The first 3 parts of this preview series looked at coaches, rosters, and schedules. Now, we’ll put it all together and project how well each FBS team will perform this season.

The table below will be updated throughout the season to track up-to-date projections as well as compare against how accurate the pre-season projections turn out to be. In addition to team and conference affiliation, the table displays the following:

Preseason expected wins (this will remain unchanged throughout the season)

It would take a mild upset somewhere along the way for each of Ohio State, Alabama, Washington, and South Florida to not go 12-0 in the regular season.

My numbers are very optimistic on UAB, Nevada, Hawaii, and UTEP; each with more than 2.5 expected wins above the Bovada over/under.

Conversely, my numbers are not high on Minnesota, Army, San Diego State, Louisiana Tech, and Miami OH; each with more than 2.5 expected wins below the Bovada over/under.

It is a bit surprising to see Boise State projected at only 6.17 and Stanford at 6.77 wins. Stanford has a pretty brutal schedule, but Boise’s is manageable. They’re one to keep an eye on.

UCLA at only 5.48 wins doesn’t bode well for Jim Mora coaching the Bruins in 2018. Notre Dame at 7.06 may not be enough for Brian Kelly, either.

Postseason Outlook

It really doesn’t make much sense to forecast postseason results before the season has begun because so many factors have yet to be realized (injuries, breakout players), but for ease of interpreting my full FBS projections here are the projected postseason championships based on the information available today.

Despite a projected 13-0 season, South Florida’s schedule is far too weak to be considered for a playoff berth. It is thoroughly disappointing that my numbers project the same 4 teams as appeared in the 2016 College Football Playoff, but each of these 4 returns a very strong roster (the top 3 nationally plus Clemson at 8th nationally), their schedules are manageable (Alabama’s is the toughest at 16th but their toughest game is in week 1, while the other 3 schedules rank in the 50s), and they’ve all been on the biggest stage recently so they know what it takes to get there. At any rate, I’m confident some sort of chaos will derail at least one of these teams’ chances, but I don’t have a way to quantify that chaos yet.

This marks the end of my 2017 season preview series. Now we have actual college football games to watch this week! Win probabilities for Week 0 games will be posted prior to Saturday.

Scheduling matters. A team may have its strongest roster in years, but if it faces a brutal schedule it may not produce a record to reflect the strength of its roster. Conversely, a team may be over-valued due to a cakewalk of a schedule.

Biggest games of the year

The 2017 season features 3 games in which it is the hardest game of the year for both teams:

Alabama vs Florida State

Ohio State at Michigan

South Florida at Central Florida

These first two should not be too surprising, but when you look at South Florida’s schedule and realize their most difficult game is at Central Florida it’s no wonder they are a heavy favorite to be the G5 representative in a NY6 bowl.

The table below ranks the overall strength of schedule (regular season only) for all FBS teams. The SoS value represents the total number of standard deviations above or below a team’s complete schedule is relative to an “average” FBS schedule (i.e. cumulatively game-by-game, so if all games were 1 SD above the mean, the SoS value=12) . Additionally, the easiest game and 4 most difficult games with venues are listed next to each team to help illustrate why their schedule ranks in its position.

*Note: Most teams have not posted their Fall rosters yet, so this preview is looking at Spring 2017 rosters. Values will change slightly as Fall rosters become available; freshmen who didn’t enroll early, off-season attrition, and injuries/suspensions have not yet been factored into my roster values.

I evaluate rosters by looking at a few components: returning all-conference/all-American team members, recruiting rankings, and class standing for every player on every roster. After assigning each player a score, I add up the scores for the top-70 rated players on each roster to determine the overall roster value. I’ve settled on 70 instead of the 85 full-scholarship number because players beyond the 70th man on the roster are rarely seeing any game action. I also adjust for injuries/suspensions such that if a player in the top 70 will be out for a game, his player score will temporarily be set to zero and everyone beneath him moves up a slot, so the 71st player on the roster would then move into the top 70 and their score would count towards the roster value. Roster values are used in combination with coach win/expectation rate and game venue to compare teams and determine the likelihood of winning a given game.

Once again, Alabama and Ohio State are in a class by themselves when it comes to talent on the roster. Newcomers to FBS for 2017, UAB and Coastal Carolina, may be facing a bit of an acclimation period until they can assemble a more complete roster, though UAB compares rather favorably to their Conference USA brethren.

It’s a bit jarring to see Illinois and Syracuse so low on this list. South Florida should be a serious contender for a NY6 bowl in year 1 under Charlie Strong.

School

Top 70

Conference

Alabama

106.25

SEC

Ohio State

106.25

B1G

Washington

92

P12

Florida State

89.5

ACC

Clemson

86.25

ACC

LSU

83.25

SEC

Oklahoma

80.25

XII

Georgia

79.5

SEC

Texas

77.25

XII

Auburn

76.25

SEC

Penn State

74.5

B1G

USC

72.5

P12

Oregon

71

P12

TCU

71

XII

UCLA

69.25

P12

Michigan

67.75

B1G

Florida

66

SEC

Notre Dame

65.75

Ind

South Florida

64.25

Amer

Ole Miss

64

SEC

Oklahoma State

63.25

XII

Texas A&M

62.25

SEC

Arizona State

58.25

P12

Tennessee

57.25

SEC

Kansas State

54.75

XII

Miami FL

54.5

ACC

Nebraska

54.25

B1G

Washington State

53

P12

Arkansas State

52.5

SunBelt

Michigan State

52.5

B1G

Utah

52.5

P12

Western Kentucky

52.25

CUSA

Louisville

52.25

ACC

Toledo

52

MAC

Arkansas

51.25

SEC

Troy

50

SunBelt

Central Michigan

49.25

MAC

BYU

48

Ind

Stanford

48

P12

Colorado

47.75

P12

North Carolina State

47.25

ACC

New Mexico State

46.75

SunBelt

Northern Illinois

46.5

MAC

Kentucky

46.25

SEC

Colorado State

46.25

MtnW

Iowa State

46

XII

Appalachian State

46

SunBelt

Baylor

45.25

XII

Memphis

45

Amer

Pitt

45

ACC

Central Florida

44.75

Amer

Maryland

44.75

B1G

Northwestern

44.25

B1G

Western Michigan

44

MAC

Ohio

43.75

MAC

San Diego State

43.75

MtnW

Nevada

43.25

MtnW

Boise State

43.25

MtnW

Mississippi State

43

SEC

Akron

42.75

MAC

Houston

42.75

Amer

California

42.75

P12

North Carolina

42.75

ACC

South Carolina

42

SEC

Tulsa

41.5

Amer

Temple

40.5

Amer

Missouri

40.25

SEC

Arizona

40

P12

Hawaii

39.75

MtnW

Virginia

39.75

ACC

Virginia Tech

39.5

ACC

Iowa

39.5

B1G

Wisconsin

39.5

B1G

Middle Tennessee

39.25

CUSA

Indiana

38.75

B1G

Southern Miss

38

CUSA

Georgia State

37.25

SunBelt

Vanderbilt

37.25

SEC

San Jose State

37.25

MtnW

Bowling Green

36.75

MAC

Oregon State

36.5

P12

UAB

36.5

CUSA

UTSA

36.25

CUSA

North Texas

36

CUSA

Eastern Michigan

35.25

MAC

West Virginia

35

XII

Louisiana-Lafayette

34.75

SunBelt

Florida Atlantic

34.5

CUSA

UTEP

34.5

CUSA

New Mexico

34.25

MtnW

Rice

34.25

CUSA

Minnesota

33.75

B1G

Old Dominion

33.5

CUSA

Georgia Tech

33

ACC

Purdue

32.75

B1G

Rutgers

32.25

B1G

Kent State

32

MAC

Cincinnati

32

Amer

Duke

31.75

ACC

East Carolina

31.5

Amer

Buffalo

31.5

MAC

Boston College

31

ACC

Idaho

30.5

SunBelt

Navy

30.5

Amer

Wyoming

30.5

MtnW

Texas Tech

30.5

XII

SMU

30.25

Amer

Connecticut

29.75

Amer

Wake Forest

29.75

ACC

Florida International

28.75

CUSA

Louisiana Tech

28.75

CUSA

Marshall

28.5

CUSA

Coastal Carolina

28.5

SunBelt

UNLV

27.5

MtnW

Fresno State

27.25

MtnW

Utah State

27

MtnW

Miami OH

26.5

MAC

Massachusetts

26.25

MAC

Tulane

26.25

Amer

Kansas

26

XII

Charlotte

26

CUSA

Georgia Southern

25.25

SunBelt

Ball State

24.75

MAC

Air Force

24.75

MtnW

Syracuse

24.25

ACC

Illinois

23

B1G

South Alabama

22.5

