French winter wheat reported at 77% good/excellent Warm temps and limited moisture have been boosting spring progress for many parts of the EU.

FSU conditions remain good, with forecast unthreatening for the next few weeks.

Canadian Prairies and US Northern Plains remain snow covered following recent storms, delaying plantings. It’s not believed to be critically late at this stage however.

BOTTOM LINE:

Weather continues to principally shape direction, as US HRW dryness and Corn Belt Planting delays occupy much of the trade focus. Improved weather outlook for both instigated the sell-off last week. Perception remains that if US HRW remains the only crop issue this season, markets will struggle to justify current levels.

That said, markets will trade the story and if Southern Plains dryness persists and Corn-Belt planting delays are exacerbated, then expect markets to remain underpinned.

In short, weather led volatility should be the theme of the next few weeks, with all eyes on US conditions in particular. Geo-politics/currency will continue to be monitored closely however.