Sometimes you write a fantasy baseball overrated post and think, “Grey, you’re like Coolio but instead of Medusa braids, you got brains and such.” Other times, you think, “You’re a Foolio who can’t even think of something to go with brains. ‘And such?’ How about ‘dumb much?'” With this Elvis Andrus overrated post, I legit don’t know if I’m being smart or stupid. It feels smart, but maybe it’s a blindspot and I’m just being dumb. It’s definitely not reassuring that I don’t know if I’m being smart or stupid by calling Elvis Andrus overrated. Jerry Lee Lewis would definitely think it was smart, and might add in Elvis was also bloated. “That Memphis porker grabbed my spotlight with his peanut butter-stained fingers and loosey-goosey hips.” That was Jerry Lee Lewis at the Rock ‘n Roll Hall of Fame. By the by, Jerry Lee Lewis is alive, and only 82 years old. That is news to everyone. Never the hoo, I’ve never seen a career year that I couldn’t squash and Andrus’s previous year is no different. Anyway, why is Elvis Andrus overrated for 2018 fantasy baseball?

Confidence in baseball breeds confidence like a bunch of bunny rabbits on steroids. Do something that works and you’re like, “Yo, I can do no wrong,” then you attempt to change a tire for a family of four in distress and the jack falls, smashing the minivan down on your foot, breaking it in sixteen places. See, confidence applies to real life too, but real life/schmeal life, we’re talking fantasy. I.e., not apples/not applying. Andrus’s K-rate went up last year and his walk rate went down. Know why? Cause everything was working; he was changing that minivan tire. The percentage he swung at outside the zone went from 27% to 34% and his overall swing rate went from 43% to 47%. He wasn’t even trying to wait for his pitch last year, he was swinging and it was working. The problem with that is if it doesn’t work this year, the bottom falls out. He hit the 28th most ground balls last year between Markakis (woof!) and Kendrys. Kendrys can hit grounders, because when he does hit fly balls they’re hard. Andrus’s Hard Contact was 30.5%; same as DJ LeMahieu. To put previous example in perspective, Kendrys had a 38% Hard Contact. Distance on homers for Andrus was 92nd with 404 feet on average, which is neither here nor there, perhaps, but you can look at him and see he is not a home run hitter. I know, with a name like Elvis, he should leave the building at a higher rate. All of this is backed up by a career HR/FB% of 5.1%. If he hit homers at his career rate last year, he would’ve had 8 homers. That sounds silly awful, but guess how many homers he hit in 2016? 8 homers. In 2015, he hit 7 homers, and I’m not going further back, but you get the drift. If not, move a little to the right and breathe in. I just ate sushi, and that’s my Tokyo drift! Not only do I think there’s a chance here for Andrus to fall to a sub-10 homer guy, I think there’s a chance his batting average plummets too. Steamer is projecting him for 12/22. Um, cool, if you’re Jose Peraza with a sprained ankle and can’t steal bags for two months. The more I go into this Andrus hate, the more I think I’m smart for calling him overrated, which means I’m prolly very stupid. Damn, coin, you have two sides!

All options seem possible, as I love his bat but just don’t know what to expect after that surgery. Only keep 8 total contracts each year so need to maximise value and avoid risk. That said upside is high, take the middle ground of 2yrs($6)?

“Andujar camly pulled a line drive to left field for a single. The ball sizzled off his bat at 112.1 mph, according to Statcast™, with a 12-degree launch angle.

That is top-tier contact. Major League batters combined to hit a line drive or fly ball at 112 mph or harder only 333 times all of last season, and those rockets produced a .922 batting average and 237 extra-base hits.”

Saw this article from last night talking up andujar. 2 things… first I feel like andujar is Ozuna light. If you look back at Ozona’s minor league stats they look really similar to andujar, just that miguel has slightly less power.

Second lets talk Aaron Judge! You see that stat? On batted balls with at least a hundred twelve mile per hour exit velo the batting average (line drives or fly balls) batters hit .922!
Thats why judge can strike out 30% and still hit .280. Becasue his average exit velo is like 105 mph and he holds the record with 121 mph off the bat.

Heres more from a fangraphs article by Jeff Sullivan.

“Overall, last season, Judge posted a .430 wOBA. He did that while striking out almost 31% of the time. There’s concern that Judge might strike out more often. I calculated where Judge would’ve wound up, keeping everything the same but bumping his strikeout rate up to 40%. At 40% strikeouts, 2017 Aaron Judge would’ve still finished with a wOBA of .374, essentially matching the season put up by Edwin Encarnacion.”

@Willy Mo: And on the 8th episode of “Judge and the Willy Mo”, the research team will exhume transcripts from the casket of George Steinbrenner. Will there be evidence that Judge was bio-engineered in the labs beneath Yankee Stadium? Stay tuned tomorrow. Dun dun dunnnnn

@Willy Mo: He’s intriguing. It’s a small sample size. One season, where he had incredible highs and the lowest of lows. He’s intriguing and I don’t hate him. I’m just not drafting him in the second round is all.

@Old School Brother: far better… so a guy like springer is “far better” or that much more safe? Im not saying take judge over trout. But around pick 20 hes a value if anything. Not as risky as he seems.

@Cram It: heres the thing. Ranking judge 20th or so overall is already baking in a good amount of regression as he was a top three hitter last year. If you’re to call him a schmohawk as the 20th ranked player well now you’re basically saying you think he’s going to fall what outside the top 40? What does it take for the 20th ranked player to be a schmohawk? Finish outside the top 35 overall? 50?

So the fangraphs article is saying that even in a scenario where judge struck out 40% of the time, way worse than last year like a 25% increase in k’s he’s still about as valuable a hitter as Edwin Encarnacion. Everyone is not putting enough emphasis on what made him a top 3 player last year, 115 mph baseballs off his bat. Thats what will stem his regression.

Let Us Now Praise Famous Death Dwarvessays:
March 12, 2018 at 12:50 am (link)

@Willy Mo: you should just copy/paste this every day if you aren’t already since it’s the same thing

“heres the thing. Ranking judge 20th or so overall is already baking in a good amount of regression as he was a top three hitter last year. If you’re to call him a schmohawk as the 20th ranked player well now you’re basically saying you think he’s going to fall what outside the top 40?”

We’re not comparing strikeout rates… what the stat was saying was that even if Aaron judge struck out way more than he did last year 25% more in fact he still would have been about as valuable a hitter as Edwin was last year. Yes clearly that would be a disappointing season for judge but my point is it’s unlikely he regresses that much and even if he does he’s still Edwin Encarnacion so how risky is he really?
Please dont reply to this knoche, you are hurting my head

@Old School Brother: but paying a 20th overall price tag for a downside of 40 overall tyoe player and huge potential upside isnt worth it at age 25?? I mean is anyone thinking rationally here or they just want to hate on Judge and agree with grey?

@Justin: yeah i mean the article can almost translate to a worst case scenario for judge and hes about the 40th best player… but why are we assuming the absolute worst case?
Like I said many times we’re ignoring his raw power illuminated by statcast which will stem his regression.

Good post. Also read the Zimmerman article. I’m neutral on Judge. The two things I’d put in the concern column are the shoulder surgery and the adjustments. I know it’s being down played as minor but it’s delaying his spring and the are instances of lingering effects on hitters who’ve had shoulder work done.

The other thing is that pitcher adjustments don’t only lead to increased strike outs, they also can lead to decreased quality of contact as pitchers try a different approach in location and pitch mix.

My thing on Judge is that there’s a higher variance in the range of outcomes than I’d want in the early part of the draft. I like a little more track record. But no doubt you could crush it with him in the second round.

I went thru using Rudy’s ‘cost per snake draft picks’ form from a few years ago. I calculated the allocation for the first 22 rounds of the current NFBC to be 61.1% on Hitting, 27.8% on SP and 11.0% on RP. Not exactly the 66/25/9 that I was suspecting.

