Biiwii - silver's going to collapse! OMG! Aaaugh! Aaaugh! Thanks Gary, you just drove me to cash. Though to be fair, I've seen a bunch of my topped-out stocks start to fall back down (though admittedly in the case of PLG and SVL it was because of this fucking fad of October financings), and GT's $HUI 500 support level was broken, so I'm happy to get more cash and reposition for when the miners finish a little October correction. Which I think I might see. Already have a shopping list for when it comes.

Higher opens are also being faded, guys are talking about "the typical mid-morning sell-off," without realizing what a classic sign that is of a tired tape that's run out of firepower.

And yet there's all this bullish news:

WSJ Marketbeat - dollar death cross may presage bull market for stocks. But of course, first we have to see stocks go bullish. And also, you gotta wait to make sure that the weak US dollar proves its correlation to stronger stocks - cos things might be different this time.

WaPo - US exporters are doing better than you think. With caveats - what and corn were down obviously (because the rest of the world didn't have a drought, just the US did), and exports got creamed as the European recession deepened.

FT Alpoville - the coming US housing boom. Roger Altman notes that US construction employment is down to a 1990s level, and the housing bubble didn't create an inventory bubble, only a price bubble. So, when housing gets back on its own two feet, it'll provide a strong support to the US economy.

FT Alphaville - Portugal getting better. Maybe people will stop freaking out about Spain and Italy and Greece and Cyprus and Slovenia when they see yet another country coming out from a collapse.

FT Beyond Brics - Poland realizes austerity is bullshit. Seriously, one thing those fucking cunt Germans hate is being shown up by Polaks. So when Poland's stimulus fires up their domestic economy, it'll be the end of this austerity bullshit in Europe.

FT Alphaville - Citibank accepts the chances of Greek exit are down. And as far as I'm concerned, the chances are zero, since if Greece left the Euro (1) Germany wouldn't get paid for all the tanks and subs they just sold to Greece, and (2) Germans would no longer be able to buy Greek seaside villas. Give the idiots at Citi time to figure it out: these guys learn "economics" at school, not "political economics", so they have no clue about the political drivers of anything.

NY Times - Krugman says "I told you so". As he notes, austerity has driven the world back into the clutches of recession. Maybe this is bearish - after all, gloating by Krugman will just push the politicians back into the warm embrace of dictator-loving fascists like Hayek and Mises.

FT Beyond Brics - rich people in China, watch out. Long term this'd be bullish for China, since a reduction in corruption would mean more capital being assigned to productive endeavours and less going into the pockets of political thieves. And I find it telling that Chinese bloggers are even allowed to post about corruption - with the State's power over all media, this must mean that the Chinese party leadership must want the corruption stopped.

Oh, and by the way - the bit in that story about watches is funny. See, a few months ago the story came out that luxury watch stores in Hong Kong couldn't move inventory anymore; Westerners interpreted that as a sign of the Chinese economy collapsing, but all it really showed was that the ultra-rich no longer consider it wise to use luxury items as conspicuous status symbols.

That's why I was more interested in the bullish holiday week travel figures, and less on last week's reports of gloom and despair in Hong Kong and Macau. See, the rich (either in China or here) don't contribute a fucking thing to the economy: except of course for corruption, graft, and the end of democracy. It's the working class who need to benefit, in order for an economy to grow.

So in sum?

When I add up all the news above, I can accept the TA (and historical) case for a correction, but still think the medium trend is up.

So I'll take a small break from trading, protect my wins and my capital, and reposition for a big thrust in a couple weeks!

So, y'all know there are some posts on ZeroHedge that are especially ripe for mocking: the repetitive libertopian Randroid screeds.

Well, there was one on ZH today, and I've always liked Bayesian linguistic analysis, I thought "wouldn't it be neat to do a word cloud on it?" And interestingly, there seems to be a word cloud site on the net that works without using Java on your own computer.

