U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Waterfowl
Population Status, 2004
WATERFOWL POPULATION STATUS, 2004
July 22, 2004
In North America the process of establishing hunting regulations for waterfowl is conducted annually. In the
United States the process involves a number of scheduled meetings in which information regarding the status of
waterfowl is presented to individuals within the agencies responsible for setting hunting regulations. In addition
the proposed regulations are published in the Federal Register to allow public comment. This report includes
the most current breeding population and production information available for waterfowl in North America and is
a result of cooperative efforts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the Canadian Wildlife Service
(CWS), various state and provincial conservation agencies, and private conservation organizations. This report
is intended to aid the development of waterfowl harvest regulations in the United States for the 2004-2005
hunting season.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Cover art: Redheads. Scot Storm, winner of the 2004-2005 Federal Duck Stamp design competition.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Waterfowl Population and Habitat Information: The information contained in this report is the result of the efforts
of numerous individuals and organizations. Principal contributors include the Canadian Wildlife Service, U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service, state wildlife conservation agencies, provincial conservation agencies from Canada,
and Direccion General de Conservacion Ecologica de los Recursos Naturales, Mexico. In addition, several
conservation organizations, other state and federal agencies, universities, and private individuals provided
information or cooperated in survey activities. Some habitat and weather information was taken from the
NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility (http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/), Environment Canada
(http://www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/), and Waterfowl Population Surveys reports
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html). Appendix A provides a list of individuals responsible for the
collection and compilation of data for the Ducks section of this report. Appendix B provides a list of individuals
who were primary contacts for information included in the Geese and Swans section. We apologize for any
omission of individuals from these lists, and thank all participants for their contributions. Without this combined
effort, a comprehensive assessment of waterfowl populations and habitat would not be possible.
Authors: This report was prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird
Management, Branch of Surveys and Assessment. The principal authors are Pamela R. Garrettson, Timothy J.
Moser, and Khristi Wilkins. The authors compiled information from the numerous sources to provide an
assessment of the status of waterfowl populations.
Report Preparation: The preparation of this report involved substantial efforts on the part of many individuals.
Support for the processing of data and publication was provided by Mark C. Otto, John Sauer and Judith P.
Bladen. Ray Bentley, John Bidwell, Karen Bollinger, Elizabeth Buelna, Bruce Conant, Carl Ferguson, Rod King,
Mark Koneff, Fred Roetker, John Solberg, Phil Thorpe, James Voelzer, and James Wortham provided habitat
narratives, reviewed portions of the report that addressed major breeding areas, and provided helpful
comments.
This report should be cited as: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2004. Waterfowl population status, 2004. U.S.
Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C. U.S.A.
All Division of Migratory Bird Management reports are available at our home page
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov).
Next year is the 50th anniversary of the May Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey.
Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.................................................................................................................... 2
Status of Ducks
METHODS ........................................................................................................................................ 5
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION........................................................................................................... 6
REFERENCES.................................................................................................................................. 21
Status of Geese and Swans
METHODS ........................................................................................................................................ 23
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION........................................................................................................... 25
Appendices
Appendix A. Individuals that supplied information on the status of ducks ........................................ 39
Appendix B. Individuals that supplied information on the status of geese and swans ..................... 41
Appendix C. Transects and strata for areas of the May Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat
Survey .................................................................................................................................. 43
Appendix D. Estimated number of May ponds and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada
and the northcentral U.S. ...................................................................................................... 44
Appendix E. Breeding population estimates for total ducks and mallards for states, provinces,
or regions that conduct spring surveys ................................................................................. 45
Appendix F. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for 10 species of ducks
from the traditional survey area ............................................................................................ 47
Appendix G. Total duck breeding estimates for the traditional and eastern survey areas in
thousands............................................................................................................................. 49
Appendix H. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for the 10 most abundant
species of ducks in the eastern survey area, 1996-2004 ..................................................... 50
Appendix I. Estimated number of July ponds and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada
and the northcentral U.S ....................................................................................................... 51
Appendix J. Population indices for North American Canada goose populations, 1969-2004 .......... 52
Appendix K. Population indices for light goose, greater white-fronted goose, brant, emperor
goose, and tundra swan populations during 1969-2004....................................................... 53
3
List of Duck Tables
Table 1. Estimated number of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the
northcentral U.S. .................................................................................................................. 8
Table 2. Total duck breeding population estimates .......................................................................... 10
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates ............................................................................... 11
Table 4. Duck breeding population estimates for the 10 most abundant species in the traditional
survey area. .......................................................................................................................... 15
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates for the 10 most abundant species in the eastern
survey area ........................................................................................................................... 15
List of Duck Figures
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the
northcentral U.S. .................................................................................................................. 8
Figure 2. Breeding population estimates, 95% confidence intervals, and North American
Waterfowl Management Plan population goal for selected species for the traditional
survey area .......................................................................................................................... 12
Figure 3. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size of the mallard population in the
fall......................................................................................................................................... 21
List of Goose and Swan Figures
Figure 1. Important goose nesting areas in arctic and subarctic North America ............................. 24
Figure 2. Snow and ice cover in North America for spring ............................................................... 25
Figure 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America............................... 26
Figures 4-18. Indices to Canada goose populations’ status ............................................................ 25-32
Figure 19. Approximate ranges of selected goose populations in North America............................ 33
Figures 20-26, 28. Indices to selected goose populations’ status ................................................... 34-39
Figure 27. Approximate range of Emperor goose, and tundra swan populations in
North America ....................................................................................................................... 37
Figure 29. Indices to tundra swan populations’ status...................................................................... 38
4
STATUS OF DUCKS
Abstract: In the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, and 75-77),
the total-duck population estimate was 32.2 ± 0.6 (± 1 standard error) million birds, 11% below last year’s
estimate of 36.2 ± 0.7 million birds (P<0.001), and 3% below the 1955-2003 long-term average (P=0.053).
Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) numbered 7.4 ± 0.3 million, similar to last year’s estimate of 7.9 ± 0.3
million birds (P=0.177) and to the long-term average (P=0.762). Blue-winged teal (A. discors) numbered
4.1 ± 0.2 million, 26% below last year’s estimate of 5.5 ± 0.3 million (P<0.001) and 10% below the long-term
average (P=0.073). Among other duck species, only northern shovelers (A. clypeata, 2.8 ± 0.2
million) and American wigeon (A. americana, 2.0 ± 0.1 million) differed significantly from (both 22%
below, P<0.003) their 2003 estimates. As in 2003, gadwall (A. strepera, 2.6 ± 0.2 million, +56%), green-winged
teal (A. crecca, 2.5 ± 0.1 million, +33%), and northern shovelers (+32%) were above their long-term
averages. Northern pintails (A. acuta, 2.2 ± 0.2 million, -48%), scaup (Aythya affinis and A. marila,
3.8 ± 0.2 million, -27%), and American wigeon (-25%) were well below their long-term averages in 2004
(P<0.001). Total May ponds (Prairie Canada, and the north-central U.S. combined) were estimated at 3.9
± 0.2 million, which is 24% lower than last year (P<0.001) and 19% below the long-term average
(P<0.001). Pond numbers in both Canada (2.5 ± 0.1 million) and the U. S. (1.4 ± 0.1 million) were below
2003 estimates (-29% in Canada, and -16% in the U.S.; P<0.033), and pond numbers in Canada were
25% below the long-term average for this region (P<0.001). The projected mallard fall flight index was 9.4
± 0.1 million birds, similar to the 2003 estimate of 10.3 ± 0.1 million (P=0.467). The eastern survey area is
comprised of strata 51-56 and 62-69. The 2004 total-duck population estimate for this area was 3.9 ± 0.3
million birds. This estimate was similar to last year’s estimate of 3.6 ± 0.3 million birds, and to the 1996-
2003 average (P>0.102). Individual species estimates for this area were similar to 2003 estimates and to
1996-2003 averages, with the exception of American wigeon (0.1 ± 0.1 million) and goldeneyes
(Bucephala clangula and B. islandica, 0.4 ± 0.1 million) which were 61% and 42% below their 1996-2003
averages (P<0.052), respectively, and ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris, 0.7 ± 0.2 million), which
increased 67% relative to their 2003 estimate (P=0.095).
This section summarizes the most recent
information about the status of North American duck
populations and their habitats in order to facilitate
development of harvest regulations in the U.S. The
annual status of these populations is monitored using
a variety of databases, which include estimates of the
size of breeding populations, production, and harvest.
This report discusses population survey results.
Harvest survey results are discussed in separate
reports. The data and analyses were the most
current available when this report was written. Future
analyses may yield slightly different results as
databases are updated and new analytical
procedures become available.
METHODS
Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
Federal, provincial, and state agencies conduct
surveys each spring to estimate the size of breeding
populations and to evaluate the condition of the
habitats. These surveys are conducted using fixed-wing
aircraft and cover over 2.0 million square miles
that encompass principal breeding areas of North
America. The traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-
50, and 75-77) comprises parts of Alaska, Canada,
and the north-central U.S., and includes
approximately 1.3 million square miles (Appendix C).
The eastern survey area (strata 51-56 and 62-69)
includes parts of Ontario, Quebec, Labrador,
Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island,
New Brunswick, New York, and Maine, covering an
area of approximately 0.7 million square miles.
In Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S.,
estimates are corrected annually for visibility bias
by conducting ground counts. In the northern
portions of the traditional survey area and the
eastern survey area, duck estimates are adjusted
using visibility correction factors derived from a
comparison of airplane and helicopter counts. For
the 2004 eastern survey area, these correction
factors were updated only in strata 68 and 69.
Annual estimates of duck abundance are available
since 1955 for the traditional survey area and for
all strata in the eastern survey area since 1996,
although portions of the eastern survey area have
been surveyed since 1990. In the traditional
survey area, estimates of pond abundance in
Prairie Canada are available since 1961 and in
the north-central U.S. since 1974. Several
provinces and states also conduct breeding
waterfowl surveys using various methods; some
have survey designs that allow calculation of
5
measures of precision for their estimates.
Information about habitat conditions was supplied
primarily by biologists working in the survey areas.
However, much ancillary weather information was
obtained from agricultural and weather internet
sites (see references).
Production and Habitat Survey
In July, aerial observers usually assess summer
habitat conditions and duck production in a portion of
the traditional survey area (strata 20-49 and 75-77).
This survey provides indices of duck brood and pond
numbers. Ground counts are not conducted
concurrently with July aerial surveys, so indices of
duck broods and ponds are not corrected for visibility
bias. The coefficients of variation for May pond
estimates are used to estimate the precision of July
pond counts.
This year, we had no traditional July Production
Survey to verify the early predictions of our biologists
in the field, due to severe budget constraints within
the migratory bird program. However, the pilot-biologists
responsible for several survey areas
(southern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, the
Dakotas, and Montana) returned in early July for a
brief flight over representative portions of their areas
as a rough assessment of habitat changes since May
and resultant duck production. This information,
along with reports from local biologists in the field,
helped us formulate our overall perspective on duck
production this year.
Total Duck Species Composition
In the traditional survey area, our estimate of total
ducks excludes scoters (Melanitta spp.), eiders
(Somateria and Polysticta spp.), long-tailed ducks
(Clangula hyemalis), mergansers (Mergus and
Lophodytes spp.), and wood ducks (Aix sponsa),
because the traditional survey area does not cover a
large portion of their breeding range. However,
scoters and mergansers breed throughout a large
portion of the eastern survey area. Therefore, the
total-duck species composition in the eastern survey
area includes these species. Canvasbacks (Aythya
valisineria), redheads (A. americana), and ruddy
ducks (Oxyura jamaicensis) are excluded from the
eastern total-duck estimate because these species
rarely breed there. Wood ducks are also not included
in the total-duck estimate for the eastern survey area,
even though this species breeds over much of the
region, as their wooded habitats make them difficult
to detect from the air.
Mallard Fall-flight Index
The mallard fall-flight index is a prediction of the
size of the fall population originating from the mid-continent
region of North America. For
management purposes, the mid-continent
population is composed of mallards originating
from the traditional survey area, as well as
Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The index is
based on the mallard models used for Adaptive
Harvest Management, and considers breeding
population size, habitat conditions, adult summer
survival, and projected fall age ratio (young/adult).
The projected fall age ratio is predicted from a
model that depicts how the age ratio varies with
changes in spring population size and pond
abundance. The fall-flight index represents a
weighted average of the fall flights predicted by
the four alternative models of mallard population
dynamics used in Adaptive Harvest Management
(U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2004).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
2003 in Review
Habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl
greatly improved over 2002 in most of the prairie
survey areas and those improved conditions were
reflected in the numbers of ponds counted in
2003. The May pond estimate (U.S. Prairies and
Prairie and Parkland Canada combined) of 5.2 ±
0.2 million was 91% higher than in 2002
(P<0.001), and 7% above the long-term average
(P=0.034). Pond numbers in Canada (3.5 ± 0.2
million) and the U.S. (1.7 ± 0.1 million) were
above 2002 estimates (+145% in Canada and
+30% in the U.S.; P<0.001). Canadian ponds
were similar to the 1961-2002 average (P=0.297),
while ponds in the U.S. were 10% above the
1974-2002 average (P=0.037).
Most prairie areas had warm temperatures and
abundant rain last spring. Two areas of dramatic
improvement over the previous several years
were south-central Alberta and southern
Saskatchewan, where conditions went from poor
to good after much needed precipitation alleviated
several years of drought. Other areas in the
prairies also improved over 2002, but to a lesser
extent. However, years of drought in parts of the
U.S. and Canadian prairies, combined with inten-sive
agricultural practices, reduced the quality and
quantity of residual nesting cover and over-water
nesting sites in many regions in 2003, and limited
production for both dabbling and diving ducks.
Eastern South Dakota was the one area of the
6
prairies where wetland habitat conditions were
generally worse than in 2002, mostly due to low
soil moisture, little winter precipitation and no
significant rain in April. This region received
several inches of rain in May, but by then most
birds had flown to other regions with more
favorable wetland conditions.
In the northern part of the traditional survey area,
habitat was in generally good condition and most
areas had normal water levels. The exception was
northern Manitoba, where low water levels in
small streams and beaver ponds resulted in
overall breeding habitat conditions that were only
fair. Warm spring temperatures arrived much
earlier last year, in contrast with the exceptionally
late spring of 2002. However, a cold snap in early
May likely hurt early-nesting species such as
mallards and northern pintails, particularly in the
northern Northwest Territories.
Habitat conditions in the eastern survey area
ranged from excellent to fair. In the southern and
western part of this survey area, water and
nesting cover were plentiful and temperatures
were mild in 2003. Habitat quality decreased to
the north, especially in northern and western
Quebec, where many shallow marshes and bogs
were either completely dry or reduced to mudflats.
Beaver pond habitat was also noticeably less
common than normal. To the east in Maine and
most of the Atlantic provinces, conditions were
excellent, with adequate water and vegetation,
and warm spring temperatures.
In the traditional survey area, the total-duck
population estimate (excluding scoters, eiders,
long-tailed ducks, mergansers, and wood ducks)
was 36.2 ± 0.7 million birds, 16% above (P<0.001)
the 2002 estimate of 31.2 ± 0.5 million birds, and
9% above the 1955-2002 long-term average
(P<0.001). In the eastern Dakotas, total duck
numbers decreased by 21% relative to the
previous year, but remained 25% above the long-term
average (P<0.001). Counts in southern
Alberta were unchanged from the previous year,
and remained 38% below the long-term average
(P<0.001). Total-duck estimates increased
compared to 2002 in southern Manitoba, Montana
and the western Dakotas, southern
Saskatchewan, and Alaska (P<0.012) and were
above long-term averages in the latter two regions
(P<0.001). Counts in central and northern
Alberta, northeast British Columbia and the
Northwest Territories were similar to those of
2002, but 11% below the long-term average
(P=0.017). Counts in northern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba and western Ontario were down 21%
from 2002 estimates (P=0.003), but unchanged
from the long-term average (P=0.959). The 2003
total-duck population estimate for the eastern
survey area was 3.6 ± 0.3 million birds. That was
17% lower than the 2002 estimate (4.4 ± 0.3
million birds, P=0.065), and similar to the 1996-
2002 average (P=0.266). In some other areas
where surveys are conducted, measures of precision
for estimates are provided (British Columbia,
California, northeastern U.S., and Wisconsin). Total
duck abundance was similar to the 2002 estimates
and long-term averages in British Columbia and the
northeastern U.S. (P>0.171). In California, the total
duck estimate was up 36% relative to 2002
(P=0.030), and was similar to the long-term average
(P=0.177). Of the states without measures of
precision for total duck numbers, Nevada's estimate
increased relative to 2002, but estimates for
Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Washington all
decreased compared to the previous year.
The number of broods in Prairie Canada and
the north-central U.S. were 142% and 18% higher
than 2002 estimates, respectively. Brood indices
in Prairie Canada were 24% below the long-term
average, while brood counts were 31% above the
long-term average in the north-central U.S. The
brood index in the Canadian boreal forest was
72% lower than that of 2002, and 76% below the
long-term average. The late-nesting index was
down 43% and 30% relative to 2002 in boreal
Canada and Prairie Canada, respectively, but up
67% in the north-central U.S. Late nesting indices
were below long-term averages by 74% in boreal
Canada, by 43% in the north-central U.S., and by
46% in Prairie Canada.
2004 Breeding Habitat Conditions, Popula-tions,
and Production
Overall Habitat and Population Status
Most of the U.S. and Canadian prairies were
much drier in May 2004 than in May 2003, which
was reflected in the pond counts for this region.
For the U.S. Prairies and Canadian Prairie and
Parkland combined, the May pond estimate (Table
1, Figure 1) was 3.9 ± 0.2 million, which is 24%
lower than last year’s (P<0.001) and 19% below
the long-term average (P<0.001). Pond numbers
in both Canada (2.5 ± 0.1 million) and the U. S.
(1.4 ± 0.1 million) were below 2003 estimates
(-29% in Canada and -16% in the U.S.; P<0.033).
The number of ponds in Canada was 25% below
the long-term average (P<0.001).
Unfortunately, last year’s good water conditions
on the short-grass prairies of southern Alberta and
Saskatchewan did not continue in 2004, and
7
Table 1. Estimated number (in thousands) of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Change from 2003 Change from LTA
Survey Area 2003 2004 % P LTAa % P
Prairie Canada
S. Alberta 888 511 -43 <0.001 726 -30 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 2143 1461 -32 <0.001 1964 -26 <0.001
S. Manitoba 491 541 +10 0.280 674 -20 <0.001
Subtotal 3522 2513 -29 <0.001 3365 -25 <0.001
Northcentral U.S.
Montana and western Dakotas 480 597 +25 0.018 521 +15 0.071
Eastern Dakotas 1188 810 -32 0.001 1006 -20 0.037
Subtotal 1668 1407 -16 0.033 1528 -8 0.243
Grand Total 5190 3920 -24 <0.001 4842 -19 <0.001
aLong-term average. Prairie Canada, 1961-2003; northcentral U.S. and Grand Total, 1974-2003.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Millions
Northcentral U.S.
Prairie Canada
Total
Year
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals in Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
8
habitat in these areas went from good last year to
fair or poor this year. Habitat in southern Manitoba
ranged from poor in the east to good in the west,
conditions similar to last year’s. In the Dakotas, a
slow drying trend seen over the past few years
continued, and much of eastern South Dakota
was in poor condition. Conditions in the Dakotas
improved to the north, and eastern Montana was a
mosaic of poor to good conditions, with overall
production potential rated only fair. Although
prairie areas received considerable moisture from
snow, including a late-spring snowstorm in
southern regions, the snowmelt was absorbed by
the parched ground. Furthermore, snow and cold
during May probably adversely affected early
nesters and young broods. Many prairie areas
received abundant water after May surveys, but it
likely did not alleviate dry conditions, because this
precipitation also soaked into the ground.
Therefore, overall expected production from the
prairies was only poor to fair this year.
Spring thaw was exceptionally late this year in
the Northwest Territories, northern Alberta,
northern Saskatchewan, and northern Manitoba.
This meant that birds that over-flew the prairies
due to poor conditions encountered winter-like
conditions in the bush, and nesting may have
been curtailed. This is especially true for early-nesting
species like mallards and northern pintails;
late nesters should have better success. Overall,
the bush regions were only fair to marginally good
for production due to this late thaw. However,
Alaska birds should produce well due to excellent
habitat conditions there. Areas south of the
Brooks Range experienced a widespread, record-setting
early spring breakup, and flooding of
nesting areas was minimal.
Breeding habitat conditions were generally
good to excellent in the eastern U.S. and Canada.
Although spring was late in most areas, it was
thought nesting was not significantly affected
because of abundant spring rain and mild
temperatures. Production in the east was normal
in Ontario and the Maritimes, and slightly below
normal in Quebec.
In the traditional survey area, the total duck
population estimate (excluding scoters, eiders,
long-tailed ducks, mergansers, and wood ducks)
was 32.2 ± 0.6 million birds, 11% below (P<0.001)
last year’s estimate of 36.2 ± 0.7 million birds, and
3% below the long-term (1955-2003) average
(P=0.053; Table 2, Table 4, Appendix G). In the
eastern Dakotas, total duck numbers were similar
to last year’s estimate (P<0.590), and remained
29% above the long-term average (P<0.001).
Counts in southern Alberta were also similar to
last year’s (P<0.309), and remained 42% below
the long-term average (P<0.001). The total-duck
estimate decreased 38% relative to last year in
southern Saskatchewan (P<0.001) and was 22%
below the long-term average (P<0.001). Counts in
central and northern Alberta, northeast British
Columbia and the Northwest Territories were
similar to last year's (P=0.160) but below the long-term
average (P<0.001, Table 2). Counts in the
northern Saskatchewan--northern Manitoba--
western Ontario area, and the Alaska--Yukon
Territory--Old Crow Flats region were both similar
to 2003 estimates (P>0.106), but above their long-term
averages (P<0.033). Total duck counts in the
southern Manitoba region and the western
Dakotas--eastern Montana region were similar to
2003 estimates and to long-term averages
(P>0.354). The 2004 total duck population
estimate for the eastern survey area was 3.9 ± 0.3
million birds (Table 5). This estimate is similar to
last year's (3.6 ± 0.3 million birds), and to the
1996-2003 average (P>0.102).
In British Columbia, California, northeastern U.S.,
Oregon, and Wisconsin., measures of precision for
survey estimates are provided. Total duck
abundance decreased by 23% in California
(P=0.079) relative to 2003, and was similar to 2003 in
British Columbia, Wisconsin, Oregon, and the
northeastern U.S. (P>0.165). The total duck estimate
was down 31% in California (P<0.001) and 16% in
Oregon (P=0.042) relative to the long-term average.
In Wisconsin, total ducks were 58% above their long-term
average (P=0.001). In British Columbia and the
northeastern U.S., total duck estimates were similar
to their long-term averages. Of the states without
measures of precision for total duck numbers,
estimates of total ducks increased in Nevada,
Minnesota, and Michigan relative to 2003, but
estimates decreased in Nebraska and Washington
compared to last year.
Trends and annual breeding population
estimates for 10 principal duck species from the
traditional survey area are provided in Figure 2,
Table 4, and Appendix F. Mallard abundance was
7.4 ± 0.3 million, which is statistically similar to last
year’s estimate of 7.9 ± 0.3 million (P=0.177), and
to the long-term average (P=0.762, Tables 3 and
4). Mallard numbers dropped significantly in
southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba
compared to 2003 (P<0.032). Mallards were 23%
below their long-term average in southern
Saskatchewan (P<0.001), but unchanged from the
long-term average in southern Manitoba. In the
eastern Dakotas and Alaska--Yukon Territory--Old
Crow Flats regions, mallard estimates were similar
to those of 2003 (P>0.726), and remained well
9
Table 2. Total ducka breeding population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2003 Change from LTA
Region 2003 2004 % P LTAb % P
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats 5705 5456 -4 0.361 3480 +57 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories 6461 5882 -9 0.160 7229 -19 <0.001
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario 3564 4085 +15 0.106 3554 +15 0.033
S. Alberta 2696 2499 -7 0.309 4342 -42 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 9296 5783 -38 <0.001 7367 -22 <0.001
S. Manitoba 1582 1474 -7 0.354 1544 -5 0.393
Montana and Western Dakotas 1731 1615 -7 0.413 1620 0 0.955
Eastern Dakotas 5190 5370 +3 0.590 4169 +29 <0.001
Total 36225 32164 -11 <0.001 33304 -3 0.053
Eastern Survey Area 3635 3905 +7 0.534 3343 +17 0.102
Other Regions
British Columbia c 8 6 -24 0.366 8 -18 0.277
California 534 413 -23 0.079 598 -31 <0.001
Northeastern U.S. d 1304 1418 +9 0.313 1400 +1 0.854
Oregon 298 301 +1 0.929 356 -16 0.042
Wisconsin 533 651 +22 0.165 412 +58 0.001
a Excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, scoter, and merganser in traditional survey area; excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, redhead, canvasback and ruddy
duck in eastern survey area; species composition for other regions varies.
b Long-term average. Traditional survey area=1955-2003; eastern survey area=1996-2003; years for other regions vary (see Appendix E).
c Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing regions of the province.
d Includes all or portions of CT, DE, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, and VA.
e Not estimable from current survey.
10
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2003 Change from LTA
Region 2003 2004 % P LTAb % P
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats 843 811 -4 0.726 341 +138 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories 852 776 -9 0.502 1103 -30 <0.001
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario 1103 1283 +16 0.417 1161 +11 0.482
S. Alberta 627 600 -4 0.766 1118 -46 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 2111 1609 -24 0.011 2088 -23 <0.001
S. Manitoba 505 393 -22 0.032 376 +5 0.509
Montana and Western Dakotas 506 495 -2 0.891 502 -1 0.911
Eastern Dakotas 1402 1456 +4 0.727 823 +77 <0.001
Total 7950 7425 -7 0.177 7512 -1 0.762
Eastern Survey Area 383 368 -4 0.853 312 +18 0.358
Other Regions
British Columbia b 1 1 +6 0.743 1 -27 0.015
California 337 262 -22 0.216 376 -30 0.003
Michigan 294 329 +12 0.614 436 -25 0.054
Minnesota 281 375 +34 0.158 289 +72 d
Northeastern U.S. c 732 809 +11 0.988 762 +6 0.993
Oregon 110 103 -6 0.563 130 -21 0.002
Wisconsin 261 229 -12 0.443 173 +32 0.050
a Long-term average. Traditional survey area=1955-2003; eastern survey area=1996-20013 years for other regions vary (see Appendix E).
b Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing regions of the province.
c Includes all or portions of CT, DE, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, and VA.
d Value for test statistic was not available.
11
Figure 2. Breeding population estimates, 95% confidence intervals, and North American Waterfowl Management
Plan population goal (dashed line) for selected species in the traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, 75-77).
Mallard
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
American wigeon
0
1
2
3
4
5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Gadwall
0
1
2
3
4
5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Blue-winged teal
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions Green-winged teal
0
1
2
3
4
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Total ducks
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
12
Figure 2 continued.
Northern pintail
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Canvasback
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Redhead
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Scaup
0
2
4
6
8
10
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Northern shoveler
0
1
2
3
4
5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
American black duck
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Mississippi Flyway
Atlantic Flyway
Total
13
above long-term averages (P<0.001). Mallard
estimates for the central and northern Alberta--
northeastern British Columbia--Northwest
Territories and the southern Alberta survey areas
were also unchanged from 2003 estimates
(P>0.502) but remained below long-term averages
(P<0.001). In the Montana--western Dakotas and
the northern Saskatchewan--northern Manitoba--
western Ontario survey areas mallard numbers
did not change relative to last year’s estimates
and were similar to their long term averages
(P>0.502). In other areas where surveys are
conducted and measures of precision for estimates
are provided (the same states as for total ducks, as
well as Michigan and Minnesota), mallard abundance
remained unchanged from 2003. Mallard estimates
were below the long-term average in Michigan
(P=0.054), British Columbia (P=0.015), California
(P=0.003), and Oregon (P=0.002), above it in
Wisconsin (P=0.050), and similar to it in the
northeastern U.S. (P=0.993). In Nebraska, Nevada
and Washington, estimates of precision are
unavailable, but mallard counts were down relative to
last year's in Nebraska, increased in and
Washington, and were unchanged in Nevada.
Blue-winged teal abundance was estimated at
4.1 ± 0.2 million birds, 26% below (P<0.001) last
year’s estimate of 5.5 ± 0.3 million, and 10%
(P=0.073) below the 1955-2003 average.
Evidence for overflight of the prairies by blue-winged
teal was suggested by declines in
population estimates relative to 2003 in all prairie
survey areas except southern Alberta and
Montana--western Dakotas, where numbers were
similar to 2003 (P>0.384). Of the other duck
species, only northern shovelers (2.8 ± 0.2 million)
and American wigeon (2.0 ± 0.1 million) were
different from (both 22% below, P<0.003) their
2003 estimates. As in 2003, gadwall (2.6 ± 0.2
million, +56%), green-winged teal (2.5 ± 0.1
million, +33%), and northern shovelers (+32%)
were above their long-term averages (P<0.001).
Northern pintails (2.2 ± 0.2 million, -48%) and
scaup (3.8 ± 0.2 million, -27%) remained well
below their long-term averages (P<0.001), in both
total counts and in most individual survey regions.
American wigeon were also below their overall
long-term average in 2004 (-25%, P<0.001), and
declined in all survey areas (P<0.001) except for
Alaska, where they increased by 81% from 2003
(P<0.001), and the eastern Dakotas, where they
were unchanged from 2003 (P=0.500).
Populations of most species in the eastern
survey area were similar to last year’s and 1996-
2003 estimates. The ring-necked duck estimate
increased 67% relative to 2003, to 0.7 ± 0.2
million birds (P=0.095). American wigeon (0.1 ±
0.1 million, -61%) and goldeneye (0.4 ± 0.1
million, -42%) were below their 1996-2003
averages (P<0.052). All other species were similar
to 2003 estimates and 1996-2003 averages.
The status of the American black duck (Anas
rubripes) has been monitored primarily by midwinter
surveys conducted in January in states of the Atlantic
and Mississippi Flyways. The trend in the winter
index for the total population is depicted in Figure 2.
Midwinter counts of American black ducks declined
relative to 2003 counts in both flyways. In both
flyways combined, a total of 226,700 American black
ducks were counted in midwinter inventories. This
was 9% lower than the 2003 index (248,900), and
20% lower than the 10-year mean (279,800). In the
Atlantic Flyway, the midwinter index of 206,400 was
down 8% from 224,600 in 2003, and was 9% below
the most recent 10-year mean (225,900). In the
Mississippi Flyway, the American black duck mid-winter
index decreased 17% from 24,300 in 2003 to
20,300, which is 62% below the 10-year mean
(53,900). In the eastern survey area, the 2004
estimate for breeding American black ducks
(730,000) was up 37% compared to last year but was
statistically similar to the 2003 estimate (533,000)
and the 1996-2003 average (498,000).
Trends in wood duck populations are monitored by
the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), a
series of roadside routes surveyed during May and
June each year. Wood ducks are encountered with
low frequency along BBS routes, limiting the amount
and quality of available information for analysis
(Sauer and Droege 1990). However, the BBS
provides the only long-term indices of this species'
regional populations. Trend analysis suggests that
wood duck numbers increased 4.3% per year over
the long-term (1966-2003, P<0.001)) and 3.7% over
the short-term (1980-2003, P=0.019). Specifically, in
the Atlantic Flyway, the BBS indicates a 4.9% annual
increase in wood ducks over the long-term (P<0.001)
and a 4.2% annual increase over the short-term
(P<0.001). In the Mississippi Flyway, the BBS
indicates a 3.9% annual increase over the long-term
(P<0.001), and a 3.5% annual increase over the
short-term (P=0.009, J. Sauer, U. S. Geological
Survey/Biological Resources Division, unpublished
data).
Weather and habitat conditions during the
summer months can influence waterfowl
production. Good wetland conditions increase
renesting effort and brood survival. In general,
2004 habitat conditions stabilized or improved
over most of the traditional survey area between
May and July. While there were no formal July
surveys flown this year, experienced crew leaders
14
Table 4. Duck breeding population estimates (in thousands) for the 10 most abundant species in the traditional
survey area.
Change from 2003 Change from LTA
Species 2003 2004 % P LTA a % P
Mallard 7950 7425 -7 0.177 7512 -1 0.762
Gadwall 2549 2590 +2 0.864 1664 +56 <0.001
American wigeon 2551 1981 -22 0.003 2637 -25 <0.001
Green-winged teal 2678 2461 -8 0.378 1849 +33 <0.001
Blue-winged teal 5518 4073 -26 <0.001 4508 -10 0.073
Northern shoveler 3620 2810 -22 0.003 2135 +32 <0.001
Northern pintail 2558 2185 -15 0.110 4182 -48 <0.001
Redhead 637 605 -5 0.681 625 -3 0.705
Canvasback 558 617 +11 0.458 562 +10 0.396
Scaup (greater and lesser combined) 3734 3807 +2 0.810 5249 -27 <0.001
Total b 36225 32164 -11 <0.001 33304 -3 0.053
a Long-term average (1955-2003).
b Includes species in table plus black duck, ring-necked duck, goldeneneyes, bufflehead, and ruddy duck. Excludes scoter, eider, long-tailed duck, merganser, and wood duck.
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates (in thousands) for the 10 most abundant species for the eastern survey
area.
Change from 2003
Change from
Average
Species 2003 2004 % P Average
a % P
Mergansers (common, red-breasted,
& hooded) 569 668 +17 0.439 537 +24 0.264
Mallard 383 368 -4 0.853 312 +18 0.358
American black duck 533 730 +37 0.234 498 +47 0.137
American wigeon 79 27 -66 0.133 68 -61 0.004
Green-winged teal 452 554 +22 0.558 356 +56 0.123
Lesser scaup 101 81 -20 0.629 81 0 0.996
Ring-necked duck 399 668 +67 0.095 479 +39 0.225
Goldeneye (common & Barrow’s) 768 430 -44 0.191 746 -42 0.052
Bufflehead 66 44 -34 0.260 60 -27 0.183
Scoters (surf, black, & white-winged) 237 261 +10 0.822 154 +70 0.200
Total b 3635 3905 +7 0.534 3343 +17 0.102
a Average from 1996-2003.
b Includes species in table plus gadwall, northern shoveler, northern pintail, eiders, and blue-winged teal. Excludes long-tailed duck, wood duck, redhead, canvasback, and
ruddy duck.
15
in Montana and the western Dakotas, the eastern
Dakotas, southern Alberta, and southern
Saskatchewan returned to their May survey areas
in early July to qualitatively assess habitat
changes between May and July. Biologists from
other survey areas communicated with local
biologists to get their impressions of 2004
waterfowl production and monitored weather
conditions. Habitat in some portions of the
prairies, particularly in the Dakotas and Alberta,
improved between May and July because of
abundant summer rain. However, there were few
birds in these areas because many had left the
prairies in the early spring when habitat conditions
were dry. Therefore, the production potential from
most prairie areas ranged from poor to good and
was generally worse than in 2003. Habitat
conditions in the northern and eastern areas are
more stable because of the deeper, more
permanent water bodies there. Because
temperatures were so cold in May, the outlook for
production from these areas remains fair in the
northern Prairie Provinces, and good to excellent
in the eastern survey area.
Regional Habitat and Population Status
A description of habitat conditions, populations,
and production for each for the major breeding areas
follows. More detailed reports of specific regions are
available in Waterfowl Population Surveys reports,
located on the Division of Migratory Bird
Management’s home page. Some of the habitat
information that follows was taken from these reports
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html).
Southern Alberta: The entire survey area
recorded below-normal winter precipitation, with
the exception of the Peace River and Cold River
regions. In the spring, precipitation in southern
Alberta was generally much below normal, except
for Red Deer, which had fair conditions for nesting
waterfowl. The prairie and aspen parklands (strata
26-29, 75) were in generally poor condition, with a
few areas along the Milk River Ridge in fair
condition. Stratum 76 ranged from poor to fair.
The usually good habitat within a 50-mile radius of
Edmonton was rated only fair this year. Overall,
large groups of ducks tended to congregate on
what little water was available. May ponds were
down 43% relative to 2003 (P<0.001), and were
30% below the long-term average (P<0.001).
Neither total ducks nor any of the individual
species surveyed differed from 2003 estimates,
but total ducks (-42%), mallards (-46%), American
wigeon (-62%), green-winged teal (–50%), blue-winged
teal (-41%), northern pintail (-78%), and
scaup (-66%) all remained well below long-term
averages (P<0.001). Estimates of total ducks, as
well as mallards, American wigeon, green-winged
teal, blue-winged teal, and northern pintails were
all at very low levels, ranking in the bottom 10% of
estimates since 1955. Redheads were also below
their long-tem average (-33%, P=0.065) Gadwall,
Northern shoveler, and canvasback numbers were
similar to long-term averages.
Habitat conditions improved slightly for
production since May in western and central
portions of the Alberta Prairies (strata 28-29) and
the Aspen Parklands (strata 26-27). Most areas
of southern Alberta received 85-115% of normal
precipitation since May 2004, but continued
above-normal precipitation is needed to restore
water storage in wetlands to normal levels.
Eastern portions of strata 26-29 remained in the
poor category for production potential, and
western areas were rated fair, with a few good
areas. Palmer drought indices suggest that
stratum 75 was largely in fair condition, and
stratum 76 was in poor condition as of July.
Southern Saskatchewan: Waterfowl breeding
habitat conditions across southern Saskatchewan
were generally much poorer than they were last
season. Despite normal or above-normal
precipitation over much of the survey area (Strata
30-35), above normal fall and winter temperatures
resulted in a poor frost seal, and most of this
moisture was absorbed into the ground. Very little
water remained on the surface for use by
migrating waterfowl. The long-term drought in this
region has taken a toll on the grasslands, and
much upland nesting cover was in poor condition
during the survey. The only bright spot was an
area of south-central Saskatchewan in the
grasslands (strata 32-33), especially important to
northern pintails, that had good water.
The May pond estimate was down 32% from
last year's count (P<0.001), and was 26% below
the long-term average (P<0.001). Except for
scaup, which were unchanged from their 2003
estimate, all other species in the region were
down relative to their 2003 estimates. American
wigeon were at their lowest levels since 1955.
Population estimates of many duck species were
below long-term averages (LTAs) as well. Total
ducks (-38% from 2003, -22% from LTA), mallards
(-24% from 2003, -23% LTA), American wigeon (-
41%, -70% from LTA), green-winged teal (-54%
16
from 2003, -46% from LTA), redheads (-52% from
2003, -31% from LTA), canvasbacks (-38% from
2003, -34% from LTA), and northern pintails (-
52% from 2003, -62% from LTA) were lower than
2003 estimates (P<0.022) and long-term averages
(P<0.026). Gadwall were 30% below their 2003
numbers (P=0.071), but remained 37% above
their long-term average (P=0.094). Blue-winged
teal and northern shovelers were 40% and 45%
below last year’s estimates, respectively
(P>0.022), but similar to their long-term averages
(P>0.166). Scaup were 56% below their long-term
average (P<0.001), but unchanged from their
2003 estimate (P=0.240).
The northeast Parklands region (stratum 31)
improved since the May survey. Upland habitat
was in good condition and most of this area had
good-excellent wetland conditions, which boded
well for re-nesting, late nesting and brood rearing
by waterfowl. The northwest portion of the
Parklands also improved, but has suffered an
extended drought, and will require much additional
precipitation to restore upland cover and wetland
habitat to normal. Upland cover was rated fair-good,
and water levels were good in existing
wetlands. Overall, recruitment potential was poor
in the southern portion of stratum 31, and fair in
the north. Grassland regions (strata 32-33) were
the most improved, but July conditions were
variable. West-central portions remained dry, but
in the few portions that had received moisture,
conditions were good in this very important
waterfowl nesting area. The south-central
grasslands between Regina and Moose Jaw were
very wet, with widespread flooding. While overall
conditions have improved, biologists were
reluctant to upgrade production predictions for the
survey area. Many ducks had left the area by mid-
May, and the cool, wet weather could reduce the
survival of broods that were produced. The area
was still rated fair to good for recruitment as of
July.
Southern Manitoba: A late spring snowstorm in the
central portion of the southern Manitoba survey area
(strata 36-40) caused early-nesting species to
abandon nests, but improved wetland conditions
from fair to good. Additional rain produced many
temporary wetlands as well as flooding, but
biologists thought that few additional birds moved
into the area as a result. The parkland habitat of
west-central Manitoba was rated good, with good
numbers of dabbling and diving ducks present.
Overall, conditions for renesting birds and late-nesting
species were good. May pond counts were
unchanged from the 2003 estimate (P=0.280) but
remained 20% below the long-term average
(P<0.001). Total ducks, northern shovelers,
redheads, and canvasbacks were similar to their
2003 estimates and long-term averages (P>0.129).
Mallards were 22% below their 2003 estimate
(P=0.032), but similar to their long-term average
(P=0.509). Northern pintail and scaup estimates
were similar to those of 2003 (P>0.176), but
remained 65% and 77% below long-term averages,
respectively (P<0.001). The gadwall estimate was
the highest since 1955 and was 57% higher than last
year’s (P=0.075), and 131% above the long-term
average (P=0.002). American wigeon were at their
lowest level since 1955 and was -78% below 2003
and 95% below the long term average (P<0.023).
Green-winged teal (-44%, -48% LTA), and blue-winged
teal (-33%, -27% LTA) were also below
2003 estimates (P<0.032) and long-term averages
(P<0.001).
In late May, the survey area received much
precipitation. Thus, although June precipitation
was 50% of average, and July precipitation was
average, as of July, water conditions in the
southern portions of the province, along the U.S.
border and near Whitewater Lake, were excellent,
and the pothole country near Minnedosa was
rated good-very good. Despite the apparently
good production conditions, few broods were seen
early on. Temperatures in late May and early June
were well below average, and coupled with May
precipitation, the cold may have reduced brood
survival of early nesting species such as mallards
and pintails. Observers did report more brood
sightings in July, and the good water conditions
improved the quality of upland cover.
Montana and Western Dakotas: In Montana (strata
41-42) and the western Dakotas (strata 43-44),
waterfowl production potential was rated fair, and
expected to be below average. In western South
Dakota, water conditions had deteriorated relative
to 2003 and many streams and wetlands were
dry. By contrast, there was abundant residual
nesting cover that likely benefited early-nesting
species such as mallards and northern pintails.
Water conditions in western North Dakota were
better, but apparent reductions of land enrolled in
the Conservation Reserve Program between
Bismarck and Dickinson meant that good upland
nesting cover was scarce there. In eastern
Montana, wetland conditions north of the Missouri
River were much better than to the south, and
habitat conditions were rated fair to marginally
good. The region south of the Missouri River was
17
plagued by continued drought, and projected
production was rated poor. Overall, May pond
counts in the entire survey area were up 25%
relative to 2003 (P=0.018), and slightly (15%)
higher than the long-term average (P=0.071). This
surprising rise in pond counts was due in part to
drought-induced segmentation of semi-dry rivers.
Total ducks and all individual species were similar
to their 2003 estimates (P>0.101). American
wigeon (-41%), northern pintails (-52%), and
scaup (-50%) all remained well below their long-term
averages (P<0.009). Green-winged teal were
at their highest recorded levels since 1955, and
were 177% above their long-term average for the
survey area (P<0.001).
Overall, habitat conditions in the area stabilized
or improved following May surveys. Brood rearing
conditions were good, and production should be
average along the Canadian border in eastern
Montana (stratum 41). In western South Dakota
(stratum 44) conditions were marginally good to
the northwest, but only fair to the southeast, with
mid-late nesters benefiting most from improved
habitat. In most portions of western North Dakota,
conditions were fair, with reduced pond numbers
and water levels. The extreme northwestern tip of
North Dakota was good for production, but overall
brood production in stratum 43 will be below
average. In eastern Montana south of the Missouri
River (stratum 42), late rains produced lush green
grass, which should produce good residual
nesting cover for 2005, but will benefit only the
latest nesters in 2004. Production will likely be
below normal in stratum 42. Overall production
potential for the survey area was below average
as of July.
Eastern Dakotas: As a result of a dry and relatively
mild winter, much of the breeding waterfowl
habitat in eastern South Dakota (Strata 48 and 49)
was considered poor. Temporary and seasonal
wetlands were absent, and many had been tilled.
Many artificial wetlands and small streams were
dry as well. Wetland conditions in the Prairie
Coteau were slightly better, and this area was
classified as fair. In North Dakota (strata 45-47),
wetland conditions were generally better. In much
of northern North Dakota good breeding habitat,
including seasonal and some temporary ponds,
was present, and nesting cover was adequate or
good. The remainder of eastern North Dakota was
rated fair. Both states received considerable rain
in mid-late May, but this likely arrived too late to
benefit early nesters, especially in South Dakota.
Later-nesting species and re-nesting females may
have benefited from this late precipitation,
especially in North Dakota. May ponds were 32%
below last year's figure (P=0.001), and 20% below
the long-term average (P=0.037). Estimates of
total ducks, mallards, gadwall, and scaup were
similar to those of 2003, but remained 29%, 77%,
117%, and 169% above long-term averages
respectively (P>0.002). Blue-winged teal counts
were down 23% relative to 2003 (P=0.062), but
were similar to the long-term mean (P=0.984).
Northern pintail numbers were 92% higher than in
2003 (P=0.020), but were 47% below their long-term
average (P<0.001). The green-winged teal
estimate was 159% higher than in 2003
(P=0.019), and 76% higher than the long-term
average (P=0.059). Canvasbacks were 93%
above their 2003 estimate (P=0.059), but similar
to their long-term average (P=0.230). American
wigeon, northern shovelers, and redheads were
similar to their 2003 estimates and their long-term
averages (P>0.133).
Weather throughout the crew area from May to
July was generally cooler and wetter than normal.
This pattern improved water levels and in some
areas, created “new” wetlands. The cool moist
weather helped the development of upland cover,
which was rated good or excellent as of July.
Over-water vegetation was also very good,
provided wetland basins were not recessed.
Habitat in southern South Dakota largely improved
from poor to marginally fair for production.
Wetlands in extreme southeast South Dakota, the
Leola Hills, the Prairie Coteau, and the northern
third of the drift plain maintained their fair status
and in some cases were marginally good for
production, an improvement over what had been
shaping up to be a near failure for production in
the state. North Dakota also benefited from the
cool, wet weather, but wetland conditions were
better there to begin with. Wetland conditions as
of July were good or very good in most of the
state, yet waterfowl occupancy appeared low,
especially on the drift plain. Response by late-nesting
and re-nesting birds to the late water will
likely be most pronounced in stratum 45, but
brood-rearing conditions are generally good
throughout North Dakota as of July. Moisture
gains, if maintained through the fall and winter,
portend good production conditions in this survey
area in 2005.
Northern Saskatchewan, Northern Manitoba, and
Western Ontario: In northern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba (strata 21-25), habitat conditions for
breeding waterfowl were fair to good. Most of
18
northern Manitoba was rated fair, and the western
edge of Manitoba and most of northern
Saskatchewan was in good condition. Conditions in
western Ontario (stratum 50) were rated good. In
the extreme southwestern portion of the study
area, near Big River, Saskatchewan, the timing of
the spring thaw was near normal, but was very
late in the remainder of northern Manitoba and
northern Saskatchewan. Nesting conditions in
northern Manitoba were also sub-optimal due to
low water levels in many streams and beaver
ponds. In western Ontario, spring was late, but
water levels were high, with abundant rainfall in
late May. Here, nesting was not expected to be
significantly affected by late phenology. The late
spring may actually have improved brood survival,
as most females were still incubating eggs during
the period of heavy rain, rather than tending newly
hatched broods, which are particularly vulnerable
to cold, wet weather.
Overall, the total-duck and green-winged teal
estimates for the region were similar to those of
2003 (P>0.160), but were 15% (P=0.033) and
96% (P<0.001) above their long-term averages.
American wigeon and northern pintails were also
similar to their 2003 estimates (P>0.236), but were
42% and 76% below their long-term averages,
respectively (P<0.001). Blue-winged teal were
67% below their 2003 estimate, and 78% below
their long-term average (P<0.006). Canvasbacks,
scaup, and northern shovelers were 277%, 64%,
and 226% above their 2003 estimates,
respectively (P<0.011), but similar to their long-term
averages (P>0.219). Mallard, gadwall and
redhead estimates were similar to those of 2003
and their long-term averages (P>0.417). As of
July, northern Saskatchewan was rated average
for production and northern Manitoba was rated
below average. June temperatures in western
Ontario were cooler than normal, and precipitation
above average, and normal production was
expected.
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and
Northwest Territories: In northern Alberta,
northeastern British Columbia, and the Northwest
Territories (strata 13-18, 20, 75-77), spring was late,
especially in the eastern area of the unit. Biologists
reported that large numbers of ducks apparently
over-flew the dry prairies. Most birds were
concentrated on the open wetlands on the west side
of the survey area, and had fewer opportunities to
nest on the east side, especially the early-nesting
species. The spring thaw came too late to benefit
most early-nesting species, but was right on
schedule for the later-nesting species. Breeding
conditions should also be excellent for scoters. Total-duck,
mallard, northern pintail, and scaup numbers
were similar to 2003 counts (P>0.160), but remained
19%, 30%, 50%, and 39% below their long-term
averages, respectively (P<0.001). Blue-winged teal
did not differ from their 2003 counts (P=0.389), but
remained 49% above their long-term average
(P=0.087). Gadwall (+82% above 2003, +211%
above LTA) and redhead (+150% above 2003, +97%
above LTA) numbers were higher than last year's
estimates and their long-term averages (P>0.066).
Green-winged teal, northern shoveler, and
canvasback estimates were similar to those of 2003
and to long-term averages (P>0.141).
Although much of northern Alberta and
northeastern British Columbia experienced a very
late spring, temperatures have been normal since
mid-June, though precipitation was 50% below
normal. As of July, production potential was rated
fair to good throughout stratum 20 and in stratum
77 west of the Birch and Caribou Mountains. In
the northeastern portion of stratum 77 that
experienced a record late spring, production
should be poor to fair.
Alaska, Yukon Territory, and Old Crow Flats: In
Alaska, the Yukon Territory, and Old Crow Flats
(strata 1-12), breeding conditions depend largely
on the timing of spring phenology, because
wetland conditions are less variable than on the
prairies. In general, this region experienced an
early spring breakup, with the exception of the
North Slope. Areas south of the Brooks Range
experienced a widespread, record-setting early
spring breakup. Snow and ice melt, and greening
of vegetation occurred rapidly, with only minor
flooding. Conditions on the Old Crow Flats in the
Yukon appeared more normal. Estimates of all
duck species were similar to those of 2003, with
the exception of green-winged teal, which were
21% below their 2003 count (P=0.068), but 140%
above their long-term average (P<0.001). Total
duck (+57%), mallard (+138%), American wigeon
(+81%), and northern shoveler estimates (+156%)
were all higher than their long-term averages
(P<0.001). Gadwall, blue-winged teal, northern
pintail, redhead, canvasback, and scaup
populations all remained similar to their long-term
averages (P>0.121).
Warm temperatures and moisture across much
of Alaska during June and July and minimal
flooding largely maintained the excellent
conditions observed by biologists in May. Overall,
excellent production is anticipated for most of
19
Alaska, with good conditions prevailing on the Old
Crow Flats. The interior boreal forest experienced
warm temperatures with little moisture, and
experienced the third-worst wildfire season on
record. This may have negatively affected
waterfowl production.
Eastern Survey Area: Breeding habitat conditions
were generally good to excellent in the eastern
U.S. and Canada (strata 51-56 and 62-69). Timing
of the spring thaw was normal in Maine and
conditions were excellent there and in the Maritime
Provinces and Newfoundland, but late in Labrador,
where nesting was delayed for birds at higher
elevations and production potential was rated good.
Production may be somewhat adversely affected
in parts of Labrador, where snow and ice
persisted into June, but otherwise should be
normal for this region. Much of central and southern
Quebec experienced a long, cold, dry winter, and a
dry spring. Despite the lack of precipitation, wetlands
were sufficiently abundant and in adequate condition,
and most areas were rated good. Below-average
temperatures persisted through July and substantial
June rainfall caused some flooding. The
southwestern portion of the province was drier, and
habitat there was fair to good. The production outlook
for Quebec is normal to slightly below normal. Spring
weather in southern Ontario was variable, as
initially cool temperatures gave way to mild
weather. Wetlands in southern Ontario and along the
St. Lawrence Valley were in generally good
condition.
Following the survey, several weeks of severe
spring thunderstorms led to flooding in portions of
southwestern Ontario, which may have negatively
impacted early nests there. Good wetland
conditions persisted in southern Ontario and the
St. Lawrence Valley of Ontario through July.
Production there is expected to be normal this
year. Spring was slightly delayed in central
Ontario, but wetlands were in good condition and
production should be normal. Spring was also
slightly delayed in the western James Bay Lowlands
of Ontario; however, the survey in late May revealed
little remaining lake ice, good water conditions, and
well-distributed birds. The production outlook for this
region was normal. The ring-necked duck
population estimate in May was 67% above the
2003 estimate (P=0.095), but similar to the long-term
average (P=0.225). American wigeon and
goldeneyes were similar to their 2003 estimates
(P>0.133), but were 61% (P=0.004) and 42%
(P=0.052) below their long-term averages. None
of the other species, or the total duck estimate,
differed from 2003 estimates or long-term
averages (P>0.133).
Other areas: Conditions were dry in many areas
along the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada.
