motherscratcher wrote:But in 2 years, he will have dropped off the arbitrary "last 10 SB" list, so he won't be included in stupid arguments that Browns fans make while they try to convince themselves that our franchise QB is out there just waiting for Lombardi to select him in the 3 rd round.

There have been 19 QBs selected in the Top 5 picks since RETURN OF BORWNS:

Eli's the only one to win a Super Bowl. McNabb's the only other QB on that list who advanced far enough to play in the game. And if I'm remembering right, Mark Sanchez(!), Alex Smith(!), Philip Rivers, and Matt Ryan are the only others who've gotten as far as a conference championship game.

Of the 14 Super Bowls played since RETURN OF BORWNS, only 3 of them have been won by teams with QBs selected in the Top 5 picks, all with the last name Manning. Only 2 others made it to the game with the team that drafted them--both Irishmen, coincidentally (McNair & McNabb). (+Peyton's return appearance)

^Not reasons to wait until the 3rd round, but reasons to not sell the farm to move up into the Top 5 for a QB. Especially when you're giving your Top 5 QB the disadvantage of depleted resources for a supporting cast.

Last edited by HoodooMan on Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.

motherscratcher wrote:But in 2 years, he will have dropped off the arbitrary "last 10 SB" list, so he won't be included in stupid arguments that Browns fans make while they try to convince themselves that our franchise QB is out there just waiting for Lombardi to select him in the 3 rd round.

There have been 19 QBs selected in the Top 5 picks since RETURN OF BORWNS:

Eli's the only one to win a Super Bowl. McNabb's the only other QB on that list who advanced far enough to play in the game. And if I'm remembering right, Mark Sanchez(!), Alex Smith(!), Philip Rivers, and Matt Ryan are the only others who've gotten as far as a conference championship game.

Of the 14 Super Bowls played since RETURN OF BORWNS, only 3 of them have been won by teams with QBs selected in the Top 5 picks, all with the last name Manning. Only 2 others made it to the game with the team that drafted them--both Irishmen, coincidentally (McNair & McNabb). (+Peyton's return appearance)

^Not reasons to wait until the 3rd round, but reasons to not sell the farm to move up into the Top 5 for a QB. Especially when you're giving your Top 5 QB the disadvantage of depleted resources for a supporting cast.

Who said anything about top 5 picks? jfilings post was about QBs selected to be franchise QBs, and how apparently most of the QB's that win the Super Bowl aren't selected to be franchise QB's (or something), as if most teams just fall ass backwards into a Super Bowl QB without trying. And that's just flat wrong.

Every QB selected in the first round is selected with the team intending to make them the franchise QB. It's not like Green Bay selected Rodgers to be their long term back up, what, because they didn't have any other holes so why not get a kid to back up Brett forever? You don't use 1sts (or 2nds) for backups, even if they aren't top 5. That doesn't mean it always works out, as your list clearly demonstrates.

But the overwhelming majority of dudes who get there and win that big wheel of cheese are selected becusue their team thought they would be the guy. Manning, Manning, Rodgers, POS, Flacco, Brees...these guys were selected to be THE GUY.

Brady is the lone exception.

If you are looking at QB's who can win it all and have won it all and come away with the conclusion that your are just as likely to luck into one as opposed to making a clear and definite selection of one with a top draft pick I don't think you are looking at the right lists. Because that's a shitty strategy.

I'm not saying they have to give up the farm to move into the top 2 to get Teddy. I don't think that's going to end up being an option anymore after the last 8 days. But you can't just sit back and select Colt Part Deux in the 3rd and settle in for the Noodle Arm vs Hoyer spring training showdown to take you to the promised land. Becasue that ain't happenin' bub.

motherscratcher wrote:But in 2 years, he will have dropped off the arbitrary "last 10 SB" list, so he won't be included in stupid arguments that Browns fans make while they try to convince themselves that our franchise QB is out there just waiting for Lombardi to select him in the 3 rd round.

There have been 19 QBs selected in the Top 5 picks since RETURN OF BORWNS:

Eli's the only one to win a Super Bowl. McNabb's the only other QB on that list who advanced far enough to play in the game. And if I'm remembering right, Mark Sanchez(!), Alex Smith(!), Philip Rivers, and Matt Ryan are the only others who've gotten as far as a conference championship game.

Of the 14 Super Bowls played since RETURN OF BORWNS, only 3 of them have been won by teams with QBs selected in the Top 5 picks, all with the last name Manning. Only 2 others made it to the game with the team that drafted them--both Irishmen, coincidentally (McNair & McNabb). (+Peyton's return appearance)

^Not reasons to wait until the 3rd round, but reasons to not sell the farm to move up into the Top 5 for a QB. Especially when you're giving your Top 5 QB the disadvantage of depleted resources for a supporting cast.

