Posts filed under ‘odd appraisal in trading’

If you want to know what is needed to turn you into the trader or investor you want to be, listen well and read the following documentation.

At times, we play a high probability game, where we let people bet on a draw of marbles from a bag. In a bag of 20 marbles and we put marble back after the draw, keeping the same ratio:

13 green marbles that win.

7 red marbles that lose.

Thus, you have a high chance of winning; however, watch the video or read on to experience what happened in reality.

The shocking results:

Starting out with a paper money account, after 20 games, 60% of the people had less money than they started out with; 30% in average even went broke.

Statistically, how many people should have made more money than they started out with?

To answer this, we rely on the Bernoulli-Experiment, which gives us after 20 draws an expectation that 87.8% of the participants, using a 65%-probability to win, should have made more money than they started out with.

Why did this not happen?

Making money requires risk management (appropriate risk per trade), money management (position sizing) and more. If you do not have those skills in your repertoire, you most probably end up not having a chance to produce the returns that you expect.

However, the financial markets do not offer you easy and equal opportunities. The pros are prepared to take your money.

When you trade or invest, the ones who accept your trade are prepared to win; minimizing your chances for positive results. Institutions dominate the game and when you want to enter into a professional business, you better be prepared.

This is where we can help you to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be.

We provide you with high probability trading systems: ≥65% likelihood to project strong directional price moves, with the required training and coaching to let you act as mechanical as possible, playing par-to-par with the pros, with the odds in your favor.

Let us pull up a chart and see if you would be able to follow those signals:

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures, February 2, 2018, 20-Minute Chart

One of our key slogans is: Let the chart tell when to buy or sell!

Do you use a system and does it provide you with the same (clear cut entries, exits, and stops)?

When you learn to trade and invest the NeverLossTrading way, you get this:

Follow high probability trade setups to the up and downside, with pre-defined entries, exits, and stops or price adjustment levels.

Learn one-on-one at your best available days and times.

Apply a business plan for trading success:

Financial plan: Expected return based on the number of trades or investments per time-unit.

Action plan: How to prepare for your trades to conveniently even act when conditions are met; without the need of being in front of your computer at entry or exit.

Getting all signals, scanners and more installed into a free real-time database.

However, the system alone does not necessarily get you to where you want to be, and this is where we help you, with one-on-one training and coaching.

We hope you see now that many gears have to cut into each other to give you the chance to take money from the financial market’s long-term.

In a short summary: Answer for yourself if you already have everything in place, starting with a high probability trading system: Probability to predict future price moves with a higher than 65% likelihood, considering the following:

Overview of what it takes to be a Trader or Investor

Now that you see what it takes, the question is: Are you able to create this on your own or do you rather trust into a primer education provider (we are in business since 2008), who can help you to shorten your fairway to success: It took us more than 10,000 hours and more than 30 years of experience in putting it all together.

In case you do rather want to buy and hold positions, we can help you too. Take a look at the following chart:

AMZN NeverLossTrading Long-Term Investor Chart June 2015 to February 2018

If you like to learn how to act on clearly spelled out directional price move opportunities, take our offer and experience how our systems work live. Get a free demonstration:

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As we begin a new year, many are planning their next trading moves. Join us on January 24, 2018, to hear what six different market commentators have to say regarding current trade ideas, strategies and the most profitable ways to make money in today’s market environment.

During his presentation, Dan will talk about the use of a unique, short-term option contract, which traders can use to precisely control risk and find opportunity without ever being stopped out again. Using Nadex Spread contracts on indices, commodities, currencies and even Bitcoin, traders can take both directional and direction neutral trades to take advantage of all market conditions.

12:45 to 1:30 PM CT—Rande Howell of Traders State of Mind with “Forging a Disciplined, Patient Mind for Dealing with the Uncertainties of Trading”

Many traders come from a technical background where they were highly effective. Out of that experience grew a confidence in their abilities that they brought to trading. And that’s where the trouble began. Though they kept trying, the old skills simply didn’t work anymore. Rande will discuss what it takes for traders to move their old skill sets into the new skills needed for success in managing the uncertainty of trading.

In his presentation, Thomas will talk about how to operate with a system that lets you find trading opportunities by spelling out clear-cut conditions for trade entry, exit and stops. He will discuss how to employ these strategies during multiple time frames as a day trader, swing trader or long-term investor.

Matt will give a detailed look into how he has uncovered the rhythms of the futures market and turned that into a high probability order entry day trading plan complete with dynamic targets, trails and stops. Included in his presentation will be an explanation of short and intermediate term market cycles and an introduction to confluence techniques to identify support and resistance.

Margin calls happen to the best of them, but there are often ways to alleviate margin deficits without adding money to the account or liquidating positions. Carley will discuss the nature of margin and margin calls while offering detailed strategies of using long and short calls and puts to reduce the margin in a trading account. Her presentation will cover what margin is, who sets it, why it is necessary and other topics.

