While Mitt Romney practices his y’alls and jumpin’ catfish and boiled peaches and banana pudding with vanilla wafers, he comes South for what he calls “an away game” — two Southern Tuesday races, in Alabama and Mississippi.

Surprisingly, according to some polls, Romney has an actual chance to pick off one or maybe both of these states. A Rasmussen poll out of Alabama has a virtual three-way tie with Newt at 30%, Rick Santorum at 29 and Romney with 28. And in Mississippi, Ras has Romney ahead with 35 percent and Newt tied with Santorum at 27.

This is Romney’s best chance for the big upset because he still has the split-conservative vote working for him. If Newt doesn’t win both states, he will probably (finally) drop out and leave Santorum to face Mitt one-on-one (plus Ron Paul). It could be fun to watch. I know I’ll be at the tube Tuesday, with a plate full of biscuits and chocolate gravy – an Alabama specialty, I’m told. That’s almost enough to make you want to visit for a spell. Almost.

Bonus pick: Sarah Palin. Tells CNN she won’t rule out a run in 2016 – which would mean, of course, that the Republican nominee would have to lose in 2012. A run in 2016, though, could mean a sequel for “Game Change.” Julianne Moore, keep in touch.

The big question after Super Tuesday is not who won – it was, well, closer than many had guessed – but why Mitt Romney can’t put a very weak field away.

There are two things you can probably count on now. That Romney will eventually be the GOP nominee. And that Romney won’t get the nomination, however, without spending a lot of capital — the money kind of capital and the political kind.

When Romney won in Michigan last week, everyone said it was a case of winning ugly. Well, post-Ohio – which turned out to be as close as the width of an aspirin stuck between Foster Freiss’ knees – it’s still ugly. Romney can’t get into general election form because he is still being pulled to the right by Santorum. And the longer it takes him to get to the general election, the weaker Romney looks.

Romney outspent Santorum more than five to one on Super Tuesday, and still it took nearly all night before he could claim Ohio, the night’s big prize. Santorum, who claims to be the blue-collar candidate, can’t win the blue-collar states, which would seem to be a problem for him. And if you’re the kind of person who insists on looking at the math, there’s an even bigger problem. It’s hard to see how any of it adds up for delegate-shy Santorum.

But he’s not dead. He is, as Miracle Max would say, only mostly dead. And when you have your Super PAC, that means you’re still alive. Ask the Newtster.

Romney leaves Super Tuesday with very little momentum. The next states in play are Kansas and Mississippi and Alabama and Hawaii. Newt Gingrich has a great chance in the southern states. He’s now calling himself the tortoise — leaving us to wonder if that means the walrus is Paul — but he’s a tortoise that may be native only to the South.

Santorum will also play in those states. If slow-moving Romney – no hare himself – starts losing more states to either or both, he will look only weaker.

Early in the day, Barack Obama stole the spotlight from the Republicans with a Super Tuesday news conference — some coincidence, huh? – in which he got mostly questions on foreign policy. When questions start to move away from the economy, that’s all Obama could ask for. And in what may be a real upset, Obama is the one who looks like a grownup in foreign affairs. He called out the Republican candidates for talking tough on Iran without explaining to Americans what the costs of going to war in Iran would be. He knocked them for their “casualness” about war.

It did not turn out, of course, to be a casual evening for anyone. Romney won. He won the most states and easily won the most delegates. So why did it seem that instead of winning, he had just barely survived?

We — by which I mean the media elites – have apparently decided that Ohio is the only state that matters tomorrow among the 10 states voting on Super Tuesday, except, for some reason, maybe Tennessee. But there are 419 delegates at stake across the nation, the first really big haul of the campaign season.

Here’s what you should watch for:

1. Ohio. The smart money has Romney with a slight lead. There are good reasons for this. Romney has momentum (five straight wins). And Santorum has been having trouble getting on message after his “throw up” and “snob” double-dip — which, for a time, Santorum seened to think was his message. Romney can afford to lose here. Santorum cannot. Both candidates understand this, which is what makes it such a good fight. If Santorum can’t win a blue-collar midwest state like Ohio, it’s hard to see any chance for him to win the nomination.

2. Tennessee. Once upon a time, there was a Newt Super Tuesday strategy, in which Gingrich would win his home state of Georgia, win in Tennessee, win in Oklahoma, score well in Ohio and make a case that he could overcome his essential Newtness and still beat Mitt Romney. That was then. Now, Santorum needs to win here to to show he can win in the South – and Tennessee is an entry point. Romney has been closing here as well. If Romney wins Ohio and Tennessee, all the “Inevitability” headlines would return.

