I think the only policy toward Iraq that would please most Americans would be if Obama materialized a magic wand and was able to make the country disappear forever. Whatever Americans think about Iraq, they hate having to think about a place they just wish would go away.

A: Aaron Blake

I agree. The most popular decision --in the near term -- would be to do nothing, but then the question becomes whether that would mean even worse consequences down the road. Obama has to mind his legacy here.

Given how lazily he has campaigned and given how little enthusiasm he seems to have for seeking another term, a lot of ambitious young Republicans in Mississippi must be very annoyed with Thad Cochran for running again.

A: Aaron Blake

If he loses, there will definitely be some back-biting. There are a ton of candidates who were waiting to run for that seat, and now they'll have a 41-year-old incumbent who's not going anywhere any time soon.

I don't see what national significance there is to his race. He's in trouble because of (1) a scandal idiosyncratic to himself and (2) demographic shifts in his district -- black Americans increasingly outnumbered by Dominican-Americans. That's about it.

A: Aaron Blake

There really is no national significant to his race. It's more about whether an institution in Congress (and former Ways and Means chairman) somehow loses a primary.

Despite being a frequent and outspoken critic of President Obama, McCain's standing with Arizona Republicans is not great. He beat back a less than serious primary challenge from J.D. Hayworth in 2010. Do you see McCain seeking another term in 2016, and will he face a serious challenge for renomination from his fellow Republicans? Who do you see as possibilities to challenge him?

A: Aaron Blake

A lot of the state's congressional delegation has voted very conservatively (Schweikert, Franks, Salmon). I have to wonder if one or two of them have an eye on McCain.

But McCain I think is a lot like McConnell and Graham. Theoretically, he's vulnerable to a primary challenge, but he's not going to stand by and let you define the race like Cochran, Lugar, Bennett, etc. That matters a lot, and I think primary challengers will be wary.

She's been in politics for more than thirty years and yet since she's started the book tour she's had minor stumbles on Benghazi and gay marriage and huge stumbles on wealth. Was she expecting an easier ride from the media or is she just out of shape? Either way it doesn't speak well for her, uh, "readiness."

A: Aaron Blake

We saw very much the same thing with Jeb Bush. It's just much easier to be a secretary of state or non-candidate. And I think these folks are sometimes surprised that the way we cover them changes.

I think Hillary is a pretty solid messenger who probably is just a little off her game. But you have to wonder if this makes her rethink that whole running again thing.

Am I correct in seeing both parties' leadership as being more hawkish than their rank-and-file supporters? Democrats in Washington seem pretty united in supporting Obama's policies. But polls show a sizable number of Democrats who don't want to do *anything* in Iraq.
Republicans mostly are positioning themselves as more hawkish than Obama. But there's a sizable minority of Republican voters who are non-interventionist, and Rand Paul is really the only one speaking for them.

A: Aaron Blake

I do think members are being more hawkish than their constituents, because they see the real nature of the threat. Average Americans don't really know what ISIS is or what it's doing; they just know that they don't want to get involved in another war.

Public opinion could change as more is learned. For now, the public's resistance is pretty knee-jerk.

Who are some VP candidates that could potentially balance Rand Paul and his libertarian sympathies well?

A: Aaron Blake

Basically, Rand Paul needs his very own Dick Cheney.

You might laugh at that, but it's kind of true. Paul would need someone who establishment Republicans feel like would be their guy in the White House and could have a say in what Paul does. And Paul has shown he's willing to play ball with the establishment.

Hi Aaron -- I probably get three e-mails a day telling me how tight his race is (yes, I'm a supporter, but it's gotten a little ridiculous... they act like the election is tomorrow). What's the reality?

A: Aaron Blake

I think it's a state with a slight blue lean and Franken won with just 42% last time. In other words, there are about 8% of voters that he needs to win over for the first time.

If McFadden can run a legitimate campaign, I don't see why this can't be on the table.

This is one of those races that, if the GOP wasn't chasing red states like Arkansas, Louisiana, etc., we would probably be significantly more focused on.

Here's my theory: the primary motivator behind Republicans supporting more intervention in Iraq is residual allegiance to Bush and the fact that Iraq is still perceived as a Republican War. If the same situation existed in a different country, Republicans would conform to the non-interventionism that has become the party's new normal. Thus, Rand is smart to stake out an anti-intervention position to maintain the record most consistent with the most Rs and Americans.

Obama's approval rating has taken a hit over the past couple of weeks, presumably because of Iraq. But so far it hasn't affected downballot Democrats much. The generic ballot hasn't shifted, Senators like Jeanne Shaheen and Mark Warner are still running well above Obama's job approval. Any thoughts?

A: Aaron Blake

Shaheen's and Warner's approval ratings aren't really directly affected by Obama. I just think an unpopular president makes it harder for them to win with the approval ratings that they do have.

I would also add that Obama's approval rating is down a bit in the near term, but it's still pretty on-par with where it's been for months. I'm not surprised there isn't a big shift in those races.

There I said it. Can we all just acknowledge the fact that she very likely not going to get to 50% on Election Day and is almost certainly not going to get 50% during the runoff?

A: Aaron Blake

I wonder how many people made similar declarations in 2002 and 2008?

She's an incumbent, and it's tough to beat incumbents. I think she's got a very tough race, but I'm not close to comfortable with the idea that she's already done-for. There are four months left, and Republicans could spend much of that time beating each other up.

Presumably the senate will be somewhere between 50/50 and 53/47 - what is reasonable to expect the next congress to accomplish?

A: Aaron Blake

I think Keystone stands a much better chance if McConnell is the majority leader. There are plenty of Democrats who would be on-board -- if it got a vote.

And maybe Republicans do something small-scale on immigration. That's not really on the table right now, but if the GOP sends Obama something small, would he actually veto it rather than take something that gets him 50% to what he wants?

Isn't the bigger problem that she seems unable to answer questions that she and her team should have been able to anticipate - gay marriage, wealth, etc - without putting her foot in her mouth? She was never a great candidate in 2007/08 at avoiding gaffes - Bosnia sniper fire, RFK assassination, etc - so does this show that nothing has changed?

A: Aaron Blake

It's one thing to gaffe. It's another to gaffe on the same issues twice in two weeks.

Why in the world does she feel the need to keep prosecuting her family's wealth? The best answer to those questions is: "We have been so blessed. I want to make sure Americans have those same opportunities." Done. End of comment.

Well, you couldn't blame her if she did expect that her media friends would spread rose petals in her path to coronation. They've been promoting her for more than 20 years.

A: Aaron Blake

People are free to think they want, but I really don't perceive the media as being in love with Hillary Clinton. Her campaign in 2008 was notoriously heavy-handed in its dealings with reporters, and folks remember that.

I would advise a candidate not to talk about it, simply because there are no options that are (1) plausible and (2) popular. If the candidate insisted, I would suggest that she keep it vague: "We need stronger leadership in the White House."

A: Aaron Blake

Correct. Even among Republicans, calling for more involvement isn't a clear winner.

Does this class really seem stronger than 2012 as everyone says? Especially if Jeb doesn't run, the pickings seem mighty slim in that every candidate seems to have at least one major problem. I think Romney might be considered a stronger candidate than any of them.

A: Aaron Blake

I think the 2016 field has more potential than the 2012 field, but you're right that Romney was kind of the known quantity that they don't really have this time around.

You're around a lot of politicians. Much of the time they are just mouthing platitudes, so it is hard for those of us on the outside to get a sense of how smart and knowledgeable they really are. So, generally, are these super-smart people or not?

A: Aaron Blake

I think it was Rahm Emanuel who once said: "All of America is represented in Congress. And by all of America, I mean all of America."

Being in politics requires lots of things, and being really, really smart is helpful -- though not a necessity.

Some candidates who initially looked very strong don't look so hot now: Christie, Rubio, Walker. Some potential candidates who look pretty good may not run: Jeb, Ryan, Huckabee. One promising candidate is unacceptable to much of the party's elite: Paul.

The idea of a former one-term congressman who voted for Nancy Pelosi for speaker, the stimulus package, and the bailout beating a Republican in Mississippi in a Republican year is just a bit too crazy for me to take seriously, even with McDaniel's baggage. Do you think Childers has a shot against McDaniel?

A: Aaron Blake

It's a remote chance -- especially in a midterm year. But lightning has struck a few times in recent years.

Aaron Blake covers national politics at the Washington Post, where he writes regularly for the Fix, the Post's top political blog. A Minnesota native and graduate of the University of Minnesota, Aaron has also written about politics for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and The Hill newspaper. Aaron and his wife, Danielle, and dog, Mauer, live in Northern Virginia.