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TC's 2013 Mock Offseason

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If you haven't been around long, then you probably don't know... I try to do one of these "offseason plans" at the end of each season. I usually do a mock free agency along with a mock draft based on the assumption that I get the guys I want in free agency.

A little about my philosophy: In free agency, I want younger talent. I'm looking for guys who are coming off their rookie contract or looking for their 3rd contract at the most... anyone older than 28 has to be a special talent with proven longevity, a good locker room presence, and willing to be a mentor.

In the draft, I use the first 2-4 rounds as an extension of free agency. Any holes I haven't plugged in free agency, I try to address in the first 3 rounds of the draft. After the 3rd round, I'm usually looking for the best player on the board... someone with raw ability who can be groomed to be a starter in the future.

So, let's get started.

The Chiefs have hired offense-minded Andy Reid as their new head coach. John Dorsey is their new General Manager and they've tagged Bob Sutton as their next DC. What we know from this group is that Reid likes an offense built around the pass and enjoys having mobile QBs. We know the Chiefs have a desperate need at the QB position and the #1 pick in the draft.

The scary hire was Bob Sutton. The Chiefs have spent a TON of resources building on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they've hired an offensive HC and a DC who didn't do too well as the DC for the Jets under Mangini. His schemes are bland, no blitzes, poorly designed, and never ranked higher than 16th overall. The Chiefs defense is a unit without a direction and being that Sutton has experience in the Tampa 2 4-3, the 2 gap 3-4, and now the 1 gap 3-4, he seems to be a Defensive Coordinator without a direction as well. This all leads me to believe there won't be too much attention given to the defensive side of the ball.

I COULD be wrong however because Andy Reid has a history of taking CBs and pass-rushing DEs in free agency and the draft. This could be a good thing considering Tyson Jackson is scheduled to make $14m in 2013 and is a prime target to be cut. The Chiefs also have a need at CB depth as well as at Safety. The Chiefs will also need at least one ILB and may also need to bring in another OLB depending on which defensive scheme they settle on. Glenn Dorsey is also scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent.

On the flip side, outside of the QB position, the Chiefs will also be looking at WRs with a decision needing to be made on Dwayne Bowe who's scheduled to be an UFA, evaluations needed on Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, and the rest of the corp in order to effectively address the situation. There's also a decision that needs to be made in regards to Branden Albert who is scheduled to be an UFA as well. The offensive line has substantial depth, but letting Albert walk may require replacing him with a free agent or with the #1 overall pick. The loss of Ryan Lilja shouldn't do much to hurt the O-line, but the next man up needs to be backed up. The offensive line has always been a priority for Andy Reid and this year should be no different.

So, let's dive into the free agent pool. Top priority: QB
Not too many options here. With the Chiefs perhaps bringing in Sporano as the O-line coach, one has to wonder if Matt Moore gets a chance to come in and compete. Assuming Flacco doesn't hit the free agent market after taking his team to the AFC Championship (so far), the FA talent pool is MUCH shallower than the extremely shallow QB draft class.

Offensive Line: The Sporano connection rears its head again. The Chiefs have concerns about Branden Albert's back and what they can expect from him on a long-term deal. Ryan Clady will be the biggest name scheduled to be an UFA, but there's no way Manning allows one of the best pass protectors in the game to walk. The next big name on the list of UFAs is none other than former top pick by the Dolphins, Jake Long. Long also has injury concerns but may be enticed to come play in KC. Andy Levitre is the top OG scheduled to hit the free agent market. Contract talks have gone nowhere in the past between he and the Bills and may get the chance to hit the open market.

WRs: Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Wallace headline the WR crop this season. With the new offense being pass-heavy, I just don't see Reid allowing Bowe to walk. Bowe will be extended and Dorsey will reel in Greg Jennings. With Baldwin and Breaston filling out #3 and #4, the Chiefs will boast one of the best WR corps in the league and will provide the new QB plenty of weapons with which to destroy his opponent.

TEs: Jared Cook is one of, if not THE most athletic TEs in the league. He has almost ZERO interest in returning to Tennessee and with the new offense centered around the pass in KC, Cook could see this team as a very big opportunity for him to finally break out.

