Injury Update: Gary Sanchez (shoulder) underwent debridement surgery. The injury was to his non-throwing shoulder and the surgery comes with a three-month rehab. Sanchez is expected to be ready for Opening Day.

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With the exception of Jerry Dipoto doing Jerry Dipoto things by making a trade with the Rays, this part of the offseason is fairly quiet. Teams are still figuring out their plans for next year and are just starting to earnestly pursue their free agent targets. There’s also the slow creep of the awards season, which’ll give us something to talk about for, like, a day. As an aside, how silly is the concept of awards finalists when the results are already in? I get that MLB wants buzz around its awards, but shouldn’t there be some sort of re-vote if there are finalists, like some sort of run-off election? Anyway, the relative quiet also extends to the goings on of the Yankees, so I’ve got two main thoughts on this mid-November morning.

Stanton Stupidity

What is it about former MVP, right handed sluggers that gives Yankee fans and media brain worms? For years, we had purely academic debates about the benefits and “drawbacks” of Alex Rodriguez’s status as a Yankee, and now some of the same stuff is cropping up around Giancarlo Stanton. I’ve now heard not one but two radio hosts float the idea that Stanton isn’t a good fit here and that trading him to the Dodgers is the right idea. One of those hosts is the Yankees’ main play-by-play announcer and watches Stanton play every day, yet still feels like there’s not a fit. That is lunacy.

Yes, it’s my own fault for even listening to sports radio in the first place, but sometimes, I just can’t help myself. I’ve tried to reduce my hate-consuming and mostly have done so, but sports radio is just too hard to fully quit when you commute to work in a car each day.

Anyway, Giancarlo Stanton just had a season in which he hit 38 home runs and racked up a 127 wRC+. Is that latter number a bit off from his career norm? Yeah, sure, but it’s still pretty damn good. He also played in 158 games, including a stretch of over 80 straight, during which he was hurt and still carrying the team through a rough stretch without Aaron Judge or Gary Sanchez. If that doesn’t give the guy credibility with you, then that’s a you problem and almost nothing will satisfy you.

There are few right handed power hitters in baseball as good as or better than Stanton and the Yankees are lucky to have him, especially considering the minimal trade cost it took to acquire him. With an offseason of rest and the time to make adjustments to his new league, he’s going to come out firing in 2019 and is going to make at least two radio hosts look foolish for doubting his fit in New York.

(Presswire)

Bait and Switch

Plan 189. Plan 197. A rose by either name would smell as foul.

For the better part of a decade now, we’ve been hearing about the Yankees’ plan to get under the luxury tax threshold. At the outset–and in a vacuum–it’s not a bad idea. The Yankees had a lot of high-priced players nearing the end of their careers and needed to trim that and infuse themselves with young talent. They were certainly able to do that. What stood on the horizon was the other part of the justification for the richest team in baseball, in the sport’s biggest market, with one of the most lucrative TV contracts, etc., etc.: the future flexibility to splurge on free agents. They have that now. But they’ve just moved the goalposts.

The company line is now about not letting other teams use the Yankees’ luxury tax payments to compete against the Yankees. Okay, fine, I can sort of buy that, but it all amounts to less money for players and less satisfaction for fans. And, let’s be honest, most of those owners are just going to pocket the money anyway instead of reinvesting it on the field.

Many have written this off as posturing, part of the negotiation process, but I’m not sure just how much I buy that. We’re in 2018-2019 now. Everyone knows what everyone is doing. Everyone has a smart front office. I’m not sure there’s much benefit in the posturing when it comes to free agent negotiations like there would be in trade talks.

It’s not my money and the Yankees are free to spend–or not spend–however they please. But we’ve definitely ordered one meal and been given another, and there’s no waiter whom we can complain to to fix it. I hope I’m wrong and the Yankees do open the checkbook, but I’m not going to hold my breath anymore.

Brian Cashman, so the saying goes, is a ninja. The reputation is deserved: Yankee moves often materialize quickly and (from our perspective) out of nowhere. The organization as a whole rarely tips its hand with regard to its plans – an impressive feat considering the hyper-intense media environment in which it operates. That is why Cashman’s statements on Sonny Gray, which make it abundantly clear that the Yankees will trade him, have been so surprising.

Cashman’s candor began in earnest last August when he told Michael Kay that “if he winds up somewhere else pitching, he’s going to be pitching extremely well because the equipment is all there, the stuff is there, (but) consistently it’s not playing out right here.” Considering the fact that the Yankees were in the midst of a playoff push, this is about as honest as Cashman could be at the time without outright giving up on a member of the team.

