There is a necessary and great difference between lives sacrificed to secure quantifiable and enduring gain, and lives simply wasted, thrown away, without plan or purpose, to sheer strategic or tactical stupidity.

No 'solution' has any relevance whatsoever without a clear detailing of the resource configuration and the objective context within which it is to be applied. Yet, virtually the entire counter-insurgency (CI) discourse in India has remained doctrinaire, with almost no reference to the nuts and bolts of what is available, a coherent strategy into which these capacities are woven, and how this is to be implemented.

On March 21, 2020, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres ambushed a Police partyin the dense forests of Elmaguda close to Kasalpad and Minpa villages in the Chintagufa area in the Sukma District of Chhattisgarh, killing 17 security personnel [12 District Reserve Guards, DRG, and five Special Task Force, STF], and injuring another 15. The Maoists also looted at least 15 weapons from the possession of the slain personnel – 12 AK 47 assault rifles, one Under Barrel Grenade Launcher (UBGL), one INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifle and one Excalibur, the upgraded variant of the INSAS rifle.

Though the Police claimed that a considerable number of Maoists are believed to have been killed in the encounter, only one body of a Maoist cadre has been recovered during search operations in the area.

Chhattisgarh Director General of Police (DGP), D.M. Awasthi, disclosed that a joint team of DRG, STF, and the Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA), a specialised unit of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) proficient in guerrilla tactics and jungle warfare, had launched an operation from Chintagufa, Burkapal and Timelwada camps, based on information about the presence of ultras near Elmagunda. Intelligence inputs indicated a substantial “Maoist presence in the area". The operation failed to track down the Maoists. However, the rebels triggered Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) and opened fire at the returning SFs, leading to an exchange of fire, in which the SF casualties occurred.

An unnamed senior intelligence official, disclosed;

They (Naxals) have been re-grouping for a long time now under Basavaraj, who is highly trained in guerrilla warfare and improvised explosive device (IEDs) and ambushes. We acted well on time, but our men were highly outnumbered with 300-350 Naxals being involved in the ambush.

Further, a senior official of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on condition of anonymity, stated;

During this period, Naxalites usually launch their tactical counter offensive campaign, wherein they conduct the maximum strikes. The months prior to that, from the onset of the monsoons, they had been recruiting more people who were trained between June and September 2019.

Unsurprisingly, routine condemnations followed:

Strongly condemn the Maoist attack in Sukma, Chhattisgarh. My tributes to the security personnel martyred in the attack. Their valour will never be forgotten. Condolences to the bereaved families. I pray for a quick recovery of those injured. - Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) March 22, 2020.

In the annals of Left Wing Extremism (LWE) and major LWE attacks in Chhattisgarh, the debacle at Chintalnad, nor far from the location of the present attack, on April 6, 2010, [75 dead of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and one State Policeman] had demonstrated the primordial brutality of war – of cunning, deceit, possibly betrayal, but also of tactical superiority. Since then, despite the “efficient strategy in place” and the massive and largely successful anti-Maoist operations, SFs in Chhattisgarh have come under repeated and major Maoist attacks (each involving three or more casualties). According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 119 major attacks, resulting in 856 fatalities – 136 civilians, 383 SF personnel, and 337 Maoists – have been recorded since April 6, 2010, in Chhattisgarh (data till March 22, 2020). Significantly, the number stands at 315 such incidents, resulting in 2,028 fatalities (492 civilians, 624 SF personnel, 897 Maoists, and 15 unspecified) across the country, over the same period.

The Bastar Division the core of the residual Maoist problem not only in Chhattisgarh but in the entire so-called ‘Red Corridor’ region, comprises seven densely forested Districts sprawling across 40,000 square kilometers, including Sukma, the location of the current attack. The other six Districts – Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, and Narayanpur – in the southernmost region of the State, along with Sukma, share their borders with other Maoist-afflicted States, including Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and Telangana.

According to the SATP database, Sukma has accounted for at least 25 Maoist-related deaths (three civilians, 19 SF personnel, three Maoists) during the current year so far (data till March 22, 2020). Out of the six Districts in Chhattisgarh from where Maoist-linked fatalities have been reported in 2020, Sukma recorded the highest number of killings, at 25. Bijapur District is second, with six fatalities (one civilian, three troopers, two Maoists); followed by Dantewada, three (two civilians, one Maoist); two fatalities each in Bastar (two SF personnel) and Narayanpur (one civilian, one Maoist); and one fatality (civilian) in Kanker. Significantly, since January 16, 2012, the day Sukma was carved out of Dantewada as a separate District, a total of 420 fatalities (including 97 civilians, 160 SF personnel, 163 Maoists) have been recorded in the District.

According to a February 19, 2020, report, as many as 38 Maoist leaders and top functionaries of CPI-Maoist and its frontal organisations, with bounties worth over INR 140 million, are on Chhattisgarh’s most-wanted list. Of these 38, 21 are office bearers and members of the CPI-Maoist ‘politburo’, the outfit’s highest decision-making body and ‘central committee (CC)’, the second highest rung in the hierarchy. The remaining 17 are members and managers of the organisation’s Dandakaranya Zonal Special Committee (DKZSC) and its State-level frontal bodies, mainly active in Naxal-hit areas of the State, which has an approximately 32 per cent tribal population. Interestingly, according to two unnamed senior Police and intelligence officials in the State, these wanted Maoists are still supervising activities in the 13 Naxal-hit Districts of the State, as well as in other affected States, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha.

Further, a January 29, 2020, report, revealed that the Maoists had reinstated the CC of the CPI-Maoist, with 21 members, 10 of whom are from Telangana, four from Jharkhand, two each from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal, and one from Bihar. Nambala Keshava Rao aka Basava Raju (65), hailing from Srikakulam, was elected ‘general secretary’ of the CC. Rao is also the ‘politburo’ and ‘Central Military Commission, CMC’ member, and the current ‘chief’ of CPI-Maoist. He took over the reins of the Maoist party two years ago from Muppala Lakshmana Rao aka Ganapathi.

The Maoists are choosing to orchestrate tactical attacks in their campaign to engineer a potential resurrection. Despite decades of fighting the Maoists, SFs remain vulnerable to surprise attacks, as well as the elaborate traps the Maoists lay out, as in the case of the March 21, 2020, incident. The rebels are fighting a battle for their very existence now, and such major incidents are a necessary element of their strategy for revival. The most extraordinary care will be necessary on the part of the SFs to ensure that their losses are minimized, even as the operational initiative remains on the side of the State’s Forces.

Nasir Aziz Khan, an activist from Pakistan administered Kashmir (PaK), speaking at the 43rd Session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), Geneva, on March 10, 2020, raised deep concern over "growing human rights violations taking place in PoK [PaK] and Gilgit Baltistan". He stated that "peaceful political activists and members of civil society have become targets of state infrastructure". He urged the UNHRC to ask,

Pakistan to release all peaceful political prisoners including Baba Jan and Iftikhar Hussain and their colleagues who were trailed under Anti-terrorist act and facing 40 to 80 years imprisonment.

Baba Jan is one of the most popular leaders in the region, who is serving a life sentence in prison for his alleged rolein inciting violence in the region in 2010.

Khan also stressed that "terrorists' network and infrastructure are very much intact in these areas". Though he did not specify the groups, he added that "leaders of banned terrorist organizations are roaming freely".

Pakistan has at least 81 banned terror formations and several of them operate out of and in the PaK region. Sunni extremist outfits such as Ahl-e-Sunnat-wal-Jamaat (ASWJ), the front organisation of the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) have a strong presence in Gilgit Baltistan in particular. Way back in 2013, reports had confirmed that, as in the neighbouring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) had opened a new front in Gilgit Baltistan, and their terrorists were operating in the region. As SAIR had noted earlier Islamabad has turned PaK - including both 'Azad Kashmir' and Gilgit Baltistan - into a hub of Islamist extremism and terrorism since the 1990s. Militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and many others have been facilitated to create bases and training camps in the region.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Gilgit Baltistan has accounted for at least 170 terrorism-related fatalities (104 civilians, 26 SF personnel, 26 terrorists, and 14 Not Specified) in 57 incidents of killing since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data (data till March 22, 2020). The worst of these incidents took place on June 23, 2013, when TTP militants attacked a base camp of the Nanga Parbat mountain in the Bonar area of Diamer District in Gilgit Baltistan, and killed 10 foreign tourists-cum-mountaineers. One Pakistani woman guide was also killed in the incident.

Meanwhile, speaking at the 43rd Session of the UNHRC, Senge H. Sering, Director of the Institute for Gilgit Baltistan Studies, Washington, demanded from Pakistan "to release political prisoners including dozens serving life-term". Sering further demanded,

I remind Pakistan and China about their commitment to promotion and protection of human rights including accountability for violations and request both to cooperate fully with the Council when dealing with disputed territories like Gilgit-Baltistan. This includes complete withdrawal from the territory to enable genuine stakeholders to solve the chronic political impasse.

