WINNER: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds)He's the fifth actor to be nominated from within Quentin Tarantino's filmography and the first to win. The previous nominees were Thurman, Travolta and Jackson in Pulp Fiction and Forster in Jackie Brown.

38% Performance: Effective and moving33% Role: Alcoholism and grief are classic Bait. Plus: Plenty of screentime11% Career endurance.Props for that. 9% Topical film 6% Timing: late enough to be fresh in memory, not so late that it got trapped in December glut 2% weed-lovers unite!1%Zombieland

41% Career Honors. They've ignored him for decades and he's 80 years old. Times a wastin. 33% Role: It's a lead and you know about the endless Oscar allure of the biopic9% Performance 8% Helen Mirren7% Sorry about The Insider. No, we don't know what we were thinking either. 2% Bird noises

55% Performance: witty, funny, scary 27% Role: big and very well written 7% "That's a Bingo!" catchphrases that enter public discourse are gold. 5% Hit film and BP nominee3% WW II factor... even if it's a fantasy version of same2% Tarantino1% Fine acceptance speeches all season

Will Win / Should Win

Christoph Waltz has it in the bag. There was no sentimental "career" swell for Woody or Plummer, apart from their nominations. It's a good place to reward the entertaining Tarantino film.

Who Got Robbed?

Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker) can't catch a break, can he? Despite repeatedly solid work in Oscar nominated films (8 Mile, Half Nelson, Million Dollar Baby) and now a large role in a Best Picture frontrunner they've never noticed him. What will it take, do you think? Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles) worked a typical Oscar-Bait role (famous person mimicry) to great reviews and "major debut!" buzz but in the end his film was too small to register with voters.