Weekly Update, Jan 15, 2018

Set up this week – i am focused on interest rates more than equity risks / opportunities right now, so expect most of the posts to point to interest rate driven assets and not stocks

Interesting reads this week

i am not quite sure if this article is actionable, but one make an inference that goes something like … more older people (50+) are working than before and fewer people in those cohorts have sufficient retirement savings – they MUST work. The actionable inference then goes to long term expensive senior healthcare and many in these cohorts will NOT be able to afford the care as defined and priced today. something has to give – better and lower cost services, more government funding, or innovative new services that are affordable https://seekingalpha.com/article/4136795-demographic-trends-50-older-workforce – post from Doug Short

not consipiracy theory, just ackknowledgement of a plausible business stratgey for “China Inc”

One of my favorite Tech writers posted on Intel and the security fiasco – that’s not what i found interesting. He also challenged the claim that autonomous cars will produce massive data sets; it’s not the data set creation he challenged but the wireless infrastructure (even 5G) to transfer all that data … that i had not seen before and introduces some VERY interesting questions https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137337-intel-apocalypse

the change in the 10yr note is worth the look … the reaction to it, i find more difficult

Actions & Decisions last week

Bonds – i did not find any bond bargains i wanted within targeted maturity timelines – prices did not really drop sufficiently and i am not willing (yet) to go out beyond 2027

REIT –

removed my OHI position from IRA with profits – which was a key target. I have no confidence in the business model of OHI until US Govt has a believable long-term plan for Baby Boomer healthcare. I also decided to not increase my position in LTC, regardless of opportunity, for same rationale (the LTC decision to not invest more was difficult, as i have great admiration for the management team)

added to HCN in both non-taxed and taxed accounts – seems contrary to above bullet – but i see a huge difference in the business model and their reliance on public payments. i do, however, acknowledge that HCN is a LONG play and i expect to see my capital decline in short term and i will just keep the DRIP alive

My REIT cash reserve is at 0 in IRA and nearing 0 in taxable – though if things continue to bleed in the street i may add to positions in IOT value chain (CCI or DLR)

GPT is my watch item in this segment, but i am still a bit cautious, as consumer consumption growth is required in this narrative and i am getting more and more skeptical on continued discretionary consumption growth (at least i am consistent with my rate / inflation outlook)

In the process of upping GPT status, i lowered STAG as the age of buildings and the lease durations do not bring the same level of risk mitigation that i see in GPT

Stocks

lost another bucket of Canada weed stocks due to their correction … i have made enough profit, however, that current positions are all recently acquired profits (last 3 months)