At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (965 hPa) located at 18.5S 162.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds=======================25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds==================40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection persistent over low level circulation center. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. System is being steered south southeast by deep layer northwesterly. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center LG surround yielding DT=4.5 MET=4.5, and PT=4.0. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southeast movement and then southeast with gradual weakening.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (995 hPa) located at 11.9S 57.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds=====================110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds up to 100 NM from the center, up to 220 NM in the southern semi-circle

Additional Information======================Microwave imagery SSMIS at 1408z depicts few evolution of the deep convection organization, with offset west of the low level circulation center, due to the persistent easterly wind shear.

Structure and intensity of the system are almost stable within the past 6 hours (wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

The system should resume a general south westwards track for the next 12 hours on the northern edge of a low to mid troposphere ridge. Beyond, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system with a northerly steering flow. Consequently, the system should track southwards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday January 5th.

Intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the previous issue. Indeed, lower level environmental conditions are favorable (very good lower levels convergence and favorable sea surface temperature). The upper levels vertical wind shear may continue to fluctuate during the next 24 hours. Consequently, the deepening of this large size system should be laborious during the next 24 hours. Beyond, located under the upper level ridge, system should benefit of good conditions to intensify more sharply during 24 hours. During night from Thursday to Friday, system should undergo cooler sea surface temperatures.

On and after Friday, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Thursday and Friday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion, and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (967 hPa) located at 17.7S 161.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds=======================20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds==================30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Convection persistent over low level circulation center in past 6 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center W surround yielding DT=5.0 MET=4.5 PT=4.5. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Area of disturbed weather at the extreme East of the basin: Convection remains very fluctuating. According to microwave imagery (SSMIS 0233Z) the low level circulation center is located near 9.5S/87.5E. The circulation is poorly defined. System moves westward at about 10kt. mean sea low pressure is estimated at 1002 hPa. Maximum winds are estimated at 15-20 knots near the center. Most of the available numerical weather prediction models don't deepen this system significantly during the next 3 days. Upper level wind shear remains the main limiting factor for the development of this low.

For the next 72 hours, potential for the development of another tropical depression east of the basin is poor to fair.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 11.8S 57.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds=====================110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds up to 100 NM from the center, up to 220 NM in the southern semi-circle

Additional Information======================Microwave imagery TRMM at 0701z depicts few evolution of the deep convection organization during the past 6 hours, with offset northwest of the low level circulation center.

Structure and intensity of the system are almost stable within the past 6 hours (wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

The system should resume a general southwestwards track for the next 24 hours on the northern edge of a low to mid troposphere ridge. Beyond, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system with a northerly steering flow. Consequently, the system should track southwards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday January 5th. Last available numerical weather prediction models forecast a faster movement on and after 24 hours, so the closest point of approach of Réunion island is forecast about 6 hours sooner than the previous issue.

Intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the previous issue. Indeed, lower level environmental conditions are favorable (very good lower levels convergence and favorable sea surface temperatures). The upper levels vertical wind shear may continue to fluctuate during the next 36 hours. Consequently, the deepening of this large size system should be laborious during the next 36 hours. Beyond, system should benefit of good conditions to intensify more sharply during 24 hours. During night from Thursday to Friday, system should undergo cooler sea surface temperature.

On and after Friday, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Thursday and Friday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion, and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 06F (1005 hPa) located near 22.2S 164.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor during past 24 hours. Convection persistent to the east of the partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies under a shortwave upper trough in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly moves it southwestward with a slight intensification.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (950 hPa) located at 16.9S 161.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds=======================30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds==================50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant130 NM from the center in southern semi-circle90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Eye cloud filled, thus no longer discernible in infrared/visible. Deep convection persistent over low level circulation center over past 6 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperatures are around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center LG surround yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with gradual weakening.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 10.9S 58.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds=====================110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds 35 knots up to 100 NM from the center, up to 250 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 350 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Additional Information======================Infrared satellite picture depicts an important area of deep convection in the western semi-circle. microwave imagery SSMIS at 04.15z confirms the convective band west of the low level circulation center.

