“The Jobs Are Gone” March 2018

The Field Report

With the central Illinois prairie covered with snow, Trent sat down in his warm office to look back and ahead. 2018 “was a decent year, but not a record-breaker. We had good weather and good production, but the markets were not friendly.” Trent continued by observing that the federal government shutdown has stopped USDA crop reports so the markets have no current information about final yield figures, export sales, status of various inventories, and similar information which ordinarily moves the market. Without the current reports, the markets are in a holding pattern, unsure of direction.

The big headlines about tariffs cause everyone in agri-business to fear that foreign countries who buy so much of American ag production will impose tariffs on us in retaliation.

Trent is concerned about corn and soybean prices being driven lower by the impact of foreign tariffs on U.S. export sales. “After all,” Trent says, “the jobs are gone already and tariffs won’t bring them back.” Trent hopes there is not a repeat of the notorious Carter grain embargo of the late 1970s which drove so much soybean production to South America.

Trent watches the weather as the planting season approaches. “It’s still a little dry,” Trent commented. The recent heavy rains did raise surface soil moisture, but Trent doesn’t think the abnormally dry conditions of the early winter have been eliminated yet. Trent thinks it’s not too wet to plant right now, “but we still have April coming.” Trent noted that the spring season “seems a little early” this year.