As it is with each approaching season, it is the will and custom of this watcher to offer a prayer to the living GOD in anticipation of the storms that will present over the coming months. So it is with great respect we ask...

Dear LORD GOD, Father of Heaven and Earth, Creator of all things, Esteemed Most High, please hear this prayer and if it be in your will act upon it accordingly. And as in years past, it is also our prayer that all the innocence in harms way be protected by Your Grace, may any suffering these storms bring this season also be eased, and any victims comforted. May those whose lives are lost find their way home to You… And, if any of these things/storms are being manipulated, beyond Your Will and Nature, may the perpetrators responsible suffer Your Wrath for their crimes......... By Your Heavenly Promise we ask these things, therefore Mighty One make them so, and thank You GOD... a man.

Last edited by starman1 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

starman1

Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth

Wed Jun 08, 2011 2:32 pm

And, the 2011 Hurricane Season begins...
This years first tropical storm has gotten up to speed and is running out in the Eastern Pacific waters south of Acapulco Mexico, and it has already qualified to receive it's name, meet "Adrian". Experts report the system looks promising for development and suggest it could possibly become the first hurricane of the year.

Tropical Storm Adrian formed on Tuesday evening, EDT in the eastern Pacific. Adrian is located about 355 miles south of Acapulco, has sustained winds of 45 mph and is slowly moving to the west-northwest at 3 mph. Latest satellite loop shows Adrian getting better organized with convection wrapping around a center of circulation. Upper-level shear is favorable for strengthening and water temperatures are warm, so Adrian should continue to strengthen and could reach hurricane strength on Wednesday evening or Wednesday night. Adrian will generally head to the northwest over the next day or so, then take a track more to the west-northwest later this week as high pressure aloft builds to the north of the system. Although high winds and torrential downpours from Adrian will most likely stay offshore, there can be rough surf and showers and thunderstorms that affect the southern coast of Mexico.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck

Out in the Atlantic region, there is a "Weak Tropical Low in the Northwestern Caribbean". This system presently appears to be facing unfavorable conditions for rapid organization or development, but it is being watched and monitored as it proceeds...

A weak area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean remains poorly organized on Tuesday night. The low pressure center is located south of the Grand Cayman Islands and it continues to be sheared by west-southwesterly upper-level winds of 30 knots. These winds continue to push flooding showers and thunderstorms away from the area of low pressure and across Cuba and Hispaniola.

An upper-level ridge of high pressure shifting eastward across the Tennessee Valley will move off the East Coast on Thursday. This will cause the low pressure center to be steered to the north or northwest toward Cuba over the next day or two. From there computer models diverge with the GFS taking the system north-northwest into the central Gulf over the weekend while the TVCN and European models have a faster and farther east track across Florida or even east of Florida. An upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will cause unfavorable shear across the path of this system through Friday, so we do not expect much in the way of strengthening over the next couple of days.

This system still has the potential to bring significant rainfall to South Florida on Friday, or at least help to enhance convection across the state by pumping northward deeper tropical moisture. This would be beneficial as parts of the state have been fairly dry over the past two months.

At this time, all interests across the Gulf and Caribbean need to monitor this system. In the meantime, heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides will be a threat to Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola over the next couple of days.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next several days.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck

Last edited by starman1 on Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

starman1

Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth

Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:01 pm

It is official, Hurricane "Adrian" is the seasons first named storm and now it is also the seasons first HURRICANE...
Presently, the system is classified as a CAT 1 on the SSS...

The exact target or expected track path is still questionable according to the experts models, but they do warn it could reach upward of a CAT 3 by days end.
We will keep an "eye" on this system as it progresses.

As of Thursday morning, Hurricane Adrian was located about 275 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 mph. Adrian was moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph.

