What one expert calls the “Achilles' heel” of the controversial plan for regulating Lake Ontario water levels is revealing itself for the first time this fall.

The lake is high — at a near-record high level for this time of year — because the new regulatory system, Plan 2014, dictates that it be that way.

The water is likely to stay higher than people are accustomed to right through the end of the year, and perhaps in the spring as well.

The persistence of higher water is "part of the damage of Plan 2014," said Frank Sciremammano, a Brighton engineer who has been involved in lake-level matters for decades. "The water stays higher for a longer period of time, and the window for a bad storm to hit is longer."

CLOSE

Valerie Bates has lived on Lake Ontario for over 50 years and has noticed the receding shoreline. (November 2017)
Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Steve Orr

As of a few days ago, the water was a full 12 inches above the long-term norm for this time of year. Since lake-level regulation began nearly 60 years ago, the lake has been this high in late November only a handful of times.

The inflow from Lake Erie, whose level is 1 ½ feet above normal, is also likely to continue to be above-average well into 2018.

"There’s a lot of question marks going through the winter and early spring," Sciremammano said. "But in general, we’re more likely to be high than low."

This does raise the risk of more shoreline flooding and erosion next spring, officials at the International Joint Commission say — but only very slightly. Their studies have found that no set of lake-level rules can hold back the water during times of extreme precipitation and inflow such as experienced this year.

A study is underway now to look at how the plan worked given this year's conditions. Its conclusions are due in early 2018, although any recommended modifications would be likely subtle.

But the situation with high autumn water now alarms and infuriates some shoreline residents who fear, with or without justification, that the regulators at the International Joint Commission are setting them up for another round of devastation.

This year's flooding damaged thousands of properties and businesses and has a price tag that will likely top $100 million. It left shoreline denizens frustrated, angry and anxious about a possible recurrence.

“All of the upper Great Lakes are well above average and the winter forecast is for a warmer and wetter winter, depending on which forecaster you go with,” said Phil Miglioratti, who lives in a lakefront home in Webster. “My desire would be to see us take some action now.”

But that's not going to happen. The plan calls for the lake to be lowered just 3 inches more by year's end.

These homes on Lake Road in Webster have only a small stretch of land it sits on between Irondequoit Bay and Lake Ontario.

(Photo: Tina MacIntyre-Yee, Max Schulte/)

Greater variations and coastal Impacts

Plan 2014, so-named for the year it was developed, was designed to boost the lake's ecosystem by allowing a more natural cyclical fluctuation of Lake Ontario's waters.

It replaced Plan 1958DD, a prior iteration born in the 1950s in an effort to balance out the impacts on the lake's shoreline stakeholders with those on dam operators, boaters, shippers along the St. Lawrence River and flood-prone residents near Montreal. Effects on the environment were never considered then, to what environmentalists now say was devastating effect.

Plan 2014 is meant to add protections for disappearing wetlands and marshes to the mix by introducing this greater variability in water levels. It was considered a monumental win for environmentalists, who say it represented the second-largest wetlands restoration project ever undertaken in North America.

The higher water in the fall, a staple of the new plan, mimics the lake's natural autumnal level, according to Bill Werick, a technical advisor to the IJC.

"You get higher fall levels, which gets you higher spring levels, which most of the time is a good thing," he said..

This greater variation in levels was intended to help restore wetlands and various species — northern pike, black terns, spiny softshell turtles — that live in and around them. Higher water in the fall and winter, for example, would help protect muskrat burrows from predators.

Several homes on Edgemere Drive in Greece are repairing their breakwall.

(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE, @tyee23/staff photographer)

$2 million out of pocket

One aspect of Plan 2014 that greatly angered shoreline property owners is that none of the other interest groups were expected to suffer financially under the new regulations.

But the property owners? They're out $2 million a year.

That is the sum that the IJC predicted would be needed each year for extra maintenance of the protective structures that line nearly half of the American side of Lake Ontario.

Dan Barletta of Greece, director of the Monroe County branch of the Lake Ontario Riparian Alliance, which represents shoreline property owners, says those estimates were never realistic to begin with.

"No accounting of damages beyond the first row of lakeshore homes were considered," he said. "Homes in and on our bays and ponds were not included."

