The forecast used the UK-Elect v9.2 method, which is based on Uniform
Swing, but with allowances made for many other factors such as recent
constituency polls and by-elections. An experimentally large amount
of incumbency support for smaller parties was configured, so it
probably represents the upper limit of what might be achievable for the
Liberal Democrats at current poll percentages. The forecast seats for
each of the main British parties were: Lab 278 Conservative 266 SNP 45 LD 37 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1.

Of course, the next General Election is not until May, so there is still time for much to change!

Notes: The forecast base was the 2010 General Election, although
gains are compared with the current situation (at February 2nd 2015).
The UK-Elect v9.2 forecasting method was used. This is based on Uniform National Swing, but the
forecast was made on a separate regional basis for Scotland, Wales, London, and Great Britain,
with many other factors taken into consideration, including by-election results, local constituency
opinion polls, tactical voting, and enhanced support for incumbent parties. Options to compensate for some of the oddities
of UNS were also set - e.g. to prevent the forecasting of negative vote totals. Extra incumbency support was enabled -i.e.
both the support built into the UK-Elect v9.2 method, and additional party and candidate-specific support.
This tended to benefit Liberal Democrat MPs, so,in current
circumstances (barring any major increase in their poll ratings)
this forecast can be regarded as representing the likely realistic
upper limit for the forecast number of Liberal Democrat MPs.
Multiple iterations were used to achieve the correct target percentages.
See
UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions
and
UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect
for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques, or if you have a
Windows-based PC then try some forecasting yourself using the UK-Elect Trial Version
UK-Elect v9.2 users can reproduce the above forecast by doing a
UK-Elect v9.2 "Guided Forecast" and specifying the separate
percentages for Scotland, Wales, London and the overall GB percentages.
Note that additional tactical voting and incumbency support
was enabled, although the UK-Elect v9.2 method includes built-in support
for incumbency in any case, so this resulted in
a considerable amount of forecast additional support for incumbent
parties and MPs. UK-Elect v9.2(8) was used - users of earlier
versions of UK-Elect 9.2 may need to re-download their copy to achieve
an identical result - this should be done no later than
16th February.
Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and
included for completeness only.Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are
sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one,
or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email
us on
support@ukelect.co.uk.

1 comment:

UKIP 1 seat ,really ? I assume you will be putting a huge wager with William hill on UKIP getting only 1 seat ,tell you what i'll stand that bet ,for everyone they get over 1 seat you give me 2/1 is it a deal ?

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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