Introduction. Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report

Transcription

1 Introduction Climate Change 14 Synthesis Report

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3 Introduction 1 Introduction 35

4 Introduction Introduction Introduction The Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides an overview of the state of knowledge concerning the science of climate change, emphasizing new results since the publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 7. The SYR synthesizes the main findings of the AR5 based on contributions from Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis), Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) and Working Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change), plus two additional IPCC reports (Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation and Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation). The AR5 SYR longer report is divided into four topics. Topic 1 (Observed Changes and their Causes) focuses on observational evidence for a changing climate, the impacts caused by this change and the human contributions to it. Topic (Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts) assesses projections of future climate change and the resultant projected impacts and risks. Topic 3 (Future Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development) considers adaptation and mitigation as complementary strategies for reducing and managing the risks of climate change. Topic 4 (Adaptation and Mitigation) describes individual adaptation and mitigation options and policy approaches. It also addresses integrated responses that link mitigation and adaptation with other societal objectives. The challenges of understanding and managing risks and uncertainties are important themes in this report. See Box 1 (Risk and the Management of an Uncertain Future) and Box (Communicating the Degree of Certainty in Assessment Findings). This report includes information relevant to Article of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Box Introduction.1 Risk and the Management of an Uncertain Future Climate change exposes people, societies, economic sectors and ecosystems to risk. Risk is the potential for consequences when something of value is at stake and the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. {WGII SPM Background Box SPM., WGIII.1, SYR Glossary} Risks from climate change impacts arise from the interaction between hazard (triggered by an event or trend related to climate change), vulnerability (susceptibility to harm) and exposure (people, assets or ecosystems at risk). Hazards include processes that range from brief events, such as severe storms, to slow trends, such as multi-decade droughts or multi-century sea level rise. Vulnerability and exposure are both sensitive to a wide range of social and economic processes, with possible increases or decreases depending on development pathways. Risks and co-benefits also arise from policies that aim to mitigate climate change or to adapt to it. (1.5) Risk is often represented as the probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the magnitude of the consequences if these events occur. Therefore, high risk can result not only from high probability outcomes but also from low probability outcomes with very severe consequences. This makes it important to assess the full range of possible outcomes, from low probability tail outcomes to very likely outcomes. For example, it is unlikely that global mean sea level will rise by more than one meter in this century, but the consequence of a greater rise could be so severe that this possibility becomes a significant part of risk assessment. Similarly, low confidence but high consequence outcomes are also policy relevant; for instance the possibility that the response of Amazon forest could substantially amplify climate change merits consideration despite our currently imperfect ability to project the outcome. (.4, Table.3) {WGI Table 13.5, WGII SPM A-3, 4.4, Box 4-3, WGIII Box 3-9, SYR Glossary} Risk can be understood either qualitatively or quantitatively. It can be reduced and managed using a wide range of formal or informal tools and approaches that are often iterative. Useful approaches for managing risk do not necessarily require that risk levels can be accurately quantified. Approaches recognizing diverse qualitative values, goals and priorities, based on ethical, psychological, cultural or social factors, could increase the effectiveness of risk management. {WGII 1.1.,.4,.5, 19.3, WGIII.4,.5, 3.4} 36

5 Introduction Box Introduction. Communicating the Degree of Certainty in Assessment Findings An integral feature of IPCC reports is the communication of the strength of and uncertainties in scientific understanding underlying assessment findings. Uncertainty can result from a wide range of sources. Uncertainties in the past and present are the result of limitations of available measurements, especially for rare events, and the challenges of evaluating causation in complex or multi-component processes that can span physical, biological and human systems. For the future, climate change involves changing likelihoods of diverse outcomes. Many processes and mechanisms are well understood, but others are not. Complex interactions among multiple climatic and non-climatic influences changing over time lead to persistent uncertainties, which in turn lead to the possibility of surprises. Compared to past IPCC reports, the AR5 assesses a substantially larger knowledge base of scientific, technical and socio-economic literature. {WGI 1.4, WGII SPM A-3, 1.1., WGIII.3} Introduction The IPCC Guidance Note on Uncertainty a defines a common approach to evaluating and communicating the degree of certainty in findings of the assessment process. Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. In many cases, a synthesis of evidence and agreement supports an assignment of confidence, especially for findings with stronger agreement and multiple independent lines of evidence. The degree of certainty in each key finding of the assessment is based on the type, amount, quality and consistency of evidence (e.g., data, mechanistic understanding, theory, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement. The summary terms for evidence are: limited, medium or robust. For agreement, they are low, medium or high. Levels of confidence include five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high, and are typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence. The likelihood, or probability, of some well-defined outcome having occurred or occurring in the future can be described quantitatively through the following terms: virtually certain, 99 1% probability; extremely likely, 95 1%; very likely, 9 1%; likely, 66 1%; more likely than not, >5 1%; about as likely as not, 33 66%; unlikely, 33%; very unlikely, 1%; extremely unlikely, 5%; and exceptionally unlikely, 1%. Additional terms (extremely likely, 95 1%; more likely than not, >5 1%; more unlikely than likely, <5%; and extremely unlikely, 5%) may also be used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely. Unless otherwise indicated, findings assigned a likelihood term are associated with high or very high confidence. Where appropriate, findings are also formulated as statements of fact without using uncertainty qualifiers. {WGI SPM B, WGII Background Box SPM.3, WGIII.1} a Mastrandrea, M.D., C.B. Field, T.F. Stocker, O. Edenhofer, K.L. Ebi, D.J. Frame, H. Held, E. Kriegler, K.J. Mach, P.R. Matschoss, G.-K. Plattner, G.W. Yohe and F.W. Zwiers, 1: Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva, Switzerland, 4 pp. 37

