“That one can convince one’s opponents with printed reasons, I have not believed since the year 1764. It is not for that purpose that I have taken up my pen, but rather merely to annoy them, and to give strength and courage to those on our side, and to make it known to the others that they have not convinced us.”
G.C. Lichtenberg (1742 – 1799), courtesy of 'Deogolwulf'

China

Thursday, 10 August 2017

Well, there's plenty of the 'stoopid' to go round as this North Korean farce approaches tragedy. Oddly enough, the stupidity of 'Fat Boy Kim' is at least understandable given that he is surrounded by a bunch of nutters dressed as Generals but with so many medals pinned to them that they can barely walk:

As one witty commentator put it, you could defeat that lot with a magnet! Even so, 'Fat Boy Kim' will be uneasily aware that anyone of those murderous loonies would be more than ready, willing and able to bump him off if it gives them a chance for the top job.

Then there is the 'stoopidity' of 'The Donald' who seems to be incapable of either speaking or tweeting without first engaging what passes for his brain. The situation 'over there' appears to be that we must all rely on American Generals to gently lead 'The Donald' to the 'quiet room' whilst they try to work out a policy. My faith in the intelligence of Generals, American or any other nationality come to that, is exceedingly limited.

Meanwhile, the 'Chinkie-chonks' who rather like to give off that air of quiet, inscrutable wisdom seem to have totally lost control of their own puppet - how dumb is that? So now we seem to have a situation in which a loony puppet is pulling the strings of its own puppet-master!

What can I say, except 'stand by for incoming'!

ADDITIONAL: That clever-clogs, Fraser Nelson, shows why he is editor of The Spectator and not me! He suggests in The Telegraph that far from Trump being too belligerent, his team are letting it be known in Chinese circles that if 'Fat Boy Kim' pushes too hard the USA will simply pick up its toys and go home which would result in every neighbouring nation arming themselves to the teeth ready to take on North Korea. Sounds a bit subtle to me but who knows?

Friday, 04 August 2017

For some time now I have been aware of ominous signs - and please note the plural form. Each taken singularly would produce my usual shrug of the shoulders and a muttered, "What will be, will be". After all, I have lived through sundry disasters which, whilst being a bloody nuisance at the time, eventually sank into the past and life went on. Also, I must confess that being elderly and therefore lacking that natural swagger the young enjoy it may just be that I am feeling my frailty. Even so, and allowing for the tricks that memory plays especially when you have decades of the damned things to remember, it seems to me that Shakespeare's line was exceedingly apt, "When troubles come, they come not single spies but in battalions". Or to put it another way, for most of my life it was just one damn thing after another but today we might get the lot in one big hit!

Today I fear there is a gathering of various "troubles" any one of which could be disastrous but if they arrive all together the result could be cataclysmic. The leader in this week's Spectator confirms my worst fears. It seems obvious even to an economic illiterate like me that this government simply lacks the guts and even the knowledge to face up to the advancing financial tsunami. I was no fan of George Osborne as Chancellor but he did make an effort to cut the eye-watering over-spend of his government with the eventual aim of reducing government borrowing. He never achieved it but, dammit, he tried. Today, it seems to me that they are making no efforts at all and because many of the big nations are in a similar fix then sooner or later, I suspect sooner, this gigantic 'Ponzi scheme' will collapse under its own weight of borrowing and wreak havoc.

Then there is America! Since WWII it has been a bulwark in world affairs. It's power might not always have been exercised wisely but by and large it was on the side of the angels and stood up to the powers of absolute evil. But that was enabled because it had a functioning government. Today, under Trump, the government of the USA is 'walking wounded' and, alas, many (but not all) of the wounds are self-inflicted. Over at the NRO, 'The Kraut', with his usual wisdom, seeks to comfort us by suggesting that whilst Trump is a self-inflicted stress test, the fundamentals of the American constitution are, just, holding up under the strain. I hope he's right but it seems to me from 'over here' that America is in turmoil and there is still nearly four years of it to go. Not, I hasten to add, that 'the madness of King Trump' is the sole cause. The Democrat party and their lickspittles in the media have, if possible, gone even madder! Where will it end? I don't know but I fear for America.

Needless to say, a divided and distracted America leaves the global playing field wide open to those nations eager to rule over it. Increasingly China flexes its not inconsiderable muscles, followed by all the 'wannabe' bully boys like Russia, North Korea and Iran. And yes, you're right, 'it's being so cheerful as keeps me so young!' In the meantime, I must just finish digging that hole in the sand ready for my head!

Monday, 24 July 2017

An excellent article at The American Spectator by J. T. Young - and no, me neither! However, Mr. Young (I assume he's a 'Mr') takes a long, cool look at the China problem - and boy, do they have a problem! It must have seemed like a brilliant, 'get out of jail free' move when the post-Mao Chinese government decided to embrace capitalism and free themselves from the stultifying grip of the State. Not so much 'let my people be free' as 'let some of my really greedy people be free' so that they can make 'ga-zillions' from which we, the government, will scoop off the cream. What could go wrong?

There is, of course, always a stress frontier between governments and business but at least in a democracy the governments change regularly shifting from the economic Right to the Left and then back again. Similarly, a (fairly) independent judiciary, so to speak, holds the ring. Not perfect but what is in this messy world? Alas, in China the game is well and truly fixed and the result, at the end, will be tumultuous.

I have been forecasting troubles for China for years on this blog but still their grand 'Ponzi scheme' keeps forging ahead but, as Mr. Young indicates, it cannot go on for ever. Sooner or later, either capitalism must prevail or, more likely, government will, at which point China will revert to being the biggest prison camp in the world. Needless to say the dim, dumb and blind partisans of the Left will blame capitalism for the failure despite the self-evident fact that the Chinese government pulls every string in their so-called 'market economy'.

Given their recent history I have a very real sympathy for the ordinary Chinese who have, after centuries of repression and poverty, at last begun to see and taste the fruits, and what a disaster if they are snatched away.

Saturday, 08 July 2017

There are some problems in this world which do not give me a moment's pause - the square root of -1, for example. Absolutely no problem with that because even a nano-second's worth of thought tells me that if live to be 200 I will still fail to even understand the question, let alone the answer! The same applies to the current question bedevilling geo-strategists around the world - what do we do about 'Fat Boy Kim' and his pestilential country?

Happily, all I have to do is turn to my guru, Charles Krauthammer, and he provides the answer - honestly, everyone should have a Krauthammer in their cupboard! As he points out there is absolutely no chance - that's nil, never, no chance! - of China (let alone Russia) doing anything to thwart Fat Boy's nuclear ambitions. Anyone who still believes that fairy-tale is still living in Obamaland!

So the question remains, what are we, or to be precise, the Americans, going to do? 'The Kraut' suggests that returning the tactical nuclear missiles removed from South Korea in 1991 would concentrate minds in Beijing. Also, given their mutual past history, encouraging the Japanese to develop their own nuclear missile system would cause considerable buttock-clenching in China. Would they think it worthwhile to let North Korea have its own missile system if the result was a Japanese counterpart?

Today he confirmed my own, very faint, hopes that perhaps - just perhaps - 'The Donald' might not be as bad as I had feared.

With near unanimity, my Never Trump friends confess a sense of relief. It could have been worse. They thought it would be worse. A deep apprehension still endures but the international order remains intact, the republic still stands, and no “enemy of the people” has (yet) been arrested. Admittedly, this is a low bar. And this is not to deny the insanity, incoherence, and sheer weirdness emanating daily from the White House, for which we’ve all come up with our own coping technique.

My 'coping technique' is to keep on digging my nuclear fall-out shelter in my garden! Even so, 'The Kraut' is right, so far nothing totally horrendous has occurred and it occurred to me the other day that perhaps - just perhaps - 'The Donald' really is learning on the job. In any event, 'The Kraut' advises us all to just watch the results so far achieved:

And so far they hang together enough — Neil Gorsuch, Keystone XL, NATO reassurances, Syria strike, cabinet appointments — that one can begin to talk plausibly about the normalization of this presidency.

See, hope springs eternal and all that sort of thing! But then, he produces a bucket of ice-cold water and poured it all over me. He reminds me that Trump is determined to face down 'Fat Boy Kim' and is busy building an alliance of both friends and (shall we say) not-so-much-friends, like China which has, according to some reports, begun to turn the economic screws on North Korea. At the same time he is offering the South Koreans a missile screen to help their defences but then, at the last minute, he tells them the invoice is, so to speak, 'in the post'. Cue: 'shlock-horror' in Seoul where there is a presidential election taking place, one of the candidates being anti-American and not too ill-disposed to his fellow Koreans in the north!

'The Kraut' poses a horror-inducing scenario to us all - what happens when the red telephone rings in the White House at three in the morning? His solution is to say let it ring and forward the call to Defence Secretary Mattis! Hardly encouraging, Charles!

Friday, 21 April 2017

Alas, I suspect not because I do not imagine 'The Don' to be that much of a reader which is a pity because today, over at the NRO, 'The Kraut' takes a long, hard and cool look at some of the underlying realities behind the imbroglio with 'Fat Boy Kim'.

First of all he emphasises that it is very definitely not just an American problem. The Chinese must know, particularly in this new Trumpian age which is so very different from the lacklustre, limp-wristed reign of 'Obama the Wet', that the USA will simply not allow North Korea to develop ICBMs capable of taking out America cities. The choice facing the Chinese is simple, they can do something about the North Korean regime or sit back and watch South Korea and Japan build up their missile systems which need not necessarily be aimed at North Korea alone! Or, they can watch and wait for the USA to strike which will kick off an almighty war of destruction all across the entire region and bring their economy to its knees.

'The Kraut' suggests, very shrewdly, that America could help the Chinese to act in their own self interest by offering to abjure any notion of Korean unification so long as the Chinese get rid of 'Fat Boy Kim' and any of his 'thugocracy' of similar mind. They can keep their so-called 'workers paradise' puppets in Pyongyang just so long as they ensure that it is Chinese hands pulling the strings.

Monday, 03 April 2017

As 'The Donald' will learn - er, he will learn, will he not? - this political lark is a damn sight more complicated than a really complicated thing! Poor Mr. Xi, the latter-day emperor of China, has two nutters to deal with as a matter of urgency. First there is 'Fat Boy Kim' who is hell bent on wrecking his toy cupboard as well as his country and, if necessary, the world. Then there is 'The Donald' who does totally unpredictable better than anyone. Of course, if Mr. Xi was as clever as he likes to pretend he is behind his inscrutable mask, he would have arranged a quiet assassination of 'Fat Boy' years ago and saved himself and his country and everyone else a lot of bother.

Alas, I suspect that Mr. Xi is not quite as secure in his presidential office as he might hope. His anti-American militarism no doubt pleases his General Staff who are almost certainly as stupid as most General Staffs throughout the ages, but letting a loon like 'Fat Boy' lead him by the nose is really dumb, and now that America is run by a man whose strategic decision-making is decided by which side of the bed he gets out from each morning leaves him in an all too real example of an 'unknown-unknown' situation! The Chinese are tremendous businessmen and so it is certain that Mr. Xi understands that the Chinese economy is balanced on one leg and any sort of major global explosion will bring it crashing down. If that happens, not only will the Generals be displeased but the 'People' (dread word!) will be incensed.

Tuesday, 21 March 2017

Hitherto, I have, rather naively, believed - perhaps 'hoped' is a better word - that the Chinese dictator, Xi Jinping, was the archetypal 'wily oriental gentleman' which I know leads to the acronym 'WOG' but which I think of as a compliment not an insult. Like just about everyone, including our much vaunted Intelligence Services, I haven't a clue what it going on in the highest political circles in China. As a corporate body, they succeed in looking even more impassive than the waxworks at Madame Tussauds. Thus, one is reduced to dependence on their deeds in order to work out their aims and objectives which is a bit dodgy given that we, by which I mean the West, can only re-act rather than forestall. Of course, we can estimate with a fair degree of accuracy that in general terms what the Chinese want is to rule the world, thus it was and always will be for great global powers but it would be useful to know the details of each little step on the way in order to give them pause.

