2015 and the Tambuwal puzzle

Associate editor, Sam Egburonu, reports that General Ibrahim Babangida’s recent advice that the Speaker of House of Representatives, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, should vie for a higher office has further complicated the 2015 puzzle.

Since he emerged the country’s Number Four citizen, rather unexpectedly, many myths have been created around the Speaker of House of Representatives, Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal.

While some say the chieftain of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may have been adopted by unseen hands as the bridge between the conservatives and the progressives in Nigeria’s political equation, others, especially his political rivals, insist he is only an opportunist who is being used by the opposition to get back at the ruling party.

As a result of these conflicting perspectives, every action taken by the Speaker, since his emergence, has been a subject of intricate scrutiny and controversy. His leadership style at the lower House, coupled with his bluntness has not helped matters, thus making him one of the most watched and discussed political leaders in the country.

So, when on Saturday, April 6, 2013, at the investiture of Governor Rotimi Amaechi as the Vanguard Man of the Year, former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida, called on Tambuwal to consider running for a higher office, based on his “outstanding performance,” both his political rivals and close observers came to the conclusion that the Speaker may have been endorsed by some powerful political caucus to contest the 2015 presidential election.

Given Babangida’s position, both as a former military president and as one of Nigeria’s most powerful political godfathers alive, all stakeholders in the country, including the Presidency, have since gone back to their political chessboard to either factor in the person of Tambuwal in their 2015 presidential calculation or seek a way of ensuring the plans of his sponsors are rubbished. This development, according to insiders, has deepened the already icy relationship between the Speaker and some top leaders at the Presidency.

Notwithstanding clear signals that President Goodluck Jonathan is poised to contest for reelection in 2015, Babangida had said pointedly that Tambuwal’s performance and conduct in office had shown that he had the capacity “to sustain the labour of our heroes past,” adding, “When leaders like Tamuwal delivered on their electoral promise, we advise them to try something higher. For Tambuwal, your guess is as good as mine. Well done.”

Between Tambuwal and Jonathan

Even before Babangida’s open endorsement of Tambuwal for a “higher office,” which Presidency sources said was a mere confirmation of what has been suspected; it has been one long endless battle between the Speaker and the Presidency.

Starting from the case of subsidy management probe, the issue of Security and Exchange Commission (SEC), where the House demanded Madam Arunma Oteh’s exit, to the 2012 implementation controversy, the Speaker has dared to be as blunt as possible and this has further fuelled the suspicion.

For example, at the peak of the 2012 Budget implementation controversy, Tambuwal was unsparing. After the initial disagreements, which delayed the presentation of the 2013 budget by President Jonathan, Tambuwal shocked the PDP leadership when, at the budget presentation venue, he still spoke his mind while presenting the vote of thanks.

He had said, “I would have been done with my vote of thanks at this point, except that the mention of certain salient points of critical importance to our collective resolve for good governance is compelling. Mr. President Sir, given that the 469 elected members of the National Assembly have closer interaction with the nooks and crannies of the nation, we are privileged to feel the people’s pulse more intensely and we feel same on behalf and for the benefit and guidance of all the arms of government.

“Surely Mr. President and his deputy, being the elected officials on the other side cannot be expected to be in 109 Senatorial Districts; worse still, 360 Federal Constituencies. Therefore, when we feel this pulse, we are duty bound to communicate to you.

“As I speak, interim field oversight reports from House Committees on the 2012 budget implementation are clearly unimpressive both in terms of releases as well as utilisation and this is a great challenge to all of us. It is important to state, at this point, the clear provisions of Section 8 of the Appropriation Act to the effect that approved budgeted funds shall be released to MDAs ‘as at when due’. This is sadly observed more in breach.”

Although Jonathan tried to keep an open face after that clear disapproval of his government’s style by an influential member of his political party, insiders told The Nation that since then, the leadership of PDP, especially the elders had given up on hopes that the youthful Speaker would learn to play the game the way PDP would want it. They had therefore drawn a line, with some of them declaring Tambuwal as one of the disloyal members, whose actions must be carefully noted in order to avoid a form of political implosion.

But close associates of the Speaker, reacting to these criticisms, have argued that Tambuwal is not really an opponent of the ruling party or of Jonathan, but an independently minded leader, determined to say his mind in all circumstances.

So far, the presidency and the ruling party are not impressed by such denials and so, the Presidential aides, especially those responsible for 2015, have been allegedly briefed to follow up on Bagangida’s recent puzzle and Tambuwal’s card.

How the Tambuwal factor started

Although some aides and associates of Tambuwal would, as Babangida alluded while endorsing him, trace the Tambuwal factor to his performance, the fact is that the political intrigues that threw him up and installed him as the Speaker of the House, at a time his North-West zone was not expected to produce a Speaker, were really responsible for the attention he has attracted since then.

It would be recalled that the events of June 1, 2011, running up to June 6, 2011, when he finally emerged, sowed the seed of discord between Tambuwal and the leadership of PDP. The party had zoned the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives to the South-West but partly because the zone had less than 10 out of the 360 members of the House, Tambuwal easily got the support of radical and progressive members of the House, most of who wanted to challenge the status quo. Together, they made a mess of PDP’s calculations.

Perhaps, in a bid to sustain the popularity he garnered within the house during that intriguing week, Tambuwal had since remained on the side of the people whenever issues of national interest put the people on one side against the federal government of PDP.

Another major factor that has continued to worry the PDP leadership is Tambuwal’s alleged closeness with the opposition political parties. An aide of the Speaker, who requested not to be named since his principal has not given him permission to speak on the matter, explained that Tambuwal, who is not unaware of the factors that made his emergence possible, is relating to all because he wants to carry everybody along. “The Speaker, though a passionate member of PDP, is not unaware of his position as Speaker of the House, who must carry everybody along,” he said.

He began his political career, according to official records, between 1999 and 2000, “while working as Personal Assistant on Legislative Affairs to Senator Abdullahi Wali, the then Senate Leader.

“In 2003, he ran for a legislative seat as representative of the Kebbi/Tambuwal Federal Constituency. He was elected into the House of Representatives on the platform of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP).”

Few months to the 2007 general elections, he reportedly defected to the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) alongside the former governor of Sokoto State, Attahiru Bafarawa. But when the DPP denied return tickets to former ANPP legislators, Tambuwal returned to the ANPP, where he got ticket for the election.

He was to join the PDP in 2007, alongside the former ANPP governorship candidate for Sokoto State, Alhaji Aliyu Wamakko.

In 2005, he became the Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, a position he held until he defected to the PDP. When he was re-elected to the House in 2007, he was elected Deputy Chief Whip of the House.

So, fundamentally, Tambuwal has been linked more with the progressives than core conservatives and this, said an insider, is the source of the suspicion of the leadership of PDP.

Given his deep association with progressives in the opposition political parties before and now, the fear within PDP and the presidency, according to a top PDP official, is that “Tambuwal’s alleged ambition to vie for a higher office, an agenda of some forces strongly opposed to Jonathan’s 2015 reelection bids, enjoys his tacit support.”

While PDP may be worried by Tambuwal’s style, our findings show that the Speaker is currently enjoying some popularity because of his perceived transparent style of leadership at the House.