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Breaking Down the Mississippi Vote: Religious, but Pragmatic

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Breaking Down the Mississippi Vote: Religious, but Pragmatic

By Dalia Sussman March 13, 2012 9:56 pmMarch 13, 2012 9:56 pm

With a very conservative electorate and potentially the highest number of evangelical Christians in any Republican contest this year, Mississippi would seem to be a better demographic fit for Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich than for Mitt Romney.

Indeed, about half of voters say Mr. Romney’s positions on the issues are not conservative enough, while about a third say his positions are about right. Many more say Mr. Gingrich’s or Mr. Santorum’s positions are about right.

Yet Mr. Romney managed to stay competitive with Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich there partly because of the importance many voters placed on beating President Obama and the perception that Mr. Romney is the candidate best able to do that.

In addition, exit poll results show that neither Mr. Gingrich nor Mr. Santorum was the clear favorite among very conservative voters. About a third of them supported Mr. Santorum, while as many backed Mr. Gingrich. A quarter preferred Mr. Romney. Mr. Romney was backed by more voters who described themselves as only somewhat conservative or moderate.

Evangelical Christians, who accounted for about 8 in 10 voters, also divided their loyalties, with each of the top three candidates winning roughly a third of their vote. But Mr. Santorum edged out the others those who said it mattered a great deal that a candidate share their religious beliefs (nearly half of all voters).

About 4 in 10 voters said their top quality was electability, and they were more apt to favor Mr. Romney. About 2 in 10 voters said they were most looking for a candidate with strong moral values, while as many said they wanted a true conservative – both strong groups for Mr. Santorum. Mr. Gingrich ran best among the 2 in 10 voters most looking for someone with the right experience.

While Mississippi voters picked Mr. Romney as the candidate with the best chance of winning in November, Mr. Gingrich had an edge on the question of who best understands the problems of average Americans.

Mr. Gingrich ran stronger among married men than among married women; he trailed Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum among married women.

The top issue to most voters, as in all other contests, was the economy. More than a third of these voters supported Mr. Romney, while about 3 in 10 backed Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Santorum.

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