FMF Elo Micras Rankings

The FMF Elo Micras Rankings are the official ranking system used by the FMF. Introduced in late 2018, the ratings show the relative strength of the various national football teams of Micras. The rating system is inspired by and based on the real life World Football Elo Ratings, with the exception that home advantage is not taken into consideration in the FMF's ratings.

"Points Change" is rounded to the nearest integer before updating the team rating.

Status of match

The status of the match is incorporated by the use of a weight constant. The constant reflects the importance of a match, which, in turn, is determined entirely by which tournament the match is in; the weight constant for each major tournament is:

Number of goals

The number of goals is taken into account by use of a goal difference index.

If the game is a draw or is won by one goal

G = 1

If the game is won by two goals

G = 1.5

If the game is won by three or more goals

Where N is the goal difference

G = (11 + N)/8

Table of examples:

Goal Difference

G

0

1

+1

1

+2

1.5

+3

1.75

+4

1.875

+5

2

+6

2.125

Result of match

W is the result of the game (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss). This also holds when a game is won or lost on extra time. If the match is decided on penalties, however, the result of the game is considered a draw (W = 0.5).

Expected result of match

We is the expected result (win expectancy with a draw counting as 0.5) from the following formula:

We = 1/(10–dr/400 +1)

where dr equals the difference in ratings. So dr of 0 gives 0.5, of 120 gives 0.666 to the higher-ranked team and 0.334 to the lower, and of 800 gives 0.99 to the higher-ranked team and 0.01 to the lower.

Standings

Current standings

Historical standings

Following the announcement of the FMF Elo Micras Rankings, the FMF published a list of backdated rankings, which documented the Elo ratings after the completion of each summer's FMF World Cup, and the completion of the continental championships in 2016 and 2018. Each ranking documented all the teams that participated in that tournament's qualification campaign, regardless of whether they left the FMF prior to the completion of the tournament's finals, and any teams that played friendly matches between the start of qualifying and the end of the finals tournaments. These ratings were calculated by AEFA President Barnaby Rudolph.

Biggest upsets

This is a list of matches with the biggest point exchange. Since the importance of the match and the goal differential are factored in the exchange, these are not necessarily the most surprising results as expressed by the difference in Elo rating. Under these terms, matches such as the 3–2 friendly victory of Incontinentia (rating 1380) over Hamland (rating 2155) in June 2012 (a 775-point difference) could be considered the most surprising.The nations' points before the matches are given.

Deceased nations' end ratings

This table shows the final rating of nations which have left the FMF. The ratings are maintained to be provisionally used should any nation ever return to Micras, subject to FMF approval. This list does not include nations who changed name or are considered official predecessor teams to other nations.