Transaction Analysis

May 15-18

It looks like Velarde's elbow woes are of the career-ending variety, which
means the Angels have to get away from the ugly temporary solutions at second
(Carlos Garcia, Paco Martin, or Craig Shipley), and bring in somebody who can
actually help. Baughman is not a great player, and he may have trouble
initially in shifting over from shortstop, but he's been a good and potentially
outstanding defender. His offensive game is centered on speed (15/4 SB/CS this
year, after 118 steals in the previous two seasons), with less power than Gary
DiSarcina, but better plate discipline. He may be raw, having skipped AA, and
only a month of AAA experience. Given the alternatives, the Angels can probably
count their blessings if Baughman simply shows a willingness to work and learn.

An outstanding pickup for the D-backs. Telemaco will initially be in the
bullpen, and he has the opportunity to claim almost any role on this team. If
the intent is to eventually work him into the rotation, leaving him in relief
for the time being will be good for his long-term development. Given the
D-backs' bullpen problems, he could also end up claiming the closer's role.
That would be a waste of his potential as a starting pitcher, but it may be
more in line with the team's current needs.

Losing Mussina again clearly isn't going to help, but for the long-term, his
absence may shake the organization out of its unrealistic expectations of
contending with this team, which leaves Angelos at a crossroads: trade what
little talent there is on the farm to contend with this team and the huge
investment it already represents, or acknowledge that catching the Yankees
isn't very possible, and parting with as many of the graybeards as possible.
Given the past decisions to fight bitterly to the end, and avoiding trades for
prospects, we probably know which way they're going to go. That means this year
is beginning to look more and more like '86, when the last strong Orioles team
died, only to discover its farm system was barren.

Bobby Munoz has been pitching well in relief at Rochester, and it isn't
inconceivable that he can resurrect his career. Charlie Greene was basically
unnecessary after Chris Hoiles started getting his throwing arm working, and
Lenny Webster showed he was healthy. Nevertheless, he deserves to be remembered
fondly as the guy who got the Ozzeroo off the roster.

Rose hasn't been an asset in the early going (1-4, 6.93 ERA, 9 HRs in 37.2
innings), while Steve Avery pitched a nice little five innings against a Royals
lineup missing Dean Palmer. Since that came on the tail of three crummy starts
in Pawtucket, he may not be a great long-term option for the rotation. Despite
public hand-wringing, they're also settling on leaving Derek Lowe in the
rotation. That's the product of the unfortunately quick hooks for Robinson
Checo (two starts) and John Wasdin (one), but Dan Duquette seems to be becoming
more and more responsive to a perpetually hostile and panicky Beantown media
circuit.

There is no good public explanation for what's happened here. The Cubs wanted
to get down to 11 pitchers. Don Wengert has options remaining, and Kevin Foster
won't be ready until the first or second week of June. Yet the Cubs decided to
waive (and not designate for assignment) Telemaco, thus losing him, while
keeping the spectacularly useless Wengert on the roster for another two or
three weeks. So the Cubs get nothing for a young pitcher with some value, and
still have Don Wengert, who they're going to get rid of shortly anyways, after
dumping a useful LH pitcher to add him in the first place. This comes in the
wake of Terry Mulholland's griping for a trade, in which he blamed Lynch for
misleading him about whether or not he'd be a rotation regular when he signed
(there isn't much reason for sympathy for him: if the man's agent can't count
heads or know about Kerry Wood's existence, he needs to blame somebody other
than Lynch). The other slender benefit is to bring in Hardtke as middle infield
insurance of a sort, since Jeff Blauser's knee is keeping Jose Hernadez and
Manny Alexander busy at short. Once again, the decision to keep three bad
catchers is making the Cubs a waystation for free talent for other teams.

Recalling Reyes makes sense on two counts: first, as we all know, Darren
Dreifort is having big problems getting into the sixth inning in his starts.
Second, various nagging injuries to rotation starters had led to more use for
Frank Lankford than I'm sure the Dodgers originally expected. Since they need
either a better long relief option in the first place, calling up Reyes gives
them the option to use Reyes or Dreifort interchangeably as the fifth starter
or in long relief. Dreifort almost certainly helped his cause with a good
outing in his last start.

