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3232Which catchers get strikes at the top of the zone?https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/03/21/which-catchers-get-strikes-at-the-top-of-the-zone/
https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/03/21/which-catchers-get-strikes-at-the-top-of-the-zone/#respondThu, 21 Mar 2019 15:15:28 +0000http://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/?p=4139The Houston Astros have long valued pitch framing. Over the last five seasons, only one team — the Dodgers — have saved more runs via framing than the Astros. (You can now find this and the rest of our Strike Zone Runs Saved data on FanGraphs, under the rSZ column within the Fielding leaderboards.)

So it was noteworthy when Houston signed Robinson Chirinos to a one-year contract in December. Chirinos has historically rated as a negative pitch framer, including -6 Strike Zone Runs Saved in 2018.

“I told A.J. [Hinch] this (that) last year the pitch I was struggling (with) was the high pitch,” Chirinos said Thursday. “When I signed here in December, I knew from facing all these guys how they like to pitch. That high pitch is a pitch they use a lot.”

Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander were among the league leaders at throwing fastballs in the upper-third of the zone and above in 2018. Yet it’s an area that Chirinos may not be comfortable with.

So where does Chirinos rank among other backstops at getting high strikes?

Using BIS’s pitch-charting data and standard strike zone, let’s consider called pitches (balls and called strikes) in approximately the top-fifth of the zone, plus a little above it and off the edges — essentially the area bordered in black here:

The pitches in this area have a borderline called-strike expectation. Anything higher or further outside is very likely to be a ball; anything lower (in the zone) is very likely to be a strike.

Among the 35 catchers with the most pitches caught in this area in 2018, here were the ten best at getting called strikes:

Rank

Catcher

Strikes

Pitches

Strike Rate

1

Yadier Molina

521

1167

44.6%

2

Sandy Leon

314

720

43.6%

3

Wilson Ramos

383

925

41.4%

4

Austin Hedges

367

900

40.8%

5

Luke Maile

213

529

40.3%

6

Chris Iannetta

312

779

40.1%

7

Max Stassi

228

579

39.4%

8

Kevin Plawecki

249

638

39.0%

9

Omar Narvaez

255

660

38.6%

10

Christian Vazquez

267

692

38.6%

And here were the ten worst:

Rank

Catcher

Strikes

Pitches

Strike Rate

35

J.T. Realmuto

246

895

27.5%

34

Yan Gomes

217

789

27.5%

33

Manny Pina

183

648

28.2%

32

Tucker Barnhart

294

956

30.8%

31

Jonathan Lucroy

262

848

30.9%

30

Francisco Cervelli

256

821

31.2%

29

Devin Mesoraco

185

588

31.5%

28

Kurt Suzuki

224

699

32.0%

27

Willson Contreras

304

934

32.5%

26

Robinson Chirinos

269

810

33.2%

Chirinos does, in fact, appear among the trailers here. Meanwhile, Houston’s other catcher, Max Stassi, rates near the top. Stassi was tied with Yasmani Grandal and Tyler Flowers for the Strike Zone Runs Saved lead in 2018.

The Red Sox, Cardinals, and Mets all appear to be taking advantage here. Those teams ranked first, second, and third, respectively, in throwing the highest percentage of overall pitches in the area we outlined. (The Astros were eighth.)

And their catchers were strong at getting strikes there. Boston’s Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez were both among the top ten at getting strikes in that area in 2018. The Cardinals’ Yadier Molina was the very best. And although the Mets traded Kevin Plawecki (8th) to Cleveland, they signed Wilson Ramos (3rd) to play behind the plate. (Pitching up in the zone was a key for Jacob deGrom in his Cy Young season.)

Finally, we can also visualize how catchers differ in framing various parts of the zone. Here’s a look at Chirinos:

This image compares Chirinos’ ability to get called strikes in each location to the league average. The red areas are where he’s better than average, and the blue areas are where he’s worse than average. As expected, we see a lot of blue at the top of the zone.

And here’s a look at Molina, who ranked first on the above leaderboard and excels at getting high strikes (but not so much at low ones):

Those who follow baseball closely knows that same-side changeups are extremely rare. They make much more sense thrown to opposite-side hitters, as a means to neutralize the platoon advantage. From 2016 to 2018, there were 160,371 pitches thrown by left-handed pitchers to left-handed hitters. Only 4 percent (6,421) of those pitches were changeups. Looking at this another way, just 9 percent of all changeups thrown by left-handed pitchers from 2016 to 2018 were to left-handed hitters.

