JSSISI: 2001 to 2002, Vol. XXXI, 155th Session http://hdl.handle.net/2262/1098
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 20:19:43 GMT2015-03-03T20:19:43ZJSSISI: 2001 to 2002, Vol. XXXI, 155th Session http://tara.tcd.ie:80/xmlui/bitstream/id/1907/transparentlogo.gifhttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/1098
Globalisation and workers in developing countrieshttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/2938
Globalisation and workers in developing countries
Rama, Martin
Stories of the positive and negative effects of globalisation on workers in
developing countries abound. However, a comprehensive picture is missing and
many of the stories are ideologically charged. This paper reviews the academic
literature on the subject, including several studies currently underway, and derives
the implications for public policy. Firstly, it deals with the effects of openness to
trade, foreign direct investment and financial crises on average wages. Secondly, it
discusses the impact of exposure to world markets on the dispersion of wages by
occupation, skill and gender. Thirdly, it describes the pattern of job destruction and
job creation associated with globalisation. Since these two processes are not
synchronised, the fourth issue addressed is the impact on unemployment rates.
Fifthly, the paper reviews the labour market policies that can be used to offset the
adverse impacts of globalisation on employment and labour earnings. Finally, it
discusses how the international community could encourage developing countries to
adopt sound labour market policies in the context of globalisation.
Read before the Society, 18 April 2002
Tue, 01 Jan 2002 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/29382002-01-01T00:00:00ZSchooling returns, schooling decisions and educational financehttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/2624
Schooling returns, schooling decisions and educational finance
Harmon, Colm
Given the presence of significant returns to education, it would seem
logical to query why individuals choose to leave school early. This paper examines
the evidence on this issue, dealing with both methodological and evidence-based
findings. Drawing on existing research in the area of schooling returns, the evidence
and deficiencies of the literature are explored in an effort to quantify the scale of the
private return to education. The schooling decision is subsequently examined more
closely, so as to investigate the effect of variables such as family income on that
choice. Proposed educational finance solutions are then surveyed. Specifically, this
paper reports on an experimental approach in the UK, which pays allowances to
households and individual students for participation in education, thus reducing the
opportunity cost of staying on at school. Finally, estimates are presented, based on
an analysis of non-experimental UK data, of the probability of early school leaving,
conditional on named variables.
Read before the Society, 16 May 2002.
This lecture is delivered under the auspices of the Barrington Trust (founded by
the bequest of John Barrington, Esq.) with the collaboration of the Journal of the
Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland.
Tue, 01 Jan 2002 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/26242002-01-01T00:00:00ZEvaluating methods for short to medium term county population forecastinghttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/2623
Evaluating methods for short to medium term county population forecasting
Morgenroth, Edgar
Public services provision and land use planning are crucially dependent on
accurate population forecasts. Despite their importance, particularly for planning at the
local level, population forecasts for Irish counties are not readily available. A number
of different methods could be used to calculate such forecasts, but it is not clear which
of these possible methods produces the most accurate forecasts. This paper assesses the
data requirements and methodology involved in the implementation of the various
techniques, and evaluates the forecasting performance of a number of different
methods in terms of the forecast error associated with each method over the period
1991 to 1996. The results of this paper show that simple share extrapolation techniques
perform well compared with the more elaborate cohort component model that is widely
used for national projections.
Read before the Society, 7 March 2001
Tue, 01 Jan 2002 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/26232002-01-01T00:00:00ZA promising timing strategy in equity marketshttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/2622
A promising timing strategy in equity markets
LUCEY, BRIAN MICHAEL; Whelan, Shane F.
In a working paper, Jacobsen and Bouman (2001) claim that that the old
stock market saying of ?sell in May and go away but buy back by St. Leger Day?
produces statistically significant profit when tested on a large database of equity
market returns over the last decade, three decades, and even longer periods. In a
recently published paper, Sullivan, Timmerman and White (2001) dismissed the
statistical significance of this or any other calendar-based trading rule, attributing the
reported test results to a large data mining exercise of the academic and financial
communities. In this paper, we provide an out-of-sample test on the Bouman and
Jacobsen strategy and conclude that the reported results are indeed statistically
significant. In doing so we reintroduce a reliable index of capital returns on the Irish
equity market maintained contemporaneously by the Irish Central Statistical Office
(and its forerunner) since January 1934 which, in its early decades, displays
markedly different statistical properties to both the US and UK equity markets of
that time and equity market returns generally in recent decades. As a subsidiary
exercise we reconsider the extensive literature on monthly seasonality in equity
markets with this novel index. It is contended that the abnormally high returns
frequently reported in January and April and occasionally in February and other
months are perhaps more accurately and certainly more parsimoniously ascribed to
the half-year effect captured in the old stock market adage.
Read before the Society, 4 December 2001
Tue, 01 Jan 2002 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/26222002-01-01T00:00:00Z