U.S. nuke spotters sent to China before gamesSecret team acts on attack fears

Bill Gertz Friday, June 20, 2008

EXCLUSIVE:

The Bush administration has dispatched a secret team of nuclear specialists to China in response to Chinese concerns that terrorists may attempt to set off a radiological bomb during the Beijing Summer Olympics, The Washington Times has learned.

The Nuclear Emergency Support Team (NEST) was sent on Chinese intelligence indicating that any attack likely would involve a radiological device - a conventional explosive laced with radioactive material to enhance its effect - said Bush administration officials familiar with the security efforts.

The NEST deployment was disclosed as China announced this week that it is conducting a citywide drill in Beijing to test responses for a radiological bomb attack. It could not be learned whether the NEST unit will participate in the drill.

The deployment to China is unusual. NEST units usually deploy to areas in the United States and use highly classified equipment and techniques.

The team is part of the Energy Department's National Nuclear Security Administration and was ordered to Beijing as part of U.S.-China security cooperation, the Bush administration officials said.

Asked about the dispatch of the nuclear detection team, an Energy Department spokesman declined to comment, noting that NEST deployments are not announced.

Other officials familiar with the NEST said the team is made up of nuclear weapons scientists and technicians, many from Energy Department nuclear laboratories, who will provide specialized technical expertise in Beijing before the Aug. 8-24 games.

Team members will be outfitted with special nuclear detection gear and will operate in secret, the officials said.

A fact sheet from the Energy Department states that the NEST deals "with the technical aspects of nuclear or radiological terrorism."

The groups conduct search operations. If radiation is detected, they will perform an identification of nuclear materials, diagnostics and assessments of nuclear devices and bomb dismantling.

"Response teams vary in size from a five-person technical advisory team to a tailored deployment of dozens searchers and scientists who can locate and then conduct or support technical operations on a suspected nuclear device," the fact sheet states.

The exact size of the NEST being sent to Beijing could not be learned, but the officials said it will include about 10 people.

The teams use compact nuclear detection gear hidden in briefcases, knapsacks or portable coolers. They travel in vans searching for radiation sources, often at night to avoid public scrutiny.

Under the Atomic Energy Act, the State Department is the lead federal agency for deploying the team, which will work with FBI agents in Beijing.

Henry Sokolski, director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, said the danger of nuclear terrorism is growing and the NEST teams are limited in dealing with the threat.

"We are entering a brave new world where nuclear energy for peaceful purposes literally is providing the fuel for terror," Mr. Sokolski said. "Against this new security sore, NEST teams should be seen as a Band-Aid."

The International Atomic Energy Agency stated in a staff report May 23 that the agency and China are working behind the scenes to "bolster the country's security and minimize threats."

"We have been working with the Chinese authorities over the last 18 months to add a radiological dimension to their existing security plans so that security for the Olympics is as comprehensive as possible," Anita Nilsson, director of the IAEA's Office of Nuclear Security, was quoted as saying in the report.

The IAEA is working to integrate planning for a radiological attack into existing security efforts for police, intelligence agencies and bomb squads. The IAEA is working with Chinese authorities on radiation detection, physical protection and emergency response.

"To guard and look after the Games and its visitors - as the Chinese are doing - is a responsible way of acting," Ms. Nilsson said.

The agency said no specific radiological terrorist-threat information was issued.

The Beijing city government announced Tuesday that it will conduct its first exercise to test responses to a nuclear attack in preparation for the Olympics.

The drill will involve several Chinese agencies including police, fire and environmental responders, Chinese government official Shan Qingsheng told the state-run Xinhua news agency.

The drill will simulate the effects of a radiological bomb set off inside the Olympic stadium.

The dispatch of the nuclear team to China has raised concerns among some counterintelligence officials because of the past compromise of nuclear weapons secrets to China.

The CIA determined that China obtained through espionage details of every deployed nuclear warhead in the U.S. arsenal, and the FBI has failed to identify the source despite investigating for more than a decade.

Computer hard drives from a NEST laptop computer that contained nuclear weapons secrets used to disarm weapons disappeared from a Los Alamos National Laboratory vault in May 2000.

Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, countering nuclear terrorism was made a high priority for U.S. intelligence and law-enforcement agencies, based on intelligence reports that al Qaeda planned to assemble and use a radiological bomb in an attack in the United States.

In 2002, the FBI and NEST conducted joint monitoring of Muslim sites in Washington and five other cities looking for signs of a nuclear material, according to U.S. News & World Report.

The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is a separatist Muslim group operating in China's western Xinjiang province. ETIM is the most militant of the various groups in the Xinjiang region that demand separation from China and the creation of an independent state called East Turkestan. China has long viewed the ETIM and similar groups as a threat to its territorial integrity, and after the attacks on America on Sept. 11, 2001, executed a harsh crackdown on the region by increasing its military presence, detaining suspected members, and limiting religious rights. Chinese authorities blame separatist groups, including ETIM, for more than 200 terrorist attacks since 1990, resulting in 162 deaths and more than 440 injuries.

While China has portrayed its battle with ETIM as part of a worldwide struggle against international terrorism, the group's global reach and links to al Qaeda are disputed. In August 2002, the administration of U.S. president George W. Bush froze the group's U.S. assets, and, the following month, the United Nations added ETIM to its "list of terrorists and terrorist supporters associated with Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda network." Besides Xinjiang, ETIM cells are said to be operating in Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan. U.S. officials claim that the group has a "close financial relationship" with al Qaeda, based on information they received from militants currently detained at the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. A January 2002 Chinese government study found that ETIM members crossed into Afghanistan, where they received training from al Qaeda members, and returned back to Xinjiang to foment terrorist activity. According to the report, ETIM has received money, weapons and support from al Qaeda.

At the same time, critics claim the U.S. decision to recognize ETIM as a terrorist group was a political move, designed to appease China during UN Security Council negotiations over a resolution on Iraq. Human rights groups have accused China of repressing Xinjiang's native Uighur population, the region's Turkic-speaking ethnic majority who practice a moderate form of Sufi Islam. Until recently, the United States had accused China of using the war against terrorism as an excuse to clamp down on political dissent in the region, and castigated the Chinese military for human rights violations against Uighur nationalists. ETIM leader Hahsan Mahsum has denied any connections between al Qaeda and his group.

East Turkestan maintained a measure of independence until the early 1950s, when Mao's victorious rebel armies turned to the peripheries and began securing Chinese borders, capturing Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, Tibet and East Turkestan. It is the country's largest province, estimated to have approximately 40 million residents, as well as large deposits of oil, gas and uranium. The native Uighurs resisted Chinese occupation until the 1960s, but failed to win support from neighboring Muslim states because of their fractured tribal nature. Since the mid-1980s, however, an active pan-Islamic movement has attempted to cement the opposing groups together, a move that Chinese officials see as a tremendous potential threat.

China has pursued political support for its actions in Xinjiang for several years now. In 1999, Algeria and Saudi Arabia issued statements in support of Chinese territorial integrity after a visit by Chinese president Jiang Zemin, a move that was seen by some as condoning Chinese oppression of Uighurs. China maintains strict supervision over the region, encouraging "moderate Islam" under the leadership of "national imams", who are government-employed officials. As in Tibet, Chinese resettlement policies have resulted in a sharp rise of Han Chinese among the population. The number of Chinese residents has increased from 200,000 to 6 million over the past 30 years. Other counterterrorist measures include the transfer of large reinforcements to the border area in order to prevent the smuggling of weapons and people from neighboring countries, and harsh punishment of people suspected of involvement with the group. Human rights activists claim that during 1997 and the later part of 1996, some 1,000 Uighurs were executed and more than 10,000 were incarcerated for political reasons.

While Uighur dissatisfaction over Chinese rule has been a constant thorn in China's side over the past several decades, until recently, protests were limited to riots and demonstrations. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent independence of several Muslim Soviet republics bordering Xinjiang, as well as the rise of Muslim fundamentalism in the Middle East, have contributed to a rise in terrorist activity in the region. Five Uighurs were killed in riots near Kashgar in April 1990, and the region was put under martial law for several months. In February 1992, six people were killed in a powerful bus explosion in Urumqi, and three months later 22 people were killed in riots in Baaren. The various East Turkestan liberation groups showed signs of consolidation when, in September 1994, the five largest Uighur organizations - the East Turkestan Islamic Party, the East Turkestan People's Party, the Eastern Turkestan Gray Wolf Party, the Eastern Turkestan Independence Organization, and the Eastern Turkestan Liberation Front - met secretly in Gulja to discuss coordinating their activities. In 1995, the province saw sabotage of railroad tracks and oil fields, resulting in extensive damage. The following year, approximately 5,000 Uighurs were arrested after a series of attacks on Chinese interests.

Despite the government crackdown, the separatists' violent attacks have not abated. In March 1997, a bus explosion killed two people and injured 30 on the heels of several bus explosions that took place in Urumqi, the region's capital. An Uighur spokesman, in exile in Turkey, claimed responsibility for the attack, and announced that more Uighurs living in Kazakhstan were prepared to execute additional attacks. Attacks in the form of arsons, explosions, assassinations and kidnappings continued throughout 1998. In 1999, the Chinese government arrested hundreds of activists from dozens of various separatist organizations, a period that saw a significant decline in ETIM's activity. Since then, there have been several armed clashes between the Uighurs and Chinese security forces. In June 2000, a group of Uighurs ambushed a Chinese delegation to Xinjiang, killing one representative and seriously injuring two others.

Although ETIM has traditionally focused on Chinese targets, it may have plans to also attack American interests. In May 2002, two of its members were accused of planning to bomb the U.S. Embassy in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, and were subsequently deported from Kyrgyzstan to China.

"The Islamic Party of Turkestan" [i.e. Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Chinese Turkestan] Posts Its Platform on an Islamist Forum"The Islamic Party of Turkestan" is a jihadist group operating in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (also known as Chinese Turkestan or Uyghuristan), a region in northwestern China inhabited mostly by Muslims.

On May 21, 2008, the Islamist forum Al-Ikhlas (hosted by Piradius.net in Malaysia) posted the party's platform, as issued by its media department. The document sets out the party's goals and beliefs.

The following are excerpts from the platform document:

"We are a group that promotes jihad for the sake of Allah... Its members, [united in] monotheism, devoutness, piety, and jihad for the sake of Allah, aim to liberate Muslim East Turkestan from the apostate Communist Chinese occupation... and impose shari'a [law] in [this region]. By cooperating with the Muslim mujahideen throughout the Islamic world [we aim to] restore the Islamic Caliphate and impose shari'a throughout the world."

"Our Goals Are:

"To train the Muslim Turkestani youth to wage jihad..."

"To prepare the Muslim Turkestani masses [for jihad] and to bring them back to the right path [i.e. to the Salafi creed]..."

"To cooperate with all the groups waging jihad for the sake of Allah throughout the world, in order to repel the attacks of the apostates... and drive the Crusaders, Zionists and apostates from our Islamic world..."

"Principles:

"We believe that, like most Muslim countries, East Turkestan is under the direct and indirect occupation of apostates... and is governed by secular and democratic constitutions and laws...

"We believe that if Muslim countries are under direct or indirect occupation... waging jihad against those who rule them and subject them to apostate laws becomes a mandatory [duty].

"We believe that, since the apostate attacker has invaded our lands, jihad in the path of Allah has become a personal duty incumbent upon every Muslim in Turkestan..."

"We deem it necessary to impose shari'a in East Turkestan and in all [other] Muslim countries after they are liberated from the imperialists and apostates...

"We believe that any presence of the apostate Chinese occupiers - be it military, governmental, political or economic - is a legitimate target for jihad... This statement is a declaration of war upon them, and they must therefore leave East Turkestan immediately."

"We consider the presence of Chinese immigrants in Muslim East Turkestan illegitimate. They represent the most tangible form of Chinese occupation... They must leave Turkestan and return to their places of origin. This statement is [our] first and last warning [to them]...

"We reject... all symbols of Jahili [i.e. non-Islamic] nationalism, as well as the deviant [ideology of] democracy in all its forms, and [declare] our opposition to them...

"We are an independent, organized Islamic group, under the command of an Emir and a leadership... in accordance with the Islamic principles of shura [consultation]."

By Janet LevyWhen the 2008 Summer Olympic Games were awarded to Beijing seven years ago, hope arose that China's new-found status as a modern, world power and position in the world media spotlight would prompt increased tolerance and democracy nationwide. Clearly, that optimism has been dashed by the turmoil in Tibet.

Stellar economic performance and reforms, viewed sanguinely by the West as a sure route to liberalization, have occurred in China devoid of political reform. China's use of brutal force and massive arrests against Tibetan protestors bear witness to this lack of progress. Indeed, China today stands revealed as one of the worst perpetrators of human rights violations and religious repression in the world.

Among those singled out for similar harshness and violence is a portion of China's 30-million-strong Muslim community: the Islamic jihadists of the northwestern province of Xinjiang and surrounding areas. With Tibet in mind, the West may be tempted to view this decades-long unrest in Central Asia as yet another example of Chinese aggression and expansionism against a beleaguered population seeking independence. Yet, such a view is shortsighted and dangerous. For, in truth, the Islamic Jihadists of China's Xinjiang are linked to the Taliban in Afghanistan and Al Qaeda. Their terrorist methods and ideology are of a piece with the larger Islamic Jihadist goal to overthrow existing governments and install a religious theocracy. They, in fact, represent the Chinese battlefront of the worldwide Islamic Jihad.

