Open Thread: RAB Fantasy Football League Recap

Just as the NFL regular season came to an end last night, the 2009 edition of the RAB Fantasy Football League wrapped up as well. This year’s champ was sadly not me, but instead Greg Fertel of the great Pending Pinstripes. Greg beat out Right Field Porches (I’m sorry, I have no idea who you are, so identify yourself in the comments if you want credit) 110.14-94.62 in the finals. RAB regular Jamal G. finished in third place, and last year’s champ, the aptly named Tommie’s Champions, finished in sixth.

Greg had Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, and Tony Romo on his roster, all three of whom were among the league’s ten highest scoring players. Johnson had almost a 25 point advantage over Aaron Rodgers as the league’s most productive player, and nearly a 70 point edge over third place Adrian Peterson. I guess 2,006 rushing yards and an NFL record 2,509 yards from scrimmage will do that.

As for me, well I finished in 14th place out of 16 teams. That’s what happens when you have Chad Pennington as you’re starting QB in Week One, Terrell Owens as your number two WR, and Willie Parker on your roster period. By the time Jerome Harrison starting going nuts, it was too late. Only the presence of Maurice Jones-Drew made my team tolerable.

So congrats to Greg. His prize for winning: a pair of bleacher tickets to the Yankee game of his choosing during the upcoming season. Maybe next year I’ll win myself a pair of tickets from myself. If you’re curious, the final standings are after the jump.

Anyway, here’s your open thread for the night. There’s no MNF (boo), but the Rangers are taking on the Bruins at home (yay, but I’m sure it’ll eventually turn to boos). The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Boise St. vs. TCU) is also on tonight. I guess they’ll get around to playing the National Championship Game when the weather warms up in the Northeast. Anything goes, so have fun.

I just want to note that Aaron Rodgers is quite the awesomeness. That is all.

JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

I want in next year.

Sure, I know barely anything about football (much less fantasy), but I could certainly come up with an inappropriate name and fare better than Ken Phelps or Kendra Wilkenson.

http://Fmylife.com JobaJr

LET’S GO BRUINS!!!

Jake H

I need baseball bad. I watched all the WS games today.

J

MLBTR has Heyman saying Beltre is close to deal with Sox

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

6:28pm: And here comes Peter Gammons down the stretch with terms, tweeting: “Beltre 1 yr. Deal for $9m with player option for $5m. Physical coming.”

Coming from Gammons it might as well be official. He has Theo and Henry on speed dial.

Ray Fuego

45 more days..

Withdrawal has been a killer..

Evilest Empire

Good ole ESPN. Due to that ridiculous article regarding the blatant, ignorant and unfounded speculation of the Yankees possibly getting King Albert, the rumor link on ESPN’s MLB page reads “Yankees have eye on Pujols”

Clever though. I wouldn’t be surprised if they milked a few insider subscriptions from that. In all fairness, ESPN’s Insider is pretty sweet considering you get a subscription to their magazine along with it.

Buster Olney’s blog is great. Keith Law does some awesome insider things. I’m a rumor whore so their rumor central is fun to contrast with MLB trade rumors. Most of their football stuff is solid. The magazine isn’t that great but its what I usually read on the shitter, where it serves its purpose.

JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

Right, there is quality content on there in certain spots. I wouldn’t call Olney’s blog “great,” though Law does a really nice job. It’s a serviceable publication, but it doesn’t put out quality content consistently, which is my measuring stick.

ESPN the Mag is absolutely worthless. I’d rather read a NAMBLA newsletter.

Accent Shallow

ESPN the Mag is absolutely worthless. I’d rather read a NAMBLA newsletter.

I’d disagree here. I was in my doctor’s office the other day, and one of the issues had some scouting stuff that I’d never seen before, and I’m as plugged in as anyone. Of course, one man’s opinion isn’t gospel, but it’s interesting stuff.

It’s AWESOME. The writing is erudite and pithy. Those boys at NAMBLA are always on point. It’s like reading The Great Gatsby, only with all the shitty and boring parts removed. You can’t put it down, trust me.

(A tip: stay away from the crossword. It gets a little blue.)

vin

I’d consider paying more not to get that garbage magazine, but I’m too lazy to look into it. (that’s just me though)

Johan Iz My Brohan

I finished second overall with a 11-3 record in my league, this was also my first time trying FF.

The self-loathing and fatalism spewing from the mouths of so-called “Jets Fans” (or the idiots in the media who claim to speak on their behalf) this past week was nauseating.

I felt ashamed to be associated with those ninnies. “Oh, how are we gonna screw it up this time, same ol’ Jets, blah blah blah…”

Fellas: You’re making the rest of us look bad. The world is not out to get us. We just weren’t that good before; that’s why we failed when it was time to deliver. Things can change.

Grow a pair.

mustang

Two of my best friends are Yankees/Jets Fans and its like they are different people. I had more confidences in the Jets then they did and I’m a Giants fan.
It’s that Cubs and pre 2004 Red Sox thing were they almost seem accustomed to having bad things happen. That ” lovable loser thing” never plays with me losing plain old sucks.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

In fairness, you wouldn’t be in if the Colts didn’t roll over for you. I’m not gonna talk shit but it wasn’t exactly some grand accomplishment or dramatic changing of the guard.

I like him. I want to get rid of Gilbride though. The man is terrible. People give him credit for the Super Bowl when the offense wasn’t very good that year either. The offense wasn’t even that good during the playoff run.

As an ND fan, I’d love to see Weiss as the offensive coordinator. ND always had good offenses under him.

He reminds me of Bill Callahan: He’s a football genius, capable of doing anything well except for one thing: being the head man in charge. Give him a clipboard and let him scheme and never have to have final say on anything, and he’s fine.

