While Wainwright may have a long term value at that draft spot, it'll take a while since typically guys coming off TJ take a year+ to get back to normal and they have restricted innings count their first year back. Unless you don't feel like playing for this year, which seems kinda silly to determine in December, I'd keep the stud pitcher in Kershaw.

If you aren't that keen on keeping Kershaw, I'd package him and Kimbrel for an elite hitter in a good draft spot and then keep Wainwright on top of that. While Kimbrel is a great value, keeping a closer when you only have 5 keepers seems meh. I'd prefer you get a big time hitter. If you can pawn off Wainwright with Kimbrel too and then keep Kershaw I'd do that too

raiders_umpire wrote:You have enough keepers for next year already. I would keep the stud in Kershaw even though Wainwright is superb value for the next few years.

Even with the initial poster saying there will be top SP talent available in the draft? Based on his original post, it looks like he can land another ace with that 3rd round pick AND keep Wainwright at 18th. Not even factoring in keeping Wainwright beyond 2012. How can you go wrong here? If I'm able to land a "Greinke type" with that 3rd round pick, why hold onto Kershaw?

raiders_umpire wrote:You have enough keepers for next year already. I would keep the stud in Kershaw even though Wainwright is superb value for the next few years.

Even with the initial poster saying there will be top SP talent available in the draft? Based on his original post, it looks like he can land another ace with that 3rd round pick AND keep Wainwright at 18th. Not even factoring in keeping Wainwright beyond 2012. How can you go wrong here? If I'm able to land a "Greinke type" with that 3rd round pick, why hold onto Kershaw?

Kershaw + 18th pick <<< Wainwright + 3rd Round Greinke type.

If it takes Wainwright several starts to get it right again, the team with Kershaw is going to blow you away in pitching stats. It will be 13 months this April since Wainwright's surgery, so he should be fine for the year, but there is still a small risk. Keep the stud.

raiders_umpire wrote:You have enough keepers for next year already. I would keep the stud in Kershaw even though Wainwright is superb value for the next few years.

Even with the initial poster saying there will be top SP talent available in the draft? Based on his original post, it looks like he can land another ace with that 3rd round pick AND keep Wainwright at 18th. Not even factoring in keeping Wainwright beyond 2012. How can you go wrong here? If I'm able to land a "Greinke type" with that 3rd round pick, why hold onto Kershaw?

Kershaw + 18th pick <<< Wainwright + 3rd Round Greinke type.

If it takes Wainwright several starts to get it right again, the team with Kershaw is going to blow you away in pitching stats. It will be 13 months this April since Wainwright's surgery, so he should be fine for the year, but there is still a small risk. Keep the stud.

Yes, there is a small risk associated with Wainwright, but you cannot argue that Wainwright at an 18th round pick isn't insanely valuable. And if he busts or gets injured again, you don't lose much. And if you can land someone like Kennedy, Bumgardner, Gallardo, Lincecum, Cain, or even Greinke(!) at a 3rd round pick, why keep Kershaw? Those guys can all produce slightly worse stats than Kershaw.

But assuming he does go all pitching, the safer bet is a 3rd round Greinke (who could outproduce Kershaw IMO) + Wainwright for Kershaw + an 18th round pitcher. My money is definitely on the Wainwright side. If the stud SP weren't being kept, then by all means keep Kershaw.

Urban Cohorts wrote:Even with the initial poster saying there will be top SP talent available in the draft? Based on his original post, it looks like he can land another ace with that 3rd round pick AND keep Wainwright at 18th. Not even factoring in keeping Wainwright beyond 2012. How can you go wrong here? If I'm able to land a "Greinke type" with that 3rd round pick, why hold onto Kershaw?

Kershaw + 18th pick <<< Wainwright + 3rd Round Greinke type.

If it takes Wainwright several starts to get it right again, the team with Kershaw is going to blow you away in pitching stats. It will be 13 months this April since Wainwright's surgery, so he should be fine for the year, but there is still a small risk. Keep the stud.

Yes, there is a small risk associated with Wainwright, but you cannot argue that Wainwright at an 18th round pick isn't insanely valuable. And if he busts or gets injured again, you don't lose much. And if you can land someone like Kennedy, Bumgardner, Gallardo, Lincecum, Cain, or even Greinke(!) at a 3rd round pick, why keep Kershaw? Those guys can all produce slightly worse stats than Kershaw.

But assuming he does go all pitching, the safer bet is a 3rd round Greinke (who could outproduce Kershaw IMO) + Wainwright for Kershaw + an 18th round pitcher. My money is definitely on the Wainwright side. If the stud SP weren't being kept, then by all means keep Kershaw.

Agree 100%. Every player has risk but you limit your risk with Wainwright because he is an 18th round pick. That means if it does take him a few starts to get going he still only has to out produce other 18 round picks to be a valuable pick. Kershaw on the other hand, has to produce at a similar level as last season and anything short of that and you over payed for him. I am a big Kershaw fan but I would still take Wainwright here.

These kind of leagues are all about value and again Kershaw has no value. You are getting him for exactly what he is worth and again he HAS to produce at that level to be worth it and anything worse and you lose. Wainwright is a top 100 player even with his surgery and but you are getting him as a top 250 guy. That is unbelievably good value. It allows room for injury and other things to occur without crippling your team. On top of that you then get to keep your 3rd round pick and take any number of top 20 SP to go along with Wainwright.

Yes there is risk by taking Wainwright but that is how you win leagues. Take calculated risks that can pay off big time maybe it doesn't work out but usually it can and when it does the rest of the league needs to look out.

"In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move."- Douglas Adams

If you're gunna keep Wainwright, I would still try to package Kershaw+Kimbrel for a hitter. I wouldn't throw a guy like Kershaw back into the draft pool and while Kimbrel has solid value in terms of draft position, the combo should net you a solid hitter in a good draft spot.