Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Fantasy Sports Grinding: The Wheat Thin Example

So there's a new Condia interview out, where he claims to have put his "entire life savings" on the line in weeks 1 & 2 of NFL. I don't buy it for one second. He was crushed in week 2, so that would have completely crippled his bankroll for the rest of the season.

I'm not trying to take away anything from Condia, he is an excellent fantasy player. The point I'm trying to make is that the industry will always promote the biggest rake generators over the players with superior ROI.

This is why the RG rankings are so flawed. They discount multiple tourney cashes, while crediting every HU cash. When I put seven top 20 finishes in a 2500+ player tourney, only one of my cashes count towards the rankings. (I only entered 24 times, less than 1% of the total entries.)

Both RG and the contest sites have a specific reason for promoting the biggest rake generators: It makes them more money. They want you to shoot for the leader board, because you will spend more of your money to get there.

Let me give you a real world example of the same concepts. Wheat Thins.

In terms of Wheat Thins, Condia is the person who buys the most Wheat Thins in the land. The maker of Wheat Thins notices this and decides to use him to promote their product. They might feature him in a commercial or give him some award for consuming the most Wheat Thins.

"Look how great Wheat Thins are! He spends so much on them, they must be awesome!"

However, a good ROI player is the person who spends the least per box of Wheat Thins. He might not have as many Wheat Thins, but he will never need the huge bankroll to buy the amount desired.

There is absolutely no incentive for the maker of Wheat Thins to acknowledge or promote this person. They want you to spend more!

Regardless of what RG or any contest site says, they do not want to help you maximize profits. They want you to spend... In order to achieve some ranking that has no monetary reward.

Those badges & freerolls don't usually end up on your 1099, unless you win. And that's a BIG if.