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New Ohio Poll shows Obama up Five

Quinnipiac poll of 1,367 LV from 9/5 - 9/9

A new Quinnipiac poll in today’s Cincinnati Enquirer shows Obama up 49-44 over McCain. A few highlights(Edited to show 5 point lead instead of 3):

· The poll was of 1,367 likely voters taken from 9/5 (Friday) – 9/9 (Tuesday).

· McCain wins over 34 years old by a few points, but loses the 18-34 vote by 64-33%. Will the “Youth Vote” materialize?

· They asked what chance do you have of changing your vote, and 15% overall said they might change their vote. McCain’s supporters said their minds were made up more often (85%) than Obama’s (81%).

· Both Obama and McCain had about the same margins within their party (87-10 for Obama, 86-10 for McCain), and McCain leads the independents (47-43). This, of course, means that there were more Democrats polled. Does that mean that there are more Democrats in Ohio? I don’t know. Bush won fairly easily (>100,000), but Strickland trounced Blackwell after the Taft Devolution of the Ohio GOP. It seems that if McCain wins independents by 4 points, a 5 point overall deficit is too high. I live in the Cincinnati suburbs and work downtown, so I see both groups, and just don’t see how McCain wins independents by 4 points, but loses the race overall. A 5 point loss by McCain would be a 7.5 point swing from Bush / Kerry.

· Clinton primary voters are voting for Obama at a 65-28 rate.

· Men are tied at 47, women are voting for Obama at a 52-42 clip.

A FOX/Rasmussen poll taken on 9/7 (Sunday) of 500 LV had McCain up 7!!! That’s a pretty big swing, since the 9/7 poll was dead in the middle of the Quinnipiac poll. I think this race is close, but that McCain is probably up a point or two. Hillary changes thing here, as much as anywhere, I believe.