How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? – Basketball AH Under Points Stats Guide

How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? – Basketball AH Under Points Stats Guide

How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? Well, if you are used to betting on let’s say football, you will find basketball under/over lines quite different. Let’s say… more dynamic. Whilst football goals lines remain fixed and you can easily define odds for u/o 2.5 or 3.5 goals markets, basketball lines are different pretty much for every single fixture. It depends from team to team, competition and country, as well as gender and of course skill level. To make sense of those lines, we usually focus on the Even money line. That means 50/50 chance and we look for lines with odds as close as 2.00 as possible. But how to get your head around when you see one match with the Full Time Including Over Time AH under/over line of 140.5 whilst another is put to bet with the line of 218.5? Keeping track and calculating all the stats for every team seems very time consuming and not feasible. However, we believe that we have a perfect solution that solves this problem.

Basketball FTOT inc. OT AH Under Points Stats

Our smart basketball stats cover the Asian Handicaps under points markets and work like a treat. We record every Evens money line where possible and use them in future stats calculations. And we will explain how it exactly works below:

One of the first columns that you will notice is the blue coloured AVG column. It’s the average of 73% for Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns for Under AH FTOT inc. OT Points betting. Is it a chance of 73% for the game finishing under 218.5 points at full time after extra time? Not quite. That number is our calculated average based on 6 other factors. Look at the stats breakdown and full walkthrough below:

For every single team’s last 20 matches (in this case, it’s Indiana Pacers) we check for the Evens odds under/over points line and record the under and over results. We can see that the range of the AH under/over lines for Indiana’s matches is 22 points (highest 221.5, lowest 199.5). You can also spot the odd NULL entry for the line which means that the AH points line and odds were missing at that time (e.g. bookies have not priced it up for some reason or left it very late). In that case, we simply use the current line (218.5 points) for our stats calculations.

The rest is very straightforward and the stats from the tables for Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns mean the following:

HL20 – 75% means that 75% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (15/20 matches)

HL10H – 70% means that 70% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 10 home matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (7/10 matches)

HL6 – 100% means that 100% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 1 match finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/6 matches)

AL20 – 65% means that 65% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (13/20 matches)

AL6 – 66% means that 66.66% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (4/6 matches)

AVG – 73% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No – 7 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 71% means that 71.5% out of those last 7 matches finished Under AH Goals Line (5/7 matches)

You will also notice the odds of 1.76 for that Under/Over 218.5 points line. You are allowed to be critical about the spread of those odds. In other words, 1.76 is quite far away from the true even money odds (e.g. 1.95/1.95). However, we will blame the bookmakers for not pricing up the markets sooner than a few hours before the kick-off. Hence the lower odds recorded and lines used for the stats calculations.

On the other hand, such good stats could also have been to blame for such low odds. Have a look at the odds and lines movement since they were published by the bookies:

Bear in mind that our Evens money line was 218.5. And that was approximately 6 hours before the game kicked off. The closing Evens money line was 213.5 with plenty more bookmakers offering (copying the markets) this match for the under/over points betting.
This strong line’s drop proves that basketball under/over markets can be very volatile. We must note that this was the case for one of the most popular basketball competition – NBA. My point is that the more popular competition, the more information is available for bookmakers and yourself to research the betting options. But it’s those smaller and less popular leagues and competitions, with limited information and research opportunities, are the most profitable for the professional bettors and traders.

Further Analysis

Our stats and trends are great and will quickly point you to some good qualifiers for your bets and trades. However, in order to give you an even better chance, you will need to doyour own research.

If you want to be really good and achieve a great win rate, you will need to be better informed than the bookies. As I mentioned before, you stand a better chance finding your betting niche in some less popular markets/competitions. What should you look for? You don’t need to worry about the weather in basketball betting as it’s an indoor sport. Your main focus should be on team news and morale. Sometimes teams give chance to their youngsters and rest key players, other times many of the main squad players will be out injured. Just think how that extra information can affect your under points betting chances or can help you catch some really good value odds and lines. Where to look for that information? Just browse club websites and social media profiles, players’ social media pages and fan pages for the teams that you are interested in. Also, internet forums and other punters/tipsters may share some information with you.

