If recent history shows anything, this dismal jobs report will likely be revised downward before too long. From the AP:

The Labor Department also said Friday that the economy created far fewer jobs in the previous two months than first thought. It revised those figures down to show 49,000 fewer jobs created. The unemployment rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent in April, the first increase in 11 months.

I was in the market for about a decade. 1999-2010. It was an incredible roller coaster time, where I could lose or gain a years income in a single day. It ended up being the worst decade in stock history. I sold everything in early 2010 ending up completely flat even with where I started 10 years earlier.

What a waste of time and energy that was. It is such a relief to not care what the market is doing. It was a main driver of my mood many days. At the personal level, it is simple gambling. It has better odds than Vegas, but still just gambling.

Now I only invest in things I affect and control directly. If I'm gonna worry, I want some power to do something about it.

John Stodder said... Leaving aside the politics, it's probably going to be time to buy stocks soon.

My guess is the stock market will pick up if it looks like Obama is going down. Back in 1994, I bought $10K in stocks a few weeks before the election. After the Repubicans won control of Congress, the stock market picked up sharply. It was sweet. It could happen again this year, perhaps even more so if the Republicans hold the House and win control of the Senate. YMMV.

"What is the unemployment rate if you include people who have stopped looking for work? 11% or 12%?"

I've heard it is estimated at closer to 20%.

"I keep hoping the bright side is more and more people are going to figure out who's responsible for this."

The responsibility lies with the confluence of financial interests and government policies that serve them, and the goal is to benefit the financially powerful. The large corporate entities in this country have NO particular interest in improving domestic employment numbers...they make their money globally! As long as a cheaper work force can be utilized elsewhere in the world, they can keep more of their earnings as provit and we eat (with apologies to Marie Antoinette) shit.

Sometimes tradguy can be a little dense or loopy (Trayvon)..but this was a very intelligent and perceptive post:

"traditionalguy said...An hour ago CNN was interviewing their expert economic Robert Reich about every which way this jobs report disaster could be spun as OK and no big deal.

But Reich kept saying there is no way to spin this news. It is a disaster. The CNN guy kept repeating leading questions to the contrary over and over, but Reich stood his ground.

The Clinton Bat Signal must have gone out this week to distance all Clinton guys us from the imploding Obama house of cards.'

I agree. The Clinton "bat signal" has gone out. They see a 2nd term of Obama as a disaster for the credibility of the Democrat Party and the class warfare/anti-capitalist OWS mentality of the Obamites and Pelosi acolytes and Baracks Elites (Hollywood, the Black Mo' Money Brigade Leaders, the Affluent feminists and progressive Jews) as a disaster for the long term prospects of Democrats.

Original Mike said..."Wait- I thought Obama was cooking the unemployment numbers? What's that? These ARE the cooked numbers?"

Yeah. What is the unemployment rate if you include people who have stopped looking for work? 11% or 12%?

===============It's even higher than that when you look closer. And include people long out of the workforce that are trying to join it because taxes and cost of everything is up and hubby lost his job, the retirees now looking for a job that are not included. And if the labor stats were truly honest, they would not include those working against their wishes in part-time jobs and "temp" employee jobs with no benefits as those happily working regular jobs and thus "fully employed".

And two other things all Americans should be extremely worried as social dynamite with potential for violence and riot stemming from present and future job loses, loss of services - are intense local areas of vastly higher unemployment, and the potential for massive job losses and services and entitlement cutbacks in States and cities now all but officially bankrupt.

1. The unemployment rate among black males 18-30 now exceeds 50% in many cities. Another 10% are living in part on irregular catch as you can, temp jobs of low pay. In some hard hit regions - Centralia California, Buffalo NY - unemployment has been above 30% for years.

2. Analysts worry about massive loss of state and municipal jobs in certain states (California, Illinois head the list) as it sinks in that raising taxes is no longer an effective option. Some conservatives may cheer this as healthy in the long-term, but it will make the conditions of millions of people even worst and savage places where the only jobs are government jobs (like the above-mentioned inner cities).

Leaving aside the politics, it's probably going to be time to buy stocks soon.

Every day since I retired as of 12-31-2010, I thank myself for no longer being involved in other people's investments and having to carry the weight of all that responsibility around. If I were in the biz today. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night and probably have an ulcer.

When it became apparent that Obama was going to win the election and that there would be no stopping his assault on businesses, we moved many of my client's portfolios into defensive mode and got ahead of the market drop. I predicted that there would be a withdrawal of the 'serious' money from being in play and that my clients needed to protect themselves as best they could.

All the talking heads poo pooed the idea that it was an Obama presidency that cause this movement, but I know what my clients were saying and what we were doing.

IF it appears that Romney will be able to win and that we are going to pick up seats in the Senate as well as the House, I think the markets will become more optimistic.

As they always say, you can't time the market....however, there is such a thing as being aware of the timing and the political issues that affect the market. I would consider buying quality stocks, dividend paying stocks and industries that would benefit from having the heavy yoke of Obama removed from them. Do NOT buy bonds.

Seriously. A ten yr treasury at less than 1.5% yield. 10 YEARS!! Who would invest in that? A sure loser when interest rates go up....and they will eventually.

Another good place to consider for a nice return is rental real estate. In the right market/neighborhood/town, at a right price and with a good property manager, you could be looking at an 8 to 12% net return. New homes are not going to be flooding the market soon especially with all the new and restrictive EPA regulations. More and more people will be renting for quite some time because they can't get mortgages or because the (hopefully)upcoming boom in new jobs will cause people to move and renting is more attractive.

If you don't want to be THE landlord, you can look at some non publicly traded REITs or listed REITs that are in rental/condo type properties. Those provide a nice return and tax advantaged at that.

Since I'm not licensed any more you can give this advice just much weight as you would any other anonymous yahoo spouting off on the internet.

Alex said... Fucking fantastich! Let's all high five my fellow reich-wing hillbillies and celebrate the demise of America so it benefits the GOPers!

Telling the truth about the dismal economy under Obama is better than telling lies, such as when Clinton and Gore repeated endlessly back in 1992 that it was "the worst recession since the Great Depression", only to have the "official" announcement that the recession had ended a year earlier come out a few days after the election.

Biden and Schultz have claimed that Democrats own the economy. Over 3 years into their term, I'd say they're right.

Alex said... Schultz is right that Rush Limpballs tries to talk down the economy and it's working. Congrats traitorous reich-wing scum.

So, Clinton* and Gore lying that it was the "worst economy in 50 years" isn't talking down the economy but telling the truth about high unemployment is? You don't suppose that at least some of Obama/Biden's campaign rhetoric in 2008 was "talking down the economy?" If not, then you're an idiot.

*What was especially hypocritical was when Bush 43 pointed out in 2000 that the economy was slowing (and it was), Clinton complained that Bush was talking down the economy! What a tool!

And for the record, I'm not happy about the high unemployment figures. Just this week, I cleaned out my office as the job I've held for 17 years came to an end. I now have to consider starting a new career at age 55 or retiring early. Good thing my wife and I didn't live like Democrats and we managed to put away a considerable amount of money just in case this happened.