Tuesday, November 8, 2016

More Late September Than Early November - Dry Next 6 Days

58 F. high yesterday in St. Cloud.

44 F. average high on November 8.

61 F. high on November 8, 2015.

November 9, 2003:
Parts of west central and north central Minnesota receive anywhere from
2 to 6 inches of new snow. Canby had the most at 6 inches and Benson
measured 5 inches.November 9, 1977: A foot of snow falls in Western Minnesota. I-94 is tied up.November 9. 1850: The sky darkens at Ft. Snelling due to smoke from prairie fires.

November Boating - Our Jumbo Autumn Hangs On

According
to NOAA, so far 2016 is the second warmest since 1895, nationwide. It
was also the second wettest January through October on record for both
Minnesota and Wisconsin. A treadmill of storms squeezed out copious
rains, especially southern counties.

We get a dry weather break
into much of next week, but both GFS and ECWMF models hint at a
full-latitude storm pulling moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico by late
next week. The result: heavier rain a week from Friday, possibly ending as a little slushy snow up north. Until then: dry, drama-free.

Dust off your golf clubs, maybe take one last cruise on your favorite lake in the coming days. Models hint at 60s today, Thursday, again on Sunday. Remarkable considering the sun is as high in the sky as it was back on February 2. A glancing blow of cooler air arrives Friday with a 1 in 3 chance of the first 32-degree temperature of fall early Saturday at MSP International, where the official readings are taken.

If we avoid a frost the growing season may linger another 2 weeks. Any flowers blooming in your yard? I need to mow my lawn.Consistently Longer Frost-Free Season in Minnesota. Details via Climate Central: "In
the fall, we often expect to wake up to frost-covered windows, but a
warming world is altering the average time when we first see those
mornings occur. The frost-free season, defined as the stretch between
the last 32°F reading in the spring and the first 32°F reading in the
fall, has increased in length over the past 30 years, with both an
earlier last frost in the spring and a later first frost in the fall..."

Trending Warmer Than Average Into Next Week.
The best chance of 60-degree warmth comes today, Thursday and Sunday,
before a slight cooling trend next week. If your yard avoids a frost or
freeze Saturday morning you may be frost-free into next week. Source:
WeatherBell.

Colder By Late November.
Big surprise - the GFS model is flip-flopping back and forth. Yesterday
the 2-week outlook for 500mb winds looked very cold by Thanksgiving; a
touch of December-like air pouring south of the border. The latest
forecast calls for more of a zonal flow, hinting at average or slightly
milder than average. At some point the other shoe will drop but the
timing of when is still uncertain.

Pockets of Exceptional Drought for Southeastern USA. California remains in a serious, long-term drought, but new data from NOAA's Drought Monitor show extreme to exceptional drought for much of Alabama and Georgia - more drought showing up across New England.What To Expect This Winter: NOAA's 2016-2017 Winter Outlook.
La Nina is one of several factors capable of nudging our weather in a
specific direction this winter. Odds are it won't be as mild as last
winter; beyond that the crystal ball gets murky in a hurry. Here's an
excerpt of a good explainer from Mike Halpert at NOAA's Climate.gov: "...So
while the southern (and especially southeastern) part of the U. S. is
often wetter and colder than average during El Niño winters, La Niña
generally favors below-average precipitation and above-average
temperatures in those same regions. We also often see opposite patterns
across the northern part of the nation, with warmer and drier conditions
during El Niño winters and colder and wetter conditions during La Niña
years. Before discussing the actual winter outlook, I want to remind
readers that these are probabilities (% chance) for below, near, or
above average seasonal climate outcomes with the maps showing only the
most likely temperature or precipitation outcome (footnote 1). Because
the probabilities shown are less than 100%, it means there is no
guarantee you will see temperature or precipitation departures that
match the color on the map..."

