CREE: Piper Ups Target to $70 on Lighting Prospects, Utilization

By Tiernan Ray

Piper Jaffray’s Jagadish Iyer today offers up the take-aways from a management roadshow with executives of light-emitting diode technology maker Cree (CREE), whose shares he rates Overweight, after raising his price target to $70 from $60.

Iyer writes that he came away from the meeting “bullish in terms of Cree’s growth prospects along with sustained profitability at least over the next 12-18 months as secular growth in lighting gets underway.”

The $100 billion lighting industry may convert to LED by as much as 50% come 2016, Iyer opines, which could produce upside to Street estimates, he thinks:

We estimate Cree’s revenue growth could at least range from 20-30% y/y on the backdrop of a 30-40% industry CAGR over the next 3 years. We see lighting products growing over 30% y/y while LED products could grow 15-20% y/y. However consensus estimates 18% y/y growth for the next 2 years implying meaningful upside if Cree grows at the industry growth rate.

It’s possible the company will see margin benefit from increased factory utilization, he thinks:

CREE experienced improved factory utilization in 1Q13 and we believe that trend will continue through ’13, following the introduction of the $10 bulb at Home Depot which should ramp aggressively and tick up utilization. Further, the Company expects that it can remove 50% of the BOM cost of the chip every 18-24 months from elegant design resulting in energy efficient packaging along with migration to 6″ substrates, better electronics and higher lumens/wafer, all of which should help sustain margins. Additionally, with minimal price declines in downstream lighting, we believe blended overall gross margins could hover in the high 30% for the next several quarters.

Iyer raised his estimate for revenue this year slightly to $1.7 billion from a prior $1.697 billion, while maintaining a $1.32 EPS estimate.

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Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written by Barron’s veteran Tiernan Ray. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields. Comments and tips can be sent to: techtraderdaily@barrons.com.