Turnout

After selecting a couple of outsiders, I’ve gone for a safer bet on low turnout.

The received wisdom is that this is a close election with big stakes that is re-engaging voters. Some commentators think turnout could even rise from what is a very low base of 61 to over 70 per cent, which is much closer to the historic average.

But from the limited time I’ve spent speaking to voters in marginals, this doesn’t ring true. None of the parties have really captured the public imagination in the way Tony Blair did in 1997, and even then turnout was only 71 per cent.

David Cameron really needs to win the two Labour seats in Dudley (and the nearby marginal in Halesowen & Rowley Regis) to secure a majority. Here are three conclusions from my wholly unscientific survey over the Easter weekend. Read more

General election 2015

Countdown to May 7

About this blog

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The fragmentation of UK politics makes the 2015 general election the most unpredictable in living memory. Follow Jim Pickard, Kiran Stacey and the rest of the FT team for unique insights as the campaign gets underway.

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The authors

Jim Pickard is the FT's chief political correspondent, having joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the FT since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

Recent Comments

Comment by BettyseniorUnfortunately people are living an illusion if they think that any alliance between mainstream parties and minority parties to gain power, will deliver them from evil so to say. For no matter what all …

Comment by SinbadAlways interested to hear these claims of all the money being bet on the Tories.Is it just one bookies in Safe-Tory-Seat-on-the -Wold? Doesn't seem to reflect what's on the bookies websites.

Comment by Ed BallsHow strange it is that the real money being bet on the election shows that the Conservatives will be the biggest party and this has not changed for some time.