Tropical Storm RAFAEL

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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
RAFAEL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
CENTER EMBEDDED IN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO HINT OF AN EYE IN EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELITE IMAGERY...BUT EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED A RAGGED
BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RAFAEL IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE PLANE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 AND 75 KT
DURING PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WITH MAXIMUM
CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 55-57 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT
RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70
KT WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...RAFAEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATER AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. THE STORM SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD VERY SOON AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THIS
TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH...RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD
IN A FEW DAYS IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 23.0N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 24.5N 65.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 27.4N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 30.9N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 35.4N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 43.5N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 47.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z 47.0N 20.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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