Gains will be driven by a rebound and reshoring of manufacturing activity, and heightened demand for boxes that feature high quality graphics or are constructed in display-ready form.

US demand to rise 2.6% annually through 2018

Corrugated and paperboard box demand in the US is forecast to increase 2.6 percent per year to $39.4 billion in 2018, improving from the performance of the recession-impacted 2008-2013 period. Gains will be driven by a rebound in manufacturing output and continued expansion of the overall economy. Growth will also benefit from heightened demand for value added box types such as those that feature high quality graphics and printing or are constructed in display-ready form. Moreover, the trend of “reshoring” or “onshoring” of some manufacturing activity will counter the outsourcing of production to low labor cost regions that has restricted growth for manufacturing and the box industry.

Corrugated & solid fiber boxes to remain dominant

Corrugated and solid fiber box demand will expand more rapidly than that for folding cartons and set-up boxes through 2018. Growth will be fueled by a recovery in the manufacturing sector, especially in the output of food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, and other nondurables. Other factors will include an improved outlook for consumer spending, a rebound in construction activity, and continued rapid growth for online shopping. Box production volume will rebound from declines of the past decade but will be moderated by lighter weight containerboard and pressures to reduce excess packaging.

Folding carton demand is projected to increase at a slower than average annual pace through 2018, held back by competition from other packaging formats -- particularly flexible packaging. Still, prospects will benefit from a rebound in nondurable goods output, expanded opportunities in carryout food applications, and paper-based packaging’s appeal as part of sustainability efforts. Set-up box demand will also see relatively slow increases based on competition from less costly alternatives such as folding cartons and plastic containers. Ongoing demand will be helped by an improved outlook for discretionary spending and set-up boxes’ entrenched position as upscale packaging for premium confectionery products and fragrances.

Food & Beverages market to remain dominant

Food and beverages, which accounted for 50 percent of total box demand in 2013, are the largest single box market. Gains will be similar to the overall average and will be supported by accelerated growth in output of food and beverages along with rising demand for value added box types such as display ready and moisture-resistant boxes. Demand for boxes in nonfood nondurables uses comprised 30 percent of total demand in 2013. Among segments of this market, chemicals and pharmaceuticals will post above average growth while paper and publishing applications will advance more slowly.