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12/26/15

And we make it to the end of another year. Other places do look-back reviews of their fave or most popular posts in the year, but as IKN is ashamed of what it publishes* we instead review the music and videos, specifically the Friday OT segment to see which slots of tunes were the most popular, in direct hit terms.

And here are the top five, all of which can be accessed by clicking on the names:

That Jimmy Page semi-interview-semi song was a fave with many of you, not least reader and friend AB who waxed lyrical in a mail way back in January when it came out. Then "Messi is a dog", Spanish with English subtitles, is the only non-music video to make the top five list. It's also wonderful and just the thing for any non-football fan who wonders what all the fuss is about.

Third place comes Paco de Lucia playing a buleria from heaven, the chemistry between him and the cajón player is a marvel, too. Then the runner up is Miss Philippi....ah no, the runner up is the OT from just a couple of weeks ago, Tom Waits hitting your festive chords.

And the winner, the most popular Friday OT of the year, is richly deserved. My own personal musical discovery of the year (but only because I'm slow, he's been around for at least 15 years), I've never heard anything quite like the amazing and deeply beautiful music of Jon Hopkins.

12/24/15

Christmas is that special time of year when miracles can really happen, the mean-spirited become generous, good will comes to those of true faith and legends abound of animals, such as reindeer and dogs, that can suddenly fly and soar without any apparent means of support.

Completely unconnected to all that, here's the ten day chart of McEwen Mining (MUX):

"The prosaic truth is that this is just another of the nasty regimes
that persist in parts of the world. Eritrea is a one-party state with
no elections, has had no functioning civil society since 2001 and, with
at least 16 journalists currently behind bars, is ranked bottom of 180
countries assessed in Reporters Without Borders’ press freedom index.
The regime sows paranoia and uncertainty, leading to divergent views
over how far the limits of free speech can be tested.

"A recent UN inquiry on human rights
described extrajudicial killings, torture, arbitrary detentions,
enforced disappearances, indefinite military conscription and forced
labour. Its report found “a pervasive control system used in absolute
arbitrariness to keep the population in a state of permanent anxiety”."

12/23/15

1) Here's what Louis Lobito Little Wolf James, fake geologist and chief rock kicker at Casey Research, said about Banks Island Gold (BOZ.v) in 2014 when he pumped the merry bejeez out of it and got people in at 50c (and here's an extract line or two):

"I want to remind readers that both Doug Casey and I own shares
in Banks. Personally, it remains my largest position."

"...I'm reiterating my renewed Buy recommendation. Whatever happens in the
near term, these shares are a great buy, whether for a first tranche or a
second. I intend to buy more myself—after giving you a chance to do so first."

"Seriously. I mean, seriously, how can anyone in their right mind like a
company with a balance sheet like this? Let alone somebody as dangerous
to other people as Lobito who recommends it to other people. Especially
when those people are a bunch of naive sheeplike followers who require a
little expertise in the sector, not tripledumb investment advice?"

"I knew Louis James was stupid about geology. I didn't realize how stupid
he was about financials. The above is just plain embarrassing, it's
amateur hour level."

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Dec 23, 2015) -
Banks Island Gold Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:BOZ) (the "Company") announces that
the Company has canceled the equity financing announced by news release
on December 1, 2015. The Company did not receive sufficient interest to
be able to close the $3M minimum financing required to support its
operations over the coming months.

As
a result, the Company has insufficient funds to maintain operations and
has received notice of claims from three significant trade creditors
for payment of outstanding debt. The mining reclamation bond posted by
the Company with the Ministry of Energy and Mines has been confiscated
by the Ministry. The Company has provided notice of termination to all
of its remaining employees effective December 31, 2015. The Board of the
company is currently comprised of Ben Mossman, Jason Nickel, John
Anderson and Frederick Sveinson.

The
Company is consulting with its legal advisors, and will provide a
further update on the Company's status in the coming weeks.

Contrary to rumours that did the rounds in Lima a few weeks ago, yesterday Rio Tinto (RTZ) announced today Gestión revealed that RTZ was renewing its concession for the big La Granja copper project in Cajamarca Peru for another eight years and plans to re-boot its exploration and development of the project in 2016. Here's a photo of the dead wood version of Peru's biz paper Gestión with the news:

On December 29th 2014 we ran our annual "Ten random predictions" post for the year ahead. As we're now all done bar the shouting, it's time to check out how we got on in this edition. Here below come
the original calls, the result and the usual polemic slant on
scoring for the year (1, 0.5 or zip nada zero per item), And by way of reminder...

