The president’s approval rating has edged up three points from last month and is up six points from November. The last time Obama’s approval rating was at 50% or above was last May, as a result of the killing of Osama bin Laden, and it stayed there for about a month before fading…

The survey suggests that the contentious Republican primary season has decreased enthusiasm among Republican voters, virtually erasing the “enthusiasm gap” that promised to provide the ultimate GOP presidential nominee with a major advantage in the fall. In October, 64% of Republicans said that they were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president, compared to only 43% of Democratic voters. GOP enthusiasm since that time has tumbled 13 points, to 51%, virtually the same as the Democrats’ level of enthusiasm.

Back in October, the field was still huge and we were proceeding apace through the “anyone can win” wheel o’ frontrunners. Three months later, when the January poll was taken, Romney had just won New Hampshire (and Iowa, we thought at the time) so the race suddenly felt like a foregone conclusion. A month later the race is unsettled again, but it’s nastier than ever and no one’s thrilled with their options. I wonder what the numbers look like next month if we get another good jobs report and if the vote splits three ways on Super Tuesday.

Beyond that, Ron Brownstein of National Journal noted yesterday that Obama’s numbers head to head against Romney across various demographics are starting to look a lot like his numbers against McCain four years ago, a sign that the disgruntled Hopenchange coalition might be piecing itself back together. Of special note: The One does six points better against Romney among white women voters than he did against McCain in 2008, and bear in mind that Romney is the stronger of the two top Republican candidates among women right now. He leads Santorum in that demographic by nine points, which is nothing new for RS: He lost women in his 2000 Senate victory and got clobbered among women in his landslide defeat to Bob Casey in 2006. Gonna be a lot of gender politics, starting with his old comments about contraception being “harmful to women,” in the general election if he’s the nominee.

On the other hand:

Romney and Gingrich are perceived as candidates of the rich whereas Santorum is seen as more blue-collar. But even as between Mitt and Newt, there’s a distinction. When tea partiers are asked whether Gingrich favors the rich or the middle class, they split 35/53. (Santorum’s split is 15/65.) When they’re asked about Romney, though, behold:

If even a majority of core conservative voters thinks one of the GOP’s candidates is biased towards the rich then Team Hopenchange clearly has very fertile populist ground on which to attack him in the general. For further reading on that, I’ll leave you with this Nate Silver piece provocatively titled, “Why Obama Will Embrace the 99 Percent.” In key swing states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Indiana, there are enough working-class white voters to make a big difference to Obama’s margin against Romney if he can exploit perceptions that Mitt’s in the pocket of the, ahem, “one percent.” Santorum would be much tougher for him to beat on that point — but of course, potentially much easier for him to beat among women. Who’s more electable ultimately?

These swing states fall into three regional tiers. The Rocky Mountain tier includes Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. The Rust Belt tier includes Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And the Dixie tier includes North Carolina, Florida and Virginia.

Across these states, Santorum performs about as well as Romney in matchups with the president.

The swing-state voters back Obama over Romney by 8 percentage points and Santorum by 9 points.

Note: Obama does trail in certain individual swing states. In Ohio, Romney leads him by six and Santorum leads him by three.

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For all of you who were clamoring for a vicious spectacle at the debates and in the primary in general to assuage your craving for spectacle… THIS…is the reason the rest of us said that we needed to rally around the most electable candidate and get this primary over with as quickly as possible.

I’ll vote for Romney or Gingrich. However I’ll vote for Obama if Santorum is the nominee, because not only would I want to see Santorum lose the election, I want to see him get pulverized (metaphorically, of course). I’ll still vote straight GOP in the down ticket.

Actually, my friends that consider themselves libertarian leaning, but almost always vote Republican because they are fiscal cons, have said the same thing. It makes sense. He comes across very much like a latter day Jimmy Carter, with that same preachy, holier than thou attitude.

I’ve said that repeatedly, as have most all of the Romney backers here, as far as I can see. Its the ABR’s who are constantly declaring that they’ll stay home, go 3rd party or vote for Obama if Mitt is the nominee.

