POLITICO London Playbook, presented by BP: Party at the park — May meets Merkel — Tory tips

THE AMBASSADOR’S RECEPTION: Woody Johnson and family threw a glitzy welcome party last night to mark their official arrival at Winfield House. The new U.S. Ambassador assured guests at the Regent’s Park mansion his old friend Donald Trump is a “man of action,” while Johnson’s wife Suzanne revealed she received well wishes from the First Lady by phone that same afternoon. The Johnsons’ young sons Brick — yes, Brick — and Jack were also in attendance. Guests drank Domaine Carneros Brut 2011, a sparkling Californian white.

DRIVING THE DAY

MAY V MUTTI: Theresa May will hold crunch talks with Angela Merkel this morning as Britain’s push for a Brexit breakthrough continues. The prime minister will meet the re-elected German Chancellor in the margins of an informal EU summit in Estonia shortly before 9.30 a.m. U.K. time. The PM will press the case for trade talks to begin following the concessions offered in her Florence speech one week ago. It follows May’s face-to-face meetings with EU Council President Donald Tusk and Irish PM Leo Varadkar at Downing Street earlier this week.

Not on the menu: Last night’s informal dinner in Tallinn between the 28 EU leaders was “definitely not Brexity” a U.K. official told Playbook. Tusk had already made clear to those present that Brexit should not be discussed before the next EU Council summit in October. A table plan leaked to POLITICO shows May spent the dinner sandwiched between Polish PM Beata Szydło and Portuguese PM António Costa, with Merkel far away across the room. Tusk posted some pics.

About that breakthrough: The dinner followed the conclusion of another week of intensive Brexit talks in Brussels. POLITICO’s Brexit expert Charlie Cooper and Chief Brussels Correspondent David M. Herszenhorn have takeaways. While the mood music between the two sides is improving, there has been no major breakthrough as yet.

What next:Bruno Waterfield at the Times says the EU is expecting May to make further concessions on the Brexit divorce bill and the role of the ECJ once the Tory conference in Manchester is out the way. He says EU officials believe May will agree a £40 billion payment next month to kick-start trade talks. Harry Cole and Roddy Thomson in the Sun agree relations have “begun to thaw” and say EU leaders will accept a two-year Brexit transition phase while expanding chief negotiator Michel Barnier’s powers to “scope out” future trade deals. Cole also posted thoughts here.

Meanwhile in Strasbourg: MEPs will vote next week on a draft resolution agreed by European Parliament chiefs which recommends the decision on trade talks be postponed beyond October. POLITICO’s Maïa de la Baume writes that Parliament is “ready to play the bad cop” in the talks and “disrupt negotiations” if the British side “doesn’t satisfy their demands.” The Independent’s Jon Stone reports the Parliament will recommend Northern Ireland stays inside the single market and customs union to ensure there is no “hard border” across Ireland.

Also in Estonia: Before her crucial bilat with Merkel, May will join French President Emmanuel Macron, and Estonian PM Jüri Ratas on a visit to the Tapa military base, where 800 British troops are stationed as part of a NATO battlegroup. In comments released overnight May sought to curry favor by stressing Britain’s military support in Europe is “unconditional.”

The IT crowd: The main business in Estonia today is actually a “digital summit” where EU leaders will discuss the bloc’s long-term strategy for the online revolution, encouraged by their Baltic hosts who have led the way with electronic public services.

PLANET TORY

MANCHESTER, UNITED? May will barely have time to catch breath before heading on to the Conservative Party conference in Manchester this weekend. The PM’s first engagement will be the traditional Marr Show interview on Sunday morning. In two scene-setting interviews last night she told former leader Lord Howard in The House magazine that the Tories must “make the case for free markets all over again,” and BBC London that Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan was “putting jobs at risk” by banning Uber.

The backdrop: But two serious Tory rebellions are rumbling over policy flash points in the coming weeks. Chris Hope in the Telegraph reveals 12 Tory MPs have written to Work and Pensions Minister David Gauke demanding the big roll-out of Universal Credit — due to start next week — should be paused. Charities fear thousands of claimants will be pushed into poverty due to delays in receiving their first payments. Meanwhile the ‘i’ splashes on a motion signed by 76 Tory MPs urging May to keep her manifesto promise to cap energy bills.

Waiting in the wings: A new Times/YouGov poll of Tory party members shows Boris Johnson is back out in front as the favorite to succeed May following his notorious 4,000-word Brexit intervention. Johnson leads the pack with 23 percent of the grassroots’ support, ahead of Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson on 19 percent and Jacob Rees-Mogg on 17 percent.

Tip sheet: What does May need to do to avoid a meltdown in Manchester? David Cameron’s former Downing Street spinner Giles Kenningham — now running PR consultancy Trafalgar Strategy — offers the PM some free advice, via Playbook:

— Keep it moving: “No. 10 needs to keep the news agenda moving at a relentless pace, so that if something unexpected happens they can quickly change the conversation. A single story a day will not sustain the news cycle. They need to keep the lobby occupied and the narrative focused on policy, not personnel.”

— Florence: “Whether by design or default, the pre-briefing given so far in advance of the Florence speech was damaging to No. 10. It fueled days of endless destabilizing speculation, meaning Downing Street lost control of the story and Boris hijacked the agenda in the run-up to the speech. They will want to avoid any repeats in Manchester.”

— Speech: “May has two audiences to please, the party faithful and the public — no mean feat. We used to have a practise room in the conference hotel, complete with a lectern, where Cameron would practise his speech on camera. Afterwards he would always ‘decompress’ with a cold pint of Guinness.”

