In the immediate aftermath, by agreeing to buy Euro 60 billion worth of public and private securities on a monthly basis until September 2016, under its recently launched quantitative easing ( QE ) program, the European central bank (ECB) has quite clearly distorted the market. Also the initiative has given once in a life time type opportunity to Euro area countries to get their fiscal house in order by borrowing for longer duration and at a record low cost without being able to provide or required to provide any fundamental justification to the market. And also by showing a willingness to buy European governments debt as low as minus 20 basis points, the ECB is probably attempting to harmonise the cost of borrowing of the EU states. So as a consequence, we are now living in a reality, where Portuguese and Spanish 10 years sovereign bond has a lower yield than a U.S. Treasury of the same duration.

While the benefits of the QE to the European governments can’t be understated, European financial institutions from the likes of an insurance companies or a pension fund etc, who rely on investment returns to keep their business model sustainable will most likely have to reassess, or redesign their investment model factoring the new reality of low and negative yielding sovereign debt.

The ECB is clearly aiming to push investors out of what is considered safe haven assets, but investors could also opt to very well sell the Euro denominated European sovereign bonds, and instead buy US treasuries as ECB has very limited control over how investors will allocate capital, and the overall directional flow of the capital. Non European companies with stronger balance sheet could also benefit immensely by borrowing at very low rates in Euros, and there are ample evidence of that happening already as more and more companies flock to Euro to raise capital. So there remains an inherent risk with the approach, and capital will likely flow into various asset class outside of the Euro area.

Also in the last couple of years, a sizeable portion of the profits made by euro area based banks came from their sovereign debt holdings, and in the current environment, it will be interesting to see what sort of impact the change in dynamics will have on banks profitability. Although the banks are comparatively in a much better shape than few years ago, they are still struggling to make good money from their traditional day-to-day business.

Going forward, the QE initiative of European Central Bank (ECB) should improve the overall economic dynamics of the Euro Zone, and the signs are that it is in some way or the other heading in that direction. But a QE coupled with ultra low interest rate environment over a longer than desired period isn’t all NET positive for the general well-being of the economy. A sustained ultra low interest rate environment over a long period of time can cause misallocation of capital, mis-pricing of risks, and can also easily become addictive without really creating a big jump in the overall economic activity of the real economy. And here is an interesting data that I believe provides an interesting perspective. Based on various reliable estimates, Japanese savers have over US$ 7.1 trillion stashed in cash, and roughly around US $ 300 billion of cash is believed to be literally stashed under the carpet across Japanese households creating a situation where excessive savings is not being utilised by the real economy as average household aren’t able to get the return they would expect from traditional channels of investments.

There are still a large number of savers who believe in the good old savings model, where a bank provides an attractive return to its clients on deposits. Also more than half of the population of the developed as well as developing world does not actively invests on a regular basis in stocks or bonds so therefore they are unable to reap the benefits of a record high stock market. And their savings get eroded over time through low to almost negligible return on their deposits while a small percentage of sophisticated institutional investors make good money from record high stock markets mostly driven by the easy QE money, which distorts the connection between the financial markets and the real economy.

And even in an economy where a large percentage of the savings comes from the higher valuation of the house prices, if through traditional channels, a saver is not getting decent enough return from the banks, the overall confidence in the economy suffers, and it is one of the reason why the economic data remains somewhat confusion creating volatility in the financial markets.

There are limitations to what a central bank and monetary policy can deliver or achieve on their own without a sound business and investment friendly economic environment. And this is where Europe continues to struggle. Euro zone economy is showing some signs of improvement but it still has a long away to go.

A Europe where an entrepreneur as a value creator with credible ideas or project is able to access right capital and start the journey without getting stuck in bureaucratic red tape is still a bit far from becoming a reality. In general, the market is turning optimistic on Europe’s prospect, but the EU leaders as well as the bureaucrats will need to be focused on delivering the essential reforms in order to make sure Euro Zone as an economic growth engine starts to fire, to ensure it stays relevant and competes better. So the European policy makers will need to keep their mind on the market while charting a better way forward for Europe.

