Aaron Torres’ Take

Besides rooting for your own team, the best part of the NCAA Tournament is the upsets. At the end of the day, and at the end of the tournament, it’s basically all we remember besides the national champion. In six months or five years, no one (outside of each team’s fans) will remember if Syracuse made the Sweet 16 or Texas Tech the Elite Eight. But we always remember the Loyola of Chicago’s and Nevada’s and George Mason’s.

Therefore, with the brackets now a couple days old, it’s time to talk upsets. Everyone wants to know which lower seeded teams could pull of a surprise win or two – which is exactly why I’m here today.

To be clear, I’m not saying all these teams will pull an upset, just that they are capable of it.

Here are five double-digit seeds that could win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament.

The Aggies have one of the wildest stories in all of college basketball this season. After making the NCAA Tournament last year (where they lost to Clemson in the first round), New Mexico State lost basically their entire team – 10 players in total. Head coach Chris Jans brought in a bunch of guys, but by the time the season started he still really had no idea who was good and who wasn’t. No one had separated themselves in practice, no one had emerged as a star. Nothing.

So he decided to play just about everybody on his roster, assuming it would sort itself out. But then a funny thing happened: Nobody really stood out, but the Aggies kept winning. So Jans stuck with it.

It led to where we are today, where the Aggies have fourteen different players – FOURTEEN – who average at least 10 minutes of playing time a game, with just one player averaging double-figures in scoring. It’s also what makes New Mexico State a logistical nightmare to prepare for: They have so many guys, that you never really know who can beat you on any given night. They also aren’t susceptible to foul trouble, and aren’t really susceptible to one bad game from one player costing them. If one guy has an off night, there are five ready to step into his place.

Add it all up, and New Mexico State is a team that won’t be worn down by Auburn’s fast-paced style and won’t be scared if the Tigers knock down a few threes – since New Mexico State plays nearly as fast, and shoots nearly as many three’s as Auburn. On the season, Auburn ranked fourth nationally in three-point shot attempts. New Mexico State, eighth.

New Mexico State has been to seven of the last eight NCAA Tournaments, but has yet to pick up a win.

Look, we all know the story of this game: It’s Marquette’s Markus Howard vs. Murray State’s Ja Morant. They’re arguably the two best guards in this tournament and are certainly the two highest scorers. Howard averaged 25 points per game this season, while Morant averaged 24.6. That, to go along with 10 assists per game, which led the nation.

That’s also why I like Murray State so much: They have the best player on the floor, and arguably, the best player in this tournament not named “Zion Williamson.” Morant has proven time and time again that even when teams have time to game-plan for him that he is still unstoppable. Remember, he had 36 points in the Ohio Valley Championship game against Belmont (an NCAA Tournament team), and also played arguably his two best games against the two Power 5 teams that Murray State played this season. Morant dropped a staggering 38 points against Alabama (to the point that he got a standing ovation from the crowd at Coleman Coliseum when the game ended), and had 25 points, eight rebounds and seven assists at Auburn as well.

So if Morant can do that against Auburn and Alabama, why can’t he do that against Marquette? Especially when you consider that Marquette has been abysmal down the stretch, losing their last four regular season games and five of six overall.

Saint Mary’s shocked the college basketball world when they upset Gonzaga to clinch the WCC automatic bid. In the process they sent Twitter into a frenzy, with America demanding to know how Gonzaga could possibly get a No. 1 seed after that game.

But while the story became about the Zags, what it overshadowed was that Saint Mary’s has been playing insanely well of late. Prior to that win, they had won nine of their previous 11 games, with the only losses coming to Gonzaga. Literally, against everyone other than Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s had won every game since late January. And they avenged that loss in big-time fashion, putting on the best defensive effort of the season against the Zags. Not bad, considering Gonzaga played North Carolina, Duke and Tennessee in the regular season.

On the flip side, I know it feels weird to bet against the defending national champions at Villanova, but just know this: In each of the last two seasons, the defending champion hasn’t gotten out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Last year North Carolina (the 2017 champ) lost to Texas A&M in the second round of the Big Dance, and in 2017, Villanova (which won the title the season before) lost in the second round to Wisconsin.

And when you add that in with the fact that Villanova lost four of its final six regular season games, and that Jay Wright has only gotten out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament twice in the last 10 NCAA Tournaments (incredibly, he went on to win the national title in each of those instances), this one feels like it’s way more probable than a lot of people realize.

If you’ve been following me on Twitter (and if you haven’t, shame on you) you know that I think the world of UC-Irvine coach Russell Turner. “Man-crush” might be a bit strong. But I did have to restrain from sending him a card on his birthday.

Yes, I’m kidding. I think.

Honestly though, on the court the guy is just a stone-cold stud. He’s won 20 or more games in six of the last seven years, an insane run for a mid-major coach. He has also finished in first or second in his league each of the last five seasons. Usually a coach gets a bigger job before he can have that kind of sustained success.

Of course there’s a reason that he hasn’t gotten that big job yet: The Anteaters (yes, that’s UC-Irvine’s nickname) only made one NCAA Tournament during that stretch, where they lost to Louisville in the first round (they’re the team with Mamadou N’Diaye. Remember him?). And really, that is UC-Irvine’s problem: If you’re a mid-major, it’s hard to get noticed if you don’t make the NCAA Tournament and win games.

That’s also why I’m so bullish on them this season: This is a veteran team, with five senior starters, who have won a ton of games and aren’t afraid of anyone. And they’ve finally broken through in the NCAA Tournament, after years of knocking on the door but not quite getting there.

Two other reasons why I like this pick: One, Kansas State is less than 100 percent, as forward Dean Wade is still recovering from a foot injury. As it stands, it looks like he won’t play in this game.

And two, this game tips off at 11 a.m. local time in California. Kansas State probably already doesn’t want to be in San Jose, and certainly doesn’t care about the opponent. And now they have to play at 11 a.m.? I can’t imagine they’ll be too excited for that.

South Region: No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (Friday, 4:50 ET)

It’s funny because in a vacuum I really do like Wisconsin, and thought they were a team which could make a nice, solid run to the Sweet 16. Then I saw their draw. And I hate everything about it.

The bottom line is that Oregon is red-hot after taking home the Pac-12 title and winning eight straight games, and is the exact kind of team that will give Wisconsin problems. They are hyper-athletic, with NBA bodies and play lights out defense. Incredibly, they have opponents to just 54 points per game during that eight-game win streak, a number which actually skews high after going to overtime in the Pac-12 semifinals. Take that game out, and they’re allowing just 51 points per game over the same stretch.

Point being, Oregon is hot, playing its best ball of the season and is a stylistic nightmare for Wisconsin.

It’s the moment America we’ve been waiting a year for — the bracket is out, and our college basketball insider Aaron Torres makes his picks. Aaron goes region by region, game by game and tells you who he likes and why. Highlights:

A Game-by-Game Tournament Breakdown: Aaron goes through each individual game and tells you who he likes, why, and what the key matchups will be. What players do you need to know? What teams could be Cinderella? Aaron has all the answers.

Upset Picks: Aaron has a bunch of upsets that could potentially shake up your bracket. He has two No. 12 seeds upsetting five-seed, and one four-seed that he is positive won’t get out of the first round. Also, could the defending champion Villanova Wildcats be in trouble?

Who’s going to win it all? Finally, Aaron makes his Final Four and national championship picks. He tells you the one reason Duke won’t win the title, and why Tennessee-Virginia might be the game of the tournament. Is Kentucky in the Final Four? Who wins the title? Stay tuned for Aaron’s final picks!

Well folks, we’ve made it. We are here. The best Monday on the entire calendar year. Selection Sunday has passed, brackets are in hand, and we are roughly 72 hours from the tip of the first full day of the NCAA Tournament.

This is basically Christmas morning for everyone who loves college basketball.

But of course, now that your brackets are in hand, your mind is probably racing in a million different directions. You’re probably thinking weird thoughts that you never imagined you would like, “Wait, didn’t I watch a Northeastern game back in January or was that Northwestern?” and “Colgate, is that a dental school?” (Get it, Colgate University… Colgate toothpaste… Ok, bad joke)

Thankfully, I’m here to help.

I don’t claim to have all the answers when it comes to filling out your bracket – nobody does. But I do feel confident saying that I watch about as much college basketball as anyone and probably know more about these teams than most.

Which is why I am here today.

Below are 25 tips to filling out your bracket. These aren’t picks (I’ll put those out later on my Twitter feed @Aaron_Torres) but instead just information that you should know ranging from historical trends, to teams who are playing well and poorly, and other little nuggets that might come in handy over the next few days.

So what do you need to know before filling out your bracket. Here are 25 things: (more…)

It is the greatest week of the year, and on this episode of the Aaron Torres Sports Podcast, Aaron gets you ready for all the major conference tournaments. Who will end up with No. 1 seeds? What bubble games matter? And what to make of the race in the SEC? Aaron’s got you taken care of. Here is a rundown of the show:

Will Zion Be Back? How Does it Impact the No. 1 Seed Picture: It’s the question everyone in college basketball wants to know — will we see Zion Williamson back on the sidelines in the ACC Tournament? Aaron explains why he’s still not sure if it’ll happen and what it will mean for the No. 1 seed picture. Aaron also explains why the ACC won’t get three No. 1 seeds.

Major Conference Tournament Preview: Aaron previews all of the big storylines ahead of the Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and Big Ten Tournaments. What are the big bubble games? Will the Pac-12 only get one bid? And is the Big 12 over-hyped by the media?

What Will Happen in the SEC? Aaron wraps by talking SEC Tournament. He discusses the impact that Reid Travis has on Kentucky, when he expects Travis back and what it means for UK. Also, why LSU is the most fascinating team in Nashville, why Florida and Alabama still have work to do, and is there one bubble team no one is talking about?

Champ Week is here, and if I’ve told you once, I’ve told you 1000 times: This is the best week on the entire sports calendar! Take the urgency of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, add in the fact that your favorite team is playing 3-4 times (against quality competition) and that we get wall-to-wall basketball from noon until after midnight, Tuesday-Saturday, ending with a bracket on Sunday, and honestly, it doesn’t get much better than this.

To loosely quote the movie Field of Dreams: “Is this heaven.” No, it’s Champ Week people!

Of course while the excitement of Champ Week trumps pretty much everything else of importance these next few days (most notably: actual work responsibilities) it’s easy to forget that what happens over the next week will shape everything to come in the NCAA Tournament. There are a million little questions that will be answered this week, that will clarify the picture going into next weekend.

So what are the biggest questions in Champ Week that will impact what’s to come in the NCAA Tournament? Let’s take a look:

What’s the Deal With Zion?

I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again: While “What’s the Deal with Zion?” sounds like the opening to a bad Seinfeld episode, it really is the single most important question of Champ Week. Zion’s presence in Duke’s lineup (or lack of presence) shakes up the entire bracket, from the No. 1 seed line on down, and sways the national championship odds as well. If Zion is back and clicking with Duke, they are the best team in college basketball. If he isn’t, then the tournament is relatively wide open, with probably 6-10 teams capable of winning the title.

The question now: Will we see Zion this week?

The answer feels like it should be a “yes” since Coach K said he expects Zion back for the ACC Tournament. Then again, Coach K has changed the timeline on Zion’s return roughly 87 times since he went down with his original knee injury four weeks ago. It’s ranged from “He’s not even close to ready” (following the Virginia Tech game), to “He’s at a 4 out of 4 in the recovery process” (following a win over Miami) to “He still hasn’t practiced at full speed” (after a near loss to Wake Forest).

I don’t want to say that Coach K’s nose grows every time he discusses Zion, but let’s just say that umm… this time-frame has changed quite a bit.

Ultimately though, this question is pretty straight-forward and won’t take all week to figure out. Duke tips off Thursday at 9:30 p.m. ET, and if he is back in the lineup Duke is more than capable of making a run in the ACC Tournament and potentially locking up a No. 1 seed. If he isn’t, Duke isn’t making it out of the semifinals against North Carolina and may very likely lose their opener to Syracuse.

Zion is that important. And we should finally get some closure on his status in the coming days.

Will the ACC Get Three No. 1 Seeds?

Let me just go ahead and squash this one right away: If either Kentucky or Tennessee wins the SEC Tournament the answer is “no.” No, the ACC will not get three No. 1 seeds. So we can just go ahead and stop talking about it right now.

As things stand, we know how the No. 1 seed picture looks. Virginia is a lock to get a No. 1 seed and Gonzaga will clinch one if they clinch the WCC Tournament this evening. I believe that either Duke or North Carolina will get one, depending on how the ACC Tournament shakes out. And I believe that the winner of Kentucky-Tennessee in the semifinal of the SEC Tournament will get one as well. Michigan State could also sneak onto that top line if the win the Big Ten Tournament.

Now look, is there some far-flung scenario where it could possibly happen? Yes, sure. If Tennessee and Kentucky both get upset early in Nashville, then maybe. If Zion returns and Duke looks awesome – and still loses to Carolina, then maybe Duke will creep back in the conversation if there are upsets in the SEC or Big Ten.

But this isn’t rocket science and shouldn’t need too much explanation: If nothing wacky happens, the ACC won’t end up with three No. 1 seeds come Selection Sunday.

Unless pigs fly, hell freezes over or Will Wade is reinstated as LSU’s head coach, the answer is no.

The bottom line is that I wasn’t totally sure that LSU could get a No. 1 seed even before Wade and guard Javonte Smart were both sidelined indefinitely. As great as the Tigers’ resume is, they have two losses (home to Arkansas and Oklahoma State on a neutral court) that are worse than any losses any other No. 1 seed contenders took.

And that was before Wade and Smart were suspended indefinitely with no time-frame to return.

Remember, the NCAA has to judge teams based on who they will be in the NCAA Tournament – in other words, what players will be available and in LSU’s case, whether their head coach will be there. Well, LSU won’t have its head coach and likely won’t have one of its key players unless things change.

So unless they do, we can go ahead and assume that LSU won’t end up with a No. 1 seed. Even if they win the SEC Tournament.

Will Indiana Play Themselves Off the Bubble and Into the NCAA Tournament?

To me, the Indiana Hoosiers are the single most fascinating team on the bubble right now. And to be blunt, I actually see both sides of the conversation on them. On the one hand, I’ve been a big advocate that we should let in the small schools of the world into the Big Dance (the Lipscomb’s and Belmont’s) over lousy Power 5 teams. Considering Indiana currently sits at 17-14 overall and lost 12 of 13 at one point, this should be a no-brainer.

At the same time, I will give Indiana credit for this: Unlike other lousy bubble teams from power conferences (I’m looking at you, TCU, and everyone in the Big East), the Hoosiers actually have good wins to fall back on. To their credit Indiana played one of the toughest schedules in college basketball, and did pick up some nice wins, including a season sweep of Michigan State, and victories over Wisconsin, Marquette and Louisville. Also to their credit, the Hoosiers have been playing well of late. They have won four straight headed to the Big Ten Tournament.

Still, that doesn’t change the fact that Indiana has work to do. The Hoosiers open the Big Ten Tournament with what is essentially a “Loser is out of the Big Dance” showdown with Ohio State on Thursday afternoon. Indiana probably needs to win that one just to get back in the picture – and they probably need to beat Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals to feel really good about a bid.

Win those two and they’re in. Lose in either game, and it’s probably off to the NIT for the folks in Bloomington.

Which Will the Committee Prefer: Small Schools with Great Records? Or Average Power 5 Schools?

This has been the great debate within college basketball this season, as time has gone on and the bubble has gotten softer and softer. Will the committee value really good mid-major teams who don’t win their conference tournaments? Or average to below-average Power 5 teams, who have worse records but clearly play tougher schedules?

To me, the answer seems simple: I believe that winning should have to matter and I don’t believe we should reward mediocrity. It’s why I wouldn’t have Indiana (17-14) in, unless they win a few more games. It’s why I wouldn’t have Texas in at all, after they finished the regular season at 16-15 overall. I wouldn’t have TCU (19-12, 7-11 in the Big 12) or Creighton, which went 18-13 this season. Instead, I’d take Belmont (which is 26-6 and lost in the OVC Final to Murray State) and Lipscomb, which lost in the Atlantic Sun final on Sunday, but also beat TCU and a couple other high-major teams this season.

Ultimately we’ve seen what the TCU’s and Creighton’s and Clemson’s can do against high-major competition – and it ain’t pretty. So unless one of those teams makes a major run in a deep conference, I say send them to the NIT and send the little guy to the Big Dance.

What Are the Key Bubble Games?

Since we’re talking bubble, and teams that are playing themselves on and off, let’s hit a few of the big ones.

Indiana vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament (Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET) is a huge one. Neither team is guaranteed a tournament spot if they win, but the loser will almost certainly be out. NC State-Clemson (Wednesday, 12:00 p.m. ET) is a huge one in the 8-9 game in the ACC. To me, a loss would eliminate Clemson from tournament consideration. I’m not positive a loss would eliminate NC State, but they would certainly be sweating come Selection Sunday. In the SEC, Florida probably needs to beat Arkansas to feel comfortably in, and Alabama would probably need at least two wins – against Ole Miss and Kentucky – to get themselves on the right side of the bubble. Good luck with that.

And finally there is the Big East, where there are five teams that could legitimately play themselves onto the bubble or off depending on how they perform in New York. If St. John’s wins their opening round game they will be in – but if they lose, they will be sweating come Selection Sunday. Butler also plays in the opening round, and probably needs to make it to the title game to get into serious bubble conversation. Creighton likely needs to beat Xavier to secure their spot, and Xavier likely needs to beat Creighton and win one more game just to get on the bubble. And finally there’s Georgetown which also probably needs two wins to get into Big Dance conversation.

Get it? Got it? Good.

The bubble is as fluid as its ever been, and a couple teams will surely get bounced.

Is the Pac-12 a One-Bid League?

This began as a tongue-in-cheek joke to start the season, when Pac-12 teams took some terrible losses out of conference (Oregon to Texas Southern, USC to Santa Clara, UCLA by 15 to Liberty) but it has become reality now that we’re in March: Is the Pac-12 a one-bid league?

If Washington wins the conference tournament, the answer is probably a “Yes.”

On the surface, the Huskies look like they’re comfortably in – but even they would be dangerously close to the bubble if they lost their Pac-12 Tournament opener. They will face the winner of Wednesday’s Arizona-USC tilt (the fact that USC and Arizona – the top two seeds last year, are playing in the 8-9 game should tell you everything you need to know about the Pac-12 this year). But assuming Washington is not only in, but wins the conference tournament, there’s only one other team (Arizona State) that is even in the conversation for an at-large berth. And the Sun Devils probably need two wins in Las Vegas to feel really safe.

What has been a bad year out West could become embarrassing this week. Can you imagine if a Power 5 conference got just one bid to the Big Dance?

Is this Sean Miller’s Swan Song at Arizona?

Following Arizona’s loss to Arizona State on Saturday, a wild video circulated on Twitter with Sean Miller addressing the crowd at the McKale Center. In it, he thanked his seniors and then dropped the following commentary:

“There’s no place that’s more magical than McKale Center,” Miller said. “There’s no fans in the world that are more loyal. It has been an amazing honor to coach in McKale Center for the last 10 years. Thank you for everything.”

Immediately, social media blew up with many wondering whether Miller was unofficially acknowledging that he has coached his final home game at Arizona. The FBI probe has been hanging over him for close to two years now, and as we all know, he has been subpoenaed to appear in court on April 22nd.

Still, after doing some digging, I don’t necessarily buy that this was Miller’s swan song. One, I was told that Miller regularly addresses the crowd at McKale Center after Arizona’s final home game. I also think he actually does feel indebted to Arizona fans who have stuck by him throughout this whole controversy. And finally, Arizona’s top two recruits, McDonald’s All-Americans Nico Mannion and Josh Green were at the game. Even if a coach knows there is a chance he could be gone, is he really giving that kind of speech in front of his two most high-profile recruits?

Mannion basically confirmed as much on Twitter following the game.

after being at McKale & seeing firsthand all the fan support as well as a great conversation with Coach Miller, i’m more excited than ever to be a Wildcat! ???

So yes, in theory, this could be Miller’s final week walking the sidelines as head coach at Arizona. But as of right now, I believe that he expects to be back next year.

What Other Coaches Are Coaching for Their Jobs?

Miller isn’t the only one who could be coaching his final meaningful games at his current school. There are a handful of others who will probably either stay or go at their current jobs, depending on how the next few weeks go.

