A progressive outlook on politics in Australia and abroad

All he needs is the Post-it Notes

If the Liberals loses as they seem about to lose under Howard, the Prime Minister will not only take with him political odium, but more than half the party – and its next best hopes. Howard wouldn’t be sacrificing himself for the party, but the party for himself.

He assumes a change of leadership can soften the damage now. I don’t see anyone the Libs could put in charge (and certainly not Costello) who would take the sting out of this election. At this stage, they would need a major shift of policy platform – and they don’t have time to do that without it seeming completely half-arsed.

Fact:

If the loss is as great as the polls suggest, Costello won’t be the Liberal’s next best hope. He will either quit to make real money for his family while he still can, or be ground down by years in demoralised opposition.

Isn’t this going to happen either way? Andrew seems to assume a new leader could bring a 10% swing just by virtue of their character. Costello can’t do that, and neither can any of the other contenders.

Fact:

If Howard was not Prime Minister but Opposition Leader and facing these polling figures, he’d be toppled today. This minute. Only the inertia of incumbancy is stopping the Liberals from doing the only thing left from which it might hope to contest the election as equals to Labor.

Much as it pains me to say it, Howard has a track record of pulling rabbits out of a hat. The Libs are incumbents because he has managed it before – so now, why is it not surprising that they would rather stay with him than roll the dice on an untested leader who is likely to lose and then have to be replaced or try to fight back three years later?

Fact:

Howard must go. If he’s in the mood for sacrifice, let him sacrifice now his ego and stand aside. If the Liberals can salvage anything from this disaster, it can be saving one of its greatest leaders from the humilitation of catastrophic defeat and the loss of his own seat. Preserving the memory of Howard as a giant of the party will help tide the survivors over the years of darkness ahead.

Quitting because it looked like he was going to lose would be much more humiliating. And a sacrifice is only worth it if it achieves something – I don’t see Howard quitting at this point bringing this back.