Betting the NFL: Winless pool will shrink in Week 3

Published 6:15 pm, Saturday, September 24, 2016

Quarterback Andrew Luck and the Colts will be looking for their first win of the season today against the Chargers.

Quarterback Andrew Luck and the Colts will be looking for their first win of the season today against the Chargers.

Photo: The Associated Press File Photo

Betting the NFL: Winless pool will shrink in Week 3

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As we enter Week 3, the early season has produced a certain level of mediocrity.

Coming out of Week 2, half the league (16 teams for those counting) are at .500 with a 1-1 record. Week 2 was the epitome of parity when with favorites and underdogs going 8-8 against the spread.

I’ve also been the victim of mediocrity. After going 7-8 ATS last week, I’m 15-15 overall — certainly not acceptable in the overall scheme of things.

With that said, there are still eight winless teams at 0-2. This is where my focus is in Week 3. Among those 0-2 teams there are five playing at home. I see four of those teams — Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Miami and New Orleans — getting their first wins and covering in the process.

The Jaguars entered this season with a lot of hype after improvements on both sides of the ball, but have been outscored 65-37 through two games. They host Baltimore today, a team that fell behind by 20 points to a weak Cleveland team last week and had to fight back to win by five points.

If the Ravens fall behind by 20 against the Jags, which they could, there won’t be a comeback this time.

The Colts were expected to be a rejuvenated team with a healthy Andrew Luck at quarterback. Then again, last week it was going to be tough anyway for the Colts facing Denver’s defense. Enter the San Diego Chargers this week missing two top offensive threats with receiver Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead on injured reserve. The Chargers will score, but the Colts will score more.

The Dolphins get a break in the schedule and host the Browns who are starting their third quarterback in three games. Miami isn’t a world beater either, but the Dolphins showed some effort in rallying late against New England last week and only losing by seven points. The 9.5 points are a lot to give the Browns, but their lack of offensive power should allow for a Miami cover.

On Monday, the Saints host the Atlanta Falcons. Facing the Falcons’ weak defense should allow Drew Brees & Co. to score early and often and cover the modest 3-point spread.

Today’s games

Denver at Cincinnati (-3): The defending Super Bowl champs and their top-rated defense getting points? I certainly can’t play the woman card here, but you can still DEAL ME IN. Nowak’s pick: Broncos 24-17.

Oakland at Tennessee (-1.5): The Raiders’ defense has been weak (69 points allowed). But the Raiders’ defense should do just enough to complement their offense for a cover. Nowak’s pick: Raiders 27-23.

Arizona at Buffalo (-4): The Bills are the one 0-2 team playing at home with a tough row to hoe. The Cardinals have outscored opponents 61-30 and the Bills have been outscored by opponents 50-38. Nowak’s pick: Cardinals 27-20.

Detroit at Green Bay (-7.5): The Packers don’t seem to be in a rhythm at all on offense and the Lions always seem to play Green Bay tough. Green Bay wins, Detroit covers. Nowak’s pick: Green Bay 27-24.

Minnesota at Carolina (-7): The Vikings have been the trendy pick among handicappers to cover this week due to their defense. While the Vikings might slow down the Panthers’ running game, I don’t see them having an answer to Carolina receiving phenom Kelvin Benjamin. Nowak’s pick: Carolina 24-14.

49ers at Seattle (-9.5): While the defense has done its job, the Seattle offense has been sputtering with quarterback Russell Wilson playing through a minor ankle injury. It’s the only excuse I can find to make sense of Seattle losing to the Rams last week. That embarrassing loss coupled with a healthier Wilson should get Seattle back on track. And oh yeah, the 49ers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine matchups with the Seahawks. Nowak’s pick: Seahawks 27-13.

Los Angeles at Tampa Bay (-5): Speaking of embarrassing losses, last week’s 40-7 loss to Arizona should have the Bucs whipped up enough to do the same to the Rams who have yet to score a TD this season. Nowak’s pick: Buccaneers 35-10.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (+3.5): Both teams are 2-0, but the Steelers should take no prisoners here. Watch for Pittsburgh running back DeAngelo Williams to dominate in his last scheduled stint as a starter with suspended Le’Veon Bell expected to return in Week 4. Nowak’s pick: Steelers 31-23.

Jets at Kansas City (-3): Tough pick here but the edge goes to the Chiefs and their defense playing at home. Nowak’s pick: Chiefs 27-20.

San Diego at Indianapolis (-3): See above. Nowak’s pick: 28-17.

Chicago at Dallas (-7): Quarterback Brian Hoyer, whose NFL player agent is Joe Linta of Branford, is expected to start in place of Bears starting QB Jay Cutler. While Hoyer should be able to produce some points, the Bears’ defense will allow more. Nowak’s pick: Cowboys 31-17.

Monday’s game

Atlanta at New Orleans (-3): See above. Nowak’s pick: 35-24.

Dan Nowak can be reached at dnowak@nhregister.com. Follow Dan on Twitter @NHRDanNowak.