All posts tagged Jobs Report

Yes, it’s that time again, folks. It’s the first Friday of the month, when for one ever-so-brief moment the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: Jobs.

A fresh update on the U.S. employment situation for December hits the wires at 8:30 a.m. New York time, offering one of the most important snapshots on how the economy fared last month. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect 160,000 new jobs were created — up from 146,000 jobs added in November — with the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.7%.

Here at MarketBeat HQ, we’ll be offering color commentary and tracking the markets before and after the data crosses the wires. Feel free to weigh-in yourself, via the comments section. And while you’re here, why don’t you sign up to follow us on Twitter.

Enjoy the show.

8:04 am (EST)

Jobs Report Less Than 30 Minutes Away

Steven Russolillo

Welcome aboard, folks. Yet another jobs report is coming our way shortly. Stock futures are relatively unchanged, but the big story of the day is what's going on in the Treasury market. Prices have been slammed to start the year, pushing yields higher. The benchmark 10-year yield currently stands at 1.95%.

Count Goldman Sachs in the camp that is anticipating a better-than-expected monthly jobs report on Friday.

Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, boosted his December nonfarm payrolls estimate to 200,000, from his previous expectation of 175,000, citing improving jobs data. He also sees the unemployment rate holding at 7.7%.

“This morning's ADP employment report was significantly better than expected,” Hatzius says. “Separately, initial jobless claims were higher than expected this morning, but the Labor Department reported some holiday distortions. Overall, the data since our preliminary estimate last Friday have been strong enough to prompt us to revise up our forecast.”

While the jobs report this morning was a pleasant surprise, the underlying trend hasn’t changed: jobs continue to grow at a frustratingly slow pace.

In this week’s edition of MarketBeat Week, our Friday podcast, Stephen Grocer, Paul Vigna and Steven Russolillo discuss how the labor market was able to shrug off superstorm Sandy.

Economists had predicted the storm would skew the numbers. But 146,000 jobs were added last month, while the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008.

In addition, based on Apple Inc’s latest stock swoon, the crew wonders whether the tech juggernaut’s shares will ever be able to revert back to record levels.

Also, the fact that the SEC may bring suit against Netflix Inc. and CEO Reed Hastings over one of his Facebook posts sparked a lively debate over what actually constitutes a fair disclosure by a company.

Yes, it’s that time again, folks. It’s the first Friday of the month, when for one ever-so-brief moment the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: Jobs.

A fresh update on the U.S. employment situation for November hits the wires at 8:30 a.m. New York time, offering one of the most important snapshots on how the economy fared last month. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect 80,000 new jobs were created — down from 171,000 jobs added in October — with the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.9%.

Here at MarketBeat HQ, we’ll be offering color commentary and tracking the markets before and after the data crosses the wires. Feel free to weigh-in yourself, via the comments section. And while you’re here, why don’t you sign up to follow us on Twitter.

Enjoy the show.

For more MarketBeat and other streaming markets coverage from The Wall Street Journal, point your mobile browser to wsj.com/marketspulse.

8:03 am (EST)

Here we go...

Steven Russolillo

Welcome aboard, folks. This could be of the least important jobs reports of the year. Sandy distortions, Thanksgiving and the election all skewed the data. Nonetheless, we're still here! And we'll break it all down before and after the report hits the wires.

Watch for: November nonfarm payrolls (8:30 a.m. Eastern Time): seen rising 80,000, after rising 171,000 in October, with unemployment rate flat at 7.9%. Reuters/UMich December consumer sentiment (prelim) (9:55): seen slipping to 82 from the end-November reading of 82.7. October consumer credit (3:00 p.m.): seen expanding by $11.4 billion, after expanding by $11.4 billion in September.

For more MarketBeat and other streaming markets coverage from The Wall Street Journal, point your mobile browser to wsj.com/marketspulse.

The Breakfast Briefing

Ignore the jobs report.

A combination of Superstorm Sandy, the presidential election and Thanksgiving mean the November employment data will likely offer a more distorted view of the labor market than usual.

Joseph Lavorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said he expects the jobs data will be “significantly depressed,” predominately due to the storm. At the same time, he doesn’t think investors should freak out.

“The markets may be willing to look past this short-term weakness,” Mr. Lavorgna said, as disappointing figures in the near term could be offset by stronger figures early next year.

Sandy’s impact has already been felt in uglier-than-usual weekly jobless claims, and ADP on Wednesday estimated the storm would slice 86,000 jobs from the November total.

Typically the two surveys are based on data from the week of the 12th of the month. But because of Thanksgiving, the household survey – used to calculate the unemployment rate — was moved up a week, when there were widespread power outages, flooding and mass-transit problems immediately following Sandy. This survey was also conducted during the election, further complicating matters.

Meanwhile, the business survey was conducted a week later, when the Sandy aftermath wasn’t as extreme.

That means a divergence could occur where the number of jobs isn’t as bad as forecast, while the unemployment rate comes in worse than usual.

Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires estimate the economy added 80,000 jobs in November. By comparison, the economy has added an average 173,000 jobs a month since July, more than doubling the pace of job growth in the spring.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 7.9%.

