It's not like I care whether or not he runs. Socialists can win without him, and I'd be fully satisfied with either Aubry or him. But with the election aproaching, not even knowing who is our candidate is rather annoying.

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"The major political task that we face in the next five months is to make certain that Donald [Drumpf] is defeated and defeated badly."

It's not like I care whether or not he runs. Socialists can win without him, and I'd be fully satisfied with either Aubry or him. But with the election aproaching, not even knowing who is our candidate is rather annoying.

Jospin, 1995 and Royal, 2007 were picked later (sure, they lost , but that wasn't the reason).

Let me enjoy the suspense with the constant rise of Hollande, probably boosted by medias after the 27th of March (cantonales' second round).

Let me enjoy some drame from Royal.

Let me enjoy the possible fight between Fabius and Aubry if she tries to turn around DSK.

Let me enjoy the many governments on paper that will begin to be listed from July.

So, DSK is still very high: no sign of boredom .Aubry's rise is stopped, while Hollande is gaining ground and Royal has a chaotic trend, as usual, but is still harmful for someone.Montebourg has alreadu failed and Valls is at his rate on the right of the PS, like Bockel before him.

What is great to see is results among far-leftists (dont' know the sample):DSK 19 (tout de même !), Aubry only 29, Royal 23, Hollande 16

I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

uhm... George Wallace carried the entire south,.....

Not the entire south, only 4 States plus he only got 14% of the vote while doing so. He might have gotten 23% or more in 1968 if we had a two round system like France, but we don't have such a system and it isn't 1968.

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Quote from: Ignatius of Antioch

He that possesses the word of Jesus, is truly able to bear his very silence. — Epistle to the Ephesians 3:21a

I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

uhm... George Wallace carried the entire south,.....

Not the entire south, only 4 States plus he only got 14% of the vote while doing so. He might have gotten 23% or more in 1968 if we had a two round system like France, but we don't have such a system and it isn't 1968.

The form of fascism represented by Le Pen has always been stronger in Europe than in the US. There's a reason, after all, for why Hitler was European.

This is especially striking, imo, once you consider that the racism of the US was a product of having a huge black slave population for a long time. Give us in Europe the tiniest number of Jews or Muslims and the torches come out.

The form of fascism represented by Le Pen has always been stronger in Europe than in the US. There's a reason, after all, for why Hitler was European.

This is especially striking, imo, once you consider that the racism of the US was a product of having a huge black slave population for a long time. Give us in Europe the tiniest number of Jews or Muslims and the torches come out.

Exactly. Europeans, from East to West, are more racist than Americans, it's just that Americans (more generally Southerners) are stereotypically racist. Racial profiling and all that since 9/11 hasn't helped the American image either.

A thunder strike in the presidential election? According to a survey released on Sunday by Harris Interactive for "Le Parisien"/"France Today", Marine Le Pen leads voting intentions for the first round of the presidential election, with 23%. She leads Nicolas Sarkozy and Martine Aubry, both credited with 21%.

It's probably a publicity stunt for Le Parisien, which isn't exactly a newspaper for intellectuals. Harris, iirc, polls online (and God knows the FN is well represented on teh interwebs) and it's by consequence a crappy pollster which polls when they're paid to do so. They probably deliberately attempted to frame the poll to get some ZOMGZ results, like polling only Aubry. It is still the first poll to place the far-right ahead of everybody else, but unlike most of the French media/world I won't go into mass-panic mode.

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17:40 oakvale the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible17:40 oakvale The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death

Absolutely not. People know since decades that Chirac is a corrupt trash, yet they still love him. And in no way people connect Chirac to the current government, to the contrary you will notice Chirac's approval ratings are basically the negative of Sarkozy's.

If any, the government's defeat could hurt Chirac. But even this is doubtful.

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"The major political task that we face in the next five months is to make certain that Donald [Drumpf] is defeated and defeated badly."

Absolutely not. People know since decades that Chirac is a corrupt trash, yet they still love him. And in no way people connect Chirac to the current government, to the contrary you will notice Chirac's approval ratings are basically the negative of Sarkozy's.

If any, the government's defeat could hurt Chirac. But even this is doubtful.

They've got a quota method applied only to gender, age, socio-professional class and size of city of residence. Not with past voting, not with partisan preference, not with regional residence.

And their political polling history is poor. Even CSA is now able to put almost rational "corrections" in their results.(and of course, Hash is right on Le Parisien)

What is true is that- Sarkozy is slowly declining (he has a double-negative momentum: if he says something on immigration, centre-rightists flee towards DSK or Hollande; if he says something more moderate, Le Pen says he is betraying his 2007 promises to popular voters),

- "Panzergirl" hasn't the under-valuation that her father had; I even think she has a slight over-valuation, because people may use her name to "protest" through opinion polls: it's not a shame to say her name (even more by clicking behind a screen).

And remember she has a tremendous media coverage, that is almost indecent. She's everywhere and on every subject, even in leftist medias. As though medias unconsciously think they should compensate for the fact they mostly boycott her father for so long.

To be complete:Mélenchon 5%Besancenot 5%Arthaud 1%(and well, these "only" 11 points for the whole far left may also explain why Panzergirl is so high)Morin 1% (when will he drop this idea to be candidate ?)Dupont-Aignan 1%

And now Harris is announcing it will do another 2 polls: one with DSK as socialist candidate and one with Hollande.Panzergirl is the winner of the day, but Aubry may well be the loser of the week to come .

I would enjoy seeing a second round vote between DSK and LePen with Sarko knocked out after the first round. I guess the only question in that scenario is whether DSK gets 75% or 80%.

My fear is that a lot of right-wingers would be more encline to vote for a far-rightist than for a moderate social-democrat like Strauss Khan. I don't know how much of them would, but my guts say DSK could very well fall below 70% in your scenario.

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"The major political task that we face in the next five months is to make certain that Donald [Drumpf] is defeated and defeated badly."