Nope, thphilli and a bunch were writing just today they’ll actually vote for President Obama instead, so it’s not mostly anybody. I’m glad you will though.

And you’ll never win without your base either. Most parties shore their base before they go after their undecideds. The Republican Party deserves to lose the Conservative base of it’s own party. I’ve left. I’ll vote for the Republican, but I learned a long time ago that Republicans only needs my vote. They don’t need me.

If the sheeple perceive that the economy is improving he’ll get re-elected in a landslide. The media will do their best to insure that is the perception regardless of the reality. I have accepted the fact that we’ll have a second Omamao regime, but I wonder if the country will survive 4 years of it. On a totally unrelated note I’m sure; ammo and gun sales are at record levels since this tool was elected…

Hopefully, this is the choice I’ll get, because I’d hate to have to spend emotional capital for a losing effort (i.e. Romney or Gingrich). At least with Santorum as the nominee I’ll be able to enjoy the shellacking he’ll get.

Actually, my friends that consider themselves libertarian leaning, but almost always vote Republican because they are fiscal cons, have said the same thing. It makes sense. He comes across very much like a latter day Jimmy Carter, with that same preachy, holier than thou attitude.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Actually it makes no sense unless you are a religious bigot. Rick Santorum has said that states have the right to make public policy. Obama will use the federal government to push his agenda. Atleast with Rick’s view, you can move.

The poll numbers simply reveal how badly the Republican brand has been damaged during the primary process. When people see that the best the party can do is put up a series of extremists, bozos and extremist bozos, they come correctly to the conclusion that republicans have nothing to offer.

The country is changing fast. Gay marriage is mostly mainstream in about ten years after VT did civil unions. Marriage rates are declining fast. And now white kids are a minority for the under two year olds (not a bad thing). Santorum can make his case to the working class/middle class in a one attempt to halt Obama. However, if we don’t win in 2012, the GOP will need to look different to win in 2016. The American public has now shown it’ll vote for socialism lite.

Run back to Huffinton and spew your lies and distortions there. Your statement is utter nonsense, 2010 proves we have the power to take WH, Senate and hold the House. Santorum or Romney, it doesn’t matter, Obama is done as he cannot defend his record.

The people writing here are not idiots, the primary is basically a political Thunderdome and Romney started the blistering negative attacks. That sort of behavior is supposed to scare independants and moderates away or so I hear. Once the nominee is chosen the real contest will begin.

Come fall, when normal people (not we happy few at HA) start paying attention, the MSM will make sure the choice is framed thus:

Hey Mr.& Mrs America, do you want to keep our Cool, Black (if somewhat flawed) President or do you want to replace him with one of these goofy dudes from Squaresville, with their weird-ass religion to boot?

No, we didn’t think you would either.

The smart play now is for Congress, and that’s a 50/50 proposition at best.

Meanwhile, Fox News says O is up against everyone in a broad regional poll of swing states. Dude, I’m nervous.—AllahPundit

That is so funny and so transparent. You and your ilk attacking the only electable republican candidate and now you are pretending to be nervous. You are celebrating and the smarter of us know it.

Did you hear about the KOS kids doing an operation kaos voting for Santorum….anything to screw up Romney so he wont win the nomination and beat Obama. They know the other candidates are softballs for Obama to hit out of the park.

Your point being that we can lose moderates, independents and fiscal cons, as long as the evangelical base is satisfied? Your point is not well taken. Romney has done everything he could to reassure the base. They have been turned against him by the constant drumbeat of the conservative media saying that he is not a conservative, when, in fact, he is. It’s ignorance, stupidity and groupthink, as far as I can see.

Plus, if you think “knucklehead” is a big insult, you must not be reading most of the posts I’m reading.

Your point being that we can lose moderates, independents and fiscal cons, as long as the evangelical base is satisfied? Your point is not well taken. Romney has done everything he could to reassure the base. They have been turned against him by the constant drumbeat of the conservative media saying that he is not a conservative, when, in fact, he is. It’s ignorance, stupidity and groupthink, as far as I can see.

