Monday, November 14, 2011

Chart of the Day - Romney Trending Down

Via Nate Silver:

Mr. Romney’s polls seem to be bending down a bit. Over the past week or two, we’ve seen a larger number of polls, both at the state and national level, that show him below rather than above 20 percent; the trend line from our graph, in fact, now has him at only about 18 percent overall. Considering that other Republicans have had their problems during this time period, I would call this trend at least mildly worrying for Mr. Romney’s campaign.

Nate Silver has much more, including charts for the other candidates HERE

40 comments:

I think the jury is still out, Mr. Romney may have turned a corner with the latest 2 or 3 national polls, but he still has not cracked the 25% mark. At the moment, everybody is under that mark. It is true that overall, Mr. Romney is struggling in state polls recently.

The concern for Romney is that whenever the current flavor of the week falters, he doesn't gain from it. In fact, sometimes his numbers go down. The current Gingrich surge is a perfect example. Newt seems to be pulling votes from both Romney and Cain.

In addition, a few pollsters have concluded the as many as 70% of poll respondents who have offered up Mitt as their first choice aren't fully committed to him. His "solid base" seems to be somewhere south of 10%.

In 2008, I believe he garnered about 25% of the vote. Despite having high name ID and more money than God, he hasn't built on that. In fact, many conservatives who supported him in 2008 (me included) have become ABR voters.

Bos, At the caucus, many voted for Romney out of peer pressure. The disdain for McCain was STRONG. At that point in time, it was clear that it would either be McCain or Romney. Furthermore, I wasn't as aware of Romney's flip flopping history as I am today.

Always, ALWAYS take Nate Silver with a grain of salt. I have tried three times to repeat his findings using his original source material, and every single time I've caught him placing his thumb on the scale.

Romney is it by default. No other credible people decided to run. Daniels, Christie, Ryan, Jindal, Jeb, etc. Some would say Romney has been lucky, but I would counter that a good part of the reason these great people decided against running, is that Romney made it pretty hard to compete against him. As it is, we're left with weak candidates who either failed to properly prepare, or who have too much baggage to win.

Romney fits the saying -luck is where preparation meets opportunity. Romney is that man.

One thing that's never captured in these polls (and likely never could be) is the sentiment and motivation of the individuals polled. I for one have voted in a phone poll recently for Cain (even though I'm a Romney guy). And the reason? Well, I'm a political junkie and quite frankly I don't want the race to be over this soon. I know that sounds a bit crazy but I sometimes wonder if other GOPers are playing like they support another candidate for now but when push comes to shoving in the voting booth...

The Real Clear Politics rolling poll averages have Romney at 22.5% support as of today. There are new polls coming out tomorrow that have Romney at above 26%. Perry and Cain had a terrible week and we don't always see it in the polls right away. IMO you will see Romney trending towards the 30% mark very soon. It looks to be a Romney vs Gingrich vs Cain battle as we head into late November. But things are fluid and are always changing. The one thing that doesn't change is the Romney support between 22%-30%.

RW How many PPP polls have had a different poll leader in the last six months ? it's kind of amusing, actually, but alas, we are coming to the end of the PPP democratic wish list and by December, the numbers will be on Romney and their will be nobody behind Door 2

RW, I think things are precisely the way Romney wants them for now. He could go out and make a bigger fuss--fight all the negative press, go on all the news shows, etc., but he is biding his time and will go full force when he needs to.

Even with the media doing their best to trash him--both right and left, he's still leading. Cain is a mirage, Perry is pathetic, and Gingrich will wilt when his past is front and center.

I truly believe this is exactly the way Romney wants it. I think his campaign is playing the game very well.

You are putting words in people's mouthes Martha. The ceiling is 25%, not 20%. For the record I think his ceiling is higher than 25%, but lowere than 65%. However, quit building up a strw man, nobody ever said that the ceiling was 20%

Martha is right about one thing...the Romney campaign is playing things very smart. Everyone complains he hasn't been on any big shows recently - but the fact is he doesn't need to. He remains in the top three consistently - all while the other candidates take each other out and get beat up by the 24 hour news press. Romney will jump into the media fray when it really matters - close to the caucuses and primaries. My guess is you'll see him all over the media beginning mid-December. Perhaps not until after Christmas - during the week that everyone stays home.

Yeah right. This is crap. Romney is at 70.4% on intrade today. And btw, all those former Romney fans who have joined the anybody but Romney camp today are by and large flip flopping hypocrites. They get to change their minds..but it is bad for anyone else to.

The truth is that there is a part of the base that fancies themselves perpetually aggrieved. They are victims, they cry, they whine...they claim they have been betrayed..last election they hated McCain..this time it is Romney's turn. If Huckabee had gotten in and actually came in number one, they would be hating on him instead. Because they like to complain.

And I do thank talk radio for that to some extent. They scream, they yell, they whine. BTW, The Heritage Foundation bought Rush Limbaugh off by giving him lots of money in a sponsorship fee. For that money Rush was willing to overlook the fact that they helped write Romneycare..how much money would it take to for Romney to buy him off? After all, Rush has made it plain that he is for sale.

My guess is Romney won't even try. He will just keep on doing what he is doing and in the end, he will win.

OJ, there is plenty of crying and whining to go around. I don't think it's reserved just for the party hacks and elites. By the way, I support Romney and I am a conservative, but according to so many people just my support for Romney makes me a RINO. I can't tell you how upset that makes me.

Ohio Joe...no, not really. Just listen to talk radio..that is all they do.

And by the way, nothing is stopping these people from coming up with a viable alternative..maybe if they spent less time complaining about Romney and all those Rinos and elitists out there and more time cultivating qualified candidates they would not feel the need to complain so much..