Weekend Estimates: X-Men Debuts to $80 Million Long Weekend

May 29th, 2016

The X-Men franchise has an impressive track record of Memorial Day openings, starting with X-Men: The Last Stand, which became the first film to gross $100 million over the 3-day part of the long weekend back in 2006. Days of Future Past grossed $90 million this weekend two years ago. In that context, a 3-day opening of $65 million for X-Men: Apocalypse is very much on the low end of expectations, although not too far behind the $72 million we were expecting earlier in the week. It’s a start that points towards a total domestic box office between $130 million and $150 million, even with the extra boost of another $15 million or so expected on Monday. That leaves the international markets with a lot to do, and the news overseas hasn’t been that great, with about $115 million in the bank after most markets opened last weekend.

The news is much worse for Alice Through the Looking Glass though, which is Disney’s first dud of the year. The fantasy sequel is in a different world to its predecessor, which debuted with $116 million back in 2010. This incarnation will pull in $28.1 million over three days, according to the studio—less than a quarter as much, in spite of opening on a better weekend. There’s really no way to spin that positively, and it’s a particular surprise, given that Disney has been on such a roll recently. The billion dollar performance of the first film always looked like something of an anomaly, given its fairly tepid reviews and audience popularity, and that seems to have translated into small audiences for the second outing.

Elsewhere on the chart, two indie films are posting good figures on expansion. Love & Friendship is projected to earn $2.5 million this weekend from 493 theaters for ninth place on the chart. The Lobster is set for $725,000 from 116 locations and will land somewhere around twelfth place. Both films look like good alternatives to overwrought studio offerings.