TFMR Podcast #33 - Election Postmortem with Jim Willie

After trying to connect all week, I was finally able to track down Jim Willie back on Friday. As we got caught up and began to commiserate on the election aftermath, it dawned on me that it might be fun to start the call recorder so that you could listen in on the discussion.

What follows is unplanned and unscripted. It's just two guys chatting up a storm about current events and deeper meaning. Not a podcast really, this is more like what the guys at the NSA hear when they eavesdrop on our regular conversations.

Some of you may like it. Some of you may find it tedious. I trust, however, that most of you will at least find it somewhat interesting.

Jim Willie is an original. If you want to be official about it, you can call Jim a "statistical analyst" as Jim has a PhD in statistics from Carnegie Mellon. Since 2004, however, he's simply been known as "The Golden Jackass".

hope ~~ nope. phyzz hell yeah. in a nation voting for lack of responsibility that is the only way i can slice it. prepared for impact. proud to be part of the 1% voting for gary johnson. this week was full of sheet. i could care less what polls say let alone election results. freedom with choice. if you do not own it, nothing is yours unless you hold it. we are a county of immigrants. it is a time to recruit the best and brightest. how many votes went to obummer w/ govt assistance, great question. 47%. humm. luxury for a wealthy nation. we are not a wealthy nation. unfortunately turd is right, "we dont make stuff anymore." jimmy carter half brother....goodness me. miss lillian was joe kennedys secretary. turd you were 10!!! i have learned that what .....great grandfather of billly c was a rockafella .... dood. trade surplus / opec ~~ when that goes. so goes the dollar. '99 china lease love to listen while i type. currency wars are here and one day it will be crystal clear. bleed it out the msm is giving it to you good. if you watch that garbage. best of luck. suck. suck. qe3 40 b of mortgage + a double + "When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic". Benjamin Franklin.

of course that classic, "screw you im flippin you the bird." should we all just stop paying our mortgages? que buy the dirty crap and bury it so the housing market bottoms out to continue buy the amerikana debt. best of all is the FED is bassel and lame duck debt ceiling i think you konw what is going to happen. harry r and johnny b play on the same time. politicians are crooks. yeah we all know this. career fraud. the shame of it all. this republic of ours has lost it seams. the thread is bare. soros is doing the final count. holy mole E.

bummer the puppet had an ear piece!! good golly. benefits continue. you vote for what helps you most. republicans start wars. hah. politicians. i love the lag time audio skips too. makes these beers and smoke go smooth. b student in b school spells b corrupt. failure is the option. wow.

The dates just don't add up: Jimmy (James Earl) Carter, Jr., was born at the Wise Sanitarium[6] on October 1, 1924, (from Wikipedia), yet Joe Kennedy became Ambassador to England fourteen years after Carter's birth.

The only way it works is if Jimmy Carter is stuffed back into his Mother's womb and waits another fourteen years to re-emerge, her additional three children disappear, and she bi-locates in GA and England at the same time.

I thought Jim Willie "got it", yet after listening to this podcast where he takes more than 30 minutes to talk about the (s)election and where he makes the case that it would have actually mattered had Romney won, i feel disappointment.

TheRolling Jubilee project is seeking donations to help it buy-up distressed debts, including student loans and outstanding medical bills, and then wipe the slate clean by writing them off.

Individuals or companies can buy distressed debt from lenders at knock-down prices if it the borrower is in default or behind with payments and are then free to do with it as they see fit, including cancelling it free of charge.

As a test run the group spent $500 on distressed debt, buying $14,000 worth of outstanding loans and pardoning the debtors. They are now looking to expand their experiment nationwide and are asking people to donate money to the cause.

David Rees, one of the organisers behind the project, writes on his blog: "This is a simple, powerful way to help folks in need - to free them from heavy debt loads so they can focus on being productive, happy and healthy.

Having read a little about "hyperbolic" and "parabolic" increases in the metals I decided to research the raw data a little. I took the three or four absolute low points relative to the apparent price channels for both metals over the last eight years and sought a best fit using a formula as follows:

price year n+1 = (price year n * a)^b

I used minima on the basis that every effort is being made to lower prices, so these are the absolute minima that the market will tolerate. On the upside the amount of "froth" varies considerably, but I merely selected tops for the channels so that they encompass all historical data. In other words the minima are more significant than the maxima.

