Projections of Florida Population by County, , with Estimates for 2012

Transcription

1 College of Liberal Arts and Sciences Bureau of Economic and Business Research Florida Population Studies Volume 46, Bulletin 165, March 2013 Projections of Florida Population by County, , with Estimates for 2012 Stanley K. Smith, Population Program Director Stefan Rayer, Research Demographer Florida has been a rapidly growing state for many years. The 2010 Census showed that the permanent resident population grew by more than 2.8 million between 2000 and 2010, an increase of 17.6%. Although this increase was not quite as large as those occurring in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, the numeric increase was still the third largest among the 50 states and the percent increase was the eighth largest. Sixtyfive counties gained population during the decade, with four growing by more than 50% and another twenty growing by at least 20%. Only two counties lost population between 2000 and Growth rates varied considerably during the decade, not only from county to county but also from year to year. Fueled by an expanding economy and a booming housing market, population increases from were among the largest in Florida s history. As economic growth stalled and the housing market collapsed later in the decade, population growth declined as well, dropping to its lowest levels in more than 60 years. Population growth picked up again over the last two years, but not nearly to the levels seen ten years ago. We expect growth to continue to accelerate over the next few years, eventually reaching levels more in line with historical patterns. For many counties, however, future increases are likely to be smaller than those occurring during the last several decades. We project Florida s population growth to average approximately 234,000 per year this decade, 243,000 per year from 2020 to 2030, and 198,000 per year from 2030 to The dramatic shifts in state and county population growth rates over the past few years illustrate the uncertain nature of population projections. To account for this uncertainty, we publish three series of projections. We believe the medium series is the most likely to provide accurate forecasts in most circumstances, but the low and high series provide an indication of uncertainty surrounding the medium series. These alternative scenarios along with information from other data sources should be considered when using projections for planning purposes. It should be noted that these projections refer solely to permanent residents of Florida; they do not include tourists or seasonal residents. State projections The starting point for the state-level projections was the 2010 Census count by age and sex as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Projections were made using a cohort-component methodology in which births, deaths, and migration were projected separately for each age/sex group. Survival rates were applied to each age/sex group to project future deaths in the population. These rates were based on Florida Life Tables for , calculated by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research using mortality data published by the Office of Vital Statistics in the Florida Department of Health. The survival rates were adjusted upward in 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035 to account for projected increases in life expectancy (U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division Working Paper No. 38, 2000). Domestic migration rates by age and sex were based on data from Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files from the American Community Survey (ACS). Since migration estimates from the ACS cover a one-year period, we developed a methodology for converting one-year data into five-year data. Using PUMS files, IRS migration records, and 1990 and 2000 census data, we developed a set of conversion factors and applied them to the PUMS data. The conversion process raised the one-year migration estimates by a factor of 3.0 for in-migration and by 3.4 for out-migration. We calculated in-migration rates by dividing the number

