I would gladly trade a slim chance at the #1 seed for a good chance at the division crown. The wildcard is slipping away faster than the division at this point. Punch your ticket to the dance, first class or coach, then figure it out from there.

WindCityHawk wrote:I would gladly trade a slim chance at the #1 seed for a good chance at the division crown. The wildcard is slipping away faster than the division at this point. Punch your ticket to the dance, first class or coach, then figure it out from there.

Of course, when it comes to firing coaches, just getting to the playoffs isn't nearly good enough.

For me, it doesn't need to be the #1 seed. #2 or #3 is better than #5.

Looking at the playoff outcomes, with a Seattle win out there is a good chance of the number 2 seed, with the NFC South beating each other and the Rams taking the other wildcard.

I for one am not fussed at all if the Rams win this week, and hand Eagles their 3rd loss. Basically if we get in a 3 way tie at the top of NFC with 12-4 records, it looks like Seattle takes the 2 seed in all scenarios...I'll now wait to see if someone more knowledgeable than me blows this theory into the water.

original poster wrote:If Seattle win Sunday and so do the Rams, Seattle will still be atop the NFCW if they win against LA the following Sunday.

That is true but Seattle would have absolutely no margin to spare since the Seahawks would be on top because of head to head. OTOH, if the Rams lose and Seattle wins, then Seattle can essentially take the division with a win against the Rams the following week since Seattle would have to lose out and the Rams would have to win out in order for the Rams to take the NFC West. The Rams could easily win out after Seattle, but it's very unlikely that Seattle would lose out.

Thus I agree with the poster above: Better to root for a scenario where your chance for a division crown is almost guaranteed rather than root for a scenario of first round bye or nothing. Just my take.

Followthelegion wrote:Looking at the playoff outcomes, with a Seattle win out there is a good chance of the number 2 seed, with the NFC South beating each other and the Rams taking the other wildcard.

I for one am not fussed at all if the Rams win this week, and hand Eagles their 3rd loss. Basically if we get in a 3 way tie at the top of NFC with 12-4 records, it looks like Seattle takes the 2 seed in all scenarios...I'll now wait to see if someone more knowledgeable than me blows this theory into the water.

Minnesota and Philly would both have to lose two more, and New Orleans one more, to NFC opponents in order to tie Seattle at 12-4. It would then come down to strength of victory, and Minnesota and New Orleans have beaten tougher teams than Seattle has. It could happen (and our winning out against a tough December schedule would certainly boost our SOV), but it's not entirely in our control.

Followthelegion wrote:Looking at the playoff outcomes, with a Seattle win out there is a good chance of the number 2 seed, with the NFC South beating each other and the Rams taking the other wildcard.

I for one am not fussed at all if the Rams win this week, and hand Eagles their 3rd loss. Basically if we get in a 3 way tie at the top of NFC with 12-4 records, it looks like Seattle takes the 2 seed in all scenarios...I'll now wait to see if someone more knowledgeable than me blows this theory into the water.

Minnesota and Philly would both have to lose two more, and New Orleans one more, to NFC opponents in order to tie Seattle at 12-4. It would then come down to strength of victory, and Minnesota and New Orleans have beaten tougher teams than Seattle has. It could happen (and our winning out against a tough December schedule would certainly boost our SOV), but it's not entirely in our control.

#3 seed is most likely if we win out.

I agree. The best chance for Seattle to get a first round bye would be:

1. Seattle wins out.2. Minnesota and Philly somehow drop two of their remaining four3. Atlanta wins the NFC South and/or New Orleans somehow loses two of their remaining four.

In that case, Minny would win the initial 12-4 three way tie for home field, and then Seattle would get the #2 seed by virtue of Head to Head vs the Eagles.

The #2 seed looks tough right now because we are behind both the Saints and the Vikings in the strength of victory tie-breaker (winning percentage of opponents you beat). However, it's entirely plausible that the Panthers, Falcons and Rams could win this week and then things would look much better for a bye.

The great thing about probability is that it resets every week and what looks unlikely now could change significantly on a week to week basis.

Rooting for the Rams this week is nuts. If the Rams win then when we beat them we will only be tied with them and if we lay an egg the following week against Dallas we could lose the division. And I could see us laying in egg against Dallas. Alternatively, we could lay an egg against Jacksonville on Sunday and if the Rams beat the Eagles we are two behind the Rams and still need help even if we beat them and I don’t see that help coming in the last two weeks. I also don’t see the Eagles losing to either the Raiders, giants or Dallas so our chances at a bye are unrealistic.

I could see a situation where we beat Jacksonville and the Rams, and the Rams beat the Eagles on Sunday at which time we would be tied with the Rams for the division but hold the tiebreaker after our game. The following weekend we lay an egg against Dallas and lose the division by one game to the Rams. And if we lose to Jacksonville which is certainly possible, we absolutely need Eagles to be the Rams otherwise we may be out of the playoffs.

There is absolutely no logical reason to root for the Rams because the eagles are not losing again after the Rams game if they lose that game.

WindCityHawk wrote:I would gladly trade a slim chance at the #1 seed for a good chance at the division crown. The wildcard is slipping away faster than the division at this point. Punch your ticket to the dance, first class or coach, then figure it out from there.

Of course, when it comes to firing coaches, just getting to the playoffs isn't nearly good enough.

For me, it doesn't need to be the #1 seed. #2 or #3 is better than #5.

NJlargent wrote:There is absolutely no logical reason to root for the Rams because the eagles are not losing again after the Rams game if they lose that game.

That isn't logical at all. Even heavy favorites in the NFL only win ~80% of the time and winning three in a row is far from certain. The simplified calculation looks something like this:- Eagles @Giants: 85%- Eagles vs. Raiders: 75%- Eagles vs. Cowboys: 70%Likelihood of 3 Eagles wins = 85% * 75% * 70% = 45% (slightly unlikely)

Furthermore, the reality is actually much more complicated because individual NFL outcomes are not independent. In other words, if the Eagles lose to the Rams then we'll have learned some information that slightly downgrades their chance at winning future games. It may be something really minor like a couple of unlucky bounces, or it might be something major like a concussion to Wentz. The complicated way of calculating this is with a Monte Carlo that modifies likelihoods based on previous outcomes, and the general takeaway is that uncertainty about a game occurring 3 weeks from now is quite high. What seems obvious to you today may very well change as events unfold.

The Giants and/or raiders are not beating the eagles who will be favored by 8+ in both games (even if they get blown out by the rams). Dallas may have nothing to play for when they play the eagles. The chances of us losing to Jax or at Dallas are much higher than the eagles dropping a game to the giants or raiders.

We are in a dog fight for the division. All this talk of byes is meaningless if we don't take the division. We could easily beat the Rams in 2 weeks, go 2-2 down the stretch with road losses to Dallas and Jax and lose the division and be out of the playoffs entirely.

As such, I will be cheering against the Rams every week until we've secured the division title.

Goals are always in this heirarchy: Win your Division -> Get a Bye -> Get the top seed. Don't go hoping for byes and top seeds when the division goal hasn't been met yet.

Mad Dog wrote:We are in a dog fight for the division. All this talk of byes is meaningless if we don't take the division. We could easily beat the Rams in 2 weeks, go 2-2 down the stretch with road losses to Dallas and Jax and lose the division and be out of the playoffs entirely.

As such, I will be cheering against the Rams every week until we've secured the division title.

Goals are always in this heirarchy: Win your Division -> Get a Bye -> Get the top seed. Don't go hoping for byes and top seeds when the division goal hasn't been met yet.

I'm hoping for a Super Bowl win and we haven't even got to the playoffs, so I think it's OK to hope for whatever I want.

vin.couve12 wrote:Kind of surprised at the outright lack of confidence in the Seahawks.

