NDP poll strength recasts Dutch disease from gaffe to gameplan

Thomas Mulcair’s Dutch disease comments are starting to look less like a gaffe and more like a strategic shift for the NDP that could pay dividends down the road, says pollster Nik Nanos.

In Nanos Research’s latest survey of party preferences there was one big question, Nanos said: Would Mulcair’s argument that Canadian manufacturing was suffering at the hands of an oilsands-inflated loonie haunt him in the polls?

“Looking at the numbers, it’s pretty clear that there’s not significant blowback,” Nanos said in a phone interview with iPolitics. “For the New Democrats, you have to be pretty happy.”

Far from dragging NDP support numbers down, the survey, which was conducted in the week following Mulcair’s comments, is the first time Nanos data gave the NDP a numerical — if statistically insignificant — advantage over the Conservatives.

Nationally, the poll indicates 33.6 per cent of committed voters now back the official Opposition, with 33.5 per cent in favour of the governing party. The Liberals came in at 24.9 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 3.4 per cent and the Green party at 2.4 per cent. While only the New Democrats and Liberals grew in support over their April numbers, the shifts were well within the margin of error.

Breaking the strategic mold

While many were quick to call Mulcair’s comments a gaffe, Nanos said they should be seen as part of a longer-term plan that has broken the NDP’s strategic mold. Whereas past NDP policies looked to appeal to a broad swath of Canadians, Mulcair seems ready to “take a page from Harper” and focus on segments that he has a chance to bring on side.

“Let’s focus on a group of Canadians that we can convert, and let’s target them,” Nanos explained.

For the NDP, he said, that group is a combination of Canadians who are unhappy with Harper’s direction on the environment and those whose job prospects could be suffering. All of which, the NDP is looking to lay at Harper’s feet.

“If you’re not happy about the environmental effects of the oilsands, it’s Stephen Harper’s fault. If you’re not happy because … you lost your job, it’s Stephen Harper’s fault.”

The strategy seems to be working in the short term. NDP support has been growing steadily in Quebec, Ontario and even British Columbia. The only place where the party has seen a significant drop in the last month — 5.7 percentage points — is in the the prairie provinces where resources from the oilsands to potash rule economic fortunes.

Lagging on leadership

It’s not all good new though. Nanos’ numbers suggest Mulcair’s personal brand has yet to take hold with Canadians. While the party’s fortunes rose at the end of May, Mulcair’s personal approval dropped.

The Nanos research survey asked respondents to measure the leaders on three criteria: which leader has the best vision for Canada; which is the most trustworthy; and which is the most competent. On all three measures, Mulcair lagged well behind Stephen Harper.

“Looking at the leadership numbers, you have to be concerned,” Nanos said, before adding that it’s hard to read the Dutch disease comments’ effects on the volatile leadership numbers.

“(Mulcair’s) a new leader and people still haven’t passed judgement on him,” Nanos said.

Wild card

There is also an important unknown in all this, Nanos warned. The NDP has, since the last election, benefited from a vacuum left by the Liberal party.

“One wild card in this is what will happen as the Liberals try get Canadians to focus on their leadership contest.”

With news that the Liberal party’s executive board is set to rule next on whether they’ll allow Bob Rae to run, that card is set to be played.

The survey of 1,201 people was conducted between May 26 and 31, 2012. Numbers based on 1,006 committed voters is accurate to withing 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.