Canadian housing market to moderate in 2019 but growth to continue in Ontario and Toronto

By Wayne Karl

Canada’s housing market should see a moderation in both housing starts and sales, while home prices are expected to reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and population growth. This forecast for 2019 and 2020 is drawn from the 2018 Housing Market Outlookfrom the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook

Nationally, CMHC’s outlook for 2019 projects total housing starts to edge down and range between 193,700 to 204,500, with the downward trend expected for both single and multi-unit starts. MLS sales are expected to be between 478,400 and 497,400 units annually while MLS prices should lie between $501,400 and $521,600.

“Our key takeaway from this year’s outlook is moderation in Canada’s housing markets for 2019 into 2020,” says Bob Dugan, chief economist, CMHC. “Housing starts are expected to decline from the higher levels we’ve seen recently. We expect resales in 2019 and 2020 to remain below recent peaks while prices should reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and populations growth.”

Ontario recovery

After dampened market activity in 2018, existing home sales and housing starts in Ontario, particularly in single-family homes, will post a partial recovery in 2019. Buyers are expected to re-enter the market on the strength of stronger than expected job growth and in-migration, before the downward trend in starts and sales resumes in 2020.

Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook

GTA growth

With balanced conditions prevailing in the GTA, CMHC expects moderate sales growth and home prices growing in line with inflation. The rising costs of homeownership will result in strong rental demand, while new supply will add some upward pressure on vacancy rates. Toronto buyers should see more housing choices as builders concentrate their efforts on new highrise projects.

OTHER REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

BRITISH COLUMBIAHousing starts activity and MLS sales in BC should moderate, as economic and population growth slows while MLS average prices are expected to see a flatter growth profile through 2020.

VancouverOver the next two years, Metro Vancouver’s resale market will see lower sales, higher inventories of homes for sale and lower home prices compared with recent market highs. Through 2018, demand and home prices softened across all market segments and local geographies.

PRAIRIESBuyers’ market conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan should gradually shift to a balanced market with gradual improvement in economic and demographic fundamentals. Balanced market conditions in Manitoba are expected to continue.

CalgaryVarious factors will push and pull the demand for housing in Calgary in 2019 and 2020. Calgary’s economy will experience stronger growth in population and employment. This will help support demand and lift sales in 2019 and 2020. However, the average MLS price will continue to face downward pressure but is expected to stabilize in 2019 and modestly rise in 2020.

QUEBECHousing starts and sales of existing homes will both be sustained, however, slower economic growth and rising borrowing costs will moderate activity through 2020. Starts will continue to be dominated by the apartment market segment, while demand for resale single-detached homes will remain relatively strong.

MontrealIn 2018 and 2019, rental housing demand will increase slightly faster than supply in Montreal, which will put some downward pressure on the vacancy rate. Demand will be supported by rising net migration over the forecast horizon.

ATLANTIC CANADAThe Atlantic region will see sustained activity, notably in Nova Scotia, where existing home sales and average prices should trend higher while rental demand will drive growth in apartment construction.

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Travel: The Laurentians

An area of tangible dualities

By Kate Robertson

Located north of Montreal, Les Laurentides is a region crossed by the rounded Laurentian Mountains. The area features vast forests, more than 9,000 lakes and 100 fresh-flowing rivers, as well as thousands of kilometres of crosscountry skiing trails.

Photography, courtesy of Tourisme Laurentides

Naturally Beautiful

Mont Tremblant National Park, the largest in Quebec at 1,500 square kilometres, is a canoeing and hiking paradise. Guided activities are available through Kanatha-Aki (which means Guardian of the Boundless Earth, in Algonquin) for horseback riding, fishing and visiting the wood bison – the largest land mammal in North America. This Quebec reserve is the only one that is dedicated to protecting these endangered animals. If reserving with Kanatha-Aki, be sure to pre-book a cheese fondue. After spending the night in a rustic cabin or teepee, there’s nothing quite like dipping chunks of fresh baguette into the gooey goodness of melted cheese, while sitting in front of the wood stove in the open-beam lodge.

Wood bison at Kanatha-Aki. Photography, Kate Robertson

Originally built in 1936, the Mont Gabriel Hotel & Spa is located on top of a mountain. On a clear day, you can see the Montreal Olympic Stadium from your room, and golf enthusiasts will enjoy the picturesque, 18-hole, on-site course.

Foodies Unite

The Chenin du Terroir is a 226-kilometre food trail that takes you along country backroads with many enticing stops along the way. Make sure to stop at Tarterie du Verger de la Musique for freshly baked pies and their signature apple bread. This sixth-generation, family-operated business has patented the recipe for their gourmet bread, which includes a full pound of apples in each loaf. During apple season, arrive early to score some of this chewy, cinnamon-y delicacy, as they often sell out of the more-than 500 loaves that they bake per day.

