My point is, Lonzo's individual numbers do not directly represent overall team effect. I don't exactly think Jayson Tatum is turning up pace, making the Celtics an elite rebounding team, better overall with assists, etc., to the level that Lonzo has/did.

Boston's team stats even show percentage difference comparison to the previous year. FT% awesome. 3pt% awesome. Rebounding, greatly improved, but Tatum is 5th best rebounder on the team.

Lakers. Best rebounder on the team. Increased shot volume. Assists up 13.6%. Defensive and overall rebounding even better than Boston #2 for each in the league. Blocks up 21%, Zo is the 2nd best swatter on the team.

My favorite part of all of this is, despite how incredibly streaky/inconsistent Lonzo Ball's shooting has been all season, the Lakers improved by 1.1% in 2-point shots and got worse by a whopping 0.001% behind the arc.

My point is, Lonzo's individual numbers do not directly represent overall team effect. I don't exactly think Jayson Tatum is turning up pace, making the Celtics an elite rebounding team, better overall with assists, etc., to the level that Lonzo has/did.

Sorry Mike I wasn't directing my question at your post but to the purpose of comparing the players stats in their rookie years.

My point is, Lonzo's individual numbers do not directly represent overall team effect. I don't exactly think Jayson Tatum is turning up pace, making the Celtics an elite rebounding team, better overall with assists, etc., to the level that Lonzo has/did.

Boston's team stats even show percentage difference comparison to the previous year. FT% awesome. 3pt% awesome. Rebounding, greatly improved, but Tatum is 5th best rebounder on the team.

Lakers. Best rebounder on the team. Increased shot volume. Assists up 13.6%. Defensive and overall rebounding even better than Boston #2 for each in the league. Blocks up 21%, Zo is the 2nd best swatter on the team.

My favorite part of all of this is, despite how incredibly streaky/inconsistent Lonzo Ball's shooting has been all season, the Lakers improved by 1.1% in 2-point shots and got worse by a whopping 0.001% behind the arc.

Imagine that effect over 82 games.

Thanks for this. Never studied his numbers and while I could see the talent this puts it into black and white how he impact on the team.

I think I found that DLO fan who stopped posting once DLO was traded. He followed DLO to Brooklyn and became a Nets fan.

Maybe you can track down Dave20. I assume he's now a Cavs fan, correct?_________________“Christ did not die to forgive sinners who go on treasuring anything above seeing and savoring God. And people who would be happy in heaven if Christ were not there, will not be there."
- John Piper

Stock & Kidd, Cp3, and Rondo combined for 63+ Seasons and only 2 rings which came at the end of Kidd's career as a ring chaser and Rondo with KG, Pierce, and Allen. Are we overvaluing Lonzo's skill set?

Assuming Lonzo reaches their status, we are betting on a %3.17 winning style.

Especially in an era of versatility and positionless basketball where everyone on the floor must be able to get you 3-5 assist per game. I feel like that skillset is overvalued. If you have a good system where you swing the ball around and always move the ball up in transition you will be fine as a passing team.

Give me Tatum's 24ppg in his prime with a 3-5 assist over a 10 apg player.

Stock & Kidd, Cp3, and Rondo combined for 63+ Seasons and only 2 rings which came at the end of Kidd's career as a ring chaser and Rondo with KG, Pierce, and Allen. Are we overvaluing Lonzo's skill set?

Assuming Lonzo reaches their status, we are betting on a %3.17 winning style.

Especially in an era of versatility and positionless basketball where everyone on the floor must be able to get you 3-5 assist per game. I feel like that skillset is overvalued. If you have a good system where you swing the ball around and always move the ball up in transition you will be fine as a passing team.

Give me Tatum's 24ppg in his prime with a 3-5 assist over a 10 apg player.

He will be a top 10 player very soon, same thing with ingram he needs to get that melo jab though

you're doing a lot of math but you're missing the math that separates him from pretty much any pg that ever played assuming Zo keeps progressing.

