Florida Is Tale Of Two Primaries

Look for Republican blitz, but not much from top Democrats

January 10, 2008|By Anthony Man Political Writer

On the Republican side, expect John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani to pop up everywhere. Plan on a barrage of television spots clogging the airwaves. And look for rallies, town hall forums and bus tours.

Florida's primaries will be held Jan. 29. Already, said state Rep. David Rivera, a Republican who represents part of south Broward, "it's hard to turn on the news on any particular day in different cities in Florida and not see Republican presidential candidates campaigning throughout the state."

On the Democratic side, here's what to expect: nothing.

"As much as I would love to see our Democratic front-runners appearing in Florida, I'd be surprised if any of them crossed the border and into our state," said Mitch Ceasar, chairman of the Broward Democratic Party and a Democratic National Committee member.

It all adds up to a bizarre dichotomy between the Democratic and Republican parties as they prepare for the Florida primaries in which voters will pick whom they want to get the nominations for president.

Florida could be pivotal because of its timing a week before what some are calling "Tsunami Tuesday," with so many primaries that the contests could be settled Feb. 5.

"Whoever wins Florida will have all that momentum [going into Feb. 5]," said state Sen. Jeremy Ring, D-Parkland, who sponsored legislation setting Florida's new primary date.

The Democrats

When Florida set its Jan. 29 date, the traditional early states, including Iowa and New Hampshire, pressed Democratic candidates to avoid the Sunshine State. They were so afraid of upsetting voters in early states - who guard what they regard as their prerogative to vote early and shape the candidate field - that they agreed not to visit Florida except to raise money.

So far, there are no indications Democrats plan to violate the boycott. "I am not hearing any weakening," said state Sen. Nan Rich, D-Weston, one of Florida's earliest and strongest supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In the absence of candidates, voters must find other ways to make decisions.

Surrogates, such as local elected officials, will play prominent roles. Cable television will be a factor. And Rich said it means increased reliance on the Internet to recruit supporters and disseminate information.

Ceasar predicted one result would be an increase in old-fashioned conversation over the dinner table, at work, and at neighborhood gatherings. He said he thinks that will be a more important factor than it has been in the decades since television came to dominate campaigns.

Stephen Craig, a political science professor at the University of Florida, said voters won't have any problem learning everything they need to know, even without candidate appearances. He said in person, so-called retail campaigning has never played much of a role in Florida anyway.

"Given how ubiquitous the coverage has been and the debates have been, voters who have been paying attention are not having any trouble learning who the candidates are and what they're all about."

Ring said the absence of Democratic candidates is actually no different than it ever has been. In previous elections, the nominations had been decided well before Florida's primary.

"Candidates never campaigned here for our votes, but they came here for fundraisers. How is it any different? We didn't lose anything from a purely practical standpoint," he said.

The Republicans

Republicans will have a contest that looks more like the candidate-filled frenzy voters have seen televised from other states.

Rivera, a Huckabee supporter who is also a state Republican committeeman, said five candidates could be considered viable: Huckabee, Giuliani, McCain, Mitt Romney and even Fred Thompson, who finished in sixth place with 1 percent of the vote in New Hampshire.

Romney has decided to pull his advertising from South Carolina and Florida, The Associated Press quoted campaign spokesman Kevin Madden as saying Wednesday.

For now, Rivera expects them all to campaign in Florida, but that could change after upcoming contests in Nevada and South Carolina force some out of the race. "If you ask me on January 19th, I may have a different answer for you," he said.

State Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff, R-Fort Lauderdale, said the split results in the leadoff states have created a broad field.

The Iowa victory by Huckabee and the New Hampshire win by McCain - whom she is supporting - mean they're likely to be players in Florida, along with Giuliani, who has made Florida the centerpiece of his campaign strategy after he started fading in New Hampshire weeks ago.

The only thing certain at this point is that it's impossible to predict which Republican candidates will actively be seeking Florida votes in the days before the primary.

"The numbers have moved dramatically and they're going to continue to move. Every time there's a debate and every time the candidates are in front of the cameras, something happens and you see movement," Bogdanoff said.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sun-sentinel.com or 954-356-4550.

ONLINE

Read more about the New Hampshire primaries' potential effects on Florida and what political leaders expect here. Go to the Broward political blog at Sun-Sentinel.com/browardpolitics