Update: Chance of accumulating snow dropping

By
Jason Samenow

Earlier today, we suggested a 65% chance of at least an inch of snow from the storm to impact the region Thursday night and Friday. The latest data we're analyzing suggests odds of accumulating snow are less likely, probably at 50% or less inside the beltway. In the north and west suburbs outside the beltway, there is a better chance of some snow accumulation (in the 50-60% range), but even there it's no sure bet.

There are two problems: 1) The amount of cold air is marginal and 2) the latest model simulations are suppressing development of the storm far enough south that it doesn't look like we'll see as much precipitation as shown by earlier model runs. We'll have a more detailed forecast in the morning.

Thanks for the update. I just watched Sue Palka and I think her map showed maybe an inch for DC and 1-3 for the Western suburbs. The most snow on her map (4+) looked to have shifted a bit farther south and west than what this afternoon's HPC maps showed.