COMMENTARY

China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, have hoped to counter U.S. military pressures and economic sanctions in an effort to overstretch U.S. political-military and financial capabilities across the world through both symmetrical and asymmetrical military measures and...

Slightly more than a year passed over start of retired General Khalifa Haftar’s attack on the Libyan capital, Tripoli. It was on April 4, 2019 exactly, a time when Libyans were awaiting the holding of the Libyan Forum on April 14, 2019 in the city of Ghadames as a...

China is gradually turning into a country that closes the shutters. There is a giant in front of us and walls grow in front of it as it grows. We will not be able to see what is happening behind the wall; there is not much left, except for a tiny ray leaking out. Just...

Background In September 2015, the Poseidon program became public for the first time, when the Russian state television "accidentally" showed a picture of Poseidon, nuclear-powered submarine drone, also known as unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) or autonomous...

The 9/11 attacks redefined the global security context on terrorism and targeted violence. Similarly, COVID- 19 causes us to reconsider what composes a security threat. In the evolving security environment, it is essential to look beyond current realities and timely...

April 20th, 2020, was a historic and shocking day for oil investors as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) went below zero for the first time in history. This more-to-follow crisis was highly expected as indicated in my previous commentary. It’s a common view among not only...

Chinese scholars have always considered the EU to be destined for destruction; while considering NATO to be unnecessary. According to them the biggest problem of the EU is its failure to achieve political unification. On the other hand, conditions during the cold war,...

Though easy to treat in existence of adequate health care system and medications, the cholera has been raging Yemen. The cumulative number of suspected cholera cases reported from October 2016 to January 2020 is more than 2 million, including 3910 related deaths. To...

My two cents will not tell you about the human trials for the Corona virus vaccine or the timeline for the global immunization, and how many times you have to wash your hands daily. My guidance does not include foot-shaking or the type of the hand-gel you are...

Corona virus has started affecting a large extent aspect of our lives, particularly in social and economic fields, of which this unprecedentedly fast-spreading novel virus seems to surge dramatically and worsen the situation for unpredictable amount of time. Yet,...

China’s Use of Crises To Deepen and Extend Power and Influence In Europe and the World. Standing in solidarity with countries in Europe and elsewhere in the fight against COVID-19China scores a diplomatic coup and extends its claim to global leadership. Overview In...

The whole world is trying to find out how to fight against the new coronavirus. The level of anxiety increases as the virus' spreading speed increases. As Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, stated humanity is facing the biggest disaster since World War II. Curfews are...

The world woke up to the outbreak of COVID-19 or coronavirus as often called by the general public in December 2019. The initial perception that it would be contained within borders of China where it was first spotted fell apart as the virus further spread to Europe...

Coronavirus disease spreads all over the world. China, as the birthplace of the disease, has been taken dozens of precautions from December 2019 on. Outside Asia, Italy has been the most severely impacted place by coronavirus. There are 35,713 confirmed cases as of...

Beyond the Horizon ISSG and Horizon Global Academy (HGA), like other international organizations, are closely monitoring the COVID-19 outbreak and has taken preventative measures. We welcome the leading efforts of the World Health Organization and Belgian Health...

Recent Developments Russia is developing six “NextGen” missile systems; however, some of them are currently suffering from "childhood illnesses". One of those is Tsirkon (3M22 Zirkon) according to the Chief Admiral of Russian Navy. Admiral Nikolai Evmenov,...

Several weeks ago, the Syrian regime decided to take one of the last holdouts of the rebels, in Idlib. The area is right at the border with Turkey, and after the Sochi agreement, Turkey has a military presence there in the form of several observation posts, ensuring...

Terrorist groups always strive to outmaneuver counter-terrorism agencies with different tactics and strategies for making successful attacks. Therefore, understanding unexpected attacks is becoming more and more important. Studying such attacks will help identify the...

February 29, 2020 is marked as one of the most important dates in the recent history of Afghanistan. After two decades of turmoil that claimed the lives of approximately 157,000 people (of more than 43,000 are civilians and 4,000 are coalition soldiers (nearly 2,500...

