WPS3908
Turkey's Evolving Trade Integration
into Pan-European Markets ·/
By
Bartlomiej Kaminski* and Francis Ng**
Summary: This is an empirical paper seeking to identify the mode of Turkey's integration into global
markets in general and pan-European markets in particular as revealed in its trade performance. The
analysis provides empirical support to the following observations. First, thanks to steady expansion of trade
in goods and services since the mid-1980s, Turkey has become highly integrated into the world economy.
Second, Turkey's export performance in 1996-2004 in EU markets bears strong similarities to the
aggregate performance of new EU members from Central Europe (EU-8). Similarities include dynamics,
similar factors responsible for the increased presence in EU markets, factor content and the role of
`producer-driven' network trade.
Turkey, together with Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Estonia and Poland,
stands as one of the top performers in `producer-driven' network trade indicating participation in a new
global division of labor based on production fragmentation.
The available evidence suggests an economic success story in the making. Export expansion owes
a lot to improved policy environment and domestic liberalization. It is rather telling that the recent
expansion has coincided with the implementation of most of the provisions of EU-Turkey CU Agreement,
the completion of the removal of tariffs on trade in industrial products among the pan-European parties to
the Pan European Agreement Cumulation of the Rules of Origin and improved macroeconomic stability
after the 2001 crisis.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3908, May 2006
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the
exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly,
even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should
be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely
those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors,
or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at
http://econ.worldbank.org.
·/Revised and updated version of a background report "Turkey's Surprising Mode of Trade Integration into
Pan-European Markets" prepared for Turkey: A Country Economic Memorandum: Promoting Sustained
Growth and Convergence with the European Union, ECA, World Bank, Washington, D.C. The authors are
grateful to Subidey Togan and Aristomene Varoudakis for their comments on an earlier draft of this paper.
* / Department of Government, University of Maryland, College Park. E-mail: bkaminski@gvpt.umd.edu
** / Development Research Group -Trade, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. E-mail: fng@worldbank.org
2
1. Introduction
The experience of countries that have successfully taken advantage of opportunities
offered by global markets suggests that at least three critical elements have to be in place:
macroeconomic stability, contestable and competitive domestic markets that are open to external
competition and well-functioning backbone services. Macroeconomic instabilities destroy
business activity. Contestable and competitive markets provide firms with access to cheap inputs
and capital equipment that are well endowed in research and development, and force inefficient
firms out of business. Backbone services (telecommunications, banking, insurance,
transportation, business services, etc.) together with customs, related border clearance regulatory
procedures, technical standards regulations and ports' efficiency shape the ease and speed with
which goods and services move across national borders and, therefore, are crucial to trade in
goods.
Historically, Turkey fails the macroeconomic test, as it has been "on a roller coaster of
booms and busts for decades" (Barysch 2005), with the last crisis taking place in 2001. GDP fell
7 percent and inflation soared to 70 percent. Macroeconomic stability appears now to be under
control, with inflation in the single-digit range and GDP strongly growing. As for the remaining
two ingredients, the Customs Union Agreement with the EU has contributed immensely to the
emergence of contestable domestic markets and the combination of measures supported by
multilateral financial institutions has contributed to improved efficiency in services sectors
(Hoekman and Subidey 2005).
Since all these measures are of relatively recent vintage, one would expect Turkey's
performance to be poor in terms of its capacity to take advantage of opportunities offered, in
particular, by policy-induced integration into the EU and pan-European markets for industrial
products. But, contrary to expectations, this paper, which analyzes Turkey's dynamics and
patterns of integration into global markets, provides empirical evidence that this has not been the
case. While indeed imports fluctuated following the time pattern of GDP boosts and busts,
exports have remained largely impervious to macroeconomic crises for the last two decades.
Despite occasional slow-downs, they have largely kept pace with the growth of world exports.
More surprisingly, however, they have impressively expanded since around 2000-01.Turkey's
share in world exports rose 60 percent from 0.4 percent in 2000 to 0.7 percent in 2004. Turkey's
share in EU external imports increased by the same amount. Only Romania, one of the top export
performers among Pan-European economies during that period, matched Turkey's export
performance in both EU and world markets. The share of EU-8 in world exports rose 30 percent
in 2000-04, that is, less than the respective shares of Turkey and Romania.
While the recent export expansion has been both surprising and impressive, its drivers
and consequently ensuing mode of integration into global markets are even more astonishing.
Turkey's export basket, although still dominated by unskilled labor intensive products, has been
moving quickly towards products characterized by a higher level of processing, medium to high
technology content and the use of skilled labor. The major force, albeit not the only one, behind
this shift has been the entry of Turkish-based firms into `producer-driven' networks--automotive
and information communication technology networks, which are capital- and skilled-labor-
intensive industries. In consequence, a number of Turkish firms have become part of a new
division of labor based on production fragmentation made possible by the combination of
information technology and economic liberalization.
Turkey is the only country among EU candidates whose firms appear to participate in
division of labor driven by production fragmentation and their scope of involvement is more
extensive than that of firms from some new EU members (EU-8). Together with six EU-8
economies (Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Estonia and Poland),
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Turkey--with the share of `producer-driven' networks in exports of manufactures, excluding
chemicals, exceeding 20 percent in 2003 and double-digit growth rates--has been dubbed in a
recent World Bank study (WB 2005) as one of the seven "High Performers" among European and
Central Asian countries. Turkey's share of 22.5 percent puts it on a par with Slovenia in
`producer-driven' network trade.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. The next Section discusses
implications of the "Turkish-EU connection" for contestability of domestic markets and
conditions faced by Turkish firms in access to foreign markets. Section 3 examines geographical
patterns and dynamics of Turkey's trade in goods and services in the context of EU-8 and other
EU candidate economies. Section 4 seeks to examine changes in the degree of processing,
technology content and factor intensities of Turkish trade with a special emphasis on trade with
the EU and other countries from the Pan-European free trade area for industrial products. Section
5 examines trade in `buyer-driven' chains, (textiles and clothing, footwear and furniture) and the
shift towards `producer-driven' networks (automotive and Information Communication
Technology networks). The last Section concludes.
2. Contestability of domestic markets and access to external markets
The pillar defining Turkey's trade policy is preferential relationship, or more precisely
the CU (Customs Union) Agreement with the European Union, with enormous implications for
both conditions in access of domestic producers to external markets as well as contestability of
domestic markets, that is, the extent to which local firms are exposed to competition from
imports. The CU Agreement, which went into force on 1 January 1996, has already resulted in
Turkey's adoption of the Community's Common Customs Tariff (CCT) for imports of industrial
products from the third countries. Turkey has also taken up the EU rules of origin and EU
customs procedures (customs valuations, customs declaration, release for free circulation and
duty-suspension arrangements). The Agreement has also triggered reforms of technical standards
regime and competition policy infrastructure.
The CU Agreement has contributed to a very significant increase in contestability of
domestic Turkish markets through infusing predictability, transparency and stability to trade
policy as well as by liberalizing market access, i.e., lowering or removal of both tariff and non-
tariff barrier, for both preferential and MFN suppliers. The extent of liberalization of tariff rates
has been very extensive. Consider that MFN applied tariff rates on tradable goods with non-
preferential partners had to be reduced from an average of 22 percent in 1994 to 6.9 percent in
2001, GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) beneficiaries from 22 percent to 2.7 percent, and
with the EU's FTA (Free Trade Agreements) partners from 22 percent to 1.34 percent and with
the EU from 10.2 percent to 1.34 percent (Togan 1997 and 2000).
Turkey's applied MFN tariff rates for industrial products, the same as those of the EU,
represent one of the lowest, if not the lowest, levels of MFN tariff protection among economies at
a similar level of economic development. Turkey's both weighted and simple average tariff rates
on industrial imports are several times lower than those in other candidate countries.
Tariff rates are not only low but they are also predictable and stable. Since they are tied to
EU tariffs as well as comprehensive EU commitments under the WTO agreements, they are
resistant to domestic pressures for tariff protection.
As far as non-tariff barriers are concerned, technical barriers to trade have significantly
declined with Turkey's gradual transition to the EU technical standards regime. Turkey has made
large strides to establish a modern, market based regime of technical regulations and standards.
The adoption of international and European standards as well as procedures for admitting goods
into Turkey not only increase contestability of domestic markets but also create conditions for
4
improved competitiveness of domestic firms in foreign markets.
The CU Agreement and participation in EU trade initiatives has dramatically improved
access for Turkish firms not to EU or EFTA markets but also to markets of countries participating
in EU Eastern Enlargement project. Turkish producers of industrial goods have had duty-free
access to EU markets since 1971, albeit with some exceptions that were removed by 1999.
Turkey has already had a FTA with EFTA signed on December 10, 1991, which opened EFTA
markets to Turkish industrial exports.
Major new benefits have come from the EU-driven initiative, directly related to EU
Eastern Enlargement, to establish Pan-European free trade area for industrial products linked
through a system of diagonal cumulation (WTO 1997). The objective of the Pan-European
Agreement on Cumulation of the Rules of Origin, which went into effect on January 1, 1997, was
to encourage Europe-wide industrial cooperation by diagonal cumulation that would allow
treating imports from parties of the agreement as local inputs. The Pan European Cumulation of
Origin (PCO) system has encouraged intra industry trade, exports and FDI inflows.1 The
Agreement has paved the way for establishment in 2002 of a single European trading bloc for
industrial products, encompassing the EU-15, EFTA, and ten Central European countries
(Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and
Slovenia). As a party to the Agreement, Turkey signed FTAs with Central European countries in
1997-1999 that eliminated all duties on industrial products by 1 January 2002. This new
arrangement allowing unfettered distribution of production capacities in the territory of each
signatory of the Pan-European Agreement, without worrying about meeting the rules of origin
requirements, has created a very attractive environment for trade.
As a result of these developments, Turkish producers of industrial goods have become
exposed to competition from imports and operate in one of the largest, if not the largest, free trade
areas in the world. Turkish producers of industrial goods are now protected, in terms of tariffs,
from external competition to exactly the same extent as the EU producers are. Moreover, they are
not protected by tariffs and have to face competition from duty-free imports of industrial goods
from world-class Pan-European firms. In return, industrial producers have duty-free market
access, unrestrained by the rules of origins and tariffs, to the European Economic Area (EU-25
and EFTA) and two candidate countries--Bulgaria and Romania. The latter two are
geographically close to Turkey. Together with the "Stabilization and Association" partners of the
EU from the Balkans (Turkey has either signed or negotiates FTAs), they hold promise to become
significant markets for Turkish products in the future. Last but not least, consumers and industrial
users of imports have access to cheaper industrial products.
3. Highlights of Turkey's trade performance: dynamics and geographical
reorientation
The dramatic change over the last decade in trading environment within which Turkish
consumers and producers operate raises questions about how they have adapted to it. What have
been the major characteristics of Turkey's overall trade performance? How does it compare to
other EU-candidates and EU-8 economies? What are its idiosyncratic features, if any? These are
the main questions addressed in this section.
1EU preferential rules of origin define the requirements for the local content of raw materials, components
and value added, including the minimum level of transformation necessary for a product to qualify as
originating and thus benefiting from preferential treatment in access to the EU market. Since 1997, a
system of European cumulation, based on a network of free trade agreements and protocols, has been
established among the EU, the EFTA countries, the Central and Eastern European countries and Turkey.
Since 2002, the system was extended to the Southern Mediterranean countries as signatories of Association
Agreements with the EU.
5
A. Trade in goods and services
Five general features of Turkey's long term trade performance since 1985 stand out.
First, except for contraction in 1999, the value of total exports of goods and services has been
steadily expanding at the average rate of growth (least square estimate) of 10 percent over 1986-
2004.
Second, imports were highly volatile over 1986-2004 and strongly correlated with GDP
growth indicating that exchange rate crises and sharply falling incomes in 1994, 1999 and 2001
have been responsible for contraction in imports (Figure 1). Bursts or implosions in GDP growth
rates in nominal terms accompanied similar changes in imports. The coefficient of correlation of
annual changes in imports of goods and services and GDP growth rates in 1985-2003 was 88
percent. The same coefficient for exports of goods and services and GDP was 35 percent.
Figure 1: Annual rates of growth in value of exports, imports and GDP in 1990-2004 (in percent)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4
198 198 198 198 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 200
-20
-30
Imports of goods and services GDP Exports of goods and services
Source: Derived from the World Bank's Development Indicators database.
Third, Turkey's integration and dependence on global markets for goods and service has
significantly increased over the last decade. Exports of goods and services as percent of GDP
(both in current prices) almost doubled from an average of 16 percent in 1985-90 to 30 percent in
2000-2004. Trade in goods and services in terms of the GDP strongly expanded in the 1990s. The
corresponding ratio of 60 percent were more than twice as high in 2000-03 as they were in 1990-
93 (27 percent) indicating rapid increase in reliance of Turkey's economy on external trade in
goods and services.
The level of achieved integration into global markets for goods and services is relatively
high by regional standards. Although respective values of two indicators expressed in terms of
GDP--trade and exports of goods and services--are lower than for EU-8, other EU candidates
and South East European (SEE) economies, the differences are not significant. They stem from
the size of economy, tourist attractiveness and the level of GDP. Both SEE-4 and EU-8
economies are much smaller, except Poland, and some of them, on top of being much smaller,
have also much higher GDP per capita. Both contribute to higher values of openness indicators.
Taking into account the size of the economy, Turkey compares favorably with the largest
economy among comparators--Poland. Exports of goods and services in percent of GDP are
slightly higher in Turkey than in Poland and total trade slightly smaller (Table 1).
6
Table 1: Turkey's trade in goods and services as percent of GDP in regional perspective in
1991-98 and 1999-2004 (in percent)
Trade in G&S as % of GDP Exports of G&S as % of GDP
Country/Group 1991-98 1999-04 1991-98 1999-04
Turkey 42.2 57.4 19.2 27.5
Bulgaria 95.0 114.3 47.4 53.3
Croatia 105.0 99.5 49.4 46.1
Romania 56.3 72.3 25.1 33.1
Memorandum:
SEE-4 (simple average) 75.4 76.6 24.2 27.0
EU-8 (simple average) 103.6 119.0 50.7 56.9
of which: Poland 49.2 55.4 24.2 25.2
SEE-4 includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Serbia and Montenegro; EU-8 Czech
Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
Source: Computations are based on World Bank WDI data base through SIMA and Turkey's Balance of
Payments statistics for 1999-2003.
Fourth, in 1985-2004 Turkey's trade in goods and services has been persistently in the
red except for three years--1988, 1994 and 2001 due to deficits in trade in goods. Revenues from
exports of goods and services amounted on average to 89 percent of expenditures on imported
goods and services in 1990-97 and 92 percent in 1998-2004 (Table 2). The surplus in 2001 affects
the average for the last period--excluding 2001 the ratio would be 87 percent. This has been
exclusively due to services, which have been a very large net foreign currency earner, with the
surplus reaching US$ 13.5 billion in the peak year of 1998 and 12.8 billion in 2004. Surpluses in
trade in services have significantly offset chronic deficits in trade of goods. Over 1998-2004,
cumulative surpluses in services amounted to 92 percent of cumulative balances in trade in goods.
