Morgan Stanley's top auto analyst thinks Tesla's next big launches could be flops

This time, the super-bullish analyst is concerned that delays in
launching the Model X and the Model 3 will cause fewer cars to be
produced.

"We are lowering our price target by 26% to reflect our lowered
volume expectations for Model X and Model 3, a lower valuation
for Tesla Energy, and accelerating competition in the mobility
business," Jonas wrote in a note Monday.

Jonas cut his price target on the stock to $333 a share from
$450.

On Monday morning, Tesla shares were trading at about $195.

Jonas says Tesla's move to delay the Model X launch by a year
because of manufacturing challenges means the company may have
incurred extra costs running into the hundreds of millions of
dollars.

When Jonas
last lowered his price target, back in October, he argued
that the Model X price tag (about $80,000) was too hefty and that
the company may struggle to meet Wall Street's volume
expectations.

In Monday's note, Jonas worries that the Model 3 launch will
be pushed back a year from Tesla's expected release in late 2018
since the company has diverted resources to focus on the Model X.

And in the interim, some customers may have lost interest.

Over the weekend, Business Insider's Matthew DeBord
argued that the scheduled unveiling of the $35,000 Model
3 this March represented the most critical moment in Tesla's
history. DeBord suggested the Model 3 could form a starting
point from which a family of vehicles could later be developed, a
move that would bear a resemblance to traditional carmakers.

Jonas wrote that low global demand for electric cars and
crude-oil prices near $30 (which have lowered gasoline prices)
meant Tesla would produce fewer Model 3 units than anticipated.
He has a target for 500,000 units by the end of 2020.

Jonas is still "Overweight" the stock, however, with a price
target of $333 suggesting that he sees the stock rallying by as
much as 75% over the next year.

But as Jonas writes, Tesla has a long way to go: "In our view,
while Tesla may be the best-positioned original-equipment
manufacturer under our coverage for auto 2.0, we see its current
business model as not yet truly disruptive to the automotive
industry."