Polish brothers at arms

Donald Tusk may be the most senior office-holder in Europe, but that doesn’t keep him out of the political fray in his native Poland. With 43-year-old upstart Andrzej Duda newly installed as Polish President, the games have only just begun and the stakes are high: Duda could block Tusk’s nomination for a second 2.5-year term as European Council President in 2018.

Tusk’s notable absence from the August 6 swearing-in ceremony in Warsaw was not the first shot fired in a clash that has been in the making since the Law and Justice party’s Duda won May’s presidential contest, promising to revive a more nationalistic, socially conservative and Euroskeptic brand of Polish politics.

“Mr. Tusk has made no contact since the election. This information is confirmed by President Duda,” the President’s aide Marcin Kędryna told POLITICO. “Furthermore, Mr. Tusk was the only politician that did not send any congratulations letter.” Snap.

In fact, Tusk did congratulate Duda — but only in a tweet and only after praising the man Duda beat, Tusk’s colleague from the center-right Civic Platform party, Bronisław Komorowski.

It went unnoticed at the time, but while Tusk found time to congratulate the new Finnish Prime Minister Juha Sipilä and Britain’s David Cameron on their respective victories, he didn’t muster the energy to write to Duda, as European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and national leaders did.

Tusk’s office did not respond to repeated requests for comment on his relationship with Duda. They were, however, at pains to point out that the head of the Council did not attend Duda’s inauguration because “he was not invited by President-elect Duda.”

In the absence of a functioning relationship, Duda’s camp has been happy to stoke tensions. In May, his party colleague Ryszard Legutko, a member of the European Parliament, filed a complaint about Tusk with European Ombudsman, Emily O’Reilly.

Legutko, whose complaint was dismissed because he failed to first address it to Tusk and his team, accused the European Council president of violating impartiality rules governing EU employees by voicing support for Komorowski during his failed campaign.

It’s not hard to see why Tusk decided to intervene in the election, where Duda ran as a kind of ‘anti-Tusk.’

Burnt legacy

Michał Kolanko, founder and editor of 300polityka.pl, a political publication, said it boiled down to Duda positioning himself as the “voice of Poland in the EU,” arguing that the country “should be more assertive, that Poland should more directly defend the interests of its people.”

On the home front too, Duda and Tusk stand in stark contrast in both style and substance.

“Tusk, during his years as PM, constructed an informal so-called ‘warm water policy’ — providing only necessary and incremental fixes, avoidance of big reforms and ideology in policy. It worked, but was often derided … Duda is trying to counter that in his rhetoric,” said Kolanko.

“He claims that he is ready to ‘fix the Republic’ and implement big, sweeping changes in almost all aspects of government,” said the analyst.

At least five substantive clashes loom on the political horizon:

1. Polish parliamentary elections in October: If Civic Platform’s Ewa Kopacz loses her bid to remain Prime Minister, it will amount to the burning of Tusk’s political legacy, coming just a year after his resignation from the post. The election campaign will be closely scrutinized for any sign that Tusk is positioning to rescue his legacy by running for Poland’s Presidency in 2020.

2. Global COP21 climate conference in December: Poland relies on coal, and sees EU policies to control the use of coal as antagonistic to Polish interests. Climate is Duda’s ‘two for the price of one’ political punch. By positioning himself as the EU’s problem child in climate negotiations, Duda can hurt Tusk by threatening to wreck the EU’s united front and win at home by securing costly sweeteners from Brussels. Duda can also use COP21 as a bargaining chip in discussions about Brexit, which is arguably the biggest challenge Tusk will face as Council President.

3. David Cameron’s EU reform package, ahead of Brexit referendum, 2016. Duda is no fan of red tape, but his economic policies — lowering the retirement age and a tough line on foreign firms — are more Orbán than Osborne, and definitely not Tusk. With Cameron wanting treaty change to derail the “ever closer union,” Duda is likely to needle Tusk by asking for Poland’s own climate opt-out. The pair will have to find common ground around free movement of people and labor, which is strongly supported across the political spectrum in Poland, but a concern for Cameron. In the U.K., Poles are the largest migrant population, with around 700,000 residing there.

4. Poland’s fraught euro entry. According to the Centre for European Reform’s Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, the euro will be the biggest clash: “Civic Platform and Law and Justice are like to have completely different views.” As Prime Minister, Tusk originally sought Polish entry into the single currency by 2012. That didn’t happen and now Duda wants to protect Poland as a leading ‘euro-out’ country. His potential Prime Minister and party colleague Beata Szydło has said euro entry is off the table until Polish wages catch-up with Western Europe. In contrast Tusk’s Civic Platform and Tusk as European Council President want Poland to join the euro once it meets the convergence criteria.

