Baseball Talk Philadelphia

March 14, 2016

It's Monday and that means it's time once again for a Phillies 97.3 ESPN Monday Mailbag. We take your questions every Monday and then we talk about them during the Sports Bash with Mike Gill on Tuesday afternoons at 2:30 p.m. If you are not in South Jersey, you can listen online at 973espn.com.

Will the injures mean that Nick Williams has a shot to make the opening day roster? ~Bryan

December 01, 2015

In the last few weeks, a few news stories appeared about various political candidates and just how "real" their Twitter followers are. In this Business Insider story, 51% of New Jersey Governor and presidential hopeful candidate Chris Christie's followers were deemed to be real. Secretary Hillary Clinton's Twitter status started the conversation initially, as she has just 65% real followers. Clinton actually has the Phillies beat; the Phillies come in at 64% real followers.

According to Twitter Audit, the service used to track Clinton's and Christie's numbers, followers of the Phillies official account are only about two-thirds real:

The Phillies are not alone among Major League Baseball teams in having fake followers. According to the same service, the New York Yankees have 913,876 real followers, while 604,190 are fake. The Boston Red Sox Red Sox are reported as having 710,294 real followers and 372,472 fake followers.

The Toronto Blue Jays have the worst record: 65% of their users are fake: 496,671 are real, while 607,043 Fake.

But before casting a finger at the teams, there could be an explanation as to why Major League Baseball teams attract a large number of followers. When signing up for Twitter, the service prompts users to begin following accounts. Besides the big-name politicians and big celebrities, Twitter prompts new users to like professional sports franchises as part of the sign-up process.

With companies using bots to make accounts so that people may "buy" followers, it makes sense that those bots would be trained to like some professional sports franchises along the way. So, the Phillies probably did not purchase any followers, but instead are the victim of the follower-buying craze.

This is why the results are rather consistent among the big-name MLB franchises and why the Phillies have such a large percentage of fake followers. If there is any criticism against the Phillies it is that they do not interact with the fans enough. Five Thirty Eight Sports put together a report of Social Media use among all teams.

With 720,000 interactions, the Phillies are very behind the 2.560 million interactions the Blue Jays get, even with the large number of fake followers.

The Phillies were also the only team to show a decrease in Facebook fans. This could be because the Phillies were very active on social media and peaked among their most successful years from 2008 through 2011. This could also be because Facebook seeks regularly to remove fake "likes".

The one way to avoid these fake followers: protect tweets and selectively accept people that are legitimate. But, who has time for that?

March 02, 2015

While we were aware that second baseman Chase Utley sprained an ankle during the offseason, we learned today that Utley is not yet close to taking the field. Utley is in Phillies Spring Training and working on drills. But games will not happen.

Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News reports:

Utley said he won't play in any games this week. Ankle still pretty swollen. It has improved in last week, he said. Still not running.

Utley did not play in Sunday's loss to Division II University of Tampa.

While this isn't a huge red flag, it's not the first time Utley has been down for what appeared to be a minimal amount of time early in Spring where it ended up being much longer until returning to action. It doesn't appear that's the case this time as of right now. Until Utley is ready, look for Cesar Hernandez to get a nice look at second this first week of play.

January 16, 2015

The Texas Rangers emerged as a suitor for Cole Hamels just the other day for the first time in a published report. A report out of Dallas this morning suggests that these talks are ongoing. However, money is an issue.

The Rangers have remained in contact with Philadelphia about Hamels, a person familiar with the process said on Thursday. The stumbling block appears to be money.

Hamels is guaranteed $96 million over the remainder of his contract, which ends with a club option for 2019 at $20 million. The Rangers would need Philadelphia to absorb some of that salary. How much the Phillies would be willing to eat would hinge on which prospects the Rangers would be willing to include in a deal.

The idea of the Phillies eatin money seems silly, since Hamels is priced just right for an ace pitcher in his prime. In fact, James Shields reportedly has a deal on the table that will pay him more than Hamels.

The Phillies would be willing to eat some money, for sure, but if they do, the return better be high. The Phillies already are criticized for wanting too much in a trade for Hamels. Today, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports wrote:

The Phillies say they are open to moving Hamels for the right package. The problem, the rival exec speculated, is that Amaro wants to make the "perfect" deal -- and perhaps needs such a deal to keep his job.

Amaro is not alone in the Hamels talks; the Phillies' former GM, interim CEO Pat Gillick, also is involved in the discussions. The Phillies, though, are in something of a damned-if-they-do, damned-if-they-don't position.

They do not want to waste their biggest chip by making a questionable trade. But they also do not want to risk Hamels getting hurt by carrying him into the season -- remember, Hamels did not pitch until April 23 last year due to left biceps tendinitis.

The risk that Hamels gets injured is enough that it could ruin the Phillies' best chance to rebuild, as they learned last season with Cliff Lee.

