The EV is negative $2.57. This means that if you were to make the same bet on the Strikers in an identical match over and over again, you’d expect to lose an average of $2.57 for each bet of $100.

This of course reflects a head-to-head market where a bookmaker is deducting their own percentage, or profit.

So what?

The EV gives you a reliable view of whether your bet represents value or not.

If you have a negative EV, it doesn’t necessarily doesn’t mean you’re going to lose money.

Betting odds are subjective, and are just a reflection of the bookmaker’s view on probability. If you can outsmart the bookmaker and figure out where they’ve got it wrong, you can make money is the long run.

If you calculate your own probability that differs from probability represented in the odds, you can see where to find a positive EV.

In our example above, the bookies’ odds say that the Strikers have a 54.94% chance of winning.

If your own calculations actually give them a 65% chance of winning, the EV increases to positive $5.68.

With over 10 years’ experience, Champion Bets has been Australia’s favourite source of betting and ratings packages for over 26,000 members across 19 different packages. Specialising in a variety of sports including Horse Racing, NRL, AFL, Soccer, Cricket and more; there’s a package for anyone.

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With over 10 years’ experience, Champion Bets has been Australia’s favourite source of betting and ratings packages for over 26,000 members across 19 different packages. Specialising in a variety of sports including Horse Racing, NRL, AFL, Soccer, Cricket and more; there’s a package for anyone.