This means that we contrary-minded folks are sifting through Wall Street's "discarded and ignored" pile searching for real value. We're seeking the type of value you won't find in a "discounted cash flow" spreadsheet anymore.

No, everyone else in the financial world has the same damn spreadsheet. We need to find another edge.

And that edge is investing in the other side of "crowded trades."

But Sometimes, the Crowd is Right

It is neither fair nor accurate to say that the investing herd is always wrong. In fact, the consensus opinion is more often right than wrong.

But when it's wrong, it is always at the most inopportune time.

This means there's a lot of money to be made if we can accurately time the turning points for stocks and sectors that are "out of favor."

To do so, we use "sentiment analysis" – to figure out exactly HOW much something is disliked or ignored.

But we also need to use some degree of "technical analysis" so that we can let the market tell us if we're on the right track.

And the Best Technical Analysis is Simple Technical Analysis

Like many things in life, complexity is the investor's worst enemy when looking at the charts.

And, really, we're only trying to do two things...

Figure out if something is going UP rather than DOWN

Determine if the "big money" is likely to be buying soon

If an "out of favor" stock goes up, when it has all the reasons in the world to be going down, that's a really positive sign.

It's also a positive sign if the "big money" is also aware of our theme.

We want to get in before they do, of course... so that we can buy low and sell high.

But we want to make sure they're coming to the party – so that we have people to sell higher to later on!

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