6 Introduction

7 Introduction 1 Observed Changes and their Causes 39

8 Topic 1 Observed Changes and their Causes Topic 1: Observed Changes and their Causes Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems. Topic 1 focuses on observational evidence of a changing climate, the impacts caused by this change and the human contributions to it. It discusses observed changes in climate (1.1) and external influences on climate (forcings), differentiating those forcings that are of anthropogenic origin, and their contributions by economic sectors and greenhouse gases (GHGs) (1.). Section 1.3 attributes observed climate change to its causes and attributes impacts on human and natural systems to climate change, determining the degree to which those impacts can be attributed to climate change. The changing probability of extreme events and their causes are discussed in Section 1.4, followed by an account of exposure and vulnerability within a risk context (1.5) and a section on adaptation and mitigation experience (1.6) Observed changes in the climate system Based on multiple independent analyses of measurements, it is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed and the lower stratosphere has cooled since the mid-th century. There is medium confidence in the rate of change and its vertical structure in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. {WGI SPM B.1,.4.4} Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 195s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen Atmosphere Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth s surface than any preceding decade since 185. The period from 1983 to 1 was very likely the warmest 3-year period of the last 8 years in the Northern Hemisphere, where such assessment is possible (high confidence) and likely the warmest 3-year period of the last 14 years (medium confidence). {WGI.4.3, 5.3.5} The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend show a warming of.85 [.65 to 1.6] C over the period 188 to 1, for which multiple independently produced datasets exist. The total increase between the average of the period and the 3 1 period is.78 [.7 to.85] C, based on the single longest dataset available. For the longest period when calculation of regional trends is sufficiently complete (191 to 1), almost the entire globe has experienced surface warming (Figure 1.1). {WGI SPM B.1,.4.3} In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, the globally averaged surface temperature exhibits substantial decadal and interannual variability (Figure 1.1). Due to this natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998 1;.5 [.5 to.15] C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951 1;.1 [.8 to.14] C per decade; see Box 1.1). {WGI SPM B.1,.4.3} Confidence in precipitation change averaged over global land areas since 191 is low prior to 1951 and medium afterwards. Averaged over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere, precipitation has likely increased since 191 (medium confidence before and high confidence after 1951). For other latitudes area-averaged long-term positive or negative trends have low confidence (Figure 1.1). {WGI SPM B.1, Figure SPM.,.5.1} 1.1. Ocean Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 9% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 1 (high confidence) with only about 1% stored in the atmosphere (Figure 1.). On a global scale, the ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed by.11 [.9 to.13] C per decade over the period 1971 to 1. It is virtually certain that the upper ocean ( 7 m) warmed from 1971 to 1, and it likely warmed between the 187s and It is likely that the ocean warmed from 7 to m from 1957 to 9 and from 3 m to the bottom for the period 199 to 5 (Figure 1.). {WGI SPM B., 3., Box 3.1} It is very likely that regions of high surface salinity, where evaporation dominates, have become more saline, while regions of low salinity, where precipitation dominates, have become fresher since the 195s. These regional trends in ocean salinity provide indirect evidence for changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans and thus for changes in the global water cycle (medium confidence). There is no observational evidence of a long-term trend in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). {WGI SPM B.,.5, 3.3, 3.4.3, 3.5, 3.6.3} Ranges in square brackets indicate a 9% uncertainty interval unless otherwise stated. The 9% uncertainty interval is expected to have a 9% likelihood of covering the value that is being estimated. Uncertainty intervals are not necessarily symmetric about the corresponding best estimate. A best estimate of that value is also given where available. 4