It would behoove the Phillies to eat salary if they are goin to get better. The Rangers stifled themselves with contacts like Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and Elvis Andrus. Now they have to pay... in prospect form. With their highest payroll ever in 2014 and mediocre results, the Rangers need Hamels if they hope to make any use of this other high-priced talent.

October 26, 2014

The Phillies have been very aggressive this offseason in terms of number of moves, considering that the World Series is not over yet. You might ask, "Aggressive? Jerome Williams and Grady Sizemore?" These moves may not be the minor moves that they appear to be on the surface. Instead, these moves may be the precursor of some major moves coming.

Here are the moves the Phillies have made thus far:

Outrighted Sean O'Sullivan to AAA; O'Sullivan chose free agency.

Outrighted Tony Gwynn, Jr. to AAA; Gwynn chose free agency.

Outrighted Andres Blanco to AAA: Blanco cleared waivers.

Agreed to a one-year contract with Jerome Williams.

Agreed to a one-year contract with Grady Sizemore.

Avoided arbitration, agreed to a one-year contract with Cesar Jimenez

The first three moves were to be expected. None of those players were in the Phillies' plans. I would not be surprised if O'Sullivan re-signed if he did not find something better. But the other two moves tell more than they appear to on the surface.

Who is going to start in 2015?A Cole Hamels trade may be brewing. The Phillies will not be able to move starters A.J. Burnett and Cliff Lee this offseason due to their previous injuries. David Buchanan is in the mix internally, as is Jonathan Pettibone. One reason the Phillies could have rushed to sign Williams is that they know they will need somebody, anybody, to take the ball every five days.

The Cesar Jimenez signing was particularly noteworthy, too. The Phillies have three other left-hand relievers: Antonio Bastardo, Mario Hollands, and Jake Diekman. Diekman and Hollands appear to be the left-handed future in the bullpen. Bastardo is likely as good as gone. Would the Phillies turn Hollands back into a starter?

Hollands turned heads in Spring Training last season, going from someone who was invited to camp just to get a little flavor, to surprisingly making the Opening Day roster to spending a whole season in the bullpen. Hollands started his whole climb up the minor leagues and could fill a Phillies rotation spot if a trade occurs.

The signings of Jimenez and Williams give the Phillies some options for the future; as players move on, they will be capable to plug some spots in the bullpen or in the starting rotation. The possibility of trades of Cole Hamels, Antonio Bastardo, and maybe Jonathan Papelbon creates holes. The Phillies are not expected to contend, even by management's standards, so 2015 is a matter of having people on the mound to throw the ball.

Who Will Play the Outfield in 2015?The signing of Sizemore seems to be odd, since it locks the Phillies into five outfielders: Darin Ruf, Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, Marlon Byrd, and Sizemore. With the Phillies reportedly hot for Yasmany Tomas, that means there will be too many outfielders. It appears that the Phillies expect changes in the outfield.

Sizemore is not the player he once was but he is indeed a useful player. If the Phillies trade Marlon Byrd and sign Yasmany Tomas, maybe he and Ruf platoon in left field. If the Phillies find a deal for Ben Revere that makes sense, Sizemore can play center capably. If the Phillies trade Byrd and add no one else, Sizemore can play against right-handed pitching.

Sizemore could start, Sizemore could plattoon, Sizemore could be on the Phillies' bench. But with the Phillies continued interest in Tomas, talk of Cody Asche potentially playing some outfield, and the Sizemore signing, it appears some of the heads in the Phillies outfield are ready to roll. Sizemore will give them options.

October 24, 2014

The Phillies have been relatively aggressive thus far this offseason, which technically has not begin yet, since as many as five games of the World Series remain. The Phillies re-signed free-agent-to-be Grady Sizemore and minor league catcher John Hester. Additionally, the Phillies outrighted outfielder Tony Gwynn Jr., infielder Andres Blanco, and pitcher Sean O'Sullivan, and, avoided arbitration with reliever Cesar Jimenez. These were all minor moves, but the Phillies are making many more moves than other teams. It is a sign that the Phillies plan to be aggressive.

Buster Olney of ESPN says that the Phillies plan to be aggressive to the point that they are willing to trade veterans and eat salary:

The Phillies have signaled to some corners of the market that they're going to be ready to deal veterans this winter,and eat money to do it.

Could this mean Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins could be moved? Could more than one of them be moved? All three? It sounds like anything is possible. Though we do not tend to think of him as such, Cole Hamels is indeed at this point a veteran. He could be moved too.

With Pat Gillick publicly stating that the Phillies should not contend in 2015 or 2016, the Phillies are officially waiving the white flag. The Phillies have been criticized in the past for holding on to 2008 for way too long. This may finally be it.

July 22, 2014

The Phillies are open for business and two of their relievers are getting attention from around baseball. This time it is the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers reportedly are interested in left-handed reliever Antonio Bastardo, and perhaps even Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon.

Bastardo is expendable to the Phillies because they have two left-handed relievers in Mario Hollands and Jake Diekman.

