Afternoon Report

CBS.MarketWatch.com

LIVESTOCK:

DAILY DRESSED BEEF OUTLOOK

03/16/99 PM: NOON CUTOUTS RANGED FROM DOWN 3 TO UP 14 CENTS AND SALES WERE LIGHT. TRADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOW WEDNESDAY. OFFERINGS WILL START TO BECOME BURDENSOME FOR PACKERS AND PRICES UNDER PRESSURE. BUYING INTEREST AND SALES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT LOWER PRICES. HOWEVER, SALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE AT BEST AS BUYERS NEEDS WILL REMAIN MODEST. RETAIL BEEF PROMOTIONS WILL BE ONLY FAIR AND GENERALLY SCANT NEXT FEW WEEKS. CUTOUTS WEDNESDAY WILL CLOSE STEADY TO LOWER. SLAUGHTER ESTIMATE: 127,000.

DAILY FED CATTLE OUTLOOK

03/16/99 PM: NO CASH SALES REPORTED THIS MORNING AS CATTLE FEEDERS MAINTAIN ASKING PRICES MOSTLY 1-2 DOLLARS HIGHER THAN WEEK AGO. PACKER BIDS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY, GENERALLY 64 AND 102 DOLLARS, AT LEAST TO START THE DAY. PACKERS ARE LIKELY TO RAISE BIDS TO 65/104, POSSIBLY 66 DOLLARS AND 105 DOLLARS ON A FEW PENS. SALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT YET AT NOON BUT LIKELY STARTED. IF SO, AFTERNOON SALES WILL BE MODERATE AND PRICES WEAK. CORNBELT: 65-66/104-105 KANSAS: 65-66 TEXAS: 65-66

DAILY FEEDER CATTLE OUTLOOK

03/16/99 PM: FEEDER CATTLE MARKET WEDNESDAY WILL BE STEADY TO 2 DOLLARS LOWER. RECEIPTS AT SOUTH PLAINS AUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE AUCTIONS IN THE NORTH PLAINS AND CORNBELT MAINTAIN MODERATE OFFERINGS. PRIMARY PRICE WEAKNESS REMAINS ON THE HEAVIER WEIGHT YEARLINGS. LIGHTER FEEDERS AND CALVE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG BUYING INTEREST. LAST WEEK'S SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PLAINS PROVIDED MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE FOR PASTURES. PLAINS: 68-74 CORNBELT: 69-78

DAILY HOGS/PORK OUTLOOK

03/16/99 PM: HOG TRADING WEDNESDAY WILL BE WEAK TO 1 DOLLAR LOWER. PACKERS WILL BE STARTING WITH A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF WEDNESDAY KILL NEEDS ALREADY BOUGHT AND WILL BE LOOKING FOR THURSDAY-SATURDAY NEEDS. HOG MOVEMENT WILL MODERATE SOME COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK BUT SHOULD BE FULLY ADEQUATE. PORK OFFERINGS WILL BE LARGE AND PRICES GENERALLY WEAK TO LOWER. BUYING INTEREST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR TO GOOD AND SALES MODERATE. SLAUGHTER ESTIMATE: 382,000 WI CARC: 25-32.50 WT: 23.50-24.50 EI CARC: 25-34 ET: 23-24

DAILY TECHNICAL COMMENT

APRIL LIVE CATTLE: FIRST SUPPORT 66.31, SECOND 65.54. FIRST RESISTANCE 67.08, SECOND 67.85. JUNE LIVE CATTLE: FIRST SUPPORT 64.15, SECOND 63.65. FIRST RESISTANCE 64.65, SECOND 65.15.

APRIL FEEDERS: FIRST SUPPORT 71.16, SECOND 70.38. FIRST RESISTANCE 71.94, SECOND 72.27.

APRIL LIVE HOGS: FIRST SUPPORT 40.49, SECOND 39.62. FIRST RESISTANCE 41.36, SECOND 42.23. JUNE LIVE HOGS: FIRST SUPPORT 51.63, SECOND 50.18. FIRST RESISTANCE 53.08, SECOND 54.53.

MARCH PORK BELLIES: FIRST SUPPORT 49.53, SECOND 48.75. FIRST RESISTANCE 50.31, SECOND 51.09.

GRAINS:

DAILY CORN OUTLOOK

03/16/99 PM: MAY CORN FUTURES: CLOSE UP 1 CENT WEDNESDAY. TRADE EXPECTATIONS FOR MARCH 1 CORN STOCKS WILL BE 5,550 TO 5,730 MILLION BUSHELS VS. 4,940 MILLION BUSHELS LAST YEAR. IDEAS FOR ACREAGE WILL BE 77 TO 79 MILLION ACRES. A NEW CRP COULD ATTRACT SOME CORN ACRES, BUT CORN ACRES ARE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE. RAINS WERE BENEFICIAL IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN CORNBELT, BUT THE WESTERN HALF RECEIVED LESS MOISTURE. SOME IDEAS FOR THE ARGENTINE CORN CROP ARE LESS THAN USDA AT 14.5 MILLION TONNES. LAST YEAR'S CROP WAS A RECORD 19.4 MILLION TONNES, SO PRODUCTION THIS YEAR IS DOWN ABOUT 25 PERCENT. FED CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN CALLED AGRICULTURE A "SOFT SPOT" IN THE U.S. ECONOMY DUE TO SLOWER EXPORTS. THIS IS NOT NEWS TO FARMERS, BUT HE DID INDICATE AG EXPORTS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER WITH FOREIGN ECONOMIES.

