Trial and tribulation in the south, triumph up north

It has been a significant week in rugby across both hemispheres. While the members of SANZAAR sat down to ponder the future of Super Rugby in the south, England finally climbed off their plateau and began the ascent from ‘base camp two’ towards the top of the mountain in the north.

Australian teams again failed to beat their opponents from South Africa and New Zealand in Round 2, but England rediscovered their mojo in a 61-21 demolition of injury-hit Scotland, underlining their superiority in Europe with a second consecutive Six Nations win.

Next week promises a momentous climax in both hemispheres.

By the end of the week we will know the plans for the new format of Super Rugby, and whether the cuts to Australian and South African representation, hinted at in Spiro’s Monday article, have come to pass.

By late on Saturday afternoon, we will know whether England has been good enough to break the All Blacks’ record of 18 consecutive international wins by beating Ireland in Dublin.

Australian rugby is under pressure to pick the right pathway, both internally and externally. Its own structures, both domestically and within the frame provided by Super Rugby, have to be spot on. At the same time, at Wallaby level it has to be in a position to keep up with the Joneses – not just the All Blacks across the Tasman, but now with Eddie and his cohorts across the other side of the world.

The good news is that there are some signs of life.

The Reds flashed brief glimpses of huge potential against the Crusaders in a game they should have comfortably wrapped up by halftime. Chances are that they will put it all together and land a big right hand on an unwitting opponent sometime over the next few rounds of the competition.

The Queenslanders remain Australia’s best hope of achieving success in the long haul, but they may also turn out to be Michael Cheika’s best hope of improving Wallaby fortunes.

The Reds are the one team in Australia possessing a kicking game anywhere near international standard. The inside trio of Nick Frisby, Quade Cooper and Duncan Paia’aua managed to control the quality of kick-return ball available to the Crusaders for most of the first hour of the match.

It was only in the final quarter that the kick-chase began to break down and offer the Canterbury outfit genuine returning opportunities – the lifeblood of all New Zealand teams.

If Australia wants to keep pace with England, let alone the All Blacks, this development of their kicking game will be essential over the course of 2017.

In their game against Scotland, the unmistakable tokens of the ‘winning mentality’ that have been built up in the Red Rose mindset were all back in place. Most impressive of all was the accuracy of the set-piece moves from the lineout, which England used to establish their unassailable halftime lead.

Set-piece nuance and accuracy in the back-line are not qualities traditionally associated with England sides, and this is where Eddie Jones’ coaching has probably had the most positive impact of all – just as it did with the World Cup-winning Springboks of 2007.

England is now a consistent threat to score from the first phase, and this new development has catapulted them ahead of the other Northern Hemisphere nations.

England scored three tries directly from lineouts in between the Scotland 22 and the halfway line. It became clear that they had identified the defensive seam between the two Scottish centres, Alex Dunbar and Huw Jones, as a primary area of attack.

Lineout attack #1 – 2:04-2:18
The first try occurred with Scotland hooker Fraser Brown off the field, for a yellow card after a tip-tackle on Elliott Daly. As we shall see, Brown is a key component of Scotland’s lineout defence and his absence was important.

Brown would normally be filling the space in between the Scotland No.7 Hamish Watson and scrum-half Ali Price (see the replay from behind the posts at 2:43) – a ten-metre gap which slows up the Scotland backline slide across field further out.

England accentuate both the gap and the momentary hesitation it causes by faking a lineout drive to pull the other Scottish forwards in and shifting their own No.9, Ben Youngs, one space out so that he is on Watson’s outside shoulder at 2:42.

With Owen Farrell’s angled run fixing the Scotland fly-half Finn Russell, England has what they really want as the second pass is made – a match-up between George Ford (with his ball-handling) and Jonathan Joseph (with his footwork in traffic) against and the two Scotland centres.

Ford passes early and then wraps around Joseph, which pulls the eyes of Huw Jones outwards towards the far touch, leaving Joseph and Dunbar in a man-on-man contest. With Dunbar fractionally late to leave, Joseph’s feet do the rest.