But there is a left-handed pitcher who likes to throw his changeup to lefties a lot more than the norm. Luis Avilán, signed by the Mets this offseason, has one of the most interesting repertoires in baseball. He’s a left-handed reliever who has thrown his changeup almost half the time in each of the past three seasons.

Of the 55 left-handed pitchers who have thrown at least 500 changeups over the past three seasons, Avilan throws changeups to left-handed hitters far more often than anybody else.

Highest % of Changeups by LHP vs LHB (since 2016)

Luis Avilán

41.3%

Joey Lucchesi

35.2%

Jorge De La Rosa

30.7%

Jason Vargas

21.7%

David Price

17.2%

Tyler Anderson

17.0%

Alex Wood

16.0%

Avilán clearly loves to throw his changeup to lefties. His percentage is also a bit more of an outlier than it seems, because Joey Lucchesi’s “changeup” acts more like a curveball. In 2018, Lucchesi’s changeup averaged about a half an inch of glove-side run. Avilán’s changeup averaged about 6.5 inches of arm-side run, which is much more normal for a changeup.

Avilan’s
changeup usage over the past three years is not only an anomaly when compared
to the rest of the league, but it’s a drastic change that he made from earlier
in his career. He made his big league debut in 2012, and for the first four
years of his career he threw nearly 1,400 pitches to lefties. Only 53 of those
pitches were changeups, which comes out to under four percent.

Clearly, Avilán made some major adjustments to his approach. It’s possible that the Dodgers told Avilán to start using his changeup more after his trade from Atlanta in July of 2015. With Atlanta in 2015, Avilán threw 10 percent changeups to lefties. After moving to LA, he threw 17 percent changeups to lefties. In a fairly small sample, Avilán increased his changeup rate at a pretty significant clip.

With this change in approach, Avilán also saw an increase in strikeout rate. During the first four months of 2015 with Atlanta, he struck out 20 percent of hitters and with the Dodgers it jumped to 27 percent. And look at the difference in his strikeout rate and FIP as the lefty-changeup rate increased the last three seasons with the Dodgers, White Sox and Phillies.

Luis Avilán

2012-2015

2016-2018

K%

17.9%

27.7%

FIP

3.46

2.87

IP

197.7

111

Avilán isn’t the only lefty who went from Atlanta to Los Angeles to make a change like that (pardon the pun). Alex Wood, who was in the same trade as Avilán back in 2015, saw a significant spike in his changeup usage against left-handed hitters as well. Looking back at the table above, you’ll find that Wood has the seventh-highest changeup rate against lefties from 2016-2018, 16 percent. Wood debuted with the Braves in 2013 and for the first three years of his career, he only threw changeups to lefties 9 percent of the time. But unlike Avilán, Wood didn’t see too much change in his results after heading to LA.

Avilán now brings his approach to a Mets team with a significant need for a left-handed reliever after going through major bullpen issues last season. He will be one of the more interesting follows in 2019.

It’s a question to consider for those evaluating their teams and conducting their fantasy drafts. Though there are no guarantees that the numbers will even out and that the player will return to his expected norms, understanding who overachieved and underachieved provides context to a player’s past performance.

Our defense-independent batting statistics (DIBS) can give expected results on every ball in play for a hitter by comparing the ball’s trajectory, direction and velocity to other similar batted balls and assigning value based on those results. We can then compare those to his actual offensive numbers to determine if a player underachieved or overachieved.

In other words, these numbers can tell us if a player may have hit into hard luck, played in an unfriendly ballpark, or been the victim of some good defense. Or perhaps he hit into good luck, got a few ballpark-friendly hits, or took advantage of some poor defense.

Here’s a look back at several players from 2018, along with their projections for 2019.

Overachievers

Before the start of last season, Mookie Betts made the underachiever list. He was coming off a 2017 in which he hit .264/.344/.459 when the batted-ball profile was that of a .297 batting average and .886 OPS hitter. It was noted then “There’s not much reason for concern, and at 25 he should be an MVP-caliber player.”

Much that went against Betts in 2017 turned in his favor in 2018. He won AL MVP honors in 2018, though the data indicated his numbers were better than what they likely should have been.

