2013 - Battle for the living room

With the battle for the desktop over since last century, and the battle for mobile being mostly stable through 2012, perhaps 2013 is the year of the battle for the living room.

Notable announcements from the usual suspects shining by absence at CES, I think all cards are still on the table. But with rumors of Apple’s TV set still strong and new consoles from incumbents and newcomers alike around the corner, 2013 might see some shifts in the device that’s under your TV.

So let’s meet the contenders. The list below is companies vying for the living room, be it with hardware, software, content or some mix of those three. I’ve divided them by the angle that’s taken to corner the market.

Gaming angle:

1. Nintendo Wii U

The “old” Nintendo Wii was the biggest selling console of the previous generation, selling as near as makes no diference 100 million units. The current Wii U however isn’t off to such a great start, so it will remain to be seen if sales will pick up so the Wii U can get a decent foothold.

2. PlayStation4 &Xbox720

The second best selling console, the PS3 didn’t really outsell the xbox360 by all that much. Sony and Microsoft split the rest of the console market between them with around 76 million units. Early rumors however indicate that this generation, both will be based around roughly the same hardware courtesy of AMD, both will probably offer a BluRay drive, and both will lose backwards compatibility. How much the current install base will matter for the next generation is uncertain. But since both will be based on roughly the same HW and both companies most likely selling at a loss, price will likely be quite similar.Success then will ultimately lie in two things: the eco-systems, subscription model, games, and extra features; and the money either company is willing to spend to get its console noticed.

3. Steam box

Details on this one are still sparse. Early rumors indicate that it may run on (a modified version of) Ubuntu, running Steam big picture mode. It will then depend on whether game studio’s will be willing to write for the platform. And with possibly few AAA launch games, Valve may find itself in a catch22. Another option is that the steambox will be running on windows. In this case it’ll be just another small PC with a controller. In this case it will have to be the job of the marketing department to make this PC succeed where generations of PC’s failed to go.

Video content angle:

1. Apple TV

Apple’s next disruption, just around the corner for the last few years. The amount of fuzz this is generating in the blogosphere indicates that many people agree that the TV market is ready for disruption. If they do indeed release a totally new aTV that’s not just an evolution, it probably will revolutionize the TV market. But then just like the iPhone, mostly for a certain subset of people that conform to a certain set of requirements. Being tightly linked to the iTunes store, geographic location might as well be a show stopper for most countries not neighboring both Canada and Mexico.

2. Google TV

Although they aren’t admitting it, Google is ostensibly trying to break the Cable TV model. Google TV is probably even “hobby-er” than Apple’s aTV, but other efforts like Google Fiber, YouTube’s paid channels and bespoke content are also pointing in this direction.However, Google still has a long way to go here. Putting Google TV on the same release schedule as android would be a good start. Releasing a Nexus reference device would be another one.

3. Intel’s IPTV box

Intel wants to release an IPTV box that will offer all the content you should need. The question is whether they can deliver all that, and in an attractive package. Negotiating content deals with the providers is key here, and unless enough of them go along, the advantage over Netflix + Hulu is limited.

Media player angle:

1. All.

I’m just going to lump all media players in one big category here. The jist is: some hardware running some software playing content provided by a third party. That third party can be your own NAS, DVD’s, Netflix, hulu, etc.These devices will work fine, but they have no real unique selling point that can’t be matched by other vendors. Examples include: Boxee Box, WDTV live, Eminent HD, Asus O!Play, Roku, etc.

Geek angle:

1. Ouya

The Ouya will not be a runaway success and it will not reach a large install base. There, I said it. However, that isn’t to say I think it will be a failure. I think it will corner a sizable niche, and attract a very large modding community. But rule the TV screen, it will not.

2. HTPC

HTPC’s have never been a success, and this year will be no different. Again, tech-minded people will continue to hook up their PC’s to the TV (as will I). And with Steam’s big picture mode there might be a larger group of gamers doing so as well. Getting a capable PC that’s fit for the living room will be easier, with choices of intel’s haswell, AMD’s A10, Atom and mITX barebones.

3. Chinese android HDMI-sticks

Sold throughout 2012 as cheap and cheerful devices to put the smart in your TV. Except for the cheerful part, where both hardware and software are largely buggy. Perhaps as quality and usability pick up, sales might as well. But mainstream users probably won’t bother without a killer app.

4. Raspberry Pi

It’s already a success in its niche, and will probably continue to be. Maybe a more powerful model will complement the line-up in 2013.

5. Ubuntu TV – on ARM

Not holding my breath for this one. Canonical will have its hands full with mobile.

