2011 NCAA Football Features

Although they racked up 11 wins on the season, Virginia Tech's occasional ineptitude epitomized the ACC's football futility in 2010, with the Hokies following a hard-fought loss to Boise State by inexcusably falling to James Madison in Week 2. To their credit, VT rolled through the rest of their schedule and defeated Florida State in the conference championship game; unfortunately, the Hokies were smoked by Stanford in the Orange Bowl.

This season the conference is pinning its hopes on Florida State, which comes into the year with a no. 5 ranking despite losing quarterback Christian Ponder to the NFL. Greg Reid and Xavier Rhodes lead a dynamic secondary, with enforcement up front thanks to DE Brandon Jenkins and LB Nigel Bradham. If E.J. Manuel can smoothly transition into the quarterback position, FSU will be a force to be reckoned with. The Seminoles get an early test with top-ranked Oklahoma coming into Tallahassee on September 17.

Virginia Tech hopes to rebound off of their BCS embarrassment with Logan Thomas as their new quarterback. Thomas' combination of stature (6'6, 250 lbs.) and speed instantly invigorates an offense that averaged 33.9 points per game last season. Although there is much turnover on defense, coordinator Bud Foster has cultivated a culture of dominance that has passed down from team to team.

Other interesting subplots to keep on eye on in the ACC will be Al Golden's first year in Miami, Dabo Swinney trying to hold onto his job in Clemson and how the Butch Davis fiasco affects the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill.

Using our college football simulation engine, WhatIfSports.com simulated thousands of college football games to create this ACC Preview. Team ratings, player ratings and depth charts are accurate as of August 19th. What you see in the WIS-ACC Predictions table is the most likely outcome based on the computer simulations. The team-by-team schedules use Absolute Records, which you can learn more about below. Those same game-by-game simulations also generate average points per game for both teams.

WIS-ACC Predictions

Atlantic

W

L

Overall Record

Florida State

6

2

9-3

Clemson

5

3

8-4

Maryland

5

3

7-5

North Carolina State

4

4

7-5

Boston College

3

5

5-7

Wake Forest

1

7

3-9

Coastal

W

L

Overall Record

Virginia Tech

6

2

10-2

Miami (FL)

5

3

8-4

North Carolina

5

3

8-4

Georgia Tech

3

5

6-6

Duke

2

6

5-7

Virginia

2

6

4-8

For details on how we generate the results and the definition of the Absolute Record, click here.

For this analysis, thousands of college football games are simulated, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not, our expected record (in the table above) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Florida State

High expectations? Bring it on, say the Seminoles.

The No. 5-ranked 'Noles have the attention they've coveted for several years. That spot in the preseason coaches' poll brings heightened expectations, but also puts FSU in position to accomplish its national title goals.

All for a team that has not been to a BCS bowl since 2005 and has not won the ACC title in the same span. But FSU was an overwhelming pick at the ACC Kickoff on July 25 to win the ACC Atlantic Division and go on to win the league title over Virginia Tech.

"It's great to be there," FSU coach Jimbo Fisher said. "It does signify that people are taking notice of your program. You can say it doesn't mean anything, but it does at the same time. And that's where you want to be. If you're going to be good you have to embrace it."

Perception around the Seminoles is fueled by two solid recruiting classes that Fisher has assembled and the 10-4 record his team attained last year.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Florida State Seminoles

Week

Opponent

Win%

Avg Score

1

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

94

40-17

2

Charleston Southern Buccaneers

95

63-6

3

Oklahoma Sooners

44

33-35

4

@Clemson Tigers

68

31-24

6

@Wake Forest Demon Deacons

95

41-15

7

@Duke Blue Devils

92

39-20

8

Maryland Terrapins

67

31-23

9

North Carolina State Wolfpack

77

36-22

10

@Boston College Eagles

82

31-17

11

Miami (FL) Hurricanes

63

30-25

12

Virginia Cavaliers

92

34-16

13

@Florida Gators

73

29-21

Clemson

Although the defense lost several standouts to the NFL, including Da'Quan Bowers, Jarvis Jenkins and Marcus Gilchrist, defensive coordinator Kevin Steele's group should be solid if not spectacular once again as experienced backups move into starting roles.

