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Putin will lose Ukraine through stupidity

Paul Sheehan

The imperial meddling of Vladimir Putin will be tainted for years to come by this incident.

The mind-boggling stupidity of the armed masked men at the crash site of the Malaysia Airlines plane, and their blatantly lying superiors, has changed the equation in Ukraine and Europe. The murder of 298 civilians by Russian-backed criminals is creating positives out of a disastrous negative.

Those positives can prove significant. So significant that, after the criminal investigation of the destruction of flight MH17 is completed, Russia can lose its right to host the 2018 football World Cup.

Not all sanctions involve trade. Shunning has its place. During the World Cup final in Rio de Janeiro, Russian President Vladimir Putin sat next to the President of Brazil and the president of FIFA. If Russia is found to have sponsored terrorism, then sought to cover up a mass murder, many nations will not want to see Russia and Putin rewarded with the world’s most-watched sporting event.

The imperial meddling of Putin will be tainted for years to come by this incident. Ukrainians have been galvanised. They have witnessed the murder of innocents, the appalling conduct of separatists at the crash scene and the implausible denials by Russian puppets, notably Alexander Borodai, the self-styled prime minister of the Donetsk people's republic. Faced with overwhelming evidence of self-incrimination, Borodai said: “It is very simple to disprove it. All of the information that comes through the internet is practically all lies.”

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This tactic of brazen blanket denial actually works in Russia, where the state media has been whitewashing reality and shunting blame onto the Ukrainian government. Putin remains popular as a Russian nationalist standing up to the West.

The rest of the world has had its eyes opened about the reality of the separatist movement in Ukraine. Many of the armed so-called rebels are actually local criminals. Others are Russians who have been paid to fight in Ukraine. The use of heavy arms inside Ukraine, just months after an orderly presidential election produced a clear winner, has alarmed most residents in the Russian-speaking eastern provinces on whose behalf the manufactured insurrection is taking place.

The fingerprints of Vladimir Putin are all over this.

As for the destruction of flight MH17, on Saturday the US embassy in Kiev issued an unusually blunt and detailed account of events that is unlikely to be contradicted by the criminal investigation to come: “We assess that flight MH17 was likely downed by a SA-11 surface-to-air missile from separatist-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine. We base this judgment on several factors.

“Over the past month, we have detected an increasing amount of heavy weaponry to separatist fighters crossing the border from Russia into Ukraine. Last weekend, Russia sent a convoy of military equipment with up to 150 vehicles including tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and multiple rocket launchers to the separatist. We also have information indicating that Russia is providing training to separatist fighters at a facility in south-west Russia, and this effort included training on air defence systems.

“Pro-Russian separatist fighters have demonstrated proficiency with surface-to-air missile systems and have downed more than a dozen aircraft over the past few months, including two large transport aircraft.

“At the time that flight MH17 dropped out of contact, we detected a surface-to-air missile (SAM) launch from a separatist-controlled area in south-eastern Ukraine. We believe this missile was an SA-11…

“Social media postings on Thursday show an SA-11 system travelling through the separatist-controlled towns of Torez and Snizhne, near the crash site and assessed location of the SAM launch …

“Ukraine also operates SA-11 systems, but we are confident no Ukrainian air defence systems were within range of the crash. Ukrainian forces have also not fired a single surface-to-air missile during the conflict, despite often complaining about violations of their airspace by Russian military aircraft.

“Shortly after the crash, separatists – including the self-proclaimed “Defence Minister” of the Donetsk people’s republic, Igor Strelkov – claimed responsibility for shooting down a military transport plane on social media …

“Audio data provided to the press by the Ukrainian security service was evaluated by intelligence community analysts who confirmed these were authentic conversations between known separatist leaders, based on comparing the Ukraine-released internet audio to recordings of known separatists.”

On Monday I suggested Ukraine should hold a plebiscite on separation, to allow the country to shed Russian influence by allowing any region contiguous with Russia to vote to return to Russia if it wished. A plebiscite would be an aggressive form of democracy. It would call Putin’s bluff.

Based on the events of the past week, Russia would be fortunate to harvest a small rump of Ukraine. The rest of the country, most of it, would reject Russia. And Putin would have lost Ukraine.

168 comments

Putin is beginning to finally be seen as the peasant bully he is. And not before time.

Commenter

J Walker

Date and time

July 23, 2014, 10:28PM

Perhaps you have unrealistic expectations of the Russians ? How is Putin different to Kruschev ? Do you think all the Nazis in Germany just evaporated because they lost WW2 ? I suggest the Russians are what they are, what are you going to do - have WW3 to change them ? They lost the Cold War, the transition to another mindset will always be slow. You cannot impose democracy, you can only make conditions right for it to happen.