9 Observed Changes and their Causes Topic 1 (a) Temperature ( C) relative to Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly Annual average Decadal average Year (c) (d) Sea ice extent (million km ) Global average sea level (m) relative to Sea ice extent Arctic (July - August - September) Antarctic (February) Year Global mean sea level change Year Introduction 1 (b) Observed change in surface temperature (e) Observed change in annual precipitation over land ( C) (mm/yr per decade) Figure 1.1 Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate system. (a) Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomalies (relative to the mean of 1986 to 5 period, as annual and decadal averages) with an estimate of decadal mean uncertainty included for one data set (grey shading). {WGI Figure SPM.1, Figure.; a listing of data sets and further technical details are given in the WGI Technical Summary Supplementary Material WGI TS.SM.1.1} (b) Map of the observed surface temperature change, from 191 to 1, derived from temperature trends determined by linear regression from one data set (orange line in Panel a). Trends have been calculated where data availability permitted a robust estimate (i.e., only for grid boxes with greater than 7% complete records and more than % data availability in the first and last 1% of the time period), other areas are white. Grid boxes where the trend is significant, at the 1% level, are indicated by a + sign. {WGI Figure SPM.1, Figure.1, Figure TS.; a listing of data sets and further technical details are given in the WGI Technical Summary Supplementary Material WGI TS.SM.1.} (c) Arctic (July to September average) and Antarctic (February) sea ice extent. {WGI Figure SPM.3, Figure 4.3, Figure 4.SM.; a listing of data sets and further technical details are given in the WGI Technical Summary Supplementary Material WGI TS.SM.3.}. (d) Global mean sea level relative to the mean of the longest running data set, and with all data sets aligned to have the same value in 1993, the first year of satellite altimetry data. All time series (coloured lines indicating different data sets) show annual values, and where assessed, uncertainties are indicated by coloured shading. {WGI Figure SPM.3, Figure 3.13; a listing of data sets and further technical details are given in the WGI Technical Summary Supplementary Material WGI TS.SM.3.4}. (e) Map of observed precipitation change, from 1951 to 1; trends in annual accumulation calculated using the same criteria as in Panel b. {WGI Figure SPM., TS TFE.1, Figure, Figure.9. A listing of data sets and further technical details are given in the WGI Technical Summary Supplementary Material WGI TS.SM..1} Since the beginning of the industrial era, oceanic uptake of CO has resulted in acidification of the ocean; the ph of ocean surface water has decreased by.1 (high confidence), corresponding to a 6% increase in acidity, measured as hydrogen ion concentration. There is medium confidence that, in parallel to warming, oxygen concentrations have decreased in coastal waters and in the open ocean thermocline in many ocean regions since the 196s, with a likely expansion of tropical oxygen minimum zones in recent decades. {WGI SPM B.5, TS.8.5, 3.8.1, 3.8., 3.8.3, 3.8.5, Figure 3.} 41

10 Topic 1 Observed Changes and their Causes Energy accumulation within the Earth s climate system 3 Upper ocean Deep ocean Ice 5 Land Atmosphere Uncertainty 15 The annual mean Arctic sea ice extent decreased over the period 1979 (when satellite observations commenced) to 1. The rate of decrease was very likely in the range 3.5 to 4.1% per decade. Arctic sea ice extent has decreased in every season and in every successive decade since 1979, with the most rapid decrease in decadal mean extent in summer (high confidence). For the summer sea ice minimum, the decrease was very likely in the range of 9.4 to 13.6% per decade (range of.73 to 1.7 million km per decade) (see Figure 1.1). It is very likely that the annual mean Antarctic sea ice extent increased in the range of 1. to 1.8% per decade (range of.13 to. million km per decade) between 1979 and 1. However, there is high confidence that there are strong regional differences in Antarctica, with extent increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. {WGI SPM B.5, 4.., 4..3} J 1 5 There is very high confidence that the extent of Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased since the mid-th century by 1.6 [.8 to.4] % per decade for March and April, and 11.7% per decade for June, over the 1967 to 1 period. There is high confidence that permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions of the Northern Hemisphere since the early 198s, with reductions in thickness and areal extent in some regions. The increase in permafrost temperatures has occurred in response to increased surface temperature and changing snow cover. {WGI SPM B.3, 4.5, 4.7.} Sea level Year Figure 1. Energy accumulation within the Earth s climate system. Estimates are in 1 1 J, and are given relative to 1971 and from 1971 to 1, unless otherwise indicated. Components included are upper ocean (above 7 m), deep ocean (below 7 m; including below m estimates starting from 199), ice melt (for glaciers and ice caps, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet estimates starting from 199, and Arctic sea ice estimate from 1979 to 8), continental (land) warming, and atmospheric warming (estimate starting from 1979). Uncertainty is estimated as error from all five components at 9% confidence intervals. {WGI Box 3.1, Figure 1} Cryosphere Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass (high confidence). Glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide (high confidence). Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover has continued to decrease in extent (high confidence). There is high confidence that there are strong regional differences in the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, with a very likely increase in total extent. {WGI SPM B.3, } Glaciers have lost mass and contributed to sea level rise throughout the th century. The rate of ice mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has very likely substantially increased over the period 199 to 11, resulting in a larger mass loss over to 11 than over 199 to 11. The rate of ice mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet, mainly from the northern Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, is also likely larger over to 11. {WGI SPM B.3, SPM B.4, 4.3.3, 4.4., 4.4.3} 4 Over the period 191 1, global mean sea level rose by.19 [.17 to.1] m (Figure 1.1). The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). {WGI SPM B.4, 3.7., 5.6.3, 13.} It is very likely that the mean rate of global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm/yr between 191 and 1 and 3. [.8 to 3.6] mm/yr between 1993 and 1. Tide gauge and satellite altimeter data are consistent regarding the higher rate during the latter period. It is likely that similarly high rates occurred between 19 and 195. {WGI SPM B.4, 3.7, 13.} Since the early 197s, glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion from warming together explain about 75% of the observed global mean sea level rise (high confidence). Over the period , global mean sea level rise is, with high confidence, consistent with the sum of the observed contributions from ocean thermal expansion, due to warming, from changes in glaciers, the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheet and land water storage. {WGI SPM B.4, } Rates of sea level rise over broad regions can be several times larger or smaller than the global mean sea level rise for periods of several decades, due to fluctuations in ocean circulation. Since 1993, the regional rates for the Western Pacific are up to three times larger than the global mean, while those for much of the Eastern Pacific are near zero or negative. {WGI 3.7.3, FAQ 13.1} There is very high confidence that maximum global mean sea level during the last interglacial period (19, to 116, years ago) was, for several thousand years, at least 5 m higher than present and

