Will be interesting to watch. DL has some good sales teams on the ground in CR, GUA and BZE now.MSP-SJO should be able to work.

LAX-BZE: CA is Belize's number one source of tourists, and SoCal has the largest ethnic population of Belizeans outside of Belize. If they can get the VFR away from their AAdvantage and United they should do well. For sure, at least UA will respond (fare wise) as LAX feed was a huge component of their IAH-BZE flights.

Cool to see some more LatAm expansion. If DL can make MSP-LIR work, I don't see why MSP-SJO wouldn't work. Costa Rica is a hot vacation destination these days!

Quoting miaami (Reply 5):I noticed that they are also starting CMH-MCO this winter too.

They are starting a LOT of weekend only routes from MCO. Even in the summer, it looks like they are operating Saturday flights to OMA, MKE, IND, GRR, CMH, RIC, BDL, and CUN, in addition to their daily flights to LAX, LAS, SLC, MSP, DTW, CVG, MEM, ATL, RDU, LGA, JFK, and BOS. In the May editions of Sky magazine, they were also showing routes to AUS, MCI, MSY, SDF, BHM, PIT, and HPN. We'll have to see if those surface in the winter.

Quoting FSDan (Reply 10):They are starting a LOT of weekend only routes from MCO. Even in the summer, it looks like they are operating Saturday flights to OMA, MKE, IND, GRR, CMH, RIC, BDL, and CUN, in addition to their daily flights to LAX, LAS, SLC, MSP, DTW, CVG, MEM, ATL, RDU, LGA, JFK, and BOS. In the May editions of Sky magazine, they were also showing routes to AUS, MCI, MSY, SDF, BHM, PIT, and HPN. We'll have to see if those surface in the winter.

Looks like our buddy Enlira will be busy in the OAG thread this weekend.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 8):LAX-BZE: CA is Belize's number one source of tourists, and SoCal has the largest ethnic population of Belizeans outside of Belize. If they can get the VFR away from their AAdvantage and United they should do well. For sure, at least UA will respond (fare wise) as LAX feed was a huge component of their IAH-BZE flights.

Why don't you prove this with actual data instead of making up number? There is no data to support this theory. Based on air traffic, it is very clear neither statement is true.

MSP-SJO should do fine. Due to perception of lawlessness, many Minnesotans have shifted their winter vacations from the traditional Mexico destinations to safe and politically stable Costa Rica. I have a friend that goes to Costa Rica 3-4x a year. It should be able to suppoer a 1x weekly flight.

Perhaps limited weekly frequencies would be enough to attend that market.
For example, NWMSP-LIR 1x weekly operated seasonally in Costa Rica prior to 2010. Furthermore, UAIAD-SJO and UAORD-SJO just started in April allowing no more than one weekly flight by now.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 13):Why don't you prove this with actual data instead of making up number? There is no data to support this theory. Based on air traffic, it is very clear neither statement is true.

Look, MAH....sometime ago you said DL would never expand out of LAX to C. America. Then you were proven wrong with LAX-SJO. Then when I suggested LAX-BZE was coming, You said would never happen. It now is.
Please be humble enough to accept when you were wrong.

And you guys will be wrong again when DL proves that it can work.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 13):Why don't you prove this with actual data instead of making up number? There is no data to support this theory. Based on air traffic, it is very clear neither statement is true.

Registered Belizeans Living in USA: State: CA: 2010 17,920 Source: Gov't of Belize.
That is what the GOB has as lawfully residing Belizeans living in SoCal. They count it every 10 years at Census time.

IF anybody wants the full data dump, PM your email and I would be happy to share with you the audited data.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 15):It is a big Belizean community and a big leisure market, but a big Belizean market is still a handful of people per day.

DL pulled the plug on the whole LAX experiment. S FLA market is being driven by business traffic as well as transfers to Europe and Caribbean.

Please don't forget alot of the SAL-BZE traffic was LAX transfer traffic too....LAX-BZE was flowing over SAL, IAH, DFW and to a lesser extent CLT, MIA and ATL. Will be interesting to watch DL try to consolidate it now.

But DL are already running ads on "Belize Radio" in SoCal....so clearly this time they have a plan.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 18):Look, MAH....sometime ago you said DL would never expand out of LAX to C. America. Then you were proven wrong with LAX-SJO. Then when I suggested LAX-BZE was coming, You said would never happen. It now is.
Please be humble enough to accept when you were wrong.

