The latest opinion polls

Looking at the latest European election polls, I am urging the Conservative government to change its approach to our exit from the EU.

A large majority of the public do not see the Withdrawal Agreement as a good deal for the UK, or as Brexit. It unites Remain and Leave voters in opposition.

It is urgent not just for the Conservative party but for our country that either Mrs May accepts the Agreement cannot proceed, or a new PM takes over who starts by telling the EU the Agreement is unacceptable. The Conservative-Labour talks as predicted are not helping either party. We need to leave now, responding positively to the EU offer of talks on a free trade agreement. We should not be holding these European elections as we do not want to have another 5 years as members of the EU. The 2017 Conservative Manifesto was right to say No deal is better than a bad deal, and to propose exit on 29 March 2019.

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241 Comments

We have enough evidence of the obstinacy of Mrs May, Conservative MPs need to act now. It will a dangerous thing to allow a national election to take place in which the Conservatives get 11-12% & come 3rd or 4th. Even if Mrs May is subsequently replaced that could be difficult to recover sufficiently from.

Nevertheless the euro election will be an interesting test of public opinion on Brexit. It looks like it’s c 1/3+ for hard brexit, c 1/3 for cancel brexit / ref 2 and 1/3 for the unclear fudge offered by the Conservative and Labour parties.

JR, Traitor May acted behind the back of her ministers and cabinet to draw up an alternative servitude treaty! Who does that! Her own servitude plan goes against what she described as a bad deal and what she described would not be leaving the EU. She is dishonest. No one could repeatedly claim under all sorts of scenarios posed by her own party MPs that the U.K. would leave on 29/03/2019. That was not abstract it was lies. Before the referendum, after before the general election and after it was clearly stated leaving meant leaving the customs union, not changing to name, leaving the single market, not changing its name and leaving the ECJ, not allowing it to be the sole abitor of of any despite in her servitude plan!

The lies and dishonesty by May have been allowed to go on for far too long. The cowardice in your party not to oust her now acts in public opinion not to trust any of you.

Raab, Johnson, McVey. Just be absolutely deluded to think people will vote for them. They resigned because of Traitor May’s servitude plan and voted for it last time because of their ambition! National interest is far more important and people like principled fighters not self serving cowards like these.

hose who claimed to be leavers in cabinet have now destroyed their own reputation. Sir Roger Scruton sacked without any evidence and on a false premise by Brokenshire, Williamson sacked without evidence or any right to a fair hearing by Sedwill and May! Your party has driven people to the Brexit Party. It’s toxic behaviour this week whe Lewis tries to name and shame those Tory MPs who stand up for the 17.4 million people who voted Brexit shows how out of touch your party is.

Traitor Rudd rubbishing your supporters this weekend and makes derogatory remarks about Ann Widdicombe. Widdicombe would floor her for values, strategy, morals and would floor her in any debate! Rudd should not be in cabinet, she is only in office by an extremely small majority. Rudd, May Hammond, Clarke and their ilk ridicule you, JRM, Widdecombe and others who are true Tories.

No doubt it along with the BBC will try to smear Farage and his new party. Blaire is essentially calling for it today. We cannot stomach any more BBC rot, PC Marxist Tory garbage.

I bet he did not change one person’s mind either way. What he does do is focus attention and stand up for an ignored section of society. But he is as capable of converting people as John Macdonell. He shores up his own constituency rather than engaging the other side.

Much like Ms Soubry with whom he wiped the floor on Yhursday night’s Question Time. But again those who disagree with him will say he was a boorish bully.

Just wish I knew what the Brexit party policies were apart from the obvious one. Mind I no longer care what the conservatives say are their policies, as the difference between what they say and what they do are far too wide.

I thought farage came across as belligerent and defensive, admittedly with a hostile bbc interviewer. On question time the other night he couldn’t answer a simple question about trade under wto rules. Odd since he’s done nothing other than advocate Brexit for 25 years. Farage is certainly a good campaigner and his political instincts are probably basically Tory. But he’s unlikely ever to appeal much beyond his base. The referendum was won by Boris and Gove. Left to farage, leave would have lost.

@Peter; Mr Farage and his latest party (never mind his latest retracted resignation from politics…) can win all the UK EP seats going but it will not change anything because neither The Brexit Party nor UKIP have any seats were it matters – the UK Parliament! More hot air anyone?…

Thats true of course. However the last time Farage won the Euros it bought about the referendum. When the Brexit party win this by a landslide the Remain/PeoplesVote/2nd referendum etc etc will be dead in the water. The Tory party has been eviscerated and change will happen

Farage had no way of influencing the UK parliament, at best UKIP had just two MPs, it was people like our host who forced the Govts hand, in the same way some are today suggesting the ERG withdraw their support to get rid of May, if they succeed no doubt some of the Farage supported club is try and claim victory for that too, ‘It was Farage whot got rid of May’….

“When the Brexit party win this by a landslide [other parties] will be dead in the water”

UKIP ‘won’ the UK EP elections once before, look at them now, not one of the other parties (beyond the BNP) are dead in the water.

jerry…..you merely point out the problem with FPTP democracy ( ie IT ISN’T) so UKIP got a big percentage which doesn’t equate to seats…Ask LIBDEMs how they feel. Moving on to Keir Starmer (made Sir to get rid of him) is democracy flooding Labour committees and groups with Momentum workers in order to vote off ordinary moderate Labour candidates indicative of a democracy?

@Fred H; Perhaps, but then the same could be said about the LD, even the Greens… If we had some flavour of PR it is far more likely that UK govt’s would be made up of left-wing coalitions, or at least centre-right, just as they are in countries such as Germany. Remember that the LibDems and the Liberals before have been complaining about the FPTP system since before we even entered the EEC.

What is more, with very real prospects of being ‘peace makers’, UKIP would have been forced to not only have had fully costed policies they would have had far greater critical reviews, and yes that would also apply to other current ‘fringe’ parties too, such as the Greens.

I was and remain a great admirer of Mrs Thatcher, not least because I remember how things were before she sorted out the unions, amongst other things. One of her characteristics was unshakable determination and certainty that she was right. Inevitably she continued to be determined and certain long past the point where everyone around her thought she was wrong and should bend. It was a policy that served her and us superbly well until it didn’t. I fear Mrs May is on a similar path and hope the “men in grey suits” will have their quiet word with her soon and that she will listen.

Except the Wets, Geoffrey Howe, Michael Hestletine etc were pro -EU when she was resisting further EU involvement. So she was correct. If they had listened to her instead of booting her out, we wouldn’t be in the mess we are now in.

She gave way, against better advice and judgement, over the ERM due to pressure from the Wets in her party. The trouble was she began to see the then EEC for what it was and resisted. For that she was ousted.

These latest polls might also suggest Mrs. May should change nothing at all for then there is the prospect of revolutionary and lasting change to the good. I should though be very sorry to see you lose in Wokingham.

“I am sure most of your local party members will be voting for them too.”

