Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Pollster Leanings - Update

I've updated the pollster leanings chart for Angus-Reid, incorporating the last two months of polling. The favourability for the Conservatives has been reduced by an average of 0.6 points nationally and 0.5 points in Quebec, while the Liberals' unfavourability has been further increased by 0.3 points nationally and 0.5 points in Quebec. Angus-Reid's tracking of NDP numbers has improved by 0.6 points nationally and 0.4 points in Quebec, while it has also improved for the Bloc Quebecois by 0.4 points. There has been virtually no change in the relative favourabilty of Angus-Reid in polling Green support.

Nationally, AR is the second most favourable pollster for the Tories and the NDP at the national level. The are the most unfavourable pollster for the Liberals nationally and the second most unfavourable for the Greens. In Quebec, they are the second most favourable pollster for the Bloc Quebecois and the second-most unfavourable pollster for the Liberals.

The chart below tracks how each pollster tends to lean when calculating support levels for the various parties, as compared to the average polling results from other pollsters each month. This does not necessarily equate to a deliberate bias, but instead is more reflective of the polling methods used.

The following chart shows each pollster's average variation from other polling firms. The numbers are the amount of percentage points a particular pollster favours or disfavours that particular party compared to other pollsters over a similar period of time.

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Details on the methodology of the poll aggregation and seat projections are available here and here. Methodology for the forecasting model used during election campaigns is available here.

Projections on this site are subject to the margins of error of the opinion polls included in the model, as well as the unpredictable nature of politics at the riding level. The degree of uncertainty in the projections is also reflected by the projections' high and low ranges, when noted.

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