The recent movements in the markets and its overall behaviour is starting to indicate that the game is changing and has already changed somewhat, and the market participants are having to adapt to these changes rather quickly. And here is an example, so when my GrandMa suggested that never mind the good old correlation theory, the markets overall behaviour today has changed so we could very well see the stock going higher while the crude oil could go as low as 70 or even lower,some folks in the market thought, it hasn’t happened before, and probably won’t now because crude and stock pricing have had historical correlation. And that’s a very understandable observation. But in the past month, the stocks have clearly been on an upward trajectory while the crude has continued to be on a downward trend. And by relying on the old economic theory as a reference, some may argue that one of these stories might be not be true, but I would disagree with that old economic assumption that one of these stories must be lying. Not at all, it’s just that people have evolved, and some of the old rules don’t work that well in the markets today. And here is an attempt to explain both the stories.

The stocks have been supported by a number of factors. For example, the European Central Bank ( ECB ) has just started its quantitative easing ( QE ) program, and the Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) as well as the Bank of England (BOE) are still maintaining the level of their QE program, also there are no real indication that the FED or any another central bank for that matter in the developed world is going to start raising rates around Q1 of 2015, it’s simply too risky. And although at some point, the FED and BOE might have to raise rates in 2015 , the central banks in China and India will most likely be lowering their rates, and PBOC ( the Chinese Central bank ) has already started the process so clearly the game is being played differently around different parts of the world today.

And with regards to the downward trajectory of the current crude pricing, it isn’t all a reflection of a seriously deteriorating global macro economic condition. In fact the recent policy easing in China as well as the Euro 315 billion investment & growth plan announced by the European Union along with the quantitative easing (QE) plan of the European Central Bank is all aimed at creating growth so the under normal circumstances, the markets should push the crude prices up but the underlying reasons for a falling crude isn’t all based on global macro issues. There are number of other factors at play, and one of them is that the US marching on to becoming a net exporter of energy, and OPEC mainly lead by Saudis are trying their best to maintain their position in the game by making the shale gas business unsustainable. It’s hard to project, if OPEC and the Saudis will eventually succeed but the game has obviously changed, and the old rules don’t really apply.

The other interesting thing happening today is the positive momentum build up over India. And if India is able to find a way to unleash its potential then quite frankly, the global economy will be better for it. But the Indian economy has to deal with a series structural issues, and inflation being one of them.I believe, the current RBI governor needs to sit down with the government, and help device a plan to carry out wholesale structural reforms in the economy. Monetary policy has its limitations, just look across the world, the central bankers aren’t really able to get a good handle on inflation anymore because as stated before, the game has changed. And we need to look at the bigger context when talking about inflation today.

For example, the financial assets in the U.S. as well as other developed markets got highly inflated, but without a real increase in disposable income, there is simply no capacity in the real economy to drive up inflation in the developed world. And specifically in context of India, India’s inflation is hard wired into how the country’s economy is structured, and unless the economy is unclogged, taming the inflation isn’t going to work. So practically, it’s almost impossible for India to export its inflation overseas, a process through which the developed world including of the U.S. was able to to export its inflation to an economy like China while continuing to grow and keep a relatively high living standard. The RBI governor has done an extremely good job so far, and I believe , he along with other central bankers know the limitations of monetary policy tools. Also Indian economy isn’t efficient enough structurally to quickly respond to policy changes, and this is thanks to the old ways of doing things. So an incremental reform agenda aimed at unclogging the engine has to be at the forefront. Inflation will tame down going forward with the structural reforms in the economy and also the existing lower fuel prices etc, but without carrying out a thorough structural reform, any slow down in inflation can’t be sustained. I believe, the current governor of the RBI shouldn’t hesitate to use inflation as a leverage to keep the pressure on the finance minister to keep the reform agenda at forefront. And in Mr Rajan as the governor of India’s central bank, India has found a central banker who has a global reputation, also a central banker who isn’t shy of a debate. And this is why he gets respect in the market.

