LIVE MARKETS-Brexit: UK assets miss out on global economy optimism

Reuters Staff

14 Min Read

* European stocks rise to 1-week high
* Earnings boost Airbus, Aegon, Ipsen
* Nestle falls on earnings disappointment
Feb 15 - Welcome to the home for real time coverage of European equity
markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen
Reid. Reach her on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves:
helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
BREXIT: UK ASSETS MISS OUT ON GLOBAL ECONOMY OPTIMISM (1459 GMT)
Investors are increasingly confident in the global economy but are
increasingly prone to ditch UK assets, State Street's latest "Brexometer" survey
shows.
"While a rising tide is supposed to lift all boats, the weight of Brexit
uncertainty is now suppressing, although not yet submerging, attitudes toward UK
Assets", writes Michael Metcalfe, head of global macro strategy.
"More than 54 percent of Brexometer respondents were positive on medium-term
(three to five year) global growth prospects, while 23 percent (up from 18
percent in Q4) suggested they would reduce their holdings of UK assets in the
coming six months," the report reads.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
WHY MARKETS LOOK COMPLACENT ABOUT ITALY'S ELECTIONS (1446 GMT)
Several analysts believe that an Italian grand coalition is the best vote
outcome for financial markets. As a grand coalition is also the most likely
scenario, it's no wonder investors appear complacent about political risk in
Italy, even though the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement is the leading party
in opinion polls.
Berenberg estimates a 70 percent probability of an Italian government
supported by a grand coalition of centre-right and centre-left parties.
"A technocrat-led grand coalition should enable the structural reform
process and economic recovery to continue, allowing for stable inflation, a
falling budget deficit and a narrowing of the bond spread with Germany from the
current 130bp," they write in a note published today.
And here's how a London-based hedge fund manager sees it: "I must say people
don't really care about Italy's elections... the 5 Star Movement already last
year hinted around that an exit from the euro was not feasible."
That being said, we must recall that some other hedge funds like Bridgewater
have opened short positions on Italian stocks including banks as the March 4
election date approaches.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
EARLY AFTERNOON SNAPSHOT: EUROPE AT 1-WEEK HIGH, VOLATILITY IN CHECK (1341
GMT)
European shares are bouncing for a second day and with futures pointing to a
positive open on Wall Street and volatility under control, the STOXX 600 is
cruising ahead, staying at one-week highs, up 0.7 percent. Here's how we stand
on European equity markets with less than an hour left before U.S. markets open.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
WHY DID THE MARKET SHRUG OFF U.S. INFLATION DATA? (1102 GMT)
After a correction triggered by wage growth numbers indicating inflation was
building, yesterday's U.S. inflation figure was hotly anticipated.
But all the anxiety dissipated rapidly after a sharp dip when inflation came
in higher than expected, and stocks swung back like nothing had happened, and
are rising higher today. Here are a few takes on this mysterious bounceback.
"You would have expected Wednesday's inflation figures to trigger another
really big down day. But it didn't, and for me that's a clear indication that
inflation is not as big a threat as people made it out to be over the past
couple of weeks," says Lukas Daalder, chief investment officer at Robeco.
"One of the key factors that was seen to be pretty risky all of a sudden is
not seen as risky - this is an indication the market wants to go higher and at
the moment the 'buy the dip' force is still very very strong," he added.
"2017 was a very momentum-driven market, and if that's still the case, which
after yesterday it appears to be, then we will probably see new highs before too
long."
Another element driving markets up could be investors feeling more confident
having invested in some insurance against a further sell-off.
"After the carnage the week before, the market has a lot more downside
protection," says a trader. "People would have bought downside options which
means there is not so much urgency to sell."
UBS Wealth Management's CIO today echoes others in the market who've warned
not to take these monthly releases too seriously as they can be warped by
seasonal factors and adjustments. "One-off data releases tend to be 'noisy' and
may not indicate a change in the trend."
