Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The conflict in Syria has gone on for almost two years now and there is no end in sight. Why? There is no National leader or international contingent able to match the bravado of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in bizarre and brutal actions carried out by both sides in the conflict. Hundreds of thousands have abandoned their homes seeking safe haven in Turkey and Jordan. Still others have taken up arms to fight for their freedom in a civil war that has turned into a futile conflict.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Turkish President Abdullah Gul

Political leaders from around the world have proven to be impotent when standing up to al-Assad. Syrian forces have fired mortars and rockets into Turkey and shot down a Turkish plane. These provocations garnered only a limp response from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan who talked tough during the beginning stages of the conflict. Erdogan’s words have not been backed up with action proving he is a dog that is all bark and no bite. The President of Turkey Abdullah Gul has also issued empty statements regarding the Syrian conflict but has done nothing militarily to resolve the situation. Turkish leaders when asked about their stance in the conflict they all remark that the Syrian and Turkish people have a deep kinship dating back centuries.

Jordan's King Abdullah

Jordan's King Abdullah originally took a pacifist role in the situation by sending his representatives to Damascus for discussions on how to resolve the political uprisings and protests peacefully.The king has also supported all resolutions proposed by the UN and Arab League to bring the conflict to an end. Like Turkey Jordan has been host to millions of displaced Syrians. These acts of generosity prove that Syria's neighbors do have a longstanding affinity for each other. The ever expanding refugee populations are draining Jordan of their resources, particularly fresh water. These reasons alone should be enough to force al-Assad from his ivory tower but King Abdullah has been reluctant to raise his fist in anger. The king has found sufficient resolve to invite the American armed forces to stay behind after a joint exercise “Operation Eager Lion” that took place last spring. The Army special operations forces set up shop with personnel that specialize in biological and chemical warfare and decontamination. Combat ready units are also deployed along Jordan’s northern border with Syria. The 150 U.S. Army Special Forces are there to augment the king's army and are by no means sufficient to carry out a cross border action with the Syrian military.

U.S. President Barack Obama

The President of the United States Barack Obama has said that the only way American armed forces would intervene in the Syrian civil war was that if al-Assad moved any of his chemical weapons. Well chemical weapons were moved and Obama changed his tune, he is now saying that their would only be repercussions if the bio/chem weapons are used. CIA sources report that MOST stockpiles are secure? The Stockpiles are not centralized but scattered around the country in 50 to 60 depots. These weapons can be deployed quickly and by various methods. aircraft, ballistic missile, mortar shells, artillery rockets and IEDs. If these weapons are deployed in small quantities no one will be able to stop their use and when they are used it will be too late for not only a preemptive strike but a retaliatory strike as well. Small quantities of agents such as mustard gas canisters could already be on the move to al-Qaeda in Iraq and no one would be alerted till after an attack.

President al-Assad has played his cards very well and his brash military moves have kept him in the seat of Syrian power. No matter what you think of the man or his tactics he has the brass balls and he has shriveled his detractors into raisins. Now that the conflict is approaching the two year milestone it is a very real possibility that the people of Syria will be experiencing his brass balls for quite some time.

Brigadier General Manaf Tlas

The United Nations at this point is a non-actor in the Syrian situation and will continue to be a stooge organisation on the world stage. It will take a strong regional leader to step up and take charge of the situation in Syria if their is a real desire to overthrow President al-Assad and bring about a new democratic government. However the motivation is just not there right now. A political resolution to the Syrian civil war seems to be as distant as the moon but what maybe in al-Assad’s stars is a military leader like Brigadier General Manaf Tlas. Now living in France in a self imposed exile Tlas may be able to take control, unite the countries opposition and assume power if he can match the brass of his former boss.