Mathematicians will correct me, but I believe these curves are more than parabolic (because they curve upward on a log chart) but they are also not truly hyperbolic (they do not tend towards a singularity). Each year there is a multiplier (a) and a power increase (b). These curves offer better fits than both parabolic and hyperbolic functions for both metals, at least in GBP.

I did the exercise without preconceived ideas about future extrapolation, but the result is an astonishing pair of price channels (extreme points fit historical lines; future extremes are obviously only an indication of what will happen if this curve is valid and persists):

All in GBP

Ag min

Ag max

Au min

Au max

2005

3.32

9.12

234.00

351.00

2006

3.82

10.50

275.71

413.57

2007

4.50

12.37

328.83

493.24

2008

5.45

14.99

397.32

595.98

2009

6.82

18.76

486.85

730.28

2010

8.86

24.37

605.60

908.40

2011

12.03

33.08

765.57

1,148.36

2012

17.19

47.27

984.73

1,477.10

2013

26.07

71.69

1,290.45

1,935.68

2014

42.40

116.59

1,725.27

2,587.90

2015

74.80

205.69

2,356.69

3,535.03

2016

145.13

399.10

3,294.36

4,941.54

2017

314.66

865.31

4,720.69

7,081.03

I am not very good at posting charts and images, but you can plot these yourself and historical extreme prices can be added in an extra column to confirm their validity. Obviously only log axes offer meaningful graphical results.

It's really something to behold when a bunch of people decide to take political action and then wipe out a politician's entire war chest, career, and backing through tactical strategies in the media. But, now days, the internet can be a great equalizer.

Covers much more ground faster than Coast to Coast ever does. Some of it actually makes sense, and some causes you to step back and at least think. After this week, JW and Alex Jones and a few others deserve a little more of my listening time I think.

I thought JW was one of the good guys - now after listening to this I have changed my mind. How can he take these puppets seriously? How can he live in Costa Rica and yet talk in barely-concealed racist undertones about `latinos`? How can he vouch for Romney who is in bed with the Fascist Nutty-Yahoo? How can he endorse winning an election by telling lies?

We the people are fed up with the lies.

So, now I have to go back and re-assess his insights into the `Eastern entities` and the new gold-backed global currency. After listening to this my original instincts seem to be borne out: that the Rothschild Empire will, in fact, take over the world at the end of this year, and run it as a giant company, using the gold that they are taking East and melting down into kilos bars.

Final Conclusion: #2 One way that Russia and China can destroy the US is by and through its vulnerable financial derivatives obligations,which are so huge and so under the gun as to be not understandable to anyone, even those who are playing.

The more likely way is through the PM markets. No more exports from Russia and China.

Unh, unh! No baby! We keep what we produce, honey. Let's see what your Central Banks try to actually buy suckers!! Answer: The cupboard is almost bare.

Keep on stacking

Well written and thought out.

<<The same applies in reverse; impair China's energy source, and you slow down her progress and prospects. Slowing down China's prospects, gives longer for China's populace to get restive and cause problems. Skewer their aspirations, through energy driven inflation, and unemployment through resultant uncompetitiveness, and the trajectory is now changed.>>

That's definitely a "Hmm" moment. Going along with that, it would fit right in with the ethanol absurdity. Less corn for China. More restrictions on domestic oil production and less production on US owned land so that we would have to import the same amount or more would fit in with that as well.

Point #1 Let's take a little closer look though at where the US gets it oil.

As you can see from the chart, the US only gets 13% of its oil from the ME. Most of it comes from Canada, Mexico, Latin America and West Africa. I'd say that's a widely diversified portfolio of suppliers, which from the US point of view is a very good thing. Oil is also extremely fungible, which means that like fiat money it can move from one place to another quickly and easily.

In contrast China has two major suppliers, Iran and Russia. But only 19% of China's energy supply comes from oil. 71% of China's energy supply comes from coal. With 800 Billion people consuming more and more coal, any wonder why there's global warming, but I digress.

Conclusion Point #1: Waging an energy war with China, imo, just doesn't cut it as a major strategic objective. It doesn't mean that our "uh hmmm" CIA leader, make that former CIA leader and military leaders don't believe that cutting China off from ME oil isn't an objective. It very well might be. I just don't think that it's a viable strategy.

