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We touched on several matchups Wednesday with my Four Questions for Week Four post. One game I purposefully did not addressed in much detail, in part because I was saving it for this space, is the Cal-Arizona State duel.

The relevant number for me is not Cal’s national ranking in run defense (126th) or ASU’s national ranking in pass defense (128th, which is dead last). Nope, it’s this:

119

That’s the combined point total in the highest scoring conference game in Pac-12 history: Cal 60-59 over Washington State two years ago. It will be in jeopardy late (late) Saturday night.

Remember Oregon’s crazy, 61-55 triple-overtime victory over ASU last season? This weekend’s tangle in Tempe could make that seem like amateur hour.

With the bowl season comes a chance for redemption for the Pac-12, which didn’t quite live up to advanced billing during the regular season.

It wasn’t the best conference in the nation; the South wasn’t close to the best division; it got left out of the College Football Playoff; it didn’t even produce a second participant in the New Year’s Six bowls.

Redemption time arrives Saturday, but the road is fraught with peril — courtesy of the oddsmakers and betting public.

The conference produced more bowl teams than ever before (10), but consider the breakdown:

It’s the heavy favorite in two games, the slight-to-solid favorite in six games, and a toss-up in two more.

In no instance is the Pac-12 an underdog — the room for an upside surprise is pretty close to non-existent.

Basically, the league would need to go 10-0 (maybe 9-1) to end the bowl season on a rip-roaring note relative to expectations.

I’m not sure Devontae Booker is the most valuable player in the conference. Oregon was lost without Vernon Adams, Washington State would be in dire shape without Luke Falk, and Stanford without Kevin Hogan? Forget it.

But I am quite certain that Booker is the most valuable non-quarterback in the league.

Before we get to the picks, let’s examine the game of the week, which used to be the game of the year in the Pac-12 and involves a wee bit of history, from a point-spread perspective:

Oregon hasn’t been an underdog of this magnitude since the Ducks climbed onto the national stage more than half a decade ago.

They opened as an 8.5-point dog and are now 10 for the Saturday afternoon showdown.

Last time the number was that high for any Oregon game: against USC in ’08.

I spoke to former Oregon defensive coordinator/current Pac12Nets analyst Nick Aliotti about Saturday’s affair at Stanford. Aliotti, who was spot-on with his assessment last year, likes Oregon’s chances this time around, as well, and offered two reasons for the sentiment:

While much of the attention is on Oregon’s porous defense and its prospects for containing Stanford’s balanced, high-scoring attack, the outcome of the game typically hinges on the other matchup: Oregon’s offense against Stanford’s defense. The Ducks struggled in ’12 and ’13 (Stanford wins) and rolled last year (Oregon win). Aliotti thinks Oregon has enough playmakers to put up points.

In his words: “The style (of offense) Stanford plays, although it can cause problems, plays in the Oregon defense’s favor because it doesn’t spread them out as much, if Stanford attacks with all the linemen and the 2-back sets … because of the methodical, grind-you-out offense, Oregon should not give up big plays.”

I had considered No. 1, for sure, but No. 2 is an interesting view. Many of Oregon’s defensive breakdown have come in space. If bunched to counteract Stanford’s heavy sets, the Ducks might have more success. The holes are on the second and third levels — the front is quite good.

The key, as I see it: Third down. (Okay, third down and turnovers.)

If the Ducks limit Stanford’s percent conversions — something in the 35 to 40 percent range — we should have a tight finish.

If the Ducks cannot get Stanford off the field, it could get lopsided in the second half.

How have the teams fared thus far in league play?

Stanford leads the Pac-12 in third-down conversions (52.2 percent) — quarterback Kevin Hogan has been masterful with decisions and execution.

Meanwhile, Oregon is seventh in third-down defense, allowing conversions at a 44 percent clip (Stanford leads the league, by the way).

One final thought on the committee rankings before we get to the Pac-12 picks of the week (and it’s a bit of a ho-hum week, actually):

Remember back in September, back when the league was producing less-than-stellar results in key intersectional matchups? Seems like the committee remembers, too — as it should.

The Pac-12 is 1-5 in non-conference games against teams in the committee’s top 25, the lone victory being Utah over Michigan.

The Losses:
USC to Notre Dame
Oregon to Michigan State
ASU to Texas A&M
Oregon State to Michigan
Stanford to Northwestern

Add the fact that there are only three Pac-12 teams in the top 25, and that undermines the cases for Stanford and Utah.

Stanford has one win over a top-25 team (No. 23 UCLA), and the same goes for Utah (No. 17 Michigan).

The outlines are emerging of a picture that looks something like this: The Pac-12 champ gets left out of the playoff, chairman Jeff Long is asked about it on the morning of Dec. 6, and his response is essentially: When we looked at the results, we just didn’t feel the league was as strong as some of the others.

I’m not suggesting that fate is unavoidable by any means — so much can happen in the next month, and any one-loss Power 5 champ is in the discussion — but nor should we be surprised if that’s how it plays out.

Couldn’t help but notice the Yahoo streaming experiment with the NFL game (Bills-Jaguars) was less than an overwhelming success.

The league backpedaled on the initial (30 million +) and secondary (15M) numbers — Yahoo rigged the situation, to a certain extent — with the consensus total of less than 2 million any-given-minute viewers.

Why does this matter to the Pac-12?

It has no immediate impact. But if you’re casting an eye to the availability, viability and revenue-generation power of live Internet/over-the-top streaming for the Pac12Nets — commissioner Larry Scott and his consultants were no doubt monitoring the situation closely — the NFL numbers are cause for mild encouragement, but not celebration.

Let’s start this Pac-12 picks column with the Thursday night affair in the Rose Bowl. It doesn’t feature either division leader, but I’d argue it’s the most intriguing game of the week.

How will Cal in general and Jared Goff in particular perform in the first game since the loss at Utah? Are the Bears ready to join the league’s upper division? Can Sonny Dykes earn his first victory over a member of the UCLA/USC/Stanford/Oregon quartet?

While it’s an important game for the Bears, who must win to keep control of their own destiny in the North, it’s more significant from a trajectory standpoint for the Bruins.

After a multi-year uptick under Jim Mora — albeit an uptick that hasn’t quite matched expectations in some corners (i.e., the failure to close out the South last year) — the Bruins have floundered recently.

Losing three all-conference defensive starters plays a significant role, no doubt. But should they be as porous as they’ve been lately? They capitulated at Stanford and let ASU, which scored 14 vs USC and 18 vs Utah, ring up 38 in the Rose Bowl. They’re the most penalized team in the conference — and have been for much of Mora’s tenure — and arguably haven’t made maximum use of the dynamic Paul Perkins.