There are few nights as precious as tonight, the official start of the 2012 regular season. Even after tonight, 255 regular season games remain for us to enjoy. As usual, the defending Super Bowl champion hosts the opening game, and it didn’t take the NFL schedule makers long to decide on an opponent. This will be the 6th time in 8 meetings that the Giants and Cowboys will meet on primetime television. And as usual, the media will turn this game into another referendum on Tony Romo and Eli Manning.

Public perception says that Manning is the better quarterback, based largely exclusively on his post-season success and reputation as a clutch quarterback. And there’s a good reason he has such a reputation: Manning has won 8 of his last 9 playoff games and tied NFL single-season records with seven 4th-quarter comebacks and eight game-winning drives in 2011. Romo has a reputation as the chokiest of chokers, is 1-3 in playoff games, and has been less stellar than Manning late in games. While Manning has 21 career 4th quarter comebacks and is 21-22 in games where he had an opportunity for a 4th quarter comeback, Romo is just 13-20 in 4th quarter comeback opportunities. But let’s leave that to the side for now.

Because based on their regular season statistics, Romo absolutely crushes Manning, at least statistically. The gap shrunk significantly in 2011, but Romo’s track record of production and efficiently is considerably more impressive. Manning entered the league in 2004 but struggled his first three years; Romo first started in 2006 and was above average immediately. But let’s just focus on the past five seasons. The table below displays the statistics each quarterback produced from 2007 to 2011. Note that since Romo has missed time due to injury, I have added a third row, which pro-rates Romo’s numbers to 80 starts:

QB

GS

Cmp/Att

Cmp%

PassYd

Y/A

PTD

INT

Sk-SkYd

NY/A

ANY/A

Rsh-Yd-Td

Fum-FumRec

NetFum

CY/P

Manning

80

1601/2645

60.5

19530

7.4

131

85

128-923

6.7

6.3

133-229-3

47-10

37

5.9

Romo(act)

67

1452/2255

64.4

17931

8.0

130

59

121-763

7.2

7.2

122-359-4

36-16

20

7.0

Romo(pro)

80

1734/2693

64.4

21410

8.0

155

70

144-911

7.2

7.2

146-429-5

43-19

24

7.0

Romo leads in completion percentage, passing yards per game, yards per attempt, passing touchdowns per game, interceptions per game, yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt, rushing, fumbles and converted yards per play. And most of those categories aren’t even that close. The last one, converted yards per play, is probably the most important here, as it takes into account all of the other statistics. (I explained the metric in part 1 of my Greatest Quarterback of All-Time series.) Now turnovers are more random than most think, and from a predictive standpoint, they don’t necessarily tell us a lot about a quarterback’s future performance.1 But over the last five years Manning has been a turnover machine, with 111 turnovers over his 80 regular season starts;2 even looking at pro-rated numbers, Romo only has3 89 turnovers. That’s not an insignificant difference; add in the fact that Romo has a half-yard edge in NY/A and 26 more pro-rated touchdowns (and the same number of actual touchdowns), and Romo’s statistics have been significantly more impressive. Roughly to the tune of over a converted yard per play over the last five years.

That differential is larger than you probably think. The table below lists the top 25 quarterbacks in converted yards since 2007, and sorts them by converted yards per play (essentially ANY/A with a bonus for rushing touchdowns and a penalty for fumbles; other rushing data is ignored). Jets fans, look away. Trust me.

Romo is far behind Brady and Rodgers, but he’s essentially tied with Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning (the group is separated by four-hundredths of a yard per play). The younger Manning ranks a respectable 12th, but his production is closer to QB23 than QB3. If not for the “choker” and “clutch” labels they both possess, Romo would be viewed as one of the game’s elite quarterbacks while Manning would be an above-average starter.

To be fair to Manning, he’s improving. His CY/P has jumped from 4.4 to 5.7 to 6.2 to 5.8 to 7.2 over the last five years; Manning was a legitimately elite quarterback in the regular season last year, although 2011 is the first season for which that statement would be true. Romo has seen some variation, but has always outpaced Manning: he was at 6.9 in ’07, 6.2 in ’08, 7.4 in ’09, 6.7 in 2010, and 7.4 last year.

Romo has occasionally made bad decisions when it matters most.

