Refinery29 Handicaps The Super Bowl… Commercials

While some people in our offices know enough about football to offer more than an educated guess as to who will win Sunday’s Super Bowl XLVI (ahem), the majority of us know much more about talking animals and celeb cameos than we do about defensive sets and red-zone completion stats. So, instead of telling you if the New York Giants will top the New England Patriots in Indianapolis this weekend, we’re placing bets on winning commercials.

Audi "Vampire Party" – 50:1
In this day and age, are we really comfortable with ourselves using Twilight references to sell $60,000 automobiles to adults? We shouldn't be. Also, why would a vampire need a luxury car with leather seats and four-weel drive? Don't they just sprint or fly anywhere they need to go? This was not very well thought out.

Pepsi Max "Check Out" – 40:1
Simply put, as much as we loved Beth Littleford as a correspondent during the early days of the Daily Show, this sad pantomime of Kristen Wiig's SNL "Target Lady" is beneath her, us, the Super Bowl, and Pepsi Max.

Volkswagon "The Dog Strikes Back" – 20:1
Okay, watching a dog get in shape so it can chase cars is not only adorable, but the kind of strong message of personal responsibility and achievement our canines need right now. However, referencing Volkswagon's previous collaboration with Star Wars, seems tacked on, pointless, and a bit much – like an end-zone celebration dance involving costume changes and props.

Kia's yet unnamed spot – 12:1
So, this trailer (yes, they make trailers for commercials now) suggests that Adrianna Lima will be starring in a commercial for the Korean economy-car company, which is... good... right? Well, we can't call this one without seeing the final product, but let's keep our fingers crossed that Kia doesn't repeat the missteps of its recent Jennifer Lopez campaign – major fumble there.

Chevy Sonic "Needing/Getting" – 10:1
Again, another trailer. And this one promises visions of everyone's favorite viral acrobatic rock troupe, OK Go, barreling through a racing course of guitars and other musical obstacles (they were training on those treadmills for a reason, clearly). True, OK Go are the most technically adept team in contention here, and this spot should make for good water-cooler talk – but we're still a little wary. After all, these veterans are long past their winning season of 2006.

H&M/David Beckham “David Beckham Bodywear” – 8:1
As it always does, David Beckham’s body gives this ad an athletic edge against the competition and it's universally appealing, since everyone uses underwear (except those that don’t, but who wants to know them?). However, a good portion of any
Super Bowl audience is made up of people who don’t care what David Beckham looks like naked (hard to believe they exist, but it's true) and have already bought Michael Jordan’s boxer-briefs.

Acura "Transactions" – 6:1
Jerry Seinfeld has been a Super Bowl MVP in years past and, while this is one of his stronger efforts, we could have gone for a little more car and a little less comedy (what exactly is he selling again?). Nonetheless, the veteran player offers quite a few yuks before Jay Leno comes along and, as he always does, ruins everything. Pft... Leno.

Honda "Matthew's Day Off" – 5:1
It’s Ferris!!! Well, actually, no. But it’s as close to a sequel as you’re going to get in this life. Regardless of the fact that there’s little that’s cool about Honda’s CRV, this is the coolest Matthew Broderick’s been in a quarter of a century. The star quarterback here makes this ad a true contender. But with Ferris’ supporting players – Cameron, Sloane, Rooney – on the bench, we can't declare it a total lock.

Kinect Star Wars “Duel” – 3:1
A dark horse, to be sure, but replacing Alec Guinness in the role of Obi Wan Kenobi with Parks and Recreation's Chris Pratt in this advert for the Playstation Kinect’s new Star Wars game is inspired play calling. Though he looks quite different in his undies than Mr. Beckham, Pratt’s couch-surfing Jedi is our MVP and this simple ad is our projected champ.

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The trio, who read