This trend has continued since the end of the season. On October 12, just three days after the Yankees premature postseason exit, Cashman used his annual end-of-the-year press conference to once again make it clear that Gray is persona non grata. “To maximize his abilities,” Cashman said, “it would be more likely best [for him to be] somewhere else.”

As if that wasn’t straightforward enough, Cashman slammed Gray once again last week at the GM Meetings in Minneapolis. The Yankee GM told New York Post reporter Joel Sherman that the team is “going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx.”

Cashman’s uncharacteristic candor over Gray is certainly surprising, but there is another element of his statements worth exploring: the seeming belief that Sonny simply can’t make it work with the Yankees. Cashman made it a point in each of the above statements to emphasize that fact.

This suggests that the Yankees believe there is something to the statistics that show Sonny seemingly cannot pitch in Yankee Stadium beyond simple sample size noise. His home/away splits are downright remarkable, as Dominic mentioned in his excellent review of Gray’s season a few weeks ago. Gray pitched to a 3.17 ERA on the road and a 6.98 ERA at home – and those trends were present in 2017 too.

This also suggests that Cashman is right when he expresses confidence that the team will find a compatible suitor for Sonny this offseason. If the Yankees believe that there is something about the organization and Sonny that isn’t compatible, other teams very well may as well. And if that’s the case, teams will see a pitcher with a proven track record of success – including in big postseason matchups – who, for whatever reason, couldn’t make it work with the Yankees. His age, track record as a starting pitcher and success away from Yankee Stadium create a buy-low package that many teams won’t pass up.

Think about it. If Sonny Gray had been a Cleveland Indian this year and had an identical season, many of us would want the Yankees to go after him. Furthermore, Cashman wouldn’t be so blunt about his intentions if he didn’t know there were interested teams out there.

Because the bulk of our familiarity with Sonny comes during his Yankee tenure, it can be easy to forget the track record that made so many of us excited when the team traded for him in 2017. That underlying record hasn’t changed, even if his value is obviously lower than it was then.

This is not to say that the Yankees will receive a huge haul for Sonny as it is to say that it will not be as meager as we might think. I can’t predict what a trade will look like – and even if I did, it would suck – but I do not think the Yankees are in a position where they will just dump Gray for scraps. He still has considerable upside, and some team will take a chance on him. And if Brian Cashman is to be believed, he’ll probably realize that upside– just not in pinstripes.

The GM Meetings are over and now we have about a month to wait before all hell breaks loose at the Winter Meetings. If you haven’t checked it out yet, here’s the Official RAB 2018-19 Offseason Plan. I’m linking back to it here only because it took forever to write and I don’t want it to be forgotten about. Anyway, here’s some news to close out the week.

Steinbrenner on Today’s Game ballot

George Steinbrenner is on this year’s Today’s Game era committee ballot, the Hall of Fame announced. Harold Baines, Albert Belle, Joe Carter, Will Clark, Orel Hershiser, Davey Johnson, Charlie Manuel, Lou Piniella, and Lee Smith are also on the ballot. The 16-person committee will meet during the Winter Meetings next month and announce their Hall of Fame inductees (if any) on December 9th. Twelve votes are needed for induction.

“I think he is a Hall of Famer … (He) was very impactful. Both for this franchise and this industry and clearly a Hall of Famer from my viewpoint,” said Brian Cashman to Ken Davidoff earlier this week. This is the fourth time Steinbrenner is up for a Hall of Fame vote, with his most recent rejection coming in 2016. I think George belongs in the Hall of Fame and I can understand why some might be on the fence, but, ultimately, when you tell the story of baseball history, you can’t skip over Steinbrenner. Warts and all, he was a towering figure in the game.

Rule changes on hold until end of offseason

According to Ronald Blum, discussions regarding potential rule changes for the 2019 season have been put on hold, likely until right before the start of Spring Training. MLB and the MLBPA must agree on rule change proposals, however, if the union rejects an on-field rule change, the league can unilaterally implement the proposal in one year. Here are the rule changes that were discussed during the GM Meetings, via Blum and JonMorosi:

A limit on defensive shifts.

A 20-second pitch clock.

Restrictions regarding the use of technology during games.

Moving the trade deadline to mid-August and eliminating trade waivers.

Alterations to the 10-day DL because teams abuse the hell out of it.

The Astros were busted recording the other team’s dugout during the postseason, and there have been issues with teams using technology to steal signs for years now. Remember the Apple Watch thing with the Red Sox last year? Like that. MLB and the MLBPA want to stop that. Joel Sherman writes that, after the Astros incident, MLB put an official in each team’s replay room during the postseason, and did not allow teams to pipe their center field camera angle into their replay room. Those measures could become permanent. We’ll see.

