UPDATED 11/21/14 – Added two new polls showing Cassidy +15 and +11 in Louisiana Runoff race (See details in table below). That’s four polls now since the Midterm Election on November 4, and Cassidy averages a 15.8 point lead over incumbent Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu. Their runoff is December 6.

UPDATE 11/12/14, 9:30 AM ET -The Associated Press is calling Alaska for Republican Dan Sullivan. Begich refusing to concede at this point. That gives the GOP an 8th takeaway seat, and now 53-seats in the new U.S. Senate. If Cassidy wins the December 6 Louisiana runoff, our projection of 54 GOP seats will be right on the mark! We’ll see.

UPDATE 11/5/14, 7:45 AM ET - What a night for Republicans! It now appears very possible that our projection of GOP +9 will be exactly right! Republicans have picked off 7 Democrat Senate Seats so far: WV, AR, SD, CO, MT, IA, NC. Dan Sullivan leads in Alaska and Bill Cassidy is likely to defeat Democrat Mary Landrieu in Louisiana in a Dec. 6 runoff. If Sullivan and Cassidy win, it will be GOP +9 and the Senate will be – GOP 54, Dem 44, Ind 2 – exactly as we projected. Now, we did get two states wrong. The Democrats held onto NH, but lost NC. We had it reversed. But the numbers end up the same! As final numbers are confirmed, we will add those to the table below to compare with the polling averages. It’s clear, many polls overestimated the strength of the Democrats in this cycle. Thanks for stopping by during the 2014 Campaign. I hope you will stay with us for 2016!

11/3/14, 9:45 PM ET - We have added in the final polls issued today, and posted our final projections for the Senate Midterm Elections. We believe the Republicans will have a +9 net gain in Senate seats when it is all said and done. WV, SD, and MT are lock takeaways, with Arkansas and Louisiana fairly strong takeaways for the GOP. Colorado and Iowa look to be likely GOP takeaways, with Alaska less sure. That makes +8. The final two changes were to project that Pat Roberts will eek out a win in Kansas (a GOP Hold), and that Scott Brown will upset Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire. He has been closing fast, and we think Brown just may end up winning. We left North Carolina in the Democrat column, although it could turn red tomorrow night very easily. Kansas, New Hampshire and North Carolina are such close races, it is really anyone’s guess. We’ll see how it turns out tomorrow!

We currently rate nine races as “GOP Takeaway,” which would give Republicans a 54-44-2 Majority in the U.S. Senate.

The Democrats currently have a five-seat majority (55-45) when you include the two “Independents” who caucus with them. That means Republicans will have to net gain six seats to retake control of the U.S. Senate (If it is 50-50 with the two Independents voting with the Democrats, it would remain in Democratic control because the Vice-President would cast the tie-breaking vote). There are 36 races, 21 of them seats currently held by Democrats, and 15 by Republicans.

The 36 races (including special elections) are listed in the table below, with our projection for each race on the right column of the table. We have listed polls on races where available. We will now use polls from the last 20 days to figure the average (unless fewer than 3 polls are available).