tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post5956848717903726280..comments2014-05-22T09:35:05.878-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: No, Boehner Isn't NutsJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-32271870839934774792012-12-21T08:08:49.125-06:002012-12-21T08:08:49.125-06:00Given how thoroughly Boehner soiled himself last n...Given how thoroughly Boehner soiled himself last night, and given that there is no reason to suspect any arbitrarily selected Speaker elected solely by Republicans will not face the same dilemma, what do you think the odds are of a small core of (relatively) moderate GOP defectors making a deal for Democratic unanimity to vote one of them Speaker? Sort of the inverse of what just happened in New York, right? Is there a non-zero possibility of this? Certainly one could imagine a lot more actual governance happening if the core agreement on any bill had to come from Obama, Reid, and what would basically be a deal between Pelosi and (say) Rodney Frelinghuysen than one that requires a deal between Obama and Boehner/Cantor/whoever needs the support of 217/233 House GOPers to hold the gavel.Squarely Rootedhttp://squarelyrooted.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-46004196599071033172012-12-21T07:32:45.421-06:002012-12-21T07:32:45.421-06:00Right now, it seems like the only thing that matte...Right now, it seems like the only thing that matters to much of the house GOP is a primary challenge from the right; and voting for a tax hike would, for many, be the matter of which such a challenge is made.<br /><br />So I expected no deal, and guess that the only possible deal will come from a majority made of mostly Dems and a few Republicans; I doubt Boehner&#39;s got the spine to go there. <br /><br />What I&#39;d really like to see is some primary challenges from the right (old-school, sane kind that believe in actually governing) running and independents. zicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-27084495912391349162012-12-21T03:41:24.911-06:002012-12-21T03:41:24.911-06:00Well, Boehner may not be nuts, but he&#39;s just b...Well, Boehner may not be nuts, but he&#39;s just been &quot;whipped.&quot; It is quite ironic that he contended that President Obama can&#39;t control his party. Project much, Mr. Boehner? nanutehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04526158764171117978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-69257687886700375142012-12-20T20:54:44.597-06:002012-12-20T20:54:44.597-06:00The GOP appears to have imploded and gone home.The GOP appears to have imploded and gone home.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-35912014127999651412012-12-20T18:59:17.974-06:002012-12-20T18:59:17.974-06:00Vote delayed? Whatever Boehner&#39;s plan was, it...Vote delayed? Whatever Boehner&#39;s plan was, it doesn&#39;t seem to be working very well. Matt Yglesias pointed out now&#39;s a good time to &quot;unskew&quot; the whip count.longwalkdownlyndalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13173899547449318257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-41777104031929381522012-12-20T17:20:13.229-06:002012-12-20T17:20:13.229-06:00I think Occam&#39;s Razor is helpful here. If it l...I think Occam&#39;s Razor is helpful here. If it looks like Boehner is doing something nuts so that he can hold onto his Speakership when his crazy caucus votes for Speaker next month, then that&#39;s most likely what he is doing. No 11 dimensional chess explanations are required.Ron E.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-20978660648542675042012-12-20T16:57:20.605-06:002012-12-20T16:57:20.605-06:00But isn&#39;t the Plan B vote just as imprecise? A...But isn&#39;t the Plan B vote just as imprecise? As you note, they won&#39;t end up actually voting for it, because then they would have been for taxes before they were against them. But, assume the count does end up around 200 at some point in the voting, then finishes much lower than that. That will be written up in reporting, Fox will notice, and interest groups will notice. The whip count, by contrast, is relatively private. I&#39;d expect fewer incentives for MCs to dissemble there, not more. So, the whip count really should be more accurate than a test vote.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-88500277659856403782012-12-20T16:25:21.934-06:002012-12-20T16:25:21.934-06:00Because it&#39;s hard to do a hypothetical whip co...Because it&#39;s hard to do a hypothetical whip count. It&#39;s not the whip team; it&#39;s that Members have no incentive to tell the truth, given that they&#39;re not even sure what they&#39;re hypothetically committing to.Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-58790086537154772192012-12-20T16:22:57.086-06:002012-12-20T16:22:57.086-06:00Yeah I&#39;m with Jarvis, why couldn&#39;t he just...Yeah I&#39;m with Jarvis, why couldn&#39;t he just do a normal Whip count to figure these things out? I suppose he can try and find stuff out via the plan B vote, but the only reason it seems like he would do this is r because he doesn&#39;t trust his whips to tell him the truth or doesn&#39;t trust his ability to read his caucus. Hasn&#39;t this guy been speaker for two years? <br /><br />I just realized the vote is coming up! Lets turn this into a prediction thread! I&#39;m going to guess plan B won&#39;t even crack the 100 aye mark, it&#39;ll peter out around 80 or 90 and Pelosi will point and laugh.longwalkdownlyndalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13173899547449318257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-88378137609806105252012-12-20T15:52:01.534-06:002012-12-20T15:52:01.534-06:00I think Boehner stepped in it, but there&#39;s a r...I think Boehner stepped in it, but there&#39;s a reason why.<br />Plan B as a whip count doesn&#39;t work quite as well as....oh, let&#39;s say....a whip count. The Whip exists for a reason. (Plan B CAN exist as Boehner trying to teach his absolutely insane conference that they&#39;re absolutely insane. Of course, that rarely works out well.)<br /><br />However, why might Boehner have used Plan B, and done so as a whip count? Becuase he can&#39;t use the Whip! Maybe McCarthy has his eyes on being Majority Leader, or is at least on Cantor&#39;s side (I&#39;m firmly in the camp of those who think that Cantor is gunning for the Speakership with every move he makes). Boehner&#39;s problem might be less of his conference than of his leadership. As you noted, none of them want any ownership of any consequences from this; they want Boehner to take the fall. Heck, these guys could easily have sat on their hands when Boehner kicked around Plan B amongst the leadership; they want him to fail.<br />Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.com