Southeast Asia: Moderate to Exceptional Water Deficits Forecast

Many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific may experience moderate to exceptional water deficits in the coming months, as reported in our prior post. As evident in the 12-month map below, Thailand and the island of New Guinea may be hardest hit.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for April 2015 through March 2016(12-Month)

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.) From July through September severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast for most of the region, including Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Papua New Guinea. Deficits may persist or continue to emerge through March in Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and southern Papua New Guinea.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for April 2015 through March 2016(3-Month)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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