Thursday, March 28, 2013

Nats vs. Mets -- 3/28/13

Photo by Mark Zuckerman / NATS INSIDER

Space Coast Stadium hosts its final game of the spring today.

VIERA, Fla. -- And so the last day of spring training has arrived. I'd like to tell you there were plenty of tears shed inside an emotional Nationals clubhouse this morning, but that would be a flat-out lie. These guys have been ready to get out of Dodge for weeks, so there was an extra kick in everyone's step as they prepared to face the Mets in their Grapefruit League finale.

All the regulars will get one or two at-bats today, Davey Johnson said, except for Jayson Werth, who is sitting this one out after getting hit with a pitch in the funny bone yesterday. He's fine and should play tomorrow against the Yankees in D.C., but they figured no sense taking a chance today. Bryce Harper's thumb also appears to be fine, and he is in the lineup today, hoping not to get jammed too badly on any pitches.

Gio Gonzalez is on the mound for the Nationals, his final tune-up before he faces the Marlins for real on Wednesday. He's opposed today by somebody named Domingo Tapia. Your guess is as good as mine.

ESPN has today's game on the air, and it is available in the Washington area. I'll, of course, have plenty of updates here as well...

1:08 p.m. -- And we're underway on a beautiful, 67-degree afternoon in Viera. You know what will be even more beautiful, though? Nationals Park on Monday.

1:17 p.m. -- Kind of an eventful first inning for Gio Gonzalez, though the end result was a zero on the board. He struck out both Collin Cowgill and Zach Lutz but in between allowed a broken-bat single to Daniel Murphy, a long flyball to Lucas Duda and a walk to Mike Baxter. There were also several borderline pitches called balls by plate umpire Paul Nauert, which drew the ire of the fans here. After all that, it's still scoreless.

1:30 p.m. -- That swollen thumb sure doesn't seem to be affecting Bryce Harper, huh? He just singled again in the bottom of the first, the 11th straight time he's reached base (10 hits, 1 walk). Ho-hum.

2:03 p.m. -- Adam LaRoche hasn't had a great spring, but he's certainly gotten hot over the last week or so. He just belted his fourth homer, a towering blast to right to put the Nats up 1-0 in the bottom of the second. Moments later, Danny Espinosa continued his torrid spring with his own blast to right-center. That puts the Nats up 2-0. ... Wait, make it 3-0 as Denard Span scores Kurt Suzuki with a base hit to left. ... Wait, make it 4-0 as Harper drives in Gonzalez with a sac fly (though that ends his streak at 11). The Nats are really fileting Tapia today, huh?

2:17 p.m. -- It looks like all the Nats starters (other than Gonzalez and Suzuki) are done for the day after three innings and two at-bats. Next stop: Washington, D.C. Still 4-0 as we go to the fourth.

2:27 p.m. -- And now Gio is done for the day (and the spring). His final line: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 66 pitches, 39 strikes. Good stuff from the lefty. And with that, I am outta here. I need to head to Orlando to tape tonight's debut episode of "The Baseball Show" on Comcast SportsNet. More details coming on the blog later this afternoon, but be sure to tune in at 11 p.m. tonight and every Thursday night this season to watch the show. It's been a blast -- talk to you all from Washington!

In The Book, Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman and Andy Dolphin found that the win value for a stolen base between 1999 and 2002 was .018 wins. On average, a runner who successfully stole a base would increase his team's chance of winning by roughly 1.8 percent. On the other hand, a runner who was thrown out attempting a steal cost his team .043 wins.

Obviously, the value of a stolen base varies greatly by situation. This is what I was looking at in my article on "Theft Prevention." The value of a stolen base in WPA (win probability added) can be nearly 10% in the late innings of a close ballgame. That says to me it is worth it for relievers to work on the skill of holding baserunners.

1:54 p.m. -- Adam LaRoche hasn't had a great spring, but he's certainly gotten hot over the last week or so. He just belted his fourth homer, a towering blast to right to put the Nats up 1-0 in the bottom of the second. Moments later, Danny Espinosa continued his torrid spring with his own blast to right-center. That puts the Nats up 2-0. ... Wait, make it 3-0 as Denard Span scores Kurt Suzuki with a base hit to left. The Nats are really fileting Tapia today, huh?

Such a pleasure to see the Nats on TV again. Even better to be able to see them in person, at last.

I am hoping this year to overcome some of my many anxieties that manifest as I watch the Nats play. But you all possibly could help with one really big one.

Is it really the kiss of death for the Nats to be so prominently touted as World Series favorites by so many this year? Granted, Davey, with his "WS or Bust", has helped, and granted they are a darn good team anyway, but superstitious folks like me figure that teams pegged from the get-go to take it all don't often succeed.

So, anyone know how the SI favorites/cover teams have done the past few years, as one data point? Mind you, I'll be satisfied (I think) with a really good year, knowing the playoffs are often a crapshoot, but in terms of setting expectations now, I'd like to know--if anyone knows--whether the preseason favorites usually fall short or fulfill their "destinies"

pk24, I would say the same except spring training is the time for the 3B coach to learn what his runners can do. I'll be more upset if he is that aggressive in the regular season. Bo Porter was overly aggressive when he first started.

Did anyone see that Brad Peacock was named the #4 starter for the Stros?

It'll be a tough division to pitch in, but good for him. He had a rough time in AAA in the A's org, (seems like all Nats pitching prospects struggle in the As minor league system) but seems to have righted his ship this spring.

2:27 p.m. -- And now Gio is done for the day (and the spring). His final line: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 66 pitches, 39 strikes. Good stuff from the lefty. And with that, I am outta here. I need to head to Orlando to tape tonight's debut episode of "The Baseball Show" on Comcast SportsNet. More details coming on the blog later this afternoon, but be sure to tune in at 11 p.m. tonight and every Thursday night this season to watch the show. It's been a blast -- talk to you all from Washington!

Like Ghost, I'm mystified by the allegation that Suzuki calls a better game than Ramos. I'd be interested in knowing what that statement was based on."

Bob Boone, former catcher now Nats FO guy, was asked on the ESPN broadcast to compare the two catchers, Ramos and Suzuki. The first words out of his mouth were (I paraphrase) "They're very different catchers. Suzuki is a great blocker of balls and handles the pitching staff particularly well." That would imply that he's better than Ramos, wouldn't it?

Sports Illustrated just arrived. Stras on the cover. Prediction that our boys win the Serious.

Wow.

In other (non) news, there's a piece in the Washington Post weekend section tomorrow about six Nats fans. I'm one of them. I didn't think they'd cut my dog out of the photo that I sent from us at Pups in the Park. We don't take photos of ourselves at the games and it was the only one I had. So skip the photos and have fun reading the article.

Steve McCatty answers dumb, tired questions very well. Hey, you guys! Did you know that we don't have many lefties in the pen? Shocked! Whatever will we do? Also tried to bait him on pitch counts. Completely sensible, logical answer.

Mac, just expressing my opinion on whether your data is meaningful to the question of whether Zook calls a better game than Ramos. I think it's a stretch to interpret Boone's comment that way, that's all. Nothing personal.

Mac, relax. You ended your quote of the Boone interview (which I really appreciated learning about by the way), with a question -- "That would imply that he's better than Ramos, wouldn't it?" So don't get bent out of shape if people answer your question and don't agree with you. We're all just trying to make the time between now and Monday at 1:05 pm go faster.

Post a Comment

About the Author

Mark Zuckerman has covered the Nationals since the franchise arrived in D.C. He's been a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America since 2001 and is a Hall of Fame voter. Email mzuckerman@comcastsportsnet.com.