Breeding habitat conditions in British Columbia
were the worst on record, as indicated by the
greatest number of dry or partially dry wetlands
within the survey area, and the lowest numbers of
total ducks and mallards recorded since the
survey began in 1988. Mild temperatures and low
precipitation during late winter produced a gradual
snow thaw that reduced runoff and led to poor
wetland conditions. Approximately 6,300 ducks
were observed in British Columbia’s annual survey,
which was similar to the 2003 count and the long-term
average (P>0.277). Mallard numbers were 27%
below the long-term average (P=0.015). Conditions
were also dry in Washington, and pothole numbers
were down 35% from 2003 and were 36% below the
long-term average because the pothole region did
not receive the snowmelt runoff it needed to fill
basins. The 2004 total-duck estimate in Washington
was 114,900, down 10% from last year and 28%
below the long-term average. Mallards were up
slightly from 39,800 in 2003 to 40,000 in 2004, but
remain 27% below the long-term average. In
California, winter precipitation was average, but
spring was dry in most of the state. Good conditions
prevailed in the northeastern part of the state, where
good production was expected. Elsewhere, duck
nesting effort will likely be lower than normal. The
total-duck estimate was 412,800, 23% lower than last
year's (P=0.079), and 31% below the long-term
average (P<0.001). Mallards (262,400) were not
significantly different from their 2003 estimate but
were 30% below their long-term average (P<0.003).
In Oregon, similar trends existed for estimates of total
ducks and mallards. Both were similar to those of
2003 (P>0.563), but were 16% and 21% below their
long-term averages, respectively (P>0.042).
Conditions were also generally dry in the interior-western
U.S. In Nebraska, the dry conditions which
began in 2001 and 2002 continued into the fall and
winter of 2003-2004. In the spring of 2004, biologists
counted the lowest number of water areas since
standard survey methods were implemented in 1999.
This was also the lowest count for mallards, blue-winged
teal, gadwall, and pintail. The estimated
breeding population of ducks of almost 70,000 birds
was 27% below the 2003 estimate and 61% below
the 1999-2003 average. Nevada suffered its fourth
year of drought; many wetlands were dry, as were
two complete river systems. Nonetheless, duck
numbers were up. This increase in duck numbers
may reflect the timing of the survey or birds being
20
compressed onto the few remaining wetlands. Total
ducks numbered 24,200, compared to 21,100 in
2003. At 1,700, mallard numbers were similar to the
2003 count. Duck breeding habitat conditions were
still poor to fair in southern and eastern Wyoming, but
spring precipitation improved conditions in northeast
Wyoming. Conditions in Colorado were improved
over 2003, but were still only fair. Cool, wet weather
in the late spring may have delayed nesting. Overall,
only fair to poor duck production is expected from
Colorado this year.
Habitats around the Great Lakes were also
somewhat dry in the spring, but seemed to be in
better shape than those to the west, especially after
many received abundant rain during the late spring.
In Minnesota, pond numbers declined 19% relative to
2003, and were 20% below the 1968-2003 average.
Mallard numbers (375,300) were statistically similar
to the 2003 estimate. At 353,200, blue-winged teal
were 83% higher than the 2003 estimate (P=0.02),
and 54% above the long-term average. Total ducks
numbered 1,008,300, up 40% from 2003, 20% higher
than the 10-year average, and 60% above the long-term
average. During the Wisconsin waterfowl survey
(April 27-May 7) conditions were dry and wetland
numbers were below the long-term mean. However,
abundant rain beginning in late May and continuing
into June improved wetland conditions. Wisconsin
total duck numbers were 22% higher than the 2003
estimate and 58% above the 1973-2003 average.
Mallard numbers were 12% below the 2003 level, but
32% above the long-term mean. In Michigan, the
total duck estimate was 20% higher than last year’s.
Mallard numbers did not differ from last year’s count,
but remained 25% below the long-term average
(P=0.054).
In the Atlantic Flyway states along the East Coast
of the U.S., habitat conditions for nesting waterfowl
were good again this year. Normal to above-normal
late-winter and early-spring rains kept wetlands full,
providing ample nesting habitat. Variable weather
made for variable nest initiation dates. Late-spring
rains likely helped waterfowl broods in the southern
portion of this region, but coupled with cool
temperatures in the northern portions, may have
reduced brood survival there. Total duck and mallard
numbers from the Atlantic Flyway’s Breeding
Waterfowl survey were similar to the 2003 estimates
(P>0.313), and to their long-term averages
(P>0.854).
Mallard Fall-flight Index
The mid-continent mallard population is composed
of mallards from the traditional survey area,
Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and is 8.4 ± 0.3
million (Fig. 3). This is similar to the 2003 estimate of
8.8 ± 0.4 million (P=0.289). The 2004 mid-continent
mallard fall-flight index is 9.4 ± 0.1 million, statistically
similar to the 2003 estimate of 10.3 ± 0.1 million birds
(P=0.467). These indices were based on revised
mid-continent mallard population models, and
therefore, differ from those previously published
(USFWS Adaptive Harvest Management Report
2004, Runge et al. 2002).
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Millions
Fig. 3. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size
of the mallard population in the fall.
REFERENCES
Drought Watch on the Prairies, 2004. Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada.
(www.agr.ca/pfra/drought.htm).
Environment Canada, 2004. Climate Trends and
Variations Bulletin. Green Lane Internet
Publication,Downsview,ON.
(www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/).
NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility.
2004. Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.
Washington, DC.(www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf).
Runge, M. C., F. A. Johnson, J. A. Dubovsky, W.
L. Kendall, J. Lawrence, J. Gammonley.
2002. A revised protocol for the Adaptive
Harvest Management of Mid-Continent
Mallards. (migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/
ahm02/MCMrevise2002.pdf)
Sauer, J.R., and S. Droege. 1990. Wood duck
population trends from the North American
Breeding Bird Survey. Pages 159-165 in L.H.
Frederickson, G. V. Burger, S.P. Havera, D.A.
Graber, R.E. Kirby, and T.S. Taylor, eds.
Proceedings of the 1988 North American Wood
Duck Symposium, St. Louis, MO.
21
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2004. Adaptive
Harvest Management: 2004 Duck Hunting
Season. U.S. Dept. Interior, Washington, D.C.
35pp. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2004.
Waterfowl Population Survey Section area
reports.
Wilkins, K. A., and M. C. Otto. 2004. Trends in
duck breeding populations, 1955-2004. U.S.
Dept. Interior, Washington, D.C. 19pp.
22
STATUS OF GEESE AND SWANS
Abstract: We provide information on the population status and productivity of North American Canada geese
(Branta canadensis), brant (B. bernicla), snow geese (Chen caerulescens), Ross’s geese (C. rossii), emperor
geese (C. canagica), white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) and tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus). The
timing of spring snowmelt in northern goose and swan nesting areas varied in 2004 from very early in western
Alaska to very late in areas near Hudson Bay and in northern Quebec. Reproductive success of geese and
swans in areas that experienced near-average spring phenology might have been reduced by persistent snow
cover and harsh conditions that encompassed a large expanse of migration and staging habitat. Of the 26
populations for which current primary population indices were available, 7 populations (Atlantic Population,
Aleutian, and 3 temperate-nesting populations of Canada geese; Pacific Population white-fronted geese; and
Eastern Population tundra swans) displayed significant positive trends, and only Short Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese displayed a significant negative trend over the most recent 10-year period. The forecast for
production of geese and swans in North America in 2004 is improved from 2003 in the Pacific Flyway, but
generally similar to, or lower than, 2003 for the remainder of North America.
This section summarizes information regarding the
status, annual production of young, and expected fall
flights of goose and tundra swan populations in North
America. Information was compiled from a broad
geographic area and is provided to assist managers
in regulating harvest. We have used the most widely
accepted nomenclature for various waterfowl
populations, but they may differ from other published
information. Some of the goose populations
described herein are comprised of more than 1
subspecies and some light goose populations
contain lesser snow geese and Ross’s geese.
Most populations of geese and swans in North
America nest in the Arctic or subarctic regions of
Alaska and Canada (Fig. 1), but several Canada
goose populations nest in temperate regions of the
United States and southern Canada (“temperate-nesting”
populations). Populations are monitored by
various methods on breeding, migration, or wintering
areas. The annual production of young by northern-nesting
geese is influenced greatly by weather
conditions on the breeding grounds, especially the
timing of spring snowmelt and its impact on the
initiation of nesting activity (i.e., phenology).
Persistent snow cover reduces nest site availability,
delays nesting activity, and often results in depressed
reproductive effort and productivity. In general,
goose productivity will be better than average if
nesting begins by late May in western and central
portions of the Arctic, and by early June in the
eastern Arctic. Production usually is poor if nest
initiations are delayed much beyond 15 June. For
temperate-nesting Canada goose populations,
recruitment rates are less variable, but productivity is
influenced by localized drought and flood events.
METHODS
Population estimates for geese are derived from a
variety of surveys conducted by biologists from
federal, state, and provincial agencies, and
universities (Appendices B, J, and K). Surveys
include the Midwinter Survey (MWS, conducted each
January in wintering areas), the Breeding Population
and Habitat Survey (BPHS, see Duck section of this
report), surveys specifically designed for various
populations, and others. When survey methodology
allowed, 95% confidence intervals were presented
with population estimates. The 10-year trends of
population estimates were calculated through
regression of the natural logarithm of survey results
on year, and slope coefficients were presented and
tested for equality to zero (t-test). Changes in
population indices between the current and previous
years were calculated, and, where possible,
assessed with a z-test using the sum of sampling
variances for the 2 estimates. Primary population
indices, those related to population objectives, are
described first in population-specific sections.
Due to the completion of this report prior to final
field assessment of goose and swan reproduction,
the annual productivity of most goose populations
can only be predicted qualitatively. Information on
habitat conditions and forecasts of productivity were
based primarily on information from various waterfowl
surveys and interviews with field biologists. These
reports provide reliable information for specific
locations but may not provide accurate assessment
for the vast geographic range of waterfowl
populations.
23
Fig. 1. Important goose nesting areas in Arctic and subarctic North America.
La Perouse Bay
Cape Henrietta
Maria
Greenland
Banks
Island
Bylot
Island
Southampton
Island
Ungava
Peninsula
James
Bay
Akimiski
Island
McConnell
River
Queen
Maud
Gulf
Copper
River
Yukon River
Kuskokwim River
Yukon-Kuskokwim
(Y-K) Delta
Baffin Island
Foxe
Basin
Labrador
Plain of
Koukdjuak
Wrangel
Island
Anderson
River
Mackenzie
River Delta
Victoria I
C. Churchill
North Slope
Hudson Bay
24
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Conditions in the Arctic and Subarctic
Spring phenology varied widely throughout North
America in 2004. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and
much of the rest of Alaska reported a very early
spring snowmelt, minimal flooding, and favorable
conditions for nesting geese. In contrast, snow cover
was very persistent near Hudson Bay, the Ungava
Peninsula, and a broad expanse of migration and
staging habitats across Canada’s boreal forest. The
snow and ice cover graphic (Fig. 2, National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration) illustrates the more
extensive snow cover across Canada’s subarctic
region this year compared with 2003.
Fig. 2. The extent of snow and ice cover in North America on 2
June 2003 and 2 June 2004 (data from National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration).
Conditions in Southern Canada and the United
States
Conditions that influence the productivity of
Canada geese vary less from year to year in these
temperate regions than in the Arctic and subarctic.
Given adequate wetland numbers and the
absence of flood events, temperate-nesting
Canada geese are reliably productive. In the
spring of 2004, wetland abundance and condition
in many western states remained depressed from
drought. Well-below average wetland abundance
in the Canadian prairies in 2004 may have
reduced goose productivity there. Most
temperate-nesting Canada goose populations,
with the exception of the Pacific and Rocky
Mountain Populations, likely experienced average
or above average production in 2004.
Status of Canada Geese
North Atlantic Population (NAP): NAP Canada
geese principally nest in Newfoundland and
Labrador. They generally commingle during winter
with other Atlantic Flyway Canada geese, although
NAP geese have a more coastal distribution than
other populations (Fig. 3).
During the 2004 BPHS, biologists estimated 67,800
(+ 34,500) indicated pairs (singles plus pairs) in NAP
range (strata 66 and 67), 12% higher (P=0.758) than
in 2003 (Fig. 4). Indicated pair estimates have
declined an average of 3% per year since surveys
were initiated in 1996 (P=0.289). A total of 197,200
(+ 115,200) Canada geese were estimated during
the BPHS, 48% higher than last year’s estimate
(P=0.341). Total goose estimates have declined an
average of 2% per year during 1996-2004
(P=0.419). The pair density determined by the 2004
expanded CWS helicopter plot survey was 18%
higher than the 2001-2003 average. Spring
conditions were favorable for geese in Newfoundland
and lower elevations of Labrador. A fall flight
somewhat larger than that produced in 2003 is
expected.
Year
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Fig. 4. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of North
Atlantic Population Canada geese breeding pairs during spring.
Atlantic Population (AP): AP Canada geese nest
throughout much of Quebec, especially along
Ungava Bay, the eastern shore of Hudson Bay, and
25
Tall Grass
Prairie
North
Atlantic
Southern
James Bay
Lesser and
Atlantic Taverner’s
Mississippi
Valley
Short Grass
Prairie
Pacific
Dusky
Cackling
Hi-line
Western Prairie
Eastern
Prairie
Atlantic
Flyway
Resident
Aleutian
Rocky
Mountain
Great
Plains
Mississippi
Flyway
Giant
Fig. 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America.
26
on the Ungava Peninsula. The AP winters from New
England to South Carolina, but the largest
concentrations occur on the Delmarva Peninsula
(Fig. 3).
AP surveys in 2004 estimated 174,800 (+ 29,500)
indicated breeding pairs, 11% more than last year
(P=0.358, Fig. 5). This population has increased
from a low of 29,000 breeding pairs in 1995. The
breeding pair estimates have increased an average
of 20% per year during 1995-2004 (P<0.001). The
estimated total spring population of 1,014,600 (+
167,700) geese in 2004 was 33% higher than last
year (P=0.39) but likely was inflated by the presence
of many molt migrants. Spring phenology was
delayed by cold May temperatures and persistent
snow cover throughout much of the northern AP
range. The proportion of indicated pairs observed as
singles (34%) was the lowest recorded since 1993
(mean=49%), suggesting a poor nesting effort. The
number of nests found on Hudson Bay study sites
was reduced 34%, and mean clutch size was
reduced 28% from 2003. At Ungava Bay study
areas, nesting effort was also reduced substantially,
clutch size was lower, and nest-destruction rates
were higher compared to last year. A fall flight
somewhat smaller than last year is expected.
Year
'88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Fig. 5. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Atlantic Population Canada goose breeding pairs in northern
Quebec.
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population (AFRP): This
population of large Canada geese inhabits southern
Quebec, the southern Maritime provinces, and all
states of the Atlantic Flyway (Fig. 3).
Spring surveys in 2004 in AFRP range indicated
there were 980,400 (+ 176,400) Canada geese in
this population (Fig. 6), about 10% fewer than in 2003
(P=0.424). These estimates have increased an
average of 2% per year over the last 10 years
(P=0.049). Nesting conditions in most states were
favorable and production was expected to be above
average. A large fall flight, similar to last year’s is
expected.
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Fig. 6. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population Canada geese during spring.
Southern James Bay Population (SJBP): This
population nests on Akimiski Island and in the
Hudson Bay Lowlands to the west and south of
James Bay. The SJBP winters from southern
Ontario and Michigan to Mississippi, Alabama,
Georgia, and South Carolina (Fig. 3).
Year
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Fig. 7. Estimated total population (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Southern James Bay Population Canada geese during spring.
Breeding ground surveys indicated a spring
population of 101,000 (+ 29,000) Canada geese in
2004, 5% lower than last year (P=0.785, Fig. 7).
These estimates have decreased an average of 1%
per year since 1995 (P=0.488). In 2004, surveys
estimated 37,600 (+ 11,700) breeding pairs, 16%
fewer than in 2003 (P=0.339) and a record low on
Akimiski Island. Surveyors indicated molt migrants
likely were not a factor in this year’s survey. Cold
temperatures in April and early May delayed
snowmelt and goose nest initiation in SJBP range,
especially north of the Albany River. On Akimiski
Island, nesting phenology was the second latest on
27
record, total nest loss was high (41.3%), and
estimated clutch size and the number of goslings
leaving nests was the lowest recorded since nest
monitoring began in 1993. Although conditions in
other portions of the SJBP breeding range may not
have been as severe as on Akimiski, a fall flight
smaller than that of 2003 is expected.
Mississippi Valley Population (MVP): The principal
nesting range of this population is in northern
Ontario, especially in the Hudson Bay Lowlands,
west of Hudson and James Bays. MVP Canada
geese primarily concentrate during fall and winter in
Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan (Fig. 3).
Breeding ground surveys conducted in 2004
indicated a total population of 727,000 (+ 153,800)
MVP Canada geese, a 37% increase from last spring
(P=0.049, Fig. 8). There is little trend in these
estimates since 1995 (1%, P=0.754). The presence
of molt migrant Canada geese likely inflated the total
goose estimate in 2004. Biologists estimated there
were 138,200 (+ 30,700) nests in 2004, 23% fewer
than in 2003 (P=0.104) and the second lowest
number recorded since 1989. Estimates of MVP
nests have declined an average of 3% per year
during 1995-2004 (P=0.134). Cold temperatures in
April and May left the coast of Hudson Bay between
Winisk and Cape Henrietta-Maria 95% snow covered
in late May. Conditions delayed the estimated peak
of hatch to June 30, the latest observed since nesting
studies were initiated in 1985. At Burntpoint Creek,
nest density was reduced by 74% compared with
2003. Reduced nesting effort, low clutch sizes, and
cold and wet weather during incubation and early
brood rearing will contribute to poor production in
2004. A fall flight reduced from 2003 is expected.
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Fig. 8. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Mississippi Valley Population Canada geese during spring.
Mississippi Flyway Giant Population (MFGP):
Giant Canada geese have been reestablished or
introduced in all Mississippi Flyway states. This large
subspecies now represents a significant portion of all
Canada geese in the Mississippi Flyway (Fig. 3).
This population has been monitored with spring
surveys since 1993. In 2004, the preliminary
population estimate was 1,582,200, 3% lower than
the final 2003 estimate of 1,633,000 (Fig. 9). These
estimates have increased an average of 6% per year
since 1995 (P<0.001). Although nesting conditions
were suboptimal in Iowa and Tennessee, most states
expected average or above average production in
2004. Another large fall flight is expected.
Year
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Fig. 9. Estimated number of Mississippi Flyway Giant Population
Canada geese during spring.
Eastern Prairie Population (EPP): These geese
nest in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of Manitoba and
concentrate primarily in Manitoba, Minnesota, and
Missouri during winter (Fig. 3).
The 2004 spring estimate of EPP geese was
290,700 (+ 36,800), 27% larger than the 2003
estimate (P=0.015, Fig. 10). Spring estimates have
increased an average of 4% per year over the last 10
years (P=0.101). The 2004 estimate of singles and
pairs was 145,500 (+ 19,800), 18% higher than last
year (P=0.091). There is no trend in these estimates
during 1995-2004. However, the estimate of
productive geese (singles and nesting pairs), 48,100,
declined (P=0.001) from 2003 to the second lowest
value record since 1984. May temperatures in EPP
range were the lowest on record since 1976. May
temperature data and delayed nest initiation indicate
a “bust” in production for EPP geese. This year,
biologists at Nestor One observed the latest median
hatch date (11 July), the lowest nest density
(0.008/ha), and lowest mean clutch size (2.2 eggs)
recorded during 1976-2004. A fall flight lower than
2003, including few young is expected.
28
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Fig. 10. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Eastern Prairie Population Canada geese during spring.
Western Prairie and Great Plains Populations
(WPP/GPP): The WPP is composed of mid-sized
and large Canada geese that nest in eastern
Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The GPP is
composed of large Canada geese resulting from
restoration efforts in Saskatchewan, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and
Texas. Geese from these breeding populations
commingle during migration with other Canada
geese along the Missouri River in the Dakotas and
on reservoirs from southwestern Kansas to Texas
(Fig. 3). These 2 populations are managed jointly
and surveyed during winter.
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Fig. 11. Estimated number of Western Prairie Population/Great
Plains Population Canada geese during winter.
During the 2004 MWS survey, 622,100 WPP/GPP
geese were counted, 11% more than the 2003 index
(Fig. 11). These indices have increased an average
of 7% per year since 1995 (P=0.001). A 2004 index
of the spring population in a portion of WPP/GPP
range from the BPHS was 690,000 (+ 123,800), 4%
larger than last year (P=0.749). The BPHS estimates
have also increased an average of 7% per year since
1995 (P<0.001). Goose production in the
northeastern portion of WPP range likely was
reduced by a delayed spring snowmelt similar to that
experienced within EPP range. Wetland abundance
in southern Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and in
Oklahoma was below average but other states
reported favorable nesting conditions. A heavy snow
in mid-May in the U.S. and Canadian prairies may
have impacted production. A fall flight similar to last
year’s is expected.
Tall Grass Prairie Population (TGPP): These small
Canada geese nest on Baffin (particularly on the
Great Plain of the Koukdjuak), Southampton, and
King William Islands; north of the Maguse and
McConnell Rivers on the Hudson Bay coast; and in
the eastern Queen Maud Gulf region. TGPP Canada
geese winter mainly in Oklahoma, Texas, and
northeastern Mexico (Fig. 3). These geese mix with
other Canada geese on wintering areas, making it
difficult to estimate the size of the population.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
*
* Changes in survey coverage or methodology - not comparable with previous surveys
*
Fig. 12. Estimated number of Tall Grass Prairie Population Canada
geese in the Central Flyway during winter.
During the 2004 MWS in the Central Flyway,
458,700 TGPP geese were tallied, 25% fewer than in
2003 (Fig. 12). These estimates have increased an
average of 7% per year during 1995-2004 (P=0.151).
Spring breakup near the McConnell River, Northwest
Territories was delayed by nearly 3 weeks. Limited
information suggests that spring phenology on
Southampton and Baffin Islands was later than in
2003 but near or only slightly later than average.
Important nesting areas were snow-free on 17 June
and 24 June on Baffin and Southampton Island,
respectively. In the Queen Maud Gulf spring snow
melt occurred earlier than average but goose arrival
was delayed, perhaps due to the persistent snow
cover on more southerly staging areas. Biologists on
Southampton Island indicated that snow goose
29
nesting effort appeared to be reduced from 2003, and
on Baffin Island a sample of snow goose clutch sizes
were slightly smaller than in 2003. Limited
information suggests production of TGPP Canada
geese will be below that of 2003.
Short Grass Prairie Population (SGPP): These
small Canada geese nest on Victoria and Jenny Lind
Islands and on the mainland from the Queen Maud
Gulf west and south to the Mackenzie River and
northern Alberta. These geese winter in
southeastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico,
and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles (Fig. 3).
During the 2004 MWS, biologists counted 203,600
SGPP Canada geese, 30% more than in 2003
(Fig. 13). These indices have declined 17% per year
since 1995 (P<0.001). A portion of the SGPP
breeding range in the Northwest Territories is
covered by the BPHS (strata 13-18). The 2004
BPHS estimated 97,500 (+ 36,400) SGPP geese, a
14% increase from 2003 (P=0.642). These
estimates show no trend during 1995-2004
(P=0.903). Spring snowmelt was earlier than
average near Queen Maud Gulf but goose arrival
was delayed, apparently by the persistent snow
cover in a broad strip from the Mackenzie River
mouth to the Hudson Bay coast. Nesting phenology
of Canada geese and light geese are influenced by
many of the same factors. Nest initiations of light
geese at Karrak Lake in 2004 were about 8 days
later than average and clutch sizes were slightly
below the long-term mean. Surveys on Victoria
Island indicated a good Canada goose nesting effort
there. Spring phenology on the mainland of the
western Canadian Arctic was delayed and breeding
success there will likely be reduced. With limited
specific information, production from SGPP geese is
expected to be no better than average.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Fig. 13. Estimated number of Short Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese during winter.
Hi-line Population (HLP): These large Canada
geese nest in southeastern Alberta, southwestern
Saskatchewan, eastern Montana and Wyoming, and
in Colorado. They winter in Colorado and in central
New Mexico (Fig. 3).
The 2004 MWS indicated a total of 215,600 HLP
Canada geese, which is 5% more than last year’s
estimate (Fig. 14). The MWS estimates have
increased an average of 4% per year since 1995
(P=0.128). An estimate of the spring population was
obtained from the 2004 BPHS in areas of
Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Montana. The BPHS
estimate was 200,500 (+ 50,100), 13% lower than
the 2003 estimate (P=0.470). These population
estimates have also increased 4% per year since
1994 (P=0.128). Wetland abundance in southern
Saskatchewan and Alberta in 2004 declined
substantially from 2003 and the long-term average,
and much of Montana and Wyoming remained in
drought. The fall flight of HLP geese is expected to
be similar to that of last year.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Fig. 14. Estimated number of Hi-line Population Canada geese
during winter.
Rocky Mountain Population (RMP): These large
Canada geese nest in southern Alberta and western
Montana, and the inter-mountain regions of Utah,
Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, and Colorado. They
winter mainly in central and southern California,
Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, and Montana (Fig. 3).
The estimated spring population derived from the
BPHS in 2004 was 152,500 (+ 53,800), 13% higher
than last year’s estimate (P=0.590). The BPHS
estimates have increased 3% per year during the last
10 years (P=0.062). During the 2004 MWS (no
survey conducted in Idaho this year), 111,600 geese
were counted, 11% fewer than in 2003 (Fig. 15).
MWS estimates have shown no trend since 1995
(P=0.376). Wetland abundance in southern Alberta
declined substantially from 2003 and the long-term
average, and much of RMP range remained in
30
drought. In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs and
production in Utah are above long-term averages,
and near the most recent 10-year average. The fall
flight of RMP geese is expected to be similar to last
year’s.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Fig. 15. Estimated number of Rocky Mountain Population Canada
geese during winter.
Pacific Population (PP): These large Canada
geese nest and winter west of the Rocky Mountains
from northern Alberta and British Columbia south
through the Pacific Northwest to California (Fig. 3).
The BPHS index of PP geese in Alberta (strata 76-
77) was 59,300 in 2004, 23% lower than in 2003
(P=0.480). These estimates have increased an
average of 5% per year since 1995 (P=0.138). Most
PP breeding areas remain under drought conditions
but average or better production was reported in
portions of Oregon and northeast California. Wetland
abundance in the range of the PP continues to be
reduced by drought. Predictions of PP production or
fall flight cannot be reliably made without more
information.
Dusky Canada Geese: These mid-sized Canada
geese predominantly nest on the Copper River Delta
of southeastern Alaska, and winter principally in the
Willamette and Lower Columbia River Valleys of
Oregon and Washington (Fig. 3).
