Sunday, September 29, 2013

I had an ugly 9-7 record last week with huge misses with the
Giants, Niners, and Steelers getting housed.
The Atlanta-Miami game met expectations, and Cincinnati showed a lot of fight, scoring 20
unanswered points on the Packers. We’re
only three weeks in, but it’s pretty clear how this season is going to go for a
lot of teams.

The good – Seattle, Denver, New
Orleans

The bad – Jacksonville, NY Giants, Minnesota, Pittsburgh

Seattle and Denver
look like the clear leaders of their conferences, and if New Orleans’ defense is for real, they’re
definitely in the discussion. Jacksonville is clearly the worst team in the league, the
Giants are a horrible mess on both sides of the ball, Minnesota
looks lost, and Pittsburgh
is far removed from being a championship contender.

What will we learn this week?

Cardinals @ Bucs

Even though I’m glad to see the Freeman era end, I don’t
believe Mike Glennon is the answer either.
He gets his first chance to prove me wrong today. Both Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are
questionable. Their absences would make
the Bucs virtually weaponless in the passing game. Doug Martin will be called on a lot
regardless. Arizona doesn’t put a ton of pressure on the
passer (5 sacks through 3 games), so that should work well in the rookie’s
favor. The Bucs are a couple of stupid
plays from being 2-1, so their 0-3 isn’t as ugly as the rest of the league’s
winless teams. I expect the Bucs defense
to be stout and help the rookie not have to get into a TD matching
contest. Assuming, Jackson or Williams
plays, look for Mike Sullivan to make use of Glennon’s arm with a few deep balls. Bucs by 10.

Ravens @ Bills

This is a big game for Baltimore. Buffalo is
really beat up on defense and ranks near the bottom of the league in yards
allowed despite having faced teams that haven’t exactly lit it up against other
teams so far (New England 19th, Carolina 25th, and Jets 12th
in yards per game). Baltimore
is near the bottom of the league in that category thanks to that stinker
against the Browns and the defense and special teams scoring last week against Houston. With Ray Rice reportedly ready to go, I’ll take
the champs to win the time of possession and the battle on the scoreboard.

Bengals @ Browns

I like the Bengals, but I don’t like that they’re without
Leon Hall, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Reggie Nelson in this one. Even if Terence Newman is able to handle Josh
Gordon, the Bengals don’t have an answer for Jordan Cameron. Cincinnati was
able to come back with 20 unanswered points to beat Green Bay last week, and I think they’re
going to need that kind of focused effort to win this one. I’m taking Cincinnati, but I don’t feel great about
it. The favored team has won only one of
the last twelve matchups between these two.

Bears @ Lions

Chicago enters this one as
the undefeated division leaders, but Detroit is
a late TD at Arizona
away from being 3-0 themselves. The
Lions will miss Nate Burleson, but Reggie Bush looks ready to go this
week. Look for both he and Joique Bell
to see a ton of touches. The Bears still
score defensive TDs, but overall, the Lions are playing better defense so
far. Matthew Stafford has thrown 5 TDs
and 2 INTs in his two home matchups against the Bears, so he hasn’t exactly
imploded against the opportunistic defense.
I’ll take the home team to even things up in the division.

Giants @ Chiefs

I can’t come up with a reason to take the Giants in this
one. They can’t run the ball or protect
Eli. That’s definitely not going to get
any easier against the Chiefs in Arrowhead.
To me it’s as easy as this – KC leads’ the NFL with a +9 turnover
differential, and the Giants are the game’s worst at -9. Those numbers will surely even out as the
season progresses, but I don’t foresee an instant turnaround by both
teams. The Giants can’t stop the run (27th
most yards per game) and were lit up by DeAngelo Williams for 120 yards on 23
carries (5.2 avg). If they had trouble
containing Williams, they’re really going to struggle with Jamaal Charles. Look for another boring Alex Smith-led win and
a lot of dirt on the back of Eli’s jersey.

Steelers @ Vikings

Flip a coin. Both of
these teams stink so far. Pittsburgh can’t run the
ball or allow Roethlisberger to set his feet for more than two seconds. Minnesota
couldn’t hold onto a lead if it came with handles. Both defenses are giving up far too many
points. I’m taking the Steelers simply
because I believe in Ben more than Christian.

Colts @ Jaguars

If the Colts were playing just about any other team this
week, I might think they’d be in store for a letdown. That won’t matter here, as the Colts should
be able to get a good audition from Trent Richardson this week with Ahmad
Bradshaw sidelined. It will probably be
boring and one of the lower scoring games of the week, but the Colts get the
W.

Seahawks @ Texans

I’m sure they’ll lose eventually, but I can’t go against the
Seahawks just because they’re on the road at the Texans. After basically walking through their week
one win at Carolina, over the last 8 quarters of
Seattle
football, there has been no question as to who was the dominant team on the
field. Like San
Francisco, Houston
likes to establish the run, and aside from some Kaepernick runs, the Niners
were shut down. Schaub isn’t
Kaepernick. Houston
got housed at Baltimore last week, and didn’t
look dominant in beating San Diego or Tennessee. They’ll need to be dominant against Seattle, and I can’t see
it happening. If this is going to be a
special season for Seattle,
they have to win games like this. The
best team in the NFL moves to 4-0.

Jets @ Titans

Jake Locker played well in a loss at Houston
and shined in last week’s win against San
Diego, but I don’t think he’ll be consistent enough in
the passing game to beat a strong Jets defense.
New York likes to run the ball, and I
think they’ll be able to do so successfully against Tennessee.
If Geno Smith can quit throwing the ball to the other team (6 INTs so
far), I like New York’s
chances of winning an ugly road game.

Eagles @ Broncos

After two home stinkers, how eager will the Eagles be to run
the fast paced offense at Mile High?
Unless Peyton Manning just has such an un-Peyton game, I don’t see
Philly having a chance. The Broncos offense
is in midseason form and is pretty much unstoppable. Philly’s defense will be outclassed in this
one. If you like points, you should see
a lot of them here. Denver scores 40.

Redskins @ Raiders

Washington
can’t possibly lose this one right? They’d
be 0-4 heading into their bye week with a road trip to Dallas next on the schedule. Can’t happen right? Wrong.
If Terrelle Pryor plays, I like Oakland
to win. They got beat pretty bad on MNF
against the Broncos, but the Raiders never gave up. If RGIII gets off to another slow start, it
could be too late once again. With Washington unable to
stop anyone, they can’t be eager to go up against the versatile Pryor. The DC sports talk airwaves will be on fire
Monday morning.

Cowboys @ Chargers

This is where Dallas
usually gives you a stinker – off a strong home win against a team they should
beat with a chance to get some separation within the division. The Chargers have played three three-point
games, so they’re staying in ball games.
I like them to do more than stay in this one. Philip Rivers is off to a hot start (8 TD, 1
INT), and Dallas
has surrendered a combined 7 TDs to Alex Smith, Eli, and Bradford. I think Rivers will be the better QB in this
one, and the Chargers win by, yes, 3 points.

Patriots @ Falcons

New England is a very
fortunate 3-0 so far. Both the Bills and
Jets had their chances to knock them off, and the Bucs game was a lot closer
than the score indicated. Danny Amendola
isn’t ready yet, and it doesn’t appear that Gronk is ready to go either. Atlanta is 1-2
but was a last minute TD from beating a Miami
team whose bandwagon everyone is stumbling over themselves to get on. I like the Falcons to get right at home and
make some big plays against the Patriots.

Dolphins @ Saints

In what should be the season’s best MNF game so far, I
believe Drew Brees and company will put up just enough points to outdo the
upstart Dolphins. He had an impressive
342 yards and 3 TDs in last week’s win over Arizona that I thought might have been
setting up as a bit of a trap. They’re
rolling on defense too, holding all opponents to 17 or fewer points so
far. Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins
earn more respect and fans in this one, but the Saints will be the undefeated
of the two come Tuesday.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Short and sweet here.
The Niners are coming off a brutal home beating by the Colts, their
second loss in a row. Jim Harbaugh’s
team has not lost three games in a row under his watch. Even without Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, and
Nnamdi Asomugha on defense, I have a terribly hard time seeing this team drop a
third straight.

The Rams didn’t lose to the Niners last year, beating them
once and tying them in their other meeting, so another upset isn’t entirely out
of the question. But given how bad the
Rams have been at putting up points the last two weeks (in non-garbage time), I
can’t see them replicating what the Colts did last week. Look for San Francisco to go with a very run heavy
approach against a St. Louis team that gave up 175 yards to DeMarco Murray last
week. I’m expecting a low scoring,
fairly boring Thursday contest.

Sunday, September 22, 2013

That KC win makes me 3-0 on Thursdays, and if I can toot my
own horn even more, I’d day I was pretty accurate with how it would play
out. The entire trifecta didn’t
dominate, but Justin Houston totaled a whopping 4.5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries,
4 TFL, and 2 passes defended. Wow! Also, Shady did get his, and Dog Killer did
in fact have multiple turnovers. The
Chiefs did slow the game and feature Charles and Smith on the ground (31
combined carries for 124 yards).

I went 12-4 last week, and two of those losses were upset
picks that I whiffed on completely (Rams @ Falcons and Giants v. Broncos). 11 of last week’s games were decided by 8
points or less, and I think you’ll see that become a trend as we continue through
the season. Here are this week’s picks:

Bucs @ Patriots

New England is fortunate to
be 2-0 at this point and don’t come close to resembling the team I think
they’ll be at the end of the year. Tom
Brady and his receivers are having communication issues, leading to a 36
combined points through two games. They
scored 34 in last year’s season opener at Tennessee.
TampaBay is an unlucky 0-2. After literally giving the Jets the opening
week win, they crumbled in crunch time and surrendered a late game winner to
the Saints. I’m leery of the Patriots,
especially against this Bucs defense, but I simply can’t count on the Bucs to
win tough games as long as Josh Freeman continues to look this poor under
center. The Bucs’ defense does their
job, but the Patriots win a close one late.

Packers @ Bengals

Even considering that the home team Bengals have the better
defense, I can’t see Andy Dalton matching scores with Aaron Rodgers. Dalton should
be able to make more plays against Green Bay
than he did against Chicago
on MNF, but I don’t think it will be enough.
Rodgers rolled through the Redskins last night and could have lit them
up even more if the game wasn’t so far out of hand. I like Cincinnati’s
pass defense, but the Packers have too many options. Rodgers will throw 4 TDs. Expect a final total in the 60s.

Rams @ Cowboys

I’m hoping to get a better picture of how good the Cowboys
are in this game. The
helped-by-turnovers win against the Giants and the coming-up-short-late loss in
KC have me conflicted. They still can’t
run the ball or protect Romo and fall short when it counts. The Rams got behind early at Atlanta but showed a lot of fight until the
final whistle. The main question I have
with them is whether or not they can score when it counts, and that should be
the key in this one. I’m rolling with
Romo to put up enough points at home to earn a hard fought, close victory.

Chargers @ Titans

This one could be interesting. The Chargers are off a big win at Philly, and
the Titans nearly toppled the Texans on the road. Philip Rivers is off to a hot start, throwing
7 TDs through the first two games, but he’s facing a Tennessee
defense that virtually shutout Pittsburgh
and picked off Matt Schaub twice (one for a pick 6). I still don’t have any confidence in Jake
Locker. We all know this is now a
passing league, but through two games, Chris Johnson has as many rushing
attempts as Locker has passing attempts.
Philly moved the ball on San
Diego, and so did the Texans once they woke up in that
opener. I think the Titans get another
solid defensive performance and just enough points out of the offense to win by
3 or less.

Browns @ Vikings

Following the trade of Trent Richardson to Indianapolis, the Browns signed Willis
McGahee to be their primary ball carrier.
Oh, and Brian Hoyer is starting at QB this week too. The football gods could throw a wrench in
this one, but everything says the Vikings should win. The Browns have struggled to generate any
offense through two games and now run up against a Vikings team seething to get
a win in their home opener. Expect at
least 30 carries by MVPeterson in this one.

Cardinals @ Saints

New Orleans is off to a hot
2-0 start after beating division rivals Atlanta
and TampaBay in weeks one and two. They better not look past the visiting Cardinals
in this one, because Carson Palmer has 575 yards through two games as the
leader of an offense capable of putting up points of their own. I don’t think they’ll pull off the upset, but
New Orleans’
defense better not get off to a slow start.
Another close one. Saints by
6.

Lions @ Redskins

Wow Washington’s
a mess. Will their defense show up for
the first time in three games? Will
RGIII finally start using his legs? If
the Redskins want to turn this season around before it gets out of hand, they’ve
got to win this one. They’ll then have Oakland on deck before a
week 5 bye. Detroit’s
defense can still be scored on, so Washington
should have plenty of chances to get that first win as long as their own
defense doesn’t pull another no-show. Calvin
Johnson totals 200 yards receiving in a losing effort.

Giants @ Panthers

Speaking of 0-2, this matchup features two more teams off to
disappointing starts. A week after
giveaway day in Dallas,
the Giants were thoroughly embarrassed at home against the Broncos. Week 3 is too early for “must win” games, but
another loss puts both of these teams in a really bad spot. The Panthers would head into their bye
winless with two road games to follow, while the Giants would be in the
basement of their division with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bears next on the
schedule. I think the key in this one
will be the Giants passing game against the beat up and not very talented
Panther secondary. David Wilson and the
running game will again struggle against an improved Panthers front seven, but
Victor Cruz finds the endzone twice.
Giants win by 10.

Texans @ Ravens

These teams were headed in vastly different directions at
the end of last season, and although the Texans are the undefeated of these two
squads after two weeks, I think I feel better about the Ravens. Houston needed
a lot of help from San Diego to win the first
game and needed OT last week to beat Tennessee. Baltimore
hasn’t been pretty either, losing at Denver and
struggling to outlast Cleveland,
and as I type this they’re likely to be without Ray Rice. I’m counting on the champs to pull one out
with Marlon Brown catching the decisive TD.

Falcons @ Dolphins

This is the most intriguing game of the week in my
opinion. You’ve got the respected Falcons
heading south to face the 2-0 Dolphins. Miami’s offseason
expenditures are paying off so far, and they appear to be catching the Falcons
at the right time. Atlanta is banged up pretty good
already. Steven Jackson is out with a
thigh injury, Roddy White is walking wounded, and Jeremy Trueblood starts at RT
with Lamar Holmes moving to LT, making them worse at two spots up front. Defensively, they lost Sean Weatherspoon and
Kroy Biermann for the year last week, and Asante Samuel is questionable. This would be a HUGE statement win for the
Dolphins, and I think they’ll definitely be the more focused team Sunday. If the Dolphins can keep Tony Gonzalez from
beating them in the middle of the field, I like Ryan Tannehill’s chances of
making enough plays against a reeling defense.
Miami
moves to 3-0.

Bills @ Jets

This is a tough one to pick.
I like the Jets front seven, but the Bills look to be jelling much
better as a team in the early going. It
should be a slow one out of the gates, but I’m going to count on EJ Manuel
carrying that momentum over from last week’s comeback win and make it two in a
row. Buffalo gets their first win at the Jets
since ’09.

Colts @ 49ers

I didn’t give Indy much of a chance to win this one before
the Richardson trade, and while, I expect his acquisition to pay dividends this
year, tomorrow won’t be one of those days.
Maybe the final score will be closer than the experts think, but I don’t
see Jim Harbaugh’s squad dropping two in a row.
A loss here would be a bad bad bad bad thing. Niners by 20.

Jaguars @ Seahawks

I don’t talk point spreads much, but 18 points in a
professional football game?!?! The
Jaguars own the title of worst team in the league so far, and facing the
Seahawks isn’t going to help them shake that moniker. Seattle
faces tougher resistance in a Saturday walk through. Seattle
by 24.

Bears @ Steelers

Pittsburgh
has looked awful so far this year, and the Bears are on the upswing at
2-0. The Bears are the pick right? As bad as the Steelers have played, Chicago is a couple of
plays from being winless themselves. The
Steelers can get right back on track by defending home field and winning at Minnesota before their
week five bye. I’m sure that’s their
focus. The Bears on the other hand have
a division road game next week against the Lions. I’ve seen this set up too often before. The house is on the Bears, but the Steelers
get the win. Markus Wheaton scores his
first TD as a pro, and the Steelers win a surprisingly high-scoring,
entertaining Sunday capper.

Raiders @ Broncos

If the Broncos could spank the Ravens and Giants that badly,
how do you think the Raiders are going to fare?
If I’m not channel surfing by 10:30 I’ll be shocked. Peyton and company move to 3-0 with a
decisive win.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Ok. Week two went a
little better. 2-0 so far in the
Thursday night games, but this figures to be the closest one yet. The big story in this one is Andy Reid’s
return to Philadelphia. Selfishly, I would have liked them to
schedule this game at least another month from now, as week 3 seems a lot too
soon to hype up Reid’s return.
Regardless, this one should be highly entertaining.

Can Chip Kelly’s offense do a better job of controlling the
ball this week after the Chargers, a team with zero ground game, held the ball
for 40 minutes last week? This will
easily be Philly’s toughest test thus far.
KC held the Cowboys to just one TD last week after kicking around the
Jags in week 1. I think the trifecta of
Dontari Poe, Tamba Hali, and Justin Houston is going to play a huge part in
this one. How well the latter two
control the edges will go a long way in dictating how successful the Eagles
will be. I think Shady McCoy will still
get his, but Dog Killer will have multiple turnovers. DeSean Jackson will get a boost if Brandon
Flowers isn’t able to go in this one.

Look for the Chiefs to slow the game down and feature a lot
of Jamaal Charles and some of Alex Smith on the ground. Dwayne Bowe has yet to get loose, but you’ve
got to like his chances this week given the way Pierre Garcon, Leonard
Hankerson, Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd, and Eddie Royal have already torched
the Eagles secondary. Philly is favored,
but I think the Chiefs are the better football team. They’re certainly the better defense, and as
long as they don’t get in an early multi-score deficit, I like Reid’s chances
of earning a homecoming win.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

9-7 isn’t how I had hoped to start. It was just one week, but the Bucs, Bengals,
and Browns were my early disappointments.
The Eagles are entertaining, the Bears look like an offensive team, and
the Chiefs may actually give the Broncos a run for the AFC West. What does this week have in store for us?

Rams @ Falcons

There’s no way the Falcons can start 0-2 right? Wrong.
I know Matt Ryan always wins
at home, but I trust St. Louis’
defense more right now. I believe Sam
Bradford and the Rams offense will get off to an early start and, surprisingly,
control most of this game.

Panthers @ Bills

Carolina looked much improved
defensively last week, even if Seattle
was being vanilla. They’re the better
defense and the better offense. Cam outplays
EJ. Panthers win.

Vikings @ Bears

Might this be the week 2 gotcha? The Bears looked really good offensively last
week against a strong Bengals defense, and the Vikings had trouble doing
anything after MVPeterson took his first carry of the year to the house. Hesitantly, I pick the Bears to win
handily.

Redskins @ Packers

I think we see a lot of points in this one. The Packers faced a more potent versatile
offense last week, so they should be well prepared for an obviously rusty
RGIII. Will a week of practice make a
ton of difference? Total game score will
exceed 70.

Dolphins @ Colts

Indy barely survived what everyone figures will be a bad
Oakland team last week at the same time the Dolphins were imposing their will
on the Browns. This would be an early
statement game for Miami. I’m going with the clearly better
defense.

Cowboys @ Chiefs

Maybe I’m crazy, but I wasn’t too impressed with the Cowboys
last week. The Giants literally gave
them the game, yet the score was much closer than it should have been. After getting knocked around by the Giants,
Tony Romo heads to Arrowhead, never an easy place for a visitor, where he’ll be
hunted by Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, and Dontari Poe. Andy Reid knows the Cowboys. Chiefs by 10.

Chargers @ Eagles

I’d be really surprised if the Chargers pull off this
win. You know Chip Kelly is going to
want to run even more plays than they did on MNF, and if Ben Tate (no
disrespect; I like him) can average 6 yards a carry against San Diego, how much will Shady and Vick
tally? It’s an early east coast game for
the Chargers, and I just think Kelly is going to have them running a lot more
than they’d like that early in the day.

Browns @ Ravens

Baltimore has beaten Cleveland ten straight
times, so I’d say there’s some ownage going on here. Joe Haden shut down Mike Wallace last week,
and he’ll likely be locked on Torrey Smith.
I like Marlon Brown to have a big game on the other side, scoring twice.

Titans @ Texans

Something tells me that the Texans need to be careful in
this one. If they come out sloppy again,
they might find it harder to come back on the Titans than the Chargers. Closer than the experts think.

