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Tesla's BMW 3-Series Fighter Just Might Be Your Next Car

This is the fourth in a series on the state of the electric vehicle, with a focus on U.S.-based Tesla Motors. Click these links for Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3 or find them below as well.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk doesn’t take to Twitter very often, which is probably a disappointment to his 166,000+ followers. But when he does, the one-man conglomerate often has something interesting to say and this past Friday night, he didn’t disappoint.

.@joshj777 It has always been my dream to produce a low cost, compelling electric car. We are 3 to 4 years away. Wish it could be sooner.

On the heels of Tesla’s recent news it had to delay the Model X crossover until 2014, this wasn’t a huge surprise. The so-called third-generation platform had been expected to follow the Model X by a “few years” per Tesla’s previous remarks and its recent SEC filings, so this was consistent. But it was still a tease and it wasn’t clear Musk would offer much more in the way of information. Still, @benmacy figured he’d ask and, lo, Musk replied:

Wow, what could this technology be? There was a hint in the annual report about battery-swapping stations, a la struggling EV startup Better Place. Could it be that? Or perhaps some kind of range extending technology, a la the Chevy Volt (even though Tesla has spoken negatively of such concepts in the past)? More likely, it’s something even more radical. We won’t know for a while, but what we will know is a bit more about the car, because Musk was chatty enough to reply to @MichaelLindahl with some more juicy details:

@michaellindahl It will be slightly smaller w fewer features as std. Think Audi A4 or BMW 3 vs Model S being S7 or M5

Add these up and you can’t help but get excited as an electric-vehicle enthusiast. For starters, let’s talk price. A stripped 3-series BMW is $32,500 today. Tesla is talking about their “third series” starting at less money (in today’s dollars) — but with comparable luxury. In fact, $30,000 would get you a well-equipped Toyota Camry while realistically, you won’t drive off the lot at your Audi or BMW dealer for less than about $40K. The Tesla seems headed for similar.

Still, we are talking about an entry-level luxury vehicle for what can loosely be described as “the masses” here. The Camry might not be the target, but given the savings in operating costs of an electric vehicle, it’s actually reasonable to include it in the comparison as Musk notes:

But when considering savings of gas v electricity, true cost vs gas cars is more like $25k for a v sweet ride

In addition to 403,000 Camrys last year, U.S. consumers bought 331,000 Honda Accords, 241,000 Ford Fusions and 230,000 Hyundai Sonatas, among others — in other words, well over a million vehicles. Among entry luxury vehicles, the BMW 3-series sold very nearly 100,000 in total, with 82,000 C-class Mercedes, 60,000 Infiniti G’s, and 38,000 Audi A4s in the mix. (All stats courtesy of the amazing site GoodCarBadCar).

Basically, Tesla is making a move from niche to mainstream once it has a handle on two critical things (1) manufacturing at scale (2) a cheaper battery to make the less-expensive car viable. The first of those just took a giant step as the company announced it is already ahead of the manufacturing pace it needs to hit its production goal of 20,000 cars in 2013. In fact, the company is currently running at “more than 500 Model S deliveries per week.”

On the battery front, while research continues looking for breakthroughs, Tesla sounds confident that the incremental progress they are already seeing will at least achieve enough to deliver the 200+ mile, mostly-affordable vehicle that could make EVs mainstream. In the next segment, we’ll talk about battery developments, and when and whether the 500-mile, affordable battery will likely become reality.

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My mistake. 200,000 miles. The numbers were extrapolated from Panasonic’s testing of the batteries used. Tesla’s computerized, thermal management should be able to improve that number. However, truthfully, that theory hasn’t been proven. Time will tell but if you use Roadsters as an example, things will be just fine.

It’s been a long time since America wowed the world with its automobiles. Tesla is the game changer. I want one. Badly. But alas the Model S is too expensive for me. If they can manage a car with the proportions of a 3-Series BMW for $30K I wouldn’t hesitate. The concept of a usable, attractive, fast car that never goes to the gas station makes me giddy with joy.

Okay, so I gotta squeeze four more years out of my current BMW. It’s on, Mr. Musk. I haven’t even seen your car yet but based on the two you’ve already done, I know I’ll want one of those when it comes out.

Electric cars cost more than their fossil fuel brothers do to build. It usually takes some sort of fossil or nuclear energy to recharge them. When it finally comes out, we’ll see what you get for your money. I doubt they can match the craftsmanship of a BMW or Audi.Let’s hope this isn’t another $89,000 Volt that they can only sell for $40,000 before govt/ rebate.