Summary

Lvov D.S., Mednitsky V.G., Mednitsky Ju.V.,
Ovsienko Ju.V. (Moscow) Economic evaluation
of large-scale projectsThe problems of economic evaluation of large-scale projects
in contemporary Russian conditions are discussed in this paper. We investigate
the corresponding problems that can be solved using the methods of mathematical
economics and a dialog system for project evaluation. The optimization
models used in this system is also described.

Pugachev V.F., Pitelin A.K. (Moscow) Analysis
of anti-inflationary economic policy variantsThe influence of a state economic policy on some selected indicators
of inflationary process is investigated on the base of the conception developed
by the authors before. Many variants of model calculations give an opportunity
to reveal efficiency of varied methods of influence on economics, to formulate
some suggestions upon the struggle against inflation.

Kashin V.N. (Moscow) On
a tendency of post-industrial economyWe investigate the contemporal economic state of developed countries
and in this connection the role of scientific-technical progress, intellectual
labour in output of new products, the role of classic theory of labour
value and the problems of economic theory.

Varshavsky A.E., Grubman S.A., Zhelezniakova
L.G. (Moscow) Economic reforms and changes
in branches technological levelThe quantitative estimates of technological level of 110
processes and products in main branches of Russian economy are given as
the basis of proposed methodological principles. The growth of backwardness
relatively to the trends of 1980-s in revealed as well as the main factors
that stimulated these negative processes are determined.

Polterovich V.M. (Moscow) Transformational
recession in RussiaCauses of the transformational recession in Russia are analyzed.
It is argued that particulary important are two of them: "row material
integration" into world markets and premature attempts of the government
to stop inflation. A program of inflation rate stabilization is proposed
as an instrument to overcome the recession.

Yakovlev A.A. (Moscow) Currency
futures market in Russia: tendences and prospects of developmentThis paper gives a description of US dollars futures market
at Moscow Commodity Exchange and brief characteristics of its institutional
development in 1992–1995. Qualitative changes in the structure and behaviour
of the participants of the futures market and also development of interconnections
of this market with other financial markets are analized. Basic factors
limiting development of the futures market in Russia under contemporary
conditions are determined in this article.

Motkin G.A. (Moscow) Ecological
risks insurance in free market conditionsMethodology of ecological risks insurance development and its
role and importance in ecological sofety are considered. The idea of ecological
security should be garanteed if the necessity and possibility of engaging
commercial structures capital could be proved.

Rotar V.I., Sholomitsky A.G. (Moscow) On
evaluation of risk in insurance activityThe paper containts a short introduction into the modern
theory of risk evaluation. We are concerned with general principles and
some widespread criteria, as well as with an application of those to an
analysis of the optimal behaviour of an insurance company.

Alexandrov I.A., Sokolovsky D.B. (Donezk) Classification
of industrial systems on ecological risk rateExperience of progress and present state of the problem in Ukraine
are examined. Methods of insurance fees rates differentialisation, collecting
source information and estimating its reliability and tariffs calculation
are proposed.

Gurman V.I., Kulbaka N.E., Rumina E.V. (Moscow,
Pereslavl–Zalesski) Environmental problems
in System of National AccountsWe consider the system of national accounts, its history
and prospectives. Possibilities of its extention by putting of satellite
accounts and experience of using of such accounts for strategic planning
are analyzed. As the base for modification of system of national accounts
it is suggested to use conceptual model reflecting various aspects of sustainable
development.

Smolyak S.A. (Moscow) Comparison
of the "likelyhooded" alternativesThe problem considered is the comparison of variants of
the projects which technical-economic indexes are based on the statistical
information, however, characterized not by the distributional estimators
but directly by the liklyhood functions. We found the structure of comparison
criteria satisfied the axioms having the simple economic meaning.

Gavriletz Ju.N. (Moscow) Interests
measurements and price regulation of economics with variable structure
of population (model analysis)The article deals with small-sized models of economic system
where labour activities and social groups sizes are variables. The optimal
properties of equilibrium are investigated for criterias WI =
\Sum NkUk, WII = min Uk.
The results of computer modelling of stable and unstable equilibriums are
discussing.