Ah, but the reputations. Manning’s reputation is built on the back of the 2007 and 2011 postseasons, when he performed very well. But that only makes him a modern day Jim Plunkett, not Joe Montana. And while Manning was elite in 2011, he was a below-average quarterback in 2007. Manning led the Giants on three game-winning drives that postseason, an impressive accomplishment and added credence to the philosophy that he comes through in the clutch. But that’s just one side of the coin: in New York’s two Super Bowl postseasons, the Giants played five extremely close games and won them all. Some view that as a sign of good luck; others view it as an indication that Manning is able to elevate his game in the clutch. Historically speaking, those who believe the former have made lots of money off of those who believe the latter.

As for Romo, it all started with the botched hold against the Seahawks. Then Manning outplayed him in their playoff matchup a year later, as Romo’s Cowboys could not reach the end zone on their final drive.4 Romo did manage a playoff victory, a blowout against the Eagles, but the Cowboys were outclassed by the Vikings a week later. Even worse, Dallas has been kept out of the playoffs since then, earning Romo more criticism.

If you haven’t played around with Pro-Football-Reference’s Game Play Finder, you’re missing out. It’s one of the coolest tools on the internet. We can use it to look at how Manning and Romo have fared in clutch situations. I’m defining a clutch situation as a play in the 4th quarter or overtime of any regular season or playoff game since 2007, when the game was tied or the quarterback’s team was trailing by no more than 8 points.

And in these situations, Manning has been arguably the best quarterback in the league. Check out the numbers5:

Of course, you probably noticed that Romo isn’t too far behind. And if we want to be consistent and give Manning credit for his improvement played in 2011, we should probably do the same for Romo. Here is how quarterbacks performed in clutch situations last season:

That’s right: Romo posted arguably the best numbers in the NFL last season in clutch situations. But since that doesn’t match the narrative, don’t expect to see the media mentioning that tonight.

In any event, I don’t believe we can judge much from a small sample, which is why who the “clutch” quarterback of the day changes with the wind. The consistent takeaway is that Tony Romo has been an elite quarterback over the last five years, while Eli Manning has been an elite quarterback for one season. Yes, Manning has been great in the clutch — while Romo hasn’t played nearly as poorly as is portrayed — but that’s over a much smaller sample size. Manning does have the great 4th quarter comeback record, while Romo’s is less than stellar. But Romo’s 4th quarter comeback mark is much better than Aaron Rodgers’, who would be considered a choker if the media wanted to be consistent. The one positive for Romo is that if he does manage to win a Super Bowl, his legacy will change significantly, and he will then become a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate if he can sustain his past level of play for a few more seasons. John Elway, Len Dawson, Steve Young, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning were considered stats guys for much of their careers. Manning, Young and Elway were considered elite quarterbacks who just couldn’t win the big one, while many questioned whether Brees or Dawson were truly elite because of their lack of ultimate success. But all five quarterbacks eventually won Super Bowls in their 30s, and all are current or future Hall of Famers. At 32-years-old, the book is far from closed on Romo’s legacy.

Manning himself is a good example of this. In ’07, he led the league in interceptions in the regular season but won the Super Bowl. In 2010, he again threw the most interceptions in the league; the next year, he again won the Super Bowl. [↩]

Note that the Cowboys had a final drive to win the game only after the Giants went three-and-out on their previous possession, which ended on a Manning sack on a third-and-four. [↩]

Note: PFR’s Game Play Finder lists almost everything; one thing it doesn’t list is sack yards lost. I have the raw data but not the energy to get the actual sack yardage lost on sacks, so instead I’m giving each quarterback -7 yards for each sack when calculating their ANY/A. I know, I’m lazy. [↩]

You wrote that you don’t believe in coming to judgment using small samples, but apparently you don’t have an issue using stats from games that have yet to be played. Pro-rating statistics is a solid tool for projecting future events, but should never be used to analyze the past.

Chase Stuart

Thanks for stopping by the site. I try to make this as user-friendly as possible, and I knew someone would ask for either per-game stats or to pro-rate Romo’s stats because of the difference in games played. I thought it would look better visually just adding another row then trying to force in more columns to show per-game stats.

Joe M

Pro-rating for the past is basically the same as going by game averages, so it really isn’t a big deal. The pro-rating numbers didn’t change the CY/P.

Rich in TX

I agree with your conclusion; Romo is better than Eli. As soon as Romo gets consistent play from his D/ST and his O Line, he will have the SB rings as well and the rest of the world will realize he’s been better all along. Some people only remember a play from three years ago rather than actually watching the games.