Adding enormously to the uncertainties is their half-mad puppet, 'Fat Boy Kim', and his concentration camp country, North Korea. 'Fat Boy Kim' is the political equivalent of Jack Nicholson in 'The Shining', sort of predictable in that you know he's going to do something dreadful but you can't be sure exactly when and how!

Kim Jongun Jack Nicholson

Today, of course, we have another 'known unknown' ingredient in the bubbling pot - 'The Donald'! I suppose the only good thing is that Trump's unpredictability in which it is possible for him to say, or tweet, or (heavens to Betsy!) actually do, can actually, and frequently does, change by the hour. So perhaps it is President Xi Jinping who is the most worried.

If so, then in the words of the great historians, Sellars & Yeatman, that "Is a Good Thing!"

Thursday, 19 January 2017

I am happy to report that Alice is alive and well and living in the wonderland of China! According to reports at Zero Hedge, the China Meteorological Administration has ordered its various local bureaus not to issue smog warnings without permission from central government. Apparently, the people (dread words!) are revolting! For some reason the ingrates forget all the benefits bestowed on them by a generous government and instead, as they blindly flounder, coughing and choking through smog-filled streets, they start complaining.

So, henceforth there will be no smog in China except when the boss of the China Meteorological Administration can't find his way to the office, er, because of the smog!

Wednesday, 18 January 2017

It's true that from time to time the very distinguished host of this exemplary blog, er, that's me, by the way, issues forth a load of old cobblers. It's very rare, never happens more than, well, say, every other day but still the good parts are really-really good, honestly! One of them has been my frequent assertions over the years that all Chinese economic data should not be taken with a pinch of salt but with the entire contents of the salt mine!

City and county governments in the north-western region [of Liaoning] committed fiscal data fraud in the period [2011-2014], Governor Chen Qiufa said at a meeting with provincial lawmakers Tuesday, according to state-run People’s Daily. Fiscal revenues were inflated by at least 20 percent, and some other economic data were also false, the paper said, without specifying categories.

Chen said the data were made up because officials wanted to advance their careers. The fraud misled the central government’s judgment of Liaoning’s economic status, he said, citing a report from the National Audit Office in 2016.

The city of Shenyang in Liaoning province of China. Photographer: Doug Kanter/Bloomberg

One question instantly leaps to mind - who knows the Chinese for 'whodathunkit'? A witty commenter at Zero Hedge suggested the news item should be re-titled as "Wi Kuk Buks". In further reports at Bloomberg:

Liaoning has seen an unprecedented purge of more than 500 deputies from its legislature. The deputies were implicated in vote buying and bribery in the first provincial-level case of its kind in the Communist Party’s almost seven-decade rule, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. Former provincial party chief Wang Min, who led Liaoning from 2009 until 2015, was earlier expelled following corruption allegations by China’s top anti-graft watchdog.

Meanwhile, of course, the People's Government of the People's Republic of China carries on gassing to death with smog, er, the People, actually!

Friday, 13 January 2017

If you followed my instructions - well, of course you did! - and took out a subscription for The Spectator, then cancel it immediately! Dammit, I'm a man who clings to his prejudices most of which are faithfully reproduced in 'The Speccie', so it has been a really 'shlock-horror' moment for me today to read an article at The Coffee House by Ross Clark which urges me to embrace and support a notion which has 'Greenie' written all over it!

I refer to this bonkers idea of building a multi-zillion-trillion tidal barrier across Swansea Bay which has just received the support of some expert who was tasked with investigating the pros and cons. Apparently, the idea is that as the tide goes in and out it will turn some turbines which will produce electricity - yeeeeeeeeeeees, quite! Of course, just one such tidal barrier will not suffice, it requires a whole string of them along a coastline because those wretched, inconsiderate tides do not come in and go out at the same time but several of them linked together will provide power all the time.

Oddly enough, I do not recall hearing or seeing hordes of frantic 'Greenies' demonstrating in favour of these tidal machines. Mr. Clark explains that in fact their opposition to them is growing because 'all the little fishies will be hurt' and those long-legged birds that peck at mud will lose their mudflats. Suddenly, I feel better about the whole idea! Not that I have anything against little fishies and birdies but simply because anything that the Greenies don't like - I love!

Of course, in line with that immutable law which states that there is no such thing as a free lunch, these 'fish-mincers' will cost a fortune which will just add to the pile of money already committed to that Sino-French atomic power station which, in my opinion, will never work and likely will never even be built! But what do I care? I'll be long dead before either of these madcap schemes comes to fruition so the likes of 'SoD' can pay for it all! His generation can keep themselves warm the old-fashioned way by burning Greenies at the stake!

Sunday, 08 January 2017

Ben Riley-Smith, their deputy political editor, does his best to clarify what looks like one of those old London fogs we used to enjoy and which, we all suspected, emanated mostly from Whitehall! The essence of Mrs. May's message is that she wants to interfere, here, there and everywhere. That would be OK if she confined herself to just making the trains run on time - or even just run at all! Instead we have this:

“People who are just managing - just getting by - don’t need a government that will get out of the way. They need an active government that will step up and champion the things that matter to them,” she says.

When was the last time she was ever in a Saloon bar? Take any pub in the country and the occupants of the Saloon bar couldn't even agree on what the weather was like outside. I may have to migrate to 'Trumpland'!

Britain goes to war with, er, China, actually: Well, at least it will all be over very, very quickly! It is suggested by Mr. Michael Peck in The National Interest, er, that's the American national interest by the way! He reports that the British ambassador to the USA, Kim Darroch, has said that the two British aircraft carriers, when they are built and assuming they actually work, will be despatched to the Pacific to keep those damned Chinks in order! Well, he didn't quite put it like that but that's the general idea and one can only assume that he picked it up from Her Maj's Lords of the Admiralty after they had enjoyed a particularly rum-fuelled dinner - well, you know what sailors are like! I can't remember exactly how many zillion quid those 'floating targets' cost, probably because I do not want to remember! My guess is that they will not even last as long as the doomed battleship Prince of Wales and the battlecruiser Repulse who were 'the useless gesture' we made in 1941.

And then there's the American junk that goes with them: In the last few days I have read, not one but two, separate articles urging President Trump to cancel the entire F-35 fighter/bomber programme. Both Mike Fredenburg in The National Review and David Archibald at The American Thinker agree that it is the most eye-wateringly expensive piece of junk ever foisted on the corrupt and 'stoopid' Defence Department in Washington and we, of course, would have to pay through the nose if we buy any of them. Bring back the Fairy Swordfish, I say, it's cheap, it's reliable and it works, er, well, it used to!

Jolly spiffin' good show, chaps!

"Here's a health unto Her Majesty": Excellent news that 'Her Maj' was well enough to attend church this morning after a long and worrying pause.

She's hit the nail on the head - again: The (alas, only potential because she never answers my letters) mother of my new children, Ms. Janet Daly, has a superb piece in the Telegraph today. Being a former American Left-wing radical in her youth, she understands the Left better than most. Here's a taster in which she nails the pathetic belief of the Left that despite their recent disasters on both sides of the pond all they have to do is wait for the older, conservative generation to die off:

You don’t just grow old, you grow up – or most of us do. Jeremy Corbyn is a notable exception to this. With late maturity comes an appreciation of all those things for which you had so little time in impatient youth and self-regarding middle age.

For example, the bonds of a cohesive neighbourhood and nation with all the expectations of shared identity and mutual understanding which come with them. For the sake of my oblivious liberal friends, can I repeat for the umpteenth time: to value these things, as older people are more likely to do, is not, in itself, bigoted.

Friday, 06 January 2017

Given that laughable haircut and his fat chops face, I can only assume there are no mirrors permitted inside whatever ghastly, nouveau riche palace within which he resides. Even so, whilst all he lacks is a red nose to complete the clown effect, he is rapidly acquiring the where-withal to wipe the smiles of our faces - or perhaps I should have written 'the faces off our smiles'! The man is a very definite nuclear menace.

The problem is easier stated than dealt with. He claims, and why would we not believe him, that North Korea will successfully test an ICBM. They have, after all, put two satellites into orbit and successfully exploded several nuclear bombs. So what do we, by which I mean, of course, the Americans, do about it? Cue: my mind boggling! However, thankfully I can always borrow 'The Kraut's' (aka: Charles Krauthammer] mind which is infinitely larger than mine. In the WaPo he analyses five different but equally fraught possibilities.

1: A pre-emptive attack on the missile launching centres: Exceedingly dangerous given the huge army poised to over-run South Korea. Is America prepared to fight another war in SE Asia? 'The Kraut' thinks not.

2: Shoot down the test ICBM: That could, or at least, should, be possible for America to do but the same risk of a North Korean invasion still holds good.

3: Return tactical U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea: Apparently they used to have them until 1991 when George H. W. Bush withdrew them after reaching an agreement with Gorbachev. But would it be adding fuel to the possible fire?

4: Economic arm-twisting on China: It looks as though Trump is happy to do that irrespective of North Korea but the Chinese are increasing puffed up with nationalistic pride and they might re-act badly.

5: Strategic arm-twisting on China: Start dropping hints that if China fails to halt North Korean nuclear activities then the USA might reconsider allowing Japan to have nuclear weapons. That would certainly concentrate Chinese minds in Beijing!

My only suggestion to solve this unbelievably dangerous imbroglio is to ask Hollywood to intervene. Surely they could put together a hit squad of unbelievably 'super heroes', perhaps led by Clint Eastwood - yes, I know he's getting on but would you give him an argument? Apart from that I have no further useful ideas. What about you?

Thursday, 29 December 2016

Now look, before I start this is not a scholarly summary of events in the Pacific from Pearl Harbour to Hiroshima. I am, as most of you know, patently unfit for such a task, not just because I am unqualified as a scholar but also because I have always treated the war in the Pacific in much the same way as I have treated the land war in Europe between 1914 and 1918 - I have mostly ignored them because they are simply too, too boring! To be fair, the first six weeks in 1914 are riveting, as indeed are the first six months in the Pacific in 1941/2 but after that both campaigns slumped into a seemingly never-ending and bloody-beyond-belief slugfest!

As you will have guessed I have nearly finished my duty-read of Ronald Spector's detailed, very detailed, history called Eagle against the Sun. For me, it confirms what I recall from earlier studies that far too many of the 'top brass', American, Japanese and Allied, were totally unfit for purpose! In fact, many of them, given the monstrous casualties that arose as a result of their crass, egotistical stupidities deserved to be court-martialled and shot! From Adm. King, the man in command of the entire US Navy, and downward they seemed to concentrate their main energies and such brainpower as they possessed on 'fighting' each other rather than the enemy.

The strategic decision to divide American forces into two separate and competing commands for an advance across the Pacific was almost criminally stupid. The utterly feeble and mostly useless efforts of the British commanders in India and Burma (with the later exception of Gen. Slim) are, in retrospect, a total embarrassment. American gullibility in its dealings with that master rogue and conman, Chiang Kai Shek, almost defies belief and confirms their own self-assessment of being 'innocents abroad'. As for the Japanese so-called High Command, their crass stupidity almost makes the Allies look rather intelligent! Their arrogant refusal to face unpleasant facts is summed up neatly in David Bergamini's fascinating book Japan's Imperial Conspiracy. The Japanese Lord Privy Seal, Kido, waited two full days before telling the Emperor of the utter disaster which had struck Japan at Midway and in his diary he noted:

"I was very much impressed by the courage displayed by His Majesty today and I was thankful that our country is blessed with such a good sovereign."

David Bergamini summed it up thus:

Hirohito had lost. Kido knew that he knew it. But, on Kido's advice, he would not admit it for another three years.

