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Adam Levitan

Mock Draft

Expert Draft Recap

On Monday afternoon, I had the honor of participating in the official 14-man Yahoo Friends and Family Draft. It’s a long-standing league featuring tons of sharp industry people. Although there’s no money involved, it will be played out competitively.

The roster format and scoring system is a little quirky. We start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, K, D. There are only four bench spots. The different scoring features are 0.75 points for a reception, 4.5 points for a passing touchdown, one point for a TD pass of 40+ yards and two points for a rush/reception of 40+ yards. Let's get to it.

Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner Fanduel is hosting a $100,000 Fantasy Football Contest in Week 1. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Here’s the link.

NOTES: No matter what format you play in, eight of the first nine picks are likely going to be running backs. And in any kind of PPR, we’ll see a lot of the above – 12 of 14 RBs in the first round. Compared to recent years, there are fewer questions surrounding the top third of the league’s backs. We’re also splitting hairs at who to take at No. 2. It’s a strange first round. … Note that this draft was going on as information regarding Jamaal Charles’ injury was breaking. … Anyone who read the “vomit” quote from Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett knows that considering C.J. Spiller as early as No. 2 isn’t crazy. … It’s really, really hard to separate A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall. If you’re at the back of the first round and only want one of them, you don’t have to be the one to start the run.

MY PICK: Let’s start off with a whine. In a league that awards 0.75 points or more for a reception, the top-10 is where you want to be. The top-9 running backs all excel as receivers and Calvin Johnson is in a tier by himself. I love the four-man, second tier of wideouts, but there’s not much separation between them. I also thought it was imperative to come away with one running back out of my first two picks given the 14-team format. So, with the 11th pick, the choice for me was Alfred Morris or Marshawn Lynch. We’re splitting hairs between them, but I went with Alf thanks to the Shanahan scheme.

NOTES: In the Round 1 notes, I said there’s no need to start the Tier 2 WR run unless you want two of them. Well, Gehlken wanted two of them and he’s started off with two no-doubt dominators. Those thinking about employing this WR-WR strategy should pay close attention to what running backs he ends up choosing from later on. … Don’t get confused and think you’re smart because you’ve pegged Larry Fitzgerald as a bounce-back sleeper. So have a ton of other people and he’s going to go in the second round of a lot of leagues. … Maurice Jones-Drew has looked very healthy through camp. His ADP is rising accordingly. … Reggie Bush is a PPR specialist in the game’s most pass-heavy scheme. I suspect he would have gone a round or two later in non-PPR scoring. … Note the buzzworthy rise of second-year RB Lamar Miller. No one is buying the Dolphins’ claims that they’re holding an open competition for carries. Miller is locked and loaded.

MY PICK: Evan Silva has talked a lot about why Jimmy Graham is so valuable this year. It’s about position scarcity, value-based drafting and Graham’s truly unique ability. I would have taken Graham over Frank Gore and Stevan Ridley. I would have taken Dez Bryant over Graham. Regardless, I’m fine with owning no wideouts through two rounds. It’s deeper than the running back/tight end and the only one I can get help on via the waiver-wire once the season starts. The other spots are more depleted in a 14-team league.

NOTES: Through three rounds, here’s the position breakdown of the picks: 27 running backs, 14 wide receivers, one tight end, zero quarterbacks. … The pick that raised eyebrows here was Giovani Bernard, made by Andy Behrens. We know that Bernard is far more talented than BenJarvus Green-Ellis, we just don’t know when the coaches will move on from a guy that’s reliable. If it happens early on, Bernard will be well worth the pick. Either way, his stock is rising fast. … Darren Sproles is another strict PPR specialist that I was surprised didn’t go even earlier. … With those 27 RBs going in the first three rounds, there was a ton of value with wideouts here. I could easily make a case for each of Roddy White, Randall Cobb, Vincent Jackson, Danny Amendola and Andre Johnson as top-10 options at the position. … So Mr. Gehlken, who started off WR-WR, ends up with Shane Vereen as his No. 1 RB. It’s a very sneaky play to get a more talented Danny Woodhead that will also line up as a joker all over the formation.

MY PICK: I play fantasy football to get first place in my league – not to try to sneak into the playoffs and get lucky. I want to just overwhelm my opponents with guys that can go off at any time. So even though Danny Amendola comes with plenty of risk as an injury-prone player in his first year with the Patriots, I truly believe he has a realistic shot at 100 catches and top-eight status if he stays healthy. I’m more than willing to roll the dice for that kind of upside.