To put it simply, Richard Pitino probably needs to make the NCAA Tournament to keep his job at Minnesota. A win over Penn State on Thursday should seal that bid. But a loss could put the Golden Gophers on the wrong side of the bubble and send Pitino to the unemployment line. On the other sideline, Penn State’s Pat Chambers is probably done at the school, but could a good run save him?

Across the rest of college basketball, Cal’s Wyking Jones, Boston College’s Jim Christian and Wake Forest’s Danny Manning are all hanging onto their jobs for dear life. Manning already lost his ACC Tournament opener on Tuesday afternoon, and if Wake decides to make a move, they could do it soon. A few more wins might buy Jones and Christian some time. But they might also be out of time as well.

And finally in the SEC, it seems like Billy Kennedy’s run at Texas A&M is coming to an end. Despite making two Sweet 16 runs in the last four years, the Aggies seem ready to move in a new direction.

What else will pop up?

The great thing about Championship Week is that just when we think we know all the storylines going in, new ones emerge.

Which schools will take unexpected losses and see their bubble burst? Which others will play themselves onto the bubble and maybe into the NCAA Tournament? And which leagues will provide us a bid stealer or two?

Well folks, we’ve made it. It…is…officially… Championship… Week!! For my money, the best week in all of sports.

That’s right, while some will (falsely) make the claim that the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is the best sports week of the year, I disagree. In Champ Week we get wall-to-wall basketball from noon until well after midnight eastern, pretty much every day from Tuesday to Saturday. Plus, we get to see the best teams three and sometimes four times, as opposed to just once or twice in the NCAA Tournament. And we’ve got all the same desperation that comes with the first weekend of March, as small schools battle for automatic bids and bubble squads fight to secure tourney spots.

So all of that is my nice way of say…. BUCKLE UP, because these next few days are about to get crazy. The major conference tournaments start tomorrow (Tuesday) when the ACC Tournament begins, and the non-stop hoops will run pretty much straight until the bracket is revealed late on Sunday evening.

The question now: What do you need to know heading into Champ Week? Here is a preview guide of the week ahead, featuring all the big storylines, heading into all the bit tournaments.

The final weekend of the college basketball season has come and gone, and oh boy, there is a lot to talk about on this Aaron Torres Sports Podcast. Aaron discusses the entire weekend that was, including:

The Latest at LSU: Aaron takes a deep dive into LSU. Why suspending Will Wade was the wrong move for LSU and why Aaron would have let him keep coaching. Also, why he likes LSU embracing the role of college basketball’s “bad boys.” Aaron also explains why if you’re mad at LSU for cheating, you better be mad at Kansas, Duke and Arizona as well.

Why the ACC Won’t Get Three No. 1 Seeds: Aaron talks about the idiotic new storyline the ACC will get three No. 1 seeds. He wonders why everyone is so positive that Zion Williamson comes back and why, even if he does, that doesn’t guarantee Duke will win enough to get a No. 1. Also why Kentucky, Tennessee and Michigan State are all more likely to get a No. 1 seed than a third ACC squad.

A Crazy College Basketball Weekend: A look at the rest of the weekend includes why 2019 might be one of John Calipari’s best coaching jobs yet, the incredible story of Texas Tech’s rise to Big 12 champ under Chris Beard and Sean Miller’s bizarre comments following Arizona’s season finale on Saturday. Did Miller’s speech hint that he expects to be gone this off-season?

It’s a new episode of the Aaron Torres Sports Podcast, and oh what an episode it is, as Aaron is joined by former Louisville head coach David Padgett. He and Aaron discuss his one tumultuous year at Louisville, as well as what his future holds. But first, Aaron welcomes on his buddy Nick Coffey, as they discuss the bombshell report on LSU Thursday. Here is a rundown of today’s topics:

LSU could be in BIG trouble: Just minutes before taping, Yahoo put out a report in which LSU head coach Will Wade is alleged to have set up payment for a current player, believed to be freshman guard Javonte Smart. Aaron and Nick react in real time: Why this is such a bad look for LSU and what does the team do going forward? Will this impact the program? Will it impact the locker room? And why this hasn’t changed Aaron’s opinion that Wade has done an excellent “coaching” job this year, no matter how Wade got his players.

David Padgett joins the show: Next up, Aaron is joined by former Louisville coach David Padgett. He discusses his wild, one-year ride as Louisville head coach. What was the whirlwind like the day he got the job, what are his best memories and what does he wish he could do differently? Finally, how is he enjoying his new career in media? And does he plan on getting into coaching again?

Since the day the first reports came out over a year ago about the FBI’s investigation into college basketball, we’ve been waiting for the bombshells that would tear apart the sport. Yet outside of Rick Pitino’s firing, a few assistants losing their jobs, and some text messages that Bill Self sent to an Adidas bag man that no one besides me seems to care about, it’s been a relatively bombshell-less few months as this has all played out.

But finally it seems as though we might be getting somewhere in this investigation. A few weeks ago we found out that both LSU head coach Will Wade and Arizona coach Sean Miller could be subpoenaed to appear in trial in April.

And then today, even bigger news: Yahoo Sports released a transcript of a conversation that Wade had with Christian Dawkins (the man at the center of the whole investigation) that was caught on wiretap, where he is caught allegedly discussing a “hell of an offer” to a player, who appears to be freshman guard Javonte Smart.

This could be potentially damning news for LSU as it pursues an SEC regular season title and No. 1 seed in Nashville come next week, and completely shake up the college basketball world as we know it.

Details are scarce right now, but here is what you need to know, and what could happen (or not happen) to LSU going forward:

Put simply, Wade is caught on a wiretap talking to Christian Dawkins (a runner for a sports agent) about a player. Wade is frustrated because he thought that he had a deal done – a “hell of an offer” as he described it – for the player. But now there is a hiccup and it’s not getting done.

That hiccup was apparently this: Wade made the offer to a third-party guy, with some of the “offer” intended to go to the player and his family, and some of it going to the third-party guy. Wade believes that the problem is simple. Too much of the “offer” was intended for the player and his family. And now the third-party guy is upset he isn’t getting enough of the cut.

Here is what he says, per Yahoo:

“The problem was, I know why he didn’t take it now, it was [expletive] tilted toward the family a little bit,” Wade continued. “It was tilted toward taking care of the mom, taking care of the kid. Like it was tilted towards that. Now I know for a fact he didn’t explain everything to the mom. I know now, he didn’t get enough of the piece of the pie in the deal.”

The “piece of the pie” is obviously whatever was being offered, and the “he” is the third party.

Who is the player involved:

While Wade doesn’t reference any player by name, he calls the whole situation the “Smart Thing,” which would lead most to assume that the alleged player is freshman guard Javonte Smart. Smart is a former Top 50 recruit, who is currently balling the heck out for LSU. He is averaging 18 points per game since getting moved into the lineup after Tremont Waters went down with an injury a few weeks back. That included a 29-point performance against Tennessee two weeks ago.