Vick played in The Game.

But that's not why I called.

This is a significant post and don't let people shit on it DooDoo.

But I don't conclude the takeaway is highly drafted QBs bust or don't draft them that high.

Instead I conclude that the standard of QB success being a SB is both artificial and antedelluvian thinking. Lets face it, it takes a lot of just plain luck to win a SB or even get there. It's flukey. And for a lot of the guys you mentioned the future has yet to be written.

This is also the ultimate team sports. If Atlantas D decides to stop shitting the bed at the first sight of post season does that validate Matty Ice suddenly? Is that remotely logical?

But a huge factor is the obvious one and that these guys go to truly awful teams. The expectation is that these QBs are supposed to be Achilles in cleats from snap one and that's just not reality. The guys going mid round 1 are almost as talented and planted in far better situations. It matters.

You take Kobe beef and put it on a BK chain well done its not nearly gonna be USDA choice in the hands of a chef at a 4 diamond.

jb wrote:But a huge factor is the obvious one and that these guys go to truly awful teams. The expectation is that these QBs are supposed to be Achilles in cleats from snap one and that's just not reality. The guys going mid round 1 are almost as talented and planted in far better situations. It matters.

Yep, and really what I'm getting at most is that my position on drafting 1st round QBs is exactly the same as it is on drafting any other position I'd be willing to spend a 1st round pick on. Maximize opportunities, and patience, patience, patience. If you can move up for someone you love at a low cost, fine. Otherwise, take what the draft's giving you. If a quality QB prospect doesn't fall to us in 2014, there's always 2015...or 2016, etc. When you're in position for the right guy, the risk is fine, but compounding the risk by using 2-3 1st round picks+ is always going to be unacceptable, IMO.

If our fat ass team gets Hoyer-lifted to 7-9 and stupid Indy keeps winning to put those picks in the middle & end of round 1, as far as I'm concerned, awesome. In New Regime Year 1, that's legit culture change. And I'm perfectly content to Fitzpatrick our way through a couple seasons with Hoyer while building up the rest of the team until we're in position for the right QB prospect.

And who knows, maybe this is the draft that there's an attractive mid-1st QB prospect out there for us.

ETA: and I missed Vick's NFC Championship appearance, but he never played in THE Game.

EATA: Seattle & Denver had better keep it going for 1 & 3 more weeks, respectively. If Indy catches both of after they've exhausted their early season hot streaks, after catching SF without Vernon Davis, that's some BS.

jb wrote:But a huge factor is the obvious one and that these guys go to truly awful teams. The expectation is that these QBs are supposed to be Achilles in cleats from snap one and that's just not reality. The guys going mid round 1 are almost as talented and planted in far better situations. It matters.

Yep, and really what I'm getting at most is that my position on drafting 1st round QBs is exactly the same as it is on drafting any other position I'd be willing to spend a 1st round pick on. Maximize opportunities, and patience, patience, patience. If you can move up for someone you love at a low cost, fine. Otherwise, take what the draft's giving you. If a quality QB prospect doesn't fall to us in 2014, there's always 2015...or 2016, etc. When you're in position for the right guy, the risk is fine, but compounding the risk by using 2-3 1st round picks+ is always going to be unacceptable, IMO.

If our fat ass team gets Hoyer-lifted to 7-9 and stupid Indy keeps winning to put those picks in the middle & end of round 1, as far as I'm concerned, awesome. In New Regime Year 1, that's legit culture change. And I'm perfectly content to Fitzpatrick our way through a couple seasons with Hoyer while building up the rest of the team until we're in position for the right QB prospect.

And who knows, maybe this is the draft that there's an attractive mid-1st QB prospect out there for us.

ETA: and I missed Vick's NFC Championship appearance, but he never played in THE Game.

EATA: Seattle & Denver had better keep it going for 1 & 3 more weeks, respectively. If Indy catches both of after they've exhausted their early season hot streaks, after catching SF without Vernon Davis, that's some BS.

My bad you right - thought Vick got there with ATL & Dan Reeves.

I think it imperative to get a 1 round QB this off season. Not content to Fitzpatrick waiting to draft him. but I am for part of a season until he's ready.

Now whether we need to trade 'em all for 1 or 2 guys rather than let the draft come to us? Think I'm on fence but I groc you.

In the spirit of our 3-2ness and Pittsburgh's 0-4ness, I've allowed myself to become tickled by the idea of us drafting Tommy Pickles lookalike Johnny Manziel.

Just think, if we could continue to be good, and they could continue to be bad, and we were good while being led by a player who was hatable on the same level of a Joey Porter, Hines Ward, or James Harrison?

HoodooMan wrote:In the spirit of our 3-2ness and Pittsburgh's 0-4ness, I've allowed myself to become tickled by the idea of us drafting Tommy Pickles lookalike Johnny Manziel.

Just think, if we could continue to be good, and they could continue to be bad, and we were good while being led by a player who was hatable on the same level of a Joey Porter, Hines Ward, or James Harrison?

Oooh, that would be fun.

Except for the enormous potential that no team with Tommy Pickles at QB is gonna be good.

Arm is strong. This wasn't most impressive effort but didn't need to be.

Some back foot throws and a few late over the middle which are annoying, but again, hard to say how good he had to be against Buffs. Some throws are ridiculous in terms of ball placement and fitting some throws in.

Arm is strong. This wasn't most impressive effort but didn't need to be.

Some back foot throws and a few late over the middle which are annoying, but again, hard to say how good he had to be against Buffs. Some throws are ridiculous in terms of ball placement and fitting some throws in.

Arm is strong. This wasn't most impressive effort but didn't need to be.

Some back foot throws and a few late over the middle which are annoying, but again, hard to say how good he had to be against Buffs. Some throws are ridiculous in terms of ball placement and fitting some throws in.

Just saw this and figured I'd throw it up here.

So Mariotta is your sleeper this year?

No. It's a college QB thread, he's not a sleeper and I got the youtube and decided to throw it up there for conversation.

That was every throw/run from one game.

You have a lot of other pressing issues to attend to that this gets in the way of?

Arm is strong. This wasn't most impressive effort but didn't need to be.

Some back foot throws and a few late over the middle which are annoying, but again, hard to say how good he had to be against Buffs. Some throws are ridiculous in terms of ball placement and fitting some throws in.

Just saw this and figured I'd throw it up here.

So Mariotta is your sleeper this year?

No. It's a college QB thread, he's not a sleeper and I got the youtube and decided to throw it up there for conversation.

That was every throw/run from one game.

You have a lot of other pressing issues to attend to that this gets in the way of?

The list of pressing duties that stand in the way of busting Peeker's balls in a good natured way is a rather short one.

Arm is strong. This wasn't most impressive effort but didn't need to be.

Some back foot throws and a few late over the middle which are annoying, but again, hard to say how good he had to be against Buffs. Some throws are ridiculous in terms of ball placement and fitting some throws in.

Just saw this and figured I'd throw it up here.

Pretty sure Weeden could make that near interception on the screen pass. First minute is awful to watch. No pocket patience at all, the second he gets the ball he's looking to scramble out of the pocket. He won't be able to do that in the NFL, so hopefully that would be coachable. Throws into a tight window on the slant, down to near the goal line, nice throw.

His mechanics are awful. I don't know if I saw him throw with the same base twice. A mess. This is actually the first time I've seen Mariota, but I don't think I'd like the pick if the Browns made it, just my opinion.

leadpipe wrote:Lookin' forward to seeing Hundley take on Stanford this weekend.

Stanford D, coming off a loss, and being disrespected by being dropped all the way to 13, even though there's only a half dozen teams favored over them on a neutral....

Gonna be an excellent test.

Agreed. Excited to see Tajh Boyd take on a real defense as well. Total look-ahead spot for Clemson last week, so we'll see what Boyd comes up with this week.

Teddy Bridgewater will face his best defense of the season tomorrow night when UCF comes to town. A UCF team that hung with South Carolina and even shut them out in the first half before Spurrier switched to a power run game and they ran it down UCF's throat.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Arm is strong. This wasn't most impressive effort but didn't need to be.

Some back foot throws and a few late over the middle which are annoying, but again, hard to say how good he had to be against Buffs. Some throws are ridiculous in terms of ball placement and fitting some throws in.

Just saw this and figured I'd throw it up here.

Pretty sure Weeden could make that near interception on the screen pass. First minute is awful to watch. No pocket patience at all, the second he gets the ball he's looking to scramble out of the pocket. He won't be able to do that in the NFL, so hopefully that would be coachable. Throws into a tight window on the slant, down to near the goal line, nice throw.

His mechanics are awful. I don't know if I saw him throw with the same base twice. A mess. This is actually the first time I've seen Mariota, but I don't think I'd like the pick if the Browns made it, just my opinion.

