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"James combines his intimate knowledge of the region with a great passion for soccer"

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James Corbett, Inside World Football

Saturday, September 30, 2017

Saudi Arabia’s lifting of a ban on women’s driving raises a
host of questions that transcend the issue of women’s rights and go to the core
of the standing of the kingdom’s religious scholars and its impact on
conservative opposition to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s economic and
social reforms.

There is little doubt that the scholars’
endorsement of the lifting
of the ban amounted to the latest of a series of incidents in which Prince
Mohammed imposed his will on scholars who long successfully opposed
liberalization of religious and social codes based on the teachings of the 18th
century ultra-conservative preacher Mohammed ibn Abdul al-Wahhab as well as
Bedouin culture.

Adding insult to injury, Saudi Arabia’s Shura or Advisory
Council voted days after the lifting of the ban to allow women to issue
fatwas or religious opinions, long a preserve of male Islamic scholars, for
the first time.

Islamic scholars, many of whom enjoy celebrity status on
social media, derived their ability to enforce ultra-conservative norms,
including the ban on women’s driving, from a power sharing agreement concluded
between the ruling Al Saud family and Ibn Abdul Wahhab’s followers that dates
back to the founding of modern day Saudi Arabia.

It’s unlikely that the scholars
who consistently maintained that women lacked the intelligence to drive and
that driving would damage their ovaries, deprive them of their virginity and
integrity, and promote immoral behaviour had a sudden, recent epiphany that convinced
them that their decades-old beliefs were wrong even if those were falsely
packaged as rooted in religion.

Prince Mohammed reportedly
quipped a year before the lifting of the ban that “if women were allowed to
ride camels (in the time of the Prophet Mohammed), perhaps we should let them
drive cars, the modern-day camels.”

Commenting on the lifting of the ban, scholar Haifaa
Jawad argued that “the biggest losers are undoubtedly Saudi religious
scholars – legitimacy will now be questioned by millions of Muslims in the
kingdom and beyond.”

That long-standing ultra-conservative values are alive and
kicking among prominent scholars was evident when they felt confident enough
earlier this year to voice opposition to Prince Mohammed’s loosening of social
codes with the introduction of various forms of entertainment in a country in
which cinemas and public concerts were banned.

Now a supporter of women’s driving, Saudi
Arabia's grand mufti, Sheikh Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh, warned in January that
concerts
and cinemas were harmful and cause immorality. Sheikh
Abdullah al-Mutlaq, another member of the Council of Senior Scholars that
endorsed lifting of the driving ban, called for a referendum,
asserting that a majority of Saudis opposed concerts.

Other scholars targeted performers as well as, in lieu attacking
the ruling family head-on, the entertainment authority established by Prince Mohammed
to create an industry.

This time round Prince Mohammed made sure the
ultra-conservatives would hold their fire by arresting in recent weeks scores
of scholars, judges and intellectuals, whose views run the gamut from
ultra-conservative to liberal. Among those arrested were scholars Salman al-Odah,
Aaidh al-Qarni and Ali al-Omari, poet Ziyad bin Naheet and economist Essam
al-Zamil, some of whom have more than 17 million followers on
Twitter.

The detentions were also designed to silence alleged support
in the kingdom for an end to the almost four-month old Gulf crisis that has
pitted Saudi Arabia and its allies against Qatar and mounting criticism of the
conduct of the kingdom’s ill-fated, 2.5-year old war in Yemen.

“It is hard to envisage MBS succeeding in his ambitious
plans by royal decree. He needs to garner more consent. To obtain it, he must
learn to tolerate debate and disagreement,” quipped The
Economist, referring to Prince Mohammed by his initials.

The arrests potentially could backfire. Those behind bars
are likely to see their credibility rise while those that bent over backwards
to accommodate the regime may find it increasingly difficult to justify their about-face
to the more conservative segments of Saudi society.

To ensure continued buy-in into his reforms by Saudi youth,
who account for more than half of the population, and counter opposition,
Prince Mohammed has to both manage expectations, something he has yet to do,
and start delivering on promises. The lifting of the driving ban and scores of
entertainment events deliver on social aspects, but equally important will be
yet-to be achieved delivery on jobs, opportunities and career paths for Saudi
youth.

That is proving easier said than done as Saudis feel the
cost of the prince’s unilateral rewriting of the kingdom’s social contract that
promised a cradle-to-grave welfare state in exchange for surrender of political
rights and acceptance of ultra-conservative moral and social codes.

Prince Mohammed was forced to re institute perks that were
cancelled as part of an austerity program that saw prices, particularly of
utilities, skyrocket.

The crown prince’s hopes for a $2 trillion evaluation of
national oil company Aramco with the sale of a five percent stake in an initial
public offering (IPO) expected next year has been called into question by
potential investors who note that scrutiny could call the oil giant’s estimates
of the kingdom’s
oil reserves and security
record into question.