China's Muslim Population

Inaccessibility to China's far flung regions and the exclusion of questions about religion in the last three national censuses make it difficult to obtain accurate figures about the Chinese Muslim population. But it is estimated at around 30 million, the second largest religious group in China after Buddhists. About 20 million are Hui, concentrated mostly in northwestern China. Another 8.5 million are Uyghurs who reside in Xinjiang province.

The Hui, culturally similar to the majority Han Chinese, follow Islamic dietary laws and some customs of Muslim dress but have engaged in only limited jihadist activity. Evidence exists of uprisings in two Hui villages, as well as some protest activity against the Danish cartoons of Mohammed. However, discrimination and economic deprivation against the Uyghurs and their push for a separate state have made for more extensive and organized jihadist activities by the militant, Uyghur Muslims throughout Central Asia. The nature of this activity -- the extent to which it is an uprising for a separatist state or supports a pan-Islamist agenda -- is difficult to assess given Communist China's history of repression of religious groups, rampant human rights abuses and lack of a free press, but some conclusions can be made.

The Uyghurs

The desire for an independent Uyghur state is a fairly recent development, dating from the 1930's, but the Uyghurs themselves are a historically nomadic people of Turkic Indo-European origin who can be traced back to the 700s.

The province in which they live, Xinjiang, is large and sparsely populated, representing one-sixth of China's total land mass. It borders Tibet, Russia, Kazakstan, Kyryzstan, Tajikstan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Indian state of Kashmir. Xinjiang is rich in oil, gas and mineral deposits. It also has numerous military installations and, until 1996, nuclear testing facilities, giving it significant and strategic military importance to China.

The Uyghurs have a separate language, culture, religion and identity from the dominant Han, who are deemed the "true," ethnic Chinese. Uyghurs hold a multiplicity of identities, including Muslim, Uyghur, Turk or Chinese and have historically been opposed to Han or majority Chinese rule. The Uyghurs in Xinjiang maintain an informal ethnic apartheid. They view the Chinese as inferior occupiers, equate Confucianism and Buddhism with idolatry, and frequent their own stores and restaurants. An estimated 23,000 mosques exist in the region, with many small neighborhood facilities, some financed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

According to Igor Rotar, a Central Asia correspondent for The Jamestown Foundation, Uyghurs "tend to be more zealous Muslims than their Central Asian neighbors. The majority of local, married women wear burqas, which is quite rare in Central Asia, and middle-aged men prefer to have beards."[1] Rotar says a Uyghur Muslim in Xinjiang explained to him that "In the Quran it is written that a Muslim should not live under the authority of infidels, and that is why we will never reconcile with the Chinese occupation." China's restrictive policy on family size is also a point of contention in this community.

In direct contrast to this view, visiting Associated Press reporter, William Foreman, recently observed, "Most Uighurs practice a moderate form of Islam. The men wear ornate skullcaps, or "doppi," while most women favor head scarves but rarely cover their faces. Many can be seen dressed in tight skirts or stylish hip-hugging designer jeans and high heels."[2]

As a non-Han people, Uyghurs have been viewed by the Chinese as inferior and portrayed as untrustworthy, shiftless, warring troublemakers. They have been discriminated against in employment and are victims of economic deprivation in an underdeveloped area. Drug use, particularly opium and hashish, is rampant and has added to the hopelessness and poverty. A high incidence of AIDS due to heroin injection appears to have attracted little government intervention to combat the problem.

The Push for Uyghur Independence

In the 1930s, Uyghur separatists proposed a constitution for a Uyghur republic that referenced Islam and shariah law but focused primarily on economic development and political freedom. The occupation of northern Xinjiang in 1949 by China's military, the People's Liberation Army, was viewed as a hopeful sign because China's leader, Chairman Mao Zedong, pledged an end to "Great Han chauvinism." In reality, Chinese Communists valued Xinjiang, not for egalitarian reasons, but as a strategic and natural, resource-rich asset. Meanwhile, the Han-dominated, Communist Party asserted a unified, Chinese identity and sought to eliminate the distinct Uyghur culture and history.

During the Cold War, the Uyghurs of Xinjiang, surrounded by the Chinese and the USSR, had limited options for self-determination. In the 1980s when restrictions eased in China against ethnic minorities and religious practices, the Uyghurs spoke out about discrimination and injustice. They reasserted their demands for a homeland, which continue to this day. An active Uyghur exile community in Central Asia, estimated at 400,000, has sought to draw attention to the plight of the Uyghurs and their quest for a separate state.

The Uyghur-Jihadist Link

Motivated by legitimate desires for independence, militant Turkic Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang have, since the 1970's, engaged in terrorist activities. These include killing police and military officers, robbing banks, rioting and bombing. The Uyghurs in Xinjiang, members of the 400,000-strong Uyghurs in the diaspora and other Islamist groups in Central Asia have become part of a pan-Islamic movement that developed since the mid-1980's and includes terrorist activity that intensified after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Islamists in Xinjiang have reportedly received financial support and training from the Taliban in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda and the Jamaat-i-Islami of Pakistan.

The potential for the Islamization of the region and the ability of Islamists to capitalize on the existing conflict between the Uyghurs and the Chinese government is a real concern to the Communist government.

The strongest militant Islamist groups in the region include the East Turkistan Liberation Organization (ETLO), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), allegedly linked to Al Qaeda. The IMU renamed itself the Islamic Party of Turkistan and publicly declared that it seeks to create an Islamic state across Central Asia and expand its recruitment efforts throughout the region. For traditional Uyghur separatists, these groups represent a source of wealthy supporters who offer funding, weapons support and terrorist training. They also help buttress and reinforce the global Islamist movement into China. For example, in 1989, Al Qaeda set up a base in China with links to the ETIM and the IMU.

Xinjiang's porous border with Kazakhstan, Tajikstan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan facilitates the conducting of terrorist training just outside of China, as well as the movement of weapons, explosives and terrorist operatives. It also enables the indoctrination of Muslims in extremist ideology out of the reach of China.

China reports that the ETIM has ties to Central Asia Uyghur Hezbollah in Kazakstan and that 1,000 Uyghurs were trained by Al Qaeda. They maintain that 600 of them escaped to Pakistan, 300 were caught by U.S. forces on the battlefield in Afghanistan and 110 returned to China and were caught. At the beginning of the conflict in Afghanistan, U.S. forces did, in fact, report that 15 Uyghurs were imprisoned at Guantanamo Bay.

According to B. Raman, former head of the Counterterrorism Division of India's external intelligence agency, the Uyghurs have been approached by the Hizb ut-Tahrir, a political party whose goal is to unite all Muslim countries in a unitary Islamic state. The Hizb ut-Tahrir in Pakistan and in other parts of Central Asia, has sought to use the Uyghurs to set up sleeper cells in Xinjiang.

However, it would be inaccurate to characterize the Uyghurs as completely influenced by outside jihadists, for, their own history is rife with violence in the name of Islam. The first major uprising of Uyghur Muslims took place in Northwestern China in 1990 with a series of protests. As a result, China deployed troops and began to conduct military exercises in the region.

In 1996, following the first meeting of the countries that would later form the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan), China began clamping down on the Uyghur Muslims. In an effort toward political stabilization, the Chinese implemented measures to improve the economy of the area and built roads, rails and pipelines connecting Xinjiang with Central Asia. But an unanticipated result of this economic expansion was the establishment of alliances in border states for Islamic terrorist training and the smuggling of drugs, arms and people.

In 1997, Uyghur Islamists were responsible for several bombings, including a bus bombing in Beijing. Although an Uyghur terrorist group claimed responsibility for the Beijing bombing, Chinese media covered up this fact as they did with many other terrorist attacks prior to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States.

China's Position on Terrorism - Pre & Post 9/11

This attitude began to change just prior to 9/11, when Taliban fighters from Afghanistan began incursions into Xinjiang. The activities prompted formation in June of 2001 of the China-initiated, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The SCO was designed to combat Islamism by setting up a terrorist monitoring center, promoting economic development throughout the region and establishing Chinese and Russian hegemony over the area.

At its first meeting, it reached an agreement calling for cooperation to prevent terrorism and insurgency, mutual identification of terrorists and terrorist organizations, suppression of terrorist activities and extradition of terrorists. Member states also agreed to create rapid deployment forces, conduct joint military exercises, investigate sources of terrorist financing and exchange information on illicit WMD manufacturing, purchase, storage and movement.

This represented a huge step forward because, up to 9/11, the Chinese government was not open about the existence and extent of jihadist activities within its country. Chinese authorities viewed acts of terrorism as a police, law-and-order issue rather than a global jihadist effort and believe that disseminating public reports on crime spreads the activity and increases unrest.

After 9/11, China changed its position to show that it, too, was a victim of the Islamist jihad. The government admitted the proliferation of terrorist activities over the previous decade, listing explosions, assassinations, poisonings, rioting and vehicle fires. At the time, they claimed to have uncovered links between Uyghur Muslim groups and Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, the Taliban and Hizb ut-Tahrir.

At a press conference in Pakistan in 2002, Chinese government officials publicized the arrest of a high-level Uyghur terrorist by Pakistani authorities. The Chinese also requested that the United States repatriate 300 Uyghurs captured on the battlefield in Afghanistan, who were alleged fighters for Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

In 2003, China signed an extradition treaty with Pakistan to remand terrorists from the ETIM and the ETLO, whom they believed were affiliated with Al Qaeda and the Taliban and who had received training and funding from Osama Bin Laden. The Chinese government pressured Pakistan, known for its alliance with the Taliban and its promulgation of jihadist ideology, to turn over known Uyghur militants who had escaped to Pakistan. This appeal has not produced significant results.

Recent Uyghur Violence

Jihadist violence has continued to escalate over the last few years. In 2004, Uyghurs trained by the IMU were suspected of involvement in an explosion in Balochistan, Pakistan, in which three Chinese engineers were killed. The following year during the Eid-al-Adha religious celebrations, two explosions from suicide bombings near the Kazakstan border in Xinjiang killed 13 people and injured 18.

In January of 2007, the Chinese raided an ETIM terrorist training camp close to the Afghanistan and Pakistan borders. The raid, in which 18 terrorist suspects died, yielded a large explosives and weapons cache. Also seized was a 32-minute video urging Uyghur Muslims to make use of key public events as a platform to publicize their grievances worldwide. It contained references to a "World Islamic Resistance Book" and the establishment of China as a jihad zone, plus included an impressive display of weapons and explosives and a demonstration of vehicle bombings.

On March 7, 2008, two men believed to be Pakistanis and a Uyghur woman who was trained by a Pakistan-based terrorist group attempted to sabotage a China Southern Airlines flight from Xinjiang to Beijing. The woman, who traveled first class, carried flammable liquids onto the aircraft that but failed to ignite them in the plane lavatory. All three terrorists involved carried Pakistani passports.

Chinese Counter-terrorist Measures

To curtail incidents like those cited above of a potentially burgeoning Islamist threat, the Chinese government maintains strict supervision over Xinjiang and has dealt harshly with terrorist activity. China has successfully altered the demography of the region by repopulating it with Han Chinese, now the majority. To curb the influence of Islam, the government engages in surveillance of mosques, restricts the participation of youth and women in mosque activities, monitors the content of services and curtails participation in the Haj. Muslim clerics or imams who serve in the region must complete their training at a state-controlled seminary and teach "moderate" Islam under the leadership of the state.

A heavy police presence around the mosques and the military exists at the border to prevent smuggling of people and weapons. Police routinely cordon off areas in which terrorist incidents or rioting occurs and remove and imprison the agitators before they reopen the area.

Potential Threats to U.S. Security

The Xinjiang-inspired violence is not restricted, however, to attacks just against the Chinese. In May of 2002, a planned attack by the ETIM on the U.S. Embassy in neighboring Kyrgyzstan was thwarted. At the time, Pakistani authorities found blueprints indicating the location of the embassy, the American military base and a synagogue.

In view of the strategic military and economic importance of Central Asia, the need to protect its interests in the region and pressure from the Chinese, the United States agreed to classify some local groups, like the ETIM, as terrorist organizations and freeze their American assets. Of course, geopolitical concerns over maintaining good, Sino-U.S. relations played a major part in the State Department's classification. The United States wants to ensure continued U.S. military presence in Central Asia in the midst of China's growing economic and political power in the region and any Chinese attempts to check U.S. influence in the region.

Politics is also playing a larger role as the Olympics draw closer and the international spotlight focuses on China's oppression of Tibetans, Falun Gong and other repressed groups. While some may be prone to view the Uyghur Muslims through the prism of China's historical crackdown on religious groups and ethnic minorities, the record of historical, jihadist terrorist activity, listed above, would argue against it.

Despite the Unites States' own grievances with China, serious questions should be raised to better understand the global jihad, its role in China and our fight in the war against Islamic terrorism.

