Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Missouri and Maine Question Suggestions

Missouri and Maine were the winners of our vote on where to poll this week.

In Missouri we'll test Sarah Steelman, Ann Wagner, and Ed Martin against Claire McCaskill, and Peter Kinder against Jay Nixon. Is there anyone else we need to look at in those races? Suggestions on that front, as well as for any other questions you think we should ask in Missouri would be much appreciated.

In Maine we'll look at Andrew Ian Dodge and Scott D'Amboise in the primary against Olympia Snowe. Are there any other potential primary challengers we should look at against Snowe? There's really not much point in going beyond those two guys unless there's anyone with any sort of statewide name recognition who might end up going against Snowe. And what Democrats should we test in general election match ups? If there's anything beyond the Senate race you think we should test just let us know. Thanks as always for the suggestions! We will test the Presidential race and approval ratings for all Senators and Governors on these polls like we always do.

42 comments:

Jefferson County was once a solid democratic stronghold in Missouri but it swung to the GOP in a big way in 2010. Would be interesting to see whether thats a long term shift in voting behavior or a temporary outlet for economic/political anxiety

Be interested to see the ME GOP primary results. For the general, I wouldn't poll the Dems against Snowe, as barring a surprise, she should be crushing them and wouldn't tell anything new. Poll D'Amboise/Dodge or just generically a more conservative GOP nominee v the Dems.

For the Dems, definitely Scarcelli, as she's the only one showing direct interest. Maybe Pingree/Cain/Michaud?

In Maine, how about testing LePage against Snowe, in the primary or in a three-way race with LePage as an independent? Even if he wouldn't want to try to switch offices so early, he would make a good proxy for 'well known teabagger.'

Maine marriage equality would also be a good one.

For Missouri, how about something on the Cardinals? Either a 'how optimistic are you for the season' question, or something about opinions on Pujols and whether he'll re-sign.

For MO, IDK how many questions y'all can ask, but, if you can fit it in, try the SoS race to see how damaged Carnahan is from her 2010 Sen race. MO-04 primary loser (and former state sen) Bill Stouffer is running.

In the Maine GOP primary, wealthy developer Eric Cianchette is said to be considering a run (http://bit.ly/h55oHq) and would be a well funded, credible candidate unlike D'Amboise and Dodge. I strongly suggest you include him.

Chandler Woodcock, Paul LePage, Emily Cain, John Baldacci, Hannah Pingree, and Mike Michaud are absolutely 100% not running, guaranteed. They've all but ruled it out. Testing them would be pointless and a waste of time.

Bwahahahaha. Kevin Scott ran a "solid" campaign? 1% in the general election is "solid"? Then what's a failure? No votes?

Cianchette wouldn't be any more credible than D'AMboise or Dodge; nobody's ever heard of him. He has zero name ID. One thing we found out from Bruce Poliquin this cycle is that money doesn't buy you credibility in Maine.

LePage is not a substitute for anyone else; no candidate is. That's frankly a dumb argument. If you want to poll on generic conservatives, poll on generic conservatives. Otherwise, poll on real candidates or the data is all but useless.

Also, at some point it might be interesting to test the Republican field against some other Democrat - not because there's any likelihood of President Obama deciding against a second term, but for the sake of finding out whether the weakness of the Republican field right now is in contrast to him, or they're just disliked in their own right. Generic Democrat, or NY Gov Cuomo, or former VA Gov Tim Kaine, for example, could all produce some useful contrasts.

It'd take a lot more questions to go through extra permutations on the Democratic side along with the Republican options, but if there's nothing else that seems pressing in Missouri, that might be an interesting one to find out.

In Maine, I would love to see how Snowe does if she goes the route of Charlie Crist/Lisa Murkowski and runs as an independent. That would be a great question to include. For Democrats, Mike Michaud, Elliott Cutler, and Rosa Scarcelli seem like the best people to poll.

Cutler against Snowe. It would be interesting to see the split on that one. That "independent/moderate vote" is big up here. Polling Paul Lepage opposing Snowe might give you a decent thermometer in terms of organized anti-Snowe sentiment, as well. It's doubtful Woodcock, Cianchette, or Otten would look much different from one another vs Sen. Snowe. Baldacci, Pingree, and Scarcelli seem to have the most name recognition amongst the Democrats. Steven Rowe and Janet Mills could be worth the time polling. Thanks for your work, PPP.