Saturday, October 5, 2013

I haven’t
been writing much lately, but definitely not for lack of things to talk about.
In fact, now there are too many things to talk about. I honestly don’t even
know where to pick up from, so this post will be more a general consideration
than a detailed account of events.

Over the
last weeks, we have seen the uncontested protagonist of Italian politics,
Silvio Berlusconi, threatening (again) to withdraw his support to Enrico
Letta’s executive.

Enrico Letta & Silvio Berlusconi

The reason
why Berlusconi claimed he would leave the coalition was, supposedly, a fight
over IVA (the Italian VAT, “value added tax”). After celebrating his victory
following the abolition of IMU (see http://italianfactsrd.blogspot.it/2013/08/berlusconis-party-celebrates-abrogation.html), Berlusconi piled on it by stating that he would
not tolerate an IVA increase. Too bad that Letta’s government, after giving in
on IMU, noticed that they were still in need of tax revenue. So rumours about
an IVA increase became more and more sound (and it is actually in place now).

At some
point, Letta
openly said that he would ask Parliament for a confidence vote, because he was
not going to waste his time if he did not enough support.

Berlusconi
took the IVA excuse to blackmail Parliament one more time. This whole argument
in fact originated because Berlusconi, following a definitive jail sentence
for tax fraud, is facing expulsion from the Senate. The dedicated Senate commission
had already voted once in favour of his decay. What Berlusconi was clearly saying
was “Either you save me, or I will end your government”. That’s just how much
blackmail potential he still has (and this is without a doubt the worst aspect
of a grand coalition in Italy).

So, Berlusconi
said until the very end that he would deny the confidence. But when the actual vote
took place, last Wednesday, it was pure chaos. He insisted in voting no. But
then, and this is a real unprecedented episode, his party divided on the
subject: a faction led by secretary Angelino Alfano claimed that they would
vote in favour of Letta despite what Berlusconi said. The party held a meeting
and, after a morning spent going back and forward, Berlusconi eventually
announced that they would vote “yes” in the confidence vote.

So, in the
end, the government is still there, still potentially
blackmailed by the same person. To quote a famous line from the Italian movie
“Il Gattopardo”: “Everything must change, so that everything can stay the
same”.

However,
something that I found shocking actually happened this time: The People of
Freedom did not stand blindly by Berlusconi’s side, for once. Both Berlusconi’s old party Forza Italia and the current People of Freedom are the
perfect example of a 100% personalized party: they simply could not exist without him. And yet, this time something went
differently. Either they reconcile, or the party will probably split into those
remaining loyal to the leader and those going on to form a new group.

And finally:
as expected, yesterday morning the Senate commission voted again in favour of
Berlusconi’s decadence from his senatorial title. Now, for what I understood,
he will face a vote from the whole Senate. We are all waiting to see if at
least something will change, this time.