Furthermore, he said, the estimates didn't factor in retrofitting breakwalls or marinas to cope with the plan's called-for higher highs.

When it adopted the plan, the commission recommended that government set aside a pot of money that shoreline property owners could draw upon to cover these costs. But the federal, state and provincial governments have ignored the recommendation.

The maintenance costs are the result of the plan's longer spells of what some call "medium-high" and "medium-low" water.

The regulations make this medium-high water the new normal, especially in the fall. And that will inevitably lead to damage to protective revetments and breakwalls on the shoreline.

"Plan 2014 does create more coastal impacts than 1958DD. That’s a fact. It happens mostly in the medium-high range," Werick said.

Low-lying spots, including Sodus Point in Wayne County, could find waves washing over breakwalls more often. "And if your shore protection is lower, it’s more likely to be destroyed," he said.

Werick said protective structures that are too low or otherwise poorly designed will bear the brunt of the damage.

A study done for New York state in 2013 found that nearly half the structures on the New York shoreline were in poor or moderate condition. Conditions were worst in Orleans and Niagara counties.

On a Facebook page run by the IJC’s outflow board, conversations about what happened this year are spirited. Many lakeshore residents decry the IJC’s handling of the high waters, still placing blame for the destruction on Plan 2014.

They’re especially angry about what they believe was the IJC unfairly burdening them with damages, while sparing other lake interests including shipping and hydropower this year.

“Riparians lost money, time, blood, property,” Pete Brennan of Greece told the board. “If you consider that equal distribution of pain, something is seriously flawed in the way you all think. The ‘primary’ interest this year was shipping, no ifs ands or buts about it. Shipping made money, riparians lost money. Simple as that.”

He said given how high the water still is, several of his neighbors around the Edgemere Drive neighborhoods still haven't been able to repair the damage that happened from this year's flooding.

A sewer grate is lifted in the parking lot of Crescent Beach Restaurant.

(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE, @tyee23/staff photographer)

Out of their hands

As this flood year has wound on, complaints have persisted that the regulators didn't do enough to stave off the high water.

Experts generally agree that's not the case. So much water flowed into the Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River basins that it overwhelmed the regulations.

"It was the most extreme event since modern record-keeping began," said Tony David, a member of the IJC's International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board, which has the authority to adjust the outflow from the lake to the river.

Underscoring that anomaly; Five cities spread through the two basins — Rochester, Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa and Belleville, Ontario — broke all-time rainfall records for the first five months of the year.

Indeed, at a recent state Senate hearing on the lake levels, David explained that heavy rains throughout the basins, coupled with an unusually wet and mild winter and above- average inflows from the upper Great Lakes, “illustrated the limited role of water regulation in preventing high water from occurring.”

Sciremammano, who has been a member of the IJC outflow board since 1995, agreed that no set of rules could have made much difference this year.

But he has cautioned repeatedly that Plan 2014 has curtailed the authority of that board, and left shoreline residents at a disadvantage in the future.

Residents on Edgemere Drive were effected by high Lake Ontario levels and winds whipping the lake towards their property. Portions of this street were submerged under water as well as homes flooded by both the lake and Round Pond.(Photo: Tina MacIntyre-Yee, Max Schulte )

During the spring the marina and homes to the right of the bridge had water from Lake Ontario and Irondequoit Bay come up onto the property flooding many properties. It has since receded.(Photo: Tina MacIntyre-Yee, Max Schulte/)

As the wind whips up the waves, some of the waves make it over the portable dam set up in front of a few homes on Edgemere Drive are dealing with water on their property again.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE, @tyee23/staff photographer)

Winds from the northeast whip up the waves on Lake Ontario. Homes along Edgemere Drive continue to deal with water damage. This house lost part of its breakwall over the past month.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE, @tyee23/staff photographer)

Winds from the northeast whip up the waves on Lake Ontario. Homes along Edgemere Drive are dealing with water on their property again. (June 14, 2017)(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE, @tyee23/staff photographer)

The water bladder is set up in front of approximately three homes that are the most vulnerable from the lake where water in the past has flowed off their lawn onto the street.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE, @tyee23/staff photographer)

Residents of Edgemere Drive prepare for high waves from Lake Ontario. Gov. Andrew Cuomo visited the area and Sodus Point to announce that the state is testing an inflatable water dam that will be placed at the edge of some properties on the lake. If it is successful they will get more. Cuomo also talked about grants for residents and business owners who received damage. Dakota McKie with the 827 Engineering Company with the U.S. Army sits on the water dam keeping it steady until it’s completely filled.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

Kevin Wisely, director of New York State Emergency Management Office, watches as James McNeely, with Flood Protection Services, explains how the Aqua Dam works to Gov. Andrew Cuomo.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/@tyee23/staff photographer)

A water dam, placed near an area on Edgemere Drive where Lake Ontario has flowed out and onto the street, is being filled and being used as part of an attempt to keep Lake Ontario from flooding the area.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

Residents of Edgemere Drive prepare for high waves from Lake Ontario. Gov. Andrew Cuomo visited the area and Sodus Point to announce that the state is testing an inflatable water dam that will be placed at the edge of some properties on the lake. (Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

Water levels at Lake Ontario continue to rise cutting into the shoreline at Ontario Beach Park. Wednesday morning all that was left of the beach was a small stretch of sand.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/@tyee23/staff photographer)

Water levels at Lake Ontario continue to rise cutting into the shoreline at Lake Ontario beach. John Cottrell of Rochester fishes off the pier close to shore in Charlotte.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

Water levels at Lake Ontario continue to rise cutting into the shoreline at Lake Ontario beach. A big tree near the boardwalk at Ontario Beach Park is now a lot closer to the water.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

Water levels at Lake Ontario continue to rise. Wednesday morning there was more water on the beach than sand. This is a view looking west at Ontario Beach.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

Water levels at Lake Ontario continue to rise cutting into the shoreline at Lake Ontario beach. In addition to the beach being smaller, there were several small pools of standing water in Ontario Beach Park.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

Many claim water levels in Lake Ontario are the highest they have ever seen. Some of the wooden posts, which are close to the boardwalk at Ontario Beach, are now in water. (Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

Water levels at Lake Ontario continue to rise. Water coming into Slater Creek Park in Greece from Lake Ontario at times squirts under the bridge on Beach Avenue.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/@tyee23/staff photographer)

A mother with her ducklings pause before they drink water in Irondequoit Bay while standing on a partially submerged dock at Newport Yacht Club in Irondequoit. (Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

Dave Mills wades into what was the the dry dock at Arney's Marina in Sodus Point. Many boaters are holding off on getting their boats in because of the flooding and hazards on the lake.(Photo: MAX SCHULTE, @maxrocphoto/staff photographer)

Bob Boyce, a salesman at Arney's Marina in Sodus Point steps out of the work shop were employees are still servicing boats into the mote that holds back the lake water.(Photo: MAX SCHULTE, @maxrocphoto/staff photographer)

The above image was take April, 21 and the bottom photos was taken May, 16 at Arney's Marina in Sodus Point. Rising lake waters have kept the staff at the Marina busy building a mote around the building and maintaining pumps to keep the business dry.(Photo: MAX SCHULTE, @maxrocphoto/staff photographer)

2017 file photo; Water completely covered the dock with a foot of water as Irondequoit Bay continued to rise at the Bay Side Pub, 279 Lake Road in Webster.(Photo: SHAWN DOWD/@sdowdphoto/STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER)

Bill Joyce, who lives on Old Edgemere Drive, used plywood to protect his house from damaging wave action from Lake Ontario. Joyce has suffered flooding and break wall damage.(Photo: JAMIE GERMANO, @jgermano1/Staff Photographer)

Sandbags surround a break wall alongside the Pelican's Nest Restaurant, at 566 N. River St. in Rochester, as the rising waters from Lake Ontario flood into the mouth of the Genesee River and flood out the popular restaurant. Owner Terry Testa says the restaurant will open early next week.(Photo: SHAWN DOWD/@sdowdphoto/STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER)

Sandbags surround a break wall along side the Pelican's Nest Restaurant, at 566 N. River St. in Rochester, as the rising waters from Lake Ontario flood into the mouth of the Genesee River and flood out the popular restaurant on Friday, May 12, 2017.(Photo: SHAWN DOWD/@sdowdphoto/STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER)

