In Karnataka, good news for India’s GOP

While the CNN-IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker survey predicts an overall loss of vote share for the Congress and its allies nationally, the Congress’s vote share in Karnataka is estimated to go up by 9 per cent, compared to the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. File photo

Discarded choices. Photo: K Gopinathan

All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by respondents through a secret dummy ballot. These raw figures have been adjusted by the CSDS team for the known patterns of under-reporting for independents and very small parties and over-reporting for the ruling party/alliance to arrive at the vote share estimates presented here. Undecided voters are those who did not disclose their vote preference. They have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share.

While the survey predicts an overall loss of vote share for the Congress and its allies nationally “if the Lok Sabha election is held tomorrow,” the Congress’s vote share in Karnataka is estimated to go up by nine per cent, compared to the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. This comes as no surprise considering that the results of the Karnataka Assembly elections earlier this year brought the Congress to power with a clear mandate, with 121 seats in an Assembly of 224.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (Secular) were tied at a distant second with 40 seats each.

Congress vote share

The Congress vote share predicted by the survey for the coming Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka is, in fact, a vast improvement over even the 2013 Assembly results. While the vote share of the Congress was 36.55 per ent in the Assembly elections, the estimated vote share for the coming polls is pegged at an impressive 47 per cent.

Karnataka’s current political landscape is vastly different from what it was during the 2009 Lok Sabha that saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning 19 of the 28 Parliamentary constituencies in the State. The Congress won six seats and the Janata Dal (Secular) three. Karnataka’s share in the total number of seats secured by the BJP was more than that of Gujarat. It was in the 2009 Lok Sabha poll that the BJP, for the first time in the electoral history of Karnataka, got a bigger share of the vote (41 per cent) than the Congress (37 per cent).

Post-2009, an anti-incumbency wave swept the State as BJP MLAs and ministers were caught in a series of scandals. The party itself was bogged down by infighting that led to a three-way split. Eventually, the BJP sank in the 2013 Assembly elections. Its vote share came down by nearly 14 percentage points compared to the 2008 elections. Seen against the 2009 Lok Sabha poll, the loss was a whopping 21 percentage points.

The Hindu-CNN-IBN Election Tracker Survey conducted by Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi in June, foresees a 22 percentage point loss to the BJP when compared to 2009 Lok Sabha election, which suggests that the party’s prospects continue to be on the wane.

An important thing to note, however, is that the CSDS survey was conducted soon after the Congress Government, led by Mr. Siddaramaiah, was sworn in on May 13. This is just the start of what is called the “honeymoon period” of a newly-sworn in government and too soon for any disenchantment to set in.

Right moves

On his part, Mr. Siddaramaiah has made all the right moves within the first few days of being sworn in — announcing rice at Re 1 for Below Poverty Line families and waiving off loans of Dalits and Other Backward Classes. Though there have been fairly audible voices from within the old Congress ranks against the choice of Mr. Siddaramaiah for chief minister — considering his image as a man of the old Janata Parivar — there is no overt dissidence in the ranks. If anything, his image as not being a dyed-in-the-wool Congressman has only earned him adjectives like “pro-people” and “Socialist.” It is widely believed that he is “safe” at least until the Lok Sabha polls.

The CSDS survey among elected MLAs indicates that the preference for Chief Minister was almost equally poised between Mr. Siddaramaiah and Union Minister [for Railways] Mallikarjun Kharge. Interestingly, more Dalits have voted in favour of the former, though Mr. Kharge was seen as potentially the first Dalit chief minister of Karnataka if the high command had chosen to anoint him. The decision to deny ministerial berths to some senior Congressmen is seen by a significant number as the “right thing.”

On Yeddyurappa

The Opposition, meanwhile, is yet to get its act together in Karnataka. However, there is the prospect of the former Chief Minister, B.S. Yeddyurappa, returning to the BJP. It is not yet clear who is to give in, and by how much, in the negotiations between the party central leadership and Mr. Yeddyurappa. Even as the “will-he-won’t-he?” situation prevails, Mr. Yeddyurappa, the chief of the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP), has been talking of forging a non-Congress “alliance” before the Lok Sabha poll. Curiously, he also admitted to being in talks with the BJP central leadership. The expected arrival of the Gujarat Chief Minister and campaign committee head, Narendra Modi, in Karnataka in the coming month is expected to brighten the chances of Mr. Yeddyurappa’s return to the BJP. But the Gujarat Chief Minister’s campaign during the Assembly polls made little or no impact, and his visit would not make any difference to the electoral outcome.

