CHILLICOTHE - Making any predictions about March Madness can often be like finding a needle in a haystack.

However, local resident, former Gazette sports editor and self-proclaimed West Virginia fan Bob Dehner continues his search for the coveted needle.

For the past six years, Dehner has attempted to correctly guess the first 16 teams that will be included in the NCAA Tournament field. But this year, he's taken an already tall task to a new height; predicting all 68 teams that are to be included.

"This year, I've started to notice that multiple outlets predict tournament brackets like CBS, USA Today, EPSN and so on," Dehner said. "I looked at it and thought I could maybe run it all the way out. I like doing puzzles. This is like a big puzzle to me. You're trying to get 68 pieces to come together in one spot, but you've got 80 pieces of the puzzle. It was just something to do and something that I had fun doing."

Dehner approaches his predictions based on Basketball Power Index (BPI) and Ratings Percentage Index (RPI).

BPI is a team rating system that includes the final score, site, pace of play, strength of opponent and absence of important players in every Division I men's basketball game. RPI takes three factors into consideration: a team's winning percentage against Division I opponents (25 percent of RPI), a team's opponents' winning percentage against Division I teams (50 percent), and a team's opponents' opponents' Division I winning percentage (25 percent).

Confused yet? The NCAA Selection Committee uses both of these rating systems to determine the eventual field of 68.

"It varies," he said. "I do the BPI and RPI, but I'm not big on schedule strength because everybody is tied into their conference schedules. But then you look at what they did against the top 25, top 50, and top 100. Then you look at the conference strength and you play with it. It's not all mathematics down the line. You have to use common sense in some situations. But now, with all of these top seeds falling in lower conferences, it's really screwing everything up."

To illustrate how many factors go into each team's NCAA Tournament plea, take the University of North Carolina for example; Dehner believes it will be awarded a top-seed in this year's NCAA Tournament field.

As of Friday, ESPN.com had North Carolina (26-6) as the No. 1 ranked team in terms of BPI at 89.9 and the No. 8 ranked team in terms of RPI. Factors that go into those calculations are as follows: conference rank (1), strength of schedule (66.1), strength of schedule rank (27), variation (7.2), non-conference strength of schedule (79), conference RPI (8), record against the top 25 RPI teams (3-3), record against RPI teams ranked 26-50 (0-2), record against RPI teams ranked 51-100 (11-1), offensive quotient (12.9), defensive quotient (2.4), and adjusted scoring margin (15.3).

"There's a lot of thought that goes into it," Dehner said. "It changes daily. You've got teams like Wichita State, Valparaiso, and Monmouth who are 'out here'. Is Monmouth worth going into the field? No. But that's just my opinion. I was trying to update my selections every day, just to see how everything changed. But it changes like spots on a leopard. Then you get into trying to guess where they're going to play in the first round and that throws something else into it."

In Dehner's case, he just wants to see how many teams he can get right in their exact spots against their exact opponents in their exact regions.

"My wife says I spend too many hours on it," Dehner said, laughing. "But all the way through, I actually haven't watched that many basketball games. I've got the remote going each night, though. I go to FOX, CBS, ESPN, ESPNU, ESPN2 and so on. You try to look at as my teams as you can when you're doing this."

If you're wondering, Dehner believes either North Carolina or Villanova will walk away with this year's NCAA championship title.

"North Carolina just has a team," Dehner said. "They have the height, the guards, and the coach. Villanova just plays solid basketball. They're a former Big East team and that used to be, by far, the best conference in the sport. There's probably only about four to five teams who I think have a legit shot at winning it. The two I mentioned, Virginia, Oklahoma, and I don't think you can count out Kentucky. It's tournament time, a different season."

For the Ohio State fans out there, Dehner's synopsis is a grim one.

"As of last week, the Buckeyes were making a move," he said. "But when they lost to Michigan State, their chances went way down of getting in. I think they have to win the Big Ten Tournament to get in."

Dehner's 'First Four In' are Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut and Oregon State. His 'First Four Out' included St. Bonaventure and Gonzaga. His top four seeds are Virginia, Kansas, Villanova and North Carolina.

But that can, and probably will, drastically change.

"It's so crazy now that I print my own brackets out so I can follow it," Dehner said. "But being a former sports writer, it's March Madness. That's the best time of the year. You wait until the conference tournaments are over and on Sunday, all you're doing is watching the clock. Then after the bracket pairings, you start to analyze everything. Then you wait for Tuesday because that's the beginning of the first round."

Dehner will find out just how correct his predictions are this Sunday when the NCAA Selection Committee releases its tournament field at 5:30 p.m.

"These guys on TV can't even agree on who the first four are. It's good for television and good for newspapers. But the only opinion that matters is the selection committee's. Doing this makes you realize how tough of a job they have."