Here you go Kalimon - the storm track. The fresh maker is the innocuous clouds behind the trough under the arrowhead of the leftern most arrow. See those clouds? That signals an Alaskan storm fueled by tropical moisture. I

This one's a snow maker.... maybe not. Still pretty warm. May fall as rain - at least there's no snow pack to melt.

$heeeeeit.
Flood watch and nothing but a $hit ton of rain around here.
Kwood will officially have a very solid base after this but what falls ain't gonna be blower. The lower resorts are literally going to get hosed.

still dry up at tahoe but the big green blob on the radar is headed our way.
predicted snow levels don't seem as dreary this morning although the big storm saturday night into sunday still looks pretty warm.
it's still early in the winter.

Raining in Chico, means it must be heading our way. I'm in eastern Plumas County at 5000' and not a drop yet. It was about 40 degrees at 5:00 am this morning. Warm, too warm. And too cloudy to see the lunar eclipse.

Yeah, Dingus, I hacked the Unisys mail system for the whole state of Alaska
BITD. It was a hoot reading people's mail and then sending them cryptic
messages. When I told the IT peeps about their hole they wouldn't believe me.
Until I told 'em what was in their mailboxes. BwaHaHaHa!

Ron, I thought we were all aware of the rain shadow effect around here? Anyway, those CA types don't give a crap what lands on this side of the range this far north ;). Well, unless they're 80 and are still catching the gambler's special up to that nice John Ascuagua boy's place.

Dumping snow nicely here at Donner Summit! Hoping for a couple of feet today and tonight, so we can handle some heavy rain, then more snow...Might go out and ski in a training track for today before it gets too deep. yeah for winter!

ps. How about those US XC Ski Team Women! First World Cup last weekend. Kikkan Randall Third place 10k! US Womens team 3rd in the relay! Best results ever...

Notice Dingus that the WV imagery, posted a page back, shows dry air over Hawaii and that the storm has just a small straw into some subtropical moisture much closer to the coast. Also notice that you have a split flow in the jet stream, you can make it out in all the satellite shots but also in the link Bruce posted.

This is going to take away from the full force of the storm, in addition the small straw into the sub tropical moisture doesnt help, if your hoping for copius amounts of precip.

split flow from bruces link, a weak arm aimed at WA/BC

notice the small "atmospheric river" from the sub-tropical moisture plume

current sat shot, notice you just dont have a good flow from the subtropics

It's coming down in W Reno! I love a good rain storm. I grew up in Sacramento, so I prefer to get socked in with rain announcing itself with a pitter patter, not the silent creeping burglar of snow playing tricks and hiding the world from view unbeknownst.

Town of mammoth got about 3"-5" of snow...... but it was raining when I left my job site.... bet the top got hammered .... most likely will be good wind-buff after the blow-out winds following this system.... doubt it will be pow with these warm temps.

Has anybody posted this link ? http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_e_pcp3+///3
Sure looks like N CA is going to be pounded. Wishin' all yooz to batten down the hatches and use your avalanche poodles when out on the hills.

The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a
* Flood Watch for
the Truckee River at Vista
* from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon.
* At 1:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 4.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is possible.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast... flood stage may be reached by Sunday afternoon.
* Impact... at 15.0 feet... minor flooding begins in lowest portions
of the Truckee Meadows, including Truckee River bike path through
Sparks, University farm, Boynton Slough, Rosewood lakes Golf
course. High stages on the Truckee begin to cause backwater
flooding from storm drains in lower Sparks Industrial area, and
along Steamboat Creek.

Flood watch in effect for other areas of CA and NV. Don't be dumb out there.
-----------------------------------

If you or your business may be in the affected areas here is where you can get free sandbags.

Due to the current weather forecast and the potential for flooding, sandbags and sand will be available to the public at one location beginning Saturday, Dec. 18 at 8 a.m. This site will be accessible and materials will be available daily between the hours of 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., including this Saturday and Sunday.

Parking lot of Governors Bowl Park located at the end of Line Drive off of East Fourth Street. Line Drive is on the North side of East Fourth Street just East of Sixth Street.

BYOS (Bring Your Own Shovel)

Play Video

Watch a video on how to properly use sandbags
Please be advised that you will need to bring a shovel and fill the sandbags yourself.

Should the potential for flooding and the demand for sandbags increase, we will activate additional sandbag sites pursuant to the city's flood action plan.

When I worked at Squaw Valley in 1980, we had a good 6' base by New Years day. A few days later we got hit by the Pineapple Express and it rained continuously for 3 days. The whole East Face of KT-22, Reddog and Reddog Ridge climax avalanched. It took out most of the lower lift towers of Olympic Lady and ruined a lot of buzzez that winter. There were 4' water erosion channels on most of the Mountain Run. This winter could shape up to be something similar IMO.

About the tahoe guy. Almost always take weather forecasting with a grain of salt. Especially long term prognostication. What I like about the tahoe page is that he explains things in ways that I can understand. I know that he isn't always right, and has even made some big mistakes. So what. He at least gave some explanation for why he was so wrong. And those guys with all the letters after their names have also made lots of mistakes. He is just one of many tools that I use to try to get an understanding for what is going to happen. I also like some of the graphics he posts.

I also look outside. I read a story once about a big storm that hit california a number of years ago. Back in the 50s I think. I can't remember where I found it, probably in our local book sale. Part of it was from the weather forecasters point of view. He told a story about reminding the new forecasters to always go outside before they posted their forecast. This was because they worked in a big building inside with no windows. He said that when he was new he was working nights and he studied all of the info that they had, was about to post that it was going to be a sunny morning, but one of the night cleaners said he had just been outside and it was raining hard. He was that off in his prediction.

This was because they worked in a big building inside with no windows. He said that when he was new he was working nights and he studied all of the info that they had, was about to post that it was going to be a sunny morning

Ain't that the truth. Salt Lake City, ca 1968. Late afternoon, summer, about 5:30. TV weatherman forecasting chance of showers.
While it was thunder, lightning and raining leopards and wolves right outside the studio door. I know, I was in a building across the street. A building with windows.

Indeed. I was on Long Island as Sandy approached. The forecast for the big hook to the left was on Friday morning. Sandy's eye hit on Monday night within a few dozen miles of the forecast. Tidal surge and wind strength/direction forecasts were also spot on. A surprisingly reliable forecast for such an unusual storm.

Data is easy, its model output thats tricky...heres what they had to choose from 5 days out...the two commonly used models for weather prediction in NA, WRF and GFS sent it out to sea...the Euro model ECMWF nailed it 5 days out.

If you get upset because you put even a shred of faith in any forecast longer than 48 hours that's your own fault. Long range forecasts are a bit of a joke, imho.

BA at TWD is great. People just get pissed when the weather doesn't cooperate and the messenger makes a convenient scapegoat.
He's very open about not being a professional weatherman. His blog was a hobby that's grown due to its popularity. Feel free to watch the Reno TV weather man if you prefer.

With the potential for localized flooding, starting today, sandbags and sand will be available for the public at three locations: Idlewild Park (located at 1900 Idlewild Drive); First Street at Riverside Drive; and the parking lot of the Governor’s Bowl Park (located at the end of Line Drive which is off of East Fourth Street). The sites and materials will be available between 8:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m., including Saturday and Sunday. Residents will need to bring a shovel to fill the sandbags. Should the potential for flooding and the need for sandbags increase, additional sandbag sites will be announced.

56 mph max gust this morning, third straight day with 50+ winds, with 1.37" of rain in Verdi today. 2.42" storm total so far, and still raining at a good clip.. this storm alone is probably going to be a substantial part of the annual precipitation here.

There's a very interesting story I found from socialclimber's link upthread, about "atmospheric rivers" and the 43 day deluge that flooded N Cal back in 1861. There's evidence this happens about every 200 years:

The intense rainstorms sweeping in from the Pacific Ocean began to pound central California on Christmas Eve in 1861 and continued virtually unabated for 43 days. The deluges quickly transformed rivers running down from the Sierra Nevada mountains along the state’s eastern border into raging torrents that swept away entire communities and mining settlements. The rivers and rains poured into the state’s vast Central Valley, turning it into an inland sea 300 miles long and 20 miles wide. Thousands of people died, and one quarter of the state’s estimated 800,000 cattle drowned. Downtown Sacramento was submerged under 10 feet of brown water filled with debris from countless mudslides on the region’s steep slopes. California’s legislature, unable to function, moved to San Francisco until Sacramento dried out—six months later.

kunlun_shan, There is a description of the 1861 flood event in "Up and Down California" by William Brewer which is basically a diary of his years on the Whitney survey party from 1861 to 1864, most excellent read. Drop me a PM about skiing, likely heading out tomorrow for high ground.

A gust of wind hit the house night before last that was an easy 80 mph plus I thought it tore the roof off.

Floods are good the best fishing I ever had was after the 97 flood. Created a ton of new habitat and cleaned the river pretty well except for all the products that floated into the river after the wharehouses flooded in sparks.

Anyway we need it and we need it big. Flood away mother nature bring it on.

Hard to say how bad it will be. Hopefully not to many properties involved. But historically we get floods at least once every decade so most residents here are pretty aware if it is a problem for their home or business.

And that previous world record, according to Weather Underground, was 189 inches. But that took place in a six-day period. Not surprisingly, it happened at Mount Shasta Ski bowl (now Mount Shasta Ski Park) in February 1959, which was the first year that the ski resort opened.

From the newsfeed quoted, above. . .

WELL. . . just to set the record straight. . . The old Mt Shasta Ski Bowl (destroyed by avalanches in the 70s) and today's Mt Shasta Ski Park are two completely different things. . . in two completely different places on the mountain.

That alone, might render the above report a little shaky, not to mention the title of the article being:

This system has been a lightweight for S Calif, only about a 1/2" storm total here.

It does look like a pineapple express flow is setting up pulling water up from over the SE Asia and off the Tibetan Plateau, then north of Hawaii. that's when it seems to hit us. Maybe we'll get a real storm in a week or so.

If the flow is up from the equator and south of Hawaii, like this system started out, it seems to hit north of Pt. Conception and we don't get much.

No comparison at all to this. It destroyed 1/3 of the tax base in the state and drowned 1/4 of the cattle.

The flood ended the California cattle ranch industry and destroyed the ranchero social order.

For a week the tides at the Golden Gate did not flood, rather there was continuous and forceful ebb of brown fresh water 18-20 feet deep pouring out above the salt water. A sea captain reported that his heavily laden ship foundered in the Gulf of the Farallons off of San Francisco, due to the layer of fresh water. Fresh-water fish were caught in San Francisco Bay for several months after the peaks of the flood. These events have not happened since. (Ellis 1936)

Bluey.....nah....not the BIGGEST storm I've ever seen up here on Castle Rock Ridge. There was that one in......
but I digress
6" rain since Thursday. And still raining. 1" overnight and it didn't feel like it was raining at all by comparison to Thurs night.

c'mon up to Castle Rock for some slick rock bouldering.....bring your Wellies! your snorkel too and we'll do the falls routes.

For a week the tides at the Golden Gate did not flood, rather there was continuous and forceful ebb of brown fresh water 18-20 feet deep pouring out above the salt water

And now we have a dozen or so big dams on the Sacramento/San Joaquin so that's not likely to happen again.

In terms of the ability of dams to do much flood control in a storm series like those big historical ones, don't get your hopes up. Dams do a pretty good job on the normal and usual storms, as there is only so much water management they can accomplish. Once it gets a little unusual, like in 1998 when dam flood control was basically overwhelmed, dams pretty mcuh stop working, because when the reservoir is full, its like the dam isn't even there. Water in always has to equal water out, so those historical flood conditions might not be as unexpected as you are assuming.

Hydraulic mining was a minor contributing factor in the 1861 flood. Mostly in the debris that it liberated down stream that tore up log dams and retaining basins.

The Sacramento, and San Joaqin valleys were lakes for almost a month and Orange County was an inland sea for three weeks. Flow of the Santa Ana river at the narrows was an estimated 320,000 CFS To give that some perspective the average flow of the Missippi is 450,000 CFS.

Even the Mojave river was 20' above flood stage and most of the desert lake beds filled.

I doubt the flood cotrol system could handle it at either end of the state.

For example even if Prado Dam did hold in a repeat of 1861 there would be a deep lake streching from Pomona to Redlands and from the San Gabriels to Corona that would take months to drain without wiping out Anaheim and the coastal cities.

Hydraulic mining was a minor contributing factor in the 1861 flood. Mostly in the debris that it liberated down stream that tore up log dams and retaining basins.

The Sacramento, and San Joaqin valleys were lakes for almost a month and Orange County was an inland sea for three weeks. Flow of the Santa Ana river at the narrows was an estimated 320,000 CFS To give that some perspective the average flow of the Missippi is 450,000 CFS.

Even the Mojave river was 20' above flood stage and most of the desert lake beds filled

WOW--the things that they did NOT teach us in our calif history...
wish they had...
thanks for sharing... i never knew of this...

Discovery Bay, right next to Brentwood and many central Delta areas are protected by one measly levee with some Delta properties actually lying under high tide line. That area is a massive disaster waiting to happen.

Probably not this time, but a similar series of storms on top of a huge snowpack might do it.

Ok, there have been storms… but given that these 3 "big" storms look nothing larger than I've ever seen before in my life. I am inclined to believe that this one is of no more significants than any other "fall weather"…. rainy, cloudy, foggy (in my area), cold….. Overall, the 3-pack of clouds has nothing in them.

I can change my mind when I see more under water than not under water

To be honest there seems to be nothing out of the ordinary with this weather….But I guess with Sandy hitting the east the west wants to get back some of that tragedy attention, I guess.

Hundreds of homes in Weston Ranch, Just south of Stockton were built on a flood plane. Crappy homes that sold for over 5k and now worth about 2K. Just stupid they ever built there except for the developers.

I was sort of wondering the same thing, though I was thinking in terms of being misconstrued as catastrophic. I understood that you were just stoked for the potential of some serious snow. If it had snowed down just a little bit lower it would have been fantastic.

In their defense, there were a number of news reports that focused on how potentially enormous it could have been.

I had a fairly benign purpose in mind for opening the thread... a big storm was in fact bearing down on California and a lot and I mean a lot of jaded assed climbers think they can go sashaying out in that sh#t lah dee dah. Some of you can. Most of us can't. It was a friendly warning from a weather aficionado... this one was going to hit. And it did.

You're welcome.

Now you can back to telling stories about how you been beat up by uglier women than me. I hope you have, too. Bad.

The winds will really start to crank tonight as storm #3 approaches with gusts as high as hurricane force at 75mph in the valleys and up to category 4 hurricane strength at 150 mph over the ridges. The the heavy precip begins to push in during the early morning hours and the snow levels shoot up to 9000+ ft. This should only last several hours before colder air works in as the cold front approaches. Sunday morning the snow levels should drop back down to 8000 ft. and then 7000 by midday and lake level by evening.

The forecast models are in good agreement that 2-3 inches of liquid will fall over the basin and 3-4 inches West of the lake along the crest. Above 9000 ft. we could see 2-3 feet with 3-4 along the crest. Below that the forecast gets tricky as it depends on how fast the cold air works in. I think we could see accumulating snow all the way to lake level by Sunday evening if enough precip is still around. Between 7000-9000 ft. 1-3 feet are possible and several inches below that

After a long night and morning of total wind lashing torrential downpour,it just turned to snow here at 7,100ft at Donner Summit!! Sticking, coming down hard...Really hoping we can get a foot or two to stick on our rain sogged base today...Wonder whats happening near the river in Truckee?

Hey Ekat.. you said they moved the ski area to a different area of the mountain. Did they move it lower?

Lower and around the mountain. . . instead of driving on the Everitt Memorial Highway (from the town of Mt. Shasta) you drive around the mountain on Highway 89 toward McCloud and head up to private land, at the intersection at Snowman's Hill.

You could lose it at Chair One on Mammoth! But. . . day in and day out, top to bottom black diamonds - ALONE!

I skied the place out in less than 2 hours my first time there. . . that's kinda why I opted to stay in Montana this winter. . . it's time to ski Fernie and Big. . . kinda need to get the ole heartrate up!

Cool RottingJohnny! Yellow klister is gross, but sometimes good skiing...If it keeps dumping, and puts enough on the ground to soak up the deep puddles, I will go out and train, ie. break trail, then do a bunch of laps in my Salomon 88's. Will you be at the Tannebaum race on the 16th? Maybe see you there!

Maysho...I may show for the Tannebaum...Get it..May show..? I don't get to play as much anymore but the fire in the belly still smolders...Racing is more fun when you can go fast and less painful too...The yellow Klister worked pretty damn well...RJ

Ekat...Where the heck are you...? Montana or Shasta..? If you are in Montana that would mean a suckafish is near whitefish...I ski slow and still ended up in Bridgeport , the inner bred capital of the eastside...

I have a housesitter/caretaker at my place in Shasta. . . I just HAD to ski at home this winter. . . I really missed this place!

Dig this, JWerd, our NordicCenter allows DOGS. . . 2/3 of what they groom (ginzu) is open for doggies. . . it's RAD! Not that I have a doggie anymore, but it's still a rad trail system. . . and Skadi and I were usually the only ones there, anyway!

4" rain on Castle Rock ridge last night. Winds gusting (probably) over 60. Calm now but still rainin' like a cow pi**in' on a flat rock.

For a good description of the floods of 1861-62 see Book III, Chapter I of "Up and Down California" by William F. Brewer (University of California Press). This is an excellent book about California, Dec 1860 - Dec 1864

Looks like the snow levels dropped a bit which allowed Reno/Sparks to dodge the flood bullet barely.

Very cool.

Yeah, good stuff. I'm glad I live up the hill from the Truckee River though. It would take Noah type conditions for us to get flooded ;). My wife and I just took a walk down by the river, and it was swollen and bringing all kinds of debris with it.

I used to live by the levees in Sacramento. That could be a nightmare in rainy season, waiting for alarms and news of a sudden break, all the while seeing the water lap up to the bottom of the Tower Bridge. Yikes!

We lived on the West Sacramento side, the poor side, and urban legend was those a-holes in Sacramento would blow the levee on our side if it came down to it! Hahaha.... I'm not even sure that would save their hide, but it seemed plausible in that paranoid mindset.

Nice pfoto Cragman. RE: the topic - Saw on the Yosemite webcams that the Merced had risen quite a bit this afternoon, and Yosemite falls was about Spring runoff volume. Would be a good time to break out the spinning rod.

I was in a big sterile American shopping mall today, one of those lifestyles of the rich and famous malls. They realized I was an imposter (ran a credit check on me) and escorted me OUT.

Not till I saw the new James Bond film though. 50-year franchise, and the first Bond movie I ever saw on the big screen. I liked the movie and flu recovery (real influenza, no joke, lost 10-15 lbs in 3 days!) is complete.

DMT

Speaking of scary waters and movies, you should check out The Life of Pi. Very cool ocean cinematography, unsterile India, and big feelings we American dudes have to pretend we can't feel.

Too bad about the flu, man. But, you know, with the lbs gone you can crank harder now ;).

I get the flu shot every season now, but some people think it's witch craft or something. And if it is, bravo, ladies.

We got 9 inches or rain here in Wawona and 10.5 inches at the south gate in 5 days. If that had been snow at badger it would have been epic. High snow lines and just enough time between to empty the streams and it did no damage.

Jack Sibbach, Marketing and Public Relations Director for the Sun Valley Company, said, "This was a big one."

Sibbach said the avalanche occurred on Lookout Bowl and slid down the length of the mountain. The Ski Patrol noticed the slide and reported it Monday morning. There is no way of knowing exactly when the avalanche occurred, according to Sibbach.

Sibbach said a pile of snow from the avalanche had gathered at the base of the Seattle Ridge lift. There was no damage to the lift.

Lookout Bowl was not open at the time of the avalanche and is currently still closed.

No one was injured in the naturally occurring slide.

Sibbach said the resort has received 35 inches of new snow since Friday. Winds were high and visibility was low on Sunday. In fact, the resort had to close a few lifts Sunday because of high winds.

Tuesday update:

The Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center is reporting considerable avalanche danger in the Sawtooths, along with the North, Central, and South Wood River Valley.

Scott Savage with the avalanche center says two factors are contributing to the avalanche danger.
The first factor, or primary avalanche concern, is a layer of wind affected snow called a "slab" that built up during last weekend's storm.

The second factor, or secondary avalanche concern, is made of two weakened layers in the snowpack buried deep beneath much of the snow in higher elevations.

Anyone going into these mountain areas is cautioned to read the avalanche center's full report, and stay below higher elevations with open, exposed slopes.