China to be increasingly assertive, US analysts say

‘PRETTY GOOD’:：A US security analyst said President Ma Ying-jeou was taking a ‘solid middle path’ in cross-strait ties, but another warned that the Taiwan Strait was unstable

By William Lowther / Staff reporter in WASHINGTON

Wed, Dec 19, 2012 - Page 3

The Chinese military will continue to improve its capabilities and will become increasingly willing to use force in “more assertive and coercive ways,” a defense analyst told a conference in Washington.

Asked to comment on the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台) — which Taiwan, China and Japan all claim sovereignty over — McGrath said US diplomats were working behind the scenes “right now” to help solve the conflict.

Efforts were underway to mediate the problem and find a peaceful solution, he said, speaking at the Hudson Institute’s conference on US Naval Strategy in the Western Pacific.

However, if a military conflict breaks out, the US may “have no choice” but to join and honor its treaty with Japan, said McGrath, who is a retired US naval officer.

“China is becoming more assertive and more aggressive and the US cannot afford to be less engaged,” he said.

McGrath said that US diplomats would now be “leaning” on both China and Japan to calm things down.

Also at the conference was the head of strategic analysis company Global Strategies, Paul Giarra.

Giarra, who is also a retired US naval officer, said that Beijing was “completely unimpressed” with US actions and “certainly not deterred.”

“We need to change that equation because we are in a very difficult, taxing, threatening and perhaps civilizational competition with China,” he said.

Taiwan, South Korea and Japan were potentially the most significant US allies.

“Geographically, Taiwan plays a tremendously important role, but Taiwan has been minimized and undermined and demoralized since derecognition,” he said.

“China’s suborning of Taiwan is clearly very successful,” he added.

Whether the US could turn that around and “encourage” Taiwan to take on a more proactive role remained to be seen.

“Our friends should know that we are with them elbow to elbow and Chinese decisionmakers should be aware that it is not a good day to start a fight with us or with any of our friends,” McGrath said.

At the same time, it was important to remember that Taiwan and China were moving closer and closer to “rapprochement” every day, he said.

“Taiwan has come to see democracy as important to its culture and this rapprochement will not happen peacefully until it views China as more democratic than it is today,” McGrath said.