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Friday, June 8, 2012

Gold needs to reclaim the $1,600-$1,605 area to regain market confidence, says Triland Metals. Otherwise, the focus could return to the $1,525 area where the metal held last month. Gold sold off Thursday when the market was disappointed that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in congressional testimony, did not signal more strongly than further quantitative easing was in the works. Triland compares the situation to the sell-off from the late-February highs after a similar Bernanke appearance. Hopes for more easing had picked up when Friday’s U.S. May non-farm payrolls report fell below forecasts for the third month in a row. “On huge volume, the gains of the last few days have been wiped out,” Triland says. Sell stops were triggered as gold fell below $1,600, Triland says. The Comex August contract settled $46.20 lower at $1,588 an ounce following the close of the pit session.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

(Kitco News) - Commodity markets are weaker on the
back of financial instability in Europe and a slowing economy in China,
but looking toward the rest of 2012, precious metals and energy
markets may be two of the few bright spots for the sector, according to
a Deutsche Bank research report released Monday.

Even with the risk of a higher U.S. dollar, central bank gold
buying, negative real interest rates and the possibility of further
central bank stimulus should support gold’s price, the bank said. Oil
market fundamentals could tighten over the next 12 months and
considering global economic growth will remain above 3% this year and
next year, any fall in oil prices will be short-lived.

“Historically it has only been when global growth has fallen
below 2.5% that downward pressure on the oil price has been almost
impossible to arrest by OPEC production cuts, at least over a 6-12
month horizon,” Deutsche Bank said.

Agricultural prices will likely be under pressure over the
summer because of rising supplies across a number of markets, the bank
said.
Industrial metals could see prices rise on an eventual rebound
in Chinese gross domestic product, easing credit and a pickup in
public sector housing construction. “However, the pace of these measures
may be slow to materialize,” they said.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

(Kitco News) - Rising concerns about Greece after
this weekend’s elections left electoral parties unable to form a
coalition government has pressured most financial markets, including
gold, which is not acting as a safe haven for investors.
Equities and commodity markets in general are down sharply as
investors worry that new elections may be held next month if no
coalition Greek government is formed and that the Mediterranean country
could be coming closer to a default on its debt obligations. Only the
U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury markets rose, pushing yields down. Yields
on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note are at lowest since February.
June gold prices on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange were down $35.90, or 2.2%, to $1,603.20 an ounce as of 11:49
a.m. EDT. The market hit a low of $1,595.50 that was the lowest price
since Jan. 3.
Gold fell with the rest of the markets as investors sought to raise
cash. Dave Meger, director of metals trading with Vision Financial
Markets, said a pick-up in the eurozone worries typically triggers a
“risk-off” trade in which the first move by participants in a broad
range of markets – including gold – is to move the sidelines. A
stronger U.S. dollar adds to the weight in gold and other metals.

Gold’s weakness was exacerbated by “another one of
those tsunamis of selling,” says John Howlett, division vice president
with Mitsubishi International. “Supposedly upwards of 14,000 lots of
gold were sold in the 5 minutes from 8:20 to 8:25--the old open-outcry
opening time,” he says. “After the 7,500 that went on April 30, it may
be safe to say that somebody’s system is telling them to abandon ship.
And that somebody has some substantial volume to chuck around.” He
cites two technically bearish items for gold: “the market is
significantly through and closing belowthe 300-day moving average for
the first break since 2008 and the market is also ‘under the cloud’ on
the ichi moku chart for the first time since Q1 2009. The caveat on the
second item is that it’s best on a weekly chart and it’s only
Tuesday.” Meanwhile, a trendline back to November 2008 puts support in
the area from $1,595 to $1,605, he adds. As of 2:10 p.m. EDT, Comex
June gold was $34.40, or 2.1%, lower at $1,604.70 an ounce.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Survey participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey see gold
prices rising next week, but bulls do not have the majority of the
opinion.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 25
responded this week. Of those 25 participants, 11 see prices up, while
six see prices down, and eight are neutral. Market participants include
bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and
technical-chart analysts.
Those who see higher prices said the U.S. dollar’s action will determine where gold may go.
“With the dollar weakening versus the euro, gold should do well
in the week and month ahead. I look for a $1,680 target next week and
longer term, the next 4-6 weeks, $1,725 is a reasonable upside
objective,” said Ken Morrison, editor and founder of online newsletter,
Morrison on the Markets.
Generally a weaker dollar supports gold since the metal is denominated in dollars.
Technical analysts said $1,620 an ounce is a key chart level for gold to hold next week.
Those who see weaker prices also spoke of currency factors,
suggesting that the euro may come under pressure if there are any
surprises in this weekend’s French presidential elections or
weaker-than-expected results regarding eurozone manufacturing data due
out next week.
Several who said they were neutral on prices or saw prices
holding in a sideways pattern said the lack of a strong trend in gold
should continue for the time being, which means range-bound trade.

Friday, April 13, 2012

Gold rose on a recovery in risk assets and a softer U.S. dollar, says
HSBC. An Italian bond auction was described as well received and not
presenting a near-term negative for the euro, the bank says. Further,
the U.S. trade deficit for February narrowed, mostly due to increased
exports, prompting a rally in risk assets and a shift out of U.S.
bonds. “This supported EUR/USD, and in doing so, helped buoy gold and
the other precious metals,” HSBC says. “Gold prices were further
supported by a relaxation of eurozone funding stresses. One sign of
reduced stress in the eurozone bank funding market was the slight
narrowing of the EUR-USD 3-month currency basis swaps. This was
supportive of the EUR and therefore positive for gold.” As of 4:19 p.m.
EDT, Comex June gold was $17.30, or 1%, higher for the day at
$1,677.70 an ounce. May silver was up 83.4 cents to $32.355.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

SINGAPORE, April 5 (Reuters) - Gold edged up on Thursday,
after diminishing hopes of more monetary stimulus from the U.S.
central bank and a weakened euro pushed bullion to its lowest
level in nearly three months in the previous session.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold inched up 0.2 percent to $1,621.89 an
ounce by 0027 GMT, off a near three-month low of $1,611.80 hit
in the previous session.
* U.S. gold rebounded more than half a percent to
$1,623.30.
* Gold tumbled for two days straight after the U.S. Federal
Reserve released minutes from its last policy meeting which
showed policymakers were less likely to push for more monetary
easing as the economic outlook gradually improves.
* A job market report said on Wednesday that U.S. businesses
added more than 200,000 jobs in March, giving fresh evidence of
recovery.
* Adding to gold's woes, the euro fell to a three-month high
against the dollar as worries about the euro zone debt crisis
rekindled after a poorly received Spanish government bond sales.
* European Central Bank cautioned about the downside risks
to the economic outlook and dismissed a German-led push for the
bank to start planning a retreat from emergency crisis-fighting.
* The Shanghai Gold Exchange reopens on Thursday after a
three-day hiatus. When the market closed last Friday, the
popular spot gold deferred contract closed at
339.13 yuan a gram, or $1,674 an ounce.
* SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed
exchange-traded fund, said its holdings were unchanged at
1,286.621 tonnes by Wednesday. But holdings in the world's key
gold ETFs gained 44,761 ounces on the day to 70.4 million ounces
(2,190 tonnes).
* Spot silver edged up 0.2 percent to $31.36 an
ounce, after sliding 4 percent in the previous session -- its
largest daily decline in more than a month.