PORTUGAL HAS A NEW CENTER-RIGHT PRESIDENT: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a former TV pundit, was the runaway winner of Sunday’s presidential election, “setting up a period of potentially prickly cohabitation with the Socialist-led minority government, which took office in November.” Takeaways by Paul Ames for POLITICO | Reuters

TAXING TIMES — COMMISSION PROPOSALS AND GOOGLE DEALS: This week the Commission will submit proposals to update EU law to reflect OECD principles on tax, through the Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive. The European Parliamentary Research Service estimates corporate tax-dodging costs the bloc €50 billion to €70 billion every year. This weekend one of the beneficiaries of current loopholes — Google — offered a sign of the times by closing a deal with U.K. authorities to pay £130 million tax on profits generated in the U.K. France’s economy minister also met with Google in Davos. Zoya Sheftalovich has the details: http://politi.co/1Jv0NTT.

SCHENGEN’S LAST CHANCE: The EU’s interior ministers meet today over lunch in Amsterdam to discuss how long to allow temporary border controls to stay in place.In theory “temporary” means a maximum of six months, though the Commission argued Friday to journalists that it is possible to extend this beyond six months. Few seem interested in the prospect, and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is among those warning the free-movement zone will implode well before May if a new way of securing the external border is not found.

Miro Cerar, Slovenia’s prime minister, has a proposal: Put more effort into securing the border between Greece and Macedonia rather than throwing Greece out of Schengen, as Austrian Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner wants, or keeping up borders everywhere else. Doctors Without Borders says creating “safe point of passage” at the Greek-Turkish border should be the priority. Playbook hears the Commission will be responding with a “yes” to Cerar, who has sent it his idea, as first reported by Silke Mülherr in Welt am Sonntag: http://bit.ly/1JuTLOL.

Meanwhile the Commission is back in Turkey: Commissioners Mogherini, Hahn and Stylianides are on the ground working to secure land and sea borders with Turkey. Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoğlu is playing hard to get: “We are not begging for the money. The €3 billion are only there to show the political will to share the burden,” he told DPA.

Jeremy Corbyn wants Calais camp migrants to have chance to enter Britain: “We’re talking 3,000 people… it’s not very many,” Corbyn said during a trip to Calais on Saturday to see the impact of British aid and the squalid conditions at the Calais camp. Kate McCann: http://bit.ly/1SG0jNi

THE MARCH OF THE POPULISTS — NEW POLLS KEEP POLITICAL MAINSTREAM ON BACK FOOT:

Sweden: The right-wing Swedish Democrats are leading, and this graph shows neatly how they have halved the support of the once-dominant Social Democrats since 1988. GRAPH: http://politi.co/1lHRB2S

Netherlands: Two polls with different numbers show Geert Wilders’ populist PVV (28 percent and 20 percent) in front. Deputy Prime Minister Lodewijk Asscher this weekend warned however that Wilders has ridden high before but lost three times at the ballot box when voters had to mark their papers. http://nyti.ms/1SG3zsb

Greece: A poll by Kapa gives New Democracy a bounce in the first weeks of its new leadership under Kyriakos Mitsotakis — they’re at 31 percent compared to 29 percent for the government Syriza party.

Poland: The new government’s tough EU rhetoric is doing it no harm at home. TNS Polska puts Law and Justice up to 42 percent support, more than double its nearest rival and 26 points clear of Tusk’s Civic Platform. http://bit.ly/1PvSuDm

Germany: While support for the Euroskeptic AfD party is riding as high as 17 percent among men (just 2 percent among women), there is also first poll showing a majority against a Grexit from the eurozone. GRAPH: http://politi.co/1Tj6xSx

A WEEK OF ITALIAN EXCEPTIONALISM …

Renzi bucks the populist trend: His Democratic party is 11 points clear (34 to 23 percent) of the populist Five Star movement, and increasing its lead. http://bit.ly/1WIml12

What Renzi wants: flexibility from the EU towards his national budget so he can keep populists at bay. He’ll meet Angela Merkel this week. His foreign minister will meet EU Commisioner Vestager. Florian Eder in Die Welt: http://bit.ly/1Qms75Z

One million protest Italy’s legal stance towards gay couples: “Italy is the last Western European country without some form of relationship recognition for same-sex couples. The Senate is to begin debate on the civil unions bill Thursday … The opposition has proposed up to 6,000 amendments.” Opponents of new rights will hit the streets this coming Saturday. http://bit.ly/1ZLlYmw

