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How do you determine upfront chances for succes ? You can't. It can go up, or it can go down. You take your measures accordingly, that's what is important because that will define the outcome of the investment.

I think believing upfront that one entry is more likely to be successful than another is like believing you can tell the market what to do. You may be able to create an edge on entry over the long haul by analyzing statistics and executing it flawlessly (think Buyzone); the likelyhood of this being of interest is perhaps higher for scalping. But you still can't tell upfront with absolute certainty what's going to happen next. That's also one of the messages of Mark Douglas. So considering that's the case, why bother about the entry ?

At least by flipping a coin, you eliminate your own psyche and built-in bias towards the hope to have an entry that is likely to give you a chance to take profit I should think.

I just had a look at a book by Van K. Tharp called Trade your way to financial freedom. Some interesting remarks from page 200 re. market entry.