1. Can you answer the same quarterback question everyone's been answering since the spring game?

Sweet hot pickle John The Baptist, the fictional questioners are just as persistent as the real ones. One last time: I expect Denard Robinson to get the start against UConn. Rumor has it the team has already been informed.

The premium sites are engaged in a war of information about the #2. Scout is claiming Gardner has haxored the offense and will plug into the matrix sooner rather than later; Rivals says Forcier's come on like gangbusters of late and is hinting he'll end up starting sooner rather than later. Both of their mumbles are of the "I'm just saying" variety where blame can't be assigned retroactively but credit sure can; both are seriously hedging on Denard Robinson.

I don't buy either much, but I buy the latter way more than the former. My personal obsevations are in line with UMGoBlog's assessment of the spring performances of each. Gardner:

@ the :24 mark: here you can see the game moving really fast around him. His feet slow down because his brain is working overtime to process all the info available. Finally, he leans back away from the contact on his delivery, which will normally cause the ball to sail, or fall well short.

@ the :38 mark: this may be his "can't teach that" moment. With Tate and DR, we have to roll the QB one way or the other to attack the middle. They cannot see over the line. Here, DG confidently steps into the pocket and throws a nice, although low, pass in a deep in route. As he continues to develop, he physical stature may end up being a large advantage for him in the QB race.

@ the 1:15 mark: we see some of the TF-like play making ability. He escapes the rush, but works back INTO the pocket to keep all his options alive down the field. Very good poise for the young guy in his first spring.

@ the 1:55 mark: this is not the first example on this film, but the ball HAS to come out quicker here. Giving the LB/DB time to read this play is a huge mistake and really hung the RB out to dry. Again, no doubt understandable with DG's inexperience, but this is a HUGE thing that must improve before I will call him "Game Ready".

@ the 2:23 mark: SHEESH! Protect the ball above all else, especially at your own goal line. As soon as he felt the hands around him, that ball should have been thrown to the Off. Coord. on the sideline. Live to fight another play.

It keeps going like that, promise alternating with the freshman mistakes we've gotten all too accustomed to the past couple years. Reports from the fall scrimmage, which was all of two weeks ago, are similar. Downplaying the one horrible interception is "a mistake but…" neglects Gardner's tendency to just chuck things when he got pressure. It didn't happen often, but when it did he responded—all together now—like a freshman. I'm done with this true freshman stuff. We've seen the chart, right? Michigan ran out a drilled-from-birth prodigy last year, got significantly above average performance from him, and still had a creaky offense. Devin Gardner is not that good yet. I have every confidence he will be that good in time, but not yet.

@ the :59 mark: he is rolling left and fires a strike over the middle. I cannot overstate the difficulty of this throw. Very Impressive.

@ the 1:30 mark: he cannot find a target and tucks and runs. It will be beneficial at some point for him to learn to 1)identify targets earlier 2)throw it away 3)get out of bounds and avoid unnecessary hits.

@ the 1:40 mark: he makes a perfect read on the option. Watch the DE on the O's left side completely bite down on the run. Other Big Ten teams will not bite this hard. They know DR is the bigger threat. He will have to hand off more this year.

@ the 2:20 mark: he hits Roundtree for the 98 yarder. Beautiful touch on this pass! However, his throws out to the slots and RB's on the bubble screens and hitches need to be this accurate. They aren't yet.

Denard is ridiculous. He will be given the first shot because of this, and it will be up to him to keep it. No one can take it away from him; he'll have to give it away. If I had to put numbers on it, there's a 65% chance Denard is the primary quarterback, a 30% chance Tate is, and a 5% chance Devin is.

2. Why should I be excited at all when the "Rodriguez leap" amounted to finishing ninth in total and scoring offense in conference play?

Last year around about the Notre Dame game some very excitable people were proclaiming things about the Rodriguez Leap, something Doctor Saturday identified as a strong trend in Rodriguez-coached offenses to blow up in year two. Michigan's was coming from so far back and running in place when it came to quarterback experience, so that initial prowess ended up being a mirage. Michigan was way, way better, but still pretty meh. So the above conference stats exist.

While those may be literally true, they don't exactly feel right, do they? Michigan's offense did fall off considerably after a scorching start, but whenever that stat gets brought up it seems wrong. Michigan had the misfortune of missing two below-average defensive teams in Northwestern and Minnesota, after all.

That is more intuitively correct than raw things like points or yards per game and, since it is conference-only, sidesteps the Baby Seal U issue. Michigan's offense was seventh, a hair away from fifth. That's not good but it is a major step forward after they were last by a mile in '08.

Besides, it's possible they actually made the RR leap. Seriously. The problem is how far back they were coming from. As last year's preview noted:

…even if Rodriguez makes a leap similar to that turned in by his 2002 West Virginia team—probably the most comparable since they were coming from so far back—Michigan will only improve to 68th in total offense.

