Sunday, January 20, 2008

Sweet glamour puss in your emerald dress. It probably won't happen for you or Atonement this year. But who knows? There's only five names for each category and there's been seven names refusing to fall out of the race in almost every category. It's been a fascinating and rewarding film year but a confounding one for Oscar Predictions. Which is pretty fun if you stop to really consider the point of predicting. If it's too easy, why bother? Just wait for the news.

Usually by this time there is often a clear shortlist in each category with maybe one person or film here or there threatening to "spoil" suddenly ... like say supporting actor this year. That's typically "settled" with one or two upsets-in-waiting if the voters are feeling frisky. But this year: Best Picture itself has but one lock. Crazy. Anything could fall out.

I blame this rather upset-possible lineup on distribution patterns (as I am prone to do) and on the weird fact that it was NOT a year that cried wolf. The December films turned out to be strong. Yet they all got off to such a late start that it's been very difficult to separate manufactured hype from honest to god great buzz.

Read the rest...for final thoughts and predictions and projected nomination tallies

I think your predictions for Pic, Director and all the acting spots are almost exactly the way I have them figured. I'm really glad you included Into the Wild noms... this is the one I am wondering whether the Oscars might snub

Nate & Zee from the Bafta nominations thread: I love you both, everything you guys said was so true.I hope things get better as far as the online community. Maybe MLK day will be a reminder for us all to reflect upon ourselves in hopes of becoming better individuals. Ryan Adams from Awards Daily just posted a great review of AG.

As far as nominations: My Picks for what I think the Academy will go for.

Pic

Atonement-Everyone's counting it out , but Sweeney is more out than this.

Juno=The Little film that could

No Country for Old Men=Lock

There Will Be Blood=Lock

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly=The surprise

Director

Julian Schnabel

Sean Penn

Coen Bros.

P.T. Anderson

Sidney Lumet- I think he may surprise

Actor

George Clooney=WHY :-\Viggo MortensonDaniel Day LewisJohnny Depp=Definitely not his best performance , but I think he'll get inEmile Hirsch- I think he could get in instead of Gosling and James

I think you will regret knocking out Lars for Knocked Up. The latter is EXACTLY the kind of mainstream crowd-pleasing comedy the WGA has nominated and oscar has ignored. And the former is EXACTLY the kind of quirky indie that oscar is predisposed to nominating.

The same thing happened with Apatow's 40 Year Old Virgin and Devil Wears Prada, both shut out. Knocked Up won't get nominated.

A Fincher nod would be interesting, and with Burton , Scott, Lumet, and even Wright suddenly freefalling, it actually seems very possible.

And I think Johnny Depp can sing quite well... I don't think he LET himself sing a lot of the time. But his voice is nice, and he was making an effort, unlike HBC who sustained a note precisely ONCE throughout the whole score, and was flat the whole time. Really pisses me off, too, cause her interpretation was so brilliant whenever she wasn't singing.

leslie; Thanks for the shout out. As you say, we can only live in hope that things will improve.

I just read Ryan Adams review of American Gangster that you cited, and it's utterly, utterly outstanding critical evaluation. The most concise, pinpoint and intelligent dissection of that film that I've seen by anyone to date. He put many more experienced and professional critics to shame with that piece (and that includes those arguing for the film in the affirmative and well as the negative). Anyone still "confused" about why people can find intellectual and cinematic merit in American Gangster, simply need to read Adams' review, and they'll be given a crash course in first-rate critical analysis.

I'm still stuck with costume design - do I chuck out Hairspray, La Vie en Rose or Yuma. Rose is reminding me an awful lot of when A Very Long Engagement was nommed and Hairspray just seems so natural, but it missed the guilds. And 3:10 just feels like it's going to get a nom somewhere but I can't figure out where, exactly.

the ranking is on most confident about the nominations... and sort of winning issues.

i do think that Page has a shot at the win yes. I am rooting for Christie as everyone knows but I still think it's a three way race since Cotillard has Oscar's favorite type of role, Page has all the buzz and a huge campaign, and Christie isn't that much of a schmoozer/campaigner and her film came out a long time ago.

i don't think it's as settled as people think for the win. Though I wish it was.

the other thing worrying me. Helen Mirren won just last year and it had been a really long time since an older woman had one. They like fresh young things in this category more than they like legends.

All of that Cate Blanchett hee-hawing was excessive, but whatever. There are more than enough people who thought that she was great in "The Golden Age" to merit the nomination she'll more than likely get tomorrow. The only nods I'm still on the fence about are Ruby Dee and Philip Seymour Hoffman, and I'm even questioning Johnny Depp making it into lead actor. I hope that "American Gangster" can surprise and get into some major categories, and I'm this close to swapping Emile Hirsch for Denzel Washington, b/c Hirsch is still very young, and voters have shown an young age bias with the men that oddly enough seems to be non-existent for the ladies.

anonymous people won't you please sign off with your own name. it's as simple as typing a few letters before hitting post unless your name is like Mahershalalhashbaz or John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt and even then you can abbreviate...

AtonementInto the WildMichael ClaytonNo Country For Old MenThere Will Be Blood

I know Atonement's state in the race BUT I find it hard to believe that guys from most of the tech categories won't be voting for it in the big category.

Schnabel gets the lone director slot (Wright gets left out).

Juno should be happy with a Best Actress and Screenplay nod. Taking into consideration the Globes track record, Oscar tastes and appeal among all the branches, I think Atonement gets the shaky fifth slot.

My Best Actor line-up is the same, Best Actress -- I'm following the consensus. Blanchett is gonna show up here, sad but true!

I also think Tommy Lee Jones replaces Hoffman and if they do nominate Atonement for Best Pic, Redgrave and Ronan both get in.