Here is what Wade said, again, per Yahoo:

“I was thinking last night on this Smart thing,” Wade said. “I’ll be honest with you, I’m [expletive] tired of dealing with the thing. Like I’m just [expletive] sick of dealing with the [expletive]. Like, this should not be that [expletive] complicated.”

Again, while we have no proof that it is definitively Smart. But the dates in the piece do line up with Smart’s recruitment.

Per Yahoo, Wade called Christian Dawkins four times between June 19th and June 30th in 2017.

Smart committed to the Tigers on June 30th of 2017.

(Photo by Chuck Cook, Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports)

What was offered?

That’s where it gets interesting – and what actually might be Wade’s saving grace… for now. There are no specifics about what the offer might be.

While we can all assume that Wade’s description of the deal being “A hell of an offer” isn’t code for room, board and tuition, there is nothing explicit that discusses money, housing or anything that constitutes a violation of NCAA rules.

Which leads us to…

What is the next step? And what do we ACTUALLY know?

It’s honestly hard to know.

On the one hand, this is a really, really, REALLY bad look for Wade. You don’t need to be one of the Hardy Boys to figure out that something wasn’t on the up-and-up here. Heck, you could have probably made those assumptions before today, when LSU signed the No. 3 recruiting class in the country last year, led by a star player from New Jersey (Naz Reid). This after they signed the top player in Connecticut (Tremont Waters) a year before. I’m not accusing anyone of anything. But admittedly that does, umm, look interesting to say the least.

At the same time, what do we actually know?

We hear Wade talking about an “offer” but there is no clarification on what is involved. We assume it’s money and extra benefits, but there is no proof.

Heck, we’re not even sure if when Wade says “The Smart thing,” that he is talking about Javonte Smart.

So what will the NCAA do?

When NCAA President Mark Emmert put together the Condoleezza Rice Commission on college basketball, the NCAA rulebook was altered for this exact situation. Under the old rules, even if an allegation came out in the media or in public records (like FBI wiretaps) the NCAA had to do its own investigation. Now, the NCAA can use those public records and enforce a punishment without their own investigation. It’s why Silvio De Sousa is in the midst of a two-year NCAA ban at Kansas (while Bill Self somehow keeps coaching. But that is neither here nor there).

Yet at the same time, what we got today wasn’t something that came out in trial. It is a report from Yahoo, on what they’ve been told happened.

My guess is that Yahoo has actually heard the wiretaps and that they do exist – otherwise I don’t think they would report this. But until they get played at trial, I’m not sure the NCAA can do much.

Plus, it’s not like all the media reports that have come out about this case have been air-tight. Never forget, ESPN came out with a report last year that Sean Miller was caught on a wiretap setting up a payment to DeAndre Ayton. A report that was later proven to be 100 percent false.

Point being, I’m not sure what the NCAA does.

What about LSU?

My guess is that LSU says “We’ll continue to investigate this” and nothing happens with Smart or Wade. At least not Wade. At least not right now.

At this point, what can they really do?

All they have is a report, that claims Wade was caught on wiretap setting up a deal.

But again, we’re not sure what the deal was for, or who it was intended for. And we haven’t heard the actual tape. It is in fact just a report.

If anything, I think it’s more likely that Javonte Smart has to sit out while LSU “investigates” the situation, but I’m not sure LSU can even do that. What proof do they really have that Wade was talking about Smart?

Still, while Smart is probably 50/50 on whether he continues to play, expect Will Wade will keep coaching until the end of the season, which leads me to…

Wade is set to appear in court in late April

And it’s at that point that we should know exactly what will happen. It’s also very likely that is when Wade will lose his job.

Remember, if Wade does get called to the witness stand he will be put under oath. And when he goes under oath he has no choice but to tell the truth. If he doesn’t, that’s called “perjury.” And perjury carries jail time if you’re guilty.

And depending on what Wade says under oath, that might be when LSU ends up firing him.

Right now, there is no reason to fire him because they don’t have proof he broke the rules. In other words, they don’t have “cause” which means that if he was fired, he’d have to be paid his full buyout.

Wait until he gets busted breaking NCAA rules on the witness stand, and that will be the time to get rid of him.

By the way, what is Will Wade (allegedly) doing? If Rick Pitino taught us anything, it's that the head coach should never be in the middle handling things himself. SMH https://t.co/mYpGsbeR9l

No, I’m not mad at him for breaking rules. But if Rick Pitino taught us anything, it’s that the head coach can never get caught making the deal himself. Heck, how many assistants have fallen on the sword for Pitino, who to date, has not been found guilty of committing an NCAA violation himself?

Yes, we know Pitino is dirtier than a rest stop toilet (sorry for the graphic detail), but give the man credit for this: He is smart enough to make sure his name can’t be directly tied to anything.

And he’ll probably get another college basketball coaching job because of it.

A quick thought on cheating in college sports

Another thing that caught my attention in this story was that Wade references specifically that it was a “hell of a deal” in part because the player (likely Smart) was going to be a 2-3 year college player.

“It was a [expletive] hell of a [expletive] offer,” Wade continued. “Hell of an offer.”

“Especially for a kid who is going to be a two- or three-year kid,” Wade said.

And with that quote, it made me think of something: The three players who were most caught up in this “Pay for Play” deal were Brian Bowen, Silvio De Sousa at Kansas and now, allegedly Javonte Smart. None of them was a one-and-done college player.

I only bring that up because of this: I know that this isn’t the time or place to argue about paying college players, or removing the one-and-done rule.

But at the same time, if we think that letting the top players go straight to the pros out of high school will eliminate cheating in college basketball, think again. Remember, Bowen, De Sousa and Smart weren’t even the elite players in their respective classes. There’s no telling what other talent went for.

And what people will continue to be willing to pay for elite players.

What was the great irony of this whole story?

Want to know what the craziest thing was about this story to me? Reading it, it seems pretty clear that Christian Dawkins had nothing to do with Javonte Smart’s recruitment. It was simply Wade calling up a buddy to vent to him, no different than how you would call a friend when something wasn’t going right for you at work.

That leads to…

Has LSU’s luck finally run out?

The Tigers got an advantageous call to seal a win at Rupp Arena, and a couple of questionable calls to win the Tennessee game. Both Wildcats and Vols fans have called LSU “lucky” throughout the season.

It’s March, and I’m a nice guy, and because I’m a nice guy, and because it’s March, I decided that it is time for the latest installment of “The Race for the No. 1 seeds.”

For you astute readers, over the last few weeks I’ve kept you updated on which teams are in position to get those No. 1’s, and what it will take for each team to secure a spot on the top line. And as we head into the final weekend of the regular season, it only seems appropriate we update that picture.

Here is what I wrote last week on the subject, and at this point, it doesn’t feel like a ton of explanation is needed. Right now I believe that one team has firmly clinched a No. 1 seed and one team is reeeeeeeeeeally close, leaving six schools battling for the final two spots.

Let’s take a look at the No. 1 seed race.

