Prediction

UEFA Euro 2016 qualifiers: predictions for Matchday 1

Dr Nicolas Scelles

Posted: September 5, 2014

Following on from a post earlier in the week, The Scorecard presents predictions for this coming week’s UEFA international games:

Home

Away

Score

Model 1 corrected

Model 2

Denmark

Armenia

2-1

0.57

0.59

Georgia

Ireland

0-1

-1.25

-0.81

Hungary

Northern Ireland

2-1

1.15

0.54

Faroe

Finland

0 or 1-3

-2.74

-2.01

Greece

Romania

2-1

0.92

0.95

Germany

Scotland

3-1 or 0

2.10

2.54

Gibraltar

Poland

0-4

-4.08

-4.381

Portugal

Albania

1 or 2-0

1.37

1.61

Serbia

France

1-1

-0.496

-0.37

Russia

Liechtenstein

3-0

3.36

3.495

Austria

Sweden

1-1

0.49

0.31

Montenegro

Moldova

2-1

0.97

1.16

Luxembourg

Belarus

1-2

-1.33

-1.29

Spain

Macedonia

2-0

2.02

2.19

Ukraine

Slovakia

2-0 or 1

2.21

1.37

Estonia

Slovenia

1-1 or 2

-0.37

-0.96

San Marino

Lithuania

0-3 or 4

-2.98

-3.93

Switzerland

England

1 or 2-2

-0.68

-0.20

Kazakhstan

Latvia

1-1 or 0

0.46

0.59

Azerbaijan

Bulgaria

1-1

-0.29

-0.15

Croatia

Malta

3-1 or 0

1.58

2.86

Norway

Italy

1-2

-1.19

-0.69

Czech Republic

Netherlands

1-1 or 2

-0.496

-1.14

Iceland

Turkey

1-1

-0.18

0.26

Andorra

Wales

0-2

-1.63

-2.33

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Cyprus

3-0

3.23

3.44

Israel

Belgium

1-2

-0.72

-1.07

1Given that Gibraltar did not play in the past, we arbitrarily chose to allocate San Marino’s coefficient to Gibraltar.

2 Israel-Belgium has been postponed and will be played on March 31, 2015.

About Dr Nicolas Scelles

Nicolas Scelles is a Lecturer at the School of Sport, Stirling University, Scotland. He holds a PhD in sports economics from the University of Caen Basse-Normandie, France. He has articles in international journals including Applied Economics, Economics Bulletin, International Journal of Sport Finance and International Journal of Sport Management and Marketing.