Well like Aros said, this game at Jax is the sort of game that the Seahawks tend to lose. I don't think we will mind you, but if the 'hawks *had* to lose any of the four remaining games, this would be the one I'd pick. That said, I like safety margins. If we can get a one game edge on the Rams before we face them, I'd feel better. Just sayin'

This is what happens when you start slow sometimes, making up games at the end of the year when everyone is typically getting better unless the Injury bug hits is hard, I would be happy with the division, as stated in another thread Vikings are now indoors so not so big a deal now, but they are a team that's dangerous, our advantage going forward is playoff experience and knowing how to ramp it up, Saints also have a team to worry about and they have playoff experience in their coaches and a fair amount of players so will be a tough team to get past whether it's here or there.

As another posted pointed out, I can easily see Philly dropping their game against the Rams then another one of NY, Oakland or the Cowboys. There is nothing to stop them from totally imploding right at the end, many of their fans are kind of preparing themselves for it already.

No way the second seed is happening. First off neither Vikings or Eagles are dropping two of their next 4 games. Lastly Seattle's remaining schedule is brutal. Jags( elite defense/ running game) on the road, Incredibly balanced Rams team at the Clink where Hawks have layed stinkers this year, Cowboys on the Road with a Hungry Zeke back, Cardinals at the Clink with Palmer likely being back. Brutal remaining schedule. You wan't Rams to lose Sunday 100%. We want the division.

RCATES wrote:No way the second seed is happening. First off neither Vikings or Eagles are dropping two of their next 4 games. Lastly Seattle's remaining schedule is brutal. Jags( elite defense/ running game) on the road, Incredibly balanced Rams team at the Clink where Hawks have layed stinkers this year, Cowboys on the Road with a Hungry Zeke back, Cardinals at the Clink with Palmer likely being back. Brutal remaining schedule. You wan't Rams to lose Sunday 100%. We want the division.

Don't Need the Vikings to drop, give them the #1.

#2 is between the Seahawks & Eagles if they lose to the Rams and 1 other game. With the Saints losing 1 more.

Hypothetical

#1 Vikings 13-3 or 14-2.#2 Seahawks 12-4 (head to head tie breaker over the Eagles.)#3 Eagles 12-4.#4 11-5 NFC South Division Winner. (Saints need to drop 1 more.)#5 Rams 12-4 or 11-5 (Seahawks have head to head tie breaker if 12-4.)#6 NFC South 2nd place team.

This is a plausible outcome especially if the Rams win on Sunday, and the proper outcome for Seahawks fans to root for. (But could become very likely in two weeks if things go right.)

Just to clarify I'm not saying it's likely now, just what Hawk fans should be rooting for.

But, but, the division???? Some would ask.

-> See the last 2 yrs. <- Getting a 1st round bye is everything. There isn't much diff between being a WC or non bye week div winner % wise going to the Superbowl, but the % swings big time if you can get that 1st round bye. Like 4x more likely.

Fun Fact: The Seahawks have never made a Superbowl without a 1st round bye. So why would any Seahawks fan root against that possibility? (Essentially what you are doing if you are rooting for the Eagles to win.) I would say it is even more critical this year due to the early bye the team had, they are going to need a week off to get ready for a playoff run, they will be too beat up to do so otherwise.

If we lose to Jax (and we are currently 2.5 point underdogs) and the Rams beat the eagles, we are 2 back with 3 to play and with Atlanta winning last night we could be out of the playoffs if we don’t win the division. And there are Seattle fans rooting for the Rams on Sunday.

Mad Dog wrote:We are in a dog fight for the division. All this talk of byes is meaningless if we don't take the division. We could easily beat the Rams in 2 weeks, go 2-2 down the stretch with road losses to Dallas and Jax and lose the division and be out of the playoffs entirely.

As such, I will be cheering against the Rams every week until we've secured the division title.

Goals are always in this heirarchy: Win your Division -> Get a Bye -> Get the top seed. Don't go hoping for byes and top seeds when the division goal hasn't been met yet.

I'm hoping for a Super Bowl win and we haven't even got to the playoffs, so I think it's OK to hope for whatever I want.

True we can "pie in the sky" hope for a lot of things. I hope I win powerball before I retire.But it's still silly to put the cart before the horse in my book.

