I’ve predicted that a long period of deflation in the Western world would end with a Fed taper, rate hikes and quantitative tightening.
That’s clearly in play now, and the deregulation of America’s thousands of small banks is perhaps the most exciting event taking place on this new “inflationary frontier”. Because of these powerful monetary trends, I’ve predicted big problems ahead for Wall Street and somewhat better times for Main Street.
Having said, that, I think investors would be making aWednesday, December 13, 2017

We live in inflationary times. Some people might consider this statement controversial. This is because these days inflation is widely understood as a rise in the consumer price index (CPI) of more than 2 percent per year. However, there are convincing reasons to question this viewpoint. On the one hand, the CPI does not include “assets” such as, for instance, stocks, housing, real estate, etc. As a result, the price developments of these goods are not accounted for by the changes in the CPI.OnWednesday, December 13, 2017

Dictatorship (noun): Definition #3: absolute power or authority (Websters); Def. #2: absolute, imperious or overbearing power or control (Random House);Def. #3: Absolute or despotic control or power (American Heritage);Def. #3: Absolute or supreme power or authority (Collins English Dictionary);Def. #1: A type of government where absolute sovereignty is allotted to an individual or small clique (Wikipedia).“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battleSunday, December 10, 2017

(This item originally appeared at Forbes.com on November 29, 2017.)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2017/11/29/its-the-economy-stupid-time-to-get-tax-reform-done/#3129662d404d
As we get into the final rounds of the legislative process for tax reform, it is important to keep an eye on exactly what we are trying to accomplish, and why.
At base it is this: “It’s the economy, stupid.” A healthy economy solves a myriad of problems, from employment, to wages, to welfare, to healthcare, to peSunday, December 10, 2017

Let's investigate what happened after the last 3 major tax reforms. Another "reform" is on deck.I picked up this idea from Holger Zschaepitz, @Schuldensuehner, who made the following Tweet, posting a chart from Bloomberg.
In the following chart, I add a key piece of legislation that someone inadvertently overlooked.
Tax Reform vs US Dollar 1986-Present
Key Dates
October 22, 1986: Tax Reform Act of 1986
June 7, 2001: Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001
May 26, 2003: Jobs Wednesday, December 6, 2017

The bubble in sovereign bonds is looking dangerously close to popping.
And ironically, what could burst it is the very thing Central Banks have been pursuing aggressively for the last 9 years: inflation.
As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble, Treasury yields adjust to account for inflation. The relationship is not perfect as bonds are also priced based on economic activity. However, the fact remains, if the rate of inflation spikes, Treasury yields rise as well to account forTuesday, December 5, 2017

Are tax cuts the final carrot in the free money episode we have witnessed over the last eight years? Sven Henrich at the NorthmanTrader has an excellent article on The Carrot Top.
Henrich notes we have had 13 straight months of up in the global equity markets. However, central banking liquidity game has peaked and is dropping off:
​
On Thursday, the Dow blasted over 300 points higher on news the Senate would pass a tax cut.
Will it create any jobs? I rather doubt it and so does any thinking inTuesday, December 5, 2017

So the perfect 'asset' for this bubble in everything...
BITCOIN blew by another milestone, writes Bill Bonner in his Diary of a Rogue Economist.
Last week, the world's first cryptocurrency hit a new record above $10,000.
It started off the year trading at just $997.
"I can't believe what happened," said a friend.
"I bought $1000 worth in 2012. Bitcoin was trading at about $8 at the time. Then one of the big cryptocurrencMonday, December 4, 2017

I hate to break it to you, but chances are you're just not prepared for what’s coming. Not even close.
Don't take it personally. I'm simply playing the odds.
After spending more than a decade warning people all over the world about the futility of pursuing infinite exponential economic growth on a finite planet, I can tell you this: very few are even aware of the nature of our predicament.
An even smaller subset is either physically or financially ready for the sort of future barreling down on Monday, December 4, 2017

The
junior gold miners’ stocks have spent months grinding sideways near
lows, sapping confidence and breeding widespread bearishness. The
entire precious-metals sector has been left for dead, eclipsed by
the dazzling Trumphoria stock-market rally. But traders need to
keep their eyes on the fundamental ball so herd sentiment doesn’t
mislead them. The juniors recently reported Q3 earnings, and
enjoyed strong results.
Four
times a year publicly-traded companiesFriday, December 1, 2017

Charlie Rose skulked offstage like a punch-drunk palooka with barely a whimper, and Matt Lauer offered up the now laughably pro forma press release of bathetic apology and contrition — no doubt micro-managed by his attorneys. But the hit on Garrison Keilor by his old friend Minnesota Public Radio seemed like a new low in the whipping-post politics of the moment.
Unlike the cases of Rose, Lauer, Louis CK, Harvey Weinstein, and Kevin Spacey, there seemed next to nothing in the case against Keilor.Friday, December 1, 2017

Gold is instantly and optically recognizable as money. You don’t have
to explain it. Bitcoin and Special Drawing Rights (SDR), like a bad
joke, have to be explained. Many “cryptologists” from the start gave up
trying to explain Bitcoin and just sell it as virtual gold, which is de
facto fake gold. – Dan Popescu, investment consultant
Numerous inconvenient truths are conveniently ignored by
Bitcoin/cryptocurrency promoters. Not the least of which is that the
fact that the original conceptThursday, November 30, 2017

The big picture for gold continues to strengthen.
In 2016 gold began the year at about $1100, soared $300 an ounce to about $1400, but then it gave back about $250, and ended the year at about $1150 with only a $50 gain.
That price action fit perfectly with my 2014 – 2017 theme of “rough sideways action, initially with a downside bias that develops into an upside bias”.
The year 2018 should see solid Chindian demand, a reversal in US money velocity, and a peak in mine supply. That should pushWednesday, November 29, 2017

What is absolutely certain is that global wealth will be totally decimated in the next 4-8 years. It doesn’t matter if you are very rich or “just own a house” with some equity left. Most of it will come down in value by 75-95% in the next few years as the debt and asset bubbles implode.
But what very few people realise or plan for, is the confiscation of wealth that will take place in coming years. There will be confiscation on many levels.
With times deteriorating, governments will be thrown ouThursday, November 23, 2017

"The current state of credit card delinquency flows can be an early indicator of futuretrends and we will closely monitor the degree to which this uptick is predictive offurther consumer distress.” – New York Fed official in reference to rising delinquency rate of credit cards.
The
recent sell-off in junk bonds likely reflects a growing uneasiness in
the market with credit risk, where “credit risk” is defined as the
probability that a borrower will be able to make debt payments. This
past weThursday, November 23, 2017

The recent spate of back-to-back hurricanes in the US is expected to compound the economic damage of an already over-extended debt. As the stock market braces for a correction, traders are inclined to sell out of riskier stock markets and take refuge in safe havens like gold.
Although it will take months for the impact of the hurricane season to be apparent, investors are already losing appetite for risk and investing in secure assets as gold. This was evident from the figures leading up to the Wednesday, November 22, 2017