Well Im still pretty amazed that markets like the Dax and Ftse can break down from 9 week trading ranges and then miraculously rocket back up after only a week .On Wednesday lunchtime I had a LH (below the triple top) on Ftse and what looked like a great setup for a fast move down.A few hours later the US markets had shot higher,miraculously dragging Europe with them,all on "rumors" of better fiscal cliff negotiations and despite bad home sales numbers.This market has become a joke. However Ftse is right up against its long term trend resistance now,plus we are 6 months (Gann's 180 degrees ) from the Summer low so a reversal here is quite possible.Frankly Im pretty wary of calling for big moves down having experienced so many chart pattern failures and CB interventions over the last couple of years but equally I'm not confident calling big bull moves from here purely on money printing.Weekly macd doesnt seem supportive of a breakout but obviously you could expect a big move up if that trendline broke (and the disconnect between reality and the markets would get even more ridiculous than it already is)

There is a also a TAS pattern setup as we declined 11 weeks and rallied more than 22 without a new high.However that was actually triggered 2 weeks ago and we are rallying again so is it a failure or will we get a second bite at the cherry ?

The summer rally was 702 points and 70.2 degrees is approximately 71 days,which added to the high (Sep 14) gives last Saturday if Ive done my calcs right .The high so far for this correction was 5830 on Friday.So a reversal here could be significant and adds to power of the "lower high" setup in the earlier post.The first move down was 316 points. The run down last May was 413 points
I did some of these square of the range calcs retrospectively a couple of months ago (posted on blog) and they proved startlingly accurate so itwill be interesting to see if this one works.tomorrow is significant day also for those who follow ntaural cycles as it is a lunar eclipse day on Wednesday

Tuesday, 27 November 2012

swing chart
Obviously not relevant to a swing chart but worth watching for jeff Cooper (Gann) 7 day exhaustion/reversal (not just on Spx) - like we saw at the top on AAPL,gold at the highs last year etc

Monday, 26 November 2012

this dollar chart from Sqwii (http://sqwiitrader.com/weekend-outlook-for-26th-november-2012-bulls-comeback/ ) is probably key for the next week or two.If Sqwii is correct and the dollar declines the rally in equities will likely continue,especially given bullish seasonality

I was surprised by the extent of the rally,especially given the weekly candle breakout from a 9 week trading range on the Dax and the very bearish looking breakdown on Ftse,but we were oversold,with bearish sentiment and thin volumes due to Thanksgiving.I also think the extreme oversold position of Apple had a lot to do with it ,especially as we had hit the 525 target I was looking for

The bearish weekly 2x1 angle is at 1414 this week,1404 next week.We had a strong move yesterday off Fridays hammer .AAPL hit my 525 target (actually hit 505 intraday) and rebounded strongly and is a key stock to monitor for this rally.Hard to fathom the gap down in the Vix. We have bullish seasonality coming up with Thanksgiving so bears need to be cautious about entering short too early unless you are prepared to use wide stops.Internals were very strong yesterday but my feeling is that this rally should end somewhere around 1395-1400

Saturday, 17 November 2012

Friday, 16 November 2012

Thursday, 15 November 2012

AAPL reached 525 today which was a target I had being 180 points down and a 25% move from the high.Will be interesting to see if it can rally from here. The daily candle is not a reversal candle. Chart from Ron Walker

The Dax broke the 1x1 line in the chart posted earlier and also broke down from resistance and the mvg aves in this chart.It is entirely possible we get a fast move down off the triple top into the eom time cycles,possibly around 6510-40 (fib retracement and 12.5% from the high) or even into the lower support band around 6200