Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, April 2014

Composite leading indicators point to weakening growth in most major emerging economies but continued positive growth prospects in OECD countries

08/04/2014 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to weakening growth in major emerging economies, with the exception of China, where the CLI points to growth remaining around trend. CLIs point to growth below trend in Brazil and India, and to growth losing momentum in Russia.

For the OECD as a whole, and for the United States and Canada, CLIs point to growth remaining around trend. CLIs point to growth returning to trend in Japan[1] and tentatively losing momentum while remaining above trend in the United Kingdom.

In the Euro Area as a whole, and in Italy, CLIs continue to indicate a positive change in momentum. In Germany, the CLI points to growth above trend, and for France the CLI points to stable growth momentum.

1. The CLI for Japan may not fully capture the expected impact of the hike in its consumption tax rate in April 2014, the first increase since 1997, which is likely to result in an uneven growth profile during the first three quarters of 2014.

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