Under The Knife

UTK Interactive

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With the 2008 season winding down and our new comment feature working, I want to try a little experiment. Over the last two weeks of the season, my e-mail box usually fills up with desperate requests for information by fantasy owners trying to squeeze out the last little bit of a title run, of playoff-bound fans trying to figure out their chances, and from a lot of insiders that are starting to collect information before they embark on their off-season free agent and trade discussions. While I've never done a mailbag column (the oldest crutch in the sportswriter's toolbox), this is going to function pretty closely to it, but instead of e-mail, we'll use comments. Ask your questions, as specifically as you want, and throughout the day, I'll answer them as best I can. There are limits, so don't try playing "stump the band"; also, don't expect me to whip out a quick study on some major topic, but I will take suggestions for things to look at this offseason. Minor league info, especially at this time of year, is exceptionally hard to come by. Kevin Goldstein's the one with a beret, while I prefer a ballcap and a brunette.

So today, I'm working for you. It's like that every day, but it will be in sharper focus. Powered by whatever the heck you want to be powered by, on to the injuries:

Rich Harden (0 DXL)Carlos Zambrano (0 DXL)
Harden was pushed back, but this isn't an injury or even buying him extra rest. It functions as that, but the Cubs are merely setting up their playoff rotation. Harden appears to be locked in for the second game of their Division Series, but Zambrano's status could throw everything off. There were no notes from the beatwriters about whether Zambrano did his side work in preparation for his Wednesday start, but since there's no news, let's assume it's good news. There is plenty of speculation about starting Zambrano in the third game of their LDS, putting Ryan Dempster in line for the home start in the series opener, but if Zambrano pitches like he did last time out, Lou Piniella's going to need more Tums.

Howie Kendrick (0 DXL)
Kendrick returned as planned on Monday, but didn't make it through the whole game. This was by design, as the Angels simply gave him a couple of at-bats and some field time without taxing the hamstring. It's a smart play by the Angels, who will continue to do this over the next couple of days to make sure that Kendrick is ready for full-time duty when it really counts.

John Maine (30 DXL)
Maine threw a 25-pitch simulated game on Monday, and appears to have found some velocity. It's not clear whether it was enough velocity, how he'll recover from the throwing session, or how long he could go in a real game, but it's something. Even in this last desperate week, Jerry Manuel doesn't seem inclined to use Maine, not even in low-leverage situations. With the Mets just a game up on the Brewers and falling behind the Phillies, it's harder and harder to explain why Manuel is digging in his heels on this.

Hanley Ramirez (0 DXL)
Ramirez was back in the lineup for the Marlins, as expected, but he did go oh-fer and looked uncomfortable at the plate. After four missed games, it's tough to tell if Ramirez is just missing some timing or if his shoulder is throwing his swing off. Whichever it is, sources tell me that there's very little chance that Ramirez will need surgery to re-repair his problematic left shoulder.

Roy Oswalt (0 DXL)
The Astros are still delusional, and one reflection of that is their planning to start Oswalt on three days' rest Thursday. They're 3½ games out of the wild-card race, and with less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs, the team that's scratched and clawed its way all the way to mediocrity is going to risk it's one good starter, tilting at windmills. While the real risk of using Oswalt is small, it's the shortsightedness without upside that's the real problem, both now and in the future for Astros fans. When it's time to write it all up, Oswalt's career path might be the defining arc for this era's Astros.

J.D. Drew (45 DXL)
Drew had an epidural to try to relieve some of the pain and to break the pain/spasm cycle that's been in full effect. These usually come in a series of three over the course of a week to ten days, so even if this works, Drew's chance of playing in the first round of the playoffs is about as low as the chance of the Sox not being in the playoffs.

So now it's on you. Put your questions in the comments and I'll drop in all day to answer them.

Looks that way on Mora. The O's tend to be very conservative with injuries. They haven't made it official and there's the chance they'll spot him in, especially with Trembley so perturbed with some of the on-field performance.

Will, two parts if that's okay. Have their been any whispers about Verlander having physical issues causing his seeming dip in velocity this year? Also, do you ever foresee the Zumaya of '06 re-appearing, or has that ship sailed? Thank you.

Verlander was making adjustment to his mechanics and pitch selection in the first half, but showed enough pop in the middle third of the season as to assuage injury/fatigue concerns, but then went back to the cutter.

