Obama leads 50 percent to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. His 50 percent job approval rating puts him at a crucial threshold for an incumbent seeking reelection. It’s an uptick from the spring and summer, but 48 percent still disapprove.

Romney, meanwhile, finds himself sliding in the wake of two events — the choice of his running mate and the Republican national convention — that were supposed to buoy his candidacy. His unfavorable rating ticked up from 46 percent to 49 percent over the past seven weeks, as the share viewing him favorably held steady at 46 percent. Personal likability boosts the president, who is viewed favorably by 53 percent.

“The window is narrowing for Romney, and he’s in deep, deep trouble,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who helped conduct the bipartisan poll, said Sunday. “Ultimately, people don’t like this guy. If they don’t like someone, it’s hard to get people to vote for him — particularly to fire someone they do like.”

The universe of voters who might change their mind also has shrunk significantly. One in five supporting a candidate said they’d consider someone else last month. Now it’s closer to one in 10. Regardless of who they’re supporting, 60 percent now expect Obama to win. Democrats say this will fuel late Obama momentum. Republicans think pro-Obama turnout could drop off if people expect him to win.

The poll’s Republican pollster, Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group, notes that Romney is winning independents by 2 points.

“Our original premise that this was going to be a very close race is just reinforced with most of this data,” he said. “This race is far from over.”

Obama now ties or has an edge over Romney on who is best to handle every major issue except the federal budget and spending.

Romney has lost his edge on jobs. A month ago, he led Obama by 6 points on the question of who is best equipped to put Americans back to work. Now they’re even. Among those who say creating jobs is their top priority, Obama’s up 11 points.

A slight majority disapproves of the way Obama’s handling the economy, yet he narrowly leads Romney on who is better to manage it.

Approval for Obama’s tax policy has risen from 46 to 51 percent in the last month, and Obama has a 4-point edge on who will better handle the issue after the two tied in the previous poll.

“For the first time in decades, Democrats have persistently had an advantage on taxes,” said Lake.

The Democrat has also expanded his advantage on Medicare. He leads Romney by 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent, on who can better handle the entitlement program. The president had a 4-point edge in the week before Romney announced Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as his running mate.