11.19.2012

Has Amazon really grown into a dangerous book-selling colossus and is that why traditional publishers should merge to defend themselves? Some people argue that the Penguin and Random House merger is coming too late. Apple's "agency model", following price fixing investigations, has gone out the window, or at least it has "softened". As a result, they argue, it's game over, Amazon has won.Too late? Game over? Yes, surely mergers could have started happening sooner but Time in legacy publishing is famously slow (it takes publishers on average 2 years to come out with a new book...) But I would argue that it's a physiologically sound move, one long awaited perhaps, but the right move all the same.

As soon as the Digital Revolution got going, there was talk that the Big Six would start merging and that you'd soon get the Big Five, then the Big Four etc ending perhaps with only the Big Three or Big Two. All facing Amazon, like small Davids facing Goliath, because Amazon is about three times bigger than Random House and Penguin combined (and they're slated to be the biggest publishing house in the industry).This said, we should start by noting a very simple thing about Amazon: it's NOT just a publishing house. They've got a limited number of imprints (essentially 5) and some of them sound rather small with a relatively modest number of titles, at least so far... Amazon is deliberately vague about its Kindle sales figures, though it's likely that digital sales outpace printed. So the total sales figures for Amazon (over $48 billion in 2011), while impressive, don't concern just the book trade but everything else it sells, from electronic gadgets to clothes. For example, Amazon reports that in the last quarter of 2011 the number of Appstore for Android customers has nearly tripled from the previous quarter (with them downloading more apps in Q4 than all of the previous quarters combined), and that the number of Instant Video customers has more than doubled year-over-year (with the number of streams increasing 300 percent from the previous quarter).Now what is the proportion of books in its overall sales, nobody knows. But what that does is downsize the difference between Random House/Penguin's combined sales projected at some $4 billion. Amazon is not likely to be 10 or 12 times larger since, as a publisher, it's much smaller than the total sales figure suggests...Because Amazon, more than a publisher, is actually an e-trader: it's a platform to sell books, both digital and printed. But even here Amazon's future is not necessarily all that rosy. There's even talk that Amazon is running into a brick wall, quite literally, for example with that release on 20 November of best-selling author Tim Ferris's book The 4 Hour Chef (see article below). Everyone's talking about it: how Amazon gave Ferris a 6-digit advance and now the author can't even place his new book anywhere in brick and mortar stores not to mention Barnes and Noble that flatly refused to carry the book, or so goes the gossip...

But there's more to it. On the e-reader front, competition has increased, Kobo , a Canadian upstart recently acquired by a Japanese e-tailer, is now spreading everywhere in the world and Barnes and Noble's Nook, for long restricted to the American market, has grown by leaps and bounds. Following a recent $605 million cash injection by Microsoft, it is set to expand in the UK this autumn. At this point, it would seem that Amazon controls some 60% of the digital market, admittedly a huge portion, but a lot less than the 90% with which it had started some four years ago.

Then there's another worrisome bit of news for e-reader producers: a recent surveyshowed that a third of e-readers were used only once by their new owners! And fully 25% of the people who were interviewed to explain their rejection of e-readers flatly stated that they preferred printed books. The Digital Revolution may be hitting a brick wall! In any case, it's not as pervasive as most of us think and it certainly calls into question Amazon's business model (which consists in selling e-reading devices at or below cost to gain market shares and then make up for the loss or lack of profit through content, i.e. book sales).

Also, of late, Amazon has run into problems with customers regarding book reviews. It has understandably tried to "clean up" the system that had become corrupted by cozy reviews from family and friends. But its algorithm to flush out the corrupted reviews ended angering a lot of people, especially writers (who tend to write reviews more easily and more of them than average readers). Many writers have found to their surprise that Amazon was taking down perfectly bona fidae reviews and hurting honest people, most famously Joe Konrath who posted about this on his blog.

So Amazon's not doing quite so well these days...

