Total business travel volume is expected to advance 1.0 percent in 2016,
while spending is projected to fall by 0.6 percent, according to the GBTA
BTI™ Outlook – United States 2016 Q3, a report released today by the
GBTA Foundation, the education and research arm of the Global Business
Travel Association (GBTA). In 2017, GBTA predicts spending will increase
3.8 percent reaching $293.1 billion, although that will largely be
driven by price inflation.

The report also cites three critical macro drivers of business travel
that continue to provide mixed signals.

Business confidence: In general, indicators of management confidence
remain weak, but narrowly positive suggesting a definitive lack of
enthusiasm for the near-term outlook.

Corporate Profits: After-tax profits fell for the fifth consecutive
quarter in 2016 Q2, and although they appear poised to return to the
plus side during the second half of 2016, expect the continuation of
tighter expense controls, lethargic capital spending and constrained
business travel growth for at least the rest of the year.

International Trade: Weakness among key U.S. trading partners combined
with a strong currency continues to plague export performance.

Indicators point to a better, but still-modest 2017 for the U.S. economy
with 2.4 percent GDP growth. American businesses are hiring, the labor
market is doing well, consumer confidence is rising, consumption
spending is robust and the housing sector is improving, yet capital
equipment, bricks and mortar and business travel spending remain low.
Rising uncertainty and weak labor productivity are to blame, resulting
in more caution and a wait-and-see attitude, particularly with decisions
that have longer-term implications.

“Businesses are hiring and paying better wages, but business travel
spending is stalled – something we rarely see happen,” said Michael W.
McCormick, GBTA Executive Director and COO. “The ongoing global
uncertainty and added heartburn from a presidential election unlike any
we have ever seen are causing many businesses to stay in a holding
pattern, taking an extremely cautious wait-and-see approach bordering on
paranoia. This begs the question of whether many of these companies will
be ready when growth does re-accelerate. To be prepared for lasting
business growth, companies must be ready with the newest technologies,
the most productive workforce and the critical customer relationships
necessary to take full advantage.”

GBTA Foundation Business Travel Forecast By The Numbers

Total U.S. business travel spending is projected to fall 0.6 percent
in 2016 to $282.3 billion with trip volume increasing 1.0 percent to
520.8 million trips.

Total U.S. business travel spending is projected to grow 3.8 percent
in 2017 to $293.1 billion with trip volume increasing 2.7 percent to
534.8 million trips.

Real travel spending growth per trip will fall by 3 percent in 2016
and 2.6 percent in 2017 as travel price inflation rises continuing to
outpace the growth in spend per business trip.

Group business travel volume will remain positive in 2016, growing 1.3
percent, before accelerating to 2.5 percent in 2017, while spending
will fall 2.3 percent this year before picking up 5.3 percent in 2017.

Individual business travel volume will grow by just 0.9 percent in
2016, followed by a more positive growth rate of 2.8 percent in 2017,
while spending is projected to grow 1.1 percent and 3.0 percent,
respectively, in 2016 and 2017.

International outbound business (IOB) travel continues to be a major
weak point for the U.S. business travel market with IOB volume
expected to grow by only 0.6 percent this year and another 0.6 percent
again in 2017. Spending will barely advance this year growing 0.1
percent in 2016 before gaining 1.7 percent in 2017.

More Information

The GBTA BTI™ Outlook – United States 2016 Q3 report is available
exclusively to GBTA members by clicking
here and non-members may purchase the report through the GBTA
Foundation by emailing pyachnes@gbtafoundation.org.
Download a free preview of the research here.

About the GBTA Foundation

The GBTA Foundation is the education and research foundation of the
Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), the world’s premier business
travel and meetings trade organization headquartered in the Washington,
D.C. area with operations on six continents. Collectively, GBTA’s
8,000-plus members manage more than $345 billion of global business
travel and meetings expenditures annually. GBTA provides its growing
network of more than 28,000 travel professionals and 125,000 active
contacts with world-class education, events, research, advocacy and
media. The Foundation was established in 1997 to support GBTA’s members
and the industry as a whole. As the leading education and research
foundation in the business travel industry, the GBTA Foundation seeks to
fund initiatives to advance the business travel profession. The GBTA
Foundation is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. For more information,
see gbta.org
and gbta.org/foundation.