Long Term DIscussion

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN VERYGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGHSUNDAY...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE 00 UTC GFS AND THE EARLIER 12 UTCRUN OF THE ECMWF ARE GRADUALLY CONVERGING CLOSER ON A TIME FOR THECOLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO ASUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING PASSAGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILLSHOWING A DAYTIME PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT IT IS NOW ABIT FASTER FROM YESTERDAY`S 00 UTC RUN. THEREFORE...WILL BE VERYINTERESTED TO SEE THE NEW 00 UTC EURO RUN WHEN IT COMES OUT LATERTHIS MORNING AND HOPE IT CONVERGES TOWARDS THE GFS. THEREAFTER...THESOLUTIONS DO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANDALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOULD BE DRY WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS...THEECMWF STILL KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINANT IN OUR AREA...WHILETHE GFS CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE IT WESTWARD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROFSETTING UP ACROSS THE SE U.S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE SOLUTION OF ANUPPER TROF...THE MEX NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM THE GFS STILLKEEPS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...SO THE WARM SUMMERTIMETEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. ALSO...DESPITE THE 20% POPS IN THE MEXGUIDANCE...BELIEVE EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL BE DRYENOUGH TO DROP POPS TO SILENT 10S FOR TUES AND WED...AND THE 20%SSHOW MORE OF THE CONVERGENCE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TOWARDSCLIMATOLOGY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

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