The reemergence of the Canal Istanbul project brought some discussions on the Montreux Straits Convention on the agenda. The Treaty of Lausanne and Montreux Straits Convention were proof of the existence of the newly established Republic of Turkey and are a symbol of...

1. Background On 1 March 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his speech to the Federal Parliament, gave an overview of the development status of several "new generation" strategic weapon systems specifically designed to escape U.S. missile defense systems. He...

Prime Minister Hassan Diab government has finally won the parliament’s confidence vote this Tuesday, with one of the lowest scores in the modern history of Lebanon, managing only 63 votes out of 128. The day witnessed massive popular protests, that tried to derail the...

56th Munich Security Conference (MSC) took place between 14-16 February 2020. Regarded as Davos of foreign and security policy circles, MSC serves as a platform to exchange ideas for high-profile decision-makers all over the world. Traditionally, a report is published...

Afghanistan is struck by severe armed violence and political impasse. Peace talks are seemingly going nowhere, circling around requests for; a reduction in violence by the U.S. (which has never happened), a peace deal between the U.S. and the Taliban before Taliban...

First, I will focus on the changes in meaning of borders for China and its political stance throughout the history. Then I will mention China’s approach to the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). Neighborhood Policy in a way relates to a geopolitical border concept....

Blockchain technology began to occupy public agenda with the expansion of crypto coins as an investment and payment method. Blockchain, which has the support of smart contracts as well as mathematical algorithms, is speculated to have great potential in many areas...

Background The Russian Defense Ministry stated that at least two service members were killed and four injured on 08 August 2019 following the blast at a testing ground on the northern coastline of Russia. On 12 August, the...

Merkel highlighted two main results of the Berlin Conference; the first one is continuation of a fragile truce, which could turn into a permanent cease-fire through military committee negotiations of the warring factions and the second one is the re-commitment of the...

Possibility of Turkish military intervention caused an increase in the external military support to Haftar. Despite his powerful words and Parliamentary approval to troop deployment plans, Erdogan is not able to send a decisive force to back GNA side. On the other...

Never-ending tension in the Middle East escalated once again when the U.S. killed a crucial Iranian military figure, Qasem Soleimani, in Iraq months before the U.S. presidential election. Soleimani’s death, of course, outraged the Iranian government, not only because...

Thank you very much for having me via video-link. Congratulations to the friends at Beyond the Horizon for mounting this impressive conference. I apologise for not being able to join you in person and would like to thank the organisers for allowing me to beam in from...

A qaytusha attack killed one US contractor on an Iraqi base in Kirkuk on 27 December. To reciprocate, the US bombed three sites in Iraq and Syria belonging of Kataib Hezbollah, a designated terrorist group which US holds responsible. As retaliation to this US action...

The matter of the possible ‘closure’ of the Incirlik base, which has always been on the agenda in every turbulent period in Turkish-American relations, has come up once again in the previous days. This time, the new turbulent period started with the Turkish...

Background In the last couple of weeks, we have been witnessing the most active times of the Libya crisis According to news coming from front lines, defenders of the Tripoli are in dire straits in the eye of Haftar’s LNA. Increased Russian interference; US reactions...

When Turkey, while it was a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in 2010, voted “NO” to the resolution to impose sanctions on Iran, western media brought the discussion about Turkey changing its axis, once again. Such talks were outtalked...

In spite the geopolitical escalation and fiery rhetoric between the West and Iran in recent weeks, there are indications that lines of communications remain active with some hope of a window of opportunity opening to a new phase of negotiations and some sort of...

This week —thanks to superior air support and Russian mercenaries— Haftar’s LNA succeeded in gaining more ground in its endeavor to capture capital Tripoli. Witnessing significant impact of direct involvement of Russian fighters and weapons in the battlefield, the GNA...

The U.S has many times voiced concerns over the Europeans' will to develop a strategic autonomy in recent years. Arguably, the different defence initiatives the EU is undertaking could undermine NATO’s strength by creating duplications and discrimination between...

I have studied computer science and developed in the area of artificial intelligence and since then pursuing my research with an emphasis on creating support technology and specifically the support of decision making. To a large extend, my aim is to form a debate in...