No, most of them will vote Labour, cos they think Labour is going to be their lifeboat. What they don’t realise is that we’re going to sink that as well.

It’s more than brexit now, it’s about annihilating the duopoly and replacing it with something which serves US. Their cosy little number and hoodwinking days are coming to an end, people have had enough of them and their crap.

Keep banging that drum JR, but they’re not listening and it’s going to result in the utter destruction of the Conservative and Unionist party. (Who’d have guessed that the eponymous union would turn out to be the European Union, eh?)

I guess confidently that many long-standing Tory voters have lost confidence in the Party but have been dissuaded from deserting for fear of letting in a Corbyn government. With the latest polls showing The Brexit Party having sufficient public support to make a breakthrough under the FPTP system, this seems a reduced danger. A vote for TBP may not split the vote letting in one or other lefty Party, but provide a eurosceptic win.

Another stimulus to the bandwagon effect.

In my dreams we could find TBT even being able to form a coalition government, with the beleagured Tories tagging along as a minority partner.

Yes, Duyfken, I think we have got to that point. I think your last sentence may well be the situation we reach – a necessary staging point before a fully formed new conservative type Party emerges, having ditched the liberal left element of so called “progressive” Conservatives.

Steve, I am saying that a new Party will emerge from all of this, which will have grassroots Conservatives in it as well as others. I see it as the Brexit Party when it develops post European elections. I agree there will be a cross section of people in it but there won’t be ones tainted by association with (or support for) May.

For General Election voting intention, Conservatives and Brexit Party are vying for second place on around 20% of the vote each, with Labour in the lead on 27%.

It is absolutely essential that we leave on WTO terms without delay because it is quite clear that this is otherwise going to remain the only topic on the agenda for many years to come, hampering government and resulting in damaging and ineffective coalitions. The ongoing battle for / against WTO is likely to do far, far more damage to this country than the act itself is ever likely to do.

But there is no majority for a WTO exit in parliament, now there appears to be no majority in the country either even if a How-to referendum was held.

Talk about blasted fundamentalist Brexiteers wining a battle but then going on to loose the war because they go distracted, preferring fight amongst themselves as to who would be the post war leader… Maddening 😡

There is frankly no majority in Parliament for practically anything, with far too many of our elected representatives putting their own personal aims before the clearly expressed wishes of the people that sent them there to represent their constituency — and despite standing on a manifesto pledge to uphold that promise.

Leave voters are now indicating their displeasure — and their intentions if necessary — in an effort to make their MPs finally see the light and do the right thing.

Yes, it may lead to considerable political upheaval, but it has to be better than the French way…

But that isn’t what happened. The problem is a fundementalist remainer [1] lying to everyone repeatedly and trying to impose a non-leave treaty on everyone while the elected house [2] reneged on their promises [3] knowing the unelected house and friends would derail things further.

And then we have the civil service who appear to have been trying to establish escape routes [4].

@David Price; The problem is not someone lying, it is others believing that lie. WMD’s anyone?

“The referendum was not for a “deal”.”

Sorry but that is just as much a lie as the one you claim TM is telling, both Vote Leave and Leave.UK (if not others) talked endlessly about doing a ‘deal’ with the EU giving us a trade deal that was as good as our current treading terms when ever Remain suggested that our economy would be adversely affected by Brexit. Hence Remain’s retort back “the best ‘deal’ is the one we already have”…

The Withdrawal Agreement is not a deal.
As David correctly says it is a treaty.
It is an outline of some rules and arrangements before we start negotiations towards a deal.
You only have to read our host’s letter to the Attorney General showing the restrictions and negativities that are built into the Withdrawal Agreement, to realise it would be better if Parliament decided not to pass it.

You’re wrong I’m afraid. Its not a deal . Its an OFFER , a deal only happens when an agreement entered into by two or more parties for their mutual benefit, especially in a business or political context is agreed

@Edward2; Libby; David; Wow, we do have a lot of nuns dancing on pinheads, look up the (relevant) definition of the word ‘deal’ before you all start having to dance on the wrong end of your pins, painful…

@David Price; Agreeing to use WTO trading terms is a ‘deal’, an agreement, a (international) treaty, otherwise why would it be called the World Trade Organisation with 124 nation states as signatories?!

I doubt that Mrs May will ever admit to error or that many would believe her even if she did. It would be seen as part of an attempt to cling to office. She should never again be allowed anywhere near a position of responsibility.

Even after she has been dragged kicking and screaming from No 10, the Conservative party has the tortuous task of finding a successor. Finding one that is supported by Conservative MPs, party members and the country at large is nigh on impossible. Only one or two likely candidates appear capable of projecting your aims with conviction and confidence. The remainder will merely go through the motions to gain office. The public, advised by Mr Farage, will see straight through them.

It seems more and more apparent that the country is run by civil servants. This would explain why Mrs May appears so oblivious to criticism and opprobrium and even insult – knowing (if it is so) that ”it ain’t me, guv” and that one day she’ll be what she sees as ‘exonerated’ because ”It was them wot did it.”
Proper ”Yes, Prime Minister” stuff.

Richard Littlejohn wrote a good Sir Humphrey article last week based on Sir Mark Sedwill.

Does anyone think that Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement is a good deal for the UK or is Brexit? It is clearly £39 billion handcuffs for the UK, a vassal state agreement, binding future governments totally unacceptably and killing nearly all the benefits of leaving for many years – perhaps for ever. Furthermore leaving future governments in a very weak position from which to negotiate anything sensible.

Yet nearly all May’s Cabinet keep telling us it is ‘a good deal’. Perhaps they are just all very stupid or they have not bothered to read it – these are surely the most generous assumptions one can make.

I tend not to be that generous LL. These people know exactly what they are doing, so we can safely say they are out to sell us down the river yet again, as so many Tories have in the past. But that isn’t to say Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens or that other motley crew are any better.

I don’t think I’ve heard any remainer MP say ”I’ve read this deal in detail and I believe it is the best thing since sliced brot”. Why would they if they’ve got a civil serpent to read it for them and tell them what it says?

The Conservatives are not a Party for a clean Brexit, only a Brino.
I believed you when you when you said only the Conservative Party could deliver BREXIT.
Correction: only a Government, not lying Theresa May and her Cabinet.
Now that the EU elections are upon us My vote will not be going to the Conservatives.
The leaflet that came through my door from Brandon Lewis and CCHQ disgusts me, it is a pack of lies. It sinks to new depths in attempting to blackball yourself and 33 other honest Conservative MP’s who voted like Labour three times against the WA. As you have explained at length many times it could shackle the UK to the EU for ever and a day.
May and Brandon Lewis twist the English language out of all recognition when they call it a deal.

Sadly Sir John, I fear that your fellow MPs have left it too late for the party to form another government in the foreseeable future.

The majority of Conservative MPs only pay lip service to the result of the referendum whilst actively seek to neuter Brexit. The chief reason for the rapid drop in polling to my mind is Mrs May’s insistence that the UK should be subservient to the EU by passing the WA.

