A Look at CAA Realignment

In recent weeks, we’ve seen all sorts of CAA realignment action hitting the public. But maybe “action” is too strong a word as it’s been more of a political spin game. First we had news that Georgia St. was on the Sun Belt radar…which then turned into “the Sun Belt had agreed to a vote on a Sun Belt invitation to Georgia St. in which it’s members were expected to approve the vote and that Georgia St. was expected to accept”. With Georgia St. looking to upgrade to FBS football, and needing an existing FBS conference to extend them an invitation for that to happen, the Sun Belt is a logical move (since Georgia St.’s, top destination, CUSA, seems to have other plans).

On the other side of the CAA conference, the basketball-only members, you have some more potential movement.

Both George Mason and VCU are rumored to be in contact with the A-10 about joining. The likely scenario would be Butler invited to replace Temple as the 14th member, with GMU and VCU joining as the 15th and 16th member.

The rationale is simple: with Temple leaving the A10, Philadelphia is no longer the lodestone of the conference. To replace the success of Temple, the A10 needs a star, and Butler, making it to back to back finals until this year, fits the mold. The Indianapolis based school would also serve as a regional bridge to connect St. Louis with schools like Xavier and Dayton, in addition to adding a new market to the A10.

As for the benefits of GMU and VCU for the A10, the rationale is just as simple: with Richmond and George Washington already in the A10, adding GMU and VCU would solidify the DC/VA area as an A10 power base. GMU and VCU bring recent Final Four appearances, but it’s their ability to lock up the region as an A10 stronghold that bring even more benefits.

For GMU and VCU, a move to the A10 makes sense.

As it is now, it’s no lock in a given year that a CAA school that does not win the conference tournament, will get an NCAA at-large bid. We saw it again this year as #1 Drexel lost in the conference tournament, and was left out, sent to the NIT. Outside of GMU and VCU, only Old Dominion has been able to secure an at-large bid in recent years, at the peak of the CAA’s success. In the A10, in years in which GMU or VCU finish 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th in the A10 with a strong OOC schedule, they will
likely get an NCAA at-large bid. In the CAA, they have to win the CAA tournament.

For years it appeared that members such as GMU and VCU would be more content to stand put. But as the CAA has clearly defined itself as an FCS Football conference first, and a basketball conference second, despite all the success by non-football schools, one can see why GMU and VCU would have roaming eyes.

When the CAA last expanded, they invited Northeastern. The Boston school had lower ranked academics than many other candidates, worse resources and facilities than other candidates and less overall basketball success than even it’s neighbor, Boston University. But since Northeastern had football, and the CAA needed a 6th football member to join for all-sports in order to take over football sponsorship, Northeastern was selected. Fast forward and Northeastern and another school brought in right before Northeastern, Hofstra, have dropped football.

With Georgia St. as a threat to leave, the CAA is already looking at replacement schools. And at the top of the list, you aren’t going to see basketball powerhouses to improve the sport that GMU and VCU have been successful in. You’ll hear Appalachian St. as a target, a powerful FCS football school in North Carolina that has had less success in basketball. You’ll hear Stony Brook, the Long Island school from the America East. Stony Brook has had some success in basketball while in the lower ranked America East. But it’s their sponsorship of football that put them on the list. So to replace the Georgia St. loss (if/when it happens), it WILL be a football school selected…a move that does little to help schools like GMU and VCU.

For GMU and VCU, and even Georgia St., there are other internal CAA issues going on.

As news came out that GMU and VCU were considered A10 options, both schools have officially said they have had no conversions with the A10. And the A10 has said that they have had no conversations with either school. Then how has so much news made it out? Is it all made up? No. The source of some of the updates comes from some of the more reputable journalists in college sports. It’s because the A10 and the 2 schools were using a third party for their discussions. Such a process allows the A10, GMU and VCU all to claim that they have had no contact with each other, since contact can be defined as “direct contact”.

And when news broke about Georgia St. appearing to be heading to the Sun Belt, you had similar denials.

So we know Georgia St. needs an FBS conference invitation in order to upgrade to FBS, a goal of the school.

So why not show some excitement?

And if we know that GMU and VCU have had some level of contact with the A10, why the denials?

The answer is money.

The CAA will be distributing it’s NCAA revenue shares in July. If the schools planned on leaving early, they risk forfeiting that money.

And then there are the exit fee discussions.

The CAA is expected to discuss increasing the conference exit fees. It’s likely too late for any school to bluff their way through that process though. But if you have schools expected to leave, it makes the exit fee punishment more of an issue.

But the CAA exit fee discussions will be an interesting process. You have Georgia St. with one foot out the door. You have GMU and VCU as potentially looking to do the same, to move to the A-10. So you could look at a future exit fee vote, one that requires a 2/3 majority, and think that if there are 12 schools and only 3 potentially leaving, then a 9-3 vote would hurt Georgia St., GMU and VCU only.

But it’s no lock that the vote would be 9-3.

Georgia St.’s eventual defection from the CAA will mark the 5th football defection from CAA Football. You have Hofstra and Northeastern, all-sports members, that have dropped the sport. You have football-only members, Rhode Island, leaving for NEC football and UMass, who upgraded to FBS and joined the MAC. And with Georgia St. all but gone, it’s been a mass defection.

So what does that mean for the remaining CAA football schools?

You have Villanova, another football-only member, who has explored upgrading to FBS and joining the Big East. In fact, as part of them supporting the Temple all-sport addition into the Big East, the Big East agreed to give Villanova $3 million for their “upgrade exploration”.

And then you have the two power schools of CAA football: Delaware and JMU. Both schools have been the model for FCS football success, both on the field as well as in ticket sales and fan interest. Both schools have for years been considered logical FBS upgrade candidates as both already have the necessary infrastructure. And then there is ODU. Upon even starting their football program in recent years, they made it clear (likely to keep the fan support high) that they have FBS aspirations. Even schools like Hofstra have high hopes that one day the A-10 would invite them, especially with the new A-10 deal with the Barclay’s Center to host the conference basketball tournament in Brooklyn.

So, if you are all-sports CAA members Delaware, JMU, ODU or even Hofstra, why would you support a higher exit fee when you might have to pay it yourself? And if you’re a CAA Football member like Villanova, why would you support any potential changes to the CAA Football membership exit fees for that side of the conference (CAA Football is technically a separate conference from the primary CAA since all football members have equal voting rights)?

You likely wouldn’t.

Now on the football side, the biggest hangup when it comes to FCS to FBS upgrades, is again an NCAA rule stating that a school must have an invitation from an existing FBS conference in order to be permitted to upgrade to FBS.

If CUSA hadn’t put so much into an alliance or merger with the Mountain West conference, perhaps there would be some more room in a more eastern conference such as CUSA. If not CUSA, then the Sun Belt, assuming that CUSA added 4 replacement members from the Sun Belt. But as it appears now, CUSA and the MWC will have some sort of merger, with perhaps 4 schools added: Utah St., San Jose St. to the MWC side and FIU and North Texas to the CUSA side. The Sun Belt appears poised to add Georgia St. After that addition, Charlotte, UTSA and LA Tech would likely be the top candidates to join the Sun Belt. In the end, you’d have CUSA/MWC with 10 and 10 members for a total of 20 for football, and the Sun Belt would have 12 for football, 13 for other sports with UALR.

So if you’re Delaware, JMU or ODU, you have very few options in FBS. Which means these schools might favor a CAA exit fee raise.

However, there remains another option for those schools, albeit a long shot.

The MAC has just lost Temple, and now has 13 members with UMass. Per the UMass & MAC contract, the MAC can ask UMass to leave after 2 seasons if Temple were to leave. Since Temple did leave, that option is still on the table. But the MAC could also do something bold and extend further east and to the south with expansion to 16. With UMass as #13, the MAC could bring in Delaware, JMU and ODU for a total fo 16 members for football, splitting into (2) divisions of 8 schools. An eastern division could include: UMass, Buffalo, Delaware, ODU, JMU, Ohio, Akron, Kent St. Of course, potential FBS upgrades from the SoCon such as Appalachian St. and Georgia Southern could make this an even longer shot.

