FEC's 15-Month Reports Show Close

Partisan Competition in Battle for the House

April 26 - From a campaign finance perspective, control of the House after the 2002 election is still up for grabs, according to Michael J. Malbin, Executive Director of the Campaign Finance Institute. "The conventional wisdom has been that 2002 will be a great year for incumbents and a bad one for Democrats to gain six seats for a majority", Malbin said, "but the data do not necessarily support either assumption."

According to a new CFI analysis of 15-month candidate reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Democratic non-incumbents are slightly out-raising Republicans. While incumbents are well ahead of non-incumbents, the ratio is little different from the 15-month figures CFI also reviewed from the past. So far in 2001-02, House incumbents have raised a median of $413,875 (the mean or average was $469,441); non-incumbents have raised a median of $66,860 (mean: $160,576). This works out to be a ratio of about 6-to-1, virtually the same as in 1999-00. It is actually less uneven than the situation in the early and mid-1990s, when ratios of 7-to-1 and 8-to-1 prevailed.

One area where incumbents are strong is in the large number of uncontested seats. The number of non-incumbents reporting receipts to the FEC is only 466, the lowest number since 1990. In 1992, the most recent redistricting year, the equivalent number was 639; in 2000, there were 548 non-incumbents filing.

Among non-incumbents, Democrats have raised a median of $68,007 (mean: $169,952); Republicans trail slightly with a median of $65,829 (mean: $152,563). This continues a pattern seen in every election since 1990: Democratic non-incumbents have led Republicans at the 15-month mark. But Republicans have closed the gap some since the reports at the end of 2001. Then, Democrats led Republicans by medians of $53,072 to $39,556.

Republican incumbents lead Democrats in the latest figures. The median for Republicans is $435,650 (mean: $493,532), while Democratic median stands at $380,762 (mean:$445,231). This is a lead comparable to that at the 15-month mark in 2000; indeed, Republican incumbents have led at that stage in every cycle since they took over the House in 1994.

Eight "Million-Dollar" Non-Incumbents

Eight non-incumbents raised more than a million dollars during the 15-month-period. In 2000, twelve non-incumbents did; three raised more than $2 million. Of the eight "million-dollar" non-incumbents in 2002, three are nationally prominent figures, three are candidates in highly targeted open seats; two are self-financers.

The three national figures are former Clinton White House aide Rahm Emanuel, Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris and State Delete Mark Shriver, a member of the Kennedy clan. (Shriver is the only one of the nine who is seeking to oust an incumbent). Emanuel, Harris and Shriver lead the pack of non-incumbents; in 2000, the top three were all self-financers.

Of the targeted open-seat candidates, two were the presumptive nominees in the new Third District of Nevada: Clark County Board of Commissioners chairman Dario Herrera (D) and State Senator Jon Porter (R). State Representative Martha Fuller Clark (D-NH) is seeking to succeed Rep. John Sununu (R), who is challenging Sen. Bob Smith in the Republican primary.

Texas Republicans Peter Wareing and Tom Reiser have been predominately self-financing their campaigns. Wareing lost the runoff for the Republican nomination; Reiser will be the Republican nominee in the fall. In 2000, Wareing, running in a different Texas district, was the number one non-incumbent fundraiser at the 15-month stage.

Just under the million-dollar mark are West Virginia Democrat Jim Humphreys, a wealthy trial lawyer who ran unsuccessfully for the same seat in 2000, and Michigan Republican Candice Miller, who is seeking to succeed Rep. David Bonior (D), who is running for governor.

Humphreys and Shriver are the only non-incumbents in the top ten who are challenging incumbents. They are both running in heavily contested primaries to oppose Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) and Rep. Constance Morella, respectively. All the others are seeking open seats. In 2000, three of the top ten were challengers.

Top Ten Non-Incumbent Fundraisers

Rahm Emanuel (D-IL)

$1,980,711

Katherine Harris (R-FL)

$1,724,133

Mark Shriver (D-MD)

$1,673,067

Peter Wareing (R-TX)

$1,411,324

Dario Herrera (D-NV)

$1,042,164

Martha Fuller Clark (D-NH)

$1,037,613

Tom Reiser (R-TX)

$1,028,299

Jon Porter (R-NV)

$1,008,548

Jim Humphreys (D-WV)

$995,307

Candice Miller (R-MI)

$932,076

Top Ten Incumbent Fundraisers

Richard Gephardt (D-MO)

$2,258,357

Robert Menendez (D-NJ)

$2,154,722

Bob Barr (R-GA)

$1,835,686

Dennis Hastert (R-IL)

$1,719,624

Nancy Johnson (R-CT)

$1,690,274

Patrick Kennedy (D-RI)

$1,528,254

Anne Northup (R-KY)

$1,398,489

Don Young (R-AK)

$1,316,943

Shelley Berkley (D-NV)

$1,262,602

Robert C. Hayes Jr. (R-NC)

$1,225,900

The Campaign Finance Institute is a non-partisan organization affiliated with the George Washington University that engages in policy relevant research, organizes task forces and conducts public programs in the field of campaign finance. It is supported by generous grants from The Joyce Foundation, The Pew Charitable Trusts and the Smith Richardson Foundation, Inc.