There’s a story in the Detroit Free Press about Ian Kinsler‘s dissatisfaction with his stolen base totals from last year. He swiped only 15 bases and was caught 11 times. The former total was his lowest since his rookie season, the latter total was his highest ever. He discusses the reasons for why this was in the article and they make sense.

It’ll be interesting to see if, as Kinselr wishes, he’ll be able to improve on that now that he’s in Detroit. The Tigers were dead last in all of baseball last season in both stolen bases (35) and stolen base attempts (55). This despite having putative speedy fellows like Austin Jackson, Torii Hunter and Jose Iglesias in the lineup. Of course, they also had Jim Leyland at the helm, not Brad Ausmus, and Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the lineup and neither of those are guys who you (a) want running; or (b) want to take the bat out of their hands by running when they’re up.

Maybe the Tigers run more under Ausmus. And with Fielder gone — and the speedy Rajai Davis around — you have to figure that they will attempt more than 55 steals. Still, it seems unlikely to me that the Tigers — who were second in the AL in runs per game, after all — are going to radically change their approach. So while Kinsler should wind up with more than 15 steals, I wouldn’t expect a return to 30.

If Ausmus lets a brittle player with a 58% success rate attempt more steals than he did last year, he probably won’t last too long as a manager. As the stolen base efficiency break even point is 70%, and as Kinsler is moving to a team with an entrenched philosophy against SB’s, I am projecting no more than 10 steals for Kinsler if he stays healthy.

Since he’s moving to a slightly better homerun park I have him down for 20 HR’s. But his days as a five-category fantasy player should be over.

I could be wrong, but I think in the lower run scoring environment we have now (compared to 1993 through 2006), you have to have a higher success rate, as outs are even more valuable than the 1 base advancement.

I couldn’t verify Kinsler’s excuses vis-a-vis failed hit-and-runs (I’m pretty sure I would need to subscribe to retrosheet,) but I did find a big hole in this Moses Green guy’s analysis. While Comerica is a better HR park than Arlington overall, it’s actually slightly more punitive for HR’s by right-handed hitters. In light of this fact and with Kinsler’s downward ISO trends, I find it more likely that he goes for something closer to 12 HR’s. What a rube that Uncle Moses guy is! Moron.

Can’t blame you for being bitter about how the last few postseasons have ended for your Kitties, and how their window is closing while the Mets’ window opens.

unclemosesgreen - Jan 3, 2014 at 3:53 PM

I’m a Red Sox fan buddy. I’m far from bitter about the season. Now 2012 was a much different story with Bobby V., but last season ended perfectly, thank you very much.

Fear the Beards!

unclemosesgreen - Jan 3, 2014 at 3:58 PM

As to the Mutts’ window – BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Overpaying Curtis Granderson and Chris Young to *star* in the OF alongside the immortal Eric Young Jr. is going to put you over the top, right? Or is it Bartolo Colon?

Yeah, they’re still going to stink on ice. Good luck with that mess.

nymets4ever - Jan 3, 2014 at 4:20 PM

lol, yea, silly me…I forgot ignoramus Red Sux fans are now incapable of deeming any player good unless he grows a ratty disgusting old beard.

Matt Harvey? Terrible pitcher! Who needs that guy and his 98mph heat on the corners? He doesn’t even have facial hair! David Wright? That bum and his overrated “future Hall of Famer” numbers – grow a beard and then talk to us.

unclemosesgreen - Jan 3, 2014 at 4:27 PM

Love Matt Harvey! I’m a baseball fan first. Even I was bummed when he got hurt. Also, he grew up a 1/2 hour east of me. Local kid. He’s one to dream on for sure.

He’s just not going to pitch until 2015, and he’s not exactly assured of being as awesome. A lot of kids haven’t been recovering so well from TJ surgery lately

That’s from last year ONLY. Look at the data from the last 10 years and I can assure you Texas is a much better home run park. Add to that, last year’s numbers were a product of a lack of Ranger home run hitters and quality pitching from the Rangers staff.

My recollection was closer to what you’re saying, but it’s usually best to use the most recent park factors as they take climactic and park changes into account (like fences moving in or out, changing wind patterns, etc.)

Changing personnel affect these factors as well, as you suggest, but that effect is balanced by comparing the hitting performances of road teams at the park as well. In this case, adding the Houston Astros to the division also had a deleterious effect on offense.

… just looking at Kinsler (on paper), I noticed –
If he plays ’till he’s 39 years old, and plays the next 8 years like he did the first 8, he will likely amass:
300 steals
300 HR’s
500 2B’s
2,300 hits
and have a relatively stellar BB/SO career ratio at the plate.

He doesn’t have a GG at 2B, but he does have superb range.
I’m no SABR-metrician, but those look like HOF #’s to me.