How many people perished in those three years? So let Hirohito stand, primus inter pares, as an exempler of one of the greatest collections of dunderheads, fools, knaves and incompetents the world has ever seen!

ADDITIONAL: In retrospect, not one of the clearest, most elegantly composed of my posts - and I heard that! - but the whole wretched subject makes me furious and almost incoherent - sorry!

Tuesday, 27 December 2016

This blog prides itself on being well and truly behind on all the news. Older readers may well put that down to our dismal record in forecasting future events which have put us at about the same level of accuracy as the astrology column in your local newspaper! However, as the New Year approaches I think I can say with some slight confidence that it will be, um, interesting! Yes, you see, that's the sort of keen, analytical foresight you have come to expect from this distinguished blog!

Obviously, the first and far and away the most important question is - what will President Trump actually do? Er, yes, quite, anyway, moving on . . . waddya mean I haven't answered the question?! Look, even Donald Trump doesn't know the answer to that one, so how should I know? Your guess is as good as mine! Maybe he has a well thought out, detailed plan of action, or may be he just tosses a coin, or maybe it depends on which side of the bed he slept the night before. Who knows? My guess is that the world's leaders don't have a clue either and possibly that might make them tread very, very carefully before they make any sudden moves.

Meanwhile, 'over here' we have a leader who is equally as mysterious. 'St. Theresa of May' has been in power for six months and still we have no idea as to which direction she will steer us. As far as I can see there have been no decisions about anything. She is the 'say nothing, do nothing' mistress of infinite stillness! So why is it that I feel we are living in an ominous calm before a storm? The only solace is that I suspect the 'Sturm und Drang', when it comes, will originate 'just over there' in Europe which, if it is severe enough, could save us Brits a lot of bother because there will not actually be an EU for us to Brexit from!

Meanwhile, as the Chinese continue to swell up like a balloon with self-induced delusions of grandeur, they should beware a prick from the White House - and I've told you before, I do the jokes round here! Either that, or they might find internal leaks let their hot air escape even faster than their currency is disappearing! Even a slight lowering of living standards amongst a population of zillions of hopefuls could cause enormous problems to the Party.

Closer to home, we will need to watch that other great swaggerer, 'Vlad the Impaler', as he struts his stuff round the edges of Eastern Europe. He, of course, will be delighted to pick up any of the detritus that is left lying around after the EU breaks up. Similarly, there are going to be some exceedingly nasty people arising in different European countries as they emulate us Brits in expressing their disgust with those Euro-fanatics whose gross stupidity and arrogance has helped to bring the EU into total disrespect.

Sunday, 18 December 2016

That creepy coincidence thing all over again: Lying in bed this morning I heard on the news that some distinguished quack called Heimlich had died. Apparently he had invented something which subsequently was named after him as 'the Heimlich manoeuvre'. Still being half asleep I assumed it was some sort of devilish clever tank manoeuvre invented by a German general in WWII! Later, as I woke up properly I realised that Heimlich was actually a doctor and the 'manoeuvre' referred to was a means by which people choking to death could be saved. Anyway, an hour later, sitting here before my computer composing the breathless prose that delights you all - and I heard that! - I took a swig of tea which instantly went down the wrong hole. Cue: Duff flailing around desperately, crashing into the furniture whilst attempting to get some air into my lungs without drowning in tea. Damn, how I wished I knew that Heimlich manoeuvre!

A bit of seasonal Shakespeare: I was reminded of this yesterday and also it reminded me that I used to print the occasional poem on this blog for your delight and edification - sorry, did you say something? Anyway, as this one is sort of seasonal being wintery and keeps referring to "green holly" I thought it appropriate. Also, as it contains some bitter recriminations concerning human nature it will appeal to all you Christmas grumps who can't wait for the season of goodwill to be over!

Blow, blow, thou winter wind,

Thou art not so unkind

As man’s ingratitude;

Thy tooth is not so keen,

Because thou art not seen,

Although thy breath be rude.

Heigh-ho! sing, heigh-ho! unto the green holly:

Most friendship is feigning, most loving mere folly:

Then, heigh-ho, the holly!

This life is most jolly.

Freeze, freeze, thou bitter sky,

That dost not bite so nigh

As benefits forgot:

Though thou the waters warp,

Thy sting is not so sharp

As friend remembered not.

Heigh-ho! sing, heigh-ho! unto the green holly...

The Trump tsunami: They should have cancelled Christmas in the Chanceries of the world and kept all those policy wonks at their desks trying to figure out how the world will change under President Trump. I still don't think there is a full - or even slight - realisation of the way the world will move for all of us. Ted Belman at The American Thinker provides a few clues and if even half of them come to pass then it will be exceedingly gulp-inducive! NATO could virtually disappear because it costs the USA a fortune and it is virtually useless for combatting terrorism which Trump sees as the main threat. Chinese arrogance is likely to suffer some bruises, in fact, it has already begun with Trump's telephone chat with the Taiwanese president. 'Vlad the Impaler' could become Donald's (and thus America's) NBF - New Best Friend. The Palestinians need to get real because Trump is hacked off with the whole Israeli/Palestinian imbroglio and he believes, apparently, that the formerly soft, neutral line followed by Obama merely encouraged Palestinian intransigence. Amongst the first things he might do is recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel by moving the American embassy there. There is more, according to Mr. Belman so read his article and then start digging in!

GDDS - the latest affliction on Mankind: Er, well, to be exact, not

exactly the whole of Mankind just the dimwits who support the Democrat

party because this serious affliction is Galloping Democrat Dysfunctional

Syndrome in which the sufferers (who sniggered?) thrash around

helplessly blaming everyone and their uncles for Hillary's defeat.

Apparently, 'it woz the Russians wot dunnit', or if not them, then that 'dirty

rat' who runs the FBI, or, of course, it was the 'meedja', er, even if roughly

Saturday, 26 November 2016

Alas, with all my domestic duties rehousing an elderly relative, I lack the energy to undertake one of my rigorous, analytical assessments of current affairs - and I heard that snort! - so you will just have to put up with me taking a ramble through the political undergrowth.

First of all, this is the year that keeps on giving. First Brexit, then, not so much Trump winning but the Dems losing BIGTIME and today yet another murderous, evil and stupid thug breathes his last. The celebrations in Florida by Cuban exiles says it all. Not, I hasten to add, although I am no expert, that the USA ever seemed to handle the Cuban situation particularly well. In fact, I suspect that one of the few tributes Obama deserves during his pathetic administration is his decision to call off 'the dogs of war' between the two countries. Needless to say, the Castro criminal family will continue to 'strut their stuff', supported as they are by all the other gangster leaders around them, but the obvious truth is that Cuba can do no great harm to America, particularly as their economy sinks further into the 'brown stuff'. (Of course, all bets are off if the Chinese make the hideous mistake of trying to emulate the late, unlamented Khrushchev!)

Returning to 'this septic Isle', I sense an increase in uneasiness with regard to St. Theresa of May. It has nothing to do with what she stands for but is more to do with the fact that no-one seems to know exactly what it is she stands for. I don't just mean her aims in the Brexit negotiations, she is entirely right to keep those particular cards close to he chest, but it is in the rest of her political programme (if one exists!) that one looks, in vain, for some clarity of purpose. There really is no excuse because she is in a position of incredible political power with the Labour party marching resolutely into oblivion, the il-Lib-non-Dems virtually non-existent and the Scots Nats being shown up as mere blowhards for anti-English sentiment but with absolutely no idea of a future because even if they break the Union, the EU wouldn't touch them with a barge-pole! So, Mrs. May, take a long Christmas break, get your mind sorted, work out a programme, whip your cabinet into line (preferably by sacking one or two of them pour encourager les autres) and start the New Year with a bang!

Turning to Europe, my feelings are mixed. If by 'Europeans' one means your average Hans or Pierre or Bianca or Isabella, I wish them all well and hope that their continent thrives because who the hell wants noisy, fighting neighbours? Alas, as the all too clear fault-lines grow wider and wider in the 50-odd year, great, man-made contrivance which grips them ever tighter, I fear for their future. Frankly, I blame that Corsican thug, Bonaparte, whose evil stupidity was unleashed on the continent by force of arms and which has led inexorably to two centuries of almost non-stop war and revolution. Laws no longer evolve slowly, over centuries, after due consideration and testing in different circumstances, instead they are laid down from on high with virtually no consideration of local circumstances - ask any Greek! If next year is as auspicious as this one, then the Berlin-Brussels axis will be broken, hopefully, beyond repair.

Of course, there will be problems. There will be some considerable 'downs' as well as 'ups', there always have been, that's 'the nature of the beast'. And it's all a jolly good thing because without it I wouldn't have anything to bore on about, don't you agree? Sorry, didn't quite catch that . . .

Tuesday, 15 November 2016

China was, is and will forever be, a confusing place. For a start there are dozens of different languages and dialects even if they share exactly the same characteristic, that is, being totally incomprehensible to everyone else! It's a bit like living down here in 'Zummerzet'! However, according to Ms. Lucy Hornby, the FT correspondent in Beijing (what the hell happened to Peking?), an edict has been issued insisting that everyone, male or female and irrespective of rank, must henceforth be addressed as 'comrade'.

Apparently, that damned infuriating thing called 'human nature' has re-asserted itself over recent years despite being banned by the Party and thus more and more of the boss-class have been giving themselves fancy titles. Even worse or perhaps better - give us a kiss and I'll tell you! - the homosexual community has taken over the term 'comrade' as a means of identifying themselves to each other. The polit-bureau was shocked, I tell you, shocked! Anyway, the government have rushed out a policy document entitled "Norms of political life within the party under current conditions". Perhaps that sounds a bit more exciting in Chinese. Mr. Xi, the 'Boss Man of all Boss Men', is designated in this document as the "core" of the party. Whether that is hard "core" or not, I do not know until I have mastered Mandarin.

Anyway, good luck to them because if it stops them sliding into the ludicrous situation we have here where every crooked, useless Tom, Dick or Harry ends up in the House of Lords they will have done well!

Thursday, 03 November 2016

I posted on the subject of Obama's domestic legacy yesterday and today I turn, with even more uncertainty, to his foreign policy. I stress the uncertainty because I have read enough history books to know that the complexity of foreign affairs is of such magnitude as to frequently fool the active participants themselves, let alone passing commentators like myself. Even so, certain specific acts of foreign policy have been made by Obama and with the preceding caveat in mind I think we are free to comment.

First, there is his policy 'south of the border' in which the main move has been to bring to an end the deep freeze in American-Cuba relations. I am happy to be contradicted by those with greater knowledge (plenty of them!) but it seems to me to have been a sensible move. The Castro crime family is reaching its end and even were it to continue in some other guise I can see no advantage in the continuation of a 'cold war' that serves no useful purpose. If the President was to freeze relations with every cruel and crooked tyrant in the world then the State Department could be cut by 90% - yes, I know, not entirely a bad thing! The sad fact is that Cuba, like Venezuela and others will continue on the path of Marxist socialism which, of course, is merely a cloak for power-mad regimes to keep control, but in the end their people will erupt. By maintaining 'friendly' relations, at least the people will not blame the Americans for their plight.

Next, God help me, I move to the Middle East. The entire region is a fester-pot of incredible complexity in which it is impossible to pick sides, or at least winning sides. At least, and very sensibly, Obama has kept American boots off the ground and has mainly confined himself to using stand-off air power mainly against IS which, in contrast to other factions is a clear and obvious menace to the West. In addition he has aided other factions to fight IS but probably he realises that in the end there can be no certainty as to who comes out on top and what their nature will be. In about a hundred years the books will come out to explain it all but in the meantime I think he is right to keep America at a distance.

