Smoke is getting thicker here,but there is no fires near by out to the NW the way the wind is coming from,So I dont know where the fire is,temp is about 34 deg,and there is a light northerly to NWer blowing.I am here in a little village of Ellalong surrounded by bush,so I hope no idiot lights any fires,as it is so dry here, the place will go up like a bom.

Edited by Stormy3 (21/10/201314:24)

_________________________https://www.facebook.com/supercell1Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

A lot of lightning out to the west of Cobar as well, looks to be moving east.Hope there is rain as well other wise the lightning in dry storms with strikes could mean more fires.

_________________________https://www.facebook.com/supercell1Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

That is going to put storms very close to the fires - going to create some challenging conditions (strong winds and chance of new fires) down there for the firies. Hope there is some decent rain with them.

I really hope there is some decent rain with any storms that may develop as well, it's a worrying situation for all that are anywhere near these fires. The grass around here is going brown and I'm on the coast so further west must be very bad.This is one of those times I hope the BoM get the forecast wrong and the winds don't eventuate.

Still not sure the models have a handle on any major pattern flip. Could be the chance of some coast rain Tues / Weds next week. But to me it seems that the really significant wet stuff is modelled post t144 and isn't working it's way though.

This is the most intense beginning to spring I can remember for a long time. I know weather memories blur over time, but it has been week after week of dry, / every 4 - 5 days a hot north westerly blast, with slightly cooler south/south-westerly winds in between.The dryness has been parching.What concerns me is that these conditions may not change. It was only 2 months ago that the BOM were predicting a wetter than normal spring. lol. They have no idea. And, neither do any of us to be honest.

I'm about to start some rather large excavations on a large domestic project. I'd suggest that I have as much evidence that it's about to start raining as the BOM do.

I remember 1968 had a hot dry Spring, with maxima for Oct and Nov about 2 above average (not 3+ above like this year). There were major fires in the Blue Mountains and the Illawarra in November. The following December was cool with slightly above average rainfall, with December average maxima almost as cool as 2011 and over 2 degrees cooler than November. January 1969 was warm and dry and February average and very wet.

-2 this morning here in Bx - nice and cool for this time of year. Record is -2.7 so pretty fresh. We should have early frost the next mornings. Enjoy them while I can. Better than 16 degrees we had a couple of nights just recently.

I remember 1968 had a hot dry Spring, with maxima for Oct and Nov about 2 above average (not 3+ above like this year). There were major fires in the Blue Mountains and the Illawarra in November. The following December was cool with slightly above average rainfall, with December average maxima almost as cool as 2011 and over 2 degrees cooler than November. January 1969 was warm and dry and February average and very wet.

December 2011 was record breaking cool and wet in many areas of Sydney, not all areas, but some.

I wouldn't be surprised if December is cooler and a little wetter, but not on the same level as 2011, that was exceptional and we might not get another summer month to equal that for some years.

0NLY 5 MMS SO FAR FOR OCTOBER,THING ARE LOOKING VERY BAD,WHAT A DRY YEAR HERE.

Edited by Stormy3 (26/10/201317:54)

_________________________https://www.facebook.com/supercell1Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.