If you have any interesting tips or resources for basketball under points betting, please feel free to share them in the comments below.

Using Head To Head trends for football betting and trading

Using Head To Head trends for football betting and trading

When you analyze football matches for betting or trading, you usually pay the most attention to the form stats. The next step is often to check the Head To Head (H2H) trends. It’s always reassuring to see some good form stats being backed by the H2H stats. In this guide, I will explain to you why it’s useful to start with the Head To Head trends for some markets and will show you how to use smart sports stats H2H columns that we offer for all sports and markets.

What is Head To Head?

H2H is simply a record of two teams playing against each other. Depending on sport, country and competition, the two teams will play each other at least twice (home and away) during the season or year. The H2H records are usually used to find apparent patterns and trends such as one team’s dominance, low or high goal scoring affairs, ‘friendly’ or very feisty matches with plenty of bookings and other patterns. Take for example derby matches between teams for the same city. You may often hear people saying that the stats forms go out of the window for those encounters. Therefore it’s possible to identify some good betting and trading opportunities very quickly just by looking at some solid H2H records.

H2H trends (Find the best patterns in seconds)

When you browse our stats tables, you will notice two H2H columns:

H2H No – it’s simply number of the H2H matches between teams two teams excluding friendlies (maximum of last 8 matches)

H2H % or H2H Avg – it’s a percentage of a given outcome e.g. BTTS or the average number of goals in those H2H meetings etc.

Those two columns are usually displayed after the blue column with the AVG % stats. See the example below:

In order to find the best H2H records, please click on the H2H % header (see the green arrow on the screenshot above). For example, we have the Over 2.5 goals stats above and after sorting the stats by the H2H %, we can see the matches with the biggest % of over 2.5 goals in the H2H matches.

Please note

The first match on the list (Kiel vs Union) shows 100% for the H2H over 2.5 goals, however, it’s based only on 1 match, as this is how many times those two teams faced each other in the recent years.

Filtering the H2H No (Number of H2H matches)

Let’s filter the stats and look for matches that had 8 H2H meetings. Just type 8 in the H2H No column as shown on the picture below:

Looking for value bets and trades with the H2H trends

After sorting the over 2.5 goals stats table above, we can notice that one match (Rangers vs Aberdeen) stands out with the H2H trends % and can be backed at very good odds of 2.00 (Evens). This fixture finished over 2.5 goals 7 out of 8 last matches.

The odds for this match finishing in 3 or more goals are around 2.00, which means that the bookies give it around 50% chance.

Are the good H2H trends on their own enough to place the bet?

Would I back the over 2.5 goals in that match at those odds based only on the 7/8 previous matches finished in 3 or more goals? No. The goals markets are very specific and require more analysis before taking low or high goals scoring positions. I would like to know about key players availability for this match (especially strikers) – I would rather want to see them playing. But I would mind for the key defenders to miss out on that match. Furthermore, I would check the weather forecast for the match time and ensure that the playing surface is not unplayable (heavy snow or rain). It’s January in Scotland at the end of the day… the KO is scheduled late in the evening. I would try to find out as much as possible about the teams’ morale and motivation etc. After checking those aspects and some more information, I would have a better chance of winning this bet. Thanks to the H2H trends, I have a great starting point.

Other opportunities based on the H2H Trends

One of the best uses of the Head To Head trends are Bookings and Sending Off markets. They make more sense to use than the form bookings stats. You can probably recall some very brutal matches with plenty of cards and you will expect certain rivalries to produce similar outcomes again. Sevilla vs Betis, Liverpool vs Everton, Roma vs Lazio, Real vs Barcelona are only a few of the pairs that may come to you when thinking about feisty encounters. Our Bookings H2H trends will point out many more of interesting patterns. Have a look at the example below:

Matches sorted by highest over 5.5 yellow cards. First one up Espanyol vs Sevilla:

And the cherry on top of the cake:

Guimaraes vs Estoril produced 3 matches with over 0.5 red cards and 2 matches with over 1.5 red cards in their last 8 H2H meetings.

Perhaps Abner took his first opportunity to revenge something from his last encounter with Guimaraes as he only lasted 9 minutes before being shown the red card.

That’s why I truly rate the H2H trends and would recommend it to anyone to use them more in their betting & trading. Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of H2H trends in the comments section below.