The primary concerns continue to be on offense, where the Tigers will try to break in a new quarterback in sophomore Tajh Boyd to run new offensive coordinator Chad Morris's up-tempo offense. He's unproven and inexperienced, but head coach Dabo Swinney is counting on him to make an impact with both his arm and legs.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Clemson Tigers

Week

Opponent

Win%

Avg Score

1

Troy Trojans

85

33-20

2

Wofford Terriers

95

53-7

3

Auburn Tigers

65

27-23

4

Florida State Seminoles

32

24-31

5

@Virginia Tech Hokies

43

23-26

6

Boston College Eagles

69

24-18

7

@Maryland Terrapins

57

26-22

8

North Carolina Tar Heels

66

26-20

9

@Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

65

27-21

11

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

82

30-17

12

@North Carolina State Wolfpack

64

28-24

13

@South Carolina Gamecocks

32

23-30

Maryland

Five offensive starters return, headlined by ACC Freshman of the Year Danny O'Brien at quarterback. O'Brien threw 22 touchdown passes and was fourth among all conference quarterbacks with a 134.5 rating. Davin Meggett led the team in rushing and D.J. Adams rushed for 11 scores but O'Brien will have new starters at the ends, and will particularly miss Torrey Smith, the Baltimore Ravens' second round draft choice. Senior Ronnie Tyler and junior Kevin Dorsey looked good in the spring.

On defense, seven starters return, including All-ACC defensive tackle Joe Vellano, All-ACC safety Kenny Tate, who has moved to linebacker, and up-and-coming linebacker Demetrius Hartsfield. Seven of the top 10 tacklers are back but they're lining up in a 4-3 now, and they're not exceptionally big or fast.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Maryland Terrapins

Week

Opponent

Win%

Avg Score

1

Miami (FL) Hurricanes

39

23-26

3

West Virginia Mountaineers

40

23-27

4

Temple Owls

68

29-22

5

Towson Tigers

95

53-7

6

@Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

69

27-21

7

Clemson Tigers

43

22-26

8

@Florida State Seminoles

33

23-31

9

Boston College Eagles

65

24-19

10

Virginia Cavaliers

77

29-18

11

@Notre Dame Fighting Irish

49

26-26

12

@Wake Forest Demon Deacons

84

31-17

13

@North Carolina State Wolfpack

58

28-24

North Carolina State

The Wolfpack finally has some momentum under coach Tom O'Brien after a 9-4 season that included a bowl victory against West Virginia. It's the first time in four years that N.C. State posted a winning record with O'Brien in charge.

Sustaining the momentum will be critical to the program's evolution and much of that will fall on the shoulders of redshirt junior QB Mike Glennon.

Glennon fits the mold of the style of quarterback that O'Brien prefers. He's more of a drop-back, pro-style quarterback. He also comes with a family background as older brother Sean Glennon is a former Virginia Tech quarterback.

While the quarterback issue will attract a lot of headlines, there are other areas for the Wolfpack to pay attention to. Yet with six starters returning on offense and eight starters back on defense there's no reason that N.C. State shouldn't expect to stay on track.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 North Carolina State Wolfpack

Week

Opponent

Win%

Avg Score

1

Liberty Flames

95

51-9

2

@Wake Forest Demon Deacons

82

34-20

3

South Alabama Jaguars

95

53-8

4

@Cincinnati Bearcats

50

29-30

5

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

67

28-24

6

Central Michigan Chippewas

74

31-22

8

@Virginia Cavaliers

71

30-21

9

@Florida State Seminoles

23

22-36

10

North Carolina Tar Heels

49

26-27

11

@Boston College Eagles

56

26-24

12

Clemson Tigers

35

24-28

13

Maryland Terrapins

42

24-28

Boston College

Last year's BC entry, an offensively challenged group, sat at 2-5 with the season heading right down the drain. The players vowed to keep plugging away and did just that. The Eagles won five in a row and extended the bowl streak, before losing the Fight Hunger Bowl to Nevada to finish at 7-6.

They did it with a freshman quarterback, with Chase Rettig taking over in the fourth game, and with the offensive line, usually a BC strength, struggling. But they also did it with defense, which is where LB Luke Kuechly, called "The Human Eraser" by coach Frank Spaziani, led the country in tackles.

