At quick glance, one would think this data bode poorly for Friday’s report. But consider this: Yesterday’s employment index in the ISM manufacturing report showed substantial improvement. It also echoed accelerations in the employment indexes of several regional manufacturing reports over the last few weeks.

With multiple signs pointing toward an improving jobs market, ADP’s report — which is historically volatile — should be taken with a rather large grain of salt.

“Given the poor record of this report…we will caution about reading too much into this report and see no reason to revise our more optimistic forecast,” TD Securities says, while sticking with its estimate for 185,000 jobs added in the government’s upcoming monthly report.