The "experts" have spoken and disagree that Minnick's negative ads affected the outcome of the 1st Congressional District race. Citing only internal polls showing "the ads had great effect," the "experts" say Minnick did what he had to do to give himself a chance to win. A great effect on what and on whom, as the thirty-point underdog laughs all the way to Washington. That's hilarious, but not in a good way.

Here are a few questions the "experts" don't answer. Last cycle (2008) Walt picked up 45% of the vote in Canyon County; this cycle only 36%. Making up 22.2% of the population, how did Walt's ads affect the Hispanic vote in Canyon County? How about the other heavily Hispanic populations in Owyhee, Payette and Washington counties? Did Hispanic voters turn out at all? If so, how many turned out for Labrador? Of those, how many did so because of Minnick's ads?

Here's a thought. As Idaho Democrats, instead of crawling home licking our wounds wondering what in the hell happened, how about we invest in some actual exit polling so we have some idea what did actually happen. The guessing game doesn't appear to be working so well for us. Neither did the "we'll disguise ourselves as Republicans" game.

Here it is. Election day 2010. Not quite the election day of 2008. Not even close, really. Then, you could almost feel the pulse of a Democratic wave surging. Yes, even in Idaho. Records were set at Democratic caucuses, hope for a new president was overflowing in a raucous Taco Bell Arena and like sharks in bloody water, Democrats could sense that Bill Sali would no longer represent the 1st District. Now, especially in Idaho, that pulse is indiscernible--nearly a flat-line--as weary Democrats stumble to the polls today.

Walt Minnick is going to lose tonight and he won't have anyone but himself to blame. Despite what Minnick says today (that Obama was "a drag on the ballot"), in 2008 he needed all 175,898 voters that turned out in that Democratic wave to eke out a 1.2 percentage-points win over Bill Sali. It was just 4,211 votes more than enough. What happened? Both Minnick's internal and independent polls showed Minnick up by six percentage points within two weeks of that election. Conventional wisdom says that in the end voters "came home," that the 1st District really is that conservative and even a hugely unpopular incumbent with a 41% unfavorable rating could only be beaten in a squeaker. That's the conventional wisdom, anyway. In Idaho it's often wrong.

This is a state where blue turf is a selling point and a large portion of the population consider it a complement to be "peculiar." Conventional wisdom doesn't always apply. In the case of the 2008 1st District race, especially. Something else closed the gap between Minnick and Sali in the final two weeks of that race which the conventional wisdom ignores. In late October, fliers containing the social security numbers of Bill Sali and his wife were sent to voters in the district. The Salis were, justifiably, angry; Idaho Democrats were contrite and Minnick's camp was unapologetic. Undecideds now had a reason to vote and came out for the suddenly and unlikely now-sympathetic Bill Sali. Minnick was lucky then; his blunder nearly cost him the election. He won't be so lucky again.

In 2010, with Minnick plunging from a 30 point lead (in some polls) to a dead heat within two months, outsiders proclaim the 1st District race to be "finally conforming" to national trends. In doing so they again overlook the uniquely peculiar nature of Idaho.

Idahoans, and independents in particular, are especially hostile to negative campaigning. More than most, independents here have a cynical view of politics and political parties and it's that cynicism that accounts for their unusually large numbers in Idaho. What Idahoans admire is authenticity--more so than ideology, whether conservative, progressive or somewhere in between.

Walt Minnick had nearly convinced the electorate of his authenticity but sealed his own fate by deciding to go negative, and in particularly vicious fashion, on Raul Labrador. In mid-September the campaign launched the first of three ads targeting Labradors's work as an immigration attorney. The campaign insisted this was to highlight Labrador's hypocrisy on immigration, not to denigrate his profession. What it did was give otherwise ambivalent conservatives a reason to support Labrador. From dignitaries like former Governor Phil Batt to the rank and file like blogger Clayton Cramer, Minnick's hostile ads solidified Labrador's previously wavering support. The ads also gave otherwise ambivalent Democrats more reason to oppose Minnick. The only apparent increased support from Minnick's ads came from the unsavory ranks of white nationalists.

