October 18, 2008

Palin will be Palin, and various cast members will be dressed up like her, trying to impersonate her, auditioning so to speak. She'll be judging them in some fashion. None of them will be good. But then Tina Fey will come out and there will be some sort of split screen, face to face moment between the two of then, standing in awe of each other.

Then again, I don't know.

They aren't going to do anything political because a) they don't want to make her look bad, and b) they don't want to make her look good, either. It will be politically neutral and more about the surreal imitation that Fey does it. A sort of cinema verite moment.

But maybe by the time you get here, the show will have already aired, in which case, what did you think of it?

UPDATE: That was mildly amusing. Alec Baldwin got to stand next to Palin and insult her -- by accident, thinking she was Tina -- and then got to say something that's true: Sarah Palin is more attractive than Tina Fey. Did Fey deserve that? No. Palin seemed like a seasoned actor, which is nice... but disturbing. If our politicians are great actors, we have a big problem. [ADDED ON REWATCH: Did Baldwin say Palin is more attractive than Fey? He mistook Palin for Fey, then, corrected, told Palin she was more attractive in person. I think that means he believed Palin was less attractive than Fey, but now, seeing Palin in person, he acknowledges Palin's equivalent attractiveness. Or something. The disrespect to Fey that I thought was there is, technically, not.]

MORNING UPDATE: Palin reappeared in the "Weekend Update" section of the show, which I can see in the comments, many of you watched in real time. I had to turn the show off after a minute of the opening monologue. Really, I was interested in seeing Palin again, but I can't sit through that stuff. TiVo in the morning worked just fine. Palin was a good sport, sit-down dancing and smiling, while Amy Poehler did a hilarious rap routine. Poehler is heavily pregnant, but she doesn't let that slow her down at all, which is rather Palinesque. I laughed out loud when the Todd character came out and at the line "All the plumbers in the house, pull your pants up."

(By chance, I'd just turned on live TV to see Joe the Plumber on "Fox and Friends" and they razzed him in person about the one thing everyone thinks is funny about plumbers. As they put it: "Why don't plumbers wear belts?" Joe went on at some length on the topic -- defensive! The life of a plumber is tough. It's not easy, as some people seem to think.)

190 comments:

I think they're partisan enough that they want to skew it. It was one thing to have McCain on before he was in or Huckabee on after he was out, but this is different. And even if they wanted to throw straight dice - how to write it?

I wish I were a more trusting man, but I fear that they will try and sandbag her somehow, or at least sandwich her amidst some unusually raunchy material to embarrass her and McCain the way they did with Ron Nessen back in the 70s to embarrass Gerald Ford.

At the very least, look for Weekend Update to be unusually vicious towards McCain.

"I just want to be there to show Americans that we will rise above the political shots that we take, because we're in this serious business for serious challenges that are facing the good American people right now,"

Was it funny? Well, kinda-sorta. More to the point, did it help? Not really, because the problem wasn't that Palin didn't need to show that she has a sense of humor. Lost opportunity. SNL got more out of her than she got from SNL.

And, tonight, I'm seeing bits of proof positive of what I've suspected for a while: that supporters of Sarah Palin, while they may cheer her politically and most especially as a symbol, don't truly get her any more than her denigrators (again, politically or symbolically) do.

I'm avoiding watching even though the clips are already circulating online (I'm in CA)...but it sounds like she did a good job and was funny, which is great and I can't wait to see her. It's stuff like this (along with McCain's fantastic job at the Al Smith dinner) that makes me really like these two...but then, ugh.

"More to the point, did it help? Not really, because the problem wasn't that Palin didn't need to show that she has a sense of humor. Lost opportunity. SNL got more out of her than she got from SNL."

Yes, SNL got the better of the deal - great ratings - but if you were looking for this to "help" in the election, you were looking for too much. Palin got to show she's a good sport, she got face time and she got to show the left that she's not the caricature the press has presented. All good things.

Theo Boehm said... "Palin is operating on an entirely different level. It's going to be interesting to see how someone with her skills, but very right-wing belief system and ill-formed incipient political philosophy, will do in the next few years."

She'll be the GOP nominee in 2012, John Bolton will be her Dick Cheney, and she'll be 45. That's my prediction, and while it'll be easier if McCain wins this year, I think it holds regardless of what happens in three weeks.

