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Monday, March 21, 2005

- The Form has the Beyers from Saturday, and no surprise, it’s Consolidator with the best fig, a 104. His race is already being downgraded by some because of the strong speed bias at Santa Anita that day, but I think those who would disparage his effort should take a look at him dashing down the Santa Anita stretch after contesting a fast pace before downgrading it too much; it was a truly splendid effort. Nonetheless, give full credit to Don’t Get Mad for his rally against the grain; he deserves another shot, and apparently he and second place finisher Giacomo will get one in the SA Derby, which is looking more and more like it will see Sweet Catomine as the favorite. Wilko came out with another quarter crack but is still possible for the SA Derby or, more likely, the Blue Grass a week later. How about just giving him the time he needs to heal?

Greater Good got a 95, Survivalist a 90, and Sun King only a 91, and one that he had to do a little work for in the stretch, and that after his 104 at Gulfstream. A step back? Or a "useful" race that was part of Nick Zito’s plan? His performance wasn’t overly impressive visually to me, and I was surprised to find him on top of so many people’s top ten lists this morning; I wonder if they'll have second thoughts after seeing his Beyer. As far as Greater Good goes, I’ve heard a lot of people dismissing his race, noting that he caught a tiring Rockport Harbor in a slow race, a contention partly supported by the moderate Beyer. They may be right; as much as I’ve grown to like this horse, the Rebel doesn’t necessarily convince me that he’s top class enough. But out of every present Derby candidate - and I mean every single one including all five of Zito’s.....is there anyone other than Greater Good that you can say with absolute assurance (or as much as is possible in this game) at this stage that he, or she, will be running strong at the finish of the Kentucky Derby? Really, who? Scipion? Sweet Catomine? What do you think?

1 Comment:

throwaway
said...

Well, since you ask: yes on Catomine, no on Scipion. As I've suggested several times elsewhere, I liked Catomine's style in her last, and i feel she might use the same push-button move to go past the leaders and win the Derby. She needs to get the 95 up a bit, but that, in part, was a function of the slow pace up front. Let's see what happens in the SA Derby. Scipion doesn't strike me as being a factor Derby day. I do agree with you, however, re. Greater Good -- he was very professional looking in running down Rockport and he may be a factor Derby day. He too needs to get that 95 up a notch -- we'll see if he can move forward in a few weeks.11