Nigeria Food Security Outlook Update, October 2017 to May 2018

Main season harvests in much of the northeast have been severely limited by the ongoing conflict

KEY MESSAGES

• Boko Haram conflict in the northeast has severely limited normal livelihoods activities over several years. Many poor and/or displaced households in the region are highly dependent on humanitarian assistance to meet minimal food requirements, and remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!).
Many of those households unable to access assistance are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse outcomes.

• Very limited staple harvests, high food prices, and poor labor opportunities will leave many households in the northeast heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access throughout the outlook period. In the absence of continued assistance, most parts of Borno State, as well as Madagali and Michika LGAs in Adamawa State and Gujba and Gulani LGAs in Yobe State, are expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes between February and at least May 2018.

• Information about conditions for populations who remain in inaccessible areas of the northeast is very limited. However, it is likely that households in areas cut-off from humanitarian access are facing more severe constraints to basic food and non-food needs, with an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) outcomes in these areas throughout the outlook period.

• Main season harvests are underway across the country, and are expected to be average to above-average. Outside of the northeast, most poor households are currently consuming own-produced staples. Although progression of the rainy season was near-normal, main season harvests will be below average in areas affected by communal conflict, as well as in parts of central states affected by pest infestations and areas in central and southeastern states that experienced flooding during the season.