MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 200053Z - 200200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...VIGOROUS QLCS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND ASSOCIATED BOWING
SEGMENT WILL LIKELY MOVE ASHORE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE AN UPGRADE
TO 15-PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS LOCATED FROM 25 W OF LFT SWD TO 120 MI SSW 7R4
IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS IS PROGRESSING ENEWD AROUND 35 KT. THE
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED AS VERY
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS /LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ ALONG AND S OF A
MARITIME/EFFECTIVE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AN AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER OK WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARDS THE OZARKS THIS
EVENING...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL OVERSPREAD SERN LA AS A RESULT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE ISOLD WIND DAMAGE VIA 50-65 MPH GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A MESOVORTEX OR TWO CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.
..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/20/2016
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29559211 29919183 30038939 29438891 28828915 28799186
29559211