Stuff

The Standard released their first Ipsos MORI poll of the campaign today. Topline figures with changes from MORI’s last pre-campaign poll are CON 49%(+6), LAB 26%(-4), LDEM 13%(nc), UKIP 4%(-2). Like other companies there is a obvious shift towards the Conservatives and a drop for UKIP, though MORI tended to show significantly lower UKIP support than other companies to begin with, meaning there wasn’t far to fall. It seems almost redundant now to reel off the list of the records broken, but for the record it’s the biggest Tory lead MORI have shown since 2008.

Theresa May’s lead on who would make the most capable Prime Minister is now 61% to Corbyn’s 23%, the highest MORI have recorded since they began asking the question in 1979 (Thatcher hit 48% against Foot, Blair 52% against Hague).

For methodology geeks, note that Ipsos MORI are the only company still doing their voting intention polls by telephone… and that it does not presently appear to be making much difference.

Panelbase also put out their first campaign poll today. Topline figures there are very much in line with other companies, with topline figures of CON 49%, LAB 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 5%. Tabs are here

Finally, there was bit of a social media fuss over graphic from Clive Lewis’s campaign earlier on this morning, which originally claimed to show an ICM constituency poll for Norwich South (since corrected). Alas, this was not the case: ICM have not done a Norwich South poll.

In fact it was based upon a poll of all Labour seats ICM did for a group called Represent Us, back in January. The figures on Lewis’s graphic are a projection of what the situation might be in Norwich South given the swing amongst Remain and Leave voters in ICM’s poll (though given the unusual politics of Norwich South, with the Greens narrowly ahead of the Lib Dems, I have doubts about whether that’s a useful approach in this specific seat). But really – don’t mistake it for a poll of Norwich South, it isn’t one. Time will tell whether we see any actual constituency polls at this election.

133 Responses to “New Ipsos MORI and Panelbase polls”

I’d be amazed if JC resigned without an anointed left-wing heir being nominated for election by the PLP. And the rules can’t be changed before the party conference, so that seems unlikely unless an awful lot of centre left MPs lose their seats,and Corbyn supporters don’t.
But i don’t see the likes of Chuka Umunna or Yvette Cooper leaving the labour Party either. So it’s hard to see anything other than another lengthy, messy stand-off.

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Perhaps the anti-Corbyn faction will be so desperate to get rid of him as soon as possible they will agree to compromise with the Cornbynistas and nominate a leftish successor for the leadership contest, e.g. Lisa Nandy; at which point Corbyn will withdraw from the contest.

Oh, I see. I misunderstood you, as I didn’t realise you were referring to a situation where those MPs stayed in the Labour party but nominated a different opposition leader.

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The thing is that regardless of whether Labour appoint another Corbynite or someone else, I can’t see much of a resurgence in the near future. Another leader wouldn’t make some of the really basic errors that Corbyn has, but equally, if there were someone on the backbenches with the sort of dazzling brilliance that I’ve heard some folks hope for, then they should already have taken advantage of the disarray among the PLP to build a following and establish themselves as a clear leader-in-waiting.

Instead what we get is the press and Labour members desperately latching onto any Labour MP who stands still long enough. First it was Dan Jarvis (who faded into anonymity), then it was Hilary Benn (whom I’ve met, and seems sincere in not wanting such a job) now it’s Keir Starmer (who’s done nothing to impress).

The most likely scenario is that the next leader will be competent but fairly anonymous and ineffectual, and at best keep the party ticking over until somebody better emerges. But the danger for Labour is that with a relatively small number of seats, their talent pool will be similarly restricted, and they continue to haemorrhage seats and support…

I really don’t think that, at least in domestic policy, the difference between Milliband and Corbyn is that big. I don’t think even the presentation matters (although the monotony of the same word-combinations in Corbyn’s speeches, interviews, whatever are a bit too much).

What does matter that Corbyn, in spite of the resources available, plainly refused to convert those vague intrinsic values to a coherent picture of the near- and longer-term Britain (or even England), let alone developing policies. He turned down the offer of the help of leftist academics (ok, very broad left) to actually do some research on the UK society, economy, and public services, and hence offer a solid platform for developing a discourse.

He is quite clearly not familiar with the actual policy steps of the government (as opposed to the generic ideological, umbrella-statements the government makes).

