A couple of points of note from Asia. I see that unlike last year it opened early in Japan, and is doing tremendously well there, comparatively:

Quote:

In a big feat, Five Armies was No. 1 in Japan where there were three local openers. Bilbo and the gang earned an estimated $2.46M with 200K admissions from 644 screens. The results were 35% better than HAUJ and a staggering 95% higher than HDOS.

Also, it opens in China on January 23, fully a month earlier than last year. So tracking the total (and the "drive to a billion") will be a lot shorter this year.

"A week ahead of its U.S. debut, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies began its international victory lap this weekend.

Playing in 37 markets ;and only seven major ones the finale of Peter Jackson's second Middle Earth trilogy earned a massive $117.6 million. Its top territory was Germany, where its $19.5 million debut was easily the biggest of the year.

It also had huge openings in the U.K. ($15.15 million), France ($14.5 million), Russia ($13.4 million), Brazil ($6.9 million), Mexico ($6.4 million), and New Zealand ($1.8 million). It wasn't particularly impressive in Japan ($2.46 million), though it's rare for a live-action import to do much business there.

Across all of these markets, The Battle of the Five Armies opened above the previous two installments in the Hobbit trilogy. Each of those movies wound up with over $700 million overseas; based on this opening, that seems like a likely outcome for Five Armies as well.

Next weekend, the movie expands in to Italy, Spain and South Korea. It then reaches Australia on Dec"ember 26th, and finally opens in China in late January."

Box Office Mojo was a lot less impressed with the Japan opening than Deadline was. But if it doubles (or come close to doubling) last year's 13 plus million, that could be the difference between getting to a billion dollars or not.

$11.2m in Tuesday evening sneaks, according to The Hollywood Reporter. That's a very good start, better than SMAUG (8.8m), though not as good as AUJ (13m). Starting on Wednesday doesn't translate exactly to the Friday openings that the previous two movies had, but we can perhaps use ROTK as a benchmark (in terms of daily percentage increases/decreases).

$11.2m in Tuesday evening sneaks, according to The Hollywood Reporter. That's a very good start, better than SMAUG (8.8m), though not as good as AUJ (13m). Starting on Wednesday doesn't translate exactly to the Friday openings that the previous two movies had, but we can perhaps use ROTK as a benchmark (in terms of daily percentage increases/decreases).

Although that might turn out to be low, since it says "Friday estimates showed “The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” taking in $14 million to $15 million at 3,875 locations on its third day" but the official studio estimate is apparently $16.58M.

Peter Jackson’s “The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” has wound up its first week in U.S. theaters by crossing the $100 million milestone.

Tuesday grosses for the finale of the New Line-MGM “Hobbit” trilogy totaled $9.8 million, lifting “Five Armies” to $107.9 million.

That’s a faster pace than last year’s “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” which took in $96 million in its first week in the U.S. on its way to a domestic total of $258 million. Though it’s not as fast 2012’s “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” which grossed $113 million in its first week and finished with $303 million in the U.S.

“Five Armies” is the third movie to pass $100 million in the U.S. in a week this year following Lionsgate’s “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1,” which grossed $168.7 million in its opening week, and Disney-Marvel’s “Guardians of the Galaxy” with $134.4 million its first week.

“Five Armies” is expected to lead the four-day Christmas weekend in the U.S. with about $30 million to $35 million, followed by Disney’s opening of “Into the Woods.”

The film earned a very strong $13.1 million on Christmas day, the second highest total of any of the M-e films for behind ROTK's $14 million. It could do another $40 million, give or take, over the weekend, which would put it at about $167 million domestically, and I would guess something like maybe $550 million worldwide (I think).

Box Office Mojo is estimating a very strong $41,420,000 weekend. If that holds it would put BotFA at $168,522,000 through 12 days. DoS was at $140,639,480 through 12 days, and AUJ at $168,177,061. And while the DoS number does not include Christmas, AUJ does (Christmas was the 12th day after the release). I still doubt that it will get to $300 million, but maybe it isn't impossible!

He notes that "its $41m Fri-Sun second weekend quantifies as a drop of just 24% from Battle of the Five Armies‘s $54m Fri-Sun debut." In contrast, AUJ had a 56.4% drop from its first weekend to its second ($84,617,303 to $36,888,365) and DoS had a 57.2% drop ($73,645,197 to $31,505,278). The difference is partly explained by the fact that BotFA's first weekend was reduced by having opened on Wednesday, but it is still a much better "hold". Whether that is an indication that the film will have better legs than the first two remains to be seen.

UPDATE, MONDAY 2:10 AM PT: Across the Top 10 major studio releases internationally there’s reason for some holiday cheer. This weekend’s figures are up 19.4% over last frame with The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies leading the pack at $89.2M, plus strong perfs from Exodus: Gods And Kings in new key markets and the Night At The Museum finale. Still, that result is down from last year, largely due to the impact that Frozen was having on the season with a $50.5M take in the comparable frame. Five Armies in the estimates is also about 9.3% off from Smaug’s performance last year, but there are those nasty currency fluctuations to take into account.

2nd ETA: Meanwhile, Box Office Mojo thinks $300 million is out of reach, though I don't see how they reach that conclusion.

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies eased 24 percent to an estimated $41.4 million. In comparison, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King fell 30 percent to $50.6 million on the exact same weekend back in 2003. This is also the biggest second weekend yet for the Hobbit trilogy, though each of those weekends were before Christmas, not after.

The final installment in the Hobbit trilogy remains on track to at least match The Desolation of Smaug's $258 million, though $300 million now seems to be out of reach.

Most predictions are for around a $25 million weekend in North America (no. 1 again), so it should be approaching $225 million after the weekend in North American, and well over $700 million worldwide.

I'm guessing the final domestic total will be around $270 million. Depending on how good China is, the foreign total should be around the same as DoS ($700 million), maybe a little less. It looks like the strong dollar might doom it chances of reaching one billion dollars.

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