Phoenix Coyotes a game away from new image

History says they'll choke. Slip on a banana peel. Break our hearts and crack their heads on a glass ceiling.

Ah, but these Coyotes don't listen so well.

After a stirring overtime triumph in Game 4, our plucky hockey team is one win removed from its first NHL playoff series victory since moving to the Valley in 1996, and its first as a franchise in 25 years. That means Saturday night's game in Glendale could be a watershed moment, liberating a maligned organization from its awful past.

You can almost hear shackles hitting the floor.

Remember how thousands of Cardinals fans wept in the stands after their team clinched a berth in the Super Bowl? A fourth victory against the Chicago Blackhawks would have a similar effect among die-hards, carrying the euphoria of a mission completed, of faith rewarded.

But what would it really mean?

"It's hard to say," said Mike Nealy, the Coyotes' chief operating officer. "But there are a lot of hockey fans out here, people who have moved from Canada, Michigan and Minnesota. Some of them are still following their original team, as Arizonans tend to do. But just like the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, when you start winning, people start wearing your colors."

As a sports market, we are hard to quantify. Our fickle behavior baffles some of the savviest executives in the business. We are like San Diego, with more teams and less water. But this is certain:

Television ratings are up significantly from the regular season, which means casual fans are attracted to the story. Those peeking in for the first time have witnessed brutally intense hockey and four consecutive overtime games, which has happened only once before in NHL playoff history.

With all this violence and drama, how could you not be seduced?

Three times, the Coyotes have coughed up a victory in the closing moments. Twice, they've found a way to overcome their gag reflex and win the game. There's a sense it can all fall apart at any moment, which only heightens the drama.

When a team takes a community on that kind of thrill ride and prevails, well, it could mean a whole new world.

"Here's what happened in Dallas," said Coyotes coach Dave Tippett, who once coached the Dallas Stars. "Success brings exposure to the sport. The exposure is felt on a grass-roots level. Kids get excited. Parents get excited. And then they become fans. It's playoff hockey. It's very, very exciting."

Momentum is building. Season-ticket renewals are currently at 87 percent without any guarantee the team will be here next season. They've sold enough new packages to replace the 13 percent still on the fence, and the base remains at 5,000 fans.

A prolonged playoff run will grow that number. The feel-good stature of the team will help Glendale politicians mute the protesters and rationalize budget shortfalls. And while negotiations are reportedly nearing a conclusion with former San Jose Sharks CEO Greg Jamison and his group of investors, a prolonged playoff run could bring more bidders into the mix at the last minute.

"I'm sure there are a few billionaires out there who wouldn't mind spending $200 million for a Stanley Cup champion," Nealy said.

Imagine that.

"It feels like hockey fever in the Valley," said Tyson Nash, a former player and current team broadcaster. "We had 300 people waiting for us when we won the division. We had another 100 (on Friday). This is what it's supposed to be like. We just need someone to take advantage of this and buy the team, to put money into advertising, to do things you need to make a business flourish."

Still, this is hockey. More importantly, this is hockey in Glendale. This is a niche sport in a remote location, and the problem is systemic. Not enough people will drive to Jobing.com Arena 41 times during the regular season.

A series victory might represent a step in the right direction, but rebuilding a season-ticket base to a healthy, sustainable level will require more than just one playoff run.

"The fact that fans are still behind us after all these years is proof that there's a bigger market there for us," team captain Shane Doan said.

Now, they need to finish the job. But thresholds can be tricky.

When the Coyotes first arrived, they had a marquee team. The Suns had traded Charles Barkley and were perfectly awful. The Diamondbacks were still on the drawing board. The market was ripe for a new diversion.

They held a 3-2 series advantage against Anaheim in 1997, and lost. They squandered a 3-1 series advantage against St. Louis in 1999 after their head coach, Jim Schoenfeld, publicly guaranteed a victory.

It will take a special effort to squelch their history and the Blackhawks on Saturday.

Yet over the past few years, Tippett has noticed something special about the core of this group. Whenever adversity surfaced -- rumors, relocation reports or feuding factions on the periphery -- the coach would enter the dressing room looking for emotional clues. Without fail, he'd notice his players smirking.

Bring it on.

"We need one more victory," Doan said. "And we all know the fourth one is the hardest to find."

You can look it up.

Reach Bickley at dan.bickley@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-8253. Follow him at twitter.com/danbickley. Listen to "Bickley and MJ" weekdays on 2-6 p.m. on XTRA Sports 910.