As for everything else, I am a hard no on limiting shifts and a hard yes on a pitch clock. Pitchers take too damn long. Speed it up. Limiting shifts though? Nah. I am against anything that limits creativity. Did MLB ban breaking balls when they found out half the league couldn’t hit sliders? Nope. The strong will survive. Moving the trade deadline seems like a solution in search of a problem. What’s wrong with trade waivers? The dog days of summer can be a real grind. Trade waivers help keep things interesting. How much longer do we need to give teams to decide to buy or sell at the deadline? July 31st is fine.

Three Yankees on top Appy Prospects list

Baseball America (subs. req’d) continued their look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league with the rookie Appalachian League not too long ago. Rays SS Wander Franco claimed the top spot. Three Yankees made the list: OF Everson Pereira (No. 9), RHP Luis Medina (No. 13), and RHP Luis Gil (No. 19). RHP Luis Rijo, who went to the Twins in the Lance Lynn trade, is No. 14. I wrote about Pereira earlier this week. Here’s a snippet of Medina’s scouting report:

What keeps scouts interested with Medina is a fastball that sits in the 95-96 mph range and touches 100, with impressive plane and sink. He’s also got a 60-grade curveball and a changeup that could become a third plus pitch as well … Medina has a good arm action but simply struggles to repeat his delivery with any kind of consistency.

Medina is still only 19 and his numbers with rookie Pulaski this year weren’t good. He threw 36 innings with a 6.25 ERA (6.46 FIP) and high strikeout (25.5%) and walk (25.0%) rates. That’s 47 strikeouts and 46 walks in 36 innings. He also uncorked 12 wild pitches, so yeah. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Medina has some Dellin Betances in him. The stuff is elite. The control and delivery are far from it. The potential reward is very high but he is long-term project.

As for Gil, the Yankees acquired the 20-year-old from Minnesota in the Jake Cave trade, and he had a 1.37 ERA (3.28 FIP) with 35.8% strikeouts and 15.4% walks in 39.1 innings with Pulaski. “Gil’s best pitch is a fastball that sits in the mid 90s and touches triple digits, exploding in the zone late on hitters out of a loose arm action. He throws a fringe-average curveball in the low 80s and is still in the early stages of developing a changeup,” says the write-up. I’ve seen reports describe Gil’s curveball as above-average, so who knows. Gil is just another lower level hard-thrower in a system full of them.

According to Matt Eddy, the Yankees have re-signed infielder Gio Urshela to a minor league contract. Urshela has some MLB time and it’s safe to assume he’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee. He’s the second minor league signing the Yankees have made this week, joining Ryan Lavarnway.

Urshela, 27, came up with the Indians, then went to the Blue Jays in a cash trade this past May, then joined the Yankees in another cash trade in August. He played 27 games with Triple-A Scranton and hit .307/.340/.475 (129 wRC+) with two homers. Urshela is a career .225/.274/.315 (57 wRC+) hitter in 499 big league plate appearances, almost all with Cleveland.

In the field is where Urshela makes his money. He’s regarded as an outstanding gloveman at the hot corner — I thought he would get a September call-up to be Miguel Andujar’s defensive caddy before the Adeiny Hechavarria trade — and he can play shortstop if needed. You might remember this play (you also might remember his two errors in ALDS Game Four last year):

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I am surprised and I am glad the Yankees were able to re-sign Urshela. I thought he’d head to a team that offered an easier path to big league playing time. He’s stuck behind Andujar with the Yankees. As noted in my offseason plan, the RailRiders need a third baseman, and Urshela is as good as a Triple-A depth third baseman as you’ll find in minor league free agency.

The Yankees need to replace the injured Didi Gregorius, and while Urshela figures to get a chance to compete for the utility infielder’s job in Spring Training, I don’t think he’s a candidate to play shortstop on an everyday basis while Didi is out. Urshela, Ronald Torreyes, Tyler Wade, Thairo Estrada, and the recently claimed Hanser Alberto represent the Yankees’ infield depth at the moment.

One of the more exciting moments in mid-2017 was getting David Robertson back from the White Sox.

Ostensibly, Robertson could have been considered the third most important piece with Todd Frazier to shore up third base and Tommy Kahnle producing a better season to date. But there’s nothing like getting a welcomed old face back in the fold.

By the end of 2018, Robertson proved himself to be the best part exchanged in the deal. He followed up his rebound in 2017 with another strong season as he cemented himself in Aaron Boone’s circle of trust in relief.

Fireman Dave

Robertson’s numbers as a whole were slightly down in 2018, though they still trumped his 2016 performance. His ERA increased from 1.84 to 3.23 while his FIP went up from 2.57 to 2.97. Down below, you’ll see more about why his numbers decreased, but it was still a strong season for the reliable righty.

