This project had two primary goals: 1) To develop a process for integrating data from multiple sources to improve predictions of climate impacts for wildlife species; and 2) To provide data on climate and related hydrological change, fire behavior under future climates, and species’ distributions for use by researchers and resource managers. We present within this report the process used to integrate species niche models, fire simulations, and vulnerability assessment methods and provide species’ reports that summarize the results of this work. Species niche model analysis provides information on species’ distributions under three climate scenarios and time periods. Niche model analysis allows us to estimate the...

Understanding the physiological impacts of climate change on arid lands species is a critical step towards ensuring the resilience and persistence of such species under changing temperature and moisture regimes. Varying degrees of vulnerability among different species will largely determine their future distributions in the face of climate change. Studies have indicated that Northern Mexico and the Southwestern United States are likely to become climate change hotspots, experiencing significantly drier and warmer average conditions by the end of the 21st century. However, relatively few studies have examined specifically the physiological effects of climate change on species inhabiting this region. This manuscript...

Final Report - Executive Summary: This final project report is prepared to summarize the research project titled “Assessing evapotranspiration rate changes for proposed restoration of the forested uplands of the Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC)” for the Desert LCC of the Bureau of Reclamation as a requirement for closing out the project. This report includes the scope of work, summary of research project, results, and conclusions. Among all of the components of the terrestrial water cycle, evapotranspiration (ET) consumes the largest amount of water. Accurate estimation of ET is very important to understand the influence of ET to the hydrologic response of recharge and runoff processes in the water...

Southern Nevada Water Authority will add new modeling and analytical capabilities to tools developed as part of a previous WaterSMART Climate Analysis Tools Grant that assessed impacts of climate change on water quality and sediment transport in Lake Mead. Project results are intended to increase an understanding of how water quality characteristics and nutrient levels in Lake Mead may be affected by climate change.

Introduction: Tamarisk (Tamarix spp., also saltcedar) is a non-native tree introduced to the United States during the 19th century as an ornamental species and solution to erosion in the American West (Robinson 1965). Tamarisk can form dense monotypic stands, which have been linked to a decline in richness and diversity of native plants (Engel-Wilson & Ohmart 1978; Lovich et al. 1994) and wildlife (Anderson et al. 1977; Durst et al. 2008) in riparian areas. As a result, natural resource managers have invested millions of dollars to control tamarisk (Shafroth & Briggs 2008). Few studies have conducted community-level analyses to document the impact of one of these methods, the introduction of a native enemy or predator,...

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for assessments of water balance and hydrologic responses to forest restoration treatments in uplands adjacent to the Desert LCC. As part of the Four Forests Restoration Initiative, a new paired watershed study is being planned to assess the hydrologic effects of mechanically thinning and restoring a more frequent fire regime to the ponderosa pine forests of Arizona. Water and energy balances will be measured and modeled in these paired watersheds to help inform and better plan for the hydrologic responses of future forest restoration actions. Researchers at Northern Arizona University have collected six years of eddy covariance measurements of ET in the...

In the desert southwest biodiversity is facing a changing landscape due to human population growth, expansion of energy development, and from the persistent effects of climate change among other threats. The 2012 Desert LCC science needs document recognized the importance of modeling and predicting habitat area, fragmentation and corridor network connectivity for a broad range of wildlife taxa. Tools and methods from conservation planning are available to address some of these issues, but tools to evaluate the expected benefits of corridors in mitigating climate change effects are only in their infancy. This USGS project will use quantitative spatial analysis and principles from landscape ecology to determine where...

Sky Island Alliance will develop science and conservation-based guidance to assist natural resource managers in responding to expected climate change and other stressors on springs ecosystems in sky island regions of the Desert LCC. The project will result in publication of an Arizona Springs Restoration Handbook, which will aid managers in directing limited resources to preserve these key water resources and species that depend on them.

Southern Nevada Water Authority will add new modeling and analytical capabilities to tools developed as part of a previous WaterSMART Climate Analysis Tools Grant that assessed impacts of climate change on water quality and sediment transport in Lake Mead. Project results are intended to increase an understanding of how water quality characteristics and nutrient levels in Lake Mead may be affected by climate change.

Executive Summary: Fisheries data compilation efforts for this project fell within two large watersheds in Arizona; the Verde River watershed (Desert LCC) and the Little Colorado River watershed (Southern Rockies LCC). We divided the project into two phases; 1) data compilation for the Arizona Game and Fish Fisheries Information Systems (FINS) and 2) a demonstration of FINS through model development and species distribution data. During phase 1, we compiled, cleaned, assigned National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) reach codes to historical data for 113,230 fish records in the Verde River watershed and 43,828 fish records from the Little Colorado River watershed. These records were standardized to meet the Arizona Game...

