Strong El Nino sets the stage for warmer winter

COLLEGE PARK, Md. — Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook, favoring cooler and wetter weather in southern tier states with above-average temperatures most likely in the West and across the northern tier.

This year’s El Nino, among the strongest on record, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream.

“A strong El Nino is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Nino are favored, El Nino is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter.

Limiting factors

However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.

Other factors that often play a role in the winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and nor’easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can impact the number of heavy rain storms in the Pacific Northwest.

Precipitation outlook

Wetter-than-average conditions will most likely persist in the southern tier of the U.S., from central and southern California, across Texas, to Florida, and up the East Coast to southern New England.

Above-average precipitation is also favored in southeastern Alaska. Drier-than-average conditions WILL most likely persist for Hawaii, central and western Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, and for areas near the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Temperature outlook

Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the West and the northern half of the contiguous U.S. Temperatures are also favored to be above-average in Alaska and much of Hawaii.

Below-average temperatures are most likely in the southern Plains and Southeast.

Drought outlook

The U.S. Drought Outlook shows some improvement in central and southern California by the end of January, but not drought removal. Additional statewide relief is possible during February and March.

Drought removal is likely across large parts of the Southwest, while improvement or removal is also likely in the southern Plains. However, drought is likely to persist in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with drought development likely in Hawaii, parts of the northern Plains and in the northern Great Lakes region.

“While it is good news that drought improvement is predicted for California, one season of above-average rain and snow is unlikely to remove four years of drought,” said Halpert. “California would need close to twice its normal rainfall to get out of drought and that’s unlikely.”

This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

For more information, visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html.