When pundits talk about Idaho's 1st district race, they will likely include the dramatic implosion of Republican primary candidate Vaughn Ward. They will also likely include the dramatic loss of Walt Minnick and conventional wisdom will chalk it up to a Democrat in a very conservative district caught up in a Republican wave.

The conventional wisdom will also be wrong. This was Walt Minnick's election to lose, and he will.

Today, there is no Democrat more disappointed in Walt Minnick than I.

Update 11.4.10 9:25: As predicted Walt Minnick lost to Raul Labrador, although the margin of victory at 51 to 41.3 was wider than even I expected. Notably but as expected, Walt did especially poorly in the heavily Hispanic populations of Canyon and Owyhee counties: 36.1% to 56.2% and 34.7% to 56.6% respectively.

Memo to Labrador supporters: If you're going to yap about your opponent telling "bald-face lies," you can't then turn around and tell bald-face lies. There's a word for that -- it isn't very attractive -- and you just look silly.

Update: The ad is getting lots of national attention from progressive-types... and none of it good. Daily Kos front-paged the ad today and, without mincing words, said some of what I'd been thinking but hadn't gotten around to writing yet -- especially this:

Not only is this gratuitous, but it hurts his state's small but growing Democratic Party. Believe it or not, Idaho has a rapidly growing Latino community, and Democratic chances in the state depend on nurturing that community and bringing it into the progressive fold.

If Democrats are ever going to make any inroads into ruby-red Canyon County it will be through the Hispanic population. Thanks, John and Walt, for setting us back decades in this effort.

Also, for more local Democrats' reaction, don't miss the goings on at 43rd State Blues; as usual Serephin doesn't disappoint.

Will money buy Idaho Congressman Walt Minnick one more term or will Idaho voters ignore conventional wisdom, leaving both of the heavily-favored money interests in the 2010 1st Congressional District race washed up? We'll know in four months.

Freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D) raised an impressive $410,000 for his re-election effort from April to June, putting his total raised for the cycle at over $1.9 million.
Minnick, whose second-quarter fundraising performance was his best this cycle by far, began July with more than $1.1 million in cash on hand. Minnick's strong fundraising numbers top off what has been a good couple of weeks for the Congressman.

The fundraising numbers, coupled with the primary loss of the GOP's nationally recruited and heavily endorsed candidate, Vaughn Ward, to the grassroots-organized long shot, State Rep. Raul Labrador, prompted CQ Roll Call to move the race for Idaho's 1st CD from "tossup" to "leans Democratic."

Conventional wisdom would call that a reasonable move, but Idaho voters are rarely impressed by conventional wisdom.

With CQ even describing the Labrador campaign as "low-budget," Ward took a 6-1 money advantage into the May primary, then stunned the establishment with his late-inning campaign meltdown, leaving inside and outside the beltway pundits gaping at the enormity of the fall.

The takeaway? Money can buy you many things, but it can't buy you love and it can't always buy you a congressional seat.

That sound you just heard? That was the sound of a GOP congressional hopeful's campaign being flushed. It's hard to see how a candidate recovers from the week that Vaughn Ward has just had. Once the front-runner in the Republican primary to challenge Congressman Walt Minnick for Idaho's 1st Congressional District seat, Ward's campaign has all but handed the primary to State Rep. Raul Labrador, despite Ward's dominant fund-raising advantage and prominent national and state endorsements.

Ward's latest faux pas, reported late this morning, is that he failed to pay his property taxes on time and apparently overstated the value of the property on disclosure statements. That came after the early morning revelation that the U.S. Marine Corps has asked Ward to remove an ad that failed to comply with regulations prohibiting use of information and images that may imply endorsement by the military.

This very bad week began Thursday when it was reported that Ward, who had made railing against government bailouts a centerpiece of his campaign, was being supported, while he campaigned full time, by his wife who worked for the bailed-out, government-backed mortgage giant, Fannie Mae. The week only got worse Saturday with the additional news that he failed to include his wife's assets on his financial disclosure.