11 Observed Changes and their Causes Topic 1 Box 1.1 Recent Temperature Trends and their Implications The observed reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998 to 1 as compared to the period 1951 to 1, is due in roughly equal measure to a reduced trend in radiative forcing and a cooling contribution from natural internal variability, which includes a possible redistribution of heat within the ocean (medium confidence). The rate of warming of the observed global mean surface temperature over the period from 1998 to 1 is estimated to be around one-third to one-half of the trend over the period from 1951 to 1 (Box 1.1, Figures 1a and 1c). Even with this reduction in surface warming trend, the climate system has very likely continued to accumulate heat since 1998 (Figure 1.) and sea level has continued to rise (Figure 1.1). {WGI SPM D.1, Box 9.} Introduction The radiative forcing of the climate system has continued to increase during the s, as has its largest contributor, the atmospheric concentration of CO. However, the radiative forcing has been increasing at a lower rate over the period from 1998 to 11, compared to 1984 to 1998 or 1951 to 11, due to cooling effects from volcanic eruptions and the cooling phase of the solar cycle over the period from to 9. There is, however, low confidence in quantifying the role of the forcing trend in causing the reduction in the rate of surface warming. {WGI 8.5., Box 9.} For the period from 1998 to 1, 111 of the 114 available climate-model simulations show a surface warming trend larger than the observations (Box 1.1, Figure 1a). There is medium confidence that this difference between models and observations is to a substantial degree caused by natural internal climate variability, which sometimes enhances and sometimes counteracts the long-term externally forced warming trend (compare Box 1.1, Figures 1a and 1b; during the period from 1984 to 1998, most model simulations show a smaller warming trend than observed). Natural internal variability thus diminishes the relevance of short trends for long-term climate change. The difference between models and observations may also contain contributions from inadequacies in the solar, volcanic and aerosol forcings used by the models and, in some models, from an overestimate of the response to increasing greenhouse gas and other anthropogenic forcing (the latter dominated by the effects of aerosols). {WGI.4.3, Box 9., 9.4.1, } 1 For the longer period from 1951 to 1, simulated surface warming trends are consistent with the observed trend (very high confidence) (Box 1.1, Figure 1c). Furthermore, the independent estimates of radiative forcing, of surface warming and of observed heat storage (the latter available since 197) combine to give a heat budget for the Earth that is consistent with the assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity ( ºC) 1. The record of observed climate change has thus allowed characterization of the basic properties of the climate system that have implications for future warming, including the equilibrium climate sensitivity and the transient climate response (see Topic ). {WGI Box 9., 1.8.1, 1.8., Box 1., Box 13.1} (a) (b) (c) Observations Relative frequency 4 Models ( C per decade) ( C per decade) ( C per decade) Box 1.1, Figure 1 Trends in the global mean surface temperature over the periods from 1998 to 1 (a), 1984 to 1998 (b), and 1951 to 1 (c), from observations (red) and the 114 available simulations with current-generation climate models (grey bars). The height of each grey bar indicates how often a trend of a certain magnitude (in C per decade) occurs among the 114 simulations. The width of the red-hatched area indicates the statistical uncertainty that arises from constructing a global average from individual station data. This observational uncertainty differs from the one quoted in the text of Section 1.1.1; there, an estimate of natural internal variability is also included. Here, by contrast, the magnitude of natural internal variability is characterised by the spread of the model ensemble. {based on WGI Box 9., Figure 1} 1 The connection between the heat budget and equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is the long-term surface warming under an assumed doubling of the atmospheric CO concentration, arises because a warmer surface causes enhanced radiation to space which counteracts the increase in the Earth s heat content. How much the radiation to space increases for a given increase in surface temperature depends on the same feedback processes (e.g., cloud feedback, water vapour feedback) that determine equilibrium climate sensitivity. 43