Sans BSU, Michigan would have finished 78th. With BSU they finished 59th, and since all the other teams that played super tomato cans didn't have them stripped out by when I say they would have finished 78th, splitting the difference seems reasonable. We're back to 68th in total offense again.

The best RR leaps to date were virtually identical improvements at Tulane and West Virginia where year two saw yardage output increase by 21%. If you discount BSU, Michigan went from 290 yards of total offense to 353. That's a 22% increase. While it's a lot easier to go from godawful to bad than go from bad to average or average to great, at previous stops Rodriguez had the luxury of installing an experienced quarterback in year two. With Michigan's chaos there (and Rodriguez's inability to get a viable quarterback in his first recruiting class), they did not have that luxury.

And here's the thing: with the quarterbacks going from freshmen to sophomores and some number of starters back ranging between seven and ten—depending on how you assess players like Roy Roundtree, Martavious Odoms, Patrick Omameh, Mark Huyge, Perry Dorrestein, and a couple others—isn't it plausible to expect another leap in year three? Tacking on 17%—the average yardage increase in previous RR leaps, discounting last year at Michigan—to Michigan's BSU-free yardage yields 414 yards per game for Michigan, which would be good for 32nd nationally.

So…

There was a leap,

It was hard to find because they were coming from so far back, and

There should be another leap this year.

This could be worth a small "woo," or something.

3. Can the running game take a… well… can it improve a… aw, hell, can it make a leap? The leap?

#

Year

YPC

1

2006

4.27

2

2003

4.25

3

2009

4.03

4

2007

3.97

5

2008

3.91

6

2005

3.89

7

2004

3.83

8

2002

3.82

9

2001

3.59

Last year Michigan obliterated their best YPC mark since the turn of the century, posting a 4.52 well clear of 2006's previous high water mark of 4.27. All right, yes, Michigan's demolition of Baby Seal U (54 carries, 461 yards) is heavily distorting, and if you pull it out Michigan's season YPC drops a half-yard. That drops it to third, as you can see at right. Since most of the seasons there had a nonconference cupcake that wasn't good but also wasn't quite as distorting (in 2006, for example, Michigan put up 246 yards on 51 carries against Vanderbilt in addition to their two MAC snacks), that sells '09 a short.

So. Despite missing their best and most critical lineman for most of the year, suffering a number of bad snaps that ended up looking like –20 yard carries as a result of that, and spending most of the year down at least one of their senior tailbacks, and running out freshman quarterbacks. Michigan posted one of the better YPC numbers of the last decade of Michigan football. They were solidly third. I'm throwing this on the pile of evidence that Rodriguez's approach to the ground game is just plain better than Carr's.

Meanwhile, I'm not too concerned about the lost personnel on the line. Omameh should be better than the Moosman/Huyge/frosh Omameh combo over the course of the year. Molk was clearly better than Moosman as a center, something that was addressed in the Illinois game:

Moosman is not as good as Molk on tough reach blocks. Lot of cutbacks against Illinois because the playside DT did not get sealed. Cutbacks are tougher sledding, usually.

Here's a successful run from Brown on which Moosman does not seal his guy and Brown has to hit it up behind Moosman in front of Schilling:

From what I've seen, Molk is more likely to actually get that block on the frontside. He won't do it all the time and the cutback can be effective but then you're relying on the backside block, which is often a tough one.

Ortmann to Huyge/Lewan probably won't matter much; tackles aren't that important in the spread 'n' shred run game. The only other losses are at tailback, where Minor managed just 96 carries a year ago. His average YPC was 5.2, only slightly better than the team average in I-A games. Brown, meanwhile, finished the above run like this:

TOUCH…

…doh.

It's not like either of the lost guys was 1) that great, 2) ever healthy, or 3) irreplaceable. Here's a preview of a stupid prediction: Michigan 2010 tops that YPC table.

4. What about the tackles?

Yeah… that's the thing. Michigan has depth and talent at the skill positions and the interior line. The quarterbacks have been discussed ad nauseum—while they won't be great the best of the three options available will be at least average and possibly (probably?) good. Michigan can take some hits and still expect good things to happen… except at tackle.

There Michigan has two guys who did not play well last year and two redshirt freshmen. Though Taylor Lewan has a boatload of hype he's just one guy, and a freshman at that. Meanwhile, Mark Huyge and Perry Dorrestein took turns playing Slight Hindrance To Guy Forcing Forcier Out Of The Pocket; both were benched for the other at some point. It's clearly the weak spot.

There are reasons to hope:

Experience helps out offensive linemen more than other position groups.

Huyge was undersized but is no longer.

Dorrestein was struggling with a back injury most of this year.

Frey's coaching saw Ortmann improve substantially in his final season.

Lewan does have a boatload of hype and provides a viable third option if one of the starters struggle.

A step forward is likely. Even so, at the end of the year the thing that will have held the offense back from great heights will probably be an inability to keep defensive ends away from the quarterback.

5. Well?

This rocket has two stages, the second of which should kick in this year. There's more experience everywhere, plenty of talent to go around, multiple options at quarterback, some of whom are scholarship non-freshmen: Michigan's offense will be much better in 2010. Now for the greater-than-less-thans!

As stated above, RR Leap 2 would hop Michigan up to 32nd nationally in yardage even without the benefit of a tomato can I-AA game. Put that back in and Michigan should find itself in the bottom third of the nation's top 25 offenses.

Things that can make this not happen: tackles are bad and or injured. Quarterbacks do not progress like they should. The tailback situation is a muddled heap of mediocrity. Things that can make this pessimistic: Stonum blows up. Toussaint or Cox blows up. Denard really is that good.

Last Year's Stupid Predictions

ESSENTIALLY CORRECT IF SLIGHTLY OPTIMISITIC: Minor misses two games with injury [note: chalk!]. [Minor missed Western and Ohio State; he also sat out against DSU, if that matters, and was seriously limited for much of the rest of the season.]

RIGHT DESPITE INJURY: People expect Vincent Smith to be the 2010 starter.

WRONG BECAUSE OF INJURY: Junior Hemingway is your leading downfield receiver (ie: Odoms is in the running but we aren't counting screens). [Roundtree blew up late; Hemingway finished well behind Mathews amongst outside WRs.]

Darryl Stonum does not exactly go Chris Henry on the planet but does greatly increase production via a series of big plays: 30 catches, 650 yards, 6 touchdowns.

Michigan breaks out the triple option with regularity, using Hopkins as the dive back and Shaw/Smith the pitch guy. They also dig out those WVU formations where the slot motions into the backfield, with Grady the man beneficiary.

Stonum......i threw that O/U game earlier in the summer about how many guys would exceed their career catches with single season numbers this year.......good to see you're aboard with Stonum pulling off that feat.....those are great numbers for Michigan if he hits those stats you've predicted.

Stonum shows potential last year, but I don't see how his yds per catch(21.6) exceeds that of every season put up by AC or Braylon Edwards, save for AC's freshman year. Irrational exuberance at its best.

I'm guessing that Hopkins see alot of the ball this year. The other backs seem too small and prone to injury.

I'm pretty sure that is not the triple option he is referring to. The one that I know and love is a zone read with the running back while the the slot comes over and becomes the pitchman for the QB if he keeps it.

I'm expecting the entire offensive unit to be much better, and much more consistent then they were last season. Also they will continue to get better each and every week as the season progresses. I'm very optimistic about this team. More depth, better leadership, and elite speed. We're definitely going to put up a lot of points this season, that should see us ease into a bowl game with a minimum of 7 wins. 1 day til we begin to show the world that Michigan is back to stay.

I obviously disagree with Cox being out of the top three in touches, but that's just opinion.

However, the Stonum thing surprises me. I really don't think he's going to average 21+ yards a catch, especially if Denard's going to take the majority of the snaps. Will he catch more passes? Almost definitely. Will he make some big plays? Sure. But that's too many yards.

in option based offenses (Chris Henry/Demaryius Thomas) are higher than the guys that play in pro style offenses (Braylon). They catch fewer passes so a couple 50 or 60 yard bombs inflate the averages more.

While that's sometimes true, it hasn't been at Michigan. Stonum's average yards per catch last year was around 14 or so. Why would it suddenly inflate by 50%? That's like saying a running back's average yards would go from 4.0 to 6.0 or 5.0 to 7.5. It's just not likely at all.

Anyway, I've made my fair share of aggressive predictions...but this one seems a bit too over the top.

Can we just clarify that almost every BCS team in college football plays a BSU? It doesn't seem fair to try and negate Michigan's stats from the Delaware State game just because, considering you would really have to take every other team's BSU stat out of the equation to really make it accurate and fair.

Forcier and Denard will be Juniors, both (most likely) with a year +/- of starting experience and physical growth, with a (hopefully) redshirt freshman Vince Young clone as a third-best option

Every running back (barring transfer/injury) from the stable returns with experience and size.

The offensive loses Schilling and Dorrestein but returns a 5th year senior tackle (Huyge), a Rimington candidate senior (Molk), a RS Jr Omameh with a year of experience, and sees the ascencion of two to three of the hyped Lewan, Barnum, Washington and Schofield, by that point a RS Soph, RS Junior, RS Soph, RS Soph, respectively.

Return every receiver-type thing except Martell Webb, with senior seasons in the offing for Stonum, Hemingway, Odoms, Grady, and Koger, Roundtree a RS Junior and Stokes a junior, not to mention a year in the program for the 2010 haul

Depending on the actual progress in 2010, 2011 could be another Rodriguez Leap, or at the least a projected improvement barring 2007-level BLANK Hating God attacks.