Polishchuk L.I. (USA) Rent
seeking economic efficiency: the case of spontaneous privatizationThe paper deals with the process of "spontaneous privatization",
when in the absence of a convincial capital market control over capital
can be secured by rent seeking type efforts. Under the assumption of universality
of entrepreunal talant, spontaneous privatization entails not only cost
rent seeking, but also benefits of self-selection of able entrepreneurs.
An equilibrium model is introduced with the capital market replaced by
rent seeking. It is demonstrated that although rent seeking levies its
tall, the equilibrium stil features some desirable efficiency properties.
The problems of entry control into rent seeking are discussed, including
taxation as a means to prevent socially undesirable overrollment into entrepreneurship.
The paper concludes by considering spontaneous privatization as a trigger
for conventional capital market, which gradually replaces rent seeking.

Dementiev V.E. (Moscow) Investment
and innovative avantages of financial-industrial groups This paper establishs that credits become cheaper for members
of financial-industrial groups since banks take part in such groups. It
is favorable both to investment and innovative processes. The paper shows
how financial-industrial groups held to bring closer to each other strategic
interests of consumer and deliverer.

Egorova E.N., Petrov Ju.A. (Moscow) Evaluation
of effective tax rate of value added in Russia and foreign countriesA term "effective tax rate" (ETR) of value added
is introduced for evaluation of total tax burden. The static model for
ETR computation and results of the comparative analysis of ETR in Russia
and foreign countries on the base of real data are described.

Pervakova E.E., Staroverov O.V. (Moscow) On
parameters estimation of population mobilityThis paper deals with the comparison of population mobility
estimators on the base of real data.

Tarasova N.A., Blyumina M.S. (Moscow) Involuntary
employment structure and its influence on transition processesThis paper deals with an involuntary employment, which is
one of the essential characteristics of transition period. To estimate
the components of its structure and earning level is the first investigated
actual problem. Its solution will result in more exact forecasts of occupatinal
level, rate of labourforce redundancy release and the unemployment rate.
The second problem – to investigate connection between investing process
and the involuntary employment.

Gusev A.A., Guseva I.G. (Moscow) On
economic mechanism of sustainable developmentPremises of the necessity of elaboration of economic mechanism
sustainable development are analysed. System of economic mechanism elements
is substantiated. It comprises the improvement of macro- and micro-economic
indicators, creation of complex of economic impacts on production ecologization,
stimulation of market for environmental services production and technologies,
accounting of admissable environmental risk factors, etc. Interrelations
between elements in system and measures for adequate administrative support
are shown.

Kokovin S.G. (Novosibirsk) A
model of mixed multi-market economy; "soft" rationing and pq-equilibriumAn economy is considered, consisting of several markets
with different transaction costs and different market-clearing mechanisms.
Among them there are markets combining price and quantity regulation, in
a special way named "soft" rationing. It means that rations (quotas)
can be violated for expense of some penalties or costs. An equilibrium
model of such market system is suggested and equilibria existence proved.

Venedov D.V., Guriev S.M., Pospelov I.G. (Moscow) On
some properties of logarithmic utility functionThe problem on rational consumer behavior under uncertainty
of prices and purchase moments is considered. The way the saved part depends
on the consumer wealth is investigated. The logarithmic utility function
is considered separately. In this case the saved part happens to be independent
of prices, and an asympthotical formula is obtained for it at larged discount
rates.

Mednitsky V.G. (Moscow) Economic
efficiency analysis by optimizational modelsUsing general static and dynamic models the author deduces
necessary conditions for obtain economic efficiency of decisions. In the
basis of this paper are Kantorovich' evaluations described in his works
"Mathematical methods of production organization" (1939) and
"Economic determination of the best use of resources" (1960).

Voloshinov V.V., Levitin E.S. (Moscow) Extreme
constraints in models on investment project with Financial mechanism ensuring
all cash outflowsThe paper presents a conception of optimization models with
not only initial but intermediate cash outflows also. Special conditions
to ensure realizations of the projects are included into the model, Building-in
the project special financial mechanism ensuring all intermediate outflow
causes appearence of extreme constraints in the optimizational model. An
example of financial leasing project supplied with ensuring mechanism as
government bonds portfolio is considered.

Bulavsky V.A. (Moscow) An
imaginary experiment with generalized Cournot modelA problem of choosing some natural market model, intermediate
between the absolute competition and the classic oligopoly, is considered.
The market agents use an appropriate feedback scheme to observe the results
of their actions. Under the latter condition the intermediate model is
demonstrated to be determined endogenously by the economics parameters.

Zorcaltsev V.I. (Irkytsk) Axiomathic
analysis of calculation methods of index-factors weight in their productIn this paper the constraints to a method of some index-factors
weight calculation are formulated. On the base of those index-factors analysis
the more conviniant method is exposed.