Joe johnson

You can spin stats anyway you want to make Romo look good. The facts remain that Eli has 1 more SB mvp than Romo has playoff wins.

It has been shown that Eli was under pressure much more than Romo last year and had the worst running game in the league.

Also do your stats mention that Romo gets to play in a dome while Eli plays kn the worst wind stadium in the league.
Rkmo singlehandidly lost the Jets game, Lions game and 1st Giants game. Even Eli’s bad int year in 2010 if their defense did not blow a 21 pt 4th Qtr lead with 7 min he would have won another NFC East title.

You can spjn your numbers all you want but there is short list of QB who you would take to win a road plaoff game and Romo is nowhere near the conversation while fhe other is at the

Jnors

Couldn’t have said it better myself. There is a reason that Parcells (genius) never ever wanted to put Romo in a game, Bledsoe simply forced him to with his final blunder.

Dave

Are you nuts? Parcells loved and still does love Romo. Watch any of the recent interviews with him. Look at anything Parcells has ever said about the guy. Sean Payton called Parcells and tried to trade for Romo long before Bledsoe got benched, and Parcells told him to “lie down with a blanket and have some warm milk.”

Eli is a solid quarterback with a strong supporting cast. Romo is one of the most gifted QBs to ever play the game. Were it not for Eli’s last name and The Fumbled Snap at Seattle, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.

Nobody was saying Ben Rothelisberger was a better quarterback than Peyton Manning when he won a ring first. That’s a better comparison: Eli is Ben to Romo’s Peyton, and the numbers bear that out. Eli has folded and choked away as many or more games over the years as Romo. If it weren’t for Generic Boring Cowboys Hatred (TM) and The Fumbled Snap, and a phony narrative that the media insists on irrationally hanging around Romo’s neck, this wouldn’t even be a conversation, not even close.

Not. Even. Close.

Jec

And you’re continueing the common narrative referred to above that has no statistical backing, and can only be quantified with generalities, like “Eli is clutch”. Notice how you refer to a blown 4th quarter lead, once again a TEAM statistic. If Dallas’ Defense gives up more than 21 points in the 4th quarter it’s Tony Romo’s fault? Stats that Eli defenders often refer to are team accomplishments. BTW, Eli would have zero SB MVPs if they could give it to team defense. Giant’s defense won those superbowls, not your golden boy. I’ll admit that Eli is a good QB. He led the league in 4th quarter comebacks last year and everyone knows that he is clutch, but the thing you won’t hear about is how Romo was second in the league last year in 4th quarter comebacks. Also, Romo’s QB numbers get better by quarter, with the 4th quarter being the highest.

Romo didn’t single handedly lose any of those games. Let’s break down the NY Jets game first. Here is how the 4th quarter went:

dallas defense gives up 84 yard touchdown drive to NYJ
dallas punter gets blocked by jets defense, they score another touchdown
at this point the score is tied, Tony Romo throws an int to Revis
NYJ kick the field goal to win

The problem is that the only highlight ever shown was the interception. Do you really think it was Romo’s fault that the defense gave up that touchdown to such a pathetic Offensive team, or that Romo somehow was on the field and missed a key block to allow a blocked punt?

Surely, you forgot how our defense rolled over on it’s back for your beloved Giants, but I’ll break down the 4th quarter of that game as well to show how your generalities FAIL:

So, two touchdown passes and a 50 yard, 30 second march to get Dallas in field goal range vs. Dallas defense giving up two touchdowns in 3 and a half minutes and letting the Giants block a last second field goal and your answer is that, “Tony Romo single handedly lost the game for Dallas.” You are a complete, blind, idiot.

Dave

^^^ This ^^^

K.L.

Great post, Chase.

Narratives – in sports, politics, or any other subject – are so powerful because they reflect people’s unwillingness or inability to critically assess their beliefs. To challenge one’s basic assumptions about the world requires a degree of intellectual and emotional autonomy that is burdensome to acquire. As an old professor of mine liked to say: “It’s hard to think.”

As a fan of both the Cowboys and Romo, it’s easy to see that if a couple of plays turned out differently, his reputation would be much different. A couple of examples come to mind. In the 2007 Divisional round against the Giants, Patrick Crayton pulls up on a pass in the 4th quarter that would have been a sure touchdown. On the opening drive of that game, DeMarcus Ware is wrongly called offsides on 3rd down; that call extends a drive that results in a touchdown pass from Manning to Amani Toomer a few plays later. Neither of those plays have any bearing on Romo’s ability, but if either had happened then Dallas likely would’ve hosted the NFC Championship against the Packers – a team they soundly beat earlier in the season.

Here’s to another season of football – and hopefully one that goes easy on the narratives.

DB

I understand that this is a metrics oriented site and I read it daily. I am a numbers guy too, but I just don’t think that everything can be described by numbers all of the time. I’ve watched every Romo-Manning matchup and I don’t think the numbers jibe with the impression you get from watching the game. Take the first Cowboys-Giants game in the week 13 of the 2011 regular season. The Cowboys had a 12 point lead with 5:41 left in the game. Manning leads the team to a touchdown and the Cowboys receive the ball with 3:14 on the clock. One first down ends the game and we don’t have a conversation about Manning’s second Superbowl MVP. But Romo badly overthrows Miles Austin and the Giants win the game and the rest is history. CY/P and ANY/A weights all plays the same, but clearly some plays are more important than others, which I feel is problematic.

One other brief example, the NFC conference championship game last season has Eli Manning with QBR slightly more than Alex Smith and passer rating that trails Smith. Anyone who watched that game can easily tell you who the better quarterback was. QBR tries to account for game situation, but clearly it didn’t separate the 2 quarterbacks in this situation and the passer rating is completely misleading. Sometimes the metrics just don’t work.

I agree with you that Romo is an excellent quarterback and is unfairly criticized. If you ask me who was better over the last 5 years, I actually think it might be Romo (although he is not penalized for missed starts). In your article, you strike out “largely” and put in “exclusively on his post-season success and reputation as a clutch quarterback”. I think one other factor for this perception, has to do with the recent head to head success that Manning has over Romo, 6 wins in the last 7 games that Romo has started against the Giants including playoffs.

Chase Stuart

In the NFCCG, a huge part of why Manning’s game was much better than Smith’s was because he was facing an elite defense. Manning did not have a great game — but he did pretty well considering he was facing such a stout D. Note that ESPN’s Total QBR (that’s what I thought you meant) had Manning over Smith in that game.

Passer rating is fundamentally flawed, so I’m not surprised that Smith was ranked better.

DB

Yes, ESPN’s Total QBR was what I was referring to. Manning had a QBR of 38.6 versus a QBR of 30.7 for Smith. This 8 point difference doesn’t seem to me to accurately reflect the gulf between the play of each quarterback. I would argue that the SF defense was superior to NY’s defense – Manning was sacked 6 times and hit a total of 20 times during that game. It’s my understanding that QBR doesn’t account for strength of the opposition, so Manning didn’t benefit in any way – I’m presuming that was what you were referring to with “…facing an elite defense”.

I know you have a different type of analysis than QBR, but the reason I brought it up is that the metrics from your article do not take into account game situations. QBR does factor game situation but I don’t believe it always works. As you refine your methodology, as you have done the last few years – I hope it takes into account that some plays are more important than others.

Chase Stuart

No doubt, we can go more in depth with statistics. Brian Burke does a great job with that, and ESPN’s Total QBR does the same. I agree that game situation is important, but because I like to compare across eras, I’m limited with what I have. The key is to recognize those limitations, and not simply throw the baby out with the bathwater.

My point was that Manning was better than Smith without adjusting for opponent (you are correct that QBR does not adjust for SOS) and way better once you adjust for opponent.

But let’s not overstate Manning’s game in the abstract. If it was against a league average opponent in a regular season game, nobody would have been impressed. Manning had 64 dropbacks and averaged 4.2 NY/A. The Giants offense was bad for most of the game.

New York had 17 drives; the last one began on the SF 24 following Kyle Williams’ fumble.

In their first 16 drives, the Giants scored 17 points (with 7 of those coming on a 29-yard drive following another Williams fumble) and gained 341 yards. Those are horrible numbers; 1.06 PPD and 21.3 YPD would have been worse than the Jaguars last year (1.15 PPD, 22.1 YPD).

Now the game was played in bad weather and against a great defense. That’s why Manning’s performance was looked at favorably. But let’s not make it out to be an amazing offensive performance.

DB

Yes, I see that you don’t have access to all the data that you need to do these comparisons over a longer period time. I also, wasn’t trying to imply that the Giants offense was at all good in the NFCCG. My point was that the Giants offense was far more effective than SF’s, after all SF converted only one third down all game. As bad as the numbers are, the Giants offense was far more effective, but no stat really captures the differential. Also, Manning took 20 hits but never seemed to flinch. That kind of toughness doesn’t get reflected in a number anywhere.

