GOP Wave Election in 2010

Reports from Charlie Cook and Pew Research confirm the strong likelihood of 2010 being a wave election year for Republicans. Cook describes it as more than a wave, calling it a force 3, maybe force 4 hurricane. What’s behind these kinds of projections?

First, the generic numbers have gone from a 19 point Democratic advantage a year ago to a slight GOP advantage now. That’s a very strong trend line. In polling, trend lines mean more than daily snapshots, and a years worth of trending to the GOP is a serious move.

Second, voter enthusiasm is overwhelmingly in favor of the Republicans heading into the fall. Pew Research reports,

“The Republican Party now holds about the same advantage in enthusiasm among its party’s voters that the Democratic Party held in June 2006 and the GOP had late in the 1994 campaign.”
The analysis, according to Pew,

“This could translate into a sizable turnout advantage for the GOP in November that could transform an even race among registered voters into a solid victory for the Republicans.”

Cook is even more direct as he evaluates the effect of voter enthusiasm numbers:

“…one group was more interested in November than it was in 2008: those who had voted for Republican John McCain for president. And the groups that showed the largest decline in interest? Those who voted for Barack Obama — liberals, African-Americans, self-described Democrats, moderates, those living in either the Northeast or West, and younger voters 18 to 34 years of age. These are the “Holy Mackerel” numbers.” [emphasis added].

Cook points out that, not only may Republicans regain control of the House, but that this is redistricting election. Those elected in this cycle will oversee redistricting of congressional districts which could have a decade long impact on coming election cycles.

The caveat, of course, is that elections are still four months off. But, the trend, and the enthusiasm factors are now clearly beginning to show, and if those trends hold Republicans across the country will be the beneficiaries.