Finally, on to the real menace in world affairs - China! There is no doubt that sooner or later China will move to demonstrate its very real power. Probably they will begin by enforcing their claim on jurisdiction over the South China Sea. This absolutely and definitely has to be resisted even to the point of war - in my opinion speaking as an ex-Corporal! This will be a problem not for Obama but for his successor. Unfortunately, he or she(!) will already be on a back-foot because the Philippines under the leadership of another mouth-dribbling thug has decided to take a violently anti-American stance. No doubt Chinese gold played its part in that particular volte-face and we can expect similar 'persuasion' to be applied to other nations in the region. It may well be that the next American President will have to resort to economic 'warfare' against China before they send in the carriers. Chine's economy is brittle to say the least and it will be a tempting target.

So, all in all, I think Obama's 'do little' policy has been about right and definitely preferable to some previous Presidents. What follows, I cannot say, but I tremble, sir, I tremble!

Sunday, 18 September 2016

Another Potemkin village: In this modern age Russian leaders, unlike their 18th century predecessors such as Prince Potemkin, no longer build fake villages to disguise the slum reality but old habits die hard. Thus, today we have the Russian general election which should, of course, be called the Russian re-election because the result is a foregone conclusion. Say what you like about the Barnum & Bailey circus that is the American election but at least it is what it purports to be, a free choice for the voters. I would offer you a link to the story but none of the 'prints' are even bothering to report on it.

I stand, sort of, ready to do my duty: News today that 44% of single Japanese ladies between the ages of 18 to 34 are virgins. I know, shockin', shockin', but as a proper English gent I am poised to do my duty if and when called upon and surely it can only be a matter of time before the summons arrives.

Perhaps the il-Lib-non-Dems aren't all bad: I make that tentative suggestion because the chairman of the Cheltenham branch - yes, Cheltenham! - has suggested that young 'gals' leaving school should consider sex work as a possible career move. Well, I used to do the same as I drove slowly past Sherborne 'gals' school as the young 'fillies' came out, well, I used to until the local constabulary warned me off!

Mayor 'de Blathero' is a prat: I refer, of course, to 'Hizzoner' Mayor Bill de Blasio of 'Noo Yawk' who insists that an exploding bomb device which wounded 29 people, plus another which failed to go off, were deliberate acts but neither of them had any connection to terrorism. Oh, I see, your Honour, ya mean it was just a sort of joke! Where do they find these people?!

This is the house that 'Jaques' built: The other woman in my life - but don't tell the 'Memsahib'! - is, of course, Ms. Janet Daly and today in The Telegraph she eviscerates the unbelievably stupid, bordering on insane, activities of 'Junck the Drunk' and his fellow Brussels apparatchiks. No doubt over the next couple of years our governmental Brexiteers will make their fair share of errors of judgment but they will be as nothing compared to the folies de grandeur likely to be perpetrated by the fanatical 'Junck the Drunk'. Reading it, and perhaps confusing 'Junck' with 'Jaques' (Delors) who preceded him, I kept thinking of that old British nursery rhyme This Is the House that Jack Built:

China heading for velly big crash: And alas, when it happens the collateral damage will be immense. Like most of you, I guess, I know virtually nothing about global economics but everything I read gives me the 'heebie-jeebies'. I have mentioned before, 'many a time and oft'', that I do not believe a single statistic issued by the Chinese government. However, as A E-P points out in The Telegraph, we should take note of the alarum bells ringing, the klaxon sirens hooting and the red flags being hoisted by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).

China has failed to curb excesses in its credit system and faces mounting risks of a full-blown banking crisis, according to early warning indicators released by the world’s top financial watchdog.

A key gauge of credit vulnerability is now three times over the danger threshold and has continued to deteriorate, despite pledges by Chinese premier Li Keqiang to wean the economy off debt-driven growth before it is too late.

The Bank for International Settlements warned in its quarterly report that China’s "credit to GDP gap" has reached 30.1, the highest to date and in a different league altogether from any other major country tracked by the institution. It is also significantly higher than the scores in East Asia's speculative boom on 1997 or in the US subprime bubble before the Lehman crisis.

The miraculous increase in prosperity for 'zillions' or ordinary Chinese has been pumped up by lax credit controls. The Communist Party of China is in sole charge and if that 'prosperity' vanishes - so will it - and it will not be pretty!

Dave's final 'obit' from Peter Hitchens:

So, Mr Slippery has finally slipped away, just before he was found out. I wish David Cameron lots of money in his future life, so much of it that he at last begins to wonder if that is what he really wanted. But can we pause for a moment and ask how it was that this charming but pointless person rose to such prominence in our country?

Oh dear, 'quelle domage', never mind!I haven't looked at Der Spiegel for some time but today I honoured them with a visit! If we Brits might face some problems during our Brexit, it is nothing compared to what the 'Euros' will suffer:

In 2015, the study found, Britain was in second place [in net payments into the EU budget]: The British paid 12.7 billion euros more than they got back from the EU. By comparison, Germany paid 15.6 billion. The paper also determined that the British paid more into the EU per capita than Germany did that year. "After this country's withdrawal from the EU, this net amount will have to be redistributed among the other member states," writes CEP report author Matthias Kullas. "The other major net payers -- especially Germany, France and Italy -- will be facing significant additional costs."

Poor old 'Junck the Drunk' might have to start paying for his own drinks!

Thursday, 15 September 2016

Honestly, that sexy Theresa is such a tease! First it's a 'yes', then it's a 'no', then it's 'maybe' and now it's 'yes' again. Meanwhile the nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point are reaching boiling point and the danger of imminent and premature ejaculation is high! The French are racing round in circles unsure as to whether to shout about les méchants Anglais or sing 'God Save the Queen'! They'd like l' argent, of course, but they also wonder whether the cheque will bounce when things go wrong - and they will definitely and absolutely go wrong because they always do, dear! Meanwhile, the Chinese do what they do best and remain inscrutable! Actually, that's not really true because they are the noisiest, most temperamental people on earth but these national images are hard to remove.

To be honest, this blog, as most of you know, has an almost never-ending stock of opinions on absolutely everything but, on the rights and wrongs, the ups and downs, the ifs, buts and maybes of the Hinkley Point nuclear power station, alas, this blog is struck dumb, er, mainly because it is dumb! I have listened to several 'wiseacres' on the radio this morning arguing for and against and all I can do is turn slow circles with unfocused eyes and my mouth hanging open with a huge question mark hovering overhead. I do have some genuine sympathy for those forced to take a final decision and I thank the Lord it is not me. The only certainty is that it will be the wrong decision!

Still, there is one shaft of sunlight piercing the gloom, I'll probably be dead before the final bill is presented so the ghostly chuckle you youngsters will eventually hear will emanate from me!

Wednesday, 07 September 2016

I often wonder what good comes out of all those huge international 'gabfests' apart from all the hot air inflating the egos of those concerned. I suppose that the most one can say is that from time to time you get a glimpse of the reality behind the polite grimaces smiles of the international Great and Good (and the not so good, and the bad, and the downright evil).

For example, there were a couple of small incidents aimed at the Americans when Chinese officials suddenly erupted into shouty fury and insisting that 'this was their country!' By the small things shall you know them! The Communist Party of China is a massive, corrupt, self-perpetuating criminal mob with delusions of grandeur, not too dissimilar from Hitler's old gang. I do understand that the Chinese nation has a history of 'cruel and unusual punishment' meted out to them over the centuries by other nations but they should also recognise that part of their former weakness arose from their own corrupt and useless leaders. Also, they should recognise that perhaps the greatest single cruelty inflicted on them was from the 'beloved' Chairman Mao!

Anyway, it is now clear that there is an extreme element of nationalism rife throughout the Chinese government which will soon be seeking means to express itself, almost certainly beginning in the South China Sea. It is a sobering thought that the next POTUS will either be an ignorant, loudmouthed buffoon or a sick, corrupt, old lady, both of whom are at risk of facing criminal indictments. My advice to the American people - Oi! I heard that! - is that they should spend some time studying the pros and cons of the vice-presidential candidates!

Monday, 29 August 2016

Well, it begins next week, actually, once this boring-snoring Summer holiday season ends. Perhaps the most fascinating matter of interest between now and Christmas will be how 'St. Theresa of May' steers the ship of state. Early indications are good but, of course, 'there's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip'. The first, and therefor cautious, impression is that she is a woman who knows where she wants to go and how to get there. It may be that her chosen course might not be agreeable to everyone but if she steers with care and competence and drive then that is "A Good Thing" in itself.

Of course, she will be aided immensely by Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition who, instead of holding her to account, appear to be totally distracted by what can only be described as student politics. Having chosen one elderly dementia-sufferer to compete for the leadership, they have now chosen a childish retard to oppose him. What a choice! And, of course, once the choice is made, "There will be blood", not Tory blood but Labour blood. Still, it's not all bad, after all, red is their favourite colour!

Meanwhile, 'over there', they are about to start the final laps of the 'Presidential Grand Prix'. Trump, of course, suffers from the fact that he steers the car whilst facing backwards but is somewhat assisted by his opponent who veers from side to side depending on how much the latest 'zillionaire' deposits in the Clinton Foundation! The result will be a massive crash whichever one of them wins. 'Still 'n' all', as they say 'over there', those nice Chinese will be eager to help pick up the pieces!

And talking of crashes, those of a ghoul-like nature, can watch with delight and fascination as that man-made construct, the European (dis)Union, disintegrates under the pressure of - and given its origins I do love this phrase - 'it's own internal contradictions'. There is nothing to compete with the folly of men dazzled with 'Big Ideas'.

So, plenty to look forward to and of course you will be able to read all about it here at D&N!

Tuesday, 09 August 2016

If there was ever any doubt as to the wisdom of St. Theresa's decision to delay and think hard on whether we should accept zillions from the Chinese to build a French nuclear plant then the Chinese ambassador to London just settled it. Apparently, he has written to The Times (I think) saying, in effect, if you don't accept this kind and generous loan then "there may be troubles ahead"! My immediate response was to mutter, "Bring it on" but then I thought twice (hard work for me these days!) and instead I am deeply grateful. Now we can see at first hand the iron fist inside this velvet Chinese glove and the thought of that ghastly country and the gangsters who run it having a knife to our throat by access to the computer systems that run our energy systems is frightening. Only those two dim, posh boys would have fallen for it but now, thanks to all you brave Brexiteers, they are history, or to be precise, historical footnotes.

(Just a note to say that the 'Memsahib' and I are on an outing today so I apologise for not being able to join the conversation in the comments to the posts below.)

Saturday, 30 July 2016

If any of you see a sexual connotation in my title then you are all very naughty boys and girls! As always on this high-minded blog, I am referring to political matters, to be precise, American political matters. Quite why I bother I do not know given that I do not have a vote and it's not my country. But, dammit, it looms large in the world and has done since 1917. Even so, today there are distinct signs of shrinkage occurring and quite what that entails I do not know, except that it will almost certainly mean trouble.

Anyway, in my dream world I do have a vote and in this presidential election year I keep swinging between one and t'other. I am 77 years old and I cannot remember two such utterly inadequate candidates. There have been some single buffoons, one remembers with a shudder the hopeless and hapless Jimmy Carter, but I can't recall two nincompoops trying for the top job at the same time. Mind you, it is only this 'internet-thingie' in the last ten years that has allowed us foreigners to see the American political process up close and personal!

For the past few weeks I have been smashed this way and that like a shuttlecock in a badminton match. First, the ghastly Trump gives me a swipe and I am sent at speed across the net into Hillary's arms (dread thought!), then she opens her mouth wider than the Mersey Tunnel and I flee back to 'The Donald' praying that he is not really as dumb as he looks and sounds. It's like one of those really bad dreams that keep repeating and repeating.

In the meantime, the Chinese remain calm - and inscrutable! - and from the depths of the Kremlin a menacing chuckle can be heard echoing through the chambers. The once great European powers, ruled as they are by an unelected, drunken ex-prime minister of Luxembourg, confine themselves to picking up sundry body parts supplied at regular intervals by a bunch of hairy maniacs who are, apparently, beyond control not least because, of course, they were actually invited in!

