A high level of air pollution, in the form of particulates produced by burning coal, significantly shortens the lives of people exposed to it, according to a unique new study of China co-authored by an MIT economist.

The research is based on long-term data compiled for the first time, and projects that the 500 million Chinese who live north of the Huai River are set to lose an aggregate 2.5 billion years of life expectancy due to the extensive use of coal to power boilers for heating throughout the region. Using a quasi-experimental method, the researchers found very different life-expectancy figures for an otherwise similar population south of the Huai River, where government policies were less supportive of coal-powered heating.

“We can now say with more confidence that long-run exposure to pollution, especially particulates, has dramatic consequences for life expectancy,” says Michael Greenstone, the 3M Professor of Environmental Economics at MIT, who conducted the research with colleagues in China and Israel.

In China, particulate-matter levels were more than 400 micrograms per cubic meter between 1981 and 2001, according to Chinese government agencies; state media have reported even higher levels recently, with cities including Beijing recording levels of more than 700 micrograms per cubic meter in January. (By comparison, total suspended particulates in the United States were about 45 micrograms per cubic meter in the 1990s.)

Air pollution has become an increasingly charged political issue in China, spurring public protests; last month, China’s government announced its intent to adopt a series of measures to limit air pollution.

“Everyone understands it’s unpleasant to be in a polluted place,” Greenstone says. “But to be able to say with some precision what the health costs are, and what the loss of life expectancy is, puts a finer point on the importance of finding policies that balance growth with environmental quality.”

A river runs through it

The research stems from a policy China implemented during its era of central planning, prior to 1980. The Chinese government provided free coal for fuel boilers for all people living north of the Huai River, which has long been used as a rough dividing line between north and south in China.

The free-coal policy means people in the north stay warm in winter — but at the cost of notably worse environmental conditions. Using data covering an unusually long timespan — from 1981 through 2000 — the researchers found that air pollution, as measured by total suspended particulates, was about 55 percent higher north of the river than south of it, for a difference of around 184 micrograms of particulate matter per cubic meter.

Linking the Chinese pollution data to mortality statistics from 1991 to 2000, the researchers found a sharp difference in mortality rates on either side of the border formed by the Huai River. They also found the variation to be attributable to cardiorespiratory illness, and not to other causes of death.

“It’s not that the Chinese government set out to cause this,” Greenstone says. “This was the unintended consequence of a policy that must have appeared quite sensible.” He notes that China has not generally required installation of equipment to abate air pollution from coal use in homes.

Nonetheless, he observes, by seizing on the policy’s arbitrary use of the Huai River as a boundary, the researchers could approximate a scientific experiment.

“We will never, thank goodness, have a randomized controlled trial where we expose some people to more pollution and other people to less pollution over the course of their lifetimes,” Greenstone says. For that reason, conducting a “quasi-experiment” using existing data is the most precise way to assess such issues.

In their paper, the researchers address some other potential caveats. For instance, extensive mobility in a population might make it hard to draw cause-and-effect conclusions about the health effects of regional pollution. But significantly, in China, Greenstone says, “In this period, migration was quite limited. If someone is in one place, the odds are high they [had always] lived there, and they would have been exposed to the pollution there.”

Moreover, Greenstone adds, “There are no other policies that are different north or south of the river, so far as we could tell.” For that matter, other kinds of air pollution, such as sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxides, are spread similarly north and south of the river. Therefore, it appears that exposure to particulates is the specific cause of reduced life expectancy north of the Huai River.

Scholars say the paper is an important contribution to its field. Arden Pope, an economist at Brigham Young University and a leading researcher in environmental economics and air pollution, calls it “one of the most dramatic and interesting quasi-experimental studies on the health effects of air pollution that has been conducted.” At the same time, Pope observes, the results are “reasonably consistent” with other air-pollution research using different study designs.

Pope notes that while many air-pollution studies have occurred in the United States and Europe, “It is important to conduct studies in China and elsewhere where the pollution levels are relatively high.” Going forward, he suggests, it would also be desirable for researchers to look for ways to specifically study the health effects of fine particles, those less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter.

Greenstone notes that the researchers were not sure what result they would find when conducting their study. Still, he says of the finding, “I was surprised by the magnitude, both in terms of [the quantity of] particulates, and in terms of human health.”

Greenstone says he hopes the finding will have a policy impact not only in China, but also in other rapidly growing countries that are increasing their consumption of coal. Moreover, he adds, given the need to limit carbon emissions globally in order to slow climate change, he hopes the data will provide additional impetus for countries to think twice about fossil-fuel consumption.

“What this paper helps reveal is that there may be immediate, local reasons for China and other developing countries to rely less on fossil fuels,” Greenstone says. “The planet’s not going to solve the greenhouse-gas problem without the active participation of China. This might give them a reason to act today.”

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Editor's note

How you can help GeoIntel.Blog.4.Italian/SMEs ?In these uncertain times, GIB4I/SMEs makes sense of a complicated world providing our nation’s policy makers with accurate information and smart policy recommendations. Through research, education, investigative journalism, legal initiatives, and targeted communications campaigns, GIB4I/SMEsfights a war of ideas and turns ideas into actions that lead to positive results. We identify effective policies and promote them energetically to the policy community, opinion leaders and the general public. The GIB4I/SMEswebsite at https://geointelblog4italianpmi.com/ publishes news articles, commentary, background research and analysis on a broad range of issues, focussing on social, economic, strategic and environmental processes. Since May 2012, we have established an extensive archive of news articles, in-depth reports and analysis on issues which are barely covered by the mainstream media.In an era of media disinformation, our focus has essentially been to center on the “unspoken truth”. Emphasis has been placed on establishing a comprehensive archive of Global Research articles and audio-visual material.