In 2013 we scored 5.5/10

In 2014 we scored 6/10

...so let's see if the improvement continues. First (in small script) you get the prediction as it appeared on December 29th 2014. Then you get the result and a line or three of views'n'news, so starting at the beginning with forecast number one...

1) Gold to trend up gradually, with a rough U$1,400/oz target for
some time at the end of the year. For sure with the normal wobbly stuff
along the way and I wouldn't bat an eyelid to see it go under
U$1,100/oz again at some point or other, but talk of its utter demise
(South of 1k) strikes this author as plain silly talk from people who
don't get the sector.

Score: 0.5. For sure the $1,400/oz bit was out, but the low end prediction was pretty darned accurate, as we saw the $1.1k breached and $1k hasn't been threatened. So I'll rescue half points on this one.

2) The gold/silver ratio to stay high, by
which we mean 1/70 or above. It can spike down briefly under that along
the way, but I don't expect it to trend down meaningfully. When they
call silver "the poor man's gold", the real message is "the choice that
poor people make". Semi-on-topic, I'd definitely hold gold miner stocks
over silver miner stocks this year.

Score: 1 point. This one couldn't have been closer to the mark, as a) the GSR stayed high all year and only once spiked under 70X and then only for one day.

3) Uranium will go nowhere again. We're
in the high $30s today, it could fluctuate up into a 4-handle, down
through to the 2s, but the prediction is to watch it flatline in general
terms. Uranium's going the way of the buggy whip, the world has moved
on from the fallacy of "near limitless/near free energy" and knows how
expensive these things are to decom, the type of cost that's built into
projections by serious countries (China an obvious exception to that
category).

Score: 1 point. It didn't see a 2-handle, it saw a 4-handle very briefly, but for the vast majority of the year it simply languished in the mid-$30s per pound, not going anywhere and getting no love.

4) Barrick (ABX) will merge with Newmont (NEM).
It's long past fusion date for these two. The sooner the outsized
self-important egos on both boards start caring less about themselves
and more about their shareholders, the better.

Score: Zero points. This was my left-field biz call and it would have been an eye-opener if it had happened, but the turgid state of the mining sector put paid to the idea quickly and nobody's even breathed about the idea for at least six months. Nada here, move on.

5) Copper to maintain around U$3/lb average for 2014. This
is perhaps the toughest and most important commod market to call in the
year ahead. Also (and to push my luck on the prediction) it wouldn't
surprise me in the least to see Cu weak in the first part of the year,
trending higher in the second part. If it exits between $3.10/lb and
$3.20/lb I'd be a happy long.

Score: Zero points. On this one I'm happy to say I saw the reality early and stepped away from major copper stock exposure, but back in December 2014 I was way too optimistic about the world and frankly, 12 months on, the call looks plain silly. And that's not a bad thing, keeps the ego in check.

6) Venezuela's government to be bailed out by China. It's
no secret that Venezuela's finances are under severe pressure due to
the drop in oil prices, but it's not going to lead to a fall in the
government in 2015 (sorry haters, it's the way it is). China wants crude
oil and has dollars, Venezuela wants dollars and has crude oil, the two
countries get along just fine, the synergies are obvious. The question
is how much Venezuela will have to cede for the bailout.

Score: 0.5 points. Indeed Venezuela was tipped for economic death this time last year by the chatter-o-sphere and indeed one of the things it did was get a big bung from China (rumoured to be around U$7Bn) in March which helped them pay the bills. But I'm only going to award myself half marks on this one because even I agree that the political situation in Venezuela is now looking unstable and the Maduro government is under real pressure from all sides. How 2016 will go for the country is anyone's guess, but there comes a time when the right wing boys who cry wolf are going to be right. It could be next year.

7)
It's a difficult call this early in the process, but I'm contractually
obliged to make a call on the Argentina presidential election so the forecast is for Daniel Scioli to be the next President of Argentina.
Main opponent is Massa, in with a squeak is Macri, outsider Randazzo,
the rest are just noise. But it's still a very fluid situation so this
one is only tentative. For the record, the Argentina vote slated for
October is the biggest single political event in LatAm this year and
arguably the most important one in terms of regional repercussion
potential for the last five or even ten. It's going to be big, noisy and
full of FpV/CFK-hate in your English language press (who'll be rooting
for Massa and/or Macri).

