Mark Dodson in Barron's

"Mark Dodson, director of research at Nashville's Hays Advisory, and Buzz Heidtke, who runs another fund nearby, overlaid the election-cycle data with data popularized by the Stock Trader's Almanac. The data show a positive market bias from November to May and a median return of 16% for those months (34.6% annualized)—and not one negative return for any of those five-month periods beginning in year two of the presidential term since 1950. In addition, Dodson notes his sentiment indicators recently 'hit the kind of level you only see at the bottom of a bear market.'"

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