A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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More Info:

– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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More Info:

– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

Don&#8217-t you love the Web? Within 15 minutes after my posting my absolute and definitive refusal to publish any bits about the VP prediction markets, I received a long rebuttal by Google&#8217-s Bo Cowgill &#8212-whose great prediction market paper is still for you to download (PDF file), by the way.

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

Jason Ruspini went overboard on BBN TV, claiming his tax futures markets will become InTrade&#8217-s most popular ones in 2009, but he managed to control well his descent to Earth:

[Y]es they have lost a lot of steam and that statement seems overconfident at this point, – or has always [been] for that matter. There was no real follow-through to the apparent trend of the first week or so. Lack of news flow is the main culprit. […]

Asked the lawyer representing one of the defendants in the Fallon case. For your information, &#8220-Harry Findlay&#8221- is the name of a &#8220-high-profile, high-staking punter who has never been connected with the case.&#8221- Why is it that his name is brought into the courtroom, then?? Bizarre. There is something they know and we don&#8217-t, obviously.

Yesterday, I re-published on Midas Oracle the e-mail sent to the HedgeStreet traders and prospects. (Curiously, this e-mail was not sent to me, even though I am in their listing.) They wrote that their overhauling would lead them to propose soon &#8220-new and exciting products&#8221-. Well, I found that interesting.

However, today, one of my Deep Throats ( ) is telling me that it is all bullshit, actually.

They are packaging HedgeStreet for a closing/fire-sale. Everyone is leaving, and only a skeleton crew is left.

The CFTC has minimum capital requirements, which HedgeStreet is not able to sustain. They were burning $1m a month on 5k-10k of revenue, then tightening and tightening&#8230- There&#8217-s just no money left.

UPDATE: Russell Andersson was laid off about 3 months ago. VP of finance leaving, VP of compliance leaving, etc. It is falling apart.

Time Trust: Your time trust is a small reserve that can be used to buy stock. Every 15 minutes, your account&#8217-s time trust will gain 50 DKP. However, your time trust is capped at 5,000 DKP so you either use it or lose it. If you have DKP in your time trust, your stock purchases will draw down from the time trust before your cash reserve.

Submitting Content: Submitting content is a great way to get more DKP. You get a flat fee for submitting content, and then more DKP if people bid up your content. Learn how to submit content by checking out the Submit Articles, Submit Images, Submit Videos Tutorials. Learn more by reading the Rules.

Bidding on Content: Bidding on content and comments is another way you can earn DKP. Each person who bids the same way you do on an article, image, video, comment, or unlisted game will earn you DKP. Learn more about bidding on content by reading the Bids on Content tutorial. Find out the current rates by reading the Rules.

The &#8220-Time Trust&#8221- idea is a great idea. My web-hosting service provider does the same. For each additional week I stay with us, they give me one Giga of additional storage capacity and 16 Giga of additional bandwith capacity &#8212-which my little group blog will never be able to consume anyway ( ).

And once I spend the time trust money (before I reach the cap), will they give me more, again, later on, as time passes?