So, in these increasingly dangerous times, being a totally wet, effete European, I do what we have always done and look to America for help and support but all I can see 'over there' is a bouffanted buffoon and slimy crook with a huge mouth!

Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Well, that's a bit unfair to Mr. Riccardo Cocciani and his fellow students of War Studies at King's College, London who have recently 'gamed' the deteriorating situation in the South and East China Seas as they struggle to work out whether or not war is likely. Alas, they think it is!

Anyway, he has written an interesting piece in The Telegraphdescribing how he and his fellow students 'gamed' the situation which gradually went from bad to worse to 'worser'! Not the least of the ghastly outcomes, apart from war between China and the USA, was North Korea trying to take advantage of the situation by attacking Japan.

I'm not able to comment on the likelihood of their forecast coming true but I do hope the Grand Panjandrums in the very many different nations involved are really thinking through the pros and cons of future developments. Well, a man may hope may he not even if experience tells him otherwise!

Monday, 11 April 2016

But on the other hand, if the little perishers are playing up then just show them a photo of 'The Glorious Leader', that will soon put an end to their mischief.

Anyway, this is a sort of Good News/Bad News story. The Good News is that Fat Boy Kim might, just might, be on the way out. Hopefully, an enormous amount of blood, his blood, will be spilled in the process. According to Mr. Thomas Lifson at The American Thinker there has been a bit of an upsurge in North Korean officials 'doing a runner' to the nearest safe haven. The latest is a high ranking officer in Fat Boy Kim's elite Special Operations Force who, one would suppose, lives a fairly safe and prosperous life inside the regime.

But the squeeze is not just from the bottom up. Apparently, the Chinese are losing patience with Fat Boy and are applying real pressure from on high.

China recently embargoed North Korean coal exports to its power stations, the major source of foreign currency for the regime other than counterfeiting and drug dealing (in part via diplomatic pouches).

Saturday, 02 April 2016

My final words, you will be glad to hear, on the subject of President Obama's foreign policy as defined by Jeffrey Goldberg at The Atlantic. What struck me was the overwhelming concentration on Middle East affairs with only a brief mention of Sino-American tensions. Of course, this might be more to do with Mr. Goldberg's priorities than the President's. Whatever, in my opinion China and its satrap, North Korea, are far and away the most crucial area in foreign affairs today - and tomorrow and for decades into the future. It's impossible to deny that China is now a huge, and growing, world power. Like all such powers throughout history, having built the muscles, it wishes to flex them and restraining them from doing so too enthusiastically is going to be the Devil's own job.

The first test is going to be in the South China Sea and I was glad to see that Obama, despite his shrewd mistrust of his military hierarchy, authorised USN ships to sail though waters claimed, entirely spuriously, by the Chinese as their territorial waters. It was also good to read in Mr. Goldberg's article that the Obama administration was making great efforts to weave together as many of China's neighbours as it can to resist Chinese ambitions. If ever there was a problem that is going to test the next POTUS to the extremes it is going to be relations with China. It is going to take great intellectual ability and intelligence, some considerable courage and a lot of luck! Given the two front-runners for next year's presidency all I can say is good luck with that one!

Of course, fascinating though Mr. Goldberg's article was, the fact is that we will only be able to offer a preliminary judgment on President Obama in about 25 years. For a final assessment we will need to wait for the historians at the end of the century, to which I can only echo my old Jewish accountant, I should live so long, my life already!

ADDITIONAL: No sooner had I written the waffle above than I turned to 'The Kraut' whose latest essay is at The Telegraph. In it, he sums up the foreign policy attitudes of the four presidential front-runners. Read it - and start digging your shelters now!

Monday, 21 March 2016

If ever there was a living example of lunatics taking over an asylum then it surely has to be North Korea. All those pip-squeak generals with hats big enough to land a helicopter on and so many medals they are in danger of falling over in a high wind!

Then there is the Loony-in-Chief, 'Fat Boy Kim', whose attempts to sweep the world with a new hair-style fashion for men have proved to be about as successful as the late Yul Brynner!

According to James Rothwell in The Telegraph there are some exceedingly dangerous signals emanating from North Korea. Apparently 'the Dear Leader' has been incensed by recent military exercises undertaken by the South Koreans and the Americans. Apart from nuclear tests and sundry missiles being fired off into the sea, the North Koreans have threatened to bomb the official residence of the South Korean president and promising to "burn Manhattan down to the ashes."

All very alarming and I confess that it has been ringing some emergency bells in my head over recent months. However, the ultra cynical readers and commenters at the end of The Telegraph article will have none of it. All bluff and bluster, they say, nothing to worry about here, move along!

Sunday, 20 March 2016

Right, pay attention Australia! Now look here, Australia, it really is very inconvenient for me to have wake myself up at 4.00am in the morning in order to listen to the commentary on the Australian Grand Prix, so can you please wind your clocks forward, or backward, and get yourselves into a civilised timetable. Thank you!

Oh no, not the Air Cadets! A headline to a story in The Telegraph warned of cuts to the Air Cadet Force. I was shocked, I tell you, shocked because my first experience of the military was as a 13-year-old boy in my local Air Cadet unit. I remember going on Summer camp to an RAF air base and being told that because I was under 14 I could not be taken on my first ever flight in an old RAF Anson. I burst into tears and so the sergeant relented and let me go. Of course then I didn't know that later in life the bloody RAF would be throwing me out of their 'planes at 800 feet!

Is there a more 'boring-snoring' game than rugby? If there is, please tell me about it so that I can avoid it. I was forced to watch yesterday's 'Grand Slam decider' match between England and France because the 'Memsahib' insisted. I think she finds all those massive steroidal biceps and thighs rather exciting and later on as we are changing for bed I catch her sneering at my skinny slim physique. But, my God, what a bore the whole thing is and if I have to watch wrestling in mud then I'd much prefer it was topless ladies!

Oh no, the 'Yerdie-durbles' have let me down: I may have mentioned before, not least because old men tend to repeat themselves, that I am hooked on BBC4's Saturday night thriller programmes, especially those produced by the 'Yerdie-durbles', that is, the Scandinavians who produced the superlative series "The Killing". To be fair they have never quite matched that one but I remain faithful to the genre. Last week was the final episode of a murder mystery set in the arse-end of Iceland. To be frank, I didn't understand what the hell it was all about but I followed faithfully to the end mostly because of the horrid fascination of the setting. If you are thinking of holidaying in Iceland I suggest you take your meds and retire to bed until the feeling passes away! Anyway, last night's effort was from Denmark and it was pretty hopeless, convoluted plot to do with the windfarm business which is, apparently, big in Denmark. All very unconvincing so I am left with the problem of what to talk about with the 'Memsahib' over the next few empty Saturday nights!

Poor old 'Dick 2': Be warned, I am back in Shakespeare-mode so you can expect a steady stream of tedious posts on the subject of the late but not much lamented Richard II which I am working on as a possible production next year. By coincidence, this week's 'Speccie' has a book review of a new biography of the rascal who saw off poor old 'Dick 2'. The 'perp', of course, was that dreadful old bully, Bolingbroke, who having 'offed' Richard, became Henry IV and father to that great British hero, Henry V. Er, he was a hero, wasn't he? Oh no, say it ain't so! Anyway, the review is worth reading and I think I will also buy the book.

Better than House of Cards: Not that I have watched House of Cards, mind, but on the subject of history, I am still working my way through John Adamson's The Noble Revolt, his absolutely brilliant history of the aristocratic revolt against Charles I. Talk about power politics, this has everything. My admiration for the Earls of Warwick and Bedford is unbounded. Mind you, if you buy it, which I recommend, then buy it for your Kindle because the bloody thing weighs a ton in book form!

'The Glorified Ground Pounders': No sooner had I mentioned the appalling manners of the RAF in regularly throwing me out of the back of their 'planes than I came across a series of photos of members of the US 82nd Airborne suffering the same fate at the hands of the USAF. Honestly, what is it with these 'Fly Boys'?

Is anybody paying attention to China? I ask because via Drudge I have just read a Fox News report that China has a secret 'space station' deep in the heart of the Patagonian region of Argentina. It is run by the Chinese military who assure us that it is for the purposes of space exploration - yeeeeeeees, quite! Still, the full-time golfer currently occupying the White House doesn't seem bothered so why should I?

Pheeeew, what a corker! Just watched the penultimate episode of The Night Manager. Tense isn't the word. I'm exhausted - and I'm off to my bed.

Tuesday, 23 February 2016

Let me ask you a question: did you know that the Chinese have their strategic eyes on the Atlantic? No, nor me but they do and the Americans are handing it to them on a plate. But let me begin at the beginning. I am currently hooked on a 'Scandie' thriller on BBC4 set in Iceland called "Trapped". Part of the background is that the remote coastal town in which it is set has been approached by the Chinese who wish to build a brand new harbour there. Bit extravagant, I thought, but I concentrated on the murder mystery part of it and forgot the rest. In fact I have been mulling over the idea of writing a humorous post advising you all to see a psycho-babbler if you ever consider visiting Iceland because, based on this TV movie, it would be like taking a holiday in your deep freeze!

Anyway, moving further south, I was truly shocked to read at Commentarythat the Chinese are actively looking to take over a base on the Azores left virtually vacant by the departing American Air Force who believe it is surplus to their requirements. Have they gone completely mad? A Chinese base on the Azores, plus another in Iceland, will hand over the entire north Atlantic to Chinese control!

Sunday, 17 January 2016

Don't ever feel faint in Arkansas: As you know, my spies are everywhere in 'Arkieland' and so it did not take long for me to find out that an action for damages has been filed in the Sharp County Court by the family of a gentleman who was pronounced dead despite the doubts of the coroner. The unfortunate gentleman was shipped off to the undertakers and was about to be embalmed when it was discovered that he had a pulse rate of 30 beats a minute! Alas, he died - no, really, really died - the next day. Anyway, it serves to remind you of my oft-repeated wisdom that 'timing, as in sex and drumming and, er, death, is everything!'

And reports of my death are exaggerated: Mind you, I have felt like death warmed up ever since New Year's Day. My 'Man Flu' developed into a chest infection and I could have hawked and spat for Britain at the Olympics if asked. Today there are definite signs of improvement and I have asked the 'Memsahib' to delay the embalming!

It's that creepy coincidence thing - again: Apropos my earlier tale, the Memsahib, lying in bed reading a book - as is her wont - read me this extract from The Children Act by Ian McKewan. Two lawyers meet and one says to the other:

"I read a wonderful little exchange in Stephen Sedley's new book. Just your thing. It's from a Massachusetts trial. A rather insistent cross examiner asks a pathologist whether he can be absolutely sure that a certain patient was dead before he began the autopsy. The pathologist says he's absolutely certain. Oh, how can you be so sure? Because, the pathologist says, his brain was in a jar sitting on my desk. But, says the cross examiner, could the patient have been alive nonetheless? Well, comes the answer, it's possible he could have been alive and practicing law somewhere."

Someone tell the BoE and the Fed Reserve: I came across this quote the other day which just about says it all:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” ~ Ludwig Von Mises

Why can't women cut their hair?I grump about this because I am fed up with women on TV who constantly nod their heads to shake back the hair from their faces. They all look as though they're suffering either with a nervous tick or a version of St. Vitus Dance. I have just had my hair cut, No.2 all over which took all of 53 seconds and cost me £7.

Brilliant thinking, 'Jezza': So 'Jezza', a life-long supporter of CND, wants to get rid of our nuclear submarines. Alas for him, the majority of his MPs, and more important to him, most of the Trade Unions want them to be replaced with new boats and missiles. 'Jezza', along with his polit-bureau, thought long and hard on this ticklish problem and came up with a brilliant solution - yes, we'll have new, multi-zillion pound submarines but we will not put any nukes on them! 'Whodathunkit'?

