I've finally figured out my issue with Bayless as a point guard. I love his drive, and hustle - there is no doubt he lays it on the line every time out. However, I'm not a fan of his demeanour or on-court personality but that is not the issue. There is no doubt he is very athletic and talented from a skill perspective which is great. However, I'm not a fan of his decision making. His confidence in himself is inspiring.

Despite his great stat line versus Charlotte and over the previous 4 games, I found myself not impressed with his play as a point guard. The stats are incredible but here is my issue:

I would like my starting PG to look for teammates before he looks for himself in the first 12-14 seconds of the shot clock - obviously an opportunity within the flow of the game (clear lane, open shot) needs to be taken, I'm not talking about that. I have no problem with a scoring PG within the parameters of team play. A scoring PG who takes liberties with their scoring opportunities because the ball is in their hands earliest and most often is another story.

Too many times, in my opinion, Bayless takes a quick pull up or drives the lane for a contested layup very early in the shot clock or quickly after getting past half. Also too often, in my opinion, he holds the ball dribbling too long missing the split second opportunity to deliver the ball to a teammate when he is open - maybe if basketball treated assists like hockey (last 2 passes before a goal count as assists) he'd be more willing to give the ball up. Finally, in my opinion, I do not like the mentality that he will do it on his own when things break down for the team. There is a very fine line in the good/bad divide with this trait, his confidence is incredible but his execution leaves much to be desired for me - this comes back to the idea of a starting PG looking for teammates in the first half of the shot clock and creating for himself in the second half. When the other team is pulling away, you don't want a quick shot (one dribble pull up, example) early in the clock - it is great when it goes in but shows a poor decision when one misses. When your own team is pulling away or going on a run, you don't want a quick shot (drive versus 3 players for example) early in the clock - if you make the bucket or get fouled it is great but if you miss it shows a poor decision. These are very fine lines I realize, however, making a shot doesn't make it a good shot.

The last 5 games, JB has played great statistically. Unfortunately I don't think the statistics tell the whole story as a starting PG. I've seen all the games except the first half versus Charlotte and the previous paragraph are the things that stick out to me.

Something to consider for those who think he could be the starting PG for the Raptors moving forward beyond this season which also speaks to those who point to his statistics as success:

Great numbers, no doubt. I highlighted the shooting percentages because in the last 5 games he has started, despite shooting just over 54%, he is still shooting just 43% as a starter in 10 games. Off the bench he shoots 39.1%. On the year he is shooting 41.2%. in 225 games played in the NBA he is a career 41% shooter.

At some point, he'll revert back to the mean - the law of averages almost guarantees it. So ask yourself 2 questions and attempt to answer honestly and objectively:

1) do you think he is capable of continuing this shooting pace indefinitely because he now starts? (54.3%)
2) do you think you would feel the same about his prospects as the starting PG of the team had he shot his career and season average of 41% over the last 5 games?

Personally, it makes me a little bit nervous when I see a player perform better individually in losses than in wins.

I hope my message is clear and this makes sense. I really don't hate Jerryd Bayless. I just don't like his game as a starting PG and I don't think his performance over the last 5 games is sustainable.

Sat Mar 17th, 2012, 10:24 PM

Puffer

Quote:

Matt52 wrote:

... I really don't hate Jerryd Bayless. I just don't like his game as a starting PG and I don't think his performance over the last 5 games is sustainable.

I am in the same camp as you. I especially hate it when he decides to take the team on his shoulders and carry them to a win.

Sat Mar 17th, 2012, 10:29 PM

Chr1s1anL

I don't except him to keep up the shooting but, I don't see it falling down to 41. I see him finding a good medium like %45 FG %40 3FG.

I don't want to hate on Calddron or that type of PG but what Calderon's all-time record as a starter? We've tried the pass-first PG and we haven't been successful with that. So why not try something different? His 23, he has like 4 years B4 his in his prime. He can learn how to a better lead guard not a pass first but, lead guard.

Sat Mar 17th, 2012, 10:34 PM

saints91

Matt, I think you, some other posters and I are all expecting a different style of point guard and we observing the same things from game to game. In the first quarter and most halves as a starter Bayless is playing drastically different than how he plays in the second. The first halves are more composed, the ball is out of his hands early in the shot clock and the ball is moving. Everyone is involved. The Raptors have been very good in the first halves of the last 5 games. Bayless has been great!

In the second half the tempo changes. Bayless holds on to the ball later in the shot clock (13-7) and then is either forced to make a pass to a player with a less favourable shot or he tries to take it himself. The other times he is taking quick shots. The offence has been stagnant in the 2nd half of the last five games. The lack of ball movement leaves players cold. It may not show on Bayless' stat sheet, but there is a huge difference between the two halves.