Now that trust in the Conservative party to deliver Brexit is in tatters, it is no surprise that the Brexit Party is riding high the opinion polls.

Changing the leader to a brexiteer, with a brexiteer cabinet, would be a step in the right direction, but the party would still be filled with MPs who wish to thwart the result of the referendum. If the WA is passed, then we can say farewell to the Conservative party being a significant force in British politics.

Only by preparing for and embracing a clean Brexit will the party have a chance of reversing its fortunes.

Totally agree, but we’d be taking the word of inveterate liars never to lie again. Would we really trust Theresa May or any other sneaky grubby little pro-EU toady ever again after this mess?

We should not feel any sympathy for May, just as we are right not to feel sympathy for that other ‘super-wet nonentity’ who denied us a vote on the Maastricht Treaty. And one Gordon Brown who could have given is a vote on Lisbon. The political careers of all three look like ending the same way, but failure is no disgrace to them as rubbish politicians always seem to land on their feet after betraying the nation.

There are still good people in the parliamentary Conservative party who have been consistently against the EU all along and thus worthy of support, but they are few in number. If the rest were booted out, I would dance in the street!

As a person who believes honesty is a duty, I hate to see crooks feathering their own nest at our expense, whilst selling this nation into servitude.

It is reported again that Boris will offer Amber Rudd the Chancellorship in his bid to become leader. Pure opportunism. Absolute disaster for the country and Brexit. I sincerely hope that Amber Rudd is shown the door by her constituency very soon. I understand she has only a small majority and would be hugely vulnerable in a GE.

In my view she is not Conservative, she was over promoted, and has spent her time scheming and plotting, possibly aided and abetted by her brother, to overturn the Referendum result. She should be thrown out for betraying us all.

If the WA is passed, my fear is that the EU won’t ALLOW us to install a Eurosceptic party at the next election, if election there be. Why would they if they hold all the power, all the cards, all the influence, all the control?

Perhaps the remainers have factored this in and know that if it IS passed then their jobs are guaranteed safe, courtesy of their EU masters.

I really don’t see a change of course now as helping to save the Conservative party. The irony is that Mrs May’s deceitfulness is a prime factor in exposing the anti – democratic and anti – English mindset of Parliament, and what a right Pandora’s box the revelations have turned out to be !

It is too late, even if Mrs May took us out on ‘no deal’ immediately we cannot allow the presence of the current crowd to continue in Parliament. They’ve shown that this country has been hoodwinked for many decades. They must, and will be, out on their backsides at the next general election. There is no forgiveness for what they have done.

However if some were alarmed by the recent local election results, they’re in for the shock of their lives concerning the European elections – where we will have real choice.

I think the few MP’s who do have their heads screwed on should be questioning Mrs May’s mental ability, quite frankly. Undoubtedly she has followed the path of many a despot in becoming consumed by her own lies. What we see of her now is just despotic madness.

I totally agree with all you say. And I believe the powers that be have been preparing us for decades with all the nanny state interference, political correctness, loss of freedom of speech, common purpose chaos etc. I could go on, but it’s succeeded in some youngsters group thinking, not questioning things or researching for themselves. Look at the behaviour of Cambridge university denying things that they don’t agree with…refusing speakers etc.

But once we finally get rid of all the pro-EU rubbish in the Tory party, we need to get rid of all the pro-EU rubbish in the other parties. Only a true Brexit leave insurgent party can relieve us of their curse.

You miss the point. This isn’t simply about the betrayal of British democracy and Brexit. This is also about the rise of a form of politics that seeks to silence, control and manipulate the silent majority using identity politics propaganda and laws designed to force conformity. Does that not compute with you? You yourself have voted (albeit whipped) for laws that are at complete odds with your conservative values.

Why do I pay tax to a State that then uses those taxes to destroy my freedoms, my liberties and treats me with total contempt.

The atmosphere today is one of self-censor. That’s a deliberate policy of both parties. Your party is culpable.

You have hit the nail on the head, Dominic. There is a much bigger agenda here of a global political elite who are intent on imposing One World Government, using Marxist methods of control. This is why we are facing such ferocious opposition to Brexit because we are challenging a cosy political elite who have held the levers of power for some decades. President Trump cannot be bought so he not under their control, and they are facing an almighty battle with him, determined as they are to oust him. They will not succeed, and P Trump’s victory over the deep state will have enormous (positive) implications for the UK and Brexit, sovereignty and democracy.

Mrs May is not taking any notice of public opinion, the newspapers, the polls. There has always been a very real chance of the WA going through, she never tires of scheming a fresh way to reach her goal. Just like most opinions on here ( and the rest of the electorate) the only way to change is to remove her. There appears no significant numbers of Tory MPs to take action. We predict the break up of the Tory party and its fate to become a minor voice in the wilderness. So be it. It will not be alright on the night, party destiny is to become insignificant for a generation of voters.

Wrong , a Brexit PM will be able to handle the whole thing in a different way. We dont want to renegotiate the WA with the EU. We just leave, we dont even need to talk to the junta until we’ve left, we can then offer an FTA , the crumbling EU can then take it or leave it

Meanwhile in France for the 26th consecutive weekend 100,000’s of people demonstrating against the “Euro Elite” .

@libertarian; So what will this great new PM, presumably you mean a Tory PM, not JC nor some grand coalition), do when the europhile wets walk out of the Tory party, cross the floor, or just sit on their hands.

Sorry but Andy is correct, the Parliamentary maths will not change – it needs to be put back to the people, as a How-to referendum, if it is not now to late for even that (the latest opinion polls suggest it might be), otherwise Brexit will be lost, even May’s damned awful WA version of it.

Carry on daydreaming, I know what I’m voting for on the 23 May, an insurance policy, the best EP candidate who will represent me and my country in the EP/EU assuming Brexit does not happen, if it does the poll is irrelevant. We will need hard working MEPs, not hot air and sound-bites….

Meanwhile in France for the 26th consecutive weekend 100,000’s of people demonstrating against the “Euro Elite” .

Out of a population of 65,000,000 (European France, not over seas territories), so quite meaningless democratically, even after adjusting for those who have no voting rights… You’re on the wrong side of statistics Libby….

What if, maybe when. Your speculation isn’t an argument based on facts . It is a fact that a new PM of any kind can choose to handle things in a different way. How some of the weasels in parliament choose to handle that is entirely speculative. If they cross the floor then a general election will be called and maybe a lot of your floor crossers won’t be reelected

Statistics dont fight with police every weekend. Statistics dont blockade roads and ports . Statistics dont bring things to a halt . If you had been to France recently I think you would have a very different view of things. Even small rural towns far away from Paris have blockades and yellow vests in the streets every weekend

As to being represented in the EU parliament , what on earth for? It is entirely powerless

@libertarian; You accuse me of “speculation” (based on the known facts) whilst you post a “daydream” (based on your wish list), ho-hum…

As for the French Yellow Vest protests, indeed, no statistic fight with the police every weekend, or any weekend for that matter, in the same way as the statistics didn’t do battle with the Police in 1984/5 during the NUM dispute either, are you claiming that the majority of the UK electorate or even just the entire Trade Union movement (at the time) agreed with such behaviour, heck even some within the NUM refused to support such protests.

