Inside the Phillies with MLB.com beat writer Todd Zolecki

Get Your Monday Morning Stats Fix

It’s Monday morning. You probably don’t want to be at work, so let’s ease into the week with some Phillies numbers that might get you thinking a little bit.

Hitting

The Phillies lead the National League in scoring with 665 runs, despite playing at least two fewer games than most teams in the league. They are averaging 5.20 runs per game. No other team has averaged more than 4.99 runs per game.

The Phillies lead the league with 185 home runs. The Rockies are second with 153.

Despite those home runs, the Phillies rank just eighth with 925 strikeouts. That’s a strikeout every 5.46 plate appearances, which ranks seventh.

Their 1.08 groundball-to-flyball ratio is last in the league.

Their five bunt hits are last in the league.

They take 57.4 percent of their pitches, which is the second highest percentage in the league. They put 18.4 percent of their pitches in play, which is tied for ninth. The swing at only 20.9 percent of their first pitches, which is the lowest percentage in the league.

They are last in singles with 684, but first in extra-base hits with 463.

That explains why they are tied for 10th in hitting (.259) and eighth in on-base percentage (.336), but are first with a .452 slugging percentage.

They are fifth in the league with 3.86 pitches per plate appearance.

They are fifth with 89 stolen bases, but first with an 8.17 stolen base percentage. They have stolen third base 17 times, which is tied with the Diamondbacks for the league lead.

Pitching

Their 4.15 ERA is sixth in the league.

Opponents have hit .263 against them, which is eighth.

They are sixth with 34 saves. They are tied for fifth with 18 blown saves. Their 65.4 save completion percentage is seventh.

Their 150.7 pitches per game are fourth.

Their 12.61 baserunners per nine innings are seventh fewest. Their 7.07 strikeouts per nine innings are ninth. Their 3.13 walks per nine innings are second fewest. Their 1.23 homers per nine innings are second worst.

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35 Comments

After the start that they had, their pitching stats are actually kind or respectable. The bullpen isn’t what it was last year at this time but, if they can get Myers and Romero back, it can be much better.

They won a WFChampionship last year with not-so-great hitting with RISP, but that is really a concern. I can’t believe how many times they have left a runner on third with no outs this year. And they have to be the worst pinch-hitting team in MLB. anybody know where to get that stat?

Mix all of these offensive statistics together and what do you get? The #1 team in the NL East for the last two years and currently and the defending world champions. It is hard to argue with success. But you cannot sacrifice the good waiting for the perfect. Life would be easier for us fans if Utley, Werth and Ibanez, to name the more obvious cases, were more aggressive earlier in the count.

I would just like to point out that Lidge had two quality saves in this series. In both he gave up no hits or walks, and faced the minimum 3 batters. So I take that as a good sign. Plus Joe pitched well again. If Hamels can settle down, and we go into the playoffs of Lee, Blanton, Hamels, and Happ (not necessarily in that order) I think we can do some great things.

Utley and Werth are some of the best hitters in the league because they are some of the most patient at the plate, not in spite of. Mess with their style by having them swing earlier in the count and their numbers will go down, count on it. Patience is the most important skill in hitting.
And phan52, all I have is batting average, but as far as that goes, Phillies pinch hitters are 29/186 (.156), third worst in the league. The White Sox are last at 6/63 (.095) and the Angels are first at 11/35 (.314). League average is 26/144 (.228).

phan52: Forgot where I read it (Inquirer?) but Romero doesn’t look promising. Some sort of setback in his return. There’s still a month to go, but he probably isn’t going to help much.
It would be interesting to analyze those numbers compared to other teams. Maybe lousy teams also take a lot of pitches and hit home runs or vice versa. We’ve always heard “pitching and defense” and the Phils definitely use the gloves. Jimmy had a career game last night.
But it seems that their pitching doesn’t have to be as good with the number of runs they score.
Surely bad teams have bad pitching (Baltimore) but it would be good to see which numbers matter and which ones don’t.

muleman, pitching and defense always matter more, which is why I am not as worried as I could be about the abysmal hitting with RISP.
I know that Romero had a setback. While it doesn’t appear to be structural, I wouldn’t want him pitching through the pain. If he is committed to getting back he should take a shot, but he refuses to do so. It helped Hamels earlier this year.

I wish I had a way to count this but I can’t figure it out; I could swear that, in this 2 month or so stretch where they’ve been abysmal with RISP, the majority of the RISP at bats are falling to the worst hitters on the team, i.e. Feliz, Ruiz, and the pitcher’s spot. But this is just my anecdotal impression from watching it. Unfortunately I haven’t found a way to calculate that for just the last 2 months yet. Even if it’s not the majority of, it certainly seems like a disproportionate amount.

What is interesting is how this debunks many of our ideas about this team.
1) Despite Howard and Werth, we don’t stike out too many times (7th in league is reasonable)
2) They are patient at the plate, not swinging at 1st pitches and waiting for their pitch
3) thir closer’s haven’t been too bad (as a team), but not very good. We don’t have the worst pen in the league

It also proves that we care a good fielding and ruinning team who can’t play small ball.

In short, we have the same strengths and weeknesses we had last year with the difference being that our pen isn’t light’s out this year.

norma: Paying for the post-season tickets is both painful and joyful. I’ll swallow hard and do it this week.
I’ll probably have playoff tickets for the Blue Rocks also, but they’re much easier to afford!
phylan: I’ve had the same impression, but can’t back it up with actual numbers. Seems like Bako, Feliz, Ruiz et al are up an inordinate number of times with RISP. Of course, Howard is in scoring position at the plate, but that doesn’t count I guess!
f.i.j.: Yes, the numbers don’t always match the fans impressions.

phylan…..You are entitled to your opinion and I am entitled to mine. While both Utley and Werth are productive hitters there is no way of knowing whether they can be more productive unless they try something else. Werth is the easy case. He has been more productive because he has been given the opportunity to play every day as opposed to a spot starter and fill-in as has occurred in the past. Utley has been on the same level now for four or five years. If this is as good as it gets with Utley, so be it and recognizing his accomplishments are nothing to sneeze at. However, I remember what he did before the All-star break in 2007. While that was cut short by injury, the question remains why he cannot do it for an entire year. My answer to that is that he takes too many pitches for whatever reason. He ought to try something different.

Phylan: I agree in regards to Feliz & Ruiz. I think they’ve been much more productive this season than last particularly Feliz. Werth always impresses me by how many pitches he takes by fouling off several times. Take one of his most recent at bats where he fouled off 7 pitches before belting a HR (I think it was against Pittsburgh).

Thought this was a fun tidbit–maybe Lidge’s hopeful resurgence has to do with Madson being his barber (maybe Lidge should return the favor since Madson has struggled of late).

I’m not sure what you mean. Before the All-Star break in 2007, Utley hit .325/.401/.571. Right now in 2009 he’s hitting .304/.423/.554. The latter line is just as good in my book, given that beautiful beautiful OBP. I could see how if all you cared about was batting average that the first line would be preferable, but that’s only telling a little bit of the story here. And in any case, in 2007 he saw 3.94 pitches per plate appearance. Now he sees 4.15. That’s really not that dramatic of a difference.
As far as Werth, it’s not increased production because he’s seen more playing time, because his rate stats, which are independent of playing time, are what have improved.
I know you’re entitled to your opinion, but you’re seriously advocating that Werth and Utley employ worse hitting philosophies. Plate patience forces the pitcher to throw more pitches, increases the chances you will get the pitch that is best for you to drive, allows you to look at all the stuff in a pitcher’s repertoire, and get comfortable at the plate before offering at something, instead of swinging at the first pitch and making a weak popout to the infield (hello Pedro Feliz, near worst in the league in pitches per plate appearance).
In any case, Utley hits .296/.371/.520 after an 0-1 count, and .291/.444/.549 after a 1-0 count, so even if that first pitch he takes is a strike (which is far, far from a guarantee), it doesn’t really affect his hitting noticeably.

