Gallup and Rasmussen agree: Consumer confidence plunging in June

posted at 1:21 pm on June 26, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

And it’s not as if it was all that terrific before now, either. Gallup’s weekly survey of consumer confidence shows a steep 10-point drop from -16 at the end of May to -26 today:

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index was -26 for the week ending June 24, down slightly from -24 the week before. Americans’ confidence has now receded for four straight weeks, and is at the lowest point since late January.

U.S. economic confidence last week was hardest hit June 19-21, when it fell to -28, but it bounced back to -25 over the weekend. The midweek slide may have resulted from the anticipated Moody’s downgrade of several major banks and one of the worst trading days of the year on Thursday. However, the market rallied back on Friday, which may have led to the weekend improvement in confidence.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index consists of two measures — one assessing current economic conditions and the other assessing the nation’s economic outlook. Americans’ perceptions of current economic conditions worsened to -31, down four from the previous week, with 44% saying the economy is poor and 13% saying it is excellent or good. Attitudes about the economic outlook were down marginally last week, at -21.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, held steady on Tuesday at 81.2 after falling to its lowest level since January Sunday. The Consumer Index shows little change from a week ago but is down 12 points from a month ago and three months ago.

Today’s level of confidence is 16 points below the 2012 high water mark and is just two points above the lowest level of this year.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of consumers rate their personal finances as good or excellent while 23% rate them as poor.

Their current level is also ten points below their May rating. The results of both polls show a growing discontent with the economy and fear of its future — a bad sign for an incumbent President standing for re-election in four months. Unless consumer sentiment reverses soon, these indexes indicate that Americans will take a decidedly negative view of Obama’s economy into the voting booth with them.

They may be helped along with that evaluation by the Obama administration itself. CNN reports that the USDA is now advertising to get people to enroll in the food-stamp program:

More than one in seven Americans are on food stamps, but the federal government wants even more people to sign up for the safety net program.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has been running radio ads for the past four months encouraging those eligible to enroll. The campaign is targeted at the elderly, working poor, the unemployed and Hispanics.

The department is spending between $2.5 million and $3 million on paid spots, and free public service announcements are also airing. The campaign can be heard in California, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, and the New York metro area.

Well, with that kind of messaging, small wonder consumers think the economy is getting worse. After all, it’s not as if hardly anyone is on food assistance these days, or that those numbers are growing smaller. Even without advertising, enrollment in the food-stamp program has exploded and continues to rise, Veronique de Rugy explains at Mercatus Center:

While the weak economy has played a role in the increase of food-stamp spending, this factor only tells part of the story. Food-stamp enrollment increased, and spending doubled, as unemployment and the poverty level dropped modestly between 2007 and 2011.

In the end, nothing changes the program participation and its costs more permanently than changes to food-stamp legislation. Both the Bush and Obama administrations expanded eligibility through the 2002 and 2008 farm bills and the 2009 stimulus bill. As the data show, spending after changes in eligibility grew by $169 billion between 2002 and 2007 and by $235 billion between 2008 and 2011.

De Rugy includes this helpful chart:

The last eligibility changes came in 2009, with the stimulus bill that was supposed to keep unemployment below 8%. One need only look at the final two years of this chart to gauge its success. Assistance continues to increase throughout this “recovery,” as Obamanomics produces a jobless stagnation rather than economic growth. Consumer confidence measure simply reflect the reality of American life in the third “Recovery Summer.”

More than one in seven Americans are on food stamps, but the federal government wants even more people to sign up for the safety net program. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has been running radio ads for the past four months encouraging those eligible to enroll. The campaign is targeted at the elderly, working poor, the unemployed and Hispanics.

Yeah, but remember that it’s racist to call Obama the “food stamp President”. And how subtle with those groups being targeted by the ads. No, no electoral pandering at all going on here.

The Conference Board number came in lighter than expected (62 vs. 64 exp.), but this is not unusual given the slowdown. Other news this week has been mixed – manufacturing slowdowns in some parts of the country (but not others – Texas is doing well), and some good news on housing seems to have buoyed the markets today after yesterday’s sell-off. The main concern continues to be Europe, and how the slowdown there will impact us.

I think consumer confidence is plunging because the American people realize that nothing much is going to change regardless of whether Obama or Romney wins the election. Neither one of them has real solutions to the very real, core problems America faces. They spend all their time arguing about how to cope with the side affects of the core problems their parties have created and compete to buy special interest votes with promises to of handouts and favors, but neither of them will confront the core problems because it would require that they give us our freedom and liberty back and stop spending money they don’t have, stealing it from the future. The way for America to get better is to go back to the way America was when it was a good and prosperous nation and stop heading down the road to tyranny where both parties lead.

I think consumer confidence is plunging because the American people realize that nothing much is going to change regardless of whether Obama or Romney wins the election. Neither one of them has real solutions to the very real, core problems America faces. They spend all their time arguing about how to cope with the side affects of the core problems their parties have created and compete to buy special interest votes with promises to of handouts and favors, but neither of them will confront the core problems because it would require that they give us our freedom and liberty back and stop spending money they don’t have, stealing it from the future. The way for America to get better is to go back to the way America was when it was a good and prosperous nation and stop heading down the road to tyranny where both parties lead.

FloatingRock on June 26, 2012 at 1:40 PM

****the recovery begins immediately after Obama is defeated in November (if).

Just like it did in the same month after Bush 41 lost in 1992 (he had no plan to end the recession, etc.).

Assistance continues to increase throughout this “recovery,” as Obamanomics produces a jobless stagnation rather than economic growth.

The two are wildly out of sync with each other. Foodstamps is vastly outpacing the growth of unemployment.

What is happening here is quite simple. People are pissed off, recognize that the Regime is economically hopeless, and are taking a free ride on food stamps.