Sat Mar 17th, 2012, 10:50 PM

TheGloveinRapsUniform

Quote:

Puffer wrote:

I am in the same camp as you. I especially hate it when he decides to take the team on his shoulders and carry them to a win.

Sorry, im not being sarcastic or confrontational, but im unsure as to what you're insinuating here.

To me, a win is a win. No matter how ugly or pretty. It's a win, it doesnt have to come wrapped in a bow. If Bayless scores the last 20 points that leads to a win, Im fine with it. If Amir scores the last 20 pts that leads to a win, im fine with it. I think us fans always wants the "right side of things" to happen. Team play, ball movement, players helping each other out, is fine and dandy, but at the end of the day, IMO, most, if not all NBA players really dont care who takes the last shot as long as their team wins.

I actually am glad Bayless is stepping up and trying to close games, coz nobody else on the roster is. Demar has had his hands on the ball in late game situations and he seems to pass up on crucial moments. Everyone in the stadium knows that Bargnani is going to get the ball in late game situations, so when he gets double teamed, somebody else has to step up. And i really dont mind it being Bayless.

Sat Mar 17th, 2012, 11:18 PM

TheGloveinRapsUniform

I agree, and ive seen Bayless do this numerous times in games. I sometimes think that he takes those long twos to kinda lull the defender. He takes a long two, next possession he blows by his defender, thinking he's taking that long two again. But yeah, hanging on to the ball till the end of the shotclock irates me as well.

And this is precisely why im agreeing with the fact that Bayless can be the future starting PG, and not the current starting PG. Ive said before, i really want to see him go through a full training camp and a season of full practices with the roster, because IMO, his deficiencies can be fixed through coaching and chemistry with the players. All Casey has to say is, dont shoot early or dont dribble too long. I think its innate for him shoot, but not when to shoot. He needs that training camp and practices to anticipate where his teammates are going to spot up, where theyre going to cut, when they will anticipate his passes and when he will give those passes. I do agree that he doesnt have the instinct that Calderon does but, with chemistry, he'll know his teammates enough to trust them with his passes.

What he has that you cant teach tho is his quick first step and fearlessness. And his desire to finish games.

Sat Mar 17th, 2012, 11:58 PM

NoPropsneeded

you cant blame him. He does move the ball but half of our guys don't know wtf to do with it. He has to score and he has had some sweet dump offs where he drives and scores and the next time he does the same thing and he dumps it off while the defense is broken down. Tonight's loss was not his fault

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 12:04 AM

NoPropsneeded

some of the things bayless can do are things calderon can never do in a million years. Bayless has got elite speed and can finish at will, he got a sweet pull up jumper. If little things like shooting early in the clock is going to change your mind on bayless starting then thats plain stupid. He only does this when we are in a drought, he knows when and when not to shoot but sometimes i'll admit he does get carried away. A little coaching and camp will fix that easy. I say he is a much better starter for us next season and in the future, him combined with calderon off the bench will be a great change of pace. That duo will Fuck up teams in the playoffs cause it will be such a drastic change in pace that it will throw teams off

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 12:25 AM

ReubenJRD

Quote:

Matt52 wrote:

I've finally figured out my issue with Bayless as a point guard. I love his drive, and hustle - there is no doubt he lays it on the line every time out. However, I'm not a fan of his demeanour or on-court personality but that is not the issue. There is no doubt he is very athletic and talented from a skill perspective which is great. However, I'm not a fan of his decision making. His confidence in himself is inspiring.

Despite his great stat line versus Charlotte and over the previous 4 games, I found myself not impressed with his play as a point guard. The stats are incredible but here is my issue:

I would like my starting PG to look for teammates before he looks for himself in the first 12-14 seconds of the shot clock - obviously an opportunity within the flow of the game (clear lane, open shot) needs to be taken, I'm not talking about that. I have no problem with a scoring PG within the parameters of team play. A scoring PG who takes liberties with their scoring opportunities because the ball is in their hands earliest and most often is another story.

