McGinnis: Oscar predictions for 2015

This is absolutely a two horse race, as the closest runner up to the two lead candidates (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”) is barely within shouting distance. Richard Linklater’s ambitious, bold and visionary film chronicling the growth of a young man was long considered the front-runner, but as award season has progressed the tide has changed. Hollywood found a candidate about its favorite subject — itself — and the landslide of awards being showered on “Birdman” seems to indicate it has its beak in front.

The temptation is to say that these two directors’ chances are completely tied to the Best Picture chances of their films, as the race between Iñárritu and Linklater is as close as their films’ is. But recent history has seen numerous Best Picture-winners’ directors get snubbed in their own category, and with two respected films neck-and-neck, voters may feel giving one Best Director and the other Best Picture is a good compromise. My gut, though, says it’s Iñárritu’s year, however much a Linklater win would delight me.

Easily the closest of any acting race, as Keaton seemed a lock early in Oscar season, though ironically his odds wavered as his film’s chances skyrocketed. It’s still not out of the realm of possibility for Keaton to pull this one out, but Eddie Redmayne has a lot of factors that Hollywood loves (the Rising Star factor, the He-Played-a-Real-Person factor, etc.). Add in that “Birdman” will probably win at least one bigger prize than this one, and voters’ desire to spread the love means Redmayne is your man.

Moving into the “foregone conclusion” section of this year’s awards, we come to Julianne Moore winning her first Oscar for her gripping portrayal of a woman with early-onset-Alzheimer’s. Only Reese Witherspoon’s lonely hiker has a chance of upsetting Moore’s night, and when you consider that Witherspoon already has an Oscar, that is clearly a very, very slim chance.

Another “race” in name only. Edward Norton’s temperamental method actor might have had a chance in any other year. But the brilliant JK Simmons delivered huge in a role that was absolutely essential to the success of “Whiplash,” and Simmons has been so good for so long that giving him an Oscar feels long overdue.

Really you could put any of the other four nominees in here vs. Patricia Arquette and the odds wouldn’t change. Arquette’s single mother was the emotional core of “Boyhood,” and given how it’s looking like the movie may not take many prizes outside of this category, her win will be seen as an acknowledgement film’s greatness.

PREDICTION: Patricia Arquette

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Birdman vs. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Odds seem to favor “Birdman” slightly, a safe bet given how the big categories are heading in that direction. But screenplay is where Oscar likes to reward challenging, unusual, even quirky work from respected creative minds (both of Tarantino’s Oscars came from this category). That description fits Wes Anderson to a T, and if he is to be shut out higher up on this list, then this will be seen as his consolation prize.

PREDICTION: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Imitation Game vs. Whiplash

Wildly different films here, but a solid front-runner in Graham Moore’s work, telling the complex and tragic tale of Alan Turing, in a manner that unfolds much like Turing’s famous machine — disparate pieces that seem to have little connection that eventually lock into place, revealing a meaningful whole. Since “Imitation” will likely be shut out the rest of the night, the Academy will want to honor it somewhere.

PREDICTION: The Imitation Game

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Big Hero 6 vs. How to Train Your Dragon 2

The absence of “LEGO Movie” makes this category a little more clear, though its omission is no less baffling. “Dragon”‘s victory at the Golden Globes seems to indicate it (somewhat surprisingly) has the momentum, though no one would be shocked if “Big Hero 6″ pulled the upset.

The Gold Knight: Final predictions for the 2015 Oscars

HOLLYWOOD, Calif. — When the golden envelopes are opened tonight at the Dolby Theatre, there could be more than one surprise awaiting the audience at the 87th Academy Awards.

Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):

Final Tally:

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”: 5 out of 9

“Boyhood”: 4 out of 6

“Whiplash”: 2 out of 5

“American Sniper”: 1 out of 6

“Birdman”: 1 out of 9

“The Imitation Game”: 1 out of 8

“Interstellar”: 1 out of 5

“The Theory of Everything”: 1 out of 5

“Foxcatcher”: 0 out of 4

“Mr. Turner”: 0 out of 4

And the nominees are…

Best Picture

“American Sniper”

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” spoiler

“Boyhood”

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

“The Imitation Game”

“Selma”

“The Theory of Everything”

“Whiplash”

Best Director

Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Alejandro González Iñárritu, “Birdman” spoiler

Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”

Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”

Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”

Best Writing — Adapted Screenplay

“American Sniper”

“The Imitation Game”

“Inherent Vice”

“The Theory of Everything”

“Whiplash” spoiler

Best Writing — Original Screenplay

“Birdman” spoiler

“Boyhood”

