Advancing Our Knowledge of Hockey Through Statistical Analysis

Predicted Standings – 2/14/2007

It’s been a few weeks since I last posted my predicted final standings so I figured I should update them. In the west the playoff picture has cleared up a bit but in the east the playoff picture is as unclear as ever.

Eastern Conference Predicted Standings

Pos

Team

GP

Pts

Schedule Strength

Future GP

Future SchedStr

Pred Pts

Total Pts

1

Buffalo

57

80

0.473

25

0.467

35

115

2

New Jersey

56

74

0.460

25

0.439

34

108

3

Pittsburgh

55

67

0.458

26

0.473

30

97

4

Ottawa

57

67

0.481

24

0.464

29

96

5

Tampa Bay

58

66

0.466

24

0.480

26

92

6

Atlanta

59

67

0.467

22

0.477

24

91

7

Carolina

59

65

0.468

23

0.457

25

90

8

Montreal

58

64

0.484

23

0.463

26

90

9

NY Islanders

57

62

0.467

25

0.463

27

89

10

NY Rangers

56

61

0.468

26

0.458

28

89

11

Toronto

57

62

0.485

25

0.477

27

89

12

Boston

55

56

0.492

27

0.465

29

85

13

Florida

58

55

0.477

23

0.460

22

77

14

Washington

57

54

0.474

25

0.475

23

77

15

Philadelphia

56

38

0.477

26

0.485

17

55

Wow! Just 3 points separating 5th from 11th. Buffalo and New Jersey are all but guaranteed playoff spots while Pittsburgh and Ottawa are looking pretty safe so long as they can avoid and lengthy slumps. At the other end, Florida, Washington and Philadelphia can begin booking their tee times. But in the middle it is anyones guess who will get those final 4 playoff spots. Two weeks ago Montreal and Atlanta looked to be in pretty good shape but both of those teams have slumped significantly and now their playoff positions are in question while Toronto, Tampa and the Islanders have surged ahead to make things ultra interesting.

Western Conference Predicted Standings

Pos

Team

GP

Pts

Schedule Strength

Future GP

Future SchedStr

Pred Pts

TotalPts

1

Nashville

57

79

0.498

24

0.550

30

109

2

San Jose

55

73

0.513

25

0.512

33

106

3

Detroit

58

76

0.509

23

0.523

29

105

4

Anaheim

56

72

0.518

25

0.510

32

104

5

Dallas

56

70

0.524

25

0.506

32

102

6

Calgary

56

67

0.529

25

0.532

29

96

7

Vancouver

55

64

0.541

25

0.515

30

94

8

Minnesota

57

66

0.533

24

0.541

27

93

9

Edmonton

56

60

0.540

25

0.520

27

87

10

Colorado

55

58

0.538

26

0.540

27

85

11

St. Louis

57

53

0.536

24

0.535

22

75

12

Phoenix

57

52

0.527

25

0.562

21

73

13

Columbus

56

49

0.530

25

0.537

21

70

14

Chicago

55

49

0.522

25

0.554

20

69

15

Los Angeles

59

47

0.538

23

0.553

17

64

When I last posted the predicted standings Minnesota had a predicted 3 point lead on Edmonton and a 4 point lead on Colorado for the final playoff spot. Those leads have widened to 6 and 8 points. It is going to be real tough for the Oilers and Avalanche to earn a playoff spot now without one of the teams ahead of them slumping significantly as it would take a 16-8-1 record for Edmonton to finish with 93 points. Not impossible but highly unlikely considering they are only 4 points above .500 right now.

One comment

Being that both New Jersey and Pittsburgh are in the same division, you cannot call these “standings” because it would be absolutely impossible for them to finish 2 and 3 in the East, which in turn pushes everyone down, but a Southeast team. You either have to account for that, or you need to call these something else like “Final Points Prediction,” but you cannot accurately call these “standings”.

Search for:

Welcome

Welcome to HockeyAnalysis.com, where I strive to get a better understanding of the game of hockey through the use of statistical analysis. I hope you enjoy whatever time you spend here and maybe even learn a little. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to drop me an e-mail at david (at) hockeyanalysis.com.