And if you're wondering why all the kid receivers in 2010, think of 2012, when the O-Line, HB and QB depth charts will be populated by a bevy of upperclassman 2- to 4-year starters, but the receiver corps. facing the exodus of Koger, Stonum, Odoms, Grady and Hemingway.

Rich Rod got some RBs, his receivers, and his offensive linemen in 2008, and redshirted the linemen. Then in 2009 he got a few more linemen, the bulk of his RBs, and his QBs. This means there's a big chunk of guys on the offense with 2009-12 eligibility, and we've so far seen only their freshman campaign.

We're seeing something different than the typical Rodriguez Leap, where the leftovers of the previous regime are tossed into a mixer with freshmen, and then pop with a mix of old guys and sophomores, progressing slowly as the team transitions to completely RR-built system.

Michigan, however, had to play 2008 as a scratch year, since RR didn't get his QB. 2009 wasn't a Rodrigez Leap made of sophomores and the best part of the leftovers, but the freshman campaign of a totally rebuilt corps.

I think our offense is going to Good this year, and hella sweet in at least one of the following two.

Our defense, on the other hand, is in horrible shape and will not be good this year, next year or the year after that.

"Our defense, on the other hand, is in horrible shape and will not be good this year, next year or the year after that."

Oh, come on -- the defense might be good the year after next. Some of these freshmen dbs are pretty talented and the Josh Furmans of the world will have adjusted to linebacker. So I think there is defensive hope the year after next. How's that for giddy optimism!

Hey Brian, I am legitimately asking this, not trying to make a point because I really don't know with the research I've done. West Virginia obviously doesn't have the youtube standing that Michigan does, but based on my memory from WVU games in the Rodriguez era and from highlight packages I've seen on youtube, I haven't seen much (usually none) motion in Rodriguez's spread. Do you have any video showing slots motioning into the backfield from Rod's WVU glory days? I only ask because Rodriguez seems to employ a less complex version of the spread (I am not at all saying less effective). He has used jet/slot motion extremely little if at all at Michigan. Just wondering. I would love to see that wrinkle added.

But Michigan has been slowly downloading and installing Rodriguez's Clemson/WVU playbook for the 3 years at 1200 baud.

The last bullet point would be a very welcome development because, once fully installed honestly don't know how you would stop it, save for Michigan's own turnovers/mistakes. It is a highly effective offense.

Michigan breaks out the triple option with regularity, using Hopkins as the dive back and Shaw/Smith the pitch guy. They also dig out those WVU formations where the slot motions into the backfield, with Grady the man beneficiary.

This piece is very important, and a very big part of what made Clemson under Woodrow Dantzler and West Virginia under Rasheed Marshall and Pat White so damn frustrating. Keying in on the QB in hopes of stopping the play progression was frequently the first fatal mistake of Rodriguez's opponents.

Completely agree. Outside of UofM, GaTech has been one of my favorite teams to watch lately because I LOVE the triple option. It would surprise me to see UofM run it though, I havne't seen any clips of anything resembling an option game. I don't remember our QBs ever "pitching" the ball in an option manner. But it would be awesome if we could go from the base offesense we've been running and throw in some triple option.

I agree about GaTech. And unlike GT, UM has an actual passing threat, meaning that even when it looks like the option is in effect, there is a chance the QB will just step back and lob the ball to a WR coming back behind the LBs/Safeties.

Great breakdown. I agree that Grady will be a bigger part of the offense this year, especially if they really do break out all of the WVU playbook.

I agree that Denard will start most of the season, but at some point during the Big 10 season he will struggle and Tate will get the nod for a couple of games. I'm sure Denard will blow up against UConn, ND, and some of the worse early-season defenses, but at some point teams are going to make him throw the ball and hit him hard every time he tries to run. Maybe he'll surprise me, but I guess I want to see DR produce on the field before I will annoint him the presumptive starter after the UConn game.

"I'm throwing this on the pile of evidence that Rodriguez's approach to the ground game is just plain better than Carr's."

While RR may have proven to have a better run game in non conference, his run game has not been near as effective as Carr's where it counts, in conference. Since 2001, RR's run game in 2008 would have ranked fourth in YPC. In '09? Dead last.

2004- 4.21

2006- 4.08

2003- 4.00

2008- 3.94

2005- 3.87

2002- 3.85

2007- 3.41

2001- 3.41

2009- 3.25

I'm sorry, but RR has not proven to be near as effective as Lloyd when running the ball in the Big 10. I'm not saying he can't, but when '08 was actually better than '09, you've got to be a little worried. RR needs to learn how to run in the Big 10, or we're not going anywhere, and he likely IS going somewhere. If you can't win in conference, you can't win, period.