Academic seminar: Belt & Road: Aims, Influence on World Order and International Security

On March 1, 2018 the Center for Regional Strategic Analysis, Institute for National Strategic Studies(INSS), National Defense Research University(NDRU), MOD, RA, organized an academic seminar titled “One Belt, One Road”(OBOR) Initiative: Aims, Influence on World Order and International Security,” which was chaired by Lieutenant General (LTG) Hayk Kotanjian, Founding Head, NDRU, Professor, Doctor of Political Science.

Mher Sahakyan, PhD, Research Fellow at the NDRUand IPSA member, presented his research focusing on the aims, influence and security factor of the OBOR in international affairs.

The main argument of this study is that China tries to implement the aims of the OBOR for creating a new political and economic pole, which will act independently from the West.

The speaker also introduced China’s main security issues and the ways with which Beijing plans to use the OBOR for solving the aforementioned issues and for spreading its influence.

During his speech, Mher touched upon the importance of harmonization of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the OBOR initiative, emphasizing that, as an EAEU member, Armenia might use this fact as an opportunity for improving its cooperation with China in the framework of the OBOR.

The speaker also introduced the Chinese initiative from the perspectives of International Relations theories. These methods, as he argued, were important in respect of understanding China’s strategies and ideological pillars for implementing the OBOR.

In sum, Mher gave a detailed analysis of China’s growing role in the changing World Order. The presentation was followed by a discussion about both the topic of the research, and the methods used by the speaker.

The Academic Seminar was moderated by Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Vice President for Research, NDRU. Among attendees were Davit Manasyan, PhD, Head of the Center for Regional Strategic Analysis, NDRU, Anna Gevorgyan, Head of the Academic Educational Center, NDRU, and Research Fellows of the Center for Regional Strategic Analysis, NDRU–Vahram Petrosyan, PhD, Varujan Geghamyan, PhD, Azat Davtyan, PhD, Grisha Aghajanyan, PhD Student, NDRU, Major Arlen Shahverdyan, Senior Officer, PhD Student, NDRU and Mher Parvanyan, PhD Student, Armenian State University of Economics.

During the last years the NDRU continues its research on OBOR, the results of which were stated by LTG, Professor, Dr. Hayk Kotanjian, at the parliamentary hearings on “Armenia-European Union (EU): Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Between EU Armenia.”

In July 2017, facing the conclusion of Armenia’s agreement with the EU, the NDRU embarked on the elaboration of the geostrategic initiative of Armenia’s integration into China’s OBOR initiative. It is targeted at the assessment of the possibility of launching a new alternative China-Europe route in the context of the OBOR initiative, by integrating the China-Iran sea transit into the “Persian Gulf-Black Sea” multimodal transport corridor. The given elaboration was previously discussed in July 2017, during the visit of the delegation headed by MG Chan Inli, former Head of the School of Defense Studies of China’s National Defense University, to NDRU. This very strategic integration project was delivered to the Central Military Commission of the People’s Republic of China. The NDRU-developed project is to endow Armenia’s geopolitical role in the region with a new strategic caliber and raise to a qualitatively new level the EU’s bilateral and multilateral cooperation with Iran and China with participation of Armenia.

The NDRU was opened on January 28, 2016. It is founded based on the INSS, which was established in 2005 as the research component and organizational backbone of NDRU.

In 2003-2004, commissioned by the then Minister of Defense Serzh Sargsyan, LTG Hayk Kotanjian developed the Project of NDRU during his academic fellowship at the U.S. National Defense University.

The goal of this unique research university in the region is to increase the efficiency of the Armenian defense security system through bridging research and educational activities. Among the tasks of the NDRU is the research in the areas of regional security dynamics, cybersecurity and ICT, strategic gaming, as well as developments targeted at the effective management of cyber-digital resources. Based on these studies, relevant analyses and recommendations are submitted to the political-military leadership of Armenia contributing to the enhancement of their knowledge in the field of security policy.

Quality of Life in Latvia is not a priority

Four presidents, 14 governments and eight Seimas have changed in Latvia
over the past 20 years. The country joined the European Union and NATO, and
then switched to the euro. But have Latvians become better off? Has their
quality of life improved? Statistics shows that the general well-being of
population remains very low. Political turbulence only worsens the situation.

