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Statistics show Leafs' playoff chances slim

NHL teams faring poorly at the U.S. Thanksgiving rarely make the playoffs - we checked.

According to statistics, the Toronto Maple Leafs will probably miss the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season. (DAVID COOPER / TORONTO STAR) | Order this photo

By Kevin McGranSports Reporter

Wed., Nov. 24, 2010

Sorry Leaf fans, but according to the numbers, your team is likely to miss the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season.

NHL teams that occupy a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving find themselves in the actual playoffs 77.5 per cent of the time. And that, of course, is bad news for teams like the Maple Leafs, who find themselves outside today.

Call it Bleak Thursday if you want, but teams outside the playoffs today have — at best — a 22.5 per cent chance of moving into a playoff spot based on a Star statistical analysis of the NHL standings back to 1993.

“The statistics, if you look at them just as numbers, they can be depressing,” said Dave Nonis, the Maple Leafs’ senior vice president of hockey. “But I don’t think it has to be the case. We had a team in Vancouver years before. We were out of the playoffs at Christmas, the year we traded for Trevor Linden (2001). We were out by seven or eight points and we made it by a fairly comfortable margin. Things can happen.”

NHL general managers circle the day American families gather to eat turkey — which roughly corresponds to the one-quarter mark of the 82-game season — as the point at which they’ll understand exactly what kind of team they have.

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In the past, they might have made talent-for-talent trades at this point in an effort to turn things around. Under the salary cap, however, trades are made on a much harder dollar-for-dollar basis and they take place later in the season.

The Star looked at the NHL since 1993 – a total of 15 seasons that started in October — to compare the standings on the morning of the fourth Thursday of November to the standings at the end of the season. It predates the introduction of the extra point for an overtime loss (1999-2000) and the shootout (2005-06). The 1994-95 season, which was shortened due to a lockout, was not included.

In that 15-season span, 240 playoff spots were up for grabs. Teams that were in a playoff spot by U.S. Thanksgiving made it to the playoffs 186 times, despite having another 60 or so games to play.

In other words, 12.4 of the 16 playoffs spots were already accounted for by this time. It means, in all likelihood, three or four teams will drop out of a playoff spot this season. And three or four will move in.

But for the rest of the 22, 23 or 24 teams in the NHL, their destinies are laid out for them.

“I don’t think that’s the message,” said retired NHLer Brendan Shanahan, now the league’s vice president of hockey and business development. “You’ve got to focus on that 22.5 per cent, that it can be me.”

Shanahan, the brainchild behind today’s clutch-and-grab-free hockey, likens the race for a playoff spot to a game.

“If you go into a third period leading the game, more often than not, you win that game,” said Shanahan. But if you don’t have the lead, “it doesn’t mean you’re out of it. All you’re thinking about is winning. You’re not thinking about statistics.”

Tampa Bay Lightning GM Steve Yzerman, a disciple of Red Wings GM Ken Holland who preaches the importance of the standings by U.S. Thanksgiving, said the statistics are significant.

“It’s too hard to make up points at the end of the season,” said Yzerman. “Six of eight make it. There’s still a chance if you’re not in that top eight by (the end of) November. It’s a very telling statistic.”

The numbers for the Leafs get bleaker. They have 19 points after 20 games. Teams that had 19 points in the seasons the Star looked at managed to buck the odds and make the playoffs 12 per cent of the time.

Since 1993, the Leafs have been in a playoffs spot on Thanksgiving twice, only to drop out by April. On one occasion, in 2002, they were out of a spot but moved in. That year, they had 22 points at Thanksgiving.

If there’s a bright side for Toronto, it’s that teams that were on the outside and made it in had 20 points after 21 games. The Leafs can get to 21 points in their 21st game with a win Friday in Buffalo.

“I don’t think you need to sell a message to the fans,” said Nonis. “It’s always been the case that teams that are at or near the top after 20 games will be the same after 40 games. Those teams are more likely to move on that to make the playoffs. That’s just statistics.

“There are four or five teams that fall out of there, and four or five that are not in playoff contention that are going to make it. I think we’ve seen some tremendous playoff runs right down to the end of the season and I think it’s been good for hockey.”

In all, 108 teams changed positions — 54 in each direction — in the past 15 years.

After they acquired Linden, the 2001-02 Canucks won 24 of their last 36 games to make the playoffs.

Another celebrated team that went from way out to well in were the 2007-08 Washington Capitals. They had just 13 points on Thanksgiving that year, and required a coaching change to zoom into the playoffs. New coach Bruce Boudreau basically took the shackles off Alex Ovechkin that old coach Glen Hanlon had put on.

“Things can happen, whether it’s a deal, or you get healthy or you find the right combinations to get on a bit of a roll,” said Nonis.

The last time the Leafs were in a playoff spot by this date was the 2006-07 season. They stumbled to a seven-game losing streak (0-6-1) right after Thanksgiving to erase their good start when the bottom fell out of their goaltending (Andrew Raycroft and J.S. Aubin).

Nonis’s Canucks were also one of the few teams to miss the playoffs despite having amassed 30 points by Thanksgiving. That happened in 2005-06, a team done in by injuries to its starting goalie (Dan Cloutier), and two of its top defencemen (Ed Jovanovski and Sami Salo).

“Every team has to withstand injuries, but that is a factor when you see some teams that may fall off, or some teams that make rocket up,” said Nonis. “You can cover for one or two, but if you have long term injuries with your top players, that can have a bearing on the success of your team.”

The magic playoff number seemed to be 21 points. Those with at least 21 points were more likely to make the playoffs. Those with 20 or fewer points were more likely to miss.

The extra point — introduced for overtime losses in the 1999-2000 season — changed very little statistically. In the five seasons before the extra point was introduced, 63 of 80 playoff teams (78.8 per cent) were in a playoff spot. In the five years afterwards, 61 of 80 (76.3 per cent) were in the same spot.

New rules introduced after the lockout – including the introduction of the shootout — also changed little. In the five years since the lockout, 62 of 80 of playoff teams (77.5 per cent) were in a playoff spot by the fourth Thursday of November.

“The teams that have gotten off to a good start are rewarded in some sense, with improving their odds,” said Shanahan. “It doesn’t mean the door is closed, it doesn’t mean they can rest, and it doesn’t mean the teams behind them are out.”

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