Bold prediction angle:

1. Amazon prime box

Just like in the tablet market: Amazon has the store, and wants to put it in front of you as cheaply as possible. Like the xbox and the PS the device will be subsidized, yet unlike them the HW doesn’t need to be all that powerful. With and Ouya and aTV going for $99 and android sticks for less than half that, they might as well throw them in for free with a prime subscription.

2. Samsung Tizen TV sets

While Samsung currently uses its own platform for smart TV’s, Tizen was always intended to be used on TV’s as well. As the biggest manufacturer of flat panel TV’s with over a quarter of all global shipments, this would instantly propel Tizen as a major platform contender.

So Ars: what is your opinion, who do you think the biggest contenders for the living room will be? Will we be able to name a victor by year’s end, or will this go on through 2014?

(I will try to follow-up this post as much as my busy schedule allows me)

So Ars: what is your opinion, who do you think the biggest contenders for the living room will be? Will we be able to name a victor by year’s end, or will this go on through 2014?

None. You had this ability to do all these things for quite a few years now (well before the appleTV ever came out). It never amounted to squat.

IMHO the problem is they don't want to enhance TV viewing, they want to replace it. For all the hype no one really wants to do that quite yet. They want to watch those abc comedies on Wednesday night and not have to screw with watching them ala carte.

I personally don't consider watching a movie on a 3.5" screen phone as "entertainment". Just because you can do something anywhere doesn't mean you want to do that.

What I think is:

PS4 and 720 will remain as a gaming device with media support - people will buy it because of game, not its media functionality. Those who own them will probably be satisfied with the media support and not consider another media device.

Android stick and HTPC will continue to remain in geekland who like to rip every single bluray that they own (or not) and store them in a 12TB home server. They will remain in a minority.

Roku and other dumb media player will be popular among the non tech savvy crowd that uses Netflix and such. However with smart TV coming with those features they will become less important.

Google and Apple TV will probably seek further integration with your phone/tablet. Something like using your phone as an advance remote control like Nexus Q. However they will not gain much traction unless they are built in to the TV.

Most people will continue to pay $100 for cable TV, getting 500 channels while watching at most 5.

You can't really talk about this without discussing the labyrinthine contractual deals and reluctance of the TV and movie studios to get on board and cede power, right alongside the deeply vested interests of the cable companies. This space is a mess, and the solution will be equally (if not more so than) figuring out the negotiations vs just the technology.

I could easily see the current stalemate dragging on for some time, until some crisis (the increase of higher-speed broadband + torrenting?) forces a solution.

You can't really talk about this without discussing the labyrinthine contractual deals and reluctance of the TV and movie studios to get on board and cede power, right alongside the deeply vested interests of the cable companies. This space is a mess, and the solution will be equally (if not more so than) figuring out the negotiations vs just the technology.

I could easily see the current stalemate dragging on for some time, until some crisis (the increase of higher-speed broadband + torrenting?) forces a solution.

Exactly.

Add on the fact that for anyone in a major market, you have a fairly substantial set of free OTA TV offerings. There is no simple answer.

Although, I will say this, Google announced back in december that it was selling the Settop Box/Cable modem division of Motorola Mobility.

Someone please explain to me how selling off one of if not the biggest incumbent in set top boxes helps googleTV?

I'm not sure how it helps or hurts it honestly. The issue with Google TV isn't technical; it's the total opposition of the industry to it. If the industry would allow it, there would be products almost instantly.

With the battle for the desktop over since last century, and the battle for mobile being mostly stable through 2012, perhaps 2013 is the year of the battle for the living room.

Notable announcements from the usual suspects shining by absence at CES, I think all cards are still on the table. But with rumors of Apple’s TV set still strong and new consoles from incumbents and newcomers alike around the corner, 2013 might see some shifts in the device that’s under your TV.

So let’s meet the contenders. The list below is companies vying for the living room, be it with hardware, software, content or some mix of those three. I’ve divided them by the angle that’s taken to corner the market.

Gaming angle:

1. Nintendo Wii U

The “old” Nintendo Wii was the biggest selling console of the previous generation, selling as near as makes no diference 100 million units. The current Wii U however isn’t off to such a great start, so it will remain to be seen if sales will pick up so the Wii U can get a decent foothold.

I will disagree here; the current Wii U is performing as well as the PS3 or XBox 360 circa Jan 2007 or Jan 2006, respectively. If you can attack the Wii U by implying doubt about it's future performance, then you also associate by similarity that the XBox 360 and PS3 don't also have decent footholds when they already do, by dint of being 2/3 the install base of the Wii. The Wii U will live and die on it's flagship titles like Mario Kart, Pokemon, Mario Bros.

