David Frum: It’s Trudeau who should be attacking, not Harper

Justin Trudeau should be the one on the attack, not Harper

The Liberals and Conservatives should switch ad agencies.

In the past few days, both the Liberals and Conservatives have released ads starring Justin Trudeau. The Conservative ad jeeringly mocked the new Liberal leader as “out of his depth.” The Liberal ad showed a soft-focus Trudeau in a school classroom meltingly promising a “better country.”

The strange thing about the Trudeau ad is that it presupposes that something is seriously wrong with Canada, but never quite gets around to saying what that something is. “We can keep mistrusting and finding flaws with each other, or we can pull together and get to work.” (To work on what? He doesn’t say.) And then, “together we will build a better country.” But better how?

Justin Trudeau is reprising themes from Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign. However, the Obama campaign took place in the throes of the worst economic crisis since the 1930s, at the end of the weakest economic expansion since World War II, and while the United States was mired in two frustrating wars.

When candidate Obama pledged, “we can do better,” it was easy to believe him. It was hard to imagine how things could get worse.

By contrast, Canada in 2013 is by almost every measurable indicator the best-functioning and most successful of the advanced economies. The economy is growing, wages are rising, the unemployment rate is half a point lower than in Canada’s most important trading partner. In this environment, a challenger must whack the incumbents hard, then whack ‘em again.

But there’s no whacking by Justin Trudeau. His ad presupposes that Canadians think as he does: that he need only declare himself available to be hoisted into office.

The Conservative ad takes the opposite tack. Instead of a solid defense, it offers a sharp offense. Rather than humanize Stephen Harper’s image, the ad aims to muss up Justin Trudeau’s.

You can understand why the Conservatives feel stampeded. A new Decima poll shows Canadians hold a 57-40 “unfavorable” impression of Stephen Harper as opposed to a 57-30 “favorable” impression of Justin Trudeau.

Yet look closer.

On the question, “Who is best to handle the economy,” Harper leads Trudeau 37-23, with 18% for NDP leader Thomas Mulcair.

Who has best judgment? 31% Harper, as compared to 24% Trudeau and 21% Mulcair.

Who has the best experience to be prime minister? 45% for Harper, 19% each for Trudeau and Mulcair.

To put it bluntly: Justin Trudeau has Canadians’ sympathies, but not their respect

Harper’s weaknesses are the “shares your values” and the “cares about people like you” questions. That’s where communications can help. But attack ads, even if temporarily effective, do not help. They hurt Trudeau where Canadians already had reached a negative judgment (his competence, his experience) but also reinforce an unhelpful narrative about the values of the authors of the ads.

To put it bluntly: Justin Trudeau has Canadians’ sympathies, but not their respect. In time, Canadians may come to believe that Trudeau is not the person they imagine him to be. As they know him better, they may question the reality behind his carefully constructed image of caring teacher and devoted family man. But those questions will do the Conservatives little good if they are raised in ways that simultaneously reinforce negative stereotypes about Stephen Harper and his party.

Stephen Harper has gained Canadians’ respect, and very deservedly so. Through the worst economic crisis since the 1930s, he made the right decisions when most world leaders were making the wrong ones.

The challenge on the way to the next Conservative majority is for Harper to gain not only Canadians’ respect, but their sympathy as well. To convince them that he cares about people like them, show that he does; to confirm that he shares their values, have him express his own.

To rebuild the personal connection that is easily lost under the stress of governing. Remember that there is more to a country than its economy. Remember that there is more to a leader than his record. Remember that the people are most likely to trust the politician who most evidently trusts them.