The Government Of Mexico Has Discontinued The Tropical Storm Warning For The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula.

The Government Of Belize Has Discontinued The Tropical Storm WatchFor The Coast Of Northern Belize.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...* The West Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula From Ciudad Del CarmenNorthward To Celestun

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions ArePossible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Within 24 Hours.

A Hurricane Watch May Be Required For Portions Of The Coast OfMainland Mexico Tonight. Interests In This Area Should Monitor TheProgress Of Karl.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside...Please MonitorProducts Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook------------------------------At 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Karl WasLocated Inland Over The Yucatan Peninsula Near Latitude 19.0North...Longitude 89.4 West. Karl Is Moving Toward TheWest-Northwest Near 15 Mph...24 Km/Hr...And This General Motion IsExpected To Continue With A Gradual Decrease In Forward SpeedDuring The Next Couple Of Days. On The Forecast Track...The CenterOf Karl Will Emerge Into The Bay Of Campeche Tonight Or EarlyThursday...And Then Move Across The Bay Of Campeche And TheSouthwestern Gulf Of Mexico Thursday And Thursday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 45 Mph...75 Km/Hr... With Higher Gusts. Karl Should Continue To Weaken Tonight As The Center Crosses The Yucatan Peninsula. Re-Intensification IsExpected On Thursday After The Center Emerges Into The Bay OfCampeche...And Karl Could Become A Hurricane By Friday.

Karl Is Slowly Weakening As The Center Crosses The YucatanPeninsula. Satellite Imagery And Data From The Belize City RadarIndicate The Cyclone Continues To Produce Strong Convection...ButThis Is Currently Confined To The Southwestern Quadrant. There AreNo Observation Available Near The Core...And Thus The InitialIntensity Of 40 Kt Is Somewhat Uncertain.

The Initial Motion Is Now 285/13. The Cyclone Remains On The SouthSide Of A Low/Mid-Level Ridge Centered Over The Northern GulfCoast...And This Feature Should Steer The Cyclone GenerallyWest-Northwestward Or Westward Across The Southwestern Gulf OfMexico Into Mainland Mexico. There Remains Some Spread In TheGuidance...With The Hwrf Indicating A More Northward Motion On TheRight Side Of The Guidance Envelope And The Gfdn A More WestwardMotion On The Left. Several Of The Other Dynamical Models NowForecast Karl To Slow Its Forward Motion Before Reaching The CoastOf Mainland Mexico...And Also Forecast A Turn To South Of WestMotion Near Or Just After Landfall. The New Forecast TrackReflects Both Of These Possibilities...With The New Track BeingSimilar To...But A Little Slower Than...The Previous Track After36 Hr.

Karl Is Forecast To Weaken To A Tropical Depression By The Time ItReaches The West Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula In About 12 Hr. Once The Center Reaches Water...The Combination Of Warm Sea Surface Temperatures And Light Vertical Wind Shear Should AllowRe-Intensification As Forecast By All Guidance. It Should Be NotedThat The Hwrf...While Forecasting Strengthening...Has ConsistentlyKept Karl At Less Than Hurricane Strength. Given The SeeminglyFavorable Environment...The Intensity Forecast Calls For Karl ToReach Hurricane Strength Over The Gulf Of Mexico In Agreement WithThe Ships And Lgem Models. The Forecast Shows A Peak Intensity Of70 Kt...But Karl Could Become Stronger Than That Between The 48 And72 Hr Forecast Points.

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