World Cup’s Most Pessimistic Country: England?

Decorations and flags outside The Robin Hood public house, in Jarrow, England, in celebration of the coming World Cup. But English fans don't have high hopes.

Scott Heppell / Associated Press

By DAVID LEONHARDT

June 10, 2014

The most downcast soccer fans in the world — relative to the quality of their national team — are the citizens of England.

Only 4 percent of English respondents named the home country when asked which team would win the World Cup, in a recent Upshot/YouGov study of 19 countries. Of the 19 countries, only respondents in Costa Rica, which doesn’t crack the top 25 in various world rankings, were so pessimistic.

England, by comparison, has somewhere between the sixth- and 11th-best national team in the world, depending on which ranking you believe. Just two years ago, England was the third-ranked team in the official FIFA rankings.

English pessimism may be rational, in light of the country’s decades of World Cup heartache, but it nonetheless stands out. In South Korea (which has the world’s 55th-ranked team), 8 percent of respondents forecast a championship for the home side. Similarly, 8 percent of Mexicans (whose team is ranked 19th), 11 percent of Australians (59th), 14 percent of Americans (14th), 21 percent of Italians (9th), 48 percent of Spaniards (1st) and 64 percent of Brazilians (3rd) did.

The dark view from England especially contrasts with the irrational optimism that typically grips that country before a World Cup. Then again, given England’s recent results, maybe the low expectations will be a good-luck charm. “Where are the scads of St. George flags fluttering like English hearts from windows and white vans and honky-tonk pubs?” Sean Ingle of The Guardian recently asked. “The plastic red and white Droog hats? The headlines suggesting that England can win the World Cup?”

He continued: This year’s “zesty young squad is not noticeably worse than other recent vintages. Compared with some — 2010, for instance — it is arguably better.”

England’s first match, against Italy, takes place Saturday, in the Amazon city of Manaus.