Score: Zero points. The shock political result of the year, Mauricio Macri came from a losing position in August, ran a strong campaign (while Scioli's was weak and lacked total support from the hardline Kirchnerists) and came from behind to win in the second round run-off. It's also one I got wrong more than once, because my confidence that Scioli would win it grew as the year went on and I started calling him the very likely winner from August onward. Shows what I know.

8) Argentina to win the Copa America 2015, the
equivalent of the European Championships for the continent, held in
Chile in June/July this year. If that doesn't turn out right, hosts
Chile must be in with a strong chance and I'd place them as clear second
faves today. FWIW it's easy to bet against a Brazil that will need a
couple of years to re-build after its World Cup disaster (no other word
for it).

Score: 0.5 points. Yeah I know Chile won it, but as they beat Argentina in the final and I picked those two as the candidates, albeit in reverse order, (and I nailed the Brazil call) I'm going to award myself half a point. Because it's my blog, bite me.

9) River Plate to win the Copa Libertadores
(for those of you who don't know, that's the LatAm equivalent of the
Champion's League trophy). This is the easiest forecast of the year.
Vamo lo millo.

Score: 1 point. The most wonderful sporting moment of the year, as simple as that.

10) Argentina to beat Ireland in the Quarter Finals stage of the 2015 Rugby World Cup, held in the UK in October. How about that for a specific forecast? (Also, the All Blacks for the cup).

Score: 1 point. I still can't believe I called this exact result correctly ten months before it happened (and reader NA can't believe it either). What you see above is exactly what went down in the Rugby World Cup and to get that result it wasn't just a case of picking the winner in the game, but being able to predict where each team finished in the group stage so they'd meet in the quarter-final. I rule.

GRAND TOTAL: FIVE AND A HALF OUT OF TEN. That's half a point lower than last year, the same as 2013. So call me consistent and on due consideration I may turn IKN into a sportsbook prediction service blog in 2016, as my sporting forecasts are way better than my stockpicks.

At some point next week I'll post the Ten Random Predictions For 2016, so until then I'll leave you to laugh at the thought of ABX and NEM merging.

LIMA, PERU--(Marketwired - Dec. 23, 2015) - Minera IRL Limited ("Minera IRL" or the "Company") (AIM:MIRL) (BVLAC:MIRL) Further to the announcement made by the Company on December 16, 2015 regarding the results of the Company's Extraordinary General Meeting, the Company has been informed that Mr Jorge Luis Ramos Felicies has resigned as a director of the Company with immediate effect. The Company will be considering alternative appointments to the Board in due course.

Or as reader JH put it in a mail this morning, "So a freshly elected director resigns, leaving two of the previous
directors, both with 60% of the recent vote against them as a majority
in the present board."

Let's hope they can accord a suitable replacement soon, eh guys?

PS: Honestly, we all have better things to think about this week than this chunk of news so relax and let the IRL circus flow. Team Hodges thinks it's gained something with this turn of events, IKN's advice is to let those people think exactly what they want to think. In the upside-down world of IRL, good is bad and bad is good. Truth will out in the end, people.

First Otto Pérez Molina of Guatemala and now Ricardo Martinelli of Panama, throwing ex-Presidents of Central American countries into jail for abuses during their office is getting to become a habit this year. A very good habit.

The plenum of the Supreme Court Monday ordered the provisional detention
of former President Ricardo Martinelli in connection with the
investigation into illegal surveillance allegedly carried out during his
administration (2009-2014).continues here

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Dec 22, 2015) - Starcore International Mines Ltd. (SAM.TO)
(the "Company" or "Starcore") confirms that it is not aware of any
reason as to why trading in its common shares has been halted by the
Securities & Exchange Commission. The Company is not a reporting
issuer in the United States and is up-to-date on all its regulatory
filings in Canada. Having issued this clarification, the Company expects
trading to resume on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Does the US SEC make dumbo mistakes and hit wrong buttons? Time will tell.

And that's not a permabull's call either, Gary Tanashian of Biiwii and NFTRH has been calling bear for quite a while but he's suddenly getting hot and sticky about the sector prospects for the year ahead. Here's his note today and here's a chunk to give you interested enough to go over and read it all:

"...in the summer of 2011, it was obvious that the gold sector was not only due for, but in need
of a cleaning. Well folks, that is the good news! We gold bugs have
been deep cleaned, buffed, waxed and are just about ready for prime
time, hopefully much wiser and more humble than before. The bear market
has been a good thing. Period.

