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Buoyant Romney Speaks of Victory in Florida

TAMPA, Fla. — Mitt Romney swept through a final day of campaigning here on Monday, energized by more polls showing him with a commanding lead in the Florida primary. He even allowed himself to break superstition and proclaim, “I’m beginning to feel we might win.”

Yet Mr. Romney could not help sneaking regular looks back at Newt Gingrich, who only a week ago seemed in position to deal him another big loss. In what amounted to a campaign record for the “Fastest Attack on a Republican Rival During a Campaign Stop,” he went after Mr. Gingrich in the first 30 seconds of a speech in Jacksonville in the morning, saying, “He was paid $1.6 million to be a lobbyist for Freddie Mac,” and adding, “Send him to the moon!”

Mr. Romney is not just playing to win here, but to win as big as possible, aides said, preferably by more than the 12-point margin Mr. Gingrich had in the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21. The Romney team wants to do so not just for bragging rights or out of ego, but to try to stave off a protracted nomination fight and undercut Mr. Gingrich’s promise to take the campaign all the way to the convention here in August.

Even if Mr. Romney wins here and dispels the immediate doubts about his ability to withstand the challenge from Mr. Gingrich, he will still face a critical question: Is this the beginning of the end of the Republican presidential nominating season — or just the beginning?

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“I'm beginning to feel we might win,” Mitt Romney said Monday as he campaigned in Florida.Credit
Todd Heisler/The New York Times

If he wins Florida, Mr. Romney will seem to be in a position to lay claim to his party’s nomination fairly quickly and begin focusing on trying to defeat President Obama, at least by the standards of any other campaign year.

But this is not any other year. A number of factors may combine to carry the contest well into the spring: the rise of the so-called “super PACs,” which can spend unlimited amounts of money to help the candidates of their choice; new Republican rules allowing even losers to claim percentages of delegates in more than half of the contests this year; and the never-say-die ethos of the Gingrich campaign.

So it was that when he was asked here if there was any chance he would drop out upon a loss here on Tuesday, Mr. Gingrich said in a brief interview, “None,” adding, “We’ll be in every state.”

The next chapter in the campaign begins almost immediately, with seven contests in February, starting with the Maine and Nevada caucuses on Saturday. Caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota, along with a nonbinding caucus in Missouri, take place before a 17-day break in the action. Primaries in Arizona and Michigan close the month on Feb. 28.

Mr. Romney’s campaign is building an organization for every contest. He is joined only by Representative Ron Paul of Texas, who has focused on recruiting supporters in caucus states. Mr. Gingrich and Rick Santorum are building their organizations on the fly, and are increasingly counting on help from local and national Tea Party groups and on outreach to evangelicals.

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Newt Gingrich met with supporters at the Tampa Jet Center on Monday.Credit
Marcus Yam for The New York Times

While Mr. Romney is poised to leave Florida with a wave of momentum and the biggest cache of delegates, his campaign is still a long way from the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the party’s nomination. Mr. Romney appears to hold an advantage in the February contests, which include several states that he won four years ago, but Mr. Gingrich could find friendlier terrain, especially in Southern states like Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma, in the “Super Tuesday” primaries on March 6.

With rules changes adopted by Republicans this year, Mr. Gingrich’s team is arguing that it can hang on through the potentially dark period of February to pose a real challenge in March. After long operating under a winner-take-all system, the party is this year allowing states to award delegates in proportion to the share of votes won by the candidates in the primaries and caucuses that take place before April 1. Under that system, finishing second can be nearly as fruitful as winning.

If Mr. Gingrich follows through with his pledge to stay in the race until the Republican National Convention in Tampa, he could pick up delegates in several states throughout the winter and spring. Several states pushed their contests back, including New York and Texas, which hold theirs in April, and California, which votes in June. This means hundreds of delegates will still technically be up for grabs.

Given all that, there is no immediate incentive for a candidate to withdraw at this point — and it was not entirely far-fetched for Mr. Gingrich, even on the eve of an expected loss, to be announcing plans for the nominating convention. Addressing a modest crowd of voters here, Mr. Gingrich said he had asked Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, who dropped out of the race and endorsed him two weeks ago, to help him develop “the strongest possible Republican platform plank for the summer.”

But such a protracted campaign will take money, and the continued patience and wherewithal of his own backers. Mr. Romney and his proxies are all but certain to increase pressure on Mr. Gingrich to step aside to help bolster the party’s chances of defeating Mr. Obama in the fall.

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Supporters of Mitt Romney said the Pledge of Allegiance at a rally Monday at The Villages, a retirement community in Florida.Credit
Todd Heisler/The New York Times

That pressure has already extended to the man most responsible for Mr. Gingrich’s continued viability, Sheldon Adelson, a wealthy casino executive who, with his wife, has contributed $10 million to the super PAC supporting Mr. Gingrich, Winning Our Future. So far, Mr. Adelson, who is based in Las Vegas, has resisted the pressure.

“We will compete in Nevada,” said Rick Tyler, a senior adviser to Winning Our Future.

Mr. Gingrich’s supporters, like former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, have urged voters to stick with him for the very purpose of making the race last longer. “I have great concern about the GOP establishment trying to anoint a candidate without the blessing of the grassroots,” Ms. Palin wrote on her Facebook page.

As the race moves to Nevada this week, Sharron Angle, a Tea Party acolyte who was the Republican Senate nominee in 2010, said Mr. Gingrich should have the “courage to continue despite the onslaught” against him. She has yet to endorse a candidate in the race.

Yet Mr. Gingrich on Monday received something of a blow from Gov. Rick Scott of Florida, a Republican who has remained neutral in the race and who was an early Tea Party success when he won office in 2010. Mr. Scott said on Fox Business, “I think it will be hard on Newt, if he doesn’t win Florida, to go forward.” He said that was because “Governor Romney has a good campaign going from the standpoint of good organization, and he’s raised a lot of money.”

Publicly at least, Mr. Romney has not shown any signs that he is concerned with Mr. Gingrich’s declaration that he will carry on. “That’s usually an indication that you think you’re going to lose,” Mr. Romney told reporters traveling with him, referring to Mr. Gingrich’s pledge to keep fighting all the way to the convention. “When you say, ‘I’m going to go on no matter what happens,’ that’s not a good sign.”

Ashley Parker contributed reporting from Jacksonville, Fla.

A version of this article appears in print on January 31, 2012, on page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Buoyant Romney Talks Of Victory On Eve Of Voting. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe