2010-09-09 16:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day2010-09-09 16:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?2010-09-09 16:00:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thank you.2010-09-09 16:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like someone had a pretty good day today 2010-09-09 16:01:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: "not bad"2010-09-09 16:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2010-09-09 16:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??2010-09-09 16:02:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: watching breadth today was very leading-nice2010-09-09 16:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which way?2010-09-09 16:03:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when it started to drop2010-09-09 16:03:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: breadth fell apart first2010-09-09 16:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1892/11532010-09-09 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "not bad"2010-09-09 16:03:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: started out over 4 to 12010-09-09 16:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ugh2010-09-09 16:03:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: went even2010-09-09 16:03:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: then the finish2010-09-09 16:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we are "overbought" here2010-09-09 16:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow2010-09-09 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a day2010-09-09 16:04:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure was2010-09-09 16:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...it looks like everyone is here2010-09-09 16:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder...there won't be a chat on Tuesday2010-09-09 16:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will make it up next Friday...so Thursday and Friday next week2010-09-09 16:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...2010-09-09 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean that you can't get together on Tuesday to discuss things2010-09-09 16:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have access to do so2010-09-09 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you do...I won't be able to post the transcripts until Thursday2010-09-09 16:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that out of the way...let me get DP up and we'll get started2010-09-09 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to struggle higher today2010-09-09 16:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but didn't quite give us bearish divergence 2010-09-09 16:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did fulfill the near term expectation of having the CO NYSE breadth MCO 5% component bounce off its zero lines in the last couple of days2010-09-09 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 10% only bounced in "free flight"2010-09-09 16:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the charts in anticipation of next week2010-09-09 16:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further upside progress in the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM from here will find further resistance at the little hesitation point seen just below the zero line from last month2010-09-09 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also satisfy any further attempt to snapback to the zero line itself2010-09-09 16:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that being said2010-09-09 16:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are currently at a reading of -2332010-09-09 16:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the -250 level is still in play as a possible resistance point2010-09-09 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further upward progress on Friday, however, would then open the door to a zero line test early next week2010-09-09 16:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO has also struggled higher over the last couple of days as well2010-09-09 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has allowed the NYSE breadth MCSUM to move back up to the +459 level...close enough for a snapback to the +500 level in which we discussed on Tuesday as one possible target for this week2010-09-09 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the underlying components of this MCO remain buoyant in all of this2010-09-09 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not a good idea to be looking for a short here unless we get some technical breakdown of some kind on Friday 2010-09-09 16:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this would be in preparation for next week for any follow through2010-09-09 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so tomorrow becomes an important day for both the bulls and the bears for (likely) the rest of the month2010-09-09 16:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NYSE breadth MCSUM +500 level is breached...we play the better odds of continued rally2010-09-09 16:17:25 [Message] doc -> Chat: +500 to +550 is the gap resistance2010-09-09 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (although it might be sluggish in character because of the lack of up volume conviction)2010-09-09 16:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good to note - thanks Doc2010-09-09 16:18:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: composite hasn't entered the gap R while the common is 2/3 of the way through it2010-09-09 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then what would be nice to see 2010-09-09 16:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be a rally primarily in the interest rate sensitive issues on Friday while the commons lag2010-09-09 16:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be a defensive play 2010-09-09 16:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and allow both MCSUM's to remain in sync2010-09-09 16:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the advantages for the shorts right now2010-09-09 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that until we see a gap lower on the MCSUM2010-09-09 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no reason to short2010-09-09 16:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the tide would overwhelm such a prospect2010-09-09 16:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we play the odds until the odds reverse2010-09-09 16:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said2010-09-09 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a general hard sell off in the PM stocks today2010-09-09 16:20:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: Your comments above don't make sense to me2010-09-09 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tends to lead to some sort follow through action with equities within a day or so2010-09-09 16:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't be surprising since I'm a bit scattered2010-09-09 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which one?2010-09-09 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (and I will slow down...)2010-09-09 16:21:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: just read from "one of the advantages for the shorts...2010-09-09 16:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes2010-09-09 16:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the shorts2010-09-09 16:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are itching to short2010-09-09 16:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no reason to until you see the MCSUM reverse2010-09-09 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to stay in cash and be patient2010-09-09 16:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM's continue to rise, this shows us that money is moving in2010-09-09 16:22:30 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay, so not an advantage for the shorts, so to speak2010-09-09 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and something like this...2010-09-09 16:22:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: advantage for the bulls2010-09-09 16:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it is an advantage for the shorts in that you don't have to throw you money at the market in anticipation that prices are going to move lower near term2010-09-09 16:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always an advantage 2010-09-09 16:23:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: is it Doc- What is your target here?2010-09-09 16:24:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: target? I was just trying to understand the advantage for the shorts--now I understand that the advantage is not to be short yet2010-09-09 16:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I put it this format because I KNOW there are certain readers here who are looking for an opportunity to short2010-09-09 16:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I probably could had framed it differently2010-09-09 16:24:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm with you now.2010-09-09 16:24:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, I would be uncomfortable long-unless I had a target I was heading to2010-09-09 16:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line here2010-09-09 16:25:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: No downside targets2010-09-09 16:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we deal with probability and outcome2010-09-09 16:25:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: Upside met for the 2.5wk cycle and way exceeded2010-09-09 16:25:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not true-downside has been provided2010-09-09 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...you could continue to find an entry point 2010-09-09 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until the flow of money agrees with your assessment2010-09-09 16:25:40 [Message] doc -> Chat: Upside target 1140 in play later this month, all from Hurst point of view2010-09-09 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to stand aside than to have the odds working against you2010-09-09 16:25:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks Doc, that's what I need to see2010-09-09 16:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as 1140 as concerned2010-09-09 16:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless money flow starts to pick up steam here2010-09-09 16:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not going to make it2010-09-09 16:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe back up to 11252010-09-09 16:27:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: There's been a lot of that lately, lol2010-09-09 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even that is dicey right now2010-09-09 16:27:29 [Message] doc -> Chat: My downside was undershot too.2010-09-09 16:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the charts are telling us here is simple2010-09-09 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market wants to go higher2010-09-09 16:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance for money is higher2010-09-09 16:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we get enough volume to push us higher...we're going to hesitate and chop2010-09-09 16:28:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: That will come next week2010-09-09 16:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is getting squeezed here2010-09-09 16:28:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: expiration week2010-09-09 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...that would be fine2010-09-09 16:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah...OK...2010-09-09 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quadruple OPEX2010-09-09 16:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...that's only Thursday and Friday...and more of churn2010-09-09 16:29:19 [Message] doc -> Chat: we'll get the volume next week and Hurst wise it might be down and the up2010-09-09 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...when I talk about volume2010-09-09 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not talking daily numbers2010-09-09 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm talking plurality2010-09-09 16:29:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: and then up2010-09-09 16:29:46 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay2010-09-09 16:30:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: BTW2010-09-09 16:30:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: before we leave the NY data2010-09-09 16:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/nyud090910.png2010-09-09 16:30:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: important to point out that NYAD made a new high today2010-09-09 16:31:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: largest mutual fund withdrawel level so far this year last week. while we rallied-the big move didn't seem to attract buyers2010-09-09 16:31:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: Spooky, Hurst 2.5wk low due next Tues-Wed, throttle up after that, unless...2010-09-09 16:33:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Thanks Doc, I'm quite curious where the market will be sitting by next Wedns.2010-09-09 16:37:22 [Message] doc -> Chat: http://tinyurl.com/388hx822010-09-09 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get the NYUD in a better and proper configuration2010-09-09 16:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the market has to work with is air2010-09-09 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: period2010-09-09 16:38:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: looking at the chart you posted Doc, it looks like the SPX rolls over pretty quickly after that makes a new high?2010-09-09 16:40:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: Spooky, I have nothing to suggest down from here other than what Fib has been discussing in the last chat2010-09-09 16:40:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: But, it did in EVERY instance on your chart-just saying2010-09-09 16:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's move on2010-09-09 16:40:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: Heck, we have only upward potential Hurst wise, till the 80wk cycle rolls over and NO ONE can predict when that will be2010-09-09 16:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 40 weeks?2010-09-09 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (being cheeky)2010-09-09 16:41:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: Likely less2010-09-09 16:41:29 [Message] doc -> Chat: Should be left translated2010-09-09 16:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the NASDAQ breadth MCO2010-09-09 16:41:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: It is the 6th of 6 in 9 year cycle2010-09-09 16:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the components2010-09-09 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we did indeed get our bounce off the zero line on the 10% component2010-09-09 16:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and repelled from the zero line on the 5%2010-09-09 16:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...we haven't moved to new highs yet on the 10%, and have once again snapped back to the zero line with the 5%2010-09-09 16:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls need follow through here fairly quickly, or a hard reversal will occur2010-09-09 16:43:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: Any points on the NYAD making new highs here or is this a non-event for you here?2010-09-09 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the NYUD gets its act together, it's just a milestone for now2010-09-09 16:44:06 [Message] doc -> Chat: Thanks2010-09-09 16:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: liquidity is NOT the problem2010-09-09 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how its being USED is the problem2010-09-09 16:44:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: While on the NASDAQ, 2010-09-09 16:44:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: NAUD climbed above its 200 ema2010-09-09 16:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not quite2010-09-09 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doc...I just don't like what I'm seeing here2010-09-09 16:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I hope I'm wrong2010-09-09 16:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the excuses of August and the holiday is behind us now2010-09-09 16:46:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: I understand and believe me I appreciate you sounding the alarm, but2010-09-09 16:46:30 [Message] doc -> Chat: I would like to fully understand why2010-09-09 16:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is very indecisive here2010-09-09 16:46:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: so that this can be a learning experience for the future2010-09-09 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK2010-09-09 16:47:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: for all of us2010-09-09 16:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take the issue of the breadth thrust we talked about on Tuesday2010-09-09 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything "technical" is an observation2010-09-09 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these observations are (or tend to be) repetitive in their nature2010-09-09 16:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what has happened in the past2010-09-09 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those resolutions have a character in which we look for in order to forecast what might happen again2010-09-09 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a breadth thrust2010-09-09 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market doesn't show any kind of hesitation to its structure2010-09-09 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume plurality also confirms what the thrust implies2010-09-09 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is like getting a Ferrari filled with fuel, but it doesn't go anywhere near what it should be able to do on the highway2010-09-09 16:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sputters2010-09-09 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the timing is off2010-09-09 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you might reach an objective2010-09-09 16:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but its going to be an effort to do so2010-09-09 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you will tend to lose combustion right in the middle of putting your foot down on the accelerator pedal2010-09-09 16:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like today2010-09-09 16:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth and volume MUST work together to give the desired results2010-09-09 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one can not move a market without the other2010-09-09 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...if this changes...fantastic2010-09-09 16:52:12 [Message] doc -> Chat: For volume to confirm2010-09-09 16:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until it does2010-09-09 16:52:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: are you looking at NYUD vs its EMAs2010-09-09 16:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes2010-09-09 16:52:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: or at the volume MCO or MCSUM?2010-09-09 16:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not worried about a trend here2010-09-09 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either short term or intermediate term2010-09-09 16:52:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cash is somewhat refuting futures, as well-not a good sign2010-09-09 16:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get a proper configuration...we're going to spin our collective wheels2010-09-09 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a look at the NASDAQ price pattern from the June highs to the July lows2010-09-09 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you extend a line to the right 2010-09-09 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see our triangle2010-09-09 16:54:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: So the July rally started with NYUD deep in the hole, and it was a tradable rally till it failed2010-09-09 16:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the July low was the bottom of a triangle2010-09-09 16:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...usually...does not get tested as the price pattern will tend to move with a sideways motion2010-09-09 16:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher bottoms 2010-09-09 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower tops2010-09-09 16:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pattern is harder to see with the NYA2010-09-09 16:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the indecisive nature of the pattern itself is recognizable2010-09-09 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a simple trading range2010-09-09 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this range will NOT move either above or below its limitations until volume plurality overwhelms the other side2010-09-09 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now2010-09-09 16:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth suggests that eventually the breakout will be to the upside2010-09-09 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we get volume, as measured by the UD to co-operate with this notion2010-09-09 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens is a larger consolidation with - in this case with the AD moving higher - a bullish bias...a bottom above a bottom2010-09-09 16:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (I hate indecision patterns)2010-09-09 16:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...I don't really know if I answered your question or not2010-09-09 16:58:41 [Message] doc -> Chat: For fun, there is a down trendline from the April highs touching the June highs that the July rally broke up above and the August swoon came back to test from the top and now we are moving up2010-09-09 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm not trying to be vague either2010-09-09 16:58:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: unfortunately, the top in 2007 triangle looks much the same2010-09-09 16:59:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: and today tested the DTL using the Aug tops2010-09-09 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would consistent to the NYAD moving higher (breaking the downtrend) but not being able to add to the breakout (because of the lack of volume)2010-09-09 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look...I may be very wrong here2010-09-09 17:00:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: it has nothing to do with right or wrong2010-09-09 17:00:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: purely academic here2010-09-09 17:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't see anything telling me that we're going to be able to promote an advancing price structure at this current time2010-09-09 17:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can change tomorrow2010-09-09 17:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I'm asking for is for up volume to help the structure along2010-09-09 17:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I'm asking for is constructive evidence that a uptrend can actually occur2010-09-09 17:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't see that as yet2010-09-09 17:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I see...and feel...is a market struggling to make a move2010-09-09 17:01:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well maybe that's the difference between the bottom and the POR2010-09-09 17:02:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: Hard to get volume plurality early on when the sentiment was way way bearish2010-09-09 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't agree with that2010-09-09 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of the great rally's of the last several decades all took place with massive short covering as their start2010-09-09 17:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't see follow through2010-09-09 17:02:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we may well be in a running triangle Fib-I considered same today-but, it can easily be read as we just hit "E", as well2010-09-09 17:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day...OK...but if this is a true breadth thrust2010-09-09 17:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would have been able to hold today's breadth plurality numbers2010-09-09 17:03:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: it was a positive day2010-09-09 17:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: E up...which would mean a final sell off into a low2010-09-09 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be2010-09-09 17:03:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes2010-09-09 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like Lew said in the beginning2010-09-09 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth was 4:1 to the good...pulled even...and then closed with 700 net advancers2010-09-09 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the whole thing smacks of a triangle2010-09-09 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the flash crash2010-09-09 17:04:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm fine with a sell off for a couple of days to next Tues-Wed and it could be a hard sell off, but I don't see lower lows in price2010-09-09 17:04:58 [Message] tracca -> Chat: E?2010-09-09 17:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly probable that this kind of pattern would occur as traders take their time to determine what we might see in the future2010-09-09 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...an E2010-09-09 17:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott Triangles are A-B-C-D-E affairs2010-09-09 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: A would be the June highs2010-09-09 17:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: B would be the July lows2010-09-09 17:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: C would be the August highs2010-09-09 17:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: D would be the lows at the end of August2010-09-09 17:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now in E2010-09-09 17:06:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes,it's pretty clean and clear, to me2010-09-09 17:06:30 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Thank you2010-09-09 17:06:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: Didn't you say in the June "fake" breadth thrust that you usually look for at least 10 days of positive NYMO as a criteria roughly? So far we have 5 days. 2010-09-09 17:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the pattern would be fully consistent to the breadth/volume discussion2010-09-09 17:07:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: You were absolutely right on in predicting a rally failure2010-09-09 17:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might be confused between a breadth thrust and a buy spike?2010-09-09 17:07:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: could be2010-09-09 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I stand by this being a failure waiting to happen here as well2010-09-09 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that bad feeling I was getting in August?2010-09-09 17:07:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto, fwiw2010-09-09 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm getting it again2010-09-09 17:08:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay I hear you2010-09-09 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know me well enough2010-09-09 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I give you as much unbiased analysis as I can2010-09-09 17:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I said last week...I was rooting for Lew to be right for a decline2010-09-09 17:08:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay, much appreciated2010-09-09 17:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'll root for you as well2010-09-09 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market is saying otherwise2010-09-09 17:09:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Lew learned his lesson lol2010-09-09 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just try to let the information given guide me...and hopefully it agrees with your analysis2010-09-09 17:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it doesn't 2010-09-09 17:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can be wrong as the next guy2010-09-09 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I might not be seeing something you might be2010-09-09 17:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's why we have the chat 2010-09-09 17:10:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: Truth be told, I'm mostly neutral now looking/hoping for down to buy into2010-09-09 17:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm no better than anyone here2010-09-09 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can be wrong2010-09-09 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just wait for Vegas...OK?2010-09-09 17:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2010-09-09 17:10:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: Have to be careful what I wish for, huh?2010-09-09 17:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look...the idea here is to have a discussion2010-09-09 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I try to provide specific reasons why the market can or can not do this or that2010-09-09 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm never wishy washy2010-09-09 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless...2010-09-09 17:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is2010-09-09 17:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is one of those times in which it is2010-09-09 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's indecisive2010-09-09 17:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has been since May2010-09-09 17:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once clarity is known...we're going to make day to day calls that much more ease2010-09-09 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until then...there's going to be differing opinions2010-09-09 17:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "indecision"2010-09-09 17:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing that we can take from all of this though2010-09-09 17:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that once this indecision is finished2010-09-09 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the NYAD line2010-09-09 17:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to have a big rally here2010-09-09 17:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I mean big2010-09-09 17:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because2010-09-09 17:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the NYUD is compressing2010-09-09 17:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continues to do so2010-09-09 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the spring is sprung2010-09-09 17:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the