Australia solar PV market size for residential and commercial sectors is estimated to exceed 5 million units by 2030

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2016

Australia solar PV market size for residential and commercial sectors is estimated to exceed 5 million units by 2030 with over 16 GW additions till 2030. In 2014, the region has over 1.2 million systems with total capacity of 3.1 GW. The industry is likely to witness significant gains in this region owing to the surge in demand from residential and commercial sectors.

In 2015, highest installation of 69 MW solar PV was recorded in a month in this region. The rising trend towards commercial solar PV market size continued with the installation of more than 75 kW systems and accounted for over 30% of the total share in Australia, with expected growth in 10 kW to 30 kW in the major regions such as South Australia and NSW. The slowdown in the residential solar PV market had been compensated by growth in the commercial sector. The renewable energy is estimated to account for over 49% of total capacity by 2030, and about 33%, by generation.

Supportive government policies and initiatives couple with increasing demand for solar systems mainly in residential applications is likely to surge the demand growth over the forecast period. However, high cost of storage, power and installation conversion devices along with inadequate number of certified installers is anticipated to hinder the industry growth over the coming few years. Decreasing costs of solar systems and energy storage devices is forecast to offer huge potential opportunity to the demand growth from 2016 to 2023. In addition, increasing prices of fossil fuels is also anticipated to act as the opportunity to boost the industry growth over the forecast period.

In 2014, Australia solar PV market size continued to make swift progress in the direction of competitiveness in the electricity sector. Declining solar PV cost with the increasing electricity cost has helped drive momentum towards dynamic grid parity. The revenues generated or savings occur in electricity cost by selling PV electricity are almost equal to or higher than the long term cost incurred during financing and installing a PV system. Rooftop solar is the prime factor which is anticipated to augment the regional market over the forecast period.

Demand is primarily driven by countries such New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. The electricity load in anticipated to rise in Queensland region mainly at peaks times owing to the construction of large scale solar PV system over the forecast period. Increasing uptake of air conditioners is also like to surge the demand growth in the region. The cost of large scale certificates for solar plant in the region would require around USD 23 per MWh, whereas wind projects in NSW region would require more than USD 40 per MWh. On the large scale, it is expected that the wind, LRET and solar PV would acquire over 50% of the total capacity. Large scale solar PV technology is likely to grow at significant gains owing to increasing investments from the manufacturers.

The Australia photovoltaic market can be segmented on the basis of type which includes organic and inorganic PV. The industry can be further segmented on the basis of component which includes crystalline silicon PV cells, modules, thin film PV cells, optics and trackers. In addition, by application, the industry can be bifurcated into ground mounted, industrial, commercial and residential. Furthermore, the industry can be segmented as technology which includes thin film, mono-Si, ribbon-Si and multi-Si. In 2014, the Si wafer technology accounted for over 92% of the total fabrications. The industry share of multi-crystalline technology was valued around 56% of total productions. The share of all thin film technologies accounted for more than 9% of the overall production in 2014.

The major competitors for Australia solar PV market share include Jemena, United Energy, CitiPower and Powercor Australia, ActewAGL, AusGrid, The Endeavour Centre, Energex, Horizon Power, SP AusNet, Western Power, Power and Water, Aurora Solar Inc., SA Power Networks, Powercor, Essential Energy and Ergon among others. In 2014, Jemena was the leading manufacture closely followed by United Energy and Citipower.

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