She's back, thank God! Who, you may ask, and I will reply with just her name because that is all that is required - Anna Raccoon.

A poke in the eye for Peking:You Taiwanese are velly, velly naughty! How dare you go against the wishes of the Chinese polit-bureau and vote into office a new Prime Minister and ruling party who are Taiwanese nationalists who wishes to maintain a healthy distance between themselves and the over-reaching Chinese. And they did it with a huge majority! Unfortunately, for reasons beyond my ken, she and her party will not take over government until May - so expect yet more trouble in the South China Sea in the next few months.

The lost keys to paradise: I can't remember the number of times I have lost the keys to the car or to the front door but this Italian lady has set a new record by losing the key to her chastity belt! According to The Telegraph she turned up at her local Fire Station and after explaining the embarrassing situation, asked the duty firemen to help release her. Apparently, it was a good, old-fashioned iron chastity belt and the firemen were able to set her free. Enquiries were made to see if she had been forced to wear it by someone else but apparently not. Somehow, one feels, there is more to this story . . .

Oh dear what a pity never mind: Apparently, Russian oligarchs have lost $11bn in the last ten days.

Saturday, 16 January 2016

No, no, I'm not a manic depressive, I'm just a bit on the glum side, that's all! My preceding post might have might have wiped the smile off your face but this will have you reaching for a handful of 'uppers'!

As you will have read elsewhere, in fact, anywhere on the finance pages of any media outlet, there is a major economic tsunami winding up even as I tap out this miserable message. The news has even reached little Georgie in No. 11 who, against all his previous 'cheery chappie' statements, issued a rather glum warning just a few days ago. As always, the guilty parties are difficult to pin down. Undoubtedly the lying liars who run China bear a great deal of the blame. It has been obvious for years, er, as this blog has constantly pointed out, that they couldn't run a chop suey shop because they don't understand capitalism and think they can order it around just as they order their people around. Now they are just beginning to realise that capital is a many-headed dragon that has several lives of its own. Unfortunately, when the banking system in China finally implodes the shock waves will hit us as hard as them.

[T]he most accepted part of economics is Keynesianism. Of course, John Maynard Keynes said lots of things about economics in between his many and varied sexual encounters. But, as is the way of the world, one of the things he said turned out to be particularly influential. It is so influential that it has gone around the world. It is repeated and relied upon by Japanese finance ministers, New York Times columnists, Nobel prize winners and anti-austerity demonstrators. It is in textbooks around the globe. It is on page 262 of the Edexcel Economics A-level text book. In fact, it crops up several times in the book in various forms. Keynes, personally, is mentioned more frequently than any other economist living or dead. The idea guides government policy around the world and certainly here in Britain.

There is just one little problem: the idea is wrong. And as China — a devout follower of Keynes these days as much as of Marx — falters, it is becoming more and more apparent just how wrong it is.

The idea that governments can just press the 'ON' button and print off reams of paper money to solve all our economic ills is so stupid that only a Nobel Prize winning prat like Paul Krugman could believe it. It is a governmental Ponzi scheme of gigantic proportions and, sooner rather than later, we will find out the truth of the scam the hard way.

However, here in Britain, the economic catastrophe could have even more alarming results. The vast majority of people in 'this septic Isle' view Jeremy Corbyn and his polit-bureau as more or less harmless cranks, just another, even funnier, version of 'the Milipede'. No one, bar a few loonies and teen-agers, would put them in charge of a parish council, let alone the entire country. But that could all change when the brown stuff hits the fan. With a collapsing currency, raging inflation and mass unemployment, 'the People' (dread words!) will vote for anyone offering a quick and apparently easy solution. And once they are in, can you see the Marxist likes of 'Jezza', Ken Livingstone, John McDonnell, Seamus Milneet al, ever willingly giving up the power they would have?

Thursday, 07 January 2016

How very irritating it must be to that rather smug cove who runs China by diktat to discover that financial markets have a will of their own. Of course, if you start at the impoverished bottom then in the first few decades state-controlled capitalism must have seemed to be a never-ending cash machine which spewed forth money, first to you and your government and then to your people who, of course, love you dearly for it. But once people get money and the things that money buys, then they start to get ideas - and that's when the troubles start.

Suddenly, Chairman Xi has found that the financial tiger is hydra-headed, in fact, it has as many heads as the people who invest in it and that makes command and control exceedingly difficult. Even worse, there are those dreaded "events, dear boy, events" over which he has absolutely no control and which can suddenly strike the tiger where it hurts reducing it to pussy cat status. The people, needless to say, are not amused! Suddenly they had wealth, and equally suddenly, they don't! Chairman Xi, of course, reverting to his dictatorial instincts, might order the stock exchanges to be closed in order to stop people selling their stocks and shares but they cannot remain closed forever. As soon as they re-open the selling begins again!

How much easier life was in the days of Chairman Mao when the people had nothing and were deeply grateful for a handful of rice a day! Now Chairman Xi is fast approaching a Y-junction in the road ahead. He can either turn Left and take everything back into State control, or he can turn Right and let the markets go free. He, of course, is only interested in the politics of it all, not the economics. Beneath him he has a huge red blob which is the ruling communist party of China. They will not take kindly to a 'dear leader' who will allow their powers and privileges to be usurped. But beneath them, there are zillions of trillions of Chinese who have had a taste of capitalism and want more.

Tuesday, 29 December 2015

My forecast for 2016. What could go wrong, will go wrong. What absolutely and definitely can't possibly go wrong, will also go wrong. And it will rain! Yes, I know I have thus covered all eventualities but it is necessary for me to do so on this distinguished blog because the regular commenters here are a mean-spirited bunch of nit-pickers eager to pounce on my slightest error of judgment. Even so, I will attempt to be a little more specific.

There is, it seems to me, only one truly major global problem hanging over our heads and that is China. The only good news is that things might not come to a head in 2016 although the last few months of Obama's lacklustre leadership might tempt the Chinese to push their luck before next November. If, God help us all, 'The Donald', takes over then all bets are off! No-one knows what 'The Donald' would do if the Chinese shoot down an American aircraft over the disputed waters of the South China Sea - even 'The Donald'! However, that will all be in in 2017.

International finance is always a global problem and the crazy behaviour of the Saudi's as they set about destroying the OPEC cartel has ramifications for all of us. However, in the meantime just let's enjoy the cheap oil while it's here. Perhaps of more critical importance is the stability of the Saudi royal leadership. They can continue to 'flash the cash' in the casinos of the world just so long as they maintain a rising standard of living for their own people whilst simultaneously supporting a vicious religious apparat. However, their national revenues have fallen so short this year that they have been forced to slash their budgets. At the same time, the door to female emancipation - dread words to nearly all Saudi men - has just been nudged open, only by a smidgeon in allowing women to stand for local council positions but that could be the start of something big in the hitherto rigid, male-dominated society of Saudi Arabia. Internal ructions there will - if it's possible to imagine - turn the Middle East into an even greater frenzy than it is in already. (Note to Dave: don't, whatever you do, go there!)

I read somewhere today that the Ukraine is sliding into bankruptcy and it might tempt 'Vlad the Impaler' to finish eating the apple out of which he has already taken one big bite. Personally, I remain unperturbed. If he wishes to add a another bankrupt state to the bankrupt state over which he already rules, then I say good luck with that one, Vlad! Alas, the problem, when and if it should arise, will arouse major 'huffing 'n' puffing' from the Euro fanatics, no doubt with encouragement from Washington. (Note to Dave: don't, whatever you do, go there either!) With a bit of luck, 'Vlad', having become very used to his reputation as "a great war leader" - yeeeeeees, quite! - might decide to chance his arm in the Ukraine before our EU referendum which will help to persuade even more Brits to VOTE LEAVE!

Here, in 'this septic Isle', the only truly critical decision is the EU referendum. As it stands today, I fear that the majority will vote to stay in unless "events, dear boy, events" suddenly tip the balance the other way. The only convulsive action taken by the 'Great British Public' in my lifetime was the decision in 1945 to vote into power a doctrinaire socialist government. This was hugely influenced by the hundreds of thousands of returning servicemen who were determined to improve their lot - suckers! It took the next generation to grow up and realise that socialism was Grand Larceny by another name! Today we have another doctrinaire socialist party and another entirely new generation to swallow their nonsense whole. I think - I hope - that the Tories will see off this threat but they will do so only if they remain united. However, there are two matters that will be hugely influential in threatening Tory unity. The first is the EU referendum in which it can be truly stated that on the Right "there will be blood"! The second is the propensity for 'Dave 'n' George' to move the party to the Left in order to drive the Labour party even further to Marxist socialist extremes. This will leave space on the Right and, 'as any fule do no', nature abhors a vacuum.

Anyway, that is my almanac for 2016 but as that very shrewd operator, Mr. Donald Rumsfeld - what is it about these 'Donalds'? - once said, it's the 'unknown unknowns' that are the problem!

Tuesday, 08 December 2015

"Internal contradictions" was always the die hard Marxist concept which they clung to almost in desperation as capitalism grew and grew like Topsy, so there is some delicious irony, but not much surprise, to be observed in China as their own brand of 'internal contradictions' spreads across the country. A few days ago Zero Hedge re-iterated their list of, er, 'internal contradictions facing the Chinese government:

a slowing economy crippled by soaring debt, now over 300% of GDP

an economy which is overly reliant on fixed investment

an artificially high exchange rate which is adversely impacting exports and impairing trade, in a "beggar thy neighbor" world everyone is rapidly devaluing their own currency

the feedback loop of plunging commodity prices and highly levered domestic corporation which can not pay their annual interest expense payments at current prices of industrial commodities, leading to surging business failures and defaults

non-performing loans, as high as 20%, and metastssizing across the Chinese banking sector.

And then they went on to point up what might prove to be an even more tricky 'internal contradiction', that is, the fact that in the 'workers' paradise' the number of strikes by workers are mounting fast:

Beijing is the midst of a truly epic witch hunt aimed at tracking down and detaining what officials say are “malicious” short sellers and market manipulators who allegedly played a part in the meltdown the hit Chinese stocks at the end of the summer. The campaign - dubbed “kill the chicken to scare the monkey” after a Chinese proverb - is really nothing more than an attempt to coerce market participants into acting in a way that’s conducive to stock charts that go “up and to the right.”

Several huge Chinese financial companies haver reported that some of their senior execs have, er, "disappeared" - yeeeeees, quite, for re-education one supposes!

Another factor sharpening these 'internal contradictions' is the fact that the Chinese economy is tanking with its trade index dropping for four straight years. So now the apparatchiks are finding out the hard way how intensely difficult it is to combine capitalism and its inherent freedomswith one-party rule. Those few inside the polit-bureau who attempted to relax the stringency of the Party's diktat during the good times will now see their work undone, and who knows, perhaps they will be sent for 're-education' as well!

Tuesday, 20 October 2015

In the previous post I took swipes at both British and American foreign policy efforts. 'Dim Dave' bombed Libya to a ruin and appears slightly miffed that the scallywags and rascals took over the ruins. On the other hand, 'Ol Big Ears' pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan as fast as he could and now looks decidedly sulky at the disastrous results. His policy towards Syria, backed, God help him, by 'Dim Dave', has had two definite results. First, Assad is still there dishing out mass murder on his population. Second, the Russians are now well and truly in with boots on the ground in support of their 'nbf' (new best friend), Assad. So how's that intellectual foreign policy working out for you, Mr. President?