We should ask: how much of the Uyghur separatist struggle has been co-opted by the Islamists and is being used to breed fellow travelers for the jihadist agenda? Who are victims -- the Uyghurs, China or both? Is it realistic for China to fear Islamic extremism, territorial expansion and the spread of insurgency to other aggrieved groups? Is China using the excuse of terrorism as an excuse for a crackdown on the Muslim Uyghurs or is China a victim of the extensive network of Islamic terrorist groups in Xinjiang and Central Asia? Have the Islamists joined forces with Uyghur separatists to capitalize on the struggle in Tibet? Is the West failing to differentiate between radical Islam and legitimate human rights grievances? Is China's "Strike Hard" policy serving to radicalize the Uyghurs and causing them to find common cause with the Islamists? Finally, how can the United States assist China in the mutual fight against global Islamic terrorism and, at the same time, successfully address issues of religious repression and civil rights?

As China faces world scrutiny and the threat of disruptions and boycotts against the upcoming Olympics for its ruthless civil rights violations, we should be mindful of the growing Islamization of the Xinjiang province under the Uyghur conflict. Clearly, jihadist groups are active in the region and have coordinated terrorist actions, recruitment, training and financing. They are dedicated to the establishment of an Islamic state in Central Asia, related to the worldwide Islamic jihad.

As has been evident in other parts of the world, Islamists deftly graft their agenda onto regional political struggles to form unholy alliances and advance their pan-Islamist agenda. We should not be deceived by our zeal to focus on human rights abuses in China or focus entirely on Tibet and the separatists. Instead, this important component of unrest in Central Asia needs its own specific analysis, political action and focused response.

Leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: ‘Allah Willing, America Will Soon Be Annihilated… We Will Reach America… The Eyes of the Nation of Muhammad are set on Washington, London, Moscow, Paris, Delhi, Beijing'Following are excerpts from a speech by Muhammad Taher Al-Farouq, leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which was posted on December 3, 2007 at http://ek-is.org, a website hosted in Tampa, FL, and owned by NOC4 Hosts Inc.

Muhammad Taher Al-Farouq: "I would like to congratulate the nation of Muhammad, and especially the mujahideen. In this holy month of Ramadhan, we ask them that, as part of their resistance to the enemies of God, His Prophet, the enemies of the Koran, Islam, and the Muslims, they increase their martyrdom and jihad operations, and fight the sworn enemies of Islam - the Jews, the Christians, and the hypocrites - and carry out the best jihad operations.

[...]

"The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is part of the nation of Muhammad, and it is known by this name to friends and foes alike. The enemies of Islam know this movement by this name. This movement is connected to the Islamic Emirate we had in Afghanistan, under the leadership of the Emir of the Believers, Mullah Muhammad Omar.

[...]

"Our goal is to implement Islamic law, the law of the Koran, in God's kingdom. In other words, this kingdom, which belongs to God, should be ruled by the laws of God alone.

[...]

"Today, the enemies of Islam object to this goal, just like they did during the time of Muhammad, but let me announce to the believers, to the nation of Muhammad, that in the very near future, thanks to the sacrifices made by the nation of Muhammad, we will regain our glory of past times.

[...]

"As long as there are infidels and enemies of God in His kingdom, this movement will continue its jihad. Today, the nation of Muhammad has everything but an Islamic caliphate. We have clerics, mujahideen, and fedayeen, but not a caliphate. One of the most important goals of the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan is to establish an Islamic caliphate at any price.

[...]

"We take pride in the brothers in all the countries of Islam - in Iraq, Somalia, Lebanon, Palestine, Chechnya, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Africa, and Asia, and in all the countries of the world. We take pride in their jihad to elevate the word of Allah. We have good relations with them. As I've said, their joy is our joy, and their sorrow is our sorrow. We all constitute one body. We all have a common goal against the infidels. When mujahideen are taken by the enemy - whether the Americans or other infidels - to Guantanamo or other prisons, it does not ask them to which nation or community they belong. It treats them all the same way, and tortures all of them the same way."

[...]

Interviewer: "Which countries help you?"

[...]

Al-Farouq: "The countries that supported and helped God's Messenger help us.

[...]

"The money in the infidel banks is the daily bread of the mujahideen. The convoys come from Pakistan, through Torkhan or Karachi, are the daily bread of the mujahideen. The money in the banks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and elsewhere is the daily bread of the mujahideen. The governments that use this money against the Muslims and Islam acquire bombs and airplanes with it, in order to bomb the Muslims. Therefore, this money is the [legitimate] booty of the Muslims.

[...]

"I always tell the mujahideen that if they want to get money, they should beat the infidels and take their money. You must hit them on the head and take their money. You should rob their banks and take the money. You should take their people prisoner, just like the Prophet did. Don't think this is a sin, because the Prophet Muhammad himself exchanged prisoners for ransom. There's nothing wrong with collecting money in exchange for prisoners.

[...]

"Allah willing, America will soon be annihilated, just like the USSR was annihilated. We are convinced of this.

[...]

"The people who made our nation proud by carrying out the 9/11 martyrdom operations in Washington and New York were the 19 best people of our nation. All the martyrs in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Iraq, Palestine, and elsewhere should be seen as role models.

[...]

"Allah willing, we will reach America. The men of this nation will reach America. The goal of this campaign is not only Kabul, Kandahar, or Baghdad. The eyes of the nation of Muhammad are set on Washington, London, Moscow, Paris, Delhi, Beijing, and other countries. This is our goal and, Allah willing, we will get there."

The UN's nuclear watchdog says it is training Chinese security officials to deal with a possible radiological attack during the Olympics Games.

Nuclear experts have staged simulated exercises with Chinese officials, although the watchdog said it was unaware of any specific threat.

Drills included what to do if a so-called "dirty bomb" was smuggled into an Olympic venue in Beijing.

The games are due to be held in the Chinese capital from 8-24 August.

"The awareness after the 9/11 attacks [was] that there are basically no limits for what can be done," said Anita Nilsson, of the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Office of Nuclear Security.

"In this case it is better to be proactive, to review the practices and to put them up to standard and to implement them," she said.

IAEA and Chinese officials have carried out a series of simulated exercises in Beijing, including how to respond to the discovery of a suspected "dirty bomb" in a restaurant.

A "dirty bomb" is a weapon designed to contaminate the local environment by disbursing radioactive material.

Peter Colgan, one of Dr Nilsson's deputies, said the exercises had gone "very well".

Dr Nilsson warned that the same threats would exist for the London Olympics in 2012.

"There is a major shift in threat perception over the last five to 10 years. And we have to take that into account and to do accordingly, whether it is Olympic games in Beijing or London. These measures must be implemented."

Organisers of the 2012 games say "work is progressing to ensure a safe and secure" event.

China says it has cracked a terrorist group plotting to kidnap foreigners during the Beijing Olympics and another that planned to carry out attacks with toxic materials.

"The violent terrorist group plotted to kidnap foreign journalists, tourists, and athletes during the Beijing Olympics and, by creating an international impact, achieve the goal of wrecking the Beijing Olympics," Ministry of Public Security spokesman Wu Heping said of the kidnap plot.

But critics are sceptical, saying Beijing is inflating the terror threat to justify a crackdown on dissent ahead of the Olympics.

Athlete's reaction

Trickett – a hot chance to win six gold medals in Beijing – told The Courier-Mail the threat was even more real because of the bloody legacy of the 1972 Munich Olympics where 11 Israeli athletes were killed by Palestinian terrorists.

She said it was a relief to know Chinese authorities had foiled the plot in question.

"It's a credit to them (the Chinese Government) that they were aware that these things can happen and they were looking for signs of dangers – that's a huge comfort," she said.

"Obviously that's very scary news, but the Chinese Government and the governments of all other nations will be taking those threats very seriously.

"I won't say concerns won't cross my mind at some point – because to be honest they already have.

"But you can't live your life based on threats and being worried about what might happen – because it may or may not happen."

But for Karen Seebohm, the Brisbane mother of the Australian swimming team's youngest member – 100m backstroke gold medal contender 15-year-old Emily – the news was horrifying.

"Holy hell, that's frightening. The fact that she's very young makes it even more of a worry," she said.

"That would be very worrying for any mother to have to deal with that sort of thing – it doesn't matter how old they are I would think."

The Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) said today that its athletes had no reason to worry about the alleged terrorist threats.

AOC vice president Ron Harvey said security was sufficient and was being constantly reviewed.

"From day one, planning for Beijing has taken into account some of these security aspects and we've been working very hard with the Australian embassy and the Australian Government officials in that area. We believe the Chinese security forces are doing a very good job and we've got faith in them."

Two more foiled plots

News of the kidnap plan follows the revelation by China of two other terror plots last month, but there has been skepticism over whether Beijing is inflating a terror threat to justify tighter control on dissent ahead of the Olympics.

Both plots were allegedly uncovered in the vast and remote Xinjiang region in northwest China, which borders Central Asia and has a strong Muslim population of Turkic-speaking ethnic Uighurs.

Wu said they were both orchestrated by the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which is listed by the United Nations and the United States as a terrorist organisation.

The kidnapping plot, which involved 35 people, was cracked in late March and early April in several areas of Xinjiang including the regional capital Urumqi, according to Wu, whose comments were posted on the government's main website.

In the other case, police in January broke up a group whose leaders were "sent from abroad" by ETIM to stage attacks in Beijing and Shanghai with toxic materials and explosives, he said.

Targets were to include "hotels, government buildings, military bases and other establishments".

If discovered by police, the plotters were ordered to "perish together", according to Wu, who added some of its participants had been sent abroad for training, without giving specifics.

Police allegedly seized explosives and Islamic "Jihad" training materials in the raids on both groups.

Wu did not say why the government had waited to release the information.

Threats exaggerated?

China maintains it faces an imminent terror threat from ETIM.

However, some Xinjiang experts and exiled Uighurs have said China vastly inflates the threat to tighten its control over the restive and oil-rich region.

Many Uighurs say they have suffered widespread repression under nearly six decades of Chinese rule, and have chafed as Han Chinese flooded into their homeland and dramatically changed their way of life.

Xinjiang officials had said last month that police on January 27 smashed a terrorist group planning an attack on the Beijing Olympics and that a separate bid to blow up a Chinese airliner was foiled in March.

Chinese authorities have refused to publicise evidence relating to either incident, fuelling accusations from rights groups and exiles that the plots had been fabricated by Beijing.

China said two terrorists were killed and 15 captured in the January 27 raid in Urumqi, but residents in the area told an AFP journalist who went there last week they had no recollection of any violent clash.

After the September 11, 2001 terror attacks, China pressured the United States - which sought Beijing's help in its so-called "war on terror" - to list ETIM as a terrorist group, Xinjiang experts say.

Critics say China has since abused that listing to justify crackdowns in the region.

From Times OnlineJuly 9, 2008Police shoot dead five members of 'Chinese al-Qaeda'Jane Macartney in Beijing

With less than a month to go before the Olympics open in Beijing, Chinese police have shot dead five members of a Muslim ethnic minority they said were bent on waging holy war inspired by al-Qaeda and setting up an independent state.

Several dozen police entered a residential building hunting for three men believed to have attacked an ethnic Han Chinese woman in a city hairdressing salon in late May but opened fire after an officer was wounded as they tried to enter an apartment to make an arrest, it was reported.

One witness said he heard several dozen shots about three minutes after the police entered the building. He said he counted about 20 police vehicles entering the compound and saw plainclothes police wearing body armour and equipped with light firearms.

State media said when police raided the apartment where 15 ethnic Uighurs were hiding, several rushed out wielding knives, shouting “sacrifice for Allah”.

One officer said the police were forced to use teargas and to open fire, killing five on the spot and wounding two. The wounded were taken to hospital and the other nine people were captured. Witnesses said they saw four ambulances arrive in the compound within 20 minutes of the shooting.

Some 30 knives, the biggest measuring 50 centimetres long, were found in the apartment. There was no report that more serious weapons such as guns, grenades or explosives had been found.

The police officer said: “The suspects confessed they had all received training on the launching of a ’holy war.’ Their aim was to kill Han people, the most populous ethnic group in China whom they took as heretics, and found their own state.”

The incident in Urumqi, the regional capital of the far western Xinjiang region bordering Kazakhstan, was the deadliest encounter to be reported for years between Chinese security forces and suspected militants from the Uighur minority.

The Uighurs, who are engaged in a low-intensity insurgency to demand an independent state of East Turkestan in Xinjiang province, have been blamed for sporadic incidents of violence although no serious attacks have been reported in China for more than a decade.

Washington accuses one group of being linked with al-Qaeda.

China has repeatedly warned of a terrorist threat from Xinjiang and announced at least five separate raids this year in the region that have foiled attacks. In April, police said they crushed a group that was plotting to kidnap foreign journalists, tourists and athletes during the Olympics. In January, police in Urumqi said they broke up a group whose leaders were planning to stage attacks in Beijing and Shanghai with toxic materials and explosives.

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, the top official responsible for the Olympics, said yesterday that security was the single most important factor for a successful games. “A safe Olympics is the most significant symbol of a successful Olympics in Beijing, and also the most important symbol to display the national image of China.”

