Ukraine Predictions (Like them or not)

When Russia announced it was mobilizing its army and navy for “maneuvers,” I gave it 4 days before the reality of what they intended became known. Unfortunately, I was right. Lord knows I wish I had been wrong. And, from here, it just goes off the cliff.

At the end of The Great Game, Crimea will be a “fully autonomous” vassal state of Russia and Eastern (the heavily Russian part) Ukraine will be an independent (but closely aligned) state of Russia. The question now, and for the immediate future, is whether or not Ukraine will acquiesce in the face of an armed Russia or whether many thousands will die in a war that Russia will surely win. Russia has the weight of arms on its side. The West, as incensed as it may be, will be unwilling to enter a situation that could easily spiral into what could easily become a “world war.”

In the stock market, what is going on could be called a market correction. In terms of nation states and population groupings, this is a realignment of the political map. It happens. (Check out the history of the split of West Virginia in the 1800s.) Interests diverge. The question is, do the interests of the people in an area trump national interests… or vice versa?

Regardless, the map of Eastern Europe is changing once again. The issue now is whether the resolution will be peaceful or written in blood.