Wednesday, February 11, 2015

India - I am worried for you!

I usually abstain from political writings on this blog; however, I couldn't sleep last night! Reason - the massive victory of AAP in Delhi state assembly elections. This event was not a one-off event but a symptom of a deeper rot in the societal and national mindset. It left me thinking that how Indians can be so blind to elect a party with antecedents of supporting Kashmiri separatists, undermining Indian police and judiciary in Batla House encounter case, promising free stuff in a place where the socialist era memories shall be most vividly remembered, and mocking the constitutional structure with lame vigilantism, not to mention . On the other hand, why a party like BJP is decimated? Here are a few thoughts:

Why BJP lost:

BJP didn't lose in a real sense - their vote share is intact. It is the Congress, which has ably shifted it's almost entire vote share to AAP. But that is little consolation because in our democracy, seats matter, not the shares or margins. Moreover, this has given a formula for other forthcoming elections.

The weight of expectations from Modi government weighed heavy on them. While Modi has performed well, there is no check-list of achievements released. Therefore, even the supporters are confused if there are solid achievements or not.

The anti-BJP media magnified statements from fringe elements. Frankly, many people in Unnav won't know Sakshi Maharaj but his random statements were overblown repeatedly.

They didn't do much of the booth level management or the ground level campaigning or the media management. Their own leaders' bitterness and imposition of Kiran Bedi did more damage.

BJP doesn't understand something very simple - It cannot run a negative campaign in India. People favour the guy who claims victimhood most easily and readily. On the other hand, a personal attack, vitiation, and ungrounded - unproven claim of foreign funding or mockery do not help.

Why AAP won:

The short answer to that is that Indians as a mass are idiot, selfish, and wicked.

The historical answer is to that is they have always traded national and long-term interest for personal and immediate gain.

The complicated answer to that is that right from media houses to international circuits are getting jittery of Modi's policies and internal (5 state elections won) to international show of strength. Sadly, Indians only don't get it.

Barenaked Muslim polarisation - it is time to understand that Muslims have chosen to be a vote-bank and they voted en-masse to anyone who could beat BJP. This has been happening in UP for the past 15 odd years, where Milli Council (a muslim religious body) issues area wise list of strongest candidate against BJP and all the muslims through Friday prayers are told to vote for that candidate irrespective of party as long as it is non-BJP.

The short-term gains and freebies are a hogwash and not sustainable. However, the problem is deeper than that. I've got stories like doctors have contributed huge money and efforts to AAP. The reason: BJP is planning to bring their cash transactions and black money in tax net but AAP has no such plans. The same goes for traders, transporters, hoteliers, lawyers, and so on. Moreover, the government employees are extremely unhappy with BJP - they don't like biometric attendance and on-time discipline imposed by Modi.

What Modi shall do now:

Modi has been trying a lot of soft-power, moral suasion and mindset change to counter the issues like women empowerment, cleanliness, and discipline in public life. What he doesn't get is that when Indians didn't follow Gandhi on all this, why would they be swayed by Modi! What Indians want is to be ruled by an iron fist - yes, the detractors will decry him on this but then, they would always decry him.

Control the media. Yes, it sounds sinister or against freedom of speech but we have to recognize a very fundamental problem with today's media and common public - they are brainwashed through the Indira Gandhi years of re-written textbooks and vitiated leftist mindset. A soft campaign or a logical talk by BJP is not going to change anything. This change requires force. The leftist brainwash is too strong to be changed by mere logical arguments. They have made idiocy a matter of faith. Only a counter-brainwash can change that.

Expose anti-India elements and corrupt elements at the earliest. Foreign funding from Gulf countries since 1970s, evangelists, communists - their rackets are no hidden secrets. Expose them and eliminate them - right from land-grabbing Vadra to 1962 China supporting Communists to Naxal supporter AAP to muslim appeaser third-front and so on.

This leads to the most binding constraint of all. The Indian judicial system is slow and expensive and cumbersome and also, anti-BJP by mindset due to same leftist brainwash. Take some close and good judges in confidence and work to reform the judicial system - the honest and quick judges, quick disposal of cases, scrapping of old and irrelevant laws that are used to delay cases, a thorough re-writing of laws to eliminate the legal loopholes.

Understand this irony BJP - the nation has displayed an immense amount of patience to Congress rule because they never had any hope from them but the same nation will show no mercy or courtesy of time to you - because they have hope from you. You have to deliver quick results - very quick results.

The hope of the nation hinges upon you and it may be our last chance. This nation never rallied behind Dahir or Prithviraj Chauhan or Hemu or Peshwa... it will never stand with you either. You will also be deprived of the glory you may deserve but then, you were never aspiring glory, right? You are, like Batman, striving for a good nation and that is what you shall concentrate upon - with an iron fist!

