Romney Two-Way Race Now Four-Way Republican Dead Heat in Iowa

The 2012 Republican candidates participate in a presidential debate sponsored by Bloomberg and The Washington Post held at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire, U.S. Photographer: Melina Mara/Pool via Bloomberg

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney
and Newt Gingrich are in a dead heat as the top choices for
Iowans likely to attend the Jan. 3 Republican presidential
caucuses.

A Bloomberg News poll shows Cain at 20 percent, Paul at 19
percent, Romney at 18 percent and Gingrich at 17 percent among
the likely attendees with the caucuses that start the nominating
contests seven weeks away.

Economic issues such as jobs, taxes and government spending
are driving voter sentiment, rather than such social issues as
abortion and gay marriage, the poll finds. Only about a quarter
of likely caucus-goers say social or constitutional issues are
more important to them, compared with 71 percent who say fiscal
concerns.

The poll reflects the race’s fluidity, with 60 percent of
respondents saying they still could be persuaded to back someone
other than their top choice, and 10 percent undecided. Paul’s
support is more solidified than his rivals, while Cain’s is
softer. All of the major contenders have issue challenges to
address.

“In Iowa, it’s long been a two-person race between Romney
and someone else,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer &
Co., which conducted the poll for Bloomberg. “It is now a four-person race between Romney and three someone elses.”

No Exciting Choices

Poll participant Nate Warwick, 34, a machine operator at a
packaging factory who lives in Story City, Iowa, is leaning
toward Romney, primarily because he thinks he has the best
chance of defeating President Barack Obama in 2012. Still, he’s
not excited about his choices.

“There’s nobody out there who is really grabbing my
attention, wholly,” he said. “I don’t think the Republican
Party has a candidate that can beat Obama right now.”

Texas Governor Rick Perry and Minnesota Representative
Michele Bachmann, who both once were strong contenders in polls
of the Republican race, have seen support plummet. Perry, who is
running ads in Iowa, gets 7 percent support in the Bloomberg
survey; Bachmann, who won the Iowa Straw Poll in August, is
backed by 5 percent.

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who has
spent the most time campaigning in Iowa, is at 3 percent. Former
Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr., who isn’t competing in Iowa, is
backed by 1 percent.

Better Barometers

Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire -- site of the nation’s
first primary -- are better barometers of the candidate field
than national surveys because voters in those states are paying
more attention and are aware of their early role in shaping the
Republican race.

The Bloomberg Iowa poll has a margin of error of plus or
minus 4.4 percentage points and was taken Nov. 10-12. Selzer &
Co. is the same West Des Moines-based firm that conducts the
Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register newspaper.

The concern about economic issues comes even as Iowa is
doing better than other states. Buoyed by rising farm commodity
and land prices, its unemployment rate is 6 percent, below the
national average of 9 percent.

Iowa’s economic improvement, as measured by the Bloomberg
Economic Evaluation of States Index, was ranked the 10th best
nationally between the fourth quarter of 2008 and the second
quarter of 2011. The index uses housing, jobs, tax and stock
price data for its rankings.

A Romney Opening

The focus on the economy presents an opening for Romney,
the former Massachusetts governor who in his campaign has
spotlighted his background as a business executive. Romney has
shown signs he may engage more directly in Iowa, a state where
he invested $10 million in his 2008 presidential bid only to be
rejected by social conservatives who rallied behind former
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in that year’s caucuses.

“Iowa apparently is not looking for the next Huckabee this
time around,” Selzer said.

Romney’s support consists of 41 percent who backed him in
2008, the survey found, which means “the majority of his
support comes from newcomers to his camp,” Selzer said.

Among tax plans tested in the poll, a version that
generally reflects Romney’s proposal to make former President
George W. Bush’s tax cuts permanent and then work toward an
overhaul wins the greatest support, backed by 32 percent. Cain’s
so-called 9-9-9 plan is considered the best approach by 24
percent, while Perry’s flat-tax proposal is viewed that way by
14 percent.

Health Care Vulnerability

One area where Romney, 64, is vulnerable is his backing as
governor support of a health insurance mandate in Massachusetts
that is similar to the one in the federal health-care overhaul
passed by Congress last year. More than half -- 58 percent -- of
likely caucus participants said support of such a mandate would
“rule out” their backing. In debates, Romney has said he would
not impose a national mandate and would repeal the federal law.

There’s good news in the poll for Paul, 76, a Texas
congressman who has attracted ardent supporters. Among likely
caucus-goers who say their minds are made up, Paul leads with 32
percent, followed by Romney at 25 percent and Gingrich, a former
House speaker, at 17 percent.

Among Paul supporters who backed him in the 2008 caucuses,
69 percent are still with him now.

Poll participant Sarah Stang, 78, a retired teacher who
lives in Osage, Iowa, said she switched parties four years ago
so she could vote for Paul.

“He doesn’t want to raise taxes on us middle- and low-income people,” she said, adding that she “loves” his
challenges to the Federal Reserve. “They have way too much
power. They should let the marketplace do what it’s supposed
to,” she said.

Cain Support Dips

Support for Cain, 65, a former businessman who has been
accused of sexually harassing four women in the 1990s, has
dipped in Iowa by three percentage points since a similar survey
done Oct. 23-26 by the Des Moines Register.

In the Bloomberg poll, 29 percent of likely caucus
participants say they believe Cain’s denials, while 37 percent
are waiting for more information. More than a quarter are
skeptical of his answers to the harassment allegations or don’t
believe him. Cain does better among men than women in the poll,
23 percent to 15 percent.

More than two-thirds of likely caucus participants say they
wouldn’t rule out a candidate just because he had been accused
of sexual harassment.

Gingrich Gains

Gingrich’s campaign appears to be benefiting from Cain’s
recent struggles.

The former Georgia congressman suffered an early political
setback when more than a dozen of his staff members -- including
his national co-chairman and campaign manager -- resigned in
June following discord over strategy.

Poll participant Tom Anderson, 63, a retired union
carpenter from Sigourney, Iowa, said he is backing Gingrich
after deciding against Perry and Cain.

“He’s a smart guy and a problem-solver,” said Anderson.

Still, almost half of respondents say they would rule out a
candidate who has been married three times and had an
extramarital affair. Gingrich, 68, is in his third marriage. And
in a March 2007 interview with a Christian group, Focus on the
Family, he admitted to having had an extramarital affair.

Perry, 61, also has a stumbling block with caucus-goers.
The poll found that 42 percent of likely Iowa caucus attendees
said the Perry-signed Texas law allowing children of illegal
immigrants to pay in-state tuition rates would rule out their
support. Even so, Perry, at 16 percent, and Paul, at 17 percent,
ranked highest as candidates that “would do the most” to stop
illegal immigration.

Voter Contacts

Although the top candidates are spending less time in Iowa
than prior election cycles, likely caucus participants are
hearing from them on a regular basis.

Almost a fifth say they have been contacted by six or more
of the campaigns through e-mail, direct mail, telephone or by
someone coming to their door during the past year. Forty-four
percent say they have been contacted by three to five campaigns.

Paul’s campaign leads for voter contact, with about two
thirds of respondents saying they’ve heard from his campaign,
followed by 61 percent who said they’ve been reached by
Bachmann’s campaign.

Bachmann, 55, isn’t getting much benefit from those
interactions, converting to supporters just six percent,
according to the poll. In contrast, Gingrich’s campaign has made
direct contact with 29 percent of likely caucus participants,
and converted a third of them to his cause.