On the Colorado River, a tug-of-war on a tightrope

A wet winter could jeopardize Colorado’s drought-protection water stash

In the 83 years since representatives of the seven
Colorado River Basin states first divvied up the river’s
water, there’s always been enough to meet the states’
needs. Not anymore. A relatively wet winter has done little to
offset five years of the worst drought in the region’s
recorded history, and Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the river
system’s "backup batteries," are at less than half of their
combined capacity. Representatives from the seven states are
squinting hard at the fine print in the 1922 Colorado River Compact
and arguing about what, exactly, will happen when there’s not
enough water to go around.

A lot is at stake: Twenty-five
million people depend on water stored behind the Colorado River
dams, which are operated by the federal Bureau of Reclamation. If
water levels drop low enough, U.S. Secretary of the Interior Gale
Norton will declare a "shortage" on the river. The Central Arizona
Project, which supplies water to Phoenix and Tucson, and Las Vegas,
Nev., will be the first to lose their shares (HCN, 3/21/05: Arizona
returns to the desert). If the drought deepens, Denver and its
suburbs, which draw water from the Colorado River across the
Continental Divide, may not be far behind.

Last December,
Secretary Norton directed the seven states to come up with a plan
for weathering a continuing drought. She warned that, without
agreement among the states, she would be forced to impose new
federal rules that would reduce water deliveries (HCN, 1/24/05: A
crisis brews on the Colorado). That ultimatum touched off a series
of meetings between the states this spring. But at the end of
April, the talks ended in stalemate. All eyes turned to Norton, who
did something no one expected: She blinked.

Low-flow negotiations At the center of the
struggle is Lake Powell, the uppermost of the two reservoirs. The
Upper Basin states — Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico
— use the reservoir to meet water-delivery requirements to
the Lower Basin states — California, Arizona and Nevada
— and Mexico during dry years, rather than cutting off their
own users.

During the meetings this spring, Colorado and
Arizona, which under the complex calculus of the law of the river
have the most at stake, fought a tug-of-war over how much water
should be released from Lake Powell. Traditionally, the Bureau of
Reclamation releases 8.23 million acre-feet of water every year
from Lake Powell downstream to Lake Mead. (One acre-foot of water
is about 326,000 gallons, a year’s supply for a family of
four.) But in response to the drought, late last year Norton
pledged to review the water conditions this April and determine how
much water to release through the end of September.

The
Upper Basin states, citing a long-standing difference in
interpretation of how the river should be "operated," argued that
Norton should reduce releases below 8.23 million acre-feet. They
pointed out that the Lower Basin is already getting plenty of
water, thanks to the first wet year since the drought began, which
pumped twice as much as normal into Lower Basin tributaries.

"The release of 8.23 million acre-feet is not a number
required in the compact," says Don Ostler, the director of the
Upper Colorado River Commission. "It’s just a number that the
Bureau developed … in about 1970." Upper Basin states
maintain it’s simply a rough average that includes an ample
cushion to ensure that downstream users won’t be shorted.

But Arizona and the other Lower Basin states argued for
the standard 8.23 million acre-feet release. That would make more
water available to Arizona, which could "bank" much of its share in
underground aquifers for use in the future, as well as ensuring
that Las Vegas’ water intakes in Lake Mead actually stay
below the water.

The meetings between the various state
representatives this spring only hardened their differences.
Arizona Department of Water Resources director Herb Guenther says
that, at one point, "We were going to hire a plane and tow a banner
that said ‘8.23 or Bust’ over Hoover Dam."
"Discretion," he says, dictated otherwise; he simply showed up at
the meeting brandishing a gag "8.23" sign.

Betting against the future Finally in late
April, after the states failed to come up with a plan, they turned
to Secretary Norton. On May 2, citing the slightly above-average
snowpack this winter, Norton announced that the Bureau of
Reclamation would deliver the full 8.23 million acre-feet this
year.

The wet winter has, indeed, pushed the risk of a
shortage declaration off to at least 2008. But long-term river flow
models based on tree-ring studies show that the likelihood of
continued, severe drought is fairly high. While nobody will be
shorted water this year, Norton’s decision has placed the
Upper Basin states at greater risk in the future by eroding more of
their drought hedge in Lake Powell.

"The Upper Basin
legitimately looks on Lake Powell as its insurance policy. As
Powell drops, the risk of that insurance running out is
heightened," says David Getches, the dean of the University of
Colorado law school and an expert on Colorado River politics. "I
think the Upper Basin states are rightly concerned."

The
Interior Department will hold another meeting of Colorado River
water users before the end of the month in an effort to devise a
long-term strategy for dealing with the drought. When Norton made
her May 2 announcement, she reiterated her authority to reduce
releases from Lake Powell in the future, a signal that she may soon
take a harder line on the river.

"(Secretary Norton) has
enormous power over the river," says Getches. "I think she’s
in a good position right now to say it could have been a lot worse
for the Lower Basin, and it’s time for the Basin states to
all get serious."