When we see records being broken and unprecedented events such as this, the onus is on those who deny any connection to climate change to prove their case. Global warming has fundamentally altered the background conditions that give rise to all weather. In the strictest sense, all weather is now connected to climate change. Kevin Trenberth

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by John Abraham, "Climate Consensus - the 97%," The Guardian, August 12, 2013

As humans put more and more heat-trapping gases into the
atmosphere, the Earth's climate changes; we all know that. Some of the
trickier questions are, how fast is it changing, what can we expect in
the future, what are the costs of slowing emissions (compared to the
costs of doing nothing), and what changes are we already observing that
give us such confidence in our predictions?Perhaps the poster child of climate change is in the Arctic,
where sea ice has been declining at an astonishing rate. Over the past
few decades, satellite information has been gathered which shows huge
declines in ice extent (the area covered by ice). The declines are
enough that it is possible that in a few years, there will be little or
no ice left in the Arctic at the end of the melt season.If the loss of ice area wasn't bad enough, the volume of ice has decreased faster than the area. By some measures, the volume of ice has decreased approximately 75% over the past 3 decades, since adequate records began to be kept.For climate nerds like me, internet bookmarks are essential for organizations like the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) or IARC-JAXA which provide updated and high-quality information about Arctic conditions.Summer Arctic ice extent, National Snow and Ice Data Center.

While these institutions gather and make available important Arctic
information, a wider community has taken a very active role in
interpreting the data. These "armchair" scientists play a particularly
important role in telling the rest of us what the data actually means
for our future.Perhaps the best example is the Arctic Sea Ice blog
which was started in 2010 by Neven, a 38-year-old freelance writer who
set up the blog to draw more attention to the Arctic and create a
central place for the exchange of information and ideas concerning
Arctic sea ice. He also set up the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website that is a collection of graphs, maps and other pieces of information regarding Arctic sea ice, and he formed a forum to allow community discussion.Neven,
like many other armchair scientists has little formal training. But,
he makes up for that with a doggedness that would impress anyone. While
he describes his blog as basically weather reports, many publishing
researchers turn to him for a comprehensive view of current conditions.
Do you want to know what the short term ice conditions will likely be?
Ask Neven. Interested in learning about impacts of current conditions
on the atmosphere? Ask Neven.Not only is he a great resource, but
the commenters provide insightful thoughts as well. And very often,
they are not in agreement with each other. It is refreshing to see
people engage in polite yet candid discussions of various views of our
Arctic.
Ice sheet melt pond – John Maurer NSIDC

So, what is the view of the current Arctic conditions? Well, let's hear from Neven himself.

"So far the 2013 melting season hasn't been as spectacular as 2012 because of a slow start
to the melting season, where a persistent cyclone kept the Arctic cold
and cloudy for several weeks in a row. Right now, it doesn't look like
the 2012 records will be broken, but there are a few known unknowns out
there that might change all that. For instance, a large patch of low
concentration ice near the North Pole.

Either way, we're going to
learn something from this melting season, like how important a fast/slow
start to the melting season can be in this new regime where most of the
ice pack consists of thin first-year ice. The weather used to be the
dominant factor in determining how low the minimum would turn out. It
still is dominant, but the thinning of the ice pack has reduced its
importance. In other words, ice thickness decides how dominant the
weather can be.

If it turns out that a slow start to the melting
season results in a recovery of sorts, and we have a couple of those in a
row (which I think is highly unlikely), we could return to the pre-2007
situation. But just one bad year would probably throw the ice pack back
to where we are now: a state where a fast start to the melting season,
and prevailing conditions that are conducive to melt lead to a virtually
ice-free Arctic in September.

I personally believe this could
happen before the decade is out, but it still depends on the
circumstances. We haven't reached the stage yet where an ice-free
September is a done deal. Things rarely are certain in the Arctic. There
even could be some unforeseen negative feedback kicking in and
(finally) slowing things down, but that's not something I would bet the
farm on.

What's important to remember, is that even if not
ice-free, the situation is already very, very bad, and it's not
unreasonable to think that we have started to experience the consequences
of the loss of Arctic sea ice so far. Organizations like Greenpeace
tell us that we need to save the Arctic. And even though the Arctic is
the most important place in the world right now (IMO), it's not about
saving the Arctic, it's about saving ourselves."