US government drops two-state commitment

Event

The first weeks of Donald Trump's term as US president have confirmed Palestinian fears about his policies towards Palestine.

Analysis

Mr Trump's statements on the election campaign trail and during the transition process, including about relocating the US embassy to Jerusalem, had prompted concerns that his policies might further marginalise Palestinians and their aspirations for statehood. Fears grew during the transition period as he called for a veto to a UN Security Council resolution criticising Israeli settlements and nominated individuals close to Israel's right-wing settlement movement to key positions, such as ambassador to Israel. His first weeks in office have confirmed these fears and in some regards he has gone even further than expected.

In a meeting with the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, on February 15th, he dropped the US commitment to a two‑state solution, something that has been a consistent policy of all US administrations for a quarter of a century. He was also extremely weak in his response to an intense programme of settlement expansion and regularisation of the status of existing, unauthorised building by Israel, initiated since he entered office. Whereas previous US administrations have firmly condemned settlement expansion, Mr Trump merely suggested that Mr Netanyahu "hold back on settlements for a little bit".

In other moves, Mr Trump froze a US$221m USAID payment to the Palestinian Authority, which had been approved but then blocked by Congressional Republicans until Barack Obama released the funds in one of his final executive orders as president. The US's new ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, also opposed the appointment of Salam Fayyad, the widely respected former Palestinian prime minister, as UN envoy to Libya. The US State Department had initially approved Mr Fayyad's appointment, but then Ms Haley opposed it, apparently after some members of the administration complained about giving a high-profile role to a Palestinian. Ms Haley presented the opposition as an indication of support for Israel, even though the Libyan conflict has no direct relevance for Israel. Other UN Security Council members, including the UK and France, have supported Mr Fayyad.

Impact on the forecast

The prospects for progress towards peace were not strong before Mr Trump's inauguration, but they have further deteriorated. There is a heightened possibility of a new cycle of violence, as Israel feels empowered to push ahead with hardline policies and Palestinian hopelessness intensifies; we will factor this in to our forecasts.