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Don’t get caught up in the MVP hype surrounding Matt Ryan or even Texans pass-blocker J.J. Watt. In my mind, it’s a two-man race between someone coming off four neck surgeries who was run out of town by the Colts, and the kid they picked to replace him.

Midseason MVP:Peyton Manning has been ridiculously productive this season and has thrown three touchdown passes in five straight games. I didn’t think he would be anywhere close to as good as he used to be (and neither did Indianapolis), and he has been even better.

Manning is on pace to set career highs in yards (4,808) and completion percentage (69.5), and the touchdowns (40) and passer rating (108.6) would be second-best numbers in his Hall of Fame career.

The Broncos are 5-3, and though talk of them running the table is laughable, they are definitely a Super Bowl contender. Thanks to Manning.

Midseason Rookie of the Year: The Colts drafted Andrew Luck with the No. 1 overall pick, and the somewhat goofy kid from Stanford has made Indianapolis fans forget Manning. I thought he was the best quarterback prospect in the NFL draft since John Elway, and I was wrong – he’s better.

He threw for 433 yards, breaking the NFL rookie record for a single game, Sunday, and then Thursday night he ran for two touchdowns against the Jaguars as the Colts won 27-10 to improve to 6-3. In that win over the Dolphins on Sunday, Luck connected on third-down passes of 10, 11, 12, 14, 16 and 20 yards against the best third-down defense in the NFL.

Not only is Luck, with his accuracy, toughness and mastery of the no-huddle offense, going to be the first No. 1 overall quarterback to have a winning record his rookie season, but he is going to the playoffs. With a team most experts thought was terrible (and its defense is still not very good).

Midseason Defensive MVP: In just a couple of years, Watt – a 6-foot-6 defensive end – has come out of nowhere and this season has 10 1/2 sacks, 28 tackles for loss, 21 quarterback hits and 10 pass deflections.

Bears right tackle Gabe Carimi gets to face Watt, his old college teammate, Sunday.

You have “to hit him low, so he doesn’t want to jump up high,” Carimi said. “That’s the only way. That’s what offensive linemen are taught across the league.”

Coach of the Year: Atlanta’s Mike Smith hired two new coordinators to help figure out why his talented bunch looked so feeble last year in the playoffs. Ryan is improved and might win the actual MVP award, but the Falcons’ 8-0 start won’t mean anything until they scare and dismiss some teams in the postseason.

Best moment: Colts head coach Chuck Pagano left the hospital and his treatments for leukemia Sunday to be with his team. And after the Colts won, he gave an emotional speech about fighting and how someday he will dance at his two daughters’ weddings and lift a Lombardi Trophy with these players.

Worst moment: Commissioner Roger Goodell‘s stubborn handling of the officials’ lockout led to the replacement officials blowing a call and a game on national television. Goodell tarnished the integrity of the game, in Scott Fujita‘s words, and still owes the Packers and fans an apology.

Worst Super Bowl pick: That would be me, with the Eagles over the Patriots. I am afraid Jim Harbaugh‘s head is going to explode one day with all the brash self-confidence, but give me the 49ers over the Patriots now.