Latest satellite loop shows Adrian continuing to strengthen as convection wraps around the newly formed, well defined eye. Upper-level shear is favorable for strengthening, and water temperatures are warm, so Hurricane Adrian will continue to rapidly gain strength and could become a Cat 2 by this afternoon, and even a Cat 3 by tonight. Adrian will generally head to the west-northwest today and through this weekend as high pressure aloft builds to the north of the system. Models are showing an upper-level trough setting up over Southern California and the Baja Peninsula toward the later part of this weekend, which in tandem with what some models are projecting Adrian doing, could lead to a potential impact on the Baja Peninsula. However, at this point, most models seem to have Adrian continuing to push mostly westward into colder waters and weakening.

Although high winds and torrential downpours from Adrian will stay offshore, there can be rough surf, and showers and thunderstorms may skirt the southern coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere across the Pacific Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours.

No significant development to report on as of yet in the Atlantic region...

Most of the Atlantic Basin is quiet as of this moment, but there is a broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system that is going to push over Cuba into the Bahamas today through tomorrow. As of this time, the low pressure system is not forecast to become anything tropical in nature based on the rather large amount of upper-level shear in place. Models currently are having this disturbance continue its northward movement through this weekend, but the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms will stay mainly off the Florida coast.

Although we are forecasting no major tropical development with this low pressure system, the showers and thunderstorms will still dump enough precipitation to cause potential flash flooding in Cuba and the Bahamas.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Donald Pillittere

starman1

Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth

Fri Jun 10, 2011 2:30 pm

This season is wasting little time getting up to speed in a hurry.
The seasons first hurricane, "Adrian", was classified a Major Hurricane last evening, and is presently still maintaining a CAT 4 status out in the East Pacific waters off the west coast of Mexico.

As of Thursday evening, Adrian continued to strengthen now with 140 mph, making it a category 4 hurricane. Adrian was located about 320 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph.

Latest satellite loop shows Adrian has well-defined eye surrounded by a central dense overcast. Upper-level shear is favorable for some additional strengthening, and water temperatures are warm, so major Hurricane Adrian is expected to strengthen further tonight into tomorrow. Adrian will generally head to the west-northwest this evening through this weekend as high pressure aloft builds to the north of the system. After tomorrow, Adrian will weaken as it encounters cooler ocean waters. Models are showing an upper-level trough setting up over Southern California and the Baja Peninsula toward the later part of this weekend, which in tandem with what some models are projecting Adrian doing, could lead to a potential impact on the Baja Peninsula. However, at this point, most models seem to have Adrian continuing to push mostly westward into colder waters and weakening.

Although high winds and torrential downpours from Adrian will stay offshore, there will be rough surf along southern coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere across the Pacific Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark

starman1

Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth

Sat Jun 11, 2011 2:34 pm

Hurricane "Adrian" is no longer a "Major Hurricane", expert reports state and satellite imagery confirm that over the last twenty four hours the system has significantly decreased in intensity and is now classed as a CAT 1 hurricane.
What a mover this one has been, in less than 3 days it got up to speed and very quickly revved up to a whopping CAT 4 Major Hurricane, then back down to a CAT 1 and quite possibly done before too long. What a show this one arranged.
Keeping an "eye" out, we watch...

As of Saturday morning, Adrian has weakened dramatically. Adrian's strength has dropped from a major hurricane to a Category 1 in less then 24 hours. Adrian was located about 495 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California and is moving west at 12 mph.

Latest satellite loop shows Adrian becoming disorganized with a broken eye wall. This could be due to Adrian entraining dry air and encountering cooler waters. Adrian remains to the south of a strong midlevel high and this will steer toward the west, and this track should continue for the next few days. Toward the end of the weekend, an upper-level trough has been forecast to set up across Southern California and the Baja Peninsula by most of the guidance models. This set up may try to steer Adrian farther to the north and east of the expected path and toward the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula early next week. Some of the more reliable hurricane models show this solution, but even if this were to happen, Adrian would be much weaker by that time, perhaps even a tropical depression or remnant low. Meanwhile, rough surf will be the only impact from Adrian along the southwest coast of Mexico over the next 12-24 hours

Elsewhere across the Pacific Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney

No significant development presently in the Atlantic regions.

starman1

Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth

Sat Jun 11, 2011 10:17 pm

Only hours after the last report, Hurricane "Adrian" became Tropical Storm "Adrian"...

