Just a quickie here. To make any sort of sweeping judgment one way or another about what to do in leagues is always dangerous, it’s never black and white and circumstances change. That’s why you often the first part of any answer in a chat of fantasy baseball questions be: “it depends”. One such area is extending pitchers. It, too, lives in the gray, but I’d say it is closer to the definitive are than other rules. Extending pitcher contracts is rarely a great idea, though it can still be a good one, just one rife with risk. Now before you email me citing your offensive player extension that went awry because of injury, let me be clear that I’m aware of the fact that every player carries risk of getting hurt. That’s just the nature of sports.

However, you cannot deny that there is heightened risk with starting pitchers and knowingly assuming that risk isn’t always a good idea. Even the most rock solid guys can turn at the drop of a hat. Consider these three recent cases. Let’s start at the low-end where the breakdown wasn’t an overwhelming shock if only because of his age. Roy Halladay was coming off six straight amazingly strong seasons during which he went at least 220 innings and averaged 236. There was no way he was on anyone’s roster at a cheap price this time last year, but he might’ve been at a fair price once you factor inflation leading some to hang onto him thinking it was as safe as can be for a pitcher. He was kept in one of my NL-Only leagues for a mid-$30s cost when he’d have easily gone north of $40. We know how it turned out. He looked human for the first time since 2004 pitching just 156.3 innings and posting a 4.49 ERA. Now at 36, he’s going at a discounted rate as if 2012 is the new norm and his previously insane track record of awesomeness is but a memory.

Next up is Dan Haren heading into the 10th year of his career, he too wasn’t on anyone’s roster for $15 dollars or anything, but coming off of his 2010 where he had a 3.91 ERA, he came at a discount in 2011 drafts making him someone who was likely below market in many leagues and could be another guy who you keep just to avoid any inflation in the auction. He’d made 33 starts a year or more for seven straight seasons including 34 four times and even 35 once. He averaged 226 innings during the stretch with an excellent set of base skills. His workhorse reputation led me to say this in 2012’s pitching guide:

He remains one of the most rock solid pitchers in all of baseball with no fewer than 216 innings since 2005 and increasing workloads yearly since 2008 topping out at last year’s 238.

Whoops. A balky back proved too difficult to pitch through and he went just 176.7 innings with stretches of ugliness that led to a 4.33 ERA. We saw runs of the brilliant Haren, too, but not enough to cancel the bad. No one is immune.

And the most disastrous of them all whose retirement actually prompted the idea to discuss this a while back: Brandon Webb. If there was one thing you could rely on Webb for it was innings and good ones at that. He struggled with walks in his second season leading to an ugly 1.51 WHIP, but his 3.59 ERA was still pretty solid and proved to be the worst of his career (not counting the 13.50 in his 4-inning swan song “season” of 2009). Starting in 2004 he went 208, 229, 235, 236.3, and 226.7. All before 30 years old.

Just keep these three cases (and many, many more) in mind this winter when you are deciding on your keeper lists. The more pitchers you have, the more risk you’re assuming. Again, this doesn’t mean that you should cut your $3 R.A. Dickeyloose or not give Chris Sale a contract for 2013. But start thinking long and hard about extensions to pitchers. How many years do you want to commit to Sale beyond this one? Say you had him at $1 because he used to be a reliever, but now he’s due up for a contract at $5 per year.

Sure, $16 sounds plenty reasonable because he’d sure as hell go for more than that this year in the auction, but now you’re betting on 2013, 2014, and 2015. Just go $6 and enjoy the crazy value this year (assuming he’s stay upright of course) and work on finding the next Sale. How many of your are in the midst of Brandon Beachy or Cory Luebke contracts? This goes double for leagues where they let you out of contracts if they go sour, but charge penalties to do so. Those of you enjoying a David Price contract should be very thankful. It has worked out brilliantly. It’s the exception.

Go back and look through top prospects lists and see how many guys didn’t work out as panned and try to recall some of the trades you made to earn their rights. Again, there is risk throughout our game, but the point is to minimize how much you can incur. Extending a pitching beyond the upcoming year is the easiest way to get a double serving of risk you thought you were ordering.

OK, that wasn’t as quick as I thought. I tend to get going sometimes and end up much longer winded than anticipated.

Oof, ugly week. On the heels of the best week of the season, Trolling turned in the 2nd-worst of the year with a 4.25 ERA. Five of the 15 picks performed well so hopefully you picked some or all of those. I realize most people don’t use every pick during a given week so I just hope on the down weeks that you got in on a few of the favorable results so I didn’t totally sink your pitching for a week.

