Friday, June 24, 2016

A Detailed Guide to How the “Dump Trump” Movement Could Actually Dump Trump at the Convention

Why are we here?

Because it’s happening. Again. Yep, the speculation that maybe—just maybe—Donald Trump might not be the Republican nominee after all is back. The latest effort to deny Trump the nomination is being organized by a small group of GOP delegates who went public late last week with a last-gasp plan to rewrite the convention rules in order to free all 2,472 delegates to vote for whomever they please in Cleveland.
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I thought Trump already had this sucker locked up. For the love of God, no one else is even running against him anymore. Why are we talking about this again?

There are three main reason the #DumpTrump effort is getting so much attention. The first is that the push is being led by actual delegates this time, not the #NeverTrump conservative punditry that tried and failed to derail Trump during primary season. The second is that political reporters won’t stop dreaming of a contested convention until the balloons come down on the last night in Cleveland. And the third: Trump’s campaign is really not going well. Calling it a dumpster fire at this particular moment in time is an insult to dumpster fires.

Go on.

Trump’s poll numbers have taken a dive following his racist comments about the Mexican heritage of an Indiana-born judge and his Islamophobic—and self-congratulatory—response to the Orlando, Florida, shooting. His campaign infrastructure is nearly nonexistent. His fundraising is anemic. Far too much of what little money he has raised, meanwhile, has gone either to businesses that he owns, that make hats, or that might not actually exist at all. And in the month and a half since becoming his party’s presumptive nominee, he has shown neither the interest nor the ability to recognize that winning a general election is a far different task than winning a Republican primary.

Add all that up and you get renewed contested convention speculation. It’s not that a Trump-denying turn of events is probable at this point—it most certainly is not—only that it is so-you’re-saying-there’s-a-chance possible.

Wait, but you really are saying there’s a chance?

I suppose I am. It’s a long shot—and even that description is probably overly generous—but if Trump has another couple of weeks like his past couple of weeks, he could conceivably look like a dead candidate walking by the time he gets to Cleveland. The Republican Party would then be faced with the prospect of not just a landslide loss in the presidential election but one that could also trigger a down-ballot disaster, costing the party the Senate and potentially even putting the House in play. For Republican officials, standing behind a candidate you think is racist and dangerous is one thing; standing behind a candidate you think is racist and dangerous and who could cost you your job, quite another.