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Forecasting volcanic eruptions

Unlike earthquakes, most volcanic eruptions are preceded by clear episodes of unrest. These precursory signals are the main basis for forecasting eruptive activity, yet the quality of such forecasts are unknown. I will describe physical and empirical models for eruption forecasting and our efforts to quantify their performance. This work includes a project to test models in real-time, using data from multiple experimental facilities and volcano observatories.