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2. PlayStation4 &Xbox720

The second best selling console, the PS3 didn’t really outsell the xbox360 by all that much. Sony and Microsoft split the rest of the console market between them with around 76 million units. Early rumors however indicate that this generation, both will be based around roughly the same hardware courtesy of AMD, both will probably offer a BluRay drive, and both will lose backwards compatibility. How much the current install base will matter for the next generation is uncertain. But since both will be based on roughly the same HW and both companies most likely selling at a loss, price will likely be quite similar.Success then will ultimately lie in two things: the eco-systems, subscription model, games, and extra features; and the money either company is willing to spend to get its console noticed.

Again I disagree. Success will depend on up front cost of the HW compared to the Wii U (too high and it will flop), game selection (the Wii U has a guaranteed supply of first party Nintendo titles while the PS4/XB3 don't), and wow (how good does the game really look compared to the Wii U). To put the game selection in comparison, the best selling XBox 360 game was Kinect Adventures, and it was handily outsold by New Super Mario Bros Wii. The best selling Wii game was Mario Kart Wii. The next XBox title in the list was CoD:MW.

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3. Steam box

Details on this one are still sparse. Early rumors indicate that it may run on (a modified version of) Ubuntu, running Steam big picture mode. It will then depend on whether game studio’s will be willing to write for the platform. And with possibly few AAA launch games, Valve may find itself in a catch22. Another option is that the steambox will be running on windows. In this case it’ll be just another small PC with a controller. In this case it will have to be the job of the marketing department to make this PC succeed where generations of PC’s failed to go.

I would totally discount the Steam Box unless they can manage a $299 or so price point.

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Video content angle:

1. Apple TV

Apple’s next disruption, just around the corner for the last few years. The amount of fuzz this is generating in the blogosphere indicates that many people agree that the TV market is ready for disruption. If they do indeed release a totally new aTV that’s not just an evolution, it probably will revolutionize the TV market. But then just like the iPhone, mostly for a certain subset of people that conform to a certain set of requirements. Being tightly linked to the iTunes store, geographic location might as well be a show stopper for most countries not neighboring both Canada and Mexico.

You don't take into account that Apple TV's disruption may be much more than video, including games and apps. The disruption is going to be sneaky and probably only an OS update away. They just added BT keyboard support a month ago, and BT mouse and controller support, apps, and games are also only an update away.

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2. Google TV

Although they aren’t admitting it, Google is ostensibly trying to break the Cable TV model. Google TV is probably even “hobby-er” than Apple’s aTV, but other efforts like Google Fiber, YouTube’s paid channels and bespoke content are also pointing in this direction.However, Google still has a long way to go here. Putting Google TV on the same release schedule as android would be a good start. Releasing a Nexus reference device would be another one.

Until Google integrates Google TV into every single HDMI capable Android device, I discount Google TV as a serious effort. At least Apple provides built in iOS integration between Apple TV and iOS devices, as well as video mirroring via HDMI of any iOS device; Google didn't support broadcast to Google TV until just last November, making Google a couple years behind Apple at this point.

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3. Intel’s IPTV box

Intel wants to release an IPTV box that will offer all the content you should need. The question is whether they can deliver all that, and in an attractive package. Negotiating content deals with the providers is key here, and unless enough of them go along, the advantage over Netflix + Hulu is limited.

Intel will have to go into the CE business; they can't rely on a third party to win for them. I'm not sure how Intel will manage this.

I've snipped the remaining options as irrelevant to discussion at this point.

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So Ars: what is your opinion, who do you think the biggest contenders for the living room will be? Will we be able to name a victor by year’s end, or will this go on through 2014?

(I will try to follow-up this post as much as my busy schedule allows me)

I think Apple TV will win if they enable games and BT cursor (iOS already acts like a trackpad, btw, but that's an expensive trackpad) in 2013.

If they don't I think the Wii U will win by sheer dint of first party games and low cost. When a PS4 or XBox 3 clock in at $500 and Nintendo is only $299, or when they drop the price of the Wii U to $199, I'm not sure that anyone can justify paying more for a PS4 or XBox 3.

You can't really talk about this without discussing the labyrinthine contractual deals and reluctance of the TV and movie studios to get on board and cede power, right alongside the deeply vested interests of the cable companies. This space is a mess, and the solution will be equally (if not more so than) figuring out the negotiations vs just the technology.

I could easily see the current stalemate dragging on for some time, until some crisis (the increase of higher-speed broadband + torrenting?) forces a solution.

True, but the same could be said about the record companies reluctance to offer their music online, and then online without DRM. Yet they where disrupted.

I agree that is where the difficulty lies, but I don't think its impossible. It will take the right partner with the right leverage, aided by a good experience for and demand by consumers.