Surplus in services covered 62 percent of a shortfall in goods trade in 2004.
Table 2: Developments in trade in goods and services in selected years (in billion of US dollars
and percent)
Least Square Growth (%)
1991 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1991-98 1999-04 1985-04
(in $ billion)
Exports of goods 13.7 32.1 32.1 30.7 28.8 30.7 34.4 40.1 51.2 66.9 14.1 16.8 10.2
Exports of services 8.4 13.4 19.9 23.9 16.9 20.4 16.1 14.8 19.1 24.0 14.4 4.2 10.3
Imports of goods 20.9 42.3 47.2 44.7 39.0 52.7 38.1 47.4 65.2 90.7 12.4 14.5 9.9
Imports of services 3.2 6.8 9.0 10.4 9.4 9.1 6.9 6.9 8.6 11.3 17.4 2.1 11.1
(in percent) Average Share
Service exports in 72 66 69 70 64 69 70 68 69 68 71 68 70
total trade
Services in total 38 30 38 44 37 40 32 27 27 26 36 30 32
exports
Service exports in 260 198 221 230 180 225 232 214 222 213 252 214 238
% of imports
Total exports in % 91 93 93 99 94 83 112 101 95 89 108 105 107
of imports
Source: Based on IMF Balance of Payments Statistics through World Bank WDI database.
Fifth, notwithstanding the continuing importance of exports of services as a source of
foreign currency earnings, the loss of momentum in their growth in 1998-2004 is rather
bewildering. While the value of their exports increased more than eight times between 1985 and
1998 and in terms of GDP doubled, exports of services stagnated in 1998-2004. Their share in
total exports fell from 44 percent in 1998 to around 27 percent in 2002-04 (Table 2). This was in
large part due to a very strong, double-digit growth of exports of goods.
To sum up, the level of integration of Turkey into global economy has significantly
expanded over the last two decades. It is high both in terms of trade in goods and services as well
7
as Turkey has been spending significantly more on imported goods and services than it has been
receiving in revenues from their exports exclusively due to chronic deficits in trade of goods. In
contrast to imports, exports have steadily grown since 1986 except for the contraction in 1999.
They have grown faster than the GDP, with their share doubling between 1986 and 2003.
Fluctuations of imports seemed to coincide with balance of payments crises and fluctuations in
GDP growth rates. Despite recent stagnation in their trade, services continue accounting for a
significant portion of total trade. The share of 29 percent in Turkey's exports is roughly the same
as in Bulgaria (30 percent), larger than in Romanian exports (15 percent), and much smaller than
in export receipts of Croatia (58 percent).
B. Trade in services: puzzling developments in 1998-2004
Developments in Turkish trade in services in 1998-2004 display bewildering features.
Although in line with global trends observed over the last two decades trade in services was
growing on average at a double-digit growth rate in 1985-98,2 the expansion came to a screeching
halt in 1999-2004. During this period, trade in commercial services (excluding government
services) was unusually volatile, characterized by huge swings, with exports and imports moving
in tandem. Furthermore, there was a significant change in the composition of this trade and,
except for revenue from tourism, export performance was poor.
Total trade turnover in services was falling each year except in 2000 in 1999-2002. It
took off in 2002-03 growing on average 24.2 percent. In spite of two years of double-digit growth
rates in 2003 and 2004, the value of services trade turnover was in 2004 only 2 percent higher
than in 1998. Both exports and imports were responsible for this performance. Imports fell each
year in 1999-2002 and displayed strong growth in 2003-04. Exports were volatile, although
beginning in 2000; they displayed similar dynamics as their imports (Table 3 and Figure 2).
But a recent rebound in both exports and imports of commercial services does not put the
issue of the 1998-2002 troughs to the dustbin of history. Leaving aside the fact that the data are in
current dollar values, trade turnover in services others than travel and transport dramatically
declined over 1998-2004. In 2004, its value was at 9 percent of its peak level in 1998 and 23
percent of the level in 2000, despite doubling in 2004 over 2003. In terms of GDP, trade in
services amounted on average to 12 percent in 2002-04 down from the average of 15 percent in
1998-2001.
While both receipts from sale of services and expenditures displayed striking volatility
over 1998-2004, exports in terms of imports--except in 1999--have remained remarkably stable
over this period, despite the falling surpluses in services balance excluding transport and travel.
Exports of these other services in terms of their imports fell from to 234 percent in 1998 to 135
percent in 2004 (see Table 3).
2The share of commercial services in world exports of goods and services increased from 15 percent to 20
percent over the last two decades. See Maurer and Chauvet 2002.
8
Table 3: Exports and imports of commercial services with and without transport and travel
services in 1998-2004 (in million of US dollars)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Exports of commercial services 23,526 16,590 20,112 15,884 14,722 18,928 23,788
Imports of commercial services 9,761 8,813 8,467 6,435 6,271 7,708 10,280
Exports in % of imports 241 188 238 247 235 246 231
Exports excluding travel and transportation 13,229 8,487 9,521 4,940 3,448 3,541 4,633
Imports excluding travel and transportation 5,642 5,241 4,291 2,676 2,457 2,888 3,425
Exports in % of imports 234 162 222 185 140 123 135
Source: Balance of payments statistics.
Figure 2: Change in exports and imports of commercial services (1998=100)
110
100 Exports of
commercial services
90
80
70
Imports of
60 commercial services
50
40
30 Exports of
20 commercial services
excluding travel and
10 transport
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Balance of payments statistics.
Because of the strong performance of tourism, the decline in trade turnover of other
services and the collapse in exports of other commercial services (excluding travel and transport)
had no impact on the ratio of exports to imports of commercial services. Annual changes in the
value of exports varied in the range between ­29 percent and +29 percent and in the value of
imports between ­24 percent and +33 percent. Moreover, they coincided in time--the value of
the correlation coefficient for annual changes in 1999-2004 is high at 81 percent. In consequence,
exports in terms of imports remained stable--the average ratio for the 1998-2004 period was
2.32, with a low value of the coefficient of variation of 0.09 and standard deviation of 0.20.
While undoubtedly earthquakes, war in Iraq and perceptions of instabilities in the Middle
East might have suppressed tourism in the region, tourism (travel services) recorded hefty growth
in current US dollars of 15.5 percent per year in 1998-2004. It was the only item that did not
experience contraction in exports in terms of value over this period. But its performance was not
sufficiently robust to offset the decline in other exports, as total receipts had a negative growth
rate in 1998-2004. Among other categories of services, the strongest performer was transport,
with the average annual, negative growth rate of (-) 1.5 percent in 1998-2004.
Stagnation in exports of services over 1999-2004 was the result of the collapse of receipts
from sales of all services sectors identified in balance of payments statistics except for tourism
and transport (Table 4). The aggregate receipts from other sectors stood in 2004 at 55 percent of
their level in 1999 and 35 percent of their level in 1998. The inclusion of transport does not
significantly alter the overall picture--revenues in 2004 were 37 percent below their 1999 level
and 52 percent below their level in 2000.
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Table 4: Composition of exports of services and their exports in terms of imports in 1998-2004
Memorandum: change in value
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Index, 2002 Index, 2004
. Receipts from services exports 2000=100 1999=100
Transport 15% 18% 19% 12% 14% 95 113
Travel 38% 51% 58% 70% 67% 111 305
Construction 5% 4% 6% 4% 3% 86 66
Other commercial services 28% 18% 7% 7% 7% 18 36
Insurance and financial services 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 60 90
Other services 13% 7% 9% 6% 9% 53 77
Exports in terms of imports
Transport services 120 141 145 81 75 79 206
Travel services 446 465 451 625 629 110 172
Other commercial services 376 246 94 98 109 73 137
Insurance and financial services 55 46 36 78 76 93 60
Other services 123 139 183 107 128 35 45
Source: IMF Balance of Payments statistics.
And a cursory examination of trade developments in various categories of services does
not alter the picture. In fact, it raises a lot of new questions but offers few, if any, answers, with
developments in some instances defying common wisdom. For instance, considering revealed
comparative advantage of Turkish construction companies, supported among others by press
information about construction bids won abroad (e.g., airports in Cairo and Moscow), a 34
percent lower level of their foreign activities in terms of value in 2004 as compared to 1999 is
difficult to explain. Similarly, the decline in both exports and imports of insurance and financial
services would be tough to explain in view of the restructuring of the financial sector and
burgeoning trade in goods in 2001-2004. In a similar vein, consider the developments in transport
services juxtaposed against trade in goods and the expansion in `producer-driven' network trade
(See Section 5). The value of total trade turnover in goods in 2004 more was more than twice
(2.16) as high as its value in 2001, while trade in transport services rose merely 56 percent or
slightly more than half of the increase in goods trade. Simultaneously, `producer-driven' network
trade, critically dependent on smooth functioning of logistic services blocs, has been the driver of
this expansion with its share in total trade turnover increasing from 15 percent in 2000 to 17
percent in 2003. It is hard to imagine that this two-way trade has not involved provision of
transport and other services paid or provided by non-resident providers.
While the relationship between growth in goods trade and transport services purchased
abroad or sold to foreign contractors is rarely linear, the gap between respective increases is
seldom that high. It is even more unusual when they move in opposite direction as trade in goods
and trade in transport services did in 1999-2003, with the ratio of the latter to the former falling
from 7.5 percent in 1999 to 6.8 percent in 2001 and 4.3 percent in 2003. The ratio slightly
rebounded to 4.9 percent in 2004.
Furthermore, the developments in Turkey's services trade in categories other than travel
and, to a lesser extent, transport, in 1999-2004 defy trends observed worldwide. We may safely
assume that other service categories lumped together cover, among others, trade in computer,
business and other services (see Table 3 above), which is used as a proxy for outsourcing (the
contracting of business functions to an outside suppliers). A dramatic decline in other than travel
and transport services trade from US$ 5.2 billion in 2000 to US$ 1.2 billion in 2004 indicates that
Turkish firms failed to attract offshore services. Countries that have attracted business services
are not only the English-speaking ones, although India and Ireland have been very successful. In
2003 Estonia, China and Morocco recorded the largest increase exports of computer and business
services--the value of these exports over a previous year increased 70 percent, 68 percent and 61
percent respectively.
Thus, the critical question is what happened to trade in services in other categories than
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travel and transport; although the latter's poor performance remains unanswered. It is not clear
what explains volatility and collapse in their trade. It remains unclear whether unusual patterns in
Turkish trade in services are simply a statistical mirage or they reflect deeper structural barriers to
this trade. Given its performance in trade in goods, one is tempted to blame the quality of
statistics rather than idiosyncrasies of Turkey's mode of integrating into global economy.
Whatever the answer might be, it needs to be found simply because services statistics provide
important inputs to economic policy making.
C. Trade in goods and services in comparative perspective: expanding aggregate trade openness
Looking solely at trade turnover per capita does not provide a good base for an
assessment of a country's involvement in world trade (Figure 3). Turkey's trade turnover per
capita in 2004 puts it close to the bottom of EU-8, SEE-3 and EU candidate economies. It is
higher than only trade turnover per capita of Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro and Albania. On
the other hand, however, Turkey's turnover is pretty close to Romania's trade turnover per capita.
But this is highly misleading, as Turkey's population is almost double that of the largest country
among the EU-8, Poland; more than triple of that of Romania (the second most populous
country); and 52 times larger than the least populous, Estonia. Larger population implies a larger
domestic economy less dependent on foreign trade.
Figure 3: Trade in goods per capita in Turkey and other `EU-related' European countries in
2004 (in US dollars)
18,000 16,766
16,000
14,000 13,009
12,000 11,48910,516 9,979
10,000
8,000 6,304 5,460 5,076
6,000 4,244
3,136
4,000 2,5692,240 2,220 1,861
2,000 898
0
Slovenia Republic y lic ia ia R a
SlovakRepub gro
ngar tonia via land nia
Lat rkey
Po lgaria ma a, FY
Hu Es Lithuan Croat Bu Ro Tu Albani
Czech cedoni
Ma Serbia & Montene
Source: Trade as reported to the UN COMTRADE database and population data from WDI.
In fact, Turkey ranks very high in terms of trade openness and integration into global
markets if variables determining a country's dependence on foreign trade are taken into account.
Its actual trade relative to GDP in 2003 exceeded the level generated by an empirical model
developed for 149 countries. The model regresses openness, defined as the share of goods in
GDP, on the country's population, distance to major markets and GDP per capita (World Bank
2005). Its results are theoretical or potential shares of goods exports and imports in the GDP. If
the potential (predicted) share is below its actual share, then a country `under-trades.' If the
reverse is the case, then a country's involvement in global trade is larger than its size, level of
economic development, as proxied by the GDP per capita, and distance to world's most important
markets would indicate.
Turkey like most of new Central European members of the EU (EU-8) appears to be
11
measurably over-trading by around one-third. Turkey's 2003 realization ratio of 1.31 indicates
that the actual ratio of trade to GDP (25 percent) was 31 percent over its ratio predicted by the
model. It compares very favorably with the level of openness of new Central European members
of the EU (EU-8), which had the average realization ratio of 1.35. Turkey's realization ratio was
roughly similar as Slovenia's (1.33) but higher than that for Bulgaria (0.94) and Poland (0.92),
both traded below their respective potential, Romania (1.02), Latvia (1.04), Lithuania (1.09) as
well as above the average for other Balkan countries (0.65). Each country of the latter as a group
traded well below its current potential as reflected by the estimated model.
Turkey's trade integration into global markets for goods has significantly expanded over
the last two decades. This was mainly the result of expanding exports in the second half of the
1980s and in the 2000s. Turkey's share in world imports remained relatively unchanged in 1990-
2003 at around 0.8 percent, although it displayed an upward trend in 2000-2004. Its share in
world exports, however, rose rather dramatically by 50 percent in 2000-2003. This was in marked
contrast to the developments in the 1990s when Turkey exports growth simply kept with the pace
of the growth of world exports. Turkey's share of 0.4 percent was relatively stable throughout the
1990s (Table 5).
Table 5: Turkey in world trade in regional perspective in 1993, 1996 and 2004
Change in percent (%)
1993 1996 2000 2004 1993-2004 2000-2004
Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports
Value in billion of US dollar
Turkey 15.3 29.4 23.1 42.5 27.8 54.5 62.9 97.3 310 232 127 79
EU-8 49.2 62.2 83.6 115.4 118.8 154.1 254.5 297.9 417 379 114 93
Bulgaria 2.3 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.8 6.4 9.4 14.2 304 216 97 123
Romania 4.9 6.5 7.6 10.0 10.4 13.1 23.5 32.6 380 399 126 150
Share in world (in %)
Turkey 0.41 0.77 0.44 0.79 0.43 0.83 0.69 1.03 68 33 59 24
EU-8 1.32 1.64 1.58 2.14 1.86 2.34 2.80 3.15 111 92 50 35
Bulgaria 0.06 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.15 65 27 38 55
Romania 0.13 0.17 0.14 0.18 0.16 0.20 0.26 0.34 96 100 59 74
Notes: EU-8 countries are the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic
and Slovenia.
Source: IMF DOT Statistics.
