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Vaughn Palmer: Clark’s unpopularity with women could be the defining factor in the election

Christy Clark’s political problem here in B.C. is not with men. It is women who would appear to be holding her back.

Photograph by: NICK PROCAYLO
, PNG

VICTORIA — When I mentioned recently how the gender gap might be the biggest electoral challenge facing Christy Clark, a colleague from another province jumped to the conclusion that the premier’s problem was with men.

You know: Men have a problem with women in authority. Men don’t like taking direction from women. Male prejudice is an obstacle to women gaining leadership positions. And so on.

But I had to point out to my colleague that Christy Clark’s political problem here in B.C. is not with men. It is women who would appear to be holding her back.

The point was borne out again in the latest survey of public opinion by Ipsos Reid, released this week.

The pollster found that among men, Clark’s governing B.C. Liberals were entirely competitive with the Adrian Dix-led New Democratic Party: Liberals 43 per cent, NDP 41 per cent.

A dead heat, in effect. The two-point gap in support was within the margin of error (plus or minus 3.1 points) imputed to the online survey, conducted Nov. 26 to 30, among the 1,000 members of the Ipsos household panel.

Women supplied a much different ranking between the two main parties. Some 56 per cent of those surveyed supported the Dix-led NDP, only 27 per cent went with the Clark-led Liberals, for a gap of 29 points.

A smaller gap than in some earlier polls but still wide enough to be fatal in a general election. With the genders combined, the New Democrats led the Liberals by a crushing 48 points to 35, landslide territory.

As to why women and men have such a different take on the two parties, the Ipsos Reid findings suggested a possibility or two.

When the pollster asked “how would you rate the condition of the B.C. economy?” men and women responded in roughly similar proportions, with about 60 per cent saying “good,” and 40 per cent or so saying “bad.”

But when the survey raised a question about the mood of the province — “Do you think things in B.C. right now are heading more in the right direction or in the wrong direction?” — the genders diverged.

Men, by a margin of 54 per cent to 36 per cent, thought the province was headed in the right direction. Women leaned the other way, with only 39 per cent supporting the way things are headed, while 47 per cent said B.C. was on the wrong track.

Thus it would appear that fewer women saw the favourable economic conditions translating into results that mattered to them.

The latter observation dovetails with a quote that I came across recently from W.A.C. Bennett, B.C.’s longest-serving premier, where he cited one of the factors behind his 20-year tenure in office.

“Scratch a man and he’s a Liberal or a Tory. But a woman is more genuine. She just wants her country to advance. The women kept us in power.”

Times change. But maybe on that score, they don’t.

The Ipsos Reid findings also suggest that men and women differ over how Clark’s limitations should affect the re-election prospects for her party.

Both genders expressed significant disapproval of her performance as premier of the province. But it would appear that men were more inclined to overlook her shortcomings and stick with her party, perhaps because of its economic record.

Asked to rate the two major leaders, men were more approving (48 per cent) than disapproving (41) of the job done by Dix as Opposition leader. They disapproved (57 per cent) more than they approved (39 per cent) of the job being done by Clark as premier.

Still some men were prepared to put aside their reservations about Clark’s performance and still support her party, given the competitive position of the Liberals vis-a-vis the New Democrats in the party preference rankings.

Whereas with women, their expressed preference for the NDP (56 per cent) pretty much matched the 57-per- cent approval rating they accorded to Dix. Only 30 per cent of women had a favourable impression of Clark and only 27 per cent were inclined to vote Liberal.

To recap, it would appear that women, as a group, aren’t making the same connections as men between the performance of the economy and their own priorities for B.C. As well, women may be less forgiving than men of Clark’s stumblings as a leader.

These are only impressions, extrapolated from the one recent poll. I raise them as part of an effort to better understand one of the defining concerns of Christy Clark’s 21-months-and-counting tenure as premier, namely her troubles with women voters.

Though other polls have found women to be supporting the New Democrats over the Liberals by hefty margins, none have probed the reasons for the gender gap in sufficient depth to provide a definitive explanation.

But from the data that has been gathered so far, several things stand out.

First, the gender gap for the Liberals is worse under Clark than it was under her predecessor, Gordon Campbell. Second, there is a personal element to it, often voiced by women as a lack of authenticity to the Clark style of leadership.

Third, women don’t merely disapprove of Clark, they approve of Adrian Dix. Fourth, unless Clark finds a way to win over substantial numbers of women voters, the gender gap alone could cost the Liberals the election.

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