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Slow storm season expected

4 hurricanes predicted by experts

4 hurricanes predicted by experts

FORT LAUDERDALE — The 2012 hurricane season should be considerably slower than normal with 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two major, Phil Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University said Wednesday.

The average season sees 12 named storms, including six hurricanes, three major.

The climatologists expect the tropical Atlantic to be cooler than it has been in recent years. They also say there is a “fairly high likelihood” that El Nino, the atmospheric force that suppresses storm formation, will develop by the summer.

The last time four or fewer hurricanes developed was in 2009, when three hurricanes formed. Before that, in 2002, three hurricanes also developed.

Despite the tame prediction, the two CSU climatologists warn that a slow season doesn’t mean that a hurricane won’t threaten the U.S. coastline.

“All vulnerable coastal residents should make the same hurricane preparations every year, regardless of how active or inactive the seasonal forecast is. It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season,” Klotzbach said.

Hurricane Andrew is a prime example of how powerful storms can strike even in slow years. The Category 5 system devastated southern Miami-Dade County 20 years ago in 1992 — a year that otherwise saw only six named storms.

Klotzbach and Gray predict that tropical cyclone activity in 2012 will be about 75 percent of the average season. By comparison, tropical activity in 2011, when 19 named storms formed, was 145 percent of the average season.

As part of their forecast, the CSU team predicts:

■ A 42 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline. The long-term average probability is 52 percent.

■ A 24 percent chance that a major hurricane will hit the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula. The long-term average is 31 percent.

■ A 24 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas. The long-term average is 30 percent.

WSI, a part of The Weather Channel, also calls for a relatively tame season, although one that would be closer to normal, with 12 named storms, including seven hurricanes.

Aside from Hurricane Irene, which struck North Carolina and caused major flooding in the Northeast last year, the United States has enjoyed three relatively calm storm seasons. Prior to Irene, the last hurricane to strike the U.S. coast was Category 2 Ike, which struck Texas in September 2008.

Florida, historically the most hurricane battered state in the nation, also has been extremely lucky. It has gone a record six seasons without seeing a hurricane strike. The last hurricane to hit Florida was Wilma in October 2005.

Gray said despite the below-average forecast, the Atlantic basin remains in an era of tropical intensity, the result of a natural cycle. He said he expects that era “to continue for the next 10 to 15 years or so.”