Giant Bomb News

Blu-ray or Bust?

Blu-ray has won the battle, but has it won the war?

Is it the future yet? Flying cars, laser swords, starships burning off the shoulder of Orion--we all have different metrics for gauging that special moment when one can stand up and quietly whisper "we have arrived." For some, the ability to order Domino's pizza from a Wii was that moment. For me, that moment will arrive when we no longer have to think about where we are going to safely store our ever increasing digital belongings. While my future probably falls somewhere between Warp 9 and Hoverboards, it seems like I'm not the only one watching and waiting.

“There’s a generation of kids being born today and probably already alive who I’m pretty confident will never buy a physical media product. They will never buy a DVD, they will never buy a CD, and they will never buy a game in a box.”

So says Atari president and former Sony exec, Phil Harrison, speaking to Edge Magazine. While Atari may think an online distribution model can serve all of its delivery needs, should we all start tearing down our bookshelves and burning our binders full of discs?

We don't even have to hire new designers! Recently, in our office, we had a pretty lengthy discussion about the future of game consoles and what delivery mechanisms they would adopt for their games. With Sony essentially winning the optical media war with its 50GB Blu-ray discs, it raises some interesting choices for their competitors. Will Microsoft license Blu-ray drives from Sony for its next console? While the money Microsoft and others would spend to use Blu-ray technology wouldn't necessarily go directly into the Playstation 3 coffers, it certainly wouldn't be hurting Sony. Developers are already starting feel the pinch when it comes to developing for both Blu-ray and DVD. id Software's John Carmack has repeatedly expressedconcern that sacrifices in quality will have to be made to fit their upcoming title, Rage, onto two DVDs for release on the Xbox 360. While the decision to refrain from pressing the game to more DVDs seems to be a financial one and based on royalty fees, it's certainly clear that Blu-ray will offer the most options for developers as we move forward.

Carmack is not alone in his Rage issues, but some are even concerned that 50GB Blu-ray discs can't contain their pure, uncompromising vision. We probably all recall Hideo Kojima saying that Metal Gear Solid 4 could have looked better if the team didn't have to compress so many of the elements to fit on one Blu-ray disc. Pioneer has apparently heard his pleas, and while the state of MGS5 is anyone's guess, there is apparently a 400GB Blu-ray disc in development that would be readable by current Blu-ray players. Now, this doesn't mean we should expect 400GB PlayStation 3 games in the near future, but it does mean that the world is moving forward with Blu-ray and that has to mean more than a few smiles for one particular company.

Sony seems to be in a strong position if you consider Blu-ray to be the future of media distribution, but in the words of everyone's favorite minature midichlorian master, there is another. Steve Jobs, the CEO of Apple, recently addressed the absence of Blu-ray drives in upcoming Macs with the following:

"Blu-ray is just a bag of hurt...the licensing of the tech is so complex, we're waiting till things settle down and Blu-ray takes off in the marketplace."

It's an interesting take, considering that Apple currently offers HD content through iTunes. At the same time, Steam is continuing to push forward, and be effective, with full installs of new games on the PC. Microsoft has been very vocal about its online distribution of games and HD video content, as well. With the ability to do complete game installs onto your hard drive, it seems like the only technological hurdle for online distribution of console games is bandwidth. Internet service providers are definitely starting to feel the crunch with more and more information being traded across their systems, and the worry is that the infrastructure for the rapid transfer of gigs of information just isn't there. A fully adopted system for these games would have other obstacles as well. We're seeing a lot of that now with digital rights management and being able to transfer and redownload copies of products you've already bought. Also, don't think the GameStops and Best Buys of the world are going to quietly sit while a huge portion of their retail sales vanish.

Nobody averted Thermonuclear War from a Blu-ray... There's really no reason to think Microsoft is going to stop offering an all-in-one media system in the near future. Like Microsoft, Sony takes a loss on each console it actually sells, and hopes to make a profit on software sales and licensing. If the only practical means of delivering competitive content in the next round of consoles is through Blu-ray, will Sony really need to manufacture its own system, or can they get fat off the technology licensing fees? There are fewer and fewer exclusives for each particular system, so the dividing lines are becoming more and more blurred. Realistically, it's more likely that the division of Sony that handles Blu-ray will be happy to get its technology into Microsoft's next system and the separate portion of Sony handling the PlayStation will continue to focus on making a competitive product. As much as we imagine Microsoft and Sony as fierce competitors, they are all partners in the business of making money. At the same time, we were once trading text files on floppies, music on CDs and movies on DVDs, but all of those things have migrated to some form of successful online distribution and it's unlikely games won't follow.
Vinny Caravella on Google+

Is it the future yet? Flying cars, laser swords, starships burning off the shoulder of Orion--we all have different metrics for gauging that special moment when one can stand up and quietly whisper "we have arrived." For some, the ability to order Domino's pizza from a Wii was that moment. For me, that moment will arrive when we no longer have to think about where we are going to safely store our ever increasing digital belongings. While my future probably falls somewhere between Warp 9 and Hoverboards, it seems like I'm not the only one watching and waiting.

“There’s a generation of kids being born today and probably already alive who I’m pretty confident will never buy a physical media product. They will never buy a DVD, they will never buy a CD, and they will never buy a game in a box.”

So says Atari president and former Sony exec, Phil Harrison, speaking to Edge Magazine. While Atari may think an online distribution model can serve all of its delivery needs, should we all start tearing down our bookshelves and burning our binders full of discs?

We don't even have to hire new designers! Recently, in our office, we had a pretty lengthy discussion about the future of game consoles and what delivery mechanisms they would adopt for their games. With Sony essentially winning the optical media war with its 50GB Blu-ray discs, it raises some interesting choices for their competitors. Will Microsoft license Blu-ray drives from Sony for its next console? While the money Microsoft and others would spend to use Blu-ray technology wouldn't necessarily go directly into the Playstation 3 coffers, it certainly wouldn't be hurting Sony. Developers are already starting feel the pinch when it comes to developing for both Blu-ray and DVD. id Software's John Carmack has repeatedly expressedconcern that sacrifices in quality will have to be made to fit their upcoming title, Rage, onto two DVDs for release on the Xbox 360. While the decision to refrain from pressing the game to more DVDs seems to be a financial one and based on royalty fees, it's certainly clear that Blu-ray will offer the most options for developers as we move forward.

Carmack is not alone in his Rage issues, but some are even concerned that 50GB Blu-ray discs can't contain their pure, uncompromising vision. We probably all recall Hideo Kojima saying that Metal Gear Solid 4 could have looked better if the team didn't have to compress so many of the elements to fit on one Blu-ray disc. Pioneer has apparently heard his pleas, and while the state of MGS5 is anyone's guess, there is apparently a 400GB Blu-ray disc in development that would be readable by current Blu-ray players. Now, this doesn't mean we should expect 400GB PlayStation 3 games in the near future, but it does mean that the world is moving forward with Blu-ray and that has to mean more than a few smiles for one particular company.

Sony seems to be in a strong position if you consider Blu-ray to be the future of media distribution, but in the words of everyone's favorite minature midichlorian master, there is another. Steve Jobs, the CEO of Apple, recently addressed the absence of Blu-ray drives in upcoming Macs with the following:

"Blu-ray is just a bag of hurt...the licensing of the tech is so complex, we're waiting till things settle down and Blu-ray takes off in the marketplace."

It's an interesting take, considering that Apple currently offers HD content through iTunes. At the same time, Steam is continuing to push forward, and be effective, with full installs of new games on the PC. Microsoft has been very vocal about its online distribution of games and HD video content, as well. With the ability to do complete game installs onto your hard drive, it seems like the only technological hurdle for online distribution of console games is bandwidth. Internet service providers are definitely starting to feel the crunch with more and more information being traded across their systems, and the worry is that the infrastructure for the rapid transfer of gigs of information just isn't there. A fully adopted system for these games would have other obstacles as well. We're seeing a lot of that now with digital rights management and being able to transfer and redownload copies of products you've already bought. Also, don't think the GameStops and Best Buys of the world are going to quietly sit while a huge portion of their retail sales vanish.

Nobody averted Thermonuclear War from a Blu-ray... There's really no reason to think Microsoft is going to stop offering an all-in-one media system in the near future. Like Microsoft, Sony takes a loss on each console it actually sells, and hopes to make a profit on software sales and licensing. If the only practical means of delivering competitive content in the next round of consoles is through Blu-ray, will Sony really need to manufacture its own system, or can they get fat off the technology licensing fees? There are fewer and fewer exclusives for each particular system, so the dividing lines are becoming more and more blurred. Realistically, it's more likely that the division of Sony that handles Blu-ray will be happy to get its technology into Microsoft's next system and the separate portion of Sony handling the PlayStation will continue to focus on making a competitive product. As much as we imagine Microsoft and Sony as fierce competitors, they are all partners in the business of making money. At the same time, we were once trading text files on floppies, music on CDs and movies on DVDs, but all of those things have migrated to some form of successful online distribution and it's unlikely games won't follow.

To be honest, the idea of no longer having a physical media frightens me. I may be clinging to much to materialism, but the idea of having something that is just data... I don't know, it still doesn't sound good to me, but maybe I'm living in the past.

I'm not so sure if the day when there'll no longer be physical medias, but if this day does indeed come, I don't believe it'll happen as wuick as some people make it to be.

considering newspapers are still popular i don't think phiscal media storage will go away any time soon. People just enjoy holding phisical items. I hate downloading games cuz i just like have a box and holding it. Going to the store to buy a new game is so much more exciting then sitting in a chair waiting for a download to finish.

The physical limitations of our infrastructure shall not be a problem! Obama will make a gigantic government works project to bring state of the art fiberoptics to every nook and cranny of the country! And the WORLD!!!!

This new Pioneer tech... Pioneer have done everything possible in press releases to specify that this is NOT BD tech, but it is playable on existing BD players. Just wanted to point that out to you :) Otherwise, an interesting and informed summary of the current state of affairs.

I still rather have the boxed copy of a game over a digital download anyday. I think all of the broadband providers in the UK have a cap. Even if it is said to be unlimited they still say "subject to our fair use policy". So i dont really want to be downloading 5 gigabyte games every couple of weeks. I would rather have the physical box get delivered right to my door. And when i have the disc i can do whatever the hell i want with it. Give it to someone else to play or sell it. Although i tend to keep all of my games.

id much rather have what i own in phiysical form. i want to hold it and caress it. even throw it against the wall if i wanted to. digital things is alright for something but id much rather have things in physical form.

Very thoughtful and I totally agree. I have shunned, SHUNNED Blueray and am missing nothing, who needs HD disks when I can download them already?! It may be 15-20 years, but direct downloads of games is the way we are all heading, and I'm all for it!

The people without available broadband connectivity that think there are too many like themselves for company's to ignore are wrong. Those areas are ignored by broadband providers because there are so few potential customers in them. And so are not a major concern. Distribution and physical media is a major expense in retail, if you eliminate it: everyone wins. I've liked Vinny for a while now. Didn't really know who he was before Giantbomb, but look forward to more of his insights. He seems to be a man of sentiments similar to my own.

Also just think about the storage logistics of it. How many games do you own? If you were to download all of them they would not fit on your harddrive, unless you had a modded 360 and then you couldn't access Xbox Live anyway!

I like the idea of online distribution of games in theory, but as others mentioned, there are some things about it that worry me. Firstly, i'm a big fan of case/box art, manuals, etc. There is just something about it that i'm very fond of. My "new game ritual" is sitting down, and cracking open the manual on a comfy chair, or my toilet... So if everything goes the way of downloadable media, then i'll lose out on that. I won't actually own anything. Just the right to download it, and play it.

Then comes the problem of backing up the game, and piracy. I don't want a game i fork out 60 bucks on to only be available through an online outlet. What if that outlet goes out of business? What if they go bankrupt and shut down their downloading service? What happens to your games then? There has to be a way to download it, and back it up on a hard drive...But then what stops people from pirating it somehow? And how will companies try to fight that? Will they do something like Spore, and make it so that you can only install it on 2-3 other consoles? Or be even more stringent, and make it so that you can't put it on another console period? If they do that, then how do i take the game to a friends house, and play it with him?

What if the hard drive i have the games installed on gets fried somehow, and the online outlet i received it from has gone out of business? For some reason, CD's seems a lot more durable and easier to keep safe then a HD. After all, i can throw CD's in a case, and tuck it safely away somewhere. A hard drive is a lot more fragile, and takes a lot more care, and is a lot more expensive then CD's. With CD's, i can also make multiple backups if i so choose. I can't really do that with HD's, unless i want to buy multiple hard drives in order to backup my game on several different ones for safety purposes, and my own peace of mind.

I dunno. Those are just some of my concerns. I'm sure there are ways around most of what i mentioned. I'm sure there are people out there that can come up with some type of acceptable solution. Then again, i never thought we'd see things like what Spore and other games are doing. Only letting you install the game a certain number of times.

No thanks, I don't need more companies dictating to me how I can use the product I pay for. People think SecuROM is bad, wait until their is no viable alternative for aquisition. The main beneficiaries of digital distribution are companies who seek an unprecedented degree of control over their customers and those (like Microsoft) that have little hardware presence.

Besides, the kind of resources required to supply the constant bandwidth load to maintain such an infrastructure, like full-blown digital distirbution, greatly outpace that of standard physical manufacturing. Why would I want to spend hours downloading 50GB's when I can walk down the street or have an online retailer like Amazon mail it to me for free? Maybe people in the US can get hundreds of GB of unthrottled bandwidth, but most people can't.

Awesome read.

"There is just something about it that i'm very fond of. My "new game ritual" is sitting down, and cracking open the manual on a comfy chair, or my toilet..."

MAST says: "i'm a big fan of case/box art, manuals, etc. There is just something about it that i'm very fond of."

Same here. And it makes me worried the direction media has been going. So this is the future then? I kin it to convenience stores where at 3 in the morning you could go down there and pick up that tasty but horribly unhealthy burrito, at 3 times the cost. The bigger worry I have is that it creates a certain devide between economic classes of gamers. Those who have the extra bucks can think nothing of the cost to download such a throw awayable copy of the game or its relentless DLCs, while those who have to be a little more thrifty will much rather have that solid copy of a disk and have to shy on any extra content. This last generation of consoles and their cost alone has already been starting to divide gamers in economic classes, and if this trend keeps going this way, only rich kids are going to be the only ones playing games, flaunting about how cool their GTAV is so awesome and how you cant play it because your parents don't make enough money.

Direct to Drive Games and Movies are good for convenience when you just don't feel like being bother with purchasing a disk. I mean most of us on this site or play games rather PC or Console have a semi decent internet connection but it is the fact that sometimes stuff happens. I will never forget purchasing an episode of Enterprise in HD on my Xbox 360 thru the Video Store.

Then one day my internet went offline for a couple of hours just in time for me to find out that since my 360 is not the same one ( other one RROD on Me) I purchased I cannot view any of my content. It is stuff like that scarys people about digtal downloads. As previous posters said I just perfer having that physical media in my hand with an instructions booklet. Then reading that booklet while taking a dump.

As for Blu-Ray it is not a bust it just a combination of how many people have purchased an HD TV or use there PC Monitor to game on. Plus you have the cost of BD which is about 30 bucks and needs to get to that sweet spot of 20 bucks. Then there is the PS3 to add into the mix. I know I can say that when I bought my PS3 i was only getting it to play games but in the end I really bought it because it can do more than just play games thanks to the BD Drive. Same thing happened when the PS2 came out with its DVD drive.

me, and probably many others, prefer to own something physical that we can see, touch, and sometimes smell, god i love the smell of a new video game box...anyway, i guess we won't see a full-on digital distribution until atleast another 5 or something years. as of now, im happy to go to a store and pick up a game that i've been excited about rather than downloading it on a console or computer because whenever i walk into a best-buy or walmart to pick up a game, I JUST GET SO EXCITED!!!!!!!

Yes digital distribution is all well and good but something that alot of people forget is that most of those movies you can get now are streamed not downloaded. There's nothing to keep on your hard drives. Also the quality of your movie stream is compeletely dependent on you connection speed. Sony offers a buy option but that still leaves the chance of a corrupt hard drive. While its a fantastic idea and it will happen eventually the current state of the infrastructure just won't handle everyone in the US much less the world deciding they want to watch a movie tonight.

Digital distribution is great and all but eventually, you just run out of space to put things. Imagine if you downloaded every single Xbox 360 or PS3 game that you own. I don't know about you but I would need a hard drive way over 120GB. Hell, it would probably be well over 200GB. Maybe even more. And look at the Wii. The only way I can store more content on my Wii is to go out and buy SD cards. Until console developers can figure out a way to store massive amounts of data, digital distribution can't take over the industry.

I do not believe physical media is going to go away for multiple reasons. 1- People enjoy collecting things and shopping for physical stuff in stores, so they would not want to replace that with something intangible. 2- There has been many comparisons to MP3's on iTunes but I think the comparison there is very flawed. In Music, a CD usually has 2 or 3 hits and the rest of the songs are not as good. People would rather buy those 3 songs and pay 3 dollars than buy the whole CD for 10+ dollars. What is it going to be like in games? Give me chapter 3 of this game for 2 dollars, but not chapter 2? Most games are not built like that. Also unless they lower the price of downloadable games much lower than the price of physical media, why should anyone bother? 3- Big corporations: Like Vinny mentioned Gamestop and Best buy, even walmart and Target will not sit there idly losing all that extra cach flow coming in from games.

Blu-ray may be the future but go to Walmart, Target, Bestbuy etc. and take a look at the movie section. The Blu-ray section is multiple times smaller than ordinary DVD movies. I don't thin kBlu-ray will replace DVDs anytime soon. Maybe within the next ten years we may see more companies adopting the Blu-ray format. Until then though, I wouldn't hold my breath. Regarding physical media compared to downloadable games, I like having my dvd with it's box and manual. Companies are pretty much trying to save money on the physical media, box, and manual by offering their games online for the same price. No thanks. Now, if the price would go down due to lack of box, manual, dvd etc., then we're talking. Then again, not everyone has high speed internet and I'll be damned if I'm going to wait hours just to get a game when I can drive 15 minutes down the road and buy it. Plus I get some fresh air too!

I don't think that Microsoft has much choice but to include a Blu-ray Disc drive in the next Xbox.

Both Microsoft and Sony have said that digital distribution is the future, and have hinted that all content on their future game consoles will be distributed digitally, but it won't be feasible in time for the PlayStation 4 and Xbox 540. Current Internet connections are neither fast nor reliable enough for people to sit through multi-gigabyte downloads without losing their patience.

In addition, consumers have to get comfortable with the concept of not needing a physical copy of something relatively expensive to own it. Steam and its competitors are niche. For most people, seeing no software in stores means that no software exists.

Microsoft cannot stick with DVD for the next Xbox. Game developers are pushing the limits of how much content can fit on a single DVD-ROM, and sometimes this means excessive data compression, causing long loading times and/or games that don't look or sound as good as they should. The next Xbox is sure to be more powerful than the 360, meaning that games will take up more space than they do now. DVD-ROM will no longer be feasible and downloads or streaming will not yet be feasible, so Microsoft will be forced to include a Blu-ray Disc drive in its next game console. Unless focus groups show that consumers don't mind switching between five discs to play a video game and Microsoft significantly lowers per-disc licensing fees.

And Sony is certain to continue using Blu-ray Disc with the PlayStation 4.

So Blu-ray Discs will be with us for at least several more years.

As for Steve Jobs, while I don't doubt that Blu-ray Disc licensing is "a bag of hurt," be aware that he has ulterior motives. Jobs, CEO of Apple, would prefer that you download your movies from the iTunes Store or through your Apple TV box than buy them on Blu-ray Discs. (And years ago, Apple dragged its feet on adding USB 2.0 to its computers and iPods, probably because it wanted its competing FireWire technology to "win.")

an option not an answer, at least not for quite a long time. There are alot of things that need to change with isp's, bandwidth, and overall consumer coverage to see a complete turnover. Blurays at the moment are very convenient and dependable. It is foolish to "shun" BD media at this point in time, dont sit there and think of it in your micro-perspective, the market works on a macro field and things arent ready yet.

Movie wise it is not much of a victory, TV series wise it is pretty good since you don't need 5 DVD's anymore, it all fits in one. And Videogame wise it is TEH victory! 15 GB OF SOUND EFFECTS in MGS4 would only fit in a blu-ray disc, and rage will come out in 2 DVD's and if MGS4 is to be ported it will be ported in 5 diferent DVD's.. Not TEH update to the future but a good update to DVD technology.

I would not be overly surprised to see carts come back. Both the density and transfer speeds of flash storage have been increasing rapidly, in the 2010-2011 timeframe having a 50-100GB flash based mechanism (like a USB stick) that is at least as fast as a blu-ray xfer speed seems pretty much a given. I think about the only thing that would stop this is the physcial manufacturing cost, jumping from $2-3 to make a DVD to $10 for a flash tech is a hard pill for publishers to swallow though perhaps read-only flash is much cheaper...

yeah, digital distribution sounds great, well until you have a complete loss of all your info and data due to a virus or malfunction of some sort and then what will you have??? A WHOLE LOT OF NOTHIN.... for now at least, I will stick with my physical items.

I'm a dude who's preferred music media is vinyl records (Hey, they still make em by the way) so I don't know if I could ever fully embrace media being distributed exclusively by digital means.Admittedly I am a fan of Steam however because I like the fact that once you purchase something it is attached to your account permanently and you can download it over and over again through the years as needed, whereas EA's distribution method is total bullshit. (EADM)You only have 6 months from the date of purchase to download your digital media at will after that if you lose it too bad its gone. If you want to be able to have access to your digital purchase's after 6 months it costs extra and is only an option at the original time of purchase. Then that is only good for an extra 2 years or something like that of your purchase date.

MS should buy the HD-DVD format for dirt cheap, make it the new proprietary 360 disc format, and that will give them the size they need plus tons of spare parts from the halted production of HD-DVD machines. Not being able to watch Bluray movies on the 360 is not a deal breaker, and it will still be able to play existing DVDs. It will also be a new way to stop piracy, since the HD-DVD format has no consumer burners like Bluray does.

This is in contrast to adopting Bluray in a future box, either way it means getting a new console, but this way it keeps Sony left in it's own personal Hell, and MS able to not pay Sony for a new format.

The alternative is full DLC, but we're just not there yet in terms of bandwidth and users with high-speed connections. Yes folks, there are still quite a few people with 360s and PS3s that don't have broadband, until that number is far lower than those that do, we won't see disc-free games in any large amount.