And as far as Baldwin dissing Fey's looks, that's nothing new, sort of. On 30 Rock, Fey's Liz Lemon is routinely mocked for being unattractive and frumpy, usually by Baldwin (Jack Donaghey). What's great about Tina is that she knows she is hot and can still be made fun of for being ugly, even though she's not, which doesn't really make sense, but yet it does.

Damn, I need to put to rest my old ways. It's a new age, here and everywhere, and has been for the longest while. I wish it weren't so hard to let old habits die, but there it is: Old habits need to die, hard or not.

reader_iam said... "Which means her time is not "now," at least from that POV."

I'd go back to what I said on August 22d, urging McCain to pick Palin: "she finishes first in an imperfect field ... [even if she] is arguably too young; a rising star not yet fully risen, with much time left in her term as Governor. Much better to let her stay up there and bloom on schedule, perhaps as a 2012 nominee. But then again, who else is there? There has to be a veep choice, and ... she brings the most favorable thrust:drag ratio of any of the other possibilities." I stand by that.

Peter - ask anyone who's been to a rally if the bloom is off the rose. Ask someone who doesn't write for or subscribe to the New York Times if the bloom is off the rose. I'd be willing to bet that there's an inverse corrolation: on a fundamental level, people who subscribe to the New York times don't get it. It's not that they're dumb; a lot of smart people need something to wrap fish with. They just live in a different world, one where comments like "Sarah Palin doesn't have the experience to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency but Barack Obama has the experience to be President" make sense.

"Theo Boehm said..."In regard to Dems too far left and Reps too far right, you should love McCain. The reason so many of us on the right have a hard time accepting him is because he's too close to the left side.

I should acknowledge that there are those who subscribe to the NYT out of sheer sentimentality, as well as those who need something to wrap fish. And fair enough. I have in mind just those people who think they're subscribing to the product of a professional journalistic outfit, something the NYT gave up the pretense of being just shy of two months ago.

Peter, I wouldn't say that. I think the experience question is totally clear cut. She is more qualified to be President than her running mate or either of the people on the other ticket. I just don't understand how -- or rather, I guess what has surprised me most since she was selected (apart from the flagrant unprofessionalism of the media) is the sheer moxie of her critics in raising the experience issue. That just flabberghasts me. I don't know how anyone who supports Obama can say with a straight face and a semblance of intellectual integrity that Palin "isn't qualified." That's just an absurd claim.

You really don't think it's odd that Palin gives responses such as the one I pasted here at 10:37.

She's constantly repeating the same talking points, even if they don't fit the question. How did her time on SNL show that she is "in this serious business for serious challenges that are facing the good American people right now."

This is Palin being Palin.

On the stump, at the convention, and at SNL are examples of Palin reading and doing what others tell her to do.

She'll be the GOP nominee in 2012, John Bolton will be her Dick Cheney, and she'll be 45. That's my prediction, and while it'll be easier if McCain wins this year, I think it holds regardless of what happens in three weeks.

Yeah, right. If memory serves, Simon, you were predicting, or at the very least saying there was a pretty good chance of, Obama finding a reason to walk out of the Presidential debates after McCain handily defeated him after debate number one. Things didn't quite turn out that way, now did they? Your skills at prognostication or general real-world political analysis tend to leave something to be desired.

Palin will probably run in 2012, and won't get very far. Let's remember, some people said Quayle would be a viable post-Bush 41 Presidential candidate. That is, until Bush 41 was out of the picture and real political jockeying kicked in. She's a joke, and the only way she'll get the GOP nomination in 2012 is if the party itself becomes a joke, which it won't. There are too many people with real skills and skin in the game to prevent that from happening.

No one who reads you believes for a second that you would say the same things about Palin if she were a left wing Democrat, and certainly not if she had been the Democrat Governor of Alaska and chosen by Obama for Veep instead of Early Onset Alzheimer's Joe.

You have no credibility.

I'm just doing you the favor in explaining why no one here likes you or gives a shit about any of the hate-filled things against Republicans and evangelical Christians that you always have to say.

Watched this video linked on the Canadian site SDA with the notation you can't make this stuff up. As much as I'd prefer a sentence structured to avoid ending on a preposition, I clicked the link anyway. Turned out to be an interview with Yuri Bezmenov with some guy with the Daily motion which is a video place I never saw before. They have a video called the two McCains that's also pretty funny, but that's OT too. I honestly don't know what to make of the Bexmenov interview. Sometimes I can't tell when someone's telling the truth as they know it and when I'm just being played. Played like a banjo. Played like a banjo that's out of tune. Played like an out of tune banjo by a bad banjo player in a band that sucks. Played like a ... you get the idea.

