At the end of last week, the parliamentary committee for business, energy and industrial strategy concluded, and announced, that the government should bring forward its proposed ban on the UK sale of new petrol and diesel-only cars and vans by eight years to 2032, to help the fight against global warming.

Ignoring for a moment that the end of 2018 is almost in sight, that’s about 14 years from now. Coincidentally – or perhaps not – 14 years is about what the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) currently estimates the average life of a car to be before it’s scrapped. To be precise, the SMMT reckons it’s 13.9 years, and while that figure dates back to calculations made in 2015, it’s the most recent statistic available.

If, and it really is only if, the government did bring forward its proposed 2040 ban to 2032, it would mean every new car sold in 2018 or before will be coming to, or have reached, the end of its useful life by the time the ban comes into force. That neatly paves the way for a wholesale electrification/hybridisation of our road traffic from that day forward. Well, that’s the theory.

What it also paves the way for is massive and increasing uncertainty in the years leading up to the ban on petrol and diesel sales, starting from, well, pretty much right now if that 14-year figure is to be taken into account. No one is saying that we won’t be able to use petrol and diesel-fuelled cars on UK roads after a ban on sales of new ones, but would you buy a new petrol or diesel car in 2019 knowing that 13 years later it would, in effect, be worthless? Perhaps you would, but would you buy one in 2024? Or 2029? Would anyone?

Never mind the fact that plans for a nationwide charging infrastructure to support the switch to electric cars is about as clear as mud, the effect the sales ban could have on new car sales in the lead-up to it would be catastrophic. The SMMT has already said a 2040 date is ambitious, and chief executive Mike Hawes has politely described the even earlier proposal as “almost impossible”.

Without a clear strategy to address the looming and growing redundancy of new car stock in the run-up to a ban, the sales market would be thrown into turmoil and could possibly collapse through the floor. Would buyers of non-hybrid/non-electric vehicles in the meantime be placated with the promise of attractive scrappage incentives post-2032? Or post-2040? Or post-whenever it might happen? The government's recent cutting of grants to buy hybrids and EVs suggests not.

A 2032 ban almost certainly won’t happen, of course. Back in July, the government published its ‘Road to Zero’ report, going into more detail on how the proposed 2040 ban would be implemented. Some critics responded by accusing the Conservatives of watering down the original proposal, and that in turn put fuel on the fire (pardon the pun) that led to last week’s call for an even earlier petrol and diesel sales cut-off.

Unfortunately, government policy is all too often driven by short-term political gain (or damage limitation), resulting in ill-considered knee-jerk responses and non-solutions to immensely complex issues – and as immensely complex issues go, a co-ordinated multinational strategy to cut CO2 emissions in order to address global warming is right up there.

The consensus, of course, is that something really does need to be done. Following the publication of a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, some scientists are now suggesting that we have just 12 years to prevent ‘catastrophic’ temperature rises. It would, apparently, require near-draconian industrial and societal changes in order to address that – so much so that choosing whether to buy a new petrol Ford Focus or a Nissan Leaf in a couple of years’ time could be the least of our worries.

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I doubt most people will be concerned that their car will be worthless in 14 years. People who take out cars on PCP's now are writing off thousands of pounds within 4 years with nothing to show for it and the end!

The last paragraph says it all.The IPCC is so discredited why would anyone waste time on listening to them.It's as silly as the recent news in Australia that the "greens" what to cull all sheep and cattle in Australia to stop the methane production.Question,where will the $300billion revenue that would be lost if someone took this seriously.Then you would need more arable land to grow vegetables with all the costs associated with that in areas that can't support wheat,rice etc farming.

Yet another blah blah blah from government, we have to be seen to be saying something nonsense.

I like the idea of electric cars but the lack of realistic plans addressing power infrastructure and so called recycling (to meet in any fast time period a large growth of the salvage industry will be required)

No government anywhere wants to deal with the stifling affects of population growth which lets face it dictates where all this is going.

but would you buy a new petrol or diesel car in 2019 knowing that 13 years later it would, in effect, be worthless? Perhaps you would, but would you buy one in 2024? Or 2029? Would anyone?

Firstly, pretty much everyone knows that when they buy a car it will be worthless in (quite a bit less than) 13 years.

Secondly as there is no suggestion that existing petrol or even diesels will be banned from use after their sale is stopped, why would they be valueless. Might it not be that as new ones will no longer be available that people will be keen to hang onto them? Might their value not go up after the ban?

We still haven't seen old electric cars, so we dont know how the battery will stand up to age, but I suspect for people running an older car that the well proven petrol technology will be what they want. As most second hand cars start life as company cars, more of a concern for the public will be the lack of supply of cheap reliable cars, as new CoCars drivers will choose the lowest tax option, with no concern about the future of the car.

I am sure after 2032, or when ever some politician is brave enough to impose the ban people will prize non electric cars

Amazing how many of the media overlook the simple point that the planned 2032/2040 rules will still allow hybrid vehicles, which are predominantly petrol-powered devices with a bit of electric help.

So there will still be petrol stations and people will still need to put petrol in their new hybrid cars after 2032/2040, let alone continuing to refuel millions of existing petrol-powered vehicles. In other words, this is all alarmist nonsense.

The automotive industry always complains when they have to implement anything. But in the end catalysts, seat belts, 5 star NCAP cars didn't cause any disaster for the automotive industry as people still needed the same number of cars.

The shift to electric will be no different it will just change who survives.

Long before 2030 electric cars will have a lower total cost of ownership and I doubt very much that any manufacturer has a plan to initate a new petrol car platform post 2020 so this legislation would be moot anyway.