Contrary to the fanboy opinion that Guild Wars 2 is doing just fine, thriving, growing and there is nothing wrong with the game, do yourself a favor and look at the facts. Guild Wars 2 is down over 20% from last quarter and close to 80% from two quarters ago.

The facts are the facts. Guild Wars 2 is not thriving. It is not growing. it is shrinking. The worst part is that there hasn't even been an influx of new MMO's released. As soon as TESO, Wildstar and Everquest Next start to hit the markets, this game will be nothing more than a niche game with a substantially smaller population and sales than Guild Wars 1 ever had.

Everyone that thinks that Guild Wars 2 will ever see the same sales numbers are GW1 are wrong.

This game is nothing but a flash in the pan. The numbers prove it. The doubters were right. End of story.

It's simple really. Like the game? Play it. Don't like it? Move along.

I don't know why both sides make such a big deal of it...why fanbois feel the need to prove that the game is thriving and why the naysayers feel the need to show otherwise. Frankly I don't care for either opinion.

As with anything in life, the principle is simple. Consider that time is limited. And then decide for yourself: is this *really* worth my time?

Turns out that writing this response is hardly even worth a minute of my time, so I'll just stop here and do something else.

It's simple really. Like the game? Play it. Don't like it? Move along.

I don't know why both sides make such a big deal of it...why fanbois feel the need to prove that the game is thriving and why the naysayers feel the need to show otherwise. Frankly I don't care for either opinion.

As with anything in life, the principle is simple. Consider that time is limited. And then decide for yourself: is this *really* worth my time?

Turns out that writing this response is hardly even worth a minute of my time, so I'll just stop here and do something else.

That's not really his point. His point, while poorly framed, is that the game's profits are shrinking. They are not growing. ArenaNet's implementations are failing to sustain profits and fight attrition. There is no growth. And with any product that is failing, especially in a corporate environment, it will not receive the same amount of funding from the parent company, especially if that amount of funding exceeds what revenue it is currently generating.

And that ultimately means content will continue to suffer. That means that what we are getting now will have a lower quality (or quantity) than what we are getting now. And currently all we've been getting are holiday events, focused around one area or map, with random crap being dropped into the various zones.

It's okay to enjoy crap if you're willing to admit it's crap.Every patch is like ArenaNet walking out onto the stage of the International Don't Kitten Up Championship, and then proceeding to shiv itself in the stomach 30 times while screaming "IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD! IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD!"

I don't see any proof of decline in activity in those numbers. What needs to be kept in mind is that this is a buy to play game, meaning that this is expected as the target audience gets saturated with box sales and the numbers are settling at gem shop income numbers. Calling the game a success or a failure is far to early as three points of data is not nearly enough to say anything on the subject.

As some people talk about shrinking profits I feel the need to point out that when using a business model not based on subscriptions you EXPECT declining profit for the reasons I mentioned above. To say that it is failing to sustain profits is groundless as we have no idea what numbers A-Net and NCsoft expect to be stable and sustainable.

I don't see any proof of decline in activity in those numbers. What needs to be kept in mind is that this is a buy to play game, meaning that this is expected as the target audience gets saturated with box sales and the numbers are settling at gem shop income numbers. Calling the game a success or a failure is far to early as three points of data is not nearly enough to say anything on the subject.

As some people talk about shrinking profits I feel the need to point out that when using a business model not based on subscriptions you EXPECT declining profit for the reasons I mentioned above. To say that it is failing to sustain profits is groundless as we have no idea what numbers A-Net and NCsoft expect to be stable and sustainable.

Numbers are numbers however, and the numbers are shrinking. Maybe that's within the company's projections, maybe it's not. The question becomes what NCSoft's plans are for GW2. Whether they intend to foster growth, or apparently just sustain the current model for as long as it continues to be profitable without fostering growth combating attrition. As players, we have a vested interest in the game growing, to extend its longevity.

You also have to take into account NCSoft's tendencies to cut games despite being profitable (Tabula Rasa & CoH), because they believe the resources can be redirected to more profitable investments. They also have games constantly coming up (relative to most release cycles)... WildStar within 2 years of GW2 coming out. Blade & Soul coming to the US whenever. While GW2 has made up a substantial part of their recovery over the last year, they aren't reliant on the IP. Lineage still makes up the bulk of their profits. Things can turn south pretty quickly.

