This is worth a read if you are either interested in Shell as a long term investment, or as a backdrop to the whole topic of energy transition.

The report describes 3 different scenarios, with the most rapid transition, named "Sky", describing a world where electricity, accounting for 18% of energy usage today, moves up to 50% by 2060. In this scenario, half of all passenger vehicles sold will be electric by 2030 (100% in China and W.E.), and it will not be possible to buy an ICE powered vehicle by 2050.

It does point out that the rate of uptake of Electric Vehicles is limited by the investment required to put the infrastructure in place in parts of the world like India and Africa. It reminds you that of a population of 7bn today, 1.1bn do not have access to electricity networks, and 3bn still use solid fuel (firewood and dung) for cooking and heating.

The report describes 3 different scenarios, with the most rapid transition, named "Sky", describing a world where electricity, accounting for 18% of energy usage today, moves up to 50% by 2060. In this scenario, half of all passenger vehicles sold will be electric by 2030 (100% in China and W.E.), and it will not be possible to buy an ICE powered vehicle by 2050.

It does point out that the rate of uptake of Electric Vehicles is limited by the investment required to put the infrastructure in place in parts of the world like India and Africa. It reminds you that of a population of 7bn today, 1.1bn do not have access to electricity networks, and 3bn still use solid fuel (firewood and dung) for cooking and heating.

I enjoyed the Shell report, it was spleandidly wrong and hillIrious.

A CEO determined that it will be business as usual for decades to come, exactly the kind of complacency that gets business killed.

He could have said the world is changing & we will change with it, we will provide the tools to convert all the world's vehicles to electric, we will provide solar at such low cost that the burning of wood & dung will become a historical thing alone, just as the shaping of stones ended with the Stone Age.

In one hour the earth receives more solar energy than we use as a species over a year. This used to be purely academic, but now it is the underpinning of a new age of clean energy. She'll better get with this or perish.

But being a bit more serious - we build about 160k homes a year presently. Against 25m homes in the country - so a bit over 0.5% new per year.

If we accept Shell's view of 50% new cars pa by 2030 - 12 years. Seems a very reasonable, estimate to me - I can see no reason for writing it off as you do Ody - that still leaves a vast amount of work to be done retrofitting charging points to existing houses, and in many cases terraced streets. It can be done, but it will take many years and who is going to pay - not cash strapped local authorities.

Change is happening, but Shell are right - it's going to take a decades, not a few years.

It is amazing how quickly the wind can change when consumers see that a product they considered inferior is suddenly being bought by friends. Then when they see the money they can save, all of a sudden they grow environmnental concerns and it's all about saving the planet.

Said consumers are unlikely to give a fig about range if they can get 250-300 miles real world.

As to infrastructure, yes that is the problem that would most likely trash a speedier uptake. But never underestimate politicians who are struggling to meet emissions regulations and who have voters demanding action.

redsturgeon wrote:How many journeys of 450 miles plus does the average motorist take?

John

I think the question is more "How often does someone need to go somewhere to refuel? And what will they put up with to do so?"

A significant % (majority of motorists?) don't have the luxury of being able to refuel overnight on their own drive, because they rely on on street parking.So either refueling needs to be comparable in convenience terms to liquid fuelling, or we have to wait until all our city streets are dug up to put charging points at every parking spot/lamp post.I think car parks will be re-invented - pay for the spot, and get free re-charging while you are there. But this only accounts for a small % of total parking use.Either way, the Electricity Distribution Network Operators will need massive investment to cope with the change/upgrading of the local wiringTUK020

redsturgeon wrote:How many journeys of 450 miles plus does the average motorist take?

John

I think the question is more "How often does someone need to go somewhere to refuel? And what will they put up with to do so?"

A significant % (majority of motorists?) don't have the luxury of being able to refuel overnight on their own drive, because they rely on on street parking.So either refueling needs to be comparable in convenience terms to liquid fuelling, or we have to wait until all our city streets are dug up to put charging points at every parking spot/lamp post.I think car parks will be re-invented - pay for the spot, and get free re-charging while you are there. But this only accounts for a small % of total parking use.Either way, the Electricity Distribution Network Operators will need massive investment to cope with the change/upgrading of the local wiringTUK020

I think both questions are valid. For instance I have a driveway and an external charger for my PHEV. I do about 10k per year but most days the car runs on electricity only. I do perhaps four journeys a year of more than 20O miles. I cannot remember the last time I drove more than 450 miles in a day.

Alaric wrote:Current technology is liquid recharging which takes around 10 minutes including time to pay. That gives a range of around 450 miles at a cost of £ 60 to £ 70.

Some compromises on this are possible, I'm not sure where a cheaper price compensates for a longer refuel and a shorter range.

You are comparing oranges and apples. Electric car drivers will more-often-than-not not wait to "empty the tank" before refilling.

Let me move away from guessing the future and tell you the reality today (well my reality anyway). I don't spend hours charging my car. I get out of my car , walk to the front of the car, pick up the charging gun, plug it in. Job done. 20 seconds tops.

