Recent Posts

I do not get it. I do not understand why there is any talk of raising rates at all. Inflation isn’t just low, it’s freakishly low. Look at this chart, which goes back nearly 70 years: This chart goes back to January of 1947. The chart covers 68 1/2 years of U.S. inflation. Where are… Read More

Back when I was writing on currency trading for Agora Publishing in 2009-2010, I wrote dozens of articles about the Euro. Something to keep in mind when sorting through the debt problems is these problems are great for the German economy. Germany gets to export with a Euro valued far lower than it would be if… Read More

It’s rant time! Lars Christensen has written a must read rant on how bad the Euro has been for Europe: “Do you think we would have seen the kind of hostilities among European nations as we are seeing now? Do you think we would have seen the rise of political parties like Golden Dawn and Syriza… Read More

Negative Interest Rates and the Business Cycle The major way interest rates impact the business cycle is through stimulating or suppressing real estate. This is pretty clearly what happens if you look at the data in Ed Leamers paper Housing is the Business Cycle. Mr. Leamer says as much: “For long-run growth, residential investment is… Read More

A few years ago MR pointed out China was shifting to consumer driven demand, and that U.S. manufacturing was close to beating or outright beating China on price in manufacturing. These have now become more widely spread ideas, possibly even the dominant views on two of the trends in China. From Bloomberg: “The campaign to shift China… Read More