Sunday, May 24, 2009

The mid‐year economy shows multiple signs of reaching the bottom of the Great Recession. Saying that a bottom is found does not say that recovery is underway. All indicators surveyed in this report suggest that the start of recovery is several months out, perhaps as far away as early 2010.

The impact of the various policy actions taken in the name of stabilizing financial markets and stimulating the economy are targeting large firms, those called too big to fail, state and county government activities, and the healthcare sector.

Along with bundles of assistance come additional constraints. Those sectors receiving the most assistance will become less agile. While members of the palace guard, they will form a new economic sector, one that has stiff joints, hardening of the arteries, and less ability to respond quickly to opportunity. Those unblessed firms and organizations that are small enough to fail will gain. They will be relatively more active and competitive. In short, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act provides immense opportunity for entrepreneurs to move forward.