Hurricane Katrina recovery assessed five years out

Nearly five years after Hurricane Katrina -- and against the backdrop of a national recession and a massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico -- the New Orleans region is poised to rebuild communities that are safer, more sustainable and more economically robust than before the storm, an analysis released today by a partnership of local and national think tanks shows.

View full sizeScott Threlkeld, The Times-Picayune archiveBob and Lucy McClure's Salt Bayou home was washed a quarter mile by Hurricane Katrina. It was photographed Sept. 22, 2005.

Reaching that goal, however, will require reversing a number of troubling trends that continue to retard the region's progress, including reliance on a handful of stagnant industries, a wide gap between the rich and poor, and a high crime rate, according to The New Orleans Index at Five, a project of the Washington-based Brookings Institution and the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center.

The report, slated to be unveiled this morning at City Hall, serves as the latest iteration of the nonprofit groups' annual review of post-Katrina recovery indicators, including repopulation, housing costs, local tax collections and the reopening of schools.

But rather than comparing current conditions to the state of affairs on Aug. 29, 2005, the new report tries to take a longer view. It uses a slate of economic and social indicators to gauge the region's "resilience," or its ability to "absorb, minimize, bounce back from, or avert future crises."

The result is a nearly 200-page document that reflects a shift in perspective, one that coincidentally aligns with Mayor Mitch Landrieu's appeal in his May 3 inaugural address for residents to "stop thinking about rebuilding the city we were and start dreaming about the city we want to become."

View full sizeChris Granger, The Times-Picayune archiveHurricane Katrina's floodwaters brought fish to the stable area of the New Orleans Fairgrounds, photographed Sept. 26, 2005.

Also included are seven essays by local scholars on post-Katrina efforts to remake key elements of the regional fabric, from health care to criminal justice to flood protection. The report closes with a set of wide-ranging recommendations that could help metropolitan New Orleans thrive.

'Significant improvement'

Calling the index a key benchmark for measuring progress, Landrieu on Tuesday said he's pleased to see "significant improvement in the areas that matter most when you're trying to rebuild an American city," including education, health care, real estate values and the employment rate.

But the mayor said he also found the report "sobering," particularly its revelations about the dearth of skilled workers across the region. Landrieu said the report "reinforces the idea that we have to find ways to add value to our product, whether it's intellectual capital or raw material," adding that his administration has been trying to do just that by building the city's medical, tourism, digital technology, port and aerospace industries.

"There's no hiding from this," he said of the findings.

While the index delivers a healthy dose of optimism by highlighting factors that its authors say position the region for a better future -- from the emergence of influential civic groups to increasing entrepreneurship to sizable federal and philanthropic investments since the flood -- it also shines a harsh light on systemic challenges that historically have hindered progress.

Even as they cite improved wages, growing median household income and a drop in poverty since the storm, authors Amy Liu of Brookings and Allison Plyer caution that the rosier statistics result largely from the region's altered demographics, not farsighted leadership.

"The city and metro area (are) now home to a smaller share of low-income persons, nonwhite households, and households with children, many of whom were displaced, or chose to relocate after Katrina and have not returned," they write.

Troubling trends remain

Liu and Plyer also point out several "troubling trends that remain or were made worse" by Katrina, the recession and the oil spill. Chief among them: a regional economy that has relied on the same key sectors -- tourism, oil and gas, and shipping -- for the past three decades. During that time, the report notes, productivity has remained stagnant and the economy actually has shrunk compared with its 1980 level.

"The Deepwater Horizon disaster may further weaken legacy industry sectors -- especially tourism, oil and gas, and shipbuilding -- and exposes the vulnerability of these sectors to offshore or water-related catastrophes," the report states.

View full sizeTed Jackson, The Times-Picayune archiveDumaine Street at North Roman was photographed Sept. 16, 2005.

Other continuing challenges include the region's relatively small educated workforce, a high concentration of poor residents, and the fact that the median incomes of African-American and Hispanic households lag behind those of white households by 44 percent and 25 percent, respectively. The loss of coastal wetlands and high crime rates also hinder growth, the report states.

Among employment-related indicators that could signal an improving economy are the gradual emergence of "knowledge-based" jobs in high education and legal services, increasing entrepreneurship and relatively mild job losses during the recession compared with the national average, the report finds. Other bright spots include a jump in the number of nonprofits devoted to arts and culture, a dramatic drop in the number of blighted properties and the fact that more students now attend schools that meet state standards.

The authors also highlight the formation of civic and neighborhood groups that have helped press for government reforms such as consolidation of regional levee boards and the city's assessor offices, and a long-term plan for coastal restoration. "The real makeover may be in the new spirit of reform and enhanced self-reliance in the city that have been borne out of these crises," the pair writes in an overview of the index.