Dante Roscini

After a two-decades-long career in finance, Dante joined the Harvard Business School faculty in 2008. He is a member of the Business, Government, and the International Economy Unit. He teaches both the first year required course that gives the name to the Unit and the second year elective course Managing International Trade and Investment. He was awarded the L.E. Simmons Fellowship for outstanding professor coming from practice in 2012.

His publications relate to sovereign debt, monetary policy, central banking, and international investment. His work concentrates on the politics, institutions, and macroeconomics of a country’s development, fiscal and monetary policies, the management of international trade, foreign direct investment, international portfolio investment, and frameworks for risk assessment and mitigation by agents that invest and trade transnationally.

Before coming to HBS Prof. Roscini spent twenty years in senior positions at three leading US investment banks in New York and London where he ran large, global businesses. He was a Managing Director and Head of European Capital Markets for Goldman Sachs, Head of Global Equity Capital Markets and Head of the European Capital Markets and Financing Group for Merrill Lynch where he was also a member of the Capital Commitments Committee and of the Managing Directors Promotions Committee. Finally, he was Chairman of Capital Markets for Morgan Stanley, a board member of Morgan Stanley International Bank, Country Head of Italy as well as Chairman of FONSPA a mortgage bank.

He has been, and is currently, a member of the board or the advisory board of public and private, industrial and financial companies. He is a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Association in New York and of the Atlantic Council in Washington. He is a Faculty Associate and the Co-Chair of the European Economic and Policy Program at the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies at Harvard. He is a frequent speaker and moderator at international conferences.

Prior to his career in investment banking Prof. Roscini worked as a researcher in nuclear archaeometry at the University of Rome, as a design engineer and project manager with Westinghouse Electric Corp. in the US and as a management consultant with the Boston Consulting Group in Paris.

He holds an M.B.A. from Harvard and a summa cum laude Laurea degree in Nuclear Engineering from the University of Rome, Italy.

The financial crisis hit Italy harder than many other Eurozone countries. In part this was due to the fact that the crisis came upon a system that was weakened by years of sub-par economic growth. One of the several endogenous factors that explain the stagnation of the Italian economy is the weak corporate governance in the industrial sector and parts of the financial one. A framework that was designed to maintain stability in the ownership of companies and of certain type of banking institutions ultimately led to an inefficient allocation of capital and to a lack of investment that contributed to the loss of competitiveness of Italian firms in a fast globalizing marketplace.

The financial crisis hit Italy harder than many other Eurozone countries. In part this was due to the fact that the crisis came upon a system that was weakened by years of sub-par economic growth. One of the several endogenous factors that explain the stagnation of the Italian economy is the weak corporate governance in the industrial sector and parts of the financial one. A framework that was designed to maintain stability in the ownership of companies and of certain types of banking institutions ultimately led to an inefficient allocation of capital and to a lack of investment, which contributed to the loss of competitiveness of Italian firms in a fast globalizing marketplace.

Italy’s March 2018 elections led to a populist government which included the right-wing League and the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement. To respect their electoral promises, the two parties came up with a budget plan which provided for a public deficit at 2.4%, a figure higher than what the previous administration had promised the EU Commission. On October 23, 2018, the EU Commission rejected such plan asking Italy to revise downwards the public deficit. The same day, Italian bond yields spoke to 4-year highs, up to 3.7% as investors questioned Italy’s capacity to repay its public long-term debt, the second highest in the EU. Would the Italian government be able to implement its plan?

In September 2013, two years after its $2.1 billion acquisition of Mey Icki Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (Mey Icki), the principal spirits company in Turkey specializing in the local beverage, raki, Diageo, the world’s leading premium drinks company, was concerned about new legislation approved by the Turkish parliament prohibiting marketing and restricting the places and times at which alcoholic beverages could be sold. Diageo’s Mey Icki investment in 2011 was the company’s biggest acquisition in more than a decade. Having been caught off guard by the 2013 legislative changes, the Diageo management found itself needing to justify its $2.1 billion valuation, given that Diageo had acquired Mey Icki in 2011 from TPG for three times TPG's purchase price in 2006. Investors as well as analysts were questioning the over seven times value increase in Mey Icki since its privatization in 2003. Menezes, new to the CEO post, found himself increasingly overwhelmed by these issues. Had Diageo underestimated the uncertainties in the Turkish market? Would Diageo, with its broad range of brands, geographical spread, and significant financial resources be able to adapt to the changing environment and recoup its vast investment in Turkey? The case describes the forces that affect investment circumstances in emerging markets, raising the issue of how to best manage and prepare for risks. The case provides the context for the students to identify the potential elements that companies could face when investing in emerging markets where rules, legislation, and taxation can change and thus affect investment outcomes. The case challenges the students to ponder what companies should think about when investing in volatile markets and what it takes for them to succeed under uncertain and shifting circumstances.

Generali was one of Italy’s largest companies and one of Europe’s largest insurers and had for decades been at the center of the web of cross-shareholding that has characterized the opaque brand of old Italian capitalism. This bred sub-par returns while serving to strengthen a small group of shareholders. Under new CEO Mario Greco and his vision of a “revolution of simplicity, discipline, and focus” the company underwent a successful turnaround. One of Greco’s most urgent tasks was to remove uncertainty surrounding the company’s majority stake in a joint venture in Central and Eastern Europe, which it had used as a vehicle for expansion in the region.