Betts hit 32 home runs, six above expectations, and 47 doubles, nine above expectations. His 1.078 OPS was 133 points higher than expected, though even if it had just met expectations (.945), he still would have had a great season. The 133 points were the most above expectations for any player with at least 250 plate appearances in 2018.

Betts was joined by J.D. Martinez and Steve Pearce in having the biggest positive differential between expected OPS and actual OPS. Martinez’s OPS was boosted by hitting 43 home runs, 10 more than the data indicated he was expected to hit.

Betts’ 2019 projection: .303 BA, .923 OPS, 29 HR in 614 AB

Martinez’s 2019 projection: .294 BA, .929 OPS, 36 HR in 555 AB

Pearce’s 2019 projection: .262 BA, .806 OPS, 14 HR in 313 AB

The player with the highest OPS above expectations who wasn’t on the Red Sox was Carlos Gonzalez, who hit .276 with a .796 OPS last season. Gonzalez’s batting average and OPS were 41 and 105 points above his expected performance respectively. Gonzalez was likely helped by Coors Field, where he hit .315 with a .941 OPS compared to .241 and .663 on the road. He’ll move to less-friendly Progressive Field as a member of the Indians in 2019.

Gonzalez 2019 projection: .271 BA, .814 OPS, 24 HR in 542 AB

Giancarlo Stanton is the one other player whose 2018 OPS was at least 100 points above expectation. Yankee Stadium likely helped a bit here as Stanton’s 38 home runs were seven more than the batted-ball data suggested he would hit. He had never been more than three home runs above expectations in a season while with the Marlins.

Stanton 2019 projection: .260 BA, .887 OPS, 42 HR in 574 AB

Underachievers

Angels shortstop Zack Cozart hit .219 with a .658 OPS while dealing with injuries in 2018, not what the team had in mind when it signed him to a three-year deal last offseason. Cozart’s numbers were a bit out of whack given where he hit the ball and how hard he hit the ball.

His expected batting average and OPS were .287 and .819 respectively. The 161-point differential between his OPS and expected OPS was the biggest negative differential between those stats in MLB.

Cozart’s 2019 projection: .259 BA, .744 OPS, 13 HR in 421 AB

Dodgers center fielder A.J. Pollock is another player whose numbers should have looked a little better. His .800 OPS in 2018 was 106 points below what was expected from his batted balls. Pollock, who finished his tenure with the Diamondbacks in 2018, may have been hurt by Chase Field’s humidor, as the ballpark was not the hitter-friendly place for right-handed batters that it had been in the past. It will be interesting to see how Pollock performs with his new team, the Dodgers, in 2019. His projected OPS (noted below) is right in line with his 2018 OPS.

Pollock’s 2019 projection: .266 BA, .804 OPS, 19 HR in 466 AB

One of the top prospects last season was Marlins center fielder Lewis Brinson, who hit a disappointing .199 with a .577 OPS in just over 400 plate appearances. Brinson should have been something closer to an average player in 2018 as his batted balls merited more home runs (15 expected, 11 hit) and a higher BABIP (.322 expected, .257 overall).

Brinson’s expected batting average and OPS for 2018 were .242 and .697. He got off to a hot start this spring and it will be worth watching to note if there is any carryover into his 2019 season.

Brinson’s 2019 projection: .219 BA, .644 OPS, 13 HR in 398 AB

A reminder that you can purchase the updated 2019 Bill James Player Projections at this link

The Athletics were one of the surprise teams in baseball last season, winning the second AL Wild Card and challenging the Astros for the AL West title.

Chances are that you know the Athletics had the best defensive player in baseball last season in third baseman Matt Chapman. But they were also good at something that had almost nothing to do with Chapman.

As you can see in the newly-listed numbers on Fangraphs, Oakland ranked second in MLB with 36 Shift Runs Saved, trailing only the 39 by the Diamondbacks. It’s largely the reason that the Athletics led the AL in overall Defensive Runs Saved.

Most Shift Runs Saved – 2018 Season

Diamondbacks

39

Athletics

36

Rays

31

Twins

31

Tigers

30

Those two teams used shifts at dramatically different
volumes. The Diamondbacks ranked eighth in the number of shifts they used on balls
in play with 1,391. The Athletics ranked 25th, utilizing 883. But the Athletics
got great value out of the instances in which they did shift.

So what were the characteristics of the Athletics’ shift that
allowed them to be so good despite the minimal usage, relative to the rest of MLB?

