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On Script

By: Erik Swarts | Thursday, February 14, 2013

The euro appears to be following the mirrored pivot glide-path from this weekend
(see Here).
Going forward, we will be looking for downside momentum to become entangled
around the bottom rail (e.g. stochastics & RSI).

The window in the diminished correlation extreme between the Australian dollar
and gold appears to be resolving (from last week, see Here).
We maintain the bearish expectations of long-term breakdowns in both the Aussie
as well as gold - as the respective pivots in this long-term relationship once
again tighten.

Silver continues to follow the unwind of 1991/1992 Nikkei comparative. Interestingly,
it has taken its time since the last pivot and has aligned with the seasonality
of the pattern. Should the comparative continue to be prescient, the lows from
early January will be broken shortly.

Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when
approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each
piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found
that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations
in the market and an endless potential for risk.

I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes.
I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums
can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to
know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can
read the charts and know the risks.

I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize
its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.

I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.

Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances
should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment,
trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to
your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader
or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational
and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject
to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information
and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading
decision.