It is a moment with potential Lions’ significance, because it may have cost Dunbar his chance of a place on the plane to New Zealand, and booked Joseph a seat instead.

Lineout attack #2 – 23:52-24:08
The attention to detail in the set-up for England’s lineout attacks is perhaps where Jones’ influence is most apparent.

As the set-piece forms at 23:54, England’s No.8 Nathan Hughes moves into midfield, with Hamish Watson shifting into the space between No.10 Russell and inside centre Dunbar to mark him.

Brown, now back on the field, is held at the front of the line by Youngs’ positioning there. This means the ‘tail-gunner’ spot around the end of the lineout is now vacant.

In American football this is called ‘formationing’ the opponent – you adopt a formation which creates a new weakness as the defence tries to adjust to it.

With England again taking ball from the back of the lineout to accent the weakness, at 24:27 on the replay, the big gap between the main group of Scotland forwards and the first back defender, Russell, is clearly visible.

Brown is nowhere near the play as Farrell goes to make the pass at 24:27, which means that Russell has to turn in towards him and Watson has to stop for Hughes. At 24:28, England have the same basic situation as in the first example – Ford and Joseph running at the space between two Scotland centres on the back foot.

Joseph glides through the gap and the defender closest to him in coverage, who simply fails to get close enough to make the tackle. That defender? None other than Brown!

Lineout attack #3 – 34:43-34:55
In the final example, Brown is restored to his natural position as tail-gunner, which means he can easily get out on to the England first receiver, Ford, at 35:17.

However, Russell unaccountably decides to rush straight upfield at Ford in the 10 channel rather than drifting off onto Farrell, and Watson again has to stop for Hughes.

At 35:19, the same basic scenario we have already witnessed in the previous two examples has been repeated. The two Scotland centres are faced by an England receiver plus Joseph, with England blindside wing Anthony Watson as a bonus attacker.

Joseph again takes the gap outside Dunbar and Brown is again a couple of strides too late in cover defence – the only difference is that Joseph decides to give Watson a flavour of the try-line on this occasion.

Summary
The England-Scotland match will not have done the chances of the Scotland midfield being selected for the Lions tour of New Zealand any good at all. It would not be surprising to see both Alex Dunbar and Finn Russell slip out of contention as a result, with the England axis of Ford-Farrell-Joseph advancing to become automatic choices, alongside Johnny Sexton and Jonathan Davies.

However, Scotland will in all likelihood beat Italy in the final round of the Six Nations to achieve their first winning record in the tournament since 2006, and that is a worthy achievement.

England will seek to overtake the All Blacks’ 18-match winning streak in what promises to be an emotional cauldron in Dublin. Ireland have shown their ability to produce exceptional one-off performances recently, and they will be looking to end their season on a high in the last international showcase before Lions selection is finalised.

Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, a significant portion of the future of Australian rugby is being decided by SANZAAR.

Will five Super Rugby teams become four? Will the Reds emerge as the leading standard-bearers for Australian success over the coming months?

As the old Irish proverb phrases it, with typically dark humour, “Don’t worry… it’s always darkest just before it goes pitch-black!”

Nicholas Bishop

Nick Bishop has worked as a rugby analyst and advisor to Graham Henry (1999-2003), Mike Ruddock (2004-2005) and most recently Stuart Lancaster (2011-2015). He also worked on the 2001 British & Irish Lions tour to Australia and produced his first rugby book with Graham Henry at the end of the tour. Three more rugby books have followed, all of which of have either been nominated for or won national sports book awards. Nick's latest is a biography of Phil Larder, the first top Rugby League coach to successfully transfer over to Union, entitled The Iron Curtain. He is currently writing articles for The Roar and The Rugby Site, and working as a strategy consultant to Stuart Lancaster and the Leinster coaching staff for their European matches.

The Crowd Says (249)

Sate Francaise players go into strike because of the “merger” with Racing 92. Do you think that something similar can happen in Australia if SANZAAR finally decides to cut one of the teams from SR competition?

