The "Middle East and Terrorism" Blog was created in order to supply information about the implication of Arab countries and Iran in terrorism all over the world. Most of the articles in the blog are the result of objective scientific research or articles written by senior journalists.

From the Ethics of the Fathers: "He [Rabbi Tarfon] used to say, it is not incumbent upon you to complete the task, but you are not exempt from undertaking it."

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Palestinians: The "Battle for Succession" - Khaled Abu Toameh

by Khaled Abu Toameh

Who Will Succeed Mahmoud Abbas and Does It Really Matter?

Hamas is convinced that the
Palestinian Authority (PA) will never allow elections to take place in
the West Bank because of the likelihood that Hamas would win. The PA
argues that Hamas will never allow a free election in the Gaza Strip
because it does not tolerate any competition.

After Arafat died, Arafatism lived on. The same applies to
Mahmoud Abbas. No real changes, if ever, should be expected in the
Palestinian attitude towards the conflict with Israel after his
departure.

In the Gaza Strip, the Palestinians will continue to be ruled by
Hamas, an Islamist movement that has brought nothing but destruction and
disaster to Palestinians.

The question of Abbas's successor is thus rather unimportant. The
Palestinians will continue to be ruled by dictatorships that do not
give a damn about their people.

On his last visit to Cairo, Palestinian Authority (PA) President
Mahmoud Abbas reportedly told Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
that he does not intend to run in any future election.

Palestinian officials who accompanied Abbas to Cairo quoted him as
saying that he does not want to be a "president for life" and that he is
eager to see new presidential elections take place in the Palestinian
territories as soon as possible.

"My age and health don't allow me to remain in power," the 81-year-old Abbas explained.
"My term in office expired several years ago and I'm still in power
only because of the Hamas, which staged a coup and is controlling the
Gaza Strip and refusing to allow new elections."

Abbas's remarks came amid increased talk about a "battle for succession" that has been raging for weeks among the top brass of the Palestinian Authority leadership in the West Bank.

For now, it seems that there is no shortage of Palestinians who
consider themselves "natural" and "worthy" successors to Abbas, who
recently celebrated the 11th year of his four-year-term in office.

Abbas's refusal to appoint a vice president, choose a possible
successor, or share power, as well as his insistence on managing the PA
as a one-man show, has left the door wide open for speculation as to
what will happen the day he is gone.

Some Palestinians expect a smooth transition of power, while many
fear that the "battle for succession" will lead to anarchy and violence.

Palestinian journalist Munir Abu Rizek recently sounded an alarm bell when he disclosed
that some senior Palestinian officials and their supporters in the West
Bank have been purchasing weapons in preparation for the post-Abbas
era. He predicted that the anarchy that could erupt in the West Bank
would be similar to what happened in the Gaza Strip before Hamas
expelled the Palestinian Authority nearly a decade ago. Abu Rizek did
not rule out the possibility that Palestinian cities in the West Bank
would be turned into cantons ruled by rival Fatah officials and
warlords.

However, the question is not which Palestinian official will succeed
Abbas, so much as who will elect the next president and how? Besides,
does it really matter who will be the next president?

Clearly, Abbas's successor will not be elected through the ballot
box. There are no free and democratic elections in the West Bank and the
Gaza Strip. Hamas and the PA, however, disagree why this is so.

Hamas is convinced that the Palestinian Authority will never allow
elections in the West Bank because of the likelihood that Hamas would
win, as it did in the 2006 parliamentary elections.

The PA, for its part, argues that Hamas will never allow a free
election in the Gaza Strip because it does not tolerate any competition.

In any event, since Hamas and the Palestinian Authority crack down on
each other's supporters in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, no free
elections will emerge. So it is clear that an election to choose a
successor for Abbas is off the table, at least for the foreseeable
future. That is, of course, unless the PA leadership decides to hold
separate elections for the West Bank -- an option that seems to be
highly unlikely. Holding a separate vote in the West Bank would result
in Palestinians accusing the PA of "solidifying" the split between the
Gaza Strip and West Bank, thus destroying the effort to establish a
unified Palestinian state in these two areas.

Therefore, it is up to the ruling Fatah's Central Committee to elect a
new president. This body, established in 1963, is the most senior
decision-making body of the PLO and consists of twenty-one Fatah
officials, all known to be Abbas loyalists. But in recent years, the
make-up of the Committee has changed a bit.

One of its members, Othman Abu Gharbiyeh, died a few weeks ago during
open-heart surgery in an Indian hospital. Another member, Marwan
Barghouti, is currently serving a prison term of five-life sentences for
his role in terror attacks against Israelis during the Second Intifada.
A third member, Mohamed Dahlan, was expelled from Fatah five years ago
after falling out with Abbas and his sons.