About Google selling off the set top part of Motorola: I was disappointed, but it had to be done to save the value of that department/asset. Google burned its bridges with the cable companies the first time they released Google TV. (Remember the instant blocking of services like HBO go on Google TV devices). Google will have to go another route to break into the market, lest they want to end up as a glorified streaming box provider.

The "killer app" may come in the form of a must watch series available only on demand. Google has the cash to pull something like this off if they wanted, but they would couple it to YouTube (and every device capable of accessing it) instead of just Google TV.

I don't know who would go that route, or has the strategic intention of doing so. Apple perhaps?

I will disagree here; the current Wii U is performing as well as the PS3 or XBox 360 circa Jan 2007 or Jan 2006, respectively. If you can attack the Wii U by implying doubt about it's future performance, then you also associate by similarity that the XBox 360 and PS3 don't also have decent footholds when they already do, by dint of being 2/3 the install base of the Wii. The Wii U will live and die on it's flagship titles like Mario Kart, Pokemon, Mario Bros.

Wouldn't the more honest comparison be to the original Wii? Also I'd make the argument that post PC devices have disrupted the WiiU, and has stolen away it's customers similar to the disaster of the Vita. But we'll see as the year goes on.

I will disagree here; the current Wii U is performing as well as the PS3 or XBox 360 circa Jan 2007 or Jan 2006, respectively. If you can attack the Wii U by implying doubt about it's future performance, then you also associate by similarity that the XBox 360 and PS3 don't also have decent footholds when they already do, by dint of being 2/3 the install base of the Wii. The Wii U will live and die on it's flagship titles like Mario Kart, Pokemon, Mario Bros.

Wouldn't the more honest comparison be to the original Wii?

Not if your second point holds true. If your second point is true, then the post PC devices will also disrupt the PS4 and XB3 and they will perform even more poorly and nothing can be compared to the original Wii.

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Also I'd make the argument that post PC devices have disrupted the WiiU, and has stolen away it's customers similar to the disaster of the Vita. But we'll see as the year goes on.

You can't really talk about this without discussing the labyrinthine contractual deals and reluctance of the TV and movie studios to get on board and cede power, right alongside the deeply vested interests of the cable companies. This space is a mess, and the solution will be equally (if not more so than) figuring out the negotiations vs just the technology.

I could easily see the current stalemate dragging on for some time, until some crisis (the increase of higher-speed broadband + torrenting?) forces a solution.

True, but the same could be said about the record companies reluctance to offer their music online, and then online without DRM. Yet they where disrupted.

I agree that is where the difficulty lies, but I don't think its impossible. It will take the right partner with the right leverage, aided by a good experience for and demand by consumers.

About Google selling off the set top part of Motorola: I was disappointed, but it had to be done to save the value of that department/asset. Google burned its bridges with the cable companies the first time they released Google TV. (Remember the instant blocking of services like HBO go on Google TV devices). Google will have to go another route to break into the market, lest they want to end up as a glorified streaming box provider.

The "killer app" may come in the form of a must watch series available only on demand. Google has the cash to pull something like this off if they wanted, but they would couple it to YouTube (and every device capable of accessing it) instead of just Google TV.

I don't know who would go that route, or has the strategic intention of doing so. Apple perhaps?

This ignores the fundamental differences between the Television and Music markets.

The only player in music that is even somewhat similar to a Cable provider is Sirius/XM and they don't have the market penetration or power the the content providers that the Cable and Sat companies do. And Ultimately, the Television content providers and distributors saw what happened to the Music industry and they are fighting tooth and nail.

Netflix and Hulu were the plays in this market and they have not had the overwhelming crush of success that iTunes/iPod had. No one else will do any better in the next year.

I will disagree here; the current Wii U is performing as well as the PS3 or XBox 360 circa Jan 2007 or Jan 2006, respectively. If you can attack the Wii U by implying doubt about it's future performance, then you also associate by similarity that the XBox 360 and PS3 don't also have decent footholds when they already do, by dint of being 2/3 the install base of the Wii. The Wii U will live and die on it's flagship titles like Mario Kart, Pokemon, Mario Bros.

True. Nintendo's success will however hinge on them being ubiquitous in households. I haven't seen them make any real efforts to go into this battle, but opportunity is the mother of... Eh invention? You see my point :-)

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Again I disagree. Success will depend on up front cost of the HW compared to the Wii U (too high and it will flop), game selection (the Wii U has a guaranteed supply of first party Nintendo titles while the PS4/XB3 don't), and wow (how good does the game really look compared to the Wii U). To put the game selection in comparison, the best selling XBox 360 game was Kinect Adventures, and it was handily outsold by New Super Mario Bros Wii. The best selling Wii game was Mario Kart Wii. The next XBox title in the list was CoD:MW.

