Tadic and Nikolic face run-off as voters turn to nationalist party

Voters in Serbia on Sunday (6 May) punished the ruling Democrats (DS) of President Boris Tadic for the country’s economic difficulties.

The reformist DS, which had campaigned on a pro-EU platform, suffered a precipitous drop in support, slumping to 22.3% of votes cast, compared with 38% in 2008. It lost its position as the largest bloc in parliament to the opposition Progressive Party (SNS), with 24%. In the presidential vote, held the same day, Tadic was forced into an embarrassing (albeit widely expected) run-off against Tomislav Nikolic, leader of the SNS, which will take place on 20 May. In the first round, Tadic polled 26.7% to Nikolic?’s 25.5%.

The SNS has its roots in the radical nationalism that gripped Serbia in the 1990s under the country’s late leader, Slobodan Miloševic, although Nikolic has recast himself and the party as a modern populist force that in principle favours closer links with the EU.

The same applies to Miloševic’s old party, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), which emerged as the true winner of Sunday’s parliamentary election, almost doubling its support to 14.7%. This gives the SPS a blocking minority in parliament, and its leader, Ivica Dacic, is thought to harbour ambitions to become prime minister. The 45 seats that the SPS won in Serbia’s 250-member assembly might give him enough bargaining power to achieve that ambition and to form a government dominated by the Democrats, with their 68 seats. (The SNS won 73 seats.)

EU stance

A coalition government headed by Dacic but with the Democrats as the strongest element would probably mean little change on most policies, although some of the rhetoric, vis-à-vis the European Union and vis-à-vis Kosovo, might harden. Even under a President Nikolic, Serbia’s pro-European orientation would be unlikely to change.

Serbia has only a quasi-presidential system, and policy is set by the government, backed by a parliamentary majority, rather than by the president, even though recent practice has been for the president to come from the biggest party in the government.

The office of the president, many observers believe, might well become weaker regardless of who occupies it, because of the new constellation of forces in parliament.

Fact File

Results

Parliamentary election

Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) 24.0% 73 seats

Democratic Party (DS) 22.3% 68 seats

Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) 14.7% 45 seats

Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) 6.8% 20 seats

Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP) 6.7% 20 seats

United Regions of Serbia (URS) 5.4% 16 seats

Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM) 1.8% 5 seats

Presidential election, first round

Boris Tadic 26.7%

Tomislav Nikolic 25.5%

Ivica Dacic 15.3%

If a DS-SPS coalition is formed, the Democrats will remain Serbia’s main political force, but they will have to govern under stronger constraints from the Socialists, and from a strong opposition led by the SNS.

The EU should expect concessions to the economic populism shared by the Socialists and the Progressives, and a slowing of the economic reforms that Serbia urgently needs.