“Foxcatcher”

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

“Nightcrawler”

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”

Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”

Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”

Michael Keaton, “Birdman” spoiler

Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”

Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”

Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”

Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”

Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Robert Duvall, “The Judge”

Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”

Edward Norton, “Birdman”

Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”

J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”

Laura Dern, “Wild”

Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”

Emma Stone, “Birdman” spoiler (small)

Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”

Best Animated Feature Film

“Big Hero 6″ spoiler

“The Boxtrolls”

“How to Train Your Dragon 2″

“Song of the Sea”

“The Tale of The Princess Kaguya”

Best Cinematography

“Birdman,” Emmanuel Lubezki

“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Robert Yeoman

“Ida,” Lukasz Zal & Ryszard Lenczewski

“Mr. Turner,” Dick Pope

“Unbroken,” Roger Deakins

Best Costume Design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

“Inherent Vice”

“Into the Woods”

“Maleficent”

“Mr. Turner”

Best Documentary — Feature

“CITIZENFOUR”

“Finding Vivian Maier”

“Last Days in Vietnam”

“The Salt of the Earth”

“Virunga” spoiler

Best Documentary — Short Subject

“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1″

“Joanna” spoiler

“Our Curse”

“The Reaper (La Parka)”

“White Earth”

Best Film Editing

“American Sniper”

“Boyhood”

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

“The Imitation Game”

“Whiplash” spoiler

Best Foreign Language Film

“Ida” (Poland)

“Leviathan” (Russia)

“Tangerines” (Estonia)

“Timbuktu” (Mauritania)

“Wild Tales” (Argentina) spoiler

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Foxcatcher”

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

“Guardians of the Galaxy” spoiler

Best Music — Original Score

“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Alexandre Desplat

“The Imitation Game,” Alexandre Desplat

“Interstellar,” Hans Zimmer

“Mr. Turner,” Gary Yershon

“The Theory of Everything,” Jóhann Jóhannsson spoiler

Best Music — Original Song

“Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”

“Everything is Awesome” from “The LEGO Movie”

“Glory” from “Selma”

“Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”

“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me” spoiler

Best Production Design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

“The Imitation Game”

“Interstellar”

“Into the Woods”

“Mr. Turner”

Best Short Film — Animated

“The Bigger Picture”

“The Dam Keeper” spoiler

“Feast”

“Me and My Moulton”

“A Single Life”

Best Short Film — Live Action

“Aya”

“Boogaloo and Graham” spoiler

“Butter Lamp”

“Parvaneh”

“The Phone Call”

Best Sound Editing

“American Sniper”

“Birdman” spoiler

“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies”

“Interstellar”

“Unbroken”

Best Sound Mixing

“American Sniper”

“Birdman” spoiler

“Interstellar”

“Unbroken”

“Whiplash”

Best Visual Effects

“Captain America: The Winter Soldier”

“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” spoiler

“Guardians of the Galaxy”

“Interstellar”

“X-Men: Days of Future Past”

The 87th Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2014, will be presented on Sunday, Feb. 22, 2015, at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center, and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 225 countries worldwide.

The Gold Knight: Final 2014 Oscars predictions

HOLLYWOOD, Calif. — The Oscar envelopes will be opened on March 2 and the winners who are announced could be surprising. In a typical year, most of the major categories would seem to be sewn up, and statuettes practically engraved already — this is only the case for a few of these categories. But the crop of films from 2013 has provided an intriguing Oscar race, which became more and more competitive as guild awards were announced.

The biggest category of them all, Best Picture, still seems to be a dead heat between “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity.” The latter could be the big winner of the night, with the most statuettes awarded, but the former may be the big spoiler.

One thing is for sure, however: the race isn’t over until those gold envelopes are opened on Oscar Sunday. Here is my attempt at some final predictions for the 86th Academy Awards. (View my colleague Jeff McGinnis’ predictions here.)

Final Tally prediction:

“Gravity” with seven awards, “12 Years a Slave” with three and “Dallas Buyers Club” with two. “Frozen” and “The Great Gatsby” with two.

McGinnis: Oscar Predictions 2014: ’12 Years a Slave’ favorite to take top prize

Really, this is a two-horse race between Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong’o — two very important roles in wildly different movies. Lawrence was widely credited with completely stealing “American Hustle” with her small but crucial performance, the kind of attention-grabber Oscar loves to honor. But she just won last year, and the voters don’t often give it to the same person two years in a row. (Tom Hanks, who won for “Philadelphia” and “Forrest Gump” back-to-back, is the notable modern exception.) This leaves Nyong’o open to be honored for her powerful work, and I figure the Academy will want to honor “12 Years a Slave” somewhere in the acting awards.

