Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Tuesday, 22 June 2010

A couple of nice calls in my previous post with Switzerland a recommended lay at 2.3, now trading at 7.4, with Chile winning at 2.38. Now we get to the really interesting part of the World Cup, win or go home. OK, so some can afford to draw or even lose, but you get the idea.There are also occasional arbitrage opportunities if you put in the work. Multiple exchange accounts not always required either. For example, Group B had Nigeria to qualify available to lay at 4.6 yesterday, yet the true odds based on the Match Odds should have been more like 5.2. (Argentina to win their third game are 1.63, Nigeria to win theirs, 3.2). All on Betfair.With a draw a satisfactory result for both teams, it's not too surprising that Mexico v Uruguay is odds-on to be a draw, and 1.39 to be Under 2.5. 0-0 is 3.6.South Africa at 2.24 DNB look worth a bet to me also. Even though France are well ahead in the Elo ratings, they are in sulk mode, and South Africa will surely be looking to go out with a win.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.