U.S. intelligence not consistent in analyzing attacks / American generals give varied accounts on 'foreign fighters'

Raymond Bonner, Joel Brinkley, New York Times

Published 4:00 am, Tuesday, October 28, 2003

2003-10-28 04:00:00 PDT Baghdad -- The coordinated suicide bombings carried out here Monday morning were the work of "foreign fighters," Brig. Gen. Mark Hertling, deputy commander of the 1st Armored Division, said a few hours after the attacks.

This assertion stood in stark contrast to a statement less than 24 hours earlier by Brig. Gen. Martin Dempsey, the division commander. At a news conference Sunday evening, he said he had not seen "any infusion of foreign fighters in Baghdad."

The conflicting statements in such a short space of time reflect the state of the intelligence-gathering here. No issue has proved as confounding over the past six months as that of the identity of insurgents against the American presence in Iraq and the degree of coordination between them.

Hertling told reporters that the belief that the latest attacks were the work of foreign fighters was based on the nature of the attacks and "intelligence indicators." He declined to elaborate.

Bush administration officials have estimated that the number of foreign fighters in Iraq is between 1,000 and 3,000, and Defense Department officials said that estimate has not changed in recent weeks. But civilian and military officials here say they doubt there are anywhere near that number.

Maj. Gen. Raymond Odierno, commander of the Army's 4th Infantry Division, said, "A very, very small percentage of foreign fighters" was responsible for the suicide bombings and other attacks on American forces.

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Odierno, in a video conference call with reporters from his headquarters in Tikrit on Monday, said he believed 95 percent of the attacks were being carried by "former regime loyalists."

"What I found," he added, "is Iraqis do not like people from other countries fooling in Iraqi business. They don't like Iranians here, they don't like Syrians, they really like their own people being involved in this."

The intelligence the Americans are relying on comes from various sources. The Iraqi police and U.S. soldiers have rounded up scores of suspected terrorists, including supposed members of al Qaeda and Ansar al-Islam, a militant group that had its base in northern Iraq and is allegedly linked to al Qaeda. They have also jailed former soldiers who remain loyal to Saddam Hussein.

Every day, U.S. officials say, Iraqi civilians have been providing intelligence that has led to arrests and the seizure of arms caches. Several attacks, including suicide bombings, have been thwarted because of this intelligence, American officials say.

Western military and intelligence officials say they are sure that three distinct groups are carrying out the attacks here.

On Sunday, Dempsey, whose division's responsibility is the security of Baghdad, said, "We've got some diagrams that lay that out in pretty good detail."

From the beginning, the officials said, former loyal members of Hussein's government -- roundly despised by nearly all Iraqis -- have been carrying out attacks that were planned, at least in concept, even before the Americans arrived in Baghdad.

In addition, criminals who were released from jail after the Americans arrived in Baghdad are being paid to carry out conventional attacks, generally deploying roadside bombs. Until recently, these people were paid between $300 and $500 for each attack.

"Five hundred dollars is a lot of money" for these people, Dempsey said.

Odierno said the price is now going up.

"When we first got here," he said, "we believed it was about $100 to conduct an attack against coalition forces, and $500 if you're successful. We now believe it's somewhere between $1,000 and $2,000 if you conduct an attack, and $3,000 to $5,000 if you're successful. We also believe that the price to convince people to even move weapons around or to conduct any type of operation has gone up significantly."

Finally, foreign guerrillas are sneaking into the country to carry out attacks, some officials assert. That is usually not difficult to do because most areas of Iraq's borders remain unguarded. Officials said a would-be suicide bomber who was captured Monday proved to be a Syrian.

The use of suicide attacks inevitably invites comparison to the intractable conflict between Palestinians and Israelis.

Here, as in Israel, suicide bombers seem to attack at will, despite massive military forces arrayed against them. Here, as in Israel, the political and military leadership predict that the terrorists will be defeated.

"I think they can be prevented from being successful," Hertling said.

But there the similarities end. Intifada means uprising -- a large- scale, popular revolt. Among the Palestinians, it is hard to find anyone who will criticize the intifada.

By almost anyone's assessment here, however, the Americans are facing an insurgency carried out by a small minority of the population. Opinion polls and numerous interviews show that most Iraqis do not want the Americans to leave and want the attacks to stop.

"I think they should stay for a while, until the Iraqi people are ready to make things work," said Layan Kamber, the wife of a wealthy businessman who, before the war, must have been a Hussein loyalist to have succeeded.

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"We want more security," she added, an observation almost any Iraqi will offer with only the slightest prompting. To them, "more security" means freedom from attacks.

But security does not come easily. A senior occupation military official, asked Monday whether the United States could end the attacks, said: "Yes, we can stop it. But that would mean putting up checkpoints every block or two. And if we do that, then the bad guys will have won."

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