With each team having played 4 of their 8 games I thought it would be interesting to look at what TSM, one of NA's most popular teams and one of the oldest professional League of Legends Team, will have to do in order to make it to the quarter finals.

Group A standings

Place

Team

Record

1st

OMG

4-0

2nd

SKT T1

3-1

3rd

TSM

2-2

4th

LemondDogs

1-3

5th

GamingGear.eu

0-4

Break down of Group A
After the first half of the group stage OMG has proved itself to be a the clear favorite. SKT follows closely behind with their only loss being to OMG. TSM lies in 3rd place with an even record of 2-2 losing to OMG and SKT as many predicted, but coming out ahead in a strong showing against Europe's LemonDogs and the International Wildcard GamingGear.eu. LemonDogs lie in 4th place with only one win over the Wildcard GamingGear.eu, but still putting up a good fight in their losses. GamingGear.eu sits in last place having lost all 4 of their games. It is most likely that the two that move on to the quarter finals will be OMG and SKT T1, but TSM still has a chance and that's what I want to look at. Let's look at the different possibilities of what could happen in the coming days.

TSM goes 4-0 finishing with a record of 6-2
For this to happen TSM would have to pull out their first win against a Korean team ever, and would have to upset OMG's perfect record. This still doesn't guarantee TSM a spot in the quarter finals however. There are multiple situations that could come of this (that concern TSM) so let's look at those.Note: In this situation SKT cannot finish better than 6-2 and OMG cannot finish better than 7-1.

OMG finishes 7-1 and SKT finishes worse than TSM
Result: TSM moves on in 2nd placeNote: For this situation to occur SKT must lose to OMG as well as TSM

SKT and OMG both finish 6-2 also
Result: There is a 3 way tie between TSM, SKT, and OMG and "a single round-robin will be played among the three teams. If this does not result in a hierarchical ranking of teams (i.e., distinct 2-0, 1-1, and 0-2 team records), then the three teams will be randomly drawn into a single-elimination bracket where one team has a bye into the finals."Note: For this situation to occur SKT must beat OMG and both teams must beat LemonDogs and GamingGear.eu.

OMG finishes 6-2 and SKT finish worse than TSM
Result: TSM and OMG are tied for 1st and both move onto the quarter finalsNote: For this situation to occur both OMG and SKT must lose one of their games along with their games against TSM. SKT may lose more than one game

SKT finishes 6-2 and OMG finishes worse than TSM
Result: TSM and SKT are tied for 1st and both move onto the quarter finals.Note: for this to happen SKT must beat OMG and OMG must lose their game to LemonDogs (or GamingGear.eu somehow).

TL;DR: If TSM manages to go 4-0 in their last 4 games then they will either make it to the quarter finals or have to play a tiebreaker to get in.

Who to root for besides TSM: Root for LemonDogs against both OMG and SKT

TSM goes 3-1 finishing with a record of 5-3Note: for simplicity's sake we are going to assume that GamingGear.eu will lose all of their games

This situation is a little more complicated as LemonDogs now has a chance of finishing as good as TSM. We will begin by looking at that possibility.

LemonDogs goes 5-3
For this situation to happen LemondDogs must go 4-0 and TSM must beat both SKT and OMG. There are now 2 possibilities of what could happen depending on the outcome of the OMG vs SKT game. These two possibilities are,

OMG beats SKT and finishes 6-2 with SKT finishing 4-4
If this situation occurs then TSM ans LemonDogs will be tied for 2nd and must play a tiebreaker to decide which of the 2 will move on to the quarter finals.

SKT beats OMG causing a 4-way tie for 1st
If this situation occurs then SKT, OMG, TSM, and LemonDogs will all have a record of 5-3 with each team having a head-to-head record of 1-1 with each other. A tiebreaker will then be played in which "the teams will be randomly drawn into a "Korean-style" or "dual" bracket, where teams play Bo1 matches throughout the tournament. The four teams will be split into two first-round matches; the winners will then face off in Game 3 while the losers face off in Game 4. The winner of Game 3 will be declared the top seed; the loser of Game 3 will face the winner of Game 4 in a contest to determine 2nd/3rd place; and the loser of Game 4 will be declared 4th place."Note: this is the only way in which a 4-way tie can occur in Group A.