@Squat Cobblers: And there were 41! RPs thru 22 rounds as well. I was stunned. I mean, it would be nice to backup my closers…but not at the cost of…..you know what..Nevermind. I just saw the names taken in rounds 19-22, and they are awful (K Calhoun, Reddick, J Reyes, Asdrubal, D Peralta, J Bradley, Gyorko, LoMo, Pillar.)

I guess I should have taken a reliever. I took C Vasquez, Ryu, Minor and Senzel.

@Swick: dynasty I’d want the 24 year old Odor (even without the other piece) . . . Odor + either of those guys would definitely work for me. Dynasty I’d rather have the guy with less injury history (Bauer).

I had Andrus last year, and was trying to trade him. Glad I didn’t find a taker, because he was great.

If I have him again this year, I’ll be trying to trade him. Why? Because I don’t think all of a sudden he’s a home run hitter, and I trust him as much as a red headed old lady. Basically, Elvis’ carpet doesn’t match the curtains.

12 team, 5×5 keeper league. Easiest way to describe our system is that each player retains his draft round (or minor leaguer/free agent value) and then it accelerates in subsequent years. Right now, my keepers are as follows:

The article reinforces and does a good job of quantifying what most of the hardcore statheads / fantasy fans know. However, taking the advanced stats from a player’s single season, which currently appears to be an outlier based on everything which has occurred historically and projecting it forward to predict performance, is a tenuous construct.

It’s unlikely that everything breaks perfectly for Judge again in 2018. In the history of low contact rate hitters, there are literally dozens of precedents to suggest regression. Judge’s exit velocity certainly gives him a chance to avoid as substantial a regression but it’s still highly probable.

The ‘schmohawk’ article suggested to me that the challenge re: Judge is that he has more downside than your average top player and that there are comparable options ranked / drafted much lower or at a fraction of the price (i.e., the risk is fully priced in). A standard regression ranks Judge right round 20th best fantasy player but that is probably lower than most fantasy players will rank him. Objectively, that is a pretty strong outcome for a guy with virtually no track record and a single unique season under his belt.

If one believes that last year is rationally repeatable (I for one do not) then Judge is easily a top-10 player. If one believes that he regresses normally then he is a borderline top-20 player mainly due to relatively low average and decreased counting stats; if one believes that he regresses significantly (which is a historical norm for low contact guys – hence high year to year variability in performance) then he is more like a top-125 guy due to the power.

The real question is what are willing to pay up for? Peak performance based on a limited sample set, standard regression or significant regression. Most of the statistically inclined fantasy players I think would pay for standard regression if Judge can be acquired for this price but the challenge is that he is being drafted / acquired based on somewhere between peak value / standard regression which suggests that he carries an asymmetric risk profile (i.e., more downside than upside) based on his draft position / cost.

While I really like the kid and have a soft spot for baseball giants I doubt he ends up on any of my fantasy teams mainly because I won’t be paying for last year’s performance and believe that he includes a performance volatility factor (though one admittedly mitigated by his exit velocity) that is well in excess of most top players and I want predictability from my top picks combined with upside from my later / cheaper picks.

@deanobobeano: if you were paying for last years performance you would have to take him like 5th overall, but you dont have to do that. I think i made myself clear above about how his adp makes him appealing to me and why but ill repeat it…

EVEN IF JUDGE STRIKES OUT 25% MORE THIS YEAR HES STILL AS VALAUBLE A HITTER AS EDWIN ENCARNACION, AND JUDGE ALSO GETS A HANDFUL OF STEALS!

@Willy Mo: when i say 25% more strikeouts its roughly a 25% increase, 9 percentage points higher. (last year he struck out 31% and the article referenced even if he struck out 40% here is the outcome would be).

@deanobobeano: when you say judges exit velocity gives him a chance to avoid regression that’s pretty much my whole argument is that nobody is giving enough clout to what exit velocity can do for you. look at the stat I posted above that says batted balls over 112 mph resulted in a huge batting avg. Hes the exit velo king by a good margin. Like 8 of the 10 hardest hit balls ever recorded are judges hits

@Grey: this really is a hate on judge dick sucking fest. So nobody is intrigued by the fangraphs article that says even if judges k’s last season were 40% instead of 31% he still woulda been about as valuable a hitter as edwin?

