Putin plans to end Alawite hegemony in Damascus and evict pro-Iranian Shiite militias including Hizballah

Vladimir Putin has drawn up this plan for the Sochi conference. He will put it before Binyamin Netanyahu when they meet on Monday, Jan. 29.

DEBKAfile reports that the Russian president has prepared a plan for Syria’s post-war future for presentation to the Syrian peace conference which begins on the same day at the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Moscow has taken into account 1,600 Syrian government and opposition participants. Some rebel groups have announced a boycott. DEBKAfile reports that the absentees are pro-Assad and pro-Iranian groups who are boycotting the event to reflect their masters’ objections to the Russian president’s plans. Unless he decides to back down at the last moment, those plans are substantially as follows:

Early democratic elections to the presidency and parliament, guaranteed by Moscow to be genuinely democratic with all parts of the population allowed for the first time to vote and put up candidates for office.

The new constitution will reflect the demographic changes overtaking the country in the seven-year war. The largest group, the Sunnis, will win majority representation in parliament, while Bashar Assad’s small Allawite sect will no longer be privileged as a ruling minority. Assad will thus automatically lose his dominant rule on Syria’s political scene.

A New National Syrian Army is to be established, to replace the government force, which has been heavily depleted in the long war. Since most young Syrians of military age refused to join Assad’s army in the last few years, most military units exist only on paper. Once again, the country’s demographic structure will be represented at all ranks of the new army. Moscow is committed to funding the new army and furnishing it with modern weapons, as well as restructuring the units, a process already in hand.

In all these proposals, the Russians conferred intensively with Riyadh and Cairo – the former as a key Arab supporter of the Syrian anti-Assad opposition and the latter as a steadfast backer of President Assad. This stratagem gave Moscow the broadest possible inter-Arab approval for his plan and moreover, as DEBKAfile reports, an indirect line to Washington. Saudi and Egyptian leaders, upon receipt of the Russian plan, showed it to the Trump administration, collected its responses and passed them back to Moscow.

Only on one point did the Saudis lean hard on the Russians to alter their first blueprint. They maintained that as it stood, the regions to be allotted to the various armies for control were not clearly laid out. Moscow replied that the New Syrian Army would be taking over. But Riyadh insisted on an explicit provision mandating the expulsion of all armed foreign forces from Syria. Last week, Moscow agreed to this amendment and sent a message to Tehran that Sochi conference resolutions would include a ban on any foreign military presence in Syria. In a word, Putin had agreed to show the door to Iranian forces and all imported Shiite militias operating there under Iranian command, including Hizballah.

This was the nub of the information that Putin proposes to relay to the Israeli prime minister when they meet in Moscow on Monday, the same day as the Sochi conference. Netanyahu will also ask his host to make this measure ironclad so that Tehran and Hizballah will never find a loophole for their return to Syria. If Putin succeeds in getting part of his Syrian peace plan accepted at the Sochi conference, he will have brought off a major feat.

94 thoughts on “Putin plans to end Alawite hegemony in Damascus and evict pro-Iranian Shiite militias including Hizballah”

Understand that the country is currently falling apart in every direction so the Russians have to have _some_ plan to salvage it to avoid things like the Turkish invasion. This is still broad strokes, so to speak. Every faction is responsible for themselves and must buy in or explicitly state their separatist/anti-Syrian goals if a plan like this is adopted.

Your point is well taken. Putin doesn’t care about anything except projecting Russian power. I can only guess that by removing the Iranians/Alliwites/militias/Hizbollah, Syria will become a Russian client state, with Russia maintaining the naval/military bases already in place. Down the road, having the Russian military on our doorstep could be a major strategic threat. In the short term, watching Putin double cross Iran/Assad should be highly entertaining.

I agree that the Ruskies are a minor military threat nothing more. The serious threats are Hizballeaters, and the Ayatoolahs. If it succeeds, then Putin has his warm water bases forever, and this is all he needs. But as in the past he speaks in double tongue so time will tell if he is serious or not.

Russia is in dire need of warm water ports. Their actions in Ukraine demonstrate that so I hope you are right. I’ll take a slightly more powerful Russia for a further isolated Iran any day. At least Russia is a logical actor.

