Thought this was really cool until I noticed the Northern Illinois thing. Obviously this needs some work. I noticed TAMU wasn't listed under the Capital One bowl at all either, which was being projected by somebody a few days ago.

Cap One and Outback bowls usually take a team from the SEC East, while Cotton Bowl and Chick-Fil-A usually take SEC West teams. I don't think it is part of the contracts but it just seems to work out that way most of the time.

doesn't Michigan still have a shot at a BCS game other than rose if we win out? we should slip into the top 14 pretty realistcally and with so much of the SEC all up there you would tihnk we would prolly get a look over some of the other options

In almost all of these instances, the team in question would drop below us and we need to climb 7 spots to be BCS eligible. If Michigan is in the top-14 and a second Pac-12 or ACC team is not, we are guaranteed a bid. This doesn't include the less likely possibilities of Nebraska losing to Wisco in the BTCG, Oklahoma losing to WVU or OK St., or Louisville blowing one of their last couple.

At this point, if we beat OSU, I'd go so far as to say we have a better chance than not of getting an at-large bid. If we do, it will hinge on Clemson-South Carolina and if there are any Pac-12 upsets.

...obviously we must win out, thus ending the regular season at 9-3. At that point, there are two paths to a BCS bowl at-large bid:

1) Nebraska loses one game sending us to the B1G title game which we must win. We would drop out of contention with a season-ending loss, a la MSU last year.

2) Nebraska wins out, leaving us with a 9-3 record and a little time off to watch the scenario you outlined above play out.

So my question here is: which is the more favorable situation for Michigan? Not necessarily the most desired situation, but the most favorable. I would argue all day that I would rather have a shot at the Rose Bowl in our own hands (again a la MSU last year), but is that the safest option? Taking our extrem fandom out of this, what would the statisticians say about Michigan's rooting interests regarding Nebraska in the final two weeks?

Is the risk of a 4th loss in the B1G title game worth the benefit of going to the Rose Bowl instead of a different BCS bowl? I guess it would depend on how much you value the Rose Bowl versus any other BCS bowl berth.

Funny thing - if we play in the Citrus Bowl, we'd be playing the #3 SEC team, certainly a top-10 team. If we make a BCS bowl, our opponent options are most likely Louisville, Florida St or the #2 SEC team (who will be only negligibly better than the #3 SEC team).