Your assessment for karnataka may seem to be true. the early days of congress rule seem good. Mostly congress will end up getting easily 15-
16 seats.

from:
raj

Posted on: Jul 25, 2013 at 01:17 IST

I "think" National media and other people doesn't understand the Karnataka electorate. The reason, why Congress was voted to power is because of the non-performance of BJP. Karnataka people are more aware in terms of choosing the Parties. They tend to vote according to local issues in Assembly elections and national issues in Lok sabha elections. It will be wrong to assume the same pattern for both Assembly and Lok sabha elections. Also Modi campaign during Assembly elections were also towards more of National issues rather than Local issues. If Modi does aggressive campaigning in Karnataka and BJP chooses right candidates it will retain its share of 19 seats. Ofcourse, inclusion of Yediyurappa will certainly benefit BJP owing to non-splitting of Lingayat votes which decides the outcome in most of the Seats.

from:
Raju

Posted on: Jul 24, 2013 at 15:47 IST

I agree with your seat projection of 18 - 22 Lok Sabha seats for congress in Karnataka and will not agree with the vote share increase by 9%. If congress gets 47% vote share then congress will sweep as Dr.Prarmeshwar, KPCC President, says. If congress overtake 40% vote share that itself good enough for the above 18 - 22 seats if KJP is not join with BJP. In the case of KJP joins or merge with BJP, Congress may get about 17 MP seats and BJP may get 7 MP seats while JDS may get 4 MP seats and there may be 10% of seats variation. Region-wise projection of mine is as INC/BJP/JDS

The BJP leaders and even Yeduriappa cry from roof tops that the combined vote share of BJP, KJP and BSR Congress is very close to the Congress vote share. This is just travesty of logic. Firstly, even after combining the vote share of all these parties, the Congress was still ahead by a healthy 6% and secondly how can anybody with even some semblance of sense say that these parties basically split the votes of BJP, when the fact is they just harvested the anti-incumbency vote targeting the ruling BJP then. Their votes were secured by basically speaking against the then Government. To now combine those vote shares and claim this as BJP's strength in the State is itself a muddle of facts. People should have taken leave of their brains to speak in this fashion.

from:
Ravi

Posted on: Jul 24, 2013 at 11:40 IST

Many BJP supporters might want everyone to believe that Karnataka voted for Congress because of Yeddy slipt. But that is not true. Karnataka dared to try BJP for better governance, but all that BJP could give was bad governance with extreme corruption. So much that even normal day to day administration almost came to a halt with bureaucrats busy acting as agents collecting corruption money for the ministers. Yeddy split happened while all these were affecting people, and that split was also for and by the corrupt. Karnataka voters decided that BJP was worse, Congress had issues of corruption etc., but at least they never dumped administration for corruption! That greed of BJP is what led to their downfall, not Yeddy's split!!

from:
Girish

Posted on: Jul 24, 2013 at 11:29 IST

If only 4 % voters could say categorically that congress not corrupt still many hypocritically including enlightened media support it.where n why inhibition then,for bjp to allow Yeddi back into party?Reunion shall be a game changer altogether.BJP must indulge into a cut throat political game to survive as purity may not be virtue in today's India.

from:
Upadhyaya BR

Posted on: Jul 24, 2013 at 09:28 IST

Your assessment in KA is based on the current vote share of assembly election which is going to be completely incorrect for LS. By the way, we people in KA know a lot of difference between local needs and national needs. KA voted for corrupt CONgee due to Yeddy split, but for the LS, it will vote for BJP. BJP will get around 12-15 and CONgee might end up with 6-8 along with JDs with 6-8 and KJP 2-3. If KJP merges with BJP then BJP number will increase to 15-18