Again, this is a long shot.

So what can we expect to see from the CAA?

* Georgia St. leaves: CAA will likely first reach out to Appalachian State. If rejected, the CAA will turn to Stony Brook to replace Georgia St. as an all-sports member.

* If VCU or GMU join the A10: assuming Appalachian St. is out of the mix, and Stony Brook already in for Georgia St., then the CAA can use the departures as a way to strengthen their northern presence. Boston University can be brought in to serve as a travel partner for Northeastern, making those long trips for the southern schools to Boston more worthwhile by scheduling 2 games per trip north. The same benefit exists for trips to Hofstra, should Stony Brook be brought in.

* If Georgia St., VCU and GMU all leave: and assuming Appalachian St. is out of the mix, you’ve got Stony Brook and Boston University likely in. But there would still be the need for a 3rd replacement. That pool will be less attractive as candidates would be from a mix of schools such as:
– Albany (could potentially upgrade to play CAA Football)
– Coastal Carolina
– Hartford (to bridge Hofstra and Stonybrook to Boston University and Northeastern)
– College of Charleston (twice rejected CAA invitations, likely would do the same with GA St., VCU and GMU gone)
– UNCG
– Youngstown St. (football-only long shot candidate)
– UMBC (bit of a desperation candidate, but local nonetheless)
– Maine & UNH (a tandem, both are part of CAA Football..with Northeastern and Boston University in the mix, the pair is an option. The pair would fall into the “desperation candidate” pool, but in bringing both schools in with Stony Brook as the 3 replacements, the CAA would be at 12 total members, with 8 all-sports members sponsoring football in CAA Football).

Oddly, of the scenarios, it’s the one that most CAA fans would detest the most that would create the most stability, factoring in football playing members and regional fits:
CAA North: *Maine, *UNH, Northeastern, *Stonybrook, Hofstra, Drexel
CAA South: * Delaware, *Towson, *JMU, *ODU, *W&M, UNCW

And what if Georgia St., VCU and GMU leave but in the near future Delaware, JMU and ODU do as well for FBS? Well, that opens up many new options.

Likely, these 3 schools would join the MAC for football. But they’d need a basketball home. At this point, the CAA could just remain with it’s current members and drop football sponsorship. Remaining football members Richmond, William & Mary, and Towson could join the Patriot League. There is also the option, if Stony Brook remained in the America East (or returned) and Albany upgraded, that the America East could sponsor football. You’ve have Maine, UNH, Stony Brook and Albany from the America East. Others such as C. Connecticut St., URI, Bryant and others as football-only options.

No schools have officially left, and anything can happen. But things in the CAA are a bit tense right now, where a conference that in recent years sent 2 schools to the Final Four as a mid-major, is facing some potential radical changes.

I’m going to assume George Mason stays but ODU and VCU leaves and that CAA will be left with 9 members (4 play football). Here is my ideal expansion— 3 schools: Boston U., Stony Brook, Coastal Carolina.

Institute division play in Olympic sports–
North–Boston Univ., Northeastern, Hofstra, Stony Brook, Drexel, DelawareSouth–Towson, George Mason, James Madison, William & Mary, UNC Wilmington, Coastal CarolinaFor football there are 10 members when you throw in the affiliates. UNC Wilmington and the basketball schools stay happy

Hoya33

I am confused on your thinking.JMU would stay in the CAA for football and basketball there is no where else for them to go.Why would the conference disband?If VCU or GMU leave and I dont think they will in 2012-2013,maybe in 2014.but still not sure,. they will forfeit up to 2-3 mil and these 2 schools cannot afford that.They have both been to the final four but again they are still midmajors with midmajor budgets.The A10 does nothing for them,the A10 TV pacage will not be as good as the CAA,and next year when the A10 tourney for basketball moves to NYC it will fall flat on its face, as the city is Big East first(same week) and nothing else matters accept the Yankees or Knicks.The A10 in other sports not any where close to being better and the CAA women sports much better.So I am not buying this national media pressure that has been seen on this matter but being a person living in CAA country,if it does take place there will be 5-7 schools whom will suffer a demise of there whole D1 programs.

Tw123232

CAA will disband shortly. None of the remaining schools would make any sense once the dominos begin falling…..Georgia State gone. VCU gone. George Mason gone. Next goes W&M to the Patriot. JMU has been looking to leave for football and they already have the pieces in place to make the move. Now they’ll have added incentive. JMU gone. That leaves ODU as the only full member Virginia school, UNCW with no neighbors and logistical reason to remain in the CAA, Towson, Delaware, Drexel, Hofstra, Northeastern, all schools in the Northeast, with new incentive to pick up the pieces and restructure…adding some neighbors and stragglers. Realignment here we come.

Captain Marvy

I would actually go with a different replacement strategy if I was the CAA. Rather than waste time getting rejected by Appalachian State, or ignite an ugly public tug of war with the Southern Conference, I would take the path of least resistance and look for the scenario that has the most long range upside.

I would actually recommend Central Connecticut State as the replacement for Georgia State. This gives Northeastern a New England travel partner, one which plays football, and makes the Potomac River the dividing line between North and South again. Football-only status can go to Albany and Stony Brook.

This would put the CAA back at 12 for basketball, with 6 full-time football members, and 6 football-only members. It keeps Albany and Stony Brook together in the AEC for basketball alongside regional rivals like Maine and New Hampshire. It also prevents NY politicians from blocking a solo move by one school.

UNC Wilmington will cry like babies about being the sole Southern school again but let them go to the A-Sun if they don’t like it. The school is in an odd location and doesn’t have football. Not a good combination. Their travel partner will have to be ODU again, just like before 2005 when Northeastern and GSU joined.

http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

The days of using this type of rationale have passed…something we’ve seen with our own eyes in recent years. In fact, there are many who feel the time has come for basketball-only conferences to exist, since for many schools, basketball is the revenue producing sport. And if schools like Notre Dame & BYU can be split between football and basketball, if BSU and SDSU can be football only in the Big East, that it’s time for “like-minded” schools to be able to do the same in basketball.

It’s the “like-minded” that has changed so much. It used to mean schools that were public being with publics, private with privates. Rural state schools with other state schools while urban located schools with other urban located schools. But now, “like-minded” is about money.
You have a tier of schools existing now that have fan support, facilities, revenue streams and success that is closer to the BCS level schools. The kicker is that they are spread out into different conferences. In the A10, you have Xavier, St. Louis, Dayton and until next year, Temple. You also have Richmond who fits some of these criteria now. In the CAA you had GMU (will be a test in years 2 and 3 without Coach L anymore) and for 3 coaches now, you have VCU. You also have Butler in that mix in the Horizon and Creighton in the MVC. What these school shave in common is that the benefit by being in a basketball conference together. Despite the runs by GMU and VCU, the conference champion, Drexel, was left out of the tournament, with the CAA as a 1 bid conference. In the best year ever for the CAA, they got 3 bids. In the A10, it’s been almost double that. This past year the A10 had 3 bids with a 4th sneaking in. Yet, the A10 was very average this year in performance…no schools were superstars like in the 90’s, when the conference got 4-5 bids some years due to UMass being #1 in the country, increasing the value of the other schools. As for VCU and GMU, I think they’d be in the A10 yesterday if it weren’t for some factors. And why not? GMU is in the DC media market, VCU in the city of Richmond. You have GW in DC and Richmond in the city of Richmond as well. You have Xavier in Cincy, St. Joes and LaSalle in Philly, Dayton in Dayton, Charlotte in Charlotte, St. Louis in StL, Fordham in NYC, URI just outside Providence. Only UMass (amherst) and St. Bonaventure (Olean) are rural schools. So in the event that one needs another reason other than making more money, assuring a better chance of an at-large bid…you also have that these schools are mostly urban based schools, something GMU and VCU have in common.As for why I think VCU and GMU might not join:
1) same reason they should have: money.
If they leave before July, they lose this round of NCAA shares. But if they wait until July, sure, the $1.2 million exit fee can be quickly replaced in a year. But both schools also will forfeit their NCAA shares from the CAA through 2016. It adds up. Granted, they would make that money back in 3 years in the A10. But that is assuming the A10 remains as is. It DOES appear that will be the case, since a Big East split is not likely going to happen. What, 11 schools have been added to the Big East with the basketball schools approval since 2003. If a split were happening, it would have. But the basketball schools in the Big East need the football schools now more than ever.

http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

The days of using this type of rationale have passed…something we’ve seen with our own eyes in recent years. In fact, there are many who feel the time has come for basketball-only conferences to exist, since for many schools, basketball is the revenue producing sport. And if schools like Notre Dame & BYU can be split between football and basketball, if BSU and SDSU can be football only in the Big East, that it’s time for “like-minded” schools to be able to do the same in basketball.

It’s the “like-minded” that has changed so much. It used to mean schools that were public being with publics, private with privates. Rural state schools with other state schools while urban located schools with other urban located schools. But now, “like-minded” is about money.
You have a tier of schools existing now that have fan support, facilities, revenue streams and success that is closer to the BCS level schools. The kicker is that they are spread out into different conferences. In the A10, you have Xavier, St. Louis, Dayton and until next year, Temple. You also have Richmond who fits some of these criteria now. In the CAA you had GMU (will be a test in years 2 and 3 without Coach L anymore) and for 3 coaches now, you have VCU. You also have Butler in that mix in the Horizon and Creighton in the MVC. What these school shave in common is that the benefit by being in a basketball conference together. Despite the runs by GMU and VCU, the conference champion, Drexel, was left out of the tournament, with the CAA as a 1 bid conference. In the best year ever for the CAA, they got 3 bids. In the A10, it’s been almost double that. This past year the A10 had 3 bids with a 4th sneaking in. Yet, the A10 was very average this year in performance…no schools were superstars like in the 90’s, when the conference got 4-5 bids some years due to UMass being #1 in the country, increasing the value of the other schools. As for VCU and GMU, I think they’d be in the A10 yesterday if it weren’t for some factors. And why not? GMU is in the DC media market, VCU in the city of Richmond. You have GW in DC and Richmond in the city of Richmond as well. You have Xavier in Cincy, St. Joes and LaSalle in Philly, Dayton in Dayton, Charlotte in Charlotte, St. Louis in StL, Fordham in NYC, URI just outside Providence. Only UMass (amherst) and St. Bonaventure (Olean) are rural schools. So in the event that one needs another reason other than making more money, assuring a better chance of an at-large bid…you also have that these schools are mostly urban based schools, something GMU and VCU have in common.As for why I think VCU and GMU might not join:
1) same reason they should have: money.
If they leave before July, they lose this round of NCAA shares. But if they wait until July, sure, the $1.2 million exit fee can be quickly replaced in a year. But both schools also will forfeit their NCAA shares from the CAA through 2016. It adds up. Granted, they would make that money back in 3 years in the A10. But that is assuming the A10 remains as is. It DOES appear that will be the case, since a Big East split is not likely going to happen. What, 11 schools have been added to the Big East with the basketball schools approval since 2003. If a split were happening, it would have. But the basketball schools in the Big East need the football schools now more than ever.

http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

I can understand that if one is a fan of a CAA school, a school without football, that they could feel that way. However, one needs to just look at the most blatant of facts to see how clear the situation is:

In 2005, the CAA chose to expand. While it’s a mid-major conference that traditionally would not have top candidates as options, the CAA did have it’s choice of schools from conferences such as the America East. So when the CAA started looking north, and then into Boston, since the CAA is a “basketball conference” in your mind, they would take the best college basketball program available, right? Figure that if it’s a “basketball conference first” then the order of criteria would include strength of program, athletic facilities, media market penetration, academic rankings to name a few.

