Quick link: Possum on the aggregate poll trend

If you’re still wondering what all the plethora of polls released in the last few days mean, you need to read Possum’s latest update on his Pollytrend:

What we’ve seen over the last 20 days is the ALP vote continuing to increase from the trough Rudd had it in before he was replaced. We also see the Greens getting a few points of growth and the Coalition slightly edging back. The big losers have been the broad “Others” with their vote nearly halving in the lead up to the election campaign and over its first few days.

On the two party preferred and its implications:

Over the last 20 days, the ALP two party preferred has increased by 1.5 points on the phone pollster trend and 1.8 points on the all pollster trend. Regardless of which measure you use, the trend is positive for the ALP by over a point – so the incumbent government, at this stage, is slowly pulling away from the opposition.

If we plug those phone poll trend estimate numbers into Antony’s spiffy election calculator, we end up with Labor on 83 seats, the Coalition on 64 seats and 3 independents. You might notice that the current estimate is exactly what the current Parliament is – but because of the electoral boundary redistribution, that actually makes the ALP in a position of being 5 or 6 seats behind their 2007 performance (since they notionally gained 5 or 6 seats in that redistribution).

So they ALP is currently ahead of the Coalition – but are behind their 2007 election result both in terms of their current two party preferred result and their net seat position. However, their vote is trending up and has been for around 50 days now, starting at the back end of the Rudd leadership and continuing through the Gillard leadership to today.

Suppose Labor wins the election but it could be reasonably concluded that Labor would have won under Rudd.

Are we going to get an endless campaign by reactionary Rudd revanchists that Gillard is illegitimate that Rudd is the rightful Prime Minister and there will be insurrection until he is restored to the throne?

For better or for worse Rudd is gone and he aint coming back. Some people need to locate a bridge and get over it.

What a contrast this piece is to the drinking of their own bathwater that the Curious Snail has indulged in since the elevation of Gillard to the Prime Minister position. It is now apparent that based on the polls so far Herbert is the only Queensland marginal in danger of being won by the Tories.

A .quick look at the betting markets show no good value seats among the Queensland marginals. What would be funny though is if Peter Dutton got rolled by the $1-85 chance, Fiona McNamara in the seat of Dickson.