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The increases in February mean OPEC output has averaged 32.19 million bpd, about 440,000 bpd above its supply target adjusted to remove Indonesia. Iran’s production was up slightly in February versus January even though the country is effectively excluded from output cuts. “If compliance is high by OPEC and non-OPEC, then I think prices will reach $60,” said an OPEC delegate. Previous OPEC cuts have been mired in mass cheating by its members, making strong compliance by OPEC this time a positive surprise for the market, with prices trading above $55 per barrel — up from $35 a year ago. Iraq trimmed exports from its southern ports in February, boosting its compliance, the survey found, and shipping schedules suggest exports may fall more in March.

An expanded version of this article appears at WSJ.comPopular at WSJ.comThe exhaustion of American LiberalismHouse GOP releases plan to repeal, replace Obamacare HOUSTON—Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said Tuesday that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will continue to be the world’s “only catalyst” for stabilizing oil prices, but he warned that the group won’t take steps to bail out the market. Crude CLJ7, +0.04% LCOK7, -0.08% has recovered after the move to about $55 a barrel. “Saudi Arabia will not allow itself to be used by others.”The kingdom’s energy minister, who helped to broker last year’s production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day, walked a careful line between supporting ongoing OPEC involvement in price stability and defending Saudi Arabian interests in ramping up production. Investors should not fall prey to “wishful thinking that OPEC or the kingdom will underwrite the investments of others at our own expense and long-term interests,” Khalid al-Falih said at the annual CERAWeek conference.

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U.S. shale oil production had been in retreat as oil prices tumbled from above $100 a barrel in 2014 to below $30 in 2015, making costly fracking processes less profitable. “It became evident that U.S. shale oil output has become and will remain a new global oil price regulator for the foreseeable future,” Rosneft said in a written response to Reuters. A recovery in U.S. oil output may deter OPEC and non-OPEC producers from extending production cuts beyond June and might lead to a new price war, Russia’s top oil major said on Monday. The kingdom, the world’s biggest oil exporter, had long refused to cut output under veteran oil minister Ali al-Naimi. “This goal became impossible to reach because of the efficiency and viability of the Russian oil industry,” it added.