The optimal degree of discretion in monetary policy by Susan Athey(
Book
)
30
editions published
between
2002
and
2004
in
English
and held by
85
libraries
worldwide
How much discretion should the monetary authority have in setting its policy? This question is analyzed in an economy with an agreed-upon social welfare function that depends on the randomly fluctuating state of the economy. The monetary authority has private information about that state. In the model, well-designed rules trade off society's desire to give the monetary authority discretion to react to its private information against society's need to guard against the time inconsistency problem arising from the temptation to stimulate the economy with unexpected inflation. Although this dynamic mechanism design problem seems complex, society can implement the optimal policy simply by legislating an inflation cap that specifies the highest allowable inflation rate. The more severe the time inconsistency problem, the more tightly the cap constrains policy and the smaller is the degree of discretion. As this problem becomes sufficiently severe, the optimal degree of discretion is none

Mentoring and diversity by Susan Athey(
Book
)
13
editions published
in
1998
in
English
and held by
71
libraries
worldwide
This paper studies the forces which determine how diversity at a firm evolves over time. We consider a dynamic model o a single firm with two levels of employees, the entry level and the upper level. In each period, the firm selects a subset of the entry-level workers for promotion to the upper level. The members of the entry-level worker pool vary in their initial ability as well as in their type, ' where type could refer to gender or cultural background. Employees augment their initial ability by acquiring specific human capital in mentoring interactions with upper level employees. We assume that an entry-level worker receives more mentoring when a greater proportion of upper-level workers match the entry-level worker's type. In this model, it is optimal for the firm to consider type in addition to ability in making promotion decisions, so as to maximize the effectiveness of future mentoring. We derived conditions under which firms attain full diversity, as well as conditions under which there are multiple steady states, so that the level of diversity depends on the firm's initial conditions. With multiple steady states, temporary affirmative action policies can have a long-run impact on diversity levels

An empirical framework for testing theories about complementarity in organizational design by Susan Athey(
Book
)
11
editions published
in
1998
in
English
and held by
67
libraries
worldwide
This paper studies alternative empirical strategies for estimating the effects of organization design practices on performance, as well as the factors which determine organizational design, in a cross-section of firms. Our economic model is based on a firm where multiple organizational design practices are en endogenously determined, and these organizational design practices affect output through an 'organizational design production function.' The econometric model includes unobserved exogenous variation in the costs and returns to each of the individual practices. The model is used to evaluate how different econometric strategies for testing theories about complementarity can be interpreted under alternative assumptions about the economic and statistical environment. We identify plausible hypotheses about the joint distribution of the unobservables under which several different approaches from the existing literature will yield biased and inconsistent estimates. We show that the sign of the bias depends on two factors: whether the organzational design practices are complements, and the correlation between the unobserved returns to each practice. We find several sets of conditions under which the sign of the bias can be determined, and we provide economic interpretations. Our analysis shows that for a particular set of hypotheses, a variety of different procedures may all yield qualitatively similar biases, presenting a challenge for the identification of complementarity. We then propose a structural approach, which is based on a system of simultaneous equations describing productivity and the demand for organizational design practices. As long as exogenous variables are observed which are uncorrelated with the unobserved returns to practices, the structural parameters are identified, yielding consistent tests for complementarity as well as the cross-equation restrictions implied by static optimization of the organizatin's profit function

