Archive for the ‘US Election’ Category

In July there will be the conventions to elect the candidates and 8 November 2016 election date.

At this point in time the unbeatable candidates look like Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump has been the cross of the Republican Party as the establishment wanted Jeb Bush (brother of George and son of George W.)

Even as foreigners (like me) wonder how can he be still ahead, the explanation is quite simple.

He looks and sometimes say crazy things, but he speaks the truth and he is anti establishment (in US 80% of wealth now is in the hand of 10/20% of the population). People are just sick and tired of the situation.

There are a lot of people that say he can’t win as he is too much anti -Mexican…but I lived in North Italy and most of the supporter of the Northern League (against the South) are actually Southern Italy people that emigrated to the North). So …do not count on it.

Democrats. Hillary Clinton.

She is looks very professional and definitely part of the establishment as wife of an ex President.

Apart that big issue as soon as you go through the web you can see that she is very false. As a Secretary of State there are quite a few public statement that contradict her speeches.

A last point….current polls say that Clinton would annihilate Trump (polls so far in advance do not count much…plus the last elections were won by few points…not a landslide).

Some mathematical models ran by CNN with over 450 scenarios instead indicate Trump as winner. They even say that Clinton will need to score a 55% poll advantage just to have a real equal probability of winning.

It is a very hard bet …but my money would be on Donald Trump.

And do not despair…..history could happily (for the US) repeat….after a professional (but weak and in disarray as foreign policy- Iran failure, Vietnam disaster etc) President Carter, the snobbed and second class actor President Reagan…quite literally saved the boat!