First of all,(in the short-term) it is the interaction of supply and demand that moves a stock.. kahit ano pang insider shit, fundamental magic ng isang stock… IF THAT DOES NOT REFLECT IN THE MARKET… then the market clearly does not agree or SEE your proposition yet.

Also.. kahit ano pang technicals at Funda nyan, eh bound to be disrupted dahil may Follow-on Offer. (which is dictated by the Investment Bankers, the owners, and how the market reacts to the offer)

(Why is the price going down despite previous rumors of 3-4+ FOO?)

Simple, you already have clues. If the DEMAND for the FOO is strong then market price should be rising now, institutions would just buy at the market if the current price is lower vs the FOO.

If institutional demand for this stock was strong then they would’ve been able to FOO this 7-15% discount when it was doing 3.30? 3.00? 2.80? lol.

Also, the fact na-delayed, and na paliit ang size ng FOO gives you a big clue that demand on the stock is withering or weak. Obviously if there’s strong demand, investment bankers would do what they can to cater to it ASAP.

Lastly, kahit gaano ka pa ka galing, mag TA, mag Funda.. you have to protect yourself from the downside. Problem with most investors and traders is they seem to like RIDING the downside all the way to the BOTTOM. (harsh truth)

Always put into plan what you’re gonna do if in case your trade goes wrong.

It just pisses me that some people are so dependent, and gullible Yes rumors , tips, fundamentals CAN help you given the right circumstances, but that doesn’t mean you won’t be implying a risk-control parameter (in case your trade goes wrong)

As for $FNI, yup end of day earnings will still prop the stock–so at some point magiging pwede yan (specially if FOO is cleared). Unfortunately those who had this at 2.50++ lost a lot of opportunity already. (time wise / vs other stocks) ok lang kung LONG TERM investor ka.. problem is there seems to be lots of long term investors who are troubled with their high prices. (know yourself, know your strategy, know your risk)

I have 2 questions here:
1. How can FNI make an FOO at 3.5, 3 or 2.8 when until now, management is still waiting for PSE to approve the FOO?
2. The assumption and statement that FOO is delayed, and pinaliit ang size ng FOO is an indication that demand on the stock is withering or weak. What if delayed ang FOO because of PSE approval issue and pinaliit ang size (which is not yet confirmed as per disclosure) because some investors slowly bought it at the market through block sale? I would rather agree if you say that because of the reason that FOO is delayed and rumors on reduction of FOO size that the market sentiment/reaction is negative. My friend, just remember that market is not efficient, who knows FNI one day that FNI will become 5? Just keep this statement and let’s say after 1 year. Curse me if not, lol!

1. Even if it ain’t approved yet , investment bankers are already working their ways to look for demand. If there’s tons of insto’s willing to buy shares it would be safe to assume any logical corporation would quickly do their best to fill any requirement.

2. Directly yeap, delay was due to their requirements and what not. But, again, if there was STRIKING DEMAND the management would just strive their assess to quickly pass all requirements to MEET THE DEMAND

Size wise, whatever their reason –it’s simple. If there was strong demand then they can easily and would most likely sell as many as they can (at the highest prices possible). At their current standing, I don’t think they will cut offer size if demand is overwhelming. These are just subtle clues in my head , but what’s funny is that it was reflected in the previous price action moving from 3.00 to 2.00. That tells you a lot.

If there was real serious local / foreign insto interest here then they would’ve been buying at the board aggressively (if in case FOO was indeed to be valued at 3.00+.)

Fundamental wise, got no qualms. As I specified in my article, earnings will prop this up over time. Whatever the target. 10 pesos 20 pesos 69 pesos. I don’t care. From what I see FNI is a good company battered by market sentiment + confusion.

I don’t have qualms with FNI per se, what I despise is when I see so many traders, specially those whom I know personally, set in their pride and ego and get all emotional on their stock, buying on tips / rumors without any kind of strategy & risk control metrics of their own. As much as I would like to help these people, end of the day “we get what we want from the market”

@Technimentalist – Nearing that 1 year already hehehehe. Funny how the FOO hasn’t even happened yet, lest the price of FNI be in the pre-hyped ‘bagger state’. If only people cared to listen to the actual signs.

This is the very same reason why I’ll always advocate techs for retail traders/small time consumers, a little knowledge goes a long way. Leave the funda to the institutions who typically use it to spin stories to would-be investors.

@imbangklase – cheers idol, see ya at the bounce points of this idiot of a stock.

I have nothing against FNI myself, but I totally agree with this post. It’s important to plan your own trade at wag magpadala sa hype. Do your own research and don’t get too emotional if things go south. Unless you’re a long term investor, you should know when to cut your losses.

I don’t get why you get all emotional when your friends “get all emotional” on FNI and fail to plan their trade properly. Are you your brother’s keeper. Who knows FNI might be the stock to make them millionaires in the future. Because they were forced to sit on the stock. Or if not, it will be the stock to finally teach them to become a good trader. I follow many groups in facebook and one site that I don’t get as well is BOH which gets all hot and bothered everyday because supposedly people are being victimized by TAP. In the meantime, they lose their credibility by acting petty and vindictive everyday. Anyway, I’m not attacking your post as it’s a good reminder and a fresh perspective. Thanks!

I’m not emotional. I just want my friends to learn how to implement proper risk management that’s all. That’s me “being a friend”

That’s all there is to it. It’s not just my friends, but it’s a lesson to (most) traders. Many just go in a stock without knowing the risks they’re really taking, and it’s not just FNI or what, cycle goes on. this post merely serves as a lesson so that people can act better in the future.

What bothers me is when I see people whine or cry or complain when their stock goes slumping after buying on a ‘rumor’ or ‘tip’

I’m no one’s keeper. I just like to iterate the lessons to be learned in situations like this. What I pointed out were merely objective points.

Sure they can all be millionaires in $FNI. I have no qualms in that. Again I have no qualms in the stock. For all I care it could reach 10000000000 in the long term.

love reading your blog Mr. IK, very informative so please continue writing………. I admire your coolness as well especially on the way you reply to you readers comments, my respect….. just a newbie question if i may… in the case of FNI, as we all witnessed this past few weeks, panay pa rin bagsak ng presyo nya, assuming i want to get into this stock, kelan bale ang right timing para pumasok dto and any specific signs or reason before buying this stock in spite of its downward movement….. im very eager to hear your answers, pls do shaare… TIA

lol, yeah sure I’d mind my own business on people I dont care about but these “friends” of mine ask me for help, and advice. so I guess I have the right to mind their business as well. And did I say I was a better trader? Not really. I just advocate discipline and proper risk management.