I will reflect on the role of the private sector in future transatlantic defence cooperation. It is often stated that emerging technologies are especially pioneered by the private sector. The private sector makes up an increasing share in global R&D spending and...

The President of the United States of America (USA) Donald Trump has said that he wants to buy Greenland Island. This request surprised both the autonomous administration of Greenland and Denmark. Upon the reactions from both sides, Trump canceled the official visit...

We had a lot of development on defense over the last two years. In 2016, the security environment changed, the strategic context was changed and of course the political context with Brexit was changed. It was like the perfect storm and it came together around the...

Thank you very much. I have to say that I will not provide an institutional point of view from the European Parliament but a research point of view. When I was asked to speak about the implications of PESCO for the transatlantic defence industry, my first reaction was...

The conference on Transatlantic defence cooperation, organised by Beyond the Horizon, on October 22nd, was a useful and welcome preparatory event before the new Commission will present shortly its programme. This programme is eagerly waited for, as Europe finds itself...

All predictions are based on trend analysis: What countries or companies are researching, or working on at the time. But we should always remember for the future is not the end of the trend line. Why? Well, to begin with, we made the mistake of writing histories of...

Ladies and gentlemen, Excellencies, let me first thank the organizer, Beyond the Horizon, for inviting me today. It is indeed a real honour and a great pleasure for me as a representative of Belgian Foreign Affairs to address you today at this summit. Indeed, as you...

Thank you for inviting. I'm here on behalf of AmCham EU and I think this is really a wonderful forum with a lot of diversity of thought and analysts. It's been a very robust conversation and I'm happy to support industry's perspective. I don’t want to repeat what has...

Presently, the European Defence Fund is not yet a reality but there are two pilot programmes that are already up and running. First, I would like to take a step back and qualify the impression that, I think, is emanating from previous information: to some extent the...

First, thanks to the organizers for this excellent event and inviting the American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (AmCham EU). So, today, at this event, I am representing AmCham EU. I am also Acting Chairman of the NATO Industrial Advisory Group (NIAG). I...

Although the main objective of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) is to re-establish a Southern Arab State, Yemeni President Abdu Rabbuh Mansour Hadi tweeted shortly before the agreement, conveying the message that they have worked diligently to give the Southern...

Let me start by noting that after 25 years as a U.S. Diplomat and 12 years teaching at Cranfield University, mostly at the UK Defence Academy, I know you are only going to take away one thing that I say in the course of this entire presentation. I always start out...

Dear ambassadors, generals, distinguished guests! On behalf of the New Horizons Community, it is my great pleasure to welcome you to New Horizons Summit 2019, Future of the Transatlantic Defence Cooperation organized by Beyond the Horizon ISSG, one of the major think...

It would be fair to split the context in three points: Transatlantic relations and historical periodicity Official NATO declarations often imply that there is something eternal and automatic, and of course something inherently benign, about the Euro-American Alliance....

Introduction As other countries are also working on next-generation missiles, China is pursuing a long-term strategy in order to build strategic technologies and bridging the capacity gap with the West, following Russia’s approach. Currently, the most powerful...

The Report of the Amnesty International (AI) published this week is the first public investigation of the war crimes committed since the Haftar’s offensive upon Tripoli on 4 April. There were some United Nations investigations conducted by experts on some particular...

Eight years ago, on 20 October, Moammar Gaddafi was captured and killed in his hometown Sirte and buried to an unknown grave. Since his death, Libyans have been waiting for their dreams to come true. Developments of last week are not promising though, indicating that...

Introduction Technological developments are critical for the robust national defense industry, which is deemed an essential element of national security. The Chinese military has unveiled a new hypersonic ballistic nuclear missile that could violate all existing...

Yemen is overlooking the Strait of Bab al-Mandab and ranks 29th in the world in terms of oil reserves. Yemen is also overlooking two seas for two thousand kilometers and shares its border with the rich Gulf countries. With all these facts, Yemen will become the...

On September 25, China launched its first type-075-class Land Helicopter Dock. Following this event, a notable amount of coverage has been generated over the last weeks. Many experts and columnists may have over-emphasized the role of China’s new vessel regarding a...

