Probability of possible outcomes

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

The Conservatives lost a significant amount of ground to Labour during March, according to the pollsters, as the Conservative lead has been cut from 9pc to just 3pc. The cause of the decline is not clear. ICM dates it to before the budget, which would suggest the Euro Referendum as the cause. But ComRes dates it to around the time of the budget and the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith. YouGov and Ipsos-MORI are ambiguous.

But all four pollsters agree that the Conservative lead has diminished. Translating this into a projected general election and ignoring future boundary changes, the Conservatives would just lose their overall parliamentary majority .

The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in March are: