Key point: Out of 1.3 billion total population, 500 million live in the 666 cities. Within the next 10 years, additional 150-200 million will enter the cities. So total city population should be 600-650 million now.

This shows where the GDP growth goes to. A huge bubble is in place already.

PS: in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, a regular flat costs 20 years of salary of an average person.

thanks richard - i got a translation from babelfish that says they found this out by comparing the number of people not receiving power to these homes... (65 million I think it was)

The rest of it is not so clear - a suggestion that the supply of these homes is being withheld to the Market by these speculators.... and also, a suggestion that the taxes on these homes will have to start being paid, and that will drive the speculators to unwind these homes to the public..

Since the announcement of real estate taxes, shanghai market has been flat to slightly down, volume dried up, yet prices stubbornly refuse to drop. The problem is none of the owners are desperate like the americans, they have no debt and all willing to hold the property indefinitely, so very few is willing to lower the price. Buyers fearful of the possible tax, have stopped the buying frenzy/bidding war. So you end up with a frozen market, where both sides are unwilling to move.

it's been like that for months now, and very frustrating. Noone has a clue where it's going, especially for someone like me who is holding all cash waiting for the crash. Might have to reenter soon, as the lower end market seem to start going up again after a breather. I wish the govt would stop fuck around and just implement the tax already....

A bit of advice from someone who lived in Miami before, during and after the bubble

this is the FIRST STEP before the bubble pops

the waiting perioid when sellers refuse to give discounts cause they remember their neighbor sold their apartment for 500k and they have it offered for 500k, but the nearest bid is 425

That same apartment 2 years later prob sold for 300k

the first step is the struggle...eventually a couple people throw in the towel, or stop paying mortgages (which i readily admit ..i do not know anythign about the mortgage situation in China) or the maintainance goes up, or they lose their job due to economy, or taxes go up, etc and they just lose it or hit a bid

that starts the dominoe effect of all thoe OTHERS looking to sell who don't even have their place listed till they see what others are getting...

Key point: Out of 1.3 billion total population, 500 million live in the 666 cities. Within the next 10 years, additional 150-200 million will enter the cities. So total city population should be 600-650 million now.

This shows where the GDP growth goes to. A huge bubble is in place already.

PS: in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, a regular flat costs 20 years of salary of an average person.

1) you cannot seriously trying to compare a leisure tourism bubble area to shanghai - the financial capital and one of the largest most populated city in china and asia, with millions migrating to the area every year.

2) there is no upkeep cost in china real estate, a $1M condo in US cost around $2-3k a month in tax + maintenance fees, in china the same $1M condo cost <$100 (yes 100 dollar) a month in maintenance fee, there is no property tax (yet)

3) to have a miami style crash, you need massive default and no demand. That will never be the case in china, mortgage/debt in china is extremely sound - min is 30% down, most just buy the place outright with gift from the parents/grandparents savings - the joy of 1 child policy (for the kid anyway).

4) demand is still tremendous, everyone wants to own a property in shanghai, even the guys making $200 a month dreams of owning a shack in his lifetime. Also home ownership is close to a mandatory requirement now over there to get a girl and marriage. Otherwise it will be very difficult finding a wife....

The whole situation is very different over there, the price drop will mostly focused on the luxury highend units above the $1m range, as if the tax goes through it will add quite a bit of overhead to upkeep. It's very likely the buyer will end up pussy out and meet the seller's price not the other way around, right now as i said both parties are waiting for the govt to finalize the tax policy (which they are still dragging their fucking feet).

Quote from Drock409:

A bit of advice from someone who lived in Miami before, during and after the bubble

this is the FIRST STEP before the bubble pops

the waiting perioid when sellers refuse to give discounts cause they remember their neighbor sold their apartment for 500k and they have it offered for 500k, but the nearest bid is 425

That same apartment 2 years later prob sold for 300k

the first step is the struggle...eventually a couple people throw in the towel, or stop paying mortgages (which i readily admit ..i do not know anythign about the mortgage situation in China) or the maintainance goes up, or they lose their job due to economy, or taxes go up, etc and they just lose it or hit a bid

that starts the dominoe effect of all thoe OTHERS looking to sell who don't even have their place listed till they see what others are getting...