NOW FOR NEXT YEAR’S PREMIUMS — Now that we’ve got sign-up numbers for Obamacare’s first enrollment season, the outstanding question is whether the new enrollees are healthy enough that insurers won’t jack up premiums for next year. “The success of the health care law’s first year will be judged in large part by where premiums settle,” Pro’s Brett Norman writes. “Stable or modestly higher rates will signal that Obamacare attracted the right mix of consumers. That would give the law’s supporters good cause to hope that a fresh wave of people — particularly healthy ones — will come into the program next year.” http://politico.pro/1e0ypc1

OBAMA: DON’T BLOW IT — The president clocked a big win by making the 7 million Obamacare signups target. Now he’s got to avoid blowing it. POLITICO’s Edward-Isaac Dovere writes: “Obama’s got a history of watching his victories slip away before fully capitalizing on them. Last year alone, his reelection bump disappeared into a triple whammy of low-grade spring scandals. Then all the good will he had coming out of the government shutdown was eclipsed by the devastating HealthCare.gov rollout. Not only does this give him a chance to show that he and his party actually can be trusted to run the government but also a shot to reclaim the narrative of his presidency.” http://politi.co/1inq6UP

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Good morning and welcome to PULSE, where we’re in a pretty good mood for Monday. Enrollment numbers are in (mostly), Congress leaves town Thursday for two weeks and it was warm enough to pull my bike out over the weekend. Oh, and we discovered that the SNL version of Rep. Red Upton isn’t nearly as funny as the real one. http://wapo.st/1fUkdjG

“It’s been a long night in New York City, it’s been a long night in PULSE too.”

-- Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi dismissed former WH press secretary Robert Gibbs’ suggestion last week that the Obama administration might kill the health law’s employer mandate. “I don't know who his clients are or what his perspective is, but we are celebrating the fact that we have over 7 million who have signed up,” the House minority leader said of Gibbs, calling the law’s various provisions “integral.” She was speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

--SPOTTED SATURDAY: HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, in Union Market

HAPPENING THIS WEEK:

…Today the Obama administration is expected to announce the 2015 rates for Medicare Advantage.

… House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee will hold a hearing (but not a markup) on three bills addressing new FDA drug approvals, prescription drug abuse and new sunscreen ingredients. That’s Monday at 3 p.m. E&C will also hear from GAO Health Director Marcia Crosse on Tuesday at 10:15 a.m. about implementation of the Tobacco Control Act.

… Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary Mark Iwry will testify about the ACA’s employer mandate before the House Ways and Means Health Subcommittee on Tuesday at 2 p.m.

… Sebelius will trek up to the Hill Thursday at 10 a.m. to testify before Senate Finance on Obama’s proposed 2015 budget. http://1.usa.gov/1hRz0fC

FRIENDS OR FOES — George Flinn, the megarich self-funder trying to unseat Senate HELP Committee Chairman Lamar Alexander, says he’s “friends” with his opponent. “I’m not running against him…I’m running for this plan,” Flinn added. That was a reference to his own proposal which would overhaul the current health system in favor of a more free-market approach. Flinn may spend millions promoting the plan but has vowed he won’t attack Alexander. http://politi.co/1jOohTL

NO SWEATING RYAN’S BUDGET — Republicans threatened last week to withhold votes from Paul Ryan’s budget to get back at leadership for using parliamentary maneuvering to pass the one-year “doc fix.” But now House GOP leaders say they believe they’ve quashed opposition to the proposal and laid the groundwork to clear one of the last major pieces of legislation before the midterm election. The chamber is expected to pass the bill this week before lawmakers head outa town. http://politico.pro/QV0zew

--Remember, just like last year Ryan’s budget slashes the benefits under Obamacare but retains its tax increases and reductions in provider payments in order to balance, something Democrats were quick to point out. It would also turn Medicare into a voucher program for those who enroll beginning in 2024.

VULNERABLE SENATORS GET FACE TIME – A number of Senate Democrats are in really tough races this year, and so their leaders are putting together a vulnerable-incumbent protection program, of sorts. At-risk senators will get to beef up their back-home cred by taking the lead on bills and amendments tailored to their campaigns. And they’ll get extra face time in front of TV cameras and in Senate debates.

