Hang on everyone, we are finally, FINALLY in the final week of spring training. It is a good feeling to know that next Monday I will have actual regular season games to write about! I am pretty sure that there is not a Royals’ fan out there who isn’t tired of debating roster moves, nicknames, and what spring training really means, so let’s have a little fun today and throw out some over/unders for the coming season.

Eric Hosmer Home Runs

Anyone not think Hosmer is the real deal? We have all fallen prey to overestimating the potential of more than one prospect over the years, but I am not sure any one player has seemed so destined for stardom in a Royals’ uniform since we saw Carlos Beltran come up. There has been a lot of talk about Hosmer threatening Steve Balboni’s club record of 36 homers and I think that one year either Hosmer or Mike Moustakas probably will bust through that long standing number. However, I don’t think 2012 is going to be the year.

The over/under on Hosmer homers is 29.

Alex Gordon’s OPS+

I know some of you are not all that keen on sabermetrics, but it is a tidy way to quantify a player’s offensive contributions relative to the rest of the league. Last year, Gordon posted a rather impressive OPS+ of 140. For reference, his OPS+ from his rookie season forward were: 90, 109, 87 and 84.

Was 2011 a freak occurrence or the long awaited realization of Gordon’s potential? I think the latter, but I also know that Gordon had a little bit of good fortune when it came to the beloved BABIP. He might regress, but not a lot (at least I sure hope it is not a lot!).

The over/under for Gordon’s 2012 OPS+ is 129.

Luke Hochevar’s Innings Pitched

A couple of things come into play here. The first is that 2011 was basically the first year Luke managed to go through the entire season without an injury. The second is that unless you are the late Jose Lima, it is hard to pile up a lot of innings if you are not effective. In my mind, the number of innings Hochevar throws will be a direct correlation to his effectiveness.

Last season, Luke threw 198 innings, using a strong second half to get his ERA to a marginally tolerable 4.68 by season’s end. The Royals expect and quite frankly really, really, really need Hochevar to build on the success he enjoyed after the All-Star Break in 2011. I’m cautiously optimistic.

The over/under on Hochevar’s innings pitched is 208.

Greg Holland’s Saves

Ned Yost has yet to commit to a full-time closer to replace the injured Joakim Soria and looks to be headed towards an early season combination of Holland and Jonathan Broxton. I don’t mind that, but I think we may see Holland simply take the role over by sheer overpowering effectiveness sooner rather than later. You have to give Dayton Moore credit on this one: he drafted Holland in the 10th round with the idea that Greg would get to the majors quickly and be a possible closer. You have to love it when a plan comes together.

The over/under on Mr. Holland’s saves is 31.

Billy Butler’s Extra Base Hits

I don’t agonize over Butler’s home run total like many do and I quite possibly could be wrong to not do so. I do, however, monitor Billy’s overall extra base hit total. Last season, Billy hit 63, the year before 60 and in 2009 he smacked 73 extra base hits. The Royals could certainly use a big number in this category as Billy should see Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer on base when he comes to the plate with great regularity. My hunch says that Billy amps it up this year.

The over/under is 71.

The Royals Starting Pitchers

Last season, Kansas City had 11 different pitchers start a game. Let’s eliminate the September call-up situation to get to the crux of the issue. How many pitchers will start a game prior to September 1st this year and, quite frankly, is it good or bad to have a higher number?

There will certainly be an injury or two along the way, so you know Felipe Paulino gets some turns which puts you at six out of the gate. Do we see Mike Montgomery? Does Everett Teaford get a start or two or ten?

The over/under is 8.

Alicdes Escobar’s on base percentage

With Salvador Perez out until June or so and not a single second baseman in the organization can seem to, you know, hit the ball, the Royals really need Escobar to improve his offensive game to keep the bottom of the order from becoming the ‘now’s a good time to go to the bathroom and get some nachos’ part of the game. Escobar is never going to be Troy Tulowitzki at the plate, but he has to do a little more than get on base at a .290 clip. We saw some signs of improvement over the latter half of the season, although much of that was due to one magical hot streak.

If Escobar focuses at the plate like he does in the field, stays within himself and goes with the pitch, he could emerge as at least a ‘hold your own’ type of guy at the plate. The Royals really need him to do so.

The on-base percentage over/under for Escobar is .322.

Salvador Perez

Could the Royals have taken an injury hit in a worse area? With Perez out with knee surgery, Kansas City will struggle at the catching position. Imagine the boost if the Royals can hang around .500 into the summer and then have Perez return healthy to the lineup.

Nothing is better than being young and in shape, so I am hoping for a quicker than expected return out of Perez.

The over/under on the number of games Salvador Perez will catch in 2012 is 81.

And Finally, The Only Number That Matters

How many games will Kansas City win in 2012? A lot of projections this spring put that number anywhere in the seventies. We are all certainly hoping for better, but is that logical? This is a young team with sketchy starting pitching and one that has already suffered two big injuries. Almost everyone seems to think the Royals will hit, but truthfully Billy Butler is the only offensive player who is truly proven over time. We all think the bullpen is lockdown solid, but relievers are just plain unpredictable.