The adoption and impact of advanced emergency response services by Susan Athey(
Book
)
12
editions published
in
1998
in
English
and held by
63
libraries
worldwide
This paper studies the causes and consequences of the adoption of technology by hospitals and public emergency response systems, focusing on Basic and Enhanced 911 services. Basic 911 allows people within a given locality to access specialized call-takers and ambulance dispatchers using the single telephone number 911. Enhanced 911 is characterized by telecommunications equipment and information technology which identifies the location of emergency callers. We begin by exploring the distribution of 911 systems among counties in the U.S., showing that this locally provided service responds to income and political factors as well as population and density of a county. Then, using a database of cardiac patients in Pennsylvania in 1995, we are able to characterize some of the productivity efforts of 911 services. We show that Enhanced 911 reduces response times, which in turn reduce mortality. Further, we find that the pre-hospital system interacts with the allocation of patients to hospitals in several ways. First, patient severity affect the allocation of patients to high-technology hospitals. Second, conditional on the availability of advanced cardiac care facilities, counties with 911 systems allocate cardiac patients to hospitals with better technology. Finally, hospitals with more advanced emergency and cardiac technology treat a higher share of cardiac patients who make use of the pre- hospital system

Information and competition in U.S. Forest Service timber auctions by Susan Athey(
Book
)
15
editions published
between
1999
and
2000
in
English
and held by
61
libraries
worldwide
This paper studies the bidding behavior of firms in U.S. Forest Service timber auctions in 1976--1990. When conducting timber auctions, the Forest Service publicly announces its estimates of the tract characteristics before the auction, and each bidder additionally has an opportunity to inspect the tract and form its own private estimates. We build a model that incorporates both differential information and the fact that bids placed in timber auctions are multidimensional. The theory predicts that bidders will strategically distort their bids based on their private information, a practice known as 'skewed bidding.' Using a dataset that includes both the public ex ante Forest Service estimates and the ex post realizations of the tract characteristics, we test our model and provide evidence that bidders do possess private information. Our results suggest that private information affects Forest Service revenue and creates allocational inefficiency. Finally, we establish that risk aversion plays an important role in bidding behavior

The impact of information technology on emergency health care outcomes by Susan Athey(
Book
)
13
editions published
in
2000
in
English
and held by
56
libraries
worldwide
This paper analyzes the productivity of technology and job design in emergency response systems, or 911 systems.' During the 1990s, many 911 systems adopted Enhanced 911' (E911), where information technology is used to link automatic caller identification to a database of address and location information. A potential benefit to E911 is improved timeliness of the emergency response. We evaluate the returns to E911 in the context of a panel dataset of Pennsylvania counties during 1994-1996, when almost half of the 67 counties experienced a change in technology. We measure productivity using an index of health status of cardiac patients at the time of ambulance arrival, where the index should be improved by timely response. We also consider the direct effect of E911 on several patient outcomes, including mortality within the first hours following the incident and the total hospital charges incurred by the patient. Our main finding is that E911 increases the short-term survival rates for patients with cardiac diagnoses by about 1%, from a level of 96.2%. We also provide evidence that E911 reduces hospital charges. Finally, we analyze the effect of job design, in particular the use of Emergency Medical Dispatching' (EMD), where call-takers gather medical information, provide medical instructions over the telephone, and prioritize the allocation of ambulance and paramedic services. Controlling for EMD adoption does not affect our results about E911, and we find that EMD and E911 do not have significant interactions in determining outcomes (that is, they are neither substitutes nor complements)

Empirical models of auctions by Susan Athey(
Book
)
11
editions published
in
2006
in
English
and held by
22
libraries
worldwide
Many important economic questions arising in auctions can be answered only with knowledge of the underlying primitive distributions governing bidder demand and information. An active literature has developed aiming to estimate these primitives by exploiting restrictions from economic theory as part of the econometric model used to interpret auction data. We review some highlights of this recent literature, focusing on identification and empirical applications. We describe three insights that underlie much of the recent methodological progress in this area and discuss some of the ways these insights have been extended to richer models allowing more convincing empirical applications. We discuss several recent empirical studies using these methods to address a range of important economic questions

