This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different time frames; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments, just click on "comments" and write away.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Two Vs make a W, but ex-Merrill economist Dave Rosenberg thinks the Recovery will be a series of w's, and a V Recovery has about a zero chance due to Deflation at the end of a 25-year Credit cycle. He says there are 3 components of Inflation: Wages, Credit and Rents, all of which are headed downward.Recently I've been following the VIX and its 1- and 5-month futures to see if there is a predictive correlation; still too early,but last week the 1-month hit a new % low (lower VIX usually means a calmer (UP market).Starting this week I shall add it to the Indicators and let readers be the judge.
Breadth is very strong (Advance/ Decline and New Highs), but in a rather overbought zone - Bullish % at 84, McClellan Summation in the +1200s.

Next week's blog will be abbreviated and early, due to a Contrarian vacation after the crowds have left the California seashores.
Here are the numbers from last week:

MktSentiment

9/11/2009

Prev. Week

5Yr.HI

LOW

DJIA

9605

9441

14093

6626

Nasdaq

2080

2018

2810

1114

S&P500

1042

1016

1561

683

CBOE Eq.

put/call

60

64

96-10/08

46-1/03

VIX

24.1

25.3

90

8.8

McClellan Osc

35

-11

108

-100

McClelSum

1228

1114

1568

-1514

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel

22.21

Bull

48.3

50.6

63

22.21

Bear

23.6

24.1

54.4

16

AAII-Bull/Bear

37.3/44.0

38.0/38.0

n/a

Nova/Ursa

MutualFunds

0.87

1.04

2.2

0.56

Baltic Dry Index

2468

2415

11700

663

Bullish%-

84

81

88

2

*Insider corporate

sellers

n/a

108:1

2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows

-.5B

-1.1B

ETF Inflows

.4B

-3.7B

VIX Volatility

-12

12

-22

VIX 1-month future

-18

2

-18

VIX 5-month future

-3

8

-7

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