We are def. heading in to an El Nino cycle...too soon to tell however how strong it will be. While this doesn't matter for the west coast- us on the EC really care. the difference between strong el nino's, moderate el nino's and weak to neutral el nino's really affect the east coast...For example Philly has done very well in moderate to strong el nino's but the greens have fared only so-so in those years.

Honestly though- for the EC- it's much more about the NAO, the AO and synoptic storms and timing than it is about these mega features.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
9 July 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through the
Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010.
During June 2009, conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from ENSO-neutral
to El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to increase, with the latest
weekly departures exceeding +1.0°C along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). All of
the weekly SST indices increased steadily during June and now range from +0.6°C to +0.9°C (Fig. 2).
Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3)
also increased as the thermocline continued to deepen (Fig. 4). Consistent with the oceanic evolution, the
low-level equatorial trade winds were weaker-than-average across much of the Pacific basin, and
convection became increasingly suppressed over Indonesia. This coupling of the ocean and atmosphere
indicates the development of El Niño conditions.
Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5) reflect a growing consensus
for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the
spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C).
Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El
Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter.
Expected El Niño impacts during July-September 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the
central and west-central Pacific Ocean, along with the continuation of drier than average conditions over
Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the
Northern Hemisphere Summer and early Fall, and generally strengthen during the late Fall and Winter.
El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the
Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook issued
in May (will be updated on Aug. 6th) indicates the highest probabilities for a near-average season.

"In North America, typically, winters are warmer than normal in the upper Midwest states, the Northeast, and Canada, while central and southern California, northwest Mexico and the southwestern U.S., are wetter and cooler than normal. Summer is wetter in the intermountain regions of the U.S. The Pacific Northwest states, on the other hand, tend to experience dry but foggy winters and warm, sunny and precocious springs during an El Niño."

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
6 August 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter
2009-2010.
A weak El Niño was present during July 2009, as monthly sea surface temperatures (SST)
departures ranged from +0.5°C to +1.5°C across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest anomalies
in the eastern half of the basin (Fig. 1). Consistent with this warmth, all of the Niño-region SST indices
were between +0.6°C to +1.0°C throughout the month (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content (average
temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) anomalies continued to reflect a deep layer of
anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and thermocline (Fig. 4). Also, convection was suppressed
over Indonesia and enhanced across the western Pacific and near the International Date Line. In addition,
developing El Niño’s often feature westerly wind bursts over the western equatorial Pacific, such as the
one which occurred at the end of July (Fig. 5). These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect El Niño.
A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index (Fig. 6) suggest El Niño will
continue to strengthen. While there is disagreement on the eventual strength of El Niño, nearly all of the
dynamical models predict a moderate-to-strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.
A strengthening El Niño during the next few months is also suggested by the recent westerly wind event
in the western equatorial Pacific, which can lead to additional anomalous warmth across the central and
east-central equatorial Pacific during the next two months. Therefore, current conditions and model
forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern
Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST
index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.
Expected El Niño impacts during August-October 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the
central and west-central Pacific Ocean and the continuation of drier than average conditions over
Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the
Northern Hemisphere Summer and early Fall, and generally strengthen during the late Fall and Winter.
El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the
Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean (see the Aug. 6th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal
Hurricane Outlook ).

Understanding the NWS Seasonal Outlook

An updated seasonal outlook is published the third Thursday of every month by the Climate Prediction Center at the NOAA website. It's written in science-speak in all caps and is very challenging to understand. This article translates it into plain English:

"Higher snow levels will translate to rain in the city, while the ski areas, although they may endure more rain events than in the past few years, will still have their powder days."

Uhhhh....what the hell does that mean. We are going to have a dozen decent days or is it going to unleash in the later half of the season? I hope we have a better snow pack than we did last year. It sounds like a repeat of last year on the Canadian west coast. Fuck!

Wait and see...

There is always a lot of variability in the La Nina/El Nino cycle. It's hard to predict with great confidence in August what will happen in January or February. The weather guys can only make an evidence-based guess. The next seasonal outlook will be released Sept. 17. After that, Oct. 15. As we get closer to ski season, a more accurate picture may come into focus. Meantime, we must savor what remains of summer, and not let the specter of El Nino ruin a beautiful sunny 85 degree day.