Handball – First Half Asian Handicap Under Goals betting and trading markets are not considered to be a very popular option for punters and traders. As a sport, handball is very popular in Europe. When it comes to betting or trading, it’s not very well known, nor popular. Saying so, this fact is the best advantage you can have in your campaign against the bookies. The Asian Handicap betting lines offered by the bookmakers are often not very well researched and leave great opportunities for professional punters and traders. I have personally experienced Bookmakers aggressively slashing their odds, massively dropping the AH lines when some well-prepared professionals were recommending their Handball AH lines bets to their followers. So if handball is your passion and you wish to learn more about betting, you will have some wonderful prospects and these Handball stats will make your statistical research a lot easier.

Stats

If you ask punters and traders about under/over lines betting, most of them will tell that they simply can’t back the under goals lines. Why? Because you have to wait until the full time for the outcome to be won and if they watch the game live, the late goals will usually mean bets being lost. They would rather back the over goals lines and enjoy some winners before the match finishes and experience many great matches with last minute winners for their bets.

At the same time, the majority of punters and traders who rely on their emotions, are not successful in the long-term. If you are an aspiring bettor or trader, you simply can’t afford to overlook the under goals lines markets. These handball First Half AH Under Goals stats are your starting point.

The handball under/over Asian Handicap goals lines are not the same every time and will differ depending on fixtures, competitions, countries etc. That fact makes it extra difficult when it comes to calculating stats. However, we believe that we have a good statistical model for the Handball First Half AH Under Goals markets.

As mentioned previously, we can observe quite good a big range of lines available for the Under/Over First Half Goals markets. Furthermore, the fact that overs are favoured by the punters can also be visible as the under goals odds are usually slightly higher.

Let’s have a look at the TOP 2 stats from our table (as they are both on the top with the 62% average stats). How do we calculate the stats when the under/over lines are likely to be different sometimes? Please refer to the image below:

For every single team’s last 20 matches (in this case, it’s Midtjylland Women) we check for the Evens odds under/over line and record the under and over results. We can see that the AH under/over lines for Midtjylland’s matches has been pretty consistent (23.5 or 24.5 goals). However, this is not the case very often. You can also spot the 4 NULL entries which mean that the goals lines and odds were missing at that time (e.g. bookies have not priced it up for some reason or left it very late). In that case, we simply use the current line (23.5 goals) for our stats calculations.

The rest is very straightforward and the stats from the tables for Ringkobing W vs Midtjylland W mean the following:

HL20 – 40% means that 40% of Ringkobing W’s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (8/20 matches)

HL10H – 60% means that 60% of Ringkobing W’s last 10 home matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/10 matches)

HL6 – 16% means that 16.66% of Ringkobing W’s last 1 match finished in Under AH Goals Line (1/6 matches)

AL20 – 80% means that 80% of Midtjylland W’s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (16/20 matches)

AL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Midtjylland W’s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (5/6 matches)

AVG – 62% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No – 8 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 62% means that 62.5% out of those last 8 matches finished Under AH Goals Line (5/8 matches)

There are also the odds for Under AH Goals Line – Under 25.5 goals @ 2.05. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures. The other match with the same stats (Serbia vs Belarus) had significantly higher line (29.5 goals).

Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?

Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in sports is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of Handball Under AH First Half Goals Lines markets in the comments section below.

Football – Over 2.5 Goals Statistics Guide (Learn to bet on Over 2.5 goals markets)

Football – Over 2.5 Goals Statistics Guide (Learn to bet on Over 2.5 goals markets)

Football Over 2.5 Goals markets are one of the most popular football betting and trading markets. Whether they are placed as singles or multiples (accumulator coupons) they seem to be a logical market option for goal hungry fans. Every football fan wants to watch a match with plenty of goals and it can only get better when they win theirs over 2.5 goals bets.

Stats

On that page, you will find two tables – the first consists of matches from the main leagues and competitions and below you will find the second table with the fixtures from so-called lower leagues and competitions. The main reason for splitting the stats this way is the odds availability. We update our stats a couple of nights before the kick-off to give plenty of time to find good value bets and catch good early odds. It works well with those bigger competitions and leagues. You will also notice that the matches in the second table will often be lacking odds and this is because the bookies are not very quick at pricing them up and often do so a few hours before the kick-off or may not offer some matches for betting at all. Saying so, you may find some real gems in terms of stats for those lower leagues & competitions and some pretty good odds too.

The stats themselves are pretty easy to calculate and this particular model has been working great over the years to predict over 2.5 goals correctly. We look at the long, medium and short-term form and trends for both teams, as well as include head to head stats.

Let’s focus on the TOP 1 stats from our Over 2.5 Goals stats tables for the upcoming fixtures – a match that will take place on the 19th of January 2018. Kasimpasa will host Alanyaspor in Turkish Super League. Why is this match the top one from the main leagues and competitions?

The Odds

There are also odds for the Over 2.5 goals outcome – 1.57. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures (2 days before the KO) and are most likely different (more likely lower due to good stats and popularity) now. Let’s have another look at the odds comparison website (oddsportal.com) to give you a better idea of how the odds can fluctuate.

Most of the bookmakers offer O2.5 goals at around 1.50 (1/2 fractional odds) and below. Of course, you can still get 1.60 with some smaller bookmakers, but the odds have already dropped since when we uploaded our stats.

I would like to point out another interesting fact. If you hoover some specific odds, you will be able to see their brief history in the orange box. You will notice that this match was first offered to bet on 7 days in advance and the Over 2.5 goals opening odds with many bookmakers were 1.80 or above. Now that is a massive difference in value! We don’t calculate the stats 7 days in advance for obvious reasons, but you will still be able to find great pre-match trading and value betting opportunities when getting involved a couple of night before the kick-off. If you wish to learn more about the pre-match or pre-kick off trading, we can honestly recommend this superb book.

So we have a good looking match based on stats – it’s a great starting point. But this is where the more important work begins if you are serious about betting and trading.

Further Analysis

Professional betting and trading consist of both statistical and qualitative analyses. The stats bits has been done for you and it leaves you the second part of the puzzle.

Once you have your best Over 2.5 goals statistical selections shortlisted you will need to consider odds (you will need to learn to spot value and poor odds) and look at a few non-statistical factors:

Team’s News – look for any information about injuries or resting of key players.

Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?

Weather & playing conditions – remember to check the weather forecast for any severe rain, snow and wind as those will often influence football outcomes even at the highest level (e.g. think waterlogged pitches, snowy or frozen surfaces)

Referee appointments – whether you believe or not, the referee bias exists and affects the outcomes every now and again.

Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in football is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of over 2.5 goals markets in the comments section below.

Hockey – Full Time Asian Handicap Under Goals Stats Guide

Hockey – Full Time Asian Handicap Under Goals Stats Guide

Hockey – Full Time Asian Handicap Under Goals betting and trading markets are not considered to be a very popular option for punters and traders. Firstly, if you are a hockey fan and bet on the AH goals markets you would rather want to watch a match with plenty of goals, so backing the under AH lines would be contrary to those beliefs. Secondary, if you ask punters and traders about under/over lines betting, most of them will tell that they simply can’t back the under goals lines. Why? Because you have to wait until the full time for the outcome to be won and if they watch the game live, the late goals will usually mean bets being lost. They would rather back the over goals lines and enjoy some winners before the match finishes and experience many great matches with last minute winners for their bets.

At the same time, the majority of punters and traders who rely on their emotions, are not successful in the long-term. If you are an aspiring bettor or trader, you simply can’t afford to overlook the under goals lines markets. These hockey FT AH Under Goals stats are your starting point.

Stats

The hockey under/over Asian Handicap goals lines are not the same every time and will differ depending on fixtures, competitions, countries etc. That fact makes it extra difficult when it comes to calculating stats. However, we believe that we have a good statistical model for the Hockey FT Under AH Goals markets.

Let’s have a look at the TOP 1 stats from our table – AHL match between Utica Comets and Rochester Americans. How do we calculate the stats when the under/over lines are likely to be different sometimes? Please refer to the image below:

For every single team’s last 20 matches (in this case, it’s Utica Comets) we check for the Evens odds under/over line and record the under and over results. We can see that the AH under/over lines for Utica’s matches has been pretty consistent (5.5 goals). However, this is not the case very often. You can also spot the single 4.5 goals line and one missing line (e.g. bookies have not priced it up for some reason). In that case, we simply use the current line (5.5 goals) for our stats calculations.

