Thursday, December 02, 2010

It's been a few months since the housing-analysis price tracker has been updated. I've uploaded the data to an online spreadsheet here for your viewing pleasure. I'll attempt to keep them up to date on a semi-regular basis. Housing markets move slower than frozen molasses. November sales were average historically and Months of Inventory (MOI) is hovering around the flat-line point. HOH = Half-over-Half.

The graph showing the correlation between price changes and months of inventory:

The formatting of the graphs isn't as nice as the ones before however the data are online now for everyone to see.

The deviation in the model of late is interesting but still within acceptable limits (a couple of sigma).

One thing to note is that these data are only showing a correlation to price changes and inventory, simply validating a relationship between prices and supply and demand. Low inventory and high sales will lead to prices being bid up, high inventory and low sales will lead to prices being bid down. Half-over-half price changes happen to be the most highly correlated to MOI. A combination of several delays will likely lead (actually, must lead, for those who think about it) to an even better model but meh.

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"About the time everybody's walking around complacently, congratulating each other—"We've sure got it made! Now we can take it easy!"—suddenly everything will fall apart. It's going to come as suddenly and inescapably as birth pangs to a pregnant woman."