2 of persons moving to Florida from other states by the 2007 population of the United States (minus Florida) and calculated out-migration rates by dividing the number of persons leaving Florida by Florida s 2007 population. In both instances, rates were calculated separately for males and females for each five-year age group up to 85+. These in- and out-migration rates were weighted to account for changes in migration patterns and to provide alternative scenarios of future population growth. For each of the three series, projections of domestic in-migration were made by applying weighted in-migration rates to the projected population of the United States (minus Florida), using the most recent set of national projections produced by the U.S. Census Bureau. Projections of out-migration were made by applying weighted out-migration rates to the Florida population. Projections of foreign immigration were also based on data from the PUMS files. We converted one-year migration data to five-year data by multiplying them by five; this led to levels consistent with historical trends. For the high series, foreign immigration was projected to exceed the level by 10% for and by 25% for each five-year interval thereafter. For the medium series, foreign immigration was projected to remain at the level for all projection intervals. For the low series, foreign immigration was projected to be 10% less than the level for each projection interval. Foreign emigration was assumed to equal 22.5% of foreign immigration for each series of projections. The distribution of foreign immigrants by age and sex was based on the patterns observed between 2005 and Net migration is the difference between the number of inmigrants and the number of out-migrants. Reflecting the recent slowdown in migration to Florida, the medium projections imply net migration levels (including both domestic and foreign migrants) of 143,000 per year between 2010 and 2015 and between 223,000 and 235,000 per year thereafter. The high series implies net migration levels of 243,000 per year between 2010 and 2015 and 307, ,000 per year thereafter. The low series implies net migration levels of 62,000 per year between 2010 and 2015 and 121, ,000 per year thereafter. To put these numbers into perspective, net migration averaged 260, ,000 per year during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s and 230,000 per year between 2000 and Projections were made in five-year intervals, with each projection serving as the base for the following projection. Projected in-migration for each five-year interval was added to the survived Florida population at the end of the interval and projected out-migration was subtracted, giving a projection of the population age five and older. Births were projected by applying age-specific birth rates (adjusted for child mortality) to the projected female population. These birth rates were based on Florida birth data for and imply a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman. In the medium series, birth rates were projected to remain constant at levels. In the high series, birth rates were projected to remain constant at levels for , and to increase by 1% in each five-year interval thereafter. In the low series, birth rates were projected to remain constant at levels for , and to decrease by 1% in each five-year interval thereafter. Natural increase is the excess of births over deaths. In Florida, natural increase is currently about 40,000 per year. Our medium projections imply that it will decline over time, reaching -34,000 per year in (i.e., deaths will exceed births). Our high projections imply that natural increase will decline more slowly, falling to -8,000 in Our low projections show natural increase falling steadily over time, reaching -52,000 per year in As a final step, the medium projection of total population in 2015 was adjusted to be consistent with the most recent state population forecast produced by the State of Florida s Demographic Estimating Conference. None of the projections after 2015 had any further adjustments. County projections The cohort-component method is a good way to make population projections at the state level, but is not necessarily the best way to make projections at the county level. Many counties in Florida are so small that the number of persons in each age-sex category is inadequate for making reliable cohort-component projections. Even more important, county growth patterns are so volatile that a single technique based on data from a single time period may provide misleading results. We believe more useful projections of total population can be made by using several different techniques and historical base periods. For counties, we started with the population estimate produced by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research for April 1, We made projections for 2015 for each county using five different techniques. After 2015, the projections were made in five-year intervals. The five techniques were: 1. Linear the population will change by the same number of persons in each future year as the average annual change during the base period. 2. Exponential the population will change at the same percentage rate in each future year as the average annual rate during the base period. 3. Share-of-growth each county s share of state population growth in the future will be the same as its share during the base period. 2 Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 165

3 4. Shift-share each county s share of the state population will change by the same annual amount in the future as the average annual change during the base period. 5. Constant population each county s population will remain constant at its 2012 value. For the linear and share-of-growth techniques we used base periods of five, ten, and fifteen years ( , , and ), yielding three sets of projections for each technique. For the exponential and shift-share techniques we used a single base period of ten years ( ), yielding one set of projections for each technique. The constant population technique was based on data for a single year (2012). This methodology produced nine projections for each county for each projection year (2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040). From these we calculated four averages: one using all nine projections, one that excluded the highest and the lowest projection, one that excluded the two highest and the two lowest projections, and one that excluded the three highest and the three lowest projections. In 63 counties the medium projection was based on the average in which the three highest and the three lowest projections were excluded. In Escambia County we used the share-of-growth technique and a base period of 15 years; in Levy County we used the exponential technique and a base period of 10 years; in Monroe County we used an average of projections made with the constant population technique and the share-of-growth technique with a base period of 15 years; and in Pinellas County we used an average of projections made with the share-of-growth technique with a base period of 15 years and the share-of-growth technique with a base period of 10 years. In all counties, the projections were adjusted to be consistent with the total population change implied by the state projections. We also made adjustments in several counties to account for changes in institutional populations such as university students and prison inmates. Adjustments were made only in counties in which institutional populations account for a large proportion of total population or where changes in the institutional population have been substantially different than changes in the rest of the population. In the present set of projections, adjustments were made for Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Calhoun, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Glades, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okeechobee, Santa Rosa, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.. Range of projections The techniques described above were used to produce the medium series of county projections. This is the series we believe will generally provide the most accurate forecasts of future population change. We also produced low and high projections to provide an indication of the uncertainty surrounding the medium county projections. The low and high projections were based on analyses of past population forecast errors for counties in Florida, broken down by population size and growth rate. They indicate the range into which approximately three-quarters of future county populations will fall, if the future distribution of forecast errors is similar to its past distribution. The range between the low and high projections varies according to a county s population size in 2012 (less than 25,000; 25,000 to 199,999; and 200,000 or more), rate of population growth between 2002 and 2012 (less than 20%; 20 39%; and 40% or more), and the length of the projection horizon (mean absolute percent errors grow with the length of the projection horizon). Our studies have found that the distribution of absolute percent errors tends to remain fairly stable over time, leading us to believe that the low and high projections provide a reasonable range of errors for most counties. It must be emphasized, however, that the actual future population of any given county could be above the high projection or below the low projection. For the medium series of projections, the sum of the county projections equals the state projection for each year (except for slight differences due to rounding). For the low and high series, however, the sum of the county projections does not equal the state projection. The sum of the low projections for counties is lower than the state s low projection and the sum of the high projections for counties is higher than the state s high projection. This occurs because potential variation around the medium projection is greater for counties than for the state as a whole. Acknowledgement: Funding for these projections was provided by the Florida Legislature. Copyright 2013 by the University of Florida. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 165 3

Florida Population Atlas 1 Table of Contents About the Florida Population Atlas... 2 Explanation of Florida Population Characteristics and Trends..2-5 Figures & Maps... 6-30 Florida Population Characteristics

Help for Members Finding a New 2015 Health Plan Need help picking a new 2015 health plan? Here are the 10 most popular Florida Blue plans that members just like you are picking: BlueSelect Everyday 443

2000 Census Reports Florida Legislature Office of Economic & Demographic Research POVERTY IN FLORIDA October 2002 The overall poverty rate for persons in Florida as measured in the 2000 Census was 12.5

Florida Tax Credit Scholarship Program February 2015 Quarterly Report The Florida Tax Credit (FTC) Scholarship Program was established in 2001 to encourage private, voluntary contributions from corporate

Florida s Graduation Rate Florida s High School Cohort Graduation Rate 2014-15* Florida s high school graduation rate increased by 1.8 percentage points over the last year and has increased significantly

Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Trends Florida Fourth Quarter 2011 This report for Florida is part of the Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Trends series, released quarterly, which provides information

Single Sign On For: Re: District IT Staff SSO Admins Providing Access to PMRN through SSO PMRN Access through SSO Users must have a state ID populated in their SSO account (provided in the identity file

Q &A for Advocates: How Medicaid Is Changing in Florida for Those Needing Nursing Home, Assisted Living Facility, and At-Home Care What Is Managed Care? In traditional Medicaid, a consumer can seek care

State University System (SUS) Specific Appropriation 18 Maintenance, Repair, Renovation and Remodeling University of Florida 14,072,792 Florida State University 4,902,384 Florida Agricultural and Mechanical

Florida Interviews with 1,014 adult Floridians conducted by telephone by ORC International on March 2-6,. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage

Developmental Screening and School Readiness in Florida We Thought You d Never ASQ: How Our State Streamlined Screening for Children Birth to Five Kimberly Allen, M.Ed. Noelle Bee, M.S. Michelle Craig,

How Florida Counties Compare October 2011 About Florida TaxWatch Florida TaxWatch is a statewide, non-profit, non-partisan taxpayer research institute and government watchdog that over its 32-year history