move is going to be..."breadth taking"2010-09-09 17:13:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oddly, I'm with Don there-wave 3 up2010-09-09 17:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be2010-09-09 17:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've been talking about this in the chat since 2004 and before that2010-09-09 17:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 2003 war lows were significant in this idea2010-09-09 17:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you remember2010-09-09 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the very existence of the US was being called into question2010-09-09 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what if Iraq used their warfare on our troops and we lost?2010-09-09 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a lot of angst at that time (in which many forget about)2010-09-09 17:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so...it was as high as it was in the early 1930's2010-09-09 17:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here again...2010-09-09 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the political climate is being....2010-09-09 17:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmmm2010-09-09 17:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trying to think of a proper word here2010-09-09 17:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the political climate is giving the birth to a new party2010-09-09 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would consistent to the idea of whether the US...in its current content...will continue or not?2010-09-09 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 2's are famous for these kinds of emotions2010-09-09 17:17:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but I only saw it now, I consider the Secular bear dead last March-Dons seen it plenty-but I think this time-he gets it-everything finally looks lined up2010-09-09 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...a clock is right twice a day2010-09-09 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I respect everyone when it comes to their specialties2010-09-09 17:17:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: he'll be unbelievable lol2010-09-09 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've been saying that about Don since 19872010-09-09 17:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol2010-09-09 17:18:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: One more question on volume plurality and NYUD, since it is a gradient from bad to good, at what point would you feel more comfortable that volume is confirming breadth? NYUD above 200ema, or do you need the 5 and 10% trends to be dragged all the way above the 1% trend as well into a full bullish config?2010-09-09 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want three things to happen...and in this order2010-09-09 17:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want a bottom above a bottom2010-09-09 17:18:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: check2010-09-09 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want the line itself to move above the 200 day EMA 2010-09-09 17:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then I want a bullish configuration2010-09-09 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can get that to happen2010-09-09 17:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once it does2010-09-09 17:19:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: We have the bottom above bottom2010-09-09 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small one, yes2010-09-09 17:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want one that screams at you if you look at the data on a monthly basis2010-09-09 17:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not of this taking a microscope to the pattern2010-09-09 17:20:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: I was referring to July vs Aug bottoms2010-09-09 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just doesn't happen that way2010-09-09 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a start2010-09-09 17:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm good with it2010-09-09 17:20:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: for what I'm looking for upmove wise, I want more texture, and complexity2010-09-09 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bullish configuration would be easy and quick to do as well2010-09-09 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes....texture...complexity2010-09-09 17:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of this is foundational work2010-09-09 17:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to "climb a wall"2010-09-09 17:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like in rock climbing2010-09-09 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you need to be able to have a foot hold for both feet2010-09-09 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one leg won't do the job2010-09-09 17:21:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, for a huge building-you need a great foundation2010-09-09 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...2010-09-09 17:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we just don't have that2010-09-09 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe another month or so2010-09-09 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not quite yet2010-09-09 17:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take a little more time2010-09-09 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would not at all be surprised if we don't see this happen until sometime after the elections2010-09-09 17:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however2010-09-09 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the triangle pattern in the NASDAQ says it will be sooner than that2010-09-09 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the triangle pattern might also be something cyclical as well2010-09-09 17:23:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: As I mentioned last chat, if we do get a sudden swoon, it could come in the way of a default of a major bank or country in Europe or the heightened threat of one. In that regard, I have been watching today a SOB pattern for the EUR on the HOURLY chart that is very close to being triggered. Just FYI2010-09-09 17:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the once a larger time cycle does bottom...it will cause prices to move up and away from this consolidation instead of moving down and into the nesting2010-09-09 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting that you mention that doc2010-09-09 17:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because2010-09-09 17:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with E waves in Elliott2010-09-09 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thrust out of the triangle is almost always news related2010-09-09 17:24:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: A Clintonesque midterm like political situation looks great for the market, to me2010-09-09 17:24:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: It almost trigger at the close of the hour as we've been chatting2010-09-09 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...a 1994 repeat is very possible2010-09-09 17:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know what happened after that2010-09-09 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have Tom McClellan's Presidential Cycle2010-09-09 17:25:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: And Doc, the dollar looks like a C up of a 2 here-the A up cost the market 90 SPX points-day for day2010-09-09 17:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which shows that the 3rd year of a Presidential term is always the strongest for the stock market2010-09-09 17:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else you wish to touch upon here...or should I go on?2010-09-09 17:26:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a 3 up in the market goes quite well with a 3 down in the dollar-it all fits2010-09-09 17:26:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good exporting, etc.2010-09-09 17:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please...please...please be careful with this Dollar market comparisons2010-09-09 17:27:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/ Check out the hourly Eur cross2010-09-09 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or you might wind up like the gold traders2010-09-09 17:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm moving on2010-09-09 17:27:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes lets2010-09-09 17:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM is now back to its zero line2010-09-09 17:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with pattern resistance just below the +250 level2010-09-09 17:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NDX breadth MCO can move to higher highs near term2010-09-09 17:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then this would allow the MCSUM to attain this target2010-09-09 17:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor2010-09-09 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we find that price pattern reversed at resistance in the NDX at the declining tops line today2010-09-09 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things like this re-enforce the significance of such a line2010-09-09 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will only be able to break above this line of resistance if the NDX breadth MCO can move to higher highs2010-09-09 17:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then push the MCSUM above the zero line2010-09-09 17:30:40 [Message] doc -> Chat: 1900 is also a very significant horizontal line2010-09-09 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a great example of how "everything needs to work together" to accomplish a goal2010-09-09 17:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without this kind of breadth push2010-09-09 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly unlikely that we're not going to move to much higher here2010-09-09 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: horizontal resistance on the SPX price pattern remains at 11252010-09-09 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the lower boundary still at 10502010-09-09 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least one things for sure2010-09-09 17:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is very orderly here if we stand back a little for a wider view2010-09-09 17:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has been our mantra for several weeks now2010-09-09 17:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the Three Bears2010-09-09 17:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not really ready to rally2010-09-09 17:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's not really ready to decline2010-09-09 17:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is not trend except sideways (just right)2010-09-09 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if things change2010-09-09 17:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great2010-09-09 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whichever way...great2010-09-09 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact2010-09-09 17:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing you will start to notice2010-09-09 17:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you haven't already2010-09-09 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that everyone is quick to jump ship2010-09-09 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bears to bulls2010-09-09 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bulls to bears2010-09-09 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and decorum becomes rough2010-09-09 17:34:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: man, they sure are2010-09-09 17:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as traders we want clarity2010-09-09 17:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what happens2010-09-09 17:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially on message boards2010-09-09 17:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that everyone wants to be the first one to be right2010-09-09 17:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when they're not2010-09-09 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the battles begin2010-09-09 17:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...this is just something to look for sentiment wise2010-09-09 17:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it gives us clarity as to what we should be looking for(or not)2010-09-09 17:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO did move to higher highs today2010-09-09 17:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the price pattern closed above its mid August hesitation point2010-09-09 17:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a good thing if you're a bull2010-09-09 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would be better if you see something like this happen as broadly as possible2010-09-09 17:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...it's only the top 100 stocks2010-09-09 17:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we have chatted about many times in the past2010-09-09 17:38:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: The downtrend line for the McSum intersects at the zero line2010-09-09 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not always a good thing if the "higher ups" are seeing all the attention2010-09-09 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup2010-09-09 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the beauty there, of course2010-09-09 17:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the market MUST make a major move to violate these same lines of support and resistance2010-09-09 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the market leaves no doubt as to its intentions2010-09-09 17:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...2010-09-09 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls could be right tomorrow2010-09-09 17:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or2010-09-09 17:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears could once again say..."I told you so!"2010-09-09 17:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: indecision2010-09-09 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not worth playing the trade 2010-09-09 17:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to wait for confirmation2010-09-09 17:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all2010-09-09 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we get confirmation2010-09-09 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are so wound up here 2010-09-09 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it's going to take some time for us to unwind2010-09-09 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then there's fake outs 2010-09-09 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we won't get into that2010-09-09 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO did NOT move above its previous highs today2010-09-09 17:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's not a good thing 2010-09-09 17:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the OEX did2010-09-09 17:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and BTW 2010-09-09 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can throw out the idea of a MCSUM fishhook here2010-09-09 17:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however2010-09-09 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't want to see what might happen with several MCSUM's now snapping back to their zero lines and failing to build on this2010-09-09 17:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't like it...2010-09-09 17:42:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: The components made higher highs2010-09-09 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're missing character here2010-09-09 17:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...2010-09-09 17:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they did2010-09-09 17:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should respect that for what it may imply2010-09-09 17:43:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: that the mco is likely to follow2010-09-09 17:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the MID breadth MCO2010-09-09 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it continues to struggle higher2010-09-09 17:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Doc...I just don't like the way the market is struggling here2010-09-09 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't have the MID leading2010-09-09 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the SML2010-09-09 17:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which gave a small point change today as well2010-09-09 17:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...the secondaries and MID and SML stocks are compressed here2010-09-09 17:45:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: Interestingly, the mid is leading2010-09-09 17:45:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: "struggle" is a good phrase, and key to me here-it shouldn't be struggling2010-09-09 17:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe they'll follow the brass?2010-09-09 17:45:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: It is one of the strongest indexes this year2010-09-09 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID is leading what?2010-09-09 17:45:31 [Message] doc -> Chat: It is up for the year2010-09-09 17:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...2010-09-09 17:45:46 [Message] doc -> Chat: Most are down2010-09-09 17:45:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: It didn't fall as much2010-09-09 17:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't mean much if there's nothing really supporting the price structure in the here and now2010-09-09 17:46:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: so it is waiting for the rest of the laggards to catch up2010-09-09 17:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the year...that's 9 months ago2010-09-09 17:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...like I said to Lew...good luck2010-09-09 17:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just don't see anything really worthy of a breakout here2010-09-09 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news is2010-09-09 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're getting closer - day by day - to some sort of resolution2010-09-09 17:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just wouldn't lead off here2010-09-09 17:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would rather miss out on a 500 point Dow day and then climb on board than being on the wrong end of such a day2010-09-09 17:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much indecision right now2010-09-09 17:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then there's the axiom2010-09-09 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "never short a dull market"2010-09-09 17:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quickly looking at the McClellan Volume charts2010-09-09 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Oh...before I do2010-09-09 17:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the total market breadth MCO2010-09-09 17:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...there's enough evidence here that we "might" see a dramatic move in major market averages in the next two trading days2010-09-09 17:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth says higher2010-09-09 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume oscillators say down or "I don't know"2010-09-09 17:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many questions2010-09-09 17:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I had to make a good guess2010-09-09 17:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would base the next move on the direction of the PM stocks2010-09-09 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today..they were down hard2010-09-09 17:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that gold is consolidating if not pulling back2010-09-09 17:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case2010-09-09 17:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then stocks are likely to do so as well2010-09-09 17:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's been the character for a couple of months now2010-09-09 17:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see2010-09-09 17:52:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: equity PC and ISEE amped up here-I doubt they get paid Big contract players very short, as well2010-09-09 17:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ volume MCO2010-09-09 17:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the structure there is looking good2010-09-09 17:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a nice series of bottoms above bottoms in place2010-09-09 17:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...there's one thing that's consistent here2010-09-09 17:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ALL of the volume MCSUM's are below their zero lines right now2010-09-09 17:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the same time2010-09-09 17:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are all near their zero lines2010-09-09 17:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...we are setting up for something very big2010-09-09 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice to see the uniformity there2010-09-09 17:54:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep2010-09-09 17:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing I will stress here is this2010-09-09 17:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have more problems right now than the bulls do2010-09-09 17:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words2010-09-09 17:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more likely that we're going to see higher highs than lower lows once this indecision is complete2010-09-09 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that I have no problems with2010-09-09 17:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just the short term that's a problem...debatable2010-09-09 17:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for those who do play the short side here on any breakdown2010-09-09 17:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continue to be very nimble here2010-09-09 17:56:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: large players 3 to 1 short here, has note boded well in history2010-09-09 17:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't see much downside here...maybe the July lows..but that's about it2010-09-09 17:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're in an indecision pattern too2010-09-09 17:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: large and small players can be wrong2010-09-09 17:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: large players just have more zeros to their trades2010-09-09 17:57:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, just value taking the odds, myself2010-09-09 17:57:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: Don't you think that we'd have trouble getting below the ISM gap up? I think that was the initiation move and caught a lot of bears trapped?2010-09-09 17:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are highly "overbought"2010-09-09 