Trend of the Week: Penn State vs. Michigan

byJohn Ewing

Context

No. 2 Penn State hosts No. 19 Michigan on Saturday, the game is scheduled to be a “white-out” in Beaver Stadium. On paper, this Big Ten showdown looks to be a defensive battle. The Nittany Lions are allowing an FBS-best 9.0 points per game while the Wolverines are tops in the country in total defense (224 yards per game).

A majority of spread tickets are on the Lions as 9.5-point favorites at home. Should bettors eat the chalk or take the points with the underdog?

In college football, contrarian bettors should target heavily bet games. Using Bet Labs’ “Number of Bets Compared to Daily Avg” filter users can easily find games attracting lots of public action. Its these matchups that offer the most value betting against the public. Penn State-Michigan is the marquee matchup of Week 8 and has garnered the most tickets. Fading the public and betting on road teams in conference games has been a profitable strategy.

Trend

Road Streak, Heavily Bet Game

This Pro System has gone 191-112-2 (63.0%) ATS, +71.17 units since 2005.

Our Pick

After a loss to Michigan State, the Wolverines needed overtime to beat an unranked Indiana in Week 7. Michigan is struggling, its offense ranks near the bottom in the Big Ten in nearly every offensive category. Casual bettors don’t like wagering on teams that can’t score so we know squares will be on the Lions. Be contrarian and take the points with Michigan in a heavily bet conference game.