Point #2: << it does not take a crystal ball to see that the rise of China, on her current trajectory, will eclipse the USA economically, and ultimately, militarily, within maybe a decade or so. I am sure that there is a team of US planners, who are acutely aware of all potential threats to US dominance, and it is their job to ensure that all potential threats will be headed off at the pass. But they don't have long, since time is on China's side, in the absence of aforementioned ambushes.>>

Rebuttal #1: I think that your crystal ball might be somewhat scratched. I agree with your emphasis: "on her current trajectory". But I don't think that there will be a current trajectory.

How can this happen when Europe, its biggest exporter is in serious recession? Only an increase in domestic consumption could account for this and they are having a huge housing bubble with new cities having been built that are uninhabited. No. This is utter nonsense. I don't believe a word of it.

Rebuttal #2: Over the next 6 to 12 months, the Chinese Communist Party is due for a total transformation via an overhaul of the Party leaders. From what I have read, there are two factions coalescing that will be vying for power. Neither of them will have the imprimatur of Deng's backing. What that means is that it is entirely possible for an outright political fight that might get really nasty. Should this result as I expect, there will be a somewhat more or less power vacuum. Within this power vacuum, there will emerge a fight for support among the various factions of the Chinese groups. Group #1 is the newly emerged manufacturers, now loaded with Renmimbi who are opposed to the State owned BK manufacturers. That is going to be the key. Winner! The privately owned Mfg's. Which faction wins them over wins the power grab.

Group #2: The urban poor, the medical care industry, and a fair and functioning court system. This group was once described as the proletariat. Marx, writing in London and surrounded by the newly arrived urban poor and squalor within which they lived, predicted a "Socialist/Communist" uprising of the urban poor. Marx would have been surprised at the Chinese agrarian Communist takeover in China. So were many others. What was missed in the China analysis was that China was 200 years behind the West. It wasn't until Clinton allowed China into the Western free trade zone and gave incentives for Western manufacturers to move to China, that China became 18th and 19th Century England, where a vast population moved from agricultural laborers to city manufacturing laborers.

This group is up for grabs and are up for sale. It is about as fissile as an nuclear reactor in Fukishima. Should a continued global slowdown or further recession in Europe occur, that effect would surely hurt China's exports and create domestic turmoil. It would also create a dynamic disequilibrium between the wage earners demands for higher wager, while at the same falling profits from the manufacturers.

Conclusion Point #2: China's future growth for the next decade will depend upon its continued domestic growth, which IMO will be far less than expected. It's an innate cultural psychology really. The Chinese, like me, like to live as economic a spartan a life as they can. They were born to it. They save as much as they can, knowing that whatever they buy will be worth less than they bought it for over time, other than gold or silver. Even as a child I never wanted expensive toys or such. I haven't as an adult. The West's delusion that there ever was a huge market in China was a simply that, a delusion.

Rebuttal #3: I think that your analysis about Syria and Hezbollah are spot on. I have heard that Iran has backed down as to increasing its fissile materials to nuclear capability. That is why there hasn't been an attack on Iran. That sounds rather plausible.

Syria's Assad is a either a dead man walking or a refuge with lots of money. Dictators are often delusional, like Hitler, etc. Assad announced that he won't leave Syria, while many of his top generals are defecting to Turkey. It's simply a matter of time.

The questions are what will replace Assad in Syra? No one knows at this point. It could be an Al Quaeda faction or any other factions. My opinion is that they will be a long going civil war between the between the Sunni Muslim majority and the minority Alawite sect to which the family of President Bashar al-Assad belongs.”

Conclusion: Rubuttal #3: Syria has devolved into a religious war with geopolitical ramifications.

Byzantium, I think you are right on about Hezbollah. I think they are already being punished financially with Syria in turmoil. Assad can't give them any money. Iran, maybe can, but in far smaller amounts than they have in the past. Without funds, Hezbollah is dust. Their operatives will move elsewhere or miracle or miracles find real legal jobs.

Final Conclusion: #1, I found you post most thought provoking. China is in no position to do anything in the ME. Period. The US is, period. Russia is in no position to do anything in the ME, period. Unless, either or both want to destroy the earth with WWII by MAD, neither China nor Russia can do anything militarily.

Final Conclusion: #2 One way that Russia and China can destroy the US is by and through its vulnerable financial derivatives obligations,which are so huge and so under the gun as to be not understandable to anyone, even those who are playing.

The more likely way is through the PM markets. No more exports from Russia and China.

Unh, unh! No baby! We keep what we produce, honey. Let's see what your Central Banks try to actually buy suckers!! Answer: The cupboard is almost bare.