In the latest sign of how determined China is to ensure a smooth Olympics, Beijing will from next week place hundreds of security staff at checkpoints on roads into the city with sniffer dogs and metal detectors.

China has been increasing anti-terror preparations and the top police official last year labelled terrorism as the biggest threat to the event. But this causes a dilemma for a Government eager to show the world that China is a stable nation where visitors can travel without fear of violence. The last known Uighur attack was in 1997 in Urumqi when bombs placed in buses killed nine and wounded seventy-four.

2. We must have made a interesting deal to risk putting NEST into the den of China's intelligence apparatus.

3. China's policy of supporting the global jihad to confound the US has now officially entered into the "blowback" stage, although I believe it well may have started quite a while ago, but has been hidden by the PRC.

4. This perfectly refutes the "It's all America's fault" leftists/Ronulans that try to explain the global jihad as the result of American foreign policy.

BEIJING: Chinese authorities have replaced top police and security officials in the Muslim dominated Xinjiang province, which is the hotbed of separatism and political violence. They have also closed down 41 "illegal" places of worship.

These places of worship were used as training ground for conducting a "holy war", Chen Zhuangwei Chen, the police chief of Urumqi, capital of the Xinjiang province, said. Xinjiang, which borders central Asia and Pakistan, has been the scene of a pro-independence movement by a section of the eight million Uighurs living there for a long time.

The authorities also announced they have detained 82 "suspected terrorists" in the past six months in view of fears that they might disrupt the Olympic Games. They belong to five groups that "allegedly plotted sabotage against the Beijing Olympics", the official Xinhua news agency quoted the police chief in Urumqi, Xinjiang's capital, as saying.

The government has annouced the replacement of army and security officials in the ranks of three deputy core commanders, political commissars and the head of the Communist Party organisation department in the army. The replacement suggests that the central government has been unhappy about the inability of local officials to put down the surging separatist movement in the province.

The new head of the organisation department is Liu Xiang Song, the government announced. One of the three new core commanders is Hanabati Sabukhaya, an officer from the Kazak race. Xinjiang borders Kazakisthan and several other countries including Pakistan and Russia. "From now, all police officers must act urgently, get involved once more in Olympic security, to make sure large and small incidents alike do not happen," Chen was quoted by official media as saying.

Police arrest "terrorists" during the "Taishan Mountain 2008" drills in Jinan, East China's Shandong province in this June 30, 2008 file photo. [Xinhua]

The Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) poses a real threat to the Beijing Olympics because investigations show it has been plotting terror attacks on venues, a senior security official has said.

"It's not imaginary. We have been focusing on the ETIM and it has been labeled a terrorist group not only by our country, but also the international community," Ma Zhenchuan, director of the security command of the Beijing Games, said.

Ma Zhenchuan"Intelligence reports show the group has been planning to carry out terrorist attacks during the Games," Ma told China Central Television (CCTV) over the weekend, stressing that his command had already worked out detailed counter-terrorism plans.

Police in Kashgar in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region said last week that they had busted 12 wings of transnational terrorist groups, including the ETIM and the Hizb-e-Tahrir, this year.

Earlier this month, the public security bureau in Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang, held a press conference to announce that five "terrorist groups" that were hatching plots to attack Games venues had been smashed and 82 people detained.

Police have destroyed 41 bases where Islamic militants used to get training, too, the bureau said.

Ma, however, warned that thwarting the ETIM does not mean safety because it is just a part of the terrorist threat to the Olympics.

"We have been cooperating with the security authorities of all participating countries" to thwart any plot to disrupt the Games.

Security and information officials of more than 80 countries have been collaborating with their Chinese counterparts to counter possible terrorist threats, the Beijing Daily has quoted an Olympic security official Kou Bo as saying.

Beijing has beefed up its security measures, including forming 40 anti-terrorism units with 188 members in the city alone.

The major tasks of the units will be to prevent terrorists from launching biological, chemical, nuclear or other radioactive attacks and bombings, Xinhua has reported. The units are on 24-hour duty from July 1.

The city has mobilized about 110,000 security guards plus more than 1 million residents and installed 300,000 cameras to help detect security threats, Ma said.

Armed policemen will patrol downtown and suburban Beijing to deter terrorists from launching any attack.

Security checks have also been tightened in all provinces, regions and other cities, as well as airports, train stations, bus depots and all entry and exit points.

At least two people have been killed by bus bombs in southern China, heightening fears over terrorism less than three weeks before the start of the Olympics.

Police gave no motive for the two rush-hour attacks in Kunming, a city of six million that is a popular base for tourists.

But they said they were clearly planned. "According to preliminary investigations, the explosions were cases of man-made, deliberate sabotage," a spokesman said.

A witness said that he saw a "thin, short man" get off one of the buses at a stop and run off down the street 20 seconds before it exploded.

The Chinese authorities have repeatedly warned of the threat to the Olympics from attacks, including home-grown ones.

They have singled out Uighurs, a Muslim group from the far western province of Xinjiang, and radical Tibetans as "splittists" and potential terrorists.

They claim one shadowy Uighur group, known as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and accused of a number of attacks including bus bombings in the 1990s, is linked to al-Qaeda.

But small explosions set off by aggrieved local residents are also not unknown in Chinese cities.

Kunming is the capital of Yunnan province, which borders Tibet and Burma and where a violent riot about the price of rubber over the weekend was put down by police, who shot two people dead.

The first explosion yesterday around 7.05am local time on board a bus at a stop on People's Road West, one of Kunming's main thoroughfares.

One person was killed and another ten injured, according to local media. The bus was left with a gaping hole in its side, its windows shattered.

The second explosion happened on another bus on the same road about an hour later. Another person was killed and a further four injured.

According to some reports, there was a third explosion later in the morning, in which two people were killed and one injured, but this was discounted by local officials. There was also no confirmation of a report that another victim of the first bombing died on the way to hospital.

The first victim was named as Wang Dezhi, 30, who was with her husband going home to rejoin their daughter and celebrate her birthday. Her husband, Han Guangming, was also injured.

"My wife is gone, and I'm injured - I feel it is the end of the world," the state news agency quoted Mr Han as saying.

The second victim was Chen Shifei, 26, from the town of Lijiang, also in Yunnan.

Police sealed off the area, checking cars for potential culprits, according to local residents.

"We are all talking and guessing about the reason," a waitress at the nearby Garden Restaurant told The Daily Telegraph. "But people have no clue at all. The road where the buses exploded has been sealed off, for a distance of about 500 yards."

One witness, a warden at a nearby bicycle parking zone, said: "The explosion was only ten yards away from me. It was so loud I felt dizzy for a few seconds. Then I saw black smoke coming out of a bus.

"I worried that the bus would explode and ran back a little. About ten minutes later, police and ambulances came. Lots of people were carried out of the bus, dripping blood."

Yunnan is an ethnically diverse province, home to large numbers of both Tibetans and Muslims, and is a popular tourist destination for its spectacular scenery.

Kunming also has a growing population of resident foreigners, attracted to its sunny, moderate climate and a way of life considered more relaxed than elsewhere in China.

Beijing, July 23: In view of the "unsurpassed" terror threat to the Beijing Olympics to kick off next month, security of air, rail and long-distance bus transport have been put on high alert in the city.

China Civil Aviation Administration has announced that no plane would be allowed to take off or land at the Beijing International Airport from 7 pm to midnight on the opening day of the Olympic ceremony on August 8.

Domestic and foreign airlines had been notified about the move and flights would be rescheduled to minimize inconvenience to passengers, an Administration spokesman said.

Taking the security to a higher level, armed policemen with dogs began patrolling round the clock at the capitals four railway stations, including the yet-to-be-opened one in the southern district.

China says terror is the biggest threat to the Beijing Olympics and it is even "unsurpassed" in the Olympic history. A raft of measures is already in force but they were being reinforced in recent weeks.

At the Beijing West Railway Station, a major terminal, passengers were asked to taste liquids they were carrying or were being inspected with a special detector handset toidentify their contents.

"The detector will show if the liquid is alcohol or gasoline," a police officer in charge of the security check was quoted as saying by Xinhua news agency.

Security checks are carried out at the entrance to the subway station with every piece of baggage X-rayed and banned substances like banana oil and paint taken out.

It's difficult to gauge the degree of threat China faces given the opaque nature of the PRC's gov't. Still, all the steps China is taking strikes me as being fueled by real concern rather than opportunistic moves to tighten it's control of dissidents within it's borders.

If the jihadis are successful in completing a mass casualty attack on the olympics, then I will feel as Churchill was to have felt, hearing about America's entry into WWII.

If the jihadis are successful in completing a mass casualty attack on the olympics, then I will feel as Churchill was to have felt, hearing about America's entry into WWII.

I am confused (it happens often ); I presume Churchill was euphoric, relieved, and exuberant when he heard that America had decided to enter WWII. And you are saying that if NEST/China is unsuccessful and a "mass casualty attack" happens killing ten of thousands of civilians you will have the same warm emotions as Churchill??? Anotherwords, you will be happy that 10's of thousands of innocent civilians died???

Knowing that you now have a much improved chance of not being conquered is different than being happy innocents died.

I am still confused So you are saying that that if tens of thousands of Chinese die due a "mass casualty attack" during the Olympics we have a "much improved chance of not being conquered"? By whom - the Chinese? And therefore such attack is therefore justifiable (not necessarily "happy") that 10's of thousands of innocents die???

At the current time, western civilization isn't on the trajectory towards victory against the global jihad. If China were to suffer any serious attack during the olympics, it need not be a WMD attack to be serious, then the effect would be to bring China into a direct confrontation with the global jihad.

This would result in a loss of the use of China's banks for money laundering, the loss of access to China's military hardware and direct action from China's intelligence and military.

Long term, it may well result in the development of a true alliance between China and the west.

I guess I am speechless; you actually try to justify your joy, elation and hope that 10's of thousands of innocent Chinese("masses of brown people") will die in a mass casualty attack. An end is never justified by such horrific means. I presume your Asian wife isn't Chinese? No family attending the Olympics?

As for my "criticism of the military" I sincerely support the military, but please don't forget the military is not above the law. Guantanamo, Abu Graib, and killing innocent Iraq civilians and raping Japanese High School girls and Philippine girls (the U.S. troops in Japan seem to run amok) is wrong and the individual soldier(s) should be severely punished, not slapped on the wrist.

And somehow you seem to forget the civilians control the military; the military exists to serve and obey. Period. The people decide when the war is over (Vietnam) (Iraq) and the people tell the military what to do; not the other way around. The military doesn't get a vote nor does it make policy. Their duty is to simply obey civilan control or they should resign. Truman was right.

"please don't forget the military is not above the law. Guantanamo, Abu Graib, and killing innocent Iraq civilians and raping Japanese High School girls and Philippine girls (the U.S. troops in Japan seem to run amok) is wrong and the individual soldier(s) should be severely punished, not slapped on the wrist."

Guantanamo? As reported in the Media Matters thread, the MSM often reports accusations as fact. Careful now.

Abu Graib? No one was killed and INTERNAL ARMY PROCEDURES ARE WHAT BROUGHT THE CASE TO LIGHT. IT WAS THE PENTAGON THAT INFORMED THE MEDIA.

Iraq? Given the kind of war that it has been, I for one am quite proud of the tremendous job our troops have done in minimizing the casualties of the innocent. There was an article the other day in the NY Times I think it was on the same subject in the context of Afg front of the war. Perhaps you can find it and have a better sense of this subject , , ,

Raping Japanese HS girls? I almost posted on this forum the other day an article that pointed out that our troops in Japan overall have an outstanding record of being law-abiding, but did not because I thought the point was so obvious as to not need being made , , , Why do you smear so many with the actions of one?

As for the Philippines, educated man that you obviously are I am sure you know that when we had bases there that they were surrounded with whore houses and that whore houses and soldiers are a surefire combination for trouble and that discerning the facts can often be highly problematic. I lack the experience to discuss the whole subject of prostitution and military bases meaningfully, and would hope that you do too

Jason, of course we civilians are in charge. That does not mean that when it comes to fighting or knowing WTF is going on in the field that we should not listen carefully to those who so selflessly (yes this is a dig at your comment the other day about what America is willing to give ) put their butts on the line. I'd rather hear Gen. Petraeus's take on Iraq than BO's.

If I may offer in closing-- be careful of MSM and assuming what it says is true and be careful of projecting one case on the many.

quote author=JDN link=topic=1650.msg19534#msg19534 date=1216938636]I guess I am speechless; you actually try to justify your joy, elation and hope that 10's of thousands of innocent Chinese("masses of brown people") will die in a mass casualty attack. An end is never justified by such horrific means. I presume your Asian wife isn't Chinese? No family attending the Olympics?

**Are you this dense or just desperate to try to score some sort of ad hominem attack. Go back and really read the thread and try to see if you can grasp the concepts.**

BEIJING (Reuters) - Shanghai police have broken up an international terrorist group that had planned to attack an Olympic football preliminary match in the city, state news agency Xinhua said on Thursday.

"We have staged raids and cracked a group of terrorists," Xinhua quoted Cheng Jiulong, Shanghai Public Security Bureau deputy director and head of the Shanghai security office for the Olympics, as saying.