Frank will discuss how to identify and execute high probability swing trades in any market. His presentation will focus on identifying the best reversals, how to negotiate your entry at the ideal trade location, and how to forecast precision targets based on the volatility of the instrument you are trading. These concepts and techniques can be applied in any timeframe and any market you choose to engage.

***Incredibly, there is no registration fee to attend this event. But, our space on the webinar is limited to 1,000 people. Since we can’t go over that limit, please be sure to register early and enter the room 15 minutes before the scheduled time (12:00 pm Central Time [1:00 pm Eastern] on January 24, 2018).***

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Is fundamental analysis the basis of your decision making? Are you in the position to outsmart the world’s best analysts, working for companies like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan (just to name a few)? Let us be casual, you are most likely not!

As a result, technical analysis is the logical choice.

At this point, we immediately want to bridge over:

Imagine, one of this big institutional investment firms starts an action to collect or distribute an asset. In this case, other asset holders and market participants will recognize the action and either trade with or against what they notice. If you had an indication on hand, that such situation is there, you would be in the position to observe if specific price thresholds are surpassed to trade with a developing directional price move.

This is exactly what we do with the NeverLossTrading concepts. We do not squeeze the real market action into a mathematical formula like moving averages; we measure the action of now and formulate resulting price moves for all asset classes and time-frames and only act:

When the directional price move is confirmed.

When the odds are in our favor.

At pre-formulated entry-, exit, and stop levels.

With a plan-B, in case the trade goes wrong.

For a pre-formulated maximum time period.

With such system on hand, your chart is telling you, where the momentum and the trend are going and you can act by our key slogan:

Trade What You See! Let the chart tell when to buy or sell.

Chart-1: AAPL Weekly NLT Trend Catching Chart July/August 2017

Chart-1 shows a long-setup at the candle that closed on July 21, 2017 with the following components:

Buy>$151.74, if next week’s price development surpasses this threshold.

Stop or trade repair (plan-B), if the price drops to $147.20.

Exit at target of $157.07 or after three bars (in the example: three weeks).

Prior to a price change, we measure the underlying change in supply and demand and from there:

We extrapolate a price point to enter into a directional trade (buy-stop or sell-stop order).

Our system pre-formulates the exit point: target.

In addition, a stop or trade adjustment level is pre-formulated at entry.

Bringing those components together, we focus on high probability trading with attainment rates >65%, together with the imperative to apply a time-based exit: closing the trade if the expected price target is not reached after 3-bars.

You might say: That sounds like tape-reading and in a way, it is; however, with the most advanced algorithms, real-time data, server technology and vector graphics. A single person could never replicate what our computers can do.

Even so, we specify trading as mechanical as possible; we value the human element:

By teaching you pattern recognition and quick observation of key supply and demand levels on the chart.

By always trading with a plan-B, allowing you to repair trades instead of taking a stop-loss.

Thus, you are applying algorithmic trading with human interaction: a strong combination.

By teaching one-on-one and by providing longer-term coaching, we focus on your individual wants and needs; helping you to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be.

Chart-2: AAPL 30-Minute NLT Top-Line Chart August 14 – 17, 2017

Chart-2 shows, how to trade short-term price developments with a two-tier target setting (the system works the same way for longer-term trades). Aside from placing the stop at the base of the red-line at entry, you can also trail your stop by following the red line, participating in the price-move from the beginning to the end.

To keep this short: If you like to trade long-term or short-term price moves, we can provide you with the system and algorithm that supports your trading style.

We tune our systems, training time and coaching, to fit your individual wants and needs; helping you to turn yourself into the trader or investor, you want to be.

We offer several systems and always teach one-on-one. We are in business since 2008 and dedicate our knowledge, passion and time to those we commit to. If you like to be one of the NeverLossTraders, call us or schedule an individual demonstration at:

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Trading is a numbers game; hence, we recommend for you to calculate in advance the implications of your doing:

Why to risk $525 to make $100? (We will explain this in more detail)

Sounds logic; however, most traders focus on making $100 regardless of the risk to accept.

Recently, I participated in a day trading system introduction with the following setup:

Risk 8-ticks to produce 2-ticks of income.

Reasoning: Operate in a volatility range and harvest on small intra-volatility moves.

The trading room was filled with about 200 people, subscribing and applying to this trading strategy on a daily basis.

Let us do a quick check on the odds of the basic setup: The breakeven point is at a 4:1 win/loss ratio, requiring you to win with a > 80% predictability to produce a zero?

The trade entry was based on Bollinger Bands, RSI and a MACD. By our statistics, those indicators have a 53% to 55% predictability; which in itself shows the challenge to trade at an above 80% attainment rate.

