Over the past five mid-terms, there have been more wave elections (1994, 2006, 2010) than elections with limited swing (1998, 2002). We thought it would be enlightening to look at the national House exit polls from those three wave elections for similarities and differences.

The 2010 national exit polls show an electorate that has changed little in partisan make-up, but that has shifted more conservative since 2006. Compared to the 1994 electorate, the 2010 electorate is a net five points more Republican and a net twelve points more conservative to moderate/liberal.

In 1994, the Democrats had a five point partisan identification advantage (34% Republican/39% Democratic). This margin had shrunk to two points in 2006 (36% GOP/38% Dem) and was dead even at 36% GOP/36% Dem on Election Day 2010.

In each wave year, partisans have continued to vote strongly for their respective parties, while the major shifts are seen among Independents. In the 1994 Republican wave, Independents (26% of the electorate) voted 55% GOP-45% Dem in races for the U.S. House of Representatives. This was reversed in 2006, when Independents (again 26% of the electorate) voted 39% GOP-57% Dem. This year, Independents (now 28% of the electorate) voted 55% GOP-39% Dem. The swing of Independents towards the Republicans is a continuation of what was seen in the Virginia and New Jersey Governor campaigns of 2009, as well as the Massachusetts Senate special election in early 2010.

One of the biggest shifts in the electorate has been in ideology. In 2010, conservatives made up a plurality of the electorate (41%), while moderates made up 39%, and liberals 20%. In both 1994 and 2006, moderates made up 47% of the electorate, while conservatives made up 35% of the electorate in 1994 and just 32% in 2006.

This up-tick in the number of conservative voters is amplified by a solidifying to vote for Republican candidates. In both 1994 and 2006, conservatives voted for the Republican candidates for U.S. House by 58 points. However, in 2010 conservatives voted for Republicans 84% GOP-14% Dem, a margin of 70 points – twelve points higher than in the wave years of 1994 and 2006.

The suburbs are another area where Republicans made serious improvement in 2010. Republicans won the suburbs 55% GOP-42% Dem, surpassing 1994 levels of 54% GOP-46% Dem and performing better among suburban voters than Democrats did in their wave election year of 2006 (48% GOP-50% Dem).

Republican support also coalesced among seniors in 2010. Republican House candidates won seniors by 18 points in 2010 (58% GOP-40% Dem), while these voters were polarized in 2006 (49% GOP-49% Dem). Seniors also grew as a portion of the electorate – from 19% in 2006 to 23% in 2010.

Little has changed in the ethnic makeup of the electorate since 2006, when whites made up 79% of the electorate, while African Americans were 10%, and Latinos 8%. The 2010 electorate was 78% white, 10% African American, and 8% Latino. Latinos have increased their portion of the electorate by five percent (5%) since 1994, while African Americans have not grown as a portion of the electorate since 1994, representing 10% of the electorate in 1994, 2006, and 2010.

By ethnicity, Republicans made nearly all of their gains from 2006 and surpassed 1994 levels among whites, as whites broke 60% GOP-38% Dem in 2010, compared to 51% GOP-47% Dem in 2006 and 56% GOP-44% Dem in 1994. African Americans have supported the Democratic candidate at nearly identical levels across all three years – 9% GOP-90% Dem in 2010, 10% GOP-89% Dem in 2006, and 11% GOP-89% Dem in 1994. Latinos had just a slight bump in Republican support over 2006, as they voted 33% GOP-65% Dem in 2010, compared to 30% GOP-69% Dem in 2006, a net seven point change.

Public Opinion Strategies helped us to clarify what we wanted to learn and then conducted research and analysis that shed light even beyond the questions we set out to ask. They were very receptive to our suggestions, responsive to our queries, and flexible when we needed them to be.

Public Opinion Strategies has consistently offered unparalleled advice and spot-on polling that has shaped how and where we spent money and deploy key resources. Additionally, they have always been an excellent steward of limited campaign resources, ensuring we spend wisely and not a dollar more than necessary in order to get the information we need.

Robert Blizzard and Public Opinion Strategies did a great job for us throughout our successful campaign for Congress. Robert gave us accurate data, spot on analysis, and professional advice, all of which were essential to our victory.

Public Opinion Strategies is one of our go-to pollsters when it comes to testing public support for bond ballot measures and other initiative proposals. They are available to provide ongoing consultation with regard to crafting of ballot questions, public outreach messaging, and related efforts.

ACLI has worked with Public Opinion Strategies for decades, through several tough industry battles—often ones in which public opinion does not naturally fall on the side of insurers. Yet Bill and his team consistently provide invaluable strategic advice by refining our messages and helping us frame our issues in a way that makes them understandable and persuasive.

The data from Public Opinion Strategies provided important insight and informed our public awareness campaign. We sincerely appreciate their professionalism and expertise in this arena.

Nicole McCleskey and the team at Public Opinion Strategies have been invaluable to me, both during my campaigns and as Governor of the State of New Mexico. It’s not just the accuracy of their numbers, but guiding the overall strategy that makes them so valuable.

Public Opinion Strategies has been a part of our team in Missouri for more than a decade. With their data and guidance, Republicans here were able to attain a majority in the House in 2002 for the first time in fifty years, and we have been able to grow that majority to the point that we now have a record, veto-proof majority.

In my tenure at two leading business associations, facing huge and complex consumer issues, I have benefitted enormously from the objective advisory skills of Bill and his team. They do their homework, they are rigorous, dispassionate and thoughtful. Turning questions into answers is a clever tag, but it’s also an apt description of the professional talents of the firm.

I consider Public Opinion Strategies to be a part of our team. That is the way we have always worked. They have helped us to understand our needs and fashioned research solutions to meet those needs. They have helped us to meet killer deadlines by being flexible, executing rapidly, and insuring quality. Teamwork is the best way to describe it.

Accuracy, speed, and deep knowledge of key issues and public sentiment are the hallmarks of quality opinion research, and on these measures Public Opinion Strategies consistently delivers. I have had the pleasure of working with Public Opinion Strategies for more than 15 years on dozens of issues, and they are undoubtedly the gold standard.

Public Opinion Strategies’ track record of success and wealth of experience in political campaigns and issue advocacy are why they are one of the most trusted and well respected public opinion firms in Washington, D.C. Their insights and perspectives have helped to inform a wide array of public affairs activities across multiple industries.