Before we get there, a quick reminder:

First, a few simple parameters before we get started

One, when I reference “Quad 1” and “Quad 2” wins and losses below, those are all according to the NCAA’s new “NET” rankings which will help put together the field of 68 and seed those teams. Games, wins and losses are broken up into “Quads” with the biggest games, against the best teams falling into “Quad 1” and so on so forth. The worst wins, against the worst teams in college basketball, fall into “Quad 4.”

Not surprisingly, the more Quad 1 wins and fewer Quad 1 losses you have, the better your resume will look.

Here is how the Quads break down, per the NET rankings:

Quadrant 1: Home Game 1-30; Neutral Site 1-50; Away Game 1-75

Quadrant 2: Home Game 31-75; Neutral Site 51-100; Away Game 76-135

Quadrant 3: Home Game 76-160; Neutral Site 101-200; Away Game 136-240

Quadrant 4: Home Game 161-plus; Neutral Site 201-plus; Away Game 241-plus

There really is nothing else to be said: With what they’ve over the last few weeks – and entire season really – Virginia has locked up a No. 1 seed. Their resume really is staggering, as they have 10 Quad 1 wins (tied for the most in college basketball) including a wild collection of road victories that includes wins at North Carolina, at Syracuse, at Virginia Tech, at Louisville and at Maryland. Love Virginia or hate them, there really is something to be said about a team whose only two losses came against Duke, when Duke was at full-strength.

Ultimately, we’ll spend the next few weeks debating whether this is the year Virginia might actually be good enough to win the title (for the first time in forever, I actually think the answer might be “yes.”). but right now, there is no debate: Virginia will be a No. 1 seed. Even if they lose to Louisville at home this weekend and in their ACC Tournament opener (which is unlikely) they are still a lock to end up on the one-line come Selection Sunday.

A week ago I fell under the camp of, “Even if Gonzaga wins out, I think there’s a chance they could get jumped by other teams on the No. 1 seed line.” But after Kentucky lost to Tennessee and Michigan State lost to Indiana, I think the possibility of Gonzaga getting jumped if they win out is next to impossible. Basically, if the Zags just win the West Coast Conference Tournament (which starts Friday and ends next Tuesday) you can go ahead and put them in pen for the No. 1 seed out West.

Now quickly, this is the part where I have to again put out the disclaimer: If you want to criticize their league, go ahead. To me, if Gonzaga wins out, they will have earned the No. 1 seed based on their wins over Duke, Washington and at Creighton, not to mention three likely wins against Saint Mary’s, which is a bubble team in its own right (assuming they play Saint Mary’s in the title game). Plus, I think there’s something to be said about a team that gets everyone’s best shot on any every night… and still kicks the crap out of them. Which is exactly what Gonzaga did this season. I don’t care how bad Gonzaga’s league is. They are a damn good team.

And independent of what your thoughts are on Gonzaga, what I can tell you is: If they win the WCC Tournament, they will be a No. 1 seed come Selection Sunday.

Duke is in the weird spot. And I actually both sides of the for and against “Should Duke be a No. 1 seed” argument.

On the “Duke deserves a No. 1 seed” side of the argument, their list of wins is absolutely staggering. The Blue Devils are the only team to beat Virginia – and have done it twice. They beat Texas Tech, which might win the Big 12. And they beat Kentucky, which is probably one of the five best teams in college basketball right now. And that doesn’t even include victories over second-tier tournament teams like Auburn, at Louisville, at Syracuse and at Florida State.

That is a WILD resume.

Still, we also can’t just erase what has happened the last two weeks since Zion Williamson got hurt. They are 4-2 overall, with a loss to Virginia Tech, when the Hokies were without their starting point guard (Justin Robinson). And it includes a near home loss to Wake Forest on Tuesday, the same Wake team that has lost to Houston Baptist, Richmond and Garner-Webb this season. This is clearly not the same team without Zion Williamson.

And it feels fair to ask: What if they lose at North Carolina this weekend? And what if they lose again early in the ACC Tournament, say to North Carolina again in the semifinals? That would three head-to-head losses with North Carolina, and a 5-4 record in their final nine games. Does that really sound like the resume of a No. 1 seed? Not to me.

That also doesn’t factor in another aspect: We have no idea what’s going to happen with Zion Williamson. I know that Coach K said that he expects him back for the ACC Tournament – but what if he doesn’t come back? At that point, the NCAA Selection Committee really must ask themselves: Do we really believe Zion will be back, and do we seed Duke appropriately? Or do we have to assume that Zion might not play in the NCAA Tournament?

(FYI: We spent a TON of time talking Zion Williamson conspiracy theories on the Aaron Torres Sports Podcast on Monday, and we discussed the very real possibility that Coach K is lying about Zion’s injury to protect Duke’s pursuit of a No. 1 seed. You can listen to the show by clicking here)

All of that is a long-winded way of me saying that if Duke wins at North Carolina this weekend they lock up a No. 1 seed. If they beat North Carolina in the ACC Tournament semifinals, they lock up a No. 1 seed.

But if they lose both? It’s going to put the committee in an interesting pickle come Selection Sunday.

Considering I just spent a ton of time talking about North Carolina’s scenarios relative to Duke’s, it feels kind of repetitive to go too deep on the Tar Heels here.

But what you need to know is this: The only way for Carolina to guarantee themselves a No. 1 seed is to win out – beat Duke this weekend and win the ACC Tournament. If they beat Duke, and lose in the ACC Tournament final to Virginia I think it’s possible they could get a No. 1. If they lose prior to the ACC finals, they will be a No. 2. If they lose to Duke this weekend, they will be a No. 2 seed as well.

Right now, the most interesting scenario is what if Carolina beats Duke this weekend and in the ACC Tournament, but then loses to Virginia in the final? At that point, the committee would have to ask themselves, what is more important: North Carolina’s three head-to-head wins against Duke? Or Duke’s overall body of work (assuming we know for sure Zion Williamson will be back for the NCAA Tournament)?

It will be fascinating to follow straight through Selection Sunday. But as I said, North Carolina does control their own destiny. Win out, and they will get a No. 1.

To me, Kentucky and Tennessee basically have the same path to a No. 1 seed. And it’s really pretty simple.

First off, each team must win this weekend. For Kentucky, that means beating Florida at home. And for the Vols, it means a win at Auburn. That’s the first step. Then, after LSU’s wild win at Florida on Wednesday night, it seems almost certain that LSU will get the No. 1 seed at the SEC Tournament (they close with Vanderbilt this weekend) and that Kentucky and Tennessee will play in the SEC Tournament semifinals.

Which brings me to the second part of this scenario.

If both teams win their game this weekend, and both teams win their opener in SEC Tourney play, then I believe that whoever wins that SEC Tournament grudge match gets the No. 1 seed. Yes, even if they lose to LSU in the final. Obviously if either team wins in the final, that clinches the No. 1 seed.

Now sure, there are other variables at play here. What if either Big Ten team in contention for a No. 1 seed (Michigan or Michigan State) wins out? Even then, I’m not sure the committee would give the nod to either over Kentucky or Tennessee.

