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Kansas Governor: Sebelius by 17

On Eve of Primary Strongest GOP Candidate Far Behind

July 31, 2006

Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius

In our latest poll of the gubernatorial race here, conducted two weeks before the August 1 primaries, Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius maintains a comfortable lead over top candidates for the GOP nomination. The poll shows her with leads of 52% to 31% over former state House Speaker Robin Jennison, 51% to 34% over State Senator Jim Barnett.

Observers attribute the continuing popularity of the Democratic chief executive to a combination of disarray among Republicans and her ability to reach out to GOP moderates. In addition to attracting 87% support from Democrats in each match-up, the governor also wins more than 30% of Republicans, 50% or more of unaffiliated voters, two thirds of moderates.

Sebelius is viewed favorably by 70% of all voters, including 58% of Republicans. Her job approval numbers are also high—even 49% of conservatives at least "somewhat" approve.

Jennison is viewed favorably by 36%, Barnett by 42%. A third of voters don't know either GOP candidate well enough to offer an opinion.

George W. Bush earns approval from 53% for his performance as President, about fifteen percentage points higher than the national average.

District-level campaigns for the state board of education have also drawn national attention. The board ignited a furor last year for adopting new science standards questioning the validity of the theory of evolution, and several board members supporting the new standards have faced primary challengers.

One of our questions may shed light on the election results. It finds that while Kansas voters are roughly split over the abortion issue, 58% say the Bible is literally true—double the number who say it is not. That includes 56% of Democrats, 62% of Republicans.

Thirty percent (30%) say the economy is the most important issue affecting their vote than picked any other issue. Sixteen percent (16%) say immigration, 15% say national security.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2006 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. We update the President's Job Approval Ratings daily and are polling every Senate and Governor's race at least once a month in 2006.

Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Thel telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports
July 17, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage
points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology)