Overthrow Gadhafi in 90 Days: Just Add Mercs, Cash

Updated March 26, 8:40 a.m.

The world’s worried about mercenaries in Libya helping Moammar Gadhafi snuff out the Libyan revolution. But what if — what if — the rebels tapped the expanding world of private security to turn them from a ragtag, Red Dawn-esque group of irregulars into a proper military?

No, we haven’t had any sightings of Blackwater founder Erik Prince in Benghazi. But at least some Libyan opposition members don’t think it’s so crazy to hire their own auxiliaries. NBC’s Richard Engel reported on the Rachel Maddow Show on Wednesday that he’d interviewed rebels who’d be grateful for the Blackwaters of the world to offer their services. Erik, call your travel agent!

So, far-fetched as it might be, what would a mercenary campaign on behalf of the Libyan rebels look like? It’d be a training effort, most likely. And it might very well be illegal — so the company willing to take on the deal can probably drive a hard bargain, reaping millions. No risk, no reward, right?

As of now, we’ve been unable to turn up examples of actual merc firms offering their wares to the rebels. Maybe that’s because the United Nations placed an arms-n’-mercenaries embargo on Libya, currently enforced by NATO ships. But some veterans of the private security industry don’t mind sketching out their suggestions for what a hypothetical merc mission to Benghazi might look like.

Here’s the plan from one industry vet who requested anonymity. A team of between 50 and 100 security contractors would make contact with the rebels in Benghazi. They’d present a business proposal centered around two primary tracks. One would be military: they’d teach the rebels basic infantry tactics, like how to shoot and maneuver, and offer guidance on logistics and command.

But they wouldn’t be doing any actual fighting. The only armed mission they might perform is internal security — keeping the streets of Benghazi policed. Maybe.

The other mission would be communication, requiring a two-person team. “Rebels always need better public relations,” the vet says. This wouldn’t just be training in how to shoot video or tweet effectively. They’d bring in satellite phones, mobile connectivity tools, “means to get it done [since] the power of witness is huge.”

And the team would offer the rebels a goal: 90 days, no sleep till Tripoli. That’s predicated on the maintenance of allied air attacks on Gadhafi loyalists. “Given what the coalition has done to his forces, they could get to Tripoli, which would gain momentum from more people, a la Egypt,” the industry vet assesses. Revolution, Inc.

Would it be rude to discuss money? Figure it’ll cost between $500 and $600 per person day for a team that maxes out at 102 personnel. That tops out at a revolution costing $5.5 million from jump. Each crew member can expect to return home with $54,000 in — presumably — cash.

That seems low to Doug Brooks, the president and founder of the International Peace Operations Association, which sticks up for the interests of private security firms. For a training mission in a place as dangerous as Libya, Brooks calculates that a company could probably charge a minimum of $250,000 per contractor, all told.

Still, a $5.5 million revolutionary effort to change the picture on the ground would cost roughly as much as five Tomahawk missiles, which run you between $1 million and a million-five each. On just the first day of Operation Odyssey Dawn, 112 of them were fired from coalition ships and subs. For all their power against Gadhafi’s air defenses, they didn’t change the dynamic between the loyalists and the opposition.

Not that Brooks or the Association recommends putting security contractors into Benghazi. “Unless there’s some sort of legal structure, it becomes dicey, and possibly criminal,” Brooks warns. “Unless you get one of those three-letter agencies backing you, it could come back to bite you.” Now that’s a business plan.

Update: Reader C emails to say that security contractors in rebel-held Libya could probably expect to get way more than a $500-600 daily rate:

I get that in Iraq. I work 12 hours a day and my company charges the government almost $200 an hour for my work. To get me to go to a country with so many unknowns, operating potentially illegally and for such a short duration — 90 days on/30 days off is the standard — the pay would have to be considering greater. Think $1000-$1500 a day to the operator, and considerably more once you add in corporate revenue requirements.