Bridging the budget gap

Lower commodity prices have hurt the economies of all of OPEC’s members considerably, with many of them needing to borrow money to bridge the budget gap. Libya, in particular, is expected to need large loans through the rest of the decade, with its borrowing as a percent of GDP reaching 68.15% this year, and an expectation that it will need to borrow 43.35% of its GDP next year as the country deals with both low oil prices and a civil war, according to the IMF. Venezuela is also expected to borrow substantial amounts of money, with the international lender of last resort projecting the country will borrow 20%-22% of its GDP through the end of the decade.

IMF Sees OPEC Borrowing at Elevated Levels through 2019

Saudi Arabia’s increasing debt has been a point of focus among international markets as analysts watch how OPEC’s largest producer continues to handle the aftermath of a decision it spearheaded last November to maintain production and let oil prices drop.

Saudi Arabia’s OPEC compatriots also face a serious shortfall in funding however, with many of OPEC’s member-states holding much smaller reserves than the kingdom. Based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average borrowing as a percent of GDP for OPEC countries will exceed 10% this year, and remain above the 2.8% average seen in 2014 for the next five years.

Other national economies that are strongly dependent on oil prices for income, such as Russia, will also be adversely affected by the continued downturn in the price of their main revenue-generating product. Russia’s borrowing as a percent of GDP is expected to decline faster than OPEC’s, however, with the country borrowing 3.69% of GDP this year, and then lowering that to about 0.5% by 2018.

The IMF forecasts that the U.S. will borrow less as a percent of GDP each year until 2018, when the fund sees borrowing at 3.34%, before increasing through the end of the decade to 3.91% in 2020.

This increased borrowing on the behalf of OPEC members is also expected to pull down the levels of savings the countries are putting back into their sovereign funds, unsurprisingly.

The OPEC member states have been using their sovereign funds as a cushion during the current commodity downcycle. Saudi Arabia’s use of sovereign funds in particular has been well publicized, with some estimates putting the kingdom’s spending at $12 billion per month to plug its budget deficit, as long as Brent crude prices were below $45/barrel.

The New York Times reports that Saudi’s foreign reserves has declined by $90 billion in the last year, but still sits at about $647 billion overall. The IMF had previously advised Saudi Arabia to raise debt, saying the country could deplete its spending support within five years if it had continued at the current pace.

The percent OPEC countries are expected to save will increase to near-2014 levels by 2017, according to the IMF, but with the group already shoveling money out of their coffers to bridge budget deficits, they will have some ground to regain following the increased spending and borrowing already seen this year, which is expected to continue in 2016.

Sign Up for Closing Bell

Our Free, End-of-Day Oil & Gas News Report

Important disclosures: The information provided herein is believed to be reliable; however, EnerCom, Inc. makes no representation or warranty as to its completeness or accuracy. EnerCom’s conclusions are based upon information gathered from sources deemed to be reliable. This note is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument of any company mentioned in this note. This note was prepared for general circulation and does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors. All readers of the note must make their own investment decisions based upon their specific investment objectives and financial situation utilizing their own financial advisors as they deem necessary. Investors should consider a company’s entire financial and operational structure in making any investment decisions. Past performance of any company discussed in this note should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. EnerCom is a multi-disciplined management consulting services firm that regularly intends to seek business, or currently may be undertaking business, with companies covered on Oil & Gas 360®, and thereby seeks to receive compensation from these companies for its services. In addition, EnerCom, or its principals or employees, may have an economic interest in any of these companies. As a result, readers of EnerCom’s Oil & Gas 360® should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this note. EnerCom, or its principals or employees, may have an economic interest in any of the companies covered in this report or on Oil & Gas 360®. As a result, readers of EnerCom’s reports or Oil & Gas 360® should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

E&Ps Locking in Cash Flows and Sales Prices OPEC’s agreement to cut production levels has kicked off a rush among shale oil companies to hedge their oil price risk above $50 for 2017 and 2018. The number of E&Ps selling oil for delivery next year has pushed the WTI forward curve into slight backwardation after two years of contango. Compare[Read More…]