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Forex Analysis

Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for March 12, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite non-volatile amid the bearish trend as it broke below 111.00 price area with a daily close. Recently, USD/JPY has been quite making corrective moves amid volatile trade in light of mixed economic labor reports published on Friday. Ahead of the upcoming rate hike this month, USD is expected to gain impulsively over JPY whereas the market got into correction and indecision. The US Unemployment Rate remained constant at 4.1% which was expected to decrease to 4.0% and Average Hourly Earnings decreased to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% whereas Non-Farm Employment Change increased to 313k from the previous figure of 239k. Though the Employment Change report was published with a surplus, unchanged Unemployment Rate and a decrease in Average Hourly Earnings explain that the employment development was observed in the lower boundary jobs rather than high impact economic development jobs. This week, US Retail Sales, Core CPI, and Building Permits report are going to be published which are also assumed to have mixed results but any positive economic report result is expected to lead to further gain on the USD side in the short term. On the other hand, BOJ Policy Rate report was published recently where the key policy rate remained unchanged at -0.10% whereas Average Cash Earnings remained unchanged at 0.7% and Household Spending increased significantly to 2.0% from the previous negative value of -0.1%. This week, Japan's PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 2.5% from the previous value of 2.7% and Core Machinery Orders report is expected to increase to 5.3% from the previous value of -11.9%. As for the current scenario, this week USD/JPY is expected to trade sideways whereas certain bearish pressure is expected until the US comes up with positive economic reports to recover the gains in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently holding below the dynamic level of 20 EMA after rejecting off it with a daily close. The pair is currently going through a Bullish Regular Divergence which might get triggered after the price bounces back from the 105.50 price area with a daily close which will lead to further bullish pressure towards 107.50 in the coming days. As the price remains above 105.50 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.