Although he has a 6+ ERA, he has a sparkling 3.60 xFIP. Digging around the numbers, it just seems like he's giving up an absurd amount of homers this year with a HR/FB % of 18.5. Doesn't seem like he's lost any velocity off his pitches, still has a 9+ k/9 and 3 BB/9.

Is there some regression coming? Why is he giving up so many HRs this year? Diminishing "stuff", leaving balls up in the zone, or just simply unlucky? His ground ball rate ain't too shabby either. From what I can see, the numbers show he could have a good 2nd half if the numbers regress as they suggest they could.