You Got Served: The Zone Read

Ted BartlettNov 8, 2011 12:45 PM

Happy Victory Tuesday, friends. I hope you’re ready for a Serving, because I’ve got one for you. I’m in last place in the picks competition, and a primary reason why is that I’m now 2-6 in picking Broncos games. (I had them losing to Green Bay, and beating Miami.) You can’t win them all, I guess, and I just don't seem to have a great feel for when the Broncos are going to play well. Maybe if I read the DP rather than Doug's parsing of their work, I might know if they "had a good week of practice."

Anyway, today we’re going to explore in detail why the Broncos beat the Raiders on Sunday. It was a total team win, as has been said, but more than that, I would say that it was the first time this season that the offense pulled its weight. Aside from a couple of missed throws by Tim Tebow and some penalties (I’m looking at you, Ryan Clady) it was a consistent and productive effort. Since offense is kind of my thing, I’m excited to spend some time talking about it. Ready… BEGIN!!

1. So, there’s this play called the Zone-Read that’s been getting some mention lately. Sometimes it’s not zone, and sometimes there’s no read, but in the spirit of keeping things simple, we’ll go with that name. This is what the basic play looks like:

I took that diagram from a Serving I did four weeks ago. There were two other plays off that action present in the article, and the Broncos have run variations of those as well. It’s a smart thing to do, to make plays look the same wherever possible, and it’s been done for about 100 years.

Since the Broncos have now widely adopted the shotgun run action (true Zone Read and otherwise), they’re doing it from a lot of different formational looks and personnel groupings. On one play, the slot WR will block down (as in my diagram), and on another, the DE will be left unblocked by design. One time, the line will be unbalanced, and the next time, it will be balanced.

Here’s an important thing to understand – this play works very frequently, and that’s why it’s so ubiquitous at the college level. You don’t see it as much in the NFL for only one reason, and that’s because teams are reluctant to get their QBs hit. The Titans consistently made this play work with Vince Young and Chris Johnson, and so too can the Broncos with Tim Tebow and Willis McGahee. In college, usually the preference is to get the QB in space, because there are a lot of running QBs, and in the NFL, the preference is to get the RB in space. In either case, you’re happy to take the other option if it’s there, and you like the spacing that the play construction dictates.

Example 1

I decided to focus heavily on this play and show you why it works. Yes, a team can sell out to defend it, but when that happens, they’re leaving something else open. Take a look at this screenshot, which comes from the Broncos’ first possession of the third quarter.

The Broncos have an unbalanced line with an extra OT (Chris Clark) on the right side, and trips to the right outside of him. Ryan Clady is the eligible TE to the left. The Raiders have eight men in the tackle box, including SS Tyvon Branch, who has backside contain responsibility on Tebow.

I digress for a moment to share with you a couple of quotes from our friends in Oakland. First, some eloquent thoughts from Tommy Kelly:

“They have been running the same thing since they put (Tebow) in there,” Kelly said. “They’re running that college (stuff), that zone (stuff). Read it, quarterback going to hold it. Man, we practiced that (stuff) all week. It’s not like they came out there with some new package or scheme. We ain’t seen nothing we ain’t been seeing. First half, we got off the field. Second half, we spit the bit out.”

“When we start the week we talk about potentially what can happen, what type of play it is, and that was the No. 1 football play for them with him,” Raiders coach Hue Jackson said. “We worked it. I watched us work it in practice; I watched us defend it in practice. Obviously it’s different in practice than it is in a game. Trust me, we had somebody for the quarterback, somebody for the (running) back. It didn’t happen right.”

That Jackson quote is why the Zone Read works. If you look at the screenshot, there are the eight guys in the box, and one CB at the line engaged with Matt Willis. This is from Nickel personnel because of the three WRs that the Broncos have on the field. The Broncos have six offensive linemen to block four defensive linemen and two linebackers, so already, you love that math. If a guy is specifically assigned to watch a player who didn’t get the ball, the offense has an advantage because that’s a wasted defender.

Then, the play starts. The Broncos get some initial push, and Tebow sees Branch (circled in Red) taking a wide approach, and staying home. He also sees that Clark has sealed the right edge, and that two Raider LBs and one DB (circled in Purple) acting like the Three Stooges sitting between the hashmarks, which is no-man’s-land against this play. Tebow hands to McGahee, and he gains five yards on the play.

Example 2

Here’s another screenshot, with a slightly different look:

The Broncos are in Big 11 personnel again, with Chris Clark as the nominal TE, and they’re 2 by 2 with the formation. Eric Decker (circled in Red) blocks down on the Right DE, and there are probably a couple of yards there, but since Decker is blocking down, Tebow's read is the eighth guy in the box. Michael Huff, who’s circled in Purple, is free, and he’s outside the hashmark. Handing the ball to McGahee is going to make that a one-on-one situation, and really a one-on-two, with another free LB behind Huff, circled in Green.

On the backside, Tebow sees the Left DE crashing, so he’s keeping the ball, and he’s going to get 12 yards on the play around the right edge. He knows he can beat that backside LB to the sideline, despite Peter King’s idiotic thought that he lacks quickness, so this is easy pickings.

Example 3

This is going to be the last play of the third quarter, just following the Chris Harris interception. Those two plays turned this football game, so I want to really focus on this play, and show how it came open.

In the initial alignment, we see that the Raiders aren’t even respecting the three WRs aligned in trips left, and they’re playing Base 4-3. All 11 defenders are in the picture, and Kamerion Wimbley (circled in Red) is the backside guy watching Tebow.

Here’s a view an instant after the snap:

The O-Line gets a huge hole opened play-side (in Purple), with Ryan Clady and Orlando Franklin (I’m pretty sure) crushing their men, and the free LB Aaron Curry (in Red) starting to overrun the play to the edge.

Here you see Franklin (in Red) disengaging from the defensive lineman he and Zane Beadles initially double-teamed, and hooking Curry, plus J.D. Walton (in Purple) sealing the backside Mike LB. That is a massive hole. What’s even more interesting is that there’s a mile of space to the right edge too, as shown with the Orange rectangle. Tebow might have had his own 60-yard TD on this play. Here’s how big the hole got in the end:

When a game changes in one play, that’s what it looks like. The Raiders defense was stressed to two areas, and in trying to defend both, defended neither. You can’t really call it a mistake by them, either, because the Broncos got the play blocked, and all 11 guys executed the play.

Example 4

The Broncos got the ball back with 3:55 to go and a seven-point lead. When analysts talk about four-minute offense, this is the classic example of what they’re talking about. Being able to run the ball a little bit is cool, but can you do it when the defense knows you’re going to do it? Can you get three or four 1st downs without throwing the ball?

This is first down of the series, and the Broncos go unbalanced Left with the same trips look. This is the same look they’ve been killing the Raiders on. Oakland has the box stacked, as they have throughout the game. The zone blocking of the Broncos is strong, and it’s six hats on six defenders moving left. Walton, especially, is burying his guy.

Tebow is reading the backside edge guy Kamerion Wimbley (in Red), as usual. Wimbley is too aggressive in crashing down. Secondarily, Curry (in Purple) is starting to pursue to the opposite side of the field because he seems to think that McGahee is getting the ball.

Tebow keeps the ball, and he sees a completely flat-footed Wimbley. Walton continues to bury his guy, and Kuper is at the second level, about to smash Curry. This is how big plays in the running game develop.

Here is where Tebow, who is actually very quick-footed for his size, easily outruns Wimbley to the edge, and takes off into green pasture. Notice how Kuper not only crushes his guy, but knocks him into Matt Giordano, who overran a lot of plays in this game, turning a 10-yard run into a 28-yard run.

By the way, I saw where some people were comparing Tebow to Bradlee Van Pelt in some comment sections. That’s beyond absurd. Tebow is a vastly better runner and thrower than Van Pelt was. He’s one of the best pure talents in the NFL at running with the ball, and if he can’t make it as a full-time QB, at a minimum, he can make a lot of big plays in the NFL getting the ball from a different position.

Example 5

Here we see 2nd and 2 from the Raiders 24-yard line, during the same four-minute offense situation. The Broncos are at a minimum working to make the Raiders use both of their timeouts and then run the clock down to a minute or so, while setting Matt Prater up for a clinching field goal. That would be a highly successful four-minute offense, right?

Well, that’s not what happened. Here, McGahee’s design is to run to the unbalanced right side along with the zone blocking action. The unblocked guy on the offense’s left is Aaron Curry, and he’s being careful, and getting deep into the backfield on Tebow. On the offense’s right, Wimbley is playing the edge, and Tyvon Branch has him backed up. Neither way initially seems to look great, so Tebow does the right thing and hands the ball off to McGahee. Get something, run the clock, and avoid the hit on the QB.

McGahee sees that Curry’s focused on Tebow personally, and not on simply containing the left edge. Remember Hue Jackson’s comment? We had a guy for Tebow and a guy for McGahee? The guy for Tebow is with Tebow, who doesn’t have the ball. McGahee cuts it back to the left side, where the DE is sealed by Ryan Clady, and he runs right underneath Curry. The guy for McGahee is out of the play, so how did that one work out Hue? Captain Obvious doesn't know this, but even when the defense plays with discipline and gets the edge set decently, there's still plays to be made inside in this run concept. The problem with it is that it's so spread out that there's going to be a hole somewhere.

What we're talking about here is the potential for something like Denver Broncos zone blocking football in 1998, but with an extra running option off of it. You get the defenders moving laterally, you read them, and you play off of what they do.

This play worked out as an easy 24-yard McGahee TD to ice the game. Curry has no chance, Giordano (poor guy) is running into the Umpire, and Demaryius Thomas is going to do a good enough job screening off the CB to get McGahee into the end zone untouched.

The Zone Read running concept can absolutely work on an ongoing basis in the NFL. There’s an answer to everything that a defense can do to stop it, and that’s why it’s so popular in college. Most colleges don’t have $100 million invested in their QBs, so they’re willing to let their guy get hit. I’m fine with Tebow taking a few hits in the running game, because he’s the strongest human being to ever play the position, and when he’s running with the football, he can protect himself better than he can standing stationary in the pocket. I don’t want him running the Wishbone option much, but this play is just fine, because Tebow is only keeping the ball when he’s got a lot of room.

I expect the Broncos to continue to wear this play out, and to begin showing a lot more variations off of this action. You want to sell out to set both edges? Fine, McGahee’s running right up the middle. You want to put nine in the tackle box and ignore the trips outside? Fine, have fun with that three-on-one bubble screen against a single CB. Trust me, there’s answer after answer.

2. As for Tebow’s throwing, it improved for the second straight week. There were some misses, but there were some really strong throws, and his decision-making was faster this week. I loved the recognition on the 29-yard pass to Demaryius Thomas and also on the TD pass to Royal. Tebow’s eyes were downfield on both plays, and he saw something open up that wasn’t initially there. That’s a step toward pro quarterbacking.

It’s also very notable to me that Tebow isn’t throwing the ball to the other team. Do you realize that his interception percentage is 1.03% this season? That’s one pick in 97 attempts, which is starting to get out of small sample territory. That’s a really excellent number, especially for such a young and inexperienced player. It’s second in the NFL just behind Alex Smith (two interceptions in 206 attempts, for a rate of 0.97%), and ahead of Aaron Rodgers (three interceptions in 265 attempts, for a rate of 1.13%).

I know, the kid misses some throws sometimes, but when’s the last time he threw one to the other team, whether it was caught or not? There was the one terrible throw in the Detroit game, but there’s been no decision-driven interceptions and few near-interceptions.

In other words, there’s really no significant luck to Tebow’s good number in this area, so it’s not like you can definitely say that he’ll regress to a mean. He’s legitimately doing a good job of protecting the football, and with only 15 picks in 995 college attempts, (a 1.5% interception rate), there’s evidence to suggest that ball security is an area of strength. Contrast Tebow’s 2011 results with those of Carson Palmer, who has thrown six interceptions in six quarters, and also threw four more passes that the Broncos had their hands on Sunday. He’s at a 10.7% interception rate, and he’s lucky that it’s not higher.

Rick Reilly just came on ESPN at 1:05 AM ET, and it forced me to turn off the TV. That guy is the human personification of awful.

Tebow’s pocket awareness was much improved from the Detroit game too, but it also helped that the offensive line did a much better job. I would say that this was their best all-around job of the season as a unit in protection.

This was still a mixed bag for Tebow, but rather than being 50% good and 50% bad, or 60%-40%, it was more like 80% good and 20% bad. There’s lots of room to grow, but we saw the beginnings of the best blueprint for having a strong offense with Tebow on Sunday. As the players all get better at running these plays, it’s going to be more and more effective.

3. Briefly, to something that was in Doug’s Lard this morning, Doug Farrar’s contention that use of the Zone Read hurts Tebow’s growth as a QB is patently absurd. It’s simply a running play that he’s good at executing, and that gives him an option to run the ball himself rather than handing off. The Broncos could run the ball that way, or some other way, but they're still going to run the ball sometimes. It has nothing to do with what the Broncos are trying to do in the passing game, aside from how the play action game sometimes looks. That doesn’t matter – at the root of everything, he’s faking a handoff, standing up, and looking for a receiver to throw the ball to. It’s unimportant if the RB came from behind Tebow or next to him. (Actually, a lot of play action Sunday came with Tebow under center, and a single I-back behind him.)

Farrar is a halfway-decent football writer, but this point he’s making is silly. It’s not affecting Tebow’s mechanics or thought process in a negative way. All it’s doing is leading to measurable success in the Broncos running game, which is in turn going to put Tebow in more manageable passing situations, and lead to more points scored, and a better chance at winning some games in the near-term. That will in turn buy Tebow more time to improve through playing in games, which is what he needs. I don’t know if Farrar is suggesting that the kid needs to have as many opportunities to drop back on 3rd and 14 as possible, or if he’s simply humping the mythical “everybody does it like this” NFL way, but whatever the case, he’s wrong.

4. Don’t look now, but the Broncos defense continues to be more good than bad, despite being undermanned in a few places. They made a lot of timely plays on Sunday, and on two of Carson Palmer’s three TD passes, he had to beat textbook-perfect coverage from Andre’ Goodman and D.J. Williams.

Williams, specifically, looks like he’s finally gotten serious about being a good player. I’ve been very critical of him over the years, and so have others here, but D.J.’s effort looks to be a lot more consistent, and he just looks more like he cares.

Like Gunny Highway said in the underrated Heartbreak Ridge, once you start looking like Marines, you’ll start feeling like Marines, and pretty soon you’ll start acting like Marines. When you get some players who start feeling enthusiasm for their defense, it’s amazing what starts happening. If the Broncos offense is able to keep improving, that can only help the defense play with the 60-minute tenacity that they need. They got a little demoralized against Detroit and didn’t come as hard later in the game, but against San Diego, Miami, and Oakland, they kept fighting and making the little plays, and they positioned the team to win in all three cases.

The personnel isn’t all there yet, but regardless of the direction the Broncos go with the QB next season, the defense is clearly on the right track, and another player acquisition cycle is going to help that process. With some solid QB play from somebody, this defense is quickly going to be good enough to compete for an AFC West championship. I’m glad that John Elway is calling this a three-year rebuilding job, but I don’t actually think it will take that long.

5. Finally, I had occasion to watch a lot of Matt Barkley last Thursday night, and I came away very impressed. I saw him in person at Notre Dame in 2009, and I remember thinking that his arm looked a little stronger to me then than it does now, but it’s still plenty good enough now, and he’s grown into a much better all-around QB since his freshman year.

Barkley reminds me a bit of Aaron Rodgers, because while he isn’t a Tebow or Newton as an athlete, he’s sneaky athletic, and he’s able to maintain his balance and throwing readiness very well when he runs. Also like Rodgers, Barkley has outstanding anticipation and accuracy with the ball. He throws to spots and puts the ball right on the spot where it needs to be. You can tell that he’s tremendously well-coached, and I see him as being just behind Andrew Luck, with the difference between the two being really minimal. It’s not like Luck is Matthew Stafford and Barkley is Mark Sanchez; it’s more like the difference between Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. Each is really good, and you can’t go wrong with either guy.

