The new methodology has been put to use to ascertain China’s exposure to fossil fuel-related losses in a new report published by Carbon Tracker, entitled Nowhere to hide: Using satellite imagery to estimate the utilisation of fossil fuel power plants. The report shows that, with over 1,000 operating coal plants, 40% of China’s coal-fired power plants are already losing money, a figure which could rise to 95% by 2040. Carbon Tracker has not been able to provide this report to Chinese state-owned power companies — not unsurprising, given the difficulty for outsiders to do so in China — but the think tank is planning a Chinese roadshow for 2019 where they will seek to work with local partners to disseminate their research to companies.

“Satellite imagery coupled with data science offers a powerful response to those governments and asset owners who are unwilling or unable to disclose timely and accurate data,” explained Matt Gray, head of power and utilities at Carbon Tracker. “If China fails to phase-out coal power, the world will fail to contain dangerous climate change. Our analysis proves it is in China’s own financial interests to retire coal in a manner consistent with the Paris Agreement.”

The report also highlights how it would be cheaper to build new onshore wind farms than continuing to operate their coal fleet by 2021, while new solar PV would be cheaper to run than coal by 2025. For example, China’s National Energy Investment Group, the world’s largest power company, is at risk of losing $66 billion in stranded assets if it pursues business as usual policies, risking half its total capital. Two other companies — Guangdong Yudean Group and Zhejiang Energy Group — are at risk of losing more than their total capital in stranded assets ($22 billion and $26 billion respectively). In the end, according to Carbon Tracker, China’s coal power owners could save $389 billion by closing coal plants as compared to continuing business as usual.