So here's a link to the article, and here's the things this guy considers so important that he's got to repeat the words over and over again:

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Beyond Brics - Carlos Slim is jealous of Eike Batista, so now he wants to muscle in on gold too! Seriously, guys - when the biggest most successful new billionaires in the world start buying up all the gold for themselves? That looks a bit bullish to me. You?

On the other hand, SND is a streamer, and people seem to like those, and they're directly related to SSL who've been going up for a long time; maybe some SSL stockholders will want to jump horses in mid-race?

On the other hand, one of their streams is a shitty natural gas stream.

On the other hand, the bankrupt companies whose assets SND would seize? They're coal properties.

So, why not risk a bit on a one cent warrant? I'm up $17K this month, with more profit to come later on, so why not try to leverage some of that win into even bigger win?

This is not investment advice. Seriously, please don't do what I just did. I'm probably a moron for doing this. I'm only trying to fit in with all the other people who invest with Porter Stansberry and Marin Katusa.

I came across something somewhere (Bespoke probably) that noted the markets have now become less correlated.

1) that's usually bullish, and 2) that means there's less of this stampeding fear we saw over the past 2 years, and 3) it means you shouldn't automatically assume that the miners will collapse just cos/if the S&P 500 is going down, or the materials sector (eg Alcoa) is going down, or world trade oriented sectors like the $SOX is going down, or China is going down.

More succintly, this isn't last year's playing field, so don't go applying last year's analysis unthinkingly.

I.e., there won't necessarily be a strong GSR swing on a risk-off, nor on a JNK:LQD swing, nor on an S&P dive.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

As stated here often as of late, all reports are that physical demand in London remains robust, regardless of dips or rallies in paper price

Gold priced in euro and Swissie just made new all-time highs last week and have been preceding gold priced in dollars by about 4-6 weeks.

(loony stuff deleted)

RSI levels in both gold and silver have worked off excesses built up during the 4-week rally from mid-August to mid-September.

The silver smash of 5/11 and the gold smash of 9/11 both came during periods of ending or non-existent QE. The Fed just announced QE∞ last month and those $ are just beginning to slosh around. Give it time. Additionally, QE∞ only adds to and increases global demand to exchange fiat for hard assets.

So take that for what it's worth. It's entirely possible he could be right on a couple things once in a while, at the times when he turns his back on fantasy and participates a bit in reality.

All the time I see talk about JPM's short position, JPM's socalled
troubles with it at higher silver prices, JPM 'caught pants down' and
more alike.
I think it's time for an explanation as why this doesn't make sense.
JP Morgan is a BULLION BANK. A company that SELLS silver. It resides on the SUPPLY side of the silver market.

The supply side, the side that SELLS silver remember, is named
'commercial hedgers' for a reason, their short contracts are a hedge, so
that if the price drops, they get compensated for by the short
positions. The silver they sell is their equivalent for 'long
positions'. If the price rises, they get more dollars from the silver
they sell, and they throttle their income by changing their futures
position. They increased their amount shorts in the uptrend, simply
because the upwards price risk becomes smaller with the uptrend
continuing, and they decrease their amount shorts in a downtrend,
because the downwards price risk becomes smaller at lower prices.

This entire focus on a short position, is nothing but misleading. This
happens on all markets, not just silvers. Very likely those that try to
mislead try to shift away the 'blame' for a price collapse (in reality
it's them dumping for shorter term profit, in terms of purchasing
power). So you're right, the manipulation is sickening, but don't blame
the supply side of a market for their hedging activities. If you were a
silver dealer, you'd hedge yourself too when the price fluctuates alot
and big.

So, JPM actually benefits from the higher price (since they sell silver)
and they increase their total short position as a hedge, because the
higher the price goes, the more the downside risk becomes, being the
demand side grabbing profit. When they see the demand dropping, they
decrease their total short position. Look at next COT data, the
Producer/* class is the real supply side (Swap Dealers are not real
suppliers)

25/09/2012 51659 $33.70-$34.45-$33.90
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 9204 Short 52944=43740 short>INCREASED
Swap Dealer Long 15210 Short 23129
Large Traders Long 35613 Short 4259
Other Reportables Long 9165 Short 6509
Small Traders Long 29126 Short 11477

