2016-11-03

Stanford GSB Professor David Brady: A Look at the 2016 Elections (video)

"As for Mainstream Media [MSM] bias: Bernie [Sanders] was fortunate to only be blacked out, Soviet style; Trump has zero MSM newspaper endorsements and has been subjected to MSM bias that is laughably ham-handed, reminiscent of old-style Communist "running dogs of Imperialism" propaganda ... With the rise of the Internet and social media, broadcast propaganda is now competing with narrowcast: blogs, Twitter and Facebook enable self-organizing tacit tribes ... with their own networks of communication, narratives and agendas ... In terms of finance and communications, politics as usual--political candidates and narratives mandated by the parties' Ruling Elites and the MSM--is dead. We will all look back in 2026 and wonder why the recognition of this reality took so long."--Charles Hugh Smith

David Brady: A Look at the 2016 Elections:

Whatever your political leanings or anxieties about this year's Presidential election, you will be enlightened after listening to Professor Brady's talk in the video above. He explains what, in his view, is really happening, what makes this election year different than others, not just in the U.S., but in Europe and elsewhere, with humor and insight.

One caveat: much has already changed (or been revealed) since the video above was recorded on October 14, 2016, as part of the Stanford University Graduate School of Business (Stanford GSB) Fall Reunion/Alumni Weekend.
Topics covered include globalization and immigration. The 2016 Presidential Race has had a polarizing effect on many voters, with the 2 major candidates each having high unfavorable ratings. See, e.g., Clinton’s unfavorable rating hits new high in poll | Trump targets Democratic states in final sprint | MarketWatch.com (Oct. 31, 2016).
New polling indicates voters are shifting in view of the late-breaking Wikileaks disclosures, the FBI re-opening its investigation of Hillary Clinton (email scandal) together with revelations about the Clinton Foundation and its tie-ins ("pay-to-play") with Teneo and Hillary Clinton during her tenure as Secretary of State. Trump 47.8% now leads Clinton 42.4% in the USC Dornsife / LATimes.com tracking poll as of November 2, 2016.
The YouGov.com poll referenced in Professor Brady's talk, as of November 1, 2016, shows Trump has a clear path to victory (270 electoral votes) by winning YouGov's "toss-up" states of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and Pennsylvania (in all of which Trump narrowly leads or is close according to YouGov). Even without Pennsylvania, Trump could still win by picking up another 10 electoral votes somewhere else, such as Wisconsin. One BIG problem with the YouGov methodology is that it estimates patterns of 2016 voter turnout using the 2012 Obama-Romney general election--which YouGov admits is "a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns" in 2016--many experts say 2016 voter turnout patterns will differ from 2012. See also The U.S. Stock Market Isn’t Going Clinton’s Way | Bloomberg.com Nov. 1, 2016: "S&P 500 down 3.2% since Aug. 8, a good sign for challenger Trump. Market correctly signals outcome 86 percent of time since 1928."
Just as the Brexit vote was the global macroeconomic event of the first half of 2016, the U.S. Presidential election has the potential to be the global macroeconomic event of the second half of 2016. U.S. voting will conclude the evening of Tuesday, November 8.

Speaker in the video: David BradyProfessor of Political Economy, Stanford GSB Davies Family Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford University
Domain: gsb.stanford.edu