When a three-times Tour de France winner is on the start line in anything resembling a decent state of fitness, forecasts boil down to a simple statement: one man versus the rest. Thus it was with Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, Miguel Indurain and Lance Armstrong – now disgraced, once perennially dominant – and so it is with Chris Froome, who starts the Tour as the overwhelming favourite, even though he has not yet shown the incisive form of his better years.

There is always speculation that the sheer weight of opposing numbers will one day overcome the counterweight of incumbency but it tends to be wishful thinking. Each of those contenders has his own priorities and the immense importance of the Tour induces a risk-benefit analysis: the favourites weigh up what they have to lose with what they might have to gain and all too frequently it is the former that consumes them.

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Chris Froome: winning a fourth Tour de France would be 'incredible' – video

Froome’s verdict is that “there is a whole handful of guys on the start line with a realistic chance of winning”. None punches with the weight of the Team Sky man but there are always reasons to hope that one July will produce a spectacular along the lines of the recent Giro d’Italia, won by Tom Dumoulin in a thrilling finale. This might be that year: a three-times winner who might not be quite what he was, a finely balanced route that offers something for everyone, and that group of contenders, who may prove a “handful” but not in the sense that the defending champion meant.

Richie Porte

The man to beat in Froome’s eyes. The 32-year-old Australian has a fine season behind him already, with six wins under his belt including the Tour Down Under and the Tour de Romandie. He has made the transition from Froome’s top domestique at Sky to leader at BMC and this year will prove once and for all whether he can go a step further in the Tour. Porte can time trial, he can climb and his team looks solid, albeit lacking the number of pure mountain specialists that Froome can call on. Porte’s achilles heel is that he tends to be the victim of events, as in the 2015 Giro, the 2016 Tour or, most recently, the final day in the Critérium du Dauphiné. That tendency leads to a simple question: can he emulate his old leader Froome and learn to dictate events on the road at the highest level?

Nairo Quintana

A regular on the Tour podium, with second in 2013 and 2015 and third in 2016, plus a Giro d’Italia win in 2014 and the Vuelta last year. The Colombian has enjoyed a strong year, winning Tirreno-Adriatico and taking second to Dumoulin in the Giro. That record means he will be a factor but Quintana is an enigma. In a massively mountainous final week of the Giro he was curiously muted, while at the 2015 Tour he had the form to oust Froome in the final week but did not seize his chance. His Movistar team are strong and skilled and the shortage of time trialling means this Tour will suit him more than any other. The two toughest days in the Alps should suit him most, too, so he needs to strike there to gain time before the Marseille time trial. The only question is how much he left on the road in Italy in May.

Alberto Contador

The pistolero is evergreen or long in the tooth depending on how you see it. Contador has the best all-round record of any Tourman today – the Spaniard is one of the six riders to have claimed all three Grand Tours and has won each one at least twice – but his bid to win the Tour last year stalled badly; he last visited the podium of a major Tour when he won the Giro in 2015. At 34, if he does have one last Tour win in his legs, it will come from his peerless skill at seeking out and exploiting openings. That instinct is born of 10 years winning at this level but will it compensate for the advancing years? His Trek-Segafredo team is not as strong as Sky or Movistar but that is less of an issue. If he rides strongly in the first major test, the three‑col stage to Chambéry, all bets are off.

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Romain Bardet

In the last two Tours stage wins in the Alps have defined the style of the 26-year-old Frenchman from Brioude: opportunistic and aggressive uphill, skilful when the road goes down. Equally key, he seems able to cope with the pressure that comes with being a home contender in the Tour. He finished runner-up to Chris Froome last year when Porte and Quintana faltered, and took the race to the Sky leader on the rain-hit stage to the foot of Mont Blanc. The question now is whether he can go one better and what that would take. The scant time trialling in this year’s race suits Bardet and so does the relative lack of set-piece climbing, with only two conventional mountain-top finishes. His Ag2R team is not at a level with Sky, meaning he needs to arrive in the final week either level-pegging with Froome or in a position to test the favourite. It is a big ask but it is not impossible.

The best of the rest

Thibaut Pinot, Fabio Aru, Esteban Chaves all merit a place on the list of contenders if not headline billing. Pinot is going into the unknown in racing the Tour after a promising but ultimately frustrating fourth in the Giro. The Frenchman will fly or die but at least the pressure is off, as he has struggled to carry the weight of home hopeful in the past. The Italian Aru and Colombian Chaves will find there is a world of difference between tackling the Tour to learn and taking it on to win, but both have strong teams in Astana and Orica-Scott; Chaves will form an intriguing double act with the promising Briton Simon Yates while Aru has the ageing Jakob Fuglsang of Denmark to act as his foil.