National Post editorial board: Mubarak must go

On Sunday, Michael Ignatieff said that “Canada has to say very, very clearly that there needs to be a peaceful transition to free and fair elections [in Egypt]. The Egyptian authorities need to be under no illusions what we think about this.” The Liberal leader is entirely correct, and we urge Prime Minister Stephen Harper to follow his advice.

A week of increasingly bold protests have shaken the government of President Hosni Mubarak. Already, the long-time autocrat has dismissed his cabinet and appointed a vice-president (a novelty under his rule). But as the protestors know, this is window dressing: Egypt will not be free until Mr. Mubarak himself is out of power.

Democracy would not necessarily lead to a more Western-friendly government in Egypt. As many commentators have pointed out, the most established opposition force in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist organization that in the past has served as inspiration to terrorist groups. Yet so far, the Egyptian protests have exhibited a remarkably moderate tone; and the Muslim Brotherhood has taken a back seat to progressive voices. The group has even backed Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei as a consensus choice for the reform movement’s de facto spokesman.

Of course, these are still early days — and there is no guarantee that the Islamists really will give up Egypt’s future to moderates and liberals. History is littered with revolutions — including Russia’s in 1917, and Iran’s in 1979 — that were hijacked by radicals. Yet we believe such a hijacking is unlikely in Egypt. Like everyone else in the world, Egyptians have seen what has become of Gaza, Sudan, Taliban Afghanistan, Pakistan’s tribal regions and Iran under Islamist regimes: All these lands have degenerated into poverty, internal repression and pariah status.

Could a post-Mubarak Egypt become openly hostile to Israel? Again, it’s possible — but unlikely. Egypt has lost four wars against the Jewish state, and the country’s risk-averse military has no taste for a fifth. Moreover, the path to Tel Aviv runs through Gaza, a Hamas-run statelet that Egypt disdains as much as Israel. Indeed, Egypt has built a massive fence to separate itself from Gazan terrorists. Where is the currency in Egyptian tanks breaching their own fence from the west?

In any case, as The New York Times’ Ross Douthat recently wrote, Western efforts to guide Middle Eastern politics always have met with failure. Rather than try to prop up Mr. Mubarak, or otherwise micromanage the political outcome in Egypt, it is smarter for Western leaders to let Egyptians decide their own future through the same democratic mechanisms we take for granted in our own country.

Many commentators have lamented that American influence in the region is at a low ebb. That’s true. But there is a positive flip side to that fact: One of Islamists’ and terrorists’ main recruiting slogans in the region is the (admittedly legitimate) claim that the West has poisoned Arab political culture by propping up dictators such as Mr. Mubarak. Following a free and fair election, that argument vanishes.

Last year, Freedom House gave Egypt the second-lowest rating possible because of its abuse of political freedoms. The group noted that “there is no meaningful freedom of expression” in Egypt. The Mubarak regime has hunted down dissidents and bloggers critical of the government (or even those merely supportive of free and fair elections) and either “disappeared” them or arrested them on trumped up charges. Torture of political prisoners has been common, too. It is a quiet disgrace that such a regime should receive billions of dollars from Washington every year.

The mutually incompatible desires for predictable “stability” and democracy in Egypt and the wider Middle East have presented Western governments with an awkward dilemma. But ultimately, we must choose one or the other. And the time has some to go with our principles. Canada, the United States and the rest of the West must, as Mr. Ignatieff recommends, make it abundantly clear that they no longer see Mr. Mubarak as Egypt’s legitimate ruler; they must call on him to relinquish power quickly and call on any transitional president to ensure elections that are free and fair.

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