How quickly will Zito start wondering about what could’ve been… in New York?

I better type this caveat again right now: Barry Zito is a very, very good young left-handed starting pitcher whose imminent $126-million signing with the Giants makes them a better team and gives them a new centerpiece personality for years to come.

Bully for Peter Magowan and Brian Sabean for being desperate enough to toss out the big cash for the first time in a long time (and let’s see how the Other Barry accepts this–if at all).

And yet… Yep, I’m always the and-yet guy.

And yet: Did Zito agree to this deal because he was convinced the Giants were his destiny… or just because Magowan offered so much more cash than the New York franchises, which were his first and second choices, and his agent told him he had to take the most cash?

Hmm.

Here’s a little item that caught my attention: The New York Daily News reports today that Zito’s father called somebody with the Yankees, apparently as the Giants deal was being finalized, and told them his son would sign in the Bronx if they’d offer $17M per over seven years.

Which is slightly less than what the Giants already had on the table, by the way.

The Yankees, who were never involved in the Zito chase, declined again, according to the report.

Interesting, if true. Interesting that the reported contact wasn’t from agent Scott Boras, who always drives his clients to the highest bidder, often successfully and occasionally not. (A-Rod, meet Texas!)

Very interesting–and if I’m with the Giants, it’d be the first sign of potential weirdness.

I’m not saying that Zito isn’t 126-percent committed to the Giants, now that he is wildly rich thanks to this deal.

I’m not saying he won’t take his 35 starts, toss his usual 220 innings, help out Matt Cain and Noah Lowry, attract tens of thousands of fans to AT&T Park, and maybe get that ERA down to 3.40 now that he’s in a bigger ballpark and a weaker league.

Hey, Zito could get off to a blazing start, Cain and Lowry and even Matt Morris could ride on that momentum, and the Giants could be looking at a run-away victory in the NL West.

Zito the hero. Zito the Giants savior. Zito, never regretting the chance to pitch in New York. Zito, King of San Francisco. I could see that happening. Possibly.

But…

* Zito’s used to winning with the A’s.

* He’s used to a happy-go-lucky clubhouse.

* He’s wants to keep winning, which is more fun and which will definitely help his Hall of Fame candidacy. (He’s about 30 to 35 percent of the way to a solid HOF argument.)

* In the past, Zito always sounded intrigued about playing in New York, where the two teams are already built to win and score tons of runs.

* Unless the Other Barry has another ultra-rejuvenation season (just like in 2001, oops, maybe not just like in 2001), the Giant offense won’t be like the Mets or Yankees. Won’t be close.

* Unless there are things Ray Durham, Dave Roberts, Ryan Klesko, Rich Aurilia and Other Barry can do defensively that I haven’t seen lately, Zito will have a much worse defense playing behind him than he did in Oakland.

* Batters put the ball in play against Zito, more and more lately as his fastball has lost some steam. He needs great defense and he could use early scoring from his offense.

* He’s compared to Greg Maddux, who rang up his most dominant seasons from ages 28 to 32, but Maddux’s pre-28 seasons where much better than Zito’s. (Of course, Maddux’s were much better than almost everybody’s.)

Just tossing it out there… Maddux’s year-by-year WHIP (walks + hits/innings pitched) from 1992-1995, starting when he was 26:

1.01, 1.05, 0.89, 0.81. (1.03 in 1996, 0.90 in 1997).

Zito’s year-by-year WHIP from 2003-2006, starting when he was 25:

1.18, 1.39, 1.20, 1.40.

* Zito’s most favorable comparable is Tom Glavine, another non-power lefty, who had some shaky WHIP numbers in his prime but kept on winning–on very good Atlanta teams.

-Glavine WHIP from 1992-1996, starting when Glavine was 26:

1.19, 1.36, 1.47, 1.25, 1.30.

-Glavine win totals from 1992-1996:

20, 22, 13, 16, 15.

Will Zito get 1990s-Braves-style support from the 2007 Giants? Pretty unlikely.

Was Zito’s heart set on New York during the free agent process? Maybe, maybe not. But there were good reasons for him to believe that was the best place to land…

If the money was right. Turns out, it wasn’t. That’s not his fault. It’s to the Giants’ credit, if they can make it work.

But if they can’t… and if they can’t surround Zito with contending talent… how soon will it take for Zito and his dad to wonder again about NYC?

Heh, you’re stooping pretty low Tim, using the New York Daily News as your source. When’s the last time they ever reported any rumors based on fact? You’re stuck in the vortex of negativity. Will you ever climb out?

Don Newson

Tim,
How about writing for some other city’s rag. You’ve obviously got an angst against the locals, and your constant negativity is a real drag.

kimo

Tim,

The more I read of you, the more I dislike every word you write. I am sure you self justify the constant negativity in your editorials with inner thoughts of “I am a realist, not a pessimist”. Well guess what Tim, the bay area is generally a place full of people searching for happiness and a good state of mind. Your writing simply does not fit into this mentality. I think you need to go work for a newspaper in Philadelphia…maybe they will appreciate what you bring to the table.

