All in the Family featured the curmudgeonly Archie Bunker. Archie was television’s most famous grouch, blunt, blustering, straightforward and untouched by the PC crowd. He was the archetype of the conservative male. Michael desprately tried to reeducate him, but he persisted in his breviloquence.

Looking back at the last 40 years, we realize: ARCHIE WAS RIGHT!

4/12/2013

Analysis

Arriving at this conclusion took analysis? I could have told you this much, and I never even considered reading the budget.

Early analysis: Obama's 2014 budget numbers are based on bad math, phantom revenues, imagined spending cuts and a middle-class tax hikeWhite House promises $1.8 trillion in deficit reduction, although similar previous claims have been debunked

Administration's formula depends on cost savings from Obamacare, which may be more costly to implement than previously thought

Let me break it down for you: Obama is a liar, the whole budget thing is a made up bunch of hooey. "Deficit reduction" is smoke in mirrors that basically means "this is how we spend less next year, while spending more this year". The "plan" calls for spending cuts over 10 years, which as we know will NEVER happen. I had to google around a bit but I discovered that the requested 2013 budget was $3.803 TRILLION dollars and tax income was $2.902 trillion. In other words we are still spending WAY MORE money than we take in in taxes.

The only way we will ever fix our national budget is to scrap the current budgeting system. No more cost plus budgets. We need an income minus system. The way that would work is we would take the total 2012 revenue ($2.450 trillion) multiple by a factor less than one (75% works good) and that's all the money the federal government gets to spend. The left over portion serves two main purposed 1. since revenue projections are just that, projections, it keeps us from over spending if there is a revenue deficit and 2. any extra revenue must be divided between two uses a.) 50% to a rainy day savings fund and b.) extra debt reduction.

What that looks like: The feds would still have a mind blowing $1.84 trillion to pay off the current debt and to waste on vote getting schemes AND we as a nation would bank $310 billion for a rainy day AND pay off $310 billion of public debt early, saving ourselves interest payments and restoring our national credit rating. Since 10 year projections are all the rage, lets do one assuming all things remain constant. At the end of ten years we would have $3.06 trillion in the bank and would have paid off early $3.06 trillion of the $17 trillion public debt.

Assuming that we stopped all borrowing as part of this budget methodology, and assuming 1/30th of the public debt would be paid off each year as part of the normal debt payment: federal debt would be less than $9.429 trillion or 55% lower than today. For the record, I didn't try to factor in interest payment savings, those numbers are straight debt reduction excluding interest savings.

This type of budgeting won't fix everything. We still have trillions in unfunded entitlement programs like social security and medicare. What this does is get the balance sheet going in the right direction and lay the ground work for reducing all federal taxes. Tax reduction is vital, because if our economy is ever going to turn around and grow its way out of the hole we are in, taxes will have to be lower. Which can only happen if the spend thrifts in DC are brought under control.

2 comments:

No problem. When you understand how screwed we are its easy to get down in the dumps. The budget problem is fixable, but no one wants to fix it. The $222 trillion in unfunded liabilities will be defaluted on. If there is a way to fix that, I don't know what it is.