Neven
Thank you for all the hard work, and yeah, the emotional burden is something we all carry.
Just a thought to consider, something that might allow the blog to continue without the toll it takes on you. Open it up to a larger author community. A number of members of the Forum certainly have the chops to produce good quality posts.
This is the approach John Cook took with Skepticalscience many years ago, created an author community that generated most of the content. You are a member of that authors community so you know how it works.
Might the same thing work here, so that the blog can continue and you can get the rest and re-centering you need and richly deserve.

I've alluded to it a couple of times already, but I'm really going to take a break from blogging, as I have been struggling with an Arctic burn-out since 2012. On the one hand it's caused by everything that has been and still is going on in the Arctic. The learning curve, the excitement, but mo...

"The Greeks did fine without any fossil fuels, but they had slaves. "
Fossil Fuels are our slaves. For those of us in the developed world fossil fuels are the equivalent of having 100 slaves. Average energy output from the human body is around 100 watts. Average energy consumption in the developed west is around 10 kWatts

The title of this blog post is actually the title of a piece of science fiction, a short story written by Paul Briggs. Just like a couple of weeks ago when I was asked for advice on an idea for a novel, Paul asked me for some feedback on his short story. I figured posting it here, will generate...

So, given what has happened this season, the suggestion from HYCOM of what is happening in the Eastern Arctic, is it going to happen?
will we see a virtually Ice Free Eastern Arctic this year? An Ice Free North Pole.
Or is this some sort of coitus interruptus in potentio.
Aaargghh.....

Are we getting used to this? After the persistent cyclone in May and June, and the spiffy, but short-lived cyclone of two weeks ago, the Arctic is visited by yet another intense storm that goes below 980 hPa. In fact, according to Environment Canada it is currently at 976 hPa, which is lower tha...

Wow. You even rated a drive by from Steve Goddard.
Anthony Watts will be here next. Maybe ClimateAudit will audit you. Or Chris Monckton will teach you some Latin.
You and John Cook might want to compare notes on how much fun it is watching all the Wicked Witches trying to launch their Flying Monkeys against you.
Welcome to the Big Time Neven.
Best buy some popcorn. Sometimes the circus is really fun to watch.

John Abraham, known as the dragon that slew the Viscount and an excellent climate science communicator, approached me a while ago with a couple of questions concerning the blog and Arctic sea ice in general. He turned it into this ego-inflating article on the Guardian website: Global warming, A...

"except for the most rabid disinformers."
Oh stop being so nice to Steve Goddard.
Nevertheless, well done Neven. The Arctic Sea Ice is just one narrow vein in the gold field of Climate Science. But you and a small cohort of diligent compatriots are sure mining that vein deeply!
When someone in the distant future writes the history of the Climate Wars, with the wonderful wisdom of hindsight, many unexpected names will stand out.
Take a bow!

John Abraham, known as the dragon that slew the Viscount and an excellent climate science communicator, approached me a while ago with a couple of questions concerning the blog and Arctic sea ice in general. He turned it into this ego-inflating article on the Guardian website: Global warming, A...

So if the developments HYCOM are suggesting, certainly supported by concentration changes in the arc towards the Laptev, continue, what are the odds for a REALLY bizarre minimum? PIOMAS not lower than 2012 AND the Eastern Hemisphere and perhaps the Pole virtually ice free.
What a hair-raising 6 months it has been.
Also the fact that PIOMAS has pretty much paralled 2012 after the delayed melting in May says that even with the colder season with more clouds, ice dynamics, storms and maybe warmer water were still able to carry the load.
Imagine what we would have had if it had been more like 2007.

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Although the gap with 2011 and 2012 has become smaller, this year's volume is still quite a bit high...

While keeping an eye on day-to-day data and speculating about whether 2013 is going to overcome the odds and break last year's records, one tends to forget about the wider implications and what this actually is all about. A tree is incredibly interesting, but in the end it's all about the fore...

Regarding the rate of CO2 emissions today compared to the PETM, Lee Kump and his colleagues published a study last year based on a core from a shallow seabed from around the time of the PETM. This gave a far more accurate estimate of the rate of CO2 concentration rise during the PETM than anything previously.
Take home message. CO2 levels today are rising 10 times faster than during the PETM.
Wrt Methane Time Bombs, nothing in the record from the HCO or the Eemian suggests methane emissions at catastrophic rates. However, if warming proceeds as is likely in coming decades we will move into uncharted territory wrt temperatures and rates of change.