I’ll keep looking at QBs as the season goes on, to keep the bases covered. I’d really like to see Ryan Tannehill, but I can’t seem to get a Texas A&M game here in Cleveland. Stay tuned for future Servings as time goes on. That’s all I have for today, friends. Have a great rest of the week, and I’ll see you Friday for some Chiefs Digestion.

1. I’m not in the arguing business, I’m in the saying what I think business.
2. I get my information from my eyes.

The play shown in your screenshot (at the 6:13 mark of the 3rd quarter) was a handoff to McGahee for a 2 yard gain.

Tebow did run for 12 yards on the very next play, but that was from a snap taken under center on a designed pass play, where Tebow couldn&#8217t find anyone open, so he pulled it down and scrambled.

Posted by vvps on 2011-12-01 00:51:53

Great article. Hat is off to you.

As far as impact people in the front Seven. Get a stud DT to play with Bunkley and another Thomas tyke to use as Backup. And one more top flight DE and uou would be surprise at how much better the LB corp becomes.

Mays or Irving just may be the guy we are looking for.

As for DJ I&#8217ve noticed better play from him but still not at the pay level he gets IMO.

The key to any of the great Defenses is LOS play. Great run stuffers and guys that can get after the QB. We have to get one quality stud DT this offseason, resign Bunkley and Thomas and then two years from now get another DT to replace or give Bunkey relief as his he has had some wear and tear on that body playing against DaL, was and NYG six games a year.

The good DLs we have faced this year the ones that gave us fits DRESSED NINE in each of the games.

Not even talking about the extra couple of spares sitting on the shelve waiting on someone to need a few weeks off for healing a boo boo.

Right now we have ZIP past Thomas, Bunkley, Ayers and Doom in the way of quality. No starters in the rest of that bunch maybe not even backups on a good team.

Those teams that win consistently have great play consistently at the LOS.

We all know that is it football 101 yet have been hood winked for over a decade into thinking a couple of studs at the skill positions are going to win the brass ring.

I beleive that the smart fan knows this. And hopefully will push the FO to make those changes.

As for Tebow looks like we have a keeper.

Bump his completion % a bit and he will be a force to be reckoned with.

Seem to remember when Walsh set up the WCO, when Mikey did the ZBS loads of folks scoffed at whether it would work.

Time will tell if this scheme will work, which I think it will as the running will set up the passing game both short and long.

May never be GB good but neither has PITs been great. Well atleast till this year just maybe it has taken Ben and the OC this long to make him elite.

Posted by lonestar on 2011-11-09 18:46:27

Yeah! and by that time, tebow will have learned how to be a real QB.

we&#8217ll be ready to compete for championships for the next decade!

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-09 06:05:04

@Alex: Von Miller, Te&#8217o and Kuechly? We&#8217d have the youngest, meanest linebackers in the league. Pick up a CB in the third and the rebuild on defense would be most of the way there. DT in 2013.

Posted by Royalwithcheese on 2011-11-09 05:36:11

@royalwithcheese #90

How sick would te&#8217o in round 1 and kuechly in rd 2 as a will be?

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-09 05:10:14

the good and the bad

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-09 05:08:38

the more I watch him, the more zach brown reminds me of DJ Williams.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-09 05:08:22

Just catching up on the response to Dilfer&#8217s comments. Yes, it would be helpful to know exactly what he saw on those eight &#8220missess.&#8221 How does Dilfer know the player he saw was definitively TT&#8217s first read? What sort of pressure was coming on the play? How did the play actually end up for Denver? And so on. It&#8217s just one assessment, but one I thought I would share here. Dilfer&#8217s a former QB, so he knows a little more about playing the position than a stoge like Hoge.

Turning to the draft ... Based on projections I&#8217ve seen, Burfict and Te&#8217o are going to be gone in the top 20. The only thing that could keep Burfict from going that high are character concerns. On the other hand, I could see Kuechly sliding to the second round based on his lack of measurables, at which point he would be a great value.

Coples is having a down season and was more productive rushing the passer last year from the DT position - this concerns me in terms of his ability to produce at the next level as a DE.

Zach Brown is a great athlete, but his instincts and toughness have been questioned. I don&#8217t see him as a top 15 pick.

Thompson is a very good DT, especially against the run. But he provides very little in terms of pass rush and has limited upside - similar to Bunkley. Would be a safe pick, not an inspired one.

I&#8217d be happy with either of the top two CBs, the top two MLBs or maybe the best RT on the board. I&#8217ll be sure to let EFX know of my midseason assessment.

Posted by Royalwithcheese on 2011-11-09 04:27:21

Sterto,

Yeah, Eddie Royal was supposedly a decoy on his TD catch. Dilfer probably called that one of the 8 instances.

Posted by magster on 2011-11-09 03:52:33

Alex, Mikes have never really been given much weight in drafts. I&#8217m not sure why considering how we see how important it can be on our defense.

I see Burfict a bit like Maualuga. I and others really wanted Rey, but it turns out he wasn&#8217t as flash (solid, but not great). Burfict is tenacious yet reckless. His character is question, so I would not be surprised if he fell into the 2nd rd - maybe not far enough for us. As for Z Miller, the more talent we have on defense the better we&#8217ll be. And I mean that no matter what position, if he a top tier athlete at that position, it bodes well for the team to incrementally improve. And how cool would it be to have Miller and Miller Lite in the LB corps. The Champagne of LBs!

RSH, I would not usually recommend drafting a RB, but if we think we can get an Adrian Peterson type runner (strong, fast, durable and can catch) then we should consider him. McGahee&#8217s health is my worry. The draft is not that deep for RBs either IMO. I do see better use, but if Richardson is BPA when we draft I hope we don&#8217t avoid him just b/c he&#8217s a RB. BTW, I think plenty of teams would be calling for the opportunity to move and get him, so let&#8217s hope we have that kind of a dilemma.

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-11-09 03:51:21

I don&#8217t think the Broncos should take a running back in the first round&#8212even if Richardson is available when the Broncos select. Moreno was supposedly a can&#8217t miss prospect, and although he&#8217s been serviceable, and shown flashes, he hasn&#8217t lived up to his selection slot.

I&#8217d much rather get an elite defensive tackle or cornerback early on.

Posted by RSH on 2011-11-09 03:06:54

royal@79: hard to believe given his total of 11 incompletions, unless dilfer is also counting other guys that were open on pass completions. which would be unfair. not that that would stop him.

Posted by sterto on 2011-11-09 02:58:59

Great job Ted.

i believe the zone read actally helps Tebow&#8217s dvelopment and does not hinder it.

Always love the article.

Posted by Boydy2669 on 2011-11-09 02:43:07

@O and B

As much as I would love it if Burfict and te&#8217o fell to round 2, i think they&#8217ll be gone in the top 25 picks. how recent are those grades?

IMO, keuchly is great in the passing game, but doesn&#8217t have the downhill capabilities in the running game that burfict and te&#8217o do. he looks like more of a will at the NFL level to my eyes. I also really like Brown as a will, but I think mike is a little more important to our defense right now. DJ as an every down will is more passible than DJ as an every down mike. (right now, DJ plays will on running downs and mike on passing downs with mays coming out and WW going in at will)

Coples is incredible, but IMO, he&#8217ll be a top 5-7 pick.

I really like those CB&#8217s. I like Dre a little better because he&#8217s more physical in the running game (reminds me of champ that way), but both have excellent coverage skills.

Thompson looks good too! good find. i hadn&#8217t really checked him out yet. doesn&#8217t look like he beats the double team to make a play on the ball a lot, but he certainly draws it and holds his ground against it, freeing up his teammates to make plays. I don&#8217t think this is the strongest class for DT (especially compared to the past 2 years), but there are still a few pretty good players here.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-09 02:17:18

Royal, I have a feeling Dilfer wants to ensure his incessant rhetoric on 15 rings true, even if 15 succeeds. If 15 does succeed, Dilfer will lean on the &#8220he doesn&#8217t play the QB in a way were accustomed to and won&#8217t ever play it that way, so basically I was right and he wasn&#8217t able to succeed as a QB - he&#8217s just not playing QB as we know it&#8221.

