By Tai Wei Lim

Cooling Temperatures and Defense Postures in East Asia

With cooling regional temperatures in East Asian
affairs and politics, some wonder if the defense budgets in the region will also
cool down correspondingly. The Trump-Kim summit in Singapore set the way for
the possibility of lasting peace in East Asia. The Korean Peninsula stand-off
between Pyongyang and Washington/Seoul/Tokyo has long been a worry. Since the conclusion
of the summit, the North Koreans have returned the ashes of US soldiers who
died in the Korean War (1950-53) as promised during the Trump-Kim summit. The
Trump administration in the US is positive in their evaluation of this latest
sign of rapprochement. Since the Trump-Kim summit, there have been no nuclear
or missile tests by Pyongyang, partially silencing some of Trump’s critics who are
suspicious of the summit outcome.

Pyongyang has also gone to other states in the region to
invite companies from these countries to invest in its economy. China,
Singapore and even South Korea and Japan are potential investors if the UN
economic sanctions over North Korea are dropped when there is complete,
irreversible, and verifiable denuclearization (CVID). The two Koreas have also
held emotional events where families on both sides of the Demilitarized Zone
(DMZ) who were separated by the Korean War half a century ago are able to come
together, some of them meeting for the first time. The reunions are emotional,
teary, and tugged at the heartstrings of people inside and outside both Koreas.

In the South China Sea, there have also been cooling
temperatures as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China
announced the success of incorporating all materials related to the Code of
Conduct in the South China Sea into a single document. This by itself is a
major victory and is a positive development pointing towards the eventual
formalization of a Code of Conduct. This is testimony to the chairmanship of
the ASEAN Chair. It is a major positive step in the right direction, along the
long road of settling the South China Sea issue. Along with such discussions,
there are voices of cooperation in issues like marine life conservation raised
by the Philippines as a form of outreach cooperation with the Chinese.

On August 31, 2018, China took part in a major
Australia-hosted exercise known as Exercise Kakadu for the first time. This is
a reversal of the naval tensions in April 2018 when Chinese warships tailed
Australian ones moving through the South China Sea. The Chinese participation
was seen as a de-escalation of naval tensions and was welcomed by most of the
27 participants. Exercise Kakadu was also an invaluable opportunity to discuss
issues of common interest where there are no detriments to cooperating closely
together. They include: human smuggling, piracy, and criminal appropriation of
other parties’ property by force. The Australians were firm in bringing up the
topic of the freedom of navigation although they did not highlight or point out
the Chinese in particular. The atmosphere was one of firmness in putting
opinions across but also carefully managed with face-saving features, for
example, not naming names.

China also made some moves in early June to reduce
temperatures in the South China Sea. For example, it removed their HQ-9
missiles from one of their occupied islands, although it was not known if they
were removed temporarily for routine checks, permanently un-deployed, or simply
moved inside buildings. The HQ-9 is a lethal missile system whose capabilities
are often equated with the top-of-the-line US Patriot or Russian S-300 missile
systems.

China is reaching out
to its neighbors Tokyo, Seoul, the ASEAN capitals and even India in order to
hedge against the Trump administration’s economic tensions with Beijing.

Another major power in the region has also made policy
decisions that indicate its moderate strategic military behavior and defense outlook.
Japan released its annual Defense White Paper on August 28. While the Japanese Defense
budget has been rising since the conservatives returned to power in 2013, it
has not yet surpassed 1 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. In fact, in
2018, it stayed at 0.8 percent. The 1 percent limit is a self-imposed one, as there
are no legal requirements to do so. A vast majority of Japanese society
continue to remain pacifist and dovish.

In 2017, Japan had its budget increased following
threatening missile tests from North Korea, especially after two North Korean
ballistic missiles flew over Hokkaido. In 2018, temperatures have remarkably
toned down since the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore. But Japan, like all other
countries in the region, naturally maintains a vigilant and cautious attitude
towards Pyongyang. Like the US, Japan seeks CVID conditions before dropping any
security vigilance against North Korea.

The Defense White Paper also noted that, besides its nuclear
devices and ballistic missiles, North Korea also has a large number of shorter-range
Rodong missiles which can also threaten the region. Japan suspects that the
nuclear devices may have already been miniaturized to a size small enough to
fit into the missile cone warhead of the Rodong missile. This is in addition to
the chemical warheads that Pyongyang is said to possess, in the form of sarin
gas tipped Scud-type ballistic missiles. Therefore, in guarding against such
Weapons of Mass Destruction, there must be vigilance in continuing to assess
the ballistic missile situation in North Korea. For this reason, Japan has purchased
long-range Lockheed Martin radar to complement their new Aegis Ashore missiles
purchased from the US. It is a purchase that fits very well with President
Trump’s promotion of US military technology for the defense and protection of US
allies.

Japan has chosen the Lockheed Martin radar over the
Raytheon alternative which has a shorter range. The Lockheed Martin radar is far
more powerful than any other radar for the existing Aegis systems in Japan, and
can monitor airspace over North Korea more effectively. The radar system allows
Japan to intercept any incoming missile at a further and longer range from its
territory. Together with the US-operated THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defense)
missile system in Seoul, the air defense over South Korea, Japan and US bases
and assets there is ironclad and prevents any incoming missiles from North
Korea reaching the US network of alliance countries.

Russia and China are mentioned in the Japanese White
Paper but the mention has been considerably diluted due to warmer rapprochement
of late between Japan and China. China is reaching out to its neighbors Tokyo,
Seoul, the ASEAN capitals and even India in order to hedge against the Trump
administration’s economic tensions with Beijing. The US is slapping tariffs in
an escalating trade war with China which has seen China retaliating with their
own tariffs. It is a tit-for-tat situation. In the bilateral tensions between
the world’s two economic superpowers, Beijing needs all the support, friendship,
partnership, and at the very least, non-obstructive behavior from other
countries.

Even during Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir
Mohamed’s visit to China, Premier Li Keqiang sought to mobilize Malaysian
support against trade protectionism. Meanwhile it appears the negotiations over
the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is going well, and some
regional pro-free trade countries are already optimistically declaring the
possibility of an end to negotiations this year. This forms another reason for
Beijing to reach out to Tokyo as both countries have a convergence of interest
in keeping free and open global trade alive in an era characterized by rising
protectionism, populism and anti-globalization forces.