Strong speculation of Texans taking running back in the first round? From whom?

The speculation that the Houston Texans will take a running back in the first round is strong, but as one general manager said, “Since when does Alex Gibbs ask for a first-round running back?” He wasn’t buying it.

Strong speculation? Does a few people picking a back at 15 in their mock drafts equal strong? Is this based on anything that he’s heard?

I don’t know. I just don’t see the Texans taking running back in the first round. And if they do, that running back better be the/a [insert whatever superlative word you prefer when somebody is excellent at what they do, you know the type of guy who could carry a wallet like Jules Winnfield’s].

[Update (5:50 pm): Right after I put this post up, Paul Kuharsky at the AFC South blog put up an interview with Gary Kubiak. This is what Kubiak says about the first round pick:

Our first-round pick has to have a big impact on our team. The more the first-round pick continues to be an impact player, the better we’re going to get. We could still use an impact player at linebacker and on the backend (but) we’d be hard-pressed to take a receiver or a running back in the first round.

Either that is a magnificent smokescreen or what it appears…Kubiak clearly stating what are obvious dire needs for the Texans. Hmmm, I’m not sure that it works for a coach to be that clear, even when everyone pretty much knows what the deal is for the Texans. Thanks to commenter JMay for bringing this up.]

If you look at various mock drafts, a number of good backs may be available at 15. (They were very much available in the most recent FanHouse mock draft y’all helped out with). But do you see the Texans taking one there? Do you think that there is worth at taking a back in that spot?

An argument against:

1. The Texans defense stinks so they need whatever defensive playmaker is available at 15.

2. Specifically, the Texans are thin thin thin at linebacker and quality linebackers who could make an immediate impact could be available at 15.

3. “Since when does Alex Gibbs ask for a first-round running back?” Whoever that GM is, he has a point. In a salary cap league of limited resources, running back in the first is a risk because of the opportunity cost of not picking a more durable position and a harder position to find quality in lower rounds. Gibbs has demonstrated that he can more than make-do with running backs chosen in lower rounds.

4. Steve Slaton is going to want to get paid. Is it going to make sense for the complementary back to be paid more than Slaton?

5. Slaton is going to get most of the carries. Do you really want to spend a first round pick on someone who is the helper guy back?

An argument for:

1. Just because Denver under Mike Shanahan didn’t traditionally get backs in the first round doesn’t mean that the Texans can’t. His offense worked the best when they had consistent running back play. If there is a game changing back that is available at 15, you should pick that best available player. The current Texans staff that was from Denver loved Clinton Portis and wish they could have kept him. He was drafted in the second round. First round picks are for acquiring playmakers, and at 15 maybe the best playmaker is a running back.

2. The Texans certainly have needs on defense. Does adding more young players to a young defense without working on developing the players you already have fix that defense?

3. And if you are more likely to get a game changing running back in the first round, that helps the defense too. Part of the turnover situation, last year in particular, was being in game plans where they had to throw the ball a lot because they were so thin at the running back position. The Texans reduced Slaton’s workload because he was injured, and when teams know you are passing the ball a ton, they don’t respect the run. Having a running back that can score consistently in the red zone also helps the defense by (duh) putting points on the board.

4. They said that Alex Gibbs could do well with linemen picked in lower rounds and he has. But the Texans also picked LT Duane Brown in the first round last year, despite the problems with the defense. So you can’t just look at the past to predict the present.

5. Running back is a thin position. You can never have too many quality backs. The Titans have built their team around hoarding running backs.

So do you think any of the running backs are worth taking at 15? How about trading down lower in the first and possibly taking a back there? Are the backs available in the first just so much better than what the Texans can find lower in the draft?

• • •

Speaking of running backs that some said might be too small to succeed in the NFL….

Above is a picture I took after last year’s Monday Night Football game. It is Steve Slaton posing with Emmitt Smith, his favorite player growing up. When they were posing, the fans started chanting “Steve Steve Steve” and then Steve Young jokingly thanked the crowd.

I was thinking along the exact same lines this morning when I saw it. I made a fanpost at BRB. Here’s what it said:

While sick at home and surfing the net desperately for NFL news, I came across this little tidbit from Pat Kirwin.

The speculation that the Houston Texans will take a running back in the first round is strong, but as one general manager said, “Since when does Alex Gibbs ask for a first-round running back?” He wasn’t buying it.

Wait… since when was there ever speculation that we’d take a back with our first rounder? Well, from anyone with sense that is. Am I missing something here? What speculation is Kirwan referring to, 7th page google mock drafts with little knowledge of teams?

I see no real reason for the Texans to truly indicate what positions they might be drafting. If the Texans don’t really believe in any of those linebackers or defensive backs as a pick at #15 and they are unable to trade down, they should just go for best available at any position other than quarterback (I don’t think that they would spend a #1 on a future starter at this point). That could be running back – they do need another one at some point.

Without revealing my omniscient understanding of the inner workings of the Texans organization, Please allow me to say right here and now, we will not draft a running back or wide reciever in the first round.

Now, people we can at last put this B.S. Rumor to rest.

The Houston Texans will draft for defense in round one!!! (If this suprises you, you may need to find a new hobby, bud.)

[Gary. Gary Kubiak. Is this you? (Actually, I don’t picture Kubiak being a big fan of the exclamation mark in his written correspondence. -S]

Stef. Your law background is showing up. Got to give you credit, your defense of picking a RB in first rounds is almost as good as OJ’s defense! If I need someone to create an argument on my behalf I’ll give you a call.

Nice try though!

Just messing with you, I truth though the Texans under Koobs and Smith have been very deliberate and thoughtful about their drafts. They have always made sense even if one didn’t agree with them. I don’t think they are going to brain dead now and just plain hog wild crazy and do something like that.

The fan base would have every right to go nuts. NO WAY THAT HAPPENS.

[If RB in the first round doesn’t fit, you must get players who hit. /got nuthin. -S]

Considering it might be draft strategy, do other teams think Kubiak saying it isn’t likely actually means just the opposite. Or maybe Kubiak wants other teams to think he means just the opposite. Or it may be a coded message to other extraterrestrials to begin the attack. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9It2mr5hP8

Blog or not, good writing matters and yours is excellent. Entertaining, fast paced. Filled with credible, timely information. Despite my rudeness in the past, I still take a peak at your blog. Maybe I’m wrong, but you really seem to love what you do. Other journalists have solid writing skills, but don’t come across with positive energy. You do. And, readers notice the difference.

College and professional football is the only way to go. The complete sport, football. It’s sad to hear that Michael Murphy is no longer with the Chronicle. He got under my skin a few times, still, he’s an excellent journalist.

Back to the Texans. With a few key additions, they can make the playoffs in 2009. Depth at running back is important. One pulled hamstring can stifle an offense unless there’s a worthy backup. I would still take the best available athlete, regardless of position. Good talent is hard to come by. So, when you see, get it.

I think I’ve blogged myself into oblivion. I’m sick of it. From “Believe Out Loud” to politics, enough is enough. It’s more fun to let others(professionals) do the work and just sit back and enjoy.

Bob McNair, to this day, still keeps his spirit of positivism. He seems to be from the “old school”. A true southern gentlemen. I’ve got to get out of here. Hide out till preseason, turn on the TV and watch the Texans do their damage.

And, don’t forget those Coogs. Coach Kevin Sumlin may help bring back the days of old, when the UH stood tall in the arean of college sports.

