to your HTML
Add class="sortable" to any table you'd like to make sortable
Click on the headers to sort
Thanks to many, many people for contributions and suggestions.
Licenced as X11: http://www.kryogenix.org/code/browser/licence.html
This basically means: do what you want with it.
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for (var i=0; i

The S&P 500 did little more than oscillate between 2146 and 2171 during the fourth full week of September 2016, which as far as we're concerned, means that it behaved almost exactly as expected. The following chart shows what our modified model projected as we transitioned back to our standard model during Week 4 of September 2016.

During the next couple of weeks, we expect that our standard model's projections will tend to overestimate the actual trajectory of the S&P 500 by a relatively small margin, as the historic prices we use as the base reference points from which to project future stock prices for the S&P 500 reflect a period of relatively low volatility for U.S. stock prices in the second half of 2015.

When we say "relatively small margin", we mean with respect to the period we just exited, where our standard model's projections were greatly affected by the echo of the volatility that followed the meltdown of China's stock market a year earlier. The next chart shows the latest update for our standard model's projections for 2016.

The shaded regions indicate the periods of time where we know in advance from the historic volatility of stock prices that our standard model's projections of future stock prices will likely be less accurate. Coping with those echoes of past volatility is why we developed our modified model, where we substitute trajectories that directly parallel the historic average trajectory of U.S. stock prices since 1950 for our standard model's projections.

As you can see from the first chart, that modified method appears to have been successful in anticipating the levels to which stock prices might go given how far forward in time investors are collectively looking in the just-completed period where our standard model's projections were affected by the echo effect of past volatility, but we should recognize that we had nearly optimal conditions for testing its performance, where the current year's stock market volatility was characterized by comparatively low levels of noise.

In any case, we'll soon be test driving the modified model again as we'll once again be entering a period where the echoes of past volatility will affect the accuracy of our standard model's projections.

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

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