Victoria: So, what's so special about those boots? Look like standard-issue wear for a slim woman in good shape who can support that look. I see women in those sorts of boots all the time around here in colder weather.

Though it got me into trouble on my blog, Theo, because I mentioned the "prioress garb" of poor Senator Snowe, I think she looks fantastic wearing red and black boots.

Other than Condi (who I mentioned in my blogpost about those boots), I can't think of a single female political figure who would have the audacity to wear such a combo.

It's curious about Michelle O wearing Gap and those other off the rack brands she's now wearing ... not many Gap wearers I know order Iranian Caviar and Lobster at the Waldorf Astoria from room service.

Sarah, OTOH, I totally see in off the rack clothes. A woman who kills and dresses her own food would be an off the rack kind of gal. Bet she prefers Hampton Inn, too.

Hey James! Welcome back. I too have been on again, off again (in the past few weeks, off again...again).

I thought that Fey looked decidedly displeased to have the real Palin in front of her.

I really like Tina Fey, and consider her a terrific comedic talent, but let's be honest -- her angular features in that caricatured Palin dress and hairstyle make her look dowdy and old. Next to the real Palin tonight, she looked about 60 to Palin's hotcha mama of 40.

And Host is right - somefeller is an idiot. And that's just from reading the last 2 days.

Sarah, OTOH, I totally see in off the rack clothes. A woman who kills and dresses her own food would be an off the rack kind of gal. Bet she prefers Hampton Inn, too.

I know! It's like she's, oh, Joe Six Pack! Or Joe the Plumber! She's one of us, right?

When she's not killing and dressing her own food and running for the vice presidency, I bet she shops at Sam's Club. It's good to keep a little ground round in the fridge, you know, in case you don't time to dress a moose.

I love to see how some conservatives see every example of disagreement to be an example of hate. Such a sad little display of victimology.

Actually, if you had some sense, you would see these lines of mine to be a compliment towards politically savvy Republicans: [Palin's] a joke, and the only way she'll get the GOP nomination in 2012 is if the party itself becomes a joke, which it won't. There are too many people with real skills and skin in the game to prevent that from happening.

That last line is a sign of respect for smart conservatives, some of whom I call friends. In 2012, the Republicans to watch won't include Sarah Palin. Bobby Jindal, on the other hand, is one to watch, if he cleans out the Augean Stables of Louisiana politics. And don't count out Mitt Romney.

My, my, Victoria, I thought you weren't paying attention to my comments anymore. Oh well, I guess when you can't come up with a good factual response or substantive comeback, you stay silent or piggyback on other people's lines. How sad.

Actually, in looking at one of the more unhinged anti-somefeller comments tonight, it's worth noting that I'm accused of saying hate-filled things against evangelical Christians. Funny, I don't recall spending a whole lot of time talking about Christianity in general, much less the evangelical variety, on this blog. I pretty much keep to discussions of the secular rather than the spiritual world here, and am not given to hate-filled commentary about anyone, much less particular Christian denominations. Oh, well, just another internet mystery, I suppose.

Off to bed, I had a pleasant evening checking into the blog after a night at the theatre. I know, going to such entertainments makes me a terrible liberal elitist, but what can I do? Good night, all!

I'm not so sure about that, Peter. I have one of the blouses she has been wearing, and I got it at Coldwater Creek, which she has mentioned is one of her favorite stores. Definitely off the rack.

I found this blurb in a FEB 08 issue of Vogue...

"I'd say my favorite designers are Patagonia and North Face," she jokes. That hasn't kept others from commenting on her appearance, like Washington, D.C.-based blog Wonkette that has called her "the hottest governor in all 50 states and my total girl crush."

And the funniest part of the story...

There's a small but vocal cabal (the press calls them "Palinistas") who like to mention her as a national star, maybe even a Republican vice-presidential candidate. That seems unlikely—with only 670,000 residents, Alaska delivers fewer voters than a medium-size city in middle America.

Sarah Palin is a natural beauty, Tina Fey isn't. Tina is a very talented comedic actor/writer.

Okay, all Simon ribbing aside, let me say that I agree with him when he says that Fey is just glorious. This includes physically, too, though as I alluded to, she's a skinny pencil to Palin's square eraser.