I found an interesting point here.
The non-stop TA/LR [SJO-LAX] 4x weekly was just suspended in May 2013. Authorities of the airline stated that all the routes running unprofitable out of SJO were suspended and it clearly demonstrated how TA/LR [SJO-LAX] was struggling.
With that being said, if DLLAX-BZE would happen, it may operate with very limited frequencies from the very beginning.
There are many routes between the USA and Central America following this pattern: AADFW-PTY, US PHL-SJO seasonally, UAORD-SJO, UAIAD-SJO, UAEWR-GUA, UAEWR-SAL, SYMSP-LIR seasonally, UAEWR-BZE and so forth.
With all due respect, I found exaggerated the argument: "GUA-JFK and LAX-BZE are heavy VFR markets"

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 18):Look, MAH....sometime ago you said DL would never expand out of LAX to C. America. Then you were proven wrong with LAX-SJO. Then when I suggested LAX-BZE was coming, You said would never happen. It now is

In fairness if anyone was a betting person the viability of SJO also out of LAX for DL is a big question mark, especially since they are dumping large 757 capacity on the route.

The odds are the route will commence in December, and then quietly fade away as before.

I think it says much that power house TACA has not been able to make SJO-LAX work consistently all these many decades.

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 23):With all due respect, I found exaggerated the argument: "GUA-JFK and LAX-BZE are heavy VFR markets"

I'd term LAX-BZE a "small niche market". Matter of fact there are a 100 larger international markets from LAX, majority which do not have their own nonstops.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 26):
I'd term LAX-BZE a "small niche market". Matter of fact there are a 100 larger international markets from LAX, majority which do not have their own nonstops.

And yet they are starting it. Remember it is always not about the potential LFs or market size, it is about yields.
There are lots of huge markets with horrible yields. And lots of tiny markets with spectacular yields.

And one forgets cargo. Belize ships lots of tropical live fish...the vast majority goes to a wholesaler in Los Angeles (yes, the same one on the show "tanked")...that is very time sensitive, high yielding cargo.

From what I know about these shipments.....what they pay alone per flight can almost cover the expenses of LAX-BZE on DL if they choose to start shipping on that flight.

Lots and lots of potential. We will see if it matures.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 26):In fairness if anyone was a betting person the viability of SJO also out of LAX for DL is a big question mark, especially since they are dumping large 757 capacity on the route.

AV dumping SJO-LAX really helps the business case. The natural markets (vs promoted markets) for CR tourism are more west coast oriented. I would say that may drop it to a 738 in due course, but it should do fine.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 26):In fairness if anyone was a betting person the viability of SJO also out of LAX for DL is a big question mark, especially since they are dumping large 757 capacity on the route.

The odds are the route will commence in December, and then quietly fade away as before.

Delta Air Lines moved forward their intended plans.DLLAX-SJO 7x weekly with 757 is due to start on July 01st.

.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 26):I think it says much that power house TACA has not been able to make SJO-LAX work consistently all these many decades.

TA/LR [SJO-LAX] 4x weekly as non-stop always operated simultaneously with TA/LR [SJO-GUA-LAX] 7x weekly which is still in service.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 18):Look, MAH....sometime ago you said DL would never expand out of LAX to C. America. Then you were proven wrong with LAX-SJO. Then when I suggested LAX-BZE was coming, You said would never happen. It now is.

Don't make things up. I said they aren't viable markets and DL (or AA or UA for that matter) wouldn't make it work. I stand by my statement. I did say DL would never start LAXPTY.

LAXSJO might last with TACA exiting. I give LAXBZE one or two seasons. The maker has actually shrunk quite a bit and is smaller today than it was in 2006. It's one of the fastest shrinking U.S.-Central America markets.

Passports are based on birthplace, not where one lives, so that doesn't support your assertion.

Furthers, does this exclude forced arrivals on cruise ships who aren't as much choosing to visit Belize but rather so it because their boat just happens to stop there? Needless to say, that's going to create a lot of California-origin passports.

Passports are based on birthplace, not where one lives, so that doesn't support your assertion.

Conversely, There are millions in California that weren't actually born there. I'm sure a number of those visit Belize. They wouldn't be counted in the number quoted above. Given that, the number above could actually be quite a bit higher.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 29):Passports are based on birthplace, not where one lives, so that doesn't support your assertion.

Is that a serious statement? Now I fear your are making stuff up (as you put it). You have no idea what you are talking about. Lots of Belizeans born in Belize, immigrated to the US and now have US passports (my brother has US, Belize and UK passports) But they retain dual nationality (yes, it is legal to do that now thanks to the Israeli lobby in congress) and when they come home they usually travel inbound to BZE on BZE passports and return on the US. Hell, I alternate passports when I travel.

When they fill out their arrival form they are counted as Belizeans, not tourists, and accounted for differently in the tourism count because they are not tourist. Logical right?

You can look at all the hard data you want....but that is jsut as small portion of any overall business case for a route.

And I am not even counting the Belizeans travelling via CUN. Those are counted in land arrivals.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 29):Furthers, does this exclude forced arrivals on cruise ships who aren't as much choosing to visit Belize but rather so it because their boat just happens to stop there? Needless to say, that's going to create a lot of California-origin passports.

Nope.....cruise arrivals are counted differently. The figures I gave you were AIR ARRIVALS ATBZE ONLY.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 32):Is that a serious statement? Now I fear your are making stuff up (as you put it).

Yes, that's a serious statement. A U.S. passport has your birthplace listed on it, not where you live. If one lives in California, and was born in Florida, their passport says Florida. A Belizian-born U.S. citizen living in California will have Belize on their passport; not a single mention of California.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 32):Wrong again... it was up YoY for 2012 and so the first 4 months of 2013 show an increase again.

The market has shrunk from ~45 PDEW in 2002 to ~30 PDEW today. That's a fact. It's a shrinking market; and considering that 2002 numbers were already depressed because it was a terrible year for international travel in the U.S., e actual shrinkage of the LA-Belize market is probably a whole lot worse.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 32):[Careful. Am I goign to have to prove you wrong again within 12 months?

But isnt the fact that DL is adding a nonstop flight from LAX to Belize going to guarantee that the market contraction reverses itself and the market grows. There will be opportunities for tourists from LAX who could never find low fares on AA/UA connections to take advantage of the nonstop flight, and dont forget DL will probably have great connections from SEA and SFO.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 35):Yes, that's a serious statement. A U.S. passport has your birthplace listed on it, not where you live. If one lives in California, and was born in Florida, their passport says Florida. A Belizian-born U.S. citizen living in California will have Belize on their passport; not a single mention of California.

You are what you travel on. When I travel on my UK passport I am counted as a british citizen entering the USA. When a Belizean american enters Belize on their birthright Belize passport instead of their US passport, they are counted as a Belizean. When that same Belizean then enters the USA on the American Passport they are counted as a resident at the port of entry.

It is a whole lot more complicated than you realize and the PDEW data gives you an inkling but it is imperfect.

You also have to calculate market stimulation programs

At $1208 R/T it is clearly not bottom of the barrel traffic (compare that with $798 on SJO-LAX)

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 34):Is that really a good sign given their track record? Even in *that* specific market alone?

No risk. no reward.

If you don't want to take a risk (albeit a calculated one), you might as well get out of the business. Their track record is indicated in their profits.

Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 14):MSP-SJO should do fine. Due to perception of lawlessness, many Minnesotans have shifted their winter vacations from the traditional Mexico destinations to safe and politically stable Costa Rica. I have a friend that goes to Costa Rica 3-4x a year. It should be able to suppoer a 1x weekly flight.

I work at a travel agency in Minneapolis and specially last year we got a lot of requests to go to safer places than Mexico (specially Cancun), they were choosing Jamaica, Dominican Republic, the Bahamas or Central America... All of which by the way are fare more dangerous than Mexico on a murder rate per capita comparison even considering Mexico as a whole. Let alone comparing the safety of resort towns like Cancun. If you compare it on a more detailed basis Washington DC, Puerto Rico are more dangerous than Quintana Roo (Cancun's state) or Costa Rica which would be more similar as far as safety goes. But while most people love Costa Rica's nature, nothing compares to Cancun's beaches, hotel options, cuisine and cultural activities.

Quoting danild (Reply 39):I just did a search on San Jose non-stop and the RT price is at $1,181 USD on Delta Non-stop from MSP Vs $455 on Spirit... I don't see this turning into a permanent non-stop for MSP.

I do hope however that we get the all year round Cancun and HNL non-stop back @ MSP.

SJO is a much different draw than CUN....and the higher priced flights are indicative of that.....having said that....$1200 is a bargain to the $1500 for the new LAX-BZE that DL is charging

Quoting danild (Reply 39):I just did a search on San Jose non-stop and the RT price is at $1,181 USD on Delta Non-stop from MSP Vs $455 on Spirit... I don't see this turning into a permanent non-stop for MSP.

I think the MSP-SJO service would operate on a seasonal basis.
Just for illustrative purposes, the cheapest fare on the seasonal SYMSP-LIR starts from $750 as round-trip and it's 20% less than the regular year-round fare offered by their competitors and allowing one stopover.

All these flights will operate on a weekly basis from the very beginning and this fact confirms some of the hypothesis posted above related to the tiny demand of passengers on [BZE-LAX], [JFK-GUA] and [MSP-SJO].
Good luck to DL and thanks for trusting into the Central American scenario !

Regards.

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