Plus, if you think “knucklehead” is a big insult, you must not be reading most of the posts I’m reading.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Speaking for myself, as someone who isn’t particularly thrilled by your candidate of choice it’s a little offensive when I’m alternately labeled as easily misled, ignorant, stupid, and dependent on others for my thoughts.

Stop being so arrogant and at least give people some credit for taking a principled stand based on what they believe.

“Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.” ~ Maj. Genl. US Grant

“Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.” ~ Maj. Genl. US Grant

“Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.” ~ Maj. Genl. US Grant

2010 proves we have the power to take WH, Senate and hold the House. Santorum or Romney, it doesn’t matter, Obama is done as he cannot defend his record.

Puhleeze. 2010 was a very different story. In 2010, the GOP was united, energized by the Tea Party, which, at that time was focused on taxes and fiscal conservatism. Since then, the party has been split into those who believe that it will be easy to defeat Obama, and those who believe it will take every bit of unity and focus and then some to get him out.

In 2010, I attended TP rallies, worked to support GOP candidates and felt pretty optimistic about our chance in 2012. No more.

Your point being that we can lose moderates, independents and fiscal cons, as long as the evangelical base is satisfied?

I will take this one.. If we lose even fiscal cons to Obama then y’all deserve what you get. For months, I have heard social issues don’t matter in this election. Apparently that only applies if the candidate shares your social agenda. If he doesn’t, suddenly they matter immensely.

Even if you believe that Rick Santorum is a theocrat; at least he wants his positions pushed on a STATE level. Obama’s agenda is done on a FEDERAL level. It is soft religious bigotry plain and simple, and makes you all sound like you are “social issue” voters as well as cons. You would vote against your fiscal issues because a candidate doesn’t share you social issue views. Who exactly is the social issue voter here?

Reagan had the Carter economy to run against. If the economy under Obama starts heading in the right direction, it will be game over.

cd98 on February 15, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Reagan didn’t just win, though. He won 44 states. Jimmy Carter wouldn’t have won if the unemployment rate had shifted a few tenths of a percent. He would have lost less badly.

Regardless, Obama has – through his own policies – made it almost impossible for him to be saved by an economic turnaround. His refusal to expand the oil supply in favor of green boondoggles; his cash-for-clunkers housing policy; his saddling employers with Obamacare; his running the debt up well over 16 trillion by election day; the discouraged unemployed coming back to the market in an upturn and driving the U3 rate back up; and finally, the fact that much of the stock gains are in anticipation of his losing and will quickly reverse if it looks like he could win…all these things are landmines he planted for himself in his own path, that must be triggered in the course of any economic turnaround.

“Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.” ~ Maj. Genl. US Grant

Stop being so arrogant and at least give people some credit for taking a principled stand based on what they believe.

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 8:30 PM

I am not arrogant. But I have an opinion, and I’m pretty damn sick of the people here who attack everyone who takes a stand for winning the election as the top priority right now.

That said, I don’t have a problem with taking a principled stand, as long as it is based on actual principles. But when I see people flitting from one candidate to another, not having even a clue of what they really stand for or what they have done in the past, as long as they call themselves “conservatives” and bash Romney, I have difficulty taking them seriously.

Puhleeze. 2010 was a very different story. In 2010, the GOP was united, energized by the Tea Party, which, at that time was focused on taxes and fiscal conservatism. Since then, the party has been split into those who believe that it will be easy to defeat Obama, and those who believe it will take every bit of unity and focus and then some to get him out.

In 2010, I attended TP rallies, worked to support GOP candidates and felt pretty optimistic about our chance in 2012. No more.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Then, sincerely, maybe you should take some time out and get your mind right. You’re dumping a lot of cold water on at least half the base right now.

The Republican Party deserves to lose the Conservative base of it’s own party. I’ve left. I’ll vote for the Republican, but I learned a long time ago that Republicans only needs my vote. They don’t need me.hawkdriver on February 15, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Regardless, Obama has – through his own policies – made it almost impossible for him to be saved by an economic turnaround. His refusal to expand the oil supply in favor of green boondoggles; his cash-for-clunkers housing policy; his saddling employers with Obamacare; his running the debt up well over 16 trillion by election day; the discouraged unemployed coming back to the market in an upturn and driving the U3 rate back up; and finally, the fact that much of the stock gains are in anticipation of his losing and will quickly reverse if it looks like he could win…all these things are landmines he planted for himself in his own path, that must be triggered in the course of any economic turnaround.