While keeping an eye on day-to-day data and speculating about whether 2013 is going to overcome the odds and break last year's records, one tends to forget about the wider implications and what this actually is all about. A tree is incredibly interesting, but in the end it's all about the fore...

Looking at both the extent and area graphs from various sources, if this year were to continue on its current trajectory it is likely to meet the 2012 curve at around day 220.
2 things suggest to me that this is possible.
The thinning reported by Hycom in the CAB seems to be allowing the pack to compact towards the pole, allowing scope for extent/area reduction just due to compaction.
And if the high pressure system over the Chukchi/Beaufort persists, it can reduce that area significantly.
The significant difference in 2012 was that around mid August, when the curves in other years had started to shallow out, 2012 kept on going down. If 2013 can catch 2012 by then and then the same phenomenon occurs again after that, this year could easily reach similar values to last year.

In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...

3.25 which is higher than my previous estimate.
Reasons:
Beaufort/Chukchi lagging so much although the high over there now may reverse that rapidly in which case we can catch up to 2012 within a few weeks.
CAB thinning has to have an impact that we will see later
The FRAM Express has been derailed lately. If that restarts, with the East Greenland Sea/Fram so empty right now, transport out that way becomes easier when the wind patterns are conducive.
Around mid August the previous years had started to shallow out but 2012 just kept dropping. If we see the same process this year then we could still see a small number. CAB thinning is the thing most likely to cause this.

In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...

Does PIOMAS produce basin level results? What would be interesting is seeing which basins have done what. Also, just eyeballing the main graph, it looks like most of the difference occurred in May. June has paralleled to 2012 line fairly well.

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The slow start of this year's melting season has had a dramatic effect on sea ice volume. After goin...

Neven
Totally OT.
The Webcams page is linking to the aloftcon archive for the USCGC Healy for 2012, not 2013.
The Healy doesn't seem to have done much interesting recently but she might.
[There was a reason I didn't link properly, but can't remember what it was. Fixed now, thanks; N.]

This comment by long-time commenter Rob Dekker was so good and elegant that I decided to squeeze it in as a follow-up guest blog to the first Problematic predictions post. ----- In Bill's excellent overview of correlations here, he used 'area' earlier as a predictor for 'area' later (area->are...

I'm going for 2.75
Reasons.
Even with any question marks over HYCOM, any errors they have must at least be reasonably consistent. And they have shown a massive rate of change in the CAB. This at a time when there was lots of cloud and cold weather. Ergo, most of the melt has been from the bottom and fragmentation of the ice, degrading of the fresh water lens etc.
Most of the peripheral basins will go, even if they have started slowly.
Now basic thermodynamics says that whole eastern hemisphere region will melt out earlier than last year. And not all of that is extremely high latitudes so still getting sunlight and exposure to air masses from Siberia/Canada/Alaska.
So warmer water to generate weather systems.
Complete melt of the Eastern hemisphere right to the pole is plausible and perhaps earlier than we might think. Or that there are large swathes of open water within the eastern hemisphere. All this allows weather/winds/waves to build up a head of steam before slamming into the bastion above Greenland/Ellesmere which must still be weakened due to the earlier cracking events.
So larger transits out through the Fram/Nares, into the Beaufort, or even simply breaking the bastion up into separated chunks. All because the ice is more easily mobile.
Imagine a storm like last year by but this year it doesn't hit ice till the other side of the pole.

Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...

A couple of weeks ago it was decided that Russian research station NP-40 (or SP-40 in Russian) would need to be evacuated, because the ice floe it was sitting on was breaking into pieces. There hasn't been any news since then, but apparently the evacuation started last weekend, as the German N-T...

A couple of weeks ago it was decided that Russian research station NP-40 (or SP-40 in Russian) would need to be evacuated, because the ice floe it was sitting on was breaking into pieces. There hasn't been any news since then, but apparently the evacuation started last weekend, as the German N-T...

The latest thickness animation from HYCOM is showing patches of less than 0.5 metres, essentially at the Pole. http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
The odds for a polynya at the North Pole are definitely shortening.
Talk about 'watch this space'!

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...

