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DTSTART:20171105T020000
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UID:calendar.12774.field_event_date_2.0@philosophy.wustl.edu
CREATED:20171127T171039Z
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: In 2015\, Tomasetti and Vogelstein published a paper
in Science containing the following provocative statement:… only a third o
f the variation in cancer risk among tissues is attributable to environmen
tal factors or inherited predispositions. The majority is due to “bad luck
\,” that is\, random mutations arising during DNA replication in normal\,
noncancerous stem cells.The paper – and perhaps especially this rather coy
reference to “bad luck” – became a flash point for a series of letters an
d reviews\, followed by replies and yet further counterpoints. The aim of
this talk is first\, to briefly explain and describe Tomasetti and Vogelst
ein's argument and conclusions. I then turn to a discussion of why this st
atement was so controversial\, both among scientists and public health adv
ocates. Last but not least\, I discuss why and what sense cancer is a matt
er of 'luck\,' or\, better: probabilistic causal processes. The questions
raised by critics of Tomasetti and Vogelstein concern not only whether as
number and rate of stem cell division in different tissue types account fo
r average differences in incidence\, but whether such statistical correlat
ions are sufficient to explain these patterns. The case thus serves as an
interesting case study in the role of idealized models in scientific expla
nation\, as well as what it means (or ought to mean) to explain population
level patterns of the sort described by epidemiologists. I conclude by co
nsidering some implications of the debate for both primary and secondary p
revention.
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20171206
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20171207
LAST-MODIFIED:20180214T163231Z
SUMMARY:HPSM Lecture - Anya Plutynski\, Washington University in St. Louis
URL;TYPE=URI:https://philosophy.wustl.edu/events/1244
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