(In Britain we would say rubber, but I long ago learnt to excise that from my vocab)

But she is also a big liberal in Big Media and she and the others genuinely DESPISE!! Sarah Palin and that part of White America that likes her.

Despise is really not an overstatement. I think they wish she and others like her would just fall off the deep end of America.

Joe the Plumber Derangement Syndrome (pace Michelle Malkin) is just a continuation of this deep hatred of all like him and Palin.

When my father was young, children were supposed to be seen and not heard. Urban progressive liberals don't want either with Palin and Co.

This is a deeply rooted class/cultural/regional/racial issue that goes way beyond political positions.

You're right. I called it the urban versus rural divide in a post about P. Diddy's ridiculous videos on her nomination.

"ALASKA! Come awwn now, John McCain! Alasssska? Do they even have crime there??"

The saddest part? That those who are often the most embarrassed by rural folk, are those who came from that background, but cling to their new big city roots as a drowning man might to a life raft.

I can't help but think that these ex-small town folks make fun of the Palins of this world for being yahoos, because they know genuine big city folk would be making fun of THEM if not for their relocation.

I accept that prior to her selection as VP, she wore more normal clothes with sensible labels.

I suspect that Palin's team is spending a lot on her wardrobe for her prominent public appearances. She didn't show up at the RNC wearing Coldwater Creek. Reports are that she wore a $2500 jacket to give her acceptance speech in St. Paul.

Hi, chickenlittle! It was fun. I couldn't find rubber cement, so I had to just draw on some stitches and scars. I had to keep pulling out the black lipstick to freshen up my dead look, so I was a very femme Frankenstein.

We had lovely temperatures in the low 70s, so it wasn't uncomfortable wearing grease paint.

I got home late, and now I have to go wash the black spray out of my hair. Yuck!

1) You know the old gag about the (ugly, formless) Twin Towers, that they were the boxes the (beautiful, classic) Empire State Building and the Chrysler Building came in? That is the comparison between Fey and Palin. The lightning and the lightning bug. I could go on...

And yes, I enjoyed both skits. Maybe Vicki can find a clip of the SNL ending, and maybe a transcript of the 2nd Palin skit? People are so hard to understand nowadays ("anymore" in this context is one of those words I despise, for that other post).

2) The clip was a little jumpy and I couldn't fullscreen it, but yes, Gov. Palin has rhythm - man, would you like to take her to the prom or what? - and seemed to really get into it. I liked the lip-biting when they made the hit on the Bridge to Nowhere, v. sexy too. (Poehler was great - "Because I'm an animal! And I'm bigger than you!!!" LOL!) I remember the Obama Shuffle on Ellen - yes he was OK but I remember thinking she was better than he was.

3) They were about as kind as could be expected - let's say even-handed.

4) I also liked the first one - yes it was a moment when they passed on the stage.

5) reader_iam, you might have a point about getting Sarah Palin. There is more to her than we have seen.

6) zps: "makes me really like these two...but then, ugh." Trust your feelings! If you didn't know their positions who would you like better?

7) On Michelle's diet: I like that stuff; I hope she enjoyed it. But does she eat that way all the time or did she have some REAL good news that night? Meanwhile, I dare say anything Mrs. O eats is a good idea. I have often thought she could use a sammich.

8) zps: I too have thought this. Is she as good as she looks? Is she really The Natural? Why am I nuts about her? Is this what Obamites feel when they look at their guy?

But remember, it works both ways. You are on record as admitting that at least some fraction of the Obama support transcends rationality.

And remember - if you're worried about going into the Twilight Zone with a POTUS, at least with Palin you have a seasoned guy who would have to die first. If it were Biden/Obama the Dems would look much saner.

Beth: I'm sure you were being snide but everything you said there (1:16) was probably about true. As for Cheney, I think he's just great. You've just got some psych thing going because you're afraid he'd kill you with his meat-stick if you ever loosened up enough for him to get it into you.

somefeller: we can tell passive-aggressive when we see it.

hoh: She probably looks better in a potato sack than anybody on SNL or in the 2008 race (or their wives, of course) looks in custom tailoring (though Cindy McCain is OK and Michelle isn't positively ugly on a good day). I only wish I had the money to buy her some clothes. La Perla, oy...I'll be in my bunk.

But really, it is very hard to avoid the conclusion that the Democrats chiefly hate that she's not one of them.