You’re really focused on this 40% and he’s still Edwin, huh? “I calculated where Judge would’ve wound up, keeping everything the same…” What’s the same? What if at a 40% rate things are not the same? “Judge is Edwin.” Okay, Edwin’s not drafted as a top 40 player. “Judge is Giancarlo!” Okay, Giancarlo hit 34 HRs his sophomore year.

@Grey: judge aint no schmohawk at 20 overall where hes being drafted. hes already proven how his power surges can carry him. Sure there will be down moments but yes i think its intriguing that he could stike out that often and still be that valuable. I get its a hypothetical

@Willy Mo: Let’s assume he strikes out at 40%, If his BABIP goes back to .317 he loses 22 base hits. That makes him a .240 hitter. If he does strike out more that number goes south, say maybe .225 The home runs are intriguing and yes he could be top 5 player, but the risk isn’t worth it for me in round 2.

@Willy Mo: He hit like .178 his first stretch in the majors and flirted with the mendoza line in the second half last year, if he hits there he isn’t going to be a top 40 player regardless of his exit velocity, thus the inherent risk

@Grey: @<a href="#[email protected]Grey: Haha thanks. He’ll be out at a party and mistake someone giving him the signs to steal second (or third!) base, but by “base” I mean the way teenagers use it because he’s 14 years old.

I think the offense is sexy as all get out (Benintendi is my 4th best offensive player in a 15 teamer!) and the pitching is a bit wonky. Bought Andrew Miller to solidify the ratios.If I can get two of Reyes, Tr. Williams, Ryu, and Rodon to work out I could be really good I think.

@NatsFan: No problem, I agree with your assessment, I love the hitting, maybe light on speed, depends how much Taylor is actually in your lineup (though I do like him)…. Pitching is risky, agreed, though I like the guys you have…

What’s most frustrating about Shmohawks, is watching them propel a team, that more than likely auto drafted said player, into contention for an entire year. Like, come on “career year” man, you’re killing me.

Worked through another WAR Room draft last night. Drafted from the 4th slot and took the man with the ingown toenail, Bryce Harper. Drafted against Fantrax ADP and was much more lenient about taking players even if the draft slot was the exact same as their ADP.

The saves look terrible, but if I take a Rodney or Bedrosian as a Bench player( ADP 250+) they look a good bit better, but I think I like Reed more than Rodney? Is that crazy? Hoping Robertson gets traded before the deadline, is that a bad hold with his counting stats?

I don’t mind Reed as a cheap late flyer, but you are missing saves, which is a concern… Rest of the team looks solid, love the hitting, hopefully Desmond and Polanco bounce back… Pitching is solid (aside from closers)

You rat bastard! I misread the picks and thought you took Dozier…hence my batting average comment. Great pick for you. Could be a top 20 player.

I took Big Papi. As as modicum of revenge for your sniping I’m going to talk about Charlie Blackmon some more. Last year he hit 24 of his 37 home runs with the bases empty. Lest you say “ok he can’t hit with men on” his RISP numbers were .700 SLG and 1.162 OPS. Here’s a bold prediction for you: Blackmon leads the NL in RBIs this season.

Oh! Was wondering why so down on only two picks about AVG… I saw your pick, totally fine, rather unassuming pick, that only fails if something unforeseen happens which you can’t, uh, foresee so you can’t be held responsible… Blackmon went from a top runs year of the last 25 years to now leading the league in RBIs, that would be a hell of a two-year spread…

One of the first times you and I ever went back and forth on a player it was Jose Bautista. It was the year after he went bananas and you were schmohawking him left and right. I said the skills were real. You can throw out everything that happened before because we’re looking at a different player. That’s Charlie Blackmon. He’s a legit middle of the order bat who has changed his approach to add more power. Nothing you can point to says the 33 homers a year he’s averaged the last two years are flukey. He’s in the greatest park, he’ll have OBP machine Lemahieu ahead of him and Nolan behind him. If you just subtracted the name Blackmon and called him player X, would it be so hard to believe?

