Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low pressure area (#1 on the satellite image) between the northern coast of Honduras and Grand Cayman has become better organized today. An air force reconnaissance plane is currently approaching the system to determine if a tropical depression has formed. Regardless, upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for development and a tropical depression will likely form at any time later today or Saturday. There is a high chance, 80 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. This system, accompanied by heavy rains and gusty winds, is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest and reach the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or two. All interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan should monitor the progress of this system.

A large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers (#2 on the satellite image) centered just east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This system has the potential for slow development as it moves toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. There is a low chance, 20 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.