Raptors' realistic trade values

Trade values are set by the market, just because one team has a need for a player, they aren't going to offer significantly more than the next highest bidder for that player.

I see a lot of work with the Trade Machine hashing out complex salary transfers. I want to instead focus on our guys' values on the free market. What kind of talent can they bring back? What is the minimum you would move our guys for?

Likely
Lowry - late first round (25+)
Amir - late first rounder
Demar - mid first round + diminutive prospect
Hansborough/Novak - probably used as sweeteners to push one of the above from likely to ideal scenarios

I think your analysis is why so many proposals include the Raptors taking back bad contracts (ie: Boozer, Perkins, etc...) in addition to giving up the most talented player, in an attempt to maximize returns targeting the 2014 draft (with the assumption that rebuilding is a 2-3 year process, so taking on salary next season isn't a bad thing).

Why do people think teams will trade us draft picks?

In most of these trade threads I see people coming up with ways that draft picks will come back to us, but why do people think any GM in the league is willing to trade a pick in a year that's supposed to be on par with the 2003 and 1996 class?

Especially when you consider that there are only 2 contenders in the East and maybe 4 in the West. Why do you guys think any team would give us a draft pick to lose to those 6 in the 1st or 2nd round?

In most of these trade threads I see people coming up with ways that draft picks will come back to us, but why do people think any GM in the league is willing to trade a pick in a year that's supposed to be on par with the 2003 and 1996 class?

Especially when you consider that there are only 2 contenders in the East and maybe 4 in the West. Why do you guys think any team would give us a draft pick to lose to those 6 in the 1st or 2nd round?

I know you didn't post this in this thread, but late first round picks shouldn't be too hard to get. The heat and pacers of the world probably aren't willing to wait several years for a mediocre prospect to develop

I definitely don't think you're getting any lottery picks in a trade period. But potentially you could get a mid-round or late 1st from either a team on the brink that's looking to maybe make a playoff run, or a serious contender looking to put their team over the top.

That being said I literally just saw a rumor that the Knicks want Lowry. Getting Shumpert for him would be gold to say the least.

In most of these trade threads I see people coming up with ways that draft picks will come back to us, but why do people think any GM in the league is willing to trade a pick in a year that's supposed to be on par with the 2003 and 1996 class?

No team that expects to have a top-10-or-better pick is going to trade that pick, which is why all the Milwaukee trade proposals I keep seeing Raps fans suggest are so silly at this point. Mid-round and late-round picks, though, are potentially doable, because after you get out of the top 10 or so you've got a lot of gambles rather than superstars. (Also remember that a 31-36 second rounder is sometimes preferable to a 25-30 first-rounder: you get the same general level of player quality, but you aren't required to sign them to a contract immediately.)

And you have to remember: GMs can be fired, and a GM on the hotseat can and will overpay. Colangelo was on the hotseat last year and everybody knew it, which is why Memphis was able to gouge him on the Rudy Gay trade. So we're looking for this year's version of Bryan Colangelo.

Chris Grant in Cleveland is probably the easiest candidate: he's responsible for draft choices that a lot of people questioned even when they were made (Thompson over Valanciunas, Waiters over Lillard/Barnes/Drummond, Bennett over Oladipo) and the Gilberts have told him they want to win NOW. There's a reason we keep bringing up Cleveland as a potential trade partner. Grant wasn't desperate/crazy enough to bite on Rudy Gay but Rudy was easily the worst of our trade assets; he may be more interested in DeMar or Amir.

You don't think the Heat or Pacers would give up their first round pick for Lowry? My belief in the late first round is that championship teams don't have much use for a draft pick in the first place.

A 28-30 draft pick is certainly a possibility, if you want to play semantics. But even then I'm not entirely sure. He's been average on a horrible, horrible team. If you're the Heat would you trade a draft pick for Lowry or take a gander on a 10-day contract on a re-tread vet? The vet is probably more hungry than Lowry will ever be.

Heat did pretty well picking up Birdman last year. They got him for free. I think they'd do the same if they needed some help backing up Chalmers/Cole.

I think we are highly undervaluing Amir if the ideal is 2 early 2nd round picks (I get the mid first rounder, but I think that should be the realistic expectation for him).

I wouldn't expect a top 10 pick for him, but I wouldn't want it to be to far outside the back end of the lottery either.

I don't think you can get anything higher than 20+ for Amir and you'd probably have to throw in some. I don't think Amir can get 20+ by himself. I think the only way you get into the lottery is if you dangle Valanciunas.

You don't think the Heat or Pacers would give up their first round pick for Lowry? My belief in the late first round is that championship teams don't have much use for a draft pick in the first place.

I don't see Heat taking on Lowry's contract, even for the year, for basically no real upgrade (they need a big C not a PG).
Also a team like the Heat loves rookie contracts. The only way I see them trading their 1st to us is for 2 of our 2nds or our 2nd and maybe cash or something.

The Pacers may.

But again I don't mean we can't trade guys for pick number 29 in the draft, I'm just saying I don't see any GM being stupid enough to trade a lottery pick at all.

I definitely don't think you're getting any lottery picks in a trade period. But potentially you could get a mid-round or late 1st from either a team on the brink that's looking to maybe make a playoff run, or a serious contender looking to put their team over the top.

That being said I literally just saw a rumor that the Knicks want Lowry. Getting Shumpert for him would be gold to say the least.

Oklahoma City will almost certainly begin putting out feelers (if it hasn't already) for what it might be able to get by combining Kendrick Perkins and one of Jeremy Lamb, a future OKC first-round pick, and the Dallas first-rounder Oklahoma City acquired in the James Harden deal. There are complications with all of that. Perk has sunk to a level somewhere beyond terrible, and Lamb has generally played well this season; the Lamb–Reggie Jackson combo off the bench has been powerful.

You know what I think they could get for that package? I think they could get DeMar and Hansbrough if they upgrade the "future OKC pick" to "their 2014 pick."

I have begun to think that Masai has been thinking about who to deal with. That's why Gay was dealt to the Kings, thats why Masai is talking to the Knicks, Nets. He wants to help these teams climb out of the lottery.

I have begun to think that Masai has been thinking about who to deal with. That's why Gay was dealt to the Kings, thats why Masai is talking to the Knicks, Nets. He wants to help these teams climb out of the lottery.

It definitely has a win-win feel to it. That way the Raptors never tanked, they only finished at the bottom because other teams got better! haha