Topock Marsh is a large wetland adjacent to the Colorado River and main feature of Havasu National Wildlife Refuge (Havasu NWR) in southern Arizona. In 2010, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and Bureau of Reclamation began a project to improve water management capabilities at Topock Marsh and protect habitats and species. Initial construction required a drawdown, which caused below-average inflows and water depths in 2010-2011. Co-applicants Daniels and Haegele of FORT monitored Topock Marsh during the drawdown and immediately after, thus obtained information on immediate effects. However, stress from the drawdown may have a delayed effect on aquatic resources; additionally, significant changes to the infrastructure...

Topock Marsh is a large wetland adjacent to the Colorado River and main feature of Havasu National Wildlife Refuge (Havasu NWR) in southern Arizona. In 2010, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and Bureau of Reclamation began a project to improve water management capabilities at Topock Marsh and protect habitats and species. Initial construction required a drawdown, which caused below-average inflows and water depths in 2010-2011. Co-applicants Daniels and Haegele of FORT monitored Topock Marsh during the drawdown and immediately after, thus obtained information on immediate effects. However, stress from the drawdown may have a delayed effect on aquatic resources; additionally, significant changes to the infrastructure...

The U.S. Forest Service plans to conduct forest restoration treatments through the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) on hundreds of thousands of acres of ponderosa pine forest along the Mogollon Rim of Arizona over the next 20 years with the goals of reducing wildfire hazard and improving forest health. The 4FRI’s key objective is to thin and burn the forests to create within-stand openings that “promote snowpack accumulation and retention which benefit groundwater recharge and watershed processes at the fine (1 to 10 acres) scale.” However, little is known about how these openings created by restoration treatments affect snow water equivalence (SWE) and soil moisture, which are key parts of the water balance...

Abstract: Topock Marsh is a large wetland adjacent to the Colorado River and the main feature of Havasu National Wildlife Refuge (Havasu NWR) in southern Arizona. In 2010, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and Bureau of Reclamation began a project to improve water management capabilities at Topock Marsh and protect habitats and species. Initial construction required a drawdown, which caused below-average inflows and water depths in 2010–11. U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) scientists collected an assemblage of biotic, abiotic, and hydrologic data from Topock Marsh during the drawdown and immediately after, thus obtaining valuable information needed by FWS. Building upon that work,...

Assessing the vulnerability of species or ecosystems to climate change and formulating appropriate management responses requires predictions of the exposure and sensitivity of the species or ecosystems to projected changes. This collaborative effort by the Sonoran Joint Venture, Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperative, and Point Reyes Bird Observatory will develop a foundation for monitoring environmental change in the desert southwest by identifying where and what to monitor in order to evaluate climate-change impacts. Climate change will not have the same effects in all locations of the southwest. Some areas will change quickly (hotspots) and others will change slowly (refugia). Identifying both types of areas...

Overgrazing and fire suppression have led to a loss of deep soils and vegetative cover in the 420,000 acre Alamosa Creek watershed in southwestern New Mexico. Rain and snow melt are no longer held by the soils and released slowly, but run off in floods, resulting in catastrophic flows and severe erosion that contribute sediment to Elephant Butte Dam. The diverse community of farmers that irrigate 800 acres of valley land on 49 farms in Cañada Alamosa are looking to revive traditional and develop innovate new practices to maintain their way of life. Partnerships are required to design new land management practices between scientists and local land managers. This project is a component of a larger Alamosa Land Institute...

The Grassland, Shrubland, Desert Program of the U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station intends to evaluate the interactive effects of fire and climate change on the presence and long-term persistence of native and non-native species within Rio Grande riparian and wetland habitats of the Desert and Southern Rockies LCCs. Decision support tools and maps will be produced that will help resource managers identify conditions and locations where biodiversity will be most affected by future changes and identify needs with respect to species conservation and invasive species management.

Amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) have been linked to specific microhabitat characteristics, microclimates, and water resources in riparian forests. Our objective was to relate variation in herpetofauna abundance to changes in habitat caused by a beetle used for Tamarix biocontrol (Diorhabda carinulata; Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) and riparian restoration. During 2013 and 2014, we measured vegetation and monitored herpetofauna via trapping and visual encounter surveys (VES) at locations affected by biocontrol along the Virgin River in the Mojave Desert of the southwestern United States. Twenty-one sites were divided into four riparian stand types based on density and percent cover of dominant trees (Tamarix,...

Final Report Abstract: More than half of the world’s population relies upon monsoonal rainfall that supports agriculture. While in many locations climate change is resulting in less moisture from fewer winter storms and more intense summer precipitation events, rural working landscapes (agricultural managed systems) are struggling to recover from increasingly extreme droughts and floods. The Cañada Alamosa watershed, a 420,000 acre in southwestern New Mexico (see figure 1), faces contemporary resource challenges common to the Southwest; overgrazing and fire suppression have led to a loss of deep soils and vegetative cover. This area’s traditional cultural practices of managed stormwater flooding of the historic...

Northern Arizona University will build upon the U.S. Forest Service Four Forest Restoration Initiative in Northern Arizona to investigate how restoration efforts can affect the water volume available in the snowpack and soil moisture in the Desert LCC. This project will result in a tool that can be used to predict the water volume in snowpack and soil moisture response to various forest treatments.