Rising waters at the edge of the docks at the Pelican's Nest Restaurant, at 566 N. River St. in Rochester, as the rising waters from Lake Ontario flood into the mouth of the Genesee River and flood out the popular restaurant on Friday. Boards have been taken out on the ends of each dock to help water pass through it as it continues to rise.(Photo: SHAWN DOWD/@sdowdphoto/STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER)

Tim Berdych, with Christian Brothers Concrete Construction Company of Rochester, checks on a large water leak in a basement wall at 565 Edgemere Drive in Greece on May 5, 2017.(Photo: SHAWN DOWD/@sdowdphoto/, STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER)

Bob Jones tosses sandbags as fast as he can near his lakefront house on Sandy Harbor Drive in Hamlin. The cottage was boarded up a couple of days ago to protect it from the waves.(Photo: CARLOS ORTIZ/@cfortiz_dandc/staff photographer)

Tim Berdych, with Christian Brothers Concrete Construction Company of Rochester, at work on a flooded home at 565 Edgemere Drive in Greece on May 5, 2017. "There's a sidewalk under here someplace," he said.(Photo: SHAWN DOWD/@sdowdphoto/, STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER)

Bob Jones fills sandbags in a hurry as he and his wife Judy try to protect their lakefront house on Sandy Harbor Drive in Hamlin. They both took a day off from work to do this and came up with a system for filling the bags.(Photo: CARLOS ORTIZ/@cfortiz_dandc/staff photographer)

Tim Berdych, with Christian Brothers Concrete Construction Company of Rochester, at work on a flooded home at 565 Edgemere Drive in Greece on May 5, 2017.(Photo: SHAWN DOWD/@sdowdphoto/, STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER)

Bob Jones carries sandbags to protect his lakefront house at Sandy Harbor Drive in Hamlin. His wife Judy was helping him fill the sandbags, something they both worked on after taking a day off.(Photo: CARLOS ORTIZ, @cfortiz_dandc/staff photographer)

Rick Davis looks down at the portion of land he lost due to Lake Ontario's high water levels and the heavy rains at his lakefront property in Hamlin.(Photo: CARLOS ORTIZ, @cfortiz_dandc/staff photographer)

Sam Schell, who lives on Edgemere Drive in Greece, usually has about 3 to 5 feet of beach in the summer. However due to rising lake levels, the waves are now up to her back porch.(Photo: OLIVIA LOPEZ, @olopez4/staff photographer)

Water has crawled into the Mayer's Marina grounds in Webster which can be seen here during a press conference regarding response efforts to flooding along Lake Ontario.(Photo: CARLOS ORTIZ / @cfortiz_dandc/staff photographer)

Fran Beth folds back the tarp holding sand that was given to her by the Town of Webster and which she will use to fill sandbags to prevent flooding at her home in Webster. The levels of water have been rising around her house which is down the road from Marge's Lakeside Inn on the Irondequoit side of the Irondequoit Bay Outlet Bridge.(Photo: CARLOS ORTIZ / @cfortiz_dandc/staff photographer)

Allison Mayer, owner of Mayer's Marina, shows photos of damage on her phone to Irondequoit Town Supervisor David Seeley and left, Webster Town Supervisor Ron Nesbitt at her business location.(Photo: CARLOS ORTIZ / @cfortiz_dandc/staff photographer)

Irondequoit Creek is running fast and overflowing in some areas in April. The creek is close to overflowing its bank in this area at Channing H. Philbrick Park.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/@tyee23/File photo)

Irondequoit Creek is running fast and overflowing in some areas. At Channing H. Philbrick Park it rose out of the banks in one area and headed towards a walking trail.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

Irondequoit Creek is running fast and overflowing in Panorama Plaza area. Zachary Mellow, an employee at Brook Hill Village, after telling the driver to stay to the left of the yellow lines, watches as it drives through the pooling water.(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE/ @tyee23/staff photographer)

That's because in the past, the board had more freedom to intervene when it felt there was a risk the water might rise too high or fall too low. Typically, IJC technical adviser Bill Werick said, this included lowering the lake somewhat in the fall as a hedge against the possibility of an unduly wet spring.