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/Justin_Verlander.html

He's averaging 96 on his fastball and 94 on the cutter, so I don't think velocity is the issue!

On Zumaya, he's shown two things: 1) He can't stay healthy but 2) when he is, he's still got it. Leyland seems inclined to install him as closer next year, so I think he'll be good, not great. If I told you that I'd compare him to Kerry Wood '08, would that be a good or bad thing? Not the performance, but the way we thought of Wood coming into '08.

Can you explain the numbers "Movement in X (in.)" in the Verlander link? The way I'm reading it makes it seem like his fastball has a lot more movement than his cutter, and that they both come in on RHB... but that can't be, right?

Not a question but a comment -- the Astros turned out to be much less delusional than we thought. I don't see why they shouldn't continue their brakeless dash to the finish, since they invested so much in it. What's Oswalt's future worth to them if this might be their best season for several years?
One other point: the Astros only need to finish within two games to give them an endless reason to bitch and moan over life's (and Selig's) unfairness. In terms of selling tickets to the fan base, such an ending would probably have value for them.

That's a reasonable point. I just go back to the work on the value of those wins that Nate and others have done. I'd like to see ... well, let's look ... did the Astros play crap competition in August and September?

I see 3 against COL, 7 against PIT, 3 against CIN, 3 against FLA, 3 against ATL, and 5 against CUB. Aside from the Cubs (who they did sweep at Wrigley), that's not exactly stellar competition. I'll let someone else look at August, but I'd expect similar results.

Will McLane really rail against Selig given his record as a company man? I can see it, but the way that the team mailed it in against the Cubs was just sad.

With all of the attention being paid to the Mets' horrendous bullpen, some of the consequences of it have been ignored to an extent. Jerry Manuel has been riding Pelfrey and Santana hard because there's really no other choice. We all know how much the lack of a trustworthy reliever is damaging the team's chances this year - how much harm is it doing to them in the medium term?

The concern is much more significant with Pelfrey, who the Mets admit is in uncharted territory. For Santana, he's out of the injury nexus, has proven durable, and hasn't thrown big-count games all season. While he's insanely valuable, I'm not too worried. I do think we'll see Pelfrey have something more than the normal Verducci Effect. Maybe the Mets could Joba-ize him.

No, but is that so bad? The biggest issue is that he's going to need time at DH, if not full time, which reduces some flexibility for the Rangers given their surplus of C/1B/DH types. If Bradley ends up being the mirror image of Harold Baines in temperament but similar in production, that's not bad! A FOT compared Bradley to Paul O'Neill the other day and I didn't see it at first, but the more I think about it, the more I get it.

I would note that he wants a long term deal and I'd be hesitant. Travis Hafner showed that even DHs can be affected by injuries. Three years? Only if I can clear out one of the Ramirez/Blalock/Davis crew.

I'd definitely definitely definitely avoid both, especially given Furcal's assumed cost. The radiating pain he's had post-surgical is a real red flag. Short term high incentive? Sure, but I doubt he'd sign it. I hate to invoke Andruw Jones, but I think he'll get a contract along the lines of Jones', which I admit I thought was a great deal at the time.

Yes, this was pure Verducci Effect. Interesting thing for me is that Carmona's G/F has gone up this season, but his control in the second half is still pretty bad. That 2007 level was high and getting back to it might be tough. Good again? Yeah I think he will.

Hi Will, just wondering whether you have heard anything about Rocco Baldelli's recovery from the mitochondrial disorder. I know he's playing (and doing well) but I was wondering whether his future is limited as a part time player or is it simply a case of wait and see?

Marcum's done for '09.
McGowan is supposed to be ready for spring training after labrum surgery, not TJ. We'll have to see if he's on that plan and how he responds. I wouldn't count on him.
Brad Arnsberg, I understand, is healthy and ready for '09. Just sayin'.

Here's an odd stat ... The Dodgers are one of very few teams that has a lower Injury Cost (calculated from MORP) than actual dollars lost. Some of that is due to bad free agent contracts overvaluing guys like Jason Schmidt and Nomar Garciaparra, but I wonder if that says anything about the Dodgers' medical staff.

How do you see the hip issues returning for Duchscherer affecting him in 2009? Is this the same issue he had the surgery for? He was so good this year before the problem resurfaced, can he overcome it or are we looking at a recurring injury?

Nolan Ryan is supposedly going to be firing minor league coaches in the Rangers system because they are (among other things) keeping the young pitchers on pitch counts that Ryan thinks are too conservative.

As a Ranger fan, should I be concerned that Ryan is going to go all Dallas Green on Feliz, Holland, Main, Perez, et al, or is this much ado about nothing?

Who knows? A minor league coach does what he's told from above, so I don't think firing them accomplishes much. If Ryan wanted to abolish pitch limits, he could. If he thinks that pitching development is best done in a crucible, he'll have to take some losses to elite level guys who can't handle 120 pitches. A logical development system just begs for this kind of situation. Look, I bet we have 140-150 pitch per start guys, so why not use logic to identify them?

Someday, a team will be interested. I'm here, though it's not a tough system to implement.

Hi Will. I read in a Chicago Tribune article last week where Kerry Wood mentioned throwing a "new slurvey-slider" (or something like that) to get an important out last week. The terminology reminded me of the slurve that he invented and threw for his 20K game in 1998. Two part question:
1 - Does this - or any - new pitch have short or long potential to cause injury? Have you seen him throw it, and observed if it does anything different to his mechanics?
2 - How much of an affect did the original slurve have to do with his arm falling off (to use a technical term)?

The second question might be better served as an off-season article, I don't know. Thanks for your work, I've learned a lot from reading you.

A while ago in one of your chats someone brought up the fact that pitchfx showed no changes in Zambrano's release point, contradicting what people have been saying about him "dropping his elbow." I was wondering if you confirmed this? The dropped elbow obviously is consistent with rotator cuff pain. I'm a Cubs fan looking for a glimmer of hope with the guy...I hate heading into the playoffs with Big Z being the biggest question mark.

Yeah, it may be a failing of PFX or rather a failing of me to understand how it works. He's definitely dropping his elbow and I'll definitely be watching tomorrow. This is another one for Mat Kovach or Eric Seidman.

Looking through Lincecum's PITCHf/x numbers from his last start (the one right after his 138 pitch game) his velocity was down by a little more than 1mph and his fastball lost about an inch and a half of horizontal movement. Is losing velocity and movement indications of fatigue? And if so, does his injury risk increase? Thanks.

Great question and as of now, the answer is "I don't know." The 1mph loss doesn't seem significant, but with PFX, we can now look at these questions and eventually answer them. That wasn't possible when I started writing. Heck, I couldn't get good velocity numbers then!

The second planned start is an "as necessary" and is one of those kitchen sink, do-anything moves. Can't fault that at all, since even less effective, he's still their best available option. I'm curious, but haven't been able to find out whether his velocity was off last time. He did throw more changeups, but that can mean a lot of things.

Will, With all the pitching injuries the Jays have had over the last couple of years (Marcum, McGowan, Janssen, AJ last year, BJ, League, Chacin...), is there something more systematic than just bad luck going on?

It seems like a number of them have been a) overworked, b) rushed back from injury, or c) misdiagnosed or injury ignored/hidden.

D) All of the above. I'd advise everyone to listen to BPR where David Laurila talks to Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg. It's a systemic issue, one where Ricciardi's cavalier attitude has bitten them.

Will,
I always wonder how a major injury and subsequent time lost hurts the development of a young pitcher. In particular, with regards to the prematurely anointed ace Phil Hughes. Given his injuries, how do you see his effectiveness and risk or recurrence going forward? Thanks.

It's never been an arm problem and he could end up like Josh Beckett or Nolan Ryan in that respect. Still I dont think it's helping his development path and it's costing the Yankees his pre-arb years. He's very risky, but a lot of upside. I said last year that I liked (in order) Gallardo-Hughes-Lester-Bailey and I still like them in that order (tho I root for Lester as a story.)

I'm not a scout, I'm not Kevin Goldstein, but I would never put a young pitcher in the top 20 of prospects. Who would be on that list for '09?

Brandon Morrow's velocity, since he joined the rotation, has been excellent - almost no drop from his relief numbers - but his fastball velocity just tanks after he's thrown about 60 fastballs (and given his pitch selection, that happens at about 75 pitches). Any concern here, or is it just stamina?

Yeah, a lot of people have commented on this and I'll admit I haven't seen Morrow pitch at all. I can't even remember seeing him in relief. The Mariners are just so bad that even Ichiro can't make me watch them if there's any other options. I do think it's stamina, esp since they seem to have half-assed the switch over.

While I understand the general idea behind the "Verducci Effect," that young pitchers who exceed the previous year's IP by a certain amount are more succeptible to injury or diminished effectiveness the following year, why is it based only on major league innings? Shouldn't minor league innings be considered, even if they are less stressful by nature? As an example, I've heard Kevin Slowey be mentioned as a candidate for regression based on his major league IP jumping from 66.2 last year to 156.2 (and counting), despite throwing a total of 200.1 last season when his AAA numbers are included.

Yes, they should and Tom Verducci does. I also know some teams that do it internally. Problem is in my studies, the effect was more predictive if I didn't include them. I have no idea why and it's something I'd really like to re-visit, especially with someone who has a much, much better grasp of statistics. That said, I think this is a biomechanical problem at heart.

I just turned in my Black & Blue Report. It should be up very quickly over at footballoutsiders.com. Westbrook's will definitely affect them. And my fantasy team! Argh, I'm 0-3 in two leagues ... but I still say my pick of Felix Jones is a good one.

In order to optimize the talent of pitchers like Halladay and Sabathia, what do you think of using them as non-traditional relievers? Is it physiologically possible to get 200+ innings of sub-3.00 ERA without "wasting" a significant portion of those innings on blowout victories? One idea: If a team has a 3-run lead after 2 innings, bring in Halladay/Sabathia for the save.

I like the idea, but I cant imagine they'd be more valuable there than as starters. Using them as a basis for a four-man sounds good. Why not just pull them and bring them back on "short rest" in a blowout? How about using the pen to start a game, then the starter comes in for the third or fourth and goes to the closer.

I'm not against experimenting, especially if you are a second division team, but I have my doubts this would work. The problem with forced relieving - such as bringing in a starter automatically after a reliever's 2 or 3 innings is that it is a waste of resouces to some degree. You are taking out a guy who is potentially doing very well or pitching an inferior pitcher unnecessarily while keeping out one of your aces.

Of course, using a closer is a type of forced relieving - and, yes, I am in the closers-are-not-optimally-used camp. This isn't to say we should go back to the days of complete game machoism. A strong bullpen and healthy starters are good things. Closers are human - unpredictable. If you have a reliever or starter going strong and is strong enough to continue, it is a bad bet to take him out just because you have a ninth inning closing situation.

I don't understand why teams don't more often bring a starter on in relief on his "throw day". Seems to me you're going to have one guy available for this role in every game, and it would allow you to use the roster spot in some other way. If a team were to commit to this right out of spring training, the starters could just make it part of their 5-day routine.

Will - thanks so much for doing this. I know you touched on the two Jays with injured wings already. But more specifically, while I know Marcum is expected to miss all of next season - what sort of effectiveness can we in Toronto expect from McGowan when he returns (I've read in the local rags that he won;t be back til May). Similarly, Casey Janssen also a a torn labrum wipe out his '08 - yet talk is of him competing for the starting rotation in 09 (he was a reliever in 07) - is there any reason to beleive that he can start next year? That he can't?

Yeah, Ive heard April and May -- its a question of how long it will take him to get back to effectiveness, not unlike BJ Ryan this year. While doctors are better with labrums now, there's really no way of guaging this until they actually start throwing. So many injured Jays, so little responsibility taken.

CoCo Crisp - suddenly he's out of the roster and no notes on injury. Is this a migraine thing or have they just decided to see what others can do? Seemed like he was closing well and then fell off the map.

Yes, tho I'm still concerned by the shoulder and his inconsistency and yes, Capps looks good, but man, that Chavez kid can throw. There are very few guys who's ball explodes more out of his hand. It's almost like watching Kazmir pitch.

Ok, the above should be for the one below ... and as for Ellis, yeah, there's several that have come back from it all over the infield. It's not nearly as bad for a player as a hitter. JJ Hardy is the guy who comes to mind.

