martes, octubre 23, 2007

The problem between Turkey and Kurds is not new. But the question is: why now?

Turkey had been very anxious to penetrate Iraqi soil to hunt down PKK terrorists, who want a free Kurdistan. Kurds are not only in Turkey, but inhabit also lands from Iraq and Iran. They had been traditional allies of US, asking even to be its 52nd state.

So the problem is not really new. But the circumstances are.

When US allies were preparing Iraqi war, NATO wanted Turkey to let troops pass through so they can bombed easily North Iraqi targets. But the pro-Islamist Government of Erdogan denied the pass, so the entire strategy had to be modified.

Not only the ideology of Erdogan has collaborated in present situation. They needed a motive and US Democrat-led Congress has provided it: the recommendation of a resolution recognising the Armenian holocaust. Not even Israel had made a move like that, fearing the consequences that it could have for the only Muslim ally in the area. Only France made something similar, with similar consequences.

Armenian-Americans have been fighting for years to have the massacre of Armenians be officially named genocide in the United States.

Concerns over a lasting cooling of relations between Turkey and the US had always prevented a genocide resolution being passed -- President Bush had failed to stick to his election promise to work towards the recognition of the genocide. He regularly declined to use the word genocide in his annual speech in April to mark the beginning of the massacres. In 2000 a similar draft resolution was pulled when US President Bill Clinton intervened at the last moment.

The fact that it has now been approved is a triumph for the "Armenian Lobby," if you want to call them that. Around 1.2 million Americans have Armenian forefathers and many of them grew up listening to the tales of the suffering of their people.

Armenian-Americans are particularly active in California, New Jersey and Michigan -- which happens to be the constituency of Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Speaker of the House. Her Californian colleague Adam Schiff, who promoted the resolution, has the issue to thank for his own political career. His predecessor in the constituency lost his seat when he failed to push through the resolution in 2000.

Armenian groups have been bombarding their representatives over the past few years with an unusually massive PR drive. Their most important umbrella group "Armenian Assembly of America" has 10,000 members and an annual budget of over $3.5 million. It employs four different influential PR firms in Washington to keep the suffering of the Armenians on the agenda in the US capital.

With an overwhelming majority of 507 votes (out of 550), the delegates to the Turkish Grand National Assembly handed the government a blank check, valid for one year, to order the army to conduct operations in northern Iraq.

[...] If the US Congress accepts the resolution, Turkish General Chief of Staff Yasar Büyükanit said in an interview over the weekend, "military relations between Turkey and the United States will never be the same." Washington is apparently taking Ankara's threat seriously. An ultra-nationalist party, the MHP, is already calling on the government to close both the US air base at Incirlik in southern Turkey and its borders to Iraq.

Both actions would deal a severe blow to US troops in Iraq. The Pentagon processes close to 70 percent of its entire re-supply effort through Incirlik, and at least a quarter of the gasoline the US Army consumes is brought into Iraq on tanker trucks from Turkey. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon is already looking into alternate routes through Jordan and Kuwait, despite the fact that both would be inconvenient and dangerous.

For Bush, a great deal hinges on whether he manages to convince his Kurdish allies in northern Iraq to curtail the Kurdish-Turkish PKK's attacks in Turkey, at least temporarily. Turkish government spokesman Cemil Cicek said yesterday: "Our hope is that we will not have to use this motion, but it is clear that an invasion will follow the next spectacular attack by the PKK."

Anyway, the Kurdish "militants" from PKK ambushed some soldiers in the Turkish-Iraqi frontier, giving Ankara the motive is needed.

A brazen ambush by Kurdish militants that left at least 12 Turkish soldiers dead touched off a major escalation in Turkey-Iraq tensions on Sunday, bringing fears that Turkey would retaliate immediately by sending troops across the border into Iraq. But Turkey’s prime minister said he delayed a decision, after Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice personally intervened.

The ambush by a large group of Kurdish militants about three miles from the border with Iraq early on Sunday was seen as a direct provocation on the part of the militants, who have increasingly staged raids into Turkey from hide-outs in the mountains of northern Iraq.

It was the most serious attack in recent memory by the militants, separatist fighters of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, or P.K.K., and came only four days after the Turkish Parliament formally approved contingency plans for military retaliation across the border.

The Turkish military struck back inside Turkey, killing as many as 32 Kurdish militants, a government spokesman said. But the Kurdish ambush still drew strong public outrage here, and its brazenness could effectively force the government to make good on its warning to send forces into northern Iraq.

Such action by Turkey, a NATO ally, would be extremely embarrassing for the United States, which has military control over the territory that the Turks are threatening to invade. Moreover, a Turkish advance into northern Iraq would instantly bring fresh troubles to a country where the United States is preoccupied with the war. And it would complicate stability in the broader region, which is generally antagonistic to American policy. Iran made remarks criticizing American policy on Sunday. Syria did the same four days before.

So the question is: why Nancy Pelosi and their fellow Democrats insisted in passing this resolution now? The main reason is political, it has nothing to do with a real worry about the Armenian massacre itself, but only with the possibility of Armenian people not voting in next year general election.

And also to give a blow to Bush, pointing him as someone who does not fulfill his promises, as he inserted that as a promise in 2004's elections program.

The problem? The resolution's draft does not blame the Ottoman Empire, but Turkey. So they are making responsible today's Turks about something that happened 92 years ago.

Pelosi is the class of woman who gives reasons to chauvinist men to continue being chauvinist. What an idiot!

Other information regarding Turkey:

Best-selling Turkish book claims Jews behind Islamists @ Elder of Ziyon. "The book is called The Children of Moses. Its cover shows Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan inside a Star of David. Reporter Mustafa Akyol writes that this is the first in a series of four volumes. The book argues that Erdogan and his conservative allies in the pro-Islamic party are in fact crypto-Jews with secret ties to the conspiratorial forces of "global Zionism." What I ever say: please give this people the possibility to write a film script... My goodness...