Kuechly, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, is a junior now and should be an All-American. The defense was hit with losses up front, and the inspirational Mark Herzlich is gone from the strong linebacking corps, but the defense should again be strong. Tackle Kaleb Ramsey anchors a line that suffered some losses and Donnie Fletcher is the veteran leader in the secondary.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Boston College Eagles

Week

Opponent

Win%

Avg Score

1

Northwestern Wildcats

48

24-23

2

@UCF Knights

48

23-24

3

Duke Blue Devils

62

27-21

4

Massachusetts Minutemen

95

47-7

5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

74

26-17

6

@Clemson Tigers

31

18-24

8

@Virginia Tech Hokies

23

18-27

9

@Maryland Terrapins

35

19-24

10

Florida State Seminoles

17

17-31

11

North Carolina State Wolfpack

43

24-26

12

@Notre Dame Fighting Irish

37

21-27

13

@Miami (FL) Hurricanes

28

19-27

Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons were so miserable a year ago that putting the pieces back together has become almost a rallying cry.

"I've got a feeling we're not a cocky group right now," coach Jim Grobe said with the upcoming season barely more than a month away. "Our kids are embarrassed what happened to us last year."

A good share of the attention will fall on a defense that was scorched time and time again a year ago. The Demon Deacons have started to bulk up along the front and they've turned to a 3-4 defense. That was something that they implemented during the season last year, so with more time to become familiar with that alignment there could be more rewards this season.

The offense will be directed by sophomore quarterback Tanner Price, who was banged up repeatedly as a true freshman who desperately needed more help.

With four seniors on the offensive line, it's time for the Demon Deacons to put that experience to good use.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Week

Opponent

Win%

Avg Score

1

@Syracuse Orange

22

18-29

2

North Carolina State Wolfpack

18

20-34

3

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

95

41-9

5

@Boston College Eagles

26

17-26

6

Florida State Seminoles

5

15-41

7

Virginia Tech Hokies

5

15-35

8

@Duke Blue Devils

45

25-28

9

@North Carolina Tar Heels

17

18-31

10

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

12

19-35

11

@Clemson Tigers

18

17-30

12

Maryland Terrapins

16

17-31

13

Vanderbilt Commodores

52

22-23

Virginia Tech

The year's hopes and dreams ride on the big shoulders of quarterback Logan Thomas and brothers Derrick and Antoine Hopkins at defensive tackle.

While comparisons to Cam Newton are obvious because of Thomas' build and surprising ability to make big plays with his feet, one must remember that Thomas is still somewhat raw, having been recruited as a tight end before being moved to QB when Virginia Tech whiffed on a couple of prospects.

An easy September schedule - the toughest opponent could arguably be long-time FCS power Appalachian State in the opener - should not only boost Thomas' confidence, it should also serve as a shakedown cruise of sorts for the Hopkins brothers.

If both can stand their ground in the interior better than last year, when they would make two good plays and then make a bad one to cost the team big plays, the defense could become the kind of nasty stop unit one expects from this program. And that might just allow a perennial contender to find its way to New Orleans in January for a BCS title game.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Virginia Tech Hokies

Week

Opponent

Win%

Avg Score

1

Appalachian State Mountaineers

95

59-6

2

@East Carolina Pirates

89

36-19

3

Arkansas State Red Wolves

95

38-17

4

@Marshall Thundering Herd

95

36-13

5

Clemson Tigers

57

26-23

6

Miami (FL) Hurricanes

50

25-25

7

@Wake Forest Demon Deacons

95

35-15

8

Boston College Eagles

77

27-18

9

@Duke Blue Devils

83

31-19

11

@Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

75

30-21

12

North Carolina Tar Heels

61

29-22

13

@Virginia Cavaliers

87

31-16

Miami (FL)

Miami has gone through the summer without knowing for sure who the quarterback will be when the Hurricanes kick off the season at Maryland Sept. 5. First-year coach Al Golden, though, is hoping the competition between senior Jacory Harris and sophomore Stephen Morris will be settled early in fall camp.

With 24 career starts, Harris, a senior, has the experience edge over Morris, who was headed for a redshirt year in 2010 until Harris was knocked to the sidelines late in the year. Morris had some success, nearly guiding the Hurricanes to a comeback win over Virginia in the game Harris was injured, but he also struggled with interceptions, just like Harris had.