18/09/2012 50474 $34-$35.1-$34.63
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 9256 Short 51855=42599 short>DECREASED
Swap Dealer Long 13775 Short 21650
Large Traders Long 31582 Short 3990
Other Reportables Long 11623 Short 6660
Small Traders Long 27966 Short 10047

11/09/2012 47272 $33.35-$33.8-$33.62
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 12129 Short 64473=52344 short>INCREASED
Swap Dealer Long 15041 Short 9969
Large Traders Long 30731 Short 3976
Other Reportables Long 10640 Short 5913
Small Traders Long 25261 Short 9471

04/09/2012 44920 $31.95-$32.4-$32.13
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 13030 Short 63435=50405 short>INCREASED
Swap Dealer Long 15315 Short 9830
Large Traders Long 30560 Short 4364
Other Reportables Long 11723 Short 5489
Small Traders Long 23408 Short 10918

28/08/2012 38574 $30.55-$31-$30.83
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 15788 Short 60627=44839 short>INCREASED
Swap Dealer Long 15390 Short 9125
Large Traders Long 29366 Short 5052
Other Reportables Long 10342 Short 6018
Small Traders Long 21898 Short 11962

21/08/2012 32477 $30.25-$30.82-$30.82
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16571 Short 58895=42324 short>INCREASED
Swap Dealer Long 18264 Short 8417
Large Traders Long 26075 Short 9420
Other Reportables Long 9571 Short 5026
Small Traders Long 24430 Short 13153

14/08/2012 23402 $27.65-$28-$27.82
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 19168 Short 56328=37160 short
Swap Dealer Long 20559 Short 6801
Large Traders Long 23461 Short 12907
Other Reportables Long 8856 Short 3823
Small Traders Long 21754 Short 13939

See how they increased their short position during the price uptrend?
Notice the reversal on 18 september at spot price $34.63
There, the uptrend stalled and profit was grabbed, price down, and the SUPPLY side decreased their total short position.
This happens on all markets, in some cases (alike COPPER futures) the
commercial hedgers frequently are net LONG instead of SHORT. And why?
Simple: if the demand side (ex large speculators) generally bet on LOWER
prices (thus net short), the commercial hedgers have to inverse they
hedging strategy, being taking a total net long position. So what the
commercial hedgers/the supply side does, is as said: hedging themselves
against consequences of speculation.

So, if you blame a bullion bank (JP Morgan in this case) for having such
a large short position, you are actually blaming a consequence instead
of a cause, you missed that this implies that on the demand side of the
market, there is a large long position, and those are the speculators,
hunting for profit, by buying silver shorter term to dump later on for
profit.

Another thing worthwhile to add: the commercial hedgers are usually the
best informed people on the market. They are the supply side, they know
better than anyone the market situation. So instead of blaming them, you
should look at what they do, it has a very high chance of telling you
what comes next.

So yes, silver might collapse horribly. Or it might not. It depends on the market, and supply & demand.

He fails to sufficiently rub it in other newsletter writers' faces that he's strongly outperformed the GDX so far this year.

Other than that, I disagree with him on macroeconomics, and doubt we'll see the highs in gold and the miners that he predicts. Then again, if he proves me wrong I make more money, and that's fine by me.

Then he really loves Corvus Gold,

which is an exploration company that has performed fantastically. Corvus has joint-ventured its projects in Alaska and focused most of its resources on its North Bullfrog project in Nevada. Not only does North Bullfrog have substantial exploration potential, but also Corvus has already outlined a deposit there and put out a preliminary economic assessment (PEA). The PEA showed that the project would be extremely economic, even at lower gold prices, with payback at about two years, even on a $1,250/oz gold price.

It also has fantastic exploration potential. Part of the deposit is on privately owned land, which means it can be permitted much faster and get into production much more quickly. Potential production is targeted for 2014. Corvus has tremendous management, which has done everything right to this point. Even though the stock is already up over 100% since we first recommended it, I still believe it has substantial potential from here. Any exploration success in the future, which is a possibility, would be a major catalyst for Corvus' shares.