Until the Seahawks win the division, I'll be cheering against the Rams. I have little faith that we will win out given the nature of our four opponents and the nature of the Seahawks themselves. So getting as many losses on the Rams is probably going to be exceedingly important.

RCATES wrote:No way the second seed is happening. First off neither Vikings or Eagles are dropping two of their next 4 games. Lastly Seattle's remaining schedule is brutal. Jags( elite defense/ running game) on the road, Incredibly balanced Rams team at the Clink where Hawks have layed stinkers this year, Cowboys on the Road with a Hungry Zeke back, Cardinals at the Clink with Palmer likely being back. Brutal remaining schedule. You wan't Rams to lose Sunday 100%. We want the division.

NJlargent wrote:If we lose to Jax (and we are currently 2.5 point underdogs) and the Rams beat the eagles, we are 2 back with 3 to play and with Atlanta winning last night we could be out of the playoffs if we don’t win the division. And there are Seattle fans rooting for the Rams on Sunday.

You're getting a little twisted around the axle. It's not as if who we root for has any effect on who actually wins.

I want the two seed. Bye week home divisional is incredibly valuable this season. As the Falcons won, need NO to drop one of the last three and were up on them. Now that the first shoe has dropped, definitely going to root for the Rams, as that means one more loss (essentially rooting for Dallas to beat the Eagles wk 17) and we get the two seed.

I’m basically of the opinion that if we don’t win the last four then seeding won’t really matter; home or away for the wild card doesn’t make that much difference for this specific Seahawks team. A bye week and home game makes a huge difference.

Don't sleep on the Raiders guys, they play the Eagles @ night. Circadian rhythms are a real thing, and west coast teams have an advantage playing at night. The Rams game is the big one though.

If the Hawks win, and the Rams win this week. The #2 seed will be right there. Only 2 more losses will need to happen (1 by the Eagles, 1 by the Saints) over the final 3 weeks if the Hawks take care of their business.

1. The number 1 seed is possible though unlikely.2. The number 2 seed is possible and we don't need a lot of help to get there.3. The number 3 and 4 seeds are very possible.4. Being the 5 or 6 seed is possible, but only if bad things happen.5. We could miss the playoffs though that is unlikely.

If you don't understand why this was worth rooting for before we lost then you haven't been thinking clearly or don't understand math. Of course it was predicated on us winning. I will always root for the best possible outcome given the current possibilities. As it worked out it we lost and it was good the Eagles won as we still have a chance at the division title. It's not about rooting for the wrong or right outcome, it's about rooting for the best outcome. People coming in here and doing the "I told you so" are missing the point.

SMH at people that just don't get how razor thin the margins between playoffs and no playoffs. We need to win our division. So never cheer for a rival to win.

And if you think all seasons that don't end in a championship are failures, then I'd really like to know the bar for success you've set for yourself. Winning a SB is perhaps the toughest things to do in sports. Its so damn competitive. I doubt any of us have even come close to that degree of success in our lives and yet we complain about a team that fails in that task.

Fade wrote:The season is pretty much over now. If you want to watch how it ends, watch last season, and the season before. They needed the #2 Seed.

The best case scenario is they get to the divisional round & get blown out. That is the best case scenario.

Needed the #2.

You are looking at this as a determinist, when you should be considering probability. The probability may be low, but there still exists a chance to compete for a Super Bowl without being a No. 1 or 2 seed. Upsets happen all the time. 10 wild-card teams have advanced to the Super Bowl. Once you get into the playoffs, the single-game-elimination madness begins.

Mad Dog wrote:So are we still happy about hoping for the Rams to beat the Eagles?

SMH at people that just don't get how razor thin the margins between playoffs and no playoffs. We need to win our division. So never cheer for a rival to win.

And if you think all seasons that don't end in a championship are failures, then I'd really like to know the bar for success you've set for yourself. Winning a SB is perhaps the toughest things to do in sports. Its so damn competitive. I doubt any of us have even come close to that degree of success in our lives and yet we complain about a team that fails in that task.

You are being thick skulled or purposefully misreading what I've written.