So it was an easy choice then. The CAA would invite Boston University.
* They had won 4 of the last 8 AE titles up until that year of 2005.
* They fall 2nd Boston College in the Boston market (fighting it out with Harvard in current day).
* They have excellent facilities via the Agganis Arena…so good that prior to the AE change of the championship game being at the highest seeds home venue, the conference championship was at BU.
* And for academics, Boston University being ranked #53 put them as the highest ranked academic school of those schools that would consider the CAA.
* And,

But something else happened.
Instead, the CAA selected Northeastern. The same Northeastern that hadn’t won the lowly AE since 1990…15 years prior. The same Northeastern that has next to no Boston market penetration when compared to BC, BU, Harvard and even UMass in Western MA as the flagship school of the state. As for basketball facilities, rather than a new arena like BU offered, NU offered an outdated 95 year old building that had last been renovated in 1982.But Northeastern had football. So the decision took all of about 30 seconds for the CAA…since the CAA makes it’s decisions with football as a priority.

In adding a 6th football school, the CAA was able to take sponsorship of the FCS football conference that had been the Yankee and then A10, similar to the Gateway and then MVFC setup, since there was no conference with the 6 school minimum to sponsor the sport.Northeastern has since dropped football, as as Hofstra. But the CAA was fortunate that ODU and GA State stepped up earlier to join the ranks of CAA all-sports members with football.

Make no mistake. In saying the CAA is a football conference first, it is not an insult. It is just a reality. When the conference urged GMU and VCU to add football, it should have been a sign. The fact that the CAA put in a clause into the membership charter, something approved by the non-CAA members (note that CAA Football members have full rights, not partial rights like many other football only members in other conferences), that if a CAA member adds football, they can join the CAA right away for football.

Now when it comes to success, CAA Football is clearly the top football conference, even with NU, Hofstra dropping football…even with URI downgrading…even with GA State leaving. Losing UMass hurts since they are a school that has won the conference before or represented the conference well (made it to the 2006 final). Basketball has had some success as well, with 2 schools advancing to the Final Four over the past decade. Now that success hasn’t turned into a plethora of at-large bids, but it’s certainly something that shows the CAA basketball strength.But when it comes to CAA conference membership, yes, it is a football-first conference. Northeastern would not have been invited over BU if that wasn’t the case. Once NU joined, it meant that the southern addition could be a non-football school, rather than say, having to add Coastal Carolina. Also note that GA St. was added without football ans after College of Charleston rejected the CAA again.As for your theory that the CAA is “basketball first”, then it should be a simple matter of looking at the facts in the form of the next CAA school to join.

If the CAA is basketball first, then a school like Boston University, another run at Charleston, an invite to Davidson, UNCG or another basketball school will be the next addition.But, with CAA Football being the priority, it’s my belief that the CAA will add a football member next. They will try for App St. If rejected by App St (and if GA Southern is not an option either) then they will go for either Stony Brook (if they want to go north) or be forced with Coastal Carolina (to appease UNCW).

But the next CAA school will be a football member and they will be an all-sports member…since the CAA needs 6 all-sports members with football in CAA Football in order to retain football sponsorship.

It doesn’t take away from their basketball abilities to recognize that the CAA membership decisions are driven by football. They have been since 2005 when they added NU and with the departure of GA State, football will drive the next decision as well.

If VCU and GMU leave too, the CAA moves made AFTER replacing GA State will likely be basketball decisions like adding BU, Davidson, etc as candidates.

NJDuke97

Why is the A-10 a good fit for George Mason and VCU again? Is it that two relatively large public universities in Virginia fit with smaller private schools the nearest of which is in Philadelphia? Is it that they have hit a ceiling playing in th CAA (The Final Four) that they will overcome in the vastly better A-10 (A-10 hasn’t had a final four team since Coach Cals UMass team)? I think it’s a good fit along with Butler because writers have deemed it to be but when you really think about it it isn’t a fit at all.

http://profile.yahoo.com/LLLVEJ42BAU2FGCJPA3WFOXAL4 Philip

I still don’t get the “CAA is a football conference first” nonsense. No it isn’t. It’s basketball… and then football.

GMU and VCU aren’t going to the A-10. The move isn’t a home run for either school.

And Northeastern has lower rated academics than other choices? Versus who? Adding the Ivy League? It’s ranked #62 in the country!

http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

The Charlotte to Sun Belt source is likely any of the published articles out there based on Sun Belt sources who said Charlotte and UTSA were the top Sun Belt candidates per their initial discussions. GA St hopped the list due to the CAA exit fee deadline, this weeks vote. With 2 SB schools expected to leave for CUSA/MWC, there are ample spots.

But as for the source, the person(s) is unnamed. But Brett Mcmurphy was the most prominent to report on Charlotte.

http://matt.peloquin.info Matt Peloquin

The Charlotte to Sun Belt source is likely any of the published articles out there based on Sun Belt sources who said Charlotte and UTSA were the top Sun Belt candidates per their initial discussions. GA St hopped the list due to the CAA exit fee deadline, this weeks vote. With 2 SB schools expected to leave for CUSA/MWC, there are ample spots.

But as for the source, the person(s) is unnamed. But Brett Mcmurphy was the most prominent to report on Charlotte.

Jeff89

Well, the whole reason I responded was after I read this from a WRBB sports blog:

“For various reasons, some more obvious than others, many of these schools have been dismissed as unlikely to leave their current affiliations (for the CAA). One source fully expects that UNC Charlotte will eventually join Georgia State in the Sun Belt”

I was completely puzzled who the blog-referenced “one source” was, before concluding it was collegesportsinfo.

The “various reasons, some more obvious than others” why Charlotte would not leave their current affiliation is simple: money. Why walk away from the A10 and their ncaa basketball units to the Sun Belt when it’s going to take several years of full recruiting classes to build up to 85 football scholarships, anyway?

The really curious part of your thought process is that you believe that Charlotte’s conference affiliation – if they don’t act in 2012 – will be stuck FOREVER. That’s a really odd belief for someone who runs a website based on an ever changing landscape.

Now there’s about a million different opinions on what schools should or shouldn’t do. Heck, I could probably find someone on a messageboard somewhere who believes that Villanova should leave Big East money to a weak FBS football conference. I’m not saying you’re not making a well-reasoned argument – you are – I just think you should make it a bit clearer on your site that it’s your own well-reasoned belief and not a mainstream viewpoint. Or if it is a mainstream viewpoint, name your sources. Again, I really think most expect Charlotte to just stay right where they are.
The Sun Belt expressing interest in Charlotte really does no harm to either party. The Sun Belt, suffering from a relatively weak FBS and basketball reputation, can paint itself as being desirable and Charlotte, still lacking uniforms, can paint itself as being desirable.
But would a 2012 invite be accepted? Nah. And I think they both realize that.

With CUSA expansion to 24 teams being a year away or several years away, Charlotte won’t jump anywhere else any time soon. The tv deal for C-USA should be much better, for one thing and football would have a home, down the road. As long as that kind of opportunity is plausible, rejecting that possibility or walking away from their current situation in the A10 is kind of crazy.

http://twitter.com/peternyehuntjr Peter Hunt

Jeff, I disagree with you. Football is the reason for all these changes, football is where the money is. That is why schools like San Deigo State, who have a good basketball program ditch the Mountain West to Join the Big East for football only, and their basketball program is left in the dust. Charlotte wants to have a great football program, and I can see them throwing their basketball program under the bus if they can better their football that hasn’t even started yet.I can see UMass doing the same. And I think most people who follow both football and basketball would agree with me.

