Andersson, Viktor

Abstract [en]

The purpose of this report is to investigate if topology can be used to simulate solar storms. This is performed by constructing and testing two topological models, the stretch-twist-fold model and the torus model based on the smile attractor. The assumption is made that a solar storm is a reduction in complexity, represented by a simpler set of model parameters. The stretch-twist-fold model was discarded after poor simulation results while the torus model was converted into magnetograms and compared to current magnetograms of solar active regions as measured by SDO. The torus model was also used to simulate the 1921 Karlstad super solar storm and the simulation results indicate that the active region produced two special parameter changes. The first one, a separation of interconnected torus's, caused a major solar flare on the 12 May 1921 and the second one, a change in the active area orientation, caused a series of fast CME on the 14 May that burnt down a telegraph station in Karlstad on the following day. A side effect of the simulation is that the temporal resolution of the active region is increased. The conclusion is that topology can be used to simulate solar active regions and solar storms. The torus model performed well when it came to describing the general evolution of the active region, but had issues regarding the weaker parts and the details. The fractured nature of the active region can likely be better described by using a higher number of iterations of the smile attractor. To simplify the modeling of the 1921 Karlstad super solar storm, the hand drawn magnetograms from the Mount Wilson Observatory were converted into color scale, the same color scale as used in the torus model simulations. This method is recommended to be used for studies of other older magnetograms. The torus model offer many opportunities for future work, in the short term by allowing for a more general parameter set to be used and to perform more simulations on recent active regions. The relative color scale also has to be made absolute. In the medium term the interpretation of the model needs to be altered to simulate the three dimensional vector magnetic field, possibly by using the parts of a torus in between two cutouts. It is also possible that further moderations should be performed on the smile attractor formula. In the longer term the goal is to use a topological model, together with a neural network, to automatically detect, simulate and predict super solar storms.