Brussels/Nairobi/Kinshasa, 16 November 2001: The failure of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue in Addis Ababa in October was foreseeable. With war grinding on in the Kivus, neither the DRC government nor its opponents strong enough to gain the upper hand in negotiations, and no interest on the part of neighbouring powers in seeing a regime in Kinshasa that they don’t control, the process was postponed to an unspecified date.

ICG’s new report, The Inter-Congolese Dialogue: Political Negotiation or a Game of Bluff? analyses the impasse in the peace process. President Joseph Kabila and his backers refuse to consider power-sharing through the Dialogue with anti-government rebels without guarantees of Rwanda and Uganda’s full withdrawal from DRC. At the same time, the rebels and their sponsors, including Rwanda and Uganda, refuse to consider full withdrawal until a transition government is established through the Dialogue and their security is guaranteed. As a result, low-intensity conflict remains the preferred option for most of the external actors.

ICG Central Africa Project Director Dr Francois Grignon said: “Neither President Kabila’s allies, nor his enemies, will allow full restoration of Congolese sovereignty and territorial integrity until their own political, economic and security ‘shopping lists’ have been satisfied. The international community should become more proactive in countering the dynamics that maintain the conflict in the Kivus. Until this occurs the Inter-Congolese Dialogue will remain a game of bluff.”

The international community must recognise that the Kabila government is too weak to meet expectations without an external mediator or guarantor. ICG Africa Program Co-Director Fabienne Hara said: “The Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement, signed two years ago, must become a fully negotiated Peace Agreement. This requires much more active support for direct dialogue between the belligerents – ideally with the personal involvement of the United Nations Secretary General. At the very least, the international community must establish a joint co-ordination mechanism on disarmament, demobilisation, repatriation, resettlement and reintegration (DDRRR) of the armed groups – as called for in UN Resolution 1376 of 7 November 2001.”

Detailed preparation work must be undertaken, and lessons learned from the failure in Addis Ababa before any new meeting is called in South Africa. Energetic diplomacy is needed to bring the parties closer together and a detailed review of the entire process, including the methodology of the facilitation team, must be carried out.

Finally it is vital that foreign belligerents make a formal public commitment to supporting the resolutions adopted by the Dialogue and that the Kinshasa and Harare governments end their support for the rebel forces.