EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENTGLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM NORTH AMERICA

The Salafi-jihadist movement is winningKatherine Zimmerman | RealClearWorld Local conflicts and popular grievances create openings for the Salafi-jihadist movement to grow its influence. Working to resolve these conflicts will block its efforts to infiltrate communities. Reducing the movement’s ability to interact with populations is the only way to weaken it. America’s strategy must change to reflect this reality.

U.S., AFRICA:Understaffed AFRICOM CuttingHundreds More TroopsBy Tara Copp, Military Times: “U.S. Africa Command has begun cutting up to 10 percent of its forces from the continent in response to U.S. security challenges elsewhere, the top U.S. commander for Africa told reporters at the Munich Security Conference."

CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. CTP’s Iran team follows developments on the internal politics, military capabilities, and regional conflicts closely.

Will Germany, Not Ready & Slow To Invest, Keep EU Leadership, Deter PutinBy Robbin Laird, Wednesday, February 20, 2019 3:41 PMThe Cold War has not returned, but the Russians have. The challenge for the Trump Administration is less about whether the US cares about European defense; it is much more about a strategic shift of American attention to dealing with the Chinese and North Korean threats.

Is Mexico a Failing State?By Alexander Grinberg, Strategy Bridge: "In 2009, U.S. Joint Forces Command released a statement expressing concerns over Mexico, highlighting the potential even then for a total collapse."

Middle Eastern Communities Can Resist SectarianismSectarian violence in the Middle East has been destructive, but it is still the exception rather than the norm. Communities are generally resilient to the worst sectarian impulses. Lessons from Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria, and Iraq show that there are a range of actions that can curb sectarianism. Read more »

Food aid programs provide rents to interest groups through cargo preference requirements and purchasing requirements raising program costs. As a result, US food aid is not efficiently achieving its goals of increasing US soft power and alleviating global hunger.

Trump’s Africa SurpriseBy Jonathan Gass, Atlantic Council: "Africa has generally ranked near the bottom of U.S. foreign policy priorities. Historically, two-term presidents have waited until their second term to establish their legacies on the continent, and many one-term presidents have neglected it altogether. U.S. President Donald J. Trump has surprised many by bucking this trend."

Alexander Decina writes: Western governments have repeatedly had to downgrade their expectations for Syria. After nearly eight years of war, demands for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s immediate departure slowly whittled down to a reluctant acceptance that no political transition is forthcoming. Now, Western countries find themselves deliberating whether to participate in Syria’s reconstruction without the political transition they have long demanded. – War on the Rocks

Europe Does Not Existby Josef Joffe via CommentaryBy the numbers, the European Union is a giant. Its economy exceeds China’s by $7 trillion and is just a bit smaller than America’s $20 trillion. Russia? Its GDP of $ 1.7 trillion is petty cash. On paper, the EU nations marshal as many soldiers as does the United States, and half a million more than Russia. Their combined population dwarfs both. But if one measures by its weight in world affairs, Europe is a runt.

The European Alliance That Never Wasby Angelo M. Codevilla via StrategikaThe notion of an Atlantic alliance consisting of Europeans and Americans as full partners was once a useful fiction. Today it is a dysfunctional one, an obstacle to all sides’ understanding of what useful cooperation may yet be possible.

Michael Rubin writes: Putin’s lasting legacy, however, will not be his wars in Georgia or Ukraine nor the new submarines , fighter jets , nuclear weapons , or hypersonic missiles whose manufacture and unveilings he has overseen. Rather, Putin’s historic legacy will likely be inheriting a country with great economic potential and leaving it an empty husk. After so many years in power, Putin has no one to blame but himself. Arguments that the West humiliated Russia after the Soviet Union’s fall are nonsensical. – The National Interest

U.S., AFRICA:DoD Developing Supply Route From Djibouti to SomaliaBy Amanda Sperber, Foreign Policy: "The U.S. Defense Department is in the early stages of a project to develop land-based supply routes from the main American military base in Africa, Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, to other U.S. camps across the eastern part of the continent."

For decades, Kenyan authorities have struggled to contain the threat of extremism in their country. And on Tuesday morning, the militant group al-Shabab claimed responsibility for another attack there, this time on a hotel in the upscale Westlands neighborhood of Nairobi. […]Tuesday’s attack also came three years to the day after al-Shabab attacked a Kenyan-run military base in El Adde, Somalia, Williams noted. In that instance, militants detonated explosives and stormed the base, leaving as many as 141 Kenyan soldiers dead, according to a CNN investigation. – Washington Post ​Caroline Goodson writes: Why should the US commit resources to a far-away fight? Because al Shabaab and al Qaeda are part of a broader Salafi-jihadi movement that has spread across Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. […]And once they’re settled in Africa, we can be sure they’ll be on our doorstep once again. Far from walking away, the US and its partners must address the governance deficit in Somalia and the broader region. Walking away is little more than surrender. – American Enterprise Institute

Nicholas Kristof writes: These protests are unfolding in Sudan against the regime of President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for genocide. Other presidents have committed genocide over the last century, but Bashir has the distinction of conducting three different genocides by my count: in South Sudan, in the Nuba Mountains and in Darfur. He is not just a serial killer; he is a serial genocidaire. – New York Times

Two deadly terror attacks rocked Syria and Kenya and show that extremist groups such as Islamic State and Al-Shabab have not been dented in their ability to strike at the most sensitive and important targets. On Wednesday, an attack claimed by ISIS struck Americans meeting with locals in the sensitive town of Manbij in northern Syria. Four Americans were reported killed. In Nairobi, Al-Shabab attacked a luxury hotel on Tuesday and murdered more than 20 people. – Jerusalem Post