Research 224: Integrated Modelling Project Ireland

Author: J. Andrew Kelly

National capacities in integrated air and climate modelling were utilised and advanced, along with policy analysis, to respond to pressing challenges regarding climate and air pollution. The research employed a broad array of models and methodologies to critically evaluate the issues, and thereafter to rigorously develop and deliver valuable insight and practical decision support.

Identifying Pressures

Integrated modelling tools were applied to identify environmental pressures across multiple sectors under the thematic headings of climate and air pollution. The team developed and ran numerous climate and air scenarios in the GAINS Ireland model to explore the evolving national challenges in relation to climate and air targets in Ireland. This research also supported national engagements in relation to the determination of national climate and air targets under European legislation.

Informing Policy

In addition to modelled scenarios, it is recognised that actionable policy support requires bespoke analysis of the broader issues, challenges and considerations that policymakers face. As part of the decision support proposed by this research, relevant policy analysis has been offered for topics including residential solid fuel use, electrification of residential heating, school transport strategies, air and climate policy synergies, transport policy intervention assessments and many other topics.

Developing Solutions

The project advanced and maintained critical analytical infrastructure such as GAINS Ireland, providing research support in European policy development, and delivering concise policy briefs, papers and recommendations. In addition, the project delivered a guidebook for policy analysts. This involved the development of supporting research for spatial distribution of emissions and the application of that research to a developed methodology for estimating the marginal damage values of a tonne of a given air pollutant in Ireland. A formal guidebook was then developed, designed and released to support the weighting of air pollution into public policy evaluations. A detailed methodological report was also released to support the potential adoption of this work into formal Irish evaluation processes.