Plan 2014 takes a different approach.

"If all you’re concerned about is flooding on the south shore, there’s no question you want to lower the lake all you can in the fall. Of course, that’s not all you’re concerned about," Werick said. "Some people are boaters, some are bird-watchers."

The new plan does react to changes in lake levels or the amount of water inflow, but these reactions are built in and controlled by the plans' algorithms.

"Because it’s based on tests run with 50,000 years of possible flooding situations, the plan automatically plays all of these odds out and makes high releases when there is a threat of flooding," said Werick, who is the expert that described high fall levels as the plan's Achilles' heel.

Plan 2014 still allows the board to intervene, but only when the water has already risen to near flood levels.

Sciremammano laments the loss of control, saying the new plan's algorithms tolerate high water in the way the board never did.

"These medium highs in the spring and fall — the plan is designed to allow that to happen, to not have the board intervene to bring it back closer to the average," he said.

And that increases the chances that unusually heavy precipitation could quickly push levels upward to the point that property is at risk.

IJC officials insist their studies found the new plan would almost never contribute to serious flooding, which they say has historically been due solely to rainfall, snow melt and river flow.

Sciremammano, though, doesn't agree. He thinks the medium-high water encouraged by Plan 2014 leaves too little room for error and will lead to levels high enough to damage property much more often than has been the case in the past.

Will next spring be one of those occasions? There is no way to know.

As Sciremammano noted, much depends on the winter and spring weather, and lake-level regulators have learned that long-term weather forecasts are unreliable.

Residents on Edgemere Drive were effected by high Lake Ontario levels and winds whipping the lake towards their property. Portions of this street were submerged under water as well as homes flooded by both the lake and Round Pond.

(Photo: Tina MacIntyre-Yee, Max Schulte )

Ditch Plan 2014, or change it?

Withdrawing Plan 2014 and replacing it with something else — some want the old plan restored, even though many shoreline residents complained about it constantly, too — would be, at a minimum, difficult and time-consuming.

As proponents often point out, 16 years of study, argument and deliberation led up to adoption of Plan 2014. Writing a new plan could take nearly as long.

And any plan requires a majority vote of the six commissioners; given that the U.S. and Canada each seat three commissioners, that effectively means the two nations must agree on any change.

President Trump intends to nominate three new IJC commissioners relatively soon, according to statements by U.S. Rep. Chris Collins, R-Clarence, Erie County, who said he provided the White House with the candidates' names.

The White House press office has declined to comment on Collins' assertions.

Even if the U.S. seats three new commissioners who are sympathetic toward the anti-Plan 2014 crowd, the plan wouldn't change until a replacement is agreed upon and both nations' governments signed off.

Altering Plan 2014 is a different story.

With the study of the plan's tempestuous first year now under way by an IJC adaptive management committee, some parties are already lobbying to restore to the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence board some of the ability it lost to deviate from the plan more often.

While it remains to be seen what recommendations will emerge, Werick, who is a member of the committee, said no one should expect too much.

"I can tell you that while you might see some improvements, they are not the kind of improvements you are going to notice at your house," he said.

SORR@GANNETT.COM

MMCDERMOTT@GANNETT.COM

Monroe renews effort to qualify for FEMA aid

Monroe County, which was surprisingly omitted from a recent presidential disaster declaration for parts of the flooded Lake Ontario shoreline, has renewed efforts to be included.

New York state officials said Monroe was left out because its emergency managers didn't complete a necessary damage assessment and then withdrew from the assessment process before it was concluded. Damage to public property and government-response spending must reach a predetermined threshold in order for a given county to be included in a disaster declaration.

Which side is right remains undetermined, but county spokesman Jesse Sleezer said Tuesday that state emergency-management staff returned to Monroe County this week to resume the assessment. Federal and county staff are assisting, he said.

He said the assessment was on track to be completed by week's end and submitted to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which will determine if damage totals from Monroe County reached the necessary threshold of $2.69 million.

If Monroe doesn't qualify, local government agencies would miss out on federal reimbursement for hundreds of thousands of dollars in flood-response spending.