Map credit: "Typical
impacts of La Niña on U.S. winter temperature and precipitation. Such
impacts have been associated with past episodes, but all impacts aren't
seen with every episode." NOAA Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin.Hurricane Intensity Is Not Exaggerated To Scare People, And Here's How We Know.
When data and evidence gets in the way some resort to conspiracy
theories. Besides, it makes for good click-bait. Hurricane expert Brian
McNoldy responds to Matt Drudge at Capital Weather Gang: "Hurricane
Matthew brushed the East Coast as a Category 4 in early October. It
scoured the Florida coast with a storm surge that washed out roads and
flooded homes and businesses. It dumped over a foot of rain on the
Carolinas and triggered deadly flooding. And before all of this, Matthew
devastated Haiti and killed at least 600 people — it’s possible we’ll never know
the final death toll. But the hurricane’s deadly encounter with Haiti
and multibillion-dollar brush with the East Coast wasn’t bad enough for
some people — mainly, Matt Drudge, a political commentator and news
aggregator, who tweeted skepticism about Matthew’s actual intensity as
it barreled toward Florida. Perhaps, he suggested, the National
Hurricane Center was overhyping the storm’s maximum winds..." (Hurricane Matthew file photo: NOAA).

Hurricane Sandy Was a 260 Year Storm - Here's What That Means.
For the record 2012's Superstorm Sandy wasn't even (technically) a
warm-core hurricane when it struck New Jersey. But the storm was huge,
it carved out an impressive storm surge that hit at astronomical high
tide during a full moon. Here's an excerpt from Yahoo Finance: "... The
total damage to New York City was worth $19 billion and to New Jersey
$29 billion. Now, the big question is: How likely is it that a
Sandy-level storm will happen again in our lifetimes? In the past,
studies have pegged Sandy as anywhere from a 100-year storm to a 1,500
year storm. That means that in any given year there's a 1/100 to 1/1,500
chance of a storm causing Sandy-level flooding. A new paper accepted
for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research
October 21 offers a more precise estimate: Sandy was a 260-year storm,
based on current ocean conditions. That includes tropical cyclones like
Sandy as well as winter storms like northeasters, lead author Philip
Orton, who studies ocean physics at the Stevens Institute of Technology,
told Business Insider..." (Superstorm Sandy file image: NASA).

Flood of Weather Warning Terms Fuels Confusion. Is there a smart way for NOAA to streamline watches, advisories and warnings? USA TODAY reports: "...One
simple reason for the confusion is that both watch and warning start
with the letters "wa," while another is that advisory "doesn't have any
specific connotation," Jacks said. Not only are the three levels
befuddling, there are also too many of them: In all, the weather service
transmits a whopping 122 different watches, warnings and advisories,
all the way from Air Quality Alert to Winter Weather Advisory. Some of
the more obscure ones include Ashfall Warning, Freezing Spray
Advisory and Lakeshore Flood Watch..."

Massive Wedge Tornado That Hit Rome November 6.
This Kansas-size tornado left 2 people dead; the flashes high tension
lines being brought down by winds that may have approached 150 mph. Click here to see the video from MSN.com.Oklahoma Storm Shelter For School Said To Withstand EF-5 Tornado. I wonder if any man-made structure can be constructed to be "tornado-proof"? I found this story from WTVY-TV to be interesting; here's a clip: "...The
superintendent hopes to build more of these, one for each elementary
school. The building is said to be able to withstand an F-5 tornado. It
has a monolithic dome, a round roof made of reinforced steel and layer
after layer of concrete, making it one of the safest places to be during
a natural disaster..."

Water Temperatures in Gulf Could Give Advance Warning of Summer Tornado Activity. A signal for the intensity of future outbreaks? Perhaps. Here's an excerpt from NOAA's Climate.gov: "Using
a combination of observations and models, NOAA-funded scientists have
found a small but significant “advanced warning” signal for heightened
summer tornado activity in the U.S.: warmer-than-average water
temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. The knowledge has the potential to
provide emergency response agencies, communities, and individuals with
an early head’s up that an upcoming severe weather season may be
unusually active. These maps show the tornado-Gulf of Mexico connection
that researchers found when they divided 30 years of data (1981-2011)
into two bins: summers when the Gulf of Mexico was cooler-than-average
and summers when it was warmer-than-average..."

What Happened To Our Record Lows? Bob Henson takes a look at the trends at WunderBlog: "... In
the 1970s, the U.S. saw roughly 5 daily record lows for every 4 daily
record highs. That ratio flipped in the 1980s, which produced about 6
highs for every 5 lows. By the 2000s, we were getting nearly twice as
many daily record highs as lows (350,181 to 187,323). For the 2010s thus
far, the ratio has climbed even higher: we’ve had about 2.2 times as
many record highs as record lows. This is especially remarkable given
that the years 2013 and 2014 both managed to buck the trend, scoring
more daily record lows than highs. This year through October 25, the
ratio is more than 5 to 1. That’s higher than in any full year on
record. Hiding in plain sight in the 2016 data is something even more
astounding. Walton’s and NCEI’s numbers through October 25 show that this year has produced 20,847 U.S. daily record highs but a mere 3920 record lows..."

New Weather Satellite Set to "Revolutionize" The U.S. Weather Forecast.
That may be a bit strong, but there's little doubt that GOES-R is
another big step forward, giving us a much more powerful,
high-resolution eye in the sky. Details via Yahoo Finance: "...NASA
is currently preparing the launch pad at Cape Canaveral to send the
first satellite, known as GOES-R, into orbit on November 16 at 4:42 p.m.
ET. According to NOAA, the new weather station will contribute to more
accurate weather forecasts and better predictions of severe storms.
"Without a doubt, GOES-R will revolutionize weather forecasting as we
know it," Stephen Volz, assistant administrator for NOAA's Satellite and
Information Service, told reporters earlier this month. "For weather
forecasters, GOES-R is like going from black and white television to
super-high-definition TV, and for the American public GOES-R will mean
faster, more accurate weather forecasting and warning..." (Artist sketch of GOES-R: Lockheed Martin).

Lockheed Satellite System Aids Tornado, Sun Storm Warnings. More perspective courtesy of The San Francisco Chronicle: "...The
launch is scheduled for Nov. 19 from Cape Canaveral. The total cost of
the program, including four satellites and associated ground systems, is
$10.83 billion, including 30 years of operations. Lockheed Martin will
receive a portion of this total for its building and testing the
satellites plus three instruments on each spacecraft. The satellites
represent an important advance in forecasting tornadoes and severe
weather, said Steve Goodman, the ocean and atmospheric agency’s chief
scientist for the satellites. “This is the first major upgrade in 22
years,” Goodman said..."

Photo credit: "Technician Clinton Maldoon checks on the Geostationary Lightning Mapper at Lockheed’s Advanced Technology Center." Santiago Mejia, The Chronicle.Sunshine Matters A Lot to Mental Health; Temperature, Pollution, Rain Not So Much. Almost time to put your therapist on speed-dial. Here's a fascinating nugget, courtesy of EurekAlert! Science News: "...That's
one of the surprising pieces of our research," said Mark Beecher,
clinical professor and licensed psychologist in BYU Counseling and
Psychological Services. "On a rainy day, or a more polluted day, people
assume that they'd have more distress. But we didn't see that. We looked
at solar irradiance, or the amount of sunlight that actually hits the
ground. We tried to take into account cloudy days, rainy days, pollution
. . . but they washed out. The one thing that was really significant
was the amount of time between sunrise and sunset."Therapists should be
aware that winter months will be a time of high demand for their
services. With fewer sun time hours, clients will be particularly
vulnerable to emotional distress. Preventative measures should be
implemented on a case-by-case basis...."Does The Switch to Daylight Saving Time Increase Risk of Depression? Here's an excerpt of an interesting article focusing on new studies, courtesy of The Washington Post: "...One
possible explanation is that the sudden advancement of sunset from 6
p.m. to 5 p.m . . . which in Denmark marks the coming of a long period
of very short days, has a negative psychological impact on individuals
prone to depression, and pushes them over the threshold to develop
manifest depression,” the authors write. We know, for instance, that
long days and ample sunshine are protective against depressive symptoms. The
shift to standard time essentially steals an hour of daylight from the
evening, when most of us are awake, and tacks it on to the early morning
hours, when many of us are not. The net effect is that many of us lose
an hour of daylight..."

Top Weather Phobias Explored: Millions of Americans Experience These Weather Fears.
"Antlophobia" is fear of floods. A tropical storm that flooded my
boyhood home in Pennsylvania in 1972 got me interested in meteorology.
What are you scared of? I stumbled upon this curious story at accuweather.com: "...According
to a 2014 study published in the American Meteorological Society
Journal, approximately one in 10 Americans may suffer from some degree
of severe weather fear. Researchers from Ball State University and the
University of Kansas said study participants reported feelings of
anxiety and helplessness, increased heart pounding and the need to
change their schedules when faced with a severe weather event. The most
common behavior surrounding these weather events was constant monitoring
of television, radio, internet or weather applications, according to
researchers. They interviewed almost 300 people in 43 states. The study
reported: "...When not debilitating, some fear can be a substantial
motivator to encourage individuals to take action against the threat,
such as seeking shelter..."

Incoming! How NASA and FEMA Would Respond to an Asteroid Threat. That's right - don't sweat the thundershowers! Fox News has an interesting, vaguely terrifying story - here's an excerpt that left me wanting to check my fantasy football stats: "...NASA
and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) came together Oct.
25 to plan a response to such a hypothetical event. In a "tabletop
exercise," a kind of ongoing simulation, the two agencies tested how
they would work together to evaluate the threat, prevent panic and
protect as many people as possible from the deadly collision. "It's not a
matter of if, but when, we will deal with such a situation," Thomas
Zurbuchen, NASA's Science Mission Directorate's new associate administrator, said in a statement..."

Key Navy Base At Risk From Rising Seas: Mabus.
With a son in the Navy I can assure you that these professionals take
rising seas seriously; operations are already being impacted. Here's the
intro to a story at military.com: "Navy Secretary Ray Mabus told an audience Monday that Naval Station Norfolk, Virginia,
the largest naval base in the world and a key East Coast center of
operations for the service, could be endangered in coming decades by
rising seas due to climate change if steps are not taken to reverse
current trends. Mabus, who has frequently spoken about his concerns
regarding climate change and associated threats to national security
during his seven-year tenure as secretary of the Navy, said other bases
also might be at risk from projected rising seas..."

Why Scientists Are So Worried About Sea Level Rise in the Second Half of This Century. The water is rising - that's no a climate model, but based on observations, worldwide. Here's an excerpt at The Washington Post: "...But the new research
just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
notes that if we stay on a current, high-emissions pathway and do not
achieve the cuts that the Paris agreement seeks to institutionalize,
then we could hit 2 degrees Celsius by 2040 or so. For the planet’s sea
level, this would mean over a half-foot rise averaged around the globe,
in comparison with average sea levels from 1986 to 2005. The sea-level
increase, however, would be far worse in certain places, such as the
U.S. East Coast, where it could be over a foot..."

Photo credit: Andrew Demp, Yale.

Air Pollution Emergency for New Delhi, India. Here are harrowing details from Yale Environment 360: "Indian
officials declared an emergency in New Delhi over the weekend as the
capital city entered its second week with air pollution levels as high
as 30 times above World Health Organization guidelines, several news outlets reported.
Construction sites have been closed, operations at a coal-fired power
station halted, diesel generators stopped, and officials are preparing
to reinstate traffic restrictions, all to reduce smog levels across the
city, which have reached their highest levels in 20 years. Officials say
field burning on nearby farmland and fireworks from the recent Diwali
festival helped worsen the smog conditions. Arvind Kejriwal, chief
minister of Delhi, advised people to “stay home as much as they can
[and] work from home,” The Guardian reported.
Indian business groups said 5 to 10 percent of the workforce in the
city and surrounding areas had called in sick over the past week..."

Photo credit: REUTERS/Adnan Abid.

At Least 74,000 Americans Live Near Oil and Gas Wells on Public Lands. Check out the state-level maps to assess your level of risk in this article at Yale Environment 360: "A new online tool
mapping active oil and gas wells on U.S. public lands shows that at
least 74,000 people in six states live within a half-mile of drilling
sites. That close proximity puts these people at increased risk of
cancer, heart disease, and respiratory problems from natural gas leaking
from the wells, said the Wilderness Society, which together with
Earthworks helped create the tool. In Wyoming, for example, 15,869 oil and gas facilities
operate on public land, and some 4,000 people live within a half-mile
of them — the range that airborne pollutants from wells, such as
benzene, can easily travel. The mapping tool is being released at a time
when scientists, environmental groups, and policymakers are ramping up
calls to reduce and regulate natural gas leaks from drilling and storage sites..."

Red Lake Band of Minnesota Plans For All-Solar Electric Generation.
Why? Because it'll help clean up the air AND save them money over the
long haul - there's a significant ROI. Here's more information from The Star Tribune: "The
Red Lake Band of Chippewa in northern Minnesota intends to build enough
solar energy capability on tribal lands over the next several years to
free itself from electricity generated from fossil fuels. And, thanks to
outside investors who can tap a variety of tax credits, depreciation
and deductions, it should cost the tribe very little to eventually
become owners of the solar arrays, power-storage units and related
equipment..." (File photo: Utility Dive).

