Washington gets a dose of kitchen-table economics

Washington  The debt crisis has brought the government to the “kitchen table” to do something that hard-pressed families do routinely, which is tear their hair out over how to pay the bills.

Pawn the family jewelry? Emptying gold reserves at Fort Knox and other repositories could raise a very handy $400 billion.

Sell the property that has been in the family for generations? Yosemite National Park would fetch a pretty penny.

At least so far, such last-gasp ideas are not in serious play at Washington’s kitchen table. But as the Aug. 2 deadline approaches for raising the country’s borrowing limit, you can bet someone in the government is thinking about them. Economists are.

“The consequences of America defaulting on its debt are so unthinkable, catastrophic and costly that we should consider anything,” said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at the Martin Smith College of Business at California State University. “Sell gold, sell oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, do ANYTHING to avoid a default.”

In short, the nation is like a family that’s overextended and close to wits’ end.

To carry on without going deeper in debt, this family would have to cut its monthly bills by 70 percent or get a huge pay increase at work, enough to raise their income by nearly two-thirds. Now.

Then they could scrape by without borrowing more, at least for a little while.

So calculates the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service in describing the only way the government could move ahead without taking on more debt. An end to discretionary spending, a 70 percent cut in mandatory spending or an enormous boost in tax revenue would suffice, but only for this year, it says. Then it gets even worse.

Nothing like that will happen.

The government is almost certain to raise its debt limit and carry on borrowing something like 40 cents out of every dollar it spends.

The question is whether it will do so in time to avoid late interest payments and economic turmoil, and what size spending cuts, tax increases or both will become part of the deal.

Nothing is stopping Congress from voting to raise the debt limit today. The holdup is over how to reduce future budget shortfalls, which both parties say must be done.

Republicans want a huge cut in government spending. President Barack Obama wants smaller, but still substantial cuts, plus more money coming in from taxes, which Republicans oppose.

To get around this, an idea has picked up steam to let the head of the household increase the debt limit on his own, under certain conditions, and take the heat off the fractious family to agree on all the spending cuts and revenue increases now.

The government bought some time in the middle of May, when it stopped making payments to federal employee retirement funds, the equivalent of halting contributions to your 401(k). The government will make up the lost retirement investments later, plus interest, keeping the funds whole.

But there are no such bookkeeping maneuvers left, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says, “no way to give Congress more time.”

Some big payments are coming due, including $23 billion for Social Security checks on Aug. 2, $87 billion the next day to redeem maturing Treasury securities and more than $30 billion in interest payments on existing Treasury securities on Aug. 15.