Inside The Bills

The end goal of the playoffs unfortunately did not come to fruition this season, but the support of the Bills fans never wavered. One more game up in New England this week. Now for your questions from email at AskChris@bills.nfl.net and on Twitter @ChrisBrownBills.

1 – Chris,
I think the reason Buffalo cannot win is because they don’t have a franchise quarterback. The reason they don’t have a franchise quarterback is because of how quickly the head coach and the entire staff get fired. There is no way a quarterback will develop if the system changes continually. There are very good examples of this and I will give one … Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning managed only two wins his first year yet the management and fan base stuck with him. Why won’t buffalo bills fan base back a quarter back other than Jim Kelly?

Michael from Nebraska

CB: Your points are very valid. This is the value of continuity that I believe team president Russ Brandon was getting at in a radio interview recently. Constant change over the past 15 years (6 head coaches hired, 9 offensive coordinators, 7 defensive coordinators) has unquestionably compromised the development of young talent on the roster because the approach and philosophy of coaches obviously differs.

J.P. Losman may never have been a great quarterback, but having three different offensive coordinators in his five years with the team greatly impacted his improvement as a player. There’s no debating that changing systems requires a period of adjustment for all players. There’s also a period of adjustment for new coaches, who must learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the talent they inherit.

That’s why the dominance of the Patriots in the AFC East has persisted for so long. It’s not only because they’ve been able to enjoy continuity under Bill Belichick, but their success is also the byproduct of a lack of continuity with the rest of the division. The Jets, Dolphins and Bills have all had a good deal of head coaching and coordinator turnover since2000 with New York expected to see more this offseason.

Change can be good for the clubs that choose that course, but the odds are even better that New England will benefit as a result of that change within their division.

2 – Hey Chris,
Everyone seems to be singling out the QB play, but personally I don’t think that’s the main issue right now; it’s just the easiest to blame. When I watch Orton, I see a pocket passer who makes probably about 7 or 8 out of 10 throws to open receivers when he’s protected. The problem is we can’t run the ball, so the defense tees off on him when he drops back to pass and that further exasperates our horrible pass protection.

That’s why we can’t make plays down the field, because there isn’t the time to let the play develop. Every time I see Orton try to wait for a receiver to come open down the field he has to throw it early, and he’s usually still taking a pretty good hit, so it’s not like he’s throwing it earlier than he has to. Also our receivers have struggled to get open quite a bit this year; I imagine a running game would help with play action, which would help our receivers and O-line.

People seem to forget the super bowl quickly, as great as Peyton Manning is, even he couldn’t win without a running game and pass protection. The plan by this regime was originally to be a dominate run team that plays defense. And I think Orton is a good enough QB to execute that. Just look at his stats after 9 games. To me it shows that he’s capable of passing for around 25 td’s, 12-14 int’s, and around 4,000 yards. If we can run the ball and play defense that is good enough to win. With improved o-line play he might even be able to do better than that.

CB: I don’t disagree with some of the points you make here. I do think however, there have been instances where with time to throw, Orton has simple been inaccurate. Against the Raiders there were two plays on the same drive where Orton missed Hogan running an underneath checkdown route when he stepped up in the pocket. He also missed Watkins on a deep out route with clear separation when he was not under duress.

Obviously all quarterbacks miss throws, but his misses are magnified because the margin for error for this offense is smaller than most. That’s because, as you point out, the run game has fallen on hard times this season. If Buffalo still had the number two rushing offense in the league this season, as they had last year, I believe the Bills would be a playoff team right now.

Unfortunately balance has been sorely absent in Buffalo’s offense more than anything else. The last time the Bills had true balance in their offense was against the Jets in Detroit when they won 38-3. Even when they attempted to have balance in Week 15 against Green Bay, though there wasn’t a great deal of production they were still effective enough to get a win with their strong defense.

When the Bills don’t have balance on offense they do run into a lot of the problems you mention. And since those other elements of their offense are just average, when they’re depended upon to solve the offensive problems, they usually come up short on that side of the ball. And that leads to a lack of points and unless you’re close to averaging 23-24 points per game it’s unlikely you’re going to win more than you lose in the NFL.

3 – Chris,
When the Bills had to play New York Jets in Detroit and free tickets were given out, is the lost in revenue be distributed or totally absorbed by one or two teams?

C.J. Wong

CB: The Bills, along with most other NFL clubs, has what’s called business interruption insurance. That covers the cost of any financial or revenue losses incurred by having to relocate the Week 12 home game against the Jets to Detroit.

The split of the gate revenue lost for that home game will likely remain the same (60-40). How insurance will determine the revenue lost will likely be based on the number of tickets sold leading up to the game along with a few other estimated variables.

4 – Chris,

Regarding the college draft for the Bills organization, how is the player evaluated? Who makes the final decision on the draft? The Bills has to be congratulated for great finds like Kiko Alonso and Preston
Brown. The skill of Marcell Dareus and Sammy Watkins is public knowledge before the draft. How can we avoid the annual blunders, namely T.J. Graham in 2012, E.J. Manuel in 2013 and Cyrus Kouandjio in 2014? E.J. has great disposition. His shortcoming in precision, judgment and often exposes his receivers for big hit is worrisome. I wish him nothing but the best.

Thanks,

CW

CB: Concerning the college draft GM Doug Whaley makes the final call on a draft choice.

Avoiding draft misses like Graham can’t be completely avoided. There are simply too many variables to successfully navigate a team clear of such picks.

Far beyond, height, weight, speed, character and on field disposition are things that no one can truly measure like how a college player’s game will translate to the NFL.

A perfect example is former Bills WR Josh Reed. At LSU Reed AVERAGED 145 receiving yards a game in an era of college football that hadn’t quite exploded into a wide open spread game with inflated numbers. He was the Biletnikoff winner (award for nation’s best college WR) and when the Bills drafted him in round two back in 2002 he was considered one of the steals of the draft.

We all know how that turned out.

Statistical studies have shown that if a team can hit on 40 percent of their draft choices they are doing very, very well. And most NFL clubs don’t even reach that success rate.

I also think it’s premature to call EJ Manuel or Cyrus Kouandjio draft blunders. High draft choices admittedly come with high expectations, right or wrong, but patience with such talent can often be rewarded.

5 – Hi Chris,

I have a question with regards to offensive creativity. I feel that the Bills offense is incredibly bland when looking at other teams. Obviously we will never be the Patriots but when you watch them they go five wide and other times put Edelman in motion all over to create matchups and get separation. Sammy stays in one spot every time. We also currently have NO play action.

I feel Orton needs to get under center and create some play action or something – we’re TERRIBLE running the ball out of shotgun. I understand the slower tempo but where is the imagination and slant routes and deep middle crosses??

I feel like I’m watching Dick Jauron’s offense and our players are so much better now it’s just so frustrating. I’m also interested in your take on our offensive line coach who no one talks about. Our O line is regressing due to scheme and technique and I thought this was a questionable hire initially and I think we would do well with some new blood there.

It still is beyond me that we can have a kickoff specialist who can’t kick the ball out of the end zone in DENVER and we leave Mike Williams off roster and have no five wide formations. Count me in as one who thinks Marrone’s offense is better suited for college than the pros.

Sincerely,

Chris P.

CB: It’s my belief that a lot of the limitations we’ve seen in terms of play calling are rooted in what the coaching staff believes, or doesn’t believe, the unit is capable of executing on a consistent basis. With the struggles of the run game this season to execute effectively, the balance of the offense which is designed to play off a productive run game have been largely compromised as mentioned above.

You can’t have play action if you have a run game that is not producing. If a defense can stop your run game with seven defenders, play action doesn’t draw that safety up into the box to stop the run and leave the secondary with one fewer defender.

I respect the frustration, but with a young receiving corps with no one with more than a couple of NFL seasons under their belt I think the staff is hesitant to expand the scope of the offense for fear of sacrificing what consistency they believe they have.

As we covered in the first installment of our ‘On the Clock’ series driven by Michelin and Dunn Tire, ‘Rise of the Right Tackle’ there were several top tackle draft choices, who began their career playing right tackle instead of the more anticipated left tackle position. From 2007-2013 here is a look at the offensive tackles taken in rounds one and two and where they lined up to start their careers.

Bills need to put an end to a three-game losing streak. A win over the Jets would be a good way to go into the bye. Here is your latest edition of questions on email at AskChris@bills.nfl.net and on Twitter @ChrisBrownBills.

1 – Chris:

The Bills did not seem to be using Fred Jackson and CJ spiller in the game at the same time very much when they were both healthy this season. Do you think we will ever see them utilized in a pro set or veer formation? I just could see that as a great asset to utilize in a fast paced offence.

Thanks,
Chris

CB: Through the first 10 games I’ve got the Bills using their split back formation with Fred and C.J. on just four plays this season. They used it against the Jets in the first meeting in Week 3, so perhaps it’s rolled out again on Sunday.

As for a veer offense, coach Marrone has gone on record saying that’s not something they would do here in Buffalo.

2 – Hi Chris,

I love your articles! With analytics being the buzz did anyone at the bills analyze how how many times we ran the ball between the tackles this year and got less than 4 yards a carry? Not end sweeps.

Thanks,
45 year bills fan

CB: I can’t tell you how many rushes specifically went for less than four yards, but I can tell you after 10 games where the gains have been the most successful to this point this year.

3 – Hey Chris,
Thanks for everything you do keeping us fans informed! I wanted to ask

Depending on how EJ plays down the stretch, and depending on where the Bills are drafting next year, do you think there’s ANY chance the Bills consider taking a QB in the first round next year to compete with EJ? Or do you think EJ gets 2-3 years before another QB is considered? (I think it’s too early to tell what the Bills have in EJ yet, but there seem to be some really good QBs in college this year, and this team seems to have all the pieces in place except (possibly) QB to make a serious run next year)

Also, do you think the Bills will consider doing any retooling at the WR position during the bye week? They seem to have 3 talented WRs in Stevie, Woods, and Goodwin. But Stevie’s production seems to have gone down since moving to the slot and Graham hasn’t been impressive so far. Goodwin seems to be faster and have better hands.

Adam

CB: I’m going to let coach Marrone handle this one. Here’s what he said concerning their investment in EJ. Here’s what coach said about Manuel this week.

“He needs to be out there. The more he’s out there, the better he’s getting. Also, I want to make sure everyone understands, I truly believe in this quarterback.

“He’s shown that he can do it. He’s shown that he progresses during the course of the year, and during each and every play and each and every game. When I go back and look at it, I see him getting better as the game goes on. And I think that’s what you see with a young quarterback.

“If we want to sit here, and I say we, it’s all of us now, and we see this young guy, we’ve got to be able to say let’s let this guy develop and let’s go, and he’s going to get better each week.

“As far as his work ethic and how he goes about the game and all those other things, he’s outstanding. The respect that he has from his teammates is outstanding. When does it ever come to the point where you are that person, you are that guy, how long does it have to be? You’ve got to win. You’ve got to consistently win. A lot gets put on his plate for that, but a lot of the rest of us, including myself and the coaches, we’ve all got to do our part and we’ve all got to play well around him to be successful.”

4 – Chris,
I’ve noticed the Bills are lacking a big ‘go up and get it’ WR. Why has Easley seen so few offense snaps? I’ve seen him make great plays on special teams. Why don’t they try him more in the offense. He’s more physical than Graham and Goodwin. He’s still raw but they aren’t giving him the chance to see the field as WR.

Josh

CB: You’re right that Buffalo does not have a big-bodied, jump ball type of receiver, which is part of the reason they’ve had a problem in the red zone of late. They have Scott Chandler, who is a height mismatch, but need a receiver that can work the corners of the end zone on fades and jump balls.

Easley, even if he does not play much between the 20’s, could be part of the team’s red zone package knowing he’s a big 6’2” and 217 pounds. He should get some opportunities Sunday down there knowing Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods are out.

5 – I think Believe EJ Manuel would benefit greatly if the bills drafted a good young tight end prospect . Names Like Eric ebron North Carolina, Jace amaro Texas tech, and Austin seferian Jenkins of Washington come to mind. If the bills do not draft a te in the top half of the draft do they look elsewhere for a good te prospect such as a basketball player type . UB’s Javon McCrea who has soft hands and a huge frame comes to mind . Any Chance the bills are Looking at an option Like This ?

Thanks !

