Interestingly, the Latino share does not matter once one conditions on the other variables (e.g. college). What I like about this analysis is that it 1. goes deeper than set of cross tabs on exit polls can by conditioning on multiple variables 2. aggregates info across states (Latinos in CA vs NM) and 3 can be used as a forecasting tool.

It suggests that had Obama campaigned in Florida he would have narrowed Hillary's lead by about 7 percentage points. It also forecasted a much closer race in WA than it appears to have been. Interestingly it suggests that Obama has a good chance at winning Ohio (by 10 pts) but losing Texas by 10.