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Box Office Analysis: Sept. 29

By:
Martin Grove
Oct 09, 2002

The South invaded the North end of the box office chart this weekend as Sweet Home Alabama captured first place with a dazzling $37.5 million.
The Tuxedo celebrated in second place with a $15.1 million launch.
Barbershop finished third, holding well with $10.1 million. My Big Fat Greek Wedding was fourth with $9.8 million and a cume of $137 million on its way to $160 million, while The Banger Sisters retreated to fifth place with a sleepy $5.4 million.
Driven by Alabama, key films skyrocketed 43 percent over last year -- $99 million versus $74 million.
THE TOP TEN
Buena Vista/Touchstone's PG-13 rated romantic comedy Sweet Home Alabama kicked off in first place to a record setting ESTIMATED $37.5 million at 3,293 theaters ($11,378 per theater).
Alabama's average per theater was the highest for any film playing in wide release this weekend.
Directed by Andy Tennant, it stars Reese Witherspoon. The record setting opening elevated Witherspoon to Hollywood's A List of movie stars who can generate long opening weekend box office lines.
With $37.5 million already in hand, Alabama is a safe bet to crack $100 million in domestic theaters. Given its opening, it would seem at this point that the low end is probably $115 million and the high end is probably $130 million. Using the industry's most basic projection formula of three times the opening weekend gross would put Alabama's likely domestic cume at $112.5 million, a number that feels low given the heat of opening weekend. More accurate projections of where Alabama is heading will be possible when we know how well it holds in its second weekend.
Coming on the heels of BV's success with its late summer blockbuster Signs, which has grossed over $221 million through this weekend, Alabama is another strong indication that the Disney company's movie division is performing very well, is well managed and is a strong competitor.
Alabama is also good news for MGM, which has Witherspoon starring in the sequel Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde, opening next July Fourth weekend.
"It's been quite a weekend for us," Buena Vista Distribution president Chuck Viane said Sunday morning. "Spirited Away continues (and) looks great and Moonlight Mile opened very nice and smartly. We're going to expand that to 400 runs next week. And then Reese opens up and blows the doors off of September! What more can you say?"
Focusing on Alabama's sweet launch, Viane noted, "It's the highest September opening in history. The old one was the original Rush Hour at $33 million (the weekend of Sept. 18-20, 1998). So this clearly blows away that."
In addition, looking at the record books indicates that Alabama probably also ranks as the biggest romantic comedy opening ever, beating Runaway Bride's $35.06 million opening the weekend of July 30-Aug. 1, 1999.
While Disney knew Alabama was on track to open big, was the studio surprised at just how well the picture performed? "We knew it was going to open very, very well," Viane replied. "I knew we had a shot at the (September) record, but to be able to surpass it like this, that's what caught me off-guard. It's the absolute strength of the movie. We knew it was good. Obviously, we put (Reese Witherspoon) in the right vehicle and Andy Tennant made a great movie. But this is America's new sweetheart. Anyway you look at it, she just dominated this movie. She smiled and everything happened."
As for who was there opening weekend, Viane said, "Actually, from 12 to 80. It was everybody. Again, there are new types of family movies and this is one of them. It's a rating friendly movie (with a PG-13) families had every reason to believe everybody would like it. Friday night the teens came out. Last night and yesterday afternoon the families came out. Last night the adults came out and couples. Interestingly enough, even on Saturday night some 30 percent-plus of our audience was teenagers. That's very strong for a Saturday."
Pointing to the film's CinemaScore exit polls, Viane said, "Every group gave it an A. The men were all A minuses and the women were all A's. The playability is terrific. I think it's going to have big time legs. Do I know there's a huge picture (Universal's Red Dragon) coming in next week? Yes. But I think we're demographically sufficiently different and crowd pleasing, so I think we'll be there for a long time."
DreamWorks' PG-13 action comedy The Tuxedo opened in second place to a well dressed ESTIMATED $15.1 million at 3,022 theaters ($4,997 per theater).