As of Saturday afternoon, Adrian remained a tropical storm. The system was located about 530 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is moving west at 12 mph.

Latest satellite loop shows Adrian continuing to lose its deep thunderstorm activity. The cloud pattern is now just a swirl of low clouds with isolated patches of deeper thunderstorm activity. As the storm continues to encounter drier air and moves over cooler water, it will continue to quickly weaken and could become a remnant low within 24-36 hours. Adrian remains to the south of a strong mid-level high and this will steer toward the west, and this track should continue for the next few days until dissipation. Toward the end of the weekend, an upper-level trough has been forecast to set up across Southern California and the Baja Peninsula by most of the guidance models. This set up may try to steer the remnant moisture associated with Adrian farther to the north and east of the expected path and toward the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula early next week. Some of the more reliable hurricane models show this solution, but even if this were to happen, Adrian will have dissipated into a remnant low by that time. Meanwhile, rough surf will be the only impact from Adrian along the southwest coast of Mexico over the next 12-24 hours.

Elsewhere across the Pacific Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours.

The seasons 2nd named system is up and running out in the East Pacific waters skirting the west coast of Mexico.
It is already a Tropical Storm and has earned the name "Beatriz".
Expert reports state this system may intensify to hurricane strength as early as tonight sometime...
So we watch.........

Tropical Storm Beatriz is located about 160 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico in the Eastern Pacific. Warm water, low shear and deep moisture continue to prevail over the storm's environment, meaning Beatriz will likely continue to intensify through Tuesday, likely becoming a hurricane tonight. Most short-term guidance also shows the system taking a path toward the north-northwest very close to the Mexican coastline; however, it is still uncertain whether the center of this storm will make landfall. Regardless of whether the center makes landfall, heavy rain will fall along the southwestern coast of Mexico. Through Tuesday, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are likely, with locally 15 inches, which will result in flash flooding and mudslides. Hurricane-force winds are also expected along the coast late tonight and Tuesday in the Hurricane Warning area. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corriente. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from the coast of Mexico from Tecpan De Galeana to east of Zihuatanejo.

Elsewhere across the Eastern Pacific, no tropical development is expected over the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer

For the moment the Atlantic region remains quiet...

starman1

Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth

Tue Jun 21, 2011 10:59 pm

"Beatriz" did officially achieved Hurricane classification over night, but now according to expert reports the system has once again diminished to a Tropical Storm and is dwindling down further as it moves into less favorable atmospheric conditions.

Beatriz once a 90 mph hurricane weakened quickly during Tuesday morning and afternoon as it interacted with the rough terrain of southwest Mexico. The storm is moving west over cooler water and this weakening trend will cause the storm to weaken to a tropical depression sometime on Wednesday. The steering flow forcing Beatriz westward is being caused by a strengthening upper level high pressure area over north central Mexico. This will force the remaining circulation and any lingering moisture out over the Pacific and away from land.

Elsewhere across the Eastern Pacific, no tropical development is expected during the next couple of days.

Beatriz has dissipated and the remnant low pressure is located about 200 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Beatriz was once a 90-mph hurricane early Tuesday but weakened quickly as it interacted with the rough terrain of southwestern Mexico. The storm then moved westward over cooler water and dissipated Tuesday night.

Elsewhere across the Eastern Pacific, no tropical development is expected during the next couple of days.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer

For now, the Atlantic Region remains relatively quiet... shhhhhh

starman1

Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth

Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:36 pm

The Atlantic Region has awakened for the 2011 season with the arrival of it's first named storm, "Tropical Storm Arlene" has organized enough to qualify as the seasons first official named system in the Atlantic area waters. The storm presently hovers over the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf waters east of Mexico. Expert reports suggest this system may well reach Hurricane strength before impacting somewhere along the east coast of Mexico.
Watching!