NOTES: The quarterback bubble finally breaks. I know it seems crazy that Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees don’t go until the fourth round, but think about position scarcity in this format. I could see 14 of them throwing for 4,000+ yards this year and we can only start one. Quarterbacks get hurt the least out of any position – we need more quality depth at other spots. QBs are devalued further in PPR because they don’t catch passes. It just doesn’t make sense to burn an early pick on one, even though Rodgers, Brees etc. are sure things. … We continue on with examining what happens if you start WR-WR from the back of the first round. Gehlken added potential TD monster Eddie Lacy to Shane Vereen, and also could have had Montee Ball or Ahmad Bradshaw. I think he’s proven it’s a strategy that can at least be considered. … Rob Gronkowski is an interesting case right now. If he returns at 100 percent around Week 8, he’ll still give owners plenty of value at this point in drafts. If he avoids active/PUP, owners have a monster steal. I like the risk/reward value here. … Given the positive training camp reports around the health both Robert Griffin III and Pierre Garcon, I was surprised Garcon was the 20th wideout off the board. He’s the X in Shanahan and Son!

MY PICK: I started RB-TE-WR and felt like I really needed to get another running back here. After Lacy and Ball, there’s a sizable dropoff to the Ahmad Bradshaws and Daryl Richardsons of the world. So even though I do think Ball will be in a committee with Ronnie Hillman, I think the committee will tilt to the rookie. He’s more suited to be a between-the-tackles, bellcow kind of runner. Hillman is clearly more suited to an outside, change-of-pace role.

NOTES:Daryl Richardson is gaining steam as the starter and is therefore the first Rams RB off the board. Isaiah Pead won’t go until Round 9 and Zac Stacy lasted until Round 12. … Clear-cut starting running backs almost always go in the first 2-3 rounds of a fantasy draft. The fact that Rashard Mendenhall was available in Round 5 speaks to the lack of faith in both his ability and the Cardinals’ offensive line. ... Jonathan Stewart's pain is DeAngelo Williams' gain. He's a riser through camp and goes five rounds before the Daily Show.

MY PICK: I already had my tight end and I knew I wasn’t going to take a quarterback until late. That meant I could simply take the best wideout or running back available. Perhaps I’m playing a little too scared, but Jordy Nelson is already on the shelf for the entire preseason. It’s not the same as the Danny Amendola situation, because Amendola is 100 percent healthy. Although I think James Jones' touchdowns will regress sharply this year, he’ll see more targets with Greg Jennings gone and Nelson possibly hobbled. Guys playing every down with Aaron Rodgers don’t fall on their faces.

On Monday afternoon, I had the honor of participating in the official 14-man Yahoo Friends and Family Draft. It’s a long-standing league featuring tons of sharp industry people. Although there’s no money involved, it will be played out competitively.

The roster format and scoring system is a little quirky. We start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, K, D. There are only four bench spots. The different scoring features are 0.75 points for a reception, 4.5 points for a passing touchdown, one point for a TD pass of 40+ yards and two points for a rush/reception of 40+ yards. Let's get to it.

Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner Fanduel is hosting a $100,000 Fantasy Football Contest in Week 1. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Here’s the link.

NOTES: No matter what format you play in, eight of the first nine picks are likely going to be running backs. And in any kind of PPR, we’ll see a lot of the above – 12 of 14 RBs in the first round. Compared to recent years, there are fewer questions surrounding the top third of the league’s backs. We’re also splitting hairs at who to take at No. 2. It’s a strange first round. … Note that this draft was going on as information regarding Jamaal Charles’ injury was breaking. … Anyone who read the “vomit” quote from Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett knows that considering C.J. Spiller as early as No. 2 isn’t crazy. … It’s really, really hard to separate A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall. If you’re at the back of the first round and only want one of them, you don’t have to be the one to start the run.

MY PICK: Let’s start off with a whine. In a league that awards 0.75 points or more for a reception, the top-10 is where you want to be. The top-9 running backs all excel as receivers and Calvin Johnson is in a tier by himself. I love the four-man, second tier of wideouts, but there’s not much separation between them. I also thought it was imperative to come away with one running back out of my first two picks given the 14-team format. So, with the 11th pick, the choice for me was Alfred Morris or Marshawn Lynch. We’re splitting hairs between them, but I went with Alf thanks to the Shanahan scheme.