John

Did you ever notice that Tim ALWAYS writes his articles and blogs so that he can claim he was “right” no matter which way a situation unfolds? If Zito fails he can say he called it. If he succeeds he can somehow point to one sentence and say “I was both right and wrong”. What a clown. The only problem is we are all on to you now. Pick a side and stick to it … or decide to run for office.

Brian

I think you make a legit arguement, Tim: Zito will be good for us, but he probably won’t be the savior and probably won’t be statistically worth $18 mil per. I think it’s clear to everyone that this signing was partly out of PR desperation. If we would have signed Lee, Soriano or even Matthews, do you think we would have shelled out all that dough for Zito? No F-ing way. We might have pursued him, but not like this. We got him because Sabean and McGowan thought they would be hung and executed from the Willy Mays statue if they didn’t get a big name. They wanted and we needed a power hitting outfielder much more, but all we could get was a frontline starter. Overall, though we should be happy that we got Zito, Tim’s right in that we overpaid. I don’t know how anyone can argue against that fact. I think if we really looked at this rationally, we would see Tim’s point of view isn’t that far off from ours as loyal fans (even if he can be a miserable prick from time to time). Keep it up Tim. GO GIANTS!

will

Layoff Tim . . . he is gonna be proven right when Zito ends up with a 4.10 ERA next year and wins 14 games . . . good but not great . . .

John

will Says:
December 29th, 2006 at 11:41 am
Layoff Tim . . . he is gonna be proven right when Zito ends up with a 4.10 ERA next year and wins 14 games . . . good but not great . . .

Of course Tim is going to be proven right. That is why he wrote one blog saying Zito would not sign with the Giants because they weren’t good enough for him and then another blog saying Zito is overpaid and not good enough for the Giants. BTW, I think the weather is going to be fantastic on New Years Eve. But then again it may be crappy. But don’t forget, I told you so!

Merriam Webster

Tim’s fence straddling skills are almost super human! Every article, blog, shopping list, IRS form…whatever he puts a pen to, is written with built-in loopholes so he can never be completely wrong about any given topic. At least guys like Bayless (Tim’s contrarian role model) took definitive stands on issues even if they were stirring controversy for controversy’s sake. He wasn’t always like this, I used to really like his columns. His predictability is starting to make his work boring to read. What the hell happened?

Mike

What ambiguity!!! Tim… have YOU ever had thoughts about going to New York?

that san jose guy

You’re begging the wrong question again, Tim… Zito didn’t want to be in NY or he’d have signed with them already. He won’t regret leaving Oakland.

The Giants will once again be in the division hunt, as none of those teams are going to win 90 games. And Zito will likely win 18+ games, given the lack of talent in the NL.

The contract amount is a NON-ISSUE. I repeat, IT DOES NOT MATTER.

that san jose guy

BTW, for those who think Tim is ‘negative’, you have no idea what it’s like on a daily basis in Boston. Dan Shaughnessy (aka “Shank”, aka “The Curly Haired Boyfriend”) regularly craps on Boston teams and now has websites devoted to picking his columns apart. On talk radio, they spend hours dissecting him. He can’t go out in public w/o being booed. Tim’s job is a walk in the park.

Giant Fan

Tim,

Not many comments today-must be losing your touch. Keep up the good work

Kurt

SF Giants Brass is enamored with Zito eating innings and not getting hurt. Sounds like Livian Hernandez, but we need consistent wins out of Zito, that Livian, mostly could not provide.

Yes he does have Cy Young but statistics and numbers don’t lie. His WHIP is rising, and walks are the key indicator moving up. In big games/Yankees-Sox, the walks are higher and they hit him like punching bag. Fastball MPH is down, not as much variance in speed to other pitches allows hitters to not get as much out of balance. Pitchers with higher speed fastballs have less chance of tailoff, because their is more pitch speed variance.

Based on 2006, Giants team speed, and defense will not match A’s, offense might be a wash, A’s offense was weak for first 2/3 of season. Tim’s points in these areas are valid. There is likely higher chance of “less than” expected performance by Zito, than being delighted.

Barry

A source in MLB confirmed the contact between Zito’s Dad and the Yankees.

This comment is simply pathetic..

“the bay area is generally a place full of people searching for happiness and a good state of mind. Your writing simply does not fit into this mentality”

Written by someone with his head buried firmly in the sand

Leonard

Brian says WE paid too much for Zito. Hello Brian, YOU didn’t pay anything for Zito. The price for Zito may be high or even too high, but what he will bring to the Giants pitching staff is some leadership which has been missing for a long time and perhaps he can shame Morris into pitching better. The young Giant pitchers need a role model and who better than Zito. If these things occur then he will have been worth the money.

