AFAP manages the Australian-Pacific Centre for Emergency and Disaster Information (APCEDI) to provide news on natural disaster events in the Asia-Pacific region and to help with rapid disaster response assessment. This was originally a communications network that was activated during a disaster to disseminate information to our Asia-Pacific NGO offices. Now APCEDI has a much wider application across the Asia-Pacific Region.

Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Super-Cyclone Olaf is now within 12 hours of impacting Samoa and American Samoa and Cyclone Nancy is already causing coastal damage to Aitutake in the Southern Cooks. Olaf could possible intensify further while Nancy seems to have peaked for the moment. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SAMOA:HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS

AMERICAN SAMOA: A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT

TOKELAUA STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TUVALUA STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUEA STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNAA STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

----CYCLONE NANCYCyclone Nancy remains a major Category 3/4 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Latest reports have noted that Nancy seems to have peaked in intensity, and it may weaken slightly overnight. It is moving southsoutheast at 16 kt. It currently lies about 70 miles (110 km) northnortheast of Aitutaki and 207 miles (330 km) north of Rarotonga.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga and can report the following:

Situation on Aitutake: All preparations have been completed. Tourists have been evacuated from resorts, and many have been taken to Rarotonga. Some tourists have decided to ride out the cyclone on Aitutake. Radio announcements have been going out all day for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Six Safety Houses (cyclone shelters) have now been opened, and over 100 of the islands 2000 residents have sought safety in these. The Cyclone Centre has all municipal workers on standby, ready to assist when storm hits. Conditions on the east side of the island have deteriorated rapidly in the last 2-3 hours with many trees down, major tidal surge, some roof damage. Winds on the east side are now sustained at 50-60 knots with gusts to 70-80 knots, and very heavy rain is being reported.

Situation on Rarotonga: All preparations have been completed. Radio announcements have been going out all day across the Southern Cooks for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Six shelters are being opened, and people are continuing to come into the shelters. The Cyclone Centre is fully operational and monitoring the situation very closely. Winds are starting to gusts with intermittent rain squalls.

Nancy is now moving south. Continuation of this southerly movement will likely bring the storm over or very near Aitutake and Rarotonga both of which have had significant damage from Cyclone Meena. Manuae, Takutea and Atiu will also be very close to the centre of the storm. It is likely that the storm will continue to be s strong Category 3/4 during this time.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks have now largely completed cyclone preparedness measures. Special attention should continue be paid to the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be very little time between storms to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and very dangerous situation.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBYSMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [945hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 159.2W OR ABOUT 70 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AITUTAKI AND ABOUT 207 MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 150600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 16 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR 88 MILES WEST OF MAUKE AT 151800UTC AND ABOUT 48 MILES WEST OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 73 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 160600UTC.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued at 150900 UTC _____

SUPER-CYCLONE OLAFSuper-Cyclone Olaf continues on its southeast track toward Samoa about 276 miles (444 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 210 miles (335 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving eastsoutheast at 13 kt. Olaf is forecast to continue strengthening slightly and maintain a southeast track toward Samoa and American Samoa. It is now a very strong Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone in 12-24 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa later tomorrow. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 4/5 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be finalising all preparations activities consistent with a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. This is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

Authorities in Samoa and American Samoa have been working all day to rush preparedness operations to a finish. Both Governments and NDMOs have had a number of special meetings today to prepare for the oncoming situation. The Apia Airport shut down at 5:00 PM local time due to the approaching cyclone and all flights have been cancelled or rerouted. All schools have been closed as well as most public and private operations. Radio reports have been warning all residents for the past 24 hours, and most coastal businesses and homes have spent all day boarding up.

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER EIGHTEEN (18) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 150430Z OR 5:30 THIS AFTERNOON. 14th FEBRUARY 2005.

…… HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ……

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 11.4 SOUTH 174.8 WEST OR 172 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 150300Z OR 4:00 P.M THIS EVENING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF REMAINS INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH, EXPECTING TO SLOWDOWN TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 145 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IT OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE TO OVER SAMOA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND RELOCATE TO 121 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF APIA AT 1:00 A.M. WEDNESDAY 16th.

IF MOVEMENT IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE DELAYED.

FOR SAMOA :

NORTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SAVAII FROM 7:00 AM TOMORROW INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLIER.

...AREAS AFFECTED...THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS......A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IN FORCE.

...STORM INFORMATION...HURRICANE OLAF REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 150 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 170 MPH NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 12.0 SOUTH 174.5 WEST OR ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AT 7 PM SST MONDAY. HURRICANE OLAF IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...IF OLAF MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT AND SPEED...IT WILL BE NEAR TUTUILA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 25 TO 40 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 60 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

...NEXT UPDATES...THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM TUESDAY.

-----NIUEAuthorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAUAuthorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TONGAThe Northern Islands Group of the Niuas could expect to feel the outer effects of Cyclone Olaf, once it passes through Samoa.

TUVALU and WALLIS AND FUTUNAAuthorities in Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIADepending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

APCEDI

APCEDI is a service of AFAP
- the Australian Foundation for the Peoples of Asia and the Pacific and FSPI
- the Foundation for the Peoples of the South Pacific International.

Disclaimer: This service provides indicative alert information
and should only be construed in conjunction with other sources of information
such as local and regional weather services. Reports are as accurate as possible,
but as the information is indicative, external confirmation should be sought.