Newspoll: 60-40 to LNP in Queensland

The first Queensland state Newspoll since the election delivers remarkably strong figures for Campbell Newman's government, although the three-month survey period raises questions about their currency.

Share

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has published its first result of state voting intention in Queensland since the election. This has the LNP with a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 48% for the LNP, 30% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Remarkably, this concurs in every respect with Galaxy poll published a month ago, and represents only a modest gain for Labor off an election result of 62.8-37.2, with the LNP’s primary vote only slightly lower than an election result of 49.8%. The Labor vote is also higher than a 26.7% result at the election, with the slack presumably coming off Katter’s Australian Party, which polled 11.5% at the election but for which no result from Newspoll is yet available (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates the poll has it at an enormously implausible 1%). The poll has the Greens at 9%, compared with 7.4% at the election.

The commonality between Newspoll and Galaxy ends at Campbell Newman’s personal ratings: Newspoll has his approval at 47% and his disapproval at 38%, which compares with 44% and 49% from Galaxy. The numbers are in fact slightly better for Newman than the 47% and 40% he recorded in the final pre-election Newspoll. Annastacia Palaszczuk has done correspondingly worse out of Newspoll, with 29% approval and 30% disapproval compared with 36% and 28% from Galaxy. Newman leads Palaszczuk 55-21 as preferred premier.

A note of qualification should be added that this poll is presumably derived from surveying conducted over a three-month period from July to September, during which much occurred in Queensland politics. Were a short-range phone poll such as Galaxy’s to be conducted, it might well produce a different and more current result.

Share this article

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

24 comments

Gillard government picking-up more pieces of the destructive Newman government with the announcement that will provide funding to the axed tenant advice and advocacy program | http://bit.ly/OCcE63 Qld tenants just won the social justice grand final with Gillard kicking the winning goal. Woo-hoo.

How two pollsters showing identical results can deliver two completely different accounts of voter behaviour – why timeliness matters if you want to avoid bad analysis

Today we see a Qld State-based Newspoll released by The Australian, accompanied by the usual bad analysis across the media spectrum that’s come to be a bedrock of the Australian political scene.]
Worth reading

[Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics
This explains the Qld Newspoll – taken over 3 months vs other polls. The same result http://yfrog.com/h0cm5aup #qldpol
8:03 AM – 1 Oct 12]
Possum has done a quick chart. As suspected, the newspoll overall result for the quarter is right, but that doesn’t mean the is doing LNP quite as well right now, as Reachtel shows.

That Katter’s Australian Party result seems unbelievable. They got 9.5% on Reachtel on 14 Sept, and 7% on a Galaxy poll in August. Do Newspoll do their samples for these quarterly polls at the same time as tehy are polling national polls? Wouldn’t think that should affect the result though.

I suspect this is a case of the vocal minority making headlines (the public servants and the Newman critics) and the simple fact that no one is offering an alternative. There needs to be a credible alternative eg don’t cut the jobs, increase mining taxes or don’t cut the jobs, delay xxx.

We have public servants in NSW and QLD who are in their 30’s who have spent almost all their working life under Labor and I don’t think they know how to mount an effective campaign to win the voters.