Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Open Briefing. This month: the attack on tourists in Port El Kantaoui highlights threat of terrorism and organised crime in Tunisia; organised environmental crime continues to threaten the Amazon region; people smuggling and human trafficking through Bulgaria and Romania is likely to increase; and more. Read more

I am delighted to let you know that we have now raised £13,070 towards our fundraising target of £14,000! It has been truly heartwarming to learn just how valued Open Briefing is. But we now have just 19 days to raise the remaining £930 and secure Open Briefing’s future. So if you haven’t done so already, please consider making a donation to help us continue our vital work to promote alternatives to armed conflict and protect human rights. Read more

We have raised just under £7,000 in only two weeks after we launched an urgent appeal to raise the £14,000 we need to keep the doors open at Open Briefing and implement a new fundraising programme. But we still need your support. Please consider making a donation to help us continue our work to promote alternatives to armed conflict and protect human rights. Read more

Russian forces and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have significant advantages over Ukrainian forces in the area of electronic warfare. Russian forces are effectively able to nullify the Ukrainian communications and GPS signals in the regions they are deployed to. The advantages the Russians are enjoying in this area are directly contributing to the losses suffered by the Ukrainian armed forces. Western supporters of Kiev might consider supplying the Ukrainians with defensive capabilities, including electronic countermeasures. Read more

In this journal article for Intelligence and National Security, Open Briefing analyst Kevjn Lim examines the intersection of Big Data and strategic intelligence from a conceptual viewpoint. It argues that Big Data analytics is best used to discern long-term developments, generate intelligence hypotheses, and adduce refuting facts. The article also examines the use of Big Data via social media. It concludes that Big Data should continue to complement traditional subject-matter expertise, supported by game theory, as part of a tripartite analytical framework for strategic intelligence consisting of ‘subtext’, ‘context’ and ‘metatext’. Read more

In addition to our regular briefings and articles, Open Briefing issues occasional press releases to mark particularly newsworthy publications. To receive future press releases by email, journalists can now sign up to our new press list. Read more

Open Briefing is the world’s first civil society intelligence agency. We are a unique nonprofit social enterprise providing groundbreaking intelligence and research services to aid agencies, human rights groups, civil society organisations and concerned citizens. We are an international collaboration of intelligence, military, law enforcement and government professionals striving to make a difference. We are challenging the status quo. We are your intelligence agency. But we need your help. Read more

China views Iran as a central element in its much-touted Silk Road Economic Belt, which aims to extend Beijing’s influence overland through Central Asia to the Persian Gulf and Europe. This article for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Open Briefing analyst Kevjn Lim discusses Iran’s importance to China, including the geostrategic Iran plays as China’s most convenient non-Russian access route to open waters and the only east-west/north-south intersection for Central Asian trade. Read more

In this journal article for Comparative Strategy, Open Briefing analyst Kevjn Lim reviews national security decision-making in the Iranian context by focusing on institutions, formal process and individuals. He specifically examines the Supreme National Security Council, which formalises and embodies the decision-making process, as well as the Revolutionary Guards, which epitomise both the influence of institutions as well as the centrality of the agent-individual. Read more

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Open Briefing. This month: the Australian Crime Commission has highlighted the links between terrorism and organised crime; the World Health Organisation has called for an end to the global illicit tobacco trade; the Criminal Justice Inspectorate of Northern Ireland has reported on how organised crime groups are becoming increasingly involved with ‘waste crime’; and more. Read more

The United States has led the way in developing a new way of conceptualising and executing war. With the rise of austerity in Europe, other Western states have adopted part or all of this ‘remote-control warfare’ approach. However, the assessment of recent trends contained in this report makes it increasingly clear that remote-control warfare has its limits. As such, this report makes 31 specific recommendations to the British government. Read more

Open Briefing has today published a new report outlining 31 recommendations for the British government regarding remote-control warfare. What is ultimately needed is a comprehensive rethink of defence and security strategy and a move away from remote-control warfare towards more enduring, accountable and effective responses to today’s multiple security threats. The recommendations contained in this report would enable the government to to mitigate some of the pitfalls of the current strategy. Read more

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Open Briefing. This month: fighters from the Caribbean region are travelling to fight with extremists in Syria and Iraq; how law enforcement agencies must develop an understanding of the business structures of organised criminal gangs if such organisations are to be effectively undermined; political corruption and money laundering in Nigeria; and more. Read more

Political and security risk updates from Open Briefing and Bradburys Global Risk Partners. This month: increasing pressure from United States risks China hastening land reclamation projects to cement territorial claims in South China Sea; Hungary’s far-right party on the rise; Syrian rebels make significant gains in government territory but Islamic State poses looming threat; and more. Read more

Monthly briefing from the Open Briefing intelligence unit on developments in remote-control warfare. This month: US special operations forces withdraw from Yemen, severely limiting US counter-terrorism campaign; advocacy groups seek halt to autonomous military vehicles and weapons; China’s cyber operations acknowledged in influential People’s Liberation Army publication; and more. Read more

