I am not surprised the Tories won in Roberval-Lac Saint Jean, but almost 60%, whoa. I think this, along with the ADQ's strong showing, and the Tories 10 seats means the right might be stronger in rural Quebec than many of us thought. If anything we need to find out why this is and do something. While I love seeing the Bloc lose seats, I don't want to see the Tories dominate Rural Quebec they way they dominate Rural Ontario or the West as this means a Tory majority.

Steve... I never would have thought that this would be by this big a margin... by 20 % after 50 polls... wow.... I think that this can now be considered worst case scenario stuff for Dion (sorry guys, not trying to gloat, just stating facts)

I've already on my blog called all three ridings. Roberval-Lac Saint Jean doesn't need any explanation. Although the margin is not huge in Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, it is consistent and watching how the networks make predictions during a general election, I feel the lead is enough to call it. Although I hope things tighten up in Outremont, the size of the lead with over 25% polls in is just too much to overcome.

I agree, Steve V, the size of the loss so far is huge and ought to be devastating for us. I suspect either the Bloc Quebecois or Liberals will find a way to support the Throne speech as this night has not been good for either party, so my prediction no federal election this fall.

Wow... I'm no fan of Stephane Dion, but I have to admit a small part of me feels bad for him right now... This might not kill him, but it will mortally wound him... Dion at this point kinda reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python's "The Holy Grail"

Steve... i'm a New Democrat, and even in my most homer moments, I never would have considered a landslide. Everyone keeps making the comparison of Phil Edmunston to Thomas Mulcair, but I don't think that comparison works now because Edmunston didn't win anywhere near this big

lance...it's gonna be tough, for sure. Part of me says bring on the election, because we may have a shot at majority, but the other part of me says with results like these, the CPC could essentially govern like they have a majority anyway

It is the end of the Liberal dominance of politics in Quebec. Federally and provincially. It also weakens the BQ and with the NDP victory and the Conservatives, they can attack the BQ's left and right wing base.

The riding to watch is sainte- hyacinthe where the BQ is battling to hold the lead.

And Steve I don't think anyone expected the landslide in Robellaire.

As for Dion I guess he will have to don that Puffin suit because his popularity as a leader is less than the popularity of his party. Not only in Quebec.

shrub must be in ottawa with a big smile on his face...victory in the sov.t. heartland / liberals all the big wigs there but as we know it takes a grass roots organization to win and it was lacking it seems...dion is wounded this evening big time and its a shame ......basically under dion's leadership the liberal party is dead in quebec...that's it we came in fourth in one of the by-elections in quebec...behind the ndp...ouch talk about being spanked

What I find interesting is that all weekend you heard the Liberal spinners talking about Low voter turnout and how "the Liberals get their vote out", "the NDP vote tends not to get out" and how low voter turn out would be good for the Liberals.

Well, that doesn't look to be the case here. Looking at Outremont, the voter turn out there is looking like it will be only 40%ish. So, it looks like the low turnout did nothing to hurt the NDP this time around.

These results are definitely suboptimal. I felt Mulcair was a threat but like has been said the idea that it would be a landslide victory for him had not occured to me. Newman should be an interesting show tomorrow...

Don't feel too bad Liberals, Mulcair is the now the one NDP MP most likely to cross the floor within the next five years. Given his policy differences with the party, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened sooner.

Chretien was written off for most of the three years between when he was elected leader and when he took the party from deep opposition to majority. The knifes for him, too, came out immediately although ultimately the knife-holder was the one to bleed to death.

Hopefully we'll see Coulon back at it. The dynamics of a by-election are so different from a regular election that you've just got to shake your head, take a swig and know that tomorrow is a new day.What's interesting is how Harper's divisive and racially-tinged attack on Elections Canada probably played a sizeable role in his party's popularity in the regions (plus one strong candidate)... Let's see how that can grow after a year of silence from their MP... And also how more bling-bling to Quebec's regions will play across the rest of Canada.Personally, having survived the 1984 and '88 elections, i don't think these results tell us much right now. But certainly i'd give Harper and Layton the night and right to party.

Lebel was on CPAC saying " I am a nationalist, and Mr. Harper knows that," Which shows that he got support from not only his position as Mayor in the region, but from Quebec nationalists. Harper is replaying Mulroney's Quebec strategy

Steve, I'll follow Torian's example and echo his thanks for setting this up. It's almost as good as an IRC channel for the discussion. :)

I agree that this is a wake-up call, but it remains to be seen exactly who it will wake up: Dion? Dion's advisors? Dion's backstabbers?

eugene,

It's Dion's impatience for soft nationists that first drew me to support him. If Harper is trying the Mulroney approach as I agree he is, the one comfort is that it is bound to implode when he finally figures out that Quebec nationalists have a completely insaitiable appetite for concessions, favours, and special treatment.

