Official Game Day Thread: Packers @ Jets - 10/31: WIN 9 - 0

Pretty much a classic statement game. Jets are riding high and so are the Pack after an emotional win against the Vikings. Packers win and we are back near the top of power rankings. We lose and it cements the jets SB contenders with Pitt. This was the game alot of people rightfully circled when the schedule came out.

On the surface, it's easy to think that all is well for the Jets. They're tied for the best record in the league, rank in the top three of the SRS standings and are in the top five of nearly every set of power rankings out there. New York's only loss came by a single point to another consensus powerhouse, Baltimore. And in that game, the Ravens only touchdown followed a penalty on a field goal attempt earlier in the drive. Even still, despite 14 penalties and a bunch of ugly looking offensive plays, the Jets were in position to win the game at the end until Dustin Keller channeled his inner Helen and ran out of bounds before the first down marker on fourth down. The short of it? The Jets have beaten some good teams, and lost a toss-up game to another elite team. So surely the Jets are elite, right?

I'm not so sure. Digging into the statistics, the Jets look like a classic team that's not as good as their record. For starters, they lead the league with a sparkling +11 turnover margin. That's because the Jets tied an NFL record by going four straight games without an interception.

Yes, there are explanations one could give for the Jets great streak when it comes to protecting the ball. But most of them are meritless. From 1990 to 2009, 28 teams had a turnover margin of +9 or better through five games. Those teams, on average, had 5.2 turnovers, forced 15.6, and won 3.9 games. The Jets have had one turnover, forced 12, and won 4.0 games. But what should we expect for New York over the next eleven games? One way to answer that is to take a look at how those 28 teams did in their remaining 11 games:

Teams Int Fum OppInt OppFum Margin Wins
First 5 gms 2.6 2.6 9.1 6.5 10.5 3.9
Last 11 gms 12.6 8.1 12.1 8.5 -0.2 5.9
What more needs to be said than this: the 28 best teams with respect to turnover margin through five games, of the last 20 years, turned the ball over more often than their opponents did over their remaining 11 games. They went from a 0.786 winning percentage over the first third of the season to a 0.532 winning percentage over the final two-thirds. If a team's success is predicated on winning the turnover battle, that team isn't likely to keep winning for long.

There were 20 teams from 1990 to 2009 that threw just one or zero interceptions after five games, averaging 0.7 interceptions thrown. Over the last 11 games, they averaged 11.4 interceptions (and their opponents threw only 9.8). This goes along with the mountains of evidence that Jason and I have posted about how unpredictable interceptions are from year to year, which, ironically enough, was one of the reasons I said the Jets would be undervalued this year. Mark Sanchez was tied for second in the league in interceptions in '09, and I said that's not the sort of thing that's likely to continue. Well, he's done quite the 180. Don't be surprised if he does another one. It's tempting to think that the game has slowed down for Sanchez and the Jets run-oriented offense means they won't have many turnovers this season: but there's almost no evidence to indicate that the Jets won't see their turnover margin regress towards zero for the rest of the season.

So where would the Jets be if they weren't doing so well when it comes to the turnover margin? Well, The Jets rank in the top five in rushing yards, rushing first downs and yards per carry; just like last season (minus Thomas Jones and Alan Faneca) the Jets rushing offense is elite. But the passing offense? The Jets rank just 27th in net yards per attempt. And, believe it or not, Sanchez is averaging fewer yards per pass and net yards per pass this season than last:

The Jets are letting Sanchez pass more, as evidenced by his jump to 180 yards per game despite throwing for fewer yards per pass; he's gone from 24.3 to 29.4 pass attempts per game.
Despite averaging fewer NY/A, his ANY/A has shot through the roof, thanks to sparkling touchdown and interception rates. While he's been better from a retrodictive standpoint, he hasn't been impressive from a predictive standpoint. And why is that?
Sanchez was a downfield thrower last season, actually ranking 7th in the league in yards per completion. The Jets wouldn't pass often, but when they would, they would attack downfield. As a result, Sanchez' 53.8 completion percentage was understandable for a rookie. Now, though, his YPC has dropped to just 11.3, right around league average. That would be acceptable if his completion percentage shot up to 60 or 65%; at just 55.1%, it's terrible.
So Sanchez is throwing more often, but more conservatively, and not very accurately. As long as he throws touchdowns and avoids interceptions, the Jets will be fine. But if his TD/INT ratio flips, the Jets could be in a lot of trouble.

The run defense has been just as good as the run offense, ranking in the top five in rushing yards allowed, rushing yards per carry allowed, and first downs allowed. But the pass defense -- the most dominant unit on any defense in the NFL last year -- has been the weak link. The pass defense ranks 23rd in yards allowed and 25th in touchdowns allowed, although the more relevant note is their 15th place ranking in net yards per attempt allowed. But the defense, usually the pass defense, has been much more inconsistent than it was in 2009. In every game outside of the Bills matchup, the defense has had its bad moments:

The Jets defense played well against the Ravens, but couldn't get off the field. Baltimore converted on 11 of 17 third downs, gained 6 more first downs via penalty (including on 3rd-and-28, two 3rd-and-10s and a 3rd-and-9) and held onto the ball for 38:32.
The Jets sleptwalk through the start of the Patriots game. New England held onto the ball for nearly 16 of the first 17 minutes of the game, dicing through the Jets defense en route to a 10-0 lead.
In Miami, Chad Henne threw for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jets.
Against the Vikings, the Jets imploded for most of the second half. During one stretch, Brett Favre went 9/16 for 192 yards and three touchdowns. Favre completed a 3rd-and-19, a 3rd-and-17 (both for touchdowns), 3rd-and-15 and a 3rd-and-12 in one ten-minute strech.
New York's defense, thanks to the other-worldly play of Darrelle Revis, allowed just 4.6 NY/A in 2009. With a 6.1 NY/A allowed average this year, the Jets defense has gone from a dominant unit to an average one. On the surface, the Jets look like a mediocre team: an anemic passing offense and an average pass defense drag down a team that's dominant at running and stopping the run.

But while the statistics don't portend good things for the Jets going forward, I'm still optimistic about them. Why? Maybe because I'm a blind, Jets homer. You decide. But:

Yes, Sanchez has regressed in certain respects, but an 8/0 TD/INT ratio still means something. More importantly, Sanchez's NY/A ratio has been dragged down by throwing 44 pass attempts in the rain against the Vikings. He played terribly against the Ravens, but they have a great pass defense and perhaps the Jets put too much on his plate. Against Miami, he set a career high with a 9.1 yards per attempt average. Against Buffalo, he wasn't asked to do much, but still threw 2 touchdowns and made no mistakes in a 38-14 shellacking. And he helped save the season in New England, when he completed 70% of his passes, threw for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns with the Jets' back against the wall after an ugly first five quarters of the season. Most importantly, he gets Santonio Holmes back for the rest of the season. With the way Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards have been playing, I would be surprised if Sanchez doesn't still end the year with a higher yards per attempt average than he had in 2009.
The pass defense has underachieved, but that may be due to missing Revis and OLB Calvin Pace for most of the year. Once Revis is 100%, the Jets will boast two former All-Pro cornerbacks and could be every bit as dominant against the pass as they were last season.
What do you think?

I'm gonna risk forfeiting my Packer fan badge. (My oldest son says I'm not a true fan when I think the Pack will lose an upcoming game.) It was exciting to see the Packers win Sunday night, but Favre and Childress did not expose the Packer's weakness in the secondary. The Jets will be a different story. They've had a bye week, Ryan will have Sanchez going after our weaknesses. It's not going to be pretty.

On the defensive side of the ball, they are going to bring pressure early and often. They won't be sitting back trying to "tip" passes like the Vikings. This leads to a recipe for interceptions by Cromartie and Revis.

Not to mention the quality of play by AFC teams as compared to NFC teams is much higher.

The Packers spent so much time and energy preparing for the Vikings that this will be a "let down" game. We are going to get our butts handed to us on a silver platter.

I'm gonna risk forfeiting my Packer fan badge. (My oldest son says I'm not a true fan when I think the Pack will lose an upcoming game.) It was exciting to see the Packers win Sunday night, but Favre and Childress did not expose the Packer's weakness in the secondary. The Jets will be a different story. They've had a bye week, Ryan will have Sanchez going after our weaknesses. It's not going to be pretty.

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i'm not buying it. Sanchez hasn't looked good all year. Yeah, I know they have a great record, but its because they blitz hard and run hard. We might be in trouble with their blitzes, but we ARE good against the run, and Sanchez makes some bad throws that hopefully our D can turn into points going the other way.

I'm not saying we gonna win, but if we lose it will be to their D and Run game, NOT Sanchez.

you people forget that sanchez is NOT a good quarterback. i mean jay cutler got to hide for a few weeks too, now the league sees whats up with him. i think they play our D and just hit a wall. our problem will be getting past their D. Which i think they can do with our reciever depth, and jones has been great stepping up. revis and DRC cant cover everyone on the field. we have the WR depth to beat them. not to mention if bjax steps up.

the X factor this game, as always will be clay matthews. if he can get to sanchez or at least get some pressure on him with cullen (pray to god he plays) this will be an easy victory imo if the d plays like they did vs the vikes

i'm not buying it. Sanchez hasn't looked good all year. Yeah, I know they have a great record, but its because they blitz hard and run hard. We might be in trouble with their blitzes, but we ARE good against the run, and Sanchez makes some bad throws that hopefully our D can turn into points going the other way.

I'm not saying we gonna win, but if we lose it will be to their D and Run game, NOT Sanchez.

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Their D and run game will definitely have an impact. Tomlinson still has it. But don't sell Sanchez and his receivers short. Granted he is ranked 16th among QBs, which makes him "middle of the road", but he's gone up against some challenging opponents. I'm not sold on our "back up" secondary. Even C Wood got torched some against the Vikings. Chilly/Favre weren't taking advantage of those situations though.

Their D and run game will definitely have an impact. Tomlinson still has it. But don't sell Sanchez and his receivers short. Granted he is ranked 16th among QBs, which makes him "middle of the road", but he's gone up against some challenging opponents. I'm not sold on our "back up" secondary. Even C Wood got torched some against the Vikings. Chilly/Favre weren't taking advantage of those situations though.

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Backup secondary? seriously? theyve been playing pretty well considering. our secondary problems have been caused alot by over the middle throws, which is the ILB's job to disrupt or alter the lanes so its not easy. blame hawk and bishop(who seemed to finally have the light come on in this regard vs the vikes and you see the results).

Besides, we'll have al and bigby back for the game. its going to be almost sad with how badly the sanchize will be.

I'll be shocked if the Packers win this game. I had this as a loss when I first saw it on the schedule. The Jets are coming off their bye, are playing at home, and the Packers defensive line is banged up. This doesn't bode well against a team that has an excellent OL, and a solid running game. I think the Jets will control the line of scrimmage, and dominate time of possesion. Reavis is also fully recovered from his hamstring injury, and will be on Jennings all game, likely making him a non-factor in this game. I just don't see how the Packers win this game, unless Sanchez has an exceptionally bad game.

This will be more of a test for the Jets in a way. If the Jets can beat the Packers coming off their win against the Vikings, people will hush up about the Jets not being as good as their record would lead you to believe. It will also be a huge test for the Packers. This game can very well decide where this season is going to lead us in terms of the playoffs. If our D is healthy and strong (Harris and Bigby welcome back!) and Rogers is on is game with protection from his O-Line, then I see no reason why we cannot win this game. The Packers are a good team, they just need to play like it. I am nervous, this season so far has been murder on my poor frazzled nerves, but I also have a light within me that is growing stronger against the darkness. Our faith has been tested and will be tested yet again. Beat those Jets!!! I really hope they win, I personally loathe the Jets more than any other team!!! Get 'em Pack!!!!

