Stuff

YouGov’s daily poll has figures of CON 37%(+1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 17%(-3). It looks as though that sudden 20% for the Lib Dems yesterday was no more than a blip, and we are back to a 5 point Conservative lead.

We are still within the margin of error of the 6 point Tory lead that YouGov have had for about three weeks now, but the last four polls have all shown the lead below 6. It looks to me as though things may still be very gently narrowing.

Looking ahead, we today had confirmation that the Budget would be on the 24th March. Late last year I flagged it up as one of the known unknowns ahead that could potentially change the political scene (the other remaining one being the leaders’ debates) – I looked at the political impact of some recent budgets back in 2009 here

303 Responses to “YouGov Daily Poll – 37/32/17”

The recruitment of Carol Vorderman is a brilliant example of how the Tories seem intent on throwing away the election that was theirs for the taking. Aligning yourself with someone who will lend their name to anything as long as it pays, like doing adverts for dodgy finance companies, will not impress anyone. Who is there at Central Office who can get a grip – or is it too late?

Anthony, use of online and telephone polling may reduce or eliminate the problem of geographical clustering. But it may introduce other sorts of issue. e.g. farms using business rather than personal telephones or, in very remote areas, the unavailability of cellphone and broadband services. Without inspect how the polls operate in detail, I would not know how adequately they compensate for these problems. But I suspect that if there are pitfalls rural areas are likely to fall into them.

Pete B raises a legitimate issue about postal voting, although not in the way I would have done. Also, his point about double registration has been replied to by OldNat, whose response reflects an uncomfortable situation.