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Friday, 28 June 2013

The British Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The British Grand Prix

Yesterday
I listed the drivers who've been the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so
far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.
Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a
set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening
with a set of post-qualifying tips.

Following the pattern from
recent Grand Prix, I'm going to split my tips into a selection of
shorter priced bets and a selection of higher priced more risky bets.

Last
time out at Canada I gambled on a wet race and as a result my tips performed poorly, so treat the following predictions with caution!

Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.8 (SkyBet)
At
odds of 1.8 Lewis looks to be priced too short to attract much
interest, but he's on a strong run of qualifying form at the moment
with four front row starts from the last five Grand Prix, so despite the
short odds I'm still going to go for a punt on Lewis Hamilton to make it
another front row qualifying position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:20 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.53 (SkyBet)
Although
the average qualifying winning margin in 2013 is 0.33 seconds, recent
races have seen much closely contested qualifying sessions with 0.09 and
0.1 seconds separating the front row of the grid at Monaco and Canada.
Given the current closely matched one lap competitiveness of Mercedes
and Red Bull, there looks to be a reasonable chance of this trend
continuing.

Highest Scoring Team:20 points on Red Bull at 1.9 (188Bet)
Lotus
have fallen back slightly in recent races and although they have an
upgrade package this weekend it can sometimes take teams a couple of races to
fully understand how to get the best out of new upgrades. Ferrari have a
fast car but Massa hasn't been quite up to his early season form at the
last couple of Grand Prix, and Mercedes are perhaps still a fraction of a second short when it comes to race pace, so I would have to agree with the
bookies in pricing Red Bull as the favourites to be the highest scoring
team at the British Grand Prix.

Top Ten Finish:20 points on Jean-Eric Vergne at 2.0 (Bet Victor, Coral, William Hill)
Arguably
the best bet in this market has been Paul di Resta, but at recent Grand
Prix weekends Paul has suffered poor qualifying sessions (which have led to
his odds increasing after qualifying), before then having a strong race. As he's currently priced as short as 1.33, even if Paul repeats his strong Q2 performance in qualifying you wouldn't expect his odds to come down much and therefore the time to
bet on Di Resta may be after qualifying. Looking elsewhere, Jean-Eric Vergne finished an excellent 6th at Canada and was also in the points at Monaco, so on current form he seems worth considering at odds of 2.0.

Total Classified Finishers:20 points on Over 18.5 Finishers at 1.85 (BetFred)
Other
than Monaco, recent Grand Prix have seen relatively few retirements
with Bahrain, Spain and Canada all producing 19 or more classified
finishers.

Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Fastest Qualifier:20 points on Nico Rosberg at 3.75 (SkyBet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
At Canada, Sebastian Vettel brought an end to Nico Rosberg's run of three
consecutive pole positions, but Rosberg has still been an excellent bet
this year in the Fastest Qualifier market.

Race Winner:10 points eachway* (20 points in total) on Mark Webber at 7.5 (Bet Victor)
Despite being outshone by his team-mate this season, Mark has an impressive record at the British Grand Prix with two victories in the last three years, so if you're looking for a longer priced bet then he's one driver worth considering.

* Bet Victor pay 1/4 the odds on the first 3 places for an eachway bet.

Podium Finish:30 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.88 (Stan James, Paddy Power, Bet Victor, WIlliam Hill)
Lewis has had three podum finishes already this season, and Mercedes look to have made improvements at the last two Grand Prix, so odds of 2.88 are enough to tempt me into a punt on Lewis to claim his fourth podium of the season at his home Grand Prix.