IMO this game will come down to: 1) How well our Oline blocks. 2) How well we can stop the run. If the Oline does what it did against the Vikes, we will shred their overconfident defense. The jets are all about blitzing, and if we can slow that process down and run the ball effectively, or give Rodgers the proper time in the pocket, I see us having no problem picking them apart. As far as our defense goes, Capers' D has got to be one of the hardest defenses to read (from a QBs standpoint) in the league, and since sanchez is in his "sophmore season" (Michael Irvins words) I dont see him being able to read the disguises that Capers will throw his way.

IMO this game will come down to: 1) How well our Oline blocks. 2) How well we can stop the run. If the Oline does what it did against the Vikes, we will shred their overconfident defense. The jets are all about blitzing, and if we can slow that process down and run the ball effectively, or give Rodgers the proper time in the pocket, I see us having no problem picking them apart. As far as our defense goes, Capers' D has got to be one of the hardest defenses to read (from a QBs standpoint) in the league, and since sanchez is in his "sophmore season" (Michael Irvins words) I dont see him being able to read the disguises that Capers will throw his way.

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I'm not too excited about what the O-line did against the Vikings. Even Aaron Rodgers said the Vikings were pulling up on their rush to help cover their problems in the secondary. Don't expect the Jets D to hold back and try to tip passes.

This will be more of a test for the Jets in a way. If the Jets can beat the Packers coming off their win against the Vikings, people will hush up about the Jets not being as good as their record would lead you to believe. It will also be a huge test for the Packers. This game can very well decide where this season is going to lead us in terms of the playoffs. If our D is healthy and strong (Harris and Bigby welcome back!) and Rogers is on is game with protection from his O-Line, then I see no reason why we cannot win this game. The Packers are a good team, they just need to play like it. I am nervous, this season so far has been murder on my poor frazzled nerves, but I also have a light within me that is growing stronger against the darkness. Our faith has been tested and will be tested yet again. Beat those Jets!!! I really hope they win, I personally loathe the Jets more than any other team!!! Get 'em Pack!!!!

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Well, I'll say this much. I love the optimism I see on this board. I hate to be a wet blanket. But, will I get to start an "I told you so" thread when it all goes down the toilet against the Jets?

wow....some of you people are seriously underestimating Sanchez. Trust me, I'm not saying he is an elite QB because he is far from it....however, he is better than what you are giving him credit for. He will make some dopey throws and imature mistakes...but his maturity is far greater than last year. This is because the Jets run game has not really missed a beat....the Off. line has been very solid allowing for more time to throw to Holmes, Edwards, J-Co...Keller and LT....all very formidable weapons. I can't see Jackson running for a lot vs. the Jets run def. and with Revis at 100 %...Cromartie playing very well.....your WR's can be kept in Check. Rodgers is always dangerous as is Clay Matthews (hopefully Woody can hold him off long enough for Sanchez to see the field) GB has some fairly significant injuries....and while I don't see this as a blow out for the Jets....it is a VERY winnable game

IMO this game will come down to: 1) How well our Oline blocks. 2) How well we can stop the run. If the Oline does what it did against the Vikes, we will shred their overconfident defense. The jets are all about blitzing, and if we can slow that process down and run the ball effectively, or give Rodgers the proper time in the pocket, I see us having no problem picking them apart. As far as our defense goes, Capers' D has got to be one of the hardest defenses to read (from a QBs standpoint) in the league, and since sanchez is in his "sophmore season" (Michael Irvins words) I dont see him being able to read the disguises that Capers will throw his way.

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the jets have not been blitzing as much lately...they were getting burned on a lot of 3rd and longs when they blitzed

Billechiks Def is also a tricky one to read and Sanchez had no problem with them

Game on! You hate the Bears more than the Vikings!? My hit/hate list is: Jets, Vikings, Bears, Cowboys, Eagles.

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I'm probably quite a bit older than you, so yes, my hatred for the Bears runs deep and wide. I don't like the Vikings, but the Bears are an abomination! And Bears fans are just a little lower than a slug under a rock.