-4% would be a more reasonable expectation. Why? If sales are down 4% and the idiotic measure you are using is 77% consumer spending, then it stands to reason that the overall number won't be too far from there.

Why is consumer spending included, anyway?

We should be concentrating on what we produce, not what people are willing to borrow to buy.

If GDP hits peak to through of -10% then its a nobrainer to say that the US is in a depression, but 5% annualized is less than 2% of actual GDP decline. roubini forecasts a -5% peak to through total decline