Yet the Fatah leadership will not hand over the presidency to anyone
who is not from its ranks, not even an independent and widely-respected
figure such as former Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.

So the decision as to who will replace Abbas will be in the hands of
18 senior Fatah officials -- all members of the faction's Central
Committee. The last time this committee held internal elections was in
July 2009, when Abbas was elected as chairman.

More than half of the Committee members have announced their lack of
interest in succeeding Abbas. But that may change the day after Abbas's
departure. Indeed, Abbas's presence seems to discourage any such
ambition. The PA president has expelled any Fatah official suspected of
setting his eyes on the presidency. Mohamed Dahlan is the best example
of how Abbas is quick to get rid of any official who may pose a threat
to his throne. Since his expulsion from Fatah, Dahlan has been forced to
relocate to the United Arab Emirates, after Abbas accused him of
corruption and murder.

Six of the Committee members are over the age of 70, while most are
in their 60s. Only two of them are in their 50s: Marwan Barghouti and
Hussein Sheikh. But those two are not considered serious successors,
although some public opinion polls have shown that many Palestinians
would vote for Barghouti.

Today, Palestinians point to at least three candidates whose chances
of succeeding Abbas are strong: Saeb Erekat, Mohammed Shtayyeh and Majed
Faraj.

Erekat and Shtayyeh are members of the Fatah Central Committee, while
Faraj, who is also a senior Fatah official, heads the Palestinian
Authority's General Intelligence Force in the West Bank.

Last year, Abbas promoted Erekat to the position of PLO
Secretary-General, a move that was interpreted by many Palestinians as a
sign that Abbas sees him as his successor. But Faraj is also very close
to Abbas, who relies on him blindly when it comes to protecting the PA
regime against Hamas and other political rivals.

Regarding Barghouti, Fatah officials said this week that it would
make no sense to have a president who is in prison and thus not able to
perform his duties.

Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah, who previously headed An-Najah
University in Nablus, regards himself as a potential successor. One of
his aides said that there is "no reason why such a widely-respected man
should not become the next president." Hamdallah, however, holds no
official position in Fatah and has no power base there.

In this regard, Hamdallah is not different from his predecessor,
Salam Fayyad. The two men do not have enough "credentials" among
Palestinians, because they did not serve time in Israeli prisons and
were never active members of the Palestinian "resistance."

Because of the power struggle between members of the Fatah Central
Committee, there is a chance that they could elect a veteran Fatah
figure who is not a Committee member. Faraj is one of the "outsiders,"
but there is no shortage of such people.

Another scenario that could take place, in wake of the internal
squabbling and sharp differences within Fatah, sees its leaders forming a
"collective leadership" to manage the affairs of the Palestinians.
Tawfik Tirawi, a Fatah Central Committee member and a former head of the
PA's General Intelligence Force in the West Bank, lately hinted at this
option when he said that, "President Abbas will be the last president
of the Palestinians."

Finally, a last question needs to be addressed: Does it really matter
who replaces Abbas? In other words, will the next leader be able to
deviate from the policies and strategy that have already been drawn by
Abbas and his Fatah leadership? More importantly, will the next
president be able to accept any peace deal with Israel that has already
been rejected by Abbas and Yasser Arafat?

After Arafat died, Arafatism lived on. The same applies to Mahmoud
Abbas. No real changes, if ever, should be expected in the Palestinian
attitude towards the conflict with Israel after his departure.

After
Yasser Arafat died, Arafatism lived on. The same applies to Mahmoud
Abbas. No real changes, if ever, should be expected in the Palestinian
attitude towards the conflict with Israel after his departure. Pictured
above: Yasser Arafat (L) and Mahmoud Abbas (R) in a Fatah propaganda
poster.

Once again, the Palestinians will be the big losers. No one is going
to ask their opinion about the next president and they will not be given
the opportunity to cast their ballots in a presidential election.

Fatah's Central Committee in the West Bank brings to mind the
Politburo of a Communist Party, which made decisions on behalf of the
people, though not with their best interests in mind. In the Gaza Strip,
the Palestinians will continue to be ruled by Hamas, an Islamist
movement that has brought nothing but destruction and disaster to
Palestinians.

So, in the end, the question of Abbas's successor is rather
unimportant. The Palestinians will continue to be ruled by dictatorships
that do not give a damn about their people.

Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist is based in Jerusalem. Follow Khaled Abu Toameh on TwitterSource: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8050/palestinians-abbas-succession Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.