The size of the population is estimated through
observations of marked geese during December and
January. The 2003-2004 population estimate was
14,900 (+ 3,500), 11% lower than in 2002-2003
(P=0.475, Fig. 16). These estimates have increased
an average 6% per year during the last 10-year
period (P=0.900). Preliminary results from the 2004
spring survey of the Copper River Delta indicated the
index of total dusky Canada geese increased 4%,
and singles and pairs increased 23% from last year’s
levels. Both estimates remain below the 1986-2003
average. The Copper River Delta experienced a
warm spring, with snowmelt about 1 week earlier
than average. Nesting phenology was early and an
extended euchalon run reduced bald eagle predation
on dusky geese. A fall flight higher than last year is
expected.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
5
10
15
20
25
30
Fig. 16. Estimated number of dusky Canada geese during winter.
Cackling Canada Geese: Cackling Canada geese
nest on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) of
western Alaska. They primarily winter in the
Willamette and Lower Columbia River Valleys of
Oregon and Washington (Fig. 3).
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Fig. 17. Number of cackling Canada geese estimated from fall and
spring surveys.
The index used for this population was a fall
estimate from 1979-1998. Since 1999, the index has
been an estimate of the fall population derived from
spring counts of adults on the YKD. The 2004 fall
estimate is 130,200, 21% lower than in 2003. These
estimates have decreased an average of 1% per
year since 1995 (P=0.435, Fig. 17). Surveys in the
coastal zone of the YKD during spring 2004 indicated
little change in single and paired cackling geese, and
a decrease of 27% in total birds from 2003 estimates.
An early spring snowmelt led to advanced nesting
31
phenology in 2004. Estimated hatching dates for
cackling geese were 12 days earlier than average
and the earliest since 1982. YKD nesting surveys
indicated increases in nest numbers, mean clutch
size, and nest success. With the good production
outlook this year, a fall flight exceeding last year’s
is expected.
Lesser and Taverner’s Canada Geese: These
subspecies nest throughout much of interior and
south-central Alaska and winter in Washington,
Oregon, and California (Fig. 3). Taverner’s geese
are more associated with the North Slope and tundra
areas, while lesser Canada geese tend to nest in
Alaska’s interior. However, these subspecies mix
with other Canada geese throughout the year and
reliable estimates of separate populations are not
presently available.
The estimated number of Canada geese within
BPHS strata predominantly occupied by these geese
(strata 1-6, 8, 10-12) in 2004 decreased 29% from
2003 levels. These estimates have declined an
average of 2% per year since 1995 (P=0.123).
Throughout most of Alaska, spring phenology was
early and spring flooding was limited. Nesting
success of lesser Canada geese in the interior was
assessed as good and production should be above
average. Spring snowmelt on the North Slope was
delayed slightly but geese appeared to initiate nests
earlier than average. Production of these geese
should be above average.
Aleutian Canada Geese (ACG): These geese now
nest primarily on the Aleutian Islands, although
historically they nested from near Kodiak Island,
Alaska to the Kuril Islands in Asia. They now winter
along the Pacific Coast to central California (Fig. 3).
The Aleutian Canada goose was listed as
endangered in 1967 (the population numbered
approximately 800 birds in 1974) and was delisted in
2001.
An indirect population estimate based on
observations of neckbanded geese in California
during 2003-2004 was 69,900 (+ 11,600), 12%
higher than last year’s record high (P=0.459, Fig. 18).
These indirect estimates have increased an average
of 12% per year over the last 10 years (P<0.001).
The Aleutian Islands experienced low winter snowfall
and an early spring breakup and green-up. A survey
crew on Nizki Island in 2004 found more than 4 times
more nests than were found in 1998. Aleutian geese
there nested earlier in 2004 than previously recorded,
which should lead to good production.
Year
'74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Fig. 18. Number of Aleutian Canada geese estimated from
winter estimates and mark-resight methods.
Status of Light Geese
The term light geese refers to both snow geese
and Ross’s geese (including both white and blue
color phases), and the lesser (C. c. caerulescens)
and greater (C. c. atlantica) snow goose
subspecies. Another collective term, mid-continent
light geese, includes lesser snow and
Ross’s geese of 2 populations: the Mid-continent
Population and the Western Central Flyway
Population.
Ross’s Geese: Most Ross's geese nest in the
Queen Maud Gulf region, but increasing numbers
nest along the western coast of Hudson Bay and
Southampton, Baffin, and Banks Islands. Ross's
geese are present in the range of 3 different
populations of light geese and primarily winter in
California, New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico, with
increasing numbers in Louisiana and Arkansas (Fig.
19).
Periodic photo-inventories and annual surveys in
the Queen Maud Gulf indicate the spring Ross’s
goose population has increased rapidly and has
exceeded 800,000 geese in recent years. Annual
estimates of total population size in winter are not
available, but surveys on wintering areas of light
geese indicate increases in range, number, and
proportions of Ross's geese. The largest Ross’s
goose colony is near Karrak Lake in the Queen Maud
Gulf. Researchers estimated that 433,800 adult
Ross’s geese nested there in 2003, a 19% increase
from 2002 (Fig. 20). These estimates have
increased an average of 11% per year from 1995-
2003 (P<0.001). Spring snowmelt was earlier than
average near Queen Maud Gulf but goose arrival
was delayed, apparently by the persistent snow
cover in a broad strip from the Mackenzie River
mouth to the Hudson Bay coast. Nest initiation at
32
Atlantic
Brant
Pacific
Brant
Fig. 19. Approximate ranges of brant and snow, Ross's, and white-fronted goose populations in North America.
Pacific Mid-continent
Populations of Greater
White-fronted Geese
Mid-continent
Western Central
Flyway
Populations of
Light Geese
Wrangel
Island
Populations of
Brant
Ross's
Geese
Greater
Snow
Geese
Western
Arctic
Populations of
Light Geese
33
Karrak Lake in 2004 was about 8 days later than
average and clutch sizes were reduced from the
long-term mean. Weather conditions during the
incubation period were generally unfavorable.
Increasing numbers of Ross’s geese are nesting
near the McConnell River, where nest initiation was
delayed by about 3 weeks compared to 2003. Nest
success there was poor in 2004. Under similar
circumstances of near-average spring phenology on
major light goose breeding areas and broad areas of
snow cover in migration habitats in 2002, harvest age
ratios for Ross’s geese were depressed
considerably. Conditions in 2004 were similar to
those in 2002, but nesting conditions at McConnell
River and incubation weather in the Queen Maud
Gulf were harsher this year. Overall, Ross’s geese
are expected to experience below average
production this year. The size of the fall flight cannot
be predicted without an annual index to the size of
the total breeding population.
Year
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03
Thousands
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Fig. 20. Estimated number of nesting adult Ross’s geese at Karrak
Lake Colony, Nunavut.
Mid-continent Population Light Geese (MCP): This
population, including lesser snow geese and
increasing numbers of Ross’s geese, nests along the
west coast of Hudson Bay and on Southampton and
Baffin Islands (Fig. 19). These geese winter primarily
in eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
During the 2004 MWS, biologists counted
2,154,100 light geese, 12% fewer than last year (Fig.
21, a portion of Louisiana was not surveyed in 2004).
Due to declines in these indices since 1997, the
1995-2004 data now indicate an average decline of
2% per year (P=0.087). Biologists on Southampton
and Baffin Islands during June reported snow and ice
conditions similar to, or slightly delayed from last
year. However, goose arrival and nest initiation
might have been delayed by persistent snow cover
on migration areas near Hudson Bay. Under similar
conditions in 2002, harvest age ratios for light geese
were depressed substantially. Clutch sizes from a
small sample of snow goose nests on Baffin Island
were slightly reduced from those observed in 2003.
Survey biologists’ impressions were that nesting
effort on Southampton Island was reduced from
2003. High nest destruction rates were reported from
3 Hudson Bay Colonies. At La Perouse Bay, spring
phenology was extremely late in 2004. Biologists
there suggest the late nesting phenology and natural
senescence of food plants with fall photo-period will
yield poor survival of late hatched goslings. The
production and fall flight of MCP geese likely will be
reduced from 2003 levels when nesting conditions
were favorable.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Fig. 21. Estimated number of Mid-continent Population light geese
(lesser snow and Ross’s geese) during winter.
Western Central Flyway Population (WCFP): This
population is composed primarily of snow geese but
includes a substantial proportion of Ross's geese.
WCF geese nest in the central and western
Canadian Arctic, with large nesting colonies near
the Queen Maud Gulf and on Banks Island. These
geese stage during fall in eastern Alberta and
western Saskatchewan and concentrate during
winter in southeastern Colorado, New Mexico, the
Texas Panhandle, and the northern highlands of
Mexico (Fig. 19).
WCFP geese wintering in the U.S. portion of their
range are surveyed annually, but the entire range,
including Mexico, is surveyed only once every 3
years. In the U.S. portion of the survey, 135,300
geese were counted in January 2004, 28% more
than last year (Fig. 22). There has been no trend in
growth for this population during 1995-2004
(P=0.783). Spring snowmelt was earlier than
average near Queen Maud Gulf but goose arrival
was delayed, apparently by the persistent snow
cover in a broad strip from the Mackenzie River
mouth to the Hudson Bay coast. A BPHS survey
34
crew in southern Saskatchewan observed relatively
high numbers of geese in May 2004, which may
have reflected a suspended northward migration.
Nest initiation at Karrak Lake in 2004 was about 8
days later than average and clutch sizes were
reduced from the long-term mean. Under the
circumstance of near-average spring phenology on
major light goose breeding areas and broad areas of
snow cover in migration habitats in 2002, harvest age
ratios for light geese were depressed considerably.
Weather conditions during the incubation period were
generally unfavorable for geese in the Queen Maud
Gulf. Spring phenology on Banks Island was
reported as late, and Inuvialuit residents reported a
reduced nesting effort there. Overall, production is
expected to be below average for this population.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
Fig. 22. Estimated number of Western Central Flyway
Population light geese during winter in the United States.
Western Arctic/Wrangel Island Population
(WAWI): Most of the snow geese in the Pacific
Flyway originate from nesting colonies in the
western and central Arctic (WA: Banks Island, the
Anderson and Mackenzie River Deltas, the
western Queen Maud Gulf region) or Wrangel
Island (WI), located off the northern coast of
Russia. The WA segment of the population
winters in central and southern California, New
Mexico, and Mexico; the WI segment winters in
the Puget Sound area of Washington and in
northern and central California (Fig. 19). In winter,
WA and WI segments commingle with light geese
from other populations in California, complicating
winter surveys.
The fall 2003 estimate of WAWI snow geese
was 587,800, 2% lower than estimated in 2002
(Fig. 23). Fall estimates have increased 4% per year
during 1994-2003 (P=0.132). Spring phenology on
Banks Island was reported as late, and Inuvialuit
residents reported a reduced nesting effort there.
Surveys indicated little nesting effort at Andersen
River or Kendall Island in 2004. At Wrangel Island’s
Tundra River colony, nesting phenology was near
average. Preliminary estimates from biologists on
Wrangel Island include a spring population of
110,000, >28,000 nests, a mean clutch size of 3.6
eggs, and 75% nest success. These estimates are
consistent with above average production. A fall
flight similar to last year’s is expected.
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Fig. 23. Estimated number of Western Arctic/Wrangel Island
Population light geese during fall.
Greater Snow Geese (GSG): This subspecies
principally nests on Bylot, Axel Heiberg, Ellesmere,
and Baffin Islands, and on Greenland. These geese
winter along the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to
North Carolina (Fig. 19).
This population is monitored on their spring staging
areas near the St. Lawrence Valley in Quebec.
Using improved methodology (use of 5 survey aircraft
rather than 3) the preliminary estimate from spring
2004 was 957,600 (+ 81,100), 41% higher than the
last year’s final estimate (678,000, Fig. 24). Spring
estimates of greater snow geese have increased an
average of 2% per year since 1995 (P=0.155). The
number of snow geese counted during the 2004
MWS in the Atlantic Flyway was 552,100, a 37%
increase from the previous survey. Midwinter counts
have increased an average of 5% per year during
1995-2004 (P=0.059). The largest known greater
snow goose nesting colony is on Bylot Island. There,
initial snowmelt and nesting effort occurred earlier
than average but a week of cold and snow
interrupted and prolonged the nest initiation period.
Overall, nesting effort will be reduced from the high
level in 2003. Despite high nest success, near
average clutch sizes, and good weather during the
hatching period, biologists expected only average
production. A fall flight similar to last year’s is
expected.
35
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Fig. 24. Estimated number of greater snow geese during spring.
Status of Greater White-fronted Geese
Pacific Population White-fronted Geese (PP):
These geese primarily nest on the Yukon Delta of
Alaska and winter in the Central Valley of California
(Fig. 19).
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Mid-continent Population
Pacific Population
Fig. 25. Estimated number of Mid-continent and Pacific Population
greater white-fronted geese during fall.
The index for this population was a fall estimate
from 1979-1998. Since 1999, the index has been a
fall population estimate derived from spring surveys
of adults on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) and
Bristol Bay. The 2004 fall estimate is 374,900, 11%
lower than in 2003 (Fig. 25). These estimates have
increased an average of 3% per year since 1995
(P=0.049). Spring aerial surveys in the YKD coastal
zone indicated decreases in total white-fronts (15%)
and breeding pairs (7%) from 2003 levels. Spring
estimates of total white-fronted geese on the entire
YKD and Bristol Bay have increased an average of
2% per year from 1995-2004 (P=0.122). An early
spring snowmelt led to advanced nesting phenology
in 2004. The number of nests found during YKD
nesting surveys in 2004 was the highest recorded
since 1982. Clutch sizes and nest success were also
above average. A fall flight similar to last year’s is
expected.
Mid-continent Population White-fronted Geese
(MCP): These white-fronted geese nest across a
broad region from central and northwestern
Alaska to the central Arctic and the Foxe Basin.
They concentrate in southern Saskatchewan
during the fall and in Texas, Louisiana, and
Mexico during winter (Fig. 19).
During the fall 2003 survey in Saskatchewan and
Alberta, biologists counted 528,200 MCP geese, a
decrease of 17% from the 2002 count (Fig. 25).
During 1994-2003, these estimates have declined
an average of 3% per year (P=0.270). Spring
phenology in MCP range varied from early in
Alaska’s interior to late in the western Canadian
Arctic. In the Queen Maud Gulf region spring
phenology was earlier than average but goose
arrival may have been delayed by the persistent
snow cover in a broad strip from the Mackenzie
River mouth to the Hudson Bay coast. On
Alaska’s North Slope white-fronted goose broods
were observed earlier than average. Production
of white-fronted geese in 2004 was assessed as
above average in interior Alaska, likely near
average or slightly below near Queen Maud Gulf
and Victoria Island, and below average in the
western Canadian Arctic. A fall flight somewhat
lower than last year’s is expected.
Status of Brant
Atlantic Brant (ATLB): Most of this population
nests on islands of the eastern Arctic. These brant
winter along the Atlantic Coast from
Massachusetts to North Carolina (Fig. 19).
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Atlantic brant
Pacific brant
Fig. 26. Estimated number of Atlantic and Pacific Population brant
during winter.
36
The 2004 MWS estimate of brant in the Atlantic
Flyway was 129,600, 21% fewer than last year’s
estimate (Fig. 26). These estimates have
increased an average of 2% per year for the most
recent 10-year period (P=0.227). Biologists on
Southampton and Baffin Islands during June
reported snow and ice conditions similar to or slightly
delayed from 2003. However, brant arrival to nesting
areas may have been delayed by persistent snow
cover on migration areas near Hudson and James
Bays in 2004. Under similar conditions in 2002,
harvest age ratios for brant were depressed
substantially.
Pacific Brant (PACB): These brant nest across
Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) and North
Slope, Banks Island, other islands of the western
and central Arctic, the Queen Maud Gulf, and
Wrangel Island. They winter as far south as Baja
California and the west coast of Mexico (Fig. 19).
The 2004 MWS in the Pacific Flyway and Mexico
resulted in a count of 119,200 brant, 12% more than
the previous year�����s count (Fig. 26). These
estimates have decreased an average of 2% per
year during 1995-2004 (P=0.081). Spring
phenology was early on the YKD, slightly delayed
on the North Slope, and delayed on Banks and
other northern islands. Brant nesting effort in 2004
increased in 4 of the 5 colonies on the YKD from
2004, but remained approximately 24% below the 8-
year average. Clutch sizes and nest success on
the YKD were higher than in the very poor year of
2003. Production of brant in 2004 should be
improved somewhat over 2003, but the fall flight is
expected to be similar to last year’s.
Western High Arctic Brant (WHA): This recently
recognized population of brant nests on the Parry
Islands of the Northwest Territories. The
population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon,
Alaska. They predominantly winter in Padilla,
Samish, and Fidalgo Bays of Washington and
near Boundary Bay, British Columbia, although
some individuals have been observed as far
south as Mexico. The development of a
management plan and monitoring program are
underway for this newly designated population.
According to satellite imagery, most of Melville
and Prince Patrick Islands remained snow
covered on 30 June 2004. This suggests
another poor production year for WHA brant.
Status of Emperor Geese
The breeding range of emperor geese is restricted
to coastal areas of the Bering Sea, with the largest
concentration on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta
(YKD) in Alaska. Emperor geese migrate relatively
short distances and primarily winter in the Aleutian
Islands (Fig. 27). Since 1981, emperor geese have
been surveyed annually on spring staging areas in
southwestern Alaska.
The spring 2004 emperor survey estimate was
47,400 geese, 34% lower than last year (Fig. 28).
These estimates have shown no trend for the last
10-year period (P=0.829). Spring indices of
breeding pairs from the YKD coastal survey
increased 19%, and the total bird index was
unchanged from 2003 levels. An early spring
snowmelt led to advanced emperor goose nesting
phenology in 2004, the earliest in 20 years. YKD
nesting surveys indicated record-high nest
numbers, and higher than average nest success
and mean clutch size. A fall flight larger than last
year’s is expected.
Eastern
Tundra
Swans
Western
Tundra
Swans
Emperor
Geese
Fig. 27. Approximate range of emperor geese, and eastern and
western tundra swan populations in North America.
37
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Fig. 28. Estimated numbers of emperor geese present during May
surveys.
Status of Tundra Swans
Western Population Tundra Swans: These
swans nest along the coastal lowlands of western
Alaska, particularly between the Yukon and
Kuskokwim Rivers. They winter primarily in
California, Utah, and the Pacific Northwest (Fig.
27).
The 2004 MWS estimate of 83,000 swans was
19% lower than the 2003 estimate (Fig. 29). These
estimates have shown no trend for the last 10
years (P=0.851). Spring phenology was very early
throughout most of western Alaska. Surveys in the
coastal zone of the YKD during spring 2004
indicated breeding swan and total swan numbers
increased 20% and 18% from 2003, respectively.
Nest plot surveys indicated an increase in swan
nests from 2003, a record-high clutch size (5.5
eggs) and above average nest success. A fall
flight larger than last year’s is expected.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
Eastern Population
Western Population
Fig. 29. Estimated numbers of Eastern and Western Population
tundra swans during winter.
Eastern Population Tundra Swans: Eastern
Population tundra swans nest from the Seward
Peninsula of Alaska to the northeast shore of
Hudson Bay and Baffin Island. These birds winter
in coastal areas from Maryland to North Carolina
(Fig. 27)
During the 2004 MWS, 95,000 eastern tundra
swans were observed, 12% fewer than last year
(Fig. 29). During the last 10 years, these
estimates have increased an average of 3% per
year (P=0.018). Spring phenology on the
mainland of the western Canadian Arctic was
delayed and breeding success there will likely be
reduced. Nesting conditions in most other major
breeding areas were near average or slightly
delayed (less important breeding areas around
Hudson Bay were greatly delayed) but swan
reproductive success also may have been
reduced by harsh conditions on migration habitats
in 2004. Overall, a fall flight lower that last year’s
is expected.
38
Appendix A. Individuals that supplied information on the status of ducks.
______________________________________________________________________________________
Alaska, Yukon Territory, and Old Crow Flats (Strata 1-12): B. Conant and D. Groves
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and Northwest Territories (Strata 13-18, 20, and 77): C.
Ferguson and W. Mullins
Northern Saskatchewan and Northern Manitoba (Strata 21-24): F. Roetker and P. Stinson
Southern and Central Alberta (Strata 26-29, 75, and 76):
Air E. Buelna Huggins and C. Pyle
Ground P. Pryor a, K. Froggatt b, S. Barry a, E. Hofman b, C. Procter a, M. Barr c, N. Clements a, N. Fontaine c, J.
Going a, R. Hunka c, T. Mathews c, B. Peers c, R. Russell b, J. Spenst c, and K. Zimmer a
Southern Saskatchewan (Strata 30-35):
Air P. Thorpe, T. Lewis, R. King, and C. Reighn
Ground D. Nieman a, J. Smith a, K. Warner a, K. Dufour a, C. Wilkinson a, K. Cochrane a, P. Nieman a, A.
Williams c, M. Schuster a, D. Caswell a, J. Leafloor a, P. Rakowski a, F. Baldwin a, R. Bazin a, J.
Caswell a, J. Galbraith a, C. Lindgren c, C. Meuckon a, and N. Wiebe a
Southern Manitoba (Strata 25 and 36-40):
Air R. King and C. Reighn
Ground M. Schuster a, D. Caswell a, J. Leafloor a, P. Rakowski a, F. Baldwin a, G. Ball b, J. Caswell a, J.
Galbraith a, C. Lindgren c, C. Meuckon a, N. Wiebe a, and R. Olson d
Montana and Western Dakotas (Strata 41-44):
Air J. Voelzer and R. Bentley
Ground K. Richkus and D. D’Auria
Eastern Dakotas (Strata 45-49):
Air J. Solberg and M. Rich
Ground P. Garrettson, A. Araya, K. Kruse, and T. Thorn
Central Quebec (Strata 68 and 69):
Air J. Wortham, D. Fronczak, and J. Goldsberry d
Helicopter D. Holtby b, R. Raftovich, and G. Boomer
New York, Eastern Ontario, and Southern Quebec (Strata 52-56): M. Koneff, D. Forsell, and M. Jones
Central and Western Ontario (Strata 50 and 51): K. Bollinger and W. Butler
Maine and Maritimes (Strata 62-67): J. Bidwell and M. Drut
British Columbia: A. Breault b, P. Watts d, and participants from the Canadian Wildlife Service, Ducks Unlimited Canada,
British Columbia Wildlife Branch, Canadian Parks Service, and private organizations
California:
Air D. Yparraguirre b and M. Weaver b
Ground D. Loughman d and J. Laughlin d
Colorado: J. Gammonley b
Michigan: S. Chadwick b, B. Dybas-Berger b, E. Flegler b, E. Kafcas b, A. Karr b, J. Niewoonder b, T. Oliver b, J.
Robison b, B. Scullonb, and V. Weigold b
Minnesota:
Air A. Buchert b and S. Cordts b
Ground S. Kelly, J. Artmann, W. Brininger, J. Holler, R. Papasso, T. Rondeau, S. Zodrow, K. Bosquet, L.
Deede, C. Hanson, D. Johnson, J. Kelley, A. Rife, and L. Wolff
Nebraska:
Air D. Benning d M. Vrtiska b, and N. Lyman d
Ground T. Krolikowski b
Data Analysis M. Vrtiska b
Nevada: C. Mortimore b and N. Saake b
39
Appendix A. Continued.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Northeastern U.S.:
Data Analysis B. Raftovich and H. Bellary
Connecticut M. Huang b K. Kubik b, and K. LeRose b
Delaware T. Whittendale b
Maryland unavailable
Massachusetts Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife personnel
New Hampshire E. Robinson b, J. Robinson b, E. Orff b, T. Walski b, K. Bordeau b, K. Bontaites b, W. Staats b, W. Ingham
b, J. Kelley b, W. Staats b, K. Tuttle b, A.Timmins b, and S. Wheeler b
New Jersey T. Nichols b, J. Garris b, C. Gruber b, B. Kirkpatrick b, J. Mangino b, J. Powers b, L. Widjeskog b, D.
Wilkinson b, J. Ziemba b, and N. Zimpfer b
New York Staff and volunteers of the NY State Department of Environmental Conservation
Pennsylvania M. Casalena b, J. Dunn b, J. Gilbert b, I. Gregg b, T. Hardisty b, K. Jacobs b, A. Keister b, M. Lovallo b,
B. Palmer b, C. Rosenbery b, M. Ternent b, and C. Thoma b
Rhode Island C. Brown b, L. Gibson b, T. Silvia d, and B. Tefft b
Vermont D. Sausville b, T. Appleton b, J. Austin b, J. Buck b, D. Blodgett b, F. Hammond b, J. Mlcuch b, and K.
Royar b
Virginia unavailable
Oregon:
Air B. Bales, B. Brim d , B. Bowen d, M. St. Louis b, T. Collom b, and M. Kirsch b
Data Analysis S. Nelson b, B. Bales b, and A. Turacek d
Washington: R. Friesz b , D. Base b, D. Volsen b, H. Ferguson b, P. Fowler b, J. Tabor b, J. Cotton b, T. McCall b, B.
Patterson b, S. Fitkin b, J. Heinlen b, M. Livingston b, J. Bernatowicz b, E. Krausz b, and T. Hames b
Wisconsin:
Air B. Bacon b, C. Cold b, C. Milestone b, and B. Glenzinski b
Ground K. Van Horn b, T. Bahti b, K. Belling b, N. Christel b, J. Cole b, P. David b, G. Dunsmoor b, B. Hill b, J.
Huff b, R. Lichtie b, D. Matheys b, R. McDonough b, K. Morgan b, A. Nelson b, D. North b, A. Oberc, b J.
Robaidek b, M. Windsor b, A. Kitchen, R. Krueger, L. Nieman, J. Ruwaldt, and G. VanVreede,
Wyoming: L. Roberts b
We also wish to acknowledge the following individuals and groups:
The states of the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyway and Regions 3, 4, and 5 of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for
collecting mid-winter waterfowl survey data, from which we extract black duck counts, and J. Serie, K. Gamble, B.
Raftovich, and D. Fronczak for summarizing the counts; and the volunteers of the North American Breeding Bird Survey
(a survey coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division [USGS/BRD]) for data used in
estimation of wood duck population trends, and J. Sauer, USGS for conducting the wood duck trend analyses.
a Canadian Wildlife Service
b State, Provincial, or Tribal Conservation Agency
c Ducks Unlimited - Canada
d Other organization
All others ��� U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
40
Appendix B. Individuals that supplied information on the status of geese and swans.
Flyway-wide and Regional Survey Reports: T. Bowman, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, M. Drut, J. Fischer, D.
Fronczak, K. Gamble, K. Kruse, R. Oates, R. Raftovich, J. Serie, D. Sharp, R. Stehn, R. Trost, and G. Walters
Information from the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey: see Appendix A
North Atlantic Population of Canada Geese

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U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Waterfowl
Population Status, 2004
WATERFOWL POPULATION STATUS, 2004
July 22, 2004
In North America the process of establishing hunting regulations for waterfowl is conducted annually. In the
United States the process involves a number of scheduled meetings in which information regarding the status of
waterfowl is presented to individuals within the agencies responsible for setting hunting regulations. In addition
the proposed regulations are published in the Federal Register to allow public comment. This report includes
the most current breeding population and production information available for waterfowl in North America and is
a result of cooperative efforts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the Canadian Wildlife Service
(CWS), various state and provincial conservation agencies, and private conservation organizations. This report
is intended to aid the development of waterfowl harvest regulations in the United States for the 2004-2005
hunting season.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Cover art: Redheads. Scot Storm, winner of the 2004-2005 Federal Duck Stamp design competition.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Waterfowl Population and Habitat Information: The information contained in this report is the result of the efforts
of numerous individuals and organizations. Principal contributors include the Canadian Wildlife Service, U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service, state wildlife conservation agencies, provincial conservation agencies from Canada,
and Direccion General de Conservacion Ecologica de los Recursos Naturales, Mexico. In addition, several
conservation organizations, other state and federal agencies, universities, and private individuals provided
information or cooperated in survey activities. Some habitat and weather information was taken from the
NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility (http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/), Environment Canada
(http://www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/), and Waterfowl Population Surveys reports
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html). Appendix A provides a list of individuals responsible for the
collection and compilation of data for the Ducks section of this report. Appendix B provides a list of individuals
who were primary contacts for information included in the Geese and Swans section. We apologize for any
omission of individuals from these lists, and thank all participants for their contributions. Without this combined
effort, a comprehensive assessment of waterfowl populations and habitat would not be possible.
Authors: This report was prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird
Management, Branch of Surveys and Assessment. The principal authors are Pamela R. Garrettson, Timothy J.
Moser, and Khristi Wilkins. The authors compiled information from the numerous sources to provide an
assessment of the status of waterfowl populations.
Report Preparation: The preparation of this report involved substantial efforts on the part of many individuals.
Support for the processing of data and publication was provided by Mark C. Otto, John Sauer and Judith P.
Bladen. Ray Bentley, John Bidwell, Karen Bollinger, Elizabeth Buelna, Bruce Conant, Carl Ferguson, Rod King,
Mark Koneff, Fred Roetker, John Solberg, Phil Thorpe, James Voelzer, and James Wortham provided habitat
narratives, reviewed portions of the report that addressed major breeding areas, and provided helpful
comments.
This report should be cited as: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2004. Waterfowl population status, 2004. U.S.
Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C. U.S.A.
All Division of Migratory Bird Management reports are available at our home page
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov).
Next year is the 50th anniversary of the May Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey.
Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.................................................................................................................... 2
Status of Ducks
METHODS ........................................................................................................................................ 5
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION........................................................................................................... 6
REFERENCES.................................................................................................................................. 21
Status of Geese and Swans
METHODS ........................................................................................................................................ 23
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION........................................................................................................... 25
Appendices
Appendix A. Individuals that supplied information on the status of ducks ........................................ 39
Appendix B. Individuals that supplied information on the status of geese and swans ..................... 41
Appendix C. Transects and strata for areas of the May Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat
Survey .................................................................................................................................. 43
Appendix D. Estimated number of May ponds and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada
and the northcentral U.S. ...................................................................................................... 44
Appendix E. Breeding population estimates for total ducks and mallards for states, provinces,
or regions that conduct spring surveys ................................................................................. 45
Appendix F. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for 10 species of ducks
from the traditional survey area ............................................................................................ 47
Appendix G. Total duck breeding estimates for the traditional and eastern survey areas in
thousands............................................................................................................................. 49
Appendix H. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for the 10 most abundant
species of ducks in the eastern survey area, 1996-2004 ..................................................... 50
Appendix I. Estimated number of July ponds and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada
and the northcentral U.S ....................................................................................................... 51
Appendix J. Population indices for North American Canada goose populations, 1969-2004 .......... 52
Appendix K. Population indices for light goose, greater white-fronted goose, brant, emperor
goose, and tundra swan populations during 1969-2004....................................................... 53
3
List of Duck Tables
Table 1. Estimated number of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the
northcentral U.S. .................................................................................................................. 8
Table 2. Total duck breeding population estimates .......................................................................... 10
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates ............................................................................... 11
Table 4. Duck breeding population estimates for the 10 most abundant species in the traditional
survey area. .......................................................................................................................... 15
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates for the 10 most abundant species in the eastern
survey area ........................................................................................................................... 15
List of Duck Figures
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the
northcentral U.S. .................................................................................................................. 8
Figure 2. Breeding population estimates, 95% confidence intervals, and North American
Waterfowl Management Plan population goal for selected species for the traditional
survey area .......................................................................................................................... 12
Figure 3. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size of the mallard population in the
fall......................................................................................................................................... 21
List of Goose and Swan Figures
Figure 1. Important goose nesting areas in arctic and subarctic North America ............................. 24
Figure 2. Snow and ice cover in North America for spring ............................................................... 25
Figure 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America............................... 26
Figures 4-18. Indices to Canada goose populations’ status ............................................................ 25-32
Figure 19. Approximate ranges of selected goose populations in North America............................ 33
Figures 20-26, 28. Indices to selected goose populations’ status ................................................... 34-39
Figure 27. Approximate range of Emperor goose, and tundra swan populations in
North America ....................................................................................................................... 37
Figure 29. Indices to tundra swan populations’ status...................................................................... 38
4
STATUS OF DUCKS
Abstract: In the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, and 75-77),
the total-duck population estimate was 32.2 ± 0.6 (± 1 standard error) million birds, 11% below last year’s
estimate of 36.2 ± 0.7 million birds (P<0.001), and 3% below the 1955-2003 long-term average (P=0.053).
Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) numbered 7.4 ± 0.3 million, similar to last year’s estimate of 7.9 ± 0.3
million birds (P=0.177) and to the long-term average (P=0.762). Blue-winged teal (A. discors) numbered
4.1 ± 0.2 million, 26% below last year’s estimate of 5.5 ± 0.3 million (P<0.001) and 10% below the long-term
average (P=0.073). Among other duck species, only northern shovelers (A. clypeata, 2.8 ± 0.2
million) and American wigeon (A. americana, 2.0 ± 0.1 million) differed significantly from (both 22%
below, P<0.003) their 2003 estimates. As in 2003, gadwall (A. strepera, 2.6 ± 0.2 million, +56%), green-winged
teal (A. crecca, 2.5 ± 0.1 million, +33%), and northern shovelers (+32%) were above their long-term
averages. Northern pintails (A. acuta, 2.2 ± 0.2 million, -48%), scaup (Aythya affinis and A. marila,
3.8 ± 0.2 million, -27%), and American wigeon (-25%) were well below their long-term averages in 2004
(P<0.001). Total May ponds (Prairie Canada, and the north-central U.S. combined) were estimated at 3.9
± 0.2 million, which is 24% lower than last year (P<0.001) and 19% below the long-term average
(P<0.001). Pond numbers in both Canada (2.5 ± 0.1 million) and the U. S. (1.4 ± 0.1 million) were below
2003 estimates (-29% in Canada, and -16% in the U.S.; P<0.033), and pond numbers in Canada were
25% below the long-term average for this region (P<0.001). The projected mallard fall flight index was 9.4
± 0.1 million birds, similar to the 2003 estimate of 10.3 ± 0.1 million (P=0.467). The eastern survey area is
comprised of strata 51-56 and 62-69. The 2004 total-duck population estimate for this area was 3.9 ± 0.3
million birds. This estimate was similar to last year’s estimate of 3.6 ± 0.3 million birds, and to the 1996-
2003 average (P>0.102). Individual species estimates for this area were similar to 2003 estimates and to
1996-2003 averages, with the exception of American wigeon (0.1 ± 0.1 million) and goldeneyes
(Bucephala clangula and B. islandica, 0.4 ± 0.1 million) which were 61% and 42% below their 1996-2003
averages (P<0.052), respectively, and ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris, 0.7 ± 0.2 million), which
increased 67% relative to their 2003 estimate (P=0.095).
This section summarizes the most recent
information about the status of North American duck
populations and their habitats in order to facilitate
development of harvest regulations in the U.S. The
annual status of these populations is monitored using
a variety of databases, which include estimates of the
size of breeding populations, production, and harvest.
This report discusses population survey results.
Harvest survey results are discussed in separate
reports. The data and analyses were the most
current available when this report was written. Future
analyses may yield slightly different results as
databases are updated and new analytical
procedures become available.
METHODS
Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
Federal, provincial, and state agencies conduct
surveys each spring to estimate the size of breeding
populations and to evaluate the condition of the
habitats. These surveys are conducted using fixed-wing
aircraft and cover over 2.0 million square miles
that encompass principal breeding areas of North
America. The traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-
50, and 75-77) comprises parts of Alaska, Canada,
and the north-central U.S., and includes
approximately 1.3 million square miles (Appendix C).
The eastern survey area (strata 51-56 and 62-69)
includes parts of Ontario, Quebec, Labrador,
Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island,
New Brunswick, New York, and Maine, covering an
area of approximately 0.7 million square miles.
In Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S.,
estimates are corrected annually for visibility bias
by conducting ground counts. In the northern
portions of the traditional survey area and the
eastern survey area, duck estimates are adjusted
using visibility correction factors derived from a
comparison of airplane and helicopter counts. For
the 2004 eastern survey area, these correction
factors were updated only in strata 68 and 69.
Annual estimates of duck abundance are available
since 1955 for the traditional survey area and for
all strata in the eastern survey area since 1996,
although portions of the eastern survey area have
been surveyed since 1990. In the traditional
survey area, estimates of pond abundance in
Prairie Canada are available since 1961 and in
the north-central U.S. since 1974. Several
provinces and states also conduct breeding
waterfowl surveys using various methods; some
have survey designs that allow calculation of
5
measures of precision for their estimates.
Information about habitat conditions was supplied
primarily by biologists working in the survey areas.
However, much ancillary weather information was
obtained from agricultural and weather internet
sites (see references).
Production and Habitat Survey
In July, aerial observers usually assess summer
habitat conditions and duck production in a portion of
the traditional survey area (strata 20-49 and 75-77).
This survey provides indices of duck brood and pond
numbers. Ground counts are not conducted
concurrently with July aerial surveys, so indices of
duck broods and ponds are not corrected for visibility
bias. The coefficients of variation for May pond
estimates are used to estimate the precision of July
pond counts.
This year, we had no traditional July Production
Survey to verify the early predictions of our biologists
in the field, due to severe budget constraints within
the migratory bird program. However, the pilot-biologists
responsible for several survey areas
(southern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, the
Dakotas, and Montana) returned in early July for a
brief flight over representative portions of their areas
as a rough assessment of habitat changes since May
and resultant duck production. This information,
along with reports from local biologists in the field,
helped us formulate our overall perspective on duck
production this year.
Total Duck Species Composition
In the traditional survey area, our estimate of total
ducks excludes scoters (Melanitta spp.), eiders
(Somateria and Polysticta spp.), long-tailed ducks
(Clangula hyemalis), mergansers (Mergus and
Lophodytes spp.), and wood ducks (Aix sponsa),
because the traditional survey area does not cover a
large portion of their breeding range. However,
scoters and mergansers breed throughout a large
portion of the eastern survey area. Therefore, the
total-duck species composition in the eastern survey
area includes these species. Canvasbacks (Aythya
valisineria), redheads (A. americana), and ruddy
ducks (Oxyura jamaicensis) are excluded from the
eastern total-duck estimate because these species
rarely breed there. Wood ducks are also not included
in the total-duck estimate for the eastern survey area,
even though this species breeds over much of the
region, as their wooded habitats make them difficult
to detect from the air.
Mallard Fall-flight Index
The mallard fall-flight index is a prediction of the
size of the fall population originating from the mid-continent
region of North America. For
management purposes, the mid-continent
population is composed of mallards originating
from the traditional survey area, as well as
Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The index is
based on the mallard models used for Adaptive
Harvest Management, and considers breeding
population size, habitat conditions, adult summer
survival, and projected fall age ratio (young/adult).
The projected fall age ratio is predicted from a
model that depicts how the age ratio varies with
changes in spring population size and pond
abundance. The fall-flight index represents a
weighted average of the fall flights predicted by
the four alternative models of mallard population
dynamics used in Adaptive Harvest Management
(U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2004).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
2003 in Review
Habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl
greatly improved over 2002 in most of the prairie
survey areas and those improved conditions were
reflected in the numbers of ponds counted in
2003. The May pond estimate (U.S. Prairies and
Prairie and Parkland Canada combined) of 5.2 ±
0.2 million was 91% higher than in 2002
(P<0.001), and 7% above the long-term average
(P=0.034). Pond numbers in Canada (3.5 ± 0.2
million) and the U.S. (1.7 ± 0.1 million) were
above 2002 estimates (+145% in Canada and
+30% in the U.S.; P<0.001). Canadian ponds
were similar to the 1961-2002 average (P=0.297),
while ponds in the U.S. were 10% above the
1974-2002 average (P=0.037).
Most prairie areas had warm temperatures and
abundant rain last spring. Two areas of dramatic
improvement over the previous several years
were south-central Alberta and southern
Saskatchewan, where conditions went from poor
to good after much needed precipitation alleviated
several years of drought. Other areas in the
prairies also improved over 2002, but to a lesser
extent. However, years of drought in parts of the
U.S. and Canadian prairies, combined with inten-sive
agricultural practices, reduced the quality and
quantity of residual nesting cover and over-water
nesting sites in many regions in 2003, and limited
production for both dabbling and diving ducks.
Eastern South Dakota was the one area of the
6
prairies where wetland habitat conditions were
generally worse than in 2002, mostly due to low
soil moisture, little winter precipitation and no
significant rain in April. This region received
several inches of rain in May, but by then most
birds had flown to other regions with more
favorable wetland conditions.
In the northern part of the traditional survey area,
habitat was in generally good condition and most
areas had normal water levels. The exception was
northern Manitoba, where low water levels in
small streams and beaver ponds resulted in
overall breeding habitat conditions that were only
fair. Warm spring temperatures arrived much
earlier last year, in contrast with the exceptionally
late spring of 2002. However, a cold snap in early
May likely hurt early-nesting species such as
mallards and northern pintails, particularly in the
northern Northwest Territories.
Habitat conditions in the eastern survey area
ranged from excellent to fair. In the southern and
western part of this survey area, water and
nesting cover were plentiful and temperatures
were mild in 2003. Habitat quality decreased to
the north, especially in northern and western
Quebec, where many shallow marshes and bogs
were either completely dry or reduced to mudflats.
Beaver pond habitat was also noticeably less
common than normal. To the east in Maine and
most of the Atlantic provinces, conditions were
excellent, with adequate water and vegetation,
and warm spring temperatures.
In the traditional survey area, the total-duck
population estimate (excluding scoters, eiders,
long-tailed ducks, mergansers, and wood ducks)
was 36.2 ± 0.7 million birds, 16% above (P<0.001)
the 2002 estimate of 31.2 ± 0.5 million birds, and
9% above the 1955-2002 long-term average
(P<0.001). In the eastern Dakotas, total duck
numbers decreased by 21% relative to the
previous year, but remained 25% above the long-term
average (P<0.001). Counts in southern
Alberta were unchanged from the previous year,
and remained 38% below the long-term average
(P<0.001). Total-duck estimates increased
compared to 2002 in southern Manitoba, Montana
and the western Dakotas, southern
Saskatchewan, and Alaska (P<0.012) and were
above long-term averages in the latter two regions
(P<0.001). Counts in central and northern
Alberta, northeast British Columbia and the
Northwest Territories were similar to those of
2002, but 11% below the long-term average
(P=0.017). Counts in northern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba and western Ontario were down 21%
from 2002 estimates (P=0.003), but unchanged
from the long-term average (P=0.959). The 2003
total-duck population estimate for the eastern
survey area was 3.6 ± 0.3 million birds. That was
17% lower than the 2002 estimate (4.4 ± 0.3
million birds, P=0.065), and similar to the 1996-
2002 average (P=0.266). In some other areas
where surveys are conducted, measures of precision
for estimates are provided (British Columbia,
California, northeastern U.S., and Wisconsin). Total
duck abundance was similar to the 2002 estimates
and long-term averages in British Columbia and the
northeastern U.S. (P>0.171). In California, the total
duck estimate was up 36% relative to 2002
(P=0.030), and was similar to the long-term average
(P=0.177). Of the states without measures of
precision for total duck numbers, Nevada's estimate
increased relative to 2002, but estimates for
Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Washington all
decreased compared to the previous year.
The number of broods in Prairie Canada and
the north-central U.S. were 142% and 18% higher
than 2002 estimates, respectively. Brood indices
in Prairie Canada were 24% below the long-term
average, while brood counts were 31% above the
long-term average in the north-central U.S. The
brood index in the Canadian boreal forest was
72% lower than that of 2002, and 76% below the
long-term average. The late-nesting index was
down 43% and 30% relative to 2002 in boreal
Canada and Prairie Canada, respectively, but up
67% in the north-central U.S. Late nesting indices
were below long-term averages by 74% in boreal
Canada, by 43% in the north-central U.S., and by
46% in Prairie Canada.
2004 Breeding Habitat Conditions, Popula-tions,
and Production
Overall Habitat and Population Status
Most of the U.S. and Canadian prairies were
much drier in May 2004 than in May 2003, which
was reflected in the pond counts for this region.
For the U.S. Prairies and Canadian Prairie and
Parkland combined, the May pond estimate (Table
1, Figure 1) was 3.9 ± 0.2 million, which is 24%
lower than last year’s (P<0.001) and 19% below
the long-term average (P<0.001). Pond numbers
in both Canada (2.5 ± 0.1 million) and the U. S.
(1.4 ± 0.1 million) were below 2003 estimates
(-29% in Canada and -16% in the U.S.; P<0.033).
The number of ponds in Canada was 25% below
the long-term average (P<0.001).
Unfortunately, last year’s good water conditions
on the short-grass prairies of southern Alberta and
Saskatchewan did not continue in 2004, and
7
Table 1. Estimated number (in thousands) of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Change from 2003 Change from LTA
Survey Area 2003 2004 % P LTAa % P
Prairie Canada
S. Alberta 888 511 -43 <0.001 726 -30 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 2143 1461 -32 <0.001 1964 -26 <0.001
S. Manitoba 491 541 +10 0.280 674 -20 <0.001
Subtotal 3522 2513 -29 <0.001 3365 -25 <0.001
Northcentral U.S.
Montana and western Dakotas 480 597 +25 0.018 521 +15 0.071
Eastern Dakotas 1188 810 -32 0.001 1006 -20 0.037
Subtotal 1668 1407 -16 0.033 1528 -8 0.243
Grand Total 5190 3920 -24 <0.001 4842 -19 <0.001
aLong-term average. Prairie Canada, 1961-2003; northcentral U.S. and Grand Total, 1974-2003.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Millions
Northcentral U.S.
Prairie Canada
Total
Year
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals in Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
8
habitat in these areas went from good last year to
fair or poor this year. Habitat in southern Manitoba
ranged from poor in the east to good in the west,
conditions similar to last year’s. In the Dakotas, a
slow drying trend seen over the past few years
continued, and much of eastern South Dakota
was in poor condition. Conditions in the Dakotas
improved to the north, and eastern Montana was a
mosaic of poor to good conditions, with overall
production potential rated only fair. Although
prairie areas received considerable moisture from
snow, including a late-spring snowstorm in
southern regions, the snowmelt was absorbed by
the parched ground. Furthermore, snow and cold
during May probably adversely affected early
nesters and young broods. Many prairie areas
received abundant water after May surveys, but it
likely did not alleviate dry conditions, because this
precipitation also soaked into the ground.
Therefore, overall expected production from the
prairies was only poor to fair this year.
Spring thaw was exceptionally late this year in
the Northwest Territories, northern Alberta,
northern Saskatchewan, and northern Manitoba.
This meant that birds that over-flew the prairies
due to poor conditions encountered winter-like
conditions in the bush, and nesting may have
been curtailed. This is especially true for early-nesting
species like mallards and northern pintails;
late nesters should have better success. Overall,
the bush regions were only fair to marginally good
for production due to this late thaw. However,
Alaska birds should produce well due to excellent
habitat conditions there. Areas south of the
Brooks Range experienced a widespread, record-setting
early spring breakup, and flooding of
nesting areas was minimal.
Breeding habitat conditions were generally
good to excellent in the eastern U.S. and Canada.
Although spring was late in most areas, it was
thought nesting was not significantly affected
because of abundant spring rain and mild
temperatures. Production in the east was normal
in Ontario and the Maritimes, and slightly below
normal in Quebec.
In the traditional survey area, the total duck
population estimate (excluding scoters, eiders,
long-tailed ducks, mergansers, and wood ducks)
was 32.2 ± 0.6 million birds, 11% below (P<0.001)
last year’s estimate of 36.2 ± 0.7 million birds, and
3% below the long-term (1955-2003) average
(P=0.053; Table 2, Table 4, Appendix G). In the
eastern Dakotas, total duck numbers were similar
to last year’s estimate (P<0.590), and remained
29% above the long-term average (P<0.001).
Counts in southern Alberta were also similar to
last year’s (P<0.309), and remained 42% below
the long-term average (P<0.001). The total-duck
estimate decreased 38% relative to last year in
southern Saskatchewan (P<0.001) and was 22%
below the long-term average (P<0.001). Counts in
central and northern Alberta, northeast British
Columbia and the Northwest Territories were
similar to last year's (P=0.160) but below the long-term
average (P<0.001, Table 2). Counts in the
northern Saskatchewan--northern Manitoba--
western Ontario area, and the Alaska--Yukon
Territory--Old Crow Flats region were both similar
to 2003 estimates (P>0.106), but above their long-term
averages (P<0.033). Total duck counts in the
southern Manitoba region and the western
Dakotas--eastern Montana region were similar to
2003 estimates and to long-term averages
(P>0.354). The 2004 total duck population
estimate for the eastern survey area was 3.9 ± 0.3
million birds (Table 5). This estimate is similar to
last year's (3.6 ± 0.3 million birds), and to the
1996-2003 average (P>0.102).
In British Columbia, California, northeastern U.S.,
Oregon, and Wisconsin., measures of precision for
survey estimates are provided. Total duck
abundance decreased by 23% in California
(P=0.079) relative to 2003, and was similar to 2003 in
British Columbia, Wisconsin, Oregon, and the
northeastern U.S. (P>0.165). The total duck estimate
was down 31% in California (P<0.001) and 16% in
Oregon (P=0.042) relative to the long-term average.
In Wisconsin, total ducks were 58% above their long-term
average (P=0.001). In British Columbia and the
northeastern U.S., total duck estimates were similar
to their long-term averages. Of the states without
measures of precision for total duck numbers,
estimates of total ducks increased in Nevada,
Minnesota, and Michigan relative to 2003, but
estimates decreased in Nebraska and Washington
compared to last year.
Trends and annual breeding population
estimates for 10 principal duck species from the
traditional survey area are provided in Figure 2,
Table 4, and Appendix F. Mallard abundance was
7.4 ± 0.3 million, which is statistically similar to last
year’s estimate of 7.9 ± 0.3 million (P=0.177), and
to the long-term average (P=0.762, Tables 3 and
4). Mallard numbers dropped significantly in
southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba
compared to 2003 (P<0.032). Mallards were 23%
below their long-term average in southern
Saskatchewan (P<0.001), but unchanged from the
long-term average in southern Manitoba. In the
eastern Dakotas and Alaska--Yukon Territory--Old
Crow Flats regions, mallard estimates were similar
to those of 2003 (P>0.726), and remained well
9
Table 2. Total ducka breeding population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2003 Change from LTA
Region 2003 2004 % P LTAb % P
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats 5705 5456 -4 0.361 3480 +57 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories 6461 5882 -9 0.160 7229 -19 <0.001
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario 3564 4085 +15 0.106 3554 +15 0.033
S. Alberta 2696 2499 -7 0.309 4342 -42 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 9296 5783 -38 <0.001 7367 -22 <0.001
S. Manitoba 1582 1474 -7 0.354 1544 -5 0.393
Montana and Western Dakotas 1731 1615 -7 0.413 1620 0 0.955
Eastern Dakotas 5190 5370 +3 0.590 4169 +29 <0.001
Total 36225 32164 -11 <0.001 33304 -3 0.053
Eastern Survey Area 3635 3905 +7 0.534 3343 +17 0.102
Other Regions
British Columbia c 8 6 -24 0.366 8 -18 0.277
California 534 413 -23 0.079 598 -31 <0.001
Northeastern U.S. d 1304 1418 +9 0.313 1400 +1 0.854
Oregon 298 301 +1 0.929 356 -16 0.042
Wisconsin 533 651 +22 0.165 412 +58 0.001
a Excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, scoter, and merganser in traditional survey area; excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, redhead, canvasback and ruddy
duck in eastern survey area; species composition for other regions varies.
b Long-term average. Traditional survey area=1955-2003; eastern survey area=1996-2003; years for other regions vary (see Appendix E).
c Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing regions of the province.
d Includes all or portions of CT, DE, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, and VA.
e Not estimable from current survey.
10
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2003 Change from LTA
Region 2003 2004 % P LTAb % P
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats 843 811 -4 0.726 341 +138 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories 852 776 -9 0.502 1103 -30 <0.001
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario 1103 1283 +16 0.417 1161 +11 0.482
S. Alberta 627 600 -4 0.766 1118 -46 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 2111 1609 -24 0.011 2088 -23 <0.001
S. Manitoba 505 393 -22 0.032 376 +5 0.509
Montana and Western Dakotas 506 495 -2 0.891 502 -1 0.911
Eastern Dakotas 1402 1456 +4 0.727 823 +77 <0.001
Total 7950 7425 -7 0.177 7512 -1 0.762
Eastern Survey Area 383 368 -4 0.853 312 +18 0.358
Other Regions
British Columbia b 1 1 +6 0.743 1 -27 0.015
California 337 262 -22 0.216 376 -30 0.003
Michigan 294 329 +12 0.614 436 -25 0.054
Minnesota 281 375 +34 0.158 289 +72 d
Northeastern U.S. c 732 809 +11 0.988 762 +6 0.993
Oregon 110 103 -6 0.563 130 -21 0.002
Wisconsin 261 229 -12 0.443 173 +32 0.050
a Long-term average. Traditional survey area=1955-2003; eastern survey area=1996-20013 years for other regions vary (see Appendix E).
b Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing regions of the province.
c Includes all or portions of CT, DE, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, and VA.
d Value for test statistic was not available.
11
Figure 2. Breeding population estimates, 95% confidence intervals, and North American Waterfowl Management
Plan population goal (dashed line) for selected species in the traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, 75-77).
Mallard
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
American wigeon
0
1
2
3
4
5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Gadwall
0
1
2
3
4
5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Blue-winged teal
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions Green-winged teal
0
1
2
3
4
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Total ducks
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
12
Figure 2 continued.
Northern pintail
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Canvasback
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Redhead
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Scaup
0
2
4
6
8
10
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Northern shoveler
0
1
2
3
4
5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
American black duck
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Mississippi Flyway
Atlantic Flyway
Total
13
above long-term averages (P<0.001). Mallard
estimates for the central and northern Alberta--
northeastern British Columbia--Northwest
Territories and the southern Alberta survey areas
were also unchanged from 2003 estimates
(P>0.502) but remained below long-term averages
(P<0.001). In the Montana--western Dakotas and
the northern Saskatchewan--northern Manitoba--
western Ontario survey areas mallard numbers
did not change relative to last year’s estimates
and were similar to their long term averages
(P>0.502). In other areas where surveys are
conducted and measures of precision for estimates
are provided (the same states as for total ducks, as
well as Michigan and Minnesota), mallard abundance
remained unchanged from 2003. Mallard estimates
were below the long-term average in Michigan
(P=0.054), British Columbia (P=0.015), California
(P=0.003), and Oregon (P=0.002), above it in
Wisconsin (P=0.050), and similar to it in the
northeastern U.S. (P=0.993). In Nebraska, Nevada
and Washington, estimates of precision are
unavailable, but mallard counts were down relative to
last year's in Nebraska, increased in and
Washington, and were unchanged in Nevada.
Blue-winged teal abundance was estimated at
4.1 ± 0.2 million birds, 26% below (P<0.001) last
year’s estimate of 5.5 ± 0.3 million, and 10%
(P=0.073) below the 1955-2003 average.
Evidence for overflight of the prairies by blue-winged
teal was suggested by declines in
population estimates relative to 2003 in all prairie
survey areas except southern Alberta and
Montana--western Dakotas, where numbers were
similar to 2003 (P>0.384). Of the other duck
species, only northern shovelers (2.8 ± 0.2 million)
and American wigeon (2.0 ± 0.1 million) were
different from (both 22% below, P<0.003) their
2003 estimates. As in 2003, gadwall (2.6 ± 0.2
million, +56%), green-winged teal (2.5 ± 0.1
million, +33%), and northern shovelers (+32%)
were above their long-term averages (P<0.001).
Northern pintails (2.2 ± 0.2 million, -48%) and
scaup (3.8 ± 0.2 million, -27%) remained well
below their long-term averages (P<0.001), in both
total counts and in most individual survey regions.
American wigeon were also below their overall
long-term average in 2004 (-25%, P<0.001), and
declined in all survey areas (P<0.001) except for
Alaska, where they increased by 81% from 2003
(P<0.001), and the eastern Dakotas, where they
were unchanged from 2003 (P=0.500).
Populations of most species in the eastern
survey area were similar to last year’s and 1996-
2003 estimates. The ring-necked duck estimate
increased 67% relative to 2003, to 0.7 ± 0.2
million birds (P=0.095). American wigeon (0.1 ±
0.1 million, -61%) and goldeneye (0.4 ± 0.1
million, -42%) were below their 1996-2003
averages (P<0.052). All other species were similar
to 2003 estimates and 1996-2003 averages.
The status of the American black duck (Anas
rubripes) has been monitored primarily by midwinter
surveys conducted in January in states of the Atlantic
and Mississippi Flyways. The trend in the winter
index for the total population is depicted in Figure 2.
Midwinter counts of American black ducks declined
relative to 2003 counts in both flyways. In both
flyways combined, a total of 226,700 American black
ducks were counted in midwinter inventories. This
was 9% lower than the 2003 index (248,900), and
20% lower than the 10-year mean (279,800). In the
Atlantic Flyway, the midwinter index of 206,400 was
down 8% from 224,600 in 2003, and was 9% below
the most recent 10-year mean (225,900). In the
Mississippi Flyway, the American black duck mid-winter
index decreased 17% from 24,300 in 2003 to
20,300, which is 62% below the 10-year mean
(53,900). In the eastern survey area, the 2004
estimate for breeding American black ducks
(730,000) was up 37% compared to last year but was
statistically similar to the 2003 estimate (533,000)
and the 1996-2003 average (498,000).
Trends in wood duck populations are monitored by
the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), a
series of roadside routes surveyed during May and
June each year. Wood ducks are encountered with
low frequency along BBS routes, limiting the amount
and quality of available information for analysis
(Sauer and Droege 1990). However, the BBS
provides the only long-term indices of this species'
regional populations. Trend analysis suggests that
wood duck numbers increased 4.3% per year over
the long-term (1966-2003, P<0.001)) and 3.7% over
the short-term (1980-2003, P=0.019). Specifically, in
the Atlantic Flyway, the BBS indicates a 4.9% annual
increase in wood ducks over the long-term (P<0.001)
and a 4.2% annual increase over the short-term
(P<0.001). In the Mississippi Flyway, the BBS
indicates a 3.9% annual increase over the long-term
(P<0.001), and a 3.5% annual increase over the
short-term (P=0.009, J. Sauer, U. S. Geological
Survey/Biological Resources Division, unpublished
data).
Weather and habitat conditions during the
summer months can influence waterfowl
production. Good wetland conditions increase
renesting effort and brood survival. In general,
2004 habitat conditions stabilized or improved
over most of the traditional survey area between
May and July. While there were no formal July
surveys flown this year, experienced crew leaders
14
Table 4. Duck breeding population estimates (in thousands) for the 10 most abundant species in the traditional
survey area.
Change from 2003 Change from LTA
Species 2003 2004 % P LTA a % P
Mallard 7950 7425 -7 0.177 7512 -1 0.762
Gadwall 2549 2590 +2 0.864 1664 +56 <0.001
American wigeon 2551 1981 -22 0.003 2637 -25 <0.001
Green-winged teal 2678 2461 -8 0.378 1849 +33 <0.001
Blue-winged teal 5518 4073 -26 <0.001 4508 -10 0.073
Northern shoveler 3620 2810 -22 0.003 2135 +32 <0.001
Northern pintail 2558 2185 -15 0.110 4182 -48 <0.001
Redhead 637 605 -5 0.681 625 -3 0.705
Canvasback 558 617 +11 0.458 562 +10 0.396
Scaup (greater and lesser combined) 3734 3807 +2 0.810 5249 -27 <0.001
Total b 36225 32164 -11 <0.001 33304 -3 0.053
a Long-term average (1955-2003).
b Includes species in table plus black duck, ring-necked duck, goldeneneyes, bufflehead, and ruddy duck. Excludes scoter, eider, long-tailed duck, merganser, and wood duck.
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates (in thousands) for the 10 most abundant species for the eastern survey
area.
Change from 2003
Change from
Average
Species 2003 2004 % P Average
a % P
Mergansers (common, red-breasted,
& hooded) 569 668 +17 0.439 537 +24 0.264
Mallard 383 368 -4 0.853 312 +18 0.358
American black duck 533 730 +37 0.234 498 +47 0.137
American wigeon 79 27 -66 0.133 68 -61 0.004
Green-winged teal 452 554 +22 0.558 356 +56 0.123
Lesser scaup 101 81 -20 0.629 81 0 0.996
Ring-necked duck 399 668 +67 0.095 479 +39 0.225
Goldeneye (common & Barrow’s) 768 430 -44 0.191 746 -42 0.052
Bufflehead 66 44 -34 0.260 60 -27 0.183
Scoters (surf, black, & white-winged) 237 261 +10 0.822 154 +70 0.200
Total b 3635 3905 +7 0.534 3343 +17 0.102
a Average from 1996-2003.
b Includes species in table plus gadwall, northern shoveler, northern pintail, eiders, and blue-winged teal. Excludes long-tailed duck, wood duck, redhead, canvasback, and
ruddy duck.
15
in Montana and the western Dakotas, the eastern
Dakotas, southern Alberta, and southern
Saskatchewan returned to their May survey areas
in early July to qualitatively assess habitat
changes between May and July. Biologists from
other survey areas communicated with local
biologists to get their impressions of 2004
waterfowl production and monitored weather
conditions. Habitat in some portions of the
prairies, particularly in the Dakotas and Alberta,
improved between May and July because of
abundant summer rain. However, there were few
birds in these areas because many had left the
prairies in the early spring when habitat conditions
were dry. Therefore, the production potential from
most prairie areas ranged from poor to good and
was generally worse than in 2003. Habitat
conditions in the northern and eastern areas are
more stable because of the deeper, more
permanent water bodies there. Because
temperatures were so cold in May, the outlook for
production from these areas remains fair in the
northern Prairie Provinces, and good to excellent
in the eastern survey area.
Regional Habitat and Population Status
A description of habitat conditions, populations,
and production for each for the major breeding areas
follows. More detailed reports of specific regions are
available in Waterfowl Population Surveys reports,
located on the Division of Migratory Bird
Management’s home page. Some of the habitat
information that follows was taken from these reports
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html).
Southern Alberta: The entire survey area
recorded below-normal winter precipitation, with
the exception of the Peace River and Cold River
regions. In the spring, precipitation in southern
Alberta was generally much below normal, except
for Red Deer, which had fair conditions for nesting
waterfowl. The prairie and aspen parklands (strata
26-29, 75) were in generally poor condition, with a
few areas along the Milk River Ridge in fair
condition. Stratum 76 ranged from poor to fair.
The usually good habitat within a 50-mile radius of
Edmonton was rated only fair this year. Overall,
large groups of ducks tended to congregate on
what little water was available. May ponds were
down 43% relative to 2003 (P<0.001), and were
30% below the long-term average (P<0.001).
Neither total ducks nor any of the individual
species surveyed differed from 2003 estimates,
but total ducks (-42%), mallards (-46%), American
wigeon (-62%), green-winged teal (–50%), blue-winged
teal (-41%), northern pintail (-78%), and
scaup (-66%) all remained well below long-term
averages (P<0.001). Estimates of total ducks, as
well as mallards, American wigeon, green-winged
teal, blue-winged teal, and northern pintails were
all at very low levels, ranking in the bottom 10% of
estimates since 1955. Redheads were also below
their long-tem average (-33%, P=0.065) Gadwall,
Northern shoveler, and canvasback numbers were
similar to long-term averages.
Habitat conditions improved slightly for
production since May in western and central
portions of the Alberta Prairies (strata 28-29) and
the Aspen Parklands (strata 26-27). Most areas
of southern Alberta received 85-115% of normal
precipitation since May 2004, but continued
above-normal precipitation is needed to restore
water storage in wetlands to normal levels.
Eastern portions of strata 26-29 remained in the
poor category for production potential, and
western areas were rated fair, with a few good
areas. Palmer drought indices suggest that
stratum 75 was largely in fair condition, and
stratum 76 was in poor condition as of July.
Southern Saskatchewan: Waterfowl breeding
habitat conditions across southern Saskatchewan
were generally much poorer than they were last
season. Despite normal or above-normal
precipitation over much of the survey area (Strata
30-35), above normal fall and winter temperatures
resulted in a poor frost seal, and most of this
moisture was absorbed into the ground. Very little
water remained on the surface for use by
migrating waterfowl. The long-term drought in this
region has taken a toll on the grasslands, and
much upland nesting cover was in poor condition
during the survey. The only bright spot was an
area of south-central Saskatchewan in the
grasslands (strata 32-33), especially important to
northern pintails, that had good water.
The May pond estimate was down 32% from
last year's count (P<0.001), and was 26% below
the long-term average (P<0.001). Except for
scaup, which were unchanged from their 2003
estimate, all other species in the region were
down relative to their 2003 estimates. American
wigeon were at their lowest levels since 1955.
Population estimates of many duck species were
below long-term averages (LTAs) as well. Total
ducks (-38% from 2003, -22% from LTA), mallards
(-24% from 2003, -23% LTA), American wigeon (-
41%, -70% from LTA), green-winged teal (-54%
16
from 2003, -46% from LTA), redheads (-52% from
2003, -31% from LTA), canvasbacks (-38% from
2003, -34% from LTA), and northern pintails (-
52% from 2003, -62% from LTA) were lower than
2003 estimates (P<0.022) and long-term averages
(P<0.026). Gadwall were 30% below their 2003
numbers (P=0.071), but remained 37% above
their long-term average (P=0.094). Blue-winged
teal and northern shovelers were 40% and 45%
below last year’s estimates, respectively
(P>0.022), but similar to their long-term averages
(P>0.166). Scaup were 56% below their long-term
average (P<0.001), but unchanged from their
2003 estimate (P=0.240).
The northeast Parklands region (stratum 31)
improved since the May survey. Upland habitat
was in good condition and most of this area had
good-excellent wetland conditions, which boded
well for re-nesting, late nesting and brood rearing
by waterfowl. The northwest portion of the
Parklands also improved, but has suffered an
extended drought, and will require much additional
precipitation to restore upland cover and wetland
habitat to normal. Upland cover was rated fair-good,
and water levels were good in existing
wetlands. Overall, recruitment potential was poor
in the southern portion of stratum 31, and fair in
the north. Grassland regions (strata 32-33) were
the most improved, but July conditions were
variable. West-central portions remained dry, but
in the few portions that had received moisture,
conditions were good in this very important
waterfowl nesting area. The south-central
grasslands between Regina and Moose Jaw were
very wet, with widespread flooding. While overall
conditions have improved, biologists were
reluctant to upgrade production predictions for the
survey area. Many ducks had left the area by mid-
May, and the cool, wet weather could reduce the
survival of broods that were produced. The area
was still rated fair to good for recruitment as of
July.
Southern Manitoba: A late spring snowstorm in the
central portion of the southern Manitoba survey area
(strata 36-40) caused early-nesting species to
abandon nests, but improved wetland conditions
from fair to good. Additional rain produced many
temporary wetlands as well as flooding, but
biologists thought that few additional birds moved
into the area as a result. The parkland habitat of
west-central Manitoba was rated good, with good
numbers of dabbling and diving ducks present.
Overall, conditions for renesting birds and late-nesting
species were good. May pond counts were
unchanged from the 2003 estimate (P=0.280) but
remained 20% below the long-term average
(P<0.001). Total ducks, northern shovelers,
redheads, and canvasbacks were similar to their
2003 estimates and long-term averages (P>0.129).
Mallards were 22% below their 2003 estimate
(P=0.032), but similar to their long-term average
(P=0.509). Northern pintail and scaup estimates
were similar to those of 2003 (P>0.176), but
remained 65% and 77% below long-term averages,
respectively (P<0.001). The gadwall estimate was
the highest since 1955 and was 57% higher than last
year’s (P=0.075), and 131% above the long-term
average (P=0.002). American wigeon were at their
lowest level since 1955 and was -78% below 2003
and 95% below the long term average (P<0.023).
Green-winged teal (-44%, -48% LTA), and blue-winged
teal (-33%, -27% LTA) were also below
2003 estimates (P<0.032) and long-term averages
(P<0.001).
In late May, the survey area received much
precipitation. Thus, although June precipitation
was 50% of average, and July precipitation was
average, as of July, water conditions in the
southern portions of the province, along the U.S.
border and near Whitewater Lake, were excellent,
and the pothole country near Minnedosa was
rated good-very good. Despite the apparently
good production conditions, few broods were seen
early on. Temperatures in late May and early June
were well below average, and coupled with May
precipitation, the cold may have reduced brood
survival of early nesting species such as mallards
and pintails. Observers did report more brood
sightings in July, and the good water conditions
improved the quality of upland cover.
Montana and Western Dakotas: In Montana (strata
41-42) and the western Dakotas (strata 43-44),
waterfowl production potential was rated fair, and
expected to be below average. In western South
Dakota, water conditions had deteriorated relative
to 2003 and many streams and wetlands were
dry. By contrast, there was abundant residual
nesting cover that likely benefited early-nesting
species such as mallards and northern pintails.
Water conditions in western North Dakota were
better, but apparent reductions of land enrolled in
the Conservation Reserve Program between
Bismarck and Dickinson meant that good upland
nesting cover was scarce there. In eastern
Montana, wetland conditions north of the Missouri
River were much better than to the south, and
habitat conditions were rated fair to marginally
good. The region south of the Missouri River was
17
plagued by continued drought, and projected
production was rated poor. Overall, May pond
counts in the entire survey area were up 25%
relative to 2003 (P=0.018), and slightly (15%)
higher than the long-term average (P=0.071). This
surprising rise in pond counts was due in part to
drought-induced segmentation of semi-dry rivers.
Total ducks and all individual species were similar
to their 2003 estimates (P>0.101). American
wigeon (-41%), northern pintails (-52%), and
scaup (-50%) all remained well below their long-term
averages (P<0.009). Green-winged teal were
at their highest recorded levels since 1955, and
were 177% above their long-term average for the
survey area (P<0.001).
Overall, habitat conditions in the area stabilized
or improved following May surveys. Brood rearing
conditions were good, and production should be
average along the Canadian border in eastern
Montana (stratum 41). In western South Dakota
(stratum 44) conditions were marginally good to
the northwest, but only fair to the southeast, with
mid-late nesters benefiting most from improved
habitat. In most portions of western North Dakota,
conditions were fair, with reduced pond numbers
and water levels. The extreme northwestern tip of
North Dakota was good for production, but overall
brood production in stratum 43 will be below
average. In eastern Montana south of the Missouri
River (stratum 42), late rains produced lush green
grass, which should produce good residual
nesting cover for 2005, but will benefit only the
latest nesters in 2004. Production will likely be
below normal in stratum 42. Overall production
potential for the survey area was below average
as of July.
Eastern Dakotas: As a result of a dry and relatively
mild winter, much of the breeding waterfowl
habitat in eastern South Dakota (Strata 48 and 49)
was considered poor. Temporary and seasonal
wetlands were absent, and many had been tilled.
Many artificial wetlands and small streams were
dry as well. Wetland conditions in the Prairie
Coteau were slightly better, and this area was
classified as fair. In North Dakota (strata 45-47),
wetland conditions were generally better. In much
of northern North Dakota good breeding habitat,
including seasonal and some temporary ponds,
was present, and nesting cover was adequate or
good. The remainder of eastern North Dakota was
rated fair. Both states received considerable rain
in mid-late May, but this likely arrived too late to
benefit early nesters, especially in South Dakota.
Later-nesting species and re-nesting females may
have benefited from this late precipitation,
especially in North Dakota. May ponds were 32%
below last year's figure (P=0.001), and 20% below
the long-term average (P=0.037). Estimates of
total ducks, mallards, gadwall, and scaup were
similar to those of 2003, but remained 29%, 77%,
117%, and 169% above long-term averages
respectively (P>0.002). Blue-winged teal counts
were down 23% relative to 2003 (P=0.062), but
were similar to the long-term mean (P=0.984).
Northern pintail numbers were 92% higher than in
2003 (P=0.020), but were 47% below their long-term
average (P<0.001). The green-winged teal
estimate was 159% higher than in 2003
(P=0.019), and 76% higher than the long-term
average (P=0.059). Canvasbacks were 93%
above their 2003 estimate (P=0.059), but similar
to their long-term average (P=0.230). American
wigeon, northern shovelers, and redheads were
similar to their 2003 estimates and their long-term
averages (P>0.133).
Weather throughout the crew area from May to
July was generally cooler and wetter than normal.
This pattern improved water levels and in some
areas, created “new” wetlands. The cool moist
weather helped the development of upland cover,
which was rated good or excellent as of July.
Over-water vegetation was also very good,
provided wetland basins were not recessed.
Habitat in southern South Dakota largely improved
from poor to marginally fair for production.
Wetlands in extreme southeast South Dakota, the
Leola Hills, the Prairie Coteau, and the northern
third of the drift plain maintained their fair status
and in some cases were marginally good for
production, an improvement over what had been
shaping up to be a near failure for production in
the state. North Dakota also benefited from the
cool, wet weather, but wetland conditions were
better there to begin with. Wetland conditions as
of July were good or very good in most of the
state, yet waterfowl occupancy appeared low,
especially on the drift plain. Response by late-nesting
and re-nesting birds to the late water will
likely be most pronounced in stratum 45, but
brood-rearing conditions are generally good
throughout North Dakota as of July. Moisture
gains, if maintained through the fall and winter,
portend good production conditions in this survey
area in 2005.
Northern Saskatchewan, Northern Manitoba, and
Western Ontario: In northern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba (strata 21-25), habitat conditions for
breeding waterfowl were fair to good. Most of
18
northern Manitoba was rated fair, and the western
edge of Manitoba and most of northern
Saskatchewan was in good condition. Conditions in
western Ontario (stratum 50) were rated good. In
the extreme southwestern portion of the study
area, near Big River, Saskatchewan, the timing of
the spring thaw was near normal, but was very
late in the remainder of northern Manitoba and
northern Saskatchewan. Nesting conditions in
northern Manitoba were also sub-optimal due to
low water levels in many streams and beaver
ponds. In western Ontario, spring was late, but
water levels were high, with abundant rainfall in
late May. Here, nesting was not expected to be
significantly affected by late phenology. The late
spring may actually have improved brood survival,
as most females were still incubating eggs during
the period of heavy rain, rather than tending newly
hatched broods, which are particularly vulnerable
to cold, wet weather.
Overall, the total-duck and green-winged teal
estimates for the region were similar to those of
2003 (P>0.160), but were 15% (P=0.033) and
96% (P<0.001) above their long-term averages.
American wigeon and northern pintails were also
similar to their 2003 estimates (P>0.236), but were
42% and 76% below their long-term averages,
respectively (P<0.001). Blue-winged teal were
67% below their 2003 estimate, and 78% below
their long-term average (P<0.006). Canvasbacks,
scaup, and northern shovelers were 277%, 64%,
and 226% above their 2003 estimates,
respectively (P<0.011), but similar to their long-term
averages (P>0.219). Mallard, gadwall and
redhead estimates were similar to those of 2003
and their long-term averages (P>0.417). As of
July, northern Saskatchewan was rated average
for production and northern Manitoba was rated
below average. June temperatures in western
Ontario were cooler than normal, and precipitation
above average, and normal production was
expected.
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and
Northwest Territories: In northern Alberta,
northeastern British Columbia, and the Northwest
Territories (strata 13-18, 20, 75-77), spring was late,
especially in the eastern area of the unit. Biologists
reported that large numbers of ducks apparently
over-flew the dry prairies. Most birds were
concentrated on the open wetlands on the west side
of the survey area, and had fewer opportunities to
nest on the east side, especially the early-nesting
species. The spring thaw came too late to benefit
most early-nesting species, but was right on
schedule for the later-nesting species. Breeding
conditions should also be excellent for scoters. Total-duck,
mallard, northern pintail, and scaup numbers
were similar to 2003 counts (P>0.160), but remained
19%, 30%, 50%, and 39% below their long-term
averages, respectively (P<0.001). Blue-winged teal
did not differ from their 2003 counts (P=0.389), but
remained 49% above their long-term average
(P=0.087). Gadwall (+82% above 2003, +211%
above LTA) and redhead (+150% above 2003, +97%
above LTA) numbers were higher than last year's
estimates and their long-term averages (P>0.066).
Green-winged teal, northern shoveler, and
canvasback estimates were similar to those of 2003
and to long-term averages (P>0.141).
Although much of northern Alberta and
northeastern British Columbia experienced a very
late spring, temperatures have been normal since
mid-June, though precipitation was 50% below
normal. As of July, production potential was rated
fair to good throughout stratum 20 and in stratum
77 west of the Birch and Caribou Mountains. In
the northeastern portion of stratum 77 that
experienced a record late spring, production
should be poor to fair.
Alaska, Yukon Territory, and Old Crow Flats: In
Alaska, the Yukon Territory, and Old Crow Flats
(strata 1-12), breeding conditions depend largely
on the timing of spring phenology, because
wetland conditions are less variable than on the
prairies. In general, this region experienced an
early spring breakup, with the exception of the
North Slope. Areas south of the Brooks Range
experienced a widespread, record-setting early
spring breakup. Snow and ice melt, and greening
of vegetation occurred rapidly, with only minor
flooding. Conditions on the Old Crow Flats in the
Yukon appeared more normal. Estimates of all
duck species were similar to those of 2003, with
the exception of green-winged teal, which were
21% below their 2003 count (P=0.068), but 140%
above their long-term average (P<0.001). Total
duck (+57%), mallard (+138%), American wigeon
(+81%), and northern shoveler estimates (+156%)
were all higher than their long-term averages
(P<0.001). Gadwall, blue-winged teal, northern
pintail, redhead, canvasback, and scaup
populations all remained similar to their long-term
averages (P>0.121).
Warm temperatures and moisture across much
of Alaska during June and July and minimal
flooding largely maintained the excellent
conditions observed by biologists in May. Overall,
excellent production is anticipated for most of
19
Alaska, with good conditions prevailing on the Old
Crow Flats. The interior boreal forest experienced
warm temperatures with little moisture, and
experienced the third-worst wildfire season on
record. This may have negatively affected
waterfowl production.
Eastern Survey Area: Breeding habitat conditions
were generally good to excellent in the eastern
U.S. and Canada (strata 51-56 and 62-69). Timing
of the spring thaw was normal in Maine and
conditions were excellent there and in the Maritime
Provinces and Newfoundland, but late in Labrador,
where nesting was delayed for birds at higher
elevations and production potential was rated good.
Production may be somewhat adversely affected
in parts of Labrador, where snow and ice
persisted into June, but otherwise should be
normal for this region. Much of central and southern
Quebec experienced a long, cold, dry winter, and a
dry spring. Despite the lack of precipitation, wetlands
were sufficiently abundant and in adequate condition,
and most areas were rated good. Below-average
temperatures persisted through July and substantial
June rainfall caused some flooding. The
southwestern portion of the province was drier, and
habitat there was fair to good. The production outlook
for Quebec is normal to slightly below normal. Spring
weather in southern Ontario was variable, as
initially cool temperatures gave way to mild
weather. Wetlands in southern Ontario and along the
St. Lawrence Valley were in generally good
condition.
Following the survey, several weeks of severe
spring thunderstorms led to flooding in portions of
southwestern Ontario, which may have negatively
impacted early nests there. Good wetland
conditions persisted in southern Ontario and the
St. Lawrence Valley of Ontario through July.
Production there is expected to be normal this
year. Spring was slightly delayed in central
Ontario, but wetlands were in good condition and
production should be normal. Spring was also
slightly delayed in the western James Bay Lowlands
of Ontario; however, the survey in late May revealed
little remaining lake ice, good water conditions, and
well-distributed birds. The production outlook for this
region was normal. The ring-necked duck
population estimate in May was 67% above the
2003 estimate (P=0.095), but similar to the long-term
average (P=0.225). American wigeon and
goldeneyes were similar to their 2003 estimates
(P>0.133), but were 61% (P=0.004) and 42%
(P=0.052) below their long-term averages. None
of the other species, or the total duck estimate,
differed from 2003 estimates or long-term
averages (P>0.133).
Other areas: Conditions were dry in many areas
along the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada.