He also urged Islamabad to refrain from declaring locals' terrorists for demanding self-rule and share in China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The statement of these two activists describe the factual position of the unending sufferings of the people of the region.

Instead of dealing with all these concerns, Pakistan is in more of a hurry to further change the constitutional status of the region to tighten Islamabad's vice grip. The region has always been under illegal occupation and direct control of the powers that be in Islamabad, though some nominal autonomy was provided at the local level in 2009, with the Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance Order 2009. The steps taken in 2018 and thereafter, however, are intended to destroy that notional autonomy as well.

According to reports, the Government is trying to bring the Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance Order 2020. Though the details were not made available, reports indicate that, through this order, the Government is attempting to undermine the Self-Governance order in violation of the Supreme Court (SC) ruling of January 17, 2019.

It is useful to recall that the then Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi on May 21, 2018, had promulgated the Gilgit-Baltistan Order 2018, with the ostensible aim to provide the "same rights enjoyed by the other citizens of Pakistan to people of Gilgit-Baltistan." The real aim was, in fact, to 'incorporate' Gilgit-Baltistan as the 'fifth province' of Pakistan, and to quell any voice of opposition to China's ambitious CPEC project. The people of Gilgit-Baltistan realized this at the very beginning and opposed the Order. Unsurprisingly, on June 20, 2018, the Supreme Appellate Court of Gilgit Baltistan, the highest court of the region, suspended the newly-promulgated Order.

The matter went to Pakistan's Supreme Court and, on August 8, 2018, the Court restored the Gilgit-Baltistan Order 2018, suspending the decision of the Supreme Appellate Court of Gilgit Baltistan. A three-member SC bench, headed by the then Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Mian Saqib Nisar heard the appeal and CJP Nisar observed, "The government needs to ensure that the people of GB have the same respect and rights as all others."

In view of the SC's emphasis on 'equal rights' to the people of GB, the Pakistan Government proposed Gilgit-Baltistan Governance Reforms 2019. Though the details of the Reforms 2019 were not publicly available, it was reported that some rights had been ceded to the people. On January 17, 2019, the SC ruled that the 'modified order' shall be forthwith promulgated by the President on the advice of the Federal Government, within a fortnight. As expected, the deadline was not met, and the Federal Government on May 13, 2019, sought time to implement the Gilgit-Baltistan Governance Reforms 2019. the application filed by Ministry of Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit and Baltistan stated, "Timeframe prescribed in the January 17, 2019, judgement may kindly be extended." The application observed, further,

Some discontentment expressed by the people and the Government of Gilgit-Baltistan were reported (sic). The people of Gilgit-Baltistan demanded that instead of governing Gilgit-Baltistan through Presidential Orders, the area should be governed through an Act of Parliament of Pakistan. The government of Gilgit-Baltistan also raised certain observations that their view points were not addressed… A meeting of the stakeholders was held in February [February 6, 2019] and the consensus was reached that the G-B Governance Reforms 2019 may be enacted through the Parliament of Pakistan as per aspiration of the People of G-B.

The hearing in the case, after a long delay, resumed on November 7, 2019. The SC declared that it had announced the verdict and the matter was now handed over to the Government.

Despite this, Islamabad has sought to bring the Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance Order 2020. Not surprisingly, on February 7, 2020, Gilgit-Baltistan rejected this Order and demanded that no change be brought about in the constitutional status of Gilgit Baltistan. Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly Speaker Fida Mohammad Nashad asserted that the SC order regarding the status of Gilgit-Baltistan should be implemented. Notably, in its January 17, 2019, order, the SC had categorically stated,

Nothing in the judgment shall be construed to limit the jurisdiction conferred on this Court by the Proposed Order itself and if the Order so promulgated is repealed or substituted by an Act of Parliament the validity thereof, if challenged, shall be examined on the touchstone of the Constitution."

Locals oppose unconstitutional land reforms and unconstitutional 2020 ordinance imposed by Pakistan as both rob locals of decision and their cultural identity while empowering Pakistani and Chinese citizens to abuse common property regime with impunity.

Crucially, there is enveloping backwardness in the region. Ashok K. Behuria, Surinder Kumar Sharma, and Yaqboo ul Hassan, in their Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: Politics, Parties and Personalities published in 2019, observe, "The Pakistan Government has not done much to improve the economic condition of the people of Gilgit-Baltistan which is considered as the most backward in South Asia." Behuria et al also note that there has been an increasing frequency of suicides in the region, adding that over 300 youths, both boys and girls, had committed suicide in Ghizer District alone since 2000. "One major reason for committing suicide is unemployment".

Unsurprisingly, the region has witnessed several anti-Government protests. But these have not been effective, as Islamabad has deceitfully changed the demography of the region, settling people from other provinces who were supportive of Islamabad's agenda. The region, where the native language speaking Shias were an overwhelming majority, is now dominated by Urdu and Punjabi speaking Sunnis. Indeed, accusing Pakistan, of changing the demography of the region, Sering noted, "You will be surprised that while Pakistan is trying to be the attorney of Kashmiri people, it has changed the demography in a huge manner."

Though Islamabad has so far succeeded in quelling the protests, suppressing the genuine demands of the people in the region by deceit and force, popular resentment is building up, and will present a significant challenge to the Federal Government in the long run.

NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 16-22, 2020

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)

Chhattisgarh

0

17

2

19

INDIA (Total)

0

17

2

19

PAKISTAN

KP

2

4

7

13

PAKISTAN (Total)

2

4

7

13

Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.

AFGHANISTAN

Former President Hamid Karzai and Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf attempt mediation to resolve political stalemate: Former President Hamid Karzai and former mujahideen leader Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf have begun mediation efforts to solve the tensions between President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. Sayyaf's 'spokesman' Massoud Tarishtwal said, "The agenda is focused on how to ensure the safety of Afghanistan and how to create an inclusive government, where all parties and all Afghan politicians can see themselves represented. Discussion has been held regarding this principle".Tolo News, March 21, 2020.

No decline in enemy attacks, says Acting Afghan MoD Assadullah Khalid: The Afghan acting Minister of Defense Assadullah Khalid on March 19 said that there has been no decline in offensives by the enemy (Taliban), adding that the Afghan Forces have been ordered to return to "active defense" position. "There has been no reduction in the attacks of the enemy, today we ordered our forces to return to active defense position from defensive position," said Assadullah Khalid. Tolo News, March 20, 2020.

Proposed list of Taliban prisoners is being assessed and that the inmates will be released gradually in installments, says Presidential Advisor Waheed Omer: Presidential Advisor Waheed Omer on March 16 said the proposed list of Taliban prisoners is being assessed and that the inmates will be released gradually in installments. But, he added, the release of prisoners will only happen if the intra-Afghan negotiations begin and a significant reduction in violence is observed. Omer also said that no Taliban prisoner would be released without a guarantee. Tolo News, March 17, 2020.

INDIA

UMHA approves for creation of 1,018 posts in CISF, according to report: The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) approved the creation of 899 posts in the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) and subsequently another 119 posts to augment its strength to effectively guard vital installations, including airports, atomic installations, metro networks, officials said on March 20. The CISF guards about 60 civil airports in the country and has an elite VVIP security wing under its command called the Special Security Group (SSG). Outlook India , March 21, 2020.

MoD signs deal with Israeli firm to procure 16,000 LMGs, according to report: Ministry of Defence (MoD) and IWI, an Israeli firm, on March 19, signed a contract for the supply of about 16,000 Light Machine Guns (LMG) for the Army. Under the deal, worth INR 850 crore, the LMG will be delivered in a year. This will replace the 5.56 INSAS light machine gun that is now two decades old. The Army has already received the American Sig Sauer assault rifles and the Caracal close quarter battle (CQB) carbines made in the UAE, but there were delays in getting the LMG. Times Now News, March 20, 2020.

Role of NGOs from Pakistan, Malaysia, India in Delhi riots under scanner, says report: The role of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) has come under the scanner of the agencies, who are probing the Delhi riots. An Intelligence Bureau (IB) official said that the NGOs from Malaysia and Pakistan worked closely with those with India to spread a toxic propaganda. Money was pumped in and social media handles were activated for this toxic spread. In Pakistan the charity wing of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) played a crucial role in sending in the money.Defence Aviation Post, March 19, 2020.

NEPAL

Bill to amend transitional justice Act is ready to be tabled in Parliament, says NCP leader Subash Nembang: Subash Nembang, Deputy Parliamentary Party leader of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP), who leads the drafting team said that a bill to amend the controversial Enforced Disappeared Enquiry and the Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act, 2014 is ready to be tabled in Parliament. "The bill has been drafted taking into consideration the spirit of the relevant Supreme Court ruling, international practices and feedback from conflict victims. The amendment bill is now ready. It shouldn't take more than a week for it to be tabled in Parliament," said Nembang. Kathmandu Post, March 20, 2020.

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.