12 Topic 1 Observed Changes and their Causes 1 high confidence that it did not exceed 1 m above present. During the last interglacial period, the Greenland ice sheet very likely contributed between 1.4 and 4.3 m to the higher global mean sea level, implying with medium confidence an additional contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. This change in sea level occurred in the context of different orbital forcing and with high-latitude surface temperature, averaged over several thousand years, at least C warmer than present (high confidence). {WGI SPM B.4, 5.3.4, 5.6., 13..1} 1. Past and recent drivers of climate change 44 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era driven largely by economic and population growth. From to 1 emissions were the highest in history. Historical emissions have driven atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide to levels that are unprecedented in at least the last 8, years, leading to an uptake of energy by the climate system. Natural and anthropogenic substances and processes that alter the Earth s energy budget are physical drivers of climate change. Radiative forcing quantifies the perturbation of energy into the Earth system caused by these drivers. Radiative forcings larger than zero lead to a near-surface warming, and radiative forcings smaller than zero lead to a cooling. Radiative forcing is estimated based on in-situ and remote observations, properties of GHGs and aerosols, and calculations using numerical models. The radiative forcing over the period is shown in Figure 1.4 in major groupings. The Other Anthropogenic group is principally comprised of cooling effects from aerosol changes, with smaller contributions from ozone changes, land use reflectance changes and other minor terms. {WGI SPM C, 8.1, 8.5.1} 1..1 Natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings Atmospheric concentrations of GHGs are at levels that are unprecedented in at least 8, years. Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N O) have all shown large increases since 175 (4%, 15% and %, respectively) (Figure 1.3). CO concentrations are increasing at the fastest observed decadal rate of change (. ±.1 ppm/yr) for 11. After almost one decade of stable CH 4 concentrations since the late 199s, atmospheric measurements have shown renewed increases since 7. N O concentrations have steadily increased at a rate of.73 ±.3 ppb/yr over the last three decades. {WGI SPM B5,..1, 6.1., 6.1.3, 6.3} The total anthropogenic radiative forcing over is calculated to be a warming effect of.3 [1.1 to 3.3] W/m (Figure 1.4), and it has increased more rapidly since 197 than during prior decades. Carbon dioxide is the largest single contributor to radiative forcing over and its trend since 197. The total anthropogenic radiative forcing estimate for 11 is substantially higher (43%) than the estimate reported in the IPCC CO (ppm) N O (ppb) Globally averaged greenhouse gas concentrations Ice cores Atmospheric measurements Year Figure 1.3 Observed changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO, green), methane (CH 4, orange), and nitrous oxide (N O, red). Data from ice cores (symbols) and direct atmospheric measurements (lines) are overlaid. {WGI., 6., 6.3, Figure 6.11} Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for the year 5. This is caused by a combination of continued growth in most GHG concentrations and an improved estimate of radiative forcing from aerosols. {WGI SPM C, 8.5.1} The radiative forcing from aerosols, which includes cloud adjustments, is better understood and indicates a weaker cooling effect than in AR4. The aerosol radiative forcing over is estimated as.9 [ 1.9 to.1] W/m (medium confidence). Radiative forcing from aerosols has two competing components: a dominant cooling effect from most aerosols and their cloud adjustments and a partially offsetting warming contribution from black carbon absorption of solar radiation. There is high confidence that the global mean total aerosol radiative forcing has counteracted a substantial portion of radiative forcing from wellmixed GHGs. Aerosols continue to contribute the largest uncertainty to the total radiative forcing estimate. {WGI SPM C, 7.5, 8.3, 8.5.1} Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols cause natural radiative forcing (Figure 1.4). The radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic aerosols can have a large cooling effect on the climate system for some years after major volcanic eruptions. Changes in total solar irradiance are calculated to have contributed only around % of the total radiative forcing in 11, relative to 175. {WGI SPM C, Figure SPM.5, 8.4} 7 CH 4 (ppb)