Some indicator based systems claim: overlaying multiple 53% probability indicators a higher precision can be achieved: Mathematically this is not the fact; however, let us assume it is true and the system produces in average five winners on one losing trade what will be the financial expectation considering some of the futures that were traded:

/ES: E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

/ZB: 30-Year Bond Futures

/6E: Euro Futures

Expected Return on Winning Five out of Six Trades, Risking 8-Ticks for a 2-Tick Gain

The above table shows that only one out of three symbols has a positive expectation: the /ZB and this on a predictability of the price move of 83%. In the last two columns, we show the average expected price move per day of the referring trading instruments and the amount of precision needed to predict those on such a small scale of 2-ticks.

What is this telling you?

Consider and calculate the implications of your system by a feasibility study, telling you the likelihood that you get where you want to be as a trader or investor.

When you learn trading with us, we put an end to this: We introduce you to systems that have a ≥ 65% predictability and you only trade with the odds in your favor and you adjust your position size based on the odds evaluation of each trade setup.

In addition, you will learn to follow a business plan for trading success:

Financial plan (return expectation and risk per setup).

Action plan (what to do, when and how: includes a trade adjustment strategy).

Overview Table of an Odds Appraised Position Sizing Model

The above table tells you: By your system defined entry, exit, and stop, the odds are in your favor and you bets invest into 0.50-Lot for staying in your system described risk agreement.

If you like to see how a fully integrated trading concept helps you to appraise each trade situation right from the chart, with clear cut entries, exits, and stops, register for our upcoming free webinar:

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Some traders or investors like the excitement of the markets and treat trading as a hobby.

Yes, trading the financial markets: stocks, options, futures, FOREX gives great entertainment; however, if you are seeking trading success, you should watch our 14-minute video, which explains the difficulties and concepts, how to transform yourself into the trader or investor, you want to be!

Video Link expired.

If you are not yet signed up to our FREE Trading Tips, Webinars, Reports…sign up here.

If you like what you see in our video and you are ready to experience how our systems perform live:

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The success principles of trading can be compared to professional sports: Success comes from skill and practice.

When stepping onto the plate, I am prepared to swing, wait for the right moment and trade.

On each opportunity, I am prepared to make short-term good profits, administering tight stops, and when the market allows, I am aiming for the fences.

Bring the odds on your favor; take hits in accordance to defined system entries.

Fill the bases: Scale in and out of positions to capitalize on home run possibilities.

Accept losses as part of trading, knowing the next trade will come from your system.

Concentrate on what you are doing without distraction.

If you have all this already in place, there is no need to read further; however, if you want to improve your trading and investing skills to let the markets pay you, read on.

NeverLossTrading developed systems that help you to spot and follow institutional money moves. Our in-house developed algorithms help traders to decide right from the chart. All our indicators are based on the natural happening of supply and demand. We offer you fractal based models that work for all time frames and all asset classes: Stocks, options, futures, FOREX.

With more than 30 years of experience, we are in the education business since 2008; focused on your wants and needs, teaching and coaching one-on-one at your best available days and times.

Our mentorships start with TradeColors.com (our introductory system), where two-same-color candles define a trade setup (highlighted in orange boxes) and you only trade if the high of a blue-candle-sequence or the low of a red-candle-sequence is surpassed by the next candle.

FB 2-Hour TradeColors.com Chart

The chart shows you three confirmed trade situations that all lead to a positive outcome when you followed the entry- and exit rules with teach in a four hour one-on-one mentorship.

Surely, we also support you by handing you a detailed tutorial, which explains the indicators, trade setups and various trade strategies. Each of your teaching sessions will be recorded, so you can repeat the learned until it sits and you can swing when the chart gives you the right trade situations. Focusing on you to learn how to trade, we install all software and chart setups for you on a free trading platform that provides you real-time data access with no annual fees; allowing you to trade what you see by keeping your broker relationship without additional costs.

If this strikes your interest, we are happy to invite you to a personal demonstration:

Adding more indicators and the convenience to read the desired price threshold right off the chart, NLT Top-Line offers a 20-hour mentorship, own scanners, watch list indicators and a lot more. This is what you see on the chart:

E-Mini Dow Futures 2-Hour NLT Top-Line Chart, December 1-5, 2016

The chart above highlighted the most actual trade situations, capturing major price turning points by spelling out price thresholds: Buy>$19,170 for example. This way, you can operate with buy-stop orders and you only enter a trade when the set price threshold is surpassed in the price development of the next candle.

Your trading career as a full-time or part-time trader has to be prepared: Those who fail to prepare, prepare to fail. We published in a short book: “Your Trading Career as a Private Investor” key action steps, you might want to consider: A less than $3 investment that can help you a lot.

In each of our mentorships, we help you to define a business plan for your trading success, which includes a financial plan (what to expect) and an action plan (what to do, how, and when).

To assure the learned sticks with you, you can send us your trades for feedback.