Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Mike Espy fought to a draw — roughly 41 percent of the vote each — in Tuesday's special Mississippi U.S. Senate race and head to a Nov. 27 runoff, the Tuesday after Thanksgiving.

So what will it take for either to win the seat vacated by longtime Republican Sen. Thad Cochran?

For both, the short answer is turning out voters — turning out voters over the holiday season when politics and voting are the last things on their minds and most of the rest of the nation has moved on to other topics.

Mississippi was expected to be a key partisan battleground if majority control still hung in the balance on Nov. 27. That would have brought the glare of the national spotlight and unprecedented campaign spending. But after Tuesday it appears the GOP will at the least increase its margin from 51-49 to 52-48, and potentially add a couple more. Mississippi's race will draw attention and spending — a U.S. Senate seat always does — but not the maelstrom an in-play majority would have brought.

How could Espy win?

Espy performed well, and helped drive a large turnout Tuesday, at least by midterm standards. But he faces a long shot in a deep-red state that hasn't elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1982. To win, Espy needs to:

Continue to raise money. Espy did well with fundraising before the first vote, raising about $2 million as Hyde-Smith raised about $3 million. Outside groups spent well over $3 million helping each candidate as well. But the massive ground game — boots on the ground, knocking on doors — and advertising over the next three weeks to get out lethargic voters will take much more. Hyde-Smith, the interim senator with the GOP leadership's backing, will likely have little problem raising money or with staffing a ground game.

Turn out Democrats who didn't vote Tuesday. Nathan Shrader, political science co-chairman at Millsaps College, said, "There are Democratic-leaning voters in counties all over the state who did not vote and even among voters otherwise well informed, many think that because they didn't vote in the first election, they can't in a runoff. That's not true, but many voters don't realize that, and the Espy campaign will have to engage in strategic education on that."

Turn out African-American voters. Again, with drop-off in interest in a runoff, turnout is a challenge. Longtime professor and former Stennis Institute of Government Director Marty Wiseman said, "You would say, 'Surely the black community will get out and vote to get the first African American elected to the Senate since Reconstruction,'" Wiseman said. "But one thing I always hearken back to is the flag vote (to remove the Confederate emblem from the state flag). The turnout of the black vote in the Delta was horrible, 20 percent or less on something you would think would be the issue of a lifetime. It's just a fact that in a race like this — very focused and small interest — the tendency for the black vote is to stay home."

How could Hyde-Smith win?

Hyde-Smith, appointed to temporarily fill the Senate seat in April, had to fend off challenges from the right and left in the general. She's no stranger to statewide campaigns, having won twice as Mississippi's Republican agriculture commissioner. To win, Hyde-Smith needs to:

Unite the GOP. All other things being equal, Hyde-Smith can win Nov. 27 by simply hauling in a little over half the 16 percent vote that went to fellow Republican challenger Chris McDaniel. While this might seem a given, McDaniel and his supporters focused more of their energy against Hyde-Smith than they did Espy in the general. McDaniel and his hardcore conservative supporters despise the GOP "establishment" in Jackson and Washington and pegged Hyde-Smith as a prime example of it. They could sit out the runoff. But Hyde-Smith has the endorsement of President Trump — still very popular among the most conservative GOP. And McDaniel on Tuesday endorsed Hyde-Smith and vowed to help unite Republicans behind her and against Espy.

Bring Trump back. Trump's Oct. 3 rally in Southaven obviously helped Hyde-Smith in the polls. Her every speech and her ads declare fealty to Trump and her campaign bus features his image writ-large on the side. Trump likes rallies. Hyde-Smith needs his help. Hyde-Smith supporters have been surmising a return visit from Trump before Nov. 27 is likely.

Discourage complacency. With many in the GOP breathing a sigh of relief over Senate midterm results and Hyde-Smith making it to a runoff, she faces the risk of complacency among voters. Hyde-Smith and the state and national Republican parties will have to counter this. The above-mentioned Trump rally would help with that, and Gov. Phil Bryant and others are likely to be out on the trail for Hyde-Smith through Thanksgiving.

Debate Espy. Hyde-Smith refused to publicly debate her opponents before the general election, which drew criticism from both Espy and McDaniel, the public and media. One of Espy's first orders of business the morning after Tuesday's vote was to challenge Hyde-Smith to a pre-runoff debate. Hyde-Smith had indicated shortly before the election that she's open to debating Espy before the runoff. Shrader said: "I think she has to debate. I would describe it as a crime against democracy not to debate ... One of the criticisms of her, not just from Democrats, but McDaniel, is that if you're running for Senate, especially for your first full term, voters deserve to hear from you and about you side-by-side with your opponent."

History will be made

Whatever the outcome on Nov. 27, history will be made. Hyde-Smith would be the first woman ever elected to represent Mississippi in the Senate, and Espy would be the first African-American elected since Reconstruction. The winner will serve out the final two years of Cochran's term and, if history holds true, probably serve there for many years.

Both candidates have said they and their teams are ready for the challenge of a holiday-season runoff and turning out voters.

"I’m going to make sure Mississippi continues to rise," Espy told his election-night crowd gathered in Jackson, mentioning health care would be a priority. "I’m going to stand for health care and making sure all these rural hospitals do not close ... I promise you I will be out there with you.

"Will you stand with me?" Espy said. "Together we can make sure Mississippi continues to rise above, together we can make sure Mississippi continues to move forward. And after three weeks, I promise you I’ll be the best senator Mississippi has ever had.”

Hyde-Smith on Tuesday vowed "Republicans are going to keep this seat," and that she would "fight like nobody's business the next three weeks."

"No Democrat is going to take over here while I am here as you're candidate," she told her crowd in Jackson. "We have got to unite," she said, adding she wanted to "get back up there" to help with Trump's agenda.

Espy, 64, of Madison, is an attorney, a former U.S. representative and former U.S. secretary of agriculture in the Clinton administration. In 1986 he was elected Mississippi's first African-American in Congress since Reconstruction and in 1993 became the first African-American secretary of agriculture with President Bill Clinton's appointment.

Hyde-Smith, 59, of Brookhaven is a cattle farmer and stockyard/auction owner, former state senator and former state agriculture commissioner — the first woman to hold that post. Bryant in April appointed Hyde-Smith to temporarily fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Thad Cochran, making Hyde-Smith the first female to represent Mississippi in the U.S. Senate.

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Democrat Mike Espy speaks at a campaign party in Jackson after it was announced he'll face Cindy Hyde-Smith in runoff for U.S. Senate seat.
Barbara Gauntt, Clarion-Ledger

Mississippi midterm results

Here are the unofficial results of Tuesday's federal midterm elections in Mississippi, according to the Associated Press.