Also, before you protest to much (pun intended) best you remember that many of the Yellow Vests are are just as much against your favoured Capitalism as they are what you call the “Euro Elite”.

The EP is not totally irrelevant these days, any more than the US Senate or their lower house is. Granted, you might not approve of it, or what they create (such as the EAW), you are entitled to your opinion.

I posted one of a number of scenarios in RESPONSE to your incorrect facts

Are you saying that the Thatcher battle with the unions in general and NUM in particular didn’t change anything? Because I think they did. In the same way that the yellow vests will have an impact on France.

Capitalism is a marxist construct which I dont believe in. I believe in Freedom and free markets. I didn’t say I agreed with the YV’s , you really dont understand very much these days Jerry do you

Whats the official opposition called and who leads it in the Euro Parliament Jerry?

Libertarian, I agree with one exception. The Establishment and the conservative party cabal which controls the UK will NEVER allow a BREXIT PM. If Establishment puppet MAY steps down or is removed beware of Sajiv David, the sleeper cell. We have to change the whole system which starts at the top of the Establishment pyramid.
Oh how we need a Donald Trump, whom I admire He is fighting his own Establishment and he will WIN.

5 million Labour voters wont vote Labour because Labour ( this week want to remain, with a CU and a second referendum )

Brexit has killed the old two party state stone dead

We have suffered what we suffer because of people like you. Too scared to change anything in case it lets the others in. Well so what if Corbyn is PM they are no more socialist than May and the tories.

Remind me how many MPs UKIP have in the current post 2017 parliament, how many did they have in the 2015 parliament… If Brexit has killed the two party system it is not the Brexit obsessed parties who appear to be benefiting!

@libertarian; What will one MP do, assuming TBP win the upcoming UK parliamentary by-election. It is you who have lost the plot, you are also starting to contradicting yourself. Or did someone else, using your screenname, post the following?

As to being represented in the EU parliament , what on earth for? It is entirely powerless

YES i posted that , yes I stand by that and no where have I contradicted that. You really do talk drivel. YOU claim the the EU parliament is worthwhile not me . I just asked you a question you can’t answer

Do you really not understand that its not about elected politicians anymore ? Its the destruction of the party system, the membership, underlying support and funders are all walking away from the two main parties.

Do you not understand that the “party” leading the polls after only 6 weeks of existence has no policies, has no manifesto its anti politics

Besides it isn’t that difficult …..make me PM for a week and we will be out, there will be no more EU fishing vessels in our waters, Tusk will be thoroughly humiliated, and we will be open for business with the rest of the world.

We will recommence shipbuilding, equally between Scotland and the north east yards.

More seriously, it matters not what the any new PM has or not, what matters is if he or she has enough MPs left to get his or her ideas through – democratically.

If the Brexiteers can play hard ball in a minority parliament so can those that support Remain. Even with a good majority, such as the one TM chucked away in 2017 there might still not have been enough non-factional votes to get any option through. Perhaps that is why TM gambled, trying to maximise her majority, thinking that JC & Labour would fail like Foot did in 1993, one can do get a lot of controversial policy through when you have something like a 144 seat majority even with decent on your own side.

I can now understand why so many Brexiteers decided either not to stand or dropped out of the leadership race, what a poisoned chalice is it.

PS, cut the silly insults, @Andy is just as entitled to state his opinion as you or I are.

A new PM with different ”advisors” or at least strong enough to stand up to them.

It’s not surprising that we saved Europe from itself (or the Germans) in two world wars – thank goodness we did – but in those days we didn’t have a fifth column with such power in our own back yard working against us.

ALL mps should be made to sit down and watch the documentary shot behind the scenes. Then and only then might some of them realise why we despise them so much for trying their best to keep us shackled to this debacle.

It is shameful beyond words that the entire current Cabinet voted to shackle the UK to Mrs May’s putrid vassalage treaty, and continue to say that it is a ‘good deal’. How dare they. The sooner they are removed the better and if we have to wait until the next GE for this to happen and the other betrayers to be removed as they assuredly will be, then so be it. The Conservative Party should have been the Brexit Party, regrettably it is not, and they will pay the price starting with short shrift in the European Parliament elections.

. . . I am urging the Conservative government to change its approach to our exit from the EU.

Steady now Sir John, you don’t want to be labeled a Populist 😉

Judging from your previous article I am afraid to say the government do not have a very good track record of listening to your advice. They won’t, as yet, even answer some basic questions from you.

Labour is playing your government along. It is dragging it out in the hope that you will have to contest the Europarl Elections and, after a pretty bad drubbing, probably demand another no confidence vote. And personally, this time I think they might win.

It really doesn’t matter what they do, or what happens – just as long as May’s surrender document isn’t voted through. Once that is rejected the battlefield will be clearer.
(If it isn’t rejected, the odds will be overwhelming and the EU will have its long-awaited upper hand.)

I think it is too late for your party now John but hopefully not too late for the country. May is deluded & thick skinned and very possibly mentally unstable and the only thing she cares about now is her ego which means she won’t budge from trying to get her awful surrender treaty through. She and all those toadie Tory MPs around her couldn’t care less about the humiliation she is heaping on our country or her proposed £39 billion strait jacket. Hopefully the Labour party will keep playing their games of stringing her along but with no intention of giving in, unless of course this awful woman gives into their demands for a customs union and second referendum.

The reason the Conservative party is about to be history is as much down to Tory MPs including I’m sorry to say yourself John who have failed to get rid of her. What we have seen from this shambles is that we are being governed by a bunch of light weight lefty EU loving political pygmies who couldn’t run a whelk stall let alone a country.

I have voted Tory all my life but it is the Brexit party for me from now on and that includes the next General Election.

The question an increasing number are asking is who is pulling her strings? Because one thing is for certain, despite all her lies, she is not working for the best interests of the UK.

Also, why has one civil servant by the name of Sedwill been given so much power, when he is totally unaccountable to the electorate? This needs to be changed and promptly. It should never have been allowed in the first place.

I have spent much time pondering why so many politicians become Europhiles once they are in power. Cameron and Hague both kowtowed to the EU in government having been staunchly (and believably) sceptic in opposition. Corbyn mellowed his views as leader of the opposition.

What is in the envelope that is opened when given the keys to power? Or does a civil servant have a word.

It’ll be the Civil Service. The FCO, for one, can’t get its head around a foreign policy in which we’re not in the EU … for geopolitical reasons. The Treasury can’t see beyond Bretton Woods and more latterly the ECB. The world changes but the Civil Service doesn’t. Time for major reform.

