000
FXUS63 KMKX 290735
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
235 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF
MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING. AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER
OMEGA. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE GENERALLY WEAK...SO HOPING WE CAN GET A
QUICK...DECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT
NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID DAY AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INDICATED ON THE HI RES MODELS FOR US TO MIX
OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THAT/S A TOUGH ONE TO ACCEPT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH AG CROPS AT FULL TILT. SO...LOOKING AT
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS GREAT UNLESS YOU/RE A LEAFY PLANT NEEDING WATER.
A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.
.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A
GLANCING SHOT OF DCVA HERE HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS KEEPING
POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT MOS GUIDE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 22-24C RANGE SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH COLUMN AS DRY AS IT IS AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE POTENTIALLY LOWER THAN GUID SO FOR NOW
HAVE STEERED DRIER IN THIS REGARD.
.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PARADE OF VORTS CONTINUING
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A SURFACE/850 FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME CAPE
HOWEVER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS POINT. COLLAB WITH KLOT ON THIS.
.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT 850 TROUGH AXES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH
SOME INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD.
.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF IS QUICKER ON EXITING THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE
GFS LINGERS LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF CURRENT
CONSENSUS/TRENDS HOLD THIS WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A COOLER INFLUX OF 925 TEMPS ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IT SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 09-10Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE FOR
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL GUST TO NEAR 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR