LOL at Pat Cash, didn't he say Nadal couldn't win 4 RG in a row before he slaughtered Fed in that 08 final? :lol:

We'll have to see how his form is going in to the French Open before we can make a good call on this. It's still months away and during those months he is set for a lot of clay match practice. He is the greatest clay courter of all time so I can't imagine it'll take too long for him to feel at home on his favorite surface.

I predict he'll probably win these 250 tourney's coming up but with okish form, then he'll probably lose IW and Miami earlier than his results last year, then he'll head into the clay masters seasons, pick up form as Monte Carlo goes by, win Barcelona and from there his confidence will be back.

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This! ...sounds like a reasonable scenario. I thin a lot will depend on his self-confidence and that is why playing a few smaller tourneys is clever. He can re-build his confidence, before running into any top players to early (top players at this stage are not only top 5, but rather top 20 or more. Unexpected losses in these tourneys however could be water on grains of doubt and uncertainty that are certainly there after a long time off competition.
Also, his knees are still hurting. Lets see what the next few weeks bring...then it might be time for a prediction. Right now it all is a big pile of guesswork for not to say BS.

I wonder why the ITF felt it necessary to test Nadal 4 times in two weeks after he announced his return? Hmmmmm....

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Why did they not test him a bit more often before that? Obviously, should he have been taking stuff, he would have made sure to be off it with out provable traces before announcing a come back. Having said that, until proven I believe not in doping, not for Nadal, not for any other top player.

The Swede, a three-time French Open winner and former world number one, is sure that even if his name is Rafael Nadal, “he's still an outsider” in Paris this year, with Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Federer the men to beat.

Madrid - Rafael Nadal who is set to fly to Chile on Thursday to return to the ATP tour seven months later is a different man: he has a new racket, a new approach to his business interests and a lot of questions open regarding his tennis.

Can the former world number one go back to being the player he once was?

As soon as Nadal confirmed his return to the tour after a long injury break, the International Tennis Federation (ITF) proceeded to test him for doping four times in two weeks, according to sources close to the player. Overall, Nadal was tested “six or seven” times ahead of his return, ITF president Francesco Ricci Bitti told dpa.

However, since he recovered from a double knee injury and started to play again in November, the Spaniard has spent most of his time trying to adapt to the new tool of his trade: Babolat's Aeropro Drive racket.

Like most players, Nadal is conservative when it comes to his play; he does not like to change what appears to be working. But that is precisely what coaches are there for.

“Uncle Toni put pressure on Rafa to change. If you want to be better, you have to take risks,” Eric Babolat, the owner of the firm that makes the racket Nadal has been playing with since age 12, told dpa.

“I don't agree with what you're saying, but I'll give it a try,” Babolat said Nadal usually tells his uncle-coach.

According to the Frenchman, the new racket and new strings give “more power and more control” to the Spaniard's shots.

“More top spin, he already has a lot of that but he wants more,” said Babolat.

The racket manufacturer admits it is “a nightmare for rivals,” usually overwhelmed by the height that Nadal's strokes attain due to this top spin effect.

By the end of the year, the racket could be even closer to science fiction, because the plan is to put on it a chip that will collect data about every stroke.

“It could become a habit, something usual after sport: sitting with your friends to compare each one's technical data,” Babolat says enthusiastically.

And while Nadal adapts to his racket ahead of the Vina del Mar, Sao Paulo and Acapulco tournaments he is set to play in February, his business activities are taking on a new dimension.

Carlos Costa, a former top 10 tennis player who has been Nadal's manager for years, left the agency IMG, the world's biggest in the field, to create a family company with Sebastian Nadal, Rafael's father.

The move is just like one that Swiss tennis star Roger Federer and his manager, Tony Godsick, undertook a few months earlier.

Godsick left IMG and now manages along with Federer all the business generated by the former world number one. There are no longer any commissions to pay or anything to debate: they have control of everything.

The same thing is to happen with Nadal from now on.

Once he has chosen his racket and set his business interests on a new track, questions focus on the winner of a record seven titles at the French Open: at 26, will he be able to replicate the form and results of his best years? Several top commentators have doubts.

“I don't think he necessarily needs time to be Nadal, but I think he needs some time for the other players to think of him as the old Nadal, because I think players lose a lot of respect: not respect for him as a person, but respect for his level,” Mats Wilander told dpa in Australia.

The Swede, a three-time French Open winner and former world number one, is sure that even if his name is Rafael Nadal, “he's still an outsider” in Paris this year, with Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Federer the men to beat.

