Published: Thursday, March 14, 2013 at 1:00 a.m.

Last Modified: Wednesday, March 13, 2013 at 11:10 p.m.

Coming back strong after a post-recession starching, Florida is now growing so quickly that the Sunshine State could soon overtake New York as the nation's third most populous state.

According to newly released Census Bureau data, Florida's population hit 19.3 million last summer, while New York came in at 19.6 million.

But those figures belie growth rates that could have widespread ramifications — especially for Southwest Florida, which has gained 46,000 new residents since 2006.

Florida's population, fueled by job seekers, foreign immigrants and baby boomer retirees, is growing at a much faster percentage rate than New York's — growth that is likely to continue through 2013.

Florida grew by 235,000 people in 2012, but a handful of economists contend 2013 growth will be even higher, as high as 360,000 new residents.

“Florida is getting its economic groove back,” said Mekael Teshome, an economist at PNC Financial Services Group who covers the Southeast region.

Moody's Analytics economist Chris Lafakis agrees.

Moody's is among those predicting Florida's population will swell by 360,000 this year. New York, by comparison, is expected to add between 50,000 and 100,000 new net residents.

“We do expect very strong population growth over the next few years, accelerating to over 2 percent, which would be double the national average, by 2014,” Lafakis said.

Between 300,000 and 400,000 new net residents would be considered very strong growth. By comparison, during 2005, the peak of last decade's economic growth, 427,000 people moved to Florida, Lafakis said.

Teshome expects Florida's year-over-year population gain to stabilize in the upper 200,000s, which would further fuel recoveries in real estate, retail sales, construction and other sectors.

“I don't know whether it is going to happen in 2013 or 2014, but Florida is going to pass New York in population in the next few years, that's for sure,” he said.

Lafakis said the shift stems from Florida's demographic drivers — good weather, advantageous business climate and employment and retirement opportunities.

The idea that Florida could overtake New York in population is not new, said Sean Snaith, a University of Central Florida economist.

“Recession and the housing crisis threw a wrench into the works,” said Snaith.

Snaith expects the state to tack on another 265,000 residents this year.

“If home prices start to recover up north more quickly over the course of the year, the ability to sell a house and finance retirement is going to improve for a lot of baby boomers,” Snaith said. “That could stoke our population growth.”

Higher home prices in Northern states also spurs labor force mobility, which helps the state's economy.

Sarasota-Bradenton also benefits from having specialty industries in areas like insurance, employee leasing, and various financial-related endeavors.

“You have a specialized workforce that will attract employment opportunities as the economy gets going,” Lafakis said.

Health care, always a strong job driver in Florida, is likely to remain strong, he added.

An influx of retirees will boost populations from Bradenton down through Naples, and on the east coast from Deltona to Port St. Lucie, according to Lafakis' data.

Comparison growth

In the six years since the height of the residential real estate boom, Florida's population has grown by 1.2 million, Census figures show.

Texas added even more residents — 2.6 million people during the same six years. Its current population is 26 million. California's population grew by 1.6 million, to 38 million, during the same timeframe.

As such, the rankings of the top four states by population have remained static for many years. California is No. 1, followed by Texas, New York and Florida.

Southwest Florida counties, which were hard hit by the housing crash, have also eked out net population gains since 2007.

Manatee County added 21,000 people during the last six years, bringing its population to 334,000.

Sarasota County added 17,000 residents during the past six years, bringing its population to 386,000.

Charlotte County, meanwhile, added 8,000 to reach a population of 162,000.

That puts Southwest Florida in the middle of the pack in terms of growth statewide. Miami/Dade led the state, adding 189,000 residents to get to a population of just under 2.6 million.

While population never went down in Florida, the Census numbers show, it did flatten out in 2008 and 2009. “When population growth stopped or went negative for a year or two, we saw just how important that was,” said UCF's Snaith. “The lack of that population growth to date has made our recovery much more difficult.”

<p>Coming back strong after a post-recession starching, Florida is now growing so quickly that the Sunshine State could soon overtake New York as the nation's third most populous state.</p><p>According to newly released Census Bureau data, Florida's population hit 19.3 million last summer, while New York came in at 19.6 million.</p><p>But those figures belie growth rates that could have widespread ramifications — especially for Southwest Florida, which has gained 46,000 new residents since 2006.</p><p>Florida's population, fueled by job seekers, foreign immigrants and baby boomer retirees, is growing at a much faster percentage rate than New York's — growth that is likely to continue through 2013.</p><p>Florida grew by 235,000 people in 2012, but a handful of economists contend 2013 growth will be even higher, as high as 360,000 new residents.</p><p>“Florida is getting its economic groove back,” said Mekael Teshome, an economist at PNC Financial Services Group who covers the Southeast region.</p><p>Moody's Analytics economist Chris Lafakis agrees.</p><p>Moody's is among those predicting Florida's population will swell by 360,000 this year. New York, by comparison, is expected to add between 50,000 and 100,000 new net residents.</p><p>“We do expect very strong population growth over the next few years, accelerating to over 2 percent, which would be double the national average, by 2014,” Lafakis said.</p><p>Between 300,000 and 400,000 new net residents would be considered very strong growth. By comparison, during 2005, the peak of last decade's economic growth, 427,000 people moved to Florida, Lafakis said.</p><p>Teshome expects Florida's year-over-year population gain to stabilize in the upper 200,000s, which would further fuel recoveries in real estate, retail sales, construction and other sectors.</p><p>“I don't know whether it is going to happen in 2013 or 2014, but Florida is going to pass New York in population in the next few years, that's for sure,” he said.</p><p>Lafakis said the shift stems from Florida's demographic drivers — good weather, advantageous business climate and employment and retirement opportunities.</p><p>The idea that Florida could overtake New York in population is not new, said Sean Snaith, a University of Central Florida economist.</p><p>“Recession and the housing crisis threw a wrench into the works,” said Snaith.</p><p>Snaith expects the state to tack on another 265,000 residents this year.</p><p>“If home prices start to recover up north more quickly over the course of the year, the ability to sell a house and finance retirement is going to improve for a lot of baby boomers,” Snaith said. “That could stoke our population growth.”</p><p>Higher home prices in Northern states also spurs labor force mobility, which helps the state's economy.</p><p>Sarasota-Bradenton also benefits from having specialty industries in areas like insurance, employee leasing, and various financial-related endeavors.</p><p>“You have a specialized workforce that will attract employment opportunities as the economy gets going,” Lafakis said.</p><p>Health care, always a strong job driver in Florida, is likely to remain strong, he added.</p><p>An influx of retirees will boost populations from Bradenton down through Naples, and on the east coast from Deltona to Port St. Lucie, according to Lafakis' data.</p><p><B>Comparison growth</b></p><p>In the six years since the height of the residential real estate boom, Florida's population has grown by 1.2 million, Census figures show.</p><p>Texas added even more residents — 2.6 million people during the same six years. Its current population is 26 million. California's population grew by 1.6 million, to 38 million, during the same timeframe.</p><p>As such, the rankings of the top four states by population have remained static for many years. California is No. 1, followed by Texas, New York and Florida.</p><p>Southwest Florida counties, which were hard hit by the housing crash, have also eked out net population gains since 2007.</p><p>Manatee County added 21,000 people during the last six years, bringing its population to 334,000.</p><p>Sarasota County added 17,000 residents during the past six years, bringing its population to 386,000.</p><p>Charlotte County, meanwhile, added 8,000 to reach a population of 162,000.</p><p>That puts Southwest Florida in the middle of the pack in terms of growth statewide. Miami/Dade led the state, adding 189,000 residents to get to a population of just under 2.6 million.</p><p>While population never went down in Florida, the Census numbers show, it did flatten out in 2008 and 2009. “When population growth stopped or went negative for a year or two, we saw just how important that was,” said UCF's Snaith. “The lack of that population growth to date has made our recovery much more difficult.”</p><p>NOTEStart</p>