BMI View: The infrastructure and construction sector of Botswana is heading into a strong recovery from previous growth rates below expectations. For 2015, we expect the sector by a stable 5.7% before surpassing the 9% mark in 2016. Crucial for the increase in growth is the energy and power development plans and growing investments in the mining industries.

The sector is set to return to increased growth in 2015, with BMI forecasting year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 5.7%.We believe growth will remain robust over our 10-year forecast period (2014-2023), averaging about 7.8% per year between 2015 and 2024, based on a substantial pipeline of projects. Growth will remain above 9% between 2016 and 2018, before settling around the 9% mark.

The biggest source of value creation is likely to remain electricity and water investments. The country is working hard to reduce its reliance on South Africa for electricity supply and cater to growing domestic demand from its mining sector. There are a number of projects being developed and due to come online over the medium term. These include the long-delayed Morupule B coal-fired plant, which has had its implementation date pushed back several times. International companies are also expanding their business and investing in new mining projects.

In the water sector, severe droughts have left water levels in existing dams low, while ageing pipelines are preventing significant movement of water from areas with more supply. Consequently, water rationing occurs frequently. Investment in dams and pipelines, such as the construction of a 360km plant automation system at a water pipeline and pump station by ABB, are planned.

Key Trends And Developments

The timeframe of the current government's National Development Plan (NDP) 10 has been extended until the end of March 2017. It will be followed by NDP 11, starting April 2017. The reason for the delay is to enable new parliamentarians to participate in drafting NDP 11.

Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure

52

Table: Major Projects - Social Infrastructure & Construction

52

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

55

Botswana - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings

55

Rewards

55

Sub-Saharan Africa - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings

56

Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings

65

Market Overview

66

Competitive Landscape

66

Table: Number Of Contractors In Southern Africa (excluding South Africa)

67

Table: Number Of Contractors In Southern Africa (by region & including South Africa)

67

Pulling On Historic Ties

68

China Trade Off, Other Asian Countries Follow Suit

69

South Africans Expanding Into Their Backyard

72

Global Infrastructure Overview

73

Middle East/North Africa Presents Strongest Investment Profile

73

Methodology

79

Industry Forecast Methodology

79

Sector-Specific Methodology

80

Risk/Reward Rating Methodology

84

Sector-Specific Methodology

85

Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators

85

Table: Weighting Of Indicators

86

The Botswana Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

Key Benefits

Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Botswana to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Botswanan infrastructure market.

Target business opportunities and risks in the Botswanan infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Botswana.

Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’