Nady Nation

ND’s offense looked great against the mostly cupcake schedules they faced during Weis’ tenure.

I admit I could be biased since I despise Notre Dame, but I dunno – the fact that he’s totally regressed the ND football program seems too Sheridinian to me.

A) When Peyton was pulled, we were winning the game. It’s not impossible to think we could have won the game even if they played their starters all the way through. The Colts are a great team, but they’re not unbeatable. They probably should have lost to the Patriots earlier this year, if you remember.

B) The Jets post-Thanksgiving record: 5-1. Yes, the schedule wasn’t very tough, but 5-1 is still 5-1. Nothing to apologize for there.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Hold on, weren’t the Colts winning 15-10?

And I’d bet my left nut that the Colts would have won that game. I’d bet perhaps not my nut by maybe my little toe that they would have won with more or less ease, too.

Whoops, you’re correct. Peyton made it 15-10, then we drove it to midfield and punted, forced a three-and-out with Painter at QB, punted back to them again, and then had a sack-strip-fumble recovery in the end zone to take the lead back. My bad.

Still, a 15-10 lead with 25:13 left in the game when Peyton was pulled is not fait accompli that the Colts would have won that game. We were in that game, and we were gashing the Colts defense on the ground all night, both starters and reserves.

You may have lost your left nut.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Peyton was on pace to drop 30 on you guys, or close. There’s no way the Jets would’ve won. None. It’s an insult to the Colts to say that they would have. Jets really are not THAT good. Congrats, you made it to the playoffs…but you should’ve lost that game.

We stopped him 3 out of his 6 drives, 4 if you count holding them to a field goal.

Again:
1.) Peyton is awesome. He should be the MVP this year.
2.) Removing him made our job easier.
3.) Had he played the whole game, they probably would have scored more than 15 points, because he’s a better QB than Curtis Painter.
4.) We still scored 29 points on them.
5.) We could have won the game even if he played all 60 minutes.

There’s no way the Jets would’ve won. None. It’s an insult to the Colts to say that they would have. Jets really are not THAT good. Congrats, you made it to the playoffs…but you should’ve lost that game.

The Jets have the best defense in the NFL. Yes, we really are that good. Do I think we would have beaten the Colts if they played all out? Gun to my head, if I had to put money on one team, I’d have put in on the Colts. But, is it impossible or insulting to think that the Jets could have beaten a Colts team going all out for 16-0? No, it is not. Not in the NFL, where, for example, the Saints lose to the Buccaneers in overtime.

We have a great defense and a dominant running game. We have been in EVERY game this year due to that. We were thus in the Colts game for that same reason.

When our 23 year old rookie QB doesn’t turn the ball over, we win. When he does, we lose. This has been true all year long, regardless of the quality of opponent.

The Colts game was winnable. That doesn’t mean we definitely WOULD have won if they played hard, but we definitely COULD have won if they played hard.

Ray Fuego

The jets winning against the colts?

Ha ha that thought makes me wanna gag

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Nope, still don’t believe it. You scored 29 points largely because with Painter the Colts weren’t moving the ball or just turning the ball over. On a bad day for the Colts, maybe you could eke out a lucky win. But that particular game? No way. Peyton was playing too well, and your offense was barely moving the football. You’d have been trailing 15-3 if not for a lucky kick return for a TD.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

All this being said, you guys have a very good shot to win next week. A very good shot.

Agreed. The Queen City Kitties do not scare me a whit. Even when they get Cedric Benson and Domata Peko back, we still win both lines of scrimmage. It won’t be 37-0, but it’ll still be a physical Jets victory.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Prediction: 20-10, similar to the Giants win over the Bucs last year.

Tom Zig

Whether by an inch or a mile, a win is a win. Can’t fault the Jets for going out and winning and not being the opposite of awesome like that other team that has a NY insignia (and I don’t mean the Mets).

I’m not faulting the Jets, they did nothing wrong and they played great against Cincy. But you have to be fair, they really got lucky in beating the Colts. I mean, they literally decided the game wasn’t important enough and let the Jets win.

Every year some teams pack it in at the end of the season, and other teams get to play those teams and pile up some Ws. This year it happened to be the Jets… So what?

Until every team plays the exact same schedule so there’s no difference in strength of schedule, and absolutely no teams pack it in at the end of the season so no teams get to pick up Ws against teams that aren’t playing their starters for all 4 quarters, this conversation is f*cking pointless.

The Jets did what they had to do to get into the playoffs. If fans of the Texans or any other team want to cry about something, they should cry about their team not taking care of business. The Jets winning their last two games against teams who had already clinched playoff positions doesn’t matter, all that matters is that they still have football left to play.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Very well said.

The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

“Very well said.”

Thanks, but the point of my comment was that this comment was irrelevant.

Wow, they go from Bay/Lowell/Gonzalez to Cameron/Beltre/Scutaro? Haha, that’s a very underwhelming offense. Defense improved greatly with those moves, but they won’t strike as much fear as they did last year on offense.

Ortiz batting 5th would make me all kinds of nervous if I was a BoSox fan. He’s about as likely as anyone in baseball to fall off a cliff. You can debate that Jorge Posada is just as likely, but Ortiz has actually started his decline and that’s debatable with Jorge, though some red flags appeared in 2009.

However V-Mart is playing every game (hopefully they sentimentally start Varitek a lot but I doubt it) and that’s going to be a big upgrade from Varitek for a lot of the year.

Their offense has dropped, yes but apparently the arguments I’m hearing from fans is that the Sox will still have a decent offense. They ranked 3rd in the MLB in runs so a downgrade there but a significant upgrade in pitching and defense will help them a lot. I think they even scored more runs last year than 2007 when they won the World Series. But in 2007 their defense was good and their pitching was 2nd best in the MLB.

