Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Coming up...

We're going to have new polls in Ohio and Virginia over the weekend. They went in the field tonight, and they're looking good. I think the tightening in Florida is the exception rather than the rule.

Other than North Carolina at the start of next week that'll be it for state polls until next Friday, when we'll release our first wave of final polls. We'll release a second, larger batch the day before the election.

For the most part we know where we're going to be polling, but we need to decide the final two states, and we're going to let you decide. There are four states in the running for the last two slots, a pair of western states and a pair of eastern states. We'll pick one from each of those categories to poll based on your votes.

First up are the western states. Your choices are:

-Washington. Obama is obviously going to win this state but it's worth polling for what may be the tightest Governor's race in the country, the rematch of the 2004 contest between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi.

-Montana. The down ballot stuff here isn't very interesting but some polling has shown it competitive in the Presidential race and Obama has been a constant presence in the state.

The poll is at the top of the page and voting will be open until noon Thursday. Later that day I'll put up the choices for the final eastern poll.

Actually you know what, I change my mind. Ron Paul is on the ballot for the Constitution Party and I'm pretty sure none of the polls have had him as an option. Recent polls give McCain a 4-5 pt lead but I wonder if Ron Paul's presence might shake it up.

I had orginally picked Montana, until I read this posting and realized that you were also surveying the WA guv race. I don't know if that's clear--but that's MUCH more compelling than the MT prez race.

If you do Montana, I am most curious about what the Ron Paul share really is. I hear anecdotally that his lawn signs are everywhere, but like with his swarm of supporters on the Internet during the primary season, that may or may not translate into a large number of real people.

Montana or a Dakota in the West; South Carolina or Georgia in the East. Also, you rule.

Also also, I'm not sure if you're already doing this or if you've answered this question elsewhere (if so, please forgive my asking again), but are you going to start asking an "Early Vote" question in NC and other applicable states?