"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision, author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

Monday, 31 October 2016

Investors come surging back

Investors storm back

There have been a few indicators of property investors returning to the market over the past seven months, and the latest Financial Aggregates figures from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) confirmed as much, with investor credit growth recording by far the strongest monthly result since last year.

Annual investor credit growth now looks set to rise strongly again, although the present level of +4.8 per cent remains well below the arbitrary 10 per cent advisory speed limit.

Owner-occupier housing credit rose by +7.3 per cent from a year ago, easing back from a six-year high.

The weakness in business credit - and negative personal credit growth - put a dampener on total credit growth, which declined to +5.4 per cent from +6.6 per cent a year ago.

The tweak to higher term deposit rates has had the desired effect, with an +8.9 per cent year-on-year surge in TDs, being close to a four-year high.

Business credit growth, as noted, was yuck!

Housing credit continues to rise strongly, up by +6.4 per cent over the year to September towards $1.6 trillion.

It's impossible to say for certain whether housing equity redraw could account for non-existent personal credit growth, or even some of the the weakness in business credit growth. Who knows, really?

Regardless, apparently very solid total housing credit growth is now chasing lower new stock listings in Sydney and Melbourne.

Finally, housing now accounts for 61.3 per cent of outstanding credit, another record.

The wrap

Overall, total credit growth seems to be softening. The most noteworthy point by far was the strong monthly result for investor credit, a point which will not be lost on the regulators.