Turkey's export performance has been in line with that of EU-8 and Romania and well
above Bulgaria's performance. The latter's share in world exports in 2003 was slightly below in
1993, whereas that of Turkey was 52 percent higher. The difference between Turkey and EU-8
and Romania is relatively small considering that dynamics of geographic reorientation of trade
away from the former Soviet Union drove their trade in 1992-96 following the collapse of central
planning. While between 1990 and 1993, exports from Turkey were growing at roughly the same
pace as those from the EU-8, the situation subsequently changed. The ratio of EU-8 share in
world exports to that of Turkey increased from 3.2 in 1990 and 1993 to 4.3 in 2000 and then fell
to 4 in 2004 indicating Turkey's stronger export growth performance (based on IMF DOT
statistics).
Indeed, Turkey's share in world exports rose 59 percent from 0.4 percent in 2000 to 0.7
percent in 2004 while that of the EU-8 as a group rose 50 percent. Only Romania the top export
performer among Central European countries during that period--matched Turkey's record.
On the other hand, Turkey had the weakest performance among these countries in terms
of imports. Its share in world imports, like that in exports, did not budge in the 1990s. It increased
12
merely 24 percent in 2004 over 2000, which was by far the smallest increase among comparators.
Since export growth was so much stronger, with the export coverage of imports rising from 58
percent in 2000 to 74 percent in 2004, it would appear that import content of exports has declined
as domestically produced inputs replaced imports.
In spite of these developments, Turkey's aggregate trade openness (goods exports plus
imports to GDP) increased from an average of 32 percent in 1990-99 to 48 percent in 2000-04. It
was also well above the level indicated by Turkey's size, GDP per capita and distance from major
world's markets. From this perspective, Turkey has been as successful as Slovenia.
Exports of goods were a bright spot in Turkey's overall performance in 2000-04. The
export performance gap between EU-8 and Turkey, which significantly increased between 1993
and 2000, similarly considerably fell in 2000-03, although it remained higher than in 1990 and
1993. Turkey's export performance has been strongly reminiscent of that of Romania, a late
reformer among transition economies, whose exports dramatically picked up in the late 1990s and
early 2000s. Both countries registered a 50 percent increase in respective shares in world exports.
While, as discussed earlier, statistics on Turkey's performance in trade in services raise
doubts as to their quality, Turkey's overall position in terms of services trade per capita vis-à-vis
other EU associates and new members is similar to that in trade in goods. It is above the levels in
two former Yugoslav republics--Macedonia and Serbia and Montenegro--and Romania, which
swapped respective positions in the ranking with Albania (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Trade in services per capita in Turkey and other `EU related' countries in 2004 (in US
dollars)
4,000 3,383
3,500 3,059 2,936
3,000
2,500 2,007
2,000 1,658 1,454 1,286
1,500 1,178 948
1,000 677 620 492 422 352 343
500
0
EstoniaSlovenia CroatiaHu
ngary publicLatvia land rkeynia, FYRntenegro Ro
mania
echRe Po AlbaniaTu
Slovak
public Re LithuaniaBulgaria
Cz Macedorbia&Mo
Se
Source: IMF Balance of Payments database.
Trade in services plays, however, much more important role in Turkey's trade than per
capita statistics would indicate. The share of services in total trade was 18 percent in 2004, which
is well above this share in trade of most other "EU-related' European economies. Albania (41%),
Croatia (35%), Estonia (25%) and Latvia (20%) had a higher share of services in total trade.
D. Reorientation of foreign trade away from Middle East towards Pan-European markets
A very significant reorientation of Turkey's foreign trade towards the EU did not occur
after entry into force of the EU-Turkey Customs Union Agreement on 1 January 1996 but much
earlier. In fact, 1996 marked historically the highest share of the EU-15 in Turkey's total trade
turnover. The striking feature of Turkey's dynamics in geographical pattern of foreign trade has
been the stability in the share of the EU-25 in total trade turnover since 1996. Interestingly, the
13
disruption in the earlier observed trend of the expanding trade with the EU-15, with its share
increasing from 40 percent in 1985 to 50 percent in 1995, coincided with the entry into force of
the Customs Union Agreement. Subsequently, the share remained at around 50 percent in 1996-
2000, fell to 47 percent in 2001 and stabilized at 48 percent in 2002-03 (Table 6).
Table 6: Direction and dynamics of Turkey's trade in 1985, 1995 and 2001-2004 (in million of
US dollars and percent)
Exports ($ million) 2000 2004 . Export Share (%)
Index index
Partner 1985 1995 2002 2003 2004 1995=100 2000=100 1985 1995 2002 2003 2004
Pan-Euro: of which 3,693 12,695 20,886 28,255 37,694 127 234 46.4 58.8 58.4 59.8 59.7
EU(15) 3,398 11,077 18,331 24,488 32,575 130 226 42.7 51.3 51.3 51.8 51.6
EU-10 107 840 1,210 1,734 2,332 97 285 1.4 3.9 3.4 3.7 3.7
EU(25) 3,506 11,917 19,541 26,222 34,907 128 229 44.1 55.2 54.6 55.5 55.3
EFTA(3) 133 293 406 538 658 110 204 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0
Bulgaria 8 183 378 622 894 138 355 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4
Romania 47 302 560 873 1,235 108 380 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
ROW: of which 4,265 8,904 14,876 18,998 25,426 127 224 53.6 41.2 41.6 40.2 40.3
SEE(5) 33 166 386 570 740 191 233 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2
NAFTA(3) 527 1,616 3,654 4,016 5,343 203 163 6.6 7.5 10.2 8.5 8.5
Russia 0 1,232 1,168 1,368 1,859 52 291 .. 5.7 3.3 2.9 2.9
East Asia 44 340 541 955 758 59 380 0.5 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.2
MENA 3,315 3,019 4,298 6,567 9,512 107 295 41.7 14.0 12.0 13.9 15.1
World 7,958 21,599 35,762 47,253 63,121 127 230 100 100 100 100 100
Imports ($ million) Import Share (%)
Pan-Euro: of which 4,706 18,931 28,148 38,570 52,045 156 176 41.5 53.0 54.9 55.6 53.4
EU(15) 4,228 16,862 23,289 31,696 42,359 157 160 37.3 47.2 45.4 45.7 43.4
EU-10 111 407 1,214 1,833 3,116 191 401 1.0 1.1 2.4 2.6 3.2
EU(25) 4,339 17,269 24,502 33,529 45,475 158 167 38.3 48.4 47.8 48.4 46.6
EFTA(3) 205 892 2,483 3,396 3,911 129 340 1.8 2.5 4.8 4.9 4.0
Bulgaria 99 402 507 689 959 115 207 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
Romania 64 368 657 956 1,700 183 253 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.7
ROW: of which 6,634 16,777 23,122 30,770 45,495 147 185 58.5 47.0 45.1 44.4 46.6
SEE(5) 114 61 46 87 202 153 216 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
NAFTA(3) 1,322 4,101 3,434 3,841 5,234 102 125 11.7 11.5 6.7 5.5 5.4
Russia 0 2,082 3,863 5,451 9,033 186 233 .. 5.8 7.5 7.9 9.3
East Asia 160 1,023 2,218 3,865 6,451 205 307 1.4 2.9 4.3 5.6 6.6
MENA 3,669 3,830 5,065 6,577 8,373 140 156 32.4 10.7 9.9 9.5 8.6
World 11,341 35,707 51,270 69,340 97,540 152 180 100 100 100 100 100
Notes: EU-10 includes new members of the EU as of May 1, 2004 (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Malta, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia); SEE-5 includes Albania, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia and Serbia and Montenegro: NAFTA-3 includes Canada, Mexico and the
U.S.;MENA refers to Middle-East and North Africa and EFTA-3 include Iceland, Norway and Switzerland.
Source: Derived from UN COMTRADE database as reported by Turkey.
A dramatic fall in the importance of Middle East and North Africa in Turkey's trade
turnover accompanied reorientation of trade towards the EU-15 in 1985-1990. While Middle East
and North African countries accounted for 36 percent of total trade turnover in 1985, this share
fell to 17 percent in 1990. Subsequently, trade turnover with this region has kept pace with
Turkey's total trade, with its share remaining at 11-12 percent.3 Had the share of Middle East and
North Africa remained at its 1985 level, the share of the EU-15 would have remained unchanged
3MENA countries took 74 percent of Turkish exports to ROW in 1985 and only 31 percent in 1995-2003.
Imports from MENA accounted for 52 percent in 1985. By 1995 they fell to 21 percent and 18 percent of
ROW imports in 2003.
14
at around 40 percent in 1985-2004 and trade with MENA would have amounted to US$ 42 billion
rather than US$ 18 billion in 2004, despite its significant increase in 2004. The aggregate value of
exports to this region increased 53 percent in 2004 as compared with the increase of total exports
amounting to 34 percent.
The inclusion of other Pan-European partners changes the overall picture, as their share
in Turkey's trade expanded until 2002 growing from 4 percent in 1985 to 9 percent of total trade
in 2002 and 2003. This drove up the share of Pan-European countries in Turkish trade from 55
percent in 1995 to 57 percent in 2003. Their aggregate share in exports increased from 59 percent
in 1995 to 60 percent in 2003 and in imports from 53 percent to 56 percent in respective years
(Table 6 above).
These comments notwithstanding, Turkey's integration into Pan-European markets
appears to be higher and deeper than the respective shares alone would suggest. High levels of
intra-industry and intra-product trade (see Sections 3 and 4) tie together production facilities
across Pan-European borders. Furthermore, despite sluggish import demand in three Turkey's
major trading partners in the EU--Germany, Italy and France--taking together 30 percent of its
exports, Turkish exports experienced impressive growth rates and Pan-European markets have
driven this growth. The expansion in exports to Bulgaria and Romania is particularly noteworthy.
E. Dynamics and factors accountable for growth of EU-destined exports in regional perspective
Turkey's export performance in EU-markets has been impressive even when cast against
other EU Eastern Enlargement countries--EU-8 and EU candidate countries. Turkey continued
its preferential commercial relations with the EU in the 1990s that began with the 1963 Ankara
Agreement, whereas EU-8 together with Bulgaria and Romania had an extra, one-time potential
for trade expansion following the collapse of central planning in 1989-90. Since central planning
collapsed about a decade after the process of trade liberalization began in Turkey and Central
European countries obtained duty-free access to EU industrial markets around two decades later
than Turkey, one-time redirection combined with catch-up dynamics had driven their EU-oriented
exports in the 1990s. These factors were not present in Turkish performance, as trade with the EU
was not suppressed by market access or political considerations related to the now-defunct
Council for Mutual Economic Assistance regional arrangements. Hence, no similarly
extraordinary factors shaped Turkish trade with the EU in the 1990s.
The developments in the 1990s fully corroborated these expectations, albeit with two
caveats. First, transition economies that swiftly implemented first-generation reforms (price,
foreign trade and exchange rate liberalization) indeed experienced massive growth of EU-
oriented exports already in the early 1990s. Those that delayed them or aborted them either
entered the path of strong growth in the late 1990s (Romania) or only recently (Bulgaria), albeit
the latter at less impressive growth rates. Second, the gap between Turkey's performance and that
of EU-8 economies was smaller than one might anticipate and was closed over the last five years.
Furthermore, Turkey consistently outperformed two other EU candidate countries--Bulgaria and
Croatia--in 1993-2004.
The data, both in current values and in terms of shares in EU external imports, provide
empirical support to these observations. Since changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar vis-
à-vis Euro may distort dynamics of exports even examined in a comparative perspective, Table 7
and Figure 5 present the evolution of shares of Turkey in EU external imports against those of its
regional partners--EU-8, Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania. First, leaving aside Croatia, other
groups or countries--including both Bulgaria and Romania--registered much larger increase in
their respective shares in EU external imports than Turkey in 1993-96. Turkey's share was 14
percent larger at the end of this period, Bulgaria's 29 percent and EU-8 63 percent. But two years
later in 1998, Turkey's share was 13 percent over its 1996-level, Bulgaria's also 13 percent,
15
Romania's 19 percent and EU-8 16 percent. Overall, between 1993-99 Turkish exports outpaced
growth in EU-25 external demand to the tune of 5 percent, which was above the performance of
Bulgaria (4 percent) and Croatia (-2 percent), but below that of Romania (10 percent) or EU-8 (12
percent).
Table 7: EU-25 external imports from EU candidate states in 1996-2004 and their shares in EU-
25 external imports (in percent and billion of US dollars)
EU25 Imports ($ billion) 1996 2004 Least Sq.
Index index Growth (%)
Partner 1993 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1993= 1996= 1993 2000-
100 100 -99 04
Turkey 8.4 12.9 13.8 15.5 16.6 16.8 19.1 22.3 29.9 35.4 153 274 11.0 19.4
Bulgaria 1.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.5 4.6 5.4 178 233 10.1 14.9
Croatia 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.5 4.1 107 137 -2.9 13.1
Romania 2.2 4.9 5.5 6.3 6.7 7.7 9.2 10.5 13.9 16.1 221 325 16.8 18.9
Memo:
EU-8 34.5 66.5 71.1 82.6 86.2 95.4 105.1 114.6 154.0 172.9 193 260 14.3 15.7
Share in EU25 External Imports (%)
Turkey 1.53 1.73 1.79 1.97 2.02 1.80 2.08 2.44 2.70 2.88 113 166 4.6 11.9
Bulgaria 0.24 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.31 0.32 0.36 0.38 0.42 0.44 131 141 3.7 7.5
Croatia 0.51 0.40 0.34 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.34 79 83 -9.4 5.7
Romania 0.41 0.66 0.71 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.99 1.15 1.26 1.31 163 197 10.3 11.5
Memo:
EU-8 6.28 8.92 9.19 10.49 10.49 10.24 11.42 12.53 13.88 14.07 142 158 7.8 8.3
Source: Based on EU as reporter from UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Figure 5: Change in shares in EU external imports in 1992-2004 (1996=100)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Turkey Bulgaria EU-8 Croatia Romania
Source: As in Table 7.
Second, once extraordinary factors accountable for the trade performance of former
Centrally Planned economies waned away, Turkey emerged in 2000-04 as one of the top export
performers even taking as the base Turkey's share in EU external imports in 1999 (2.03 percent)
instead of a depressed one in 2000. This would lower its growth rate of the share from 14 percent
to still respectable 9 percent per year as compared with 10 percent for EU-8.
Hence, the time profile of changes in Turkey's share in EU import demand in 1996-2004
does not set it apart from other EU Eastern Enlargement countries except for two outliers--
16
Bulgaria and Romania. The former stands out because of a weaker performance, whereas the
latter due to a stronger performance throughout the whole period. They experienced slow down in
1998-99 (Turkey also a contraction in 2000) and subsequently impressive expansion (Figure 5).
The increase in Turkey's share by 10 percent in 2003 over 2002 was larger than for the EU-8 and
Romania--both 9 percent.
