Tag: await

U.S. stock index futures were lower on Friday ahead of the release of key inflation data. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 50 points, indicating a decline of 73.92 points at the open. The latest CPI figures as well as core CPI data for December are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Meanwhile, market focus was also attuned to news that trade talks between the world’s two largest economies could soon move to higher levels. U.S. and Chinese officials are working on arrangements of hig

U.S. stock index futures were lower on Friday ahead of the release of key inflation data.

At around 7:10 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 50 points, indicating a decline of 73.92 points at the open. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were trading lower.

The latest CPI figures as well as core CPI data for December are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The moves on Friday happened after after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the U.S. central bank would be patient about raising interest rates over the coming months.

Meanwhile, market focus was also attuned to news that trade talks between the world’s two largest economies could soon move to higher levels.

U.S. and Chinese officials are working on arrangements of higher-level trade talks after mid-level officials concluded talks earlier this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday that Vice Premier Liu would most likely visit Washington later in January for further negotiations.

Major stock indexes on Wall Street closed slightly higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 notching its first five-day winning streak since September.

However, gains were capped after disappointing holiday sales from Macy’s and a revenue guidance cut from American Airlines pressured retail and airline shares. Fear that the U.S. government shutdown might continue for a long time also weighed on stocks in the previous session.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 2.6921 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at 2.9984 percent. The moves in pre-market trade come after delegations from Washington and Beijing ended three days of trade negotiations in China on Wednesday. China’s commerce ministry said Thursday the negotiations were extensive and had helped set up a foundation for further talks. This week’s face-to-face meetings

Investors are hoping a strong December jobs report and dovish words from the Federal Reserve chairman will ease rising concerns about an economic slowdown. Traders were encouraged ahead of the report by strong ADP payroll data, with 271,000 new jobs in December. The ISM report added to a weak market tone Thursday, already negative after Apple’s warning Wednesday that iPhone sales were down in China and revenues would be sharply lower. Apple blamed trade wars for the decline, and the ISM report o

Investors are hoping a strong December jobs report and dovish words from the Federal Reserve chairman will ease rising concerns about an economic slowdown.

The December employment report, released at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, is expected to show 177,000 non-farm payrolls were added, after 155,000 in November, and an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.7 percent, according to Thomson Reuters. Traders were encouraged ahead of the report by strong ADP payroll data, with 271,000 new jobs in December.

The jobs report also comes on the heels of Thursday’s shockingly weak ISM manufacturing survey, down 5.2 points to 54.1, the largest one-month decline since the financial crisis. The report, which still shows an expanding economy, was worrisome because it contained an 11-point drop in new orders.

The ISM report added to a weak market tone Thursday, already negative after Apple’s warning Wednesday that iPhone sales were down in China and revenues would be sharply lower. Apple blamed trade wars for the decline, and the ISM report only added to fears that trade was a potential catalyst for a broader global slowdown.

“You had some really strong ADP data the market completely ignored. Then you had a pretty horrendous ISM print that the market really reacted to strongly. That makes the setup for [Friday] interesting. It wouldn’t matter if the data is good, but it will matter if it’s bad,” said Tom Simons, chief money market economist at Jefferies.

Not long after the employment report, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell joins a panel at 10:15 a.m. ET with former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen. The event will be at the American Economic Association’s annual meeting in Atlanta and moderated by Neil Irwin of The New York Times.

The Powell appearance has been widely anticipated in markets, even though many economists do not expect him to provide much new insight into policy. Powell’s last appearance was at the briefing following the Fed’s rate meeting in December, and he spooked markets when he said that the Fed’s policy of winding down its balance sheet was on “auto pilot.” Markets are looking for Powell to show some flexibility on that program, under which the Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet by allowing securities to roll off as they mature.

“I’m worried we’re overhyping this appearance a little bit. It could be a real fluffy event,” said Simons. “Attention is going to be split up over three different people who are going to be talking about different things, and two of whom are going to be speaking in retrospect.”

