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euro6208 wrote:WPAC numbers still low compared to normal years but # of storms developing is at 30. Incredible. Prove that la nina years or close to one tends to produce storms closer to land. Still very destructive.

This WPAC season has been fairly active, but weak. Lots of South China Sea storms but we haven’t had a classical Philippine Sea Super Typhoon. Reminds me of the Atlantic hurricane seasons from 2011-2016, when it seemed the only favorable spots were the subtropics and BoC (in the WPAC’s case, the favorable spots are the subtropics and SCS).

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NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

euro6208 wrote:WPAC numbers still low compared to normal years but # of storms developing is at 30. Incredible. Prove that la nina years or close to one tends to produce storms closer to land. Still very destructive.

This WPAC season has been fairly active, but weak. Lots of South China Sea storms but we haven’t had a classical Philippine Sea Super Typhoon. Reminds me of the Atlantic hurricane seasons from 2011-2016, when it seemed the only favorable spots were the subtropics and BoC (in the WPAC’s case, the favorable spots are the subtropics and SCS).

The last time the Philippines didnt experience even a single typhoon landfall (10 min) was in 2005. (Roke doesnt look like a (1min) cat1 typhoon at Phil landfall).

Coincidentally, 2005 was the year when Atlantic also went berserk with multiple major CONUS impact.

IMO, 2005 is also quite an analog to 2017, sort of.

Last edited by mrbagyo on Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

With half of November almost through, barring something crazy in wpac (doesn't appear likely) the NATL will finish with the most ACE in 2017

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The biggest WPac December in terms of ACE came in 1997 with about 66 units. That all came from Paka though. 1986 also had a similar amount of December ACE contributed by a few different storms. Both of these seasons were above average in activity though, and third place is well below these years (~36 December ACE in 1990). Unless something crazy with no historical precedent happens, it appears a foregone conclusion that the NAtl will be this year's ACE champion.

1900hurricane wrote:The biggest WPac December in terms of ACE came in 1997 with about 66 units. That all came from Paka though. 1986 also had a similar amount of December ACE contributed by a few different storms. Both of these seasons were above average in activity though, and third place is well below these years (~36 December ACE in 1990). Unless something crazy with no historical precedent happens, it appears a foregone conclusion that the NAtl will be this year's ACE champion.

Looks like the WPAC lost this year. 4th time in world history this happens and all loses to the Atlantic and those year were in the satellite era, 1998, 1999, 2010...After recon ended in 1987.... and now 2017 vs The Atlantic (Recon ever since)...Wow is that fair... benefiting

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WPAC's recon era (ended in 1987) coincided with ATL's inactive period (ended in the early 90s), which would be another possible explanation why WPAC loses to ATL only after it is no longer covered by recon.

Besides, tropical cyclone activity of the two basins seems to be inversely correlated. During La Nina events, ATL becomes more active while WPAC tends to produce weak, short-liivd storms. Meanwhile, during El Nino events, ATL becomes inactive while WPAC tends to produce strong, long-lived storms. That would explain why WPAC loses to ATL instead of the other basins.

And, even WPAC had been covered by recon in these four years, it would still have been ATL's victory, given that WPAC was defeated by a large margin (30 units in 1998, 68 units in 1999, 44 units in 2010 and 81 units in 2017).

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euro6208 wrote:Terrible end to this season. Over 200 dead in the Philippines in an otherwise low ACE season but with a high number of storms...33.

Tembin at 80 knot has contributed 8.5825.

Season total up to 168.885...just 55% of normal.

Unfortunately all it took was one.

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Assuming no further development for the year, my totals are as follows:

NAtl: 226.37WPac: 165.9625EPac: 98.905NIO: 15.4975

It's worth noting that I have included final data (such as from Tropical Cyclone Reports) where they are available. 98W is also a possible development candidate before the year closes out, so these numbers might not quite be final.