In this article I
examined how many of the top fantasy QBs in 2004 were greatly aided by easy
fantasy schedules. To recap: Manning, Culpepper and McNabb were phenomenal,
and Marc Bulger performed much better than his end of year stats would imply.
But Jake Plummer (QB5), Brett Favre (QB6), Jake Delhomme (QB7) and Aaron Brooks
(QB8) really weren't that much better than the average QB last year; they just
managed to play sixteen games and had easy fantasy schedules. There are
very few true difference makers at the QB position - and the strength of one's
schedule tends to have a great impact on his end of year ranking.

Last year, my Quarterback-by-Committee (QBBC) article suggested drafting Jake
Plummer (good), Jake Delhomme (good) and Brad Johnson (not good). Since many
fantasy players don't devote the necessary time to thoroughly analyze strength
of schedule, extra value exists for the sharks out there. How did this system
perform last year? Let's review the teams that I predicted to have the easiest
eight schedules in 2004:

Denver - Projected to have the easiest schedule; actually
tied for the 4th easiest fantasy schedule. Plummer was a huge steal, ranking
fifth.

Tampa Bay - Projected to have the 2nd easiest schedule; actually
tied for the 11th easiest schedule; Brad Johnson stunk, but Brian Griese had
a great year and ranked 13th in FP/G.

Carolina - Had the 14th easiest schedule; Jake Delhomme was a great value,
ranking seventh.

Jacksonville - Had the 3rd easiest schedule; Leftwich still wasn't any good.

Tennessee - Tied for the 4th easiest schedule; Volek was phenomenal in
relief of McNair.

Atlanta - Tied for the 11th easiest schedule; Vick was a bit of a disappointment
however.

Minnesota - Projected to have the 8th easiest schedule; actually
tied for the 4th easiest schedule; Culpepper had one of the greatest seasons
ever (Note: Manning had the 2nd easiest schedule last year).

There were definitely more hits than misses when it came to predicting the
schedules last year, which is a positive sign. On the opposite end of the spectrum,
Carson Palmer was projected to have - by far - the hardest schedule. He ended
up having the hardest schedule, and didn't hold much fantasy value. Among offenses
with the ten hardest passing fantasy schedules last year, the highest any QB
ranked in fantasy points per game was Tom Brady (15th).

Why is strength of schedule so important? Consider this: How good (or bad)
the 11 guys on defense is simply the flip side of how good (or bad) the 10 other
guys are on offense. We upgrade Manning thanks to Harrison, Wayne and Stokley;
Trent Green produces excellent numbers because he plays in a great system with
playmakers at RB and TE, and the fantastic offensive line in front of him. To
put so much weight on supporting cast (Kerry Collins flying up the draft charts
anyone?) but little weight on the strength of the opposition is foolhardy.

The QBBC Theory

During the first five-to-seven rounds of your draft, you want to accumulate
the stud RBs and WRs that simply won't be available later in the draft. The
drop-off at RB is much steeper than the one at QB, so your ideal first five
rounds might land you three RBs and two WRs. So how do you select the top RBs
without losing out on the points you'd get from having a star QB? By selecting
two-to-four QBs whose schedules combine in such a way as to create ideal matchups
against weak defenses.

Earlier this offseason, I came out with a Defensive Team by Committee article,
which can be seen here. This article will follow many of those same principles
in helping us find a committee. What are we looking for in our QBBC?

Lots and lots of bad pass defenses on our schedule

Three mid-level QBs that won't be among the top 10 QBs drafted

Alternatives in case one of our QBs is picked by another owner.

The first two principles form the basis of the QBBC approach. As often as possible
we want our starting QB facing a weak defense. (In fact, with the teams I chose,
your QB will face a bottom six pass defense every week but three times.) By
weak defense, we mean defenses that allow high fantasy point totals to opposing
QBs. This can sometimes be counterintuitive; teams with no offense and terrible
rush defenses (and perhaps bad overall defenses) are undesirable opponents,
since QBs don't pass much against them. Think the Dolphins or Browns last year.
The flip side of that would be a team like San Diego. The Chargers scored a
lot of points and had a great run defense, which resulted in their defense seeing
the most pass attempts in the league.

Note: I strongly advocate adding a third QB. Quarterbacks often miss
several games during the season, and you don't want to be caught with just one-or
possibly zero-starters. Additionally, adding a third QB gives you one more chance
to hit a home-run with a late pick. There's also the added benefit of taking
away a possible strong starter from your opponents. For these reasons and others,
I think you need to grab a third quarterback for this plan to work.

