Who's overvalued?

Mar 11, 2011

As I've noted before, no computer model is perfect, especially one that attempts to predict the behavior of unpredictable people. Some of its whiffs come out of the blue, but some are obvious if you look hard enough. Here are a few teams that I think the selection model is currently overvaluing.

UAB

I don't know where they'll show up tomorrow, but as of today the model had them comfortably in. Oddly enough, the loss to ECU bumped the Pirates into the top 100, which (marginally, albeit) increases the value of UAB's regular season sweep.

One problem is that they technically have a top-50 win, but it was against the #50 team (VCU) and it was at home. They are 9-7 against top 100, which is better than many of the bubble teams, but only 1-4 against top 50, and that one is just barely top 50.

Penn State and Michigan State

Each has a bad overall record, which the committee will certainly notice. For each, a run in the Big Ten tourney could mitigate that factor. Penn State is slightly more overvalued than the Spartans. They have a similar profile on the surface to Michigan and Michigan State, but it is qualitatively worse. Their best road win was at #75 Minnesota and the overall quality of their wins (and losses) don't stack up. (Comparison table described here.)

Results through games of March 9.

Wins

Penn St. (16 wins)

Michigan St. (16 wins)

Score

Opponent

Avg

Avg

Opponent

Score

56

52

Wisconsin (13)

H

13

13

H

Wisconsin (13)

64

61

57

55

Illinois (40)

H

27

27

H

Illinois (40)

61

57

66

62

Michigan St. (47)

H

33

33

N

Washington (45)

76

71

66

63

Minnesota (75)

A

44

38

A

Oakland (52)

77

76

66

63

Minnesota (75)

H

50

41

H

Penn St. (56)

75

57

66

52

Northwestern (91)

A

57

47

A

Minnesota (75)

53

48

65

41

Northwestern (91)

H

62

51

H

Minnesota (75)

71

62

77

73

Duquesne (93)

H

66

56

A

Northwestern (91)

65

62

64

49

Fairfield (100)

H

69

60

H

Northwestern (91)

71

67

70

49

Furman (116)

H

74

67

H

South Carolina (128)

82

73

77

61

Central Connecticut (148)

H

81

76

H

Iowa (172)

85

66

65

51

Iowa (172)

H

88

85

H

Indiana (182)

84

83

66

57

Saint Joseph's (176)

H

95

93

H

Tennessee Tech (191)

73

55

69

60

Indiana (182)

A

101

104

H

Bowling Green (248)

74

39

70

56

Lehigh (204)

H

108

119

H

Eastern Michigan (324)

96

66

57

53

Mount St. Mary's (232)

H

116

132

H

Prairie View A&M (334)

90

51

Losses

Penn St. (13 losses)

Michigan St. (13 losses)

Score

Opponent

Avg

Avg

Opponent

Score

64

74

Maine (215)

H

215

172

A

Iowa (172)

52

72

39

62

Maryland (102)

H

159

115

H

Michigan (57)

57

61

71

84

Mississippi (80)

A

132

95

A

Michigan (57)

63

70

69

79

Virginia Tech (64)

A

115

86

A

Penn St. (56)

62

66

62

65

Michigan (57)

H

104

76

A

Illinois (40)

62

71

69

76

Michigan (57)

A

96

68

N

Connecticut (24)

67

70

57

75

Michigan St. (47)

A

89

60

N

Syracuse (17)

58

72

51

68

Illinois (40)

A

83

55

H

Texas (14)

55

67

66

76

Wisconsin (13)

A

75

50

A

Wisconsin (13)

56

82

68

83

Purdue (8)

H

68

46

H

Purdue (8)

47

67

62

63

Purdue (8)

A

63

42

A

Purdue (8)

76

86

61

82

Ohio St. (2)

H

58

39

A

Duke (5)

79

84

66

69

Ohio St. (2)

A

53

36

A

Ohio St. (2)

61

71

Wins

Penn St. (16 wins)

Michigan (18 wins)

Score

Opponent

Avg

Avg

Opponent

Score

56

52

Wisconsin (13)

H

13

34

H

Harvard (34)

65

62

57

55

Illinois (40)

H

27

41

A

Michigan St. (47)

61

57

66

62

Michigan St. (47)

H

33

43

H

Michigan St. (47)

70

63

66

63

Minnesota (75)

A

44

45

H

Oakland (52)

69

51

66

63

Minnesota (75)

H

50

47

A

Penn St. (56)

65

62

66

52

Northwestern (91)

A

57

49

H

Penn St. (56)

76

69

65

41

Northwestern (91)

H

62

50

A

Clemson (60)

69

61

77

73

Duquesne (93)

H

66

53

A

Minnesota (75)

70

63

64

49

Fairfield (100)

H

69

58

H

Northwestern (91)

75

66

70

49

Furman (116)

H

74

64

H

Utah (119)

75

64

77

61

Central Connecticut (148)

H

81

74

A

Iowa (172)

75

72

65

51

Iowa (172)

H

88

82

H

Iowa (172)

87

73

66

57

Saint Joseph's (176)

H

95

89

H

Indiana (182)

73

69

69

60

Indiana (182)

A

101

101

H

Bowling Green (248)

69

50

70

56

Lehigh (204)

H

108

111

H

Bryant (255)

87

71

57

53

Mount St. Mary's (232)

H

116

120

H

North Carolina Central (258)

64

44

H

Gardner Webb (260)

80

58

H

South Carolina Upstate (313)

66

35

Losses

Penn St. (13 losses)

Michigan (12 losses)

Score

Opponent

Avg

Avg

Opponent

Score

64

74

Maine (215)

H

215

182

A

Indiana (182)

61

80

39

62

Maryland (102)

H

159

137

A

Northwestern (91)

60

74

71

84

Mississippi (80)

A

132

116

H

Minnesota (75)

64

69

69

79

Virginia Tech (64)

A

115

103

N

Texas El Paso (63)

56

65

62

65

Michigan (57)

H

104

90

A

Illinois (40)

52

54

69

76

Michigan (57)

A

96

78

N

Syracuse (17)

50

53

57

75

Michigan St. (47)

A

89

69

H

Wisconsin (13)

52

53

51

68

Illinois (40)

A

83

62

A

Wisconsin (13)

50

66

66

76

Wisconsin (13)

A

75

56

H

Purdue (8)

57

80

68

83

Purdue (8)

H

68

50

H

Ohio St. (2)

64

68

62

63

Purdue (8)

A

63

46

A

Ohio St. (2)

53

62

61

82

Ohio St. (2)

H

58

42

H

Kansas (1)

60

67

66

69

Ohio St. (2)

A

Clemson

The Tigers have four losses outside the RPI top 100. Their best road win is at #71 College of Charleston. Their 8-6 record against the top 100 is good, but somewhat deceptive. Five of those wins were over teams ranked between 71 and 100.

Harvard

Harvard's non-conference RPI (30th) is very good, but misleading. They played four non-conference road games against the top 57, which boosts their RPI, but they only won one. Their selection score is 7.8 (out of 100), meaning if they lose to Princeton, they'll probably fall out anyway, so I'm not too worried about them.