If you think the rebels will allow Russian bases after he double cross Assad and Iran, is nothing but stupidity. Russia had bombed them to kingdom come all these years and to think Putin is so stupid to trust those rebels is silly.

No this report cannot be true otherwise it would be global news not just here in debka.
As it is , it’s business as usual.

Let’s see if the Kurds want to return to Assad or to US .
The latter will mean war

Well this plan would certainly put a wrench in the end-timers plans of Gog Magog. At least for a good time because it will take a looooog time to ever put this plan into a working order. Good luck kicking Hezbollah out let alone Iran. I won’t be holding my breath.

Russia is Magog and it’s leader is Gog. The Ezekiel War Chapters 38 & 39 is quickly approaching.
Prophecy will be fulfilled. Put your trust in Jesus Christ and you’ll be saved and kept from this
horrible 7 year tribulation time coming to earth. Very very soon.

“The Ezekiel War Chapters 38 & 39 is quickly approaching.
Prophecy will be fulfilled. Put your trust in Jesus Christ and you’ll be saved and kept from this
horrible 7 year tribulation time coming to earth. Very very soon.”

Teheran invested too much to keep Assad afloat… I don’t think that they will accept this plan…
Hebollah payed a very high tribute tokeep Assad afloat… I don’t think they will accept this plan…
The Kurds and Turkey will not accept it either… According to Putin plan post war Syria will look like Lebanon… like a mayhem…

This is the most bizarre post I’ve seen so far. Of all the competing fighters in Syria, Israel is avoiding getting entangled in Arabs killing Arabs. It has actually taken many wounded fighters who crossed into Israel to Israeli hospitals for medical help. Israel will try to interdict weapons from being transferred to Hezbollah from Iran.

If you have a gripe with Debka, does it make sense to keep reading it? DEBKA is about Israel and Jews. You evidently have a problem with both. So read some other blogs instead, and you’ll stop making yourself look foolish.

“This is as believable as Debka’s report two years ago that the iranian embassy had been blown up in Beirut. More Pulitzer prize winning journalism from Debka.”

@Jim Carrol,

I’ve found that about 90% of the stories posted on Debka turn out to be fairly accurate. I’ve also found that what I’ve read on Debka today usually appeared nowhere else until about 3 days later———-so, one can read it on Debka today or read the exact same thing somewhere else roughly 3 days later———-your choice!
My opinion: Thank you, Debka!

Russia has wanted warm water ports since Peter the Great’s time. They don’ t need Iran and Hezbollah for that, and being a Christian country over a millennium, the are not naturally aligned with Islamist regimes like Turkey and Iran. If they join with America to oust Iran and Hezbollah from Syria, and establish an independent Kurdish state, what could endless shit talking Islamist scum in Tehran and Ankara do? The answer is they could do nothing in the face of such a powerful anti- Islamist alignment. Destroy all Islamists.

This is leading to a Russian- Iranian conflict. Nobody in his right mind would think that the Iranians will just go away without a fight.

The only way Syria can work as a country is if it is broken up, if Iran, Russia and Turkey just go away and stop arming everyone and if the Kurds get a homeland and become well-armed couterweights to the many bloodthirsty Islamists who always make a mess of the world and then blame and charge everyone else.

…Sounds too good to be true, but if anyone is able to push this through, it is Putin and co. !
However, with “friends” like Putin, Israel does not need any more enemies, and, as always, the Jewish state can only rely on its own Power !

No wonder Erdo is wiping out the Kurdish irregulars. By the time the liars from the territorial imperialists are finished the kurds are gonna wish they joined IS when they had the chance. Everyone must learn the lesson of the betrayal of the Kurds.

“A Dream in the form of Mental Illness.He himself does not believe what he wrote”

@Davud,

Sounds like a perfect description of our former Secretary of State, Herman Munster, when he was saying the nuclear deal with Iran was good for Israel and when he recently came out of the woodwork to offer support to the “Palestinian cause” and suggested they come up with their own “peace plan” !

Putin must be going to use Syria as a test-bed, before introducing a similar scheme[1] in Russia, in which — as of so recently, and of today — Alexei Navalny has been banned from the election process and arrested by security forces 🙂

If the Russians are so keen on a warm water port, there is another way to get one, without all of the problems of Syria.

1. “Early democratic elections to the presidency and parliament, guaranteed by Moscow to be genuinely democratic with all parts of the population allowed for the first time to vote and put up candidates for office.”

I hope that Putin isn’t like Trump, endlessly changing his mind about what he wants or doesn’t want in an effort to freeze-dry the opposition or recommendations from others. How he responds to the Shiites may change over time. He probably also wants to prevent Israel from making good on its own warning that it will prevent an extended, and extensive, Iranian presence in Syria by acting the vigilante. But most important, with Crimea, Syria, and Libya, he may be trying to outflank NATO from the south, seeing as how NATO moved all the way East to the Russian border. That could spell war or capitulation for the West, eventually.

Yea right, watching T Erdogan and the Turks fighting with the Kurds and the US and it could fuck this shit all up. Bye the way, Hassan Rouhani, is on a plane heading for China. LOL. Guess what Putin? Good luck with that. Russia has only one option in all of this and that is; “Get the hell Out” and let Assad,Hizbolla and Iran fail.

Many articles have claimed that war with iran begins the day after assad is overthrown. I wonder if kicking the iranians out of syria counts. Otherwise I don’t see why Israel would allow iran to attain nukes after saying they are going to wipe the zionist entity off of the map. If they are going to exterminate us, better to exterminate them first.
Also, ‘the deal will allow currently barred from voting groups the ability to vote?’ Which explains how the alawites making up 15% of the population keep getting re-elected for the past 55 years and after assads father murdered tens of thousands for uprising, and still he and his sons get re-elected. Makes you wonder how useless is the american and world media? Also notice, never any claim of apartheid in the united nations, russia, america, europe or saudi arabia. They all pretend they care about human rights when its useful to them. In G-d I trust.

The left-wing media, no matter where in the world it is, has been totally useless and biased for a long time now: just look at how they covered the wars between the Israelis and Hezbollah in Lebanon and between the Israelis and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza!
It’s absolutely clear whose side the left-wing media is on!

The Russians find themselves in a position they have not been in for many many years. If you told a Russian military man 10 years ago that once again Russia will play a deciding role in the formulating of ANYTHING in the Middle East, he would have laughed a bit before staring forlornly into his empty vodka glass. It did not need a new Russian revolution to reverse this. No. What it needed was one Barak Hussein Obama to enter the White House and destroy a Middle East that was pretty much under the control of the US and it’s Allies. Syria was an ineffectual Arab Dictatorship. Iran was still hiding in the corner watching as it’s dreams of a Shia caliphate were on hold. Iraq was trying to find itself and so long as the Allies kept a watchful eye on it’s political processes would stay ‘Iran free’

Thanks to weak and feckless leadership, or rather complete lack of, from the US and it’s now rudderless boat of Allies, the Ruskies were back in business. With a full cup no less..

Tell this to a Democrat or to Mr Obama himself and they’ll look at you like your from the moon. Why just the other day didn’t our old friend Barak tell a group of Reform Jews that he gave Israel more of this and more of that? And Israel had no better friend…. Kind of like ‘some of my best friends are Jewish…’

Our former President said the very same thing about his then Secretary of State, Herman Munster, when negotiations failed because Israel wouldn’t give their country away to the so-called “Palestinians” and, of course, let’s not forget about Obama’s “legacy”: the Nuclear Deal with Iran which gave Iran so much money to be used for destabilizing the entire Middle East and with its (in)famous “sunset clause” which will allow Iran to continue developing a nuclear weapon in the future without being hindered by sanctions! And don’t forget about Herman Munster’s very recent offer to support the Palestinians————what else would one expect from a former Viet Cong supporter during the 1960’s and 1970’s ????

I personally would put more faith in this plan than any other peace plan I have ever seen in the middle Putin simply has delivered before and it does not matter which side of the fence you sit on that is a fact also Assad has no other option weather he likes it or not same goes for the Iranians the Russians are largely calling the shots in Syria it is better them than the yanks at least it won’t end being a complete gong show like everywhere they intervene.

” the Russians are largely calling the shots in Syria it is better them than the yanks at least it won’t end being a complete gong show like everywhere they intervene.”

