The person on the bubble is Ashley Wagner with 18 points, next lowest is Rachael, with 26 points and tiebreakers of 2nd and 323.90. There is no mathematical way for the 26 pointers, including Rachael, to be bumped off the list, so the TEB girls will be an exercise in weird tie breakers, if Alissa does not win.

At TEB:
Alissa 15 is in if she is 1st, 30pts, 2nd,28 pts, or 3rd, 26pts
If she's 4th, she has 24 points.
Cynthia, Mirai, Kiira with 9. If any of these girls is first, they have 24 points.
Haruka with 7. If she wins, she has 22.
Mao with 3. If Mao wins, she would bump Ashley with 18 pts and the 1st place tie breaker, but it's impossible for the other 4 girls to all score lower without all eating bad sushi or having back problems.

So if Alissa wins, it's Alissa and the 5 already in. If Alissa is 2nd, she's in.
If one of the 9 pointers wins, that's 24 points, and she's out.
Same if Alissa is 3rd with 26 points.

It gets interesting if Alissa is 4th. She has then, 24 points.
If one of the 4th place girls wins, she has 24 point. The one with the highest total score, Alissa, or the 1st place finisher, is in.

If Alissa is 5th or lower, the 1st place nine pointer is in.

If Haruka is 1st (22pts), and Alissa is 5th, and one of the 9pointers is 2nd, all have 22 points. However, it is Haruka vs Alissa for highest total points in the tie breaker.

If Mao is first, and Alissa 5th or less, then it's really interesting.
I

Alissa just needs a solid outing. She can fall on a jump or 2 throughout the competition and likely still maintain her GP standing to advance to the GP Final and be on the medal podium at TEB. The important thing for her to do is rotate her jumps. If she suffers downgrades, she is in danger. Her competition in France is far from consistent. Luckily for her, Ando and Suzuki are not here.

I would wait until these Russian prodigies actually turn senior before declaring them "absolutely superior" to Yu Na Kim. That is mighty big proclamations to already make for girls who have not even competed as seniors yet.

As for Mao ever beating 228.5 all I have to say is good luck.

I don't think even Kim her self will ever crack that 228.5 or go near within 20 points again. The whole figure skating event at Vancouver was a joke, and mark are so inflated all across the ladies, pair and dance. I feel only men event was judged slight more reasonable, and the least inflated. At least no one was cracking 170 mark even with super clean performance.

Breaking out the calculator for Mroz, Amodio, and Abbott's battle for the last spot, assuming Kozuka is in and Joubert is out, which is now extremely likely:

Obviously if either of the first two overtake Kozuka in the free to win, they're in, as is Mroz if he overtakes Amodio for silver, and if Joubert or anyone else knocks anyone down even a spot, they're out. But if the standings stay as they are, then, magic numbers in the free skate to overtake Abbott:

Amodio: 146.02
Mroz: 146.15

If they both get clear their numbers, but stay where they are, it's whoever clears it by more. (And with only three points separating them, that will probably be the silver medalist, but doesn't have to be).

Sad to see no American in the final, but it was close. Well I hope they do better at Worlds!

ETA: Tomas' name + country id.

As I predicted, mens skating following the ladies footsteps, with the balance shifting to Asia, Japan specifically.
The top medalist at the GPF will earn automatically a trip to worlds from a very crowded field in the hunt. This will be interesting to see, a mini japanese nationals with 3 foreign guest stars

Seeing how he beat the #2 Japanese man with 4 falls, you better be careful about what you wish.

I can find merit in all of these guys in the GPF, and have no particular preference as to winner. My wish is for great clean skating all around, and especially for fair and consistent judging across all competitors. If that happens, I can ask for no more.