"I'm going to make a decision who the starter is going to be, but I certainly would not hesitate to put in somebody else if things weren't going right," Golden said. "It's always about what's best for the team."

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Week

Opponent

Win%

Avg Score

1

@Maryland Terrapins

61

26-23

3

Ohio State Buckeyes

40

23-25

4

Kansas State Wildcats

76

30-20

5

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

95

57-7

6

@Virginia Tech Hokies

50

25-25

7

@North Carolina Tar Heels

58

26-22

8

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

81

30-21

9

Virginia Cavaliers

82

30-15

10

Duke Blue Devils

79

31-21

11

@Florida State Seminoles

37

25-30

12

@South Florida Bulls

70

28-18

13

Boston College Eagles

72

27-19

North Carolina

North Carolina enters the 2011 football season in disarray after head coach Butch Davis was fired eight days before the start of training camp. Defensive coordinator Everett Withers has been elevated to interim head coach and retains Davis's entire staff, so that continuity should help keep the players on track. The Tar Heels have a glaring hole in the secondary with three new starters and sophomore quarterback Bryn Renner has to live up to his preseason hype, but if those two positions are solidified early, North Carolina has the talent to challenge for the ACC Coastal Division crown.

Georgia Tech

Tech figures to be a rushing juggernaut once again after leading the nation last year (323.3 yards per game). QB Tevin Washington and A-backs Orwin Smith (9.7 yards per carry) and Roddy Jones (6.8 ypc) all will thrive in coach Paul Johnson's option attack.

Washington vows the passing game will be much better than last year, when he and senior QB Josh Nesbitt combined to complete 38 percent of their throws with nine TDs and seven INTs. Six-foot-five WR Stephen Hill likely will be the featured target.

Look for the biggest improvement to come on defense, where the unit is entering its second year under coordinator Al Groh. Players say they've gotten much more comfortable in the 3-4 scheme and are ready to unleash their playmaking ability.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Week

Opponent

Win%

Avg Score

1

Western Carolina Catamounts

95

49-7

2

@Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

79

29-20

3

Kansas Jayhawks

85

32-16

4

North Carolina Tar Heels

35

21-26

5

@North Carolina State Wolfpack

33

24-28

6

Maryland Terrapins

31

21-27

7

@Virginia Cavaliers

67

25-20

8

@Miami (FL) Hurricanes

19

21-30

9

Clemson Tigers

35

21-27

11

Virginia Tech Hokies

25

21-30

12

@Duke Blue Devils

71

29-22

13

Georgia Bulldogs

20

20-32

Duke

The Blue Devils would appear to have a long way to go after winning only one conference game in a three-win season. But coach David Cutcliffe, who harps on building optimism, senses a significant change in fortunes.

"The worm has turned," Cutcliffe said.

Cutcliffe was baffled by losses in close games in 2010, something he said can be turned around by paying attention to more details. The Blue Devils lost four games by six points or less last year.

The encouraging spots for the Blue Devils begin with the passing aspects of their offense. They've established a core of receivers for returning starting quarterback Sean Renfree to throw to. Putting together a consistent rushing attack to alleviate pressure from Renfree continues to be something that gains traction only some of the time.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Duke Blue Devils

Week

Opponent

Win%

Avg Score

1

Richmond Spiders

95

44-6

2

Stanford Cardinal

5

18-45

3

@Boston College Eagles

38

21-27

4

Tulane Green Wave

71

30-22

5

@FIU Golden Panthers

67

30-25

7

Florida State Seminoles

8

20-39

8

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

55

28-25

9

Virginia Tech Hokies

17

19-31

10

@Miami (FL) Hurricanes

20

21-31

11

@Virginia Cavaliers

47

23-24

12

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

29

22-29

13

@North Carolina Tar Heels

28

21-31

Virginia

The Cavaliers will remain a step behind the league's contenders in overall talent, but especially on offense. The defense, on the other hand, has a chance to be sneaky-good. Not only is it London's area of expertise, but the unit is rich in starting experience, including next-level CB Chase Minnifield and DE Cam Johnson. Plus, the learning curve for Jim Reid's 4-3 alignment figures to be much flatter than it was a year ago, when everything was new.