The skit set in the Japanese restaurant about the chick who couldn't shut up about the guy getting married was hilarious. Behind the lobster tank. Lobster in her mouth. Ha ha ha ha ha . Flipping around. Burst through the shoji screen. Ha ha ha ha ha Comes back with bits of broken slats. Her friends kick her out. Ha ha ha ha ha That cracks me up.

I for one was very excited to see Sarah Palin on SNL. Actually the best part of the show tonight were the scenes with her in them. With that said the comedy writers are not doing so well as in the past. The thing I find interesting about her appearance on the show was who they chose to host it. I am not sure I could or would have appeared on the show with so many vocal opponents such as Josh Brolin...he actually said on ET that she was a celebrity and had no business being Vice President and her popularity would be fleeting. I think the look that Tina and Sarah gave each other was part of the script..for the record Sarah has said she really likes Tina...not totaly sure what Tina's feelings are but I think Sarah held her own tonight and showed she will not be moved by any negative press or opinions of her. You have to give her credit for that...I would say she knows who she is and you either like her or you don't either way she is still smiling...she may also have the last laugh on Nov 4th you never know...

Hey Steven..my comment about the writing was not an insult just an observation of how the the gags seemed dis-jointed with timing and not worthy of SNL history. It concerns me that something that has had many lives and talented players would be so lame tonight...may be it was just Josh Brolins acting that sucked tonight I don't know for sure but he seemed a bit off his game tonight for the most part.

First, it's only a "big problem" if you fall for it, which you shouldn't. Whether it's Clinton biting his lip or Biden tearing up. Clinton was well practiced; I prefer to think Biden wasn't faking, but it matters not from a voting/policy standpoint.

Second, who's to say she was acting? How different is reading from a TeleprompTer for a speech vs. for a sketch?

In the abstract, I think it was gutsy. (Maybe not, though: Maybe if SNL had gone all out against her, that would help their campaign. Who knows?) I'm not going to watch it, most likely, and it's irrelevant as lip-biting.

Ann, you're not so naive as to believe that when Senator Obama stares off at the distant horizon with his head cocked just so, that it's anything *but* acting, do you? That he's the genuine article? Or that any other politician is, for that matter, do you?

They're *all* entertainers who rely on showmanship and stagecraft. Senator Obama's better behind the podium, Senator McCain's better at vaudeville, and Sarah Palin is comfortable in front of the television camera.

Simon said: "That's my prediction, and while it'll be easier if McCain wins this year"

Sort of disagree, it's a close call, but I think Palin's 2012 chances might actually be better if McCain loses.

Otherwise, she'll be asking the voters to extend 12 straight years of GOP rule to at least 16 years. That won't be an easy sell even if McCain's term is considered a success, which is far from certain given the economy he will inherit.

And it's likely that her 2012 opponent in that scenario would be Hillary, eliminating the biggest advantage she would have running against an incumbant Obama: The excitement of a uniquely historic candidacy as the first female major party Presidental nominee.

Also, if Palin is shackled to McCain for 4 years, while he repeatedly pisses off conservatives by co-operating with Dems on things like amnesty, that may diminish her luster with the base somewhat (unless she's smart enough to distance herself from him as much as she can on those issues).

On the topic of politicians being "great actors" (or phonies, to put it another way), we once had a President who slept with a French guy (outdoors, cuddling); cried when the French guy's name was mentioned at the dinner table; after being captured by the enemy after losing a battle, signed a confession admitting, falsely, that he assassinated a military opponent; cried when heroic poetry was read; always left church before communion was offered; was too vain to wear glasses and on one of the rare occasions when he did, he broke down crying in front of men he'd known for years; and fell into a daze after a losing yet another battle, and had he not be led away would have been killed or captured.

Still, I don’t want to leave without posting something of lasting value, so here’s a wholly gratuitous photo of Ann Hathaway.

Wait a minute.

You know . . . now that I think of it, not too long ago I read in a magazine in a doctor’s office that Ann Hathaway will be reworking her princess image in an upcoming movie by playing an unglamorous psycho drug addict or something or other.

So . . . maybe I would do well to do a post of two photos that amounts to an itty-bitty, shallow little rumination on politics, acting, reality, illusion, the lie that tells the truth, the human condition and what’s-it-all-about-Alfie, RIGHTHERE.

Blessings on Victoria for posting the skits. It permits me to remain on the Going Galt plan, here depriving SNL and NBC of my eyes, and -more important- nothing for their advertisers.

Palin was remarkable at least for one thing: to walk into a lion's den, to be among those that hate and mock you, but smile and not seem to care, and actually laugh and have fun, takes remarkable strength and poise.

