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Tuesday, January 14

The January Thaw will be slipping away over the next few days & into the weekend with the return of more typical January weather. A reinforcing shot of colder air will move in first thing Wednesday with a little snow, mix & rain that will exit during the midday & afternoon. Temperatures will go from 35 to 40 during the morning to the low to mid 30s later in the day behind the front. A little black ice could very well develop to finish out our Wednesday.

Thursday looks quiet and seasonably chilly, & then a clipper like system will throw a little snow our way Thursday night into Friday with minor accumulations expected. Behind this clipper it will turn blustery & colder for the weekend with some snow showers & a few squalls Saturday & then a little general snow Saturday night & again Sunday from a couple of fast moving systems that will reinforce the cold air. Highs will be in the 20s over the weekend & possibly turn even colder than that early to mid next week. Stay tuned for updates through the weekend.

Seems to me that this about as real a return to winter as one can have. Maybe it's not the most compelling pattern but at least there are things to track. So before the obligatory whining continues full force again I ask this: would you rather see a pattern where temps remain locked above freezing for 2 weeks and we get nothing but cold soaking rain every couple of days? Would that be more "exciting" to you? I feel like some of you have the expectation that winter is supposed to feature a big storm every 5 to 10 days, which is about as unreasonable as it gets. Now feed this into your eyeballs: we've already had 3 separate snowfalls of more than 6 inches this season. Rochester averages 4-5 snowfalls of more than 6 inches per season according to Dr. Jeff Masters (for most of us it's closer to 4):

So based on that average we should only expect 1, maybe 2 more such snowfalls over the next couple of months. This is not a prediction of any sort and I would love for it to be more than that, but it seems this blog has a problem with high expectations and it leads to a lot of obnoxious complaining. Set your expectations lower (but not unreasonably so) and you'll have a much better time.

I agree with ANON 4:13 but we are only 8 inches above normal for the year now and with no real snow events in sight we me be at just normal for the year come next week. I do not remember 3 separate snowfalls of 6" or greater though. I know we have had 2 and that is mostly near the lake. Folks away from the lake have not seen nearly as much snow as we have this year. I do not think 48 inches is something to brag about but it is ok and with a lot of winter left I think we will easily see above 100" officially. I know for me I want the BIG storm. The one for the record books. I know for us they are few and far between.

"The one for the record books. I know for us they are few and far between."

Not just for us, for EVERYONE. There isn't a single place on Earth that sees record storms on a regular basis, not even the east coast (even though it might seem that way recently). That's why they end up in the books in the first place...because they're very infrequent and atypical. As for our 3 snowfalls of 6+ inches, I'll list them out along with their official airport totals (the latter two of these can be verified at the NWS Buffalo climate page under the Observed Weather tab, you'll just have to trust me on the first one):

Is there any chance that it was really -13 in Brockport NY this morning? That is what my car thermometer read at about 8:00. When I left my garage it read 17 as I drove to work it kept dropping and stopped at -13. YIKES!