HitNRun on February 15, 2012 at 8:37 PM

That one will require us to overcome all of O’bozo’s free positive press.

Oh for heaven’s sake, get a grip people. Gas will be $4-5 per gallon this summer. It’s already $3.85 here in upstate NY. In February. After people have escaped this mild winter with relatively low heating bills, they are going to get socked again at the pump and there is no way that Obama’s numbers don’t go south fast when that happens. This is a lull in the storm.

Are you joking???
Just think about the books Mark Levin will sell talking about how America is going to hell in a handbasket. He might get that 3rd home out of it.
Just think about Rush Limbo’s ratings? He may start working only 1 day a week.
Think about the Palin facebook posts that somebody writes for her. She will be so wanted with her very incisive points of view on what is wrong with the democrats.
The business of destroying the party is a lucrative business.Jailbreak on February 15, 2012 at 8:29 PM

I am not arrogant. But I have an opinion, and I’m pretty damn sick of the people here who attack everyone who takes a stand for winning the election as the top priority right now.

That said, I don’t have a problem with taking a principled stand, as long as it is based on actual principles. But when I see people flitting from one candidate to another, not having even a clue of what they really stand for or what they have done in the past, as long as they call themselves “conservatives” and bash Romney, I have difficulty taking them seriously.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:39 PM

You think calling people easily misled, ignorant, stupid, and dependent on others for their thoughts is a humble approach to a disagreement?

Look, let’s just be honest here. None of these candidates are conservative, not really. At this point, people are trying to cobble together reasons to vote for someone. They’re trying to be as faithful to their principles as possible. Be patient and let the process work.

He’s counting on the 52% of economically-illiterate blockheads that voted for him last time, expanded by his class-warfare rhetoric and the OWS “1%” movement promulgating fear in the “independent voters” ( read wishy-washy soccers moms and other spineless ‘Americans’ ).

You’re dumping a lot of cold water on at least half the base right now.

Hey, I’m just calling it as I see it. There are a lot of disillusioned conservatives like me who are being pushed out of the party by the purist faction. (Yeah, yeah, I know “You’re NOT a conservative! You are a mittbot!! Heard it before, but, by all means, continue, if you must)

I have trouble seeing what a lot of current GOP incumbents feel they even have to fight for. We need to get an identity as a party and this is probably why I am okay with a brokered convention at this point.

He’s counting on the 52% of economically-illiterate blockheads that voted for him last time, expanded by his class-warfare rhetoric and the OWS “1%” movement promulgating fear in the “independent voters” ( read wishy-washy soccers moms and other spineless ‘Americans’ ).

Hey, I’m just calling it as I see it. There are a lot of disillusioned conservatives like me who are being pushed out of the party by the purist faction. (Yeah, yeah, I know “You’re NOT a conservative! You are a mittbot!! Heard it before, but, by all means, continue, if you must)

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:47 PM

The socons are being pushed out too. This is working both ways right now.

I have trouble seeing what a lot of current GOP incumbents feel they even have to fight for. We need to get an identity as a party and this is probably why I am okay with a brokered convention at this point.

Look, let’s just be honest here. None of these candidates are conservative, not really. At this point, people are trying to cobble together reasons to vote for someone. They’re trying to be as faithful to their principles as possible. Be patient and let the process work.

Hey, I’m just calling it as I see it. There are a lot of disillusioned conservatives like me who are being pushed out of the party by the purist faction. (Yeah, yeah, I know “You’re NOT a conservative! You are a mittbot!! Heard it before, but, by all means, continue, if you must)

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Why would it disillusion you that people are sticking to their guns? I would have been more disappointed if people had just immediately capitulated to the electability argument. It’s a great time to be a conservative. We’re really rediscovering what the term means, unearthing some of the forgotten philosophers who have loads to say about our present state of affairs…Shoot, we’re about to win by default because of the mathematical impossibility of sustaining the welfare state. The Tea Party is making strides in local and state affairs and really starting to have an effect on statewide elections. The end is not nigh.