“This is the year of and Novak and Andy's chance to win the French, and Roger's already won it, but it's obviously his chance too,” Wilander said.

Australian former tennis star Pat Cash agrees.

And so does tennis legend Andre Agassi, another former world number one, who thinks Nadal cannot be expected to return to top form before 2014.

“I found whatever time you take away from the game you need that time to double to be fully where you were when you left, that's my experience,” Agassi told Australian daily The Age in a recent interview regarding Nadal.

He was speaking from experience, after crashing in the ATP rankings and then climbing back up.

Wilander is convinced that Nadal will take a while to fully recover his form.

“If he wins Roland Garros this year... I'd be admitting that I was completely wrong, because I can't imagine that he wins Roland Garros this year,” he said.

Current world number one Djokovic is not so sure and bewares of Nadal.

First, I keep hearing "New Racquet", do you mean the new version of the same raquet or something specifically different like a bigger or smaller size, weight, etc.?

As far as coming back, sometimes a rest is what people need. Aggassi went into self imposed exile, Nadal has practiced as much as his body could take, and if he's 100% physically, he will be the man to beat, despite the layoff.

Lastly, DO THEY DOPE TEST OR NOT? If so why all the ruckus about whether or not Djoke is doping? I mean is it just Nadal? Is this just random? What is the policy for drug testing in the ATP?

First, I keep hearing "New Racquet", do you mean the new version of the same raquet or something specifically different like a bigger or smaller size, weight, etc.?

As far as coming back, sometimes a rest is what people need. Aggassi went into self imposed exile, Nadal has practiced as much as his body could take, and if he's 100% physically, he will be the man to beat, despite the layoff.

Lastly, DO THEY DOPE TEST OR NOT? If so why all the ruckus about whether or not Djoke is doping? I mean is it just Nadal? Is this just random? What is the policy for drug testing in the ATP?

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I did? Well, feel free to cover any or all topics you want.

And about the new racket, seems like you didnt get the memo. BTW, what you read is not my writing, that's why there is a link there. I thought that's obvious.
What you saw was the opinion of Agassi, and Wilander and other retired pro players and like I said they talk from experience. What's yours experience? How did you come back from being away from pro tour?

I doubt that Djokovic will win the CYGS this year. It's possible I guess, but highly unlikely IMO.

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The only slam he isnt the likely winner of at the moment is Wimbledon, and even there it is hard to say who is the likely winner. It isnt likely for Federer to win any particular slam at this point, he can win another Wimbledon or U.S Open before he retires, but he isnt the likely winner going in of any. Murray should win a Wimbledon at one point, but Djokovic is starting to won that matchup again, and Federer and Nadal have both owned him at Wimbledon to date. Nadal isnt the likely winner of Wimbledon unless he actually does return and win RG, and even then it is debateable, especialy after his abysmal 2012 performance there.

The only slam he isnt the likely winner of at the moment is Wimbledon, and even there it is hard to say who is the likely winner. It isnt likely for Federer to win any particular slam at this point, he can win another Wimbledon or U.S Open before he retires, but he isnt the likely winner going in of any. Murray should win a Wimbledon at one point, but Djokovic is starting to won that matchup again, and Federer and Nadal have both owned him at Wimbledon to date. Nadal isnt the likely winner of Wimbledon unless he actually does return and win RG, and even then it is debateable, especialy after his abysmal 2012 performance there.

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I do not see Djokovic winning the CYGS. I don't think people are realizing how hard it is. If he couldn't do it in 2011 he's not doing it period IMHO. Also IMHO if Nadal or Federer couldn't pull it off Djokovic is not doing it. Everybody overreacts these days when a guy wins the AO, and he struggled there in one of his matches to boot.

I do not see Djokovic winning the CYGS. I don't think people are realizing how hard it is. If he couldn't do it in 2011 he's not doing it period IMHO. Also IMHO if Nadal or Federer couldn't pull it off Djokovic is not doing it. Everybody overreacts these days when a guy wins the AO, and he struggled there in one of his matches to boot.

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I agree it's very difficult, but not because he didnt win it in 2011. Nadal was a big factor Then. Yes he wasnt in the final but big matches with Nadal slowed him down.

Now with Nadal and Fed weakened he has a chance. We will know much more when clay masters and Nadal have played.

I agree it's very difficult, but not because he didnt win it in 2011. Nadal was a big factor Then. Yes he wasnt in the final but big matches with Nadal slowed him down.

Now with Nadal and Fed weakened he has a chance. We will know much more when clay masters and Nadal have played.

