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Thursday, 21 August 2014

Molotov-Ribbentrop: No More European Spheres of Unwelcome Influence

Alphen, Netherlands. August 21st. Seventy-five years ago at
2330 hours on August 23rd, 1939 one of the most dangerous and
destructive documents ever drawn up between two European states was signed in
Moscow. Named after the respective
Soviet and German Foreign Ministers of the day the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
(better known as the Nazi-Soviet Pact) was an exclusive non-aggression
agreement that carved Eastern Europe into spheres of unwelcome Nazi and Soviet
influence. In effect the Nazi-Soviet
Pact marked the real start of World War Two.
On the one hand, the Pact eased the way for Hitler who no longer faced the
prospect of a “zweifrontenskrieg”. On
the other hand, the Pact finally forced London and Paris to face reality and
give Poland security guarantees that actually meant something. World War Two broke out just over a week later on September 3rd. As an exercise in cynicism the Pact remains
unsurpassed. At its heart was a notorious Secret Protocol which breached all tenets
of the Versailles Treaty and the League of Nations concerning secret diplomacy and
strategy. The Protocol stated as
follows:

“On the occasion of the signature
of the Non-Aggression Pact between the German Reich and the Union of
Socialist Soviet Republics the undersigned plenipotentiaries of each of the two
parties discussed in strictly confidential conversations the question of the
boundary of their respective spheres of influence in Eastern Europe. These
conversations led to the following conclusions:

1.In
the event of a territorial and political rearrangement in the areas belonging
to the Baltic States (Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), the northern
boundary of Lithuania shall represent the boundary of the spheres of influence
of Germany and the U.S.S.R. In this connection the interest of Lithuania in the
Vilna area is recognized by each party.

2.In
the event of a territorial and political rearrangement of the areas belonging
to the Polish state the spheres of influence of Germany and the U.S.S.R. shall
be bounded approximately by the line of the rivers Narew, Vistula, and San.

The question of whether the interests of both
parties make desirable the maintenance of an independent Polish state and how
such a state should be bounded can only be definitely determined in the course
of further political developments.

In any event both Governments will resolve
this question by means of a friendly agreement.

3. With regard to South-Eastern Europe
attention is called by the Soviet side to its interest in Bessarabia. The
German side declares; its complete political disinterestedness in these areas.

This protocol shall be treated by both
parties as strictly secret.

Moscow, August 23, 1939.

For the Government of the German Reich:

V. RIBBENTROP

Plenipotentiary of the Government of the
U.S.S.R.:

V. MOLOTOV.

Nazi Germany was
eventually cast into the dustbin of history but only as a result of World War
Two and at the cost of 53 million lives.
Thankfully, modern Germany has nothing to do with such an
obscenity. Indeed, the very ethos and
existence of the Federal Republic of Germany and the European Union in which it
plays such a leading and enlightened role reflects modern Germany’s utter
rejection of those few ghastly sentences above.

Russia is also a
modern and civilised country and is not the Soviet Union of old and yet of late
it has been behaving as though it was. In
2014 not only is the Russian War Plan for Eastern Ukraine clear for all to see
it is already being enacted. There has also
been a whole raft of secret agreements between Moscow and pro-Russian
separatists in Ukraine including the infiltration of significant numbers of
Russian personnel and equipment.

One such
agreement led to the stationing of the Russian SA-11 surface-to-air missile on
Ukrainian soil which shot down Malaysian Flight MH-17 on July 17 resulting in
the murder of almost 300 innocent people. Former senior US official and Russian expert Strobe Talbot rightly
says that Russia’s invasion of Eastern Ukraine is already under way. The aim; a new Russian protectorate in
Ukraine called the Union of Donetsk and Luhansk Republics established on self-proclaimed
borders.

The toll is
mounting. As of 15 August 2119 people
had been killed in Eastern Ukraine with some 5100 people wounded. At present some 60 people are being killed or
wounded daily with some 156,000 people displaced. 190,000 people have fled to Russia with just
over 22,000 people having fled Donetsk and Luhansk last week alone in what is
in effect street-to-street fighting.

The planned
meeting next week between President Poroshenko and President Putin could make
the difference between open war and peace.
Therefore, on the seventy-fifth anniversary of the signing of this
criminal document President Putin has a chance to demonstrate to fellow
Europeans that he fully understands this is 2014 not 1939. And, that Russia believes in and is bound by
the rule of international law in a Europe the borders of which are also established
by law not force.

If an agreement
can be reached in Moscow between the presidents it must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty,
open a new dialogue on the future of Ukraine-Crimea, and establish proper
rights for all minorities within Ukraine.
Then Europe as a whole can return to the twenty-first century and Russia
return to the family of European nations to which it rightfully belongs.

However, for
such an accord to be reached other Europeans need to show political backbone –
no shady deals. Seventy-five years ago
the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was in part a consequence of Britain’s appeasement
of Nazi Germany. In 2014 Berlin and
other European capitals must be careful that they too do not mistake self-interested,
short-term appeasement for ‘strategy’.

Indeed, for all
Russia’s undoubted historical ties with Ukraine there is a fundamental issue at
stake in this struggle; the right of free and independent states to choose
their allegiances and alliances freely unhindered by unwelcome spheres of influence.

About Me

Julian Lindley-French is Senior Fellow of the Institute of Statecraft, Director of Europa Analytica & Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow, National Defense University, Washington DC. An internationally-recognised strategic analyst, advisor and author he was formerly Eisenhower Professor of Defence Strategy at the Netherlands Defence Academy,and Special Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of Leiden. He is a Fellow of Respublica in London, and a member of the Strategic Advisory Group of the Atlantic Council of the United States in Washington.
Latest books: The Oxford Handbook on War 2014 (Paperback) (2014; 709 pages). (Oxford: Oxford University Press) & "Little Britain? Twenty-First Strategy for a Middling European Power". (www.amazon.com)
The Friendly-Clinch Health Warning: The views contained herein are entirely my own and do not necessarily reflect those of any institution.