It's okay to enjoy crap if you're willing to admit it's crap.Every patch is like ArenaNet walking out onto the stage of the International Don't Kitten Up Championship, and then proceeding to shiv itself in the stomach 30 times while screaming "IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD! IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD!"

Numbers are numbers however, and the numbers are shrinking. Maybe that's within the company's projections, maybe it's not. The question becomes what NCSoft's plans are for GW2. Whether they intend to foster growth, or apparently just sustain the current model for as long as it continues to be profitable without fostering growth combating attrition. As players, we have a vested interest in the game growing, to extend its longevity.

You also have to take into account NCSoft's tendencies to cut games despite being profitable (Tabula Rasa & CoH), because they believe the resources can be redirected to more profitable investments. They also have games constantly coming up (relative to most release cycles)... WildStar within 2 years of GW2 coming out. Blade & Soul coming to the US whenever. While GW2 has made up a substantial part of their recovery over the last year, they aren't reliant on the IP. Lineage still makes up the bulk of their profits. Things can turn south pretty quickly.

You are absolutely right that we are vested and have a reason to keep an interested eye on the numbers. I was mostly opposed to the OP's way of presenting this subject as it was painfully subjective. As you say the biggest threat at the moment is not dwindling numbers as it is expected and we don't know what levels are expected, but rather the impulsiveness of NCsoft.

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 02:40 PM

Are we really on this? Again? For the 50th time? I have proof the game is dead look at my statistics but ignore those others over there that point out my argument is flawed, they're just fanbois. Like really this is starting to become old hat and alittle pathetic. For months it's been the game is dying yet amazingly people are having fun and revenue from the cash shop is steady or increasing. I get that you hate the game, and you can't tell me you don't, whatever Anet does is wrong. They give free stuff they are trying to manipulate you into spending money. They bring out better content, "we'll it still sucks and I'm not happy". We get that your not happy, we get that you think the game sucks, but is there a point where you will move on from reiterating this every day?

And yes some mod will do something to my post cause I'm saying this is stupid. They seem to revel in people complaining ad nauseum. Used to be a time when you could get useful information or a real discussion now it's just this. But it's cool I'm sure you will be back in a few days with some new game is dying post while the rest of us enjoy the game and others move on with their lives.

You are absolutely right that we are vested and have a reason to keep an interested eye on the numbers. I was mostly opposed to the OP's way of presenting this subject as it was painfully subjective. As you say the biggest threat at the moment is not dwindling numbers as it is expected and we don't know what levels are expected, but rather the impulsiveness of NCsoft.

And general lack of sense. Lineage is the Korean WoW. It's a fluke that cropped up over a decade ago and is what's sustaining the company through several games that have failed to replace it. Since they cannot make good games, they resort to standard corporate lizard-brain thoughts, which is to churn out over-hyped (and GW2 was over-hyped, WildStar seems tame by comparison, probably because its new IP) games and take the initial burst of profits and leave post-launch support on the rocks.

This should probably be combined with the talk going on in the subreddit discussing ArenaNet's personnel management. It's been suggested that they pay well below the industry standard and also rely heavily on outsourced work. While this can make you fairly agile with resource, there are issues such as bringing folks up to speed and having a consistent design philosophy. Which might also explain why some things seem incongruous in the game.

Castaa, on 14 August 2013 - 02:44 PM, said:

GW2 has sold 3-4 million copies at nearly $40-50 each. That's not just another MMO failure.

SWTOR sold roughly 2.4 million copies. Copies sold is not a bar for 'not a failure' in terms of MMOs.

It's okay to enjoy crap if you're willing to admit it's crap.Every patch is like ArenaNet walking out onto the stage of the International Don't Kitten Up Championship, and then proceeding to shiv itself in the stomach 30 times while screaming "IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD! IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD!"

And general lack of sense. Lineage is the Korean WoW. It's a fluke that cropped up over a decade ago and is what's sustaining the company through several games that have failed to replace it. Since they cannot make good games, they resort to standard corporate lizard-brain thoughts, which is to churn out over-hyped (and GW2 was over-hyped, WildStar seems tame by comparison, probably because its new IP) games and take the initial burst of profits and leave post-launch support on the rocks.

This should probably be combined with the talk going on in the subreddit discussing ArenaNet's personnel management. It's been suggested that they pay well below the industry standard and also rely heavily on outsourced work. While this can make you fairly agile with resource, there are issues such as bringing folks up to speed and having a consistent design philosophy. Which might also explain why some things seem incongruous in the game.

