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A colleague of mine, Tesla owner, intends on driving her family from Miami to Atlanta in order to escape the (possible) worst of Irma. She's asking what I would do, and I'm not sure how to advise her.

She'll need to return to work next Tuesday, meaning she'll need to head back on Monday. Assuming a cat 5 hits parts of Florida, I have no idea how to guesstimate how quickly the supercharger network would be brought back online if the grid were to go down anywhere along her route.

The forecast has shifted the path. I would not leave. Looks to be just like Mathew last year which was a crap ton of work and hype for what turned out to be practically nothing in the grand scheme of things. There was 2 total trees in my entire community that had to be removed. And one of those was just a leaner. Never lost power.

I live in West Palm Beach.

You know things aren't going to be really bad when you hear the disappointment in the voice of Jim Cantore when he explains the new predicted path. Especially when he starts saying "You're not out of the woods yet". That is weather person speak for "You are out of the woods".

The forecast has shifted the path. I would not leave. Looks to be just like Mathew last year which was a crap ton of work and hype for what turned out to be practically nothing in the grand scheme of things. There was 2 total trees in my entire community that had to be removed. And one of those was just a leaner. Never lost power.

I live in West Palm Beach.

You know things aren't going to be really bad when you hear the disappointment in the voice of Jim Cantore when he explains the new predicted path. Especially when he starts saying "You're not out of the woods yet". That is weather person speak for "You are out of the woods".

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Thanks for the info neighbor! Will be sure to pass it on.

Like me, she's got a couple of little ones and hasn't ever been through a hurricane. She figured it would be a fun distraction for the fam to get away, as opposed to staying glued to the tv in her already boarded up home watching repeating images of irma.

Of course, the family has to do what they feel is most appropriate. I happen to be in a relatively new home with all the necessary protection so I am not concerned. If their home is old and not up to modern building code or prone to flooding it might be a good idea to leave. If they do, I would do it now. Traffic will be a nightmare later today/tomorrow. Be sure to have lodging secured through Tuesday of next week at a minimum.

In South Florida, gas stations are required to have backup generators so they are operational during a storm but I don't know if that is true anywhere else. I would probably take a rental ICE car and fill up as soon as they are in range of being able to drive all the way home without the need for an additional gas stop. Somewhere around Lake City or Ocala should do it.

The forecast has shifted the path. I would not leave. Looks to be just like Mathew last year which was a crap ton of work and hype for what turned out to be practically nothing in the grand scheme of things. There was 2 total trees in my entire community that had to be removed. And one of those was just a leaner. Never lost power.

I live in West Palm Beach.

You know things aren't going to be really bad when you hear the disappointment in the voice of Jim Cantore when he explains the new predicted path. Especially when he starts saying "You're not out of the woods yet". That is weather person speak for "You are out of the woods".

Click to expand...

Sure... Shouldn't be too bad . Just the largest and most severe hurricane ever in the Atlantic Ocean and heading straight for Florida which averages what... Oh yeah 10 feet above sea level! But I've never been in a hurricane like that so what do I know.

The forecast has shifted the path. I would not leave. Looks to be just like Mathew last year which was a crap ton of work and hype for what turned out to be practically nothing in the grand scheme of things. There was 2 total trees in my entire community that had to be removed. And one of those was just a leaner. Never lost power.

I live in West Palm Beach.

You know things aren't going to be really bad when you hear the disappointment in the voice of Jim Cantore when he explains the new predicted path. Especially when he starts saying "You're not out of the woods yet". That is weather person speak for "You are out of the woods".

Click to expand...

Don't get me wrong, I hope you are correct and that storm effects are minimal. I was just trying to say I would err on the side of caution and safety when lives are at stake. Stay safe!

A colleague of mine, Tesla owner, intends on driving her family from Miami to Atlanta in order to escape the (possible) worst of Irma.

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It's worth noting that the GFS 06z ensemble has shifted significantly to the east. We'll need to see whether the ECMWF follows suit, but expect the NHC track to move somewhat east. Right now GFS thinks it's more likely than not that Florida won't get hit at all. That said, it's just one run of one ensemble.

Assuming a cat 5 hits parts of Florida, I have no idea how to guesstimate how quickly the supercharger network would be brought back online if the grid were to go down anywhere along her route.

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The supercharger network has proven to be amazingly resilient. There were only brief outages, if anything, in Texas and western Louisiana from Harvey. Superchargers survived where the buildings that they were attached to were heavily damaged.

Part of the issue is that they're pretty much by definition connected to high power feeds, which rarely go out. If the sort of power supply to a supercharger is out, everybody's power is out in the whole area. They're not little branch feeds that supply gas stations and homes.

Furthermore: Irma will not hit the US as a Cat 5. She's extremely powerful now, but she is not expected to maintain this strength indefinitely; a Cat 3-4 landfall is much more likely. That said, her wind field will significantly grow, so she'll be spreading her strongest winds over a much larger area. Likewise, the surge will not diminish as the center weakens but the wind field grows (and surge is usually the biggest killer).

That is weather person speak for "You are out of the woods".

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No, it is not, and it's comments like this that lead people to making stupid decisions. The ensembles still have plenty of tracks that hit Florida. Until these go away, hits *are* very much realistic probabilities.

*Always* trust the NHC. That said, the NHC tends to lag behind the models, so if you want to get a leg up on what the NHC is going to say next, follow the ensembles. You can see them here:

ECMWF is somewhat more reliable than GFS, but only updated half as frequently.

Also, when it comes to the NHC, I have to fault them for their cone, because most people misunderstand it, so they really should eliminate it and replace it with a "pseudo-ensemble" graph that people will understand better. When people see a circle, their mind inherently sees the center as "The eye will hit here unless the NHC is wrong", and areas just outside the circle as "The eye will not hit here unless the NHC is wrong". That's not what the graph means at all. The circles define areas where there's a 2 in 3 chance that the center of the storm will be "somewhere within the circle" at that point in time. There's a 1 in 3 chance that it won't; it may pass through sooner or later, or not at all. The graphs go against peoples' instincts when they see such a graph, and hence IMHO NHC should discontinue them and replace them with something better.

That said: trust the NHC's analysis. They take into account everything. Don't trust random people on the internet over what they have to say. That includes me. If I say something that happens to contradict the NHC, ignore me and listen to them.

On the topic of evacuation: There's absolutely nothing wrong with leaving. People who leave should *never be made fun for doing so*, unless they're needlessly contributing to evacuation problems for others who are at more risk than they are. It doesn't matter if the eyewall doesn't hit them; living in the aftermath of a hurricane, even a non-direct hit, isn't fun. My sister stuck around for Ike, thinking it'd be fun. First off, the experience of the storm itself is sitting around for hours wondering if a tree or a piece of a neighbor's house is going to crash into yours. Afterwards, there's debris all over the roads that doesn't clear quickly, flooded roads, etc, so you're generally stuck in your house. Wherein, if the power's off, is a miserable sweltering environment in the aftermath of a hurricane.

To anyone leaving now: kudos to you. Yes, the hurricane might not even hit Florida. But it might and it might be bad. No, the odds of, say, you getting the eyewall are not high. They're actually quite low. But they're real, and the consequences of high winds, rains, and particularly surge are very real. Don't second guess your decision; sometimes humans have to make decisions based on incomplete information, that's part of being an adult. Enjoy your unplanned vacation. Make it fun. Then come back, and if there's a mess left behind, clean it up and get on with life. If not... at least you got a vacation out of it.

Now, to anyone who waits until the very last minute, and clogs the roads when people are fleeing from high-risk areas when they're only in a moderate or low risk area.... don't. Stay home. The time to decide to leave is before the highways clog, not after. Yes, that means leaving before there's any certainty as to where the storm is actually going. It means making a decision based on incomplete information. But again: welcome to adulthood. If you waited too long, accept your decision.

Having grown up in Miami/Fort Lauderdale, I have to second others who say to not take the risk lightly. I was there for Andrew, (T.S.) Gordon, Wilma, and others. Andrew was worse than Wilma overall, but we were in Lauderdale by then and fared better w/ Andrew. For Wilma, we had no running water for 11 days and no electricity for 17. The house itself was fine. Both cars took minor damage. I agree with @KarenRei , don't make fun of anyone who decides to leave early. Once the panic and rush set in, don't leave if you are low risk and prepared. As for taking the Tesla or an ICE, I personally would take the Tesla as it likely is higher-valued, but either way, you should be ok. Many gas stations will be on generator if they lose power (if they are even open at all and have gas left) and the Superchargers are much more resilient than people suspect. These aren't power outages like residences experience. If the power at a Supercharger is out, you likely have other major concerns too. 17 days without electricity made Lauderdale's sewage system horrid!

I also concur that the tracking diagrams are generally misunderstood and could be tweaked slightly for clarity (but don't overwhelm people with TMI).

It's worth noting that the GFS 06z ensemble has shifted significantly to the east. We'll need to see whether the ECMWF follows suit, but expect the NHC track to move somewhat east. Right now GFS thinks it's more likely than not that Florida won't get hit at all. That said, it's just one run of one ensemble.