What if you play in a league that starts two QBs per week? I'd almost view
them as two different positions - QB1 and QB2. I'd have no problem with going
QBBC for your QB2 position, and possibly taking a stud like McNabb at QB1. I
don't think going QBBC for one of the two QB positions should have a large effect
on what you're doing at the other. However, it WILL be much tougher to get all
three guys for a committee. You're probably only going to want to go with just
two in these leagues.

So how do we rank the defenses? I used a variety of sources to help determine
which teams would yield the best opponents for our QBBC. I factored in the following
2004 stats: fantasy points allowed to QBs (thanks to Clayton Gray), passing
fantasy points allowed to QBs, quarterback rating allowed and yards per attempt
allowed. Additionally, I added some personal opinion of offseason moves, to
finalize the list.

Note: The scoring system for "2004 Rank" is as follows: One point
for twenty yards passing, four points for every passing touchdown, minus one
point for an interception; one point for every ten rushing yards and six points
for every rushing TD.

The following table shows my ranking of the 2005 defenses, along with how each
team ranked in some key 2004 categories. Remember, this ranking shows the "opposing
defense we LEAST want our QB to face."

Team

2005 Rk

2004 Rk

PFPA Rk

QBRA Rk

YPAA Rk

Buffalo Bills

1

2

2

1

1

Pittsburgh Steelers

2

1

1

2

4

Baltimore Ravens

3

5

3

3

9

Philadelphia Eagles

4

9

9

8

3

Washington Redskins

5

3

7

5

2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6

6

5

9

5

Miami Dolphins

7

4

4

10

6

New England Patriots

8

13

12

7

11

Carolina Panthers

9

14

11

4

21

Arizona Cardinals

10

7

10

6

7

New York Jets

11

12

14

13

18

Denver Broncos

12

10

8

11

8

Cleveland Browns

13

7

6

16

10

Chicago Bears

14

16

17

14

16

Jacksonville Jaguars

15

11

13

18

20

Cincinnati Bengals

16

15

16

17

12

Seattle Seahawks

17

20

20

15

13

San Diego Chargers

18

18

21

12

19

Dallas Cowboys

19

25

27

27

25

Detroit Lions

20

23

24

23

17

Atlanta Falcons

21

16

15

19

22

St. Louis Rams

22

19

18

26

14

New York Giants

23

22

19

24

15

Houston Texans

24

25

26

22

23

Minnesota Vikings

25

30

29

28

29

New Orleans Saints

26

23

23

20

28

Kansas City Chiefs

27

32

32

30

32

Indianapolis Colts

28

28

25

21

24

San Francisco 49ers

29

20

22

29

27

Green Bay Packers

30

29

30

31

26

Tennessee Titans

31

27

28

25

30

Oakland Raiders

32

30

31

32

31

I applied the same technique to ranking the QB's schedules as shown in the
DTBC article for team defense's schedules. If Detroit plays Green Bay in week
one, they get 30 'points' for that week. When the Jets play the Bills, they
get just one 'point' for the week. Bye weeks are assigned zero 'points'. I went
through the entire NFL schedule, and assigned point values for each opponent
on the schedule for all thirty-two teams. Obviously, we want our opposing QBs
schedule to have as many 'points' as possible.

The Top Thirteen

Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger, Trent Green,
Aaron Brooks, Kerry Collins, Brett Favre, Mike Vick and Matt Hasselbeck are
the consensus top ten among Footballguys.com projections, Footballguys.com expert
rankings and most average draft position data. (Although Aaron Brooks has fallen
out of the top ten more often than I'd expect). Three other QBs - Tom Brady,
Jake Plummer and Carson Palmer - seem to immediately follow that top ten.

The QBBC Trio

The three quarterbacks I've selected shouldn't be among the top 12 QBs drafted
in most leagues, enabling you to draft them after you've built the base of your
team. In most leagues, teams won't start selecting a second QB until the 7th
or 8th round. I'd suggest taking the QBBC trio in succession, beginning in round
seven or eight.

Their combined schedule yields 443 'points' or 472 'points', depending on if
your fantasy league includes week seventeen. (Note: For the rest of this article,
all 'point' totals exclude week seventeen, as most leagues don't play that week.)
What this means, is that on average your QBs face the 28th best defense every
week. You should be able to mix and match the schedules, in the way I've outlined,
to get excellent production out of the three QBs.

The Combined Schedule

Week 1: Tennessee (31)

Week 2: @Houston (24)

Week 3: New York Giants (23)

Week 4: @Cincinnati (16)

Week 5: Tennessee (31)

Week 6: @Oakland (32)

Week 7: Indianapolis (28)

Week 8: Kansas City (27)

Week 9: @Green Bay (30)

Week 10: @Indianapolis (28)

Week 11: Kansas City (27)

Week 12: @Indianapolis (28)

Week 13: Oakland (32)

Week 14: @Tennessee (31)

Week 15: Indianapolis (28)

Fantasy Super Bowl Week 16: @Kansas City (27)

Week 17: @San Francisco (29)

The last twelve (or thirteen) weeks of the season your starting QB will be
playing one of the worst defenses in the league. This looks to be about as easy
a schedule as you could ever dream up: each of those defenses should be routinely
giving up big games to opposing QBs.