I was not implying that it was an amazing offensive performance at all. Just saying…

Chase Stuart

Fair enough. I agree it was a solid game by Eli and definitely better than the numbers show.

James

Romo single-handedly lost the Jets, Lions, and first Giants games? Check again. In just those three games Romo completed 68.4% of his 114 passes for 8.7 YPA, with a 9:4 TD:INT ratio.

What about that says single-handedly lost? If anything the only reason the Cowboys were even in those games is because of Romo.

Jnors

It’s easy James, his bonehead pick 6 lost the Jets game and his boneheaded 2 pick 6’s lost the Lions game. (or did he have 3, I lost count) Ask Dan Marino how much stats matter….numbers numbers numbers, you can have em, all I care about is the number 2, which is how many rings Eli has. Case closed.

Crash

Romo’s pick 6 against the Jets? Never happened, check your stats.

Richie

So, Jim Plunkett = Eli Manning?

Chase Stuart

Eli is better than Plunkett. Well, at least I expect his career to end in such a way that he is better than Plunkett. My only point was that 2 great postseason runs doesn’t make you an all-time great quarterback.

Richie

Sorry, Chase. I was responding to Jnors comment that the 2 Super Bowl rings are the only thing that matters.

Dave

Or, Trent Dilfer = Eli Manning?

Richie

No, Dilfer can only count 1 ringzzzz.

Independent George

“all I care about is the number 2, which is how many rings Eli has. Case closed.”

I got so caught up in the analysis I almost didn’t notice the captions. Bravo, sir.

Chase Stuart

The captions are the best part of most of my posts.

Adam Clark

One thing many don’t take into account is schemes. Romo plays in a Air Coryell/Vertical offense which is one of the most demanding of schemes for a QB. The QB needs pin point accuracy and the WR and QB must have their timing down perfect. It’s also a very predictable offense which makes it even harder on the QB. Eli started in a Smash Mouth offense i.e. run heavy offense with a bus driver type QB. He only becomes successful when Kevin Gilbride arrives in 2007 and begins to mix his trademark Run & Shoot plays in with Coughlin’s Smash Mouth. This gives Eli his go to plays for when they need to pick up the pace. The Run & Shoot being where one or more of the receivers (usually Victor Cruz) is allowed to run to the opening in the defense while the QB Simply throws to that open area. It’s the same thing you do in back yard football. This is why the slot guy is so productive for the Giants. Slot receivers are more versital with their route running. You find a way to take away Eli’s gimmick plays and he’s back being average.

Independent George

“You find a way to take away Eli’s gimmick plays and he’s back being average.”

Except that’s not a gimmick anymore – that’s a substantial part of nearly every offense in the league right now. It’s been that way for years.

Richie

Is the “bad decision” dating Jessica Simpson or dumping her????

Chase Stuart

Good question, good question.

Joe johnson

Again with stats. Did he not cough the ball up and throw an int late in the Jets game. How many pick 6 did he throw agaknst Detrlkt with the lead. He missed a wide open WR tk seal the game against NY.

More nonsense about luck in the SB. Only QB in SB history to lead his team on a final TD drive when trailing by more than 3 points. It was TD or bust. Go look at his 4th qtr numbers that 1st SB. Who led a final TD drive in second SB not Romo

Sorry. If his name was not Manning this would not be an issue. Keep clinging to fantasy stats to make your argument

Richie

Has anybody denied that Eli Manning has been fantastic in some clutch situations in big games?

My takeaway from this article is that the general perception is that E. Manning is a great QB while Romo is a choker. But Chase is pointing out that Romo has been a pretty darned good QB (and probably better than E. Manning) during the regular season over the past 5 years.

And in clutch situations (including playoffs) the past 5 years, E. Manning has been the best, but Romo has been pretty good as well.

Chase Stuart

We’ll have to get used to newcomers, Richie. Today was a record day for traffic at FP. Who would have guessed that the existence of NFL games would make more people come here?!

Joe johnson

Chase

Here is your flawed logic on the SF game – it was not against a league avg opponent. QB’s who played the game all said it was a tremendous performance. But why not dismiss those guys because his YPA were low. He got hit 35 times on 64 drop backs

Joe johnson

I will be the 1st to admit that Romo played a tremendous game. Dallas should stick to keeping him under center rather than shotgun all the time

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