Then Romania had to cut wages and increase VAT, while Poland knew how to use European funds to maintain growth during the crisis within the positive range and could cut income tax and stimulate consumption at the right time.

In 2017 the two economies were stimulated by consumption, but again with proportions that have damaged the balances in Romania, respectively preserved balances in Poland.

The budget deficit was 1.7% of GDP in Poland last year, while the Romanian Government barely managed to maintain it at 2.9% (one step below the EU’s maximum accepted level).

Last year Poland recorded a surplus in the current account (even though of only 0.2%), while the Romanian current account deficit was 3.3% of GDP.

Signs of current dangers

The indicators of Polish and Romanian economies differ now as dangerously as before for the Romanian economy, (within the statistical proportions).

The evolution of the construction sector is negative in Romania and positive in Poland.

The Polish economy confirmed its growth rate in Q2 of 2018 (5.2% y-o-y after 5.1% in Q1).

In Poland, “the sharp decline in investment was almost entirely offset by the acceleration of exports,” says a Capital Economics report issued on Tuesday.

Instead, the Romanian economy continued to slow down its growth rate (4.2%) after a previous rhythm collapse.

In Romania, not only are investments decreasing, but net exports are negative.

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In Poland, wage increase will also trigger the increase in inflation, but it tends towards capping (2.0% in August, after 1.9% in July).

In Romania, salary increases of 14.4% (y-o-y in May) led to a significant increase in inflation to 5.1% in August, compared to 4.6% in July.