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With a disciplined all-the-way victory behind him in China last Sunday, Lewis Hamilton goes into the final race of the F1 season at Sao Paulo’s time-worn and bumpy Interlagos circuit in Brazil (on November 2) with a seven point lead in the FIA World Drivers’ Championship. Under a scoring system that provides just ten points for a win, this means that local boy Felipe Massa, with a home-town crowd rooting for him, will be the only challenger in contention for the crown on the big day.

Massa is already a winner in Brazil (two years ago), and Ferrari will be putting up maximum effort for him. But the Italian team has been slipping recently. In China, the speed of Hamilton and his McLaren–Mercedes left the Ferrari boys choking in the dust. So what could possibly stand between the Englishman and the most expensive prize in motorsport?

The answer is “quite a lot.” To start with, there’s the gloomy memory of last year’s Brazilian race, in which Hamilton and McLaren paid a heavy price for a combination of driver inexperience and team arrogance. By an uncomfortable coincidence, the British rookie went into that race with exactly the same points margin over a Ferrari driver that he has this time. The opponent then was Kimi Rikknen, who cannily took advantage of the bitter rivalry between Hamilton and his then team mate Fernando Alonso. He was already leading when the McLarens clashed wheels at the second corner, allowing him to consolidate his lead, secure the win and — much against the odds — grab the title.

Although the relationship this year between Hamilton and his teammate is one of harmony, the form book suggests that Heikki Kovalainen doesn’t have enough performance to support his number 1. While “Kovy” is a race winner this year, he appears to be less fond of a fight than Hamilton and is noticeably less comfortable under the pressures of qualifying. Kovalainen has pledged himself to supporting his team mate, but unless he is able to qualify faster than one or both Ferrari drivers in Brazil, Hamilton will have to fight the red opposition without any close support.

In yet another coincidence, Hamilton goes into the Brazilian race — as he also did one year ago — in the knowledge that he could already have wrapped up the title. Twelve months ago in Shanghai, his engineers had left it at least two laps too late to call him in for a damaged tire to be replaced. With the tire deflating, Hamilton lost control as he entered the pit lane and was stranded permanently in a gravel trap when he should have had at least eight points.

This year, Hamilton has had to erase memories of September’s Belgian GP, where he celebrated victory only to have the win taken away from him by race officials who judged that he had taken unfair advantage of Raikkonen as they disputed the lead side-by-side in a rainstorm. Quite apart from the perversity of the decision — which penalized exactly the sort of close in-fighting for which F1 fans pay their admission money — it handed victory to Massa, who had driven a below-par race. Yet again, it also raised suspicions of a pro-Ferrari, anti-McLaren bias at the very top of the sport. Hamilton, penalized 25 seconds, had to be content with third place.

It has to be asked whether Hamilton deserves to become champion. He is still only 23 years old, and he had the great privilege of finding himself promoted into F1 last year at the wheel of the powerful and reliable McLaren-Mercedes MP4-22, a car that would prove itself to be the most consistently competitive of the season. Its successor, this year’s MP4-23, has been almost equally good, and almost any of the current top half dozen drivers would have won races with it. But Hamilton is an exceptional talent, as he has shown in adverse conditions, most notably at the storm-tossed British and Belgian races.

Inevitably, Hamilton’s success has been resented in some quarters. There has been criticism from rival drivers of his aggressive style, but history shows that past greats, most recently Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher, had to put up with the same accusations. Perhaps too much media attention is paid to his family, especially to the ever-present and permanently humorless face of his father Anthony, which has become a feature of the international TV coverage. The Hamiltons themselves, of course, can hardly be blamed for seeking the coverage, even less for their joyful response when their boy — who has now won nine times from 34 starts — shows a clean pair of heels to the opposition.

The resentment doesn’t stop with the drivers. In a recent interview with an Italian newspaper, Renault’s racing boss, Flavio Briatore, took a pop at an easy target when he opined that Hamilton is “no Muhammad Ali.” To journalists frustrated by the strait-jacketed replies, which normally appear on the lips of F1 bosses, a remark like that can be refreshing. In this case, though, it triggered suspicions that there may be a side to Briatore that has never been revealed before.

Briatore is hardly a disinterested commentator, either, combining (as he does) the jobs of running Renault Sport and managing the career (at a nice percentage) of his own team’s driver, Alonso. It is reported that Briatore has since apologized for the remark. At least that made a refreshing change from the usual excuse that he was misquoted.

Alonso, who last year openly questioned McLaren’s long-standing team policy of serving both drivers equally, continues to nurse a heavy grudge against his former team mate. He even suggested that if a suitable opportunity arose in he final two races, he would try to help Massa win the title showdown. Given that the FIA has rules that prohibit teams from issuing orders in favor of one driver over another, it is surprising that Alonso’s offer to do so on his own initiative has not attracted any official attention.

Until last week, Hamilton had studiously avoided commenting on Alonso’s petulant attitude. But when questioned in China, the Englishman neatly summed up his Spanish rival. “He was a double world champion who came into the team and got beaten by a rookie. That says it all.”

In formulating their strategy for the Brazilian finale, Hamilton and his engineers know that taking things easy is not an option. If there’s a chance to do so, they must aim to get away from the pack (not to mention vengeful Spaniards) and control the race from the front. They will draw comfort from the revival in the fortunes of Raikkonen, who seems to have recovered from a mid-season performance slump. The Finn has qualified alongside Hamilton on the front row in the last two races and may be given the task of being the hare to Massa’s turtle.

This is likely to be more difficult than it appears, since the Ferrari — always light on its tires — doesn’t get the right temperatures into its Bridgestones until after half a dozen laps of racing. Last year at Interlagos the Ferrari had a slight handling advantage over the McLaren when Bridgestone specified the soft compounds that work better on the Italian car. This year, however, the tire supplier has been bringing a harder compound following a couple of well-publicized failures involving Hamilton and Kovalainen.

The biggest worry for anyone who wants to see the Brazilian race decided in the best possible sporting fashion will be the start. The first corner at Interlagos is a fast left-hander followed almost immediately by a right-left complex, and over the years it has been the scene of several heavy pile-ups, not to mention some spectacular passing maneuvers. It would be best for Hamilton, whose recent form off the start line has been wobbly — to be well ahead when he arrives there after the lights go out.

Not that he needs anyone to tell him that…

What each man needs to be sure of it

Lewis Hamilton:The Briton will be champion if he finishes in fifth place or higher at Interlagos. A sixth or seventh place finish will still give him the title if Massa fails to win. If Hamilton comes eighth he will need Massa to finish outside the top two places. With any position lower than eighth (i.e. out of the points), he would need Massa to finish third or worse

Felipe Massa:The Brazilian must finish first or second to have a chance of snatching the title. He will be champion if he wins and Hamilton is sixth or lower (sixth place would put the two men level on points but Massa will have won six wins to Hamilton’s five). Massa can also win it if he finishes second and Hamilton is eighth or lower. Were they to finish level on 95 points, Massa’s greater number of second places would count in his favor.