Zo does something that other pgs only do or did(the greats) once in a while. and thats push the ball up the court without a lot of dribbles. my favorite pg and possibly my favorite player of all time Magic Johnson dribbled a lot. CP3 who i love. pounds the ball a lot. Jkidd was closer to zo's style of see it quickly and make that pass quickly. steve nash dribble a bit too much at times as well.

This is a thing with these super pg's. they dribble a lot until they see the perfect setup so they can pass that person the ball for the basket. ZO plays like a coach. If he sees a play before it happens. he will forward the ball up the court to another player who has the best angle for the next pass for the score, or he will fling it up court early directly to the streaking player. Zo does the first part in half court as well. If he knows the guy in the corner has a better angle. he wont dribble from the top to the corner and make the corner guy move out(cp3 does this, magic use to do this, nash would do this). Zo would just pass the ball quickly to the guy with the best angle to make the pass. Which means he will never get that assist aka hockey assist. This means whatever value you are drawing from assists per player will not give you Zo's true value. You have to include hockey assists. Zo can make an entire team of players assists go up because he will hit them where they have the perfect angle to hit a teammate. where in the past they had to create those situations on their own. now they no longer have to do that.

You can't put a weight on how freerer a team will play when the other guys dont have to worry about doing a lot to get other guys the ball. when a team also doesnt have to worry about if they are in the pg's way and if they need to clear out and kill off their chance of scoring or making a play for others. we dont know what level of impact that has on a team outside from watching Zo change UCLA's culture over night. then him doing the exact same thing with the summer league team over night and him doing it yet again with the lakers while he shot like crap. In theory I agree with you, regular pg's dont get it done. the problem is you forgot he's 6'6 to 6'7. he's not a regular pg. he's leaning towards magic's level due to the height. When you have a guy thats this tall with that kind of passing ability. he's no longer just a great passer. It means he can guard multiple positions but also cover a PF for a half a second on a bad switch and could possibly make the big mis and rebound the miss shot or sneak block the big(we've seen this from zo.)

Rondo was a good defender, so was Jkidd. cp3 is pretty good too. but those guys are 6'4 and shorter. as good as jkidd was, if he got switched onto a PF he was toast period. same with rondo, same with cp3. cp3 and rondo couldnt guard SF's at all. not guys that know how to score at least. Zo could due to his physical attributes. Zo is basically a SG/SF running point.

This. Times a bajillion. Elementary basketball 101-a pass up the court is always faster than dribbling. Even in the half court, if Lonzo see's an ideal situation for a skip pass or just catches the defense rotating late, he'll zing it immediately. He's like a robot, and he knows when to take the extra dribbles to put himself in position to make a play also. It is near impossible to teach instincts like those.

I just realised that it's possible that Boston could end up with 4 All-Stars this season.

Kyrie, Tatum, Horford, Hayward

if that happens, the finals could possibly be 5v4 or 4v4 All Stars.

and no guys, I don't expect our beloved team to pull off an upset this season.

1. Hayward's all-star days are done he was a borderline all-star BEFORE he was hurt doubt he will one this year.
2. Horford is also borderline. if he plays at last year's level he will have a case as the vet leader ...but if Kyrie is healthy and Tatum and brown keep improving not sure he will do enough to be an All-star.
3. Simmons and Kawhi will likely take two All-star spots even if you remove DeRozan that still leaves: Wall, Beal, Embiid, Lowry, Giannis, Love, Drummond, Blake, Porzingis, Kemba, Middleton, plus all the Celts. Not impossible for Hayward to make it if 100% healthy but my best guess would be 3 Celts make it maybe 4 but if so won't be Hayword.

Last edited by Killakobe81 on Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:26 pm; edited 1 time in total

I just realised that it's possible that Boston could end up with 4 All-Stars this season.

Kyrie, Tatum, Horford, Hayward

if that happens, the finals could possibly be 5v4 or 4v4 All Stars.

and no guys, I don't expect our beloved team to pull off an upset this season.