Strategic Change

In 2017, the Athletics used full shifts (ones with three infielders on the pull side) and partial shifts (two infielders on each side, but at least two fielders significantly deviating from normal positioning) about the same number of times (170 ground balls and short line drives into full shifts vs. 188 into partials). That’s a recipe for trouble. Full shifts are far more effective than partial shifts at thwarting base hits on grounders and short liners.

Athletics Shifting Notes

* Changed approach to use more full shifts

* Switched up where Lowrie and Semien stood

* Great vs. right-handed batters

Case in point: the Athletics allowed a .182 batting average on those type of batted balls against full shifts that season and a .340 batting average on them in partial shifts.

In 2018, the Athletics changed approaches. They used full shifts more than twice as often as partial shifts. Their success on full shifts continued. Opponents hit .162 against them on their grounders and liners, the second-lowest batting average allowed in MLB. And with greater selectivity on partial shifts, opponents’ batting average came down as well (.257 on grounders and liners).

Sure-handed Middle Infielders

The Athletics did something a little different than most teams and different than they had in 2017, sometimes playing their shortstop, Marcus Semien, in shallow right field when they shifted a left-handed batter. They took second baseman Jed Lowrie out of that spot and moved him to a spot more in line with where a shortstop would play in the shift. Semien is five years younger than Lowrie and can cover more ground. The move worked well for both.

Semien, a much-improved defensive player in 2019 in non-shift
situations, was highly valuable in this defensive alignment. Of the A’s 36 Runs
Saved from shifts, 7 came from Semien, up from 2 the previous season.

Similarly, the Athletics got 7 Shift Runs Saved on balls in which Lowrie was the primary fielder in a shift, up from -2 on a similar number of balls the previous season.

Unrelated, but worth noting: The Athletics recorded only one run saved on balls hit to Chapman in shifts. This success was mostly about Lowrie and Semien (with a little help from Matt Olson).

When shifting a righty, it almost always worked

The Athletics were infrequent shifters of right-handed
hitters, but when they used a shift, it usually did the trick. Righties who hit
a ground ball against an A’s shift had a .165 reached-base percentage (how
often they reached on hit or error) on 79 ground balls. They reached 13 times
when the average hitter would have reached 22.

That’s not a large sample by any means, but it shows how
the Athletics helped themselves in the stat by converting these outs.

Outlook

The Athletics’ infield defense returns its two
cornerstones in Matt Olson and Chapman at first and third, as well as Semien at
shortstop. They’ll break in a new second baseman in Jurickson Profar, whose
major league experience at the position consists of a little more than 500
innings. He’ll replace Lowrie, who signed with the Mets this offseason.

The things to watch will be whether Semien maintains his
improvement and whether Profar is comfortable in Oakland’s defensive alignments.
Also worth keeping an eye on is the Athletics’ shift usage, both in total and in
how often they play three infielders on the pull side. They’ll likely need
similar success to contend with the Astros again.

]]>https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/03/19/athletics-got-an-a-for-their-shift-defense-in-2018/feed/22019 Oakland Athletics Photo DaymarksimonsisTwo Trades Overshadow an Eventful Start to Free Agencyhttps://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/03/13/two-trades-overshadow-an-eventful-start-to-free-agency/
https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/03/13/two-trades-overshadow-an-eventful-start-to-free-agency/#respondWed, 13 Mar 2019 17:33:04 +0000http://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/?p=4037The league season is still a few hours from officially starting, and yet the last week has been among the most chaotic in recent memory. While record-breaking contracts have been given out left and right, the two biggest moves actually came via trade, as Antonio Brown was sent to the Raiders and Odell Beckham Jr. was sent to the Browns.

Odell to the Browns

Baker Mayfield excelled last season under then-interim OC Freddie Kitchens. From weeks 9 through 17, Mayfield posted an Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) of 112.1, the fourth-best rating during that stretch, and a Yards per Attempt (Y/A) of 8.6, trailing only Patrick Mahomes by a tenth of a yard. With Kitchens now the head coach and with Baker having his first full offseason of preparation, that high level of play was already expected to continue into 2019. But now with Beckham in the fold, the Browns’ offense has the potential to be among the league’s most dangerous.