Compounding the prince’s problems is the question whether
and at what point the ultra-conservative religious establishment may feel that
the cost of remaining silent or supporting reforms may be higher than the cost
of standing against him. That decision could be influenced by the scholars’
ability to forge alliances with members
of the ruling family reportedly opposed to Prince Mohammed.

Similarly, much will depend on the degree to which Prince
Mohammed delivers on the expectations he has raised among an important segment
of Saudi youth that aspires to jobs with career paths and a degree of social
liberalization.

Despite an increasing number of entertainment opportunities
and the lifting of the driving ban, Prince Mohammed has yet to manage the gap
between unrealistic expectations and the timeframe within which he might be
able to deliver on key economic aspects of his Vision 2030 reform program.

“The issue is how Saudis perceive change,” said Saudi
scholar Abdul
Al Lily in an interview last year. He likened Vision 2030 to the wind in a Saudi
proverb that says: “If there is a door that might bring wind, close the door.”

Saudi attitudes towards change are in Mr. Al Lily’s view
stand-offish. “People don’t believe in change... The government doesn’t have a
plan to sell Vision 2030. In addition, it has at least partially been drafted
by foreigners. All of this is important. Implementing it will not be easy,” Mr.
Al Lily said.

Stick to Sports? No Thanks.

Another week of sports headlines off the field begins as Adam Zagoria from ZagsBlog.com joins the show to talk the latest in the FBI investigation of corruption and bribery in college basketball. Then, Christian breaks down the most recent moves in the NBA, including Carmelo Anthony's trade with Tommy Dee of TheKnicksBlog.com. Finally, the world of sports and politics collide as Christian is joined by James Dorsey of International Policy Digest who explains this is nothing new.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Uproar about a launderette
owner’s decision to bar non-Muslims from using his service has focused a
spotlight on broader discriminatory attitudes in Malaysian society as well as
elsewhere in Asia that are reinforced by Saudi-inspired ultra-conservative
interpretations of Islam.

In contrast to many Asian leaders who have been reluctant to
confront-ultra-conservatives head-on, Sultan Ibrahim Ibni Sultan
Iskander, the sovereign of the Malaysian state of Johor, did not mince his
words in forcing the launderette owner to rescind his ban on non-Muslims and insist
that Johor was “not a Taliban state.”

The silver-lining in the launderette owner’s controversial
move is the fact that it sparked debate about discrimination in Malaysia.
Malaysian opposition member of parliament Teo Nie Ching announced
that she was considering introducing legislation to strengthen
anti-discrimination in the country’s legal code. It was not immediately clear
whether she would tackle Malaysia’s banning of the use of the word Allah by
Christians and repression of the country's miniscule Shiite community in any
proposed legislation.

Similarly, Malaysian lawyer Syahredzan Johan asked on
Twitter what the difference was between what the difference was between a
launderette owner refusing to service non-Muslims and Malaysian Chinese
accepting only Chinese roommates or Malaysians refusing to rent properties to
Africans.

“We need to look at the aspect of discrimination within our
society… I think these are discussions that need to happen moving forwards
instead of just pigeonholing it as something like increasing Islamisation or Talibanization,”
Mr. Johan said.

The launderette uproar was but one of several incidents in
Malaysia sparked by Saudi-inspired ultra-conservatism. Ultra-conservatives
stirred a furore over this year’s Better Beer Festival in Kuala Lumpur.

In contrast to Sultan Ibrahim’s response, Kuala Lumpur’s municipality
caved in to Islamist agitation by refusing to authorize the annual event that aims
to promote smaller breweries because it was politically sensitive.

Similarly, a decision by religious authorities in the
Malaysian state of Kelantan to recommend counselling and impose a fine on a
Muslim man for wearing shorts in public triggered fierce debate on social
media. "Slowly, those educated in religious education in Middle East is
trying to turn Malaysia into Taliban country,” said John Brian Anthony on
Facebook.

The debate sparked by the string of incidents goes to the
core of concern across Asia about a rising threat of jihadism as the Islamic
State (IS) loses its territorial base in Syria and Iraq and looks for new
pastures in South, Central and South-eastern Asia. A IS-affiliated group has
been battling security forces in the Philippine city of Marawi for the past
three months while Islamic militants are blamed for sparking the latest Rohingya
crisis in Myanmar.

The challenge for Asian governments is to complement law
enforcement and military measures to counter militants with inclusive policies
that ensure that all segments of their populations have a stake in society.

That is proving to be a tall order for leaders like
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, who has used Islam to shore up his image
tarnished by a massive corruption scandal, as well as Indonesian President Joko
Widodo. Like others, the two leaders face popular pressure from Saudi-inspired
Islamic militants. Similarly, Pakistani military and civilian leaders see
militants as useful proxies in their dispute with India and geopolitical manoeuvring
in Afghanistan.

