Sources of Chinese Economic Growth, 1978-1996

Chris Bramall

Description

This analysis of the political economy of growth in the era of Deng Xiaoping takes issue with the growth-accounting methodologies and market-centred explanations which characterize so much of the literature on transition-era China. By adopting an approach which echoes the pioneering work of Chalmers Johnson, Alice Amsden, and Robert Wade on other East Asian Economies, and which makes full use of the rich statistical materials that have become available since 1978, this book shows that Chinese growth was driven by a combination of state-led industrial policy and the favourable infrastructural legacies of the Maoist era. And in giving due weight to the sheer complexity of the growth process by looking in detail at the experience of four very different Chinese regions, it avoids over-simplistic macroeconomic generalization.

Nevertheless, even this type of approach is inadequate, because it fails to explain why industrial policy has been so much more successful in China than in other countries. This book therefore goes beyond the 'development state' approach to argue that state autonomy in China reflected the remarkably equal distribution of income and wealth at the end of the 1970s and, paradoxically, the destruction of party structures and institutions during the Cultural Revolution.

The policy implications are stark. The Chinese experience demonstrates that industrial policy and state spending on physical and social infrastructure can produce rich rewards; conversely, slavish reliance on foreign direct investment and trade are likely to limit the pace of growth. But attempts to replicate China's success in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia will fail because their governments will not resist rent-seeking by classes and interest groups. Moreover, as the state becomes weaker in the wake of the re-emergence of a powerful capitalist class, even Chinese growth may prove unsustainable.

Sources of Chinese Economic Growth, 1978-1996

Chris Bramall

Table of Contents

Part I - Chinese Economic Growth in Outline 1: Introduction: The Dengist Restoration 2: The Process of Economic Growth 3: The Contributions of Industry and Agriculture 4: Theories of Economic GrowthPart II - The Role of Initial Conditions 5: The Maoist Legacy and the Literature 6: Social Capability and Physical Capital at the End of the Maoist Era 7: The Role of Surplus Labour 8: The Rates of Saving and InvestmentPart III - Other Proximate Sources of Growth 9: Capital Accumulation after 1978 10: The Growth of Productivity 11: Differences in Prefectural Growth RatesPart IV - The Growth-Promoting State and its Origins 12: The Master Discourse and the State 13: Aggregate Demand and the Internal Terms of Trade 14: The Chinese State and Agriculture 15: The Open Door 16: The State, Industry, and Infrastructure 17: Origins of the Growth-Promoting State 18: Conclusion