Investors have been speculating that Powell could send a dovish message to intentionally reverse the impression he gave after the rate hike.

“I think he has to be careful with the sequencing. I think first he has to tell the markets he’s going to take a pause on rate hikes before he starts talking about the balance sheet,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.

Markets have been concerned that the Fed is heading for a policy mistake, of tightening too much in a too-weak economy.

“The important thing about today is that the market has this belief that if the Fed is done, that’s good. They’re not hiking anymore, that’s good. But they’re stuck with a still-fat balance sheet and a 2.25, 2.50 percent fed funds rate. If we get a poor payroll number that could be a precursor to jobs weakness,” said Boockvar. “You want the Fed to be done with their hiking cycle because they think they’ve done their job. You don’t want the Fed to be done with their hiking cycle because the economy is weakening in its face.”

Boockvar said the risk is a self-fulfilling prophecy where stock market weakness leads to a recession.

The stock market fell sharply Thursday, and buyers bid up bonds, sending yields to fresh lows. The Dow was down 660 points, or 2.8 percent, while the Nasdaq, hit hard by Apple, was down 3 percent at 6,463. The S&P 500 sank 2.5 percent to 2,447.

The 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.55 percent, the lowest in a year. But even more significant, yields on shorter-duration notes rose above longer-duration yields. For instance, the 7-year yield, at 2.43 percent, fell below the 1-year note, at 2.52 percent. The 2-year note yield, at 2.38 percent, was below 2.40 percent, the effective federal funds rate.

“It means the market is pricing in a recession risk in the next 24 months,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rate strategy at BMO. Lyngen said the market is also indicating an interest rate cut by the Fed is also possible within 24 months. The futures market is currently not pricing in any rate hikes, though the Fed forecasts two hikes this year.

Lyngen said the 10-year yield could continue to move lower Friday and the ISM data could be signaling a change in the economy. “”They’ve just reversed any expectations for any further momentum. Trumponomics, even in the corporate sector that also benefited from the GOP’s tax reform, has now priced it out,” said Lyngen.

Joe LaVorgna, chief economist at Natixis Americas, said the Fed has to pause. He said the trade war is a big worry for markets, but the Fed is bigger.

“The fear is people are going to lump the trade war as an excuse for everything, and it may work, and if there’s a deal, there might be a bounce. That’s a bear market trap if the Fed does not relent,” said LaVorgna.

Asia markets traded mostly higher on Tuesday, following an overnight bounce on Wall Street as investors await a crucial meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Greater China markets traded mixed: The Taiex, which measures the performance of aggregate listed stocks on the Taiwan stock exchange, was down 0.7 percent. Chinese mainland markets were positive, with the Shanghai composite up 0.43 percent and the Shenzhen composite higher by 0.67 percent. “Despite data on t

Chinese mainland markets were positive, with the Shanghai composite up 0.43 percent and the Shenzhen composite higher by 0.67 percent.

Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 see-sawed between gains and losses to trade up 0.29 percent as the heavily weighed financial subindex rose 0.66 percent. The energy sector was up 0.36 percent, likely receiving a small boost from an overnight jump in oil prices.

“Despite data on the whole being softer, global markets traded with a better tone overnight, with equity markets leading the charge,” Nathanael Hartley from ANZ Research wrote in a morning note.

Some analysts said strong Black Friday sales reflecting solid consumer confidence was one of the factors that helped boost risk appetite among investors.

Apple suppliers in Asia will be closely watched throughout the trading day after Trump suggested that he could place a 10 percent tariff on iPhones and laptops imported from China. Apple products are currently exempt from tariffs.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said it’s “highly unlikely” that he would delay an increase in tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on Jan. 1. His comments came days before the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, where he is set to meet Xi for trade talks. Many investors and decision makers are hoping that the summit will diffuse trade tensions between the U.S. and China after each country applied additional tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of each other’s imports.

Apple shares fell nearly 2 percent in after-hours trading.

Trump’s latest remarks “sent a cautious mood to the market as a grim reminder that hurdle remains high in the forthcoming Trump-Xi trade talk,” Huani Zhu, an economist from Mizuho Bank, wrote in a morning note.

Record Saudi oil production pulled down crude prices on Tuesday amid cautious trading ahead of the G20 gathering that starts in Argentina on Friday and next week’s OPEC meeting in Austria. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $51.21 per barrel, down 42 cents, or 0.8 percent. Saudi Arabia raised oil production to an all-time high in November, an industry source said on Monday, pumping 11.1 million to 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) during the month. Since their most recent

Looking ahead, Allardyce said “a lot depends” on the outcome of the Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Buenos Aires where the United States and China are expected to address their trade disputes, and on a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The leaders of the G20 countries, which make up the world’s biggest economies, meet on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, with the trade war between Washington and Beijing top of the agenda.

OPEC will gather for its annual meeting at its headquarters in Vienna on Dec. 6, and the group will discuss its output policy together with some non-OPEC producers, including Russia.

In favour of low oil prices for consumers, U.S. President Donald Trump has put pressure on his political ally Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de-facto leader, not to cut production.

“Our base case is for OPEC+ members to see through the pressure from President Trump and concentrate efforts on curbing the current oversupply in the market by conforming to a new production cut agreement next month in Vienna,” said Japan’s MUFG Bank.

“If OPEC plus Russia cannot send a very strong message to the market, prices are poised to fall further, perhaps to Brent $50 per barrel and WTI of $40 per barrel or less,” Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of energy consultancy FGE, wrote in a note to clients.

“The message must be decisive, firm, and the front must look fully united, to have any chance of slowly reversing the trend,” it added.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note which moves inversely to price, was higher at around 3.0609 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at 3.3113 percent. U.S. bond markets resume trading after market participants observed the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. On the data front, investors are likely to closely monitor a flash reading of Markit Services PMI data for November at around 9:45 a.m. In oil markets, crude futures slumped to their lowest level

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note which moves inversely to price, was higher at around 3.0609 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at 3.3113 percent.

U.S. bond markets resume trading after market participants observed the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. However, Friday’s session is scheduled to be abbreviated with fixed-income trading set to end at 2 p.m. ET.

On the data front, investors are likely to closely monitor a flash reading of Markit Services PMI data for November at around 9:45 a.m. ET.

The U.S. Treasury has no major auctions scheduled on Friday. In oil markets, crude futures slumped to their lowest level since late 2017 amid concerns over an emerging crude supply overhang and a darkening global economic outlook.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at around $61.95 Friday morning, down nearly 1 percent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $53.22, over 2.5 percent lower.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was higher at around 3.0810 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at 3.3270 percent. Nonetheless, a recent bout of global selling has helped the safe-haven U.S. dollar pull away from two-week lows. The greenback was little changed at 96.686 against a basket of major currencies Wednesday morning, after rallying 0.7 percent overnight. On the data front, investors are likely to watch fo

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was higher at around 3.0810 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at 3.3270 percent.

It comes after a second consecutive session of sharp losses on Wall Street, as energy shares dropped with oil prices, while retailers including Target and Kohl tumbled after weaker-than-expected earnings and forecasts.

Nonetheless, a recent bout of global selling has helped the safe-haven U.S. dollar pull away from two-week lows. The greenback was little changed at 96.686 against a basket of major currencies Wednesday morning, after rallying 0.7 percent overnight. The dollar has recovered slightly from a recent trough of 96.042.

On the data front, investors are likely to watch for durable goods figures for October at around 8:30 a.m. ET. Existing home sales data for October and a final reading of consumer sentiment for November are both scheduled to be released at around 10:00 a.m. ET.

The U.S. Treasury has no auctions scheduled on Wednesday.

