Buying the Crypto Bust

Long-time independent trader Chris Cady says there’s “blood in the streets” in the crypto market — which tells him there may be opportunity. Specifically, he now likes the idea of buying Ethereum on the cheap. He reviews his full thesis in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on October 1, 2018.

The bear argument against Ethereum is that peak demand has been reached for Ethereum as many developed and some developing countries are really cracking down on initial coin offerings (ICOs) and that that was by far the main demand driver for Ethereum. Almost all ICOs were paid for in Ether. And there will be a lot less ICOs going forward. Although that may be a good thing. There was a ton of fraud in the ICO space. I know people who have been in Bitcoin for many years who got de-frauded in ICOs. That's how sophisticated some of the ICO fraud was.

Most of the crypto charts remain bearish. Bear market rallies are clearly corrective and then are followed by selling to ever lower levels. The crypto kooks yell manipulation, lol, it's like a religion or something. Lower prices ahead.

I'm certainly interested in Crypto 'for academic/bedtime reading purposes' but I'm not qualified to pass judgement on any of the technologies and see little value in communicating by biases to others. However when considering whether or not to put money into Ethereum ( or any other instrument) I consider the following: is there a liquid market? No! Who's my counter party? No idea! Are Ethereum Options or Futures available? No! Until the aforementioned changes I'll stay away.

Purpose of these "crypto assets" is not to have any counter party risks. I'm am not a proponent of having options and futures for these crypto assets either. Derivatives to things like ETH just does not make sense. Question is how much of your portfolio you want it be tied to the existing financial market system?

This is one of the weakest pitches I have seen in my investment career... the buy argument is “because the asset hasn’t been disproven”? Wow....
My thesis has been since last year, that Bitcoin and all the other cryptos are a ZERO. There is no chance in the world that if the Crypto market doesnt blow up by its own lack of merit, in the offchance that it goes up again, the Fed (or the Treasurt) will simply make it illegal to transact in Bitcoin.
Think about it, this is the currency of the dark web, of illegal arms, drugs trade, and of massive TAX evasion. The only power a government has is to print money and to tax people. They are not going to relinquish the power to print money (even if only in a measured amount) to a third party... they may not be able to stop people from mining bitcoins but by making it illegal tender they will “disprove” the asset in a binary event.....
I shorted Bitcoin at 19,000, covered it in the low 6,000’s. Looking for another opportunity to short again.
Have spoken with so many bulls and always ask for their bull case to disprove mine. Never had a remotely convincing argument. This things is like religion, its based on faith and faith alone....

Pedro with your weak argument sounds like you bought into the anti-crypto religion--uh should I say counter religion? heh. There are adoptions in the space. I bet you don't even know what a dark web is. Last time that phrase is used in a movie title.

Pedro, i am sorry but i don't understand people with your thinking.Every argument that i hear about "crypto is going to zero" is that, governments have to ban it because they could not have the power to tax people and control the economy. You know that governments tax people like you right? Are you the government or something,why you defend an entity that wants to take a cut of your hard work,i cannot understand that. I am against tax evasion but this argument is self destructive. Why do you want so much to get taxed. If you like so much to get taxed, i can tax you if you like,just send me 10% of your paycheck and i will tell you that i will send these money to help poor people in order to feel that you are doing something good for the society.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurherman/2018/10/02/why-blockchain-is-no-silver-bullet-for-cyber-threats/#8dee670343cb
https://theqrl.org this the only existing solution to the Quantum Computing threat to BTC and ETH and all other cryptos using ECDSA.

Yet another I a long row of pointless “trade ideas” - didn’t here any thesis - borderline embarrassing. Cmon RealVision you really don’t have to push more nonsense. Stick to the quality stuff which you did so fantastically in the early years!!
If it wasn’t for the fantastic Druckenmiller piece last week I would almost be about to give up on you!

