Newcastle v Sydney

Saturday 10th November, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Newcastle were very good for the first half hour of their clash with the Victory last week but again impotent in front of goal. Their play has deserved more but as noted already this season their attack is still suffering without Roy O’Donovan and as is the norm, import Jair is taking a little time to settle.

Sydney lost the FFA Cup final last Tuesday but bounced back superbly to demolish City in Melbourne. Their passing game is starting to look ominous as is the combination between Ninkovic and Le Fondre. After playing in Adelaide and Melbourne last week they will appreciate the short journey up the freeway to Newcastle where they have won 12 of 20 A-League matches.

Key Statistics

2018/19 Statistics

New

Syd

Points

1 (10)

7 (1)

Win

0 (8)

2 (1)

Draw

1 (4)

1 (4)

Lost

2 (9)

0 (1)

Goals Scored

2 (7)

6 (1)

Total Shots For (p/match)

15.3 (2)

9.7 (9)

Shots on Target For (p/m)

4 (3)

4 (3)

Goals Conceded

4 (5)

1 (1)

Total Shots Against (p/m)

10.7 (4)

11.3 (5)

Shots on Target Against (p/m)

3 (3)

2.3 (1)

Clean Sheets

0 (7)

2 (1)

FTO2.5

2 (2)

1 (6)

FTU2.5

1 (6)

2 (1)

H SOT Conv

0.17 (10)

0.5 (1)

A SOT Conv

0.44 (10)

0.14 (1)

Statistics Comment

Sydney are down on their total shots but still strong on their shots on target. Stepping a little deeper on that stat I find that Sydney have recorded 72% of their total shots from inside the box against a league average of 62%. The Jets for instance have recorded just 52% of their shots from inside hence the variance of total shots but the equivalent shots on target.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Sydney to win at $1.90 for 2 units

Adelaide United v Perth Glory

Sunday 11th November, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Great week for Adelaide last week, winning the FFA Cup and following it up with a comfortable 3-0 win at Central Coast. They looked more potent with Apostolos Stamatelopoulos up front and Ken Ilso playing as the number 10, but the real star of the show this season has been Craig Goodwin who scored 2 doubles last week.

Perth are looking ominous heading into week 4 with 7 points and playing good football. They were in complete cruise control last week against the Roar although they did get slightly complacent and had a few scary moments late on. Still they look to have set up well for the season and as noted with their fluid 5-3-2/3-5-2 structure they are a very strong defensively.

Key Statistics

2018/19 Statistics

Adl

Per

Points

5 (3)

7 (1)

Win

1 (3)

2 (1)

Draw

2 (1)

1 (4)

Lost

0 (1)

0 (1)

Goals Scored

5 (3)

6 (1)

Total Shots For (p/match)

10.3 (8)

13.7 (3)

Shots on Target For (p/m)

4 (3)

5.3 (1)

Goals Conceded

2 (2)

4 (5)

Total Shots Against (p/m)

10.3 (3)

9 (1)

Shots on Target Against (p/m)

2.3 (1)

3.7 (4)

Clean Sheets

1 (2)

0 (7)

FTO2.5

1 (6)

2 (2)

FTU2.5

2 (1)

1 (6)

H SOT Conv

0.42 (2)

0.38 (3)

A SOT Conv

0.29 (4)

0.36 (8)

Statistics Comment

Two undefeated teams built with solid defence as their cornerstone. Adelaide have been reliant on Craig Goodwin who has 3 of their 5 goals (5 of 7 including the FFA Cup). Despite their lack of a clean sheet this season Perth have been strong defensively.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Under 2.5 Goals at $2.0 for 2 units

Melbourne Victory v Central Coast

Sunday 11th November, 7:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

For the first 30 mins last week it looks as if the Victory would head into the season with 3 straight losses. They have scored 1 of their 5 goals before half time and have really struggled to come out of the blocks this season.

The Mariners were very poor last week losing 0-3 at home to Adelaide. It was their worst performance of the season and they will be desperate to bounce back. They have only won 4 of 21 away against the Victory.

Key Statistics

2018/19 Statistics

Vic

CC

Points

3 (7)

2 (8)

Win

1 (3)

0 (8)

Draw

0 (10)

2 (1)

Lost

2 (9)

1 (4)

Goals Scored

4 (4)

2 (7)

Total Shots For (p/match)

13 (5)

7.7 (10)

Shots on Target For (p/m)

5.3 (1)

2.3 (10)

Goals Conceded

5 (8)

5 (8)

Total Shots Against (p/m)

12.3 (7)

18.7 (10)

Shots on Target Against (p/m)

4.3 (6)

5.3 (10)

Clean Sheets

1 (2)

0 (7)

FTO2.5

3 (1)

1 (6)

FTU2.5

0 (10)

2 (1)

H SOT Conv

0.25 (6)

0.29 (5)

A SOT Conv

0.38 (9)

0.31 (6)

Statistics Comment

Victory have been good going forward but still very sloppy at the back giving up a lot of very good chances. The Mariners statistics are starting to look all too familiar, poor at both ends of the ground.

The Victory have seen over 2.5 goals in 23 of their last 30 home matches.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 Goals at $1.50 for 3 units

Wellington v Western Sydney

Saturday 3rd November, 5:35pm AEDT

Match Overview

Wellington have started well under new coach Mark Rudan picking up 4 points. As predicted in the season preview, they are a combative team with the players fully committed, not something that has always been the case in Wellington.

That isn’t to say they are without skill as they do have plenty and in Sarpeet Singh one of the best young talents of the competition. I expect them to be hard to breakdown again here and they have no injury concerns.

Western Sydney were ok in round 1 picking up a point on the road to Perth but were outplayed in the most part by Sydney in the derby last week, even if VAR controversy worked against them. As stated last week I have real concerns with their defence and expect them to be exposed again, albeit against a team less dynamic than Sydney were in attack.

They do have one of the most talented attacking midfielders in the competition in Alex Baumjohann but with a lack of finishing touch and a wobbly defence he is going to have to be good to lift them.

Key Statistics

2018/19 Statistics

Wel

WSW

Points

4 (1)

1 (8)

Win

1 (1)

0 (5)

Draw

1 (4)

1 (4)

Lost

0 (1)

1 (8)

Goals Scored

2 (5)

1 (9)

Total Shots For (p/match)

12.5 (7)

13 (4)

Shots on Target For (p/m)

3 (7)

3 (7)

Goals Conceded

1 (1)

3 (7)

Total Shots Against (p/m)

13.5 (8)

15 (9)

Shots on Target Against (p/m)

4 (5)

5 (7)

Clean Sheets

1 (1)

0 (4)

FTO2.5

1 (2)

0 (6)

FTU2.5

1 (6)

2 (1)

H SOT Conv

33% (4)

17% (9)

A SOT Conv

13% (1)

30% (6)

Statistics Comment

Very similar across the board with the most glaring statistics the low conversion rate of Western Sydney and the low concession rate of Wellington. These will likely revert closer to the mean in due course but could hold here. Last season at home Wellington were 9-4 over 2.5 whilst Wanderers away were 9-3.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Wellington to win at $2.40 for 1 unit

BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 Goals at 1.60+ for 2 Units

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 3rd November, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

The Grand Final re-match, but how that match looks a distant memory after 2 rounds with the Jets picking up 1 point and the Victory getting nothing.

Newcastle are missing Roy O’Donovan up front with Jason Hoffman doing an honest job but struggling playing out of position. They have been better than the results read maintaining a reasonably strong defensive block and being unlucky in 2 of the 3 goals they have conceded thus far.

The Victory have been creating plenty of chances but similarly missing the that killer instinct in front of goal. They are without Kenny Athiu and Ola Toivonen here and it will be interesting to see who starts up front without a real striker to call on. The big problem for Melbourne has been their defence with 4 of the 5 goals they have conceded this season coming about from defensive errors. Looking back on my notes from last season and it was similar, particularly early in the season there. They are certainly vulnerable at the moment.

Key Statistics

2018/19 Statistics

New

Vic

Points

1 (8)

0 (10)

Win

0 (5)

0 (5)

Draw

1 (4)

0 (10)

Lost

1 (8)

2 (10)

Goals Scored

2 (5)

3 (2)

Total Shots For (p/match)

13 (4)

14.5 (3)

Shots on Target For (p/m)

4 (4)

6.5 (1)

Goals Conceded

3 (7)

5 (10)

Total Shots Against (p/m)

11 (6)

8.5 (1)

Shots on Target Against (p/m)

3 (4)

4.5 (6)

Clean Sheets

0 (4)

0 (4)

FTO2.5

1 (2)

2 (1)

FTU2.5

1 (6)

0 (10)

H SOT Conv

25% (7)

23% (8)

A SOT Conv

50% (9)

56% (10)

Statistics Comment

Nothing particularly poor about either team with the conversion rates low for both in an attacking sense but high from a defensive sense. Victory have won just 3 times in Newcastle from 20 A-League regular season matches, but of course won the most significant one in last seasons Grand Final.

Betting Strategy

Likely to be a tight match but I just have to bet against the Victory defence as it stands.

BACK (WIN) Newcastle Draw No bet at 1.95+ for 2 units

Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 3rd November, 10:00pm AEDT

Match Overview

Perth have started the season very well under new coach Tony Popovic and I really like the set up playing a 5-3-2 with the wide defenders encouraged to get forward. With Diego Castro to come back into the team they look like they are going to be a real threat this season.

Brisbane have started fairly, if unspectacularly, drawing at home to Central Coast and Wellington. Against Central Coast they really should have won with Adam Taggart guilty of spurning a number of good chances. They had a lot of the game against Wellington without creating too much.

Key Statistics

2018/19 Statistics

Per

Bne

Points

4 (1)

2 (5)

Win

1 (1)

0 (5)

Draw

1 (4)

2 (1)

Lost

0 (1)

0 (1)

Goals Scored

4 (1)

1 (9)

Total Shots For (p/match)

13 (4)

16 (1)

Shots on Target For (p/m)

4.5 (3)

3.5 (6)

Goals Conceded

3 (7)

1 (1)

Total Shots Against (p/m)

10.5 (3)

10.5 (3)

Shots on Target Against (p/m)

5 (7)

2.5 (1)

Clean Sheets

0 (4)

1 (1)

FTO2.5

1 (2)

0 (6)

FTU2.5

1 (6)

2 (1)

H SOT Conv

44% (1)

14% (10)

A SOT Conv

30% (6)

20% (2)

Statistics Comment

Perth are looking strong across the board albeit with a natural amount of improvement at this early stage of the season. Brisbane have been heavily favoured by the early fixtures with the Mariners and Phoenix at home.

Their big worry is that those are 2 matches they really should be getting at least 4 points from. The shots against is encouraging but again likely due more to the fixturing then brilliant defending.

Betting Strategy

Early to say but Perth are doing well and despite some bright moments Brisbane have started only fairly. I suspect Perth will be far to strong here.

BACK (WIN) Perth to Win at 1.80+ for 3 units

Sydney v Western Sydney

Saturday 27th October, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Sydney were outplayed for much of the match at Adelaide last week yet still had the class to come away with a point when most teams would not. Rookie Coach Steve Corica has maintained a very stable philosophy within the group which will hold them in good stead. In Adam Le Fondre they have found what looks to be a deadly goal poacher a completely different style of player to Bobo but he is likely to end with similar results assuming he gets the service he requires. The lack of Bobo’s physicality was felt when they tried to clear their lines long and certainly that is one area they must work on and with the Derby followed by the FFA Cup final they don’t have a lot of time.

Western Sydney gave as good as they got against the Glory in Perth last week, eventually leaving with a hard-earned point. I liked the look of them going forward, particularly new man Alex Baumjohann who produced some incredible defence splitting passes. I am however concerned about their back line. Aerially they dealt with Perth ok, but their wide defenders were often caught high up the pitch and I am not a big wrap for the central defensive pair of Tongyik and Hamill.

2017/18 Stats (Rank in brackets)

Syd

WSW

Win

20 (1)

8 (8)

Draw

4 (8)

9 (1)

Loss

3 (1)

8 (3)

Goals For

64 (1)

35 (6)

Goals Against

22 (1)

41 (7)

Total Shots For p/match

13.3 (5)

14 (2)

Shots on Target For p/m

5.6 (2)

4.2 (6)

Total Shots Against p/m

10.2 (1)

14.4 (10)

Shots on Target Against p/m

3 (1)

5.8 (10)

Clean Sheets

12 (1)

6 (4)

Over 2.5

19 (2)

15 (9)

Under 2.5

8 (9)

10 (3)

Shots on Target Conversion

42% (1)

33% (5)

Shots On Target Concession

42% (1)

33% (2)

Statistics Comment

Sydney dominated in every area last season whilst the Wanderers were underperforming in most areas. Sydney have won 9 of the 18 league derbies and the FFA Cup semi-final recently.

Betting Strategy

I expect Sydney to expose the Wanderers in defence and prove too strong.

BACK (WIN) Sydney -0.75 at 1.9+ for 2 units

Adelaide v Newcastle

Friday 26th October, 7:50pm AEDT, Coopers Stadium

Match Overview

Adelaide were unlucky not to take full points from their season opener at home to Sydney FC. They really should have been 2 or 3 up before Sydney, at their clinical best, levelled the match with their first real chance.

At no point did Sydney dominate them, and they look as if they will be an incredibly difficult team to break down with Jordan Elsey and Michael Jakobsen leading their defensive line. The problem for them was finding that killer instinct in front of goal particularly with Ben Halloran starting as a make shift striker. Tough to blame them when injury and a lack of match fitness took out their main striking options of Diawara, Blackwood, Kitto and Ilso.

They produced a very good base from which to build off and look in for a good season. They have the FFA Cup final on the Tuesday following but I don’t expect them to be too distracted by that event.

Newcastle lost away to Wellington Phoenix despite dominating possession and finishing with the better of the chances. Worryingly for the Jets they seemed to be out fought and out muscled at times, by in fairness a very physical Phoenix.

They have the nucleus of a very strong team but without the direction of Roy O’Donovan up front they may struggle for results, particularly away from home early in the season.

