1) Trading 101: Starting Your Trading Program By Sunny HarrisIn this video, author and professional trader Sunny Harris boils trading system design and analysis down to its most essential rules. In just a little more than an hour, you will discover the elements that are necessary to create a winning system, and you'll find out how you can apply each of these elements to your own trading. In addition, you will learn the 6 trading rules that will give you an edge, the 6 money management rules that will improve any system and the 6 essential steps to test your trading methodology.

2) Advanced Trading Applications of Candlestick Charting (73:53)By Brad Matheny/Gary WagnerIn this video workshop, you will discover the crucial chart patterns that candlesticks reveal, how to interpret them and how to use them to pinpoint market turns. You'll also learn how to use candlesticks in combination with familiar technical indicators like Stochastics, %R, Relative Strength Index and Moving Averages to create a dynamic, synergistic and extremely successful trading system.

3) Spotting breakouts that lead to trend reversals (50:47)By Darrell JobmanPutting indicator clues together to identify setups for a new trend. As breakouts can be quite subjective, this video shows how to use other indicators and predict highs, lows and adopt multi-contract positions to provide profit.

In order to get the free instant access to the videos, just fill out the form here.Hope this info can be useful to you.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

After we know the definition and how to calculate HV, we’ll move on to its interpretation.

Example:If it is known that the value of HV is 35%. Remember that this HV value is annualised, i.e. for one year.
As mentioned in the earlier post, assuming that price returns are normally distributed, about two-third of the time, an individual return would fall within one standard deviation of the mean, and about 95% of the time, an individual return would fall within two standard deviation of the mean.

That means, we can interpret that in one year, approximately two-thirds of the time, the stock returns would be between minus 35% and plus 35%. Or about 95% of the time, the stock return would be between minus 70% (= 2*35%) and plus 70%.

If the stock price is $100, in one year, the price would probably be between $65 and $135 about two-thirds of the time. Or about 95% of the time, the stock price would be within $30 to $170 range.

How about for one month?Since the annualised HV is 35%, the estimated value of standard deviation for one month will be:

That means, in one month, approximately two-thirds of the time, the stock returns would be between minus 10% and plus 10%. Or about 95% of the time, the stock return would be between minus 20% (= 2*10%) and plus 20%.

If the stock price is $100, in one month, the price would probably be between $90 and $110 about two-thirds of the time. Or about 95% of the time, the stock price would be within $80 to $120 range.

How about for 10 days?With the annualised HV of35%, the estimated value of standard deviation for 10 days will be:

That means, in 10 days time, approximately two-thirds of the time, the stock returns would be between minus 7% and plus 7%. Or about 95% of the time, the stock return would be between minus 14% (= 2*7%) and plus 14%.

If the stock price is $100, in 10 days, the price is expected to be between $93 and $107 about two-thirds of the time. Or about 95% of the time, the stock price would be within $86 to $114 range.

Note:Some people use the following formula to convert:

This formula is actually the same as the above formula.
This formula is based on the one mentioned in Wikipedia, as discussed in the earlier post (Part 5).

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