A detailed financial analysis of RTD’s FasTracks plan shows that the six new train lines and other transit improvements could cost $2.5 billion more than originally forecast.

The draft analysis obtained by The Denver Post shows FasTracks trains and other improvements could cost $6.5 billion, almost 65 percent higher than the price sold to metro Denver voters in 2004.

The above-budget items identified in the analysis include almost $1 billion in design and engineering, $345 million in construction materials, $56 million in the price of rail cars and nearly $600 million in unexplained “contingency” costs, among other elements.

Senior Regional Transportation District officials on Thursday dismissed the financial analysis, claiming it was a preliminary review containing errors that was rejected by the agency’s leadership.

Rao said she sent the financial summary back to FasTracks staffers and consultants for re-evaluation.

The Feb. 28 draft shows the east corridor train from Union Station to Denver International Airport costing as much as $1.2 billion, double the original price tag of $620 million, in 2006 dollars.

The same document prepared by FasTracks planners shows $321 million could be saved on the DIA line, but it would still be short $229 million.

For the total FasTracks project, the financial summary identified $1.3 billion in potential savings, leaving a $1.26 billion shortfall.

“They’re redoing everything,” said RTD general manager Cal Marsella, acknowledging that he had not seen the preliminary financial review. “This is how we come to reliable cost estimates. We do not release them until everybody has blessed them.”

Staffers who worked on the FasTracks financial summary agreed that it contained some “double-counting” and other arithmetic mistakes, but they could not identify specific errors.

The recent financial review, though dismissed by RTD executives as inadequate, points to whether agency officials spent enough time, money and effort predicting future FasTracks costs when they presented the $4.7 billion plan to voters in 2004.

The initial cost estimate was $3.95 billion, which translates to $4.7 billion by 2016, when the work is to be done. The $6.5 billion estimated in the draft analysis is based on the original $3.95 billion estimate.

Prior to the 2004 vote, Tom Norton, executive director of the Colorado Department of Transportation, told legislators it would take billions of dollars in additional state highway improvements to make the $4.7 billion FasTracks plan work.

Norton did not return a call for comment Thursday.

To pay for a sizable portion of the FasTracks expansion, RTD asked voters in the eight-county metro region to increase the agency’s portion of local sales-tax collections from 0.6 percent to 1 percent. The ballot measure passed with about 58 percent of voters approving, and the sales tax increase went into effect on Jan. 1, 2005.

RTD plans to combine sales and use tax proceeds with federal transit dollars and other sources of money to construct new train lines from Union Station to Lakewood/ Golden, Arvada/Wheat Ridge, Boulder/Longmont, north Adams County and DIA, as well as a light-rail extension in Aurora’s Interstate 225 corridor.

FasTracks also aims to extend the current southeast train to Lone Tree and the existing southwest train to Highlands Ranch.

The entire FasTracks construction package is scheduled for completion by 2016.

Yet the disparity between original cost estimates and new projected costs calls into question whether the budget and schedule can be met.

One problem RTD is already addressing is the precipitous rise in the cost of construction materials.

“We have experienced significant increases in costs of materials that exceed the inflation factor used in the original model,” Marsella said.

The overall FasTracks project is likely to be short at least $345 million because of escalating costs of copper, steel, concrete and other construction materials, according to the Feb. 28 financial review.

Over the past seven months, RTD officials have been scrambling to find savings on the west light-rail train to Golden.

RTD has identified $113 million in cuts just to stay within the $511 million budget for the west train. Both figures are in inflated, “year-of-construction” dollars.

Work on the west line is due to begin later this year, and trains are scheduled to start running in early 2013.

The recent review did not address the construction timeline, but it highlights differences between estimated costs and the budget presented to voters in 2004.

RTD paid $10 million in fees in 2005 and 2006 to Carter- Burgess and Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas – two of the nation’s leading transportation engineering firms – to conduct cost reviews, prepare cost-containment strategies and do other consulting work on FasTracks.

RTD is paying the two firms an additional $9.75 million this year for the same services.

Officials stressed that the Feb. 28 FasTracks cost summary was prepared by a team that includes RTD employees and consultants.

Parsons Brinckerhoff vice president John Valsecchi, a member of the team reviewing FasTracks cost estimates, said Thursday that he could not comment on the recent financial summary.

“At this point I don’t have reliable numbers,” he said, “and we’re continuing to work on them.”

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