opinion article

Until the Next Presidential Election

The presidential campaigns in Iran, the political parties, organizations and individuals that prepare themselves for the 2013 presidential election in Iran and who have already begun their campaign in the social media, websites and news outlets are so important that they must be scrutinized from every angle. We will look at them in upcoming news stories.

The content of the activities of these individuals and groups are presented under these groupings:

· Traditional Principlists range from individuals such as Ali Akbar Velayati, Ali Larijani and Mohsen Rezai to Hassan Rowhani, Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel and, perhaps, Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri. Others such as Manoutchehr Mottaki and Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi are also sometimes included in this group, even though they do not seem to be serious contenders.

· Mohammad–Bagher Qalibaf is a serious contender, with or without the support of a political party, because of what is available to him at Tehran’s municipality. He is someone who may be acceptable to all Principlist groups – except the Steadfast Front.

· Groups close to the supreme leader of the Islamic republic comprise another block. Even though all the groups that fall in the above categories proclaim themselves to be obedient to ayatollah Khamenei’s leadership, the split among the Principlists which occurred in the ninth Majlis elections (in 2012) – despite the supreme leader’s calls for unity – demonstrated that Principlists intended to campaign for the parliament through two separate slates in Tehran, while also being supported by others such as Qalibaf in other parts of the country. Because of this, the views of close associates of the supreme leader, as represented by the Kayhan daily, Fars news agency, and institutions close to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) must be looked at separately.

· Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani who, despite his support for reformists in the last presidential election, has never disregarded the idea of a unity government that includes such individuals as Nategh Nouri, Hassan Rowhan and Ali-Akbar Velayati, is a potential contender. And while rumors of his candidacy are still emerging, his chances need to be taken into account because of his potential to either stay independent from existing political groupings or by forming his own coalition through the inclusion of elements from reformers and Principlists.

· At the bottom of this list are the reformists whose leaders have until now implicitly stayed away from presenting candidates because of the continued house arrest of the Green Movement leaders – Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi – and also the imprisonment of many of their forces. Still, with eight months left to the election, it is not clear whether this group will remain on the sidelines, as it did during the elections for the ninth Majlis, or whether it will support a candidate from a specific group or a common candidate who appears on multiple slates. Some individuals such as Najafi, Jahangiri and Aref are mentioned as possible reformist candidates.

These series of articles, the first one of which you are reading today, will discuss the most likely candidates, who are also covered more widely by the media, as well as their views, positions, and potential election strategies.

Saeed Jalili

Saeed Jalili is one of the most serious contenders in the next presidential election because of his potential to lead the Steadfast Front, comprised of a disillusioned group of former conservatives with an ambivalent love-hate relationship toward Ahmadinejad. Saeed Jalili is strongly endorsed by the website Rajanews – the mouthpiece for the Steadfast Front – and his supporters have been campaigning for him on weblogs and Facebook for some time now.

Supporters of the Steadfast Front embrace many of Ahmadinejad’s ideals, including his opposition to both former conservatives and reformists. However, they view Ahmadinejad as a corrupted and deviant politician. Meanwhile, they align themselves closely with ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a famous, hardline cleric from Qom and an Ahmadinejad supporter in the 2005 presidential election.

The Steadfast Front has a strong mobilizational capacity. During the ninth Majlis elections (in 2012), the only group that was able to mobilize large numbers of Basiji students in universities was the Steadfast Front. These students can assist in Jalili’s bid for the presidency.

In addition, the Steadfast Front may have close ties to the upper echelons of power in the Islamic Republic. His supporters highlight his role as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator and equate his modest lifestyle to that of ayatollah Khamenei. They also translate ayatollah Khamenei’s emphasis on “national self-confidence and justice” as tacit shows of support for Jalili.