Historically though, as I recall the north pushes till it gets offered some incentive....usually in the form of food aid. Maybe the young-un thinks he can push harder than his dear old dad. Ultimately though (this year or some other) he'll push too far me thinks.

He's had the benefit of a western (european) education which one would think includes some history..... but he was young and impressionable then which dad probably pointed out when it came to re-orientating him for the local dynasty.

After sinking a war ship and shelling an island killing people a few years ago the level of threat is not that high really, I am sure Kim will know that he will be on the loosing end if he goes to war.

mckenndk: After sinking a war ship and shelling an island killing people a few years ago the level of threat is not that high really, I am sure Kim will know that he will be on the loosing end if he goes to war.

I disagree with both of those points.

While almost all that we see at the moment is threats and blustering the level of the threats and bluster is substantially higher than in the past. In terms of actual actions, the breaking off of most of the channels of communications between the two sides is also something not seen recently.

The entire North Korean army will now be aware that they are adopting a much more threatening posture than in the past. This increases the likelihood that an individual or small unit in the North Korean forces will start to take pot shots.

In the past, the US and South Koreans have adopted a policy of not responding to provocative acts in order to keep the peace. Considering that one of those provocative acts was the torpedoing of a South Korean ship in international waters and that almost fifty people were killed, that is a pretty high degree of restraint.

What is different this time is that the South Koreans have pledged that they will no longer restrain themselves. They are explicit that they will respond to any incident.

So, while we have not yet seen any shooting, it looks more likely than in earlier years and it looks almost certain to escalate.

For the second part, can the North Koreans really think that they have a chance against the US?

To answer that question, you need to try and see that world as the North Koreans do and not as we do. From the point of view of Kim and his generals, the US got its butt kicked in Iraq and Afghanistan - and Vietnam too. The North Korean military is much bigger and stronger than the Iraqi one and Afghanistan barely had an army at all. The North Koreans have nukes and the US were unable to use theirs in Iraq and Afghanistan so they are behind the North Koreans in that department. In fact, on North Korean analysis, the US has never actually won a war in it's entire history. WWI? The US was on the winning side but was no more than a bit part player. WWII? Again the US was on the winning side but it was the Russians that won it really. Conflicts before the 20th century? Too far in the past for the North Koreans to pay attention.

Now, I know that, to us, all of that is nonsense but it is easy to see that the North Koreans would believe it. If you think that they could not entertain such views, find a Russian and ask them who won WWII, find a Belgian and ask them the same question or find a supporter of Bin Laden and ask who was responsible for the end of communism and the Soviet Union.

mckenndk: After sinking a war ship and shelling an island killing people a few years ago the level of threat is not that high really, I am sure Kim will know that he will be on the loosing end if he goes to war.

I disagree with both of those points.

While almost all that we see at the moment is threats and blustering the level of the threats and bluster is substantially higher than in the past. In terms of actual actions, the breaking off of most of the channels of communications between the two sides is also something not seen recently.

The entire North Korean army will now be aware that they are adopting a much more threatening posture than in the past. This increases the likelihood that an individual or small unit in the North Korean forces will start to take pot shots.

In the past, the US and South Koreans have adopted a policy of not responding to provocative acts in order to keep the peace. Considering that one of those provocative acts was the torpedoing of a South Korean ship in international waters and that almost fifty people were killed, that is a pretty high degree of restraint.

What is different this time is that the South Koreans have pledged that they will no longer restrain themselves. They are explicit that they will respond to any incident.

So, while we have not yet seen any shooting, it looks more likely than in earlier years and it looks almost certain to escalate.

For the second part, can the North Koreans really think that they have a chance against the US?

To answer that question, you need to try and see that world as the North Koreans do and not as we do. From the point of view of Kim and his generals, the US got its butt kicked in Iraq and Afghanistan - and Vietnam too. The North Korean military is much bigger and stronger than the Iraqi one and Afghanistan barely had an army at all. The North Koreans have nukes and the US were unable to use theirs in Iraq and Afghanistan so they are behind the North Koreans in that department. In fact, on North Korean analysis, the US has never actually won a war in it's entire history. WWI? The US was on the winning side but was no more than a bit part player. WWII? Again the US was on the winning side but it was the Russians that won it really. Conflicts before the 20th century? Too far in the past for the North Koreans to pay attention.

Now, I know that, to us, all of that is nonsense but it is easy to see that the North Koreans would believe it. If you think that they could not entertain such views, find a Russian and ask them who won WWII, find a Belgian and ask them the same question or find a supporter of Bin Laden and ask who was responsible for the end of communism and the Soviet Union.

I don't agree about WWII. The Russians didn't participate in the pacific and in Europe it would only have been a matter of time.

While almost all that we see at the moment is threats and blustering the level of the threats and bluster is substantially higher than in the past. In terms of actual actions, the breaking off of most of the channels of communications between the two sides is also something not seen recently.

They are for sure talking the talk, and I don't rule out the possibility that things will get out of control (obligatory Hunt for Red October screenshot here) but still... They haven't done anything in the last couple of weeks that they haven't done before, many times.

The South Korean government might be talking tough about not restraining themselves, but they have far more to lose than North Korea if another war breaks out. Along the same lines, there is a joint industrial complex on the NK side which is by all accounts where NK makes most of its hard currency. They have not shut this down. If they were about to start a war, you would think that they would.

The talk about missile attacks is entirely theoretical. Their success rate at getting big rockets to fly is currently one in three; nowhere near high enough you'd risk putting one of your very few bombs on the end, even if they were small enough to fit. And it's one thing to have a rocket that can fly 1,000 miles, but quite another to have a rocket that can fly 1,000 miles and land on a dot 100m wide. Even the experts at that game took decades to get it right. (Yes, you *do* still need to be accurate, even with a nuke on the end).

If there is going to be a war it will be because someone further down the chain does something dumb, and it all escalates from there. Not because Kim Jong Un orders the end of the world. But given the stakes, I expect the US/Sth Koreans to be *very* careful not to let that happen.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.