Angela Merkel victory could help David Cameron in Europe

Angela Merkel will enter the final stage of her campaign for re-election as
German Chancellor on Sunday amid growing signs that her expected victory
will see her join Britain's effort to win back powers from Brussels.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a speech during her campaign for the upcoming September 22 electionsPhoto: AFP/GETTY

By Jeevan Vasagar in Berlin

6:00AM BST 08 Sep 2013

At a stadium in Dusseldorf, Mrs Merkel is expected to remind supporters of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) that Germany has escaped the high unemployment endured by Spain and Greece.

A giant poster in Berlin displays the Chancellor’s hands and the slogan: “Germany’s future: in good hands.”

But a poll last week showed the impact on public opinion of the Eurozone crisis - and German-funded bailouts for countries like Greece.

The message is simple: most Germans think they have shown enough generosity and believe their next government must not write any more cheques for crisis-hit countries in southern Europe.

The survey by YouGov Deutschland found that 52 per cent of Germans want their leaders to withhold any more loans; 57 per cent oppose cancelling more debts - and 55 per cent think that southern European countries should simply leave the Eurozone, reducing it to a more select group of nations similar to Germany.

Meanwhile, almost two thirds say the next Chancellor would only have a mandate to give more aid to the Eurozone if a referendum was held.

Reflecting the public mood, Mrs Merkel has suggested that the European Union should ask if it can “give something back” to national governments. Her spokesman, Steffen Seibert, described the repatriation of powers from Brussels to national governments - a key objective of British diplomacy - as “a sensible idea”. He told Bloomberg news agency that there was a “high degree of concentration of regulation” in the hands of the European Commission.

Michael Wohlgemuth, the Berlin director of Open Europe, which campaigns for reform of the EU, stressed the importance of German public support for the repatriation of powers.

“A substantial part of [German] voters really support that idea. So perhaps it comes as no surprise that some politicians like to hint at it,” he said.

Another indicator is the rise of Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD), an openly Eurosceptic party committed to removing southern European countries from the Eurozone, which hit 4 per cent in a poll published last week - just shy of the 5 per cent threshold needed to enter the Bundestag, the German parliament. Previously, AfD had struggled to climb past 2 per cent.

Manfred Gullner, the head of the Forsa Institute, which carried out the survey, suggested that polls may understate the level of AfD support because the party’s voters saw public opinion organisations as part of a distrusted establishment.

Ulrike Guérot, from the European Council on Foreign Relations, described the AfD as the “newest unpredictable element” of the election, which takes place on Sept 22. The new party could have a “disproportionate influence”, threatening to squeeze Mrs Merkel’s junior coalition partner, the centrist Free Democrats.

”Even if it fails to clear the 5 per cent hurdle, it is fair to assume that AfD will take precious votes from both the CDU and the FDP and undermine the chances of a coalition between them,” wrote Dr Guérot.

”Many leading voices in Germany, including Merkel herself, have welcomed the British government’s European reform agenda. On the left of the political spectrum, some prominent political economists have recently argued that the social costs of the Eurozone are too high, especially for its southern member states, and that a return to national currencies might be a better option.”

Mr Cameron has promised to renegotiate Britain’s membership of the EU and seek the return of powers to national governments. If re-elected, he would hold a referendum on the deal in 2017, giving Britain a choice between staying in the EU on new terms, or leaving.

Britain hopes that a re-elected Mrs Merkel will help this campaign. The polls suggest that the Chancellor is indeed on course for victory, with a survey on Friday placing the CDU and its ally, the Christian Social Union, on 41 per cent, compared with only 27 per cent for their main rivals on the centre-left, the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Last Sunday, Mrs Merkel conducted a television debate with Peer Steinbrueck, her challenger from the SPD. The polls barely shifted after this encounter - and there will be no further debates during the campaign.

Meanwhile, Mrs Merkel’s coalition ally, the Free Democrats, registered only 5 per cent - exactly the crucial threshold needed to win seats in the Bundestag. If this party falls below this level and suffers elimination, this would also deprive the Chancellor of her preferred coalition partner. She could then be forced to seek a “grand coalition” with the SPD - an option favoured by 26 per cent of German voters. However, experts agree that whatever the shape of the next coalition, Mrs Merkel is overwhelmingly likely to stay as Chancellor.

Along with this powerful ally, Mr Cameron might also find a friend in Holland, where the government set out a plan in June to repatriate powers from Brussels under the slogan “European where necessary, national where possible”.

However, France remains implacably opposed to any renegotiation of the terms of Britain’s membership. Even with German support, Mr Cameron may find it hard to overcome this obstacle. Any amendment to the Treaty of Rome, which founded the EU, requires uanimous approval from all 28 member states.