A befuddled Ward has countered with arguments ranging from absurd to laughable, including:

Not to mention other gems like, government jobs aren't real jobs and a GOP failure to take Congress in November means every fighter in American history has died in vain. At this rate he'll make Bill Sali look like a paragon of sanity in no time.

If this is the product of Republican Party grooming, perhaps we don't need any.

Quotes For 2010

"The main thing is to keep everybody going down that road as we try to find the answers and solutions to all these problems. It'll be fun! We'll get it done." — Majority Leader Mike Moyle (R-Star) when asked in an Idaho Reports broadcast how the State House will handle making tough budget decisions this year, 1.29.10.

Quotes For 2009

"[Some politicians] wouldn't recognize the Constitution if it fell in their laps and called them Daddy." — Rep. Lenore Hardy Barrett (R-Challis) at a tea party tax protest.

"Just, you know, putting beans on the table." — former Congressman Bill Sali (R-ID-01) when asked by Nate Shelman (670 KBOI) what he's doing these days.

"I said yesterday we hope and pray things will get better before they get worse. It's obvious to me some of you need to do a better job of praying." — Sen. Dean Cameron (R-Rupert), Joint Finance-Appropriation Committee co-chair on the grim economic forecast facing the committee.

“We’ve been called a lot of things but we’ve never been called sneaks before.” — Rep. Maxine Bell (R-Jerome) in a budget dispute with the governor's staff over legislators' computer funding.

"I’m not wearing rose-tinted glasses. But I am a glass-half-full kind of guy." — Gov. C. L. "Butch" Otter attempting to remain optimistic while delivering tough economic news in his State of the State/Budget message.

Quotes For 2008

"I am not ashamed that we use a lot of energy in this country. It has made us the most prosperous Nation on the face of the planet. ... Using energy makes us prosperous." — Congressman Bill Sali (R-ID-01) during debate on an energy bill that, among other things, invested in alternative and renewable energy sources and repealed tax subsidies for large oil companies. (H.R.6899)

"If [Oversight Committee Chairman] Henry Waxman was interested in doing more than just showboat, we'd be there in a heartbeat. It's political grandstanding." — spokesman Wayne Hoffman explaining why Congressman Bill Sali (R-ID-01) was absent from congressional oversight hearings into the financial crisis where, among other things, it was learned that AIG executives indulged in a lavish retreat a week after the bailout.

"You know what, campaigns are fast and furious, I accept responsibility that we don't have the right citation there, but the facts I stand by - we are correct about that." — Congressman Bill Sali (R-ID-01) reacting to a campaign commercial fact-checking report.

"There are people out there without health care, and we need to address that, but it's not as big of a problem as some people would make it out to be" — Congressman Bill Sali (R-ID-01) in a Lewiston, ID debate

"People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power." — President Bill Clinton in a speech at the 2008 DNC

"To my supporters, to my champions, to my sisterhood of the traveling pantsuits, from the bottom of my heart, thank you." — Senator Hillary Clinton in a speech at the 2008 DNC

"The America that we know, that the founding fathers envisioned, will cease to exist." — Congressman Bill Sali (R-ID-01) speaking at the state GOP convention about the possibility of a Democratically controlled White House and Congress.

"Sometimes the problems have to get larger before you can solve them. We can still drive around the potholes, so they must not be big enough." — House Speaker Lawerence Denney (R-Midvale), explaining that lawmakers still need to be convinced about the extent of road maintenance problems before they'll agree to tax or fee increases.

"Those people that believe in shooting animals through the fences . . . ought to turn the rifle the other way." — Former Governor Cecil Andrus, at sportsmen's rally, decked out in full camouflage, urging opposition to "shooter bull" operations on domestic elk farms.

"GARVEE is like swallowing a raw egg - it seems to be one of those things that's really hard to stop in the middle of." — Rep. Marv Hagedorn (R-Meridian), in comments on a package of transportation bills introduced by House GOP leaders at an emergency committee meeting.

