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Purple state feds

According to the experts, tomorrow's election is already over in most states.
Over even before the votes are cast and counted. The pros say they know which way
voters in New York, California, Maryland and Indiana
will go. So...

Many believe the election will be decided by swing-state voters:
Places like Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada,
Colorado, Wisconsin and maybe Iowa. The conventional wisdom
is that Ohio is the jewel in the crown, the must-win state. Given their
travel schedules, the candidates and their planners seem to agree. Either that or
they sure like the fast food in Cleveland.

Those so-called swing states share a common language (with
varying accents) with their neighbors and each other. But in many ways, they are
also very different geographically and in make-up from the others. One thing they
have in common is a significant number of well-educated, well-paid eligible
voters, all of whom have jobs. As a percentage of the population, this group is
substantial.

Pollsters, who typically question 1,000 or fewer people to get
their results, have focused on what they consider key groups by sex, race,
ethnicity and sometimes religion. One NPR poll focused on 466 people. Some poll
people randomly. Others go with those who say they are likely to vote.

Whether they are dead right or whistlin' in the dark, the pros as
usual have left out out one key group of well-educated, well-paid, strategically
located group of people:

You.

Because of the nature of the workforce, most nonpostal federal
workers are professional, technical or administrative. Uncle Sam doesn't do
retail. There is no equivalent to Wal-Mart or McDonald's in government. Slightly
more than half of private-sector employees have some college education compared to
74 percent in the federal government, according to the Partnership for Public
Service.

Virginia (147,000-plus federal employees) , Florida (90,100) and
Ohio (53,500) rank among the top ten states in numbers of federal employees. The
others are California, Texas, Maryland, Georgia, Pennsylvania, New York and
Washington. If Pennsylvania is thrown into the toss-up column, its 70,000 feds
— if they vote alike — could make the difference. In fact, they could
in many states where it is statistically too close to call.

On Thursday, one above-the-fold lead story was headlined "GOP
sees new hope in 3 states" adding that they were Pennsylvania, Michigan and
Minnesota, states with federal employees numbering 69,000; 30,400 and
18,300, respectively. Not a huge number but...

Despite the best efforts of several generations of federal and
postal union leaders, there is no evidence that the majority of federal workers
— or retirees — automatically favor one party or candidate over
another. Union members tend to support Democratic candidates. But the vast
majority of feds don't belong to unions.

For politicians who claim to want a smart, educated electorate
— and many are not looking for that group — it is hard to beat the
federal family. It is diverse, well-paid, fully employed, well-trained and highly
educated. All of the working G-men and women are old enough to vote, and they fit
the demographics of people who are most likely to vote. Feds represent a cross-
section of the nation (only Hispanics are underrepresented in the federal
workforce). Retired federal workers are found in large numbers in Maryland,
D.C., Virginia, Florida, Texas and California.

While there is no fed vote (perhaps a good thing), civil servants,
as likely voters, do have the numbers to make a difference in purple states, where
the winning margin is razor thin. Remember Florida in 2000 when 537 votes (out of
more than more than 5 million cast) won the day. And the election.

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