10 preseason questions about the AFC: Changes galore make conference a kick

Wednesday

Jul 25, 2007 at 12:01 AMJul 25, 2007 at 7:05 AM

The Colts are wearing Super Bowl rings ... thanks to their defense. Randy Moss is a - gulp! - Patriot. Bill Cowher’s chin won’t be jutting out from the Steelers sideline anymore.

By Eric McHugh

The Colts are wearing Super Bowl rings ... thanks to their defense.

Randy Moss is a - gulp! - Patriot.

Bill Cowher’s chin won’t be jutting out from the Steelers sideline anymore.

Marty Schottenheimer won’t lose a playoff game for the Chargers.

And the Texans won’t allow David Carr to get sacked even once this season.

OK, so those last two items are kind of bogus - Schottenheimer was axed in San Diego, and Carr figures to be holding a clipboard in Carolina instead of an ice pack in Houston - but there’s no denying that the world has turned upside down in the AFC.

The Colts, Patriots and Chargers - who play a delicious round-robin tournament during the regular season, beginning with San Diego visiting Foxboro in Week 2 - again are the three heavyweight contenders, meaning they should enter the 2007 season as the top three teams in all the silly power rankings.

Does that mean that one of them will carry the AFC banner into Super Bowl XLII in Arizona come February? Sorry to be wishy-washy, but these days you never can tell. Dark horse candidates’ applications are being accepted this week as training camps open across the country. Before Indy hosts New Orleans in the NFL season opener on Sept. 6, here are 10 questions to ponder about the conference that has been hogging all the jewelry of late:

1) Which Colts defense do we see?

The Swiss-cheese edition that allowed an NFL-worst 173 rushing yards per game during the regular season and seemed certain to doom Indy to another playoff flop? Or the one that grew a spine in the postseason and magically shaved that number down to 82.8 yards per game? Keeping heart-and-soul S Bob Sanders healthy seems to be the key - his return to the lineup after missing 12 games with a knee injury sparked the Colts’ defensive reinvention down the stretch. Indy signed DE Dwight Freeney to a staggering contract extension but lost LB Cato June (Tampa Bay) and starting CBs Nick Harper (Tennessee) and Jason David (New Orleans) in free agency. Their replacements will come from the 2005 and 2006 drafts - LB Freddy Keiaho and corners Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden (who had a 56-yard interception return for a score in the Super Bowl).

With Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai and new No. 3 WR Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio State, there’s more than enough offense, even with RB Dominic Rhodes moving to Oakland. (LT Tarik Glenn’s retirement is troubling, though.) It will be interesting to see how motivated the Colts are for a repeat. Maybe all the Patriots-as-favorites talk will stoke their fires.

2) Is Norv Turner the right man for the Chargers?

Turner’s credentials as an offensive coordinator are impeccable, dating to his days with Troy Aikman’s Cowboys. In two star-crossed head-coaching gigs with the Redskins and Raiders, however, he’s a combined 58-82-1. Chargers GM A.J. Smith, who repeatedly clashed with Schottenheimer, would argue (correctly) that Turner, who installed the Chargers’ current offense in 2001, has never had the type of talent he now inherits in San Diego - reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson, sack monster Shawne Merriman and QB Philip Rivers, whose playoff performance against the Patriots (14-of-32, 230 yards, INT) fell far short of his terrific regular season (22 TDs, 9 INTs).

The Chargers played dumb in the divisional-round loss, and Turner’s main job will be keeping his Pro Bowl-laden roster focused through a 16-game grind that no doubt will feel like a letdown from last year’s 14-2 magic carpet ride. Former Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera, now San Diego’s linebackers coach, presides over a changing of the guard inside, where Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper replace Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey.

3) What does Eric Mangini have up his sleeve?

Disgruntled G Pete Kendall (Weymouth) isn’t a big fan, and we’re still not sure what Bill Belichick thinks of him. But Mangini generally earned rave reviews for his head-coaching debut, even though his 10-6 Jets beat only one team (the Patriots, up here) that finished with a winning record. Year 2 can be a tricky proposition, although trading for Bears RB Thomas Jones and drafting Pitt CB Darrelle Revis should help bolster a roster that doesn’t yet match up to the other AFC big dogs in sheer talent.

The big issue facing Mangini is his shoddy run defense. The Jets ranked 24th there last season and surrendered 147, 143 and 158 yards to the Patriots in their three meetings. The front seven returns virtually intact - although rookie ILB David Harris might be heard from before long - so the Jets will have to simply play better. An 0-2 start is possible since they draw the Pats and Ravens right out of the chute.

4) Vince Young or Jay Cutler?

The AFC’s two first-round QBs didn’t disappoint. Young, the league’s Rookie of the Year, was a bolt of lightning, throwing for 12 TDs (against 13 picks) and rushing for seven more. He showed moxie (authoring an epic comeback against the Giants) and helped the Titans dig out of an 0-5 hole to an 8-8 finish. Cutler couldn’t get the Broncos into the playoffs after he pried Jake Plummer out of the lineup in Week 13, but in five starts he wasn’t overwhelmed (9 TDs, 5 INTs, 88.5 rating) while becoming the first rookie ever to throw multiple TDs in each of his first four games.

Ben Roethlisberger won Super Bowl XL with a 22.6 passer rating (9-of-21, 2 INTs), and it’s been all downhill from there. An offseason motorcycle accident and a preseason appendectomy were too much for the Steelers’ QB to overcome in 2006. He threw seven picks before he got his first touchdown, lost his first three starts and put up final numbers - 18 TDs, 23 INTs (an NFL high), 75.4 rating - that were miles away from what we had come to expect from him in his first two seasons. Can a guy who won 27 of his first 31 NFL starts, playoffs included, find himself again?