Commenter

adam

Location

yarrawonga

Date and time

July 24, 2014, 6:31AM

These stooges will never stop trying to get their old comrades off the hook, the trouble for them is they just don't understand that modern media and the internet circumvents the old gatekeepers of news stories.

People don't need newspapers or 'official' sources to see what its happening on the ground, modern phones effectively allow just about anyone to record exactly what is happening, whether its the plume of rocket launch, insurgents removing black boxes, or trucks removing missile launchers back to Russia.

Commenter

SteveH.

Date and time

July 24, 2014, 7:31AM

Take the World Cup of Russia and prepare for WWIII. The West is enjoying Putin's defenceless position. Russia should rightly suffer. However tread carefully. It is one of the reasons why Abbott's tough guy routine needs to be kept in check. Nothing more dangerous than a wounded bear.

Commenter

bozo

Date and time

July 24, 2014, 7:44AM

How we love to agree with one another when it comes to condemnation without understanding. Ever since "we won the war" with Russia, we've been lording it over and provoking the Russians. So many in the US intelligence and military services with such a long memory, often with families brutalized in the past by the communist regime to avenge. Fooling around in Georgia and the Ukraine to provoke Russia and try to whittle their power away. Attacking the strong leaders countries like this need to get through very, very tough times that WE - yes, we - helped to create in Russia. We treat them like Germany after World War I to boot, and with all of this wonder why they've teetered on the brink of becoming a fascist state and get a little nationalistic. So many free thinking individuals mobilized by our press into toeing a line. If we had engaged with post-Soviet Russia more sincerely and with less vitriol, we might not be here today. Why not think for yourself and avoid imagining your own thoughts represent original insights?

Commenter

adboughton

Location

Sydney

Date and time

July 24, 2014, 8:27AM

There is nothing wrong with Russians. Putin is just a bully with powerand apparently billions of Russia's money. So also just a common thief.

Commenter

J Walker

Date and time

July 24, 2014, 8:57AM

Paul for someone who is based here in Australia you have come up with some very strong opinions. My expertise in this area is nothing compared to yours but I feel you have leapt to a lot of conclusions that are better left to the real experts and left for an inquiry. This tragedy happened in a war zone and there are conflicting arguments and reasons - so before we start pointing the finger we better find out what really happened and why. There is a lot at stake!

Commenter

Darcy

Location

Sydney

Date and time

July 24, 2014, 8:58AM

Of course, let's try to be honest, even at an emotional time for our nation. 1. What about American "thugs" who shot down a passenger flight a few years ago. Were they brought to justice? 2. Even American officials are beginning to say MH17 was probably shot down by accident.3. If supplying arms to countries who commit atrocities is going to be viewed as unacceptable (which I believe it should be!) then again, surely America, France, Britain, and potentially Australia should prepare for the same kind of criticism Russian is presently receiving.

Of course this is an appalling incident. But let's be honest, and treat Russia in the same way we are prepared to treat an often lying America, for instance. Just remember the Snowdon revelations...

Commenter

Let us be honest

Date and time

July 24, 2014, 9:01AM

@ Lets be honest - Two wrongs don't make a right.Lets call each topic as it happens. The US has a litany of shame to aim up to. BTW the plane they shot down in the Middle East they did take ownership for and financially compansated the victims families. The actual captain on the ship got off with a slap on the wrist. Here nobody will say "they did it". In fact the complete opposite.

Commenter

wennicks

Date and time

July 24, 2014, 10:18AM

Lets call this what it really is a fight between the various energy interests looking to control or in the case of Russia limit access to gas reserves in the Eastern Ukraine. Throw on top of this historical animosities between the largely ethnic Russian population in the east whom suffered under the Nazis and Western Ukrainians whom suffered under the Bolsheviks during the 30's and you have a recipe for conflict.This has been exacerbated by the United States funding various groups in the Western Ukraine some of whom were nationalists and fascists with no concept of the rule of law....just like in Syria the funding of the wrong groups has just blown up in the CIA's face with the ISIS extremists now holding large parts of Iraq and Syria and undoing the lives, blood and money spent trying to fix that country after an invasion itself the basis of questionable intelligence but of undoubted value to large corporate and oil interests....We should be counseling our US ally to temper their aggressive interventionism in favor of softer diplomacy as recent history has shown that the actions have largely been counterproductive to taxpayers in the west and the people in the countries involved.Maybe Malcolm Fraser whom just like a two bob watch tells the right time twice a day is correct in his analysis that Australia should be heading in a somewhat more independent direction from the US. The recent history and effect of US interventionism would suggest that this should be open for political debate.