The view from Austin: Election recap edition

March 6, 2020

Well, the Super Tuesday primary election is over. Most races across the county and within Texas turned out as expected, but there were some surprises along the way.

Presidential
Primary

Headlining
the ballot in 14 states was the presidential primary. Of course, President
Trump sailed to victory on the Republican ticket, but the real story was the
crowded Democratic presidential primary. Long story short, former Vice
President Joe Biden and far-left Sen. Bernie Sanders emerged from the night as
the only two viable contenders.

Biden
narrowly won Texas with Sanders close behind. Former New York Mayor Michael
Bloomberg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren came in a distant third and fourth,
respectively. Oklahoma gave their nod to Biden as well, but by a much larger
majority.

Biden or
Sanders still have a long way to go to secure the nomination. 19 primary
contests are now over, but there are 38 to go. To advance to the general
election, the Democratic nominee must secure 1,991 delegates from across the country.
So far, Biden has 595 and Sanders 528.

U.S.
Senate Primary

The
biggest statewide race in Texas was for U.S. Senate. Republican incumbent John
Cornyn easily beat four challengers to secure the Republican ticket with 76% of
the vote. The 12-candidate Democratic contest was closer. Mary “MJ” Hegar won
but will face Texas State Senator Royce West in a runoff.

This a
good place to mention that in Texas, any race in which a primary candidate fails
to secure at least 50% of the vote will result in a May runoff election where
only the top two candidates will be on the ballot.

U.S.
House of Representative Primaries

Moving
on to the U.S. House of Representative races, many of the 36 Texas
Congressional districts played out as expected, but some highlights are below.

In U.S.
House District 11, the seat vacated by Rep. Mike Conaway, TSCRA PAC-backed Republican
candidate August Pfluger won without a runoff, as did Rep. Kay Granger from
U.S. House District 12 in Fort Worth. Both will face Democratic challengers in
November but are in solidly Republican districts.

In U.S.
House District 13 covering North Texas and the Panhandle, 15 candidates
competed for the Republican nomination with TSCRA PAC-backed candidate Josh
Winegarner leading the pack, followed by Ronny Jackson. The two will now go to
a runoff election.

In
Waco’s House District 17, 12 Republican candidates ran to fill the seat of
retiring Rep. Bill Flores. Former Congressman Pete Sessions will go to a runoff
election with Renee Swann.

In suburban
Austin’s U.S. House District 21, Democrat Wendy Davis and Republican incumbent
Chip Roy handily won their respective primaries but are expected to have a
fierce race between one another for the general election in November. Roy is
endorsed by the TSCRA PAC.

U.S. House
District 23, which stretches from San Antonio to far West Texas, is one of
Texas’ most hotly contested swing districts. Tony Gonzales and Raul Reyes will
head to a runoff for the Republican nomination in the race to replace retiring Rep.
Will Hurd. On the Democratic side, Gina Ortiz Jones easily won her primary
race.

Rep.
Henry Cuellar, the Democratic incumbent for U.S. House District 28, fended off
a challenge from far-left progressive Jessica Cisneros, narrowly avoiding a
runoff. Cuellar is backed by the TSCRA PAC and expected to easily win the
general election in his heavily Democratic district that runs from San Antonio
to Laredo.

Texas
Statewide Primaries

The
biggest surprise of the night was the upset defeat of incumbent Railroad
Commissioner Ryan Sitton by challenger Jim Wright in the Republican primary.
Sitton had a campaign war chest of $2.2 million while Wright had less than
$13,000. The Democratic primary heads to a runoff between Chrysta Castañeda and Roberto R.
“Beto” Alonzo, one of whom will face Wright in November.

Texas
Supreme Court and State Board of Education races turned out largely as expected
except in the Austin/Fredericksburg area State Board of Education District 5
race where the far-right and very eccentric Robert Morrow led the primary. He
now heads to a runoff with Lani Popp.

Texas
State Senate Primaries

Republican
incumbent Rep. Pete Flores ran unopposed in Senate District 19 but will face a
very tough race in the general election against either Xochil Pena Rodriguez or
Roland Gutierrez, who are in a runoff for the Democratic slot. Flores is backed
by the TSCRA PAC.

Brownsville
Democratic incumbent and TSCRA PAC-endorsed Eddie Lucio, Jr. is now locked in a
runoff with Sara Stapleton Barrera for Senate District 27. Barerra ran to the
left of Lucio, who is one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate. She
was one of three far-left progressive candidates backed by AOC (Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez) and the only one of the three to see any success in Texas.

Texas
State House of Representatives Primaries

In
Texas House District 2 East of Dallas, incumbent Republican Rep. Dan Flynn
unexpectedly landed in a runoff with challenger Bryan Slaton. Flynn is endorsed
by the TSCRA PAC.

Jake
Ellzey received the Republican nod for Texas House District 10 in Waxahachie.
He’ll run unopposed in November to replace retiring Rep. John Wray.

In
Texas House District 25, the seat to be vacated by Speaker Dennis Bonnen of
Angleton, will go to a runoff for the Republican primary. Ro’Vin Garrett or Cody
Thane Vasut will face Democrat Patrick Henry for the general election, but the
district is expected to remain in Republican control.

Texas
House District 26 in Sugar Land will go to a runoff for both the Democratic and
Republican contests. Republican incumbent Rick Miller isn’t seeking reelection,
and the district could go either way in November.

The
special election earlier this year for Texas House District 28 in nearby
Richmond was a litmus test for Democrats seeking control over the Texas House.
Republican Gary Gates won that special election against Democrat Elizabeth
Markowitz. He also easily won the Republican primary on Tuesday but will have a
tight race for the general election, once again against Markowitz.

In
Texas House District 45 outside of Austin, Carrie Isaac and Bud Wymore will
head to a Republican runoff election to decide who challenges one-term Democrat
Erin Zwiener. This will be a race to watch in November.

Texas
House District 47, also near Austin, is in a similar situation with Jennifer
Fleck and Don Zimmerman in a Republican runoff to try to unseat one-term
Democrat Vikki Goodwin.

If you don’t believe that every vote counts, District 47 was the perfect example. Don Zimmerman beat Justin Berry for second place by only one vote! 4,099 to 4,098. That one vote means Zimmerman gets to advance to the runoff.

Republican incumbent J.D. Sheffield, who was endorsed by the TSCRA PAC, is unexpectedly heading to a runoff against challenger Shelby Slawson, who led the Republican primary by more than 15% for Texas House District 59.

TSCRA
PAC-backed Glenn Rogers and Jon Francis will head to a runoff for House
District 60. The seat is being vacated by retiring Rep. Mike Lang of Granbury
and has no Democratic challenger in November, so voters in the runoff election
will make the final decision.

These
were just a handful of the hundreds of races from Tuesday. If you don’t see one
that you’re interested in, check out the Texas Tribune’s recap here. TSCRA leaders and staff will also
continue to engage with candidates ahead of the primary runoff and general elections,
so stay tuned for developments.

There
were other happenings this week, but I’ll save those for another time since
I’ve droned on about the election for so long.

Until
then,

-Jeremy

Jeremy Fuchs is Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association’s director of public affairs.