Similarities between the aggregate performance of the EU-8, which in terms of
population roughly equals Turkey's, and Turkey go beyond the time profile over 1996-2003. The
factors accountable for the improvement in their export performance in EU markets have been
also similar. One may distinguish three factors accountable for change in exports--import
demand, competitiveness and diversification. When a country merely maintains its share in
imports, the increase in exports is to the growth in import demand. When it increases more than
import demand, then these extra exports can be attributable to increased competitiveness. When
the increase comes from new exports, it is due to the diversification effect. Table 8 presents the
results of calculations of factors of growth in EU-15 oriented exports of EU Eastern Enlargement
countries in 2000-04 using four-digit SITC data for EU imports. For each four-digit SITC sector,
the shares of regional suppliers in EU imports are calculated for 2000 and 2004. The growth in
import demand was accountable for 52 percent of the increase in Turkish exports between 2000
and 2004, the growth in competitiveness for 48 percent of the increase, and the growth in
diversification for 1 percent of the increase in exports. Decomposed factors accountable for the
expansion of Turkey's EU-15-oriented exports are very similar to those explaining the growth in
exports from the EU-8 economies. Except for Croatia, other countries have capitalized not only
on the EU-15 demand for exports due to income growth but also succeeded in exploiting cost-
effective advantages.
Table 8: Sources of growth in EU-oriented exports in regional perspective in 2000-04
Exports ($ million) Source of Change (%) Share in Total Exports
Change in Competi- Diversif- (%) (%)
Exporter 2000 2004 2000-04 Demand tiveness ication 2000 2004
Bulgaria 2,834 5,066 2,232 38 58 4 1.8 1.8
Croatia 1,910 3,315 1,405 66 7 27 1.2 1.2
Romania 7,134 15,138 8,004 37 62 2 4.5 5.3
Turkey 16,220 33,353 17,133 52 48 1 10.3 11.6
EU-8 80,521 145,765 65,243 53 46 1 51.3 50.7
Total above 108,619 202,636 94,017 51 47 2 69.1 70.5
Memo:
All ECA Countries 157,082 287,317 130,235 44 58 -2 100.0 100.0
Note: In addition to EU Eastern Enlargement countries, ECA includes South Eastern Europe (Albania,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro) and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent
States) economies (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Russia
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan).
Source: Computations based on UN COMTRADE Statistics with the EU as a reporter.
Turkey's export performance in EU markets also stands out against other European and
Central Asian countries. While the share of Bulgaria and Croatia in total EU-oriented exports
from the European and Central Asian region remained stable, those of Romania, Turkey and EU-
8 significantly increased demonstrating superior performance vis-à-vis CIS economies. Turkey's
share grew from 10 percent to 12 percent in 2000-04. Overall, the share of EU Eastern
Enlargement economies increased from 69.3 percent in 2000 to 70.5 percent in 2004.
F. Concluding observations
The analysis provides empirical support to the following observations. First, thanks to
steady expansion of trade in goods and services since the mid-1980s, Turkey has become highly
17
integrated into the world economy. While exports have steadily expanded demonstrating relative
insensitiveness to balance of payments crises, imports have been volatile, with their annual
changes highly correlated with GDP growth rates. Relative to its geographical location, i.e.,
distance from major world markets, the level of GDP per capita and its size, Turkey `overtrades'
with the world. Its actual trade is higher than predicted by the regression model and its magnitude
in line with `over-trading' of the EU-8 taken as aggregate.
Second, although Turkey's geographical concentration of trade has increased since the
mid-1980s, its pattern remains relatively diversified with significant shares of Middle East and
North African countries and NAFTA. The increase in concentration was the result of expanding
trade with the EU and stagnation in Middle East and North African trade, which took place in
1985-90. The share of the EU-15 increased from 40 percent in 1985 to 48 percent in 1990.
Subsequently, it remained stable at around 47-50 percent of Turkey's total trade turnover. So did
it in trade with MENA at around 12 percent of the total, after its share fell from 36 percent to 17
percent over the same period of time.
Third, Turkey's export performance in 1996-2004 in EU markets bears strong similarities
to aggregate performance of EU-8 but not to other EU candidate countries. It was much better
than that of Bulgaria or Croatia but not as dynamic as that of Romania. While because of earlier
`trade repressive' membership in the CMEA or the former Soviet Union, trade reorientation and
the dynamics of catching up with levels determined by economic rather than political
considerations were responsible for the surge in EU-destined exports of EU-8 in 1993-96, the
differences in respective performance disappeared in 1997-2004 with Turkish exports displaying
strong growth in 2001-03. Furthermore, similar factors drove their export expansion with the
improved competitiveness in EU markets accounting for almost half of the increase in exports.
4. Changing patterns of specialization: degree of processing, technological level
and factor intensities
Industrial products have driven export expansion in 1996-2003. Their share in total
exports rose from 80 percent in 1995-96 to 85 percent in 2000-01 and 88 percent in 2003-03. This
share in Turkish exports to Pan-European free trade area for industrial products, which took 61
percent of Turkish industrial exports, was 90 percent in 2003 up from 81 percent in 1995.
Industrial products are a highly heterogeneous group, which raises several questions. What
products drove the expansion? What do the changes in exports depending on the degree of
processing embodied in exported products tell us about Turkey's industrial capacities? What is
the level of technology embodied in imported and exported products? What characteristics do
new star performers embody in terms of technology and the degree of processing?
A. Degree of processing in Turkey's trade
The composition of trade in terms of end-use product categories sheds light on changes in
the domestic demand for various goods depending on the extent of their processing as well as a
country's capacity to produce more complex products. Both exports and imports may move in
similar directions as the capacity to produce more processed goods may require imports of higher
processed components. Overall, however, industrial development is associated with the increase
in net exports, which can be expressed as percent of their imports, of products representing higher
level of processing. A taxonomy of end-use products allows distinguishing between traditional
production inputs (foods and feeds together with industrial raw materials) and processed
manufactures (machinery together with automobiles and parts). The increase in the weight of the
latter in total imports and exports combined with the increase in coverage of these imports by
their exports points to the growing level of industrial processing carried out in a country.
Data tabulated in Table 9 indicate a significant increase in the level of processing
18
embodied in trade. Consider first that the shares of traditional inputs in Turkey's exports fell from
30 percent in 1990 to 24 percent in 1995, and 13 percent in 2002-04. There was a similar trend in
imports, with their share declining from 18 percent in 1995 to 13 percent in 2000-04. While
Turkey has been as a rule close to being a net exporter of foods and feeds, industrial materials
export coverage of their imports has been falling.
Table 9: Exports and net exports of end-use product categories to Pan-European area and ROW
in 1995, 2000-04 (in million of US dollars and percent)
Export ($ million) Export Share (%) LS Growth
Pan-Euro Area 1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000-04 (%)
Agricultural Food & Feeds 2,365 1,940 2,087 2,673 3,469 18.6 12.0 11.8 10.0 9.5 9.2 13.9
Industrial Raw Materials 359 477 443 591 837 2.8 3.0 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 14.2
Machinery, excl. Auto 999 2,385 3,462 4,912 6,624 7.9 14.8 14.7 16.6 17.4 17.6 26.6
Automobiles & Parts 444 1,013 2,290 3,711 6,427 3.5 6.3 9.5 11.0 13.1 17.0 44.7
Textiles & Clothing 6,284 7,089 8,412 10,621 12,187 49.5 43.9 40.9 40.3 37.6 32.3 14.5
Other Consumer Goods 1,993 3,065 3,866 5,419 7,715 15.7 19.0 19.3 18.5 19.2 20.5 22.9
Fuels 250 173 325 326 436 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 20.9
All Goods 12,695 16,141 20,886 28,255 37,694 100 100 100 100 100 100 21.4
ROW
Agricultural Food & Feeds 2,173 1,887 1,873 2,567 3,009 24.4 16.6 16.7 12.6 13.5 11.8 10.8
Industrial Raw Materials 355 347 348 439 628 4.0 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.5 14.1
Machinery, excl. Auto 615 1,709 1,879 2,472 3,465 6.9 15.1 15.9 12.6 13.0 13.6 15.7
Automobiles & Parts 282 533 979 1,419 1,726 3.2 4.7 4.5 6.6 7.5 6.8 32.1
Textiles & Clothing 2,360 3,116 3,889 4,605 5,436 26.5 27.5 24.2 26.1 24.2 21.4 14.7
Other Consumer Goods 3,078 3,629 5,547 6,838 10,164 34.6 32.0 34.7 37.3 36.0 40.0 24.6
Fuels 40 124 362 659 999 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.4 3.5 3.9 54.1
All Goods 8,904 11,344 14,876 18,998 25,426 100 100 100 100 100 100 19.7
Memo Items: LS Growth
Pan-Euro Area Exports in percent of Imports Total Exports in percent of Imports All Exports
Agricultural Food & Feeds 139 148 147 153 172 102 93 142 101 101 108 12.4
Industrial Raw Materials 29 58 43 35 39 34 38 52 32 28 25 14.1
Machinery, excl. Auto 15 24 37 44 44 16 27 44 40 46 43 22.4
Automobiles & Parts 39 22 115 80 76 48 29 127 142 96 81 41.2
Textiles & Clothing 927 584 584 633 642 459 423 485 389 388 361 14.5
Other Consumer Goods 27 29 32 32 36 46 43 60 55 52 55 23.8
Fuels 92 17 48 34 41 6 3 5 8 8 10 39.4
All Goods 67 55 74 73 72 60 51 76 70 68 65 20.7
ROW Pan-Euro Shares in World Exports All Imports
Agricultural Food & Feeds 78 68 74 74 76 52 51 49 53 51 54 12.9
Industrial Raw Materials 41 26 24 22 17 50 58 56 56 57 57 28.7
Machinery, excl. Auto 18 35 49 50 40 62 58 56 65 67 66 13.1
Automobiles & Parts 74 62 325 199 101 61 66 74 70 72 79 23.2
Textiles & Clothing 196 260 225 205 182 73 69 70 68 70 69 19.9
Other Consumer Goods 82 71 112 102 91 39 46 43 41 44 43 20.3
Fuels 0.9 1.5 4.3 6.2 7.4 86 58 57 47 33 30 11.6
All Goods 53 46 64 62 56 59 59 58 58 60 60 16.9
Note: End-Use categories are defined as Agricultural Food & Feeds (SITC 0+1+2+4-27-28), Industrial Raw
Materials (SITC 27+28+68), Machinery, excluding auto (SITC 7-78), Automobiles & Parts (SITC 78), Textiles
& Clothing (SITC 5+84), other Consumer Goods (SITC 5+6+8+9-65-68-84), Fuels (SITC 3) and All Goods
(SITC 0 to 9).
Source: Based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Second, exports of capital and transportation equipment and automobile parts have
dramatically expanded while their imports have kept up with the overall growth of total imports.
Their aggregate share in total exports increased from 7 percent in 1990 to 11 percent in 1995, 21
percent in 2000 and 29 percent in 2004. Exports of machinery had a least square growth rate of
27 percent and of automobiles and parts of 45 percent in 2000-04. Turkey was a net exporter of
automobiles and parts in 2001 and 2002 mainly due to the fall in import demand due to a strong
depreciation of Turkish lira following the balance of payments crisis in 2001. The value of
imports of automobiles and parts fell 54 percent in 2001 and was still 42 percent below its 2000
19
level in 2002. In 2003, the value of imports exceeded by 21 percent the 2000 level mainly due to
the surge in imports of trucks and tractors. But it rose 89 percent in 2004, with the value of
exports also increasing 39 percent. The crisis also affected imports of automobile parts4. Since
this had no impact on exports automobiles and parts, which boomed in 2001-04, the contraction
was short-termed mainly due to the falling domestic demand triggered by the crisis in 2001.
Third, the expansion in exports of more processed goods took place in highly demanding
and competitive Pan-European markets. Traditional industrial inputs accounted for a larger share
in ROW-oriented exports (14 percent) than in pan-European exports (11 percent) in 2004. On the
other hand, the aggregate share of machinery and automobiles and parts in Pan-European-
destined exports of 35 percent up from 30 percent a year earlier was below that of 21 percent up
from 19 percent in 2003 in ROW exports. The difference is almost exclusively due to much larger
Pan-European-oriented exports of automobiles and parts indicating Turkey's participation in EU-
centered automotive networks. Pan-European countries took 79 percent of Turkey's exports of
automobiles and parts and 66 percent of exports of machinery--these compare favorably with the
share of Pan-European area of 60 percent in total Turkish exports.
The compositions of imports by end-use from Pan-European countries and ROW
indicates Turkey's growing integration into Pan-European markets based on trade in more
processed industrial products. Imports from the Pan-European free trade area for industrial
products are much more processed, with fuels, agricultural foods and feeds and industrial raw
materials accounting for 10 percent. In contrast, this share in Turkey's imports from ROW is
more than four times as large.5 Moreover, the gap appears to be growing. But ROW suppliers
seem to have retained their competitive edge in Turkey's markets for machinery and capital
equipment excluding transportation.6
The falling share of machinery in Turkey's total imports suggests weaker investment
activity than in the past, which, in turn, may undermine future export growth. The value of their
imports was in 2003 merely eight percent above the level in 2000. But they strongly rebounded in
2004 increasing 46 percent, and stood at 158 of their 2000 level. Furthermore, the share of
machinery increased in 2004 and accounted on average for one-fourth of total imports in 2000-
04--still a respectable level by international standards.7
B. `Technology content' of Turkey's trade with the EU and competitiveness
In order to assess the `technology content' of Turkey's trade with the EU, we use a
simple taxonomy developed by Landesman and Stehrer (2003). It distinguishes among three
categories of activities and assign to each of them products identified in trade statistics in terms of
two-digit Standard International Trade Classification (SITC. Rev. 3). These categories are low
technology and unskilled labor intensive activities, medium to high technology activities and
resource intensive activities. The latter cover either extraction of mineral resources or
unprocessed agricultural products. Low and labor intensive group includes textiles and clothing,
wood products, most chemicals, tires, etc. The medium to high technology group includes
machinery and equipment, transport equipment, electrical and optical equipment,
pharmaceuticals, etc.
4 The contraction in imports of parts was smaller--they fell 41 percent in 2001; in 2002, they were 26
percent below the 2000 level and 20 percent above in 2003.
5 Between 1990 and 2003 it varied between 43 percent in 2003 and 48 percent in 1990.
6Their share in Turkey's imports of these products has been stable at around 30 percent since 1985.
7 This is roughly line with the share of machinery in imports of EU-8 economies but above that for
Bulgaria, which was around 20 percent on average in 200-03.
20
As can be readily seen from Table 10, which presents Turkey's exports and imports in
terms of technological and resource intensity, the most visible change in Turkey's EU-oriented
exports has been a dramatic shift towards medium and high technology products. The value of
their exports increased eight-fold between 1995 and 2004 growing at an average rate of 21.5
percent over 1995-2003. The average rate of growth for low tech and unskilled labor intensive
products was 5.4 percent and that for resource intensive products amounted to 9.9 percent.. If
these growth rates continue over 2004-05, the value of exports of medium and high technology
products will exceed that of low tech and labor intensive products by the end of 2005. The share
of medium to high tech products rose from 13 percent in 1995 to 25 percent in 2000 and 37
percent in 2004. The growth in exports was not solely the result of expanding EU import demand
for these products but also of stronger competitiveness of Turkish suppliers. They increased their
share in EU external imports of these products from 0.6 percent in 1995 to 0.9 percent in 2000,
2.1 percent in 2003 and to 2.5 percent in 2004.
Table 10:"Technology content" of trade with EU-25 and patterns of specialization in 1996,
2000-2004 (in million of US dollars and percent)
Index 2004
Factor Input 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1995=100 2000=100
Turkey's Exports to EU25 ($ million)
Low tech products & labor intensive 8,459 9,552 10,361 11,630 14,805 16,422 194 172
Medium to high tech products 1,623 4,112 5,325 7,041 10,297 13,157 810 320
Resource intensive products 2,078 3,087 3,398 3,579 4,729 5,708 275 185
Turkey's Export Share (%)
Low tech products & labor intensive 69.6 57.0 54.3 52.3 49.6 46.5 67 82
Medium to high tech products 13.3 24.5 27.9 31.6 34.5 37.3 279 152
Resource intensive products 17.1 18.4 17.8 16.1 15.9 16.2 95 88
Exports in percent of Imports (%)
Low tech products & labor intensive 402 430 546 479 510 507 126 118
Medium to high tech products 20 26 59 62 60 56 280 217
Resource intensive products 36 38 53 43 41 40 111 105
Share in EU25 External Imports (%)
Low tech products & labor intensive 5.9 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.3 142 129
Medium to high tech products 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 453 262
Resource intensive products 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 151 132
Export Specialization Index
Low tech products & labor intensive 3.4 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 84 80
Medium to high tech products 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 268 162
Resource intensive products 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 89 82
Source: Computations based on EU25 data from UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Yet, low technology and unskilled labor intensive products still remain Turkey's major
specialization in EU markets. Turkey has a very strong revealed export specialization in EU
markets for these products. The value of Export Specialization Index (ESI--ratio of their share in
Turkish EU-oriented exports to their share in EU total external imports) is well below unity,8
albeit it has been declining. Turkish suppliers have a significant and growing presence in these
markets. Turkish exports accounted for 8 percent of EU total imports of low tech and unskilled
labor intensive products in 2003. Furthermore, Turkish exporters have been consistently
outperforming other competitors, as their share in EU external imports of these products has been
8The export specialization index (ESij) for a product j of country i, is specified here as follows: ESij =
(xij/Xi) /(mj/M), where: xij is country i's exports of product j to the EU; Xi = j xij is country i's total
exports to the EU; Mj = j xij is EU's total `external' imports of a product j; M = i j xij is EU's total
external imports. A value for this index below unity indicates a comparative disadvantage. If the index takes
a value greater than unity, the country is considered to have a "revealed" comparative advantage in the
product. In this particular case, Turkey has a revealed comparative advantage in a product if its export of
that item as a share of its total exports exceeds the EU imports of the item as a share of EU total imports.
21
steadily rising since 1995.
Low technology and unskilled labor intensive products are also Turkey's major source of
net foreign currency earnings. Turkey is a huge net exporter of low technology and labor
intensive products to the EU and net importer of medium to high tech products. Its exports of the
former have been around five times higher in terms of value than imports from the EU generating
export earnings to finance other imports. While Turkey is a large net importer of medium to high
value products, their exports in terms of their imports significantly increased from 20 percent in
1995 to 26 percent in 2000, 59 percent in 2001 and slightly fell to 56 percent in 2004. So did the
imports. They were around three times higher in 2004 than in 1995.
Relative stability of the time profile of `technology content' of Turkey's imports from the
EU contrasts rather sharply with changes in `technology content' of Turkish exports to these
markets. Figure 6 presents respective shares of exports and imports from the EU in total `tech'
exports and imports excluding resource intensive products. The change in Turkish EU-oriented
exports was very extensive, with the share of low tech and unskilled labor intensive products
falling steadily from 90 percent in 1990 to 70 percent in 2000 and 56 percent in 2004. Over 1990-
2004, the share of `low tech and unskilled labor intensive' products in Turkish imports from the
EU oscillated between 13 percent (2000) and 20 percent (1995) and high and medium tech
products between 77 percent and 80 percent.
Figure 6: `Technology content' of Turkish trade with the EU in 1990-2004 (in percent)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Imports: 'low tech' products Imports:'medium to high tech' products
Exports: 'low tech' products Exports:'medium to high tech' products
Source: Computations based on EU25 data from UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Hence, since around 1998 there has been a very strong shift towards products
characterized by medium to high technology processes. Since exports of resource intensive
products expanded broadly in line with total exports, the growth in the weight of medium to high
tech products has been at the expense of low technology products. On the import side, the
composition has been stable with medium to high technology products accounting for most of
Turkey's imports from the EU.
EU markets have played a critical role in transformation of Turkish export basket. Table
11 listing 20 top sectors, identified in terms of four-digit SITC products, ranked according to the
value of exports to the EU (Table 11) provides a good illustration of it.9 These sectors drove the
9Sectors successful in global markets have also been successful in EU markets. Annex Table 1 provides
the list of top twenty sectors in terms of the size of their worldwide exports. It is the same for total exports
and EU-destined exports.
22
transformation, with their share in Turkish EU-destined exports increasing from 47 percent in
2000 to 56 percent in 2004. Furthermore, the shares of exports to the EU of Turkey's top 20
exporters (71 percent) tend to be much higher than the average share of the EU in total exports
(60 percent). Leaving aside clothing, this applies in particular to technologically more
sophisticated sectors exporting automotive parts, electronics, etc. EU markets take 91 percent of
motor vehicles for transport of goods, 90 percent of Turkey's exports of television receivers and
80 percent of parts of piston engines. Exports of household refrigerators, whose value of exports
increased 2.7 times, expanded more to other markets following their success in EU markets,
whose share fell from 80 percent in 2000 to 73 percent in 2003. The same pattern can be observed
in the case of passenger motor cars.
Table 11: Top twenty four-digit SITC exporters to the EU in 2004: exports, ranking, share in
total and percentage of exports going to the EU in 2000 and 2004 (in percent and millions of US
dollars)
Exports ($ 2004 Share of EU
million) Index Export share Ranking in Exports
SITC4 Product 2000 2004 2000=100 2000 2004 2000 2004 2000 2004
Passenger motor cars, for
7810 transport 491 2,838 578 2.9 8.0 6 1 84 76
Under garments, knitted of
8462 cotton 1,046 2,351 225 6.2 6.6 1 2 72 82
7611 Television receivers 768 1,971 256 4.6 5.6 3 3 90 91
Motor vehicles for
7821 transport of goods 37 1,484 4,022 0.2 4.2 84 4 78 89
8439 Other outer garments 729 1,399 192 4.3 4.0 4 5 64 73
Jerseys, pull-overs,
8451 twinsets, cardigans 870 1,155 133 5.2 3.3 2 6 83 79
Other outer garments &
8459 clothing 593 1,111 187 3.5 3.1 5 7 73 75
Other parts & accessories
7849 of motor vehicles 379 1,044 276 2.3 3.0 9 8 62 64
Bed linen, table linen, toilet
6584 & kitchen 461 888 193 2.7 2.5 7 9 74 66
Trousers, breeches etc. of
8423 textile fabrics 431 747 173 2.6 2.1 8 10 71 66
8472 Clothing accessories 257 603 235 1.5 1.7 13 11 92 83
Fruit otherwise prepared
0589 or preserved 203 561 276 1.2 1.6 19 12 83 83
Parts of internal
combustible piston
7139 engines 189 554 293 1.1 1.6 20 13 76 77
Under garments, knitted,
8463 of synthetic 311 538 173 1.9 1.5 11 14 91 87
6732 Bars & rods, of iron/steel 159 429 270 0.9 1.2 22 15 20 25
0577 Edible nuts 375 421 112 2.2 1.2 10 16 81 78
Insulated elect.wire, cable,
7731 bars, strings 278 396 142 1.7 1.1 12 17 61 49
Household type
7752 refrigerators 157 395 251 0.9 1.1 24 18 81 70
Public-service type
7831 passenger motor 206 389 189 1.2 1.1 18 19 21 42
Other tubes and pipes, of
6783 iron or steel 158 351 223 0.9 1.0 23 20 63 56
All above products 8,097 19,626 242 48.2 55.5 69 71
0 to 9 All goods 16,803 35,378 211 100 100 55 55
Source: Derived from the UN COMTRADE database as reported by the EU.
The composition of exports of top-twenty performers in terms of technology content and
natural resource intensity also points to significant realignment in Turkish export offer. The share
23
of medium to high technology products in top-twenty rose from 25 percent in 2000 to 39 percent
in 2004 almost exclusively at the expense of the fall in the share of low technology products from
59 percent to 47 percent. Spectacular increases in exports of passenger cars and trucks and
exports of boats and other vessels have been behind this change.
C. Transformation in factor intensities of Turkish exports
Patterns in trade in goods reflect differences in comparative advantage as determined by
different factor endowments among countries. A country tends to export those goods that use its
factors that are relatively abundant.10 Exploring a full causal chain linking factor endowments,
comparative advantage and trade patterns are not relevant for this discussion.11 The question
germane here concerns assessment of broad changes in relative factor intensities as revealed in
Turkey's trade with the EU and other Pan-European partners.
Given the differences in respective endowments in factors of production, one would
expect Turkey to export products to its Pan-European partners with significant content of natural
resource and unskilled labor intensive products and import capital and skilled labor intensive
products. Indeed, empirical data corroborate this expectation, but only on the import side.
Turkey's imports from the EU have been remarkable stable in terms of content over time, with
capital and skilled labor intensive goods accounting for around 80 percent of Turkey's imports.
Like experiences only shared among EU-8 economies, Turkey has witnessed a very
significant restructuring in factor intensities of its exports. The factor content of Turkish exports
has undergone dramatic change indicating rapid movement towards higher value-added products
(see Figure 7). The share of natural resource-based and unskilled labor intensive products has
been falling, while that of capital- and skilled labor-intensive products has been rapidly
expanding especially over the last four years. Skilled labor intensive products have been the
major drivers of change. While in 1990 their share in total EU-oriented exports amounted to 10
percent as compared with 54 percent for unskilled labor-intensive products, the former rose to 22
percent and the latter fell to 49 percent in 2000. In 2004 these shares were 30 percent and 46
percent, respectively.
The shift away from products embodying natural resources and unskilled labor, which is
a reflection of the development of more sophisticated industrial capacities competitive in global
markets, has been quite significant even when cast against EU-8. The simple average of the
aggregate share of skilled labor and capital intensive products in total EU-directed exports from
the EU-8 increased 18 percentage points from 51 percent in 1996 to 69 percent in 2004 (Table
12). This share in Turkey's total exports increased 23 percentage points from 21 percent in 1996
to 44 percent in 2004.
10However, this fully takes place if there is a competitive market mechanism efficiently allocating
resources By the same token, the persistence in disconnect between country's endowments in factors of
production and factor intensities of its exports point to major institutional and policy deficiencies in the
existing economic regime.
11The goodness of results obtained hinges critically on the quality of a classification used to examine
export baskets over time by factor mix. The choice is always controversial. There are woeful difficulties to
define and measure factor intensity, and trade theorists have long wrestled with it. Some definitions of the
groups of goods by factor intensity are overlapping and non-exhaustive. Definitions used here do not suffer
from these shortcomings--all industries are taken into account and an industry appears only in one
classification; and the classification distinguishes among four types of factors. Since some industries are
intensive in terms of more than one factor, the results may be distorted. But even assuming that the initial
classification captures adequately factor proportions at a given point of time, with the passage of time it
may provide a distorted picture. Some industries may become more capital-intensive or less active in
technological terms.
24
Figure 7: Factor intensities of Turkey's exports to the EU in 1990, 1995-2004 (in percent)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Natural Resources Capital Intensive Unskilled Labor Skilled Labor
Source: Computations based on EU data from UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Table 12: Share of skilled labor and capital intensive products in total exports of EU candidate
countries and EU-8 in 1996 and 2004 (in percent)
1996 2004 Percent Point Change
% Share in Of which: % in % Share in Of which: % in % Share in Of which: % in
Country/Group Total Exports Skilled Labor Total Exports Skilled Labor Total Exports Skilled Labor
Turkey 21 13 44 35 23 22
Bulgaria 39 15 31 15 -7 0
Croatia 33 10 34 11 1 1
Romania 29 14 35 16 6 1
EU-8 (simple average) 51 26 69 34 18 9
Memo:
SEE-4 (simple average) 20 10 27 16 7 6
Note: SEE-4: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia and Serbia and Montenegro
Source: Computations based on EU-15 data as reported in UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Turkey's performance contrasted rather sharply with that of other EU candidate countries
and South East European countries (SEE-4, see note in Table 12), which are parts of the EU
Stabilization and Association process. While the aggregate share of skilled labor and capital-
intensive products in Turkish exports in 1996 was well below that in other comparator countries
and groups except for SEE-4, the share in 2004 was the second largest after the EU-8. Between
1996 and 2004 it increased seven percentage points in exports from SEE-4, six percentage points
in Romania's exports and 1 percentage point in Croatia's exports. It fell seven percentage points
in Bulgaria's exports triggered by the increase in exports of unskilled labor intensive products
rather than natural resource intensive products, as one might expect given Bulgaria's endowments
in factors of production.12
Another interesting feature of Turkey's performance relative to other European transition
economies--except for SEE-4 economies and Croatia--was that the levers of growth were skilled
labor intensive products. They were responsible for 96 percent of the increase in the weight of
these products in Turkish total exports between 1996 and 2004 as compared to 49 percent for the
EU-8 economies and 25 percent for Romania. As for SEE-3 economies and Croatia the increase
came also from exports of skilled labor intensive products accounting for 83 percent and 96
percent of the respective changes.
12The share of unskilled labor intensive products in Bulgaria's exports increased from 17 percent in 1996
to 31 percent in 2004.
25
Indeed, skilled labor intensive products drove the expansion of Turkish exports in 2000-
04 and were the bright spot in export performance in 1996-2000 that barely kept pace with the
growth in Pan-European external import demand. Exports of skilled labor intensive products
grew on average (least square average) over 1990-2004 at 21 percent per year, with the growth
clearly accelerating towards the end of this period. Least square average growth rates were 12
percent for 1990-95, 22 percent for 1996-2000 and 31 percent for 2000-04. Improvements in
competitiveness in Pan-European markets have been responsible for the expansion in exports
since 1994. While in 1990-93 the share of skilled labor intensive products imported from Turkey
in Pan-European external imports, as well as in EU-15 imports, was stable at around 1 percent, it
increased to 1.2 percent in 1994 and kept growing every year in 1995-2004. Leaving aside a very
small increase in the share of unskilled labor intensive products in 2000 over 1996 (0.1
percentage point) in Pan-European imports of these products, skilled labor intensive products
were the only group that increased its share during this period (Table 13).
A sharp decline in the share of natural resource intensive products in Turkish exports has
accompanied rapid growth in skilled labor intensive exports. After a steep decline in 1990-92, the
share of natural resource products was stable until 1997. During this period the rise of skilled
labor intensive products was at the expense of unskilled labor intensive products whose share fell
from 58 percent in 1993 to 52 percent in 1997 (Figure 8).
