Gary Doran

Advanced Stats 12-Pack: ASU vs Oregon

The injury-plagued ASU Sun Devils travels to Eugene, Oregon to take on the Oregon Ducks for this season’s final game in October. Since 2000, ASU has played six games in Eugene posting a 2-4 record with an average score of 28-36. Overall, ASU has played the Ducks in Eugene 17 times posting a win-loss record of 8-9, with ASU winning the first five contests, while Oregon has won the last three. This trip will be coach Todd Graham’s first game in Eugene, as he is 0-2 against the Ducks in Sun Devil Stadium.

Note: We have changed up the stats a little bit giving you a different look at the numbers

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

OREGON STATISTICAL TRENDS

RED ZONE EFFICIENCY

THIS WEEK’S STAT 12-PACK

1. At home this season, ASU averages scoring a rushing touchdown once every 11.5 carries, whereas in road games it jumps to once every 54.5 carries2. ASU has gotten an interception in only three out of eight games this season3. ASU has not gotten a first half interception this year4. Oregon is last in the conference this year with only six takeaways, and hasn’t gotten a takeaway in their last three games5. Eight of the 21 rushing touchdowns surrendered by the Oregon defense came when the Ducks were either ahead by more than two touchdowns, or behind by more than two touchdowns6. Oregon’s offense is second in the conference in the average yards per play7. The ASU offense is eleventh in the conference in average yards per play in games on the road8. The Oregon offense has gained over 200 yards on the ground in six out of their seven games this year9. The Oregon defense has given up over 200 yards on the ground in five out of their seven games this year10. Oregon has not thrown a touchdown pass in the first quarter this year11. Five of the 12 rushing touchdowns the Devil defense has given up came in one game against Colorado, and also 40-percent of the rushing yards surrendered this year by ASU came against Colorado12. Roughly 60-percent of the pass completions by the Oregon offense in the first quarter this year do not gain a first down

Decoding the Stats

The year-over-year statistical trends on the defensive side of the ball speak volumes for the Oregon Ducks. Their offense still scores points and gobbles up yards effectively as ever, as they have been the conference leader in total offense in each season since 2012, except this year where they are rank a decent third.

The Oregon defense, on the other hand, has seen a major drop off over the past two seasons. In 2015 and again this season, the Duck defense is last in the conference in total defense and in scoring defense. As bad as the ASU pass defense has been the past two years, they have only been ninth and tenth in those same categories over the same time period.

Another troubling aspect for the Oregon defense this year has been its inability to stop third downs, as almost half of all opponents third down plays have been converted to first downs. That is a reason why the Duck defense has faced an average of over 86 plays per game this year.

Another major area of concern for the Ducks have been their lack of takeaways by the defense over the last two years. The offense loses turnovers at pretty much the same rate as it has since the 2012 season, but it’s the lack of turnovers generated by the defense that is the stumbling block. For the season, the Ducks are sitting at a negative two in the turnover margin, in comparison, they have not finished the season with a negative turnover margin since 2006.

The Oregon running game is still dangerous as always, but the 248 yards per game average this year is the second lowest for the Ducks over the past seven seasons. Additionally, the 240 yards per game average yards passing is twelve yards per game better than ASU this season, but is the lowest average for the Ducks since the 2012 season.

ASU and Oregon are both a little slow at scoring points in their games as each team has scored less than 50 points in the opening quarter. The difference has been in the fourth quarter where ASU has scored 120 points in eight games and Oregon only 47 points in seven games.

The real key to this game may not be so much the Oregon Ducks, but which ASU teams shows up; the scrappy Sun Devil team that plays in Tempe, or the one that shows up on ASU away games this year. There’s a big difference.

About Gary Doran

Gary graduated from ASU many years ago. After careers working in banking, finance and the financial administration of academic research funding, he is now interested in utilizing his passion for numbers towards two things he thoroughly loves; Arizona State University and college football. He is looking forward to finding the “stories” buried within the numbers on a football stat sheet. He has gone to ASU football games all the way back to the days of Frank Kush and the WAC. He has been married to an amazing ASU graduate for almost forty years, and they currently live in Ventura, CA. Although this may disqualify him from talking football, he and his wife enjoy the practice of yoga and dancing the Argentine Tango. Ole!