Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate speaks to the press at a get-out-the-vote event with members of the Veterans for Sinema coalition and volunteers on Nov. 1 in Phoenix.(Photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic)

The Associated Press called the Senate race for Sinema on Monday night and McSally tweeted her congratulations to Sinema.

Sinema will be the first woman in the state's 106-year-old history to take a seat on the floor of the U.S. Senate.

Sinema's systematic play for moderate Republican voters, independent voters and suburban women anxious about the polarizing politics in the era of President Donald Trump gave her an advantage in the state's urban areas that was too great for McSally to overcome.

Sinema maintained her lead over McSally on Monday, and grew it to 1.7 percentage points, with the latest drop of early ballots, again defying the narrative from McSally's campaign that the Republican would perform well enough in the waning days of ballot-counting to remain competitive.

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Dist. 9, turns in signatures to Eric Spencer, director of election services for the Office of the Secretary of State, in Phoenix, Tuesday, May 29, 2018. Sinema is running for U.S. Senate. Tom Tingle/The Republic

Rep. Martha McSally, a republican vying for her party's U.S. Senate nomination, speaks during campaign pitch to the Palo Verde Republican Woman at Lush Burger in Scottsdale on May 20, 2018. Cheryl Evans/The Republic

Representative Martha McSally in center welcomes Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, at round table meeting with members of the Arizona border community in Nogales, Arizona on May 31st, 2018. Nick Oza/The Republic

Rep. Martha McSally greets supporters Aug. 28. 2018, during a primary election party In Tempe, Ariz. . McSally, the two-term congresswoman from Tucson, is vying for the Republican nomination for the open U.S. Senate seat. Michael Chow/The Republic

U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., sings the national anthem at the Utah vs. ASU game on Nov. 3 at Sun Devil Stadium. McSally is running against Democrat Krysten Sinema for the U.S. Senate. Rob Schumacher/The Republic

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in the huddle for the coin toss as Utah plays Arizona State. Sinema is running against Republication Martha McSally for the U.S. Senate. Rob Schumacher/The Republic

"I wish her success," McSally wrote on Twitter. "I’m grateful to all those who supported me in this journey. I'm inspired by Arizonans’ spirit and our state’s best days are ahead of us."

Congrats to @kyrstensinema. I wish her success. I’m grateful to all those who supported me in this journey. I’m inspired by Arizonans’ spirit and our state’s best days are ahead of us. pic.twitter.com/tw0uKgi3oO

"The Sinema campaign did the math that they needed to do to win and did everything to get there, and didn't allow themselves to get distracted" by responding to Trump's latest tweets or news of the day, Democratic strategist Andy Barr said. "She had a very narrow path and needed to do everything right to win, and did it."

The Arizona Republic estimates there are about 170,000 votes still to be counted. McSally would have to win those by nearly 23 percentage points to retake the lead.

Ninety-five percent of the uncounted votes are in Maricopa and Pima counties, the two places where she has underperformed.

Sinema played for crossover voters — those Republicans who may be willing to change their behavior and go for a Democrat — as well as independent voters.

In doing so, Sinema forged a path that allowed her to overtake Pima County, the Democratic-leaning county that anchors McSally's Tucson-based 2nd Congressional District.

Sinema won Pima County over McSally by about 15 percentage points.

And Sinema ran up the numbers in Maricopa County, the state's most populous area which leans Republican. She won Maricopa County by 3.7 percentage points.

As the latest round of ballots came in on Monday, Sinema again tallied big margins in Maricopa and Pima counties, the state's population centers, while McSally piled up small wins in smaller counties.

In Maricopa and Pima counties, Sinema led McSally by 103,000 votes. Elsewhere, McSally led by 64,000 votes.

The Pima County numbers may be especially painful for McSally because most of the county is in her congressional district.

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Why are things taking so long in the McSally-Sinema Senate race? "The Gaggle" panelists explain.
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McSally's deficit in Pima County, 54,000 votes, was larger than it was in Maricopa County, which has three times more voters.

Yavapai and Pinal counties are the most populous GOP-leaning areas of the state. Together, they supported McSally by a net 28,000 votes. Mohave County, where McSally collected her biggest share of votes, about 70 percent, gave her another 31,000 net votes.

The state's 10 remaining counties narrowly voted for Sinema.

McSally's biography as the first woman combat pilot and alignment with Trump played well with rural Arizona voters on the outskirts of the suburbs.