The Streetwise Professor draws back some of the veil in an excellent post entitled "An Innocent Abroad: Fred Hof and the Intellectual Failure of American Foreign Policy". Rather than tipping a bucket of excrement over the head of Mr. Fred Hof, a policy 'wonk' in the higher reaches of the State Department, I would like to congratulate him for searing honesty way above the call of duty. In an article in Politico, he offers up a massive mea culpa for the disaster that has overtaken Syria, a country he loves. He simply could not believe that President Obama could say one thing and do another. The Streetwise Professor sums it up, thus:

A recurrent theme-implicit, not explicit-is Hof’s incredible naiveté. He was repeatedly fooled by the man he was supposedly working with -Bashir al-Assad-and the man he was working for -Barack Obama. He was fooled because he romantically projected his own beliefs on them, and because he engaged in wishful thinking, when he would have been better served to live by Lily Tomlin’s credo: “We try to be cynical, but it’s hard to keep up.”

As I say, Mr. Hof is both honest and honourable in this mea culpa and perhaps, just perhaps, there may be a budding statesman in him. In the meantime, and apropos the possible stand off in the South China Sea, see post below, it makes me shudder to think of the dummies running American policy vis-à-vis China.

Honestly, our American 'cousins' are such a tease. Off and on over the past few months I keep reading headlines to the effect that the US Pacific Fleet is going to 'doa Gary Cooper', by steaming straight down the South China Sea and dare the Chinese 'baddies' to come out and face them mano-a-mano. I'm not too sure that's a good idea but just in case I have already dug my air-raid shelter! What is definitely not a good idea is to float it in public but then fail to follow it up. That smacks of, if you will excuse my diplomatic-speak, as 'huffin 'n' puffin'! Actually, given that China loathes and detests the USA and constitutes its biggest threat, I'm surprised 'Ol' Big Ears' hasn't followed the same line he has taken with other American enemies and learned the art of 'kow-towing'.

Should he require lessons, he could always ask for a briefing from 'Dim Dave', little Georgie-Peorgie and the British 'Ministry for Foreigners' who are laying it on with a trowel today in a superb example of proper 'kow-towing' during the visit of Pres. Xi Jinping. According to 'A E-P' in The Telegraph, this has seriously 'peed off' the Whitehouse and State Department who were already deeply niggled when we supported China's new scam scheme for a rival international monetary organisation which will be a direct challenge to the old Bretton Woods arrangements which are totally under the control of the USA.

Of course, reminding 'Ol' Big Ears' that on his very first day in office he made clear that he detested Britain and everything it stands for and that therefor he shouldn't be too surprised if the Brits begin to hedge their bets, would be a complete waste of time. He might have big ears but politically and diplomatically he's as deaf as a post!

Saturday, 17 October 2015

So there I was lying in bed this morning, feeling fairly happy, listening to the radio and looking forward to the huge list of domestic chores the 'Memsahib' delights in producing for me on a regular basis when suddenly I heard the re-incarnation of Fred Kite, one of the late Peter Sellers' greatest creations!

Fred Kite, you will recall - well, you will if you're a Brit and fairly ancient - was the ineffably stupid Trade Union shop steward in the 1959 satirical film I'm Alright Jack. Well, I'm delighted to tell you that the 'Kite line' continues to this day in the form of some total tit moaning on the radio about the closure of various steel plants across the country. In effect, he was complaining that the government had failed to step in and take over using 'government money'. Obviously, no-one had told this latter-day Fred Kite that there is no such thing as 'government money', there is only MY money plus whatever money the greasers in the Treasury can borrow off the international Shylocks and which has to be paid back eventually using - yes, you guessed it - MY money. (Of course, I realise that there is other people's money involved as well but I do like to nurture a personal grievance!)

So what, you may ask, was this 'son-of-Kite' intending to do with all this government money? The answer, as I understand it, was to keep on doing what they have been doing which is making zillions of tons of steel - that no-one wants to buy! Whilst doing so the workers would continue to receive their usual salaries - natch! And this brilliant plan to keep churning out more and more steel even as the storage capacity for unused and unwanted steel is rapidly reaching saturation point, and whilst the high seas are full of enormous ships with holds full of steel which cannot find a buyer, is the trade union solution to the problem - yeeeeeees, quite! In the meantime, various ninnies in the Labour party are rushing round in circles crying out that something must be done!

Well, yes, 'Bruvvers', something can be done and is being done - the steel producing plants will shut down! The workers, cradled to some extent by our welfare system, will eventually drift off into other jobs where their labours will result in products that people actually want. In the meantime, if the Chinese wish to flood the markets with steel produced at 'coolie'- level wages, that's fine by me, not least because the things of which steel forms a part will be that much cheaper.

Monday, 24 August 2015

On a morning which brings the news that the Chinese markets dropped 8.5% overnight with the result that the FTSE100 is off 2.7% and most of the rest of Europe is down over 3.0%, I can bring you one small item of good cheer. In China, as the Communist Party has gingerly allowed capitalism, red not in politics but in tooth and claw, to have space to operate, it will come as no surprise to us hard-bitten, twice-shy westerners to know that various dodgy investment outfits have started up. The Chinese are inveterate gamblers and anyone who offers them a deal too good to be true will have plenty of takers.

Thus it was with Fanya Metals Exchange, a company dealing in minor metals which offered the punters some enticing deals but suddenly - quelle surprise - not! - they stopped paying out. And then something very surprising happened, hundreds of investors from all round China identified where the boss was staying and they flew in, mobbed the hotel and carried out what we would call a citizens' arrest, handing the rascal over to the police - who released him later, so who did he know? . Even so, to quote my heading, 'that's what I call people power' and if I was President Xi Jinping I would be exceedingly worried. If, as seems probable, the Chinese economy is tanking then it might be a case of ' first they came for the bankers, then they came for the apparatchiks'!

Story on Zero Hedge but the site is not responding probably due to the number of visitors trying to find out what's going on with the markets!

Tuesday, 18 August 2015

I am amongst those who have persisted in rudely shouting at the Chinese government things like, "Show us your noodle!" I do so because I don't believe a damn thing they say about anything, least of all their economic statistics. Mind you, I am not unsympathetic to their plight in that they are a command apparat trying desperately to reap the rewards of free capitalism whilst maintaining their iron grip on every other facet of Chinese society.

Even so, I bow to the superior knowledge - and intellect - of John Redwood MP who, in his diary today, seeks to calm nerves following the recent dives in the Chinese stock market and the blatant government price-fixing of the value of the yuan. Nothing to see here, says Mr. Redwood, move along! Well, OK, but only because you say so. However, I will continue to watch them carefully because all governments make mistakes but dictatorial ones make the biggest!

I am off this afternoon to visit the Memsahib's family - yeeeeeees quite! I should be back late Thursday afternoon. Feel free to enjoy yourselves in the comments section - but please leave the place tidy!

Wednesday, 05 August 2015

Now look here, A E-P at The Telegraph, I rely on you for my daily dose of misery. You have been telling me for yonks that 'the end of the financial world is nigh' and I have purchased a really nice set of sackcloth and put together a fine collection of ashes ready for the day China goes broke, the EU disintegrates, America closes its borders to everyone and everything, Venezuela takes over the whole of South America and we have to go cap in hand to the Jocks for a loan! I'm not complaining, it assuaged the masochist longings that I possess.

But today you have ruined all that by publishing an article telling me that - gulp! - all is well with the world! China is poised for recovery, America is doing alright and Spain and Ireland are leading Europe out of recession. This is definitely not the sort of 'Good News' that I want to hear, so will you please revert to your normal Cassandra role and 'do' some more misery. Thank you!

Tuesday, 28 July 2015

Tricky question, best answered by a professor of the history of political philosophy but, alas, all you've got here today is me! (Mind you, I did pass 'O'-level history!) I am prompted to the question by the current state of China and also by my Russian e-pal, Alexey, who is facing the problem at first hand.

It seems to me that "that old common arbitrator, Time" is a huge factor. Consider English history from 1066 and the slow, halting, sometimes regressing, progress towards the sort of democracy we have now. Of course, the greatest advantage we enjoyed in this 'hit and miss' advance over the centuries was that we are an Island and thus avoided the constant interference of neighbours. That was not a condition enjoyed by most of our continental neighbours, although, given its huge size and inhospitable climate, Russia was almost an Island. Unfortunately, for them it worked the other way because their royal dictatorial leaders were free to make war on their neighbours and as we all know, there's nothing like a good war to help a regime increase its grip on the population. In fact, that is another feature of English 'isolation' in that for us, making war on countries across the sea was very difficult and very expensive but if it was undertaken it did not impinge directly on the English population and our political institutions.

Despite my negligible knowledge of European history, I would suggest that democracy only became a real possibility when the country concerned suffered a cataclysmic disaster. Germany springs to mind. Although it had a fledgling democracy after WWI it was easily swept away by Hitler and only in the ruins of their cities after 1945 did the Germans (irony alert!) under the diktat of their conquerors finally accept a full and functioning democracy. Similarly, the French went through the horrors of the revolution and Bonaparte's war, followed by yet another mini-revolution before they finally reached democracy.

So what of Russia and China today. Twice in the 20th century, Russia almost made the step-change into democracy. The first time it was slaughtered (literally at birth) by the Bolsheviks and the second time the very worst sort of mixture of naïve Americans and greedy bankers moved in and they were quickly out-foxed by the Russian 'kleptocracy'. Today, Russia is a dictatorship, not political but financial.

China, on the other hand has absolutely no experience of democracy. It is locked in the death grip of the Party, all of whose members only joined because, like racketeers everywhere, they wanted a share of the spoils. In a nation made up of a huge number of different ethnicities and traditions, to say nothing of languages, and therefor of a multiplicity of different needs, it is vital for the Communist Party of China (CPC) to grip every detailed facet of life in the entire country. However, to help sweeten their dictatorial pill they needs must grow the economy and share the wealth with the people. Thus, they have seized on western capitalism - without really understanding how it works, an ignorance shared by most westerners involved in capitalism! Like a Ponzi scheme, all will be well just so long as the wealth tap keeps flowing. However, the minute it slows to a trickle, or even worse, it stops, then that is the moment the chop suey hits the fan! I do not even wish to contemplate the catastrophe through which the Chinese people will have to suffer before they come out the other side and - perhaps! - realise that democracy, for all its inefficiencies and faults is infinitely better than dictatorship.

(Visitors expected any minute so apologies for any typos which I will correct later!)

Monday, 27 July 2015

We, and I include myself on an occasional basis, often fall into the error of thinking that all those jumped-up dictators are sharper, shrewder and ten steps ahead of the likes of 'Dim Dave' or even 'Ol' Big Ears'. For example, 'Vlad the Impaler', with keen geo-strategic insight carried out his own 'pivot to the east' by cuddling up to the Chinese and signing a new and huge pipe-line deal that will whoosh oil and gas across to his new best friends. This would be accomplished by his prize energy company, Gazprom. I am deeply indebted to the Streetwise Professor for deflating all that hot air in one deadly blog post entitled with equally deadly accuracy 'Putin's pivot to obscurity'.

On a Monday morning in which the Chinese stock exchange fell another 8% - 8%! - despite the government using emergency laws to discourage selling, it comes as no surprise to learn that the Chinese have about as much use for expensive Russian energy as we in Britain need more rain! Plus, and you can blame those damned Aussies, apparently they can supply Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) for a fraction of Russia's price - good on yer, Aussie mate!

The good Professor points to three very basic problems facing 'Vlad' and his gangsters

1: The pipeline itself is eye-wateringly expensive mostly because the crooks who run Gazprom insist on building it themselves because, well, how else are they going to skim off the top?

2: The pipeline goes to western China which is precisely where China does not want it!

3: And in any case today China doesn't want the stuff because, as mentioned above, the Aussies can supply it cheaper and also it is now obvious that the Chinese economy is in deep doo-doo and sinking fast - oh dear what a pity never mind!

