Oh and whoever explained that the Germans and French are paying for the lowering of the Polish retirement age, I have to say that sounds like a very generous deal. I like the sound of it. How does it work I wonder and can we in the UK also apply?

I don't see why the taxes of this country should be spent trying to make Romania, for example, a better place to live, especially when huge swathes of our industrial heartland is on it's collective arse.

It's not one or the other though. Even allowing for most of our EU spend is spent on us that which builds the market allows us way more in benefits than our costs, frankly it's not even close.

Can't you see the banality of having a political union though? We're giving them money, they take a cut, and give the rest back to us? There isn't any need for a political union when it could all be managed under a trade union.

There are lots of things I'd have liked to change about the EU but not by leaving. If you'd wanted more of a trading union then stay in and lobby for that

The British government has now reached its "Through the Looking Glass" moment where it is simultaneously saying to its own population that in the Transition/Implementation period it will really have already left the EU and be free to do its own thing; whilst telling the rest of the world that no, we are fully in the EU, and all the treaties between all of you and the EU will continue to apply to the UK.

You really couldn't make this stuff up. No wonder the EU have told the May government that sanctions will apply if the UK ignores any part of a transition agreement. From the FT, via the IT:

Quote:

Britain to world: please pretend we are not leaving EUGovernment note calls on non-EU nations to treat UK like a bloc member post-Brexitabout an hour agoJim Brunsden

Britain has a message for the rest of the world after Brexit next year: please pretend we are still in the EU.

A “technical note” prepared by the British government calls on non-EU nations to treat the UK during its post-Brexit transition period after March 2019 as if it was still covered by more than 700 treaties Brussels has struck with third countries on everything from fishing rights to data sharing.

“To coin a phrase, they are going to tell the world that Brexit does not mean Brexit,” said one EU official.

Unless a deal is reached to keep the UK fully covered by such international agreements, Britain risks being bound by the obligations of the treaties during its post-Brexit transition period, without enjoying any of the benefits. The prospect is leading to a scramble in Whitehall to try to find a solution.

The paper published on Thursday represents an about-turn in the UK’s approach to the agreements, which it initially attempted to replicate with UK-only bilateral deals with the relevant countries.

Under the revised British plan, third countries would agree to “interpret relevant terms in the international agreements, such as ‘European Union’ or ‘EU member state’ to include the UK”.

“This approach is underpinned by international law and practice,” the document said, adding that it “represents the simplest way of ensuring the continued application of these agreements” during the post-Brexit transition period, which is set to run until the end of 2020.

Sam Lowe, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said the move marked a U-turn from previous British policy to renegotiate UK-only versions of the deals.

“It is not great for our credibility as a reliable negotiation partner,” he tweeted.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, warned last month that there was no guarantee that the UK would be able to continue benefiting from the agreements once it left the EU. He said that was something in the gift of the 100-plus countries with whom Brussels had negotiated the agreements.

“Our partners around the world may have their own views on this,” he said.

Post-Brexit headachesThe post-Brexit status of the international treaties has turned into one of the biggest headaches for the UK government as it navigates the complexities of its exit talks.

The unique nature of the transition period means Britain will remain bound by its obligations under EU law, including respect of international agreements, while at the same time non-EU countries will be under no pressure to grant Britain the rights it enjoyed as an EU member.

As the agreements are with so many different countries, renegotiating new UK-centric versions of them could be a logistical nightmare, especially as Britain faces restrictions on its rights to negotiate international deals while it remains an EU member.

The UK document emphasises the importance of the agreements to post-Brexit Britain, noting that they “cover a wide range of key policy areas” including “trade, nuclear co-operation and aviation”.

Some of the most vital agreements are those concerning air services. EU bilateral treaties in this field currently underpin the right of British aeroplanes to land in countries such as the US, Canada and Israel.

The British document said the proposal was a reflection of the “unique and time-limited nature” of the transition period, which would be based on “the existing structure of EU rules and regulations”. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2018

The article in the guardian today is interesting. Northern Ireland is not going to be allowed leave the EU. Not sure they foresaw that happening

It's simply the EU putting what the UK agreed to before Christmas into a legally binding format. The DUP reaction will be interesting, especially as the EU consider any British government agreement with the DUP as a purely internal British matter ie. The EU don't give a shit about it.

An EU official involved in the negotiations said the situation in Ireland exposed the “infeasibility” of Brexit on the prime minister’s terms. The source added: “These commitments will come to haunt the British.”

