Zimbabwe’s referendum

On to the polls

A large turnout to endorse a new constitution augurs well for elections

BUSINESSMEN in Zimbabwe like to say that local roads may be terrible but, unlike in some neighbouring countries, at least they exist. This glass-half-full attitude may explain the surprising enthusiasm with which Zimbabweans turned out on March 16th to endorse a new constitution.

The revised rulebook has its flaws. It keeps the government on a tighter leash, but is still short on checks. The referendum itself came only weeks after a draft was agreed on, leaving little time for public debate. Yet more than 3.3m voters (out of an electoral roll of 6m, bloated by the names of many deceased) turned up and 93% voted yes. All the parties in Zimbabwe’s uneasy governing coalition had endorsed the document as well.

This paves the way for overdue elections, perhaps as soon as mid-July. The manner of the referendum, as much as its substance, gives reason for optimism. The voting went smoothly. Violence was rare; polling stations opened on time; results were announced within three days. Unfortunately, the indelible ink used to mark voters poisoned a few returning officers.

A presidential election is unlikely to be as calm. Even if monitors from neighbouring countries—others would not be welcome—were able to prevent blatant rigging, they could not stop the bullying of voters and opponents of President Robert Mugabe by thugs loyal to his party, Zanu-PF. The referendum was barely over when four members of the political team of Morgan Tsvangirai, the president’s main challenger, were arrested by police on dubious charges. Beatrice Mtetwa, a human-rights lawyer, was also detained.

Such intimidation of opponents is likely to increase as the election draws nearer, especially if Mr Mugabe’s supporters fear he might lose. Recent polls show him and Mr Tsvangirai running neck-and-neck, even though a large proportion of voters refuse to say whom they will back. It is likely that many don’t-knows are Tsvangirai supporters who fear admitting that to opinion pollsters.

The referendum showed a hunger for participation among Zimbabweans, if not explicitly for new leadership. Were the high turnout to be repeated on polling day, it would make it harder to rig the election.

Investors sense that things are looking up. Zimbabwe’s main stockmarket has risen more than 20% this year. The recent history of the country may be an invitation to expect the worst. But some in Zimbabwe are quietly preparing for the best.