SunBelt

Louisiana-Monroe

22

SunBelt

Army

21.5

Ind

Texas State

18

SunBelt

Short preview this week, but the next two weeks previewing schedules and season projections, respectively, will feature much more content.

Fall camp is underway across the country, which means the season is finally around the corner! This year I have split the season preview into four parts: Coaches, Rosters, Schedules, and Projections. First up we’ll take a look at coaching, how it impacts a team’s success, how much turnover can be expected year-to-year, and how intertwined coaching ties have become at the Power 5 level.

Win/expectation rate

This value represents the rate which a coach wins games compared to their expectation, in terms of win probability. The input data is the most recent 4 seasons which a coach has led his current team, weighted towards the most recent seasons. If a coach has been with his team for fewer than 4 seasons, then his full tenure with the current team is used.

As an example, Paul Chryst* has the highest win/expectation rate among active coaches, at .3212. This means that Chryst increases Wisconsin’s win probability relative to their roster strength by approximately .32 standard deviations. By default, all coaches in their first year with a team start the season at zero and the rate adjusts after each game.

Coaches on the bottom end of the spectrum are likely to be fired without marked improvement. For reference, the lowest win/expectation rate in 2016 was Charlie Strong at Texas, with a rate of -.3126.

The inherent bias in this scale favors coaches who don’t recruit as strongly but win a lot of games, and penalizes coaches who recruit very strong rosters. This is why you don’t see names like Nick Saban or Urban Meyer near the top of this list (their recruiting prowess will be recognized in the Rosters preview).

*This high win expectation rate at Wisconsin tends to exist regardless of who is their current head coach, suggesting that recruiting ranking services are undervaluing Wisconsin prospects.

Highest win/expectation rates heading into 2017:

School

Coach

Win/Expectation Rate

Wisconsin

Paul Chryst

0.3212

Air Force

Troy Calhoun

0.3189

Navy

Ken Niumatalolo

0.3128

Tulsa

Philip Montgomery

0.2796

Appalachian State

Scott Satterfield

0.2496

Troy

Neal Brown

0.2251

West Virginia

Dana Holgorsen

0.2242

Utah

Kyle Whittingham

0.2187

Washington State

Mike Leach

0.2159

BYU

Kalani Sitake

0.2120

Virginia Tech

Justin Fuente

0.2051

Lowest win/expectation rates:

School

Coach

Win/Expectation Rate

East Carolina

Scottie Montgomery

-0.1735

Missouri

Barry Odom

-0.1748

Massachusetts

Mark Whipple

-0.1870

Kansas

David Beaty

-0.1933

Texas State

Everett Withers

-0.2029

Georgia

Kirby Smart

-0.2090

Rutgers

Chris Ash

-0.2252

Notre Dame

Brian Kelly

-0.2438

Charlotte

Brad Lambert

-0.2516

UCLA

Jim L. Mora

-0.3007

Virginia

Bronco Mendenhall

-0.3094

It’s not realistic to say a coach is actually on the hot seat in year 2 so most of these guys don’t belong in that conversation just yet, though if they under-perform expectations again their names may come up in that discussion next year. Brian Kelly and Jim Mora, on the other hand, desperately need to have a successful 2017. It’s interesting to see BYU with one of the highest rates and their former coach Bronco Mendenhall with the lowest rate. Another year will shed light on whether he is a good fit at Virginia.

New coaches

FBS coaching turnover rate is typically around 22 coaches per year, and 2017 falls right in line with 23 coaches starting their first season with their team. The lowest number of new coaches to start a season since 1987 was 11 in 1988 followed by 12 in 2006. The highest number of new coaches was 33 to start the 2013 season.

Team

New Coach

Coach’s Previous Stop

Baylor

Matt Rhule

Temple, Head Coach

California

Justin Wilcox

Wisconsin, DC

Cincinnati

Luke Fickell

Ohio State, co-DC

Connecticut

Randy Edsall

Detroit Lions, staff

Florida Atlantic

Lane Kiffin

Alabama, OC

Florida International

Butch Davis

North Carolina, HC (2010)

Fresno State

Jeff Tedford

Washington, staff

Georgia State

Shawn Elliott

South Carolina, OL

Houston

Major Applewhite

Houston, OC

Indiana

Tom Allen

Indiana, DC

LSU

Ed Orgeron

LSU, DL & interim Head Coach

Minnesota

P. J. Fleck

Western Michigan, Head Coach

Nevada

Jay Norvell

Arizona State, PGC

Oklahoma

Lincoln Riley

Oklahoma, OC

Ole Miss

Matt Luke

Ole Miss, OC

Oregon

Willie Taggart

South Florida, Head Coach

Purdue

Jeff Brohm

Western Kentucky, Head Coach

San Jose State

Brent Brennan

Oregon State, WR

South Florida

Charlie Strong

Texas, Head Coach

Temple

Geoff Collins

Florida, DC

Texas

Tom Herman

Houston, Head Coach

Western Kentucky

Mike Sanford Jr

Notre Dame, OC

Western Michigan

Tim Lester

Purdue, QB

Iowa is the only FBS program to have the same coach since 2000. Houston and Georgia Southern have experienced the most coaching turnover in that time, each with 7 different head coaches during the Kirk Ferentz era at Iowa.

Next Man Up (Power 5 only)

In order to prepare for inevitable turnover, athletic directors across the country need to have a list of names ready to go should a replacement be needed on short notice. Here are some names that are likely to be in the conversation for Power 5 openings in 2018, as well as candidates with ties* to each Power 5 school:

Available Big-Name coaches:

Art Briles– Fired amidst scandal at Baylor. At age 61 and carrying recent baggage, it is unlikely that Briles will land a head coaching gig again, but a desperate program may take a flyer on him at OC.

Jeff Fisher– Most recently coached the Los Angeles Rams in 2016, Fisher has never coached outside of the NFL. At age 59, he may be content to stay out of coaching, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see his name floated around for high-profile college openings.

Hugh Freeze– Very recently let go at Ole Miss, Freeze may be a little toxic for a year or so. However, if Bobby Petrino can bounce back from his incident, Freeze should be able to as well. Freeze is only 47 years old; he’ll be back in coaching one day.

Jim Grobe– Last seen as Baylor’s interim coach in 2016, but at age 65 is probably not a viable head coaching hire anymore.

Mark Helfrich– Fired from Oregon after a disappointing 2016 season, but just 3 years removed from a national championship game appearance. Only 43 years old, Helfrich will definitely get another shot very soon.

Chip Kelly– Possibly the biggest name out there at the moment. Kelly will be mentioned for every high profile college and NFL opening until he accepts an offer. At 53 years old, he’s got plenty of years left in the tank.

Les Miles– Fired mid-season 2016 at LSU, but Miles is still very much a viable head-coaching candidate and has expressed interest in wanting to get back in the game ASAP. He’ll turn 64 this fall, but Miles would be a great get for a program looking to make a quick splash in recruiting.

