As one of his earliest executive actions, and following through on campaign promises, on January 24, 2017, President Trump signed an Executive Memorandum (EM) inviting TransCanada to resubmit its application for an international border crossing permit for the Keystone XL pipeline.To facilitate prompt action, the EM directed the Secretary of State to make a final decision on the application within sixty days utilizing “to the maximum extent permitted by law” the State Department’s January 2014 Environmental Impact Statement (EIS).

On March 24, 2017, a Presidential border crossing permit was issued for Keystone XL based upon the findings in the 2014 EIS.The Indigenous Environmental Network and others immediately appealed in federal court in Montana (Case 4:17-cv-00029-BMM, District of Montana, Great Falls Divisions) claiming, among other reasons, that the record of decision (ROD) failed to adequately explain why the State Department had reversed Obama’s denial of the permit in 2015 because approval of the pipeline “would undermine U.S. climate leadership.”

On November 8, 2018, Judge Brian Morris issued a 53-page order which enjoined further construction activities.This was based in part on the Court’s finding that the 2017 ROD did not provide a “reasoned explanation” for its reversal in policy course.While acknowledging the Trump Administration’s authority to change policy and reverse course, the Court held that, “when reversing a policy after an election, an agency cannot simply discard prior factual findings without a reasoned explanation.”

The 2017 ROD attempted to justify the shift in policy by finding that, since 2015 “there have been numerous developments related to global action to address climate change, including announcements by many countries to do so” and “a decision to approve [the] proposed Project would support U.S. priorities relating to energy security, economic development and infrastructure.”The Court held that this was not sufficient because it failed to adequately explain why the climate change findings in the 2015 ROD were no longer applicable.Quoting from a U.S. Supreme Court decision, the Court held, “an agency cannot simply disregard contrary or inconvenient factual determinations that it made in the past.”

The Court also held that the use of the 2014 EIS violated NEPA in several respects, including: (1) it was based upon outdated oil market data (the 2014 EIS predicted $100 to $140 per barrel oil for the next 20 years); (2) it failed to evaluate the cumulative climate impacts from the Alberta Clipper pipeline; (3) it failed to complete the required cultural resources analysis; and (4) it was based on outdated information regarding the frequency of oil spills and, therefore, it also did not adequately assess the potential impact of oil spills on certain endangered species.

The Court’s order gives the Trump Administration the opportunity on remand to supplement the 2014 EIS to address the deficiencies and an opportunity to provide a reasoned explanation for its policy reversal.The EIS supplementation will likely take several years to complete.It looks like the Keystone XL border crossing permit is now into the next election cycle, and certainly more appeals will follow.

President Trump wasted no time making good on his promise to reverse President Obama’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and move U.S. energy policy towards cleaner energy sources. On January 24 Trump signed two executive memoranda, one inviting TransCanada to resubmit its application to build the 800,000 barrel a day Keystone XL pipeline from the Canadian oil sands to the Gulf Coast; the other directing the Army Corps of Engineers to expedite the review and approval of the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) to carry approximately 500,000 barrels per day of crude oil from the Bakken shale in North Dakota to oil markets in the United States. But a close reading raises some sticky legal and economic issues that will have to be resolved before the oil starts flowing. [LINKS to Keystone and DAPL Memos]

In announcing the Keystone Memo, Trump said that approval was contingent on TransCanada’s willingness to “renegotiate some of the terms” – including perhaps a commitment to use US steel and a share in any profits. The problem is that tar sands oil is not only the dirtiest fuel on the planet, it’s also the most expensive to extract. To be profitable oil prices need to be above $80 per barrel; today they sit around $52, and it is unlikely they will rise much higher in the foreseeable future given the competition from shale oil and the fracking boom that is flooding the market in the US. The break-even point for Bakken shale oil is $29 per barrel. Seventeen major oil sands projects were canceled after oil prices crashed in 2014, as companies took major losses. Major investors in the oil sands have begun to leave, including Norway-based Statoil, which pulled out of the oil sands in December 2016. So cutting a deal to the President’s liking may be harder than it looks.

Assuming the deal goes down, the Keystone Memo issues several directives to clear the way for the project. It directs the State Department to make a final decision within 60 days of the date TransCanada re-submits its application, and it further specifies that “to the maximum extent permitted by law” the final supplemental EIS issued in 2014 shall satisfy the requirements of NEPA as well as the consultation requirements of the Endangered Species Act, and “any other provision of law that requires executive department consultation or review.” The Keystone Memo also directs the Corps of Engineers to use Nationwide Permit 12 to summarily authorize the stream crossings needed to complete the project. These fast track measures are sure to be tested in court by the opponents who are not about to let their hard won victory be snatched away without a furious fight—in the courts as well as in the streets. While courts have ruled that the presidential permit itself is not reviewable, there is presumably no bar to challenging the decisions of the Corps and the Department of Interior that are necessary to complete the project.

The DAPL Memo directs the Secretary of the Army and the Chief of the Corps of Engineers to “review and approve in an expedited manner, to the extent permitted by law and as warranted, and with such conditions as are necessary or appropriate, requests for approvals to construct and operate the DAPL, including easements or rights-of-way to cross Federal areas under section 28 of the Mineral Leasing Act.” The Memo also instructs the Secretary to consider whether to rescind the memorandum issued by the Obama administration requiring preparation of an EIS on DAPL’s request for an easement to cross Lake Oahe, and to deem the previously-issued Environmental Assessment sufficient to satisfy NEPA.

The Standing Rock protest over DAPL has become an historic confrontation that has united an Indigenous land-and-water movement and climate activism to confront a fossil-fuel corporation protected by a militarized police force. At one point in December thousands of veterans arrived to provide a safe space for the protesters who call themselves “water protectors.” Litigation filed by the Standing Rock Tribe and other tribes challenging the Corps’ issuance of permits under the Clean Water Act and Rivers and Harbors Act is pending in federal district court in the District of Columbia. Judge Boasberg denied a preliminary injunction but has yet to rule on the merits of the case. At the moment, the court is considering DAPL’s motion for summary judgment to declare that the project already has all of the approvals it needs and the Corps should not be able to reverse its earlier decision that an EIS was not required. Though the Justice Department has vigorously opposed this move, it will be interesting to see whether the Trump administration adopts a different posture. In any event, the Tribe has raised serious questions about whether the Corps properly evaluated threats to its water supply intake and alternative routes that would lessen the risk. One of the allegations invokes environmental justice concerns arguing that the project was re-routed away from Bismarck in response to concerns about threats to its water supply. The Tribe has also raised novel questions about whether granting the easement would violate treaty rights under the 1851 Treaty of Fort Laramie.

At the hearing on DAPL’s motion for summary judgment, Judge Boasberg acknowledged the uncertainty about what the new administration might do but observed that “It’s not my business to guess.” For now the rest of us will have to guess at what the final outcome of this epic confrontation that has galvanized indigenous peoples from all over the world will be.

American College of Environmental Lawyers, The ACOEL, is a professionalassociation of lawyers distinguished by experience and high standards in the practice of environmental law, ethics, and the development of environmental law.