Its hard to call anything a mortal blow to a placeholder franchise, but losing
Hermanson is pretty close. Johnson was pitching horribly at Harrisburg (6.95
ERA, 9 HRs in 33.2 innings), but he was rested and ready, so he got an
emergency shellacking while Carl Pavano pitched his third rehab start at
Ottawa. Its expected that Pavano will get activated by the coming weekend,
taking his place in a rotation of Carlos Perez, Trey Moore, Javier Vazquez, and
Miguel Batista.

NEW YORK YANKEES

Assigned RHP Frank Lankford to Columbus. [5/15]

Lankford got smacked around early and often for the Dodgers, who decided they
couldn't hide a Rule Ver on their roster for a season. He'll join Columbus'
struggling rotation.

This may be one of Bellhorn's last shots at winning any future role on the
major league roster. Initially, the A's have said that Mike Blowers will be the
regular 3B in Magadan's absence, and Eric Chavez is looking certain to claim
the job by '99. So Bellhorn has to impress now to get a shot at Scott Spiezio's
job at second, or hope Blowers slumps. Of course, Blowers pounded the bejeezuz
out of White Sox pitching the last three days, so Bellhorn is probably out of
luck. Losing Magadan moves Jason McDonald back to the top of the order, while
putting Blowers in the middle of the order (fifth or sixth).

Portugal pitched extremely well in his return appearance. If the Phillies are
lucky, he'll give them another eight or nine good starts so that he can be a
commodity by the trade deadlines in July and August.

This was the long way around admitting that Donovan Osborne is still broken and
can't be fixed, and comes at the same time as the acknowledgment that Alan
Benes won't be back until after the All-Star break. Aybar will return to the
rotation after going 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his brief banishment to AAA,
joining a rotation of Todd Stottlemyre, Kent Mercker, Mark Petkovsek, and ...
well, what's Joaquin Andujar up to these days? Seriously, either Mike Busby or
Juan Acevedo could end up starting, pending another brief return by Matt
Morris. Croushore is an organizational soldier who's struggled as a starter
(good heat with little movement), but may end up being almost as valuable as
John Frascatore in helping opposing batters fatten up.

Thanks to the alert readers who caught last Friday's typing error: Rigo
Beltran, of course, was traded to the Mets for Juan Acevedo in the offseason,
so it wouldn't be very easy for the Cardinals to call him up any time soon, and
my bad habit of confusing Beltran and Raggio in the past doesn't help matters
any.

Mouton had an outstanding camp to earn a roster spot, but he's struggled since
the games started to count (.184/.255/.265), so Rivera may get a crack to stick
as the fourth OF and defensive replacement for Greg Vaughn. Of course, he's
been awful in Vegas (.144/.222/.260), but unlike Aaron Guiel, he's right-handed
and was part of the Irabu booty, so there's an organizational imperative to
show him off.

Tatis earned his demotion in combustible fashion: an astounding 33 baserunners
in 8.2 innings. Doing that without working for Lou Piniella is a rare treat
most fans don't get to relish. However, the selection of a token lefty in the
pen to take his place seems a bit surprising: Aldred has an assortment that
doesn't break in on lefties, and he's never been particularly good at getting
them out. The alternatives at Durham were Ryan Karp, who is effective against
lefties despite currently sporting a 4.91 ERA, and the ever-amazing Brad
Pennington. Pennington is teasing folks with another dandy season: 22.1
innnings, 15 hits, 13 walks, 27 Ks, a 2.42 ERA through Sunday. Although neither
man will make folks forget Paul Assenmacher or Craig Lefferts, let alone Tony
Fossas or Rick Honeycutt, they're both better suited for the job than Aldred,
and both could wind up being assets, given the time.

Bobby Smith's trip to the DL creates playing time for Scott McClain, which is a
nice thing to see, since he brings a similar group of skills (some sock in a
righty bat, good glovework at third) to complement Wade Boggs.

Christina Kahrl is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Click here to see Christina's other articles.
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