Forex today: the USD is falling again

09:55 04.06.2018

The US dollar index is falling again. It has tested levels below $94. No important data will be released today. The support lies at $93.70.

The EU economic data aren’t encouraging today. However, the euro managed to rise because of the US dollar’s weakness. EUR/USD rebounded from the support at 1.1650. Up to now, the pair is moving to the resistance at 1.1750 (100-hour MA). The further fall of the greenback will let the pair close above the resistance. Otherwise, the pair will trade within 1.1650-1.1750. Tomorrow a lot of economic data will be released. If they are encouraging, the euro will have chances to continue the upward movement.

The pound is rising as well. Positive economic data are supporting the GBP/USD pair. The pair is moving to the resistance at 1.34. If it’s able to close above this level, the pair will have more chances for the further upward movement. Moreover, tomorrow traders will look at Services PMI data. The forecast is positive. If the actual data is greater than the forecast, the pair will move further. Otherwise, the pair will return to the pivot point at 1.33.

The Australian dollar highly increased based on the positive economic data.

AUD/USD managed to break the 50-day MA and the resistance near 0.76. The next aim to break is the downward trendline at 0.7640. Tomorrow traders should take into consideration the RBA meeting at 7:30 MT time. A change of the interest rate is not anticipated, however, investors can get clues on the future monetary policy of the central bank. Current account data will be released tomorrow as well (4:30 MT time). The forecast is encouraging, so if the actual data is greater than the forecast, the aussie will have chances to go further. Next resistances are at 0.7640 and 0.7660. If the data isn’t encouraging, the support will lie at 0.7550.

Although other currencies managed to appreciate against the weak US dollar, the Japanese yen is continuing to lose points against the US currency. USD/JPY tested 109.70 (the 50.0 Fibo level and 100-week MA). However, there are chances for the yen as trade wars are on the horizon. On weekends, U.S. Commerce Secretary and Chinese Vice Premier met. There were no fresh trade deal announcements from the meeting. Moreover, China press warns trade deal will be off if the US imposes tariffs. If trade wars tensions increase, the USD/JPY pair will fall to the support at 108.50 (38.2 Fibo level and 50-day MA).

No encouraging news for the oil market. Although OPEC countries met on the weekend and decided to continue cooperation with non-OPEC allies on the output cuts program, oil remains under pressure. Earlier, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced their willingness to increase the oil supply. The main meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC allies is scheduled for the end of June. Moreover, US production sets new records.

Brent is under the pivot point at $76.65. If it manages to close above the pivot point, there are odds it will go up. Otherwise, the further fall is anticipated. The support lies at $74.60.

WTI is falling as well. The resistance lies at $66.60. The support is at $65.20. The trading is not extensive. The further movement will depend on the news.

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