Nuclear deterrence could restrain N. Korea, Iran

By Barry M. Blechman, Special to CNN

Updated 1639 GMT (2339 HKT) April 30, 2013

Kim Jong Un and North Korea's military55 photos

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets with North Korea's first female fighter jet pilots in this undated photo released by the country's state media on Monday, June 22. He called the women "heroes of Korea" and "flowers of the sky."

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Kim stands on the snow-covered top of Mount Paektu in North Korea in a photo taken by North Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun on April 18 and released the next day by South Korean news agency Yonhap. Kim scaled the country's highest mountain, North Korean state-run media reported, arriving at the summit to tell soldiers that the hike provides mental energy more powerful than nuclear weapons.

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Kim Jong Un, center, poses with soldiers on the snow-covered top of Mount Paektu in an April 18 photo released by South Korean news agency Yonhap.

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Kim visits the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang, North Korea, on April 15 to celebrate the 103rd birth anniversary of his grandfather, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung.

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Kim inspects a drill for seizing an island at an undisclosed location in North Korea in an undated picture released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on February 21.

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Kim speaks during a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this photo released February 19 by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

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A picture released by the North Korean Central News Agency shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appearing without his cane at an event with military commanders in Pyongyang on Tuesday, November 4. Kim, who recently disappeared from public view for about six weeks, had a cyst removed from his right ankle, a lawmaker told CNN.

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Kim is seen walking with a cane in this image released Thursday, October 30, by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

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Kim sits in the pilot's seat of a fighter jet during the inspection.

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This undated photo, released Tuesday, October 14, by the KCNA, shows Kim inspecting a housing complex in Pyongyang, North Korea. International speculation about Kim went into overdrive after he failed to attend events on Friday, October 10, the 65th anniversary of the Workers' Party. He hadn't been seen in public since he reportedly attended a concert with his wife on September 3.

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A picture released by the KCNA shows Kim and his wife watching a performance by the Moranbong Band on Wednesday, September 3, in Pyongyang.

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Kim tours a front-line military unit in this image released Wednesday, July 16, by the KCNA.

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Kim poses for a photo as he oversees a tactical rocket-firing drill in June.

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Kim watches a tactical rocket-firing drill in June.

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A North Korean soldier patrols the bank of the Yalu River, which separates the North Korean town of Sinuiju from the Chinese border town of Dandong, on Saturday, April 26.

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In this photo released Thursday, April 24, by the Korean Central News Agency, Kim smiles with female soldiers after inspecting a rocket-launching drill at an undisclosed location.

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A picture released Tuesday, March 18, by the KCNA shows Kim attending a shooting practice at a military academy in Pyongyang.

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A North Korean soldier uses binoculars on Thursday, February 6, to look at South Korea from the border village of Panmunjom, which has separated the two Koreas since the Korean War.

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A North Korean soldier kicks a pole along the banks of the Yalu River on Tuesday, February 4.

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A photo released by the KCNA on Thursday, January 23, shows the North Korean leader inspecting an army unit during a winter drill.

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Kim inspects the command of an army unit in this undated photo released Sunday, January 12, by the KCNA.

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Kim visits an army unit in this undated photo.

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Kim inspects a military factory in this undated picture released by the KCNA in May 2013.

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Kim visits the Ministry of People's Security in 2013 as part of the country's May Day celebrations.

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A North Korean soldier, near Sinuiju, gestures to stop photographers from taking photos in April 2013.

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North Korean soldiers patrol near the Yalu River in April 2013.

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Kim is briefed by his generals in this undated photo. On the wall is a map titled "Plan for the strategic forces to target mainland U.S."

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Kim works during a briefing in this undated photo.

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In this KCNA photo, Kim inspects naval drills at an undisclosed location on North Korea's east coast in March 2013.

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Kim, with North Korean soldiers, makes his way to an observation post in March 2013.

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Kim uses a pair of binoculars to look south from the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment, near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island, in March 2013.

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Kim is greeted by a soldier's family as he inspects the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment in March 2013.

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Kim is surrounded by soldiers during a visit to the Mu Islet Hero Defense Detachment, also near Taeyonphyong Island, in March 2013.

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Kim arrives at Jangjae Islet by boat to meet with soldiers of the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment in March 2013.

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Soldiers in the North Korean army train at an undisclosed location in March 2013.

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In a photo released by the official North Korean news agency in December 2012, Kim celebrates a rocket's launch with staff from the satellite control center in Pyongyang.

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Kim, center, poses in this undated picture released by North Korea's official news agency in November 2012.

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Kim visits the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground, under construction in Pyongyang, in a photo released in July 2012 by the KCNA.

