The Coming Franco-German Bust-Up

The partnership at the center of European integration is unraveling just when Euroskeptic forces are coming together. If French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel cannot start rebuilding the political center, next year's European Parliament election will produce the biggest victory yet for anti-EU populists.

BERLIN – The politics of Brexit is descending into chaos. The European Union is fragmenting into northern, southern, eastern, and western tribes. And now the Franco-German marriage at the center of the European project is in danger of falling apart.

In May 2017, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel and newly elected French President Emmanuel Macron met for the first time, many hoped for a renewal of vows. Crowds of pro-European well-wishers urged them on. Macron, the fresh-faced reformer, seemed to have a Midas-like political touch. And Merkel was at the height of her power on the international stage, having been deemed the new “leader of the free world,” supplanting the “very stable genius” in the White House, Donald Trump.

Quoting the German author Hermann Hesse, Merkel observed that, “There is magic in every beginning,” but added a caveat: “The magic lasts only when there are results.” Eighteen months later, the magic most certainly has not lasted. Merkel has now handed over the leadership of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and will not seek another term as chancellor. And Macron, far from walking on water, has been trying not to drown in a sea of yellow-vested protesters.

As both leaders’ political stars have waned, so, too, have the prospects for a renewed Franco-German relationship. Just when Macron was placing his hopes in Merkel’s power to lead at the European level, her grip on domestic power was slipping. After the German federal election in September 2017, Merkel struggled for six months to form a government. She did not want to form a minority government, and the remaining opposition parties didn’t particularly want to govern with her.

But the real damage to Merkel’s power came from within. Leading politicians in the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have attacked Merkel’s decision to welcome Syrian refugees in 2015, and even cozied up to some of her sworn enemies, not least Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, and Matteo Salvini, the Italian deputy prime minister and interior minister. These populists and their CSU sympathizers have used immigration as a wedge issue to attack Merkel.

Macron, meanwhile, has sought to make French renewal synonymous with European renewal. Since coming to power, he has pursued a new grand bargain with Germany. In exchange for France finally getting a grip on its finances and reforming its public sector and labor market, Germany would back Macron’s proposals to deepen EU and eurozone integration, including a joint eurozone budget, an EU finance ministry, and more unified foreign and defense policies.

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Though Merkel recently agreed to a joint budget in principle, many in France now suspect that Macron has been duped. Early in his presidency, he introduced a series of unpopular measures, slashing the wealth tax and cutting social benefits. More recently, he rolled out a fuel-tax increase to keep this year’s deficit below 3% of GDP, in the process unleashing the sea of yellow vests now laying siege to his administration.

In response, Germany has offered Macron essentially nothing. It has dragged its feet on completing a banking union and introducing eurozone investment bonds, and has paid only lip service to the idea of a joint budget. Even on defense policy, which could serve as a stand-in for meaningful economic reforms, Germany has put up resistance, watering down EU proposals for an “avant-garde” grouping and balking at Macron’s proposed European Intervention Initiative (EI2).

The next few months will almost certainly deliver more disappointments for Macron, and possibly even a Franco-German bust-up. After all, at a recent meeting of EU finance ministers, Germany struck yet another blow against Macron by watering down his proposal for a new digital tax on tech giants such as Google and Facebook. Though the proposal had broad support, the Germans worried that the US would retaliate against their auto industry.

Moreover, there is speculation that the Bundeswehr will replace its outdated Tornado fighter planes with American F-35s instead of a European-made equivalent. With the German Air Force already indicating that the F-35 is its preferred choice, Airbus CEO Dirk Hoke recently warned that, “As soon as Germany becomes a F-35 nation, all cooperation with France on combat jet issues will die.”

France and Germany are falling out just when anti-European forces are coming together. With an eye toward the European Parliament election in May, Orbán and Salvini are actively working to create a populist federation that includes both the anti-austerity left and the anti-immigrant right. Their goal is to capture at least a third of parliamentary seats, as well as a blocking minority on the European Council.

The Euroskeptics’ main opponents are not politicians in their own countries, but rather Macron and Merkel. And the problem for Macron and Merkel is that they cannot necessarily count on French and German voters to support them in leading EU reforms. Indeed, far from seeing Merkel as a brake on deeper integration, many Germans regard her as overly pro-European. As for Macron, he may be the most pro-European French president in decades, but he could find himself in the position of having to run against EU budget rules that are standing in the way of his domestic reforms.

The danger now is that Macron and Merkel will be lured into singing along to Salvini and Orbán’s tune. Their task is to avoid that trap and find a way to reinvent the political center, before it is too late.

Mark Leonard fears that the Franco-German “marriage” would soon break up, dealing a blow to the European project. Despite cordial relations between Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel, such a bust-up could still be likely, because both leaders have enormous obstacles to overcome at home. In recent year the rise of populist forces has polarised their countries and undermined their leadership. The author urges Macron and Merkel to strengthen the “political center” ahead of next year’s European Parliament election. Their failure to do so will only enable Eurosceptic populist parties to win big. The problem is that in Germany, Merkel’s centre-right party and its centre left coalition party had lost ground to the far left and far right. Macron may try to use the European elections to claim the mantle of Europe’s leader and revive his standing at home. As the EU is in need of an overhaul, Macron has ambitious plans for reform and has been counting on cooperation from Germany, France's closest ally, to see those plans come to fruition. Unfortunately he meets resistance. While Germany is no doubt pro-EU, Merkel is under domestic pressure to push back against economic reforms that could infuriate German taxpayers. And her party is seeking to restrict some of his proposals. Macron and Merkel do not always agree on certain issues. The sticking point is economic integration, and in particular, Macron's bid to turn the Eurozone's current rescue fund into a full-blown European Monetary Fund, modeled on the International Monetary Fund, as a vehicle to manoeuvre another sovereign debt crisis within the monetary union. But Germany and France disagree on how it should work.Germany favours a fund available for struggling Eurozone member states, but only under strict conditions. Macron would like a more flexible model that shares more risk, but gives more firepower to EU institutions to help in crises. Yet Berlin doubts France’s ability to boost its economy, bring down unemployment and reduce its excessive budget deficit. The Germans accuse France of blaming their intransigence for failing to get its house in order and obey basic EU rules. Despite Macron’s “unpopular measures” last year to improve France’s finances and reform public sector and labour market, the author says Merkel had not offered anything in return, like backing his “proposals to deepen EU and eurozone integration, including a joint eurozone budget, an EU finance ministry, and more unified foreign and defense policies.” This left many in France to “suspect that Macron has been duped.” The author points out their failure to complete a banking union and introduce eurozone investment bonds, and Merkel’s “lip service to the idea of a joint budget. Even on defense policy, which could serve as a stand-in for meaningful economic reforms, Germany has put up resistance, watering down EU proposals for an ‘avant-garde’ grouping and balking at Macron’s proposed European Intervention Initiative (EI2).” Many do not see light at the end of the tunnel. If France and Germany fail to unite and stand up to the anti-EU forces, while singing along to Italy’s and Hungary’s tune, there could be a “populist federation” that would change the bloc’s political direction, to the detriment of its liberal values that have guided the EU for seven decades and provided for the Continent’s stability and prosperity.

The German Constitution says : The power (sovereignty ) originates with the people. No politician, elected for a 4-year term, has any authority whatsoever to permanently delegate, and irreversible at that, any of the power to anybody, the least to an appointed functionary appointed by himself and a bunch of other heads of government. This is not how democracy works. Neither Mr. Macron, nor Mrs. Merkel, seem to have any respect for democratic legitimacy and parliamentary control. If they had, they would have started to work on a constitutional set-up for EU-27 that assures this very legitimacy and parliamentary control without smoke screens. They have not. Both will be replaced before too long.

Whatever you think of mrs. Merkel's leadership or mrs AKK's talents. The facts are that she will be governing Germany for 16 years. When AKK, the mini Merkel, succeed to become Chanceller, mrs. Merkel has had control over Germany for 20 years. That is very a long time in a democracy, which is also the most influential EU member. The latter means that Germany will increasingly be expected to address international issues that the EU faces.

Yes, Mrs. Merkel may govern for 16 years. But, she has halved her party and 2017 was the worst election result for the CDU since 1949. Furthermore, three of the four legislative terms are a so-called 'grand coalition' which is tantamount to state capture by the two parties who should be in a competitive position in parliament. Representative democracy is hollowed out. It is nothing but opportunistic power politics against the interest of the people, the country and the EU.

The irony of it all is that those same persons, that were empowered by the people to look after them, to protect their rights and interests, are using the security and military forces against the same people that voted for them and put them in position of power in the first place. These same forces (military or otherwise) are meant to protect the citizens and their countries from criminals and against "external aggressors" and NOT against the ones (the citizens) that they are meant to protect under the "constitution". The excessive use of force, and in some cases the use of live ammunition, against unarmed citizens and this to subdue them and to subdue their basic "rights of expression", is an abuse of authority, can be classified as criminal and is punishable by law.

The author writes: ...Their task ( Macron and Merkel) … find a way to reinvent the political center....He is right. Both have not served their voters well.In France people do not see their income grow or even see it decline.In Germany, and in the EU, mrs. Merkel lost her credibility by opening the borders for more than a million immigrants. She thereby breached EU laws and neglected her EU colleagues. On top of that she tried to force other members to take over the immigrants.To restore confidence there is no other solution than meeting the demand of the voters.

The direction the EU is heading for should be made clear. Macron and Juncker are along various routes attempting to turn the EU into a superstate ( Federation, bloc ). EU army, EU budget, Transfer of payments and risks, etc,.However most people in Germany and other EU countries do not want that. For a good reason.It means that control over their life and their money is being transferred to Brussels, a bureaucracy lacking transparancy and democracy. The EU needs a feasable goal that is shared by all, which sets limits on further integration.

The EU is Union of 27 sovereign members. The Franco-German axis makes the EU a bilateral Union with 25 vasal members. In terms of population: France has 15 % and Germany 19 % of the EU population. In Gross National Income of the Eurozone France has 22 % and Germany 30 %.That means that Germany is in a logical position to play a leading role in the EU.This may make smaller EU members feel less comfortabel.Also 26 members of the EU have no influence on the election of the German chancellor.The EU has a President, these days that is mr. Tusk, who is presiding over the EU Council.Decisionmaking in the EU, which is a very complex organization, could be improved by clarifying everyones role and position other than just operating on the basis of an axis.How else can have voters have trust in the EU ?

Another issue that frustrates the people in the EU is the uncontrolled and unlimited immigration from EU members as well as from outside the EU.Massive immigration in the host countries leads to a loss of cohesion, housing shortage, depletion of social funds, constraints in social services, increase in crime and a slowdown of economic growth. In some cities the time for social housing has increased from 10 to 20 years.How can people believe that the EU is so great for them ?

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