PRE-MATCH BRIEFING: CARDIFF CITY V CHELSEA – PART TWO

Club historian Rick Glanvill and club statistician Paul Dutton provide the final section of their final preview of the season…

WE HAVE HISTORYLast weekend Cardiff City’s relegation from English football’s upper tier was confirmed, their first since 1961/62 – when they were accompanied by Chelsea. Tommy Docherty’s side roared back the following season while the Bluebirds’ return took 51 years.

The Blues’ biggest away win over the Welsh side was in March 1977, and is also one of the most memorable away trips during another of the team’s triumphant marches back to the top flight under Eddie McCreadie.

The Scots manager had cleverly blended together a squad of veterans and novices that hit the top of Division Two in late September and stayed there. Front-running for so long was taking its toll, though, and by the time the journey across the Severn arrived the Blues were staring at one win since the turn of the year.

At 35, Peter Bonetti was keeping goal for the first time in that worrying run, and made one or two brilliant and perfectly timed saves. The hosts scented blood as Chelsea started doggedly but uninspired, and centre-back Steve Wicks also executed a brilliant last-gasp tackle on City’s top scorer, Evans.

Those timely interventions encouraged a much better second-half showing, with midfielders Ray Lewington and Garry Stanley taking the game to the Welsh side and, vitally, helping break the deadlock through Ian Britton on the hour mark.

Cardiff’s attempts to hit back left them more open and a through-ball defeated their offside trap, allowing Kenny Swain to make it two.

The hosts pulled one back when Dwyer headed a cross that finally eluded the Cat, but Stanley scored the goal he deserved in the last minute to make it 3-1. The victory was as crucial psychologically as it was for the two points and, despite a few hiccups, the Blues were celebrating promotion in May.

This weekend Cardiff host Chelsea in the league for the first time in 30 years. The last occasion was in our 1983/84 promotion campaign in the old Second Division. Cardiff were 3-0 ahead after 25 minutes and Chelsea scored three goals in the last 14 minutes to secure a valuable point (pictured below).

DAYS SINCEChelsea played Cardiff away in the top flight: 19,240Cardiff beat Chelsea in a league game: 12,090Arsenal won a trophy: 3,277Liverpool won the league: 8,772

TACTICAL BRIEFWith many Chelsea youngsters involved in the Premier League Under-21 play-off final three days later, or called up for England duty, Jose Mourinho is likely to field a side similar to the one that drew at home to Norwich last weekend.

Midfielder Ramires remains suspended, Oscar may still need time to recover from a hip injury and Petr Cech has successfully undergone surgery on his dislocated shoulder that will rule him out for eight to 10 weeks. Tomas Kalas, who so impressed in the brilliant win at Anfield, may see some action.

For the hosts, highly rated winger Mats Moller Daehli, right-back Kevin Theophile Catherine, and defensive midfielder Gary Medel should have recovered from the virus that swept through their squad last weekend. Craig Noone remains doubtful with a groin strain.

Cardiff manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer managed back-to-back Tippeligaen titles in Norway but has not yet made his mark in the English game on the bench as he once did coming off it.

Throughout his coaching career, the former striker has favoured attacking full-backs, whether in a 4-3-3 formation with wide forwards, a 4-1-4-1 with wingers or 5-3-2 with three central defenders – as used, fatefully, in the 6-3 home drubbing by Liverpool.

His key successes to date have come with the 4-1-4-1 line-up, Kenwyne Jones or Fraizer Campbell roaming alone upfront, with Bo-Kyung Kim and Peter Whittingham and Jordon Mutch tucked in behind. He likes to tweak his formations and move players around during matches.

With combative Medel (pictured below) as holding midfielder, the set-up is intended to allow the wingers and full-backs to overload wide areas. The brightness of Wilfried Zaha was instrumental in carving out one or two good goalscoring opportunities early on.

Solskjaer is said to have a precise attention to detail, and was note-taking while still a player, aiming for self-improvement. If so he must be scribbling furiously at his team’s failure at the basics of defending: failing to stay tight to a man or close down, block crosses and clear danger decisively.

Those are weaknesses Chelsea’s attacking midfielders – which may include the Brazil-bound Eden Hazard, Willian and Andre Schurrle – should be ready to exploit right up to the final whistle. The Bluebirds have conceded 26 goals in the last quarter-of-an-hour of matches, 19 more than they have scored in that tine and 12 more than they have let in during any other 15-minute period.

Arguably, the least guilty player has been David Marshall, whose excellent goalkeeping kept Cardiff competitive much of the season. However he will be wary of Samuel Eto’o should he play – the Cameroonian nipped in and stole the ball off him to set up Eden Hazard’s equaliser at the Bridge.

A lapse by David Luiz had allowed Mutch to open the scoring against the run of play for Malky Mackay’s team. Eto’o, Oscar and Hazard, again, completed the Chelsea win.

The atmosphere in the stadium on Sunday may influence proceedings. Professional players who are playing for their futures – either at Cardiff or elsewhere, and even in a World Cup year – should want to bow out on a high. The mood of a disgruntled home crowd is harder to read.

Older Chelsea supporters who experienced relegation will may remember the sense of apathy that can overtake games such as this on and off the field. A first strike for the Londoners could make a big difference to the outcome – Cardiff have lost fewer points from winning positions than the Blues.