Magic Craft Testing: r1+Title

Well, as I reached master of this horrid skill on monday, I've run a few tests before and after.

As anybody who's run a batch of wands might know, Here's a few points:

You will never roll 0matk

You will never get under 14 durability

5 matk seems to have a 10% chance despite being theoretically 25%. Its also a 50/50 if the crit or dura are good as well

Across all the items I've made r1, it seems that its impossible to roll some things inherently due to rank. At r1 its an estimated 15% of the roll minimum. This means 1matk savage wands, 1matk Hermits, 2 of each stat purple hearts, and 3 luck rabbits feet. This is a universal given at r1 that the minimum roll is raised from the bar. Its an average 15% across all items, but its higher for others, and lower in some cases. 0->1 in wands is a 20% base, but droseras can't go 1->2 prot because it can only roll 0, 1, and 2. +33% increase would be far too much.

Averages also seem to be around the median. Take this sample of numbers for instance. They're my final amount of rabbits feet before master:

More specifically, the rolls as it is impossible to roll a 2 luck rabbit's feet, and 1 is the inherent minimum. Only droseras actually break this law, as you can't roll 0 prot, but 1 prot is the minimum at all ranks. Going up to 2 would be a vast improvement to the minimum, being the roll of 0, 50%, and 100%. The average here is 7.8. This is a 60% average roll under 13 possible numbers. I normally say its a 50% average roll, but that's apparently wrong. How I wish I had the data set from my previous acc makes. They'd be rather helpful here.

Now, I rolled a rather small sample, probably because these are some of the most painful accs to roll: Purple Hearts. A 40 sample as seen here, the sum of the inherent bonus from 1~9 of each stat, combined.

Now, the average here is 21.5 The lowest rolls being 10, 13, 14, 16, and 16. Now, this would seem natural, 21.5 divided by a possible 36 gives a 59.72% as you only can roll from 2-9 for each stat. 1 is a given, and you cannot roll +0, so the possible numbers are 2~10, Nine different variants. Seems average, nothing wrong here. Or is it? What could change this?

Apparently, the minimum roll of an individual stat. The purple hearts rolled no 2stat at all, I checked my old stockade to see if it was 3 minimum naturally, and found several purple hearts with 2s. The minimum roll was increased from 1/9 to 2/9, closer to 20%. This means that its not 59.72%, but 67.1875%. The midway mark is ([85x.5]+15=57.5) naturally. This would drag it if its 15~100% to 20, or 25% to 100, up to 60% at 20%, and 62.5% at 25%. But as we can see, that's wrong.

This means that the median is not a fixed 50% at all, its actually higher than that normally, placed at 60%, but increased to almost 70% Put this to say, A Celtic tribolt wand with its insane rolls, a minimum of not 8matk, but quite possibly 12, and an average of lower 20s. And its massive durability roll of 1-40, turns into a minimum of possibly 25~28, and 45~50 would be a commonplace.

Purple hearts though are insanely difficult to measure steady calculations off of. If I had more mutant rabbits feet, I'd make more lucky accs, but I lack the rabbits feet. I'll likely make them as they're the easiest and a single-stat standard, but getting enough for a sizable standard, a massive amount of 400 for an 80 batch probably would return sufficient results. Purple hearts are RNG on 4 different places, overtaken only by hermits, divine weapons, and dragon gear minus the circlet. They're also insufferably hard to perfect, as the highest roll I have ever gotten was a 33 or 32 total stats rolled, which is akin to two 10s and two 8s.

How it wrangles the average up probably is a different hook, and calculating the chances of a perfect item are rather difficult.
Out of 436 zeder IIs, without mastery, I had a single one get 30/9/19/23, the other was a point or two less in bal/crit. A perfect for every stat depends, but taking your standard pair of guns it'd be okay to ballpark it at 1/500 nonmastered. Mastery affecting that to about 1/425. Ayyyy my mastery package would have net me a 100% perfect pair of zeders or two of em with mastery. For simpler items its a lot more likely. A single stat is 1/10. My head is in the water with 2~3 diff stats. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Last edited by Esileruf; 10-30-2015 at 03:15 AM.
Reason: ayyy update at TWO am.

I still remember the average from my initial 100 rabbit's feet. It was 7.6. 7.8 on monday seems to be, even with a larger batch, a fluke. I wont have access to daunting until I can find a hostage run willing to donate, hell, even a team that can run it with that criteria, and cast speed on my ego to have better control. I remember Vejosa saying a long time ago that monday had no effect at all, and it seems its true. I rolled the 100/100/100 of each acc batch on a wednesday.

And yeah, like anything its RNG. I rolled a 32 max hunter just before monday ended. But its a likelier bet than no title it seems. I'll get a real figure of this especially when I master engineering, the Zeders will be a PAIN to catalog, but it'll be worth it. Ech on each stat roll as well.

Considering the average for most of my gear w/o title is around 60% I'd like to consider engineering to be massively different. And that this guy used dowras. Jesus christ 300 of them. 300 dowras, God help me if I try 300 freaking savage wands to prove a point

2nd one echo's the first, From what I can tell the purple heart tests echo a few of the points I made up there, such as the minimum roll being raised and average, but its a lot harder to understand compared to the first two.

Hmm, I'll have to post another lost cause in the questions thread then, though I have my guesses. Monday's primary effect on success rates is 1.1x, but quality was always a mystery. I've even rolled things on monday and off when I was ranking blacksmithing and there was absolutely no difference whatsoever. Chances are its in server binaries and I'm SOL, but worf a shot. Good chance its already a "server bianary". Ech.

My guess is that the enchants are quite literally flat bonuses, similar to reforges, and interact with MC/Engy that way. Very much like the title I'd assume, which makes me wonder what its exact strength is.

It might not be good enough to convince anyone, but I've tailored hundreds of sellable products and monday + thunder homestead + two lv1 qual accs and lv 2 qual kit have always given me 8~9/10 sigs with always perfect minigames. Doing it on other days noticeably lowers my sig rate in my experience. I've always thought the day just adds a minor amount of quality points that is just enough to push me over 80 more often than not.

Never really bothered to even notice smith results since the RNG is strong with that one, but if it doesn't hurt then might as well get any bonus available even if it's placebo.

Ah. Well, I'll take yer word partially for it, I haven't been able to tailor much to test it, it'd p. much be logging the quality of thousands of hairbands and perfecting the art.I zink my intent would be harder as I'm trying to find out if monday effect which seems to exist but RNG kind of fucks with it that it doesn't affect magic craft/engy.

Now I just have to figure out if monday really affects it well.

Also, interesting tidbit: Fanatic greatswords seemingly cannot roll a higher minimum than the maximum. It'll force the maximum up from what Its roll would have been. I've yet to see one with higher min than max and I have four min-max exacts in this small batch:

I'd have made more but I'm missing sharps/shinies/hardeneds because too many rings/leathers were stored in comparison. Probably will have another quarter hundred batch later.

This took a while to sort.
Result of a 436 batch of zeders, nonmonday, No mastery. I also redid the fanatic greatswords, as they were horridly off.
Seeing as gurgle mats are literally by the thousands, I might end up making a greatsword batch just for giggles, and to see the occurrence of the forced maximum, and how it affects the average, if at all.

With this, the nonmonday for Engineering appears to be 61% Avg Roll. Very much in-line with the Magic Craft % I got from the Lucky Rabbit's Feet. Even with the Monday effect, if it even affects MC/Engy. Also managed to visibly confirm from the Max roll Occurrences to solidly pin the chance for a stat to get maximum roll, seeming at just under 10%.

Still probably will never attempt to dissuade anybody from crafting on Monday due to the fact that superstition is the best defense against devcat RNG.