Mulcair thanked the previous NDP candidate in Outremont who got 6000 votes last time, which outnumbers what the Liberals got this time. So a base was laid, and now the NDP has to build on that base in other urban ridings.

He better hope that there isn't an election this fall, that's all I have to say. The party certainly needs time to fix the multitudinous problems. If there is an election this fall and we lose, I think Dion's done, as much as I hate to say it.

Lance - Unfortunately I think Harper's whole thing on the veil may have helped him in Rural Quebec much as it did with Mario Dumont. Off course this policy could backfire nationally. I've checked statscan on the foreign born and those with at least one foreign born parent and in Ontario 28% were foreign born while 45% have at least one foreign born parent. In the GTA that jumps to 70% having at least one foreign born parent. Now, yes many were from Europe, however fewer than 10% were from English speaking countries. In Rural Quebec, it is under 5% with a foreign born parent and the few who do are almost all European. In fact even being just 4th generation is less common than being 10th generation Canadian. The whole anti-immigrant thing generally works amongst those who have never met an immigrant and buy into all the stereotype garbage spread about them. In the case of France, Jean-Marie Le Pen's National Front gets most of its support from rural France which is almost 100% white native French born and very little from Paris or other big cities with large immigrant communities, so I think the some dynamic might apply in Quebec.

A view from the left - I don't want a fall election either, but I don't think we should blindly vote for the throne speech. This is going to be a tricky one, since if we vote for a bad throne speech, we will look weak, but if we vote against it we risk going into an election we are not ready for.

The only good thing is our numbers are better in Ontario and unlike Quebec where the results are often unpredictable, Ontario results usually tend to be predictable.

Lance, please point out where i use the word 'racist'... Harper tried and succeeded in scoring points off the supposed threat that women wearing veils would have on our voting system. Never mind that he proposed the law that did nothing to secure visual identification, despite his cries to the opposite.Instead, he played on rural Quebec's nationalistic mindset, which recently saw one village in the news for demanding the removal of all veils.I have no qualms in calling harper a hypocrite, a divisive leader who plays the game of democracy like a fourth-line goon, especially in the age where no fights are allowed. He's chicken and deceitful. While much of his arsenal is fair game, if somewhat counter to the image you and he would like others to believe, he is also obviously not above playing in the dirt, or trying to trick Canadian taxpayers to pay for a twisted ad campaign. But that's you CONs all over.CONs have been spending their credibility defending Bush and the war on Iraq for the last bloody handful of years, so you should be in good practice when your leader trips up, too.Enjoy the party. It never lasts as long as one likes...

If a few lawn signs could win an election I think even the Rhinos could piece together something successful. No, while I don't support any all-nighter navel gazing, there are some serious questions that have to be asked by the people in the know.But let's not feed the frenzy that Harper and his media buddies want.This was democracy at work and while I don't like being lumped in with Duceppe (among the losers) I think the work that needs to be done can be completed by finishing the team building that was supposedly started at the convention.The next set of by-elections will present a brighter answer, but the leader and the leaders will need to buck up.

Lesson - the Dion supporters need to grow up - do some work and quit blaming others - they's hurt the party big time. Perhaps they should be fired. I neve bought into this hero worship stuff - childish and damaging.

There was no conspiracy - it was an attempt to have an excuse ready. All that time they could have been working.

Mulcair pointed out the real difference in Outremont, and I would dare say most of Montreal, the issue was the War. In his acceptance speech Peace came first followed by the Environment. His comments on peace and the war raised a huge round of cheers. After all he was running against Dion's hand picked expert on International affairs. So this was more than an issue of lawn signs.

And lets not forget the NDP came in third in Sainte-Hyacinthe, ahead of the Liberals. There the nationalists split the vote between the BQ and Cons.

Eugene - Mulcair talked about peace at a room full of NDPers. If they didn't cheer it would have been noteworthy.

I find the aftermath of Canadian elections so much less satisfying than UK/Irish ones because of the tradition there of a single declaration by the returning officer to a mixed assembly of candidates and parties rather than the media declaring it to various scattered rooms full of partisans. The sight of a room where victory and defeat comes together and where the victor and losers stand on the same stage to await the judgement of the people seems more democratic.

There's one person who can definitely be blamed for this fiasco: Jean Lapierre. If he had served the term he promised the electorate rather than running off to TVA they wouldn't be in this mess.