I remember on Saturday seeing Washington with a goose egg into the 7th and I was excited that John Danks was helping salvage the week, but alas he went out with an injury after just 1.7 innings. In fact, he ended up on the disabled list shortly thereafter. Had he gone seven shutout innings, the week would have been right at 4.00 ERA. Oh well, time to regroup. There is a light slate on Monday and I only have one choice, so I’ll share that now and then post Tuesday-Friday by Monday afternoon.

MONDAY:

Brandon Beachy (ATL @ SEA) – Came off of the disabled list with a bang striking out 11 Blue Jays. He gets a worse team in a better ballpark and there is no reason to stick with him, especially as his ownership rate sits well below where it should be as he was cut a lot while injured (Y! 49%, ESPN 68%, CBS 88%). He won’t be available everywhere and especially in really active leagues, but definitely check just to make sure. If he throws another gem on Monday, he will almost certainly be snapped too much for Trolling.

It’s time for my prospect rankings for each league and I want to throw out a few points before I get to today’s National League list:

o I’m new to prospecting. This is my first ranking of prospects as I’ve spent the last two years getting better at it before finally diving in this year. Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, John Sickels, Jason Collette, the BA folks(Jim Callis, Aaron Fitt, John Manuel, etc…)and Adam Foster are all much more seasoned, just to name a handful whose work I enjoy. I stand 100% behind the work, but this isn’t yet an area of expertise for me. I wouldn’t necessarily be eager to suggest anything is an area of “expertise” for me, but I’m much more in my element discussing major leaguers right now, but I want to get better at prospecting so it’s time to start ranking.

o I have seen a handful of these guys live, though the bulk of my experience with them comes from reading extensively and watching video online.

o The ranking combines the best-case scenario with how likely they are to reach it. This means someone might project with a higher ceiling, but be less likely to reach it and thus rank below someone with a lower ceiling who is closer to it.

o This doesn’t slant toward 2011. It’s all encompassing. In other words, don’t use it in your re-draft fantasy leagues and get upset with me if Arodys Vizcaino doesn’t throw 120 innings for you later this summer. It’s meant more for leagues with minor league rosters of any size and dynasty leagues.

RK

Player

TEAM

ETA

Ceiling

1

Julio Teheran

ATL

2012

1

2

Jameson Taillon

PIT

2014

1

3

Mike Minor

ATL

2010

2

4

Jarrod Parker

ARI

2011

1

5

Shelby Miller

STL

2012

1

6

Simon Castro

SD

2011

1

7

Jordan Lyles

HOU

2011

2

8

Jenrry Mejia

NYM

2010

1

9

Randall Delgado

ATL

2012

1

10

Tyler Matzek

COL

2013

1

11

Zach Lee

LAD

2013

1

12

Casey Kelly

SD

2012

2

13

Trey McNutt

CHC

2012

1/Closer

14

Arodys Vizcaino

ATL

2013

1

15

Trevor May

PHI

2013

1

16

Stetson Allie

PIT

2014

1/Closer

17

Matt Harvey

NYM

2013

1

18

Zack Wheeler

SF

2013

1

19

Brandon Beachy

ATL

2010

3

20

Jarred Cosart

PHI

2014

2

21

Christian Friedrich

COL

2011

2

22

Tyler Skaggs

ARi

2013

2

23

Chad James

FLO

2013

2

24

Cory Luebke

SD

2010

3

25

Brody Colvin

PHI

2014

1

26

AJ Cole

WAS

2014

2

27

Chris Withrow

LAD

2012

2

28

Rubby de la Rosa

LAD

2013

1

29

Brad Hand

FLO

2012

3

30

Mike Foltynewicz

HOU

2014

2

31

Luis Heredia

PIT

2014

1

32

Chad Bettis

COL

2014

3

33

Jesse Biddle

PHI

2014

2

34

Juan Urbina

NYM

2014

2

35

Jay Jackson

CHC

2011

3

36

Lance Lynn

STL

2011

3

37

Juan Nicasio

COL

2013

2

38

Sammy Solis

WAS

2012

3

39

Aaron Miller

LAD

2012

3

40

Hayden Simpson

CHC

2013

2

41

Carlos Martinez

STL

2014

1

42

Daryl Thompson

CIN

2008

3

43

Ethan Martin

LAD

2013

2

44

David Holmberg

ARI

2014

3

45

JJ Hoover

ATL

2012

3

46

Pat Corbin

ARI

2013

3

47

Mark Rogers

MIL

2010

3

48

Tyrell Jenkins

STL

2015

2

49

Bryan Morris

PIT

2011

3

50

Brad Boxberger

CIN

2012

3

I’ll be hosting a chat soon to discuss both this and more of the Starting Pitching Guide. Plan for next Thursday, but I’ll definitely post the details ahead of time. In the meantime you can reach me on Twitter or Facebook if you have questions about this list.