A wide open Run for Roses

The odds favor Curlin and Street Sense, but history would seem to weigh against them

April 29, 2007|By Neil Milbert, Tribune staff reporter

LOUISVILLE — Curlin is the 7-2 favorite and Street Sense is the 6-1 second choice in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pools.

Derby historians have a problem with that.

Although Curlin has won his three races by landslide margins, he didn't race as a 2-year-old. The last Kentucky Derby winner who didn't race as a 2-year-old was Apollo in 1882.

Street Sense won last fall's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs by 10 lengths. But since the inauguration of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, no winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.

There will be no shortage of competition Saturday for Curlin and Street Sense. A full field of 20 horses is anticipated, and there's also a long standby list of horses waiting to get into the starting lineup if there are defections before entries close Wednesday.

Earnings in graded stakes races will determine the field.

Here are snapshots of the 20 horses with the highest graded stakes earnings:

Street Sense ($1,482,000): Since winning the Juvenile, the colt owned by former Barrington resident Jim Tafel has won a photo-finish in the Tampa Bay Derby and lost a photo-finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. Trainer Carl Nafzger knows how to win the Derby; he did it with Unbridled in 1990.

Scat Daddy ($1,308,500): One of five Derby horses from trainer Todd Pletcher's powerhouse stable, he was the dominant 3-year-old in Florida, winning the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. His jockey, Edgar Prado, won last year's Derby on Barbaro.

Circular Quay ($1,116,134): Pletcher trains the stretch-running son of 1995 Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch. He hasn't run since scoring a compelling victory in the March 10 Louisiana Derby, but Pletcher believes the long layoff will work to his advantage.

Curlin ($780,000): Awesome is the word that best describes the three races he has run in his whirlwind career -- his combined margin of victory is 28 1/2 lengths. In his final prep, he won the $1 million Arkansas Derby by a record 10 1/2 lengths.

Nobiz Like Showbiz ($778,500): Barclay Tagg, who won the 2003 Derby and Preakness with Funny Cide, trains the winner of the Wood Memorial. It was the fourth victory of his six-race career, and both of his losses have been by less than a length.

Great Hunter ($752,000): His stock rose when he came from behind to win Santa Anita's Robert Lewis but fell when he finished fifth in the Blue Grass.

Stormello ($642,900): The most noteworthy conquest of his nine-race career came in the Dec. 16 Hollywood Futurity. He lost the Fountain of Youth by a nose and was fourth in the Florida Derby.

Dominican ($498,484): Earned his ticket to the Derby by edging Street Sense by a nose in the Blue Grass for his second victory in two starts this year.

Tiago ($450,000): The half-brother of long-shot 2005 Derby winner Giacomo won the Santa Anita Derby at odds of 29-1. Owner-breeders Jerry and Ann Moss, trainer John Shirreffs and jockey Mike Smith are the same foursome that won with Giacomo.

Cowtown Cat ($437,253): Moved up to Pletcher's "A" team by virtue of impressive back-to-back victories in the Gotham and Illinois Derby.

Hard Spun ($360,000): He's a blue blood who has won six races with authority. His only loss was a fourth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes.

Storm in May ($227,500): The Arkansas Derby runner-up has been out of the money only once in his 12-race career but has attracted scant attention.

Zanjero ($205,000): Like Curlin, he's trained by Steve Asmussen. Was a strong third in the Blue Grass.

Xchanger ($202,890): He was expected to be a Derby no-show but won last weekend's ungraded Federico Tesio Stakes.

Any Given Saturday ($177,969): Even though his graded stakes earnings are relatively low, Pletcher is high on the colt who lost to Street Sense by a nose in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Liquidity ($161,200): This son of Tiznow recorded the only victory of his seven-race career in his first start last September.