The Flash Flood Threat continues for much of New Mexico today. Albuquerque, central and northern portions of the state are under Flash Flood Watches from noon until late tonight for the chance for strong storms to dump heavy rain on saturated ground. It won’t take much rainfall for flash flooding to occur later this afternoon. Remember “Turn Around Don’t Drown” and stay away from arroyos if you find yourself under a heavy downpour.

Storm coverage will be slowly diminishing over the next few days as we start to usher in some drier air from the west. We will have spot storms in parts of New Mexico for Monday and Tuesday, but by mid-week we will start to see more sunshine. That sun will heat central New Mexico back up into the low to mid 90s with the triple digits returning to the southern half of the state.

Flash Flood Watches continue for much of northern and western New Mexico tonight until at least midnight. That means more storms could dump heavy rain causing rising waters with little notice so remember “turn around, don’t drown” and stay away from arroyos if you do find yourself under a heavy downpour.

Storms will eventually taper off overnight and we will be left with a mix of sun and clouds to start Sunday morning. By the afternoon, we will have another round of storms with the chance for flash flooding especially around the higher terrain. Spot storms will be possible around Albuquerque tonight and into Monday before everyone starts to dry out and heat back up by mid-week.

After a wet past few days things will begin to dry out a bit over the weekend. High pressure will slide over the state and stop the flow from the south. As we use up the moisture each afternoon there will be fewer storms that will form the following day. By early next week the storm crop should be pretty small.

Into next week things look drier than this past week. We will continue to watch the high to see when the moisture will return.

Abundant moisture remains in place over New Mexico so that means more periods of heavy rain are likely in parts of the state. Flash Flood Watches are up for much of central and northern New Mexico but it doesn’t include Albuquerque. That doesn’t mean the metro will be dry this afternoon because we will have a shot for thunderstorms later today. If you do find yourself under a heavy downpour, be sure to give yourself extra time and don’t cross water covered roads. The storms will last into early Saturday before we get a break Saturday morning. By the afternoon, more storms will be possible especially around the higher terrain. But, an area of high pressure is going to be building over New Mexico this weekend. That means some drier air could work into the state limiting storms to at least the mountains for the weekend with the chance some of the storms could drift into valley locations, Overall though, there will be a down tick in the thunderstorm coverage over the next few days thanks to that high pressure system. Stay with KRQE for more weather updates on the flash flooding threat today.

FRIDAY: Light to moderate showers continue to linger over southwest and east-central NM through the early morning hours. More storms and showers are expected to fire by late afternoon as a good amount of moisture stays in place. Northern and western portions of the state will be favored for some of the stronger storms and showers, however, it is still possible to pick up a few stray storms over south-central and southeast NM (coverage will be limited). Recent rain and strong storms will combine to heighten the flooding risk – particularly within the higher terrain and burn scars.

SATURDAY: A few overnight showers are likely to stick around through the early morning hours before sunshine starts to fill in by late morning / early afternoon. Clouds will build by late day, setting the stage for another round of afternoon storms. Spotty to scattered storms will develop over northern and western NM while high pressure continues to edge in over the southeast.

Deep moisture and the heat of the day will continue to lead to thunderstorms across New Mexico through the end of the work week. The areas most at risk to flood will be the mountains. However, we could see flooding rains just about anywhere given how wet it’s been. Into the weekend, we will slowly use up our moisture leading to a thinner storm crop each day. Next week does look dryer with fewer storms.

Flash Flood Watches continue this afternoon for much of central and northern New Mexico through early Friday morning. That means we still have the chance for storms to develop and dump heavy rain on already saturated ground. This could lead to flash flooding. So if you come cross a water covered road you want to Remember Turn Around Don’t Drown and stay away from arroyos as they could fill up with water fast with little notice. It only takes 6″ of rushing water to knock you off your feet.

We could see another round of storms on Friday and these storms could also produce some localized areas of heavy rain tomorrow afternoon. By the weekend, an area of high pressure builds over New Mexico and this will push the storm chances to the Northern Mountains and western New Mexico. Under this high, we will still have some moisture to work with to recycle for afternoon storms, but they won’t be as widespread. Stay with KRQE News 13 for weather updates throughout the rest of the afternoon and tonight. You can also track the storms on the KRQE Weather App.

THURSDAY: Storms and showers continue to linger over east-central, south-central and west-central NM with only a few light showers drifting over the Rio Grande Valley (stronger storms can be found out over the Plains). Morning temperatures in the 50s, 60s and 70s will warm into the 70s, 80s and 90s this afternoon. Scattered to widespread showers and storms will return by late day – favoring the northern 2/3rds of the state. Spotty storms will be possible across east-central and southeast NM, however, coverage will not be as extensive as what was seen Wednesday. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect for most of northern and central NM through 4AM Friday.

FRIDAY: Spotty to scattered showers will favor the northern half of the state – particularly the higher elevations. As high pressure nears the state from the southeast, storm chances will continue to shrink with not much expected over the southern and eastern portions of the state. Afternoon temperatures will fall up to 5-10 degrees below average in some areas – leaving the ABQ-metro area in the low to mid-80s.

WEEKEND: High pressure will help dry out the state with only a few spotty showers possible both Saturday and Sunday.

Deep monsoonal moisture combined with a back door cold front and a weather disturbance will lead New Mexico into a very wet period. Widespread storms will be in play tonight and throughout the day both Thursday and Friday. The biggest flooding concerns are over the northern mountains in northeast. Here in Albuquerque, we picked up nearly an inch of rain from the first round of storms with more likely in the next couple days.

]]>http://krqe.com/2015/07/29/marks-wednesday-evening-forecast-32/feed/0Thu, 30 Jul 2015 04:30:30 +0000Mark3krqemarkronchettiMark4Mark3Mark2Mark1Rain stymies drought in about half of New Mexicohttp://krqe.com/2015/07/29/rain-stymies-drought-in-about-half-of-new-mexico/
http://krqe.com/2015/07/29/rain-stymies-drought-in-about-half-of-new-mexico/#commentsWed, 29 Jul 2015 21:00:54 +0000http://krqe.com/?p=186517]]>ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) – More than 49 percent of the state is free of drought conditions following the fourth-wettest six months the state has seen.

Drought was present statewide in July 2014, with the prevalence of severe drought at 77 percent compared to 1 percent currently, The Albuquerque Journal reported.

Socorro County extension agent Jessica Smith says while producers are grateful for the rainfall, they aren’t counting on the drought being over for good.

“The cattle are fat and sassy, and the calves are big,” she said. “The producers I’ve talked to are super happy. I don’t think anyone thinks we are out of the woods and the drought is over for good, but they sure are grateful for what we have now.”

Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District hydrologist David Gensler says this wet year is a rare occurrence.

“It is only a tiny, tiny percent of years that the water stays up this high naturally,” Gensler said. “And with the storms setting up here for the next few days, I think we are going to get into August without having to release any water.

“So far, it is working out pretty well. It is just a good, comfortable year for everybody, the irrigators, the (endangered) silvery minnow, everybody.”

The new numbers were discussed Tuesday during a drought monitoring work group session.

Valencia County agriculture extension agent Newt McCarty says rain can mean wet hay and more weeds for cows to get into, but that inconvenient rain is better than none.

“It does reduce the farmers’ opportunity to get top dollar for their hay even though they still have to put the same money into producing it,” McCarty said. “Ninety percent of what farmers do is out of their control. A rained-on hay cutting is 25 to 30 percent of their annual income.”

McCarty said some cattle have died from eating locoweed.

“Locoweed greened up real fast, and some producers had some cows get on it,” Smith said. “A few cattle here and there were lost. The locoweed is still out there, but now there are also more desirable grasses, and the cows are feeding on that.”

WEDNESDAY: Scattered to widespread showers are likely to develop after lunchtime, continuing through the overnight hours. Higher elevations and the Northeastern Plains are favored for the heaviest rain, raising concerns for flash flooding. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for nearly the entire northern half of the state beginning noon today – continuing through 3AM Thursday. Thanks to a strong, overnight cold front, afternoon temperatures will be 5-15 cooler than what was felt Tuesday, leaving most of us in the 70s, 80s and 90s.

THURSDAY: Another round of widespread rain is expected over central and northern NM by late afternoon and evening. High pressure edging in from the southeast will limit storm coverage to the south, however, it is still possible to see a few spot storms. Afternoon temperatures will be keep to the 70s, 80s and 90s statewide – most of us below average for this time of year.

A big time crop of thunderstorms will overtake New Mexico on Wednesday. The combination of a backdoor cold front and the monsoon flow pattern will combine for widespread storms. Early in the day showers will form and only intensify during the afternoon.

Flooding will be a real concern over northeastern sections of the state in the northern mountains. Another widespread storm day will be on tap for Thursday before slow drying Friday into the weekend.

TUESDAY: Expect high temperatures to feel a lot like Monday’s, even a few degrees warmer in some spots. Afternoon storms will favor the southwest, south-central, north-central and northeast parts of the state. Isolated storms will be possible in the Albuquerqu-metro area, however, do not expect much in the way of extensive coverage. Higher elevations look to do better than the rest of us.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT: A strong cold front will begin its trek into the state from the northeast beginning late Tuesday afternoon. This front will pack in some significant moisture behind it while also kicking up the wind while it passes.

WEDNESDAY: Widespread to numerous showers and storms are likely for a good portion of the state Wednesday afternoon and evening. Stronger showers will pack in heavy rain meaning localized flooding will be of top concern with any developed storm. High temperatures will take a noticeable dip behind the front – most of us will be left with afternoon temps below average for this time of year.

THURSDAY: Another round of widespread showers and storms are likely over the northern half of the state. Afternoon temperatures will fall below average across the majority of NM – leaving most in the 70s and 80s.

After a week long monsoon slump we finally broken free Sunday night. Widespread rain left to up to 3/4″ on the valley floor. After a quiet day today storms once again will crank up on Tuesday through the end of the work week. Storms should begin over the mountains and roll into the valleys by the afternoon. With a cold front pushing through the state on Wednesday widespread storms now look likely.

The storm crop should stay robust through at least Thursday. We may even see a good crop of storms on Friday before high-pressure slides back in shutting down the moisture flow.

MONDAY: Temperatures will climb to or just above average this afternoon – leaving most of the state in the 80s and 90s (low triple digits over the Southeastern Plains). Spotty to scattered storms will favor the higher terrain of the Northern and Central Mountains – stretching from the southwest corner of the state to the northeast.

TUESDAY: A similar set-up will give way to another round of spotty to scattered storms stretching from southwest NM to the Northeastern Plains. Temperatures will be nearly identical to Monday with scorching temps in the 90s and low triple digits across southern NM (slightly cooler in the 80s and 90s further north).

WEDNESDAY: A strong cold front will make its way in from the northeast late Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will bring in gusty winds and cooler temps… but will also help replenish moisture over the state. This added moisture will help scattered to widespread storms fire up across a good portion of the state. High pressure sitting overhead will mean storm motion will be slow – we will have to watch for heavy rain causing localized flooding.

The storms we had tonight are losing their strength and it will be a quiet start heading out the door first thing on Monday. Drier air is going to start working in from the west and this will push the afternoon storm chances to the Central Mountain Chain and Eastern Plains. By the middle of the week, a cold front is going to replenish our moisture supply plus drop temps back below average. This front will give us a pretty good shot for scattered storms statewide by Wednesday and Thursday.

Moisture is going to be hard to come by again on Sunday and that will limit our storm coverage to the mountains. The rest of us will be feeling the hot temperatures on Sunday afternoon. Albuquerque along with others in central New Mexico will be feeling the 90s while the southeast climbs to the triple digits yet again. So if you’re heading out to enjoy the sun tomorrow, don’t forget the sunscreen, water and don’t leave the kids or pets in the cars. Storms will fire around the mountains in the afternoon and some could drift into valley locations with a small chance for a shower in Albuquerque. We could see a better shot for scattered storms statewide by the middle of the upcoming week when we are able to draw in more moisture.

The quiet monsoon flow over the state will continue on Saturday. Just spot showers are expected over mountain areas with most areas missing out. By Sunday and into next week the chance for storms will begin to increase. The combination of more moisture coming up from the south and a cold front from the east will help to add juice to the mix. In the metro area our best chance for showers looks like it will emerge by the middle of next week.

Moisture is limited to the mountains, so storms will be confined to the higher terrain again today. A high pressure system is pushing a bulk of the moisture farther to the west and heating up the state. The southeast will be feeling the triple digit heat once again while the metro heats up into the 90s. This high will be hanging out over the region for the weekend and storms will be spotty plus limited to the mountains again. The monsoon flow doesn’t look to kick into high gear until late next week.

FRIDAY: Afternoon temps will be 2-5 degrees warmer in most areas with majority of the state at or above average. Spotty to scattered storms are possible near the NM/AZ stateline and over the higher terrain late this afternoon into the evening hours. Coverage will still be very limited, but areas further north and west are favored.

SATURDAY: More spotty to scattered showers and storms are likely to fire up over western and northern NM once again. Lack of significant moisture will limit coverage. High temperatures will continue to climb – western and central NM warming into the 80s and 90s while majority of the Eastern Plains tops out in the 90s and low triple digits.

A very spotty monsoon flow will continue over the state through the weekend. The mountains will see most of the storm action but even that will just be scattered. Most valley areas like Albuquerque and out to the east will see just a slight chance of a shower.

The storm crop should increase next week with more moisture creeping in from the east.

We don’t have a lot of moisture to work with but some storms will still fire today especially around the mountains. Southern New Mexico will be favored once again for most of the storms this afternoon into the evening. As we head into the weekend, we try to draw more moisture in, but it is going to be pretty limited. So the best shot for storms over the coming downs will be around the mountains with only slim chances for a storm to drift into Albuquerque. Outside of the isolated storm chances, most areas will be sitting under partly sunny skies with pretty hot temperatures during the afternoon.

THURSDAY: Afternoon temperatures will be similar to Wednesday with most of the state well into the 70s, 80s and 90s. Spotty to scattered storms are likely across southern NM by late day with a few isolated storms possible over central and northern NM.

FRIDAY: Spotty storms will return to southern NM once again, however, storm coverage will continue to shrink as high pressure builds over the area.

The next 3 to 4 days will be relatively quiet storm wise. High pressure will build over New Mexico and limit the amount of moisture across the state. We will have to recycle the moisture we already have in place to form storms. The best chance for storms will be over mountain sections eventually drifting into the valleys. The chance for storms will increase next week as the high moves to our northwest.

WEDNESDAY: A quieter afternoon on tap compared to recent days. Afternoon temps will warm well into the 70s, 80s and 90s statewide – near average for the time of year. Storms will favor southern NM today with only a few spot storms possible further north. Sustained winds will stay light (5-15mph) out of the west-southwest.

THURSDAY: Afternoon temperatures will be nearly identical to Wednesday. However, as high pressure continues to edge in from the east, majority of the moisture that has been sitting over the state over the last few days will be pushed further west into Arizona. We’ll watch for a few spotty storms over far southern and western NM, but coverage will be limited.

New Mexico will see a break in the widespread storm activity over the next couple of days. The best chance for storms on Wednesday will be over southern New Mexico but even that storm possibility looks limited. By Thursday, isolated storms across the west will be our only activity. As we head into the weekend and next week, things will start to change a bit. High pressure, which will briefly set up over the state, will eventually shift to our northwest. That could lead to more widespread storms by next week.

TUESDAY: As monsoonal moisture sticks around, so do the storm chances. Spotty to widespread storms will return to the Northern Mountains and Eastern Plains (including the Sacramento Mountains) this afternoon. Isolated to spotty storms are possible over western and central NM but will not be as widespread as what was seen Monday afternoon. High temperatures will be nearly identical to yesterday – 70s and 80s over the higher terrain, 80s and 90s for lower elevations and 90s and low triple digits for the far southeastern corner of NM.

Enough moisture will remain in place over the next 24 to 48 hours to support more scattered showers. The best chance for storms will be over the northeast on Tuesday and over the southern portion of the state on Wednesday. Look for quieter weather Thursday and Friday as dryer holds over New Mexico and high-pressure sets up.

MONDAY: An active start to the new work week with scattered storms and showers likely across a good portion of the state today. A cold front crawling across the Northeast Plains will help strong (to possibly severe) storms & showers develop – main threats: heavy rain causing localized flooding and frequent lightning. Afternoon temperatures will be similar to what was felt over the weekend with highs at or just below normal for this time of year.

TUESDAY: Another day of scattered storms and showers is expected as moisture continues to stay in place over the state. Afternoon highs will once again climb near to just below average for this time in July.

WEDNESDAY: As high pressure starts to edge its way in, storm chances will start to dwindle while temperatures climb. Spotty storms will linger over the higher terrain, although, coverage will be limited.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: Drier and warmer conditions will settle in nearly statewide with afternoon temperatures at or just *above average.

More moisture is moving back east over New Mexico today and that will increase our storm chances for the second half of the weekend. Not everyone will see the rain, but we will have a better chance for hit and miss storms in central and western New Mexico this afternoon. The storms will continue to increase in coverage on Monday and Tuesday as a cold front rolls in for the beginning of the week. This front could produce storms that could dump heavy rain in parts of eastern NM causing concerns for flash flooding. By the middle of the week, drier air will work back into the state limiting our storm chances and heating things back up.