SWTOR sold roughly 2.4 million copies. Copies sold is not a bar for 'not a failure' in terms of MMOs.

I know nothing about what you mention about the internal machinations of A-Net, but I must admit that I have had a nervous nag in the back of my head since O'Brien was left as sole founder still on board.

I don't give a thing about it. GW2 is shining and growing - fine. GW2 is shrinking and falling down - fine too. As long as they release some interesting content and there's something to do and there are people to play with - I'll play it and it's not your business.

Do you want us to stop playing GW2 or what? I see no point in creating topic like that, really.

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 03:13 PM

MazingerZ, on 14 August 2013 - 02:49 PM, said:

SWTOR sold roughly 2.4 million copies. Copies sold is not a bar for 'not a failure' in terms of MMOs.

Yet your using slowing of copies sold as a bar for failure. There's some hypocrisy there.

Wardi, on 14 August 2013 - 03:05 PM, said:

I don't give a thing about it. GW2 is shining and growing - fine. GW2 is shrinking and falling down - fine too. As long as they release some interesting content and there's something to do and there are people to play with - I'll play it and it's not your business.

Do you want us to stop playing GW2 or what? I see no point in creating topic like that, really.

Mhenlo mentioned this in another topic about the game being dead, it's about him being right. Till we all acknowledge the game is dead and we were wrong it will probably continue.

This game is nothing but a flash in the pan. The numbers prove it. The doubters were right. End of story.

....ok? And if it is? Does that mean that the people who are enjoying it should just stop playing it? Or maybe that means that those who stopped playing it should give it another try before it goes away? Let's face it, things come and go in life, especially video games. Some quicker and sooner than others, some stick around longer, but in the end, gamers move on.

I personally will continue to enjoy GW2 until it goes away. Then I'll move onto a different game that I enjoy and won't regret the time I've spent playing because I found it fun. I've gotten more than my money's worth out of the game. 800 hours worth of play out of a $60 game plus some gem purchases here and there? To me, that's worth it. I know of no other single player, MMO, or video game in general that I played that much for that little amount of cash.

Are you implying that you won't ruin any more of these threads with your off-topic comments? Are you done?

I will keep playing GW2 even though I finished the story content (haha, pun intended). I will keep playing GW2 even though it is down by 20% from last quarter. I will keep playing until I'm no longer having fun and don't find the game worth my while.

While the approach to this topic is a bit more, shall we say...discordant...than I would prefer it, I do think the numbers are important and I hope they can be discussed in a meaningful way without petty vindictiveness. (I mean, this is just a game afterall. Right? It's not like learning a major charity is insolvent.)

One question I have is what, if anything, can we infer about the current living story model as a viable means of revenue? Is ANet playing the best development hand they have at the moment? Or are there better ways to increase revenue?

I suppose this also plays into the already voiced concerns about NCSoft's willingness to kill profitable games. Is that a real concern with GW2? I'm asking honestly, as I didn't follow the CoH debacle in great detail.

SWTOR sold roughly 2.4 million copies. Copies sold is not a bar for 'not a failure' in terms of MMOs.

And 2.4 isn't 3-4 and still climbing. It seems reasonable it'll reach at least 5-6 million before it ultimately goes F2P (as SWTOR has done). So ultimately double the sales or more isn't a valid comparison of failure.

Wow, people so upset about facts. I'm merely pointing out for every person out there that says that every naysayer is wrong and GW2 is fine and that it will easily surpass GW1 sales and longevity is wrong. That simple.

The numbers don't lie. In a completely non-competitive market, Guild Wars 2 is in rapid decline. That says a lot. Once other MMO's hit the market, GW2 will be a thing of the past. It will neither have any of the longevity of GW1 or the box sales.

As Sgt. Joe Friday once said, "Just stating the facts..."

Castaa, on 14 August 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

And 2.4 isn't 3-4 and still climbing. It seems reasonable it'll reach at least 5-6 million before it ultimately goes F2P. So ultimately double the sales or more isn't a valid comparison of failure.

3 million. Not 4 million. And, not really climbing at anything more than a snail's pace if at all, according to the numbers posted. 0.5 million really isn't a significant difference. Both games sold a ton of box sales and both are failures. Initial box sales have nothing to do with anything at this point.

