The latest was on Friday: This
Trend Is Very Worrisome For Apple. Apple's stock is
at $527 today. Revenue for this quarter is forecast to be $55
billion, net income is expected to be close to $12 billion.

So, as you can see, for three years running Blodget has warned
Apple that market share losses are going to lead to something bad
happening. And for three years Apple has been fine.

That's not to say Blodget is going to be wrong, it's
just to say, this is a very worrisome trend for his prediction
about Apple.

But what is his prediction about Apple, exactly? When I ask him,
he says he's not making a prediction.

When I press him, he says he believes Apple's margins will
eventually be compressed because it's going to have to chase
market share at some point. That means selling a cheaper phone to
get new users. Logically, this makes sense. But, there's some
evidence that it might not actually work out that way.

Horace Dediu of Asymco
recently noted that late smartphone adopters are behaving
differently than early smartphone adopters. In the U.S. market,
50% of cellphone owners have smartphones. If you use comScore data — which I think is shaky in
absolute numbers, but instructive for trends — you find that the
most recent buyers of smartphones are leaning towards iPhones
over Android.

In the last six months, Android share growth is slowing while iOS
is still gaining.

If this trend continues then the next 50% may not behave as one
might expect (namely that late adopters would take the low-cost
commodity offering accelerating Android adoption.) Late adopters
may, in fact, be choosier than early adopters. And it’s not at
the cost of overall growth. Late adopters are still converting at
the same rate of the early adopters.

So, it's entirely possible the next group of smartphone buyers
isn't just cheaper, but choosier. And they might choose the
iPhone.