I mostly agree with you but I am pretty sure jungle book will at least get a special effects nomination and Zootopia well at least get a best animated picture nomination and the best original song nom for the shakira song

Star Wars was my personal favorite movie of last year but it wasn’t one of the best of last year. (my personal motto is “not every good movie needs an Oscar). That “biased membership” also embraced the likes of Gravity and Mad Max.

Personally, I think Arrival is the only one this year with major awards potential, but Passengers could pull a fast one on me, especially with Jennifer Lawrence in the lead.

Morten Tyldum’s last movie got eight Oscar nominations and Passengers looks like a stylish sci-fi romance/adventure starring the two of the most popular actors in the world – not sure why many seem to be dismissing its chances….

To be fair, The Imitation Game played much more strongly to the Academy’s traditional tastes and its not as if its visionary direction was what pushed it over the top but I’m keeping Passengers in my top 10 for now.

I don’t see much in the realm of sci-fi getting into the Oscar race this year other than tech noms. Last year had such a focus on films like Mad Max and Star Wars, that I think the Academy will “take a year off” from giving them such support.

Not sure why there is such Oscar buzz for Arrival, but if a cinematic achievement like Interstellar couldn’t get noms above the line, then I don’t see this film doing such.

As for Passengers, I’ll definitely need to see a preview before I can form an opinion.

I’d support The Jungle Book for any award because it was definitely a well made film and very entertaining.

Zootopia could be a BP contender if Disney plays up the “It’s an important film” narrative. It does capture the state of prejudice going on in our country today. Also, it has the reviews and the box office to back it up.

Arrival just debuted to rave reviews at the Venice Film Festival. If it has momentum it is possible to get the ”Martian” type of nomination.

The Jungle Book has no chance at BP nominations. The movie will be more like Interstellar. Good reviews, Good Boxoffice and 4-5 nominations (Visual Effects – a win and nominations in maybe Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Production Design and Score).

Zootopia is my favorite to win Animated Feature, but it will be very hard to get the BP nomination.

Arrival, for sure, but apart from that the only real contender I see is the oft-overlooked Midnight Special which opened earlier this year to pretty good reviews overall. Probably won’t make it to Best Picture but it’s performances—Kirsten Dunst and Michael Shannon in particular—may very well make be great contenders for their highly-praised performances