The situation in Syria has reached a watershed moment and a dramatic escalation of the war appears imminent. Let’s look again at how we reached this point.

During the first phase of the operation, the Syrian armed forces were unable to achieve an immediate strategic success. This is rather unsurprising. It is important to remember here that during the first weeks of the operation the Russian did not provide close air support to the Syrians. Instead, they chose to systematically degrade the entire Daesh (Note: I refer to *all* terrorist in Syria as “Daesh”) infrastructure including command posts, communication nodes, oil dumps, ammo dumps, supply routes, etc. This was important work, but it did not have an immediate impact upon the Syrian military. Then the Russians turned to two important tasks: to push back Daesh in the Latakia province and to hit the illegal oil trade between Daesh and Turkey. The first goal was needed for the protection of the Russian task force and the second one hit the Daesh finances. Then the Russians seriously turned to providing close air support. Not only that, but the Russians got directly involved with the ground operation.

The second phase was introduced gradually, without much fanfare, but it made a big difference on the ground: the Russians and Syrians began to closely work together and they soon honed their collaboration to a quantitatively new level which allowed the Syrian commanders to use Russian firepower with great effectiveness. Furthermore, the Russians began providing modern equipment to the Syrians, including T-90 tanks, modern artillery systems, counter-battery radars, night vision gear, etc. Finally, according to various Russian reports, Russian special operations teams (mostly Chechens) were also engage in key locations, including deep in the rear of Daesh. As a result, the Syrian military for the first time went from achieving tactical successes to operational victories: for the first time the Syrian began to liberate key towns of strategic importance.

Finally, the Russians unleashed a fantastically intense firepower on Daesh along crucial sectors of the front. In northern Homs, the Russians bombed a sector for 36 hours in a row. According to the latest briefing of the Russian Defense Ministry, just between February 4th and February 11th, the Russian aviation group in the Syrian Arab Republic performed 510 combat sorties and engaged 1’888 terrorists targets. That kind of ferocious pounding did produce the expected effect and the Syrian military began slowly moving along the Turkish-Syrian border while, at the same time, threatening the Daesh forces still deployed inside the northern part of Aleppo. In doing so, the Russians and Syrian threatened to cut off the vital resupply route linking Daesh to Turkey. According to Russian sources, Daesh forces were so demoralized that they forced the local people to flee towards the Turkish border and attempted to hide inside this movement of internally displaced civilians.

This strategic Russian and Syrian victory meant that all the nations supporting Daesh, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the USA were facing a complete collapse of their efforts to overthrow Assad and to break-up Syria and turn part of it into a “Jihadistan”. The Americans could not admit this, of course, as for the Saudis, their threats to invade Syria were rather laughable. Which left the main role to Erdogan who was more than happy to provide the West with yet another maniacal ally willing to act in a completely irresponsible way just to deny the “other side” anything looking like a victory.

Erdogan seems to be contemplating two options. The first one is a ground operation into Syria aimed at restoring the supply lines of Daesh and at preventing the Syrian military from controlling the border. Here is a good illustration (taken from a SouthFront video) of what this would look like:

According to various reports, Erdogan has 18’000 soldiers supported by aircraft, armor and artillery poised along the border to execute such an invasion.

The second plan is even simpler, at least in theory: to create a no-fly zone over all of Syria. Erdogan personally mentioned this option several times, the latest one on Thursday the 11th.

Needless to say, both plans are absolutely illegal under international law and would constitute an act of aggression, the “supreme international crime” according to the Nuremberg Tribunal, because “it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.” Not that this would deter a megalomaniac like Erdogan.

Erdogan, and his backers in the West, will, of course, claim that a humanitarian disaster, or even a genocide, is taking place in Aleppo, that there is a “responsibility to protect” (R2P) and that no UNSC is needed to take such clearly “humanitarian” action. It would be “Sarajevo v2” or “Kosovo v2” all over again. The western media is now actively busy demonizing Putin, and just recently has offered the following topics to ponder to those poor souls who still listen to it:

There is no need to continue the list – you get the idea. It is really Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, Libya all over again, with the exact same “humanitarian crocodile tears” and the exact same rational for an illegal aggression. And instead of Sarajavo “martyr city besieged by Serbian butchers” we would now have Aleppo “martyr city besieged by Syrian butchers”. I even expect a series of false flags inside Aleppo next “proving” that “the world” “must act” to “prevent a genocide”.

The big difference, of course, is that Yugoslavia, Serbia, Iraq and Libya were all almost defenseless against the AngloZionist Empire. Not so Russia.

In purely military terms, Russia has taken a number of crucial steps: she declared a large scale “verification” of the “combat readiness” of the Southern and Central military districts. In practical terms, this means that all the Russian forces are on high alert, especially the AeroSpace forces, the Airborne Forces, the Military Transportation Aviation forces and, of course, all the Russian forces in Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet. The first practical effect of such “exercises” is not only to make a lot of forces immediately available, but it is also to make them very difficult to track. This not only protects the mobilized forces, but also makes it very hard for the enemy to figure out what exactly they are doing. There are also report that Russian Airborne Warning and Control (AWACS) aircraft – A-50M – are now regularly flying over Syria. In other words, Russia has taken the preparations needed to go to war with Turkey.

At the same time, the Russians have also launched a peace initiative centered around a general ceasefire starting on March 1st or even, according to the latest leaks, on February 15th. The goal is is transparent: to break the Turkish momentum towards an invasion of Syria. It is obvious that Russian diplomats are doing everything they can to avert a war with Turkey.

Here again I have to repeat what I have said already a million times in the past: the small Russian contingent in Syria is in a very precarious position: far away from Russia and very close (45km) to Turkey. Not only that, but the Turks have over 200 combat aircraft ready to attack, whereas the Russians probably has less than 20 SU-30/35/34s in total. Yes, these are very advanced aircraft, of the 4++ generation, and they will be supported by S-400 systems, but the force ratio remains a terrible 1:10.

Russia does, however, have one big advantage over Turkey: Russia has plenty of long-range bombers, armed with gravity bombs and cruise missiles, capable of striking the Turks anywhere, in Syria and in Turkey proper. In fact, Russia even has the capability to strike at Turkish airfields, something which the Turks cannot prevent and something which they cannot retaliate in kind for. The big risk for Russia, at this point, would be that NATO would interpret this as a Russian “aggression” against a member-state, especially if the (in)famous Incirlik air base is hit.

Erdogan also has to consider another real risk: that, while undoubtedly proficient, the Turkish forces might not be a match for the battle-hardened Kurds and Syrians, especially if the latter are supported by Iranian and Hezbollah forces. The Turks have a checkered record against the Kurds whom they typically do overwhelm with firepower and numbers, but whom they never succeeded in neutralizing, subduing or eliminating. Finally, there is the possibility that Russians might have to use their ground forces, especially in the task force in Khmeimim is really threatened.

In this regard, let me immediately say that the projection of, say, an airborne force so far from the Russian border to protect a small contingent like the one in Khmeimim is not something the Airborne Forces are designed for, at least not “by the book”. Still, in theory, if faced with a possible attack on the Russian personnel in Khmeimin, the Russians could decide to land a regimental-size airborne force, around 1’200 men, fully mechanized, with armor and artillery. This force could be supplemented by a Naval Infantry battalion with up to another 600 men. This might not seem like much in comparison to the alleged 18’000 men Erdogan has massed at the border, but keep in mind that only a part of these 18’000 would be available for any ground attack on Khmeimin and that the Russian Airborne forces can turn even a much larger force into hamburger meat (for a look at modern Russian Airborne forces please see here). Frankly, I don’t see the Turks trying to overrun Khmeimin, but any substantial Turkish ground operation will make such a scenario at least possible and Russian commanders will not have the luxury of assuming that Erdogan is sane, not after the shooting down of the SU-24. After that the Russians simply have to assume the worst.

What is clear is that in any war between Russia and Turkey NATO will have to make a key decision: is the alliance prepared to go to war with a nuclear power like Russia to protect a lunatic like Erdogan? It is hard to imagine the US/NATO doing something so crazy but, unfortunately, wars always have the potential to very rapidly get out of control. Modern military theory has developed many excellent models of escalation but, unfortunately, no good model of how de-escalation could happen (at least not that I am aware of). How does one de-escalate without appearing to be surrendering or at least admitting to being the weaker side?

The current situation is full of dangerous and unstable asymmetries: the Russian task force in Syria is small and isolated and it cannot protect Syria from NATO or even from Turkey, but in the case of a full-scale war between Russia and Turkey, Turkey has no chance of winning, none at all. In a conventional war opposing NATO and Russia I personally don’t see either side losing (whatever ‘losing’ and ‘winning’ mean in this context) without engaging nuclear weapons first. This suggests to me that the US cannot allow Erdogan to attack the Russian task force in Syria, not during a ground invasion and, even less so, during an attempt to establish a no-fly zone.

The problem for the USA is that it has no good option to achieve its overriding goal in Syria: to “prevent Russia from winning”. In the delusional minds of the AngloZionist rulers, Russia is just a “regional power” which cannot be allowed to defy the “indispensable nation”. And yet, Russia is doing exactly that both in Syria and in the Ukraine and Obama’s entire Russia policy is in shambles. Can he afford to appear so weak in an election year? Can the US “deep state” let the Empire be humiliated and its weakness exposed?