Identification and inference in nonlinear difference-in-differences models by Susan Athey(
Book
)
6
editions published
in
2002
in
English
and held by
17
libraries
worldwide
Abstract: This paper develops an alternative approach to the widely used Difference-In-Difference (DID) method for evaluating the effects of policy changes. In contrast to the standard approach, we introduce a nonlinear model that permits changes over time in the effect of unobservables (e.g., there may be a time trend in the level of wages as well as the returns to skill in the labor market). Further, our assumptions are independent of the scaling of the outcome. Our approach provides an estimate of the entire counterfactual distribution of outcomes that would have been experienced by the treatment group in the absence of the treatment, and likewise for the untreated group in the presence of the treatment. Thus, it enables the evaluation of policy interventions according to criteria such as a mean-variance tradeoff. We provide conditions under which the model is nonparametrically identified and propose an estimator. We consider extensions to allow for covariates and discrete dependent variables. We also analyze inference, showing that our estimator is root-N consistent and asymptotically normal. Finally, we consider an application

Dynamics of open source movements by Susan Athey(
Book
)
6
editions published
in
2010
in
English
and held by
11
libraries
worldwide
This paper considers a dynamic model of the evolution of open source software projects, focusing on the evolution of quality, contributing programmers, and users who contribute customer support to other users. Programmers who have used open source software are motivated by reciprocal altruism to publish their own improvements. The evolution of the open-source project depends on the form of the altruistic benefits: in a base case the project grows to a steady-state size from any initial condition; whereas adding a need for customer support makes zero-quality a locally absorbing state. We also analyze competition by commercial firms with OSS projects. Optimal pricing policies again vary: in some cases the commercial firm will set low prices when the open-source project is small; in other cases it mostly waits until the open-source project has matured

Comparing open and sealed bid auctions : evidence from timber auctions by Susan Athey(
Book
)
8
editions published
in
2008
in
English
and held by
7
libraries
worldwide
We study entry and bidding patterns in sealed bid and open auctions with heterogeneous bidders. Using data from U.S. Forest Service timber auctions, we document a set of systematic effects of auction format: sealed bid auctions attract more small bidders, shift the allocation towards these bidders, and can also generate higher revenue. We show that a private value auction model with endogenous participation can account for these qualitative effects of auction format. We estimate the model's parameters and show that it can explain the quantitative effects as well. Finally, we use the model to provide an assessment of bidder competitiveness, which has important consequences for auction choice

Position auctions with consumer search by Susan Athey(
Book
)
6
editions published
in
2009
in
English
and held by
7
libraries
worldwide
This paper examines a model in which advertisers bid for "sponsored-link" positions on a search engine. The value advertisers derive from each position is endogenized as coming from sales to a population of consumers who make rational inferences about firm qualities and search optimally. Consumer search strategies, equilibrium bidding, and the welfare benefits of position auctions are analyzed. Implications for reserve prices and a number of other auction design questions are discussed

A mentor system incorporating expertise to guide and teach statistical decision making by Susan Athey(
Archival Material
)
3
editions published
in
1987
in
English
and held by
7
libraries
worldwide
The computer mentor was tested against the usual textbook mentor method (search through a textbook until one finds a statistic that looks promising) with two different groups of subjects, 25 undergraduates and 19 doctoral students. The results were that the computer-assisted students in both samples correctly solved a larger proportion of problems and had a higher average number of problems correct than did the textbook assisted groups

Set-asides and subsidies in auctions by Susan Athey(
Book
)
8
editions published
in
2011
in
English
and held by
5
libraries
worldwide
Set-asides and subsidies are used extensively in government procurement and natural resource sales. We analyze these policies in an empirical model of U.S. Forest Service timber auctions. The model fits the data well both within the sample of unrestricted sales where we estimate the model, and when we predict (out of sample) bidder entry and prices for small business set-asides. Our estimates suggest that restricting entry to small businesses substantially reduces efficiency and revenue, although it does increase small business participation. An alternative policy of subsidizing small bidders would increase revenue and small bidder profit, while eliminating almost all of the efficiency loss of set-asides, and only slightly decreasing the profit of larger firms. We explain these findings by connecting to the theory of optimal auction design

