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Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by matbrojoe

To be fair, that's because it is a bad idea.

It creates uncertainty and disruption and it's a wholly unnecessary risk that could have been avoided and th best case scenario at the end of it is not some magical land of economic milk and honey but a chance that we manage to remain something like as prosperous as we are now, and the prize for wading through all this shit is some ideological notion of sovereignty which will ultimately mean nothing to the average voter's day to day life.

even if you think this intangible future pay off is worth all the uncertainty in the meantime, just pause for a second and take a look at the incompetents and idiots who we have to steer us through this mess, and then tell me you're confident it will all be sorted to our advantage.
. . .

Who are the winners and the losers?

The new Aristocracy (the global corporations) is certainly a loser - they lose the ability to wean their way into one market then dominate any local competition. This is often followed by siphoning all profits offshore to a tax-free haven.

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by Ironhead

Who are the winners and the losers?

The new Aristocracy (the global corporations) is certainly a loser - they lose the ability to wean their way into one market then dominate any local competition. This is often followed by siphoning all profits offshore to a tax-free haven.

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by essexpete

How will Brexit affect offshore tax havens?

Do you not think that tax havens will carry as before?
The whole hoohah generated by the remainders of disaster around the corner to my mind is just ridiculous. Trade will sort itself out, that is what business does. The devaluation of the pound created by those stupid EU negotiators already will take care of any WTO tarrifs which apparently average around 2.5%!!
I really do wish Teresa would just pull out no deal!!
Jack Caley

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by Jack_Caley

Do you not think that tax havens will carry as before?
The whole hoohah generated by the remainders of disaster around the corner to my mind is just ridiculous. Trade will sort itself out, that is what business does. The devaluation of the pound created by those stupid EU negotiators already will take care of any WTO tarrifs which apparently average around 2.5%!!
I really do wish Teresa would just pull out no deal!!
Jack Caley

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Thank you for that, I have tried to do a little research of my own on WTO tariffs, very difficult.
However, am I correct in assuming that the table you show is Most Favoured Nation Tariffs, a different thing I assume.
I saw one WTOtable which assumed an 8% average , a totally different thing.
The table you have shown does confirm the view of the leave brigade, in that food prices would go down in this country, away from the huge protectionist policies of the EU. Not good for British farming I admit.
Do you really believe that the EU would impose those tariffs on us, in face of possibly the same tariffs on a much bigger export to us.
I admit that the British government is unlikely to impose such huge tariffs, with its huge effect on cost of food in this country , but the net tariff income to the country would be huge!! Not much help to the consumer I agrees .
Your table does illustrate though what a monster we have in the EU. Vastly beaurocratic, very protection and a monster.
Can you just imagine Cranswick Foods just upthe road from here having a 40% tariff on 42% of their raw material for Sainsbury's sausages?
What about whatever tariffs might be imposed on French cheese, wine, Mercedes cars etc?
Trump might be an idiot, but he does know about false news, and grandstanding.
All this hoohah is about the EU keeping its £12 billion a year contribution!
Jack Caley

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by Jack_Caley

Thank you for that, I have tried to do a little research of my own on WTO tariffs, very difficult.
However, am I correct in assuming that the table you show is Most Favoured Nation Tariffs, a different thing I assume.
I saw one WTOtable which assumed an 8% average , a totally different thing.
The table you have shown does confirm the view of the leave brigade, in that food prices would go down in this country, away from the huge protectionist policies of the EU. Not good for British farming I admit.
Do you really believe that the EU would impose those tariffs on us, in face of possibly the same tariffs on a much bigger export to us.
I admit that the British government is unlikely to impose such huge tariffs, with its huge effect on cost of food in this country , but the net tariff income to the country would be huge!! Not much help to the consumer I agrees .
Your table does illustrate though what a monster we have in the EU. Vastly beaurocratic, very protection and a monster.
Can you just imagine Cranswick Foods just upthe road from here having a 40% tariff on 42% of their raw material for Sainsbury's sausages?
What about whatever tariffs might be imposed on French cheese, wine, Mercedes cars etc?
Trump might be an idiot, but he does know about false news, and grandstanding.
All this hoohah is about the EU keeping its £12 billion a year contribution!
Jack Caley

Jack - I think the problem you are having on finding WTO tariffs is I don't believe they put tariffs on anyone's exports or imports - their primary role (as I have seen) is to act as an arbitrator / judge when there is a trade dispute between two countries - like the current softwood dispute between Canada and the US.

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

This morning on BBC Radio 4 there was a profile programme on a man called Stollmeyer, a chief of staff of the EU president. Nicknamed the monster, he is 47 years old, German, non elected of course!Apparently at the age of fifteen his father took him to the World War 1 battlefields and he has been a believer in European peace ever since.I agree with that motive, but I think that the present trading relationships cancel that out. In fact suppression of the various nations like Hungary and Catalonia is. Just the reverse.
Apparently Stollmeyer was at the dinner in Downing Street and it was him who leaked reports of the dinner to the press in order to weaken Teresa May.
These. Are the sort of people democracy is up against, totally opposed to a democratic vote, that the beaurocrats and the politicians know best.
The programme was on Radio 4 about 7 o,clock this morning.Mark Coles.
Jack Caley

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Thinking out loud ( but with a tin hat on ! ) : Are these "Eurocrats" actually shoting themselves in the foot ? i.e. Juncker says we've got to do this, Garnier says we've got to do that, collectively they say that £20 Billion is a joke so go away and think again, "bang bang you're dead or we're not playing".

The British media are reporting all that and while my initial reason for being a Brexiteer was that I wanted the U.K. to be in control of itself again, I'm wondering if Joe Public is beginning to feel as I do insofar as I just want to say sod them all and just walk away ? Or is it time for another referendum for a stronger mandate or would that be too risky ? Discuss.

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Too risky Zaza, the Great British public is too fickle and too thick to understand and evaluate any argument whether pro or con.
Anyone who has ever tried to buy stock from an Irishman will understand the nature of the negotiations. A deal will be made but there will be alot of feet stamping, throwing the arms up in disgust and general bullshitting around. But if you study EU agreements this has forever been the case, then suddenly at one minute to midnight, surprise, surprise a deal is struck and we're all pals again.

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by Jack_Caley

ppression of the various nations like Hungary and Catalonia is. Just the reverse.
Apparently Stollmeyer was at the dinner in Downing Street and it was him who leaked reports of the dinner to the press in order to weaken Teresa May.
These. Are the sort of people democracy is up against, totally opposed to a democratic vote, that the beaurocrats and the politicians know best.

That's how politics work Jack, like it or not, spin and leaks are all part of the game, it works for both sides and both sides did it, if anything the leave campaign was significantly more dishonest, £350 million a week for the NHS anyone?

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Interesting graph here - blue is what we pay, pink is what we get back out of it, black line is our net contribution. source as per the bottom of the graph. Says it all really. I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Common Market was a damn good idea. But when we joined we had no idea about the blood sucking monolith that would evolve. We stood on our own two feet for 2 centuries and we can do it again.

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by zaza

Interesting graph here - blue is what we pay, pink is what we get back out of it, black line is our net contribution. source as per the bottom of the graph. Says it all really. I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Common Market was a damn good idea. But when we joined we had no idea about the blood sucking monolith that would evolve. We stood on our own two feet for 2 centuries and we can do it again.

But it doesn't say it all, because our contributions to the EU are not a zero sum game, there are other indirect economic benefits to membership that aren't quantified in a simple what we pay versus what we draw back comparison.

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by matbrojoe

But it doesn't say it all, because our contributions to the EU are not a zero sum game, there are other indirect economic benefits to membership that aren't quantified in a simple what we pay versus what we draw back comparison.

Nor does it allow for inflation.
As I understand it our contribution is a percentage of the VAT take, stand to be corrected there. Since our Vat rate has doubled over time, this has resulted in an increased payment to Europe.
Interesting comment I heard.....Farm Assurance inspector doing a visit....Farmer commented that they were getting just a little too intrusive, his reply was that he expected if Brexit came about FA would become a legal requirement not a voluntary action.
Difficult to justify if our shores are opened up to any country in the world that our globe trotting trade minister can find to do a deal with.
Thinking it over....It may well become a legal requirement, the part he failed to realise was that it will not be a legal requirement to continue farming!

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

The big problem ith all this debate is that from the start we allowed the EU to make all the running.
Had we gone in hard from the start I think the picture would be different.
All along, even when Cameron went EU made the running. All they had to do was grant Cameron some ground on immigration control and benefits. No, they brought all this on themselves. In fact if they had offered some payments to us, so we could house those 3 million immigrants, pay them benefits and give themNHS treatment, I think they would never have had a referendum.
As it is, they have demonstrated it is just about money, not European peace or anything like that.
We should have gone in hard and let. Them beg for our market.
Jack Caley

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by MC130

We lived off the backs of other countries, and called it an empire

What ? for two centuries ? Have you forgotten all of our history ? Our inventions, our innovations, our tenacity in times of adversity ? Or do you just choose to pick out something that is, in parts, questionable just because it suits your agenda ?