The Empire has apparently concluded that Daesh is not strong enough to overthrow Assad, at least not when the Russian AeroSpace forces are supporting him, so it will now unleash the Turks and the Saudis in the hope of changing the outcome of this war or, if that is not possible, to carve up Syria into ‘zones of responsibility” – all under the pretext of fighting Daesh, of course.

The Russian task force in Syria is about to be very seriously challenged and I don’t see how it could deal with this new threat by itself. I very much hope that I am wrong here, but I have do admit that a *real* Russian intervention in Syria might happen after all, with MiG-31s and all. In fact, in the next few days, we are probably going to witness a dramatic escalation of the conflict in Syria.

The Essential Saker II: Civilizational Choices and Geopolitics / The Russian challenge to the hegemony of the AngloZionist Empire

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China must back Russia in this war because Americans and West intentions is to change the Map of Middle East.By putting Rebels Puppet regime sponsored by turkey and Saudi Arabia.Saudi Arabia is slaughtering children and women in Yemen the world is silent.The truth will prevail in Syria thanx to The Mighty Russian military God is on your side to win in Syria.

Thank you for your latest weekly review. I was watching the Munich Conference yesterday and it was abundantly clear that the US was full of bullhorn. On one hand Kerry is having press conferences talking about a ceasefire and then stands there at the podium saying Assad must go. Lavrov pointed out that there has been no such “humanitarian” reaction in regard to the blockade in Ukraine and Crimea or the 7 million in Yemen. I think even A.I. – Medvedev has woken up to the West.

At the same time the conference is going on Turkey and Saudi Arabia are saying they are sending ground troops. Then Turkey starts shelling the Kurds and SAA. Again today Turkey is starting again:

Damascus has confirmed their army has been targeted by Turkish shelling – off to the UNSC asap to lodge this act of aggression. Now what are the UNSC going to do with the letter? As you say above Saker – it is illegal and constitutes an act of aggression. I am watching to see what China is going to do now?

I think the Russians have their subs etc. all ready for whatever happens next. too. Their force may be small but I truly believe the Russians have everything planned for all scenarios. They have tried so hard to avoid war – but you can’t control the other side.

At the same time an interesting piece on the collapse in Iraq of Iraqi Kurdistan – so Turkey is losing there too with all their oil pipeline etc going to go up in smoke shortly. Don’t forget Iraq has already complained about Turkey’s complete disregard for their sovereignty.

So Turkey I believe will go ahead and attack because the US isn’t stopping them – they talk from both sides of their mouths……if it all goes wrong – they will drop Turkey like a hot potato. Carter has already been ratcheting up the NATO card too.

If Russia is attacked – its allies in Syria and elsewhere will need to also help – won’t they?

(…) So Chinese, always so subtle, again leaving the subtlety and posted a video of maneuvers with the release of one of their feared missiles, the Dong Feng 21D. The Dong Feng, “East Wind”, has the ability to sink aircraft carriers.
China becomes a clear warning to the US that its maritime superiority is long gone because the “East Wind” has a range of 1,500 kilometers and a complete effect.

The video is interesting for several reasons, not just for the “East Wind”. First, in the area, snow indicates that they are in a high mountain area, so it is more than likely that the base that houses the missile is carved into a mountain, safe from any hypothetical attack. Second, it shows unusual scenes of the components of the People’s Liberation Army and there is a detail that would have to think the US and its vassals: They are shown pictures of the families of the soldiers, which suggests that they are far from their usual areas and a long time away from them.”

Wahabis and turkfasist are being thrown under the bus by you know who.When all the dust settles turki will be in full revolution and the wahabi perfumed princes will be at each others throats.Syria will end up as a strong power in the region thanks to Evil putin and Iranians.Time to get some popcorns!

Wrong :^(
America wants Russia under it’s boot. Syria needs to be destroyed and taken over by America.The goal is–put Russia O.O.B. in the oil/gas feeding EU. When America controls Syria. a gas oil pipeline would feed EU. Them oil rich middle east countries can not wait for the new oil pipe line. Now you know why Saudis and the rest are funding the rebels.
what’s in it jUSA—American dollar trade in oil gas.

Wrong, its all Israel and its puppets, USA, UK, Kanada, etc. Israel to be from the Nile to the Euphrates and the seat of a zionist one world dictatorship in Jerusalem. Judaism was invented in Turkey and Saudi Israel just another province. The house Saud are zionist jews so totally controlled by Israhell.

What the US needs is to embroil Russia in a massive proxy war and Turkey and Saudi Arabia are perfect for that. So I believe they will carry out major military action in Syria. They will probably do their best to avoid any direct confrontation with Russia. But they will attack the SAA. If it works they will have a massive war which will drain Russia as it supports Assad, while they will have the copious resources of NATO behind them.

At the same time they will likely launch an escalation against Russia in Ukraine. They would expect that such a two pronged attack against Russia would do the job of exhausting Russia or at least collapsing Putin’s support well before the elections in 2018.

This is if it works. The problem is that it likely will not. If the Turks and Saudis begin suffering major reversals on the ground, the US will have to show its hand, or the Turks/Saudis will have to fight Russia directly.

The scene is being set for global war. Something wicked this way comes. I don’t believe NATO has the intestinal fortitude to directly attack Russia, it is more likely that we blunder into such a war.

The war between Russia and Turkey/Saudi would bring fruits, if we assume that Russia wins.

Why ?

That way we have more permanent victory in Syria.
Otherwise Syria might become a zone of constant suicide attacks and gorilla battles for many years to come.
Russia has to kick Wahhabi ass hard and do it in a way Hitler Nazism has been defeated – crash it without mercy incl. civilians ( like kids running behind terrorist tanks and screaming Death to Assad )

Why no mention of the implications regarding the activation of the Syria-Iran Mutual Defense Pact? Surely an invasion by Turkey and/or Saudi Arabia will mean they’ll also be attacking Iran with potentially dire consequences.

Do the Russians still have the ability to place land mines from airplanes?

Yes, And from multiple rocket launchers too

Why don’t they do this along the borders that Syria shares with Turkey and KSA?

Mainly because they are already over-worked elsewhere and because that would risk mining an area which they would want the Kurds and Syrians to retake.

Do you think that the Russians have a plan to do this (land mining)?

Unlikely.

What would be the biggest problems and repercussions of taking this action?

Mainly that it would be labor intensive and not necessarily effective against a fairly modern military like the Turks.

Rather than trying to lock the entire border, it is more likely that the Kurds could try to fortify and mine some sectors with the hope to force the Turks into another sector and then they could turn the latter into fire pockets, especially if there are Russian forward air controller operating alongside the Kurds.

Saker, your analysis gives me the creeps. I seriously never thought that the turks, saudi and americans were so mad to eventually do that. That will easily ignite world war 3. If Saudis and turks get in, Iran and hezbollah will be there and probably Israel will be involved in the short term. The battle for Hmeynim, if happens, will be a battle to remember. I dont know how fast a russian air space task force could be deployed from the caucasus to Syria, but they could Easily attack northern Turkey, no doubt about it. But against lots of F-16Cs, Advanced F-15E and Ef-2000, the russian air force in Syria will have a very hard time. I just hope this wont happen, but i am sure of the capabilities of RF and sincerely hope that China will use its political and economic might to help them. Saker, i sincerely hope this war will not happen. But if it does, the mankind spirit for freedom and truth will help us win, even if its the last breath.

Hugs and congratulations for all the members of the saker team to make this window of thought possible.

The F16’s and any other military aircraft in Turkey could be easily grounded in the short term by runway penetrating cruise/missiles -likely without casualties even. I am unsure if such a suitable long range weapon exists in the Russian inventory -and there’d also be the other problem with a possible NATO response leading to the big one.
Going after refuelling tankers and AWACS would also put a crimp in the Sultan’s ambitions.

As a least evil, perhaps the Sultan and known hostile leaders from Qatar, Saudi etc. could all meet somewhere to discuss strategy as it would save on cruise missiles -only one would be needed and civilisation could continue without WWIII.

These vermin are already living the vermin’s life, coming up for air only when necessary. that option is far from real. The only rational hope for preventing this scenario is for the Turkish Army to stop Er.dogan’s madness, A General is not a General if his troops are vaporized. I am sure there are people working on this option, if this won’t happen, Turkey will be served with Gravy on black Rye Bread, and kebabs.
wouldn’t it be nice if Constantinople returned to its homeland, dream on, Crimea and Constantinople liberated, by Russia.
Anybody curious to know what the Catholic Pope and the Orthodox Patriarch talked about, in Cuba of all places?
It has been speculated that the Pope is afraid of the Vatican being looted of its Gold holdings, by whom? Anybody’s guess?
Too many things going on at this time. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died over the weekend. He was alone, at a couple’s retreat, supposedly for quail hunting, at a ranch resort 200 miles from civilization, in the Big Bend of Texas. Happy Valentine’s.
The National Media in US reported that he was feeling ill on Friday night, and retired early to his room. They started to worry after he did nopt show up for Breakfast and Lunch.
While the local Media, report that the ranch owner found him dead after breakfast!
Scalia was a combative conservative, appointed by Reagan. P[ot/us wants to fill the vacancy asap,
Klingon and Feel the Bern fully behind this. The Repbs, fully against.
This changes the balance of power for generations, Ginsburg might retire, or might be retired by her illnesses, this would be the time. Or else, the Repbs, if they come out winners in the Pres. elections, and succeed at holding up the election of Scalia succesor, could also change the direction of the Supreme Court.
May you live in interesting times, Ancient Chinese Proverb.

