Friday, May 02, 2008

Last night the moderate risk issued by the SPC seemed to be spot on. As of this morning the SPC received 19 reports of tornadoes. Tornadoes were reported in Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma. I happened to catch a few minutes of the video taken in Oklahoma after the boys and I finished watching one of my favorite movies of all time, "Hoosiers". One of the tornadoes appeared to be large and was impressive looking as it was back-lit by lightning.

Today, the SPC has progged much of the Mississippi Valley for a moderate risk of severe weather. There may be a few significant (EF2 or greater) tornadoes today in places such as the eastern half of Arkansas, western Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi, and/or northern Louisiana.

Tomorrow things get interesting for those of us in the great state of Alabama. Almost the entire state has been under a slight risk since five days out. The latest outlook expanded the slight risk outward into surrounding states.

There may be two bands of storms. The first may come overnight tonight as the "leftovers" from today's severe weather to our west. This will probably be in the form of a line and may contain some heavy rain and strong storms. Depending on the timing of this initial band of storms, and how much the atmosphere can destabilize afterwards, Alabama may be in for a round of strong to severe storms tomorrow. If the sun comes out tomorrow morning the atmosphere will be much more likely to destabilize.

The factors I'll be watching include: the severity of today's storms in the moderate risk area, the timing of the first band of storms in Alabama overnight tonight, the ability of the air to destabilize tomorrow morning, whether we have sunshine or overcast skies tomorrow morning, the dewpoint, the amount of shear.

Here is an excerpt from this mornings AFD (area forecast discussion) by the NWS Birmingham:

EXPECT CONVECTIVE LINE TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST AROUND THISTIME TOMORROW MORNING. POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS LINE OFSTORMS IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION. EARLY MORNING TIMING WOULDSUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WOULD BE AT THEIR WEAKEST PART OF THELIFE CYCLE. BUT EVEN THEIR WEAKEST COULD MEAN VERY STRONG TOPOETNTIALLY SEVERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP/TRANSPIRE THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THEFIRST CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.GFS STILL SWEEPS THE RAIN RIGHT ON THROUGH AND BRINGS THE DRYAIR RIGHT IN BEHIND IT. THE NAM HAS THE RAIN OUTRUNNING THEFRONT...SO THATTHERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMREDEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WAS LOOSELYBASED ON THE GFS'S PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVERAIN BAND...BUT STILL KEPT OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NAM'SREDEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT WE DEAL WITH ON SATURDAY...BE THEY ALONG THEMAIN LINE OR IN A REDEVELOPMENT ZONE BEHIND IT...WILL HAVE TOBE WATCHED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. INSTABILITIES ARE FORECAST TOBE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUNCOMES OUT AT ALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWAOUTLOOK FOR SEVERE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEINGDAMAGING WINDS.

This is still severe weather season in Alabama. Every Alabamian should pay close attention to the weather during the next 36 hours!

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I have been posting about Alabama weather on this blog since April 2006. Here you will find my observations, information provided by the NWS, links to quality weather information from other sources, and historical weather data. Please "follow" me on Twitter and join my "fan" page on Facebook. Twitter and Facebook posts are usually more current/breaking news. I appreciate your visit. Enjoy and come back soon. Thank you!