NBA Role Probability Model 2017

The NBA Role Probability Model predicts the likelihood that a given college basketball player becomes an NBA All-Star, starter, bench player, or does not make the NBA. The model uses individual college basketball season-long box score statistics, team-level statistics (e.g. strength of schedule), physical measurements, high school scouting ranking, position, and age/experience to predict the probability of each NBA role. For more detail on this model, see here. This model is one of three pieces that we use to evaluate the NBA potential of college players, with the other two being PNSP and Similarity Scores. In the table outlined below, you can find our predicted probabilities of the 2017 NBA Draft prospects landing in each category.

Highlights

Lakers fans. Lonzo Ball. Wow. With an 83.5% All-Star probability, Lonzo is in rare company of players such as Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and DeMarcus Cousins with an All-Star probability above 70%. As if we needed more evidence, these numbers serve as further confirmation that the NBA Draft Lottery is rigged in favor of big-market teams. Right behind LaVarr Jr. are PNSP favorites Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz, both of which have high probabilities in both the All-Star and Starter category. If you are not on the Jonathan Isaac train yet, just wait till you see his top player comps from our Similarity Scores.

Josh Jackson, a consensus top prospect who falls outside of PNSP’s top 10, shows up with a fairly high All-Star probability and extremely low “bustability” (or-non NBA probability). Jackson’s most likely outcome (highest probability) is becoming a starter, or ultimate role player, which makes sense given his questionable shooting efficiency at Kansas. With that said, the NBA Role Probability Model does see All-Star potential if Jackson can develop his shot. Interestingly, Jayson Tatum has the highest starter probability among 2017 draft prospects, and, like Jackson, he has a very low bustability, but his upside appears somewhat limited, as our model gives him only the 17th highest probability of becoming an All-Star.

Dennis Smith Jr’s high All-Star probability and high bustability fit the bill of a high risk / high reward prospect, which may not be worth a top-five pick in an outstanding draft class. Two other players that fit that mold by the NBA Role probability standards are Zach Collins and OG Anunoby. Collins’s limited minutes in his lone season at Gonzaga creates a cloud of uncertainty; the tools are there, but we just haven’t seen it in a large sample size yet. OG Anunoby’s tantalizing physical profile make him a top defensive prospect, but there are real concerns over whether he will ever develop any semblance of an offensive game.