"I predict that it is in Asia where the fate of the
future will be decided." - Tsar Alexander III

Needless to say,
forecasts are extremely difficult to make in international relations,
and all the more so when so many factors are in play. The author
does not have any special information that he could use to forecast
the future. The different miniscenarios are very wide and therefore
any of these could reasonably, or unreasonably, be expected to
occur.

MiniScenario I:
Integration or growing together in a Sino-centric world

" economic
integration is the path to riches and peace." E Prescott

China uses its massive
wealth to invest in other countries generating wealth and peaceful
sustainable development in a Sino-centric world. This will be
done through the One Belt, One Road initiative that groups two
projects, the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime
Silk Road which aims at integration, on a number of levels, a
large number of countries from Asia to Europe. These projects
replace the International Socialization initiative of President
Hu.

Central Asia will
be the first beneficiary of the first project and could easily
be integrated as a supplier of energy and food.

Europe has largely
welcomed China's financial presence - it now rates as the fifth
biggest investor with 2014 FDIs of $18 billion. China has signed
an Agriculture Cooperation Plan with the European Union. China
is also interested in the Ukraine as a food supplier. Russia would
welcome investments in the Pacific where China could produce food
and timber to fill its large requirements.

The Silk Road initiative
is backed by a $40 billion fund and the creation of the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) of which even the UK has
become a founding member, soon followed by France, Germany and
Italy. This could alleviate the negative perceptions the US has
of the bank.

China's actions go
as far as Latin America where investments in Ecuador and Venezuela
cover the entire energy production process. Africa has also been
a priority zone for Chinese investments with a priority for infrastructure.
The possibility of transferring labor intensive industries to
the black continent has also been suggested.

Nevertheless, the
US remains the first destination of China's overseas investments.
Chinese companies are buying majority shareholdings in US companies
cheaply as the American economy has been underperforming significantly.
This has also led the US to considerably reduce its defense spending.

For the project to
be fully successful, however, China abandons its bullying tactics
in the South China Sea, its aggressive stance towards Japan, the
expansion of its naval power in the Indian Ocean and its rhetoric
about reconquering Taiwan. Territorial disputes with India are
settled. Historical issues leading to tensions with Japan and
the negotiation of an agreement regarding the disputed islands
should also come about.

It changes its historical
narrative to reduce anti-Japanese feelings and above all to increase
the GDP per capita of its population.

It is also more cooperative
with its ethnic minorities to avoid confrontation and gradually
slides towards a fully democratic system.

It should reduce
its military spending that make it appear as an aggressive regional
power looking to become a hegemon and invest time and money to
project a friendlier image to the surrounding countries.

A satisfactory model
is the relations between China and South Korea. This has been
achieved through frequent meetings and discussions at various
governmental levels.

China and Japan reach
an agreement on the Senkaku Islands, followed by wider agreements
covering trade and investments, and Japan becomes one of China's
closest allies. A number of events related to the US personnel
on the military bases in Japan, leads to a downgrading of the
relationship between Japan and the US and the latter is asked
to reduce the number of military personnel in the country. Effectively
the US presence in the China Sea becomes irrelevant. Taiwan can
no longer be effectively protected and a referendum approves the
return of Taiwan in the fold of the People's Republic of China.

Another important
step in increasing China's contribution to a peaceful development
is the rise of the remimbi - which today is the fifth most used
currency and the second most used in trade finance - as a global
currency. It first needs to become convertible and then become
a reserve currency and part of the IMF's SDR basket.

MiniScenario 2:
Chaos ahead: The collapse of the Chinese economy

The ageing population
and the impact of decades of the one-child policy led to a major
impact on labor availability. The country stops being considered
as low labor-cost. The government may open the country to immigration
from the neighboring countries, creating social tensions.

The anti-corruption
drive amplifies and touches a large number of well-established
senior members of the party that decide to band together. The
president is overthrown. Revolts start in several rural areas
where income inequality with city dwellers is large. Farmers and
workers are reluctant to see corruption gain the upper hand. Social
stability is threatened.

Large tracts of land
are polluted and the rural labor force ages, agricultural production
declines steeply leading to food shortages. Imports of foodstuffs
lead to increased prices and a disruption of the grain market,
exacerbated by a US-imposed reduction on exports to China. China
decides it will no longer support North Korea and a flood of refugees
arrives in the poor eastern provinces.

Water scarcity, already
a problem, grows worse due to the present agricultural plans.
A disaster is only a climatic-wrought drought away.

