REPORT: MIGRATION NUMBERS SET TO RISE AGAIN

State’s unauthorized immigrant population has seen decrease

The number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. seems to have leveled off after the Great Recession and may be set to rise again, according to a report released Monday by the Pew Research Center Hispanic Trends Project.

As of March 2012, the nation had an estimated 11.7 million unauthorized immigrants compared with 11.5 million the year before, a statistically insignificant difference. The population in 2007 was about 12.2 million, the highest number since Pew began providing such figures in 1990, and then dropped to a recession-related low of 11.3 million in 2009.

Various groups issue population statistics for unauthorized immigrants, but those released by Pew are widely cited and generally regarded as the most reliable. The organization bases its calculations on the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey, both conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The latest numbers will almost surely add to the discussion about how the rise and fall of the U.S. economy impacts unauthorized immigration. It is unclear if or how these findings might influence current congressional debate regarding immigration reform, including whether to boost enforcement along the U.S.-Mexico border and whether to issue more visas for both high-skilled and agricultural workers.

Immigration experts stress that the population statistics from recent years are relatively static. More important, they said, the new report indicates the potential for a renewed rise in the flow of unauthorized immigrants.

“This kind of estimate tells us that the number is going up more than it’s going down,” said Jeff Passel, senior demographer for the Hispanic Trends Project. “The improving economy is the sort of thing that could well be a factor here.”

In its report, Pew showed that California continued to see a decrease in unauthorized immigrants — with 2.45 million last year, down from 2.5 million in 2009 and 2010. The population had peaked in the Golden State in 2007, with 2.8 million.

County-level figures were not included in the Monday announcement.

Five of the six states with the most unauthorized immigrants, including California, experienced a dip in that population during the Great Recession. Only Texas saw no drop in that time.

“California is not where the economic gold seems to be,” said John Weeks, a demographer at San Diego State University. “It’s in Texas, North Carolina, other states where there have been increases in the Hispanic population. If you want to know what is happening economically, you follow the migrants and that is where they take you.”

The U.S. economy’s sluggish restart — as well as a variety of factors in Mexico, from higher educational attainment to lower birthrates — contributed to fewer Mexicans entering the United States illegally.

While Mexico is still the predominant origin of unauthorized immigrants who end up in the U.S., that category has shrunk slightly in recent years. In 2012, 52 percent of the unauthorized were from Mexico, down from 57 percent in 2007.

Central American nations accounted for about 15 percent last year, the Caribbean and South America made up 12 percent and Asian countries accounted for 10 percent to 12 percent, Passel said.

“It would not be surprising if the U.S. began to draw more Latin Americans who are not Mexicans, such as Guatemalans and Salvadorans,” said John Skrentny, co-director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies at the University of California San Diego.

Regardless of where unauthorized immigrants originated, the new Pew figures could undermine the broad national coalition of advocates calling for comprehensive immigration reform since the November 2012 presidential election, said Tom Wong, assistant professor of political science at UC San Diego.

“Those seeking to deal a death blow to reform efforts will undoubtedly point to these new numbers,” Wong said. “At the very least, these new numbers will likely reinforce calls by those opposed to reform or those on the fence for bolstered immigration enforcement.”

If the debate centers on enforcement and moves away from a viable path to legalization or citizenship for unauthorized immigrants, it will very much resemble the federal debate in 2005 and 2006, Wong said.

Janice Kephart, national security fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies in Washington, D.C., said the latest Pew figures confirm the inadequacies of the current border-security apparatus and the need for more fencing and technology along the nation’s borders. She has testified against the current Senate immigration-reform bill, saying its security provisions are inadequate, and questioned the Obama administration’s figures on border apprehensions and the unauthorized population.

“The numbers have been increasing all along,” Kephart said. “It is just that the numbers have been suppressed by the administration.”

A 2010 study by Pew researchers found that about two-thirds of the unauthorized had lived in the U.S. for a decade or more. In 2000, the group said most unauthorized immigrants reported having stayed in this country for five to 10 years. The study issued Monday did not address this element.