Capital intensive exports regained their vigor in 2000-03 following a period of relatively
uninspiring performance in 1996-99. Their share in Turkey's Pan-European exports stagnated in
1996-99 after significantly expanding in 1990-94 from 6 percent to 9 percent and increased to 9.6
percent in 2000, 10.3 percent in 2003 and slightly fell to 9.7 percent in 2004.
Table 13: Factor content of Turkey's Pan-European exports in 1996-2004 and their dynamics
over 1999-2004 (in million of US dollars and percent)
Least Square Growth
Factor Intensity 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1990-95 1996-00 2000-04
Turkey's Exports to Pan-Euro ($ million)
Natural Res. 3,496 3,606 3,478 3,643 3,318 3,586 3,494 4,414 4,991 3.6 -0.9 10.2
Unskilled Labor 7,019 7,518 8,389 8,557 8,634 9,408 11,159 14,524 16,072 6.7 5.4 16.8
Capital 1,164 1,312 1,476 1,543 1,684 1,995 2,318 3,283 3,680 15.2 9.0 20.6
Skilled Labor 1,777 1,984 2,841 3,556 3,929 5,087 6,532 9,637 13,198 11.8 21.7 30.6
All above goods 13,457 14,420 16,185 17,300 17,565 20,076 23,503 31,859 37,941 7.0 7.1 20.0
Percent Points Change
Export Share of Pan-Euro (%) 1990-95 1996-00 2000-04
Natural Res. 26.0 25.0 21.5 21.1 18.9 17.9 14.9 13.9 13.2 -5.5 -7.1 -5.7
Unskilled Labor 52.2 52.1 51.8 49.5 49.2 46.9 47.5 45.6 42.4 -0.6 -3.0 -6.8
Capital 8.6 9.1 9.1 8.9 9.6 9.9 9.9 10.3 9.7 2.5 0.9 0.1
Skilled Labor 13.2 13.8 17.6 20.6 22.4 25.3 27.8 30.2 34.8 3.6 9.2 12.4
Percent Points Change
Share in Pan-Euro External Imports (%) 1990-95 1996-00 2000-04
Natural Res. 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.2 -0.2 0.2
Unskilled Labor 8.2 8.1 8.7 8.8 8.3 9.1 10.4 11.1 11.5 1.0 0.1 3.2
Capital 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.4
Skilled Labor 2.0 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.6 4.9 5.9 6.9 8.1 0.8 1.6 4.5
All above goods 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.5 0.3 0.0 1.5
Source: Computations based on Pan-European import data from UN COMTRADE Statistics.
26
Figure 8: Evolution in the factor content of Turkish Pan-European-destined exports over 1990-
2003(in percent)
55
45
35
25
15
5
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Natural Resources Unskilled Labor
Capital Intensive Skilled Labor
Source: As in Table 13.
Developments in factor intensity of exports point to the growing importance of Turkey's
links to EU-8 as well as other Pan-European countries (Bulgaria, Romania and EFTA) aside from
the EU-15. Pan-European markets other than those of the EU-15 have become increasingly
receptive consumers of skilled labor and capital intensive products made in Turkey and engines
of Turkey's export growth. While Turkish exports to these markets have registered a stronger
growth than in exports to EU-15 across all categories of products in terms of their factor
intensities, growth differentials, however, were particularly large in capital and skilled labor
intensive products. The value of exports of these products increased almost four-fold between
2000 and 2004 from US$ 533 million to US$ 2,540 million. The growth of these exports was
twice as fast as EU-15-destined exports of these products.
Table 14: Developments in exports to non-EU-15 Pan-European economies in 1990, 2000 and
2003 (in percent)
Non-EU-15 in Turkey's
Composition Least Square Growth Pan-Euro Exports
Factor Intensity 1990 1996 2004 1990-95 1996-00 2000-04 1990 1996 2004
Natural Resource 49.1 35.1 13.4 6.9 -0.4 17.6 6.3 9.5 13.4
Unskilled Labor 41.1 31.0 35.8 11.0 15.5 30.8 3.1 4.2 11.1
Capital 4.3 16.2 14.0 43.9 2.4 37.0 3.0 13.2 19.0
Skilled Labor 5.4 17.7 36.8 36.3 21.3 41.5 2.3 9.4 14.0
All above goods 100 100 100 15.0 10.1 32.7 4.0 7.0 13.2
Source: Computations based on Pan-Euro and EU import data from UN COMTRADE Statistics.
In contrast to export performance in 1990-95, skilled labor intensive products have
subsequently become the major levers of export expansion to non-EU-15 Pan-European markets.
While capital intensive products followed by skilled labor intensive exports drove the growth in
1990-96, the latter drove the expansion in 1996-2003. The share of EU-15 in Turkish Pan-
European exports of skilled labor products fell from 98 percent in 1990 to 916 percent in 1996
and 86 percent in 2004.
Simultaneously, the factor content gap between EU-15-destined exports and those to
other pan-European markets has been falling. While through the 1990s the EU-oriented export
basket had a lower presence of natural resources intensive products and a larger presence of
27
unskilled labor intensive products, Turkish exports to other pan-European markets in terms of
factor intensities began converging in 1999-2004. The difference between shares of natural
resources products has become negligible and than between shares of unskilled labor intensive
fell from around 20 percentage points in favor of the EU-15 in 1991-1998 to 9 percentage points
in 2001-02.13 Correspondingly, non-EU-15 pan-European exports had larger shares of capital and
skilled labor intensive goods. In contrast, factor content of exports to non-Pan-European markets
is different in two respects: it continues to be more natural resource based and less unskilled labor
intensive.
But even more significant is that the difference between respective export baskets in 2004
is incomparably smaller than it was in 1996-98 indicating growing similarity in Turkey's
specialization patterns in Pan-European and other markets. While the share of natural resource-
based products has been falling in both Pan-European- and ROW-destined exports and the share
of capital intensive has remained roughly unchanged, expansion in exports of skilled labor
intensive products to Pan-European markets and that of unskilled labor intensive to ROW
markets has driven the convergence. The latter trend, however, has begun to subside in 2002,
with skilled labor intensive products recording the strongest growth in exports to both ROW and
Pan-European countries in 2002-04.
E. Conclusions
In a nutshell, the picture of Turkey's industrial development that emerges from the
analysis through the lenses of the level of technology and factor content of foreign trade testifies
to the emergence of modern industrial structures highly competitive in global and pan-European
markets. Over the last five years, there has been a very pronounced shift towards production of
goods requiring skilled labor and more sophisticated technologies. The shift is comparable in
scope to that incurred by the EU-8 economies during the pre-accession period. Its major levers in
both cases have been skilled labor and capital intensive products manufactured in operations
characterized by medium to high technology.
Although low technology and unskilled labor intensive products together with resource-
based products still account for more than half of Turkish exports to Pan-European preferential
partners, exports of medium to high technology products with high content of capital and skilled
labor were the levers of the recent export expansion. If the average rates of export growth
recorded in 2000-03 were sustained, the aggregate share of skilled labor and capital intensive
products in total exports would exceed the 50 percent threshold in 2007.
The shift towards products requiring more capital, better-trained labor force and more
sophisticated technologies has two important consequences. First, industries intensive in skilled
labor and capital tend to pay higher wages. It seems that the growth of exports in these sectors has
boosted output growth and helped improve living standards. In contrast, exports of natural
resource-based products that involve little processing do not have the similar effect on wages.
Second, the shift away from products embodying natural resources and unskilled labor
competitive in global markets augurs well for future sustainability of exports. High wages in
higher technology sectors lead also to higher wages in services (especially in non-tradables) and
unskilled labor-intensive sectors, such as textiles and footwear. Given the growing competition
from low-wage countries in Asia and elsewhere, these exports may not be sustainable over a
longer term. On the other hand, capital and skilled labor intensive products are less sensitive to
changes in labor cost. Sustainability of their exports hinges critically on the availability of high
quality human capital and firms' absorptive capacity of new technologies.
13Another way of expressing the differences is sum of absolute differences between shares. This fell from
an average of around of 45 in 1991-96 to 27 in 1999 and 18 percentage points in 2004.
28
Capital and labor have been moving to more sophisticated and higher value added
activities and more processed goods with higher content of capital and skilled labor have been
expanding faster than traditional inputs and unskilled labor intensive products.
5. Integration into EU production structures: participation in EU-driven value
chains and networks
The emergence of international production and distribution networks has triggered
globalization of economic activities and revamped the economic landscape facing nations,
industries and individual firms. Such networks, also known as commodity chains, refer to the
whole range of activities involved in the design, production and marketing of a product. Its
trademark is dividing up the value chain into smaller components and moving them to countries
where their costs of production could be lower. One may distinguish between `buyer-driven' and
`producer-driven' value chains (Gereffi, 1999, p.41-42). The former refers to the case of global
buyers creating a supply-base upon which production and distribution systems are built without
direct ownership. We include in it textiles and clothing (TC), footwear and furniture. The
`producer-driven' networks refer to vertically integrated arrangements as exemplified by
automotive networks, information, and communication technology networks.
Network trade has been also the driving force of EU-8 economies' integration into global
markets. The most developed of them have moved through two stages. First, `buyer-driven'
network exports have been the first major vehicle linking them to external markets. The point of
departure has been as a rule inward processing in relatively technologically simple and capital
non-intensive activities such as clothing often followed and/or accompanied in transition
economies by footwear and furniture. The second stage has been participation in `producer-
driven' networks. Engagement in global networks in electronics or automotive industry usually
comes at higher stages of economic development. It marks moving to a new division of labor
based on production fragmentation.
Integration into EU-25 production and distribution value chains and networks structures
has been the driver of Turkey's increasing participation in division of labor based on outsourcing
and production fragmentation. EU-25 absorbed 68 percent (together with other Pan-European
countries 72 percent) of all Turkish network exports as compared to 56 percent of Turkish total
exports (Table 15). Network exports to the EU have expanded rapidly, with their share in total
EU-25-destined exports rising from 58 percent on average in 1995-99 to 62 percent in 2004.
Furthermore, the share of markets other than the Pan-European free trade area for industrial
products has been declining pointing to closer links of Turkish firms with multinationals
operating out of the EU-25.
Table 15: Significance of Pan-European markets in Turkish all network trade in 1995-99 and
2000-04 and 2004 (in percent)
Average share in Turkey's Average share in Turkey's Share of total network exports in
total networks' exports all goods exports all goods exports to
Market 1995-99 2000-04 2004 1995-99 2000-04 2004 1995-99 2000-04 2004
EU-25 66.2 68.0 69.5 53.7 55.1 55.3 57.9 61.6 61.8
Other Pan-Euro 3.2 3.2 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.4 41.8 42.1 43.7
ROW 30.6 28.8 26.6 42.7 41.1 40.3 33.7 35.0 32.5
Note: Total networks include T&C, footwear, furniture, automobile and ICT chains.
Source: Computations based on Turkey data from UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Network trade, accounting now for almost three-thirds of Turkey's EU-destined exports,
has also driven Turkey's integration into EU markets in a pattern and sequence similar to that
observed earlier in several EU-8 economies. While Turkey has not as yet moved fully to the
second stage, the process appears to be at a full swing. The value of exports of parts and final
29
products from `producer-driven' networks increased 178 percent in 2000-04, while those from
`buyer-driven' networks increased by a very respectable 50 percent. As a result, the composition
of network exports has been undergoing significant evolution, with their share in all networks'
exports increasing from 11 percent in 1990-96 to 23 percent in 2000 and 38 percent in 2004.
This section examines in more detail Turkey's place in evolving division of labor driven
regionally by EU Eastern Enlargement Project. It assesses participation of Turkish firms in global
chains organized around the EU-15 but also increasingly encompassing some recent EU entrants,
mainly Hungary and to a lesser extent the Czech Republic that are becoming regional
intermediaries in `producer-driven' networks (Kaminski 2005).
A. Participation in `buyer-driven' value chains in comparative perspective
`Buyer-driven' commodity chains tend to exist in industries in which large retailers,
branded marketers and branded manufacturers play the pivotal roles in setting up decentralized
production networks in a variety of exporting countries, typically in developing or transition
economies. This pattern has become common in labor-intensive, consumer goods sectors, such as
apparel, footwear, etc. Our focus will be on three `buyer-driven' chains: textiles and clothing
(T&C); footwear; and furniture. The latter differs especially from T&C value chains, as it
involves operations that tend to be more diversified and complex requiring larger local input of
skills and investment in capital assets. Similarly to clothing and footwear, furniture producers
operating in a global value chain supply products according to specification provided by large
multinational retailers. They also tend to be locally owned, albeit not always,14 but the
relationship between supplier and multinational retailer frequently reflects larger complexity of
tasks involved. In consequence, their relationship is based on a more long-term mutual
commitment, which is less sensitive to the rise in labor costs and creates more opportunities for
spillovers.
Clothing and, to a lesser extent, footwear and furniture have been the quintessential
engines of growth for many EU-8 and other European economies during the initial stages of
transition. They have accounted for a significant share of value added and manufacturing
employment, with consequential implications for poverty reduction. With increasing wages in
successful reformers, many of outward processing operations in the clothing sector have been
shifting to economies less advanced in the transformation process to take advantage of lower
labor costs in other countries in Central and South East Europe through the 1990s. The dates
when their share in exports of manufactures peaked indicates the end of T&C as engines of export
growth. In contrast to Bulgaria and Romania as well as other SEE-4 economies, where T&C
shares peaked only in the second half of the 1990s and early 2000s, Turkey followed the pattern
of EU-8, with their share peaking in the early 1990s (Table 16).
Despite a similar time profile, the share of T&C products in Turkish exports peaked at a
much higher level than in the EU-8 economies and consequently still accounts--despite a very
significant contraction of 16 percentage points--for a much larger share of the total export than in
EU-8 exports. It is lower, however, than in exports originating in Bulgaria and Romania. Exports
from these two countries had positive growth rates in 1995-04. Neither Turkey nor any EU-8 had
positive growth rates of T&C exports during this period. Among EU-8 economies Latvia has the
largest share of T&C chain products in its total exports.
14Turkey and Romania stand out. Firms with foreign capital are present in Turkey's clothing industries.
For instance, four firms specializing in wearing apparel (excluding knit) account for 89 percent of total
capital stock of this sector and 212 firms producing ready made garments account for 71 percent (MIT
2004, p. 46). Foreign-owned firms, mainly Italian, tower the Romanian apparel and garment sector
(Kaminski and Ng 2004).
30
Table 16: Shift away from clothing global value chain of EU-8 and share of clothing in exports
of manufactured goods excluding chemicals and `buyer-driven' exports in 1992-2004 (in percent)
Country Peak Share in Percent Exports ($ Index: 2004 Least Square Share of T&C in `buyer-
Year Peak Year Share in million) Peak=100 Growth (%) driven' chains' exports in
(%) 2004 2004 1995-04 1995 2004 % point ch.
EU-8
Czech R. 1993 7.4 2.0 858 26 -11.1 70.7 64.3 -6.4
Estonia 1993 27.5 7.0 279 25 -10.5 76.2 56.3 -19.9
Hungary 1992 20.8 3.1 1,134 15 -15.8 71.0 64.5 -6.5
Latvia 1994 22.7 14.6 271 64 -1.5 83.9 72.0 -12.0
Lithuania 1999 34.8 19.3 678 56 -4.0 88.6 64.8 -23.8
Poland 1993 21.4 4.3 1,834 20 -15.4 65.6 38.3 -27.2
Slovak R. 1994 8.9 3.3 668 37 -8.7 69.3 54.4 -15.0
Slovenia 1992 15.6 3.7 368 24 -12.2 62.7 41.0 -21.6
SEE-4
Albania 2000 41.5 34.0 143 82 -1.6 57.6 45.7 -11.9
BiH 1998 28.5 16.1 153 56 0.7 44.9 36.2 -8.6
FYROM 2003 47.9 40.1 408 84 1.4 88.1 88.7 0.6
S and M 1992 22.4 11.2 207 50 7.7 59.8 58.7 -1.1
EU-candidates
Bulgaria 2001 37.7 31.2 1,616 83 5.1 82.6 80.9 -1.7
Croatia 1993 32.3 17.1 613 53 -5.7 67.6 64.6 -3.0
Romania 1999 37.1 29.5 5,276 80 0.7 64.0 66.2 2.2
Turkey 1992 46.9 27.2 12,057 58 -4.2 98.3 95.4 -2.9
Note: Manufactured goods excluding chemicals
Source: Computations based on world import data from UN COMTRADE Statistics.
A feature setting Turkey aside from EU-8 firms' involvement in `buyer-driven' value
chains is a relatively much smaller presence of furniture chains in exports of `buyer-driven'
chains. The value of their exports of US$ 180 million was about half of exports of furniture
network and one-tenth of T&C exports (Table 17). In contrast to most EU-8, the T&C chain
towers over other buyer-driven' value chain with the share in total `buyer-driven' chains' exports
at 96 percent in 2003. Except for Macedonia, the dominance of T&C chain is much less pointed
in exports from other countries.
Yet, Turkey appears to be moving along the same path that the EU-8 economies took
earlier, with its furniture sector rapidly becoming integrated into international supply chains.
Although the share of furniture network's products in exports of manufactured goods (excluding
chemicals) remains well below the levels in other transition pan-European countries,15 there are
some signs of change in EU-25-destined exports. The contraction, admittedly very small, in the
share of T&C products in total exports of `buyer-driven' chains from 99 percent in 2000 to 96
percent in 2003 has been only because of the emergence of the furniture network as a significant
exporter (Table 17). The value of exports of furniture network reached US$ 456 million in 2003,
with its share in total `buyer-driven' exports almost quadrupling from 0.8 percent in 1995 to 2.9
percent in 2000 and further rising to 2.5 percent in 2003 and 3.3 percent in 2004.
15The lowest share among EU-8 was 2 percent (Hungary) as compared to Turkey's 1.5 percent. This share
was the highest in Lithuania's exports (13.4 percent) followed by Poland (11 percent), Estonia (10 percent)
and Latvia (9 percent). In both Bulgarian and Romanian, the share was higher than in Turkey's exports and
amounted in 2003 to 3.4 percent and 5.5 percent respectively.
31
Table 17: Characteristics of `buyer-driven' chains in terms of exports and imports in 1995, 2000
and 2004 (in percent and million of US dollars)
T&C chain Footwear chain Furniture network
1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004
Network exports (US$ mill) 8,650 10,223 17,662 114 114 205 75 179 611
share in total 'buyer-driven' 97.9 97.2 95.6 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.7 3.3
Exports of parts (US$ mill.) 2,525 3,672 6,429 1 13 23 18 38 129
share in total 'buyer-driven' 99.2 98.6 97.7 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.0
Network imports (US$ mill) 1,924 2,469 5,005 46 114 303 73 201 296
share in total 'buyer-driven' 94.2 88.7 89.3 2.2 4.1 5.4 3.6 7.2 5.3
Imports of parts (US$ mill.) 1,833 2,150 4,226 12 12 16 27 59 154
share in total 'buyer-driven' 97.9 96.8 96.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.4 2.7 3.5
Source: Computations based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Export growth rates of each network exceeded the growth of the EU's external import
demand for these products. As a result, producers in `buyer-driven' networks have succeeded in
increasing their share in EU external imports through the combination of increases of exports of
both parts and final products. Suppliers of footwear had the largest increase but from a very small
base. Turkish T&C chain accounting now for around 15 percent of EU imports of textiles and
clothing has also seen a substantial, 25 percent increase in its share in 2000-03. The presence of
furniture network in EU markets is also visible, as suppliers of furniture parts account for more
than 5 percent of these EU external imports (Table 18).
It appears that Turkish firms operating in `buyer-driven' chains are not merely assembly
shops for EU multinationals taking advantage of cheap labor. While without the survey of firms
in sectors or access to input-output tables it would be impossible to provide an unequivocal proof
of this assertion, an examination of trade data tabulated in Table 18 suggests a two-way
involvement going beyond simple outward processing.
In fact, trade flows, encompassing two-way movements of both parts and final products
within each chain point to the development of backward linkages. Import intensities in each
chain, i.e., imports of parts/inputs relative to exports of final products and parts, have been
declining. This indicates increase in local content, with parts domestically produced replacing
imports. It appears that domestic suppliers of the T&C network were in business in 1996, as the
import content of inputs in T&C exports was already very low then. Import intensity of T&C
exports has remained at a low level of around 20 percent.16 The import intensity of footwear and
parts is relatively low. It fell from 13 percent in 1996 to 7 percent in 2001 and then increased to
10 percent in 2004. In contrast, the import intensity of total furniture network exports fell
between 1996 (50 percent) and 2003 (19 percent), but it rose to 34 percent in 2004. This ratio has
been remarkably stable in the T&C chain. Its low level suggests a high value added domestically
to its exports. While no firm conclusions can be drawn on the basis of such a crude measure, part
of it can be attributable to more developed backward linkages in the Turkish T&C chains.
Another feature shared by all networks except footwear, but only in 2003, is that they are
net exporters. Exports from T&C network were consistently around four times higher than their
imports in 1996-2003 and rose to more than six times higher in 2004. Except for furniture, other
sectors increased their respective positive trade balances. The ratio of exports to imports for the
furniture sector fell from 250 in 2003 to 161 percent in 2004.
16Its import intensity of 23 percent is much lower than the same ratio for Bulgaria's TC chain of 55
percent. Although the higher level may be due to imported fabrics being used for producing more processed
fabrics for exports, this probably does not explain the whole difference.
32
Table 18: Trade with the EU-25 in `buyer-driven' chains in 1996, 200-2004
Index 2004
Product (SITC Rev. 2) 1996 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000=100
Textile & Clothing (SITC 65+8998+84)
Total exports of T&C ($ mill.) 6,144 6,807 7,098 8,036 10,090 11,542 170
Share of Textiles in total T&C (%) 23.6 29.4 30.7 26.7 26.5 27.2 92
Imports of textiles ($ mill.) 1,012 1,182 1,093 1,402 1,612 1806 153
Share of textiles in T&C imports (%) 84.8 83.4 85.0 85.7 83.2 84.2 101
Memo Items:
Share of T&C in Turkey's all exports (%) 50.3 44.7 41.6 41.1 38.5 33.1 74
Share of EU25 in Turkey's total T&C exports (%) 69.8 66.6 66.8 65.2 66.1 65.4 98
Share of EU15 in Turkey's total T&C exports (%) 66.2 64.9 64.8 63.0 64.0 62.8 97
Share in EU25 external imports of T&C (%) 11.1 11.7 12.4 13.6 14.6 14.8 127
of which: Textiles (%) 8.8 11.7 13.2 13.5 15.0 15.7 134
Clothing (%) 12.1 11.8 12.2 13.8 14.6 14.5 124
Total imports of textiles in % of total exports 22.3 21.0 18.3 23.4 22.9 13.2 91
Total exports in % of total imports 404 414 475 380 379 639 111
Footwear and Parts (SITC 85+6123)
Total exports of footwear & parts ($ mill.) 39 36 42 52 83 106 298
Share of parts in total footwear & parts exports 1.1 3.9 2.5 3.6 3.4 4.6 118
Imports of footwear & parts ($ mill.) 61 63 44 53 64 74 118
Share of parts in footwear & parts imports 22.4 17.7 18.7 19.5 19.2 14.9 84
Memo Items:
Share of footwear & parts in Turkey's all exports 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 130
Share of EU25 in Turkey's total footwear exports 26.1 31.3 33.0 39.5 45.2 51.7 165
Share of EU15 in Turkey's total footwear exports 12.3 19.7 21.9 29.4 36.1 43.7 222
Share in EU25 external imports of footwear & parts (%) 0.26 0.27 0.36 0.53 0.70 0.71 259
of which: Parts (%) 0.03 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.25 0.31 216
Footwear, final goods (%) 0.30 0.29 0.40 0.58 0.76 0.75 258
Total imports of parts as % of total exports 13.3 10.4 6.9 9.2 8.6 10.4 33
Total exports in % of total imports 154 100 150 113 96 143 252
Furniture and Parts Network
Total exports of furniture & parts ($ mill.) 33 103 119 162 257 343 334
Share of parts in total furniture network exports 35.5 21.1 19.8 21.0 22.8 22.1 105
Imports of furniture & parts ($ mill.) 114 159 103 112 142 213 138
Share of parts in total furniture network imports 29.1 29.7 33.2 45.0 46.9 54.1 177
Memo Items:
Share of furniture & parts in Turkey's all exports 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 146
Share of EU25 in Turkey's total furniture exports 41.1 57.0 59.5 55.9 56.2 56.1 98
Share of EU15 in Turkey's total furniture exports 38.6 53.3 57.8 53.6 53.3 52.7 99
Share in EU25 external imports of furniture & parts (%) 2.10 2.60 3.17 3.86 4.25 4.4 162
of which: Parts (%) 4.76 4.59 5.25 6.26 6.48 6.5 141
Furniture, final goods (%) 0.94 1.76 2.26 2.82 3.31 3.5 188
Total imports of parts as % of total exports 50 33 20 20 19 34 73
Total exports in % of total imports 59 89 162 223 250 161 242
Total Buyer-Driven Chains
Share of total above chains in Turkey's all exports (%) 50.9 45.6 42.6 42.2 39.8 34.4 75
Share of EU25 in Turkey's total above chain exports (%) 68.8 66.0 66.3 64.7 65.6 64.9 98
Share of EU15 in Turkey's total above chain exports (%) 65.0 64.2 64.2 62.5 63.3 62.3 97
Share in EU25 external imports of total above chains (%) 9.4 9.6 10.2 11.2 11.9
12.0 124
of which: Parts 8.0 10.3 11.5 11.8 12.9 13.5 131
Final products 9.9 9.5 9.8 11.0 11.7 11.6 123
Source: Computations based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Links to Pan-European consumers and suppliers of parts for further processing in Turkey
have expanded since 1995 in most networks. Except for the T&C network, Pan-European markets
absorbed over 1995-2003 a growing share of network exports and Pan-European producers
accounted for an increasing share of imported inputs (Table 19). In 2004, these trends were
reversed, as trade with the rest-of-world expanded slightly faster than with pan-European
countries.
33
Table 19: Direction of trade in `buyer-driven' network products and parts in 1995, 2000 and 2004 (in
percent)
EU-25 Other Pan-Euro ROW
1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004
T&C network
Total exports 70.1 66.6 65.4 2.6 2.8 3.7 27.3 30.6 30.9
Imports of textiles 33.6 47.9 36.0 2.9 2.5 2.6 65.2 51.5 61.4
Footwear network
Total exports 40.7 31.3 51.7 6.5 2.6 8.3 52.9 66.1 40.0
Imports of parts 41.2 94.0 68.7 51.7 5.3 0.32 58.8 5.9 31.0
Furniture network
Total exports 39.3 57.2 56.1 3.5 3.5 4.3 57.2 39.2 39.6
Imports of parts 75.3 80.0 75.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 23.7 19.5 24.0
Source: Computations based on Turkey reporting to UN COMTRADE Statistics.
In all, developments in trade of `buyer-driven' value chains seem to support the following
observations: Respective industrial sectors in Turkey are not enclaves, but appear to be soundly
immersed in the domestic economy. Each of them has been competitive in Pan-European markets
registering gains in market shares consistently and without reversals over time, which, in turn,
indicates continuous industrial modernization. These sectors have become parts of global value
chains, organized mainly by EU firms, as trade with the EU and other Pan-European partners
accounts for more than half of Turkey's total trade turnover. Furthermore, although T&C towers
over other sectors involved in `buyer-driven' chains, furniture network has recently displayed
strong growth outperforming in terms of exports other chains.
B. `Producer-driven' chains: automotive and information technology networks
Production fragmentation in vertically integrated sectors has led to the emergence of
`producer-driven' network trade. It differs in several important respects from traditional, `buyer-
driven' global value chains. It includes two-way flows of parts and components across firms
located in various countries for further processing and development occurring at several tiers with
large multinational corporations playing a central role in coordinating the production process.
`Producer-driven' networks are mainly present in capital- and skilled-labor-intensive
industries such as automobiles, computers, semiconductors and heavy machinery. Automotive
and information and communication technology (ICT) represent the most dynamic `producer-
driven' networks. While outsourcing in clothing, footwear or furniture has rarely been
accompanied by significant inflows of FDI, although there have been exceptions, the entry into
supply chains of automotive and ICT networks is almost inconceivable without MNCs bringing
capital, technology and marketing, albeit there are exceptions to this rule.17 As MNCs drive trade
in these two networks, it may be also referred to as "MNC-driven" network trade.18
Not surprisingly, linkages with EU firms have been driving `producer-driven' network
trade and they appear to be much stronger than in `buyer-driven' trade with the EU accounting for
a larger share of network trade. Other Pan-European countries' firms and consumers remain
marginal, although their significance increased over 2000-04. Automotive sector is more EU-
concentrated than the ICT industries. While EU markets take a larger share of total ICT network's
exports than automotive network's exports, ICT firms are much more dependent on imports of
final products in particular from ROW (Table 20).
17A good example is the development of automotive industry in South Korea.
18The empirically observed positive correlation between multinational activity and intra-industry trade
would also clearly point in this direction (Markusen 1998).
34
Table 20: Direction of trade in `producer-driven' networks in 1995, 2000 and 2004 (in percent)
EU-25 Other Pan-European ROW
1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004
Automobile network
Network exports 57.8 63.8 72.8 3.2 2.4 4.0 39.1 33.7 23.2
Exports of parts 63.6 65.2 65.1 2.0 1.0 1.8 34.5 33.8 33.1
Network imports 75.5 80.0 81.3 0.9 0.5 0.6 23.6 19.6 18.1
Imports of parts 79.6 70.6 79.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 19.2 28.6 19.7
ICT network
Network exports 78.0 81.3 87.2 5.4 1.9 4.4 16.6 16.8 8.4
Exports of parts 36.1 28.7 49.1 16.4 0.8 2.8 47.5 70.5 48.1
Network imports 56.9 68.5 48.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 42.3 31.3 51.7
Imports of parts 59.4 63.1 54.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 40.0 36.5 45.9
Source: Computations based on Turkey reporting to UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Turkish firms entered `producer-driven' networks with a big bang in 2001 and 2002. In
2001 the value of exports of automotive networks surged 64 percent. So did the value of ICT
exports but a year later in 2002--it had the same increase. The surge in automotive exports raised
their share in EU external imports 59 percent from 2.9 percent in 2000 to 4.6 percent in 2001. The
expansion continued in 2002--2004, with the share growing to 5.5 percent in 2002 and 9 percent
in 2004. The sudden explosion in ICT exports resulted in a 71 percent increase in their share in
EU imports of these products from 0.7 percent in 2001 to 1.2 percent in 2002 (Table 21). The
share of these two sectors in Turkey's total EU-destined exports increased from 14 percent in
2000 to 23 percent in 2003 and 27 percent in 2004.
Although final products were behind the sudden surge of exports of both networks
indicating specialization in assembly operations in the last stage of production process, there
seem to be significant differences between two sectors in their modes of integration into global
networks. ICT activities appear to consist mainly of assembly operations for exports. The share of
parts in total ICT imports increased pointing to their growing use in assembly operations destined
for exports. Another indication of specialization in the last stage of production process is the
relatively low level of exports of parts and components. This suggests that there are few firms
involved in supply chains of EU-based multinationals.
In contrast, firms of the automotive network appear to display much wider specialization
spanning across parts, components and assembly operations of motor vehicles. But the two
sectors also vary greatly in terms of size and specialization profile. The automotive sector in
terms of its exports is much larger than ICT. The former accounted for 20 percent of Turkish total
exports in 2004 and 9 percent of EU external imports, whereas the latter contributed respectable 7
percent but accounted only for 1.2 percent of EU imports of ICT products. The boost in exports
of the automotive sector came mainly from exports of motor vehicles indicating the expansion in
assembly operations. Yet, exports of parts and components doubled in terms of value rising from
US$ 1,269 million (of which US$ 704 million went to the EU-25) in 2000 to US$ 2.5 billion with
the EU taking US$ 1.4 billion in 2003 and US$ 2.7 billion with the EU purchasing US$ 1.8
billion in 2004 . Exports of motor vehicles more than quadrupled over the same period increasing
from US$ 1.2 billion (US$ 653 million to EU) to US$ 5.3 billion (EU-25 took US$ 2.9 billion)
and US$ 7 billion (the EU US$ 5.4 billion) in respective years. In consequence, the share of parts
in total automotive network exports fell from 52 percent in 2000 to 32 percent in 2003 and 28
percent in 2004. During the same period, the share of parts in ITC exports was at around 2
percent. In brief, the involvement of producers of automotive parts in international supply
networks exceeds significantly that of producers in the ITC sector.
35
Table 21: Exports to EU-25 of producer-driven networks in 1996, 2000-2004 (in million of US
dollars and percent)
Index
2004
Producer-Driven Network (SITC Rev. 2) 1996 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000=100
Automobile Network
Total exports of auto & parts ($ mill.) 577 1,357 2,225 2,783 4,355 7,019 517
Share of parts in total auto network exports 54.6 52.1 42.9 38.8 32.3 24.9 48
Imports of auto & parts ($ mill.) 2,582 5,391 2,255 2,953 6,011 10,529 195
Share of parts in total auto network imports 46.7 37.5 63.6 62.6 47.3 45.0 120
Share of parts imports in total auto network exports 208.8 149.1 64.5 66.4 65.3 67.5 45
Memo Items:
Share of auto & parts in Turkey's all exports (%) 4.7 8.9 13.0 14.2 16.6 20.1 226
Share of EU25 in Turkey's total auto network exports 53.1 63.8 70.5 68.4 70.2 72.8 114
Share in EU25 external imports of auto & parts 1.6 2.9 4.6 5.5 7.0 8.8 303
of which: Parts 2.0 3.0 3.9 4.5 5.4 5.9 194
Auto, final goods (%) 1.2 2.8 5.4 6.5 8.3 11.2 402
Information, Communication and Technology
Network (ICT)
Total exports of ICT network ($ mill.) 228 819 811 1,333 1,692 2,556 312
Share of parts in total ICT network exports (%) 6.4 2.2 3.9 1.8 2.7 2.2 97
Imports of ICT network ($ mill.) 1,212 3,780 1,822 2,032 2,298 2,979 79
Share of parts in total ICT network imports (%) 40.5 29.3 45.2 52.5 55.3 51.3 175
Share of parts imports in total ICT network exports
(%) 215.6 135.0 101.5 80.1 75.1 59.7 44
Memo Items:
Share of ICT network in Turkey's all exports 1.9 5.4 4.8 6.8 6.5 7.3 136
Share of EU25 in Turkey's total ICT network exports 69.8 81.3 77.4 83.5 85.5 87.2 107
Share in EU25 external imports of ICT network 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 206
of which: Parts (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 160
ICT, final goods (%) 0.4 1.1 1.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 175
Total Producer-Driven Networks
Share of total above networks in Turkey's all exports 6.6 14.3 17.8 21.1 23.1 27.4 192
Share of EU25 in total above network exports 57.0 69.5 72.2 72.6 73.9 76.2 110
Share in EU25 external 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.4 289
of which: Parts (%) 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 222
Final goods (%) 0.7 1.6 2.4 3.3 3.8 4.6 293
Source: Computations based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Other features setting apart automotive from ICT network are, first, that there is a large
number of local suppliers of automotive parts and components and, second, the network appears
to be moving rapidly towards the status of a net exporter. Large increase in their exports
notwithstanding, the surge in exports of final products failed to trigger similar growth in imports
of parts and components. While the value of total exports of the automotive network increased
417 percent in 2000-04, imports of parts increased only 95 percent. Furthermore, the import
intensity--as measured by the ratio of imports of parts to total automotive exports--of the
automotive sectors has been falling rather steeply since 1996 and is lower than in the ICT
network trade.19 In trade with the EU the ratio fell from 3.04 in 1996 to 1.49 in 2000 and 0.68 in
2004, while in total trade of this network from 1.35 in 1995 and 2000 to 0.62 in 2004 (Table 22).
Overall, exports as a percentage of imports increased steeply from 32 percent in 2000 to 87
percent in 2003. In other words, while in the 1990s imported parts were used among others to
19Based on network trade intensities of EU-8 that successfully have entered into supply chains, the value of
the share of imports of parts in network's exports of parts and final products below 100 percent suggests
significant involvement in division of production based on fragmentation (Kaminski and Ng, 2005).
36
assemble cars and trucks for protected domestic markets, the 2000s witnessed the emergence of
firms producing parts both for exports and domestic consumption as well as cars destined for
foreign markets.
Table 22: Total automobile and ICT network trade and share of markets other than Pan-
European free trade area in 1995, 2000 and 2004(in million of US dollars and percent)
Automobile Network ICT Network
Producer-Driven Network Product 1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004
Total network exports ($ million) 954 2,125 9,641 255 1,008 2,930
Share of ROW (other than Pan Euro area) 39 34 23 17 17 8
Exports of network final products ($ mill) 439 1,041 6,950 239 944 2,817
Share of ROW (other than Pan Euro area) 44 34 19 14 13 7
Total network imports ($ million) 2,033 6,742 12,952 1,677 5,522 6,200
Share of ROW (other than Pan Euro area) 24 20 18 42 31 52
Imports of network parts ($ million) 1,289 2,863 5,943 646 1,753 2,830
Share of ROW (other than Pan Euro area) 19 29 20 40 36 46
Total Exports as % of total Imports (%) 47 32 74 15 18 47
Imports of parts as % of total exports (%) 135 135 62 253 174 97
Source: Computations based on Turkey's data reported to the UN COMTRADE Statistics.
Last but not least, as it was signaled earlier, there is a difference in geographical patterns
of external interaction. Producers in ICT networks rely more on imported inputs from other than
pan-European suppliers and their exports are more concentrated on pan-European markets.
Respective shares in imports of parts of the ROW in 2003 were 36 percent for the ICT network
and 20 percent for the automotive network and in exports of final products 9 percent and 23
percent respectively.
C. Turkey's producer-driven network trade in regional perspective
Among EU candidates, Turkey is the only country whose firms appear to participate in
division of labor driven by production fragmentation. The level of their participation appears to
be higher than of two of EU-8, Latvia and Lithuania. The share of `producer-driven' network
products in exports of manufactures as well as its pace of growth was much stronger than in those
two countries (Table 23).
Table 23: Features of `producer-driven' network trade of EU-8 and EU-candidates in 1995,
2000 and 2004 (in million of US dollars and percent)
Exports (in million of LS Growth Share in Exports Share of Parts in Share of Parts in Share of ICT
US dollars) (%) of Manufactures Automobile ICT Network (%) Network in Total
Auto+ Parts excluding Network (%) Producer-Driven
ICT Chemicals (%) Exports (%)
1995- 1995-
Country 1995 2000 2004 04 04 1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004
Czech R. 1,919 6,655 15,355 23.1 23.1 14.8 28.5 34.9 42.9 42.6 55.2 68.3 45.5 31.5 14.4 17.9 35.0
Estonia 152 997 1,150 22.6 20.4 17.6 41.9 29.0 21.4 45.9 35.8 94.6 29.1 74.7 69.2 90.3 65.6
Hungary 2,191 12,851 22,026 22.8 17.2 26.1 56.9 59.6 85.2 66.4 80.0 51.7 17.5 13.2 29.4 59.0 62.4
Latvia 31 57 129 8.7 13.6 5.4 5.3 7.0 24.3 43.5 51.2 24.5 33.5 23.5 37.5 68.0 63.8
Lithuania 80 190 517 17.9 14.3 10.2 11.1 14.7 62.7 35.9 52.3 95.5 79.4 51.5 91.5 80.1 78.1
Poland 1,790 5,376 13,186 22.3 28.3 13.7 24.9 30.6 29.9 56.3 60.3 71.1 32.1 46.0 22.1 20.7 19.4
Slovakia 904 2,603 9,383 24.5 18.8 15.1 30.8 46.3 49.1 25.8 30.3 47.3 56.0 31.4 12.3 14.0 15.7
Slovenia 1,131 1,442 2,302 7.2 9.9 18.2 21.8 23.3 38.0 39.4 42.0 44.9 38.0 40.0 7.9 11.3 7.4
Bulgaria 91 93 167 3.8 6.9 4.8 3.8 3.2 52.1 67.2 69.8 45.7 51.2 55.7 16.2 43.3 55.1
Croatia 69 100 221 7.7 9.4 3.5 5.7 6.2 90.6 96.4 91.7 50.2 51.1 45.2 9.1 43.8 35.7
Romania 189 669 1,546 26.1 29.6 3.8 8.4 8.7 43.4 72.6 89.5 57.0 63.4 32.2 7.9 68.0 36.0
Turkey 1,079 3,205 11,209 25.1 16.8 8.1 15.9 25.3 68.1 54.0 30.2 14.5 8.5 4.7 23.8 33.8 23.0
Source: Computations based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.
37
Indeed, Turkey's performance stands out. Together with Hungary, Czech Republic,
Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Estonia and Poland, Turkey has been identified in a recent World
Bank study (WB 2006) as one of the seven "High Performers" among European and Central
Asian countries in `producer-driven' network trade. These countries share one major
characteristic: the share of exports of `producer-driven' networks in exports of manufactures,
excluding chemicals, exceeded 20 percent in 2003. Turkey's share of 22.5 percent puts it on a par
with Slovenia and well above levels in other EU candidate countries. Except for Slovenia, the
most developed economy among EU-8, exports of parts and exports of final products in High
Performers grew at average rates exceeding 15 percent per year in 1995-2003. As a result, the
share of Turkey in total `producer-driven' networks' exports of EU-8 and EU candidate countries
increased from 9 percent in 2000 to 13 percent in 2003. This share in automotive exports is
slightly higher amounting to 15 percent in 2003 up from 10 percent in 2000.
D. Concluding observations
While `buyer-driven' network exports still accounted for 62 percent of all network
exports in 2004, their share rather dramatically declined form almost 90 percent in 1995-97 and
75 percent in 2000. Moreover, the share of T&C products in `buyer-driven' network exports
slightly fell because of the increased industrial activity within the furniture network.
Overall, there was a clear shift towards specialization in higher valued added `producer-
driven' networks. The value of their aggregate networks more than quadrupled increasing 340
percent while that of `buyer-driven' exports increased 76 percent in 2004 over 2000. Exports of
other parts and electro-engineering products more than doubled. The major driver of change,
overall, has been automotive network, but strongly supported by the expansion in exports of ICT
network final products.
The comparison with other High Performers in `producer-driven' network trade in the
region indicates the room for further expansion. Despite the impressive export performance over
2000-04, Turkey's total `producer-driven' network exports were equivalent in 2004 of 51 percent
of Hungary's exports, 73 percent of Czech, 85 percent of Poland's and 119 percent of Slovak
exports.
6. Conclusions
Turkey's recent fast export expansion appears to be based on solid ground. It is
geographically diversified; driven by skilled labor-intensive higher value added products with
medium to high technology content; based on the entry of Turkish firms into supply chains of
automotive and ICT networks; and supported by fast growth of unskilled labor and low tech-
intensive products. The shift towards higher value added exports has been taking place because
differentials in fast growth rates have been in their favor. This has not been due to either slow
down or collapse of unskilled labor-intensive exports but to a stronger push in other exports.
The available evidence looks like an economic success story in the making, even if the
story is far from over. Export expansion owes a lot to improved policy environment and domestic
liberalization. It is rather telling that the recent expansion has coincided with the implementation
of most provisions of the EU-Turkey Customs Union Agreement, the completion of the removal
of tariffs on trade in industrial products among Pan-European parties to the Pan-European
Cumulation of Origin Agreement and improved macroeconomic stability after the 2001 crisis.
The Pan European Cumulation of Origin Agreement together with elimination of tariffs in the
Pan-European area have set the groundwork for the growth of intra-industry and network trade.
The shift towards products requiring more capital, a better-trained labor force and more
sophisticated technologies and participation in international `producer-driven' networks has three
important consequences.
38
· First, industries intensive in skilled labor and capital tend to pay higher wages. It seems
that the growth of exports in these sectors has boosted output growth and helped improve
living standards. In contrast, exports of natural resource-based products that involve little
processing do not have a similar effect on wages.
· Second, the shift away from products embodying natural resources and unskilled labor
competitive in global markets augurs well for future sustainability of exports. High wages
in higher technology sectors lead to higher wages in services (especially in non-tradables)
and unskilled labor-intensive sectors, such as textiles and footwear. Given the growing
competition from low-wage countries in Asia and elsewhere, these exports may not be
sustainable over a longer term. On the other hand, capital and skilled labor intensive
products are less sensitive to changes in labor cost. Sustainability of their exports hinges
critically on availability of high quality human capital and firms' absorptive capacity of
new technologies.
· Third, network members, albeit there is no lifetime, guaranteed membership, are less
vulnerable to local shifts in demand as their `centers' operate in multiple foreign markets.
39
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