In 2018, Beckham was only targeted on throws more than 15 yards downfield 36 times, a criminally low rate for such a dangerous player. For reference, Julio Jones saw 65 such targets. To make matters worse, Eli Manning ranked 22nd in On-Target% (57.9) and 25th in IQR (81.2) on those throws.

Beckham should expect to be targeted downfield much more often with the Browns. During Kitchens’ tenure as OC, only Aaron Rodgers pushed the ball downfield more consistently than Mayfield. On those throws, Mayfield posted an On-Target% of 62.5 and an IQR 109.7, which ranked as the fifth- and seventh-best marks in the league during that span. Beckham should immediately become Mayfield’s go-to guy downfield, and Jarvis Landry can work the short and intermediate parts of the field where he is more comfortable. (In 2016 and 2017, 33 percent of Landry’s targets came on slants, drags, or screens, compared to only 21 percent in 2018.)

On the other end of the deal, this trade leaves the Giants in a precarious position, even before considering the dead salary cap ramifications. They’re only a handful of years away from owing Barkley a huge pay day, and have managed to trade away most of their young talent, all while not making any real effort to find a replacement for Eli. Maybe their quarterback of the future falls to them at the sixth pick this year, or maybe they use their new first round pick in a package to move up and draft their guy, but it’s hard to see a path to quick rebuild for the Giants.

The Browns also find themselves in an unfamiliar spot: betting favorites in the AFC North. It feels crazy to say about a team that is only two years removed from a winless season, but with a strong cast of skill position players on offense and a couple of young playmakers on defense, the Browns appear to be a legitimate threat in the AFC this year. It is possible that OBJ is the final piece in what has been a remarkably quick turnaround.

Brown to the Raiders

Raiders get: Antonio BrownSteelers get: 66th pick, 141st pick

This time last year, the Steelers were legitimate Super Bowl contenders. They had a future HOF quarterback; Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell who were both arguably the best at their respective positions; and young budding talent in players like JuJu Smith-Schuster. Fast forward to now, the Steelers are fresh off of their first playoff miss since 2013, and have managed to turn their two best players into a 3rd round pick, a 5th round pick, and $21 million of dead cap.

The Raiders, on the other hand, appeared to be entering a full on rebuild last year when they shipped their best player off to Chicago, but are seemingly trying to expedite that rebuilding process with this trade. Given the incredibly low price tag and their plethora of draft capital, it is hard to blame them.

Brown provides immediate help for an offense that mostly struggled in its first season under Jon Gruden. Derek Carr was efficient, completing 68.9% of his passes, but struggled to find big plays. His Y/A of 7.3 ranked as only 20th-best among QBs with at least 200 attempts. Despite his age, Brown should provide an immediate impact downfield. On throws of at least 15 yards, Brown turned 52 targets into 614 yards and 9 touchdowns. Raiders receivers as a whole had 1,029 yards and 7 touchdowns on such throws. The Raiders are hoping Brown can turn into the consistent downfield threat they thought they were getting with Amari Cooper.

Brown can also provide additional value in the shallow routes that are the staple of Gruden’s offense. While the Raiders were mostly efficient on these routes last year (they completed 81% of slants), Brown provides the big play threat and YAC ability that the Raiders lacked. Brown’s 8.8 YAC per reception on slant routes last year ranked 2nd in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill. Raiders receivers as a whole averaged only 6.4 YAC per reception, and only 5.3 if you remove Cooper from that equation.

A lot of the Raiders’ success this season will depend on what their three first round picks turn into, but Brown provides a clear boost to an offense lacking in playmakers. He should immediately become Carr’s favorite target and be the focal point of an offense hoping to turn things around this season.

We began tracking four-man outfields on balls in play at Baseball Info Solutions last season, with Lucas Duda (12), Matt Olson (6), Joey Gallo (6), and Justin Smoak (5) being the most impacted sluggers.

This could be a strategy that we see a lot more of in 2019. So who are some other top candidates to face a four-man outfield? August Fagerstrom went through a similar exercise for FanGraphs in 2016, and Devan Fink did so for Beyond the Box Score in 2017.

Using BIS charting data for 2018, let’s find batters who hit few groundballs to the non-pull side of the infield (so you can leave that side of the infield vacated) and also hit a lot of balls in the air to the outfield (so your fourth infielder might be more useful out there). Those on both lists are bolded for emphasis.

Obviously there’s a correlation between those two variables. But which players are among the most extreme? Take a look at the hitters in the upper left of this graph.

