NDP, Greens see uphill battle if election is near: polls

NDP leader Jack Layton. File photo.

Photograph by: Chris Wattie/Reuters

OTTAWA — New Democrats and Greens are shrugging off results of opinion polls suggesting they are being squeezed out of a looming election campaign battle between the two larger political parties.

But with the latest Ipsos Reid poll results suggesting the smaller parties each dropping five percentage points to levels of 13 and five per cent popular support, respectively, across the country, analysts say the political left has a mountain to climb in the days and weeks ahead.

"The New Democrats don't seem to have a particularly compelling issue at the moment, to be honest with you," said Richard Sigurdson, dean of the faculty of arts at the University of Manitoba. "The economy may not be booming but it's doing reasonably well and doing better than the United States' economy. Our unemployment situation isn't as desperate as it has been in the past."

Sigurdson, who is also a political studies professor, said the New Democrats also have fewer examples of what they can do in power with only two provincial NDP premiers in Manitoba and Nova Scotia. Meantime, he said Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives, which appear to be closing in on support levels required for a majority government, are not giving the New Democrats enough ammunition to grow.

"The government nationally is being somewhat conservative fiscally, but it really hasn't started to slash and cut budgets in a way that has led to an outrage in the streets that the NDP could somehow get support from," he said.

Although the NDP traditionally does well in byelections, Sigurdson said a recent loss in Manitoba to the Liberals also suggests the New Democrats might be concerned about losing ground.

But New Democrats believe they are on the right track.

"There are other polls that show us going in the opposite direction," NDP leader Jack Layton said. "Polls keep coming out, and they seem to multiply . . . All I would advise people to do is think about whether or not this government is delivering for them."

Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker said the NDP may have lost some core supporters in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada and some rural areas after the New Democrats failed to support a Conservative bid to scrap the long gun registry last fall.

Bricker noted that one recent survey had pegged NDP voters as the second-most likely to own a gun behind Tory voters.

"So in that sort of circumstance, they've sort of exposed themselves on that issue," said Bricker.

Ian Capstick, a former NDP strategist who now runs MediaStyle, a communications consulting firm, said the party always faces a challenge to elicit media attention outside of election campaign periods. But he said Layton has done a good job keeping the media interested by not yet committing to support or to vote against the budget, slated to be delivered March 22.

"Jack Layton is standing in the eye of the storm, which if you know your weather, that's the absolute calmest place to be," said Capstick. "That is particularly important, in the lead-up to an election, for New Democrats to be paid attention to. If we're not paid attention to in the lead up to elections, we're obliterated."

He agreed that the polls were volatile but would change as the public starts to pay more attention to federal politics in a campaign.

As for the Greens, Bricker explained that the drop in support in the latest poll may have been related to a change in the question to respondents which only mentioned the four parties with seats. He suggested that some respondents who chose the Greens when prompted in previous polls were not likely to actually vote.

But Green leader Elizabeth May said she wants to continue focusing on making a breakthrough victory, starting with Saanich-Gulf Islands in British Columbia where she is running against Conservative cabinet minister Gary Lunn.

"There's no question that until we are in the House of Commons . . . getting out our message is tough," said May. "I'm not crying the blues about it. There are reasons. Most of our press releases are not picked up. It's the reality of being somewhat disadvantaged in getting our message out to Canadians."

Meantime, May said she is pleased about progress for her party, which she noted received almost as many votes as the Bloc Quebecois in the last election. She said the recent addition of former NHLer Georges Laraque as deputy leader is also helping the Greens get some access to media they weren't getting before, including on sportstalk shows.

"They're very happy to interview Georges about his one hat-trick and his career in the NHL and then they're interested in why he's in the Green party," she said with a chuckle.

Almost Done!

Postmedia wants to improve your reading experience as well as share the best deals and promotions from our advertisers with you. The information below will be used to optimize the content and make ads across the network more relevant to you. You can always change the information you share with us by editing your profile.

By clicking "Create Account", I hearby grant permission to Postmedia to use my account information to create my account.

I also accept and agree to be bound by Postmedia's Terms and Conditions with respect to my use of the Site and I have read and understand Postmedia's Privacy Statement. I consent to the collection, use, maintenance, and disclosure of my information in accordance with the Postmedia's Privacy Policy.

Postmedia wants to improve your reading experience as well as share the best deals and promotions from our advertisers with you. The information below will be used to optimize the content and make ads across the network more relevant to you. You can always change the information you share with us by editing your profile.

By clicking "Create Account", I hearby grant permission to Postmedia to use my account information to create my account.

I also accept and agree to be bound by Postmedia's Terms and Conditions with respect to my use of the Site and I have read and understand Postmedia's Privacy Statement. I consent to the collection, use, maintenance, and disclosure of my information in accordance with the Postmedia's Privacy Policy.