Down the road from the bakery is Vignoble Riviere du Chene. Here you can take a tour, and learn about the typicality of the terroir and grape varietals, as well as the responsible farming techniques and winemaking methods that they use. Tours run from May until the end of October, but wine tasting is available year-round. A soft, fruity rosé named after their daughter, Gabrielle, just might be the perfect pairing to go along with the apple bread, and other tasty treats from the food trail, for an impromptu picnic.

Vignoble Riviere du Chene. Photography, Kate Robertson

Nominated as one of the best beekeeping farms in the world and recognized across North America for the diversity, and quality, of their products, Intermiel manages 5,000 beehives. The farm also has a 600-tree apple orchard, and 16,000 maple trees that are tapped for syrup each spring. The beekeeping tour is fascinating. Did you know that bees cover a radius of six kilometres to get their pollen? Also, the queen bee lives for five years because she eats royal jelly, but the worker bees only have a lifespan of 45 days. Check out the unique merchandise made from honey and wax that they have available in their store, as well as artisanal alcohol products, which include house-made mead, ciders and brandies – all prepared from the the farm’s own ingredients.

Mont Tremblant. Photography, courtesy of Tourisme Laurentides

Yin and Yang

Known world-wide for its famous ski resort, the village of Mont Tremblant is the second oldest village in North America. The buildings and cobblestone, pedestrian-only streets are reminiscent of quaint, European styling.

The best of all worlds can be experienced here. If you want an outdoor adventure getaway, you can enjoy the beauty of the area by hiking or biking. D-Tours offers e-fat biking, which are electrically assisted bikes with fat tires. The extra boost is most welcome when navigating the hilly terrain. Take in the stunning panorama with a gondola ride, or enjoy the challenges of some breathtaking golf courses.

Village of Mont Tremblant. Photography, courtesy of Tourisme Laurentides

For a quieter, more-relaxed holiday, the rustic, Nordic-style Scandinave Spa is located in a wilderness setting. As with traditional thermal spas, there are hydrotherapy baths with hot and cold installations, steam and hot sauna options, as well as relaxation areas. If you dare, you can take a dip in the Diable River, where the temperature is around 12 degrees (colder in the winter). After, wrap up in a large blanket and cosy up in front of the fire pit. Reconnect with your inner self, as the entire spa is a silent zone.

Scandinave Spa. Photography, courtesy of Tourisme Laurentides

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Cosentino is a global, family-owned company that produces and distributes high value innovative surfaces for the world of architecture and design, leaders in their respective segments such as Silestone® Quartz surfaces and Dekton® Ultracompact surfaces. Technologically advanced surfaces that create unique designs for the home and public spaces.

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With over 90 years of experience, BLANCO is the leading kitchen sinks and faucets manufacturer. From handcrafted in Germany Steelart® sinks and the beauty of Silgranit®, to the European design faucets, BLANCO products are celebrated worldwide for their unmatched quality and design. Blanco Silgranit® sinks are proudly manufactured in Canada TRADE ONLY.

Fisher & Paykel incorporates the world’s most innovative technologies and produce the most technically advanced, efficient and contemporary styled appliances. DCS created the first line of high end, commercial quality appliances and expanded to pioneer indoor and outdoor kitchen solutions for the at home chef. TRADE ONLY.

Through our customer feedback, we have learned the importance of ‘service’. You said and we listened. We addressed your needs and improvised; bringing you services and quality no one in the industry offers.

Euro-Line Appliances has brought elite European engineered appliances to Canadian homes for over 25 years. Our brands exceed expectations and have earned awards in design, engineering, performance, and energy efficiency. All of our cooking, refrigeration, dishwashers, and laundry appliances are created to conserve our non-renewable resources.

Sharing Passion & Performance. With our unique expertise and sensibilities, gained from our devotion to sound and music, we are committed to creating excitement and cultural inspiration together with people around the world.

Created by fusion of exceptional design, superior quartz quality and cutting-edge technology, HansStone Quartz weaves together intriguing patterns and colours inspired by the diverse Canadian landscape.

Fusion Stone is an easy and budget-friendly way to beautifully upgrade your home, inside and out. A patented Shouldice innovation, Fusion Stone is a thin stone veneer that is easily installed with the included stainless steel clips & screws. You just screw it to the wall and it’s “Hooked for Life”.

Since 1989 Men At Work has specialized in renewing and enlarging older houses in core Toronto neighbourhoods. We are experts in managing the challenges of renovating sensitive old buildings into beautiful, functional, comfortable living spaces.

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