When judging the success of the game console an sich, you might be right. (However one hit on a platform does not a winner make) however Microsoft especially has been keen to enter the market discussed, and Sony has a movie studio.

And this time around casual games can be played on a multitude of devices, so the situation will be different. Both Sony and Microsoft have plenty of die hard fans that will buy the console to play AAA games.

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I would totally discount the Steam Box unless they can manage a $299 or so price point.

Agreed, and even then games selection will make or break it.

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You don't take into account that Apple TV's disruption may be much more than video, including games and apps. The disruption is going to be sneaky and probably only an OS update away. They just added BT keyboard support a month ago, and BT mouse and controller support, apps, and games are also only an update away.

I agree that the disruption will be more than video. And that disruption is indeed often unforseen by incumbents.

However it will never just be a dirty hack. It will happen when it's ready, and when Apple feels the experience is 'perfect'. Controlling a stb with a mouse is going backwards.

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Until Google integrates Google TV into every single HDMI capable Android device, I discount Google TV as a serious effort. At least Apple provides built in iOS integration between Apple TV and iOS devices, as well as video mirroring via HDMI of any iOS device; Google didn't support broadcast to Google TV until just last November, making Google a couple years behind Apple at this point.

Google's current offering is lackluster at best, but if and when they do decide to put their weight behind it it won't take a couple of years to offer something to competitive. Google's difficulties of competing have usually not been technical in nature, but rather business wise.

I will disagree here; the current Wii U is performing as well as the PS3 or XBox 360 circa Jan 2007 or Jan 2006, respectively. If you can attack the Wii U by implying doubt about it's future performance, then you also associate by similarity that the XBox 360 and PS3 don't also have decent footholds when they already do, by dint of being 2/3 the install base of the Wii. The Wii U will live and die on it's flagship titles like Mario Kart, Pokemon, Mario Bros.

Wouldn't the more honest comparison be to the original Wii?

Not if your second point holds true. If your second point is true, then the post PC devices will also disrupt the PS4 and XB3 and they will perform even more poorly and nothing can be compared to the original Wii.

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Also I'd make the argument that post PC devices have disrupted the WiiU, and has stolen away it's customers similar to the disaster of the Vita. But we'll see as the year goes on.

We certainly will see, especially when the PS4 and XB3 are released.

Well my theory on that, is this: I think the PS4/Xbox whatever are far more insulated to that type of disruption since the audience for those devices are much more hardcore than the Wii, or any product Nintendo makes; there's simply no comparable experience to Halo, or Gears of War, or God of War or The Last of Us on any smartphone/tablet out there. Approximations sure (that Halo clone N.O.V.A. comes to mind) but I don't see hardcore gamers forgoing experiences like this to play Infinity Blade on their TV.

I'm more than open to be proven wrong though. I could definitely see an Apple TV with apps disrupting Xbox Live/PSN titles but I don't see it for AAA blockbuster titles in the next gen.

EDIT: Kind of ironic in a way: in trying to disrupt traditional consoles with motion controls Nintendo inadvertently ran right into the teeth of much bigger, far more disruptive competitors in Apple and Google.

This ignores the fundamental differences between the Television and Music markets.

The only player in music that is even somewhat similar to a Cable provider is Sirius/XM and they don't have the market penetration or power the the content providers that the Cable and Sat companies do. And Ultimately, the Television content providers and distributors saw what happened to the Music industry and they are fighting tooth and nail.

Netflix and Hulu were the plays in this market and they have not had the overwhelming crush of success that iTunes/iPod had.

Different as they may be, they have similarities. Both pay people to produce content they consequently and for all intents and purposes own, and distribute via channels or their choosing. At some point customers become unhappy with the middle man and his impact on the process, how ever value added it is or isn't. And when capable alternatives are available they will vote with their feet.

Which is why cable companies ARE fighting tooth and nail to prevent that from happening.

We were talking about this in another thread, but I still think the solution to TV disruption has more to do with money than technology, and with tech companies oddly reluctant to spend the money necessary to attract top flight content creation talent the status quo likely won't change for a while, and definitely not within the year.

The Wii U will live and die on it's flagship titles like Mario Kart, Pokemon, Mario Bros.

True. Nintendo's success will however hinge on them being ubiquitous in households.

No, it won't. Nintendo's success will hinge on selling an average of 3 or so titles per Wii U to cover the cost of the tablet and 4 or so titles per Wii U to make a profit. Anything beyond that is cream.

