1) In Control: An episode before the finale and eight castaways were still standing. Matt, Mike, Andrea, Grant in Redemption Island and Boston Rob, Phillip, Natalie, Ashley in Murlonio camp. And, only one person who is in control. That’s B-O-S-T-O-N R-O-B! It’s uncertain why Natalie, Ashley, Phillip and Grant did not vote against or blindside him when he’s not wearing an immunity necklace. It could have been the right time. It could have been the right moment but those four completely blew their chances and they only grant Boston Rob the one million dollars. Don’t they know Rob will be their biggest competition for the title? Didn’t they watch the past seasons of the show? Or, were they playing a game without any strategy at all?

On the other hand, I also don’t know if it will be a guarantee for someone who’s in Redemption Island to secure a spot in the final three. Of course, that someone will immediately be on a chopping board. Boston Rob, Phillip, Natalie and Ashley will be 100% threatened by him or her. To be honest, it’s not a good entertainment to see someone returning in the game and be voted out just because he or she does not win immunity.

Perhaps, it’s not only a question of who deserves to return in the game but will the most deserving player return in the game and has the ability to handle pressure well?

2) No Control: It’s disappointing to see Grant got eliminated without a good fight. That was not a blindside at all. He knew it after Ashley won the immunity challenge. I just don’t know if he’s well-aware if he could have orchestrated a plan to oust Boston Rob, his chances of winning is high. However, there’s still 50-50 chance for Grant to return and if he’ll be the last man standing and convincingly beat Matt, Mike and Andrea in the last four-person-duel, that spells trouble for Boston Rob. He’ll probably end up as a runner-up again.

3) Who’ll Win Survivor Redemption Island?: Boston Rob deserves to win. That’s given. I have said it in my previous posts multiple times. His chances of winning is 80% even if he’ll not win the final immunity challenge. There are only two reasons why Boston Rob will not be the sole survivor. It is either Mike or Grant returns and be in the final three. That brings me to the other sure player to win – Mike (100% winning chances). He’s one of the most well-rounded players in history to play this game (but also one of the biggest threat), even Boston Rob is completely aware of that. The only reason why Mike did not last long was because he’s outnumbered. Grant or Andrea is the third deserving player to win this game. Both of them are likeable. If they can give a valid reason why the jury should vote for them, they can win. Winning chances: 60%.

Matt is primarily a “best dueler of the season,” not the sole survivor. To be called the “deserving” sole survivor, he or she has outwitted, outplayed and outlasted other competitors. The sole survivor understands why and how to begin playing a game with a group and he or she can easily rearrange his or her gameplan when it’s an individual game. Looking back, Matt got the boot in day six, won six duels in a row and came back during the merge. This was his moment to fight and to create an important decision to stay longer. Just one decision and he would have been safe. However, he wasted all his chances and allowed his vulnerability to devour him. Boston Rob did not vote him out. It was Matt himself who “silently” told the group to vote against him for the second time. Winning Chances: 51% “just because he’s the underdog”

Natalie, Ashley, Phillip are somehow on the same board in different rooms (49% winning chances). Natalie started strong by winning the first individual immunity during the merge but her gameplan went south by relying too much on Boston Rob. Ashley is not my bet at all from the beginning but I seem to think she’ll be the dark horse. By winning the immunity challenge before a finale episode was not simply a luck. She worked hard to win the challenge and she knew she needed it. She can convince the jury why to vote for her should she make the final three, but it’s inevitable for many viewers to label her as “forgetful.” As for Phillip, he’s the star of the season and I seem to think all his plans of becoming “an annoying specialist” might be rewarded.

Post navigation

I think if Matt or Mike make their way back and subsequently make the final 3, then who ever it is should win the money. All the former Zapatera’s are going to vote Mike and if it is Matt, well he is the sympathy vote of this season. But like you said, he has not outwitted, or outplayed anyone. If there was no redemption Island this season, he’d be nothing but just another early boot.
The competition just got harder on Redemption by Grant joining the other three, so it’ll be interesting.
I agree Rob deserves to win, he has dominated and dictated this game from Day 1, no one at no time has challenged his leadership. He was the only one thinking end game from Day 1 also.
Natalie, I am afraid has a great chance of winning, for the same reason her namesake won in Samoa, which will be unfortunate.
Phillip will have an extreme hard time to convince anyone that his crazy strategy, was indeed that.
Ashley can still make it, but that also would be disastrous, she’s done nothing all season, sure she won a challenge, pretty pathetic one by Survivor standards but it gave her a few more days.
I guess we’ll see this time in a few days.

Thanks for commenting Rob! To me, only two players “really” deserve to win. That’s Boston Rob and Mike. If Matt wins because he’s underdog, I’ll be disappointed. Just to be fair, I should wait for his argument should he’ll make the final three. Perhaps, he’s up for something unexpected and I’ll be convinced to call him a “deserving sole survivor.”

Rob Beasley said it all. there’s not much for me to say. but I honestly feel that Matt deserves to win too. Might not be the path of all previous winners but he fought hard to stay in the game and that is very admirable knowing so many players give up easily when it’s an opportunity to change their lives.

I think the only person who deserves to win this season is Rob. I felt Grant was blindsided. I don’t think he went into that tribal thinking Rob was going to get rid of him. It’s going to get a little more interesting now I think. Who ever comes back from Redemption will be a major threat. I don’t think Rob was using his head when he got rid of Grant. Like he said a pair is a strong alliance and keeping Ashley and Natalie together was the wrong move. It probably won’t really have much of an effect though. I feel Rob has a better chance to win every day. It doesn’t seem like any one is carrying any emotional problems. Can’t wait for the finale.

Boston Rob made a good decision by voting out Grant. He can’t win against Grant. Grant knew that fact too and i was disappointed with for not making any Plan B or C to save himself. For this, Rob’s next priority should break that bond between Ashley and Natalie, or else, Ashley might win.

This season is starting to bore me because it is like a novel wherein the producers are trying to build up tension and yet it has taken so long for the climax to happen, or it might never happen at all. I am disappointed and this is what I am initially against at when they introduced that Rob and Russ are returning this season. These are stupid players, and I can’t seem to understand why they aren’t doing anything to better their position in the game. If only Zapatera still had numbers going into the merge, then we wouldn’t have had to deal with the stupid Ometepes and watch the game slip right through their hands. It’s devastating for me how the better players, such as Mike is in Redemption Island.

@Abby, It’s sad to read you’re giving up on the show that started it all. Though, before saying bye-bye to the show for good, do not forget the current season is just a part of what the show is all about, it’s not the whole. I know Redemption Island sucks and inviting past players such as Rob and Russel sucks but you know what, I rather watch a sucky season of Survivor than nothing at all.