Directed by Kevin Donovan, it stars Jackie Chan and Jennifer Love Hewitt.
"It's a good opening," DreamWorks distribution head Jim Tharp said Sunday morning. "Going in, we were looking at (Jackie Chan's) Shanghai Noon as a comparison. This compares very favorably to their opening, which was on a holiday weekend ($19.65 million for the four day Memorial Day weekend of May 26-29, 2000)."
Asked if DreamWorks was pleased, Tharp observed, "We had to be pleased since the The Tuxedo gross was very close to the opening of Shanghai Noon, which opened on a holiday weekend."
Those on hand, Tharp noted, were "55 percent male. 44 percent of the audience was families, which is very high. 54 percent were under 25. It should continue to be the family movie of choice for the next few weeks."
MGM's PG-13 rated urban appeal comedy Barbershop fell two pegs to third place in its third week, still holding well with an ESTIMATED $10.1 million (-21%) at 2,051 theaters (+157 theaters; $4,924 per theater). Its cume is approximately $51.4 million, heading for $65 million or more in domestic theaters.
Directed by Tim Story, it stars Ice Cube, Anthony Anderson, Sean Patrick Thomas, Eve and Cedric The Entertainer.
IFC Films' release of Gold Circle Films and HBO's PG rated romantic comedy blockbuster My Big Fat Greek Wedding slid one slot to fourth place in its 24th week, still showing great legs with an ESTIMATED $9.77 million (even) at 1,841 theaters (-12 theaters; $5,307 per theater). Its cume is approximately $137.0 million, heading for $160 million in domestic theaters.
When Wedding passes $140.5 million later this week it will break the record set by Artisan Entertainment's The Blair Witch Project and become the domestic box office's biggest grossing independent film ever.
Directed by Joel Zwick, it stars Nia Vardalos and John Corbett.
Fox Searchlight Pictures' R rated low budget comedy The Banger Sisters slid three rungs to fifth place in its second week with a less lively ESTIMATED $5.43 million (-46%) at 2,738 theaters (theater count unchanged; $1,981 per theater). Its cume is approximately $18.8 million.
Written and directed by Bob Dolman, it stars Goldie Hawn, Susan Sarandon and Geoffrey Rush.
Paramount and Miramax's PG-13 rated very expensive romantic epic The Four Feathers added theaters in its second week and fell one notch to sixth place with a depressing ESTIMATED $3.63 million (-47%) at 2,187 theaters ($1,658 per theater). Its cume is approximately $12.5 million.
Directed by Shekhar Kapur, it stars Heath Ledger, Wes Bentley and Kate Hudson.
Fox Searchlight Pictures' R rated low budget thriller One Hour Photo dropped one slot to seventh place in its sixth week with a quiet ESTIMATED $3.0 million (-35%) at 1,303 theaters (-29 theaters; $2,302 per theater). Its cume is approximately $26.1 million.
Written and directed by Mark Romanek, it stars Robin Williams.
Franchise Films' R rated action thriller Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever from Warner Bros. plunged four posts to eighth place with a dull ESTIMATED $2.68 million (-62%) at 2,705 theaters (theater count unchanged; $989 per theater). Its cume is approximately $11.5 million.
Directed by "Kaos" and produced by Elie Samaha, Chris Lee and "Kaos," it stars Antonio Banderas and Lucy Liu.
Buena Vista/Touchstone's PG-13 rated supernatural thriller blockbuster Signs dropped two pegs to ninth place in its ninth week with an okay ESTIMATED $2.3 million (-33%) at 1,783 theaters (-555 theaters; $1,307 per theater). Its cume is approximately $221.1 million, heading for $230 million.
Directed by M. Night Shyamalan, it stars Mel Gibson.
There was a three way tie for tenth place in Sunday's estimates.
Revolution Studios and Columbia's low budget PG-13 teen comedy Stealing Harvard, which was ninth last weekend, in its fourth week did a quiet ESTIMATED $1.5 million (-55%) at 2,323 theaters (-43 theaters; $646 per theater). Its cume is approximately $12.7 million.
Directed by Bruce McCulloch, it stars Tom Green and Jason Lee.
20th Century Fox's PG-13 thriller Swimfan, which was eighth last week, in its fourth week did a soft ESTIMATED $1.5 million (-56%) at 1,838 theaters (-734 theaters; $816 per theater). Its cume is approximately $26.6 million.
Directed by John Polson, it stars Jesse Bradford, Erika Christensen and Shiri Appleby.
Senator Entertainment and Columbia's R rated child kidnapping thriller Trapped, which was tenth last week, did in its second week a slim ESTIMATED $1.5 million (-53%) at 2,227 theaters (theater count unchanged; $674 per theater). Its cume is approximately $5.7 million.
Directed by Luis Mandoki, it stars Charlize Theron, Courtney Love, Stuart Townsend and Kevin Bacon.
OTHER OPENINGS
This weekend also saw the arrival of Buena Vista/ Touchstone's PG-13 rated drama Moonlight Mile in limited release to an encouraging ESTIMATED $0.35 million at 22 theaters ($15,779 per theater).
Written and directed by Brad Silberling, it stars Jake Gyllenhaal, Dustin Hoffman, Susan Sarandon and Holly Hunter.
"It's an emotional film, very smart and very adult," Buena Vista Distribution's Chuck Viane said Sunday. "Brad Silberling did an absolutely terrific job. When you have people like Dustin and Susan and Jake and Holly and Ellen (Pompeo) in a movie (it makes a difference).
"Brad was at the Archlight (multiplex in Hollywood) yesterday. He was actually doing a personal one-on-one after the movie with the audience. They are really pleased about it. So we're expanding this (coming) weekend. We're going to pick up an additional 400 runs in every major city in America. We're going to be in the top 60 markets in the country. We'll be somewhere between 420 and 450 runs. The picture's playing great. The Archlight started Friday at $9,800 and went to $17,700 last night -- and nobody knew Brad was going to be there. I think this is a really good start. I'm really looking forward to the expansion on this one."
SNEAK PREVIEWS
There were no national sneak previews this weekend.
EXPANSIONS
On the expansion front this weekend United Artists' R rated dark comedy Igby Goes Down widened in its third week with an upbeat ESTIMATED $0.69 million (-10%) at 121 theaters (+19 theaters; $5,672 per theater). Its cume is approximately $2.1 million.
Written and directed by Burr Steers, it stars Kieran Culkin, Claire Danes, Jeff Goldblum, Jared Harris, Amanda Peet, Ryan Phillippe, Bill Pullman and Susan Sarandon.
"We're going to go into 21 more markets on Friday," an MGM spokesman said Sunday morning. "That should bring us to like 140 theaters."
Lions Gate Films' R rated kinky romance Secretary expanded in its second week with a sexy ESTIMATED $0.38 million at 53 theaters (+42 theaters; $7,075 per theater). Its cume is approximately $0.65 million.
Directed by Steven Shainberg, it stars James Spader and Maggie Gyllenhaal.
"It's probably heading to somewhere between $4-5 million on the art house circuit," Lions Gate president Tom Ortenberg said Sunday morning.
"We'll see what happens on the next couple of spreads. We're adding more runs on Oct. 4 and 11 and will probably reach our widest point on Oct. 18. Then we'll see how far outside the big cities we can go."
Buena Vista/ Disney's PG rated animated feature Spirited Away went wider in its second week, still in high spirits with an ESTIMATED $0.52 million at 53 theaters (+27 theaters; $9,827 per theater). Its cume is approximately $1.1 million.
Directed by Hayao Miyazaki, it was the Golden Bear best picture winner at the Berlin International Film Festival. Spirited Away is the all-time top grossing film at the Japanese box office.
Focus Features' R rated French comedic whodunit 8 Women expanded in its second week with a still attractive ESTIMATED $0.3 million at 57 theaters (+40 theaters; $5,630 per theater). Its cume is approximately $0.8 million.
Directed by Francois Ozon, it stars Catherine Deneuve, Isabelle Huppert, Emmanuelle Beart, Fanny Ardant, Virginie Ledoyen, Danielle Darrieux, Ludivine Sagnier and Firmine Richard.
Paramount Classics' PG rated German romantic comedy Mostly Martha went wider in its seventh week with a weak ESTIMATED $0.3 million at 143 theaters (+12 theaters; $2,225 per theater). Its cume is approximately $2.6 million.
Written and directed by Sandra Nettelbeck, it stars Martina Gedeck.
WEEKEND COMPARISONS
Key films -- those grossing more than $500,000 -- took in approximately $99.01 million for the weekend, up about 43.12 percent from last year when they totaled $69.18 million.
Key films were up about 33.6 percent from the previous weekend this year when they totaled $74.11 million.
Last year, Fox's opening week of Don't Say A Word was first with $17.09 million at 2,802 theaters ($6,099 per theater); and Paramount's opening week of Zoolander was second with $15.53 million at 2,507 theaters ($6,193 per theater). The top two films one year ago grossed $32.6 million. This year, the top two films grossed an ESTIMATED $52.6 million.

None of this weekend's four wide openings cut short Barbershop's first place reign, leaving it atop the chart with $13.3 million.
The Banger Sisters opened with a bang in second place with $10.3 million.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding was a fat third with $10 million and a $124 million cume heading for $150 million.
Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever >and The Four Feathers opened in a fourth place tie with a featherweight $7.1 million each.
Trapped, the weekend's other wide opening, placed tenth with a subdued $3.2 million.
Even with no huge openings, key films soared 41.5 percent over last year -- $75 million versus $53 million. The comparison is misleading, however, since ticket sales a year earlier were depressed in the wake of 9/11.
THE TOP TEN
MGM's PG-13 rated urban appeal comedy Barbershop held on to the top spot in its second week with a solid ESTIMATED $13.3 million (-36%) at 1,894 theaters (+289 theaters; $7,022 per theater). Its cume is approximately $38.9 million.
Directed by Tim Story, it stars Ice Cube, Anthony Anderson, Sean Patrick Thomas, Eve and Cedric The Entertainer.
Barbershop's average per theater was the highest for any film playing in wide release this weekend.
Focusing on the low budget Barbershop's good hold, a competing studio marketing president said the picture is clearly attracting mainstream moviegoers as well as its urban core audience. "What that says to me," he observed, "is that it's crossing over to young males -- not African-Americans, but just young males. You can't hold like that without that."
Fox Searchlight Pictures' R rated low budget comedy The Banger Sisters opened in second place to a sexy ESTIMATED $10.3 million at 2,736 theaters ($3,763 per theater).
Written and directed by Bob Dolman, it stars Goldie Hawn, Susan Sarandon and Geoffrey Rush.
"We're very, very pleased," Fox Searchlight distribution president Stephen Gilula said Sunday morning.
"Essentially, we more than grossed our production budget on opening weekend. For a film that's had a pretty narrow but very targeted audience to end up number two for the weekend, we're just thrilled."
Banger's launch, Gilula added, "is also a record for Searchlight. It's the biggest opening in Searchlight history. (The previous biggest) was a week ago with the $8 million for One Hour Photo. So two weeks in a row we set and broke our own records."
Asked if Searchlight will go any wider with Banger, Gilula replied, "I think we're as wide as we need to be. In fact, that's wider than we had intended. But the demand for the film was so high after we screened it for exhibitors that we went up to 2,700 (plus theaters).
"Originally, we thought we'd be in 2,300 to 2,500. But partly because (there are so) few films in the marketplace toward the end of the summer we had a lot of demand, so we went up that high. So we won't be adding theaters."
