Thoughts of a Cynical Investorhttps://atans1.wordpress.com
Avoiding losing serious moneyFri, 18 Aug 2017 02:09:03 +0000enhourly1http://wordpress.com/https://s2.wp.com/i/buttonw-com.pngThoughts of a Cynical Investorhttps://atans1.wordpress.com
More on Hali’s judgement between 2007 -2011/ Meritocracy? What meritocracy?https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/18/more-on-halis-judgement-between-2007-2011-meritocracy-what-meritocracy/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/18/more-on-halis-judgement-between-2007-2011-meritocracy-what-meritocracy/#respondFri, 18 Aug 2017 02:07:55 +0000http://atans1.wordpress.com/?p=38356]]>Further to this about Hali’s judgment as SMRT non-executive director in not being aware of MRT problems that ordinary S’poreans were aware of, there’s more about her judgement (or rather lack of it) during her spell as SMRT director and a senior NTUC leader.

I wrote this in 2012 about Ong Ye Kung, but it applies to Halimah too given that labour problems don’t just happen overnight. They fester over time. And she should have known about the labour tensions in SMRT given that she was Deputy Secretary General, Director of the Legal Services Department and Director of the Women’s Development Secretariat.

Earlier this year, SMRT’s S’porean drivers made known publicly their unhappiness over pay proposals that had his endorsement as Executive Secretary of NTWU (Nation Transport Workers’ Union). As he was also a non-executive director of SMRT, if he were an investment banker, a US judge would have rebuked and censured him for his multiple, conflicting roles.

Then he resigned, effective last month, from NTUC to “join the private sector”.

In perhaps a farewell, good-riddance gesture, FT PRC workers went on strike (illegally) and we learnt:

— they lived in sub-standard accommodation (SMRT admitted this);

— unlike most SBS FT PRC drivers, most of SMRT’s PRC drivers were not union members; and

— Ministry of Manpower reprimanded SMRT for its HR practices.

All this reflects badly on Ong: NTUC’s Deputy Secretary-General, Executive-Secretary of NTWU and SMRT non-executive director. And on the system that allowed him to rise to the top. After all his ex-boss said the following reported on Friday, which given Ong’s multiple roles in SMRT, can reasonably be interpreted as criticism of Ong:

In his first comments on the illegal strike, which saw 171 workers protesting over salary increases and living conditions, the Secretary-General of the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) said the labour dispute “shouldn’t have happened” and “could have been avoided”. [So where was Ong: looking at his monthly CPF statements and being happy?]

NTUC is thus reaching out to SMRT’s management to persuade them “to adopt a more enlightened approach to embrace the union as a partner”, he added. [Hello, NTUC’s Deputy Secretary-General was on SMRT’s board, so what waz he doing?]

Mr Lim, who was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Labour Movement Workplan Seminar, cited the example of SMRT’s rival SBS Transit where nine in 10 of its China bus drivers are union members. Only one in 10 of SMRT’s China bus drivers are union members, according to union sources. [So, why didn’t Ong advise SMRT to help unionise these FTs, and if he did, why didn’t NTUC push harder ehen SMRT refused?]

SBS Transit’s management “recognised the constructive role of the union”, while union leaders “played the role of looking after the interests of the drivers”, said Mr Lim.

“And as a result … they work very closely as one team, it’s a win-win outcome. In terms of how workers are being treated and respected, how management are responsive, how they work together, I think it’s a kind of model that we ought to see more and more in Singapore.” (Today)

Judgment? What judgment?

Coming back to Ong. Given he’s failed at NTUC as Zorro Lim implied above, he’s now said to be a possible PM?

And NTUC is not the only place he failed. He failed here too:

Ong was the Chief Executive of the Singapore Workforce Development Agency from 2005 to 2008. There, he spearheaded many initiatives to build up the Continuing Education and Training infrastructure for Singapore, and made training accessible to the individual worker, including contract workers and the unemployed.

Wikipedia entry

Surely he must share a lot of the blame for the low productivity of S’pore’s work force?

]]>https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/18/more-on-halis-judgement-between-2007-2011-meritocracy-what-meritocracy/feed/0atans1How Trump can keep America safe from Islamic terroristshttps://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/18/how-trump-can-keep-america-safe-from-islamic-terrorists/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/18/how-trump-can-keep-america-safe-from-islamic-terrorists/#respondThu, 17 Aug 2017 20:49:42 +0000http://atans1.wordpress.com/?p=38355]]>The latest Barcelona tragedy reminded me of a piece I wrote sometime back. Given the problems he’s having with the progressive US media and the sore losers who love Hilary,he can play to his base:”Keep America Safe. Ban Muslims from driving”. He can quote the examples in my piece to show that allowing Muslims to drive presents a clear and present danger to Americans.

The kind of jihadist attack in London that happened in London two days ago is called the “marauding” method of terror attack was similar to attacks carried out by Islamists last year in France and Germany. It involves using a vehicle to mow people down in a crowded area.

And the BBC reported on 23 March that a French national of North African origin has been arrested in the Belgian city of Antwerp on suspicion of driving at a crowd, officials say.

Seriously, since SAF is careful on where Muslims are deployed with the SAF, it follows that our bus operators and owners of trucks and other heavy eqpt should be careful about employing Muslims to drive these vehicles.

Of course people like Kirsten Han and other ang moh tua kees will scream discrimination but better safe than sorry. And anyway, the next president is going to be Muslim. So discrimination? What discrimination?

OK, OK, the next president will be a Malay because under our constitution there is no requirement a Malay must be Muslim (unlike in M’sia). Hey but none of the probable candidates are non-Muslim Malays. And anyway, whatever the con says, the Malay community sees Islam as the religion of the Malays.

–

Actually I can add to the last para that all the “Malays” who want to stand as president all have Indian blood. And only one has i/c saying “Malay” and he isn’t the chosen one. Her i/c says”Indian’.

The constructive, nation-building media repoeted that the presumptive Madam President said making a decision to unlock the nation’s reserves is not just based on numbers but involves exercising judgment gleaned from years of experience in policymaking. (Here’s what Chris K says about the lack of discretion that any president has.)

Well between 2007 and 2011, where was her judgement when she was a non-executive director of SMRT?

I mean it wasn’t only the cybernuts in TRELand who were pointing out the problems that SMRT was not owning up to such as overcrowding and a lack of maintenance. Luckily for the PAP and PM, it was only after GE and PE 2011 that the wheels came off the trains, the signal lights failed, and the power supply failed, something predicted by many S’poreans.

Where was her judgement then? Presumably that management not the users of the MRT system were correct that everything was fine?

The Philippine economy is one of the peppiest in South-East Asia. Last year it expanded by 6.8%, overtaking those of Singapore and Malaysia in size. The World Bank expects it to grow at a similar pace this year and next.

On a year on year measure, GDP rose 3.8 per cent – above a 3.3 per cent forecast – and a moderation from the 4.3 per cent year on year registered at the start of the year. The first quarter expansion was Hong Kong’s best since 2011.

FT

Now our constructive, nation-building media reports that for S’pore

the year-on-year growth number of 2.9 per cent for the second quarter could be the economy’s strongest showing this year, given MTI’s expectation for 2017 growth to come in at 2.5 per cent. This means that the economy will likely see an average growth of about 2.3 per cent of the second half of the year after having expanded 2.7 per cent over the first two quarters.

Btw, HK revised its full-year GDP forecast from a range of 2-3 per cent to 3-4 per cent in 2017. So 2.3% iGDP growth is “peanuts”.

While PM was bawling and brawling with his siblings in a muddy playpen and ensuring that we have a Malay president whose i/c says “Indian”, HK’s economy, despite all its internal political problems (shumething we don’t have since we are a defacto one party state under Lee) is powering ahead.

When talking on “Indian” is “Malay” I wrote something that helps explain, partially, why we are growing at only the average first world standard, not more, unlike HK:

Whatever, how can S’pore be creative, let alone progress if the ruling party in a defacto one-party state refuses to change its mind on policies that no longer work or never worked in the first place?

Take the economy where the PAP

— continues to see welfare** as a bad thing except when it needs to buy votes, and

Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back

Tomorrow, I’ll tell of an Asian city (not HK) that has no high-paid ministers or bureucrats mindlessly churning out restructuring master plans but which is a place that even Silicon Valley respects albeit grudgingly.

]]>https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/pm-this-is-real-economic-growth/feed/1atans1Temasek makes money on Snaphttps://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/temasek-makes-money-on-snap/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/temasek-makes-money-on-snap/#respondTue, 15 Aug 2017 22:14:16 +0000http://atans1.wordpress.com/?p=38339]]>Something alternative media will not tell u about. To be fair neither will the subversives working in ST.

FT reported that filings showed Temasek sold Snap 300,000 shares valued at US$6.76m. This works out to US$22.33 a share. Snap sold shares at its initial public offering in March at $17 apiece and at that price was worth US$24bn. This was more than a pre-IPO valuation in the second half of 2016 of US$20bn, when it raised US$1.8bn in a Series F round.

Of course the amounts involved are “peanuts” but every little “peanut” counts.

Btw, Snap shares have collapsed to around US$12.

]]>https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/temasek-makes-money-on-snap/feed/0atans1Drinking good winehttps://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/15/drinking-good-wine/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/15/drinking-good-wine/#commentsTue, 15 Aug 2017 09:02:17 +0000http://atans1.wordpress.com/?p=38329]]>The Mail …reports that the way to make wine taste better is to put a high price tag on it, after volunteers who tasted the same wine with different price labels said the one thought to be most expensive tasted the best.

BBC

]]>https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/15/drinking-good-wine/feed/1atans1When a ceremonial president goes “rogue”https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/15/when-a-ceremonial-president-goes-rogue/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/15/when-a-ceremonial-president-goes-rogue/#commentsMon, 14 Aug 2017 23:18:19 +0000http://atans1.wordpress.com/?p=38247]]>Nothing much any government can do if it wants to avoid a public row.

This piece tries to explain why die die PAP must get the president PAP wants. And why even then there can be problems. Remember our first elected president?

A look at the relations between India’s ceremonial president (He is the head of the state, and is required by the constitution to act on the advice of ministers) and the governments of the day show how difficult it is to control a president who goes “rogue” ie refuses to act on the advice of ministers even when the constitution says he must.

Our president is more than a ceremonial figure. He is supposed to be a figurehead with some chief jaga duties primarily centred around protecting our reserves. It’s a mixture of ceremonial and custodial functions, thanks to one Harry Lee.

The ceremonial role aspect of our president, a figurehead, is based on the Indian model: he is the head of the state, and is required by the constitution to act on the advice of ministers.

An Indian president is supposedly

a mere figurehead who, in the words of former prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru, is a “head that neither reigns nor governs”, and holds a position of “authority or dignity” more than anything else?

In 1987, he withheld assent from a controversial bill passed by the parliament. (The bill was later withdrawn.) There were reports that Mr Singh, who died in 1994 , had even considered sacking Mr Gandhi’s government over an arms purchasing scandal.

The ninth incumbent Shankar Dayal Sharma returned two executive orders to the cabinet in 1996 because they had been “inappropriately” issued before a general election.

And his successor, KR Narayanan, a London School of Economics-educated former diplomat and Dalit (formerly known as “untouchable”), was arguably one of India’s most assertive presidents. He delivered speeches which many believed were not vetted by the government and, in a surprising break from protocol, even gave an interview to a senior journalist.

Mr Narayanan also sent back a proposal to impose direct rule in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh to the cabinet, asking the ministers to reconsider it. He bluntly said: “I am not a rubber stamp.”

And he angered many in the government and the media for chiding visiting US president Bill Clinton at a state banquet, provoking the New York Times to comment that “the tensions inherent in forging an Indian-American friendship surfaced with Mr Narayanan’s speech”.

Then there was the previous president

Prof Manor believes Mr Kovind’s predecessor, Pranab Mukherjee, a veteran Congress party leader and a former senior minister, was “more assertive than nearly all previous presidents”.

“Mr Mukherjee had the right to refer those cases back to ministers for reconsideration once, but when they reiterated the advice, he is required to accept it. He refused to do so,” explains Prof Manor.

“That was potentially explosive politically, and might have led to a constitutional crisis. But the prime minister and cabinet apparently decided not to make an issue of it – because Mr Mukherjee’s term was soon to end, and because a confrontation would have prevented them from doing other important things.”

So one can understand why the ruling party in a de facto one-party state wants to ensure that the presidency is held by someone who will not go “rogue”, especially given that the job has chief jaga duties. Remember Ong Teng Cheong?

Whatever, there’s something the PAP cannot avoid: a “rogue” president has the power to publicise via the alternative, new or social media his views when he rows with the PAP administration. So all the more important to make sure kaki lung gets in.

]]>https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/15/when-a-ceremonial-president-goes-rogue/feed/1atans1The Bank that made Trump Great Againhttps://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/14/the-bank-that-made-trump-great-again/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2017/08/14/the-bank-that-made-trump-great-again/#respondMon, 14 Aug 2017 06:30:19 +0000http://atans1.wordpress.com/?p=38055]]>It lent him money when American banks refused to take his calls. But he then sued the bank: ungrateful.

From NYT Dealbook

By Amie Tsang

Few major financial institutions have been willing to lend to Donald J. Trump over the years. But during his victorious presidential campaign, he pointed to one that had done plenty of business with him: Deutsche Bank.

Now that relationship has come under scrutiny.

Regulators are reviewing hundreds of millions of dollars in loans made to Mr. Trump’s businesses through Deutsche Bank’s private wealth management unit, The New York Times reported, citing three people briefed on the review. The regulators are examining whether the loans might expose the banks to heightened risks.

New York regulators have paid particular attention to personal guarantees Mr. Trump made to obtain the loans.

There is no formal investigation of the bank, and personal guarantees are often required for big loans from wealth managers. The regulators are focused on whether these guarantees could create problems for Deutsche Bank should Mr. Trump fail to pay his debts, leaving it with a choice of suing him or risking being seen to have cut him a special deal. The concern is not hypothetical: Mr. Trump sued the bank to delay paying back an earlier loan.

Separately, Deutsche Bank has been in contact with federal investigators, and it is likely eventually to have to provide information on the Trump accounts to the special counsel in the Russia inquiry, Robert S. Mueller III.

Mr. Trump’s 20-year relationship with the bank is complicated, involving more than $4 billion in loan commitments and potential bond offerings, most of them completed. Despite the risks involved, working with Mr. Trump has made Deutsche Bank money, according to people with knowledge of the details.