Bo Pelini– Currently the head coach for FCS Youngstown State, but Pelini is way too good of a coach to stay at that level for long. He’s only 49 years old, and last year took the Penguins to the FCS championship game. He won 9 or 10 games in each of his 7 seasons as Nebraska’s head coach.

Bob Stoops– Recently retired from Oklahoma and has publicly stated he wants to enjoy his retirement, but programs will definitely attempt to lure Stoops back into the game. He’ll turn 57 this season.

Jim Tressel– Currently the president at Youngstown State. It seems like if Tressel was going to get back into coaching it would’ve happened for the 2017 season, as his show-cause penalty expired in December 2016. He’s 64 years old, so it’s difficult to imagine a high-profile program chasing him, but this would be a very splashy hire for anyone looking to get a little publicity.

Tommy Tuberville– Most recently fired from Cincinnati, Tuberville may not grab another head coaching gig at age 62, but would be an appealing addition to a staff for recruiting purposes.

Team

Current Coach

Replacement Candidate & connection

Alabama

Nick Saban

Dabo Swinney, Clemson head coach- former Alabama player & WR coach

Arizona State

Todd Graham

Jay Norvell, Nevada head coach- former Arizona State PGC

Arizona

Rich Rodriguez

Dino Babers, Syracuse head coach- former Arizona OC

Arkansas

Bret Bielema

Gus Malzahn, Auburn head coach- former Arkansas OC

Auburn

Gus Malzahn

Jimbo Fisher, Florida State head coach- former Auburn QB coach

Baylor

Matt Rhule

Philip Montgomery, Tulsa head coach- former Baylor OC

Boston College

Steve Addazio

Doug Martin, New Mexico State head coach- former Boston College OC

California

Justin Wilcox

Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns head coach- former California OC

Clemson

Dabo Swinney

Chad Morris, SMU head coach- former Clemson OC

Colorado

Mike MacIntyre

Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern head coach- former Colorado GA

Duke

David Cutcliffe

Scottie Montgomery, East Carolina head coach- former Duke OC

Florida

Jim McElwain

Geoff Collins, Temple head coach- former Florida DC

Florida State

Jimbo Fisher

Kirby Smart, Georgia head coach- former Florida State GA

Georgia

Kirby Smart

Mike Bobo, Colorado State head coach- former Georgia OC

Georgia Tech

Paul Johnson

Jeff Monken, Army head coach- former Georgia Tech RB coach

Illinois

Lovie Smith

Paul Petrino, Idaho head coach- former Illinois OC

Indiana

Tom Allen

Rod Carey, Northern Illinois head coach- former Indiana player

Iowa

Kirk Ferentz

Bret Bielema, Arkansas head coach- former Iowa player & LB coach

Iowa State

Matt Campbell

Chris Ash, Rutgers head coach- former Iowa State DB coach

Kansas

David Beaty

Dave Doeren, North Carolina State head coach- former Kansas co-DC

Kansas State

Bill Snyder

Brad Lambert, Charlotte head coach- former Kansas State player

Kentucky

Mark Stoops

Neal Brown, Troy head coach- former Kentucky OC

Louisville

Bobby Petrino

Jeff Brohm, Purdue head coach- former Louisville player & OC

LSU

Ed Orgeron

Frank Wilson, UTSA head coach- former LSU RB coach

Maryland

D.J. Durkin

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State head coach- former Maryland PGC

Miami FL

Mark Richt

Mark Whipple, Massachusetts head coach- former Miami FL OC

Michigan State

Mark Dantonio

Pat Narduzzi, Pitt head coach- former Michigan State DC

Michigan

Jim Harbaugh

D.J. Durkin, Maryland head coach- former Michigan DC

Minnesota

P. J. Fleck

Everett Withers, Texas State head coach- former Minnesota DC

Mississippi State

Dan Mullen

Mark Hudspeth, Louisiana-Lafayette head coach- former Mississippi State PGC

Missouri

Barry Odom

Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach- former Missouri OC

Nebraska

Mike Riley

Scott Frost, Central Florida head coach- former Nebraska player & GA

North Carolina

Larry Fedora

Blake Anderson, Arkansas State head coach- former North Carolina OC

North Carolina State

Dave Doeren

Doc Holliday, Marshall head coach- former North Carolina State WR coach

Northwestern^

Pat Fitzgerald

Kevin Wilson, Ohio State OC- former Northwestern OC

Notre Dame

Brian Kelly

Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech head coach, former Notre Dame OC

Ohio State

Urban Meyer

Tom Herman, Texas head coach- former Ohio State OC

Oklahoma

Lincoln Riley

Seth Littrell, North Texas head coach- former Oklahoma player

Oklahoma State

Mike Gundy

Larry Fedora, North Carolina head coach- former Oklahoma State OC

Ole Miss

Matt Luke

Tom Allen, Indiana head coach- former Ole Miss LB coach

Oregon

Willie Taggart

Chris Petersen, Washington head coach- former Oregon WR coach

Oregon State

Gary Andersen

Kalani Sitake, BYU head coach- former Oregon State DC

Penn State

James Franklin

Matt Rhule, Baylor head coach- former Penn State player

Pitt

Pat Narduzzi

Mike Norvell, Memphis head coach- former Pitt co-OC

Purdue

Jeff Brohm

Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M head coach- former Purdue player & WR coach

Rutgers

Chris Ash

P.J. Fleck, Minnesota head coach- former Rutgers WR coach

South Carolina

Will Muschamp

Shawn Elliott, Georgia State head coach- former South Carolina co-OC

Stanford

David Shaw

Willie Taggart, Oregon head coach- former Stanford RB coach

Syracuse

Dino Babers

Tim Lester, Western Michigan head coach- former Syracuse OC

TCU

Gary Patterson

Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech head coach- former TCU co-OC

Tennessee

Butch Jones

Dave Clawson, Wake Forest head coach- former Tennessee OC

Texas A&M

Kevin Sumlin

David Beaty, Kansas head coach- former Texas A&M WR coach

Texas

Tom Herman

Major Applewhite, Houston head coach- former Texas player & co-OC

Texas Tech

Kliff Kingsbury

Mike Jinks, Bowling Green head coach- former Texas Tech RB coach

UCLA

Jim L. Mora

Brent Brennan, San Jose State head coach, former UCLA player

USC

Clay Helton

Mike Riley, Nebraska head coach- former USC OC

Utah

Kyle Whittingham

Gary Andersen, Oregon State head coach- former Utah DC

Vanderbilt

Derek Mason

Mike MacIntyre, Colorado head coach- former Vanderbilt player#

Virginia

Bronco Mendenhall

No obvious candidate with ties to school

Virginia Tech

Justin Fuente

Bud Foster, current Virginia Tech DC

Wake Forest

Dave Clawson

Troy Calhoun, Air Force head coach- former Wake Forest OC

Washington

Chris Petersen

Jim L. Mora, UCLA head coach- former Washington player & GA

Washington State

Mike Leach

James Franklin, Penn State head coach- former Washington State TE coach

West Virginia

Dana Holgorsen

Todd Graham, Arizona State head coach- former West Virginia co-DC

Wisconsin

Paul Chryst

Justin Wilcox, California head coach- former Wisconsin DC

*Incredibly, every Power 5 program except Virginia and Virginia Tech has ties to a current head coach in either the NFL or at another FBS program. Note that the viability of candidates with ties to a school may not be great, this is just an illustration of how intertwined the coaching community is today.

^The only active head coach with Northwestern ties is Jim Caldwell with the Detroit Lions. At age 62, Caldwell seemed less likely than Wilson (age 55) as a candidate which would be mentioned as a viable replacement.

#MacIntyre eventually transferred to and graduated from Georgia Tech, but began his college playing career with Vanderbilt.