Yes, that is my daily commute when I drive well within my range. And yes, I am fortunate that if need by I could get to a hospital if an emergency happened before my scheduled charge finished in the wee hours.

That will be the way of life for a significant number of electric motorists. I apologise for not being able to provide a link, but I read that even today, the vast majority of second cars could easily become electric cars even on their piddling range because that is all the owner would need (think elderly who travel to the shops once or twice a week, stay-at-home-mum-or-dad that just does local routes). That's several million cars, yes?

Could we try to come up with a number for the number of homes with no means to charge from a home charger? I can see that those who leave in Victorian terraces are not going to be able to do so - well any sort of terrace really.

But the percentage of the UK housing stock comprising terracing must be reducing year on year. Do terraces still get built? I thought nowadays building regs stipulated a parking space, unless it is one of the eco-builds where occupiers are forbidden(?) to own one. When did that regulation come into force? How many houses built since then?

Imagine average out-of-town Tesco: no rapid chargers, just bog standard 3/7 Kw. First hour free, another hour free with "token" from the café, buy product X today and get a free hour of charge. All those sell-ons! One hour at 3Kw gives 12-15 miles of charge.

Infrastructure wise, that may be a big ask as you are not time shifting the charging to cheap overnight electric* - well you could install a battery but at what cost? 200 cars, 16 hours of charging a day, 3Kw chargers - yikes! You can do that at a motorway service station because you always pay through the nose for everything there!

Interesting report. EVs are not being bought in a static environment - the grid is changing just as fast.

TUK020 has raised the issue that the low voltage grid will be the reason electric car uptake will stall, this report goes some way to identify how UKPN will attempt to delay that happening (in ways that don't cost them huge amounts of money).

It's a starting point at least.

What irritates me most, is that this would be a non-issue if Government would just cease to blindly carry on as if nothing is changing! What a surprise.

How many billions on rail networks in the next few decades? What could you do with that if you prepared the electric network for the future? How much CO2 does a rail line reduce as compared to electrifying our road network? And the jury is out on whether the railway gets completed before the transport transition completes!

Very much so, particularly where Green Belt and other issues has made land very expensive. Usually it's gardens that are sacrificed rather than car parking, unless, as you also suggest, councils are trying to restrict car ownership.

redsturgeon wrote:[How many journeys of 450 miles plus does the average motorist take?

How few journeys above the current range of an electric car do you have to make before the inconvenience of in-trip recharging, or hiring an ice vehicle make it cheaper and more convenient to own electric and hire petrol on the odd occasion?

Most people move house from time to time. Most people do not see it as rational to own a Luton so that every four years they can do so without renting a van for the day.

TUK020 wrote:A significant % (majority of motorists?) don't have the luxury of being able to refuel overnight on their own drive, because they rely on on street parking.So either refueling needs to be comparable in convenience terms to liquid fuelling, or we have to wait until all our city streets are dug up to put charging points at every parking spot/lamp post.

On street charging will become the norm, but if you do say a 30 mile each way commute you only need a plug at one end most days, there's no actual requirement for it to be the end at which you sleep..

Meatyfool wrote:* How long will overnight electric be cheap???

As long as they don't want thousands of people charging their cars during coronation street, although cheaper might be a slightly more accurate term.

There is room for more dynamic pricing certainly, maybe seasonal variation based on average pv output, or a live 'stock market' where the price moves as renewable input to the grid rises and falls.

redsturgeon wrote: I do perhaps four journeys a year of more than 20O miles. I cannot remember the last time I drove more than 450 miles in a day.

450 miles is the range you use for a weekend out and back of around 200 miles, where you fill up at your home garage before you leave and when you return.

So the sort of journey where you could drive to your destination, plug in there and recharge overnight for the journey back?

John

I quite often do a round trip which just takes the full tank of fuel. I do it in the day and do not stop at a place where recharging might be possible for longer than an hour or so. I recently made the trip with an overnight stop on Friday night. Never again. The traffic outward was horrendous, compared with leaving at 7am on Saturday morning. That is for an appointment at 11am. Were it at 10am, I would have to endure the traffic, although I left home after lunch. I doubt that it would have been better leaving later or earlier

A plug-in hybrid would make it feasible, but for long distance motorway driving offers little advantage over a liquid fuelled car. The penalty is the initial cost.

I read all these posts yet see no consideration given to the problems that may arise from all the vehicles taking up road space for charging.I have always believed that roads were meant for people to travel on - private and commercial - yet it seems now that our overcrowded roads will have to service a new demand. There will be a new 'right' created to usurp the 'right of way'.

gnawsome read all these posts yet see no consideration given to the problems that may arise from all the vehicles taking up road space for charging.I have always believed that roads were meant for people to travel on - private and commercial - yet it seems now that our overcrowded roads will have to service a new demand. There will be a new 'right' created to usurp the 'right of way'.

No charging scheme I have seen would take up additional road space for charging purposes.

If all of this comes to pass then electric cars and charging points will be positioned so as to be indistinguishable from current practices. Some charging schemes are wireless and would require no above ground technology.