Preparations and developments related to the upcoming Libya Conference in Germany are dominating the discussions on the Libya crisis. Mediators are working hard to manage the expectations to avoid disappointment at the end of the conference. Main discussion point will...

-Turkish Operation Peace Spring continues in full swing amid fierce criticism from international community and contradictory statements by different U.S. officials. However, there is no substance beyond ostentatious remarks or statements. Because, parties to the...

Introduction The increasing rate of disintegration of liberal world order and emerging security challenges gaining vigour due to this deficiency has resulted in self-questioning on either side of the Atlantic. Politically, the debate about famous three Ds...

Ahead of a new international Libya Conference, the one evident thing is that both GNA and LNA propaganda machines try hard to persuade international community that they have the upper hand in the battlefield. The operations rooms of both sides frame the developments...

Following the G7 summit and statements of UN special envoy Ghassan Salame, major international actors were expected to come together to end the protracted civil war and initiate a new peace process in Libya. The 74th Assembly of the United Nations was the perfect...

In recent years Europeans have made important steps forward – PESCO, CARD, European Defence Fund – in developing a more unified and coherent European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). In an era characterized by strategic uncertainty, the EU is willing...

Background On August 10th, the Aviadarts 2019 international competition as part of the International Army Games 2019 took place at the Dubrovichi testing range in the Ryazan Region, Russia. In particular, Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic missile debuted at the...

Disruptive technologies are constantly changing the way we fight. The fast pace of technological change is making it hard for the militaries to keep up. In his seminal article “The New Revolution in Military Affairs,” Christian Brose predicts that emerging...

Repercussions of the attacks on Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais on September 14 still keep global agenda busy. The attacks that caused highest rise in crude oil prices in one day and took down 5 percent of global production still continues to be a matter of...

Almost six months has elapsed since start of Haftar’s Tripoli offensive, an initiative that has costed thousands their lives and made many more displaced. Setting out with great promises, Haftar’s LNA has so far suffered major setbacks to include one of the biggest...

Trump abruptly called off peace negotiations with the Taliban on Saturday (7 Sep 2019) after the Kabul suicide bomber attack on Thursday (5 Sep 2019). The attack that was claimed by the Taliban took the lives of 12 people including one American soldier. The United...

There was no surprise in what happened in Aden. Since the beginning of the transitional period, the Yemeni elites and their parties have dealt with the Yemeni situation without imagination, and in the same traditional ways of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh....

Introduction On 16 August, North Korea fired two missiles into the waters off its east coast. According to US and South Korean officials the two were short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM). They flew approximately 142 miles at a maximum altitude of 18.6 miles and top...

Background The office of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov announced on 02 Jul 2019 that the production of Avangard hypersonic gliding vehicle (HGV) was proceeding as scheduled. Moscow refuted US media reports which suggested Russia could not produce...

Guided missiles are still one of the most strategic, destructive and powerful weapons for the above water warfare. For decades, scientists and engineers try to develop most skilful missile in order to catch the target from the weakest point. When one produced a...

This week was an especially bloody one for Yemen. The Houthi, ISIL and Al Qaeda attacks in a fashion outbidding each other killed more than a hundred and left many others in critical condition in hospitals. If we have to focus on the factual aspect of the events: a....

Background The UAE decision to draw down troops in Yemen has been on the agenda of international spectators since 22 June. In an article reflecting her consultations with Emirati officials, Elena DeLozier formulated the content of the drawdown as: Emirati units are...

While the armed conflict in and around capital Tripoli escalate to a full-blown civil war destroying the physical and social infrastructure of Libya and making a democratic and peaceful Libya a more elusive vision, Beyond the Horizon ISSG had a chance to take a closer...

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty had its origins in the Euromissile crisis of the mid-1970s when the Soviet Union had deployed newly-developed SS-20 intermediate-range missiles, replacing older intermediate-range SS-4 and SS-5 missiles. The...

It was clear from the outset that this month’s Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) would be one of the longest as stated by the High Representative/Vice President (HR/VP) Federica Mogherini. The agenda was full, including controversial items like Joint Comprehensive Plan of...

If the news from Doha is true, peace is closer than ever. At 29 Jun 2019, the U.S. and the Taliban came together for the seventh round of discussions which will hopefully bring an end to the 18-year-long war between U.S.-led coalition and the Taliban. According to the...

Already strained relations between LNA and Turkish Government gradually escalated to an open hostility after statements and actions from both sides since Friday. This means a new crisis in the MENA, which is already on tenterhooks with current Iran-USA tension. As a...

Fatih Celenay*, Onur Sultan** Introduction International society has been watching a duel of words and actions between Iran and US since May 2018 when President Trump declared the US would unilaterally withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or...

Nearly six months since the so-called Stockholm agreement was signed by Yemen’s warring parties in an effort to prevent a deepening humanitarian crisis, any semblance of progress is almost dead. The agreement, signed on Dec. 13, stipulates the redeployment of forces...

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is worth preserving and expanding. In August, the landmark Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between Russia and the United States will terminate unless both sides can resolve their differences over the...

NATO responded to Russian intervention in Ukraine by launching several initiatives in multiple domains. One of them is the NATO Readiness Initiative. As part of a broad deterrence and defence related measures, Allies will make available ‘additional 30 major naval...

The anti-United Nations campaign - and talk about its dubious role in Yemen - has become increasingly popular recently. This coincides with claims of conspiracy, a rhetoric mostly used by the helpless party in an indirect attempt to justify self-insufficiency. Calls...

Yemen’s Houthi rebels are not just Iran’s proxies On May 14, Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen launched multiple drone strikes against Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities. These drone strikes targeted a major oil pipeline located just west of Riyadh and sparked fears of...

The rivalry between British and Russian Empires over the control of Afghanistan named as “the Great Game”. Some 190 years after, Afghan soil witnesses a similar “game” being played by global and regional actors. This landlocked country, lying at the centre of the...

The transatlantic security and defense debate has been challenged by a recurring paradox over the past decade: Europeans are expected to take on more responsibility for their own defense and step up their defense investment, yet there is still an expectation from the...

According to Montreux Convention, Black Sea littoral states have the right to use the Turkish Straits if the submarines have been constructed, purchased or sent for repair outside Black Sea with the stipulation that they inform Turkey in advance. In the case of...

Anne Speckhard* & Ardian Shajkovci** The sound of an explosion echoed through the Green Zone on Sunday (May 19, 2019) night around 9:00 p.m., a reminder that this most secure part of the Iraqi capital is not, in fact, all that safe. The projectile appears...

Despite calls from the US, the EU, and Egypt, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that in addition to the Fatih drill ship, which is currently in the west of Cyprus, Yavuz drillship would be sent to the region. He declared that Turkey had...

Three days after the presidential elections in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decision to grant Russian passport to the separatist Ukrainians in Donetsk and Luhansk in the east of this country. Former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has...

On 2 May 2019, an article with the subject “A Real Plan to End the War in Yemen” was published in Foreign Affairs. The article is purposeful and well-written in terms of clarity of the arguments and got quite positive feedbacks from those following the crisis....

As Haftar’s offensive toward Tripoli stalled, the conflict does not cease to reproduce itself in other realms or dimensions. This week, Haftar and his international backers increased their level of engagement in propaganda to dominate or shift opinion in favor of...

General Khalifa Haftar, the military commander of the loosely affiliated Libyan National Army (LNA), a militia that receives military support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and Egypt, has engaged with the world’s top leaders in...

Introduction Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, began transitioning to democracy after fall of Suharto in 1998. Immediately after the event, Indonesia witnessed the rise of radical militant Islamic factions. Many security and military experts...

Background On 29 April 2019, al-Furqan Media Center of Daesh posted a 18.22 minute video with the name: “In the Hospitality of the Emir of the Believers”. The timing of the video message, the medium it was posted through and its content are all extremely important....

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and US President Donald Trump's message at the White House during the press conference on March 19 attracted international attention. Particularly in the areas of terrorism, drug and human trafficking, cybercrime and money...

A Critique of Hybrid Warfare Concept It was retired Marine Officer Frank Hoffman who popularised the Hybrid warfare concept in a series of articles and books since it was first publicly used in 2005 in a conference, by General Mattis, the U.S. General Secretary of...