We have had Live Threads here at Freerepublic for the count for the last three Australian Federal elections - in 2004 which ended in conservative victory, then again in 2007 which ended in defeat for the conservatives and a Labor government, and then again in 2010 which gave us a hung Parliament, where Labor continued governing with the support of the Greens and independents. This is the live thread for 2013 - polls close and the count begins in about 10 minutes.

Polls and exit polls indicate a victory for the conservative coalition under Tony Abbott is highly likely.

A primer for those trying to understand the Australian election.

First of all, the parties. There are two 'sides' that are really important.

We have Labor - the Australian Labor Party. These are the socialists who have held government since 2007 first of all under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, then under Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and now once again under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. These are the people that most Freepers would not want to see re-elected. They will typically be referred to as the ALP or as Labor.

On the other side we have a coalition (commonly referred to as 'The Coalition' as it has existed for a very long time now - since 1922) of conservative parties - primarily the Liberals (Liberal Party of Australia) and the Nationals (National Party of Australia), but also including the Liberal National Party of Queensland (where the two have merged) and the Country Liberal Party of the Northern Territory (result of an earlier merger back when the Nationals were the Country Party). The Liberal Party is the largest and its leader, Tony Abbott is the Leader of the Opposition. He was a Minister in the last coalition government (1996-2007) under Prime Minister John Howard. If the election goes the way we hope, he will become the next Prime Minister of Australia following this election. You may see this group referred to as the Coalition, or by any of the party names or initials - LP, NP, LNP, etc. From the perspective of most conservatives, a vote for the Liberals is as good as a vote for the Nationals and vice versa - they only rarely run against each other.

Australia's political system is largely based on that of the United Kingdom, with some elements adopted from the system of the United States. We have a Parliament with two Houses - a House of Representatives and a Senate - that are roughly similar to the US Congress, with the House of Representatives consisting of Members elected to represent local constituencies roughly based on equal population, while the Senate has an equal number of Senators representing each state (two 'Territories' of Australia also have a smaller number of Senators). What matters today is the election of the House of Representatives - the Senate is important, but it doesn't determine who holds government and the complicated voting system used there means we won't know its make up for some time.

So let's look at the House of Representatives.

There are 150 seats in the House of Representatives. To win government in your own right, a party (or coalition) needs 76 seats. So as the count progresses, that's the number we are looking for - 76 confirmed seats out of 150. Americans may find it helpful to consider this as somewhat equivalent to getting 270 Electoral College votes in your system - the magic number where you have won. Getting more is nice, but that's the bottom line.

So when people post counts, look for a 76 minimum in the Coalition grouping or a combined total of 76 in the Liberal/National/Liberal National/Country Liberal columns (more often you will see the former).

There are a host of minor parties - some of which are potentially relevant. First of all, there are the Greens. The Greens currently have one Member of Parliament, and they could well retain that - they will support Labor if it comes down to it, their support is part of the reason we've had a Labor government for the last three years (nobody got a majority last time, and the Greens helped Labor across the line). There are also a number of minor parties which currently do not have any seats (except on a technicality - I will get to that in a moment) but where it is possible (though not necessarily at all likely) they could win some today and become relevant. These are:

The tecnhicality I just mentioned, Katter's Australian Party - lead by Bob Katter. Katter was elected to Parliament in 1993 as a National, but turned independent in 2001, and has now started his own party. He is quite likely to be returned, and it's not impossible some of his other people might be elected. If necessary, KAP members would almost certainly support the Coalition - so if the election is close (much closer than is expected), KAP can provisionally be counted in our numbers as well - but they would certainly want commitments to some policies.

Palmer United Party - a brand new party, started by Clive Palmer, an extremely wealthy Australian miner who is currently planning on building both a replica of the Titanic and his own version of Jurassic Park (full of animatronic dinosaurs). He used to be a member of the Nationals and then the Liberal Nationals, but had enough disagreements with them to start his own party. Again, it's not impossible (though it is unlikely) they could become relevant today - but again, if it came down to it, the PUP would almost certainly support the coalition.

Family First - a generally conservative party (except on a few welfare and 'humanitarian' issues) with a strong Christian base. They've held representation in our Senate before, but never in the lower house (which is what I've been talking about here). It isn't impossible they could, but again is unlikely - but again, in a close election, they would probably support the coalition.

There are lots of really minor parties, none of which are likely to have any hope of being relevant at all. In the unlikely event they become relevant during the count, I'll explain them then. There could also be some relevant independents.

Short version - we want 76+ votes for the Liberal/National coalition. If we come in just under than number things get a bit more complicated, but may be salvageable.

Interview now with Tanya Plebersek (I need to check that spelling) - senior Labor Minister, and they lose as expected, a possible new Leader of the Party. She’s harping on about Tony Abbott being negative - as they have all through the campaign. She actually is the first Labor person who doesn’t seem to think they are facing a total disaster.

23
posted on 09/07/2013 1:17:40 AM PDT
by naturalman1975
("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)

Excellent summation (and congrats on the apparent landslide), but perhaps you might drop a line or two about the Senate?

That’s what I’m really watching. The preference system has been proposed occasionally in the U.S., and some commentators believe that Tasmania may change the balance of power tonight toward the Coalition. Or not, depending on preferences.

It might be an hour or 2 or even more before anything worth seeing comes out for the Senate. Voting for the senate in each state can range over very differing areas and groups of people and so false indications can be given depending on what areas are counted first!

Interview with Peter Beattie - former Labor Premier of Queensland who was drafted into the election by Labor to try and win the LNP held seat of Forde because of his personal popularity. Says he expects the situation to be very difficult.

37
posted on 09/07/2013 1:50:18 AM PDT
by naturalman1975
("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)

OK - while I have time, I'll try a brief explanation - but the Senate is complicated.

We borrowed the American idea of each state having an equal number of Senators - in our case it's twelve. Normally, half the senators go up for election at a time - so six in each state (there is a rare constitutional circumstance in which the entire Senate is reelected at once).

The Senate tends to have a lot of candidates - we had 97 in my state today, representing, I think 43 different parties, as well as a few independents.

We have preferential voting where you have to number the candidates in order of preference. Obviously with so many candidates this is difficult, so you actually have a choice - each party produces a voting pattern which they give to the Australian Electoral Commission, and if you choose to vote for that party (by simply marking one box 'above the line') on the ballot paper, your votes are allocated according to that pattern. So if you vote Liberal above the line, you accept your vote will be counted the Liberal party wants it to be. You also have the option of voting below the line - in which case you do have to number every box.

Now, six senators are elected at a time - so what they do is they assign a 'quota' of 1/7th of the votes cast to determine who is elected. After the votes are counted, any candidate who gets more than 1/7th of the vote is elected. Once that is done, if all six seats haven't been filled, then remaining seats are given to whoever has the most votes out of anybody who hasn't already been elected.

45
posted on 09/07/2013 2:09:21 AM PDT
by naturalman1975
("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)

That being said, the senatorial method of letting the parties set the preferences still seems odd.

It's a matter of practicality - the number of candidates (my state was 97, and I know NSW was more than that) means requiring people to vote all their preferences means a lot of people would never finish.

46
posted on 09/07/2013 2:10:46 AM PDT
by naturalman1975
("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)

Well they can but a lot of people this year have taken the option of distributing their own preferences by filling out all the boxes below the line in the Senate. I personally gave my preferences to people I think will stand up against the importation of the Islamic culture - it was my first ‘redneck’ vote and I feel damn good about it!

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