It was an article of faith among some Republicans that
President Obama's reelection was doomed because voters would stampede to the
polls in anger over Obamacare. So, how'd that turn out? Election results notwithstanding, Republicans believe
Americans hate Obamacare. That presumes, of course, they understand it, which
they don't, because Obama so poorly communicated its provisions. In the House,
however, Republicans have voted 40
times to repeal it (even though it was originally their
idea).

In the Senate, David Vitter and other conservatives threaten
to shutter the government if Obamacare isn't abolished. Gov. Bobby Jindal cheers
them on, although responsible GOP leaders argue that's a suicide mission to kill
their chances of regaining the Senate.

Where exactly Sen. Mary Landrieu's Republican opponent
- Rep. Bill Cassidy - stands on the government shutdown question is a mystery.
He's always voted to repeal the law, but now sayshe's "deliberative" on this matter.

In any event, Cassidy and his
supporters seem to think they have a winning issue. The strategy
is to wrap Obamacare around Landrieu's neck and let the law's unpopularity drag
her down.

Jindal, of course, has worked hard
to thwart Obamacare, refusing to establish a state-run marketplace to help
private insurers compete for the business of 800,000 uninsured citizens. Instead,
he's let Washington impose its own insurance
exchange. Louisiana residents can begin enrolling once the various
plans are announced on October 1.

Unlike several prominent
Republican governors, Jindal also opposes another key Obamacare feature -
expanding Medicaid to the working poor, paid entirely by Washington for the
first three years and, thereafter, with a 90 percent federal match.

So it is, with Jindal's
considerable help, that Cassidy and the Louisiana GOP hope and pray that
Obamacare will flop in Louisiana, rebounding to Cassidy's political fortunes. Save
for another day a discussion of such callousness toward the working poor. For
now, shall we merely consider the soundness of their political strategy?

First, counting on Obamacare to
drive legions of new voters to the polls didn't work, even when its namesake
was on the ballot in 2012. Why do Republicans believe this silent majority will
suddenly appear in 2014? (They are, of course, counting on a whiter, older
electorate next year.)

Second, under Obamacare, the
roughly 70 percent of Louisianans with health insurance will experience absolutely
no change in their health coverage.

Third, Cassidy has his own complicated relationship
with Obamacare, having celebrated
school-based health clinics created with federal grants
from that very program.

Finally, despite Jindal's best
efforts, it's not at all clear that Obamacare will actually fail. Most states
that have rolled out health care exchanges are reporting huge savings. In Maryland,
rates will be 33 percent less than expected. USA
Today reports that a 21-year-old non-smoker in that state
could get a policy for as little as $93 a month. Health insurance rates in Connecticut,
New
York and California
will drop significantly.

In Washington
state, a policy offered by the insurer LifeWise will require a
40-year-old non-smoker in King County to pay $254 a month, a slight increase
over the current premium. But this person will now have coverage for
prescription drugs and maternity care and will enjoy out-of-pocket spending
limits.

Even Idaho,
whose GOP governor strongly opposed Obamacare, has surrendered to reality. As a
result, five companies will offer 134 different plans for now-uninsured residents.

In states where some rates might
rise slightly, most poor working families will be eligible for federal premium subsidies.

So far, the evidence suggests that
Obamacare is not the catastrophe Republicans hoped and expected it would be (why
can't they just celebrate the success of their own ideas?). But their
irrational addiction to repealing it makes it clear they haven't gotten that
message. They persist in believing it will be a disaster for Democrats like
Landrieu.

In fact, it's possible the issue might hurt Cassidy
more. Landrieu should hope that Vitter and his conservative pals are reckless
enough to actually shut down the government over the issue. As Majority Leader
Harry Reid suggested,
just ask Newt Gingrich how well that worked last time.

Most observers agree that the senior senator from
Louisiana has a tough race on her hands. She could lose reelection. If she
does, however, it won't be because she voted for Obamacare.

If she wins, however, it could be because the GOP
wasted its time attacking her on the wrong issue.

Robert Mann, a professor at LSU's Manship School of Mass Communication, can be reached at bob.mann@outlook.com. Follow him at twitter.com/RTMannJr.