I could unleash a chart fest showing gold’s long-term support and
downside risk, individual gold stocks that are already in bull markets
and myriad other things, but I want to keep this article compact and on
message. That message is that a huge proportion of the risk (vs. reward)
in gold is now in the rear view mirror with four solid years of bear
market activity. So we will show some strategic monthly charts instead.

Here's the call section of what Tanya Jakusconek wrote last night on the huevo-en-cara news from YRI last night. She's right, of course:

Recommendation

Management had strongly telegraphed that it believed it could complete a monetization of Brio Gold in a timely manner in order to reduce its debt levels. Without the successful sale, we expect debt levels to remain high relative to the group (2016E net debt/EBITDA is 2.5x vs group avg ~1.6x at $1,100/oz gold price). We expect the shares to be weak tomorrow on the news of the suspension.

I like the understatement in that last sentence. It's a bit like "We expect the next Pope to be a Catholic".

UPDATE: Beggaring belief, YRI actually opened higher on this news! That's either reefer madness or it's a sad indictment of all mining management teams; the market is so used to mediocrity from people running these companies that when one of them (this time our pal Peter) makes a strategically dumb move, it just shrugs its shoulders, mutters "normal" under its breath and carries on regardless.

YAMANA GOLD INC. (YRI.TO)(AUY)
("Yamana" or the "Company") hereby announces that its wholly-owned
subsidiary Brio Gold Inc. ("Brio Gold") has commenced a private
placement of Brio Gold common shares, consisting of a primary offering
by Brio Gold and a secondary offering by Yamana. The implied initial
post-money valuation of Brio Gold based on the private placement is
approximately $369.3 million.

The
primary offering as currently planned will fully fund the near-term
business plan for Brio Gold with the majority of proceeds expected to (continues here)

YAMANA GOLD INC. (YRI.TO)(AUY)
("Yamana" or the "Company") herein announces that in the context of
current market conditions and in consideration of recent positive
operational developments at its wholly-owned subsidiary Brio Gold Inc.
("Brio Gold"), it has decided to suspend efforts relating to the
monetization of Brio Gold. Yamana will continue to hold the Brio Gold
assets within the Yamana portfolio of assets and continues here

We eat turkey for Christmas, Marrone eats crow. Though it must be admitted that this humble corner of cyberspace underestimated its audience, as it turns out you gringos won't buy just anything after all. And I can't remember which of my readers mailed in with the name, but they called it "Brio-X" at the time and we like that.

At its always-important end-year meeting yesterday, attended by most of the population of Ollachea and all its main figures and conducted as always in an open and democratic manner (everyone with a view can speak their mind) the President of the Rural Community, Juan Luis Valeriano was ratified in his post for the next calendar year of 2016.

I've been asked to put this small section of yesterday's weekly on the blog. So here it is.

The new
board shows its reluctance to change matters

We could go round the houses on
this, but to cut to the chase Power of Attorney (POA) was awarded to Jaime
Pinto and (IRL Ltd controller) Carlos Yrigoyen by the old board of directors so
that Pinto (in particular) could act on behalf of the board.

Sidebar: Power of Attorney (3): A written document in which
one person (the principal) appoints another person to act as an agent on his or
her behalf, thus conferring authority on the agent to perform certain acts or
functions on behalf of the principal.

It gives him the power to do what
he wants, when he wants, with the IRL assets. The idea behind the POA was related
to the gaining of control of the subsidiary, Minera IRL SA, because the IRL Ltd
(Team Hodges) people want to transfer all assets out of the subsidiary and into
the mother ship company and from there, they can do what they want with them.

Now that’s fair enough you might
say and if you believe the Team Hodges people they were only going to do that
to clean up the structure and take the assets away from an overly powerful and
quasi-independent subsidiary that was up to no good. However, that argument
suddenly unravels when you realize that the new board of directors has not
revoked the POA to Jaime Pinto. It also gets a different light when you
consider the way Pinto really operates (see below for more on that).

Yes folks, that’s right: Under any
normal change of board, the first thing that would happen is that powerful
legal devices such as POA would be taken away from an outgoing board member
immediately. But in the crazy world of IRL and because of the obstinacy of the
two Team Hodges people left on the board of directors, Jones and Fryer, the
person that you voted out by a tally of 92% to 8%, Jaime Pinto, still has full
control over the assets of Minera IRL Ltd.

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