DL: The Chiefs DL will take a hit this year. Jackson will probably not be here. There's a good chance Dorsey won't have much interest in returning. The defensive side of the ball is going to be the hardest for us to fill out considering that I don't think the Chiefs staff has any idea what defense they want to run yet. I'm going to go out on a limb (where I'm sure I'll be all by myself) and say the Chiefs are going to run a 1-gap 3-4. I realize this is a defense Reid has never run. However, I think this is the defense that the Chiefs are currently best-suited for with Sutton seeing the success Ryan had with it in NY. If the Chiefs run this defense, they have Hali and Houston at DE and Poe inside with DJ at LB. That means they need 3 LBs to fill out the defense. So, there isn't too much need along the DL except for random depth which could be filled by the guys currently on the roster, with late picks in the draft, or free agents after the draft. This defense is the same ran in New York with the Giants AND Jets. Osi Umenyiora is a top pass rushing DE that may hit the FA market. He is 6'3 255 and runs a 4.7 40. Hali is 6'3 270 with a 4.7 40 and Houston is 6'3 258 with a 4.6 40. These guys can handle the position.

LBs: Anthony Spencer, Phillip Wheeler, Shaun Phillips, and Manny Lawson are the top names on the LB FA market. The Cowboys franchised Spencer last season and Phillips is 31. If they can get one of these guys, I think they'll be in good shape.

CBs: Chris Houston, Aqib Talib, Leodis McKelvin, Sean Smith, and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie are the top names of the CB FA class. Chris Houston would be my first choice. Talib will probably go back to NE after they win the Super Bowl. I could see this staff going after Rogers-Cromartie from Philly or maybe Sam Shields from Green Bay even though he'll be a RFA.

S: The Chiefs need a safety who's reliable to put next to Berry in the defensive backfield. Top names on the market are Jairus Byrd, Dashon Goldson, Kenny Phillips, William Moore, Pat Chung, and Loius Delmas. Reid isn't known for spending assets on safeties, so I wouldn't expect much from him at this position. Byrd would be a nice addition, but he'll cost a pretty penny.

The Chiefs replace Branden Albert with a less expensive upgrade in Luke Joekel. They get better value with this pick than if they had decided to take a QB #1 overall. Joekel fits into a line that boasts Jon Asamoah, Rodney Hudson, Andy Levitre, and Eric Winston with depth provided by in Stephenson and Allen.

2nd Round
ILB Alec Ogletree Georgia

Ogletree would look GREAT next to DJ inside. Ogletree is a DJ clone. Great sideline to sideline defender with elite speed. He may not be available here, but if he gets passed the Bengals, I think he'll slide. This pick helps with the LB overhaul done by the organization because of their shift from the 2-gap to a 1-gap 3-4.

3rd Round
3a. OLB Alex Okafor Texas
The Chiefs need one more LB for their overhaul and the OLB out of Texas was the lone bright spot on an underwhelming defense. If Okafor is still available in the 3rd, he could be a a steal for the Chiefs.

3b. (compensation for Carr) WR/QB Denard Robinson Michigan

There are worse things to draft late in the 3rd than a play-making athlete who has played the QB position. No one thought Russell Wilson could win the job at QB either.

4th Round *Traded

5th
DB Tyrann Mathieu

Off the field issues should not scare anyone away from top 5 talent in the 5th round. We need another play-maker in the secondary and you couldn't ask for a better one than the "Honey Badger" in the 5th round. (**may be worth a higher pick as we get closer to the draft)

6th Round
QB Logan Thomas Virginia Tech

I know... off the radar, right? Check this out: 6'6 240lb. Bigger than Big Ben, Joe Flacco, and Cam Newton. Newton runs a 4.58, Thomas a 4.67, and Ben a 4.78. Make no mistake, he's definitely a project. Ranked 108 in comp% and 8th in turnovers with a longer than you'd like throwing motion. He'll probably sit for a year or two to refine his craft before he truly competes to be the starter, but if he puts the pieces together, his talent could make him a star. There are worse ways to spend a 6th round pick.

