Sunday, July 25, 2010

MIAMI - Hispanics worry more than most Americans about losing jobs and paying bills. But they place a high importance on education and expect their children to go to college - even if most of them don't expect the United States to elect a Latino president in the next 20 years.

An Associated Press-Univision poll of more than 1,500 Latinos shows them eager to blend into American society while still holding onto their cultural identity. They are likewise torn between hopes for tomorrow and daily doses of financial stress.

"The situation is bad now, but I have faith that this is going to change," says Yadilka Aramboles, a 32-year-old Miamian from the Dominican Republic.

She eyes her three young children playing on the sidewalk and sees college in their future - even though her husband's modest accountant's income barely covers the family's most basic expenses.

"For me and my children, I aspire to something more," Aramboles says.

America's 47 million Hispanics face acute economic and political pressures.

The recession that erased millions of jobs has taken an especially heavy toll on Latinos, whose average income is lower than many other groups. And the Hispanic community has been jolted by election-season debate over the country's estimated 11 million illegal immigrants, a debate that has increased in intensity following Arizona's enactment of a law that requires police, while enforcing other laws, to question a person's immigration status if officers have a reasonable suspicion he or she is in the country illegally.

About three-quarters of the nation's illegal immigrants are Hispanic, according to the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center.

The poll, also sponsored by The Nielsen Company and Stanford University, shows that Hispanics have complex beliefs about how best to fit into America.

Just over half, 54 percent, say it is important that they change to assimilate into society, yet about two-thirds, 66 percent, say Latinos should maintain their distinct culture.

Gary Segura, a political scientist from Stanford who helped conduct the study, said those two views are not necessarily at odds. He said other, better established ethnic groups cling to their traditions, adding, "Identity is multidimensional, and people can see themselves as Hispanic and as Americans."

"It's important to survive in whatever land we're in," said Aniela Sanchez, 30, a freelance editor in Passaic, N.J., and child of a Puerto Rican mother and Dominican father. "But every culture has its beautiful mannerisms, songs, food, and you have to take pride in who you are."

The survey reveals a cautious optimism that brighter opportunities lie ahead - and a conviction that the way to get there is better education.

Just over half expect it will be easier for their children than it's been for them to find good jobs and buy houses. More than eight in 10 say the most important goal for girls and boys graduating high school is to continue their education, with most saying the aim should be a four-year college. Ninety-four percent say they expect their children to actually go to college - more than double the number who say their own parents expected them to do so.

"There's many ways they can succeed here," Ana Mendoza, 33, of Mission, Texas, said of her four children. To achieve that, she says, "it's an obligation to finish school."

Yet the poll highlights a double-barreled problem: As a group, Hispanics have been hit disproportionately hard by the economic slump and are less educated than others.

Forty-five percent say they or a family member have lost a job since last September, with similar numbers or more expressing deep worries about becoming unemployed, paying bills and saving for college. By both measures, that is worse than the downturn's impact on the overall population, according to recent AP-GfK polls.

Signaling concern for the future, 36 percent of Hispanics expect it to be harder for their children to raise a family than it's been for them.

"It's just a struggle. We're cutting back, living with less, adopting to circumstances in a way we really didn't have to in the '80s and '90s," said Amber Thomson, 34, who is half-Hispanic and lives in Menifee, Calif.

Despite their esteem for school, 37 percent of Hispanics are not high school graduates, compared with 14 percent of the overall population, Census Bureau data show. Twelve percent of Hispanics but 27 percent overall have college degrees or more.

Among Hispanics, there are significant differences between those born here and immigrants, who tend to have rosier views of their new country. Similar schisms are evident between citizens and non-citizens, and between those who mostly speak English or Spanish with their families.

Those from abroad are likelier than U.S.-born Latinos to expect their children to attend college and to have better lifestyles than they do. Yet reflecting their lesser integration into American society, 76 percent of immigrants say their well-being depends on other Hispanics succeeding - about double the number of American-born Latinos who say so. Those from abroad are likelier to express financial worries, to say it's important to blend into society, and to say at least half their friends are other Hispanics.

Within the Hispanic community, variety abounds. Forty-six percent were born in the U.S. and 32 percent in Mexico, with the rest scattered among Caribbean islands and Central and South America. Six in 10 are Catholic, and about one in seven consider themselves Protestant evangelicals. Fewer than one in five immigrants say they arrived in the past 10 years, while nearly a quarter have been here at least three decades.

The poll detected a new wariness about the national mood in an election year in which immigration has become a hot issue.

Until April 23, when Arizona enacted a law requiring local police officers to check the documentation of people they suspect might be illegal immigrants, 39 percent of English-speaking Hispanics said it is important to blend into society. Of those interviewed after April 23, some 54 percent said so. The increase is telling because English-speaking Latinos tend to be more involved in American politics than predominantly Spanish speakers.

In a different measure of Hispanics' perceptions of their standing, 29 percent expect a Latino president to be elected in the next 20 years - half the number who think a woman will go to the White House.

The AP-Univision Poll was conducted from March 11 to June 3 by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. Using a sample of Hispanic households provided by The Nielsen Company, 1,521 Hispanics were interviewed in English and Spanish, mostly by mail but also by telephone and the Internet. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Stanford University's participation in the study was made possible by a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Associated Press-Univision Poll of Hispanic adults was conducted by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago from March 11-June 3. It is based on a nationally representative random sample of 1,521 Hispanic adults. Data were gathered via mail, the Internet and telephone. The majority of interviews were completed via mail (82 percent); 15 percent were completed by via telephone and four percent via the Internet.

The sponsors and funders of the project include The Associated Press, Univision Communications, Inc., The Nielsen Company and Stanford University. Stanford University's participation was made possible by a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Fifty-three percent of interviews were conducted in English and 47 percent were done in Spanish.

All respondents were offered a monetary incentive to complete the study.

The sample of Hispanic households was provided by The Nielsen Company. Nielsen conducts an annual survey of Hispanic households in the United States for its television viewing ratings services. The sample frame for this survey incorporated 3,427 households that were previously contacted by Nielsen and estimated to be Hispanic.

The response rate for the original Nielsen survey is estimated to be 90 percent. The cumulative response rate for the AP-Univision survey was estimated to be approximately 40 percent.

The final sample was statistically adjusted to be a more accurate representation of all Hispanic householders in the United States based on geography and Hispanic residential penetration, educational attainment and language usage by the householder, as well as the householder's age, sex and country of origin.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all Hispanics in the U.S. were polled.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.