Suddenly the world is a very lonely place for 'Vlad' so its just as well he has one good and true honest friend - Sepp Blatter! Here they are together, kissing in the back row:

Friday, 24 July 2015

Now then, children, we're going to start the day with a song, altogether now:

Your toe bone connected to your foot bone,

Your foot bone connected to your ankle bone,

Your ankle bone connected to your leg bone,

Your leg bone connected to your knee bone,

Your knee bone connected to your thigh bone,

Your thigh bone connected to your hip bone,

Your hip bone connected to your back bone,

Your back bone connected to your shoulder bone,

Your shoulder bone connected to your neck bone,

Your neck bone connected to your head bone,

I hear the word of the Lord!

Oh do come along, 'BOE', sing up and look as though you are enjoying it; and 'JK', it's no good you gargling with that, er, throat medicine Barney Magroo sold you; and Andra if you must keep hooting through that Aboriginal tube-thingie then please keep in time!

Now where was I? Oh yes, the title to this brilliant essay - don't even whisper it, Jimmy! - is "Connections". You see, in this global age, we are all 'connected'. I know, I know, this is the sort of incisive, original thinking which makes this blog worth every penny you pay for it. Oh, I've just remembered, none of you pay anything - cheapskates!

Now where was I again? Oh yes, 'connections'. I was struck by an article this morning by A E-P in The Telegraph in which he reports that:

Russia has fallen into full-blown depression and faces a mounting fiscal crisis as oil and gas revenues plummet.

Output from country’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom has collapsed by 19pc over the past year as demand shrivels in Europe, falling to levels not seen since the creation of the company at the end of the Cold War.

A report by Sberbank warned that Gazprom’s revenues are likely to drop by almost a third to $106bn this year from $146bn in 2014, seriously eroding Russia’s economic base.

Of course, if it was just one sector, even a huge one like oil and gas, then no doubt 'Vlad the Impaler' with the aid of his secret policemen would find a way round but, and I know it will surprise no-one, the rest of Russia is fucked, too!

We’ve seen the full impact of the crisis in the second quarter. It is now hitting light industry and manufacturing,” said Dmitri Petrov from Nomura.

“Russia is going to be in a very difficult fiscal situation by 2017,” said Lubomir Mitov from Unicredit. “By the end of next year there won’t be any money left in the oil reserve fund and there is a humongous deficit in the pension fund. They are running a budget deficit of 3.7pc of GDP but without developed capital markets Russia can't really afford to run a deficit at all.”

A report by the Higher School of Economics in Moscow warned that a quarter of Russia’s 83 regions are effectively in default as they struggle to cope with salary increases and welfare costs dumped on them by President Vladimir Putin before his election in 2012. “The regions in the far east are basically bankrupt,” said Mr Mitov.

So where is the connection, you ask, not unreasonably? Unfortunately I have lost the source article but about a week ago some economics swot wrote a piece warning that Australia - yes, Australia - is heading for the Barrier Reef and for much the same reason. Hitherto, the Australian economy has thrived under a colossal demand for minerals and coal of which Australia has 'oodles of boodles' underground. But now demand for commodities, particularly from China which has kept our Aussie pals in silks and satins, has slumped. There was one key statistic I spotted the other day, electricity use in China has dropped! Thus, this diagram courtesy of Zero Hedge explains why:

You can see where the Chinese government desperately sought to use its dictatorial powers to inject demand into their economy but one by one they have all failed. And then there is gold which the Chinese bought and stored in eye-wateringly huge amounts as well as mining their own as fast as they could - they have a division of the People's Army which is employed solely on gold mining! Well, 'velly solly, Comrade' but the gold price just fell back down the mine!

So you see, it's true, one damn thing leads to another and then on to yet another. So all I can say is, if it's raining in Moscow today then buy an umbrella for tomorrow - where-ever you are!

ADDITIONAL: Well, I thought you all needed some high-class, analytical economic reportage now that the Financial Times has been flogged off to the Japs. I can hear it now - "All Blitiss officers editors will work!"

Thursday, 23 July 2015

As you will have gathered, my expertise in high finance is exceedingly low. According to the 'Memsahib' (aka: the Finance Director), my expertise in low finance is also dead dodgy! But you see, I'm a 'broad picture' sort of a man, I don't wish to be bothered with trivial detail, just give me the fundamentals and I'll take a stab at a judgment. For example, as I have told you all before, China is fucked! For the last week or two 'Tyler Dunne' at Zero Hedgehas been reporting on some extraordinary behaviour going on inside China. For a start, and most ominously, capital outflows are reaching flood levels. For those of you who lack the required knowledge of high financial terminology - I heard that! - "capital outflows" means lots of dodgy geezers with heavy suitcases making for the airports as fast as they can. Well, not really, because it's actually worse than that. It means huge numbers of exceedingly rich Chinese who live and work inside the country can see the warning signs and they're clicking on their computers in order to get their money out as fast as they can.

In today'sTelegraph, A E-P has trawled the international high finance swots and their opinions seem to coincide - China is in big trouble! The government through a mixture of new financial and legal restrictions backed up by a thuggish police force have reigned in the free-ish market that was developing and now it is back to government diktat. For a while, this will work, or at least, it will give the appearance of working but in the end it will fail.

Tuesday, 07 July 2015

In Berlin-Brussels and in Beijing they are learning, the hard way, a bit of old Scottish wisdom written by 'Rabbie' Burns who was upset by the sight of ruined mouse nest he had inadvertently ploughed through:

But alas, somehow, don't tell me how, I don't think the likes of 'Junker the Drunker' or Pres. Xi Jingpin will be well versed in Burns' poetry, any more than all the other lunatics in history who have been swept away with delusions of grandeur for some man-made scheme 'guaranteed' to bring ever-lasting happiness.

The Chinese bureaucracy, like their European equivalents, simply cannot understand the limits of Man's knowledge. Thus, the Chinese, in attempting to move away from total control in order to grasp the tempting fruit of capitalism fail to realise that the fruits concerned develop in the fertile fields of liberty backed by an independent judiciary. The Eurocrats, by contrast, already gifted with liberty by the blood and treasure of two of the most democratic nations on the planet, have cast the gift away in pursuit of a chimera in which liberty must be sacrificed to the construction of an entirely new political and economic model.

Today, we can see the cracks and fissures in these 'constructs' and it is only a matter of time before collapse. "There will be blood", there always is because some how, for some reason, we never learn.

Monday, 06 July 2015

Following my usual editorial policy (who sniggered?) that one picture is worth a thousand words from me, here is a chart from The Telegraph which should take your mind off all those silly hissy-fits being thrown about all over Europe:

Please note the time scale at the top - just three weeks! Now we can sit back and watch yet another authoritarian, command and control regimewhich played with free market ideas without ever really understanding how they work. Just like Berlin-Brussels, really!

However, to be fair to the Chinese authorities, all is not entirely lost, it just depends when, as a Chinese peasant or factory worker, you decided to gamble your savings on what looked like "a stairway to paradise":

If it was before April this year you may still be on a profit but I bet you're a worried man! But not as worried as the apparatchiks in the CPC (Communist Party of China) who by now may realise, as Mr. Peter Spence reports, that "There are now more stock market investors in China than members of the country's Communist party, according to Bloomberg - 90m versus 87.7m." 'Clikey'!

Anyway, the CPC in something of a panic over their late discovery that, unlike State statistics, what goes up in free markets usually comes down again, are now desperately trying to 'do a Canute'. According to 'Tyler Durden' at Zero Hedge, having used various financial policy shifts to no avail they have now reverted to type and in order to stop the selling that has depressed prices they have banned selling by all pension funds!

What's the Chinese for 'free market operations'? Probably, whatever I say it is, according to the First Secretary of the CPC!

Despite all the hopes and prayers of illiterate farmers everywhere, Chinese stocks refuse to hold a bid and down 3-4% at the open amid suspension of around 160 individual securities. In the pre-open to open, Shanghai Composite is down 3.2%, Shenzhen is off 3.5%, and China's Nasdaq - ChiNext is down 3.8%. This leaves ChiNext down over 40% from its highs as the cost of insuring downside in Chinese stocks explodes to record highs. As China goes through the 1929 playbook to save its 'market', it appears "momentum" has shifted.

Confucious, he say, he who catch capitalist tiger by tail ... aaaaaaaaaaargh!

Saturday, 27 June 2015

I have stolen my heading - yeah, yeah, I know I promised the magistrate not to steal other people's witticisms but I can't help myself - from a commenter over at the Zero Hedgesite which is not usually a bundle of laughs. More true to type they quote the WSJ as pointing out a 20% drop in Chinese stock markets in just a matter of days since the government via the People's Bank (who sniggered?) of China cut interest rates and other key factors in an effort to stabilise conditions.During the past year the main Chinese index has gained an incredible 106PC most of it on the back of crazy lending to investors. Guess what, suckers, you've been had! Now the Chinese government find themselves between a runaway truck and the Great Wall of China! Andrew Critchlow in The Telegraph points out that many of the 'investments' made on borrowed money are now worth less than the loans. "There will be blood!"

Monday, 01 June 2015

Now before I begin I just know that some of my crustier Brit readers having read my title will be nodding vigorously and muttering ‘bring it on’ or words to that effect. My answer to them is grow up! Yes, America, like every Super Power including us ‘back in the day’ has blundered about and made some big mistakes but in the truly great events of the 20th century they have, more or less and not without considerable self-interest, been there on the side of western democracies. However, if that fails to impress you then consider what now appears to be the increasing likelihood that the mighty US of A will simply disappear as a global power, that’s if, first of all, it doesn’t just implode and fragment. How does a world run by a powerful, rampant and unopposed China grab you?

Let me begin by urging you to visit the site of my American e-pal, Malcom Pollack, who is in despair over the state of his country. He points to a devastating summary by Victor Davis Hansen who spells out the horrid truth that the progressive Left have already won the battle for America. The so-called political Right are mostly ‘sock-puppets’ going through the motions of opposition but secretly happy to see the inexorable rise and rise of the state, in which they can grab their share (for the moment) even if it leads to the crushing of once dearly-held beliefs in the idea of individual freedom.

My forecasting record is not, shall we say, without its blemishes but I would remind you that years ago I warned that Obama’s apparat was Marxist to its core and that it would ram through measures likely to end in confusion, panic and, America being America, violence. There is nothing the Left likes better than a really good crisis! From those circumstances, emergency regulations can be rushed through and once passed, of course, they remain for ever to be added to and expanded as required. Thus will the iron grip of totalitarianism grip the so-called ‘Land of the Free’. Does this matter, you may ask? Well, consider where that will leave the idea of liberty and democracy. It will be limited to a small island off the north-west coast of Europe and in a few Anglophile ex-Dominions.

After six decades serving as the global policeman, the United States is now signalling its retreat from the world.

With the Middle East engulfed by the flames of sectarian conflict, Europe’s borders menaced by the threat of war and China starting to flex its muscles in Asia-Pacific, it is clear the world has entered a new period of volatility.

Indeed, that last question is crucial and, I suspect, not given a minute’s thought by ‘Dim Dave’ and his Tory cohorts or even by the so-called ‘mandarins’ of Whitehall who are paid to do their ministers’ thinking for them! Happily, Mr. Bremmer supports what I would like to call the ‘Duff Doctrine’, except that my unfortunate surname somewhat reduces its, er, importance and accuracy. Anyway, it is what I have written before ‘many a time and oft’’:

Invest in relations with America, but not at the expense of relations with China, India, Germany, the Saudis and other emerging players. Embrace your relationship with the Saudis because they're wealthy and they don't have any friends. What else can you do to differentiate yourself? Stop doing geopolitics. You're not building your military, you're not going to project force any more. Be much more like the Germans. Say, 'we're not going to talk about the Dalai Lama, let's have a special relationship with the Chinese so we can focus on where our industrial and commercial relations can be more aligned’. Do the same thing with the Indians while you're at it. That's a very different choice for the Brits. But given what we are seeing right now in the United States I think it's a smart play.

The world it is a-changin’. The post-American era is upon us. Better watch out!