I have trouble seeing what a lot of current GOP incumbents feel they even have to fight for. We need to get an identity as a party and this is probably why I am okay with a brokered convention at this point.

Bluray on February 15, 2012 at 8:47 PM

And we should all just slit our throats now……. who listens to this cr@p????

If the EU totally collapses, not even the MSM can sugar-coat it. You could throw Christine O’Donnell in as the GOP nominee at that point and she could win. [/light sarc]

But am I REALLY in the mood to hope for a world-wide economic depression?

Myron Falwell on February 15, 2012 at 7:07 PM

And, as evidenced by many posts here, this is where the Obama-haters have landed. They must hope the worst for the country in order to see the President lose. They relish the thought that things will get worse for the middle class and the poor and that the suffering will translate into votes for whatever crappy candidate eventually runs against Obama.

Puhleeze. 2010 was a very different story. In 2010, the GOP was united, energized by the Tea Party, which, at that time was focused on taxes and fiscal conservatism. Since then, the party has been split into those who believe that it will be easy to defeat Obama, and those who believe it will take every bit of unity and focus and then some to get him out.

In 2010, I attended TP rallies, worked to support GOP candidates and felt pretty optimistic about our chance in 2012. No more.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:33 PM

The thing is that intensity simply cannot be maintained for three years. People have lives to live, kids to raise, grandchildren to babysit. Some even have jobs to go to. I have no worries that this summer the great awakening will continue. This is the deep breath before the horse race.

Polls cannot register the disgust that so many Americans feel for the major players. And isn’t it interesting that the mess in Greece is somehow escaping scrutiny in the media right now? The MSM doesn’t want to do anything to remind those folks who attended the Tea Party rallies that as goes Greece goes the rest of the profligate spenders.

I remain optimistic that Americans will send Obama home in November, though if we secure the House and the Senate I can live with Obama having to play nice.

By the time the election comes around, we will have been dealing with $5-6 a gallon gas. Food costs will be soaring. Something really serious will have erupted in the Mideast and Obama will not do anything except his continual “diplomatic” thing that does not work.

Debates will be over . . . hopefully, the GOP will have non-stop ads showing the Keystone debacle . . . over and over again. And then the contraception debacle. Over and over again.

And then remember . . . Breitbart supposedly has an October surprise for Obama. He is hoping it is something really good. Everything that he has produced before has lived up to its billing.

“Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.” ~ Maj. Genl. US Grant

Afterseven on February 15, 2012 at 8:31 PM

.
+1000000000000000000000000
Great quote.Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 8:32 PM

And we should all just slit our throats now……. who listens to this cr@p????

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 8:53 PM

So does our party have an identity crisis or not?

Are we a Ficon party, a Socon party, a libertarian party, what are we, because if we lose to Obama in 2012, or look like we are going to, we need to figure out how to politically fight during his 2nd term.

Dayumn. Bmore got three trolls to fall under the axe. I saw something that borntoraise hogs had said, thought it looked a little squeamish, at least for AP’s tastes. Apparently, it was. Most trolls I got banned in 1 day is …well, 1. Bleeds Blue

and he still gone. I coaxed him to pull the pin on a hand grenade and dadgum it if he didn’t do it.

“Puhleeze. 2010 was a very different story. In 2010, I attended TP rallies, worked to support GOP candidates and felt pretty optimistic about our chance in 2012. No more.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:33 PM”

How is it different and what were you doing at the Tea Parties? Were you taking down names so the Obama Truth Teams know who to target? I get bored with the loser talk, anyone telling me we will lose moderates and independants if we don’t choose so and so are the people responsible for getting Obama elected.

You can have your opinion, but you sound like the enemy! This coming from a guy who will support Mitt if he wins. Moderates and independants never seem to run from Democrats insane spending, corruption, lies or overreach. Why would they bother with Democrat-lite when they can have the real thing! I don’t even like Santorum, but if he wins, we fight for it tooth and nail.