Weather and Traffic

Forecasts hint at tropical troubles next week

What kind of mischief might Mother Nature be brewing up on Columbus Day? That’s a key question weather forecasters are mulling this week with the stalled front in the Florida Straits.

The six-day computer forecasting models are becoming more consistent with some kind of low pressure system spinning up in the Caribbean, Bahamas or even the Gulf of Mexico. This much seems certain: High pressure to the north and the stalled front to the south will kick up winds in Palm Beach toward the end of the week and into the weekend.

By Wednesday, winds will increase out of the northeast and create a high risk for for rip currents, beach erosion and small craft advisories. Rain is expected to move in over the weekend, but with the strong winds the storm cells won’t have time to linger, so flooding is
not expected, the National Weather Service says.

Much of what happens after the holiday on Monday depends on the tropics. Tuesday’s Canadian model showed a system spinning up out of Cuba, and it finished its six-day forecast
with the disturbance perched at the southern tip of the Florida peninsula.

The European model brews something up early next week and sends it through the eastern Gulf of Mexico up to Northwest Florida. The GFS, at least on Tuesday, seemed less enthusiastic about development.

The next tropical storm on the list is Rina (pronounced REE-NUH).

When it comes to climatology, South Florida is particularly vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes in October, the National Weather Service in Miami noted in a report Tuesday. Since 1851, more hurricanes have hit the peninsula than any other month — 19 (versus 15 in September).

“A total of 30 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have affected mainland South Florida, also the most of any month,” the report says. However, seven major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have hit the peninsula in October, four fewer than in September.

Most of these storms originate in the Caribbean. They often move up toward Western Cuba or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and then get picked up by a cold front, which may push them across South Florida. The classic example is Hurricane Wilma in 2005.