Why are some players placed on the DL in the last few weeks and others are not? I note that Mark Ellis and Sarfate were DL'ed, but other players who are clearly out for the remainder of the year like Mora and Washburn are not

I was wondering if you thought JD Drew's injury will need surgery, and if this injury will affect next/future seasons. I was also wondering if his back injury was a pre-existing injury when he signed the 5Yr/$70MM deal with the RS? Is there a provision for the Sox to terminate the deal if the injury became a worsening concern with time (i seem to remember the deal holding up over an issue like this).
Thanks for all the info and entertainment.

I'm a Giants fan and I wished they shut him down three weeks ago. They're throwing him out there to win the award and use as a marketing tool for 2009. There's no baseball reason for him to be on the mound tonight- it's all business. I pray he's healthy for all of 2009 or there will be some serious second guessing.

Fantasy question: With regards to Lincecum's recent pitch counts (can we call this the "Bochy effect"?), does his usage compound the injury risk in subsequent seasons? How risky would you consider a contract longer than, say, 2 years?

Albert Pujols. Last I heard, he was talking about getting the surgery, but the club made a statement about that being premature, looking at other options, etc. What do you think SHOULD happen, and what do you think WILL?

So what's up with Branyan. Yost's failure to play him against righties seemed odd (his OPS was 1050 vs rhp, Hall and Counsel were good for about 600). Then the mysterious injury. He was supposed to be back in mid-September but isn't??

Yeah, the oblique strain that's gone on forever. Yost made a lot of decisions on gut, in opposition to the evidence-based culture of the team. I wish I knew more about the injury, but no one's talking and the guys who cover the team don't seem to be asking.

I'm still stumped why the Nats would announce they were going to non-tender him. I've ceased trying to explain Bowden and I'm vexed that it looks like he'll get another year steering the team. Like McGowan above, the labrum injury is about as bad as it gets, but he's certainly worth bringing in on an incentive-laden deal a la Texas with Gagne in 07.

1) Would you like to see UTK Interactive as a regular feature, or would you rather do chats?

2) Why does no one seem to "get" UTK Wrap? I can't tell you how many times people have asked "why does it repeat?" It's a recap, done for non-subscribers and our friends at SI.

My reddest flag? I did a dry run of the THR system while testing a couple changes, so this is unlikely to hold true, but it's Johnny Cueto. Max Scherzer was up there and Mike Pelfrey was too. Clayton Kershaw came out a bit lower than I expected.

People who don't get the wraps are the same people who blog in to say "you suck" (or worse) even though they spend 30 minutes each week reading your stuff. I'll never understand how someone can hate a writer with a fiery passion and yet read each and every article.

Please don't worry what the stupid people say- and for heaven's sake don't respond. Responding will only make them feel important. If you want to vent, just make fun of them on your personal blog (Keith Law does this with great humor).

Can you comment on Jason Hirsh's spring training injury and how it was handled, effectively making 2008 a lost season for him? Is there something else going on, a cascade injury? Is there reason to discount his future as mid-rotation starter?

Steven Pearce, Mat Gamel and J.R. Towles. Why aren't their respective teams playing them more. Will we see any change on any of them in the last week. I thought sure that Gamel would play more after the manager change.

Will,
Have the Mets injury problems mostly been the result of having an old and injury-prone roster, or is there something sub-par about the medical/conditioning program? Guys like Maine, Pagan, Castro, Church aren't nearly as old as Hernandez, Easley, Alou, Pedro.

Hi Will, I know the question part has finished but I just thought i'd comment on a couple of the things you've said.

Firstly on the interactive bit, yeah I like it a lot it's very fun and very gracious of you to answer everyone's questions. Only problem might be if you get 500 questions to respond to but if it's manageable I would love to see a repeat.

On the UTK Wrap thing I think people that have been subscribers for a while forget that some things are open to non-subscribers and help to encourage new people to sample the site before subscribing. I think most subscribers skim read and pick up the new bits and have a look at the injury cost stats

On that note I have no idea how people can read this site regularly and not subscribe I think I lasted about 3 days before signing up when I first visited. I'd gladly skip a few meals to pay for a subscription if I was broke enough!!

What happened to Eric Stults? He was a pretty effective lefty earlier this year and he was called up in September. Yet Torre pitches people like Proctor and Jason Johnson and this guy is MIA. Is he injured?