WHY ARE THE DWEEBS SO INTERESTED IN SUNSPOTS AND THE CURRENT SOLAR MINIMUM?
BECAUSE IT IS MY "PERSONAL BELIEF" THAT THE SUNS OUTPUT OF ENERGY OVER A TIME SCALE OF SOME 5 TO 10 YEARS WILL HAVE A DIRECT CORRELATION TO GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AND THUS CAN EFFECT "THE EARTHS WEATHER ON A CLIMATE TIME SCALE".

SUNSPOT UPDATE:

QUIET SUN: According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. There have been no sunspots for 47 days and there are none in the offing. Another 5 days of spotlessness and it will tie last years record. The deep solar minimum continues!

So last el nino we had plenty of precip just more rain than usual.

With the same precip but a couple degrees cooler it would have been a good winter.

The U.N. weather agency predicts that the El NIño ocean-warming phenomenon strengthening in the tropical Pacific is likely to last well into next year, altering the world’s weather patterns.
Past El Niños have been associated with storms in California, drought in Australia and Indonesia and extremely heavy rainfall in East Africa, all at different times of the year.

"El Niño, which is established right now, is associated with weaker monsoons and also weaker cyclone (hurricane) season in the North Atlantic," World Meteorological Organization (WMO) scientist Rupa Kumar Kolli told reporters.

An acute drought currently parching South Asia has been due to very weak monsoon activity this summer, while El Niño was establishing.

But the WMO cautions that no two El Niños are alike, and that reliable predictions of what weather patterns are likely to do through the spring of 2010 are not yet available.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 September 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter
2009-2010.
A weak El Niño continued during August 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) remained
above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Consistent with this warmth, the latest weekly
values of the Niño-region SST indices were between +0.7°C to +1.0°C (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat
content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) anomalies continued to reflect a
deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and the thermocline, particularly in the
central Pacific (Fig. 4). Enhanced convection over the western and central Pacific abated during the
month, but the pattern of suppressed convection strengthened over Indonesia. Low-level westerly wind
anomalies continued to become better established over parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These
oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing weak El Niño.
A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index (Fig. 5) suggest El Niño will reach
at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C
or greater). Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index in excess
of +1.5°C) during the fall and winter, but current observations and trends indicate that El Niño will most
likely peak at moderate strength. Therefore, current conditions, trends, and model forecasts favor the
continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2009,
with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño during the winter 2009-10.
Expected El Niño impacts during September-November 2009 include enhanced precipitation over
the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean and the continuation of drier-than-average conditions over
Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the
Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall, generally strengthening during the late fall and winter. El
Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the
Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean (see the Aug. 6th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal
Hurricane Outlook ).

Repeated cold intrusions from the Upper Midwest into the Eastern Seaboard. Generally warmer across the Intermountain Region and Great Plains, with area from Utah and Colorado into Missouri and Arkansas a buffer zone between returning warmth along the western Gulf Coast and a mild regime parallel and west of the Continental Divide. Some potential for occasional occurrence of colder values in the heartland of the U.S. due to Colorado/Trinidad "A" storms with increasing snow. Greatest threat for major winter storm will be over the major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor.

JANUARY

Widespread cold except for the West Coast and the Southeast. Active storm track from western Gulf of Mexico up along the Atlantic shoreline will create ice and snow hazards over the eastern third of the U.S. Lake effect snows may be crippling in Cleveland OH and Buffalo NY metro areas, with occasional issues from snowfall in Chicago IL, Indianapolis IN, Cincinnati OH and Pittsburgh PA. Ice storm risk may be higher through the interior of Dixie and along the Eastern Seaboard.

FEBRUARY

While cold strengthens its grip over much of Canada and the Midwest, I suspect that ridging will be an increased presence over the Southeast (see the analogue mean 500MB composite anomaly above for insight into this possibility). Very active procession of both Alberta Clippers and Colorado/Trinidad "A" cyclones along gradient between FL-GA positive height anomaly and cAk intrusions that will reach as far south as Texas and Appalachia (some spillover into the Northeast as well).

