Let Me Be Very Clear Here

June 18, 2017–President Trump’s lawyers are running around today making all kinds of noise about “the president is not being investigated” for obstruction of justice. One of them, Jay Sekulow, then takes it back, telling Fox News that he can’t be absolutely sure because he can’t read the mind of Robert S. Mueller, the special counsel. Let me be very clear here. There are at least three reasons to suppose that Donald J. Trump is under investigation for that very thing.

First, Mr. Trump has said so. You may like Trump’s practice of tweeting or not. But– the way these recent tweets have been handled by associates–let’s call them the “investigation tweets”–is very interesting. White House spin doctors in the past have almost uniformly commented that the tweets stand on their own. In the case of the investigation tweets, however, they have tried to walk them back, alleging Trump to have been recycling things he heard elsewhere.

Second, is “subject of investigation” notice. The lawyers have been saying Mr. Trump has received no such notice. I have also heard there is no requirement the FBI give such a notice. I’m not sure that is true. But whether or not it is, as an investigative branch of the federal government it seems to me almost certain that, as a courtesy, the FBI would give such a notice to the chief executive of the United States. Since Mr. Trump personally adverted he is under investigation, that seems to lend weight to the original reading of the investigation tweets.

Third is the line-up of witnesses Special Counsel Mueller is preparing to interview. Dan Coats is of no interest as a figure in the Russia Caper. He is only important to investigators in the context of an obstruction inquiry. Mike Rogers of the NSA may be of some interest in the Russian affair in search of what the codebreaking agency had learned of Moscow’s activities during the period of the election. But Rogers has been specifically placed in the president’s office, and as having been telephoned by the president, in connection with the alleged obstruction. Mueller’s cast of characters makes the most sense in the context of an obstruction investigation.

The really interesting question is why President Trump’s lawyers should want to muddy the waters in this fashion. Think on that for a while.