Indeed, by opening its doors to self-published authors without putting up any gate keepingor quality control systems, it has been flooded with poorly edited books, full of typos, ill-structured and badly written - not to mention semi-pirated books using content widely available on Internet that are brazenly passed for something new. As a result, in some quarters, Amazon is viewed as a slush pile publisher - not a reputation to be envied. I have no doubts that at some point Amazon will rectify the situation. In the meantime, to be published on Amazon is just not the same as being published by a traditional house.

To be sure, the stigma attached to self-publishing has been largely removed. It's certainly one of the major achievements of the Digital Revolution, marked by the amazing successes of authors like Amanda Hocking, John Locke, Joe Konrath and Bella Andre, but the fact remains that indies do not enjoy the same reputation as traditionally published authors.

There are really two possible game changers that could dramatically change the future of publishing: discoverability and distribution. Let's look at them in turn:

(1) Discoverability: It is a problem for publishers (it was recently discussed in a very interesting conference in New York) but for an indie, it is a nearly unsurmountable challenge. A self-published author simply does not have access to the publishing industry's major literary critics, papers and magazines, nor for that matter, to the industry's major competitions and prizes, like, for example, the National Book Awards, the Pulitzer or the Man Booker Prize. Amazon is well aware of this, so it's no surprise that it has set up regular imprints modeled on traditional publishing and hired experienced professionals to run them.

(2) Distribution: Here traditional publishers are laboring under a constraint that does not affect Amazon: they have traditionally set up a system with bookstores and other distributions points that allows the stores to returnall unsold books, without however controlling how much stores order on the new title list. As a result they tend to order too much and the returns eat up the profits of the publishers (and royalties of authors).

This is not a viable model. Why is Amazon not affected? Simple, they have their Create Space division that prints books on demand (so-called POD technology) - no storage problem, no distribution problem.

The big question (and the surprise) is that publishers have not taken on Amazon on its own ground: why not move to POD publishing?

Why not set up POD machines in book stores, machines that would be dedicated to publishing their titles, with copies of the printed books nicely displayed around the machine and online terminals to "leaf through" their books in a virtual manner, the way one does on the Kindle store. And while your book is printed, you could sip a tea or coffee or munch on a pastry, since it takes a little time to be printed - too much perhaps, the POD machines are still clunky but surely they could be improved: never underestimate the advances of technology... In short, successful bookstores would be the ones with POD machines and the capacity to turn themselves into attractive coffee houses and community centers for events to meet authors etc.

Under the circumstances, if Big Publishers merge, and even medium ones merge too, thus acquiring more financial means and the capacity to move into new directions - like POD publishing - their future could look a lot better than we all have been led to believe up to now.

Of course, how innovative Big Publishers are likely to be is anyone's guess.

Still, I don't believe we shouldview Amazon as a Big Black Wolf or even as a Colossus in publishing. As I've blogged before, Amazon is certainly the Next Big Publisher. But it's more than that, or rather it's something slightly different: it's primarily a book trading e-platform and secondarily a POD publisher (with CreateSpace).

To conclude: there is space for Amazon AND the Big Six, sorry I mean the Big Five. Consider this: if instead of viewing Amazon as a rival (which it is and isn't at the same time), publishers could start using it for what it is (an e-platform) and why not, collaborate and even ally themselves with Amazon in particular areas, like, for example, assist in cleaning up the book review system? If a book quality gatekeeping sytem was set up, and if it were madereliable and efficient in helping readers search for the kind of material they like to read, I think everyone would gain, publishers and readers alike!

What is your opinion? Do you think that the move to merge forces is coming too late for the publishing industry? That Amazon will remain alone as the Big Winner of the Digital Revolution?

Two lifelong passions: writing fiction and painting. One serious job: economist specialized in humanitarian and development aid. One hobby: cooking.

Work: 25 years with United Nations - ended career as FAO Director for Europe/Central Asia. Before that: banking, editing, free-lance journalism, college teaching, marketing, and always writing and painting.

