Below 2°C or 1.5°C depends on rapid action from both Annex I and non-Annex I countries

In this update the Climate Action Tracker has conducted a new analysis of the IPCC AR5 emissions database to evaluate the required level of global and regional action for 2020, 2025 and 2030 to limit warming to below 2°C or 1.5°C with a likely (66%) and high (85%) probability. A likely pathway for limiting warming below 2°C still has a one in three chance of exceeding this level, and possibly higher when uncertainties in the climate sensitivity and carbon cycle not included in the climate models are considered.