IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

Why I hate August markets!

Talk about a turn around. Yesterday proves why trading in August is really tricky. Market put in a huge rally out of nothing really.

S&P has put in a new year high. Euro reversed losses and returned towards the 1.2380 high.

Markets now look really good this morning but rather than chasing every mood swing I need to be carefull. We are heading back to a bear market in September but while markets are thin due to summer we need to be wary of these rallies.

Maybe we need the politicians to come back from holidays so they can put their foot in it!

I am jobbing the ranges in really small stake size at the moment.

Target for S&P is 1419 and support is 1410

Euro 1.2400 1.2330

Keep the trading small untill we get a firm handle on this market.

One Comment

Peter Pipesmoker

August 17, 2012

Still think we are approaching a “Meltdown Node” for 11/9 Meeting . I don’t think the new Greek Govt. will be able to sell latest deal of €11.5Bn cuts to people ,Politically, without being cut some slack on time by German Troika . The Germans feel they are been made ‘asses’ of by the Greeks when in fact the Plan is just not workable in the first place in a country like Greece which just doesn’t produce that much . Some one will walk to get away or disown what’s been done and the first cracks in the Dam will start to appear . It could be Dem Left who out of fear will be followed by Pasok . Even Tsipsos and Syriza will realise that their days in
Euro are done which will still be a shock to the
system. As that realisation takes hold a sort of Rhett Butler “frankly my dear I dont give a damn
sentiment will set in politically in Greece . The
Germans will believe they are cutting out the
Cancerous Greeks to try and save the other
Perpherals but it won’t work out like that . Once it’s clear Greece is to be let off the Markets will Stampede or the General Ordinary Depositors will to get their money out of the weaker Euro Areas Banks before likewise being pushed out suddenly . No amount of Scarlet O Hara pleading that “Tomorrow is another day” will save Angelas dream of a thousand year EU and Euro it will only be a case as to who can be saved for the Lifeboats . Italy probably not Spain may get away with trying for the last lifeboat . Enda Kenny and the FG Muppet Show Puppets are going to learn after all their effort ( At screwing the Ordinary Irish People to pay up and maintain their image on the Red Carpet ) that
like Leonardo Di Caprio on the Titanic that they
bought a Steerage class ticket and will be reminded that their presence on the Boat Deck is no longer appropriate . What will really be fun is watching them come out with a new set of spoofs for the people how returning to the punt is only a Temporary Measure . Ironically going back to the Punt will probably be the saving of us in the long run and few will really miss the Euro except the Gravy Train Politicians . When the decisive move in the Market is made in September all will follow for fear of being left behind . Now I described this as a nodal moment which means the waves will hit this point for just a brief enough period of time then move off again till later . So what is described above may not happen at this exact node this time . Something feels different about the run into this 11/9 than the other times, it’s a kind of “in the ether” thing as Shakespeare would say .
Almost like after Hols in September everyone is holding their trigger finger just in case a shootout starts , quietly watching . Other things indicate this too like how hard it is to get physical gold , Soros and John Paulson increasing their Gold Stakes just in case . Shell and CRH moving their cash around . Somehow this time feels different some way . Yours Sincerely , Peter Pipesmoker .

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