The nitty-gritty truth,President Obama is an enemy of the United States. No one will admit it, Democrats dismiss criticism as partisan politics, Republicans gloss over it with words like incompetence but the evidence of action all points to Obama aiding and abetting islamist extremists. Wednesday Representative Trey Gowdy was hot, he was on fire about the current administrations actions following the terrorist attack in Benghazi Libya. Watching the video you will see how emotional Congressman Gowdy was. Now he is not the only one expressing outrage at this severe security blunder a bipartisan parade is forming right behind him. Joe Biden in his opening remarks during the Vice Presidential Debate chocked it up the Benghazi blunder to a simple mistake. He was nonchalant about it, pointing his finger at the intelligence community. The vice president is a co-conspirator with Obama and they both belong in jail for undermining the security of the United States. The Benghazi incident was not the tip of the iceberg but a story that was too big to be ignored. Thursday 10/11, one month to the day (AQAP) al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula killed a security official at the US embassy in Yemen. The news has been slow getting out about this attack partly because the the man that was killed was not an American citizen and the media big boys are still playing defense for the president. The attackers on a motorcycle opened fire on a car carrying Qassem Aqlan, a Yemeni man who headed the embassy security team. The drive-by shooting took place on Siteen street in the center of Sanaa Yemen's capital.

The Yemeni officials that responded to the incident claim that Siteen is one of the safest streets in the capitol. Judging by the photograph their standards are either very low or Sanna is extremely dangerous, both would be accurate statements. The photo also depicts a totally unsecured crime scene with bystanders milling about and contaminating the crime scene. One individual is actually looking into the subject vehicle probably leaving his fingerprints all over it. Mr Aqlan was ambushed by motorcycle gunmen and was shot three times in the head. Clearly he was targeted by AQAP because he worked out of the American embassy as a foreign service officer in the role of national investigator. This murder typifies the AQAP agenda, if you work for the Americans we will kill you at any time, regardless of who you are or what you do.Monday of the same week Major General Salem Ali Qatan of the Yemeni Army was killed by an al-Qaeda suicide bomber in the city of Aden. The general was working with American advisers that are their to prop up the most recent presidential puppet installed by the Obama Administration, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi the former VP. The general was conducting operations in southern Yemen that successfully put down militant uprisings that occurred as a result of the Arab Spring movement that lead to the downfall of the previous American puppet president, Ali Abdullah Saleh.

These types of attacks are commonplace in Yemen, Iraq and Libya and will soon be occurring in Egypt. The fact is that the Obama Administration has been instrumental in the facilitation of the Arab Spring movement as outlined in previous stories in this blog (Egyptian Democracy Imploding!!!). The lead off to that story was a question, “Will the Obama White House implode under the weight of A Middle Eastern scandal?” That question has now been answered with the actions of President Obama.The “democratization” of Middle Eastern dictatorships has given al-Qaeda a free hand to franchise like McDonald's in countries that previously were ruled with an iron fist. Just like a fast food restaurant chain al-Qaeda sets up shop in areas that they have no penetration, they move in during a security vacuum, establish a foothold and start recruiting. Al-Qaeda has become a management franchise company of sorts, several managers specializing in logistics and planning, weapons, and explosives, training and public relations will team up and form a cell. This cell will find an aria and set up shop recruiting individuals and training them in the disciplines of being a jihadist. The birthplace of these al-Qaeda managers is the Muslim Brotherhood, the brothers have deep roots in the Middle East going back to the 1930s when the organization was formed to help the Nazis during WWII. This is the same group that President Obama has entertained in the White House and helped get elected to Egypt’s highest office. The Obama Administration’s Director of National Intelligence James Clapper spoke in a congressional hearing saying this gem of nonsense. "The term Muslim Brotherhood is an umbrella term for a variety of movements. In the case of Egypt, a very heterogeneous group, largely secular, which has eschewed violence and has decried al-Qaeda as a perversion of Islam." This is not the first time Mr Clapper has deliberately misled congress he has consistently been proven wrong. The administration’s appointed officials consistently claim that someone misspoke or was misinformed or was misunderstood or was not properly briefed, their is always an excuse to deflect the responsibility of their actions. There's just too many of these mistakes, they are not mistakes at all, it is a deliberate diversionary tactic meant to deceive congressional leaders and the American people. Mr Clapper said this as a part of his prepared remarks to the Senate Intelligence Committee January 31st 2012."We do not assess that al Qaeda's new leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, will change al Qaeda's strategic direction, but most al Qaeda members find Zawahiri's leadership style less compelling than bin Laden's image as a holy man and warrior and will not offer him the deference they gave bin Laden."Ayman al-Zawahiri issued the fatwa to assault the consulate in Benghazi and kill Ambassador Stevens."We judge that al Qaeda's losses are so substantial and its operating environment so restricted that a new group of leaders, even if they could be found, would have difficulty integrating into the organization and compensating for mounting losses."Mohamad al-Zawahiri organized the demonstrations in Egypt, Yemen, Libya and the rest of the countries that followed the Benghazi assault. He was quoted as saying that "he and his brother are al-Qaeda."It is time for a group of unappointed American patriots in the American intelligence and security community to come forward through lawyers if need be and blow the whistle on President Obama’s administration. You have to ask your self. What’s next, who will die next? Will it be another assassination attempt or embassy bombing, it could be in the continental US or Europe or even a cruise ship. The general public just doesn't know, after all according to Vice President Biden the security breakdown that happened in Benghazi Libya was the fault of the intelligence community. Highly unlikely Mr VP but It has been established that James Clapper is a collaborator or at the very least a dunce. The men and women in the American armed forces and secret services need to come forward and tell the truth about their commander in chief.