Saints @ Bucs

Everything says the Bucs should lose this game. Even with an improved defense, the Bucs will
have a hard time matching scores with the Saints. Doug Martin will have a lot more room to run,
but in the end, Freeman won’t be able to make the necessary plays.

Lions @ Cardinals

Great week one win by the Lions. They won’t go to 2-0. Carson Palmer and the Cardinals win an entertaining
home opener 34-27.

Jaguars @ Raiders

In what should easily be the league’s ugliest game of the
week, I’m going to trust Terrell Pryor and Sebastian Janikowski to put the
Jaguars in the early driver’s seat for the #1 pick.

Broncos @ Giants

After that 7 touchdown performance in week 1, the Giants
have no chance right? Wrong. This one reeks upset. The Giants home dogs? Victor Cruz celebrates multiple times
again. Giants by 4.

49ers @ Seahawks

Can’t wait for this one.
Kaepernick v. Wilson. Lynch v. Gore. Elite defense v. Elite defense. San Fran got blasted 42-13 the last time they
visited Seattle,
but that won’t happen again. The 12th
man will be in full effect Sunday night, and I think the Seahawks get the early
leg up in the division on the Niners.

Steelers @ Bengals

I’m not sure how anyone can back the Steelers after that
piss poor performance in their home opener against the Titans. Nothing against Tennessee’s defense, but they’re not the
Bengals. I trust Cincinnati
to play much better in their home opener than did Pittsburgh.
Bengals by 13.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Not a great week one for me (more on that Sunday), but I did
get the Thursday game right. Hey, I even
got Demaryius Thomas’ 2 TDs right, but the game wasn’t as close as I thought it
would be. I think tonight’s game will be
different. If you’ve listened to five
minutes of sports talk radio this week you are well aware that the Patriots lack
offensive weapons. They were already
without Gronk and lost Shane Vereen last week for at least the next ten. Danny Amendola is out at least this game and
probably longer, and Zach Sudfeld probably isn’t playing tonight. Who is?
Expect to see a lot of Julian Edelman and Kenbrell Thompkins through the
air and Stevan Ridley on the ground.
They’d be wise to make use of Leon Washington in the Woodhead/Ridley
role.

The Patriots didn’t exactly shut down the Bills and their
rookie QB last week, and I don’t expect them to shutout the Jets and their
rookie QB. New York doesn’t have many offensive weapons
either, but that’s because they’re not any good; not because players are
hurt. I expect to see a close,
low-scoring, relatively boring game tonight.
Bill Belichick knows that he doesn’t need to throw the kitchen sink at
the Jets to beat them, and he wants his players to be as healthy as possible
heading into the ten day break before their next game. Thompkins,
Leon, and
Ridley score for the Patriots, and I predict the first in-game “Buff Fumble”
reference will occur in the first seven minutes of the first quarter. Geno Smith’s ability to extend drives with
his legs will keep the Jets in this one.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Off to a good start with Denver’s
Thursday night win over Baltimore. Here are the rest of my picks for Week
1.

Bucs @ Jets

They’ll blow it since I’m picking them, but aside from
hosting the Raiders, I’m not sure I could have picked a better opener for the
Bucs. Geno Smith is nowhere near ready
for prime time, and oh yeah, Darrelle Revis is back in town. They’ll ignore him like the plague, but
taking away half the field for an overmatched rookie QB is a tremendous edge
for the Bucs.

Patriots @ Bills

I’m really anxious to see this Patriots team in action. In what should be one of the week’s higher
scoring games, I think New England wins a
close one. These teams have played
entertaining football against each other the last three years. Last year’s two contest saw a total of 148
points scored.

Bengals @ Bears

My surprise team of ’13 gets it started with a road upset at
Chicago. I concede that they could easily lose this
game, but I believe Cincinnati
is a clearly superior team. Defense
travels, and they have one of the best in the business. They force Jay Cutler into a couple of
decisive miscues and turn them into points.

Dolphins @ Browns

Miami has received a ton of
hype for their offseason acquisitions, but I actually like Cleveland a little more at this point. I think we’ll see a heavy dose of Trent
Richardson against a defense I’m not loving.
Cleveland
wins by double digits.

Vikings @ Lions

Not counting the playoffs, Minnesota won its last four games of ‘12,
while the Lions lost their last nine.
It’s a new year, but I’m not sure a ton has changed. MVPeterson totaled 273 rushing yards in his
two games against Detroit last year, and in
order to keep Johnson, Stafford, and Bush on
the sidelines, he’s going to get fed a ton again. I predict he gets at least 175 yards in this
one.

Raiders @ Colts

Oakland
sucks, and Terrelle Pryor isn’t an NFL passer.
The Colts are going to get scored on a lot again this year, but I don’t
think the Raiders have the goods to get it done. Andrew Luck and company get a nice warm up
for week two against the Dolphins. Colts
by 17.

Falcons @ Saints

Since these two are the early favorites in the NFC South,
this isn’t your standard season opener.
I still have a lot of questions about New Orleans’ defense, but having Sean Payton
back is a free agent addition in itself.
The Falcons aren’t air tight on defense themselves, and having a limited
(at best) Roddy White won’t help them keep up on the scoreboard. Saints 31-24.

Titans @ Steelers

As I’ve said, I’m down on the Steelers this year, but I’m
even lower on the Titans. This still
isn’t a defense that Jake Locker wants to see, and I don’t think Ben
Roethlisberger is going to have a ton of trouble finding Antonio Brown, Emmanuel
Sanders, or Markus Wheaton. I think this
is going to be an ugly, low scoring game that has Tennessee in striking distance late but
unable to convert when it counts.

Seahawks @ Panthers

If I was to pick a “gotcha” of the week, it’s probably this
game. The Seahawks are going to win a
lot this season and are clearly the more talented team in this matchup. I can see Carolina
turning a couple of early turnovers into scores and building a lead via the
east-coast-travel curse, but as long as Seattle
keeps their composure, they should be able to force enough mistakes themselves
and emerge with a hard-fought victory.

Chiefs @ Jaguars

Week one isn’t a “must win” for anyone, but if the Chiefs
want to convince their fans that this is a new year, then they’ve got to beat
the Jags. I see a big day for Jamaal
Charles and a rough one for MJD who gets smothered by a KC defense that doesn’t
have to respect the pass against a limited Blaine Gabbert who was already
limited because he’s Blaine Gabbert.

Cardinals @ Rams

I like Carson Palmer in this offense, but only three teams
surrendered less passing TDs last season than the Rams. I think this one matters more to the Rams
since they’re on the road with tough ones at Atlanta
and Dallas in
weeks two and three.

Packers @ 49ers

I think this is the best time for the Packers to try and get
revenge against the Niners, the team that started and ended Green Bay’s season with losses. There’s no Crabtree, and Colin Kaepernick is
still trying to develop chemistry with his receivers. Word is Dom Capers spent a Saturday or two
this offseason scheming against the read option offense. I expect Kaepernick to be a one-man-show
early on, so if the Packers can avoid the early onslaught, I think the veteran
visitors can hang in there. The Packers
get a couple more stops this time, and James Jones scores the winner in the
fourth.

Giants @ Cowboys

New York and Dallas met to kick off
the ’12 season, and they’re meeting in week one again this year. Dallas
won last year’s opener 24-17, and I say they win again by the same score. Jason Witten, who caught 18 passes the second
time these teams met in ’12, scores twice.

Eagles @ Redskins

This one should be entertaining. You’ve got Chip Kelly’s new offense against
the rehabilitated RGIII. Washington was one of
the higher scoring teams in the league last year, and I don’t think this disjointed
defense has what it takes to slow and even slowed RGIII. Points galore in this one. I’ve got the Redskins winning a MNF thriller 34-31.

Texans @ Chargers

This one shouldn’t be close, which tells me Houston
is going to be sloppy and keep San
Diego in this one.
I still can’t see Philip Rivers doing much of anything against this
defense, so it will probably be a low scoring, uneventful week one wrap up that
Houston has in
hand nearly the whole time.

I believe the
Patriots and Seahawks will be the league’s best regular season teams, but both won’t
make it to the Super Bowl. New England
is able to advance, but karma helps Green Bay
get redemption in Seattle.

I picked these guys as an upset pick to win the division
last year, and they were undoubtedly one of the more impressive teams in the
league. In what was thought to be a
division of Niners and also-rans, the Seahawks made the playoffs and were a
team no one wanted to play. Guess what? They better this year.

Matt Flynn came to town with ideas of replacing Tarvaris Jackson
at QB but was outdone for the job by third round pick, Russell Wilson. The former Wolfpack, former Badger won the
starting job in camp and didn’t look back.
He was responsible for 30 total TDs and more than 3,500 yards but more
importantly ran the read-option to perfection.
The guy has tremendous leader and the mental make up of a champion. I’m a big fan. All Marshawn Lynch did last year was run for
a career high by almost 400 yards and prove to be a perfect fit in this
offense. He’ll again finish in the top 5
in rushing, and I think he has an award winning year. One downer for the ’13 season is that new
acquisition Percy Harvin was sidelined before the season even got
underway. The former Viking underwent
hip surgery August 1 and is unlikely to suit up until midway through the
regular season. There’s a ton of
potential for a ground game that can utilize Lynch, Wilson, Harvin, and rookie
Christine Michael. For now they’ll have
to get by with Golden Tate and Sidney Rice at receiver. The latter may be the de-facto #1, but the
former has been getting a ton of hype this preseason. Tate has a chance to get a lot of the touches
earmarked for Harvin and make this dynamic offense even more explosive.

Seattle
has had one of the league’s top defenses for the last two years. No one allowed fewer points in ’12 than these
guys. They’re likely to lead the league
again considering their offseason haul.
Chris Clemons, the team’s leading pass rusher, went down in last year’s
Wild Card game with a torn ACL and is questionable for week 1. No problem.
All they did was go out and sign both Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in
free agency. Avril tallied 20.5 sacks
the last two years, and Tampa
chose to let Bennett walk after notching a career high 9. When you add these pass rushers to behemoths
like Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane, that’s going to spell trouble for a lot of
professional passers. I like two of
their young linebackers. Bobby Wagner
notched a whopping 140 tackles as a rookie at MLB, and KJ Wright is one of the
better all-round backers in the game. That’s
pretty solid so far, and I haven’t even mentioned the league’s best
secondary. Richard Sherman and Brandon
Browner form the premier corner duo in the game. They’re big, aggressive, physical, fast, and
make plays on the football. The fact
that newly acquired Antoine Winfield, a solid slot guy even at 36, was cut for
youngsters Walter Thurmond and Jeremy
Lane tells you what Pete Carroll thinks of his
young depth. The safety pairing is as
good as the one at corner. Earl Thomas
is the best young safety in the game, in my opinion, and strong safety Kam
Chancellor makes Sherman
and Browner look soft.

