Real Economic Benefit In Attracting Visitors Can Be Disputed -- But * The Point Of Making Estimates Is To Maintain Continued Political Support From Municipalities And Financial Support From The Public And Corporate Sponsors.

February 23, 1997|by RANDY KRAFT, The Morning Call

Visitors at local events and attractions may spend millions of dollars in the Lehigh Valley -- at service stations, restaurants, shops, hotels and more.

However, accurately determining just how much economic benefit an event or attraction generates is complicated, time-consuming and expensive.

And, even after all the work is done, the result is still only an estimate.

"All methods are fallible," said Dr. John Gatewood of Lehigh University, who does annual assessments for Bethlehem's Musikfest. "Our method is not perfect. I look at these numbers as ballpark figures."

Musikfest visitors spent more than $17.7 million last year, according to a study by Camwood Research Associates. But Gatewood, who is a principal in the research group, said that amount actually could range from $12.8 million to $23.7 million.

Other studies have shown:

* The three-day Drum Corps Associates World Championships on Labor Day weekend in Allentown will likely attract more than 16,000 fans, fill 2,400 hotel rooms and generate $2 million for local businesses.

* Hawk Mountain Sanctuary near Kempton pumps $3.8 million to $5.7 million into the surrounding community. That estimate is based on a formula developed for an economic impact survey done in 1990-91.

* The Pocono Raceway in western Monroe County pumped $158 million into the economy of Northeastern Pennsylvania, it was determined several years ago. And Nazareth Speedway in Nazareth pumped more than $25 million into the local economy. Spokesmen at both tracks have said those estimates are conservative and would be much higher if new studies were done today.

Such estimates are important because being a proven money-maker for a community helps an event or attraction justify its existence. They also help assure continued political support from local municipalities and financial support from the public and corporate sponsors.

"It becomes a real important factor when it comes to getting sponsors," said Bonnie Brosious, marketing director of the Lehigh County Agricultural Society, which operates the Allentown Fair.

No economic benefit assessment has ever been done for the Fair and fairgrounds, where trade shows are held throughout the year in Agricultural Hall, because, Brosious said, the agricultural society can't afford to hire a consultant.

She is skeptical about the accuracy of such studies, yet wishes the Fair could do one. She indicated it would be a useful public relations tool in issues such as the society's opposition to the city's new land value tax.

"It's a nice thing to have in your corner when you do it, because people seem to be dazzled by the numbers," said Brosious. "You can paint the picture any way you want to paint it."

"Most of the actual studies I have seen, the ones economists have done, are reasonably accurate," said Kamran Afshar, a Bethlehem consultant who does marketing research, customer satisfaction surveys and economic impact analyses.

"We come up with accuracies that are better than 90 percent. We start out by saying every study will have an error and factor in what that error will be."

But when those studies are interpreted, Afshar added, enthusiasm sometimes takes over and the focus is on best-case scenarios.

In addition to attendance, an increasing number of upcoming events across the country boast about their multi-million-dollar benefits for the surrounding community, usually with no explanation about how such projections were made.

"When someone gets up and espouses these figures, no one challenges them," said Brosious. "They just let it go. Whenever I hear somebody get up and say that stuff, I don't believe them. I don't buy it."

Although Brosious can't produce a dollar figure showing the fairgrounds' benefit to the Allentown area, she said she doesn't need one to know it has a tremendous benefit.

No standard formula exists for computing economic benefits based on attendance, according to Bill Evans, director of economic research at the Travel Industry Association of America.

He said big consulting firms get involved in making such projections for major events, such as the Olympics or Super Bowl. But small events and attractions, such as a museum or a community festival, might not be able to afford such a study -- which can cost thousands of dollars.

Doing it right is very complicated, taking time and money, said Karen Peterson, president of Davidson-Peterson Associates, a York, Maine, marketing, research and consulting firm specializing in travel and tourism.

Last year, Peterson determined that the average overnight visitor in the Lehigh Valley spent $98.51 a day and the average day tripper spent $37.47 during 1995.

She came up with those figures by taking data that staffers and volunteers at the Lehigh Valley Convention and Visitors Bureau gathered in interviews with visitors.