Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Security In Iraq, Dec 22-28, 2015

Iraq ended 2015 on a good note taking central Ramadi after a
five month siege. There were still parts of the city to clear and most it was
destroyed leaving a huge reconstruction project for the future. Violence in the
rest of the country continued on the same pace as the last quarter of the year.

From December 22-28, 2015 there were 127 reported attacks in
Iraq. Baghdad was the most violent as usual with 59 incidents, along with 24 in
Ninewa, 21 in Anbar, 9 in Salahaddin, 7 in Diyala, 4 in Babil, 2 in Kirkuk, and
1 in Basra. There are always more attacks then what gets in the media.

Ninewa led the way with the most deaths during the week with
119 due to a combination of executions and attacks upon the Peshmerga. After
that there were 91 dead in Anbar, 58 in Baghdad, 10 in Diyala, 7 in Babil, 5
Salahaddin, and 2 in Kirkuk. That broke down further as 3 Hashd al-Shaabi, 13
Volunteers at the Bashiqa camp in Ninewa, 17 Sahwa, 21 Peshmerga, 22 members of
the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 216 civilians fatalities and 5 Hashd, 7
Peshmerga, 8 Turkish soldier trainers, 12 ISF, 16 Bashiqa camp volunteers, and
298 civilians injured. In total there were 292 reported killed and 346 wounded,
but the real numbers are always higher.

The biggest news was obviously the storming of central
Ramadi. On December
22 the attack began from two different directions. The next day the ISF
were said to be 1 kilometer from the government center in downtown (1), before
finally taking it on December
27, and then the city was declared liberated
on the 28th. Depending upon the source 25-30% of Ramadi is still
under IS control especially in the north and east. The same is true of many of
the surrounding towns and suburbs. Albu Diab and Jeraishi for example were
declared freed on December
22, but fighting continued there. If these areas are not cleared out IS
will be able to re-infiltrate into other places and continue to threaten the
city. There’s also the huge task of rebuilding Ramadi, which one member of the
Anbar provincial council said could
take up to 10 years. Overall, re-taking of Ramadi was a huge victory for
the Iraqi government and its security forces. They were able to show that they
could seize a large city without the help of the Hashd who were largely
excluded from the offensive. It also revealed that the Islamic State couldn’t
hold any large urban area in the country against a determined assault. It simply
lacks the manpower to do so.

As IS has shifted to the defensive it has picked up its
terrorist attacks on Baghdad. For a second week the eastern district had the
most incidents at 18 with 17 more in the south, 9 in the north, 7 in the center
and 6 in the west. Not all the security events in the east were due to the
insurgents such as two robberies, a stabbing and a kidnapping. The 6 IEDs there
however was the work of IS. As usual the main form of violence in the province
were bombs with 45 total.

Diyala was hit by two car bombs during the week. On December
23 two detonated in Khalis. Diyala was a regular target of such attacks
during the fall, but they are now rare since IS ended its car bomb campaign
with the last vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) occurring a
month ago. IS also fired
mortars onto three towns, which has been happening off and on for the last
several weeks. Despite these incidents the province is relatively quiet as IS
is mostly using it as launching pad for operations in other parts of the
country.

Ninewa led the country in deaths during the week because of
a combination of IS executions and a new winter offensive by the group. 74
people were killed by IS from December 22-28 in Mosul, Badush, Qayara and
Hadbaa including 3 police, 6 teachers, and 8 sheikhs. IS also continued with
its attacks upon the Peshmerga and the Bashiqa camp. On December
22 mortars were fired on Tal Reem killing 7 Peshmerga and wounding 2. December
24 12 suicide bombers led an assault upon Khaza that was turned back with
the help of U.S. air strikes. December
26 two more suicide bombers were used in the Sinjar district killing 9
Peshmerga and injuring 5. December 27 Wanke
was attacked, and then Makhmour
with 3 suicide bombers the next day, along with mortar
fire on three towns. IS also attacked
the Bashiqa camp for the third time with mortars killing 13 volunteers,
wounding 16 others along with 8 Turkish trainers. IS initiated a similar offensive
against the Kurds in the north during last winter. The group was hoping that
the bad weather would allow it to launch surprise attacks upon the Kurdish
positions and give them cover from coalition air strikes. Like the last time,
that didn’t work. The militants also attacked the Bashiqa camp since it has
been in the news so much lately because of a Baghdad-Ankara dispute over
Turkish troops stationed there.

Tuz Kharmato in Salahaddin had another flare up. On December
26 two people were kidnapped, and there was a drive by
shooting that killed a Peshmerga. Then the next day there was a gunfight between Turkmen Hashd and
the Federal Police. The district was cleared in October 2014, but has seen
constant flare ups since then as the Hashd and Peshmerga both want control over
it, and there are also local disputes between residents all leading to constant
tensions.

Finally, there were 13 VBIEDs during the week. That was the
fewest car bombs in a week since the middle of June. Three reached their
targets in Albu Diab, Anbar and two in Diyala killing 38 and wounding 18. The
other 11 were destroyed. All of those occurred in Anbar and Diyala. Before IS
was in the midst of its latest car bomb campaign with around 50 such attacks
per week. That has now ended.

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. I have written for the Jamestown Foundation, Tom Ricks’ Best Defense at Foreign Policy and the Daily Beast, and was responsible for a chapter in the book Volatile Landscape: Iraq And Its Insurgent Movements. My work has been published in Iraq via NRT, AK News, Al-Mada, Sotaliraq, All Iraq News, and Ur News all in Iraq. I was interviewed on BBC Radio 5, Radio Sputnik, CCTV and TRT World News TV, and have appeared in CNN, the Christian Science Monitor, The National, Columbia Journalism Review, Mother Jones, PBS’ Frontline, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for the Study of War, Radio Free Iraq, Rudaw, and others. I have also been cited in Iraq From war To A New Authoritarianism by Toby Dodge, Imagining the Nation Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-Political Conflict in Iraq by Harith al-Qarawee, ISIS Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassahn, The Rise of the Islamic State by Patrick Cocburn, and others. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com