Overall, it looks like India is heading in the right direction. A country like India needed a strong government, and most importantly a strong leader. And on both these counts, the people of India have delivered, but India is a federal structure so if the states don’t participate in the growth and prosperity agenda of the federal government then it will be a struggle for the central leadership on their own to take the country forward. There is an overall positive sentiment around India today, and the country does have an immense potential. And the way, I would describe India’s potential is, if for example, the economic model followed by China has helped it create a Boeing 777 then India today has the chance to create Boeing a 777 X series plane, an upgraded version that will be largest and most efficient twine engine plane in the world, but for this to happen a lot has to go right for India.

Progress and reform has to be incremental, and also gradual. A steady take off requires the pilot to guide the plane making sure the climb is comfortable, and will not put the passengers as well as the plane at risk. And once the plane is flying at the desired altitude, a seasoned pilot as well as a passenger know that there will always be turbulence on the way. So the approach by the INDIAN leadership shouldn’t be based around trying to blast off the country into outer space by carrying out one time wholesale Big Bang reforms. No progress or reform is permanent so the leadership and the policymakers should factor in a period of consolidation in the economy, and be always prepared to carry out the next set of reforms.

Also any well thought policy reform will fail to deliver the desired result, if the policy delivery mechanism isn’t fit for purpose. The current economic infrastructure of the economy is old and too clogged up so the focus of the government should be to take immediate measures to unclog the system, and then the growth will start to trickle through. The road ahead won’t be a smooth ride but the focus should be on unclogging the system and changing the current administrative policy delivering mechanism set up in the country. Also, the rural India will need to be fully plugged into the overall progress agenda. This will create,and is already creating tremendous opportunities for entrepreneurs who are able to spot them. The strategy has to be tailored to make sure all parts of the economy is starting to perform efficiently, and won’t burden the ascend of the overall economy going forward.

Also most importantly a ” progress for all ” idea has to be sold to the entire nation, and by trying to make this into a national movement, the current PM of India is heading in the right direction. However, the people of the country will need to be willing participants by making their own contributions. So the leadership of the country should aim to pitch India as a potential B777 X, the latest and more powerful as well as more efficient version of the existing B777, and India can be that.

The government will need to discover an economic growth model that is sustainable over a long term period and also inclusive. Adopting and following an existing growth model will not work for a country like India, and this is why I always struggle to understand the idea proposed by some in the market that all emerging economies should follow the economic growth model of China as an example for their country without really understanding if that specific economic model is going to be sustainable for their respective economies.

China’s heavy reliance on investments to drive it’s GDP has created a massive over supply, and there are large amount of infrastructure assets that are simply sitting idle without creating any return for the tax payers so if we were to look in terms of return on investment basis then the picture is quite murky. In short they would fall under inefficient investments category, and we are talking about trillions of dollars worth of such investments here. And this is one of the reason why the leadership of China based companies are looking to invest overseas, and it makes good business sense because the companies in China do have tremendous experience in building substantial infrastructure assets.

So going forward, the state owned enterprise in China will look to invest overseas as there isn’t much to do at home, and in a way, this strategy works out well because the emerging economies that have massive infrastructure deficit might find that China based companies are more willing and flexible to help them develop and finance those projects than others. And as Europe and the U.S. gets more competitive, the foreign players currently operating in China will start to move their production facility closer to home, and it’s already happening as the cost of production is starting to get lower than that in China. The economic engine of China is going through a gear change, and the leadership will need to make sure the transition is well managed. And as the game continues to change, companies operating in the real economy will face different type of challenges but at the same time there will be many opportunities, and that’s just a natural process, the powerhouse of yesteryears will become irrelevant as the economy evolves.