They’ll be tougher this time around but with the acquisitions of Vazquez, Granderson and Johnson I’m not the least bit worried. Yankees have offense advantage, a draw to slight disadvantage (OR A LOT BECUZ RED SOX HAD TEH BEST POSTSEASON ROTATION WHILE TEH YANKEES HAD A BAD 1 AND THEY JUST GOT LACKEY11!) in pitching and perhaps a pull defensively.

Actually screw the last part. The Sox probably have a decent defensive advantage over the Yankees.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

IDK, we have a good defensive SS, slightly below average 2b, terriffic 1b (and last year was even a down year for him defensively), an excellent defensive CF, a LF who, as it stands right now, should be really awesome defensively, and a slightly above average RF’er. The only places we’re really hurting are Catcher (and V-mart sucks too) and 3b (and Alex should improve a bit with the hip healed). We’re not that far off defensively.

Charlie

jeter’s was okay last year, but he is not really a good defensive SS and granderson isn’t an excellent CFer, he’s just above average.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Jeter was excellent last year, and I believe that the rennaissance is real. I think he’s turned a defensive corner, because he’s Jeter and he can do that.

I wonder what Beltre should really be worth – I’m pretty sure it’s not 10 mill per year though.

Over his last 4 seasons (age 27-30) he accumulated: .269/.321/.450/.771 ops

I can see Safeco hurting his HR totals, but it shouldn’t have affected his triple slash numbers too much.

Maybe Boston is thinking the sardine can will improve his numbers… but I thought they wanted to get better on the road, and he’s already had his peak years (and I still think he’s a couple of years older than he really is). There has to be a million RHB out there who can put up those numbers in Fenway.

He is very good 3B… always has been.

I guess it all depends how long of a contract he signs for – 1 year deal would obviously make more sense than a longer commitment.

Ehh take it FWIW but FanGraphs has him pegged at 10.7 million in 2009.

vin

Hmm… I see that. I do believe there calculation is derived from WAR – which seems to be too defense-heavy for my liking.

He’s got some nice skills (glove, power), but not making outs isn’t one of them.

He’s Pedro Feliz with 14 extra walks a year. Not sure how those walks are worth an extra 6 million.

Still not sure why they didn’t pursue Holliday. He seemed to fit them perfectly.

Steve H

They did pursue Holliday and offered him Lackey’s contract.

vin

That’s right (seemed to have blocked that from my memory). I’d still rather have Holliday for 6 or 7 years @ 18 mill, than Lackey for 5 years @ 18 mill, but that’s just me.

It just seems like they can use a premier bat, and Holliday is close enough to being that. They can’t count on Mauer, Pujols or even Adrian to hit the FA market in the next couple years. They wiffed on Teixeira and now Holliday.

DP

What’s defense?

Lanny/Bo/etc’d

http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

Attn: Jets fans:

I’m rooting for your team in the playoffs. If they fuck up, I’m holding you all responsible.

We’ll beat the Bengals. And then lose to either the Colts or Chargers in a low-scoring defensive slugfest when Sanchez plays too tight to avoid a turnover and doesn’t move the ball (or on a bonehead Braylon Edwards drop).

We’re on the path, but it’s a year or two early. Sanchez needs to take a few lumps and we need to add some offensive weapons other than Jones/Greene.

http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

After this year of overhype and underachievement, the Jets need to stop fucking around and put Sanchez in the bullpen like he belongs.

There’s no point in getting some vet to give us a better chance. Say we signed Jeff Garcia or something. What then? Instead of 9-7 we go 10-6 or 11-5? We’re still probably going to lose to the Colts or Chargers in either the divisional round or the AFC Championship game. Some vet QB won’t throw 3-5 picks in a game and cause us to lose a midseason game to the Bills or something, but we still don’t really have enough vertical passing weapons to beat the super-elite teams in a January playoff game.

I’d rather scuffle and scrap to get to 9-7 with Mark Sanchez learning how to be an NFL QB the only way you can (by being one) instead of winning an extra regular season game or two with a vet who’s not really a significant upgrade, maybe advancing one more round in the playoffs, and then starting all over again with Sanchez next year.

Starting Sanchez’s development clock was the right move. Get him going, let him make mistakes, take some L’s if necessary, and then build around him. Don’t delay the inevitable. If he has enough of his wits about him from Day One to be able to make some plays from time to time, he should start from Day One.

Tom Zig

take some L’s if necessary

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

20-20 hindsight, the roll of the Sanchez dice worked out. But what if the Colts had won? What if they decided to play for real? Suddenly the Jets are out of the playoffs and Sanchez has enormous pressure on him.

Not to mention I don’t know if he’d necessarily learn less learning from a Vet like Garcia.

Which only validates that it was the correct move from jump, hindsight or no hindsight.

However, if Sanchez would have stunk up the joint (like he did) and we wouldn’t have had a great defense or a dominant running game and we would have gone 8-8, or 7-9, or 5-11 and missed the playoffs, it still would have been the right move to start him from the beginning.

Sacrificing 2009 for the rest of Sanchez’s career would have been a worthy sacrifice, if it came to it. If we would have lost another game and be home right now, it still would have been a good decision and a good season.

Mark Sanchez is a better QB for the 2009 experience, playoffs or no playoffs. And Sanchez is the Jets: as he goes, we go.

Making the playoffs is gravy. Making Sanchez better was the main course.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

I see your point, but what I’m saying is that the Jets very, very easly could’ve missed the playoffs. They didn’t, but if they did they’d be talking about this as a bad move.

They didn’t, but if they did they’d be talking about this as a bad move.

Idiots would, sure. The intelligent fans would know that signing some stopgap middling vet QB just to be able to take a non-SuperBowl worthy team to the playoffs isn’t worth a year of development for Mark Sanchez.

