MH17: it may only get more difficult from here

Any hopes that the MH17 atrocity might have acted as a circuit breaker in the Ukrainian conflict, bringing a truce or shaming Moscow-backed separatists into greater co-operation, appear to be dashed. Prime Minister
Tony Abbott
has shown outstanding international leadership in this disaster, firing world resolve along with Foreign Minister
Julie Bishop
. But from here on in, it is facts on the ground that will decide what we can do. The difficulties that Australian and Dutch police – kept unarmed to underscore their humanitarian purpose, and at considerable risk to themselves – have had just getting onto the site in recent days are proof of that. Australia last week won a strong UN Security Council resolution demanding proper removal of the dead from the site, and a proper crash investigation there. But if anything, the civil conflict around the crash site has intensified as Ukrainian forces try to cut off separatist strongholds, while credible reports say Russian troops are now joining in directly, shelling Ukraine from over the border.

The head of the US armed forces, General Martin Dempsey, has said that he believes
Vladimir Putin
is going for broke in the crisis, escalating rather than de-escalating the war. This week, the European Union will debate beefed-up sanctions which will join the US in cutting off Russian state-owned banks from capital markets. That means Germany, with its heavy political and financial investment in Russia, further shifting ground against the Kremlin. Will Mr Putin listen then, or change his stance?