With the general election for the open U.S. Senate seat tomorrow, what clues do Cory Booker and Steve Lonegan's primary wins reveal for the Wednesday's outcome?

Both won their primaries handily.

Lonegan, the former mayor of Bogota, only faced token opposition from political newcomer Alieta Eck. He won 80% of the Republican votes, 103,280. Booker, the mayor of Newark, more than doubled that total with 216,936 Democratic votes or 59%. But because Lonegan was a shoe-in, there wasn't much enthusiasm for Republicans to turn out.

Booker, however, faced more seasoned opposition, running against two long-standing members of Congress, Frank Pallone (D-6th Dist.) and Rush Holt (D-12th Dist.), and the state Assembly Speaker, Sheila Oliver (D-Essex).

Pallone was Booker's stronger foe, polling 72,584 votes, just shy of 20%. Holt pulled in 16% with Oliver at a meager 4%.

PRIMARY RESULTS

Votes

Booker differential

Booker

216,936

-

Pallone

72,584

144,352

Holt

61,463

155,473

Oliver

15,656

201,280

Votes

Lonegan differential

Lonegan

103,280

-

Eck

25,669

77,611

Let's drill deeper into the town-by-town results to find patterns of Booker and Lonegan's wins.

New Jersey has a lot of small towns and only a few large ones. Booker won in 455 towns, compared to Pallone's 54 and Holt's 53. Oliver won none.

It's harder to do similar analysis for Lonegan because his opponent, Eck, was so weak. Lonegan won in 562 towns by a statewide margin of 77,611. Eck won 3 towns in the state, Manville, Bound Brook and South Bound Brook, by a total of 36 votes.

There are some reliably left-leaning towns like Teaneck (#6) and Montclair (#12). Also notable are four of the most prototypical suburbs in the state, West Orange, Union Twp. (Union County), Franklin Twp. (Somerset County) and Cherry Hill.

Booker's Top 20 Towns

Town

County

Votes

Newark

Essex

12,270

Jersey City

Hudson

9,416

Paterson

Passaic

7,175

East Orange

Essex

4,278

North Bergen

Hudson

3,826

Teaneck

Bergen

3,663

Willingboro

Burlington

3,467

Plainfield

Union

3,377

Elizabeth

Union

3,276

Trenton

Mercer

3,226

Irvington

Essex

3,129

Montclair

Essex

2,838

Camden

Camden

2,450

Franklin

Somerset

2,437

Cherry Hill

Camden

2,411

West Orange

Essex

2,368

Union City

Hudson

2,240

Englewood

Bergen

2,177

Hackensack

Bergen

2,066

Union

Union

1,994

Cherry Hill is the only place on both Booker and Lonegan's top 20 lists. It's #7 for Lonegan and #15 for Booker. The next closest place is Jersey City (B-#2, L-#24) but it's large population negates any notion of a swing town. It's Cherry Hill that'll be interesting to watch on Wednesday night.

Where else did Lonegan pile up the primary votes?

As the chart shows Ocean County loved Lonegan. Toms River, Manchester, Brick and Berkeley Twp. were his top 4 towns. Lakewood and Jackson were joined by Middletown in his top 10. Cherry Hill and Wayne were the only non-shore places in the upper tier.

Lonegan also polled well in large and growing suburban areas like Hamilton, Howell, Monroe, Wall and Bridgewater.

Booker didn't tank in those places. He beat his primary opponents mostly, but didn't rely on them for big vote totals.

Ocean and Monmouth will be counties to watch for big Lonegan wins on Wednesday.
Other than Jersey City, Lonegan didn't get many primary votes in large New Jersey cities, particular those with strong minority populations. Despite the earlier disclaimer not to compare votes, a couple of Lonegan's urban returns are extraordinary for how small they are: East Orange, 20; Irvington, 30; Camden, 70; Trenton, 112; Elizabeth, 176; Newark, 272.

Wednesday's election may come down to how strongly Lonegan does in Ocean, Monmouth and Morris counties versus Booker's embrace, generally, by the suburbs.

But the lesson for Lonegan supporters may be how quickly Booker won his primary: it was over in 18 towns. The following chart lists the top towns that voted for Booker. The state's biggest cities, democratic strongholds all, are on that list but so are some reliably left-leaning towns like Teaneck and Montclair. Also there are four of the most prototypical suburbs in the state, West Orange, Union Twp. (Union County), Franklin Twp. (Somerset County) and Cherry Hill.

Big city mayor Booker did well in the suburbs? Among Democratic primary voters, extremely well.

Booker, who grew up in suburban Bergen County, won 51% of the suburban votes. Pallone and Holt split most of the rest, 24% and 22%. In fact, if only Booker's 79,000 suburban votes were counted, he'd still have beat Pallone's state-wide figure.

Booker won the suburbs. He also won the urban suburbs (South Amboy, Clark, Summit, etc.) by even greater margins, 63% to 20% and 13% for Pallone and Holt.

That's important for the general election because more New Jersey ballots are cast from the suburbs than from the cities. And the cities are a given for Booker, where he won 72% of the primary vote, almost 61,000, and will be tougher for Lonegan.

Surprising primary fact: Cory Booker won the rural vote. He polled 47% among rural and rural center voters. Again Pallone and Holt split the rest, 21% and 29%. But among Democrats in August, that wasn't many people, just over 28,000.

There's not much to say about Oliver's returns because they were even smaller. In fact, she polled no voters in 57 towns. Those were mostly small, but include places like Rumson, Essex Fells, Frenchtown and Mountainside.

And if you've read this far into this election returns analysis, you're a hard-core election follower. Thanks. Here are some bonus bar/coffee shop items to wow your friends with:

Camden County's two golf course towns, Pine Valley and Tavistock, voted for no Democrats nor Eck. They combined for 11 total Lonegan votes.

Holt zeroed out in three additional towns, Rockleigh, Teterboro and Mantoloking. Pallone added zeros in Far Hills and Walpack, which cast its lone democratic vote for Holt. Booker got at least a vote everywhere else.

There's no other source for this election return in as much detail. Download it here. Thanks to the staff at Division of Elections in Trenton for letting me sit at a desk to type in all the numbers from tally sheets sent in by New Jersey's 21 counties.

Please use the comments link to add your own analysis, and include some numbers from the download as proof.