Yet your using slowing of copies sold as a bar for failure. There's some hypocrisy there.

Sharply declining profits. SWTOR, on a sub model, would be consistently selling the value of a boxed copy every quarter at 15 a month. They couldn't maintain subs, so their profits dropped after the initial box sale decline.

Following the box sale decline, GW2's profits fell 80% from two quarters ago and 20% from the previous quarter. I'm not basing it on boxed sales, I'm basing it on math.

It's okay to enjoy crap if you're willing to admit it's crap.Every patch is like ArenaNet walking out onto the stage of the International Don't Kitten Up Championship, and then proceeding to shiv itself in the stomach 30 times while screaming "IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD! IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD!"

You should, because the #1 most important content of any MMO is players. If the game is tanking, players will leave. Players leaving becomes a snowball effect and soon, there is no one to play with. And, if that is OK with you, then I would really suggest some single player games that are much better.

Graka, on 14 August 2013 - 03:13 PM, said:

Yet your using slowing of copies sold as a bar for failure. There's some hypocrisy there.

In the real world, when revenue drops 20% in a quarter, that is a big problem. I understand that revenue dropping from the quarter the game was introduced is normal, but 80% is still a giant freaking number.

Do yourself a favor and ask your company if they could sustain business business if it dropped 20% each quarter. My guess is they couldn't. No business can. That is what we call failure my friend.

Loperdos, on 14 August 2013 - 03:14 PM, said:

....ok? And if it is? Does that mean that the people who are enjoying it should just stop playing it? Or maybe that means that those who stopped playing it should give it another try before it goes away? Let's face it, things come and go in life, especially video games. Some quicker and sooner than others, some stick around longer, but in the end, gamers move on.

I personally will continue to enjoy GW2 until it goes away. Then I'll move onto a different game that I enjoy and won't regret the time I've spent playing because I found it fun. I've gotten more than my money's worth out of the game. 800 hours worth of play out of a $60 game plus some gem purchases here and there? To me, that's worth it. I know of no other single player, MMO, or video game in general that I played that much for that little amount of cash.

You seem to be reading your own thoughts into my post. That is what we call a strawman argument. Simply said, the people who think that GW2 is a thriving successful game that is continuing to sell monumental amounts of games are wrong. That is all I'm saying. It proves that there is something fundamentally wrong with the game that is keeping it from being successful. So, anyone that thinks that the people who voiced negative opinions about the game are the "vocal minority" are simply wrong. The numbers prove it. If you enjoy the game, as I said in a previous post, you should still be worried. Because, if enough people stop playing, what happens then? Who do you play with the massively multiplayer game that is no longer massively multiplayer?

jonasklk, on 14 August 2013 - 02:25 PM, said:

I don't really see the point of this topic. You Think the new MMO's will be any better? Or are you trying to prove something that is natural for a B2P game? :S

Is it natural? Proof?

Juanele, on 14 August 2013 - 02:16 PM, said:

What is a failed mmo?

One that has neither longevity nor successful revenue sustainability. Same as any other business I guess?

A_Gen, on 14 August 2013 - 02:11 PM, said:

I don't see any proof of decline in activity in those numbers. What needs to be kept in mind is that this is a buy to play game, meaning that this is expected as the target audience gets saturated with box sales and the numbers are settling at gem shop income numbers. Calling the game a success or a failure is far to early as three points of data is not nearly enough to say anything on the subject.

As some people talk about shrinking profits I feel the need to point out that when using a business model not based on subscriptions you EXPECT declining profit for the reasons I mentioned above. To say that it is failing to sustain profits is groundless as we have no idea what numbers A-Net and NCsoft expect to be stable and sustainable.

How do you not correlate lost revenue as lost activity? And, in the end, why does that even matter? Remember that City of Heroes wasn't far off much with their revenue as GW2 is currently at now. Companies need to make money to keep going. If they continue to lose money, they because unprofitable and unsustainable.

XRay, on 14 August 2013 - 01:52 PM, said:

The only game of the ones you mentioned that is showing promise is TESO. Wildstar is a joke and Everquest will hardly sit well with the oh so demanding mmo players.

That is really subjective don't you think? I mean, the game you seem to like is a game that is tanking hard. Maybe your opinion isn't as great as you seem to think it is?

Wow, people so upset about facts. I'm merely pointing out for every person out there that says that every naysayer is wrong and GW2 is fine and that it will easily surpass GW1 sales and longevity is wrong. That simple.

