Out With The Old Boss ... Now What? Libya's Uncertain Future

Roger Daltrey could have been singing about 2011. Authoritarian regimes throughout the developing world were overthrown (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and soon Yemen), seriously threatened (Syria), or experienced civil unrest (the rest of the Middle East and North Africa) throughout the past year. Even the Stalinist outpost on the Korean Peninsula lost its longtime dictator just days ago.

There are many stories from this soon-to-be-over year to review but I think Libya deserves important attention in the U.S. because its situation echoes the war recently concluded 1500 miles to its east.

Libya’s history and situation mirrors that of Iraq and its position in April 2003 in many ways. Both nations were formerly ruled by the Turks until the early 20th century. Both nations were carved out of the Ottoman carcass by Western powers and subsequently administered by European governments (Iraq by Great Britain and Libya by Italy). At independence, the colonial powers installed traditional chieftain as monarchs of new, multi-sectarian nations (Iraq’s King Faisal in 1932 and Libya’s King Idris in 1951).

Both nations’ nascent monarchies succumbed to coups by renegade military officers. General Qassim overthrew King Faisal II in 1958 before the Ba’ath Party seized power in 1963. Major Muammar Gaddafi (he promoted himself to Colonel after he gained power) and his junta took power in 1969. Also, the Ba’athists and Gaddafi were fervent Arab nationalists who imposed violent dictatorships.

Most pertinent, both nations have experienced violent transitions away from these dictatorships in recent years. Even the grisly video of Muammar Gaddafi’s demise circulating the Internet echoed the clandestine cell phone video that captured Saddam Hussein’s final moments in December 2006. To be fair, Hussein’s execution resulted from a court conviction; Gaddafi’s occurred at the hands of an angry rebel mob. Still, considering the turmoil that engulfed Iraq after the overthrow of Hussein, why should we expect anything less tragic to occur in Libya?

Now that Libya’s bogeyman is dead, what will unite the country? Gaddafi was a madman who exploited the nation’s oil wealth to finance state-sponsored terrorism and turn Libya into a pariah state for decades. His misguided and bizarre attempts to impose direct democracy (under his personal guidance, of course) were a sham and further stunted Libya’s development. His eccentric behavior and ravings made him a joke in the West long after his support for terrorists waned.

What he did excel at was cobbling together support from and deftly dispensing patronage to Libya’s disparate tribes. The son of Bedouin nomads was a master at dispensing the appropriate patronage to keep himself in power for 42 years. The shared enmity toward Gaddafi and jubilation at his demise will fade eventually. Whether the National Transitional Council and its more permanent successor can hold this heterogeneous nation together remains to be seen.

One of the keystones of representative democracies is the peaceful transition of power between rival factions and political parties. In the United States, John Adams’ willingness to cede power to his rival Thomas Jefferson in 1801 is taught in schools as a key event in the development of the young republic. At the other extreme, the violence associated with the end of one dictatorship usually precedes another equally (if not worse) regime. Accordingly, I have grave concerns for Libya’s prospects for peace and stability.

What especially concerns me about the Libyan Civil War was its regional flavor (instead of a North vs. South variety like our own, Libya’s conflict was largely an East vs. West affair. The nation was cobbled from three distinct regions, Tripolitania (western Libya), Cyrenaica (eastern Libya) and Fezzan (which accounts for much of the southern desert).

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