Published in English (digitally on all platforms, including Amazon, see author page; printed books from CreateSpace):- Science fiction/Speculative Fiction/Climate fiction: Gateway to Forever (2014)- Romance/ Boomer Lit: Crimson Clouds (2012; originally: A Hook in the Sky)- Cross genre (historical, paranormal, thriller): Luna Rising - Short stories: Death on Facebook, Short Stories for the Digital Age (2011)- Poetry: contributed to "Freeze Frame", anthology edited by Oscar Sparrow (2012)- Non fiction: "The Development Dilemma", an essay on development aid (1990 - out of print);

11.07.2012

A human trafficking awareness poster from the Canadian Department of Justice. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

People for sale in Canada? Not just Canada, people are for sale everywhere! Slavery in the form of human trafficking is one of the most profitable businesses in the world...and most despicable. For years, one of the major figures in American journalism, Nicholas D. Kristof, New York Times columnist led a personal battle against modern day slavery. He recently wrote an opinion piece (see here) trying to, as he puts it, "giving voice to the voiceless". Victims don't dare to speak up. And if you don't speak up loudly, politicians don't listen.

To be a human rights activist is an UPHILL battle!

In that piece, he reports on how President Obama's landmark speech against modern slavery on 25 September (before the Clinton Global Initiative, see article below) was met by shrugs from "many of us in the news media". Why? Because "it didn’t fit into the political narrative. It wasn’t controversial, so — yawn — it wasn’t really news." Kristof went on to explain how, despite the yawns, this issue is important: a major American legislation against human trafficking is at risk. While "Republicans have done superb work on the issue in the past", says Kristof, "now they're balking at straightforward re-authorization of the
Trafficking Victims Protection Act - landmark legislation against human
trafficking. What are they thinking?" he asks, sounding quite
disgusted!

Fortunately Obama was re-elected. And now, we can hope that this piece of legislation will be renewed asap, just as it should!

Still, it's depressing that in our day and age, more than 150 years after slavery has been abolished, we have to argue the point. That there are people out there that don't think slavery is an important issue or that Kristof is plain boring about it (yes, I found criticism of his stance on Internet!).

How can anyone be in favor of human trafficking? Kristof confesses that he became "passionate about human trafficking ever since [he]encountered a village
in Cambodia 15 years ago where young girls were locked up, terrified,
as their virginity was sold to the highest bidder." My view is that we can all support the fight against modern day slavery without ever having been to Cambodia or witnessed the terrible scenes Kristof reports.

The statistics prove that human trafficking is increasing exponentially, and according to at least one expert, Anthony Steen, Chairman of the Human Trafficking Foundation, it's ten times worse today than it was 200 years ago in the heyday of slavery. Estimates about the number of victims vary: from a minimum of 12 to a maximum of 100 million people but, given its illegal nature, the numbers are clearly unreliable. Also the very definition of slavery is complex as it touches on a series of crimes that range from sexual exploitation to forced organ transplants. Perhaps the worse aspect is the large percentage of women and children affected. One thing is certain: trafficking victims are on the increase. Just to give one small example that is nevertheless indicative of the overall trend: newly released British data show authorities identified 946 trafficking victims last year, an increase from 710 in 2010.

And it's a highly lucrative business: according to Europol, the European Union’s criminal intelligence agency, trafficked children can earn more than $200,000 a year each for criminal gangs who train them to be pickpockets, beg and rob, or who force them into prostitution. And of course torture and sexual abuse are used to control them. Indeed, human traficking is predicted to outpace drug trafficking...

Now I have to confess a secret to you: I wasn't really aware of the extent of this on-going tragedy until I met Magda Olchawska, a hugely talented Polish film maker and author who's now working on an exciting film, ANNA AND MODERN DAY SLAVERY, a suspenseful and scary investigation of human trafficking, carried out by Anna, a lovely and generous young woman who's also a brilliant hacker. Anna leaves a highly paid government job to set up an underground Organization that exposes the horrors of sex slavery.

Here's the poster for the film:

Here's the movie trailer:

Beautiful, haunting music, isn't it?

Well, perhaps you can't be like the brave Anna of the film, leave your job and fight a gang of human traffickers, but as citizens we should all try to be aware of the problem, make our politicians react and ensure that proper legislation is in place AND implemented! And as writers and film makers of course, any work aiming at exposing this scandal is more than welcome!

