Thursday, March 3, 2011

Northstar picked up another 13 inches on top in the past 24 hours bringing the storm total to 15 inches and breaking the biggest seasonal snowfall total in the past 25 years set in 04/05. Northstar is now at 451 inches on the season beating out the 438 inches back in 04/05. Sun and clouds today with maybe a few more snow showers maybe adding up to an inch or two more throughout the day.

Temps warm nicely on Friday and Saturday into the 30's & 40's ahead of the next storm arriving Saturday night. The models are looking a little more positive with the details of the storm for Sunday and Monday. They are showing snow levels slightly lower so I feel a little more confident they may not go much above the base lodge. They also show the precip being fairly light during the warm part of the storm on Sunday with the heaviest precip to our North.

Then a cold front approaches on Sunday night and drops the snow levels below lake level. Models are showing the heaviest precip coming with the cold front so we could get decent snow even at lake level Sunday night into Monday. Models are showing only .25-.5 inches of liquid ahead of the cold front, so around 3-6 inches on top. Then an inch or more of liquid with the cold front and with the snow showers behind the front on Monday. That would mean we could get 6-12 inches in the Village and a storm total of up to 2 feet on top.

A break Tuesday-Thursday next week as the ridge moves into the Central Pacific. Models this morning are putting it a little further East around 140-150w instead of 150-160w. That would just prevent the storms from digging as much off the coast and not be quite as strong. It looks like back to back cold storms Friday & Sunday the 11th & 13th. Depending on how far the ridge allows them to dig off the coast will determine how much snow but these are cold storms with snow levels below lake level.

Looks like another break around mid-month before another storm approaches the coast around the 19th. The ridge in the Pacific may begin to amplify and expand North the third week of March causing this storm to be a cut-off. If not then subsequent storms may be as we get into cut-off low season heading into spring. I am expecting the storms to begin to lose their mojo towards the end of the month as the jetstream weakens an moves further North for the spring. We have at least 3-4 more potentially good storms before then.

I will post the snowpack, water numbers, and a February recap sometime over the next few days. BA