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Three Defunding Myths

In less than a week, the continuing resolution (CR) that is
currently funding the government will expire, possibly
precipitating what one and all refer to as a “government
shutdown.” This term is usually uttered in terms that suggest
an event falling in severity somewhere between Hurricane Katrina
and the zombie apocalypse.

Unfortunately, much of the debate surrounding this question has
been misleading, if not completely wrong. Among the most frequently
repeated myths:

Republicans voted to shut down the government.
House Republicans voted this week to fund the government through
December. In fact, the CR that Republicans passed would actually
increase federal spending by roughly $21 billion over current law.
They did include a provision, or rider, prohibiting the use of any
money for implementation of Obamacare, but that would have no
effect on the rest of government. On the Senate side, one could
argue that, if Senator Cruz is successful in his filibuster of the
House CR, Republicans should be held responsible for the
consequences. On the other hand, if Senate Democrats refuse to pass
the House CR, they would be responsible for whatever followed.
Regardless, the only bill on the table right now does not
shut down the government.

A government shutdown shuts down the government. In
reality more of the government is likely to stay open than to
close. For example, government activities that have “some
reasonable and articulable connection between the function to be
performed and the safety of human life or the protection of
property” will continue regardless of whether Congress passes
a CR. This includes not only such obvious things as military
operations and homeland security, but also air-traffic control,
health care at Veterans Administration hospitals, law enforcement
and criminal investigations, oversight of food and drug safety,
nuclear safety, and so forth. In fact, much as we might wish it
otherwise, even the IRS would continue to function under such a
“shutdown.” Moreover, since entitlement programs, like
Social Security and Medicare, are not subject to annual
appropriations, they would also continue.

That is not to suggest that a government shutdown is a good
thing or that there won’t be some pain involved. Government
employees, including the military, won’t get paid on time
— although even they will probably receive their pay
retroactively once a CR is finally passed. Passport applications
will go unprocessed; education and training programs will be
suspended; parks and monuments will close; and vendors, including
many small businesses, will have their payments delayed. Further,
one can expect President Obama to make sure as many people as
possible are inconvenienced in order to stoke public anger. (Recall
how cuts from the sequester were manipulated.)

Government shutdowns inevitably hurt Republicans. Those
arguing that a government shutdown will cost Republicans
electorally in 2014 point to the 1995 shutdown that grew out of the
impasse between President Clinton and Newt Gingrich’s House
Republicans. However, despite the story that has grown up around
that shutdown, there is little evidence that the shutdown, which
lasted 28 days total, actually hurt Republicans. In fact, in the
1996 elections that followed, Republicans lost only two House
seats, far less than expected considering the gains they made in
1994. The GOP actually gained two seats in the Senate.

True, Bill Clinton won reelection in 1996, and there is some
evidence that the shutdown and his response may have helped his
standing. But recall that Bob Dole was an extraordinarily weak
Republican opponent, and Clinton won only 49 percent of the vote in
a three-way race (Ross Perot took 8.4 percent that year).

How would the public react today? The polling is ambiguous.
Republicans point to polls showing how unpopular Obamacare is.
Democrats cite polls showing the public opposed to a government
shutdown over the issue. More telling, perhaps, is a recent Pew
poll showing that voters would blame both parties nearly equally
for any shutdown.

Of course none of this tells us whether the Republican strategy
is a good one. There’s no obvious pathway that realistically
leads to defunding Obamacare. The spectacle of Senator Cruz
filibustering legislation that he had earlier urged Republicans to
pass hardly seems like a winning political move.

But whatever the outcome of this debate — and whatever
strategy Republicans eventually pursue — it helps to
understand what we’re discussing. Neither side has been quite
honest about it.