BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity all have a fighting chance at winning Best Picture, but I would give 12 Years a slight edge in this category because it’s already taken home Best Picture at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Producers Guild, and a bunch of critics awards. Interestingly enough, it shared Best Picture with Gravity in an unprecedented tie at the Producers Guild Awards. Even though Gravity is looking pretty good in this category, Oscar voters will probably want to give this award to the more emotionally charged 12 Years a Slave.

Best Director is usually a good indicator of Best Picture, but this year, it looks like there’s going to be a split. Best Director will go to Alfonso Cuaron, who’s already won the Directors Guild Award.

Matthew McConaughey is the perceived frontrunner is this category. He’s won both the Golden Globe and the SAG award for Best Actor. A lot of people have been impressed by his career transformation (hailed as a “McConaissance”) – from failed rom-coms like Ghosts of Girlfriends Past to serious issue movies like Dallas Buyers Club. It helps that he’s been appearing in HBO’s True Detective every week, where Oscar voters get to see him play a completely different character than Ron Woodroof in Dallas Buyers Club. However, I think there’s a slight possibility of an upset by either Chiwetel Ejiofor (the previous frontrunner for Best Actor who would probably have this on lock if it were any other year) or Leonardo DiCaprio.

BEST ACTRESS

There isn’t much to say here except that Cate Blanchett definitely gives the strongest, most memorable performance out of anyone else in this category. The Woody Allen controversy will be on a lot of people’s minds when she wins, however.

Jared Leto has been absolutely unstoppable. If there’s an upset, I’ll be very shocked. Fassbender’s decision not to campaign has essentially paved the way for Leto to collect this award, otherwise he’d probably win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Lupita Nyong’oContenders: Jennifer Lawrence. She’s won both the Golden Globe and the BAFTA.

Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence are neck and neck for Best Supporting Actress. Lawrence has won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, with Nyong’o winning the SAG and the Critics Choice Award. I’m predicting Nyong’o, but I’m not very confident about that. Oscar voters love Lawrence and the only thing standing in her way is that she already won last year’s Academy Award for Best Actress.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle Blue Jasmine Dallas Buyers Club Her Nebraska

Will Win:HerContenders:American Hustle?

Voters might want to award David O. Russell in some way, thus giving him the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. But Her looks pretty strong.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Midnight Captain Phillips Philomena 12 Years a Slave The Wolf of Wall Street

Will Win: 12 Years a SlaveContenders:Philomena

Surprisingly enough, Philomena has picked up steam in this category. I would love to see Before Midnight win, but its chances look slim. The only sure bet looks to be 12 Years a Slave.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Frozen has attracted the most buzz and it’s made a whole lot of money at the box office, as well. It looks like a clear victory for Frozen.

BEST DOCUMENTARY – FEATURE

The Act of Killing Cutie and the Boxer Dirty Wars The Square 20 Feet from Stardom

Will Win:The Act of KillingContenders:The Square and 20 Feet from Stardom

20 Feet from Stardom is the only feel-good documentary out of these five nominees, and those tend to win the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. Last year, Searching for Sugar Man beat The Invisible War, How to Survive a Plague, 5 Broken Cameras, and The Gatekeepers. The Square has been picking up a lot of buzz, as well. But I’m going to go ahead and predict The Act of Killing anyway.