Nice win yysmer. It's much more like me to be on a +2 team than a -2 one. But then again usually the public is on the -2 one.

I still could never be on the lakers tonight, simply because everyone else was. But I explained ad nauseum why there was NO PLAY on the game.

Just because a side or total hits, or doesn't, doesn't necessarily mean it was a sharp play or not. That's subjective no matter how you slice it. Glad you won your bet though.

I think we established why there was no sharp play on this game, at least not according to my system.

I know what you are saying. Public favors always get killed by Vegas. But if you use "http://www.freesportsbet.com/scores/nba.html" you can see that the bet amount for the Lakers' game today is much lower than the last one. Vegas tend to give away the light games and take the heavy ones.

Another thing I've thought about is who knows how accurate that data is anyways, from those sites. They can tell you the money is on whatever side they want you to think it's on.

I have a friend that is in the sports betting business and he tells me first hand who people are taking. Between this inside info and knowing the public like favorites and overs, etc, I feel I have a pretty good feel for who the busters really are betting on.

When it's 50/50 we pretty much no-play it, unless its a big move on a dog or under, and that's that. Fortunately it's almost never like that though. Trust me when I say that there are plenty of plays throughout the week.

How do you bet against the Lakers? Kobe, Bynum, Pau? And the shooters going off. I mean I get your system. The casino makes profit because the MAJORITY of players are busting, that's got to be the case. Therefor you bet against the majority, assuming the majority is tipped to one side or another. If it's not then you don't bet. But sometimes the teams matter.

Alex. We didn't end up betting against the lakers tonight because the line moved back the other direction. Sharp money definitely doesn't win 100% of the time but we have to assume they win more than the public. So your correct about sometimes the teams matter as Czech said in the beginning of this thread " sometimes you just have to follow your gut feeling". At the end of the day we're all here to help each other beat the books.

Yeah man it was supposed to be close no matter what. I liked Denver as a matter of opinion.

This is the whole reason I'm working a system, to detour around the buster thought process. I don't have to pick games when I can follow the sharps. I don't know as much about these teams as they or Vegas do and don't need to.

Alright guys good discussion tonight we're getting somewhere fast! Tomorrow we'll crank it up. I just peeked at the card and am not in love at first sight but I'm sure those lines will tell us something tomorrow.

Sorry if I confused anyone. I was just posting situations that were originally trending in our direction just so we could watch them and see where they ended up. That's why its important to wait until right before tipoff.

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