Which is nice cos I got $30K there so I'll be happy to see a pop from the interview.

Lovelock, Nevada – A stone's throw away from Coeur d'Alene Mines'
(NYSE:CDE) fabled Rochester Mine, a brief drive out of Lovelock, Nevada,
upstart Liberty Silver (TSX:LSL) is girding up for production at its
Trinity silver mine, a high-volume, low-grade open pit silver deposit
originally drilled and developed by U.S. Borax.

Liberty Silver has moved aggressively into the silver market, and
largely under the radar, into the stock market as well. The company
leap-frogged from the U.S. pink sheets to a full-on listing on the
Toronto Stock Exchange, without passing Go, the NASDAQ, or the TSX
Venture exchange – largely on the resumes of its board of directors, and
on the merits of the property.

Insiders own about 30 percent of Liberty's common shares – what you want to see – management with a lot of skin in the game.

Most recently – in August - Liberty acquired its neighbour, the
100-acre Hi Ho silver prospect from Primus Resources, effectively
doubling its land position at Trinity, and - based upon historical
drilling data, doubling its silver-equivalent resources and reserves.

That acquisition, along with the drilling, should substantially satisfy
Liberty's 70 percent earn-in on the Trinity property as per agreement
with owner Renaissance Gold (TSX-V:REN). Now it will be up to REN to
match LSL's current and future expenditures at Trinity, or be diluted
out.

Liberty retained Denver-based global mining consultant
SRK Consulting to update historical drilling data on the Trinity and Hi
Ho properties to Canadian National Instrument 43-101 compliance. Mine
construction planning and an additional 20 holes of reverse-circulation
drilling were conducted this year with an eye toward putting the
open-pit, heap-leach property back into production within the next 18
months.

A tour of the Trinity/Hi Ho property
quickly unveils a very conventional open-pit, heap-leach operation.
Beneficiated silver-oxide material is of course on surface, which is the
easiest to heap-leach, and was what Borax mined for a year before
silver prices collapsed in the late 1980s. Beneath this however, are
sulfide-bearing ores and vein structures which could well yield higher
per-ton values than expected at surface, according to drilling data from
Liberty and the historical information Borax and Newmont developed.
Step-out drilling results have been as good as those within the existing
pit project area.

SRK's Reno, Nevada office, which is in
charge of working up final NI 43-101 Trinity data and the preliminary
economic assessment, appeared to this reporter as beyond enthusiasm for
the project, and see a potential for at least 100 million ounces of
silver-equivalent metals.

Of particular
relevance to investors might be the interest that BG Capital Group, led
by Canada's legendary Bobby Genovese, has shown in the Liberty Silver
play. Genovese dropped several million dollars of his own money into the
project in Nevada to kick-start the NI 43-101 upgrades on the more than
100 holes already drilled by Borax and Newmont.

“Without having to drill another hole, or spending another penny, we
think we're sitting on 50 million ounces of silver,” Genovese told me
during the site visit. “It's a $1.5 billion resource. We are on a fast
track to production, and nobody knows about us,” he added.

BG Capital pencils out the project, notwithstanding inclusion of the Hi
Ho acquisition, as follows: it works at $17 silver and goes strongly
north from there with the silver-equivalent price.

Liberty Silver is trading at a PNAV (price-to-net-asset value) based on the following resource amounts:

-0.65x Project NAV @ 24m silver equivalent ounces

-0.36x Project NAV @ 45m silver equivalent ounces

-0.22x Project NAV @ 70m silver equivalent ounces

-0.13x Project NAV @ 120m silver equivalent ounces

“If silver continues to trade around $25 and a significant amount of
additional resource is discovered, the potential upside is $6.41
(plus-816 percent)” of the current LSL trading price (as of Aug. 23) of
(CAN) 68 cents, says Genovese.

For a more comprehensive overview of the Liberty Silver Corp/Trinity Project story, go to the company’s website at http://www.libertysilvercorp.com and see both Geoff Browne’s BNN video appearance, as well as the company’s latest PDF presentation.

A double? A 10-bagger? Time will tell. Investors should do their own
due diligence. But don't sell the desert around Rochester short, nor for
that matter, Geoff Browne or Bobby Genovese either.

……………………………………………………………………………………………….

This distribution does not constitute a recommendation or advice of any kind.

You remember all that gnashing of teeth about James West and his writeup of Liberty Silver? How the writeup is deleted from his website, and from the Google cache, but you can still find it at the one other site?

I said little about Jeb Handwerger, mostly cos I didn't find much that he wrote about LSL.

Funny thing is, YouTube says "This video is unlisted. Only those with the link can see it."

Here's the screenshot....

Funny as to why it's unlisted. I hadn't come across this video before (it's linked from The Gold Report) so I dunno if it's always been unlisted or not. I checked a couple other of his uploads, and they weren't unlisted. Maybe the wrong box got ticked?

For the record, here's the writeup that goes with the video:

Liberty has made an explosive move since Mid-August on record volume.
Nevada is quite active as it is one of the most friendly and stable
mining jurisdictions in the World. Liberty's neighbor Coeur produced
over a 125 million ounces of silver. Liberty Silver's Trinity Project
was discovered in 1980 and was a past producing mine. Rio Tinto brought
this into production between 1987 and 1989. The mine operated when
silver was priced between $5 and $9 an ounce and produced 5 million
ounces of silver. The project has plenty of blue sky potential with
possibly over 100 million ounces of silver. Trinity is located in
mining friendly Pershing County, Nevada. Liberty recently acquired the
neighboring Hi-Ho Claims which contains a significant amount of silver.
The company is currently remodeling and updating their NI 43-101
compliant resource which will combine recent drilling with the newly
acquired Hi-Ho asset. Permitting is very straightforward. Liberty
wants to get the Trinity Project back into production within two years,
expand on Hi-Ho and continue to explore blue sky targets. Underneath
the oxide is a large resource of sulfides with excellent metallurgy with
a 90% recovery. The silver on the project is associated with lead and
zinc, which will be significant byproducts. Liberty has an experienced
geological team with a lot of experience building deposits in Nevada.
The company is looking to get into production with two years. We can
expect developments before the end of 2012 on metallurgy of the lower
grade sulfides. Liberty is working on a PEA by the first quarter of
2013.

While the video is still up, maybe you want to watch it. As for me, if I'm going to watch anything tonight, it's the next episode of Boardwalk Empire, not this.

On the other hand, when was the last time that the lamestream media all jumped aboard any junior miner? What sort of a boost do you think you'd get once the toothless hayseed goldbugs get swamped out by a great surge of the masses?

This was my email to someone this morning:

Y'know... I can see why Cramer would like them.

Juniors are desperate for cash, and there are only a few streamers to go to for funding. If there was competition in stream financing, the streamers would make less money; but instead there's very little competition (e.g. FNV only works with majors, so if you're a junior your only choice is SSL) so it's a buyer's market for streamers.

And the streamers have a high moat around them - wanna start your own streaming company? Good, just start with $1 billion in capital, and... wait, what?

Plus there's the suspicion (I heard at TRIC 2 weeks ago) that one day the PRC Central Bank, or Dubai, will come in and outright buy one of the streamers, as a way to fill their coffers with gold for the next 20 years - which shouldn't be getting too cheap any time soon, right?

And streamers can pay a dividend, and still plow excess profits into buying more streams. See how much SSL's financing last month killed its stock price? Oh wait, it didn't....

Who knows. Yes SSL is a gross bubble right now. Then again, maybe this is what it looks like when the mainstream likes a PM company all of a sudden?

Again, to me, it's important to know when your playing field has been swapped out with a new one.

Then again, maybe all the instos who have been in SSL since $1 pre-split are now dumping shares to retail at $15.

Then again, that doesn't mean they're smart for doing so.

Anyway, I own $10K in warrants, but on the Canadian exchange which is closed today for Lieutenant Columbo Day.

Yeah... Canadian holidays are kinda dumb. But at least we get paid to stay home.

Steven Englander of Citibank put it this way: “It now seems to me that the market fear may be that lower unemployment will lead to a premature Fed pull back from easy money even though more reliable labor market indicators do not signal a big improvement.”

Are you kidding me? So the market is saying that an unemployment targeting of 6% will mean that QE3 ends... when? Next week? And therefore now's a time to get out of the markets, because when US unemployment gets to 6% the effect on the Chinese and European economies, and the commodity complex, will be... bad? Because... growth? Because... American consumer demand?

OK, there's a clue that the market is becoming stupid and we should get out. As you've seen in the comments section of this blog, it's never good to stand in the way of abject fucking stupidity.

WSJ Marketbeat - Investors Brace for Earnings Season. I.e., Alcoa. Maybe that's the real problem - earnings are a backward-looking indicator, and because the summer has seen a nasty slowdown, the market thinks Kleinfeld's opening aria Tuesday night will tank the materials and the equities? And they're not wrong, since aluminium is in as much of a glut as iron ore right now: Alcoa's earnings should suck.

Then again Alcoa's earnings always suck. If Otto Rock was a Dow analyst instead of the junior miners, he'd call Alcoa a blanket avoid.

And finally, please read twoarticles from Also Sprach Analyst on the Chinese demographic cliff. Remember though that Also Sprach Analyst is to China what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is to the Euro: a hardcore skeptic who's always doom and gloom.

Frankly, I'm not too concerned about the Chinese demographic cliff; as long as Chinese productivity can outpace the worker collapse, they won't go into outright depression; also, there are other rapidly-growing populous areas in the world, like Indochina and Latin America, who should take up the slack; also, a strong period of US growth, and an end (hopefully someday) to the Euro purposeful-depression shenanigans should make up for the Chinese slackening.

However, the market is made up of idiot Americans who have a hard time grasping that there are more than 4-5 countries in the world; so I'm sure when the demographic collapse goes mainstream in the US news, we'll see a good strong market swandive for months on end.

Anyway... that's further off in the future. Just keep it under your cap for when you need it.

The Great Depression
of the 1930’s originated in the United States, but also severely
affected Germany. For years after the inflation, the Germans were
dependent on American credit and the associated high interest rates.The
inflow of American dollars allowed the German government to pay its war
reparations to other European nations, who in turn used this money to
pay off the debt to the United States, which was incurred during the
First World War. The Americans then loaned this money back to the
Germans.This system only worked as long as the American economy
prospered. After the crash of October 1929, the inflow of money came to a
halt. Unemployment started to rise and the public was becoming
increasingly unhappy with the economic situation.Foreign
investors began to demand the repayment of their credits and many
Germans took their money out of the country. During the summer of 1931, a
number of large German banks went under.The Reichsbank was
forced to accept a reduction in the money supply, because it could not
meet its standard of a gold and foreign exchange backed currency. The
subsequent lack of credit brought many viable companies to ruin.The
government ordered a reduction in prices, salaries and interest rates.
At the same time, other governments increased their import/export
tariffs and devalued the German currency. Between 1931 and 1932, the
German unemployment figure climbed to more than six million. This, along
with the deflation, paved the way for Adolf Hitler’s rise to power.

Does that sound anything like what you're doing to southern Europe? But no, it's all about you. Because in your own childish stunted brains you're still the fucking master race and Europe revolves around you. Like when you clamoured for a low central bank rate to help you reabsorb East Germany, and you broke the deficit rule, and Europe didn't mind because they wanted to help you get on your own feet again? Which caused you to overheat the periphery's real estate markets... oh wait, you don't remember that?

"The creeping expropriation of Germany" - is that like how you're sweeping in and buying up all the Greek real estate for cheap, now that you've collapsed the Greek economy? You know, the country with the fascist party waiting in the wings?

Fucking ignorant pig-headed Germans.

If you don't fucking smarten up, in six months Deutschebank will go under. Then we'll see who bothers to fucking feed your starving asses.

