Pak attacks on India could increase in future, suggests book

The book also focuses on what should be India's secondary move to Pakistan's reaction.

Former India Ambassador to Russia P.S. Raghavan (right) with Toby Dalton, the author of the book Not War, Not Peace? and R ear Admiral R. Ganesh, in Bengaluru on Wednesday (Photo: DC)

Bengaluru: How do you motivate Pakistan to stop cross-border terrorism and change its behaviour towards nuclear attacks, especially when Pakistan army dictates the nuclear policies? Was India wrong in talking to a civilian government in Pakistan, while a military government controlled the nuclear policies?

These and many other existential dilemmas that face India when tackling its oldest enemy - Pakistan - consumed a battery of the city's best minds while discussing the probable solutions at the book launch of 'Not War, Not Peace? - Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-border Terrorism', co-authored by George Perkovich and Toby Dalton of the prestigious Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The book was released by former Indian Ambassador to Russia P.S Raghavan at an event co-hosted by the National Institute of Advanced Studies, and The Takshashila Foundation, on Wednesday.

Explaining the theme of the book, Mr Dalton, said, "From our association with high ranking officials we have observed there is a change in tone between the two countries. There is frustration and desire for punishment among Indian officials. The country needs strategic challenge to take action that would deter Pakistan to stop its attacks on India. Its focus is on the options before India and examines Pakistan's reactions, if India retaliated.

The book also focuses on what should be India's secondary move to Pakistan's reaction. "It does not make any recommendations," cautioned the author, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Programme at Carnegie. Experts on South and East Asia, the authors laid out the options before India if Pakistan continues with its cross-border attacks.

"Army, Air Force, covert operations, nuclear policies and non-violence compliance could motivate Islamabad to change its behaviour. However, short term solutions won't work and it's hard to sustain long term solutions. It's possible coercive options too won't deliver change in their behaviour. Hence, India can expect more attacks in the future," Mr Dalton said.

Saying there were no clear solutions to solve this problem, but a combination of capabilities and change in policies could build pressure on Pakistan to motivate them to change, he said India's response to cross-border terrorism include full scale war, air strikes and limited army operations, had been discussed
at length.