I thought this recent article in Newsweek was interesting. Does this have any merit in possibly preventing hyperinflation in the US?...

Rial Emergency

"As if a relentless decline in the value of the national currency weren’t appalling enough for Iran’s citizens, three European companies that print banknotes for Tehran have announced that they will no longer do so, leaving hapless Iranians to face the prospect of a daily-dwindling supply of rials. (One is inclined, here, to offer a variation on an old Jewish joke: such bad money, and so little of it.) And yet, could a scarcity of banknotes be a blessing in disguise for the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? Could an artificially induced drying up of currency help to arrest Iran’s hyperinflation? In a conversation with Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins and a major inflation guru, this columnist learned that in the great hyperinflation in Yugoslavia in early 1994—when monthly inflation rates peaked at 313,000,000 percent—Belgrade was running the currency presses 24 hours a day, re-denominating banknotes with additional zeroes. And then the presses simply seized up physically; no more notes could be printed, and ... the hyperinflation came to an abrupt halt. “So,” the good Professor Hanke mused, “if you cut off the paper supply, maybe this would solve the biggest problem in Iran, which is inflation ... Especially as a significant proportion of Iran’s money supply is made up of notes and coins, not plastic.”"

I did the same thing you did, Katie Rose, and immediately checked the chronology using Wikipedia..it doesn't work out...However...I pulled up Carter, JFK and Clinton images on Google and was absolutely stunned that the uncanny physical resemblances of these 3 Democratic presidents had never dawned on me before!

It got me thinking about how Clinton's father also died when WJC was very very young, that he never knew him, the photo of Clinton meeting JFK in DC when he was in high school, and his prodigious talents which landed him in the governors mansion at 28 years old...and would that really be possible based on natural talent alone? A LOT of similarities between JFK and WJC

My best attempts at “going Galt”
occasionally gets interrupted by friends and neighbors in desperate need.
Unfortunately, I must fight off the urge to espouse my opinion on the various conspiracy theories discussed by Turd and Jim Willie.
Later this evening, I will have much to say,
since you have obviously opened this particular forum to discussion on certain "conspiracy theories".
I'll be a good little "Turdite" and hold myself to those you discussed with Jim.
See you all later.

When trying to enlighten those around us, interviews such as this simply undermine the effort. Why do those who propose investments in sound money have to be lumped in with those who propose ridiculous stories and radical conspiracies. I now refuse to recommend this site to people for fear that they will immediately dismiss the educational value due to the voluminous amount of junk. I don't want to risk my reputation with friends, family, and colleagues by having them think I recommend a site where such crazed theories are propagated. Furthermore, it completely undermines the value of what is trying to be taught here. Gold and silver have a big place in ones portfolio, but I wish we could simply focus on sound money and not all the other trash. I haven't even mentioned the pure garbage that now fills most of the comments on the main threads. It is to painful to wade through the idiocy to try to find the few intelligent comments. Finally, now that I know Turd buys into the radical rights racist dialog around our president - Turd , you're a birther (how sad) - my days here are over.

Hey V&B, I was a delegate to the AK state convention. I am a staunch fiscal conservative.

On this subject, let me share with you what I shared with everyone one of my fellow 2012 state delegates in AK, the day QE infinity was announced ... and after the delegates were spammed (BCC) with an email on a wholly unrelated subject ...

First off, let me commend you for being savy enough to avoid exposing the entire conservative mail list in your solicitation. Unfortunately, you are simply using the mail list which was originally exposed on Aug 9th.

I regret the mood I am in tonight, a historic point in time, so I am going to cut lose because of my love of my country.

As a deeply fiscal conservative, this last cycle has been hell on my conscience. Today, the Federal Reserve announced they will print unlimited amounts of money. I am so deeply saddened that our republic has come to this. It is an old story in history, told over and over, always with the same outcome. To say no more than this is to exercise enormous personal discipline; the currency is the blood of a nation. Our working class people earn their wages in this measure.

If you feel some sort of confidence, attacking any particular conservative group, then I suppose that is for you to embrace. For me, the math is simple arithmetic. Our Federal government spends vastly more money than it takes in as revenue. This has ended every empire in history (that didn't fall to a greater military), and ours will be no different. To clarify, the previous "reserve currencies" that ran the world were, in order from present, Britian, France, Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal. How is that status working out for them?