In four games against the Raiders, Chiefs and Colts last year, Brees averaged
293.75 passing yards, three touchdowns and 0.25 interceptions. With five
games against those high-scoring teams in 2005, Brees should once again
be able to post huge numbers. Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson form
perhaps the top RB-TE combination in the league, and Brees should continue
to rely heavily on them.

Full seasons out of Keenan McCardell and Reche Caldwell could certainly
help Brees, who had a Pro Bowl season last year. The fantasy community is
down on Brees, who rarely is among the first ten QBs selected. But remember
that Brees' great statistical 2004 could have been even better: he sat out
week 17, and in a game in Cleveland a snowstorm made San Diego abandon the
pass (just six attempts).

Brees is just 26 years old and should become a larger part of the offense
following his breakout season: he ranked 4th in passing fantasy points per
pass attempt last year behind only Manning, Culpepper and McNabb. In high
scoring games against the Raiders, Colts and Chiefs, expect Brees to rack
up both the pass attempts and fantasy points.

In five games against the Titans, Colts and Chiefs last year, Carr was
mediocre averaging just 216 yards and one TD. But there's certainly reason
for optimism for Carr in 2005. He has improved every year, seeing his passer
rating jump from 62.8 his rookie year, to 69.5 and finally 83.5 in 2004.
The Texans are becoming a legitimate NFL franchise, and that will enable
Carr to become a viable fantasy starter against weaker defenses. Recall
that both starting WRs, the left side of the offensive line, David Carr
and Dom Davis have been in the NFL for three years or less. The Texans will
continue to improve as the offense gets experience playing together.

Some improvements were apparent last year. After ranking in the bottom
four in completions, attempts, yards and touchdowns during their first two
seasons, Houston ranked 23rd in completions, 24th in attempts and 16th in
passing yards in 2004. Houston's defense isn't very strong, so the offense
will have to be more aggressive to earn wins against the Bengals, Chiefs,
Titans and Colts. With ultra-talented WR Andre Johnson and RB Dom Davis
both entering their third seasons, Carr should have enough weapons at his
disposal to put up some big games.

Like Drew Brees, Roethlisberger should become a much more central part
of the offense after his phenomenal 2004 season. The Steelers had the fewest
pass attempts in the NFL last year, but Roethlisberger made the most of
them: He ranked just behind Brees in passing fantasy points per pass attempt.
He was top five in the NFL in yards per attempt and quarterback rating.
Many expected Roethlisberger to struggle making the transition from the
MAC to the NFL, especially since he only played three years in college.

But Roethlisberger surpassed all expectations, and should only improve
with experience. Road games against the Packers and Colts could be a blessing
in disguise: last year the Steelers dominated weaker teams often, and would
abandon the pass in the second half of those games. The Steelers starting
two RBs are a combined 63 years old, and Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley are
no longer elite talents. While Pittsburgh will remain a running team, Roethlisberger
should produce strong passing stats against these weak pass defenses.

Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

What do you do if you can't acquire all three QBs? Here are the top QBBC alternatives.
The top 10 QBs in the league are all excluded from this list. (The number of
'points' generated by the combined schedules of the three QBs is shown in parenthesis.)

Drew Brees, David Carr, AND

Trent Dilfer (444)

Eli Manning (432)

Tom Brady (431)

Kurt Warner (430)

Kyle Boller (429)

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, AND

J.P. Losman (417)

Kurt Warner (416)

Drew Bledsoe (415)

Steve McNair (408)

David Carr, Ben Roethlisberger, AND

Brian Griese (426)

Steve McNair (426)

Rex Grossman (421)

Jake Plummer (419)

Drew Bledsoe (418)

The Top Ten Other Duos

If you exclude the top 10 QBs, along with Brees, Carr and Roethlisberger, there
are still some good late combos out there. Here are the top ten pairs:

Jake Plummer and Byron Leftwich (378)

Kyle Boller and Steve McNair (377)

Byron Leftwich and Steve McNair (373)

Trent Dilfer and Patrick Ramsey (372)

Kurt Warner and Steve McNair (371)

Rex Grossman and Steve McNair (370)

J.P. Losman and Trent Dilfer (369)

Rex Grossman and Drew Bledsoe (369)

Steve McNair and Patrick Ramsey (369)

Kurt Warner and Byron Leftwich (368)

Stud QBs

Some people really like the idea of having a stud quarterback leading their
team. Here are the top four schedules that match up with the studs.