Model’s predictive rules did not generalizeparticularly well to test sample

Results--Predicting 1998

Audit Recovery Band

Correct Band Predicted52%Prediction off by 1 Band28%Prediction off by 2 Bands19%Prediction off by 3 Bands1%“Results Positive but Modest…”

Conclusions/Lessons Learned

Due to a number of limiting factors, the predictivepower of the pilot model waspositive but modest.

As a learning experience the pilot was anunquestioned success. A great deal of technicalknowledge was acquired within the Department ina very short period of time. Some of the majorlessons learned are as follows: