After sustaining a succession of setbacks and rejections in the Arab Revolt, Hizballah faces its most agonizing debacle at the hands of its sworn enemies, Israel and the United States, if they go ahead with an operation against Assad’s chemical weapons.

The US and Israel have agreed on the circumstances that would warrant their intervention in Syria’s use of chemical weapons. For now, they are holding off even though Assad promises more air attacks on Lebanon to bully President Michel Sleiman into expelling Syrian rebels.

debkafile reports from western military sources that present in the rocket which exploded in the Aleppo neighborhood of Khan al-Assal Tuesday March 19 were phosphorus, chlorine and Agent 15 or BZ. Although the Assad regime and the Syrian rebels charged each other with firing the rocket, which killed 15-31 people and injured more than a hundred, it was not possible to verify which side was responsible. The White House denied it was the rebels, while Moscow backed Damascus by insisting that it was.

The Syrian conflict spread in earnest Monday, March 18, when the Syrian Air Force conducted bombing runs over Syrian rebel jumping-off bases inside Lebanon and border valleys used for smuggling men and arms into Syria. debkafile reports exclusively: Syrian ruler Bashar Assad Saturday gave Lebanese President Michel Suleiman 48 hours to sack his chief of staff – or else face air attack. The ultimatum expired Monday. Assad may now be preparing similar treatment for Jordan, timing it for President Barack Obama’s visit this week.

The Moscow talks on Syria were stalled by Assad’s defeat by al Qaeda-led rebel forces in the battle for the Euphrates River region. Eastern Syria has slipped into rebel hands with local residents protesting the imposition of strict Sharia law.

Assad has asked Moscow for large numbers of attack helicopters to compensate for his lack of loyal troops. Washington has advised the Russians to think twice before assenting since he may not last beyond summer.

John Kerry begins his stint as US Secretary of State with the recognition that there is only one way to prevent Islamist groups from taking over the Syrian rebel movement while also preserving US influence in the rebel camp: and that is by working with the Russian plan for Syria. debkafile reveals that this plan is based on drawing armistice lines for dividing Syria up into sectors controlled variously by Syrian opposition groups and Assad loyalists. Russia and America will jointly oversee those sectors.

Syrian peace talks are set to open in Moscow on March 5 between the Syrian opposition and Assad regime representatives, debkafile reveals. The opposition realizes that its armed revolt against Bashar Assad has reached its limit and the Syrian ruler is there to stay. Now, most of the fighting opposition to the Assad regime is ready to negotiate terms for a ceasefire as the opening gambit for a political settlement.

The Syrian opposition and rebels have come to terms with their inability to beat Assad’s army on the battlefield and are ready to talk. Assad won’t hear of stepping down and is preparing to run for another presidential term in 2014. Moscow which is hosting the talks stands behind him.

Bashar Assad has evacuated most of the troops of his 5th Army Division from their permanent bases on the Golan opposite Israeli forces and transferred them along with their artillery to Damascus, debkafile’s military sources report. This step was intended by Assad to reinforce the defense of his capital, while at the same time providing the al Qaeda-linked fighters in rebel ranks direct access to the Israel border. In no time, the jihadists are expected to turn their guns and missiles on Israel.

Tehran believes the precision of the attack which killed IRGC General Hassan Shateri is evidence of deep intelligence penetration, and has placed Israel in its sights for payback. DEBKAfile: The general's last assignment was the formation of a guerrilla army of 5,000 Revolutionary Guardsmen and 5,000 Hizballlah operatives to fortify the defenses of Bashar Assad’s governing institutions and secure the main Syria-Lebanon route. Iran is determined to get Hizballah’s advanced weapons transferred from Syria to Lebanon, whatever it takes.

No one is listening to Ali Khamenei when he says there will be no substantial nuclear negotiations until sanctions are lifted on oil revenues and banks. Iran is furnishing the Assad regime with $1 bn per month in aid despite sanctions.

Tuesday night, Feb. 12, the Syrian Air Force began bombing the large al-Jarra air base which rebels led by Islamist battalions conquered near the northern city of Aleppo. Bashar Assad ordered his air force to destroy dozens of its own fighter-bombers: L-29 trainer planes, Sukhoi Su-22M bombers and Mig-23 interceptors. Their loss deprives the Syrian ruler of the means to wipe out rebel forces from the air. Had they possessed air crews, the rebels could have used their prize to bomb the presidential palace.

US and Israel are aware that the North Korean nuclear test carried out Tuesday, Feb. 12, brings Iran that much closer to conducting a test of its own. Shortly before the test, Ahmadinejad’s boast that Iran will soon place a satellite in orbit at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers - and Tehran’s claim to have sent a monkey into space – highlight the longstanding division of labor and pooling of knowledge between North Korea and Iran: the former focusing on nuclear armament and the latter on long-range missiles to deliver it.

Obama’s preoccupation with Iran and Syria was signaled by his green light for Israel’s air strike in Syria and the announcement of his coming visit to Israel for consultation with Binyamin Netanyahu on those subjects, leaving the peace process with the Palestinians for a later date. This change of face was effected by the combined effort of Clinton, Kerry and Donilon.

The Syrian and Israeli armies have been on a high state of preparedness for two months ready a) for Assad to pay Israel back for its attack and b) for Israel to strike weapons transfers to Hizballah in Lebanon. Israel meanwhile imposes no-fly zones over three Syrian borders.

As Syrian rebels advance on the heart of Damascus, Assad arms the 4th Division with chemical weapons for use if necessary to halt the advance. Al Qaeda has moved shop to Lebanon and is harassing Hizballah with nightly raids.