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The combination of heavy job losses in the public service sector and a less-than-robust economy, is expected to put a damper on Christmas retail sales this year.

The traditional kickoff to the Christmas shopping season happens at the end of this week.

Bank St. BIA director Gerry LePage says his neck of the woods is typically among the most popular with public service workers.

“I expect we’re going to see shopping on the conservative side this year,” he said. “It’s the economy. Every time you turn on the TV it’s doom and gloom and I think that affects people.”

He says the 19,300 public service job cuts and “affected” notices have created “a lot of tension” and put people “in savings mode.”

It’s not the first time LePage and other BIA directors have had to weather this type of storm. The early 1990s saw the government slash around 15,000 PS jobs. Couple that with what LePage calls “massive decentralization” during those years — as suburban big-box stores became popular and prolific, and people began moving to newly constructed neighbourhoods formerly beyond the fringe of the city.

Overall, Carleton University-based Sprott School of Business prof Ian Lee says although the outlook isn’t great, it’s not bleak either.

“We’re not going to set any records,” he said. “It won’t be the rip-roaring growth we saw in the 90s, but it will be better than in the U.S.”

The difference between us and them is down to stability, and optimism.

The other silver lining in a otherwise blue Christmas is that fewer Ottawans are expected to travel south of the border this year for their Christmas shopping.

“There’s still bargains to be had,” he said. “But not across the board.”

Lee said “easily-comparable items” like consumer electronics — things with brands and model numbers — are easy to price-check. He says prices on these kids of gifts will be “even-steven” in both countries.

But, that’s not the case with harder-to-compare gifts like clothing, shoes, suits, sporting goods and textiles.

He said the difference in prices — on average — between Canada and the U.S. was about 25% cheaper there in 2002, 20% in 2007 and about 15% now.

Lee said the Christmas shopping season will start noticeably this weekend — not just for gifts, but lights, paper and ornaments.

“They’re pushing it earlier and earlier each year,” Lee said. “There’s more local spillover because a lot of people watch American TV.”