Andy Murray's golden summer has ground to a halt and he will undergo minor surgery on a lingering back injury on Monday that could keep him out of tennis until the Australian Open in January.

The reigning Wimbledon champion still wants to play in the ATP World Tour Finals at the O2 Arena in Greenwich in November but that is unlikely. He has already wiped out his Asian schedule and his medium-term aim is to recover from treatment to be in shape for his annual winter training block in Miami during December. If his recovery goes to plan, he hopes to be fully fit for Melbourne.

"Next week Andy is set to undergo minor back surgery in an effort to clear up a long-standing back problem," a statement from Murray's team said on Thursday. "He will definitely miss tournaments in Bangkok, Tokyo and Shanghai. The problem flared up during the Italian Open this year when Andy was forced to retire and he sought advice from a range of specialists. After recently playing on hard courts and clay Andy once again sought medical advice about solving the issue once and for all. The aim is to be fully fit for the new season."

A Murray insider described his chances of playing in Greenwich as "touch and go". Although the surgery will be "non-invasive", according to a source, it would seem inadvisable to risk aggravating the injury. The Scot, who has been troubled with persistent back pain since the season-ending tournament final in 2011, decided in the past few days that stitch-and-mend treatment is proving detrimental, even though he has won the US Open and Wimbledon titles since.

He said in a tweet on Thursday night that he would be "back stronger" and also wrote: "Thanks so much for all the nice messages today... Will let everyone know how it goes."

He was struck down midway through the Rome Open this summer and pulled out of the French Open, a wise choice given his storming performance at Wimbledon, where he beat the world No1, Novak Djokovic, in three sets in the final.

However, Murray's form fell away a little after Wimbledon, in Montreal and Cincinnati, and he lost to a resurgent Stanislas Wawrinka in the quarter-finals at Flushing Meadows, where he had gone with high hopes of retaining the US Open title.

Murray handled the physical pressure of leading Great Britain's Davis Cup tie against Croatia last weekend, winning both his singles and partnering Colin Fleming to take the doubles in a 4-1 triumph that put the team back in the elite world group for the first time since 2008. He later declared his commitment to remain in the squad for Great Britain's opening away match against the United States, straight after the Australian Open.

It is clear that Murray and his coach Ivan Lendl look at the Melbourne tournament as the priority now. The option was to manage the injury with pain killers but it became increasingly obvious that strategy would have to be revised once his mobility in big matches made him vulnerable, most obvious in his loss to Wawrinka.

The specialist physio Mark Bender accompanied him in New York, in the absence of the recently departed Andy Ireland, but he was not able to play with the fluency he showed earlier in the summer.

It is thought the struggle of coming through three matches on the demanding clay of Umag last weekend convinced him he should seek a more radical and lasting solution. He was buoyed by the experience of lifting Great Britain back to the top of world team tennis, but the effort clearly took its toll.

The nature of Murray's injury remains a minor mystery. He has refused in the past to confirm if it is disc-related, and, if it were, he might have to contemplate an extended absence from the game, much the same as Rafael Nadal did when he took seven months out to ease the long-term pain in his knees.

It is thought Nadal's spectacular comeback, which he crowned with victory in the US Open final over Djokovic, convinced Murray to opt for a more drastic solution to his problem. There is no guarantee of surgical success with such an injury but Murray was tiring of the constant reliance on pain killers to get through tough matches.

Although he has long insisted it is not a priority for him to reach the No1 world ranking, that quest will take a serious hit as he withdraws from key tournaments over the next two months.

It is a brave call by Murray, but a judicious one. It is pointless playing on in pain that can only exacerbate the underlying complaint and, if he returns strong and fitter in January, he will be able to launch a more convincing assault on the major titles in 2014. He is still only 26 and has plenty of time to rebuild. Were he to carry on playing, he could only continue to store up trouble for the future.

The increased physicality of the modern game has stretched all players to their limits and the new challenge for those in the top 10, who regularly go deeper in tournaments, is to managed those demands on their bodies.