FRANCE — WHY MARINE LE PEN IS GOING OFF-GRID: Bruised after several campaigns, the National Front leader is taking time to regroup. http://politi.co/1OQYYNI

FRANCE — SARKOZY’S MEA CULPA BOOK OUT TODAY: The famously hyperactive and confident ex-president is unusually contrite in his new book. Nicholas Vinocur dives into it: http://politi.co/1TjtDbJ

UK — DEBRETT’S LIST OF 500 MOST INFLUENTIAL BRITONS: The 250-year-old guide to the upper classes is branching out into social mobility with this list. Summary here: http://dailym.ai/1nhLkfp. Full list behind the Times paywall: http://thetim.es/1OQhllP

UK — ‘SO PUTIN KILLED LITVINENKO. CARRY ON:’ Peter Pomerantsev writes that “Britain has been cozying up to Russian money for years and a dead spy isn’t going to change that.” http://atfp.co/1NpEwS8

RUSSIA — ANXIETY SWELLS AS OIL PRICE DROPS: “The last time oil prices dropped so low and stayed there, in the 1980s, the Soviet Union disintegrated … Food prices rose 20 percent last year, according to official statistics.” Many Russians estimate their grocery tab is up a third. Neil MacFarquhar: http://nyti.ms/1S43M8S

MEDIA — THE DUTCH TECH WHIZ WHO COULD SAVE JOURNALISM: Alexander Klöpping is taking his vision for a journalistic iTunes to the US. http://politi.co/1Pf035B

TECH — THE POPE’S DIGITAL GURU: Jacopo Barigazzi on how Antonio Spadaro helped make His Holiness a social media star. http://politi.co/23mUsjM

TRADE — TRUDEAU ON EU CHARM OFFENSIVE: The Canadian prime minister knows where his problem lies, and that’s why he used his trip to meet with Parliament President Martin Schulz rather than other EU figures. Both sides issued positive signals on trade, but nothing concrete was decided. http://bit.ly/1ViEkd6

OPINION — THE EU PLAYS POLITICS OVER LAW IN POLAND: The Commission appears to be making up for inaction in Hungary by picking on Poland, says György Schöpflin. http://politi.co/1nHtpPE

DAVOS IN THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR … WHAT WILL LAST? There’s a lot of talk and ego in Davos, but some of the thinking is more lasting that others. Here’s my selection based on my own conversations last week.

EU Challenges Report 2016-17: The World Economic Forum’s “Global Agenda Council,” led by Sweden’s Carl Bildt, has drawn up a report on Europe’s immediate challenges and “We present the choices that European leaders must make in the years ahead and explain how these could shape the Union’s medium to long-term development. To illustrate how different policy choices interact, we have drawn up two fictitious scenarios of how the EU could evolve in the next 10 years.” Read the report here.

Millennials deserve credit, by David Cruikshank, chairmen of Deloitte: You couldn’t move in the Belvedere Hotel last week without a fact about those born after 1980 arresting your vision, thanks to blanket Deloitte hoarding advertising a new report on the generation. “They know what good looks like. 30 years ago you knew what your own company did, but now you can compare with everyone across the planet.” That makes it harder for companies to keep these workers, but also forces them to lift their transparency, their ethical standards and their inclusiveness in workplaces, says Cruikshank. For those lucky enough to have the choice: “High percentages will only work for the companies they want to be associated with. And unlike those reports on financial markets, last week, all that leaves Cruikshank optimistic about the economy.” Read Deloitte’s Millennial report. John Green, author of the “The Fault in Our Stars,” agrees.

Ending slavery, by Monique Villa, Thomson Reuters Foundation: “The migrants are most vulnerable,” she says. Explaining an emerging effort with Europol, banks and others to use data to track down people traffickers, “A lot of girls under 18 are arriving in Southern Italy are coming from the same suburb outside Lagos, but disappear and have their passports taken once they are registered,” for example. Without fingerprinting it is much easier for sex slaves or other forced labor to disappear without trace. Villa says businesses are essential partners because they can act much quicker than governments when problems in their supply chain are identified.

The missing middle classes, by Philip Jennings, head of the UNI global trade union: Right in line with Joe Biden’s fears for America’s middle class, Jennings told me “There doesn’t seem to be much hope around for the middle classes here. The language is all about cannibalization of job and job content. The ability of these technologies to replace human work is clear. We have to look at the structural side of what that means for us socially.”

WHICH Davos hotel tried to charge €700 to a partygoer for two hours’ use of a hotel room (5 to 7 am) after he locked himself out of his rental apartment during the World Economic Forum? That easily trumps Uber’s €23 minimum fare during the week (which I paid for a 1.4 kilometer journey).

SPOTTED: Uber CEO Travis Kalanick stayed on in Davos to ski over the weekend.

US 2016 ARTICLE OF THE DAY — THE WAY TO ST TRUMP: Ross Douthat writes in New York Times, “go after the things that people like about him. You have to flip his brand. So don’t tell people that he doesn’t know the difference between Kurds and the Quds Force. (They don’t either!) … Tell them about all the money he inherited from his daddy. Tell them about the bailouts that saved him from ruin … Then find people who suffered from those fiascos … Persuade people that he’s a con artist, and they’re his marks.” http://nyti.ms/1Qmkz3c h/t Mike Allen.

US 2016 VIDEO OF THE DAY — A TEENAGE TED CRUZ ON HIS PLAN FOR WORLD DOMINATION: It’s unlikely in Europe that voters would react to a video from a political candidate as a teenager; but in the U.S., anything goes. WATCH: http://bit.ly/1KydM1Z

US 2016 — THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE OF THE DAY: Michael Bloomberg is considering becoming the second New York billionaire, and the third leading New York candidate, to enter the presidential race. http://politi.co/1S4SRvw

US 2016 — DYING CAMPAIGN TOOL OF THE DAY: “Newspaper endorsements are kind of an antiquity,” writes Kyle Cheney. http://politi.co/1PeyxVX

GET IT WHILE IT’S HOT — OBAMA’S NEW POLITICO PODCAST: The U.S. president makes his most expansive comments yet on the 2016 race, to POLITICO’s Glenn Thrush, and you can get it at 12 noon CET by subscribing here: http://apple.co/1K4Rxpi

EU PRESIDENTIAL AGENDAS THIS WEEK:

Martin Schulz, meets the President of the House of Representatives of Cyprus Yiannakis Omirou, Tuesday. Wednesday he meets the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandin, and delivers a speech for International Holocaust Remembrance Day Ceremony, at the Parliament.

Jean-Claude Juncker: Monday he meets with Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, Tuesday with Tony Blair, Wednesday he keeps the Parliament sweet by attending their New Year’s Reception, and Thursday receives Pascal Lamy, formerly head of the WTO and chief of staff to ex-Commissioner President Jacques Delors. Details for other Commissioners here: http://bit.ly/1Sd0BKf

POSSIBLE UN SEC-GEN AGENGAS THIS WEEK: The European Commission’s Kristalina Georgieva continues her global sales pitch in Addis Ababa over the coming weekend at the Summit of the African Union.

PARLIAMENT HIGHLIGHTS TODAY: The ECON committees examines the European Central Bank’s role in the Greek bailout, and the LIBE committee looks at Denmark’s new refugee laws.

PARLIAMENT JOURNALIST ACCREDITATION CLARIFICATION: In noting the Polish government’s wish to get a copy of the details of all journalists accredited to the European Parliament, I failed to note some journalists are accredited to the Parliament alone (not via the Commission-run general accreditation system). This tends to be because they visit the Parliament in Strasbourg only.

WORTH THE READ 1 — BEN JUDAH’S ‘THIS IS LONDON:’ The author of several articles for POLITICO has a new book out. And it’s blowing the critics away. Read the Guardian review here: http://bit.ly/1ZX0icv

WORTH THE READ 2 — MUST AMERICA SAVE EUROPE A SECOND TIME? “Since 1947 the U.S. goal has been a peaceful, undivided and democratic Europe — not for altruistic reasons, but because such a continent serves American interests. Today’s Europeans are faced with so many existential crises that they need the U.S. at their side. If the Obama administration doesn’t do it, the next one will have to….” http://gu.com/p/4g43q/sbl

BRUSSELS EVENTS: It’s a big week for Ireland’s Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA). Today they co-host Catherine Day at the Irish permanent representation to the EU, the first major public appearance by the former European Commission secretary-general since her retirement, on the subject of “More Women in Politics” (registrations are already full). On Wednesday IIEA tackles the Digital Single Market, with Ronan Harris — head of Google’s Operations in Ireland, and Kilian Gross from Commissioner Günther Oettinger’s office. Register via: iieabrusselsbranch@gmail.com

NEW ROLE: Joop Hazenberg will start February 1 as EU communications officer at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature

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