"I'm a professional dairyman. I have milked and milked everything I can possibly milk." — State Police Maj. Ralph Powell, arguing that the state crime lab's bare-bones operation has reached its limit and now costs the state money as testing is sent to private labs.

"Idaho is ranked last in the nation in protecting the safety of children in day care centers." — Sen. Kate Kelly (D-Boise), in support of an unsuccessful move by Senate Democrats to force a daycare standards bill out of committee.

"This [anti-discrimination bill] is something we will propose every year until it passes." — Rep. Nicole LeFavour (D-Boise), responding to the latest BSU Public Policy survey in which 63 percent of Idahoans think it ought to be illegal to fire someone for being gay or seeming to be gay.

"I assumed it would be a bunch of radical college students, so to fit the part, I grew a goatee, got a revolutionary T-shirt and put on some ratty jeans." — Rep. Curtis Bowers (R-Caldwell) in an Idaho Press-Tribune opinion explaining how he disguised himself to uncover alleged communist plots.

Quotes For 2007

"Divorce is just terrible. It's one of Satan's best tools to kill America." — Rep. Dick Harwood (R-St. Maries) describing the work of the Idaho Legislature's Family Task Force.

"I am not gay; I never have been gay." Senator Larry Craig (R-ID) in a statement responding to news of his arrest and subsequent guilty plea to disorderly conduct after an incident in an airport men's room.

“Most of the hospitals in this country have Christian names. If you think Hindu prayer is great, where are the Hindu hospitals in this country? Go down the list. Where are the atheist hospitals in this country? They’re not equal.” — Rep. Bill Sali (R-ID-01) to the Idaho Press-Tribune editorial board in response to criticism of his views regarding Hindu prayer in the Senate.

"We are all Nintendo warriors today. Remember that game, that electronic game, a few years ago, push buttons zim, zam, boom and it was all over with? That is not the way you fight war, although we as a society have grown to believe that." — Senator Larry Craig (R-ID) during debate on an amendment to a bill providing for defense authorization.

"While we are Democrats and Republicans, in our hearts we are all Idahoans." — Sen. Clint Stennett (D-Ketchum), reaching out to Republicans while outlining the Democratic agenda for the 2007 legislative session.

"One of the hardest things we've had to do here is taking off our party hats." — Rep. Marv Hagedorn (R-Meridian) on a proposal to restrict Idaho's primary elections.

"This is outrageous. The people of Idaho are entitled to have their representatives base their votes on the merits of a bill, not on who backed the loser in a speaker's contest." — Former GOP Gov. Phil Batt responding to accusations of political retribution taken by House Speaker Denney (R-Midvale) on other members.

“There was one of those six projects that was removed altogether. Why? Because the senator and the representatives from that district were from the wrong political party. We need to take a step back" — Sen. Dean Cameron (R-Rupert) to the Senate when debating the GARVEE bill.

"I'm prepared to bid for that first ticket to shoot a wolf myself." — Gov. Butch Otter, speaking to a hunters' rally at the Statehouse.

"To get a kick out of smoking industrial hemp, it would take a cigar the size of a telephone pole." — Rep. Tom Trail (R-Moscow), downplaying the relation between hemp and its cousin marijuana

"I guess I would just make a plea saying we need the money. You know we need the money on roads." — Rep. JoAn Wood (R-Rigby), on proposed bill to collect gas tax from sales on Indian reservations.

"No one wants to carry the canoe bill." — Rep. Eric Anderson (R-Priest River), agreeing with Gov. Otter that non-motorized boats should also pay registration fees, but noting any such proposal will be a tough sell.

"I don't think we should let the threat of a lawsuit force us to implement something that's not well thought out." — Abbie Mace, Fremont County Clerk, testifying against a "modified-closed primary" bill being pushed by GOP leaders.

"There's a lot of things that I pointed out in my State of the State (address) that haven't passed. Unfortunately, I can't think of one that has." — Gov. Butch Otter, addressing reporters on the legislative session so far.

"I say let's have a hearing and take our clothes off and go after it." — Rep. Jim Clark, R-Hayden Lake, trying to get lawmakers to print his bill.