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Ford will shut down its St. Thomas Assembly Plant in 2011 and the workers can do little to stop it, their national president says.

The Canadian Auto Workers (CAW) union and Ford of Canada are in talks on a concessionary collective agreement to cut Ford's costs, a step the union is willing to take if Ford brings new investment and jobs to Canada. But that won't be in St. Thomas, CAW president Ken Lewenza said Tuesday.

"They will not invest in the plant. Ford is determined to close St. Thomas," he said. "They told us they are going to close the plant. They do not have product after 2011 and there are no plans to give us a product.

"They do not see a future in St. Thomas. That is their terminology."

Closing the huge plant would add 1,500 job losses to the hard-hit St. Thomas-Southwold township area, where manufacturing has taken a beating in the recession. Ford has been the largest employer since Sterling Truck in St. Thomas closed in March, cutting 2,000 workers.

"I am not sure if we are at the bottom yet, but I feel like I am in an elevator falling down a shaft here," said Bob Hammersley, chief executive of the St. Thomas and District Chamber of Commerce. "I just hope there is a spring down there somewhere."

Opened in 1967, the region's first modern car factory, the sprawling Ford plant has cranked out a wide range of vehicles -- from the Ford Pinto to the Ford Escort, and the big Crown Victoria, Mercury Grand Marquis and Lincoln Town Car sedans it still builds.

Workers will continue to fight for the jobs in case there's a glimmer of hope, said Scott Smith, chairman of CAW Local 1520 at the plant.

"I am not giving up -- they (Ford) have not said publicly it is closing. They have said there is no product there after 2011," he said. "My gut is telling me we have a very serious situation here ... . there will be a lot of pain that goes along with this."

Ford has said it needs the same cuts to its union contract given to General Motors and Chrysler, which received federal and provincial loans to keep them from bankruptcy on the condition they get a less costly deal from their workforces.

Ford did not request government loans.

GM and Chrysler, in exchange for cost-cutting measures, have pledged new product for Ontario to maintain its manufacturing footprint. If Ford doesn't keep up its manufacturing presence in Canada, it won't get union concessions, Lewenza said.

"We have said to Ford, 'give us a similar footprint.' They said 'no', " said Lewenza. "They could be the smallest auto manufacturer of the five in Canada at a time (when) they are increasing sales."

Chrysler makes more than 20% of its North American vehicle production in Canada and GM less than 20%. The ratio at Ford is about 14%. But when St. Thomas shuts down, that will drop to about 10% -- lower than at Honda and Toyota, said Lewenza.

Ford spokeswoman Lauren More said the company's position on the plant's future has not changed.

"We announced that the St. Thomas assembly plant would continue to manufacture its current products until 2011 and that there are no new products identified" after that, she said in a statement. "Beyond that, it's not productive to speculate."

Bob Wheeler, St. Thomas's director of economic development, said the city is trying to diversify its economy away from manufacturing.

"We're working hard, looking at other opportunities like green-collar iobs and food processing. We have our board working strategically, looking at other opportunities," he said. "We will come back."

The impact of a Ford closing would be felt beyond St. Thomas because its workers are spread equally across the region, he added.

"It is a kick for St. Thomas, but a slap for the entire region of southern Ontario," Hammersley said.

Recently, St. Thomas also lost Walker Transport -- bought by a Guelph firm -- and its 120 jobs.

"It is unfortunate but this is not really a surprise," said Tony Faria, an automotive analyst and business professor at the University of Windsor. "St. Thomas is geared to building large, rear-wheel drive vehicles and these are not the cars that are selling well now. They simply do not need that product."

Ford has also invested in its Oakville assembly plant, which now makes four vehicles, and has pledged to reopen an engine plant in Windsor and keep another engine plant there operating.

St. Thomas makes the Crown Victoria, Grand Marquis and Lincoln Town Car vehicles and production has topped about 100,000 units. The Crown Vic is sold to police and taxi fleets, but Ford has been pushing the Taurus as its replacement vehicle for fleet sales.