He doesn’t care what others, including the government, say. He has his notes, and he plays from that (hence the perception of being detached of reality). His performance in the entire Brexit stuff is a great evidence of it. The other one would be his ignorance of Labour’s official policies.

I really don’t care (and I don’t think the electorate cares as a primary factor) about his appearance, tone, whatever. If he was a reflective person, he could have built a team to compensate. But he didn’t.

Since Lisa Nandy co-chaired Owen Smith’s campaign team, I’m not sure how palatable she would be to the Corbynites these days.

But then, I’m not sure whether many of the Corbynite MPs are as extreme as their supporters, and to what extent they can influence them. My gut feeling is that the creation of Momentum was like opening Pandora’s Box, and now not even Corbyn himself can keep them in check.

If ’empty-chairing’ May is successful, it might reduce the Tory vote by 4% – 2% to each of Lab & LibDem, maybe saving 20 Labour seats.

However, it seems unlikely that after either of these would put Labour in a position, even in coalition, to hold power after the election. Too big a mountain to climb.

The downside could be disastrous. It is extremely difficult to change the major parties in a FPTP two-party system, but not impossible.

Labour overtook the Liberals in the 1920s, but do hot hold that position by god-given right. If the debate is LibDem vs Labour, and the LibDems gain 4% at the expense of Labour, then the LibDems could be in a position to overtake Labour in the 2022 election. Is saving 20 seats worth the risk of being relegated to third place in both Scotland *and* England?

@”. The only thing that remians unanswered is whether people on a 75K salary with a massive expenses entitlement, can find anything in life to behave in an even more childish way than they are already.’”

I don’t think thats the only thing which remains unanswered re the Labour Party after its currently forecast heavy defeat.

There is also-whether the people who voted Corbyn into the Leadership really do just want to go on playing at Socialism , rather than being in Government.

The answer to both questions will almost be the most interesting thing about the GE result.

IMPERIUM, the reason Labour MPs haven’t gone out and took Corbyn is he’s won the last 2 leadership contests, comfortably (helped by trots, momentum and even the odd Tory). The hope is once the defeat is big enough a lot of Labour members will come to the realisation that you need to be on the centre or right of labour to have a chance of winning an election.If any Labour politician came out now you’d have to seriously consider their leadership ability. Regarding Jarvis, he said straight away he wouldn’t consider any leadership challenge until his kids have grown up (his wife died of cancer).

Regarding Wales, one thing I keep hearing (entirely anecdotal, of course) is that Welsh Leave voters are annoyed that their devolved government (Labour) is virtually campaigning for Remain – they see it as a betrayal given that Wales voted Leave.

@Pete
I’m aware of that, but then I’m not saying that these people should be trying to overthrow Corbyn (as you point out, and as Owen Smith found out, it’s suicidal while the membership backs him to the hilt). However, given that there’s been an enormous leadership vacuum for quite some time now, it seems concerning that they have not been able to put together some sort of “shadow leadership” or failing that, at least some clear group that coordinates internal message discipline and subtly pushes the credentials of their potential leader. Or even just a charm offensive with the membership to try and recruit wavering/disillusioned Corbynites. There are all sorts of things that they could be doing beyond waiting for Corbyn to go away.

Look at the Tory situation, for example. Once Cameron resigned, two names immediately went to the top of the list – May and Johnson. Of course Johnson’s bid promptly fell apart like a clown car, but this is the sort of thing the more ambitious members of the PLP should be angling for. Or for a Labour example, look how David Miliband was the automatic choice for leader after Brown’s resignation (although obviously he then went and lost it in the actual campaign). There is a lot more to becoming a leader-in-waiting than attacking the previous leader – and that’s often the last thing you want to do.

Thanks for telling me about Jarvis – I didn’t know that about him. It must have passed me by somehow.

What I find most weird though is that it has been possible to elect as leader of the Labour Party someone who is completely against their long standing foreign policy, in terms of the deterrent.

The only way that would even vaguely make sense is if the leader then conducted a serious campaign to convince the country at large of the merits of his position. Even those who think that he is right cannot make that claim.

And, whether you agree or disagree with his views they clearly make him unelectable as PM – and the party with him.

