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3 ways Spain could avoid fresh elections

MADRID — Spain entered uncharted waters Friday when Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez failed in his second attempt to become prime minister, becoming the first politician in the country’s recent history to suffer such a fate.

Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP), Pablo Iglesias’ far-left Podemos (We Can) as well as minor leftist and regional parties all voted against Sánchez, who had the support of Albert Rivera’s centrist Ciudadanos (Citizens).

“Your party is over,” said Rajoy. “You lost the elections with the worst result in history and you have also lost this investiture.”

“My only failure would have been to reject the head of the state’s offer (to form a government),” replied Sánchez, mocking Rajoy for turning down the chance to forge a coalition.

Talks will continue until May 2, but if no coalition deal is struck, parliament will be dissolved and new elections held on June 26. According to most observers, that is the most likely outcome.

There are three scenarios, however, in which the country could avoid a return to the ballot box.

1. Rajoy resigns

If the PP leader goes, an understanding of sorts between the Socialists (PSOE) and the PP could in theory be reached. It could be that the PP agrees to support Sánchez as prime minister while it focuses on solving the party’s many corruption problems while in opposition.

With Rajoy out of the picture, the PSOE and PP could even agree to form a grand coalition under the leadership of a new PP chief or a third party candidate — there is even talk of Ciudadanos’ Rivera becoming prime minister in a so-called “Operation Borgen,” a reference to the Danish political TV drama.

Such an agreement, although potentially dangerous for the PSOE, could be more acceptable to its voters than the risk of directly supporting Rajoy now to becomeprime minister, especially at a time when the party is being challenged by Podemos for control of the Spanish Left.

The biggest obstacle to this solution is that Rajoy does not want to step down and his party backs him, at least publicly. Although some high ranking party members secretly hope for a change, the PP lacks the internal mechanisms to oust its leader.

Even if Rajoy steps down, it is not clear that the PSOE would support a new PP candidate or another alternative to Sánchez.

“A grand coalition could be very harmful for the PSOE,” said Lluis Orriols, professor at Carlos III University in Madrid. Supporting another party’s candidate could be seen as giving in to the conservatives at a time when the Spanish political landscape is being transformed and the PSOE risks being overtaken on the left.

2. A Podemos slump

Pablo Iglesias’ strategy has been clear for a long time. “Our vital goal this year is to overtake PSOE,” he wrote in the New Left Review, “even if we don’t manage to outstrip the PP.”

“At that stage, the PSOE will either accept the leadership of Podemos or commit political suicide by submitting to that of the PP.”

After December’s elections, Podemos set out tough conditions for joining a coalition with the PSOE (Iglesias becoming deputy prime minister, a binding referendum on Catalan independence, and a €96 billion increase in public spending) and eventually demanded that Sánchez break his agreement with Ciudadanos.

He wanted so much that many saw it as a bet on new elections, where Iglesias would have a second chance at overtaking the PSOE.

Opinion polls this year have been unpredictable, but indicate that voters could punish parties perceived to be pushing for new elections. If the PSOE can pin the blame on Podemos for rejecting potential deals in favor of fresh ballots, the leftist leader may reconsider his position and seek a last-minute deal with Sánchez.

Research by polling firm Metroscopia on Friday showed that 39 percent of Podemos voters would have preferred to work with a Socialist-led government.

“Pablo Iglesias is the only one responsible for keeping Mariano Rajoy in office,” Sánchez said Friday.

Much of Podemos’ future success depends on its ability to keep alliances with minor leftist parties in regions such as Catalonia, Galicia and Valencia, as well as creating a new coalition with Popular Unity (the old Communist Party), which won a million votes in December.

3. A change of direction for the PSOE

Much will have to change inside the PSOE for it to accept Podemos’ conditions to negotiate a leftist coalition. The party’s old guard, the regional bosses and the economic establishment all oppose such a move.

Sánchez was elected in 2014 and lacks the power to overcome such strong opposition from within his party. Only an internal battle in which he challenged the establishment by obtaining the support of a majority of party members could force such a change.

Sánchez is facing a party federal congress in May, which is when a new leader could be anointed, but there is unlikely to be an internal power struggle at such a delicate time.