What to Watch for in Wednesday's Private Space Showdown

Tomorrow, October 26, space industry leaders such as Elon Musk and leaders of NASA will be testifying before Congress about the future of the partnership between the agency and private space companies. Here's what you need to know going in.

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Some of the heaviest hitters in NASA and the spaceflight industry will be in Washington tomorrow. The House Committee on Science and Technology will convene to hear testimony on NASA's efforts to hand off the transportation of astronauts to the International Space Station and other orbital destinations to private spaceflight companies. NASA is in a time of enormous transformation, and the stakes are high. The nation now unable to launch humans into space without Russian help, and those testifying before Congress Wednesday are the ones who have been debating America's future in space behind closed doors. Tomorrow that debate will be open to the public—though the politicians who hold the purse strings are the real audience.

Will NASA Back Off Its Control of Space Hardware?

Popular Mechanics recently spoke to NASA officials and industry players about the agency's proposed approach to overseeing the private space industry's human-carrying spacecraft. We found points of serious disagreement with the overall approach and particulars in the contract. Industry officials, from companies both large and small, are uncomfortable with NASA's insistence on oversight, via review boards, of the design of the spacecraft. They also worried that the contract gives NASA control over the design, but leaves some ambiguity about how far NASA could reach into testing, and what kind of delays that could cause.

The fundamental difference of opinion seems to be that the space industry wants NASA to become more like the FAA: Companies would submit designs, and the agency approves those designs for safety. NASA wants to be, well, NASA, and have much more control over what flies. But it is not the only customer that will use these spacecraft—that is the whole point of the commercial space program—and its way of doing business has led to legendary cost overruns and delays.

With another tug-of-war going on over control of NASA's next generation of space vehicles, there could be signs tomorrow of which side is gaining ground. It will be interesting to see who in Congress is sympathetic to both sides.

What Will Elon Musk Say?

Private space does not revolve around Elon Musk, but his Space Exploration Corp. (SpaceX) is the darling of the industry thanks to his nontraditional approach to space launch engineering, bold claims of speed and cost savings, and his status as an über-wealthy entrepreneur. Sending NASA astronauts to the International Space Station and satellites into orbit are just the means to an end. (The stated goal of his company is to enable him to retire on Mars, after all). So his take on the NASA contract may be more caustic than that of traditional players like Boeing and ATK Space Launch Systems, simply because SpaceX also has more to lose by being bogged down in delays and red tape. For instance: SpaceX plans to fly crew in its Dragon spacecraft by April 2014, but NASA's new proposed contract sets a 2017 flight date. Can the company stick to its own more ambitious schedule and fulfill the terms of the contract?

Musk may not deliver any bombastic commentary to Congress. SpaceX has a contract to deliver cargo to ISS; his comments could be tempered by this ongoing relationship with NASA. But, he is the outlier among the private space industry and his comments will likely seize the headlines—much more so than a company like Sierra Nevada Space Systems, which has a more traditional relationship with NASA. (It dusted off an old space plane design and has worked with the agency for six years to develop the craft as the Dream Chaser.) Every company expressed some gripes about the contract, but SpaceX has been mum so far.

Will Members of Congress See a Space Program—or a Jobs Program?

You hear it all the time—the private space industry will create much-needed jobs for the United States. And with the current political climate, you can expect to hear the J word uttered a lot during hearings tomorrow and the word "efficiency" used very little.

To that end, the proposed NASA contract also includes a "Buy American" clause that demands private space companies building for NASA purchase parts from American suppliers unless it's impossible, and even if it's more expensive. This may push the right political buttons for politicians, but the space companies are worried that this meddles with an efficient and low-cost supply chain. And besides, buying American-made parts for Dragon or Dream Chaser seems like a small matter compared to the fact that right now American astronauts are flying aboard a Russian Soyuz spacecraft that has no U.S. parts, and the government will spend billions over the next several years renting these seats from Russia. (NASA had no say in developing the Soyuz, and it seems content to fly personnel in them.)

One thing that would be a good sign: If Congress shows interest in giving NASA an actual job to do with these new spacecraft. The new contract does not specify scheduled trips to the ISS, or anywhere else. So Congress could ease a lot of minds by flatly stating that it will pressure NASA to produce a plan to actually fly these things on actual missions, rather than just fund their development.