CATEGORY: Outstanding Limited Series

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

The Alienist

Genius: Picasso

Patrick Melrose

Godless

Ray Mickshaw/FX

Most Likely to Win

Though not as dominant in this field as the first American Crime Story about the O.J. Simpson trial, Ryan Murphy’s stylish The Assassination of Gianni Versace is an innovative character study of mass murderer Andrew Cunanan, told in reverse chronology and juxtaposed with the rise of his eventual obsession/target Versace. It’s also a powerfully tragic history of gay repression and prejudice. I thoroughly enjoyed the feminist Western Godless, but Versace has more buzz.

Should Win

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Aidan Monaghan/AMC

Should Have Been Nominated

AMC’s adventurous horror show of a historical drama The Terror, charting a doomed Arctic expedition besieged by a supernatural monster.

Virginia Sherwood/NBC

CATEGORY: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie

Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso

Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose

Jeff Daniels, The Looming Tower

John Legend, Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert

Jesse Plemons, USS Callister (Black Mirror)

Pari Dukovic/FX

Most Likely to Win

Benedict Cumberbatch’s decadent tour de force was something to behold, and John Legend literally soared as the musical messiah, but Darren Criss exceeded all expectations in his fearless depiction of murderously narcissistic madness as Versace’s Cunanan.

Most Likely to Win

Accessing her repressed memories of childhood sexual abuse, The Tale's Laura Dern gives a raw and wrenching performance of slow-dawning discovery that is classic awards bait.

Brownie Harris/USA Network

Should Win

The Sinner’s Jessica Biel (also an executive producer), for going even deeper into repressed trauma in a Gothic mystery about a woman who can’t quite fathom what triggered her murderous attack on a man in front of her child and husband.

Should Have Been Nominated

Hayley Atwell, projecting intelligence and empathy in the role that won Emma Thompson an Oscar, in the Starz remake of Howard’s End.

Paul Lee/NBC

CATEGORY: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie

Jeff Daniels, Godless

Brandon Victor Dixon, Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert

John Leguizamo, Waco

Ricky Martin, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Edgar Ramírez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Michael Stuhlbarg, The Looming Tower

Finn Wittrock, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Netflix

Most Likely to Win

Nominated twice this year (also as a real-life hero in The Looming Tower), Jeff Daniels’ bravura performance as a classic Western villain on a crusade of revenge in Godless was great, grizzled fun. You couldn’t stop thinking about, and fearing, him even when he was off-screen.

Netflix

Should Win

Daniels (although Dixon’s powerfully sung Judas was Tony-worthy, and Wittrock was heartbreaking as a closeted military man who fell victim to Versace’s killer).

JoJo Whilden/Hulu

Should Have Been Nominated

The Looming Tower’s Peter Sarsgaard, bringing chilling specificity to the composite character of a CIA antagonist, hoarding intel that might have helped prevent the 9/11 attacks.

Netflix

CATEGORY: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

Adina Porter, American Horror Story: Cult

Letitia Wright, Black Museum (Black Mirror)

Merritt Wever, Godless

Sara Bareilles, Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert

Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Judith Light,The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Jeff Daly/FX

Most Likely to Win

Odds favor Versace’s primo diva, Penelope Cruz, as a flamboyantly spot-on Donatella, or Judith Light’s more poignant work as the tightly wound cosmetics-queen wife of one of Cunanan’s closeted victims.

Netflix

Should Win

Nurse Jackie winner Merritt Wever in Godless, funny and fierce as a formidable widow on the front lines of defense in an embattled mining town.

PBS

Should Have Been Nominated

The legendary Angela Lansbury as lovably cranky Aunt March on PBS Masterpiece’s remake of Little Women. A nomination and win could have made up for all the years she was nominated, and never won, for Murder, She Wrote.

The annual awards show, airing September 17 on NBC, has one of the most stacked lists of nominees we've seen in many years. So stacked, in fact, that we're having trouble figuring out who will take home statues on Monday night! Luckily, our own Matt Roush shared his predictions for the winners in all of the major categories. (Plus, those who should actually win and the shows and stars that were snubbed from nomination.)