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Soybeans and corn closed higher Friday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered its forecast for production in a report yesterday. Wheat also jumped.

Bean output in the 2018-2019 marketing year that started on September 1 was pegged by the USDA at 4.69 million bushels in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. That’s down from 4.693 billion bushels forecast last month and well below expectations.

Yield is seen lower at 88.3 bushels an acre, down from the month-earlier projection of 88.9 bushels, the USDA said. The government’s ending stockpiles estimate was raised to 885 million bushels from 845 million, but that’s still below analyst estimates.

Corn production forecasts were also lowered by the USDA to 14.778 billion bushels from 14.827 billion a month ago. Yield is now seen at 180.7 bushels an acre, down from 181.3 bushels. The agency’s inventories estimate was raised to 1.813 billion bushels from 1.774 billion a month earlier, but that’s also still below expectations.

Soybeans for November delivery rose 7¼¢ to $8.65½ a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures fell 60¢ to $316.20 a short ton, and soy oil added 0.34¢ to 29.36¢ a pound.

Corn for December delivery gained 3¾¢ to $3.73 a bushel.

Wheat futures surged on Friday, partly because the USDA lowered its outlook for global crops. World production is now pegged at 730.9 million metric tons, down from the September outlook for 733 million. While U.S. output was forecast higher, Australian-crop estimates were lowered by 1.5 million tons to 18.5 million and Russia's fell by a million tons to 70 million.

Global ending stocks were pegged at 260.2 million tons, down from 261.3 million a month earlier.

Wheat for December delivery rose 8¼¢ to $5.16¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures gained 8¼¢ to $5.16¼ a bushel.

Thursday’s Market Report

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday unexpectedly lowered its forecast for corn and soybean production in the 2018-2019 marketing year that started on September 1.

Corn output is now pegged at 14.778 billion bushels this year, down from 14.827 billion forecast a month ago. Yield projections also were lower at 180.7 bushels an acre, down from 181.3 bushels seen in September.

Analysts had expected an increase in production from14.851 billion to 14.859 billion bushels. Yield projections ranged from 181.3 to 181.8 bushels an acre. Harvested acres were left unchanged at 181.8 bushels an acre, the USDA said, as expected.

Stockpiles at the end of the marketing year on August 31 are now seen at 1.813 billion bushels, up from last month’s outlook for 1.774 billion, but still well below forecasts for 1.913 billion to 1.919 billion bushels.

Brian Grossman, a marketing strategist with Zaner Ag Hedge in Chicago, told agriculture.com that the decline in yield indicates ear counts are down, likely due to the extremely wet weather the past month.

“I’m not surprised they lowered the yield given the maturity of the crop,” he said. “I thought they’d follow through with their historical pattern and increase (production and yield), but the maturity was the wild card, and that’s what came back and bit us.”

December corn added 6¢ to $3.68¾ a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade after the report.

Soybean production is now pegged at 4.69 billion bushels, also surprisingly lower. Analysts had forecast output in a range from 4.722 billion to 4.733 billion bushels after September’s projection of 4.693 billion bushels. Yields are expected to be 53.1 bushels an acre, topping last month’s 52.8 bushel projection, but still below the 53.3 to 53.4 bushels an acre forecast by analysts.

Inventories at the end of the 2018-2019 marketing year are expected by the government to be about 885 million bushels, the USDA said, up from the September forecast of 845 million and within the range of forecasts from 860 million to 905 million.

“Soybeans have a heck of a weather story on their hands,” Grossman said. “The amount of crop damage we’re finding out there, the USDA is going to have to take note of that, but the market isn’t going to pay attention until USDA does.”

Soybeans for November delivery added 6½¢ to $8.58¾ a bushel after the report. Soymeal was up $1.30 to $317 a short ton, and soy oil added 0.09¢ to 29.02¢ a pound.

Wheat stockpiles, meanwhile, likely will come in at 956 million bushels at the end of the grain’s marketing year on May 31. That’s up from last month’s outlook for 935 million and analysts’ expectations for 950 million, the USDA said.

Wheat for December delivery fell 3¼¢ to $5.07¼ a bushel, and Kansas City futures lost 3½¢ to $5.12¾ a bushel.

Soybean futures and corn tumbled the maximum allowed on the Chicago Board of Trade and wheat plunged the most in seven months on concern that the earthquake and nuclear crisis in Japan will reduce raw-material demand.

Equities in Japan had the biggest two-day drop since the 1987 crash as the risk of radiation leaks north of Tokyo escalated. U.S. Treasuries surged. Japan is the world’s leading buyer of corn, the third-largest importer of soybeans and the fifth-biggest purchaser of wheat.

“Increasing levels of radiation have people dumping positions in stocks and commodities and piling assets into cash,” said Alan Brugler, the president of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC in Omaha, Nebraska. “There’s increased risk aversion until the situation stabilizes in Japan.”

Corn futures for May delivery fell by the CBOT limit of 30 cents, or 4.5 percent, to close at $6.36 a bushel at 1:15 p.m., the lowest since Jan. 20.

Soybean futures for May delivery declined the 70-cent maximum, or 5.2 percent, to close at $12.70 a bushel, the lowest since Dec. 13.

Wheat futures for May delivery dropped 53 cents, or 7.4 percent, to close at $6.6775 a bushel in Chicago, the biggest decline since Aug. 6.

Oats fell the 20-cent maximum to a six-month low, while rice and soybean-oil futures also fell by the exchange limits in Chicago.

Shipments into Kashima and other ports on Japan’s east coast were stopped because of power outages after the 9.0- magnitude earthquake and tsunami, Zen-Noh, Japan’s largest corn buyer, said yesterday. Japan said today it plans to buy 32,381 metric tons of wheat in a tender on March 17, 76 percent less than it purchased last week.

Screen Imports

Asian countries moved to screen food imports from Japan following explosions at the Fukushima nuclear plant that raised radiation levels at the complex to harmful levels.

South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines took steps to check fruit, vegetables, meat and seafood from Japan for nuclear material.

“It’s a fear-driven trade” focused on Japan, said Frank Cholly Sr., a senior strategist at Lind-Waldock, a broker in Chicago. “Demand is going to slow down, because even though they need to eat, they have more urgent things. They’ve got to stop the radiation leak, and they’ve got to find any survivors.”

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at $38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat is the fourth-largest, behind hay, at $13 billion.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Options, cash & futures markets are separate and distinct and do not necessarily respond in the same way to similar market stimulus. A movement in the cash market would not necessarily move in tandem with the related futures and options contract being offered.