— Stop the doorsteps: “The layout of the Manchester conference center is a PR nightmare. The huge concourse between the hotel and conference hotel is manna from heaven for TV crews looking to doorstep unsuspecting cabinet ministers. Special advisers will be under strict instruction not to let their ministers fall foul of Channel 4’s Michael Crick.”

More advice: May would have increased her majority in June if the Tories had won the same level of support from ethnic minority voters as the public as a whole, a new report says today. The British Future think-tank calculates that closing the gap in ethnic minority support would have boosted Tory support by 600,000 votes and given the party 28 more MPs.

And then there’s this: Lord Ashcroft’s new book on why the Tories under-performed at the June election, “The Lost Majority,” is published today by Biteback.

What Tories worry about:This new report by the Legatum Institute, which warns the Tories that voters now overwhelmingly support Labour’s left-wing policy platform. Sam Coates has a write-up for the Times here.

Conference football: The Lobby XI will take on the Tories at Manchester City’s training complex in the traditional conference match on Sunday morning. But they will be without their star player, Sky News’s Ramzi Bedj-Bedj, who scored twice in last week’s 6-0 demolition of Labour. For the Tories the big question will be whether key defender Gavin Barwell turns out after last year’s horror own goal. Barwell may have other things on his mind, having been appointed Downing Street chief of staff in June.

MEANWHILE IN TORQUAY

WATERS BREAKING? UKIP holds its own annual conference in Torquay today, with the party’s new leader to be unveiled at 5.15 p.m. The favorite to win remains anti-Islam campaigner Anne-Marie Waters, previously known for founding “Sharia Watch UK.” Senior UKIP figures tell the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford today that her victory would mean the end of UKIP. Nigel Farage is understood to be ready to launch a new party next week if Waters is elected.

Also addressing conference: A senior member of German far-right party Alternative für Deutschland.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

AMBASSADORS’ WARNING: A group of former U.K. Ambassadors to Washington have issued a joint warning about the danger Donald Trump could pose to the special relationship. Huff Post interviewed three past holders of the post, who all warned Trump’s erratic nature could spell bad news for Britain.

LAGARDE LECTURE: IMF chief Christine Lagarde is the keynote speaker on day two of the Bank of England’s anniversary conference.

ICYMI LAST NIGHT

BBC Question Time: Playbook gritted its teeth through one of the most partisan Question Times for some time. The first section consisted of people either slagging off or heaping praise on Jeremy Corbyn, while half the audience cheered and half booed. “Jeremy Corbyn is one of the most popular politicians in this country and has been for many years,” Labour chairman Ian Lavery told the crowd. Culture Secretary Karen Bradley put up a fierce defense of her own leader, insisting Theresa May will stay and fight the next election. “She is a resilient woman who is determined to get on, and gets the job done,” Bradley said.

Best moment: Props to comedian Ayesha Hazarika for calling out the “bully” in the audience who kept trying to shout her down.

OPRAH’S STAR: Oprah Winfrey is the Democrats’ best hope to beat Donald Trump in 2020, the New York Post’s John Podhoretz predicts.

HONEST, ABE? Is Japanese PM Shinzō Abe about to “do a Theresa May” after calling a snap general election for next month, Cambridge academic John Nilsson-Wright asks in Prospect.

COMING THIS WEEKEND

SATURDAY: Day Two of the UKIP conference in Torquay. The new leader will give the closing speech on Saturday afternoon.

SUNDAY: First day of the Conservative Party conference in Manchester, with speeches from party chairman Sir Patrick McLoughlin, First Secretary of State Damian Green, Education Secretary Justine Greening, Communities Secretary Sajid Javid, Scottish Conservative Party leader Ruth Davidson and Northern Ireland Secretary James Brokenshire … Tens of thousands of people taking part in Stop Brexit, Manchester for Europe and People’s Assembly protests will also converge on Manchester on Sunday afternoon … Catalonia is scheduled to hold an independence referendum, despite the Madrid government ruling it illegal. POLITICO will live blog.

SUNDAY SHOWS LOOK-AHEAD: Theresa May is on the Marr Show, along with Momentum founder Jon Lansman … First Secretary of State Damian Green and Metro Mayor for Greater Manchester Andy Burnham are on Peston on Sunday.

LONDON CALLING

Playbook recommends:“What Shadows,” a powerful play about immigration, identity and what it means to be English, which opened at the Park Theatre this week. The play centers around Enoch Powell, with the action switching between 1968 — the year of his infamous Rivers of Blood speech — and 1992, with Powell as an elderly man suffering from Parkinson’s. After a well-reviewed run in Birmingham and then Edinburgh, it will play in London until October 28.

Powell brought to life: Playbook caught the matinee performance yesterday afternoon, and Ian McDiarmid is utterly compelling in the central role as Powell. The script by no means dismisses Powell out of hand, and raises difficult questions about the politics of identity. Inevitably, the contemporary backdrop of mass immigration, Brexit and even Islamic fundamentalism loom large. The play is not perfect — some devices are more successful than others — but overall well worth your time.

Brexit industry latest: James Wharton, the former “Northern Powerhouse” Minister who lost his Stockton South seat in the June general election, has joined PR and public affairs agency Hume Brophy as a senior adviser to its Brexit unit. Wharton was best known as an MP for using a Private Member’s Bill to try to put an EU referendum into law back in 2013.