This is incorrect. You do not need to know the probability of bonus roll success to be able to enumerate how many different ways the above can happen.

sure I do.

If the bonus roll has 25% drop chance as opposed to a 50% drop chance, then they will have drastically different results. Not to mention that with the sample size and how odds works, really anything can happen

Theron/Bloodwatcher 2013!

Originally Posted by Alsompr

Teasing, misdirection. It's the opposite of a spoiler. People expect one thing? BAM! Another thing happens.

If the bonus roll has 25% drop chance as opposed to a 50% drop chance, then they will have drastically different results. Not to mention that with the sample size and how odds works, really anything can happen

You don't need to know. Either they won or they didn't, you're not calculating odds here, but rather different possibilities (note: not PROBABILITIES).

isn't almost winning and completely not winning different possibilities? 2nd place is a different possibility than 3rd place, yet both are in the category of "not winning"

You don't seem to understand how the bonus roll system works. You can't "almost win" or anything like that. If you roll certain numbers, you win. If you don't, you don't win. Think of it as a pass/fail check. You either pass or fail, there is no "almost."

You don't seem to understand how the bonus roll system works. You can't "almost win" or anything like that. If you roll certain numbers, you win. If you don't, you don't win. Think of it as a pass/fail check. You either pass or fail, there is no "almost."

but there is an almost. If I rolled a 49 but the win roll was 50, then I almost won. I didn't win, but I almost did

Theron/Bloodwatcher 2013!

Originally Posted by Alsompr

Teasing, misdirection. It's the opposite of a spoiler. People expect one thing? BAM! Another thing happens.

but there is an almost. If I rolled a 49 but the win roll was 50, then I almost won. I didn't win, but I almost did

But the game won't tell you that. We're not enumerating each individual possible roll, but rather if you won, if you didn't win, or if you didn't roll at all. In your scenario, the game won't tell you "Welp, you were ALMOST there! Just one higher and you would've gotten it. Oh well! Better luck next time!"

Also, the concept of "almost" winning in a pass/fail roll system is an illusion. The pRNG system doesn't work like one of those hammer games at the carnival, where if you just put in a little extra effort you would've won.

And? What has this to do with the possibility of getting an item? You either get it, or you don't. There is no "almost", since "almost" means you didn't get it.

but I almost got it, which is a different possibility than getting it, or not being close to getting it.

---------- Post added 2013-02-13 at 08:00 AM ----------

Originally Posted by Static Transit

But the game won't tell you that. We're not enumerating each individual possible roll, but rather if you won, if you didn't win, or if you didn't roll at all. In your scenario, the game won't tell you "Welp, you were ALMOST there! Just one higher and you would've gotten it. Oh well! Better luck next time!"

Also, the concept of "almost" winning in a pass/fail roll system is an illusion. The pRNG system doesn't work like one of those hammer games at the carnival, where if you just put in a little extra effort you would've won.

Game doesn't tell you a lot of things, doesn't mean it's not there

Theron/Bloodwatcher 2013!

Originally Posted by Alsompr

Teasing, misdirection. It's the opposite of a spoiler. People expect one thing? BAM! Another thing happens.

but I almost got it, which is a different possibility than getting it, or not being close to getting it.

---------- Post added 2013-02-13 at 08:00 AM ----------

Game doesn't tell you a lot of things, doesn't mean it's not there

In my problem statement I intend for each raider to have three possible states: used bonus roll and won no item, used bonus roll and won item, didn't use bonus roll.

I suppose I could rewrite it to:

10 raiders kill a raid boss. Some of those raiders will use a bonus roll. Of those that use a bonus roll, some will either almost win an item, or win an item. In how many different ways can this happen?

This makes four possible states for each raider: used bonus roll and won no item, used bonus roll and won item, used bonus roll and almost won an item, didn't use bonus roll.

Hopefully this rewrite will help you to understand how silly that seems.