Last spring, for example, Paul Beckwith of Sierra Club Canada confidently told the world that the Arctic seas would be ice-free this past summer (2013). The BBC made the same prediction.

That drew boat owners of every description eager to make it through the fabled Northwest Passage. They came in yachts, sailboats, rowboats, kayaks — even a few on jet-ski personal watercraft.

The fun didn’t last long. It turned out to be one of the coldest summers on record. By late August, ice blockages were forming on some channels. By September, ice had sealed the passage and locked at least a dozen craft in its fearsome embrace.

Losses will be extensive. Some of the boats were luxurious, costly vessels. All will be write-offs.Although the media constantly bombards us with reports of retreating ice in the Arctic, it’s been revealed that as of the end of September the net ice coverage on northern waters was 73% greater than at the same time last year.

The adventurers should have known better. Our planet’s overall temperature has not wavered much for the last 17 years. In 2007, NASA predicted cooler winters until 2030.

Even a better acquaintance with the historical record might have helped. In the mid-18th century British scientists and explorers were dumbstruck by the dramatic disappearance of Arctic ice. Imminent open-water travel through the Northwest Passage was forecast. Then, like Doc Williams’ cat, the ice came back.

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