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Iraq Struggles to Create a New Government

Middle East In Focus

Middle East In Focus

Views from the Region

September 7, 2018

It has been more than three months since parliamentary elections in Iraq and the political factions have still found it impossible to coalesce around a single candidate. Earlier this week there were signs that a U.S.-supported political coalition representing a majority of the seats in parliament would emerge. However, disagreement about the distribution of key governmental and political posts and a concerted effort by pro-Iranian forces in Iraq seem to have, at least for the time being, rendered such a possibility moot. Meanwhile, the political impasse continues to worsen, as reports emerge that Iran may have provided some Iraqi groups with ballistic missiles.

The issue of Iraq’s continued political paralysis was the subject of a recent The National editorial, which underscored the urgency of forming a government that is not beholden to Iranian interests: “The need for a clear direction weighs heavily on a nation riven for years by sectarian divides, corruption and, most recently, protests over failing public services, particularly in Basra, where citizens cannot even access clean water. Until Iraq’s new leaders are sworn in, it can only hope to muddle through a crisis which threatens to envelop the country and provide fertile ground for its weak links to be exploited by those with malevolent intent.... Whatever the outcome, the fractures between the different blocs cannot be allowed to form into fissures deep enough to be exploited by Tehran to build on its own power base. The longer this drags on, the greater the vacuum of power [is] at risk of being manipulated. A definitive direction with strong leadership to protect Iraq’s sovereignty and people cannot come soon enough.”

In an article for Asharq Alawsat, Ghassan Charbel says that while it may appear that Baghdad’s political troubles are internal, in reality Iraq’s fate continues to be in the hands of other countries: “‘The formation of the government practically needs a compromise between Brett McGurk (U.S. presidential envoy for the international coalition against ISIS) and Qassem Soleimani (commander of the Quds Force). It is true that tensions between Tehran and Washington playing out on Iraqi territory are not new. But it's also true that this time they are approaching a bone-crushing battle, in the wake of the crisis caused by the withdrawal of Donald Trump’s administration from the nuclear deal and the U.S. return to imposing painful sanctions on Iran.’... It is clear that the rules of the game are no longer in Iraqi hands. And that the political class lost the opportunity to save Iraq from external players despite resorting on many occasions to the ballot boxes. The logic of the state is still the weakest player in Iraq, and internal and external ambitions have made the violation of the Constitution a normal and acceptable practice.”

Jerusalem Post’s Seth Frantzman agrees with Charbel’s assessment, adding that the creation of a coalition is vital for guaranteeing the future of the country: “Since May, the U.S. and Iran have both struggled to put their allies in the seat of power in Baghdad. Although Abadi and Sadr were not ideal candidates for US allies in Baghdad, the former having been close to Iran in the past and the latter, having fought the Americans, [they] were seen as the lesser of two bad choices in Washington as the Trump administration maneuvered to isolate Iran.... Iraq's coalition building is important. First, it shows that the country is a democracy, whatever its faults. Second, it illustrates how the country is on the fault-line between the U.S. and Iran and how this competition is pulling the country in two directions. Third, it reveals how the Kurdish political leaders have sought to demand that their rights be respected in any coalition agreement.”

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The Middle East Policy Council is a nonprofit organization whose mission is to contribute to American understanding of the political, economic and cultural issues that affect U.S. interests in the Middle East.