DFM

Demographic Foresight Model - DFM

The Demographic Foresight Model developed by the REGINA project is a step-by-step tool that allows local planners to foresee the impacts of opening or closing an industrial project on a local community’s population size and composition, as well as impacts on the labour market.

The DFM tool allows planners to test different scenarios to understand the demographic implications caused by changes to local industry.

A key component of the DFM is the Employment Shock Scenario, which predicts the demographic consequences of sudden changes in local employment. It enables planners to assess how many jobs will be created or lost and how these jobs are likely to be distributed between age groups and gender. From there, it can be determined if new jobs can be filled by the local labour market supply and what the needs are in terms of training and upgrading the workforce.

Publications

Case: Turning the tide in Storuman

In Storuman in Swedish Lapland, the REGINA DFM has been used to study the impacts of a large gold mining project, which is currently undergoing a feasibility study. Situated just outside Storuman, the mine is expected to attract around 200 people to the municipality, which has a population of 6,000. This is a noteworthy increase, especially in light of the fact that the population grew by one person in 2014 and another three people in 2015.