I read something this morning about the Mirror Group buying out the Express. The spokesperson said that there could be economies of scale, like only needing one reporter to go to a football match, but the "identity" of each publication would remain http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42991304

It does bring home the farcical nature of "news" that you could have a single organisation kind of disagreeing with itself on really fundamental issues.

And the poor football reporter....

Mirror copy:

Quote:

Arsenal went ahead just before half time after a cool finish from Mesut Ozil.

Express copy:

Quote:

German immigrant Mesut Ozil rubbed the idea of a European Superstate in Liverpool fans face by scoring a goal just before half time, possibly impacting on local house prices and causing dementia.

When British voters decided in June 2016 to exit the European Union, investors who had anticipated the opposite result stampeded out of sterling and the currency plummeted a record 8.05 percent to a 31-year low. Almost 20 months later, the pound has mostly recovered, providing some satisfaction to commentators who'd predicted that Brexit would prove more distressing to the EU.

QuickTakeBrexit

So much for wishful thinking. In a role reversal not even the most prescient dared to anticipate, Greece is growing faster than the U.K. and outperforming it in financial markets. That's because Greek citizens, who rejected bailout terms from EU creditors in a July 2015 referendum, never embraced a rupture with Europe or the return to a drachma-based economy. Now that Europe is leading the developed world in growth, productivity and job creation after the euro gained 14.2 percent last year — the most among 16 major currencies and the strongest appreciation since 2003 — Greece is the biggest beneficiary and Britain is the new sick man of Europe.

Source: Bloomberg2018 and 2019 figures are projectionsSince the Brexit vote on June 23, 2016, the pound remains the worst-performing currency even after the dollar weakened 12 percent in 2017, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The euro has strengthened 8 percent since then and appreciated more than a dozen of the major currencies. For the countries participating in the EU without using the euro, the outcome is similar since the Brexit vote: Czech korunas gained 16 percent; the Polish zloty, 13 percent; the Hungarian forint, 10 percent and the Danish krone, 8 percent, Bloomberg data show.

The pound is alone in its increasing instability as measured by implied volatility, the metric of investor uncertainty about the U.K. Sterling's fluctuations began exceeding those for the euro in 2016. For the first time since the European currency was created in 1999, the pound has never been so volatile over so many months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It's also unprecedented for the British currency to lose so much confidence in foreign exchange that it resembles the emerging market zloty in daily trading — an ironic footnote to the hostility against Polish immigrants that helped propel Brexit.

In the bond market, Greece is the king of total return (income plus appreciation), handing investors 60 percent since the Brexit vote. U.K. debt securities lost 3 percent, and similar bonds sold by euro zone countries gained 7 percent during the same period, according to the Bloomberg Barclays indexes measured in dollars. Since March 1, 2012, when the crisis of confidence over Greece was at its peak and its debt was trading at 30 cents on the dollar, Greek bonds have returned 429 percent, dwarfing the 19 percent for euro bonds and 10 percent for the U.K., Bloomberg data show.

Winners and Losers Since BrexitTotal return of Greek, euro zone and U.K. government bonds in U.S. dollars

Source: BloombergFor the first time in at least five years, U.K. growth is inferior to the euro zone's, and 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that Europe's superior increase in gross domestic product last year will continue through 2019. The same analysts also forecast that Greece will overtake Britain in GDP growth. They expect Greece to see its GDP rise 2.15 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2019 as the U.K. grows 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent. The euro zone is poised to expand 2.2 percent and 1.8 percent during the next 24 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Equity investors are showing a similar shift in favor of the euro zone among exchange-traded funds. Throughout most of the past 12 months, net flows to Europe surged to the highest since April 2016, mostly at the expense of the U.K., Bloomberg data show. ETF flows to Europe gained 15 percent and 13 percent to the U.K. during the same period. The Global X MSCI Greece ETF, the largest U.S.-based exchange-traded fund investing in Greek companies, is benefiting from a 35 percent increase in net inflows since the 2016 Brexit vote.

Not bad for a country that was thought to be on the brink of collapse just three years ago by luminaries including former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and billionaire investor George Soros. "It's only a matter of time" before Greece defaults and leaves the euro, Greenspan told the British Broadcasting Corp. in February 2015. A month later, Soros told Bloomberg Television that Greece could go "down the drain" because "it's now a lose-lose game."

No one is saying anything like that about the U.K. just yet.

(With assistance from Shin Pei)

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

I voted for Brexit to control our borders so I'm livid at the arrogance of Barnier saying that if we leave we'll have to control our borders.

The cheeky bastard.

Nobody tells us what to do so I demand free movement of people. That will show the fuckers.

