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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Tropical Storm Doksuri (Dindo) Update #3

Tropical Storm Doksuri (Bagyong Dindo) is now nearing NE Luzon. It was last located approximately 280km east of Aparri, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Doksuri is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5am today, Signal #2 is now raised for Cagayan, Calayan Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Isabela, Batanes Group of Islands, Apayao, Kalina, Ilocos Norte, Abra, and Mt. Province. Signal #1 is in effect for La Union, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Benguet. These provinces will experience gusty winds and widespread rains throughout the afternoon. Always listen to your local officials for the latest warnings and forecasts!

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image reveals that the low-level center remains of Doksuri remains exposed. 20kt northeasterly shear is displacing much of the convection to the west of the storm. Therefore, much of the rain clouds associated with Doksuri is now affecting majority of Northern and Central Luzon. Many areas here are already reporting rains of 20 to 40mm. Unfortunately, rains will continue throughout the day and there could be as much as 100 or even 150mm of rain especially in Northern Luzon and mountainous areas. Seas will also be very rough across Luzon Strait and parts of Western Luzon.

TS Doksuri should continue moving to the west northwest crossing Luzon Strait (and avoiding landfall). It will then move into the South China Sea and is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Friday night or early Saturday morning. We are seeing some divergence with the computer model forecasts although the consensus is still taking Doksuri towards Hong Kong as a moderate Tropical Storm. Due to the strong shear in the region, there is very little chance that it will strengthen into a typhoon.