Business Confidence Index: Signs of Recovery

After the sharp decline in Q2 2015, business confidence (BCI) in Georgia showed signs of rebounding in Q3. In line with expectations, April, May and June were ex-post not particularly favorable months for Georgian businesses.

Out of the 211 companies surveyed, about half reported having trouble in business activities in April, May and June (reflected in low sales, turnover or production numbers). Accordingly, the main driver of the overall BCI rebound in Q3 was the strident increase in expectations. The business expectations index increased by 30 index points in one quarter – a sharp rebound that almost compensated for the loss of confidence in Q2 2015.

BCI Methodology

ISET Policy Institute's quarterly Business Confidence Survey (BCI) is conducted in partnership with BIA (Business Information Agency) and the International Chamber of Commerce-Georgia (ICC) since December 2013. The BCI is published on ISET-PI website and in Georgian media. The BCI comprises seven sector-specific sub-indices covering services, retail trade, agriculture, manufacturing, financial services, construction and other sectors. For each sector, confidence is measured through a simple survey instrument targeted at top business executives.