Data This Week Will Tell Us More About Weather Impact

The January employment report showed little, if any, impact from the extreme winter weather on hiring trends. But snowflakes may show up on other economic reports out in the coming week.

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On Thursday, the Commerce Department will report January retail sales. Auto makers have reported that wintry weather held down demand for vehicles. Did storms also keep other shoppers at home and away from stores?

Economists seem to think that was the case, since the median forecast for last month’s retail sales calls for a 0.1% slip in total sales and a small 0.1% gain when vehicles are excluded.

Friday’s industrial-production report may also be skewed by weather. Economists think total industrial production increased 0.3% in January, but look for utility output to lead the gain. Households turned up the thermostat during days with subfreezing temperatures.

Not all the report will have weather impacts. Another report of interest will be Tuesday’s Job Opening and Labor Turnover survey. The Jolts data for December will explain why that month’s payrolls increased so mildly: Was it a drop in gross hiring or a jump in layoffs?

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen has mentioned the report as a signal for labor-market health, which means the financial markets will pay closer attention to it.

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