Afternoon commodities commentary

CBS.MarketWatch.com

LIVESTOCK:

DAILY DRESSED BEEF OUTLOOK

03/02/00 pm: Beef sales Friday are expected to be light to moderate. Packer offerings will be moderate. But, packers have likely moved enough boxes to start next week in reasonably good shape. Prices Friday will be firm to higher. Buying interest and demand will continue good. Sales are expected to be just fair due to buyers reducing orders, at least temporarily, due to the higher prices this week. Cutouts will be firm to higher Friday. For the week, choice cutouts will be up nearly 3 dollars, selects up 1.50-2 dollars. Sltr Est: 127,000

DAILY FED CATTLE OUTLOOK

03/02/00 pm: Few if any sales of feedlot cattle are expected Friday. Business will done for the week with most showlists cleaned up. Packers may be seeing tighter supplies of well finished cattle next few weeks, prompting them to buy aggressively this week. No better than margin appears to be, the fact that packers paid 2 dollars higher and bought on Wednesday, means they either see supply changing or the beef business is better than it appears, or both. Cornbelt: 69-70.50/109-111 Kansas: 70-70.50 Texas: 70-70.50

DAILY FEEDER CATTLE OUTLOOK

03/02/00 pm: Prices will remain strong Friday on feeder cattle. Trading will be mainly 1-2 dollars higher than last week. Rain in the Plains will be beneficial to pastures and tighten numbers going to market for a while. In addition, stocker buyers that have held off buying part or all of summer pasture needs will likely be back in the market again. Strong demand for stocker type cattle will reduce availability of cattle feedlot buyers have been buying when yearlings were tight. Plains: 81-90 Cornbelt: 83-93

April live cattle: first support 72.24, second 71.67. First resistance 72.81, second 73.38. June live cattle: first support 69.04, second 68.57. First resistance 69.51, second 69.98.

March feeders: first support 84.10, second 83.80. First resistance 84.40, second 84.70.

April live hogs: first support 57.79, second 56.77. First resistance 58.81, second 59.83. June live hogs: first support 67.08, second 66.23. First resistance 67.93, second 68.78.

March pork bellies: first support 92.53, second 89.83. First resistance 95.23, second 97.93.

GRAIN:

DAILY CORN OUTLOOK

03/02/00 pm: May corn futures closing call: up 1 cent Friday. The EPA said that the use of MTBE for a fuel additive should be eliminated, which would sharply increase demand for ethanol. USDA is projecting corn used for ethanol in 1999-00 at 558 million bushels vs. 526 million in 1998-99. Any sharp increase in ethanol production would be supportive to corn prices, but also negative to the soy complex due to increased byproduct feed production. Corn futures continue to hold the lows, so additional fund liquidation can be postponed. Rain is due in the Cornbelt in plenty of time for planting to begin in mid-April.

DAILY SOYBEANS OUTLOOK

03/02/00 pm: May beans closing call: up 2 cents Friday. The bean complex rebounded late as selling was less aggressive than expected. Rains in northern Brazil are expected to delay harvest there. Expectations for both crush and exports to slow seasonally have been well publicized. Basis levels remain firm, as processors have to bid up for beans despite the slower crush rates. A sharp increase in corn processing to produce ethanol would increase corn byproduct feed production and increase competition with soybean meal. It appears that we will be heading in that direction and high petroleum prices makes the congress more likely to change the legislation.

DAILY WHEAT OUTLOOK

03/02/00 pm: Chicago May wheat futures closing call: up 1 cent Friday. Kansas City May futures closing up 1 cent Friday. Rains in Kansas were beneficial, but some private forecasters were projecting a high pressure ridge to set up in the Midwest later in March. Follow-up rains will be needed as temperatures increase seasonally in the weeks ahead. Funds were active sellers, but wheat will take its direction from corn and bean prices. Expectations for acres on March 31 will be 59.8 to 62.3 million acres vs. 62.8 million in 1999, and USDA at 62 million at the Outlook Conference. Acres for harvest will be smaller than usual in Texas and Oklahoma.

DAILY COTTON OUTLOOK

03/02/00 pm: May futures: off 25 Friday. The A Index jumped again to $56.10, or $12.10 over the low, and was a reaction to the sharp rebound in futures on Wednesday. The ICAC report increasing the A Index to 61 cents for 2000-01 from 55 previously estimated will be a support to prices, but profit-taking was seen after the sharp up this week.

DAILY TECHNICALCOMMENTS

03/02/00 pm: July beans: first support 5.14, second 5.06. First resistance 5.22, second 5.30. Nov beans: first support 5.22, second 5.14. First resistance 5.30, second 5.38.

July meal: first support 164.90, second 161.40. First resistance 168.40, second 171.90. Dec meal: first support 167.13, second 164.33. First resistance 169.93, second 172.73.

July oil: first support .1609, second .1586. First resistance .1632, second .1655. Dec oil: first support .1696, second .1679. First resistance .1713, second .1730.

July corn: first support 2.31, second 2.29. First resistance 2.33, second 2.35. Dec corn: first support 2.48, second 2.45. First resistance 2.50, second 2.53.

July wheat: first support 2.67, second 2.61. First resistance 2.72, second 2.77. Dec wheat: first resistance 2.62, second 2.58. First resistance 2.66, second 2.70.

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