Battle of the skies leads inevitably to fatal fallout on the ground

April 3 2003

The market site where a missile killed 17 people.Photo: AFP/Karim Sahib

Civilian deaths have both sides pointing the finger, writes the Herald's Paul McGeough in Baghdad.

A lethal cat-and-mouse struggle in the skies over Baghdad implicates US as much as Iraqi forces in errant missile strikes that claimed the lives of almost 80 civilian shoppers in suburban markets in Baghdad last week.

Both sides were quick to blame the other for the death of 17 innocent non-combatants at the Al Sha'ab marketplace on Wednesday and, 48 hours later, the death of 62 people in the predominantly Shiite shantytown of Al Shualla.

As the war has progressed, the risk of death or injury to Iraqi civilians has risen dramatically - first by the shrapnel and debris from cruise and Tomahawk missile strikes, and the fall to earth of the Iraqi anti-aircraft fire they provoked; then errant missiles; and, in the wake of a suicide attack that killed four American soldiers on Saturday, the US adoption of a shoot-to-kill policy for even mildly suspect Iraqi non-combatants.

Reporters who were allowed to visit the marketplaces several hours after the blasts came away puzzled - they anticipated the major structural damage that a powerful cruise or Tomahawk warhead might cause. Instead they found high casualty figures but surprisingly small impact craters and minimal structural damage to buildings.

And while they came away, listening to US denials that these might have been American strikes, they heard claims from within the Pentagon that errant Iraqi surface-to-air missiles were a more likely cause of the blasts; and allegations from within the exiled Iraqi community that Saddam Hussein was capable of attacking his own people for the propaganda advantage of blaming the carnage on the US.

Iraqi officials erupt with anger at such allegations, claiming that the "criminal" US-led bombardment of the city and the nation is the only wrongdoing that warrants examination.

Damage at the blast scenes is consistent with the small, high-speed missiles used by the US to strike against Iraqi air-defence radars and mobile missile launchers. They are known as HARMs - high-speed anti-radiation missiles.

In a confused coalition response to the Al Sha'ab strike, the US initially denied that it had aircraft in the area

but later admitted it did have planes over Baghdad, hunting nine mobile missile units.

Iraqi defence officials reportedly claimed early in 2000 that they could render HARMs impotent.

The HARM can seek its radar target only while the radar is active.

But if the radar is switched off after the missile is launched, the HARM can go out of control, losing its ability to steer accurately to the target.

The HARM's 68 kilogram warhead is designed to fragment into tiny pieces to tear apart radar dishes and other fragile electronic equipment. That is not inconsistent with the effect on the Baghdad marketplaces - frail human bodies were torn apart, and buildings and other structures were charred and their contents scattered, but they were not demolished.

Despite US claims that an investigation would take some time, and possibly not until the US-led forces were in control of Baghdad and thus able to inspect the scenes, the Herald was told that it would be relatively simple to establish if HARMs were involved. It needed only to establish the time that any HARMs were fired with the time of the marketplace strikes - these missiles take only seconds to arrive at their target.