Here’s the one thing that worries me a bit. If he doesn’t take to the middle of the order psychologically. But I’m not going to play that game with him. You could say the same thing about Stanton maybe freaking out playing on the big stage in NYC. A suckers game. But is Blackmon is just basically the guy he’s been the last two years, even with reasonable regression, he’s going to drive in a shit ton of runs.

I hear ya, I didn’t write a schmohawk post about him bc I don’t feel that strongly he won’t put up power numbers again, but if I’m being real, I’m not drafting him for it…I’m drafting him for 25/15 vs. 30+/15… Not really huge difference there which another reason I didn’t schmohawk him…I don’t see the huge downside… His upside I’m seeing is below yours is all…

I got a 12 team espn draft sunday. I drew the 2nd pick and it’s a 5×5 league with obp rather than avg. Looking at Rudy’s rankings I should take Stanton. Is that the play or would you go with somebody with a traditionally higher obp like Harper or someone else?

@crock: Keep in mind that Carlos Santana and Joey Gallo get a big bump here, as I’m sure you know already.

In Rudy’s Ranks it looks like Stanton is a fantastic #2 pick. I’d do it if I were you. From your list there, Altuve is the only one in this format that loses enough value for me to not consider him. At least he does in mine, which is using OBP and SLG in place of AVG. Maybe not having a SLG category he loses less value, I didn’t check that for you. In fact maybe that’s why Giancarlo’s value that I’m looking at right now is causing my head to cave in.

But yea… my wife says nice things about me too (I think?). So I thought you wouldn’t hate a second opinion here from someone other than Giancarlo’s hubby himself.

@knucks:
Thanks for the second opinion. I find myself wanting to take someone other than Stanton but I think that’s because I own him in a dynasty and keeping him in another league. But I think he’s the right pick. If not him Harper.

Just started the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational drafts, I have pick 11 in my league. I’ve decided since the draft started that pick 11 is the worst pick in this year’s draft, especially in a 15 teamer. I’m fine with any of my top 10 in the first round, but after that, shizz gets dicey. I just can’t get behind Kris Bryant in the first round, ditto for Machado and Correa and it’s too early for Lindor/Freeman. Ended up holding my nose and drafting Scherzer. Don’t love it, but really don’t like this spot. Stanton went right before me and Turner lasted til pick 8. Such a tease.

I know! I cried a little as he kept falling…ugh. Yea, Bryant was the only debatable choice for me vs. Scherzer or Sale. I had issues with Bryant last year too and ended up with him nowhere, which wasn’t awful. That was also when he was going top 5 though, maybe at 11 isn’t so bad. Targeting Freeman in the 2nd, which is kinda the same player, with an even higher floor I think. At least I don’t need to worry about pitching until like round 8 though.

Could be leftover hate from last year, which was contact% related and K% related. Looking at his numbers deeper from last year though, he did seem to straighten that out some. Also not in love with his craptastic SB%. At least last year I felt like if his Ks caught up to him he’d hit like .250. Maybe I should reconsider him in that position this year. First draft of the year, so still getting the draft feelers out there. Don’t think Scherzer will kill me, I have a plan and that helps.

That’s a tough slot. It’s a different draft when you go pitching early. Should be fun to navigate.

I really like Machado and would have considered JDM for you there over Scherzer. One of the things though with Machado is the SS eligible thing is a little tricky in handling the first month light one MI and long one CI. And there’s a slight risk he shifts back to 3rd for some reason.

@Cram It: You guys know if your league will speed up after 30 rounds? Was just reading about that on the NFBC message boards (which aren’t very helpful for info if you ask me really). Wish they did that late round speed up for the NFBC I did this year though. I def was not planning to ever do another one of those. But might consider joining one for 2019 if the late rounds are going to have the shorter time frame.

@knucks: No such luck. We’re in Round 38 and the nitz picking currently has 35 minutes left on his clock. What I just don’t understand is that if you know you’ll be out for the next 4 hours or more, why don’t you simply do “Auto, one pick”…. If there are 10 drafters picking before your turn, put your 11 best names in order that you like ’em…and you’ll get your top guy available. Not rocket science.

If you had a choice of votto, rendon, bregman, degrom, who would you take in a keeper draft? Can keep player for minimum 2 years. I already own 1b, ss, 3b but need an IF and a dh. Votto is getting older but he is still productive. Thanks

Hey Grey, pulled of a trade this morning in our keeper league (Freeman, 2nd, 3rd, 10th round picks for Corey Seager and Verlander, 1st, 11th, 13th round picks). Verlander was basically a dump because We only keep 8 and I couldn’t get a better offer. Our pool discounts old guys and puts a major emphasis on the younger players.

I was wondering if you think I should attack pitching with these keepers once the draft starts or just take the best talent available? thanks!

@Grey: Awesome, Thanks! My league thinks I gave up way too much in that deal. I’ve usually ended up on the right side of things in most trades. Think I gave up too much? Verlander wasn’t being kept and was a dump. I know you’re big on Freeman and he seems to have just as much long term value anyway (despite 4 yr age difference)

@Grey: weekly roto with a two keeper max league. im keeping benintendi and either story or moncada. i drew the 6 pick last night. who do you like best to compliment them? giancarlo, betts or goldschmidt? guessing i will be able to get rizzo or bellinger in round 2.

I’ve been offered barretto, alford, and yuli gurriel for my merrifield and healy. I’ve been trying to get rid of healy anyway so i don’t care about him. I like merrifield for speed but i’m not expecting him to put up the same numbers he did last year. that being said it’s a downgrade from him to any of franco/nick williams/brantley (cause he’s never healthy). But the prospect value i’m getting is making me consider the deal . What do you think?

Yea, this isn’t NFBC, this is just a 15 teamer on FanTrax with a ton of industry folks. I’m in a league with Steve Gardner which is pretty dope. Wouldn’t have a chance to play with someone like that (excluding Grey and Rudy of course) otherwise. A little bit of a bigger stage, which is cool. The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational it’s called. Hopefully they keep doing it, the only req is you have some fantasy writing experience. Cram, we could always use a good DFS writer :)

@MattTruss: Scherzer/Freeman is a nice start. Benintendi, Marte, or Dozier would be solid if they make it to your next pick. Carrasco and Jansen are interesting options too if you don’t want to deal with the pitching run that’ll probably be coming up soon.

@MattTruss: Saw that Dozier went. Yeah, Beni or Marte would fit well. I just mentioned the pitching options since I think the hitting in the 50-120 pick range is much stronger than the pitching. Doubling up on aces or grabbing a four cat asset like Jansen (even in limited reliever innings) would set you up well on that side and let others reach for the remaining pitching in that area. Depends on your viewpoint though.

I’m in an AL only roto keeper league (25 MLB players, up to 5 MILB players). Can keep promoted minor leaguers 3 years after on opening day MLB roster. Trying to decide between Bo Bichette (high floor, moderately high ceiling) and Luis Robert (risky floor, potentially very high ceiling). Who would you take?

@grey Need your help. I’m in an empire league 12 team 30 player rosters and we can keep all 30…I have buxton and am being offered Luis Robert and gore and a top pick next year-would you take that or keep buxton? Also, the guy is proposing he gives devers, Robert, gore, and a top pick next year for Jose Ramirez and buxton…would you take either of those deals or leave them both? Thanks sir

Andrus also loses too much of his value if they move him down in the lineup. His runs increased in 2017 mainly because of moving up in the lineup, but the Rangers have enough good hitters that he’s not guaranteed to stay in one of the first three lineup positions.

@Grey (or Rudy): in the online war room, is there a way to draft players for other teams (or remove players from the available players but not draft them to your team) as a means of keeping track of the available player pool?