The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continues to monitor 2 Tropical Cyclones and one area of interest in the Eastern Pacific & Central Pacific basins:

- Hurricane Erick: currently 1,015 miles ESE of Hilo & moving to the west at 17 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (Category 1 Hurricane).

- Tropical Storm Flossie: currently 2,350 miles ESE of Hilo & moving westward at 16 mph. With maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Flossie is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday Night.

- Area of Interest in the East Pacific has 20% chance of formation in the next 5 days, we will continue to monitor this potential disturbance in the coming days.

Based on the latest models reviewed, Hurricane Erick is still expected to past to the south of the Island of Hawaii around Friday morning into Saturday, most models were in an agreement that the center of Erick is expected to past Hawaii Island approximately 45 to 150 miles to the south. Wet Weather Associated with Erick along with breezy conditions is expected to come onshore Thursday night going into Saturday evening.

Tropical Storm Flossie: it's again still too early to determine the exact track of Flossie and it impacts to Hawaii Island, we will have a better idea of the projected forecast around Friday and Saturday at the earliest as it expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin around late Friday night and Early Saturday morning.

Currently, No Watches or Warnings are in effect at this time related to these disturbances.

The next HIRSC Team Update will be made at 11:00 Hours (11:00 am) Tuesday Morning.

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019
Flossie's overall appearance has not changed much over the past
several hours. There continues to be some dry air evident over the
northern semicircle that is entraining into the storm's circulation
and the SHIPS guidance also suggests there is about 10 kt of
northerly shear across the system. This has resulted in most of the
deep convection being confined to the southern semicircle for
much of tonight. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is in
agreement with the latest subjective satellite intensity estimates
from both TAFB and SAB.
The motion over the past 12 hours has been just south of due west,
or 265/15 kt. A turn to the west to west-northwest is expected by
later today or tonight and this general motion is expected to
continue for the remainder of the forecast period as Flossie is
steered by a broad mid-level ridge to its north. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast track is
very close to the previous one.
Recently, deep convection has been trying to wrap around the
northeastern portion of the circulation. If this trend were to
continue, then strengthening would likely resume in the near term.
There is about a 48-hour window remaining for Flossie to
significantly intensify in a fairly favorable environment. The
lastest SHIPS model Rapid Intensification Index (RII) shows a
greater than 50 percent chance for Flossie to intensify by 25 kt
over a 24 hour period. However, Flossie will need to consolidate its
inner core soon if this rapid strengthening is to occur. The
official NHC forecast calls for steady strengthening through much of
today, followed by a 24 hour period of more rapid strengthening that
would make Flossie a category 3 hurricane in 48 hours. After 48
hours, increasing shear and marginal SSTs are expected to cause a
weakening trend to begin. The official intensity forecast is close
to the previous forecast as well as the NOAA corrected consensus,
HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 12.2N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 12.3N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 12.8N 123.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 13.6N 126.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 14.3N 129.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 16.1N 134.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

Area of Interest (Being Watched by the NHC) Update as of 8:00 pm HST July 29th, 2019:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 29 2019
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The National
Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on recently upgraded
Hurricane Erick, which has moved into the central Pacific basin.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred hundred miles
south of Acapulco are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level
winds could become marginally conducive for development late this
week while the system moves quickly westward, away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.