(Helen Reid)
*****
NESTLE'S FALL HIGHLIGHTS PRESSURE ON HIGHLY VALUED COMPANIES (1045 GMT)
Nestle is the biggest negative weight to the STOXX this
morning, its shares down as much as 2.8 percent to a 10-month low. Its update
clearly disappointed but its share price reaction also highlights that highly
valued companies like the Swiss food giant need to deliver more to keep
investors happy in such markets. Anyway here are some more granular views from
the sell-side views on what went wrong.
Baader Helvea: "Weak 4Q organic growth and the bare minimum of strategic
decisions. Overall rather a weak set of figures, in our view. The strategic
transformation looks on track, but those hoping for acceleration in speed might
be disappointed. In a volatile stock market environment this might bring
short-term pressure on the share price".
Zürcher Kantonalbank: "The quality of the margin trend is disappointing,
with savings in marketing and a disappointing trend for the gross profit margin.
Given the stock's higher valuation compared with its peers, we anticipate the
share price will react negatively".
But UBS sees the glass half full: "While we think these results & guidance
are not enough to re-rate the shares, we highlight some positives that should
limit downside: Nestlé expects US tax reform to result in a 200bps reduction in
its tax rate from 2018 onwards; it is reviewing the strategic options for Gerber
Insurance business, signalling more portfolio management to come; and (3) Nestlé
does not intend to increase its L'Oréal stake and will not renew the shareholder
agreement with L'Oréal to keep its options open in the future"
Nestle is trading at a price of 20.1 times its earnings, above its 10-year
average and above the PE multiple of peers Unilever and Danone
, as you see in this chart. goo.gl/q9ZyBJ
(Danilo Masoni)
****
WANNA BUY CHEAP EUROS? HOW ABOUT SPANISH EQUITIES? (1026 GMT)
Here's the pitch from Intl FCStone: if you are bullish on the euro, a
cheaper way than bonds or cash to get into that trade is to buy European
equities, in particular Spanish stocks.
"Spain looks particularly interesting because its forward P/E has fallen by
18.5 percent since the index peaked in May. Spanish equities trade for 12.4
times forward earnings, matching the levels observed during most of the
sovereign debt crisis," strategist Vincent Deluard writes.
Here's his chart:
Deluard also points out that while European equities did not underperform
during the recent correction, they did not match their U.S. peers during the
preceding "melt-up".
Have a look at the STOXX versus the S&P 500:
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
OPENING SNAPSHOT: IT'S ALL ABOUT EARNINGS (0825 GMT)
European shares are on the up in early trading as well-received earnings
updates send shares in Airbus, Ipsen and Aegon to
the top of the STOXX, while a broader bounce in commodities-linked firms and
banks is also adding to gains.
A fall for Nestle is weighing on the Swiss Index, while the
bond proxy-type sectors are all on the backfoot as bond yields continue to march
higher.
Here's your opening snapshot:
(Kit Rees)
*****
WHAT'S ON THE RADAR FOR THE EUROPEAN OPEN (0741 GMT)
European stocks were set to extend their rally on Wednesday as equity
investors around the world shrugged off a spike in U.S. inflation which had
caused a sharp but short-lived drop in stock markets in the previous session.
Futures indicated gains of 0.5 to 0.8 percent across Europe’s major benchmarks.
A raft of earnings to digest today including heavy hitters Nestle and
Airbus. Nestle said it had no plans to increase its stake in L'Oreal, and a
trader said the comments had triggered speculation Nestle could sell its stake.
The Swiss food giant’s shares were indicated down 1.6 percent in pre-market.
Airbus shares were seen up 3 to 4 percent after profits for Europe’s largest
aerospace group came in higher than expected, although it took a new 1.3 billion
euro hit on its A400M military transport plane.
With the rand hitting three-year highs against the dollar after
President Jacob Zuma resigned, stocks exposed to South Africa could get a boost.
And autos stocks could gain from data showing sales of passenger cars in Europe
rose twice as fast in January as in the whole of 2017.
