2016 hangs over Paul Ryan's return to House

Paul Ryan may get a hero’s welcome when he returns to the House, but Speaker John Boehner still has to run the place.

How these two high-profile Republicans navigate the treacherous territory on taxes, spending and government debt in the coming months will go a long way toward defining both Ryan’s future as one of the party’s intellectual leaders and potential 2016 presidential candidate, as well Boehner’s own legacy as speaker of the House.

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Right now, they’re on the same page: No tax increases, and no retreat on conservative principles.

But the strategic and political realities for both men are different. Ryan has an incentive to remain a purist — even after his vice presidential loss, the Wisconsin Republican remains an icon in the conservative movement, and at just 42, has a bright future in the party.

Boehner, by contrast, has to deal with the grind-it-out realities of legislating and determine if he can cut a major fiscal deal with an even more liberal Democratic Senate and an triumphant President Barack Obama, who believes he has a second term mandate to force the kind of budget deal he wants, including raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

Ryan and Boehner spoke on Wednesday and had a “productive discussion,” according to GOP insiders.

“Paul Ryan in the House is stronger than ever,” said Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), who serves with him on the Budget Committee. “He’s got a big megaphone and we all have the greatest respect for him. He’s still one of the most articulate people on the budget and appropriations process, and the president still has to deal with the House.”

“Paul Ryan has some big decisions to make,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a friend and colleague. “But whatever they are, he’s established himself not only as ‘I’m the economic visionary,’ but a very important future player and presidential candidate.”

All of which could present a challenge - or opportunity - for Boehner and his leadership team. Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) are still the most powerful, if not most well known, Republican pols in the country. But they now have to see if there is room to cut a “grand bargain” with Obama and the Democrats without alienating Ryan and other 2016 hopefuls, such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). After losing seven seats on Election Day, Boehner needs to show he’s still got full control of his conservative, feisty majority.

Ryan, on the other hand, can’t sign onto any agreement that angers the tea party, anti-tax activist Grover Norquist or pro-business groups like the Club for Growth. They might be more important to Ryan’s future than Boehner & Co.

“He is not a free agent if he wants to run for president,” noted a senior House GOP aide of Ryan. “He has to look at everything from 10 different angles.”

Readers' Comments (83)

Romney's loss was an American repudiation of Ryan and the Republican backing of his budget. So what do the Republicans lean on as a prevaling message from America. It can't be "America wants us to move forward on the Ryan Budget."

It was more like idiots, selfish, self-centered people voted for someone who has failed for 4 years because he gives away free stuff. Since a real budget that truly addressed deficits can only reduce government benefits or tax deductions, it seems to fit that only those that don't care about the future of this country would vote for Obama because they don't want to give up their stuff as long as they can take it from other people.

I find it fascinating that less than two years President Obama said that no one has the courage to go after the part of the budget that matters, the 88% part (medicare, military, welfare, etc.). He said that was the only way a serious dent could be made. Ryan had that courage, and his reward was to be crucified by the media and Obama. That's when I knew what a phony Obama was.

Sooner or later we will go through the pain of those cuts, or we will watch the debt grow, government grow, until we can't afford it....

It is interesting to note how quite a few voters split their tickets to vote for socially liberal Democrats for the Senate and fiscally conservative Republicans for the House. The practical effect is an effectively libertarian Congress, confirming liberal judges in the Senate, and resisting tax increases in the House. For Ryan to be effective in keeping taxes and spending low, the House may have to yield to the Senate on some issue, such as immigration reform.

America is ignoring the deficit in the same way that the British avoided the growing power of Hitler in the 1930s. Ryan, like Churchill in that decade, has the courage to address the issue and propose a plan.

Ryan was repudiated nationally. He represents one little semi-rural district in Wisconsin. He is a perfect picture of how Congress elevates mediocre people to power. Ryan should sit at the back of the room and be quiet. He has done enough to America.