Energy facts from oil to electricity

Climate Models and the Real World

The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) threat is based on computer models. It’s the temperature projections of computer models that are being used to predict catastrophic global warming and climate change.

Should we conclude that the AGW threat is bogus if the models are wrong?

Given the importance of the issue, it would seem to be essential to determine whether actual temperatures follow those predicted by the models. If actual temperatures aren’t following the models, what would it take to confirm or disprove that the models were an accurate representation of future temperatures?

This is what Bryan Leyland (Fellow of the Institution of Professional Engineers, New Zealand, one of many citations) postulated as he compared actual temperatures with those from the models.

As he explains at http://web.me.com/bryanleyland/Site_3/Climate_models.html the temperature disparity between what the models have predicted and the actual temperatures over the past several years is huge, and that it would require very large increases in temperatures between now and 2020, and even 2030, for actual temperatures to conform to the trends predicted by the models.

He shows that temperatures would have to increase by 0.7 degrees in 6 years or by 0.8 degrees in 9 years, for the trends between the models and actual temperatures to be equal. These equate to 12 or 9 degrees per century, which far exceeds anything that has happened over the last century.

While this doesn’t prove that the models are wrong, it does indicate that there is a very high probability that they are wrong.

Since the AGW threat is based on temperature trends predicted by models, it’s probably reasonable to assume that the AGW threat is bogus.

This should give pause to those who are demanding that we spend billions of dollars to cut CO2 emissions 80% in the U.S. by 2050 – a task that probably is impossible anyway. (See Be Passionate About Global Warming)

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