Rays May Be Willing To Trade Shields

The Rays are suggesting to other teams that they will listen to trade offers for right-hander James Shields, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports. Rival teams have heard that the Rays intend to decide on a course of action after their upcoming home series against the Indians and Mariners, Knobler writes.

The Rays, now 46-43, have told teams they still expect to contend for the playoffs this year. The Tigers could have interest in Shields, Knobler suggests. Opposing scouts believe Shields has become frustrated and would pitch better in another environment, according to Knobler.

There’s no doubt that many teams would have interest in Shields given his age, durability and contract status. The 30-year-old earns $7MM in 2012 and his contract includes club options for 2013 ($9MM with a $1.5MM buyout) and 2014 ($12MM with a $1MM buyout). Shields, the third-place finisher in last year's AL Cy Young voting, has completed at least 200 innings in every one of his five full seasons. He has a 4.44 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 123 2/3 innings so far in 2012.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently discussed trade candidates who could eventually be tied to draft pick compensation. Shields could net a compensatory draft choice following a trade, as long as the acquiring team exercises his 2013 option. For more on potentially available starting pitchers click here.

While I’m glad we traded for Latos over Shields, I will say that if we offered TB the same package and they declined, they have to be kicking theirselves right now. Grandal and Alonso would for sure be a boost for them offensively.

His ERA has been inconsistent, but he’s very consistent if you look at his DIPs stats. Over the past six years, other than last year’s 3.42, his FIP has been between 3.82-4.24 and he has thrown 200+ innings every season.

He isn’t nearly as inconsistent as his ERA would suggest, but he’s hardly one of the more consistent guys around. His xFIP has swung 75 points, his FIP and SIERA have both swung ~100 points, his BB/9 has swung more than a full walk, and his K/9 has swung more than 1.5 Ks.

And Verlander’s has swung 158 points. Take the last 3 years of Shields and you have 3.55, 3.25, and this year 3.47. Walks are up a little, but so are his strikeouts. Ground balls are way up and he’s been a little unlucky on balls in play given that his line drive rate is within his career norms. Just check out the metrics on the TB infield defense. Other than Pena, brutal.

I don’t know what Verlander has to do with anything, first of all. And I never said he was inconsistent (in fact, I specifically said he wasn’t nearly as inconsistent as his ERA would suggest), he’s just not one of the more consistent guys around. His peripherals aren’t any less consistent than the next guys, but they aren’t really any more consistent either, he’s just “normal.”

The “more consistent guys” would be guys like Sabathia whose FIP, xFIP, and SIERA have all only fluctuated ~50 points over the last 7 years.

Given there need for 1B and C, how about a trade to Atlanta including catcher Chris Bethancourt or a trade to Anaheim including 1B C.J Cron or a guy like Jean Segura. This also probably means they will be willing to shop around B.J Upton.

Great point. A ton of people say he won’t net much of a return compared to last year which is 100% true, but this guy is AL East proven, 2+ years of control for a fair amount of money, and like you said his numbers will improve pitching in the NL facing a pitcher. I think he is a good fit for Atlanta given there starting pitching needs.

If the Jays offer the Rays what they need, they won’t care about trading in their division. If the Jays were willing to trade Halladay in their own division, I am sure the Rays can part with Shields. JPA and Adam Lind.

i think the rays ought to hold on to james shields. they will eventually overtake the orioles and be one of the wild card teams at the end of the season. they might be having a tough tme now,but i think they will right their ship.

This time last year most rational baseball fans and insiders would have known the Rays could’ve got a kings ransom for Shields. They instead hold on him and 12 months later are going to get a small fraction in return.
Andrew Friedman is, imo, the best GM in baseball but he really dropped the ball with this one.

His value was very very high last season, was there a chance he could improve on that, but what are the chances of it happening. Instead he regressed and lost that value. Hindsight may be 20/20, but at some point you have to realize that it’s going to be very difficult to beat that years stat line.

I don’t think anyone in their right mind (and Friedman is by all accounts in his right mind) expected Shields to repeat last year’s performance.