There is little indication that Asian governments are
capable or willing to confront deeply ingrained attitudes that have in part
been fostered by a global, four-decade old, $100 billion Saudi campaign that
propagated ultra-conservative visions of Islam in a bid to establish the
kingdom as the leader of the Muslim world and to counter the revolutionary
appeal of Iran following the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled a monarch and
an icon of US influence in the Middle East.

The campaign has not only influenced segments of Muslim
society across Asia, but also ensured that discrimination is enshrined in legislation
in various countries that politically would be difficult, if not impossible, to
revise.

Repealing blasphemy laws in countries like Indonesia and
Pakistan would spark popular revolts. So would rolling back Saudi-inspired
anti-Ahmadi legislation in Pakistan and anti-Shiite laws in Malaysia and
discrimination of Ahmadis as well as gays and transgenders in various parts of
Asia. Militants this year successfully blocked a Christian from running for
re-election as governor of Jakarta after ensuring that he was convicted on
blasphemy charges.

In Pakistan, a country in which Saudi-inspired
ultra-conservatism has left one of its largest footprints, supporters of a
preacher who adheres to a strand of Sufism, a mystical wing of Islam denounced
by ultra-conservatives, attacked
a party in a region bordering on Afghanistan for playing music The incident
demonstrated the pervasiveness of Saudi-inspired ultra-conservatism.

“If you use force to make people more religious or make them
understand religion the way you understand it, then you are bringing more harm
than benefit to the religion,” said Mustafa
Akyol, a prominent Turkish intellectual and journalist, minutes before
boarding a plane at Kuala Lumpur International Airport after he was detained
for 24 hours for giving a university lecture allegedly without having proper
credentials.

In an indication of the risks of ingrained discrimination
and racism, Malaysian authorities this week arrested
an Indonesian supporter of IS who was on his way to Myanmar to support the
Rohingya by attacking Myanmar targets.

The arrest highlighted the degree to which Asian leaders
would have to think out of the box to tackle drivers of militancy and work
towards religious and ethnic harmony. The Rohingya issue poses a threat that
goes far beyond immediate humanitarian concerns or where to temporarily locate
hundreds of thousands who in recent weeks have fled to Bangladesh from Myanmar,
a patchwork of 135 predominantly Buddhist ethnic groups.

Differences of opinion about who the Rohingya are and where
they belong among Myanmar Muslims and non-Muslims alike are not going to solve
a problem that is fuelling militancy and potentially is becoming a rallying cry
for the Muslim world.

“We don’t want to simply go back to Myanmar to be
non-persons. We want to belong somewhere,” a Rohingya refugee in Bangladesh was
quoted by news media as saying.

The refugee hit the nail on the head. The Rohingya will
continue to be a festering problem as long as no permanent solution is found.
The stakes are not defining who they are or where they historically belong but creating
a permanent, solution for a group whose unresolved plight goes to the future of
Asia. The stakes are what kind of Asia Asians want and to what degree Asian
leaders and societies are willing to confront problems head-on.

A woman walks down a street in Riyadh on September 27, 2017, after Saudi Arabia decided to allow women to drive from next June

Saudi Arabia's historic lifting of a ban on women driving will be a litmus test for its king-in-waiting, who has sought to sideline the kingdom's arch-conservatives as he accelerates reforms, analysts say.

The kingdom will issue driving licences to women from next June, in the most striking reform yet credited to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, despite the risk of a backlash from hardliners.

But after his recent crackdown on dissenters, including prominent clerics with huge followings, experts say the prince may face only a muted opposition.

"The lifting of a ban... will likely serve as a litmus test for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's ability to introduce economic and social reforms despite conservative opposition," said James Dorsey, a fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

"If last week's national day celebrations in which women were allowed to enter stadiums in anything to go by, the opposition is likely to be limited to protests on social media."

On Saturday, women were allowed for the first time into a sports stadium to mark national day, a move that chimes with the Prince Mohammed's "Vision 2030" reform plan.

Men and women also danced in the streets to drums and thumping electronic music, in scenes that were a stunning anomaly in a country known for its tight gender segregation and austere vision of Islam.

This gambit to loosen social restrictions in the ultra-conservative society was made possible partly by the latest crackdown, which was seen as a show of force by Prince Mohammed, experts say.

Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi journalist and former government advisor who went into exile in the United States, described a new Saudi era of "fear, intimidation, arrests and public shaming" in an article published in The Washington Post.

- 'Assertion of power' -

Those arrests were not directly related to the driving ban, but apparently to an ongoing crisis with Gulf rival Qatar, said Jane Kinninmont from London-based Chatham House.

"But the arrests represented an assertion of power over the independent, politically influential clerics and sent a message that Prince Mohammed does not see himself as beholden to them as partners in government," Kinninmont told AFP.

"The fact that they have been arrested without significant unrest being triggered is likely to have made the Saudi leadership more confident that it can make (social) change without much in the way of opposition."

