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BRETTON WOODS, N.H. -- The other day the mid-afternoon wind chill at the top of Mount Washington was minus 73 degrees, with winds of 61 mph. For two days Wildcat Mountain, spiritual home of the toughest, most fearless skiers in New England, actually closed because of the cold. One newspaper warned that the exceptionally low temperatures could dangerously lower motorists' tire pressure.

The whole state is frozen, physically and politically. The weather deep freeze will soon pass, although the snow atop Mount Washington, the enduring symbol of this state's ruggedness and independence, won't melt until July. The political freeze will last longer, especially among Democrats. There will be no movement until two political figures make their intentions known.

One is Hillary Rodham Clinton, the consensus front-runner here if she decides to return to the state where her husband mounted an astonishing comeback in 1992 and where she defeated Barack Obama 16 years later. The other is Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who, though he would be almost 74 on Election Day 2016, is contemplating a third presidential campaign.

As a result, the silent season of presidential politics -- when ambitious governors and senators make subterranean calls to area code 603 and quietly court activists, state legislators and prominent politicos -- has been put on ice.

The one exception, underlining the level of attention paid to small acts three years from the next New Hampshire primary: The entire political establishment is wondering whether there is any truth to the rumor that state Senate Democratic leader Sylvia B. Larsen recently received a handwritten note from Ms. Clinton. ("Yes, I did," she said in a telephone interview, confirming the scuttlebutt preoccupying scores of people who live for such morsels and ruminate on what such a note might signal. The rest of the country has better things, like the Super Bowl, to think about.)

"Everybody is waiting to see what Hillary does," says state Rep. Jim Demers, who counts himself as Mr. Obama's first New Hampshire supporter, carbon-dating his allegiance to December 2006 when the Illinois senator came here on a book tour. "She could keep the race on hold for at least six months or maybe even a year. She has time to vacation, to rest up."

Mr. Biden stirred speculation here when he invited scores of Democratic activists, many from New Hampshire, to his home at the Naval Observatory the night after he was sworn in for a second term to talk politics. He did not sound like a man planning to retire.

"You have two people with high profiles and long records, and so what they do is the first set of things that will be in play," says Ned Helms, who was state co-chair of Mr. Obama's campaign the last two elections and is looking for a candidate to support in his 12th New Hampshire primary. "Everything after that is the second chapter, but we haven't written the first chapter yet."

The result is a situation where the normal physics of politics is being displaced by a cryogenic episode. This phenomenon -- freezing the political class at the moment it is itching to get moving -- is rare in American politics. It happened in the 1952 political cycle, when Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower not only refused to indicate his intentions but also refused to say even whether he was a Republican or Democrat. It last occurred in 1992, when Gov. Mario M. Cuomo of New York struggled with whether to run right up to the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.

Right now, much of New Hampshire is waiting for some sign from New York, where Ms. Clinton lives, or from the vice presidential mansion, where Mr. Biden is examining options and opportunities. If either, or both, send unmistakable signals that they plan to run, the presidential hopes of others may go into cold eclipse.

Then hardly anyone will care that Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland, the most recent chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, worked hard to elect New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan or that he worked with Jeanne Shaheen, now the state's senior senator, on the presidential campaign of Sen. Gary Hart, who scored a remarkable upset in the 1984 New Hampshire primary. (Word on the street: He knows how to do New Hampshire politics.)

And hardly anyone will notice that Mr. Cuomo's son, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York, has led New Hampshire Democrats not to expect any presidential maneuvering here until his re-election campaign is concluded a year from November. (Word on the street: He won't keep the political world waiting until the last day before the New Hampshire filing deadline, as his father did, with a plane idling on an Albany tarmac and then eventually shutting down its engines.)

Nor will it matter that Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts campaigned mightily for Mr. Obama in New Hampshire last fall and seemed to connect well with voters here as he built a network of friends. (Background: Every modern Massachusetts figure running for president except Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, who lost in 1980 to Jimmy Carter, and former Gov. Mitt Romney, who lost in 2008 to Sen. John McCain but prevailed four years later, has won the New Hampshire primary.)

Absent Ms. Clinton and Mr. Biden from the race, any of those figures could emerge. So could any number of relative unknowns. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota? Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York? Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana? Why not?

"Remember, Obama came from nowhere," says Ms. Larsen, the Senate Democratic leader. "He was unknown -- and there may be some unknowns this time. Americans like new things."

Maybe they do. But there was no January thaw in New Hampshire this year. Up here the snow squeaks in the cold and the Silver Cascade waterfall down the side of Mount Jackson is 250 feet of ice, with no movement at all. Everything is frozen in place.