It started off so well. 29 of 32 in Round 1 with all of the Sweet 16 still intact. Then Wisconsin knocked out my national champion pick and my entire bracket is worthless. So, what went wrong?

Don’t ignore the immeasurables. I was so immersed in the numbers from this season in the week leading up to the tournament that I completely ignored the factors that are either not quantifiable or difficult to objectively quantify. Villanova was the defending champ, and thus had a high likelihood of complacency in this year’s tournament. Unless a defending champion is returning an absurd amount of talent (like Florida in the 2007 tournament or Duke in the 1992 tournament), they are unlikely to pull off the repeat. In fact, history shows they’re much more likely to have an early exit than to make a deep run. Wisconsin, on the other hand, was wildly under-seeded and likely ticked off about it. They were set out to show the committee that they were wrong, and did so emphatically by handling Virginia Tech with relative ease in Round 1, followed by the biggest upset of the tournament in Round 2 by knocking off the defending champs.

Protect the king! As I mentioned in my Bracket Guidelines last week, the early rounds don’t mean a thing if your champion gets knocked out early. It is vitally important to pick a viable champion; a safe champion. Villanova, despite what my formula proclaimed about their regular season successes, was not a safe pick. Their roster wasn’t nearly strong enough to justify a repeat championship, and their coach’s tournament history outside of last year is very underwhelming. Last year’s run was a historical anomaly for Jay Wright; this year was par for the course.

Aside from the wacky East region, the rest of my bracket turned out just fine, with 12 of my Sweet 16 advancing and 6 of the Elite 8 remaining. That one missing piece though is an absolute crater. I’ll be sure to make mention of the non-quantifiable factors next year prior to the start of the tournament.

I may post a tournament recap in a couple weeks if there is an interesting conclusion but otherwise will be shifting into off-season mode, which means a much lower frequency of posts. I do have a few off-season features in the works that aim to answer some misunderstood statistical claims:

Is it really that difficult to beat a team for a 3rd time in a season?

Just how significant is home-court advantage, and how much of it is attributable to officiating deference to the home team?

I’ll also update standings on my Best Dual Sports schools and shift data tables (such as the Best Dual Sports and college football win probabilities) to a Google Sheets format going forward. Follow me on Twitter for notifications on my latest posts.

Like this:

My bracket, along with explanations of upset picks and Final Four games:

Round 1

UNC-Wilmington over Virginia: Regular season champion with a strong record away from home as well as in close games against one of the slowest paced teams in the field. The pace will keep it close enough for UNCW to have a chance to eke out a win.

USC over SMU: The play-in game is often more beneficial to the participant than the awaiting team for the first round, as there has been a play-in game winner every year since the field expanded to 68 in 2011. I like USC more than Kansas State as this year’s version.

Wichita St over Dayton: Vegas doesn’t even consider this an upset. Horrible seeding by the committee gives Dayton a brutal round 1 draw.

Middle Tennessee over Minnesota: Again, Vegas doesn’t see this as an upset. This year’s version of MTSU is even better than the one that knocked off 2 seed Michigan State last year

Rhode Island over Creighton: Rhode Island is one of the hottest teams in the field coming in.

Vermont over Purdue: Vermont has to be considered the hottest team in the field coming in, as they haven’t lost a game since December.

Michigan St over Miami FL: 9 over 8 isn’t much of an upset, but it’s really hard to see an Izzo team getting bounced in round 1 two years in a row. They’ll find a way to get the W.

Round 2

Michigan over Louisville: This year’s greatest story, winning 4 games in 4 days after a plane crash. Their run continues just a little longer as they avenge their 2013 title game defeat against the Cardinals.

Sweet 16:

Michigan over Oregon: Oregon can only go so far without Chris Boucher. His loss will be felt in a big way in this match-up.

Elite 8:

Arizona over Gonzaga: Avenging an early-season loss, the Wildcats were identified in my ratings as one of the four strongest teams this season.