Prince Mohammed is set to be the first millennial to occupy the throne, in a country where half the population is under 25, when he takes over from his 81-year-old father King Salman.

"I think Prince Mohammed is ideologically committed to taking the Saudi state in a new direction: less austere, more nationalist," said Kristin Diwan, from the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

Unlike previous rulers, he has shown a willingness to tackle entrenched Saudi taboos, and is seen as catering to the aspirations of youth with an array of entertainment options and promoting more women in the workforce.

"Women should obviously have had the right to drive a long time ago -? the fact that this decision was so long in coming shows just how much has changed in Saudi Arabia with Prince Mohammed now wielding executive authority," said Perry Cammack, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

- 'Discriminatory practices' -

But hardliners could still emerge as a potent threat.

Many Saudis on social media, irked by the mixing of genders on national day, derisively compared the country to "Las Vegas".

"Patriotism does not mean sin" became a widely used hashtag, while some called for the religious police, whose powers have been curtailed in recent years, to restore moral order.

The government has sought to downplay their influence, saying that most senior clerics in the kingdom "agree that Islam does not ban women from driving".

But aside from religious hardliners, women also face opposition from a conservative society that is unaccustomed -- or fundamentally opposed -- to women drivers.

Under the country's guardianship system, a male family member -- normally the father, husband or brother -- must grant permission for a woman's study, travel and other activities.

It was unclear whether women would require their guardian's permission to apply for a driving licence.

"If by June next year women in Saudi Arabia are driving the streets without fear of arrest, then this will be a cause for celebration," said Philip Luther, from Amnesty International.

"But it is just one step. We also need to see a whole range of discriminatory laws and practices swept away."

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Saudi Arabia’s long-awaited lifting of a ban on women’s
driving, widely viewed as a symbol of Saudi misogyny, will likely serve as a
litmus test for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ability to introduce
economic and social reforms despite conservative opposition.

It also distracts
attention from international criticism of the kingdom’s war in Yemen and charges
by human rights groups as well as some Muslim leaders that the kingdom is
fostering sectarianism and prejudice against non-Muslims.

If last week’s national day celebrations in which women were
for the first time allowed to enter a stadium is anything to go by, opposition
is likely to be limited to protests on social media.

To be sure, thousands welcomed the move as well as the
lifting of the ban and Saudi
media reported that senior Islamic scholars, who for decades opposed
expanding women’s rights and some of whom criticized Prince Mohammed’s effort
to expand entertainment opportunities in the kingdom, said that they saw no
religious objection to women’s driving.

Conservatives made their rejection of enhancing women’s
rights in response to the national day celebrations.

"Patriotism does not mean sin. Of course, what is
happening does not please God and his prophet. Patriotism is not dancing, free
mixing, losing decency and playing music. What strange times," said one
critic on Twitter.

A video of
a man telling celebrating crowds that they have “no shame, no religion, no
tribe" was widely shared on social media.

Hundreds of thousands used an Arabic hashtag demanding the
restoration of powers to the kingdom’s religious police, whose ability to
strictly enforce ultra-conservative Sunni Muslim moral codes was curbed last
year.

A 24-year-old, speaking earlier this year to The
Guardian, noted that ultra-conservatism maintains a hold on significant
numbers of young people. “You know that the top 11 Twitter handles here are
Salafi clerics, right? We are talking more than 20 million people who hang on
their every word. They will not accept this sort of change. Never,” the youth
said.

In advance of the lifting of the ban, Saudi authorities
banned Saad al-Hijri, head of fatwas (religious legal opinions) in the Asir
governorate, from preaching for declaring that women
should not drive because their brains shrink to a quarter the size of a
man’s when they go shopping.

The suspension was
the latest measure in a crackdown in which scores of Islamic scholars,
including some of the kingdom’s most popular ones, judges and intellectuals,
were arrested. The arrested were likely to ensure that conservative opposition
to the lifting of the ban would be muted.

The kingdom’s decision to delay implementation of the
decision until June next year gives the government time to neutralize
opposition and serves as an indication of what it would take to ensure Saudi
women’s rights.

To implement the decision, Saudi Arabia has to first
eliminate bureaucratic,
legal and social hurdles that prevent women from obtaining licenses, create
facilities for women to learn how to drive, and train policemen to interact
with female drivers in a country that enforces gender segregation and in which
men largely interact only with female relatives.

The lifting of the ban is part of Prince Mohammed’s Vision 2030 plan that seeks to diversify
and streamline the economy and introduce limited social reform but avoid
political liberalization.

With women accounting for half of the Saudi population and
more than half of its university graduates, Vision 2030 indicates the limits on
granting women’s rights by envisioning that women will account for only 30
percent of a reformed kingdom’s workforce.