Funny? Meh.SNL is a liberal religious ritual, much like The Daily Show and Oliver Stone. It's their form of prayer to recite each week; the words and pictures don't matter as much ad that they are said; the prayer of the faithful.

It's no fun for them if the intended victim will not be mocked; even less fun if she enjoys it, and seems to come out ahead.

I only hope my daughter finds her a good role model for all the Baldwins and and Courics and CNNs and NYTimes she'll have to deal with in life.

There are people on the NBC website with the clips complaining that it was wrong of Palin to decide not to do the rap herself in the second skit. What brand of idiot thinks that the banter in a comedy show is real?

SNL is a liberal religious ritual, much like The Daily Show and Oliver Stone. It's their form of prayer to recite each week; the words and pictures don't matter as much ad that they are said; the prayer of the faithful.

Eh, sorta.

One of the show's longtime writers, Jim Downey, has shown remarkable independence of that mentality over the years. Remember the skit where the press was trying to get obvious military secrets out of Pentagon spokesmen? Or more recently, the skit (that NBC later had to "edit" for the web) about the economic collapse -- rough on Bush, but much rougher on Pelosi and Frank, depicting them as bleeding hearts for buffoons who clearly had no business buying/refinancing their homes.

They have been hard on Bush the past eight years, too, but, come on... Amy Poehler's rap about Alaska was, I thought, affectionate enough toward Gov. Palin while also very funny, and threw out the "A" word to boot -- mentioning the guy NBC news scarcely discusses.

somefeller said... "If memory serves, Simon, you were predicting, or at the very least saying there was a pretty good chance of, Obama finding a reason to walk out of the Presidential debates after McCain handily defeated him after debate number one."

Correct. And as Trevor Jackson (in response to whom I made that prediction) will tell you, I recently went out of my way to note that the prediction had been falsified by events. The prediction that Obama would do poorly in the first debate was a reasonable surmise based on the information that was available at the time: McCain prefers the cut and thrust of debate, Obama had previously done poorly in that context, and Obama acknowledged as much by refusing to do a string of debates over the summer. As it turned out, Obama did better (and McCain worse) than a reasonable observer would have expected. The prediction that he would wriggle out of the remaining debates should he do poorly, which has not been falsified, was based on (and remains consistent with) his behavior to date, such as pulling out of public funding.

Who else will there be? Jindal? From what I'm told by conservatives living in Louisiana, forget it. who else is on the farm team?

peter hoh said... "Simon, Obama's inexperience was the issue that seemed to be giving McCain traction in the late summer months. Then he went and undermined that with his pick of Palin."

Again, I totally reject the premise of the argument. Palin has more relevant experience than Obama and Biden put together. Let's put it this way: you're the manager of the Colts. You have a big game tommorow, but - oh no! - Peyton Manning has thrown out his shoulder. You have two choices to replace him: a guy who's been a commentator on Monday Night Football - the big league! - for two years, but has never set foot on the turf himself, and the star player from the college football. Who do you pick?

I don't remember Rove slamming Kaine; if he did, that was silly. Lookit, a person cannot be expert on all the issues in the Presidential ambit; that's just not possible. Good Presidents start with an overall vision that is cast at the right level of generality; on top of that, they need the humility and wisdom to understand the limits of their knowledge, to pick good people they trust to figure out the details, and an ability to manage the team they put together, process the information they're fed and make the final decision. There is no doubt in my mind that Kaine is qualified to be President or veep - more so than Obama, more so than Biden, and indeed, more so than was W., which is why I find it hard to believe Rove said that.

"Let's put it this way: you're the manager of the Colts. You have a big game tommorow, but - oh no! - Peyton Manning has thrown out his shoulder. You have two choices to replace him: a guy who's been a commentator on Monday Night Football - the big league! - for two years, but has never set foot on the turf himself, and the star player from the college football. Who do you pick?"

The manager of the Colts? WTF.

Stick with the ipso facto dude and leave sports to people who actually follow it. Okey dokey.

She is charismatic, can relate to the average person, esp. in fly-over country, relatively clean, and is willing to take what the libs throw at her, including the MSM, and throw it back at them.

Too long have Republicans (with McCain often seeming to lead here) to want to get along with the Democrats and their MSM adjuncts. We have a financial crisis primarily caused by Democrats in Congress, and one of the culprits running ahead right now for president, and yet, the Republicans don't call them on it. Only as McCain gets desperate does he start doing so, half heartedly.

Palin takes the fight to the enemy, not really caring that they don't like her. We have been waiting for eight years through a Bush Administration, and six years before that with Republican Congresses for just that.

The last major Republican figure to have done so was Gingrich. But he was brought down, AND, was always too much the egghead academic. Before that, of course, was Reagan. She shares much more with the later than she does with the former, including the ability to charm her enemies.

So, esp. if McCain/Palin loses this time, who do the Republicans have to run against her? Anyone in Congress is immediately suspect, if for no other reason than most of them have the same problems that McCain does in fighting the Democrats, the go-along, get-along attitude.

She will have the inside track because we have all seen her in action when it counts, and haven't seen any of the other potential Republican candidates. We know that she can do what they will claim to be trying to do.

Also, she has the potential to put a lot of the blue mid-west back into play. She can go into the auto plants in MI or steel plants in PA and connect with the workers there like few other Republicans can (and no Republican has at the national level since Reagan did).

And I give you respect for admitting a mistake. That isn't done much on the internet, and doing so is part of good and spirited debate. (Which some nervous nellies around here call hate speech, even when the comments are something that wouldn't raise an eyebrow on an elementary school playground, much less a debating hall or conference room.) So, I'll give a tip of the hat on that score and won't refer to that issue again.

Regarding the GOP farm team, while Jindal may have had some speedbumps in Louisiana, I wouldn't count him out at all. Like I said, if he cleans things up there, he'll be well-positioned. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are also two names to consider strongly, plus Newt Gingrich will have had over a decade of daylight between a 2012 run and his late 1990s fall to refurbish his image. Last, one can't always tell where the bench is four years out. No one would have picked Barack Obama to be the Democratic nominee in 2008 the day after Kerry's defeat in 2004, after all.

In Palin's case, while I'd agree she might be able to make a credible run for the GOP nomination, she doesn't look as good on that score now than she did a month ago, and there will be no shortage of people out to prevent her from getting that nomination, both for personal ambition reasons and ideological ones. Plus, the fact that a lot of conservative opinion leaders are already down on her and are unlikely to come around (like George Will, Peggy Noonan, David Brooks, Ross Douthat, etc.) won't help her, though I don't want to imply that they have that much authority in real life. I remember a quote on the topic of commentators, I forget from which European monarch, that was something like "sometimes you think you hear the voice of God, but it is merely the voice of the Privy Councillor".

Huckabee is a wacko religionist and Romney just never was able to take off. Both are old news. They had their shot, and I don't see either being taken seriously next time around. Jindal looks a bit weird but is smarter than almost anyone around (though Romney is bright too). I see Jindal more as a VP candidate next time around than first chair.

As for the Republican opinion leaders you cite, I might suggest that they are the rear guard of the old Republican party. There seems to be a major realignment going on between the two parties, with the Rockefeller wing of the GOP going Democrat, and the blue collar and RC wing of the Democratic party heading right. The Democratic party seems headed towards a bi-coastal elite running the party and those receiving government largess voting them into office, with the Republicans representing the middle, and esp. those who do not identify with the bi-coastal elites.

He's literally a genius, and hence would almost certainly win the primary debates no matter how much she studies up between now and then.

But given the natural GOP tendancy to give the nomination to whoever is most logically next in line, combined with the huge amount of affection the base will surely retain for Palin, and the fact that Jindal will still only be 41, unless Palin completely bombs in the debates or otherwise self-destructs, if Jindal is on the the GOP ticket in 2012 it will most likely be as Palin-Jindal, in that order.

No way Romney gets it if Palin runs. If Palin doesn't run and Jindal does, than Romney has a good shot, but the anti-Mormon factor probably gives it to Jindal.

vbspurs said... "Okay, all Simon ribbing aside, let me say that I agree with him when he says that Fey is just glorious. This includes physically, too, though as I alluded to, she's a skinny pencil to Palin's square eraser."

Good word choice; she's the complete package. I don't like her politics, but she makes it work.

peter hoh said... "Victoria wrote: Despise is really not an overstatement. I think [liberals] wish [Palin] and others like her would just fall off the deep end of America.

That works both ways. Listen to the rhetoric coming from the right, and I think it would be fair to assume that some of them would like liberals to fall off the deep end, too."

