The road to reelection for Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) was always going to be difficult. But it looks even harder at the end of a troubling week for the Democrat when a federal probe of an anti-violence initiative he started has received widespread attention in the state.

At minimum, the episode is an unwelcome distraction; at most, it could become a big blow to the good-government image Quinn has carefully crafted, close watchers say. […]

A large part of Quinn’s path to victory will depend upon how negative a light Democrats can cast Rauner in during the run-up to November. But the more the focus is on Quinn, the more difficult his path becomes.

Keep in mind that Rod Blagojevich was reelected a few days after his top fundraiser Tony Rezko was indicted and that Quinn was elected in 2010 with an approval rating in the 30s. Also keep in mind that Bruce Rauner has a whole lot more money to spend than any GOP nominee in many a year.

* The Question: On a scale of one to five, with one being the least and five being the most, rate the impact of this anti-violence initiative scandal on Quinn’s reelection chances. Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.

It strikes at the heart of Quinn’s image, these investigations tend to move slowly, and Rauner has the money to sear every revelation into people’s minds. By itself, this would be a “2″, but this also piggybacks off the other signs of “smoke” but no fire (yet) in regards to the Shakman suit and others.

Optics plus Ads, then add in a tarnishing of the Image…the slide is “up” is going to increase. If Rauner’s Crew “slow plays” this, the intensity and scrutiny will rise far better than Dopey “hotline” numbers. Just saying.

2. To his supporters it wont matter they will re elect him no matter what. Even if they have to tell them selves he is just incompetent but honest. To Rauner supporters well they wont vote for him anyway. To the undecideds it is to far away from November to have much impact at all. Many of them will forget. It will make a few stay home and not vote at all and a few to vote against him but not enough to make much impact.

I put it as a 4. It hits as Quinns stregth and the belief that he is fundamently a good guy. Then again he has the luck of the Irish. I just wished this all would have come out November and December of last year. Maybe we’d have a decent candidate on the ticket in his place.

#2 Quinn’s only real problem is with public employees and the Republicans ensured Quinn’s reelection in the primary by choosing Rauner. To put it differently, Quinn has less of an uphill climb and scandals don’t really hurt Democrats because they vote in lock step.

Probably just the very first wave of attempts to dig up slime from the candidate who has unlimited money to spend to do so. Not that I’m a fan of Quinn but I don’t think he has a chance to return the favor of rounding up the posse to defame Rauner. I said 1 just because in any other election year where there were actual votable candidates to get behind, this might be worth something. But in this election? Meh.

Wow… I am a bit surprised and actually perplexed at anything lower than a 3…. That “optimism”brought you Rauner as the primary winner… Then Governor. It’s May, yes, in just two days it went from local to Feds… This lasts more than long enough to be an issue… As it all drips out… When something like this happens, there are no secrets… Someone will talk… They will save themselves… Wether it’s all the way to PQ or not… He’s stuck with this…

4. Not because I think it will turn out to be a huge deal but because Quinn is up against a guy that will spend big $$$ so that people are reminded of it. Constantly. In the race to define your opponent Quinn is losing. It’s still early but not trending Well for Quinn.

Simply too early to know. But, it’s not going to play well in the swing suburbs, that’s for sure. Combined with the fact that the disorganized Quinn campaign and administration cannot effectively push back, spin, attack or communicate a message to save their lives. If he wins, it’s going to be because outside groups intervene and batter Rauner, all the while Quinn is convinced that the people saw that he was “good and true” and that’s the reason for his victory.

It is going to be hugely damaging to Quinn among suburban voters. It is not going to have much of an impact upon him in the inner city beyond the fact that there is going to be less walking around money for the ward heelers when election day approaches.

3, And it could swing as low as a 2 by election day or up to a 5, depending on how closely he is tied personally to the events, and how effective Rauner is with his messaging and money. I just don’t see this going away, only counterbalanced by negatives against the other guy.

I hedged with a 3 because it’s too early to tell–I expect many other issues will come up before fall. It also depends on what has come out by then–with all those projects and contracts, there will undoubtedly be a few bad apples, even if the goal was a good one, attacking the violence in some communities.

Bingo 4…If Quinn’s anti-violence program is anything like Ceasefire, it won’t hold up to a federal investigation. Even if the investigation results aren’t completed, spending 50 million handing out brochures sounds ridiculous to most voters.

== At the meeting, an official from Quinn’s administration assured state officials that the program would have the necessary funds.

“The governor’s office is committed to allocating some of the funds for this initiative immediately and will allocate the rest after the election,” the official said, according to the meeting’s minutes.

Murphy called that statement a “smoking gun.” It shows, according to Murphy, “that motivation for this program was to get money out in politically important neighborhoods for Gov. Quinn before … a tight election.”

“Why on earth would anybody in a government position talk about the timing of an election with the release of public taxpayer dollars if it wasn’t for the political advancement of their boss?” Murphy said, referring to the Quinn staffer’s comments.

“I wouldn’t say it’s buying votes,” said Democratic state Rep. Thaddeus Jones, when asked about the timing of the governor’s announcement of the anti-violence program. “I could see (it as) currying favor.” ==

At least 3, possibly 4. Yes, IL voters have blown off scandals before but given the extreme levels of discontent registered in the recent Gallup polls (”Half of Illinois residents say they want to leave”) I wonder if voters are not reaching a breaking point where their desire for change overcomes their desire to stick with the “devil they know”.

Whoever posted the following under the name “Really??” at 2:13pm on October 29 2010 looks downright prescient:

== The $50 million Governor Quinn is using for the new Neighborhood Recovery Initative (touted as a violence prevention program) is using capital funds? This is a program that is providing funds to local community based organizations to engage youth, offer job training and provide funding for small businesses. I don’t think that’s capital funds. ==

It fits his opponents narrative, comes after two previous governors ended up in prison, Madigan is losing support across the state on two major reform issues, and voters are reminded why they hate Illinois.

A “2″. It’s a hard issue to explain in terms that the average voter would understand or care about. Also, voters are becoming increasingly desensitized to corruption. In the scheme of things, this isn’t that sexy of a scandal, at least so far.

3. Just don’t know yet. But with the most recent two governors ended up in prison, the voting public just seems to be very dubious/cynical - and this issue doesn’t help any. Bruce Rauner just got handed an enormous gift.

Pat Quinn has no more stumbles available to him. And that still may not be enough.

Voted “2.” Note that over 2/3ds of all voting here, at least, put it at 1, 2, or 3. I’d imagine most folks marking 4 or 5 are voting for BR anyway and looking for another reason to try and slam Pat Quinn. The fact is that, on the whole, Pat Quinn IS, and has BEEN, the most Activist “Reform” Governor when it comes to ethical behavior and transparency that our Beloved Home State has ever seen–and in spite of their inquiry, the Feds and Anita Alvarez (a friend of the Governor, and on the very Stage right beHIND PQ cheering him on avidly on Election Night, know this to be true as well.

This development is assuredly an annoyance but FAR from BR’s accusations and suggestions to the contrary, it will NOT shoot him down–not even close.