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Israel at “Highest State of Readiness” for Gaza Ground Invasion

Sheera Frenkel reports
in the Times of London that a senior IDF officer told her the army has
been moved to its “highest state of readiness.” In IDF jargon, this is
called P+1, which means the entire army must be ready for combat on one
hour’s notice. Israel will not invade Gaza during Shabbat (too many
religious-settler soldiers who are observant). That means the invasion
could begin as early as Saturday night, Israel time, less than 24 hours
from now. Cast Lead also started at the end of Shabbat, January 3,
2009.

Haaretz reports that the Israeli cabinet is considering calling up as
many as 75,000 reservists, which is a massive mobilization many times
larger than the call-up for Cast Lead. Even if you discount this report
as psy-ops on the part of Israel against Hamas, it appears that
Netanyahu wants a massive display of force. Though it could mean he
intends to re-occupy Gaza, I strongly doubt that’s his intent. It would
bring massive international opprobrium, which isn’t what he wants in
the run-up to elections.

My sense (wholly personal and not based on specific knowledge) is
that Bibi and Barak plan for this to be a two to three-week military
exercise. I can’t believe they’d want it to fester longer than that
because that would put in major dent in the feel-good atmosphere he’d
like to engender in the late-January election period. That still gives
plenty of time for the IDF to collect its scalps, which can be
prominently displayed before the Israeli public, thus giving Bibi his
own personal war on which he can proudly campaign.
The death toll has risen to 35 in Gaza. There were no Israeli deaths today.

I was gratified to see Egypt’s prime minister visiting Gaza today.
It was a gutsy move by Pres. Morsi. I think Israel can expect more of
this if/when it invades. Tunisia’s foreign minister is due
later today there. I would love to see Turkey’s foreign minister
visiting Gaza as well. Erdogan promised to visit. There couldn’t be a
better time. In fact, if a different foreign minister scheduled a visit
every day, it might make it considerably harder for the IDF to massacre
Gazan civilians. Another visit from the emir of Qatar would be great
right around now. How about one of those chubby Saudi crown princes?
Get out of the Lamborghinis and put yourself on the line for your fellow
Muslims for a change.

Many have taken to calling this Cast Lead II, but I think that’s
wrong. A lot has changed since 2009: the Arab Spring. Egypt is
governed by the Muslim Brotherhood. That is why the visit earlier today
of the Egyptian prime minister to Gaza, even though symbolic, was a
major piece of theater.

Turkey has become hostile to Israel since the Mavi Marmara massacre.
Ironically, Turkey was in the process of mediating a possible peace
agreement between Syria and Israel when Olmert chose, instead, to begin
one of his two wars. Erdogan’s goverment has offered once again to
mediate the current conflict. This has to be in part intended to needle
Netanyahu, who the Turkish leader knows wants nothing of a ceasefire
nor of anything to do with Turkey.

Another difference: Obama is now president instead of
president-elect. Not that this means much. But one thing it does mean
is this is Obama’s problem, not one he can slough off as he did in 2009
when he responded by saying he wasn’t president and therefore couldn’t
do anything to stop the killing. Now he can. If he doesn’t, it will
reflect upon him as president.

Rep. Keith Ellison, one of two Muslim members of Congress, called
for “restraint” and a “reduction in hostilities.” Not sure why he
couldn’t say the “C” word (ceasefire) but it’s a helluva lot better than
any other U.S. politician, that’s for sure. The only Jewish Israeli
politician who’s explicitly opposed the war is Hadash’s Dov Kheinin, who
spoke eloquently at last night’s anti-war rally in Tel Aviv. He was
joined at the rally by Meretz’s Nitzan Horowitz. As a party, Meretz is
definitely about to take a strong position in favor of saying sometime
in the very near future they’ll take a definite position on the war, one
way or the other.

Iran also looms as another potential military threat. No doubt
Netanyahu may be viewing Operation Pillar of Sand, er Smoke as a warm-up
for the next really big battle, over the skies of Teheran. But I
wonder how many threats Israel can balance before it picks one fight too
many.

Israel no longer rules supreme in the region. It has competitors,
both politically and militarily. It’s dominance is still not seriously
shaken, but the IDF’s swagger has been diminished by its performance in
previous engagements with Hezbollah and Hamas.

All this bodes for a shorter, more confined conflict. I could be
wrong. I’ve learned never to underestimate the will to mayhem of
Israeli leaders.

While I’ve taken to calling Netanyahu and the Likud the permanent
right-wing majority, I’m now calling Israel the permanent war state.
The Middle East’s Sparta. As I wrote yesterday, Israel’s government
does not want peace. It wants chaos among its perceived enemies. The
only way to achieve that is to start a war every few years. Lately, the
rate of conflict has been about every three years (2006, 2009, 2012),
which has picked up considerably from decades ago when war’s tended to
average once a decade or so (1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982).

I have just created a new Facebook group: No to Gaza War. If you belong to Facebook, please join and suggest friends and allies do as well.