Dent's lead over Callahan increases

Dent drives up Callahan's negatives by 9 percentage points in a month.

October 15, 2010|By Nicole Radzievich, OF THE MORNING CALL

Republican Congressman Charlie Dent's lead over his opponent, John Callahan, has climbed 6 percentage points since September, making it more difficult for the Democratic challenger to buck a national mood that has his party on the defensive.

The findings, part of a poll conducted this month by Muhlenberg College on behalf of The Morning Call, show Dent leading Callahan 49 percent to 32 percent.

Pollster Chris Borick called the 17-point lead "a large one to recover from" so close to Nov. 2. Not only would Callahan have to persuade all of the undecided voters to cast their ballots for him, but he would have to chip away at those who support Dent, a household name with a job approval rating of 55 percent.

"If there's going to be a shift, the single biggest thing would be to somehow get Democrats that we don't consider likely voters out to the polls," Borick said. "If they have one major comeback move, it would be in the area of increasing turnout beyond what the polls are expecting."

The poll, conducted between Oct. 5-13, surveyed 496 likely voters in the 15th District, which spans the Lehigh Valley. The poll had a margin of error of plusor minus 5 percentage pointsThirteen percent of likely voters are undecided.

Independent Jake Towne had 5 percent, up from 3 percent last month.

"These poll results are very encouraging," Dent said. "It looks like the people are responding to my message and are rejecting John Callahan's. We have two-and-a-half weeks until Election Day, and we're going to keep the pedal to the metal."

Towne anticipates a greater turnout from his true supporters — those under 40 — than allowed by the poll, which is based in part on historic voting patterns. Towne said he believes his support to be in the low teens.

Justin Schall, Callahan's campaign manager, said the poll gives too much weight to Republican respondents, given there are 50,000 more Democrats in the district.

Despite that, Schall said, Dent "is still an incumbent that's under 50 percent, which is the benchmark of vulnerability. A majority of voters clearly don't want Dent back in Washington."

Dent enjoyed an 11-point margin in a September poll, a time when 10 percent were undecided. Since then, Callahan in television ads has tried to tie Dent to Wall Street, and Dent's ads have labeled Callahan a tax-and-spend Democrat.

Borick said Dent's ads appear to be working. Dent continues to drive up Callahan's negatives from 13 percent in April, to 29 percent in September and to 38 percent in October. Dent's negatives have remained steady by comparison.

Borick said none of that is surprising. Dent, who spent 14 years as a state legislator and is in his sixth year as a congressman, is a known quantity. Voters have already made up their minds whether they like him. But voters outside of Bethlehem, where Callahan has been mayor since 2004, had to get to know Callahan. The negative ads Dent began airing Sept. 4 were the lenses through which many did that, Borick said.

Borick pointed to recent published reports of Bethlehem's fiscal challenges. A recent audit showed Bethlehem had a $5.2 million shortfall in 2009 and a $4.1 million shortfall 2008. "The Dent campaign has taken those … numbers and turned them into productive election fodder," he said.

Voters like Paul Davis, 52, of Upper Macungie Township agree that the ad campaign has neutralized what he thought was going to be a strong challenge from Callahan. Davis said he thinks Dent has done a great job for years, but has decided not to donate to Dent's campaign this year because Dent's lead is so high.

"I think I'll save my money for a rainy day," Davis said.

Borick said the poll reflects national trends of President Barack Obama's popularity plummeting and Republicans on the rise. In the 15th District, Obama's job approval rating dropped among likely voters from 55 percent in April to 42 percent in October.

Towne said he's targeting the undecideds — 13 percent. Borick said history shows that undecideds tend to go to the challenger.

One who hasn't made up his mind is Mark Augello, 42, of Bethlehem. He's registered Republican and likes Dent, but he knows Callahan and his family.

"I'm torn right now, but I think I'm leaning toward Callahan," he said.