The numbers don't lie. In a completely non-competitive market, Guild Wars 2 is in rapid decline. That says a lot. Once other MMO's hit the market, GW2 will be a thing of the past. It will neither have any of the longevity of GW1 or the box sales.

As Sgt. Joe Friday once said, "Just stating the facts..."

3 million. Not 4 million. And, not really climbing at anything more than a snail's pace if at all, according to the numbers posted. 0.5 million really isn't a significant difference. Both games sold a ton of box sales and both are failures. Initial box sales have nothing to do with anything at this point.

I think your choice of wording and tone is the issue. Throwing around the term failure is overly harsh and possibly inaccurate.

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 03:39 PM

Mhenlo, on 14 August 2013 - 03:34 PM, said:

You should, because the #1 most important content of any MMO is players. If the game is tanking, players will leave. Players leaving becomes a snowball effect and soon, there is no one to play with. And, if that is OK with you, then I would really suggest some single player games that are much better.

In the real world, when revenue drops 20% in a quarter, that is a big problem. I understand that revenue dropping from the quarter the game was introduced is normal, but 80% is still a giant freaking number.

Do yourself a favor and ask your company if they could sustain business business if it dropped 20% each quarter. My guess is they couldn't. No business can. That is what we call a failure friend.

Did what you asked and my boss looked over the Q2 report and estimates for future sales in other countries and revenue. You know what's funny? He just bought stock in ncsoft cause he sees a lot of futures potential in this "GW2 game the kids are playing these days". But I'm sure you will now tell me how my boss which runs 5 companies successfully for 20 years is an idiot.

That is really subjective don't you think? I mean, the game you seem to like is a game that is tanking hard. Maybe your opinion isn't as great as you seem to think it is?

I'm sorry, but if your forum posts about gw2 are objective then I should probably notify Oxford and Cambridge to edit the meaning of that word in their dictionaries. And if you failed to notice I didn't say a single thing about gw2 in my post, only expressed my opinion about games that are about to get released, so it's quite funny that you get all giddy about me being defensive about gw2.

On another note, I find it hard to take you or your posts seriously, since for the last few months there's been nothing different in their content. Guild wars 2 sucks, it fails, it's awful, yadda yadda yadda. It's ok, we get your point. Now I suggest you move on to one of those better single player games you seem to know a lot about or go to play a mmo that suits your needs.

You should, because the #1 most important content of any MMO is players. If the game is tanking, players will leave. Players leaving becomes a snowball effect and soon, there is no one to play with. And, if that is OK with you, then I would really suggest some single player games that are much better.

In the real world, when revenue drops 20% in a quarter, that is a big problem. I understand that revenue dropping from the quarter the game was introduced is normal, but 80% is still a giant freaking number.

Do yourself a favor and ask your company if they could sustain business business if it dropped 20% each quarter. My guess is they couldn't. No business can. That is what we call failure my friend.

You seem to be reading your own thoughts into my post. That is what we call a strawman argument. Simply said, the people who think that GW2 is a thriving successful game that is continuing to sell monumental amounts of games are wrong. That is all I'm saying. It proves that there is something fundamentally wrong with the game that is keeping it from being successful. So, anyone that thinks that the people who voiced negative opinions about the game are the "vocal minority" are simply wrong. The numbers prove it. If you enjoy the game, as I said in a previous post, you should still be worried. Because, if enough people stop playing, what happens then? Who do you play with the massively multiplayer game that is no longer massively multiplayer?

Is it natural? Proof?

One that has neither longevity nor successful revenue sustainability. Same as any other business I guess?

How do you not correlate lost revenue as lost activity? And, in the end, why does that even matter? Remember that City of Heroes wasn't far off much with their revenue as GW2 is currently at now. Companies need to make money to keep going. If they continue to lose money, they because unprofitable and unsustainable.

That is really subjective don't you think? I mean, the game you seem to like is a game that is tanking hard. Maybe your opinion isn't as great as you seem to think it is?

Actually the 80% drop and 20% while high are likely still in their range of expected and acceptable values. Of course a game that is box cost + cash shop will see a large drop in income after the Q4 holiday season following release every highly anticipated game sees that.

However they would not have invested the money in a China release or stated that gem sales are doing so well they have no current plans for a paid expansion if the decision makers on the top floor were no satisfied with the trend.