Thursday, March 9, 2017

Mosul Campaign Day143, Mar 8, 2017

Mansour above Wadi Hajar was one of the new neighborhoods
taken on March 8 (Medecins Sans Frontieres)

The Golden Division continued their push from the southern
tip of west Mosul into the center. The Joint Operations Command had it freeing
the Mansour and Shahuda neighborhoods. A security source told New Sabah that the Federal
Police and Rapid Reaction Division were pushing into the Old City, but that
might be premature. The Iraqi Forces (ISF) are advancing along two axes. One is
along the Tigris River by the police and the other is in the middle by the
Golden Division. Eventually a third from the west should be opened as well when
the 9th Division and Al-Abbas Division finally reach the city.

9th Division and Al-Abbas Division seized the
Badush Prison the site of a mass execution by the Islamic State (Liveuamap)

The army and Hashd to the east of Mosul took
the Badush Prison and nearby Atshana Hills. The 9th Division claimed
it had taken the facility at the start of the March. The prison is notorious
for the executions carried out by the Islamic State there in 2014. When the
insurgents seized
Badush they separated
the prisoners by sect and shot around 670 of them, mostly Shiites, but also
some Kurds and Yazidis as well. The road
between Mosul and Kasak was cut as well. This was supposed to isolate Mosul off
from Tal Afar, but that has been said to have been done several times before.

The Defense Ministry announced that it
was using new tactics in the west Mosul campaign. This was based upon deceiving
the Islamic State about where the ISF would attack. That was done before the
start of the operation when there were stories that the Golden Division would
make a river crossing across the Tigris. This led the Islamic State to fortify
the river bank. Instead the Iraqis came from the south led by the Federal
Police and Rapid Reaction Division. This along with the multi-front approach
shows that the ISF is expanding its planning, command and control during the
war and is developing as a fighting force.

Civilians have been the main victims of the fighting in
Mosul. According
to the United Nations 600 people had been taken to hospitals so far since the
battle for west Mosul began on February 19. The densely packed neighborhoods
has been one cause for the increase as it is extremely hard to prevent
collateral damage from air strikes and artillery fire. Another cause is the
Islamic State has changed tactics. Before IS was forcing people out of their
homes to convert them to fire positions. Now the insurgents are keeping people
in their residents to be used as human shields. Unfortunately there are still
some rash commanders as witnessed yesterday with the ill advised thrust
into the government center, which turned into a black eye for the ISF.

U.S. and Iraqi officials told
the press that IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was not in Mosul. He probably
left long ago as soon as the Iraqi government let it be known that it was going
to target the city. The Iraqis for example have claimed that Baghdadi was in
the western desert of Ninewa for some time. Wherever he is it will not be
revealed in the media unless he happens to be killed.

Deputy United Nations spokesman Farhan Haq said
that 53,500 people had fled west Mosul so far. That has brought the total
number of displaced (IDPs) in Ninewa to 211,572. Around 64,000 people have gone
back as well since October. Going largely unreported now is the fact that
civilians are still leaving the eastern section of the city. The Islamic State
is still shelling
that part of Mosul, and there are severe shortages of water, electricity, and
food for the majority of the population. The camps south of Mosul and in Irbil
are almost full and the United Nations is building two more for the increased
displacement.

The Economist
was the latest to run a story on east Mosul. A man told the magazine there were
no services and government in the city. Few aid groups were present as well.
Baghdad has not appointed any administration leaving the security forces and
the overwhelmed local government to run things. Much has been made of life
returning such as shops opening, but they do not have much business as there
are no jobs and people don’t have money. Many people stayed in east Mosul
during the fighting, and when it was liberated more started returning. They did
not want to be in the camps which are very restrictive on movement, and sought
to secure their goods after stories of looting spread. People are trying to
rebuild but it is very hard as there is no economy and Baghdad and aid groups
lack the resources to make any meaningful changes. That has already led to some
resentment, which could grow.

Finally, the Sydney Morning Herald
went to the Qayara oil fields to report on the fires there. In July 2016 IS
blew up 19 oil wells there, 3 of which are still burning. It also planted IEDs
around the site making it difficult for workers to make repairs and douse the
flames. A doctor at a health clinic said that at one point people were covered
with oil from all the fires. The health effects of all this toxic material will
likely not be felt until months and years later.

3 comments:

bb/gj
said...

Andrew Exum has an extremely interesting post in the Atlantic on the "Coming Fall of Mosul".He says the ISF is on the verge of a "mighty victory". Being Exum it took me back to the days when bloggers, Iraqi, US and European were following, in detail, every day of the US/ISF surge battles in 2006/07 to defeat the sunni salafi-led terrorist insurgency before Obama and the Dems got in in 2008 and resurrected and re-empowered them!And that reminded me that you, Joel, are about the only blogging identity from those days still in action and what a great job you have done in documenting this momentous battle. Congratulations.Exum worth an interview I reckon.

There was a "golden age" of Iraqi blogging. There were literally over 100 blogs many by Iraqis in English and Arabic not to mention all the ones by westerners/Americans as well. 2 things killed that period. 1) Iraqis got Facebook and all the blogs died. 2) When the U.S. drew down and withdrew from Iraq almost all the Americans and westerners moved on. For a while it was just me and Reidar Visser. There is one Iraqi blog called 1001 Iraqi Thoughts that is in English. Mostly Iraqi ex-pats connected with Dawa.

I miss Reidar's blog very much specifically for its detailed coverage of the doings of the Iraqi Parliament. Apart from Tunisia (which came later) it is the only democratically elected, one person, one vote proportional representative, constitutionally guaranteed people's assembly in the Arab world. Like the four yearly elections nationally and gubernatorial, it has remained a stable reality in Iraq since 2005. Thanks for that link to 1001 Iraqi Thoughts.

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Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com