I know it's probably not "big splash" approach to the QB position all of us want, but there's just no clear-cut answer for the Chiefs at #1 overall. There are injury questions about Albert and a VERY good LT option worth the #1 overall pick. Allowing Albert to walk clears up more space to sign some key free agents. If the Chiefs are able to turn a 4th round pick into two QBs who can come compete for the position, I think that's great value for that pick. Tyrod Taylor is a younger Mike Vick. If a mobile QB is what Reid wants, I think the better option is to go get a Tyrod Taylor or Pat White with a later round draft pick trade than wasting the first pick on Geno Smith. I think there's at LEAST an average, short-term solution in that group of QBs that could afford the Chiefs a different opportunity to fill the position long-term in the future.

Think about this for a second: Mike Vick, Tyrod Taylor, Geno Smith, Pat White, Josh Freeman, Jason Campbell, Logan Thomas, E.J. Manual, and Donovan McNabb could all be available to the Chiefs by way of draft, trade, or free agent signing this winter. All of them possess similar attributes. Think about what each of those QBs may cost compared to what they'd bring to the Chiefs and honestly assess which QB presents the greatest value. I'm sorry, but I look at that group of QBs and I just don't see one name that separates himself from the rest of the pack. So why would Geno Smith be worth the #1 overall pick when you could have any of the other guys for MUCH less.

Jennings has obviously been more consistent b/c of QB play. The Steelers have cap problems, it's pretty much a given that he won't be back.

The QB play has been part of the problem with Bowe but Mr.Bowe also takes his share of the blame for the problem. There are games where you don't even know that Bowe is in the game. Some of that also falls on Bowe.

Originally Posted by Ryfo18

Our current GM has had the QB situation solved for years w/ Favre/Rodgers. So of course they don't put extra weight at that position. It's not a need.

Again They have Rodgers because they didn't focus on need. They had bigger needs in 05 then the QB spot. If they had stuck to drafting for need then they wouldn't be in the spot there in today.

Find me a GM that doesn't go by that philosophy, the guy who says "yeah we reach for players here and there." It's GM cliche. Their interpretation of BPA includes positional weights and team needs.

Small example, definitely not the rule...but the 2010 draft. Bradford #1, Jason Pierre-Paul #15. Huge difference in terms of impact? Not really. The Giants needed a pass rusher (they got a good one). The Rams needed a QB. You really think GMs put zero weight into positional need?

Economics (which i did take) would view a product in terms of supply/demand. As your demand increases (every team wants a good QB) and supply remains unchanged, then you have a shortage, which leads to a higher price...well, right now there is a QB shortage. That makes a player like Geno (who is the best QB IMO) much more valuable to the Chiefs b/c of the lack of supply. At some point you can't just compare a QB and a LT and say "this player is absolutely better" if they're both top 10 picks. What makes that LT the "Best Player Available"? I mean seriously, how do you answer that question? In my opinion, you say "These are both outstanding players...we need a QB tho so that wins."

If QB demand were to decrease (to a hypothetical point where they were worth the same as punters), then there would be a surplus, and you could snag a decent QB in the late rounds.

So, you wanted to talk economics...that's as simple as I can put it. Supply/demand. If the best overall player in the Chiefs mind is a 3-4 OLB...you think there is a chance in hell they take him given they have Houston/Hali?

There, in fact, is NOT a "QB shortage." Geno Smith SHOULD NOT be considered a "top 10 pick." THAT'S BEEN MY WHOLE POINT!! He's not worth a top 10 selection, let alone #1 overall. The 2013 QB market for the Chiefs will include Geno Smith, Tyler Wilson, *Aaron Murray, Matt Barkley, Matt Flynn, Kevin Kolb, Alex Smith, Mike Vick, Matt Moore, Nick Foles, Matt Cassell, Ricky Stanzi, and any number of later round draft picks. The supply is there. I'm not going to spend $10 on a bunch of bruised bananas (Geno) when I could spend $3 on a bunch of bruised bananas (any other QB). This decision isn't about supply and demand. It's about bang for the buck. If you don't recognize the value in draft picks, then you have no room complaining about the Tyson Jackson selection.

