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Friday, November 27, 2015

Akagi Chapter 269

A new chapter of Akagi is now up for grabs! In this chapter, how will Washizu and his white suits react to this new tile?! Also, we're nearly at our goal now! We just need about $100 more until we'll be able to keep up with weekly releases until we catch up!

Thanks to Tambur for the typesetting and to Crump for the cleans. There will be a mahjong night tomorrow at 3:00 PM PST, which I probably won't be coming to. If not, please leave all scores on the "Mahjong Night Standings" page.

So no real progress in the game was made in this chapter, nobody even drew any tiles. It's hard to tell if Yoshioka's reaction is genuine or not; as Ohgi says it could be a bluff. I do doubt Washizu is capable of bluffing in his current state, though.

So let's review. Of the 80 tiles left in the draw pile, Washizu drew an opaque tile. There are 3 opaques in Suzuki's hand, 2 in Akagi's, and 2 in Yasuoka's, leaving only 28 left. This means there is a 2/28, or 7.7% chance that Washizu is now in Tenpai. From there, we are left with these 3 scenarios:

Washizu is not in Tenpai (93.3% chance), so Akagi can play his Pei.

Washizu is in Tenpai on the 1-sou (3.6% chance), so Akagi can play his Pei.

Washizu is in Tenpai on the Pei (3.6% chance), so Akagi cannot play his Pei.

This means that there is nearly a 97% chance that Akagi can play his Pei at this point. Of course, Washizu has proven that statistics mean nothing against him. But even if we assume all 3 of the scenarios have an equal chance, that's still a 2-in-3 chance that the Pei will pass. And if we assume that Washizu has to be tenpai, it's 50-50. So thinking with probability, it's more beneficial for Akagi to play the Pei on his first discard than for him not to. But... In the event that Washizu IS waiting on the Pei... Akagi would lose his life then and there. It's really a million-dollar decision, and then some. Let's see what he chooses... probably in at least 2 or 3 more chapters.

If you watch the live action TV series I am pretty sure you at least know what the last tile played is. I'm not going to say what the tile is because it's a spoiler. Also I don't know for 100% certain that that is the final tile. But looking at where it is. . . It seems logical to make that assumption.

Well I assume someone draws a certain non-clear tile. Then someone else draws Washizu's winning tiles which forces him to go for a different hand and ends up dealing in to the single tile wait. But I dont know where the bloody finger print comes from.