Weather Report: Tom Skilling 7-Day Forecast WGN-TV Weather Center.

Snowfall this winter: Payback time or a snow `drought'?

September 05, 2005|By Tom Skilling

As meteorological autumn (September-November) begins, this area remains locked in drought after the driest meteorological summer (June-August) on record at Midway Airport (4.58" total rainfall) since records began in 1928. Brown lawns and shriveled plants dominate the landscape following a summer's worth of dry and often hot weather as wave after wave of approaching precipitation dissipated or changed course before reaching the city. Things appeared to be improving in August as rainfall frequency and amounts temporarily increased, but in the last few weeks the dry pattern has returned and no significant rain makers are in sight.

Summer dryness usually lasts into winter

Many Chicagoans have expressed concern that a winter of heavy snow will be Nature's payback for the dry summer. While that can't be ruled out, an analysis of winter snowfall following the city's driest summers overwhelmingly shows that subpar snow totals dominate. For the sake of comparison, an examination of the city's 10 wettest summers revealed that the snowfall following those summers was generally at or above normal, and included the exceptionally snowy winter of 1977-78, the city's second snowiest on record. Rather than meteorological payback, it seems to be more of the same: Dry summers tend to be followed by less snowy winters and wet summers by snowier ones.

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Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.