This poll shows that, as things stand, a quarter of people in Wales support Independence. This figure rises to a third if the Conservatives were to win power on June 8th, and stand in stark contrast to the BBC’s polling which shows support for independence standing at no more than 6%, if you believe their spin.

As the Plaid politician

Adam Price said,

A major piece of news you will never see on the BBC….Almost a third of Welsh people now in favour of independence https://t.co/btbIEASBv5

This alone changes the whole dynamic around the discussion about Welsh Independence. The media and politicians have avoided talking about it because, we are told, so few support the idea.

This myth has been blown out of the water.

Instead of giving people a binary Yes / No choice the pollsters asked respondents to rate their support for independence on a sliding scale, ranging from 0 (strongly opposed) to 10 (strongly for).

Those who chose six or above have a clear favourable view of independence.

When asked,

“On a scale of 0-10 where 10 is very strongly in favour and 0 is very strongly against, how do you feel about Welsh Independence?”

26% responded favourably. When excluding the Don’t Knows that figure rose to 29.4%.

However, when posed with the second, more hypothetical (yet realistic) question,

“And please now assume that the Conservatives win an increased majority in the UK general election.
In this instance, on a scale of 0-10 where 10 is very strongly in favour and 0 is very strongly against, how do you feel about Welsh Independence?”

The figures rose to 32% and 36.2% respectively.

Let that sink in for just a moment.

In the absence of any real campaign, no public discourse, and several centuries of being told that we’re too small and too poor to be independent, in the face of all of this nearly 30% of the people of Wales have a favourable view towards Welsh Independence with that figure rising to over 36% in the event of a Tory victory in June.

That’s simply astonishing.

National View

Further analysis of the polling figures is even more heartening.

Firstly, we can say with confidence that this is a national view. This isn’t an ambition confined to the north or to the west, as many might believe. Each Welsh region posted similar results,

On a scale of 0-10 where 10 is very strongly in favour and 0 is very strongly against, how do you feel about Welsh Independence?

(second number is the result excluding Don’t Knows)

Mid and West Wales 26%/31%;

North Wales 29%/32%;

Cardiff 24%/26%;

South East 28%/30%;

South West 23%/28%;

And when asked to imagine a Tory victory in June, the results were nearly identical across each region:

Mid and West Wales 30%/36%;

North Wales 31%/36%;

Cardiff 33%/36%;

South East 32%/37%;

South West 32%/38%;

Wales, the nation, is stirring, from Cosheston to Caldicot, from Holyhead to Holywell.

Youthful Agitators

But why did we start this piece by saying that Wales could be and independent nation state within a generation?

Well, this is the exciting bit.

33% of 18-24 year old’s have a favourable view of independence. This increases to 36% when the Don’t Knows are excluded.

In the next age category, 25-49, 35% have a favourable view of independence raising to 40% when Don’t Knows are excluded.

When looking at the likely scenario of a Tory Government in June, these figures rise to

18-24 – 44%/52% (Excl. DK)

25-49 – 36%/45% (Excl. DK)

This is staggering.

But, as Jimmy Crickett used to say, there’s more.

The net negative figures, those who selected 0-4, are as follows,

View on Welsh Independence (net negative):

(second number is the result excluding Don’t Knows)

18-24 – 42%/46%

25-49 – 39%/44%

Welsh Independence post-Tory victory (net negative):

18-24 – 34%/41%

25-49 – 32%/40%

More people in these age groups have a positive view on independence than a negative view.

Furthermore, opting for ‘5’ was neither a negative nor a positive, and a significant number of people chose ‘5’ across all data sets. In fact, except for the hard-core Unionists who are opposed to Independence at all costs (and they are a significant minority across all data sets), the next largest spike was in those who opted for ‘5’, effectively a ‘don’t know’ choice, but willing to be convinced.

Self-evident truth

Putting the positive case for independence forward will only see these positive figures in support of the cause increase, and with more in these age groups already having a positive view we are confident that time is on our side to make the case and win it.

That is why we are saying with confidence that Wales could, no, will become an independent nation state within a generation.

Independence is the natural state for any nation. It is what every nation aspires to.

The people of Wales are awakening to the realisation that ours is an unnatural state, and that we too have a right to self-determination.

There is no reason why Wales cannot play her full part in the family of nations. We are neither too small nor too poor, and the people of Wales know that.

All we need is the confidence to declare this self-evident truth: that Wales should be an Independent Nation directing our own affairs, and making full use of our greatest resource: our people.

Related

2 Comments on Wales will be independent within a generation. Don’t believe us? Read on

These survey results are really useful and confirm what we have been feeling ‘on the ground’ at Yes Caerdydd in terms of increased support for indendence. It’s good to see the pattern being a Wales wide one. These figures really resonate with the response we get when we do street stalls in cardiff, and with the fact that a lot of the people who are becoming active in our group are quite new to thinking about independence for Wales. They are coming to it from a variety of usually quite pragmatic reasons. Very encouraging, and all the more so for being such a grass roots movement. It’s not politicians leading this, but the people of Wales.

Indeed, Indymam. I have nothing against politicians (being a member of a party or a candidate shouldn’t mean you are unwelcome in any movement!) but YesCymru does not seem to have the leaders or spokespeople that other movements have, and long may it continue that way!
This poll certainly fits in with what I have seen in the area too – the support for the idea of Wales as a country just below the surface, waiting for it to be let out. Sort of found that out at the first YesCymru rallies and meetings I went to six months ago. https://wordpress.com/post/iantoddu.wordpress.com/6
I do think it is a bit odd though, that for a non-party organisation Yes Cymru should organise a poll which asks two questions, one general and one about the Conservative party. It could come across as party political. Asking a different question (e.g. about attitude if Scotland left), more questions abut other parties, or no second question at all (the first question itself is a marvellous fact in itself!) may have been better. As it is, this may be used in campaigning as ammunition against the Tories – and I wouldn’t want to be part of that in Yes Cymru Abertawe. That’s just me as an individual though, as it works in YesCymru!