacement needs are expected in every occupation, even in thoseprojected to decline in employment.

--Over the 2012-22 decade, 50.6 million total job openings are expected. While growth will lead to many openings, more than two- thirds--67.2 percent--are projected to come from replacement needs.

--In more than 4 out of 5 occupations, openings from replacement needs are projected to exceed openings from growth.

--Nearly two-thirds of all job openings are expected to be in occupations that typically do not require postsecondary education for entry. (See table 7.)

--Twenty-two of the 30 occupations with the largest number of projected job openings are classified as not typically requiring postsecondary education. (See table 8.)]

This is not an attempt to pile on to Obama on the economic numbers but rather a different perspective on calculating the replacement level given the wide spread between Allen's 370,000 number and Rufus' 125,000.

The job numbers, unemployment rate's down to 6.1%. We've got close to a hundred million human beings, a hundred million Americans who are not working, and that number goes up every month. And yet the unemployment rate is coming down, 6.1%.

The only way that can happen is if people, the way they calculate, the only way it can happen is if people who've been out of work for four years minimum give up trying to find a job. Those people are no longer called unemployed. They're just forgotten. They're not tabulated.

So if you've been on unemployment for four years and you have given up trying to find a job, you don't get counted as unemployed.

That's the only way that they can keep the unemployment number going down, because it's expressed as a percentage of a very declining total workforce.

The number of people employed full-time ... declined by 523,000 while the number of part-time workers increased by 799,000 (which includes those who wanted part-time and those who wanted full-time but could only find part-time)."

Got that? June full-time jobs plunged by over half a million. Part-time jobs surged by 800,000. That's the most since 1993.

There is this number of 288,000 new jobs reported by the MSM. So 111,000 more people leave the labor force, 275,000 new part-time jobs this month. The number of people employed full time declined by over half a million. The number of part-time workers increased by nearly 800,000.

"Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work. Persons who were not working and were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been temporarily laid off are also included as unemployed"

1. I said I was wrong above and I was. I said you were right but that is true only of your statement that I was wrong. Your comment about unemployment was not relevant since it was replacement levels we were talking about. What is important is the participation rate or more importantly U6.

2. Your comments about the BLS numbers not being relevant are IMO my opinion wrong.

You say the past is the past, the present is the present, and the future is the future. That observation is only relevant if all you are saying is that the June economic numbers are pretty good. Beyond that it offers nothing to instruct. The past tells us where we've been and how far we have come. The future projections contains info on what will be required in the future and the future starts today.

3. The article you posted is good as far as it goes. However, it fails to mention a couple points. First, it discusses job increases in the 25 - forget what age; however, it ignores the continued problems that youth and recent college grads have in finding jobs. Every year, a new batch of high school grads enters the labor market.

Likewise, he points out that we are at a record level of employment but does not mention that in the last 6 years our population has increased by 18 million people with millions of new job seekers.

4. Finally, the comment about the baby boomer retirements is a little anecdotal. Pew put out a survey indicating that 49% of baby boomers do not expect to retire by age 65, 10% do not expect to retire at all. Likewise, projections are that the Millennials will match the Baby Boomers in total numbers.

Magnificent Ronald and the Founding Fathers of al Qaeda

“These gentlemen are the moral equivalents of America’s founding fathers.” — Ronald Reagan while introducing the Mujahideen leaders to media on the White house lawns (1985). During Reagan’s 8 years in power, the CIA secretly sent billions of dollars of military aid to the mujahedeen in Afghanistan in a US-supported jihad against the Soviet Union. We repeated the insanity with ISIS against Syria.