(Helen Reid)
*****
HOT EUROPEAN HEADLINES (0736 GMT)
Once more it's set to be a busy day of earnings, with numbers from the likes
of Nestle, Airbus and Schneider Electric to keep traders busy. Below is a
round-up of this morning's key European company and macro headlines.
Nestle disappoints in 2017, no plan to increase L'Oreal stake
Airbus takes 1.3 bln euros charge on A400M military plane
Schneider Electric ends 2017 on high note despite currency
headwinds
Capgemini annual revenue beats on strong Digital and Cloud
business
Norwegian Air reports bigger-than-expected Q4 loss
Aegon reports Q4 earnings above analysts' expectations
Straumann FY revenue hit $1.08 bln on higher sales
Insurer NN Group's Q4 profit jumps on Delta Lloyd takeover
Insurer Lancashire warns of tough year ahead, swings to loss
Anglo-Dutch RELX to end dual-company structure, profit rises 6 pct
Britain's ConvaTec 2017 profit down 3.3 percent on supply issues
Lloyds axes $140 bln Standard Life Aberdeen contract
European car sales up 6.8 pct in January, led by French gains
French unemployment falls to lowest level since 2009
Amazon says to create 2,000 jobs in France in 2018
Hedge fund Bridgewater makes $22 bln bet against European firms
ANALYSIS-Sorry, not sorry: Wall Street not quitting 'vol' products
(Kit Rees)
*****
FUTURES POINT TO STRONG OPEN FOR EUROPEAN STOCKS (0711 GMT)
Stock futures have opened robustly higher - up 0.5 to 0.8 percent - across
the major European benchmarks, indicating yesterday's rally will be extended.
German bund futures have opened lower, however, as yields continue to rise
across markets.
Looks like JP Morgan may have been prescient in its Monday note arguing "The
negative correlation between stock and bond prices is not dead, in our view, it
will quickly reestablish itself and ultimately prove a valuation cushion in case
of further equity weakness."
(Helen Reid)
*****
ECB POLICYMAKERS, EARNINGS IN FOCUS (0635 GMT)
After yesterday's U.S. inflation data, European investors will be focusing
on, among other things, speeches by ECB policymakers Praet, Mersch and
Lautenschlaeger.
"We think they might signal that the recent market turbulence is not a
source of concern given the strength of the current expansion," write Societe
Generale analysts. "They are also likely to reiterate that the asset purchase
programme will continue until September this year and that what happens beyond
then is entirely data dependent."
A heavy slate of earnings today to keep traders and investors occupied as
well: Airbus announces it's taking a 1.3 billion euros charge on its
A400M military plane, clouding its better-than-expected profits, while budget
airline Norwegian Air reports a bigger than expected Q4 loss. Other big
companies reporting today include Nestle and Capgemini.
In other results:
Schneider Electric ends 2017 on high note despite currency headwinds
Straumann FY revenue hit $1.08 bln on higher sales
Insurer NN Group's Q4 profit jumps on Delta Lloyd takeover
(Helen Reid)
*****
MORNING CALL: INFLATION? WHAT INFLATION? (0616 GMT)
Good morning and welcome to Live Markets.
European stocks are called to open strongly higher today, following the lead
of Asian markets which gained after Wall Street shrugged off a spike in
inflation many had feared would derail equities once again.
Asian shares rose overnight after U.S. stocks took the inflation data in
their stride, with the Dow Jones up 1 percent and the S&P 500 up 1.3 percent.
Bonds plunged, however, as Treasury yields jumped, in anticipation of more rapid
U.S. interest rate hikes.
Currency movements could colour European trading today, with the euro
hitting a 10-day high against the dollar as the greenback suffered further
losses.
Spreadbetters call the DAX 132 points higher at 12,470.9, the CAC 40 up 50
points at 5,215.2, and the FTSE 100 35 points higher at 7,248.8.
(Helen Reid)
*****