Friday, March 23, 2012

How our healthcare spending is like that drunk joke

You know that joke about the drunk crawling around under a street light? A cop comes up to him and asks what he is doing. The drunk explains that he is looking for his wallet. The cop, getting ready to help the man, asks where exactly he dropped it. The drunk points to a distant corner of the dark side of the street. The cop, baffled, inquires why the man is looking here. With inimitable logic the drunk responds, "This is where the light is."

What does this story have to do with anything? Well, I went to a great HIT tweet-up in Cambridge yesterday, organized by Scratch Marketing and led by Janice McCallum. No, they did not at all remind me of the drunk in the joke. But the lively discussion about data by about two dozen attendees inspired by Janice's thoughtful presentation certainly made me realize that our healthcare policy is like that drunk. Here is what I mean.

Our healthcare expenditures are completely devoid of any attempt at probabilistic thinking. I thought about the old Rand Corporation data, which I have presented here before. Juxtaposing them with the data on our National Healthcare Expenditures really drives home my message that we need to get a whole lot better at applying probabilities to our decisions. And this specifically applies to policy.

Just look at the glaring imbalance: while fully 60% of all premature deaths are due to behavioral, social and environmental factors which reside in the realm of public health, 97% of all NHE is spent on the medical side. If I add the 2% of the total NHE spent on research into the public health piece of the pie (this is exceedingly generous, as public health research gets a bafflingly tiny portion of the total US research budget), we still have 95% spent on personal health and its administration and only 5% on public health.

So, if the probability of premature death due to a public health-related condition is 60%, why are we only spending 3% of all the healthcare dollars on fixing it? Another way of posing this question is, if the probability of premature death from issues related to access to adequate medical care is 10%, why are we spending 97% of all the NHE on that piece of the pie?

If this isn't just like that joke, I don't know what is. Only in this case it is much less funny than in the case of the drunk.

If you like Healthcare, etc., please consider a donation (button in the right margin) to support development of this content. But just to be clear, it is not tax-deductible, as we do not have a non-profit status.

Welcome and a disclaimer

Welcome to my blog, "Healthcare, etc."! In this blog I take the perspective of a researcher/policy wonk rather than an individual healthcare practitioner. Therefore, all opinions that I express and generalizations that I make about any issues will in no way be construed as medical advice for individual visitors / readers. All views expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent opinions of any organizations with which I am affiliated. I welcome all comments, but reserve the right not to publish paranoid or abusive rants or overt marketing pitches.

About Me

I am an independent physician health services researcher with a specific interest in healthcare-associated complications and a broad interest in the state of our healthcare system. I am also a professor of Epidemiology at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
I am frequently invited to speak about evidence-based medicine, methods and healthcare-associated complications.
My posts have been syndicated on The Health Care Blog, KevinMD,The Healthcare Collective and other sites. They have also been cited in the New York Times. Occasionally you can also find me blogging on the British Medical Journal blog site http://www.doc2doc.bmj.com
If you would like to contact me about my research, blog posts or speaking, please e-mail me at Healthcareetcblog@gmail.com