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Re: Offseason Priorities

If the Reds can pull their OPS in CF up from .621 to about .735 I think they can let Ludwick walk and accept .775ish out of LF instead of .825. Frazier should upgrade 3b from .721 to .780 or so. (going off memory here) Of course, signing Ludwick and improving CF gives the Reds a chance to be their best. Another thing is the bench really drained the overall production from areas like C, 2b and SS. Could really use a much, much better bench. Platooning Stubbs and getting rid of Valdez would be a good start.

Re: Offseason Priorities

I really hope they don't mess around with Chapman. Leave him where he is now. As it stands, if the Reds have the lead after 6 or 7 innings the game is essentially over. Don't mess with that.

Chapman is the Reds' Mariano Rivera.

Look at the Feliz situation in Texas too. It's quite scary to imagine losing Chapman altogether, if not in 2013, then even perhaps 2014 after a long season does what it did to that Mariners kid who went to NYY, can't think...

Re: Offseason Priorities

Chapman's shoulder was fatigued this year after 67 or so innings. I know starting is different, but can the Reds risk having Chapman's shoulder fatigue 1/3 of the way through the season?

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. -- Terrance Mann (Field of Dreams)

Re: Offseason Priorities

I really hope they don't mess around with Chapman. Leave him where he is now. As it stands, if the Reds have the lead after 6 or 7 innings the game is essentially over. Don't mess with that.

Chapman is the Reds' Mariano Rivera.

I can see that point of view. I can also see how the Reds would be much more likely to have that lead after 6 or 7 innings if Chapman started the game instead of Mike Leake.

It comes down to deciding between getting 60* innings or 175-200+ innings out of Aroldis Chapman each year. I am sure the hitters on opposing teams would prefer that Chapman only pitch 60 innings.

It is easier and cheaper to obtain another late-inning reliever than to obtain an ace-level starting pitcher.

A major factor in the decision will be what the Reds feel is the best way to keep Chapman healthy. A pitcher can get injured just as easily as a reliever than as a starter. Some pitchers have funky deliveries that would make them more likely to get injured as a starter where they would be throwing more pitches. I don't think Aroldis Chapman fits into that category. He has a smooth clean delivery. Personally I think Chapman is less likely to get injured as a starter than as a reliever. He seems to struggle with repeated usage, so I think having at least five days (six with a team off day) between efforts would be great for him.

The Reds' plans for Tony Cingrani are going to factor strongly into their plans for Aroldis Chapman. There is a lot of discussion about whether Cingrani is destined to be a starting pitcher or a stud reliever in the major leagues. Like Aroldis, Cingrani is a left-handed pitcher but is not merely a LOOGY. If the Reds feel that Cingrani is ready to take a role as a late-inning reliever for the Reds in 2013 then he could alleviate the loss of Chapman in the bullpen and make it easier for the team to put the Missile in the rotation. If the Reds feel Cingrani should remain a starting pitcher then they will have to find another alternative to replace Chapman in the bullpen, possibly Madson or another free agent reliever. Maybe they have JJ Hoover pegged in that role.

Chris Sale of the White Sox is an example of a young relief pitcher who was transitioned to the starting rotation with great success in 2012. Like Chapman, he had been a starting pitcher his whole life until being used in the bullpen upon breaking into the major leagues. I think he is a better comparison than Stephen Strasburg, who was coming off Tommy John surgery.

* Chapman has averaged 60 innings per season so far. 50 in 2011 and 71 in 2012.

Re: Offseason Priorities

If the Reds are planning to move Chapman into the rotation, which I hope is the case, then I think it would make absolute sense to trade Leake or Bailey for Young.

Leake, being a sinkerball pitcher, is someone I could see the Rockies liking a lot. They love guys with groundball tendencies, naturally. He had nearly a 2:1 ratio last year of grounders to flyballs.

Needless to say, Young is the kind of player the Reds need.

I wouldn't mind getting Young, but trading Leake or Bailey for him is an overpay, IMO. I guess I don't feel confident that Young can consistently reproduce that 377 OBP that he had last year in limited playing time.
If we could get Young for an extra bullpen arm or lower prospects, then yes, sign me up.

Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

Re: Offseason Priorities

Don't be surprised if the Reds "back in" on the Chapman decision for next season. Like this year.

What I mean is, they may decide it based on team need, not based on Chapman's capabilities.

Right now, other than Chapman, the pen is Marshall, Lecure, and Hoover IMO. Broxton isn't signed. Arredondo had a bad second half. Masset is a big question mark. Ondrusek was ineffective. Simon is not a late inning guy.

Will the Reds acquire a new closer, or decide to sign Broxton to close, and live without Aroldis in the pen?

On the starting side, will the Reds feel comfortable with Leake? Will they decide it is imperative to upgrade that slot? If they are uncomfortable, will they find another starter allowing them to keep Aroldis in the pen?

In other words, I think the Reds will look at their starting and relieving options, inside and outside of the organization, and see where Aroldis is needed most. Team need will decide the issue IMO.

Re: Offseason Priorities

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Look at the Feliz situation in Texas too. It's quite scary to imagine losing Chapman altogether, if not in 2013, then even perhaps 2014 after a long season does what it did to that Mariners kid who went to NYY, can't think...

Re: Offseason Priorities

I really hope they don't mess around with Chapman. Leave him where he is now. As it stands, if the Reds have the lead after 6 or 7 innings the game is essentially over. Don't mess with that.

Chapman is the Reds' Mariano Rivera.

Without a doubt!

Originally Posted by Cedric

I would be shocked beyond belief if Chapman every has another role in baseball. Frankly I've come around to that being a good thing.

I was high on the idea of him becoming the closer last season but wasn't sure he could stay focused enough in high pressure situations. He proved he could this season and I think it would be an absolute waste to try to turn him back into a starter. His arm is truly a unique weapon when it can deliver triple digits in the late innings.

Re: Offseason Priorities

Re: Offseason Priorities

Anyone know what happened to Chris Coughlan? At this point it looks like Miami would give him away for the proverbial bag of balls.

He's carrying a .350 lifetime OBP against RHP. A former ROY, he looks kinda like a WJ pickup. He's more of a corner but could be a good bench guy if nothing else.

The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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