PREDICTION: Lupita Nyong’o

Best Supporting Actor

This one’s more cut-and-dried. Jared Leto has been talked up as the presumed front-runner since “Dallas Buyers Club” opened, and nothing’s shaken him off the lead yet. His performance as a transgender woman is exactly the kind of unexpected turn Oscar loves, and he’s at a stage of his career where the award would be seen as a coronation and welcoming to A-list status. Michael Fassbender of “12 Years a Slave” has a shot at being a spoiler, but it’s a long shot at best.

PREDICTION: Jared Leto

Best Actress:

What a strange ride this category has been. Back in October, some presumed the isolated tension of “Gravity” was going to spell another gold statue for Sandra Bullock when all was said and done. Then, as award season began to ramp up, Bullock’s chances dimmed and Cate Blanchett’s work in “Blue Jasmine” began to take center stage. Now, as controversy swirls around director Woody Allen once more, have Blanchett’s chances been soiled by her proximity to the filmmaker, leaving the door open for Bullock or (more likely) Amy Adams to upset? Probably not.

PREDICTION: Cate Blanchett

Best Actor:

Maybe the tightest race of the acting categories. An argument can be made for both Leonardo DiCaprio’s bombastic trader in “The Wolf of Wall Street” and Chiwetel Ejiofor’s imprisoned free man in “12 Years a Slave” to spoil here. But the stars have been aligning for Matthew McConaughey for a while now, with a movie that people like (which almost certainly won’t win in any bigger categories), a dramatic physical transformation (major Oscar bait) and a cool redemption story to boot (he’s not doing dumb romantic comedies now!). DiCaprio may still upset, but it’s looking less likely the closer to Oscar night we get.

PREDICTION: Matthew McConaughey

Best Director:

We all know the story: Alfonso Cuaron won the Director’s Guild award for “Gravity,” which is the absolute best predictor of all the major award categories, and usually a solid indication of Best Picture, to boot. Sure, last year the two awards didn’t synch, but that’s only because the directors forgot to nominate Ben Affleck for the Oscar, so the DGA was a consolation prize. (The Oscar itself went to Ang Lee, in an upset over Steven Spielberg.) This is most probably Cuaron’s year, though Steve McQueen’s work on “12 Years a Slave” is still a possible contender.

PREDICTION: Alfonso Cuaron

Best Picture:

Here’s where it gets really interesting. After initial buzz for “Gravity” when it opened, the presumptive front-runner has been “12 Years a Slave” for most of the Oscar season. Then, buzz started building around “American Hustle,” leading it to be considered a solid spoiler candidate. Then came the backlash against “American Hustle,” with many pundits dismissing it as overrated, leading to its chances seemingly receding. Now, thanks to the Director’s Guild going for Cuaron, we’re right back where we started: “Gravity” looks like a serious contender again.

But through it all, “12 Years a Slave” has remained as the steady and unshakable leader of the pack, and with good reason. It’s a powerful, important film which addresses head-on the most horrific stain on America’s soul, by giving one of slavery’s victims a face and a story for a modern audience. As “Schindler’s List” did for the Holocaust, “12 Years” takes its viewers and makes them confront evil head-on. And, like “Schindler’s,” “12 Years” will take home the big prize.

The 2014 Oscar Ballot Prediction Challenge

Outguess TFP Star’s Oscarologists in their predictions and you will be entered to win an official Academy Awards ceremony poster. If no one outguesses the team, the entrant with the most categories predicted correctly will win. In case of a tie, the win will go to the entrant who best predicts which film will take home the most Oscars. One entry per person.

Fill out and submit your Oscars Ballot (below) by 5 p.m. EST on March 2, 2014.

UPDATE: Congratulations to Anita E. and James S. for winning our Oscar Ballot Prediction Challenge, with 22 out of 24 categories predicted correctly. Both also answered the tie breaker question correctly, along with a random drawing for the top prize: an Oscars ceremony poster.

Don’t forget to watch the 86th Academy Awards on Sunday, March 2, to find out the winners. The Oscars will air locally at 8:30 p.m. on 13abc. Red carpet coverage begins at 7 p.m.

Retirement Guys: Be an Olympian of Investing

The Winter Games in Sochi are nearing but for many, especially the Athletes, this is the end not the beginning. The athletes, coaches and event planners have been put in hundreds, if not thousands of hours of preparation time for the 2014 Olympic Games.

