Wheat makes gains

Wheat closed higher as the Kansas Wheat Tour continued and saw crops with less yield potential than last year. Some indications are that the crops could be 25% less than last year. Pictures from the tour highlight the lack of moisture and the urgent need for rain in the drought áreas. Support also came from forecasts for little, if any, beneficial rain will be seen in the Great Plains through the weekend. It remains very dry in western section of the Great Plains from Kansas to the south, and these áreas comprise the bulk of the HRW crop. Forecasts also call for very warm temperatures to appear in the western Great Plains this week that could stress the crops trying to make it in the drought áreas. Ideas are that USDA can show more crop deterioration in its updates next week.

Ukraine remains a feature for the market. Exports are flowing with no problems, but traders continue to watch the situation for any changes. There are worries that Ukraine farmers will have trouble financing plkanting, and at least some of these worries appeaer to be justified as Banks are said to be making credit much harder to obtain. Most northern hemisphere Wheat crops appear to be in good condition, with the área with the most problems located in the central and southern US Great Plains.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should get light showers over the weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should get light precipitation this week in southern áreas, otherwise will be dry. Temperatures will be near to below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 736 July. Support is at 717, 709, and 697 July, with resistance at 725, 731, and 740 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 865 July. Support is at 792, 780, and 763 July, with resistance at 816, 822, and 828 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 771 July. Support is at 761, 756, and 752 July, and resistance is at 772, 779, and 782 July.

RICE

Futures closed little changed after a very quiet session. Farmers are offering at higher prices, and bids are improving but finding little interest. Most producers remain focused on planting and not on marketing crops. New crop prices shown by mills are not that exciting for producers at this time as they are covering the cost of production but little more in many instances. Planting progress improved last week in the northern Delta with somewhat drier weather, but will be slow again now as rains return. Producers along the Gulf Coast are done with planting and are seeing some rains, but Mississippi remains behind. Domestic cash markets are quiet. Asian long grain prices are steady.

Overnight News: Some showers the rest of this week, but mostly dry and dry this weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal this week and near normal this weekend.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1560, 1575, and 1584 July. Support is at 1549, 1544, and 1534 July, with resistance at 1562, 1565, and 1570 July.

CORN AND OATS

Both markets closed lower as weather forecasts for planting in the Midwest started to improve. There will be some potential for fieldwork to get done and for crops to be planted on time as drier weather is likely this weekend and into next week. Farmers should be active with fieldwork again in áreas to the south of Chicago as soon as this weekend. Farmers to the north were active with preparations, but there was a lot of rain up there to keep any ouside work to a minimum. The Delta and Southeast should turn drier now after some very big storms the past few days. US producers will work hard to get as much of the crop planted by the middle of May as posible, but need drier weather to get the job done on time. However, planting beyond the middle of May might not be that detrimental this year as El Nino is expected to arrive by the middle of the Summer. El Nino often produces a cooler and wetter Summer for the Midwest. It is likely that Corn planted área can expand from the USDA estimates due to current higher prices and if the weather stays relatively good so that planting can proceed.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 532 and 554 July. Support is at 513, 504, and 499 July, and resistance is at 522, 524, and 530 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 378 and 398 July. Support is at 353, 351, and 348 July, and resistance is at 370, 376, and 380 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

Soybeans (NYBOT:JSN14) closed lower on some selling tied to the failure to make new highs on the charts and as weather forecasts showed improvement for the weekend and next week. More reports of Soybeans moving to the US from Brazil were negative to prices here. Chinese margins are improving, but the country still has a lot of Soybeans bought and in ports, so the overall problems there have not really changed despite somewhat improved cash prices for Soy products. The country will probly stay out of the market for the next couple of months. The improved weather forecast will hopefully become a trend. The US needs some warmer and rier weather to get the Corn and Sobeans planted now, and the forecasts show improved weather is posible for a period well into next week. It will also turn warmer and this will allow for better drying of soils and more rapid planting of both crops. Speculators overall remain very long Soybeans and Soybean Meal on ideas of tight supplies here in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1520 and 1576 July. Support is at 1496, 1490, and 1472 May, and resistance is at 1521, 1532, and 1544 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 508.00 July. Support is at 485.00, 478.00, and 473.00 July, and resistance is at 498.00, 504.00, and 510.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4190, 4130, and 4100 July, with resistance at 4250, 4280, and 4315 July.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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