Shastitko A.E. (Moscow) The
state and economic growthThe article that is suggested is an attempt of interpretation
of economic development problem within the framework of neoinstitutional
approach to the analysis of state significance in economic history. Its
background is duality of institutions according to which coordinating function
of institution is a side product of distributive conflict overcoming.

Bernstam M.S., Guriev S.M., Olenev N.N., Petrov
A.A., Pospelov I.G. (Moscow) A mechanism
of economic growth initiation through restoration of savingsThe article describes the findings on the Russian economy after
the reform of 1992 with the application of mathematical models. Part I
shows that the state of the economy in 1992–1994 can be confidently described
applying the new model of an inefficient inflationary equilibrium. This
equilibrium emerges due to the lack of investment and insufficient household
savings. To overcome this equilibrium, a restructuring of fundamental economic
relations is necessary. Part II analyzes one possible strategy for this
restructuring on the basis of stimulating productive investment. An engaging
feature of this strategy is the creation of investment resources via the
conversion of household savings depleted by the 1992 inflation into government
debt and their gradual private investment. An analysis of a mathematical
model of this process shows that the proposed mechanism can work, but its
implementation needs additional policy measures for overcoming both technical
inefficiency of the Russian economy and the underdevelopment of its financial
institutions.

Albegov M.M., Bursa B.I., Simonov A.G. (Moscow) One
possible approach to the short-term forecast of national/regional development
for a country in transitionNew approach to the short-term forecast national/regional development
is described. The main request consist in minimization of differencies
between technological coefficients of forecasted and observed matrixes.
The approach is heavily dependent from assestments by experts of the future
technological development. Calculations demonstrate the easyness of the
method realization and practical usefullness of the achieved results.

Hilchevskaya R.I. (Moscow) Problems
of ecological economics through the conception of sustainable developmentOn the base of conception of sustainable development the main
aspects of ecological economy and a role of Russian scientists are investigated.

Golichenko O.G. (Moscow) On
modelling of money growth influence of inflation and production level dynamicsThe description of economic agents interaction on micro level
is considered. It gives a possibility to install ties between key variables
of upper and down levels for a rather general type. It is shown, that among
the existing micro and macro analysis schemes there are only two cases
yielding to theoretical analysis. The first corresponds to the neoclassical
mechanism of desequilibrium regulation and the second presents the friction
mechanism of nominal rigidities. The approach proposed allows to remove
the polarity of the existing models at the expense of taking into account
producers inflation expectations and the introduction of adaptation mechanisms
to the emerging desequilibrium.

Koblenz-Mishke Yu.A. (Moscow) The
thresshold models of aggregate demand dynamicsA theoretical essay on consumption dynamics models reflecting
the influence of significant changes in the level and distribution of consumer
incomes. After considering the David threshold model the related models
accounting for the income distribution of wealthy consumers and the softness
of the income threshold were introduced and analyzed. Their applicability
to the contemporary Russian economy was discussed.

Shorgin S.Ya. (Moscow) Asymptotic
evaluation of optimal insurance tariffs on the base of individual claim
factorization model The subject of the paper is the investigation of the insurer'
surplus distribution for a set of insurance contracts at the time of all
contract' completion. Random claims are identically distributed with known
three moments. It is assumed that the insurance premiums are random variable.
There are obtained the asymptotic estimations for the surplus distribution
and for the optimal rate with garanteed the given probability of surplus
non negativity.

Khutoretsky A.B. (Novosibirsk) Model
of short-term equilibrium at house market analysis and applicationsThe formulation of the short-term equilibriums model at house
market simplifies the H. Wiesmeth' model and using it one can find equilibriums
by solving a linear programming problem and, more, it may be applicated
to various cases, for example to regulation of influences on house market.

Smolyak S.A. (Moscow) On
the estimation of k-thikness convex setsk-thickness of convex set G is defined as the supremum
of sum of (Haussdorff's) distances between sequential pairs of k+1
imbedded convex subsets of G. For 2-dimensional sets G it
is found the upper and lower bounds of this index increasing as k1/3.

Tambovtsev V.L. (Moscow) On
the typology of the contractsThe contracts are interpreted in the paper as the projects (normative
models) of combined coordinated actions that intend to do two or more subjects.
Thus a contract consists two logical parts: description of the future desired
results (including it distribution between parties of contract) and description
of the mechanism of the production of the results (including the distribution
of the actions between the parties). The different combinations of the
versions of the parts content determine the variety of the contract types.