Finite population causal standard errors by Alberto Abadie(
Book
)
3
editions published
in
2014
in
English
and held by
2
libraries
worldwide
When a researcher estimates the parameters of a regression function using information on all 50 states in the United States, or information on all visits to a website, what is the interpretation of the standard errors? Researchers typically report standard errors that are designed to capture sampling variation, based on viewing the data as a random sample drawn from a large population of interest, even in applications where it is difficult to articulate what that population of interest is and how it differs from the sample. In this paper we explore alternative interpretations for the uncertainty associated with regression estimates. As a leading example we focus on the case where some parameters of the regression function are intended to capture causal effects. We derive standard errors for causal effects using a generalization of randomization inference. Intuitively, these standard errors capture the fact that even if we observe outcomes for all units in the population of interest, there are for each unit missing potential outcomes for the treatment levels the unit was not exposed to. We show that our randomization-based standard errors in general are smaller than the conventional robust standard errors, and provide conditions under which they agree with them. More generally, correct statistical inference requires precise characterizations of the population of interest, the parameters that we aim to estimate within such population, and the sampling process. Estimation of causal parameters is one example where appropriate inferential methods may differ from conventional practice, but there are others

The nature and incidence of software piracy : evidence from Windows by Susan Athey(
Book
)
4
editions published
in
2013
in
English
and held by
1
library
worldwide
This paper evaluates the nature, relative incidence and drivers of software piracy. In contrast to prior studies, we analyze data that allows us to measure piracy for a specific product - Windows 7 - which was associated with a significant level of private sector investment. Using anonymized telemetry data, we are able to characterize the ways in which piracy occurs, the relative incidence of piracy across different economic and institutional environments, and the impact of enforcement efforts on choices to install pirated versus paid software. We find that: (a) the vast majority of "retail piracy" can be attributed to a small number of widely distributed "hacks" that are available through the Internet, (b) the incidence of piracy varies significantly with the microeconomic and institutional environment, and (c) software piracy primarily focuses on the most "advanced" version of Windows (Windows Ultimate). After controlling for a small number of measures of institutional quality and broadband infrastructure, one important candidate driver of piracy - GDP per capita - has no significant impact on the observed piracy rate, while the innovation orientation of an economy is associated with a lower rate of piracy. Finally, we are able to evaluate how piracy changes in response to country-specific anti-piracy enforcement efforts against specific peer-to-peer websites; overall, we find no systematic evidence that such enforcement efforts have had an impact on the incidence of software piracy

The impact of the internet on advertising markets for news media by Susan Athey(
Book
)
4
editions published
in
2013
in
English
and held by
1
library
worldwide
In this paper, we explore the hypothesis that an important force behind the collapse in advertising revenue experienced by newspapers over the past decade is the greater consumer switching facilitated by online consumption of news. We introduce a model of the market for advertising on news media outlets whereby news outlets are modeled as competing two-sided platforms bringing together heterogeneous, partially multi-homing consumers with advertisers with heterogeneous valuations for reaching consumers. A key feature of our model is that the multi-homing behavior of the advertisers is determined endogenously. The presence of switching consumers means that, in the absence of perfect technologies for tracking the ads seen by consumers, advertisers purchase wasted impressions: they reach the same consumer too many times. This has subtle effects on the equilibrium outcomes in the advertising market. One consequence is that multi-homing on the part of advertisers is heterogeneous: high-value advertisers multi-home, while low- value advertisers single-home. We characterize the impact of greater consumer switching on outlet profits as well as the impact of technologies that track consumers both within and across outlets on those profits. Somewhat surprisingly, superior tracking technologies may not always increase outlet profits, even when they increase efficiency. In extensions to the baseline model, we show that when outlets that show few or ineffective ads (e.g. blogs) attract readers from traditional outlets, the losses are at least partially offset by an increase in ad prices. Introducing a paywall does not just diminish readership, but it furthermore reduce advertising prices (and leads to increases in advertising prices on competing outlets)