While the lifting of the ban in a decree by King Salman
allows women to apply for a license without the permission of their male
guardian, the principle of
male guardianship that subjects women to the will of their menfolk remains
in place.

There is, moreover, for example, no indication that last
week’s use of a stadium as a test case, will lead to a lifting of restrictions
on women’s sporting rights, including free access to attend men’s competitions
and the ability to practice and compete in a majority of sports disciplines
that are not mentioned in the Qur’an.

The public relations value of the lifting of the ban was
evident in the fact that it temporarily drew attention away from news that
reflected badly on the kingdom, including mounting international criticism of
Saudi conduct of its war in Yemen, that has pushed the country to the edge of
the abyss. Saudi Arabia has desperately been seeking to avert
censorship by the United Nations and defeat calls for an independent
investigation.

It also put on the news backburner, a 62-page report
by Human Rights Watch that, despite the banning of Mr. Al-Hijri, documented
that that Saudi Arabia has permitted government-appointed religious scholars and
clerics to refer to religious minorities in derogatory terms or demonize them
in official documents and religious rulings that influence government
decision-making.” Anti-Shia, anti-Sufi, anti-Christian and anti-Jewish sentiment
was evident in the Saudi education system and in the judiciary, the report published
on Tuesday said.

Saudi Arabia adheres to a puritan interpretation of Islam
that views Shiite Muslims as heretics and advocates avoidance by Muslims of
non-Muslims.

The kingdom has spent an estimated $100 billion in the last
four decades to propagate its austere vision of Islam in a bid to establish
itself as the leader of the Muslim world and to counter the revolutionary
appeal of Iran following the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled a monarch and
an icon of US influence in the Middle East.

In doing so, it has contributed to Muslim societies like
Malaysia and Indonesia becoming more conservative and intolerant towards
minorities. Saudi ultra-conservative influence was visible earlier this week
when an owner of a self-service launderette in the Malaysian state of Johor banned
non-Muslims from using his services.

“Saudi Arabia has relentlessly promoted a reform narrative
in recent years, yet it allows government-affiliated clerics and textbooks to
openly demonize religious minorities such as Shia. This hate speech prolongs
the systematic discrimination against the Shia minority and – at its worst – is
employed by violent groups who attack them,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle
East director at Human Rights Watch.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

The owner of a self-service laundrette in the historic town
of Muar in the Malaysian state of Johor likely had little inkling of the
hornet’s nest he would stir up by putting up a sign barring non-Muslim from
using his services. Yet, the sign that went viral on social media reignited
debate about the nature of Islam and Malaysian culture in a country struggling
with creeping Sunni Muslim ultra-conservatism.

By implication, the owner, who declined to be identified,
adopted in justifying his decision concepts of puritan interpretations of Islam
inspired by Wahhabism and Salafism, understandings of the faith propagated by
Saudi Arabia.

“If we look at the issue from an Islamic perspective,
cleanliness is very important to us and something we must strive for at all
times. There are other laundrettes available nearby. So, it wouldn’t be a
problem for non-Muslims if they needed to find another place to wash their
clothes,” the
operator, who denied being a racist, said.

Mixed responses to the launderette owner’s decision,
particularly in Johor, a state whose sovereigns have been in the forefront of
voicing opposition to Saudi-inspired ultra-conservatism, laid bare deep
divisions in Malaysian society that inform policy at both the federal and local
level.

Eager to burnish its Muslim credentials, Malaysia has been
together with Bangladesh and Turkey in the vanguard of those coming to the
defense of Rohingya Muslims forced to flee Myanmar. An estimated 430,000 Rohingya
have fled to Bangladesh in recent weeks.

In a rare show of disagreement among members of the
10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Malaysia
this week disassociated itself from a measured statement on the Rohingya
crisis because it did not identify the Rohingya by name and constituted a "misrepresentation
of the reality of the situation." Malaysia had wanted the statement to be
more condemnatory of Myanmar operations against the Rohingya in Rakhine State.

Islamic militants, ultra-conservatives and political leaders
eager to capitalize on an issue that evokes deep-seated emotions in the Muslim
world have led the charge against Myanmar. While political leaders like
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan have condemned Myanmar, Islamic militants have called for the dispatch
of fighters to Rakhine State to defend the Rohingya.

Malaysia, in a further gesture to conservatives, this week briefly
detained Mustafa
Akyol, a prominent Turkish journalist, intellectual, and author at Kuala
Lumpur International Airport on suspicion of giving a lecture on Islam despite
not having proper credentials.

Malaysia,
long viewed as a model of multiculturalism in a Muslim-majority state has
increasingly adopted a harsher view of Islam highlighted by the banning of the
use of the word Allah by Christians and repression of the country's miniscule
Shiite community.

