Friday, July 23, 2010

Delmon Young's RISPy Business

In 2006, the Twins’ backup
catcher Mike Redmond encouraged his teammates to “smell” the RBIs. This year, Delmon
Young is upping the ante and apparently using all five senses. In fact, considering
his league-best .419 batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP) he
may be using a sixth or possibly even seventh sense during those all-important
run-producing situations.

Because Young has made
wholesale improvements to his mechanics, which has led to better overall
contact, his numbers have steadily risen. Undoubtedly, this has made him a
better all-around offensive contributor. Given the opportunity to hit with
runners on base frequently, the Twins’ left fielder has delivered repeatedly in
2010. Young has come to the plate with 257 runners on base and has driven in
23% of those runners – the highest rate in the American League.

While Young was good in RISP
situations (hitting .313 with 49 RBI) in ’09, he wasn’t otherworldly like he
has been this year. Using the pitch f/x tool found at www.joelefkowtiz.com,
we can scrutinize what has made Young such an RBI monster:

Delmon Young with RISP:

K%

Miss%

Ball In Play%

Line Drive%

2009

22.7%

25.2%

28.3%

21.5%

2010

9.2%

19.8%

39.0%

28.8%

Simply avoiding strikeouts
has been a major upgrade in his game. The other key component to achieving an
RBI that goes hand-in-hand with the first point is that he has been his ability
to put the ball in play. Additionally, you can see that Young is driving the
ball better with an increased line drive rate as well.

Last night’s at-bat in the
first inning with two outs and the bases drunk with Twins was a microcosm of
what has made Young so successful this year. With the count 3-2, Kevin Millwood
threw Delmon Young a slider and Young drove the pitch to the left-center field
gap to clear the bases. A year ago, the results may have been wildly different
for two reasons.

First, with two-strikes against
him, Young was essentially a dead-man walking in ‘09.

In 45% of his total plate
appearances that advanced to the two-strike stage, he eventually struck out. This
season, his battle tendencies have improved dramatically. When in the hole by
two-strikes, Young has struck out in just 29% of those matchups, well-below the
league average of 35%. As you can see from the chart above, Young has been even
more prudent in avoiding strikeouts in those critical RBI situations – dropping
his K-rate from 22.7% to 9.2%.

Secondly, the mere
appearance of a slider would have stopped Young cold in ‘09.

For whatever reason,
whenever a pitcher threw him a wrinkle last year, Young was useless. Often,
pitches would break over the left-handed batter’s box and Young would flail
helplessly at it. His slugging percentage on sliders was at a lowly .245 while
his well-hit average was down to .160. This season, like almost every other pitch
type, Young is mashing it as evidence by his .447 slugging percentage and .247
well-hit average. This development is noteworthy as pitchers thoroughly enjoy
throwing Young sliders on a regular basis when runners are in scoring position.

Yes, Young still eschews
walks, swings at everything directed at him and, because of the laws of
regression, his RISP average will likely slink back down towards his overall
batting average. Nevertheless, this production has been a primary reason the
team has remained competitive during a time when the team’s previously thought
of run-producers have been MIA. Without question, with his improved
capabilities, Young is deserving of a move to the fifth spot in the lineup
where he will have a greater number of RBI opportunities presented to him.

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About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."