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Conference Championship Picks

In many ways, this playoff year is a microcosm of the regular season. We’ve seen both number one seeds lose in rather emphatic fashion on their home field, while both six seeds are alive and well. I knew all along that my goal of a perfect 11-0 record in the playoffs was a longshot, but I didn’t expect it blow up in the first game with a win by the 7-9 Seahawks. No one picked that game correctly, and I don’t know of anyone who actually picked the Patriots to lose at home with a straight face. The fact that the Pats had beat the Jets 45-3 in the regular season only to lose to them a month later and look very bad doing it, well that has to rank up there with one of the biggest playoff upsets in history. What will we see this weekend? I wish I could tell I know for sure, but here is my best guess:

AFC Championship: Steelers over Jets – In many ways I feel like the Jets keep winning just to spite me. All season long I’ve felt they are the most overrated team in the league. I think if they played in say, St. Louis and not New York, they wouldn’t get near the coverage that they do and wouldn’t be the media’s darlings. I think the Jets were lucky in at least four of their wins during the year. They only won in Denver thanks to a horrible pass interference call on fourth down. They needed overtime to win in Cleveland. They only won at Detroit thanks to a bizarre Ndamokong Suh missed extra point and poor clock management by the Lions. They only won against Houston because of a poor use of prevent defense by the Texans. You get the idea, the Jets have several wins based strictly on luck and luck alone. I will admit they have a lot of talent on their team, and they carry themselves with such confidence that they feel they can beat anyone. In their two playoff games, they managed to shut down offenses led by two of the best of all-time, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. The Jets also managed to shut down Ben Roethlisberger in their regular season meeting, one of the Jets’ legit wins, at Heinz Field no less.

So why do I think the Jets won’t win at Heinz Field again? Well, I just don’t trust them ultimately. I think the Jets will play with confidence, I think the defense will be effective, and I think Santonio Holmes will have a good game against his former club. I also however think the Steelers are not quite getting the credit they deserve. They managed to overcome a 14-point halftime deficit against Baltimore last week. No one does that. I think the Steelers defense will force at least two turnovers against Mark Sanchez. I also think the Jets running game has very little chance to be effective against one of the best run defenses in the league. I also think the Steelers know how to win. Most of the roster was around for at least one if not both of their recent Super Bowl victories. I think this will be a low scoring competitive game, but I think Roethlisberger will be better than Sanchez and that will be the difference. Pittsburgh 20 Jets 17.

NFC Championship Game: Packers over Bears – It should tell you all you need to know that the Packers are favored even though they’re on the road. Green Bay has the look of a team that is playing so well at the right time that no one in their right mind should want to get in their way. Aaron Rodgers is playing perfect football, making every perfect decision while making tough throws. The Packers’ defense has been nothing short of dominant against Michael Vick and Matt Ryan. The Packers also are a team that is not afraid to play on the road, and has proven an ability to win in any kind of weather. As for the Bears, they have had a fine season, winning the division. In their win against the Seahawks, they showed their defense is among the best in the league and they also showed they can run the ball with effectiveness. Jay Cutler even lost his head and played a very good game, actually making smart decisions while not turning the ball over. This shapes up for an epic conference title matchup on paper.

In actuality, I think this will be a mismatch. I think the Bears were nothing short of lucky to get to beat up on the under .500 Seahawks last week, and I think their victory is more a reflection of how bad Seattle is than how good Chicago might be. When that game was 7-0, Cutler threw a pass to a wide open Jordan Babineaux of Seattle, who promptly dropped the sure interception. Had he picked Cutler off, he would have had a sure touchdown for there was nothing in front of him. Had Babineaux taken that to the house, the game might have turned out very differently. Green Bay played a complete game in destroying the top seed Falcons in the Georgia Dome. I think even though this is at Solder Field, the home field edge will be negligible because the Packers are obviously used to cold weather. I think Aaron Rodgers is playing so well that he will be good for at least three touchdown passes. I also think the Bears offense could be in for a long day, particularly if Green Bay jumps to an early lead. The bottom line is I trust Rodgers way more than I do Cutler. I think the Bears are here because of their defense and running game, but as well as the Packers are playing on both sides of the ball, I don’t think it will matter much what Chicago does. I really don’t think this is going to be close. Green Bay 31 Chicago 17.