In late 2015, Dr. Shehan Dissanayake, a managing director and board member of Bahamian investment firm The Tavistock Group (Tavistock), the largest shareholder in the Australian Agricultural Company (AACo), one of the country's largest agribusinesses, faces a potentially challenging future operating environment in Australia. The country's national government has recently instituted changes to its foreign direct investment (FDI) policies that could affect Tavistock's goals for its long-term investment in AACo. The changes happened in response to popular and political concern over the sharp increase in foreign purchases of Australian land and real estate. As a foreign-owned company, AACo was likely to face more rigorous screenings and oversight as it grew. How could Dissanayake best manage Tavistock's investment in this new political and regulatory climate?

Petrom was privatized by the Romanian state in 2004 and acquired by Austrian oil company OMV, with the state retaining a 20.6% stake in the company. The situation was particularly challenging for the foreign investor since the sector in which the company operated was strategic, was regulated by the Romanian state and the company was a key employer and tax payer in a country that was undergoing major structural change. Under OMV and CEO Mariana Gheorghe's leadership, OMV Petrom saw its net profit and sales almost double since 2005, while headcount was reduced by 50%. Gheorghe had negotiated challenges stemming from Petrom's legacy as a state-owned company, such as lack of investment, aged assets, operational inefficiency, and bureaucracy while successfully managing the triangular partnership between the acquirer OMV, acquiree OMV Petrom and the Romanian government.

In 2016, the United States and the European Union struggled to reach an agreement over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Started in June 2013, TTIP negotiations had gone on much longer than anyone had expected. With elections coming on both sides of the Atlantic and a rising opposition in public opinion, what were the odds that such a comprehensive trade agreement would see the light? How would TTIP change the rules of world trade? Who would benefit and who would lose if an agreement were finally reached?

The note, while not intended to be historically comprehensive, explores the regulation of international trade from the period after World War II to developments in 2010, focusing on shifts in trade theory and policy as well as economic benefits and disadvantages associated with trade liberalization. The note also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of multilateral vs. bilateral or plurilateral agreements, as the latter become more common in arrangements between trading partners.

A fast-growing Macau-based airline backed by private US investors faces a dramatic expropriation in the wake of the first change of head of government since the former Portuguese colony became a Special Administrative Region of China. The case allows students to explore what Foreign Direct Investors can do to foresee a possible expropriation event and what options they might consider to protect themselves ex-ante or fight the outcome ex-post.

In 2006 the French bank Crédit Agricole bought the Greek Emporiki bank, for €2.8 billion, at the peak of a bull market for bank takeovers. Six years, a major financial crisis, and €5.2 billion of losses later, in a context of great uncertainty in the European banking sector, what decision should Crédit Agricole take regarding Emporiki? Through the example of this European cross-border acquisition the case looks at the Greek banking system before and during the unprecedented Greek sovereign debt crisis; the efforts of Greece and the main actors of the European financial system to prevent the embattled country from having to exit the Euro zone; and the potential scenarios for Greek banks in mid-2012.

The sovereign debt crisis that took Greece by storm in 2010 began to spread to other European markets. Within a few months Ireland and Portugal had also lost access to the sovereign debt markets and had to rely on supranational loans for their financing. The risk of further contagion was clear and present. Political leaders continued to seek measures to stem the crisis and to avoid the larger economies of Spain and Italy becoming involved. The European financial system became strained. Banks were found to be undercapitalized and began to ration credit to the economy. The European Central Bank intervened to provide liquidity to the system in order to avoid a credit crunch. Could the eurozone survive the storm?

After its 2009-2010 fiscal crisis shook the euro, could the Greek government stabilize debt, avoid default, and stay on the euro? This case looks at the Greek social and political road to fiscal crisis; the economics of that crisis and efforts to recover from it; the danger the crisis posed to the euro; cooperation and conflict among European states, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund to try to help Greece emerge from crisis; and the role financial markets played in these events.

This note discusses the economics of government-debt accumulation. Fiscal deficits are only part of the picture; other factors include the level of debt as a percent of nominal GDP; the interest rate; the inflation rate; the growth rate; and changes in the exchange rate if some debt is owed in a foreign currency. The note discusses how these factors interact to affect government debt levels.

In 2008, Andres Velasco, Chile's Finance Minister, was under mounting criticisms over his fiscal policy. As the world's largest copper producer, Chile was benefiting from the rise in copper prices, which had more than tripled since 2003. Copper revenues translated into greater income for the government as Chile's biggest copper producer, Codelco, was a state-owned enterprise. Velasco had chosen to save the bulk of the copper revenues into two stabilization funds; by the end of August 2008, the collective amount represented more than 20% of Chile's GDP. Several critics wanted the funds to be used to improve the poor public education system, income gap, and other impending social issues. After all, Chile had one of the most unequal distributions of wealth in the world. Productivity was stagnant and economic growth had slowed down significantly since the 1990s. What should Velasco do amid growing public discontent? Was it really in Chile's best interest to keep saving the copper wealth?

In 2009, Chile's Finance Minister Andres Velasco's fortunes had been reversed. His fiscal policy that had come under attack just a year ago had been used to finance a $4 billion fiscal stimulus package amid the global economic downturn. Velasco was now Chile's most popular minister. However, the future of Chile's fiscal policy was questionable with the election of a new president, Sebastian Pinera, the first conservative leader to lead Chile in two decades.

This note briefly reviews the financial crisis in central Europe in late 2008, and summarizes how four central European countries—Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia—have coped with the economic downturn.

This case describes the efforts of Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, to improve liquidity in money markets during the subprime crisis. The case explains the four main new tools for monetary policy (or quantitative easing) the Federal Reserve has used between 2007 and 2009: the Term Auction Facility (TAF), the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), and the Asset Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF).

Roscini, Dante. "Corporate Governance and the Financial Crisis in Italy." Paper presented at the Conference on the State of Italy, Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI, October 30, 2013.
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