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I haven't seen them make any real efforts to go into this battle, but opportunity is the mother of... Eh invention? You see my point :-)

Nintendo has a full lineup of games in the queue; it is only a matter of execution and time.

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Again I disagree. Success will depend on up front cost of the HW compared to the Wii U (too high and it will flop), game selection (the Wii U has a guaranteed supply of first party Nintendo titles while the PS4/XB3 don't), and wow (how good does the game really look compared to the Wii U). To put the game selection in comparison, the best selling XBox 360 game was Kinect Adventures, and it was handily outsold by New Super Mario Bros Wii. The best selling Wii game was Mario Kart Wii. The next XBox title in the list was CoD:MW.

When judging the success of the game console an sich, you might be right. (However one hit on a platform does not a winner make) however Microsoft especially has been keen to enter the market discussed, and Sony has a movie studio.

And this time around casual games can be played on a multitude of devices, so the situation will be different. Both Sony and Microsoft have plenty of die hard fans that will buy the console to play AAA games.

And that is irrelevant! My point was that NSMW and MKW both outsold the highest selling XBox game; if Sony and Microsoft have plenty of die hard fans, it just means that Microsoft and Sony will be losing billions of dollars in HW subsidies just to enter the market.

Nintendo, on the other hand, has plenty of system selling games, coupled with a low cost HW entry. 33m copies of MKW were sold, or about 1/3 of Wii owners; 26m copies of NSMW were sold, or 1/4 of Wii owners.

The best selling title, Kinect Adventures, hit about 1/4 of XBox owners; the next best selling title, CoD:WM3, only 1 in 5.

And this ignores the fact that Nintendo sold many more games than just Mario Kart and Mario Bros; between those two titles was 31m of Wii Sports Resport and 28m Wii Play, and below that lives Wii Fit at 22m, Wii Fit Plus at 21m, before you hit Kinect Adventures at 19m.

This ignores of course Wii Sports, which reached 8/10 of Wii owners.

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I would totally discount the Steam Box unless they can manage a $299 or so price point.

Agreed, and even then games selection will make or break it.

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You don't take into account that Apple TV's disruption may be much more than video, including games and apps. The disruption is going to be sneaky and probably only an OS update away. They just added BT keyboard support a month ago, and BT mouse and controller support, apps, and games are also only an update away.

I agree that the disruption will be more than video. And that disruption is indeed often unforseen by incumbents.

However it will never just be a dirty hack. It will happen when it's ready, and when Apple feels the experience is 'perfect'. Controlling a stb with a mouse is going backwards.

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Until Google integrates Google TV into every single HDMI capable Android device, I discount Google TV as a serious effort. At least Apple provides built in iOS integration between Apple TV and iOS devices, as well as video mirroring via HDMI of any iOS device; Google didn't support broadcast to Google TV until just last November, making Google a couple years behind Apple at this point.

Google's current offering is lackluster at best, but if and when they do decide to put their weight behind it it won't take a couple of years to offer something to competitive. Google's difficulties of competing have usually not been technical in nature, but rather business wise.

Given how painfully slow Android updates are, of course it will take a couple years.

With so much of the distribution network being owned by content providers, it will be hard. The Television group was the biggest contributor to Disney's bottom line last year with ABC/ESPN/etc even out revenuing the Theme Parks. What possible incentive would they ever ever have to disrupt this model? And they, with their Apple connections and Iger's professed desire to move into new technologies like Hulu are really the most likely Candidate.

Given the intractable positions of content providers, the deplorable status quo will continue through 2013 and beyond.

However, Apple is the wildcard for games. If Apple manages to extend the App Store to the Apple TV, it could jump start the moribund console gaming business. It's not that Apple would necessarily become the platform leader in the living room like it has in mobile, though that is possible with a console that costs 99 dollars and sells games for 99 cents, but that Micorosft, Sony, and Nintendo will be forced to emulate the App Store model in the living room. That means full access for developers to their platforms, lots of cheap games for consumers. This could also give Android a boost as competitors like Samsung seek to copy Apple's success with the Apple TV using Android and little black boxes with rounded edges.

I just don't think console games, even cheap ones will drive this market sufficiently. Not so long as I have to jump to another input in order to watch broadcast television the night it airs. (Or CBS at all)

Intel wants to release an IPTV box that will offer all the content you should need. The question is whether they can deliver all that, and in an attractive package. Negotiating content deals with the providers is key here, and unless enough of them go along, the advantage over Netflix + Hulu is limited.

Intel will have to go into the CE business; they can't rely on a third party to win for them. I'm not sure how Intel will manage this.

I've snipped the remaining options as irrelevant to discussion at this point.

I just remembered Samsung and Intel are both developing Tizen. I don't know what synergies could spring from that.