Pollution is affecting
agricultural production and creating major health problems. Air
pollution is major cities already led to episodes of civil unrest.

A bank collapse is
a clear possibility as the amount of outstanding bad loans is
considerable. This could lead the central bank to sell massive
amounts of dollars, putting enormous pressure on the American
currency.

The Uigur minority
revolts in an attempt to secure independence.

Maoists entice the
population to revolt and lead them into a civil war. This grinds
globalization to a halt and creates a surge in inflation.

MiniScenario 3:
The collapse of North Korea

North Korea's dictator,
Kim Jong-un is assassinated and rival army factions launch a civil
war. Chaos ensues and large numbers cross into China. The Chinese
army tries to secure the border, but facing total lack of success,
invades North Korea. The South Korean army also receives marching
orders to secure part of the North Korean territories and in particular
the Weapons of Mass Destruction. The two armies clash. US ground
forces and air support back the South Korean army.

Certain army units
that had remained loyal to the Kim clan, led by Kim Jong-Un's
sister, detonate in front of Pohang, South Korea, a nuclear engine
loaded on a ship. There follows a large number of deaths. Simultaneously
a similar deflagration is carried out in a Japanese port with
catastrophic mortality. The average Japanese is reminded of Hiroshima
and Nagasaki. North Korean artillery bombs Seoul, including with
chemical weapons. Sleeping North Korean operatives in South Korea
proceed with assassinations of key figures.

South Korea, having
previously obtained nuclear weapons, reciprocates with the use
of these weapons destroying major North Korean infrastructure.

Japans' Primer Minister
orders Japanese troops to land on the western beaches of North
Korea.

The NATO allies of
the US are expecting to be requested to provide support but no
such request is forthcoming. The US wants to avoid having China
drawn into the conflict. However, as the US, South Korean and
Japanese troops make deep inroads into North Korea and the troops
of that country put a stiff resistance, China calls urgent meetings
of the Security Council which is simply emitting toothless resolutions.
The Chinese military overtake North Korea and explode a nuclear
bomb over Seoul.

MiniScenario 4:
Reviving old enmities

China lands a group
of group of marines on the Senkaku islands. Japan may not back
down on its own claim on the islands and answers to the Chinese
provocation by an important landing of Japanese troops and what
starts as small skirmishes rapidly escalate as both sides provide
air cover to their troops. With obvious Chinese superiority due
to proximity and numbers, Japan asks for military assistance from
the US.

China disables a
several important US satellites, causing disarray in communications
among US troops. Chinese ballistic missiles rain on the US bases
in Japan as a preemptive move and North Korea bombs Seoul with
classic artillery and missiles.

Russian troops seize
the opportunity of occupying several northern islands and Hokkaido.

Essentially, the
Japanese economy is destroyed and the country suffers millions
of dead civilians.

MiniScenario 5:
Gas as mediator

For the US, Russia
can be a potential player in the containment for China. Russia,
while refusing this role, is reluctant to let China's influence
increase even more or to join China in limiting US' role in Asia.

While tensions rise
between China and Japan over the Senkaku islands, and several
incidents take place with planes colliding, Russia's increased
penetration in the Ukraine have led to severe sanctions by the
European Union and the US. An ever larger part of Russian gas
is exported to China, Japan and Korea. A conflict would seriously
impair Russia's exports. Russia therefore successfully acts as
a mediator and President Putin's prestige is enhanced both domestically
and internationally.

MiniScenario 6:
China choking or is it?

Several vessels carrying
oil for China are hijacked by pirates in the Malacca Straits.
In spite of denials by the US and Indian governments, China claims
this is a plot against it. A vessel also destined to China explodes
a few hundred miles outside the Hormuz Straits and claims are
made by an as-yet-unknown Uighur liberation movement. A US frigate
was sailing very close to the vessel at the time of the explosion.
An oil tanker bound for China is intercepted by a US vessel, thoroughly
searched and then allowed to proceed to its destination.

Central Asian and
Russian supplies are able to replace the Middle East shortfall
in exchange for further Chinese investments and an even greater
economic integration.

MiniScenario 7:
Restless islands

The US closely monitors
the synthetic islands built by China in the South China Sea and
which are claimed to be Chinese territory. Small incidents degenerate
and lead to China attempting to close air and naval space to the
US military. The US sinks a Chinese naval unit and China reciprocates.
Escalation leads to a major conflict. Escalation includes cyber
warfare, space warfare and China is able to keep the US outside
the South China Sea. Both powers refrain from using nuclear weapons
and China is free to continue its regional domination.