Guys at or near the top of the lineup should always take pitches, especially against a starter. It helps them to see what the pitcher has that day and it also helps the players on-deck and in the dugout. Maybe they should be more aggressive against relief pitchers since they are more conditioned to immediately throw strikes but, for all I know, maybe they are. I wouldn’t want them to change their approach.
I noticed again last night that our back-of-the-bullpen pitchers still have issues with pitch selection. Who is calling those pitches, the catcher or the dugout? Madson threw almost all changeups to Chipper Jones, who couldn’t turn on one of his fastballs on a bet.

phylan: I’m supposed to be working, but figured I’d spend about 5 minutes on this:
As far as 2009 plate appearances with RISP, Pedro Feliz has 131 PA, Ruiz/Bako 103, Werth 151 and Ibanez 134. Some injury time for Raul but the point is (I suppose) that Feliz has had almost as many chances with RISP as Werth and Ibanez. I guess a lot of that has to do with the productivity of Raul early in the season and Werth’s relative consistency, but it probably says something for having strength throughout your lineup.
Utley, for instance, has 154 PA with RISP – only 29 less than Feliz.
Maybe the point (if there is one) is that hitting with RISP isn’t just the duty of the 4-5-6 hitters.
Back to work.

Also worth remembering, for better or worse, our team is designed to score via the long ball. We have teh most runs scored my men NOT in scoring posistion (hitters or men on 1B) in the majors. We have 4 guys who will hit over 30 HRs this year, and 4 who will get 100 RBIs, scoring is not our problem. Yes, it would be nice if they could play small ball as well as long ball, but I’d rather they score this way, then not score. We need to orgainize our pen for the post season, assign roles to people and get it together. Who will be in the pen, who will be closer, set up, long, junk, etc? Too many open options at the momment

On the contrary, I think the bullpen roles are well defined, if not too much so.
Sunday night, Park was warming up in the 7th and the game went into the 8th inning. He sat down, Madson warmed up and came in. Warming up a guy to sit him down tells me that the roles are set in stone. Madson is the set-up guy. Park is long. …
… and Lidge is the closer. Get used to it.

I don’t think Romero and Condrey are necessarily coming back. Myers can be a good in the 6th 7th or 8th, and Lidge, if he keeps throwing the slider like he has been, can keep closing. I’m fine with how they use Park right now: flexibly.

Todd, is there anyway you could find out what the status is of every player on the DL? Some Phans were posting about Condrey being done for the season, which shocked me when I read it, but no one posted to the contrary. I thought J.C. was only going to be out for 2 weeks, now he’s closer to 6 weeks. We hear about Brett, but virtually no one else.

This is the last thing that appeared about Romero on rotoworld: J.C. Romero (forearm) is scheduled to be examined by team physicians Saturday for what the Phillies are calling a “routine checkup.”
Romero has been sidelined since August 4 with left forearm inflammation and could return to the Phillies in mid-September if everything checks out. He’s yet to begin any sort of rehab assignment, however.

I just checked the MLB.com’s injury up-date and it still has Myers listed as possible for late August, which was true a month ago, but obviously was impossible from the time he got that black-eye. What the #@%* is the point of having a link to something called “injury up-date” and not ACTUALLY up-date the information daily?

f.i.j.: “When” Condrey and Romero come back? If. Myers is the biggest question mark. I think he’ll fit in someplace.
Lidge? Lidge is the closer. Park? Park is the long man. What’s the question? Why mess with anything at this stage?

muleman ….I totally agree about the post-season ticket purchase being painful/joyful. I kept putting it off, too. Just kept staring at that bill! Wonder how *random* the seat selection really is? Or will the folks who paid already, get the choicest seats? Guess I’ll find out in a couple of weeks. Which games are you going to?

norma: Oh, and I don’t know what the policy is on seat choice. I’d guess it’s pre-determined based on the plan. We have a 17-game plan and last year we had WS seats that were in the next section over from our regular seats in 326, so that was pretty cool. The other games were in upper left field and down the first base line upstairs. Nothing better than what we had in the regular season, but there really aren’t any bad spots there.
I also “won” the lottery and we were able to purchase gamd 6 LCS tickets, which we didn’t need.
It’s like Christmas morning when I open the envelope and check the seating chart.

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