NATO-summit-politics-US,ANALYSIS

NATO-summit-politics-US,ANALYSIS
At NATO, Trump barks but strained alliance avoids bust up
By Adam PLOWRIGHT
Paris, July 12, 2018 (AFP) - Ahead of this week's summit of NATO countries
in Brussels, speculation mounted about what sort of Donald Trump would turn up
for the two days of talks about the military alliance.
Would it be angry, vindictive Trump who has a tendency to turn on the US's
historic allies in public and undermine NATO, the cornerstone of European
security for 70 years?
Or would he arrive ready to make a deal and put on a display of unity that
was desperately sought by his European partners after a disastrous meeting at
the G7 summit in Canada last month?
In the end, the US leader, who thrives on keeping both allies and enemies
off balance, was a combination of both.
His Twitter account buzzed with criticism of NATO -- "Very Unfair!", "Not
acceptable!" -- and he began with a blistering public attack on Germany, which
he accused of being "totally controlled" by Russia.
Both charges play well with Trump's conservative electoral base back home
in America.
"Trump is motivated by domestic politics, the mid-term elections (in
November) and his populist image," the head of the Schuman Foundation
think-tank in Brussels, Jean-Dominique Giuliani, told AFP.
But behind closed doors, European leaders suggested things had gone more
smoothly, particularly over dinner on Wednesday night when the 29 heads of
state and government in central Brussels.
"I read in the papers that everything depends on President Trump's mood.
Well, I can tell you he was in a good mood and he said that Europe was a
continent he appreciates," Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel told
reporters on Thursday morning.
This was echoed by others, including French President Emmanuel Macron who
was photographed smiling and sharing a hug with Trump on Wednesday despite
recent tensions between the two.
- Behind the bluster -
During the G7 summit in Canada in June, Trump clashed bitterly with his
Western partners behind closed doors over US tariffs imposed on steel and
aluminium imports.
At one point, he was reported to have thrown a handful of sweets towards
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, saying "here, Angela, don't say I never give
you anything".
The meeting ended with Trump insulting his host, Canadian Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau, as "dishonest and weak".
Despite fears of another bust up in Brussels, the NATO summit ended
Wednesday in what was neither harmony, nor the crisis some had feared.
Trump signed up to a joint declaration by NATO members and left the Belgian
capital claiming victory in having forced European states to increase their
spending.
"This was a fantastic two days. It all came together at the end. Yes, it
was a little tough for a little while," he said.
But Macron insisted that NATO members have simply recommitted to a previous
target of military spending, set in 2014, at a level of 2.0 percent of GDP.
They have also agreed to publish their plans to get there.
The joint declaration also recommitted all members to Article 5 of the
alliance which holds that an attack on one country is an attack on all of them
-- something Trump had raised doubts about.
"I believe in NATO," Trump told a news conference, denying rumours that had
spread through the press room that he had threatened to pull out of the
alliance during talks.
The joint declaration also included tough language on Russia and reiterated
NATO's position that it would never recognise Moscow's annexation of Crimea --
something some Europeans fear Trump might be reconsidering.
He is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday at their first
bilateral summit in Helsinki.
"The shared interests (of the European and Americans) are stronger than the
public statements and the tweets," added Giuliani of the Schuman Foundation.
Referring to Trump's focus on domestic politics, he said: "Beyond that, all
of the US industrial, strategic and diplomatic complex sees the benefit of the
alliance."
Tomas Valasek, director of the Carnegie Europe think-tank, also sounded
upbeat and said that a "a pattern has emerged".
Trump "uses these events to speak to home audiences. He's permanently
campaigning," Valasek wrote on Twitter, adding that NATO appeared to be "an
oasis amidst the wreckage of transatlantic cooperation".
But Francois Heisbourg, head of the The International Institute for
Strategic Studies, forecast a bleak future for the organisation because Trump
had undermined its credibility.
"Trump is not interested in a collective defence arrangement operated on
multilateral lines, that's the bottom line," he told AFP.
"NATO is like a zombie bank," he said.
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