Thursday, September 07, 2017

Robles up?

Quick on this - there are plenty of ways to look at it from "Well the Nats don't need to play their starters now so there's plenty of time for a guy to get some looks in" all the way to "Bryce is dead. Werth is all but. They need Robles to save them!" What's the truth? Hell if I know

The truth about the OF is that

1) Bryce is hurt. We don't know right now how bad. Nats have the best idea - which can make this call-up seem discouraging but either way Bryce isn't playing for a couple weeks probably so there's some space to fill.

1) MAT is MAT. Despite some flashes in the first half he sits as a below average offensive player right now. Do we accept that is what he is? A low-average, high K, high pop guy with plus D? Or do we cling to a couple months this season as a sign of change going forward? Regardless even if it's the first, as a CF he's fine assuming your corner OFs can produce a little bit more at the plate. That wasn't an issue with Bryce in a corner but he's not there now.

2) Howie is Howie. While that means good at the plate and acceptable in the field, it also means older, injury prone, and unlikely to be here in 2018. By all accounts 2016 looks like the aberration and he's a great fill-in in the OF for the rest of this season. But he's not a long-term solution and the Nats (who are likely to part ways with Werth after this season) could use a good long look at Robles while they have the chance.

3) Werth is not yet back. He hit a homer and everyone said he's back! Well not everyone. Someone said wait until the weekend was over. After the weekend was over it wasn't that clear and a couple games further in he hasn't been doing well. It doesn't mean things can't turn around. It's been like a week! Give the man at least another 2. But if he's hitting THIS poorly (like under .100 going into the playoffs) that could force an issue we never thought would be forced. I've said this constantly - he'll start unless something crazy happens and hitting like .080 going into the playoffs is crazy. Werth is a defensive liability now so you can't take a guy hitting NOTHING and start him. He should pick up. 95% sure he will, but if he doesn't (bc likely just not healed) then what?

4) Goodwin is still a question mark. He hasn't played a full season yet and his non-power numbers (which are of interest because this season in particular seems skewed) aren't good. His D hasn't been special either. At 27 he could be blossoming into some sort of not as good MAT maybe? That could be a solid bench piece but not a starter. You can obviously roll the dice for a bunch of short series but that's what you'd be doing.

5) Lind shouldn't be in the OF. He also shouldn't face LHP. He has his uses and but 5th OF isn't one of them.

6) They'd rather not have Difo in the OF. Not if they can help it. Plus Difo has a platoon issue, crushing LHP and being very modest against RHP. He might work out of it now, but you'd rather not stick him in the OF every day.

I don't know. Seems to me you bring up Robles to see if he can kill it and if he does and someone isn't doing what they need to - then he's a solution. If they all are ok, you didn't really cost the team all that much. The Nats aren't a team overly concerned with starting clocks. They'll do it if it's easy but don't fret about bringing a guy up a little early. Let's face it - it's just a year six+ years down the road when who knows what's gonna be the case.

So that's how I see it - kicking the tires on Robles with the back-burner idea of "if this all goes well and we need him, then he's here"

So psyched to see Robles called up, but he'll have to blow Dusty's doors off to make a playoff roster. Dusty's not going to put his last, best chance at a World Series title in the hands of Victor.

That said, he has the kind of talent to play his way onto the roster and into the post-season and I'd love to see that happen (since it'll justify my not-quite-sober prediction back in April or May). He really is gifted and it's only a matter of reps before he's in the Show to stay.

How 'bout a Robles/Eaton/Harper outfield? A lineup with Turner/Eaton/Robles running the bases? 20 year-olds who walk, play awesome outfield, can steal 40 bases and maybe hit 20+ home runs?

Yep, this'll take some of the yawning out of the next couple weeks........

It looks like they can replace a 60-day DL player (someone on the 40-man) with anyone in the organization.

"Because everyone on the 60-day disabled list is also playoff eligible, this section allows a team to name an injured player ... to the playoff roster, then immediately replace them with a minor leaguer who was not on the 40 man roster on August 31st. This entire section essentially allows for teams to name any minor leaguer that they had in their system by the end of the day today to the playoff roster, no matter when that player was added to the 40 man roster."

"Lind shouldn't be in the OF." But he is, tonight, even with all three of the call-ups here. Surely Stevenson has proven his ability, or give Bautista another try before you wait a few games for Robles to get his bearings and send him in...

Because Robles is a potential impact player and the Nats need to know if he can be that before the playoffs. This isn't about going down the depth chart. It's about figuring out if they have the option of throwing another stud in there in October.

Probably just nitpicking, but does anybody else think that Wieters' swing looks like a 5 year old swinging an axe? Its this this weak, sad, loopy flail of at the ball that usually results in a pop out or a weak grounder if he doesn't miss it all together. I can't call it a "swing" because thats not what it is. It's as if he a barreled up ball would knock him on his ass. The only player with a weaker swing that this guy is Jose "I-run-in-place-after-making-contact" Lobaton. Not much room for improvement I guess when Fred Flintstone is your #2 option....

Ole PBN. I've mentioned to friends a few times....I don't think I can recall somebody so big with so little power. Wieters will routinely get "all" of a pitch and most of the time it dies in the outfield, and very occasionally it barely bleeds over the fence. It really is amazing how little bat speed he is. That---and how visibly bad his framing is---has really surprised me. I would be more than happy to let severino start opening day next year and give him a month or two.

Werth has a hurting shoulder from what I read on the tweeter. Also, Goodwin is done for the rest of the year. If Harper doesn't come back they could be in big trouble with an OF of Kendrick, Taylor, and DeAza. Yikes. I don't think there is any way Robles is on the playoff roster.

My favorite comment re: the Robles call is from Keith Law: "Other team execs count calendar days and Mike Rizzo is all 'F service time, give me Robles!'"

Given that, as Jay pointed out, Goodwin is done for the year and Werth is banged up (apparently from getting hit in the minors during his rehab), our current best outfield is a Lind/Difo platoon in left (karma getting even with us for complaining about Werth's defense, I suppose), Taylor, and Kendrick. If Harper comes back, a Kendrick/Taylor/Harper outfield is nothing to complain about (Howie is a flat upgrade over Werth, after all). Stevenson and De Aza basically hit like pitchers; they exist to give hurt guys a break and to be defensive replacements; there's no way they're going to be the answer on a playoff roster. If Robles can show even a shadow of his potential while Harper is out, then he could win a spot on the playoff roster through basic competence.

@PBN & BX: Wieters drives me nuts. When he gets a fastball and knows it's coming (like the 3-0 one he got last night on his big hit), he can drive it to the gaps. His bat is visibly way, wayyyyy, WAAAAAYYYYYY slower on any non-fastball pitches. All you gotta do is throw junk and he's out. If you can throw a curve for a strike early in the count, it's basically over. On some occasions, he IDs breaking stuff and takes pitches, allowing him to get ahead in the count and open the door to doing a little damage. When he is behind in the count, he is atrocious.