Curious about Magda Olchawska and how she came about to make this film (due to be released in 2013)? Here's an interview I made and that I have the pleasure to share with you:

Question: Tell us, Magda, what got you interested in the issue of human trafficking?

An amazing gal I e-met on Twitter: Lynn Robertson. I read one of Lynn’s poems and decided to do something about this horrifying situation. That's how the idea for Anna came about.Did you write the film script or is it based on someone else's novel, novella or short story?

I wrote the script, which is based on imaginary situation and characters. Rather than focusing on the victims, the film is centered on the process of trafficking and how many people in high places are involved in this “business”.

Major difficulties in filming ? From what you told me, editing has turned out to be a problem!

Yes, the editor pulled out after realizing how much work that is. I’m going to edit the movie myself. I’m an editor at the end of the day...

How long does such a task take - what do you have 3 hours of film that you have to cut down to one hour and quarter or so?

Much more! We have over 12 hours of footage and the editing can take up to six months or even longer. It really depends.

It must be damn difficult to do. How do you proceed?

I have a clear idea of what I want and which scenes I’m going to use so hopefully this process isn’t going to be never ending! Filmmaking is difficult especially if you do it on a tight budget. But I love filmmaking so I really don’t mind looking after my baby JWas the film entirely shot in Poland with Polish actors?

Yes, the film was entirely shot in Poland but we had an international cast and crew. The actors came from Poland, UK, Spain and Italy.

That's quite an international team! How did it work out in practice? In what language did you work?

It was a fantastic experience, everyone pitched in! We worked in multiple languages but the film was shot in English and just a little bit of Polish.

How long did it take you to shoot the film? A month?

Much less! 9 days. Our budget didn't allow us to shoot for longer than that.

Difficulties to obtain permission for street scenes and the like?

We didn’t get any permissions to shoot. We were trying to choose the locations wisely so we wouldn’t have to go through the hassle of getting permissions. They're both time consuming and expensive, we didn’t have money in our budget for that.

So you had financial difficulties. Wasn't the Indiegogo funding that you got enough?

The IndieGoGo funding was enough for the shooting. But not enough for the post-production. One of the producers has kindly agreed to pay for the editing equipment, which saved me loads of time from running another Indiegogo campaign.

I certainly hope people respond! But let me ask you, how did you pick the main actress? She has a beautiful, sensitive face, does she have previous experience in film making or is this a first big role for her?

I met Paula Preston over a year ago in London and while writing the script I was thinking of her. So when she accepted the role I was thrilled.

This was the first time Paula has been a lead in the feature film. So it was also a big adventure for her.

What did Paula do before she worked for you?

Paula's professional career includes film, TV and theater roles as an actress, dancer and presenter. Recent work includes Frankenstein's Wedding (BBC4), Resonance (directed by Colin Teague), YMMBT (West End Theatre), Whose Play Is it Anyway (Edinburgh Festival), School Play (Criterion Theatre), Lady MacBeth (Arts Ed) and Curriculum Bites (Presenter BBC).

That's quite a career! And this is not your first film either, I know, and you've won awards.

No, I’ve made many shorts before. One of them, “The Man with the Spying Glass” has won the award of best short film at the 2011 Ballston Spa Film Festival. However, “Anna and Modern Day Slavery” is my first feature film.Once the editing of the film is done, where are you showing it?

We will probably try to hit a few A List Film Festivals and see if we get accepted. We will also organize community screenings and of course the movie will be available free of charge on the Internet.

Free of charge? That's very generous of you and a boost to the cause! Any more movies or ideas you've got up your sleeve and that you plan on doing next year?

LOL, I always love your questions. Of course I'm always working on something else. I've already started working on the second Anna script and I'm really hoping I'll be able to shoot "Two People" next year http://magdaolchawska.com/entry/12

So keep your fingers crossed that I'll be able to pull the funding together...

Magda by the sea

Thanks, Magda, and I am keeping my fingers crossed and can't wait to see your film! And the second Anna film too...

Two lifelong passions: writing fiction and painting. One serious job: economist specialized in humanitarian and development aid. One hobby: cooking.