[Thank you. I’m not a journalist but I very much appreciate good journalists. We all have our gifts, and I believe that of of my gifts (curses?) is enthusiasm in abundance. The staffing cuts in sports and other sections of the paper hurt my heart. I love reading newspapers. Actual ones and online. I’m a breakfast person, and I love to read the newsprint newspaper with my breakfast. Back in the day, during Oilers training camp and on gameday Sundays and Mondays, I used to buy both the Chronicle and Post because I couldn’t get enough news. Makes me sad to see so many people go whose work on paper and behind the scenes I appreciate. Thanks for stopping by and commenting. -Steph]

this is honestly the most exiciting time of year for me besides the seaon opener. i mean there are so many directions the Texans could go with this one. I truly want our Defense too become a dominant force, so i would rather go Defense in the draft. But we all know that or rivals like the Titans and Jags like run the ball down teams throats. Thats why i feel we should match them with a one two combo of our own. We have somethin they never had and thats a Pro-Bowl wide out with Andre Johnson. If we establish the run early in games that opens up play action big time, and that puts us up there with our Nemesis the Colts. who knows…. Go Texans!!!

Steff the only RB I want on the 1st day is Donald Brown from UConn and he should be available after a trade down. But I doubt that happening so, what other position have they ignored more that is so important to the teams success. One stud LB is good 2 or 3 studs is best. We need to add quality to our LB group.

The Texans are trading back for additional picks…big draft names are definately falling to the Texans at 15 and a lot of teams want to be in that spot. I really like the idea of picking up a teams second round pick…say Philadelphia–they too have two first round picks and could easily want to trade up with the Texans and have the 15th and 21st or 28th pick and sitting pretty. The Texans can take one of Philly’s first round picks and their second.

Once again, this is just my opinion and it should not be taken seriously…worthless information is just that…worthless.

The off season moves have facilitated a flexible defensive draft. The Texans need to improve their defense to go to the next level, level also ran. It’s a general consensus that the best defensive linemen will be gone by pick 15. The Texans are thin at linebacker due to injury. They’ve got good enough cornerbacks and safeties. Other than another tailback, and an interior offensive lineman the Texans are set on offense. Johnny Holland is the linebacker coach and an aggie.

Strong rumor has it the Texans will draft a punter at pick 15 because Matt Turk needs some competition.

Tell them to ask Reggie Bush what Kubiak thinks about taking a running back in the 1st…. He has made it clear repeatedly that he will never take a running back in the first round. All of Kub’s past successes have come from late round RB’s, and the majority of 1st rounders flop. So why waste the money on a likely failure?

Gary is looking for the next Terell Davis, a late rounder that’s PO’d because no one gave him credit for his talent and effort. He goes out on the field with a chip on his shoulder, and a need to show the world what they missed. He has wings on his feet and carries the whole team on his shoulders…. You wont find that in the first round.

BTW Pat Kirwin has the worst opinions in all of NFL sports. I avoid his articles like the plague.

[To be fair, Clinton Portis was a second round pick and the first round is more likely going to find you a player than in any other round for various reasons. Portis is one of the ex-Bronco Texan staff’s favorite players. Just because the team can make do with lower round picks at running back and offensive line, doesn’t mean that they want to make do at those positions. I don’t see them taking BPA RB in the first, but it wouldn’t surprise me in any other round. -S]

The Texans are one of the better teams at keeping their draft preferences under wraps, but I think their leaning towards defense is hardly a mystery worth Sherlock Holmes’ time.

Since this is one of the best linebacker drafts in a while, I think a linebacker in the first is almost a certainty, unless a player like Malcolm Jenkins falls to them. I know that a lot of people like Clay Matthews, but I would prefer seeing a hybrid that could double as a third down pass rusher like Michael Johnson or Brian Cushing.

As for the running back position, I can’t see them taking one until the third round, where they could look at Andre Brown or Rashard Jennings (both could very possibly go earlier). If they instead wait until the fourth or fifth, they may look at Javarris Williams. I apologize in advance, Stephanie, because I disagree with you on their needs at this position. The Texans have to get a back that can move the pile and the aforementioned players would be in that category. Obviously, they’d have to be able to play in the zone blocking scheme, but most of the bigger backs are going to be “one cut” guys, so it makes the search that much easier.

Thanks, and keep up the great work.

[Jimmy, so good to *see* you. I think it would be great if the Texans were able to get a back who happens to be pile pusher and fits their scheme but I don’t think that is a necessity in their mind. I think they are mostly looking for quality plug and play backs that can do all the things they need a back to do in their system. Whatever the size of the back, short yardage running will likely never be a big strength of this form of offense because of the size of the Olinemen. I’m thinking Brown and Jennings go higher than the third. -Steph]

I think the reason’s against drafting are the first 2 reasons you mentioned. The last two reasons are moot points. If the rookie outperforms slaton or does the same as slaton, he will be on the field. There are examples of teams going against your 4th and 5th reasons like Carolina and Tennessee. Carolina had deangelo williams, but drafted Johnathon Stewart in the first round, The Tennesse Titans had Lendale White, but drafted Chris Johnson. Now i will admit that those teams had good defenses(reason 1 and 2 in your argument). Tennessee and Carolina made the playoffs last season and Lendale white and Williams were not first rounders.My reasons against drafting a running back are that I think we really need to improve the defense more than we need a complimentary back and I do not like the quality that is there in the first round. I really like Andre Brown who might be available at our 3rd round draft pick. Moreno and Wells do not scream draft me the way that Johnathon Stewart did last season.

I like your arguments for drafting a running back in the first. Although I do not see the value of Wells and Moreno, if the Texans draft one of them I will not be outraged or shocked because it means that they thought that the running back would help more than the linebacker at the 15th slot.

[I think Brown goes higher than the Texans third round pick. I think once the backs start coming off the board middle to bottom of the first, they will keep on coming off. You can look at my arguments for picking running back in the first, and translate them to reasons why the Texans might want to pick running back in the second round. -Steph]

It’s a very disappointing and frustrating to think that Kubiak was being so open and honest about their draft plans. I’m hoping they draft someone other than a LB or DB now just to reassure me that he’s not foolish. After all, he has no problems being much less than honest with us about injuries!

Me, I think this is a deliberate attempt to blow off the backs of the heads of several notorious ChronBlog hangers-on who believe the Texans are destined to fail every year because they don’t take a “stud running back” in the first round.”Set ’em up just to watch ’em fall.”

BTW, does anybody REALLY think that NFL teams are paying attention to PRECISELY what the Texans are going to do in the draft, so they can foul them up?JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS GM: “Well, here we are, it’s our turn to pick and I have been paying a LOT of attention to the smooth stylings of Gary Kubiak in those blogger interviews. Looks like Gary’s going to fake us all out and take Beanie Wells. HAH! I’ll twist his shorts, but good! WE’RE taking Beanie! We have lots of needs elsewhere, but if it’s the last thing I do I’m going to snatch Beanie right offa Koobs’ plate, leave him cryin’ in his Shiner Bock, you betcha…”Uh, no.

[Actually, I’m not a big fan of being open and obvious with what your draft plans are. I don’t see the benefit in it, and the risk is that it might hurt draft day trades and leverage. The only time that some minor pre-draft signals may be a good thing is if you are inclined to go completely contrarian and freak out your fanbase. See e.g. the end of this blog post: http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2007/05/14/charley-casserly-and-mr-spock-separated-at-birth/ -S]

I’m with Larry House on this one. I wouldn’t drop a #1 pick, but if he’s there in the second, no way I pass on Shonn Greene. 5’11” 235# and little tread on the tires. I would think he would at least split time with Slaton, keeping both fresh. And I don’t believe Steve would get his nose out of joint with this matchup. Also your 3rd or 4th and 1 worries are history. Move the sticks, rest the defense.

[Running on short downs, no matter who the back, I think is going to be an issue with the size of the line. They won’t acknowledge that, but traditionally, short yardage hasn’t be a strength of this form of offense–but yeah, even so, the Texans could find some improvement. *understatement alert*-S]

If there was a back worth taking with the 15th pick, then sure. But I don’t think there is one in this draft. Especially when measured against guys you can get later. The drop-off is not that significant.

—————

As far as teams paying attention to what other teams say, sure they do. Not to specifically foul them up, but just to have an idea of where those teams might values guys in case it is someone they might want as well. If you’re a team interested in a certain player and really want him, you have to have a decent idea of where he’ll be available. That affects whether you need to trade up or whether you can trade back and still get the guy you want.

So no Fool, teams are not listening to Kubiak in order to foul up his draft. But they are looking for clues as to where the Texans might be leaning on guys they themselves are interested in.

…teams are not listening to Kubiak in order to foul up his draft. But they are looking for clues as to where the Texans might be leaning on guys they themselves are interested in. –Posted by: Hutch at March 26, 2009 10:15 AMNo, I agree with you there. I’m actually talking more about those who OVERANALYZE this, and moan about the Texans “signalling the direction they’re going in.”Of course they don’t want to directly state what they’re looking to do. Unless you have the first pick, that makes no sense – though not so much because of what OTHER teams might think, IMO, but what the players’ agents will do with the info.But OTOH, if Koobs or any other coach wants to have a frank discussion of their philosophy, I doubt that it’s the same thing as the Allies’ stealing the Enigma machine in WWII.

The texans need to trade a 3rd round pick to New England for Lawrence Maroney. –Posted by: chucky at March 26, 2009 11:12 AMMaroney’s is an interesting name to throw out there. If you’ll recall, he didn’t start OUT to be a *bust*. From Wikipedia:

While splitting time with fellow running back Corey Dillon in 2006, Maroney was part of what coach Bill Belichick called the best running back corps he had ever coached. After Corey Dillon was released, Maroney became the starting running back for the Patriots.In 2006 Week 4, Maroney earned 125 yards and 2 TDs (of 11 and 25 yards) on 15 carries against the Cincinnati Bengals, a performance that earned him both FedEx Ground NFL Player of the Week and Diet Pepsi Rookie NFL Player of the Week honors. In Week 7 against Buffalo, he was voted AFC Special Teams Player of the Week after a 74-yard kickoff return, while in Week 8 he had a 77-yard kickoff return against the Minnesota Vikings. These two were the two longest non-TD returns of the season outside of Antonio Cromartie’s 91-yard kickoff return against the Oakland Raiders, and they gave Maroney the longest kickoff return average among all NFL players; he finished 2006 with 783 kick return yards.In Week 11, Maroney had 82 yards rushing, and four receptions for 34 yards, including a 19-yard reception that became his first receiving touchdown.Although Maroney rushed for 835 yards in the Patriots’ undefeated regular season, he became a huge factor in the post-season, compiling 244 rushing yards and two touchdowns in only two games before playing in Super Bowl XLII. In Super Bowl XLII Maroney had 14 carries for 36 yards with a 1 yard touchdown in a loss against the Giants.

Then came a season-ending shoulder injury last year, and now a lot of folks consider him “bust-ville.”Why? Because RBs are fragile and expendable, taken in the aggregate. Which is why you don’t want to take one in the first round unless you’re someone like the Patriots: Loaded at every position, and well enough able to take the risk with a “premier” RB taken early.It’s like they tell you when you’re doing high-risk investments: never commit money you can’t afford to lose.Q.E.D.

I think Kubiak is being as truthful as possible while trying to play it as close to the vest as possible. I’m from the school of if you can run the ball and control the clock and not turn the ball over and score. You make the other team predictable and your defense can be really fresh and aggressive. If you can run effective it opens up your offense also. That is why I belive that we will trade down and suprise everyone and take K. Moreno from UGA. Moreno would give our offense a level of toughness that we have yet to see! I then belive we will then trade up to the begining of the second round and take C. Matthews Jr. who is a second round prospect that is being hyped as a first round pick but is a very good fit for our need. RT2

I am starting to wish they would take the Jenkins kid who plays CB/S. And before anyone jumps up to say “We just paid for a corner in last year’s off-season”, does anyone really think Reeves is the answer at a corner for a championship contender? Aren’t they working on building a championship contender?

Just think of this. It seems pretty clear that GK and RS just want to get it right and get it right… right now. (See the Mario pick amid the clamor for RB and VY; see the David Carr cut after only one year, etc.)

Now I am not a Reeves hater, but he is not a “plus corner.” He may be okay until the new guy has had a chance to mature, which hopefully coincides with a deeper run in the playoffs (Lord let this be true!!) Then they can re-structure Reeves and let him become the nickel corner. Or cut him if he does not see what seems to be obvious. I have to figure that if I (and all of you) know this, then the brain-trust probably does too.

I could see most definitely see OLB being our pick, but I am not going to be shocked at all if they pick up the kid from OSU if he does fall past New Orleans… and stranger things have happened.

Then in the lower rounds, get a guy who is a pure speed rusher for DE and/or OLB.

Your thoughts Steph?

[I don’t know enough about the college players other than second hand stuff. Given equivalent skills, I’d prefer LB over corner. But BPA defense works for me-I can see arguments for different guys. -S]

Portis was drafted in the second and had an incredible rookie year. Denver dumped him after 2 years of an 8 year contract. Traded to the Redskins for Champ Bailey and a 2nd round pick they again used on RB Tatum Bell. Bell also had a great rookie year was dumped after 3 years, traded (along with George Foster) away to Detroit for Dre Bly.

In Kub’s/ Gibbs system high picks have not been worth the cost, although they have made fairly good trade bait. As stated earlier in your article “When has Alex Gibbs ever asked for a 1st round RB”?

I think Gary is being cautious not to give away his position. But I also believe he is being honest that he doesn’t need an RB or WR in the 1st.

Last year the RB’s fell and the Texans could have had Mendenhall, but instead traded down a few spots and got the extra third rounder that yielded Slaton. They still got the guy they wanted in Duane Brown.

Watch for a repeat performance this year since all of the RBs will be available at 15 and the Eagles with 2 first rounders or the Lions at 20 and 33 would love to grab one. I think the Texans will be able to trade down a few spots, land another 2nd or 3rd round pick and still get the impact LB they want. (Mathews or Cushing)

I also believe the Texans will draft 2 running backs. A Slaton clone in round 3 (or sooner if the trade down works) and then either a big back or someone like Mike Goodson in the 5th or 6th round if available.

A draft that includes 5 or 6 defensive players, 2 running backs and 1 offensive lineman should put the Texans in position to challenge Indy for the AFC South title.

I don’t expect to pick up a RB in the first round. I personally am hoping to possibly trade up and pick up BJ Raji. That could be pretty expensive so maybe Brian Cushing would be a good choice to come in as an OLB. Anyway you look at it, that position is not going to a RB.

Kudos Steph and keep up the good work, I always enjoy reading what you have to say.

[Thanks Chuck. Raji is the only DT I’d be interested in but I don’t see it due to the price of moving up and also how much money is already invested on the line. I’m always interested in seeing who the Texans pick because often they aren’t the darlings of the draft gurus, but after the draft if you look at the guys in depth, you can see what the Texans are thinking with the pick.-Steph]

I imagine that half of the staff hated it (the offense) and the other half loved it (the defense). I’m crying at losing one of the best backs in the NFL or I am giddy and over the moon knowing we’re getting the best shutdown cornerback in football.

A RB at 15 makes no sense. Why would you pay 1st round money to a backup running back or someone who will split carries with Slaton? Take an outside linebacker. I’ll be happy with either Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing.

This is all part of the psychology of the draft. It is a chess match to the last. You would never let teams ahead of you know who you want so you start rumors. The odd thing is that few if any of the other teams will buy into this. My opinion only.