6 Conclusions

The elements presented in this paper suggest the technical and ecological
feasibility of an environmentally sustainable scenario for the region. While its
economic feasibility has not been investigated in depth, our preliminary
estimates of the costs specifically associated with the necessary changes in
land use range between US$ 2,300 and 3,500 million per annum for the whole
region (Winograd, 1989a) - not an exorbitant figure.

As a general conclusion, it can be stated that the ecological future of Latin
America, and the possibilities of benefiting from the ecological opportunities
while minimising the constraints, are much more directly tied to the great
social options adopted in the region than to the search for new knowledge and
new ecosystem management techniques. Unfortunately, the more recent trends in
the region are going in the direction of the reference scenario, with a
disordered abandonment of the regulating role of states (rather than true
modernization and increasing pressures to produce for export, neglecting
internal social needs.

The prospects of a sustainable scenario for Latin America will depend also to
a large degree upon the attitudes adopted by the industrialized countries, and
their willingness to assume their full share of the responsibility for the
reversal of the worldwide ecological degradation and social
impoverishment.