Euro Model March Snow Threat

This afternoon’s run of the Euro model shows a few changes that lead to a more bullish view regarding a last chance shot at a March snowfall. The model seems to be reacting to a couple of things that are going on in the atmosphere.First off the North Atlantic Oscillation is weakly positive and is trending toward neutral through next week.

Euro Model March Snow Threat Long Term Indices

This is combing with the strengthening off the wall positive Pacific North America or P.N.A. pattern index which remains off the wall positive. This leads to two outcomes. The first with regards to the N.A.O is a storm track to the south rather than to the west. The second is that the PNA means a strong ridge in the west which allows storms to amplify as they reach the east coast.

The first change actually shows up with the lead weather system for the middle of this coming week. Rather than taking a deep storm to the west of the coast like last week’s, the Euro model is now showing a weaker system further southeast. The outcome with this is probably going to be rain that might change to snow in some areas north of the coast before precipitation ends.

Euro Model March Snow Threat Euro Model Forecast Tuesday & Wednesday

Im not particularly excited about this first weather system given how warm it will be ahead of it. However the fact that model is shying away from a deep storm to Eastern Canada is significant because it sets the stage for system number two. Less depth of the first might allow more room for the second.

The upper air structure on the European is different from prior runs as the southern stream feature is lifting further north. It also shows interaction from the northern jet stream as a disturbance swings around and attempts to phase. The outcome is for a major storm when the low is offshore. The track overall on this run is further northwest and results in the northern snow shield to push into the Southern New England, the Hudson Valley and Northwest New Jersey.

Euro Model March Snow Threat Euro Model 03/06/2016

Now a literal interpetation of this run were it to play out exactly is that the immediate coast, Long Island and Southeast New England would get some accumulating snow but the bulk of the storm would still be offshore. Given that this is very early in the game and given that there has been a tendency for models to trend west over time, we will have to watch later runs to see if the trend to be further north continues. Obviously you can’t draw any definitive conclusions based on this one run alone. The Euro model has been leading the way here and the other weather models seem to be adjusting to this in their own way. Again as it the past storms of the last several weeks, timing and phasing of individual areas of energy will be key. The Euro does some sort of phase here but as we have seen in the past, that isn’t always what the final outcome is. The pattern at least is opening a door for one last gasp attempt before winter wraps up and calls it a day.

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