New Jersey is facing losses of tens of billions of dollars over the next few decades from the effects of climate change, according to a 17-page report an independent research group released Thursday.

A rapid rise in sea level, increased flooding and more frequent and more intense storms will damage the state's coastal communities, including businesses, infrastructure and freshwater supplies, the Center for Integrative Environmental Research at the University of Maryland said.

The rising sea level also poses risks to coastal shipping, commercial fishing and tourism. New Jersey's coastal communities generate 70 percent of the state's total annual tourism dollars, according to the researchers, who also issued reports for seven other states.

The study is one of the first to examine the impact of climate change on state economies.

"We don't have a crystal ball and can't predict specific bottom lines, but the trend is very clear," said the study's coordinator, Matthias Ruth. "Climate change will cost billions in the long run and the bottom line will be red."

Predictions for New Jersey include:

-- Beaches will erode at a rate of 50 to 100 times faster than the rate of sea level elevation and will cost an estimated $6 billion in maintenance over the next 50 years.

-- By 2100, Atlantic City will flood every one to two years, with serious economic repercussions. For example, if the state's coastal communities suffered a 1 percent decrease in tourism each year, by 2017 the state would lose $3.7 billion and 40,000 jobs.

-- Damage to coastal infrastructure from an increase in major storms would raise the economic impact of climate change in the state from $3.9 million in 2007 to more than $45 million in 2017.

Investigators at the environmental center, an independent, multidisciplinary research group, combined established data with new analysis to project the long-term economic impact of climate change on New Jersey, Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada and Ohio. The reports were released yesterday at the National Conference of State Legislators in New Orleans.

"New Jersey is more vulnerable than the other states, especially in terms of sea-level rise," researcher Daria Karetnikov said. "You have a really long eroded coastline, and coastal development is also widespread."

The sea level along New Jersey's coast has risen at a rate of 0.14 inches a year over the last century -- nearly twice the global average, according to experts -- and is expected to rise 2 to 4 feet between now and 2100. The result is that the ocean will claim a substantial part of land along the coast, where development has led to soil erosion.

New Jersey's low-lying coast averages 120 feet of inundation for every one-foot rise in sea level. By the end of this century, up to 3 percent of the state's 210-mile-long shoreline will be under water.

Over the next few decades, coastal storms would be more intense and more frequent. Instead of occurring, on average, once every 20 years, they would occur every five.

"The state is vulnerable to storms, and with temperature and precipitation increases in the state, there will be more extreme weather events," Karetnikov said.

Just to protect the 18 coastal miles of Long Beach Island -- by moving houses and building levees -- nearly $200 million would be needed for each 1- to 3-foot increase in sea level, according to the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection.

The effects of sea-level rise and beach erosion, say the authors of the University of Maryland study, could devastate New Jersey's tourism, which contributes more than $30 billion a year to the state's coffers. Seventy percent of that money is generated by coastal communities, including Atlantic City.

By 2100, sea level rise, beach erosion and storm surges are predicted to cause Atlantic City to flood, on average, every one to two years instead of once every 100 years, according to a 2007 study by the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Loss of land along the coast and more storms also will have an impact on potable water. Erosion causes seawater to contaminate ground water, and flooding adds pollutants from roads and sewers to surface water.

"You're going to have to build levees," Karetnikov said. "And something has to be done about development, but I don't know what that something should be."