Friday, 3 November 2017

Splits analysis for 2017 Irish St Leger Final

Trap Order

Opening 325

Closing 225

Black Eyed Peppa

Rd 2

Q/F

S/F

17.78 ckd

18.02 ckd

17.72

12.35

12.21

12.20

Clearly the numbers indicate that Peppa has been one of the most
impressive stayers in the Leger. However, those early figures simply must
come down if he is to retain any win claims but watch the videos, he does
actually have early pace and is Trap 1 the keep to making him break?! Sneak a
run with a bump or two among the early pacers…..possible!

Jaytee Yankee

Rd 2

Q/F

S/F

17.56

17.82 mvd-rails

17.50 hampd

12.45

12.39

12.50

The draw gives Yankee a chance to repeat last week’s win because he
was clipped from behind in his latest 17.50 so can lower that. His best 12.39
coming home would make even Sonic work given that Yankee won’t give up the
inner. He must lead and even then you’ll sweat if your on him but he is definitely
a player in the final.

Clonbrien Hero

Rd 2

Q/F

S/F

17.38

17.42

17.60 ckd

12.34

12.57

12.68 ckd

Even a quick glance would have supporters worried because Hero’s
numbers are receding each week. Granted he met traffic in the semi but his
win claim now hinges on a fast break. If he could make the front and produce
say a 17.45, he would have a right chance but the worry is that although
checked in his latest 12.68 finish, it was only a slight check and wasn’t
enough to have him so far back on his best 12.34.

Ballybough Dad

Rd 2

Q/F

S/F

17.75 ckd

17.50

17.58 bmp

12.43

12.52

12.49

Super consistent and if left alone, he would probably do 17.50 to the
third turn every night. His latest 12.49 may have been even better because
although not checked, he was nose to tail with Yankee for much of it so 12.43
would be about right. That all says 29.90 or so with a clear run and the only
way that would win is if he turned in front (same for Yankee, Hero &
Cabaye). He could though and 10/1 is very big for this consistency at a high
level.

Sonic

Rd 2

Q/F

S/F

17.53 ckd

17.63

17.43

12.49

12.36 ckd

12.21

Posts his best figures in the semi. Timed to perfection? They numbers
say yes! When he breaks he can reach the third bend with the best of the
early pacers in the final and we know he will out-stay them. It all screams that
Sonic wins if given a clear run. The only one that can match him coming home,
probably can’t match him early. Three lengths off the lead at halfway….Job done?!

Droopys Cabaye

Rd 2

Q/F

S/F

17.60

17.44

17.46

12.36

12.51

12.39

Just simply couldn’t get far enough ahead of Sonic last week but the
numbers are classy and last week’s 12.39 means that he is a big player with
the most likely clear run. Nothing broke on Sonic’s inner last week but what
if they do now?! If Sonic gets a bump, Cabaye could be scooting to lead and
in 12.39 form coming home, he could possibly repel a late surge. Remember, he
has a saucy 575 run at SPK, he stays plenty well enough. The numbers confirm
it, he has a right chance!