Kind of weird as well, since both make all sorts of chips based on different architectures.

But if you consider the endpoints as customers on one side, and screenwriters/actors on the others, someone has to pay to produce and then distribute.

Nobody owns the screenwriters or actors, and other parties have cash and potentially the intention to pay to produce this content and distribuite it.

OrangeCream wrote:

Derrek wrote:

OrangeCream wrote:

The Wii U will live and die on it's flagship titles like Mario Kart, Pokemon, Mario Bros.

True. Nintendo's success will however hinge on them being ubiquitous in households.

No, it won't. Nintendo's success will hinge on selling an average of 3 or so titles per Wii U to cover the cost of the tablet and 4 or so titles per Wii U to make a profit. Anything beyond that is cream.

I snipped the rest of your post. Although probably correct, how many games are sold isn't relevant to the discussion here.

What matters is in how many households you can put your console, to make it the one thing to tie the TV watching/interacting experience together.

YoHo wrote:

I just don't think console games, even cheap ones will drive this market sufficiently. Not so long as I have to jump to another input in order to watch broadcast television the night it airs. (Or CBS at all)

I think this is key. Right now there's no seamless experience.

There's different boxes for:- the TV set- the cable box- The console box- the DVD/BluRay player- the home cinema set- the media streamer

many with overlapping functions.

in this scenario watching a DVD means wielding 3 remotes. Yes unified remotes do exist, but they aren't common.

I think Apple TV will win if they enable games and BT cursor (iOS already acts like a trackpad, btw, but that's an expensive trackpad) in 2013.

Based on what? Inferior hardware? Non existant HD games aimed at 42" displays?

If you think all that Apple has to do is enable games and add Bluetooth support you are absolutely and utterly delusional.

There's a big difference between shallow "snack while you commute" games versus big screen gaming. Either you go for shallow party games and run into the WII or you will have to go to toe with Xbox/Sony. Remember that Microsoft was huge when the launched the original Xbox and look where they are today. Somehow if Apple just adds bluetooth support the whole market will rol over?

Certainly, Apple could become a major player, but it's a lot more difficult than you make it out to be.

It's not that Apple would necessarily become the platform leader in the living room like it has in mobile, though that is possible with a console that costs 99 dollars and sells games for 99 cents, but that Micorosft, Sony, and Nintendo will be forced to emulate the App Store model in the living room.

And another one who thinks Angry birds is just as good on a television as Mario Kart. Never mind that the hardware of the Apple TV is hardly ready to do 3d games, something even the lowly Wii pulled of.

Jade, could you try argue this one on history, limitations, facts and specs before sprouting this ejaculation of Apple-love?

It's not that Apple would necessarily become the platform leader in the living room like it has in mobile, though that is possible with a console that costs 99 dollars and sells games for 99 cents, but that Micorosft, Sony, and Nintendo will be forced to emulate the App Store model in the living room.

And another one who thinks Angry birds is just as good on a television as Mario Kart. Never mind that the hardware of the Apple TV is hardly ready to do 3d games, something even the lowly Wii pulled of.

Jade, could you try argue this one on history, limitations, facts and specs before sprouting this ejaculation of Apple-love?

You realize that the A5 in the next Apple TV will be more powerful, GPU wise, than the original Wii, yes? And will be supplemented (possibly) by the GPUs in the paired iPhones?

It's not that Apple would necessarily become the platform leader in the living room like it has in mobile, though that is possible with a console that costs 99 dollars and sells games for 99 cents, but that Micorosft, Sony, and Nintendo will be forced to emulate the App Store model in the living room.

And another one who thinks Angry birds is just as good on a television as Mario Kart. Never mind that the hardware of the Apple TV is hardly ready to do 3d games, something even the lowly Wii pulled of.

Jade, could you try argue this one on history, limitations, facts and specs before sprouting this ejaculation of Apple-love?

You realize that the A5 in the next Apple TV will be more powerful, GPU wise, than the original Wii, yes? And will be supplemented (possibly) by the GPUs in the paired iPhones?

1. Possibly supplemented And that's without even going into the price of an iPhone.2. Beating the Nintendo wii in 2013 is hardly exciting.3. As yet there is no 3d HDTV capable platform for ios.There is no 3d capable IOS game in development afaik.

Yet add bluetooth and WHAMMOOOO... instant winner

Orange, perhaps time to admit that you hope this will happen, but that there are a lot more of if's need to be passed before this comes to fruition? Or are you sticking with "Bluetooth=winner"?

It's not that Apple would necessarily become the platform leader in the living room like it has in mobile, though that is possible with a console that costs 99 dollars and sells games for 99 cents, but that Micorosft, Sony, and Nintendo will be forced to emulate the App Store model in the living room.