Breeding habitat conditions in British Columbia
were the worst on record, as indicated by the
greatest number of dry or partially dry wetlands
within the survey area, and the lowest numbers of
total ducks and mallards recorded since the
survey began in 1988. Mild temperatures and low
precipitation during late winter produced a gradual
snow thaw that reduced runoff and led to poor
wetland conditions. Approximately 6,300 ducks
were observed in British Columbia’s annual survey,
which was similar to the 2003 count and the long-term
average (P>0.277). Mallard numbers were 27%
below the long-term average (P=0.015). Conditions
were also dry in Washington, and pothole numbers
were down 35% from 2003 and were 36% below the
long-term average because the pothole region did
not receive the snowmelt runoff it needed to fill
basins. The 2004 total-duck estimate in Washington
was 114,900, down 10% from last year and 28%
below the long-term average. Mallards were up
slightly from 39,800 in 2003 to 40,000 in 2004, but
remain 27% below the long-term average. In
California, winter precipitation was average, but
spring was dry in most of the state. Good conditions
prevailed in the northeastern part of the state, where
good production was expected. Elsewhere, duck
nesting effort will likely be lower than normal. The
total-duck estimate was 412,800, 23% lower than last
year's (P=0.079), and 31% below the long-term
average (P<0.001). Mallards (262,400) were not
significantly different from their 2003 estimate but
were 30% below their long-term average (P<0.003).
In Oregon, similar trends existed for estimates of total
ducks and mallards. Both were similar to those of
2003 (P>0.563), but were 16% and 21% below their
long-term averages, respectively (P>0.042).
Conditions were also generally dry in the interior-western
U.S. In Nebraska, the dry conditions which
began in 2001 and 2002 continued into the fall and
winter of 2003-2004. In the spring of 2004, biologists
counted the lowest number of water areas since
standard survey methods were implemented in 1999.
This was also the lowest count for mallards, blue-winged
teal, gadwall, and pintail. The estimated
breeding population of ducks of almost 70,000 birds
was 27% below the 2003 estimate and 61% below
the 1999-2003 average. Nevada suffered its fourth
year of drought; many wetlands were dry, as were
two complete river systems. Nonetheless, duck
numbers were up. This increase in duck numbers
may reflect the timing of the survey or birds being
20
compressed onto the few remaining wetlands. Total
ducks numbered 24,200, compared to 21,100 in
2003. At 1,700, mallard numbers were similar to the
2003 count. Duck breeding habitat conditions were
still poor to fair in southern and eastern Wyoming, but
spring precipitation improved conditions in northeast
Wyoming. Conditions in Colorado were improved
over 2003, but were still only fair. Cool, wet weather
in the late spring may have delayed nesting. Overall,
only fair to poor duck production is expected from
Colorado this year.
Habitats around the Great Lakes were also
somewhat dry in the spring, but seemed to be in
better shape than those to the west, especially after
many received abundant rain during the late spring.
In Minnesota, pond numbers declined 19% relative to
2003, and were 20% below the 1968-2003 average.
Mallard numbers (375,300) were statistically similar
to the 2003 estimate. At 353,200, blue-winged teal
were 83% higher than the 2003 estimate (P=0.02),
and 54% above the long-term average. Total ducks
numbered 1,008,300, up 40% from 2003, 20% higher
than the 10-year average, and 60% above the long-term
average. During the Wisconsin waterfowl survey
(April 27-May 7) conditions were dry and wetland
numbers were below the long-term mean. However,
abundant rain beginning in late May and continuing
into June improved wetland conditions. Wisconsin
total duck numbers were 22% higher than the 2003
estimate and 58% above the 1973-2003 average.
Mallard numbers were 12% below the 2003 level, but
32% above the long-term mean. In Michigan, the
total duck estimate was 20% higher than last year’s.
Mallard numbers did not differ from last year’s count,
but remained 25% below the long-term average
(P=0.054).
In the Atlantic Flyway states along the East Coast
of the U.S., habitat conditions for nesting waterfowl
were good again this year. Normal to above-normal
late-winter and early-spring rains kept wetlands full,
providing ample nesting habitat. Variable weather
made for variable nest initiation dates. Late-spring
rains likely helped waterfowl broods in the southern
portion of this region, but coupled with cool
temperatures in the northern portions, may have
reduced brood survival there. Total duck and mallard
numbers from the Atlantic Flyway’s Breeding
Waterfowl survey were similar to the 2003 estimates
(P>0.313), and to their long-term averages
(P>0.854).
Mallard Fall-flight Index
The mid-continent mallard population is composed
of mallards from the traditional survey area,
Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and is 8.4 ± 0.3
million (Fig. 3). This is similar to the 2003 estimate of
8.8 ± 0.4 million (P=0.289). The 2004 mid-continent
mallard fall-flight index is 9.4 ± 0.1 million, statistically
similar to the 2003 estimate of 10.3 ± 0.1 million birds
(P=0.467). These indices were based on revised
mid-continent mallard population models, and
therefore, differ from those previously published
(USFWS Adaptive Harvest Management Report
2004, Runge et al. 2002).
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Millions
Fig. 3. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size
of the mallard population in the fall.
REFERENCES
Drought Watch on the Prairies, 2004. Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada.
(www.agr.ca/pfra/drought.htm).
Environment Canada, 2004. Climate Trends and
Variations Bulletin. Green Lane Internet
Publication,Downsview,ON.
(www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/).
NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility.
2004. Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.
Washington, DC.(www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf).
Runge, M. C., F. A. Johnson, J. A. Dubovsky, W.
L. Kendall, J. Lawrence, J. Gammonley.
2002. A revised protocol for the Adaptive
Harvest Management of Mid-Continent
Mallards. (migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/
ahm02/MCMrevise2002.pdf)
Sauer, J.R., and S. Droege. 1990. Wood duck
population trends from the North American
Breeding Bird Survey. Pages 159-165 in L.H.
Frederickson, G. V. Burger, S.P. Havera, D.A.
Graber, R.E. Kirby, and T.S. Taylor, eds.
Proceedings of the 1988 North American Wood
Duck Symposium, St. Louis, MO.
21
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2004. Adaptive
Harvest Management: 2004 Duck Hunting
Season. U.S. Dept. Interior, Washington, D.C.
35pp. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2004.
Waterfowl Population Survey Section area
reports.
Wilkins, K. A., and M. C. Otto. 2004. Trends in
duck breeding populations, 1955-2004. U.S.
Dept. Interior, Washington, D.C. 19pp.
22
STATUS OF GEESE AND SWANS
Abstract: We provide information on the population status and productivity of North American Canada geese
(Branta canadensis), brant (B. bernicla), snow geese (Chen caerulescens), Ross’s geese (C. rossii), emperor
geese (C. canagica), white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) and tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus). The
timing of spring snowmelt in northern goose and swan nesting areas varied in 2004 from very early in western
Alaska to very late in areas near Hudson Bay and in northern Quebec. Reproductive success of geese and
swans in areas that experienced near-average spring phenology might have been reduced by persistent snow
cover and harsh conditions that encompassed a large expanse of migration and staging habitat. Of the 26
populations for which current primary population indices were available, 7 populations (Atlantic Population,
Aleutian, and 3 temperate-nesting populations of Canada geese; Pacific Population white-fronted geese; and
Eastern Population tundra swans) displayed significant positive trends, and only Short Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese displayed a significant negative trend over the most recent 10-year period. The forecast for
production of geese and swans in North America in 2004 is improved from 2003 in the Pacific Flyway, but
generally similar to, or lower than, 2003 for the remainder of North America.
This section summarizes information regarding the
status, annual production of young, and expected fall
flights of goose and tundra swan populations in North
America. Information was compiled from a broad
geographic area and is provided to assist managers
in regulating harvest. We have used the most widely
accepted nomenclature for various waterfowl
populations, but they may differ from other published
information. Some of the goose populations
described herein are comprised of more than 1
subspecies and some light goose populations
contain lesser snow geese and Ross’s geese.
Most populations of geese and swans in North
America nest in the Arctic or subarctic regions of
Alaska and Canada (Fig. 1), but several Canada
goose populations nest in temperate regions of the
United States and southern Canada (“temperate-nesting”
populations). Populations are monitored by
various methods on breeding, migration, or wintering
areas. The annual production of young by northern-nesting
geese is influenced greatly by weather
conditions on the breeding grounds, especially the
timing of spring snowmelt and its impact on the
initiation of nesting activity (i.e., phenology).
Persistent snow cover reduces nest site availability,
delays nesting activity, and often results in depressed
reproductive effort and productivity. In general,
goose productivity will be better than average if
nesting begins by late May in western and central
portions of the Arctic, and by early June in the
eastern Arctic. Production usually is poor if nest
initiations are delayed much beyond 15 June. For
temperate-nesting Canada goose populations,
recruitment rates are less variable, but productivity is
influenced by localized drought and flood events.
METHODS
Population estimates for geese are derived from a
variety of surveys conducted by biologists from
federal, state, and provincial agencies, and
universities (Appendices B, J, and K). Surveys
include the Midwinter Survey (MWS, conducted each
January in wintering areas), the Breeding Population
and Habitat Survey (BPHS, see Duck section of this
report), surveys specifically designed for various
populations, and others. When survey methodology
allowed, 95% confidence intervals were presented
with population estimates. The 10-year trends of
population estimates were calculated through
regression of the natural logarithm of survey results
on year, and slope coefficients were presented and
tested for equality to zero (t-test). Changes in
population indices between the current and previous
years were calculated, and, where possible,
assessed with a z-test using the sum of sampling
variances for the 2 estimates. Primary population
indices, those related to population objectives, are
described first in population-specific sections.
Due to the completion of this report prior to final
field assessment of goose and swan reproduction,
the annual productivity of most goose populations
can only be predicted qualitatively. Information on
habitat conditions and forecasts of productivity were
based primarily on information from various waterfowl
surveys and interviews with field biologists. These
reports provide reliable information for specific
locations but may not provide accurate assessment
for the vast geographic range of waterfowl
populations.
23
Fig. 1. Important goose nesting areas in Arctic and subarctic North America.
La Perouse Bay
Cape Henrietta
Maria
Greenland
Banks
Island
Bylot
Island
Southampton
Island
Ungava
Peninsula
James
Bay
Akimiski
Island
McConnell
River
Queen
Maud
Gulf
Copper
River
Yukon River
Kuskokwim River
Yukon-Kuskokwim
(Y-K) Delta
Baffin Island
Foxe
Basin
Labrador
Plain of
Koukdjuak
Wrangel
Island
Anderson
River
Mackenzie
River Delta
Victoria I
C. Churchill
North Slope
Hudson Bay
24
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Conditions in the Arctic and Subarctic
Spring phenology varied widely throughout North
America in 2004. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and
much of the rest of Alaska reported a very early
spring snowmelt, minimal flooding, and favorable
conditions for nesting geese. In contrast, snow cover
was very persistent near Hudson Bay, the Ungava
Peninsula, and a broad expanse of migration and
staging habitats across Canada’s boreal forest. The
snow and ice cover graphic (Fig. 2, National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration) illustrates the more
extensive snow cover across Canada’s subarctic
region this year compared with 2003.
Fig. 2. The extent of snow and ice cover in North America on 2
June 2003 and 2 June 2004 (data from National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration).
Conditions in Southern Canada and the United
States
Conditions that influence the productivity of
Canada geese vary less from year to year in these
temperate regions than in the Arctic and subarctic.
Given adequate wetland numbers and the
absence of flood events, temperate-nesting
Canada geese are reliably productive. In the
spring of 2004, wetland abundance and condition
in many western states remained depressed from
drought. Well-below average wetland abundance
in the Canadian prairies in 2004 may have
reduced goose productivity there. Most
temperate-nesting Canada goose populations,
with the exception of the Pacific and Rocky
Mountain Populations, likely experienced average
or above average production in 2004.
Status of Canada Geese
North Atlantic Population (NAP): NAP Canada
geese principally nest in Newfoundland and
Labrador. They generally commingle during winter
with other Atlantic Flyway Canada geese, although
NAP geese have a more coastal distribution than
other populations (Fig. 3).
During the 2004 BPHS, biologists estimated 67,800
(+ 34,500) indicated pairs (singles plus pairs) in NAP
range (strata 66 and 67), 12% higher (P=0.758) than
in 2003 (Fig. 4). Indicated pair estimates have
declined an average of 3% per year since surveys
were initiated in 1996 (P=0.289). A total of 197,200
(+ 115,200) Canada geese were estimated during
the BPHS, 48% higher than last year’s estimate
(P=0.341). Total goose estimates have declined an
average of 2% per year during 1996-2004
(P=0.419). The pair density determined by the 2004
expanded CWS helicopter plot survey was 18%
higher than the 2001-2003 average. Spring
conditions were favorable for geese in Newfoundland
and lower elevations of Labrador. A fall flight
somewhat larger than that produced in 2003 is
expected.
Year
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Fig. 4. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of North
Atlantic Population Canada geese breeding pairs during spring.
Atlantic Population (AP): AP Canada geese nest
throughout much of Quebec, especially along
Ungava Bay, the eastern shore of Hudson Bay, and
25
Tall Grass
Prairie
North
Atlantic
Southern
James Bay
Lesser and
Atlantic Taverner’s
Mississippi
Valley
Short Grass
Prairie
Pacific
Dusky
Cackling
Hi-line
Western Prairie
Eastern
Prairie
Atlantic
Flyway
Resident
Aleutian
Rocky
Mountain
Great
Plains
Mississippi
Flyway
Giant
Fig. 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America.
26
on the Ungava Peninsula. The AP winters from New
England to South Carolina, but the largest
concentrations occur on the Delmarva Peninsula
(Fig. 3).
AP surveys in 2004 estimated 174,800 (+ 29,500)
indicated breeding pairs, 11% more than last year
(P=0.358, Fig. 5). This population has increased
from a low of 29,000 breeding pairs in 1995. The
breeding pair estimates have increased an average
of 20% per year during 1995-2004 (P<0.001). The
estimated total spring population of 1,014,600 (+
167,700) geese in 2004 was 33% higher than last
year (P=0.39) but likely was inflated by the presence
of many molt migrants. Spring phenology was
delayed by cold May temperatures and persistent
snow cover throughout much of the northern AP
range. The proportion of indicated pairs observed as
singles (34%) was the lowest recorded since 1993
(mean=49%), suggesting a poor nesting effort. The
number of nests found on Hudson Bay study sites
was reduced 34%, and mean clutch size was
reduced 28% from 2003. At Ungava Bay study
areas, nesting effort was also reduced substantially,
clutch size was lower, and nest-destruction rates
were higher compared to last year. A fall flight
somewhat smaller than last year is expected.
Year
'88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Fig. 5. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Atlantic Population Canada goose breeding pairs in northern
Quebec.
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population (AFRP): This
population of large Canada geese inhabits southern
Quebec, the southern Maritime provinces, and all
states of the Atlantic Flyway (Fig. 3).
Spring surveys in 2004 in AFRP range indicated
there were 980,400 (+ 176,400) Canada geese in
this population (Fig. 6), about 10% fewer than in 2003
(P=0.424). These estimates have increased an
average of 2% per year over the last 10 years
(P=0.049). Nesting conditions in most states were
favorable and production was expected to be above
average. A large fall flight, similar to last year’s is
expected.
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Fig. 6. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population Canada geese during spring.
Southern James Bay Population (SJBP): This
population nests on Akimiski Island and in the
Hudson Bay Lowlands to the west and south of
James Bay. The SJBP winters from southern
Ontario and Michigan to Mississippi, Alabama,
Georgia, and South Carolina (Fig. 3).
Year
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Fig. 7. Estimated total population (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Southern James Bay Population Canada geese during spring.
Breeding ground surveys indicated a spring
population of 101,000 (+ 29,000) Canada geese in
2004, 5% lower than last year (P=0.785, Fig. 7).
These estimates have decreased an average of 1%
per year since 1995 (P=0.488). In 2004, surveys
estimated 37,600 (+ 11,700) breeding pairs, 16%
fewer than in 2003 (P=0.339) and a record low on
Akimiski Island. Surveyors indicated molt migrants
likely were not a factor in this year’s survey. Cold
temperatures in April and early May delayed
snowmelt and goose nest initiation in SJBP range,
especially north of the Albany River. On Akimiski
Island, nesting phenology was the second latest on
27
record, total nest loss was high (41.3%), and
estimated clutch size and the number of goslings
leaving nests was the lowest recorded since nest
monitoring began in 1993. Although conditions in
other portions of the SJBP breeding range may not
have been as severe as on Akimiski, a fall flight
smaller than that of 2003 is expected.
Mississippi Valley Population (MVP): The principal
nesting range of this population is in northern
Ontario, especially in the Hudson Bay Lowlands,
west of Hudson and James Bays. MVP Canada
geese primarily concentrate during fall and winter in
Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan (Fig. 3).
Breeding ground surveys conducted in 2004
indicated a total population of 727,000 (+ 153,800)
MVP Canada geese, a 37% increase from last spring
(P=0.049, Fig. 8). There is little trend in these
estimates since 1995 (1%, P=0.754). The presence
of molt migrant Canada geese likely inflated the total
goose estimate in 2004. Biologists estimated there
were 138,200 (+ 30,700) nests in 2004, 23% fewer
than in 2003 (P=0.104) and the second lowest
number recorded since 1989. Estimates of MVP
nests have declined an average of 3% per year
during 1995-2004 (P=0.134). Cold temperatures in
April and May left the coast of Hudson Bay between
Winisk and Cape Henrietta-Maria 95% snow covered
in late May. Conditions delayed the estimated peak
of hatch to June 30, the latest observed since nesting
studies were initiated in 1985. At Burntpoint Creek,
nest density was reduced by 74% compared with
2003. Reduced nesting effort, low clutch sizes, and
cold and wet weather during incubation and early
brood rearing will contribute to poor production in
2004. A fall flight reduced from 2003 is expected.
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Fig. 8. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Mississippi Valley Population Canada geese during spring.
Mississippi Flyway Giant Population (MFGP):
Giant Canada geese have been reestablished or
introduced in all Mississippi Flyway states. This large
subspecies now represents a significant portion of all
Canada geese in the Mississippi Flyway (Fig. 3).
This population has been monitored with spring
surveys since 1993. In 2004, the preliminary
population estimate was 1,582,200, 3% lower than
the final 2003 estimate of 1,633,000 (Fig. 9). These
estimates have increased an average of 6% per year
since 1995 (P<0.001). Although nesting conditions
were suboptimal in Iowa and Tennessee, most states
expected average or above average production in
2004. Another large fall flight is expected.
Year
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
Thousands
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Fig. 9. Estimated number of Mississippi Flyway Giant Population
Canada geese during spring.
Eastern Prairie Population (EPP): These geese
nest in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of Manitoba and
concentrate primarily in Manitoba, Minnesota, and
Missouri during winter (Fig. 3).
The 2004 spring estimate of EPP geese was
290,700 (+ 36,800), 27% larger than the 2003
estimate (P=0.015, Fig. 10). Spring estimates have
increased an average of 4% per year over the last 10
years (P=0.101). The 2004 estimate of singles and
pairs was 145,500 (+ 19,800), 18% higher than last
year (P=0.091). There is no trend in these estimates
during 1995-2004. However, the estimate of
productive geese (singles and nesting pairs), 48,100,
declined (P=0.001) from 2003 to the second lowest
value record since 1984. May temperatures in EPP
range were the lowest on record since 1976. May
temperature data and delayed nest initiation indicate
a “bust” in production for EPP geese. This year,
biologists at Nestor One observed the latest median
hatch date (11 July), the lowest nest density
(0.008/ha), and lowest mean clutch size (2.2 eggs)
recorded during 1976-2004. A fall flight lower than
2003, including few young is expected.
28
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Fig. 10. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Eastern Prairie Population Canada geese during spring.
Western Prairie and Great Plains Populations
(WPP/GPP): The WPP is composed of mid-sized
and large Canada geese that nest in eastern
Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The GPP is
composed of large Canada geese resulting from
restoration efforts in Saskatchewan, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and
Texas. Geese from these breeding populations
commingle during migration with other Canada
geese along the Missouri River in the Dakotas and
on reservoirs from southwestern Kansas to Texas
(Fig. 3). These 2 populations are managed jointly
and surveyed during winter.
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Fig. 11. Estimated number of Western Prairie Population/Great
Plains Population Canada geese during winter.
During the 2004 MWS survey, 622,100 WPP/GPP
geese were counted, 11% more than the 2003 index
(Fig. 11). These indices have increased an average
of 7% per year since 1995 (P=0.001). A 2004 index
of the spring population in a portion of WPP/GPP
range from the BPHS was 690,000 (+ 123,800), 4%
larger than last year (P=0.749). The BPHS estimates
have also increased an average of 7% per year since
1995 (P<0.001). Goose production in the
northeastern portion of WPP range likely was
reduced by a delayed spring snowmelt similar to that
experienced within EPP range. Wetland abundance
in southern Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and in
Oklahoma was below average but other states
reported favorable nesting conditions. A heavy snow
in mid-May in the U.S. and Canadian prairies may
have impacted production. A fall flight similar to last
year’s is expected.
Tall Grass Prairie Population (TGPP): These small
Canada geese nest on Baffin (particularly on the
Great Plain of the Koukdjuak), Southampton, and
King William Islands; north of the Maguse and
McConnell Rivers on the Hudson Bay coast; and in
the eastern Queen Maud Gulf region. TGPP Canada
geese winter mainly in Oklahoma, Texas, and
northeastern Mexico (Fig. 3). These geese mix with
other Canada geese on wintering areas, making it
difficult to estimate the size of the population.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
*
* Changes in survey coverage or methodology - not comparable with previous surveys
*
Fig. 12. Estimated number of Tall Grass Prairie Population Canada
geese in the Central Flyway during winter.
During the 2004 MWS in the Central Flyway,
458,700 TGPP geese were tallied, 25% fewer than in
2003 (Fig. 12). These estimates have increased an
average of 7% per year during 1995-2004 (P=0.151).
Spring breakup near the McConnell River, Northwest
Territories was delayed by nearly 3 weeks. Limited
information suggests that spring phenology on
Southampton and Baffin Islands was later than in
2003 but near or only slightly later than average.
Important nesting areas were snow-free on 17 June
and 24 June on Baffin and Southampton Island,
respectively. In the Queen Maud Gulf spring snow
melt occurred earlier than average but goose arrival
was delayed, perhaps due to the persistent snow
cover on more southerly staging areas. Biologists on
Southampton Island indicated that snow goose
29
nesting effort appeared to be reduced from 2003, and
on Baffin Island a sample of snow goose clutch sizes
were slightly smaller than in 2003. Limited
information suggests production of TGPP Canada
geese will be below that of 2003.
Short Grass Prairie Population (SGPP): These
small Canada geese nest on Victoria and Jenny Lind
Islands and on the mainland from the Queen Maud
Gulf west and south to the Mackenzie River and
northern Alberta. These geese winter in
southeastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico,
and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles (Fig. 3).
During the 2004 MWS, biologists counted 203,600
SGPP Canada geese, 30% more than in 2003
(Fig. 13). These indices have declined 17% per year
since 1995 (P<0.001). A portion of the SGPP
breeding range in the Northwest Territories is
covered by the BPHS (strata 13-18). The 2004
BPHS estimated 97,500 (+ 36,400) SGPP geese, a
14% increase from 2003 (P=0.642). These
estimates show no trend during 1995-2004
(P=0.903). Spring snowmelt was earlier than
average near Queen Maud Gulf but goose arrival
was delayed, apparently by the persistent snow
cover in a broad strip from the Mackenzie River
mouth to the Hudson Bay coast. Nesting phenology
of Canada geese and light geese are influenced by
many of the same factors. Nest initiations of light
geese at Karrak Lake in 2004 were about 8 days
later than average and clutch sizes were slightly
below the long-term mean. Surveys on Victoria
Island indicated a good Canada goose nesting effort
there. Spring phenology on the mainland of the
western Canadian Arctic was delayed and breeding
success there will likely be reduced. With limited
specific information, production from SGPP geese is
expected to be no better than average.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Fig. 13. Estimated number of Short Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese during winter.
Hi-line Population (HLP): These large Canada
geese nest in southeastern Alberta, southwestern
Saskatchewan, eastern Montana and Wyoming, and
in Colorado. They winter in Colorado and in central
New Mexico (Fig. 3).
The 2004 MWS indicated a total of 215,600 HLP
Canada geese, which is 5% more than last year’s
estimate (Fig. 14). The MWS estimates have
increased an average of 4% per year since 1995
(P=0.128). An estimate of the spring population was
obtained from the 2004 BPHS in areas of
Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Montana. The BPHS
estimate was 200,500 (+ 50,100), 13% lower than
the 2003 estimate (P=0.470). These population
estimates have also increased 4% per year since
1994 (P=0.128). Wetland abundance in southern
Saskatchewan and Alberta in 2004 declined
substantially from 2003 and the long-term average,
and much of Montana and Wyoming remained in
drought. The fall flight of HLP geese is expected to
be similar to that of last year.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Fig. 14. Estimated number of Hi-line Population Canada geese
during winter.
Rocky Mountain Population (RMP): These large
Canada geese nest in southern Alberta and western
Montana, and the inter-mountain regions of Utah,
Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, and Colorado. They
winter mainly in central and southern California,
Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, and Montana (Fig. 3).
The estimated spring population derived from the
BPHS in 2004 was 152,500 (+ 53,800), 13% higher
than last year’s estimate (P=0.590). The BPHS
estimates have increased 3% per year during the last
10 years (P=0.062). During the 2004 MWS (no
survey conducted in Idaho this year), 111,600 geese
were counted, 11% fewer than in 2003 (Fig. 15).
MWS estimates have shown no trend since 1995
(P=0.376). Wetland abundance in southern Alberta
declined substantially from 2003 and the long-term
average, and much of RMP range remained in
30
drought. In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs and
production in Utah are above long-term averages,
and near the most recent 10-year average. The fall
flight of RMP geese is expected to be similar to last
year’s.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Fig. 15. Estimated number of Rocky Mountain Population Canada
geese during winter.
Pacific Population (PP): These large Canada
geese nest and winter west of the Rocky Mountains
from northern Alberta and British Columbia south
through the Pacific Northwest to California (Fig. 3).
The BPHS index of PP geese in Alberta (strata 76-
77) was 59,300 in 2004, 23% lower than in 2003
(P=0.480). These estimates have increased an
average of 5% per year since 1995 (P=0.138). Most
PP breeding areas remain under drought conditions
but average or better production was reported in
portions of Oregon and northeast California. Wetland
abundance in the range of the PP continues to be
reduced by drought. Predictions of PP production or
fall flight cannot be reliably made without more
information.
Dusky Canada Geese: These mid-sized Canada
geese predominantly nest on the Copper River Delta
of southeastern Alaska, and winter principally in the
Willamette and Lower Columbia River Valleys of
Oregon and Washington (Fig. 3).
The size of the population is estimated through
observations of marked geese during December and
January. The 2003-2004 population estimate was
14,900 (+ 3,500), 11% lower than in 2002-2003
(P=0.475, Fig. 16). These estimates have increased
an average 6% per year during the last 10-year
period (P=0.900). Preliminary results from the 2004
spring survey of the Copper River Delta indicated the
index of total dusky Canada geese increased 4%,
and singles and pairs increased 23% from last year’s
levels. Both estimates remain below the 1986-2003
average. The Copper River Delta experienced a
warm spring, with snowmelt about 1 week earlier
than average. Nesting phenology was early and an
extended euchalon run reduced bald eagle predation
on dusky geese. A fall flight higher than last year is
expected.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
5
10
15
20
25
30
Fig. 16. Estimated number of dusky Canada geese during winter.
Cackling Canada Geese: Cackling Canada geese
nest on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) of
western Alaska. They primarily winter in the
Willamette and Lower Columbia River Valleys of
Oregon and Washington (Fig. 3).
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Fig. 17. Number of cackling Canada geese estimated from fall and
spring surveys.
The index used for this population was a fall
estimate from 1979-1998. Since 1999, the index has
been an estimate of the fall population derived from
spring counts of adults on the YKD. The 2004 fall
estimate is 130,200, 21% lower than in 2003. These
estimates have decreased an average of 1% per
year since 1995 (P=0.435, Fig. 17). Surveys in the
coastal zone of the YKD during spring 2004 indicated
little change in single and paired cackling geese, and
a decrease of 27% in total birds from 2003 estimates.
An early spring snowmelt led to advanced nesting
31
phenology in 2004. Estimated hatching dates for
cackling geese were 12 days earlier than average
and the earliest since 1982. YKD nesting surveys
indicated increases in nest numbers, mean clutch
size, and nest success. With the good production
outlook this year, a fall flight exceeding last year’s
is expected.
Lesser and Taverner’s Canada Geese: These
subspecies nest throughout much of interior and
south-central Alaska and winter in Washington,
Oregon, and California (Fig. 3). Taverner’s geese
are more associated with the North Slope and tundra
areas, while lesser Canada geese tend to nest in
Alaska’s interior. However, these subspecies mix
with other Canada geese throughout the year and
reliable estimates of separate populations are not
presently available.
The estimated number of Canada geese within
BPHS strata predominantly occupied by these geese
(strata 1-6, 8, 10-12) in 2004 decreased 29% from
2003 levels. These estimates have declined an
average of 2% per year since 1995 (P=0.123).
Throughout most of Alaska, spring phenology was
early and spring flooding was limited. Nesting
success of lesser Canada geese in the interior was
assessed as good and production should be above
average. Spring snowmelt on the North Slope was
delayed slightly but geese appeared to initiate nests
earlier than average. Production of these geese
should be above average.
Aleutian Canada Geese (ACG): These geese now
nest primarily on the Aleutian Islands, although
historically they nested from near Kodiak Island,
Alaska to the Kuril Islands in Asia. They now winter
along the Pacific Coast to central California (Fig. 3).
The Aleutian Canada goose was listed as
endangered in 1967 (the population numbered
approximately 800 birds in 1974) and was delisted in
2001.
An indirect population estimate based on
observations of neckbanded geese in California
during 2003-2004 was 69,900 (+ 11,600), 12%
higher than last year’s record high (P=0.459, Fig. 18).
These indirect estimates have increased an average
of 12% per year over the last 10 years (P<0.001).
The Aleutian Islands experienced low winter snowfall
and an early spring breakup and green-up. A survey
crew on Nizki Island in 2004 found more than 4 times
more nests than were found in 1998. Aleutian geese
there nested earlier in 2004 than previously recorded,
which should lead to good production.
Year
'74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Fig. 18. Number of Aleutian Canada geese estimated from
winter estimates and mark-resight methods.
Status of Light Geese
The term light geese refers to both snow geese
and Ross’s geese (including both white and blue
color phases), and the lesser (C. c. caerulescens)
and greater (C. c. atlantica) snow goose
subspecies. Another collective term, mid-continent
light geese, includes lesser snow and
Ross’s geese of 2 populations: the Mid-continent
Population and the Western Central Flyway
Population.
Ross’s Geese: Most Ross's geese nest in the
Queen Maud Gulf region, but increasing numbers
nest along the western coast of Hudson Bay and
Southampton, Baffin, and Banks Islands. Ross's
geese are present in the range of 3 different
populations of light geese and primarily winter in
California, New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico, with
increasing numbers in Louisiana and Arkansas (Fig.
19).
Periodic photo-inventories and annual surveys in
the Queen Maud Gulf indicate the spring Ross’s
goose population has increased rapidly and has
exceeded 800,000 geese in recent years. Annual
estimates of total population size in winter are not
available, but surveys on wintering areas of light
geese indicate increases in range, number, and
proportions of Ross's geese. The largest Ross’s
goose colony is near Karrak Lake in the Queen Maud
Gulf. Researchers estimated that 433,800 adult
Ross’s geese nested there in 2003, a 19% increase
from 2002 (Fig. 20). These estimates have
increased an average of 11% per year from 1995-
2003 (P<0.001). Spring snowmelt was earlier than
average near Queen Maud Gulf but goose arrival
was delayed, apparently by the persistent snow
cover in a broad strip from the Mackenzie River
mouth to the Hudson Bay coast. Nest initiation at
32
Atlantic
Brant
Pacific
Brant
Fig. 19. Approximate ranges of brant and snow, Ross's, and white-fronted goose populations in North America.
Pacific Mid-continent
Populations of Greater
White-fronted Geese
Mid-continent
Western Central
Flyway
Populations of
Light Geese
Wrangel
Island
Populations of
Brant
Ross's
Geese
Greater
Snow
Geese
Western
Arctic
Populations of
Light Geese
33
Karrak Lake in 2004 was about 8 days later than
average and clutch sizes were reduced from the
long-term mean. Weather conditions during the
incubation period were generally unfavorable.
Increasing numbers of Ross’s geese are nesting
near the McConnell River, where nest initiation was
delayed by about 3 weeks compared to 2003. Nest
success there was poor in 2004. Under similar
circumstances of near-average spring phenology on
major light goose breeding areas and broad areas of
snow cover in migration habitats in 2002, harvest age
ratios for Ross’s geese were depressed
considerably. Conditions in 2004 were similar to
those in 2002, but nesting conditions at McConnell
River and incubation weather in the Queen Maud
Gulf were harsher this year. Overall, Ross’s geese
are expected to experience below average
production this year. The size of the fall flight cannot
be predicted without an annual index to the size of
the total breeding population.
Year
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03
Thousands
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Fig. 20. Estimated number of nesting adult Ross’s geese at Karrak
Lake Colony, Nunavut.
Mid-continent Population Light Geese (MCP): This
population, including lesser snow geese and
increasing numbers of Ross’s geese, nests along the
west coast of Hudson Bay and on Southampton and
Baffin Islands (Fig. 19). These geese winter primarily
in eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
During the 2004 MWS, biologists counted
2,154,100 light geese, 12% fewer than last year (Fig.
21, a portion of Louisiana was not surveyed in 2004).
Due to declines in these indices since 1997, the
1995-2004 data now indicate an average decline of
2% per year (P=0.087). Biologists on Southampton
and Baffin Islands during June reported snow and ice
conditions similar to, or slightly delayed from last
year. However, goose arrival and nest initiation
might have been delayed by persistent snow cover
on migration areas near Hudson Bay. Under similar
conditions in 2002, harvest age ratios for light geese
were depressed substantially. Clutch sizes from a
small sample of snow goose nests on Baffin Island
were slightly reduced from those observed in 2003.
Survey biologists’ impressions were that nesting
effort on Southampton Island was reduced from
2003. High nest destruction rates were reported from
3 Hudson Bay Colonies. At La Perouse Bay, spring
phenology was extremely late in 2004. Biologists
there suggest the late nesting phenology and natural
senescence of food plants with fall photo-period will
yield poor survival of late hatched goslings. The
production and fall flight of MCP geese likely will be
reduced from 2003 levels when nesting conditions
were favorable.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Fig. 21. Estimated number of Mid-continent Population light geese
(lesser snow and Ross’s geese) during winter.
Western Central Flyway Population (WCFP): This
population is composed primarily of snow geese but
includes a substantial proportion of Ross's geese.
WCF geese nest in the central and western
Canadian Arctic, with large nesting colonies near
the Queen Maud Gulf and on Banks Island. These
geese stage during fall in eastern Alberta and
western Saskatchewan and concentrate during
winter in southeastern Colorado, New Mexico, the
Texas Panhandle, and the northern highlands of
Mexico (Fig. 19).
WCFP geese wintering in the U.S. portion of their
range are surveyed annually, but the entire range,
including Mexico, is surveyed only once every 3
years. In the U.S. portion of the survey, 135,300
geese were counted in January 2004, 28% more
than last year (Fig. 22). There has been no trend in
growth for this population during 1995-2004
(P=0.783). Spring snowmelt was earlier than
average near Queen Maud Gulf but goose arrival
was delayed, apparently by the persistent snow
cover in a broad strip from the Mackenzie River
mouth to the Hudson Bay coast. A BPHS survey
34
crew in southern Saskatchewan observed relatively
high numbers of geese in May 2004, which may
have reflected a suspended northward migration.
Nest initiation at Karrak Lake in 2004 was about 8
days later than average and clutch sizes were
reduced from the long-term mean. Under the
circumstance of near-average spring phenology on
major light goose breeding areas and broad areas of
snow cover in migration habitats in 2002, harvest age
ratios for light geese were depressed considerably.
Weather conditions during the incubation period were
generally unfavorable for geese in the Queen Maud
Gulf. Spring phenology on Banks Island was
reported as late, and Inuvialuit residents reported a
reduced nesting effort there. Overall, production is
expected to be below average for this population.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
Fig. 22. Estimated number of Western Central Flyway
Population light geese during winter in the United States.
Western Arctic/Wrangel Island Population
(WAWI): Most of the snow geese in the Pacific
Flyway originate from nesting colonies in the
western and central Arctic (WA: Banks Island, the
Anderson and Mackenzie River Deltas, the
western Queen Maud Gulf region) or Wrangel
Island (WI), located off the northern coast of
Russia. The WA segment of the population
winters in central and southern California, New
Mexico, and Mexico; the WI segment winters in
the Puget Sound area of Washington and in
northern and central California (Fig. 19). In winter,
WA and WI segments commingle with light geese
from other populations in California, complicating
winter surveys.
The fall 2003 estimate of WAWI snow geese
was 587,800, 2% lower than estimated in 2002
(Fig. 23). Fall estimates have increased 4% per year
during 1994-2003 (P=0.132). Spring phenology on
Banks Island was reported as late, and Inuvialuit
residents reported a reduced nesting effort there.
Surveys indicated little nesting effort at Andersen
River or Kendall Island in 2004. At Wrangel Island’s
Tundra River colony, nesting phenology was near
average. Preliminary estimates from biologists on
Wrangel Island include a spring population of
110,000, >28,000 nests, a mean clutch size of 3.6
eggs, and 75% nest success. These estimates are
consistent with above average production. A fall
flight similar to last year’s is expected.
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Fig. 23. Estimated number of Western Arctic/Wrangel Island
Population light geese during fall.
Greater Snow Geese (GSG): This subspecies
principally nests on Bylot, Axel Heiberg, Ellesmere,
and Baffin Islands, and on Greenland. These geese
winter along the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to
North Carolina (Fig. 19).
This population is monitored on their spring staging
areas near the St. Lawrence Valley in Quebec.
Using improved methodology (use of 5 survey aircraft
rather than 3) the preliminary estimate from spring
2004 was 957,600 (+ 81,100), 41% higher than the
last year’s final estimate (678,000, Fig. 24). Spring
estimates of greater snow geese have increased an
average of 2% per year since 1995 (P=0.155). The
number of snow geese counted during the 2004
MWS in the Atlantic Flyway was 552,100, a 37%
increase from the previous survey. Midwinter counts
have increased an average of 5% per year during
1995-2004 (P=0.059). The largest known greater
snow goose nesting colony is on Bylot Island. There,
initial snowmelt and nesting effort occurred earlier
than average but a week of cold and snow
interrupted and prolonged the nest initiation period.
Overall, nesting effort will be reduced from the high
level in 2003. Despite high nest success, near
average clutch sizes, and good weather during the
hatching period, biologists expected only average
production. A fall flight similar to last year’s is
expected.
35
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Fig. 24. Estimated number of greater snow geese during spring.
Status of Greater White-fronted Geese
Pacific Population White-fronted Geese (PP):
These geese primarily nest on the Yukon Delta of
Alaska and winter in the Central Valley of California
(Fig. 19).
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Mid-continent Population
Pacific Population
Fig. 25. Estimated number of Mid-continent and Pacific Population
greater white-fronted geese during fall.
The index for this population was a fall estimate
from 1979-1998. Since 1999, the index has been a
fall population estimate derived from spring surveys
of adults on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) and
Bristol Bay. The 2004 fall estimate is 374,900, 11%
lower than in 2003 (Fig. 25). These estimates have
increased an average of 3% per year since 1995
(P=0.049). Spring aerial surveys in the YKD coastal
zone indicated decreases in total white-fronts (15%)
and breeding pairs (7%) from 2003 levels. Spring
estimates of total white-fronted geese on the entire
YKD and Bristol Bay have increased an average of
2% per year from 1995-2004 (P=0.122). An early
spring snowmelt led to advanced nesting phenology
in 2004. The number of nests found during YKD
nesting surveys in 2004 was the highest recorded
since 1982. Clutch sizes and nest success were also
above average. A fall flight similar to last year’s is
expected.
Mid-continent Population White-fronted Geese
(MCP): These white-fronted geese nest across a
broad region from central and northwestern
Alaska to the central Arctic and the Foxe Basin.
They concentrate in southern Saskatchewan
during the fall and in Texas, Louisiana, and
Mexico during winter (Fig. 19).
During the fall 2003 survey in Saskatchewan and
Alberta, biologists counted 528,200 MCP geese, a
decrease of 17% from the 2002 count (Fig. 25).
During 1994-2003, these estimates have declined
an average of 3% per year (P=0.270). Spring
phenology in MCP range varied from early in
Alaska’s interior to late in the western Canadian
Arctic. In the Queen Maud Gulf region spring
phenology was earlier than average but goose
arrival may have been delayed by the persistent
snow cover in a broad strip from the Mackenzie
River mouth to the Hudson Bay coast. On
Alaska’s North Slope white-fronted goose broods
were observed earlier than average. Production
of white-fronted geese in 2004 was assessed as
above average in interior Alaska, likely near
average or slightly below near Queen Maud Gulf
and Victoria Island, and below average in the
western Canadian Arctic. A fall flight somewhat
lower than last year’s is expected.
Status of Brant
Atlantic Brant (ATLB): Most of this population
nests on islands of the eastern Arctic. These brant
winter along the Atlantic Coast from
Massachusetts to North Carolina (Fig. 19).
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Atlantic brant
Pacific brant
Fig. 26. Estimated number of Atlantic and Pacific Population brant
during winter.
36
The 2004 MWS estimate of brant in the Atlantic
Flyway was 129,600, 21% fewer than last year’s
estimate (Fig. 26). These estimates have
increased an average of 2% per year for the most
recent 10-year period (P=0.227). Biologists on
Southampton and Baffin Islands during June
reported snow and ice conditions similar to or slightly
delayed from 2003. However, brant arrival to nesting
areas may have been delayed by persistent snow
cover on migration areas near Hudson and James
Bays in 2004. Under similar conditions in 2002,
harvest age ratios for brant were depressed
substantially.
Pacific Brant (PACB): These brant nest across
Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) and North
Slope, Banks Island, other islands of the western
and central Arctic, the Queen Maud Gulf, and
Wrangel Island. They winter as far south as Baja
California and the west coast of Mexico (Fig. 19).
The 2004 MWS in the Pacific Flyway and Mexico
resulted in a count of 119,200 brant, 12% more than
the previous year�����s count (Fig. 26). These
estimates have decreased an average of 2% per
year during 1995-2004 (P=0.081). Spring
phenology was early on the YKD, slightly delayed
on the North Slope, and delayed on Banks and
other northern islands. Brant nesting effort in 2004
increased in 4 of the 5 colonies on the YKD from
2004, but remained approximately 24% below the 8-
year average. Clutch sizes and nest success on
the YKD were higher than in the very poor year of
2003. Production of brant in 2004 should be
improved somewhat over 2003, but the fall flight is
expected to be similar to last year’s.
Western High Arctic Brant (WHA): This recently
recognized population of brant nests on the Parry
Islands of the Northwest Territories. The
population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon,
Alaska. They predominantly winter in Padilla,
Samish, and Fidalgo Bays of Washington and
near Boundary Bay, British Columbia, although
some individuals have been observed as far
south as Mexico. The development of a
management plan and monitoring program are
underway for this newly designated population.
According to satellite imagery, most of Melville
and Prince Patrick Islands remained snow
covered on 30 June 2004. This suggests
another poor production year for WHA brant.
Status of Emperor Geese
The breeding range of emperor geese is restricted
to coastal areas of the Bering Sea, with the largest
concentration on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta
(YKD) in Alaska. Emperor geese migrate relatively
short distances and primarily winter in the Aleutian
Islands (Fig. 27). Since 1981, emperor geese have
been surveyed annually on spring staging areas in
southwestern Alaska.
The spring 2004 emperor survey estimate was
47,400 geese, 34% lower than last year (Fig. 28).
These estimates have shown no trend for the last
10-year period (P=0.829). Spring indices of
breeding pairs from the YKD coastal survey
increased 19%, and the total bird index was
unchanged from 2003 levels. An early spring
snowmelt led to advanced emperor goose nesting
phenology in 2004, the earliest in 20 years. YKD
nesting surveys indicated record-high nest
numbers, and higher than average nest success
and mean clutch size. A fall flight larger than last
year’s is expected.
Eastern
Tundra
Swans
Western
Tundra
Swans
Emperor
Geese
Fig. 27. Approximate range of emperor geese, and eastern and
western tundra swan populations in North America.
37
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Fig. 28. Estimated numbers of emperor geese present during May
surveys.
Status of Tundra Swans
Western Population Tundra Swans: These
swans nest along the coastal lowlands of western
Alaska, particularly between the Yukon and
Kuskokwim Rivers. They winter primarily in
California, Utah, and the Pacific Northwest (Fig.
27).
The 2004 MWS estimate of 83,000 swans was
19% lower than the 2003 estimate (Fig. 29). These
estimates have shown no trend for the last 10
years (P=0.851). Spring phenology was very early
throughout most of western Alaska. Surveys in the
coastal zone of the YKD during spring 2004
indicated breeding swan and total swan numbers
increased 20% and 18% from 2003, respectively.
Nest plot surveys indicated an increase in swan
nests from 2003, a record-high clutch size (5.5
eggs) and above average nest success. A fall
flight larger than last year’s is expected.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
Eastern Population
Western Population
Fig. 29. Estimated numbers of Eastern and Western Population
tundra swans during winter.
Eastern Population Tundra Swans: Eastern
Population tundra swans nest from the Seward
Peninsula of Alaska to the northeast shore of
Hudson Bay and Baffin Island. These birds winter
in coastal areas from Maryland to North Carolina
(Fig. 27)
During the 2004 MWS, 95,000 eastern tundra
swans were observed, 12% fewer than last year
(Fig. 29). During the last 10 years, these
estimates have increased an average of 3% per
year (P=0.018). Spring phenology on the
mainland of the western Canadian Arctic was
delayed and breeding success there will likely be
reduced. Nesting conditions in most other major
breeding areas were near average or slightly
delayed (less important breeding areas around
Hudson Bay were greatly delayed) but swan
reproductive success also may have been
reduced by harsh conditions on migration habitats
in 2004. Overall, a fall flight lower that last year’s
is expected.
38
Appendix A. Individuals that supplied information on the status of ducks.
______________________________________________________________________________________
Alaska, Yukon Territory, and Old Crow Flats (Strata 1-12): B. Conant and D. Groves
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and Northwest Territories (Strata 13-18, 20, and 77): C.
Ferguson and W. Mullins
Northern Saskatchewan and Northern Manitoba (Strata 21-24): F. Roetker and P. Stinson
Southern and Central Alberta (Strata 26-29, 75, and 76):
Air E. Buelna Huggins and C. Pyle
Ground P. Pryor a, K. Froggatt b, S. Barry a, E. Hofman b, C. Procter a, M. Barr c, N. Clements a, N. Fontaine c, J.
Going a, R. Hunka c, T. Mathews c, B. Peers c, R. Russell b, J. Spenst c, and K. Zimmer a
Southern Saskatchewan (Strata 30-35):
Air P. Thorpe, T. Lewis, R. King, and C. Reighn
Ground D. Nieman a, J. Smith a, K. Warner a, K. Dufour a, C. Wilkinson a, K. Cochrane a, P. Nieman a, A.
Williams c, M. Schuster a, D. Caswell a, J. Leafloor a, P. Rakowski a, F. Baldwin a, R. Bazin a, J.
Caswell a, J. Galbraith a, C. Lindgren c, C. Meuckon a, and N. Wiebe a
Southern Manitoba (Strata 25 and 36-40):
Air R. King and C. Reighn
Ground M. Schuster a, D. Caswell a, J. Leafloor a, P. Rakowski a, F. Baldwin a, G. Ball b, J. Caswell a, J.
Galbraith a, C. Lindgren c, C. Meuckon a, N. Wiebe a, and R. Olson d
Montana and Western Dakotas (Strata 41-44):
Air J. Voelzer and R. Bentley
Ground K. Richkus and D. D’Auria
Eastern Dakotas (Strata 45-49):
Air J. Solberg and M. Rich
Ground P. Garrettson, A. Araya, K. Kruse, and T. Thorn
Central Quebec (Strata 68 and 69):
Air J. Wortham, D. Fronczak, and J. Goldsberry d
Helicopter D. Holtby b, R. Raftovich, and G. Boomer
New York, Eastern Ontario, and Southern Quebec (Strata 52-56): M. Koneff, D. Forsell, and M. Jones
Central and Western Ontario (Strata 50 and 51): K. Bollinger and W. Butler
Maine and Maritimes (Strata 62-67): J. Bidwell and M. Drut
British Columbia: A. Breault b, P. Watts d, and participants from the Canadian Wildlife Service, Ducks Unlimited Canada,
British Columbia Wildlife Branch, Canadian Parks Service, and private organizations
California:
Air D. Yparraguirre b and M. Weaver b
Ground D. Loughman d and J. Laughlin d
Colorado: J. Gammonley b
Michigan: S. Chadwick b, B. Dybas-Berger b, E. Flegler b, E. Kafcas b, A. Karr b, J. Niewoonder b, T. Oliver b, J.
Robison b, B. Scullonb, and V. Weigold b
Minnesota:
Air A. Buchert b and S. Cordts b
Ground S. Kelly, J. Artmann, W. Brininger, J. Holler, R. Papasso, T. Rondeau, S. Zodrow, K. Bosquet, L.
Deede, C. Hanson, D. Johnson, J. Kelley, A. Rife, and L. Wolff
Nebraska:
Air D. Benning d M. Vrtiska b, and N. Lyman d
Ground T. Krolikowski b
Data Analysis M. Vrtiska b
Nevada: C. Mortimore b and N. Saake b
39
Appendix A. Continued.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Northeastern U.S.:
Data Analysis B. Raftovich and H. Bellary
Connecticut M. Huang b K. Kubik b, and K. LeRose b
Delaware T. Whittendale b
Maryland unavailable
Massachusetts Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife personnel
New Hampshire E. Robinson b, J. Robinson b, E. Orff b, T. Walski b, K. Bordeau b, K. Bontaites b, W. Staats b, W. Ingham
b, J. Kelley b, W. Staats b, K. Tuttle b, A.Timmins b, and S. Wheeler b
New Jersey T. Nichols b, J. Garris b, C. Gruber b, B. Kirkpatrick b, J. Mangino b, J. Powers b, L. Widjeskog b, D.
Wilkinson b, J. Ziemba b, and N. Zimpfer b
New York Staff and volunteers of the NY State Department of Environmental Conservation
Pennsylvania M. Casalena b, J. Dunn b, J. Gilbert b, I. Gregg b, T. Hardisty b, K. Jacobs b, A. Keister b, M. Lovallo b,
B. Palmer b, C. Rosenbery b, M. Ternent b, and C. Thoma b
Rhode Island C. Brown b, L. Gibson b, T. Silvia d, and B. Tefft b
Vermont D. Sausville b, T. Appleton b, J. Austin b, J. Buck b, D. Blodgett b, F. Hammond b, J. Mlcuch b, and K.
Royar b
Virginia unavailable
Oregon:
Air B. Bales, B. Brim d , B. Bowen d, M. St. Louis b, T. Collom b, and M. Kirsch b
Data Analysis S. Nelson b, B. Bales b, and A. Turacek d
Washington: R. Friesz b , D. Base b, D. Volsen b, H. Ferguson b, P. Fowler b, J. Tabor b, J. Cotton b, T. McCall b, B.
Patterson b, S. Fitkin b, J. Heinlen b, M. Livingston b, J. Bernatowicz b, E. Krausz b, and T. Hames b
Wisconsin:
Air B. Bacon b, C. Cold b, C. Milestone b, and B. Glenzinski b
Ground K. Van Horn b, T. Bahti b, K. Belling b, N. Christel b, J. Cole b, P. David b, G. Dunsmoor b, B. Hill b, J.
Huff b, R. Lichtie b, D. Matheys b, R. McDonough b, K. Morgan b, A. Nelson b, D. North b, A. Oberc, b J.
Robaidek b, M. Windsor b, A. Kitchen, R. Krueger, L. Nieman, J. Ruwaldt, and G. VanVreede,
Wyoming: L. Roberts b
We also wish to acknowledge the following individuals and groups:
The states of the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyway and Regions 3, 4, and 5 of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for
collecting mid-winter waterfowl survey data, from which we extract black duck counts, and J. Serie, K. Gamble, B.
Raftovich, and D. Fronczak for summarizing the counts; and the volunteers of the North American Breeding Bird Survey
(a survey coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division [USGS/BRD]) for data used in
estimation of wood duck population trends, and J. Sauer, USGS for conducting the wood duck trend analyses.
a Canadian Wildlife Service
b State, Provincial, or Tribal Conservation Agency
c Ducks Unlimited - Canada
d Other organization
All others ��� U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
40
Appendix B. Individuals that supplied information on the status of geese and swans.
Flyway-wide and Regional Survey Reports: T. Bowman, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, M. Drut, J. Fischer, D.
Fronczak, K. Gamble, K. Kruse, R. Oates, R. Raftovich, J. Serie, D. Sharp, R. Stehn, R. Trost, and G. Walters
Information from the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey: see Appendix A
North Atlantic Population of Canada Geese