Now I'll look at what might happen if LemonDogs does not go 4-0, but beats TSM. There are 3 situations now to look at. If LemonDogs beats OMG, if LemonDogs beats SKT, or If LemonDogs does not beat either OMG or SKT. (Remember that in these situations TSM beats OMG and SKT).

LemonDogs loses to both SKT and OMG
If this situation occurs then the only way TSM could move on is if OMG beats SKT in their final game. If this does happen then TSM and SKT will be tied for 2nd and must play a tiebreaker to see which one will move on to the quarter finals.

LemonDogs beats SKT and loses to OMG
There are two possibilities here depending on the outcome of the SKT vs OMG game.

SKT beats OMG finishing 5-3 with OMG finishing 6-2
If this situation is to occur then TSM and SKT will be tied for 2nd and must play a tiebreaker to decide which of them will move on to the quarter finals.

OMG beats SKT finishing 7-1 with SKT finishing 4-4
If this situation is to occur then TSM will finish in 2nd place and will move onto the quarter finals.

LemonDogs beats OMG and loses to SKT
In this situation TSM will tie for second with the loser of the SKT vs OMG game and must play a tiebreaker with that team to decide which of them goes onto the quarter Finals.

Now I'll look at what could happen if TSM loses to OMG. In this situation there two outcomes in which TSM can move on. (Remember that in these situations TSM beats LemonDogs and SKT).

SKT loses to both lemondogs and OMG
If this occurs then SKT will have a record of 4-4 and TSM will finish in second causing them to move on.

SKT loses to either lemondogs or OMG, but not both
If this occurs then SKT will have a record of 5-3 and will be tied with TSM. The two teams will then play a tiebreaker to decide who moves on to the quarter finals.

Now I'll look at what could happen if TSM loses to SKT. There are multiple situations in which TSM can move on here. (Remember that in these situations TSM beats OMG and LemonDogs).

OMG loses to both SKT and LemonDogs, giving them a record of 5-3
If this occurs then SKT will finish in first place and OMG will be tied with TSM for second place and they must play a tiebreaker to decide which of them moves on.

SKT loses to both Lemondogs and OMG, giving them a record of 5-3
If this occurs then OMG will finish in first place and SKT will be tied with TSM for second place and they must play a tiebreaker to decide which of them moves on.

TL;DR: TSM's best chances if it goes 3-1 is to beat SKT then hope SKT loses atleast one more game
Who to root for besides TSM: OMG and Lemondogs

TSM goes 2-2 finishing with a record of 4-4(Edited)Note: We will once again assume that GamingGear.eu will lose all of their games for simplicity's sake
In this situation TSM must beat SKT, LemonDogs must lose to OMG, and SKT must lose to both OMG and LemonDogs. If this occurs then OMG will finish first, and SKT, TSM, and LemonDogs will all have a record of 4-4 and will be in a 3-way tie for second and "a single round-robin will be played among the three teams. If this does not result in a hierarchical ranking of teams (i.e.,
distinct 2-0, 1-1, and 0-2 team records), then the three teams will be
randomly drawn into a single-elimination bracket where one team
has a bye into the finals.""

TSM goes 1-3 finishing with a record of 3-5
TSM can only move on in this situation if SKT goes 0-4 in the rest of their games. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that isn't going to happen and TSM won't move on if they lose 3 of their next for games. I'll add on to this that TSM can't move on if they lose all 4 of their last 4 games.

TL;DR TSM most likely needs to win 3 out of their last 4 games then hope that SKT does poorly in order to move on. If TSM loses 3 or more of their games it is essentially impossible for TSM to move on to the quarter finals.

Though I want TSM to move on I predict that Group A will finish with the same standings as now. I think LemonDogs is a good team but I don't think they will be able to compete with OMG, SKT, or TSM and come out ahead. And as much as I'd like to see GamingGear.eu win a game, I don't think it's going to happen.