Read Richard Littlejohn’s article on Sir Mark Sedwill.
I believe the people pulling May’s strings are the ones who are supposed to be on our side. Their EU overlords can just sit back and watch, or occasionally toy with our representatives for their own amusement.

Warnings have been made here by many people over many months that your party is facing electoral meltdown. Nothing has been done to even try and resolve the problem which is ensconsed in 10 Downing Street. She won’t voluntarily leave there until she has accomplished her mission which is to keep the UK under EU control in one way or another. Destruction of your party and the loss of local councillors is just seen as collateral damage to be accepted as part of her objective.
There must be a death wish amongst Conservative MPs as they fail to tackle the problem or perhaps most of them, unlike the majority of their members and supporters, also see the EU as more important than their party, democracy and the UK.

“either Mrs May accepts the Agreement cannot proceed, or a new PM takes over who starts by telling the EU the Agreement is unacceptable.”

Sorry Sir John but I truly believe parliament and your party have reached stalemate on this.

As I said a couple of days ago to someone, just suppose the ERG and other Brexiteers manage to oust TM and install a pro-WTO exit PM [1] would the europhiles in your party then not simply withdraw their support, either by sitting on their hands or even worse crossing the floor, allowing Labour to legitimately claim to be the largest single party now and thus the legitimate govt – heck they might not even need a S&D or coalition partner to do so!

[1] which is what you are asking for above, the EC have stated that the WA will not be reopened

Well it depends there is 5 months from now until then with a six week summer recess in between. May has to be booted out, and new PM sworn in, business tabled , then the actions you predict have to happen, then the PM calls a GE and tables the date

@L Jones; Their is nothing in the WA that would allow the EU to scrap GE’s in the UK, what is more even if the EC tried to pull such a stunt it is almost certain the EP (never mind the UN) would stop such nonsense, otherwise it would set a precedent across the EU27. You are letting your paranoia towards the EU get the better of you…

@libertarian; We are in early May, plenty of time before the summer recess. In any case recesses are simply by convention [1], not set in stone, and even if they were there is still enough time to hold an autumn GE after their return, yes I know the party conferences normally take place in the autumn but that is again convention not stone.

This is why I favour a (How-to) referendum to break the stalemate, a far more controllable situation, risking a GE is playing Russian roulette.

[1] in 1939 MPs were called back from their summer recess. Not sure that Brexit can be compared to war, although some people’s rants sound like a declaration of war, but it is still becoming a full-on national emergency -and fast.

We are speculating on a scenario where a NEW BREXIT supporting PM is installed and being undermined by rebels in their party. Why would the new PM do the things you say? Why wouldn’t a new Brexit PM try to hang it out as long as possible ?

As has been patiently explained to you, Your so called How to Referendum would be totally undoable. You would need more than 20 options for a start . You just aren’t thinking this through in your desire to have what you want rather than what the majority want .

Indeed, a WA was not required for leaving the EU. Nor the “permission” of Parliament to do so. David Cameron made it clear before the referendum by stating, “We will implement what you decide”. A new PM would simply have to keep that promise.

Wasn’t that idea tested in the High Court and found to be untrue, hence why Parliament did have to vote to approve the sending of our A50 letter. It is true that once our A50 letter was approved and sent there does not need to be any further “permission” from Parliament – hence why Remainers scrambled to pass the Letwin/Cooper Bill to ‘outlaw’ a WTO exit, but quite how they that law can be uphelded again the default as set by international treaty…

““We will implement what you decide”. A new PM would simply have to keep that promise.”

Except Norway is not a member of the “European Union”, nor is Switzerland, Monaco Iceland and Andorra… We voted to Leave, that is all, and the problem.

When an institution (in this case, a political party) has become so irretrievably corrupt and morally vacuous that it consistently lies to the public and even to the very grassroots members who have worked tirelessly to keep it afloat, then its demise is no bad thing. But the Tory party isn’t the only one. Labour, the Greens, the Lib Dems, the CUK party aren’t worth a candle. The Brexit party is the only one I could now vote for with a clear conscience and without reservations.

After nearly 3 years it’s too late to change my mind now. My postal vote has arrived, the Brexit Party box has my X in it, and it’ll be in the postbox this evening.

If the Conservative Party can rid the country of May by next weekend, install a brexiteer like Raab in the next 6-8 weeks, then go WTO in October then your party may have a chance of recovering not only my vote but millions like me.

If not, no worries…hopefully Nigel will have enough commons seats to be pulling the strings after the next general election

The duplicitous May has done so much damage to the nation and to the Tory party, the feedback I’m getting suggests a reluctance to take on the role of party leader, and thus, Prime Minister. And why wouldn’t otherwise serious contenders shy away?

Who the hell wants to been seen as the PM who took the party to possibly it’s biggest ever defeat when it was in truth, all the fault of their predesessor?

And how would a Brexiteer lead a Tory party that has allowed itself to be taken over by treacherous remainers?

It isn’t just May the Tories need to get rid of, it’s the Rory Stewarts, the Dominic Grieves, the Kenneth Clarkes, the Nicholas Soames and all the other toxic types who would see this nation laid low and in perpetual servitude.

TAD and piglet….yes they are the first batch of an alarming number that need to be culled. No way back for the Tories with that lot and many more. Wait until CHUK, the Greens and Libdems call the shots on which possible coalition to join. Tories won’t be needed when Brexit or Corbyn have most of the seats.

“If not, no worries…hopefully Nigel will have enough commons seats to be pulling the strings after the next general election”

I do hope not James. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage serve a single purpose and being the party of government is not it. Do you want policy to be set by Clare Fox and her ilk or do you just want to get out of the EU quickly and efficiently?

Brady seems always to be beaming after he’s met Theresa May. Could it be that he’s told her, ‘Dont worry Prime Minister, we all want the UK to stay in the EU really. Privately, we support you, this is just going through the motions to look as though we are taking everyone’s concerns seriously’.

When it comes to Tory duplicity, NOTHING would surprise me these days!

Not just saying this… but I really,really can not work out what the govt is thinking.
The only conclusion I keep coming back to is that it has a truly totalitarian future in mind for us.
Tie us into the “Deal” and then abolish parliament?
Otherwise why on earth would any politician see their party laid waste like this?
Why, unless it thought freedom was about to be abolished would a govt inflict not just a law but an immutable way of life on a population that had clearly said.
“NO we do not want that.”

Perhaps a totalitarian future which means that their jobs are all secure, so long as they have supported the surrender document?
People keep speaking of ”the next GE” but that seems overly optimistic if May’s WA should be voted in. In such a case, there wouldn’t be a ”next GE”, except a pretend one on the EU’s terms.
Or am I still being a conspiracy theorist?