5. Donald Tusk’s re-appointment discussions, 2017-18. The working assumption in Brussels is that Donald Tusk wants re-appointment in 2018 to serve a full five years as European Council President. That means Tusk’s fate is in his opponent’s hands: he needs Duda’s vote, or the re-appointment can be blocked. That itself would be a huge risk for Duda — undermining the only Pole to hold one of the top EU posts. Blocking Tusk would almost certainly guarantee further domestic interventions, as Tusk would then have full-time possibilities to begin a campaign to oust Duda.

This story was updated to correct the position of Marcin Kędryna.

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“Duda could block Tusk’s nomination for a second 2.5-year term as European Council President in 2018”
Let us hope he will. As the yanks say “he is as useless as one-legged man in an ass kicking contest”.
Every other “man” in Polish government is a historian, including Donald Tusk, but it doesn’t mean they have learned anything while at college. Time to find some real work Donald, like pushing broom for instance.

nanader

They both are from opposing political camps, but when it comes to key Polish national interests, their views will likely converge. In the past the Tusk’s and Duda’s parties worked closely together when it comes to national security, for example. An another case in point is coal. Even though Tusk represents the whole of EU right now, he will likely make sure that, as far as his scope of responsibilities reaches, Poland will not be in for an economic shock because of the EU-wide environmental policies. Therefore, Duda will likely support Tusk in getting re-elected. Their differences are not so great so as to endanger key Polish interests.

Posted on 8/10/15 | 9:32 AM CET

giraud jeanguy

It is about time for D.Tusk – president of the European Council – to understand that he is supposed to keep out of domestic politics during his mandate. The same is true for the A.Duda who is not supposed to mingle internal and european affairs when sitting or voting in the European Council. Please, keep national politics out of european Institutions. JGG

Posted on 8/10/15 | 10:03 AM CET

Meta

“That means Tusk’s fate is in his opponent’s hands: he needs Duda’s vote, or the re-appointment can be blocked.”

Can it? Isn’t this the Prime Minister’s decision? Since when does the Polish President go to EUCO?

Posted on 8/10/15 | 10:06 AM CET

Peter

Girard, keeping Tusk out of PL politics will be difficult. Duda’s party base largely beliefs that Tusk conspired with Putin to kill former president, rigged elections, subserved PL to Germany and Russia and bribed the French with 3 bilion € military chopper contract to secure his current post. Politicians from his party and he himself vaguely allude to such theories, and that certainly won’t stop when he’s in spotlight.

Posted on 8/10/15 | 12:36 PM CET

Tomek

Unfortunately autor doesn’t understand or doesn’t know where president is located in the polish political system, and obviously overestimating his role.
President of Poland is a head of state, but his role is marginal, mainly representational.
Of course change on this position is important for Poland, but mainly because it’s symbol of incoming changes and destroying of power of the Civil Platform, who ruled supreme for last five years.
For Tusk position in Poland much more important are incoming parliamentary elections, if the Civil Platform will lose power to the Law and Justice, new Prime Minister can realise scenario shown in this article.

Posted on 8/10/15 | 5:29 PM CET

sandy miller

Oh dear, I thought all was well in Poland or are Putin’s scheme’s to eliminate the EU working?

Posted on 8/10/15 | 7:10 PM CET

Despeville

The fate of Tusk is tied to Merkel and her power. If she runs for the 4th term he might survive longer. If not he is finished or perhaps Merkel will discard Tusk then as a tool she used but which grew dull over time and more of a liability than a benefit to her or Germany. Tusk is no friend of Poland in EU and Polish President should seek new coalitions and new bridge of understanding with Germany to oust him.

Posted on 8/10/15 | 8:15 PM CET

alan.ritchie

Poles are not the only ones able to block any extension to Tusk’s appointment don’t forget

Posted on 8/10/15 | 9:26 PM CET

Kwer

The only relevant point is no. 1. Until the parliamentary elections happen all others are pretty much irrelevant given weak positioning of president in Polish constitutional system (president is know by a nickname as a guardian of a chandelier (in his reception room)) – parliament can basically overrule him with absolute majority (50%+1 of all seats). However if PiS gets government then things do in fact change and the rest of above points become relevant.

Posted on 8/16/15 | 3:51 PM CET

AGX

@Kwer
Nickname “guardian of a chandelier ” was invented by Tusk for former president Bronislaw Komorowski. But Andrzej Duda said that he isn’t be a “guardian of chandelier”. And president can veto resolution of parlament. And parliament need 3/5 parliament votes to overrule president. And in 2 months there will be parliamentary election. It seems that every coalition without PiS (Law and Justice) won’t be able to overrule president veto.

Posted on 8/18/15 | 11:50 PM CET

Giovani

Why block? Let him stay in UE. Tusk ha an incredible skills for destroying whatever he touches. He is NOT needed in Poland. UE needs him to be a figure without a shape. Obedient Nobody.

Posted on 8/26/15 | 7:28 PM CET

Giovani

Let him stay in UE as an obedient nobody. Ms.Merkel needs him. Poland DOES NOT!