Iowa: Up for grabs

DES MOINES, Iowa — Ignore those nationwide polls that show Hillary Rodham Clinton leading the Democratic pack by 20 points or more. Forget the debates and forums that have already taken place. Discount even the jaw-dropping fundraising figures Barack Obama has posted.

Pay attention to Iowa.

Story Continued Below

That, at least, is the message six Democratic hopefuls sent this week as they chomped and grinned and hugged and autographed their way from one end of the state to the other.

With the State Fair wrapping up on Sunday, the same day that Iowa hosts the first Democratic debate on network television, Iowa proved an irresistible draw.

Obama, the Illinois senator, embarked on a five-day tour of the state. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson took to the road for six. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards planned on a full week. And Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd devoted eight whole days to the state with the first presidential contest in the nation. Clinton, the New York senator, and Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware dipped in and out, but more in than out.

The reason, local experts in Democratic politics say, is that Iowans insist on it—and their votes are still completely up for grabs.

“Everything I hear is that it’s still a wide-open race, particularly for Clinton, Obama and Edwards,” said Ron Parker, the director of communications for the Iowa state Senate Democrats.

“Some campaigns have deluded themselves into thinking they have an edge or momentum,” he said, but warned that too many Iowans have not decided whom to vote for in their caucus for any candidate to take victory for granted.

Indeed, almost everyone Iowan who spoke to Politico this week claimed still to have an open mind.

State Sen. Rich Olive is among them. He praised Biden’s Iraq policy, Edwards’ health care plan, the international respect Clinton commands and Obama’s enthusiasm and willingness to work hard, and he called Dodd “the salt of the earth.” (He said he had not spent much time with Richardson. Long-shots Dennis J. Kucinich, the Ohio representative, and Mike Gravel, the former Alaska senator, campaigned in New Hampshire this past week.)

“I’m going to feel bad when I have to endorse one,” Olive said.

And some of those candidates began to turn on each other as Labor Day approached—the time when Iowans traditionally begin to devote more attention to their pivotal role in choosing presidents.

Edwards tried to put Obama on the defensive this week by inviting the Obama to join him in urging Democratic campaign committees to refuse money from lobbyists. Obama deflected the request and touted his own ethics plan instead.

Edwards also took some swipes at Obama—though not by name—during his stump speeches.

“I wish I thought we could change America just by being nice,” he told party activists in Waverley, Iowa. But changes like his health care plan “will not happen by sitting at a table, being nice,” he said.

Obama, for his part, struggled to contrast himself with Clinton without criticizing her too directly. He told the Washington Post he would be a more unifying president than Clinton, while adding that he did not think her divisiveness was entirely her fault.

The Democratic debate taking place in Des Moines on Sunday (to be broadcast on ABC’s “This Week," moderated by George Stephanopoulos) only helped draw the political focus to Iowa.

“This weekend is important, especially to Obama and Edwards,” said political consultant Matt Paul, who has not yet committed to a candidate. “Clinton has done well in the debates so far. One of them needs to make a move.”

Parker advised the candidates to be careful about the way they jostle for advantage.

“Getting a sharp elbow out and hitting another Democrat is not going to play real well with Iowans, especially at this early point.”

But the candidates have a strong incentive to play hardball.

“You don’t have to win Iowa to continue,” state senator Olive said. “But if you’re ahead in the polls and you finish third, that tells you something. And if you do horrible—below third—you’re going to have trouble."