FCC boss: mobile wireless in peril from spectrum shortage

Speaking at a mobile wireless conference on Wednesday, Federal Communications Commission Chair Julius Genachowski warned that the wireless industry needs more spectrum and needs it fast.

"I believe that that the biggest threat to the future of mobile in America is the looming spectrum crisis," he told the crowd at CTIA, the Wireless Association's I.T. & Entertainment conference in San Diego. He predicted that total wireless consumption could grow from six petabytes a month last year to 400 by 2013—a petabyte being a thousand terrabytes. "So we must ask: what happens when every mobile user has an iPhone, a Palm Pre, a Blackberry Tour or whatever the next device is? What happens when we quadruple the number of subscribers with mobile broadband on their laptops or netbooks?"

"The short answer: we will need a lot more spectrum," Genachowski declared.

Caught short

The G-Man has got to be feeling good about mobile matters, given AT&T's announcement that it is going to allow VoIP apps like Skype to tap into its 3G network on the iPhone. The Commission's boss praised AT&T, but didn't take any credit for the decision at the CTIA conference. He didn't have to. The Open Internet Coalition, to which Skype belongs, sent us a statement congratulating both the FCC and AT&T for the move. "Clearly, in the face of new movement at the FCC they rethought a position which restricted consumer choice and wireless innovation," declared OIC's executive director Markham Erickson. "We applaud its decision to reverse course."

But that's yesterday's news. The mob of wireless lovers to whom Genachowski spoke were waiting for details about his direction on spectrum. The big carriers want more of it, while reform groups counter that the extant 450MHz should be more efficiently managed first, and the Chair's speech seemed to move in that direction for a while. He noted that recent FCC auctions, especially last year's huge 700 MHz sell off, tripled the amount of available commercial spectrum. Now the agency is looking at ways to help streamline its use via unlicensed devices, smart antennas, and femtocells.

Still, Genachowski conceded, that won't be enough. "Even with innovative spectrum policies and innovative new technologies, experts believe we are way too likely to be caught short," he acknowledged. "We have no choice. We must identify spectrum that can best be reinvested in mobile broadband." The Chair warned that that could take a while, but also promised to fast-track another CTIA concern, the accelerated licensing of cell phone towers.

Mum on neutrality

These pledges on spectrum and towers brought praise from CTIA President and CEO Steve Largent; they "will help the United States to continue to lead the world in wireless," Largent's press release declared. "We share the Chairman's commitment to ensuring every American has access to the best wireless products and services in the world." The statement did not comment on Genachowski's promise to implement net neutrality rules, or "a fair and common-sense framework to preserve an open Internet," as he put it at the event. The FCC will lay out this proposed framework at the agency's next Open Commission meeting, scheduled for Thursday, October 22.

"The goal of the proceeding will be to develop sensible rules of the road," Genachowski promised. "Rules clear enough to provide predictability and certainty, and flexible enough to anticipate and welcome ongoing technological evolution."

Still, the wireless industry has got to be at least a bit tweaked by Genachowski's urgent tone on the topic of the conference. "In my time as an investor and executive I saw mobile go from a futurist fantasy, to a nice-to-have part of a company’s game plan, to a must-have strategic priority," he observed. "Today every company in America—entertainment, commerce, news, you name it—knows it needs to have a mobile strategy."

And now we know that Genachowski has an iPhone. At the beginning of the talk he told the story of taking an evening stroll with his family and using an application called Star Walk. Point it up and you can gaze at the stars with a dynamic image guide. "After playing with it for a minute my 5-year-old daughter pointed to the sky and said: 'There’s Pegasus'."

The FCC's Chair celebrated the ubiquity of mobile wireless, up to a point. "People are connecting wirelessly to each other and to the Internet to conduct the daily business of life: find a job, discover new music, connect with old friends, read the news, tweet—wherever and whenever they want," he enthused.

"As long as they’re not driving."

Matthew Lasar
Matt writes for Ars Technica about media/technology history, intellectual property, the FCC, or the Internet in general. He teaches United States history and politics at the University of California at Santa Cruz. Emailmatthew.lasar@arstechnica.com//Twitter@matthewlasar