1. Hayward's all-star days are done he was a borderline all-star BEFORE he was hurt doubt he will one this year.
2. Horford is also borderline. if he plays at last year's level he will have a case as the vet leader ...but if Kyrie is healthy and Tatum and brown keep improving not sure he will do enough to be an All-star.
3. Simmons and Kawhi will likely take two All-star spots even if you remove DeRozan that still leaves: Wall, Beal, Embiid, Lowry, Giannis, Love, Drummond, Blake, Porzingis, Kemba, Middleton, plus all the Celts. Not impossible for Hayward to make it if 100% healthy but my best guess would be 3 Celts make it maybe 4 but if so won't be Horford.

I just realised that it's possible that Boston could end up with 4 All-Stars this season.

Kyrie, Tatum, Horford, Hayward

if that happens, the finals could possibly be 5v4 or 4v4 All Stars.

and no guys, I don't expect our beloved team to pull off an upset this season.

1. Hayward's all-star days are done he was a borderline all-star BEFORE he was hurt doubt he will one this year.
2. Horford is also borderline. if he plays at last year's level he will have a case as the vet leader ...but if Kyrie is healthy and Tatum and brown keep improving not sure he will do enough to be an All-star.
3. Simmons and Kawhi will likely take two All-star spots even if you remove DeRozan that still leaves: Wall, Beal, Embiid, Lowry, Giannis, Love, Drummond, Blake, Porzingis, Kemba, Middleton, plus all the Celts. Not impossible for Hayward to make it if 100% healthy but my best guess would be 3 Celts make it maybe 4 but if so won't be Horford.

I just realised that it's possible that Boston could end up with 4 All-Stars this season.

Kyrie, Tatum, Horford, Hayward

if that happens, the finals could possibly be 5v4 or 4v4 All Stars.

and no guys, I don't expect our beloved team to pull off an upset this season.

1. Hayward's all-star days are done he was a borderline all-star BEFORE he was hurt doubt he will one this year.
2. Horford is also borderline. if he plays at last year's level he will have a case as the vet leader ...but if Kyrie is healthy and Tatum and brown keep improving not sure he will do enough to be an All-star.
3. Simmons and Kawhi will likely take two All-star spots even if you remove DeRozan that still leaves: Wall, Beal, Embiid, Lowry, Giannis, Love, Drummond, Blake, Porzingis, Kemba, Middleton, plus all the Celts. Not impossible for Hayward to make it if 100% healthy but my best guess would be 3 Celts make it maybe 4 but if so won't be Horford.

I just realised that it's possible that Boston could end up with 4 All-Stars this season.

Kyrie, Tatum, Horford, Hayward

if that happens, the finals could possibly be 5v4 or 4v4 All Stars.

and no guys, I don't expect our beloved team to pull off an upset this season.

1. Hayward's all-star days are done he was a borderline all-star BEFORE he was hurt doubt he will one this year.
2. Horford is also borderline. if he plays at last year's level he will have a case as the vet leader ...but if Kyrie is healthy and Tatum and brown keep improving not sure he will do enough to be an All-star.
3. Simmons and Kawhi will likely take two All-star spots even if you remove DeRozan that still leaves: Wall, Beal, Embiid, Lowry, Giannis, Love, Drummond, Blake, Porzingis, Kemba, Oladipo, plus all the Celts. Not impossible for Hayward to make it if 100% healthy but my best guess would be 3 Celts make it maybe 4 but if so won't be Horford.

Porzingis and Blake might not play enough games, Horford has a chance

Forgot Myles Turner

I actually forgot Oladipo but if you think Myles should have been included that's two more ..no way Hayward makes the all-star team.

I suspect the off-season leads to lots of water cooler talk. Then mix in the always fun, "I wish our team drafted prospect A" and I think you get a ton of weird and wild talk.

