Poll: McAuliffe has lead among Va likely voters

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - In a gubernatorial race where Virginia voters are putting the trust issue foremost, a new statewide poll says Democrat Terry McAuliffe has a clear lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli.

The poll is based on telephone interviews from Aug. 14-19. McAuliffe's lead is just outside the poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Trustworthiness was the respondents' top concern as 93 percent of respondents ranked it as very important or extremely important to them. Forty-two percent considered Cuccinelli trustworthy while 43 percent said he's not. Thirty-nine percent found McAuliffe trustworthy compared to 36 percent who said he isn't.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were

Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward McAuliffe or Cuccinelli?

(Table includes leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

McAuliffe 48% 6% 92% 42% 45% 50% 42% 74%

Cuccinelli 42 90 1 44 46 38 50 7

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 4

DK/NA 9 4 6 12 8 9 6 15

WHITE........................................

COLLEGE DEG RELIGION..........

Yes No Prot Cath None Men Wom

McAuliffe 46% 38% 32% 42% 65% 36% 48%

Cuccinelli 46 54 59 53 29 57 44

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 2 1

DK/NA 5 7 8 4 4 6 7

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-49 50-64 65+

McAuliffe 50% 45% 52% 43% 50% 50% 45% 47%

Cuccinelli 41 44 37 49 42 42 42 44

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 1

DK/NA 7 9 8 7 7 7 11 8

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO VOTE Q25, 26, 27

Hon- Expr Under-

esty -nce Stndg

McAuliffe 45% 34% 52%

Cuccinelli 44 57 36

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1

DK/NA 9 7 10

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q1), or

is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen q1)?

IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

LIKELY VOTERS..................

CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............

CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1..

Tot McAuliffe Cuccinelli

Def vote for cand 76% 78% 74%

Unlikely to change 12 12 11

Good chance change 10 9 11

DK/NA 3 1 4

1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate chosen), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

LIKELY VOTERS..................

CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............

CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1..

Tot McAuliffe Cuccinelli

Very enthusiastic 25% 23% 27%

Smwht enthusiastic 57 55 58

Not so enthusiastic 13 15 10

Not enthus at all 4 5 3

DK/NA 2 2 1

2. Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Favorable 34% 6% 67% 30% 32% 36% 29% 60%

Unfavorable 33 60 5 37 38 29 39 6

Hvn't hrd enough 31 34 28 31 29 33 30 34

REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 -

3. Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Favorable 35% 73% 6% 35% 39% 32% 40% 11%

Unfavorable 41 6 73 41 38 44 39 54

Hvn't hrd enough 22 20 20 22 23 22 20 34

REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1

5. Is your opinion of E.W. Jackson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Favorable 8% 13% 2% 9% 11% 6% 10% 3%

Unfavorable 16 6 27 15 20 12 15 19

Hvn't hrd enough 75 81 69 75 68 81 74 77

REFUSED 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 1

6. Is your opinion of Ralph Northam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Favorable 8% 4% 15% 5% 8% 8% 8% 9%

Unfavorable 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4

Hvn't hrd enough 87 91 81 91 88 87 88 85

REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 - 1

7. Is your opinion of Mark Herring favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Favorable 8% 2% 15% 7% 9% 8% 8% 7%

Unfavorable 3 4 1 3 4 2 3 5

Hvn't hrd enough 88 92 83 88 87 88 88 87

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 1

8. Is your opinion of Mark Obenshain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Favorable 12% 15% 5% 14% 13% 10% 13% 4%

Unfavorable 6 5 10 5 8 5 7 3

Hvn't hrd enough 82 80 84 81 79 84 80 92

REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 1 -

23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Approve 42% 81% 12% 42% 46% 39% 49% 19%

Disapprove 46 11 76 48 45 48 42 66

DK/NA 11 8 12 11 10 13 9 15

25. (INTRO Q25-27: Thinking about this year's election for governor, for each personal quality I name, please tell me how important it is in your decision of who to support in the election for governor.)

How about the candidate's - experience, would you say this is extremely important in your choice for governor, very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Extremely important 19% 28% 16% 17% 20% 18% 20% 19%

Very important 42 48 43 40 36 48 43 41

Somewhat important 32 22 34 36 36 29 32 34

Not so important 4 2 4 5 4 4 4 3

Not important at all 2 - 2 2 2 1 1 2

DK/NA - - 1 - - - - 1

26. How about the candidate's - understanding of the problems of people like you, would you say this is extremely important in your choice for governor, very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Extremely important 44% 37% 50% 43% 41% 46% 40% 62%

Very important 38 44 33 37 37 38 39 31

Somewhat important 16 15 15 15 18 13 19 6

Not so important 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 -

Not important at all 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 -

DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1

27. How about the candidate's - honesty and trustworthiness, would you say this is extremely important in your choice for governor, very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Extremely important 58% 60% 52% 63% 58% 58% 60% 51%

Very important 35 33 43 29 34 36 34 43

Somewhat important 6 7 4 8 7 6 6 6

Not so important - - - 1 - - - 1

Not important at all 1 - - - 1 - 1 -

DK/NA - - - - - - - -

28. (INTRO Q28-33: Now, I'd like to ask whether you think each of these qualities describes each candidate in the election for governor.)

Do you think Ken Cuccinelli - has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Yes 56% 83% 33% 59% 63% 51% 63% 33%

No 31 5 54 29 27 35 26 50

DK/NA 13 12 13 12 11 14 11 17

29. Would you say that Ken Cuccinelli - understands the problems of people like you or not?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Yes 37% 73% 11% 35% 41% 34% 43% 14%

No 51 17 79 54 47 55 47 76

DK/NA 11 9 10 11 11 11 10 11

30. Would you say that Ken Cuccinelli - is honest and trustworthy or not?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Yes 42% 77% 15% 41% 47% 37% 48% 19%

No 43 10 69 44 39 47 38 65

DK/NA 15 12 16 15 14 16 14 16

31. Do you think Terry McAuliffe - has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Yes 46% 29% 71% 40% 45% 47% 44% 58%

No 34 49 12 40 36 31 36 21

DK/NA 21 23 16 19 19 22 20 22

32. Would you say that Terry McAuliffe - understands the problems of people like you or not?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Yes 38% 18% 65% 32% 37% 39% 35% 57%

No 42 59 19 51 44 39 46 25

DK/NA 20 23 16 17 19 22 20 18

33. Would you say that Terry McAuliffe - is honest and trustworthy or not?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Yes 39% 21% 65% 33% 36% 42% 36% 56%

No 36 52 13 43 40 33 40 21

DK/NA 25 27 22 24 23 26 24 23

35. What do you think Ken Cuccinelli is spending more time doing in his campaign, explaining what he would do if elected Governor or attacking Terry McAuliffe?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Explaining 32% 47% 20% 32% 35% 28% 34% 23%

Attacking 52 36 62 56 50 55 51 56

DK/NA 16 17 18 12 15 17 15 22

36. What do you think Terry McAuliffe is spending more time doing in his campaign, explaining what he would do if elected Governor or attacking Ken Cuccinelli?