Comparing voter registration numbers and election results by county

The latest voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties are out, and I wanted to do one final update on the registration totals in each county, grouped by Congressional district. Statewide, Republicans had led Democrats in voter registrations since April, but that lead was almost gone by the beginning of November. Late GOTV and election-day registrants helped put Democrats a little ahead again. As of December 3, Iowa had 640,776 active registered Democrats, 636,315 Republicans, and 722,348 no-party voters.

In the tables below, I also added vote totals for President Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, and the major-party Congressional candidates in each county, to show which candidates outpolled or underperformed their party’s presidential nominee. I’m not convinced that Christie Vilsack could have beaten Tom Latham in IA-03, but Leonard Boswell finished noticeably behind the president in this district, especially in Polk County.

Democrat Bruce Braley lagged a little behind President Obama in fifteen counties but exceeded Obama’s vote total in five counties: Black Hawk (where he has lived and worked for decades), Dubuque, Iowa, Jackson, and Poweshiek (where he grew up). Republican Ben Lange outperformed Mitt Romney in only two counties: Buchanan (where he lives and works) and Winneshiek.

County

Democrats

Republicans

no-party voters

votes for Obama

votes for Romney

votes for Braley

votes for Lange

Allamakee

2,236

4,327

3,168

3,553

3,264

3,271

3,226

Benton

4,851

5,136

7,684

6,862

6,940

6,819

6,573

Black Hawk

29,503

20,892

31,879

39,806

26,219

40,749

24,078

Bremer

3,939

5,158

7493

6,763

6,405

6,707

6,170

Buchanan

3,982

3,231

6,579

5,911

4,450

5,413

4,885

Clayton

3,418

3,273

4,789

4,806

4,164

4,769

3,975

Delaware

2,612

3,854

4,889

4,616

4,636

4,418

4,632

Dubuque

25,376

14,989

22,711

28,768

21,280

29,129

19,569

Fayette

3,893

4,204

4,287

5,732

4,492

5,706

4,323

Howard

1,988

1,491

2,661

2,768

1,795

2,505

1,785

Iowa

2,885

3,795

4,918

4,144

4,569

4,182

4,284

Jackson

5,938

2,722

5,687

5,907

4,177

5,935

3,732

Jones

3,633

3,750

5,926

5,534

4,721

5,443

4,539

Linn

50,130

38,707

51,551

68,581

47,622

67,210

45,703

Marshall

7,919

7,951

9,533

10,257

8,472

9,480

8,168

Mitchell

1,859

2,569

2,783

2,831

2,643

2,531

2,540

Poweshiek

3,896

3,757

5,134

5,357

4,424

5,517

3,986

Tama

3,430

3,488

4,489

4,768

4,098

4,710

3,964

Winnishiek

3,679

4,550

5,300

6,256

4,622

5,819

4,646

Worth

1,604

1,823

2,100

2,350

1,744

2,109

1,687

total

166,771

139,667

193,561

225,570

170,737

222,422

162,465

IA-02

Democrat Dave Loebsack lagged a little behind President Obama in sixteen counties but exceeded Obama’s vote total in eight counties that he has represented for the past six years: Appanoose, Cedar, Davis, Lee, Monroe, Van Buren, Washington, and Wayne. Republican John Archer received more votes than Mitt Romney in only two counties, both new to Loebsack’s district: Scott (where Archer lives and works) and Clinton.

