MLB Mock Draft 2013: Mike Rosenbaum's Final 1st-Round Projections

With the 2013 MLB Rule 4 draft set to commence on Thursday night, it’s time to take one final stab at predicting how the first round will unfold.

For the second consecutive year, the Houston Astros have the No. 1 pick and will drastically impact how the first round unfolds. In 2012, they decided to cut a well-below-slot deal with 17-year-old Puerto Rican shortstop Carlos Correa. As a result, the organization was able to sign all of its key, early round selections.

Although this year’s crop of talent may be weaker compared to previous drafts, it’s loaded at the top with college standouts Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Kris Bryant and Colin Moran.

3. Colorado Rockies: Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, San Diego

Courtesy of San Diego

Slot Value: $5.6264 million

Analysis: This could be either Gray or Appel if something unexpected happens, but I believe the first three picks will unfold as anticipated.

For those of you worrying about how he’ll fit in with Nolan Arenado already entrenched at the hot corner, try not to read too far into it. The Colorado Rockies will make room for both of their potent bats.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS (Wash.)

Courtesy of MLBDirt

Slot Value: $3.0296 million

Analysis: The Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t quite sure who they are going to select with each of their Top 15 picks, but it seems like a safe assumption that Reese McGuire will be one of them provided that he’s signable.

10. Toronto Blue Jays: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS (Ga.)

Courtesy of BaseballAmericaVideo

Slot Value: $2.9214 million

Analysis: I wouldn’t be surprised if Frazier’s already off the board by the time the Toronto Blue Jays make their pick. If that’s ultimately the case, expect them to target another high-ceiling prep player like Trey Ball.

11. New York Mets: D.J. Peterson, 1B/3B, New Mexico

Analysis: Part of me wanted to go with Dominic Smith right here, but it’s hard to envision the New York Mets, who need impact bats in their system immediately, investing in a high school player with a proven hitter like D.J. Peterson still on the board.

16. Philadelphia Phillies: Dominic Smith, 1B, Serra HS (Calif.)

Analysis: Much like some of the other teams with a mid-first-round pick, the Philadelphia Phillies will have to wait and see what’s still available at No. 16.

If Dominic Smith is already off the board, I could see them showing interest in an up-the-middle player such as Tim Anderson, or even a high-ceiling right-hander such as Hunter Harvey or Devin Williams.

20. Detroit Tigers: Devin Williams, RHP, Hazelwood West HS (Mo.)

Analysis: After talking with a National League scout who watched Devin Williams hit 93 to 96 mph with improved secondaries yesterday morning, I’m beginning to wonder whether the right-hander will even last this long into the draft.

Regardless, expect Williams’ name to surface near the middle of the first round on Thursday.

22. Baltimore Orioles: Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville

Courtesy of Jacksonville

Slot Value: $1.9477 million

Analysis: While the Baltimore Orioles may consider one of the high-ceiling outfielders still on the board such as Aaron Judge, Josh Hart or even Austin Wilson, they’re also in need of at least one projectable arm.

A college pitcher such as Chris Anderson, Aaron Blair or even Jonathan Crawford would make sense.

25. San Francisco Giants: Matt Krook, LHP, St. Ignatius HS (Calif.)

Analysis: Given their successful track record of drafting young pitchers, the San Francisco Giants seem poised to add a much-needed left-hander to their already impressive collection of promising right-handers in the low minors.

26. New York Yankees: Eric Jagielo, 3B/OF, Notre Dame

Courtesy of Steve Fiorindo (BullpenBanter.com)

Slot Value: $1.8394 million

Analysis: This is where things could get interesting, as the New York Yankees will make three selections before the end of the first round. The only question is whether they’ll prioritize hitters or pitchers.

Given the lack of pure hitters in this year’s class, and especially those who project to hit for both average and power from the left side, I’d expect them to target a player like Eric Jagielo with the initial pick.

27. Cincinnati Reds: Jon Denney, C, Yukon HS (Okla.)

Courtesy of Yukon High School

Slot Value: $1.8124 million

Analysis: Even though drafting a catching prospect may not be at the top of their list, the Cincinnati Reds won't be able to pass on Jon Denney’s thunderous bat if he’s available this late into the first round.

28. St. Louis Cardinals: Billy McKinney, OF, Plano West HS (Texas)

Courtesy of Plano West High School

Slot Value: $1.7853 million

Analysis: While there are several scenarios where Billy McKinney is selected before the Cardinals' second pick (one of which involves them drafting him 19th overall), he should be close to a lock at this spot if still available.

31. Atlanta Braves: Josh Hart, OF, Parkview HS (Ga.)

Analysis: It’s no secret that the Atlanta Braves tend to target players out of their own backyard. They drafted both Lucas Sims and Alex Wood with their first two picks last year.

If Josh Hart is already spoken for by this pick, then it makes sense for the organization to pursue either a comparable outfielder such as Phil Ervin, or one of the better left-handers still on the board such as Cody Green or Rob Kaminsky.

Analysis: Due to their perennially low drafting position and ongoing struggles in developing pitching prospects, the Yankees have a rare opportunity to cash in with back-to-back picks to conclude the first round.

Although it may not play out in this exact order, I have a strong feeling that the Bronx Bombers will select Rob Kaminsky with one of their final picks. If not, then they’ll still have a few other promising options in Alex Balog and Andrew Thurman.

33. New York Yankees: Jonathan Crawford, RHP, Florida

Rob Foldy-USA TODAY Sports

Slot Value: $1.6501 million

Analysis: It’s difficult to predict who the Yankees will select with their third first-round pick, as there should be an abundance of talent still on the board. But who ever they draft will have to be signable.

The organization may choose to target pitchers who have fallen in the first round, such as Jonathan Crawford, Ryan Eades or Andrew Mitchell. I also wouldn’t rule out them taking a stab at left-hander Sean Manaea if they believe he’s signable.