Bilahari Kausikan, a former Singaporean diplomat
and prominent intellectual, noted already two years ago a "significant and
continuing narrowing of the political and social space for non-Muslims" in
Malaysia. Mr. Kausikan blamed the emergence of a harsher interpretation of
Islam on "Arab influences from the Middle East (that) have for several
decades steadily‎ eroded the Malay variant of
Islam...replacing it with a more austere and exclusive interpretation."

Saudi
Arabia has spent an estimated $100 billion in the last four decades to
propagate its austere vision of Islam in a bid to establish itself as the
leader of the Muslim world and to counter the revolutionary appeal of Iran
following the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled a monarch and an icon of US
influence in the Middle East.

In
the latest manifestation of the influence of Saudi-inspired ultra-conservatism,
religious authorities in Johor came to the defense of the laundrette
owner.

"If someone wants to do it, then it is a good thing
because some Muslims hold doubts over laundromat services. It is better for Muslims to be free of such
doubts when it comes to cleanliness as it will help Muslims fulfil religious
obligations," said Johor
Mufti Datuk Mohd Tahrir Samsudin.

In contrast to the religious figures, Johor prince Tunku
Idris Sultan Ibrahim, following in the footsteps of his father, Sultan Ibrahim
Ibni Sultan Iskander, who last year confronted Saudi-inspired purists head-on, said
he was “appalled” by the laundrette’s move

In a series of postings on Instagram, Prince Tunku
Idris, described the owner’s decision as ‘extreme” and noted that "the
Quran says, 'speak good to people' - it doesn't say 'speak good only to
Muslims'." Prince Tunku Idris said
further that “Islam has taught me about tolerance and respecting people of
other faith. Not about supremacy over others.”

Similarly, the prince’s straight-talking
father didn’t mince words when he last year denounced Wahhabi and Salafi
practices by calling on Malaysians to uphold their country’s culture and not
imitate Arabs. The sultan decried what he described as creeping Arabization of
the Malay language by insisting on using Malay language references to religious
practices and Muslim holidays rather than Arabic ones.

“If there are some of you who wish to be an Arab and
practise Arab culture, and do not wish to follow our Malay customs and
traditions, that is up to you. I also welcome you to live in Saudi Arabia. That
is your right but I believe there are Malays who are proud of the Malay
culture. At least I am real and not a hypocrite and the people of Johor know
who their ruler is,” the sultan said.

“Since when is JKR (the public works), whether at state or
district level, being put in charge of religious matters? Their main job is to
make sure the roads are properly maintained and not worry about women’s hair.
It is not the business of government departments to worry about people’s
dressing. Just do what you are paid to do and mind your own business,” Sultan Ibrahim
said.

Sunday, September 24, 2017

US President Donald J. Trump’s targeting of a two-year-old
agreement curtailing Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons could not only
spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, but also tilt European-Chinese
competition for domination of Eurasia’s future energy infrastructure in China’s
favour.

As Mr. Trump keeps the world in suspense
by declining to disclose how he intends to correct what he calls an
embarrassment, Iranian leaders are betting against the odds that European
signatories of the nuclear agreement will persuade him to stop short of pulling
out of the nuclear deal and avoid steps that would effectively undermine the
accord.

In doing so, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is relying on
common interests with Europe: a desire to keep the deal in place, prevent
Iranian hardliners from getting the upper hand in his country’s power
struggles, avoid a nuclear arms race, and ensure a European role in shaping the
future architecture of Eurasian energy.

However, if Mr. Trump’s record is anything to go by, he is
unlikely to heed European calls for keeping the nuclear deal in place, much
like he ignored pressure from Europe and others not to pull out of the Paris
climate accord.

A more likely scenario is that Mr. Trump will refuse to
certify Iranian compliance with the deal by October 15, a quarterly requirement
mandated by Congress. That would open the door to Congress re-imposing
secondary sanctions lifted as part of the nuclear deal.

Renewed secondary sanctions would put Europe in an
impossible position. They would not only put European companies and banks at
risk of running afoul of US law if they continued to do business with Iran, but
also unleash consequences that could significantly increase tension in the
Middle East and ripple across Eurasia.

De facto European compliance would significantly weaken the
agreement’s value to Iran, boost pro-Chinese Iranian hardliners opposed to the
deal and eager to free Iran from restrictions on its nuclear program, risk a
nuclear arms race in an environment in which the US is losing out in the Middle
East’s quest for nuclear energy that contains tacit building blocks for
programs to develop nuclear weapons, and potentially tilt Iran towards China in
determining the flow of its natural gas – a key factor in the quest to shape the
future architecture of Eurasian energy.

“If the United States leaves the treaty and Europe follows,
then this deal will certainly collapse and Iran will go back to what it was
before and, technically speaking, to a much higher level,” said Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy
Organization.

The United States may be unprepared for the fallout of Iran
pursuing an unfettered nuclear program, beyond its ability to tighten the
economic screws, wield military power, and support potential efforts to destabilize
Iran in a bid to achieve regime change.