My thoughts on some of what has been said:
1. There is no data or information which could be culled, I don't think, which would show Tatum would have had the same analytic effect or better for the Lakers as he did for the Celtics. The claim Tatum would have "had the Lakers in the playoffs" is far fetched, I believe, given the analytics. Tatum's BPM certainly doesn't suggest that he would have helped with the wins. His low assist numbers don't either. There is no data, one way or another, which suggests Tatum would have shot as effectively with the Lakers as he did for the Celtics -- in a system with Irving, Horford, Brown, and Smart.
2. I have no idea why people suggest Tatum will be an allstar next year. He averaged 13.9 ppg as a rookie who was only asked to score. He averaged 1.6 assists per game. He, despite being 6'8 and averaging 30.5 mpg, averaged 5 rebounds per game. His VORP was a 1.8. It would take a significant jump for Tatum to be deemed an allstar, even in the East.
3. To me, and I think analytics people likely agree, there is far more value in a PG than a SF and PGs ultimately take more time to develop. In other words, I think a rookie 20 year old PG who can average 10/7/7 etc as has far, far more current and future value than a rookie 20 year old SF who averaged 14/5/1.6. The highest RPM players are often PGs. I just don't quite understand why there is viewed as the chasm, when Ball statistically was better than Tatum in every category except scoring/shooting. Stated another way but in the positive: Anyone saying Tatum is soon to be an allstar should say the same thing about Ball at this stage (and even dropping DPOY references -- if hyperbolic statements are the current rage) of their respective careers. Not doing so is, I think, focusing on a box score watching, scoring-centric view of the NBA.

Still, it will be fun to come back here half way through the season and see where all of this shakes out. But I'm willing to bet Ball with Lebron will surprise.

I suspect the off-season leads to lots of water cooler talk. Then mix in the always fun, "I wish our team drafted prospect A" and I think you get a ton of weird and wild talk.

My thoughts on some of what has been said:
1. There is no data or information which could be culled, I don't think, which would show Tatum would have had the same analytic effect or better for the Lakers as he did for the Celtics. The claim Tatum would have "had the Lakers in the playoffs" is far fetched, I believe, given the analytics. Tatum's BPM certainly doesn't suggest that he would have helped with the wins. His low assist numbers don't either. There is no data, one way or another, which suggests Tatum would have shot as effectively with the Lakers as he did for the Celtics -- in a system with Irving, Horford, Brown, and Smart.
2. I have no idea why people suggest Tatum will be an allstar next year. He averaged 13.9 ppg as a rookie who was only asked to score. He averaged 1.6 assists per game. He, despite being 6'8 and averaging 30.5 mpg, averaged 5 rebounds per game. His VORP was a 1.8. It would take a significant jump for Tatum to be deemed an allstar, even in the East.
3. To me, and I think analytics people likely agree, there is far more value in a PG than a SF and PGs ultimately take more time to develop. In other words, I think a rookie 20 year old PG who can average 10/7/7 etc as has far, far more current and future value than a rookie 20 year old SF who averaged 14/5/1.6. The highest RPM players are often PGs. I just don't quite understand why there is viewed as the chasm, when Ball statistically was better than Tatum in every category except scoring/shooting. Stated another way but in the positive: Anyone saying Tatum is soon to be an allstar should say the same thing about Ball at this stage (and even dropping DPOY references -- if hyperbolic statements are the current rage) of their respective careers. Not doing so is, I think, focusing on a box score watching, scoring-centric view of the NBA.

Still, it will be fun to come back here half way through the season and see where all of this shakes out. But I'm willing to bet Ball with Lebron will surprise.

Good stuff.
1. I also question an automatic insertion of Tatum or Brown in ASG and I LOVE Tatum. Unless Celts win well over 60 games I don't see how they get 4 all-stars but even if they did my guess Hayward/Brown/Tatum someone is going to have to sacrifice touches/productions/mins

2. My love of Tatum is not because he fits better or would have done more for Lakers sometimes its just a felling/instinct. I just feel he has "star" potential. Lonzo does too. But I just think Tatum is more of a "sure thing".

3. Last years playoff success for Tatum or Lonzo's Regular season analytics advantage doesnt chame my mind yet. Neither proves to me who will be better long-term. It's just one year.

4. An argument can be made that with Ingram on the roster and drafting Kuzma Lonzo was a better "fit"... but as bad as we have been the past few years Lakers have no business drafting for "fit" we should take the BPA, period. Not saying that is Tatum ...yet. But that is what I thought before the draft.

5. And despite what Mitchell did as rookie I would still take Ball, one year doesnt change my mind that way either.