Published 4:00 am, Friday, July 18, 2003

2003-07-18 04:00:00 PDT Washington -- A private memo from a prominent Republican strategist offers a rare glimpse at the bare-knuckle approaches being considered to oust Gov. Gray Davis, outlining numerous ways to "kill Davis softly" in the recall effort without turning the unpopular governor into a sympathetic figure.

"While it is important to trash the governor," reads the blunt, 17-page memo from Virginia-based communications expert Frank Luntz, "it should be done in the context of regret, sadness and balance."

The internal memo dated July 10 was commissioned by Rep. Darrell Issa's Rescue California committee, which has led the effort to put the unprecedented recall of California's governor on the ballot. The committee financed by Issa, R-Vista (San Diego County) and two other pro-recall groups say they have gathered more than 1.6 million signatures in support of their effort -- far more than needed to put the recall to a vote.

The memo features 17 recommendations aimed at undermining Davis' credibility and reassuring swing voters, who may not like the governor but are even more concerned about a possible replacement.

"This uncertainty about a replacement is going to be the single biggest hurdle for you to overcome," warns the memo in bold print on its opening page.

"Anyone who thinks this is a slam dunk is nuts."

After testing pro- and anti-Davis messages on focus groups of voters in Sacramento and Orange counties, Luntz wrote that the Democratic governor's low personal standing -- despite his re-election in November -- is among the recall's greatest assets.

"In a decade of political research, I have never seen an individual just re- elected with so much animosity from the voters," he wrote.

"The fact is, the more Davis speaks, the lower his popularity goes . . . the more he talks, the easier the recall becomes."

Davis, appearing Thursday in San Francisco, again expressed confidence that he'll defeat the recall effort.

"I've been written off more times than a corpse," Davis said. "The pundits have more than once underestimated our ability to succeed."

Roger Salazar, a consultant to the governor, called the Luntz memo a piece of "blatant political gamesmanship, a shameless attempt to sugarcoat what is clearly a right-wing Republican effort to nullify a legitimately held election. "

EVIDENCE OF NATIONAL INTEREST

The involvement of Luntz, who was the pollster behind former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich's "Contract With America," underscores the national stakes in California's recall election, which appears headed to the ballot pending verification of signatures.

Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe spoke out against the recall Thursday in Los Angeles, and the potential upheaval has begun to attract attention from coast to coast.

Davis made no apologies Thursday for a lawsuit seeking to challenge the petitions that call for his ouster.

"Clearly, my allies have the right to bring this matter before a judge," the governor said.

Davis' backers have argued that many of those who helped collect signatures in support of the recall were from out of state and illegally registered to vote in California. A Los Angeles judge refused Wednesday to block the continuing effort to count and verify the signatures but will reconsider the issue at a hearing today.

Chris Wysocki, a spokesman for Rescue California, said Luntz had been hired to conduct focus groups and would remain as an adviser to the recall campaign. Wysocki said that Luntz's suggestions had "cemented our hunches" about the best way to unseat the governor.

The memo urges recall advocates to focus on Davis' failed leadership, rather than policy issues such as "wasteful spending."

"Issues are less important than attributes and character traits in your recall effort," Luntz wrote. "Voters are more likely to throw out Gray Davis for his inability to lead than for allowing too much spending."

He suggests the recall campaign's message be boiled down to two words: "five years," and that voters be repeatedly told that the governor had five years to keep his promise to improve the quality of living in California -- and failed.

However, the memo notes that an indictment of Davis' record "will earn you only 45 percent of the vote. You need to go further."

To win support from conservative Democrats and independents, Luntz suggests the campaign warn of the consequences of three more years of Davis' rule.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AFTERMATH

The focus groups found only two pro-Davis arguments that resonated with participants: uncertainty over a potential replacement, and the estimated $30 million cost of a special election.

When Davis supporters touch on the uncertainty issue, his opponents should "talk about guaranteed failure," says the memo. As for the $30 million cost, it is suggested Davis opponents point out that the state's deficit is growing by more than $30 million each day.

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, who provided the memo to The Chronicle, ridiculed Luntz's efforts to blame Davis for the state's record $38 billion budget deficit, saying the same arguments could be made against President Bush.

"He (Davis) turned record surpluses into record deficits," she read from the memo. "Sound familiar, Mr. President?"

The memo urges restraint on behalf of Davis' opponents, warning that too harsh an attack will turn the governor into a martyr.

"Be careful not to blame everything wrong on Davis," warns the memo. "Voters know the national economy is weak and that other states are having budget problems as well. And there's always the risk of seeming too partisan or political."

"Acknowledge that Gray Davis isn't responsible for everything wrong in California and it will improve your credibility," the memo advises. "The more you acknowledge, the more you can attack."

Luntz also wrote that most Californians "are unfamiliar with the recall process -- and this uncertainty means voters can be easily swayed in either direction."