As far as the draft, I&#8217m guessing we may end up in the 12-18 range (7-8 wins).

I think Trent Richardson will be gone - I think he&#8217s got some AP in him (as Brooks? mentioned in the Lard). I think he will be very good as a pro and would have made our offense ridiculous.

Since Richardson&#8217s gone, I&#8217d choose from:

Zach Brown (WLB) - freak athlete

Quentin Coples (DE) - Need another pass rusher in our rotation

Luke Kuechly (MLB)

Brandon Thompson (DT)

Morris Clairborne (CB)

Dre Kirkpatrick (CB)

Te&#8217o and Burfict would be great 2nd picks if they are around. Neither are favorites of NFLDraftScout.com as 1st rounders.

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-11-09 01:42:50

that said, dilfer also probably knows more about it that I do. <img alt="wink" height="19" src="http://www.singernet.com/images/smileys/wink.gif" style="border:0;" width="19">

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-09 01:34:09

Also, on dilfer&#8217s analysis:

Because dilfer is a former NFL QB, I would expect his analysis to exceptionally critical of QB play. I&#8217d like to know how Tebow missed those plays and why. did he overthrow or underthrow? did he not see an open receiver? did he make the wrong read? Did he make the right read but hesitate because he didn&#8217t trust it, screwing up the timing of the play? how open were these receivers? Did the OL protection hold up on those plays?

the point is that there are many factors that go into each and every passing play that could cause it to fail. If you just say &#8220tebow missed 8 open recievers that should have been his first read&#8221 it paints a pretty grim picture. from my own analysis, I don&#8217t really feel like that sort of ineptitude was what we saw from #15 on sunday.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-09 01:32:28

@ Joe Plummer #78

Generally, I&#8217d agree with you, but if you can add a polished, pro-ready weapon like CJ at a cost lower than the Tennessee deal (which would have to be voided for him to even come available) wouldn&#8217t you? Wasn&#8217t fox ready to do just that last year for D&#8217Angelo Williams, who although more familiar with fox&#8217s system in CAR is probably a lesser talent than johnson? I guess it would just come down to how much CJ wants (assuming he even becomes available). this situation would also assume that CJ knows and understands these things about his own game and would want to play with Tebow to further his own success. but who knows? right now this is still a total fantasy situation anyway.

@royalwithcheese #79

i think you take that both of those ways. This is why Elway and Fox keep saying that tebow&#8217s a great football player but has a long way to go toward becoming a great passer. The lucky thing for the broncos is that they can still be competitive in the meantime with this awesome running game. <img alt="grin" height="19" src="http://www.singernet.com/images/smileys/grin.gif" style="border:0;" width="19">

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-09 01:25:05

Not to rain on everybody&#8217s parade, but Dilfer over at ESPN is going over the film and says that TT missed (didn&#8217t see) wide open receivers at least eight times - and that they were his first read each time. For an ESPN analyst, I&#8217ve found Dilfer to be fairly reasoned in his analysis.

I guess you can take his analysis one of two ways: 1. his current ability as a passer is extremely limited - maybe worse than we thought. Or 2. If he can improve just a little bit by identifying and delivering the ball to these guys, this offense could be dangerous.

Posted by Royalwithcheese on 2011-11-09 00:58:51

Alex #77, nice find there on the CJ2K analysis. Reading this makes me think McGahee&#8217s stats are going to explode this year too, a nice perk from playing with Tebow. If McGahee scrambles again for over 100 yards against KC&#8217s better-than-Oakland run defense, certainly lends some credence to the belief that the QB makes the RB, at least to some degree.

If by some stroke of luck (how&#8217s that for a double entendre?!) Tebow is our QB next year, I agree with some of the other comments that we should be able to pick up a RB later in the draft with experience running the zone read. No need to break the bank for CJ.

Posted by JoePlummer on 2011-11-09 00:57:21

an interesting article with respect to the CJ2k discussion we were having earlier. obviously, there are more factors at play than who is at QB that make a difference in Johnson&#8217s ypg, so this isn&#8217t a pure and accurate statistical analysis. that said, these numbers are pretty staggering:

@Alex: If EFX really feel that Burfict or Te&#8217o are elite, once-in-a-decade type talents, then I&#8217m all for going MLB, even if that means Irving doesn&#8217t get a shot or moves to WLB.

@Ace: I see the reasoning in taking someone like Reiff - it makes perfect sense and really upgrades two positions at one. Hard to argue that point. The only questions is, is it the most glaring need right now?

When looking at both of these options, the Broncos are going to be in a great position to let the draft come to them, provided they don&#8217t go for a QB. Other teams will be jockeying to move up - whether for a QB, Richardson or someone else - and Denver really is in a position to take BPA.

Unless they fall in love with someone, they can sit back, let the draft take shape and see what happens when they&#8217re on the clock. I would love to see them trade back a few slots, pick up an extra third-rounder, and then take BPA, whether that&#8217s at MLB, CB (my preference) or RT. Of course, if a presumed elite talent at a different position - Blackmon, for instance - drops to them then they&#8217ll have a real decision to make.

Posted by Royalwithcheese on 2011-11-09 00:18:20

My statement in #33 shows I&#8217m in agreement about MLB. Premier DTs like Raji, Suh et. al. takes a top 10 pick. Denver right now has pick 12 and we are talking about them improving in the second half. I&#8217m not too familiar with Burfict or Te&#8217o but my question would be, Can they improve the pass defense. The run defense is in the top quarter of the league so if these guys aren&#8217t going to improve the pass defense, I&#8217d rather go with a CB. Goody has already shown that he is not a good fit for this defense and is along with weak safety play is why Denver is among the worst in pass defense. Although I&#8217d expect Moore and Carter to be much better with an offseason of adjustment.

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-11-09 00:03:34

as for DT&#8217s I really like Alemeda Ta&#8217amu this year. he&#8217s big, physical and quick. he has a chance to be a guy like that.

I still don&#8217t think that those type of run stuffing DT&#8217s are as rare (a guy with potential to be that comes out every 2-3 years) as an elite LB (there hasn&#8217t been one like this since patrick willis) and there are two guys who look like that this year.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 23:52:37

@out of your element

you may be right about raji. he just came to mind for me due to his play in the playoffs last year.

I&#8217m not sure how PFF&#8217s rankings are determined, but do they account for freeing up teammates by drawing double teams? do they account for holding up at the point of attack in the running game? or is it all about making tackles?

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 23:49:29

I didn&#8217t complete my thought re: BPA.

I know there are more obvious areas of weakness, but name one area of our team that you honestly think a stud player wouldn&#8217t improve our team? Left tackle. Center? Punter/Kicker? But everything else seems like open game to me. Even WR could use a Megatron&#8230

Posted by OutOfYourElement on 2011-11-08 23:45:22

#63 - regarding DTs, didn&#8217t PFF have a ranking of DTs, and Bunkley and Thomas ranked higher than Raji? Their rankings suggest that our DTs are actually performing well.

Seemed to me last draft, EFX went best player available where possible. If its true that these LBs are once in a decade talents, I would be shocked to see us pass. I also wouldn&#8217t be shocked to see EFX select a player that is not a &#8216need&#8217 position. If (as Elway states) this is a three year project, simply taking best player available can have a really nice long term effect on a team&#8230

Posted by OutOfYourElement on 2011-11-08 23:37:51

I know that there&#8217s not a lot of Beadles love out there, and Franklin is definitely more accomplished as a run-blocker than a pass protector.

Keep in mind though that neither guy had an offseason program to speak of. Beadles looks like he could stand some quality time with Greek, and Franklin definitely needs some technique work. They should get that this offseason.

My point is I don&#8217t know that I would be super-anxious to take a RT in the first round. As a Utah fan I watched Beadles quite a bit and I think he&#8217s better than what he&#8217s showing. Franklin should be light years better with an offseason under him to go along with the playing time.

My draft wish list would be for Burfict, Te&#8217o, or a CB.

Posted by QDoc on 2011-11-08 23:37:21

man, between ted&#8217s fantastic breakdown and all the reasoned commentary (and the cj observations) ... this was a classic IAOFM entry.

Posted by sterto on 2011-11-08 23:36:29

@acemagoo

I like that plan, I just think that we should execute it with our 2013 1st round pick (because of the LB&#8217s available in the 2012 draft class) and try to find an FA stopgap in the meantime.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 23:31:26

Thanks, Alex. Irving can play WLB, too. So if DEN goes MLB in the draft Irving could still find a place in the lineup. My preference is to draft a RT if he&#8217s the BPA. I&#8217ve said it before but if you do that and move Franklin to LG and Beadles to the backup swing guard you&#8217re solidifying the entire line with one pick.

Posted by acemagoo2001 on 2011-11-08 23:23:01

My point is that I think you&#8217ll be able to find a RT up to the level of the guys in this draft in 2013 if Franklin and Beadles don&#8217t work out. I don&#8217t think you&#8217re going to find a LB like Burfict or Te&#8217o in 2013 if Irving fails.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 23:15:40

shoot! in #63 I got talking and didn&#8217t go back to explain where i digressed from royal and herc&#8230

where is disagree with you guys is that looking at the strengths and weaknesses of this draft class, there are some pretty special LB&#8217s this time out (the kind that don&#8217t come along every year). While I&#8217d like to give Irving a chance to show us something, I think it&#8217s be foolish to pass on these guys for his sake because we won&#8217t be able to get a MLB like them in the draft next year.

i don&#8217t see those kind of once-every-few-years type of talents on the OL and at DT in this draft class.

there may be some at CB this year, though.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 23:12:52

@ acemagoo

agreed. and very well said.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 23:08:30

@herc and royal w/c

you guys nailed my response on the head (except for a few details)

MLB is the biggest area of need in the front 7 and finding a stud for that position would go a long way toward making our defense elite.

Apparently, DJ Williams has been playing a lot better this year. I&#8217ll take the Ted, Dug, Doc and TJ&#8217s words for it although I haven&#8217t studied this myself. Let&#8217s not forget, though that until very recently, he was thought to be part of the problem, not the solution.

Our DT&#8217s are playing well, but again, I think even our best guys at those positions are good but not great players. Wouldn&#8217t you like to add a BJ Raji or a Haloti Ngata type elite DT to our existing rotation? I&#8217m not arguing that we should dump bunkley, thomas or mcbean, but adding another guy to the top of that rotation makes each spot in the whole rotation stronger. (think of it like SP&#8217s in baseball: adding an ace to the top of our rotation pushes your best guy to the #2 slot which means he&#8217ll match up against other teams&#8217 #2 starters in a playoff series giving him a better chance of winning his game. original #2 becomes the #3, #3 becomes #4 and so on.) adding an elite DT who consistently draws double teams means that bunkley or thomas or whoever is playing next to him (along with your DE&#8217s and LB&#8217s) is freed up to make more plays.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 23:06:01

MLB and WLB are two positions in the front seven we need to upgrade. DJ is playing better of late but he&#8217s not worth his contract. More importantly, if we had a 3-down MLB we&#8217d be better against the run in nickel packages and be able to mix up LB blitzes and coverages a little more creatively.

Posted by acemagoo2001 on 2011-11-08 23:04:07

So, are we &#8220kool-aid&#8221 Bronco fans recognizing the possible emergence of the next generation football strategy? One that takes advantage of defenses that&#8217ve evolved to defend against the current-day offenses? Could it really be?

this stuff was better yesterday, but that was against Michael Bush, who doesn&#8217t have McFadden&#8217s speed. i want a MLB who can run sideline to sideline with the Darren McFadden&#8217s of the NFL.

Plays like the ones TJ describes in the article (and some worse than those) have been the norm against our defense since Al Wilson&#8217s injury in 2006. Joe Mays is a solid starter (would be an even better backup), but I&#8217d love to see a real playmaker (someone with the potential to join the lineage of great MLBs of the modern era like like Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, or Patrick Willis) in the middle of our defense.

There are a couple of LBs in this draft class (Vontaze Burfict and Manti Te&#8217o) who are the kinds of LBs that don&#8217t come along every year. i think now&#8217s the time to find our guy at mike.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 22:50:54

@Sleepy: I know your question in #52 wasn&#8217t directed toward me, but it&#8217s clear that we need to upgrade at MLB. I would also like to see a more disruptive force at DT to go along with Bunkley. There aren&#8217t any elite DTs in this class, but Burfit and Teo would be upgrades at MLB. The questions is whether EFX want to give Irving a shot next year before moving on. I would guess they will, which is why barring a QB selection, I think they go CB. OT is tempting, but there it also comes down to EFX giving up on a draft pick (Franklin) from the previous year. Gotta give the young guys at least two years to know what you&#8217ve got. If Franklin and Irving bomb in year 2, those positions will be high on the list heading into 2013.

Posted by Royalwithcheese on 2011-11-08 22:50:43

@ Sleepy - I think you&#8217re right, I can&#8217t really think of a guy in the front 7 I&#8217d like to replace as a starter, although that&#8217s assuming we get Bunkley and Thomas re-signed. And I think there may be room for improvement at MLB, but I don&#8217t know if that&#8217s where you want to spend your #1 pick. I do think that we could use more depth on the D-line, but that&#8217s where the 2nd through 4th round picks come in handy. I think the decision to draft a RT in the first round will depend on how Franklin improves in his pass protection, and to a lesser extend how Beadles performs at LG. The coaches are going to have to sit down and really study the film and go one way or the other, but either way I&#8217d like to see more depth on the O-line as well. If that means moving Franklin inside and making Beadles more of a utility backup guy, that would probably work OK. But my preference would be to draft a corner back high and pick up the OL dept in the middle rounds, becuase i think corner back is going to become a major need fairly quickly here as Goodman ages (and to a lesser extent as Bailey ages, but I think he&#8217s got a few years in him still).

Posted by Hercules Rockefeller on 2011-11-08 22:48:27

@super7 #55

I totally agree. I must admit to being a little excited about potentially being a team that leads the charge for change as opposed to the team that finally adopts it before the next cycle begins.

Posted by BroncoPH on 2011-11-08 22:40:43

Ted, Barkley impressed me with how quickly the ball can come out as well as his intermediate to deep accuracy (15 yards or deeper). If a player gets behind the secondary, he won&#8217t miss. I question his consistency in the short-to intermediate range (5-15 yards) which is the most crowded part of he filed. I didn&#8217t watch closely enough to determine if USC was avoiding those passes or if they just weren&#8217t open as much, but he also threw a lazy INT in that range too. That said, I think there is a meaningful range between Luck and Barkley, but I still think that Barkley should be drafted in the top 5 or so picks. He&#8217s far better than Sanchez was at USC.

Regarding people downplaying the success of the &#8216zone-read&#8217 offense. It&#8217s a &#8220pu-pu the new thing&#8221 deal in the NFL. Always has been. The truth is that, in the NFL, new stuff doesn&#8217t usually last. But sometimes it does. At least 2/3rds of the offenses in the NFL run some type of spread offense. But back in the late 1980&#8217s & early 1990&#8217s, all of the pundits thought that Jerry Glanville&#8217s Red-Gun (Run-n-Shoot) offense was a gimmick. Well, turns out ol&#8217 Jerry knew exactly what he was doing. The transformation of the NFL offenses in the last 15 years is downright unbelievable. The Rams & The Greatest Show on Turf may have set the stage, and the Pats in 2007 really had it figured out, but the Packers of late have really perfected it.

The NFL is a cyclical beast. The offenses all look the same, then change. The defenses go from 4-3s to 3-4s and back and back again. Everybody runs the Tampa 2, then nobody runs the Tampa 2. Nobody uses fullbacks, then everybody uses fullbacks.

Posted by super7 on 2011-11-08 22:37:03

@David - Thanks for the info. I certainly didn&#8217t mean to come across as complaining&#8230more of wondering why such amazing content wasn&#8217t displayed with better interactivity for readers. Glad to hear enhancements are in the works. I know these things take time. Thanks for responding to my whine of the day.

Posted by JoePlummer on 2011-11-08 22:24:48

For all the talk about how Tim is absolutely not what Fox wants at qb - could Fox in fact have found the ideal qb for his system? One that is not only okay with a run-focused offense in a pass-focused world, but one that EXCELS at it and makes it better? 300 yards rushing against an often stacked box? Amazing. It may be from shotgun, and not from under center, but what the heck, it&#8217s fun to watch.

Here&#8217s hoping this read-option game continues to be successful while 15 finds a comfort zone with the pro passing game - Foxball has never been so exciting! Kool-aid has never tasted so good!

Posted by penguinman831 on 2011-11-08 22:22:55

@Alex

What starter on the front 7 do you think needs replaced with a playmaker? My preference in the 1st round is a Tackle. 2 years in a row Denver has selected Tackles in the 2nd round and came away with good Guards. If you want a good Tackle through the draft you&#8217ll have to draft him in the 1st round. Riley Reiff seems like he will be there when Denver picks.

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-11-08 22:18:10

@JoePlummer - the site&#8217s infrastructure is solid. Commenting is very basic, and something we&#8217re changing soon (possibly very soon); also, we&#8217ll have a &#8220real&#8221 design and more features, but the underlying architecture is great, and working on it is why we&#8217ve been taking our time, making sure everything is properly in place for when we expand. <&#8212run-on sentence (we won&#8217t be implementing grammar checks)

Posted by David Singer on 2011-11-08 22:18:06

@John H. - Yes, I can see how the threat of Tebow&#8217s running helped McGahee. But I don&#8217t want to take anything away from McGahee: Another big reason he was successful was because of McGahee. He looked good because he is good - which is why he still was drafted in the first round, despite his severe injury.

Posted by LarryB on 2011-11-08 22:10:11

McGahee&#8217s numbers really do tell you the impact of Tim Tebow in the game. Because the defense has to account for him, McGahee is running wild - in fact, it is quite possible ANY decent RB would run wild. McGahee has been on the decline for a number of years now which is one of the reasons he was available. The fact that he looked like Terrell Davis last weekend really tells you something.

Posted by John Hilton on 2011-11-08 22:05:14

Screen shots definitely help, because you can see how the defenders are reacting (in this case, over reacting), where they get caught flat footed, the progression the interior O-linemen were making into the second level of the defense, etc.

In this case, what I see is not just that the raiders played an undisciplined game, but rather that they simply didn&#8217t have an answer to the zone read by the end of the game and started over-reacting. There&#8217s several shots where you can see guys playing back on their heels, taking overly aggressive angles, etc. We used to see defenses look like this back in the day when Shanahan got in a groove with his playcalling and started toying with the opposing defense (more recently, we saw our own defense look like this against Green Bay - I&#8217ve got to say it looks better from this perspective)

In my opinion, that tells me that this is the sort of offense that can be successful against other teams, if it&#8217s executed properly and if they keep adding wrinkles to keep opposing D coordinators honest. earlier in the year it didn&#8217t seem that the O-line was playing well enough to make it happen, but this weekend it did. Only time will tell whether they can build on this or not, but I&#8217m cautiously optimistic.

Posted by Hercules Rockefeller on 2011-11-08 22:05:04

Thanks, Ted, for helping me to understand the zone read a bit more. I can now go back and review the game a bit more intelligently.

BTW, have you seen any of Nick Foles? If you have, what is your impression?

Posted by LarryB on 2011-11-08 22:04:13

The IAOFM writers are awesome and innovative, but this site&#8217s infrastructure is from the stone age. The site is big enough now that it really needs a face lift in the worst way, not only for aesthetics but also to improve the social/community features for readers.

If your comment doesn&#8217t initially appear after you post it&#8217s because the old page w/o your comment is still in your browser&#8217s cache and the browser didn&#8217t refresh your page view after you posted your comment.

There are workarounds to clear the cache, but really the fix is to design the site using more modern technology like AJAX/Java (MHR uses this), or a host of other solutions.

I bet a modest fundraiser or sponsorship could generate sufficient funds to cover the cost of an upgrade. Web development is dirt cheap these days. I know I&#8217d be willing to pitch in&#8230

Posted by JoePlummer on 2011-11-08 22:01:29

Keep in mind we need a QB, even if Tebow is the starter. Orton and Quinn are gone next year. Weber is likely the third option. The question just becomes what round do we draft a QB in?

Great write up Ted. I like the new screen shots - much better than the x&#8217s and o&#8217s!

Posted by OutOfYourElement on 2011-11-08 21:18:01

haha dammit! that keeps happening. #42 didn&#8217t show up the first time so i rewrote it and then posted it to find that #42"s there and it&#8217s now #43.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 20:55:04

@broncoph#41

Yeah. me too. this is the first time I&#8217ve ever heard of a contract being structured that way. I only found out about it because I looked up info on Johnson.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 20:53:51

@#41

yeah. me too. this is the first I&#8217m hearing of a contract being structured that way. I only found that after I started looking at Chris Johnson.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 20:52:33

@Alex #39

Great article. I wasn&#8217t aware of that breakdown. To your knowledge is that true of a lot of contracts? They are guaranteed only in case of injury and not declining performance? It makes a lot of sense but that&#8217s a new concept to me. I&#8217ve always thought guaranteed was&#8230 well, guaranteed.

he may get cut. I agree that he&#8217s probably not he best move at that money, but it may not take a similar contract to sign him after he has what most will view as a bad year.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 20:41:51

@sleepy&#8212I wouldn&#8217t say we have holes all over the defense, but I would say that we have a lot of average starters/transitional players in many places where we could have playmakers.

I&#8217d be in support of best athlete/playmaker available on the defensive side of the ball as my ideal draft strategy.

my 1st round wishlist looks like this:

in no particular order (that&#8217s for EFX and Dennis Allen to decide):

Vontaze Burfict, Manti Te&#8217o, Dre Kirkpatrick, Jerel Worthy, Alemeda Ta&#8217amu&#8212(honorable mention morris Claiborne - he&#8217s great in coverage and has excellent ball skills, but isn&#8217t as physical as Kirkpatrick is in the run game)

I don&#8217t know which of these players Fox/Allen think fit best with our current talent and their ideal defensive scheme, but I really like the skills these guys have shown in their college tape. for my money, these are the guys that I&#8217ve seen who have really separated themselves as the elite playmakers in this draft class. EFX should pick whomever they think can make the biggest impact for the broncos D.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 20:37:00

Forgot to mention with Spiller you get a 2-for-1 on roster management since he can be used in the ST return game. I like Cosby but at this point he&#8217s just a specialist.

Posted by acemagoo2001 on 2011-11-08 20:35:52

BTW, it looked to me like Clark #75 also played a very good game. A backup OL?!! Hooray. Looking forward to Doc&#8217s breakdown of the OL.

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-11-08 20:31:31

Great write-up, Ted. I imagine you happily slotted extra time in your crazy schedule to write this one.

Since the Kool-Aid is pouring like crazy, I have to say that I love this. Here we go with the emotional roller-coaster of our team. At least, we beat a division rival so the rest of the football world can let us enjoy.

I was surprised I didn&#8217t catch Franklin playing LT and Clady pushed out to TE when we went left side heavy. Is that the first time we did that? If so, that is spectacular. Three starting-caliber 310+lbs OL dominating the left side - ignoring the brilliant play of Walton. I wonder if Magadu had some input on that design? Great innovation using a Clark to replace Big O at RT instead of using Clark as the TE next to Clady. Brilliant.

There are several RBs that seem perfect to run the Zone Read with 15. I think Trent Richardson would be unbelievable in that role, but he would cost us a #1 pick while we still have a viable #1 RB in McGahee, but still&#8230

I like CJ2K, but he&#8217ll want $$. CJ Spiller is an interesting player. Love the hope we have.

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-11-08 20:27:32

@Alex As much as I would love to see a speedster like CJ as a Bronco, I would have to think he is too expensive at 30 million guaranteed. I don&#8217t know if there is a team out there that wants CJ for that kind of money (unless the Titans were able to eat some of his contract).

Although, I will say that as we continue to build through the draft we do have a few years of enjoying inexpensive contracts so maybe, just maybe, CJ&#8217s contract wouldn&#8217t kill our cap space as much as it sounds like it could. (I admit I know little about cap space economics in the new CBA so I bring that point up only because 30 million guaranteed sounds like A LOT of cap space. I have no facts.)

Still, I&#8217m excited to see what we have in McGahee right now.

Even furthermore, I&#8217m excited to see Tebow expand his passing repertoire using spread formations and really putting a kink in defensive planning.

Posted by BroncoPH on 2011-11-08 20:24:17

@Alex Cream

Denver&#8217s defense is 7th in avg yards per rush. They are 30th in Avg yards per pass. If Tebow and the offense comes around, I would say Denver needs a CB early. Otherwise, the offense is in just as much need as the defense. The talk that Denver has holes all over the defense isn&#8217t true. The safeties need some experience and training. Maybe an upgrade at middle linebacker but that&#8217s not going to come in the draft. I think Denver has a need at RCB and RT other than that its best athlete available.

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-11-08 20:21:13

@jtomasik - I never thought McCoy and Fox weren&#8217t trying to put him in a place to succeed - it was obvious they were trying. It just wasn&#8217t obvious that they knew how to do it - which was surprising because McCoy knew how in stretches last year and almost all of Tebow&#8217s success came out of running an offense like this.

My issue was that they weren&#8217t letting him pass in situations that he should be passing out of and weren&#8217t running this type of an offense. If you watch the 2nd half of the Texans game last year everything was setup by this zone read concept where the ends had to freeze because of the threat of a Tebow end around. It basically looked to me, like Ted mentioned, exactly like the cutback runs of 98 and 99 except for the fact that it was more effective because you had extra blockers because your QB is the runner and he&#8217s already going in the opposite direction as your RB (eliminate the defenses +1 advantage).

There were 3 plays last year that kind of cemented what kind of offense we needed to run this in my head. The first was a pass against KC where he runs right, reverses left then throws for a TD. The second was in the San Diego game where they faked the zone read and Tebow steps back and throws a TD. The last was in the Texans game where he faked the run right, dropped back to pass, saw nothing open, then ran left for a TD.

Finally, if this all works out, a lot of credit needs to be given to McDaniels as he saw and understood this from the beginning. He installed the original Tebow package plays, put in the basic offensive concepts, and was slowly bringing him along according to a development plan. It got derailed, but at least he left a blueprint for McCoy and staff to work with.

Posted by chantech on 2011-11-08 20:16:48

A cheap RB who could do well imo in this offense is CJ Spiller. BUF may cut him loose as I think they&#8217re now using him as a WR this year. There are also some college RBs that operate beautifully out of this offense (coughcough - Oregon - coughcough) that we could get in the later rounds.

Posted by acemagoo2001 on 2011-11-08 20:12:20

Ted, thank you for serving us. I wonder if McD would have employed zone read with TT, or if he was aiming to develop a more traditional qb to emerge who also throws a mean screen?

not entirely off topic as curry featured in a couple plays above, but how about the top 5 picks in the 2011 draft so far? newton, miller, dareus, green and peterson all look legit. When was the last draft to not have a big underachiever in the top 5.

Posted by Tombstone on 2011-11-08 20:11:47

I&#8217ve had the pleasure of watching Matt Barkley a few times this year, and like you, I have seen a growth of progression from a couple of years ago. If Tebow isn&#8217t the answer (I sincerely hope he is) then I wouldn&#8217t mind having Matt Barkley on the team. Might be a good idea anyway even if Tebow is the answer just to have that extra edge at the position while they both develop. I really don&#8217t see us taking a DT early as I haven&#8217t been too impressed with the lot of them. I do like Claiborne out of LSU as a CB pick in the first rd though if we pick around 10-12.

great post Ted and thanks for bringing to the table what my eyes have been seeing, but my brain couldn&#8217t compute&#8230

Posted by bfree2bronc on 2011-11-08 20:09:05

I&#8217m hearing a lot of positives and excitement and its hard not to get caught up in it. Especially with the Chiefs as the next opponent. Note Chiefs have had the 2nd easiest schedule so far and Denver has had the second toughest. My question is, Tebow has had a difficult time on 3rd downs. What does he, Denver need to do to become better at that aspect of the game?

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-11-08 20:07:12

Another awesome article. Interesting points about C Johnson in the comments too. If it really is a scheme issue that has impacted his performance this year, he would make an incredible pickup as a FA.

If the zone read does indeed prove to be more than a one game wonder, I wonder how much EFX are going to regret trading B. Lloyd. Talk about another wrinkle in the matchup issues. Teams couldn&#8217t single cover Lloyd and get away with it like they have been with the other Bronco receivers.

Posted by JoePlummer on 2011-11-08 19:54:59

WOW! great observation!

if I&#8217m the Broncos, I&#8217m trying to get CJ on our roster as soon as he becomes available (which he should because the titans don&#8217t have the pieces around him for him to be successful anymore).

@Alex, I think if we could get him for really cheap as a specialist he&#8217d be awesome for this team as a home run hitter, assuming the FO decides to go with Tebow that is.

If we draft Barkley or Jones, I wouldn&#8217t want to go anywhere near CJ.

Posted by chantech on 2011-11-08 19:51:22

@Alex, I&#8217ve been saying it forever - go to yahoo, open up a CJ game by game log and look at all his bad games. Click the box scores then look to see if VY played.

It&#8217s the reason why I wouldn&#8217t draft CJ In any of my fantasy leagues at the beginning of the year. The fact that he hasn&#8217t really done well this year just kind of confirmed the theory.

Posted by chantech on 2011-11-08 19:50:11

@chantech

you&#8217re totally right about his distribution of runs.

so do you think that if the broncos (with tebow as the QB) made a move for johnson he could return to form?

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 19:49:28

#16 Broncosmania:

Exactly. The idea that a stellar QB is needed because it&#8217s a passing offense is because that&#8217s the mindset both the offense and defenses have been going. And, since the defenses are built to defend that, they&#8217ll struggle with other schemes, such as this one.

I&#8217m excited. This might just change the face of the game for awhile. Additionally, this offense plays right into our offensive personnel: linemen that are better at run blocking than pass blocking, a QB that&#8217s better at reading the zone and running than he is at pass production, and young receivers/TE&#8217s that still need to learn their routes but can run block.

#18 Chantech: You called this for the past three weeks? Nice! Good observation. About as far as I got with that was an observation that McCoy was calling plays that didn&#8217t optimize Tebow&#8217s ability. Instead of trying to train Tebow to be something he presently isn&#8217t and beating everybody up in the meantime, find something he can use to win, and everybody starts to play better. And, Tebow gets to still learn along the way.

Posted by jtomasik on 2011-11-08 19:48:24

@broncoph, If you think about Chris Johnson&#8217s run distribution, even with VY, it was 1 yard, 1 yard, 2 yards, 60 yards and a TD. Chris Johnson&#8217s game relies heavily on open space and speed - two things that happened more often with Vince Young. Mostly because defenders had to spy VY, were worried about rollouts, etc. He was never a good between the tackles runner. People say he&#8217s lost a step, he&#8217s slow, what happened to CJ - nothing happened to CJ, he doesn&#8217t have open space to work with since VY left.

The same is happening in Philly with Vick. What was the complaint about Philly before Vick got there? They couldn&#8217t run the ball. When guys are frozen for a split second or they can&#8217t just contain the edge because of your running QB it opens up giant holes in the running game.

People used to say Vince Young wins football games - it wasn&#8217t because Vince Young is magical. It&#8217s because his presence brought some unique things to the offense that weren&#8217t obvious to casual observers and couldn&#8217t be captured by stats.

Posted by chantech on 2011-11-08 19:47:40

MSM reports blame johnson&#8217s decline this year on his playing &#8220slow out of the backfield&#8221 after holding out and &#8220playing to avoid contact&#8221 after signing his huge contract.

Could the real reason be that he needs that extra second that he got from the zone read to get an extra step on defenders?

his skill set has always been more based on his speed and agility than his strength and ability to break tackles. maybe he could return to form in a zone read system??

i&#8217m gonna investigate this&#8230.

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 19:47:32

@broncoPH #15

You make an excellent point about johnson. Hasselbeck is never going to run a zone read.

