11/20/03: Bush Still Bests 2004 Democratic Contenders

President George W. Bush continues to capture the lead in key matchups with Democratic presidential contenders, although his numbers now hover closer to the 50 percent mark.

The latest FOX News national poll shows that if the 2004 presidential election were held today, President Bush would capture 49 percent of the vote when matched against former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (search), retired Gen. Wesley Clark (search), or Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt (search). Each of these Democratic hopefuls receives the same amount of support (36 percent).

If the Democratic opponent were New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (search), just over half of voters say they would support the president and almost four in 10 would support Clinton (52 percent to 38 percent).

"There have been a lot of polls showing Bush and a generic Democrat close, but the actual candidates are still not well enough known to close that gap," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman (search). "The problem for Bush in these numbers is he doesn't have a clear majority and it is likely many of the undecided voters will not back him. For example, undecided voters in the Bush-Clark matchup disapprove of Bush’s economic performance by a 62 percent to 25 percent margin. That suggests those voters are currently more likely to decide for Clark than for Bush."

Military veterans and current members of the armed forces are no more likely than other Americans to support Clark, a retired U.S. Army general. Among this military subgroup, Bush receives 53 percent to Clark’s 36 percent. Furthermore, the military subgroup would vote strikingly similar to other Americans on all the vote questions.

As in the past, there are clear differences between the vote preferences of men and women. The poll shows that men are generally about 10 percentage points more likely than women to support Bush.

When voters were asked whether Bush or Democratic front-runner Dean would do a better job of keeping the country safe from terrorism, Bush outranks Dean by 22 percentage points (51 percent to 29 percent). Republicans are very supportive of their party’s leader, with fully 89 percent saying Bush would do a better job on national security compared to 56 percent of Democrats saying Dean.

On managing the country’s economy, Bush still bests Dean, but by a smaller margin than on security — a 43 percent plurality says Bush would do a better job managing the economy and 38 percent say Dean. Again, Republicans are faithful to their candidate, with 83 percent saying Bush would do better on the economy while 69 percent of Democrats say Dean.

A majority of the public thinks Clinton will wait to run for president in 2008 (63 percent), but a small minority thinks she has plans to run in 2004 (14 percent) and seven percent say “neither.” Even though Clinton has repeatedly said she is not running in 2004, many pundits speculate she could still be planning to get into the race.

Polling was conducted by telephone November 18-19, 2003 in the evenings. The sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points, unless otherwise noted.

1. Regardless of how you usually vote, in the last few years which political party do you think has been more partisan and unwilling to compromise? (ROTATE)

1. Democratic Party

34%

2. Republican Party

40

3. (Both)

13

4. (Not sure)

13

2. I'm going to read you a list of names of some possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in the next election. If a 2004 Democratic primary for president were held today, which ONE of the following candidates would you most likely vote for? (If not sure: Well, to whom do you lean at thistime?) (RANDOMIZE)

----- Summary Among Democrats (n=345) -----

Dean

18%

Clark

14

Lieberman

10

Gephardt

9

Kerry

8

Braun

3

Edwards

3

Kucinich

2

Sharpton

2

(Else/Other)

6

(Not sure)

22

(Would not vote)

3

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

14%

10%

14-15 Oct 03

13

11

23-24 Sep 03

20

16

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

10%

13%

14-15 Oct 03

11

9

23-24 Sep 03

9

8

9-10 Sep 03

16

17

12-13 Aug 03

18

15

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

8%

8%

14-15 Oct 03

10

7

23-24 Sep 03

10

8

9-10 Sep 03

17

11

12-13 Aug 03

13

7

Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

9%

6%

14-15 Oct 03

9

6

23-24 Sep 03

9

6

9-10 Sep 03

6

9

12-13 Aug 03

12

8

North Carolina Sen. John Edwards

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

3%

3%

14-15 Oct 03

3

2

23-24 Sep 03

5

5

9-10 Sep 03

4

3

12-13 Aug 03

3

3

Former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

3%

3%

14-15 Oct 03

3

1

23-24 Sep 03

2

3

9-10 Sep 03

3

1

12-13 Aug 03

4

2

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

18%

16%

14-15 Oct 03

12

10

23-24 Sep 03

13

9

9-10 Sep 03

14

11

12-13 Aug 03

11

7

New York Rev. Al Sharpton

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

2%

1%

14-15 Oct 03

2

3

23-24 Sep 03

3

3

9-10 Sep 03

2

2

12-13 Aug 03

5

3

Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

2%

3%

14-15 Oct 03

2

1

23-24 Sep 03

1

1

9-10 Sep 03

2

1

12-13 Aug 03

2

-

(Someone else/Other)

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

6%

2%

14-15 Oct 03

-

-

23-24 Sep 03

5

5

9-10 Sep 03

7

7

12-13 Aug 03

5

11

(Not sure)

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

22%

25%

14-15 Oct 03

27

33

23-24 Sep 03

19

25

9-10 Sep 03

24

31

12-13 Aug 03

22

31

(Would not vote)

Dem

Ind

18-19 Nov 03

3%

10%

14-15 Oct 03

8

17

23-24 Sep 03

2

8

9-10 Sep 03

2

6

12-13 Aug 03

3

6

3. If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (rotate order) (Push for decision) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat Howard Dean 3. (Not sure/Other) 4. (Would Not Vote)