IFC Films' release of Gold Circle Films and HBO's PG rated romantic comedy blockbuster My Big Fat Greek Wedding was a close third, down one peg in its 23rd week with a still enviable ESTIMATED $10.01 million (-7%) at 1,853 theaters (+89 theaters; $4,501 per theater). Its cume is approximately $124.3 million, heading for $160 million in domestic theaters.
Wedding should break the $140.5 million record set by Artisan Entertainment's The Blair Witch Project as the domestic box office's biggest grossing independent film ever.
Directed by Joel Zwick, it stars Nia Vardalos and John Corbett.
Franchise Films' R rated action thriller Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever arrived via Warner Bros. in a fourth place tie with a soft ESTIMATED $7.11 million at 2,705 theaters ($2,628 per theater).
Ballistic, whose roots are in a popular video game, reportedly had a production budget of about $70 million.
Directed by Kaos and produced by Elie Samaha, Chris Lee and Kaos, it stars Antonio Banderas and Lucy Liu.
Paramount and Miramax's PG-13 rated very expensive romantic epic The Four Feathers opened in a tie for fourth place with an uneventful ESTIMATED $7.1 million at 1,912 theaters ($3,713 per theater).
Directed by Shekhar Kapur, it stars Heath Ledger, Wes Bentley and Kate Hudson.
"It's disappointing, but I just got the exit polls and it played pretty well," Paramount distribution president Wayne Lewellen said Sunday morning. "The top two boxes are 74 percent excellent and very good and 22 percent are good. So it's all positive. There is virtually no fair or poor."
The exits indicate, Lewellen added, the audience opening weekend was "roughly 50-50 male-female. The audience was a little over 70 percent over-25, so it's definitely an older audience. Women scored it higher than men in their definite recommends. Any time you've got a film that appeals to an older audience, it's tough to get them out there quickly."
Paramount will add about 300 more theaters in smaller markets to Feathers' run this week as a second wave that it hopes will benefit from favorable word of mouth spreading.
Fox Searchlight Pictures' R rated low budget thriller One Hour Photo slid three clicks to sixth place in its fifth week, still in the picture with an okay ESTIMATED $4.73 million (-41%) at 1,332 theaters (+120 theaters; $3,547 per theater). Its cume is approximately $21.8 million.
Written and directed by Mark Romanek, it stars Robin Williams.
"One Hour Photo had a fabulous fifth week," Fox Searchlight's Stephen Gilula said. "This is just terrific. With four new movies coming into the marketplace in our fifth week, it's an excellent hold. In particular, for the screen average to be holding this high in the fifth week is terrific. We think we're going to get to $30 million or better for this film, which is tremendous. This (had a budget) of around $12 million, so this is a tremendous success for us.
"If it gets to $30 million, it (will become) the second biggest film in the U.S. for Searchlight since The Full Monty, so we're thrilled with that. Full Monty did $45 million."
Gilula also pointed out that Searchlight has The Good Girl in the marketplace, which has a cume of $12.8 million in its seventh week. "What's interesting is that on the three films (Banger, Photo and Girl) we had a total of 4,600 theaters across the country playing our movies this weekend, which is also a Searchlight record."
Buena Vista/Touchstone's PG-13 rated supernatural thriller blockbuster Signs, which was sixth last weekend, tied for seventh place in its eighth week with a calm ESTIMATED $3.5 million (-34%) at 2,338 theaters (-713 theaters; $1,497 per theater). Its cume is approximately $218.0 million, heading for $225 million.
Directed by M. Night Shyamalan, it stars Mel Gibson.
Revolution Studios and Columbia's low budget PG-13 teen comedy Stealing Harvard, which was fifth last week, tied for seventh place in its second week with a slow ESTIMATED $3.5 million (-42%) at 2,366 theaters (theater count unchanged; $1,479 per theater). Its cume is approximately $10.8 million.
Directed by Bruce McCulloch, it stars Tom Green and Jason Lee.
