Tony Blair is coming back. He will be Britain's Prime Minister again soon. Maybe

What follows is a vision of one possible political future for Britain. Dream or nightmare? Decide for yourself.

Step One

David Cameron wins the EU referendum and Britain stays in the UK. But the margin of victory is narrow: 47 per cent vote to Leave, including a clear majority of Conservative members. Many of those Conservatives consider that the PM won dishonourably, insulting their integrity, abusing the power of the Government and skewing the vote against them.

The lingering anger and resentment within the Conservative Party leads eventually to a full-blown rupture in the party. Around 100 Tories split away (though they insist they retain the right to the name “Conservative Party”) and conclude a merger with Ukip. Those MPs include Michael Gove but, after prolonged deliberation, not Boris Johnson. They finally agree on a name: The UK Conservative Party. Its primary policy is another EU referendum where it will campaign for Brexit.

The split costs David Cameron his job at the head of the rump Conservative Party; allies including George Osborne are also driven into early retirement. Despite his hopes, Boris Johnson is also rejected as party leader by Tory remnants who blame him for the split. Theresa May becomes caretaker Prime Minister at the head of a minority government hopelessly short of a Commons majority but which survives because of chronic division among non-government parties and the ad hoc support of some opposition MPs.

Losers

Step Two

The Chilcot Report surprises precisely no-one. Its publication allows everyone who feels strongly about Iraq and Mr Blair to vent their feelings once and for all. It also finally frees the man himself to launch the full-blown defence of his record he’s shied away from while Chilcot deliberated. That defence centres on asking his critics, again and again and with the same hurricane-force charisma that won so many elections, to explain what the world would look like today if Saddam had been allowed to continue killing and arming and fomenting terror and sectarianism. That doesn’t change many minds, but it does remind a lot of people of two facts that have been widely (and deliberately) overlooked in recent years: 1 An awful lot of people other than Mr Blair agreed with invading Iraq, and not all of them because they were lied to and 2 Like him or not, he’s far, far more impressive and convincing a figure than anyone else in today’s Labour Party.

It won't change a thing

Step Three

Chilcot starts a row within Labour about Iraq and Mr Blair that then comes to a head over the issue of Trident. Jeremy Corbyn, having delighted party members by calling for Mr Blair to face war crimes charges, is emboldened into trying to use Labour’s nuclear weapons policy to inflict a final defeat on his internal enemies. He calls a ballot of all party members, bypassing Labour MPs and the usual policy-making process, and asks them to endorse his policy of opposing Trident renewal and unilateral disarmament.

Before the result can be announced, around 40 Labour MPs declare they are leaving the party in protest, and establish their own parliamentary grouping officially known as the Progressive Labour Party but widely known as New Labour. Significantly, Mr Corbyn’s nuclear policy costs him the support of the Unite trade union, which announces that it will no longer affiliate to any party but will back parliamentary candidates who support trident renewal.

Mr Corbyn’s Old Labour, reduced to 190 MPs, makes another major change of policy, moving to oppose EU membership. Many Old Labour MPs call for the party to promise a second referendum and campaign for Brexit after the next election.

Another loser

Step Four

The remnant Conservative administration, freed of the need to placate Right-wing Tory Eurosceptics, finds it surprisingly easy to strike parliamentary deals with New Labour and the few remaining Liberal Democrats. Inevitably, there is talk of merger, though no formal deal is struck in time for the next general election. Instead, the three parties agree an electoral non-aggression pact, refusing to stand candidates against each other’s sitting MPs and running only a single candidate in target seats. While both the BritCons and Old Labour regularly score in the mid-20s in opinion polls, surveys suggest that the new centrist alliance, known as British Future, commands well over 40 per cent of the vote. Some analysts talk of the alliance winning an overall majority at the election.

However, the problem of leadership remains. Who can unite pro-EU Tories, New Labour and Lib Dems? Since no one actively involved in any of the three parties is able to command the complete confidence of the others, it becomes clear that a leader from outside Parliament is needed.

Stuffed with votes for Mr Tony

Step Five

And so it comes to pass that one bright morning in May 2020, Tony Blair stands on the steps of 10 Downing Street once again. It’s the day after his 67th birthday and the hair is now fully grey, but he’s as trim as ever; he regularly plays tennis with his “good friend” Earl Cameron at the earl’s Oxfordshire estate. And the smile is still the same as he looks straight down the barrel of the TV cameras, that same gimlet-sharp twinkle in his glassy eye: “Another dawn has broken, has it not?”