NCAA Championship Preview: Three keys to the game for Michigan, Louisville

Player of the year Trey Burke is, quite simply, Michigan's most dominant basketball player in two decades.The Associated Press

The 2012-13 college basketball season comes to an end tonight, when Michigan (31-7) and Louisville (34-5) square off for the national title. Here are three things that could help determine who gets their One Shining Moment tonight:

1. Can Louisville force turnovers?

Kevin Ware, who became a national story when a freak accident caused a compound fracture in his leg in the middle of Louisville’s Elite 8 game, was one of the Cardinals’ best defenders on a team that was second in the country in turnovers forced and turnover margin. Without him on the court against Wichita State — an average team in terms of limiting their own mistakes — Louisville forced only four turnovers in the first 33 minutes before they got the Shockers to turn it over six times in the closing stretch to help the Cardinals win.

Michigan has a chance to become the first team all season to cough it up fewer than 10 times against Louisville. The Wolverines are the best team in the country at taking care of the ball, averaging just 9.4 turnovers per game. Though Louisville doesn’t need to force turnovers to win games, their defense is certainly built on it — they only pulled in 66.7 percent of available defensive rebounds, easily their worst defensive metric at 242nd in the country. If the Cardinals aren’t forcing turnovers and Michigan big man Mitch McGary continues his strong tournament (16.0 ppg, 11.6 rpg), it’ll take quite a shooting effort for Louisville to emerge victorious.

2. Russ Smith vs. Trey Burke

Two of the most electric scorers in the entire country, Louisville’s Russ Smith and Michigan’s Trey Burke will go head-to-head for the first time in their careers. Smith, a 6-foot-1 junior, is averaging 25 points per game in the tournament, though his 6-of-17 shooting performance (for 21 points) against Wichita State in the Final Four was his worst outing of the NCAAs.

Burke, Michigan’s consensus National Player of the Year, only scored seven against Syracuse — his second single-digit performance of the tournament after scoring at least 10 in every other game this year. It’s been a weird struggle for the nation’s best player in the tournament, as he’s shooting under 35 percent from the floor and had a very uncharacteristic 7-turnover performance against VCU in the third round.

If both Burke and Smith can shake off their sub-par Final Four outings, America could be in for a treat on Monday night.

3. Handle the Pressure

No matter what anybody on either team says, there is no more pressure-packed game than the NCAA Championship — and every player feels that spotlight, whether they want to or not. Both teams have shown the ability to thrive under pressure. Trey Burke hit a 3-pointer from beyond NBA range to send Michigan/Kansas into overtime in the Elite 8. Louisville saw one of its own suffer the worst sports injury on the hardcourt in decades and pulled together to beat Duke in its regional final.

But this is an entirely new level of pressure for these kids. Win, and you become instant legends at that school. Lose, and you’re just another group that couldn’t quite get it done.

Ultimately, both Michigan and Louisville have the talent to take home the national championship tonight; it’s going to come down to which group can handle the pressure, making both shots and smart decisions with the ball to take advantage of every opportunity. Michigan has the most efficient offense in the country. Louisville has the most efficient defense. Something’s gotta give.