I also think that crypto can go up during the Christmas like last year and sure it can buble a bit. Or not. If there will something like next buble only global crypto adoption can trigger it.
I also think that ETH is not the best horse to bet on. ETH is outdated technology and there are better one in terms of security and scalability. Successful crypto startups are leaving ETH to its own mainnet, in most cases to compete with ETH. Most of the crypto startup scams based on ETH are now taking out money from ETH as they see sinking ship.
Some things can change the release of "CASPER" update, but I think it will be too late for ETH.
If you want go crypto take ETH only as part of your crypto portfolio, not more then 20%.

What keeps me up at night on Crypto? Every single one of these has been hacked, when the rhetoric from day one has been these blockchains and ledgers can't be hacked and/or every transaction can be traced or verified. Tell that to thousands of account holders who've lost millions of dollars all over the globe. Who the hell wants to chase their digital money which is like chasing Keyser Soza. Lost in thin air for sure. I'll take GOLD and other ASSETS over Crypto.

Good point Sam and like your reference to Keyser Soze. One other point here is that the IRS is now getting fully "invested" in crypto transactions. I think we may find a huge proportion of crypto dealings have not been reported. Crypto not only threatens government control and monitoring of financial transactions but it is without question the chosen medium for criminal activity. I understand it is also dominated by Chinese transactions. Just feels very risky.

The bitcoin price development since Dec 2017 is not reflecting the technological advances in the last 10 months.
Well - Bitcoin has not crashed as much as a lot of the altcoins & ICOS.
well...what's the difference in the technology between Dec '17 and now?
Please google the Lightning Network. A payment layer on Bitcoin which has gone live beginning this year.
The innovation in Bitcoin space is amazing and the developer talent joining is incredible qualified and smart and really good.
Please follow the talks at the real developer conferences - and not the superficial non-sense talks at Consensus/Coindesk.
Plus there are tons of exchanges / on-ramps being build worldwide (Bakkt/NSYE, BISON/Stuttgart Boerse, etc..)

Perception has changed and there is now price value relative to 10months ago. A pure trader may buy that price. All he seems to be saying is Ether is still well supported by dev community but down alot in price. So worth a punt.
Put another way: If this was the price of wheat but some people are still eating bread, would it be more attractive to buy when down ~90%? What do i need to know about the wheat process to make a trade here? Maybe a price trader will trade price. Thats what i understood.
He'll set trade criteria and make trade if trigger criteria met. Seems fair and not clown-like.
What might make you buy or sell? Tuur Demester or Trace Mayer saying to do it in an online video?

I agree with M.W. below. Cryptos are an important investment arena to cover-- and while Chris Cady's general comments are welcome; they are without depth of knowledge of the space and the tech. See M.W's comments below, with which I agree.

Definition of an ASSET: An asset is anything of value or a resource of value that can be converted into cash. Individuals, companies, and governments own assets. For a company, an asset might generate revenue or the company might benefit in some way from owning or using the asset. Crypto is NOT a currency. I'm just saying.

I kind of have to agree in principle with M W. below. It would seem to me that Real Vision might have the pull to get significant players/commentators in the space and present the kind of in-depth marco / fundamental perspectives that they bring to the markets. As a trader of this stuff on a speculative basis, I for one would love to see Real Vision take the opportunity to present it customers with some deep dive, insight into where the space is, how the infrastructure is developing, and the real use case value long term on some of these crypto projects.

This guy has no idea about the problems of ethereum!
It’s a very flawed project - read this:
The Ethereum-blockchain size has exceeded 1TB, and yes, it’s an issue
https://hackernoon.com/the-ethereum-blockchain-size-has-exceeded-1tb-and-yes-its-an-issue-2b650b5f4f62?gi=c60a1d4e8b2e
For now the only real use case for Blockchain & Cryptoassets is “Digital Store of Value”.
For me Bitcoin is real internet infrastructure.
Everything else in the space is completely delusional scammy experiments with absurd valuations - see IOTA or Tron....