Kentucky over North Carolina: Another upset featuring a rematch, but this time the same team advances. North Carolina’s resume was a bit inflated due to fortunate scheduling in conference play, and this was validated in a disappointing ACC tournament showing. Meanwhile, Kentucky went out of their way to play everyone in the non-conference, and while they didn’t win all of them they are certainly battle-tested despite cruising through the SEC this year.

Final Four:

Villanova over Arizona: Last year’s champion is back with very strong team. It’ll be tough in a pseudo road game, but the extensive tournament experience will pay off on the biggest stage.

Kansas over Kentucky: Talent vs. Talent. There’s just a little bit more on the Kansas side this year.

Title game:

Villanova over Kansas: My ratings identify these as the two best teams this year, with Villanova receiving the edge as the top team. Will this be vindication for BoW after another bad score in the Bracket Matrix? We’ll find out in about 3 weeks.

I thought about writing a full preview of the bracket, complete with match-up breakdowns and identifying the most likely contenders. Upon researching however, I found that everything I planned to include is already out there for consumption; I would not be adding any value by piling on with yet another opinion. Instead, the goal of this preview is to provide a guide on how to set up your bracket to put it in position to win an office pool. Will this guarantee that your bracket will win? Absolutely not. The idea is to get out of your own way and focus on the important aspect of the bracket: identify teams which are most likely to advance. I have a few rules I like to keep in mind when filling out a bracket, and I only go against them when I have a really good reason for it.

First, set up your bracket with the 1 seeds advancing to the Sweet 16 and the 2,3, and 4 seeds advancing to round 2. Historically, these seeds have had at least an 80% success rate in these games, and there is a considerable drop-off from the 4 seed to 5 seed in round 1. If you have a good reason to go against a couple of these, go for it. Otherwise leave these as they are and move on.

Protect the king. Think of each round of the bracket like a group of chess pieces. The king is the most important; you must protect it at all costs. This is your eventual champion, and it is important to not voluntarily drop a potential champion in the first weekend. Historically, there is a 91% chance that the eventual champion is a 1,2,3 or 4 seed, which is why the first rule is to keep all of them at least one round. Similarly, think of all the latest rounds as the more valuable chess pieces and the 1-win teams as pawns. Upsets are fun to pick, but if you only have that team getting to the round of 32 at the expense of a team that could make a deep run it isn’t worth it.

A coach shouldn’t be picked to go more than 2 rounds further than their current best round. For example, if a coach has never taken a team to a Final Four, his current team should not be picked as a national champion. Similarly, if this is a coach’s first tournament appearance, his team should not be picked beyond the 2nd round (ignore play-in games). This is not a cover-all-scenarios rule; there certainly have been exceptions. But in general, it’s a good idea to keep a coach’s track record in tournaments in mind.

Be aware of recent injuries to key players. If a team has gone through most/all of the regular season with injuries, then this can be ignored as we have a good sense of what that team is already. A player who has been sidelined since early February or later should be factored in.

Superstar players can take over a game. Look at the list of Naismith semifinalists and all-conference 1st team players from the power conferences. Teams with multiple players on these lists are more likely to advance than teams with no players on these lists.

Veteran players with tournament experience. Teams with a lot of players who have played in tournament games will tend to perform more consistently to or even above their expectations. The first-timers are more likely to falter under the brighter lights.

High win percentage away from home. Teams that struggled on the road or at neutral sites during the season won’t all of a sudden figure it out at tournament time.

Capability to blow out teams. If a team struggled to put away bad teams during the season, they are ripe for an upset in the tournament. Look for upsets of teams who weren’t able to crush anybody during the regular season.

Strong record in close games. The tournament is full of them, so pick teams who tend to fare well in a tight match-up.

Metrics are important, but I’d tend to shy away from them unless they have a proven success rate over time. If you have something that you think is time-proof, test it out on the Algebracket over multiple years.

I’ll post my own bracket as soon as it is complete. Good luck out there!