Labor wins Victorian election - the final wrap

So Labor, as the opinion polls predicted, has won the Victorian election. The precise margin of victory will be known in the coming day or so, as well as the make-up of what appears to be a rather complex upper house.

While it was an election of small targets and stodgy rhetoric, it nevertheless is historic - the first time a one-term government has been kicked out of power in Victoria since 1955.

There are also national implications - Tony Abbott hasn’t helped the Victorian Coalition, although the degree can be argued, and Labor has ended a streak of depressing losses/tenuous minority government victories that have stretched back the best part of a decade in federal and state politics. To wrap up -

The Coalition’s post mortem of this election will invariably focus on federal issues.

Labor has been keen to pin the loss on Tony Abbott and while the Coalition officially dismisses the link, privately there’s a feeling that Denis Napthine was unable to campaign on his own strengths, such as Victoria’s budget surplus and a popular crackdown on crime.

Sean Kelly, former advisor to the Rudd and Gillard government, says:

Tony Abbott’s reaction will be very interesting.

He can of course deny this result has anything to do with him. That would be in keeping with the strategy of denial that Liberal MPs have recently begun criticising - for example on the budget, where the PM has refused to concede he has broken any promises in the face of clear evidence to the contrary.

The much smarter move would be to acknowledge voter anger and use that concession as a segue into clearing away the barnacles he recently promised to deal with.

It could be an interesting barometer of how much he’s willing to alter a strategy that hasn’t served him well.

Gay Alcorn’s analysis of the Victorian election is up and it’s highly recommended reading.

Denis Napthine, a former country vet, is like your favourite uncle – a bit of a dag but highly likeable. And the government’s management of the state’s finances was tight and responsible. It’s not obvious why Victorians decided to humiliate this particular government this way.

Daniel Andrews victory speech

Daniel Andrews is now giving his victory speech, acknowledging Denis Napthine’s service before calling the election a rejection of “negative politics.”

He then gets specific, saying that he’ll end the ambulance workers pay dispute, give a better deal to nurses and midwives and make Victoria the “education state.”

Andrews mentions the “ambos and firies” who stood up to say they want a government who “puts them first.” He says he will start work tomorrow to make sure this is a “fairer state...the progressive capital of our nation, the ideas capital of our nation.”

A few thoughts on Denis Napthine. It is hard to pick up any anger at the outgoing premier, even among Labor die-hards. There seems to be a recognition that Napthine is a fundamentally decent, if stolid, man focused on improvements to the state.

In some respects, he did that in his short time as premier since replacing Ted Baillieu - the financial position is something he can rightfully point to. When the terrorism frenzy was at its height recently, Napthine was an admirably calm voice of inclusion and multiculturalism.

But there were problems - Geoff Shaw, the enraged ambulance workers, the rushed, poorly-explained East West link. And, perhaps most of all, the burden of Tony Abbott, a deeply unpopular figure in Victoria.

Napthine - perhaps - deserved a little better. But he was behind for some time in the polls and was unable to show any kind of incisive thinking to turn things around.

Denis Napthine concedes defeat, stands down as Liberal leader

Denis Napthine is now making a speech to the Liberal faithful, admitting that there has been a “swing to the Labor party” and says he has called Daniel Andrews to concede defeat.

Napthine graciously congratulates Labor and then launches into a lengthy defence of his government’s record, citing Victoria’s budget surplus, law and order toughness and infrastructure building program. He urges Labor to press ahead with the East West link, despite the party’s opposition to it.

He then gets a bit more personal, thanking volunteers and the Liberal party machine. There’s a nod to Ted Baillieu, the former premier, and Napthine’s own staff and family.

Napthine then announces he is standing down as leader of the Liberal party, saying it’s time for “renewal and change.”

Guardian Australia’s Michael Safi is at the Victorian Liberal’s post-election gathering at the Sofitel in Melbourne.

Michael says:

It’s a subdued atmosphere at the Grand Sofitel Ballroom, where around one hundred Liberal party members are gathered to see the results come in and eventually, hear from the premier Denis Napthine.

Post-mortems have broken out across the blue-balloon studded ballroom as it looks increasingly likely that we’re seeing a historic swing that might return to Labor the dominance in enjoyed in Victoria between 1999 and 2010.

One member has says the Coalition was hampered by the Shaw saga, the controversy over the East-West link toll road, and another negative: “Barnacles.”

Indexing the fuel excise and the $7 GP co-payment come up again and again as the glum attendees try to explain why the Napthine government wasn’t able to close Labor’s consistent election-winning lead.

There’s also a delegation of Pacific Islanders in the room, including Edward, an electoral officer from Papua New Guinea, who was invited to observe the final week of Victoria’s poll.

He says he was astounded how well co-ordinated the campaign has been, put was most shocked today by the absence of security at polling stations. “In PNG there are guards with guns,” he said.

Also surprising was the fact the votes are placed in cardboard parcels. “For us it’s heavy metal boxes.”