ASCAT data from 0600z support current intensity and still depict a singular wind structure with weak winds roughly within 1 degree from the center and strong winds far from the center (wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

The system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 hours on the northern edge of a low to mid troposphere ridge. Beyond, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system. Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday January 5th.

Lower level environmental conditions are favorable (very good lower levels convergence and favorable sea surface temperatures). The upper levels vertical wind shear may continue to fluctuate during the next 48 hours. Consequently, the deepening of this large size system should be laborious during the next 48 hours. Beyond, system should benefit of good conditions to intensify more sharply during 36 hours.

On and after j+4, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft and system should begin to track over cooler sea surface temperatures. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between j+4 and j+5.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion, and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06F (1008 hPa) located at 19.0S 165.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperatures are around 27C.

Convection and organization has slightly increased in the last 24 hours with convection present in the sector from northeast through east to south of the center. System lies to the east of an upper trough in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southward with slight intensification.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (940 hPa) located at 16.4S 161.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds=======================35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds==================60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant180 NM from the center in southern semi-circle100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection around eye decreasing past 6 hours due to cloud top temperature warming. Eye cooling past 12 hours and becoming partially cloud filled but still discernible in visible. Strong upper divergence present to southeast of system. System lies in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. FREDA is being steered south by deep layer northerly mean wind flow. Sea surface temperatures are around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on LG surround yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.0, PT=5.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with gradual weakening.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 11.1S 58.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds=====================110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds 35 knots up to 100 NM from the center, up to 250 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 350 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Additional Information======================Very deep convection associated with cold cloud tops (-93C on N19 pass at 2152z) are occurring in the northwestern quadrant. Microwave imagery of that N19 pass show a 0.3 curved band associated. OSCAT data from 2036z support current intensity and still depict a singular wind structure with weak winds roughly within 1 degree from the center and strong winds within a building large ring...(wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

On the northern edge of a low to mid-level ridge, the system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 hours. This motion could be affected by a contradictory westerly to northwesterly steering flow generated by the near equatorial ridge located to the north east of the system resulting in a slow and irregular motion. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system (axed between 65e and 70e). Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday 05. NOGAPS and GFDN at 1200z now show again a southwards turn before 55E ...putting the spread by the time of the turn between 55E and 58E. It is worth noting that the ECMWF ensemble forecast system still show little spread through the whole forecast period ...giving a high degree of confidence in the official forecast.

According to numerical weather prediction fields, the shear should gradually decrease today.Tomorrow, the environmental conditions should become excellent resulting in steady intensification (good oceanic heat contain, low shear, good upper level divergence with 2 outflow channels both north and south). The current intensity forecast is reduced in this package specially for the next two days: given the current broad nature of the wind field, intensification should stay gradual ... This is clearly suggested by dynamical guidance as ECMWF and ALADIN-REUNION. Beyond that time, the forecast intensity get close to the 1800z STIPS suite but i snot so aggressive (vmax at 85-90 knots shown). Thursday night, the northwesterly shear should increase over the system resulting in weakening. Friday and beyond, cool water and increasing shear should start the extratropical process.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (940 hPa) located at 15.8S 161.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery.

Hurricane Force Winds=======================35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds==================60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant180 NM from the center in southern semi-circle100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection remains persistent near the center. Cloud tops warming past 6 hours. Strong upper divergence present to southeast of system. System lies in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow remains good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. FREDA is being steered south southeast by north northwest deep layer wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with DG eye embedded in B yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.5 and PT=6.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with gradual weakening after 24 hours.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 10.9S 59.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds=====================100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 350 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Additional Information======================Latest ASCAT pass at 1715z was very helpful to assess both position, structure and intensity of the system. If winds are weak close to the center (within roughly a degrees radius from the center), near gale force winds are occurring trough a significant part of the northern semi-circle... and up to 120 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect...this wind field structure is close to a monsoon depression.

On the northern edge of a low to mid-level ridge, the system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion could be affected by a contradictory westerly to northwesterly steering flow generated by the near equatorial ridge located to the north east of the system resulting in a slow and irregular motion. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system (axed between 65e and 70.0E). Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. Available numerical weather prediction models are in lower agreement compared to 24 hours ago ...with disagreement coming from the location of the southwards turn ... GFDN and NOGAPS (0600 run) make the turn more to the west (just west of 55e). Latest run of ALADIN-REUNION show a turn near 58.0E ... current track remain close to the previous one and is adjusted according to first outputs from 1200z ECMWF. It is worth noting that the ECMWF ensemble show little spread ...giving a high degree of confidence in the deterministic solution.

According to numerical weather prediction fields, the shear (main inhibitor currently) should gradually decrease until monday. On monday and mainly on Tuesday, the environmental conditions should become excellent resulting in steady intensification (good oceanic heat contain, low shear, good upper level divergence with 2 outflow channels both north and south).

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. Agalega is currently affected by heavy rainfalls (154 mm in the last 12 hours at 1800z)

It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position... specially at long range. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to be large and associated hazards could affect widespread areas.

At the extreme east of the basin: satellite imagery show a well defined low level circulation center at present time, near 9.3S 85.5E tracking eastwards at about 7 knots. According to numerical weather prediction fields, conditions could become more conducive for development over the area between Tuesday and Wednesday: improving low level convergence associated with a trade winds surge from the southwest associated with low shear.

For the area at the extreme east of the basin, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor tomorrow and become fair on Tuesday and beyond.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (940 hPa) located at 15.3S 160.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds=======================30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds==================50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================130 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle210 NM from the center in southwest quadrant110 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved slightly in the last 24 hours. FREDA continues to intensify with eye warming and convective tops cooling further. Strong upper divergence present to southeast of system. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow good in the eastern semi-circle and restricted elsewhere. FREDA is being steered south southeastward by north northwest deep layer wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye patter with OW eye in W surround yielding DT=6.0, MET=6.0, PT=6.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with no further intensification.

Additional Information======================According to satellite imagery and diffusiometre data (OSCAT 0813 UTC), show always a large low level circulation, already slightly elonged, with strongest winds far from the center in the northern and mainly in the southern semi-circle. The center seems still not well defined with persistent multiple vortices (satellite imagery). Under the negative effect of a rather strong easterly constraint (30 knots according to CIMSS data), the main convection is only located in the western semi-circle.

Resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 to 36 hours. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system. Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. Available numerical weather prediction models are in very good agreement on that track even in the long term forecast... so there is a higher than usual degree of confidence in the track forecast.

According to numerical weather prediction fields, the shear (main inhibitor currently) should gradually decrease until monday. On monday and mainly on tuesday, the environmental conditions should become excellent resulting in steady intensification (good oceanic heat contain, low shear, good upper level divergence with 2 outflow channels both north and south).

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position... specially at long range. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to be large and associated hazards could affect widespread areas.

Additional Information======================According to satellite imagery and surface obs, the circulation is clearly well defined, around an unique center, more symmetrical than yesterday. Under the negative effect of a rather strong easterly constraint (30 knots according to CIMSS data), the main convection is only located in the western semi-circle.

On the northern edge of a low to mid-level ridge, the system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 to 36 hours. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system. Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. Available numerical weather prediction models are in very good agreement on that track even in the long term forecast ... so there is a higher than usual degree of confidence in the track forecast.

According to numerical weather prediction fields, the shear (main inhibitor currently) should gradually decrease until monday. Tuesday, the environmental conditions should become excellent resulting in steady intensification (good oceanic heat contain, low shear, good upper level divergence with 2 outflow channels both north and south).