13 Observed Changes and their Causes Topic 1 WMGHG Other Anthrop. Total Anthrop. Radiative forcing in 11 relative to 175 CO CH 4 N O Halocarbons 4 ± 31 GtCO were added to the atmosphere between 175 and 11. Since 197, cumulative CO emissions from fossil fuel combustion, cement production and flaring have tripled, and cumulative CO emissions from forestry and other land use 1 (FOLU) have increased by about 4% (Figure 1.5) 3. In 11, annual CO emissions from fossil fuel combustion, cement production and flaring were 34.8 ±.9 GtCO /yr. For 11, average annual emissions from FOLU were 3.3 ±.9 GtCO /yr. {WGI 6.3.1, 6.3., WGIII SPM.3} Introduction Natural (W/m ) Figure 1.4 Radiative forcing of climate change during the industrial era (175 11). Bars show radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG), other anthropogenic forcings, total anthropogenic forcings and natural forcings. The error bars indicate the 5 to 95% uncertainty. Other anthropogenic forcings include aerosol, land use surface reflectance and ozone changes. Natural forcings include solar and volcanic effects. The total anthropogenic radiative forcing for 11 relative to 175 is.3 W/m (uncertainty range 1.1 to 3.3 W/m ). This corresponds to a CO -equivalent concentration (see Glossary) of 43 ppm (uncertainty range 34 to 5 ppm). {Data from WGI 7.5 and Table 8.6} 1.. Human activities affecting emission drivers About half of the cumulative anthropogenic CO emissions between 175 and 11 have occurred in the last 4 years (high confidence). Cumulative anthropogenic CO emissions of About 4% of these anthropogenic CO emissions have remained in the atmosphere (88 ± 35 GtCO ) since 175. The rest was removed from the atmosphere by sinks, and stored in natural carbon cycle reservoirs. Sinks from ocean uptake and vegetation with soils account, in roughly equal measures, for the remainder of the cumulative CO emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 3% of the emitted anthropogenic CO, causing ocean acidification. {WGI 3.8.1, 6.3.1} Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to increase over 197 to 1 with larger absolute increases between and 1 (high confidence). Despite a growing number of climate change mitigation policies, annual GHG emissions grew on average by 1. GtCO -eq (.%) per year, from to 1, compared to.4 GtCO -eq (1.3%) per year, from 197 to (Figure 1.6) 4. Total anthropogenic GHG emissions from to 1 were the highest in human history and reached 49 (±4.5) GtCO -eq/yr in 1. The global economic crisis of 7/8 reduced emissions only temporarily. {WGIII SPM.3, 1.3, 5., 13.3, 15.., Box TS.5, Figure 15.1} 1 4 Global anthropogenic CO emissions Quantitative information of CH 4 and N O emission time series from 185 to 197 is limited Cumulative CO emissions (GtCO /yr) Fossil fuels, cement and flaring Forestry and other land use (GtCO ) Year Figure 1.5 Annual global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO ) emissions (gigatonne of CO -equivalent per year, GtCO /yr) from fossil fuel combustion, cement production and flaring, and forestry and other land use (FOLU), Cumulative emissions and their uncertainties are shown as bars and whiskers, respectively, on the right-hand side. The global effects of the accumulation of methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N O) emissions are shown in Figure 1.3. Greenhouse gas emission data from 197 to 1 are shown in Figure 1.6. {modified from WGI Figure TS.4 and WGIII Figure TS.} Forestry and other land use (FOLU) also referred to as LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) is the subset of agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) emissions and removals of GHGs related to direct human-induced LULUCF activities, excluding agricultural emissions and removals (see WGIII AR5 Glossary). 3 Numbers from WGI 6.3 converted into GtCO units. Small differences in cumulative emissions from Working Group III {WGIII SPM.3, TS..1} are due to different approaches to rounding, different end years and the use of different data sets for emissions from FOLU. Estimates remain extremely close, given their uncertainties. 4 CO -equivalent emission is a common scale for comparing emissions of different GHGs. Throughout the SYR, when historical emissions of GHGs are provided in GtCO -eq, they are weighted by Global Warming Potentials with a 1-year time horizon (GWP 1 ), taken from the IPCC Second Assessment Report unless otherwise stated. A unit abbreviation of GtCO -eq is used. {Box 3., Glossary} 45

