Newly spotted miles-wide comet bearing down on Mars

Scientists who just noticed the comet are trying to figure out if it will hit.

A comet spotted earlier this year may pass close enough for Mars to feel the rock’s hot breath down its neck, according to new reports that surfaced Monday and Tuesday. The comet, named C/2013 A1, may pass within a few tens of thousands of miles of Mars’ center, with a remote chance that the miles-wide comet will collide with the planet.

C/2013 A1 “Siding Spring,” a comet between 5 and 30 miles wide, was spotted January 3 by astronomer Robert H. McNaught. Researchers were able to look back in the image history of the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona and spot signs of the comet as early as December 8, 2012. NASA states that other archives have traced sightings back to October 4, 2012.

According to scientists at NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office, Siding Spring originates from the Oort Cloud of our Solar System and has been journeying to this point for more than a million years. In less than two years, around October 19, 2014, the comet will pass very close to Mars.

Based on the parabolic orbit observed so far, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab estimates Siding Spring will pass within 186,000 miles of Mars. The NEO’s estimate, based on observations from data up to March 1, places the distances at 31,000 miles from the surface. NBC notes that observations made by Russian astronomer Leonid Elenin of the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics indicate that the comet will pass 25,700 miles from the center of Mars.

“The possibility of an impact cannot be excluded,” stated NASA in a press release. According to NBC, the comet would be moving 35 miles per second at the time of impact and would create a crater up to 10 times the diameter of the comet’s body and around 1.25 miles deep. If the comet manages to miss Mars, it will be a prime target for observation in October of next year, as it’s set to pass Mars around October 19, followed by the Sun on October 25.

Just to clear up what was written in the last paragraph: There was a new orbit estimate published on Saturday, which now includes some precovery observations taken in October, extending the arc of observations by 2 months. These observations show that the comet will most likely pass about 52,000 kilometers from the surface of Mars (or 32,300 miles). However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the orbit, and it could encounter the planet at a distance as far as 317,000 kilometers (197,000 miles) away, while an impact hasn't been ruled out. Some of the distances in the last paragraph use an orbit estimate that do not include the October 2012 data.

Just to clear up what was written in the last paragraph: There was a new orbit estimate published on Saturday, which now includes some precovery observations taken in October, extending the arc of observations by 2 months. These observations show that the comet will most likely pass about 52,000 kilometers from the surface of Mars (or 32,300 miles). However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the orbit, and it could encounter the planet at a distance as far as 317,000 kilometers (197,000 miles) away, while an impact hasn't been ruled out. Some of the distances in the last paragraph use an orbit estimate that do not include the October 2012 data.

Maybe we should consider pushing it into Mars? It would make for a once-in-a-millenium (guessing) chance to study such a massive impact, and put some more solid parameters on what we could expect from a similar impact with Earth. Plus it would eliminate the possibility (if there is one) of the comet swinging around and hitting Earth sometime in the future.

Then again, this comet might be too big; it could potentially destroy some of the interesting geologic features of Mars and alter the climate for decades.

If this comet hit and we could document the entire process... Since our planet isn't the one at risk here, this is very cool. Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 type cool. What we could learn from such an impact, what we could observe. All while we have several probes on planet or in orbit. With luck Opportunity will still be operating and can work with Curiosity to observe this possible event.

Too abd we couldn't synchronize billionarire Denis Tito's interplanetary honeymoon couple so they be there when/if it struck Mars. I can see a plotline even now; fragments from the comet damage part of their two-person craft, forcing them to have to make an emergency set-down on Mars after the comet hits and seeds the planet with water and atmosphere. A second "hidden/dark" comet plunges past Mars and wipes out Earth, leaving the couple stranded on Mars as humanity's next Adam and Eve.

10 times diameter, up to 30 miles wide...we're talking a potential 300 mile wide crater 1.25 miles deep. Holy. Doomsday.

Which would mean something like 70,000 cubic miles of Mars suddenly leaving the surface and going somewhere. A non-trivial amount of that ejecta might find it's way to our orbit - potentially a non-fun scenario.

So, I read the bit about it traveling 35 miles per second and, while realizing that's quite fast, wasn't shocked by the number.

Then I read the part about going from Mars to the Sun in 6 days and just how fast really sank in. That's 18,000,000 miles in 6 days.

Somehting is off there since Mars at its closest to the sun is about 128,000,000 miles I believe.

Yeah I believe he just multiplied 35x3600x24x6 and came to 18144000 miles.You have to factor in acceleration and its closest approach to the Sun.Its a basic Newtonian formula I am too bothered to calculate.