EIA Lowers Price Forecasts for Diesel, Gasoline, Crude Oil

In its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its forecasted prices for gasoline and diesel fuel as well as West Texas Intermediate crude oil.

With crude oil prices falling over the last month, EIA expects that on-highway diesel fuel retail prices, which averaged $3.84 per gallon in 2011, will average $3.79 per gallon in 2012. That's down 11 cents per gallon from last month's Outlook. In 2013, diesel fuel retail prices are projected to fall another 21 cents to an average of $3.58 per gallon.

EIA also lowered the average regular gasoline retail price forecast for the third quarter to $3.39 per gallon. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices, which averaged $3.53 per gallon in 2011, to average $3.49 per gallon in 2012 and $3.28 per gallon in 2013.

EIA projects the West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price to average about $88 per barrel over the second half of 2012 and the U.S. refiner acquisition cost of crude oil to average $93 per barrel, both about $7 per barrel lower than last month's Outlook. EIA expects WTI and RAC crude oil prices to remain roughly at these second half levels in 2013.

Beginning in this month's Outlook, EIA is also providing a forecast of Brent crude oil spot prices, which are expected to average $106 per barrel for 2012 and $98 per barrel in 2013. These price forecasts assume that world oil-consumption-weighted real gross domestic product grows by 2.9% in both 2012 and 2013.