A
group of former senior US government and military officials recently warned
that the United States in the absence of a strategy to promote the peaceful use
of nuclear energy was lagging behind China and Russia in helping Middle Eastern
states develop programs of their own. The officials cautioned that Mr. Trump’s failure
to articulate a policy undermined “Washington’s ability to shape the highest
standards of non-proliferation safeguards, safety, and security.”

Noting that “the Middle East is in the process of going
nuclear,” the officials went on to say that “the big question is whether the
nuclearization of the region will be dominated by Russia and China, or by the
host countries in partnership with the United States and its allies under a
proven program that ensures absolute safety, security and standardization throughout
the nuclear fuel cycle.”

Most Middle Eastern states are signatories to the
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). They have disavowed the pursuit of nuclear
weapons and called for a nuclear-free zone in the region in a bid to force
Israel to declare its nuclear weapons and join the NPT and at the same time
avert a nuclear arms race with Iran.

Saudi cooperation with nuclear power Pakistan has
nonetheless long been a source of speculation about the kingdom’s ambition.
Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani, asserted
that Saudi Arabia’s close ties to the Pakistani military and intelligence
during the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s gave the kingdom arms’
length access to his country’s nuclear capabilities.

The Washington-based
Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said earlier this
year that it had uncovered evidence that future Pakistani “assistance would not
involve Pakistan supplying Saudi Arabia with a full nuclear weapon or weapons;
however, Pakistan may assist in other important ways, such as supplying
sensitive equipment, materials, and know-how used in enrichment or reprocessing.”

The report said it was unclear whether “Pakistan and Saudi
Arabia may be cooperating on sensitive nuclear technologies in Pakistan. In an
extreme case, Saudi Arabia may be financing, or will finance, an unsafeguarded
uranium enrichment facility in Pakistan for later use, either in a civil or
military program,” the institute said.

Rather than embarking on a covert program, the institute
predicted that Saudi Arabia would, for now, focus on building up its civilian
nuclear infrastructure as well as a robust nuclear engineering and scientific
workforce.

This would allow the kingdom to take command of all aspects
of the nuclear fuel cycle at some point in the future. That process could
accelerate if US actions undermine the nuclear agreement with Iran.

Saudi Arabia has in recent years significantly expanded
graduate programs at its five nuclear research centres as part of a $100
billion program to build 16 nuclear reactors by 2030.

Saudi King Salman earlier this year signed an agreement with
China on cooperation
on nuclear energy. The agreement is for a feasibility study for the
construction of high-temperature gas-cooled (HTGR) nuclear power plants in the
kingdom as well as cooperation in intellectual property and the development of
a domestic industrial supply chain for HTGRs built in Saudi Arabia.

The agreement was one
of number nuclear-related understandings concluded with China in
recent years. Saudi Arabia has signed similar agreements with France, the
United States, Pakistan, Russia, South Korea and Argentina.

Lurking in the background of the battle for the future of
the Iranian nuclear agreement is an unrelated but no less important issue: the
future of Eurasia’s energy architecture. US efforts to undermine the deal and
de facto European compliance with US sanctions could push Iran to favour China
rather than Europe in allocating its estimated surplus over the next five years
of 24.6 billion cubic metres of natural gas. Iran boasts the world’s second
largest natural gas reserves and its fourth largest oil reserves.

“Not enough to supply all major markets, Tehran will face a
crucial geopolitical choice for the destination of its piped exports. Iran will
be able to export piped gas to two of the following three markets: European
Union (EU)/ Turkey via the Southern Gas Corridor centring on the
Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), India via an Iran-Oman-India
pipeline, or China via either Turkmenistan or Pakistan. The degree to which the
system of energy relationships in Eurasia will be more oriented toward the
European Union or China will depend on the extent to which each secures Caspian
piped gas exports through pipeline infrastructure directed to its respective
markets,” said energy
scholar Micha’el Tanchum.

The lifting of international sanctions as part of the
nuclear agreement gave Iran a vested interest in deploying its energy wealth in
ways that would allow it to balance its relations with China and Europe. A
Europe incapable of developing economic ties with the Islamic republic, including
the expansion of pipeline infrastructure, could undermine Iran’s calculus to
China’s benefit.

Friday, September 22, 2017

Saudi Arabia's 85th birthday could prove to be
historic -- one that could put to the test opposition to Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman's reform plans, even if he has cracked down on potential critics in
recent weeks.

To accommodate the kingdom’s strict gender segregation,
sections of the stadium are being delineated into sections for men and for
families, much like what happens in other public spaces. The notion that if
women can attend national day celebrations, they can also watch soccer matches
will strengthen the hand of long-time proponents like the head of the Saudi
Arabian Football Association (SAFF), Ahmed
Eid Al-Harbi, of a lifting of the ban.

