Leading Markets Index Shows 59 Metros at or Above Normal Levels

Markets in 59 out of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released yesterday. This represents a net gain of one from the previous month.

The index’s nationwide score held steady at .87. This means that based on current permits, prices and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 87 percent of normal economic and housing activity.

Meanwhile, 32 percent of metro areas saw their score rise this month and 84 percent have shown an improvement over the past year.

“The strong energy sector is at the forefront of the recovery and centered in many small and mid-sized markets in Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota and Wyoming,” says NAHB chief economist David Crowe. “In fact, these four states account for eight of the top 10 markets on the LMI and 45 percent of the markets that are at or above normal.”

Baton Rouge, La., tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.41 – or 41 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Harrisburg, Pa., and Pittsburgh – all of whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now exceeds previous norms.

Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Casper, Wyo.; Bismarck, N.D.; and Grand Forks, N.D., respectively.

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