Many of you are also probably wondering: What if LSU wins the SEC Tournament title? Wouldn’t they get a No. 1 seed over Tennessee and Kentucky? With all due respect to the season Will Wade’s team is having, I’m not sold they can climb up to a No. 1 seed – even if they win the SEC Tournament. Believe it or not, they have three Quad 2 losses (Kentucky and Tennessee have one combined) including a loss to the worst team in the Big 12 (Oklahoma State) and one of the worst teams in the SEC (Arkansas). Those losses to me, would outweigh the great wins they have in the committee’s mind.

By the way, I also think there’s an outside possibility that both Kentucky and Tennessee get No. 1 seeds, but that would take something truly crazy happening – like North Carolina and Duke both losing in the ACC Tournament, or Gonzaga losing in their conference tournament.

Therefore the bottom line is simple for both teams: Win this weekend and win in the SEC Tournament semifinals, and you’re headed to the land of No. 1 seed.

I already dove into LSU above, so I won’t dig too deep here. But I do believe that those bad losses (Arkansas at home, Oklahoma State on a neutral court) will be too much to overcome. Even if LSU wins the SEC Tournament.

LSU has had an incredible season and deserves all the acclaim they’re getting. And while I think they’d have an interesting case for a No. 1 seed if they win out, I ultimately think they’ll settle on the No. 2 or 3 seed line.

Michigan State did itself no favors by losing to Indiana last week – a loss that has all but eliminated them from serious No. 1 seed discussion. To their credit, the Spartans still have 10 Quad 1 wins (tied for most with Virginia) and could pick up more this weekend. But they also have two Quad 2 losses (a home loss to Indiana and at Illinois) and a season sweep at the hands of Indiana.

If the Spartans were to win out (a home win over Michigan this weekend and sweeping the Big Ten Tournament) then things would get interesting come Selection Sunday. But even then, I’m not sure it’s enough. I think they would need help somewhere, be it an upset in the SEC Tournament, or Duke and North Carolina both getting knocked out early in the ACC.

Expect Michigan State to settle in on the two-line come Selection Sunday.

So again, Michigan travels to Michigan State this weekend and the loser is obviously eliminated from No. 1 seed consideration. Considering that Michigan already lost to the Spartans at home, and considering that three of their losses have come on the road (including at Penn State, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten) it seems reasonable that Michigan might not even make it out of this weekend with hopes of getting a No. 1 seed.

But if they do win at Michigan State, it sets up a fascinating week for them at the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago. Right now, the Wolverines have one of the weaker overall resumes (8-4 in Quad 1 games) and 4-3 in Quad 1 road games, buuuuuuuut, a win at Michigan State would improve that resume, with SEVERAL opportunities to pick up Quad 1 wins at the Big Ten Tournament. Currently, there are a staggering seven teams in the Big Ten that would be considered Quad 1 wins on a neutral court, and there’s the possibility that Michigan could pick up three more Quad 1 victories in Chicago.

Ultimately, it feels a little far-fetched to me that Michigan will both win at Michigan State this weekend, and then sweep the Big Ten Tournament, but then again, stranger things have happened. Even then, Michigan would still simply be in the conversation for a No. 1 seed, along with the top SEC team (Tennessee or Kentucky) or the second ACC team behind Virginia (to their advantage, Michigan does have a head-to-head win over North Carolina from early in the season).

In the end, if you’re a Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina or Duke fan, you’re rooting for Michigan to lose this weekend. If they win out, it makes things interesting come Selection Sunday.

We are about to enter the final weekend of the college hoops season, and the Aaron Torres Sports Podcast has you ready to go — recapping another wild weekend in the sport of college basketball. Aaron is re-joined by his buddy Nick Coffey to discuss:

Kentucky-Tennessee Part II: The Cats and the Vols met again in Knoxville on Saturday, and this time it went in favor of the Vols. Aaron explains why he isn’t worried from Kentucky’s perspective and why the Cats need to move on to the final two games of the season. Also, why it was dumb to ever give up on the Vols when they lost two straight. Also, would Kentucky prefer the two-seed in Louisville with Duke as their No. 1? Or to be a No. 1 seed elsewhere?

Zion Williamson Conspiracy Theories — Aaron and Nick show their thoughts on the latest with Zion Williamson. Aaron is convinced that we won’t see Zion again until the NCAA Tournament, while Nick wonders if Zion is completely done. Is Coach K hiding the injury so it doesn’t impact Duke’s NCAA Tourney seeding?

College Basketball Weekend Recap: The guys wrap up by talking about the other big stories in college hoops. What is to make of the fight between Nevada and Utah State, and why does everyone still doubt Gonzaga after they wrapped up another dominant regular season?

It’s hard to believe that it was just one week ago that Zion Williamson’s foot burst through his shoe, he went down with a knee injury and the entire sports media world went into a frenzy.

For two days straight, Zion was the center of the sports world. Should he shut it down? Should he keep playing? It was all anyone was asking.

Since the initial injury we have gotten the answer to that question: Yes, Zion Williamson is expected to play college basketball again. Coach K has been adamant that the injury is day-to-day, and when Zion is fully healthy he will be back on the court.

But in the process of answering that question, we were forced to ask another question all together: If for some reason Zion Williamson can’t come back, can Duke win a national title without him?

Now three games into the “Life without Zion” experiment, it seems like we have a pretty clear answer: No, Duke can’t win a national championship without a fully healthy Zion Williamson. The Blue Devils are now 1-2 without him, and also nearly lost a game against Florida State in January when Zion sat the second half with an eye injury. Add it up, and it’s clear that Zion isn’t just that National Player of the Year, but the single most important player to his team in college basketball as well. Duke looks completely lost without him, a shell of the dominant juggernaut they are with him on the court.

Admittedly, part of that last paragraph seems like common sense. Some would say that it’s obvious that any team that loses the eventual No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft is going to struggle without him. Then again, how many No. 1 overall picks even impact wins and losses in college to begin with? Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons were both No. 1 picks and didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament. DeAndre Ayton was the No. 1 pick last year and didn’t make it out of the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Zion Williamson has more help than those guys. But he has also proven to be more valuable.

As a matter of fact, this injury proves just how valuable Zion really is, and just how expendable most other freshmen are in college basketball. Duke has two other guys who likely be selected in the Top 5 picks of the next NBA Draft (R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish) and another who will likely go in the first round (Tre Jones).

Duke was supposedly built to survive an injury like this. Instead, it has only heightened the importance of what Zion means to this team.

(By the way, remember when people were saying that Tre Jones was the most important player on this team? That might win the award for “Worst Take of the 2019 College Basketball Season.”).

Remember when people said that Tre Jones was Duke's most important player ???????