The move knocks down a psychological barrier even if
it is primarily designed to project the kingdom in a more favourable light amid
fierce criticism of its human rights record and conduct of the war in Yemen and
to promote Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reform agenda of greater economic
diversification and greater social freedom.

Granting women access to the stadium also constitutes
a testing of the waters. Prince Mohammed’s proposed reforms, articulated in his
Vision 2030 plan, have largely been
welcomed by Saudi youth, who account for more than 50 percent of the
population, but criticized by religious hardliners.

Prince Mohammed’s popularity rides on expectations
that his reforms will produce jobs and loosen social restrictions that he has
yet to fulfil. His reforms involve a unilateral rewriting of Saudi Arabia’s
social contract that amounted to a cradle-to-grave welfare state in exchange
for surrender of all political rights and acceptance of Wahhabism’s strict
moral codes.

Many Saudis have vented their frustration and anger on
social media, the one space in which the kingdom until recently tolerated a
limited degree of criticism. In one instance, Saudi writer Turki Al Shalhoub,
who has 70,000 followers on Twitter, tweeted in April a cartoon showing
Saudis being crushed under newly imposed taxes. He referred to prince
Mohammed’s plan as “the vision of poverty.”

Grumbling and online protests persuaded the government
in April to roll back some of its austerity measures and restore most of the
perks enjoyed by government employees.

“The problem is that Vision 2030 has become synonymous
with cutting salaries, taxing people and stop-ping beneﬁts,” said Mark C. Thompson,
a Middle East scholar at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, who
conducted a survey
of young Saudi men.

Ultra-conservative backlash has pockmarked every bend
of Prince Mohammed’s path. Saudi Arabia’s Middle East Broadcasting Center Group
(MBC Group), owned by Waleed bin Ibrahim Al Ibrahim, scion of a family with
close ties to the Al Sauds, was forced to
revoke and apologize for a campaign aimed at empowering women. Some viewers
called for a boycott of MBC.

A crackdown
in recent weeks on the prince’s potential critics, involving the arrest of
scores of popular Islamic scholars, academics, intellectuals and judges, and
the dismissal
of university staff believed to support the Muslim Brotherhood, makes it
easier for Prince Mohammed to test the waters.

To maintain support for his agenda, which is as much
designed to initiate badly needed economic and social change as it is intended
to prevent any form of political liberalization, Prince Mohammed has in recent
weeks employed two strategies: using soccer to boost his image in a
football-crazy country, and building an entertainment industry in a kingdom in
which concepts of fun were long frowned upon, if not banned.

Sports is a key pillar of Vision 2030 as part of a bid
to improve health in a country that has some of the world’s highest obesity and
diabetes rates.

In line with a long-standing practice of Arab
autocrats to hitch their popularity to their country’s soccer success, Prince
Mohammed earlier this month granted fans, men only, free
access to the stadium to attend a World Cup qualifier against Japan. Prince
Mohammed made sure that he was in the stadium to witness the national team’s
success.

The sensitivity involved in granting women access to
the stadium for the national day celebrations became evident when a imam was
criticized for describing Saudi Arabia’s defeat of Japan that paved the way for
the kingdom’s participation in the 2018 World Cup as a blessing
from God.

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly in the last five tears
floated the notion of granting women access to stadiums, only to drop the idea
because of hard-line religious opposition. In bowing to pressure from the
International Olympic Committee (IOC) to allow women to compete in Olympic
games, the kingdom fielded women athletes for the first time in 2012. It has
since said that women would only be allowed to compete in disciplines mentioned
in the Qur’an.

In a bid to cater to aspirations of Saudi youth, the
government announced that it was investing
$2.7 billion in the creation of an entertainment industry in a country that
bans cinemas and theatres. As part of the initiative, the government plans to
build beach resorts, hotels and residential units on about 160 kilometres of
sandy coastline on the Red Sea. It was not clear whether the region would adopt
more liberal social codes on issues such as women’s dress.

"By the end of 2030, the company's projects aim
to serve more than 50 million visitors annually and create more than 22,000
jobs in the Kingdom, which will contribute around 8 billion Saudi Riyals ($2
billion) to the GDP," the state-owned Saudi Press Agency said.

The kingdom’s religious establishment has repeatedly criticised
Prince Mohammed’s social liberalization effort, including introduction of
modern forms entertainment, but largely endorsed his economic plans.

A 24-year-old speaking earlier this year to The
Guardian, noted that ultra-conservatism maintain a hold on significant
numbers of young people. “You know that the top 11 Twitter handles here are Salafi
clerics, right? We are talking more than 20 million people who hang on their
every word. They will not accept this sort of change. Never,” the youth said

Prince Mohammed’s crackdown is likely to pre-empt any
criticism of women entering the stadium for national day. That, however, simply
pushes criticism out of the public eye. If anything, the crackdown suggests
that Prince Mohammed feels less confident and reverts to Arab autocratic tradition:
repress rather than engage.

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile