2011-12 Edmonton Oilers in Review: Shawn Horcoff

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Shawn Horcoff hockey card

While the Edmonton Oilers’ fanbase has very mixed opinions of Shawn Horcoff these days, he has never lacked for the confidence of his coach. Craig MacTavish, Pat Quinn, and Tom Renney all leaned heavily on the veteran pivot to soak up the tough minutes against the opposition’s best.

How successful Horcoff has been in that role is another question. Halfway into his controversial six-year contract, by the boxcars Horcoff has delivered just 35 goals, 97 points and an ugly -53 rating over those three seasons, while the Oilers’ place in the standings speaks for itself.

With the arrival of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to join Sam Gagner as scoring centres this past season, Horcoff’s role saw a further shift towards defence-first responsibilities. In some ways he morphed to the “third-line centre” that some have seen all along as being his ideal role.

That such terminology is obsolete in the modern game can be seen by the fact that Horcoff once again led Oiler forwards in ice time per game (ATOI), a category where he has topped the club for the last six (6) years running. That said, his splits were a little different in 2011-12, as he ranked seventh in ice time at even strength, but first with a bullet on special teams with only Ryan Smyth even in the neighbourhood. The rest of the forwards saw limited action on at least one of the two special teams.

By one important measure the captain’s work was pretty decent in odd-man situations. With Horcoff on the ice the Oilers powerplay struck for 8.54 goals for every 60 minutes of opportunity, while when shorthanded the opposition scored just 6.15 PPG/60. Too bad some of that didn’t show up on the ol’ plus/minus, which really took a beating at even strength.

While Horcoff’s role on the powerplay unit was far from glamourous — take the faceoff, then muck around in the low slot taking punishment and creating traffic while the higher-skilled guys do their magic a little further outside — there is no denying he was effective. While by design his is not a scoring role, David Staples’ count of contributions to powerplay goals showed Horcoff (28) right up there with the snipers (Hall 28, RNH 27, Eberle 24). By actual point count, Horcoff wound up with some truly Fibonacci-an splits of his scoring numbers: 5-8-13 on the powerplay, 8-13-21 at even strength, and 13-21-34 overall.

At even strength Horcoff’s role was also clear: he had the toughest QualComp of any Oiler forward (1st, 1st, & 3rd in the three categories detailed at behindthenet.ca), and had the second toughest ZoneStarts, marginally behind plowhorse and fellow faceoff man Eric Belanger. A necessary role, sheltering the team’s younger, more offensive oriented players. Unfortunately, the results weren’t pretty, as the Oilers were outscored by more than a goal for every 60 minutes the captain was on the ice at even strength. Flow of play wasn’t so much the problem — Horcoff’s Relative Corsi was near the team average at -1.0 — but the percentages were not his friend, as the team struggled to convert at the offensive end while his netminders were no great shakes behind him. A PDO of .978 will invariably lead to an ugly minus, and Horcoff was no exception.

Looking ahead, it would seem Shawn Horcoff will continue to have a similar if diminishing role on the Oilers for the foreseeable future. The three years remaining on his massive pact speak to that, barring some sort of contract amnesty in the new CBA which would allow limited buyouts without salary cap fallout. With the actual dollar value dropping well below the cap hit in the final two years, it remains possible that such a deal might have value for a cash-poor team struggling to make the cap floor. Such questions are moot, of course, until the new CBA is hammered out (preferably before the old one expires, fellows!)

Under the current structure, Horcoff is clearly overpriced but certainly not without value. While his smarts and work ethic remain top drawer, his legs and hands have been gradually deserting him as he reaches his mid-30s. As the likes of Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner continue their ascent to big-minutes roles, the need for solid veterans in supporting roles will remain. A man with mega-experience on special teams, faceoffs, and playing with and against top players will increase in value as the team becomes more competitive.

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