20th Century Fox's PG-13 thriller Swimfan, which was fourth last week, was a very close ninth in its third week with an ESTIMATED $3.45 million (-43%) at 2,573 theaters (-287 theaters; $1,341 per theater). Its cume is approximately $24.4 million.
Directed by John Polson, it stars Jesse Bradford, Erika Christensen and Shiri Appleby.
Rounding out the Top Ten was the opening of Senator Entertainment's R rated child kidnapping thriller Trapped via Columbia with a not so thrilling ESTIMATED $3.2 million at 2,227 theaters ($1,437 per theater).
Directed by Luis Mandoki, it stars Charlize Theron, Courtney Love, Stuart Townsend and Kevin Bacon.
"This was a domestic pick up. It was a film financed by Senator and we acquired domestic (rights) for a little less than $10 million," Sony Pictures Entertainment worldwide marketing &amp; distribution president Jeff Blake said Sunday morning.
"So while we're certainly disappointed in the results, it's certainly not a high exposure picture for us."
OTHER OPENINGS
This weekend also saw the arrival of Buena Vista/ Disney's PG rated animated feature Spirited Away to a high spirited ESTIMATED $0.45 million at 26 theaters ($17,313 per theater).
Directed by Hayao Miyazaki, it was the Golden Bear best picture winner at the Berlin International Film Festival. Spirited is the all-time top grossing film at the Japanese box office.
Lions Gate Films' R rated kinky romance Secretary opened to a slap happy ESTIMATED $0.19 million at 11 theaters ($17,273 per theater).
Directed by Steven Shainberg, it stars James Spader and Maggie Gyllenhaal.
"We open an additional 10 markets next week with more expansions on Oct. 4 and 11 coming up," Lions Gate president Tom Ortenberg said Sunday morning.
"I think it went great. We had sell-outs on both coasts. Our grosses were only held down by the number of seats. There seems to be great demand for it. The movie seems really well positioned. It got really well reviewed and people seem to be talking about it. So we're thrilled."
Focus Features' R rated French comedic whodunit 8 Women arrived to a glamorous ESTIMATED $87,000 at 7 theaters ($10,926 per theater).
Directed by Francois Ozon, it stars Catherine Deneuve, Isabelle Huppert, Emmanuelle Beart, Fanny Ardant, Virginie Ledoyen, Danielle Darrieux, Ludivine Sagnier and Firmine Richard.
SNEAK PREVIEWS
There were no national sneak previews this weekend.
EXPANSIONS
On the expansion front this weekend United Artists' R rated dark comedy Igby Goes Down widened in its second week with an upbeat ESTIMATED $0.84 million at 102 theaters (+92 theaters; $8,212 per theater). Its cume is approximately $1.3 million.
Written and directed by Burr Steers, it stars Kieran Culkin, Claire Danes, Jeff Goldblum, Jared Harris, Amanda Peet, Ryan Phillippe, Bill Pullman and Susan Sarandon.
Paramount Classics' PG rated German romantic comedy Mostly Martha went wider in its sixth week with a dull ESTIMATED $0.3 million (-12%) at 131 theaters (+30 theaters; $2,555 per theater). Its cume is approximately $2.2 million.
Written and directed by Sandra Nettelbeck, it stars Martina Gedeck.
WEEKEND COMPARISONS
Key films -- those grossing more than $500,000 -- took in approximately $75.05 million for the weekend, up about 41.54 percent from last year when in the wake of 9/11 they totaled a depressed $53.02 million.
Key films were down about 3.47 percent from the previous weekend this year when they totaled $77.74 million.
Last year, Paramount's second week of Hardball was first with $8.06 million at 2,210 theaters ($3,646 per theater); and Dimension's opening week of The Others was second with $5.08 million at 2,801 theaters ($1,815 per theater). The top two films one year ago grossed $13.2 million. This year, the top two films grossed an ESTIMATED $23.6 million.