It was a down day for storms across most of New Mexico for Saturday, but don’t get used to the quieter weather. The storms will return and become more widespread for the second half of your weekend. Right now, the plume of moisture has been pushed farther to the west into Arizona. So that limited our storms to the higher terrain and in western New Mexico for this afternoon. This moisture will move back east over New Mexico for Sunday plus a cold front will bring even more energy and moisture for the state as we head into the coming days. Storms will become less numerous by the middle and latter portion of the week.

Widespread cloud cover today kept storms to a minimum. The cloud cover will slowly thin overnight and throughout the day on Saturday we will have scattered afternoon storms. In the metro area temps will top out in the high 80s. The best chance for storms will be across the northern mountains in the western portion of the state.

A little more moisture working for Sunday and Monday will help to fuel more afternoon storms. A cold front across the east will re-juice the atmosphere and allow for widespread thunderstorms to develop by Monday.

Spot light showers continue to track across central and southern New Mexico this afternoon. These showers will continue off and on throughout the afternoon, but don’t expect many of them to put down heavy rain. The bigger story today will be the clouds and the cooler temperatures for central and western NM where the light rain and clouds are today. But, temps will be much hotter in the Eastern Plains where there is drier air and more sunshine. This drier air will move farther to the west for the start of the weekend. This will push the moisture and best rain chances into Arizona for Saturday. By Sunday, the moisture moves back to the east into New Mexico plus a cold front will be moving into the eastern half of the state increasing our chances for storms as we close out the weekend and go into next week.

FRIDAY: Afternoon temperatures will climb to near-average across western and central NM (70s and 80s) while the Eastern Plains jumps back into the mid-90s to low triple digits. Storms will favor western and southern NM with heavy rain possible over the higher elevations. Storm coverage will be spotty to isolated further north into central New Mexico.

SATURDAY: Monsoonal moisture will push further west with the bulk of the activity flowing into Arizona. It is likely that far western NM will see a few spotty storms – more favorable chances will be found near the AZ/NM stateline. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler over the western half of the state (70s and 80s) while the Eastern Plains continues to bake (90s and low triple digits).

SUNDAY: Moisture will edge further east back into the state allowing spotty to scattered showers to develop once again over western NM. A cold front will begin it’s trek into the state from the northeast Sunday into Monday, allowing significant rain chances to climb over the Eastern Plains.

A relatively thin monsoon flow will continue to work through the state over the next couple days. This will lead to isolated storms in central and western New Mexico.

The best chance for heavier rain will be over the Gila Wilderness. Moisture will begin to increase across the state by Sunday. Not only will we see the remnants of Dolores but will also get a backdoor cold front. This will lead to more widespread storms next week.

Another round of hit and miss storms are likely this afternoon as we continue to draw in moisture. Central and western New Mexico will be favored for the storms this afternoon and into the evening. Not everyone will see the rain but the chances will increase by late afternoon into the early evening. An area of high pressure continues to hang out just to our east over Texas. This will push a little farther west as we head into Saturday and the high will push the moisture supply farther west into Arizona. The high will then limit our storm chances to far western New Mexico for the start of the weekend. By Sunday, the moisture start to move back into central and western New Mexico. This will bring a better shot for scattered storms. So if you have outdoor plans this weekend, it looks like Saturday would be the better of the two days.

THURSDAY: Significant cloud cover continues to creep in over southern New Mexico this morning with a few pockets of sprinkles in the mix. Afternoon temperatures will be very similar to what was felt Wednesday with most of western and central NM in the 70s and 80s – eastern NM will be warmer in the 90s. Spotty storms will develop over western and northern NM by late day – stretching from southwest to northeast. The majority of developed storms will dissipate overnight.

FRIDAY: Temperatures will stay near average for most of the state with a few less storms expected to finish off the week. Despite the decrease in coverage, a handful of storms is still expected to develop over western NM.

WEEKEND: Another influx of moisture streaming in from the south will help boost rain chances across western and central NM – scattered showers and storms possible both Saturday and Sunday, particularly over western NM. Temperatures will be at or just below average in most areas.

The monsoon flow will continue over New Mexico through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. Although we won’t see widespread storms in any one area scattered storms are likely. Here in the metro area we’re looking at about 20% chance of showers the next couple of days and then that starts to inch up into the weekend.

The remnants of Dolores were mainly stay to our west by Saturday and Sunday. However, we could see at least some increase in moisture thanks to those remnants. Looking into next week another backdoor cold front comes in and brings some more juice and storms.