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college football week four

4-5 picking up 0.30 units last week. Losing record but not losing units, so I guess I can live with that. Headed back to work this weekend after being off a month with broken ribs, not sure I will be able to though. I would really like to know how Tony Romo can possibly play this week. They must be going to dope him up real good. Getting all my plays in early this week. Here is what I got for the whole weekend. Not going to read anything this week, just going to go by what I have seen so far this year and my gut feelings.

THURSDAY NIGHT

NC State +7½ vs Cincinnati (2 unit play)…………Offhand I think NC State might just be the better team here. Their QB replacement for the guy who went to Wisconsin is not too back. Playing at Cincy is not worth this many points. I will gladly take them. Cincy wins 24-20.

FRIDAY NIGHT

C Florida +2½ vs BYU (2 unit play)………Come on?? I am not a sucker. I know BYU looked bad last week against their rival, but they were/are supposed to be pretty good this year. Only laying 2½ AT HOME. Sounds like you would have to be crazy not to take BYU. Well, call me crazy. C Florida 30 BYU 24

SATURDAY

Notre Dame -7 vs Pittsburgh (3 unit BEST BET)……….I love going against Pitt last week and taking Iowa, but it took a small miracle for that win. Notre Dame finally put it together and crushed a decent Michigan State team. I am not sure what is wrong with Pitt, but they may bet booed out of their own stadium this week as soon as they fall behind and even back when Pitt was good, the Irish always seemed to have their number. This has the potential to get ugly. Notre Dame 45 Pittsburgh 20.

Miami-Florida -12 vs Kansas State (3 unit BEST BET)…………I think the Hurricanes got a great coach who will bring this team back to where they used to be real fast, more than likely even this year. Miami really manhandles Ohio State last week. Ordinarily you would think letdown for this game, but their coach will not let that happen. I am not going to set around and wait to see if this team is for real, I am jumping on them now before the bookmakers start adjusting their lines. They may not murder them, but they will win by at least two touchdowns. I just have a really good feeling about this team this year. You will see me on them almost every week unless the line is a joke. Miami take care of business at home 35-17.

LSU -5½ vs West Virginia (two unit play)………..There have been plenty of good teams go into West Virginia and walk away loser over the years. Although I feel WVU is a very good team, I don’t think there is anything special about them like previous editions. I have said it before and I will say it again….I love LSU’s defense. It is just a question of can they score enough to cover this week. I say yes. I love the fact that it is under a touchdown. WVU’s defense will wear down as this game goes on. I don’t look for their offense to have too many long, drives and plenty of 1-2-3 punts. LSU gets it done in the fourth quarter and get the cover. Lets call it LSU 24 WVU 13.

Toledo +2 vs Syracuse (two unit play)…………Here is another game where they are begging you to talk Syracuse, very similar to BYU listed above. A few years ago the MAC conference did very well and everybody was betting on them. Recently they kind on went back to their old ways. They seem to be back this year giving those big name teams fits. I am a Pitt fan and I really think the Big East just plain sucks anymore. No wonder they are all trying to escape. Toledo hung with and should have beat Ohio State and they were in that game against Boise all the way even though they did not cover. Boise is a covering machine again this year. Syracuse has two huge wins (sarcasm) vs Wake Forest and Rhode Island…both by seven points. I just think we need to admit that Toledo is the better team here. The only thing that gives the Cuse a chance is playing at home, but I don’t think that will be enough. Toledo 30 Syracuse 24

THE REST OF THESE ARE ONE UNIT PLAYS……

E Michigan +28½ vs Penn State…………Why not? Have a gut feeling. E Michigan is one of those teams that always loses but hangs around. Penn State as boring as you can get on offense. If I am wrong about this game, Penn State will win by 50. Usually when I am wrong…..I am way wrong.

Ohio +4½ vs Rutgers………Here we go again taking a small dog…on the road from a small conference playing a big east team. This one scares me a little more than the Toledo pick, but I do like it.

Tulane +10 vs Duke………..I know Duke won last week vs BC, but I think BC has a ton of problems this year, but you still have to give Duke a ton of credit as they always suck. Tulane always sucks as well, but I was so impressed with last weeks thumping of UAB, that I just have to take all those points. Plus can you really trust Duke as a favorite? Probably not. I almost made this a two unit play. Only reason I didn’t is sometimes it comes back to bite me playing theses “chumpy” games.

Boise St -28 vs Tulsa………..Only reason I am playing this is like I said earlier, Boise has been a covering machine. As long as they don’t fall asleep at the wheel they can name this score. Boise 55 Tulsa 17

State just cut it to 20, still in the third quarter. Think I will go to bed now and when I wake up and see the scoreboard, wonder how they came back and got the backdoor cover. One can dream can't they??

Cincy QB too good to bet against at home against a subpar team. I think he started some of the season they went to the BCS bowl game and got thumped by florida. I attend UCF and after watching their games for 5 years i think thats a great play. They score a lot on the road in their thursday/friday matchups and will bounce back after a tough loss to a VASTLY underated FIU team

Saturday love the miami play, mainly because covers experts picked them and i make most of my money fading them. I think WVU gets the job done at home. LSU back to back road games against the top 25 with a subpar offense. Upset brewing in morgantown. I think they look to come out airing the ball around and not take the conservative running approach MSU did. and i dont see how anyone would take duke as 10 point favorites against anybody. Im thinking of laying the ML on Tulane see what happens

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