It’s like signing a goalkeeper despite him saying: “I think it’s morally wrong to try and save penalties – and actually, I’m not really that bothered about competitive footy anyway.”

[ps How’s yer dog? Mine have lost interest in politics for some reason….]

The latest Welsh Political Barometer poll asked about local election voting intentions. The poll producd the figures below (with, in brackets, changes on an equivalent question run by YouGov before the 2012 Welsh local elections):

The Labour party ceased to have a raison d’etre decades ago. The working class of the 1900s-1970s no longer exists. Britain is a rich and highly-developed country, and, rightly or wrongly, its citizens are less workers and more consumers.

Anyway, the only way the Labour party is at all electable with a majority is to lurch to the right as it did under Blair, helped along by a Conservative party in disarray and millions of legacy voters who would vote for a monkey if it had a red rosette.

There is of course room for a left-ish / centre-left social democrat party in Britain, but I’m not sure if this Labour party is it. Momentum are pulling the strings at present, and this is doing irreparable damage to Labour in the minds of Middle England. The Liberals ruined their reputation enabling the coalition, so I wonder if a new party will form out of what remains of the centrist Labour party after this election. A lot of people remain unable to vote for any party in June and I wonder if this will be reflected in the turnout.

I agree.
I started by thinking that a low turnout might help Labour, but now I suspect that the Tory vote will turn out solidly, and it’s Labour supporters that are likely to stay away. The fact that labour are doing so terribly in Wales, and the Lib Dems making no progress there (from a very low base), makes me wonder if this is the pattern in the West Midlands too. Depressing times for the Centre Left!

I’d dispute though that Tony Blair ‘lurched to the right’. This was a government that gave us the minimum wage, revitalised the NHS, rebuilt schools, invigorated the Arts, relieved poverty and promoted international debt relief, brought peace to Northern Ireland, and until the Iraq war presided over a Britain more at ease with itself than at any time in my life. All people seem to remember now is Iraq, PPI and academies. And Peter Mandelson! It wasn’t the whole picture.

Imperium3 – “Regarding Wales, one thing I keep hearing (entirely anecdotal, of course) is that Welsh Leave voters are annoyed that their devolved government (Labour) is virtually campaigning for Remain – they see it as a betrayal given that Wales voted Leave.”

It might also be that they’ve cannily realized that to get attention you need to become a marginal and shock the political classes.

Suppose they do return a score of Tories – those new MPs will be lobbying Mrs May, eager to bring home some bacon to impress their new constituents so that they can get re-elected in 2022. Whereas what will voting Lab get them?

News about private polling, and especially leaks about private polling, always needs to be digested with huge pinches of salt, but the fact a number as low as 20 isn’t being dismissed as ludicrous is in itself very telling.

We are now only 8 days from a very large test of public opinion in the form the Local Elections. Unless all the opinion polls are miles out, this is going to be terrible night for Lab, and the media narrative could turn it into a tipping point for a large scale switch away from Lab to LD, WNV, & Others

The Titanic may have already hit the iceberg, but the Captain hasn’t noticed……

The only thing of much interest in this Poll is the figure for May v Corbyn, as to who would be best Prime Minister. And the outcome is even worse for Labour than the Party’s own position.

As the day approaches people focus much more on who they are electing as Prime Minister.

It’s inconceivable that anyone who hasn’t already made up their minds to vote Labour, will, after careful further consideration, consider Corbyn a better prospect for the job than Mrs May. This is a fact which is already reflected in the numbers showing Mrs May miles ahead, even, of where Foot was in relation to Margaret Thatcher.

I’ve been blogging for months that Corbyn is a far greater liability to Labour that Foot ever was. Foot was, at least able to hold on to most of the traditional Labour Vote, and although Mrs Thatcher had great appeal to people who voted for her, most of the rest hated her.

Corbyn however actively repels the electoral base that stayed with Foot. And Mrs May is nothing like as ‘Marmite’ a figure Mrs Thatcher ever was. She can retain every single Thatcher type voter whilst at the same time refraining from repelling most of the rest.

I’ve been blogging this for months but with the usual responses from Corbynites telling me that I must be Tory, don’t know what I’m talking about, and that all the people they meet, (presumably other Members of the Labour Party and people they meet on demos), are ‘enthused’ by Corbyn.