I seem to remember seeing something in one of the daily lards in the past few weeks that johnson and TEN could be parting ways&#8230 FA signing for the broncos this offseason? (you guys saw how bad we&#8217ve been this year when mcgahee goes down&#8230 we&#8217re gonna need a second HB)

Posted by Alex Crean on 2011-11-08 19:39:50

@sleepy - you touched on a point about mismatches. That&#8217s the beauty of an offense like this - you&#8217re not trying to create mismatches of talent. For example, Detroit trying to get Megatron matched up on a corner not named Bailey. You&#8217ve automatically created schematic advantages in both the running and passing games.

Add in talented skill players - which I think we have in Thomas, Decker and Royal and you&#8217ve got the makings of something special. Imagine when Thomas develops a little and all our double TE formations that we can run the zone read out of also have pass options?

Also, Demaryius played in a run heavy offense in college and is very, very underrated as a run blocker.

This is what I&#8217ve been screaming in comments sections for the last 3 weeks for the Broncos to run as their base and they finally did it. It&#8217s going to be exciting to see what new wrinkles we add each week.

Posted by chantech on 2011-11-08 19:33:58

@Chan (9)@Brmt (16) Very good points guys. One would have to assume as 15 gets better with his passing the one on ones will make this offensive style more effective fom here out.

Posted by tom3565 on 2011-11-08 19:32:06

One other comment: The fact that this seems to be workable in a league that is now geared toward perfecting (and stopping) the passing game leads me to believe it could actually catch much of the league sleeping for awhile. Teams are drafting personnel to stop Aaron Rogers, not Tim Tebow.

Posted by broncosmontana on 2011-11-08 19:25:53

Ted, long time reader and big time fan of your work.

You mentioned the zone read being effective when used with the Titans and VY and CJ. Couple of questions.

1. Was this type of run offense a staple of CJ&#8217s breakout year where he broke the 2K barrier?

and

2. Do you think there&#8217s anything to the theory that without a QB like VY to open up the field, CJ will never be as effective like he was with Young?

Posted by BroncoPH on 2011-11-08 19:24:33

magster (7): Exactly. Well said, man. And for once it looked like McCoy was having as much fun with it as 15 and 23 were. I feel like we could be onto something here. It&#8217s only one play (or set of plays), but it plays to our QB&#8217s strength and it&#8217s not hard to imagine it becoming as much of a staple as &#8220one cut and run&#8221 was in the 90s.

Posted by broncosmontana on 2011-11-08 19:23:42

Thank you for teaching us about this &#8220offense&#8221.

I was going to ask a question but you answered it before I asked. I noticed that in one photo that you showed that Oakland totally ignored the trips left. I was going to ask why didn&#8217t they pass there. I imagine that they are still developing this offense and soon that an audible will be called or even an automatic &#8220if you see them do that, you do this&#8221 type adjustment. I like the thought that Denver is doing something that nobody else is doing because defenses are made up with what they will be facing in mind and to be different leads to mismatches. I&#8217ve never seen another NFL QB built like Tebow. it would be like being afraid Hershal Walker was taking to many hits running 5 times a game. It will be interesting to see where this ends up.

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-11-08 19:21:36

Also, the reason why this stuff works is it&#8217s fundamental to all good offensive design - it takes guys out of the play or creates situations where you have a 2 on 1 avantage.

Essentially we have the 2 on 1 advantages in the passing game that the McDaniels offense frequently schemed through route combinations but also have a huge 2 on 1 advantage in the running game.

Posted by chantech on 2011-11-08 19:18:52

Knocked it out of the park again, Dr. Bartlett. The more I learn about this old school play, the more I love it. And love that MacGahee seems to have tuned his game to it and, though once a doubter, is now a believer. Can&#8217t wait to see more variations in Arrowhead. Go Broncos!

Posted by broncosmontana on 2011-11-08 19:18:47

Jason, both JD and Kuper have been superb for the most part in run blocking and just in general have easily been the best OLs on the team this year. I do think the other two newbies (Beadles and Franklin) can and are learning something from them, and Clady, while not looking All Pro, is starting to round into form (the holding calls notwithstanding - and some of those have been tickytack imho).

Anyway, great stuff Ted. I love me some screenshots - especially regarding something positive occurring. But this is also a really great explanation, or breakdown, of what they are doing now and why it works - even when other team is supposedly prepared for it.

Also, I didn&#8217t see this linked here earlier, but PFW&#8217s Eli Kaberon also gave props to Broncos; he also calls Tebow &#8220master of the zone-read.&#8221

I love that you pointed out Giordano running into a ref (poor guy) haha

Something that you didn&#8217t point out that was even more interesting to me is that all our receivers are single covered. If you can always pass when the opponent is in man coverage, you&#8217ve got a huge advantage. We haven&#8217t even begun to scratch the surface of what an offense that looks like this can do&#8230

Posted by chantech on 2011-11-08 19:06:55

Albert Haynesworth anybody?

Posted by tom3565 on 2011-11-08 19:04:40

The zone-read option criticism is that Tebow will get hurt is stupid. Tebow will get benched if he doesn&#8217t use what he&#8217s good at, so you might as well let him do what he does or why play him at all?

Posted by magster on 2011-11-08 18:53:46

I also must admit that I&#8217m a bit giddy that we out-manned a very physical (hey, I didn&#8217t say dirty) front-7 from Oakland on Sunday. Question for the room: in your opinion, how much of that was JD Walton finally rubbing off on the other 4 starters, and how much was Oakland sitting back and leaving skidmarks in their drawers from fear of Tebow making them look silly?

My vote (and my hope) is that it was mostly the former.

Posted by Jason Chestnut "Broncos Bassis on 2011-11-08 18:52:45

What the hell? I had a post typed up and hit reply but the ebays ate it.

Great read as always, Ted. I am a bit ignorant of the Zone Read, but this helps a lot. I look forward to teams stopping it in the real world, rather than expecting a proclaimation of &#8216college&#8217 to cause it to cease to exist in a puff of smoke.

One question, though: did we run any play-action off of the zone-read look? I could see that causing some damage once the defense sells out to spy both the RB and the QB. Example 3 where the D is in its base 4-3 and we&#8217re running trips left looks like a good place to throw. Not sure you would call it play-action, but it&#8217s the same idea&#8212fake the hand-off, take a step or two and look to throw.

Posted by Jason Chestnut "Broncos Bassis on 2011-11-08 18:49:17

I confess to the BVP comparison, and I humbly repent. Just frustrated after Detroit and why I don&#8217t write a blog.

The breakdown of that last TD has me excited because the other breakdowns of plays which worked for the Broncos seemed like they were succesful because of undisciplined play by the Raiders, but that last play McGahee improvised and/or had excellent vision (would Moreno have made that play?). While Tebow needs to develop his passing, if we can run for 300 yards despite the defense being stacked to defend the run, why pass?

Posted by magster on 2011-11-08 18:49:13

Excellent write-up Ted! Nice timing as I wanted to learn more about this &#8220zone read&#8221 concept. It will be interesting to see if the opposing linebackers will try to put Tim Tebow out of the game, as that is one way for them to not get gashed by the zone read over and over (which must be very frustrating for them!) Thanks again for the time and attention you put into your writing.

Posted by olybronco1 on 2011-11-08 18:45:16

Awesome as always Ted!!!

The consensus of the MSM is that this &#8220Zone-Read&#8221 style of play will not last for the Broncos - because they will get Tebow - Killed on all the runs. MSM Fool&#8217s - open your eyes - Tebow did not get a bloody lip from 100+ yards of running but from trying to stay too long in the pocket on back to back all out blitzes by the Raiders. The uncalled penalty of a helmet to the chin was probably the cause of the wound to the warrior. And like the warrior he is - Tebow was not on the bench receiving medical attention, but on the sideline cheering on the defense. Give the Broncos more warriors like this (Tebow & Dawkins) and we will have a winning football team again!!

Posted by BroncoPHD on 2011-11-08 18:35:04

Re Peter King saying that Tebow lacks quickness; Colin Cowheard said something equally dumb last week. He was making the comparison between Tebow and Vick. Colin stated that Vick had a better arm and that Vick was a 4.2 40 guy and the Tebow was like a 4.6-4.8 40 guy. Problem with that is TT has 50lbs on Vick and runs a 4.8 40 while carrying a DB on his back. Apples and Oranges.