5 comments:

"It left me thinking that how Indians can be so blind to elect a party with antecedents of supporting Kashmiri separatists" [Afzal Guru & Separatist saga], "undermining Indian police and judiciary in Batla House encounter case" [again Congress MP], "promising free stuff in a place where the socialist era memories shall be most vividly remembered" [Right to XYZ Laws?], and "mocking the constitutional structure with lame vigilantism" [Because violence in Parliament, Switching off Loksabha TV during Telangana, Open Horse trading and Portfolio Reshuffle, Many Cash for Votes, are not violation of Indian Constitution, right? You think this is vigilantism because you think what Congress/BJP did for last 50 years defines what politicians should do. But why? Then Nehru & Congress also thought Dandi March a drama, and hence it takes an outsider to think out of box]

"Modi has performed well" [I am with you, because my expectations are low. As long as BJP avoids minority appeasement and policy of hand-out, it would have done enough to be better than Congress. Anything else is Cherry on the Cake]

"The anti-BJP media magnified statements from fringe elements." [Agree. Missionary Visas and conversions didn't result in sound bites as few "Ghar Wapsi". But then Media is a*hole in India anyway, after it's terrorist abating act during Mumbai attack]

"It cannot run a negative campaign in India" [Generally your reasons of defeat are plausible and also postulated by others. But this point isn't. Good chunk of LS campaign was -ve campaign against Shahzada. But name calling 'bhagoda' when BJP & PDP is engaged in horse-trading and bargaining right now 2 months after election, raising finger on funding when everyone knows their own funding is so opaque is idiocy.]

"The short answer to that is that Indians as a mass are idiot, selfish, and wicked. " [The very same who elected Mr. Modi, right.]

"The historical answer is to that is they have always traded national and long-term interest for personal and immediate gain." [Agree, but that's human nature, bad as it may be]

"Muslims have chosen to be a vote-bank and they voted en-masse to anyone who could beat BJP" [Agree again.]

"doctors have contributed huge money and efforts to AAP" [Good conspiracy theory, but BJP has done nothing to bring money out. And if they do, they will find lots of names within BJP too. How much of BJP bhakt you may be, you cannot believe that all are clean as Modi himself may be]

"government employees are extremely unhappy with BJP - they don't like biometric attendance and on-time discipline imposed by Modi" [PM has jurisdiction separate from CM. Departments will do what their master says. Even if it were BJP CM, that doesn't mean he would be Modi himself. We have BJP CM now in Chhattisgarh & MP, and I don't hear them following biometric route]

"brainwashed through the Indira Gandhi years of re-written textbooks" [which our Ms. Irani has shown no inclination to change]

"Only a counter-brainwash can change that." [Amen]

[In all, your problem is that you are reading this vote against Modi. It's vote for credible alternative to usual way of politics. For India, that was Modi (not RaGa/Congress). For Delhi that is AAP (not Bedi or Harshwardhan).]

Wow! I am wondering if the comments are longer than the post itself. So Thanks for reading, thinking, and writing! Conversing point-by-point:

1. Yes, those observations apply to Congress as well as to AAP. They supported Geelani and Kashmiri referendum without understanding the conditions laid down, Batla house probe was supported by AAP despite a court closure, free stuff promises of AAP are much in news, and vigilantism by AAP - Somnath Bharti to handheld cams to dharna system and so on.

Vigilantism has a standard definition and that is passing on-the-spot judgments without due legal process.

Agree to your points # 2, 3, 7,

4. 2014 BJP campaign wasn't exactly negative. It was a mass-mocking of Rahul. Moreover, BJP promised more positive things and played victimhood (100 smart cities and economic recovery) to (they called me chai-wala and if you throw a stone, I will make it a stepping stone).

5. They were selfish even while voting for Modi. Just that their selfishness was driven by aspiration of economic growth and augured well for the country. The masses were driven by their own short-term benefits only and that is what made them idiot. I call them wicked because they wished for benefits sans responsibility and discipline that comes before the riches.Now they hate Modi because he demands cleanliness, discipline, and vision before benefits become a reality.

6. Historically, India has suffered that but not necessarily all humans. Germans and Japanese and Israelis have not very many examples of traitors but sadly, India has significant traitors at critical junctures of history.

8. No. Leave all BJP supporters, not even all the leaders would be clean. But the hope is that they will brought to justice sooner than later. Interestingly, Modi was a much hated CM within BJP because the MLAs were not allowed a say in contracts and spending.

9. Modi implemented biometric in Gujarat schools and hospitals. MP has already copied the same in both. I am not aware of Raj / CG / Goa etc.

10. Ms. Irani has not changed it may be for lack of will, awareness, or capability. But just imagine the PR bomb it will be if such words are uttered by any BJP leader.

Finally, I am not seeing it as against Modi or central govt. But I am worried at two levels - first, it may set a national strategy against BJP, and second, it will make BJP govt's working more difficult. We can't afford the latter at the least!

I didn't properly introduce myself, and posted a long (and first) comment on your blog. So sorry about that. I came here from FB link. And went about clarifying what you and other BJP supporters are suggesting. It so happened that your blog became platform for that.

Now to the point. While you have largely agreed to my points, you have not given indication if that changes your views about abysmal future for India. Points 8-9-10 don't align with your view why BJP in Delhi would have been better, or what you want BJP in center to do (viz. clean history). Your last para ("finally") contradicts your 5th point. If it's not against Modi then why does Modi demanding cleanliness matter?

Hey, I don't think it was your first comment. I guess during IIMA days, we've had quite a few discussions, may be on D-bab or on your blog.

Well, I am always optimistic about India and its future and potential but at the same time, worried and cautious. The problem is that anti-India forces are getting stronger in rhetoric, in their mass grip, and in their mass support.

And it is not against Modi as the feedback on his work will come later - cleanliness or other measures require time. But at the same time, in the short-run, the wicked, idiot, selfish mass is peeved and strong enough to make his work more difficult.

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Hi, I am Siddhartha. Originally from Lucknow, holding a doctorate in Economics from IIM Ahmedabad and now a professor of Economics at IIM Indore. Wanna do thousands of things... one of which is blogging :)