In the press

Press quotes

What basically explains the German recovery is contained in an observation in the contrarian manner by Philip Whyte, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, remarking that "Germany resembles a bungee jumper in the spring-back phase." The German economy fell more deeply than any other industrial nation in 2009 and has naturally rebounded faster than its peers, Mr Whyte wrote last month.

"The eurozone is likely to be the loser in this," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. He says big Asian economies like China and South Korea will race to keep their own currencies stable against the dollar.

Separately, Simon Tilford at the Centre for European Reform published a piece today: "What currency wars mean for the eurozone." He points out that the eurozone's trade with the rest of the world is roughly in balance and that nobody could accuse the European Central Bank of launching policies to weaken the euro. Mr Tilford points out that Germany blocked discussion of imbalances at the recent Group of 20 meeting, arguing that it's for deficit countries to put their own houses in order.

There is no sign of the EU moving to open up to Northern Cyprus, while Mr Erdogan is unlikely to risk losing face by moving to open Turkish ports ahead of elections next June, said Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, attending the seminar. "I don't see any way out," she said.

Analysts like Simon Tilford, of the Centre for European Reform in London, say the reforms are crucial. "What we are seeing is essentially a very powerful group of special interests resisting reforms that would be in everyone's interest and which provide one of the least painful ways of reassuring investors about France's public finances," he said. Tilford believes European governments must take more painful measures than simply increasing retirement age.

Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, contends that the Germans are in no mood to compromise. "Perhaps for the first time since the second world war, they are allowing themselves to be defiant and proud. Their export-oriented, stability-obsessed economic model is not up for discussion."

"It depends how you define success," deputy director at the Centre for European Reform Katinka Barysch told The Moscow News. "If the government thinks it will create the physical infrastructure for international business then I think that yes, given how much money they have thrown at the project, it will be a success.

"His overall approach is one of solid intellectual analysis and modesty about what he can achieve," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a research institute. "He has analysed where Europe is and where it needs to go. He doesn't always get his way, but he is respected by many heads of government."

"What we are seeing is the result of the European Union not being able to handle the migration crisis in the way that they should," said Camino Mortera-Martinez, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

"Rising wages are a resolutely positive thing," said Simon Tilford, deputy director of the CER. "But we will need to see several more years of reasonably strong German wage growth in order to have a meaningful impact on the imbalances in the German economy."

Camino Mortera from the Centre for European Reform told us: "There is a sense of people getting scared about what is happening in Greece happening in Spain as well. People see the banks closing and they think that Podemos will do the same in Spain."