IFA Market Commentary 10-Nov-2009

By IBT Staff Reporter On 11/10/09 AT 2:03 AM

Rupee :The Indian Rupee is was unable to hold above the resistance of 47.50 levels. Sell recommendations of 46.50 to 47.50 is bearing gains for exporters. Bias is still strong for rupee . Please note that dollar was earlier in correction mode (moving stronger last few days) but the important levels of 1.4453 in euro and 990 dollars in gold and 70 dollars in crude could not be broken which could change the bias of rupee to weakness. Exporters sell at every upticks till 47.50 levels. (USDINR - 46.48). Bullish to Rangebound.

Euro :EURUSD made a false breakdown on November 03, and retreated to the upside, traded above the trendline indicating potential further bullish scenario with 1.4950 - 1.5060 as nearest target. Immediate support at 1.4850 - 1.4800 area. Break below that area should diminish the bullish outlook but as long as the pair stay above the trendline, bullishness still holds. Fundamentally after worse than expected NFP and unemployment rate on Friday, the risk aversion had not enough power to reduce optimism about economy recovery and Dollar failed to gain significant momentum. This signifies strength in riskier assets and high yield currencies which should continue put pressure on the Greenback.(EurUsd-1.4980).Bullish

Sterling : The Sterling maintained strength despite euro closing on a weaker note on Friday. On h4 chart , from a Fibonacci retracement point of view, the pullback from 1.6842 to 1.6704 yesterday is actually a normal correction as 1.6704 area is the 23.6% Fibo retracement area of 1.6261 - 1.6842 and now price seem to reject to move below that area, indicating potential further bullish continuation. However, of course we need a clear break above 1.6842 to confirm bullish continuation scenario. Break below 1.6704 should lead us into a neutral zone.(GBPUSD 1.6730) Neutral to Bullish.

Yen : On the charts we can see the trendline support has been broken to the downside indicating potential bearish view with 88.80 as potential technical target. Break above the trendline should be seen as bearish scenario failure and might lead us to re-test 92.50 area. Immediate resistance at 90.20/50 area. Neutral to Bullish. ( USDJPY -89.80) Bullish

AUD : AUDUSD continued it's bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9307 and closed at 0.9305. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but watch out for a potential double top formation around 0.9327 area. We need a breakout above that area to confirm bullish continuation targeting at least 0.9400 before aim for 0.9500 as usually a bearish correction/reversal scenario failure lead to the other scenario: bullish continuation. Immediate support at 0.9250. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone .(AUD/USD 0.9260) Neutral to Bullish.

Gold : Gold marked another high of $1111 levels yesterday. Dollar sell-off overseas, has encouraged Gold to shine with a newer high. We still believe that further rise in gold can be expected, thus picking up this commodity at every dip is recommended. Strong support is seen at $1087. (Gold $1102) Cautiously Bullish.

Dollar Index :Dollar has been a loser in this week due to the IMF comments, G20 pledging to continue stimulus, strength in gold and higher equities. Currently DI is trading near the support zone of 75.10 levels, if this support is broken then the next immeditate support comes around 74.80 - 74.85 levels. However, the immediate resistance is seen around 75.86 levels. (DI - 75.11). Bearish