Ironic that after creating so many jobs in French rugby the wealthy benefactors are beginning to rationalize with mergers like high street banks… I’d say it was a sign of the fickleness of private ownership. but it looks like the ARU are going to do something similar!

I think if an Aussie side it to be cut which my all accounts seems likely, then the ARU have to start pushing for a proper merger, not just one that might happen by default.

The ARU delegates have the power to veto any changes and if they don’t it might be construed as that they are sitting on their hands doing nothing. They have the Brumbies, the most successful Aussie side in Super Rugby, they have the Rebels under private ownership which will cost heaps to unravel commitments, and they have the Force whose supporters have parted with their hard earned to maintain a side in the West.

So I guess we will know in a few days but the response from the ARU will also be interesting.

Yes RT, if it does happen the ARU have to look after the needs of the players, and above all keep them in Australia. If a significant number move overseas, the aim of strengthening the remaining four teams will have been lost.

Maybe the Paris merger offers hope on this front – if two clubs with such rich history and very wealthy benefactors have been forced to merge, it suggest that French owners may be finally coming to their senses…

Those lineout plays were absolutely sublime. Has the world gone mad? What has happened that we now turn to England for sublime and smart backline plays executed with skill and at pace?!? It is truly the end of days.

Good question Nicholas, and a much better one if England fly in on the weekend, as I and probably most will start with an England 23, and go from there, replacing only those who are not only better, but are ‘clearly’ better than their English counterpart.

The risk being that the further the side goes numerically away from a record equalling or winning side the more its heart and engine gets tampered with.

Will have a little ponder on that one, but it sure makes the selections interesting and how the press, social media and fans across the 4N approach the squad make up will start revving up from Sunday when the 6N winds up…all eyes will start looking at the Lions….brrrrrrrr….getting chilly?

Good question Nicholas, and a much better one if England fly in on the weekend, as I and probably most will start with an England 23, and go from there, replacing only those who are not only better, but are ‘clearly’ better than their English counterpart.

A nice start point T-man, though things rarely turn out that simple – with new coaches, new gameplan, crammed tour schedule. It will be complicated!

I know, that’s the beauty of the Lions concept. By its very design it can be self defeating.

One could look at it this way. Would England defeat NZ in NZ over three tests?

If the answer is a fairly confident yes, why wouldn’t you pick the entire English squad? They were close to winning tests in 2014, and are a better side than that.

They have found ways to win 18 times in a row where if they win this weekend no other first tier side can match them in the history of the game. They are ‘in the zone’.

Logically…why would you tamper with that? Why would you change it unless you knew 100% that any changes would make them a better side. And how would you prove that? On tour when it’s too late?

Since then NZ has lost so much leadership and have not replaced the midfield to the same levels of consistency.

How mamy of the non England selections will be to appease the masses, to convince people that the Lions are fully representative of the four nations?

Think of it this way. NZ get to tour the UK and play England in a three test series. But this time they’re allowed to select players from NZ, SA or Aust.

Sure NZ is currently considerably more able than either, but so is England over the other three, perhaps to a lesser extent.

But it would take a lot of convincing to replace any All Black with an outsider, and not just because of the talent gap, but because of the need to bring the player so quickly up to speed with the AB way. In such a short timeframe, it couldn’t be done, and the more non ABs, the tougher if gets.

Take the ABs intact and you know you have 100% of the culture, what makes them successful.

Same must apply to England, and what it’s built up over the last year. Take a hybrid side…and who knows?

This English side is better than any Lions Side I’ve seen since probably the 70’s.

One of the most impressive things about this current England side is their ability to stay in games and win them when playing poorly.

I think it is far to say that against Australia and the first 3 games of the 6N they had 40 minute spells where they were less than impressive but there is a new resolve in this side, as well as better execution, and they are finding ways to win, the mark of a good side.

