June 17 (Bloomberg) -- North America’s dominance of global
exports of refined fuels will expand to unprecedented levels by
2019 as the shale revolution makes U.S. refineries more
competitive, the International Energy Agency said.

The continent will become a “titan of unprecedented
proportions” and its oil refineries will export about 3.5
million barrels a day by the end of the decade, the Paris-based
adviser to 29 oil-consuming nations said in a report today.
North America’s imports of crude will be 2.6 million.

“Less than ten years ago, the United States was the
world’s largest importer of refined products,” the IEA said in
its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, which forecasts energy-market
trends. “Today it has become the world’s largest liquids
producer, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as its
largest product exporter.”

The shale supply surge means that U.S. oil refineries
benefit from cheaper crude than their counterparts elsewhere in
the world. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. grade, has been
cheaper than the global benchmark Brent for almost all of the
past four years. The output expansion contrasts with the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose producers
may struggle to raise production amid political turmoil,
security concerns and aging fields, the IEA said.

Brent crude prices remained “stubbornly high,” averaging
more than $100 a barrel for the last three years as oil use grew
in emerging economies and supply was disrupted in producing
nations, the IEA said. The agency coordinated an emergency
stockpile release in 2011 after an armed uprising in Libya
choked global supplies.

Non-U.S. Shale

U.S. total liquids output will surge to 13.1 million
barrels a day in 2019, from 10.3 million last year, an average
gain of about 470,000 barrels a day per year, the agency said.

Producers outside the U.S. will also expand tight oil
production to 650,000 barrels a day by 2019, the IEA forecast.
Of that, 390,000 barrels a day will come from Canada, 100,000
from Russia and 90,000 from Argentina.

OPEC crude capacity is projected to grow 2.08 million
barrels a day from 2013 to 2019 to reach 37.06 million at the
end of the period, from 34.98 million last year, the IEA said.
Iraq will contribute about 60 percent of the increase.

“While OPEC remains a vital supplier to the market, it
faces significant headwinds in expanding capacity,” from
political turbulence, military conflicts and lack of investment
to maintain production from aging fields, Maria van der Hoeven,
the IEA’s executive director, said in a statement.

Peak Demand

Global oil demand will rise to an average 99.06 million
barrels a day by 2019, probably exceeding 100 million by the end
of that year, the agency forecast. That reflects growth of 1.3
percent a year from 2013, mostly from emerging markets including
China and India.