I'd assume it would be RWD. Model 3 is supposed to compete with the BMW 3 series. Those are either RWD or AWD. No reason to go FWD. FWD is generally a cost saving measure for ICE cars. No cost savings going FWD in a car designed to be an electric car.

Possibly the Base 3 will be the 188HP with a 45kW battery that they will be able to get 200 miles of range out of at 65mph, just barely. Of course there will be a larger battery available, maybe a 75. I'm just guessing wildly, of course.

Then a Dual motor version with two 188HP.

Then a P version with a 380HP, and P D version with a 380 and a 188.

Just speculating. But certain that all the single motor versions will be RWD.

The base model 3 will match the model S60 in performance.
There's no reason to make it as slow as a leaf or fwd.
Elon has repeatably said tesla want to show that an electric car can be better than a gas car in every area.
The modelS has a winning formula and tesla won't change it when all their chips are on the model 3.

With the introduction of the dual motor Model S, Tesla now has quite a few different motor/inverter options. Let's take a look.

From the S60 & S85:
380HP Rear Unit

From the 85D:
188HP Front Unit
188HP Rear Unit

From the P85D:
221HP Front Unit
470HP Rear Unit

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In basic we are only talking about two different motors. The "old" and the "new". By making small adjustment to them, and adjust the inverter, they can take out what they want (within some limits) of power and torque.

We know that the motor(s) to be used by the Model 3 will be of the "new" type. The "old" motor is for Gen-II (and maybe Gen-IV/V?). And it was said that the motor(s) on Gen-II will be *based* on this new motor architecture. So we will probably not see 188HP or 221HP on Model 3. Model 3 P-D may have 240HP rear and 150HP front, M3-D 150HP x2 and M3 170HP RWD. Or something else...

his point has to do with the fact that a fwd drive car just lets the rear wheels roll, which can be easier to control the car in slippery conditions.
Eg; rwd doing donuts compared to fwd doing donuts.

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The differences is if it is the front wheels or the rear wheels that will slip. Oversteering vs understeering. My personal preferences is to let the wheels that you are steering the car with roll free.

Yes, I live a place with long winters and lots of snow/slippery conditions. Yes, I have driven a lot with RWD and FWD. My current cars are both FWD, but that is not because I prefer FWD, just that it dos not mater too much, so I really don't care on way or another. The downside of FWD is having to drive in reverse up steep slippery slopes.

My guess is that they will want to keep the number of variants down for production efficiency standpoint. With that said I think we will get similar set to current S line up - a base RWD, an AWD version and a performance AWD version with the higher rated motors. I kind of doubt that they have stopped trying to improve the motors and inverters so I would expect different HP options then those currently available.

I have said for some time that the base version of the Model ☰ would likely be rear wheel drive and use a refined version of the motor from the Tesla Model S 60. That was originally a 302 HP powerplant, and is now rated at 380 HP instead. So I guess the refining process has been completed already for what would be powering a Tesla Model ☰ 60.

I had previously stated that a performance version of the Model ☰ would have a higher capacity battery pack and would be 500 HP with dual motor all wheel drive. With the advent of the Tesla Model S P85D, it seems I may have been rather conservative with that estimate. 707 HP (260+447) would be just fine in my Tesla Model ☰ P135D Coupe with Falcon Wing Doors.

In between I imagine a Model ☰ 85D at 442 HP (221+221) and maybe a Model ☰ P85D at 568 HP (188+380).

There will not be a front wheel drive version of the Model ☰.

JRP3 wrote, "Highly unlikely that the 3 will be FWD. I'm inclined to say 0% chance."

Precisely. I keep wondering why people keep suggesting a front wheel drive Model ☰, when Tesla Motors has repeatedly said the cars will go after the BMW 3-Series. I do not believe Tesla Motors will ever release a front wheel drive car for use in the United States of America. There is the outside chance that they may deign to release small city cars as a Generation IV vehicle for very crowded locations in Asia and Europe that have narrow streets and where residents have no specific need to go on road trips at all.

ecarfan wrote, "Possibly the Base 3 will be the 188HP with a 45kW battery that they will be able to get 200 miles of range out of at 65mph, just barely."

Tesla Motors wants to achieve more than 200 miles of range, as a minimum -- not a maximum, for Generation III vehicles, as rated by the EPA. If you presume that about 10% of the battery pack is a reserve, to prevent bricking, that would mean only 40.5 kWh would be available for driving. So over 200 miles you would have to average 202.5 Wh per mile.

This is made harder by the fact the EPA rates cars' energy efficiency based upon how much energy they figure would be supplied from the wall, including induction losses. So they would say the car used ~53 kWh to travel that distance, and rate it at 265 WH per mile instead. Thus, they would post its range as 170 miles.

Please note that current owners of the Tesla Model S say they typically achieve a 280 Wh to 320 Wh average per mile, but the EPA rated the car at 380 Wh per mile instead. It simply will not do to engineer the Tesla Model ☰ to 'just barely' reach 200 miles in the real world, because the EPA will say you missed anyway.

I think FWD on the base Model 3 seems likely. This is because in the smaller Model 3, space utilization will be important. If the Model 3 can't have 5 seats and a lots of space in the back (maybe even 2 rearward facing seats), that will impact popularity a lot more than FWD vs RWD. A little bit of space in the back and a little bit of space in the frunk isn't nearly as versitile as one big space at the back. Performance version will definitely have AWD, and less space in the back.

I think Tesla is pragmatic above all else. Even BMW is rolling out a bunch of FWD cars based on the UKL platform.

I don't know why you'd think the smaller Model 3 motor would not fit easily in the same location in the rear as the Model S motor. It will fit under the trunk area and will not impact the seating area.

Even BMW is rolling out a bunch of FWD cars based on the UKL platform.

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...because manufacturing costs for an ICE are reduced by FWD. You can install the entire drivetrain as a single unit, rather than in pieces (engine/tranny, rear axle, then driveshaft). This isn't really an issue for Tesla, since the drive units are installed as a single unit, front or rear.

Cars built on the UKL platforms are low-cost, entry-level vehicles. Cost control is, presumably, paramount.

I don't know why you'd think the smaller Model 3 motor would not fit easily in the same location in the rear as the Model S motor. It will fit under the trunk area and will not impact the seating area.

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That depends on the shape of the Model 3. By what Elon Musk says, the Model 3 will be unlike any other car, and thus, it will not simply be a scaled down Model S. Necessarily, any space that the rear wheel drive unit will take up is space that could otherwise have been used to get a larger passenger or cargo space at the back. It would make more sense to put the drive unit at the front, where it's more out of the way.