2019 certain to be unpredictable in complex Middle East

'Russia now has firm links with Israel and Iran, making it the only super-power that's tied to all players in the region.'

This abandoned university in the town of Mukalla, Yemen, has become home to thousands of Somali refugees and displaced Yemenis, caught up in the conflict that has engulfed Yemen since early 2015. (Voice of America)

Just like any other year in the Middle East, 2019 will be characterized by its lack of predictability, which makes estimating what will happen inherently difficult. Looking back on the history of the region: the best minds in Israel failed to prepare for the 1973 Arab-Israeli War; not one intelligence service thought the shah of Iran would fall when he did; and the Arab Spring surprised even local despots. Even so, the year’s older sibling has given us some pointers.

Donald Trump’s bizarre decision to withdraw all 2,000 U.S. troops remaining in Syria was a colossally significant and dangerous move. It was said by some that this would allow the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to re-mobilize. While that may be partly true, the “caliphate” was always a chimera, and, once those countries that hypocritically claimed to be opposed to ISIL — Saudi Arabia and Turkey — stopped allowing them to have weapons, or even to directly supply them with arms, that conflict was largely finished.

Never look for answers by analyzing arms supplies; it’s a mess. Turkey, for example, is armed by Britain and the U.S., yet sells weapons to both countries’ enemies in the region. Israel armed Iran during the Iraq War, even though Tehran has long been Israel’s most dedicated opponent. Combine Machiavellian notions of power and influence unique to the Middle East with the usual gruesome levels of amorality found among arms dealers, and the answers might become more apparent.

The real concern with the Americans leaving Syria is that the Kurds, long the most faithful allies of the West in the area — and the most successful military campaigners against ISIL — have been completely abandoned to the Turks. Syria itself has no animus against the Kurds, but Turkey has long persecuted and slaughtered the Kurdish people, and sees the small semi-state established by them in Syria as a direct threat to Turkey. They have promised to invade and kill, and almost certainly will.

The Kurds are well-armed and well-trained, have a working relationship with Israel, and have several ISIL prisoners whom they’ve threatened to release if Turkey attacks. In that ISIL can now only operate through individual acts of terror, this, and the entire situation, is deeply worrying.

Iran is the other power in Syria, and it, too, wants the Kurds silenced or destroyed, which leaves the Kurds, and what friends they have in Syria, in a precarious place. More than this, other countries and peoples are watching how the Kurds were jettisoned by their American allies, and have drawn all sorts of conclusions about whom to trust. And the major power that seems the most trustworthy is Russia.

Whatever we in the West may think, Russia has a reputation of sticking by its friends. Moscow began a close alliance with Syria in 1946, established a vital naval base there in 1971, and, whatever the regime in Damascus — and whether the Kremlin is Soviet or post-Communist — the unbending support continues. Yet it goes further. Russia now has firm links with Israel and Iran, as well, making it the only super-power that’s tied to all players in the region. The U.S. is being increasingly ostracized due to its erratic policies, and even its traditional friends no longer have complete trust.

Israel is soon to elect another government, but it’s likely to be very similar to the old one. Never before has the country faced more criticism in the West, and never before has it had so many friends in the neighbourhood. Jordan has a peace treaty, but no affection. Jordan, however, is militarily and economically irrelevant to the equation. Egypt has never been closer, much of North Africa is moderating its policies, and the Gulf nations, led by Saudi Arabia, are lining up to establish full diplomatic links with the Jewish state. This is truly revolutionary.

The game-changer, of course, is Iran. Many Sunni Arabs see the Persian Shia regime as far more of a problem than Israel, whom they often secretly admire, and the Palestinians, whom they often secretly wish would just disappear. Ironically, Iran’s manic militancy brings Israel and many Arab states ever closer.

As always, Tehran will likely react to this by ordering Hezbollah in Lebanon to cause more trouble in northern Israel, and even force war. The Israelis have already destroyed or flooded several Hezbollah tunnels intended for such a purpose. If there is a conflict, or if Hamas does launch more missiles from Gaza, the Israeli response will likely be far greater than in the past. But, just as in the past, the Arab world will say a little and do less.

More countries will name Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the war in Yemen will continue, because it’s seen as a vicarious fight between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Palestinians’ wretched situation will remain as it is, and Turkey will continue seeking atavistic glories until the West genuinely exposes it for its arrest of journalists, occupation of foreign lands, and killing of opponents.

2019, just another year in the Middle East.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

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Michael Coren is a columnist and political commentator and the author of fourteen books. His most recent book is Epiphany: A Christian’s Change of Heart & Mind over Same-Sex Marriage. [email protected]