County

Democrats

Republicans

no-party voters

votes for Obama

votes for Romney

votes for Loebsack

votes for Archer

Appanoose

2,798

2,971

3,185

2,951

3,161

3,017

2,822

Cedar

3,310

3,720

4,854

4,972

4,529

5,021

4,220

Clarke

1,709

1,839

2,326

2,189

2,124

2,127

1,957

Clinton

11,533

7,441

13,460

15,141

9,432

13,743

9,750

Davis

1,967

1,567

1,485

1,520

2,138

1,851

1,822

Decatur

1,843

1,848

1,966

1,791

1,947

1,758

1,743

Des Moines

11,902

6,259

8,720

11,888

8,136

11,571

7,905

Henry

3,162

5,444

5,070

4,460

5,035

4,282

4,826

Jasper

9,126

7,365

8,020

10,257

8,877

10,043

8,328

Jefferson

3,569

3,626

3,593

4,798

3,436

4,784

3,281

Johnson

40,971

19,456

34,278

50,666

23,698

49,219

22,344

Keokuk

2,379

2,330

2,397

2,303

2,843

2,231

2,614

Lee

10,192

4,424

8,498

10,714

7,785

11,115

7,054

Louisa

1,946

2,520

2,658

2,452

2,420

2,301

2,346

Lucas

1,486

2,118

2,110

1,987

2,254

1,876

2,096

Mahaska

3,243

6,014

5,127

4,213

6,448

3,916

6,249

Marion

5,587

9,151

7,282

7,507

9,828

7,240

9,373

Monroe

1,821

1,541

1,586

1,731

2,026

1,762

1,819

Muscatine

8,032

8,332

10,662

11,323

8,168

10,727

7,994

Scott

36,175

30,621

46,059

50,652

38,251

46,734

38,605

Van Buren

1,095

2,207

1,680

1,402

2,064

1,547

1,864

Wapello

9,661

5,354

7,077

8,663

6,789

8,416

6,377

Washington

3,090

5,833

5,103

5,115

5,562

5,256

5,197

Wayne

1,065

1,408

1,203

1,251

1,583

1,326

1,391

total

177,662

143,389

188,399

219,946

168,534

211,863

161,977

IA-03

Democrat Leonard Boswell finished well behind Obama in all sixteen counties, most disastrously in Polk, which the president carried by more than 32,000 votes. Polk was the sole county Boswell carried, and he only won it by about 4,000 votes. Every county in IA-03 delivered more votes to Republican Tom Latham than to Romney.

County

Democrats

Republicans

no-party voters

votes for Obama

votes for Romney

votes for Boswell

votes for Latham

Adair

1,157

2,023

2,038

1,790

2,114

1,270

2,412

Adams

704

965

1,127

1,028

1,108

805

1,237

Cass

1,692

4,909

3,153

2,858

4,217

2,141

4,512

Dallas

10,727

16,662

17,986

20,988

16,576

12,842

23,033

Fremont

1,339

2,207

19,30

1,637

1,972

1,162

2,151

Guthrie

2,047

2,811

2,884

2,569

3,171

1,915

3,528

Madison

3,064

4,045

3,919

3,630

4,638

2,855

5,029

Mills

1,965

4,814

3,216

2,848

4,216

2,084

4,277

Montgomery

1,104

3,933

2,039

1,922

3,001

1,395

3,196

Page

1,719

4,484

3,688

2,612

4,348

2,172

4,477

Polk

106,424

83,732

82,405

128,465

96,096

109,508

105,234

Pottawattamie

16,604

21,270

18,962

19,644

21,860

15,815

22,384

Ringgold

915

1,467

747

1,186

1,368

1,037

1,421

Taylor

850

2,011

1,389

1,262

1,683

1,008

1,785

Union

1,854

2,881

3,071

3,043

2,813

2,422

3,157

Warren

10,059

10,739

10,897

12,551

13,052

10,201

14,167

total

162,224

168,953

159,510

203,621

186,645

168,632

202,000

IA-04

Democrat Christie Vilsack only carried seven of the 39 counties in this district, but she came close to matching Obama’s vote totals in 27 counties and outpolled the president in twelve counties: Butler, Cerro Gordo, Emmet, Floyd, Franklin, Hancock, Humboldt, Kossuth, Pocahontas, Shelby, Sioux, and Winnebago. King lagged a bit behind Romney in 28 counties but exceeded the GOP nominee’s vote totals in nine counties: Carroll, Cherokee, Crawford, Ida, Monona, Osceola, Plymouth, Sac, and Woodbury.

