Balkan Neighbors, EU Hopefuls Are Worlds Apart on Migrants

Story Highlights

Macedonians are least accepting of migrants in the world

Albanians among the most accepting

High percentages in each country would like to migrate

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Adding yet another potential wrinkle to the migration debate in the European Union, the bloc announced in July that it could start accession negotiations next year with Macedonia and Albania -- two Balkan neighbors whose views toward migrants could not be farther apart. Macedonia's score of 1.47 on Gallup's Migrant Acceptance Index is the lowest in the entire world, while Albania's score of 7.22 makes it one of the most-accepting countries in the world for migrants.

Migrant Acceptance Index Scores Across EU, Macedonia and Albania

Sweden

7.92

Cyprus

5.41

Ireland

7.74

Malta

4.95

Luxembourg

7.54

Slovenia

4.42

Netherlands

7.46

Greece

3.34

Spain

7.44

Poland

3.31

Albania*

7.22

Romania

2.93

Denmark

7.09

Lithuania

2.72

Germany

7.09

Bulgaria

2.42

Portugal

6.65

Croatia

2.39

United Kingdom

6.61

Estonia

2.37

Finland

6.58

Czech Republic

2.26

Italy

6.49

Latvia

2.04

France

6.46

Slovakia

1.83

Belgium

6.16

Hungary

1.69

Austria

6.06

Macedonia*

1.47

Maximum possible score on the index is 9.0. *Albania and Macedonia are candidate countries.

Gallup World Poll, 2016

If Albania and Macedonia make sufficient progress toward reform, the two countries will continue to take steps to join a bloc that has struggled to find accord on migration since the height of the migration crisis in 2015. This division is further reflected in Gallup's finding that the EU is the most divided region in the world on its Migrant Acceptance Index, which gauges people's acceptance of migrants based on increasing degrees of personal proximity. The higher the resulting index score, the more accepting the population is of migrants.

Scores in the EU with its current membership range from a high of 7.92 in Sweden to a low of 1.69 in Hungary. Macedonia's score is lower than the one for Hungary -- one of the few countries to pull out of the recent U.N. global migration agreement -- while Albania's score would rank it just after Spain.

Cultural norms and traditions factor into people's attitudes toward migrants and Albania's higher scores may reflect the hospitality that is ingrained in its culture. This is illustrated in an old Albanian saying, "Before the house belongs to the owner, it first belongs to God and the guest."

Albanians historically have offered "besa" -- taking care of those in need and being hospitable -- to Jews fleeing Nazi persecution during World War II, to Kosovar refugees during the Kosovo War, and to Syrian refugees in the present conflict. Macedonia, on the other hand, sealed its border with Greece during the recent migrant crisis that started in 2015.

Desireto Migrate Elevated in Both Countries

While Albania and Macedonia are on opposite sides of the spectrum when it comes to their acceptance of migrants in their own societies, both countries themselves have extensive diasporas, and more than six in 10 residents say they have relatives or friends in other countries that they depend on for help.

Relatively high percentages in each country would also personally like to migrate permanently to other countries -- which potentially would be much easier if they were to join the EU. Sixty-two percent of Albanians and 33% of Macedonians in 2017 said they would like to migrate permanently to another country if they could, which is far higher than the wishes in almost all existing EU member states. Germany is a top desired destination for potential migrants in each country.

Desire to Migrate Permanently Across EU, Macedonia and Albania

Albania*

62%

Spain

17%

Italy

36%

Germany

16%

Macedonia*

33%

Hungary

16%

Cyprus

30%

Poland

16%

Belgium

27%

Bulgaria

15%

United Kingdom

26%

Portugal

15%

Lithuania

25%

Croatia

14%

Slovenia

25%

Slovakia

14%

Romania

24%

Denmark

13%

France

21%

Luxembourg

13%

Greece

21%

Ireland

12%

Latvia

20%

Sweden

12%

Malta

18%

Austria

10%

Netherlands

18%

Czech Republic

10%

Estonia

17%

Finland

10%

*Albania and Macedonia are candidate countries.

Gallup World Poll, 2017

Implications

Before next year, both countries will need to demonstrate to the EU an ability to sustain reforms they've already made, and make additional progress on fighting organized crime and corruption, which majorities in each country acknowledge is a problem. However, those are not the only issues potentially complicating their eventual integration in 2025 -- if all goes according to plan: The bloc would be absorbing two countries with high unemployment -- and a high desire to migrate -- and with Macedonia's entry, the EU would gain a country as opposed to migrants as current member Hungary.

Anita Pugliese contributed to this analysis.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone and face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted throughout 2016 and 2017 in the respective countries. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error ranges from ±2.1 percentage points to ±5.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.