The rest is very straightforward and the stats from the tables stand for the following:

HL20 – 55% means that 55% of Utica’s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (11/20 matches)

HL10H – 40% means that 40% of Utica’s last 10 home matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (4/10 matches)

HL6 – 50% means that 50% of Utica’s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (5/6 matches)

AL20 – 80% means that 80% of Rochester’s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (16/20 matches)

AL10A – 90% means that 90% of Rochester’s last 10 away matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (9/10 matches)

AL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Rochester’s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (5/6 matches)

AVG – 66% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No – 8 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 75% means that 75% out of those last 8 matches finished Under AH Goals Line (6/8 matches)

There are also the odds for Under AH Goals Line – Under 5.5 goals @ 1.78. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures.

Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?

Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in sports is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Football – Both Teams To Score Statistics Guide

Football – Both Teams To Score Statistics Guide

Football Both Teams To Score (BTTS) or as some call it – Goals Galore, are one of the most popular football betting markets. Whether they are placed as singles or multiples (accumulator coupons) they seem to be a logical market option for goal hungry fans. Every football fan wants to watch a match with plenty of goals and it can only get better when they win their BTTS bets.

Stats

On that page, you will find two tables – the first consists of matches from the main leagues and competitions and below you will find the second table with the fixtures from so-called lower leagues and competitions. The main reason for splitting the stats this way is the odds availability. We update our stats a couple of nights before the kick-off to give plenty of time to find good value bets and catch good early odds. It works well with those bigger competitions and leagues. You will also notice that the matches in the second table will often be lacking odds and this is because the bookies are not very quick at pricing them up and often do so a few hours before the kick-off or may not offer some matches for betting at all. Saying so, you may find some real gems in terms of stats for those lower leagues & competitions and some pretty good odds too.

Let’s focus on the TOP 1 stats from our BTTS stats tables – a match that will take place on the 19th of January 2018. It’s a second game week fixture after the winter break in Germany’s top-flight competition – Bundesliga. A match between Hertha Berlin and Borussia Dortmund.

There are also odds for BTTS – 1.73. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures (2 days before the KO) and are most likely different (more likely lower due to good stats and popularity) now.

So we have a good looking match based on stats – it’s a great starting point. But this is where the more important work begins if you are serious about betting and trading.

Further Analysis

Professional betting and trading consist of both statistical and qualitative analyses. The stats bits has been done for you and it leaves you the second part of the puzzle.

Once you have your best Both Teams To Score statistical selections shortlisted you will need to consider odds (you will need to learn to spot value and poor odds) and look at a few non-statistical factors:

Team’s News – look for any information about injuries or resting of key players.

Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?

Weather & playing conditions – remember to check the weather forecast for any severe rain, snow and wind as those will often influence football outcomes even at the highest level (e.g. think waterlogged pitches, snowy or frozen surfaces)

Referee appointments – whether you believe or not, the referee bias exists and affects the outcomes every now and again.

Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in football is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of BTTS markets in the comments section below.

Stats Update Times

Stats Update Times

Running the Smart Sports Stats services is a complex activity and it involves a dedicated server to download, calculate and update all sports statistics. Over the years of running our stats websites, we have found and established the best practices to keep everything working as flawless as possible.

You can refer to this post as a quick guide to the stats update times for every sport. I would like to point out an important issue with bookmakers and their odds/lines publishing times. We have found that the bookies are quite lazy slow when it comes to publishing lines for certain sports such as basketball, tennis, handball, volleyball etc. That means that some of the lines for those less popular leagues and competitions are not added until a few hours before the matches, which makes it impossible for us to run the full data cycle and include them in our stats tables. There is no such issue with football and the fixed betting lines e.g. (under/over 2.5 goals etc.) make it possible to update our stats 2 days in advance (in some cases the odds may not be available though).

In order to increase the number of matches included in the Asian Handicap stats for all sports excluding football, we run double updates – a night before and on the morning of the kick-off. Please find the full list of stats update times for all our sports below:

Running the Smart Sports Stats services is a complex activity and it [more]

Disclaimer

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