Darwin, teams like England are consistently criticised for not playing teams like Fiji. England do it and instead they’re dodging the ABs. Nice one mate.
If there are going to be 4 matches in the Autumn internationals, I hope moving forward that one of those matches is reserved for teams like Fiji, Tonga, Georgia etc.
The whole no England v AB thing is down to money, simple as that.

That’s not what I’m saying … the RU have said that… they don’t need to negotiate with NZ on fee splits because they can fill twickers playing anyone … NZ have taken the attitude of that’s fine we will play elsewhere

Last year they could not agree on money for Test outside the regular window, so England played the Wallabies instead. This year it appears that both teams are dodging each other, they just don’t want to play each other during a Lions year.
Personally I do hope they schedule double header next year,

In all fairness Samuel, they are worth three big ones. It is the AB’s after all. I have no problem with that they command a higher fee than any other team (they are a given sell out anywhere in the world almost, they are the best team in the world and have you ever heard about a union – bar Samoa – that have lost money while hosting the AB’s?).
RFU’s coffers are full, the stadium is free, pay up and give all English fans exactly what they want this year.

Hi NV, whilst I certainly can’t speak for all England fans, personally I’m happy to wait until 2018 for the next meeting with the ABs. We live in an instant gratification society these days and the value of patience seems to have gone the way of Betamax, VHS and soon enough DVDs. I remember in a pre satellite TV and pre Internet era that the ABs were like a mythical beast, you’d heard all the stories, but you weren’t sure if your Dad was just pulling your leg or actually telling the truth. Seeing your team, in my case England, play the ABs was a rare and treasured thing, witnessing the Haka, all of it, It was special.
Now I’m not saying that it’s not special anymore, it’s just not as special and whilst I wouldn’t say that familiarity breeds contempt in this instance, you can certainly have too much of a good thing.
I’m sure that we all have something that we worked/saved for as a kid. For me, it was a stack system HiFi. I worked for it and I saved for it and eventually I had enough money to buy it and do you know what?! I still have it, over 25 years later. It was one of the few things that came with me when I moved to Oz. My point is that it still means something to me all these years later and I reckon it’s due to the value I placed on it having worked and saved so hard for it. I like to think waiting a bit longer to see an England vs ABs match is going to be worth it too.

If England players do end up dominating Lions selection, their performance this summer will have a big impact on subsequent clashes between England and the AB’s. Heavy defeats/victories may leave a lot of scar tissue, or reinforce self-belief.

When you put it like that, how can I disagree JimmyB? I understand what you are saying completely and it is beautiful.
Still thinking both of us would smile if we were to read news about a November Test this year 🙂

Thanks again. What I liked most about those set plays was the purpose and conviction with which they were executed. Despite a few close matches where things hadn’t quite come together, England clearly had plentiful confidence and self belief lurking just below the surface.

Focus on these midfield moves also had the effect of straightening their attack up, whereas against Wales they directed too much play towards the sidelines.

Despite the impressive backline finishing, I still think their best in this 6N have been Launchbury and Lawes. With Itoje and Hughes/Vunipola, that’s a really imposing physical presence, all of them with high work rates too.

And despite Ireland being out of the 6N picture, I’m really looking forward to seeing how England handles this higher level of intensity.

It will be interesting to see what they do when George Kruis gets back to fitness Geoff – cannot see how Launchbury can be dropped now so it will be between Kruis and Lawes providing they don’t shift Itoje back to second row when Chris Robshaw gets back.

yep understand ‘off the side’ was more of expression of playing 6 rather than repeating myself, but have still thought his general defence playing a little wider in general play has been less than accurate this series, certainly not up to efforts when playing a little tighter

It was a move I suggested to EJ at the end of my involvement with England H’lander. England have no shortage of high quality locks, so moving Itoje to 6 gives you a very hard core of big mobile forwards in the back five. I don’t see him as a weak defender because he has such great range for a big man.

