Connect with TRB

DRIVER LICENSING TESTS AS A PREDICTOR OF SUBSEQUENT VIOLATIONS

A total of 22,523 licensed drivers were allowed to accumulate driving experience for over four years from March 1969 until May, 1973, following which their records were analyzed for moving violations. A subpopulation of 5,848 drivers received at least one such violation during that time, and 1,048 had been involved in an accident. The violation types and cumulated violation points were compared with errors in driving knowledge as measured by Conley's written driver license examination. Chi-Square and Pearson Product Moment Correlation analysis yielded few patterns of significance where knowledge was a valid predictor of subsequent traffic violations at the 90% confidence level. Other potential predictors, such as sex and source of driver education, also provided fruitless. The overall conclusion was that there is no consistent pattern of knowledge, sex of the driver, or source of education to suggest predictability of moving traffic violations. These results point out the need to re-evaluate current pencil and paper tests as valid determinors of the readiness of an individual for a driver's license. /Author/