So, How's That Egyptian Revolution Coming Along?

Egypt has just concluded voting for its new parliament — the first round, anyway — with surprisingly large turnouts and little-to-no serious violence. And that should make us all pretty happy, right? Alas, there's a lot of angst out there in the mainstream media and the blogosphere on all the issues that get lumped together in the big, mournful vibe of who killed the revolution? As usual, America's incredible impatience with progress, along with our unrealistic expectations about "new faces" dominating political outcomes, are fueling this growing sense of pessimism. But, in truth, the revolution is going along just fine.

Herewith, some whining you'll be hearing in the coming days — and the truth behind it....

The Muslim Brotherhood is just a bunch of politicians!

This highly organized and decades-in-the-waiting Islamist political movement was virtually alone among the revolutionary ranks in pushing for the first elections to unfold on schedule. Now, unsurprisingly, it looks like the MB will own the biggest single bloc in the new parliament, having reportedly captured some 40 percent of the vote.

At first glance, the group's fine showing is cast in headlines across the West as THE ISLAMISTS WIN IN EGYPT! But seriously, would it have been better for the most organized and experienced guys in the room to have done badly, resulting in no political center of gravity? Don't we want this new parliament to seem credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people? Or did we really expect that a small minority of highly educated and suitably Westernized activists would be able to summon electoral legitimacy in a country that's still overwhelmingly poor? And wouldn't that fanciful outcome just make it more likely that the military would end up ruling the resulting mess?

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As it is, the Brotherhood is now being forced into accepting the responsibilities of genuine rule, which will involve all manner of compromises and deal-making — you know, politician stuff. And, yes, in a society so long repressed by a corrupt elite, this will likely involve slimy outcomes for quite some time. But Egypt is getting its first legitimate parliament in over half a century, and that alone will shift the dialogue from the streets to the government itself. And that is decidedly a very good thing.

The Egyptian military will be autonomous forever!

It's a bit of a chicken-or-egg thing, this one: The West wants the military to remain strong so we don't end up with another Iran (i.e., the Brotherhood-goes-crazy scenario), but it also wants the military to cede enough power so we don't end up with another general settling into a presidency-for-life. So if a parliament made strong by the MB gets us closer to Option No. 2, we still want the military to be able to carve out a constitutional role akin to what Turkey's military long had — namely, the ultimate guarantor that the government doesn't go Islamo-whatever-ism. America's best "in" here, it should be noted, is the Egyptian military — a decades-in-the-making relationship that shouldn't be casually sacrificed.

Despite all the legitimate fears about the Egyptian military not ceding authority to a new president next summer, the generals seem intent on securing their institution's guardian role in the new constitution, which they want a hand in writing. Yes, that guardian role comes with a price: the near-term preservation of the military's vast — and exceedingly corrupt — economic empire. But since that Rome can't be un-built in a day, both Egypt and the world are better off meeting their demand for now. After the new government is up and running — building up its own frustrating track record, no doubt — the combined weight of popular and government demand for serious military reform will ultimately hold sway. But that process will be measured in years, not by weeks of street protest.

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All of this is happening too slowly!

No it isn't. History tells us that when revolutions sweep into power, they often go crazy with it. As it is, the drawn-out parliamentary elections will slowly but surely build up a significant civilian power base that stands in opposition to continued military rule while being realistic enough to bargain with the military about what comes next. Yes, much will depend on how that presidential election process unfolds, but the military hovering over the proceedings will — again — not be such a bad thing, because the generals want a player with whom they can deal and who won't be a creature of the Brotherhood. Will the U.S. end up loving that compromised candidate? Probably not, but he will reflect a kind of rough balance of power in the system between the Islamists and the military. And that'll be enough for now.

Soon enough, all three of these power bases (parliament, president, military) will be subjected to all manner of unrealistic (if legitimate) popular demands for Egypt's rapid economic improvement. And ultimately, that's what we in the West want this revolution to morph into: a key pillar of the Arab world successfully (enough) embracing globalization's weave of political challenges and economic empowerment. A post-Mubarak Egypt "lost" to that vast endeavor won't be the problem we imagine it to be.

The Arab Spring is faltering again!

Complete and utter nonsense. Tunisia's recent vote was heartening in a similar fashion, and, hey, that rat-bastard Gaddafi is dead.

Meanwhile, look around the region: Syria's nasty Bashar Assad is looking ever more wobbly, with the Arab League sanctioning his regime, Turkey calling for his ouster, and even Beijing (!) chiming in about the need to move on. The Gulf Cooperation Council monarchies, while baring their teeth, are likewise moving fitfully toward reforms that aim to quell their own people's demand for progressive change. More generally, Turkey's influence is rising throughout the region while Iran's seems decidedly curtailed.

Look: All of this is messy. We rarely get change the way we want it. But this rollercoaster is moving, so shut up, buckle yourself in, and wave your arms above your head, because this is gonna be one helluva long ride ahead.

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