Dear Sir John–Little that is said perplexes me more than “now is not the time to change the leader”–To me it is blindingly obvious that the present apology for a leader is naff in the extreme and it is high time we had a new one. To hell with her being asked to “clarify” (joke) when she will exit–I don’t want a plan, clarified or otherwise, for her departure, I just want her departure. Imagine the joy of a new inspiring leader, optimistic about Brexit of course. It is so obvious that if we left on WTO it would only be a matter of weeks before negotiations started on an FTA. How could they not? Nobody is saying that we are not physically close to the Continent and we are their biggest customer.

AND a leader who has not voted for the surrender treaty EVEN ONCE. Otherwise, how can we be sure that they (whoever they are) will not resurrect it? If they voted for it EVEN ONCE, they are suspect.
Unfortunately and sadly, there aren’t many as honourable as our host who actually WANT the job. Priti Patel springs to mind, or that nice Mr Baker (it seems).

I have said similar things in emails to my Conservative MP.
Back room deals with a bunch of Marxists and London millionaire champagne socialists is electoral suicide as the Tory Party will soon find out.
My MP hasn’t had the time to honour me with a response.

Sir John, although I value your opinions and the time you take to maintain this site, it would appear that all your entreaties to party officials are falling on deaf ears. The Conservative party want our votes but then row back on manifesto commitments and continue to deceive. It would seem now that the cat is out of the bag, the British public are aware of this deception and are turning their back on the Conservatives because of it. If the party do not listen to you, or even bother to reply to correspondence from you, what chance do the rest of us have? Where is the respect?

There is no EU offer of talks on free trade UNLESS the UK commits to the Irish backstop, paying its bills, and guarantee of citizens’ rights. Please stop misleading your readers sir, and please begin to behave like a serious and responsible politician.

The Abyss, the unknown, the leap in the dark – the outcome of the Transition Period negotiations and the Political Declaration. Will we get our fishing rights back or end up back in the CFP. What form of Customs Union? Will the EUCJ still be in control?

Things are going to get a lot worse. There is a black swan flying over the pond.

I had a look at the 2015 Investigatory Powers Bill – introduced by Theresa May as Home Secretary.

It appears that Cameron MUST have known (para 24/2).

“24/2 Before deciding whether to issue the warrant, the Secretary of State must consult the Prime Minister.”

If Cameron knew then Obama knew. I think this is clear evidence that even if somebody below Obama set this whole thing up then Cameron would have asked Obama if it was OK. If Cameron knew then May would have gone to court to get the warrant.

nhsgp…Yep. We simply say ‘that so-called deal was a stitch-up by you lot, to entrap a weak, feeble-minded lady into signing things she had no grasp of. We hereby tear up the supposed agreement with the UK, it was in fact between the EU and a lady called Mrs May. We will not pay the exorbitant severance sums, you can whistle for it’.

Quite a lot of Conservative party MP’s encouraging the voters to vote for the Brexit party openly on twitter. says it all about how dead in the water the Conservative party is.

I take it that since I have only had a leaflet from one party, the Brexit party, that it is the only party that actively is seeking my vote. My guess is that the local Conservatives are refusing to deliver leaflets, especially one cooked up by May the liar.

well over two thirds of Conservative councilors are planning to vote for the Brexit party, probably higher in the membership, so hardly surprising there is nobody prepared to deliver Conservative leaflets, especially a leaflet which presumably supports May’s position.

The problem is Mrs May and her supporters have now made the Conservative Party not the Nasty Party, but the Toxic Party.

It would seem that your thoughts are now, and have been, the minority view within the Party.

I sent a letter to the Party Chairman and Chief Whip some 9 months ago (copy to yourself) outlining exactly what had gone wrong, how it was going to get worse, and what was needed to correct matters.

You responded rapidly with a response, but afraid neither of the other two bothered for months, until you chased them up for which I thank you, and then all I got was the usual standard spin and lies from an office worker, who refused to put their name on the reply.

Face facts, your Party is at the moment completely an utterly out of control, is holed below the waterline, and drifting in dangerous waters towards the rocks.
The Captain and Crew are meanwhile in a trance like state thinking all is well and not seeing or believing what is going on all around them.

The reason for the conservative drop is obvious, they have not delivered brexit and to borrow a phrase from your excellent book (half way through), the electorate does not believe Theresa May’s excuses.

Interestingly the Labour vote has dropped as they edge towards remain and Farage is targeting their vote base. The libdems do relatively well too collecting the remain vote that does not respect democracy, a bit like UKIP swerving into BNP/NF territory I believe this won’t help them in the long run.

The huge result from those paragons of democracy who seek to fundamentally change British politics by changing nothing at all is great, a “Jeb!” sized 3%. If further remainers threaten to walk out when we get a pro-brexit PM they will have no hope of reelection.
The fate of ChangeUK – the independent group was due to their untrustworthy nature, but I believe it also shows the failure of NewLabour style spin – no one believes it.

The best course for conservatives is clearly cancelling EU elections and delivering WTO brexit, after these elections survival is possible yet requires the same action, but will require real leadership – not a technocrat that can give good speeches such as May. I’m not hopeful your good advice will be taken, but it will sink in afterwards.

I want to go back to Sunday mornings of buttered toast and tea.
Unthreatening newspapers, benign tv programmes and Church bells.
I thought I was paying MPs to protect me and my way of life.
But they weren’t…they were plotting against all that I held dear.
And now I must be constantly afraid, wary and alert to all threats ( and there are many).

Dear Sir John,
I have always respected you as a politician – with integrity; something which unfortunately is lacking in many others.
You have admirably expressed the failings of the WA Surrender Document. But it’s only now that all this has sunk in that I realise what a complete mess this Tory government & its predecessor have made of all they’ve done.
Look at decisions: 5G – Chinese against considered opinion, next nuclear power – Chinese with contracted unit cost astronomic; RFA ships – not in British yards; HS2 of marginal benefit & vast cost.
Health: Insufficient medics being trained, insufficient H.E places hence need to import from abroad, often impacting the host countries
Police/Justice: Reduced policing on streets but vast increased knifings, acid-throwing, shootings; dubious sentencing for major crime but out-of-proportion for others.
Education: Far too many unsuitable university students, taking useless courses with no career prospects , being landed with vast debts which they’ll never be able to pay & the country fits the bill. Schools teaching sex & strange deviations to toddlers.
I could go on – but this lot doesn’t represent any achievement as “May’s Legacy”. This government deserves to fall & to be replaced by the real conservatives – the BREXIT party.

The government’s refusal to further the offered free trade agreement only confirms, in the voters minds, that their overall objective is to ‘stay’ in the EU. This is driving (my) support for Farage. When will someone listen?

Agreed Ginty. Why do MPs and interviewers not ask the Prime Minister what a bad deal would have looked like?
Would love to have heard Brian Walden courteously but relentlessly dissecting the WA with her in one of his hour-long interviews. His death, announced today, reminds me why I never bother with any of today’s political interview shows.

