One of the world’s most respected scientific journals says U.S. President Barack Obama should focus on coal-gorging power and utility companies in the United States, instead of appeasing environmentalists by turning down the Keystone XL pipeline.

“Regarding the Keystone pipeline, the administration should face down critics of the project, ensure that environmental standards are met and then approve it,” Nature said in an editorial on its website.

After a six-year campaign by green activists to brand them as a climate change villain, two major decisions will either validate the campaign against the oil sands or rehabilitate their reputation are expected this spring: U.S. president Barack Obama’s ruling on the proposed Keystone XL oil sands pipeline, and a European Union vote on whether to label the oil sands as more polluting than other oils in its Fuel Quality Directive.

The U.S. decision is expected around the end of March, the EU is expected to rule around June.

The decisions will open or close markets, help fix or entrench the deep discounting of Canada’s oil because of insufficient pipeline capacity and uncertainty about future markets, show how far jurisdictions are prepared to go to shape — and shame? — others’ economic choices and environmental standards in the name of the climate.

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“In the context of continued and expanded market access, [the two policy decisions] are critically important,” Cal Dallas, Alberta’s minister of international and intergovernmental relations, said in an interview Wednesday.

Mr. Dallas has been at the forefront of an intense Alberta government effort to win international support for Canada’s vast oil resources, and is optimistic about both scenarios.

In Europe, “we had very good discussions,” he said. “And I think that once there is a good understanding of the kinds of initiatives that are happening in Alberta with respect to both mitigating the impacts of the entire development but also our commitments around greenhouse gases … the conversation is very productive.”

As for the United States, “while there is plenty of speculation in either direction with regard to the Keystone application, I haven’t seen or heard anything that would cause me to be pessimistic about that,” he said.

While slow at the beginning to counter the anti-oil sands campaign, Alberta has reached far and wide in Europe to promote a re-think of its ranking of the oil sands as more polluting than other oil imports. Environment minister Diana McQueen recently met with 34 ministries, directors and Canadian diplomats in Berlin, Madrid, Lisbon, Paris and Brussels, while Mr. Dallas has visited key stakeholders in Dublin, Bucharest, Munich, Budapest and Rome.

The Fuel Quality Directive, implemented in 2009, aims to reduce greenhouse gases from transport fuels. It assigns the oil sands a value of 107 grams of carbon dioxide-equivalent per megajoule of fuel, compared to 87.5 grams for the average crude oil.

Mr. Dallas said Alberta has asked the EU to take into account advances being made to reduce the oil sands’ environmental impacts and to get the straight goods about other oils it imports – including polluting practices like flaring and methane releases.

In the U.S., Alberta’s outreach has extended to legislators in Congress and in the Senate, the State Department, states, municipalities, business leaders, and associations, Mr. Dallas said.

But oil sands critics are also feeling pretty good about their anti-oil sands campaign.

Reuters reported Wednesday that the European Commission is not convinced by Canada’s claims and is sticking to its plans to label fuel from the oil sands as highly polluting.

In the U.S., environmentalists are buoyed by the confirmation this week of climate champion John Kerry as Secretary of State, and by President Obama’s renewed commitment to fight climate change in his inaugural address.

Canada doesn’t export oil to Europe — but it could if plans for pipelines to the East Coast move forward. Europe’s decision is important because it sets a precedent that could be copied by others. Canada exports almost all its oil to the U.S., and another rejection of Keystone XL would make it hard and costly to increase shipments above current levels.

Mr. Dallas wouldn’t discuss the consequence of one or both jurisdictions taking stands against the oil sands. If that’s what is coming, Canada will have its own tough choices to make about trading partners and allies.