I do however think that if TSM manages to beat SKT on Friday then TSM has about a 40% chance to move onto the quarter finals in second place.

the result isn't as important to me. the way i see it, the person who's needed to "prove his worth" the most is Reginald, and he held his own against, arguably the best mid in the world i think that's a good incentive to practice harder and improve more. the fact the game was semi close made me happy.

i dont think you can measure his "success" by just looking at the kill/death line. Alot of the fights he played passive and played scared. One fight he even ulted ONLY the Renekton to the team (and renek had sunfire + wardens so that was like free 300 dmg he did to the whole team before the rest of SKT just jumped on them). Ulting renekton to your team defeats the entire purpose of using that ult which is to NOT do that

Yeah, Regi was a non factor the entire game. He didn't die because he didn't try to make any plays happen. He was super passive in lane on a very tanky champion. Also, Faker was playing a bit more defensive that game because TOO isn't showing himself too often in the map (which makes Faker think TOO is hanging around mid).

I completely agree, if you watch every team fight regi never fully committed, maybe throwing an ulti and q. I think some of the fights could have swung in tsm's favour if regi didnt play so scared and conservative, especially the fight near dragon where oddone got caught, turtle took out faker and pooh, leaving the rest low hp, a q and slam could have swung the fight.

This very much. He lost to Faker mid and had zero game impact. Indeed, Regi playing passive prevented a Faker snowball, but on the other hand Faker could just play passive, beat Regi in CS, and still have a large impact in teamfights while Piglet otherwise carried the game. Merely playing along with Regi's passive game was a winning strategy for Faker, especially considering the rest of TSM doesn't make plays either when Regi doesn't make plays.

TSM as a team is just way too dependent on Reginald doing well for their strategic impact. Only if Dyrus or Wildturtle randomly get hugely fed do they have a chance of winning without Reginald having high impact.

Impact carried the game from the beginning when he got a massive CS lead on Dyrus and killed him twice, Renekton was so tanky that TSM was forced to blow ultimates on the tank. TSM played well and did what they had to do to compete, Dyrus lost top and the dive in bot lane did not net the best results. Regi played fine especially when against Faker where the only play style you have is to be passive.

Although I'm not saying he couldn't have played better, Gragas's play style in team fights is often "blow your load and wait for cooldowns", especially when you're behind. I think it was half playing passive half playing the champion.

GO back and watch Faker play Gragas as they lose to OMG, he spends every team fight as far away from the other team as he can, just throwing Q's and hoping his dmg will slow down the stomp....Gragas when behind SHOULD NEVER go body slamming into the middle of team fights lol. (I don't even like regi, and I think he is one of the biggest problems with TSM because he is not consistent, but his last two games he played like a top level mid laner)

Well he could buy a Zonyas and try to soak up some damage, especially as it was very clear his damage wouldnt carry any of these tfs no matter if he got 1 more barrel in or not ( it rather was on Turtles shoulders). The damage reduction isnt to laugh at aswell, he could definatly bodyslam renek or even do the flash slam trick on a squishier target then ult behind it + instazonya ( he might even get out after this as slam is on a veeeery low cd with 40 % cdr). All in all i felt he didnt want to fail more than he wanted to win :(

In lane phase I agree he played passive with a don't-make-any-mistakes mindset, but I think Regi knows more than anyone that after lane phase it's about the good of the team and not the individual performance. During the LCS there were countless times he would 1v4 or 1v5 the enemy team while the rest of TSM was taking Baron or some other really important objective. As a lot of people have said before Regi did just about all he could as a Gragas trying to come from behind.

He was scared of dying a lot and played passive all the game thats why he got a tanky champion getting even in cs is easy if your team give it to you and he was in bot killing minions while his team died in a tf in mid.

i think the only thing that he doesn't measure up in is his defence. What i mean by this is, he has the capability to brawl with i'd say nearly anyone, but when it's people ganging up on him he'll almost always lose. which is fine because that's what a numbers advantage is. I just believe that his ability to outplay is lower then some other midlaners.

