INDIA RECAPTURES TITLE OF WORLD’S FASTEST GROWING MAJOR ECONOMY OUTSTANDING OUTLOOK FOR RULING PARTY

Multiple forecasts now predict the 2018 Indian economy will grow at better than 7%, possibly even 7.5%. With China still forecast to grow at about 6.7%, India has regained the lead after two years. 2016’s hapless currency demonetization lowered growth to below 6% by some measures, and the overly-complicated introduction of a national Goods and Services Tax early in 2017 did not help. But those bygones are now gone.

The next national elections are next year. In 2014 the BJP party won the first absolute majority in the lower house of Parliament in 30 years. They are on track to repeat in 2019. India is a federal system with, currently, 29 states. In 2014 the BJP controlled only six of those states. Today, thanks in part to a very determined ground game, the BJP now controls or is in partnership in 22 states. This bodes well for the BJP’s future, because the upper house of Parliament, which can delay legislation almost indefinitely, is chosen by the state governments. If the BJP wins the national elections next year, it probably won’t be too many more years until it controls the upper house, too.