Twenty thousand Romanians want to come to Britain ahead of the borders being
opened at the end of this year, independent research seen by The Telegraph
has found.

The figures from a leading political research body in Romania are the first official indications of the likely impact on the UK from the lifting of migration restrictions on people coming to work in Britain on December 31.

Ministers have admitted there are estimates for the likely number coming to the UK, but are declining to release them because of the Government hugely underestimated the number of Poles coming to the UK when borders were lifted in 2004.

A Foreign Office-commissioned report into the impact of the lifting of the restrictions - -which has purposely ignored actual forecasts - is due to be published in the next few weeks.

A National Migration Poll from the Infopolitic Center for Studies and Research in Romania found that seven per cent of people living there want to work abroad in the European Union.

Of that figure, eight per cent wanted to work in the UK in the next six months. Given that there are around 4million people of working age in the country, it means that around 22,000 want to come to work in the UK.

The Romanian Government seized on the figures as proof that fears of a wave of migrants coming to the UK after restrictions are lifted at the end of this year.

Ion Jinga, the Romanian ambassador to London, said the survey showed that “the UK is not a preferred destination for Romanians seeking for a job”.

He said the survey “entirely confirms what the Prime Minister of Romania, the Romanian Foreign Minister and myself have repeatedly said, that the UK is not a preferred destination for Romanians seeking for a job”.

He said: “The estimated number of Romanians that will eventually chose Britain in the future is between 15,000 and 20,000. This is very, very similar to what I have advanced previously when talking to The Telegraph.

"But even this figure can be moderated by some other factors, such as the need to speak a foreign language, to have a clear prospect for getting a job, what your family would do, to have financial resources to rent a house, or to be ready to leave your friends and the environment you grew up in.

“The real benefit of lifting of restrictions will be for those Romanians already living in the UK, who will not anymore feel treated as second-class European, citizens and will not be, targets for discrimination.

“In their overwhelming majority, they are net contributors to the British social security and revenue systems, as more than 70 per cent of those, who came to, the UK are aged 18 – 35, with very few of them claiming health care, social housing or benefits.

“We all know that today Eastern Europeans do not get a very good press in Britain but I believe that the truth has to be said and reason must prevail over the emotional approaches.”

However the estimates were disputed by MigrationWatch, the anti-imigration campaign group which has forecast that around 50,000 people a year for the next five years, will come to the UK from Romania and Bulgaria when restrictions are lifted.

Sir Andrew Green, from MigrationWatch, said: “We don’t believe it. What these calculations completely omit is the presence of two million Romanians in Spain and Italy where there are high levels of unemployment.

“There must be a significant risk that they will decide to relocate to northern European countries such as Germany, the UK and the Netherlands next year.”

A Home Office spokesman said: "It is not credible to accurately forecast likely inflows from Romania and Bulgaria once restrictions are lifted, because it is dependent on too many uncertainties to draw robust conclusions.

"So rather than produce speculative projections, we are focusing on our work to cut out the abuse of free movement and address the pull factors that drive European immigration to Britain.”