He’ll have to do with a new-look coaching staff as 34-year-old Mike Tomlin takes over for Cowher. Former offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, now coaching Arizona, said the Steelers rushed Roethlisberger back too soon last year. We’ll buy that. Two keys to a potential resurgence: the continued development of second-year WR Santonio Holmes (49 catches as a rookie) and the innovations of new offensive coordinator Bruce Arians (more no-huddle, letting Roethlisberger change protection calls at the line.)

6) Can the Ravens run the ball?

When Jamal Lewis was cranking out 2,066 yards in 2003, this would have been a ridiculous question, but Baltimore’s ground game has gone into a three-year decline. Last season the Ravens ranked 25th in yards per game (102.3) and second-to-last in average gain (3.4). They won the AFC North with a 13-3 record, but the lack of balanced attack contributed to their 15-6 home playoff loss to the hated Colts. (Wonder if the fans with long memories have forgiven them for that yet.)

Anyway, enter former Bills back Willis McGahee, who was bored in Buffalo (can’t blame him) but should find more stimulation in Baltimore. McGahee averaged a pedestrian 3.8 yards each of the last two seasons, but he has more sizzle than the lumbering Lewis (now with Cleveland) and should provide an added dimension to offensive coordinator Rick Neuheisel. The Ravens are long in the tooth, although creaky QB Steve McNair, 34, improved over the course of his first season in Baltimore (11 TDs, 5 INTs over the final 10 games).

7) Can the Bengals stop anybody?

Cincinnati’s blind spot for criminals-in-training has not served it well. Receiver Chris Henry is banned for the first eight games of this season, and LB Odell Thurman will have to ask his way back onto the team after being suspended for the entire 2006 campaign. Yet one character risk seems to have panned out as the Bengals are counting heavily on second-year middle linebacker Ahmad Brooks to fix a defense that finished 30th overall, dead last in first downs and tied for 31st against the pass.

Brooks’ marijuana issues got him kicked off Virginia and led to him being selected in the 2006 supplemental draft. With LB/DE David Pollack (neck) sitting out this season, it’s crucial that Brooks (five starts as a rookie) and newcomer Ed Hartwell (a budding Ravens star who was a free-agent bust with Atlanta) stabilize the middle line of defense. Cincy, which choked away a playoff spot last season by losing its last three, also needs young CBs Johnathan Joseph (second year) and Leon Hall (first-round rookie) to mature quickly.

8) Will LJ play?

Since their quarterback choice will come down to either unproven second-year man Brodie Croyle or career backup/good guy Damon Huard, the Chiefs would love to keep feeding the NFL’s second-best running back. But after a season in which he carried a league-record 416 times for 1,789 yards and 17 TDs, Larry Johnson wants a significant salary bump and is threatening to hold out. He turns 28 in November and has correctly pointed to the myriad health problems he’s likely to face down the road as justification for turning his nose up at the scheduled $1.7 million he’s supposed to make this season.

Johnson’s backup is 5-9 Michael Bennett, who did rush for 1,296 yards for the Vikings in 2002. But Kansas City envisions him as a change-of-pace guy, not a bell cow. With their offensive line in decay - 12-time Pro Bowl G Will Shields has followed Willie Roaf into retirement - and their cornerback duo of Ty Law and Patrick Surtain on the downslope, the Chiefs appear poised for a fall. Maybe Johnson should stay away.

9) JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn?

The two first-round QBs from this year’s draft are supposed to be franchise saviors. Russell, picked first overall, ultimately must lead the Raiders out of their Dark Ages - a 15-49 record in the four years since their 2002 AFC crown. Last season was the pits as a prehistoric offense generated only 12 touchdowns - 12! - and Oakland scored 14 or fewer points in each of its last nine games. Quinn’s task in Cleveland might be even greater. A hometown boy, he has to rescue his head coach (Romeo Crennel) and GM (Randy Savage), who are 10-22 (1-11 in the division) in two years on the job.

Russell might sit behind newly acquired Josh McCown at the start, and - don’t laugh - Oakland could be halfway decent, at least until a rough closing schedule kicks in. The Raiders had the league’s third-ranked defense last year, and CB Nnamdi Asomugha is a rising star. Offensive lines will figure prominently in both Russell’s and Quinn’s development. The Raiders need to salvage LT Robert Gallery’s career, and the Browns are banking on rookie LT Joe Thomas and free agent G Eric Steinbach.

10) Can Jack Del Rio and Byron Leftwich co-exist?

The Jaguars coach publicly proclaimed Leftwich as his starting QB during the offseason, but he also said he’d be interested in signing Daunte Culpepper as a backup. Del Rio benched Leftwich after six games last season, citing an ankle injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Backup David Garrard was average in Leftwich’s absence, and Leftwich’s contract expires after the season. Del Rio himself is on the hot seat, so there’s a lot of uncertainty here.

Whoever gets the QB nod needs the Jags’ inscrutable receiving corps to pick it up. Reggie Williams (6-4), Matt Jones (6-6) and Ernest Wilford (6-4) all have tremendous size and (we guess) potential, but they have yet to put it all together. The Jags play great defense and can run the heck out of the ball. But their passing game, which ranked 24th last season with 17 TDs and 14 INTs, is holding them back.

Eric McHugh of The Patriot Ledger (Quincy, Mass.) may be reached at emchugh@ledger.com.