Yup, this injury shows just how important Zion is to this team, and also shows that his value goes well beyond big dunks and YouTube videos. Just watching Duke with and without him, it’s like night and day, and has unique skills that aren’t replaceable with the guys they have on this roster – again, a roster that includes at least three players who will be drafted in the NBA this season. Zion is Duke’s only real low-post scorer, a guy who – while he is certainly MORE than a low-post scorer – can pretty much just get you 10 or 15 points just by hanging around the rim and getting second and third chance rebounds and opportunities. He’s also by far Duke’s biggest defensive presence and rim protector.

Add it up, and it’s obvious just by watching Duke how much Williamson’s absence is felt. But the numbers back it up too.

On offense, Duke is averaging 85 points per game, good for fifth nationally. Not surprisingly, they aren’t as good without Zion, averaging just 73 points per game. That drop of 12 points per game without Zion would rank them around 170th nationally, a similar scoring output to what Virginia puts up this season. Ewwwwwwwwww.

More than just the raw numbers though, is the fact that Zion completely changes the way Duke plays. Of all the jarring stats surrounding Williamson this year, this is maybe the wildest one: He is shooting 75 percent on 2-point field goal attempts. SEVENTY-FIVE PERCENT!!! For comparison’s sake, Tennessee’s Grant Williams is shooting 60 percent from 2-point range. P.J. Washington – who has maybe been the best player in college basketball the last month – is shooting 55 percent on two point attempts. Zion is shooting 75 percent on those same shots! Just insane.

It also makes Zion’s absence that much more glaring, and again, impacts the way that Duke has played since he went down with injury. With Zion in the lineup, Duke takes an average of 42 two-point field goal attempts per game, and just 26 three-point attempts per contest. With Zion out however, they are taking just 31 two-point field goals per game, with an uptick to 30 three-pointers per game.

Read that again.

With Zion out, Duke is taking 11 fewer two-point attempts per game, and four more three-pointers. You don’t need to be John Wooden to know that when you’re taking fewer easy shots (especially when you’re making such a high percentage) and increasing the volume of difficult ones, it’s generally not going to work out well in your favor. Which is exactly what Duke has seen happen the last three games.

Yet as impactful as Zion is on the offensive end of the court, you could argue his impact is greater felt on defense. We all obviously know about his shot blocking abilities, which – as Virginia’s DeAndre Hunter found out – are otherworldly. But what folks probably don’t realize is that Zion also leads Duke with 2.2 steals per game as well, which is ahead of Tre Jones, who is considered one of the elite on-ball defenders in college basketball. With Zion in the lineup it’s not just a nightmare for opponents to try and score, but even run an offense. The Blue Devils have forced an average of 15 turnovers per game with Zion in the lineup. They have forced an average of just nine per game without him, including just six at Virginia Tech on Tuesday night. Did I mention that Virginia Tech was without its starting point guard?

Oh, and one more thing. Let’s not forget that Zion is by far Duke’s most prolific rebounder, ripping down nearly nine rebounds per game, including three offensive rebounds a contest. With him in the lineup, they have a +6.6 rebounding advantage, meaning that they are outrebounding opponents by an average of nearly seven per game per game. That rebound margin is down to zero without him. Yes, you read that correctly. Even with Marques Bolden, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish, Javin Delaurier etc., Duke has gotten the same number of rebounds as their opponents the last three games.

And that, in a nutshell, speaks to the value of Zion’s presence. Duke is forcing six fewer turnovers per game, and averaging six fewer rebounds per game without Zion Williamson – can you imagine how many extra possessions he creates? And can you imagine how much Duke is hurt without him?

It also proves beyond a reasonable doubt, that even in a sport where we hype up freshmen every single fall, Zion is the outlier of all outliers. Outside of Anthony Davis, maybe Lonzo Ball and a few others, it’s hard to think of many guys who completely altered a team’s entire season with their mere presence. For every 30 guys like R.J. Barrett, Romeo Langford, Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons– ones that come into college hoops with a lot of hype but don’t truly alter games and seasons – there is just one Zion Williamson or Anthony Davis. Players who truly alter their team’s entire season.

The good news for Duke is that by all accounts Zion will be back at some point this season.

We’ve got ourselves a MASSIVE Aaron Torres Sports Podcast. Aaron answers all the big questions heading into the final few weeks of the season, like, ‘Who will get No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament and where is the college basketball coaching carousel?’ ESPN’s Robbie Hummel also joins the show. Here is a rundown of what you need to know:

Who will get the No. 1 seeds? Rather than breaking down the results of this week’s games, Aaron takes a deep dive into the No. 1 seeds. He explains why Duke is in real danger of losing a No. 1, but does it matter? Also, why this weekend’s Tennessee-Kentucky game isn’t as important as you think. Plus, the surprise team that could steal a No. 1 if they win out.

ESPN’s Robbie Hummel: The college basketball analyst and former Purdue Boilermaker joins the program. He talks about what it’s like to be a player this time of year — does the grind of the schedule wear you down? Also, is there really a title contender in the Big Ten? And what’s the biggest story in his mind in the final few weeks of the regular season?

Coaching Carousel: After talking to people he trusts all over the country, Aaron gives you an update on what he is hearing from the coaching carousel. He explains why the UCLA job may be tougher to fill than people think, and is Arizona set to open up with Sean Miller in more hot water? Who would be the best candidates there? Then he discusses a seemingly inevitable departure at Texas A&M and the big name who could come in there, and is it time to start talking about Mike Anderson at Arkansas?

We are officially in the final two weeks of the college basketball regular season, which means two things. One, we’re all wondering : Where the hell did the season go? And two, every fan-base is trying to figure out what their team’s fate will come for Selection Sunday.

For some teams, they’re just fighting for bubble spots. Some know they will need to win their conference tournament to realistically make the NCAA Tournament. And for a select few, they are truly in position to capitalize on a season of success and get a No. 1 seed.

Especially with all the craziness that has happened since last week’s update.

Since that update oh boy have things changed, with Duke taking a second loss without Zion Williamson, Tennessee losing to LSU but bouncing back with a pseudo-miracle win at Ole Miss and Kentucky holding on for dear life against Arkansas.

Going into the final 10 days of the season, I believe there are eight teams that can realistically get No. 1 seeds. Here they are:

Before we get there, a quick reminder:

First, a few simple parameters before we get started

One, when I reference “Quad 1” and “Quad 2” wins and losses below, those are all according to the NCAA’s new “NET” rankings which will help put together the field of 68 and seed those teams. Games, wins and losses are broken up into “Quads” with the biggest games, against the best teams falling into “Quad 1” and so on so forth. The worst wins, against the worst teams in college basketball, fall into “Quad 4.”

Not surprisingly, the more Quad 1 wins and fewer Quad 1 losses you have, the better your resume will look.

Here is how the Quads break down, per the NET rankings:

Quadrant 1: Home Game 1-30; Neutral Site 1-50; Away Game 1-75

Quadrant 2: Home Game 31-75; Neutral Site 51-100; Away Game 76-135

Quadrant 3: Home Game 76-160; Neutral Site 101-200; Away Game 136-240

Quadrant 4: Home Game 161-plus; Neutral Site 201-plus; Away Game 241-plus