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I agree... His 2011 was significantly aided by Federer having a pretty sub-standard year (playing-wise) for long patches. I don't think Federer is weakened really - he came to this year's Aussie Open with a different approach and defended his points but generally played sharper imo. Djokovic showed he can be patchy too - his match with Wawrinka could easily have been a clanger.

Coming into the clay court season I wonder how it'll pan out. I think Federer's AO experiment can be considered a success in some ways, not so in others. His long-term clay pedigree is certainly better than Djokovic's and it'd only take a very minor variation in on-the-day form for Federer or Murray to send Djokovic packing. Peaking at the right time is going to be paramount if Djokovic has any chance of winning all four this year.

I agree... His 2011 was significantly aided by Federer having a pretty sub-standard year (playing-wise) for long patches. I don't think Federer is weakened really - he came to this year's Aussie Open with a different approach and defended his points but generally played sharper imo. Djokovic showed he can be patchy too - his match with Wawrinka could easily have been a clanger.

Coming into the clay court season I wonder how it'll pan out. I think Federer's AO experiment can be considered a success in some ways, not so in others. His long-term clay pedigree is certainly better than Djokovic's and it'd only take a very minor variation in on-the-day form for Federer or Murray to send Djokovic packing. Peaking at the right time is going to be paramount if Djokovic has any chance of winning all four this year.

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Cahill sitting courtside in Murray match thought Fed was a little slow. But no doubt Rodge will have his chances at any of the next 3 majors.
BTW, never before the importance of draw had shown itself so much in the outcome. Had Mur fallen in Djoker half, the final would have been quite a different ball game.

A bold statement to make when 4 out of Djokovic's 6 majors have been in Melbourne.

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Since Djokovic first became Djokovic he has won 2 of the 6 non AO major events, 3 of 9 if we extend to the Olympics and WTF. That is still more than anyone else in that span. With Nadal out of commision entirely for the moment, and Federer continuing to age, and Djokovic continuing to only get better, the odds just keep getting better for him.

Since Djokovic first became Djokovic he has won 2 of the 6 non AO major events, 3 of 9 if we extend to the Olympics and WTF. That is still more than anyone else in that span. With Nadal out of commision entirely for the moment, and Federer continuing to age, and Djokovic continuing to only get better, the odds just keep getting better for him.

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I wonder when Djokovic's knees are going to start going kaputt with all that sliding he does on HC.

Anyway, no surprise if Djokovic wins RG 2013, no major surprise if Rafa wins it either. Still want Rafa to win, of course.

Since Djokovic first became Djokovic he has won 2 of the 6 non AO major events, 3 of 9 if we extend to the Olympics and WTF. That is still more than anyone else in that span. With Nadal out of commision entirely for the moment, and Federer continuing to age, and Djokovic continuing to only get better, the odds just keep getting better for him.

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How can djoker possibly be continuing to get better when he clearly peaked in 2011 and is almost 26, heading out of his prime years?

When did this myth of most players being old at 26 come from. Maybe Nadal did but rising to World #2 and becoming a Slam Champion at only 18, and with his playing style and injury proneness that is hardly a surprise. I believe it is myth started by Federer fans when Nadal overtook him and Djokovic challenged him hard while still in his prime at 26 and 27, oh god prime Federer has to be invincible every year so he must be past his prime, when in reality he didnt leave his prime until almost 29. Djokovic like most players at only 25 or 26 is still in his prime, and will continue to be so for another several years atleast, to the dismay of many (and myself included if Rafa comes back strong as I grudingly concede Djokovic has been the same constant thorn in his side his entire career that Nadal was to Federer the entire career of Roger). As for his exact playing level and peaking or not, he already ended 2012 and started 2013 playing superior tennis to what he played most of 2012, so whether he reaches or surpasses 2011 or not, he is already on the up again in that department.

I don't think any player won a slam four months after coming back from a long term injury break of 6-8 months.

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I don't think any player ever did what Nadal has done on clay. Surely, you're aware that Nadal has broken records left and right on the red stuff by now. Any other player winning 7 RG and losing there just once? He can definitely win this RG. Whether or not it has been done before is totally irrelevant.

