Thursday, December 1, 2016

Weather Honeymoon Is Over - December Will Feel Like January

38 F. high temperature in St. Cloud yesterday.30 F. average high on December 1.33 F. high on December 1, 2015.

December 2, 1985:
Record low highs are set in north and east central Minnesota with
temperatures ranging from the single digits below zero to the singles
digits above. Alexandria was the cold spot with a high of 4 degrees
Fahrenheit below zero. Other record low high temperatures included
Redwood Falls with 3 below, Long Prairie with zero, and Litchfield and
Little Falls with 5 degrees above zero.December 2, 1982: A record high of 63 degrees is set at the Twin Cities.

After a Warm 2016 December Will Bring Payback

"Winter
is nature’s way of saying, "Up yours." wrote Robert Byrne. Then again,
the atmosphere doesn't play favorites. It reacts to forcings: a low sun
angle, long nights, interactions with oceans, arctic ice & CO2.
Seemingly chaotic and infinitely complex, weather results from uneven
heating and cooling; an atmosphere in search of equilibrium which never
quite comes.

But there CAN be payback!

Long stretches of
abnormally warm weather are often followed by jabs of brutally cold air.
We just enjoyed 2 Octobers in a row; November was 10.4F warmer than
average in the Twin Cities. Minnesota is due for a "correction". And
it's coming.

Like ocean swells breaking in a rising tide bitter
air won't arrive all at once. By the end of next week, teens and 20s. By
mid-December we may dip below 0F.

Too much cold air arriving too
fast can push the storm track south/east of MSP. Latest model runs
suggest heavy snow falling on Iowa & Wisconsin Wednesday/Thursday of next week. A very close call.

It was a nice long vacation from wind chill. Almost time to dig out the parkas and welcome winter!

Ouch.
Other words came to mind, but I'm trying to keep this all PG. It's only
a (GFS) forecast, but if the NOAA's premiere, long-range, global model
verifies air temperatures by December 17 may be in the -10 to -20F range
across Minnesota; maybe -30s for the Dakotas - with subfreezing air
reaching the Gulf Coast and northern Florida. I'm not convinced it's
going to get this cold but there's little doubt the honeymoon is just
about over. Old Man Winter is itching for payback.

84-Hour Forecast.
The animation above shows hour by hour predicted precipitation and
isobars into Sunday evening. Rain and snow showers linger for northern
New England; a cold rain blossoms by Saturday over Texas with a shield
of rain advancing into the Mid South, Midwest and Ohio Valley, mixed
with snow from the Texas Panhandle into Iowa and Minnesota Sunday.
Source: Tropicaltidbits.com.

10-Day Snowfall Potential.
Here is the GFS solution, showing plowable snows downwind of the Great
Lakes, far northern Minnesota and the higher terrain of the Pacific
Northwest by Sunday morning, December 11. Animation: AerisWeather.

A Balmy November.
All those cities with red dots experienced the warmest November on
record, in most cases dating back to the late 1800s. Map: NOAA NCDC and
Aeris AMP.

November Precipitation.
The wettest weather last month was observed from northern California
into western Oregon and Washington State. Significant rains fell fromm
Texas into the Mid South late in the month, but not enough to erase an
extended and debilitating drought.

November Precipitation Departure From Normal.
The Upper Midwest and coastal Pacific Northwest was considerably wetter
than average last month, but drier than average weather prevailed for
much of the eastern USA.Top 10 Driest November.
Florida gets the Goldest Dust Award with 8 cities experiencing one of
the 10 driest Novembers on record. The pattern is shifting; the arrival
of much colder Canadian air capable of spinning up more numerous,
intense (and wet) storms from coast to coast in the weeks ahead.

Serious Catching Up To Do.
A couple of storms won't pull the southeastern USA out of extreme to
exceptional drought. It will take the better part of 2-3 months of
consistently wetter than average conditions to recharge soil moisture,
lakes, rivers and reservoirs.

