Comments on: Per Capita Davis: Take a look in the mirrorhttp://www.davisenterprise.com/local-news/news-columns/per-capita-davis-take-a-look-in-the-mirror/
Yolo County, CaliforniaFri, 31 Jul 2015 19:56:47 -0700hourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0.1By: Paul Bradyhttp://www.davisenterprise.com/local-news/news-columns/per-capita-davis-take-a-look-in-the-mirror/comment-page-1/#comment-454319
Fri, 08 Nov 2013 18:20:34 +0000http://www.davisenterprise.com/?p=395965#comment-454319Climate Crisis Reprieve – based on the 5th Assessment Review of the IPCC which has just been published. As John Mott-Smith writes [11/7]; it is out-of-date – see below.

It is appropriate for Davis to have the Cool Davis Foundation and similar groups. We can take bike rides protesting pipelines which would bring oil from the Canadian “tar sands” and the Bakken shales in Canada, Montana and North Dakota to Gulf refineries, from which products are shipped around the world. [US is not allowed to export oil, but Canada can, of course.] We can also feel good as we read John Mott-Davis’s lengthy pieces such as that of 10/03: “the fierce urgency now” to combat “the greatest challenge of our time”, namely global warming/climate change.

Nevertheless, we need to be aware of recent studies by climate-science experts. While the global-warming alarmists continue to go about their business, their yarn keeps unraveling. Even those on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, have pulled back, and their recent 2013 report predicts a reduced rate of future, man-made warming. Altogether, these studies push any likely climate crisis, as they define it, to near the end of this century. We also need to be aware that recent -2013 – studies of fossil fuel reserves predicts a production peak in the next couple of decades and then a decline: Carbon emissions will be declining in less than 50 years further reducing the possibility of a global warming/climate crisis.

It should be noted that the IPCC consists of nearly 1000 climate crisis merchants who have gained fame and fortune via their alarmist pieces which appear regularly in the media. The IPCC is United Nations and government sponsored, and many believe it is predisposed to believe in a global warming/climate crisis and that a UN solution is needed for man-made climate change. The total cost, including that to economies, etc., of efforts to combat global warming is estimated to be at least $100 Billion a year.

As Mott-Smith notes, most will agree that this latest IPCC report is out of date. The fact that the last 15 years has seen, within uncertainties, no temperature rise is hardly mentioned. But huge amounts of CO2 [about 480 Billion tonnes] were emitted during this period, with nearly 50% staying in the atmosphere – the rest going into the oceans and into greening the earth. Why was there not the warming that the IPCC models predicted? The failure of the IPCC model predictions stunned IPCC panel members! Equally important it brought further attention to the inadequacy of the models, and to the fact that Nature plays as important a role as man in climate change.

It is important to note that the IPCC scientists always assume that the future fossil fuel production and the attendant green-house gas production, mainly CO2, will not be limited by supply or cost, but will be fully available indefinitely to meet the demands of the growing global economy. However, recent detailed studies predict that future fossil fuel production is indeed limited and it, and CO2 production, will very likely decline long before a crisis warming is reached.

Concerning fossil fuel production, please see The Energy Watch Group’s web site: [www.energywatchgroup.org] under Fossil Fuels – The Supply Outlook: Global oil, coal and natural gas production are predicted to peak before the end of the next decade and decline fairly rapidly thereafter. Yes, they examined the increased production from fracking with a detailed analyses of all fields. [As a former oil-field geophysicist I can vouch that secondary production from flooding, fracking, etc., is very technical, expensive and decays relatively quickly.]

A 2013 British Petroleum report [bp.com – reserves-to-production ratios, etc] estimates that at present rates, global oil and natural gas production will last about 50 years. Low grade coal production could extend beyond that. Oil and gas production has been keeping reserves up in this decade, but remains uncertain in future decades as the large, older Saudi fields, etc., continue to decline 6-7%/yr and the new secondary production [from fracking, etc.] is expected to peak in the next decade or two. Also, oil and gas use is predicted to increase several % per year, so the expected point of decline in reserves-to-production will begin in a few decades. In addition, at some point fossil fuels will not be competitive with geothermal, solar, wind, nuclear and other alternatives, and these involve much less carbon release.

Thus, it appears fairly certain that there will not be a climate crisis, and that we are probably wasting money, the estimated $100 Billion per year, and energy combating the wrong issue. We should be spending funds mitigating the effects of warming which can be more inexpensively and easier dealt with. Eg., we should be asking for and following Dutch advice in building protection for cities such as NYC and New Orleans against storm surges. Sea levels could rise about a foot in 50-70 years, about the same as during the past century.

Here, in California, the state is taxing carbon production , via carbon credit auctions and sales, for no good global reason: Most CO2 is produced outside California and outside the US! These state carbon taxes on fuel and energy, and eventually on all emissions from fossil fuel use, will increase each year and penalize all citizens and businesses and make the state poorer and less competitive!

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Fri, 08 Nov 2013 03:29:21 +0000http://www.davisenterprise.com/?p=395965#comment-454313Just Sayin’, you’ve hit the nail on the head.
]]>By: Just sayin'http://www.davisenterprise.com/local-news/news-columns/per-capita-davis-take-a-look-in-the-mirror/comment-page-1/#comment-454310
Thu, 07 Nov 2013 23:42:12 +0000http://www.davisenterprise.com/?p=395965#comment-454310Spring, Summer, Fall and Winter is climate change and science. Whipping up hysteria about a theoretical future event is politics. Oh, and the climate change you’re talking about will allow the world to vastly INCREASE food production
by turning currently frozen land into productive land.
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