Strong monsoon recovery rains hopes on food front

The sudden sharp increase in Southwest Monsoon rainfall for the week ending August 6th 2014 has come as a blessing for the farmers who have been reeling under the threat of a looming drought. The Indian Meteorological Department data released on Friday evening shows that the rainfall for the week ending August 6, 2014 was a substantial 19% higher than the normal rains during the period. This is a substantial gain as the rainfall for the previous week ending 30th July, 2014 was 9% lower than the normal for the period.

Consequently the overall shortage in cumulative rainfall for the country as a whole since the start of the south west monsoon has dipped from 23% on July 30, 2014 to a more manageable 18% by August 4, 2014. Overall it is certainly safe to say that though the rainfall in the current South West Monsoon is still short of the levels received in 2013 it is still better than the rains in 2012.

However the gains from the revival of the monsoon are mixed as the trends vary substantially across the states. Though the overall trends have turned positive with the number of meteorological subdivisions that have registered a cumulative excess or normal rainfall in the current monsoons suddenly shooting up from 15 to 20 over the last one week and the number of subdivisions with deficient or scantly rainfall has slumped from 21 to 16.

Though rains have been in excess in only one sub division, namely Orissa where the total rainfall since June 1st has been 25% of the normal, a lot of other regions have also gained substantially. Important sub divisions which has now received normal rainfall in the current season and which can contribute substantially to agriculture output include East and West Madhya Pradesh, East and West Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Gangetic West Bengal.

The top agriculture regions where rainfall continues to be in deficit include Punjab (-59%), Haryana (-54), Himachal Pradesh (-36%), Western UP (-43%), Eastern UP (-43%) and Bihar (-28%). While the extensive irrigation facilities in Punjab, Haryana and Western UP may help make up for some deficiency in rainfall it will still continue to impact agriculture output.

The prospects of agriculture in peninsular India are more mixed. While Madhya Maharashtra and Vidharbha have had normal rainfall the scenario in Marathwada is precarious with the rainfall being 57% below normal. This would also have implication for the state elections later in the year. The scenario is similar in Karnataka with the Coastal and South Interior Karnataka receiving normal rainfall while North Interior Karnataka registered a deficit of 24%.

The worst affected in the region was Andhra Pradesh and Telengana where all the three sub divisions registered deficit rainfall ranging from 27% to 48%. However, both Tamil Nadu and Kerala continued to have normal rainfall.

The improvement in rainfall bodes well as the water levels in the important reservoirs have also risen. Most recent estimates show that the current storage levels in the reservoirs is about 82% of the last year level and 116% of the average storage levels during the last decade. This is certainly a substantial improvement from the scenario that prevailed in early July and will help limit the anticipated decline in agriculture output during the year. With the IMD having projected a better rainfall in August as compared to July there is certainly reasons for more optimism.