Besides Gallo (who, as noted, faced a handful of four-man outfields last year and will likely see more in 2019), it appears that Matt Carpenter, Jay Bruce, and Rhys Hoskins are among the most extreme examples and could be candidates to see the strategy. Others near the top include Curtis Granderson (who saw one four-man outfield last season) and, interestingly, Daniel Descalso (who notably changed his swing and hit far fewer grounders in 2018).

Carpenter is perhaps a very obvious example. He had the lowest groundball percentage among qualified batters last season, and almost all of those grounders were pulled. Check out his spray chart:

(The blue contour lines track the density of balls hit in the infield; the red lines track the density of balls hit to the outfield.)

Carpenter barely hits any grounders to the left side of the infield, while hitting a high volume of balls all over the outfield.

The Cubs tried a four-man outfield against Carpenter last year … and he responded with a bunt single. Yet taking away the possibility of an extra-base hit was a result the Cubs were likely okay with.

Hoskins understands that and may not be one to change his approach. When asked about the four-man outfields that Harper has been seeing, Hoskins told Matt Breen of The Inquirer: “It doesn’t make you do anything different, because as soon as you try to do something different, they win. If I’m trying to hit a ground ball to the right side, then they’ve done their job and I’m not doing mine. You don’t want me to bunt, I promise you.”

Hoskins very much looks like a four-man outfield candidate himself. While Carpenter had the lowest groundball rate in baseball, Hoskins was right behind him and also pulled an extreme amount of those balls.

Of course, extreme infield shifting of right-handed hitters can be difficult. The first baseman can’t venture too far away from the bag, or else a significant hole can be created on the right side. Yet Hoskins almost never hits grounders over there, and he yanks a ton to where the third baseman and shortstop typically play. Given his high volume of balls to the outfield, it could be something that his opponents consider.

As for Harper, if you were to find him on the scatter plot above, he’d be in the mix of players between 5-10 percent for non-pull grounder and liner rate and 35-40 percent for outfield air ball rate. He’s among the players who fit the mold, though not necessarily an extreme by this rudimentary methodology.

One of the storylines to follow for new Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper this season will be how he fares defensively. Harper’s defense cost the Nationals 26 runs last season, tied with new teammate Rhys Hoskins for second-worst in the majors. Harper struggled defensively in both right field, where he’ll likely play for the Phillies, and center field, where he played just under 500 innings for the Nationals in 2018.

Harper’s performance last season was about more than his inability to turn batted balls into outs at a high rate. Harper also cost his team with his troubles deterring baserunner advancement. Harper had -6 Outfield Arm Runs Saved last season, by far the worst total of his career (he saved five runs in the previous two seasons combined). He cost the Nationals five of those six runs in right field. From that position, Harper did not record any baserunner “kills” (a BIS term for throwing out a runner trying to advance without the help of a cutoff man). From 2015 to 2017, Harper totaled 16 assists in right field without using a cutoff man.

Baseball Info Solutions Video Scouts chart defensive plays, categorizing them as “Good Fielding Plays” and “Defensive Misplays & Errors.” Harper had five Defensive Misplays & Errors that were grouped as “Wasted Throw After Hit/Error” that allowed a runner to take an extra base. The only players with more were Billy Hamilton and Ender Inciarte, who had seven.

Harper is not the only star player to have a poor Outfield Arm Runs Saved total. In fact, one of the trailers in that stat is 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich. Yelich cost his team seven runs with his arm, four in left field and three in right. Yelich has had this problem wherever he’s played. In 2017, he played the entire season in center field and cost the Marlins six runs with his arm. He did save four runs for the Brewers overall, making up for his arm issues with good Range & Positioning numbers.

Another big free agent signee, A.J. Pollock, brings a lot of skill to center field with the Dodgers. However, his arm cost the Diamondbacks six runs at that position in 2018. Pollock allowed 71 percent of baserunners to take an extra base on a base hit (go first-to-third or second-to-home on a single, or first-to-home on a double). That was the highest advancement rate allowed by center fielders last season. In a smaller sample, Harper allowed a 67 percent advancement rate.

Though Harper, Yelich, and Pollock are extremely valuable position players, they would be even more valuable if they can improve upon this aspect of their games in 2019.

Earlier today, Jason Witten decided to postpone his career in the broadcast booth and return to the football field. He is coming out of retirement for his 16th season with the Cowboys. But will his return be a success and help the Cowboys return to the playoffs and compete for a title?