http://twitter.com/peternyehuntjr Peter Hunt

Jeff, I disagree with you. Football is the reason for all these changes, football is where the money is. That is why schools like San Deigo State, who have a good basketball program ditch the Mountain West to Join the Big East for football only, and their basketball program is left in the dust. Charlotte wants to have a great football program, and I can see them throwing their basketball program under the bus if they can better their football that hasn’t even started yet.I can see UMass doing the same. And I think most people who follow both football and basketball would agree with me.

http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

Actually,for those who follow the logic of the developments, we’re all on the same page. It doesn’t mean that many of us as FANS hope for better things for Charlotte, as away to make up for being left out when CUSA split as it was back in 2003.

But the path is pretty straight forward:

SEC, ACC, B10, B12, P12 = never

Big East: no, as well. Even if the Big East were to lose the maximum number of schools they could (6), the replacements would STILL likely come from existing CUSA or even SB schools. Meaning, if the sky fell and Uconn and Rutgers joined the ACC, Lousiville and Cincinnati joined the Big 12, and SDSU and Boise St. left for the MWC/CUSA alliance/merge, you’d have Navy, Memphis, USF, UCF, SMU, Houston. It’s more likely that those 6 (or the 5 all-sports) would leave for CUSA/MWC at that point.

CUSA/MWC: depending on the path they take, we’ll know what happens. There’s a good chance that the MWC side takes Utah St. and SJSU (since Thompson just visited both campuses 2 weeks ago to scout). On the CUSA side, it appears that North Texas and FIU top the list. That would be 10 on the CUSA side, 10 on the MWC side. If Charlotte were a priority, they would be higher in the pecking order now, not below the 4 schools mentioned, as well as others like UTSA and LA Tech. But sure, if CUSA goes to 24 schools, I could see Charlotte beating out App St. for the last spot, #24.

MAC: yes, it might be an option if the MAC decides they like UMass enough to keep them after the 2 year initial run and want a 14th. Assuming Charlotte is the only option here…and not App St., JMU, OCU, Delaware.

Sun Belt: if they come knocking, they need to take it. If they want to be in FBS, they NEED an invite from an FBS conference. In other words, if they passed, they will never be able to upgrade to FBS until they get an invite from an FBS conference.
So if not the Sun Belt, then who? sure, maybe the MAC is an option. But that’s a maybe. CUSA/MWC alliance? That is a stretch to assume a spot. And of the current 6 BCS conferences? Likely never when you look at the trickle down effect.So the options are:A) goto the Sun Belt and prove yourself in FBS (maybe even return to the NCAA basketball tourney in the process)B) sit and wait for an invite to another conference that might never come, while the SB takes a replacement school instead like LA Tech, a spot that Charlotte needs in order to upgrade.

Jeff89

I think you’re alone in believing that. But I appreciate the response!

http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

yes, jeff. But Charlotte is not in a position to wait if they are invited. Since there are only a few options (potentially Sun Belt, not likely CUSA/MWC, WAC might fold, and the MAC for #14) IFFFF the Sun Belt shows any interest, Charlotte needs to jump at it. Because if they wait, and SB goes another path, Charlotte could forever be left out. No lock SB invites them though.

Jeff89

Wouldn’t it be far more likely for Charlotte to remain in the A10 for all sports than to join the Sun Belt?

If you look at both UMass & Charlotte – both are in the A10 and both want their football programs in an FBS conference. But while UMass might see a greater amount of pressure to move all their sports to the MAC in 2 years for the reasons given in the article, Charlotte is not under any pressure since they haven’t even played a down yet. There’s no incentive to go to the Sun Belt until they have FCS football up and running. 4 years from now, it could be a possibility. But not right now.

I just can’t see UMass jumping to move their basketball to the MAC so I certainly can’t see Charlotte jumping to move their basketball to the Sun Belt. If I had to play the odds, I would put my money on Charlotte being in the A10 unless they get a CUSA invite. Do you think otherwise and, if so, why?