11/05/2012

Here's some election day info and resources that might be helpful tomorrow regarding the marriage measures in Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington. Thanks to Freedom to Marry for much of it.

Towleroad will be doing a liveblog starting at approximately 6:30 tomorrow night. Towleroad's former political director and current candidate for New York City Council Corey Johnson will be joining us.

PPP: Maine's referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a 52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote.

Polls open between 6 and 8 am and close at 10:00 (EST). Municipalities of less than 500 can open any time between 6 and 10am. Mainers should check with their local municipality to determine exactly when their polling location opens. No matter what though, all locations close at 8. Maine's Secretary of State has up to 20 days to verify election results, the governor has 10 days to do so, and then there is a 30 day wait period for the law to go into effect. The earliest possibility would be Dec. 7, 2012 (30 days after the election), the latest would be Jan. 6, 2013 (60 days after the election).

Goucher College: "Fifty-five percent of residents support allowing same-sex couples to marry legally in Maryland;39 percent oppose it. When asked their opinion on the effects that legalizing same-sex marriage would have on society in general, 64 percent indicate that it would have either '“no effect,' or itwould 'change society for the better.' Thirty-two percent say it will 'change society for theworse.'"

Polls open at 7am and close at 8pm (EST). IF passed, would take effect January 1, 2013.

Polling hours: Polls open between 7 and 8 am and close at 8pm. Smaller munipalities may not open until 10am. (CST)

If passed, when would the law take effect? N/A-- if the amendment passes, marriage will still be illegal in Minnesota.

NOTE: All abstaining votes on the constitutional amendment will count as “no” votes. For instance, if a voter casts their vote in the Presidential election but does not vote either way on the marriage amendment, their vote will count as a no. For a constitutional amendment to pass in Minnesota, it must receive more than 50% of all ballots cast in the election.

Most recent polling:

PPP: The more interesting findings on our final Minnesota poll deal with the state's high
profile amendments to ban gay marriage and require voter identification. We find both
narrowly trailing. 45% of voters say they'll vote for the gay marriage ban, compared to
52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say they'll support the voter ID amendment to 51%
who are opposed.

The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors
support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62
margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats
oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it
41/55.

Twitter for for Minnesotans United for all Families: @MN4AllFamiliesHashtags: #VoteNO; #MNUnited

WASHINGTON: Approve Referendum 74

Polling hours: Washington is a completely mail-in ballot state. All ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday 11/06.

Insight on how/when results will be reported: "As few as 40% and as much as 60% of the vote is expected to be tallied and announced. Most counties will release their initial vote totals in one batch on election night. It is very unlikely that the Referendum 74 outcome will be known on election night.

Leiter asserted that the “the Great Flood in the time of Noah was triggered by the recognition of same-gender marriages,” adding that there are similar “messages in this particular storm for us.” “The Lord will not bring another flood to destroy the entire world but He could punish particular areas with a flood, and if we look at the same-gender marriage recognition movement that’s occurring, that certainly is a message for us to learn,” he said. “We have to learn that the Lord does watch what we do and if we don’t shape up He will deliver divine justice.” Leiter also suggested that God flooded Lower Manhattan because it is “one of the national centers of homosexuality.”

Pataki called on fellow Republican Neil DiCarlo — who is running on the Conservative Party line for a state Senate seat from the Hudson Valley — to denounce the remarks of Rabbi Noson Leiter. DiCarlo opposes gay marriage, and the orthodox rabbi made the statements in support of his third-party candidacy.

“It’s simply incomprehensible that anyone could attribute the devastation and loss of life caused by Hurricane Sandy to divine retribution against the New York State legislature,” Pataki railed.

"The comments made by Rabbi Noson Leiter that sought to link the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy to our state's embrace of marriage equality are as offensive as they are ignorant. This catastrophic storm claimed the lives of more than forty New Yorkers. This kind of hateful rhetoric has no place in our public discourse, and is particularly distasteful in times of tragedy. Our state is proud to offer equal rights to all our citizens, and we will never tolerate the use of a tragedy like Hurricane Sandy to promote a divisive and bigoted agenda."

What does marriage equality mean to you? "Travis Mayfield joined The Commute with Carlson to discuss his marriage and why full marriage equality matters for his family. Travis, who is openly gay and in a committed domestic partnership, took calls from KVI listeners after John asked 'Should my friend Travis Mayfield be able to legally get married?'"

Kenya’s first openly gay candidate David Kuria Mbote discusses run for senate seat: “They call me the candidate with issues. They don’t say I’m gay, they say I have issues. At the beginning I was worried people would see me only as gay, but after 30 or so public meetings, people are willing to listen. Whether they vote for me is another story, but at least they are listening.”

Skyfallbreaks UK box office record:
"The latest James Bond film, Skyfall, is on course to be the series'
highest-grossing film so far after breaking the UK seven-day box-office
record and posting $287m (£180m) in its first 10 days across the globe."

Toddler fatally attacked by wild African dogs after falling into zoo enclosure in Pittsburgh."Lieutenant Kevin Kraus of the Pittsburgh police said the attack happened at about 11.45am local time on Sunday after the mother picked the child up and put him on top of a railing at the edge of a viewing deck. 'Almost immediately after that he lost his balance, fell down off the railing into the pit, and he was immediately attacked by 11 dogs,' Kraus said. 'It was very horrific.'"

Man mauled to death by captive grizzly bear in Montana. "The man was mauled by one or both of the captive-bred grizzly bears at the Animals of Montana facility north of Bozeman, Sheriff Brian Gootkin said."

NYC's flood map fails Bailey-Holt AIDS residence. "The residence director had left for the day, but came back when the flooding began. She had to wade through waist-deep water to get into the building. The water burst through an emergency exit flooding the ground floor administrative offices. It poured into and filled the basement. 'The river came rushing through,' Quattrochi said. 'She and some of the staff had to get down to get some of the important stuff up.' The power had already been cut so the 37 clients who were still in the residence and the half-dozen staff members were left without a functioning elevator and no working kitchen."

Frank Rich on the election, the Obama-Christie bromance, and Hurricane Sandy:" The contrast in this odd couple’s race and body types alone seemed liked a Hollywood casting director’s dream, and the ravaged seaside setting could not have been more romantic. These are just the kind of bipartisan tableaus that are said (by establishment pundits and the self-styled “centrists” of Morning Joe at least) to warm the hearts of independents. And even when Christie clarified on Sunday that he was still voting for Romney, he managed to turn it into another warm endorsement of Obama’s leadership."