Special Poll - Pre Elections - 30 and 31 December 2004

IN THE POST ARAFAT ERA, PALESTINIANS ARE MORE WILLING TO COMPROMISE: FOR THE FIRST TIME MAJORITY SUPPORT FOR CLINTON’S PERMANENT STATUS SETTLEMENT PACKAGE

30 - 31 December 2004

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip on Thursday and Friday 30 and 31 December 2004. Total size of the sample is 1319 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3% and rejection rate 2%.

The poll aimed at examining possible changes in Palestinian public attitudes in the post Arafat era regarding six basic elements of Israeli-Palestinian permanent status negotiations: (1) Final borders and territorial exchange, (2) Refugees, (3) Jerusalem, (4) A demilitarized Palestinian state, (5) Security arrangements, and (6) End of conflict. Questions regarding similar and identical elements were asked in December 2003. While the 2003 elements were presented as constituting the main components of the Geneva Initiative, this poll made no mention of the Geneva initiative and the elements were presented as constituting a possible permanent status agreement. The poll also sought to revisit a question asked in June 2003 regarding public willingness to accept a settlement that would contain a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. The findings indicate a significant increase toward more dovish views among Palestinians compared to the situation 12 and 18 months ago. It should be emphasized that these figures have been obtained after a prolonged period of reduced violence between the two sides and during the Palestinian election campaign. Here are the main findings:

(1) Final Borders and Territorial Exchange

63% support or strongly support and 35% oppose or strongly oppose an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with the exception of some settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be swapped with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with a map that was presented to respondents. The map was identical to that presented to respondents in December 2003. At that time, support for this compromise, with its map, stood at 57% and opposition at 41%.

(2) Refugees

46% support and 50% oppose a refugee settlement in which both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242. The refugees would be given five choices for permanent residency. These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas. Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of these states. As a base for its decision Israel will consider the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees would be entitled to compensation for their “refugeehood” and loss of property. In December 2003, only 25% agreed with an identical compromise while 72% opposed it.

(3) Jerusalem

44% support and 54% oppose a Jerusalem compromise in which East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israel sovereignty. The Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that would come under Israeli sovereignty. In December 2003, an identical compromise had a similar reception with 46% supporting it and 52% opposing it.

(4) Demilitarized Palestinian state

27% support and 61% oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state that would have no army, but would have a strong security force and would have a multinational force deployed in it to ensure its security and safety.Israel and Palestine would be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other. A similar compromise that contained all these elements with the exception of the part on the deployment of a multinational force received in December 2003 the support of 36% and the opposition of 63%.

(5) Security Arrangements

53% support and 45% oppose a compromise whereby the Palestinian state would have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace, but Israel will have the right to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and would maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. A multinational force would remain in the Palestinian state and in its border crossings for an indefinite period of time. The task of the multinational force would be to monitor the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including the presence at its international crossings. In December 2003, a similar compromise that contained these same elements with the exception of the part on the multinational force received the support of 23% and the opposition of 76%.

(6) End of Conflict

69% support and 29% oppose a compromise on ending the conflict that would state that when the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples. An identical question received in December 2003 the support of 42% and the opposition of 55%.

The Whole Package

54% support and 44% oppose the whole package combining the elements as one permanent status settlement. In December 2003, 39% supported and 58% opposed an identical overall combined package presented in the context of the Geneva Initiative.

The main difference between the December 2003 and the December 2004 versions presented to the respondents is that while the first version stated that the package was that of the Geneva initiative, the second did not. In addition, in presenting the elements of the compromise in December 2004, we merged the parts dealing with the multinational force (presented in 2003 as a separate element) into the two elements of the demilitarized state and the security arrangements.

Mutual Recognition of Identity

63% support and 35% oppose the proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there would be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. In June 2003, only 52% of the Palestinians supported this proposal and 46% opposed it.

SUMMARY TABLE OF THE FINDINGS

Changes in Support for Clinton’s Permanent Settlement Framework among Palestinians in the last year

Palestinians Dec. 2003

Palestinians Dec. 2004

1) Borders and Territorial Exchange

57%

63%

2) Refugees

25%

46%

3) Jerusalem

46%

44%

4) Demilitarized Palestinian State

36%

27%

5) Security Arrangements

23%

53%

6) End of Conflict

42%

69%

Overall Package

39%

54%

Mutual Recognition of Identity

52%

63%

Results in Numbers

Total%

West Bank%

Gaza Strip%

01) There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal.

1) Definitely agree

11.1

10.2

12.5

2) Agree

51.4

56.3

43.4

3) Disagree

27.1

24.2

31.9

4) Definitely disagree

8.3

7.2

10.1

5) DK/NA

2.1

2.2

2.0

02) When Palestinians and Israelis return to final status negotiations the following items might be presented to negotiators as the elements of a permanent compromise settlement. Tell us what you think of each item then tell us what you think of all combined as one permanent status settlement [ read the card and after reading each item ask the respondent about his or her view of that item]

Now that you have been informed of each element of the permanent compromise settlement, tell us what you think of each of its item. Do you agree or disagree with it.

Total%

West Bank%

Gaza Strip%

02-1) Item #1: withdrawal to 1967 borders with territorial swap

1) Strongly agree

12.8

10.8

16.2

2) Agree

50.2

54.0

44.0

3) Disagree

24.9

25.1

24.6

4) Strongly Disagree

9.7

7.7

13.1

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

2.3

2.4

2.0

Total%

West Bank%

Gaza Strip%

02-2) Item #2: a state without an army but with international forces

1) Strongly agree

3.1

2.7

3.8

2) Agree

24.3

24.7

23.6

3) Disagree

52.8

53.3

51.9

4) Strongly Disagree

18.5

17.4

20.2

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

1.3

1.8

0.4

Total%

West Bank%

Gaza Strip%

02-3) Item #3: East Jerusalem as capital of the state of Palestine after it is divided