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The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

It’s good news for the state of Colorado, which saw annual employment grow in all of the metropolitan markets included in this report. The state added 63,400 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, an impressive growth rate of 2.4%. Colorado has been adding an average of 5,300 new jobs per month for the past year, and I anticipate that this growth rate will continue through the balance of 2018.

In February, the unemployment rate in Colorado was 3.0%—a level that has held steady for the past six months. Unemployment has dropped in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Denver, where 3.1% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 4.6%.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

In the first quarter of 2018, there were 11,173 home sales—a drop of 5.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017.

With an increase of 5.3%, home sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, as compared to first quarter of last year. There was also a modest sales increase of 1.2% in Larimer County. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.

Home sales continue to slow due to low inventory levels, which were down 5.7% compared to a year ago.

The takeaway here is that sales growth continues to stagnate due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

Strong economic growth, combined with limited inventory, continued to push prices higher. The average home price in the markets covered by this report was up by 11.7% year-over-year to $448,687.

Arapahoe County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positiveand above its long-term average.

Appreciation was strongest in Boulder County, which saw prices rise 14.8%. Almost all other counties in this report experienced solid gains.

The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists and home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates.

DAYS ON MARKET

The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the first quarter of 2017.

Homes in all but two counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out where it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home.

During the first quarter, it took an average of 27 days to sell a home. That rate is down 2 days from the fourth quarter of 2017.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. In the first quarter of 2018, I have left the needle where it was in the fourth quarter of last year. Even as interest rates trend higher, it appears as if demand will continue to outweigh supply. As we head into the spring months, I had hoped to see an increase in the number of homes for sale, but so far that has not happened. As a result, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Annual employment growth in Colorado was measured at a respectable 2.2% in November and will likely finish the year having created around 55,000 new jobs. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, we are seeing employment growth at or above the state level and I anticipate that this will continue to be the case in 2017.

Unemployment rates continue to drop, and with rates now below three percent, all of Colorado’s metro areas are at full employment. Because of this robust level of growth—in concert with very low unemployment levels—I anticipate that we will see some fairly substantial income growth as companies look to recruit new talent and keep existing employees happy.

HOME SALE ACTIVITY

There were 14,614 home sales during the fourth quarter of 2016—up by a marginal 0.7% from the same period in 2015.

Jefferson County saw sales grow at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with a 5.9% increase. Sales activity fell in three counties, but this was a function of short supply rather than slowing demand.

Listing activity continues to remain well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the fourth quarter 12.8% below that seen a year ago.

The key takeaway from this data is that 2017 is shaping up to be one which will still substantially favor home sellers. I do anticipate that we will see some improvement in listing activity, but it is almost a certainty that demand will exceed supply for another year.

HOME PRICES

Demand continued to exceed supply in the final three months of 2016 and this caused home prices to continue to rise. In the fourth quarter, average prices rose by 9% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2015. The average sales price across the region is now $393,969.

In many parts of the region, prices are well above historic highs and continue to trend upward. With double-digit price increases over the past year, the market remains very hot.

The average price of a property in Larimer County so far this year is $378,253 and in Weld County it is $310,948. Both Counties have seen their residential average prices go up by almost $100,000 in just three years.

“For three years now we have had the perfect storm to cause prices to increase at a rate that is double the long-term average. Northern Colorado is in the top-10 nationally for fastest growing communities, we have an incredibly healthy economy with high employment, interest rates that are roughly half of the long term average, and very few homes to pick from,” said Eric Thompson president of Windermere Real Estate in Colorado.

“The inventory of listings is especially low in the lower price points. For example, if someone wanted to buy a single-family home in Fort Collins under $300,000 they would have five listings to choose from today. Greeley has 33 homes at that price point,” Thompson said. “These dynamics create a unique opportunity for move up buyers to capture the appreciation in their home and leverage the low interest rates to buy the home of their dreams.”

Even though the number of homes available for sale across Larimer and Weld Counties may be down, Windermere Real Estate in Northern Colorado saw their January closed transactions increased 48% compared to last year. Their new written contracts are up even more at 110% compared to 2016.

Windermere Real Estate is ranked the largest regional real estate company in the Western U.S. serving communities in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Mexico. The Windermere family has a proud heritage of serving our neighbors via the Windermere Foundation, which funds services for low-income and homeless families. Since 1989, the Windermere Foundation has contributed more than 28 million dollars towards improving lives in the communities where we live and work. For more information, visit www.windermere.com.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Annual employment growth in Colorado was measured at a respectable 2.2% in November and will likely finish the year having created around 55,000 new jobs. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, we are seeing employment growth at or above the state level and I anticipate that this will continue to be the case in 2017.

Unemployment rates continue to drop, and with rates now below three percent, all of Colorado’s metro areas are at full employment. Because of this robust level of growth—in concert with very low unemployment levels—I anticipate that we will see some fairly substantial income growth as companies look to recruit new talent and keep existing employees happy.

HOME SALE ACTIVITY

There were 14,614 home sales during the fourth quarter of 2016—up by a marginal 0.7% from the same period in 2015.

Jefferson County saw sales grow at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with a 5.9% increase. Sales activity fell in three counties, but this was a function of short supply rather than slowing demand.

Listing activity continues to remain well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the fourth quarter 12.8% below that seen a year ago.

The key takeaway from this data is that 2017 is shaping up to be one which will still substantially favor home sellers. I do anticipate that we will see some improvement in listing activity, but it is almost a certainty that demand will exceed supply for another year.

HOME PRICES

Demand continued to exceed supply in the final three months of 2016 and this caused home prices to continue to rise. In the fourth quarter, average prices rose by 9% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2015. The average sales price across the region is now $393,969.

In many parts of the region, prices are well above historic highs and continue to trend upward. With double-digit price increases over the past year, the market remains very hot.

CONCLUSIONS

For the fourth quarter of 2016, the needle remains firmly in the seller’s territory. It will be interesting to see if the recent increase in mortgage rates has any effect at all on the housing market. I believe that it will; however, I expect that it will likely cause a slowdown in home price growth rather than any collapse in home prices.

After a very active (to say the least) spring and summer, the door has now opened for buyers in our market.

Buyers who were frustrated during the first half of the year with low inventory and bidding wars now realize a better environment. It’s time to step off the sidelines and take a fresh look at what the market has to offer.

The first piece of good news is that rates have dropped to near all-time lows. Rates today are 0.6% lower than they were on January 1st. What this means on a $400,000 home with a conventional loan is a monthly savings of $110!

The second piece of good news is that inventory levels are coming up. There are more homes on the market to pick from and lower demand because of seasonal slowing. Months of inventory in Larimer County markets have bounced up 20% to 33%.

So, condominiums to the rescue right? Not so fast. Because of onerous construction defect laws, developers do not want to build multi-family, for sale product. It’s too risky. They’d rather build apartments.

Our market is under-supplied. Plain and simple.

This is really good news if you are a seller who wants to move up. This is especially good news if you are a seller of a condominium.

Contact us to find out what our under-supplied market has done to the value of your home. We’ll put together an Equity Snapshot which will show you, in detail, what your home is worth in today’s market. It’s valuable information to have whether you are thinking of selling or not. Just call 970-460-3033 or e-mail us at fortcollins@windermere.com.