I felt like the reason TSM struggled so hard against SKT is that Regi didn't look confident at all on Gragas and in most of the fights he never got right in there like he needed too (In saying that Regi going more all in during team fights wouldn't have secured a win i felt SKT just played well and outdid TSM) which resulted in his deaths looking nice but ultimately a lose

tsm needs to start banning ahri when they are purple side.. it restricts regi's champion pool too much having to play against ahri. if ahri is banned he could play karthus or ori confidently, and to be honest his gragas looked subpar

Yes. If you look at their bans against SKT (Shen, Thresh, and Zed), you see that TSM plays those champs very well as well as SKT. TSM I feel doesn't play purple side bans properly; you want to leave three highly contest picks open, so that blue side is forced to leave two open for you. I believe that if TSM left Thresh and Zed open and banned, say, Renekton and Elise, then SKT would first pick Zed and TSM would grab Thresh and Ahri. Then I believe that SKT would then choose Lee Sin and Zyra, and TSM would pick Corki and Jarvan IV. SKT last picks Caitlyn and some top laner, and TSM counters top.

i completely agree, but honestly if you dont even think about regi, all the mistakes that they made in the game wasn't on him. they didnt snowball bot like they should because they failed the first blood dive, then dyrus died top for free when he already escaped the gank. and after that the oddone missed a kill because he fail flashed the wall near dragon, and then he got 100-0 by ahri at the dragon fight. all these things lead to them losing, and even though regis gragas was bad, his team should have been able to take advantages elsewhere on the map and help snowball a win.

to be honest i dont even mind trading ahri for elise and corki. you get so much value out of those 2 picks for tsm. but i felt like shen was a wasted ban, since tsm already proved they have a plan vs shen, they couldve banned ahri instead. OR they just dont ban a single mid laner and do what you said

I completely forgot about their Shen counter. You're right, Shen was a completely wasted ban, unless they felt that SKT had more potential with Shen than LD. I personally have not researched Impact's Shen plays, it's possible that SKT manages to use him more effectively.

If you watch ogn the Koreans have proved over and over again that their team fight ability is extraordinary. (It's like watching c9 but on a higher level). Giving Shen to the Koreans is bad when they will use it to split push and without hesitating ULT into wherever without caring or second guessing if it's a bad idea because that's what the team is doing and it works. When you watch NA, if that Shen ULT came a few seconds earlier than it could have been a completely different fight. It's hard to explain but I think the Koreans are just smarter with the way they use Shen in general

He couldn't be confident, TSM was way behind and dyrus was just a walking body, turtle didn't have great dmg so there was nothing for Gragas to add to the game, he pretty much couldn't ult someone to them without all of TSM team dying because of the lack of dmg and tankyness.

It's impressive that he only died once, but he played the entire game to not die, instead of making any kinds of moves that would win the game. He needed to step it up to make up for Dyrus being behind, and he didn't.

only so much you can do in a losing teamfight after ulty and barrel (which he threw every fight and had good ults nearly every fight), you can A) move your fatass in there and die for no kill or B) wait for the cooldown of your barrel and spam that fucker whilst not getting yourself killed so you can move your fatass if/when necessary.

I'm assuming you concluded B was the better of those two options, since it does more overall damage, has the possibility of a kill, and you don't give away unnecessary gold, you have now made the same decision as regi, how does that make you feel?

LOL. Good ults? I remember seeing one ult that hit more than one person. Both he and Dyrus had incredible weak ults outside of one dragon fight. He had no impact and was ineffective the entire game. Even his fizz or tf might have been better.

You should realize that they didn't bother with Regi though. They focused their efforts too and bot and just made mid a farm lane, where Regi just played safely. Faker still crushed him in cs (by 40 I believe) and in general was a much bigger presence in team fights.

Not saying Regi was awful but he certainly wasn't amazing and he didn't have any real pressure the entire laning phase.

Give the guy some credit, ffs. He was playing against the best mid in the world while his jungle and top not only dropped the ball, but then proceeded to jab it several times with an icepick and throw it down a well. What sort of impact did you expect him to have? It was the same story with Faker on Gragas vs OMG.

Nice work. Don't think they'll do it, but they sure as hell have impressed me with their games lately. They shouldn't feel bad about not making it to quarters at all after going toe-to-toe with IMO the best team in the world (SKT1).

One could argue that they went toe to toe with the two best teams in the world (SKT T1 and OMG) considering OMG's performance. If they manage to beat SKT on Friday then I think they have a decent chance. But if they don't manage to do that then I personally believe they won't make it. I forgot to put my predictions in at the end. Maybe I'll do that now

Wait what? OMG completely crushed them during that match, how is that going toe to toe? It's like me getting into a fight with Mayweather and being sent to the hospital in a bodycast and saying I went "toe to toe" with him.

