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Friday, 20 January 2017

XI emerges as globalisation champion (Pakistan Observer)

by M D Nalapat | Geopolitical Notes From India

ALTHOUGH the Democratic Party in the United States as well as the higher
(ie politically connected) echelons ascribe the victory of Donald Trump
in the 2016 Presidential polls to Vladimir Putin, even they know that
such an explanation makes no sense. Indeed, by making it, the elite
establishment of both the east and west coasts of the US are insulting
the wisdom of tens of millions of voters in their own country, by
claiming that they can be swayed by Moscow in the manner that is being
claimed by the continuing cacophony of anti-Trump voices throughout both
sides of the Atlantic.
The fact is that Hillary Clinton lost because she was regarded as the
candidate of Wall Street. She was regarded as being in the pocket of
financial and other vested interests contributing millions of dollars to
the Clinton Foundation and to both Bill and Hillary Clinton, who often
earned $ 500 and more for every word that was spoken at the meetings
convened for them by large corporations in order to legally put money
into the pockets and purses of Bill and Hillary Clinton. Wall Street has
gobbled up thousands of companies across the globe and broken them up
so as to sell the component parts at a substantial profit. All that Wall
Street cares about is moneyman that too money for the few at the top of
the financial conglomerates.
Fortunately for the Republican Party, the Democratic Party establishment
(including the newly inducted Barack Obama) ensured that the will of
the grassroots was thwarted and Hillary Clinton was made the nominee.
From that moment onwards, unless an individual with zero appeal to
mainstream US voters such as John McCain had been chosen, the Republican
Party was on track to win the White House. Donald Trump came across as
the most authentic anti-Politics As Usual voice, and in the primaries,
he was chosen as the Republican Party nominee. Although it had been the
US and the EU that had been pushing for “globalisation” since the 1980s,
by the time the 21st century rolled by, it was clear that Asia and not
Europe or the US was walking away with the prize. Over the past fifteen
years, there has been a rise of anti-globalisation sentiment across the
US and the EU, especially because of the rise of China and other Asian
countries in the growth sweepstakes. Globalisation was supposed to carry
forward the domination of the US and the EU for at least a generation
more.
Instead, it saw even the US being challenged for the top spot by China, a
country that had been derided as a “coolie power” not long ago. India
too was improving its economic position, as also other Asian countries.
East Asia was proving to be tough competition to the US and the EU. Even
the market for modern industries such as telecom and its derivatives
was being captured by companies headquartered in China, Japan or South
Korea. In computer hardware manufacture, Taiwan set up a sizeable lead.
Asian brainpower was proving itself the equal of brainpower from within
even the most advanced members of the NATO alliance. It was not Asia or
its companies that were responsible for the steady lowering of living
standards of the lower and middle classes in the US and in large parts
of Europe. Rather, it was because of the distortions in domestic policy
that gave undue benefit to a few vested interests over the welfare of
the people as a whole.
However, because of manipulation of the “free” media in the US and the
EU, a perception was created that it was globalisation and Asia that was
responsible for economic distress rather than domestic vested interests
who were accumulating huge fortunes at the expense of the poor and the
middle classes. President Donald Trump is going to have to face the fact
that an anti-globalisation, anti-Asian manufactures and services stance
will harm rather than help the US economy. However, the shrewd business
baron has sought to solve this puzzle by focussing on Mexico and China
rather than making a generalised attack on globalisation or on Asian
economies. Indeed, Trump has welcomed better cooperation with some Asian
countries. Now that the US has turned away publicly from globalisation,
into the leadership vacuum created by such a shift has entered
President XI Jinping of China.
At Davos, Xi surprised his audience by calling for a renewed emphasis on
globalisation. This was in contrast to the anti-globalisation views
expressed by several politicians in the EU and the US. Under Xi Jinping,
China has been taking steps towards global leadership, most notably in
the One Belt One Road (OBOR) plan. Once this becomes operational, there
is expected to be seamless land connectivity between Asia and Europe,
thereby serving as a boost mechanism for overland trade, both by rail
and road. Indeed, OBOR would place China at the core of the global
trading system. However, it would not be the only factor. The primary
cause of a potential shift in the keystone role in the matter of global
trade from Washington to Beijing would be the faster growth rate of
China. Should Xi ensure that an average rate of growth of 6% be
maintained over the next decade, it would follow naturally that China
would emerge as the key driver of global trade.
Indeed, exports to China already account for a critical share of exports
of key trading powers, including Germany and Japan. However, what would
be of still greater significance to President Xi would be continued
smooth access to major global markets for Chinese products. Given that
there seems an increasing likelihood of a trade war between Washington
and Beijing, progress in OBOR would have the effect of nudging several
European economies into China’s corner, while coming down in favour of
globalisation would appeal to several Asian countries. At Davos,
President Xi was clearly looking at building useful alliances in Asia
and Europe in the event of a trade war with a Trump administration. That
was the significance of his unprecedented embrace of what till now has
been seen as a US-EU concept, globalisation.

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About Prof. M. D. Nalapat

Prof. Madhav Das Nalapat (aka MD Nalapat or Monu Nalapat), holds the UNESCO Peace Chair and is Director of the Department of Geopolitics at Manipal Academy of Higher Education, India. The former Coordinating Editor of the Times of India, he writes extensively on security, policy and international affairs. Prof. Nalapat has no formal role in government, although he is said to influence policy at the highest levels. @MD_Nalapat

MD Nalapat's anthology 'Indutva' (1999)

In 1999, Har-Anand published Indutva an anthology of MD Nalapat's 1990s columns from the Times of India. The individual columns are posted here, in 1998 and 1999 of the blog archive, though the exact dates of publication are uncertain.