And another one who thinks Angry birds is just as good on a television as Mario Kart. Never mind that the hardware of the Apple TV is hardly ready to do 3d games, something even the lowly Wii pulled of.

Jade, could you try argue this one on history, limitations, facts and specs before sprouting this ejaculation of Apple-love?

Back in the mobile gaming thread when I was talking about Nintendo and Sony whistling past the graveyard, you were going on about AAA titles and the inherent advantages of dedicated gaming handhelds. I believe you were a PSP fan, too. So... how's that Vita thing working out for Sony?

You might want to check that gamer bias and rethink about the hundreds of millions of non-gamers who might be just fine with Angry Birds on an Apple TV.

I'm not asserting that Apple will pull another iPod, or iPhone, or iPad with an Apple TV App Store, just that it could have the biggest impact in the living room in 2013.

Back in the mobile gaming thread when I was talking about Nintendo and Sony whistling past the graveyard, you were going on about AAA titles and the inherent advantages of dedicated gaming handhelds. I believe you were a PSP fan, too. So... how's that Vita thing working out for Sony?

I see you took the effort to check my "allegiance"... except you didn't

Quote:

You might want to check that gamer bias and rethink about the hundreds of millions of non-gamers who might be just fine with Angry Birds on an Apple TV. I'm not asserting that Apple will pull another iPod, or iPhone, or iPad with an Apple TV App Store, just that it could have the biggest impact in the living room in 2013.

I mean, 100's of millions of Angry birds users are just screaming for a port to the TV. It's gonna be AWESOME!

Well you see non-gamers are going to buy an appleTV because it plays games. Ohh and at best it's two generations behind all other game consoles in terms of graphics and doesn't even have novel idea like a motion controller to help sell it

This will do well and greatly impact the living room. You just need to let the unflappable logic of that sink in and percolate a while before you respond.

Perhaps I'm not explaining well, or maybe you are just being purposely obtuse, either way I will try again.

Not much is going to happen in the living room this year because as lookmark first pointed out there is an impasse between content providers, service providers, and device makers. The next generation of consoles will have little impact outside the relatively small audience of console gamers. What could have an impact in the larger market is a really cheap gaming console with really cheap games and apps. That would be the Apple TV.

If that does happen, even if it isn't a huge success, fear of Apple will hopefully force Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony to stop being fucks. Developers might get better access to the platforms as real app stores open up. Game prices might come down some. Maybe Microsoft will stop charging people $50 a year to use the Netflix app on Xbox. Maybe Nintendo will get their shit together regarding tying apps to accounts instead of consoles. Maybe Sony will not shoot themselves in the head on console pricing.

You can underestimate the potential success of Apple in the living room, but it would be myopic to underestimate the fear of Apple among competitors.

I mean, 100's of millions of Angry birds users are just screaming for a port to the TV. It's gonna be AWESOME!

Well you see non-gamers are going to buy an appleTV because it plays games. Ohh and at best it's two generations behind all other game consoles in terms of graphics and doesn't even have novel idea like a motion controller to help sell it

This will do well and greatly impact the living room. You just need to let the unflappable logic of that sink in and percolate a while before you respond.

I guess you missed what happened to the dedicated handheld gaming market starting around 2009, huh? Spoiler Alert: doom.

I mean, 100's of millions of Angry birds users are just screaming for a port to the TV. It's gonna be AWESOME!

Well you see non-gamers are going to buy an appleTV because it plays games. Ohh and at best it's two generations behind all other game consoles in terms of graphics and doesn't even have novel idea like a motion controller to help sell it

It's not two generations behind. The current AppleTV has an A5 SoC, concurrent with the design of the iPad 2 and iPad mini, and capable of running the Unreal Engine 3.

Quote:

This will do well and greatly impact the living room. You just need to let the unflappable logic of that sink in and percolate a while before you respond.

It will do well because it's an HDMI dongle for your iOS device, no more or less. Everything else is a Trojan Horse.

I mean, 100's of millions of Angry birds users are just screaming for a port to the TV. It's gonna be AWESOME!

Well you see non-gamers are going to buy an appleTV because it plays games. Ohh and at best it's two generations behind all other game consoles in terms of graphics and doesn't even have novel idea like a motion controller to help sell it

This will do well and greatly impact the living room. You just need to let the unflappable logic of that sink in and percolate a while before you respond.

I guess you missed what happened to the dedicated handheld gaming market starting around 2009, huh? Spoiler Alert: doom.

You mean when we all started carrying around our living room with us everywhere? Wait, that never happened. But mobile gaming applies here becasue..apple