DFS: Di Bari | Wells Fargo Championship Picks

The PGA Tour stops in Charlotte, North Carolina this week for the Wells Fargo Championship hosted by The Quail Hollow Club. It’s a very difficult par-71 coming in somewhere around 7,500 yards (the course underwent a slight redesign, so I’m not being lazy, I can’t find two sites with the exact same number anywhere). A quick look at the weather looks like it won’t be an issue. There is a small chance of rain on Sunday, and it may be windy on Friday morning for the early groups, but aside from that, it looks like smooth sailing all weekend. Of course, the weather is always changing, so be sure to check for the most up-to-date forecast before you set your lineups. Stats that I’ll be focusing on this week will be: Driving Distance, Par 5 scoring, Shots Gained: Approach (SG:APP) and Shots Gained: Off the TEE (SG:OTT). To a lesser extent I’ll also be looking at Shots Gained: Approach the Green (SG:ATG). Be sure to check out Matt Jones’ earlier course preview and key stats article for this week too.

PICKS

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000)
Fleetwood hasn’t missed a cut yet this season and shows up in many of my key stats. He’s 29th in driving distance, 26th in par 5 scoring, 10th in SG:ATG, and 3rd in SG:OTT. He’s got great recent form and checks most of the boxes on what I think is important here, he’s a must play this week.

Alex Noren ($8,100)
Similar to Fleetwood, but priced $900 cheaper Noren checks all of the boxes for me here. He had decent form on the year until we last saw him when he missed the cut at the Masters and he screwed many people. On the plus side, that might keep his ownership numbers down. He’s averaging more than 300 yards off the tee and ranks 6th in par-5 scoring. He’s sitting 10th in SG:APP and 37th in SG:OTT too.

Trey Mullinax ($6,800)
Mullinax has two top-10s in his last four starts including a T2 at the Valero Texas Open 2 weeks ago. On a bombers’ course, Mullinax is a not-so-sneaky pick as the longest driver on tour at the moment averaging over 318 yards driving. He’s also 17th in scoring on par 5s and is 27th in SG:OTT. I think he’s being grossly overlooked in this strong field and is extremely mispriced this weekend too.

Phil Mickelson ($9,200)
Course history? Yes, please. In Phil’s last 12 times playing here, he’s never missed a cut and has ten top-12s and six top-5s. He is also 7th in par-5 scoring and 5th in SG:APP, none of the key stats really matter because Mickelson loves this track and the historical results prove it.

Xander Schauffele ($7,400)
His recent form is a little lacking, but X still hasn’t missed a cut since January. He is also 58th in driving distance, smashing it just a hair under 300 yards. He’s 65th in par-5 scoring and is 15th in SG:OTT and 61st in SG:APP. He has some name recognition, so he might be a little higher owned than you’d prefer, but I like his chances this week.

Bryson DeChambeau ($8,000)
DeChambeau has been having a great year on tour so far. He’s only missed one cut this year and has 4 top 10s, including a 2nd and 3rd in his last three starts. He’s 2nd in scoring on par-5s, and 14th in SG:OTT. He’s also long, coming in at 35th in driving distance and is 21st in SG:APP as well. It’s setting up nicely for DeChambeau as he hits several of my key stats and it’s hard to argue with his recent form either.

FADES:

Brooks Koepka ($8,600)
He returned from a wrist injury last week and missed the cut in the team event. I’m not comfortable paying that price for a player we haven’t seen full time since January.