A Guide for Florida Advocates Choosing a Managed Care Plan for Medicaid Long-Term Care How Is Florida Medicaid Changing its Long-Term Care Services? From August 2013 through March 2014, the Florida Medicaid

Business Expansion Through Exporting Cape Coral International Trade Summit June 7, 2011 2 Exporting Myths Only large multi-national companies can succeed in exporting A company needs a product in order

Table of Contents Why Are Changes Being Made to Florida s Medicaid Program?... 3 What Is Managed Care?... 3 When Will These Changes to Florida Medicaid Occur?... 3 What Is the Goal of the Florida Managed

Introduction to the Florida Standards Consortium for the and Delivery of on Tools to Support the Standards Introduction Through the Federal Race to the Top Grant, the Florida Department of Education has

Florida s Centers of Independent Living History The movement toward independent living began in 1962, when Ed Roberts started an independent living program for persons with disabilities on a US college

FLORIDA NETWORK FLORIDA DIVISION OF FIELD OFFICE AREA COORDINATORS Since they are constantly in the field and may be difficult to reach, the following seven field office area coordinators may also be reached

2010 Florida INSIDE FRONT COVER INTENTIONALLY BLANK Introduction Where we live matters to our health. The health of a community depends on many different factors, including quality of health care, individual

FIREMAN S FUND PERSONAL INSURANCE HOMEOWNERS and COLLECTIONS COVERAGE NEW AND RENEWAL BUSINESS GUIDELINES PRESTIGE HOME PREMIER HO3, HO4, HO6 All features and coverages must be present to be eligible for

MED145 Deliverable 1.4 DY14 Interim Report MED145 Deliverable 1.4 Interim Report Presented to by April 7, 2014 Family Data Center College of Medicine University of Florida i Table of Contents Introduction...

The Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research 850.487.1402 http://edr.state.fl.us Economic Development Incentives Report A summary of the local governments responses to the new reporting

Salaries of Elected County Constitutional Officers and School District Officials for Fiscal Year 2011-12 September 2011 The Florida Legislature s Office of Economic and Demographic Research Salaries of

2015 County Health Rankings Florida INTRODUCTION The County Health Rankings & Roadmaps program helps communities identify and implement solutions that make it easier for people to be healthy in their homes,

November 2010 Report No. 10-xx School Districts and Colleges Share Responsibility for Workforce Education; Duplication Is Minimal at a glance School districts and Florida College System institutions share

2016 County Health Rankings Florida INTRODUCTION The County Health Rankings & Roadmaps program brings actionable data and strategies to communities to make it easier for people to be healthy in their homes,

The CTE Equation in Florida A Research Study October 2015 $ The CTE Equation in Florida Christine Mokher, Christopher Sun, and Juliana Pearson October 2015 Unlimited distribution This report is published

Standard Email Subscription Don t get caught in the dark anymore! Get Connected Local Governments are making decisions that affect you every day. We can tell you what they are going to do before they do

Florida College System Community College and Technical Center MIS Selection Criteria Accountability 2014 V1.0 1 Florida College System Community College and Technical Center MIS Selection Criteria Accountability

Florida County & Municipal Economic Development - 2014 Survey Results A summary of Local Government responses to the reporting requirements outlined in sections 125.045 and 166.021, Florida Statutes. The

Dear fellow taxpayer, Each year, millions of tourists visit the Sunshine State to explore Florida s natural beauty and delight in its man-made thrills and attractions. The revenue collected from the state

Special Data Products The Fund SPECIAL DATA PRODUCTS SPECIAL DATA PRODUCTS FROM THE FUND ARE A GREAT WAY TO HELP YOU BETTER SERVE CUSTOMERS, MEET YOUR DATA NEEDS, AND DEVELOP NEW CLIENTS. The Fund is by

DR-15 Sales and Use Tax Return - Instructions for 2004 Line A, Sales/Services Sales means the total of all wholesale and retail sales transactions. Sales includes, but is not limited to: Sales, leases,