Too many times, in my opinion, Bayless takes a quick pull up or drives the lane for a contested layup very early in the shot clock or quickly after getting past half. Also too often, in my opinion, he holds the ball dribbling too long missing the split second opportunity to deliver the ball to a teammate when he is open - maybe if basketball treated assists like hockey (last 2 passes before a goal count as assists) he'd be more willing to give the ball up. Finally, in my opinion, I do not like the mentality that he will do it on his own when things break down for the team. There is a very fine line in the good/bad divide with this trait, his confidence is incredible but his execution leaves much to be desired for me - this comes back to the idea of a starting PG looking for teammates in the first half of the shot clock and creating for himself in the second half. When the other team is pulling away, you don't want a quick shot (one dribble pull up, example) early in the clock - it is great when it goes in but shows a poor decision when one misses. When your own team is pulling away or going on a run, you don't want a quick shot (drive versus 3 players for example) early in the clock - if you make the bucket or get fouled it is great but if you miss it shows a poor decision. These are very fine lines I realize, however, making a shot doesn't make it a good shot.

The last 5 games, JB has played great statistically. Unfortunately I don't think the statistics tell the whole story as a starting PG. I've seen all the games except the first half versus Charlotte and the previous paragraph are the things that stick out to me.

Something to consider for those who think he could be the starting PG for the Raptors moving forward beyond this season which also speaks to those who point to his statistics as success:

Great numbers, no doubt. I highlighted the shooting percentages because in the last 5 games he has started, despite shooting just over 54%, he is still shooting just 43% as a starter in 10 games. Off the bench he shoots 39.1%. On the year he is shooting 41.2%. in 225 games played in the NBA he is a career 41% shooter.

At some point, he'll revert back to the mean - the law of averages almost guarantees it. So ask yourself 2 questions and attempt to answer honestly and objectively:

1) do you think he is capable of continuing this shooting pace indefinitely because he now starts? (54.3%)
2) do you think you would feel the same about his prospects as the starting PG of the team had he shot his career and season average of 41% over the last 5 games?

Personally, it makes me a little bit nervous when I see a player perform better individually in losses than in wins.

I hope my message is clear and this makes sense. I really don't hate Jerryd Bayless. I just don't like his game as a starting PG and I don't think his performance over the last 5 games is sustainable.

+1. Exactly what I believe. It's not like we don't want him to succeed, but his reliability as a future starting point guard makes us skeptical.

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 12:33 AM

charlesnba23

I can't believe some of you would already forget Calderon after 5 good games of Bayless. For sure Bayless is a good player but he's not giving us any stability, like Calderon is able to do. But my mind already changed a bit on Bayless. Before those games, I said I wouldnt want him back next year. As for now, I say keem em both, then see. Because if we don't keep him, the only other player in free agency that could give us a bit of the same kind of play than him is Mayo and I think we should rather go with Bayless. In a team like the Raptors, the more you have talent, the best it is. So, Calderon, DeRozan, Barnes, Bargnani, Valanciunas, Bayless, Forbes, J.Johnson, A.Johnson, Davis and Gray should all be in the team for at least the beginning of next year, IMO, as for now. Sorry I know this aint the good topic :)

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 01:03 AM

ReubenJRD

Quote:

charlesnba23 wrote:

I can't believe some of you would already forget Calderon after 5 good games of Bayless. For sure Bayless is a good player but he's not giving us any stability, like Calderon is able to do. But my mind already changed a bit on Bayless. Before those games, I said I wouldnt want him back next year. As for now, I say keem em both, then see. Because if we don't keep him, the only other player in free agency that could give us a bit of the same kind of play than him is Mayo and I think we should rather go with Bayless. In a team like the Raptors, the more you have talent, the best it is. So, Calderon, DeRozan, Barnes, Bargnani, Valanciunas, Bayless, Forbes, J.Johnson, A.Johnson, Davis and Gray should all be in the team for at least the beginning of next year, IMO, as for now. Sorry I know this aint the good topic :)

We most definitely haven't forgotten about Calderon. He's injured, I can see why nobody is talking about him, he's not out there playing on the court.

He is a better point guard than Bayless, that's for sure.

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 07:04 AM

mcHAPPY

Quote:

Q: Hi Doug. Haven't been able to watch the last few games. Is Bayless playing as well as the numbers seem to indicate, or is more playing time inflating everything? Any talk among the coaches/management that he could be the answer as the starting PG after this year? Thanks, Keep up the good work.

Matt M, Winnipeg

A: Heís played quite well the last few games but no one Iíve spoken to is thinking long-term starter or anything close to that. What they think, and I agree, is that he could morph in an energy-changing combo guard off the bench; much the same as Barbosa was only younger and cheaper and with vastly superior defensive skills.

That future prospectus is much different than the one Jerryd sees for himself.

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 07:12 AM

Miekenstien

Quote:

charlesnba23 wrote:

I can't believe some of you would already forget Calderon after 5 good games of Bayless. For sure Bayless is a good player but he's not giving us any stability, like Calderon is able to do. But my mind already changed a bit on Bayless. Before those games, I said I wouldnt want him back next year. As for now, I say keem em both, then see. Because if we don't keep him, the only other player in free agency that could give us a bit of the same kind of play than him is Mayo and I think we should rather go with Bayless. In a team like the Raptors, the more you have talent, the best it is. So, Calderon, DeRozan, Barnes, Bargnani, Valanciunas, Bayless, Forbes, J.Johnson, A.Johnson, Davis and Gray should all be in the team for at least the beginning of next year, IMO, as for now. Sorry I know this aint the good topic :)

not everything needs to be a controversy. it is ok to cheer for the whole team. bayless is at 5 games of great ball right now. my downloads finished and i watched the nets and memphis game. he has been playing with in himself. actually like seeing him go at the defense. could be getting way more assists if his team mates were hitting shots. but still get worried when he gets scored on. his competitiveness comes out and he wants it back instantly. has to learn the best way to prove you're better is to win the game. the only shot i see him take that i would try to get him to stop is that stupid early shot clock long 2 or 3. just a waste of a possession. i would like to see over the course of a full season whether or not that shot comes as being beneficial or harmful to the team.

keep up the good play bayless. after jose comes back he will have to put in a great effort off the bench to earn the start.

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 07:50 AM

Puffer

Quote:

Puffer wrote:

...I especially hate it when he decides to take the team on his shoulders and carry them to a win.

Quote:

tbihis wrote:

Sorry, im not being sarcastic or confrontational, but im unsure as to what you're insinuating here.

To me, a win is a win. No matter how ugly or pretty....

In past games Bayless has done this and cost the Raptors games. He gets it into his head that it is on him to win games (I am speculating, because I don't really know what is in his head, but this is the way it looks to me) and then he ignores other players with better looks and take the shot himself. This does two things. It takes his team mates out of the game, so there is no opportunity for them to get back in the flow. and it puts him in a position where he takes low % shots, leading to chances for the other team to get rebounds or collect the ball off of turnovers, run down the other end of the court and score.

All of the great players seem to be able to hoist teams on their shoulders, then shoot at a high %. Bayless thinks he is that kind of player, but he isn't.

Other teams see him entering into that mindset, and they then start sagging off their man, crowding Jarred even harder. Jarred then picks up a couple of offensive fouls, and then REALLY wants to go one-on-one with the man guarding him in some kind of mano-a-mano showdown.

Having said that, I still appreciate his reformation over the last four games. He has been looking for his team mates in the first half lately. I applaud that. I hope he keeps it up. At least we all now know what he is capable of. I would not have believed it 2 weeks ago.

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 08:09 AM

WhatWhat

See, now this criticism is much fairer and grounded. What it comes to is basically immaturity and inexperience. I think you just gotta play him now through mistakes to truly see if he can learn.

But whatever, Baysanity will be over soon. Calderon's coming back soon-apparently on Tuesday.

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 11:47 AM

albertan_10

Bayless being called out by SI

"@ZachLowe_SI: Is Jerryd Bayless aiming for the Andray Blatche "pile up #s in meaningless games on a bad team and get paid" strategy?"

What do you guys think? Zach Lowe have it right?

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 11:52 AM

mcHAPPY

Quote:

albertan_10 wrote:

"@ZachLowe_SI: Is Jerryd Bayless aiming for the Andray Blatche "pile up #s in meaningless games on a bad team and get paid" strategy?"

What do you guys think? Zach Lowe have it right?

I don't think he is consciously doing that. I think Bayless is just playing his game - whether one likes his game or not is not the point (at least in this thread).

One good thing is if Toronto makes adds significant salary prior to July 1st and keeps his rights, some team who does want to throw a big contract at him might be willing to do it as part of a sign and trade giving the Raptors an asset or two. This, of course, assumes Toronto is not interesting in keeping him beyond this season.

If Phoenix loves Aaron Brooks, they might be ecstatic over Bayless.

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 11:53 AM

WhatWhat

He's totally right, except for the actually being extremely efficient and thereby helping the team to win thing. Also how the hell can Bayless command more than MLE type of money?

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 12:01 PM

Apollo

GM's don't always fall for this. Look at Mike James for instance.

Sun Mar 18th, 2012, 12:23 PM

WhatWhat

Mike James was 30, and played quite a few more minutes than B-Rex. Bayless has also been jerked around his whole career without a consistent role. But he's not going to get big money. Not in this golden era of PG play. The only person that would do it is... BC, and considering how much they seem not to trust the guy/pigeonhole him as a Barbosa, even he's not likely to do it.

He ain't getting more than 4/22M, even if he continues to put up these ridiculous stats.