Massey-Peabody: NFL Playoff Projections (Week 11)

Wharton professor Cade Massey and Las Vegas sports analyst Rufus Peabody run 10,000 full-season simulations each week. The winner of each game is determined by Massey-Peabody power rankings, home-field advantage and chance. While the starting point for each team is their current Massey-Peabody rating (see Massey-Peabody.com for details), subsequent ratings change in response to simulation results. So if the Chiefs upset the Broncos Sunday night in Denver, Kansas City’s Super Bowl probability will rise and Denver’s will fall. Playoff probabilities account for NFL tiebreaking procedures and seeding rules.

The Broncos (8-1) are expected to take hold of the AFC West division by beating Chiefs (9-0), a win that will also put them in control of the top AFC playoff seed. This projected home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is a major factor in their NFL-leading 26% chance to win the Super Bowl. No other AFC teams cracks double digits when it comes to the likelihood of winning the big game, but, interestingly, the Patriots, Bengals and Colts are each projected to win their divisions by larger margins than Denver.

The biggest unsettled aspect of the AFC playoff race is the race for the sixth and final wildcard spot. Currently, the Jets are the only wining team (5-4) among the contenders and advance to the postseason in 28% of simulations, followed by the Titans (19%), Chargers (18%), Ravens (17%), Dolphins (16%), Browns (14%) and Steelers (10%). But these simulations are only through Week 10 so they do not include the Titans’ home loss Thursday to the Colts, 30-27.

In the NFC, the Seahawks (9-1) are the clear favorites to easily win the NFC West and secure the conference’s No. 1 seeding. While they win the Super Bowl only 20% of the time, Seattle makes it to the final game more than twice as often.

Unlike in the AFC, the two NFC wildcard seeds seem fairly certain to come from the runners-up in the NFC West (most likely the 49ers) and South (the Panthers and Saints still face each other twice). So the bulk of NFC playoff uncertainty is concentrated in division battles in the NFC East and North. The Cowboys are more than twice as likely to win the East as their next closest competitor, the Eagles. And the Lions are now an even bigger favorite in the North than Dallas in the East, given the uncertain quarterback situations of the Packers and Bears. But Green Bay and Chicago still manage to advance to the playoffs 23% and 16% of the time, respectively.

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