The supercharger network has proven to be amazingly resilient. There were only brief outages, if anything, in Texas and western Louisiana from Harvey. Superchargers survived where the buildings that they were attached to were heavily damaged.

Part of the issue is that they're pretty much by definition connected to high power feeds, which rarely go out. If the sort of power supply to a supercharger is out, everybody's power is out in the whole area. They're not little branch feeds that supply gas stations and homes.

Furthermore: Irma will not hit the US as a Cat 5. She's extremely powerful now, but she is not expected to maintain this strength indefinitely; a Cat 3-4 landfall is much more likely. That said, her wind field will significantly grow, so she'll be spreading her strongest winds over a much larger area. Likewise, the surge will not diminish as the center weakens but the wind field grows (and surge is usually the biggest killer).

No, it is not, and it's comments like this that lead people to making stupid decisions. The ensembles still have plenty of tracks that hit Florida. Until these go away, hits *are* very much realistic probabilities.

*Always* trust the NHC. That said, the NHC tends to lag behind the models, so if you want to get a leg up on what the NHC is going to say next, follow the ensembles. You can see them here:

ECMWF is somewhat more reliable than GFS, but only updated half as frequently.

Also, when it comes to the NHC, I have to fault them for their cone, because most people misunderstand it, so they really should eliminate it and replace it with a "pseudo-ensemble" graph that people will understand better. When people see a circle, their mind inherently sees the center as "The eye will hit here unless the NHC is wrong", and areas just outside the circle as "The eye will not hit here unless the NHC is wrong". That's not what the graph means at all. The circles define areas where there's a 2 in 3 chance that the center of the storm will be "somewhere within the circle" at that point in time. There's a 1 in 3 chance that it won't; it may pass through sooner or later, or not at all. The graphs go against peoples' instincts when they see such a graph, and hence IMHO NHC should discontinue them and replace them with something better.

That said: trust the NHC's analysis. They take into account everything. Don't trust random people on the internet over what they have to say. That includes me. If I say something that happens to contradict the NHC, ignore me and listen to them.

On the topic of evacuation: There's absolutely nothing wrong with leaving. People who leave should *never be made fun for doing so*, unless they're needlessly contributing to evacuation problems for others who are at more risk than they are. It doesn't matter if the eyewall doesn't hit them; living in the aftermath of a hurricane, even a non-direct hit, isn't fun. My sister stuck around for Ike, thinking it'd be fun. First off, the experience of the storm itself is sitting around for hours wondering if a tree or a piece of a neighbor's house is going to crash into yours. Afterwards, there's debris all over the roads that doesn't clear quickly, flooded roads, etc, so you're generally stuck in your house. Wherein, if the power's off, is a miserable sweltering environment in the aftermath of a hurricane.

To anyone leaving now: kudos to you. Yes, the hurricane might not even hit Florida. But it might and it might be bad. No, the odds of, say, you getting the eyewall are not high. They're actually quite low. But they're real, and the consequences of high winds, rains, and particularly surge are very real. Don't second guess your decision; sometimes humans have to make decisions based on incomplete information, that's part of being an adult. Enjoy your unplanned vacation. Make it fun. Then come back, and if there's a mess left behind, clean it up and get on with life. If not... at least you got a vacation out of it.

Now, to anyone who waits until the very last minute, and clogs the roads when people are fleeing from high-risk areas when they're only in a moderate or low risk area.... don't. Stay home. The time to decide to leave is before the highways clog, not after. Yes, that means leaving before there's any certainty as to where the storm is actually going. It means making a decision based on incomplete information. But again: welcome to adulthood. If you waited too long, accept your decision.

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For someone that lives in Iceland you sure seem to have an unusual amount of interest and knowledge of hurricanes but thanks for the info.

Regarding weather person speak... I've lived in FL all my 44yrs and I won't say it is a 100% guarantee (cause it's rare anything is) but when they go from hysteria to you're not out of the woods talk you can almost certainly expect less than what was initially expected. They'll still be a mess in the aftermath but not catastrophic damage. Plus the storm is moving fast so flooding will be not much different than a really bad torrential downpour that we get a few times a year now. Hurricane Mathew last year was a Category 4 and this storm is tracking almost identically as of now and there was little effect to my daily life and zero damage to my property. I never even lost power.

I am just speaking from a long history of living in FL. Obviously, nothing is a guarantee but that is how I see it. Everyone should do what they feel is best for their family. I think I made that clear. The original poster came on here asking for advice and I stand behind what I posted. It is up to them to proceed how they feel fit as nobody on here can guarantee anything.

Sure... Shouldn't be too bad . Just the largest and most severe hurricane ever in the Atlantic Ocean and heading straight for Florida which averages what... Oh yeah 10 feet above sea level! But I've never been in a hurricane like that so what do I know.

