Britain and Europe

Push-pull

Europe still divides all three main parties—against themselves

ALTHOUGH most Britons prefer to ignore it, the European Union (EU) has played a momentous role in their country's recent past. Rows over Europe helped to bring down two Conservative prime ministers: Margaret Thatcher and John Major. Labour was similarly riven until the late 1980s, when pro-Europeans began to dominate. The last economic blow to shape politics (Britain's forced exit from the exchange-rate mechanism in 1992) was of European origin; the debate on joining the single currency hung over Labour's early years in power.

The shadow cast by Brussels is lengthening over Gordon Brown's premiership. On January 21st the House of Commons began what may be 20 days of debate on the EU reform treaty. Signed in Lisbon on December 13th, it succeeds the draft EU constitution thrown out by referendums in France and the Netherlands in 2005. That Parliament is ratifying it rather than voters is itself controversial: the government, led by Tony Blair at the time, promised a referendum on the constitution in 2004.

The Conservatives regard the Lisbon treaty as different only cosmetically from the original constitution, a view shared by the European Scrutiny Committee in the Commons. On January 20th the Foreign Affairs Committee weighed in with the view that its foreign-policy provisions are nearly identical to those in the constitution. Most voters want the promised plebiscite, as do some Labour backbenchers—18 of whom signed an amendment that is expected to be put to a Commons vote.

The government, knowing that the treaty would almost certainly be thrown out were it put to the public, makes much of the fact that it amends rather than replaces previous treaties, and so need not be. Further enlargement of the EU, which the Tories support, requires the institutional reforms contained in the treaty, ministers say. Rejecting a document that other European nations regard as gallingly generous to Britain (Mr Blair negotiated various opt-outs, though their durability is questioned) could even force a showdown over British membership of the EU—an especially unwelcome prospect at a time when Britain is relying on EU support in its fraught relations with Russia (see article).

The treaty is likely to be ratified despite the small backbench rebellion. But even if the immediate difficulty passes, Europe remains a thorny issue for all three main parties. Labour MPs, mostly good Europeans (by British standards, anyway) under Mr Blair, are accused of indecision and ambiguity under Mr Brown, as their pro-European instincts collide with the fear of alienating a largely Eurosceptic electorate. Attempting to square this circle led to the prime minister's clumsy handling of the treaty-signing last year (he turned up, but hours after the official ceremony).

The Tories, for their part, are now an almost exclusively Eurosceptic party; Europhile grandees such as the former cabinet ministers Kenneth Clarke and Michael Heseltine have few heirs. But Labour hopes to drive a wedge between the party's moderate Eurosceptics and radicals who may ultimately favour withdrawing from the EU entirely. Senior Tories are confident that the party will remain united during the Commons debates. But many of the hardliners are young MPs, so the fissures may endure. Eurosceptic policies have already tripped up the Tory leader, David Cameron: his pledge in 2005 to withdraw from the main centre-right group in the European Parliament has not yet been fulfilled, and he is struggling to say exactly what a Tory government would do about the treaty if it had already been ratified.

The Liberal Democrats are the most united on the issue. Few are Eurosceptic, though Vince Cable, their treasury spokesman, is more cautious than most. But trying to reconcile their pro-European instincts with their democratic values forces them into awkward positions: they oppose a referendum on the treaty but propose one on EU membership, something most Britons wish to preserve (see chart). Their challenge is to persuade wary voters that the party's Europhile enthusiasm has limits. Nick Clegg, their leader and a former member of the European Parliament, is expected to talk more about reforming Brussels than his predecessors, and the term “federalist” is being jettisoned.

As Britons of all political stripes argue, duck and dither on Europe, however, the impatience of true EU believers in Brussels is fast increasing (see article). Time and treaties wait for no man.