Dustin in Alden

CB: With all due respect I think you’re overlooking Chris Gragg, who finally got some measurable playing time on offense in Pittsburgh. I think he’ll also factor in on offense in the passing game this week with Woods and Johnson out.

Gragg is an athletic pass catcher, who just needs time on the job. He tore his ACL in college and still runs a 4.5 40-time. There’s potential there.

ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay released his Top 5 draft class list and though Buffalo did not make the top 5, they did get notable billing as well as some interesting comments related to EJ Manuel’s knee injury.

Buffalo Bills: If EJ Manuel hadn’t gotten hurt and was able to lead the Bills to a couple of more wins, Buffalo could easily have the top-rated rookie class. But Bills fans still have to be pleased with the results. They could wind up with a starting QB, a pair of impact WRs in Robert Woods and Marquise Goodman and a star at LB in Kiko Alonso. A second-rounder, Alonso immediately emerged as a high-impact performer. His instincts, quickness, hands and high-revving motor all stand out on tape. Ultimately, the success of this class will depend upon Manuel’s durability and development.

Week 2 on tap and a win is pretty much a must. Here are some of the more popular questions from you the fans this week. Keep the questions coming on email at AskChris@bills.nfl.net and on Twitter @ChrisBrownBills.

CB: Gilmore has made good progress since his surgery on Aug. 26th for his fractured wrist. The cast is off and he’s just wearing an immobilizer brace at this point. But the pins are still in his wrist and there is a lot of rehabilitation in front of him. Head coach Doug Marrone said he felt Gilmore was on the short end of the six to eight week timetable provided from the outset. If he is then, six weeks would put him at Oct. 7th, with a return to practice probably taking place in Week 6 in advance of the Oct. 13th game against Cincinnati.

CB: Yes, that is correct. The I-R designated to return can only be used once a season. At this point in the season if a player goes on injured reserve and the club wants to make him their designated to return player, it has to be declared as soon as he’s placed on I-R.

I thought the Bills might make use of the DTR tag on Ron Brooks this week, knowing he was the DTR player last season when he broke the same foot. But head coach Doug Marrone said they don’t believe his situation or that of Marquise Goodwin necessitates the use of the I-R DTR.

3 – Hi Chris,

Always like reading your material & watching your short videos. Keep ‘em coming. As a transplanted Buffalo guy living in Reno, I can’t help but be curious about Duke Williams. He’s either been below the radar, or not showing much in preseason. Any observations/thoughts? I watched him play a bunch at Nevada, and was hoping he’d be able to make a go of it at the next level…

Hope the weather in WNY is treating you well. The only time I get nostalgic about it is the fall–leaves changing, and football.

Thanks,Dan Matteson

CB: Duke has done well throughout the course of the offseason and typically ran with the second unit defense through the preseason. He got four snaps on defense in Week 1, but is going to be spending most of his time on special teams. He played 15 snaps there last week.

Moving forward he’s likely to see more time on defense in certain subpackages as the season wears on.

Say hi to the folks at Black Bear Diner in Reno. Best milkshake I’ve ever had! Thanks for the compliments.

4 – Chris

Thanks for all of the fine coverage of the Bills. From the outside looking in, the whole attitude of the team seemed the change when J. Byrd showed up, is he a poison in the locker room?

Going with the assumption that the quarterback is the most valuable piece on the chess board, do you believe it was a critical error for our former GM to not draft a quarterback somewhere in the first three rounds every year. If you hit on a few, more value at the most important position.

Lastly, even if Manuel plays well, should the Bills draft a quarterback in the 1st round in the upcoming draft.

Thanks for everything from Bills fans in Nevada.

Hank
Las Vegas

CB: I think your characterization of the locker room is a bit off the mark concerning Jairus Byrd’s arrival.

With respect to the philosophy of drafting a quarterback every year, I’m not opposed to it if you are a team with good quality depth at most positions where you can afford to spend a draft choice on a QB prospect every year. The Eagles have traditionally made a habit of this and have shrewdly traded some of those QBs for future draft choices in return (See: A.J. Feeley trade).

If Manuel pans out as most in the organization expect him to, I don’t believe drafting a quarterback in round one will happen. Not only because the team will already have their franchise signal caller, but also because they’re very pleased with who they have behind him in Jeff Tuel.

I don’t think you could completely rule it out, but I would say highly unlikely if Manuel’s career track shows good progress through the course of this season.

5 – Hi Chris,

It was noted that Jamal Westermann made the roster, however i know very little about this athlete. Can you provide a bit of information as to how he made the team.
Thanks & regards
from
Richard in Los AngelesCB: He’s a fourth-year player that is wholly familiar with coach Pettine’s defensive scheme having played for him with the Jets in New York from 2009-2011. He’s an OLB by trade. Here’s a bit more on him when he initially signed in mid-August.

He’s seen both sides of it now. Former Bills GM Bill Polian has run draft rooms, as the General Manager of the Bills, the Panthers and the Colts.

And for the last two years, Polian has covered the draft in his role as an NFL analyst for ESPN.

In an appearance on The John Murphy Show Monday night, the Bills Wall of Famer said he’s just come to the realization than the draft gurus on the air, like Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock, have a much different job than the team GMs in the draft rooms.

“When I was a general manager, I always used to think the analysts on television were as far off-base as it was possible to be,” Polian said. “But then, when I got to ESPN and I realized what Mel Kiper and Todd McShay do, what they’re doing is about 180-degrees opposite of what a general manager does.”

“As a GM, you’re just trying to pick the seven best players and then sign 7-10 collegiate free agents that you think are going to help your team. As the process gets closer to draft day, you have winnowed the board down to a very few players from a lot. Conversely, Mel and Todd and to a lesser degree, myself, because I had to know the players, we’re looking at everybody. That’s an almost impossible and incredibly large task. They do a great job of it.”

The entire interview with Bill Polian is available at Buffalobills.com\johnmurphyshow

The phone calls are likely to pick up in the next 24-hours. NFL teams will be checking with each other to gauge their interest in making a move in the draft.

Bills Assistant GM Doug Whaley says moving up or down in the draft is a lot more complicated than deciding to move.

“Everybody says, ‘why don’t the Bills move down?’ Well, it takes two to move. And that’s something that you can never plan on and you can never predict,” Whaley said, in an appearance on The John Murphy Show.

