How Populists Win When They Lose

The present is not remotely comparable to the interwar period, and today’s populists are not fascists. But the lesson from that era still holds: the choices made by established conservative elites, as much as the challenges posed by insurgent outsiders, determine the fate of democracy.

VIENNA – Today, it appears that every single election in Europe can be reduced to one central question: “Is it a win or a loss for populism?” Until the Netherlands’ election in March, a populist wave – or, as Nigel Farage, the former leader of the UK Independence Party, put it, a “tsunami” – seemed irresistible. Now, however, the wave has suddenly receded: following Emmanuel Macron’s big wins in France’s presidential and legislative elections, we are supposedly living in a “post-populist moment.”

Unfortunately, this view of populism’s rise and fall merits the label often attached to populism itself: simplistic. The notion of an unstoppable wave took for granted that both the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s election in the United States were triumphs for populism, rather than for establishment conservatives.

To be sure, both Farage and Trump are populists, but not because they criticize elites. After all, vigilance toward elites can in fact be a sign of democratic engagement. What distinguishes populists is their claim that they alone represent the “real people” or “the silent majority.” For populists, an election is never just about opposing policy views; it is about the personal corruption, immorality, and fundamental illegitimacy of all other contenders for power.

Jan-Werner Mueller says six months ago many on both sides of the Atlantic feared that the populist "tsunami" that swept through Britain and the US would also devastate the political landscape in Europe in 2017. They believed voters in the Netherlands, France and Germany - and possibly in Italy and Britain too - would duplicate the success of Trump and Brexit, as a result of the toxic politics that drove those campaigns. Yes, 51,9% of Britons voted for leaving the EU and Trump won 62,984,825 votes (46.4%) over Hillary Clinton 65,853,516 votes (48.5%).
But the Anglo-American phenomenon has been lost on European voters in this year's elections, because liberal forces in the Netherlands and France have counteracted the momentum. And it looks most likely that this trend will continue in the September election in Germany. The author maintains, even though populist contenders have lost in the Netherlands and France, their defeat is just "nominal" because the populist substance of their policies has been adopted and copied by mainstream politicians.
This is alarming because it reminds of "the interwar period, when conservatives opted to collaborate with authoritarian and fascist parties, democracy died as a result." Nigel Farage was the initiator of Brexit, but he was backed by prominent Tories - Michael Gove and Boris Johnson. The two now serve in Theresa May's cabinet. Although Trump reached out to the white working class, he ran as a GOP candidate "and received the blessing of Republican heavyweights such as Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich."
During of the election campaign, the Dutch centre-right Prime Minister Mark Rutte copied Wilders-like rhetoric – "telling immigrants that they should leave the country if they do not want to behave “normally.” Ahead of Britain's snap election Theresa May spoke like Trump, saying she were the only one to deliver Brexit, and urging for unity behind her “strong and stable” government." She also adopted Jeremy Corbyn's social obligation, with words straight out of Labour’s playbook.
The author says we are not turning the clock back "to the interwar period, and today’s populists are not fascists. But the lesson still holds: the choices made by established elites, as much as the challenges posed by insurgent outsiders, determine the fate of democracy. Those who collaborate with populists – or copy their ideas – must be held accountable."
The question is how reliable is populist rhetoric? Most often contenders in an election campign pay lip service to social issues they pledge to tackle - words spoken are not followed up by appropriate action or behaviour. In the Dutch election in March, Rutte was eager to reach out to supporters of his populist rival, Geert Wilders, by emulating xenophobic statements. He had beaten Wilders. Now he needs to move on and focus on his centre-right agenda.
What bothers the author is the bigotry and hypocrisy embraced by populists, who claim to have the "moral monopoly on representation and the policies." Seeking to divide a society or a country they advocate this us-versus-them language. They always "claim to be the sole legitimate representative" of the "real people," calling anyone who disagree with them a dissident or an enemy - enemy of the people.
The author fears that a "political culture is shifting to the right, without any kind of proper democratic authorization by citizens." Even if populists haven't gained executive power within the EU, they are not defeated. We have to ensure that this “post-populist moment” is here to stay, because we don't want to relive the dark days of the "interwar period".

"Democracy can thrive only when it enlists the devotion of those whom Lincoln called the common people. Democracy can hold that devotion only when it adequately respects their dignity by so ordering society as to assure to the masses of men and women reasonable security and hope for themselves and for their children." Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Professor Mueller seems worried about conservatives adopting increasingly populist stances and rhetoric. He should not be though, any more than he is worried about liberals' adoption of increasingly progressive stances and rhetoric, which so far as I can tell he is not at all worried about.

The polarization of politics is an organic response to polarization within our populations; as our nations become increasingly divided, between the progressives and the populists, our politicians must follow us, or risk being replaced. We citizens are at war now with one another for the soul of our civilization; we have shaken off our long apathy, and begun to demand our politicians pick a side in that war - our group, or the other group.

Populism will continue to rise with the frustration level produced by the traditional elites. Every country is different, but all have in common that the traditional elites have more and more failed to produce what they are elected and what they are paid for.

1 The become dominant and can become tyrannical but do not always
2 Their clothes are stolen by an major establishment party to strengthen that major party appeal
3 They effectively disappear into the night, but this can happen to any political party. It particularly seems to happen if the populist is a one club golfer and only wants to play mini-golf aka single issue tunnel vision

There are example of all three

They do however influence the political landscape and change it markedly and in some instances perpetually particularly in the first case where their policy miss-step can be bad news

They can also be resurgent if the thing that drove them towards the front is not dealt with. This is quite likely in Europe where economic policy inflexibility occurs due the metal jacket of the euro which padlocks the easy option of currency devaluation

The thing is whether the issues that drove the populist forward can actually be addressed. If they cannot be addressed then the best outcome for the populist is to be in second place lobbing dung at the incumbents. Coming second can be an achievement far from the loss proposed by many

Again and again I have had to point out on Pro Syn that opposition parties do not win, incumbents who hold the tactical advantage lose; thus gifting the seat to the opposition. If you want to know what is going on you look at why incumbents lose. Once the incumbents have lost credibility about their capability for solving the voters problems with the voter, the voter can only vote for the opposition, it is a default outcome

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