An early polling glance at N.J. Democrats’ 2013 gubernatorial field

Less than six weeks until the electoral warm-up act that is the presidential race finally yields the stage, allowing us here in New Jersey to focus on the main event — the 2013 governor’s race.

Assuming Gov. Chris Christie runs for a second term, Democrats will be seeking a candidate who can knock off an incumbent sporting a 55 percent approval rating among registered voters, according to the latest Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll. If President Barack Obama wins re-election, the race might also gain even more national attention than usual, as Christie would be a potential GOP aspirant for the open White House seat in 2016 — making the race a first heat in those primaries, if Democrats in D.C. attempt to knock out a contender by undercutting his electability argument back home.

The Monmouth/APP survey dipped a toe in that pool by asking New Jerseyans about their general impressions for nine Democrats. Most are seen as possible candidates; Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver hasn’t made those types of noises but was included because she’s one of the state’s political leaders. Results are below; the numbers represent each person’s total familiarity, favorable rating, unfavorable rating and net rating among registered voters. They’re sorted by total familiarity.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker: 62%, 49%, 13%, +36

Former Gov. Richard Codey: 48%, 34%, 14%, +20

Senate President Stephen Sweeney: 35%, 19%, 16%, +3

U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone Jr: 25%, 17%, 8%, +9

Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver: 24%, 14%, 10%, +4

State Senator Barbara Buono: 18%, 11%, 7%, +4

Assemblyman Louis Greenwald: 14%, 7%, 7%, 0

Assemblyman John Wisniewski: 13%, 8%, 5%, +3

Elizabeth Mayor Chris Bollwage: 10%, 6%, 4%, +2

(Sample size: 715 RV, error margin +/-3.7%)

“There’s probably three people that can walk into this race right now and build name recognition really quickly, and that’s Booker, Codey and Sweeney. Everybody else has to work a lot harder,” Monmouth poll director Patrick Murray said. “And Booker and Codey walk in with positive name recognition, which is what Christie did four years ago. If you look at that as the precedent, then Booker and Codey are clearly the ones who are best placed to make a strong run of this. Of course, the opposite side being that Chris Christie is no Jon Corzine.”

In mid-2008, Christie — then midway through his seventh year as U.S. Attorney for New Jersey — was familiar to 4-in-10 voters, netting a +21 rating with 30% seeing him favorably and 9 percent unfavorably, Murray said. Corzine at that time had a -1 net rating; Christie today has a net rating of +20.

Murray said Booker’s name recognition among the electorate surpasses even U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez in the midst of his re-election campaign. Although slightly more poll respondents offered a favorability assessment about Menendez earlier in the same survey, that question came only after they’d been asked about their choice between Menendez and Republican nominee Joe Kyrillos in the U.S. Senate race. Booker’s name was a more generic identification, though he had been described as the Newark mayor.

Codey is in the state Senate and has been a state lawmaker since 1974. He gained a statewide following when he served as governor for 14 months between 2004 to 2006, when he was Senate president at the time Gov. Jim McGreevey resigned. (Those were the days before New Jersey added a lieutenant governor.) Codey’s numbers aren’t as strong as they were six years ago, when 53 percent of voters held a favorable view of him and 17 percent an unfavorable one. But Murray thinks that slide would quickly reverse if Codey decided to get into the race.

“This is really out of sight, out of mind. If he puts himself back into the news, those numbers will go up fairly quickly, as people remember who he was and what he did,” Murray said. “It’s still positive. His negative numbers have not gone up at all. His positive numbers have gone down as people simply forget who he was and what he did.”

The numbers above were the candidates’ ratings among all registered voters, including Republicans and independents who couldn’t vote in the Democrats’ primary next June unless they changed their voter registration. So here are the numbers among Democrats:

Newark Mayor Cory Booker: 66%, 57%, 9%, +48

Former Gov. Richard Codey: 46%, 36%, 10%, +26

Senate President Stephen Sweeney: 34%, 20%, 14%, +6

U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone Jr: 27%, 18%, 9%, +9

Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver: 25%, 19%, 6%, +13

State Senator Barbara Buono: 22%, 15%, 7%, +8

Assemblyman John Wisniewski: 17%, 10%, 7%, +3

Assemblyman Louis Greenwald: 16%, 10%, 6%, +4

Elizabeth Mayor Chris Bollwage: 13%, 8%, 5%, +3

(Sample size: 298 Dems, error margin +/-5.7%)

Those numbers mark a starting point, not an endpoint — for both the early leaders in the name-recognition field and those starting more anonymously.

“Certainly we’d be looking at name recognition for all those folks in that second tier to go up, as well as the top tier,” Murray said. “The question is: Do their favorables go up more? Are they on more equal footing as favorables? Because right now, they’re not.”

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About Michael Symons

Michael Symons has covered seven governors while working in Gannett's Statehouse Bureau -- a stint which actually only stretches back to 2000, but the door revolves quickly in New Jersey politics. He's co-author of the biography "Chris Christie: The Inside Story of His Rise to Power."

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About the Authors

Bob JordanBob Jordan has covered state, county and muncipal governments for the past 10 years. He has also covered the gaming industry and has been a sports team beat writer for NHL, NBA and major league baseball teams.E-mail Bob

John SchoonejongenJohn Schoonejongen is state editor for Gannett New Jersey newspapers. He has reported and edited at New Jersey newspapers from Salem County to Passaic County, writing about everything from state politics to lost pigs on the Delaware Memorial Bridge. Born in Camden County, he still speaks with a southern New Jersey accent, much to his wife's annoyance.E-mail John

Michael SymonsMichael Symons has covered seven governors while working in Gannett's Statehouse Bureau -- a stint which actually only stretches back to 2000, but the door revolves quickly in New Jersey politics. He's co-author of the biography "Chris Christie: The Inside Story of His Rise to Power."E-mail Michael