I thought we were going to use volunteers for border patrolling? The northern Irish ones can have orange hi vis jackets and fortunately those elderly retirees who voted for Brexit can spend their free time patrolling the UK borders and interrogating people who look like foreigners to save us all from the heathens.

In the bond market, Greece is the king of total return (income plus appreciation), handing investors 60 percent since the Brexit vote. U.K. debt securities lost 3 percent, and similar bonds sold by euro zone countries gained 7 percent during the same period, according to the Bloomberg Barclays indexes measured in dollars. Since March 1, 2012, when the crisis of confidence over Greece was at its peak and its debt was trading at 30 cents on the dollar, Greek bonds have returned 429 percent, dwarfing the 19 percent for euro bonds and 10 percent for the U.K., Bloomberg data show.

In the bond market, Greece is the king of total return (income plus appreciation), handing investors 60 percent since the Brexit vote. U.K. debt securities lost 3 percent, and similar bonds sold by euro zone countries gained 7 percent during the same period, according to the Bloomberg Barclays indexes measured in dollars. Since March 1, 2012, when the crisis of confidence over Greece was at its peak and its debt was trading at 30 cents on the dollar, Greek bonds have returned 429 percent, dwarfing the 19 percent for euro bonds and 10 percent for the U.K., Bloomberg data show.

That's one crazy success metric.

After Brexit you'll have to stop using the word metric. Only Imperial measurements shall be allowed.

In the bond market, Greece is the king of total return (income plus appreciation), handing investors 60 percent since the Brexit vote. U.K. debt securities lost 3 percent, and similar bonds sold by euro zone countries gained 7 percent during the same period, according to the Bloomberg Barclays indexes measured in dollars. Since March 1, 2012, when the crisis of confidence over Greece was at its peak and its debt was trading at 30 cents on the dollar, Greek bonds have returned 429 percent, dwarfing the 19 percent for euro bonds and 10 percent for the U.K., Bloomberg data show.

That's one crazy success metric.

After Brexit you'll have to stop using the word metric. Only Imperial measurements shall be allowed.

Ah leave Bimbo alone. All his recent shorting of sterling has come good, what with it falling off a cliff this afternoon.

In the bond market, Greece is the king of total return (income plus appreciation), handing investors 60 percent since the Brexit vote. U.K. debt securities lost 3 percent, and similar bonds sold by euro zone countries gained 7 percent during the same period, according to the Bloomberg Barclays indexes measured in dollars. Since March 1, 2012, when the crisis of confidence over Greece was at its peak and its debt was trading at 30 cents on the dollar, Greek bonds have returned 429 percent, dwarfing the 19 percent for euro bonds and 10 percent for the U.K., Bloomberg data show.

That's one crazy success metric.

After Brexit you'll have to stop using the word metric. Only Imperial measurements shall be allowed.

Ah leave Bimbo alone. All his recent shorting of sterling has come good, what with it falling off a cliff this afternoon.

No doubt he has the English fizz open already.

Falling off a cliff. ! Indeed, though 1:42 seemed like free USD. I sold into the 1:14 to the Euro too.

Falling off a cliff. ! Indeed, though 1:42 seemed like free USD. I sold into the 1:14 to the Euro too.

Always winning.

That's the Brexit spirit.

About flat , I lost a bundle shorting against Euro last year.

I'm a bit curious about what's going to happen next year and what the potential outcomes might be for the currency values. You must know a lot about this stuff if you're laying money on it. The BoE have hinted yet again of an interest rate rise, a bit more strongly this time as the effect of previous hints was wearing off, but if the UK gets a bespoke EU deal which confounds the experts at the BoE will that cause a crash in sterling when the BoE don't raise interest rates?

Falling off a cliff. ! Indeed, though 1:42 seemed like free USD. I sold into the 1:14 to the Euro too.

Always winning.

That's the Brexit spirit.

About flat , I lost a bundle shorting against Euro last year.

I'm a bit curious about what's going to happen next year and what the potential outcomes might be for the currency values. You must know a lot about this stuff if you're laying money on it. The BoE have hinted yet again of an interest rate rise, a bit more strongly this time as the effect of previous hints was wearing off, but if the UK gets a bespoke EU deal which confounds the experts at the BoE will that cause a crash in sterling when the BoE don't raise interest rates?

I don't know a lot about FX at all, though I starting to understand the sterling rates are a proxy for brexit sentiment and as pointed out a few posts ago causing volatility. I though last year that sterling would go to maybe even flat against the Euro such was the momentum. Two things happened one was the rate rise issue, the other we got over the first stage.

