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The birds that are winning and losing thanks to climate change

They may be separated by an ocean, but birds in the US and Europe are responding to climate change in a surprisingly similar way: winners are outperforming losers to a comparable degree.

Some of the biggest winners in the US include Cassin’s kingbird, the Anhinga and the orchard oriole. Losers include the Canada warbler, the white-throated sparrow and the common grackle. In Europe, it’s species like the bee-eater, Cetti’s warbler and the chiffchaff that are performing better, while the brambling and willow tit fare poorly.

These findings were made by examining how the occurrence of some 145 species of European bird and 380 species from the US changed in relation to climate between 1980 and 2010. “This allowed us to decide whether each species had been advantaged or disadvantaged by climate change,” says Stephen Willis of Durham University in the UK.

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His team then used yearly bird census data from every country or US state to see how each advantaged and disadvantaged species was faring.

The Orchard Oriole is doing well

Tom Vezo/Minden Pictures/FLPA

They found that, although the US and European birds’ response differed in many ways, the degree to which advantaged birds outperform more disadvantaged species has been similar. “Climate seems to be having a consistent effect,” says Willis.

“The study demonstrates the recent climate change has done more good than harm among common birds across continents,” says Chad Wilsey, director of Conservation Science at National Audubon Society. “Now that we know species are responding to climate change, the question remains at what point this response will become negative.”

The data also revealed that many species are thriving in some areas while declining in others. The American robin is on the rise in the Dakotas even as it becomes scarcer in Mississippi and Louisiana, for example. And in Europe, the Dartford warbler has become eight times more abundant in the UK while simultaneously declining in Spain.

Canada Warbler

Alan Murphy, BIA/Minden Pictures/FLPA

The pattern of winners versus losers does hide some important differences, says Willis. In Europe, those species that appear to have been disadvantaged by climate change have declined significantly, while those that are supposedly advantaged by it have actually remained more or less static since 1980.

But in the US, the relatively disadvantaged species have managed to maintain stable population sizes, while the populations of advantaged species have actually grown.

Frank La Sorte at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, thinks the differences between the US and Europe aren’t too surprising. “The two regions differ profoundly in their geomorphology and land-use history, and we would expect bird populations to have different opportunities under climate change,” he says. Those opportunities seem to be more beneficial for bird populations in North America. “Exploring the mechanisms behind these differences will be an important area for future research.”