Trying to keep up with the zeitgeist

Jeff Zucker has a bit of a reputation for choosing profitability that comes with a heavy long-term price and The Jay Leno Show may be the latest example. While the show is indeed making more money than NBC’s previous 10PM dramas, the bigger picture isn’t encouraging. NBC’s average rating at 10 PM is down by 43%, The Tonight Show is down 23% and, most troubling, local news (on NBC stations, though it’s probably safe to presume there’s something similar happening on affiliates) have also seen audiences shrink by 16%. NBC may be more profitable in the time slot, but its dragging down the shows that follow it.

The shrinking audience for the local news is the most troubling data point because, as Mark Evanier explains, that’s valuable to affiliate and if affiliates decide to bump Leno (most likely, as Evanier suggests, to air an early news show with Leno airing after prime time) there could be a domino effect that hurts the entire late night line up.

Meanwhile, the few hits NBC had at 10 PM — namely, Law & Order: SVU and Dateline — are facing troubles without the 10 PM slot. In its new time slot L&O is struggling against the stronger Criminal Minds. ABC’s newsmagazine 20/20, meanwhile, is once again winning its time slot now that its facing Leno and not Dateline.

Then again, the alternative would have been finding strong series that could be hits at 10PM and history shows it was unlikely that would happen at NBC.