What he was expecting, in my opinion, is for the Rays to field one of the best teams they have ever had this season, and make a real shot at winning another pennant and getting to the WS. Having even half of what Shields was last season should have been a huge factor in that push, but all of the unexpected injuries and general stroke of bad luck has derailed that plan to some extent.

Tigers: Turner, Brantly and a low-level guy would probably get it done. Dare I say Porcello could be offered instead of Turner? As a Tigers fan I would be OK with this. Always a big fan of Shields. Contract looks manageable for a #2 type guy.

If that were what it’d take, I’d jump in on that in a heartbeat.
Don’t get me wrong, I still think Porcello/Turner are going to grow into 2-3 type pitchers. Solid middle of the rotation guys. But if I could get Shields behind JV and in front of Fister/Smyly/Scherzer. All day. It’d be a scary rotation

It’d be tough because I don’t think they’d include Taveras or Wong for different reasons. They would probably include Miller this year, but that’s probably selling low on a very young pitcher who is still striking out a lot of people at a level he’s even a little young for. Cox is expendable, but they have Longoria so not sure they’d be interested in him.

I would do something like Shelby Miller, Matt Adams, and Jordan Swagerty….really don’t know how close that would be.

Edit: Looking again, I doubt that’d be enough. maybe add in a live bullpen arm like Sanchez

I don’t think this will be enough and Detroit will probably
have to add some B- type prospects or switch out Castellanos for Turner.
I know Tiger fans don’t want to hear that, but we’ve already seen the market
for TOR, cost controlled SP. Oakland received 3 top 100 prospects for Gio
Gonzalez. Cleveland and San Diego each received 2 top 50 prospects for
Ubaldo Jimenez and Mat Latos. The Rays
received two top 100 prospects plus for Matt Garza and James Shields will
receive a similar type of return. I think
it will take either 2 top 100 prospects plus some lower guys or a stud, top 20
type of prospect plus a C+ guy like Brantley to make it happen.

Hmm, this is interesting, considering there are two kind of darkhorse teams that I think will try and pick up Shields considering they have what the Rays want: a decent MLB ready catcher, and that of course is the Rangers and Mariners. Not so sure if the M’s will go for it considering they are not going to be in the run for the playoffs, but Shields would give them a strong chip for a team that could easily be ready by next year, and easy trade bait is Olivio (or however he wants his named spelled) and maybe a few other B- prospects that the M’s seems to not want to really use in AAA. And I could see the Rangers easily trading Torrealba and maybe Kirkman or some okay prospects in AA or AAA, instead of going after Hamels and Grienke. Dunno, but this might be interesting.

Just don’t worry about the deals here. Friedman will get the deal he wants, and if not, the Rays keep him and wait next year. They are more likely to shop Upton this year, but if the Rays are serious about contending this year, they should trade Shields for major league level catching and shortstops, and maybe 1-2 prospects. Their system is already loaded.

Garza or Shields as a Tigs fan would be fantastic. The issue is that they will likely not be able to hold one of Porcello/Scherzer after 2013 due to rising costs…so do you hold onto Turner and backfill Porcello? Or does Illitch say ‘I’m 82 and I wanna win” and do something like Turner and Brantley…Brantley won’t be a 30 HR guy but he’s a good hitter with some pop…Lucroy/Doumit type w/o the injury issues….Go get em DD!

Adams is expendable in my opinion because Craig is the long term plan for 1st and hopefully Taveras will be ready to go after the expiring contract of beltran. With no other position Adams makes sense to trade…in particular to an AL team where he can DH.

In this scenario, Jenkins definitely isn’t a throw-in. Including Adams, Jenkins has the most upside of anyone being offered. You have to give something to get something and I believe that it will take at least two chips to get the relatively cost-controlled guy like Shields. I also agree that the Rays would much rather have Hill than Anderson, but neither project well and the Rays may just leave a catching prospect out all together. Maybe Adams, Jenkins, Paulino, and a change of scenery for Tyler Greene for Shields and Joel Peralta?

I would do that in a second. That’s probably what Texas’ first offer would look like. Tampa would counter with Moreland, Perez, and Alfaro and if a deal would get done it would be somewhere in the middle.