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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES APPEAR TO SHOW THAT DOLLY IS LOCATED A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THIS IS A
REFORMATION UNDER THE CONVECTION AND NOT A MOTION TO THE EAST. IF
THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH LATTER PICTURES...DOLLY WILL STILL BE A 45
KNOT TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER IS FARTHER TO THE
WEST...IT WOULD BE A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM.
DOLLY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW.
THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL. THEREFORE...NO CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH SHIPS AND
THE GFDL MODELS INSIST ON STRENGTHENING.
FORECASTER AVILA/NELSON
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 21.5N 53.0W 45 KTS
12HR VT 04/0000Z 22.8N 53.0W 45 KTS
24HR VT 04/1200Z 24.0N 53.2W 45 KTS
36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.0N 53.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 52.5W 45 KTS
72HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 51.0W 45 KTS
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