Papelbon's heir apparent, Kenny Giles, is in the majors and ready to go. The Tigers signed closer Joe Nathan in the offseason, but he has failed to keep up his form that he had in Texas with the Rangers. Nathan has 20 saves but has blown five and has an ERA of 5.89. If Nathan continues to be unreliable, they may grab Papelbon in the right deal. With starter Max Scherzer facing free agency, the Tigers may not want to let 2014 go to waste.

Phillies ace Cliff Lee returned both to the mound and to to trade rumors on Monday night, in a loss to the San Francisco Giants. While Lee was almost predictably rusty, many scouts were in attendance. In negotiating Cliff Lee's contract, Lee retained the rights to pick nine teams to which he would accept a trade, much like Cole Hamels' contract allows. Lee's, however, makes him virtually untradeable.

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN released the list of teams to which Lee will accept a trade today. He might as well have a full no-trade clause. Lee and his agent have strategically picked the nine teams to which the Phillies are least likely to trade Lee and made them his nine.

The teams are:

Atlanta Braves

Cleveland Indians

Houston Astros

Miami Marlins

Minnesota Twins

New York Mets

San Diego

Tampa Bay

Washington Nationals

Lee's approach is much different than that of Hamels. While Hamels picked contending teams that he could go to and be an instant difference maker towards a championship, Lee has picked nine teams that the Phillies almost absolutely would never trade Lee.

Here's why these teams will NOT trade for Lee:

Atlanta Braves - The Phillies will not trade a Lee-calibur player in-division most likely. The Braves also have little chance of affording Lee.

Cleveland Indians - If the Indians were able to afford Lee's contract, he would not be a Phillie in the first place. Cleveland might be a dark horse candidate for a Lee return, but the Phillies would have to pay most of his salary.

Houston Astros - They are in the early stages of a rebuild. No need for Cliff Lee.

Miami Marlins - This is the team that in the past laid off Billy the Marlin and did not hire an organist to save money. Will they trade for Lee? No way.

Minnesota Twins - The Twins are fledgling. There is no need for Cliff Lee right now.

New York Mets - See the Houston Astros.

San Diego - No money here, either.

Tampa Bay - Definitely no money here.

Washington Nationals - Besides the fact the Nationals are division rivals, the Nats already have arguably the best rotation in the game with Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark. The number five starter, Roark, has been one of baseball's best pitchers since his debut.

So there you have it. No New York Yankees, no Detroit Tigers, no Boston Red Sox... nobody who has a need or the means for Lee. Unless Cleveland wants to bring back another former son bad enough that they'll mortgage their future, forget about it.

June 27, 2014

Some devastating news for the Phillies this evening. According to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, catcher Carlos Ruiz has been placed on the seven-day disabled list. The seven-day disabled list was instituted for those at risk of a concussion.

The Phillies are already without catcher Wil Nieves, who suffered a strain sliding into second base. Cameron Rupp started for the Phillies tonight and Koyie Hill, who has major league experience with the Cubs, had been added to the Phillies roster. To make room on the 40-man roster, Zach Collier was designated for assignment, Zolecki notes.

With poor offensive performances in left field, this is an injury that will devastate the Phillies lineup.

June 13, 2014

Tonight could be the night for Jimmy Rollins to futher cement himself in Phillies history. With one more hit, Rollins will tie former Phillies third baseman Mike Schmidt on the all-time Phillies career hit list with 2,234. A second hit tonight, of course, would make Rollins the all-time Phillies career leader. All eyes will be on South Philadelphia for this one.

Roberto Hernandez (2-4, 4.35) will take the mound for the Phillies. Hernandez has been up and down this season, moreso on the down side. In Hernandez's last start against the Cincinnati Reds, Hernandez went just four innings, allowing four runs. The Phillies bullpen would give up two more runs and the Phillies would fall short, 6-5. Hernandez must be efficient with pitches and go deeper into the game to give the Phillies a chance to win.

The Cubs are countering with righthander Jake Arieta (1-1, 2.50). Arieta has made seven starts for the Cubs thus far this season, since joining the Cubs at the beginning of May. Arieta is coming off a start against the Miami Marlins in which he pitched six shutout innings in a game that the Cubs would go on to lose 4-3. Arieta has not gone deeper than six innings in the game.

Game Notes:

The Cubs are 26-38 on the season, giving them the worst record in the National League. If the Phillies hope to get out of the National League East basement, they will have to captialize upon the Cubs as they did with the San Diego Padres.

Many fans bemoaned the Phillies letting outfielder Nate Schierholtz go after the 2012 season. Schierholtz, however, is batting just .213 with an OPS of .581

Since 2002, the Phillies are 54-27 against the Padres and have outscored them by 83 runs.

Former Marlins catcher John Baker gets the start for the Cubs. Baker's father, Frank Baker, played in the Phillies system as a catcher in the 1970s, once sharing a room with Keith Moreland at AA Reading.