It’s been a while since I’ve updated this site. First, my discussion of Jonathan Wright’s
“Options-Implied Probability Density Functions for Real Interest Rates,” has been published
in the International Journal of Central Banking, and I’ve updated the file to the published
version. Second, I substantially revised my working paper, “Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve
Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets.” Relative to the previous version,
the paper now considers alternate identifying assumptions, has more analysis of the pre-zero-lower-bound
period in the U.S., and more analysis of policy persistence. Finally, I’ve updated
my curriculum vitae.