“And some times, the phone is silent,” Whaley said. “Sometimes the phone is ringing off the hook. The way we go into it, is we always have a plan for picking the player, and we always have a plan for moving down, and how far we want to move down, before we get out of the range of a player who we think is going to upgrade us.”

Whaley said communication among teams will pick up in the next 24-hours. But most teams are not willing to show their cards to the other NFL clubs.

“They wouldn’t tell us what they want,” Whaley said, “but they would tell us more, ‘Hey, you’re ahead of us, we wouldn’t mind moving up. So contact us if you’re on the clock and you’re feeling that.’ Or, ‘Hey, we’re ahead of you guys and we wouldn’t mind moving down.’ They’re not going to sit there and say ‘we’re looking for this player or that player,’ but they will tell us if they have a feeling or propensity to move.”

The entire interview with Doug Whaley is available at Buffalobills.com\johnmurphyshow

Less than 24-hours before the names start coming off the board, the Buffalo Bills are set. Assistant GM Doug Whaley says the Bills draft board has been set for the last day or so.

Whaley made the comments in an appearance Wednesday night on The John Murphy Show. He says the scouting staff has been working the last few days to fine tune the board before Thursday night’s first round.

“What we’ll do is take the total body of work,” Whaley said, “the resume from this guy from when we started this process last May, through the fall, through the all-star games and the combine, through the spring information from pro days and visits, and say, ‘From everything you’ve seen, how do you feel about this guy?’ That’s when we fine tune it, and that’s when we put a final grade on a guy.”

The goal, according to Whaley, is to have the board set up and all contingencies accounted for well ahead of the start of the first round.

“Everybody always asks me, is it hectic on draft day? And the answer is no,” Whaley told host John Murphy. “We’re well prepared and we have the board set for our top eight players. As the players get called, we start taking them off our board, and then it becomes our pick.”

“Usually, about one pick before us, we start looking at who’s up there. And there are usually those two or three guys that we thought were the best eight players up there. That’s when the discussion goes, which player out of these two or three guys will we go for.”

The entire interview with Doug Whaley is available at Buffalobills.com\johnmurphyshow

Florida State QB E.J. Manuel has made a pretty steady climb on the pre-draft rating boards in the last few months. His performance the Senior Bowl, where he was the Offensive MVP of the game, got him started on the right foot this offseason.

And Manuel says his goal all along was to hear his name called in the first round of the NFL draft on April 25th. He made the comments Friday night in an appearance on The John Murphy Show.

“It is important to me,” Manuel said. “It’s one of the things you can be proud of, to say I was a first round pick in the NFL draft. But I know that’s not up to me. All I can really control is how I played in the Senior Bowl, how I looked in the combine, how I interviewed with coaches in the last three months. Those things, I’ve done well in the last three months.”

Manuel has been hovering around the first and second rounds of most mock draft for the last few weeks. But once he’s drafted, he wants to play as soon as possible. Radio Host John Murphy asked the FSU Seminole if he expects to start right away in the NFL.

“I think so,” he answered. “The biggest thing for me is earning the respect of my teammates and coaches. I think everything else will fall into place after that. Once you get guys to believe you can do it, that’s where the qualities of being a starter come from. You have to show you can do it first.”

The entire interview with Florida State QB E.J. Manuel is available at Buffalobills.com\johnmurphyshow

The idea came up at the NFL Scouting Combine last week–the plan to possibly move the NFL’s offseason timetable.

In an effort to get the NFL Draft into the important May Sweeps period for TV, the idea was floated to push back the major offseason events: the Scouting Combine would move to March, Free Agency to April, and the Draft would be held in May.

Not a good idea, according to ESPN Senior NFL Analyst Chris Mortensen.

“Shame on them for just having the discussion,” Mortensen said as the Scouting Combine wrapped up in Indianapolis.

“There’s never going to be free agency in April. It ain’t going to happen. You gotta get union approval. Why would they do that? They’re already upset (the union) because it’s March 12th.”

Mortensen says the plan to move the draft back into May is more plausible and has been around for awhile.

“It’s been discussed about five or ten years to put the draft into May,” he said, “to that first week of May. That’s only pushing it back about one week, that’s not a big deal. But free agency will never happen in April. They’ll never get union approval on that.”

Mortensen clearly was irritated that the league is considering moving its’ offseason dates without consulting with football departments.

“It would be nice to see some football people make these decisions, instead of the business and marketing people in this league, which is happening way too often,” he said.

There’s plenty to choose from in the NFL Draft Class this year, when it comes to quarterbacks. And one of the top ESPN NFL analysts says when the Buffalo Bills look over the QB crop, they should look for a big, strong arm.

ESPN’s Senior NFL Analyst Chris Mortensen had that prescription for the Bills, and every other cold weather team, after the NFL Scouting Combine wrapped up this week in Indianapolis.

The Bills have made no secret of their plans to add a quarterback through the draft. But Mortensen says that does not necessarily mean they’ll pick a QB in the first round.

“To me, you can wait until the second round,” Mortensen said. “I think Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley feel like we have to evaluate this position properly and correctly and then pick one and develop that guy. We always think it should be in the first round. But take John Dorsey, GM of the Chiefs, he was in Green Bay when they drafted Aaron Rodgers with the 24th pick, got Brett Favre in the second round, Matt Hasselbeck in the sixth round, Mark Brunell in the fifth round, and he signed Kurt Warner as an undrafted free agent. You still have to evaluate that other group. It’s hard to just pick one.”

After watching the QB workouts at the combine over the weekend, Mortensen came away impressed with West Virginia’s man, Geno Smith.

“Geno Smith did very well here. I was not surprised, but I did hear from some teams picking in the top ten-this guy helped himself. Normally, you don’t hear that about quarterbacks here, because quarterbacks generally cannot go up or down based on what they do here.”

Now that the NFL Scouting combine is history, the next order of business on the offseason calendar is free agency. Tuesday, March 12th at 4pm is when the free agency period begins. And ESPN”s Senior NFL Analyst, Chris Mortensen, says teams will have to mix their free agent evaluations into their draft evaluations.

“You’re looking to put together a combination of free agency, your own free agents, other people’s free agents, and combine them with what you see here in the draft as you continue to evaluate these guys,” Mortensen said, as the annual Scouting Combine wrapped up in Indianapolis. “Because what you do in free agency, no matter what they say, is still going to dictate some of what you do in the draft.”

Mortensen says despite the lack of “star power” in this year’s draft class, it is loaded with talent. And he says NFL scouts have plenty of reasons to anticipate drafting some play makers this year.

“The scouts are excited about this draft” he says. “what it lacks is box office stars, guys like Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III.”

“To me, it was exciting to see Tavon Austin of West Virginia, a guy we watched get over 500-yards of offense against Oklahoma, 300-of those yards on the ground, a guy people think has some Percy Harvin, some Darren Sproles, some DeSean Jackson in him, I just think all tree pretty electrifying players, and Austin comes out and verifies that he’s really fast. He runs 4.34 electronicially. To me, there are still a lot of quality players in this draft. “

We make way for hockey tonight, so The John Murphy Show is available on podcast. On tonight’s show, we’ll talk with Russ Lande, Director of Scouting for the National Football Post. He thinks Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib is the best prospect in the draft this year, the best overall. Lande has Nassib ranked number one on his list the National Football Post 200 Draft Prospects. We’ll talk with him about that.
Also tonight, Evan Silva of Rotoworld.com joins us to review the free agent QBs available, with the NFL Free Agency period five weeks away.The John Murphy Show podcast is available tonight at 7pm at buffalobills.com/johnmurphyshow.

CB: It’s hard to say who is and isn’t a fit since there isn’t a definitive approach to what Buffalo’s offense will look like. Yes, we know that the offense will be rooted in the west coast system, but it has been very varied and unpredictable under Nathaniel Hackett when he was at Syracuse. Hackett naturally prefers to be unpredictable.

At the same time Hackett will be looking to improve and advance the offense and suit it to Buffalo’s personnel. Manuel certainly offers the physical skills necessary to play at the NFL level. His decision making and deep ball accuracy have been questioned by some. A good number of talent evaluators out there do not think he’s a finished product suitable to lead an offense from day one.

As to whether he fits what Buffalo wants to do I’ll let Buffalo’s offensive coordinator answer that.

“Everybody could have a chance in a system like this because I could tailor it to them,” Hackett said. “Figuring out everybody across the board and who it is and then trying to fit that person into the system is the biggest critical factor.”

2 - Chris,

I’ve heard it talked about amongst fans for a long time, do you ever foresee the Bills re-aligning to the AFC North by swapping with Baltimore? I think the proximity of Cincy, Cleveland and Pittsburgh would create outstanding rivalries, with all 4 teams being within a few hours’ drive of each other. Baltimore would seemingly be a better fit for the East, being that NY, NE and Miami are all along the coast as well. Your thoughts?

Nate
Buffalo

CB: I have felt the same way for a long time. When realignment occurred in 2002 I thought that was the best case scenario for the Bills long term, but I think the preservation of classic rivalries like Miami carried the day and kept Buffalo in the East. Geographically it makes way too much sense. Unfortunately I don’t foresee a change, especially with the Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry being the fiercest in the NFL in my opinion.

Hey @ChrisBrownBills what are chances #Bills draft 2 QB’s? Besides backer and maybe free safety, what are other needs?

CB: I tend to believe that will not be the case. Buddy Nix mentioned a month ago that he said they will try to draft one and perhaps add another in free agency. I think the free agent crop is thin, but it’s my feeling that Nix and his staff would prefer to add a veteran free agent in addition to rookie. Whether the opportunity presents itself to acquire a pair of quarterbacks along those two avenues is another story.

4 – Hi Chris….
As always thanks for the great coverage. I wondered what the environment must be like at one Bills Drive now that the GM, Head Coaches and OC and DC are in place….are these guys meeting together to talk about talent….thanks

Bernie

CB: We have a story that will appear on the website about the nuts and bolts of what the new coaching staff is doing at this time. They’re evaluating cut-ups of the Bills 2012 season by position and as offensive and defensive units. Every player will have a report put together on them by the staff. There will also be a good deal of time spent by the staff on reviewing their offensive and defensive schemes, how they apply to the talent on Buffalo’s roster and how said systems can be improved for the better. All of this takes a good deal of time.

5 – Chris
Thanks for your great work. My question is about Tarvaris Jackson. Initially, when the Bills traded a draft pick to Seattle for him and became responsible for his 2012 salary, everyone assumed he would become the Bills backup QB and Thigpen (who had been unproductive in pre-season) would be cut. Then the Bills said Jackson did not know the offense well enough to be the backup, and Thigpen stayed on the roster after final cuts. But Jackson remained inactive for every game, and by mid-season the Bills said it was impossible for Jackson to learn the offense well enough to play because there was not enough practice time to give him snaps with the first team offense. Jackson remained inactive the entire season and is now an unrestricted free agent.

If the Bills’ explanation is correct, and it is impossible for a veteran QB to learn the Bills offense during the season because there is not enough practice time, why did the Bills give up a draft choice to get him when training camp was over?

BillCB: Buddy Nix has said more than once that the Tarvaris Jackson trade was a move made purely for insurance. With the Vince Young situation not working out, Buffalo had a short window to address the vacancy at the QB position without a lot of options out there short of a trade. Jackson was acquired for a seventh-round pick in the event that Ryan Fitzpatrick was hurt and out for an extended period of time. Short of a long term injury to Fitzpatrick, Jackson was never going to see the field.

To be fair to Jackson, he knew and understood the offense. The bigger issue was the previous coaching staff did not see Jackson under live fire before in their offensive system. That gives coaches ulcers when they have to put a player on the field without any prior knowledge of what they’re capable of when the real bullets are flying.

So while Jackson did his due diligence to learn the offensive system he was never afforded the opportunity to execute it in the practice setting due to time constraints. That left the previous coaching staff without any way to develop confidence in Jackson since they never saw him execute it effectively. It was very much a catch-22.

The Bills have had GM Buddy Nix at the helm for just three of the past five years, but even counting the two years prior to his move into the personnel boss’ seat, Buffalo still has a respectable ranking for their draft classes of the past five years.