Extreme Tornado Outbreaks Are Happening More Often Across the U.S.
Is there a climate connection or is this a meteorological coincidence?
It's unclear. But wind shear (helicity) is on the increase, creating an
environment more ripe for tornadoes. Gizmodo reports: "Tornadoes
that come in bunches are on the rise in the United States, according to
a new study. Though it might be tempting to blame climate change,
scientists aren’t entirely sure what’s causing this troubling trend.
From 1965 to 2015, the frequency of tornado outbreaks—that is, six or
more tornadoes that occur in close succession—has increased in the
continental United States, according to a new study published in the
journal Science. Alarmingly, these extreme weather clusters have caused
nearly 80 percent of tornado-related fatalities between 1972 and 2010.
The Columbia Engineering scientists who conducted this research say
tornado outbreaks are not just increasing in frequency over time,
they’re also increasing in terms of severity. The scientists are at a
loss to explain why this is happening, and say further research is
warranted..."

Photo credit: "A pair of tornadoes seen near Pilger, Nebraska, in June 2014". (Image: Eric Anderson/AP).

Tornado Swarms Are On The Rise - But Don't Blame Climate Change. Then again, we don't know what we don't know. Eric Roston provides more context at Bloomberg: "...Researchers
generally expect that CAPE may mean more extreme storms. The other
major ingredient in these violent storms is vertical wind shear, the
phenomenon of wind direction and intensity shifting with altitude.
Unlike CAPE, shear hasn’t been projected to change much with global
warming. What they found—"the wrinkle," as lead author Michael Tippett
put it—was wind shear tracked the tornado-outbreak trends more closely
than CAPE. "Who do I blame for the trend, is it the CAPE or is it the
wind shear? I think a lot of people, including us, would have expected
CAPE. That's not what we see. So that's why it's a wrinkle..."

Graphic credit above: "The
number of tornadoes spawned in outbreaks has been increasing, according
to researchers at Columbia University and Rockefeller University.
Tornado strength is measured on the Fujita scale, with F5 being the most
powerful." Michael K. Tippett and Joel E. Cohen, Nature Communications, February 2016.

Busiest Atlantic Hurricane Season Since 2012. Details via NOAA: "As
the Atlantic, eastern Pacific and central Pacific 2016 hurricane
seasons end today, NOAA scientists said that all three regions saw
above-normal seasons. For the Atlantic, this was the first above-normal
season since 2012. The Atlantic saw 15 named storms during 2016,
including 7 hurricanes (Alex, Earl, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, Nicole,
and Otto), 3 of which were major hurricanes (Gaston, Matthew and
Nicole). NOAA’s updated hurricane season outlook in August called for 12
to 17 named storms, including 5 to 8 hurricanes, with 2 to 4 of those
predicted to become major hurricanes. Five named storms made landfall in
the United States during 2016, the most since 2008 when six storms
struck. Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Matthew struck South
Carolina. Tropical Storms Colin and Julia, as well as Hurricane Hermine,
made landfall in Florida. Hermine was the first hurricane to make
landfall in Florida since Wilma in 2005..."

GOES-R Is Now GOES-16! Good news from NOAA NESDIS: "November
29, 2016, NOAA's GOES-R satellite executed its final liquid apogee
engine burn without anomaly. This has placed the satellite approximately
22,000 miles away with an inclination of 0.0 degrees, meaning it has
reached geostationary orbit. GOES-R is now GOES-16! Later today, GOES-16
will perform its second stage solar array deployment, releasing the
solar array yoke and solar pointing platform. In the days that follow,
the software will be transitioned from the 'orbit raising' mission phase
to 'operational,' several maneuvers will be conducted to adjust the
satellites precise orbit, and the magnetometer boom will be deployed.
Testing and calibration of GOES-16 will then begin."

U.S. Military Prepares For The Next Frontier: Space War. CNN reports : "Since
man first explored space, it has been a largely peaceful environment.
But now US adversaries are deploying weapons beyond Earth's atmosphere,
leading the US military to prepare for the frightening prospect of war
in space. "As humans go out there, there has always been conflict.
Conflict in the Wild West as we move in the West ... conflict twice in
Europe for its horrible world wars," Gen. John Hyten, head of US
Strategic Command, told CNN. "So, every time humans actually physically
move into that, there's conflict, and in that case, we'll have to be
prepared for that." Today, the US depends on space more than any other
nation..."