3. Home town-ness. Newt is expected to win in GA. Nobody will care, except maybe Newt. And Callista. And their guy at Tiffany’s. (Mitt has MA, one of his many home states.)

4. Delegate watch. The Santorum delegate-slate debacle in Ohio (he could lose as many as 18 for not filing in time) shows that Romney has all the organizational chops in the GOP race. Nobody else has a national campaign. Everyone is trying to play catch-up – and not playing it very well. The longer the field stays split, the better for Romney.

5. Slog-lovers. Will anyone drop out? If Newt really wants Romney to lose, he would drop out after Tuesday and swing his support to Santorum. My guess is he won’t, because he enjoys running more than he enjoys Romney losing. Santorum – whatever happens – will figure it’s JFK’s fault, and that he’s going to stick around. Ron Paul isn’t going anywhere, because why should he?

Comments Off on Five Things To Watch on Super Tuesday — Other than Wolf Blitzer

The GOP race is headed for a 10-state showdown Tuesday, and all anyone can talk about is El Rushbo, the Viagra man himself who has united the country (against him) by calling a Georgetown Law student a “slut” for having the nerve to testify about — hold your ears – contraception.

Just days after Rick Santorum cost himself a chance at a Romney-crushing upset in Michigan by going all Pepto-Bismol on JFK, Limbaugh makes an entire nation sick to its stomach by suggesting the young woman, Sandra Fluke, should pay back society for providing her with free birth control pills by making a sex tape for Rush and his porn-watching gang.

Here’s the quote: “So, Miss Fluke, and the rest of you feminazis, here’s the deal. If we are going to pay for your contraceptives . . . we want something for it. We want you to post the videos online so we can all watch.”

Yes, it’s Rush and feminazis and contraception and porn. And so we go, while we still can, to the big board (last week’s rankings).

1. Mitt Romney. If he wins in Ohio, that would be the beginning of the end. (1)

2. Rick Santorum. If he wins in Ohio, that could be the end of the beginning. (2)

3. Ron Paul. Maybe he can find a Super Tuesday caucus he can win. Just for the heck of it. (3)

Mitt Romney got his must-win victory in Michigan. He didn’t have to destroy his opponent to do it – not that he didn’t try. Rick “My Mom Went to College and She’s Not a Snob” Santorum got sick all over himself with no help required. How many votes do you think Nausea Boy cost himself with his JFK gaffe, particularly among older Catholic Reagan Democrats, the ones whose family had Kennedy’s picture hanging on the wall?

How many votes do you think he lost by telling people their kids don’t need to go to college like that snobby Obama?

Santorum had a chance to grievously wound Romney and grievously blew it. You could see from his concession speech that he was re-calibrating his message, leaving out Satan and, well, hurling. The pressure was on Romney in Michigan. If he had lost, chaos would have followed – and also calls from GOP wise heads for Jeb or for Christie or for someone, anyone, to save them. Santorum not only lost the chance to hurt Romney, he also gave Newt Gingrich hope to stick around, at least through the Georgia primary next week.

Now the pressure is all on Santorum. Next week is Super Tuesday, but the only really super state is Ohio. If Santorum can’t win there, it will be hard for him to make anyone believe ever again that he’s actually a credible candidate. He got his credibility after winning here in Colorado in the February trifecta. Now he has to show that he has a populist message that doesn’t include needing to buy any Pepto-Bismol.

What he has to realize is that he’s got the social conservative vote – or at least enough of it. If that’s all he gets, though, he loses. The math is pretty simple, although maybe his math teachers were all lefties who taught young Rick only about five-year plans.

Santorum is ahead in the Ohio polling. In fact, a University of Cincinnati poll released Tuesday has Santorum leading Romney, 37-26. The big question Tuesday was how much momentum Romney will get out of Michigan- or will the victory be seen as the least a home-state favorite could do.

My guess is that the win in Michigan doesn’t help Romney much in Ohio, where he’s pretty much a known entity. The bigger question is how much Santorum gets hurt by the way he lost.

When they write the history of this campaign, there will be a large chapter devoted to what happened to Newt Gingrich’s surge when it hit Florida. He had the polls. He had his buddy Sheldon’s money. He had Mitt Romney’s Swiss bank account. But when Romney was forced to attack Newtie in the debates, Gingrich — the street fighter from way back – decided not to fight back. Why? I have no idea. Maybe he thought the Bad Newt couldn’t get elected president (he can’t). Maybe he thought Good Newt is an attractive candidate (he’s not). Maybe he just wants to go back to being his old self, the historian/not lobbyist.