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

There was a mention this morning(or last night), surprise, surprise, on BBC about the Stollmeyer git, not spelt correctly, but better spelt as the monster!! Apparently it was him again who said that Teresa was forlorn and dejected. His boss denied it.
It just goes to show though what lengths those EU leeches will go to to keep all that loot.

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

The Tories in a "cold" (for the moment) civil war, Nationalism and sectarianism on the rise in NI and Scotland and the next government looking like 60's Marxist throwback. Will a Corbyn led UK with NI in turmoil, Scottish independence back in vogue, Tories split and the City a faction of the size it is, be a good outcome?

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by gone

The Tories in a "cold" (for the moment) civil war, Nationalism and sectarianism on the rise in NI and Scotland and the next government looking like 60's Marxist throwback. Will a Corbyn led UK with NI in turmoil, Scottish independence back in vogue, Tories split and the City a faction of the size it is, be a good outcome?

Actually I think it is a good thing that the Torres are n a Cold War.
It means that the views of the leavers must be being heard.
Jack Caley

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by Jack_Caley

Actually I think it is a good thing that the Torres are n a Cold War.
It means that the views of the leavers must be being heard.
Jack Caley

From the outside, I can't see how a divided Tory party with a minority in parliament can get this trough, or win the next election.
The UK being run by a 1960's style Marxist Labour party seems to be getting closer and closer.
He seems to be gaining more and more support while the Tories are totally focused on who will replace Mrs May.
I can't remember the last proper attack, by a Tory, on Corbyn, but the "coldwar" in the Tories rages on.
This has to be a fear for the rural and farming communities

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

The result of the Catalonian vote is interesting to me.
There was a referendum by Catalonian voters, maybe only a percentage, but nevertheless a majority vote for out.
The reaction of other countries, the EU and most importantly our government is to oppose the result and support the Spanish government. Our parliament has a very substantial quantity of MP,s who feel that the referendum result is wrong and that a democratic vote should be ignored, Parliament knows best!!!
It really does illustrate the problem of power. Do politicians have the mentality of power, or are they there to serve the people, their voters?
I suppose in Spain it may yet again come down to money, apparently Catalonia is 30% of Spains GDP. Possibly like EU therein lies the answer.
Jack Caley

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by Jack_Caley

The result of the Catalonian vote is interesting to me.
There was a referendum by Catalonian voters, maybe only a percentage, but nevertheless a majority vote for out.
The reaction of other countries, the EU and most importantly our government is to oppose the result and support the Spanish government. Our parliament has a very substantial quantity of MP,s who feel that the referendum result is wrong and that a democratic vote should be ignored, Parliament knows best!!!
It really does illustrate the problem of power. Do politicians have the mentality of power, or are they there to serve the people, their voters?
I suppose in Spain it may yet again come down to money, apparently Catalonia is 30% of Spains GDP. Possibly like EU therein lies the answer.
Jack Caley

As the Lady says flag waving and entering into something without any plan by a bunch of Nationalist Ideologues hoping for the best is not very pragmatic.

Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.

Re: Brexit, yes or no?

Originally Posted by zaza

What ? for two centuries ? Have you forgotten all of our history ? Our inventions, our innovations, our tenacity in times of adversity ? Or do you just choose to pick out something that is, in parts, questionable just because it suits your agenda ?

And what 'agenda' would that be? Accusations of having an 'agenda' is the go-to response of someone who can't handle having their views challenged.
You were talking about money and the economy and citing past economic success, going back 200 years, as evidence of future economic success. I was pointing out that your point was pointless. That was a different time and vastly different circumstances. Circumstances that will never be repeated and can have no bearing on our fortunes going forward. A bumper harvest from 10 years ago won't feed today's cattle.
Whether you like it or not, our biggest trading partner is the EU and the economy is geared towards that. Other trade deals will come in time, I'm not disputing that, but that's about as much use in the here and now as being promised a load of hay next week when your cows are looking at empty feeders this morning.

And, since you mention invention and innovation, do you have any evidence this has been stifled by being in the EU?

Incidentally, I see celebrated inventor, innovator and ardent Brexiteer James Dyson is planning to build his new electric cars in China. Hardly a vote of confidence.