I have to admit that I feel a lot more like that today than I did when I woke up on 8/29, and by God, the left has worked overtime to make that shift happen. Much of the behavior towards Palin has been absolutely despicable.

Beth said... "Simon, I assume by 'her Dick Cheney' you don't mean just 'her VP' so I have to ask -- why in God's name and all that is holy would we want another Dick Cheney anywhere near our government?"

I mean in the sense of a Vice President who's picked primarily to lend heft to the ticket. Cheney was seen as a heavy - in every sense of the term, including the Gangster movie one. I actually think Dick cheney has been a very effective Vice President - he has done almost exactly what he was picked to do, and he has been a powerful player in the administration. Of course people are going to have different views on whether he used his powers and talents for good or ill, but I think it's inarguable that he's been effective in doing what he thought was best for the country. Likewise, Bolton strikes me as being an unapologetic bare-knuckle fighter for American interests. I'd sure as hell hate to work for him - I think someone upthread noted that he's a pain in the as as a boss - and I think he needs to be kept on a leash (surely no one doubts that Palin can keep people in line), I do think he has the skillset to be a good Deputy President, which is essentially the role that Bush has delegated to Cheney.

I really think that the days where you picked a veep who'd help you win in a given region are dead and gone. McCain didn't pick Palin because he needed to shore up those three Alaska votes. Obama didn't pick Biden because he thought it would help him with Delaware. Bush didn't pick Cheney because he could put Wyoming over the top. Clinton didn't pick Gore for help in Tennessee. I guess the last person picked for anything approaching those reasons was Quayle, maybe?

Nichevo said... "You know the old gag about the (ugly, formless) Twin Towers, that they were the boxes the (beautiful, classic) Empire State Building and the Chrysler Building came in?"

You know, I changed my mind on this. I used to agree with that, but after 9/11 there was a "World Trade Center" calender sold by some charity in England, which seemed a worthy purchase. At any rate, it meant that I got to see it up front, and I came to realize that I'd never seen it in close detail; when you look at it in big sweeping shots of New York, it just looked ugly and gray and formless - two shoebloxes dumped incongruously in the cityscape. But looking at the close detail, I came to think that it was actually a quite attractive design that suffered from having been blown up to simply gargantuan scale and only ever viewed at that scale.

hdhouse said... "Simon said... 'Which is to say that I'm very, very nervous about it. Every time the media just lets Palin be Palin, she does fine. But if they screw around...' You mean like asking her questions?"

No, I mean like sandbagging her in the editing room. When you watch her speak at any event that's covered live, she does just fine. When the press has a chance to get the footage into the editing room, she comes off badly. This is not a coincidence. I've said this before, but after the media's behavior this season, no candidate should sit down with them unless there's a camcorder running and a contract that says that in the event that the media misrepresents what transpired in the slightest, the unedited tape goes on Youtube.

simon - I too have come to appreciate the WTC a little more now that it's gone. But the site plan was simply oblivious to human concerns. And I don't like small windows, either.

I am however coming back to the conclusion that the new WTC plans should be scrapped and the Twin Towers re-erected. Anything that will work, the site is a catastrophe.

That, or go with Trump's genius idea to build a new UN there, take the East River site back and build commercial/residential off 1st Av. Maybe a new convention center - take that Con Ed site at 40th too, perhaps.

2) In fact I can't believe they let her play you. --This pretty clearly means that Palin is way out of Fey's vavavavoom league.

3) Wow, you're cool, let me show you the SNL etchings --or something to that effect, after her rejoinder with the Stephen Baldwin crack.

Assuming sincerity on the Baldwin character's part (which I doubt, rather an unwillingness to confront in person; but perhaps he was just swiftly disarmed; and after all, his words were true), he is indeed saying she is prettier than Fey.

Anyway there was lots more funny than what you mentioned, Prof. Althouse, at least IMHO. I must have replayed it a dozen times or more. "'Cause I'm an animal! And I'm bigger than you!!!" Poehler was great, but upon replay I'm amazed her water didn't break. Then again that would have been Sarahesque too, eh?

BTW did anyone dig the bit about the plumber, not just funny but was his name Joe? I would say Palin was ahead on points through the skit, though if being persnickety, tone of voice might have some significance - e.g. the Obama! Ayers! chant being in a squeaky voice different from the bellow Poehler affected for the rest: I wonder if this was significant.

I had a girlfriend once who chair-danced - it was cute as hell.

Just wish the clip were bigger, or full-screenable, and less jerky. Or is that just my box at fault?