The month-old Oracle v. Google trial hasn't had a lot of clarity. Dozens of motions have been filed over issues both great and small, with the only clear development so far being a split copyright verdict. But key events in the past 24 hours have shown what the possibilities are going forward.

First, Judge William Alsup has said he will make a ruling about whether or not programming APIs are copyrightable as early as next week. Next, Oracle has agreed to drop its longshot case for copyright damages it was talking about pursuing last week. Those developments, along with the patent trial verdict that a San Francisco jury should soon deliver, will soon make clear the road ahead.

Four outcomes possible

The most important question in the case now is whether Alsup finds APIs can be copyrighted at all. Alsup said yesterday he is preparing a ruling on that issue, but it won't be ready before next week. The judge delayed this key ruling until after the entire copyright phase of the trial took place, saying he wanted to hear additional evidence before he ruled. Now the copyright phase is over, with a mixed verdict that found that Google had infringed, but the jury couldn't agree about whether Google was protected by fair use or not.

If Alsup finds that APIs are copyrightable, then Oracle will get to have some kind of retrial over whether Google is guilty of violating its copyright. There are disagreements about exactly what parameters that retrial should take, but Oracle will ultimately get some kind of second chance.

The second question involves patent infringement. This jury is now a patent jury, considering only patent issues and damages.

That leaves four outcomes for this case's resolution. There's plenty of room for gray area—for example, Oracle could win on one patent, but lose on another—but the instances below would seem to be the basic outlines of what happens next.

Oracle wins the API copyright argument, and wins the patent case. In this case, Oracle could still win big, since it will get a retrial on its key copyright question. Meanwhile, it will get a jury that will immediately consider its case for patent damages. However, those damages might not be huge—Oracle's own expert recently suggested royalties for these two patents should be a bit over $4 million. There's also a court-appointed expert testifying in this case—likely to be influential with jurors—who could suggest an even lower number. Still, legal headaches for Google will abound here.

Oracle wins the API copyright argument, but loses the patent case. Oracle will get its retrial at some later date, and might have a big shot at damages, but will have no immediate vindication.

Oracle loses the API copyright argument, but wins the patent case. Oracle will be in the position of asking a jury for relatively small damages—but at least enough to save face. It could also ask for an injunction that would force Google to alter Android, but the bar for getting one is high.

Oracle loses the API copyright argument, and loses the patent case. This outcome would be a total loss for the software giant, which has been cutting checks to some of the nation's top tech lawyers for two years now while prosecuting a legal crusade against Android.

No matter what happens, each side is likely to appeal. Especially on the API copyright issue, which will affect programmers throughout the US, a final decision will almost surely come from a panel of appellate judges at the 9th Circuit who set the law going forward. A European court recently found that APIs can't be copyrighted, and the issue is teed up here for a clear decision stateside.