@cj2317,

Actually no, it’s not better because the way it’s going to end is with Assad dropping saran gas barrel bombs on people within Syria (whom he perceives didn’t support him) as an act of revenge as soon as he has the opportunity and when the Russians are distracted with something else.
Just another fine day in the Middle East!

Be very careful Israel. This could bite you. Hasn’t Russia had tanks on your border for a few months along with their buddies in Iran? Snake to angel? Not a chance that Iran is getting cut out. Russia wants southern bases, access and power. We’ll broker a good deal. We’ll train the new Syrian army. Forget that we built Iran’s nuclear facilities. Sounds like the players in Ezekiel 38 and the build up to Isaiah 17.

Meanwhile, ‘other source’ telling me that Netanyahu have agree with Putin to return Golan back to Syria and sign peace with Bashar Assad, and also would return Sheeba farm to Lebanon and Wesbank to Palestine while negotiating peace agreement. Netanyahu and Putin understand that Israel should fulfil its obligation per UN Resolutions and other International Laws. Soon after all invaded lands has returned, Putin would willingly go to Iran and telling them that no reason for Iran to dislike Israel and persuade Iran to open embassy in Tel Aviv. Iran would agree with Putin, as predicted by many ‘intellegent’ source whom familiar with this issues.

“Meanwhile, ‘other source’ telling me that Netanyahu have agree with Putin to return Golan back to Syria and sign peace with Bashar Assad, and also would return Sheeba farm to Lebanon and Wesbank to Palestine while negotiating peace agreement. Netanyahu and Putin understand that Israel should fulfil its obligation per UN Resolutions and other International Laws. Soon after all invaded lands has returned, Putin would willingly go to Iran and telling them that no reason for Iran to dislike Israel and persuade Iran to open embassy in Tel Aviv. Iran would agree with Putin, as predicted by many ‘intellegent’ source whom familiar with this issues.”

Only someone naive enough to call himself “worldcitizen” would come up with something like that!

Dave, the truth is not ‘naive’, sometimes it hurt indeed, It was Israel that have start all wars(except yom kippur war, fyi Egypt wars to take Sinai Back), with bogus pretext, so its clear, Israel wasnt a war victim who won the war, but the invader,with help from mostly Eastern European high skill mercenaries and advanced weopon support from corrupts Western establishment.

Cro MAGA man
Russia a Christian country? Do you know what Russia has done with her Christians? God has an issue with Russia because of all the Christians she has slain. Russia is the “king of the north” spoken of in Daniel 11.

In any election, Assad will win. He enjoys huge popularity in Syria. Don’t hold your breath for Assad getting voted out. There is no-one else.

Secondly Russia will not capitulate in Syria for the benefit of its enemy, the US. As long as the borders of Syria are relatively open and terrorists are able to come and go at will, there is a need for troops on the ground to remove them, and that means Iran and the Hashd and Hezb. Who else is going to provide the 250,000 soldiers in Iraq and Syria that Iran has put together? If it goes from bad to worse, who else can throw in another 250,000 men, and then another, and then another? Israel? Someone has to supply the meat in this war. Who is willing to except Iran.

And as long as there are American bases in Syria and the US continues to stir up the Kurds and Sunnis and whoever else, Russia will not let Iran leave Syria. If Khamenei announced that he was going to pull out of Syria tomorrow, Putin would do everything he could to prevent it.

There will not only be permanent Iranian bases in Syria, there will be a permanent naval base on the Med and a rail and road link to Iran. There will be ballistic and anti-air missiles and a large standing army. There is no other choice. No-one except Iran can or will provide a hundred thousand of its sons to spill their blood in Syria. Israel will not be able to prevent this with air power alone or with political maneuvering in Moscow and Washington.

The objectives mentioned in the above analysis could have been achieved without much bloodshed, in 2011, when the unrest in Syria had just started. At that time, there was no ISIS, Hizbollah, Iranian Pasdaran, Fatimiyoon and Zainabiyoon militias and their Sunni rivals etc. operating in Syria. Now when the major Syrian cities have been destroyed beyond repairs and hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed, maimed, injured, displaced internally and sought refuge in other countries, all this appears to be an exercise in futility.

Russia had a port then it left and wasn’t going to come back, they did.
Then they were going to pull out their Air Force, they built six new airdromes. What Russia say it was going to do this week? And what are they going to do next week? I can;t wait to find out!