The Long, Politically Fraught History of Seeds in the U.S. Remember when the government used to give seeds away? Here's a clip from a story, courtesy of Tedium and Atlas Obscura: "When you’re looking to plant a fresh urban garden, it’s natural to hit your local store and buy a bunch of tomato seeds, perhaps some carrot seeds, and maybe you’re in the mood for some spice, so you add a couple of habanero seeds to the cart.
Soon, you might plant these seeds in the ground, without even giving a
second thought to the fact that you showed your support to the
commercial seed industry. It’s a heckuva lot larger than you’d think, bringing in $45 billion globally
each year according to the American Seed Trade Association. Now, you
might be wondering to yourself, “Wait, $45 billion? How? Can’t
commercial farmers just use the seeds left over by the plants they
grow?” Well, this issue is way more complicated than that. And, largely,
you can thank genetically modified crops, and, more specifically, the
1980 Supreme Court case that paved the way for them..."

Study Finds Conservative and GOP Support for Clean Energy. Here's an excerpt from Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "...Among
the findings in the survey was widespread support for solar power and
for state utility rules known as net metering that ease the path both
for homeowners to add solar and dairy farmers to generate electricity
from manure digesters. Other key findings:

70% of
voters surveyed believe the U.S. should put more emphasis on wind energy
production, and 76% support increased solar production. More than half
of those polled think the country should put less emphasis on coal, with
just 23% favoring more emphasis on coal.

Republican,
Democrat and independent voters all show strong support for adoption of
an energy optimization standard in their state, under which utilities
are required to help customers reduce energy consumption through energy
efficiency programs and products..."

Image credit: Xcel Energy.

Q&A: How Political Changes Will Impact The Market for Microgrids. We don't think twice about relying on local sources for food, why not energy? Here's an excerpt from Midwest Energy News: "...Microgrids
don’t just supply electricity. Microgrids offer resilience and
protection against long-term outages. That value must have some sort of
price attached to it, there has to be a way to monetize it. Some states,
like New York, are working on pricing for services based on a range of
values including things like resiliency and sustainability. Minnesota
pioneered this concept with value-of-solar pricing...."

Photo credit: "Surveying equipment as part of a microgrid demonstration and competition."Clean Energy Gains Ground - But Old Dirty Habits Die Hard. Here's the intro from Reuters: "Solar
power is becoming so cheap so fast that in Abu Dhabi it's now less
costly to produce a unit of energy from the sun than from oil, leading
energy experts said this week. But that doesn’t mean a global switch to renewable energy will be inevitable or speedy, they told a London conference. Difficult
and sometimes unexpected problems still stand in the way, including
pension funds heavily invested in fossil fuels, upfront costs for clean
power, political flip-flops in key nations, and the lobbying prowess of
old energy companies..."See What People of 1967 Imagined The World Would Be Like in 1999.
Is this a young Bill Gates pondering Windows back in the 60s? Wait, my
PC still looks like this, come to think of it. The video from Atlas Obscura is worth checking out. As Yogi Berra said: forecasts are hard, especially about the future: "...This
short film, produced in 1967 by the Philco-Ford Corporation, a maker of
battery-powered tech, imagines the distant future of the year 1999.
Amid all the mid-century-modern set dressing, they actually got a lot of
things right. In this “society of tomorrow,” we can see precursors to
personal computers, email, FaceTime, podcasts (complete with the 2x
speed feature), online shopping, 3D imaging and more..."

Ivanka Trump, Climate Czar? At this point nothing would surprise me - my fingers are crossed. Here's an excerpt from a story at Politico: "...Ivanka,
35, Trump’s avatar among the moneyed left-wing elite, is now poised to
be the first “first daughter” in modern history to play a larger public
role than the first lady. And she’s positioning herself exactly as she
did that weekend — as a bridge to moderates and liberals disgusted and
depressed with the tone and tenor of the new leader of the free world.
And the ambitious daughter, who once plotted her career around
international brand domination, is planning to take on an even heavier
lift. Ivanka wants to make climate change — which her father has called a
hoax perpetuated by the Chinese — one of her signature issues, a source
close to her told Politico. The source said Ivanka is in the early
stages of exploring how to use her spotlight to speak out on the issue..."

