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Re: TIME LINE OF ISRAELI GROUND INCURSION

Released on 2013-02-21 00:00 GMT

Email-ID

5491135

Date

2009-01-04 17:48:04

From

goodrich@stratfor.com

To

analysts@stratfor.com

how detailed do we want to keep this? I can work on it some.

Matt Gertken wrote:

Here is a time line I put together of the Israeli ground incursion,
covering all of Jan. 3 and up to 0600 (JST) on Jan.4. I used OS reports.
Obviously some of the details and times could see some revisions.

I'm driving back to Austin today and won't be able to update this with
Jan. 4 events, so if someone else could take that up I'd be much
obliged.

TIME LINE OF GROUND INCURSION

*Times in JST and CST.

Jan. 2 - Israeli National Security Cabinet holds secret meeting and
decides to go ahead with ground invasion, after having approved of the
battle plan on Dec. 23. Cabinet also approves call for mobilization of
about 10,000 reserve troops made earlier in the week.

Jan. 3 - Hamas continues shooting missiles, and IAF continues bombing as
part of operation Cast Lead that began Dec. 27.

1:00 JST (17:00 CST) - Hamas claims to have fired six mortars repelling
an attack by IDF or "Israeli intelligence" forces in Shajaiyeh, eastern
Gaza City. IDF does not confirm.

Naval blockade established off Gaza coast, 30km long (20m).

Early morning Jan. 3 - IAF kills two Hamas leaders:

. Abu Zacharia Al-Jamal

. Muhammad Maaruf

Al-Jamal is said to be a commander for Hamas' missile squadrons, killed
while riding in vehicle in early hours of morning. Maaruf blasted later
in morning along with another Hamas member in a vehicle in the town of
Khan Younis.

16:00 JST (8:00 CST) - Israeli artillery opens fire for first time since
ops began, shelling east part of Gaza Strip, in "security zone" near the
Gaza Strip fence, and especially east of Gaza City. Artillery targets
Hamas explosives set on Gaza border crossing and Hamas missile launch
sites in:

. Jabaliya

. Khan Younis

. Beit Hanoun

. Gaza City - large explosion here

Prior to ground invasion, air raids, navy ships and artillery guns
strike more than 40 targets in Gaza, including the usual:

-Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah speaks in south Beirut, showing support
for Gaza resistance, alluding to its tank-busting capabilities.

22:55 JST (14:55 CST) -Abu Mujahid, of the An-Nasser Salah Ad-Din
Brigades, militant side of the Popular Resistance Committees,
Palestinian fighters blew up a small 50kg bomb near Hayeh Zaytoun. He
said that his group was coordinating actions with other Palestinian
militant groups Al-Aqsa Brigades, the PFLP, and Hamas against the
Israelis. Ma'an News reports, citing Al-Jazeera.

-UN Security Council press office announces that emergency meeting will
be held at 4:00 JST about Israeli actions in Gaza.

23:54 (15:54) - Jerusalem Post provides update, reports that Israel
invaded with its armored, engineering and infantry corps, specifically
targeting Hamas missile launch pads. Also Israel has established naval
blockade of Gaza, and that the military bombed a gas storage facility in
north Gaza (in Beit Lahiyah). The operations will continue based on
ongoing assessments by IDF.

-Jerusalem Post claims IDF is on high alert along border with Lebanon in
the north in case of Hezbollah rocket fire in response to ground
invasion of Gaza. The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security
Council, Saeed Jalili, while in Syria for meetings about the Gaza
situation, claimed that Iran and Hezbollah had agreed that Hezbollah
would launch missiles into Israel if the IDF ground forces moved into
Gaza.

1:30 JST (17:30 CST) - Jerusalem Post reports that Hamas has been
rounding up Fatah members since Israeli campaign began. Fatah said Hamas
Internal Security forces of Hamas' Interior Ministry in Gaza had shot at
least 75 Fatah members in the legs and executed 35 since Dec. 27.

-YnetNews gives large report. It claims that the IDF is operating in
Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun areas, and preparing for the "third phase"
of operation Cast Lead, to begin early Jan. 4, that will see "tens of
thousands" of Israeli reserve troops invading Hamas training bases in
north and south (Gaza presumably). Some reserves also to be deployed in
central and north Israel in case of hostilities there. A third of the
reserves will have new equipment since 2006 war in Lebanon. Only pockets
of resistance for Israeli troops so far. Intelligence services joined
infantry and engineering corps invading Gaza, with air and artillery
support.

3:42 JST (7:42 CST) - Jerusalem Post reports that 30 Hamas fighters have
been killed in ground incursion so far. Hamas fighters are well
entrenched just across Gaza border, giving stiff resistance to IDF
forces, which include not only armor and engineering corps, but also
Paratroopers, Givati and Golani Brigades. Four brigades total inside
Gaza. Report cited unnamed Israeli defense officials stating that the
IDF would not enter Gaza City or Palestinian refugee camps, and that it
would begin scaling back operations by Jan. 5. It also reckoned the
day's tally of missiles fired from Gaza at 40, striking Netivot, Ashdod,
Ashkelon, Yavne and Sderot.

4:00 JST Jan. 4 (20:00 CST)- Emergency UNSC meeting held

5:53 JST (21:53 CST) - ynetnews reports that one IDF officer and one
soldier were seriously wounded during initial ground invasion Jan. 3.
IDF Central Command Chief Yoav Galant orders the Gaza "closed military
zone" to be expanded to include all areas west of Sderot, Ofakim and
Netivot.