Note well that the three non-Islamist candidates had a majority. This means that if voters stay within these two camps, Shafiq will be elected president.

The main irony is that their leading candidate shows support for the kind of rule being delivered by the army junta now and even by the (supposedly) despised Mubarak regime. A lot of Egyptians want quiet and order. And Shafiq outpaced the alternative “establishment” candidate Amr Moussa because he is even more bland and moderate.

Again, though, note that Shafiq could be a president with few powers facing a parliament that is handcrafting a constitution intended to bring Islamism. Moreover he has no political organization.

Or does he? Perhaps he has one that can be called the Egyptian army. A key point: If the Brotherhood doesn’t make the army very happy (financially), there might be some serious confrontations. In the longer run, there could even be a coup and that would return Egypt back to where it was politically before the whole “Arab Spring” business began!

The biggest shock of the election was the massive vote for the communist-Nasserist Sabbahi of the al-Karamah party. Does this show that there is a floating “radical vote” that cares less about ideology than about massive change? His voters mainly came from big cities.

Sabbahi is as dangerous as any Salafist—as anti-American and as eager to go to war against Israel—though he lacks a strong organization. Is this support for him, though, merely a more militant expression of nostalgia for the old regime likely to benefit the anti-Brotherhood side or a yearning for upheaval that might make people almost equally willing to vote for a Nasserist or an Islamist? We will find out.

Is Islamism continuing to march forward? Yes. Remember this principle: The Key to “Coopting” Islamists is for them to lose and accept defeat. But what if they win victory, especially an overwhelming victory in practice, they become more aggressive.

The Brotherhood’s recent history (and also that of Hamas, Hizballah, and the Turkish regime) proves this point and that’s why Western policies of encouraging the Islamists as a way to moderate them are wrong.

At this point, the issue depends on how smart the Islamist leaders are going to be. In retrospect, they made a mistake in running a candidate for president. If they had thrown their backing behind a non-Islamist figurehead and then made him a ceremonial president, the Brotherhood would be more respected and better off today. Ultimately, it cannot control its naked lust for power. The presidential election will make it more eager to transform Egypt’s laws.

In addition, keep in mind the importance of violence. The Salafists are hopping mad, believing they’ve been cheated. It is likely they will attack secularists, women who evince “non-Muslim” behavior, and Christians. In some areas, they will raid police stations. The question is whether such violence will build a revolutionary base or drive frightened Egyptians into the arms of Shafiq and the army.

Finally, the liberals are cut out entirely, partly due to the conditions of Egypt, partly to their own ineptness. Ahmed Khairy, spokesman for the Free Egyptians Party, a secular grouping that’s closest to what Western democracy enthusiasts would like to see in Egypt, described the election as “the worst possible scenario.” He called Mursi an “Islamic fascist” and Shafiq a “military fascist.”

If that’s how a moderate sees the choices, though it’s not fair to Shafiq, it shows how bad things are in Egypt.

24 Comments, 15 Threads

1.
stuart williamson

It reads like a recipe for political and economic chaos. Implacable Islamists. Uncompromising communists. Entrenched military cadres. No possibility of a functioning coalition. The Arab spring has produced an eternal saharan sandstorm, violent and blinding, obliterating any sense of direction or escape. One more demonstration of the destructive effects of Jihadist drive for hegemony.

Tnank your for your explanation of a situation that makes reasonable forecasting impossible. From Israel’s point of view I would think they would prefer Shafiq as the least of three evils.

The Brothers will play by the rules only so long as there is profit in it.

If they can’t get that democratically approved stamp of western style legitimacy (think Jimmy Carter, or is that Crater?)by engineering a win at the polls, they will downplay, even reject the democratic process and go ro the barrel of a gun to get their power.

Obama has made Jimmy Carter look like a master of Middle Eastern policy managemant by comparison. If you thought 1979 and Iram was bad, just wait for it.

The entire Muslim world is essentially a basket case and has been for centuries. Until it undergoes an enlightenment and abandons its absolutist, supremacist, xenophobic core it shall remain so. And since that’s what the entire religion and culture are based on, I hold out no hope.

Professor Rubin, am I right in thinking that the second last word in this sentence should be parliamentary, not presidential: “Note that only about 44 percent of voters backed an Islamist candidate, compared to 75 percent in the presidential election…”?

