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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was virtually unchanged at –1.28 in September
compared with an upward revised value of –1.30 in August. The September index reflects
sharp declines in consumer spending and disposable income that were offset by somewhat
less weakness in manufacturing employment. The three-month moving average index,
CFNAI-MA3, was –0.95 in September, up from –1.02 in August. September marked the
fifteenth consecutive month that the CFNAI-MA3 was below zero, an indication of how long
the national economy has been growing below trend. Index values below zero signal reduced
inflationary pressures over the coming year.