I think the Conservative Party has left it too late. The damage has been done. The British people are sick of the lies and deceit. The PM should have been removed after her last disastrous GE campaign. It was clear then that she had lost the plot. She is like a despot dictator who only believes in her way and doesn’t listen to the advice of others. She and her Remainer cronies have opened the door to the prospect of a disastrous Corbyn led Government. If only she had left with No Deal in March. Our only hope now is if The Brexit party can make inroads into the northern Labour vote.

The majority of the electorate, with the exception of your diary followers, do not know just how toxic the WA is. They have only been allowd to see it in terms of the Irish border. A red herring if ever there was one. The establishment have seen to it that all other unacceptable aspects of the WA remain hidden.

Both major parties and the torys in particular only have themselves to blame for the electorate’s response to their duplicitous reaction to the referendum result. I would predict that the response is only going to gather momentum, not the Marxist one I hasten to add.

If you fail to act in the way you espouse you will lose the support of the DUP and then quickly move to a general election. If the Brexit Party can be as well organised in the run up to a GE as they have been approaching the EU elections you are in for thin pickings and a minor party status. Do not be deluded into thinking the BP will be a one item party. Practically every contributor to the diary, yourself included, could furnish a list failures in the current political agenda that need highlighting and correcting.
If you cannot sort it in the next two weeks, the unstopable luge commences it’s trip to the bottom of the hill after the EU election.

Agricola – you mention the good organisation of The Brexit Party. I would put this down to Farage having the nous to appoint an exceptional right-hand man, a former Tory Party senior officer, to run his campaign.

This pro-EU disease started over 50 years ago and slowly spread throughout the parliamentary party like a black fungus. Major nearly killed the Tory party in 1997, but rather than quarantine this sickness and surgically remove it, the Tories let it come back again.

They tried a different strategy this time. Rather than simply deny the people a vote on the Maastricht Treaty, they put up a puppet who just kept lying. One that promised to take us out on March 29th over 108 times, then crept off to her masters in Brussels and Berlin to plead for an extension.

The problem has always been a gullible public who believed what the Tories said, and to my shame, I am one of them, but never again!

It is amusing to see John Major posturing on Brexit as if he were a respected elder statesman rather than a discredited failed PM who was only a bit better than May. Around 1995 he managed to out-do her and lose 2000 council seats and in the same year the Conservatives polled 18.5%, even lower than their current 19%. I remember it well.

The EU election opinion polls certainly look bad for the traditional main parties and dire for the Conservatives; General Election oriented views are no better if ComRes is to be believed.
Your comment as usual is totally logical, but we are not dealing with a logical person in Mrs May I am afraid. Or if we are, she is coming from a totally different starting point: that in the WA, she has the only answer to Brexit and it is the rest who are standing in its way, therefore she is doing us all a favour by staying in office. I think very little is likely to shift her until December, short of a vote of no confidence being passed in the House of Commons.

Unfortunately, there are too few in your party who are able to recognising the obvious! They are prepared to stand idly by, oblivious as the Conservative Party and our Country sink inexorably into May’s Mire!

1) There is no majority for WTO Brexit. Farage explicitly wants one. The vast majority of the electorate will reject him.

2) The Brexit mandate itself is in question. Remain / soft Brexit parties will win the vast majority of votes.

3) As I have long predicted Brexit will ultimately kill off the Tories. It will be a slow painful death but these elections will prove it is coming.

4) Should the policy-less Brexit Party stand in the general election it will win some seats but its main impact will be to guarantee the Tories will lose. Corbyn will lead the next government, probably in a left of centre coalition with the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid and Greens. The price for this will probably be the cancellation of Brexit and a change to the electoral system.

I’m not sure. It seems at least 1/3 are now clearly for wto Brexit. Some people will vote Conservative anyway, but would prefer wto Brexit (or indeed Remain) to may’s Deal. Ditto some loyal labour voters who probably won’t vote for farage as he’s basically a Tory. The mood music could change very quickly with a new Tory leader and pm. I agree the Brexit party will get v few seats in a GE. What surprises me though, in view of the appalling mess the govt have made of negotiations, is how weak the support for reversing Brexit is. Change UK is on <10%! It’s a complete damp squib.

What I think might happen is Mays deal will scrape through perhaps with the CU. Then leavers will want a new referendum. Which might lead to a bigger majority for leave.

Uh ? What are you on about ? Remain is nowhere in the current polling, a “vast majority” reject it – I don’t know why you’re even suggesting it as an option. Remain is not an option – suck it up and move on.

I have read a report that says May and Corbyn have got a deal ready but will not announce it until after the EU election . Have a dig around John . It obviously could well be true .
Nothing divides these two untrustworthy characters . Power retaining is all for them both . The UK is of very little importance compared to their preferment .

The Brexit Party with no candidates in the national elections tops the polls. What does that tell you about the other parties? None of the above.
We cannot wait until Mrs May’s betrayal is embedded in an international treaty. She must be replaced immediately so she never gets the chance.

Thank you. Completely agree.
I’m worried to read that Sir Graham Brady is considering another amendment, to the WA bill, to make it law that the ‘alternative arrangements’ to the backstop must be in place by the end of the transition period. Aside from the risk that for some reason that by then the alternative arrangements aren’t in place, in part or whole, being ‘in place’ isn’t tight enough wording.
If he does and the amendment is passed, I suppose we have to pray the EU don’t agree.
Sounds like Sir Graham needs to re-read your letter to the Attorney General about the WA.

Have people like Andy ever taken a good hard look at the EU’s supposed democratic setup?
The European Parliamentary elections are pretty meaningless. The MEPs have no power – It is just a talk shop. A front, for the commission who alone raise legislation. What can any MEP say they have achieved in Europe other than expressing views? They can’t block legislation or introduce it. The fact that they have no power demonstrates the democratic deficit that exists.
No one voted to be poorer, you lack faith and believe in the economic doomsters who have been proven wrong.

Yes – I have looked at the EU’s setup. It is at least as democratic as Westminster – though I accept many of you are confused by the fact that the system is different. I know many Brexiteers work on the theory that different is bad.

And the economic case is now clear. You are already poorer than you would have been without the Brexit vote. You will get comparatively poorer for pretty much the rest of your life.

If you look at recent German growth rates and compare it to the UK’s recent growth rates how can your claim we are poorer be true?
You fall for remainer economists claiming we might have been a bit better off which is academically nonsense guesswork.

never mind Andy I have every faith in Merkel’s protege in the future stepping in and inviting another 2 million refugees from the UK to come to Germany, where food parcels and soup kitchens will be setup across the channel.

You are right in everything you say here, John, but May isn’t listening: she thinks the MEP elections don’t matter, as she is planning to cancel the results before the elected MEPs can take their place in the new Brussels parliamentary session. She assumes that if she can do that, everyone will forget the Tory wipe-out on 23rd May, and thinks that if just clings on to power until 2022, the Brexit Party will be dead by then.

