Shining a light on Russia’s relationship with the West

Apr 02 2012

Alexander Gasyuk

Zbigniew Brzezinski, an adviser and board member of the Center for Strategic and International Studies focusing on current and upcoming trends in Russia-Western relations. A former national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, Brzezinski remai

Zbigniew Brzezinski spoke to RBTH on his strategic vision of Western-Russia relations and international affairs.

One
of the best known foreign policy experts of our time, Zbigniew
Brzezinski spoke to RBTH after the release of his 2012 book,
“Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power.” The
work examines the shift of global power from West to East and
possible scenarios if the United States fails to maintain its
stabilizing influence in the world.

Brzezinski
is an adviser and board member of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies focusing on current and upcoming trends in
Russia-Western relations. A former national security adviser to
President Jimmy Carter, Brzezinski remains a significant voice on
international affairs.

RBTH:
In
your recent book “Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of
Global Power” you argue that the West should embrace Russia. Do you
believe that some sort of genuine strategic Western-Russia
partnership could still be achieved even if not in the short-run, but
perhaps in more distant future?

Dr.
Zbigniew Brzezinski:
I think that Russia should be a member of Euro-Atlantic community.
Russia is a European country and should be part of it. But, of
course, that community means partnership among democratic
partners. I’m
very explicit in my book and I happen to believe that in fact civil
society motivated by democratic principles and democratic convictions
is emerging in Russia. Whether it will become the dominant political
reality is still an open question.

RBTH:
As
you may know many Russians feel that at least culturally, Russia is
in fact a part of the West. One could argue that there is no need to
move toward the West because we are part of it.

Dr.
Zbigniew Brzezinski:
I think there is confusion regarding what we are talking about.
Germany has also always been a part of the West, but Germany during
some years in the 20th century deviated very far away from democratic
principles and wasn’t part of the West at that time. I argue in my
book that Russia culturally and historically is in fact a Western
society. But that does not automatically mean that it is a democratic
society. The Euro-Atlantic community has to be democratic and I have
high degree of confidence that in fact the younger Russian generation
and especially the younger member of new middle class are genuinely
democratic.
The critical question is: are Russia’s political institutions,
political processes and political traditions democratic?

RBTH:
Former
State Secretary Henry Kissinger recently has publicly suggested that
incoming Russian President Vladimir Putin in not anti-Western and he
can turn out to be a constructive partner on specific issues. Do you
believe Putin can drive Russia closer to the West?

Dr.
Zbigniew Brzezinski:
I’m not going to make predictions about Mr. Putin. I think when he
becomes President, once he considers seriously the geopolitical
dilemmas that face Russia, not to mention some social problems like
demographic difficulties, he might very well come to a
conclusion that will surprise us all. However, I’m not prepared to
issue good democratic conduct certificates until actions speak louder
than words.

RBTH:
China will be a bigger factor in Russian foreign policy, according to
experts, especially if relations with the West deteriorate. Do you
believe that it is going to be a temporary or tactical Russia-China
convergence on foreign policy matters or is it more a sort of
strategic approach?

Dr.
Zbigniew Brzezinski:
I think first of all that it is not necessarily the case that
Russia’s relations with the West will deteriorate. I’m not
prepared to flatly predict that this would be so. Although some of
Mr. Putin’s actions and words seem to possibly indicate that.

However
if Russia decides to focus on its relationship with China as the
primary source of its global importance, namely through some sort of
special relationship with Beijing, then most Russians, I think, are
aware of the fact that in such relationship Russia would be the
junior partner of a much more dynamic and much more rapidly growing,
much more socially effective, modernizing China. If Russia-China
relations are to become strategic the consequences have to be
understood in advance. And I’m not sure that those Russians who see
themselves as naturally part of the West, as you rightly mentioned,
are going to be satisfied with this.

RBTH:
Some Republican presidential candidates have expressed strong
anti-Russian sentiment, especially during debates and have called for
an end to the reset policy. If a Republican candidate prevails in the
upcoming Presidential elections, is it safe to say that U.S.-Russia
relations will suffer accordingly?

Dr.
Zbigniew Brzezinski:
I think it is safe to say that Republican presidential debates are
not serious and they shouldn’t be taken seriously. They are to some
extent an intellectual embarrassment. Because they are shallow,
ignorant and totally detached from any serious policy choices even if
one of Republican candidates was to win the presidential election.
But the fact that so many of their statements on foreign affairs are
literally ludicrous, I think, is also an indication that it is not
very likely that one of them will win the election.

RBTH:
When you were national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter,
you did your utmost to drive the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan. But
more than 30 years later Russia is fully supportive of the U.S. and
NATO mission in this country and contributes to the extent possible
to its success. Do you think the Russia-U.S. partnership is sincere
and if yes, why?

Dr.
Zbigniew Brzezinski:
I think it is sincere because it is derived from rational and
intelligent self-interest. I think that non-communist Russia realizes
that if the forces of fundamentalism and extremism were to prevail in
Afghanistan the results would spread to Central Asia and probably
also to the 30 million Muslims within Russia.

Also
I think Russians realize that American objectives in Afghanistan have
been scaled down from President Bush’s exuberant predictions that
Afghanistan would become a moderate democratic state. Now the
expectations are that when America leaves some sort of a more
traditional arrangement in Afghanistan perhaps reinforced by regional
guaranties will provide stability and recovery, especially if the
outside world and particularly America remain committed to the
provision of economic assistance to post-conflict Afghanistan.

RBTH:
Moscow and Washington have disagreements over the role of the United
Nations in international affairs and the case of Syria speaks for
itself. What role should international institutions and first and
foremost the United Nations play in your strategic vision of the
future world order?

Dr.
Zbigniew Brzezinski:
That depends very much on whether what I advocate in my book
“Strategic Vision” will come to pass. I think that international
cooperation is more likely if we have more stability among the great
and most important regions of the world in which there is more wealth
and more development present. If the Euro-Atlantic community manages
to strike a reasonable balance in our relations with China, but also
with Japan and India and if Russia is active in that context as an
increasingly influential voice in the West, I think we will have a
better chance of reaching consensus. Not only regarding specific
problems that confront us today such as Syria, but even more basic
ones regarding problems that will probably confront all of humanity
during the rest of the century. In my judgment this is not going to
be a century in which there is the hegemony of a single power. The
choice for the 21st century is not hegemony or peace, but it’s a
choice between chaos and cooperation.

Alexander Gasyuk is
the Washington, D.C. correspondent for Rossiyskaya Gazeta.