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It was 90 years ago, in the small town of Chamonix, France where the first Winter Games took place. The two day event featured 17 countries competing in 9 different sporting events. The Olympic Games have come a long way in almost a century. This year, in Sochi, we will watch in awe as 88 countries and an estimated 2,500 Athletes will compete over 18 days. As opening day ceremonies start this Friday, remember a lot of what makes these Athletes great can be applied to how we can become better investors.

The Technical Score is what the judges decide to determine who wins for some of the 15 games being played this year. Over the years many scandals and controversies were uncovered which has resulted in better rules and regulations. Luckily for the athletes, not only are there several judges but systems have been implemented to make scoring more unbiased and fair. Many investors also keep a Technical Score when it comes to investing by looking at their performance in comparison to the stock and bond indexes. The problem for many investors is keeping score can easily get distorted if an investor doesn’t look at similar indexes to compare results. One good website to use to see how your investments are doing is www.morningstar.com. All an investor needs to do is type in the name or the ticker symbol of their investments and the results come right up. We usually recommend to investors to look at the results over a 5 year time frame.

The Final Score in some sports, like ice hockey, is all the matters. Other times the Overall Score allows the judges to take extras like choreography, creativity, artistry, emotional and physical involvement into consideration. If you ask any Olympian who is competing in this year’s Sochi Games, most would say that their end goal would be to walk away with a gold, silver or bronze medal. It’s inevitable that the athlete wants to win. We, as investors, are competitive too. It’s natural to measure how well your investments have been performing. Others try and look at the overall picture. This requires the investor to have a well-crafted plan for tax planning, estate planning, and asset protection. We, here at the Retirement Guys, recommend using both approaches by using a well balanced investment approach that combines results with a coordinated comprehensive plan.

Beware of unstable predictions. Predications are already out concerning the Sochi 2014 Games. The experts are already saying how many medals each Country will win and where upsets may be. You name it! I bet a predication is on the Internet or the nightly news on who is expected to win. I am sure the Athletes read those predications as well, but I bet most don’t care. Instead they keep training, stay focused, and listen to their coach.

Like those predictions for the Olympic Games, this year investors will also be bombarded with investment predictions. In fact, 196 million results came up when I Googled “2014 Investment Predictions.” A major mistake investors often make is allowing that noise to drive their emotions and end up making poor investments decisions. Instead of letting those predictions get in your way to success in 2014, act like an Olympian and keep planning, stay focused, and listen to your financial coach.

To celebrate this year’s Olympics, our company has rented out the Maumee Indoor Theater on Friday, March 21st at 6:30 PM. We will be showing the movie The Miracle. This classic true show is about the 1980’s Olympics when a player turned coach, lead the American team on to beat Russia. You can request up to 4 complimentary tickets. To request tickets, call our office at 419-842-0550.

For more information about The Retirement Guys, tune in every Saturday at 1 PM on 1370 WSPD or visit www.retirementguysnetwork.com. Securities and Investment Advisory Services are offered through NEXT Financial Group Inc., Member FINRA / SIPC. NEXT Financial Group, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice. The Retirement Guys are not an affiliate of NEXT Financial Group. The office is at 1700 Woodlands Drive, Suite 100, Maumee, OH 43537. 419-842-0550

The Gold Knight: Final predictions for the Oscars

The Oscar envelopes will be opened on Sunday, Feb. 24, and the winners who are announced could be surprising. In a typical year, most of the major categories would seem to be sewn up, and statuettes practically engraved already. But the crop of films from 2012 has provided a very intriguing Oscar race, which began in September with various film festivals around the world.

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What has been different with 2012 is that there are so many good films from which guilds and organizations such as the Academy could choose. “Lincoln” seemed to be the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture, even before the film was released. After a late “Argo” surge, the film by Ben Affleck seems to be the new front runner. But how many Oscars will the latter film win? That’s a good question.

One thing is for sure, however: the race isn’t over until those gold envelopes are opened on Oscar Sunday. Here is my attempt at some final predictions for the 85th Academy Awards.

A Columbus-based data science firm is getting into the Oscar predicting game.

Illustration by James A. Molnar.

Using data and algorithms, a team at Farsite is putting its skills to the test for the biggest awards show of the year.

The team launched FarsiteForecast.com on Jan. 10, the day nominations were announced for the 85th Academy Awards. The site includes predicted winners in the top categories, along with the odds of each winning.

Leading the effort is Conor Gaughan, chief strategy officer at Farsite.

Writing multiple posts each week, Gaughan uses to compare topics like box office gross with Oscar success and ties between political themes with Best Picture nominees.

“It’s a fun, different way to use all of the amazing data that’s out there as it applies to the entertainment world,” Gaughan said in an interview with Toledo Free Press Star.

