There is more than a hint of irony to the fact that the 2016 U.S. presidential election features two (almost) 70-something candidates trying to Tweet their way to the job of saving a Social Security system that was installed when life expectancy in America was below their current ages[1]. All while they could just as well sit at home, collect Social Security, and watch things play out on TV.At nearly 69 years old[2], Hillary Clinton is the oldest Democratic presidential nominee in history. And at 70 years old[3], Donald Trump is the fourth oldest Republican. Together, they make 2016 the oldest presidential contest in American history. But if Americans are living longer and 70 is not what it used to be, then what the hell is it? And how “old” are they really?I looked at the election-day age[4]of every U.S. presidential candidate who has cleared - or projects to clear - at least ten percent of the popular vote[5]. Including Clinton and Trump in 2016, that’s 124 candidates in 58 elections dating back to 1788-89. (Clinton is seventh oldest overall; Trump is fourth.) I then measured each candidate’s election-day age as a percentage of his or her life expectancy at that particular age and in that particular year. Life expectancy in the U.S. has increased over time, so ages today don’t mean the same thing they did generations or centuries ago.Here’s an example. Abraham Lincoln was 51.7 years old on Election Day in 1860. At that time, the average 52-year-old lived another 18.3 years, to the age of 70.3. So in November 1860, Lincoln was 73.6% of the way through his expected life. Al Gore was 52.6 years old on Election Day in 2000 – about a year older than Lincoln. But by 2000, the average 53-year-old lived for 25.7 years, to 78.7. So even though Gore was a year older than Lincoln, he was only two-thirds of the way through his life, while Lincoln was three-quarters of the way through his. In this way, Gore was “younger” than Lincoln. I ran that math for all 124 candidates. What did I find?

​Footnotes​[1] Based on life expectancy at birth and, more importantly, at the attainment of adulthood. Though popularly cited, life expectancy at birth is highly misleading in that it's dragged down by infant mortality. Per the Social Security Administration (SSA), "life expectancy at birth in 1930 was [...] only 58 for men and 62 for women, and the retirement age was 65. But life expectancy at birth in the early decades of the 20th century was low due mainly to high infant mortality." Nevertheless, the weighted average life expectancy for a 20-year-old American in 1935 (across races and genders) was 47.5 years (i.e., they would live to 67.5), You could make the case that by the mid-1930s the average white female would have lived to 70.0 years old, which would exceed Hillary Clinton's current age by one year. But you get the point.​[2] Hillary Clinton was born on October 26, 1947. She will be 69 years old on Election Day. ​[3] Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946. He will be 70.4 years old on Election Day.[4] To be precise, we used November 1st of every presidential election year except 1788-89. That year, the very first presidential election commenced on December 15, 1788 and concluded on January 10, 1789. Other early elections were held over the course of several weeks but started right around November 1. ​[5] Gary Johnson currently projects to win 6.6% of the popular vote, which may very well change. For now he is excluded. The National Archives and Records Administration lists no official record of the popular vote until 1824. For purposes of this analysis, we applied common historical convention and incorporated two major candidates from 1796 through 1820 and one major candidate in 1788-89 and 1792 (George Washington) into our analysis.

For life expectancies, 1900 and earlier: Hacker, J. David. "Decennial Life Tables for the White Population of the United States, 1790-1900." Accessed via PubMed Central, a full-text archive of biomedical and life sciences journal literature at the U.S. National Institutes of Health's National Library of Medicine. Published in final edited form as "Hist Methods" 2010 Apr, 43(2): 45-79. Dr. Hacker is a demographic historian and professor at the University of Minnesota.

In the source data, ages are presented in increments of five or ten years. Years are presented decennially or for specific years. For candidate ages and election years that fell between (or after) those presented, I interpolated (or extrapolated) life expectancies based on the data available.

﻿﻿Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.