Will La Ni√±a Take El Ni√±o’s Place In The Pacific?

People all over the world are keeping a very close eye on how this historic El Ni√±o evolves during the next few months. We know from previous ocean monitoring that the end of El Ni√±o is often followed by the reversal of the phenomenon, known as La Ni√±a, although that is not always the case. Many years of ocean data show that La Ni√±a events have followed 11 of the last 15 El Ni√±o events. As the equatorial Pacific slowly cools down with a decaying El Ni√±o, La Ni√±a could start taking over as early as summer of 2016. —The Weather Network, 26 January 2016

Right now there is a very odd divergence of satellite and surface thermometers. It started about two years ago. It is not like the El Nino of 1998, where all four rose together, and satellites recorded a higher spike than the surface records. This time around the satellites are lower. According to the theory of Man-Made Global Catastrophe, the satellites, which record temperatures in the lower troposphere, should be warming faster than the surface. Where is that trend? I’m wary of concluding anything at this stage. There was a big gap in 2007 which resolved in two years. This gap is longer, but may resolve soon too. —Jo Nova, 27 January 2016

Political gridlock and collapsing commodities sent the carbon price in the EU’s Emissions Trading System spiraling to a 20-month low this week, making it even more unlikely that polluters will be encouraged to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The plummeting price is a blow for the already reeling ETS, which was supposed to be the EU’s main vehicle for getting polluters to cut emissions but has so far been plagued with problems. But wildly gyrating prices undercut that rationale. –Sara Stefanini, Politico, 27 January 2016

America is now exporting our glut of shale gas, and despite some shaky market conditions we’re finding European buyers keen on importing these new LNG supplies. As more and more LNG supplies come online around the world, buyers will have more supply options than they had in the past, when overland pipeline routes were there only option. As a result, natural gas will be increasingly sold based on spot prices, rather than oil price linkages, and likely won’t come with the decade long contracts that were once the norm. Europe is an excellent example of this, as it looks to move away from long-term take-or-pay contracts with Russia’s Gazprom. —The American Interest, 26 January 2016

The chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee said last month’s historic international climate change accord will fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) argued that since the pact’s climate goals are not legally binding, the United States and other countries have no reason to stick to their promises. The pact “will be no more significant to the United States than was the Kyoto Protocol,” Inhofe wrote Tuesday in the Washington Examiner. –Timothy Cama, The Hill, 26 January 2016

India’s energy demand is likely to almost double in next 25 years as the economy is estimated to expand to $9 trillion by 2040, US oil major ExxonMobil said in its Energy Outlook 2040. “Through 2040, we see China, India and other non-OECD countries – home to seven-eighth of the world’s population – needing much more energy to fuel economic development and rising living standards,” ExxonMobil said. India’s electricity usage is expected to soar, rising 185 per cent during 2014-2040. Its coal-fired electricity use may more than double during this period. —Press Trust of India, 27 January 2016