17:57:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they have a history of being right at those levels2010-09-09 17:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in triangles...reversal gaps always appear because of the quickness to be right2010-09-09 17:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a conditioning thing2010-09-09 17:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you get hurt...and you don't want to get hurt again2010-09-09 17:58:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: very true2010-09-09 17:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you cinch up your stops2010-09-09 17:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN At .752010-09-09 17:59:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: Interestingly on the STVO's, this level of overbought has typically led to one big down day followed by higher highs the past year, except the June false rally2010-09-09 17:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .862010-09-09 17:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting really close here to being "overbought"2010-09-09 18:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind in any comparisons here that we are in a large indecision pattern2010-09-09 18:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there are going to be fake outs2010-09-09 18:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it MUST all work together2010-09-09 18:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are not in sync here between breadth and volume2010-09-09 18:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would like to be2010-09-09 18:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're not2010-09-09 18:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .772010-09-09 18:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .802010-09-09 18:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being at .77 yesterday2010-09-09 18:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"2010-09-09 18:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at what could be the end of an Elliott E wave as well2010-09-09 18:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very consistent2010-09-09 18:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .812010-09-09 18:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .842010-09-09 18:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure2010-09-09 18:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't want to be long here2010-09-09 18:02:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no2010-09-09 18:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a good buy point for longer term traders2010-09-09 18:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's likely to be a better time to buy (accumulate)2010-09-09 18:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the hardest thing to do in this kind of situation2010-09-09 18:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to sit back and see the market inch up or down2010-09-09 18:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and your emotion gets the best of you and makes you commit2010-09-09 18:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that you have to catch it early or you'll be left behind2010-09-09 18:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a suckers bet2010-09-09 18:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want texture2010-09-09 18:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want character2010-09-09 18:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not getting that right now2010-09-09 18:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market isn't saying much of anything to change my mind2010-09-09 18:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?2010-09-09 18:05:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great work, as usual, thanks so much!2010-09-09 18:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one last thing here2010-09-09 18:05:43 [Message] cycletrader -> Chat: yes, thanks again, Fib!2010-09-09 18:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market does sell off next week2010-09-09 18:05:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: John "Silent One" has some cyclical Hurst stuff that suggests downward action for the metal, esp silver2010-09-09 18:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're playing it short2010-09-09 18:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make it a day trade2010-09-09 18:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're looking for a entry point2010-09-09 18:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait a day or so for confirmation2010-09-09 18:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch volume2010-09-09 18:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the total daily2010-09-09 18:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but UD2010-09-09 18:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is the key now2010-09-09 18:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: uummm...the trend for gold is higher2010-09-09 18:07:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: Right, I guess he's calling for a top2010-09-09 18:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad10/breadthpm090310.gif2010-09-09 18:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can gold top with the printing presses on high speed?2010-09-09 18:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can gold top if interest rates are at zero?2010-09-09 18:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can gold top if we're going to get more stimulus?2010-09-09 18:08:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: He's a good Hurst/Gann technician. I think he is looking for an Oct bottom2010-09-09 18:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...a short term top2010-09-09 18:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problem2010-09-09 18:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're at all time highs again2010-09-09 18:08:41 [Message] doc -> Chat: Oh definitely2010-09-09 18:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the longer term trend is higher2010-09-09 18:08:57 [Message] doc -> Chat: Long term he's bullish2010-09-09 18:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more chart...and I have to go2010-09-09 18:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..then I won't post the chart2010-09-09 18:09:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: He shorted RGLD yesterday2010-09-09 18:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you look at monthly gold since 2000...that tells the story quite adequately2010-09-09 18:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great call2010-09-09 18:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?2010-09-09 18:09:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when that pattern breaks out North, it will catch a LOT of short players-nothing better than a failed pattern2010-09-09 18:09:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: No, thanks again.2010-09-09 18:10:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: Nice discussions2010-09-09 18:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...that's the idea2010-09-09 18:10:27 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you2010-09-09 18:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully I've left you all with something to work with until next Thursday2010-09-09 18:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...everyone have a great week2010-09-09 18:10:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: vacation market, dead ahead lol2010-09-09 18:10:49 [Message] cycletrader -> Chat: You too2010-09-09 18:10:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: You know the sparks will fly with you in Vegas2010-09-09 18:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'll see you all next week2010-09-09 18:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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