When did this myth of most players being old at 26 come from. Maybe Nadal did but rising to World #2 and becoming a Slam Champion at only 18, and with his playing style and injury proneness that is hardly a surprise. I believe it is myth started by Federer fans when Nadal overtook him and Djokovic challenged him hard while still in his prime at 26 and 27, oh god prime Federer has to be invincible every year so he must be past his prime, when in reality he didnt leave his prime until almost 29. Djokovic like most players at only 25 or 26 is still in his prime, and will continue to be so for another several years atleast, to the dismay of many (and myself included if Rafa comes back strong as I grudingly concede Djokovic has been the same constant thorn in his side his entire career that Nadal was to Federer the entire career of Roger). As for his exact playing level and peaking or not, he already ended 2012 and started 2013 playing superior tennis to what he played most of 2012, so whether he reaches or surpasses 2011 or not, he is already on the up again in that department.

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There is substantial data to demonstrate that, barring a few outliers, elite tennis player performance peaks between 22 and 25 and declines thereafter.

What you are saying is correct in that at 26 a player is not "old" and is still very close to his best. On the other hand Mariecon's point, as I understood it, is valid as well. Namely that at 26 a player starts moving AWAY from peak performance and is unlikely to IMPROVE.

Lendl and Connors are two obvious counterexamples but they are huge outliers in this regard.

There is substantial data to demonstrate that, barring a few outliers, elite tennis player performance peaks between 22 and 25 and declines thereafter.

What you are saying is correct in that at 26 a player is not "old" and is still very close to his best. On the other hand Mariecon's point, as I understood it, is valid as well. Namely that at 26 a player starts moving AWAY from peak performance and is unlikely to IMPROVE.

Lendl and Connors are two obvious counterexamples but they are huge outliers in this regard.

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Well add Agassi, so now you would have atleast 3 outliers. Add Laver and Rosewall (both Open Era players) now you have 5. Sampras arguably played his best ever tennis in 1997 and mid 1999 before the injury at ages 27 and 28, so add another one. Becker played some of his best tennis ever in 1995 and 1996 and he was in his late 20s by then, so there is another.

Well add Agassi, so now you would have atleast 3 outliers. Add Laver and Rosewall (both Open Era players) now you have 5. Sampras arguably played his best ever tennis in 1997 and mid 1999 before the injury at ages 27 and 28, so add another one. Becker played some of his best tennis ever in 1995 and 1996 and he was in his late 20s by then, so there is another.

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I would request you to take a look at the thread below. I have plotted the ages of all 444 finalists at majors and season finales in the open era. as you will see the overwhelming majority of 22-25 year-olds outperform 26+ year-olds. The sample size is statistically significant. I have further charts and analysis which I hope you will find interesting.

by the way totally agree about agassi also being an outlier (he slipped my mind).

laver and rosewall were 29 and 33 respectively at the start of the open era; they performed really well in the first few years of the open era. but it is difficult to conclude from this that they were at their best - we don't know how much better they would have performed if the open era had started while they were in the 22-25 range. any comparisons between post-68 and pre-68 are not apples to apples.

sampras won 8 majors in the 4 years he was 22-25 and only 4 over the next 7 years. becker won a single major after turning 26. so while these two guys certainly hit highs after the age of 26, they could not sustain those highs for multiple seasons.

“I found whatever time you take away from the game you need that time to double to be fully where you were when you left, that's my experience,” Agassi told Australian daily The Age in a recent interview regarding Nadal.

He was speaking from experience, after crashing in the ATP rankings and then climbing back up

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LOL this is my favorite part. Sorry to derail the thread but I was thinking about this. Serena comes back in under 1/8th the time she takes off. She has GOT to be doping. Look how hard it is for Del Potro. Yet Serena comes back and wins slams after skipping EVERY warm up event.

sampras won 8 majors in the 4 years he was 22-25 and only 4 over the next 7 years.

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This is the best and most similar example to compare with Djokovic. Both won a slam and then didn't start winning them regularly until 3 years later. Like you said, Sampras won 8 majors in the 4 years he was 22-25 and only 4 over the next 7 years. Djokovic won 5 majors in the 4 years he was 22-25 and he will definetely win less than that over the next 7 years. He has played 600 matches already and that is when players slow down their slam winning as we have seen since 1990. It happened to Federer and Nadal as well. It's called mileage.

I don't think any of these great players won the same number of slams after 600 matches played than they did before reaching 600 matches. Even Agassi slowed down after 600 matches played in the very early noughties. Agassi won like 5 slams(I think?) before reaching 600 matches played and won just 3 slams after reaching 600 matches. Sampras won about 11 slams before the 600 mark and just 3 after. Federer won 12 slams before 600 matches played and then 5 slams after. Nadal won 9 slams before 600 matches mark and then just 2 slams after that. None of them, not even Agassi, won as many slams after 600 mark than they had won before reaching the 600 matches played mark. I wouldn't be surprised if Djokovic wins only 3 more slams.