Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...

I also want to use this poll to reiterate my point: despite the tightening of the GCB, the individual race polls still signal a blue wave. Cruz winning by only single digits is a part of a Blue Wave.

Although I still believe in a blue wave I'd urge caution when trying to choose between individual race polls and the generic ballot. Remember in 2016 it was the individual race polls that were far off. The national polls were only off by a few points but that didn't matter since the polling for key swing states vastly overestimated Clinton.

Personally I believe things will break towards the Dems last minute. Nate's first rule of polling seems like it could come into play in 2018. Almost everybody is afraid to be bullish on Democrats after 2016 so we'll likely see it break in favor of Democrats if the rule is correct.

46% of people barely know who Beto is and Cruz is only leading by 7. He's far from "secure", especially when his favorable ratings are 42-44.

If democrats can win in places like North Dakota, West Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri Montana, Indiana, etc (all places where Trump did significantly better in than in TX), it's not hard to see why an unpopular & far-right dysfunctional senator like Ted Cruz can lose if conditions get a bit worse for Republicans.

Not that I think Texas is purple or anything (I am a huge doubter in the blue TX pipedream). I actually think dems only gain 1 house seat from TX. Only reason I think there's a chance republicans can lose is Ted Cruz is a godawful incumbent. Abbott is obviously going to safely cruise to reelection. But I can definitely easily see Ted Cruz being held down to less than a 5 point victory, especially when democrats are coming close to winning places like AZ-08 (a suburban district that voted +20 for every Republican in the past 50 years).

Of course O'Rourke has a fighting chance. He is running a great campaign and really putting up a fight against Lyin' Ted. But of course Wulfric will believe in his "unbeatable Cruz" religion.

how is mid-single digits for an incumbent 5 months before the election safe lmfao

Because Atlas believes an unpopular incumbent in a red-leaning state is Safe, an unpopular incumbent in a blue-leaning state (Nevada) is favored, and a popular incumbent in a red state (North Dakota) is DOA, in a blue year even.

I don't hold it against people who think Cruz is safe. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in TX in over 20 years, and even in traditionally GOP states that lean even more Republican (Dakotas), Democrats have had more success. Sometimes a lot, like ND. The point being that Democrats may be able to make inroads in the Texas electorate, but it'll probably be hard to secure those last half dozen points or so that they need to win.

I'm taking a "see it to believe it" approach to Texas, although it would be easier to buy into if Beto started leading in a bunch of decent polls in October.

I don't hold it against people who think Cruz is safe. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in TX in over 20 years, and even in traditionally GOP states that lean even more Republican (Dakotas), Democrats have had more success. Sometimes a lot, like ND. The point being that Democrats may be able to make inroads in the Texas electorate, but it'll probably be hard to secure those last half dozen points or so that they need to win.

I'm taking a "see it to believe it" approach to Texas, although it would be easier to buy into if Beto started leading in a bunch of decent polls in October.

This is (per usual with Virginia) the most sensible take, and more or less where I am too

I don't hold it against people who think Cruz is safe. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in TX in over 20 years, and even in traditionally GOP states that lean even more Republican (Dakotas), Democrats have had more success. Sometimes a lot, like ND. The point being that Democrats may be able to make inroads in the Texas electorate, but it'll probably be hard to secure those last half dozen points or so that they need to win.

I'm taking a "see it to believe it" approach to Texas, although it would be easier to buy into if Beto started leading in a bunch of decent polls in October.

Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...

There are a ton of things I love about Texas, having lived there for about five years until just recently....

One of the things that I don't love about Texas (Sorry Gary Nunn Country/Folk Native Texas Son song Rip-off quote--- love the artist myself) is how difficult it is to poll for General Elections....

Not only do you have over six major media markets that encompass some 80% of the population of Texas, but additionally you have tons of extremely complicated variables when it comes to weighing and modelling electoral turnout by region, race/ethnicity, demographic, "party affiliation", etc....

Additionally we have this additional variable when it comes to Midterm Election turnout among these various communities that represent the Great State of Texas.

Minority turnout in Texas in General tends to be significantly lower in off-year elections than Presidential Year Elections, especially among Latino Voters.

Compounding this problem is that working-class Latinos tend to vote overwhelmingly Democrat, but have much lower turnout levels than Middle-Class Latinos, whom tend to be much swingier in their voting preferences than working-class Latinos, although we started to recently change over the past few Federal General Election cycles....

I suspect that pollsters regardless of partisan lean are trying to use "typical off-year" GE modelling for the 2018 US SEN election to play it safe, and create a typical regional and social-demographic model, rather than jumping to conclusions about a hypothetical voting surge among various age and ethnic populations more likely to vote Democrat than a typical off-year election model.

If anything, this poll exposes the relative weakness of Cruz among a traditionally extremely favorable off-year electorate for a Republican Candidate in Texas....

We will have plenty more polls over the next few months on the state of the US-SEN TX race, but let's face it, Dems are going to be sinking some $$$ into Texas in the '18 GE, and this is a state with some pretty fast changing demographic, political, and cultural changes in the population centers where 80% of the population lives, even in an off-year election.