Typhoon Haiyan makes landfall over the Philippines

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As predicted Typhoon Haiyan made landfall late yesterday evening (UK time) over the central Philippines.

Typhoon Haiyan will have caused catastrophic damage near the centre of its track through the Philippine islands of Samar, Leyte and Panay. In addition to the strong winds, the storm surge and heavy rain will also have caused major impacts in these regions. The typhoon is now moving out into the South China Sea. Over the next couple of days it is likely to lose some strength before making another landfall in northern parts of Vietnam on Sunday, although is still expected to be a typhoon.

Typhoon Haiyan at 2230 UTC on 07 November 2013 as it made landfall. Image from NOAA.

At the time of landfall the estimated central pressure of the typhoon was 895 mb and sustained winds averaged over one minute estimated at 195 mph with higher gusts. These estimates are based on well attested satellite techniques, but without observations exactly in the path of the eye of the typhoon it is impossible to confirm their accuracy. However, this is likely to make Haiyan one of the most intense tropical cyclones to make landfall in history.

Forecast track of Typhoon Haiyan from the Japan Meteorological Agency.

In 1969 Hurricane Camille made landfall over the southern USA with sustained winds near 190 mph and in 1935 a hurricane which passed over the Florida Keys had an observed central pressure of 892 mb.

In terms of all time records, Typhoon Tip in 1979 holds the record for the lowest pressure in a tropical cyclone measured at 870 mb and the strongest wind gust ever recorded in a tropical cyclone was 253 mph in Cyclone Olivia off the north-west coast of Australia in 1996. As things stand these records seem likely to remain for the time being.

Regional warnings for Typhoon Haiyan are produced by the Japanese Meteological Agency (JMA) and the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of typhoon tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. Met Office model data and guidance is also used by Project NOAH in part for warning the government and the Filipino population.

Met Office StormTracker provides a mapped picture of tropical cyclones around the globe with access to track history and six-day forecast tracks for current tropical cyclones from the Met Office Unified Model and latest observed cloud cover and sea surface temperature. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

6 responses

Interesting to see how the Met Office has fallen into line with the BBC by referring to this typhoon as “catastrophic” even before any reports of damage are assessed. Presumably this is in readiness for the inevitable links that will be made to catastrophic global warming.

Given that the data clearly shows declines in the incidence of cyclones over the past decade, along with no trend in droughts, tornados, snowfall (possibly some increase if anything) or monsoon rainfall perhaps you could point to data which supports your claims.

Somehow your use of the term denial suggests your claims may be light on empirical data, and long on emotion, but I’m always willing to change my mind.

Of the 13 strongest typhoons on record, 5 are from this short century. Source – Weather Underground. Haiyan was the strongest at landfall.

Maybe you should (re)read the AR5 summary.

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.”