Bears vs Lions

The first-place Chicago Bears go for their fifth straight win when they visit the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. It’s a 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff from Ford Field. Chicago handled Minnesota, 25-20, on Sunday night to improve to 7-3 under first-year coach Matt Nagy, extending its NFC North lead to 1.5 games. However, they’ll likely be without quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who’s doubtful with a shoulder injury, and will instead turn to veteran Chase Daniel. Meanwhile, Detroit snapped a three-game skid with a 20-19, gut-check win over visiting Carolina, but will be without wide receiver Marvin Jones (knee). Chicago is a three-point road favorite, with the over-under for total points set at 43.5 in the latest Bears vs. Lions odds. Before you make any Bears vs. Lions picks, see what NFL guru Larry Hartstein picked.

SportsLine’s senior analyst and resident Bears expert is 12-6 in his past 18 against-the-spread picks involving Chicago, including telling his followers to back the Bears (-6.5) when the Lions visited Soldier Field in Week 10. “Khalil Mack is coming back and the Bears are going to keep Matthew Stafford under duress. Lay it,” Hartstein wrote. The result: Mack had two of Chicago’s six sacks as the Bears rolled.

It was another easy cash for Hartstein, who’s a stunning 35-16 on all NFL point-spread picks this season. Anyone who has followed him is way, way up.

Now, Hartstein has pounced on what he calls a mistake in the Lions vs. Bears spread for Thanksgiving (stream live on fuboTV). He’s sharing his pick only at SportsLine.

Hartstein knows the Bears have won and covered four straight, including divisional showdowns against the Vikings and Lions, behind a ferocious defense. Chicago leads the NFL with 27 takeaways (18 interceptions, nine fumble recoveries) and ranks fourth in points allowed (19.5). Mack has eight sacks, five forced fumbles and an INT despite missing two games.

Daniel knows the offensive system from his time with Nagy in Kansas City. The Bears signed him to a two-year, $10 million deal in March, and flanking him in the backfield will be two very capable running backs in Jordan Howard (five rushing touchdowns) and the versatile Tarik Cohen (three receiving scores).

But just because the Bears have positioned themselves atop the NFC North doesn’t mean they’ll cover in Detroit, where Chicago is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight visits.

The Lions always play inspired football on Thanksgiving, and the 2018 version carries momentum from its scintillating 20-19 home upset of Carolina. With just over one minute left, Detroit successfully defended a two-point conversion attempt to register another huge home win after also knocking off Green Bay and New England at Ford Field this season.

In fact, Detroit has covered five of its past seven home games and four of its last five Thanksgiving NFL games.

Stafford is completing over 66 percent of his throws and has seven multi-touchdown performances this season. And he’ll be highly confident against Chicago, with Detroit having won eight of the last 10 meetings.

We can tell you Hartstein is leaning Over, but his much stronger play is against the spread. He’s isolated misleading information that’s caused a mistake in this spread.