5 comments:

POPE GEORGE RINGO
said...

THe latest AP poll has the race a dead heat: Obama 44% McCain 43%; lending credence to my earlier post that this race is in no way going to be a blowout for either side. Again, it will be a long night.

Virginia's polls close at 7:00p.m. east coast time. If current polling is correct Obama is ahead in that state anywhere from 4 points to 10 points depending on the poll. If the major networks call Virginia in Barack's column by 8:00p.m. There is no way McCain has a chance.

Also, current polling nationwide shows that Obama is leading by 10 or more points in states with a total value of 260 electoral votes. McCain is only leading in states by 10 or more points with an electoral college value of 134 votes. It is going to take a major external issue to come up between now and the election to change this.

BUT, you may keep praying, as you have been all election season for a close election.

Anyone who believes that Obama is going to take Virginia by 10 points is smoking some good wacky tabacky. Also, there is absolutely no way that any of those swing states will be called within an hour after their respective polls close. At the very least, Virginia will be called at 10-10:30 p.m. And let's not even get started on the far western swing states. As I said, it will be a long night. P.S. Even if the race does turn out to be a landslide, the networks will not call it until 11 p.m. Point of reference: 1980: The networks called it for Reagan at around 8:45eastern--many in the western states where it was only 5:45 did not bother to vote--causing an uproar in the Dem party which had some close races that may have been won had the election not been called. As per Forrest's commentary, no one wants you to be correct more than I.

Yeah, Obama is ahead by a huge margin. That's why his internal poll shows him ahead by a whopping 2% and he's resorting to typical liberal tactics: Vote for me so your social security isn't in jeopardy!!!

I'd also point out that I lived in Virginia in 1989, during Doug Wilder's gubernatorial race. The polls had all three statewide Democrats ahead by large margins, and the two white candidates won by margins very similar to what the polls predicted. Doug Wilder, who was leading by 9 to 10%, won the election by ½ of 1%.

And in that race, the Republican candidate was so bad that even I voted for Mr Wilder!