5 New Reasons China And Japan May Go To War Over Disputed Islands

The back-and-forth between China, Japan, and the U.S. over disputed islands in the East China Sea this week continued ratcheting up, exposing policies that could prevent any diplomatic solution.

China's new map:

Less than a week after Thanksgiving in the U.S. last year, China released its new "nine dash map" passport that made clear its South and East China Sea ambitions. Brushing off controversy at the time, China outraged many neighboring nations, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines whose territory the map annexed. Both countries refused to stamp the document, using a separate sheet of paper slipped into the book instead.

Forces should train to “fight and win battles,” the directive said. The strong words are in striking contrast to previous ones. Those had focused more on coordination within different branches of the PLA. In particular, the use of the word “dazheng,” Chinese for “fighting wars,” has not been seen before.

Japan was not mentioned in the directive. But this commentary in the People’s Liberation Army Daily conjures up images of the Japanese invasion of China during World War II. It goes on to suggest Japan is gathering other East Asian countries to quote, “contain China.”

Not itself a red flag, but Reuters reports an "increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming from senior officers in the People's Liberation Army."

But the combative streak speaks to profound shifts in Chinese politics and foreign policy that transcend the heat of the moment. The more provocative of these officers call for "short, sharp wars" to assert China's sovereignty. Others urge Beijing to "strike first", "prepare for conflict" or "kill a chicken to scare the monkeys".

They routinely denounce the Obama administration's recent "pivot" to Asia - without naming the United States, Ren in his Melbourne speech accused "external countries" of complicating disputes in Asia.

The U.S. picked sides:

Just one day after the U.S. and Japan got to work Thursday revising their defense treaty guidelines for the first time in15 years, Hillary Clinton issued China a "veiled warning."

In a meeting Friday with Japan's foreign minister, Clinton spelled out the U.S. belief that the disputed islands belonged to Japan, were under their control, and therefore under the U.S. security treaty with Tokyo.

Backing up Clinton's words, and as a counterpoint to China's response, the Japanese foreign minister said plainly: "Japan will not concede," and will, “uphold our fundamental position that the Senkakus are an inherent territory of Japan.”

Which all bodes poorly for peace and found the Economist Saturday saying the two countries look to be on an irreversible path. "China and Japan are sliding towards war" the magazine says in its most recent piece on the situation.

China paper calls for foreign military bases:

As part of its current $200 billion defense budget The Japan Times says China's foreign bases are for more than supplying and protecting trade routes. This in addition to news from a Chinese state-run newspaper advising the PLA Navy to build 18 overseas naval bases. It's an unofficial declaration and the locations are best estimates, but it's an interesting addition when considering the charged climate of the region.

The nationalism building in both China and Japan allows little room for any leader to be seen "selling out" their country by negotiating and without negotiations the next step may be more conflict rather than less.

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I suspect there is another reason. China has long been cooking its economic numbers and their government is likely fearful of what happens domestically when the house of cards comes down. War against your neighbors is a perfect diversion to political troubles at home. It just doesn't make sense as to why a country with an export dependent economy is willing to risk international condemnation (and likely trade sanctions) over some fishing territory and limited natural resources ... both of which they could probably gain access to through negotiations.