Thus, according to Numbeo.com
portal, one of the largest databases on the cost
of living and quality of life worldwide, Lithuania and Latvia are the worst
Nordic countries for quality of life.

Quality of Life Index by Country 2019

The leaders of the rating are Denmark, Finland and Iceland. Latvia
showed the lowest result, the quality of life index here is 149.15 points. In
Lithuania, the result is slightly higher – 156.36 points.
Numbeo experts took into account the purchasing power of the population,
safety, health care, the cost of living and some other factors.

It is noted that the world ranking of countries for the quality of life
is led by Denmark, Switzerland and Finland. Estonia took 11th place, Lithuania
– 29th, and Latvia – 34th.

The more so, experts said that the proportion of shadow economy in
Latvia rose by 2.2 percentage point last year to 24.2 percent.

The shadow economy proportion in Latvia has risen for the past two years
in a row.

EU-SILC survey gives
another frightening indicator. According to eurostat.ec.europa.eu, Latvia, as
well as Estonia and Lithuania are top three EU countries in terms of poverty
risk among pensioners.

Political and economic short-sightedness has lead to the state when the
Baltic States have become the first battlefield in case of war between NATO and
Russia.

The United States is preparing for the use of nuclear weapons in Europe
along with non-nuclear countries, said Vladimir Ermakov, director of the
Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control of the Russian Foreign
Ministry. Experts point out that military airfields in the Baltic States and
Poland have already been prepared to receive NATO aircraft that can carry
tactical nuclear weapons. If take his words seriously, this means the end of
the Baltic States’ existence.

The behavior of the authorities guaranteed Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia
the status of the first battlefield, despite the fact that in the event of war,
economy would be completely destroyed and population would disappear.

Related

How the Caspian Sea joins the Black Sea

In the
development of international cooperation and the deepening of industrial
cooperation, the leading role belongs to the formation of a network of
international transport corridors. It has a special place in solving transport
problems associated with the expansion of interstate transportation, economic,
cultural and other ties, with the creation of an international transport
infrastructure that has common technical parameters and ensures the use of a
single transportation technology as the basis for the integration of national
transport systems into the global transport system.

Developing
corridors are to play a system-forming role in the economic and social
development of the territories along which they pass. Their creation is
directly related to projects for the development of sectors of the economy and
social sphere.

If a modern
transport corridor connects the Caspian Sea and Black Sea, it will lead to
uninterrupted cargo transportation between Asia and Europe. New opportunities
for the regional states will be opened up. This was confirmed by the first
meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Romania, Georgia and
Turkmenistan, held in mid-March 2019 in Bucharest.

According
to its results, a political declaration was signed. The document reflects the
determination of the four states to implement the project of an international
freight route between two seas by joint forces.

As
expected, the corridor between the two seas will have a real impact on the
standard of living in the participating countries and cause a sharp surge in
business activity in neighboring regions.

The idea of
the project is to make full use of the geographical proximity of Romania,
Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, as well as the capabilities of the ports
of Constanta in Romania, Poti in Georgia, Baku in Azerbaijan and Turkmenbashi
in Turkmenistan.

New
transport route will allow establishing a direct connection between the port of
Constanta and the Danube River, and then the rivers and canals on the European
continent, that will open access to Central and Northern Europe.

In general,
the Caspian-Black Sea region is becoming links of a single Eurasian transport
network.

The main
question is how to direct the necessary volumes of cargo along this route,
which would make its work profitable and profitable. To meet these challenges,
in the near future four countries have planned to create an expert working
group, optimize working procedures, harmonize tariffs, identify remaining
infrastructure and legal constraints, and jointly promote the project at the
international level, including in the course of interaction with the European
Union. But it will not be easy for them to achieve all these ambitious goals.

The closest
allies of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia, support all the projects aimed at
strengthening economic cooperation between Baku and other countries of the
Caspian-Black Sea region. Moscow and Ankara are lobbying for the creation of a
transport corridor between the two seas.

Azerbaijan
once again demonstrates that it is becoming one of the most important transport
hubs of Eurasia – a transit hub in which the East and the West are tightly
tied.

This
country is interested in East and West, not conflicting with each other, but
driven forward by the single energy of partnership.

