Tax hikes would only put a further strain on people’s wallets, their job prospects and the economy.

Illinois Senate Democrats recently passed an income tax hike that would raise the individual rate to nearly 5 percent. This tax hike would hit Illinoisans’ wallets and further weaken the state’s economy.

But the negative effect of the tax hike wouldn’t end there. Such a tax hike would also open the door to a progressive tax hike pitch from any candidate for governor.

A progressive tax structure would allow politicians to tax personal incomes at increasingly higher rates. An Illinois lawmaker pitched such a plan in 2013 that would have imposed a 4 percent rate on anyone earning just $18,000 a year, with rates going all the way up to 9 percent for top earners. Middle-class earners would have faced rates of 5-7 percent.

Residents of Illinois are already struggling with the nation’s highest property taxes and one of the weakest economies in the nation. Tax hikes would only put a further strain on people’s wallets, their job prospects and the economy.

And an influx of revenues would relieve the pressure for reforms to Illinois’ structural problems, just as the additional $32 billion taxpayers forked over during the 2011-2014 tax hike allowed politicians to put off necessary reforms.

But the bigger danger is that an income tax hike to 5 percent makes a call for a progressive tax system during the 2018 gubernatorial race a much easier sell. That’s because the legislature would already have done the dirty work of raising taxes.

All a gubernatorial candidate would have to do is run on changing the tax rate – lowering it for most, but promising to raise it on the rich.

For example, a candidate can promise a tax rate below 5 percent for Illinoisans making less than $100,000, giving 80 percent of Illinoisans a tax break. Then, to make up for the revenue loss, politicians can hike taxes on the “rich” through increasingly higher rates above 5 percent. California’s highest tax bracket, for example, is at 13.3 percent.

But a progressive candidate’s math only works out if income taxes have already gone up – as they would under the Senate Democrats’ income tax hike.

In contrast, if Illinois’ rate remains at a flat 3.75 percent, politicians can’t easily raise billions in new tax revenues and at the same time promise a tax cut to most through a progressive tax plan.

Some will correctly argue that a progressive tax can’t pass without a constitutional amendment, and the soonest it can happen is after the 2018 election.

But that won’t matter on the campaign trail. All a progressive-tax candidate has to do is run on it. And promise it. And it’ll be hard for most Illinoisans – already overtaxed – to reject this proposal for the mistake it is.