6pm Tuesday Sept. 29 Heavy Rain Update

Rain will continue to intensify this evening, especially across the eastern Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. This page will continue to be updated through the evening.

Rain continues to develop across the Finger Lakes region of New York, along with all of New England, The Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley.

The key at this point is nailing down where the heaviest rain will fall overnight. This is often a difficult task in heavy rain events, but the forecast models seem to be in fairly decent agreement that the heaviest rain will fall across the Finger Lakes and Central New York.

Widespread rain totals of 2-4 inches are likely across our region, with slightly lower amounts further west. There are numerous models indicating a band of particularly heavy rain, where as much as 6 inches could fall. The highest probability of this band location is from the central Southern Tier, through the southeastern Finger Lakes and into Central New York and the southern Adirondacks.

Not everyone in the red band will see that much rain, but the potential for significant flash flooding is real for Elmira, Ithaca, Cortland, Norwich, Oneida and other locations in those areas. Of course, this is just a forecast, and the actual location of the band may end up being slightly further west, or east. The locations in the dark green shading should be aware and prepare for possible flooding as well.

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.).
When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making goat milk soap, running until his legs burn, or playing with his three young boys.