The incredible credibility conundrum.

Trying to figure out what’s going on with Argentina’s Central Bank’s monetary policy right now is about as exact a science as checking out the horses as they parade around the paddock before a big race. There are clear favorites, a few dark horses, and until someone crosses the finish line it’s all guesswork. Except a lot less enjoyable because horses are cooler than politicians.

Argentina’s currency market hiccuped last week at the prospect that former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has an actual shot at becoming a national Senator, representing the Buenos Aires Province. After hovering pretty close to AR $15 for the better part of the year, last week the US dollar exchange rate reached AR $18.