White House on John Brennan’s Trip to Libya

10 October 2012

THE WHITE HOUSEOffice of the Press SecretaryWashington, D.C.October 10, 2012Statement by NSC Spokesman Tommy Vietor on John Brennan’s Trip to LibyaToday, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism John Brennan met with senior Libyan officials, including President Magariaf, in Tripoli. Mr. Brennan, on behalf of President Obama, expressed support for Libya's ongoing government formation and transition to democracy and accepted condolences for the tragic deaths of four Americans in Benghazi last month.The two sides discussed the continuing investigation into the Benghazi attacks, including specific additional steps Libya can take to better assist the U.S. in ensuring that the perpetrators are brought to justice. Both sides reaffirmed their strong commitment to countering terrorism and violent extremism.Mr. Brennan encouraged Libyan officials to move quickly on refining their policies and advancing government capabilities in the security and justice sectors, and urged Libya to take full and timely advantage of specific offers of assistance from the United States and other international partners.Finally, Mr. Brennan reinforced U.S. support and commitment to the Libyan people and their leaders as they undertake the hard work of governance and reform necessary to build a new Libya.Now that this press release has been distributed, the White House has another scapegoat in the Benghazi blunder. What has also been discovered is that it took three weeks for the Obama Administration to get FBI investigators to the consulate property in Benghazi. That is the same amount of time it took the Bush Administration to invade Afghanistan after 9/11/2001.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

If, or when Israel hits Iran with sorties taking out its nuclear sites the backlash will definitely affect the United States. The big question for the American people: Is the Obama Administration prepared to deal with the situation? The past being a window into the future one can surmise that that answer is no. When it comes to preparation the Obama team seams to ignore mise en place and react to situations as they happen resulting in lost control and adverse results.

Keeping Iran on short leash will minimize it's bite. Iran has been boasting about its navel prowess lately and they have stated that soon it will have assets roaming the oceans of the world. That navel program must not be able to continue and forcing any Iranian navel assets to stand down that maybe in the Persian Gulf, Straights of Hormuz, the Mediterranean or in Syrian ports. Blockading or sequestering these assets will mitigate Iran's ability to move and retaliate at coalition partners. Iran must not be able to block any shipping lanes or chock points like the Straights of Hormuz or the Suez Canal, this is key in maintaining the worlds flow of commodities in and out of the region, namely oil. Minimizing Iran's ability to retaliate in the event of a Israeli/US air strike depends on their reediness and castrating it's satellite operations Hamas and Hezbollah is very important. This will take simultaneous and coordinated air strikes knocking out rocket and missile stockpiles. The ability of Syria intervening on behalf of Iran is becoming more remote with each passing day however Iran has stationed 15,000 Republican Guard troops in southern Syria. The civil war in Syria may actually help the situation by bleeding off some of Iran's resources and manpower. The anticipated escalation of Iran is directly proportional to the assets left behind in the post strike hours and their missile launch capabilities will remain intact unless the strike takes out command and control centers simultaneously. Iran and it's surrogates will retaliate no matter how depleted their capabilities maybe after the initial strike. This why it is imperative advanced pre-strike preparations be complete and comprehensive. This has been a alien concept for the Obama Administration but it is something that the joint chiefs of staff is completely familiar with. One of the big advantages the US now has is the that retired general David Petraeus is now running the CIA. The CIA will be essential in the pre-planing stages as well as the post-strike assessments.

