As head of the One Laptop per Child project (OLPC), former MIT Media Director Nicholas Negroponte could be considered the father of the netbook. A tireless warrior, he's worked hard to get the OLPC designed and adopted for use in third-world countries to help children improve their educational process and give them a better chance in life. And, to be sure, the roots of the netbook can be traced to his efforts.

However, from an historical viewpoint, another key player more accurately projected the current concept of a netbook and how it would impact the market. Jeff Hawkins, the father of the PDA and early smartphones, the man who cofounded Palm Computing and introduced something called the Foleo 18 months ago, was also quite the visionary. You may remember that the Foleo was actually launched with much fanfare at the The Wall Street Journal's "D: All Things Digital" conference in May of 2007, and it generated quite a buzz.

When the new management team came to Palm later that year, the Foleo was killed.
But if you think about the Foleo today, especially its design and communications goal, you not only see how current netbooks were influenced by Jeff's product but also where they're headingand how they could potentially rewrite the concept of mobile computing.

The Foleo itself looked a lot like today's netbooks, with its use of a Linux OS and a customized user interface that included a browser and mini-applications for some level of productivity. Also, the Foleo was designed as a companion to a Palm smartphone; it even would have used the smartphone's GSM radio to connect to the Internet. Jeff saw that a smartphone's small screen and limited keyboard would never allow a person to do "real work;" a user would need some type of companion device to be really productive.

The problem was, the $499 Foleo was actually quite underpowered compared with the Atom-based netbooks on the market todayand more expensive. The decision to kill it made sense, but had Palm evolved the Foleo, perhaps it could have played the role that ASUS has assumed in pushing netbooks into the mainstream. And maybe Palm could have reaped the benefits of this hot market opportunity.

I've known Hawkins since 1989 when he was at GRiD, and I'm convinced that he's a visionary. As he explained his thinking and the logic behind the creation of the original Palm PDA, I saw in him a great propensity to envision what customers will eventually want in a product. Similarly, before he launched the Handspring smartphone, the idea of a smartphone wasn't on anybody else's radar. That's why, when he showed me the Foleo, I was bullish about the idea. I had come to trust Jeff's ability to see the future before anyone else.

But it was in linking the wireless radio to the Foleo that his visionary prowess really came out. The more I talk with folks working on next-gen netbooks, the more I realize that a netbook's real value may lie in persistent connectivity. Sure, it's similar to an iPhone and some of the other smartphones, but we all know that smartphones aren't optimal for taking extensive notes, writing longer e-mails, or even watching lengthy videos, and we long for something like a netbook for these types of tasks.

Many people are wondering whether netbooks will eventually be sold by the wireless carriers as part of a subsidized packageand positioned as "maxi" phones. Indeed, in some parts of the world, carriers are already doing this. In Sweden, a person can get a monthly all-you-can-eat data plan for about $30 and for another $30 or so per month, you also get a laptop with a wireless chip built in. And in Malaysia, carriers have a similar low-cost data plan: Add $28 per month and you can get a netbook as part of the deal.

It's unclear when U.S. wireless carriers will move in a similar direction, but I see a real trend around Jeff Hawkins's original concept of tying netbook-like devices to wireless WAN chips. So when netbook vendors and the carriers make oodles of dough from these devices in the future, I suggest they give a nod not only to Nicholas Negroponte but also to Jeff Hawkins. Jeff got the PDA and smartphone right well before anyone else, and it looks as if he may have done it again.

Tim Bajarin is one of the leading analysts working in the technology industry today. He is president of Creative Strategies (www.creativestrategies.com), a research company that produces strategy research reports for 50 to 60 companies annuallya roster that includes semiconductor and PC companies, as well as those in telecommunications, consumer electronics, and media. Customers have included AMD, Apple, Dell, HP, Intel, and Microsoft, among many others. You can e-mail him directly attim@creativestrategies.com.

Read More

About the Author

Tim Bajarin is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts, and futurists covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin has been with Creative Strategies since 1981 and has served as a consultant to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry including IBM, Apple, Xerox, Comp... See Full Bio

Get Our Best Stories!

This newsletter may contain advertising, deals, or affiliate links. Subscribing to a newsletter indicates your consent to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. You may unsubscribe from the newsletters at any time.