“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. – J Robert Oppenheimer.

EU proposes new targets for greenhouse gas emissions

While we’re talking about Poland ratifying the Paris Agreement, it is worth recalling the EU’s proposals on how countries should share binding greenhouse gas emission reductions up to 2030.

This is the fact sheet, published by the EU in July.

Factsheet on the Commission’s proposal on binding greenhouse gas emission reductions for Member States (2021-2030)

Brussels, 20 July 2016

Questions and answers

1. Clear rules for the modernisation of a low-carbon economy in Europe

The collective efforts of all Member States will be required to modernise the economy and ensure a successful transition to a low-carbon economy. This is a shift that will provide jobs, growth and investment opportunities for Europe while mitigating dangerous climate change. Such a transition requires changes in business and investment behaviour and incentives across the entire policy spectrum. The modernisation of the economy will stimulate investment and innovation in new technologies and ensure the EU can remain a world leader in renewable energy and be competitive in markets for goods and services such as low-emission vehicles and energy efficiency.

Following up on the agreement reached by Heads of State or Government of the European Union in October 2014 and later confirmed in March 2016, today’s proposal, the "Effort Sharing Regulation", sets binding annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2021–2030 for the sectors of the economy not regulated under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) [1]. These sectors include buildings, agriculture, waste management, and transport accounting for almost 60% of total EU emissions in 2014. Setting the national emissions reduction targets is based on fairness, solidarity, cost-effectiveness and environmental integrity.

Together with July’s 2015 proposal for the revision of the EU ETS and today’s proposal on how to include the land use sector in the 2030 climate and energy framework, this will ensure the achievement of the commitments by the European Union and its Member States under the Paris Agreement on climate change.

In October 2014, EU Heads of State or Government set a binding economy-wide domestic emissions reduction target of at least 40% by 2030, compared to 1990. All Member States and all sectors should contribute to achieving these emission reductions. To do so in a cost-effective manner, the industrial and power sectors covered by the EU emissions trading system (ETS) should reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 compared to 2005. Other sectors of the economy (the so-called non-ETS sectors) should reduce emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 2005.

2. Fair and cost-effective distribution of the 30% emission reduction target between all EU Member States

This package of measures presented by the Commission helps Europe to prepare for the future and to stay competitive. It translates the commitments taken by Member States in October 2014 and is primarily addressed to Member States, since they will be in the forefront of deciding how to implement measures to meet the agreed greenhouse gas emission target for 2030.

All Member States will have national emission targets for 2030 expressed as a percentage reduction from 2005 emission levels as well as access to new flexibilities to achieve those targets cost effectively. Collectively, these national targets give an overall EU reduction of 30% in the sectors covered by the proposal. The 2030 targets range from 0% to -40% compared to 2005 levels. The table below includes the target and the level of access to these new flexibilities for each Member State:

2030 target compared to 2005

Maximum annual flexibility

(as a % of 2005 emissions)

One-off flexibility from Emissions Trading System to Effort Sharing Regulation

Flexibility from land use sector to Effort Sharing Regulation*

LU

-40%

4%

0.2%

SE

-40%

2%

1.1%

DK

-39%

2%

4.0%

FI

-39%

2%

1.3%

DE

-38%

0.5%

FR

-37%

1.5%

UK

-37%

0.4%

NL

-36%

2%

1.1%

AT

-36%

2%

0.4%

BE

-35%

2%

0.5%

IT

-33%

0.3%

IE

-30%

4%

5.6%

ES

-26%

1.3%

CY

-24%

1.3%

MT

-19%

2%

0.3%

PT

-17%

1.0%

EL

-16%

1.1%

SI

-15%

1.1%

CZ

-14%

0.4%

EE

-13%

1.7%

SK

-12%

0.5%

LT

-9%

5.0%

PL

-7%

1.2%

HR

-7%

0.5%

HU

-7%

0.5%

LV

-6%

3.8%

RO

-2%

1.7%

BG

0%

1.5%

*Estimate, limit is expressed in absolute million tonnes over 10 years

The proposal continues to recognise different capacities of Member States to take action by differentiating targets according to GDP per capita across Member States. This ensures fairness because higher income Member States will take on more ambitious targets than lower income Member States.

EU leaders recognised that an approach for higher income Member States based solely on relative GDP/capita would mean that some would have relatively high costs for reaching their targets. To address this, a group of Member States with a GDP per capita above Union average should be relatively adjusted to reflect cost-effectiveness in a fair and balanced manner.

The proposal creates a flexible system in which Member States can reduce emissions jointly, across a number of sectors and over time, reflecting also the different structure of Member States’ economies. It not only sets national targets, but also provides a number of flexibilities to allow for a fair and cost-efficient achievement of the targets. In particular two new flexibilities are introduced, as described below, that will allow Member States to reach their targets cost efficiently.

Bear in mind that this does not include emissions covered under the EU emissions trading system (ETS), which applies to power and energy intensive sectors.

Whilst the UK is asked to cut emissions by 37% from 2005 levels, Poland’s target is only 7%.

The EU claim to justify this differential on the basis of relative wealth:

The proposal continues to recognise different capacities of Member States to take action by differentiating targets according to GDP per capita across Member States. This ensures fairness because higher income Member States will take on more ambitious targets than lower income Member States.

Some of us may have been under the impression that this was all about saving the planet, not ensuring fairness.

No wonder the EU is a world of delusion when you read some of article 1. ‘modernize the economy’ by going back to using windmills? ‘will provide jobs, growth and investment opportunities for Europe’ by EU companies in countries other than the EU. ‘EU can remain a world leader in renewable energy…low-emission vehicles’ which dry up once the global warming scam falls and with electric cars is never going to get going in the first place.

UK leaders may still want to march in step with the EU on this, even though they will no longer be ‘wearing the uniform’. Only a series of disastrous power blackouts in winter would have any chance of forcing a rethink, it seems.