Here Are The 8 Counties That Could Decide The Election

You've probably heard by now that the presidential election will come down to a handful of battleground states, which have absorbed the bulk of the money and time in the candidates' quest to cobble together the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

But just because a state is a battleground doesn't mean the whole state swings. Within each of these states — Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire — the race will likely be decided by a small number of counties, local campaign war zones that, in a very tight race, have the potential to determine which way the whole state — and possibly the whole election — swings.

In each of the eight swing states, we've identified one county that went to George W. Bush in 2004, swung to Obama in 2008, and could now make or break the 2012 election for either candidate. We've broken down the list here, along with the voting patterns, economic conditions, and other key factors that could decide how the counties swing on Tuesday night.

Wood County, Ohio

AP

Voting Record: Wood County voters don't pick parties, they pick winners. Residents of this suburban Toledo County have voted for the eventual winner in every presidential election since at least 1980. In 2004, Bush won the county over John Kerry, 53% to 47%; in 2008, Obama beat John McCain 52% to 46%, mirroring the national margin.

County Snapshot: When the candidates talk about saving the "middle class," they are talking about Wood County. Median income in the county is $53,298, slightly higher than the $52,000 national average, and just over half of adults have some type of college education. Wood County is 95 percent white, which puts Obama at a demographic disadvantage, but recent polls indicate he could make up the gap by turning out female voters.

Local Economy:Improving. A gradual economic upswing and voter support for the 2009 auto bailout could give Obama a much-needed boost in this bellwether. The largest private-sector employer in the county is Chrysler, which plans to add 1,100 jobs at its Jeep plant in Perrysburg next year.Wood County's unemployment rate was 6.3 percent in September, down from 7.9 a year earlier.

Henrico County, Virginia

Obama campaigns with former president Bill Clinton and Democratic Senate candidate Tim Kaine in Virginia. AP

Voting Record: A longtime bastion of Southern conservatism, Henrico County has morphed into the state's swing-y-est county over the last decade. Bush won the county by 8 points in 2004; in 2008, Obama beat McCain here 56% to 44%, becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate to win in Henrico since Lyndon B. Johnson. The county swung back to red in 2009, though, supporting Republican Bob McDonnell in Virginia's gubernatorial race.

County Snapshot: Henrico's electoral shift is primarily due to demographic changes and population growth in this once-predominantly white, exurban Richmond county. African-Americans now make up 30% of the population, up from less than 25% in 2000; the county's Latino population has exploded 132% since 2000; and Asians now make up 6.3% of the county's population, up from 3.6% in 2000. CNN's Peter Hamby points out that the result is a county that looks like a cross-section of the entire state, with a mix of moderates, liberals, social conservatives, and suburban swing voters.

As a result, voter turnout is crucial to winning Henrico County. The Obama team has the advantage of experience here, but Republicans have stepped up their game since 2008. And half of the county lies in the district of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who is under a lot of pressure to deliver for the GOP.

Local Economy:Good. The unemployment rate was 5.5 percent in September, down from 6.3% the year before and far below the national average. Despite the downturn, the area has experienced a boom in healthcare and education sectors.

X-Factor:The Senate race. Former Virginia Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine and former Republican Gov. George Allen, are locked in one of the tightest contests in the country, and strong Henrico County turnout for either candidate could affect the outcome of the presidential race there. Both candidates have won Henrico in previous elections, but Kaine, the former mayor of Richmond, probably has the advantage.

Brown County, Wisconsin

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Voting Record: Brown County, home to Green Bay, is one of Wisconsin's most purple counties. Brown voters voted for Obama over McCain, 54% to 45% in 2008, after backing Bush in 2000 and 2004. But the county flipped back in Wisconsin's 2010 gubernatorial election, giving Republican Scott Walker 56% of the vote. And in June, an astounding 75% of Brown voters turned out for the gubernatorial recall election, giving Walker a 20-point win in the county.

