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It started with the scandal surrounding the provincial air ambulance service ORNGE, escalated with the news that the cancellation of two power plants may cost up to $1 billion, worsened as the fight grew with teacher unions, and climaxed with Premier Dalton McGuinty’s surprise resignation and decision to shut down the legislature.

It’s been so bad that some critics are now predicting the demise of the Liberals as a major force in Ontario.

But as beleaguered Liberal loyalists gather this weekend in Toronto to choose a new leader — and a new premier — there are signs of optimism, including widespread interest within the party sparked by the leadership race and recent polls that suggest the Liberals, despite all the negative news, remain within striking distance of the Conservatives and NDP.

There’s even the hope that with the right strategy and a new leader, likely Sandra Pupatello or Kathleen Wynne, the Liberals could find a road to victory and come from behind and win the next election, which may be held as early as this spring.

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Crazy idea?

Not when you recall that the Liberals, written off by many pundits, stormed back to win the 2011 election, falling one seat short of a majority victory.

Here, after consulting with top Liberal campaign strategists, is a seven-step recovery program for the new leader and the coming election;

1. Toss out the old: Starting next week, the new leader needs to signal that the McGuinty era is over and renewal has begun by demoting many older, long-serving cabinet ministers and promoting new, younger ministers to the government’s front benches. It’s crucial to establish the notion of generational change in the party, especially with former Liberal voters disillusioned with McGuinty’s team.

2. Set a new agenda: The biggest challenge for the new leader will be to set a very different course than the one pursued by McGuinty. The focus can’t only be about slashing programs because Tory Leader Tim Hudak will top any cuts the Liberals propose. The new agenda should focus on issues important not just to older voters, such as health care, but to young voters, from jobs to post-secondary education.

3. Buy time: The longer the new leader can avoid an election, the better the chance of seeing McGuinty’s image fade and cementing a picture in voters’ minds of a fresh team that can manage the economy and govern effectively. That means working with the NDP to ensure quick passage of a new spring budget. Unlike Hudak, who is itching for an election, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath seems to have no stomach for an early vote. Her party has few candidates in place and is far from election-ready.

4. Make peace with teachers: There can be no success for the Liberals as long as teachers continue to disrupt schools. The NDP will benefit from a lengthy labour dispute because many union members will abandon the Liberals and campaign for Horwath. Hudak also will benefit by attracting voters who want to get tough on teachers and unions in general.

5. Embrace the McGuinty record: Despite a bad final year, McGuinty has achieved a remarkable record of success over the past nine years, implementing progressive programs in areas from the environment to taxes and early childhood education. To ignore that record would be a slap in the face of voters who long called for such initiatives.

6. Attack Hudak: The good news for Liberals is that Hudak has moved far to the right with calls for cuts to welfare recipients, fewer government workers and anti-union legislation. Historically, winning parties in Ontario have occupied the political centre, not the extreme right or left. The Liberals need to brand Hudak as a clone of Mike Harris, the ex-premier who is still reviled by most Ontarians.

7. Prepare to fight dirty: The Tories are set to launch negative attack ads against the new Liberal leader, regardless of who wins, such as depicting them as supporters of “job-killing” initiatives. It’s a pre-election strategy used successfully by the federal Conservatives against Liberal leaders Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff. Both Dion and Ignatieff admit they underestimated the impact of such ads and wished they had fought back quicker and harder with their own attack ads. It’s a hard lesson the new Liberal leader needs to take to heart.

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