Headlines – Week of November 13, 2011

November 18, 2011

Smith Travel Research Updates U.S. Hotel Forecasts

The U.S. hotel industry is expected to end 2011 with a 4.0-percent occupancy increase to 59.9 percent, a 3.6-percent increase in ADR to US$101.58, and a 7.7-percent increase in RevPAR to US$60.81. Supply in 2011 is forecasted to rise slightly (0.7 percent) and demand is expected to end the year with a 4.7-percent increase.

Smaller increases are forecasted in all three key performance metrics for year-end 2012, according to STR’s updated industry forecast.

The change in the forecast is a result of the continuing global economic uncertainty and the tougher year-over-year comparisons the industry will face in 2012.

In 2011, STR is forecasting a 4.0% occupancy increase to 59.9%, a 3.6% increase in ADR to $101.58, and a 7.7% increase in RevPAR to $60.81. Supply in 2011 is forecasted to rise slightly by 0.7% and demand is expected to end the year with a 4.7% increase.

While the past couple of years have been rife with tales of U.S. hotel foreclosures due to economic calamity, the thought was that the hotel recovery would be the anodyne needed to stem the tide.

According to Sonnenblick, the wave of commercial mortgage-backed securities needing replacement debt is going to be a close-to-catastrophic problem. He believes that the end result of all of this is “you’re going to see a huge increase of hotel foreclosures.”

According to Realpoint, the securities ratings firm owned by Morningstar Inc., approximately $21.7 billion in CMBS on 232 hotels is coming due in the next 12 months and need to be refinanced.

While the hotel industry has begun to recover, particularly in gateway cities, financing for new construction continues to be an impediment. Part of the problem is that the expectation that hotels will come on the market makes lenders skittish to lend.

Two Real Estate Reports Suggest Florida Rebound

Two recent national studies, one from Realtor.com and one from Truliasuggest that some Florida markets are poised for a real estate rebound.

In Realtor.com’s “Top Ten Turnaround Report,” six Florida cities were considered good bets for an upswing in sales. Realtor.com, which is owned by The National Association of Realtors®, says it created a formula to rank a city’s turnaround potential based on recent price appreciation, changes in inventory, median age of inventory, number of Realtor.com searches by visitors and area unemployment.

Realtor.com attributes the Florida cities’ success to year-over-year home price increases, reductions in inventory, lower unemployment rates and, in some cases, an upswing in international buyers.

Realtor.com’s turnaround list includes:

Miami: Ranked No. 1 in the report, Miami hit the top based on “a healthy inventory that is only half the size from a year ago,” a lower foreclosure rate than the national average, and an increase in condo sales.

Orlando: While No. 2, Realtor.com says Orlando had more home searches than any other city when compared to the total number of listings. It also had a significant drop in the number of foreclosures.

Sarasota-Bradenton: About one in 10 foreign buyers look in Sarasota-Bradenton for a home, Realtor.com says. Listing prices have increased and inventory has decreased.

Lakeland-Winter Haven: According to Realtor.com, the number of distressed sales has decreased significantly and prices have gone up.

Boise City, Idaho

Fort Wayne, Ind.

Ann Arbor, Mich.

Trulia recently debuted a new report that analyzed its home searches.

In one study, Trulia looked at the number of people who searched for housing in a city (including renters) and compared it to the number of city residents looking elsewhere for a home. An area with a high number of inbound searches and a low number of outbound searches suggests an increased demand for housing according to Trulia.

According to the study, the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota area had six times more searches by inbound people than outbound people, landing it in the list’s No. 1 position, but four other Florida cities also made the top 10 list:

North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC

Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach

Cape Coral-Fort Myers

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach

Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford

Trulia also looked at the Chicago and New York City markets to see where residents wanted to move.

Links

Meta

Our Philosophy

Our philosophy revolves around a simple goal - To achieve the objectives of our clients. Our plan is to introduce the necessary talents and resources to our clients and enhance their business goals and profitability