Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF

Florida International at Florida Atlantic
The Golden Panthers look to take advantage of a Florida Atlantic team that is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Florida International is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Golden Panthers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+2).

Oklahoma City at New Orleans
The Hornets look to build on their 12-1 ATS record in their last 13 home games. New Orleans is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+6)

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

BYU vs. Florida State
The Cougars look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 non-conference games. BYU is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cougars favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: BYU (-1 1/2)

Game 735-736: North Carolina at Long Beach State (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 71.163; Long Beach State 64.445
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 6 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 10 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+10 1/2); Over

Game 801-802: South Dakota State at Hofstra (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 64.265; Hofstra 50.218
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 14
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 12
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (-12)

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

The Jazz will look to make an immediate return to the winners circle tonight, and utilize their height advantage in the paint vs. the vertically challenged 76ers side.

Note that Utah did in fact outrebound the C's 48-33.

The Jazz average over 43 PPG in the paint, led by Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, who combine to score an average of 31.1 PPG.

"We proved that we can fight. That's the difference between the Celtics and us right now. They know how to seal the game," Jefferson said after the setback. "That's what we've got to get to. Playing these type of teams, it's going to help us get there. Now, we know what to do. So, we just need to go and try and take care of these next two games on the road."

Already 1-0 ATS in non-conference games this year, note that Utah is 28-21 ATS in the same position over the last two.

Philadelphia is 4-4, including just 1-3 in front of the home town crowd.

Note that Philadelphia is also just 1-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season.

With Andrew Bynum sidelined, Philadelphia is averaging just 33.5 PPG in the paint.

Bynum's replacements have been completely inept, as Kwame Brown and Lavoy Allen are averaging just 9.1 PPG between them.

Most recently the 76ers are coming off a 94-76 home loss to the Pistons on Wednesday, shooting under 30% from the floor, while being outrebounded 57-38 in the process.

I believe the Jazz break out of their road funk with a convincing victory, committing themselves to a firm game plan of working the ball down low and taking full advantage of the mismatches throughout this contest!

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Rob Vinciletti

Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trailblazers
Play: Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers fit a nice system here that plays on rested home favorites with a total of 180 or higher that scored 100 or more as a road dog of 4 or less, vs an opponent that scored 100 or more as a home favorite of -5 or more, provided both teams shot 455 or higher and had 25 or less assists in their last game. Houston has not done well with home loss revenge losing 19 of the last 28 times in this role. Portland played real well in winning by 10 in Houston earlier this month. Look for Portland to get the cash as a small home favorite here tonight.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Jim Feist

Suns vs Lakers
Pick: Over

Phoenix still runs, even without Steve Nash, and they don't play any defense (29th in points allowed. The over is 6-1 in the Suns last 7 overall and 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on one days rest. The Lakers are more uptempo since Mike Brown was fired, topping 100 in two of three games. The over is 35-16 in the Lakers last 51 vs. Western Conference and 17-5 over in their last 22 vs. the NBA Pacific. And when these teams meet the over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, as well as 8-3 over the total in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles. Play the Suns/Lakers over the total.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

JR O'Donnell

Pacific +5.5

These Tigers can hang with the Fresno St Bulldogs tonight on Friday late.... Play the #'s hard as we have capped these Tigers who were throttled last year @ 11-19 to a pickem tonight in Fresno.. Travis Fulton a stud inside. They have 11 returning lettermen & 5 starters all back behind a Rock Solid coach .. (Veteran Coach Thomason 25 years will have the ready tonight in Fresno) ... Bulldogs put up 39 last game vs the Cal Riverside ... Pacific by 1 to 3 points

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Joe Gavazzi

Florida Atlantic -1½

After an 8-5 SU, 20-11 season, the Fla Int hopes have been dashed with a record of 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, -53 AFP. Conversely, under first year HC Pelini, Fla Atl has become this year's version of W. Kentucky. Though only 3-7 SU, they are 8-2 ATS reeling off 8 consecutive covers. For the year, they are +55 AFP. As a result, this line has swung 14 full points to the Owls being the favorite. Nonetheless, will not stand in the way of the Owls momentum and notable improvement.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Jack Jones

Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks Friday. Dallas is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers due to its 5-4 start this season, while Indiana is undervalued due to its 3-6 start.

Dallas' five wins have come against the Lakers, Bobcats, Blazers, Raptors and Wizards. Those five teams have a combined 12-26 record on the season. The Mavericks are still without their two best players in Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion, and this simply isn't a very strong team until they return.

The Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 6.2 points/game. The Pacers are 2-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 3.3 points/game. They are limiting opponents to a mere 85.7 points/game at home this year.

Indiana is 51-31 ATS in home games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games since 1996. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games overall. Mavericks are 17-41-1 ATS in their last 59 vs. NBA Central division opponents. Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 meetings with the Pacers, and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Indiana. Bet the Pacers Friday.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ORLEANS +6½ -108 over Oklahoma City

The Thunder are 6-3 and are considered to be among the elite teams in the NBA. From our standpoint, this team has regressed badly and we can take full advantage of it here. The Thunder’s six wins have come against Portland, Toronto, Chicago, Detroit twice and Cleveland. Combined, that group is 13-28 with only the Bulls having a winning record. They’ve only played three teams above .500 and have one win to show for it. The absence of James Harden appears to have hurt Kevin Durant more than anyone, forcing him into a playmaking role that he doesn't seem completely comfortable with.

Meanwhile, the Hornets are playing well with three wins in six games and have played a much more difficult schedule than these guests. New Orleans has already beaten the same Chicago team that the Thunder beat and they also have a win over the Jazz. They lost by just four to Houston in its last game and lost by just four to the Spurs on opening night. The Hornets top overall pick Anthony Davis is a star in the makings, not only with his play but with his refuse to lose attitude and great defense (eight blocks in his last two games). This one has upset written all over it with the points offered giving us even more security.

MEMPHIS -6 -107 over New York

The Knicks remain the only unbeaten team in the league after last night’s satisfying win in San Antonio. As a 5-point dog in that game, New York was down 12 in the fourth quarter and rallied to win it. Imagine that. It’s telling that the Knicks are being offered more points here than last night when San Antonio is considered to be better than Memphis. Knicks are in big danger of a letdown here, the line says so.

The Grizzlies are a power that continues to fly under the radar. They beat the Thunder by 10 in its last game and the Heat by 18 prior to that. They’ve quietly won six in a row, they’re unbeaten at home and they might be the least flawed team in the Association. There is no danger of them suffering a letdown having to face the only unbeaten team in the league. It’s the hottest ticket around and the fans will be on their feet from the opening tip off. Knicks get their first taste of defeat here and it would not surprise us if it’s an ugly one.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

WUNDERDOG

Orlando at Detroit
Pick: Orlando +5

The Orlando Magic are pretty banged up right now, and have a couple questionable contributors for tonight's game. The Pistons are in the same boat as their best player, Rodney Stuckey dealing with the flu. It is tough to get behind a Detroit team that is 1-8 on the season, allowing 101.5 points per game in the process. That changed when Philadelphia shot 29% against them, which hardly looks like it was because of Detroit's defense. The Magic lost to the Knicks in their previous game, hardly a surprise, but what they did get was 21 points from rookies Moe Harkness, and Andrew Nicholson. It is also hard to get behind a team that is 83-156 in their last 239 games (winning one of every three games), and then ask them to win by 6 points or more on top of it. The Magic have responded to a 10+ point loss at home by going 6-0 ATS in their next game. They are also 14-5 in their last 19 vs. the NBA central. Play on Orlando.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

John Ryan

UNC-Wilmington at Ohio University
Prediction: UNC-Wilmington

The simulator shows a high probability that UNC-Wilmington will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. UNC-W may not be the a strong team, but they do have a rebounding edge in this game. The sim shows that they will have between 40 and 44 rebounds in this game. In past games, UNC-W is 16-6 ATS in road games when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game since 1997. Noteworthy is that Ohio guard Walter Offutt is listed as probable with a lower body injury. His playing time may be limited however, and this is a key to making this an easy cover for Wilmington. Ohio plays a three-guard set bench player Ricardo Johnson is not the player that Offut is on the court. Offutt played just 19 minutes shooting just 1-for 5 with two misses from beyond the arc for four points. He is a senior and team leader, who averaged 12.4 PPG in the 2011-12 season. Take UNC-Wilmington.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Steve Janus

Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Pacers are clearly not the same team without Danny Granger in the lineup, but they are simply showing too much value as a small home favorite to not put at least a little bit of action on them. While the Pacers are just 3-6 overall, they are a respectable 2-1 at home and will be going up against a Dallas team that has lost three straight on the road.

While the Pacers come in averaging just 87.8 ppg, they have been able to stay competitive because of a defense that is only allowing 91.1 ppg. They seem to really pick up the intensity at home, where they are only giving up 85.7 ppg. The offense should also be able to put together some easy baskets against a Dallas defense that is allowing 102.2 ppg on the road.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Bobby Conn

Dallas Mavericks vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers

Small number here to lay for a home team that typically has a strong advantage in Indiana. Both teams are without their best player, but the Pacers struggles have come as a result of playing a lot of games on the road and not being able to finish. Dallas looks like they have managed without Dirk, but they have had a soft schedule. The Mavs have struggled defensively and that should help the Pacers offense get going a little bit tonight. I'll lay the small number.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

The Pacers are...
Still without Granger
Only have 1 Win in their last 6 games
Last in the NBA with only scoring an average of 87.9 ppg
Haven't score more than 90 points in their last 3 games

