This site is not associated with, nor does it represent the views of any particular fire department.

The
Full Moon Effect

Many emergency
workers or ER personnel will tell you that the full moon has an effect on
their business. A web search will produce stories where police or EMT's
are quoted in newspapers or on television. The TV show "ER" even mentions
it in a episode. I have also heard EMS instructors talk of this in class,
as through it were just another health factor to consider.

Despite of the
fact that you can find many apocryphal or anecdotal stories attributing car accidents
or murders,
etc. to full moons,
any serious study of the myth
concludes that there is no correlation.

"'My own opinion
is that the case for full moon effects has not been made,' said Ivan Kelly,
a Canadian psychologist at the University
of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. Kelly has published 15 papers on
the topic and reviewed more than 50 others, including one that covered some
200 studies. He concludes that there is not
strong evidence of an effect."
-http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/12/1218_021218_moon.html

A very
good piece written by "Cecil Adams" says:

"There have been
lots of studies over the years, some of which have purported to show that
there really
is such a thing as a "lunar effect." For
example, one study claimed that an unusual number of traffic accidents occurred
during the evenings right around the full and new moons (Templer, Veleber,
and Brooner, 1982). But later researchers showed that during the time period
studied, a disproportionate number of full and new moons fell on weekends,
when traffic accidents are always higher."

"That's pretty much been the story with all lunar-effect claims--when you look
at them closely, they fall apart. Another study of homicides in Dade County,
Florida (Lieber and Sherin, 1972) claimed to have found there was an upsurge
in killings in the 24 hours before and after the full moon. Other researchers,
however, found that the Dade County researchers had used dubious statistical
methods. When the figures were reevaluated using proper methods, the alleged
pattern disappeared."
-
http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a2_337.html(Please read the entire article.)

There might be
several explanations of why this belief persists.

If an emergency
worker has a busy night he, or she, may also look up and see what is perceived
as
a "full
moon".
Of course it may not be a true full moon but that often does not stop this
person from drawing some conclusion.
The error in drawing a conclusion with this comes in many forms.

There are
at least five nights every 28 days that either are, or could be mistaken
for a “full moon”. It is very likely that one of these
nights will be busy. Weekends, paydays, holidays, or large events, such
as football games can occur on one of these days.

If, for
some reason the night of the full moon is NOT busy, then it is not noted.
(Because everyone is asleep.) It is common for someone
to determine
that the night is busy and to look up to see if there is a full moon.
It is
not common to check on the night sky, if it is not busy.

We tend
to remember the times it was busy and there was something that looked
like a full moon.

After we
see a large moon, on a busy night, EMTs almost NEVER check a source to
see if it really was a full moon.

Some animals
are busier on nights with full moons because they can see well. This may
be because there is more light to hunt by,
or it is easier to see
predators. Some scientists believe that this myth has survived
from the days before artificial light when humans may have been more
active
on nights with
full moons.

But what about the stories?

It is easy to
find apocryphal stories that seem to indicate that there is a correlation
between
the moon and crime, or other human behavior. Here
is one such story,
which is quoted
on Wikipedia to support the "phenomena":http://www.kypost.com/2002/jan/29/chase012902.html

In
the story above, the police, apparently did not attempt to look for other
reasons why there were several (three) crimes that night.
They just looked up and decided that the moon was the cause. Were
they saying they have crimes sprees every 29 1/2 days?* One
has to wonder what they would
have said, had a reporter asked
that
question.
But if their
observation
is correct, shouldn't they plan for this occurrence
and have a few extra people on duty that time each month?
Do you think that they pay overtime once a month? In
truth, they act as though incidents, or evenings, like
this
were
rare
and
not happening
12-13
times
a year.
Which is it? Perhaps we shouldn't accept this
as a valid scientific conclusion. Most stories, supporting
the cause and affect of the moon, are as easy as this
to discount.

*Note: The real
lunar cycle is 29.53 days. If this weren't true, and it was 28 days, the
full moon
would fall on the same day of the week, forever.

Emergency
Room workers are often quick to blame the full moon on a busy night.
This is especially true if the chief complaints
are unusual. One
does not have to work in an ER very long to hear someone say, "It
must be a full moon." Everyone will laugh but seldom
will someone actually check to see if it is a full
moon or not.
Nevertheless
the moon gets the credit.

Do your own research,
but do it right.

Go to your logbook
or computer and look at all the full moon
dates. Are
all of them
busy and unusual?
Of the
ones that
are busy or weird, how many can be explained
by other factors, i.e. weekends, holidays, paydays, etc.?
But don’t stop
there. To do a fair and accurate comparison you
need to look at all busy nights
and see what percentage of them
occurred on full moons. Then you need to look
at all weekends and see what percentage of them
were
full moons and which were not. Then you probably
need to compare every day of the week to every
day that was or wasn't a full moon. There are
still probably several other factors that must
be considered
and a host
of comparisons
made to be able
to draw a conclusion. A large time period
sample is also needed. A year is the minimum. Several years is better.

If
your department produces an annual report you may be easily able see when
your busiest
days are.
If you
are like many departments
you will see that
early Sunday mornings are your busiest hours for MVAs.

I would like to
believe it that the moon causes a predictable effect on human nature, however,
there is no evidence to support it.

full moon effect,
lunar effect, lunacy, lunatic, full moon ems runs, full moon and the er,
emergency
rooms and full moons, micu runs and full moons, traffic accidents and full
moons, murders and full moon