Academic Progress Rate

(The NCAA is expected to announce scores for the 2010-11 season next month.)

San Diego State plays USC in men’s basketball next season, and USD, CSU, BSU and UNM.

But an equally formidable three-letter opponent in coming years may be something else: APR.

It stands for Academic Progress Rate, and it is one of those numbers churned out by the NCAA each spring that was regularly greeted with a shrug and a scratch of the head. Few understood it, and few cared to. Or had to.

Then the NCAA, with the muscle of the U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, put some teeth into APR, enough that one of the nation’s most storied college basketball programs is banned from the Big East and NCAA tournaments next season. UConn enlisted the help of several Congressmen in its appeal for a waiver; the NCAA refused to budge. The 2011 national champs are out.

“If a coach says he’s not concerned about (APR),” SDSU’s Steve Fisher said recently, “he’s probably not being truthful. Everybody is aware.”

The Aztecs have never been afoul of APR in men’s basketball in its current form and are eligible for the 2012 postseason. But the minimum levels are quickly rising, and many schools – SDSU included – may find themselves filling sandbags.

What that means to coaches: Be careful who you recruit, no matter how talented, because an ill-timed academic casualty could sink you.

What that means to fans: Your team might not take that five-star center with a shaky academic record.

In other words, Norvel Pelle.

The 6-foot-11 post from Compton was rated the nation’s top center in the high school class of 2011 and No. 23 prospect overall by Rivals.com, and he initially signed a letter of intent with St. John’s. The NCAA Clearinghouse never approved him academically and Pelle ultimately de-committed, spending the year bouncing from prep academy to prep academy. At last check he was reportedly taking online classes while continuing to seek academic clearance from the NCAA.

Pelle has expressed interest in SDSU, attended games at Viejas Arena and even made an unofficial visit to campus. And the Aztecs recently gained another scholarship for next season and could use another big body inside.

An undeniable talent. An unmitigated risk.

NCAA rules preclude Fisher from speaking about specific recruits, but he did discuss APR and recruiting in general terms during a wide-ranging interview earlier this spring.

“It absolutely impacts recruiting nationwide,” Fisher said. “That is now something else that has to go into the equation when you recruit, without a shadow of a doubt.”

The official definition of APR by the NCAA is a “term by term measure of eligibility and retention for Division I student-athletes that was developed as an early indicator of eventual graduation rates.”

The formula works like this: Each scholarship athlete can accumulate two points per semester, one for staying in school and one being academically eligible. You divide your actual points by total available points, then multiply by 1,000. A 925 score theoretically is the equivalent of a 50-percent graduation rate.

The NCAA calculates APR as a four-year average, and schools with poor scores used to get two years to fix things before the draconian step of a postseason ban. The significance of the recent changes is the two-year safety net was removed and the minimum score was elevated.

The new rules are being phased in over three years, but beginning with the 2015-16 season you need a four-year APR score of 930 or higher, or else. In 2014-15, it’s 930 over four years or 940 over the most recent two years; for the next two seasons it’s 900 over four years or 930 over two. (UConn missed both targets.)

SDSU’s APR in men's basketball has ranged from 916 to last year’s 938, and everything seemed to be trending upward. Then came the historic 34-3 season in 2010-11.

Four players graduated off that team: D.J. Gay, Tim Shelton, Brian Carlwell and Medhi Cheriet. But three didn’t, torpedoing the single-year score that will stay with them for four years.

Malcolm Thomas and Billy White were seniors, and sophomore Kawhi Leonard left for the NBA Draft. All three dropped out of spring semester classes after the season to focus on out-of-town pro workouts, and Thomas and White failed to graduate. In APR parlance, they were all 0-for-2s for a total loss of six points.

The NCAA won’t officially release the latest APR figures until next month, but SDSU’s single-year score from 2010-11 is expected to be under 900. The four-year score is expected to be in the mid-930s.

It is the part of APR that receives the most biting criticism, schools being punished when players leave early for million-dollar professional careers. Some schools find creative ways around it (Kentucky somehow tied with Vanderbilt for the SEC's highest APR in men's basketball at 974 despite regularly losing underclassmen to the NBA). Most schools don't.

“In self-interest, I try to talk them into staying and finishing their school work,” Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim said during an NCAA Tournament news conference this year. “But if he thinks he can go to Chicago and work out with pro players with a workout coach and get better in the draft, who am I to say you can’t do that?

SDSU also could get dinged for forward Alec Williams transferring. You can get back that “retention” point but only if the player has a 2.6 grade-point average or higher – even if he is academically eligible at his new school with a lower GPA.

“That’s not fair,” Fisher said, “because the majority of the kids who leave are not being forced out, they’re leaving because they’re unhappy with playing time. That’s not the program’s fault. That’s no one’s fault. They’re looking for an opportunity to do what they love to do and play. So if they are eligible to return to your school, in my opinion, you should not be penalized for it. And right now you are.”

UConn fought it. The NCAA didn’t budge.

The fallout for the Huskies has arguably been worse than NCAA probation, the steady decimation of a fabled program with an exodus of players transferring and a noticeable dent on recruiting.

“We’ve never, ever been (in violation) for a four-year period,” Fisher said, “but that could change in a heartbeat with only 13 guys and the way they calculate it. Everybody’s aware. Everybody’s concerned. No one wants to take that chance.”