Witten’s 2017 season (the last season he played) was, by just about every statistical measure, his worst in the NFL since his rookie year. Outside of his rookie year, 2017 saw him produce a career low in receptions, yards, and yards per reception. So it’s fair to wonder how much he has left, especially after spending last season in the booth.

Comparing his stats to the Cowboys’ TE unit from last season also paints a negative picture of his potential value in 2019.

Jason Witten Vs Cowboys’ TE’s in 2018

Season

Player

Rec

Yds

Yds/Tgt

TDs

2016

Jason Witten

69

673

7.1

3

2017

Jason Witten

63

560

6.4

5

2018

All Dal TE’s

68

710

7.8

4

The Cowboys’ TE’s basic stat production was better in 2018 than with Witten in 2016 and 2017. When compared to Witten, the group of Blake Jarwin, Geoff Swaim, Dalton Schultz, and Rico Gathers accounted for a similar number of receptions, more yards, more yards per target, and a similar amount of touchdowns in 2018. It should be noted that during 2016 and 2017 seasons, Witten accounted for 87.5% of the Cowboys’ targets towards a TE and TE’s other than Witten combined for only 19 receptions over those two years. A big factor in this is Witten’s decreased production after the catch as he aged. In 2017, he only averaged 1.7 yards after the catch, while the 2018 group of TE’s averaged 5.5 yards after the catch.

A common narrative surrounding Witten during his last two seasons was that he provided a good safety net for a young Dak Prescott. While this may have been the case, it seems that the 2018 group provided an even better safety net. The table below shows that Prescott’s production when targeting a TE increased in 2018 after Witten retired.

Dak Prescott when targeting a TE

Season

Player

Att

Comp%

On-Tgt%

Y/A

2016

Dak Prescott

105

72.4%

81.9%

7.1

2017

Dak Prescott

97

71.1%

78.4%

6.9

2018

Dak Prescott

91

74.7%

85.7%

7.8

Along with replacing him as a receiver, the 2018 group also did a good job of replacing him as a blocker. In both 2016 and 2017, Witten was asked to block on more plays than any other TE in the NFL. He was solid as a blocker, but the 2018 group of TE’s was even better, blowing only 5 blocks all season.

Season

Player

Blocking Snaps

Blown Block %

2016

Jason Witten

514

1.3%

2017

Jason Witten

488

1.6%

2018

All Dal TE’s

625

0.1%

In 2017, Jason Witten had 17.7 Total Points Earned (SIS’s overall value metric) from his receiving production. Cowboy’s TE’s in 2018 combined for 27.6 Total Points Earned from their receiving production.

Based on the numbers Witten had clearly declined during the last few years of his career, which should be expected of a TE in his late 30’s. So expecting him to provide much of a spark to the Cowboy’s offense in 2019 is a stretch, especially since the group that collectively replaced him has fared pretty well last season.

Earlier this offseason, a number of writers were talking about how Bryce Harper’s vicious, left-handed swing was “made for Yankee Stadium,” making pinstripes a perfect fit for the young star who grew up a Yankees fan.

That thought intrigued us, so we looked a bit deeper to see which ballpark would be an ideal fit.

In 2018, Yankee Stadium ranked second in park factors for HRs as a LHB with a factor of 132, just behind Angels Stadium’s 134. Last season Harper pulled 42 percent of balls in play, not far from his career pull percentage of 39 percent, which looks perfect for a stadium in which the fence is 314 feet down the right field line (much to the ire of opposing teams).

Digging a bit deeper into the splits shows that the frequency with which Harper pulls balls in play is skewed dramatically by his ground ball tendencies, pulling 62 percent of grounders to the right-third of the field However, on fly balls, Harper hit the ball the other way 50 percent of the time and pulled the ball just 16 percent.

As park factors are better at showing league trends than individual performance, our R&D department then looked at every Bryce Harper fly ball over the last two seasons and calculated how many of the flies would have gone out at each park.

We then divided by his total number of games played over the last two seasons and multiplied by 81 to bring it in to the context of a full season’s worth of games at the home park.

A few caveats to this exercise: we were unable to incorporate factors such as wall height, atmosphere, and wind speed and direction in these calculations. To account for this, a five-foot cushion was incorporated into the calculation, giving the total he likely would have hit at each park.

