Newspoll: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland

The latest Queensland state Newspoll is the Liberal National Party’s weakest result since the floods crisis of early 2011, although it still has them on track for a thumping majority.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the quarterly Newspoll result of state voting intention in Queensland is the weakest for the Liberal National Party since the election of the Newman government in March 2012, or indeed since the short-lived surge to Labor in the wake of the floods crisis of January 2011. That still leaves them with a commanding lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred, which is down from 59-41 for July-September. On the primary vote, the LNP is down four to 40%, Labor is up three to 32% and the Greens are down two to 8%; that leaves 20% for all other parties, with no breakdown provided for the Palmer United Party. Campbell Newman’s personal ratings are changed only slightly, his approval down one to 40% and disapproval up two to 48%, but his lead over Annastacia Palaszczuk as preferred premier has narrowed considerably from 49-26 to 45-32.

In other Queensland news, see the post below for an update on the Redcliffe by-election, including the ReachTEL poll showing Labor on track for victory.

Then the other hand, there is this! A note of caution,more gratuitous advice, from yet another GG journo, taking a lead from those in that stable already anguishing over Abbott’s stunning failure.

‘Life becomes harder for Campbell Newman’s reign

Andrew Fraser
The Australian
December 23, 2013 12:00AM

GIVEN that the Newman government’s election in March last year was the biggest win in Australia’s political history, there was always going to be a substantial swing back to the ALP over the LNP’s first term.

But what should be a matter of concern for Campbell Newman and his party over the Christmas break is that the past few months — which is when this Newspoll was taken — have been dominated by the government’s crackdown on bikies, for which it has always claimed there was popular support.

These poll results show that the government may have overcooked this particular goose. Few people are going to defend violent criminals, but there seems to be a sense that these new laws are unnecessary.

Most of the bikies who have been involved in criminal activities have been arrested under the old laws. The new laws have seen situations like five men arrested in a Sunshine Coast pub for having a beer together, despite them not wearing bikie colours or insignia.

The champion of the bikie laws has been 31-year-old Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie, who has become one of the most public faces of the government. His tough law-and-order stance may sound great rhetorically but the state’s judges don’t seem terribly impressed, and the way he bungled laws supposed to keep notorious child sex offender Robert Fardon in jail made him sound like a sheriff who talked tough but was firing blanks.

Some other frontbenchers such as Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney, Treasurer Tim Nicholls and Transport Minister Scott Emerson are all capable performers but, really, the perceptions of this government all come down to how Newman himself is performing.

In this light, the biggest worry for the LNP is Newman’s seat of Ashgrove. Put simply, the size of the victory disguised the fact that the Premier is in a marginal seat and without a big swing such as the one the LNP enjoyed in March 2012, Newman was always going to have to spend time defending a marginal seat.

He holds Ashgrove with a margin of 5.7 per cent — this Newspoll shows a general swing against the government of 8 per cent.

The obvious way out is to find him another seat, but this is the sort of cynical political manoeuvre that voters hate.

Newman has enough of a majority not to worry about losing the next election, but he would be wise to remember the words of his father’s old boss, Malcolm Fraser: life wasn’t meant to be easy’.

If that does indeed represent an 8% swing (which is a pretty soft figure given the high “others” vote and the vagaries of OPV), then that would cost the LNP about 20 seats, leaving them with about 59, assuming they don’t lose any to Palmer or independents. That would still be a pretty big majority. I would think 8% is the least Labor must expect to do if they want to claim a good result. To cut the LNP back to 50 seats they need a 10% swing, and that seems a reasonable ambition. Then they could start thinking about finding a new permanent leader to win with in 2018.

Still a long way behind, but Labor’s stocks are improving. I agree with Psephos Labor will not win in 2015, but they can get in position for the following term. Redcliffe should be winnable on these numbers.

I think it’s pointless to make predictions about the next state election in Queensland based on a state poll that doesn’t include PUP and the volatility of their preference distribution.

That being said, I reckon the next election will result in a hung parliament with Newman losing Ashgrove (he’ll probably jump seats before the election) and Palmer holding the balance of power on an interesting platform (if he manages to hold his party together)

Queensland election is still a long time away, and if current trends continue the ALP could get quite close. It is prob to the Queensland ALP’s advantage that an unpopular LNP is now in power at the federal level (rather than an unpopular ALP one), as there probably are some knock-on effects. The presence of PUP (and to a lesser extent KAP), along with the lack of compulsory preferential voting could make it a very interesting poll… a good chance we might see a minority government after the next election.

While I agree that Anastacia has little chance of winning in 2015, if a government and its leader become toxic, it doesn’t matter how hard the opposition leader’s name is to pronounce or how much of a non-entity they may be. People will be voting out the government, not voting in the opposition.

Not saying that will be happening in this case – Newman will likely win a comfortable majority, but with Labor picking up a lot of seats – but if Labor loses it won’t be because of the opposition leader’s name.

Plus I think the issue with Palaszczuk’s name isn’t so much that its hard to pronounce but that its hard to spell – closer to the election, she’ll be getting mentioned enough in the news that everyone will know how to pronounce it.

More stupid commentary. Most Qlders know who Anastasia Pallashay is, even if they can’t spell her name. And it doesn’t matter how low her profile is, so long as she’s seen as a safe alternative. The same is true of Andrews in Victoria – you don’t have to be charismatic, just un-threatening. The reason she won’t win in 2015 is not anything to do with her, it’s just that it will take even a nasty piece of work like Newman more than three years to throw away the huge majority he won in 2012. As I said above, a gain of 20 would be a fair result, a gain of 30 a good result. That would still leave the LNP with a comfortable majority. But as I also said, that prediction is conditional on Palmer not making a big breathrough into state politics. If he does so, all predictions are off.

I should note that I don’t think that people’s ability or inability to spell Anastacia’s last name is actually going to effect peoples’ votes. Just pointing out that its a lot easier to pronounce than the how its spelt would suggest.

Andrews is a good comparison. I remember a lot of people complaining about how invisible he was during Baileu’s short reign – now he’s looking increasingly likely to be Victoria’s next premier.

I should note that I don’t think that people’s ability or inability to spell Anastacia’s last name is actually going to effect peoples’ votes. Just pointing out that its a lot easier to pronounce than how its spelt would suggest.

Andrews is a good comparison. I remember a lot of people complaining about how invisible he was during Baileu’s short reign – now he’s looking increasingly likely to be Victoria’s next premier.

I should note that I don’t think that people’s ability or inability to spell Anastacia’s last name is actually going to effect peoples’ votes. Just pointing out that its a lot easier to pronounce than the spelling would suggest.

Andrews is a good comparison. I remember a lot of people complaining about how invisible he was during Baileu’s short reign – now he’s looking increasingly likely to be Victoria’s next premier.

Looks like the Sochi Winter Olympics will not be he only major sporting event staged in a police state this year. Independent MP Peter Wellington highlights a disturbing case, that suggests Campbell Newman is sliding back to the Joh era.

Independent MP Peter Wellington has questioned the independence of the Queensland police service.
Mr Wellington, a former police officer, who has been furiously supporting the group of men known as the 'Yandina five'.
The men were arrested for having a beer together in a Sunshine Coast hinterland pub because of their links to the Rebels bikie club.
Mr Wellington said it was not the “Queensland way” for police to do “the bidding of the government”.

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.