There's a big story in Barron's this weekend titled The Worst of Times to Buy Stocks?, which highlights the gloomy warnings of well-known investor John Hussman and technical guy Walter J. Zimmermann Jr.

Hussman's bearishness is well known, but the article by Randall W. Forsyth boils down Hussman's bearishness to four criteria:

 the Standard & Poor's 500 trading at more than 8% above its 52-week exponential moving average

 the S&P 500 up more than 50% from its four-year low

 the "Shiller P/E," based on the cyclically adjusted trailing 10-year earnings, developed by Yale economist Robert Shiller, greater than 18; it's currently 22

 the 10-year Treasury yield higher than six months earlier

 the Investors Intelligence's bullish advisory sentiment over 47%, and bearishness under 25%; in the latest data, the numbers were 47.9% bulls and 26.6% bears

Apparently all those conditions are nearly in place now, as they were in 1987, 2000, and 2007.

Meanwhile, Zimmerman agrees with all that, plus he cites the inevitability of a market decline owing to rising taxes, austerity, too much bullishness, and gas prices. He sees a "perfect storm" manifesting itself within days.

Apparently all those conditions are nearly in place now, as they were in 1987, 2000, and 2007.

Not sure I buy that. 1987, 2000 and 2007 came after prolonged market boom. He's arguing that rapid rise in the market is itself an indicator of an impending crash -- that's only the case if the economy doesn't recover as the market is anticipating.

5
posted on 03/11/2012 2:36:47 PM PDT
by Alter Kaker
(Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)

But the market is up you say, yeah its up using billions in printed money in the hands of corrupted bankers, investors and their cronies. The world is now flooded with fake and faux money. The game is so rigged and now even the house is starting to lose. Hell half the states are in worst financial condition than Greece.

When the whole thing tanks as it will what do you think the entiled class will do when they cant get their cell phones, their food stamps and EBT cards, rent vouchers and so forth.

What we will see is a much more violent version of Argentina, (checkout what is going on in Greece).

American has an even a larger entitlement minded population and much more violent and armed onen than Argentina or Greece.

I see many many small business wiped out by flash mob looting, and see rape, robbery and murder for murder sake. Many of these yutes will think no more about killing you than most people think about stepping on a roach. That will be the test of many. Most preppers I know are Christian people and they will hesitate to do what they might have to do to stop the yutes. On the other hand the yutes wont think twice nor lose a minute of sleep, in fact they will smile and laugh about it.

Think of this quote which is one of my favorites:

Star Trek: Deep Space Nine: The Siege of AR-558 (#7.8) (1998)
Quark: Let me tell you something about Hew-mons, Nephew. Theyre a wonderful, friendly people, as long as their bellies are full and their holosuites are working. But take away their creature comforts, deprive them of food, sleep, sonic showers, put their lives in jeopardy over an extended period of time and those same friendly, intelligent, wonderful people... will become as nasty and as violent as the most bloodthirsty Klingon. You dont believe me? Look at those faces. Look in their eyes.

On top of all who knows how many saboteurs (Islamic, Chinese etc) and sleepers have crossed our borders and are now just waiting to cause havoc.

For those who are just starting or are old hands at prepping you may find my Preparedness Manual helpfull. You can download it at:

NOTE! THIS IS A FREE DOWNLOAD. I DO NOT MAKE ONE CENT OFF MY PREPAREDNESS MANUAL!

For those of you who havent started already its time to prepare almost past time maybe. You needed to be stocking up on food guns, ammo, basic household supplies like soap, papergoods, cleaning supplies, good sturdy clothes including extra socks, underwear and extra shoes and boots, a extra couple changes of oil and filters for your car, tools, things you buy everyday start buying two and put one up.

As the LDS say When the emergency is upon us the time for preparedness has past.

Or as the bible says: A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.
NIV Proverbs 22:3

No one this side of God knows whether the stock market is going up or down. Some of the reasons posted for a crash appear to be pure BS. One example is the 10 year bond being at a higher interest rate than it was 6 months ago. That bond has been fluctuating slightly below and above a 2% yield for many months now, and that rate is absurdly low and will remain so as long as the Fed wants to have easy money.

As for comparing the current market to 4 years ago, we were heading full force into a major recession and hitting bottom. As for the S&P, the Price Earnings ratio is still a good bit below the historical average.

So, I do not buy into this nonsense. Now, if Israel attacks Iran, or if Obama sends US troops into Syria, then the market will drop big time. This market is more subject to the influence of extraneous forces. All that being said, the market could go up or it could go down a little or a lot, or it could go sideways. As Tonto used to say to the Lone Ranger, “Quien sabe?”

Under ordinary circumstances, I would agree: both technical indicators and market fundamentals (insert laugh track here) presage a significant downturn in the markets. But neither matter now. All that matters is the Fed and its $5 trillion liquidity injection, as happily ingested by the HFT machines and their programmed bid algorithms. And so, equities will likely continue to rise on shrinking volume and Hopium.

But - yes- the ride will come to an end when Thelma and Louise (Ben and Timmy) hit the gas one last time, and join hands over the cliff. When? I don't know. Late summer, perhaps. In any event, the "market" is no longer a market - it's a casino, and a bankrupt casino at that.

18
posted on 03/11/2012 4:26:05 PM PDT
by andy58-in-nh
(America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)

In the words of every stock market analyst Ive ever heard: this could happen, then again, it might not.

I read Hussman's weekly commentary. He doesn't say that it is going to happen, but conditions are such that his alarm bells are going off. I wouldn't exactly call him a perma-bear. At current stock market levels, he thinks the stock market will return somewhere around 4.5% per year over the next 10 years in a non linear fashion..

I read Hussman's weekly commentary. He doesn't say that it is going to happen, but conditions are such that his alarm bells are going off. I wouldn't exactly call him a perma-bear. At current stock market levels, he thinks the stock market will return somewhere around 4.5% per year over the next 10 years in a non linear fashion..

Unfortunately, it's the non-linear bit that'll kill ya.

24
posted on 03/11/2012 5:01:29 PM PDT
by Oceander
(TINSTAAFL - Mother Nature Abhors a Free Lunch almost as much as She Abhors a Vacuum)

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