Derby preps, Part VIII: The Lexington

Hard to believe, but after this one, the prep season is over for the Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses will take place at Churchill Downs two weeks from Saturday.

The last time a horse came won the Lexington and then went onto win the Derby was Charismatic in 1999. After winning the Lexington at odds of 12-1, he lit up the tote board in Louisville at odds of 31-1.

Can something like that happen here? Well, someone is going to win the Lexington but that doesn’t mean that same colt will knock down the doors at Churchill Downs in two weeks. In fact, it’s a safe bet the winner of the Derby is not going to be running in the Lexington.

But it’s still a horse race and a competitive one at that. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who went 1-2 (Monba-Cowboy Cal) in last week’s Blue Grass, has the 3-1 morning line favorite in Atoned, who finished second behind Big Truck in the Tampa Bay Derby and then was a non-threatening fourth in the Illinois Derby. If Atoned wins here, he’ll pocket the winner’s share of $201,500 and jump into the Derby mix.

He is currently in 29th place on the graded stakes earnings list with $130,000. The top 20 qualify for the Derby. Others in the Lexington who need a financial boost to get to Louisville are Tomcito (25th place, $151,292), and Racecar Rhapsody (33rd, $90,871).

There appears to be ample early speed in this race with the likes of Bob Baffert’s Samba Rooster and St. Joe, who has won both starts at Keeneland, both of them sprints.

Atoned, who will be ridden for the first time by Edgar Prado (who has alredy committed to ride Adriano in the Derby), has run speed numbers of 93 in his last two. Salute the Sarge has won four of seven and already has a spot in the Derby (earnings wise). He had quite the battle last year when he split two races with the highly regarded Georgie Boy, who is off the Triple Crown trail.

Racecar Rhapsody has only started once this year, finishing fourth in the Lane’s End. Expect more from him in the second start. Tomcito didn’t do much in Florida Derby, beaten 12 lengths while finishing third.