Thursday, March 10, 2011

1. All Big East Tournament games last 40 minutes, except when the referees are tired and just want to go home.

2. The Big East is going to get 11 bids, thanks to Marquette's win over West Virginia. The Golden Eagles are up to a 9 seed in today's bracket.

3. There's a very good chance that Villanova ends up the lowest seeded Big East team.

4. Colorado is the last Big XII bubble team left standing. Baylor and Nebraska are done after losing to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, respectively.

5. If the Buffs want to stay on the right side of the bubble, they probably need to beat Kansas State today - and they definitely need to play better than they did against Iowa State.

6. Long Island (from the Northeast) and Northern Colorado (from the Big Sky) are going dancing. Both are on the 15 line in today's bracket.

Thursday PreviewToday is shaping up to be the biggest day of Championship Week for about a dozen residents of Bubbleville. Just about every major conference has games going on that feature teams fighting for tourney bids.

We'll start in the ACC, where Boston College and Virginia Tech will look to avoid upsets that would surely ensure them of top seeds in the NIT. Both teams will need two wins this week to ensure that their name is called on Sunday, but both will first need to get by ACC bottom feeders Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.

The Big Ten conference tourney also gets started today and features Penn State and Michigan State both playing for their bubble lives. As long as the Spartans avoid an upset against Iowa, they should be safe. Penn State, meanwhile, will need to beat Indiana today and then take down Wisconsin tomorrow to get any serious consideration.

The SEC tourney kicks off today with Georgia looking to take care of Auburn, which would set up another bubble battle against Alabama for tomorrow. Tennessee also needs to take care of Arkansas (who already beat them earlier in the year) in order to avoid being talked about in the same breath as Virginia Tech's and Michigan State on the bubble.

A few weeks ago, it looked like there would be no bubble battles in the Pac-10 tourney. Since then, the bubble has gotten even softer and USC won five of six down the stretch to finish above .500 in conference. Washington State also picked up wins over Washington and USC to keep their name in the mix. USC faces off with Cal today (who can also climb onto the bubble with a win), and if the Trojans can pick up the win, they will be in decent shape for a bid. A win over Arizona on Friday would likely lock down their spot. If Washington State is able to take down Washington for the third time this season, that could create an interesting scenario and potentially put Washington in danger.

Elsewhere on the bubble, Colorado will attempt to take down Kansas State for the third time this season and, in the process, solidify their tourney bid. In the MWC, Colorado State faces off against New Mexico in what is an at-large elimination game. In C-USA action, UAB needs to avoid an upset at the hands of East Carolina to stay in the at-large mix. If they do that, we like their chances to go dancing. Memphis, meanwhile, opens up with Southern Miss. The Tigers will need a deep tourney run (probably a trip to the finals) to get at-lare worthy. Fans of bubble teams throughout the country need to root hard against UTEP this week. The Miners are playing the C-USA tourney on their home floor, where they went 16-2 this year, and are looking like the best bid-stealer candidate left out there.Bracket BreakdownLast Four InMichigan State, Alabama, Boston College, Colorado

I don't think six ACC teams is unreasonable from a "if the season were to end today" model. BC, Clemson, and Virginia Tech all seem like defensible picks for putting in or leaving out. From a projection standpoint, the BC/Clemson game looms large. Note that B101 has VT anc Clemson has their closest 2 that are currently out. If you were to add in VT anc Clemson, and take out Alabama and Colorado, then you could easily have 6 from the ACC. I don't think it will happen when all is said and done, though.

"3. There's a very good chance that Villanova ends up the lowest seeded Big East team."

Agree w/ re: Villanova.

Question though: How does that impact Tennessee? The 'Nova win was counted as one of their big resume-building wins, and now it is not looking so good. Does the Committee say "Nova was playing very well during the time that Tenn beat them, so still very solid win" or does that win lose its luster now that Nova is a possible double-digit seed?

Tenn is likely in no matter what happens in SEC tourney, but now they really only have the Pitt win as a big OOC (Nova and Belmont only other wins over current tourney teams -- VCU, MO St, Memphis all looking like NITs at the moment), to go against 5 OOC losses (3 to non-tourney teams), a .500 record in a down SEC and a total of 14 losses if they do not win SEC Tourney Championship.

@DavidATL - that is a good point. It would actually be helpful if he had that prior to the last second. Then, we'd actually know for sure who was getting in. Instead, he's capable of bumping Missouri State from in to the next four out, and getting Arkansas from out of nowhere into the field.

I agree with the notion that George Mason is better off as a 10 vice a 8 or 9. Hoping ODU is a 7 for the same reason.

I think many of these "power" conference teams on the bubble will continue to do what they've doing... play themselves out of the Big Dance. Hence, I believe VCU will get much more consideration by the committee than anyone commmenting on this blog believes.