I’m not going to let the emotional ravings of the ignorant dissuade us from engaging in sound long-term planning.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Are you referring to a certain radio host with a fondness for diet coke?

Well, no, I wasn’t specifically, because since I don’t listen to Francesa anymore, I only hear what you people relay to me here on this forum. Thus, I haven’t heard anything he’s said about Sanchez or the Jets in particular.

In the abstract, though, Francesa’s a well known idiot, so, yeah, I’d imagine he’d be all over calling for some bonehead strategy like benching Sanchez at midseason and signing J.P. Losman or something.

Whatevs.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

As a matter of fact, he did.

Tom Zig

Does that even work?

Steve H

You’ll lose to the Colts, as my Pats will find a way to beat the Ravens. You’re damn right about the Jets being on the right track though, they can run the ball and stop the run. When they get above average QB play they are going to be a nightmare in the East. As a Pats fan, I’d actually rather them play the Colts in the 2nd round than the Chargers, who would you rather see?

The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

Of all the weird combinations of teams that some people root for, I think Yanks/Pats might be the weirdest.

Steve H

Yankees are the only non-Boston team root for. Literally, from day 1, I simply could not stand the Sox and their fans (and yes, they are the same fans as the other teams, but the attitude was different).

Reggie C.

Would you do a Osi + 2nd rounder for Bart Scott deal?

Nady Nation

I wouldn’t. Why not just hold on to Osi, give him the 2nd year to recover from ACL surgery, and draft a MLB at 15, as opposed to selling Osi at his absolute lowest value?

Honestly, I’d probably say it’s a tie between Revis and Jenkins for the title of “best defensive player on the Jets”, with Scott and Harris a notch behind them.

The fact that he’s been gone most of the year is making people forget how nasty Kris Jenkins is. Dude is a BEAST. He and Albert Haynesworth both just absorb the entirety of the middle of the line. Two best interior linemen in football.

Marc

Boston is rolling out an insane defense…if they’re smart enough to pull Ellsbury in LF and Cameron in CF they’re rolling out plus defenders at every postion.

And don’t forget the MLB.com fan voting defensive player of the year award. Some idiots on the radio were bashing UZR and quoting that “award” as reason that UZT was useless. And these people get paid to talk sports, it’s scary.

However, during the last month of the 2009 season I saw Granderson misplay a couple of balls in center during the all-important playoff stretch, and Ellsbury stole home once, so, therefore, Jacoby Ellsbury is a much, much better defensive centerfielder than Curtis Granderson.

Q.E.D.

Tom Zig

You forgot that the steal was against the G-d damn dirty Yankees. Therefore it was really like 3 steals rolled into one.

vin

At least they have bad defensive catchers. That outfield will be impressive.

Kaitlin B.

There was actually a great conversation on BBTF about UZR and what is or isn’t a meaningful sample size and how consistently useful it is. One of the conclusions was that UZR should not be taken as the holy grail of defensive stats because it’s still too inconsistent and can’t be a truly useful evaluation tool in a single year. (Which means that single year WAR might not be perfect, which means that Fangraphs’ value metric might not be perfect, which means the world might explode.)

Shorter: Scutaro and Martinez aren’t plus defenders.

Accent Shallow

Which means that single year WAR might not be perfect, which means that Fangraphs’ value metric might not be perfect, which means the world might explode.)

Yup. This is just one of the reasons why anyone touting Zobrist for 2009 AL MVP has some egg on their face.

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Why would you play Ellsbury in LF with the Green Monster there? His speed is negated since there’s so little ground to cover. If anything, you shift JD Drew over to LF and put Ellsbury in RF. Though I’m not sure if Ellsbury has the arm for RF.

vin

Just a hypothetical (I have no idea what his defensive shortcoming are)…

Like Gardner, Ellsbury may have trouble going back on balls hit over his head. If that’s the case, then his speed may play well in LF at Fenway. Short wall means he doesn’t have to go back as far on balls over his head, and he can play to his strengths of going side to side and charging balls.

Just blindly tossing it out there.

Accent Shallow

Well, JD Drew isn’t exactly Bobby Abreu v.2008. He’s definitely a solid RF (well above average if you believe UZR.) If I’m the Sox, I don’t bump Drew for anyone, other than giving him enough days off that he can stay healthy.

Marc

“Beltre 1 yr. Deal for $9m with player option for $5m. Physical coming.”

Can’t complain with that deal for Boston…

Reggie C.

If Beltre can’t slug .400 in Fenway, that $5 MM is going to look really satisfying.

Steve H

Agreed. It doesn’t put a crimp in possibly getting A-Gonz in the future. Had they signed Beltre for 3 or 4 years, they would have given up their pursuit. Even if Beltre picks up the option, he’d be extremely tradeable at 1/$5 mil.

jackson

Red Sox are buying every player!

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Well, the difference between the Yanks and teams like the Sox is the Yanks can eat their mistakes.

Oh wait, Mike Lowell. Never mind.

Steve H

Oh wait, Edgar Renteria. Never mind.
Oh wait, Julio Lugo. Never mind.

They also ate the Marlins mistake when they got Lowell the 1st time (and then he found the fountain of HGH).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WppcSY4SsSk barry

This kind of speculation is pointless.

Evilest Empire

Solid pickup. I guess I’d prefer Beltre’s glove to Lowell’s bat but I don’t see it as a huge upgrade or anything like that.

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

If they can’t dump Lowell, maybe they can try him out in LF? He can also DH against tough lefties, who Big Papi can’t hit anymore now that he’s off the boli-boli.

Evilest Empire

Man, so Lowell has become either trade bait for a guy the Red Sox would use as an (overpaid) utility schlub, or a DH caddy for Papi. Ouch.

Tom Zig

Lowell in LF sounds like a recipe for disaster

JGS

remember Youk in left field? oh man that was fun to watch

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

On the road, yes. At Fenway? Not so much.

chriskeo

Recently I just spoke with a Red Sox fan that I know, he was telling me how the Red Sox are better because they have more homegrown talent. The first example he gives me is Josh Beckett…

I really did not know how to take him seriously about pro baseball after this.

Steve H

That’s horrible. I love when they, more regularly, say Dice-K.

Kaitlin B.

There’s a choice of Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jon Lester and he picks…Josh Beckett.

Luis Castillo for Mike Lowell?
If the Mets want to go with the crappiest defensive team while trying to have the best offense with as of now shitty starting pitching as a whole like I don’t know the Yankees from 2005-2008 be my guest Omar.

http://fmylife.com JobaJr

No way this gets done. Omar wants to keep his Latin players, not trade them.

He did sign Jason Bay. The whitest white guy out there. He might be whiter than Craig Counsell.

Ray Fuego

He only did that to calm down his critics..

Those criticizing his ability to form a good team (although this mets team still sucks) & those criticizing his preference for hispanic player

Steve H

There’s an asterisk there though, he is Canadian.

Eirias

That makes him whiter.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WppcSY4SsSk barry

Jason Bay makes Bryant Gumble look like Malcom X.

Chappelle/d

JGS

what the hell would the Red Sox do with Castillo? $6M utility man?

Accent Shallow

Nope, he can play 2B and 1B. He can’t play SS or 3B, and he has two years left on his deal. Pretty useless, unless you’re a team that can use a below average 2B. i.e. a team that doesn’t employ Dustin Pedroia.

Danilo Gallinari is rapidly eliminating my wish to go back in time and draft Eric Gordon instead. I’m warming.

What’s crazy is that Nate Robinson is actually playing himself back into a viable trade candidate. My mind is blown.

Steve H

Danilo Gallinari and Greg Oden were 2 of my last 3 picks in fantasy this year. I was absolutely dominating early, before Oden inevitably got hurt (he’s really 45, right?), but Gallo is still bringing it for me.

Nady Nation

E-City seems like a totally untradeable commodity at this point, but Jeffries certainly has some value for a contender in need of a defensive role player off the bench. As much as I’d enjoy making the playoffs, priority #1 should still be to move JJ. We can always use Curry as an expiring this summer in a sign and trade for Lebron’s wingman.

Hughesus Cristo

Wayyyyyy too much Jets talk on a Yankees blog. Not cool. Giants or nothing.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Dude I’m a Giants fan, but you’re only opening up a hornet’s nest pposting this. Now all the Jets fans are gonna start boasting about being better than the G-men.

The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

“Dude I’m a Giants fan, but you’re only opening up a hornet’s nest pposting this in multiple threads.”

Hughesus Cristo – The Giants are done, the Jets are still relevant. If the roles were reversed, there’d be plenty of Giants talk and not as much Jets talk. But such is life in early 2010, so get over it.

Nady Nation

Seriously. And also, if you read through the comments on this thread, there is plenty of Giants talk. It just happens to be about how to retool the team for 2010 instead of preparing for the playoffs.

The geographical distributions of the two fanbases are roughly equal, and also MIGHT have something to do with the fact that (and why) the Giants played in YS and the Jets in Shea. Making sense yet? No. Sucks for you.

The Jets haven’t played in Shea for like 25+ years. Ditto the Giants and Yankee Stadium. Old news.

For most of the sports-watching lifetimes of this generation, the Jets and Giants have had the same home. That situation is going to continue going forward.

Furthermore, a geographic difference between Queens and the Bronx and Jersey is pretty negligible. There’s small loci of allegiances in the neighborhoods completely surrounding the stadiums of the Yankees and Mets, but the football teams don’t have that relationship anymore.

There’s more Giants or Jets “neighborhoods”. They’re both citywide teams. The only reason there’s generally more Giants fans than Jets fans is for the same reason there’s more Yankees fans than Mets fans:

A) The Giants are older and thus have a longer traditional fanbase to build on
B) The Giants have won more and have thus picked up more casual fans along the way

Your geographic argument might have held sway during the Kennedy or Johnson or Nixon administrations. Not anymore.

Hughesus Cristo

The geographic/cultural differences between Queens and Bronx are minimal? I’m starting to think you’re a fictional character hired by RAB to spice up the comments sections. And I didn’t say playing in the stadiums “created” fans, I’m saying the teams went to those locations BECAUSE of who their fans were/where they were located.

Sox have serious health questions with Beckett, Lackey and Dice-K. Yanks really don’t have any major health concerns.

Yanks should have a bit more depth in Hughes/Gaudin/Aceves/Mitre as opposed to Wakefield/Tazawa/Boof Bonser/??.

If you go game by game in a series, Sox would have an edge more often than not. That’s the one edge I see them having, in a short series.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Good thing we don’t face them in Round 1.

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Even in the ALCS they’ll have the edge.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

IDK about that. If the Sox roll the dice and go with the three man rotation the Yankees can do the same thing if they want to, and then if it goes to game 7 have a well rested Vasquez against a weary anybody else, or a short-rested CC. Whatever they prefer.

Question: Is Buchholz over Wakefield a definite? I mean, it’s the smart move and what you and I would do, but are the Sox really removing Wake from the rotation? I wouldn’t be shocked to see them give him the 5th starter spot and keep Clay in AAA or move him to the bullpen.

They love the guy, they love his rubber arm, they love the “different look” he provides, and he was on a roll last year (pre-injury). He may have the inside track on the last rotation spot.

Frankly, with the way they bitch about Matsuzaka’s training regimen, he may be the one on the outside looking in. Wakefield might be the FOURTH starter and Dice-K and Buchholz might be the two in the spring competition for the rotation spot.

Just throwing that out there…

Mattingly’s Love Child

The Sox have been pretty good about not being too sentimental about players. I doubt they use Wakefield unless they need to. Of course if Dice-K is still a train wreck, then they will continue to use Wake.

JGS

I’m pretty sure that two year contract to Wakefield was to get him the franchise win record, whereupon he would retire. He is 17 short of that now, but would need to actually make the starts to get the wins

http://theyankeeu.com Moshe Mandel

I think it is very, very close. I’d say in a playoff series where both clubs throw 4 guys, I take CC over whoever is the #1 for Boston, and Pettitte over whoever is #4 for Boston, with Boston taking the middle two matchups. But all of those edges are very, very close. I just cannot see a huge difference between the two rotations, although the Yankees do seem to be a bit younger and in better health, but that can change quickly for guys like Burnett and Pettitte.

Mattingly’s Love Child

I’d agree with you. Except the younger/healthier comment. CC/Beckett are essentially the same. Burnett is older/bigger health risk than Lester. Vasquez is older/less health risk than Lackey. And Pettite is older/bigger health risk than either Dice-K or Bucholtz.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Less health risk than Dice-k? IDK about that.

Mattingly’s Love Child

Dice-K wasn’t hurt (at least thats my opinion) last year. He was out because he was a shitshow. There is no guarantee he won’t be the same again this year.

http://theyankeeu.com Moshe Mandel

You are right about the age thing, but not about the health thing. Dice-K, Lackey, and Beckett are all health risks, as are Burnett and Pettitte. That seems to be 3 for Boston, 2 for NY. From the two clubs, the only “locks” for 200IP are CC, Vazquez, and Lester.

Mattingly’s Love Child

Dice-K won’t make it to 200IP because he sucks.

Nonethless, both rotations are pretty equal. The Yankees lineup takes them over the top.

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Yeah, statistically it’s a dead heat overall, that’s why I wanted to go game by game. The Yanks have a better lineup as of right now, that could change if the Sox land A-Gon mid season. I also like the Yank bullpen with one of Joba/Hughes in the pen. But a Yanks-Sox ALCS shapes up to be a real 7 game dogfight.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Disagree. If the Sox land A-Gon our lineup’s STILL better.

http://theyankeeu.com Moshe Mandel

Agreed. With Baltimore improving and Tampa still dangerous, it should be a thrilling year.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Eh, Baltimore still won’t be relevant till next yr. This year will be a really epic battle between the Yanks and Sox.

Josh Beckett from 2007, maybe that guy is even with CC Sabathia. The Josh Beckett who lives and breathes and walks the earth today, at this very moment, on January 4th, 2010? That guy is not as good as CC Sabathia.

What you’ve just shown is that they’re the same, and that Beckett had an off year in 08. Assuming both are healthy (big assumption) it’s a wash.

http://theyankeeu.com Moshe Mandel

He also had an off year in 06. It’s close, but CC is the better pitcher, as well as the better bet to stay healthy.

Accent Shallow

Disagree. Health is a skill, and Beckett has yet to demonstrate that, while Sabathia has been a horse. Of course, pitchers are pitchers, past performance is no guarantee of future results, etc etc.

That’s without getting into the DIPS-type stats, which distinctly favor Sabathia — they have similar K-rates, similar K/BB ratios, but Sabathia has give up less home runs (57 v. 60) in 140 more innings. Beckett is a nice pitcher, who has no-hit stuff when he’s on, but he is massively overrated.

If Joba has a setback, he’s the 5th starter. If he maintains his current level of production, minus the wall he hit in August when he was gassed, he’s just as good as anything in the back end of ANYONE’S rotation.

The Joba Chamberlain who was a starting pitcher from in August and September of 2009 was not good.

In all of his big league starts before that last two months of last year, he was quite dominant. Saying that as long as he doesn’t have a setback, he could pitch at Lackey’s level or better isn’t all that farfetched.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

See Nostra-Artist.

Steve H

If Joba sustains over a full season, which isn’t unreasonable as he is still young and growing as a pitcher, he obviously can equal Lackey. It’s an “if”, but really not a ridiculously huge one. Thru 20 starts (and 110 innings), Joba’s era was 3.58 (and I know there are better stats), Lackey’s era for the season was 3.83 after a 3.75 in 2008.

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Let Joba do it for one full season before we compare him to someone who’s done it for 8 years.

Steve H

I agree Lackey is much more of a sure thing, but we’re not saying Sidney Ponson is all of the sudden going to be as good as John Lackey, we’re saying a guy who has all of the tools, has had success, and is finally going to have his restrictions let go has the ability to outperform John Lackey in 2009. It’s possible, and not a 1,000,000 to 1 shot.

The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

I agree with Steve H, and I’d add that we’re talking about the future, not the previous 8 years. Lackey may have been great 8 years ago, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be better in 2010 and beyond.

In a playoff series, sure. We may be more susceptible to Lefties with Grandy/Gardner in the lineup, plus turning Tex, Posada and Swish around at Yankee Stadium. I could see them pitching Lester 3X if the series starts at YS3.

JGS

Jeter, Tex, and A-rod hit a combined .314/.399/.537/.936 against lefties for their whole careers and unless I’m mistaken, the Yankees had the best record in baseball against lefties by a large margin. We kill left handed pitching

SLG a bit less, but BABIP is almost 60 points higher and he walks more. He owns lefties.

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Last year we killed Lefties. Matsui and Damon always fared well. Also, you always want to throw Lefties at YS3 for obvious reasons. Its the specific over the general.

JGS

Matsui and Damon OPS .824 and .749 against lefties. Nick Johnson’s (.868) is decently better than either of them. Granderson of course is significantly worse, but the overall team dropoff won’t be that significant

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Facing a tough lefty like Lester, I think Granderson and Gardner will be useless. It’s one thing to hit Lefties, it’s another to hit Jon Lester.

JGS

probably true, but Lester is really the only non-Yankee top tier southpaw in the AL East. Worry about Lester in the ALCS

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Isn’t that what were doing? Maybe you meant over the full season, but I was talking short series, as in playoffs.

JGS

by next October, we will be talking about how Granderson kills lefties 1994 Paul O’Neill style (1.011 OPS that year after putting up mostly Grandersonian numbers against lefties his whole career)

/wishing

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Ya never know. That’s what makes this stuff fun.

http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

I’d call it…

Lester = CC
Beckett > AJ
Lackey > Andy
Dice-K < Javy
Buchholz = Joba
Of the course the Yanks have a better bullpen and a devastating lineup. I can't wait to see Dice-K use 30 pitches to navigate through Jeter/NJ/Tex/A-Rod each time through the order.

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Lester = CC
Beckett > AJ
Lackey > Andy
Dice-K < Javy

That’s fair, and I don’t disagree. But short series you’re pitching your top 4, so we agree it’s edge Red Sox in the rotation.

Steve H

Lester may equal CC for 6 innings, but CC will go longer, and has had proven success well past 100 pitches. That’s where a ton of CC’s value comes from, he is much more likely to deliver the ball directly to Mo than Lester is to Papsmear.

Wow. Could you make that any more confusing? I think i’d need abut 3 drinks to get that run on equation.

Evilest Empire

Oh and here’s my favorite useless fact of the off season:

Javier Vazquez, AJ Burnett, and John Lackey all have the same exact career FIP: 3.83. I shit you not.

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

Yeah, but Javy’s badly underperformed his FIP over the course of his career. He’s done it so often, it’s not just luck or bad defense. He’s been better recently, so we have to hope he’s matured as a pitcher.

http://yanksdraftsandprospects.blogspot.com/ Jake H

It’s very close. I do think that the Yanks have1 major advantage in 1 area and that is health.

http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

I agree completely. I seriously doubt the Sox staff hits October intact, while I’ll be surprised if the Yankee staff doesn’t. Health is our trump card.

Evilest Empire

I also agree. And while we’re focusing on rotation vs rotation in this convo, it seems worth noting regarding BoSox health that they’re really going to be leaning on Papi in that #5 spot in the lineup.

Out of Papi/Drew/Cameron/Beltre/Scutaro, you’ve got a shitload of “ifs” and “hopefullys” to worry about it.

I think he shaved 11 or 12 years off the team by replacing Damon/Matsui with Granderson/Johnson.

pollo

This year fucking blows for the Jets. It sucks knowing we’re going to obviously plow through the Bengals only to get annihilated by Air Rivers. VJack’s getting shut down, but Malcolm Floyd, ‘Tony etc are going to absolutely destroy us.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

Dude, that makes no sense.

Evilest Empire

Sheesh, way to keep a good attitude about them making it into the playoffs while surviving Sanchez’ growing pains. And god forbid they actually win a playoff game. You make it sound like they’d have been better off letting the Texans play next Saturday.

Jets are a fucking crazy team, man. And they’re poised to be very good next year. I’m excited.

http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

If you told me at the beginning of the season that the Jets would make the playoffs, I’d have said you were full of shit. This year fucking rocks for the Jets.

Nady Nation

Yea, making the playoffs is awful.

Steve H

Agreed. Next year I hope they go 2-14 so there’s no fear of getting destroyed in the playoffs. Then please take Vernon Gholston’s brother with the top pick. That’d be much better.

Perhaps. Losing in the divisional round would suck, in a vacuum. When looked at in totality, it’s actually quite impressive. Our 23 year old rookie QB threw 20 interceptions this year. Our season should probably be over already, but it’s not.

Perspective FTW.

Steve H

It’s (almost) like the Royals making the playoffs this year only to be destroyed by the Yankees in the 1st round. Gee, I bet Royals fans would really bitch about that.

Doug

With the Sox’ signing of Beltre, other than a possible replacement for Gardner in left for the good guys, both teams seem just about set. Thought it’d be interesting to see how the lineups stack up.

Using last year’s stats and a projected lineup of:

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Martinez
Youkilis
Ortiz
Cameron
Drew
Beltre
Scuturo

the lineup analyzer (which uses OBP and SLG for those not familiar with it) has the Sox scoring 5.732 runs per game

And the Yanks, with a projected lineup of:

Jeter
Johnson
Tex
ARod
Posada
Granderson
Swisher
Cano
Gardner

are projected to score 6.130 runs per game.

With the pitching staffs arguably pretty even, a lineup scoring almost a half-run more will be very nice!!!!

Their defense will really help their pitching. I mean they’re jumping from below-average to bad defense all the way to the top defensive teams. Hopefully the more runs the Yankees score is greater than the ones the Sox prevent but still it’s going to be close.

By the way out of curiosity do you know how OBP and SLG are weighted in the analyzer?

Doug

i believe it varies by lineup position. here’s the main article discussing it:

Thanks, that was an interesting read. I did not think it would vary a lot based on lineup position.

Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

We prevent lots of runs too.

Evilest Empire

Whenever Gardner is playing defense, the Yankee’s outfield is going to be a plus-UZR orgy.