Emphasis has been placed on establishing a comprehensive archive of Global Research articles and audio-visual material. The emphasis and focus has been placed on creating a complete archive of articles of global research and audio-visual materials serving small and medium-sized Italian companies to achieve the objective of making a " Italy National System " that since the time of the Roman Empire has always been in the throes of to anarchy and fratricidal wars for the benefit of the interests of foreign powers.

SincerelyMarcello Lopez

Marcello Lopez

Currently Partner KELONY™- Business Cindynics Enterprise.

Former External Relations and Advertising Head of SIP / STET Holding - Mobile Services Division and former External Relations and Advertising Headof Telecom Italia- Business Area , before the disastrous effects of privatization of what was the second largest company of TLC in Europe in terms of turnover in 1989 and the second or third mobile operator in the world.
Former Sales Manager of Publitalia '80 - Mediaset Group.Degree in Law with specialization in International and European community law.Specialization in Marketing at SDA Bocconi School of Management.Specialization in Marketing Telecommunications at High School of Telecommunications G. Reiss Romoli (L'Aquila), STET Holding. Strategic and Corporate Communications & Public Affairs Specialist

Privatly you can reach GeoIntel.Blog.4.Italian/SMEs by email at geointelblog AT gmail.com.Please be patient and allow reasonable response time.Thanks for your readership and participation at GeoIntel.Blog.4.Italian/SMEs.

Edward N. Luttwak

(English Version) "In fact, competition is everything. Now the world is divided into competitive municipalities, counties and nations. Those who act as he pleases do not realize that they are condemning their citizens to decline. I hope that you go ahead and recruit many. "Edward N. Luttwak Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

*Prof. Alessandro POLITI Director at NATO Defense College Foundation

"Marcello Lopezis more than an enthusiast (somebody that is already indispensable in these times of doom, gloom, ignorance and lack of focus), he is a realist working for change through a number of means, including a Geopolitics & Intelligence blog at the service of Italian SMEs (https://geointelblog4italianpmi.com/).

If somebody thinks that working in Italy's environment is like making easy money in the midst of the breathtaking beauty of Rome, he is obviously a daydreamer or an addict. Marcello is an information warrior and business intelligence apostle in a world of entrepreneurs that more often than not are totally unequipped for the juggernaut of globalization. He is a sharp professional with a dry and down to earth sense of life, things and markets."

*Prof. Alessandro Politi is a political analyst and strategic. In thirty years of professional activity has written a dozen books and numerous essays. He has done consulting for high-level government decision makers, parliamentarians, private and research institutions. Graduated in Military History, normalista, he served in the EMS and the WEU served as senior researcher at the Institut d'Etudes de Sécurité Paris. OSINT Italian pioneer in the world, most recently directed the Centre for Strategic and Security Scenarios Nomisma, providing, among other things, the economic crisis in 2006. He has taught and lectured in schools and universities on four continents. Recently, the Global Scenario Officer of Expert Italy, has completed a project on risk analysis for ENI. Partner with Claudia Bettiol and Partners - Energy Linkages.

The Italian production system is, as we know, 95% are SMEs ( Key link: http://wp.me/p2qWaW-fp) , of which a large part of export.
The era of the heroic, individualistic, Mr. Brambilla, with the briefcase in tow, traveled the world, placing its products is over. .
Today the competition is global and the player who has the strongest nation system behind wins.
Marketing is not enough anymore. The games have become larger and harder.

Analysts of Geopolitics and the Economic Intelligence experts are no longer just the prerogative of the State intelligence agencies but become crucial functions of the Corporate Strategy.

This is an enormous effort that can not be separated by a "Holy Alliance" - technically called PPP Public-Private Partnering - which involves the State Intelligence Agencies together and firmly coordinated with the Security Functions of the major public and private national groups for the benefit of throughout the Italian Network Business.

This effort has had its beginnings in 2008 and is continuing, we hope, with even greater commitment.

Many friends, esteemed professionals and experts in the field, comfort me with their experience and their authority to pursue this ambitious project.

The most enlightened of them, armed with this knowledge, as early as 2008, have begun to take steps in this direction, both on the government side is large Public and Private Enterprises.

I hope that the results will not delay to reach for the good of our country that needs to grow up and become a nation mature and aware of his rank in Europe and the world.

Personally, I see this work in friendliness with the cooperation and advice from the structures of our old friends Americans.

Paradoxically, I see more resistance from our European partners to make even a minimal effort to collaborate with us, given that Italy weak and submissive, remains a weak competitor in the balance of Europe.
While on the other hand, the American friends have everything to gain and nothing to fear, given the respective orders of magnitude, from a loyal ally and strong ties to the U.S. such as Italy.

I therefore conclude this introduction with the words of encouragement sent me by Professor N. Edwuard Luttwak in the final one of His last e-mail, however, in perfect Italian:
"In fact, competition is everything, now the world is divided between competitive municipalities, counties and states.
Those who act as he pleases do not realize that they are condemning their citizens to decline.
I hope you go ahead and recruit many.
Edward Luttwak "

Here this blog is born with this spirit.
The Editor would like contribute, in his infinite smallness,to the growth and spread this awareness in economic and industrial culture of the Nation.

Is urgently needed to create a National Integrated, without any leniency towards the Italian ancestral individualism and fatalism of its governing classes.