Clinton needs to win Ohio, and big

Friday

Feb 29, 2008 at 12:01 AMMar 1, 2008 at 11:27 AM

Winning Ohio's Democratic primary won't be enough for Hillary Clinton. She must score a big victory Tuesday in the Buckeye State if she is to close the delegate gap on front-runner Barack Obama, a Dispatch analysis shows.

Winning Ohio's Democratic primary won't be enough for Hillary Clinton. She must score a big victory Tuesday in the Buckeye State if she is to close the delegate gap on front-runner Barack Obama, a Dispatch analysis shows.

Although taking Ohio would certainly provide a boost to Clinton after 11 straight defeats, winning a significant majority of Ohio's 162 delegates to the Democratic National Convention may be even more important than winning the popular vote.

Ohio's Democratic delegate math indicates that Clinton must win the state by a double-digit margin to gain much ground on Obama. Both candidates are shooting for the 2,025 delegates needed to win the party's presidential nomination. By most counts, Clinton trails Obama by about 100 delegates nationally.

It's possible, although unlikely, that a Democrat could win Ohio's popular vote and still lose in the state's delegate count because the structure is proportional, not "winner take all."

Get out your calculators.

On Tuesday, 92 delegates from 18 congressional districts will be up for grabs. Each district is assigned delegates based on the number of Democratic votes cast in the district in the 2004 presidential election.

For example, eight delegates are at stake in the Democrat-heavy 11th District in Cleveland, while areas of western and southeastern Ohio offer one to four delegates because they have fewer Democrats.

The 15th District, which includes the western Columbus area, has four delegates.

But here's where it gets complicated.

A candidate who wins a majority of the 15th District vote will get two of the four delegates. But a candidate who wins 60 percent still gets only two delegates. Why?

To win three of the four delegates, Obama or Clinton will have to win at least 63 percent of the vote, a nearly 2-to-1 ratio.

In the 11th District, which has the largest concentration of black voters, capturing 60 percent of the vote will result in winning five of the eight delegates.

Chuck Todd, political director and chief delegate number-cruncher for MSNBC, agreed that Clinton must win big in Ohio to cut into his national delegate lead significantly. "If she wins 52-48 (percent), she will only get about six more delegates than him," Todd said.

Gerald J. Austin, a veteran Democratic consultant, said it's difficult to compare this election with previous contested primaries. In 1984, Gary Hart won the Ohio primary by defeating Walter Mondale, the eventual nominee. That translated to Hart winning 81 delegates to 77 for Mondale, said Austin, who was Hart's Ohio campaign manager.

Democrats also have 49 at-large and pledged delegates. Those delegates are awarded based on the statewide percentage vote of each candidate. Delegates can't switch their support to another candidate.

If Clinton were to win 60 percent of the statewide vote, she would get 29 of the 49 delegates.

Finally, there are the 21 much-discussed unpledged superdelegates: 11 members of the Democratic National Committee, seven members of Congress, plus Gov. Ted Strickland and two "add-ons" to be appointed by state Democratic Chairman Chris Redfern. The 21 can support whomever they want.

Jim Ruvolo, a former state Democratic chairman who is working with the Clinton campaign, said the former first lady "has to have a significant win" in Ohio to shift the delegate count in her favor.

"But it's also about who's got the momentum," he said. If Clinton takes two out of the three remaining big-state primaries -- Ohio, Texas (also on Tuesday) and Pennsylvania (April 22) -- she will win the nomination, Ruvolo predicted.

ajohnson@dispatch.com

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