Robertson was used more as a traditional late-inning reliever to begin the year, not pitching before the seventh inning until mid-May. That didn’t preclude him from high leverage innings, just meant that Boone was going to others (Chad Green, for instance) in earlier fireman roles.

As time went on, Robertson found himself in different spots, particularly after the Yankees added Zach Britton. Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman were cemented as the eighth and ninth inning guys, giving Robertson the opportunity to put out earlier fires.

The right-hander finished the year with 33 shutdowns and 11 meltdowns, the latter a career-worst, though just by a hair. He produced a Win Probability Added of 1.54 for the season.

Trending Up, Trending Down

A funny thing happened in Robertson’s age-33 season: His velocity actually increased! He averaged 92.3 mph on his heater and 83.8 mph on his curveball. that was his hardest fastball since 2011 and his hardest curveball ever.

Despite his increased velocity and reliance on his curveball (more on that later), Robertson saw an increase in contact against him. However, a lot of it on out-of-the-zone pitches. That may have been simply due to hitters chasing his curve. Thanks to the increased contact, he didn’t get as many swings and misses out of the zone, perhaps due to hitters sitting off-speed.

As a whole, Robertson wasn’t quite as dominant in 2018, which comes down to his fundamentals. His prodigious strikeout rate fell by 6.4 percent to 32.2 percent (still great!) while his walk rate went up 0.5 percent. He allowed one more home run. His 9.2 percent walk rate was his second-highest since 2011.

However, some of the 2017 performance had been smoke and mirrors. He posted a career-best 95 percent strand rate in his half season with the Yankees and that fell precipitously to 67.5 in 2018. Regardless, Robertson still posted strong numbers, maintaining an important role in the Bombers’ bullpen.

Experimentation and Adaptation

Like any veteran pitcher, Robertson has had to change over the years. Early on, it was adding a cutter to his mix skew his fastball-curveball approach. Now, he’s moved with baseball trends and thrown the fewest percentage of fastballs in career. He throws his heater (almost exclusively a cutter) just 42.5 percent of the time, down 5.9 percent from a year ago and 38.4 percent from its peak six seasons ago. Additionally, he’s worked in two-seamers and changed everything about how he pitched just a few seasons ago.

With fewer fastballs has come an increased reliance on his curveball. He throws the primary breaking pitch 47.4 percent of the time, eclipsing his fastball for the first time in his career. This isn’t something novel in that the rest of the league have encourage their pitchers to throw their best pitches more often.

Despite increased velocity, his fastball was less effective in 2018, producing a negative pitch value for just the second time (2016). On the other hand, his curveball was nearly or even more effective, depending on the source. He added some differentiation with his slider that he started experimenting with the last few years, tossing the harder breaking ball 14.4 percent of the time with good results.

One figures we’ll see more tinkering from Robertson as he gets older and utilizes a long career’s worth of wisdom in getting hitters out as his stuff lessens.

Postseason

I’ll drink to David Robertson in the playoffs. (Getty Images)

In the 2017 postseason, Robertson was used in all of the Yankees’ most important situations. He got 10 key outs in the Wild Card Game. He pitched with the Yankees leading by just one in three ALDS appearances. He helped keep the Yankees in striking distance in ALCS Game 2 and was asked to shut down Houston rallies in Games 4 and 6.

This season was decidedly different. Robertson threw 3 2/3 scoreless innings with one walk and seven strikeouts, allowing no hits in the postseason. In his one inning in the Wild Card Game, he allowed two line drives but escaped unscathed.

However, there wasn’t really a high-leverage spot to give him. Dellin Betances usurped him as the most-trusted reliever in high leverage spots in the WCG and ALDS Game 2. Beyond those spots, Robertson was forced to pitch with the Yankees trailing. Not his fault nor should it be a mark against him. Circumstances made it so the Yankees couldn’t insert their best relievers in spots to win games.

(P.S. The photo above isn’t even close to the best David Robertson alcohol photo. Trust me.)

What’s Next?

Robertson’s four-year, $46 million deal he signed with the White Sox has lapsed and he is now a free agent. He was ineligible for a qualifying offer, having received one from the Yankees in 2014.

The 33-year-old reliever has made the odd move of representing himself in free agency, a decision he explained to MLB Trade Rumors. He said it had nothing to do with his agents and more about knowing himself better than anyone else:

“Being a guy that’s hung around long enough to know what I can offer a team and what I would like in return, I feel I’m best suited to have all the discussions necessary to figure out my next contract.”

It makes too much sense for Robertson to be back in pinstripes for the 2019 campaign. He’s proven to be one of the few relievers in baseball that stays at or near an elite level for years on end and he should get multiple years in a free agent deal. The Yankees, meanwhile, will need to bring back or add a reliever with both Robertson and Britton hitting the open market.