I still don't understand why the committee can't find more major cities out west to host tournament games. I mean, its one thing to ship a team out west but how many flights can they possibly have to places like Tuscon, Boise, and Spokane?

I agree for the moment that Missouri State's not in the field, but with no less than 15 bubble games to watch today, Bears fans have lots of teams to root against... Colorado, Boston College, Michigan State, Memphis, Georgia, UTEP, Colorado State, Tennessee, and Virginia Tech all play today.

Should something like 6 out of those 9 teams lose today, the Bears could be back in business.

I am still failing to see how georgetown gets a seven seed. They are currently 12 in the RPI and Wright is practicing. They were top 5 RPI with him. They wouldve been foolish to play him in the BET but will that ultimately hurt them. Should they send a tape of him practicing to prove it. If the committee has really thrown out the last 10 rule and is looking at the body of work no way they can be a 7. I also really dont think they would pair them with UNC who Im sure they want to see make a run and gtown would potentially be the best 7 seed ever.

AG, Next year Albuquerque and Portland will be the Western early round hosts, then it's San Jose and Salt Lake City in 2013. Denver, Seattle, Sacramento, San Diego, Oakland and Fresno(why hasn't the NCAA considered the city yet?) are also available to host too. Cities like Phoenix, Anaheim and LA prefer to host regionals.

The NCAA can't just select Western cities to host, they need schools willing to undertake the hosting duties too. Boise and Wazzu have proven themselves to be good hosts so they will continue to get games on the first weekend. There just aren't enough large cities out west with willing hosts I guess.

In 2012 the western regional site is Phoenix with 1st/2nd round games in Albuquerque and Portland. In 2013 the Regional is in LA with Salt Lake City and San Jose as 1st/2nd round sites.

"The NCAA can't just select Western cities to host, they need schools willing to undertake the hosting duties too."

Why not? This isn't high school basketball. What does the NCAA need a "hosting school" for? It's not like the players are being hosted in private homes. The NCAA needs an arena with open dates, enough hotel rooms to accommodate a full stadium of people and sufficient flights. Picking crappy "cities" (more like big towns) with horrible airfare options is doing a disservice to the teams that have to travel to them.

Depending on the bracket and matchups, I've said all year that UCONN will go the furthest from the Big East. They have the big men that create second chance points and a prolific scorer, which are the two biggest things you need to make a deep run in the tournament.

This projected bracket shows a possible sweet 16 matchup of uconn and notre dame. That will be a game. No love for syracuse? They always make noise and certainly will this year. I think St. John's is too new to the game too far. They may even lose first round. Nova on the 10 line could take care of a 7...I hope.

And the last minute of the UCONN game is exactly why I think they'll go the furthest. Walker missed the first game winning shot, but they got the huge offensive rebound, and you just cant give a player like Kemba Walker extra opportunites to hurt you.

Guards win in the NCAA's - can't beat Kemba right now. He'll break you down and create shots.

A little note on Syracuse: I believe since 1990 they've only gotten past the sweet 16 twice. That's a crazy statistic. The two times it happened the won the national title and lost in the national title.

Pitt is still a one. I don't think they'll put Duke ahead of Pitt, not when Pitt won the hardest league and Duke couldn't even win the ACC. It's not like losing to UConn on a last second shot is a bad loss either. ND could move ahead of Pitt, but they still have to win the tournament.

"A little note on Syracuse: I believe since 1990 they've only gotten past the sweet 16 twice. That's a crazy statistic. The two times it happened the won the national title and lost in the national title."

why is that a crazy stat? it's not easy to be one of 8 remaining teams. there are a lot of good teams with the same stat (eg, georgetown and st johns).

"not when Pitt won the hardest league and Duke couldn't even win the ACC."

the ACC doesn't recognize a regular season champion. with unbalanced schedules finishing within 1 game of a team you split with isn't very significant. a lack of top 25 or 30 or whatever metric you want to use is much more significant.

I understand leaving Garyland off of your discussion about the ACC Tournament...but don't forget once they get passed NC State; somehow manage to topple Duke....they are suddenly dangerous. NC Flake better double/triple Jordan if they want to have a chance...even then I see Stoglin lighting it up tonight.

Especially if UNC chokes somewhere before the final.

Gilchrist did the same thing for Garyland when they were virtually in the same position. Fear the Turtle.

Am I the only one who thinks St. John's will lose early? Villanova and Georgetown will probably lose opening round. Pitt, ND, Uconn, Syracuse are locks for win in my opinion. I am guessing that at least 4 Big East teams lost opening round if not higher.

Because when UConn is down, the entire team puts the ball in Kemba's hands because he's the one they trust. It results in him getting more shots. Those losses were ALL to tournament teams. In 6 of those games where he had more than 20 shots, he had 40 OR MORE minutes.

