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Re: dream rh bat next year...

so it's the dream RH bat? I'll limit it to guys who played LF

Holliday
Quentin
Bay
Braun

More often than not, when someone is telling me a story all I can think about is that I can't wait for them to finish so that I can tell my own story that's not only better, but also more directly involves me.

Re: dream rh bat next year...

Re: dream rh bat next year...

Originally Posted by freestyle55

The same Matt Kemp who OPS's .725 against RHP and strikes out 25% of the time? Sure he plays good defense, but I just don't get all the love people have for him...he's decent, but he ain't exactly the, as Reggie Jackson would say "the straw that stirs the drink"...

Yep. I guess by "dream" I took it as "within reason". He'll get better against RH'ers and in Cincinnati his power would go up. I think acquiring a guy like Kemp - especially if he could be had for Phillips plus prospect - would help the team now a later. I dream of Votto/Kemp/Bruce for the next five years. Dreamy.

Re: dream rh bat next year...

Depending on if the organization wants to win next season (which I think it does) and it's long term plans for EE, I think Adrian Beltre would be the main guy to target if he is on the market.

I would like to try EE in left and roll out Beltre at third. IMO for next season Beltre would improve the overall defense and offense better than a guy like Holliday could and for much cheaper.

Promising things about Beltre besides his fielding is that 1. He's in a contract year, and 1a the last time he was in a contract year he went off at the tune of .334/.388/.629 with 48 bombs while playing in Dodger Stadium.

Which brings me to the second point which I don't believe is getting stressed enough. Beltre played his first 7 seasons in pitcher friendly LA, then spent his last 4 playing at safeco field, which along with Petco, are easily the 2 most unfriendly places to be a hitter.

Looking at the past 2 seasons, he hit for a moderate .276/.319/.482 in 07 and .266/.327/.457 in 08 looking at his home/road splits tell a bigger story IMO.

2007:
Home - .264/.319/.426 .745 OPS
Away - .288/.320/.538 .858 OPS

2008:
Home - .240/.303/.400 .703 OPS
Away - .292/.349/.512 .861 OPS

So he's shown his ability to hit for a good average with power away from Safeco. His walk rate isn't good, especially away from home where he seems to want to crush the ball, but for a team looking for a righty bat to drive some runs in I can live with it. I believe this is what Dusty preaches... walks are good but if there's something there to hit, don't be afraid to try and kill it.

His career lefty/righty splits are only .026 points of OPS higher vs lefties, but over the last several seasons has become much more pronounced with him destroying lefties for the first time in his career. Last season he OPSd .988 against lefties while only hitting .706 against righties. He had an OPS of greater than .780 against righties though in 06 and 07 so who knows what that means. Even if Votto didn't struggle vs lefties like Bruce did, I sitll would like to see a guy who can mash lefties hit between them.

The negatives are small. The biggest is probably what we have to give up to get him but that discussion will come later when we see how Seattle views 09. His contract pays him 12 mil, but for only one year on the books that's no biggie. The other problem is who plays third for us in 2010? Frazier? Soto? I'm not a fan of trading for Beltre then signing him for what Boras wants, so he's a one year fill. I suppose putting EE back for a season isn't the end of the world, but if he has success in left I'd rather leave him there. Either way those are worries for the next season.

We have a good team and if a few things fall into place we can compete in 09. Beltre gives us the best bet of imrpoving this team drastically for the least amount of assets. Something along the lines of .290/.330/.500 is reasonable I think, but he has the potential to do even more. Is a .300/.350/.540 out of the question after seeing his numbers away from safeco and knowing he's playing for a contract? That's getting into more the Guerrero, Soriano, Bruan, Dye type territory from a 3rd basemen... I like it.

Re: dream rh bat next year...

Beltre would be a very nice addition.

Good splits between the parks I didn't realize they where this pronounced.

The defensive upgrade would be huge and would allow us some options. for 2010 and beyond, if we get him for next year and can add a 2 or 3 year extension at around $15 million, this would give us time to get Soto, Alonzo, and Frazier up from the minors.

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