15 Comments

I'm convinced

Boswell’s selfish stubbornness,d refusal to go when the time was right, and perennial under-performance cost us a winnable seat, probably for the decade. And I’m just as happy; his Blue Dog self-label damaged the Democratic brand across the state. Good riddance; it’s just too bad he was replaced by Latham rather than by a progressive Dem who was actually from Des Moines.

And in pre-buttal to the inevitable Loebsack bashing: the Vilsacks registered in Polk County in January 2007 when Tom’s term ended.

numbers not there for Vilsack

Latham carried IA-03 by more than 30,000 votes. She would have done better than Boswell in Polk County for sure, but Latham could have won even while giving up another 25K votes in Polk. That assumes Vilsack would have matched Boswell’s totals in the rural counties, which I doubt she would have. He represented a bunch of those counties in the 1980s and 1990s.

Vilsack’s whole campaign boiled down to this: I’m a problem solver who will work across party lines. The other guy is a mean-spirited jackass who pushes his right-wing ideology instead of representing his district.

Latham is not nearly as off-putting to moderates as King is. He may vote just like King, but he doesn’t mouth off on tv. He brings money back to his district thanks to his seat on Approps. Not an easy incumbent for any Democrat to run against.

Branding

Loebsack is a progressive who sometimes errs on the side of timidity. Boswell self-identified throughout his career as a “Blue Dog Conservative Democrat.” The Blue Dogs damaged our party’s brand nationally; glad they’re near extinction.

If you sort by overall progressive score during 2011 and 2012 only, Loebsack ranks 160th out of 193.

If you look at the smaller set of “crucial” House votes (defined here), Loebsack’s lifetime progressive ranking is 151st out of 193. Looking at his “crucial” House votes in 2011 and 2012 only, he ranks 159th out of 193.

That’s not a progressive who is sometimes timid. That is a guy who had a close shave in 2010 and has since drifted very close to a Blue Dog in a D+4 district.

Thoughts

Loebsack moved to the center and I thank him for it. He came to realize that he didn’t just represent the most “progressive” parts of Johnson County.

Christie Vilsack seemed unwilling to answer basic questions such as how long should unemployment benefits be extended? Even if you are not sure or don’t want to aggravate your donors at least say some number, she just ran a typical campaign instead of giving straight answers.

There’s no way she would have defeated Latham. I think she could and should run for something else in the future, but her policy people or whomever did not do a good job prepping her.

I’m not convinced that Jim Leach was ever truly to the left of Leonard Boswell once you factor in all votes, rhetorically yes, but I don’t think Progressive Punch is a great measuring stick either. Of course I like having Dems in districts that may lean R and I don’t think the Blue Dogs hurt our brand, but most people who care about the topic disagree.

the Blue Dogs are almost all gone anyway

I agree with you that factoring in all the issues, Leach was not to the left of Boswell. Leach was a master at playing both sides–pro-choice but voting against funding, pro-environment but voting against funding.

Also agree that dancing around the issues was a terrible strategy for Vilsack. Played right into Steve King’s hands.

Boswell below that

and just a couple notches ahead of the top Republican. Indeed, in 01-02 Jim Leach ahd a more progressive record than Boswell.

And that’s really the origin of my Boz beef: the 01-02 era. He was the only Dem in our House delegation at the time and his record made it really hard for those of us trying to take back that iteration of the 2nd CD. His vote for the Iraq War and Harkin’s, probably cost Julie Thomas that race. People were too scared of Ganske to punish Harkin, but wanted to reward Leach’s anti-war vote, and “the Dems voted for the war” gave them the excuse.

do you really think

Loebsack would have courageously voted against the resolution authorizing the use of force in Iraq? That goes against everything we’ve seen from him in the last year.

Boswell is an old-fashioned rural Democrat–better than some, because he’s pro-choice. Not my favorite kind of Democrat, but he never pretended to be a progressive. I think it’s a stretch to blame him for Julie Thomas losing. Lots of people had a long history of crossing lines to support Leach.

an old-fashioned rural Democrat

would have had a change to hold old IA05 in 2002, and that’s where Leonard lived at the time… and apparantly, still lived at the time of the home invasion in 2011. Boswellcould have, maybe, spared us Steve King… but instead he took the easy move (and stepped on Matt McCoy who was already up and running in IA03 in 2001)

We’ll never convince each other. I don’t like Boz, you don’t like Loebsack. At least my guy won.

not a chance

I voted against Boswell in the primary when I had a chance. I have been criticizing his Blue Dog votes at this blog for more than five years. In his defense, I will say that he is probably voting for stuff he believes in most of the time he votes for bills I hate.

I have nothing personal against Loebsack. He seems like a nice guy, and I’m sure he means well. I don’t think he believes in this Blue Dog stuff, and I would like him to vote his principles more often. I think his liberal fans should acknowledge the many compromises he makes and not portray him as some kind of progressive hero, voting to extend all the Bush tax cuts in order to “fight for the middle class”. You can tell Loebsack isn’t proud of these Blue Dog votes. His office doesn’t send out press releases bragging about them.

vilsack versus boswell

The tables don’t show the third parties votes, but Boswell lost more votes to third party candidates than anyone else. If Vilsack had run in district 3, she probably picks up 10,000 votes from 3rd party candidates, and probably could have won the district with a margin Polk of 20,000 (some flips, some 3rd party).

Vilsack ran almost as well as Obama in most counties (better in a few) in district 4. Boswell ran behind Obama in every county in his district, lost huge numbers of votes to 3rd parties in Polk and Pottawattamie, and lost a huge number of suburban voters in Dallas County. Had Leonard stepped down, and let Christie run in this district, I think she would have won by 10,000 to 15,000 votes.

Politics is an odd thing though. We might not be having this conversation if Tom Vilsack ran for Congress in 1996. Boswell stepped in after Tom stepped out.

I take that point

but Vilsack was running against King, not Latham. I wouldn’t assume any Rs or conservative-leaning independents would have voted for her against Latham. The suburban voters in Dallas County would have been for Latham in any case.

I wasn’t living here in 1996 and did not know that Vilsack considered running in the old, old IA-03. Interesting.

vilsack v latham

But a lot of those conservative R/Is voted for Obama and not for Leonard; Christie ran almost as well as Obama in rural counties in district 4 and I think she would have done the same in 3. As for Polk County, Leonard lost a lot of votes due to his stupid feud with Ed Fallon. It just seems to me that Vilsack could have won 7,500+ votes from 3rd party voters who didn’t want to vote for Latham or Boswell. The 3rd had 10,000 more voters who voted for 3rd parties than in other districts. As for Dallas County, more of those suburban voters voted for Obama than Romney. Obama lost Dallas in 2008. I think Leonard’s poor showing in Dallas and Warren was due to Leonard and not the strength of Latham. It’s hard to imagine a lot of Obama/King voters, but there must have been about 18,000 Obama/Latham voters. Christie won about 97% of the vote that Obama won; Leonard won about 83% of the vote that Obama won, despite having 28,000 more Democrats in his district. In terms of outperforming the registration numbers, Vilsack did as well Loebsack (I realize not every registered voter actually votes. This is just a rough measure). When I look at the numbers, I see a real lost opportunity for the Democrats.

late to reply

Meant to respond to this comment earlier. I agree that Vilsack would have lost fewer votes to third-party candidates in IA-03, but I don’t think she would have had as many votes from independents or Rs against Latham. It’s hard to imagine how her campaign against Latham might have played out, because her whole message from beginning to end was about being different from King in temperament and being more focused on local issues than waging ideological warfare.

Historically, Latham has done well with no-party voters, regardless of his Democratic opponent.