It would be interesting if HA added Disability Benefit claims into this graph. They have also spiked. And I know of a few people who are able to work who are claiming it. Could they work? Yes. Will they take a job paying say $15 an hour. No way, that is beneath them.

The formula for paying DA is related to past earnings. These people made far more than average. In lieu of the right (6 figures baseline here) job, they’ll take the DA. They’ve ‘earned’ it.

This is an unintended consequence of socialism. These people are not going to vote Democrat, but they have few scruples and will take advantage of the system.

An extreme, and hopefully rare couple of examples but you can be goddamned sure 1 in 7 Americans don’t need food stamps. The model scales.

This is very bad news. An additional 20 plus million people now have a taste of free money from the government. That’s the whole point of every bad move Obama makes on the economy. It’s on purpose to get a permanent 51% voting majority underclass addicted to government subsidies. It’s really all about Democrats trying to by themselves electoral immortality.

How did a socialist get elected in France? Simple, the takers outnumber the producers.

Does anyone really see testicles on the GOP big enough to reverse this?

****the recovery begins immediately after Obama is defeated in November (if).

Just like it did in the same month after Bush 41 lost in 1992 (he had no plan to end the recession, etc.).

PappyD61 on June 26, 2012 at 1:43 PM

I wish, but the truth is that America has systemic problems that started before Obama was elected and although Obama is also to blame, so are the Republicans. More of the same isn’t going to fix our problems.

The only way there might be a recovery is if we elect a true reformer like Gary Johnson we finally start to fix the core problems caused by Democrats and Republicans.

I wish, but the truth is that America has systemic problems that started before Obama was elected and although Obama is also to blame, so are the Republicans. More of the same isn’t going to fix our problems.

The only way there might be a recovery is if we elect a true reformer like Gary Johnson we finally start to fix the core problems caused by Democrats and Republicans.

FloatingRock on June 26, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Couldn’t agree more re: the Republicans. They’ve spent money like drunk sailors on shore-leave, for far too long. Starting with H.W. Bush, I’ve felt like a Conservative without a Party.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has been running radio ads for the past four months encouraging those eligible to enroll. The campaign is targeted at the elderly, working poor, the unemployed and Hispanics.
The department is spending between $2.5 million and $3 million on paid spots, and free public service announcements are also airing. The campaign can be heard in California, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, and the New York metro area.

I live in Connecticut, and hear these ads frequently out of WABC-AM in NYC, which allows me to listen to Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Marc Levin, etc.

In the ads, one elderly-sounding lady is telling another about how important it is to stay healthy, and eat nutritious meals, and feed the grandkids, and how you never know who else might use food stamps to get them, ha, ha, ha, ain’t that sweet!

Your taxpayer dollars at work, encouraging people to go on food stamps and take more of your taxpayer dollars for free lunches and dinners!

That’s why USDA won’t release any data showing where the money goes – because a lot of little stores who haven’t bought anywhere near the amount of total food inventory to cover their redemptions are among the top recipients. How is this possible? They are laundering the benefits into cash.

I feel for every able bodied person who has to go on food stamps. my husband walked out on me and my kids, I wasn’t able to find a job for almost a year. During that time, my kids were on free lunch for the first time ever.
WHen I finally found work (that paid enough so I could hire a babysitter), I had absolutely NO problem getting off that assistance.

I know that most people would rather have jobs than food stamps. This ain’t no joyride.

****the recovery begins immediately after Obama is defeated in November (if).

Just like it did in the same month after Bush 41 lost in 1992 (he had no plan to end the recession, etc.).

PappyD61 on June 26, 2012 at 1:43 PM

In reality, the Democrat Media themselves got Clenis elected in 1992.

How?

In March of 1991, the Fed released statistics showing that the economic recovery had started. That was 18 months before the 1992 election. Subsequent Fed stats confirmed that the recovery had in fact begun in March of 1991.

But the Democrat Media never reported it. As a result, Clinton’s “It’s the Economy, Stupid” Lie was believed by the majority of Americans.

By the way, the Democrat Media, in the guise of the New York Times, finally did get around to admitting that said recovery did in fac begin in March of 1991.

But they didn’t get around to mentioning it until…1999. When in a NYT editorial, they said that the fact that the recovery began in March of ’91 was…”unrecognized at the time.”

Try “unreported at the time.”

Joe Stalin and Dr. Goebbels would definitely approve of what they did.

USDA is now advertising to get people to enroll in the food-stamp program

Brewing scandal in Kalifornia. After 9/11 the state set up a special license plate, the funding to go to the college education of children of 9/11 victims, the rest to law enforcement for ‘terrorism’. Millions collected, yet a paltry sum paid out to survivors of victims. Many have complained they were never made aware of the program. The state says ‘we sent letters’.

YET a day doesn’t go by that I don’t see or hear a commercial about getting a CALFRESH card! YES! You can qualify for a WELFARE card! YES! You can own a car! You can own your own home! You can have a bank account! AND STILL YOU QUALIFY!

I’ll never forget seeing a woman, in her 20s, at the grocery store. She paid for her groceries [and there wasn’t very much] with what was, obvioulsy, some form of public assistance voucher, and she looked beaten-down and humiliated.

I’ll never forget seeing a woman, in her 20s, at the grocery store. She paid for her groceries [and there wasn’t very much] with what was, obvioulsy, some form of public assistance voucher, and she looked beaten-down and humiliated.

I know there are a lot of people who use the stamps because they are truly desperate but there’s also a lot of people who get them just cause. I was behind someone in the check out line the other day and the cashier had to separate their items between those covered and those that aren’t. The purchaser then paid with a wade of cash for the remainder. Don’t know anything about the person except that I’m helping them buy groceries. She looked healthy and able to work. There are jobs in our town. Just sayin’.