--“Leaders are coalescing around giving Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor the lead on a bill to protect the Medicare eligibility age, which has become a key issue in his race… And Democratic leaders still haven’t ruled out a vote on proposed fixes to Obamacare championed by red-state Democrats, despite reluctance to do anything to undermine the law,” write POLITICO’s Burgess Everett and Darren Good. http://politi.co/1hRrAJa

NRCC ATTACKS OVER PEDIATRIC RESEARCH LAW — It sure didn’t take long for a pediatric research bill to spawn some political offspring. On Thursday, President Obama signed bipartisan legislation authorizing NIH to spend more money on researching children’s diseases. The next day the National Republican Congressional Committee launched a paid web ad targeting Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.) for voting against it. The ad: http://bit.ly/1mTsdWe

WHO’S TO BLAME FOR OREGON? — Oracle, the contractor that put the state’s failed exchange together, according to 40 percent of respondents in a survey from the GOP firm Harper Polling. The second most popular answer was Obamacare, which 22 percent blamed for the website’s meltdown. Another 21 percent blamed Gov. Kitzhaber and 9 percent said it’s the fault of Republicans in the state legislature. Oregon’s exchange turned out worse than any in the country — and was such a horrific failure that federal officials are investigating it. The poll: http://bit.ly/1oFksoN

THE TAX MAN COMETH — And the final, final Obamacare enrollment deadline too. Tax Day and the last day to sign up for health exchange coverage under an extension now both fall on April 15. DC Health Link is reminding people to get both done at the same time and providing six locations where residents can kill two birds with one stone. http://politico.pro/1e5kMIQ

STATEWEEK — An Urban Institute study finds that states expanding Medicaid saw their uninsured rate drop 4 percentage points from September through early March, compared to a 1.5 point drop in states that rejected it. Meanwhile, Medicaid expansion efforts are ongoing in states including Pennsylvania and Missouri. Pro’s Kyle Cheney has your weekly update: http://politico.pro/1hktinQ

ADA GETS NEW LOBBYIST — Mary Dietrich has joined the American Dental Association as a lobbyist, PULSE hears. Dietrich last worked as chief of staff for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and has also worked on the Labor-HHS-Education subcommittee for Senate Appropriations.

BOULDER LEAST OBESE — People living in Boulder, Colorado are still the least likely in the country to be obese, an accomplishment the community has held onto since 2008. According to Gallup, just 12 percent of residents there are obese, compared to nationwide obesity rate of 27 percent. http://bit.ly/1fRQ7K6

-- The CBO has posted a presentation on how raising the excise tax on cigarettes would affect health and the federal budget. http://1.usa.gov/1qdyECN

MAP OF THE DAY — Our friends at the Urban Institute have mapped the share of the population receiving Social Security disability benefits county by country. What’s interesting and rather surprising is that recipients vary dramatically by county and geographic region. Almost all counties with rates 10 percent or higher are in the south and the 10 counties with the highest DI rates are in Kentucky, Virginia and West Virginia. Factors like prevalence of disabilities and economic conditions explain the differences in part, but not fully. The data: http://urbn.is/1kB14Da

BIPARTISAN ALZHEIMER’S BILL — Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah and Republican Chris Smith have introduced a bill to create a Global Alzheimer’s Fund focused on research, clinical care, support services and prevention. The legislation calls on the HHS secretary to partner with the World Health Organization to develop the fund, which would be modeled after the Global Aids Fund. The Alzheimer’s Association has endorsed it. http://1.usa.gov/1ihzUOV

WHAT WE’RE READING

Hundreds of nursing home complaints are backlogged in Los Angeles county, Kaiser Health News reports. http://bit.ly/1ihRSkk

Obama’s still fighting a health care battle, but this one’s with Democrats and involved his proposed Medicare Advantage cuts, the Hill writes. http://bit.ly/1inPrhq

And the cuts could divide the party over health care in the run-up to this year’s midterm elections, the Wall Street Journal reports. http://on.wsj.com/1lF7z9x

The New York Times reports on a new drug to prevent advanced breast cancer from worsening. http://nyti.ms/1e2UOGa

** A message from America’s biopharmaceutical companies: America’s biopharmaceutical research companies are developing 87 medicines to help the more than 5 million patients in the United States living with Alzheimer’s disease. There are many reasons Alzheimer’s is one of the most complex diseases researchers have ever studied. To start, the brain is the most complex and inaccessible organ in the body and the disease is stubbornly progressive. However, as our understanding of the disease grows so does our ability to find new potential treatment approaches and, ultimately, effective new medicines. Read the new report. http://onphr.ma/2hoi49h**

About The Author

Paige Winfield Cunningham is a health care reporter for POLITICO Pro and co-author of the morning newsletter Pulse. Previously she reported for The Washington Times’ political team, covering elections, Congress and health policy, including the 2012 Supreme Court ruling on the Affordable Care Act.

Cunningham grew up in St. Louis and attended college in the Chicago area, graduating from Wheaton College in 2006. She spent most of her time at the Wheaton Record, where she served as features editor, but made sure she still had time for playing violin in the conservatory orchestra.

Cunningham covered county government for the Naperville Sun right out of college, but when the paper filed for bankruptcy, she decided it was time to move on. She moved to the D.C. area in 2009 to report on Virginia government and currently lives in that state with her husband.