Cleveland Browns Q&A with Danny Tuccitto of Football Outsiders

So, I was cleaning some fingerling potatoes a while back, and noticed that this particular one looked like Admiral Ackbar from Star Wars. So I got a Sharpie out and left a message for my son. Because that’s what odd moms do when confronted with Star Wars character looking root vegetables.

The Texans are about an 11 point favorite for this game against the Browns, and many fans worry that this is a trap game. I don’t believe in traps in the Every Given Sunday NFL. Texans fans should know better than most the mischief of what bad teams can do to good teams–pretty much all the victories the Texans got in their early years were a matter of scrap, junk, keep it close to win it in the 4th quarter games.

Each week, I try to do a Q&A with someone who knows the opposing team much better than I do, to make the game more enjoyable to watch because you know more about the opponent. Alas, I don’t know any Browns fans, much less ones who take the time to write semi-intelligent stuff on the interwebs.

Fortunately, I know Danny Tuccitto (@FO_DTuccitto), an assistant editor of Football Outsiders who is focusing extra attention on the AFC North this year because he will be writing about it for next year’s Football Outsider’s Almanac. As a part of his FO writing, he’s write the fantasy matchups column that comes out every Thursday on ESPN Insider. He’s a 49ers fan and statistics lover by background, and was known for his very good numbers-focused writing for the SB Nation blog, Niners Nation. I was familiar with his work from there because some of the numbers relevant to what I was interested in came up in Google searches. Sadly for him, he believes his departure from Niners Nation has led to the 49ers good performance this year. Given my own personal jinx fears, who am I to judge him for his irrational beliefs?

Here’s this week’s Q&A. I hope you enjoy it.

A confession. Even as a diehard NFL fan, I barely knew that Pat Schumur was coach of the Browns. Explain what you can about how the 2011 Browns team is different/same as previous years?

“In one sentence, it’s this: Cleveland made wholesale changes in the coaching staff, but left their roster essentially unchanged. In a few more sentences, the differences between this year’s Browns and last year’s Browns have to do with the new schemes they’re running on both offense and defense. With the hiring of Shurmur, Cleveland transitioned from more of a Belichick-esque spread-happy, gimmicky offense under former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to more of a traditional, dink-and-dunk West Coast offense under Shurmur. On defense, the team also moved away from their recent penchant for Patriots duplication by switching from a base 3-4 under Eric Mangini to a base 4-3 under new defensive coordinator Dick Jauron.”
Any key Browns injuries?

“Not really. It’s actually remarkable how healthy Cleveland’s been so far this season outside of center Alex Mack’s appendectomy, cornerback Joe Haden’s one-game absence, and the maybe-it’s-a-hamstring-maybe-it’s-a-contract-dispute “injury” that’s caused Peyton Hillis to miss four of their past five games. I say this because, along with the Colts, the Browns have been the most injured team in the league over the past five seasons, especially on defense: the starters on that unit have lost over 175 games to injury during that span. This week, it’s all systems go, with Haden, Hillis and Mack expected to play, as well as the recently concussed duo of wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi and outside linebacker Scott Fujita.” (Steph note: Peyton Hillis may have suffered another setback with his hamstring, limping off the field during Friday’s practice).

What do you think are the strengths of this Browns’ team?

“Well, from a statistical perspective, Cleveland is especially strong in several categories of particular interest to Texans fans. Namely, we have their run defense ranked ninth-most efficient overall, and fourth in the red zone. We also have their pass defense ranked sixth on third down, and ninth in terms of rushing the quarterback. I think if you look at what Houston does on offense, those defensive strengths might pose some problems.

If we move outside the realm of the stats nerd, there are basically five players who make the Browns tick. On offense, it’s Hillis, Mack, and Colt McCoy. All three have shown that they’re talented enough to be above-average performers in the NFL, and their offense doesn’t seem to function when they’re not performing at that level (for whatever reason). On defense, the studs are middle linebacker D’Qwell Jackson, who won Defensive Player of the Month for September, and the aforementioned Haden. Although the other starting cornerback, Sheldon Brown, isn’t bad, Haden is by far the best member of their secondary.”
And problems the Browns are experiencing?

“Oh, they’re experiencing plenty of problems, mostly on offense. It’s definitely a situation where the statistics match what you see on film. First and foremost, I think they’ve really missed Hillis in the running game. Before getting injured last week against San Francisco, Hillis’ highly touted backup, Montario Hardesty looked like Velma from Scooby Doo without her glasses. The offensive line consistently opened up the holes and cutback lanes designed by their zone blocking scheme, but Hardesty flat-out ignored them, turning what should have been big gains into two- or three-yard carries. This was especially the case in Cleveland’s insomnia-curing game against Seattle, where even an average running back could have led Cleveland’s offense to more than six points.

Our advanced offensive line stats bear this out. Specifically, they’re ranked fifth in stuffed rate, which is simply the percentage of running back carries that result in zero or negative yardage. In other words, the offensive line doesn’t appear to be blowing their run blocks outright. Furthermore, Cleveland ranks dead last in both second-level yards per carry and open-field yards per carry. As these stats measure running performance five yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage, they reinforce the notion that the Browns’ running backs — especially Hardesty — have been particularly atrocious at turning short runs into long runs once they get past the defensive line.

With that said, the offensive line isn’t entirely free of blame. I’ve seen a non-trivial number of running plays in which various linemen are standing around blocking nobody because they failed to execute their zone blocks. On other plays, their linemen have either peeled off too late for second-level blocks on linebackers, or have held double-team blocks on defensive linemen for no reason, leaving the linebackers unblocked altogether. This is pretty surprising because it’s essentially the same line that executed Daboll’s zone-blocked running plays with great success last season. All the more reason why I think it’s been more Hardesty’s fault.

In terms of Cleveland’s pass offense, I’m really stumped as to what the issue is. I think at least some part of it is their transition to the West Coast offense. However, you’d think that a — shall we say — pass-velocity-challenged quarterback like McCoy would excel at dinking and dunking. The same could also be said for their starting receivers, Massaquoi and Greg Little, whose skill sets are more of the possession variety, and their depth at tight end. Basically, it seems like their passing game talent is perfect for the West Coast offense, but yet Cleveland is in the bottom half of the league according to our pass efficiency metric.

If you put a gun to my head — please don’t — I’d say that the transition’s to blame because they’re still not even running 50 percent of what you’d identify as a West Coast offense so far this season. Specifically, they line up in singleback sets a lot, and their underneath wide receiver routes break toward the sideline much more often than toward the middle of the field. If you watch their film, you constantly see quick outs, digs, and comebacks, which don’t lend themselves to the yards after catch that’s prototypical of the West Coast offense.”

What do you think is the best way to beat the Browns?

“From an offensive perspective, there’s basically three ways to have success against the Browns’ defense: (1) hope Haden doesn’t play; (2) run the football ala Cincinnati, Tennessee, Oakland, and San Francisco; and (3) throw to the tight end. If you look at those four losses, you see their opponents running the ball productively. At Football Outsiders, we’re allergic to the “establish the run” mantra because teams generally run because they’re winning the game — they don’t win the game because they’re running. However, much of the running success that teams have had in Cleveland’s losses have come during the first half, which doesn’t include the clock-killing runs on which our disdain for that mantra is based.

Also, Owen Daniels needs to be a big part of the Texans’ game plan this week, given that the Browns’ pass defense is currently the third-worst in the league against the tight end according to our efficiency stats. Obviously, this is especially true if Andre Johnson misses yet another game. If it ends up where Jacoby Jones is starting at flanker in place of Johnson, he won’t be seeing much daylight against Haden. Therefore, Houston’s passing game is going to need to feature Daniels to be successful. (Steph note: Not just Daniels, but also look out for TD vulture TE Joel Dreessen, and if back more fully from his pec injury, Gary Kubiak has said that he wants to get TE/FB/Athlete/Norse hammer-wielding god James Casey back into the game plan).

On defense, Cleveland’s opponents have been able to hit the quinella of stopping both the run and the pass with base personnel. Therefore, the way to beat the Browns from a defensive perspective is to heed the old political saw, “When your opponent is drowning, throw him an anvil.” In other words, play your base defense, don’t do anything exotic, and let Cleveland’s offense beat themselves. Of course, with Wade Phillips coordinating the defense, this might be easier said than done.”

Who are some Browns players that Texans fans may not know about who could have an impact on the game, positively or negatively?

“This is especially the case if Andre Johnson is somehow able to play on Sunday, but, regardless of whether he does or not, Haden is the guy everyone outside of Cleveland should know about. In only his second year, Haden has emerged as a shutdown corner, only slightly behind the likes of Darrelle Revis, Nnamdi Asomugha, and Champ Bailey. Last season, Haden started out as Cleveland’s nickel cornerback, and then took the starting left cornerback spot away from Eric Wright midway through the schedule. He finished 2010 with six interceptions. This season, he’s continued his stellar play: Cleveland’s pass defense is ranked fourth in efficiency against No. 1 wide receivers thanks primarily to Haden.

He’s even being used more and more like Revis, Bailey, and pre-Eagles Asomugha, whereby he shadows the opponents’ top wideout no matter where he lines up in the formation. This was no more evident than in the Browns last-second win over the Dolphins. Playing exclusively in this lockdown role, Haden limited Brandon Marshall to only four catches for 43 yards. As I said earlier, Jones is in for a quiet day if he starts in place of Johnson, so the Texans will need to pick on someone else — preferably the safety or linebacker covering Daniels.”

Thanks for the Q & A.

Once again I would like to thank Danny for this very good Q&A. If you have any questions for him, contact him via his Twitter.

So, the Texans face another game where the opponents defense is better than their offense. In basic terms, the Texans offense can’t bail out the opposing team by turning over the ball and giving them short fields and easy scores. Also, yet another challenge for the run defense. Can they stop the run enough to get a lead that makes the Browns give up on the run?

The following I found on Twitter strikes me as interesting:

Odd. A defensive phenomenon perhaps? The Saints have the most offensive snaps which would seem to make sense. But the Browns 2nd?

Browns-Texans by the Numbers.

I’ve been doing this each week this particular season, and will continue to do so because I find it interesting to keep track of what the Texans are doing, and how it relates to their current opponent. I’m not saying that numbers are the be all, end all, play the game, or that matchups aren’t important, but numbers can sometimes give a feel of what the upcoming game might have in store:

Quite a disparity between these numbers. I think it comes from a couple of factors: 1. The FO stats focus on strength of opponent and general NFL stats do not. 2. Game situations. For example, the Texans run a lot with many men in the box when they are ahead in games and trying to close them out. That may increase the total rush yards, but depress the efficiency of each play. They aren’t having to throw from behind a lot this season.

Never look back unless youre planning to go that way. – Henry David Thoreau

Probably the most germane comment for a Texans blog ever left by any spam commenter. I prefer the version of this phrase from the old school movie, Gumball Rally:

Do Houston professional football fans really want to think too much of the past? No. I think of memories like having a library in your head. If you need to refer to a book, well then, put it on your nightstand. Otherwise, it should stay on the shelf, existing but not making a mess of things.

This blog post is a timely one as well, as the weather in Houston is a bit chilly today and having a jacket, Moncler or otherwise is handy.

On gameday, the temps will be warmer and the forecast is right on the borderline of whether the Texans choose to open the roof or not, at around 79. The Texans shut the roof when it is warmer than that because their studies have shown inside the stadium it is even hotter than the outside temps. There’s also a slight chance of rain on Sunday, but because we need the rain, it won’t happen.

I think if they can, the Texans will want to have the roof open for this game. This Sunday’s game is themed “Salute to the Military.” In the past, they’ve had planes fly overhead during the National Anthem and sometimes paratroopers land in the stadium. So if it is a close call with the temperatures, like it has been in the past for SttM day, I think they likely will have the roof open.

Your Predictions for this Game?

Lots of info here. Your turn to comment on it. If you don’t have any thoughts on the game, leave your favorite semi-relevant quote.