Text Size

SIREN -- “Republicans still seen falling behind in election data wars,” by Reuters’ Gabriel Debenedetti: “Democrats appear set to maintain their technological edge … in the 2014 midterm elections … It is not that the Republicans are not trying. The [RNC] is spending ‘tens of millions of dollars,’ spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski says, to ‘change the culture of our data and digital program’ with new data analysis teams in Washington and Silicon Valley. … [C]onservative groups funded by big-money donors such as … Charles and David Koch continue to have their own digital teams, typically focused more on issues -- such as … healthcare overhaul -- than on individual candidates.

“But … campaigns and other groups often do not share information about voters and tactics. And even as party leaders are aggressively pursuing a new digital game plan, Republican strategists acknowledge that some conservative candidates and their supporters remain wary of changing tactics they have used for years, such as reaching voters through television ads and door-to-door campaigning …

“[S]everal of Obama's former digital and data staffers are turning their sights on 2014 … Teddy … Goff's firm, Precision Strategies, has been hired by the campaign of Charlie Crist … In Wisconsin, BlueLabs, which includes Obama 2012 data engineers Chris Wegrzyn and Daniel Porter, has gone to work for Mary Burke. She is the Democrat challenging conservative Republican Governor Scott Walker … 270 Strategies, … led by … battleground states director Mitch Stewart and national field director Jeremy Bird[,] has signed on to help Democrat Wendy Davis' long-shot bid for Texas governor … The 270 Strategies firm also is working for Ready for Hillary. http://goo.gl/35Za3v

BREAKING: “Louise Burke, President and Publisher of Threshold Editions, an imprint of Simon & Schuster, announced today the publication of Matt Katz’s biography of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Matt Katz has covered Chris Christie extensively as a reporter. For three years he wrote stories about Christie almost daily for the Philadelphia Inquirer while posting more than 500 entries in his blog, ‘The Christie Chronicles.’ … Katz recently left the Inquirer to cover Christie for WNYC and New Jersey Public Radio. … The currently untitled biography is scheduled for publication in Spring 2015.”

MIDTERM BUZZ – “How Republicans can win the Senate in 2014” – WashPost “The Monkey Cage” blog: “A Senate forecasting model developed by John Sides, Eric McGhee and Ben Highton shows that nationally, Republicans have a 54 percent chance of picking up the six additional seats they need to take control of the Senate.”

--BEN HIGHTON, a political scientist at University of California, Davis, elaborating in a guest post on “Monkey Cage”: “Our model suggests … if Republicans win the Senate elections in only four states — Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa, and Montana — then they are very likely to take control of the chamber.” http://goo.gl/LblutP

--NO DUH, dude. You don’t need a MODEL to tell you that. But that doesn’t translate to a current LIKELIHOOD of getting the majority. (Before primaries are done! So good.)

--JIM VANDEHEI on “Morning Joe,” laughing at the topline forecast: “A lot of those states are definitely competitive … but … not slam dunks for the Republican Party. … You essentially have to go through and sweep those states for Republicans to have a majority. … [O]ther than West Virginia and South Dakota, none of them are slam dunks. And some of them are quite difficult.”

--PLAYBOOK FACTS OF LIFE: Republicans intimately involved in the races say their actual chances are probably still around 45% (maybe 54% was a typo!), up from 10% this fall. (When we asked a friend if he’s make it 40 or 45, he replied, in the spirit of the day: “42.5.”)

--PLAYBOOK IN-BOX – A tippy-top GOP strategist emails: “I'd give it at least 50. Think of it this way: 7 races are in states Romney carried. 6 of them, he carried by DOUBLE DIGITS. Midterm turnout models and lack of an Obama organization makes states outside of those 7 (MI, IA, NH, MN, CO, OR) very competitive. Ultimately the map is starting to get too large [for Dems] to defend -- not there yet. But if Scott Brown or another state comes online, it will be close to a tipping point.”

CRYSTAL BALL CONTEST – NOON DEADLINE! POLITICO Magazine wants your take: Which Republican is most likely to be the ’16 nominee, and what are his or her strengths and weaknesses? Email magazinesubmissions@politico.com, and the magazine will post the best answers.

** A message from USA Network’s Characters Unite: Nominate an unsung, community hero working to stop hate and discrimination for a 2014 Characters Unite Award. Ten honorees will be recognized on USA Network and receive a $5,000 grant to further their efforts to promote respect and acceptance. Go to www.charactersunite.com for details before the March 31st entry deadline! **

JAMIE SMITH, departing today as deputy White House press secretary, was feted after yesterday’s briefing with champagne and Martha Kumar's killer rum cake in the press room basement, with toasts all around. White House Correspondents’ Association President Steve Thomma praised Jamie for keeping a cheery disposition even on the toughest of days. Vice President Christi Parsons thanked her for her many efforts to make briefings more plentiful and more inclusive, and for helping us with day-to-day workspace concerns. (Her work on the workspace issues was effective partly because it was invisible. But just to cite one example: Without her, we never would have figured out how to set up that lactation room for working mothers in the press corps.)

GRIDIRON PRESIDENT CLARK HOYT emails members: “I'm excited to announce that Secretary of State John Kerry will speak at the 2014 Gridiron Spring Dinner [on March 8], representing the Obama Administration. I want to thank my Bloomberg colleague Al Hunt and Andrea Mitchell of NBC, who worked so effectively to get Secretary Kerry for our dinner. This represents a return to the Gridiron podium for the Secretary of State. As a Senator from Massachusetts, he was the Democratic speaker in 1999. Best, Clark.”

REAGAN ALUMNI NEWS: A Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation birthday salute in Los Angeles included a Marine honor guard laying a wreath on Reagan’s grave, a 21-gun salute and flyover, followed by lunch. On the “South Lawn” of the Reagan Library, Bill Bennett gave a tribute along with his wife, Elayne. Their son, Joe Bennett (Genevieve Ryan's classmate from Princeton '11), is now a Marine officer and was part of the wreath-laying. Classic "Reagan weather". The forecast was for rain. It was bright and sunny during the ceremony and rained nonstop the rest of the day. Overflow crowd of friends and former Reagan administration officials. Nancy Reagan did not make it to the library for the ceremony, but heard from friends throughout the day.

SUCCESS STORIES -- “John Del Cecato, the consultant behind the ad that put Bill de Blasio's family into New Yorkers' living rooms, builds his business on the back of a big win,” by Chris Bragg in Crain’s New York Business: “Del Cecato produced many of the television ads that propelled Barack Obama to the presidency in 2008 and 2012. But Mayor Bill de Blasio's election in 2013 -- spurred by Mr. Del Cecato's much-loved spot featuring Dante de Blasio and his famous Afro -- proved especially meaningful professionally. ‘We're showing that New York City is a mecca not just for media and finance, but also political consulting,’ Mr. Del Cecato said. His big wins have helped the ad man, a resident of the East Village, grow AKPD Message and Media … into larger offices on Sixth Avenue. …

“Del Cecato is a protégé of David Axelrod, who founded AKPD before joining the Obama administration. Mr. Axelrod's advice: Find the best candidate, then persuade him to hire you.” http://goo.gl/v5KC0R

--FLASHBACK – Playbook, writing Tuesday in POLITICO Pro’s CEO Report: “DON’T BUY THE HYPE from pundits about broad immigration reform suddenly looking more likely. Speaker John Boehner would love to do something ambitious but Republicans who were at [last week’s] retreat said there's limited appetite beyond the piecemeal bills that have long been talked about … And even those may not pass.”

--A top Republican aide: “The speaker thinks it should be fixed. But he’s realistic about the situation inside our conference. Even if we wrote a law that fixed it, it’s hugely questionable whether the administration would enforce it.”

BIG-SCREEN TAPPER? Release: “Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson, Oscar nominated screenwriters of ‘The Fighter,’ have acquired the rights to … ‘THE OUTPOST: An Untold Story of American Valor,’ written by … Jake Tapper, CNN's chief Washington correspondent and host of the highly acclaimed show, ‘The Lead.’ ‘THE OUTPOST’ is an eye-opening account of what really happened at Combat Outpost Keating on October 3, 2009, one of America's deadliest battles in Afghanistan. … Tapper spent nearly two years investigating the events, … interviewing more than 225 individuals who played important roles both at home and abroad, as well as traveling to Afghanistan himself. … ‘We were immediately struck by the gripping accounts of our troops? self-sacrifice and heroism,’ Tamasy said … Jake Tapper is represented by Bob Barnett.”

