Praise for the book

Monday, March 9, 2015

My new article on youthful countries breaking alliances

We know there are a lot of links between a state's age structure and its behavior. Does this relationship extend to alliances? Along with Dr. TongFi Kim, I published an article in International Interactions showing that there is indeed a strong relationship. Youthful states are much more likely to abrogate alliances than states with older age structures. We think these findings have major implications for US alliance policy. Email me if you'd like a copy. See: "The Effect of Age Structure on the Abrogation of Military Alliances."

Abstract:
Scholars of alliance politics have ignored a potentially important factor that shapes foreign policy: the age structure of a state. In this article, we argue that an alliance member is more likely to terminate the alliance in violation of the terms when the state’s youth ratio is high. The demographic pressure of a high youth ratio raises potential for political instability domestically, which in turn increases the risk of radical foreign policy changes. We demonstrate the effects of a state’s age structure on its alliance policy by examining alliance termination by violation from 1950 to 2000. Through quantitative analysis, we find that youth ratio is a strong and significant predictor of alliance abrogation. A brief examina- tion of several examples illustrates two paths by which the pressure created by a high youth ratio contributes to political instability and results in alliance abrogation—leadership change that brings about a new foreign policy and appeasement of the population through abrogation of an unpopular alliance.

About the book

World population now stands at almost 7 billion and if current trends continue, more than 11 billion people will populate our planet by 2050. Large youth populations, massive migration, and differential growth among ethnic groups suggest that the 21st century will undoubtedly include multiple threats to national security: interstate wars, civil conflict, and millions of deaths from poverty and disease. At the same time, urbanization and maturing age structures will create new opportunities for peace and prosperity.

The Future Faces of War: Population and National Security--the first comprehensive book on demography and security in a decade--analyzes the challenges faced and posed by great powers, such as Russia and China; strategic states, like Pakistan and Iran; and rising powers, including Brazil and India. Through analysis aimed at policymakers and general readers, International Relations scholar Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba identifies the trends that offer opportunities for building partnerships and strengthening security, and those that challenge global and civil peace.

Understanding population growth and other demographic trends is crucial to national security, as population issues play a central role in efforts to ensure national defense, avoid societal collapse, and meet citizens’ basic needs. Focusing on multiple scenarios and the theoretical links between population and security, Sciubba’s insights will remain relevant for years to come.