USDA Data Pressures Corn, Soybean Markets

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The U.S. farmers planted a higher amount of soybeans than the trade expected in 2014, according to the USDA's June Acreage & Quarterly Stocks Reports released Monday.

As a result, the CME Group futures markets are tracking sharply lower. For instance, following the release of the report, old-crop soybeans dropped 54 cents.

In its report, the USDA estimated the U.S. corn acreage at 91.6 million, vs. the average trade estimate of 91.7 million and its March estimate of 91.69 million.

For soybeans, the USDA sees the U.S. 2014 acreage at 84.8 million, compared to the average trade estimate of 82.2 million and its March estimate of 81.493 million.

USDA estimated the U.S. 2014 All Wheat acreage at (56.5 million, vs. the average trade estimate of 55.7 million and its March estimate of 55.815 million.

STOCKS

The following estimates include what the U.S. stocks were as of June 1, 2014.

For soybeans, the USDA sees U.S. stocks at 405 million bushels, vs. the average trade estimate of 387 million.

For 2014-15 U.S. corn stocks, the USDA estimates 3.85 billion bushels, vs. the average trade estimate of 3.724 billion bushels.

Wheat stocks, as of June 1, were estimated at 590 million bushels, compared to the average trade estimate of 603 million bushels.

Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy grain analyst says that obviously the big story is soybean acreage that came in about 2.0 million more acres higher than expected. "This should not have been that big a shock, if people were paying attention to Monsanto’s earnings released last week and DuPont’s guidance."

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says there isn't much to say. "The beans report was more bearish than expected for both items. Corn and wheat not so bearish, more in line, but probably taking some of the gas from beans. I think corn and beans can hold in through here, beans maybe got more downside coming. The stocks bigger keeps the nearby spread ugly now. Wow."

Bob Linneman, Prairie Ag Marketing Services grain analyst, agrees that the big bear factor surprise is with the bean acres. "Record-size bean crop. Now the question becomes yield – watch the Monday crop condition reports… Also, the corn was neutral, but beans are so bearish that we may see the beans keep the corn down," Linneman says.

mark madsen 06/30/2014 @ 9:31pm
with the record flooding in iowa and other parts of the midwest i wouldnt count on that record crop just yet. we just had 5.5 inches of rain in 2 hours. our great looking crop now looks like crap.

chad borman 06/30/2014 @ 11:51am
Great job once again on getting the usda to do you're bidding,you all are a complete disgrace to farmers. Today when you do your little video instead of feeding us a line of BS maybe you should apologize for what you are doing to farmers,then after that grab one of your usda buddies and get in your expensive can a drive out to each farmer in the nation and look us in the eyes and see if we believe the line of crap you are telling us,then explain how we are to pay our bills with prices this low.