A Look Into The Next Few Chances Of Thunderstorms

By garylezak, on August 30th, 2018

Good morning bloggers,

As August is inching towards its ending, we are finally getting some more consistent rainfalls. Today’s thunderstorms had more organization than most complexes of thunderstorms that have struggled in our region this entire season.

Kansas City was just north of the center of this MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). The thunderstorms continued into the late afternoon producing a cold pool of rain cooled air:

This is likely going to be a factor for where thunderstorms redevelop tonight. If the cold pool washes away and the warm air is able to surge back in, the thunderstorms will form near the Iowa border. If it holds together long enough, and the warmer air doesn’t take over, then the thunderstorms may form closer to KC. It is something I should be able to identify by the 10 PM newscast tonight.

And, then next week. The LRC forecast of a potential tropical system has already verified. The National Hurricane Center has a similar risk to the one that was made by Weather2020 8 months ago. It is in the same spot for the same time frame. It does not mean there will be a tropical storm or hurricane, however. We will monitor this region closely. It is quite obviously as forecast just by looking at the GFS model output for early next week. And, there is a flow from this region to over Kansas City. This may lead to an increased chance of thunderstorms near KC. If a very organized storm forms, like a tropical storm or hurricane, it would likely cause sinking air near KC. The impacts will be better defined in the next few days.

This forecast map above shows the precipitation and clouds forecast by the GFS model for Tuesday. Let’s see how this evolves.