David Shribman, a Pulitzer Prize winner in journalism, is executive editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Previously:

01/28/13Speech invokes past for present and future
01/14/13 If Obama's inaugural address is to be remembered at all
01/21/13 Identity crisis in the GOP
01/07/13 History meets firearms
12/31/12 In search of our better angels
12/24/12 Wounded in war, Inouye just kept serving his country
12/10/12 President as change agent
12/10/12 Another overtime election
12/03/12 Defining the Obama presidency: Our re-elected chief executive has the whip hand now, but how will he use
11/19/12 New Hampshire 2016
11/12/12 Obama's second chance
11/05/12 America's first martyr to free speech
10/29/12 Making hay in Iowa
10/15/12 When two men confronted each other from afar as civilization hung in the balance
10/08/12 If you look at the election a certain way, things don't seem so terrible
10/01/12 Debating the debates
09/24/12 Pessimists R Us
08/20/12 Obama remains a puzzle even as he asks the American people for a second chance
08/13/12 With Ryan, Romney upends the conversation
08/06/12 The real Romney remains hidden behind other people's opinions
07/30/12 What summer is for: How August can matter, and how Romney might use it
07/23/12 The Independent son of independent Maine promises to shake up Washington
07/16/12 The Rambler American
07/09/12 The Telstar revolution: Fifty years ago, a 3-foot orb was sent aloft and spawned a new era in communications
07/02/12 It's got only four electoral votes, but Romney and Obama will be fighting for them
06/25/12 A little noted rebellion over a lonely stretch of land helps tell the American story
06/18/12 You're nothing special: Luck is what you make of it . . . and what it makes of you
06/11/12 Anybody can talk authoritatively about the presidential election. Here's how
06/04/12 Candidates love to ally themselves with admired presidents, in sometimes unexpected ways
05/29/12 Americans aren't in a new burst of patriotism but they are in a new burst of appreciation for the military
05/21/12 Inside out: Almost nothing about this year's presidential election conforms to conventional analysis
05/14/12 Lugar grew into an elder statesman, which is why he'll be leaving the Senate
05/07/12 50 years later, MacArthur's farewell to arms continues to inspire
04/30/12 The likability factor: We're going to find out how important it is in these troubled times
04/23/12 Romney's four battles: With the nomination essentially in hand, he must turn to new challenges
04/16/12 For GOPers, expect the frustration to build, not abate
04/09/12 The political battles you cannot see
04/02/12 Romney's roadmap: Doing better in Democratic states may complicate his fall campaign
03/26/12 Romney struggles with same GOP forces his father faced long ago
03/19/12 The writer and the president
03/12/12 Romney could learn from his rivals after Super Tuesday
03/05/12 The GOP race continues, and Republicans continue to grouse about their choices
02/27/12 The turnout threat: when voters vamoose
02/20/12 The Winter's Tale: Republicans are engaged in a 'problem play,' full of psychological, and real, drama
02/13/12 Which Ike to like?
02/08/12 A tale of two elections: Voters today are making their most profound choice since 1912
01/30/12 Whither the GOP establishment?
01/23/12 The Democratic coalition is breaking up
01/09/12 The verdict that wasn't
01/02/12 These are the keys to who will persist
12/19/11 Another Gingrich rebellion
12/12/11 A defining fight for the GOP
12/05/11 A distinct lack of enthusiasm
11/28/11 For GOPers, the winds are beginning to pick up, the horizon is darkening
11/21/11 Today's polarized politics . . . blame FDR and the political scientists
11/11/11The sporting life
11/07/11 Ron Paul, true believer
10/31/11 Why Cain isn't able
10/10/11 GOP starting over
10/03/11 The Forgotten War of 1812
09/26/11 The way we live now
09/19/11 The crisis this time
09/11/11 But what will it mean?
09/05/11 A horse race column: Who might win the GOP nomination and how it might unfold
08/29/11 The vacuum calls
08/22/11 Passion and politics: How Barack Obama and Mitt Romney got crowded into the same dangerous corner
08/15/11 Eleanor's little village
08/08/11 The agony of August
08/01/11 The politics of the impossible: What a country this might be if the political class served the broad interests of the majority
07/25/11 Pennant fever grips 'Burgh
07/18/11 Exemplar of an era
07/11/11 On summer
07/04/11 The soul of the party
06/27/11 What the Secretary said
06/20/11 Romney has big advantages over his rivals, but they will be coming after him
06/06/11 One question each
05/30/11 The 14-week challenge
05/23/11 Delay tactics
05/16/11 Republicans are waiting
05/09/11 Bin Laden is dead. What does it mean?
05/02/11 From nobodies to nominees
04/25/11 The founders left slavery for future generations to settle, and we still haven't fully come to terms with it
04/18/11 From audacious to cautious
04/11/11 Dreaming of space
12/12/10 The GOP takes control
12/06/10 DECEMBER 7
11/29/10 GOP presidential hopefuls already are lining up local supporters in what is now a red state
11/22/10 Burning down the House
11/15/10 Institutions of higher learning are finally beginning to teach important lifeskills
11/04/10 The war has just begun
11/01/10 Echoes of a speech 40 years ago this week still resonate today
10/25/10 50 years ago America chose between two men who were dramatically different --- and eerily similar