COLBERT BUSCH, SANFORD FACE OFF IN SOUTH CAROLINA—DSCC goes after Capito in W.Va.—One New Jersey launches new anti-Christie ad—EMILY’s List endorses Hanabusa —Cuccinelli up in latest Va. poll

By Emily Schultheis

05/07/13 05:59 AM EDT

SPECIAL ELECTION IN SOUTH CAROLINA: It’s been one of the most high-profile special House elections in recent history: former Republican Gov. Mark Sanford versus Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch, brother of Stephen Colbert. Heading into today’s special election, Sanford—whose campaign was rocked by allegations that Sanford had trespassed at his ex-wife’s house a few weeks ago—seems to be regaining ground against Colbert Busch.

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH, via Alex Isenstadt:1) Black voters: For Colbert Busch to pull off an upset, she needs black voters, who make up around 20 percent of the electorate and comprise a large portion of the district’s Democratic base, to come out in droves. 2) The enthusiasm quotient: Colbert Busch needs all the enthusiasm she can muster given the district’s conservative tilt; Mitt Romney won it by 18 percentage points. 3) Republican women: About 60 percent of the electorate will be comprised by self-identified Republicans. Just like Sanford needs a slice of black voters, the same is true with Colbert Busch and Republicans: If she can win 20 percent of GOP voters, Democrats say, game over. 4) The key counties: Sanford is relying on scoring big margins in two of the district’s most conservative counties, Berkeley and Dorchester. 5) The recount factor: As if the race hasn’t packed enough drama, now there’s the possibility of a recount. http://politi.co/16Pjnkj

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The latest poll in the race, from Public Policy Polling, shows a dead heat: Sanford is back in the lead against Colbert Busch by just 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent. That’s a 10-point shift from PPP’s last poll, which had Colbert Busch leading by 9 points, 50 percent to 41 percent. http://bit.ly/12cozsY

EXCLUSIVE—DSCC CALLS FOUL OVER CAPITO TRAVEL: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is launching an attack today on West Virginia GOP Senate candidate, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, for her international travel. The committee points to Capito’s comments last month that she “quit traveling” to cut her family expenses after the economic recession. But through her role in Congress, Capito has been on three taxpayer-funded international trips to a total ten countries since 2009. In a release later this morning, DSCC spokesman Justin Barasky will say the disparity is a sign of Capito’s “‘do as I say not as I do’ mentality.” Thus far, Capito does not have a Democratic opponent in the race—she does, however, have a primary opponent, former state delegate Pat McGeehan.

SCORE PREVIEW—ONE NEW JERSEY HITS LATE-NIGHT CHRISTIE IMAGE: The liberal group One New Jersey is going up with its third ad against New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie today, this time going after his image as a “funny” guy on late-night television. "It’s easy to giggle about Springsteen and the Mets with Jimmy Fallon and David Letterman,” said One New Jersey spokesman Joshua Henne, “but it’s quite another thing to answer for consistently trailing America when it comes to jobs, vetoing women’s health funding and vetoing an increase in the minimum wage while protecting a tax cut for millionaires.” The ad, a six-figure buy, will run for the next several weeks and complement the group’s existing ads. Christie, too, is advertising in the state already: he went up with a 60-second positive spot last week. State Sen. Barbara Buono, Christie’s Democratic opponent, has struggled with raising money in the race; One New Jersey’s efforts on her behalf will help even the score a bit. http://bit.ly/16PA1QH

BREAKING TODAY—EMILY’s LIST BACKS HANABUSA: The pro-Democratic women’s group EMILY’s List is throwing its support behind Hawaii Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in her challenge to sitting Sen. Brian Schatz—a move that helps set up a competitive Democratic primary in the race. In a statement set for release this morning, EMILY’s List President calls Hanabusa “a glass ceiling breaker who was the first woman in Hawai’i, and first Asian American woman in the country, to lead a state legislative chamber.” The DSCC and several other national groups have said they’re sticking with Schatz in the race, but Hanabusa—who Sen. Daniel Inouye named as his ideal successor before his death—is picking up endorsements as well. Inouye’s widow, Irene Hirano Inouye, also said she was supporting Hanabusa as her husband’s “last wish.”

FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD—

1) Will the South Carolina special election be close enough to trigger a recount?

2) Which GOP pols in Iowa will step up for the Senate race now that Steve King isn’t running?