Tropical Storm Arlene was located about 175 miles east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico, on Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Arlene is moving toward the west-northwest at 8 mph. Conditions are favorable for slow strengthening, and Arlene should have winds of 60 mph by the time it makes landfall near Tampico around midday on Thursday. There is some chance Arlene could become a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northeast coast of Mexico from Barra De Nautla northward to Bahia Algodones.

An upper-level ridge over the southern Plains states will steer Arlene to the west and into Mexico near Tampico around midday on Thursday. However, the plume of tropical moisture will reach as far north as parts of southern Texas, which appears to be in line for some desperately needed rainfall from this feature. In the meantime, drenching showers and thunderstorms will persist today across southern and eastern Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Heavy rain will continue to fall over eastern Mexico into Thursday causing life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

A weak tropical wave can be found along 72 west near the Dominican Republic. Over the last 24 hours, most of the showers and thunderstorms with this wave have dissipated. Upper-level winds in this area are unfavorable for further development and are expected to remain unfavorable along this feature's expected path. While thunderstorms may flare again as it tracks west, it is highly unlikely that we see any development from this wave. The moisture from this wave may also eventually target southern Texas.

A third tropical wave over the open Atlantic along 48 west is steadily marching west. Little shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring with this wave as conditions here are not favorable due to widespread dry and sinking air. It will reach the Lesser Antilles by Thursday and cause an increase in showers and thunderstorm activity, but upper-level winds likely will remain unfavorable for development through this week in the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Arlene was located about 55 miles south-southeast of Tampico, Mexico, Thursday morning, or near Cabo Rojo. Arlene has sustained winds of 65 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Arlene is moving toward the west at 8 mph. Arlene will continue to move over land and will begin to weaken later this morning.

A hurricane warning is in effect along the east coast of Mexico from Barra De Nautla northward to La Cruz.

A tropical storm warning is in effect along the east coast of Mexico from La Cruz northward to La Pesca and from Palma Sola southward to Vera Cruz.

An upper-level high pressure area centered over northwestern Texas will steer Arlene to the west and farther into Mexico this morning. Deep tropical moisture from Arlene will continue to reach as far north as parts of southern Texas. Drenching showers and thunderstorms will continue across southern and eastern Mexico and Guatemala. Heavy rain will continue to fall over eastern Mexico Friday causing life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals near and north of track of the storm will average 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts over 12 inches in some of the mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, a weak tropical wave is located along 75 west near Hispaniola. Upper-level winds in this area are unfavorable for further development and are expected to remain unfavorable along this feature's expected path. While thunderstorms may flare up from time to time as it tracks west, it is highly unlikely that we see any development from this wave.

Another tropical wave along 54 west is steadily marching west. Shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring with this wave although conditions here are not favorable due to widespread dry and sinking air to the north of the wave. It will reach the Lesser Antilles Thursday night and Friday and cause an increase in showers and thunderstorms, but upper-level winds likely will remain unfavorable for development through this week in the Caribbean. Long-range models show the position of this wave between the eastern Gulf and the Bahamas later next week.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologists Matthew Rinde and Rob Miller

starman1

Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth

Fri Jul 01, 2011 2:40 pm

"Arlene" has dissipated over Mexico's terrain and no further official advisories are being issued for this storm... However, remnants of the system are producing potential life threatening flooding rains over some areas of the region.
Although, the system appears to be reassembling on the west side of Mexico out in the Eastern Pacific in the satellite image below; expert reports suggest that the system faces unfavorable conditions for redevelopment out there.

Arlene has now weakened into a remnant tropical rainstorm this evening as the center of circulation has gotten ripped apart by its interaction with the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains of Mexico. What is left of the center of circulation of Arlene was located about 110 miles west of Tuxpan, Mexico, as of late Thursday evening. Arlene made landfall near Cabo Rojo earlier Thursday morning, packing sustained winds of up to 65 mph. The Rainstorm now has sustained winds of around 30 mph with higher gusts primarily confined to the most intense rain bands. The system is moving towards the west-southwest at 8 mph. No more official advisories will be issued on what is now the remnants of Arlene.

