Atty Bill Owens (D) leads in the early count (27% of precincts reporting) by a 51-44% advantage over accountant Doug Hoffman (C). Some keys to Owens' early success: He's taking his home, Clinton Co., with 57%, and also slightly winning Jefferson and St. Lawrence Cos -- places where Hoffman needs to do very well.

Jefferson and St. Lawrence Cos are traditionally GOP strongholds, but they're also Assemb. Dede Scozzafava's (R) base. If Owens continues to do well in these counties, Hoffman will be in trouble. But it's still very early.