16 marzo 2016

situación de las finanzas de EEUU

Six years ago the federal budget deficit peaked at almost $1.5 trillion, a staggering 10.2% of GDP. Last year it was only $475 billion, a modest 2.3% of GDP. That's some pretty significant progress that hardly anyone expected, and it was due mainly to spending restraint and the growth of jobs, incomes, and profits.

Keynesian economists in 2009 would have predicted a massive recession/depression had you asked them to forecast the impact of such a huge reduction in the deficit. At the time (2009), they all predicted that a surge in spending (i.e., the ARRA) would jump-start the economy boost growth for several years, and they disagreed only about the size of stimulus spending, with most arguing for more rather than less. As it turned out, almost $1 trillion of "stimulus" spending gave us the slowest recovery on record. Ditto for the Fed's QE and massive purchases of notes and bonds, which did little if anything to stimulate the economy. All the government and policy intervention was for naught. From a supply-sider's perspective, it's more likely the case that massive government spending and policy interventioncontributedto the economy's malaise.

Spending was flat from mid-2009 to late 2014, but since then it has resumed its upward trend, even as the economy slowed last year (which is not surprising from a supply-side point of view). Revenues, in contrast, rose over 60% from their early-2010 low.

Relative to GDP, the picture looks pretty good. Spending currently is around 20.5% of GDP, just over one percentage point above its post-War average, and way down from its 2009 high. Revenues are coming in around 18.2% of GDP, also about one percentage above their post-War average. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to increase much further relative to GDP, since the growth of revenues has already slowed to 4-5% or less. Unless, of course, policies take a turn for the better (e.g., lower marginal tax rates, reduced regulatory burdens).

Last year's deficit was only slightly above its post-War average. If current conditions were to continue, the outlook for federal government finances would be sustainable for at least several years. Unfortunately, without entitlement reform, spending could rise significantly in the years to come. Transfer payments last year totaled over $2.7 trillion, almost 73% of total federal spending and 15% of GDP! Needless to say, transfer payments don't contribute to GDP, since they involve taking money from taxpayers and giving it to people who likely are not working or not paying much in taxes (e.g., retired, disabled, lower income). We need reform in Washington for the outlook to brighten.

Individual income taxes (which include taxes on dividends and realized capital gains) were the main engine behind revenue growth, rising at an annualized rate of 10.2% over the past six years. Despite disappointingly slow economic growth last year, individual income taxes last year increased 9%. Payroll taxes (FICA) didn't grow nearly as fast, however, thanks mainly to the slow recovery in jobs and a payroll tax holiday in 2011 and 2012, but they rose 5.4% last year, despite the modest 1.9% growth in jobs.

Two months ago,when we calculatedthat the US would need a new "debt ceiling" of $19.6 trillion to last until after Obama's tenure, we may have been too optimistic: since the increase in the hard debt limit of $18.15 trillion which was raised at the end of October, the US appears to be growing its debt at a far faster pace than we had originally expected, and according to the latest public debt data, as of the last day of January,total US debt just hit 19,012,827,698,417.93.

This means that if the nominal US GDP as of December 31 which was $18.12 trillion grows at the 1.2% rate expected by the Atlanta Fed, total debt to GDP is now on pace to hit 105% at the next GDP tabulation, and rising fast from there.

It also means that since his inauguration in January 2009, the US debt has now risen by a whopping 78.9%, or $8.4 trillion. It was $10.6 trillion when Obama came into office.

Indicatively, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the national debt will hit $22.6 trillion by 2020 and will rise to $29.3 trillion by 2026.

This is a guest post by Yuka Kato atHowMuch. The post covers imports, exports and trade imbalances between the US and the rest of the world.

Visualizing U.S. Exports & Imports

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its data on U.S. trade in goods by selected countries and world region for 2015. We built three maps to provide a proportional visualization of the trade that occurs between the U.S. and other countries. Exports are represented in green, imports are represented in red, and the balance (exports – imports) is represented by red or green depending on whether the U.S. has exported more or less goods than it has imported. For instance, if a country’s imports exceeds its exports, the country will experience a trade deficit, which represents an outflow of domestic currency to foreign markets. Based on the data, the U.S. exported over $1.5 trillion and imported over $2.2 trillion in goods throughout 2015. This leaves leaves the U.S. with a negative balance of $735 billion!

Countries in red are those for which the US runs a trade deficit (more imports from than exports to). Countries in Green are those for which the US runs a trade surplus (more exports to than imports from).

Largest Balances by Country

Take a look at the top 5 countries with the largest balances (positive and negative):

Top 5 Positive Balances

Hong Kong: $30.5 billion

Netherlands: $24.0 billion

Belgium: $14.6 billion

Australia: $14.2 billion

Singapore: $10.4 billion

Top 5 Negative Balances

China: $365.7 billion

Germany: $74.2 billion

Japan: $68.6 billion

Mexico: $58.4 billion

Ireland: $30.4 billion

Top 5 Countries for Exports

Canada: $280.3 billion

Mexico: $236.4 billion

China: $116.2 billion

Japan: $62.5 billion

United Kingdom: $56.4 billion

Together the top 5 countries make up about 50% of all U.S. exports.

Top 5 Countries for Imports

China: $481.9 billion

Canada: $295.2 billion

Mexico: $294.7 billion

Japan: $131.1 billion

Germany: $124.1 billion

Together the top 5 countries make up about 59% of all U.S. imports.

Maintaining a Balance in Trade

Looking at the data by area shows that South/Central America, OPEC and Africa are the only regions with positive balances, whereas North America, Europe, and Pacific Rim areas show a negative balance. Interestingly, China, which as a negative balance of $365.7 billion represents ~80% of the negative balance attributed to the Pacific Rim countries and ~50% of the overall negative balance! To put this into perspective, the continent of Europe represents only ~23% of the overall negative balance for selected countries.

End Guest Post – Mish Comments

Top Five U.S. Trading Partners (Imports + Exports)

China $598.1 billion

Canada $575.5 billion

Mexico $531.1 billion

Japan $193.6

Germany $174.0

On a total trade basis, China is the top US trading partner. In terms of exports only, the order is Canada, Mexico, China.