A Trump Doctrine for Singapore and Beyond?

After Pyongyang railed this week that the U.S.-South Korean Max Thunder military drills were a rehearsal for an invasion of the North, and imperiled the Singapore summit, the Pentagon dialed them back.

The B-52 exercises alongside F-22 stealth fighters were canceled.

But Pyongyang had other objections.

Sunday, NSC adviser John Bolton spoke of a “Libyan model” for the North’s disarmament, referring to Moammar Gadhafi’s surrender of all his weapons of mass destruction in 2004. The U.S. was invited into Libya to pick them up and cart them off, whereupon sanctions were lifted.

As Libya was subsequently attacked by NATO and Gadhafi lynched, North Korea denounced Bolton and all this talk of the “Libyan model” of unilateral disarmament.

North Korea wants a step-by-step approach, each concession by Pyongyang to be met by a U.S. concession. And Bolton sitting beside Trump, and across the table from Kim Jong Un in Shanghai, may be inhibiting.

What was predictable and predicted has come to pass.

If we expected Kim to commit at Singapore to Bolton’s demand for “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization,” and a swift follow-through, we were deluding ourselves.

At Singapore, both sides will have demands, and both will have to offer concessions, if there is to be a deal.

What does Kim Jong Un want?

An end to U.S. and South Korean military exercises and sanctions on the North, trade and investment, U.S. recognition of his regime, a peace treaty, and the eventual removal of U.S. bases and troops.

He is likely to offer an end to the testing of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, no transfer of nuclear weapons or strategic missiles to third powers, a drawdown of troops on the DMZ, and the opening of North Korea’s borders to trade and travel.

As for his nuclear weapons and the facilities to produce them, these are Kim’s crown jewels. These brought him to the attention of the world and the Americans to the table. These are why President Trump is flying 10,000 miles to meet and talk with him.

And, unlike Gadhafi, Kim is not going to give them up.

Assuming the summit comes off June 12, this is the reality Trump will face in Singapore: a North Korea willing to halt the testing of nukes and ICBMs and to engage diplomatically and economically.

As for having Americans come into his country, pick up his nuclear weapons, remove them and begin intrusive inspections to ensure he has neither nuclear bombs nor the means to produce, deliver or hide them, that would be tantamount to a surrender by Kim.

Trump is not going to get that. And if he adopts a Bolton policy of “all or nothing,” he is likely to get nothing at all.

Yet, thanks to Trump’s threats and refusal to accept a “frozen conflict” on the Korean peninsula, the makings of a real deal are present, if Trump does not make the perfect the enemy of the good.

For there is nothing North Korea is likely to demand that cannot be granted, as long as the security of South Korea is assured to the degree that it can be assured, while living alongside a nuclear-armed North.

Hence, when Kim cavils or balks in Singapore, as he almost surely will, at any demand for a pre-emptive surrender of his nuclear arsenal, Trump should have a fallback position.

If we cannot have everything we want, what can we live with?

Moreover, while we are running a risk today, an intransigent North Korea that walks out would be running a risk as well.

A collapse in talks between Kim and the United States and Kim and South Korea would raise the possibility that he and his Chinese patrons could face an East Asia Cold War where South Korea and Japan also have acquired nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.

In the last analysis, the United States should be willing to accept both the concessions to the North that the South is willing to make and the risks from the North that the South is willing to take.

For, ultimately, they are the ones who are going to have to live on the same peninsula with Kim and his nukes.

Trump ran on a foreign policy that may fairly be described as a Trump Doctrine: In the post-post-Cold War era, the United States will start looking out for America first.

This does not mean isolationism or the abandonment of our allies. It does mean a review and reassessment of all the guarantees we have issued to go to war on behalf of other countries, and the eventual transfer of responsibility for the defense of our friends over to our friends.

In the future, the U.S. will stop futilely imploring allies to do more for their own defense and will begin telling them that their defense is primarily their own responsibility. Our allies must cease to be our dependents.

Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of the recent book, Nixon’s White House Wars: The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever.

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7 Responses to A Trump Doctrine for Singapore and Beyond?

when Kim cavils or balks in Singapore, […] Trump should have a fallback position.

Pat, in the 5 decades that Trump has been in view of the public, please cite one single instance in which he has ever had a “fallback position” other than pounding the table and stamping his feet like a two-year-old having a tantrum, then walking out crying that he never really wanted that deal, anyway.

In a conference between Trump and Kim, if it ever really comes off, only one of the two principals will be someone who has actually read “The Art of the Deal”. Hint: It ain’t the guy whose name is on the cover.

“At Singapore, both sides will have demands, and both will have to offer concessions, if there is to be a deal.”

No, Mr. Buchanan, that doesn’t happen at Singapore, but EVERYWHERE/EVERYTIME a deal is meant to be achieved. With all due apologizes, beacuse my tone wasn’t respecteful.

“After Pyongyang railed this week that the U.S.-South Korean Max Thunder military drills were a rehearsal for an invasion of the North, and imperiled the Singapore summit, the Pentagon dialed them back.

The B-52 exercises alongside F-22 stealth fighters were canceled.”

Again, sorry in advance for this tone, but, isn’t EVERY military exercise a rehearsal for war? Don’t say that Kim Jon-un doesn’t have a point here. Really, guys, who in his proper mind starts negotiations for peace and, after achieving initial success, performs military exercises near to the frontier of the country you want to make a peace deal with him?

“And, unlike Gadhafi, Kim is not going to give them up.”

Gadhafi is the whole thing here; if he were still alive, Kim could leave his nuclear weapons. Now it is impossible: they are a deterrence.

This is why Trump had to dump the Iran Treaty – if he makes advances with North Korea, who is going to be the Great Evil? Trump-Bolton-Halley-Netanyahu want Iran to be the Great Evil while shouting how Trump ended a war that has [technically] been going on since 1948.

The glitch is that both Libya and the Iran treaty will convince Kim that the US cannot be trusted to be an honest partner.

An end to U.S. and South Korean military exercises and sanctions on the North, trade and investment, U.S. recognition of his regime, a peace treaty, and the eventual removal of U.S. bases and troops.”

That’s almost giving the Koreans everything the Koreans want without getting anything in return, according to John Robert Bolton.

John Robert Bolton felt in 2003 that, it would cost only 50 billion U.S. dollars to liberate all Iraqis and democratize Iraq against the Islamic theocracy of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

It turned out that, American invasion and occupation of Iraq actually cost 5 trillion U.S. dollars for the military invasion and subsequent military occupation of Iraq and there’s no complete end of the bloody carnage to this day in Iraq after 15 years.

John Robert Bolton thinks, it will cost American tax-payers no more than another few hundred billions to change Iranian Islamic régime after imposing harsh economic sanctions this month!

Looks like the current American president is surrounded by all Bush-era advisors to give the right advice at the right moment.

So, if — may God forbid — President D.J. Trump is re-elected in 2020, there will be American “Operation Régime Change” in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

What is the LOGIC in sending billions of dollars to the bellicose Israeli?
* They are racists towards the Palestinians, including Palestinian Christians.
•They are on a land grab of Palestinian lands.
• They are an international pariah. How does our favoritism to them help our standing?
• They have the sixth largest military in the world.
• They have nuclear capability and the means to deliver nuclear bombs.

America First also means our demonstrating American values. Our support of Israel is hypocritical.