However, Cheng did not say when the terrorists were first discovered, how many suspects were detained or where they came from, said Xinhua.

"We have obtained information that international terrorist organizations would likely launch an attack against an Olympic venue in the city during the Games," Cheng said.

The report comes after state media said earlier in the day that Chinese paramilitary police swore to prevent terrorist attacks or "political incidents" from disrupting the Beijing Olympics in a show of force at the Games' main stadium.

"International terrorist forces are itching to strike with terror attacks against the Beijing Games, and hostile domestic forces' disruption and sabotage activities against the Games are steadily unfolding," the People's Armed Police News reported.

Chinese officials have said their main Games security worries focused on separatist militants seeking an independent Uighur homeland in the country's far west Xinjiang region and campaigners for an independent Tibet.

Human rights critics say China has grossly exaggerated the security threats from Uighurs and Tibetans to justify harsh control in those regions.

Shanghai police have been put on a "crisis" footing as part of a campaign to ensure public safety during Olympic football matches in the city next month, said Xinhua.

Shanghai will host 12 Olympic football matches during the Games and the stadium has been closed for security checks since July 20, with armed police conducting round-the-clock patrols, said the news agency.

Firefighters, engineers and medical staff would be deployed to the stadium to prevent bomb blasts and nuclear and biochemical attacks, it said.

Marc, as I again review your "Rules of the Road" (well written) I sometimes question your comitment to "the mission here is to search for TRUTH." "If the facts prove us wrong, we change our minds." And, "if you are cross-current or even against the general currents of thinking around her, we incourage you to participate." And again, I raise my point about a discussion, not a cut and paste contest - rarely does GM comment, but he seems very quick with the cut and paste; but then so too is the average child.

Regarding your comments;

Guantanamo? You are an attorney, does it seem right to hold someone, on quasi American soil, for 4+ years without a fair hearing? I mean if they are guilty, I don't care if you string them up. But if they are innocent, let them go back to their families. How would you feel if one of your friends was mistakenly picked up and put in Guantanamo? Wrong place, wrong time; but did nothing wrong. And it has happened a lot! How many have really been found guilty of a crime after 4+ years. Very very few. We are the laughing stock of the world and when we talk about civil rights we seem hypocritical in my opinion. We are a democracy; time we acted like one.

Abu Gralb? No one was killed; that is true. Does that make it right??? Crimes were committed! Where is our sense of decency?

Iraq? 10's of thousands of innocent civilians have been killed as collateral damage. Not to mention soldiers found guilty but excused by their superior of criminal acts.

Raping Japanese HS girls. Actually GM did post that article. Did you read it? I bet in college you took statistics. Read carefully what the commander said, "American troops WHEN THE ARE OFF BASE commit one half the number of serious crimes than the general Japanese population does." Now mind you, the average soldier is probably "off base" a total of eight hours or less once a week. Yet in those few hours versus 24/7 they commit one half of the total crimes the Japanese population commits. Statistically, imagine if the soldiers were off base 24/7 how many crimes would be committed? Probably five+ times the rate of the general Japanese population! Simply put, American troops in Japan are not lawbiding; they have been running amok and that's the problem. Imagine if foreign troops visiting LA raped local girls... As for the Philippina girl reference, perhaps I was not clear. American servicemen also raped a Philippine girl in Japan. However, I do understand your point about the Philippines proper.

Perhaps you know, but I am not sure GM is happy with the civilians in charge. (PS My name is James, but Jason sounds fine too ) As for the military commanders, I fully agree, their advice is sorely needed. And as for your "dig"; I think America truly is great and does give, but I question whether we entered this war only for alturistic reasons. If there was no oil in Iraq, would we have gone? Would we still be there? I don't think so. We had our own (money - oil) selfish interests at heart...

And I agree, simply because it is written, left or right, often the source is biased and therefore should be examined for truth.

As for GM, no this is not some sort of ad hominem (thank God I had four years of Latin in High School and still remember ) attack. I did read the thread; I did grasp your "concept" and I kindly gave you at least two opportunities to change/retract your argument/words, yet you persisted and said a mass casualty attack is good; i.e. you would "feel like Churchill felt when America entered the war." I am sorry, but to be euphoric and relieved and wish that 10's of thousands of innocent civilians die to further your cause is barbaric and reprehensible. And no, I not dense, just moral. As for the comment about your wife; you mentioned that she is Asian; I just expressed hope she wasn't Chinese given your attitude.

Back to Marc; I guess if you want this "forum to serve as a tremendous resouce for people who want to read about a subject/theme" it should offer different perspectives on the question/subject, don't you think? And I think commentaryis important; yes it takes more time and thought, but anyone, even an eight year old can cut and paste ad nauseam.

Not sure why you question the sincerity of my search for Truth. What facts or logic have proven me wrong?

If you want to discuss Guantanamo, may I suggest FIRST READING and then posting in the "Legal Issues created by the War with Islamic Fascism" thread?

Abu Graib: Where on earth do you get that I approve?!? What is the basis for questioning my decency?!? I simply pointed out that it was the Army's internal procedures that picked up on it and brought it to the light of day-- which seems relevant to me. Did you even know this? Do you ask yourself why you did not? What does the fact that you did not know tell you about the sources of info that you use?

Iraq and collateral damage: My point is that in a very difficult battle space we commit quite a bit of blood, sweat, and tears to there being as little collateral damage as possible-- yet you seem to be unaware of this and make "the perfect the enemy of the good". May I ask how often you get to have extended conversation with those who have served there about these things?

On the Japanese HS girl article: I see the point you are making and will have to reread the article in question. What thread is it in?

As for America going to war without an ulterior motive-- that would be the Clinton administration.

Concerning you and GM: Name calling such as "average child" and "eight year old" really are out of place here-- particularly when I took the time to explain to you how in the culture of this forum that the pasted article ofen IS the response. I'm thought I was clear and you seem like a bright fellow-- may I ask you to reread what I posted?

As for the go-round on whether GM would be happy at the death of thousands of innocents: IMHO perhaps GM could have been more lawyerly in how he expressed his point originally, but FWIW what communicates to me is that you are in something of a "gotcha" mode looking for something that to my eye is not really there-- perhaps this explains the testiness of GM's response? I'd like to suggest that the two of you take three deep breaths each and start fresh.

As for this:

"I guess if you want this "forum to serve as a tremendous resouce for people who want to read about a subject/theme" it should offer different perspectives on the question/subject, don't you think? And I think commentaryis important; yes it takes more time and thought, but anyone, even an eight year old can cut and paste ad nauseam."

Once again, the articles posted here can either BE the conversation and/or simply be a sharing of analysis and intel. IMHO the standards around here are-- no brag, just fact-- well above average. I have no problem realizing that there are people writing about these things who know more than me and think deeper about them than me, or who express what I want to say better than I do. I have no problem with using such articles as a form of communication.

In short sometimes we do comment directly-- for example in my unsuccessful comments to you-- and sometimes we paste. This is how we do it around here. I regret you don't care for it.

BEIJING, July 25 -- Shanghai police have halted a group of terrorists who planned to attack a football venue in the Olympic co-host city.

"We obtained information that international terrorist organizations were likely to launch an attack against an Olympics venue in the city during the Games," said Cheng Jiulong, Shanghai Public Security Bureau deputy director and head of the Shanghai security office for the Games.

Cheng said police staged raids and nabbed the terrorists. He would not provide further details such as when the terrorists were found, how many suspects were detained and their origins.

"According to information we have obtained, the Olympics venue, athletes' apartments and routes leading to the venue are considered safe," he said. "However, the threat of terrorism remains as some international terrorist organizations have threatened to launch attacks against the city.''

To prepare for the Olympic soccer events, police have left no stone unturned in the crackdown on security.

Shanghai Stadium has been closed for security checks since July 20, with both police and armed police conducting round-the-clock patrols.

Safety checks at key locations, such as Shanghai Stadium and the Xujiahui commercial center, would be intense, Cheng said.

He also said police would use special methods to prevent congestion at the entrances to Shanghai Stadium, which is expected to receive about 52,000 spectators for each match.

"Spectators with bags will be guided to special safety check points,'' he said. "This will improve the flow of people entering the stadium.''

Security personnel will work around the clock at the hotels where athletes will stay.

"Every team will be provided with a security liaison officer who will accompany the team while they are in the city and respond to their safety demands at any time,'' Cheng said.

In addition, railway police have stepped up security checks by requiring passengers to open drink bottles and take a sip - a surefire way to detect any dangerous liquids.

The beefed-up measures have already helped to stop some people from carrying flammable liquids, such as oil paint, on trains, according to the railway police authority. Passengers carrying dangerous goods on board will face criminal charges.

On Wednesday, city police announced rewards ranging from 10,000 yuan (US$1,464) to 500,000 yuan for information relating to serious crime.

As i've said in another venue years ago, I strongly suspect China has had multiple jihadist terror attacks which it had covered up. I think the degree of international scrutiny and legitimate worries about terror attacks during the olympics has forced China to take a different approach now. In my opinion, they would not openly discuss the matter if they were confident they could keep it from view.

Is the Chinese state media going to approach the story with any degree of journalistic impartiality? No. The fact it's being discussed at all means it is a serious issue, no matter how it's spun. We can take that much away.

As for Abu Graib, I did not say you approved, but you did emphasize and point out that "no one died" rather than pointing out that their actions were wrong and that they should be punished. Often, in commentary what isn't said is also important. It was wrong, howeverto compare it to beheading; as you also pointed out that is absurd.

Collateral damage; it happens - too much. But you are right, war is not perfect and even"smart bombs" don't always hit their target and/or intel is wrong. I was more referring specifically to the few bad apples in a very large orchard that have been put on trial and "excused".

As for the crime in Japan - rape it is in the Obama Phenomena thread. GM posted a copy of the article from the Japan Times (I had already read it) in response to one of my comments on thelast page.

As for America going to war without an ulterior motive, I don't quite get your joke (not defendingClinton mind you, I'm just "dense" . Odd, but the Democrats (would you believe I am a registered Republican and may well vote for MCain; I just don't like Bush) have "gone to war" theirshare of the time. FDR, JFK, etc.

As for GM and I. I did reread your post. And I did reread your Rule #7. I guess it was my understandingthat to paste an article without commentary can be the response, but that should be the exception.Rather, commentary (see Rule #7) should usually accompany it. My comment about children is that truly they can cut and paste faster than I can, but often children don't think and analyze the problem,nor often do they even question the article itself. That is why this forum is for adults or at leastthinking children.

As for the GM's being "happy at the death of thousands of innocents" to further his cause, I don't thinkhe was kidding. But if a military man or any government official expressed such an opinion they would beunemployed and ostracized. Hoping for "masses of brown people" in "mass graves" (GM's words) isnot only not "lawyerly" it is simply unacceptable in my book. I think if he published the same on www.chinaview.cn (his source for his recent post) the reaction might be more vocal and antagonisticthan on this forum.

I do agree, I think your standards are high, frankly in all matters, but in this Forum too of course.But if one were to comb through the provided analysis and intel,I think it would favor one side's opinion. My thought is that objective analysis is beneficial. Also, my thoughtis that many articles posted are clearly questionable - they should not be accepted on face value. For exampleGM's immediate post above that you even questioned. I am suppose to believe a Chinese article publishedfrom a Chinese source/publication as "fact" without questioning the motive or truthfulness??? I don't thinksimply cut and pasting such examples further enhance the search for the "truth" or our knowledge thereof.

4. Were China to suffer a serious terrorist attack or attacks at the Olympics (mind you, I am in no position to prevent or mitigate any attacks) it may well result in a strategic realignment of China into an alliance with the US, especially given the unprecedented degree of cooperation between the US and China in securing the Olympics, thus potentially avoiding a future military conflict that otherwise may well develop in the future.

5. China's split with the jihadist terror entities and nation-states would impair their operational abilities, thus improving US national security.

1. I supect our military plans for victory too.2/3. Agreed. Note that we too sold to the pre-Taliban to bleed the Russians. The Chinese govt can be more ruthless in these things because it is a totalitarian state.4/5. Again, because it is a totalitarian state, it can be more ruthless. Does it really need to fear the Chinese Muslims to the point of giving up the joy and "benefit" of helping world-wide Islamic Fascism bleed us?

FWIW I see the Chinese as having some very weak links in their chain:1) its' banking system is a tremendous house of cards,2) due to the one child policy, its demographics are quite unusual. The few will be supporting the many.3) it has turned itself into a toxic dump with utterly unsustainable environmental policies4) apparently there are tremendous social pressures

**Sure, but the US wishes to preserve the post WWII pax americana that has allowed for the economic growth and freedom that has developed in many asian nations. China's envisioned pax sinica would not be nearly so benign.**

2/3. Agreed. Note that we too sold to the pre-Taliban to bleed the Russians. The Chinese govt can be more ruthless in these things because it is a totalitarian state.4/5. Again, because it is a totalitarian state, it can be more ruthless. Does it really need to fear the Chinese Muslims to the point of giving up the joy and "benefit" of helping world-wide Islamic Fascism bleed us?

**The threat from jihadist 5th generation warfare combined with WMD technology holds the potential for the destruction of the nation-state as a viable entity.**

FWIW I see the Chinese as having some very weak links in their chain:1) its' banking system is a tremendous house of cards,2) due to the one child policy, its demographics are quite unusual. The few will be supporting the many.

**It is specifically due to the demographic instability resulting from the one child policy that almost absolutely ensures that China will deliberately engage in a war or wars as a means to correct the gender imbalance. If this is the case, I'd rather have them pointed towards the 'stans rather than India or us.**

3) it has turned itself into a toxic dump with utterly unsustainable environmental policies4) apparently there are tremendous social pressures

Mara Hvistendahl, The New Republic Published: Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Mike Fiala/APAt Tiananmen Square for National Day.Over the last decade, they cropped up in cities throughout China, tucked into raucous markets or along forgotten side streets, their interiors smelling of musty canvas and crammed with bounty for aspiring young soldiers: illicit weapons shops with names like ARMY GOODS STORE and GUNCOOL. For a few thousand yuan--a few hundred dollars--assault rifle-like air guns await in dirty back rooms, along with fatigues, bulletproof vests, kneepads, long underwear, camouflage t-shirts, rucksacks, bandoliers, helmets, helmet sleeves, walkie-talkies, and two-liter CamelBaks. Once outfitted, China's militiamen organize into clubs--Guangzhou Fight Men, Shanghai Band of Brothers, Tianjin Seals--and storm remote lots or abandoned warehouses, shooting at each other with pellets, to stage what they call "war games." The term belies the seriousness participants assign the activity: The more established clubs have dedicated battlegrounds whose surrounding trees are nailed with DANGER signs.

In gun-happy America, this hobby might not rise above the level of eccentricity; but, in China, where most weapons are illegal, it requires a special degree of passion. Beijing periodically cracks down, and clubs sometimes disappear overnight. In a round-up last year, Beijing cops seized 3,400 guns and knives used in war games. Still, the government can't seem to quash the urge among Chinese twentysomethings to unleash a few rounds. The headline on a recent Shanghai Weekly article explains the games' appeal in unusually apt Chinglish: URBAN BATTLE: A VERY MAN ACTIVITY.

The macho violence spurting forth through outlets like war games is a growing trend in Chinese society--and China's one-child policy, in effect since 1979, is partly responsible. The country's three decades of iron-fisted population planning coincided with a binge in sex-selective abortions (Chinese traditionally favor sons, who carry on the family line) and a rise, even as the country developed, in female infant mortality. After almost 30 years of the policy, China now has the largest gender imbalance in the world, with 37 million more men than women and almost 20 percent more newborn boys than girls nationwide.

By the time these newborns reach puberty, war games may seem like a quaint relic. In the 2020s, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Zheng Zhenzhen, estimates in a People's Daily interview that 10 percent of Chinese men will be unable to find wives, which could have a huge impact on Chinese society. Historian David Courtwright suggests in Violent Land that sexually segregated societies in the United States--frontier towns flush with unmarried men, immigrant ghettos in early twentieth-century cities, mining camps--are behind our propensity toward violence. The immigrants and westward migrants who shaped early America, Courtwright says, were largely young single men, who are-- today as well as then--disproportionately responsible for drug abuse, looting, vandalism, and violent crime. A long-term study of Vietnam veterans in 1998 may explain exactly why: The subjects' testosterone levels, which are linked to aggression and violence, dropped when they married and increased when they divorced. Eternally single men, by extension, maintain high levels of testosterone--a recipe for violent civil unrest.

The one-child policy was instituted in an attempt to hamper the wild growth of the Chinese population. But, in the process of plugging one hole, the government may have left another open. The coming boom in restless young men promises to overhaul Chinese society in some potentially scary ways.

Lianyungang, a booming port city in a Jiangsu province economic belt, is ground zero for some of these changes. According to the China Family Planning Association, it's the city in China with the most extreme gender ratio for children under four--163 boys for every 100 girls. One sunny Saturday morning at verdant Cangwu Park, I count six boys and three girls bouncing on the inflatable castle. Near the ice-cream stand are a dozen sticky-faced kids, seven boys and five girls, feeding pigeons. The children running after kites adorned with Olympics mascots and China's Shenzhou VII spaceship: three and two. The drivers of the cheerful little tanks circling an electric track: three and one.

These numbers work fine on the playground, but, for China's many match- making services, they may prove troublesome. At the Good Luck Marriage Introduction Agency, in a town a few hours' drive west from Liangyungang, two whiteboards mounted on the wall advertise the age, height, and income of available singles. On the day I visit, founder Tao Hui, a fortysomething woman with a bouffant, is watching soap operas in her sweatpants. She hasn't felt the shortage yet, she says. On the whiteboards, a few dozen nameless men line up nicely to a few dozen nameless women. For now, many in the early wave of surplus men are marrying younger women.

"We'll see real problems in eight or ten years," Tao predicts. Her 17-year- old son, she assures me, has good prospects. But she already turns away a lot of single males from outlying villages with no money or education. "If they're ugly and can't find work, there's nothing I can do. No one wants them."

Preliminary returns from the first generation of population-controlled kids suggest how all those unwanted men might fill up their time. Over the past decade, as the boys hit adolescence, the country's youth crime rate more than doubled. In December, Chinese Society of Juvenile Delinquency Research Deputy Secretary General Liu Guiming told a Beijing seminar that today's teens were committing crimes "without specific motives, often without forethought."

The Chinese government--which, policy-making blunders aside, hardly wants a population of hopeless, volatile men under its rule--has been vainly trying to undo the damage. At a symposium on the policy last August, family-planning commission head Zhang Weiqing said the gender ratio harbors a "hidden threat to social stability." In February, officials publicly debated the timeline for phasing out stringent population planning targets, citing the gender ratio along with a rapidly aging population. "In the past, everyone thought we didn't have a problem," says Gu Baochang, a demographer at Renmin University in Beijing. "Now they're starting to pay attention."

In the meantime, the government is adopting a softer tone in its propaganda. The red characters painted on village walls throughout the countryside have evolved from the 1980s slogan YOU BEAT IT OUT! YOU CAN MAKE IT FALL OUT! YOU CAN ABORT IT! BUT YOU CANNOT GIVE BIRTH TO IT! Now they read: IMPLEMENT FAMILY PLANNING FOR THE GOOD OF ALL CITIZENS. And, recently, the government added BOYS AND GIRLS ARE BOTH TREASURES. In 2003, it unveiled the Care For Girls program, which gives stipends to parents of girls in some provinces.

But, as Chinese couples make more money, fertility is naturally declining-- meaning that today's bachelors will form an even larger proportion of China's future population than officials expect. Wang Feng, a sociologist at the University of California-Irvine who's part of a group of scholars advocating phasing out the one-child policy, says the outlook is grim: "Each successive birth cohort is going to be smaller. When younger cohorts get smaller, you have fewer females. It's a double whammy."

Online, many Chinese are worried--about the safety of their daughters, the marriage prospects of their sons. Others--presumably the boys themselves--meet the problem with ominous boasts. As one predicted last year on the portal Tianya: "Our national ability to pick up chicks will reach heights unparalleled in human history."

And still others are coming up with more practical outlets to exploit China's new cadre of unstable young bachelors. Two years ago in Nanjing, Jiangsu's capital, businessman Wu Gang opened the Rising Sun Anger Release Bar in a cheap hotel near the bank of the Yangtze River. The bar featured staples of Chinese entertainment like big-screen karaoke and plates of sunflower seeds but also a central catwalk where, for 100 yuan ($15) per minute, customers paid to assault the waiters, single young migrants from poorer cities to the north. If a customer preferred, his victim would dress in drag. Men "are under too much pressure," Wu explained to me one day, as the waiters high-kicked Pepsi bottles in the storeroom. "They need a way to release it."

Close on the heels of the latest sham election in Zimbabwe, the International Criminal Court announced last week that it is seeking the arrest of the president of Sudan on charges of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. As Africa notches up more failures on the long road out of colonialism, a new pseudo-colonial power--China--is busily engaged in getting exactly what it wants out of the continent. The implications for the kind of political and economic evolution likely to unfold in Africa are significant.

Until about 20 years ago, China's interest in Africa consisted mainly of encouraging Marxist revolutionary factions. Lately, however, that interest has taken a decidedly economic turn. China is in the market for most of Africa's products and is selling its own there as well. Once a major oil exporter, China became a net importer of oil in 1993 and is now dependent on imports for half its oil and natural gas. To meet this need, it has diversified its sources, in particular making deals with most of Africa's oil-producing states.

Just in the past three years, Beijing has signed energy deals with Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, Gabon, and Sudan. Its investment in Sudan's pipeline and refinery infrastructure, valued at between $3 billion and $5 billion, is mind-boggling in such a poor country, but it is not unusual for the energy industry. China bought a stake in a Nigerian offshore field two years ago for $2.5 billion and promised to invest the same amount in further exploration and development.

China has huge investments in Algeria, with whose government it is also cooperating on the development of nuclear energy, and Angola, which this spring overtook Nigeria as the continent's largest producer of oil.

Chinese investment in Africa took off exponentially in the early 1990s. So did China-Africa trade. According to the Nigerian economist Adama Gaye, trade between China and Africa reached the $10 billion mark in 2000 and is likely to reach $55 billion this year. If it reaches $100 billion in 2010, as Gaye thinks likely, it will surpass both American and French trade with Africa. The continent's other major trading partners are India (growing) and Britain (not growing).

Significantly, Nigeria's then-president Olusegun Obasanjo, once a U.S. favorite, said last year that this would be the Chinese century, and he encouraged Africans to stay with the leader. There is no question China's mix of authoritarianism and rapid economic development is tempting to states whose political and economic institutions are fragile and whose relations with the liberal West tend to be ambivalent.

Not that the United States has been absent from African affairs. On the contrary, the Bush administration has supported huge increases in African exports to the United States (through the tariff-ending Africa Growth Opportunity Act) and U.S. investments in Africa (through the State Department's Overseas Private Investment Corporation), as well as debt relief initiatives, development aid in agriculture, and programs to combat disease and keep children in school. The Bush administration has encouraged African development more seriously than any of its predecessors, and it has insisted that prosperity is more likely to endure if accompanied by the spread of the institutions that sustain free societies, rather than the authoritarian model China promotes.

Which will be the ascendant influence? Chinese consumer goods are becoming ubiquitous in Africa, as elsewhere. "Made in China" clothes, personal and commercial vehicles, and electronics are widely available, and Chinese fast-food is even catching on. High level trade and investment delegations on multi-country tours are almost banal, while the annual "China-Africa Forums" are becoming more important in terms of deal-making than the Francophonie summits that France sponsors. Chinese assistance includes the deployment of thousands of doctors to fight tropical and infectious diseases.

The Chinese contribute hospitals, schools, and roads--they are building the trans-Maghreb highway across Algeria, for example, on which travelers ride in Chinese-assembled buses. Although as recently as a few years back Peugeot was the dominant car in West Africa by far, Japan's Toyota and Korea's Hyundai, both assembled in China, and China's own Chery Automobile will soon overtake it.

Prestige follows power. "Confucian Centers" are promoting Chinese language study in 16 countries, while "Confucian Institutes" in partnership with local universities have been established for advanced study of language and management in Sudan, Zimbabwe, Kenya, and South Africa. Scholarships are offered for university study in China. Chinese radio broadcasts in several languages compete with the popular programs of the Voice of America, the BBC, and RFI.

China's military role on the continent has grown in importance. Equipment and advisers have been sent to Congo (Kinshasa) and Angola, and there were reports in 2003 that firms fronting for the People's Liberation Army were smuggling weapons to Sierra Leone and Liberia during those small West African countries' catastrophic diamond wars, into which Ivory Coast, beset by its own north-south sectional and tribal problems, was drawn.

China's diplomatic support for the regime in Khartoum is well known as a result of Western efforts to broker peace among the many contending Sudanese clans and tribes. Lately Beijing, concerned to avoid criticism of its embrace of brutal regimes in the run-up to the Olympic Games, has pressured Sudan to cooperate with the deployment of a U.N.-African Union force to protect people in the war-torn Darfur province from tribal militias, some of which Khartoum has armed and supported.

It is worth keeping in mind, however, that civil wars have raged in Sudan practically without interruption since independence in 1956, and China, building its influence in the country, made no effort to stop them. Beijing's official position has been that the "situation in Sudan is an internal affair," as one Chinese foreign minister said. Although wars between the Arab north and the black south officially ended in 2005, the government of Omar al-Bashir is showing little inclination to respect the share-the-oil part of the U.S.-brokered peace agreement. Khartoum has spent some of its revenue from oil on Chinese arms, reinforced by Chinese military personnel.

Meanwhile, the violence in Darfur, which began with the revolt of Muslim tribes in the western province and led to brutal counterinsurgency campaigns, recently blew back into Khartoum. One of the many Darfuri armed groups sent a motorized column into Sudan's capital, where it was decimated--quite possibly with direct Chinese help. J. Peter Pham, a professor at James Madison University and a fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies who reported last year on the Chinese military association with Sudan, notes that when you provide a regime with $100 million worth of supersonic fighter jets, you must really intend for that regime to survive.

Darfur crisis watchers and activists are well aware that the people they are trying to protect in that disaster zone (a quarter of a million killed, two million displaced) are attacked from the air as well as on the ground. Meanwhile, a congressionally mandated report dated October 2006 had already put at anywhere from 4,000 to 10,000 the number of Chinese soldiers in Sudan, lightly disguised as petroleum engineers and construction workers.

Sudan's complexities, however, are unlikely to becloud China's keen sense of its own interests. In the Horn of Africa, for example, Pham points out China has sold a billion dollars' worth of arms to both sides in one of the continent's many underreported conflicts, the one between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Beijing bet heavily on Sudan's Omar al-Bashir, but if or when the southerners go back to the hills to fight for their independence (and their oil), it may well be with arms supplied by China. Until then, Bashir's indictment by the International Criminal Court can only strengthen the Chinese hand to the degree it increases the president's diplomatic isolation.

Arms, too--specifically a shipment of three million AK-47 rounds, rocket-propelled grenades, and mortars--are at the center of the latest episode in the long and warm relationship between China and Zimbabwe. The shipment, on the An Yue Jiang last April, was by no means unusual, but dockworkers in Durban, South Africa, refused to unload it for the overland part of its journey.

The good relations between South Africa and Zimbabwe have been strained by the crazy rule of Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party, which has wrecked a once-flourishing economy, murdered opposition activists, shut down a vigorous independent press, and now is forcing tens of thousands of refugees across the border into Botswana and South Africa, leading to deadly riots. Under these conditions, sending arms right in the middle of a presidential election that the ruling clique was determined to brazen out (Mugabe openly stated he would not allow the opposition Movement for Democratic Change to come to power) strained even the old-comrade ties that have made South African president Thabo Mbeki reluctant to criticize Mugabe.

It is of course quite possible that the days of strongmen like Mugabe are numbered anyway. In the meantime, however, the An Yue Jiang's cargo reportedly arrived safe and sound in Harare, having transited through Mozambique. Will Chinese president Hu Jintao give some stern advice to Mugabe, as he did in June to the Sudanese vice president?

During violence in Kenya last winter sparked by flawed elections, China's People's Daily (the organ of the ruling party) editorialized that "Western-style democracy is not suited for Africa." However, passing through Washington last month, Kenya's prime minister, Raila Odinga, sharply criticized Mugabe and called free elections imperative in Zimbabwe.

If an American presidential candidate did the same--if, without injecting himself into Zimbabwe's or Sudan's or any other country's internal politics, Barack Obama or John McCain made it clear the United States dislikes the kinds of political regimes China promotes and enables--Africans would surely take note. Indeed, in a campaign year unlike any previous one, Americans themselves might notice.

4. Were China to suffer a serious terrorist attack or attacks at the Olympics (mind you, I am in no position to prevent or mitigate any attacks) it may well result in a strategic realignment of China into an alliance with the US, especially given the unprecedented degree of cooperation between the US and China in securing the Olympics, thus potentially avoiding a future military conflict that otherwise may well develop in the future.

5. China's split with the jihadist terror entities and nation-states would impair their operational abilities, thus improving US national security.

GM; not that you need my accolades or want my kudos but your above piece is very well put together. Whether I agree or not (I do) your point is well made, succinct, with good references, a simple explanation and good personal analysis. Further cut and pastes ties in to you analysis therefore I understand yours/Marc's point that comment is not always necessary.

On a personal note, I apologize for my behavior. Sometimes I get a bit passionate, but that is no excuse.

You make very good points, but as best as I can tell still do not reach my central doubt about your hypothesis-- can Islamic Fascism really become a big enough threat to internal Chinese control to the piont wherein it will suit Chinese govt purposes to cease and desist the activities you so well describe in order to ally with the US against Islamic Fascism? Just what is it that we can offer them?

I'm thinking the solution will include (in no particular order)

a) strengthening the dollar; higher interest rates, lower corporate tax rateb) price stability, reducing govt meddling in the economyc) allow the market to do its work in responding to higher energy pricesd) eliminating/reducing taxes on alternative forms of energyf) drilling for oilg) I know some like nuclear, but ever since the "experts" here in CA tried building a reactor on an earth quake fault I have a hard time trusting themh) cultural sedition

SummaryThe Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) — another name for China’s Islamic Party of East Turkistan militant group — has claimed responsibility for the July 21 bus bombings in Yunnan and several other incidents around the country. The group has also said militants are trained and deployed to attack critical targets in major Chinese cities during the Olympics. The claims of responsibility appear exaggerated, but the threat TIP poses cannot be ignored.

AnalysisThe Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) — another name for the Islamic Party of East Turkistan (ETIM) — has issued a video claiming responsibility for the July 21 bus bombings in Yunnan as well as several other incidents across China in recent months. The spokesman for the TIP, who refers to himself as Commander Seyfullah, also warned that TIP militants were trained and deployed to hit at critical targets in central cities during the Olympics. While the claims of responsibility appear exaggerated, the potential threat to transportation infrastructure, particularly in cities other than Beijing, cannot be brushed aside.

Over the past year, TIP has expanded its presence on the Internet, issuing videos calling for a jihad by Uighurs from China’s western Xinjiang province and highlighting training exercises. One video showed the execution of at least three ethnic Chinese. In addition, TIP has profiled extensively both the history of the movement (which at times has been called ETIM — a name the Chinese use when talking about most militant actions in Xinjiang and a group the United States added to its list of foreign terrorist organizations) and the former leader of ETIM, Hasan Mahsum, who was killed in Pakistan in 2003.

Following Mahsum’s death, ETIM fractured, its members moving into hiding, primarily in Afghanistan. Since that time, a successor movement has been pulling together, linked to Uzbek and other foreign militants operating in the Pakistan-Afghanistan frontier. More recently, the TIP has begun issuing videos — some dedicated to Mahsum, others showing training operations — and, in an April video, the group began issuing warnings to China that they would attack the Olympics. This most recent video follows up on that, saying that China has effectively run out of time, and that the group’s leader, Abdul Haq, has ordered militants to begin striking in central China. Haq was one of the key members of the early ETIM group, working with Mahsum in Afghanistan in training Uighur militants in 2001.

China has long warned that ETIM posed a critical threat to the Olympics. The recent uptick in incidents in China — from the March airline incident to the recent bus fire in Shanghai and the double bus bombing in Yunnan — has raised concerns if not about a coordinated effort to target the Chinese state, at least about China’s transportation infrastructure.

ETIM has a history of transportation infrastructure attacks (as does the broader al Qaeda movement), and there have been quiet rumors from China — particularly in Shanghai — in recent months that suspicious Central and South Asians (including Kazakhs) were seen monitoring infrastructure in Chinese cities, the implication being that they were carrying out pre-operational surveillance for potential attacks. Chinese authorities have also reported that they found plans for attacks against Olympic athletes, tourists and various military and civilian infrastructure during raids of alleged ETIM camps in western China earlier this year.

The claims in the latest TIP video seem a bit exaggerated — a common tactic for militants seeking to increase attention and embellish their own image. There is some suspicion that the videos are part of a psychological operation, by either the Chinese government to further justify security sweeps or by foreign agents to raise additional fears in Beijing. Chinese authorities also recently said they had wrapped up a threat in Shanghai to the Olympics. However, the government has yet to offer an explanation for the bus attack in Shanghai (and a hoax bomb-call for a major market at around the same time), and the local government in Yunnan has already tripled the initial reward for information leading to the arrest of the culprits behind the bus bombings in Kunming. Yunnan borders Southeast Asia, and the mountain paths offer a relatively easy route for discreet entry into and out of China should the militants have come from outside.

While Seyfullah’s claims appear greater than reality, they cannot be entirely dismissed, nor can the potential for further transportation infrastructure attacks against China. As Stratfor has cautioned previously, attacks against buses, trains and even airlines are not unlikely, particularly outside of Beijing. Shanghai in particular has seen a lot of unusual activity in recent months that may be a signal that operations are being planned or scoped out in the city. While TIP/ETIM does not pose a strategic threat to the Chinese state, such transportation attacks are well within its scope of capabilities.

You make very good points, but as best as I can tell still do not reach my central doubt about your hypothesis-- can Islamic Fascism really become a big enough threat to internal Chinese control to the piont wherein it will suit Chinese govt purposes to cease and desist the activities you so well describe in order to ally with the US against Islamic Fascism? Just what is it that we can offer them?

**If China and the US are working together to the degree that we have NEST there, and the first letter being "Nuclear" in the NEST acronym, then there is most likely good intel that has both governments very worried. Modern China has been described as "An ocean of gasoline just waiting for a spark". A nuclear detonation would certainly provide more than enough.

Imagine for a moment there was a nuclear weapon detonated in China. Even if not one victim was American, the impact would shake us and the rest of the world to a degree never seen before. Think of all the ships leaving Chinese ports daily with cargo containers headed for ports like Long Beach, CA. Keep in mind al qaeda's stealth navy and their M.O. of using cargo containers for human smuggling. Anyone think global trade wouldn't rapidly grind to a halt? Rather than 9/11 shutting down the airlines, this would crash the global trade infrastructure. China would very rapidly fracture and now we have to wonder which PLA neo-warlord has China's nukes under control. Does this spur N. Korea into a paniced invasion of the south or does the NorK state crumble, resulting in an epic humanitarian crisis along with China's chaos? What other problem cascade from this?

I know this much, our current housing/banking crisis would pale in comparison to the economic crisis that would stem from such a scenario.**

I'm thinking the solution will include (in no particular order)

a) strengthening the dollar; higher interest rates, lower corporate tax rateb) price stability, reducing govt meddling in the economyc) allow the market to do its work in responding to higher energy pricesd) eliminating/reducing taxes on alternative forms of energyf) drilling for oilg) I know some like nuclear, but ever since the "experts" here in CA tried building a reactor on an earth quake fault I have a hard time trusting themh) cultural sedition

**If you've seen the Christmas sales in Shanghai in December as Santa Claus stands on the sidewalk in front of McDonald's and Starbucks as Nike wearing teens clad in NBA team shirts walk by as they listen to Mandarin hip-hop on I-pods, well then we're doing well in that area.**

Plausible I suppose, but in that it has not been done here in the US or Europe, do you think the Chinese Muslim Fascists have the ability to go nuke? My sense of things is that they are at a lower level.

My sense of things is that playing up the Isalmo-fascist issue becomes a way for China to neutralize the usual US complaints and bleatings when they are their usual oppressive totalitarian selves.

Plausible I suppose, but in that it has not been done here in the US or Europe, do you think the Chinese Muslim Fascists have the ability to go nuke? My sense of things is that they are at a lower level.

**Under most circumstances, I'd tend to agree. Bill Gertz disclosing NEST's presence strikes me as a huge story that seems to have slid under the radar and alters my assessment. Gertz has great sourcing from the nat'l security structure and I don't recall him ever being substantially wrong on a story like this. NEST couldn't be there without the approval from the highest levels of the USG and I can't see Washington willing to take this risk without very good reason. I very much doubt that ETIM has it's own nuclear capability. Still, western China borders the loose nuke center of the universe.**

My sense of things is that playing up the Isalmo-fascist issue becomes a way for China to neutralize the usual US complaints and bleatings when they are their usual oppressive totalitarian selves.

**True, China seized on "terrorism" as a cover for business as usual right after 9/11. The fact that China is openly discussing terror threats to the Olympics to the degree it is strikes me as significant. Admitting there is a serious threat harms China's "face" at a time when the whole world is watching. The whole motivation for hosting the Olympics is to present the "new China" and promote it's strength and modernity. Having to admit to a serious threat to internal security at this time makes the power structure in Beijing very unhappy. Again, something not done lightly.

One other aspect to keep in mind. AQ has a history of grafting it's global jihad onto muslim struggles that were originally non-religious, ethno-nationalistic in origin. I'd cite the "Alqaeda-ization" of the Chechen independence movement in the 90's. I'm willing to bet this is a factor in what is occurring with the ETIM today. Keep in mind that the terrorists that hit Beslan were majority Chechen, but included arabs recruited for the jihad operation.**

A MILITANT Islamic group has threatened to attack the Beijing Olympics with suicide bombers and biological weapons and has claimed responsibility for a string of fatal bombings and explosions in China over recent weeks.

In a video released by IntelCenter, a terrorism monitoring group, a bearded man identified as “Commander Seyfullah” is seen reading a declaration of jihad against the Olympics and warns athletes and spectators, “especially Muslims”, to stay away.

It was issued by a group calling itself the Turkestan Islamic party. The group may be allied with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement – designated a terrorist organisation by the US, China and several other countries – which seeks independence for the Muslim Uighur people of China’s far west province of Xinjiang, which Uighur separatists call East Turkestan.

“Commander Seyfullah” said the group was responsible for three bombs last week on buses in the city of Kunming, which killed two people, and for two bus bombings on May 21 in Shanghai, which killed three.

The group said it also bombed a plastics factory in southern China and claimed involvement in an attack on police in the city of Wenzhou using explosives on a tractor, both on July 17.

Some of these incidents had been attributed to criminals, local grievances or accidents.

IntelCenter said that in an earlier five-page communiqué the group had promised to unleash suicide bombers against the Olympics and told Muslims that the use of biological weapons would be religiously justified.

The Chinese authorities have mobilised more than 100,000 troops and police to guard the Olympics and have imposed draconian security restrictions in every city where events will take place.

WASHINGTON (AFP) — A Chinese Muslim separatist group's threats to launch attacks during the Beijing Olympics are credible, a US expert said Saturday, after the group claimed credit for several recent bus bombings in China.Although Chinese officials earlier Saturday denied that the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) was behind the bus bombings in Shanghai, IntelCenter director Ben Venzke pointed to a TIP video showing how to make a truck bomb as evidence that the group has the capacity for serious attacks."At this point in time we believe that, based on the TIP's demonstrated ability to conduct bombings and the apparent opportunity TIP believes the Olympic Games presents in terms of targeting and striking a blow to China, that the threat is credible and should be taken seriously," Venzke said.Venzke, whose company monitors extremist threats around the world for private clients, on Friday released a transcript of TIP's latest video claiming credit for a pair of bus blasts that killed two people Monday in Yunnan province, and a bus explosion in Shanghai in May that killed three.Chinese officials quickly rejected the claim, denying that TIP, an ethnic Uighur group which seeks to break off part of China's heavily Muslim Xinjiang province into an independent East Turkestan homeland, had caused the explosions."We have noticed media reports about the claims, but so far no evidence has been found to indicate the explosions were connected with terrorists and their attacks, or with the Beijing Olympics," a Yunnan public security official was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua news agency."The (May 5) blast was indeed deliberate but had nothing to do with terrorist attacks," Cheng Jiulong, deputy head of Shanghai police, told Xinhua.But Venzke says the threat is likely real."Questions remain as to exactly what the TIP capabilities are in the eight cities they have threatened and whether the group has the ability to conduct a sustained campaign during the Games or one or two large-scale attacks."According to global intelligence analysts Stratfor, TIP is another name for the ethnic Uighur Islamic Party of East Turkestan (ETIM), a group labelled a terrorist organization by both the United States and China.In the video released this week and dated July 23, TIP leader Commander Seyfullah warned China of more explosions to come."Our aim is to target the most critical points related to the Olympics. We will try to attack Chinese central cities severely using the tactics that have never been employed," he continued."While Seyfullah's claims appear greater than reality, they cannot be entirely dismissed, nor can the potential for further transportation infrastructure attacks against China," Stratfor said in an analysis on its website.TIP's video says the group is willing to use biological weapons in an attack, and Venzke said that specific threat cannot be discounted. But, he added, TIP so far lacks a "demonstrated capability" to use biological weapons.IntelCenter said it had a video made by TIP showing how to wire a truck with a bomb and another showing a suicide bomber preparing for an attack.Venzke also noted that senior Al-Qaeda figure Ayman al-Zawahiri has made reference several times to the Uighurs' fight for an East Turkestan homeland"While not yet on the level of attention focused on places like Somalia, Sudan, Algeria and other major theaters, al-Zawahiri's references do firmly place the jihadi efforts in East Turkistan in the mix of important jihadi fronts," Venzke said.

"In the video released this week and dated July 23, TIP leader Commander Seyfullah warned China of more explosions to come."Our aim is to target the most critical points related to the Olympics. We will try to attack Chinese central cities severely using the tactics that have never been employed," he continued"

**Rather than a nuke, this makes me think of radiological dispersal devices (dirty bombs). Bioweapons seem much less likely, despite having been specifically mentioned by "Commander Seyfullah".

Question: Are the bombings in India part of an "Asian campaign" by al qaeda, having their losses in Iraq now entering global consciousness?**

Just over a week before the Beijing Olympics, a militant Islamic group's claims of responsibility for bombings in China have fueled unease about security. The government has assured its people and the Olympic community that heavy security will ensure a secure games.

But its clampdown has smothered a broad array of groups, many with grievances against the government but without a history of violence.

Among the potential troublemakers Chinese security specialists have identified are Tibetan separatists, who staged occasionally violent protests last spring; members of the banned Falun Gong spiritual movement and unemployed workers.

Stirring the latest concerns were videotaped threats purporting to be from an Islamic militant group. They surfaced last week in the name of the Turkistan Islamic Party — a group Chinese and Western terrorism experts say is an offshoot of a secessionist group from China's Central Asian frontier with ties to al-Qaida.

In it, hooded men stood in camouflage fatigues with Kalashnikovs and claimed responsibility for explosions in four cities in Western China in recent months, including two bus bombings last week in Kunming city that authorities said killed two people and injured 14.

One militant, identified by the Washington-based monitoring group IntelCenter as commander Seyfullah, warned athletes and spectators "particularly the Muslims" to stay away.

"Our aim is to target the most critical points related to the Olympics. We will try to attack Chinese central cities severely using the tactics that have never been employed," he said.

Chinese police immediately played down the threat, saying the explosions in Chinese cities claimed by the group were not the work of terrorists.

Still Beijing is being emptied of political critics, underground Christian organizers and ordinary Chinese who come to the capital to protest local government injustices.

Plainclothes security agents surprised rights campaigner Hou Wenzhuo at a cafe on May 30, putting a hood over her head and holding her in an undisclosed detention center for 17 days.

Among their chief concerns during interrogations, she said, were plans for a "human rights torch relay" organized by an exiled Tiananmen Square democracy movement figure and whether Chinese at home might get involved.

"The government is worried that this 'human rights torch' will detract attention from China" and the Olympics, Hou said. "They didn't beat me, but there are different kinds of intimidation."

Officials in charge of security have denied they are rounding up peaceful critics and have defended their actions as necessary, given global terrorism's scope and the publicity attacking the Olympics would bring.

To squelch any threat, Chinese leaders are mobilizing an army of security many times greater than previous Olympics — 110,000 police, riot squads and special forces, augmented by more than 300,000 Olympic volunteers and neighborhood watch members.

"Through all kinds of efforts and by relying on the support and cooperation from the international society and the general public, we are confident we can deal with all the threats and risks and challenges," Liu Shaowu, director of security for the Beijing Olympics organizing committee, said last week.

President Hu Jintao told fellow communist leaders over the weekend that "the task of hosting a safe Olympic Games is as heavy as Mount Tai and everyone shares the responsibility."

The hyper-charged security, however, has put some Western governments on edge, caught between a desire to cooperate on terrorism threats and concern about aiding the policing of peaceful dissent. U.S. and other European governments complain they have offered information but that Chinese police give little in return.

"The Chinese definition of security threat is pretty broad, and in the context of the Olympics, it encompasses anyone who might seek to 'disrupt' the games," Drew Thompson, director of China studies at the Nixon Center in Washington, said in an e-mail.

For the communist regime, "it's not about terrorism. It's about security," said one Western diplomat, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the media. "It's the current reason for expanding the entire scope of the police state."

Chinese and Western terrorism experts agree the threat from terrorist groups, particularly of the militant Islamic stripe, is real. Hardly a month has passed this year without the government reporting it had disrupted a terrorist plot. But with so much effort focused on Beijing, terrorists may be seeking more vulnerable targets.

"The chances of attacks on Olympic areas are very unlikely," said Rohan Gunaratna of the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore. "But there could be attacks elsewhere in the run-up to the Olympics to spoil the mood of celebration."

Li Wei, director of the Center for Counterterrorism Studies, which has ties to China's spy agency, said his center has pinpointed five distinct threats: international terrorist groups like al-Qaida, the domestic version fighting to end Chinese rule in far western Xinjiang province, Tibetan separatists, the Falun Gong spiritual movement and ordinary people with grievances against the government or society.

While Li said the Tibetans and Falun Gong are not known for violence, radicals in their midst might lash out. Followers of Falun Gong, a meditation practice suppressed nearly a decade ago after drawing millions of followers, might turn to self-immolation, poisonings and other retaliatory acts if ordered by their leader, believed in hiding in the U.S., he said.

Groups fighting to end Chinese rule in Xinjiang, or what some Muslims call East Turkistan, are singled out as the most likely threat. A rebellion by the indigenous Muslim Turkic people, the Uighurs, has simmered for decades, with some fighting in neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan.

One group, the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, was based in Afghanistan before the U.S. invasion and is listed as a terrorist organization by the United States. After its leader was killed in 2003, members reorganized into similar groups, including the Turkistan Islamic Party, and received training from al-Qaida in Pakistan's tribal area abutting Afghanistan, said Gunaratna and other terrorism experts.

Gunaratna estimates this hard core numbers around 100. Aside from its recent videotaped threat, the Turkistan Islamic Party released a statement in April calling for biological weapons attacks against China and has posted an Internet video guide on assembling a truck bomb, the IntelCenter said.

Commander Seyfullah's claim to have carried out recent explosions has raised doubts about the group's reach.

Police, cited by Xinhua, said the bus explosion in Shanghai in which three people died was caused by an oil fire and the Wenzhou explosion by a debt-ridden gambler, while there's no evidence to connect the Kunming bus bombings to terrorism.

"Although the Turkistan Islamic Party claimed that they were responsible, I personally think that it's all bluff and bluster," said Li, the counterterrorism expert.

Those explosions, Li and others said, were most likely caused by "lone wolves" — disgruntled individuals and the hardest threat to guard against. Li pointed to the bombing in a park at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics that killed one and injured 111 and was found to be the work of an anti-government extremist.

Two men rammed a truck into a clutch of jogging policemen and tossed explosives, killing 16 officers Monday, state media said, in an attack in a restive province of western China just days before the Beijing Olympics, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.

Though it happened on the far side of the country — near the Afghan-Pakistan border — the attack came as security forces were on alert for protests or any disruptions during the Games, which open Friday. It was among the deadliest and most brazen attacks in years in Xinjiang province, site of a sporadically violent rebellion by local Muslims against Chinese rule.

About 20 people upset at having been evicted from their homes staged a brief demonstration near Tiananmen Square, Beijing's heavily guarded political center. Uniformed police quickly surrounded the group until members of a neighborhood committee came and pulled the protesters away, scuffling with some.

In the Xinjiang attack, the two men drove a dump truck into the group of border patrol police officers as they passed the Yiquan Hotel during a routine 8 a.m. jog in the city of Kashgar, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

After the truck hit an electrical pole, the pair jumped out, ignited homemade explosives and "also hacked the policemen with knives," Xinhua said.

Fourteen died on the spot and two others en route to a hospital, and at least 16 officers were wounded, Xinhua said.

Police arrested the two attackers, one of whom was injured in the leg, the report said.

Authorities closed off streets, sealed the Nationalities Hospital, down the street from the explosion, and ordered people to stay inside, said a man answering phones at the hospital duty office.

Local government officials declined comment Monday. An officer in the district police department said an investigation was launched.

Kashgar, or Kashi in Chinese, is a tourist city that was once an oasis trading center on the Silk Road caravan routes and lies 80 miles from the border with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan. Its mountainous, remote environs have allegedly provided cover for terrorist training camps, one of which Chinese police raided early last year.

Chinese security forces have been on edge for months, citing a number of foiled plots by Muslim separatists and a series of bombings around China in the run-up to the Olympics. Last week, a senior military commander said radical Muslims who are fighting for what they call an independent East Turkistan in Xinjiang posed the single greatest threat to the games.

A spokesman for Beijing's Olympic organizing committee said he did not have enough information to comment on the bombings. But he said security arrangements were being increased around the Olympic venues.

"We've made preparations for all possible threats," the spokesman, Sun Weide, told reporters. "We believe, with the support of the government, with the help of the international community, we have the confidence and the ability to host a safe and secure Olympic Games."

A Chinese counterterrorism expert, Li Wei of the China Institute for Contemporary International Relations in Beijing, said the attack was likely the work of local sympathizers, rather than trained terrorists who sneaked across the border into China.

Xinhua said that Xinjiang's police department earlier received intelligence reports about possible terrorist attacks between Aug. 1 and 8 by the East Turkistan Islamic Movement. The movement is the name of a group that China and the U.S. say is a terrorist organization, but Chinese authorities often use the label for a broad number of violent separatist groups.

In Xinjiang, a local Turkic Muslim people, the Uighurs (WEE'-gurs), have chafed under Chinese rule, fully imposed after the communists took power nearly 60 years ago. Occasionally violent attacks in the 1990s brought an intense response from Beijing, which has stationed crack paramilitary units in the area and clamped down on unregistered mosques and religious schools that officials said were inciting militant action.

Uighurs have complained that the suppression has aggravated tensions in Xinjiang, making Uighurs feel even more threatened by an influx of Chinese and driving some to flee to Pakistan and other areas where they then have readier access to extremist ideologies.

One militant group, the Turkistan Islamic Party, pledged in a video that surfaced on the Internet last month to "target the most critical points related to the Olympics." The group is believed to be based across the border in Pakistan, with some of its core members having received training from al-Qaida and the Pakistani Taliban, according to terrorism experts.

Terrorism analysts and Chinese authorities, however, have said that with more than 100,000 soldiers and police guarding Beijing and other Olympic co-host cities, terrorists were more likely to attack less-protected areas.