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Dr Mary Young. This month includes the task force the Australian government has launched to combat the crystal meth epidemic in the country, how El Salvador is struggling to cope with the collapse of the truce between the MS-13 and Calle 18 gangs, discussion of transnational organised crime by leaders at the US-CARICOM summit in Jamaica, and more. Read more

Political and security risk updates from Open Briefing and Bradburys Global Risk Partners. This month: summit of the Americas will test US relations with Cuba and Venezuela; relations between China and Myanmar sour as conflict with Kokang rebels continues; Iran and P5+1 reach outline agreement on Tehran’s controversial nuclear programme; and more. Read more

Open Briefing attended the Egyptian government’s recent high-level economic conference. The Egypt Economic Development Conference was designed to support President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi’s intention to strengthen Egypt’s troubled economy. It generated clear optimism, but caution and scepticism prevail among many Western diplomats in the aftermath of the conference. Read more

Open Briefing senior analyst Scott Hickie was recently interviewed for the International Affairs Forum, published by the Center for International Relations in Washington DC. In the interview, Scott discusses some of the findings of our July 2013 report into corruption within the pharmaceutical supply chain to the developing world. Read more

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Dr Mary Young. This month’s spotlight on Polar regions highlights how transnational organised crime gangs are exploiting the Arctic’s vast uninhabited areas and lack of dedicated police officers and criminal intelligence officers for human, drug and weapons trafficking and other illegal activities. It also discusses the US Coast Guard’s evolving efforts to tackle such crimes in the Arctic. Read more

The conflicting mandates and lack of coordination among Chinese government agencies, many of which strive to increase their power and budget, have stoked tensions in the South China Sea according to a new report from the International Crisis Group.

The authors of Stirring up the South China Sea argue that repeated proposals to establish a more centralised mechanism have foundered while the only agency with a coordinating mandate, the foreign ministry, does not have the authority or resources to manage other actors. The Chinese navy’s use of maritime tensions to justify its modernisation, and nationalist sentiment around territorial claims, further compound the problem. But more immediate conflict risks lie in the growing number of law enforcement and paramilitary vessels playing an increasing role in disputed territories without a clear legal framework. They have been involved in most of the recent incidents, including the prolonged standoff between China and the Philippines in April 2012 in Scarborough Reef. Any future solution to the South China Sea disputes will require a consistent policy from China executed uniformly throughout the different levels of government along with the authority to enforce it.

China’s maritime policy circles use the term “Nine dragons stirring up the sea” to describe the lack of coordination among the various government agencies involved in the South China Sea. Most of them have traditionally been domestic policy actors with little experience in foreign affairs. While some agencies act aggressively to compete with one another for greater portions of the budget pie, others (primarily local governments) attempt to expand their economic activities in disputed areas due to their single-minded focus on economic growth. Yet despite the domestic nature of their motivations, the implications of their activities are increasingly international. Other factors – both internal and external to China – have also been responsible for increasing tensions, but they are beyond the scope of this study. Regional dynamics, including arms build-ups, competition for resources and increasing nationalist sentiment in other claimant countries are the subject of a separate report.

Effective coordination of actors is also hampered by a lack of clarity over precisely what is supposed to be defended. China has yet to publicly clarify the legal status of the so called nine-dashed line that appears on most Chinese maps, encompassing most of the South China Sea. While the foreign ministry has taken steps to try to reassure its neighbours that Beijing does not claim the entire South China Sea and has at least partially justified its claims on the basis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the government cannot easily back down from claims to significant portions of the sea that are based on historical presence in the region. Local government agencies take advantage of this lack of legal clarity when engaging in activities in disputed areas.

Beijing has deliberately imbued the South China Sea disputes with nationalist sentiment by perpetually highlighting China’s historical claims. This policy has led to a growing domestic demand for assertive action. While Beijing has been able to rein in nationalist sentiment over the South China Sea when it adopts a specific policy, this heated environment still limits its policy options and its ability to manage the issue.

In mid-2011, as tensions in the sea led to neighbouring countries seeking closer military ties with the United States, China adopted a less assertive approach. While Beijing’s overall emphasis on maintaining the status quo still includes a preference for bilateral negotiations, it is strengthening regional relations through high-level visits and multilateral engagement by signing with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) the Guidelines for the Implementation of the Declaration of Conduct (DOC) in the South China Sea.

Internally, China has taken measures to calm nationalist sentiment and discourage aggressive actions by local agencies. However, China’s current approach remains characterised by numerous ministerial-level actors and law enforcement agencies with no effective coordinating authority and no high-level long-term policy. While repeated and failed attempts to establish a centralised mechanism on maritime management show a lack of political will to address the coordination issue, Beijing might also see benefit in ambiguity. As long as this situation exists, however, its new conciliatory approach is unlikely to be sustainable. Ultimately, the ability to manage relations in the South China Sea and resolve disputes will present a major test of China’s peaceful rise.

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