Ukraine, Rebels Agree on New Round of Weapon Pullbacks

The Minsk ceasefire back in February dictated that both the Ukrainian military and rebels would withdraw all weapons of over 100 mm caliber from the front lines of the battlefield. It’s been a mixed success, with both sides withdrawing some, and keeping others, and both blaming the other for not withdrawing more first.

Today, the OSCE has announced that a preliminary deal has been reached by the two sides on yet more pullbacks, this time focusing on weapons smaller than 100 mm, aiming to further calm the tensions that have dominated the months that have followed.

Not that the ceasefire is nearly the failure that Western hawks have presented it as. A few incidents aside, fighting has all but stopped since February, and while there has been a lot of rhetoric on both sides, neither seems eager to quickly return to war.

The new weapon pull-back deal is surprising though, since both sides have been so reluctant to follow through on the deals already in place. It is likely to just add to complaints by both that the other side isn’t taking things seriously enough.

2 thoughts on “Ukraine, Rebels Agree on New Round of Weapon Pullbacks”

"[N]either seems eager to quickly return to war". That's the interesting point. The Ukrainains don't need to attack. By blocking Putin where he is, they've defeated him. All they have to do is prevent him grabbing any more territory. But why hasn't Putin attacked? Why is he still hiding behind private contractors even though no one believes that he isn't running the show? Fear of a war with NATO? Fear of an anti-war movement at home, with large-scale desertions as in Chechnya? Fear that a fight with the Ukrainians wouldn't be a cakewalk? Fear of alienating the Chinese, whose Silk Road project he is obstructing? We'll have to see!

First, the war has not "all but stopped" – shelling of Donetsk and other cities has been nearly continuous if not at the previous intensity.

Second, Ukraine can't afford to restart the war as long as they're dependent on the IMF for bailout assistance because the IMF will not lend money to a country at war. And Ukraine will be defaulting on its debt within the next couple of months so they desperately need a bailout. This is also made complicated by the bailout Greece needs which makes it much harder for the EU to bail out Ukraine to which it owes nothing unlike Greece which is an EU member.

Third, Putin is doing what he's been doing since the beginning: sitting back and watching the Ukraine collapse into a failed state. He has not need to attack Ukraine other than by demanding it repay its $3 billion bill.

Fourth, the odds of an "antiwar movement" occurring in Russia is nil. Putin's popularity is at an all-time high, and a lot of Russians would prefer he be MORE aggressive, not less, in Ukraine.

Fifth, any war between Russia and Ukraine would be a cakewalk. Putin himself said that if Russia invaded Ukraine, they would be in Kiev in a couple of weeks. I think he's too pessimistic. I would predict they would be in Kiev in 72 hours.

Sixth, the nothing that Putin is "obstructing" China is just inane. The two countries are working hand in glove to expand economic cooperation throughout Central Asia.