You're right, nobody can beat Ohio St. If watching the tournament over 25 years has taught me anything, it's that nobody can get upset and one team always establishes themselves before the tournament as unbeatable.

Again, stats without explanation. If Nolan Smith is taking 20 shots in a game, its because he's having a tremendous game. If he's off, they have other players who can pick up the slack, which is something Connecticut can't afford.

Jimmer is a different story entirely because the competition they face is vastly different.

I always believed UAB losing in the C-USA tournament was the lockiest lock I've ever locked, mainly because they were swept by Memphis and they're coached by Mike Davis. Its the major reason I thought C-USA was a 2-bid league. But I didn't think they'd lose their first game! Does this mean C-USA is a 1-bid league or is the league still looking good for 2?

On Kemba - He shot 43% for the year, but how'd he do once conference season started? 39%. And if you remove the bottom 5 in the big east, he falls to 36%. He shoots a ton and plays like Kobe. Sure, he's got a ton of talent and can burn you but let's be real here.

Ya, except Kobe hits significantly more shots than Kemba does. He's a hell of a player, don't get me wrong, I just think they'd be way better off if he spent more time facilitating and less time jacking up contested pull up Js.

How many times does Kemba take contested shots early in the shot clock? Almost never. If it happens, its with the clock winding down already. Compare this to someone like Lacedarius Dunn who will shoot over 2 people with 31 seconds still on the clock.

Kemba Walker plays within his system, and he's going to be a major reason UCONN goes deep into the tournament.

UABs resume is decent because of good computer numbers, but nothing spectacular when you start going over their wins. They're down 7 with 40 seconds left, an I think they're looking at a 1 or 2 seed in the NIT now.

Also, if TCU somehow holds on to beat BYU, what does that do to the New Mexico/Colorado State winner? Would that hurt them since they wouldn't have a crack at BYU and their only other chance for a quality win would be to beat SDSU in the final and win the automatic bid?

UAB is an interesting case. They won C-USA and have a very good RPI. On the other hand, their best wins are VCU, UTEP, Marshall twice, and Southern Miss. VCU and UTEP are barely bubble teams. They also lost to Arizona St, and now have lost to ECU. Is their resume really all that different from Harvard's?

UAB is a tough call now and will either be one of the last 4 in or out. UAB needs to pull for Memphis to win the conference tourney now (or lose today).

Kansas State could go anywhere from a 4 to a 7.

Tough call whether or not CSU or UNM should pull for BYU. A final appearance may end up being enough for either of them. If we were a fan of either team we would root against BYU just since it gives my team the best chance to win the auto bid then.

@AG - They may not have time to calculate the top 25, but I believe when it gets to the last few, they really look at the entire schedule, including the names, and not just the #s. By then, a win over Marquette would be good and a win over Missouri State would be diminished despite Marquette not being top 50 and Missouri State being top 50.

1) I need an explanation as to why Colorado is in the field over USC and V-Tech. Does K-State really carry that much weight?

2) I know these arguments are pointless, but I'll bite. I'm curious who decided the Big East was far and away the best conference this year? The Pomeroy ratings certainly don't support it. Yet, "Big East OMG" seems to be gospel. Thoughts?

Although the average Pomeroy ratings don't support the Big East as the best (and his is one of the few computers that don't have them on top), if you looked at it a different way - how many teams are in the Pomeroy top 40? - the Big East comes off as best by far in the Pomeroy ratings, too.

The Big East is #1 as rated in the RPI and Sagarin. The main reason they're #2 in Pomeroy is because South Florida and especially, DePaul, are much worse than Iowa and Indiana. Those 2 teams really drag the conference's average down. If you just threw DePaul out (which I realize isn't fair), the Big East would be #1.

If you used a different measure of the middle of the conference than the mean, say median or Sagarin's weighted average, the BE would be #1 in Pomeroy too.

There has been a lot made about UAB winning the CUSA regular title. Two things about that:

1) The committee has said time and time again that they don't care about conference affiliation, so that carries little weight. Those Nitty Gritty reports won't show that they won their conference. Instead, it will say that their RPI is 30, they're 1-4 vs the Top 50, etc.

2) And even if the regular season title was taken into account, B101's point that they're 2-4 against the rest of the CUSA's good teams won't really help.

It's way too early, but if Oregon State were to somehow beat Arizona, then would USC probably need to win the Pac-10 tournament for a bid? A win over Cal and Arizona would be better, obviously, than a win over Cal and Oregon State.

The committee can say they don't look at conferences all they want, but their selections say otherwise. They also have previously (granted this was the mid-90s) specifically stated that regular season conference champions get a boost.

Air Force '04 (in) and Missouri State '06 (out) are just two examples of them almost having to use conference affiliation.

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