The Mavs are...
4-0 when hitting the 100 point mark and will get it done tonight
O.J. Mayo is realizing he was an important off season pick-up
The Mavs may not have the "Star" power but they have some help off the bench, veterans and have the ability to win this game outright when they play good ball.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Charlie Sports

Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +2

The (3-4) Atlanta Hawks of the Eastern Conference Southeast division will take on the (2-6) Sacramento Kings of the NBA Western Conference Pacific division in 2012 NBA action. The The Hawks are 5-1 the last 6 against the spread vs. Sacramento. The over is also 5-1 the last 6 between the teams. The Kings are onlt 1-6-1 their last 8 ATS, but Sacramento gets the home cover +2.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Sean Higgs

Florida Intl vs. Florida Atlantic
Play: Over 50.5

Your FREE PLAY today will be going OVER the total in this Friday night Sun Belt battle. We have a 2-8 and a 2-7 team facing off! Both teams terrible, but I will lean on the over here. Florida Atlantic got blitzed 41-7 last year in this game, and I am sure they would like to get a little bit of revenge for that. Both defenses giving up 30+ a game. We will go OVER the 50.5

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Black Widow

Golden State Warriors +1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have simply been decimated by injuries. It's a big reason why they lost to the lowly Charlotte Bobcats at home last time out. Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio and Chase Budinger will be out for an extended period of time. Meanwhile, Nikola Pekovic, Brandon Roy and Jose Barea are all out for this game tonight against the Golden State Warriors with various injuries. I believe the Warriors are one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. They are off to a 4-4 start that includes impressive road wins over the Clippers and Suns. Stephen Curry is healthy, and this is a young team that is only getting better in head coach Mark Jackson's second year on the job. The road team has won three straight and six of the last nine meetings in this series between the Warriors and Timberwolves, so home-court advantage is irrelevant. The Warriors are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Golden State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Minnesota is 5-16 ATS in home games after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games since 1996. The Timberwolves are 3-15 ATS in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Take Golden State and the points.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Chuck O'Brien

Both of these Sunshine State rivals have had disappointing seasons, so it shouldn't come as any surprise to see them at each other's throats tonight, in a physical scrap at FAU Stadium.

Florida International comes into Boca Raton after snapping a seven-game losing streak with a 28-20 win over South Alabama. That should provide enough momentum for this game, against a team just as weak offensively as South Alabama.

FAU has the 105th-ranked offense an checks in with the 106th-ranked scoring offense that averages just 20.1 points per game. Florida International's offense is eighth in the Sun Belt, so stopping the Panthers shouldn't be too hard either.

Two of the last three meetings have stayed under.

Florida Interntional has stayed under in two straight, and comes in on addtional under runs of 6-1 in November, 11-2 after an ATS cover and 16-5 against losing teams. In the meantime, Florida Atlantic has stayed low in 12 of its last 15 home games, 9 of 13 after an ATS covers and 7-1 after winning on the field.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Craig Davis

Free play winner on Providence plus the points last night in college hoops.

Friday's free play is the Oklahoma Sooners.

Tonight's game will mark the sixth matchup (head to head) between OU and UT Arlington, but just the first away from Norman. The Sooners won each of the first five contests: 89-57 in 1968-69, 71-64 in 1976-77, 101-76 in 1986-87, 81-63 in 1997-98 and 89-60 in 2006-07. The Sooners' average margin of victory is 22.2 points in this series. You see why I'm starting to like them even more?

The Sooners are coming off an 85-51 season-opening home win over ULM on Sunday while the Mavs (who went 24-9 last season) are entering tonight's contest off a 62-60 home win over Cal State Bakersfield.

Yeah, maybe I'm falling victim to the big school vs. small school phenomenon, but I don't care. I've seen both teams play a little and I believe the Sooners will be a lot better than people think.

The only thing that scares me for OU tonight is their recent road record. 1-9 in true non-conference road games over the past three seasons. Yikes.

All 12 Sooners who played Sunday vs. ULM scored at least 1 point, and I think that's going to be a big bonus for our side tonight as the Sooners might have to go to the bench early.

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

Friday's freebie comes in the NBA, take the Houston Rockets as the small road underdog at Portland.

The Blazers are normally strong on the home floor, but this season Portland has dropped their last three both straight up and against the spread in Rip City.

I don't see them ending the skid tonight, as the Houston Rockets are most definitely improved with the addition of the bearded-wonder James Harden in uniform, and Houston does come to the pacific northwest with wins in two of their last three straight up.

The Rockets have had past success in Portland, as Houston sports a three game winning streak on the Rose Garden hardwood, and they have also gone 4-1 against the spread the last five series meetings in Oregon.

The visitor has won five of the last six series meetings outright, so stick with the trends and back the Rockets.

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