SKT1 needs ramp up time, and I seriously doubt that they'll drop any games from here on out in the group stages. Maybe they lose to OMG in groups, but I can't see them losing a Bo5 to any team, let alone a Bo1 against TSM. They just adapt so well that cheese strats stop working very quickly against them, leaving you to try go head on against insane mechanical players like Faker and Piglet. Doesn't bode well for any team.

If TSM really wants to move they have to do something about the constant camping/3v1 dives onto Dyrus. They always try to match it by doing 3v1 bot lane but it doesn't really work out for them.

If you watch every 3v1 dive onto Dyrus he gets at least 2 of them below 200hp. They need to have TheOddOne not camping the duo/mid side of the map and rotate him up to the Dyrus/Reggie side of the map. He could easily get clean up kills.

Leaving Dyrus on a island like that just isn't working out. TSM is just too slow on their rotates to help/counter. This is why C9 shits on them and why they've lost a lot of games.

Honestly I think they're doing it correctly, only difference IMO is that they should place explorers +1 in early game and then place delayed wards so they can see the dive coming, Dyrus acts just like he did against SKT while they shape up with the timing in bottom lane. And they should pick better, a Vladimir or a J4 for TOO would've done way better that last game... ALSO PLEASE BAN AHRI!

I would not have had the time to calculate all of the possibilities if I factored in GamingGear.eu having the possibility of winning each game. I also probably would have gone over the character limit of a reddit post as I almost reached it without it. I like GamingGear.eu and would like to see them win a game but with an 0-4 record and not really making much of an impression on me in any of their games, I don't think they can do it

They wouldn't deserve being crowned champions without beating these top two teams. Yes they got the short straw group wise, but you'd still end up facing them after group stage, if they qualified and were in the other group.

Whoever wins the tournament will have definitely deserved it considering who they will have had to play. The level of competition I've seen so far is incredible and I can't wait for the quarter finals where we get to see Cloud 9 make their stand

Especially considering how good they are at researching teams. I have no idea if they'll win but they look to be the strongest team currently in the quarterfinals, besides maybe Royal Club (who I admittedly have not seen much of).

I've heard that rumor and that honestly wouldn't surprise me, especially since the groups were announced before the finals of LPL. Who knows though, maybe Gama Bears will pull a TPA or Sword is suddenly the strongest Korean team, we'll see.

How did they get the short straw group wise?There is no evidence that would suggest they would win against fanatic,gambit or even ozone.And vulcan is 2-2 with them, there is no reason also to count them out.

I don't see how they draw the short straw on groups. It's the world championships and both groups have incredibly strong teams - the only difference is that it's European teams leading group B. Even after seeing Fnatic and Gambit's quality, people are still underestimating them.

I just want this "western teams in general are inferior" sentiment to stop. With the way they're playing now it's clear some of these teams would honestly fare decently well in OGN or LPL. Just because the single strongest team might be Asian does not mean that only Asian teams are strong.

Ignore the hype train. Look only at the results. There is one team that is undefeated, OMG. Every game has been back and forth and/or close in Group B. By the numbers Group B has up to four teams realistically fighting for two places, 50% shot. Group A has 3 teams fighting for 1 place 33% chance. If you add in the pre-trounament rankings, almost all of which had SKT T1 and OMG in top 2, and then look at the teams coming out of group B, which had 2/3 teams in top 8, then it looks like group B is easier.

Also look at how the NA and EU scene match up as well as how weak Ozone has looked pick-wise. Gambit and Fntic will still look better to get out of group B, but switch Fntic and TSM and you'd think Gambit and TSM look good out of Group B, and Fnatic would have a real fight in group A.

On any day most of these teams could beat each other. My current/biased rankings have the breakdown like this:

OMG/SKT T1/Gambit

Fnatic/TSM/Ozone/Vulan/LD

GG.eu/Mineski

I'd credit Gambit's loss to Fnatic to experience and familiarity as much as anything. Remember that this is a matchup that both teams know and that Fnatic has won well most recently, so they have a slight upper hand there. Fnatic's wins could be determined by their picks alone (a lot of questions about some calls), but they're definately ahead of Vulcan if they don't lose picks that hard. Ozone has potential to rally back, TSM has looked strong, LD seem to have difficulty closing/carry a snowball, Vulcan are super hit and miss.

