China

China's parliament

Grandpa Wen bows out

FOR HIS tenth and final time, China’s outgoing prime minister, Wen Jiabao, on March 5th rose to speak at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People at the opening of the annual plenary session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s parliament. As he did on the previous nine occasions, Mr Wen (pictured) delivered a full reading of his lengthy “government work report,” to nearly 3,000 delegates, outlining achievements of the year past and priorities for the future.

Among his key announcements were several important economic targets for this year. China, he said, would aim for economic growth of 7.5% while limiting inflation to “around” 3.5% and adding more than 9m urban jobs.

In a separate budget report, the government called for a 10.7% increase in defence spending to 720 billion yuan ($115.7 billion) in 2013. The rise comes at a time of persistent tension with Japan and other neighbours, but at a press conference a senior official repudiated the suggestion from one Japanese reporter that the move signalled an “aggressive” foreign policy.

"We strengthen our defence forces to safeguard ourselves, security and peace, instead of threatening other countries," said Fu Ying, who is China’s vice foreign minister and also the spokesperson for this year’s NPC session.

By the time this year’s session ends, on March 17th, the defence increase will almost certainly have been approved, together with the rest of the budget report, several other government reports (including Mr Wen's), and nominees for many top government posts. Though it calls itself a legislature and votes on motions, the NPC has never rejected anything put before it. Notwithstanding the important work the NPC does outside of the plenary sessions, the annual meeting remains heavily stage-managed and is far from shaking free of its well-deserved label as a rubber-stamp.

It is likewise nearly certain that Mr Wen will be replaced at the end of this session by Li Keqiang, currently deputy prime minister; and that outgoing president Hu Jintao will be replaced by Xi Jinping, who has already taken over as the top leader of the Communist Party and currently holds the state position of vice-president. These are the final touches on the contentious leadership transition that unfolded over the course of last year and culminated in November, at China’s 18th Communist Party Congress.

During his ten years as premier, Mr Wen's cultivated his image as an avuncular figure full of concern for the common people, earning for himself the nickname "Grandpa Wen." In his final work report, Mr Wen was frank and forthcoming about many of the serious problems the new leadership duo is about to inherit.

“We are keenly aware that we still face many difficulties and problems,” Mr Wen said, citing corruption, environmental degradation, inequality, unbalanced growth and social tension. His government's final budget included increased spending on health care, social security and environmental protection. Many in China will surely welcome this, even if they remain unimpressed with the shopworn prescriptions he proposed for China's systemic ills.

"We should unwaveringly combat corruption, strengthen political integrity... and ensure that officials are honest, government is clean and political affairs are handled with integrity," he said. That may be hard to argue with. But it will also be hard to implement.

The Economist’s so called “China's systemic ills” IMO is that China under CCP keeps getting better despite of problems surfaced or predicted in the West and its development keeps thriving on disasters and international crisis it encountered one after another, often turning a mode of Schadenfreude to the despair of consternation for major foreign powers.
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This is to be expected though because China pursues a policy of building socialism inside China with Chinese characteristics through unabated and continuous opening up and reform of itself and its process of governance, with plenty to show for so far:

The Hu-Wen team is no saint, but it did the best it could under the circumstances in the past 10 years IMO. For the past 5 years from 2008 to 2012 alone and amidst world’s worst financial disaster, relentless West pressured RMB currency re-valuation of more than 25% and some mean natural calamities happened in China, it managed to double the national GDP to about $8.3 trillion by 2012 (by market exchange rate, or $11.5 trillion by ppp), to have built a national health delivery safety net from scratch that now covers 95% of China’s population, and to become world's biggest foreign trading entity.

China and its FDI investors must have done things right. In the past 5 years, Chinese GDP has grown at 9% per year for 4 years except for 2012. As world’s biggest exporter and the largest trading nation by 2012, there are 124 nations now calling China their largest trading partner.

And CCP Hu-Wen team must have done thing tremendously right too, to have achieved a more effective defense posture never achieved before in PRC with only less than 1.5% of GDP defense annual outlay in the past 5 years (as compared to more than 3% of GDP defense expenditures of USA and others like India. Even Japan, already under the blanket security protection umbrella of the US, spent a whopping 1% of its huge GDP on honing its already advanced military gears (What for besides bullying?).

China now has an international responsibility to strengthen its defense posture much more than it is capable of now to protect the sea lanes and transporting routes of the increasing volume and interest of China and its trading partners.