The only vote that is a vote for democracy at the forthcoming elections is a vote for the Brexit Party; there is no other choice. The parties in the HoC have shown their contempt for democracy in not ensuring the implementation of a democratic referendum, and just pretending that the WA fulfils the result. Even more shockingly there are parties that ignore the result completely and still campaign for remain. To that end, whatever one voted in the referendum if one believes in democracy there is only one choice. Anyone doing anything else is prepared to throw away democracy.

It is beyond worrying that other parties and the media are now avoiding this basic truth, attacking the Brexit Party leader rather than admitting the truth and explaining why they are standing against democracy.

After watching Farage on the Marr show I’m surprised why anybody other than directors of companies that rely on cheap labour vote Conservative or immigrants coming for free stuff vote for Labour. It really does look like the Conservative Party is going rapidly down the plug hole and Labour has turned into a support group for immigrants.

Unbelievable. I would never of guessed political bankruptcy happens so quickly.

The Tories are toast. May tried to position them slightly right of the Labour Party and it hasn’t worked and traditional Tory voters hate her. Now the Brexit party are offering the opportunity to give her the message loud and clear.

Remainer May has colluded with the EU to produce a totally unacceptable treaty where we accept EU laws, taxes, financial and military commitments and policies such as trade and foreign but with no representation or veto and with no lawful means of exit.

Having agreed and signed this treaty with Remainer May it is now impossible for the EU to climb down and renegotiate with her a revised agreement, even if she wanted to ask to do so.

This is why the only way forward is for a new leader to take over and, because of the negotiating black hole Remainer May has left us in, the only way we now can make the EU renegotiate is to say we are prepared to leave on WTO terms and to start preparing fully for this scenario.

I’m afraid she isn’t listening. She’d rather destroy the Conservative Party than talk to the EU about a free trade agreement. And she will never leave office, whatever the consequences for her party and the country.

‘It unites leave and remain voters in opposition’, you say. But they’re opposed to it for different reasons. If you believe most remain voters will come round to supporting no deal, then you’ve reached a new level of delusion. We don’t want it – have you got that?!!

It’s all very well saying it, but even with a leader who wanted to leave without a deal, how would it be achieved when the House of Commons is against and can take control of the order paper? There has never been a satisfactory answer from those pushing this approach.

The problem with Britain’s Electoral System is that- if the Right Wing Vote is split it is Labour who benefits: They could win a Majority on 35% of the vote and get enough votes to kick the Conservatives from power on just 30% (if the SNP/ Lib. Dems do well).

For this to happen the Brexit Party needs take just 15 to 20% of the Vote in a General Election (the Brexit Party will win just a few Seats) whilst the Conservatives get around 25% (and lose over 100 Seats). The Poll in the Sunday Telegraph surely shows that this could happen. And if Jeremy Corbyn is astute and tables another Vote of No Confidence- and the DUP vote against the Government-there could be another General Election this Summer- and before the Conservative Party is rid of Theresa May as Prime Minister.

Sadly the Brexit Party is unlikely to capitalise fully on Brexiteer rage and get most Conservative and Labour Brexit supporters. Nigel Farage has not had a good week: He had a disastrous interview with Andrew Marr today, a contentious showing on Question Time (on Thursday). Also on Thursday he generated very bad publicity for himself by leaving the scene of a crash involving the Landlord of his local Pub: Even though Nigel Farage was not driving the Publican was furious, barred Nigel Farage from his Pub and then ran to the Press saying “He’s a terrible man..He should not get anywhere near Power!”.

Thus we may find that 20% is the limit of what Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party will get in a General Election: His Party does not- as yet- have a comprehensive policy platform beyond a WTO “No Deal” Brexit. Thus the Brexit Party will (likely) let Labour in by splitting the Right Wing Vote- rather than becoming a major force able to defeat the Left outright.

So any means that you – and ERG colleagues have- to bring about a True Brexit has been holed below the waterline. If Nigel Farage does not get his act together you can’t defect to his Party; if you cant get rid of Theresa May and have her replaced with a Brexiteer- you should all resign the Conservative Whip and set up a new proper Conservative Party with real conservative policies. Call it the Freedom Party; perhaps you, Sir could lead it!

Looking at the recent history of the polling Conservative support fell off a cliff edge at the end of March. Now I wonder why that was, but I am sure the Remainers in the Cabinet will be saying it was because the Tory party are too hard line Brexit, and failing to offer a closer relationship with the EU.

The media uncharacteristically is promoting anti- EU sentiment and declaring “they are in a massive lead.”
Obviously this will encourage Remain voters to get to the polls to avert their doom, and, lessen the resolve of Brexiteer voters to vote as “we will win anyway” coupled with their underlying feeling that “it doesn’t matter what we vote as the outcome will be ignored.”
Our media are as crafty as vixen well pupped.

We just finished analysing the YouGov poll (trying to derive the suumptions about turnout that are not published but can be derived with some accuracy from the simultaneousl questions about a Westminster election, especially looking at the figures for parties that tend to turn out no matter what).

The inpression is that turnout will be at least as high (or low) as for the previous EU elections and that the poor results of Conservative (als a bit less so for Labour are driven not only by voters switching to Farage’s party (although he gets only just below 70 % of those who voted leave in 2016) but also by voters who would normally not have voted but in this case intend to make the effort. That group seems to be highly concentrated in the over 55 yo (around half of probable voters will vote to send Farage to Brussels), exacly where Tory membership (and less so normal constituency) are concentrated.

So the good news is that damage to the Conservative Party (but look at the awful polling among younger people, for both EU and Westminster) is probably just related to this transitional issue and that a fair amount of Farage voters may actually not show up (and will definitely not show up in a Westminster election). However the future for the Conservatives looks very bleak, given almost non-existent appeal to younger people. Work to do! I’d be more worried about the Greens than Labour, let alone the one trick pony who seems to love MEP status so much that he wants to continue it.

I’ve seen lots of tweets and comments from Labour voters over the weekend saying to vote LibDem to overturn Brexit. Labour need to start being clear about their message to their supporters, are they offering to revoke A50 notice this EU election and put the whole thing up for a second vote/referendum or not because that’s what people like Starmer and Watson are saying out of one side of their mouth? John Ashworth says Labour are Pro-Brexit and Mays WA with knobs on, Gardiner says Labour are Anti-Brexit I’m not sure if he supports Mays WA? All very confusing.

And..the Conservatives just what are your MEPs supporting, May’s WA? Revoke and Second referendum? What does voting Conservative mean to people like you John and Daniel Hannan what an awkward spot your leadership have put you in.

I don’t want to know what Nigel Farage said in the past. I want to know who any Brexit MEPs we elect will group-with in the European Parliament. I want to know the same off all the applicant organisations. Who will the Tories sit with, who will Labour and the Lib Dems sit with?

There is no majority for your proposal in Parliament at this stage, so why, do you keep insisting on riding on the same old horse, instead of coming up with something that can be supported by a majority in Parliament?

Reply The EU Withdrawal Act allows us to leave without signing a new Treaty

About John Redwood

John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.