Saturday, February 11, 2012

Peyton Manning to the Redskins – Risk or Reward?

Everyone
has heard the talk—Peyton Manning will be a free agent very soon. And when
Manning becomes a free agent, he will arguably be the highest valued free
agent, perhaps ever.

But
before I get started on all of this, I want to make a few points perfectly
clear.

Peyton
Manning will not be returning to football if he’s unable to perform at a high
level that both he and the team feel is required in order to make a run at
Super Bowls. The first sign that Manning feels he’s not going to be able to do
that, he will file his papers for retirement. That’s just the competitor he is,
and the honest man he is.

Peyton
Manning did not break his neck. Peyton Manning had a degenerative issue in the
bone and nerves in his neck, causing a pinching of the unprotected nerve(s) and
a grinding of the vertebrae in his neck. The standard procedure for this injury
is typically to insert a steel plate/rods into the neck along with
bone-graphing, a procedure which has prolonged several athletes careers 4-5
years. Peyton Manning opted not to have the steel plate or steel rods inserted
into his neck, instead had the bone-graphing and a stem cell treatment which
was used to both stop the degeneration of the fat around the nerve(s) and the
bones, and the reverse the degeneration and regenerate. Contrary to beliefs
that Manning needed the last surgery to further stop degeneration, the problem
was that regeneration had started but not finished. Manning’s vertebrae are
healed, and he’s now waiting on nerve regeneration, which doctors assume will
be complete soon. Manning being hit is at no greater risk of paralysis or
life-threatening injury than any other player in the National Football League.

Okay,
now that we’ve got that out of the way…

It’s
no stretch of the truth that everybody has an opinion on Peyton Manning’s
future right now. It’s currently the most talked about topic in sports. It even
overshadowed the week leading up to the Super Bowl, and Eli Manning was asked
more about that (not really, but may as well have been) than he was the game
itself.

So,
what do I think of Peyton Manning coming to the Redskins?

I
think it is a genius move. Peyton Manning is a record 4-time NFL MVP, a Super
Bowl champion, a Super Bowl MVP, and holds many league passing records, and is
the closest to threatening most of Brett Favre’s records. Peyton Manning is
widely regarded as the greatest regular-season quarterback in the NFL, and the
knocks he receives for his playoff performances, I don’t give credence to,
because playoff games are won with a run game and defense, something the Colts
clearly don’t have. Many weaknesses on the team were exposed without Peyton
Manning there, and it became more and more apparent that he truly is the MVP of
his team, if not the entire league in general.

So
would Manning fit with the Washington Redskins in the Shanahan’s scheme? Yes.

Peyton
Manning isn’t the most mobile guy ever, but he’s always looked to pass first.
He’s not fast, I won’t even begin to act like he is, but you don’t need speed
to be successful in Shanahan’s offense. Rex Grossman isn’t fast, he’s not a
threat to run, and Shanahan didn’t use much of the bootleg with Rex Grossman,
yet Grossman was able to look somewhat competent in this scheme. What Grossman
lacks outside of speed, Manning possesses at the highest level possible. And
Manning CAN run the bootleg, because the bootleg is a product of a good run
game which the Redskins appear to finally have, which draws a defense away from
the quarterback’s bootleg side. Nonetheless, there are no rules specifying that
the Shanahan’s have to run the bootleg. Furthermore, Mike Shanahan prefers the
bootleg to mask a weakness in the pocket and expose a defense; Peyton Manning
has no weakness in the pocket and exposes the defense well enough on his own.

Peyton
Manning is as aware in the pocket as any quarterback in the NFL, and has as
good of footwork in the pocket as anyone in the league. Manning is also argued
one of the best decision makers in the history of the league, Rex Grossman is
among one of the worst. Point being? Where Rex Grossman struggled this year,
Peyton Manning will shine. And anything Rex can do good, Peyton can do best.
The Redskins lost a handful of games by a score, or a play, with Rex Grossman.
Peyton Manning wouldn’t have lost those handful of games, and would have been
competitive in a few more of them. The Redskins also have a defense which
battles and can keep teams from scoring, Peyton Manning can outscore most teams…
it’s a win/win in terms of both phases of the game.

On
to the run game. The staple of Shanahan’s zone-blocking offense, is the stretch
run. Peyton Manning ran the stretch run for a number of years in Indianapolis
and was very disappointed when the team let Edgerrin James go and removed the
stretch run from the playbook. Bringing back that familiarity to Manning, with
a run game that can limit the amount of plays he is personally taking hits,
would be ideal for Peyton.

Do
I believe both sides are destined to be together and a perfect fit? No. Could
they be? Sure. Are there concerns? Of course.

Any
neck injury is serious, despite the points I made earlier. Not just physically,
but mentally as well. This issue did start with an injury that went untreated
and eventually got worse. That can happen again, and the rate of degeneration
this time could be serious. We also don’t know exactly what the stem cell
treatment that Peyton Manning had will do and how he will react to the numerous
tolls his body will take this season.

Peyton
is 36 years old, and that may limit him. Many think he could play 3-5 more
years if his health is somewhere he’s extremely comfortable. If he’s at 100%, I’d
lean more towards the 5 years, if less, it could be 3 or less.

Signing
Peyton could mean you don’t go young at quarterback, which means you have to
make that decision later when, theoretically, you could be a playoff or Super
Bowl team, meaning your chances at landing a top pick don’t exist. There’s the
possibility you could still go for your young guy this year even if you sign
Manning. Tannehill needs to be on the bench for a couple seasons, so having him
behind Manning would be wise, he’d learn from the best on how to prepare for
the game. A guy like Robert Griffin III could still be in the mix as well if
the Redskins are still willing to offer the farm for him. He is on record as
saying he’d love to learn behind Peyton Manning, whether that be for 1 year or
more, I don’t know.

But
for now, all we can do is speculate. This is Peyton Manning we’re talking
about, not Donovan McNabb. Again, Peyton will not play if his body cannot
handle it. Mentally, he’s going to prepare for every game, which is one of the
knocks against McNabb. If Manning is healthy, I don’t know that you can take a
chance in not pursuing him.

You
do still run the risk of being outbid for Robert Griffin III as well, and I
maintain that any quarterback after he and Andrew Luck is a massive project who
needs a couple years on the bench, so you would need a veteran anyways. As this
plays out, the picture should become more clear, or perhaps more clouded. One
thing is for certain, Washington has their share of opportunities to find
someone to help them compete and win, whether in the short-term, mid-term, or
long-term.