Toronto, September
28th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 801
Ontario voters, more than four in ten (44%) say that if an election were held
today, they would support the Ontario PCs. Just over a quarter (27%) say they
would support the NDP, and fewer than a quarter (22%) say they would support
the Liberals. Few (5%) say they would support the Green party, while (2%) say
they would support another party.

Respondents most
likely to support the PCs include those aged 55-64 (52%), males (50%), the most
wealthy (51%), with some college/university (50%), and living in North-Eastern
Ontario (55%),

Respondents most
likely to support the Liberals include those 34 and younger (26%), 45-54 (24%),
or 65+ (25%), the least wealthy (31%), or earning $80,000-$100,000 (29%), with
a college/university (26%) or post-graduate degree (26%), and living in Toronto
(35%),

Respondents most
likely to support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (34%), 35-44 (35%),
females (30%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (31%), the least educated (32%) or a
post-graduate degree (29%), and living in the 905 (31%) or Southwest (29%)

Brown cruising toward massive majority

If an election were
held today, Brown is likely to secure an 84 seat majority in the expanded
legislature. The NDP would become the official opposition with 26 seats and the
Liberals would drop to 12 seats.

Brown and Horwath still unknown by the
plurality

Kathleen Wynne sees approval from fewer than
one-sixth (15%) and the disapproval of three-quarters (74%). Only (11%) say
they do not know. The premier’s net favourable score is -59.

Patrick Brown sees the approval of a quarter
of Ontarians (28%) and the disapproval of more than a third (30%). The
plurality say that they do not know what to make of Patrick Brown (43%). Brown’s
net favourable score is -2.

Andrea Horwath is the most popular provincial
leader with approval of more than a third (35%). Just under a quarter (24%) say
they disapprove. However, more than a four
in ten (41%) also say they do not know how they feel about Horwath. Her net
favourable score is +9.

“The Progressive Conservatives have rebounded
from a slight dip in August and once again hold a commanding lead over both the
Liberals and the NDP.” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.
“Brown's PC's have a considerable lead in five of Ontario's six regions, and
are tied with the Liberals in Toronto, which would decimate the Ontario Liberal
Caucus. Campaigns matter, but as the election grows
nearer, every month with a PC lead means it's more likely the vote is
solidifying behind Brown.”

Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.