Craig was optimistic on Friday and it has rubbed off on me.

The over/under on 2012 Kansas City wins is set at 82.

xxx

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Comments

Written by Chris about 3 years ago.

I like the win total over/under. My personal expectations are for the Royals to get to .500 this year. I don’t think we have the starting pitching to seriously contend this year, but I do think its realistic for the Royals to win in the low to mid 80’s. I will be disappointed if the Royals don’t make it to 81 wins this year.

I would LOVE to have 82 wins, and it is a decent possiblility. IF everything falls correctly we could push detroit in the division but I dont see us winning it unless the tigers completely fall apart. We wont know until the games are played !! GO ROYALS

Written by Greg about 3 years ago.

Under
Under
Under
Under
Under
Over
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Over
Under

I know that seems a bit pessimistic, but I feel like a lot of these will be really close and the numbers selected were pretty optimistic. It still seems to me like 83-84 wins is a ceiling even if a lot breaks right.

Written by Adam about 3 years ago.

I see the Royals wining 88-94 games this year. Call me crazy, just weight and see. Last year we where 3rd in BA. This year we might just pull off 2nd in BA and with the best bullpin in the AL things are looking good. Its sad but really it all comes down to our starting piching.

Maybe I’m a pessimist, but for most of those guys to reach their numbers it would require a career year unlike one we’ve seen before (except Butler). Gordon seems to be the only player who people covering this team are willing to concede might have room for regression. Maybe set the bar of expectations at past performance instead of hopeful ceiling.

Written by Kyle about 3 years ago.

My fantasy baseball team sure would like to see Hosmer with 30+ hrs and Holland with 30+ saves. So I’ll go over on those!

Written by Zack Daddy about 3 years ago.

It’s not unrealistic that KC could have a Hosmer type player every yr or so–Moose, Myers, Cuthbert, Hernandez, etc. Now, if only the pitching begins to blossom the same way.

“Could the Royals have taken an injury hit in a worse area?”
I would say 3B/Moose could have been worse since we really don’t have a replacement guy there. What made Perez’s injury argubly worse is Manny Pina being injured as well.

I’m putting the Royals’ win total at 85 – slightly better than .500. My thinking is that many losses last year were related to pitchers no longer on the team and Soria’s ineffectiveness early on. By the time July rolled around, the team started to come together. So a full year of the confidence will result in a bigger jump in wins than most people would predict for one year to the next.

Okay I moved to KC in 2002 and wanted to become a fan but it seems losing is destiny. My daughter age 8 when me moved and went to 2 birthday games two years in a row gave up when she turned 10. She said “Dad the Royals are losers and I dont want to go to anymore games. So we look at 2012 & the Royals will be losers again – does any starter strike fear in hitters? No, 2nd base -Catcher & SS almost 3 outs automatically – so now you have 7 guys who can hit. Do you really believe this team can get to .500?
No starting pitcher with a below 4 era – look at the winning teams see pitcher era’s -A decade of losing continues and the loss of more young fans grows. Sad

Written by Zach about 3 years ago.

Under, Over, Over, Under, Over, Over, Under, Under, Over

Written by kcghost about 3 years ago.

For once 82 wins is not a pie-in-the-sky dream.

Written by Bryan about 3 years ago.

Here’s the thing. This is the first time in over a decade where the “rebuilding process” is actually moving somewhere. I can’t think of much positive over the past decade. I think the calls here are pretty decent. I think Butler’s production is going to increase, assuming Gordan maintains his form and Hosmer is..well Hosmer they are going to have to pitch to someone. This may not be Detroits Maggy/Fielder punch but I like it nonetheless.

I see SS JESUS (loved positivity friday) posting somewhere along the lines of .300 on base %. JESUS showed improvements in his swing in 2011 and if anyone can turn him around I think it’s our coaching staff.

Here’s to hoping Sanchez delivers for us, we could be a fun team to watch. No playoff contention unless we see some pretty big injuries in our division. (Maggy going down…etc)

I know I missed happy friday and all, but I’ve got to say, as much as I know I’m probably setting myself up for disappointment, it might be fulfilling to be a Royals fan this year. Finally our farm system isn’t being shipped elsewhere…hopefully I didn’t talk too soon.

The Reds gave $200M over 10 years to Joey Votto. If we think Hosmer is better than Votto (as I do), then the Royals will never have a chance at signing Hosmer past his controlled years. With salary inflation, five years from now, Hosmer might be looking at $25M per year.

The only question becomes if the Royals trade him like Grienke/Beltran/etc or keep him for the extra draft pick. The only good news is that the coming of Cheslor in a few years might be resolved by moving either Moose or Cheslor to first base (assuming they pass over Clint Robinson and his four years of AAA domination ).

Written by Ted about 3 years ago.

Clint Robinson will be nearly 35 before KC needs to think about replacing Hosmer.

I’m very high on our offense [*Correct*] and very low on our defense [*Incorrect*](original position I know). That K/9 total is me being optimistic about our bullpen [*Correct*], because I don’t think we have any starters who will even sniff 140 Ks [Hochevar topped the list at 128, Paulino would have gotten there given a full season, but I’ll take my victory].”