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A crowd watches as statues of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung and his son Kim Jong Il are unveiled during a ceremony in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an UNHA III rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center in April 2012.

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In April 2012, Pyongyang launched a long-range rocket that broke apart and fell into the sea. Here, the UNHA III rocket is pictured on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.

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– A closer look at the UNHA III rocket on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.

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A military vehicle participates in a parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean soldiers relax at the end of an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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Kim Jong Un applauds as he watches a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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A North Korean soldier stands on a balcony in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean soldiers march during a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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Soldiers board a bus outside a theater in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean performers sit below a screen showing images of leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean soldiers listen to a speech during an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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Members of a North Korean military band gather following an official ceremony at the Kim Il Sung stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean military personnel watch a performance in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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A North Korean controller is seen along the railway line between the Pyongyang and North Pyongan provinces in April 2012.

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A North Korean military honor guard stands at attention at Pyongyang's airport in May 2001.

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Story highlights

Barry Blechman: U.S. never attacked another nation to stop it from becoming a nuclear power

Blechman: Why does it seem that the U.S. has a different strategy toward North Korea and Iran?

He says if deterrence theory worked in the Cold War

Bleckman: Iran's and North Korea's supreme leaders will be deterred, just like the Soviet leaders

Throughout the Cold War, the United States relied on the theory of deterrence for protection against nuclear attack. American leaders believed that so long as the U.S. maintained nuclear forces able to survive a first-strike and retaliate with devastating power against the Soviet Union, Kremlin leaders would be deterred from mounting a nuclear attack.

In retrospect, this arms race was incredibly costly, wasteful and dangerous. If war had started, the two superpowers would have destroyed each other and probably all of humanity.

But deterrence did work. And the U.S. never attacked the Soviet Union or any other nation to stop them from becoming nuclear powers.

So, why does it seem that the U.S. has a different strategy toward North Korea and Iran?

In response to North Korea's recent threats to launch nuclear attacks, the U.S. announced it would bolster missile defenses in Alaska and California and speed the deployment of missile interceptors to Guam. With respect to Iran, President Obama said as recently as March 20: "We will do what is necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining the world's worst weapons.''

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America currently has about 5,000 nuclear weapons. Even though it could retaliate against a hypothetical Iranian or North Korean nuclear attack and obliterate both nations while utilizing only 1 or 2% of its arsenal, the Obama administration is acting as if the theory of deterrence no longer applies. Why?

It appears that the U.S. is treating Iran differently than other countries trying to go nuclear because it perceives Iranian leaders as aggressive religious fanatics willing to sacrifice everything for their goals. After all, Iran supports terrorist organizations, conducts assassinations and bombings, seeks to subvert neighboring countries, and makes fearsome threats against Israel and the U.S.

Similarly, the U.S. seems uncertain about North Korea's young and untested new leader. Pyongyang not only has a history of provocative verbal threats, but it has taken reckless military actions as recently as two years ago, when the North sank a South Korean naval vessel and shelled an island occupied by the South.

But wait -- didn't the Soviet spout dangerous rhetoric and take deadly actions? Didn't some of their leaders threaten to "bury" America and nuke London and Paris? And let's not forget that Leonid Brezhnev launched proxy wars against U.S. friends in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

Yet the Obama administration seems to think that while Soviet leaders were deterred from using their massive arsenal, the Iranians and the North Koreans might not be deterred from using a nuclear force of no more than a handful of weapons at best.

But if deterrence theory is valid, then this double standard is invalid.

Both Iran's and North Korea's supreme leaders will be deterred, just as were successive generations of Soviet leaders. Both would not authorize the use of nuclear weapons, for fear of seeing their nations destroyed, their people wiped out, and their ambitions for themselves and their countries turned to dust.

If deterrence theory is no longer valid, the U.S. had better work harder to achieve President Obama's Nobel Prize-winning goal of a world in which no nation possesses nuclear weapons.

No one can say with great confidence what North Korea's Kim Jong Un will do. While the U.S. needs to be prepared for North Korea to act on Kim's threats of nuclear war, unless he has lost his mind, it seems doubtful that he would follow through and commit national suicide by inviting devastating nuclear retaliation.

Reaching an agreement with Iran seems possible. Such an arrangement would permit Tehran to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, but not to build nuclear weapons. This is Iran's right as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The question is whether Iran and the U.S. can get past decades of conflict, mistrust and suspicions.

But President Obama's threats to use military force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons do not facilitate talks. They only reinforce Tehran's suspicions that America's real goal is to bring down the Iranian regime.