The shelling of Syria army positions looks like a calculated provacation, while the shelling of Syrian Kurds looks like a prelude to a major ground attack.

Obviously, the zionazis have a working plan here. For them, the beauty of this strategy is that it puts expendable (and rival for Syrian real estate and resources) turkey in the front lines, not israel or their main colony, the usa.

Not Israel, of course: the Sunni countries are it’s boots on the ground – and in truth the US is also Israel’s tool:
Moshe Ya’alon: “You know that we have a very clear strategy regarding Syria. We don’t want to intervene. [But] we have the Sunni Arab camp, the most significant camp in the region, looking for leadership. And it appears to be that we, Israel, are on the same page with this camp. … In order to avoid… Western boots on the ground – …and you can’t defeat the Daesh without boots on the ground, let’s empower the local boots on the ground, mainly the Sunnis, also the Kurds.”
Transcript of a meeting between Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Ya’alon with the Brookings Institution (4/12/2015 ) – http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2015/12/04-saban-2015-israel-us-yesterday-today-tomorrow/transcript

I must completely disagree with your assessment concerning the YPD/PKK. I haven’t the time at the moment to explain, but I’ll be back later, Eimar. Quickly, though, why does it seem the IS takes territory and the Kurds then take that territory next? Fishy smell, Eimar.

Is there not sufficient evidence available to suggest both IS and KurdISh are supported by and working in conjunction with NATO?
Barzani, has become mostly a non-factor in the scheme. Are you suggesting Gorran is a major player?

“The Turkey outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Change Movement, Kurdistan Region’s main opposition party, announced their support to Syria- pro- Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD).

In a meeting held between PKK officials and a delegation from Change in Qandil Mountains, the PKK bases in Kurdistan Region, the two sides supported attempts by Democratic Union Party (PYD), known as PKK branch in Syria”

I can provide more documentation to the connectivity of Gorran and the PKK if needed

This site appears to be a legitimate New York City radio news site. It carries the breaking story with updates beginning about noon EST (New York time). The latest update is at 6:16 PM (18:16 EST).

Here are a few excerpts:
URGENT: 1:56 PM Eastern US Time, 13 February 2016 — Stratfor is now confirming Russia has dispatched a ship to the Mediterranean, to deliver NUCLEAR-TIPPED CRUISE MISSILES.

UPDATE 2:34 PM Eastern US Time — In an utterly UNPRECEDENTED move, Turkey has begun notifying NEWS AGENCIES (Like Ours) to make certain we are at worked and properly staffed tomorrow because there will be very big news and a huge escalation in Syria. This is amazing to us; governments don’t do this sort of thing. They aren’t saying exactly what will happen but the thought is a major air offensive with the Saudis ahead of ground troops. Some pathfinder forces are already on the ground in Syria

URGENT UPDATE: 2:45 PM Eastern US Time — UK military members told to cancel all plans and all leave, prepare for deployment to Syria!

UPDATE 6:11 PM Eastern US Time — Emergency Action Messages (EAM) – the highest priority message in the entire United States Military Command Structure, requiring IMMEDIATE attention and action — have been broadcasting non-stop for about the last ten minutes on 8992 KHz USB.

I sincerely hope this source is not legit. But it could well be. According to this source, given that tehre are like 20000 tanks + 150000 – 250000 troops on the Turkish side (including the KSA + others), the only way Russia can stop this is to use tactical nukes.

I recall reading that Russia had a bomb that was just as potent as nuclear one but not using nuclear technology.
If that is true, this weapon would be a better choice than tactical nuke as it would not bring the same sort of world condemnation.

The soviets were very advanced in fuel air explosives and had them in WW2.. But the US was unable to get it potent enough so they downplay that the soviets were better. Even though we see many examples of soviets being more advanced then the US, no one believes it since if it aint us then no one can mentality. The bob is similar to the MOAB’s used by the US all over the place but is 4 times as powerful ie instead of clearing a 100m radius, it clears a 500m radius.. But I don’t know if Russia has the means to deploy them. It is as big as a car and weighs like 11,000lbs.. has the explosive power of 44kt of TNT,, I know Russia tested some after the US made a bigger better version since 2002 or so… Again, you can only use them if you already have air superiority..

First of all, thank you cirdanx, for the link. I hope it is false but it looks to me as if it is genuine.

I have another link but, to be honest this site, Veterans Today, has been known to post some rather controversial opinions, in fact some of their claims seem outrageous at times, but when it comes to news they usually get it right most of the time. Most of the writers are US veterans so they sometimes have some unique but unverifiable sources.

Editor’s Note, 2:30 pm ET: VT is back up after being hacked for several hours when one key story was up — the one below on the Saudis moving tactical nukes to Turkey, to be closer to the NW Syrian battleground, and the NATO tripwire for any attack that might be launched on Syria after some staged provocation.

Armenia member of the CSTO and home of fully deployed and operational S-400 air defense systems would undoubtedly become a second front for control of Bosphorus which according to Montreux Convention- Erdogan would attempt to close to countries hostile towards it. In addition to the conventional warheads the Kalibr cruise missiles also are nuclear capable, the Black Sea Fleet just sent Zelyovy Dol a missile Corvette equipped with Kalibrs to augment its existing naval presence. As far as Erdogan establishing a no fly zone over Syria there is also the Krashuka electronic warfare platform currently deployed in Latakia which would make such an undertaking impossible.

Weapons of mass distraction meme resurfacing.
And all this cacophony of ca-ca right before/into a US long weekend.

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Islamic State terror group in Iraq and Syria (ISIS/ISIL) has used chemical munitions in battle and may have access to chemical agents, Central Intelligence Agency director John Brennan warned.

“We have a number of instances where ISIL has used chemical munitions on the battlefield,” the CIA chief told CBS. “There are reports that ISIL has access to chemical precursors and munitions that they can use.”

According to the CIA, the terror group has the ability to manufacture small quantities of chlorine and mustard gas, and has shown willingness to use them in battle.

Thanks ypur frank and depressing analysis as most of us have apparenty underestimated the degree of irresponsible and erratic behaviour from Turkey, Saudi and USA. However perhaps they are pushing brinkmanship to the utmost limit with ‘skirmishes’ tolerable. Doubt if Turkish generals , those not purged, will tolerate heavy casualties or humiliation. Can assume that mercenary pilots and specialist forces for the Saudis. Here in Faux-Fogh Rasmussens little Denmark any excuse combined with media blackout will ‘justify’ this ‘latest intervention’.

Today Kerry ordered his EU vassals to keep the sanctions going almost forever.

That spouting off from one or the other ends of Mr. Ed was because just 2 days ago one of the minor minions there in Europe spoke out of turn & suggested that Kiev had better live up to Minsk, or the sanctions against Russia would come off!

Good Summation- good comments on it.
Before it all goes pear-shaped, The current supplier of neutron tactical “ordnance” to the house of Saud (Not Pakistan.) for demo drops in Yemen-Have they supplied more of these bombs or warheads?
Has training of pilots ,and stock modification of F15 fighters to use them being done by the suppler? Or will the Saudis have to Hire the supplier to use such ordnance?
Any Chinese naval deployments in the Persian gulf region? Joint training missions with Iran?
Has their being evidence of the Saudis and Israelis stockpiling vaccines and/or treatment serums recently ? If so which ones? Was Turkey given a heads up about any such stockpiling, or would they be dependent on these-“Patrons?”
How able are Iran and Syria to coordinate decapitating sweeps from east to west at present?

While the focus now is on the breaking of Turkish supply lines to Aleppo, there appears to be an immense danger of a wider conflict brewing in the battle for the control of two other Syrian cities that lie east of Aleppo on the Euphrates river: Al-Raqqah or Raqqa (6th largest city in Syria), located 124 miles to the east of Aleppo on the Euphrates river, and Dier Ezzor (7th largest city in Syria) 200 miles east of Aleppo.

This story is being best reported by the Moon of Alabama blog http://www.moonofalabama.org/ I will copy this below, and any excerpts with quotation marks are taken from this source.

Control of the Raqqa by US and its allies would likely result in a permanent fracture of Syria, possibly leading to the creation of a Sunni state in east-Syria and west-Iraq, likely to be put under the influence/control of Turkey. This would constitute a major defeat for Syria and Russia. “The aim of outside forces, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, the UAE, the U.S., Britain, France is to occupy east Syria to gain political concession from the Syrian government and its allies. They will demand the reconfiguration of the independent, secular Syrian state under President Assad into a dependent Sunni Islamist entity. Should that demand not be fulfilled they will form a new “Sunnistan” Islamist protectorate from the currently ISIS held carcasses of east Syria and west-Iraq.”

It appears that the US is about to use its 101st Airborne to lead Saudi troops on an attack on Raqqa. Because Raqqa is controlled by ISIS, the US can claim that it goes there to fight ISIS.