Republicans are not "entitlement" voters and the reserve currency status is not an entitlement; it is earned by leadership, discipline, and superiority in commerce. Precisely how we are doing any of that on the world stage is beyond me, and a source of great consternation.

And, if you are going to wear the AF on your chest, my closest, personal conservative friend is a Game Cock from SC, grew up on a farm/"dirt poor", and earned his way into an officership with the AF flying B-52s. He retired as an officer. We debated a lot of politics over a lot of beers. He is in FL building F-35s and I miss his happy-hour company (and awesome accent) dearly. You don't understand a'tall.

If you haven't figured it out, most conservatives, these days, aren't happy with the Republican party for a variety of reasons. Do we like Obama? Fsck no, we hate the sum'bitch. I wish Jackie Gleason was here to emphasize that point (hey always said it best).

But, with that said, you can stuff Romney up your ass. Your base doesn't believe you anymore. You are not conservative anymore. Not fiscally. Not religiously. Not honestly. I could rant, but I don't need to do so. You hung your own ass out to dry.

I am BCCing my buddy on this reply. I REALLY look forward to getting down to FL, snacking on some blue crabs, some beer (or scotch), and catching up. But, this "I am conservative" bull shit y'all sell a'int getting bought by me.

The truly sad truth is that Romney gave it up to Obama this cycle. I wish it weren't so, but I think it is. Why? Because if they froze FDR, thawed his ass out, slapped on some tanning lotion, and then ran his ass in front of that fat bitch Hillary then that clone would be our damn president right now. FDR scored three terms you dip shit. Do you know why? He was a populist during a depression. It so pisses me off that Republican leadership is so damn arrogant as to run a "small tent" campaign in this election.

You are either dumb asses or working for the other team!

Ron Paul was NEVER going to win a damn anything this cycle. Just stop with the damn RP crap, OK? Bask in your glow of anti-Paul victory. All he was going to get was a speaking slot, some applause, maybe some camera time, and that was it. That was the best case scenario for RP. Yet, he brought a huge number of voters to the conservative tent ... that the Republican party didn't want.

Did I support Ron Paul? Of course, because he was the ONLY fiscally conservative candidate in the cycle.

Romney, in spite of 100% certain victory, managed to completely alienate the entire RP base. Exactly where in the rules of politics is winning about pissing away voters? All the RP fans are young voters with conservative values. RP is an idea, but it is an idea that resonates with the electorate; an electorate that VOTES. This is the Reagan cycle repeating. And you worthless pieces of shit screwed it up!

This has to be the dumbest damn political move in history. And by political history, I have to trot out the "time line" by which I qualify my previous statement:

Do me a favor. Buy both of those and hang 'em in your office. The republican party leadership managed to single highhandedly wreck this entire election. I am so damn pissed, I can not see straight.

Regards,

Cooter

On Thu, Sep 13, 2012 at 7:18 PM, ... wrote:

Howdy all –

My apologies for bothering all of you with this note. It appears we may have elected a young lady as one of our electors who is publicly not willing to do her sworn duty.

From an AP article today reprinted in boston.com, one Kathleen Miller from Alaska is described as follows:

Along with the three electors looking at alternatives, Nevada GOP elector Ken Searles said he may vote for Paul as a protest, so long as his vote wouldn’t change the outcome of the election. Another elector, Kathleen Miller in Alaska, said she is planning to vote for Romney but left open the possibility of a Paul vote if the outcome of the election was certain and Republican leaders continued what she called ‘‘shenanigans.’’

The article describes Paulians elected as Republican members of the Electoral College reneging on their sworn duty and it appears we have one on our hands up here. The common thread is Ron Paul. You can find the article at the link below:

Might be something we want to discuss the weekend of 22 Sept. for if the young lady is not up to doing her sworn duty and is willing to tell AP about it, perhaps she ought to resign and be replaced by someone that will do their duty. I am a cranky old AF retiree and am silly enough in my old age to believe that one ought to do what they say they were going to do when put into a position of trust by voters. But that’s just me and I am not nearly as enlightened as the Ron Paul aficionados currently in the party.

Feel free to call with questions or comments. Note that I did leave a message with Joe Miller but no response yet. Cheers –

I don't think so. Aren't most dollars 'electronic' and/or held outside of the US? I would think that foreigners dumping 'dollars' en masse would be sufficient to cause hyperinflation. Just my opinion......

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