The Economist says (rightly or wrongly) : “Notwithstanding the important work the NPC does outside of the plenary sessions, the annual meeting remains heavily stage-managed and is far from shaking free of its well-deserved label as a rubber-stamp”, but dear Economist, we like our system just fine.

It shows government by consensus is working in China. For every “rubber stamp”, it reveals that lots of debate, caucus and reasoning were put into to reach the displaying unison. There are room for improvement in government and democracy to be sure, but we don’t need chest beating oratory showmanship or hostage taking special interest lobbying in the parliament in China. (Not that that’s necessarily bad governance, but that’s certainly not necessarily good governance either).

Wen's reputation as "Grandpa" certainly took a hit in October 2012, when the New York Time's report on the fortunes of Wen's family members accumulated during Wen's years in power came out. While Wen himself may be a frugal and kind man devoted to the well-being of the common people and fighting official corruption, he didn't do much to show for it, mostly due to strong opposition within the Chinese Communist Party. It is really too bad for China that Wen has essentially been sidelined for the start, and I think history will remember Wen as a kind and moderate leader who wanted reforms but wasn't able to do much. Meaningful political reforms in China will have to wait longer, and maybe the seemingly straightforward and tough Xi Jinping, along with Li Keqiang as Prime Minister, could get at least some minor political reforms through.

What I am worrying is whether there may be marked ups and downs in growth. Ordinary Chinese care little or on about what figures or how many GDP will develop by, rather we are concerned over how much we are paid, what medcial insurance is offered by government, and whether our children have the safely food to eat when young, whether they are employed when grow up and have a house of their own. Equality and justice is what we are dreaming of, and hope the new leaders will translate what they promised in Congress into action to secure us of a better tomorrow under the clean sky.

Good policies, people-friendly and sensitive to citizen sufferings, should be greeted and publicly hailed, be they products of a multiparty system or a one-party dominant. The main components of the proclaimed policies appear to have fused the wisdom of ‘wo xin chang dan’, meaning ‘to endure hardships in order to accomplish some ambition’. When such a humble attitude is fully integrated with elements of international and regional friendship, the contribution to the world peace is apparent. China will prevail, given her restated attempts to maintain good relationships with all her neighbors and all other nations, small or big, poor or rich.

Any possible success of good policies depends on implementations at the local government. According to news reports, corruptions at different levels of the Chinese state bureaucracy have become so rampant that good intentions at the top level do not reach the general public. It is really a pity to a population having suffered so much indignity and trauma in the past centuries. As reiterated by the top officials, incumbent or prospective, the fighting of corruption will be one of top priorities in the future administration. Only sincerely and rigorously fighting immorality and briberies can the government restore the true confidence of her citizens.

According to New York Times Weekly (February 19, 2003), the incoming president Xi Jingping pushes to revive functions of the Constitution. Such a campaign will hopefully lead to the government by laws; thus everyone will be equal before the law, no matter what background an individual comes from. This is indispensable for successful implementations of good policies. Recurrent instances of power abuse have reportedly flared up indignation among local people, resulting in numerous social unrests. Strict observance of laws by the government as well as by the people prepares the ground for a healthy and wealthy nation.

Equally urgent is the solutions for the widening extremes between the very poor and the very rich. Again from New York Times Weekly (March 5, 2003), China reportedly has about eight million students annually graduated from colleges and universities, an alarmingly high proportion of these young people being unemployed, awaiting job opportunities provided by all sectors, public and private. On the other hand, the hardships encountered by migrant workers as well as those farmers living hand-to-mouth existence should be effectively addressed. Only then can the good policies practically benefit the nation as a whole. The incoming government brings new hopes.
Lau Hieng-Hiong, Hsinchu, TAIWAN

Rising GDP is the best weapon to fight corruption, and to promote democracy, in the long run. The dawn of modern democracy originated from Magna-Carta: a treaty between the English Lords and the king to protect lords' property rights from king's discretion, and from which originated many concepts of rights (and rule of law). Thus 'democracy' was born out of practicality, not ideology. And 'democracy, et al' can only function in a society of means. If the people are poor and have nothing to lose, there is no incentive to protect what they have (for there is none) or to prevent them from taking from others.

Under Wen's watch, Chinese GDP increased 3 to 4 folds, which is a solid foundation for democracy to take root in China.

Yes, a befitting tribute to Wen. Moderation and the common touch with the people are his hallmarks. Alone, he could not resist the force of vested interest (princelings, etc). Not sure that the Xi/Li team can do any better.