Managing the post-strike politics and the spike in oil prices that will come are a diplomatic nightmare for the Obama White House. So far the international stage has proven to be a no-mans-land for president Obama his consistent inability to manage diplomatic affairs and anticipate the outcome of events in the Middle East has been a hallmark of the administration. President Obama has distanced himself as well as the government from PM Netanyahu and his government since the start of his term. Obama's reluctance to act as a partner with a non-Muslim ally is evident despite his publicly spoken words. Secretary of State Clinton has been working her fingers to the bone but her diplomatic efforts have been undermined by her bosses ineffectiveness and quite frankly Israel has been nothing more than a pit stop on her glob trotting adventures. Perhaps it would better for Israel to sit on their hands till a competent president takes up residence at 1600. Close to the top of The US to-do-list should be the deployment of an anti-missile defense system at their bases in the gulf region as well as systems going to Israel to augment the Iron Dome capabilities. Also infiltration from the Sinai as well as Gaze, Syria and Lebanon will need to be taken into account by the Israelis. A good choice for supplementing the Israelis would be a Marine Expeditionary Unit parked 100 miles off the shore of Lebanon as a pressure release valve for the IDF. The US needs to do a show of force to the Arab world signaling that if your a friend then your back is covered and a MEU is an effective way to deal with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israeli embassy car bombing in New Deli
linked to Iran' Quids forces

Iran and their surrogates have tentacles that reach around the world and just because there is a strike in the Middle East does not mean that Iran will sit on their hands and not strike out against the West asymmetrically. European, American and Middle Eastern countries all stand the chance of being targeted by Iran's clandestine Quids force. The CIA and other allied intelligence forces need to start ASAP shadowing Iran's agents. This will send a signal to Iran that there is no wear to turn for revenge and that any attempt at terrorism will be met with the death of their agents. This may or may not preclude Iran from striking out at the West but it may give them pause and give the affected nation some reaction time if an infiltration is detected.. It is important that an operation such as a strike on Iran's nuclear capabilities be complete and comprehensive. It will be imperative that an accurate damage assessment be done quickly and a follow-up strike accomplished as expeditiously as possible. Providing that the proper mise en place had been executed prior to the strike then the entire operation should be over in less than a week. Knowing how regional actors in the Middle East will react to this is something that must be codified in advance certainly any Sunni factions may be more willing to listen than others. A second strike may be needed and mistaken as an escalation into a conflict by Some Islamic countries, this is something that neither the US or Israel wants. The second strike if necessary will take not only information sharing but diplomatic dancing with the devils in Iraq, Lebanon and Egypt. Political fallout from the strike will need to be dealt with in Israel, Europe and in the continental US. Unassociated states like Venezuela may be willing to give safe haven to Quids force operatives on their way to the US through the Mexican border and Homeland Security needs to be up o that task. Also internally a threat will exist from any radical Shia factions within the US and the FBI must be on top of that threat as well.

Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense systems (THAADS)

Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Iran a promise not an ultimatum at the UN this past week. The “Red Line Speech” was memorable and notable. There is no question about how the PM feels about Iran's intentions. President Obama fell short of declaring a point of no return for Iran but he did state that a nuclear Iran would “threaten the elimination of Israel, the security of Gulf nations and the stability of the global economy.” Both Leaders spoke to their own countries in an attempt to shore up their international positions with their voting blocs. But Netanyahu defiantly upstaged Obama with his visual aids. Netanyahu did not state a time line along with his red line but previously he hinted at an Israeli air strike that would coincide with the US presidential elections. Taking the chart into consideration most speculate that Netanyahu has shifted his time line to late spring or early summer of 2013. This date may in fact be significant, he maybe gambling on his collage buddy Mitt Romney. This new date also gives any new administration a chance to ramp up efforts to dissuade Iran and to make preparations if they can not. During the time between October 2012 and June 2013 back channel communications directed at Tehran reiterating the fact that any aggressive action taken against Israeli/US property or citizens will be dealt with swiftly and with overwhelming force. The time can also be used to conduct a threat assessment to embassies and consulates so another Benghazi style attack will not end with more dead Americans. The CIA needs to work closely with the Mossad in the Middle East identifying operatives of Iran and it's satellite operations. The CIA, FBI the Mexicans and the Canadians also need to communicate and ID individuals that may be traveling to North America and undermine any operations that they are involved in and may pose a security risk.Now that Joint Mine clearing operations have been completed in the Straights of Hormuz and are clear of Iranian mines the Middle East is saturated with US military forces, far to many to list hear. Needless to say if the president wanted a target hit in Iran within the hour it would be done with out breaking a sweat. The ability for Israel or the US to strike multiple targets within Iran at any given time is not the issue. The problem comes in when Iran retaliates with what could be a massive launch of missiles and rockets from multiple locations and countries.