14 Topic 1 Observed Changes and their Causes 5 Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions by gases %/yr %/yr 1 49 Gt.% 6.% 5 Gt.% 5.% 1 GHG emissions (GtCO -eq/yr) Gt 7.9%.44% 19% 17% 1 55% Gt.81% 7.4% 199 Year 18% 16% 59% 1995 Gas F-Gases N O CH 4 CO FOLU CO Fossil fuel and industrial processes % 11% 65% % 1% 6% 1 1 (GWP 1 SAR) (GWP 1 AR5) Figure 1.6 Total annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (gigatonne of CO -equivalent per year, GtCO -eq/yr) for the period 197 to 1, by gases: CO from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes; CO from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU); methane (CH 4 ); nitrous oxide (N O); fluorinated gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol (F-gases). Right hand side shows 1 emissions, using alternatively CO -equivalent emission weightings based on IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) and AR5 values. Unless otherwise stated, CO -equivalent emissions in this report include the basket of Kyoto gases (CO, CH 4, N O as well as F-gases) calculated based on 1-year Global Warming Potential (GWP 1 ) values from the SAR (see Glossary). Using the most recent GWP 1 values from the AR5 (right-hand bars) would result in higher total annual GHG emissions (5 GtCO -eq/yr) from an increased contribution of methane, but does not change the long-term trend significantly. Other metric choices would change the contributions of different gases (see Box 3.). The 1 values are shown again broken down into their components with the associated uncertainties (9% confidence interval) indicated by the error bars. Global CO emissions from fossil fuel combustion are known with an 8% uncertainty margin (9% confidence interval). There are very large uncertainties (of the order of ±5%) attached to the CO emissions from FOLU. Uncertainty about the global emissions of CH 4, N O and the F-gases has been estimated at %, 6% and %, respectively. 1 was the most recent year for which emission statistics on all gases as well as assessments of uncertainties were essentially complete at the time of data cut off for this report. The uncertainty estimates only account for uncertainty in emissions, not in the GWPs (as given in WGI 8.7). {WGIII Figure SPM.1} CO emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributed about 78% to the total GHG emission increase between 197 and 1, with a contribution of similar percentage over the 1 period (high confidence). Fossil-fuel-related CO emissions reached 3 (±.7) GtCO /yr, in 1, and grew further by about 3% between 1 and 11, and by about 1 to % between 11 and 1. CO remains the major anthropogenic GHG, accounting for 76% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 1. Of the total, 16% comes from CH 4, 6.% from N O, and.% from fluorinated gases (F-gases) (Figure 1.6) 5. Annually, since 197, about 5% of anthropogenic GHG emissions have been in the form of non-co gases 6. {WGIII SPM.3, 1., 5.} Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased by about 1 GtCO -eq between and 1. This increase directly came from the energy (47%), industry (3%), transport (11%) and building (3%) sectors (medium confidence). Accounting for indirect emissions raises the contributions by the building and industry sectors (high confidence). Since, GHG emissions have been growing in all sectors, except in agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). In 1, 35% of GHG emissions were released by the energy sector, 4% (net emissions) from AFOLU, 1% by industry, 14% by transport and 6.4% by the building sector. When emissions from electricity and heat production are attributed to the sectors that use the final energy (i.e., indirect emissions), the shares of the industry and building sectors in global GHG emissions are increased to 31% and 19%, respectively (Figure 1.7). {WGIII SPM.3, 7.3, 8.1, 9., 1.3, 11.} See also Box 3. for contributions from various sectors, based on metrics other than 1-year Global Warming Potential (GWP 1 ). Globally, economic and population growth continue to be the most important drivers of increases in CO emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The contribution of population growth between and 1 remained roughly identical to that of the previous three decades, while the contribution of economic growth has risen sharply (high confidence). Between and 5 Using the most recent 1-year Global Warming Potential (GWP 1 ) values from the AR5 {WGI 8.7} instead of GWP 1 values from the IPCC Second Assessment Report, global GHG emission totals would be slightly higher (5 GtCO -eq/yr) and non-co emission shares would be % for CH 4, 5% for N O and.% for F-gases. 6 For this report, data on non-co GHGs, including F-gases, were taken from the Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) database {WGIII Annex II.9}, which covers substances included in the Kyoto Protocol in its first commitment period. 46

15 Observed Changes and their Causes Topic 1 Electricity and heat production 5% AFOLU 4% Buildings 6.4% Transport 14% Industry 1% Other energy 9.6% Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors Total: 49 Gt CO -eq (1) Direct GHG emissions Energy 1.4% Industry 11% Transport.3% Buildings 1% AFOLU.87% Indirect CO emissions Figure 1.7 Total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (gigatonne of CO - equivalent per year, GtCO -eq/yr) from economic sectors in 1. The circle shows the shares of direct GHG emissions (in % of total anthropogenic GHG emissions) from five economic sectors in 1. The pull-out shows how shares of indirect CO emissions (in % of total anthropogenic GHG emissions) from electricity and heat production are attributed to sectors of final energy use. Other energy refers to all GHG emission sources in the energy sector as defined in WGIII Annex II, other than electricity and heat production {WGIII Annex II.9.1}. The emission data on agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) includes land-based CO emissions from forest fires, peat fires and peat decay that approximate to net CO flux from the sub-sectors of forestry and other land use (FOLU) as described in Chapter 11 of the WGIII report. Emissions are converted into CO -equivalents based on 1-year Global Warming Potential (GWP 1 ), taken from the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR). Sector definitions are provided in WGIII Annex II.9. {WGIII Figure SPM.} 1, both drivers outpaced emission reductions from improvements in energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (Figure 1.8). Increased use of coal relative to other energy sources has reversed the long-standing trend in gradual decarbonization (i.e., reducing the carbon intensity of energy) of the world s energy supply. {WGIII SPM.3, TS.., 1.3, 5.3, 7., 7.3, 14.3} 1.3 Attribution of climate changes and impacts The evidence for human influence on the climate system has grown since AR4. Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in global mean sea level rise; and it is extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid- th century. In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Impacts are due to observed climate change, irrespective of its cause, indicating the sensitivity of natural and human systems to changing climate. The causes of observed changes in the climate system, as well as in any natural or human system impacted by climate, are established following a consistent set of methods. Detection addresses the question of whether climate or a natural or human system affected by climate has actually changed in a statistical sense, while attribution evaluates the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to an observed change Introduction 1 Change in annual CO emissions by decade (GtCO /yr) Decomposition of the change in total global CO emissions from fossil fuel combustion by decade Carbon intensity of energy Population Energy intensity of GDP Total change GDP per capita Figure 1.8 Decomposition of the change in total annual carbon dioxide (CO ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion by decade and four driving factors: population, income (gross domestic product, GDP) per capita, energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy. The bar segments show the changes associated with each individual factor, holding the respective other factors constant. Total emission changes are indicated by a triangle. The change in emissions over each decade is measured in gigatonnes of CO per year (GtCO /yr); income is converted into common units, using purchasing power parities. {WGIII SPM.3} 47

16 Topic 1 Observed Changes and their Causes 1 or event with an assignment of statistical confidence 7. Attribution of climate change to causes quantifies the links between observed climate change and human activity, as well as other, natural, climate drivers. In contrast, attribution of observed impacts to climate change considers the links between observed changes in natural or human systems and observed climate change, regardless of its cause. Results from studies attributing climate change to causes provide estimates of the magnitude of warming in response to changes in radiative forcing and hence support projections of future climate change (Topic ). Results from studies attributing impacts to climate change provide strong indications for the sensitivity of natural or human systems to future climate change. {WGI 1.8, WGII SPM A-1, WGI/II/III/SYR Glossaries} Attribution of climate changes to human and natural influences on the climate system It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 1 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together (Figure 1.9). The best estimate of the human induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period. GHGs contributed a global mean surface warming likely to be in the range of.5 C to 1.3 C over the period 1951 to 1, with further contributions from other anthropogenic forcings, including the cooling effect of aerosols, from natural forcings, and from natural internal variability (see Figure 1.9). Contributions to observed surface temperature change over the period OBSERVED WARMING Greenhouse gases Combined anthropogenic forcings Other anthropogenic forcings Natural forcings Natural internal variability ( C) Figure 1.9 Assessed likely ranges (whiskers) and their mid-points (bars) for warming trends over the period from well-mixed greenhouse gases, other anthropogenic forcings (including the cooling effect of aerosols and the effect of land use change), combined anthropogenic forcings, natural forcings, and natural internal climate variability (which is the element of climate variability that arises spontaneously within the climate system, even in the absence of forcings). The observed surface temperature change is shown in black, with the 5 to 95% uncertainty range due to observational uncertainty. The attributed warming ranges (colours) are based on observations combined with climate model simulations, in order to estimate the contribution by an individual external forcing to the observed warming. The contribution from the combined anthropogenic forcings can be estimated with less uncertainty than the separate contributions from greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings separately. This is because these two contributions partially compensate, resulting in a signal that is better constrained by observations. {Based on Figure WGI TS.1} Together these assessed contributions are consistent with the observed warming of approximately.6 C to.7 C over this period. {WGI SPM D.3, 1.3.1} It is very likely that anthropogenic influence, particularly GHGs and stratospheric ozone depletion, has led to a detectable observed pattern of tropospheric warming and a corresponding cooling in the lower stratosphere since {WGI SPM D.3,.4.4, 9.4.1, 1.3.1} Over every continental region except Antarctica, anthropogenic forcings have likely made a substantial contribution to surface temperature increases since the mid-th century (Figure 1.1). For Antarctica, large observational uncertainties result in low confidence that anthropogenic forcings have contributed to the observed warming averaged over available stations. In contrast, it is likely that there has been an anthropogenic contribution to the very substantial Arctic warming since the mid-th century. Human influence has likely contributed to temperature increases in many sub-continental regions. {WGI SPM D.3, TS.4.8, 1.3.1} Anthropogenic influences have very likely contributed to Arctic sea ice loss since 1979 (Figure 1.1). There is low confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent due to the incomplete and competing scientific explanations for the causes of change and low confidence in estimates of natural internal variability in that region. {WGI SPM D.3, 1.5.1, Figure 1.16} Anthropogenic influences likely contributed to the retreat of glaciers since the 196s and to the increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet since Due to a low level of scientific understanding, however, there is low confidence in attributing the causes of the observed loss of mass from the Antarctic ice sheet over the past two decades. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic contribution to observed reductions in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover since 197. {WGI 4.3.3, 1.5., 1.5.3} It is likely that anthropogenic influences have affected the global water cycle since 196. Anthropogenic influences have contributed to observed increases in atmospheric moisture content (medium confidence), to global-scale changes in precipitation patterns over land (medium confidence), to intensification of heavy precipitation over land regions where data are sufficient (medium confidence) (see 1.4) and to changes in surface and subsurface ocean salinity (very likely). {WGI SPM D.3,.5.1,.6., 3.3., 3.3.3, 7.6., 1.3., 1.4., 1.6} It is very likely that anthropogenic forcings have made a substantial contribution to increases in global upper ocean heat content ( 7 m) observed since the 197s (Figure 1.1). There is evidence for human influence in some individual ocean basins. It is very likely that there is a substantial anthropogenic contribution to the global mean sea level rise since the 197s. This is based on the high confidence in an anthropogenic influence on the two largest contributions to sea level rise: thermal expansion and glacier mass loss. Oceanic 7 Definitions were taken from the Good Practice Guidance Paper on Detection and Attribution, the agreed product of the IPCC Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthropogenic Climate Change; see Glossary. 48

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