Oil Industry's New Threat? The Global Growth of Electric Cars. Odds are our kids and grandkids won't think twice about driving an electric vehicle. Here's an excerpt from The New York Times: "...Could
the world’s transportation system be on the verge of a disruption, one
that could slow the growth of oil demand and eventually reverse it? That
question is not just profound, it is urgent. Nations have pledged to
fight global warming,
which means sharply paring emissions of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases by midcentury, just over three decades away. If that is
to be achieved, some studies suggest, there will be no place for cars
burning gasoline or diesel. They will have to run on electricity, or
possibly another alternative fuel, and the electric system itself will
have to become much cleaner..."

Climate Stories. Because weather and climate are flip-sides of the same coin.

Caring for Creation: Community Conversation and Book Release November 15 at Minnehaha Academy.
If you're interested in this topic (and most everyone should be) I hope
you'll consider coming out next Tuesday evening, November 15, to Minnehaha Academy to hear co-author of "Caring for Creation"
Mitch Hescox and me discuss why climate awareness and a push toward
clean energy are essential, and why people of faith should pay
attention: "Minnehaha Academy Welcomes Meteorologist Paul Douglas
and Evangelical Environmental Network Director Mitch Hescox for a
Compelling Climate Change Conversation and Book Release Event. Join us
for this not-to-be-missed community conversation and book release event
about climate change and the Biblical call for Christians to care about
the earth.

In this free evening conversation, you’ll learn:- Why Christians should lead the charge for caring for God’s creation.- How climate change goes beyond politics and affects the health, economy, and stability of future generations.- Tips to help your family and those around you care for the earth..."

How Global Warming Could Actually Make Winters Colder For Some People.
There is some (early) scientific evidence that a rapidly warming arctic
may be impacting jet stream wind speeds, making for a "wavier" pattern
capable of pulling arctic air south for extended periods of time.
Counterintuitive? Absolutely. Here's an excerpt from Christan Science Monitor: "...Current
research suggests that a “wavier” jet stream may correlate to severe
climates south of the Arctic, which may linger for several weeks at a
time. When the jet stream’s route is more direct from west to east,
typical winter weather seems to follow. “We’ve always had years with
wavy and not so wavy jet stream winds, but in the last one to two
decades the warming Arctic could well have been amplifying the effects
of the wavy patterns,” co-author Edward Hanna, a professor of climate
change at the University of Sheffield, said in a press release. Over the
past few decades, different regions around the world have warmed at
different rates. In the Arctic region, temperatures are rising faster
than they are at mid-latitudes. As the temperature contrast between
those two regions becomes smaller, the jet stream becomes weaker..." (High-amplitude jet stream image: NASA)

(Un)Natural Disasters: Communicating Linkages Between Extreme Events and Climate Change. Here's an article (PDF) that drills down into "attribution"; which specific weather events bear thumbprints of a more volatile climate: "...While
scientists have known for decades that changes in some classes of
extreme weather would result from climate change, the science of
attributing individual extreme eventns to global warming has only
advanced significantly in recent years to cover a greater number of
extremes and achieve a greater speed of scientific analysis.
Unfortunately, the communication of this science outside the extreme
event research community has, with a few notable exceptions, not fully
reflected these advances. The media, politicians and some scientists
outside this area of research still often claim that "we can't attribute
any individual event to climate change." This may have been true in the
1990s, but it is no longer the case..."

Pentagon Report: U.S. Military Considers Climate Change a "Threat Multiplier" That Could Exacerbate Terrorism. Here's an excerpt from Newsweek: "A
report released Monday indicates the Department of Defense has
dramatically shifted its views towards climate change, and has already
begun to treat the phenomenon as a significant threat to national
security. Climate change, the Pentagon writes, requires immediate action
on the part of the U.S. Military. The report
is a “roadmap” of the Department’s future needs and actions to
effectively respond to climate change, including anticipating that
climate change may require more frequent military intervention within
the country to respond to natural disasters, as well as internationally
to respond to “extremist ideologies” that may arise in regions where
governments are destabilized due to climate-related stressors..."