01/13/2016

2016 Predictions

Predictions for 2016 Part I

This is part I of a two part series of posts which provides the Enterprise Mobility and Connected Devices Team’s predictions for 2016. The following predictions were written by: David Krebs, Eric Klein, Cameron Roche, and Matthew Hopkins. To contact the team, please e-mail us at info@vdcresearch.com

Point: Microsoft Progresses towards Gaining Critical Mass in Mobile

Microsoft’s Windows operating system currently accounts for less than five percent of the smartphone market despite many efforts—most notably its acquisition of Nokia—to revitalize its mobile portfolio. However, 2016 will mark the first full year of Windows 10. This new operating system enables applications to work across all Microsoft devices; thus countering an argument that critical mobile mass is necessary for robust application development. The Windows Continuum allows developers to develop for all devices in the Microsoft ecosystem, thus ensuring an extensive marketplace of enterprise and consumer apps. Moreover, smartphones have largely become commoditized, and with differentiation fading, Microsoft has a new opportunity to enter a static market with new, sophisticated, and affordable mobile devices. A window of opportunity is opening for Microsoft in the mobile space as the previous barriers to success are fast eroding. Microsoft should gain market share because Windows 10 creates a stronger “mobile” developer community that will design applications for sophisticated devices in various form factors that meet the needs of consumers and enterprises alike. Moreover, the novelty of Apple products is declining while their price remains the same, and the gap between high-end and low-end phones continues to blur. From an enterprise mobility perspective, in segments such as retail, we are witnessing a strong desire to create consistent experiences – from POS to clienteling – and the Windows 10 Continuum value proposition aligns well with those requirements. These dynamics present Microsoft with a unique opportunity in 2016.

Counterpoint: Mobile OS is No Longer Strategic to Microsoft

Yes, it is hard to consider something strategic that is teetering at 1-2% market share globally. However, following Steve Ballmer’s bombastic “My way or the highway” approach to conquering the mobile market, one of Satya Nadella’s greatest accomplishments during his still young tenure at the helm of Microsoft is recognizing that Microsoft can be successful and have a lot to offer to mobile users even though it does not dominate the underlying OS. This OS and hardware agnostic approach has seen Microsoft enable and optimize its core services – from Office to Skpe – to work on Android and iOS, the two clear mobile OS leaders. Not to mention that Microsoft makes $2 billion in royalty payments from Android OEMs. Yes, Microsoft would still love to see its mobile OS share grow and, yes, Windows 10 does offer unique differentiation with Continuum. However, outside diehard Microsoft supporters and those curious enough to make the switch, it is unlikely that adoption will be sufficient to propel Microsoft market share to double digits.

Enhanced Privacy: A BlackBerry Resurgence?

In the wake of the 2015 expansion of ISIS, hardware and software companies were pressured by governments to reduce encryptions or create back-end ways for monitoring potentially dangerous activity. The hardware and software communities will continue to push against these requests as their own quest for secure data continues in light of hacks and breaches. Expect to see more complex encryption techniques from software, mobile payment, and app creators. Additionally, expect to see hardware vendors leverage advanced biometrics. With the introduction of iris scanning into consumer-grade cell phones (e.g. Microsoft Lumia 950); look for further penetration of iris technology. Also, with fingerprint scanning penetrating both high and mid range consumer-grade devices, some rugged or semi-rugged devices may also see enhanced biometrics in 2016. Finally, the focus on privacy and security may also provide BlackBerry’s hardware endeavors with another chance at life. The relatively positive reception of the BlackBerry Priv and rumors about a modernized design on their next smartphone are indicators that 2016 will provide BlackBerry with an opportunity for success not only in software, but also in hardware.

2016 will be pivotal year for the technology industry writ large. Mobile and cloud computing will continue to disrupt how IT services are provisioned, as both personal and corporate computing continues to migrate to mobile platforms. However, how strategic is mobility really to today’s workforce and is the opportunity appropriately aligned with IT vendor’s initiatives? When it comes to customer engagement in segments such as retail then, absolutely, mobility initiatives or digital transformation (or whichever buzzword is currently trendy) are strategic and represent critical competitive initiatives. However, what about today’s workforce? Our research suggests that the workforce is increasingly mobile – estimated at approximately one third of the workforce or 1.4 billion workers. And, yes, the adoption/penetration of sophisticated mobile devices continues to scale – in 2015 global shipments of smartphones and tablets reached 1.6B units. However, when looking at how enterprises are truly leveraging these mobile devices to support or enhance mobile workflows the reality is that we are barely out of the starting gates. Outside of task or line workers such as warehouse workers, delivery drivers, retail associates, service technicians who rely on mobile solutions to support very specific and critical workflows, this opportunity has had a very slow burn rate. In fact, VDC’s research suggests that of the overall 1.6B smart device shipments in 2015, only 50M were deployed to support enterprise mobility workflows (this excludes the use of smart devices for email and basic productivity applications).

Yes, enterprise mobility is extremely challenging as is accurately conveying the ROI of many B2B opportunities. As a result we are seeing a shift among larger IT/technology powerhouses and their enterprise mobility initiatives. Standalone (enterprise) mobility practices will be a thing of the past as organizations realize the value of mobile as an enabling technology of a broader initiative (hello, Digital Transformation) rather than a standalone solution. This will represent a huge challenge for some of the pure-plays especially as some mobile capabilities – MDM representing the obvious example – become commoditized to the point that they are given away for free.