Saturday, April 26, 2008

"In And Out" And Down

A new Angus Reid online poll, which shows a noticeable swing in support, relative to a poll done one month ago. The numbers:

Conservatives 33%Liberals 30%NDP 20%Greens 8%

Quite a change from the last Angus offering, and the authors of the poll attribute much of the swing to the "in and out" scandal. Angus Reid March 28:

Conservatives 36%Liberals 26%NDP 18%Greens 9%

A 10 point lead for this firm, has become a statistical tie. The culprit:

A majority of those polled – 58 per cent – believe that the Conservatives' credibility has been damaged by their ongoing dispute with Elections Canada over the so-called "in and out" financing of the last election, which resulted in the RCMP raid of party headquarters more than a week ago.

I've argued for quite some time that Dion is hurt within this current strategy. This poll confirms a sense of "weakness", but it also offers a interesting statistic, which could be used in a future campaign:

The Prime Minister was rated by 51 per cent as strong and decisive, for instance, compared to only 8 per cent who see Dion that way.

An absolutely abysmal number, which translates to killing Dion slowly by abstaining. However, this finding offers a possible narrative for Dion, one that might be considered surprising, given the previous Liberal challenges with ethics. Dion's major strength, his integrity, nobody questions his honesty (see quotes from all the other party leaders). Could Dion run on a return to honest government?:

Dion does outrank Harper on being honest and trustworthy, though, with 38 per cent of respondents seeing him that way compared to 33 per cent who said they'd describe Harper that way.

That finding is all the more striking, given the overall low opinion of Dion, it shows that he has political capital when it comes to the basic question of trust. Clearly, this is Dion's strength, and if any Liberal is capable of arguing this line, it's Dion. I've always thought an election ad, with old quotes from the other leaders commenting on what an honorable man Dion is would be a powerful symbol.

The regional numbers show the same trends in Ontario others have found. The Liberals lead by 8%, when just last month Angus Reid had a tie. Interestingly, in Quebec, the parties are also tied, when just last month the Conservatives were the clear second choice (in line with CROP and Leger). This poll also shows relative gains for the Liberals in British Columbia, the NDP in the Prairies.

It's still too early to gauge the fallout of "in and out", but it might just be the issue that works in concert with things like the Cadman affair, to chip away at the government's credibility. The conclusion of this pollster, it has had a damaging effect. The good news, unless you are a Conservative, it's far from over.

Hmmm, I expected a greater drop for the Cons, but lets see what the other polls say. The Reid one is usually the outlier as you would say?

On a side note, the NP is making a big deal about the Iggy fundraising, making it out to to be subversive. Iggy showed a tape of his concession speech at this party. I was actually there for that speech that fateful night and it was a great speech and actually changed my opinion of Iggy. However, its too bad he didnt save that performance for the actual convention speech, as it was sub-par and I remember that it didnt really capture the attention of the room, besides his own supporters. I am not convinced that there is a coup in the works, it seems more like they were reminiscing, since it was a night to clear off his campaign debt. However, the NP was making out that the Iggy group feels that Dion's failure is inevitable, so why hide their ambitions? I think the Libs have made their bed with Dion and have no choice but to proceed with him at this point. Therefore, if the Iggy group are planning a coup its a little late in the game and would result with a lot of eggs on a lot of faces. And that's my morning ramble.

And the AR poll of March 28 was crediable enough to compare to, so as to show an upswing in Lib support? Anyways, Cons losing 3 points in the face of RCMP with flack jackets, camerals rolling, is within the margin of error, is a relief, I thought it would be much worse. But I guess most Cdns get the difference between a party spending it's own money, and a party spending stolen taxpayers money.

The Dippers increase by 2%, tho within the margin of error, is backed by their grassroots:

I agree that Dion needs to show decisiveness (go to election). Numbers on honesty and trustworthiness are definitely a great strength that can be built on. No way Quebec buys Harper's environment policy in the next election.

I dont know how you smart fellas can take this poll as credible...it is an online poll...say that pri-k pierre calls his conservative buddies to vote and there are a lot of them calling into onair programs & polls praising the cons to stack against the liberals ...how can this be counted as a poll. and the ndp is no different....I know I use to be one before I smartened up. On the air on CPAC yesterday callin show ...the hosts remarked how everyone seemed to like mr.harper.....it was stacked.

an online poll is not to be confused with one of those self-selected call in or e-mail in "polls" that newspapers. This is based on a random survey from a panel of hundreds of thousands of Canadians. The Angus Reid online poll was almost dead on in 4 provincial elections this year.

I agree that some regional numbers look a bit suspect - but that is often the case in any of the phone polls of 1,000. I tend to ignore the regionals except for maybe Ontario and Quebec.

Its true that Angus Reid shows better numbers for the NDP than others (and worse numbers for the Greens) - but whose to say who is right and who is wrong? I think that given the current Liberal vacillation and weak leadership, plus Tory scandals - It's pretty believable that the NDP would be slightly higher than in the last election (with most of the gains being in Quebec). I think if i were a betting man I'd sooner put money on the NDP getting 20% in the next election than I would on the Greens getting 13%!!

The Dippers numbers are surprising, but let the rest of the polls come in for this round and see where we are. My prediction is, if you do the poll of polls deal is:

Libs 31Cons 28NDP 16Greens 12Bloc 8Undecided 5

I do not think the Libs will capitalize too much on this, as the Dion question still persists and the whole adscam deal still sits over their heads, especially with recent events. Whereas the Cons will take a small hit down to the lower end of their base. The Dippers and the Greens may capitalize as they are seen to be above the fray. The Bloc may gain a little, but they are who they are.

There is also a Decima poll out, although it's hard to find much online:

Liberals 33%Cons 31%

In Ontario, the gap is getting larger:

Liberals 42%Cons 29%

That is the first poll I've seen with the Cons in the 20's. Last week's Decima poll had it 40% for the Liberals and 32% for the Cons. The above numbers could very well translate into a Liberal minority, if they were to hold.