Work: 25 years with United Nations - ended career as FAO Director for Europe/Central Asia. Before that: banking, editing, free-lance journalism, college teaching, marketing, and always writing and painting.

Published in English (digitally on all platforms, including Amazon, see author page; printed books from CreateSpace):- Science fiction/Speculative Fiction/Climate fiction: Gateway to Forever (2014)- Romance/ Boomer Lit: Crimson Clouds (2012; originally: A Hook in the Sky)- Cross genre (historical, paranormal, thriller): Luna Rising - Short stories: Death on Facebook, Short Stories for the Digital Age (2011)- Poetry: contributed to "Freeze Frame", anthology edited by Oscar Sparrow (2012)- Non fiction: "The Development Dilemma", an essay on development aid (1990 - out of print);

11.02.2012

With Obama as President, America will go the way of Spain and Italy. That's what Romney just said, earning the ire and justified contempt of both Italian and Spanish citizens. The media here in Italy is full of angry headlines, including the Sole 24 Ore, a highly respectable rightist business paper (something like the Italian Financial Times). Is Romney really so desperate for votes that he needs to insult two ancient European countries that have always been loyal allies of America?

During the last debate with Obama, I had noticed that Romney mentioned how the Obama government spending would lead America straight into a situation like Greece's. At the time, that was picked up by few people: presumably, the American electorate of Greek descent is not very large and the remark passed (nearly) unnoticed. But this time, he really put his foot in it, this is BIG! Americans of Italian descent and Hispano-Americans are millions! Do they enjoy the way Romney disparages the old home country? If Romney ever wins and becomes the next American President, he can be certain that he will not be received with roses in Southern Europe. Right now, they all see RED!Particularly if you consider - as most Europeans do - that both the 2008 Big Recession and the unprecedented swell in the American debt have been the work of a succession of Republican administrations, starting with Reagan's deregulation and ending with Bush's two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan. So if Southern Europe is in the mess it is in today, it is largely as a result of a complex series of events that can be traced to both the collapse of Wall Street in 2008 and the American wars in the Middle East. Sure, local corruption and the dead weight of bureaucracy and red tape have added to the pain, but it all began as a result of investors looking to line their pockets through attacking the Sovereign Debt of relatively weak states (after Dubai in 2009 they moved to Greece, remember?)

US President Barack Obama and Italian President Giorgio Napolitano in Rome (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If Europeans could vote, the gap between Obama and Romney wouldn't be razor thin the way it is in America. Romney scares Europeans, indeed most of the world, with his astounding lack of diplomacy - but then Americans have never cared about their world image, have they?Over here, on this side of the pond, we are all keeping our fingers crossed...for Obama! And if Republicans really can't stomach Obama, hopefully they will abstain and not vote for a man who is certain to create havoc in the international community, turning it from a "community" to a theater of war in his determination to make of America a new "uber alles" nation...

Two lifelong passions: writing fiction and painting. One serious job: economist specialized in humanitarian and development aid. One hobby: cooking.

Work: 25 years with United Nations - ended career as FAO Director for Europe/Central Asia. Before that: banking, editing, free-lance journalism, college teaching, marketing, and always writing and painting.

Published in English (digitally on all platforms, including Amazon, see author page; printed books from CreateSpace):- Science fiction/Speculative Fiction/Climate fiction: Gateway to Forever (2014)- Romance/ Boomer Lit: Crimson Clouds (2012; originally: A Hook in the Sky)- Cross genre (historical, paranormal, thriller): Luna Rising - Short stories: Death on Facebook, Short Stories for the Digital Age (2011)- Poetry: contributed to "Freeze Frame", anthology edited by Oscar Sparrow (2012)- Non fiction: "The Development Dilemma", an essay on development aid (1990 - out of print);

As I am writing, the finance ministers of the Eurozone are holding a conference call on Greece to figure out how to avoid a Grexit. Views are still widely divergent on how to proceed and don't expect a solution to emerge today. But there's no doubt that the next four weeks will be crucial.The IMF suggests Greece needs another debt cutback, Germany is against it. At most, it seems it will consider a debt buyback (this is known as the "Asmussen Plan").

