At midnight there were 5 spotted regions on the visible disk. A total of 3 C class events was recorded during the
day.

Region 10205 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10207 was mostly unchanged. Flare: C1.8 at 20:33 UTC.
Region 10208 developed slowly early on, then decayed during the latter half of the day. A weak magnetic delta is evident
in the leading spot section and a minor M class flare is possible. Flares: C2.4/1N at
01:56 and C9.5 at 19:27 UTC.
Region 10209 decayed slowly and lost most of its trailing spots.
New region 10211 emerged on December 1, decayed on December 2 and was spotless by midnight.
New region 10212 rotated into view at the northeast limb early in the day.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 28 - December 2: No obviously geoeffective CMEs noted.

December 2: A bright and large CME was observed in LASCO C2 images beginning at 18:06 UTC. The CME first appeared off of the
northwest limb and became a full halo CME in LASCO C3 images. The CME had a backsided origin.

Coronal holes

A coronal hole in the northern hemisphere could move into a geoeffective position on December 4-5.

Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on December 2. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to
unsettled on December 3-5. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along
east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.

Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering has been included.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

10202

2002.11.24

4

N13W40

0020

BXO

reemerged briefly,
spotless at midnight

10203

2002.11.26

N09W09

plage

10204

2002.11.27

10

N16W26

0020

BXO

reemerged briefly,
only one spot observed
during early afternoon,
spotless at midnight

10205

2002.11.27

1

1

N19W03

0000

AXX

area was near 0020,
classification HSX at
midnight

10206

2002.11.27

S27W22

plage

10207

2002.11.27

20

17

S20E06

0290

EAO

10208

2002.11.29

22

26

N10E35

0170

DAI

beta-gamma-delta

10209

2002.11.30

10

7

S20E35

0170

ESO

10211

2002.12.02

4

S08E04

0020

BXO

now spotless

10212

2002.12.02

4

5

N13E75

0160

CAO

Total spot count:

75

56

SSN:

155

106

Monthly solar cycle data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.11

210.6

106.5

115.5 (+1.5)

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2002.01

226.6

114.1

113.5 (-1.1)

2002.02

205.0

107.4

114.7 (+1.2)

2002.03

179.5

98.4

113.4 (-1.3)

2002.04

189.8

120.7

110.5 (-2.9)

2002.05

178.4

120.8

108.8 (-1.7)

2002.06

148.7

88.3

(106.4 predicted, -2.4)

2002.07

173.5

99.9

(102.8 predicted, -3.6)

2002.08

183.6

116.4

(99.6 predicted, -3.2)

2002.09

175.8

109.3

(96.6 predicted, -3.0)

2002.10

167.0

97.5

(93.1 predicted, -3.5)

2002.11

168.7

95.0

(87.8 predicted, -5.3)

2002.12

147.9 (1)

8.1 (2)

(83.5 predicted, -4.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official
international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and
partly on data from sources noted in solar
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.