If sterling keeps getting battered at every Barnier comment I can see parity happening again now. The sell into the USD at 1:40 + was a no brainier considering the brexit commentary.

If you note a very smart TSG wasn't anywhere near as aggressive on the short calling 1:08'as his buy back level for sterling.

Falling off a cliff. ! Indeed, though 1:42 seemed like free USD. I sold into the 1:14 to the Euro too.

Always winning.

That's the Brexit spirit.

About flat , I lost a bundle shorting against Euro last year.

I'm a bit curious about what's going to happen next year and what the potential outcomes might be for the currency values. You must know a lot about this stuff if you're laying money on it. The BoE have hinted yet again of an interest rate rise, a bit more strongly this time as the effect of previous hints was wearing off, but if the UK gets a bespoke EU deal which confounds the experts at the BoE will that cause a crash in sterling when the BoE don't raise interest rates?

I don't know a lot about FX at all, though I starting to understand the sterling rates are a proxy for brexit sentiment and as pointed out a few posts ago causing volatility. I though last year that sterling would go to maybe even flat against the Euro such was the momentum. Two things happened one was the rate rise issue, the other we got over the first stage.

If sterling keeps getting battered at every Barnier comment I can see parity happening again now. The sell into the USD at 1:40 + was a no brainier considering the brexit commentary.

If you note a very smart TSG wasn't anywhere near as aggressive on the short calling 1:08'as his buy back level for sterling.

Actually I'd expect the BoE would raise interest rates if the UK gets a bespoke fairyland deal, which prevents any of the 'project fear' shocks.

Oh and whoever explained that the Germans and French are paying for the lowering of the Polish retirement age, I have to say that sounds like a very generous deal. I like the sound of it. How does it work I wonder and can we in the UK also apply?

It's not just the Germans and the French who are paying for it. Any country that is a net contributor is paying for it and that includes the UK until sometime after we leave.

There's a good argument Carneys panic cut last year that hit sterling was part of the issue in addition to brexit ....

If we get a good deal and it's a "known" then rates would be raised because inward investment would go up. (I think).

I'm only watching it over shoot in either direction on the GOod headline / bad headline.

The big fear is of course an election, expect 30-40% to be knocked off sterling in that event.

You trade on currencies without any understanding of the fundamental drivers of their values beyond what you get from headlines in the media?

That's the Brexit mentality in a nutshell.

What do you do with;- labour shortage from no cheap immigrants for low paid but essential jobs.- expensive imports because of tarrifs and red tape.- a run on your currency because your economy is now probably overvalued due to the above.

There's a good argument Carneys panic cut last year that hit sterling was part of the issue in addition to brexit ....

If we get a good deal and it's a "known" then rates would be raised because inward investment would go up. (I think).

I'm only watching it over shoot in either direction on the GOod headline / bad headline.

The big fear is of course an election, expect 30-40% to be knocked off sterling in that event.

You trade on currencies without any understanding of the fundamental drivers of their values beyond what you get from headlines in the media?

That's the Brexit mentality in a nutshell.

What do you do with;- labour shortage from no cheap immigrants for low paid but essential jobs.- expensive imports because of tarrifs and red tape.- a run on your currency because your economy is now probably overvalued due to the above.

Wait for the Daily Mail to tell you which way the wind is blowing?

Oh, I see you weren't looking for a discussion, you were looking for a platform for your views. Well played.

Also the understanding of what position I am taking and why is lacking a bit. But I'm sure hats just gambit on your behalf.

There's a good argument Carneys panic cut last year that hit sterling was part of the issue in addition to brexit ....

If we get a good deal and it's a "known" then rates would be raised because inward investment would go up. (I think).

I'm only watching it over shoot in either direction on the GOod headline / bad headline.

The big fear is of course an election, expect 30-40% to be knocked off sterling in that event.

You trade on currencies without any understanding of the fundamental drivers of their values beyond what you get from headlines in the media?

That's the Brexit mentality in a nutshell.

What do you do with;- labour shortage from no cheap immigrants for low paid but essential jobs.- expensive imports because of tarrifs and red tape.- a run on your currency because your economy is now probably overvalued due to the above.

Wait for the Daily Mail to tell you which way the wind is blowing?

Oh, I see you weren't looking for a discussion, you were looking for a platform for your views. Well played.

Also the understanding of what position I am taking and why is lacking a bit. But I'm sure hats just gambit on your behalf.

You've got a lot to say on the subject so I assume you're coming at it from what you think is an informed position.

Maybe there are some things you could look into a bit more, like the consequences of Brexit decisions on your currency trading for example.