Tuesday, November 09, 2004

President Bush given greater preference than Republican Senate candidate in all but two counties in Florida

After being urged to do so in an email, I've examined the difference between votes cast for President and Senate, by party, in Florida. President Bush gained a higher percentage of the vote than the Republican Senate candidate in all but two counties.

In the following chart a positive number in the column comparing the percentage vote between the Presidential and Senate races indicates how many more percentage points than the Senate candidate the Presidential candidate had. A negative number indicates how fewer percentage points a party's Presidential candidate had than his Senate candidate counterpart.

County

Bush %

Kerry %

% Senate Rep.

% Senate Dem.

%Pres. - %Sen. (R)

%Pres. - %Sen. (D)

Lafayette

73.98%

25.41%

54.57%

42.90%

19.42%

-17.49%

Dixie

68.84%

30.42%

52.68%

43.37%

16.15%

-12.95%

Liberty

63.79%

35.42%

48.75%

49.12%

15.03%

-13.71%

Holmes

77.25%

21.81%

63.41%

32.35%

13.84%

-10.54%

Taylor

63.71%

35.54%

50.17%

46.98%

13.54%

-11.45%

Hardee

69.65%

29.64%

56.41%

39.30%

13.24%

-9.65%

Wakulla

57.61%

41.62%

45.10%

52.05%

12.51%

-10.43%

Suwannee

70.58%

28.61%

58.45%

39.00%

12.14%

-10.39%

Gilchrist

70.37%

28.75%

58.86%

37.40%

11.51%

-8.65%

Franklin

58.55%

40.47%

47.13%

50.26%

11.42%

-9.79%

Hamilton

54.97%

44.50%

44.75%

52.68%

10.23%

-8.18%

Union

72.64%

26.76%

62.49%

35.49%

10.15%

-8.73%

Madison

50.51%

48.73%

40.58%

56.74%

9.93%

-8.01%

Columbia

67.05%

32.14%

57.15%

39.89%

9.90%

-7.75%

Calhoun

63.41%

35.50%

53.69%

43.31%

9.72%

-7.81%

Levy

62.51%

36.48%

53.40%

43.56%

9.12%

-7.09%

Bradford

69.61%

29.90%

60.82%

36.67%

8.79%

-6.77%

Gulf

66.07%

33.05%

57.38%

40.13%

8.69%

-7.08%

Baker

77.73%

21.90%

69.16%

28.95%

8.57%

-7.05%

Highlands

62.36%

36.99%

54.72%

42.15%

7.64%

-5.16%

Washington

71.09%

28.09%

63.45%

34.15%

7.63%

-6.06%

Jackson

61.20%

38.15%

53.73%

44.24%

7.47%

-6.09%

Okeechobee

57.28%

42.23%

50.00%

45.84%

7.29%

-3.61%

Citrus

56.86%

42.14%

49.68%

46.32%

7.19%

-4.17%

Jefferson

44.11%

55.29%

36.93%

61.10%

7.18%

-5.81%

Hernando

52.93%

46.16%

46.03%

50.00%

6.90%

-3.84%

Putnam

59.12%

40.08%

52.23%

44.90%

6.88%

-4.82%

Hillsborough

53.00%

46.24%

46.29%

51.42%

6.71%

-5.18%

Polk

58.61%

40.79%

52.28%

44.81%

6.33%

-4.01%

Glades

58.33%

41.02%

52.15%

44.23%

6.18%

-3.21%

Pasco

54.07%

44.39%

48.02%

48.74%

6.05%

-4.34%

Sumter

62.18%

36.39%

57.04%

40.87%

5.14%

-4.49%

Pinellas

49.57%

49.51%

44.47%

52.74%

5.10%

-3.24%

Manatee

56.62%

42.66%

51.53%

45.86%

5.09%

-3.20%

Marion

58.20%

41.00%

53.23%

44.02%

4.97%

-3.02%

Walton

73.22%

25.92%

68.56%

28.94%

4.65%

-3.02%

Gadsden

29.80%

69.72%

25.15%

73.33%

4.64%

-3.61%

DeSoto

58.05%

41.18%

53.55%

43.28%

4.51%

-2.10%

Nassau

72.65%

26.16%

68.41%

29.73%

4.24%

-3.56%

Clay

76.18%

23.27%

72.25%

25.88%

3.93%

-2.61%

Leon

37.85%

61.50%

34.09%

64.64%

3.76%

-3.14%

Lake

60.02%

38.90%

56.38%

40.89%

3.64%

-1.99%

Bay

71.19%

28.08%

67.63%

30.24%

3.55%

-2.16%

Sarasota

53.51%

45.20%

50.08%

48.10%

3.43%

-2.90%

Alachua

42.89%

56.16%

39.63%

58.71%

3.25%

-2.55%

Brevard

57.66%

41.56%

54.44%

42.62%

3.22%

-1.07%

Hendry

58.89%

40.52%

55.76%

41.97%

3.13%

-1.45%

Duval

57.76%

41.65%

54.66%

43.71%

3.10%

-2.05%

Okaloosa

77.65%

21.58%

74.70%

22.53%

2.94%

-0.95%

Flagler

51.03%

48.28%

48.13%

49.49%

2.89%

-1.22%

Santa Rosa

77.35%

21.78%

74.65%

23.04%

2.70%

-1.26%

Volusia

48.85%

50.50%

46.17%

51.09%

2.67%

-0.59%

St. Johns

68.60%

30.59%

66.19%

32.14%

2.41%

-1.55%

Indian River

60.12%

39.03%

57.80%

39.60%

2.32%

-0.57%

St. Lucie

47.56%

51.81%

45.34%

51.70%

2.22%

0.11%

Monroe

49.24%

49.71%

47.19%

49.51%

2.05%

0.21%

Seminole

58.10%

41.34%

56.11%

41.76%

1.99%

-0.42%

Escambia

65.30%

33.74%

63.55%

34.56%

1.74%

-0.83%

Martin

57.09%

41.69%

55.41%

42.35%

1.68%

-0.66%

Palm Beach

39.03%

60.37%

37.95%

60.25%

1.09%

0.12%

Broward

34.60%

64.22%

33.61%

64.39%

0.99%

-0.17%

Orange

49.62%

49.83%

49.16%

48.99%

0.45%

0.84%

Osceola

52.46%

46.99%

52.00%

45.16%

0.45%

1.83%

Charlotte

55.69%

42.93%

55.49%

42.28%

0.20%

0.64%

Lee

59.82%

39.09%

59.81%

38.24%

0.01%

0.84%

Collier

65.04%

34.06%

66.01%

32.43%

-0.97%

1.63%

Miami-Dade

46.66%

52.84%

49.28%

48.96%

-2.62%

3.88%

Totals

52.10%

47.08%

49.44%

48.32%

2.66%

-1.23%

A look at all the data reveals that the top 27 counties showing a greater preference for President Bush than the Repulican Senate candidate were using optical scan voting machines. The two counties that did not show this preference were both using touchscreen voting machines. Both were iVotronic machines manufactured by ES&S.

I have updated my Excel spreadsheet on the site for those interested in examing the numbers themselves. Data in this calculation was taken from the Florida Department of State's Website.

An analysis of the House race as compared to the Presidential race shall follow soon.

1 Comments:

I find this tabulation stunning! It had always been my impression that most people do not vote split tickets. Here we see it happening to a substantial degree in virtually every Florida county, and in every significant case the tickets were split in favor of the same presidential candidate, whether the voter was voting for the Republican or Democratic senatorial candidate. How probable is that vis-a-vis historical data?