“The Saudis would fight under the control of the one brigade of the 101st airborne that was not announced to go for Mosul. The Saudis would deploy from Saudi Arabia via a U.S. controlled airstrip in west Iraq or through east Jordan towards Syria while the brigade from the 101st would probably deploy from the Kurdish area in north Iraq through the Kurdish areas in north-east Syria towards Raqqa. Raqqa would thereby be attacked from a north-eastern and a south-eastern. The airport of Rumeilan/Abu Hajar would be one of the major supply bases.

The US troops are likely to move from the south-east to the Euphrates to first capture Deir Ezzor and then move on to Raqqa.

Such a move of forces would be quite large and over relative long distances. But most of the area is desert and modern motorized military equipment could easily cover those distances in a day or two. This would put Saudi troops into Syria. If they would take Raqqa or Deir Ezzor and the eastern Syrian oilfields they would NEVER let go of it unless Syria would bend to the Saudi demand of introducing an Islamist led government.”

Meanwhile,1600 British troops armed with heavy weapons are arriving in Jordan and an additional brigade of the US 101st Airborne is deploying to Iraq. The Brits are likely to lead Saudi/UAE troops from east Jordan up through the Syrian desert towards Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, where no Syrian or Russian forces could prevent them from making such a move.

The Syrian army is on its way to ISIS held Raqqa to prevent any foreign force reaching there first.

In other words, we may be about to witness US and British forces (leading Saudi/UAE forces) come into direct military conflict with the Syrian Army, which is being supported by the Russian Air Force, and possibly Russian Airborne troops if they are deployed to Deiz Ezzor and Raqqa.

Furthermore, “Turkey today threatened further and wider attacks on Kurdish held areas in Syria. The Turkish 2nd Army is positioned to attack Syria from the north. It could come through the ISIS held corridor between Azaz in the west and Jarablus in the east and move south towards the Islamic State held Raqqa while other forces, see below, would reach Raqqa from the south and south east. Syria would be thus split into a government held western half and an ISIS and U.S. allies held eastern half.

Russian advisers have trained one Syrian brigade specifically for the purpose of holding off a Turkish invasion. But that brigade is probably not a big enough deterrence for the large Turkish forces and could soon be overwhelmed.”

Although it may be too late to prevent this, I think it is crucial to speak out against the deployment of the US 101st Airborne into Syria leading Saudi troops.

Defeat of the Anti Fascist Alliance (Russia, Syria, Hezbollah, Iran, and others), in Syria will open the gates to World War III. Victory will keep those gates shut.

The Zionist American Terrorist War against Syria is comparable to the Fascist assault on Republican Spain in 1936. It was the defeat of the Spanish Republic in 1939, that opened the gates to the launching of World War II. The fascist forces were not able to conceive of attacking Poland, France, or Russia, until the Spanish People were crushed, and their military options, simplified.

There is no alternative, for the Human Race, to Victory in Syria, any more than there was in Spain. These lessons are well known by all the contending forces in Syria. The battle for Syrian National Existence is part of a larger battle for the continued existence of the Arab Peoples and their countries. The Arab peoples and their Nations, (as with the earlier fate of the Native Americans), have long been marked for Annihilation (in this case), by the Zionist American Fascist Front.

By way of analogy, in the preparations for a Second World War, Hitler’s Nazis, and many of America and England’s leaders envisioned the eradication of Russia, (at least), from the map of Europe.

The imperialists did not fail by much. The Americans and British held off on opening the Second Front as long as they could, and only landed in Normandy, when the Russian armies were entering the Eastern German provinces (of Prussia), when it became apparent that the Russian Army was capable of marching to the Pyrenees, if necessary.

The Saker is correct to believe that “dramatic escalation appears imminent.” The escalation has begun. NATO is sending troops and weapons to the Baltic Principalities, Poland, Kiev, Sweden, and Finland, at an increasing rate.

Back in the USA:

The electoral circus continues unabated, with the CIA Candidates (that includes all of them), not discussing Foreign Policy at all. Socialist Sanders did let slip that Crimea should be taken away from Russia. And, of the official candidates, Trump is the least vociferously anti-Russian; but he is not The One!

There is no Help to be found here. Even Gandalf would find it almost impossible to rescue America from its Zionist Overlords. After Kennedy, after the Coup d’etat of November 22, 1963, the Deluge.

Advising Resistance is easy enough from this Peninsula, but did the Spanish People have any other options in 1936, as they decided to defend their Republic? And do the Russian people have any other options?

The “watershed moment” has arrived. Can humanity continue to bite the bullet, or will the bullet, finally, bite humanity.

Try reading the war diaries of Lord Alanbrooke CIGS and get back to us all really soon with your expert opinions on how he and his closest advisors got it deliberately wrong and pulled the wool over the eyes of the emergent superpower USA on the creation of a meaningful second front in the west. Will read your analysis with interest.

Well right on time for this article we are seeing the Turks shelling the SAA and Kurdish positions inside Syria. What (if anything) the response by Syria,Iran,or Russia will be is unknown. I would advocate Russia,Syria,and Iran (backed by China) demand a UNSC meeting right now. And at the meeting Russia remove the gloves.And demand Turkey cease their aggression against Syria.Set a time limit (a few hours) for them to comply.But even more importantly Putin should be on the phone with Obama and ask him point blank,”are you looking to go down in history as the President responsible for WW3. And the results that would follow from that.” If he is,then there is no way around it. We are going to end with that no matter what. If he isn’t ,tell him “leash your dog,before I’m forced to kill it”.And let him and NATO know that a Turkish closure of the Straits would be accepted by Russia as an aggressive attack against Russia by Turkey. And Russia will understand that as an official declaration of war by Turkey against the RF.Then the NATO nations leaders will need to decide if a Turkish aggression counts for them to side with Turkey. If it does we are at WW3. If not they need to also help “leash the dog”,and do it “now”. The time for gloves is quickly running out. The time for “real talk” is quickly coming.

(Side note) If anything this “should” clearly show “once again” that Russia can not trust a single agreement made with the US (and any NATO state) concerning peace. Every agreement they make is a trick or stall until they can come up with some other aggressive plan. It “should” be plain by now. But the Russian capacity to “want” to trust them seems endless. So I don’t know if they see the message this time or not. We’ll have to wait and see on that.Of course some will argue that they have always understood that. But that doesn’t matter. As long as they keep accepting those agreements the results end the same. And that is all that counts. Its similar in that way, to a Hollywood horror movie .Where the victim “always” goes into the “creepy” darkened house alone, with the killer inside,and gets killed. One would think, knowing a killer is possibly/probably lurking around somewhere close. The victim would be smart enough to not go into the creepy darkened house alone. But sure enough,they always do it.Every time I hear about one of those “fake” agreements being made, I think of those movie scenes.

Yes, I have been saying something similar about having “agreements” with the USA. One only needs to remember what happened to the American Indians, who signed treaty after treaty since Columbus arrived…

Quote. “But the Russian capacity to “want” to trust them seems endless. So I don’t know if they see the message this time or not. We’ll have to wait and see on that.Of course some will argue that they have always understood that. But that doesn’t matter. As long as they keep accepting those agreements the results end the same. And that is all that counts.”
Becayse Rusdian leadership is full of traitors like lavrov who feels honouredto lick anglos boot.
Russia is doomed because of her weaklingbehaviour and bevause of her lack of brain to understand the machinations of her archenemy England whon Russia should have massively nuked to destruction at firatsign of worldwar 3.

“But even more importantly Putin should be on the phone with Obama and ask him point blank,”are you looking to go down in history as the President responsible for WW3. And the results that would follow from that.”

You got it right.Putin and Obama had a telephone conversation today.Has been said that the both leaders have agreed upon the necessity to solve the situation peacefully and agreed to fight together against Daesh. – In other words,there is nothing new here,at least,on what they released for public.It’s another question what they really spoke together.We will see on the coming hours and days,cause,one is to say something and another is the fact on the ground – as they use to say.

thing is, Putin playing all this “international law” scenarios…..in these circumstances I am not convinced UN is capable of understanding or even implementing this in part or whole-it may get broken , then what?

I hope that the minute Turkish (and perhaps Saudi) forces cross over the Syrian border, the Russians throw a few dozen cruise missiles at them. The Turks could not then say Russia has attacked them because they didn’t attack Turkey proper. It would give NATO a chance to back down without losing face.

Turkey is demanding Kurds leave Syria? Turkey admits to shelling Syria? I’d say that qualifies as war.
Those tanks in the picture below are lined up rather nicely like a row of metal ducks at a carnival, don’t you think?
It would be a shame to waste such an opportunity.

I think what we are seeing is the slow rolling start of a Turkish ground invasion, but they are going to keep pushing, probing, waiting for Russia to respond. A false flag bombing of refugees along the border with a Ukie SU-25 dropping Soviet made bombs that can be shown by Bellingcat and other fraudsters after the fact as incontrovertible proof of Russian evil and the necessity of a Turkish no fly zone over Aleppo and north of it would be well timed now. I still am watching for two key events:

1) Russian Black Sea Fleet and merchantmen for the Syria Express surging out into the Med trying to get out of the Dardanelles and avoid being bottled up by the Turks, or the Turks trying to stop such a surge knowing that Russian warships will be more capable in the Med than in the narrow confines of the Black Sea where both sides would be vulnerable to anti-ship missiles, the Turk patrol boats to Bastions and the Russians to U.S.-made Harpoons or French Exocets in Turkish possession.

2) Turks landing as many of their F-16s at Incirlik AFB as possible, not just due to the proximity to Latakia but more importantly to put as many American servicemen human shields between their best jets and the hundreds of Kalibrs the Russians have ready to launch from ships or barges in the Black Sea and Caspian Seas as possible…(last I read a tweet recently which said the Russians were running round the clock, 3 shifts cranking Kalibrs out)

Really praying for peace, because although all sides could lose, there would be no real winners…except those who wish to fight Russia to the last Turk.

I don’t think cruise missiles will be very effective against armored columns attacking across the desert from the South, which is where the greatest threat lies, IMO. The topography in the North isn’t conducive for a blitz by the Turks plus SAA is there in force whereas it’s absent in the South.

Looking at a regional map shows no major road/hwy going from Saudi through Jordan or Iraq into Syria from the northernmost juncture of the Saudi/Jordan/Iraq border, which offers the shortest route to Raqqa. Looking closer, it appears there isn’t even a track through the desert; so, the logistics of any Saudi invasion would need time to get everything to the start line as has been mentioned. Invading through Iraq makes sense if speed is essential as it would seem to be, but Iraqis have vowed to oppose any such move. Going overland through the desert is dependent on topography and preparedness of Saudi armor to such a task–sand has a nasty way of fouling mechanical systems with such casualties capable of greatly depleting the power of an invading force.

Finally, any such move by the Saudis seems to be dependent on similar action by the Outlaw US Empire, as stated by the Saudi foreign minister. Logic would dictate that Saudi use its forces to stem its losses in Yemen, but there’s nothing logical about Saudi.

Outlaw, if the Saudi Mafia regime commits aggression against Syria, perhaps Russia could lend some cruise-missiles to Syria to take out the Saudi oil export facilities. One or two into the ‘King’s’ palace wouldn’t go astray, and the crazy Crown Prince wouldn’t be missed either.

No media coverage in the USA at all about Turkey’s shelling of Aleppo nor Turkey’s assertions that they will invade. Saudi Arabia has transferred a couple squadrons of fighter aircraft to Incirlik airbase and has massed a force of 350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks and 6000 helicopters on the Syrian border ostensibly as an exercise. I can’t think of an “exercise” this big before in this region ….ever. Coincidentally in the USA the media has been putting out wall to wall election coverage and today A conservative Supreme Court Justice was found dead in his home. The media will not cover anything else for several days. I would expect an invasion within the next 5 days and it may well coincide with another large downward movement of the Stock markets around the world. The sheep are ready for the slaughter.

Regarding KSA not bordering Syria, my point was that any potential invasion of Saudi military forces into the Syrian territory would have to pass either through Iraq or Jordan. There is no way Iraqis would sanction it and thus, at least theoretically, it would be KSA declaration of war against Iraq. If the Saudis go through Jordan without Jordan permission, it would be KSA declaration of war against Jordan. If Jordan authorizes such pass-through, then they will become a legitimate target for Syrian and Russian forces.

Of course the Corporate media in the USA/Great Britain/Canada and others will not mention any of this. As one has witnessed in the past the Corp Media has done everything in its power including posting outright lies to Demonize Russia and in particular Putin.

When that moment finally arrives that Russia strikes back defensively against the baiting war tactic by the USA and its NATO allies, in particular that useful idiot Erdogen, the USA and the corp media everywhere will shout out loudly, Oh look we told you those EVIL S.O.B.s Russia, and Assad are threatening the fragile balance in the ME, we need to strike back at them and do it NOW, and the blind sheeple in the USA will jump and say yes we need to get those evil bastards, take our sons and daughters and send them into that meat grinder.

The problem here is that the only way the USA and NATO can even match Russia, China, Iran in an all out war is to use Nuclear weapons and when that happens expect a few love bombs in your everyday back yard main street America.

When it goes nuclear it will definitely be a bad day to be a member of the species on planet earth cause this world war will be in fact a WORLD war…

I think without real NATO army, Turkey’s invasion of Syria is impossible.
First of all they just don’t have the hardware to establish a no fly zone. They have a lot of very old aircraft that can serve for nothing more than decoy. Even if they attack the russian air force in Syria, taking out the SU-s + S400 will practically cost them their own air force. Very few aircraft will return back to Turkey. And on the next day Russia can send more aircraft and more S400/500 to Syria and Turkey will have no more air force. So it will be a one-day NFZ.
Secondly, they can invade that strip on the picture, but they CANNOT hold it forever. Turkey will be the one drawn in a long war. Even if Iran doesn’t send formal army, they will arm Hezbollah and help Assad the way they have been already, and after 6 months of occupation and non stop body bags, Erdogan will be forced to get out, and most likely he will lose his power. I can’t see that war against Russia being popular with the turkish people. Nobody wants to die. People need to remember that Hezbollah defeated Israel in 2006, and in that conflict Israel used Air Force, while this time Turkey wont have air force against them. If anything, Syrians will have air force (whatever they have) against Turkey. Again, that is assuming that Russia and Iran stay official out of the Turkish occupation.
Turkey needs to make up some ‘tonkin incident’ to draw NATO in. And remembering what Erdogan did with that SU-24, running to NATO right away, I think that despite him being mad, he is also cowardly, and he himself doesn’t have the courage to start a war with Russia.
If someone told me NATO will not get involved, I would have zero fear about this conflict, or Ukraine. It is really early to talk about Russia overextending. 50 aircraft is just a little stretch. Pentagon testified before congress that Russia can maintain their activity in Syria indefinitely because it is actually really low cost. That is the one time i believe the Pentagon.

Turkey vs Russia inside Syria will be a short war. Arab planes have moved to Turkey. They will be shot to piece if they fly into Syria. In fact, SA planes rarely fly without being surrounded by US planes. They are a joke.

Erdogan may risk a brief war. It will be the final act of his own destruction. He’s playing Porkoshenko in any war with Russia. His men will die, he’ll have most of his armor destroyed, he’ll be shown to be a fool.

NATO will not act. Nor will the US. Obama does not want another war and Turkey will be immersed in war if Turkey attacks Russians in Syria. Russia will arm the Kurds from head to toe with heavy weapons and turn them loose against Turkey.

As for a two-front war (Ukraine and Syria), Russia will finish both swiftly. An attack (offensive) by the Ukies faces a Russia force integrated in the Donbass Army. It has Russia “volunteers” by the thousands now. It has Russian officers commanding. The reason no one can locate the Russians is because they make up over 10% of the Army of Donbass. And they will get RF military backup if needed.

Putin and Shoigu, brilliant men both, have game planed this situation and are ready to counter Turkey and whoever threatens the Russians and Syrian stability. That is settled policy. Turkey is capable of being crippled but cannot prevail.

With victory in Syria so close, Putin is not going to allow Erdogan or NATO or Obama to disrupt it.
Someone is going to get hurt really badly if they attack.

Check the closeups of Putin when he announced his orders to the field commanders in Syria to destroy any “threat” to men or defenses. That was right after the jet bomber was shot down.

That, and his face when he announced the conclusion of the investigation into the commercial plane bombing in Sinai. That is a very serious Putin in those two clips.

Now the culprit behind these loses is coming to take a piece of Putin?

Erdogan will be deeply punished. And anyone who gets in the way will suffer the same.

With the insanity of NATO, Obama and his puppeteers, the murderous and incompetent Saudis, and Erdogan, I’d say all bets are off.

It’s quite evident that Obama and his presstitutes, with Israeli-shill war mongers like Hannity, Beck, Limbaugh, Hedgecock ALL prostituting themselves to make Putin look…well…like themselves, want this thing started.

Obama (avec les marionnettistes) WANT SYRIA; a pipeline (breaking Putin’s Gazprom), oil, as Israel is ALREADY illegally drilling, so THEY especially need this war, because it will allow them to take over more land and resources.

Amazingly enough, the ONLY sane players seem to be the ones accused of all the wrong doing.

Occams, as you indicate, the root cause of this insane march to war is the psychopathy of the ‘leaders’ of the West, and in their sewer of a propaganda system. I frequently read the Guardian or Observer, long the voices of ‘liberalism’ in the UK (but not any more)quite amazed by both the lurid mendacity and arrogant hypocrisy of the filth they produce, but the sheer viciousness of the hatred that they spew with robopathic predictability. These are wicked and insane, human monsters, carefully and unnaturally selected by an evil, evil, system, that over the last forty years has purged or side-lined what decent human beings still desired to undertake public service in the West.

Like Litvinenko, I suspect mad dog Erdogan and the boy king are worth more to dead than alive. Both have been giving some cheek to the boss lately.
A Turkish/Saudi invasion may make Russia bleed a bit before their destruction, then their destruction can be blamed on Russian aggression.

Remember the news from last Wednesday, & you see another reason for Erdo & his wax dummy sidekick to have gone rabid since then, with things gearing up by the day.
Syria’s Kurds open first European office in Moscow

11/02/2016 10:32

DUSHANBE, February 11, 2016, Asia-Plus – According to international media outlets, Syrian Kurds opened a mission in Moscow on Wednesday.

According to The Telegraph, the representative office in an industrial district of eastern Moscow is the first of several foreign missions the Rojava Self Ruled Administration, the self-proclaimed government of Kurdish-held northern Syria, plans to establish in Europe.

Report / regional states has asked the opposition not to hand over any sites

Above the drumbeat of war in Syria after the words of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev that he «should compel all parties to sit down at the negotiating table instead of causing the outbreak of a new world war».

The Russian warning came after the confirmation of a spokesman for the Saudi defense minister Ahmad Asiri «The kingdom announced the creation of the new Islamist alliance to fight terrorism and is ready to carry out air and ground operations within the international coalition led by the United States in Syria.»

In the midst of it, says a leading source in the joint operations room, which includes Russia, Syria, Iran and «Hezbollah» «opinion» that «the arrival of ground troops and entry to Syria possible scenario, and we are working on how to deal with him, but he will not get the overnight» .

And explains the leader of the «source transport ground troops and nutritional support and logistical her preparation for entry into Syria under combat title (Daash), it needs to be organized and to the time ranges from 3 to 4 months, to be ready to enter the Syrian border and head to the existence of regions (Daash) within the area of ​​operations where there is no Syrian army or the Russian forces or even the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or units (Hezbollah’s) own, in order to avoid a collision with it, and spread Talia east of the Euphrates River, where forces (Daash) », adding« that such a thing will be divided Syria into two parts we call Grbustan and Cherqstan, where stationed at the first regular troops in the second part the forces that come under the title fight (Daash), becoming Syria, similar to what happened in Berlin after World war II and divided into dozens of years. Which it forces a reality that must be dealt with without causing a global war, and that the coming months will be on a date with opening the doors of hell on jihadists in Syria of victory – Al-Qaeda front in the Levant and its allies from Ahrar al-Sham and the front maize and Army immigrants and supporters Chechens and the Caucasus the Jund al-Aqsa and other Army of conquest, especially that any cease-fire agreed in Munich between the United States and Russia, which could lead to a ceasefire and humanitarian aid and the resumption of the stalled negotiations will not include its impact Daash and the victory, and their allies ».

And reveals the leading source «opinion» that «the likely entry of these forces would be through Iraq but from the Jordanian border eastern Syria, because (Daash) is located in Al-Anbar and can not pay ground forces to come under striking aspects during the deployment and progress to take the petition, and because access to Syria via Turkey without obstacles to the spread of Kurdish forces of Kobani to Hasaka. Therefore, the most likely is a compilation wilderness Egyptian and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and Jordan and other forces in Jordan for easy road transport combat equipment, without the exclusion of entering the special forces landing in the northern Kurdish areas and would be responsible for the appointment laser processes, especially within the lines (Daash) backed aviation military aviation drone ».

The source adds «The aim today the joint forces backed by Russian air and artillery is closing an area of ​​8 kilometers that separates the Syrian border from Turkey to close the supply lines, and Iran is ready to increase the level of its presence on the land of Syria to accelerate the achievement of this».

From reading a hundred + posts other sites, looks like the rush to git ‘er done before any imagined ceasefire in a week (as imaginary as the Saud mahdi army 350000 strong marching over the dunes like sand scorpions in a hideous mirage):

2 big northern Syria border crossings where the goods were flowing in, including of course lotsa crude tankers & the resultant cash flowing in to the sultan’s family bizzniss, one Azaz (now severed), & one to go the big push is on for which is Hawa.
Both clear here, bluish squares, one N of Aleppo 30 mi (I’zaz= Azaz).
Unlabelled one 30 mi W of Aleppo is Hawa, at that sharp border bend.

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The international body charged with establishing who is responsible for chemical attacks in Syria says it has identified at least five potential cases for investigation — four where chlorine gas was allegedly used against rebel-held areas and one involving mustard gas.

The investigative body established by the United Nations and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said in its first report circulated Friday and obtained by The Associated Press that it plans to start the next phase in March including in-depth analysis of the cases, field visits, witness interviews and obtaining relevant information from U.N. member states and others.

1. Russia’s forces in Syria (and don’t forget the “rusty old fleet” in Caspian sea) are perfectly capable of denying Syrian airspace, or at least most of it, to NATO but the problem in actually doing it, as you rightfully say, is political and not the practical one. Destruction of nearby airfields (read “Incirlik”) would certainly be at the top of priority list for various reasons, which would constitute an attack on a territory of a NATO-member, Turkey. I agree that it is difficult to see NATO/US invoking Article V to protect that idiot Erdogan, but I also don’t see them having a choice if faced with a situation like this. In any conflict, it is best to leave a retreat open to the adversary because his actions are then “funneled” in a predictable direction, etc. etc. In the case of shooting down Turkish aircraft over Syria NATO would have some sort of way to deescalate, but again Erdogan would seek revenge leaving the Russia no choice but to strike decisively, and we would be back to destroying the airbases and all the consequences of that action.

Welcome to the WW3.

2. Regardless of what the Russian quick-reaction airborne forces were designed for, don’t forget that they would be deployed in a friendly nation who has been supplied by Russia for a long time, and logistic problems would be minimal if non-existent. Fuel is available, food as well, and all the ammo already on the ground is compatible with Russian weapon systems. I am certain that logistics would not be a deciding factor in a decision whether to deploy airborne forces.

On the other hand, if Russia actually drops a batallion or ten on the ground in Syria, it would mean a beginning of a whole new scary ball game. I hope the Russians are not pushed to actually do this.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s foreign enemies have sent rebels new supplies of ground-to-ground missiles to confront a Russian-backed offensive by the government near Aleppo, stepping up support in response to the attack, two rebel commanders said.

The commanders told Reuters the missiles with a range of 20 kilometers (12 miles) had been provided in “excellent quantities” in response to the attack that has cut rebel supply lines from the Turkish border to opposition-held parts of the city of Aleppo.

Facing one of the biggest defeats of the five-year-long war, rebels have been complaining that foreign states such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey have let them down by not providing them with more powerful weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles.

I must completely disagree with your assessment concerning the YPD/PKK. I haven’t the time at the moment to explain, but I’ll be back later, Eimar. Quickly, though, why does it seem the IS takes territory and the Kurds then take that territory next? Fishy smell, Eimar.

China has said it will back Russia and supply ships to help from the sea. I live in a Democracy but in this instance I will back Putin. I do not see him as the aevil one in this instance. The Media are full of lies and Bullshit like Obama. The West just seem to want the Power and Money from the Middle East .America caused most of this.They have done stuff all to stop it. Putin is at least doing something to stop the Atrocities of ISIS and other Terrorist Groups even if it goes against America and EU.

Absolutely, Peter. ‘Democracy’ for the masses in any meaningful sense exists nowhere on Earth, certainly nowhere in the West. Russia, with Putin continuing to enjoy massive popularity, actually comes closest. In some ‘democracies’ there are powerful cliques who vet ALL candidates for ideological reliability, and purge all potential candidates who do not meet their requirements. In Iran it’s the ‘Guardian Council’, in the West, particularly the USA, it is the rich, primarily the Jewish wealthy.

Most westerners live in oligarchic capitalist states. Do not confuse the system of parliamentary republics with that of democracy. Do not confuse economic (neo)liberalism and individual rights with democracy. The current political systems are neither representative nor democratic.

Ancient Athens (and several other ancient greek city states) had a democratic political system.

No modern state has a democratic political system.

The western propaganda talks and talks about “democracy” but they have co-opted the term democracy without implementing it.

What is democracy ?
Read about the “Constitution of the Athenians” by Aristotle.

Well the ancient Greeks invented the term democracy to refer to a particular type of consitution based on a) the direct voting on legislation by the citizens, b) officials are chosen by lot not elected.
Since they invented the term, they presumably knew what a democracy was.
You raise the quite different question of who was a citizen.

The USA also for a long time after its constitution was adopted prohibited slaves, women and metics ( foreigners) from holding citizenship rights. The basic oligarchic constitution of the USA has remained through the period of citizenship extension. A democracy in the USA would replace the congress by a Boule chosen by lot, and leave most major issues like peace or war to be decided by referenda.

“Ancient Athens wasn’t a democracy either–women had no rights and were kept more like the many slaves.”

Ancient Athenians created democracy. It is absurd that they weren’t a democracy.

The status of women and slaves is not relevant. Slavery was widespread. Many non-democratic ancient greek states (such as Sparta) had slaves but also other countries such as Ancient Egypt, Ancient Rome, Ottoman Empire, British Empire, USA and many more…….

As for women’s suffrage, Switzerland granted women’s vote in 1971 (and the last Canton in 1991).
By the way, Switzerland has a system of referendums but it is not a democracy either.

Because Western propaganda systematically and falsely uses the word “democracy” to describe their oligarchic political system, the true concept of democracy has been distorted.

Democracy was and is still despised by western elites because it means that power will be transferred to the people. Modern Western states are called “republics” (not democracies) and some things in common with the Roman republican political system but most elements are derived from the British parliamentary system. The modern head of states are more like elected Monarchs.

Anonymous, thanks for providing so much grist for the mill, in a post just 6 lines long!

You end: “Putin is at least doing something to stop the atrocities of ISIS and other Terrorist Groups even if it goes against America and EU.”

Friendly Correction: “It” does not “go against America”. Putin’s policy goes against the evil of the Anglo-American banking elite who seek regime change in Damascus, Teheran, Moscow and ultimately, Beijing, as the only way to hold their Quadrillion dollar Ponzi scheme together long enough to impose and consolidate their hellish world domination of lies, violence, slavery and genocide on the entire planet. Obviously, that is not “against America”. Or Europe. it is only against the mis-rule of our rulers, which Putin exposes in this short clip from a few months ago.

Putin ends with a recap of the Russia/USA history of friendship at 6 min 33 sec.

Earlier at 4 min, he invites the US reporter to “one day head your government. Maybe then we can reverse the situation.” Americans and Europeans should take up the spirit of that offer and cut out the bullshit of succumbing to MSM lies.

Yes, sad but true. The best that can be expected of India is to stay “neutral”. Its media is, of course, more western than the western one itself. Millions, perhaps ten million, of its elites have family in western countries and its economy is deeply intertwined with the west. No one should expect anything from India. I have similar reservations about China, alas.

It may be interesting to note that Debka claims that the US and Russia have some agreement to keep the Euphrates as border. Of course, even if such agreement was there, neither side could be expected to keep it if a clear opportunity opened itself.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that this collaboration has been in place since December, when Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin concluded a secret pact for working together to end the Syrian war. This pact was first revealed by DEBKA Weekly as setting out a division of military responsibility between the two powers: The Americans took charge of areas east of the Euphrates, leaving the Russians responsible for the territory west of the river. The Munich accord provides this pact with a formal framework

Except the US bombs in supposedly Russian areas so that don’t make sense.. Heck they even bomb their own turkbeer’s. And with fighter jets such a small area is not even feasible for operations. Also Russia provides huge air support to the Syrian outposts besieged all over the country some very far away and also drops humanitarian aids there like food and medicines. So I highly doubt this is accurate. And another thing is, although al queda is amongst most all Syrian moderate terrorists they have vast swaths which is under their control only. And this area slices around between all the moderate terrorists. If al queda is driven off those areas, what happens? The SAA cant take over the area because they would then be surrounded. Too many holes.. They have an agreement to inform the other party when they are over Syrian air space where and around when but I doubt anything else is set in stone.

Greece went broke after trying to pay for all the French jets, German vehicles and European submarines NATO made Greece purchase to protect Europe from Turkeys Islams. As soon as Greece went bust the invasion started….good bye Europe. Only the banks will survive.

One of the many weaknesses of ME armies is that they are meant for population control; picking on helpless civvies, not opposing real armies. This is thought to be one of the reasons for the Israeli ‘defeat’ in Lebanon in 2006. Erdogan would be risking his army across the border while fighting domestic unrest. Real war means real attrition of assets he needs for maintaining national unity.

There’s also the precedent of being led out on a limb by NATO to ambush that Russian SU-24, only to be rebuffed and left to roast by his allies. Again, why risk attacking with no certain backup?

Many NATO members don’t consider Turkey a worthy partner anyway. So again, why take risks for them?

There is no threat to Turkey save those Erdogan and his cronies make for it, trying to protect their illicit business war profiteering empire. Is the Turkish military willing to try and breach Syria’s A2AD for that?

The only benefactor would be NATO, who could then watch Russian forces in action against more or less modern cannon fodder.

Unlike Saudi Arabia, which spends mercenaries like twigs to a fire in Yemen, Turkey does not have an ‘expendable’ corps. Turkish military leaders may find toppling Erdogan looks much safer.

NATO could claim Erdogan acted aggressively and abandon him, step in if things looked winnable, or intervene to save his regime from counter invasion or coup. In the latter scenarios, either way, Turkey would lose sovereignty as his country became a NATO protectorate. Erdogan may be an idiot, but his security professionals can’t all be.

There’s nothing NATO will do about Aleppo even if Assad was the monster he’s inaccurately portrayed as being. Unless the Americans seriously think, the Germans and French think war is perfectly OK while American surface naval assets are mostly absent from that end of the Mediterranean, but theirs are on-station ostensibly to fight DAESH.
The moment a war with Turkey becomes a NATO war, all surface assets are probably gone.

The beauty of NATO at its formation was that for the first time in history, a de-facto pact of non-aggression between all great Western powers was made. Its not necessarily written in the contract, but strongly implied that they are allies who do not plot against one another and so can act in unity and trust.

How far are NATO members willing to let the unwritten trusts unravel? Today its just the unworthy Turks. Tomorrow, the unworthy French? Its doubtful that the Euros will go beyond talk in staking blood and treasure to prolong American hegemony.

“There is no threat to Turkey save those Erdogan and his cronies make for it, trying to protect their illicit business war profiteering empire. Is the Turkish military willing to try and breach Syria’s A2AD for that? ”

There is plenty of threat to Turkey the nation state- There is the threat of a coup
The threat of balkanziation
And the already obvious betrayal of Turkey by NATO

And many here read way to much into the Russia/Turkey situation, heavily played up by western media.

I don’t attribute value to these things- they simply are geopolitical realities
When one claims there is no threat- I demonstrate there is plenty of threat to a nation state.
Your reference to the msm means nothing to me and appears entirely out of context

It seems to escape your notice entirely that the threats to Turkey that you so painstakingly seek out are all of Turkey’s own making. Internal unrest: well, who is to blame but the Turks themselves? Coup danger: any state that can’t trust its own army is not fit to survive. Betrayal of Turkey by Nato? Well, unless you have glimpsed into the future by magic, it hasn’t happened yet. If it does happen, I personally would be delighted because the alternative could be a big war. As for the Turkey/Russia situation being played up by the western media. You must have secret access to some special western media because for the most part Turkey’s thuggery is largely being ignored by the western media. Try to state your point some other way, whatever your point is.

“Coup danger: any state that can’t trust its own army is not fit to survive”

Really? The history of coups in Turkey long precedes Erdogan- Perhaps the issue is the hidden state behind the state. And the presence of NATO affiliated Kurds and Grey Wolves. Ergenekon etc., Or is black vs white just easier for you?

“Try to state your point some other way, whatever your point is”

Hmmmm…. Oddly enough, I thought my point was quite clear and concise? Perhaps it was just not to your liking?

You say those things with such conviction.. Not that kurds are my favs at least since they killed some Christian commanders and don’t allow their checkpoints resulting in IS bombing Christian towns… But like everyone who is biased, you missed a few things.. I think it is a Freudian slip.. kind of thing.. but do go on..

That’s because they are supportable facts- Based on what we know- There are external links to support the contentions and most everyone who is geopolitcally enlightened is aware of Turkey’s history at least on a rudimentary level

When it comes to advanced radar and weaponry (particularly the S-400 missile and other anti-aircraft defense systems), Russia has not yet demonstrated these systems full capabilities, which I assume are quite impressive. I suspect the latest escalation being carried out by Turkish and Saudi forces are being encouraged by the NATO and the US primarily for the purpose of luring Russia into demonstrating these system’s capabilities.

@C.P.
I totally agree with you. But the Russians will not go for this horseshit. Some slavic people have a saying “you can fool an old sparrow with a horseshit”.
The point is to keep the goodies for the “real problem instigators or as some people would say shit-disturbers”, who do not know that you should not disturb it because it starts to stink.

Why did Kissinger hump his aging 92-year carcass onto a plane to go meet Putin a couple of weeks ago? He is the 14-carat emissary who can be trusted not to flub the party line. You have to think the NATO-US-Russia pirouette has been calibrated in advance. The stakes are simply too high without coordination. Kissinger at a minimum laid out the Empire’s red lines. Are Turkey and SA being set up for failure? Oh to be a fly on that wall. Much would be answered.

Yes I did read that earlier. Thank you. It sounds like bold speculation. It also seems unimaginable that they would restrict themselves to financial topics while the Turkish/Syrian border is on the boil. I like Putin, certainly the way he is posed as the last bastion of pre-globalist humanity. At the same time, he has been posed so effectively and seamlessly in this counter-role that, in my darker moments, I wonder if he’s simply been assigned the bad cop role in an overall globalist dialectic.

This just in… Assad has stated that Obama and Kerry must go after reading Trump’s the Art of the Deal. And if the US will put Hillary in Gitmo and water board her, more favorable peace terms will be on the table.

Comparison between Sarajevo and Aleppo is not correct. Sarajevo was attacked by terrorists and it was successfully defended by ARBiH and never occupied. In Aleppo terrorists first occupied the city, and now SAA is trying to get it back. So statement that situation is the same is false.

“Weepy” western propaganda is being used to increase the drumbeat for a “humanitarian” Turkish/NATO invasion of Northern Syria, to “rescue” stranded refugees near the border that Turkey will not allow in, says Tony Cartalucci in a new article entitled “TURKEY is the SOURCE, not the Solution to ISIS and the Syrian Crisis” .

“The same CNN claiming Syria and Russia are responsible for the current crisis, admitted in their article, “You thought Syria couldn’t get much worse. Think again,” that (emphasis added):

To the east of Aleppo, Kurdish forces are, with American support, eyeing the remaining ISIS strongholds along the Turkish border — Jarablus and Manbij. The U.S. wants ISIS out, to remove its access to resupply of materiel and fighters FROM TURKEY!!!!!!

The question all of CNN’s readers should ask, and any real journalist, were there any at the media organization, would have answered, is: “Why, if the US is stationed in Turkey, doesn’t it and its Turkish allies, NATO members since the 1950s, interdict and stop ISIS’ access to ‘resupply of materiel and fighters’ on the Turkish side of the border?”

The answer is as disturbing as it is obvious – the US and Turkey created ISIS, are arming and funding it to this very day, and are using the existence and atrocities of their own proxy forces as a pretext to further compound the misery, division, destruction, and humanitarian crisis in Syria, including the subsequent refugee crisis that has in turn affected surrounding nations and even as far as Europe and North America.”

Russia will use tactical nukes on Syrian soil as that will be the only way of avoiding total defeat, the downfall of the current leadership including Putin, the breakup of the country and total subjugation to the West. Affecting Turkish territory will have to be avoided to ward off NATO. So they will wait for the Turks to advance far enough into Syrian territory and nuke them there.

What will happen after that is anyone’s guess. Probably there will much more severe sanctions up to and including a total cut off from the international financial system. On the other hand, the price of oil will skyrocket and the price of gold with it. That will make Russia’s holdings of gold so valuable as to permit full gold backing of the Ruble.

Having read all the comments so far, I think your prediction the most plausible and easiest to execute, Golem. Hopefully Putin will have told Obama this during their phone conversation this afternoon. Regime change in Syria has failed.

Again your analysis is correct. If Russia/Iran/China allow regime change to succeed in Syria they know that they would be next on the hit list. Tactical nukes would be used, if necessary; because the stakes are that high. Being cut off from the international finance system is the ultimate sanction but would back fire on Europe and US as Russia could then demand payment for fossil fuels in a currency other than the dollar with nothing to loose.

Thx. You are right on the backfiring of cutting off Russia from the financial system, though. Also, the price of oil skyrocketing is maybe not set in stone either. What should keep Saudi Arabia from pumping oil like mad if a few nukes go off in Syria? Nothing.

I hope that the Russian leadership recognizes the severity of the situation and that it will act accordingly and without any hesitation. I do not want to live under Anglo-Zionist rule. It would be the Anti-Christ holding sway. Even an all-out nuclear war and the destruction of the biosphere would be better than that.

My gut feeling is that what is occuring in Syria will soon be taking place on American soil. How long can Russia’s patience endure? Seems to me that at some point the Russian coalition will have no choice.

The insanity of the US/NATO wahabiist coalition is that they have no idea about the enemy they have created. Russia and China never wanted a war. Ever. Russia was forced into Syria, and being of Syrian descent, I am so grateful for their benevolence in defending their neighbor.

For years (since MH17) Russia and China have been quietly enduring a multitude of attacks from USA/NATO. Not even a single gesture of revenge. But honestly, do you think the Chinese Russian coalition have been sitting on their hands doing nothing (in relation to USA)?

I don’t. And here is the rub. Washington DC is about to lose its filthy US Dollar. The bubbles are bursting and so are their delusional minds. They need a war. In actuality they may have already commenced their global war through their presence in Syria, Libya, Yemen………but at some point Russia is going to pull the plug.

I visited Canada’s CBC news site looking for information on the current situation in Syria, there is none but fear not, there is a long story, the second on the world page, which describes how Feral parakeets are taking over the UK.

It pleases me to see that our national news services has it’s priorities in order, invasions are important, I wonder if the British have sent a letter of complaint to the UN, perhaps a emergency Security Council session is in order.

Carter claims the coalition – Saudi Islamic Military Alliance – will of course have to respond to such a ‘threat.’ (That would be in Syria I bet, if they decide Iraq is to be avoided.)

The Zionists haven’t come up with a catchy title yet for the Shia ‘extremists’ who are no doubt preparing a suitably photogenic ‘atrocity’ to justify intervention.

The Saudi spokesman for the ‘North Thunder’ drill in Hafer al-Batin justified the historically unprecedented size of the operation on the grounds that Iran is increasing its ‘demographic footprint’ by supporting Shia ‘extremists’ in Iraq.

It was the Shia Popular Militias who warned against a Saudi invasion of Iraq yesterday.

I agree with this analysis. As I’ve said all along, the US elites (and Israel) CANNOT allow Syria to remain intact and strong militarily. A strong Syria (along with Hizballah in Lebanon) seriously complicates the ultimate goal of starting a war with Iran – which IS the goal. The US military-industrial complex needs more profits and Israel needs Iran out of the picture. War is the ONLY way to achieve this. But Israel cannot start a war when they have two allies of Iran on their borders able to inflict serious damage on the Israeli economy. Thus, Syria and Hizballah have to go. There just is no alternative.

If this means risking war with Russia, the US elites will do it. NATO will not resist because the US funds ninety percent of NATO. The US will make great efforts not to start WWIII – but they could easily miscalculate their advantages over Russia and escalation sometimes has a momentum of its own. But the US and NATO WILL support Turkey and Saudi Arabia in an invasion of Syria and may even join in an air campaign against Syria – which has been the goal all along.

People who think a little detail like NATO Chapter 5 not authorizing support of a NATO state when it engages in invasion are naive. How many people do you know personally who understand that? So it will be overlooked and ignored in the media compared to the demonization of Russia.

Unless Russia pulls some sort of diplomatic maneuver out of a hat like Putin did in August 2013 in getting Assad to dispose of his chemical weapons, a war between Syria/Russia and Turkey/Saudi Arabia/NATO is almost certain to occur within the next month or so.

Richard, You have nailed it. The neocons will not , repeat will not…regardless of the consequences…give up their goal of Full Spectrum Dominance.
I’m sure Russia ,China and Iran know what’s in store for them should Syria fall.This may well be the BIG ONE. Fasten your seat belts…its going to be a rough ride….

Saker, I hope you will comment on the Havana meeting and the reactions of the public in Russia. Could we hope it is just politically motivated and not a step towards recognizing Rome? In Serbia there is sadness and deep concerns, some are yelling treason, other try to justify somehow (not counting the few that are ecumenists). In an event of escalation of the troubles in the world, the last thing Russia needs is to be stepping away from orthodoxy. I know you think ROC has already gone where it should not have, but still I doubt it is irrelevant from any point of you if ROC chooses to become one with the papists. Painful divides in the orthodox world and further weakening of those societies then seem inevitable…

The simple answer is to pray that Russia, Mr Putin, Mr Lavrov and the Russian General Staff plus all RF Ambassadors are blessed with the wit to get down on their knees and pray to their Creator for His help and guidance. Pray that he will give His wisdom to all in Russia to work together as one people and to act with outgoing concern equal to self-concern.

It is the Creator who gives the victory. He is the Rock of RF’s salvation ultimately and protection in this world. By doing what is right the RF is bringing to light the ways of AngloZionistas.

‘He who endures to the end, the same shall be saved’

There are MANY people in the vassal states that have hope from the determined courage of the RF and CIS.

Perhaps if Turkey is protected by NATO, Russia might consider using cruise missiles to take out as many of the Saud familiy Mafiosi and Wahabbist clerico-fascists as possible, leaving Saudi civilian infrastructure intake. Special Forces could comb the casinos and brothels of Europe for others.

Good article, thank you. I’d simply add that all this assumes Russia will only play “defense” and I find that highly unlikely: they would be leaving The Instigators alive, unharmed and still on their insatiable “world conquest” path. One they will never be deterred from short of being annihilated. Assad did say the Syrians will retake ALL occupied land…and I am certain he discussed that with his allies before making that statement. All occupied territory…ALL OF IT.

While the staging areas within Turkey cannot be attacked in anticipation of an invasion, they can be monitored. From these staging areas, there are only a few avenues of advance into Syria which could be used by Turkish forces, should they intend to move in large numbers to seize tactically significant terrain in a short period of time.

If the Turkish objectives are limited in terms of terrain to be seized, the Turks could seize all their objectives in just a couple of days. Then they could concentrate on defending them against any Syrian ground attacks. On their own, I don’t see how the Syrian ground forces can prevent this from happening, nor how they could drive out the Turks in protracted battle once entrenched.

Russia would have to step into the battle within the first hours of the Turkish invasion; and would have to confront the Turkish Air Force just as quickly. But, as the Saker has explained, the Russians do not have the forces on hand to thwart a Turkish invasion from reaching all their objectives and from changing the balance of power on the ground.

Expect that Turkey will close the Bosphorus to all Russian shipping the very moment that Russian forces engage directly with Turkish forces.

Russia can’t get sufficient forces to Syria -and cannot sustain them once there- without seizing control of the Bosphorus Straits, the Dardenelles, and the city of Istanbul. In short, there can be no effective Russian military response against a Turkish invasion of Syria -limited as it might be- without attacking Turkey in an all-out war.

Erdogan is absolutely certain that Putin will do no such thing. But, perhaps he is mistaken. The Russians have stated clearly that Turkish and Saudi entrance into the Syrian conflict will lead directly to world war.

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmed Davutoglu said on Monday Ankara will not allow town of Azaz in northern Syria to fall to the Kurdish YPG forces and promised the “harshest reaction,” if the group attempts to re-take the city.
Trends
Syria unrest, Syria-Turkey
“YPG elements were forced away from around Azaz. If they approach again they will see the harshest reaction. We will not allow Azaz to fall,” Davutoglu told reporters aboard his plane bound for Ukraine, Reuters reported.

He said the Turkish military would render Syria’s Menagh air base “unusable” if YPG forces do not retreat from the area, which they previously captured from Islamist militants. He warned the YPG not to move east of its Afrin region or west of the Euphrates River.”

now why is he going to ukraine??????????????
co-ordinate action with Medjlis??????

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