EUR/USD bounced from the 1.2600 barrier on the past week and fell back below the 1.2500 mark. Selling renewed on the back of the disappointing November economic activity indices in euro zone. Mario Draghi added pressure to the pair on Friday, reiterating the ECB readiness to launch QE if needed.

As a result, the pair is currently forming a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart. The picture remains bearish below the 1.2600 mark. Next levels to watch below the price are the recent low of 1.2350 and the 1.2250/20 area (200-month MA).

Germany is scheduled to release a block of data at the beginning of the new week. Pay attention to the German Ifo index on Monday and to the CPI on Thursday. On Friday the market attention will be focused on the inflation data for the whole currency block. Further decline in prices will clearly provoke a new strong wave of euro sales.

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

EUR/USD has recovered some ground this week, but remains capped by the 1.2500 mark in the late European session. According to our forecast, a break above this hurdle could open the way to the next bullish targets at 1.2550 and 1.2600. On Thursday euro zone is scheduled to release a bunch of data with the November German Preliminary CPI as a headliner. The market sentiment towards the euro will strongly depend on the news.

GBP/USD has breached the ascending triangle to the upside. The pair’s correcting up as the market seems tired of the USD longs. A fix above 1.5790 will open the way to 1.5875. Pound is now at the upper border of the short-term rising channel. If resistance holds, look at support at 1.5670 and 1.5625.

USD/JPY is consolidating in the 117.70 area. The bias is to the downside, although the pair moves very slowly. Support is at 117.35 and 117.00 ahead of 116.15.

AUD/USD is testing the 0.8500 mark to the downside on Wednesday, testing the levels unseen since 2010. We see from the monthly chart, that in November the price has fallen below the lower border of the Ichimoku (0.8540). Aussie remains under pressure because of the RBA, China and falling commodity prices. Daily close below the 0.8500 mark would be a strong selling signal. On Thursday Australia is scheduled to release Q3 private capital expenditure data (forecast – negative).

On Thursday the market attention was glued to the OPEC meeting in Vienna. As many expected, oil cartel members left the output quotas unchanged. As a result, oil prices decline resumed. USD/CAD jumped back above the 1.1300 mark on the news. Note that the US markets have been closed on Thursday (Thanksgiving Day celebration), so the OPEC’s decision will strongly impact the market on Friday.

EUR/USD consolidated below the 1.2500 figure on Thursday. The single currency could gain some ground on German retail sales data and French consumer spending early on Friday, but be ready for new losses on euro zone’s CPI at 10:00 GMT. Strong resistance – 1.2550 и 1.2600, while support lies at 1.2440 and 1.2350.

AUD/USD attempted to recover on Thursday, but failed to overcome the 0.8600 resistance. Next levels below the price– 0.8520/00 and 0.8470.

GBP/USD was rejected by resistance in the 1.5800 area and slid below the 100-period MA on H4. The pair returned to the middle of the rising channel. Support is at the current levels of 1.5730 and at 1.5680/70. A break below will confirm a flag and make the pair to renew lows. Further resistance is at 1.5875.

USD/JPY found support in the 117.20 area. Resistance is at 118.20 and 118.55. Further support is at 116.10. The market players will watch Japan’s inflation data due during Friday’s Asian session – a bit lower figures are expected – such outcome will help USD.

Despite the generally bearish indicators, the currency pair refrained from updating its lows last week, consolidating below the lower border of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. Friday's trading ended in the 1.2450 support area, but now the recovery is being hindered by the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines as well. Therefore, consolidation at this level will be considred as a signal for sales. All the more, the cloud began to expand downwards again.

Oscillators are yet neutral, but MACD is in the negative zone, which somewhat increases the bears' chances.

EUR/USD remains in the 1.2400/2500 range ahead of the major risk event of the week – ECB meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, you should also pay attention to the Services PMIs (08:15 - 10:00 GMT). What’s more euro zone is scheduled to release retail sales data at 10:00 GMT, the forecast is upbeat.

GBP/USD met resistance at the 20-day MA and returned below 1.5700 as British construction PMI disappointed. Pound remains range bound and will likely return to 1.5630/00 and 1.5585 ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday. On Wednesday the UK will release services PMI (09:30 GMT), a slight increase in expected. Resistance is at 1.5830.

USD/JPY was once again supported by the H4 Ichimoku Cloud which is, however, getting thinner and thinner. Positive expectations about the US data are now the main bullish factor for the pair. Resistance is at 119.25, 119.85 and 120.00. Support is at 118.20 and 117.70.

AUD/USD has once again attempted to push higher, but returned back below 0.8550 later in the day. Early on Wednesday Australia is scheduled to release Q3 GDP (consensus: +0.7%, Q2 - +0.5%). However, the overall tone could be easily spoiled by Chinese November Services PMI that follows. Official October reading came at 53.8, while the HSBC estimate was lower (52.9). The topic of Chinese economic slowdown remains important for the market, so the Aussie could come under more selling pressure on the news.

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