Every
month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges
- sparking discussion about the connection between today and the
futures we're making - and what we need, from strategy to vision
- to make the best ones.

The
Future Now ShowJuly 2015Not youth but age
is our futureThis
show discusses a future that is very much happening already 
the ageing of societies in developed nations. The huge increase
in the ratio of the old to the young is making our current economic
and social systems unworkable. And yet there is little sign that
we are adapting our societies as we surely must to manage this
demographic shift. The rise of the robots arguably poses similar
threats and yet could offer solutions too. But we are still left
with great challenges, from the way we build our physical world
to the nature of our economic and legal systems to our perception
of what a life is and should be.

Simple
no longer worksThe sum total of human knowledge continues
to increase, as does the complexity of the world we build for
ourselves. And the increase is exponential, further enhanced by
the global interconnectedness of everything. This show is not
about the utopian or dystopian futures that might result, it is
not about life beyond the singularity, it is about how this is
affecting us now and how we deal with it now. If humans are not
built to deal with such a complex and rapidly evolving world will
the increasingly intelligent and flexible systems we build constitute
the toolkit we need to adapt? How would this redefine the role
of people and are societies ready to accept and adjust to this?

Worlds first algae-based, sustainable
surfboard produced by UC San Diego biology and chemistry students

UC San Diegos efforts to produce innovative and sustainable
solutions to the worlds environmental problems have resulted
in a partnership with the regions surfing industry to create
the worlds first algae-based, sustainable surfboard.

Our hope is that Mayor Faulconer will put this surfboard
in his office so everyone can see how San Diego is a hub not only
for innovation, but also for collaboration at many different levels,
said Stephen Mayfield, a professor of biology and algae geneticist
at UC San Diego who headed the effort to produce the surfboard.
An algae-based surfboard perfectly fits with the community
and our connection with the ocean and surfing.

Mayfield, an avid
surfer for the past 45 years, joined Cardiff professional surfer
Rob Machado and Marty Gilchrist of Oceanside-based Arctic Foam,
the largest surfboard blank manufacturer in North America, to
present the board to Mayor Faulconer.

The project began
several months ago at UC San Diego when undergraduate biology
students working in Mayfields laboratory to produce biofuels
from algae joined a group of undergraduate chemistry students
to solve a basic chemistry problem: how to make the precursor
of the polyurethane foam core of a surfboard from algae oil. Polyurethane
surfboards today are made exclusively from petroleum.

Most people
dont realize that petroleum is algae oil, explained
Mayfield. Its just fossilized, 300 million to 400
million years old and buried deep in underground.

Students from the
laboratories of Michael Burkart, a professor of chemistry and
biochemistry, and Robert Skip Pomeroy, a chemistry
instructor who helps students recycle waste oil into a biodiesel
that powers some UC San Diego buses, first determined how to chemically
change the oil obtained from laboratory algae into different kinds
of polyols. Mixed with a catalyst and silicates in
the right proportions, these polyols expand into a foam-like substance
that hardens into the polyurethane that forms a surfboards
core.

To obtain additional
high-quality algae oil, Mayfield, who directs UC San Diegos
California Center for Algae Biotechnology, or Cal-CAB,
called on Solazyme, Inc. The California-based biotech, which produces
renewable, sustainable oils and ingredients, supplied a gallon
of algae oil to make the worlds first algae-based surfboard
blank. After some clever chemistry at UC San Diego, Arctic Foam
successfully produced and shaped the surfboard core and glassed
it with a coat of fiberglass and renewable resin.

Although the boards
core is made from algae, it is pure white and indistinguishable
from most plain petroleum-based surfboards. Thats because
the oil from algae, like soybean or safflower oils, is clear.

In the future,
we could make the algae surfboards green by adding
a little color from the green algae to showcase their sustainability,
said Mayfield. But right now we wanted to make it as close
as we could to the real thing.

UC San Diego undergraduates in the Biodiesel
Action Awareness Network (BAAN) determined how to chemically change
the oil obtained from laboratory algae into different kinds of
polyols in order to produce the core of the algae
surfboard.

UC San Diego undergraduates
in the Biodiesel Action Awareness Network (BAAN) determined how
to chemically change the oil obtained from laboratory algae into
different kinds of polyols in order to produce the
core of the algae surfboard.

The algae surfboard
not only represents the kind of collaboration that is the hallmark
of UC San Diego, but the fusion of biotechnology, surfing and
environmentally conscious thinking that has made the La Jolla
campus and its environs such a desirable place to work and live
for scientists, innovators and those who cherish the coastal environment.

Mayfield said that,
like other surfers, he has long been faced with a contradiction:
His connection to the pristine ocean environment requires a surfboard
made from petroleum.

As surfers
more than any other sport, you are totally connected and immersed
in the ocean environment, he explained. And yet your
connection to that environment is through a piece of plastic made
from fossil fuels.

But now, he explained,
surfers can have a way to surf a board that, at least at its core,
comes from a sustainable, renewable source. In the future,
were thinking about 100 percent of the surfboard being made
that waythe fiberglass will come from renewable resources,
the resin on the outside will come from a renewable resource,
Mayfield said.

This shows
that we can still enjoy the ocean, but do so in an environmentally
sustainable way, he added.

An international
collaboration has succeeded in using synchrotron light to detect
and record the complex 3D magnetisation in wound magnetic layers.
This technique could be important in the development of devices
that are highly sensitive to magnetic fields, such as in medical
diagnostics for example. Their results are published now in
Nature Communications.

3D structures in
materials and biological samples can be investigated today using
X-ray tomography. This is done by recording images layer-by-layer
and assembling them on a computer into a three-dimensional mapping.
But so far there has been no comparable technique for imaging
3D magnetic structures on nm length scales. Now teams from HZB
and the Institut für Festkörperphysik / Technische
Universität Dresden in collaboration with research partners
from institutions in California have developed a technique with
which this is possible.

WikiHouse is an open source building
system. Many designers, collaborating to make it simple for everyone
to design, print and assemble beautiful, low-energy homes, customised
to their needs.

Open challenge
To develop a global catalogue of high performance, low-cost, low-energy
solutions for sustainable homes & neighbourhoods;
accessible to everyone. This includes not just houses themselves,
but the ecology around them: from the planning & production
of neighbourhoods, to off-grid energy and sanitation, to sensors
& devices that allow citizens to understand and control their
homes. You can collaborate by taking on one of these challenges
and developing a solution in line with the WikiHouse principles
and standards - then share that solution. The power of open source
is that once solved, each problem will always be solved for everyone,
forever; and
will continue to evolve as it is improved and adapted.

.Nature
Is Speaking  Harrison Ford is The Ocean.Conservation
International (CI)

Who Are We? Religious, Philosophical, Scientific, and Transhumanist
Theories of Human Nature examines religious, philosophical, scientific
and transhumanist theories of human nature. It begins by discussing
various religious views of human nature - Confucianism, Hinduism,
Buddhism, and Judeo-Christianity. Then, it looks at the philosophical
theories of human nature advanced by Plato, Aristotle, Epicurus,
Kant, Sartre, Marx and Freud. Next it turns to Darwin and the
neo-Darwinians for insights into human nature from evolutionary
biology. The book concludes by considering the future of human
nature, especially how science and technology will transform human
nature into something transhuman or post-human.

Offering insights from the spheres of anthropology, psychology,
education, design, and business, Creative Intelligence
by Bruce Nussbaum, a leading thinker, commentator, and curator
on the subjects of design, creativity, and innovation, is first
book to identify and explore creative intelligence as a new form
of cultural literacy and as a powerful method for problem-solving,
driving innovation, and sparking start-up capitalism.

Nussbaum investigates
the ways in which individuals, corporations, and nations are boosting
their creative intelligence  CQ  and how that translates
into their abilities to make new products and solve new problems.
Ultimately, Creative Intelligence shows how to frame problems
in new ways and devise solutions that are original and highly
social.

Smart and eye opening,
Creative Intelligence: Harnessing the Power to Create, Connect,
and Inspire illustrates how to connect our creative output
with a new type of economic system, Indie Capitalism, where creativity
is the source of value, where entrepreneurs drive growth, and
where social networks are the building blocks of the economy.

The Oceans 2015
Initiative was launched to provide COP21 negotiators with key
information on how the future ocean will look like.

The ocean moderates
human-induced global warming but at the cost of profound alterations
to its physics, chemistry, ecology and ecosystems services. These
are the findings of a report published today in Science by the
Oceans 2015 Initiative and co-authored by IUCN World Commission
on Protected Areas Marine Vice Chair, Dan Laffoley.

The report evaluates
and compares two scenarios under two potential carbon dioxide
emissions pathways over this century. Both carry high risks to
vulnerable ecosystems, such as warm-water corals and mid-latitude
bivalve species (molluscs), but a business-as-usual scenario was
projected to be particularly devastating with a high risk of widespread
species mortalities.

Lead author, Jean-Pierre
Gattuso, Senior Scientist at CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche
Scientifique, France), hopes that the findings of the report will
generate the political will to enforce meaningful cuts in carbon
dioxide emissions, stating "The oceans have been minimally
considered at previous climate negotiations; our study provides
compelling arguments for a radical change at COP21 (the UN climate
summit in Paris in December)".

Driven by 40% increases
in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the oceans have already undergone
a series of major environmental changes in terms of ocean warming,
ocean acidification and sea level rise. Whilst the report finds
that emissions cuts in line with the Copenhagen Accord target
of less than 2 degrees temperature rise by 2100 would ensure moderate
impacts to all but the most vulnerable of species, failure to
achieve this goal would lead to high impacts on all the marine
organism groups considered. These include high-value species such
as corals and finfish as well as pteropods (shell-bearing zooplankton)
and krill that form the base of the oceanic food chain.

The report singles
out ocean acidification as one of the highest risks with the biggest
impacts; shellfish, corals and zooplankton are particularly at
risk. "Signs of ocean acidification have now been detected
in both hemispheres," warns Carl Gustaf Lundin, Director
of IUCN's Global Marine and Polar Programme. "Once thought
to be a problem for the future, acidification is already having
economic repercussions today and, if carbon emissions continue
to grow, these are set to grow rapidly."

Beyond the stringent
emissions cuts needed to meet the Copenhagen Accord target, the
authors stress the need for recognition of the ocean's important
role in climate regulation and acknowledgement of its particular
vulnerability. "Any new climate regime that fails to minimise
ocean impacts will be seen as incomplete and inadequate,
says Laffoley. "Implementation of further Marine Protected
Area networks and investment in coastal ecosystem restoration
are two important ways to ensure the ocean can remain resilient
and can continue to regulate the Earth's climate."

Hans Rosling is professor of International Health at Karolinska
Institutet, the medical university in Stockholm, Sweden. When
working as a young doctor in Mozambique he discovered a
previously unrecognized paralytic disease that his research team
named Konzo. His 20 years of research on global health concerned
the character of the links between economy and health in Africa,
Asia and Latin America.

He has been adviser to WHO and UNICEF, co-founded Médecines
sans Frontiers in Sweden and started new courses and published
a textbook on Global Health. He is a member of the International
Group of the Swedish Academy of Science and of the Global Agenda
Network of the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.

He co-founded Gapminder
Foundation with son and daughter-in-law. Gapminder
promotes a fact based world view by converting the international
statistics into moving, interactive, understandable and enjoyable
graphics. This was first done by developing the Trendalyzer software
that Google acquired in 2007. Using animations of global trends
Hans Rosling lectures about past and contemporary economic, social
and environmental changes in the world and he produces thematic
videos using the same technique. His award-winning lectures on
global trends have been labeled humorous, yet deadly serious
and many in the audience realize their own world view is lagging
many decades.

Hans Roslings 5 points on global trends are:

There are
no longer two types of countries in the world, the old div
ision into industrialized and developing countries has been
replaced by 192 countries on a continuum of socio-economic development.

Many Asian
countries are now improving twice as fast as Europe ever did.

A new gap
may form between 5 billion people moving towards healthy lives
with education, cell phones, electricity, washing machines and
health service and more than 1 billion people stuck in the vicious
circle of absolute poverty and disease.

So far all
progress towards health and wealth has been achieved at the
price of increased CO2 emission that drives the imminent climate
crisis.

There are
reasons for optimism regarding the future of the world because
the world is so poorly governed at present. Hence we have enormous
opportunities to improve the life of all humans by turning our
already converging world into an equal, secure, sustainable
and free place to live in.

Dont
Panic - Hans Rosling showing the facts about population

The world might not be as bad as you might believe!

Dont
Panic is a one-hour long documentary produced by Wingspan
Productions
and broadcasted on BBC on the 7th of November 2013.

The visualizations
are based on original graphics and stories by Gapminder and the
underlaying data-sources are listed
here.
Hans presents some results from our UK Ignorance Survey described
here.