I know there are various opinions about how good the Navy's thickness projections are but look at the latest animation. Look at the big sheering event they are predicting above the Lincoln in a few days.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: After starting the year as the lowest on record, the 2013 trend line is now 425 and 901 km3 above th...

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: After starting the year as the lowest on record, the 2013 trend line is now 425 and 901 km3 above th...

ulisescervantes
I wasn't trying to diss' anyone's religious beliefs or anything similar. Rather I was trying to highlight how people with particular types of psychological makeup and value system can be deeply uncomfortable and resistant to ideas that challenge their core value system.
2 people may share the same religious beliefs for example yet bring very different psychologies to how they 'process' their beliefs. It is the underlying psychology that is the focus, not the beliefs.
And it is the impact of different peoples psychological makeup on how they 'process' ideas such notions as 'our way of life is leading to a dangerous change in the climate'.
2 people may both have a deep support for the capitalist/free enterprise system and defend it strongly.
However, when presented with evidence that it is causing harm, one person may come to accept that fact. It is distressing for them, disturbing, that something they cherish could cause harm. But they are able to travel the painful road to accepting that fact.
The other person is literally unable to accept it. Mere facts aren't strong enough to overturn inner certainties because they have a personality that is built very strongly on inner, perhaps subconscious beliefs. For them their economic conservatism for example isn't an opinion they hold; it is their identity.
And when confronted with ideas that are a challenge to their identity, rejecting minor things like evidence is easy in comparison.
This difference is an issue of personality type, not political views.

There was a time, not too long ago, when I didn't know the Arctic existed. Sure, I knew there was a North Pole and that it was cold there, but somehow I always thought that the Arctic and the Antarctic were the same thing, that someone had forgotten to add the Ant-. And of course, polar bears ...

Josh
"Texans are different, or so I've recently learned - apparently if you say anything that suggests Texas could experience negative consequences from climate change, they take it as a personal insult - actually as an insult against the state of Texas, which is much worse than a personal insult for them. "
It isn't a Texan thing. It is a thing associated with certain kinds of conservative personality types. Capitalism, Free-Enterprise, The Consumer Society etc. To some people the deep and visceral 'goodness' of these things is so profound, so deeply unconsciously real that any notion that calls them into question or suggests they may have any sort of negative consequences, or might need to be curtailed is anathema.
Emotionally anathema.
Probably the best analogy is to consider deeply conservative Christians. Evolution is anathema. Almost literally Blasphemy.
To the economically conservative that Capitalism/Free Enterprise might have negative aspects or consequences is also Blasphemy.
And ideas of blasphemy are never ever rational. But very visceral.

There was a time, not too long ago, when I didn't know the Arctic existed. Sure, I knew there was a North Pole and that it was cold there, but somehow I always thought that the Arctic and the Antarctic were the same thing, that someone had forgotten to add the Ant-. And of course, polar bears ...

nightvid cole
So the BG spins hard clockwise a week or so ago, breaking things up. Then across Ellesmere / Greenland it reverses, pushing towards the Fram.
Is Mother Nature trying to tell us something?

The previous pun - cracks of dawn - was wearing off, and the comment section was getting full, so here's a new pun and blog post dedicated to the cracking event that started in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas a couple of weeks ago, and then moved on to the multi-year ice against the Canadian Archi...

I have just put some of these images up in comments on a post about Andy Lee Robinson's PIOMAS graphics at SkS - http://www.skepticalscience.com/feb-2013-sea-ice-spiral.html
Neven, you might want to consider a cross-post on this at SkS, it might be a big story - drop Dana a note

The previous pun - cracks of dawn - was wearing off, and the comment section was getting full, so here's a new pun and blog post dedicated to the cracking event that started in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas a couple of weeks ago, and then moved on to the multi-year ice against the Canadian Archi...

Comparing the animation Neven has shown with the latest CICE animation here http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
There is an interesting possibility. CICE is showing a large mass of the remnant 4.5-5M ice having moved SW, left Ellesmere and continued on.
With weak ice in the Beaufort not resisting the BG very well what are the odds that the mass ends up sitting in the middle of the Beaufort at the start of the melt season, waiting to melt.

The previous open thread has gotten full enough, so here's a new one. We might want to kick off with this animation made by commenter A-Team: His comment: Don't miss this -- it's happening right now, by the hour -- so head on over to 80N 150W. A huge fracture has been opening a bit east of B...