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR—CUCCINELLI UP 5 IN POST POLL: The latest polling in the Virginia governor’s race, from the Washington Post, gives Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli a 5-point lead (46-41) over Democrat Terry McAuliffe among registered voters and a 10-point lead (51-41) among likely voters in the state. It’s a significant development in the race—most polling thus far has shown it to be a margin-of-error contest, and 10 points among likely voters is a strong lead for Cuccinelli. Unlike previous polls, the percentage of undecided voters dropped to 13 percent among registered voters and 8 percent among likely voters, a sign more people are tuning into the race. Still, only a small fraction of the state’s voters say they’re following the race “very closely,” and almost half of those surveyed say they could change their minds between now and November. http://wapo.st/10lJEiZ

MORE FROM VIRGINIA—RNC GOES AFTER MCAULIFFE BOOK: The Republican National Committee came out with a video Monday using McAuliffe’s own words to attack him. In the video, McAuliffe—whose voice was used from the audio version of his 2007 book, “What a Party!”—recounts the story of the day his wife gave birth to his son and he left them in the car to attend a DNC fundraiser. It’s a set of passages that has gotten a lot of attention in the last week, and one that’s sure to continue to be a talking point in the race for national Republicans going forward. http://bit.ly/13cDHZY

ASSIGNMENT EDITORS—CUCCINELLI PLANS MAJOR POLICY ROLLOUT AT 11AM: The GOP candidate will announce “the first major policy initiative of the campaign” at a frozen yogurt shop in Richmond, per the Cuccinelli campaign. McAuliffe has held a series of events in the last few days focusing on his policy agenda as well.

Virginia Dems’ pre-buttal to the Cuccinelli event, via DPVA Chairwoman Charniele Herring: “Ken Cuccinelli’s newfound interest in Virginia’s economy is too little too late for a politician who has spent years using his office to advance his own extreme pet causes instead of fighting for Virginia families.”

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE—MARKEY, GOMEZ SPAR OVER PLEDGE: After last week’s primaries, the two party nominees are now set: Democratic Rep. Ed Markey and Republican Gabriel Gomez. In their first week of the general election, Markey has repeatedly hammered Gomez for refusing to agree to the People’s Pledge, an agreement aimed at keeping outside advertising money out of the race. Last year, both former Republican Sen. Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren signed the pledge; Gomez has said he does not plan to sign it. Gomez’s campaign has responded by hitting Markey on the $3.4 million in special interest donations he’s accepted during his time in Congress. The election isn’t until June 25, but this is a theme that Markey likely won’t let up on in the coming weeks. http://bo.st/10lHMqd

PARTY COMMITTEE MINDMELD – STATE OF THE GENERAL ELECTION:

DSCC: “Ed Markey’s progressive credentials and the state’s deep blue tilt puts Democrats in a strong position, but we are leaving nothing to chance. Markey has built a strong campaign organization, engaging many of the activists that helped Elizabeth Warren’s impressive grassroots campaign. Unlike Scott Brown, Gabriel Gomez supports nearly every major policy position of the national Republican Party. Gomez is anti-choice; supports major cuts to Social Security; opposes Wall Street reform; and is refusing to sign the popular People’s Pledge that blocks third party groups from advertising on television. Gomez’s refusal to criticize the NRA for invoking the Boston marathon was an unforced error right out of the gate and Gomez’s Romney-esque business dealings and lifestyle could also prove to be a major vulnerability.”

NRSC: “Democrats ran far left in the primary and chose Ed Markey, a Washington insider since the Gerald Ford era. Instead of talking to voters about jobs, opportunity, and their future (issues they actually care about), Markey is obsessed with global warming and campaign finances, an odd mix since FEC reports reveal that he’s bought and paid for by the PACs, industries and corporations he oversees. Republicans should send a fruit basket. The Democratic Playbook doesn’t cover new Republicans like Gabriel Gomez – a young, Hispanic, problem solving former Navy SEAL whom National Tea Party groups say is too centrist and Bay State women know has same position on abortion as John Kerry and Ted Kennedy. Democrats may still be favored, but with 49 days to go, the energy and enthusiasm in Massachusetts is with Gomez.”

MORE MASSACHUSETTS—LYNCH WON’T RUN FOR MAYOR: He’s said it before, and he’s saying it again now that he’s lost the Democratic Senate primary against Markey: Rep. Stephen Lynch won’t run for mayor of Boston. He told the Boston Herald on Monday that he’s still not interested in the post. “I’m not running for mayor of the city of Boston, thank you very much,” he said. “I think we have enough great candidates there and that’s not something that I want to do right now.” http://bit.ly/16PlBA7

NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR—CHRISTIE RAISES MORE THAN $6 MILLION: Chris Christie has brought in almost $6.2 million thus far for his reelection bid, his campaign announced Monday. Christie’s campaign has $3.4 million on hand, even after a massive $1.2 million ad buy across the state last week. Barbara Buono, though, lags far behind Christie in her fundraising thus far. She’s taken in $738,000 as of April 30, and has received $1.02 million in matching funds from the state. At her current fundraising rate, Buono won’t bring in enough money to qualify for the maximum matching funds in the primary. http://politi.co/16Pnv3T

LOS ANGELES MAYOR—GREUEL LENDS HER CAMPAIGN $100K: The Los Angeles Times reports: “City Controller Wendy Greuel, whose campaign for Los Angeles mayor had been dramatically out-spending rival Eric Garcetti, loaned her campaign $100,000, according to documents filed with the City Ethics Commission over the weekend. The move comes a little more than two weeks before election day, as Greuel faces cash-flow pressures that have forced her to cut back on TV advertising. ... Garcetti loaned his campaign $50,000 on April 19. The money was earmarked for paying off expenses incurred during the primary race and cannot be used on the current campaign.” http://lat.ms/16PtmWQ

ILLINOIS GOP CHAIR TO RESIGN OVER GAY MARRIAGE STANCE: Pat Brady, who’s served as chairman of the Illinois Republican Party since 2009, will reportedly resign today after internal state GOP pushback for his support of a state bill that would legalize same-sex marriage in the state. He survived an ouster attempt in March, but some party members were still working on a plan to push Brady out by the summer. This fight over marriage is a sign of what’s to come in the GOP as more members of the party accept same-sex marriage: Illinois’s Senator, Mark Kirk, is one of two members of the Senate who have endorsed same-sex marriage. http://trib.in/10lI40t

2014 NEWS—

ILLINOIS HOUSE EXCLUSIVE—DEMS RECRUIT CALLIS: Former Madison County Chief Judge Ann Callis will run for Congress in Illinois’s 13 th district, the Democrat will announce today. She’ll challenge freshman Rep. Rodney Davis. The district, in northern Illinois was one of the closest races in the country last year that Democrats lost—recruiting a candidate early will help Democrats be in a better position to take the seat this time around. http://bit.ly/18r7NLo

IOWA SENATE—THE POST-KING LANDSCAPE: Iowa Rep. Steve King was the last high-profile GOP prospect for the state’s open Senate seat, and he announced this weekend that he’s not running—so who’s on deck now? A handful of lesser-known pols in the state have expressed interest in the race: Secretary of State Matt Schultz, state Sen. Joni Ernst, former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker, Chuck Grassley aide David Young and former state Sen. Rod Roberts, to name a few. Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, another prospect who recently said she’s not planning to run, said she’s encouraging Ernst to run for the seat. Now that King has made his decision, it’s likely that the remaining prospects will start announcing their intentions in the near future—the longer the GOP waits to get its candidates in the race, the more time Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley has to build up a fundraising lead. http://bit.ly/16PIByS

TEXAS LAND COMMISSIONER—GEORGE P. COMES TO WASHINGTON: George P. Bush, son of Jeb Bush and nephew of President George W. Bush, is headed to D.C. this week to fundraise for both himself and a fellow Texan, Rep. Roger Williams. Bush is running for the lower-profile but politically significant position of Texas Land Commissioner, which is often seen as a jumping-off point for future gubernatorial candidates to build their statewide network. Per an invitation obtained by POLITICO, the Wednesday evening fundraiser costs $500 per person and $2,500 to host. Bush, who’s just 37, is a name to keep an eye on in future elections: as a young, Hispanic attorney and Afghanistan veteran, he’s lauded as a future leader in the GOP. http://politi.co/16PoBwh

NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE—BROWN STILL UNDECIDED: It’s been several weeks since former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown first sparked speculation that he’d challenge Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, but in another Granite State appearance last weekend he said he’s still completely undecided. “I don't think I need to make any decisions right now, really,” he said, per the New Hampshire Union Leader. “I'm not quite sure what I'm going to do, to be honest with you.” Again, it’s not clear how serious Brown is about the prospect of running in a new state—but his frequent appearances in the state, capped with this most recent one last weekend, show that he’s at least interested in the prospect. http://bit.ly/16Pu0DL

MICHIGAN GOVERNOR—SNYDER WON’T GET ’10 REMATCH: Unlike South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who’s facing her 2010 challenger again in 2014, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder won’t have a 2010 rematch on his hands. Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, who was Snyder’s Democratic opponent three years ago, said he won’t run for governor again. “It’s not my time,” he said, per MLive.com, adding that he has “baggage” that would hurt him in the race. Snyder, one of national Democrats’ top targets for 2014, hasn’t gotten a Democratic challenger in the race thus far. Former Reps. Mark Schauer and Bart Stupak are both mentioned as possible candidates to challenge Snyder, though neither has announced a bid thus far. http://bit.ly/16PJXtD