Based on all these potential distortions, don’t be surprised if this jobs report comes and goes without much of a reaction. And then, the fiscal cliff could once again take center stage.

Cliff Notes: After days public posturing, private talks over how to avoid the fiscal cliff have resumed between the staff of House Speaker John Boehner and the White House, according to WSJ.

Morning MarketBeat Daily Factoid: On this day in 1941, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in a bombing that killed more than 2,300 Americans and dragged the U.S. into World War II.

Yes, it’s that time again, folks. It’s the first Friday of the month, when for one ever-so-brief moment the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: Jobs.

A fresh update on the U.S. employment situation for October hits the wires at 8:30 a.m. New York time, offering one of the most important snapshots on how the economy fared last month. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect 125,000 new jobs were created — up from 114,000 jobs added in September — with the unemployment rate ticking up to 7.9%, from 7.8% a month earlier.

Here at MarketBeat HQ, we’ll be offering color commentary and tracking the markets before and after the data crosses the wires. Feel free to weigh-in yourself, via the comments section. And while you’re here, why don’t you sign up to follow us on Twitter.

Enjoy the show.

For more MarketBeat and other streaming markets coverage from The Wall Street Journal, point your mobile browser to wsj.com/marketspulse.

8:04 am (EDT)

Here We Go Again!

Steven Russolillo

Welcome aboard, folks. We're back at it again, live blogging the almighty monthly jobs report. With the election right around the corner, this one will be extra special.

Quick check of the markets show Stock futures are essentially flat. Dow futures are down 5 points and S&P 500 futures are flat. Crude oil is down 0.9%, while gold is off 0.5% and silver is down 1%.

The latest buzz out of Washington is the jobs report may not be released on Friday as originally scheduled due to the severity of Hurricane Sandy.

A Labor Department official says a final decision hasn’t been made yet.

A slew of corporate earnings releases have been delayed this week due to Sandy. Economic reports have also been impacted. The Conference Board has moved the release of its consumer confidence report to 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, instead of its regularly scheduled Tuesday release. For now, S&P says it will report its home price index tomorrow.

Moving the jobs report would be a big decision, especially with the presidential election scheduled for one week from tomorrow.

Jack Welch, former CEO at General Electric, took to Twitter this morning to voice his displeasure with the jobs report. He called it “unbelievable” and seemed to blame the Obama administration for a fudging of the figures:

President Obama is from Chicago and built his political career in that area. His re-election campaign is also headquartered in Chicago.

One would assume Welch’s critique centers around the big jump seen in the household survey, which showed 873,000 people found jobs last month, the largest increase since January 2003. That played a big role in dragging down the unemployment rate to 7.8%, the lowest mark since January 2009 when Obama took office.

Yes, it’s that time again, folks. It’s the first Friday of the month, when for one ever-so-brief moment the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: Jobs.

A fresh update on the U.S. employment situation for September hits the wires at 8:30 a.m. New York time, offering one of the most important snapshots on how the economy fared last month. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect 118,000 new jobs were created — up from 96,000 jobs added in August — with the unemployment rate sticking at 8.1%.

Here at MarketBeat HQ, we’ll be offering color commentary and tracking the markets before and after the data crosses the wires. Feel free to weigh-in yourself, via the comments section. And while you’re here, why don’t you sign up to follow us on Twitter.

Enjoy the show.

8:04 am (EDT)

Jobs Friday, Here We Come!

Steven Russolillo

Welcome aboard, folks. Hard to believe that yet another monthly jobs report is on tap in just a few minutes. This report may not hold as much luster as previous employment data points, especially considering the Fed has already made its move. But c'mon people, it's a jobs report! Get pumped up!

Eventually, the noise of a difficult global investing environment–marked by euro-zone uncertainty, geopolitical risks and unprecedented central-bank activity–will push both September data and the August revisions into the background. But for a little while we could have something to play with.

Perhaps the labor market is doing better than the jobs report suggests.

Amid all the hoopla about job growth falling short of economists’ expectations and the boosted probability of QE3, research firm Stone & McCarthy points to a strange historical anomaly within the jobs data: August payroll figures typically miss estimates, and then get revised higher.

In 21 out of the last 28 years, the August payroll figures have come in below economists’ expectations, the firm says. That trend included today’s report, as payrolls increased by 96,000 jobs last month, below the 125,000 jobs economists had been expecting.

Stocks have traded around the flat line for much of the session, Treasury prices are up and precious metals have jumped as investors play the QE-trade. The smaller-than-forecast gain of 96,000 jobs for August lent support to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s assessment at the end of August that the labor market remains a “grave” concern.

Strategists and economists have been beating the QE drum all day, with expectations rising that the Fed is likely to act at its next policy meeting on Sept. 12-13.

About MarketBeat

MarketBeat looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news, analyzing trends and highlighting noteworthy commentary from the best blogs and research. MarketBeat is updated frequently throughout the day, helping investors stay on top of what’s happening in the markets. Lead writers Paul Vigna and Steven Russolillo spearhead the MarketBeat team, with contributions from other Journal reporters and editors. Have a comment? Write to paul.vigna@wsj.com or steven.russolillo@wsj.com.

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