Yep. One game though. Like I said, wouldn't base a choice on it, but there were some scary traits and characteristics on some throws, I agree.

I mean, all three of these clips (Mariota, Boyd and Hundley) were against shitty opponents, so there's that.

But Hundley is most impressive to me on the given video. The 330-430 mark on this video and look how he reads over the whole field and makes the right throws and decisions there. Escapability, gonna have to make quicker decisions in NFL, big arm and stands in under pressure.

Hikohadon wrote:I think I picked the wrong weekend to finally watch Boyd and Hundley. They both looked like diseased intestines Saturday.

I didn't see either but the numbers sure weren't pretty.

Did they look as bad as their numbers?

Yep.

Especially disappointed by Hundley. Every time the ball left his hand it looked like a blind cow was shooting a crossbow at a gnat. I can see that he is physically talented, but so have thousands of other college QB's that couldn't run an NFL offense any better than Spurgeon Wynn.

I'm sure he has looked MUCH better, there wouldn't be so much hype otherwise. So I'll watch a few more of his games before I formulate any lasting opinion.

Hikohadon wrote:I think I picked the wrong weekend to finally watch Boyd and Hundley. They both looked like diseased intestines Saturday.

I didn't see either but the numbers sure weren't pretty.

Did they look as bad as their numbers?

Yep.

Especially disappointed by Hundley. Every time the ball left his hand it looked like a blind cow was shooting a crossbow at a gnat. I can see that he is physically talented, but so have thousands of other college QB's that couldn't run an NFL offense any better than Spurgeon Wynn.

I'm sure he has looked MUCH better, there wouldn't be so much hype otherwise. So I'll watch a few more of his games before I formulate any lasting opinion.

Not good. If a guy wets the bed against a quality college defense, well, that's a red flag. Not a deal breaker by any means, but not a good sign.

I know he didn't have an especially impressive showing on Saturday night either, but my favorite non-QB prospect to date has been Sammy Watkins. And if, as I expect, we'll be out of range for the top QB prospects in the draft thanks to our Hoyer Lift, I'd be cool with:

1A: Watkins1B: OL/DB2: RB3A: OL/DB3B: OL/DB

...and run with Hoyer + Late round scratch off QB + FA Anyone in 2014.

HoodooMan wrote:I know he didn't have an especially impressive showing on Saturday night either, but my favorite non-QB prospect to date has been Sammy Watkins. And if, as I expect, we'll be out of range for the top QB prospects in the draft thanks to our Hoyer Lift, I'd be cool with:

1A: Watkins1B: OL/DB2: RB3A: OL/DB3B: OL/DB

...and run with Hoyer + Late round scratch off QB + FA Anyone in 2014.

Better than forcing it with Boyd or Pickles.

Agree with all that. Except maybe the RB in the 2nd thing, I don't think there's a need to take one before the 3rd unless some special talent just drops to the 2nd for no reason (haven't done my RB homework yet).

HoodooMan wrote:I know he didn't have an especially impressive showing on Saturday night either, but my favorite non-QB prospect to date has been Sammy Watkins. And if, as I expect, we'll be out of range for the top QB prospects in the draft thanks to our Hoyer Lift, I'd be cool with:

1A: Watkins1B: OL/DB2: RB3A: OL/DB3B: OL/DB

...and run with Hoyer + Late round scratch off QB + FA Anyone in 2014.

Better than forcing it with Boyd or Pickles.

Agree with all that. Except maybe the RB in the 2nd thing, I don't think there's a need to take one before the 3rd unless some special talent just drops to the 2nd for no reason (haven't done my RB homework yet).

You get a 21st century space back.

The good ones come round 2. Seastrunk comes to mind.

But to the overall point?

Hmmmmmm.......

IDK. I think you draft a QB but you change expectations. You now treat your QB like all other 21 positions. Hoyer can let us do that.

Hikohadon wrote:I like Mariota a lot too, but I get the feeling he'll be the 2nd QB off the board, meaning likely not there at 6.

Yep.

Just take a look at the bottom of the NFL standings:

JAX 0-7TB 0-6NYG 0-6MIN 1-4HOU 2-5OAK 2-4

You have to figure chances are really good that at least one of Hundley or Mariota returns to school. How are we going to leapfrog JAX or TB? And unless Freeman blows up in MIN, that's another team that's almost certain to pick a QB ahead of us. Do either of Houston or Oakland pass on Hundley or Mariota?

It was a fun stretch with Hoyer, but it almost certainly cost us a tippy top QB prospect this year.