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Why Syrian Constitutional Debates Are Unlikely to Bring Political Reform

Author: Lorenzo Trombetta,

the battle against the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) progresses in Syria, and details of Russia’s de-escalation zone plan slowly solidify, the push for a political solution and constitutional negotiations could likely retake the spotlight in the next round of talks set for late August in Astana and September in Geneva.

The military situation on the ground has changed rapidly in Syria since the start of the year, and Russia – whose actions in Syria demonstrate a clear push for a military victory for Syrian president Bashar al-Assad – has positioned itself as a power broker for any future constitutional talks. As a result, any new debate about a constitution is likely to be an empty exercise, promoted by the Russians and their allies to “sell” their project of de facto partitioning Syria, while keeping Assad formally at his place.