The various scenarios for war in the East China
Sea, and possibly in the South China Sea, usually fall into two main
categories. There is the “accidental” fight scenario. A Chinese
destroyer’s radar locks onto a Japanese warship. The Japanese captain
fires back in self-defense and the incident spirals out of control.

That is one scenario. Another, possibly more
realistic, is the “swarm” scenario: Several hundred “fishing boats” sail
from ports in Zhejiang province for the Senkaku, where they overwhelm
the Japanese Coast Guard by their sheer numbers.

This time, the fishing boats land some 200 or so
commandoes disguised as fishermen or “settlers.” The Senkakus are not
garrisoned by Japanese troops, so no shots are fired. The Chinese side
says it is not using force, merely taking possession of what it claims
to be its sovereign territory.

Tokyo feels obliged to respond, although the
Chinese landing force is too large to dislodge by ordinary policing
methods, such as those that have been used in the past when a handful of
activists – Chinese and Japanese – tried to land on the disputed
islands and plant their flags.

That would put Japan in the position of being the
first party to fire shots, possibly landing elements of the Western
Infantry Regiment, which was created and trained specifically to
recapture islands. Meanwhile, Tokyo hurriedly consults with Washington
seeking assurance that it will honor its commitments to defend Japan.

On more than one occasion, including in remarks
from President Barack Obama himself, the United States has stated that
the Senkaku come under the provisions of the joint security treaty as
they are administered by Japan.

In the most recent incident, the estimated 230
Chinese fishing vessels escorted by Chinese law enforcement vessels made
no effort to land anyone, though the Japanese Coast Guard shadowing the
vessels kept a sharp eye out for any sign of it.

China boasts the world’s largest fishing fleet, but
it is a matter of debate among security analysts as to extent to which
China’s fishing fleet constitutes a paramilitary force, or as they
sometimes say, a “maritime militia.” Somehow, a swarm of Chinese Fishing
boats always seem to materialize on cue in disputes in the East and
South China Sea.

The use of fishing boats, not to mention the
nominally civilian coast guard, tends to blur the distinctions between
what is civilian and what is military. In any conflict, the Japan and
the U.S. would have to deal with ostensibly civilian boats that could
flood the battlefield turning it into a confusing melee.

“China’s fishing fleet is being encouraged to fish
in disputed waters . . . and are being encouraged to do so for
geopolitical as well as commercial reasons,” says Alan Duport, a
security analyst at the University of New South Wales.

Swarm tactics have been used often in the South
China Sea. Hundreds of boats converged in the Gulf of Tonkin in 2014 in
the dispute over the oil-drilling rig that the Chinese erected in
Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

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