ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE UPON
KYLE RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE OVERALL STORM ENVELOPE IS BECOMING ELONGATED EAST-WEST.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND 65 KNOTS
FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS FOR THIS
ADVISORY. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE 34 KNOT WIND AND 12
FOOT SEA RADII BASED ON RECENT AMSU DATA AND 0600 UTC SHIP REPORTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/05. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KYLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION THROUGH
36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
ENSEMBLES...NOGAPS...UKMET AND NOGAPS TURN KYLE TO THE NORTH
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP WHILE THE
AVN STANDS ALONE IN IN TURNING KYLE TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST
IN A CYCLONIC LOOP. GIVEN SUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE OUTPUT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK WITH KYLE CREEPING WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE THEIR TOLL
ON KYLE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTER AVILA/COBB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 27.0N 60.2W 75 KTS
12HR VT 27/1800Z 26.7N 60.7W 70 KTS
24HR VT 28/0600Z 26.5N 61.3W 65 KTS
36HR VT 28/1800Z 26.3N 61.8W 55 KTS
48HR VT 29/0600Z 26.1N 62.1W 55 KTS
72HR VT 30/0600Z 26.0N 62.5W 60 KTS
NNNN