“When we looked at the landscape for 2013 and what was coming up … the Oscars is such a pivotal pop culture event,” he said. “We thought what better way to talk about the media and entertainment industry and pop culture trend … and apply this really important, burgeoning technology around data science to help people learn about data science in a way that’s fun and interesting.”

The races

In the lead for Best Picture is Ben Affleck’s film “Argo,” according to Farsite’s data as of press time (see charts to the right for full predictions).

Gaughan said another Oscar race is also interesting.

“The Best Supporting Actor race is turning out to be one of the closest,” he said. “Although, I think when we look back after the Oscars, folks are really going to find the Best Picture race to be one of the most interesting we’ve had in the last 10 or so years.”

Graphs courtesy FarsiteForecast.com.

“Lincoln” was originally seen as the Oscar front-runner, especially after Affleck was not nominated for Best Director.

However, Gaughan points to recent entertainment guilds that have honored Affleck and “Argo,” showing a swell of support for the director and his film.

“Best Picture has been the most active race, particularly following the last two weeks,” Gaughan said, referring to recent wins for “Argo” at the Producers Guild Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards and Directors Guild Awards.

“From early in November through a week and a half ago even two weeks ago, ‘Lincoln’ has stayed pretty consistent — not just as a leader, but pretty consistent from a probability perspective — in the race leadership role,” Gaughan said. “It wasn’t really until, frankly, the Producers Guild Awards that ‘Argo’ had a spike.”

The forecast for an “Argo” win is 42.1 percent, with “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Amour” rounding out the top three (“Lincoln” has 9 percent).

Other races Farsite is predicting include the directing and acting categories. Steven Spielberg is leading the directing race with 81.8 percent. Daniel Day-Lewis (Best Actor), Jennifer Lawrence (Best Actress) and Anne Hathaway (Best Supporting Actress) look poised to win their respective categories by large margins. In the Best Supporting Actor category, Christoph Waltz has a 1.4 percent lead over Tommy Lee Jones.

Farsite

Founded in 2007, Farsite works in a number of industries and uses data to help companies improve their bottom lines, said CEO Michael Gold.

Michael Gold.

“First and foremost, we’re a data science firm so our company takes big data and builds a predictive and advanced analytic model to empower companies to make decisions to improve revenue [and] decrease cost,” said Gold, 32, who has been with the company since its founding.

Gold said predicting the Oscars was Gaughan’s idea; it was a way to demonstrate Farsite’s value to the entertainment industry.

“When I came on board to Farsite and joined Michael’s team, one of the things I wanted to do was help bridge these two worlds,” said Gaughan, 32, whose background is in the media and entertainment business. “This seemed like the perfect project to do it.”

Many have asked what the “secret sauce” is to Farsite’s predictions.

Conor Gaughan.

“We have 80 years of movie data and 40 years of Oscars-specific data,” Gold said. “A part of that is who has won in the past, total nominations.” Real-time feedback and buzz is also used, he said.

“Sometimes, momentums shift throughout an awards season,” Gold said. “I think we’re definitely seeing that this year between ‘Argo’ and ‘Lincoln.’”

Once the Oscars are over, Gaughan said Farsite may try to tackle other projects such as March Madness.

Gold said forecasting the box office take for movies would also be coming up on the site.

The trend

Farsite is not the only company doing data-driven predicting.

Most recently, New York Times blogger and statistician Nate Silver correctly predicted the results of the 2012 presidential election, after a year full of statistics, polling and number crunching.

Now the team at Farsite is looking to see how it fares come Oscar Sunday.

However, an Oscars expert cautions about the use of stats to predict the race.

“They only take you so far,” said Sasha Stone, founder of AwardsDaily.com; Stone has covered the Oscars race season-by-season for more than decade.

“Every weird year carries its own precedent,” she said in an email. “Like you can’t say, ‘No way will “Argo” win because it will have to make history three different ways to do so.’ But if it does make history it becomes its own stat.

“History around the awards race has evolved so dramatically that you really can’t compare this year with even 10 years ago,” she said. “Human emotion is always unpredictable at the end of the day.”

On Feb. 24, Oscar fans and Farsite will learn how predictable the Oscars can be.

The 2013 Oscar Ballot Prediction Challenge

Outguess TFP Star’s Oscarologists in their predictions and you will be entered to win two movie tickets to Rave Levis Commons and a $50 gift certificate to Blue Pacific Grill at Levis Commons. If no one outguesses the team, the entrant with the most categories predicted correctly will win. In case of a tie, the win will go to the entrant

who best predicts which film will take home the most Oscars. One entry per person.