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Thursday, March 6, 2014

Alvarez-Angulo: Keys to the Fight

Saturday
marks the beginning of big-fight season as Saul "Canelo" Alvarez
(42-1-1, 30 KOs) faces Alfredo "El Perro" Angulo (22-3, 18 KOs) at
the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. This matchup figures to include lots of fireworks
as both Mexican junior middleweights have heavy hands and a history of putting their opponents on the canvas. Both fighters are also looking to
regroup after a recent loss. Alvarez was thoroughly outboxed by pound-for-pound
king Floyd Mayweather in September while Angulo turned his back to Erislandy
Lara after suffering an eye injury, leading to a TKO loss.

The
stakes are high as Alvarez looks to establish himself as pay per view
attraction and Angulo attempts to rise towards the top of junior middleweight
division, a plateau he has yet to reach in his professional boxing career. Read
below for the keys to the fight. My prediction will be at the end of the
article.

1. Will
Either Boxer Have A Lingering Effect From His Last Fight?

Angulo
was having quite a bit of success against Lara, knocking him down twice, before the fight ended in the
10th round. Prior to that final frame, Angulo was up three points on one card and down by one point on the other two.
Overall, he was extremely competitive against one of the toughest style
matchups in the division. On paper, Lara had significant hand and foot speed advantages but Angulo fought him very well.

There
were lots of encouraging signs for Angulo in that fight. He was able to corral
an excellent mover. In addition, long gone were the days of Angulo trying to
win with reckless aggression. His shots were purposeful and well placed. His
footwork (helped by trainer Virgil Hunter) was much improved. And perhaps most
importantly, he found an appropriate pace and punch volume in the fight; he was
able to apply effective pressure without punching himself out or flagging in
the later rounds.

However,
eye injuries are serious business. Angulo's left eye swelled to almost
grotesque proportions immediately after the final shot in the 10th round. You
can bet that Alvarez will test the eye throughout the fight. Perhaps some
residual scar tissue will open up. Maybe Angulo, not a defensive master by any
stretch, won't be able to see shots coming as well as he once did. Angulo's eye could be a significant factor on fight night.

As for
Alvarez, it will be interesting to see if he has regained his confidence in the
ring after facing Mayweather. Alvarez spent much of his last fight failing to
pull the trigger and falling meekly to a much better boxer. Fortunately for
Alvarez, the fight with Angulo doesn't figure to be an overly cerebral affair
and Angulo will be there to be hit. Hopefully Alvarez's muscle memory and
experience will kick in early in the fight. If he does start out tentatively,
he could be in for serious trouble as El Perro will be hounding him from the
opening bell.

2. Chins.

Angulo
has proven to have a very sturdy beard. He has fought noted punchers such as
Lara, James Kirkland and Kermit Cintron (back when Cintron could still really
punch, the version of Cintron that faced Alvarez much later was just a shell of his former
self). Although Angulo was knocked down by Kirkland, it was a classic
example of a fighter punching himself out. Angulo had Kirkland almost ready to
go and threw everything he had in the first round of that fight. Kirkland was able to respond and
bludgeoned an exhausted and depleted Angulo later in the frame. Angulo hit the
canvas and somehow survived until the sixth round on guts, but he was
essentially done by the end of the first. Throughout the rest of Angulo's
career, his chin has been outstanding.

Scrolling
through Alvarez's record, one thing you won't notice is a litany of punchers on
his resume. In 2010, he was hurt badly in the first round against an undersized
opponent, Jose Cotto. Alvarez rallied to win that fight convincingly, but I
think that the Cotto bout spooked his handlers. What followed in Canelo's
career were matchups against light hitters (Matthew Hatton, Carlos Baldomir and
Austin Trout) or undersized guys (Mayweather, Josesito Lopez, Alfonso Gomez and
Hatton again). Thus, we really don't know much about Alvarez's chin. He's never
faced a real junior middleweight puncher. Make no mistake; Angulo will test
Alvarez's beard in the fight. Alvarez will have to limit and withstand Angulo's power punches to win the fight.

3.
Canelo's Combinations Or Angulo's Single Shots?

Canelo is
not necessarily a one-punch knockout puncher. Although he does possess the
skills to drop opponents with single shots (the Trout fight is an excellent
example of this), more frequently he imposes his power by landing three, four
and five-punch combinations. Alvarez's power is enhanced by his expert punch
placement and untraditional punch sequences. He'll throw lead uppercuts from
distance or land with four types of punches during a combination. Unlike
Mayweather, Angulo will play to these strengths of Alvarez. He
will be right in front of Alvarez and he often has a disdain for defense.

Angulo
has the power to end any fight with one punch. And although Alvarez has the
foot speed advantage in this matchup, Alvarez will certainly be able to connect at
points throughout the fight. Angulo probably won't have the ability to land
many combinations, but he may not need to in order to win.

4. Can
Angulo Get To Alvarez's Body?

As a
corollary to Alvarez's lack of experience against punchers, he's really never
faced anyone at the top level who consistently went to his body. Angulo has a
nasty left hook to the body and going downstairs against Alvarez will be an
invaluable strategy to slowing down the better mover.

Most
likely, Alvarez will try to make this a boxing match. Using his superior
coordination and ability to box and slug from the outside, Alvarez will want to fight in the center of the ring. Angulo will have to sell out to
get to the body, eating a few shots to get there, but the rewards may very well
be worth the price he pays. If Angulo can't get to Alvarez's body, then most
likely Alvarez will have controlled the distance and range of the fight, an
extremely good barometer for a Canelo win.

5. The
Corners.

I keep
thinking that if Virgil Hunter can devise a game plan where Angulo can get to
Erislandy Lara, a tricky boxer with the best footwork in the division, then he can
put his fighter in a position to hurt Alvarez. In addition, Alvarez has displayed
some endurance problems throughout his career; I'm sure that Hunter, whose most
notable boxer is Andre Ward, can find a way to exploit that deficiency.

To say I
was disappointed in Eddy Reynoso's corner work during the Mayweather bout would
be a massive understatement. Reynoso looked befuddled during the fight and was
unable to formulate or communicate advice to Alvarez to help turn the tide
of the match. It's not just that Mayweather was the better fighter in the ring
that night; he also had the far superior corner.

If
Alvarez hits the canvas early in the fight against Angulo, does Reynoso have
the ability to settle his charge and find a way back into the fight? If Canelo
isn't responding well to Angulo's pace and pressure, what will Reynoso tell him
so that he can buy time in the ring? In short, Angulo has a huge
advantage in the corner for this fight and if there is a significant strategic
adjustment to make during the match, you can bet that Hunter will be the one to
make it.

Prediction:

I think
that this fight will be talked about for a long time. I see potential scenarios
where both fighters hit the canvas and/or multiple knockdowns occur during the
fight. I expect Alvarez to control many of the rounds with his boxing skills,
subtle movement and superior combinations, but it is his job to limit Angulo's
flurries. In addition, both fighters have been cut in recent bouts and a
stoppage caused by cuts (either via butt or punch) is certainly possible.

I am banking on Hunter to help find a way for Angulo to win the fight. Angulo might
be down on the cards early; he might be sprawled out on the canvas
at a given point, but I believe in Angulo's power and Hunter's ability. I also have significant questions
about Alvarez's conditioning and chin. Ultimately, I see Angulo coming from
behind to knock out a tiring Alvarez in an epic performance.

1 comment:

In agreement, but .....Angulo is fighting to make a name for himsefl again and to get those big money fights after this. Canelo is hungrier than ever due to being humiliated and disgraced by Mayweather so he will come to win 100%. Tough fight to call so I will go 50/50.