Meanwhile rumors are flying around the Internet, see articles below. It would seem the Troika (i.e. experts from the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Commission sent to Athens to oversee conditions to release bailout money) whose report is eagerly awaited, is about to tell the Eurogroup of financial ministers: “It is clear that Greece is off track and there is no chance they will
cut the debt to 120 percent of GDP in 2020 as envisaged. It will be
rather 136%. New prior actions will be needed, on top of the existing
[ones] before any new tranches of eurozone and IMF emergency loans to Greece can be paid." Bloggers have zeroed in on the sentence I've bolded here. Adding to the buzz, German news magazine Der Spiegel reported in this week’s edition that the Troika is to propose a debt restructuring for Greece that would require public-sector lenders to take heavy losses - meaning you and me, as taxpayers, will get hit in our pocketbook.

That's something that stirs up Germans who from the start of the crisis have felt no sympathy at all for the Greeks whom they view as "profligate and corrupt".

Now we don't know yet whether this conclusion will be part of the Troika report and even if it were, there's really nothing new in this. Only one fact is certain: if the Greek government doesn't get the next tranche of its €130 billion bailout plan, i.e. 32 billion Euros it needs to stay solvent, in 10 days funds will have dried out, the government machine will grind to a halt.

Last week the statistics were finally in proving once and for all the uselessness of austerity measures: both the IMF and Eurostat reports show that despite the push for austerity, EUdebt has continued to increase. Greece is among the European countries that have made most progress in closing the budget gap, yet overall debt load has soared. Greece’s ratio of debt to gross domestic product has hit a new high of 170 percent. Experts all agree now (including the IMF) that a less rigid stance on austerity is needed, that debt relief is inevitable over the long run if Greece is to return to meaningful growth - the only way for it to repay its debt obligations.

But is debt relief around the corner? Hardly. European politicians are mum on the subject, they fear losing votes from their taxpayers who'd have to foot the bill. In the meantime the situation for average Greek citizens is steadily getting worse.

In the last three years since the launch of austerity policies,
the Greek economy has contracted by 25 percent, unemployment has reached
the highest levels in Europe, together with Spain, hitting young
people the hardest: one out of two is unemployed. The young Greeks that
have both an education and experience are leaving their country to find
work abroad: Greece is leaking its young and brave.

Time for Greece to exit the Euro? It would seem the cost exacted from Greece to receive bailout funds may have now far exceeded the (potential) benefits. Let me count the ways, just hitting on the most obvious "wounds" and I'm sure my Greek readers can add more to this necessarily short list:

400, 000 children go hungry. That's right, in the "rich" Euro zone, there's so much poverty that people go actually hungry and some 400,000 children in Greece are affected, that's almost one third of the total population under 15 years old! People stand in line for donated food, something no one has seen in Europe since World War II. The government has just passed a law allowing supermarkets to sell expired food at a discount;

the National Health system has collapsed and people can't get medicine or treatment; there are some harrowing cases of cancer gone untreated for too long with heart-breaking suffering, cases recently documented in the New York Times reporting the remarkable selfless support given by some generous Greek doctors to the patients who cannot pay for their cures;

the education budget will be hit: for example, serious consideration is reportedly given to suppressing some 2000 posts of assistant professors at university level; cutting back on education and research is a sure recipe to consign a country to a permanent under-developed status;

the cultural heritage and historical monuments are threatened by austerity cuts, maintenance has already ground to a halt; clearly such an approach threatens one of Greece's major sources of wealth: tourism;

business can't get the credit it needs to run daily operations as banks are emptied of cash and face collapse; as a result, the number of bankruptcies of otherwise perfectly healthy businesses is on the rise;

the lack of savings is threatening the economy: for the past three years, Greeks have pulled their savings out of their home banks and placed their money abroad; there's a list of some 2,000 Greeks who have opened accounts in Switzerland that is at the center of an on-going growing scandal exposing a culture of corruption, with several Greek politicians and the government trying to cover up for their buddies (business leaders, journalists, architects, employees of the Ministry of Finance...);

the single industrial sector that is still going strong in Greece, shipbuilding, enjoys full immunity from taxes: historically, no Greek government has ever touched it, no austerity measure, no tax is envisaged, nothing; as a result, no relief or push can be expected from this sector that is "frozen" out of the economic picture...

the political rise of the neo-nazi Golden Dawn party closely linked to the police is a growing threat to democracy: most recently, 15 anti-fascist protesters arrested by the police after a clash with Golden Dawn activists reported that they had been tortured and humiliated in Abu-Ghraib style while detained at the Attica General Police Directorate; also, the journalist who uncovered the scandal of the Swiss bank accounts is facing trial three days after his arrest - an unusually fast response from the authorities - while Golden Dawn party members accused of wrongdoing go free and relatively unhampered (trials facing them take a slow course as usual).

So should Greece exit the Euro? No so simple. On the other side of the balance, a Grexit would be extremely costly for Greece:

10 percent imediately lopped off gross domestic product in the first year after a return to the Drachma, according to the IMF;

the new Drachma would be worth between 30 and 50% of the Euro according to most economists;

inflation would explode as consumers and business would have to pay 50 to 70% more for imported inputs: Greece imports nearly 40 percent of its food, most of its medicine and almost all of its oil and natural gas;

Greece exports very little: exports of manufactured products account for only 10 percent of
gross domestic product, compared with a 30 percent average for the rest
of the euro zone.

That means the boost from a cheap Drachma would have relatively limited effects on exports. Greece is not well poised to take advantage of
devaluation: setting aside shipbuilding,
nationalization policies that followed the troubled 1970s has caused an
erosion of the industrial base, a flight from agriculture and absorption
of redundant employees in the government bureaucracy (which explains
the exceptionally large government bureaucracy).

But Greece draws income from other sources, like tourism and it does successfully sell its olive oil and dairy products (yogurt, cheese) abroad. Could a cheap currency help kick start economic growth, the way it did for Argentina? Not so certain. There may well be a trickle down effect on the rest of the economy but it's likely to be both small and take time.

Also consider the logistics: a departure from the Euro cannot be accomplished overnight. It requires complex legal procedures generating tremendous uncertainty and more capital flight. Already, big operators in Greece like Vodafone and Diageo bring back their cash to Britain every day to limit their exposure. Also, as mentioned above, since the beginning of the crisis everyone, from French and German banks once very present in Greece to Greek citizens, have taken their money out of Greece to safe havens and foreign banks have sold off their holdings.

So is the scene ready for Grexit? Tourism operators, hoteliers, business leaders in Greece are understandably against leaving the Euro: a grexit would be "bad for business".

Would it be bad for the Eurozone as a whole? Europeans are weary: what about the domino effect? Could Grexit bring down the whole Eurozone? While this should properly be the subject for another pos, here's a hint: Greece only accounts for some 2 percent of overall Eurozone gross domestic product, but it's not a simple matter of numbers...

My opinion? I think Greece should stay in but the bailout should be done keeping in mind:- the population's basic needs in terms of health and education: hunger and physical suffering in 21st century Europe is not acceptable;- fiscal equity: everyone should contribute, including the rich and shipbuilders; tax evasion is not acceptable;- preserving the cultural heritage and historical monuments for future generations and of course tourism: it remains one of Greece's most important sources of income.

Two lifelong passions: writing fiction and painting. One serious job: economist specialized in humanitarian and development aid. One hobby: cooking.

Work: 25 years with United Nations - ended career as FAO Director for Europe/Central Asia. Before that: banking, editing, free-lance journalism, college teaching, marketing, and always writing and painting.

Published in English (digitally on all platforms, including Amazon, see author page; printed books from CreateSpace):- Science fiction/Speculative Fiction/Climate fiction: Gateway to Forever (2014)- Romance/ Boomer Lit: Crimson Clouds (2012; originally: A Hook in the Sky)- Cross genre (historical, paranormal, thriller): Luna Rising - Short stories: Death on Facebook, Short Stories for the Digital Age (2011)- Poetry: contributed to "Freeze Frame", anthology edited by Oscar Sparrow (2012)- Non fiction: "The Development Dilemma", an essay on development aid (1990 - out of print);