2017/18 Stats (Rank in brackets)

Adl

New

Win

11 (5)

15 (2)

Draw

6 (3)

5 (5)

Loss

10 (4)

7 (2)

Goals For

36 (5)

57 (2)

Goals Against

38 (5)

37 (3)

Total Shots For p/match

14.2 (1)

13.6 (4)

Shots on Target For p/m

4.3 (4)

5.8 (1)

Total Shots Against p/m

11.1 (3)

13.1 (6)

Shots on Target Against p/m

4.4 (5)

4.2 (4)

Clean Sheets

5 (5)

7 (3)

Over 2.5

16 (8)

20 (1)

Under 2.5

11 (2)

7 (10)

Shots on Target Conversion

31% (7)

37% (3)

Shots on Target Concession

32% (4)

32% (5)

Statistics Comment

The hallmark of the Jets matches last season was the open nature of the matches and number 1 rank for “Overs”. Their first match was over 2.5 albeit with 2 goals in the last 6 minutes. Adelaide were virtually a mirror image of last season but have some reinforcements in attack this week.

Verdict

Despite the Jets figures and another open game against the Phoenix last weekend I expect a very tight match here.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Under 2.5 Goals at 2.10+ for 2 Units

Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

Saturday 20th October, 7:50pm AEDT, Marvel Stadium

Match Overview

Victory won the Grand Final last year from 4th on the ladder and it is fair to say they were very poor for most of the season. Enter Keisuke Honda and Ola Toivonen straight from world cup duties and they look an outstanding outfit. Added to this I think this will be a big season for “King” Kenny Athiu and the attacking threat is awesome.

City lost Ross McCormack midway through last season and felt it towards the end of the season with a lack of goals. Bruno Fornaroli was also missing for the majority of last season but has looked sharp in pre-season FFA Cup matches. They are tight defensively but will need to be at the top of their game against a Victory team with a strong front 3.

Key Statistics

The hallmark of the Jets matches last season was the open nature of the matches and number 1 rank for “Overs”. Their first match was over 2.5 albeit with 2 goals in the last 6 minutes. Adelaide were virtually a mirror image of last season but have some reinforcements in attack this week.

2017/18 Stats (Rank in brackets)

Vic

City

Win

12 (4)

13 (3)

Draw

5 (5)

4 (8)

Loss

10 (4)

10 (4)

Goals For

43 (3)

41 (4)

Goals Against

37 (3)

33 (2)

Total Shots For p/match

12.3 (7)

12.8 (6)

Shots on Target For p/m

4.3 (4)

4.7 (3)

Total Shots Against p/m

13.8 (7)

11.1 (2)

Shots on Target Against p/m

4.1 (3)

3.7 (2)

Clean Sheets

4 (9)

9 (2)

Over 2.5

17 (4)

17 (4)

Under 2.5

10 (3)

10 (3)

Shots on Target Conversion

37% (2)

33% (6)

Shots on Target Concession

34% (7)

33% (6)

Verdict

Two high scoring teams last season and their head to head statistics point to even more strongly to goals with 20 of 25 derbies seeing 3 goals or more.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 2 units

BACK (WIN) over 3.5 goals at 2.4+ for 1 unit

Wellington Pheonix v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 21st October, 3:00pm AEDT, Wellington Regional Stadium

Match Overview

Coach Mark Rudan makes his A-League debut with Wellington and has a largely settled line-up with the exception of the addition of Englishman Stephen Taylor. He will likely have them very organised, but he is also an attacking coach and as such it is likely not much will change for Wellington home games which generally see goals.

Newcastle were fantastic last year getting all the way to the Grand Final. That loss hurt but potentially the most painful aspect may play out this season with Roy O’Donovan banned for 8 matches. That said they were without marquee Ronald Vargas for a big part of the season and as such he is like a new signing, and a good one at that.

Key Statistics

2017/18 Stats (Rank in brackets)

Wel

New

Win

5 (9)

15 (2)

Draw

6 (3)

5 (5)

Loss

16 (10)

7 (2)

Goals For

31 (9)

57 (2)

Goals Against

55 (10)

37 (3)

Total Shots For p/match

13.6 (3)

13.6 (4)

Shots on Target For p/m

4 (7)

5.8 (1)

Total Shots Against p/m

14 (8)

13.1 (6)

Shots on Target Against p/m

5.1 (9)

4.2 (4)

Clean Sheets

2 (10)

7 (3)

Over 2.5

18 (3)

20 (1)

Under 2.5

9 (7)

7 (10)

Shots on Target Conversion

29% (10)

37% (3)

Shots on Target Concession

40% (9)

32% (5)

Verdict

Both these teams feature heavily in “overs” matches last season and whilst I think Wellington will be more compact, particularly early in the season I think this match will still see goals and be relatively open

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 2 units

BACK (WIN) over 3.5 goals at 2.2+ for 1 unit

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