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NFL Picks

NFL Week 14 Picks: Wise Guy Plays & Public Leans

In Week 14, this skilled handicapper will once again track the NFL odds looking for an angle to play & a bet to cash. Last week, the sharps nailed both their NFL picks, while the strictly public leans flamed miserably.

Steelers (+4 to +3) vs. Bengals
Tough to say that there is any wise guy money being bet on the Steelers as the NFL odds have only decreased by a point but any time the number moves off of a four and onto a three then it is worth watching. Those are both critical numbers in the NFL and if this drops below a field goal then you don't need a map to know where this money is coming from and what kind of cappers are doing the moving. As of this moment we will surmise this is public money on a live road dog. But if it does indeed go below three then we've got the wise guys making their move.

Free NFL Picks: Public on the Steelers

Colts (-3 to -4) vs. Browns
The Colts are a square's delight here as they take on an uninspiring Browns' team that is in the midst of a quarterback controversy with Johnny Football frothing at the mouth to take the reins. Indianapolis looked impressive last week while Cleveland got manhandled on the road by the Bills. It's no wonder Cleveland has been cast as a home dog here by the NFL odds makers and it looks almost too easy to bet the Colts. The public loves easy.

Free NFL Picks: Public on the Colts

Texans (-4 to -7) vs. Jaguars
This is another game that has a lousy home team getting points. The problem here is that you just knew the public would push this number beyond the opening NFL odds of Houston -4 but it is has rocketed to Houston - 7 (+115) in offshore shops like 5Dimes.com. I am still not willing to proclaim there is an invisible wise guy hand in all of this. If the Texans get bet to beyond seven then I am convinced that the sharps are fading the Jags big time. But for now, this smells like public action.

Free NFL Picks: Public on the Texans

Chiefs (+1 ½ to -1) vs. Cardinals
This has the markings of sharp action on the Chiefs. The spread is somewhat negligible as few games are decided by a point (I know you're the one who took a bad beat when your team lost by a point and failed to cover) but let's not forget that KC got beat up at home by the Broncos last week so there shouldn't be sweeping sentiment that they looked good enough last week to drive that same bus this week.

Conversely, the Cardinals took a loss on the road as they soared into Atlanta as 1 ½ point road favorites and flew out with a notch in the loss column. I don't see the public fading Arizona nor do I see the Chiefs as a necessarily attractive road favorite for all the squares who routinely lean towards big favorites whether they are home or on the road. This looks like the work of the sharps.

Free NFL Picks: Wise Guys on the Chiefs

Falcons vs. Packers (-10 ½ to -13)
The square logic is thus: Packers beat the Patriots last week 26-21 and New England is way freakin' better than the f****'in Falcons so I'm on Green Bay big time! Have another beer and a shot Joe Q. Public. This one reeks of public action and it might be advisable to just fade the squares and bet the Dirty Birds getting so many points from the publically driven NFL odds.