Photo credit: "Ivanka Trump wants to make climate change one of her signature issues, a source close to her told POLITICO." AP Photo.

Meteorologist Paul Douglas Talks Climate Change Under Trump. My thanks to Jim Poyser at NUVO in Indianapolis. Here's an excerpt of a recent interview: "...It
is going to be really hard to keep that whole hoax mentality going as
the symptoms become more frequent and egregious. Climate change is a
slow-motion transformation. The seas are rising slowly. Seasons are
getting longer, and that's been a gradual process. But we're getting
clubbed over the head with greater frequency. The United States has seen
six separate 1000-year floods since October of 2015. My first instinct
is to give President-elect Trump a chance. Give him the space to adapt
his worldview. He may decide the costs are too high to pull out of the
Paris Agreement, or the costs are too high to pull out of the Clean
Power Plan. On the same level, it doesn't matter who's in the White
House or heading up the EPA. The clean energy economy ... that train has
left the station and it is not going to be derailed. And the reason is
pure economics. Decarbonization is not going to come about through a
political kumbaya moment in Washington D.C. Decarbonization is going to
come about because of economics and energy security..."Meteorologist Connects Weather Data, Climate Dots. My thanks to RepublicEn for highlighting "Caring for Creation" and our efforts to frame the climate threat/opportunity for a faith-based audience: "...Douglas
intends to give President-elect Donald Trump "space to adapt his
worldview" on climate change. "If in fact this becomes a rabid, climate
change-denying administration, it will go against the grain of much of
what the GOP has done in previous incarnations," he said, citing the
environmental accomplishments of Presidents Richard Nixon, Ronald
Reagan, and Teddy Roosevelt. "There are still a lot of Teddy Roosevelt
conservatives out there who believe that conservation should in fact
apply to the very thing that sustains us," he said."

Trump Defense Secretary Favorite "Gets Climate Change". Here's the intro to an explainer at Climate Home: "US
defense secretary candidate James Mattis understands the relationship
between climate change and global security, according to a longtime
military colleague. Retired US Marine Corps brigadier general Stephen
Cheney said the willingness of Donald Trump’s head of defence to resist
ideological pressure to reject climate science could have a profound
effect on the nation’s security. “There’s a fair percentage of conflicts
today that have a linkage to climate change that was not previously
there,” he said. These include the Arab Spring and Syrian civil war –
two insurrections that define world politics and security today..."

Photo credit: "General James Mattis is one of the front runners for US defence secretary under Donald Trump." (Pic: US CENTCOM).Climate Change Will Stir "Unimaginable" Refugee Crisis, Says Military. We may just be getting a preview of coming attractions, according to a story at The Guardian: "Climate change
is set to cause a refugee crisis of “unimaginable scale”, according to
senior military figures, who warn that global warming is the greatest
security threat of the 21st century and that mass migration will become
the “new normal”. The generals said the impacts of climate change were
already factors in the conflicts driving a current crisis of migration
into Europe, having been linked to the Arab Spring, the war in Syria and the Boko Haram terrorist insurgency. Military
leaders have long warned that global warming could multiply and
accelerate security threats around the world by provoking conflicts and
migration. They are now warning that immediate action is required..." (File photo: AFP).

How Do We Deal With The Prospect of Increased Climate Migration? Here's the intro to a story at The Conversation: "On average, one person is displaced each second by a disaster-related hazard. In global terms, that’s about 26 million
people a year. Most move within their own countries, but some are
forced across international borders. As climate change continues, more
frequent and extreme weather events are expected to put more people in
harm’s way. In the Pacific region alone, this year’s Cyclone Winston was the strongest ever to hit Fiji, destroying whole villages. Last year, Cyclone Pam
displaced thousands of people in Vanuatu and Tuvalu – more than 70% of
Vanuatu’s population were left seeking shelter in the storm’s immediate
aftermath...."

Without The Clean Power Plan, Are Nuclear Plants Essential to Combat Climate Change?Utility Dive has the article: "Renewables
and distributed resources can help the U.S. significantly reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. But a big debate remains over
the role of nuclear power in that transition, especially without the
Clean Power Plan. Hawaii intends to get to
100% renewables by 2045 without nuclear power. California, New York, and
other states have targeted 50% renewables by 2050, with or without it.
And a 100% renewables power mix without nuclear is possible for nearly every nation by 2050, according to Stanford professor Mark Jacobson's Solutions Project. But renowned climatologist James Hansen, billionaire Bill Gates, and a roster of other voices say only an energy mix that includes nuclear power can beat climate change..." (Image credit: Nuclear Regulatory Commission).

He Created a Beloved Blog About The Melting Arctic. But It Got Harder and Harder To Write. Chris Mooney explains at The Washington Post - here's an excerpt: "...Curlin
says the last summer — the second lowest on record for sea ice — was
particularly rough to chart, adding that “it depresses me” that
scientists still don’t fully understand why the ice wound up being so
low in 2016. And the depressed levels continued past the summer — when
Curlin actually announced
he was stepping back in late November, it was amid a seemingly
unprecedented burst of early winter heat in the Arctic that drove sea
ice down to all-time record low levels. These record-low ice levels
continued Tuesday, with 2016 ice extent far below where it was even
during the prior record low year of 2012, showing the ice is struggling
to refreeze as winter deepens..."

What Happens When The Ice Disappears?Pacific Standard reports: "...In
the age of global warming, one thing is certain: There will be less ice
and snow. Glaciers, ice shelves, and sea ice are melting away, and
there has been a dramatic drop-off in the number of snow-covered days
around the world, as documented by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab.
Since 1967, spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has dwindled
by about three million square kilometers.The loss of Earth’s reflective
white surfaces will intensify the spiral of global warming. Darker
surfaces absorb more incoming solar radiation. That warmth delays the
onset of winter and hastens the arrival of spring..."

Photo credit: "Quark
Expedition guides stand on the shore of Paulet Island, near the tip of
the Antarctic Peninsula, as a pair of inflatable dinghies maneuver
through icebergs. Climate scientists are keeping a close eye on
Antarctica’s coastal ice masses, as a warming ocean threatens to
destabilize huge sections of the cryosphere in this region. According to some recent studies, the warming could reach a tipping point that would result in several feet of global sea level rise by the end of the century." (Photo: Bob Berwyn)

The Raging Wildfires In The Southeast Could Be a Glimpse Into the Future. Here's an excerpt from a Washington Post story: "...In
the areas experiencing the drought, the temperatures have been well
above normal,” he said, adding that high temperatures can also lead to
more water evaporation from plants and soil, making conditions even
drier. That said, Prestemon
cautioned, it’s difficult to attribute any isolated event — like a
single drought or wildfire — solely to climate change. Weather events
and natural disasters are generally the combination of a complex set of
factors, which may include long-term patterns of climate change, but
also chance and natural variability in climate and weather systems. Even so, the ongoing events in the Southeast may provide some insight into the region’s future..."

Photo credit: "Fire erupts on the side of The Spur on Highway 441 between Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge, Tenn., Monday, Nov. 28 In Gatlinburg." (Jessica Tezak/Knoxville News Sentinel via AP).The Crops of the Future. Climate
change, population growth - how will macro trends impact the crops we
need to sustain the world and avoid widespread famine and dislocation?
Here's an excerpt of an article at TakePart: "...But
before doomsday, there’s just today—and plant breeders have plenty of
work to do. Across the globe, scientists and breeders working at the
seed banks that have been duplicated at Svalbard have a laborious job:
making sure the world can continue to grow enough food no matter what
curve balls climate change throws our way. Agriculture faces a tall
order: Maintain food security as the population rises by an additional 3 billion people by 2050, requiring an estimated 60 percent increase in global food production.
Farmers are already grappling with increased instances of drought,
floods, and record heat waves, not to mention degraded soil. “We seem to
be entering a period of relatively unstable climate, and that’s the
hardest thing to breed for," said Matthew Reynolds of the International
Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. “It’s exciting [work], but a lot of
people’s food security depends on it, which makes it urgent...” (Photo credit: Rob Koch).