I’m really high on this team, and given what they’ve
accomplished this offseason along with their development and grown in ’12, I
think they’ve got what it takes to finish ahead of the Niners.

MVP – Marshawn Lynch

Breakout – Golden Tate

Disappointment – Sidney Rice

2) San Francisco
49ers

It was a great ride but not quite the finish the NFC champs
were hoping for. After a 12-4 regular
season, the Niners appeared to be on the verge of another championship, but the
Ravens had other plans. Are the Niners
up for another fight?

Not a lot of guys are getting more hype coming into the ’13
season than Niners QB Colin Kaepernick, and rightfully so. No qualified passer had a higher yard per
attempt average than Kaepernick, and only seven passers had a higher QB
rating. Oh, and did I mention the he’s
one of the three most dangerous QBs on the move (along with Rodgers and RGIII)? Last year Kaepernick had a yards per carry
average nearly identical to RGIII’s and had just two fewer rushing scores in
just over half as many carriers. I
expect quite the encounter this season.
Defenses have been gearing up to stop the read-option attack, and with
the Niners being without Michael Crabtree for at least the majority of the year
with an Achilles injury, Kaepernick is going to keep running. Who will win out? Frank Gore isn’t 106. It just seems that way. The model of consistently the last two years,
Gore outdid his ’11 total by 1 yard. I
would like to see him becoming a bigger part of the passing game once again,
and maybe that will happen given the situation at receiver. The newly acquired Anquan Boldin figures to
be Kaepernick’s security blanket, and with a lack of depth and experience at
the position, the young QB will likely often look his way. While Boldin is no longer an elite playmaker,
there’s not a more reliable set of hands in the game. After Boldin, the Niners are looking for
anyone to step up. Hopefully rookie
Quinton Patton, my favorite receiver from this year’s draft, seizes the
opportunity and makes a difference. The
Niners and Chiefs traded busts, so maybe Jim Harbaugh will get something out of
Jon Baldwin that KC couldn’t. Vernon
Davis remains one of the best athletes in the league. Although he and Kaepernick didn’t have that
immediate bond you usually see from young QBs and their TE, I expect Davis to be a primary target
in Crabtree’s offense. Look for a big year
from him.

I’m not sure these guys can thump their chests as the top
unit in their own division, let alone the league, anymore. Justin Smith may truly be the team’s most
valuable player, an opinion that had a lot of validity as Aldon Smith really
struggled down the stretch when Justin was sidelined. The rest of the defense struggled as well, as
opposing QBs had less difficulty against this group minus Justin. He’s ready to go which is great news for
everyone. Patrick Willis and NaVorro
Bowman form the league’s top inside linebacker duo, and I’m not sure that’s
even debatable. They’re both sideline to
sideline, physical defenders who don’t make mistakes. I like Ray McDonald at end, but they’re going
to miss NT Isaac Sopoaga at the nose. As
insurance (and proof of lesson learned last year) San Fran drafted both Tank
Carradine and Corey Lemonier and signed Glenn Dorsey in free agency. If you had to pick one area to distinguish
between the Seahawks and Niners (other than the stud ILBs), it would be the
weaknesses in San Fran’s secondary.
Carlos Rogers, Tarell Brown, and Nnamdi Asomugha don’t come close to Sherman, Browner, and Thurmond/Lane. With Dashon Goldson leaving, the Niners turn
to rookie Eric Reed to take his place at FS.
Donte Whitner returns at SS, but I worry, at least early on, how these
two will function together with Reed being a rookie and Whitner no longer being
at the top of his game. If the Niners
experience another loss up front, the repercussions could be much worse this
year.

I’m in no way expecting these guys to fade off into the
sunset, but I think they’ll take a back seat to Seattle within the division.

MVP – Colin Kaepernick

Breakout – Quinton Patton

Disappointment – Tarell Brown

3) St. Louis
Rams

Jeff Fisher’s first year at the helm wasn’t a winning one,
but it had to be considered a success.
Coming off an embarrassing 2-14 ’11 season, the Rams rebounded and
looked like a team with some promising youth.

Don’t get me wrong.
I’m a fan, but Sam Bradford is entering a make-or-bend-forcibly season
for me. This will be his fourth year as
a pro and second working with Brian Schottenheimer. Yes, they’ve lost Steven Jackson, but I do
like where their passing game stands.
Tavon Austin gets the publicity as the dynamic weapon, and rightfully
so. He’s of the rare Randall Cobb mold
as a player who can beat you in multiple ways.
For this year at least, I’m higher on Chris Givens. Last year Givens showed himself to be a very
viable deep threat, and word is they’re varying his routes a bit more this
year. Look for big things from him. I also love Austin’s college teammate, Stedman Bailey,
and he’d be a solid #5 behind Austin Pettis and Brian Quick. Lance Kendricks hasn’t broken out as a
terribly threatening TE, so the Rams signed Jared Cook in free agency. Cook’s been more hype than production to this
point in his career, but this is definitely a more promising situation than he
had in Tennessee. Back to the running game, a trio of backs
looks to fill the hole left by Jackson’s
departure to Atlanta. Daryl Richardson has first shot at being the
man, and he wasn’t awful when called upon last season. I just think his upside is limited. The guy I seeing as having the most talent in
this backfield is Isaiah Pead. Pead
struggled to make an impact in his first year and starts this one with a one
game suspension. He’s got to figure it
out.

They don’t get nearly as much attention as division rivals San Francisco and Seattle,
but St. Louis
has some good things going on defense as well with young fixtures at each
level. Two of them are at defensive end
where Chris Long and Robert Quinn combined for 22 sacks last season. As good as Long has been the last three
seasons, I’m excited to see how big a step Quinn takes in his third year. This is a guy who was a #1 overall talent
with a huge ceiling. I’m also a fan of
their third rusher, William Hayes, a guy they were wise to re-sign this
offseason. Michael Brockers got off to a
slow start last year with that ankle injury, but he looks like another future
star in the middle of the defensive line.
He’s healthy and should make this productive pass rush even more
dangerous. James Laurinaitis, the heart
of the defense, has been one of the most reliable MLBs in the league in his
four seasons with the Rams. I’m anxious
to see how their new WLB Alec Ogletree fares.
His talent is undeniable, as are his red flags, but if he figures it
out, he’ll be a great compliment to Laurinaitis. I can’t say I’m a fan of either of these two,
but Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins were one of the stingiest pair of
corners in the league last year. Finnegan
is a proven vet, and Jenkins acclimate himself well in year one. Rookie TJ McDonald is their best safety, and
that’s not necessarily a good thing.

I like where these guys are headed, but unfortunately,
they’ve got two Super Bowl contenders within their own division. I think a winning record would be a great
season.

MVP – Sam Bradford

Breakout – Chris Givens

Disappointment – Daryl Richardson

4) Arizona
Cardinals

And lastly, a team that hasn’t been very relevant very
often. The ’12 season was yet another
forgettable one for the Cardinals with their second five win season in three
years. How much hope is there for these
guys in a division with the Hawks, Niners, and up-and-coming Rams?

It’s a shame they’re in the NFC West because I think Arizona made strides
this offseason. They replaced Ken
Whisenhunt with Bruce Arians, the guy who basically coached the Colts last
year. Thanks to the acquisition of
Carson Palmer, Arians will be able to stretch the field as he likes to do. Palmer is pretty much an afterthought at the
QB position anymore, but I really like his fit in this offense. He threw for over 4,000 yards last year in an
awful Oakland offense but will have a future
HOFer in Larry Fitzgerald and impressive youngster in Michael Floyd to with in Arizona. Fitzgerald may have fallen off the radar a
bit based on the lack of professional QB talent he’s had to work with the last
couple of seasons. Palmer’s the best passer
he’s had since Warner in ’09. Floyd
figures to see quite the uptick in output this year due to Palmer’s addition as
well as impressive camp that has him in the starting lineup. Andre Roberts makes for a nice #3 receiver,
and Rob Housler is a TE with upside. The
passing game looks good on paper. The
running game on the other hand gets an incomplete grade. Rashard Mendenhall leaves Pittsburgh
for the starting job in Arizona
that he’s not getting much competition for based on Ryan Williams’ disappointing
inability to get healthy. Mendenhall
isn’t Barry Sanders, but surely he’ll put up more than LaRod Stephens-Howling’s
team leading 357 rushing yards last year.
They suffered a blow early on as first round pick and projected left
guard Jonathan Cooper sustained a knee injury that may cost him his rookie
season. He was the marquee addition to
an offensive line in need of big time help.

On defense there’s a bit of good, a bit of bad, and not much
in between. Patrick Peterson is one of
the elite of the elite athletes in the game.
In addition to developing into a shutdown corner, he’s a
highlight-making return man, and now is logging some snaps on offense. The other corner spot isn’t so secure. Jerraud Powers and Antoine Cason aren’t ideal
starters. Safety is lacking as
well. Yeremiah Bell and Rashad Johnson
are uninspiring replacements for Kerry Rhodes and Adrian Wilson, two guys who
weren’t exactly in their primes. Tyrann
Mathieu should be given every opportunity to get on the field at free safety
and line up with his former LSU teammate Peterson. Watch for him to make an impact in his first
year. With the switch at DC and in
scheme, I look for bigger years from Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett. Both figure to be freed up more in Todd
Bowles’ aggressive defense, resulting in higher sack totals and more impact
plays. Unfortunately, they’re going to be
without stud ILB Daryl Washington due to multiple off field issues. Karlos Dansby returns to Arizona
and will be counted on to pick up the slack in Washington’s absence. I like Kevin Minter to see the most time next
to Dansby inside. A continuous problem
for the Cardinals is a lack of sacks from their edge rushers. Washington
led the team in sacks last year with 9, while Sam Acho, Quentin Groves, and
O’Brien Schofield combined for 12. The
lack of an edge rushing presence and talent at corner opposite Peterson will be
the downfall of this defense.

Again, I like the strides these guys made, but they’re in
the wrong division. 8-8 would have to be
considered a very successful season.