Bid to track Gippsland climate risk

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The State Government has commissioned
the CSIRO to provide
it with the most accurate predictions
available of the likely
impact of climate change on
Gippsland's coastline, with concerns
that its famous lakes could
be threatened by rising sea
levels.

Gippsland Coastal Board
executive director Brett Millington
said the $110,000 study,
which began in July, was important
because recent research indicated
Gippsland was going to
become hotter by an average of
as much five degrees over the
next 70 years, leading to more
extreme weather.

He said the CSIRO study,
which is not due to be completed
until next June, would provide
accurate predictions of when the
sea level was expected to rise
and how it would affect the
nearby lakes.

"There's no doubt parts of the
lakes will be vulnerable to flooding
because of storm surges," he
said. "At the moment, they are
protected by a series of sand
dunes that prevent the coast
from entering the lakes."

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The coastal board's 2002-03
annual report said the sea level
along the Gippsland coast could
rise by between three and 14
centimetres by 2050.

Mr Millington said that as
well as altering the environment,
climate change was likely to
affect the region socially and
economically.

The lakes are a major tourist
drawcard and generate millions
of dollars in economic activity
each year. They have recently
been harmed by Melbourne's
reliance on the Thomson River,
which flows to the lakes, to provide
a secure water supply, as
well as an influx of nutrients
from Gippsland farms.

Environment Minister John
Thwaites earlier this year
released research that showed
average temperatures in Gippsland
could rise by between
0.7 degrees and five degrees by
2070.

The research, also conducted
by the CSIRO for the Government,
showed the regular frosts
that farmers rely upon for budburst
could all but disappear in
coming decades.

Bushfire danger was predicted
to increase greatly due to
a possible fourfold increase in
the number of summer days
above 35 degrees.

Land subsidence is also providing
a threat to the Gippsland
coast and lakes. The problem is
thought to be caused by the
removal of water from aquifers.

It could be a big problem for
Gippsland, where oil and gas
operators in Bass Strait, Latrobe
Valley power companies and
irrigators remove 130,000
megalitres a year from the
Latrobe aquifer.

A 1998 state government
report concluded that the risk of
subsidence in Gippsland was difficult
to predict. The report said
extreme subsidence could lead to
the Gippsland coastline sinking
by as much as four metres by
2070. But it also said the coastline
could sink by as little as nine
centimetres.

The Government announced
last November a $314,000, fouryear
study of the risk of subsidence
in Gippsland, in an attempt
to ease community concerns.

"There has been a lot of
speculation about whether or not
coal mining, irrigation and
offshore petroleum extraction
activities have led to subsidence
in the area, although no hard evidence
has ever been identified,"
Energy Minister Theo Theophanous
said.

The Age is holding a forum on the
environment and coastal protection in
Geelong this Wednesday at 6pm. Speakers
include John Thwaites, Phil Honeywood,
Ageenvironment reporter Melissa
Fyfe and a panel of experts. Deakin University
(Waterfront campus), COSTA
Theatre, 1 Gheringhap Street, Geelong. For
bookings phone 9596 8881 or visit
www.150.theage.com.au