Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 24 May @ 5pm

At 5pm today, Tropical Storm CHEDENG intensified and lingered WNW at 15 kph still inching its way closer to the Visayas and Bicol Region. The center of CHEDENG is about 630 km ESE of Sorsogon with wind gusts of up to 140 kph. CHEDENG is expected to intensify further as it moves WNW closer to Eastern Luzon. CHEDENG's spiraling rainbands is now reaching Samar and Bicol. Deteriorating weather condition shall begin tonight as the storm approaches.

At 2am tomorrow – 25 May, it shall be 600 km ESE of Naga City/CWC or 500 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes. On 25 May at 2pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 440 km ENE of Naga City/CWC or 320 km ENE of Gigmoto, Catanduanes now with increased wind gusts of 165 kph.

***On 28 May(2pm), the system is estimated to be
520 km NE of Basco, BatanesDuring this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall decrease to 230 kph.

***Long range forecast on 29 May(2pm) reveals CHEDENG to be
1,375 km NE of Basco, Batanes (now out of the PAR)During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall weaken to 165 kph.

***
CHEDENG is expected to intensify further to minimal TYPHOON Strength during the forecast period with projected wind gusts of up to 250 km/hr. Low ocean heat content in the later part of the forecast shall weaken the system as it tracks out of the PAR and into the Ryukus. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards.

***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
Based on this latest forecast from JTWC and ECMWF, the system shows a sharp turn to the north and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast period approaching close to Basco, Batanes sometime on 27 May or early morning of 28 May, trekking also closely at Santa Ana, Palaui Island and Northern Cagayan Province. Expect stormy weather in these areas beginning 27 May.

Forecast models still shows SONGDA/CHEDENG to remain in open waters moving to the northeast of Northern Visayas, the Bicol Region, Northern Cagayan Province and now heavily affecting the Batanes Group of Islands in the medium range forecast. CHEDENG is also expected to accelerate later in the forecast between 26 to 29 May.

Overall, Landfall is still 50% possible along the northern coast of extreme Northern Luzon and 20% possible along the Bicol region as of this forecast.

The system is expected to enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas, the Bicol region and the rest of Eastern Luzon. The rainbands of CHEDENG shall affect Northern Visayas, Northern Bicol, Isabela, Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands when this system approaches. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country in the morning of 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan and shall head towards Okinawa and Western Honshu, Japan as an extra tropical storm system. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.