I agree that Itoje appeared to be finding his feet at six at the first rounds of 6N. But that was in a brand new England back row. And despite all that Picamoles and Warburton threw at him he was not outperformed over 80 minutes. Against Italy he seemed to be the only England player that was not confused a bit by Italy’s tactics. Against Scotland he could easily been man of the match (if not Joseph been so freakish). I say he is doing alright at six. And I am getting more and more curious about him at seven. That kind of size, speed and athleticism combined with his competitive attitude could be the tonic for England’s seven long term.

Since Picamoles actually took the trouble to lose weight and get really fit, he has been tremendous. Before that, we always used to try and catch him defending in space, because he defended like a poor tight forward in those situations.

I recall Cowboy Shaw walking around the hotel foyer in Wellington slightly inebriated after the second test in 1981, at about 3.00AM swinging his famous left hook muttering and cursing how he was going to get Little Flippie in the next test – cant say I recall him managing that 🙂 Little Flippie weighed in at around 21 stone in those days…

England has a backline looking more polished as they progress. The assumption that Eddie has wished to have either Ford or Farrell at 5/8 and two rampaging centres may instead be substituted by a “slick” ball playing backline, always very dangerous even at the first phase, as you point out Nick.

The big question is whether Farrell is good enough to transform himself into a great inside centre rather than a man playing out of position due to his goal kicking. Time will tell. It is possible that England will beat that mighty kiwi side. Who wooda thunked it?

It is painful to even think about Aussie rugby. Last year the gap to kiwi rugby widened and this year “the creek” has become what the map tells us, the Tasman Sea. Now SA too are leaving us in their wake.

If the ARU cut a side there will be turmoil in the player ranks, a target regional market disenfranchised and another step towards Australian rugby power being lost, maybe forever. We should not assume that it can’t happen. There is no foundation and the house of Aussie rugby is falling over. Things a dire. Just like a Sunderland supporter’s prospects.i
I like that Irish proverb though!

I suspect Owen Farrell is already an excellent 12 even though 10 comes more naturally to him Lost. Will be fascinating to see how the Lions view it. WG may have to overcome a few ingrained prejudices about what a 10 should look like and select George Ford.

Hard to know what to say about Australian rugby right now. Cutting a team is harsh medicine indeed, but the patient is dead as he is with the current structure.

I read something about Farrell’s centre play – don’t remember where – that made a lot of sense. The writer compared him – in some ways – to Conrad Smith. With Farrell you have this brain and glue in the middle of the park that hardly ever makes mistakes.

And with multiple playmakers- with safe soft hands – in the backs, the odds are good that the whole back line will shine at game time, hence making other players – both playing and looking – better.
With players like Hogg, North (if in prime), L Williams, Joseph, Henshaw, Daly, Watson is a tempting prospect. AB’s better be ready a first phase 😉

Quite remarkable that Europe’s best ten ten also has established himself as the best number twelve also. Anyone doubting his abilities can not have seen him play the last 18 months.

So give us so inside on Owen NB 🙂 He comes through as a guy who is obsessed with rugby – in that regard is a comparison with McCaw farfetched? Almost like selling their souls to the game. Obsessed. Was Owen a keen student during your video reviews? How deep is his tactical rugby intellect? 🙂

He’s a quick study NV, always looking to improve his game – and a natural leader. I think the outstanding feature is that what he learns is linked to a bulletproof mentality… so what he learns tends to get on the field quickly and stay put. You can’t say that of every international player.

Great article and viewpoints here but Whooa there horsey, the man love for the English backs performance is a little OTT IMHO. Yes they contstructed some nice 1st phase tries. However the Scottish centres defended like a hung over subbies pairing on a Sunday morning…the gap that Joseph strolled through for the first try you could have driven a bus through. Not saying they don’t deserve praise – they do – but let’s see how they go against the Irish defence…and AB defence before we continue the cartwheels.

I was living in Australia in 2003. Rugby was on a high because of the RWC. It was the time the ARU should have put super rugby on free to air to grow the sport. Instead short term money kept it in pay to view. They failed to grow rugby at a critical time in their rugby history. It is just a minor sport on an obscure sports channel. No one watches it no kids will start playing it etc….huge opportunity lost and that is why they are in decline.