Friday, December 9, 2011

If there were not Chapo, we would have to invent him (with apologies to Wilde)

Following in the footsteps of Eduardo Gutiérrez Guerrero [1], I am going to state the obvious: to focus on arresting the leaders of TCOs rather than systematically dismantling the organization itself will only lead to the fracturing of the organization and increased violence as others try to fill the leadership void (the point proven by charts provided by Gutiérrez). If President Calderón were truly sincere about “combating” organized crime, rather than deploying soldiers in the streets he would focus the state’s resources in competent investigations of ALL those involved, seizing all assets, and tracking down the organizations, businessmen and politicians who collaborate with the narcos as anywhere from 40 to 60 billion dollars a year of illicit cash washes through Mexico each year (or half a trillion since Calderón declared war). With a pool of 7 million “ninis” (youths who neither work nor study and who have little hope to do so) from which to draw, organized criminal groups can easily afford a war of attrition. TCOs offer the ninis what the government cannot and the elites will not, who see them as nothing more than castoff proles or proletarians [2].

The Calderón administration trumpets Ciudad Juaréz as a success with its unenlightened strategy but, although the death rate has fallen, it is not as precipitous as claimed since the administration tends to fiddle with statistics. In this case it is by using data from the highest month of casualties (October 2010 with an average of 11 per day) to compare it to one of the lowest months (April 2011 with an average closer to 6 per day not the 4 stated by Alejandro Poire [3]) claiming a 60% drop when in fact within this time-frame it was closer to 30%--which is not insignificant, and part of a trend of declining deaths for 2011, but certainly not the 60% claimed by the glib Poire (at the time he served as the federal security spokesperson but is now serving as the Interior Minister, the second highest post next to that of President). Both October of 2010 and April of 2011 were anomalies [4], and a more honest accounting would use the average number of people killed in 2010 (which was 9 per day) and compare this with the first four months of 2011 (including April) which has an average of 7 per day, with January and February both surpassing 200 deaths each (January - 222 and February - 231) [5].

But Ciudad Júarez is not the only city in Mexico experiencing hyper-violence as, under this strategy that has the top leaders of TCOs being killed or captured by the war-machine, violence has spread undeterred throughout the country, especially through the pacific states [6]. The latest example is Sinaloa where, for the last few months now, things have been percolating in and around the cities of Culiacán, Mazatlán and Los Mochis (see pie chart below): Although the violence in Sinaloa has been off of the radar of the major media outlets the lid blew off last week on November 23 with a host of burned bodies, including police officers, turning up in Culiacán, 16 of them publicly charred in 2 burning vehicles as a brazen warning [7]. The Governor of the State, Mario López Valdez, immediately stated that this was between the narcos [8] but a quick answer like this seems a tad facile considering that 32 police commanders in Ahome were recently dismissed [9] and in Tijuana 15 million of Chapo’s money seized [10]. Thus, a different supposition of what is occurring is that Chapo is “cleaning house” for this egregious loss, rather than the imminent attack of the Zetas into Sinaloa territory (a tit-for-tat response to attacks upon the Zetas in Veracruz [11]). Granted, the reprisal theory does seem to be the case with the 20 bodies discovered in Guadalajara, Jalisco the next day [12]...but anybody with a marker and some cardboard can make a “narcomensaje”.

Be that as it may, Calderón´s rhetoric, of making headway against organized crime, does not seem to support the facts as the killers continue to kill en mass, with impunity. Force vs Force as a means to resolve domestic issues is not working, that is, using military weapons and tactics to combat social issues. Trying to address social conditions in terms of war-making and using the army as a domestic police service to combat crime cannot be successful in any sense. Crime and criminals are a result of social phenomena--there is no army to defeat, no leaders who once captured cannot be replaced (at best there is the fracturing of the organization into smaller pieces which will jockey, fight, and coordinate and adapt to continually fill the demands of a voracious drug market). What the war-making has done is make the illicit markets more efficient, the organizations more deadly and created a highly populated “assassin profession” employing thousands of young men (and even women and children).

But, cheered on by the US, Mexico refuses to deter from its ill-trodden path and, despite the fact that the narcos now kill by the truckload, still refuses to change strategy...increasing army patrols of the streets has not prevented assassins from driving around with trucks loaded with dead bodies, dumping them on major thoroughfares and/or lighting them on fire. What is needed is not bullets but competent investigations, rule of law, and a working justice system. Instead of deploying soldiers, Calderón should be “deploying” forensic accountants and investigators, "boring" suits and ties, rather than "sexy" guns and bullets, if he truly wants to wage an effective campaign against organized crime and make the country safer.

Calderon has engaged in a 5 year social experiment, of using the army to combat social problems, rather than focusing on the policing system. The results are in and it is clearly evident that it is not effective. After five years, billions of dollars, international support and assistance, Mexico now suffers from a contagion that has spread from the border to its east and west coasts with police officers kidnapped and killed [13], police forces resigning or fleeing from the towns that they are supposed to protect and serve [14], of cities having to fire their police commanders because of corruption and ties to the narcos, and of executions all over the country that continues to rise each year including those who dare speak out [15].

Now, the question many are asking is if this is a war, should Calderón not be held accountable? [16].

1 comment:

The results are in and it is clearly evident that it is not effective. After five years, billions of dollars, international support and assistance, Mexico now suffers from a contagion that has spread from the border to its east and west coasts

Yes, the results are in and Mexico suffers from the same brain-dead drunken self-righteous hypocritical mentality the truth-and-science-haters who run our country do; they love money and the appearance of righteousness rather than God.