So yea, with 2 of the top teams in the group stages vs only 1, Group B is probably a good deal easier to get out of than Group A is at the moment if you're not one of the Big 3.

I didnt see everygame being back and forth at all in group b. All games i watched ( which is every game not having mineski in it) were pretty decisive wins ( with the exception of Vulcun vs Ozone ). It still might be even in chances as lol is just very snowbally atm and getting the lead in early game often renders the oposing team relatively helpless and dooms them to wait for huge mistakes to come back into the game.

Group B may or may not be easier. But it is certainly a lot more competitive which gives it the appearance of being easier. We won't have an idea on the relative strength of the groups until we see our first Group A vs. Group B matchup in the Semi-Finals. Assuming of course a team from Group and and a team from Group B meet in the Semi-Finals.

Well that much is obvious. The Vulcun win though was the hardest snowball i saw whole tourney ( not including bad tier teams ). 2 kills on both carrys and a gimped jungler at lvl 1+ xpeke not defending his turret but chilling in base for some reason made this game seem like some sort of easy win while in reality there was barely anything fnatic could do after such a bad start. Not that i believe Vulcun didnt deserve it or is bad , but this game has quite little to tell us besides that you should really send ur Botlane top if you are purple side and blue sends his top ( and maybe that Mancloud is pretty fucking good) . For me both groups have equally strong favourites ( maybe not in general gameplay, but definately in relation to the rest of their group ) and verey team that is not one of those 4 will have a very tough time snatching a place in quarters.

I guess back and forth wasn't the right term, because I was talking about exactly what you are describing. All the games were stomps, and not always by the same team. Vulcun beat Fnatic, Gambit beat Vulcun, Fnatic beat Gambit. Ozone looks really...lost for lack of a better term right now. They're playing two patches ago, and while they're mechanically good, they're not that much better than any team to win consistently playing like this.

Gambit I expect to come first unless they drop again to Fnatic. Fnatic I expect to come in second so long as they pick well, though if they 4-0 they will obviously win the group. Vulcun probably won't leave group, but I could see them picking off games off of Fnatic and Ozone because their early game is really just that good. If Ozone figures their shit out, and starts playing in this patch, then they could mount a comeback as well.

The funny thing to realize is that if Vulcun closed out the game with Ozone, which you could argue they had a chance to, then they would be tied with Fnatic and Gambit. Group B is close with slight favorites. Group A has two strong favorites and two teams just behind who could snipe a game if things go well, but realistically we can all see who is leaving it. TSM is as strong if not stronger than Vulcun due to experience. They probably wouldn't have been looked down on by Fnatic, but TSM in that Group could easily be 3-1. Now replace LD with TSM and my statement still holds true. Instead of swapping Vulcun with TSM/LD trade Fnatic with TSM/LD and you'd have a similar distribution of power.

This all leads me back to saying Group B is "easier." This is the world championships, nothing is really easy, but there is a path of least resistance, and its Group B. And to be honest, that is 100% because Ozone is playing like crap compared to what they were expected to perform at. Had they come in like they did in Korea, chances are I'd be saying I can't see anyone coming out of the group besides Ozone and either Gambit/Fnatic. That is the way the cookie crumbles though, and because Ozone are off, Group B is fair grounds for all.

That is what I mean by back and forth. The only close games were Vulcun vs Ozone (Gambit showed just how much better they were than Vulcun by winning the same game vs Ozone with a better jungler and adc pick), and maybe, maybe, Vulcun vs Fnatic.

Most of these games were tilted in pick/bans. Gambit is the best there at pick/bans (it looks like), and Fnatic have the most experience against Gambit. If Vulcun outpicks Fnatic they can upset them again, and they could probably also win vs Ozone. I don't think they have a shot against Gambit unless something goes to hell.

I suspect Fnatic/Gambit to get out cleanly unless Ozone finds something and they pick well. Vulcun and Ozone could both poach games off of any of the top four if they start their snowball.