Since the Chiefs will be adjusting their 3-4 scheme and will probably be cutting Tyson Jackson, then yes... I would bet that an OLB would be their selection at #1 overall. There's also nothing to say they couldn't trade Hali or Houston for additional draft picks. My guess is that they would move one of the guys to a different LB position or Hali to DE considering he's the exact same body type and player as the DEs who play in the NYG 3-4 system.

Please, open your eyes to the "BPA" lingo. It's what everyone says. And I agree with you...it is economics. You're just misunderstanding economics.

The "Best Player Available" lingo is used by everyone across the league. You're kidding yourself if they don't put positional needs Into their "best player" rankings. Please wake up to this. If you still want to debate economics...I'm ready. Explain to me how the Economics course you took justifies your position, please.

I would recommend you crack those economics books back open. There is plenty of supply in this market. Your misunderstanding becomes apparent when you think Geno Smith represents a franchise QB when in fact, he's just another name on a list of at least 10 guys who are expected to be average to above average in the '13 QB market.

Your conclusion of what you think Geno Smith IS, is flawed. Like I said before, your argument is that we should spend $10 on a bunch of bruised bananas when we could get a comparable bunch of bananas for much less. It's a losing argument and deeply flawed. If you agree that Geno Smith IS NOT Andrew Luck or RGIII, then your argument of "supply and demand" does not fit here. If there were a consensus "franchise QB" in this draft, your argument would be valid (so, at least you have that).

I would suggest you read up on utilization of resources... not to mention brushing up on your QB evaluations.

Like I said earlier if we draft Geno I don't think he is ready to start the first game of the year to many things that need work like getting under center and learning how to make 3, 5 and 7 step drops, we may have to start a veteran QB and it might be Cassel if Reid thinks he can get the job done and then in the middle of the season or 2014 Geno might be ready to take over. Do you really think we are going to the SB next year.

If you watched WV, there were plenty of times where Geno goes under center. If you watched the video, there was an entire section dedicated to him looking through progressions, and just about everything else that goes into the QB position.

I never said the Chiefs are going to the SB if they draft Geno. That's ridiculous. I've stated over and over again that I want Geno Smith because he has the most upside of any QB in the draft, without question. Give him a chance and he could be elite, unlike the game-managers in FA that most on here are content with.

I would recommend you crack those economics books back open. There is plenty of supply in this market. Your misunderstanding becomes apparent when you think Geno Smith represents a franchise QB when in fact, he's just another name on a list of at least 10 guys who are expected to be average to above average in the '13 QB market.

Your conclusion of what you think Geno Smith IS, is flawed. Like I said before, your argument is that we should spend $10 on a bunch of bruised bananas when we could get a comparable bunch of bananas for much less. It's a losing argument and deeply flawed. If you agree that Geno Smith IS NOT Andrew Luck or RGIII, then your argument of "supply and demand" does not fit here. If there were a consensus "franchise QB" in this draft, your argument would be valid (so, at least you have that).

I would suggest you read up on utilization of resources... not to mention brushing up on your QB evaluations.

Thanks for the attack of my evaluation skills. I'll gladly revisit this in 2-3 years, Mr. Te'o #1 overall and Burfict in the 1st round. I am fully convinced Geno will be the best QB in this class. So we'll agree to disagree on that.

As far as the Chiefs, If they don't want to take Geno in round 1, I think the next best at the beginning of TD 2 is Zac Dysert. The more I watch him, the more I see things I like.

I never said the Chiefs are going to the SB if they draft Geno. That's ridiculous. I've stated over and over again that I want Geno Smith because he has the most upside of any QB in the draft, without question. Give him a chance and he could be elite, unlike the game-managers in FA that most on here are content with.

If Geno can't take us to a SB why are you so high to draft him? I do not want to draft a QB with the first pick in the draft if I am not 99% sure he can take the team to the SB on his shoulders. If he doesn't the 1st pick was wasted, a #1 QB pick has to be a difference maker to the team if not you are getting nothing but a another game-manager with the first pick.

If Geno can't take us to a SB why are you so high to draft him? I do not want to draft a QB with the first pick in the draft if I am not 99% sure he can take the team to the SB on his shoulders. If he doesn't the 1st pick was wasted, a #1 QB pick has to be a difference maker to the team if not you are getting nothing but a another game-manager with the first pick.

I should've been more specific. I think that Geno can get us to a SB in the future. That's what I meant by "higher upside". It'd be crazy to think a rookie QB can instantly mean SB in this league.

Thanks for the attack of my evaluation skills. I'll gladly revisit this in 2-3 years, Mr. Te'o #1 overall and Burfict in the 1st round. I am fully convinced Geno will be the best QB in this class. So we'll agree to disagree on that.

As far as the Chiefs, If they don't want to take Geno in round 1, I think the next best at the beginning of TD 2 is Zac Dysert. The more I watch him, the more I see things I like.

In regards to vontaze burfict dude was lights out. And from what I have read he was THE leader of the Bengal D. He had a pretty good impact on that team. How he went undrafted is kind of astounding. That kid can play some football.

In regards to vontaze burfict dude was lights out. And from what I have read he was THE leader of the Bengal D. He had a pretty good impact on that team. How he went undrafted is kind of astounding. That kid can play some football.

I don't disagree at all. Just pointing out that a certain someone in these forums called him a 1st rounder last year. He's a solid MLB.

Thanks for the attack of my evaluation skills. I'll gladly revisit this in 2-3 years, Mr. Te'o #1 overall and Burfict in the 1st round. I am fully convinced Geno will be the best QB in this class. So we'll agree to disagree on that.

As far as the Chiefs, If they don't want to take Geno in round 1, I think the next best at the beginning of TD 2 is Zac Dysert. The more I watch him, the more I see things I like.

Te'o and Burfict will have MUCH better careers than Geno Smith. Take it to the bank. When I suggested Burfict in the first round, it was early in the draft process and I was assuming he'd take the draft process as serious as any other LB wanting to turn pro. That didn't happen. I'm pretty sure my final mock had him picked in the 6th or 7th round. But you're right, Jerome Long was a MUCH better pick... it's not like we could've used the Bengal's leading tackler at ILB this year or anything... Hell, didn't ALL 1st round picks lead their teams in tackles, get mentioned in defensive player of the year discussions, and garner pro bowl votes? I'd still take Te'o before I'd take Smith.

BTW, since you brought up supply and demand earlier, I thought I'd get your thoughts on the fact that there will be perhaps ONLY 2 legit franchise type LTs on the free agent market in Jake Long and Branden Albert. If the Chiefs choose not to re-sign Albert who suddenly has back issues, wouldn't it behoove the Chiefs to take the only legit franchise-type LT in this draft #1 overall (you know, since there would be a demand) instead of drafting just another name on a long list of above-average QBs who will be available to the Chiefs in '13?

I mean, if I could get a franchise LT and an above-average QB with my first 2 picks, wouldn't that be better than an above average QB and a LT (or any other player) who wasn't even taken in the first round of a weak draft class? Even if management agreed with your assessment of Smith, even YOU would have to agree that the difference between Geno Smith and whichever QB is available at #34 overall isn't anywhere NEAR the difference between the BPA at #1 and the BPA at #34. It's not even close. If Geno Smith is better than your other guy, Zac Dysert, it's probably only a head above... but the difference between Joekel and Barrett Jones or Lane Johnson is like head, shoulders, waist and knees difference. It's all economics again... opportunity cost at its finest. Why should I spend $5 on Fiji water if I'm hungry AND thirsty when I could spend $2 on Dasani and get a $3 hotdog as well? The difference between Fiji and Dasani isn't big enough to go without the hotdog if I have a demand for both. Allowing Albert to walk frees up cap space and provides an opportunity to upgrade at the position while still getting a nice, cool bottle of water in the 2nd round in the form of the best QB available.

It's amazing to me that you think a system QB who failed to put up NCAA record-breaking stats in a conference known for offense and weak defenses is worth the #1 pick overall. A QB who failed to LEAD his team to more than 2 victories over his final 8 games. Smith had one victory to hang his hat on ALL season and it was a last minute victory in Austin against an average Texas team with a defense ranked 77th.

When you look at film on Geno, do you take into account that the teams he beat had an average defensive rank of 88th? Did you know he LOST to teams with defensive rankings of 92nd (TT), 28th (KSU), 30 (TCU), 64th (OSU), 50th (OU), and 46th (SU)? Any average to above-average defense he faced shut him down... well, outside the juggernaut Iowa State of course.

Of the 4205 yards Smith passed for in 2012, 3,054 were accumulated against teams ranked 56 or worse on defense. That means, in the other 5 games out of the year where he had to play teams ranked 55th or better, he could only manage roughly 1/4 of his TOTAL OUTPUT. The best defense he played against (Kansas St. only 28th defensively) held your "franchise QB" to a pathetic 143 total yards with 2 INTs.

This kid never even SAW a good defense. He never faced a defense chalk full of NFL type talent like Alabama or Florida St. He never saw defenses like Florida or LSU who CONSTANTLY put pressure on the QB. We saw him give up 2 safeties in his bowl game against Syracuse who applied a little pressure, but you think that what you saw from Geno Smith winning against defenses statistically ranked 88th on average is enough to warrant the #1 overall selection?

A guy who never saw a really good defense and who was shut down by average ones... THAT'S your guy?

Can you explain why Geno Smith's 2012 season in a swing pass and screen offense against poor defenses in the Big 12 is better than Tyler Wilson's 2011 season in an NFL style offense in the SEC West with NFL style defenses? What has you so "fully convinced" that Smith's performance has him head and shoulders above Wilson as a "franchise QB" worthy of the #1 overall selection? I'm genuinely curious because your entire argument is based on your opinion that it's Geno Smith, and then everyone else is a GIANT step down from him.

You know what, I'm bored... Let's do an experiment. I typed in "2013 NFL draft board" into google. We'll look at the top 5 responses and see where they've got Geno.

So, out of the top 5 google responses, we had ESPN, CBS, and NFL.com weigh in with 2 independent blogs to give Geno Smith an average player ranking of 14. Middle of the first round.

Now, let's assume each player is WORTH the value of the corresponding draft pick. Geno Smith would be worth 1100 points according to the NFL draft pick value chart: http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

According to the same chart, the Chiefs' #1 pick is worth 3000 points. The difference between the 1100 points Geno is relatively worth and the 3000 points the Chiefs possess is a total of 1900 points. According to the value chart, if the Chiefs took Geno Smith #1 overall, it would be the same as if they took Smith with the 4th AND 14th picks. Would you spend the 4th AND 14th picks for Geno Smith? Let's just pretend that the team picking 14th in the first round is the team that will be picking 14th in every round (not likely, but let's pretend.) In order for that team to move from the 14th spot all the way up to the 1st spot, they'd have to give up their 14th pick (1100pts), their 46th pick (440 pts), 78th pick (200 pts), 110th pick (74 pts), 142nd pick (35 pts), 174th pick (21.8), plus a 2014 5th round pick just to make the math right. For those scoring at home, that's 7 picks to move up 13 spots.

Positional value and importance to any particular team does not mean they should just ignore value lost just because it fills a hole. Teams need to fill holes in the most efficient manner.

Let's do the same experiment but look at where those sources had Luke Joekel ranked:

The more you look at the situation, the more it becomes apparent that the best solution for the Chiefs is to draft the BPA at #1 who could fill/upgrade the 2nd most important position on the team while also saving $6M/yr in cap space instead of gambling the pick on a player like Geno Smith who everyone seems to disagree about. It's REALLY hard to argue that the Chiefs should take such an enormous risk on Smith when you look at the residual benefits of planning on taking Joekel in the draft and letting Albert walk. He's better and cheaper than Albert and if they're not 100% sold on Geno Smith as the second coming of Steve Young or Rich Gannon, the stars couldn't have aligned any better for the Chiefs.

The Chiefs may not have a GREAT option at the QB position in this draft, but they DO have a GREAT option at the 2nd most important position on the field. A GREAT option at the LT position is > a good option at the QB position... especially in a weak class that presents comparable talent in the 2nd round.

However, I still think the ideal scenario is for the Chiefs to trade down. But if they stay at #1 overall, Joekel makes too much sense to pass on.