NOTES: In the Round 1 notes, I said there’s no need to start the Tier 2 WR run unless you want two of them. Well, Gehlken wanted two of them and he’s started off with two no-doubt dominators. Those thinking about employing this WR-WR strategy should pay close attention to what running backs he ends up choosing from later on. … Don’t get confused and think you’re smart because you’ve pegged Larry Fitzgerald as a bounce-back sleeper. So have a ton of other people and he’s going to go in the second round of a lot of leagues. … Maurice Jones-Drew has looked very healthy through camp. His ADP is rising accordingly. … Reggie Bush is a PPR specialist in the game’s most pass-heavy scheme. I suspect he would have gone a round or two later in non-PPR scoring. … Note the buzzworthy rise of second-year RB Lamar Miller. No one is buying the Dolphins’ claims that they’re holding an open competition for carries. Miller is locked and loaded.

MY PICK: Evan Silva has talked a lot about why Jimmy Graham is so valuable this year. It’s about position scarcity, value-based drafting and Graham’s truly unique ability. I would have taken Graham over Frank Gore and Stevan Ridley. I would have taken Dez Bryant over Graham. Regardless, I’m fine with owning no wideouts through two rounds. It’s deeper than the running back/tight end and the only one I can get help on via the waiver-wire once the season starts. The other spots are more depleted in a 14-team league.

NOTES: Through three rounds, here’s the position breakdown of the picks: 27 running backs, 14 wide receivers, one tight end, zero quarterbacks. … The pick that raised eyebrows here was Giovani Bernard, made by Andy Behrens. We know that Bernard is far more talented than BenJarvus Green-Ellis, we just don’t know when the coaches will move on from a guy that’s reliable. If it happens early on, Bernard will be well worth the pick. Either way, his stock is rising fast. … Darren Sproles is another strict PPR specialist that I was surprised didn’t go even earlier. … With those 27 RBs going in the first three rounds, there was a ton of value with wideouts here. I could easily make a case for each of Roddy White, Randall Cobb, Vincent Jackson, Danny Amendola and Andre Johnson as top-10 options at the position. … So Mr. Gehlken, who started off WR-WR, ends up with Shane Vereen as his No. 1 RB. It’s a very sneaky play to get a more talented Danny Woodhead that will also line up as a joker all over the formation.

MY PICK: I play fantasy football to get first place in my league – not to try to sneak into the playoffs and get lucky. I want to just overwhelm my opponents with guys that can go off at any time. So even though Danny Amendola comes with plenty of risk as an injury-prone player in his first year with the Patriots, I truly believe he has a realistic shot at 100 catches and top-eight status if he stays healthy. I’m more than willing to roll the dice for that kind of upside.

NOTES: The quarterback bubble finally breaks. I know it seems crazy that Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees don’t go until the fourth round, but think about position scarcity in this format. I could see 14 of them throwing for 4,000+ yards this year and we can only start one. Quarterbacks get hurt the least out of any position – we need more quality depth at other spots. QBs are devalued further in PPR because they don’t catch passes. It just doesn’t make sense to burn an early pick on one, even though Rodgers, Brees etc. are sure things. … We continue on with examining what happens if you start WR-WR from the back of the first round. Gehlken added potential TD monster Eddie Lacy to Shane Vereen, and also could have had Montee Ball or Ahmad Bradshaw. I think he’s proven it’s a strategy that can at least be considered. … Rob Gronkowski is an interesting case right now. If he returns at 100 percent around Week 8, he’ll still give owners plenty of value at this point in drafts. If he avoids active/PUP, owners have a monster steal. I like the risk/reward value here. … Given the positive training camp reports around the health both Robert Griffin III and Pierre Garcon, I was surprised Garcon was the 20th wideout off the board. He’s the X in Shanahan and Son!

MY PICK: I started RB-TE-WR and felt like I really needed to get another running back here. After Lacy and Ball, there’s a sizable dropoff to the Ahmad Bradshaws and Daryl Richardsons of the world. So even though I do think Ball will be in a committee with Ronnie Hillman, I think the committee will tilt to the rookie. He’s more suited to be a between-the-tackles, bellcow kind of runner. Hillman is clearly more suited to an outside, change-of-pace role.

NOTES:Daryl Richardson is gaining steam as the starter and is therefore the first Rams RB off the board. Isaiah Pead won’t go until Round 9 and Zac Stacy lasted until Round 12. … Clear-cut starting running backs almost always go in the first 2-3 rounds of a fantasy draft. The fact that Rashard Mendenhall was available in Round 5 speaks to the lack of faith in both his ability and the Cardinals’ offensive line. ... Jonathan Stewart's pain is DeAngelo Williams' gain. He's a riser through camp and goes five rounds before the Daily Show.

NOTES: I wonder where Josh Gordon would have gone if he didn’t get that two-game suspension. The dude is really talented and such a great fit for that scheme. In the scope of a whole fantasy season, two games during non-bye weeks is not that crippling. … Mark Ingram is reportedly having a monster camp. If he played in a different scheme, I’d be buying a third-year breakout. … Vincent Brown was a quality sleeper a few weeks back. Not anymore. Now he’s on everyone’s radar thanks to the knee injuries sustained by Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd. Brown is the Chargers’ No. 1 wideout. … There are a few more excellent sleepers that aren’t really sleepers here: Michael Floyd, Cecil Shorts, T.Y. Hilton, Gordon. Shorts was a true every-down player for seven games last year and averaged 5.2 catches for 82.1 yards with three TDs during that span. Yes, his QBs were Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne, just like they will be last year. … I mentioned Hilton in my Camp Battles preview. Nothing has changed, I still think he beats out Darrius Heyward-Bey for the job opposite Reggie Wayne in two-wide sets. … As you can see, no one is buying the rumblings that Chris Polk could beat out Bryce Brown for the backup job.

MY PICK: When you really love a trendy/buzz guy, it’s never too early. Especially when your opponents are very savvy and aware of that trendy/buzz guy. So even though I knew it was a little too early for Michael Floyd, I also knew that if I passed on him there was a zero percent chance I’d ever get him. For reasons we’ve discussed over and over again, I think Floyd will be the best breakout player at wideout this year.

NOTES: Let’s talk quarterbacks. Before this round started, six teams had selected a QB. That leaves eight to go, assuming no one takes a backup. The problem is that there’s a little bit of a cliff after the Andrew Luck/Matt Ryan/Matthew Stafford/Tony Romo/Russell Wilson/Robert Griffin III tier. So when this run starts, everyone jumps in because they see they’ll be left with bubkis if they wait any longer. Still, look at the quality of quarterback had here and the separation between them. In some more standard drafts, you’ll see Matt Ryan go in Round 3 and Tony Romo in Round 10. That’s where the real value is in the “wait on a QB” strategy. … Ronnie Hillman goes three full rounds after Montee Ball. You can see who most people think will win that battle. … Golden Tate stands out here as an ascending, talented player in a contract year. He lasted longer than I thought he would.

MY PICK: I’ll be honest here. The Michael Vick pick was a misclick of sorts. I had done some pre-rankings ahead of this draft, and when it was my turn here I was only looking under the “My Ranks” tab. Therefore, I did not see Robert Griffin III. If I knew RG3 was available, I would have taken him. That said, I’m totally fine with Vick as my starter. He’s going to beat out Nick Foles and he’s going to use his legs in Chip Kelly’s offense. Over the last six years, Oregon’s quarterbacks have averaged 7.5 rushing touchdowns per season.

NOTES: Check out Evan Silva’s take on Chris Givens here as well as his recent blurbs here. He’s certainly a riser. … I’d consider Ben Tate one of the most valuable handcuffs in the game. Arian Foster’s owner disagreed, taking Bryce Brown in Round 6 rather than Tate. … Ryan Broyles’ recovery from another ACL tear has been remarkable. He’s a guy you can steal in the last couple rounds of non-expert leagues. ... The first Raiders wideout off the board is Denarius Moore. Rod Streater has been outplaying him during camp and went in Round 11. … If Hakeem Nicks was sidelined with any kind of injury during this draft, Rueben Randle would have gone at least 2-3 rounds earlier. … Owners have clearly taken notice of Fred Davis’ health. I’ll talk more about the tight end run we’re seeing in Round 9 notes.

MY PICK: OK, here’s another mistake. I got kicked offline right before this round and came back to find Jacquizz Rodgers as an auto-pick. I would have taken Ryan Broyles if I was online. Still, I’m fine with Rodgers because running back depth is so hard to come by in a 14-team league. If you sustain injuries at the position, it can become difficult to find someone just to fill the spot. Rodgers is going to be mixed in some behind a 30-year-old Steven Jackson. Before this round, I had just two RBs (Morris and Ball).

NOTES: The top of the tight end crop is really thin. But if you don’t pull the trigger on Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski or Vernon Davis, there are plenty of options with upside late. Let’s put it this way: If I knew some of these guys were going to be available in Round 9, I might not have taken Graham in Round 2. Anyway, it wouldn’t surprise me if any of the following finished as a top-5 tight end this year: Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph, Coby Fleener and Jermichael Finley. All four went in Round 8 or 9. … It’s really rare for an undrafted rookie to make an impact. It’s even rarer for an undrafted wide receiver to step right into one of the league’s most demanding offenses. But that’s exactly what Kenbrell Thompkins has done and he can’t be ignored. If the season started today, it looks like he’d be the Patriots’ starting “X” receiver. Aaron Dobson ended up going nine picks later. … This draft happened just hours before the Malcom Floyd injury news broke. … DeAndre Hopkins and Emmanuel Sanders stand out as No. 2 receivers, but talented guys with reasonably quarterback play. Plenty of value at this point.

NOTES: Brandon Funston started his draft with Marshawn Lynch at 12th overall. He did well to get Christine Michael here. Michael is a serious player that will be push for RB1 status if Lynch misses any time. … The fall of Jonathan Stewart has been epic. That’s what happens when you’re a running back and you have two bad feet. It’s hard to see Stewart wrestling the majority of a timeshare away from DeAngelo Williams at this point. … Justin Blackmon probably would have gone higher if we had more bench spots. He’s suspended for the first four weeks.

NOTES: Jeff Ratcliffe was the only one to truly employ the wait (and wait, and wait) on a quarterback strategy. He ended up with Joe Flacco here and Alex Smith in Round 12. It’s not ideal, but he had plenty of other options (as I mentioned Round 9) and he is stacked with depth at all other positions. … Vick Ballard was the Colts’ workhorse last year. This year, he goes six rounds after Ahmad Bradshaw. … I’ll be coming out with a “Favorite Fliers” column shortly, highlighting players with ADPs of 115.0 or greater. If I was doing one for guys with 140+ ADPs, Cordarrelle Patterson would certainly be on there. He’s an athletic freak that’s going to be factor late in the season.

MY PICK: I think handcuffing your first-round running back is important, as long as the backup is capable. I believe Roy Helu is more than capable, especially in a PPR format. Before toe and Achilles’ tendon issues crippled him, Helu was a really intriguing prospect. He averaged 4.2 YPC on 151 carries and caught 49 balls in 2011.

MY PICK: At this point in drafts, most players we select are going to need an injury or two to get a real chance. I think Zach Sudfeld is one that might just win a starting job outright. Another Patriots undrafted rookie, this one is being called “Baby Gronk” by some beat writers. I never worried about having three tight ends at all – I’m just trying to stockpile talent at this point.

NOTES:Percy Harvin (hip) is targeting sometime around Week 13 for his return. Adjust draft boards accordingly if you have an IR spot or a ton of bench space. … The Packers are trying to pump up DuJuan Harris as a legit option to start over Eddie Lacy. He lasted until the 13th round here for a reason. No one buys Harris as a threat.

MY PICK: If your league uses default Yahoo scoring for defenses, you need to give the position some thought. They give a full point for a sack, two points for a turnover and seven points for allowing 1-7 points. Knowing this, I chose to actually choose a D/ST I like in most matchups instead of just waiting until Week 1 and picking one up. With Brian Cushing (ACL) reportedly healthy and J.J. Watt in his prime, I’ll use the Texans often.

MY PICK: Instead of letting a kicker take up space on my roster for the next three weeks, I took a deep flier on Austin Collie. Perhaps he finally gets healthy and wins a wide-open competition for the No. 2 WR job.

Adam Levitan is in his seventh season covering football and basketball for Rotoworld. He won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association award for Best Series in 2011 and 2009, and ESPN's overall fantasy football title in 2000. Find him on Twitter.Email :Adam Levitan