To link this back to the original point of my post. I think the team who can get an early lead can close out 80% of the time in group B. There isn't a team who you just fear letting stick around, even with a gold lead. Now look at OMG. They lost an early game and still came back vs LD. Both OMG and SKT T1 also have the strongest mid/late game vision control I have ever seen. To win against them you have to win early then carry that snowball hard, a little mistake will lose you the game. In group B I really can't see Gambit losing the early/mid game, and while Fnatic could come back from a deficit I don't get the same type of pressure from them as I do from the Group A giants.

That is what I mean by back and forth. The only close games were Vulcun vs Ozone (Gambit showed just how much better they were than Vulcun by winning the same game vs Ozone with a better jungler and adc pick), and maybe, maybe, Vulcun vs Fnatic.

Most of these games were tilted in pick/bans. Gambit is the best there at pick/bans (it looks like), and Fnatic have the most experience against Gambit. If Vulcun outpicks Fnatic they can upset them again, and they could probably also win vs Ozone. I don't think they have a shot against Gambit unless something goes to hell.

I suspect Fnatic/Gambit to get out cleanly unless Ozone finds something and they pick well. Vulcun and Ozone could both poach games off of any of the top four if they start their snowball.

To link this back to the original point of my post. I think the team who can get an early lead can close out 80% of the time in group B. There isn't a team who you just fear letting stick around, even with a gold lead. Now look at OMG. They lost an early game and still came back vs LD. Both OMG and SKT T1 also have the strongest mid/late game vision control I have ever seen. To win against them you have to win early then carry that snowball hard, a little mistake will lose you the game. In group B I really can't see Gambit losing the early/mid game, and while Fnatic could come back from a deficit I don't get the same type of pressure from them as I do from the Group A giants.

games like LD vs SkT and LD vs OMG were quite close aswell, always to a point were LD was doing one (or arguably more ) mistakes. GG and Mineski games aside, i havnt really witnessed a big stomp in neither group. and to me SkT nor OMG looking totally unbeatable. i dont see a big difference in the groups - this might change tho, since only half the games have been palyed.

Fnatic vs Gambit was a fairly large stomp, as was OMG vs TSM. There are explanations to both, but they were stomps. I don't believe any team is unbeatable, but the flaws in SKT T1 and OMG are harder to exploit than an Ozone or a TSM or a Fnatic, because so much of their strength comes from map control and rotations rather than shutting one person down or denying certain champions.

These are the world championships. None of these teams are weak, and, as the saying goes, any given day could change who wins and loses. That said, if there was a Champions league with these teams, I'd expect OMG, SKT T1, and Gambit to be the highest (assuming Gambit could keep this up for a full season). LD could beat anyone in the group, as could TSM, but its a long shot for either to beat both on their next meeting. Whereas we have already seen every one of those teams in Group B lose and can tell that the skill level is a bit more tightly grouped.

I really fancy Gambit to win it (slight bias, of course, since I'm supporting them for the tournament with EG not in the running) of the teams at the moment, but my big worries are how threatening OMG look, the unknown of the 4 teams who got byes, and concerns about how they'll hold up against Fnatic if they have to play them again beyond the group stage, since Fnatic have such a good record against them.

This is a great breakdown of Group A. Now I know when to give up all hope :D I was honestly surprised by Lemondogs' performance. Everyone was either really hyped up about them or undervaluing them. You could probably make a LD version of this chart for some of the European fans. It's essentially the same thing except with TSM and LD being swapped.

I personally think that LD is a strong European team who just had bad luck. If they were in Group B, they could likely secure a second place finish due to Samsung Galaxy Ozone's rocky start.(Assuming LD swapped to either 1st or 2nd place) But with the SKT T1 and OMG looking so strong, this will just be a learning experience for LD unless they pull out a miracle.

TSM has a slim chance of making it through, but it's always fun to cheer for the underdogs. TSM has played relatively well throughout the Group Stages aside from some minor bloopers.

I personally think that Samsung Galaxy Ozone will bring Homme back and sweep the rest of the games, but I'm just a Korean fanboy here.

I'm really interested in the next TSM vs LD game. Last time TSM got to play exactly what they wanted against a comp it worked perfectly against, but I think they'll have a much better idea of how to match up against TSM next time. I think a Vi ban plus either a Vlad ban or a top lane pick who can bully Vlad early would sort things out, with possibly a Zed first pick ( though I'm not sure the Zed would be as good without Vi to dive on Nukeduck). That probably leaves Corki open for Turtle, though, which could be a problem.

Honestly, I dont think TSM can make it trough. Why? Simple, sorry (and i'll get downvoted to hell ) but theres no way TSM can win OMG. I fell that SKT1 is behind OMG now, but are a stronger team overall. Also theres Lemondogs, TSM did a pretty nice match against them, but it was mainly cuz they gave regi's zed, theres no way it'll happen again. OMG and SKT1 are way more likely to win LD than TSM.

Edit: Guys I'm not by any mean a 'TSM HATER' in fact I want NA to qualify both teams, but those '' IF reginald wasnt playing fizz, IF dyrus didnt missed ults, IF IF IF IF '' dont mean shit. I think as well that TSM will win LD again, and they will 2-2, but thats not what they need to qualify.

I don't think TSM will make it through either, but I do think they can beat either SKT or OMG if everyone on TSM plays well. In their two losses to those teams one of them was playing, well, pretty bad. Regi's fizz being the example for OMG and Dyrus played poorly early on against SKT pretty much screwing TSM over by making the renekton unkillable. And TSM doesn't need zed to beat LemonDogs, they just have to play solidly.

I bet you would have said LD was going to mop the floor with TSM, but they didnt, I bet you said CLG and Vulcun were going to give TSM a run for their money in the playoffs, but they got 2-0'd, they can be a team that unexpectedly ups their game for the big matches.

Friday is the deciding day for TSM. If they lose both games vs. SKT1 and vs. OMG, they have virtually no chance of making it out of groups. Beating SKT1 but losing to OMG gives them a really good chance for 2nd, assuming SKT1 then loses to OMG. Winning both games is highly unlikely, but almost guarantees TSM out of groups.

Even if TSM wins all of their games they aren't guaranteed to make it out as they might have to play a tiebreaker with skt and omg. if they only beat one of them then it is very likely they will have to play a tie breaker. I agree with you except i would change your wording to "decent chance" instead of "really good chance" and "good chance" instead of "almost guarantees"

I honestly don't understand this thread. I appreciate that there are people wanting TSM to win badly, and I don't want to discredit TSM at all, as when they are on their A-Game, they could perhaps overcome any team. But the likeliness of this happening in my opinion is minimal. As an EU Gambit fan, I've always like TSM, and it's because of them that I became a good league player. So I respect the guys a lot, but it saddens me to say that they're beat.

90% of TSM fans will agree with you. We just happen to be the biggest section of fans left, especially in this subbreddit, so we get to do stuff like this and it hits the front page. That being said, if they somehow beat SKT T1 on Friday, this thread will look awful prophetic.

The point of this thread is to show what they would have to do in order to make it through. It is about showing TSM fans what they need to be rooting for and hope for. I don't understand why you don't understand this thread. If you aren't a TSM fan then this thread is most likely not for you and you can simply move on

In my opinion it is currently more likely that TSM will battle against Lemondogs for the 3rd place. Both teams, despite having OK phases against OMG and SKT, were not close enough for beating them. I even think Lemondogs was closer to beating OMG than TSM was.

Although the TSM vs LD match looked onesided, it was a snowball comp that, as the Analyst Desk pointed out, would not have been as successful in later teamfights. The rematch can end completely different.

Having said that I expect that the team that wants to finish second has to beat OMG or SKT and TSM or Lemondogs respectively.

If TSM wins against OMG or SKT but cannot beat Lemondogs, which I believe is a 50%/50% match, they will not advance.

With all of these ahri's being played I think regi should try playing morgana. Morgana is a decent counter to ahri if you have fast reactions, and she has an ult that can be a massive help in team fights.

all they need is dyrus buying wards after he gives first blood to stop the bleeding, dyrus one of the most solid top laners but he has a very bad champ pool for 1v2, it is a fact that tsm loses most of their games when dyrus is 1v2, too bad he doesnt play malph or galio, those champs are so hard to kill on turret. vs asian teams they need to pick more tanky champs if they allow lee/ahri combo to be picked against them to not get shit on midgame. tsm has the potential of beating anyone and losing to anyone at the same time.