The Gold Report: Not so long ago, mining promoters—larger-than-life personalities who revved up retail investors about stocks—were an essential part of the junior mining business. But the NI 43-101 limits how much company presidents and CEOs can tout their stocks. Do promoters still have a role or have they disappeared from the scene?

James West: Promoters have not disappeared from the scene. Yes, the NI 43-101 puts a filter on how public companies communicate with the market, but promoters are essential to the life cycle of public companies.

[me here - how did that filter work in this case, Jimmy?]

There was a time when promoters were infiltrated by a larcenous element that would create and promote deals that could at best be described as very optimistic. Back then, these misleading statements could be distributed almost clandestinely. Thanks to the Internet and the NI 43-101, that larcenous element has largely been unable to operate as freely. People hear "promoter" and they immediately think "con artist," which is wrong-headed and a throwback to the pre-Internet era. Promoters now are legally responsible for the statements they make on behalf of a company. As a result, promotion is a lot more respectable.

[Promoters are legally responsible for the... wait, what?]

[...]

JW: A great stock promoter can credibly and convincingly convey the technical aspects of a project and the merits of the management team, and can honestly indicate who the other investors are and what the exit strategy is to as broad an audience as possible.

[So were the technical aspects of LSL credibly and convincingly conveyed? The 70% ownership, back-in, NSR, low rock value, lack of capital? And what about the merits of the management team and who the other investors were?]

[...]

JW: Arguably, anybody who speaks positively about a public company is promoting it. In our newsletter, we are happy to promote the stocks we invest in because we own them in our fund, and we think they have value. When we write about these companies, we try to articulate a company's merits in terms of structure, financing, projects and management without being too promotional. The idea is to say, "This company is good enough for me to invest in it, and here's why I like it." It is third-party endorsement in its most sincere form.

JW: The role of a newsletter writer in mining is to convey complex technical concepts in simple terms that a layperson can understand and use to decide whether an investment is appropriate for them. We aid in the function of promoting the stock, but we are not promoters.

[Looking back on things as they stand right now, do you still feel that Liberty Silver was an appropriate investment for the layperson?]

OK, no more posts from me about Liberty Silver or this paid sucker. I've got important things to do today. IKN (and probably many other people) will have a writeup on it tonight, and maybe Monday someone in the press will care enough to go into more detail about the whole thing.

Also, I don't like the looks of the people who've been skulking around my blog these past 24 hours. I'll be saving the net traffic files in case some investigator wants it for connecting dots and such.

1) The Euro's not painting a H&S unless it's confirmed by volume. If the Euro is painting a H&S then it begs the question of what exactly will send it to $0.80, considering what we've been through already.
2) Crude is diverging the US stock market because of demand destruction. A drop in crude is bullish for the whole world.
3) "India suffered a flash crash. Two months after the US suffered a flash crash, the market was down!!1!eleven!!!" Give me a fucking break. This guy has a job?

Peter Brandt - natural gas has put in a major bottom. Now I remember how much I mocked his shitty, shitty, repetitively shitty calls on gold for the past year. So I won't take his call on natural gas too seriously. And I don't see the final "kick in the teeth" on that chart that you need for a major bottom, like what we had in the miners. And as he says, UNG is not natural gas, so how the fuck am I supposed to play it? Still, the price of natural gas now needs regular attention.

ArmoTrader - gold bulls watch out. Gold hasn't taken out $1800 yet, so we should be worried. Sure. Then again, gold demand depends on China and India, not QE3, so if the US is improving, and we keep seeing positive stories out of China, gold should eventually go up, right?

Also with the "lifestyle companies". Yes, even polite people like Mickey and Brent are unafraid to say the truth when the truth needs to be told. I'm sure Mickey hit 100 CEOs with his remark, but those are 100 CEOs that he should never want to deal with.

And, stunningly, I can't disagree with Tommy's assertion that 95% of newsletter writers should disappear. There are very few writers who are giving you anything more than what you'll find for free on Stockhouse or Agoracom or (gasp) the Yahoo boards. You might as well just buy whatever Stockhouse's thedave2006 buys; he's probably outperformed most newsletter writers.