Buoy 51101 had a peaked swell height of 15 feet and a period of 15 to 17 seconds at 11 pm HST. It is a couple of feet lower as of 2 am HST. The near-shore Waimea Bay buoy had a reading of 12 feet and 18 seconds as of 2 am HST. So there is still some room to grow as the morning progresses, but it should peak later this morning on Kauai and Oahu’s north and west facing shores. The High Surf Warning has been updated and now goes out to 6 pm HST Thursday. By Thursday night, the surf should be in the advisory range, and this condition is likely to persist into Saturday.

A moderate to large north- northwest to north pulse will arrive Saturday evening, and max out Sunday. This swell may reach low end warning level surf for the north facing shores, and advisory level surf on the west side on Sunday.

For the east facing shoreline, surf will be small to moderate in size today through Thursday, then build up to advisory level surf over the weekend. This is in response to the expected strengthening of the trade winds to strong and blustery. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the forecast period.

A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for all Hawaiian Waters. Part of the SCA cover some of the near-shore waters due to the breezy trades of 25 kt or higher. The remainder of the near- shore waters, especially around Kauai and Niihau, pertain to the rising northwest swell, with seas reaching or going above the 10 feet threshold. SCA conditions, whether it is wind or seas, or both, will hold through the weekend, and likely through the first half of next week. This is due to the strong and gusty northeast trades building in over the weekend.

A 1025 mb surface high located 600 nm north-northeast of Oahu this morning, will be moving east-northeast at 10 to 15 kt in the next 18 hours. A ridge will trail behind the high and dissipated as a front, currently located 630 nm northwest of Kauai, pushes slowly eastward. This front is slated to move into and dissipate over the northern offshore waters on late tonight through Thursday. In response, the trades will ease off slightly today and tonight.

A strong 1030 to 1033 mb high follows in behind this dissipating front. Strong and gusty northeast trade winds are expected to spread across the local waters between Thursday and Friday. The trades will ramp up to near gale force over the Alenuihaha and Pailolo channels Friday and persist through the weekend. It is likely this windy condition will last through the first half of next week.

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.52 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.87 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.65 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.32 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 06:48 am this morning and will set at 05:45 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 28 days old, and is in a New Moon phase. The next Waxing Crescent will occur at 2:54 PM on Thursday, November 15th.

Maui Weather

°/°

Wind: n/a at 0 mph

Sunrise: Sunset:

current observations as of 3am May 25th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Wednesday, 5th December 2018

Summary

Moderate to breezy trades will slightly weaken tonight through Thursday night, then strengthen once again late Friday through the weekend as high pressure builds north of the state in the wake of a passing front. A combination of an upper trough moving over the region and residual moisture associated with the tail-end of the front passing to the north will support increasing shower coverage over portions of the state through the weekend. Strong trades will likely hold through early next week.

Detailed Discussion

Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery showed high pressure centered northeast of the islands and a lingering band of clouds/moisture lurking south of the Big Island. Recent radar imagery showed scattered showers associated with this cloud band tracking from east to west between 50 and 100 miles south of the Big Island. Elsewhere across the state, quiet conditions prevailed with minimal rainfall accumulations measured in the past several hours.

Short-term (through Friday) guidance remains in good agreement and shows a weakness within the ridge developing as a front passes north of the state later today through Thursday. Trades will respond and slightly weaken as this boundary passes. Mostly dry conditions will prevail with precipitable water (PW) values holding around an inch. Any showers that do develop will favor the typical windward and mountain locations.

For the extended period (weekend through early next week), guidance remains in decent agreement and supports a slight increase in rainfall chances over the weekend. This will be in response to a combination of an upper trough and residual moisture associated with the tail-end of the aforementioned frontal boundary dropping south over the islands. PWs are forecast to increase from around an inch to 1.1-1.3 inches as this boundary drops south over the northwest islands Saturday, then over Maui County and the Big Island Saturday night through Sunday. In addition to the rain chances this weekend, trades are expected to increase and remain gusty through this period as strong high pressure builds to the north behind the front (may near or reach Wind Advisory thresholds for some areas).

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY.
Sunny and breezy. Highs around 82. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY.
Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 at the shore to around 65 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Lows around 64 at the shore to around 52 upcountry. East winds up to 15 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph.