Written by

Dan Feldman

Detroit Free Press Special Writer

Dan Feldman writes for the Detroit Pistons blog PistonPowered. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the Detroit Free Press nor its writers. PistonPowered writers will contribute a column every Friday at freep.com/pistons. Contact Dan anytime at pistonpowered@gmail.comor on Twitter @pistonpowered.

ShotScore is pretty simple if you have access to the spatial data in which Goldsberry specializes. ShotScore measures how a player shoots based on precisely where he shoots.

Let’s say a player shoots 12 feet from the baseline and 4 feet left of the hoop, and let’s also say NBA players made 43% of their shots from that spot throughout the season (.86 points per shot). If the player makes the shot (2 points), his ShotScore increases by 1.14 (2 minus .86). If the player misses the shot (0 points), his shot score falls by .86 (0 minus 0.86).

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In other words, players are measured against the NBA average for the location of each of their shots. Then the scores for each shot are added together to get ShotScore.

A score of zero means a player shot, in sum, exactly the league average based on where he took his shots. A positive ShotScore means a player shot better than the league average, based on where he took his shots. A negative ShotScore means a player shot worse than the league average, based on where he took his shots.

The higher the ShotScore, the better.

Monroe had a ShotScore of minus-134, second-worst in the NBA to Dallas Mavericks guard Monta Ellis.

Of Monroe, Goldsberry wrote: “Speaking of troubles near the basket, the Pistons' Greg Monroe presents another interesting example. Monroe was, by far, the NBA’s most active shooter near the basket last year. That’s good, except that he struggled to convert his shots down there. He has never met a close-range shot he doesn’t like. This is compounded by his immature mid-range game. Although Monroe’s interior numbers weren’t terrible, his slightly below-average production combined with his extreme volume resulted in him arriving at the bottom of the ShotScore list.

“Despite his troubles last season, Monroe remains a very strong NBA prospect. With Monroe, Andre Drummond, and Josh Smith, the Pistons seem well positioned to dominate the interior for years to come. There is little doubt that Monroe will improve both close to the basket and away from it as his game matures, but as it stands, he is notable for his inefficiency.”

Goldsberry specifically noted: “I am not suggesting that this is the most important new statistic in the NBA.”

However, the final word of his Monroe analysis — “inefficiency” — is misleading.

Monroe led the league in shots inside 5 feet last season, but he made just 57.8% of them, less than league average. So he had a negative ShotScore in that zone.

Between 20 and 24 feet, Monroe made 44% of his attempts, better than league average. In that zone, Monroe posted a positive ShotScore.

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Does that mean Monroe should take more shots between 20 and 24 feet and fewer inside 5 feet? No, of course not.

When games begin, it doesn’t matter how the NBA shoots from each shot location. It matters how many points players score per shot.

Though Monroe shoots below the league average inside 5 feet, his percentage from that range would rank No. 1 in the NBA from 5-to-9 feet, 10-to-14 feet, 15-to-19 feet and 20-to-24 feet (at least 40 shots from each zone).

Monroe’s skill is not making shots near the rim. It’s creating shots near the rim, the highest-efficiency area on the court.

That is if you want to call creating close shots a skill. The primary reason Monroe can do that is his elite size (6-feet-10 and 250 pounds). Monroe isn’t an elite athlete, so he must also use deft footwork to create space and his soft hands to catch entry passes. Typically, a player’s skills are judged only after he has the ball in his hands, as ShotScore does.

But NBA basketball, contrary to popular opinion, is not primarily a game of skill. It’s primarily a game of production.

I’ll take a player who can’t dribble and can’t shoot from outside if he can consistently attempt and make dunks and lay-ups. The easiest shots are most profitable. Players aren’t forced by rules to attempt shots from varying locations, and though it’s sometimes necessary due to the defense, an ability to create close shots still trumps an ability to make longer two-point shots.

ShotScore has value, but it does a terrible job of capturing Monroe’s ability.

Is Monroe a skilled shooter? Probably not, or he at least wasn’t last season. But he’s an effective shooter, and that’s more important.