Business-backed Bradley Byrne wins in Alabama

The Republican establishment struck back on Tuesday, notching a win over a tea party candidate in a closely-watched special runoff election for an Alabama congressional seat.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Bradley Byrne, a staid former state senator, led Dean Young, a conservative real estate developer who likened himself to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent.

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Mike Allen analysis

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The two were running to succeed six-term former GOP Rep. Jo Bonner, who resigned from the Mobile-area 1st District seat in August. Byrne is expected to easily secure the conservative seat in the Dec. 17 general special election over nominal Democratic opposition.

In an election that came just weeks after a tea party-led government shutdown that scarred the Republican Party, the GOP establishment took a stand against Young, who applauded the shutdown, vowed that he wouldn’t support John Boehner as speaker and said he believed President Barack Obama was born in Kenya.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent around $200,000 on Byrne’s behalf, and Ending Spending, an outside group bankrolled by TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, spent around $75,000 on TV and ads boosting him. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy sent checks to Byrne, as did dozens of Washington-based political action committees.

In the end, Byrne outraised Young more than two-to-one. While Byrne and his allies dominated the TV airwaves, Young was forced to rely on a grass-roots-style campaign.

In a deep-red district where Mitt Romney received 62 percent of the vote, the concern among many establishment Republicans was that Young — — through his harsh rhetoric and bomb-throwing – would be ideally situated to appeal to the conservative voters who would be the most motivated to vote in a low-turnout special election. As recently as last week, polling showed Young in a neck-and-neck race.

While Young promised to be an outspoken conservative in the House – he was quoted at one point as saying that if he wins people should get “a big ole thing of popcorn and a Big Super Gulp and lean back and turn on C-SPAN” – Byrne warned that his opponent’s style would embarrass the GOP.

Conservative outside groups like the anti-tax Club for Growth have used Republican primaries to boost insurgent candidates, sometimes against sitting incumbents, with the goal of steering the GOP’s congressional wing further to the right.

But after the shutdown, establishment Republicans say they’re increasingly likely to invest in primaries, too. And the Alabama race – pitting a business-friendly former state legislator and flame-throwing tea party figure – was a perfect playground.

“It’s become plainly obvious that staying out of primaries is not a good strategy. You have to play aggressively,” said David French, the chief lobbyist for the National Retail Federation. “I think you’re going to see more of that in the 2014 cycle.”

“We’re in this for the long haul,” he said, “and we’re looking for ways that we can be more effective in the future.”

For now, the question is just how big the pro-business congressional battleground will be – and whether the Alabama win will encourage groups like the Chamber to expand their target list. Business organizations have so far said they want to prop up Pennsylvania Rep. Bill Shuster and Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson, both of whom are facing primaries from conservative insurgents.

And a few tea party-styled incumbents, including Michigan Reps. Justin Amash and Kerry Bentivolio, are trying to fend off challengers who have attracted support from the business community.

Blair Latoff Holmes, a Chamber of Commerce spokeswoman, said the group hadn’t yet firmed up its 2014 primary plans but made it clear it was interested in playing in Republican races.

“Our support will be predicated on where the candidates stand on a broad range of issues that are important to the business community,” she said in an email. “We do see an increasing need to stand up early for candidates that understand the principles of free enterprise and are willing to address the biggest issues impacting our economy, like jobs and growth.”

Aside from the outpouring of pro-business cash, Young faced other challenges. Among them: How to win as a brash, hard-charging candidate in a district that’s been known for electing statesmanlike figures, such as Bonner and ex-Rep. Sonny Callahan, both of whom enjoyed close relationships with Mobile’s business community. Bonner, who survived a 2012 primary challenge from Young, provided Byrne with an endorsement.

And with voters from either party allowed to vote in the primary, there was the possibility that Democrats – repelled by Young – could vote for Byrne.