I don't see any need to ding someone for leaving Miami. I grew up in Cape Fear, NC area and had 3 hurricanes as a young adult. Power loss sucks! Andrew and Wilma knocked out power to hundreds of thousands and some had no power for weeks. In S Florida in September with no AC? No thanks.

If I could take off and drive up to Atlanta for a week I'd do it but I'd leave on Friday and come back the next Friday. To the poster that spent 44 years in FL and making light of it I wonder where you were in Andrew? Our family had 2 immediate members move family construction company and live in FL for 3 years doing repairs/rebuilds. Made millions. If you know your neighborhood is good on power loss and you have a good roof, you'll be ok but...the whole situation can be lousy.

Our best project manager is in Houston, he's fine. His cousin 15mins away had notice that his house will be condemned. Hurricane issues are like things in real estate...very local.

No, get your facts straight. And this is why people should never think they're smarter than experts (in this case, experts being the NHC).

You posted baseline tracks. That's not what you need to get a sense of where a storm is going. Look up what an "ensemble forecast" is

I assume you've heard of the so-called "butterfly effect". It's the reason you can't predict the weather accurately long in advance - small randomness amplifies further and further over time until the differences make the forecast and reality completely different. In an ensemble forecast, you run the same model many times, but you make tiny tweaks to the current status - pressure, temperature, winds, etc. These differences amplify over time, and you end up with different results. It gives you a sense of how the real-world randomness of nature might affect your track.

What do the ensembles show for Irma? Here's the most recent ones:

ECMWF is a bit more reliable, but also not updated as frequently.

Let me repeat your claim for emphasis:

There is not one single predicted path of the hurricane that has it making landfall in south florida.

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NO. This is false. There are many paths that make landfall in south Florida. Your ignorance of how models work led you to make this false claim. Which is why you always trust the NHC. The experts. Not random people on the internet (including, by the way, me). I hope I don't seem overly harsh here, but it's important to put a lot of emphasis on this point.

Right now, a more easterly path is probably more probable. With the way the ensembles are trending, the NHC will probably move the centerline of the cone slightly to the east. But they won't move it too quickly, because the ensembles frequently do a bit of a windshield wiper impression, going back and forth, while the NHC tries to capture the long-term trends rather than freaking people out by jumping side to side every day.

For someone that lives in Iceland you sure seem to have an unusual amount of interest and knowledge of hurricanes but thanks for the info.

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I grew up in Houston, and still have family there. Plus, up here we get the remnants of your storms

I don't see any need to ding someone for leaving Miami. I grew up in Cape Fear, NC area and had 3 hurricanes as a young adult. Power loss sucks! Andrew and Wilma knocked out power to hundreds of thousands and some had no power for weeks. In S Florida in September with no AC? No thanks.

If I could take off and drive up to Atlanta for a week I'd do it but I'd leave on Friday and come back the next Friday. To the poster that spent 44 years in FL and making light of it I wonder where you were in Andrew? Our family had 2 immediate members move family construction company and live in FL for 3 years doing repairs/rebuilds. Made millions. If you know your neighborhood is good on power loss and you have a good roof, you'll be ok but...the whole situation can be lousy.

Our best project manager is in Houston, he's fine. His cousin 15mins away had notice that his house will be condemned. Hurricane issues are like things in real estate...very local.

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I was in Western Broward County during Andrew which is now the new Hialeah. We did not leave our home and we only lost some trees because Andrew hit South Miami just like it was predicted to do. My Dad works for FP&L and spent months down there fixing everything.

LET ME MAKE IT CLEAR FOR THOSE THAT CAN'T COMPREHEND...

Hurricanes can be catastrophic and destroy lives, property, businesses, and practically everything in it's path. Andrew was predicted to be catastrophic and it was. I NEVER MADE LIGHT OF A HURRICANCE'S DESTRUCTION. I was making light of the tone of the weather forecasters predictions.... At no point did they say we are out of the woods for Hurricane Andrew. But they are now saying that about Irma. I am specifically talking about IRMA. Not Andrew, Not Wilma, or any other storm. I also didn't "DING" anyone for wanting to leave. Just offered my advice like the OP requested.

NO. This is false. There are many paths that make landfall in south Florida. Your ignorance of how models work led you to make this false claim. Which is why you always trust the NHC. The experts. Not random people on the internet (including, by the way, me).

And best of luck to you and all the forum members in Florida. Andrew sure was a mess and now you've got ...so so insurers on the hook for most of the homes. Lots of near misses over the last 15 years but no reason to become incautious now.