Market Rebounds on Soft Dollar

This week in international economics defined markets with further concern for a global economic slowdown. Opinions can be found on both sides of the fence with some economists seeing a potential recession amidst Brexit turmoil, limited European growth and reduced Asian output, while others claim that deceleration is a normal result of the labor market nearing capacity. Markets traded lower during most of the week, only enjoying a rebound after the US Labor Department reported the largest increase in non-farm payrolls since last October. The US Dollar’s strengthening and the Brazilian Real’s devaluation reversed courses today, lending to the bullish sentiment in commodities overall. In coffee fundamentals, Colombia’s trucker strike continues unabated while the Brazilian harvest reaches its midpoint. Happy Friday.

Technical factors and currency markets exerted the most influence on C market pricing this week. On the technical front, a “head and shoulders” formation in the hourly chart below shows how after three successive failures to break above the $1.4685 resistance, the C market plummeted to nearby support at $1.4145. This movement fell in line with broader financial markets as well, as pessimism over European economics and a firm USD weighed on the C, until today’s devaluation allowed the market enough breathing room to recover to $1.4410.

On the daily chart, the C market continues to fill out the room allowed between the rising trend-line and the $1.4685 resistance. With this week’s movements well within the range, the market appears willing to keep consolidating until further motivation appears from a fundamental or macro-economic angle. If the market does break with the rising trend, it would have to reassert itself below $1.4145 to indicate downside conviction.