Among the criteria used were:
1 – Total number of games started with earlier years in a player’s career being more heavily weighted.
2 – Number of players drafted that were active for 2012 (injured players that missed the season were not counted)
3 – Average share of annual starts (with all years evenly weighted)
4 – Number of players that were selected as original Pro Bowl players (replacements do not count)

So over the last five years, the Bills rank a very respectable 11th overall. Here’s the whole list.

I watched your interview with Buddy Nix and after seeing the hiring Coach Marrone do you think the Bills will draft a QB in the 1st Round or is a free agent a consideration? Also do you think the Bills would draft a player with off field issues like Tyronne Mathieu (Honey Badger) from LSU if available in later rounds to play as a Nickel corner? Thank you for keeping us fans informed during the Offseason!!
Thomas Neaverth

CB: I think a first round quarterback is certainly a possibility, especially in light of what Buddy Nix said late last season. He felt that they’re at a point where they may have to draft a QB a round earlier than where they have him graded. A free agent pickup is also a possibility because Nix has said they are likely to add one in the draft and possibly also in free agency.

I’d be surprised if they draft a player with a questionable background like Mathieu. Immensely talented, but I just don’t see it happening, and he won’t be available in later rounds. He’ll probably be a second round pick.

CB: Buffalo has two quality control coaches on the defensive side right now. It’s my understanding they intend to hire two more on the offensive side of the ball. On defense Brian Fleury and Jason Rebrovich are the defensive quality control coaches. Fleury is a former college quarterback at Towson and most recently served as secondary coach and special teams coordinator at his alma mater.

Rebrovich has been a defensive line coach at the college level for most of the past 11 years. He most recently served under Doug Marrone at Syracuse as a defensive assistant. He played his college ball at SUNY Cortland. He also has a background in strength and conditioning. Rebrovich is a native of Clarence, NY.

3 - Hi Chris:
Where do you think QB Nassib will fall in the draft, and would it be too risky or too much of a reach to go get him?

Thanks,
Mike from Orlando, FL

CB: I think you’re asking if it would be too much of a reach to take Nassib with the eighth overall pick. The answer to that is if you like a prospect enough and believe he can be a franchise quarterback for you then you take him no matter where you’re at.

Nassib coming into the pre-draft process was widely projected as a second-round prospect. But with this not being a banner year for quarterback prospects I would expect his value to rise as we get closer to late April. So it wouldn’t shock me at all if he’s a first-round draft choice come the spring.

4 – Hi Chris,

I really like the hiring of Marrone, and Pettine was a good hire too (he will surely have a more exciting defense than his predecessor). While I have my concerns with Hackett, I now feel like they have committed to something. My feeling is that once you commit you can’t do anything half-heartedly, and that’s why I think they now need to go after Ryan Nassib at #8 overall in the draft. What is the likelihood of this and what would be the advantages/disadvantages? . . . Is Nassib worth that high of a pick, and do you think it would be a wise choice to have HC/OC/QB all from the same program? . . . If that happens, I wouldn’t think trying to nab WR Alec Lemon in the draft would be out of the question either. What are your thoughts?

Thanks again,
B. Greenfield

CB: I think there is merit to that line of thinking. It’s hard to know exactly what the Bills prefer with respect to quarterback, but they do have an affinity for Nassib and understandably so. They spent the past three years with him as their QB. Most scouts think his game still needs some polish, but he has all the physical traits you look for. Quarterbacks as I mentioned above tend to rise up draft boards late in the process because of the importance of the position.

The obvious advantage is Nassib would walk in the door knowing the offense better than anyone else on the roster. The transition from a scheme standpoint would be seamless. That could also shorten his learning curve where he could focus more on diagnosing defenses. We saw this to some degree with Ryan Tannehill in Miami last year.

The only disadvantage is the expectations would probably be higher on him knowing he’s in the same offense. So if there are early struggles, provided he starts (and we’re really getting ahead of ourselves here), that could potentially backfire I suppose.

With respect to Alec Lemon he had over 1,000 yards receiving and eight touchdowns last season in the Orange offense. He was a late invite to the Senior Bowl. But the receiver class is deep this year. So I tend to think that happening is less of a likelihood.

Nassib is widely seen as one of the top five to eight QBs in the draft. So the odds for him one would think would be greater.

5 – Chris:
We know that the Bills are drafting No. 8 overall in the first round ahead of the Jets, even though both teams finished with the same 6-10 record. What happens in the second round? Will the order be reversed, with the Jets picking ahead of us?

I raise the question because if the Bills don’t believe that there is a QB that grades out worthy of the No. 8 overall pick, they might be targeting that second round pick, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Jets draft a QB as well. Especially, now that we have their defensive coordinator, I can see where the Jets might want to try to “one-up” the Bills.

What are your thoughts on this Chris? Thanks for your great coverage.

Dan from Cheshire, CT.CB: The Bills were in a similar situation last season. They were one of three teams that were 6-10. Miami and Carolina were the others. Since Miami and Carolina only managed six wins against a weaker strength of schedule they picked ahead of Buffalo in round one. The order was 8-Miami, 9-Carolina and 10-Buffalo. In round 2, Miami moved to the back of that group to pick 10th, while Carolina and Buffalo moved up to 8th and 9th in that round. That rotation continued in round 3 (Buffalo – 8th, Miami – 9th, Carolina 10th).

This year, it’s again a three team situation at 6-10, with the Bills, Jets and Titans. Buffalo picks 8th in round one, Jets – 9th, Titans – 10th. In round 2 Buffalo will pick 10th, with the Jets moving up to 8th and Titans to 9th.

So your argument is understandable, but personally I think the bigger concern is Arizona, which will pick 7th or 6th in every round. They clearly need a quarterback and are more of a threat. I think Philadelphia (4th) and Cleveland (6th in round one, 7th in round 2) could also be QB picking threats if their new coaches don’t like what they’ve already got on their roster. And those three teams pick ahead of Buffalo in every round.

Hey Bills fans, an exciting week here at One Bills Drive with the hiring of Coach Marrone and the coordinators Coach Hackett and Coach Pettine. I’ve met all three and I’m encouraged about what they’ll bring to the team in terms of their expertise. Let’s get to your questions from AskChris@bills.nfl.net and on Twitter @ChrisBrownBills.

1 - Hi Chris,

Just looking ahead at the possibilities of the Bills filling in some holes with Free Agency and how active they might be this coming off-season. I would love for them to make upgrades at corner, wide receiver, and linebacker (quarterback too, but that would likely be addressed in the draft). How much cap space do the Bills currently have to work with in the off-season? I know that re-signing Byrd and Levitre will be top priorities for them, but once they’re taken care of, how much room will they likely have to work with, if any at all? Would love to see Dwayne Bowe in a Bills uniform!

As always, love the coverage you provide for us … please keep up the great work!
Paul

CB: NFL clubs do not get the established salary cap for the new league year until March, but it’s projected to be around $121M. The Bills do not provide their cap figures as a team policy. Reports indicate they’ll be around $15M under. That number obviously is subject to change between now and the opening of free agency.

Bills GM Buddy Nix has already said a quarterback may be acquired in free agency. He also mentioned the need to add a “big receiver.” I don’t know if Dwayne Bowe is realistic even though he does want to go elsewhere. His price tag will be high. And you’re right Byrd and Levitre are quality players that would appear to be priorities.

2 – Hey Chris,
There has been a lot of talk about the QB position this year & the year before that & the …well you get what i’m saying . Fitz is a Bills kind of guy, hard working, hard nosed kind of QB. I was hoping & still do that he can be that guy. Going forward though in the draft this year a guy is coming out that fits all of the Parcells requirements to drafting a QB of the future . He is a SEC guy (best college conference) A senior , Has been in the program his full time in college , & is prototypical size for the NFL , good arm & college career but not a lot of people are talking about him & i was wondering your thoughts on him . The guy that i have been talking about is Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson, I think he could be a really good QB yet no one is really talking about him . What would your thoughts be on him & his future & the possibility of his & the Bills path crossing down the road ?? Then there is the Alex Smith situation, would you think there would b any for site in that direction as time ticks on ??

Once again Thank you !!
Mr.T from Fort Myers via NashvilleCB: I’m going to be honest and tell you I’m only now getting around to looking at the college players, so I can’t give you an assessment on Wilson. What I can tell you is Alex Smith will not be on San Francisco’s roster later this offseason. I’ve found that if Smith is on the 49ers roster April 1st, his entire 2013 salary will be guaranteed. The price tag? $7.5M. Now that he’s effectively San Francisco’s backup, I can’t see any way that he stays at that price in his current role.

The rub there is if the 49ers wait until the end of March to release him, it puts teams looking for a free agent QB in a bit of a bind. Free agency opens March 12th. Do you sit and wait on the 49ers clipping Smith and bypass other QB talent you might have your eye on? Or do you take what you can get at the opening bell of free agency and address the Smith availability when he’s available? Tough call.

3 – Hi Chris,

I applaud the decision to retain Mr. Nix for continuity. I am keeping my fingers cross for the next few years. My question is as follows.

When reporting injuries, the league uses terms like doubtful and probable, etc. What are all these terms exactly means?

Please keep up with the good work.
Regards,
C. J. Wong, Ph.D.

CB: The league allows for four possible listings for an injured player. They are Out, Doubtful, Questionable and Probable. There’s no need to explain out, but the league classifies the likelihood of the injured player playing with these designations as follows.

Doubtful – player has up to 25% chance of playing on Sunday
Questionable – player has up to 50% chance of playing on Sunday
Probable – player has up to 75% chance of playing on Sunday

4 – Chris,

Can you break down the Bills new coaches’ philosophy and scheme? Run heavy or pass heavy? Since the roster was built for spread how does it affect CJ, Fred, and David Nelson? I know it’s very early to speculate with not all pieces in place or other coaches. What type of offense do you think they have run? Great job on the coverage this week. By far best team website and updates by you!

Thanks,
Josh

CB: Our web staff appreciate the kind words. From what I understand from coach Marrone and coach Hackett, they ran a pro-style offense with up tempo capabilities at Syracuse. I’ve been told to think of New Orleans offense, but with a heavier run game component by those that have observed the Syracuse offense the last few years.

Coach Hackett told me that he and Coach Marrone locked themselves in a room and culled together the best of what several offenses have to offer and came up with their current system. They intend to make use of that in Buffalo.

5 – Hi Chris:
First of all, I don’t miss a blog. Keep it up! Where do you think QB Nassib will fall in the draft, and would it be too risky or too much of a reach to go get him? Or what of the possibilities of a trade with Washington for K. Cousins- I thought we should have nabbed him in the draft last year and just missed by a couple of draft selections.

Thanks,
Mike from Orlando, FL

CB: I think at this point it’s hard to judge where Nassib will land, and even after the Senior Bowl, Combine and pro days it’ll be tough to predict where he goes because all it takes is one team to really like him and take him sooner than the so called experts project. That being said most draftniks see him as a second-round prospect. I know Coach Marrone and Coach Hackett have a lot of respect for his game and how he’s developed. However, I don’t think that guarantees they take him in the draft.

As for Kirk Cousins, I think the knee injury suffered by Robert Griffin almost rules out any chance of the Redskins parting ways with Cousins via trade this offseason.

The Bills and every other club in the league has the new Collective Bargaining Agreement to thank for the rapidity with which draft choices in general and specifically first-round picks have signed. It’s less than a month since the 2012 draft and Buffalo’s top pick is already signed along with six others across the NFL. That hasn’t happened in Buffalo in a long time.

Taking a look back as prior Bills first-round picks, I’ve only found two that I can verify signed prior to Gilmore’s May 17th date.

WR Jerry Butler, who was one of two first-round picks in 1979, signed his contract on May 9th, just six days after the NFL draft was held that year (May 3rd).

The only other Bills first-round pick since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger that I’ve found to sign before Gilmore was TE Reuben Gant in 1974. He has the earliest signing date of March 26th, but it comes with an asterisk because back then the draft was held in late January instead of late April.

The most recent early signee was OL Ruben Brown in 1995, who signed his rookie deal on June 20th 17 years ago.

It’s undoubtedly a welcome departure from the past couple of decades of lengthy negotiations and holdouts.

I don’t know what it is, but there’s a good vibe going through this building this week. I’m not promising anything, but I feel good about the Bills getting off the schneid this week against the Bears. On to your questions from AskChris@bills.nfl.net.

1 – Hey Chris ,

With things at One Bills Dr looking as though a corner may have been turned as far as the offense & all of the other changes that have taken place this year as far as — GM , schemes , personnel , & coaching philosophy , how are the players reacting to it all ?? I’ve always heard that in order for a team to be successful they need to buy into what the coach & staff is selling . Although it looks as though Coach Gailey is definitely doing a lot of good things to change the culture of our beloved Bills , how does it look on the inside ??? Do the players seem to recognize that the changes that are being made are for the better & buying what the coach is selling in spite of the teams record to this point ??

As usual thanks for all you do !!
Mr. T from Ft. Myers via Nashville

CB: I’ll just say that this locker room believes in Coach Gailey and his staff. He’s done a good job of maximizing the talents of individual players and units as well. One example individually is Roscoe Parrish and what he’s done as a receiver. A unit example is the offensive line and what they’ve done the past seven weeks in the run game, going from 87 yards rushing per game to over 114 and improving the yards per carry average from 3.6 to 4.5 in that time.

The players can see Gailey and his staff are making this team a better one week by week. And despite all the losing Ryan Fitzpatrick explained it best concerning Gailey’s ability to lead.

“He’s a guy that with us he’s always positive,” said Fitzpatrick. “He’s trying to get us going. He always talks about the talent in the room and what we’ve done this year and what we’ve done successfully. He’s been good. He’s been a guy who keeps us going and I think he’s done a really nice job of that.”

2 - Hi Chris,
Last season when the Eagles signed Michael Vick they said that there was 2 teams that were in talks with his agent and him. Also on the program The OT with Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison, Tony had said that he believed that Vick would sign with the Bills after the one year deal and the team option for a second yr at 5.2 million.

I guess my question to u is, do you believe that in this upcoming offseason that the Bills will try to sign Vick so that we have a proven QB that is only getting better as he is maturing at his position? I would also like to have a QB that is proven and only adds another threat for this team with his legs and he definitely has the arm to play in the conditions that Buffalo presents.
Thanks
Jon in Tampa (former Lockportian)

CB: I don’t disagree that Vick would be an exciting addition, and you have a better idea of what you would be getting since he’s been playing the past two years, but I just don’t see it happening.

I don’t have any evidence to tell you why he wouldn’t be signed. I just can’t see the Bills bringing him in should be become a free agent. In fact it wouldn’t surprise me if the Eagles locked him up long term.

3 – Chris,
I know the Titans were the ones that were awarded Randy Moss, but they were the only team to put in a claim. Why not sign Moss and trade him? Is this something that theoretically would work? My understanding is based on the way teams get dibs on someone like Moss being cut would be worst record first, and then best record last. So for example if Pittsburgh wanted him it would be to their benefit to work out a deal w/ Buffalo and give them a 3rd round pick (or whatever he’s worth) to get him. Most likely any other scenario wouldn’t allow Pittsburgh to get him … theoretically.

CB: Claiming Moss only to trade him would not work because the trade deadline passed in mid-October. I suppose had it been before the league’s trade deadline something like that could potentially happen, but I’m going to have to check to see if that’s even permitted by the NFL.

4 - Chris – Since the Bills picked up Shawne Merriman off waivers do they hold all the rights the Chargers previously did? If he produces as hoped could the Bills control his destiny next year by placing the franchise tag or even the transition tag on him?

Thanks,
BuffaloStu2
Denver, CO

CB: Yes, they do hold all the rights to him. He’s Buffalo’s property now as long as he’s under contract. The Bills inherit his current contract which runs out after this season and pay the pro-rated portion of his salary ($1.7M).

I’m not sure about a franchise or transition tag however, because we don’t know what the rules will be concerning free agents until a new CBA is reached between the NFL and the Players Union. Under the old CBA, yes the franchise and transition tag would be options at Buffalo’s disposal, but that’s all up in the air now.

5 - Hey Chris,

I know Ralph has said QB is the top priority this offseason and that really worries me that we will desperately take whoever is the best QB available at our pick in the draft,whether or not he is necessarily deserving of the pick. Personally I think Andrew Luck is the real deal and would take him first overall no question, but if he stays in school like he’s said he will then we take a QB just to take one?

I think Mallett is a little inconsistent and have had character questions and that Locker is far too inaccurate and raw to cut it in the NFL.

I would say to take a tackle but it doesn’t seem as though there’s an elite tackle at this point. If we can’t take Luck, do you think it would make more sense to take a defensive impact player such as Bowers from Clemson or Fairley from Auburn, maybe even Peterson on LSU, a tackle in the second and try to get Luck or someone like a Matt Barkley whenever they declare? Thanks.

From,
Tom

CB: I think you’re getting way ahead of yourself. I know a lot of Bills fans already have their eyes on the draft for obvious reasons, but until we know who declares early in mid-January I think we’re all just wasting our breath on what the Bills should, would, could do.
That being said I too prefer Luck.

I’m watching Christian Ponder at Florida State more closely of late. I think his shoulder still isn’t right after a severe separation last season, but in time that arm will heal up and there is no questioning this kid’s toughness and leadership. Need to see more of him though.

One other thing, I love the Fairley kid from Auburn. The guy is a beast on that Tigers D-line.

Bills Hall of Famer Thurman Thomas has a soft spot for former Houston Oilers head coach Jerry Glanville.

As he mentioned in his draft day memories of 1988, leading up to the draft Glanville was pushing the Oilers hard to draft Thomas, which would’ve been fine with the Houston native.

“Being a hometown guy every time I see Jerry I thank him for pushing the Oilers to have an opportunity to draft me,” said Thomas.

Thomas remembers all the doubters that were out there that weren’t sure if Thomas’ knee would hold up over the long haul after partially tearing his ACL his junior year. So he appreciates the guys that believed in him before he did anything in the NFL.

Of course the Oilers ultimately passed on Thomas in round one of the 1988 draft, choosing instead to take RB Lorenzo White, one of seven to come off the board before Thomas.

Had Thomas been taken by Houston he likely would’ve had 700 receptions in his career in the Oilers’ run and shoot offense, but Thomas wonders about his rushing totals.

“Yeah I probably would’ve caught a lot more passes in that kind of attack, but I also wouldn’t have 12,000 career rushing yards had I played most of my career there,” said Thomas. “They were throwing the ball 40 or 50 times a game. There’s no way I’d be getting 20 carries a game too.”