County Snapshot: Brown County is ground-zero for Walker-Obama voters. The blue-collar county is 90% white, with a median household income of $52,553, just above the national average. About 25% of voters have college degrees.

It is not yet clear where the Obama-Walker voter's loyalties will lie in 2012. National polls show that Obama has lost support among non-college-educated white voters, but also indicate that these voters aren't totally sold on Romney either.

Local Economy: Could be worse. Like many parts of the industrial Midwest, Brown County struggled with the decline in manufacturing, but has seen gradual improvement over the past several years. The regional economy has also become increasingly diversified, with growing healthcare and insurance industries. The county's September unemployment rate was 5.6%, lower than the state and national averages.

X-Factor: The vice presidents. Neither Obama nor Romney is particularly good at relating to the "everyman" voter, so the campaigns have frequently dispatched their No. 2s to Green Bay. Vice President Joe Biden was Obama's secret weapon with Catholic, blue-collar voters, but he may have met his match in native son Paul Ryan, a Packers fan from Janesville. So in the final days of campaigning, the Obama campaign brought in its ringer, former president Clinton, to seal the deal.

Jefferson County, Colorado

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Voting Record: Most of Colorado is either deep red or deep blue, so elections often come down to a cluster of independent voters living in just three Denver counties — Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer. Of the three, Jefferson County is the biggest and the swing-y-est. Bush beat Kerry here in 2004, 52% to 47%, but in 2008, Obama won Jefferson with 54% of the vote.

Local Economy: Still pretty bad. The major employers in Jefferson County are the federal government and Lockheed Martin. Although the economy has been gradually improving, poverty levels have risen sharply, and the economy remains the top concern among voters. The September unemployment rate was 7.1 percent, down slightly from 7.8 percent the previous month.

Hillsborough County, Florida

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Voting Record: Hillsborough County has sided with the statewide winner in all but one presidential election since 1960, making it the swingy-est county in this swing state. In 2008,Obama beat John McCain in here, 53 percent to 46 percent, besting John Kerry's 2004 results by seven percentage points.

County Snapshot: Home to Tampa, Hillsborough is one of five counties in Florida's I-4 corridor, the swing area that is a major battlefront in most presidential elections. Demographically, the county remains a toss-up: 75 percent of residents are white, and the suburbs tend to vote Republican; but the county's Hispanic and African Americans communities have grown over the past decade, to 25 percent and 17 percent of the population, respectively, and urban areas now lean Democratic.

In 2008, Obama won Hillsborough by turning out minority and independent voters with a massive ground organization that never really left the county after the election. This time around, the Obama campaign has 106 field offices in Florida, compared to Romney's 49. But the GOP made inroads by hosting the party's convention in Tampa, and the powerful Florida state GOP has built up field operations to compete with the Obama machine.

Local Economy:Terrible. The I-4 corridor has been decimated by the collapse of Florida's housing industry, and the Tampa area recorded the highest foreclosure rate in the country — 47 percent — for the first half of 2012. On the bright side, the unemployment rate in Hillsborough County has fallen 2 points since September 2011, although it remains high at 8.6%.

X-Factor:Ads.Obama outspent McCain three-to-one in the Tampa market in 2008, but Republicans are outspending Democrats there this time around, although both campaigns have saturated the Tampa market with upwards of $50 million in ads each. But ad spending has changed in the post-Citizens United political universe, and how Tampa votes will likely tell us a lot about just how effective the flood of ads really were this cycle.

Cedar County, Iowa

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Voting Record: In Iowa, the whole state swings, so it seems less likely that the race will come down to one nail biting county. Republicans, Democrats, and Independents each make up about one-third of registered voters, and the three groups are spread out relatively evenly across the state.

But if you want to see how the election is playing out in Iowa, Cedar County is the place to look. The vote there has exactly mirrored the statewide margin in each of the last three presidential races. (The Des Moines Register's Craig Johnson has also put together a list of 11 other counties that are in play in Iowa.)

County Snapshot: Cedar County is a tiny exurb of Iowa City, with a population of just 18,500, of which 98% is white. Voters in Cedar County tend to be moderately conservative. The county generally votes for Republicans in local elections, but statewide races and the presidential are tossups.

Local Economy: The unemployment rate in Cedar County was 4.8 percent in September, far lower than the national average. Like the rest of the state, Cedar County has mostly been spared from the economic slump, due in large part to Iowa's thriving clean-energy manufacturing sector. Cedar County is home to the Acciona wind turbine factory, one of Iowa's major wind-power plants, so Romney's opposition to wind-power tax credits could hurt him here.

X-Factor: White men.In a county with virtually no minority voters, the extent of Obama's problems with white voters — and particularly white males who didn't go to college — should be readily apparent. If Obama gets routed in Cedar County, the results could indicate more widespread problems for the president in Iowa and other Midwestern swing states. On the other hand, if Obama is able to hold on to the county, it could be an indication that his problem with this voting bloc is regional, rather than racial.

Hillsborough County, New Hampshire

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Voting Record: In a close match-up, the fate of New Hampshire's four electoral college votes would likely depend on Hillsborough, a swing county that's home to 30% of the state's voters. Bush narrowly won Hillsborough in 2000, and again in 2004, but Obama swung the county blue in 2008, beating McCain 51% to 47.5%.

County Snapshot: Located near the Massachusetts border, Hillsborough County is split between urban voters in Manchester and Nashua, who tend to be balanced out in elections by Republican voters in towns near the Massachusetts border.

But New Hampshire has shifted to the right since 2008, and the GOP's message of fiscal discipline resonates with voters there. It also doesn't hurt that Romney owns a summer house in the state.

Local Economy: Better than most. The unemployment rate in Hillsborough County was at 5.3% in September, far lower than the national average. Between 2008 and 2011, New Hampshire's GDP grew by 3.89%, making it one of the top 10 states in terms of GDP growth.

X-Factor:The map.Given that New Hampshire only has four electoral college votes, it's unlikely that Hillsborough County will cast the deciding votes in the 2012 presidential race. But anything can happen — if Al Gore had won New Hampshire, he wouldn't have needed Florida.

Washoe County, Nevada

AP

Voting Record: Once a reliable Republican stronghold, Obama won Washoe by 12 points in 2008, becoming the first Democratic candidate to win the county since Johnson. Washoe is now the only real swing county in Nevada. Veteran Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston points out that Democrats can win Nevada without winning Washoe County. But if Romney closes in on Obama's margins in Democratic Clark County — home to Las Vegas and 70% of the Nevada's population — the race could come down to Washoe.

County Snapshot: Situated along the Nevada's northwestern border, Washoe County includes Reno and Sparks, but is otherwise mostly rural, so campaigns tend to hinge on ground organization. In 2008, the Obama campaign won the county largely on the strength of its aggressive voter turnout strategy. Local Republicans, with the help of conservative Tea Party groups like Americans for Prosperity and FreedomWorks, have stepped up their mobilization efforts this cycle, but have suffered from a fractured state party organization.

Local Economy:Awful. The county has had more than 40 straight months of double-digit unemployment, and the jobless rate now stands at 10.8 percent. Nevada also had the second-worst foreclosure rating in the country in the first half of 2012, and Reno-Sparks ranks among the top 50 metro areas in foreclosures. These have seeded a strong anti-Establishment, anti-incumbent streak among Washoe voters, which does not bode well for Obama.

The X-Factor: Mormons. The importance of Nevada's "Mormon vote" for Romney has probably been over-hyped — Mormons account for just 6.7% of the state's population, and tend to vote Republican anyway. But members of the LDS Church could provide Romney, a fellow Mormon, with an established and very reliable grassroots organization that could help close the gap with Obama in the field.