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Bashar Assad could be looking at the beginning of the end

A quasi-military plan would create a humanitarian corridor inside Syria.

An image grab taken from a video uploaded to YouTube shows a tank firing in the Syrian city of Homs. Activists say that more than 450 people have died in the city duing the army's withering assault. (AFP / GETTY IMAGES)

This is a crucial week for Syria — hopefully, the beginning of the end of the murderous regime of Bashar Assad. After 11 months of bloodshed, the first real international push is underway to go beyond economic sanctions and intervene to help the beleaguered Syrians.

There is no plan for Libya-like air attacks or a land invasion. But there is a quasi-military plan afoot. It entails the creation of a humanitarian corridor inside Syria and a safe haven in Turkey for fleeing Syrians. The powerful Turkish armed forces would provide protection inside Syrian territory, if need be.

Before we get to that, meet Hassan Hachimi, a Syrian Canadian. The Toronto area architect is an exile from the Assad regime. He came here in 1996 from Saudi Arabia, where his father, an academic, fled in 1979 to escape the brutalities of Assad’s father, president Hafez Assad.

Hachimi is the Canadian representative of the Syrian National Council (SNC), the anti-Assad coalition operating openly from outside Syria and covertly inside. He has met Foreign Minister John Baird twice and found him to be helpful. The minister arranged for the Canadian embassies in Turkey and Britain to open diplomatic doors for the SNC.

The group is about to reach a milestone — formal recognition by a number of countries as the representative of the Syrian people. The initiative is led by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, three key players in the region, and backed by the United States, France and other allies — “Friends of Syria.”

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This would allow open, rather than covert, financial assistance to the group. More crucially, its military wing, the Free Syrian Army — already operating from Turkey — would be supplied arms and ammunition. That army would, as a start, try and open a safe corridor between the Turkish border and Idlib, only 25 kilometres inland. That’s one of the towns being besieged by the Syrian army. The hilly area there is not heavily patrolled. So the assumption is that the dissident army can take it and hold it.

If it does, the corridor would be used for humanitarian aid going in and Syrian refugees coming out to a safe haven in Turkey. If the plan works, it could be extended another 55 kilometres to include Aleppo, the second largest Syrian city, now surrounded by Syrian tanks. The historic mercantile centre has seen only minor protests and little violence but it has long been opposed to the ruling Assad clan and been under strict surveillance since the protests began in March.

All this will do little for the other cities under siege, especially Homs. But the hope is that breaching the Syrian fortress would prompt major defections from the Syrian army. About 40,000 lower-ranked soldiers have already done so, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

This week he is in Washington, which wants Turkey to take the lead on Syria. But Turkey wants to know how far to go. What if Assad bombs by air? Does Turkey use its anti-aircraft batteries or, worse, scramble its fighter jets? If so, that’s war, which nobody seems to want.

Unlike isolated Libya, Syria sits astride a combustible region. It has long used that strategic location to create a regional balance of terror. If attacked, it would try and drag in not just its backers Iran, Iraq and Lebanon (Hezbollah), but also Israel and Turkey. It could also fan a civil war internally.

Davutoglu is to meet not only Hillary Clinton but, significantly, also Defence Secretary Leon Panetta. Part of the discussion will be an old agreement between Syria and Turkey, allowing the latter to go up to five kilometres into Syrian territory if it feels threatened.

Turkey has hinted that it would provide protection for the delivery of humanitarian aid. The assumption is that its military would operate in that five-kilometre zone.

The Turkish-Saudi initiative was prompted by disgust at the Russian and Chinese vetoes in the Security Council against a resolution asking Assad to step aside. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia condemned Russia on Friday. That’s unusual for him. His salvo was a warning to Moscow that it would pay a price for its veto — and also if it were to overreact to the planned humanitarian initiative.

Washington may use the Abdullah statement as one bargaining chip with Moscow to let the humanitarian initiative proceed.

Expect a conference of the Friends of Syria soon to formalize the plan.

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