Whatever happened, he might as well have escorted Romney down the path to Florida’s primary election Tuesday. If Romney wins, he probably wins the whole thing.

To the big board (last week’s ranking):

1. Mitt Romney. It’s not too late for Cayman Islands vacation. (1)

2. Newt Gingrich. Good Newt? Not so much. (2)

3. Ron Paul. Washington Post writes that — surprise – Paul knew all about the nasty racist newsletters. Which will discourage exactly no one in the Ron Paul Revolution. (3)

4. Rick Santorum. He proves there’s a lot more to winning nomination than scoring well in debates. (4)

Bonus pick: Wolf Blitzer. When Newt predictably came after him in the debate after Wolf asked a perfectly legitimate question, Wolf defended himself well. And then Romney defended him. And then Newt looked — what? Petty? Disingenuous? Demagoguish? How about essentially Newtish?

We’re heading toward the last week in Iowa. It’ll be the post-Christmas shopping rush. But Mitt’s the only guy who’s got any money – and we can assume he’s picking out parting gifts for Newt, Paul and the rest of the gang. This week is about who gets to play in Iowa. On Jan. 3, we learn who gets to play in New Hampshire.

To the boards: (last week’s ranking).

1. Mitt Romney. He’s got the Super Pac attack trained on Newt, who has reverted to his why-can’t-we-all-get-along phase. (2)

2. Ron Paul. He’s the favorite to win in Iowa, which is almost as believable as the claim he never even read those racist newsletters from the ’90s written under his name. (3)

3. Newt Gingrich. What were the odds that Gingrich would turn out to be the nice guy in any race? (1)

4. Rick Perry. He’s making no news. That is always a good thing for Perry. (4)

Whatever else happens in the Republican campaign, Mitt Romney seems to stay in the 20-to-25 percent range. His range, in fact, is not unlike his hair. If it moves, it’s not so anyone would notice. But the way things look in Iowa right now, 20 to 25 percent would be great for him. The race is that wide open. There’s a chance that five players could score in double figures. Bachmann and Perry both helped themselves in the Thursday debate. Attack ads are making people think twice – or, in Newt’s case, it should be three times — about Gingrich. Paul is Paul, meaning that he’s got enthusiastic backers and also a low ceiling. The more winners there are in Iowa, the better it is for Romney in New Hampshire.

So, to the big board (last week’s ranking):

1. Newt Gingrich. It gets snowy in Iowa this time of year. Watch for slippage. (tied for 1)

5. Michele Bachmann. Played Newt-the-bully card at debate. Does that make her look weak or strong? (6)

6. Jon Huntsman. Not sure what he was doing in Iowa. (5)

7. Rick Santorum. Terrible debate. Trump would have fired him. (7)

8. Gary Johnson. Yes, Gary Johnson (8)

Bonus pick: Tim Tebow. State Sen. Greg Brophy mentioned to me the other night how cool it would be if someone at a GOP debate would Tebow. Rick Perry came very close. If not for his bad back, he might have gone all . . . the . . . way.

Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain speaks to supporters during a town hall meeting at Laurel Ridge on December 2, 2011, in Rock Hill, South Carolina. Cain said he would make an announcement about his campaign in Atlanta tomorrow.

I don’t know who’s going to win the Republican race, but I can now safely nominate Rick Perry as the greatest underachiever since . . . uh, um, yeah, let’s see, oops. You remember when Perry said he was thinking of skipping some debates. Let’s just say he should have started with Wednesday’s. He’s either French toast or Texas toast or um, you know, what the hey, something.

To the board: (last week’s ranking)

1. Mitt Romney. The most popular conservative since John McCain. (1)

2. Herman Cain. Polls show no slippage. If he can get four more women to accuse him, he might make No. 1 yet. (4)

3. Newt Gingrich. If he looks tired, it’s because he was up late listening to latest Nixon tapes. (2)

4. Ron Paul. You notice that no one argued with him at last debate? (6)

5. Rick Santorum. Friendly reminder. He lost his last Senate race by 18 points. (5)

Among my other sins, I'm a serial columnist. Over too many years to mention, I've written news columns, sports columns, features columns and op-ed columns. My first job was covering the Virginia Squires and Dr. J in the old American Basketball Association. I moved from the Virginian-Pilot to the Los Angeles Times, then to the Baltimore Sun, then to the late Rocky Mountain News and on to The Post.

A blog about whatever thoughts bounce through Mike Littwin's head — from politics to basketball (speaking of bouncing) to politics to books to politics to movies to politics to Sarah Palin (whenever I need the extra clicks).