ALASKA GOVERNOR/SENATE—PARNELL WILL RUN AGAIN: With Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell’s announcement that he’s running for reelection—and not for Senate, against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich—all eyes turn to Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell for Senate. Parnell told the AP on Friday that he felt he could be “more effective for Alaskans” as governor than in the Senate. Treadwell, who’s said he’s seriously considering the Senate race, doesn’t plan to make an announcement until sometime this summer. He’s national Republicans’ pick over Joe Miller, the GOP candidate from 2010 who’s said he’s considering getting in this time around too. If both Treadwell and Miller run, it could result in an ugly primary that would hurt Republicans’ chances of taking the seat. http://bit.ly/16PqRDN

2016 WATCH—

FLORIDA NIXES EARLY PRIMARY DATE: Florida may have been the key disruptor in the 2012 calendar, but the state isn’t looking to cause problems next time. For 2016, the state legislature voted to move the primary to “the first Tuesday that the rules of the major political parties provide for state delegations to be allocated without penalty.” The move was spearheaded by Sen. Marco Rubio, per the Miami Herald: Rubio, who very well could be on the ballot in 2016, wanted to keep the state from losing a massive number of delegates if it went before the approved primary date. On the GOP side the state’s delegates would drop from 99 to 12, and Democrats wouldn’t give Florida any delegates if it skipped to earlier on the calendar. Florida played a big role in the way the 2012 GOP primary panned out: it was largely responsible for Newt Gingrich’s demise and helped cement Mitt Romney’s place as frontrunner in the campaign. Its role in 2016 will be less clear when it’s further back on the calendar. http://bit.ly/16PvvSr

CRUZ GETS PALMETTO STATE LOVE: Ted Cruz, whose Palmetto State speech last weekend was the topic of much 2016 speculation, also courted the state’s donors while he was there. Alex Burns: “Before Cruz delivered his public speech at the state party’s annual dinner, he met with a more exclusive group of about 15 major contributors to the South Carolina Republican Party. The quiet gathering was organized as a perk for some of the state’s most prolific Republican donors. Cruz himself didn’t collect any campaign money from the event – but if Cruz hopes to run for president down the line, it can only help to start meeting South Carolina power brokers now.” http://politi.co/16PwmCz

WALKER SAYS ’16 TALK WON’T HURT HIS REELECTION ODDS: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who just won a recall election last June and is up for reelection next fall, said the chatter about his presidential ambitions won’t affect his reelection bid back home. “If there's more buzz, that's all the more attention they'll have for our plans,” he said, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. And after dodging questions about whether he’d serve out a full four-year term if reelected, Walker said he’d address that issue once his reelection bid gets underway: “Obviously, I've got every intention of preparing to run for governor, but I'll address that as part of officially being a candidate,” he said. http://bit.ly/16Px9TT

LIGHTER CLICKS—

CHRIS CHRISTIE squashed a spider during a speech to schoolchildren and now PETA’s mad at him: http://nydn.us/13cMD1k

BILL CLINTON tried to get Led Zeppelin to reunite for a Hurricane Sandy benefit and they said no. http://yhoo.it/16PpWmU

CODA – QUOTE OF THE DAY: “[I]f it doesn’t happen, I’m forever back to the world of real estate, and I’m at peace with that.” —Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, on what he’ll do if he loses the special election today. http://politi.co/16PqyZM

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Authors:

About The Author

Emily Schultheis is a national political reporter and author of POLITICO Pro’s daily Morning Score tipsheet. She joined POLITICO as a 2010 summer intern, then filed stories on the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate and gubernatorial races and the 2012 election throughout her senior year at the University of Pennsylvania. Since arriving full-time at POLITICO in summer 2011, Schultheis spent the 2012 cycle writing for the “Burns & Haberman” blog and traveling the country with different presidential candidates. She took over Morning Score in January 2013.

In summer 2013, Schultheis was one of ten American journalists selected for the Arthur F. Burns Fellowship, an international reporting program for young journalists. She spent two months covering the German election in Berlin for POLITICO and SPIEGEL International.

Schultheis began covering politics for The Daily Pennsylvanian, Penn’s student-run newspaper, in 2008, trailing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton throughout Philadelphia during the lead-up to the Pennsylvania primary. Her work has also appeared in the Philadelphia Daily News, Philadelphia City Paper and UWIRE’s Youth Vote ‘08 blog. She graduated summa cum laude from Penn with a degree in English literature in May 2011.

Schultheis, originally from the San Francisco Bay area, now lives in Arlington.