For motorists, another February surge likely

It is regarded as a low-demand time of year, and yet the rise in the national average of gasoline prices has become a February pattern. Ten times in the last 12 years, the average price of gas has climbed in the calendar's shortest month.

In recent years, the spikes have been dramatic. Last year, the average price leapt 23 cents a gallon between the end of January and the end of February. In 2011, the price rose an average of 17 cents a gallon in the same four weeks.

Michael Green, a spokesman for the American Automobile Association, on Monday attributed those spikes to the political turmoil in the Middle East in 2011 and tropical storms that disrupted the production of oil in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012. This time, the problem is more predictable — lower gasoline production in U.S. refineries. Traditionally, the refineries close in midwinter for maintenance. That cuts into inventories but enables the refineries to operate at full at full capacity in the warmer months, when demand for gasoline is highest.

On gas pumps, that has explained a rise in the national average of 8 cents a gallon over the past dozen years. But on Monday, the Hess Corp. announced that it would soon permanently close its only U.S. East Coast refinery. Its plant at Port Reading, N.J., which had been producing 70,000 barrels a day, will close in February — prompting some analysts to predict a supply problem that could inflate the price of gas to $4 a barrel.

According to a Reuters report, stocks of gasoline on the East Coast are already 10 percent lower than a year ago.

Built in 1958, Port Reading refines residual fuel oil and vacuum gas oil into higher-value products such as gasoline and heating oil for the East Coast market. Hess said the Port Reading refinery came under pressure doe to costs associated with complying with environmental regulations. The plant incurred financial losses in two of the last three years, Hess said.

The maintenance closings in January typically lead to a rise in prices in February, marking a trend that typically continues into the summer. During the maintenance period, Green said refineries traditionally make the switch to creating a summer blend of gasoline.

"As the weather gets better, the demand does up. And so do the prices," said Green.

Only three times since 2000 — in 2001, 2006 and 2010 — have prices not climbed in February.

"The last couple of years involved some unique situations. Last February there were new sanctions against Iran and a lot of people were concerned about that, and oil prices spiked," Green said from his Washington, D.C. office this week. Those concerns pushed the national average price of gasoline from $3.50 to $3.73.

"Two years ago, the Arab Spring developments were in the news, and that created uncertainty," Green said, explaining a leap in the national average from $3.11 to $3.38.

On Tuesday, the national average for a gallon of regular unleaded stood at $3.49. That was six cents higher than a month ago and 10 cents a gallon higher than the same day one year ago.

The price hike was apparent on the local pumps. While the Upstate remained the area of South Carolina's cheapest gasoline this week, prices rose about five cents per gallon from the previous week. In the waning days of January, the average price tag for regular unleaded in the Upstate stood at $3.12 a gallon, five cents per gallon lower than the statewide average ($3.17) and a dramatic 37 cents per gallon cheaper than the national average ($3.49).

The best local prices were offered at the Plez-U in Easley and the Pelzer Food Mart on U.S. 29, where the rate was $3.05 per gallon. According to GreenvilleGasPrices.com, no other stations in Anderson, Pickens or Oconee Counties offer regular unleaded at less than $3.09 per gallon.