And the winner is ... swing-state stocks

Swing-state stocks have done better than the broad market during President Obama's first term

Jack Ablin / BMO Private Bank

Swing-state stocks have done better than the broad market during President Obama's first term. That's based on the collective performance of companies either based in a swing state or do a lot of business there.

Swing-state stocks have done better than the broad market during President Obama's first term. That's based on the collective performance of companies either based in a swing state or do a lot of business there. (Jack Ablin / BMO Private Bank)

Swing-state stocks have outpaced the Standard & Poor’s 500 index during President Obama’s first term. That’s based on the collective performance of companies that are either based in a swing state or that do a lot of business there.

The S&P 500 has notched an average annual gain of 12.1% during the Obama administration. Every one of the nine battleground states that Ablin analyzed has fared better, ranging from 15.7% for Ohio to a whopping 59.1% for Nevada.

Nevada benefitted from big gains in gold-mining companies and a surge in Las Vegas Sands Corp. The next-best showings were Florida and Iowa, each up 29%.

The stock performance isn’t unexpected given that the economies of battleground states generally have fared better lately than the national economy as a whole.

Stock performance won’t have a significant effect on the election, but every little bit helps in a tight presidential election.

“If stock market returns influence elections, Obama will be helped,” Ablin wrote in a report to clients.