China’s changing interests in South Caucasus

On April25-28,“Second Belt and Road Forum
for International Cooperation” took place in the capital city of China. From South Caucasus region only Azerbaijan
leader Aliyev was in the list of 36 top-Level attendees (Diplomat, April 27).As the Azerbaijan was
participating first forum in 2017 on ministerial level, visit of President in
second forum demonstrates intention of both sides for close cooperation within
the framework BRI.

Despite fact
that China’s strong ambition to enter European market through BRI makes Georgia
one of the most important players in the region (it has FTA both with China and
EU) its high-level officials did not attend the forum (Emerging-Europe, January 3, 2018).

Generally, South
Caucasus region was not in the Chinese focus when the BRI project was unveiled in
2013.Its attitude to the region has changed afterwards. Being part of the
Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor, South Caucasus has strategic
importance for China. At the same time, transportation projects such as
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and Anaklia Deep-Sea Port has increased significance
of the region.

From
geopolitical point of view stability in Azerbaijan and Georgia’s political
problems with Russia creates ground for Chinese presence in Caucasus. It is
clear that having political problems with West Russia is not willing to
confront China. Therefore, using these opportunities and establishing good
relations both with Georgia and Azerbaijan China is able to avoid its biggest
rival in Eurasia and use shortest way to European markets (Trend.az, April 10).

Importance of
South Caucasus countries within the BRI framework is not same. Armenia has less
potential for BRI. It does not have enough transportation infrastructure and
its borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey closed. Armenia has a potential to
become a corridor to markets of Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and Iran.
However, it does not have borders with the members of EEU and railway project between Armenia and Iran is
not viable due its high costs ($3.2 billion) and less importance in commercial
means (Vestnikkavkaza, August 25, 2018).Also, China has borders
with two biggest members of EEU and could easily reach EEU markets through
them.

In the case of
Georgia, China is the biggest foreign investor. China’s Hualing Group controls
Kutaisi free industrial zone (FIZ), owns Basis Bank, hotels, wine export
enterprise. It also constructs “Tbilisi Sea New City” near Tbilisi Sea in which
company has already invested around 150 million dollars (hualing.ge).Another Chinese company CEFC Energy owns 75%
of Poti FIZ (Cbw.ge, March 20).

Unlike the
Georgia, mostly state-owned Chinese companies have invested in Azerbaijan. One
of these companies CTIEC Group constructed biggest cement factory in Azerbaijan in 2014.China also has a great interest on Baku
International Sea Trade Port as it is one of the main ports within BRI. Based
on intergovernmental grant agreement China transferred $2 million worth
equipment to the port (Azernews, April 4, 2018).

Despite fact that Azerbaijan is China’s
key trade partner in the South Caucasus (it accounts 43 percent of China’s
trade turnover in the region) it has massive investments in Georgia (Azernews, April 25). It mostly related to political orientation of these
countries. Georgia follows more western orientation that made it more
attractive for China while Azerbaijan implements balanced strategy and it does
not want to feel China’s pressure. Besides, Azerbaijan is not in need of
financial assistance like Armenia and Georgia as it has enough financial
reserves.

However, recent developments of Sino-Azeri
economic relations within the framework of the Second Belt and Road Forum creates
new perspectives for China’s presence in South Caucasus. During the forum 10 agreements
worth of 821 million USD has been signed
(Azvision.az, April 24). These contracts cover different economic spheres of non-oil
sector including the construction of a tire factory in the Sumgayit
chemical-industrial park, the creation of a 300-hectare greenhouse complex in
the Kurdamir region of Azerbaijan, and the construction of agrological
industrial parks in the Guba, Goychay and Khachmaz regions (Turan.az April 24).If we take in account that Chinese investors
have invested800 million USD in the economy of Azerbaijan since independence, obtained
agreements in the forum worth of same amount shows China’s growing interest in
Azerbaijan.

Nevertheless, it does not mean that
China’s preference of Georgia has changed. Within the BRI project both Azerbaijan
and Georgia are of geopolitical importance for China. It is in China’s interest
to boost bilateral relations with both of countries. It is apparent that China
already has considerable investments in Georgia and now it is time to deepen
cooperation with Azerbaijan. At the same time Azerbaijan is not going to cross
limits of its balanced policy. Chinese companies that signed agreements in
second forum are government affiliated companies as well. It again shows that Azerbaijan
is willing to deepen cooperation without creating room for pressure in its
domestic economy.