DAILY SOYBEAN OUTLOOK

03/16/99 PM: MAY BEAN FUTURES: CLOSE UP 2 CENTS WEDNESDAY. TRADE EXPECTATIONS FOR MARCH 1 SOYBEAN STOCKS WILL RANGE FROM 1,450 TO 1,525 MILLION BUSHELS VS. 1,203 MILLION BUSHELS LAST YEAR. ACREAGE ESTIMATES WILL BE UNUSUALLY WIDE - FROM 74 TO 76 MILLION ACRES. A NEW CRP IS NOT LIKELY TO ATTRACT MANY BEAN ACRES, BUT IT COULD VIA LOSS OF DOUBLE CROPPING WITH WHEAT ACRES PLACED IN THE PROGRAM. SOME END USERS HAVE BEEN TAKING COVERAGE FOR OIL. AT 18 CENTS OR LESS, OIL IS AT LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 1987. BUYERS CAN CONTRACT CASH OR BUY CALLS AS A PROTECTION AGAINST HIGHER PRICES. NOW THAT HARVEST IS UNDERWAY IN SOUTH AMERICA, RAINS WILL DELAY HARVEST AND CAN EVENTUALLY RESULT IN FIELD LOSSES IF IT PERSISTS. IDEAS ARE THAT THE U.S. WILL ALLOW A WHEAT SALE TO IRAN. WILL OIL ALSO BE INCLUDED? NOPA FEBRUARY CRUSH WAS 125.1 MILLION BUSHELS VS. 133.9 MILLION BUSHELS IN JANUARY.

DAILY WHEAT OUTLOOK

03/16/99 PM: CHICAGO MAY FUTURES: CLOSE UP 2 CENTS WEDNESDAY AND KANAS CITY MAY FUTURES CLOSE UP 2 CENTS WEDNESDAY. A NEW SHORT-TERM CRP PLAN WILL BE INTRODUCED AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. WHO WOULD VOTE AGAINST IT? IDEAS ARE THAT UP TO 10 MILLION ACRES OF LAND WOULD BE IDLED 2-5 YEARS. THE MAJORITY OF THE LAND IDLED IS LIKELY TO BE WHEAT LAND. IDEAS FOR MARCH 1 WHEAT STOCKS WILL BE 1,425 TO 1,525 MILLION BUSHELS VS. 1,167 MILLION BUSHELS LAST YEAR. TRADE ESTIMATES FOR ALL WHEAT ACRES WILL BE 60.8 TO 63 MILLION ACRES VS. 65.9 MILLION ACRES LAST YEAR. ESTIMATES FOR OTHER SPRING WILL BE UNCHANGED TO DOWN 400,000 ACRES, WITH DURUMS UNCHANGED TO DOWN 300,000 ACRES. WINTER WHEAT ACRES WERE DOWN 3 MILLION ON SEEDED ACREAGE IN JANUARY, BUT WILL BE DOWN AGAIN BY THE FINAL. COLORADO WAS RATED 62 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS IS WARM AND WET.

DAILY COTTON OUTLOOK

03/16/99 PM: MAY FUTURES: UP 20 POINTS WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE LARGE STOPPER STOPPED ANOTHER 1,030 LOTS OF COTTON ON THE LAST DAY. A TOTAL OF 2,469 LOTS HAVE BEEN DELIVERED, WITH THE ONE STOPPER TAKING ALMOST 100 PERCENT. EXPECTATIONS FOR ACRES WILL BE WIDE - 13.4 TO 14.7 MILLION ACRES VS. 13.42 MILLION ACRES LAST YEAR. TOTAL SUPPLIES WILL INCREASE AS NEW CROP HARVEST BEGINS.

DAILY TECHNICAL COMMENTS

03/16/99 PM: MARCH BEANS: FIRST SUPPORT 4.69, SECOND 4.56. FIRST RESISTANCE 4.82, SECOND 4.95. JULY BEANS: FIRST SUPPORT 4.76, SECOND 4.55. FIRST RESISTANCE 4.97, SECOND 5.18.

MARCH MEAL: FIRST SUPPORT 129.33, SECOND 126.63. FIRST RESISTANCE 132.03, SECOND 134.73. JULY MEAL: FIRST SUPPORT 132.17, SECOND 129.17. FIRST RESISTANCE 135.17, SECOND 138.17.

MARCH OIL: FIRST SUPPORT .1822, SECOND .1757. FIRST RESISTANCE .1887, SECOND .1952. JULY OIL: FIRST SUPPORT .1869, SECOND .1796. FIRST RESISTANCE .1942, SECOND .2015.

MARCH CORN: FIRST SUPPORT 2.15, SECOND 2.11. FIRST RESISTANCE 2.19, SECOND 2.22. JULY CORN: FIRST SUPPORT 2.27, SECOND 2.24. FIRST RESISTANCE 2.31, SECOND 2.34.

MARCH WHEAT: FIRST SUPPORT 2.65, SECOND 2.58. FIRST RESISTANCE 2.71, SECOND 2.78. JULY WHEAT: FIRST SUPPORT 2.82, SECOND 2.76. FIRST RESISTANCE 2.89, SECOND 2.96.

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