MARCH

Very similar to February scenario except that flat subtropical high may make inroads into the entirety of the Deep South (creating some warmth from Texas into the Carolinas). Extended winter for the Midwest as a whole; some risk present for late season surprise ice or snow event in the Northeast with a cold air damming scenario (i.e. backdoor cold front and overrunning).

El Nino watchers are scratching their heads at the latest ocean temperature trends in the equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperatures had been increasing earlier this year, and that and other signs pointed to a moderate to strong El Nino condition, which is still the official forecast from the US Climate Prediction Center.

But the move in that direction began to lose momentum late in the summer and, for the moment, is reversing itself. Sea surface temperatures in the key Pacific region that predicts an El Nino winter declined another tick in the week ending Oct. 4 to .7 degrees Celsius above normal, down from .8 the week before. That sounds negligible, but it's important because this is the second consecutive week temperatures have moved colder. If we were heading into a strong or even moderate El Nino event, they would still be getting warmer. In fact, temperatures just off the coast of South America have plummetted and are actually running below average now.

Still, September ocean temps were warm enough to chalk up the third conesecutive overlapping three-month period with temperatures at least .5 C above average. It will take two more months like that for this El Nino "condition" to go in the books as a full-fledged El Nino "event." But if it does, and the current trends don't change, it may well be the weakest El Nino event on record. And since that is such a rare condition, it will be interesting to see what effect, if any, it has on our weather this winter.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 October 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter
2009-2010.
A weak El Niño continued during September 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
remained nearly unchanged across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figs. 1 & 2). Since the transition
to El Niño conditions during June, the weekly values of the Niño-3.4 index have remained between
+0.7°C and +0.9°C (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of
the ocean, Fig. 3) anomalies continued to reflect a deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean
surface and the thermocline, particularly in the central and east-central Pacific (Fig. 4). The pattern of
tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the westcentral
Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. In addition, two westerly wind bursts were
observed over the western equatorial Pacific, the first occurring early in the month and the second
occurring near the end of the month (Fig. 5). These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an
ongoing weak El Niño.
A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index (Fig. 6) suggest that El Niño will
reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of
+1.0°C or greater). Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index in
excess of +1.5°C) during the fall and winter, but in recent months some models, including the NCEP
CFS, have over-predicted the degree of warming observed so far in the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 7). Based
on the model forecasts, the seasonality of El Niño, and the continuation of westerly wind bursts, El Niño
is expected to strengthen and most likely peak at moderate strength.
Expected El Niño impacts during October-December 2009 include enhanced precipitation over
the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For
the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation along the Gulf Coast,
from Texas to Florida, and below-average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest. Other potential
impacts include a continued suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity, along with above-average
temperatures and below-average snowfall for the Northern Plains.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
5 November 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.
During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and
eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figs. 1 & 2). The Niño-3.4 index increased nearly a degree with the
most recent weekly value at +1.5°C (Fig. 2). Above-average subsurface temperature anomalies increased
across a large region of the central and east-central Pacific, with anomalies ranging between +1 to +5°C
by the end of the month (Fig. 3). Consistent with this warming, subsurface oceanic heat content
anomalies (average departures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 4) also increased during the month.
In addition, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies strengthened over much of the
equatorial Pacific. The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with
enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia.
Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strengthening El Niño.
There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Niño, but
the majority indicate that the three-month average Niño-3.4 SST index value will range between +1.0°C
and +1.5°C during the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 5). Consistent with the historical evolution of
El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January. At this time, there is
a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist. Most of the models suggest that this
event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at
least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) and last through at least the
Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation
over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia.
For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida,
central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific
Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern
Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the
southeastern states.

Hate to say it but the pattern is progressing similar to 06/07. One of the suckiest years ever in the Tetons. Having the temps spiking right when winter is supposed to take over the hemisphere is not a good sign at all...it indicates less zonal flow and a higher percentage of storms that track in northwards from southern Nevada, arrive a day late and a dump short, just too warm and windy for that magic overnight pow that keeps on building up. Granular crystals, virga, and wind...thats what El Nino means in spanish to me. The latest temp increases are big. Sure, we'll get a few cold ones, but this pattern shift represents the potential difference between the 300 and the 600.