Evilest Empire

You know what team got screwed over the most this off season? THE TEXAS RANGERS. The Rangers had a fighting chance at the wildcard in September and are benefiting from a lot of young talent. Then fuckin’ god damn if Seattle and Boston don’t majorly upgrade their ball clubs while The Rangers have to basically twiddle their thumbs since their ownership is in transition. I just don’t see them competing as closely this year, not with Seattle ready to fuck shit up and the wildcard probably being a battle between BOS and NYY. Plus its not like the Angels are suddenly irrelevant. If they had been able to do a big move – like sign Lackey or trade for Cliff Lee – I’d have called them the favorites in the AL West. As someone who lived in Dallas for 10 years, it always confused me that the Rangers haven’t upped pay roll more. If they started investing in their product more and began to win on a consistent basis, Texas would go crazy over the Rangers, this is such a sports-crazy state. I like what they’re doing organizationally, 2010 could’ve been a good year for them. Maybe it still will be.

/rant

Accent Shallow

Branching off from the massive Sox v. Yankees pitching discussion above: the big wild card in comparing the two rotations is young Mr. Chamberlain. Is he going to pitch like he did for most of ’09, or are we going to see the starter he was in ’08? Because Joba v.2008 is probably the best pitcher in either rotation, while Joba v.2009 (up until August, anyway) is merely a 4th/5th starter.

Ordinarily, I’d expect more of ’09, but his velocity has been down post-shoulder injury, and David Cone speculated that it may take significant time (i.e. until 2010) for that shoulder strength to return.

(As for Phil Hughes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him better v.2009 Joba, but I don’t think he has it in him to approach v.2008 Joba)

Evilest Empire

I agree with this, but in fairness to Boston, Buccholz is their X factor as well. However, the Yankees have the luxury of having TWO young, high upside starters, and even if only one of them can start for the entire season, its a mega-advantage.

I’ll also go ahead and say that Joba is the likeliest of the 3 to breakout and fuck shit up 24/7, since he’s got the most experience by far and as good of pure stuff when 100% as any of ’em.

Accent Shallow

I don’t buy Buchholz at all (he’s been quite homer-prone in ~200 MLB innings, there are questions about his stuff translating, he turns 26 during this coming season), but some of that has to be homerism on my part. He has comparable MiL stats to Phil Hughes, FWIW (well, H/9 wise, and K and BB rates. Hughes has half the home run rate, although that’s in ~100 less IP. Also, I’m not going to compare park factors, although Buchholz didn’t have Trenton as a home park).

That’s better than a 4/5. That’s more like a 3/4. In fact, the only think keeping that from being a 2/3 is the lack of pitching economy.

“5th starters” don’t have sub 4.00 ERA’s in the AL East.

Accent Shallow

But his component stats don’t necessarily support his sub-4.00 ERA. A .347 OBP is >league average, and his K/BB ratio was less than 2. He wasn’t limiting homers, either — 13 in 110 innings.

Regardless, we can quibble over whether he was a 3/4/5 all day, but the point is that he wasn’t nearly as good (as a starter) as in 2008. That’s not just results-wise, that’s also stuff-wise, which gives me some confidence that Joba’s 2008 wasn’t just a fluke.

1.) Is there a QB with a howitzer arm? If there is, take him, even if he A) can’t read defenses or B) can’t stop eating. If not, proceed to Step 2.
2.) Is there a defensive back who’s very fast? If there is, take him, even if A) he can’t actually cover anyone or B) nobody’s ever heard of him and he’s not on anyone’s draft board or listed in their top 200 players. If not, proceed to Step 3.
3.) Is there a wide receiver who’s very fast? If there is, take him, even if he can’t actually catch the ball. If not, proceed to Step 4.
4.) Is there a passrusher who’s very fast? If there is, take him, even if he can’t actually rush the passer. If not, proceed to Step 5.
5.) There’s nobody worth taking in this draft. Trade your first rounder to someone else for one of their aging, or marginal, or aging AND marginal players. With all remaining draft picks, select fat offensive lineman who can’t block people. Since there weren’t any good QB’s, DB’s, WR’s, or DE’s available, sign three or four aging or marginal or aging AND marginal free agents from these categories to 7yr/60M deals that will lock up all available cap space. Proceed to Step 6.
6.) Call up Daryle Lamonica and go shopping for a snazzy new windbreaker. Those things never go out of style. If Daryle Lamonica is dead, call Matt Millen and Howie Long. If they refuse to join you in your shopping trip, threaten to buy millions of dollars worth of primetime commercials to run 30-second spots of this:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eEF8zplJY8
7.) Get another blood transfusion. Take a nap. When you wake up, sue someone over some miscellaneous bullshit related to some arcane territorial broadcast rights you think you’re owed from the AFL-NFL merger that happened 40 years ago.
8.) Fire your head coach. Hire a new one. Sign him to a lucrative extension after a few days. Fire him. Give Art Shell a call.

[end of list]

http://cache.boston.com/multimedia/sports/bigshots/110509/01.jpg Drew

Yeah I’m assuming we’ll go with JC but it’s not my first choice.. Unfortunately, we really need a QB.

If it was up to me I’d probably trade down, get an extra pick and roll the dice on Brennan.

Eh, if my option is pick JC 4th overall, with all that entails. Or trying out some practice squad guys or vets and gain a relatively high pick, I’d go with option B.

I was bummed Colt needed hip surgery this year. I really wanted to see what he could do on the practice squad.

Hughesus Cristo

I’m an ND fan and I watch every game (as painful as it often is). I really don’t think Clausen has it. ND has had INSANE receivers, and Clausen just slings it up to Tate/Floyd/Rudolph and hopes one of them can make a play. He has good measurables, but he consistently fell apart in big spots, is bad at dealing with defensive pressure, and doesn’t seem to have a great head for the position. Football teams with a crapload of close losses need to look right behind the center. All I can say is… good luck with that.

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The Gleyber Torres Watch

Gleyber's season is over. He suffered a torn left (non-throwing) elbow ligament on a play at the plate on June 17th and had Tommy John surgery on June 21st. He is expected to be ready in time for Spring Training 2018. The Prospect Watch Curse strikes again!