This study re-analyzes Isaac Ehrlich's 1960 cross-section
data on the relationship between aggregate levels of punishment and
crime rates. It provides alternative model specifications and
estimations. The study examined the deterrent effects of punishment on
seven FBI index crimes: murder, rape, assault, larceny, robbery,
burglary, and auto theft. Socio-economic variables include family
income, percentage of families earning below half of the median income,
unemployment rate for urban males in the age groups 14-24 and 35-39,
labor force participation rate, educational level, percentage of young
males and non-whites in the population, percentage of population in the
SMSA, sex ratio, and place of occurrence. Two sanction variables are
also included: 1) the probability of imprisonment, and 2) the average
time served in prison when sentenced (severity of punishment). Also
included are: per capita police expenditure for 1959 and 1960, and the
crime rates for murder, rape, assault, larceny, robbery, burglary, and
auto theft.