As far as Tim’s article is concerned, I find him riding both sides of the fence and would prefere he pick a position and live with the consequences of his choice.

The Giants will be better than last year and I predict they will win at least 90 games. Is that enough to win the NL West? Who knows, it seems to me that none of the teams in the NL West are any better than than Giants. So why not?

larry

Tim, Let’s run through your blog point by point:

* Zito’s used to winning with the A’s… He’s wants to keep winning, which is more fun and which will definitely help his Hall of Fame candidacy.

In the last 4 seasons, the A’s won an avg of 6.5 games more per year than the Giants, that’s not a whole lot especially with Zito himself on the other side.

* He’s used to a happy-go-lucky clubhouse.

Ya and we all know the Yankees are a happy-go-lucky clubhouse (see Giambi), or playing anywhere in NY is fun (more reporters like you).

* In the past, Zito always sounded intrigued about playing in New York, where the two teams are already built to win and score tons of runs… Unless the Other Barry has another ultra-rejuvenation season (just like in 2001, oops, maybe not just like in 2001), the Giant offense won’t be like the Mets or Yankees. Won’t be close.

You said it yourself, he’s use to a happy-go-lucky clubhouse.
Yes the Yanks have better offensive stats (but it’s not a fun place to be)… And the Mets batting avg is 6 points higher than the Giants (.264 vs .259).
What you fail to mention is the Giants play in a pitcher friendly park, which helps explain the weaker offensive stats, but should also show Zito the possiblities of pitching in a ballpark such as this…

* Unless there are things Ray Durham, Dave Roberts, Ryan Klesko, Rich Aurilia and Other Barry can do defensively that I haven’t seen lately, Zito will have a much worse defense playing behind him than he did in Oakland… Batters put the ball in play against Zito, more and more lately as his fastball has lost some steam. He needs great defense and he could use early scoring from his offense.

* He’s compared to Greg Maddux, who rang up his most dominant seasons from ages 28 to 32, but Maddux’s pre-28 seasons where much better than Zito’s.

Maddux’s were much better than almost everybody’s.- T. Kawakami

* Zito’s most favorable comparable is Tom Glavine, another non-power lefty, who had some shaky WHIP numbers in his prime but kept on winning–on very good Atlanta teams.

Zito’s year-by-year WHIP from 2004-2006, starting when he was 26:

1.39, 1.20, 1.40.

Glavine WHIP from 1992-1996, starting when Glavine was 26:

1.19, 1.36, 1.47.

(your stats, but comparing apples to apples). Zito’s stats look better that Glavine’s in that time frame.

So the bottom line is your arguements have lots of holes. The Giants needed to get Zito, because they lost Schmidt. He’s more durable than Schmidt. They needed to spend this amount because the Rangers were right there even with a lower offer due to Texas tax laws (see Carlos Lee).

Let’s wait and see how Zito does on the field.

RB

Larry…well said.

Tim,
You’re garbage. Go to New York or LA to write. The Bay Area doesn’t need you.

Mike

Tim,

You’re right. Zito is used to winning which proves that he signed with the Giants for money reasons as opposed to a world series opportunity. If Zito wanted a world series ring bad enough he could have signed with St. Louis, Boston, either NY team, even San Diego would have been a better choice for winning. Why did he not stay with Oakland if he was more interested in winning? Simply put, the Giants are not going to win anything for the unforseen future. Plus, the players of today usually sign with teams that have a chance to win in addition to mega contracts. After the Giants go 75 – 87 next year, what big name will want to play for SF?

Randy Bell

I too was surprised that Zito did not sign for the Mets, but I was also surprised the Mets did not offer more. Look at the Mets’ rotation, their pitching is awful {read, ‘non-existent’}. A team can have all the offense in the world but without pitching is not going to win. If the Mets don’t get another marquis pitcher, and if Pedro Martinez is out most of the year, can they win with only El Duke and Tom Glavine {two 40-yr-olds}? I don’t think the Mets are going to repeat last year’s success with such {lack of} pitching.

FDA

Randy,

How do you know that the Mets offered so much less? Everybody makes these assumptions, or listens to rumors spawned by the NY media machine (even our local columnists squawk like parrots repeating the same drivel).

I just ask for evidence. Quoting ‘sources’ didn’t work for me on the Iraq fiasco, and it won’t work for me in any supposed ‘sports’ story. Show me the journalistic credibility.

Have a nice day.

Randy Bell

Hi FDA,

I just saw your response. Yes you are right, I am assuming the media report was accurate – I was going on the info I read on FoxSports, etc – that the Mets only offered around ~75M over a five-year contract. I read that the Mets did not want to offer a longer term contract. Yahoo Sports and others reported the same.