Given all the above, inhabitants of Agalega, La Reunion and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position ... specially at long range. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to be large and associated hazards could affect widespread areas.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (940 hPa) located at 14.6S 161.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared/visible radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds=======================35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds==================55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================160 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly in last 24 hours. Deep convection increased around eye past 3 hours due to cloud top cooling. Eye becoming partially cloud filled past 3 hours but still discernible in infrared. Strong upper divergence present to southeast of system. System lies in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow remains good. Cyclone moving south southeastward under the steering influence of the deep STR positioned to the east. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with DG eye in LG surround yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.5 and PT=5.5. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (940 hPa) located at 14.1S 160.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds=======================25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds==================40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================150 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly in the last 12 hours. Eye well defined in visible/infrared. Cloud tops warming in past 3 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good. System steered south southeast by northwesterly deep layer mean. Sea surface temperature around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye embedded in LG surround yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.0 and PT=5.5. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with further intensification.

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low, Former Mitchell (995 hPa) located at 21.1S 110.2E or 415 km west northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The former cyclone is reported as moving south at 11 knots.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (955 hPa) located at 13.5S 160.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery with animation.

Hurricane Force Winds=======================25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds==================40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================140 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly in the last 24 hours. Eye well defined on infrared. Eye warming with cloud tops cooling past 3 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Outflow good. System is being steered to the south southeast by northwesterly deep layer mean. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with MG eye embedded in LG surrounding yielding DT=5.0, MET=4.5, PT agrees with MET. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with continued intensification.

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (994 hPa) located at 19.8S 110.2E or 470 km west northwest of Exmouth and 670 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds===============30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Additional Information======================Convection and organisation of the system has continued to weaken in the last 6-12 hours as it moves south into an unfavourable region of cooler ocean temperatures. Dvorak FT has reduced to 2.0 since 1130 UTC based on Pattern and MET, CI has been kept at 3.0 with weakening constraints. The recent ASCAT and ship reports indicate marginal gales on the western side. Intensity is 40 knots, slightly lower than ADT and CIMSS AMSU suggest.

The system is currently in a moderately sheared environment and is expected to continue to weaken as it moves further south into cooler ocean temperatures. Gales may persist in the southeast quadrant into Monday.

A consistant south to southwesterly track is likely in the next 24 to 48 hours.

At 9:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Freda (980 hPa) located at 12.7S 160.1E or 365 km south of Honiara and 1600 km east northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds==================20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant70 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Gale Force Winds===============100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant160 NM from the center in northeast quadrant120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant160 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Additional Information======================Cyclone has intensitified in a weak shear environment, possibly assisted by an upper level trough well to the west. Curved band wrap 0.75 with adjustment 0.5 due to white. Eye pattern gives T no. of 5 but holding final T at 4 due to constraints. Cyclone is expected to continue to deepen further in favorable shear environment while moving south over the next 24 to 48 hours.

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (990 hPa) located at 19.0S 110.0E or 540 km northwest of Exmouth and 760 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds===============50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Additional Information======================Convective organisation has reduced since 0700 UTC. This timing corresponds with the system moving over lower Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential [TCHP] water. Dvorak FT has reduced to 2.5 since 0700 UTC based mainly on pattern and MET, but CI has been kept at 3.0 due to constraints on weakening.

A CI of 3.0, along with ADT and CIMSS AMSU all indicate a current intensity of 40 knots.

Shear and upper divergence remain favourable until about 00 UTC Sunday. Even though there have been signs of weakening, due to the possibility of re invigoration overnight intensity has been kept at 40 knots until 00 UTC Sunday. Colder water and increasing shear should then lead to the system weakening during the remainder of Sunday and Monday.

Additional Information======================According to satellite imagery and surface observations, the large low level circulation is still somewhat elongated but appears more symmetrical than yesterday. The center is still not well defined with evidence of multiple vortices. Under the negative effect of a rather strong easterly constraint (30-40 kt according to CIMSS data), the main convection is only located in the western semi-circle.

