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In Syria, rebel defeat marks 'end of revolution'

As regime forces take over the birthplace of the country's revolution, experts have described it as the "end of the Syrian revolution." What was once known as the "moderate opposition" has all but disappeared in Syria.

Losing Deraa marks a significant blow to Syria's rebel movement. While under previous surrender deals, opposition fighters unwilling to make peace with the government would be transferred to Idlib, their last bastion in the country, this time regime negotiators have reportedly rejected such a compromise, a sign of how Damascus views its newfound position.

"Deraa is the end of the Syrian revolution," Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and editor of Syria Comment blog, told DW.

"All of Syria's remaining 'independent' rebel militias are in the southeast. Once they are dismantled, the only region where rebel militias will hold sway is in the north … But the militias that hold sway in the north are under direct US and Turkish control."

In June 2011, opposition to the regime of President Bashar Assad culminated in the founding of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), bringing together military officers who defected from the armed forces and rebel groups willing to take up arms against the state. In its infancy, the FSA was widely seen as the armed "moderate opposition" in Syria.

"The end of the armed opposition has been in the works for at least the past three years in my view, if not longer," Yezid Sayigh, senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told DW.

"Any doubts on this score should have been dispelled following their major losses of eastern Aleppo and eastern Ghouta, and in light of their continuing inability to take advantage of the [Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces'] expansion and US deployment in other parts of Syria in order to rebuild or regain some initiative."

Indeed, the fractured rebel movement has been unable to fend off the regime's latest offensives, aside from in Idlib in northern Syria, where experienced militant groups such as the al-Qaida-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have effectively taken control.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

War with no end

Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The dictator

Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The northern watchman

Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. The Turkish military has intervened alongside rebels in northern Aleppo, Afrin and Idlib province.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The eastern guardian

The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The western allies

A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The rebels

The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The resistance

Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The new jihadists

"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is facing defeat in both countries after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The old jihadists

IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The Persian shadow

Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.

Author: Elizabeth Schumacher, Alexander Pearson

Turkey's last stand

But all is not finished for Syria's rebels. Turkey remains a crucial partner for armed opposition groups in Syria, including what has now become the FSA.

In northern Syria, Turkey-backed FSA rebels captured Kurdish-held Afrin earlier this year in an operation that threatened to cause a further deterioration in relations between Ankara and Washington, its military ally and fellow NATO member. The US has backed the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the fight against IS. Turkey considers its own presence in Syria crucial for its security.

"The north will be a very different battle. Assad has promised to take back every inch of Syrian soil. He will want to push the tens of thousands of rebel soldiers who have collected in Idlib province into Turkey, along with their families," Landis told DW.

Even given the hard-line nature of rebels groups in Idlib, Turkey is unlikely to give way to a regime offensive in the province.

"Turkey will not accept this. The dominant militias are hard-bitten jihadists," Landis said. "Already Turkey has set up over 10 'observation' posts in Idlib that are manned by Turkish soldiers with heavy equipment."

As such, Turkey is also trying to guarantee the rebels it backs still have a place at the negotiating table when it comes time for a peace process. But for many, the "moderate opposition" that rose up on the wave of popular revolts across the region has all but disappeared.