After all, this article is about the presidential election, not the parliamentary one.

But currently in first place is the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi, who in an inspiring stump speech before the students of Cairo University the other night told them, “Death in the name of Allah is our goal.”

The MB is not following at the Turkish model of allowing overt secularism while Ialamizing the state from the inside. It wants to transform Egypt deeper and faster since that is the nature of revolutions and it thinks none of its opponents can stop it. What could give the MB pause is the parlous state of Egypt’s economy and Egypt’s need for international aid to get back on its feet. It doesn’t mean the MB will moderate; it will simply be constrained by reality, like the Nazis in Germany were for a while from implementing the more radical aspects of their political program.

The bottom line is in the long run, Egypt’s future is not a bright one.

But NormanF, Egypt will be fine as soon as the Caliphate is restored don’t you know? The Brotherhood will make all things right as soon as they get enough control. Allah will provide all they need in the form of non Muslim nations they can attack and loot. And then there are always other nations that believe the Muslims will behave themselves so long as they keep giving them stuff so they wont have to attack and loot their neighbors.

“And then there are always other nations that believe the Muslims will behave themselves so long as they keep giving them stuff so they wont have to attack and loot their neighbors”

As long as the American infidels continue to pay the Egyptian military its jizyah Carter agreed to, Israel should be mostly fine, pretty much, for a while…until they want more…. then we’ll see. How is this a bad plan?

A defeat? Not at all. As you have observed, the decisive action, the vote for parliament, has already happened. Between them, the Muslum Brotherhood and the Salafist (Islamic Fascists) will control at least 3/4 of that parliament, meaning they will write the new constitution, meaning Islamic Shaira law will be the new constitution. If the new president is himself a member of the Brotherhood, as is entirely possible, he will simply be a willing figurehead for that parliament. If he is not, he will still be a figurehead with no more power than what parliament allows him to have. To borrow a phrase from the old science fiction TV show Babylon Five: “the avalanche has begun, it is too late for the pebbles to vote (for a president)”

And at this point, perhaps it is best to let this happen. Egypt, let us remember, has been down this road before. Egypt got the benefits of democratic tutoring under the British before they became independent. With independence, they got a constitutional monarchy and a parliament, complete with free elections – until it was overthrown in the coup of 1952, a coup which the majority of the people of Egypt supported and did not resist. So now, they have a new parliament and are, by all signs, willingly going to vote for Shaira law. Let them, if that is what the 90% of the population who are themselves Muslum want. Shaira law in a country with no oil wealth will not go well, but that is of no concern to the West. The result is likely to be poverty and misery, but again, that is not the West’s business. Let the Muslum brotherhood revive the local economy and feed the people – if they can.

If anyone thinks that anyone other than the Egyptian military is going to determine the next Egyptian government then they simply refuse to learn from history.

It does not matter what happened in the parliamentary elections.
If the military wants the ex-General and Mubaraknik as President, then he will be President.
If the parliament tries to transfer all power to a Prime Minister, the “street violence” will “force” the military to take action that will either require new parliamentary elections that will return a more suitable body, or a “compromise” and “national unity” Prime Minister from a secular party, or even just another declaration of “emergency” by the new President that just happens to suspend parliament until the “crisis” has passed.

An interesting analysis – we will see what happens. How will the Muslim Brotherhood react to this scenario and does it have enough power to challenge the military, now and in the future. How will that segment of the Egyptian
people who hate Mubarak (and therefore the “Mubaraknik”) react to such a scenario.

Does anyone have links to Internet sites, articles etc. with analysis of
the Egyptian army, its role in society and its strength?

By the way, I hope Professor Rubin will continue to provide us with informed,
thoughtful analysis as developments warrant.

There were several candidates preferable to Shafiq but it appears that the only thing that many military and intelligence officials care about is personal power and wealth at all costs. Many are going to be in for a surprise if they think that recreating a new dictatorship will be an easy task.

“When Islamists win, they become bolder and more aggressive. Western observers who talk about moderating Islamism think the opposite.”
This is only true for the vanishingly small number of Western observers who are able to think! Since most are as ignorant and deranged in their lawless, fascist antiChristian bigotry about Islam as about true Christianity vs their fraud, it’s clear that for them thinking only happens accidentally & on rare occasions, if ever.