Politics Brexit

Hey guys...after living in the UK for nearly 4 years I've honed in on politics there and like to keep up. The Brexit debate is still raging on....anyone else following this? Pound has been in freefall for a while.

This Washington Post story caught my attention this morning; particularly this quote...

“He’s totally unrealistic. He’s saying if you don’t do what I say, I’ll commit suicide. There are no negotiations with this government.”
~ Dutch lawmaker Anne Mulder on British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approach to Brexit.​

My knowledge of Brexit is only in passing and a view from afar.

From my perspective, Brexit had always been doomed to fail. It is essentially a "nationalist" movement driven by an emotional appeal rather than sound economic principles. History would suggest that economic protectionism always fails, even more so in today' global economy than in the past.

The UK seemed to have a pretty sweet deal in the EU, keeping its own currency rather than being forced to adopt the Euro, having some level of autonomy on the issue of migrant workers, etc.

Ultimately, Brexit drove Theresa May out of office as a result of her failure to leave the EU with a deal that would have benefited the UK economically.

And now there is Boris Johnson, a Trump wannabe hardliner who will only further divide the country with his determination to leave the EU with no deal.

IMO, a "no deal" Brexit would be a disaster for the Brits economically and apparently some conservative MPs think so as well, handing Boris two stinging defeats last week. His response was to essentially expel them from the party.

If the UK were to hold another referendum, I think Brexit would lose by a relatively wide margin, but that is not likely

The hard Brexit deadline is approaching and I can't begin to predict the outcome.

It seems clear that the EU will not give the UK a sweetheart deal to leave, knowing that such a deal would likely cause further defections but Boris is committed to pulling out even with no deal.

So what's next? Another forced parliamentary election? A plea to the EU for another extension, longer this time, and kick it down the road for a year or two?

My issue with the EU, and where I agree with many conservative critics, is it's expanding power grab at the expense of the national sovereignty of member countries.

The original vision of the European Common Market or European Economic Community made sense in creating an economic model for more efficient and cost-effective trade within Europe and enhancing European competitiveness in international markets. It was also advantageous to the US in facilitating trade with multiple European countries under one set of trade regulations. A central currency made sense and even a central bank responsible for monetary policy made sense.

But as happens so often, power begets more power and suddenly there is a European Parliament with expanded powers far beyond economic and trade issues and now touching and regulating areas of domestic policies that, IMO, are issues best left to individual countries and doing do in a manner that creates an opportunity for "nationalist" opponents to point to the EU as the boogeyman usurping national sovereignty.

I have sympathy for Boris to a degree. Having lived in the country when the Brexit debate came up and then the referendum was called (Thanks Cameron...) and then suddenly the result came about that no one expected and the ensuing division that followed and has taken grasp is pretty surreal.

I think he wants to get it done and move forward. I also think the conservatives were tired of people not having discipline within the party as well. Should be quite an interesting few weeks to see how it all goes. Albeit there could be some 'fun' in the EU Commission if nothing else.

We are leavers though...I do not believe in the EU for a wide variety of reasons, primary being the unelected nature of the primary counsel. We will see if further implosion continues to occur within the party.

I also think JC has his own kettle of issues surrounding an election if it were to come to it...primarily the SNP and LD. Again, fascinating to watch and read other comments on.

The ex-work and pensions secretary said the government was having no "formal negotiations" with the EU about a new deal, only "conversations". Instead, 80-90% of Brexit work was spent preparing for an "inferior" no-deal option, she said...

...In her resignation letter to the prime minister, Ms Rudd said: "I joined your cabinet in good faith: accepting that 'No Deal' had to be on the table, because it was the means by which we would have the best chance of achieving a new deal to leave on 31 October.

"However I no longer believe leaving with a deal is the government's main objective."

She called the PM's decision to expel 21 MPs from the parliamentary Conservative party an "act of political vandalism", after her former colleagues rebelled last week over a bill designed to avoid a no-deal Brexit...​

The EU will refuse another delay to Brexit in the current circumstances, according to France's Foreign Minister. Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Sunday that as things stand, a delay beyond the October 31 deadline would not be granted.

Asked if a Brexit delay was possible, the French minister told Europe 1 radio not under the current conditions....
​

I also think JC has his own kettle of issues surrounding an election if it were to come to it...primarily the SNP and LD

...Not only did Scotland vote overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, it was the only one of the U.K.’s four parts where not a single constituency delivered a “Yes” vote to leave.

Simply put: Scotland is being dragged largely unwillingly toward what many of its people fear will be economic suffering on Oct. 31, when the messy divorce is scheduled to take effect,

Rather than be shackled to what they suspect could become a diminished and isolated U.K., advocates of Scottish independence are clamoring for another referendum to allow it to strike out on its own and perhaps even rejoin the EU...​

By October's end, I dont see anyone "winning" and only more economic (and political) uncertainly ahead for the UK regardless of the outcome.

A no-deal Brexit could result in rising food and fuel prices, disruption to medicine supplies and public disorder on Britain’s streets, according to secret documents the government was forced by MPs to publish on Wednesday.

At the time, Downing Street claimed the document had been superseded, and government sources suggested it had been leaked by disaffected former ministers. Former chancellor Philip Hammond later demanded an apology from Johnson, when it emerged the date on the document was August, after the PM took power.

The document, which says it outlines “reasonable worst case planning assumptions” for no deal Brexit, highlights the risk of border delays, given an estimate that up to 85% of lorries crossing the Channel might not be ready for a new French customs regime.

“The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold ‘unready’ HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40%-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow,” it warns.

This situation could last for up to three months, and disruption might last “significantly longer”, it adds, with lorries facing waits of between 1.5 days and 2.5 days to cross the border.

The reliance of medical supplies on cross-Channel routes “make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays”, the report says, with some medicines having such short shelf lives they cannot be stockpiled. A lack of veterinary medicines could increase the risk of disease outbreaks, it adds.

On food supplies, supplies of “certain types of fresh food” would be reduced, the document warns, as well as other items such as packaging.

It says: “In combination, these two factors will not cause an overall shortage of food in the UK but will reduce availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups.”

Later, it adds: “Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.”

On law and order it warns: “Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions.”

The documents also outline a potential impact on cross-border financial services and law enforcement information sharing....

Frankly, there's no point in speculating on the probability of Brexit from the outside.

Boris could be a legitimate bumbling idiot going through an unprecedentedly long series of political failures within a tiny amount of time, or could just as likely be putting on an exaggerated spectacle (along with frequent leaks of damaging information) to make hard Brexit so likely and unpalatable to the public that they'd be willing to revolt en masse to stop it from happening (and if this is the case the entire European public is very much playing into his hands right now). Thinking back to Boris being an original Remainer, Oxford graduate, and clearly not a stupid fellow - I'm highly skeptical of current events, but also have to acknowledge that I just don't have enough non-speculative information to go off on.

If anyone here was part of the internal power brokers or the real political machine, we could come close to an educated guess - but that simply is not the case, as such I've been keeping away from any speculations on this topic. The chips will fall where they may and we'll all hear the final outcome at the same time.