The results came out with Yankee Stadium as just the 10th best park for Harper to pick up a few extra homers on the season. Citizens Bank Park, on the other hand, was second with about 24 balls projected to go out. For context, the difference between Citizens Bank Park and Nationals Park was 5.7 extra home runs at home over a season.

Conservatively rounding down, an extra five homers this season would have brought Harper’s total up to 39 (good for tied for 4th in baseball). Depending on what the original result of these batted balls were, Harper’s OPS would jump from .889 (16th) to anywhere between .908 (if all the added home runs were originally doubles) to .933 (if they were originally outs). Manny Machado, for those interested, had a .905 OPS this season, good for 11th.

We’re not the only ones to feel confident about Harper’s home run performance. A study earlier this winter came to a similar conclusion.

Also noteworthy is the lone park that came out ahead of Citizens Bank Park- Minute Maid Park in Houston. On November 10, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote an article about how Houston and Washington had a deal in place to move Harper ahead of the non-waiver trade deadline that was ultimately rejected by Nationals ownership. As we mentioned, we were not able to put these balls into context with wall height, so it’s fair to assume at least a few of these would end up as doubles or even long singles considering the 19-foot high wall in left field, but it’s fun to imagine how things could have shaken out differently if the Astros had Harper in the lineup in their title defense.

With this said, the Astros were never concretely connected to the 26-year old superstar this offseason, whereas the Phillies had said they were willing to pay “stupid money” and appeared to be the most aggressive suitor in the Harper sweepstakes. This could be both the best available financial option for Bryce as well as the best statistical career option for him in the long run.

Oh, and by the way, Harper doesn’t even come out as the biggest home run gainer using this system. New Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto comes out eight home runs ahead if we compare Citizens Bank Park to Marlins Park.

]]>https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/02/28/citizens-bank-park-is-ideal-for-bryce-harpers-power/feed/0patrickrowley2570Who has been a better defender at third base: Arenado or Machado?https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/02/26/who-has-been-a-better-defender-at-third-base-arenado-or-machado/
https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/02/26/who-has-been-a-better-defender-at-third-base-arenado-or-machado/#respondTue, 26 Feb 2019 21:06:19 +0000http://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/?p=4007With Manny Machado signing a 10-year contract with the Padres and Nolan Arenado inking an eight-year extension with the Rockies, the question comes to mind: Which one of them has been the better defensive third baseman?

Machado is moving back to third base this season after
playing most of 2018 at shortstop for the Orioles and Dodgers. He has saved 84
runs in just shy of 6,500 innings at third base, including 35 in 2013, the most
in a season by any player since Defensive Run Saved (DRS) was first compiled in
2003.

Machado’s career total amounts to 13 DRS per 1,000
innings.

Arenado has saved 109 runs in a little less than 7,500
career innings. That comes out to 14.6 per 1,000 innings. It’s fair to say that
Arenado has fared a little better over the course of his career, though not
overwhelmingly so.

The difference between Arenado and Machado is minimal
when it comes to Range & Positioning. Both are good at turning balls hit
down the line and “straight on” (the area where a third baseman typically
plays) into outs. Arenado is a little better when it comes to balls hit in the
shortstop-third base hole.

But Arenado has accumulated a big edge in Runs Saved from
Good Fielding Plays & Defensive Misplays. He has 14 for his career,
compared to 1 for Machado.

Good Fielding Plays & Misplays are charted by Video Scouts using criteria originally designed by Bill James and modified by BIS staff. They account for situations in which a player made an above-average effort to make a play, or in the case of Defensive Misplays, erring in a way that had a negative consequence.

Examples of Good Fielding Plays include Web Gems such as
the kind you would see on a highlight reel, but also things like preventing a
single from being a double by cutting it off, or making a quick pivot to
convert a double play. Misplays can be something like slipping, breaking in the
wrong direction, or failing to hustle during a play.

Here are some types of Good Plays & Misplays in which Arenado has some of his biggest advantages.

Type of Play

Arenado Career

Machado Career

Arenado Advantage

Cutting off a runner at home

12

6

3.8 runs

Keeping the ball in the infield

14

5

2.9 runs

Giving up on the play (misplay)

1

7

2.5 runs

Good force play

16

6

1.6 runs

Arenado’s advantages come from one to two plays a year in
each of these types. Sometimes little things can make all the difference.