Now that Arlene has weakened into a Tropical Rainstorm, damaging winds are no longer expected. Instead, drenching showers and thunderstorms are the main focus and will continue across southern and eastern Mexico and Guatemala through Friday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides will be ongoing through Friday as the mountainous terrain of Mexico helps to squeeze out any available moisture. Rainfall totals near and north of track of the storm will average 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts over 12 inches in some of the mountainous areas.

Elsewhere, a weak tropical wave is located along 77 feature's expected path.

Another tropical wave along 56 west is moving west at about 5 degrees longitude per day. The wave will reach the Lesser Antilles tonight and Friday and cause an increase in showers and thunderstorms, but upper-level winds will remain unfavorable for development as it move into the eastern Caribbean this weekend. Long-range computer models suggest clouds, showers and thunderstorms associated with this tropical wave will move into the northern Caribbean and Cuba by Monday of next week and will bring a surge of deep tropical moisture over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida and much of the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This should lead to an increase in rain and thunderstorms over this area during this time.

The East Pacific Basin will continue to remain free of any tropical systems through at least the next 24 hours. The remnants of what was once Tropical Storm Arlene will continue to track through south-central Mexico on Friday, then reemerge off of the west coast of Mexico by Friday night. The center of circulation with Arlene will get ripped apart enough over Mexico so that when the remnants of the storm emerge into the East Pacific, any re-intensification will be minimal. Scattered clusters of thunderstorms can be found along the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which extends from 9 north, near 130 west, and east-northeastward from there toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec. None of these areas show any sign of a developing circulation, and tropical development is not expected through the next few days.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Erik Pindrock

starman1

Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth

Fri Jul 08, 2011 3:22 pm

Actions out in the East Pacific waters again, have produced the seasons 3rd named system "Tropical Storm Calvin". Presently, according to expert reports the storm is expected to strengthen but it is being forecast to move away from land where it is expected to dissipate in less than favorable conditions out in the East Pacific...

Tropical Storm Calvin in the eastern Pacific has strengthened some overnight and as of early on Friday morning, sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph. The storm was located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Given diminishing shear and very warm water through Friday, this system will likely continue to strengthen some. The steering flow over this system is supported by a very large upper-level high pressure area centered over the Southwest and south-central United States. The east to west steering flow should force the system to move west to west-northwest over the next few days. This track should keep the storm moving farther away from southwestern Mexico, although some rain from the outer periphery of the system will continue along the coast on Friday.

Heading into this weekend, Calvin will begin to encounter cooler ocean waters as it continues on a general west-northwest motion. The cooler waters will aid in the weakening of Calvin on Saturday and Sunday.

We see no other organized features across the East Pacific Basin at this time, and we are not expecting any further development across the Basin through at least Saturday.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer

starman1

Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth

Sat Jul 09, 2011 2:14 pm

"Calvin" is now in decline after achieving Hurricane status briefly over the past 24 hours, clocking in presently as a CAT 1, however; it is also already beginning to decrease in intensity and in short order may well be presenting relatively a non event as expert reports project the system will dissipate as it is pushed out to sea.

Hurricane Calvin has begun to weaken. As of Saturday morning, Calvin was located approximately 415 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum-sustained winds were near 75 mph, with higher gusts. Calvin was moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph.

Calvin is beginning to move over some cooler water, allowing the storm to begin to weaken. Calvin is well removed from southwestern Mexico and the future track of Calvin will take the system west to west-northwest, farther away from land. The hurricane is being steered by the large upper-level high pressure area centered over the Texas Panhandle. This high is so large, its influence extends deep into the tropics.

As Calvin continues to weaken during the day on Saturday, the system should weaken to a tropical storm later this morning or afternoon, and should become a depression by late on Sunday. After that, Calvin will become a non-tropical remnant low pressure area that will fall apart early next week.

The rest of the East Pacific Basin does not feature any current or future tropical development. We don't see support for development across this basin through the weekend and into early next week.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller

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