Ovsienko Ju.V. (Moscow) Conditions
for socioeconomic reform
The author analyses the situation when some conditions are necessary for
economic development. These conditions are also necessary that any program
of socioeconomic reform be realized.

Zavelsky M.G. (Moscow) The
market for spillovers rights
Social division of labor generate to spillover benefits or costs. Difference
regarding rights to these effects are highly dangerous for society especially
if conditions to manage in regions of country differ very much and if workers
are mobile very small. The original market mechanism of economic effective
state regulation of these differences is proposed in this article.

Bagrinovsky K.A., Khrustalev E.Ju. (Moscow) Methodological
principles of the information system construction for planning and realization
of the large social economic projects and programs
The peculiarities of the construction of the large socioeconomic projects
and programs at present situation are discussed in this paper. Methods
for decision making and realizing by economic mechanism of the competition
type and new information technologies are proposed.

Braginsky O.B., Krichevsky I.E., Kunitsina N.N.
(Moscow) Modelling methods applying on
the base of enterprises integration into an industrial groupAn experience of applying of modeling methods on the base of efficiency
of some enterprises integration into an industrial group, its production
program optimization and long-term strategy choice are revealed in the
article.

Bakhtadze N.N., Lototsky V.A., Maximov E.M.,
Nikulina I.V., Yaralov A.A. (Moscow) Statistical
information systems using for marketing
The concept of statistical information system for analysis and forecasting
of pricing strategy of large trade firm is given. The robust and adaptive
predicting algorithms are developed which are effective for marketing,
accounting the Russian market specific features.

McKinnon R., Pill H. (USA) Credible
liberalizations and international capital flows: the " over-borrowing"
syndrome
When undertaking reform and stabilization programs, countries are prone
to excessive foreign borrowing, which ultimately proves unsustainable.
This phenomenon has been variously labeled the "over-borrowing syndrome"
and the "Walters Critique". This paper outlines a model, consistent
with rationality on the part of private agents; where such short run deviations
from sustainable behavior are caused by financial market failure. Because
banks fail as efficient information conduits between depositors and borrowers,
excessively optimistic expectations about the success of reform are created
amongst domestic residents, international investors and the policy authorities.
Initially such optimism is borne out by improved economic performance and
large inflows of foreign capital. It is only later that sustain ability
conditions bind and the economy collapses into a recession, financial crisis
and capital flight.
Previous work addressed whether to undertake structural reform in regimes
of perfect mobility or immobility of international capital. This paper
demonstrates that an interior solution – involving partial capital controls
– is preferable to either polar extreme. Ex ante welfare is maximized by
imposing a reserve requirement on capital inflows through the banking system
and similar taxes on other inflows. Direct controls on domestic consumer
credit and compulsory private saving programs are possible second-best
policy options.

Hillman A.L. (Israel) West
economic theory and transition to market economy: the public choice perspective
Two theoretical approaches to the transition process study are discussed:
one orthodoxal and another based on social choice theory. It is demonstrated
that the latter one gives appropriate explanation for some observed though
"undevisible" events.

Levita R.Ja. (Moscow) Social-psychology
component of institutional changes in economyOn the Russian statistical data the author analyses the disbalances
between social-psychology and organizational and law (right) components
of economic institutions under institutional government changes.

Smolyak S.A. (Moscow) On
the comparison of alternative with random outcomes
The structure of the comparison criteria of projects with random vector
outcomes is discussed. Such criteria are considered as the functionals
on the class of random alternatives. In order to prevent the economically
wrong decisions due to use of these functionals, they must be continuous,
monotone as well as mixture-invariant. Furthermore they have to provide
the possibility of local comparison of projects in the complex economic
systems. It is proved that given properties has only two-parameter criteria
family of the Masse's criteria type. This type is based on Laplace transformation
of probability distribution of alternative outcomes (within limit –- the
criteria of weighted expectation of alternative outcomes). It is found
out, for which parameter values these criteria stimulate the choice of
more risky alternatives (i.e. alternatives with large scatter of outcomes
vector). The peculiarities of the comparison of projects having time spreaded
outcomes are investigated.

Rotar V.I., Shorgin S.Ya. (Moscow) On
reinsurance of risks and insurer's retention
The maximal insurer's retention is calculated with provision for the existing
insurer's portfolio in the conditions of facultative quota reinsurance.
The bounds for the non-ruin probability of the insurance portfolio including
the new risk are regarded. The problems is solved using the model which
based on the central limit theorem.