FIRST LOOK: “Peet's Coffee & Tea … announced that it has signed on with Washington government relations firm Heather Podesta + Partners. The firm will introduce the company to policymakers, and represent Peet’s on a variety of topics related to the coffee industry. Also, they will advise the company on its upcoming Washington, D.C. market launch. Peet’s will open over 20 new stores in the Washington D.C. area later this spring, including one near the White House, converting former Caribou Coffee locations to Peet’s Coffee & Tea stores.”

MEDIAWATCH -- “Josh Elliott wants big raise at ‘GMA,’” by Emily Smith on N.Y. Post Page Six: “‘Elliott is in tense contract negotiations with ABC after upping his demand for a salary raise equivalent to that of co-anchor Robin Roberts. Sources tell Page Six that after Roberts closed a long-term contract with ABC, worth about $14 million a year, agents for Elliott have upped their demand for ‘an equally significant bump in salary.’ One source told us, ‘[H]is role has increased significantly and he is an integral part of the success of the show. He is not asking for as much money as Robin, but an equivalent raise.’ … [H]is reps have also talked to NBC.” http://goo.gl/9iUai0

--JAMES CARVILLE TO FOX – Release: “FOX News Channel (FNC) has hired Democratic strategist James Carville as a contributor, announced Bill Shine, Executive Vice President of Programming … Carville will appear across various programming offering political commentary on the news of the day. … During the last decade, Carville transitioned his work from domestic political campaigns to foreign consulting and eventually television, serving as a political contributor to CNN. … Currently a political science professor at Tulane University, Carville is also the author of several books, including … ‘Love & War: Twenty Years, Three Presidents, Two Daughters and One Louisiana Home,’ which he co-authored with his wife, Republican strategist Mary Matalin. Carville earned a B.A. and J.D. from Louisiana State University.”

DESSERT -- L.A. Times second front, “Critic’s Notebook: Leno calls it a late night: There was a bit of crazy over the course of his last hour, but it was mostly business as usual with old pals,” by Television Critic Robert Lloyd: “Billy Crystal, Leno's first ‘Tonight Show’ guest, was also his last, not counting show-closing singer Garth Brooks, whose solid bearing and mainstream appeal resemble Leno's own. Once he hit the stage, Crystal, whose energy expands to whatever the space requires, effectively drove the show. He was funny and sweet and recalled the scuffling days when Leno, still living in Boston, provided a place for other comics to crash and kept a poster of Robert Klein over his bed. He led a parade of famous faces in a parody of ‘So Long, Farewell’ from ‘The Sound of Music.’ … Oprah Winfrey, arriving like Mozart's Queen of the Night. ‘If you were me,’ she sang, ‘you'd buy them all a car.’ Gathered around his desk, they made a remarkable tableau, its randomness capturing the motley spirit of late-night TV. …

“[Leno, in his farewell:] ‘The first year of this show, I lost my mom. Then I lost my dad. Then my brother died, and after that I was pretty much out of family.’ So he made a family out of the people who made his show.” http://goo.gl/uY7l1D

** A message from USA Network’s Characters Unite: Characters Unite, USA Network's award-winning public service program, was created to address the social injustices and cultural divides still prevalent in our society. Inspired by USA Network's iconic "Characters Welcome" brand and with the support of leading national nonprofit organizations, the ongoing campaign is dedicated to supporting activities and messaging that combat hate and discrimination while promoting tolerance and acceptance -- on-air, online, and in communities around the country.

Throughout February, Characters Unite Month, USA is showcasing special programming including the 3rd annual “NFL Characters Unite” documentary, the Oscar-winning Best Picture “In the Heat of the Night” and a new PSA campaign featuring Grammy-winners Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, as well as other notable actors, athletes, musicians and political leaders. In addition, USA is launching a college bus tour across the country and a nationwide search for the 2014 Characters Unite Awards winners.