In oil markets, crude futures bounced by around $1 a barrel Wednesday morning, clawing back some of the losses sustained in the previous session.

However, energy market participants remained on edge, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned Tuesday that heightened political and economic risks could lead to unprecedented uncertainty over the coming months.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at around $63.42 Wednesday morning, up more than 1.4 percent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $54.36, over 1.7 percent higher.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 3.3048 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at 3.0464 percent. It comes after sharp losses on Wall Street in the previous session, with technology firms tumbling amid concerns about softening demand. On Tuesday morning, the U.S. dollar was little changed from the previous session, trading at 96.346 against a basket of major currencies. On the data front, investors

Higher U.S. interest rates tend to boost the dollar and also push up bond yields, reducing the appeal of non-yielding bullion. But for now, we think the Fed will continue with the monetary policy tightening,” said Benjamin Lu, a commodities analyst with Phillip Futures. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,223.70 per ounce, as of 0410 GMT, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.3 percent to $1,224.7 per ounce. Palladium fell 0.3 percent to $1,130.60 per ounce, after touching a two-week high of $1,139.50

Gold prices inched lower on Thursday on the back of a stronger dollar as investors digested the U.S. midterm election results and turned their focus to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision due later in the day.

The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates until its next gathering in December, however market participants are waiting to see whether it offers clues about possible rate increases in December and in 2019.

Higher U.S. interest rates tend to boost the dollar and also push up bond yields, reducing the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

“Gold has found support around $1,223. If we see good news from the Fed, we may see a bounce. But for now, we think the Fed will continue with the monetary policy tightening,” said Benjamin Lu, a commodities analyst with Phillip Futures.

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,223.70 per ounce, as of 0410 GMT, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.3 percent to $1,224.7 per ounce.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, traded in a narrow range and was last up 0.2 percent, having touched a more than two-week low in the previous session.

“I suspect gold will ping pong along with the U.S. dollar as traders begin to re-evaluate the current state of the USD,” Stephen Innes, APAC trading head at OANDA in Singapore, said in a note.

Meanwhile, Asian stocks rose to a one-month peak following a post-election rally on Wall Street.

Asian stocks were mixed on Tuesday afternoon as investors looked to the U.S. midterm elections set for later in the day. The Greater China markets were in negative territory by the end of the morning session, with the Shanghai composite dropping 1.05 percent and the Shenzhen composite falling 1.611 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose by 1 percent in afternoon trade and the Topix index saw gains of 1.16 percent. In Australia, the ASX 200 was 0.92 percent higher in afternoon trade, with most sectors

Asian stocks were mixed on Tuesday afternoon as investors looked to the U.S. midterm elections set for later in the day.

The Greater China markets were in negative territory by the end of the morning session, with the Shanghai composite dropping 1.05 percent and the Shenzhen composite falling 1.611 percent. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped by 0.15 percent.

Shares of conglomerate Softbank fell into negative territory after having earlier seen gains, trading around 2.65 percent lower in the afternoon despite earlier reporting a profit surge for the second quarter of 2018 helped by higher valuations on high-tech bets. The conglomerate’s CEO, Masayoshi Son, said on Monday that “there may be some impact” on its Saudi-backed Vision Fund following the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi

The Japanese tech investment giant has poured billions into start-ups in Silicon Valley and around the world through this investment fund.

In Australia, the ASX 200 was 0.92 percent higher in afternoon trade, with most sectors seeing gains. The energy and materials sectors were up 1.47 and 1.67 percent, respectively, as the heavily weighted financial subindex advanced 0.84 percent.

The moves Down Under came after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its decision to keep the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent.

“The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual,” the central bank’s governor, Philip Lowe, said in a media release.

The move was widely anticipated by market observers, with Rakuten Securities Australia saying in a morning note that “local investors looking to make money today will probably be (focusing) more on the Melbourne Cup which takes place 30 mins after the announcement.”

Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi saw a gain of 0.17 percent in afternoon trade.