Klapisch: Five paths to ponder in 2nd half

Let’s be logical, the Yankees and Mets are probably sprinting in opposite directions in the coming weeks. But does that mean their fates are sealed? Not necessarily, not unless you know the outcome of several unfolding dramas.

Joba Chamberlain’s missing fastball, for one, could be the difference between the Yankees winning the East – or missing out on the postseason altogether. Carlos Beltran’s knee could either heal in another two weeks, or require season-ending surgery.

No wonder everyone’s holding their breath. At the doorstep of the second half of the season, here are five scenarios which, directly or indirectly, will either steer the Yankees and Mets toward prosperity or pure heartbreak.

Drag Me to Hell (aka, the back of the Yankees’ rotation).

The focal point, of course, is Chamberlain, who’s experiencing an undeniable velocity crisis. He’s nowhere close to the unhittable strikeout machine of 2007; with his heater down to 90-91 mph, Joba is a notch above ordinary, that’s it.

Chamberlain belongs back in the bullpen, just as Goose Gossage told the New York Post on Wednesday. He should be replaced by Phil Hughes, who now throws (considerably) harder than Chamberlain and is more mature on the mound. Indeed, one talent evaluator said, “Chamberlain doesn’t seem to have the tools to figure out what’s wrong. I used to like his arm, but I never liked his [brains].”

If the Yankees can stabilize the No. 3 spot, they’ll be in a better position to absorb Andy Pettitte’s inevitable decline at age 37. It’s not that Pettitte has lost his skills, it’s just that the ratio of solid performances to stinkers will continue on a slow, insidious slide until he finally retires.

The trajectory just happens to be more obvious when it piggy-backs poor outings by Chamberlain.

Halladay Pay

The line is long for Roy Halladay, and by all accounts, it seems like the Blue Jays will indeed trade their ace in the next week or so. Or will they? At least one major league executive believes Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi will lose his nerve at the eleventh hour, succumbing to fan pressure to keep the franchise’s most-beloved player and wait until the off-season to deal.

That would make sense in one regard: Ricciardi would be able to expand the pool of potential suitors and make a better trade. A mid-winter swap would also play better in Toronto, after the Jays (again) fail to get to the playoffs.

The Yankees and Red Sox are likely out of the running for Halladay, whether it’s this month or during the off-season. The Mets are keenly interested, but not because they have a shot at Halladay (they don’t), but because of the Phillies’ relentless pursuit.

GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has the money and prospects to make this deal happen. All he needs is Ricciardi’s consent. If it becomes a reality, the Mets can flip the calendar to pitchers-and-catchers in Port St. Lucie.

Pedro’s Pain

Assuming the Phillies don’t land Halladay, their decision to gamble on Pedro will take on greater significance. It wasn’t a bad signing, not at $1 million – the exact figure Martinez cited when mocking Tom Glavine this spring. Question is, can Pedro still pitch?

We’re guessing probably not. He looked good enough in front of the scouts and their radar guns, but facing major league hitters – and, more importantly, dealing with the next-day soreness – is another matter. Interesting that the Phillies are already reporting Pedro is suffering from a shoulder strain. We’re guessing he loses his effectiveness altogether by mid-August.

How all this affects the Mets depends on whether they get their core players back. The Phillies really have nothing to worry about from the Little Blue Engine, but Martinez’ presence, for better or worse, gives the rivalry a little extra texture.

Let’s say the Mets become whole inside of a month. Are they really good enough to overcome a deficit that now stands at 6½ games, and might be even worse in the coming days?

Don’t be so sure. One National League talent evaluator says, “the Mets’ problem isn’t whether their hitters are healthy or not, it’s the fact that their pitching is so appallingly mediocre. [Johan] Santana is all alone.”