As far as oil prices spiking as a result of the strike that will happen but only due to market forces driving the price up. Iran's capability and willingness to block the Straights of Hormuz is just not their. Any attempt at doing so would be economic suicide for the country. Millions of barrels of Iranian oil flow out of the straights each week and hundreds of tuns of food and commodities flow back in. Iran is their own worst enemy in this regard and if real sanctions were to be placed on Iran then the US could easily bring the country to its knees by prohibiting Iranian shipping into or out of the straights. An Air strike on the “secret” enrichment facilities is a foregone conclusion for several reasons. The negotiations that have taken place over the year have amounted to nothing. The Iranians believe that a strike will not happen because they accept the idea that the Americans do not have the stomach for it. They also believe that their missile capability is a deterrent to any strike that Israel and the West may launch against them. Therefor they concluded that they can act with impunity and speak with arrogance during the UN General Assembly. The truth of the matter is when it comes to international policy President Obama is incapable of balancing force with his impelling desire to appease the Muslim world.

Keeping Iran's henchmen out of the fight that will likely ensue after an Israeli or American air strike will be impossible. Hezbollah is said to have 50,000 rockets at their disposal. Recently Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah fired up a crowd in Beirut over the Islamic video “Innocence of Muslims” he stated that “The world should know that our anger is not a passing thing. ... This is the start of a serious campaign that must continue all over the Muslim world in defense of the prophet of God.” The militants half a million strong Chanted “Death to Israel...Death to America”. Keeping these people contained will be a significant task. If Nasrallah orders his supporters to rush the border they will gladly run into the breach armed with rocks, sticks, pitchforks anything that they can get their hands on. The resulting blood bath will bring serious international condemnation against Israel.

Hezbollah has gone to ground in southern Lebanon after the 2006 war that lasted about a month. During that conflict the kill ratio favored the Israelis 10/1 with Hezbollah firing about 4000 rockets. Since then southern Lebanon has become pockmarked with 550 bunkers, 300 monitoring sites and hundreds of weapons storage facilities. There are about 270 complexes known as “rocket villages” and they are located near hospitals, private homes and schools making air strikes against them controversial even for Western smart bomb technology. One of the clearest signals to send to Nasrallah is cutting off his cash. Hezbollah and Hamas are operating fund razing enterprises in North and south America, Europe, Australia and Indonesia. The CIA, MI6 and the Mossad working together and clandestinely need to root out these organizations and terminate them with extreme umbrage. Many of these operations function illegally as drug and human traffickers or at the minimum in the margins of the law through bogus fronts like charities.Political willingness in the Obama Administration for any kind of pre-strike preparations is unlikely based on past performance. The build up of forces and precautions like the ones outlined hear will probably not take place. Leaving Prime Minister Netanyahu twisting in the wind will be a PR nightmare for the Obama administration but that is what is likely to happen. It will be a clear acknowledgment that president Obama is blind to the evil in the harts of the Islamic leadership opposed to the nation of Israel. This will not only be unforgivable to the people of Israel but it will be unforgivable for the American and European people as well. There are two choices hear, Iran has nukes and holds the world hostage or they do not. If your president fails to acknowledge this as a grave danger then he has no right being a president. If a president fails to act on any pre-strike precautions then he is nothing more than a fool. If a president is not prepared to act decisively in this international chess game and take out some pawns and knights before going after the queen then he has no business on the worlds stage.