Up until recently, Chalamet consistently held a modest lead in this race. On Oct. 19, for example, 10 Experts picked him to win, 8 backed Ali. Chalamet seemed like the obvious fave because, well, for starters, a lot of people think he should’ve won Best Actor last year for his breakout performance in “Call Me By Your Name.” Now he’s got an even flashier part in “Beautiful Boy”: the kind of big, wigged-out, bug-eyed, high-kicking, grandstanding role that academy voters often adore. He plays a drug addict, sympathetically. Bingo.

By comparison, Ali’s role is quite subdued, reserved. No grandiose theatrics. So what’s going on here? Why is he suddenly pulling ahead of Chalamet by such a significant margin?