One more comment on your noms, As I said earlier, I have the same list as you... but I don't think Ruby Dee should be on the list... Catherine Keene is on mine ( although I did not think she was super ).

Before you ask: yes, I deliberately put at least one out-of-the-left-field choice in most of the categories. It's my first time doing such a complete prediction, and I was trying to, above all else, have fun with it. :)

//Critics: There Will Be Blood. No Country For Blood There Will Be No Country... For Old Men There Will Be Blood For No Blood Men . No Blood Will There Be For Old Country MenMEDIA: JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNOJUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNOJUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNOJUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO JUNO//

Thanks Leslie, unfortunately people just take MLK Day as another day off from work. Halloween is more important.lol.I wasn't sure if Ryan Adams liked it or not, he was very excited ( one of the few)about it before it came out, but now I see that he did.lol

I'm doing NG, No Glory predictions also.

Tang Wei gets in for actress-Haven't seen Lust, Caution yet though.3:10 to Yuma or Hairspray gets in for PictureDavid Fincher gets in for Director=I wish.Christian Bale gets in for Rescue DawnVanessa & Saoirse are both in for Atonement.

Angelina Jolie gets snubbed as well as Michael Clayton

Predictions I kind of want to happen just to piss people off.lol

Keira gets in, instead of Amy Adams oh my.

The Kite Runner gets a nod.

American Gangster or The Great Debaters gets in.

Hairspray gets nominated

Denzel Gets in for either movies.

Nikki Blonsky gets in for Hairspray. I don't think she deserves a nod, but it would make my freaking day

John Travolta gets in for Hairspray.

Belen Rueda( Sp?) gets in for The Orphanage

Into the Wild gets completely Snubbed ( preferably to piss off Ben Lyons from E)

DirectorJoel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old MenPaul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be BloodSean Penn, Into the WildJulian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the ButterflySidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

Some quick (and probably foolish) No Guts, No Glory predictions and a question:

NGNG:-Sweeney Todd shut out of the big 8-Diving Bell get in four of the Big 8 (picture, director, adapted screenplay, supporting actor)-Eastern Promises ends up in three categories: actor, original screenplay and director

Question for people with any understanding of the increasingly nebulous rules surrounding the foreign language category:With Four Months... being knocked out of the foreign language race, would it be eligible in other categories next year if it didn't get any noms this year a la City of God? Would that work more in its favor considering that most people at large won't get to see it until later this year? How does that even work? Does it have to do with its US release date?

[Off-topic:]I'm not trying to start sh*t, James1000 & Nathaniel, but Meryl is pretty great in Music of the Heart  better than Annette in American Beauty and way better than Julianne Moore in The End of the Affair, if you ask me. If Reese or Franka or Kate Winslet or Diane Lane feel sheisty about what happened in '99, and I can see why they would, they can call The Bening or God herself.

My No Guts No Glory predix were Greenwood snubbed (well, he has since been ruled ineligible so I got that one), Eastern Promises for original screenplay over Lars, Devil and Knocked Up and I nearly went with a Tilda snub because she's that high class indie gal type actor that routinely gets snubbed. But, I figure, she has a likely best picture nominee on her side so she can't possibly fall to the wayside like so many others (hi Peter Sarsgaard). Can she?

1. I think this is the year that proves whether or not Cate Blanchett (and Laura Linney) can be branded "default nominees" or not. Cate Blanchett has been nominated before for films that had broad support. I don't think she'd exactly be a default nominee for I'm Not There given the strength of her critical support. It will be interesting. I don't think it'll happen.

2. Nathaniel, I'm serious - I need you to salvage this awards season for me. First the foreign film committee decides to exclude Persepolis and 4 months, 3 weeks, 2 days. Then Johnny Greenwood is ruled ineligible (and it almost feels like they looked for a reason to make it ineligible. Especially since Babel won last year). I didn't watch last year, and I can't imagine I'm going to this year.

3. Nathaniel, I agree on shutting Lars out. If it's gonna score, it would score here, but I doubt it will play well to the oscar voters That said, a Tilda Swinton snub wouldn't surprise me in the least. I'm not convinced Michael Clayton's the type of best picture nominee to sweep someone in on it's coattails (a la Chicago). She could do it, though.

I don't have an account, or can't remember it, but this is the former OscarSights guy. I am totally with you on Linney. Around the same time you did, I started predicting Linney because a.) I think Blanchett = Zhang this year, and b.) 2003 will repeat, and there will be a WTF? Morton nominee who got hardly ANY mentions and gets into the race. To add, after seeing this performance tonight, it definitely deserves the nomination.

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert FordJavier Bardem - No Country for Old MenPhilip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's WarHal Holbrook - Into the WildTom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

Alternate: Tommy Lee Jones - No Country for Old MenSurprise: Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood

I thought Meryl was good in "Music", I have no problems with her in the movie. I just felt that year there were lots of other deserving pics. I loves me some Mary Louise Streep (her real name) don't get me wrong. That was the only undeserved nom from her at least for me.

That said, and off subject if Tilda Swinton gets nominated in Supporting Actress for Michael Clayton she could very well pull off the upset.

Word to that, James. I wasn't really picking at you. (Nathaniel knows I was picking at him, going after his twin goddesses of actressexuality and all.) I have seen Music of the Heart an unreasonable number of times (compared to what I believe are the zero times that Someone has seen it), and I'm obviously guilty-defensive about how I always. cry. And it really is my favorite of Meryl's regular-gal performances, which I wish more people who find her too lofty or mechanical would seek out. (I actually wish Meryl herself had watched it before she filmed Rendition: loosen it up, girl!)