Fat Chance

Just a quick observation:

Yesterday, the Obama administration proudly announced 476,000 people had filed their Obamacare applications. The numbers were roughly equal between state-run exchanges and the Federal monstrosity, Healthcare.gov.

Mind you, this isn’t the number of people who have enrolled in Obamacare. Nor are we given a breakdown on how many are the young, healthy types that everyone from insurance industry insiders to HHS administrators stress are needed to keep this particular ponzi scheme from collapsing.

Instead, this is a basic math lesson. The administration keeps telling us they need 7 million enrollees, of which 3 million need to be those young, healthy people, by March 2014 for Obamacare to even have a hope of working. I’m going to give the system the ultimate benfit of doubt and say all of those 476,000 applicants successfully enroll by month’s end.

But by the administration’s own math, they need about 1.2 million enrollees per month to make their albatross fly. Right now, they’re on pace (if all those applicants enroll) for about 800,000 per month. That’s about 4.8 million total by March, or roughly 70% of the goal.

Of course, that is a pie-in-the-sky estimate. While we don’t have hard numbers, anecdotal evidence points to about 10% of applicants actually enrolling in Obamacare. So will HHS actually get to 7 million enrollees?