On the northern edge of a low to mid-level ridge, the system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 36 to 48 hours. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system. Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. Available numerical weather prediction models are in very good agreement on that track even in the long term forecast ... so there is a higher than usual degree of confidence in the track forecast.

According to numerical weather prediction fields, the shear (main inhibitor currently) should gradually decrease until monday. Tuesday, the environmental conditions should become excellent resulting in steady intensification (good oceanic heat contain, low shear, good upper level divergence with 2 outflow channels both north and south). The current intensity forecast is based on ALADIN-REUNION and ECMWF up to Monday and then is closed to STIPS up to the end of the forecast period.

Given all the above, inhabitants of Agalega, La Reunion and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position ... specially at long range. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to be large and associated hazards could affect widespread areas.

At the extreme east of the basin: Convective activity remains strong within the monsoon trough but satellite imagery, surface obs and scatt data do not show a well defined low level circulation center at present time, although OSCAT pass at 0548Z suggest an inch of a surface circulation near 8.7S 81.7E. According to numerical weather prediction fields, conditions could become more conducive for development over the area monday: improving low level convergence associated with a trade winds surge from the southwest associated with low shear.

For the area at the extreme east of the basin, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor tomorrow and become fair Monday and Tuesday.

At 3:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Freda (985 hPa) located at 12.6S 159.8E or 355 km south of Honiara and 1580 km east northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds==================50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant60 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Gale Force Winds===============80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant140 NM from the center in northeast quadrant120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant140 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (994 hPa) located at 17.9S 110.3E or 600 km northwest of Exmouth and 760 km west northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds===============80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant110 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Additional Information======================Tropical Cyclone Mitchell has a compact area of convection near the center. Current intensity has remained steady over the past 6 hours with DT 3.0 consistent with MET. ASCAT pass at 0140Z showed some 35 knot observations but missed southeast quadrants where the strongest winds associated with spiral banding are expected.

The system has been located by visible imagery and has shown a consistent south southwest motion over the past 24 hours. All model guidance is consistent with a southwards motion over the next 36 hours.

The system is expected to continue to intensify in the short term under favorable conditions [high ocean heat content and CIMSS shear about 5m/s]. As Mitchell heads south of 20.0S during Sunday, the system should weaken as it moves over cooler waters.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Freda (985 hPa) located at 12.3S 159.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds==================40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant60 NM from the center elsewhere

Gale Force Winds================140 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has significantly improved in the last 24 hours. Convection has increased in the past 12 hours. Primary band trying to wrap around the low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Outflow good. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=3.5, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

Most global models agree on a south southwest movement then south with further intensification.

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (995 hPa) located at 17.3S 110.7E or 630 km northwest of Exmouth and 750 km west northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds===============60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant110 NM from the center in southeast quadrant100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Additional Information======================Tropical Cyclone Mitchell has intensified overnight, with improved convective organization. Current intensity is based on a CB wrap of 0.7-0.8 giving DT 3.0 consistent with MET.

The system has been located by microwave imagery and has shown a consistent south southwest motion over the past 12 hours. All model guidance is consistent with a southwards motion over the next 24-36 hours.

The system is expected to continue to intensify in the short term under favorable conditions [high ocean heat content and shear less than 15 knots]. As Mitchell heads south of 20.0S during Sunday, the system should weaken as it moves over cooler waters.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Freda (995 hPa) located at 11.5S 160.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds==================50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================130 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has significantly improved in the last 12 hours Convection has increased in the past 12 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the south. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=3.0. MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southwest movement then south with further intensification.

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 16.1S 110.7E or 740 km north northwest of Exmouth and 830 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information======================Convective organisation associated with system 04U has improved in the last 24 hours. This is likely due to a Kelvin wave propagating through the area.

Mean winds of 35 knots in the southeast quadrant only. Expect mean winds of 30 knots in the remaining quadrants.

Ocean heat content is high in the vicinity and shear is less than 15 knots. Upper divergence currently good to east and southeast. Conditions expected to remain favorable to very favorable over the next two days before the system moves over cooler water off the west coast. TPW is favorable, i.e. no dry air threatening the system. Expect development at D or D rate.

Cooler waters south of 20S should begin to weaken the system from early Monday.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (999 hPa) located at 11.1S 160.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots. Position poor based on hourly gms enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization as significantly improved in the last 24 hours. Convection has increased in the past 12 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. System lies under an upper diffluent region with good outflow and center in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.5, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models move 05F southwest then south with further intensification.

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 16.0S 111.7E or 710 km north northwest of Exmouth and 760 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Additional Information======================Convective organization associated with system 04U has greatly improved in the last 24 hours, likely due to a Kelvin wave propagating through the area. Low level squall lines seem to have reduced in the last few hours indicating an increase in the mid level moisture. Increases in TPW in the area supports this.

Ocean heat content is high in the vicinity and shear is less than 20 knots. Upper divergence currently good to east and southeast. Conditions expected to remain favorable to very favorable over the next two days before the system moves over cooler water off the west coast. TPW is favorable, i.e. no dry air threatening the system. Expect development at D or D+ rate.

Cooler waters south of 20.0S should begin to weaken the system from early Monday.

Southwest of Diego Garcia: last animated satellite pictures and surface observations suggest a poorly defined and very elongated circulation approximately located near 10.2S 66.5E at 09Z. Estimated mean sea level pressure is about 1003 hPa. Last ASCAT data suggest 10-15 knots maximum winds, locally 20-25 knots far away in the South with gradient effect. Currently environmental conditions are marginal. Low level convergence is indirect equatorward (due to near equatorial westerly flow), and the trade inflow is moderate. Easterly upper level wind shear is moderate (20-25 knots according to the CIMSS data), North of the upper tropospheric ridge. For the next 3 days, last available numerical weather prediction models slowly deepen this low, with a general west southwestward movement. Low level convergence may progressively improve. Up to Sunday, the limiting factor for the development of this low should be the upper level wind shear. On and after Monday morning, wind shear is expected to decrease and the minimum should more significantly deepen.

At the extreme East of the basin: animated satellite suggests a very ill-defined low level circulation within an area of strong and very fluctuating convective activity situated North of 10.0S and between 80.0E to 87.0E. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1005 hPa. ASCAT data do not allow to identify a center for this circulation. Now current environmental conditions are still marginal in the low levels (indirect inflow equatorward, and weak trade inflow southward). Aloft Northeasterly vertical wind shear is weak to moderate. Available NWP models generally forecast a southward movement and a slow deepening within the next 3 days, with gradual improving low level environmental conditions.

For the area southwest of Diego Garcia, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor to fair for the next 36 hours. Beyond, it becomes good.

For the area at the extreme East of the basin, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor to fair for the next 3 days.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (999 hPa) located at 10.9S 161.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved slightly in the last 24 hours. Deep convection has decreased in past 12 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Outflow good in all quadrants. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature are around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET an PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models move 05F southwestward then southward with further intensification.

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 15.6S 111.7E or 790 km northwest of Karratha and 750 km north northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Additional Information======================Convective organization associated with system 04U has greatly improved in the last 24 hours, likely due to Kelvin wave propagating through the area. However low level cloud lines are not particularly well organized and there are still low level squall lines emanating from the convection indicative of convective downdrafts driven by dry air in the mid levels. Hence it may take a little while to moisten the mid levels before the system can reach TC intensity.

Ocean heat content is high in the vicinity and shear is less than 20 knots. Upper divergence currently good to east and southeast. Conditions expected to remain favorable to very favorable over the next two days before the system moves over cooler water off the west coast. TPW is favorable, i.e. no dry air threatening the system. Expect development at D or D rate.

Cooler waters south of 20S should begin to weaken the system from early Monday.

Organization has improved slightly in the last 24 hours. Convection has increased near the system in the past 24 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. System lies under an upper diffluent region and in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 wrap, yields DT=2.0, PT and MET agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models have TD05 move southwest then south with further intensification.