Another grey man bites the dust

Yasuo Fukuda’s departure may just herald the political crisis Japan so badly needs

BRUISED, bothered and bewildered, a Japanese prime minister for the second time in a year has thrown in the towel after a few ineffectual months in the ring. Yasuo Fukuda, like his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, had seen his popularity ratings slump, as his party rivals sharpened their knives and his policies fizzled. Meanwhile, Japan's longest period of continuous economic expansion since the war had stuttered to a halt (see article). Whoever succeeds Mr Fukuda (Taro Aso, who thought a year ago he should precede him, is the favourite) will face the same seemingly insuperable obstacles. Japanese politics seems a hopeless and depressing mess. However, for those, like this newspaper, hoping for change in Japan, this is a moment not for hand-wringing gloom, but for hand-rubbing glee: Japanese politics may have entered its most exciting period in more than 50 years (see article).

The excitement lies in the probable collapse of the old political order and the realignment it will herald. Of course, such a transformation has been predicted—and avoided—for years. And the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) still has two powerful weapons: its well-oiled machinery of patronage and the incoherence of the main opposition, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Politics still looks deceptively like business as usual. Indeed, in the end, it was a belated attempt to pursue reform and take on some of the LDP's vested interests that did for Mr Fukuda. He exhausted himself struggling against them. The succession will be decided in the traditional manner: among the LDP's barons, without asking the electorate. Japan will have its third leader in a row not to have led his party to a victory at the polls. Japan's top-down politics stands in stark contrast to America's thrilling primary season.

Yet LDP rule in its present form is in terminal decline. This had been disguised until recently by the premiership from 2001 of Junichiro Koizumi, who combined two qualities rarely seen in Japan's politicians: popularity and reforming drive. When Mr Koizumi retired in 2006, Mr Abe, youthful and assertive, seemed well-placed to maintain this momentum. But he proved disastrously inept. And it turned out that Mr Koizumi's policies were liked much less than the man himself. Despite his recent efforts to revive reform, Mr Fukuda, a stopgap, marked a return to the old, grey, back-room style. This week the party has had to admit that this did not work either.

Time for a shake-up

If Mr Aso becomes the LDP's leader, he may call an election at once, hoping to profit from the bounce in popularity a fresh face might give the party. He certainly should do so, since it is time voters had their say. But even if he does not, an election is due by September next year. For all but 11 months of the past half-century, Japan has been ruled by the LDP. There is now a real chance the party might lose power, or at least the lower-house “supermajority” which allows it to force through legislation despite its loss in 2007 of a majority in the powerful upper house of the parliament. It will be years before the LDP has a real chance to win back that majority. Without upheaval, deadlock would be entrenched.

Which is why change might come at last. Mr Koizumi still has followers. One will challenge Mr Aso for the prime minister's job. But many have already realised that the LDP as currently constituted cannot represent their policy ambitions. Similarly, young Turks in the ranks of the DPJ vest few hopes in their party leader, Ichiro Ozawa, a political bruiser. The prospects have rarely been brighter for these two groups to join forces and drag Japan towards true policy-based competition between parties. Nor has the need ever been greater.