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Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Because of the time lag the issuance of official arrival statistics, the figures for the month of November were only in hand during the first week of January 2016. Expect the year-end figure for 2015 in early February.

November 2015 arrival figures do, however, provide a fairly telling look at how Bali will end the year in terms of foreign tourist arrivals.

With 272,796 foreign tourist arrivals in November 2015, November holds the distinction - together with August, of being the second month in 2015 in which month-on-month arrivals declined in comparison to 2014.

November arrivals declined 7.9% as compared to the same month one year before, suffering, as did August, from cancelled flights caused by volcanic eruptions.

Year-on-year through the end of November 2015 total foreign arrivals hit 3,633,056 travelers, a 6.27% increase over the first eleven months of 2014.

It now appears highly probable that Bali will end 2015 a few thousands visitors short of the 4 million mark.

Meanwhile, tourism officials in Bali are projecting 4.2 million foreign visitors in 2016, an increase of some 5%.

Highlights from Major Source MarketsAustralia - Australian arrivals declined 31.1% in November as compared to November one year before and are down 1.69% for the first 11 months of the year.

A weak Australian dollar, volcanic uncertainty and a very inopportune pronouncement by the head of immigration at Bali’s airport have all negatively impacted Australian arrivals to Bali. A statement in October by an immigration officer saying Australians could obtain no more than two visas-on-arrivals in a single 12 month period was quickly reconsidered and hastily withdrawn ten days after its utterance. But, sadly, the damage had been done and many Australians cancelled plans for a Bali holiday after being bullied with the threat of instant deportation. In the absence of a media offensive by immigration and tourism authorities to set the matter straight, the lingering damage of that announcement continues to be felt.

In partial mitigation, President Widodo has mentioned Australia as included among the next batch of countries to be eligible for visa-free visits to Indonesia. When, however, Australians and others will actually begin enjoying visa-free visits remain in doubt as the enabling legislation has yet to be promulgated.

Whether a liberalized visa-free policy for Australians visiting Indonesia will reverse the current decline remains to be seen.

China – Month on month, PRC arrivals increased 38.1% in November and are up 18.93% for the first 11 months of 2015. Despite growing economic uncertainty in Mainland China, expect Chinese numbers to Bali to grow because of Bali’s relative affordability, close proximity and greater air access.

Japan – Japanese arrivals continue to improve, up 6.21% for January-November 2015 over the same period on year before. Japan arrivals in 2015 regained nearly five years of lost ground.

Up and Comers – The following markets have turned in strong performances in 2015, improving over the first 11 months of the year 2015: U.K. (28.73%), USA (18.71%), India (30.16%), The Netherlands (13.10%), Canada (19.84%), New Zealand (13.10%) and Switzerland (27.13%).

On the Decline – The following markets lead among the poor performers for Bali during the first 11 months of 2015: Malaysia (-14.53%), Singapore (-18.92%), and Russia (-31.96%).