1. David Johnson- improved offense should help. Does it all.
2. LeVeon Bell- OL is sneaky good. Best RB in the league but injury and off field concerns drop him a bit.
3. Zeke- best OL in football
4. ODB- he'll be ranked up here for years. The targets might come down a little.
5. Evans- he'll fix those drops plus he's a yearly double digit TD threat.
6. Antonio Brown- his numbers are going to tail off a little
7. Julio Jones - stud but injury concern
8. T.Y. Hilton- #1 on great offense. Yardage leader last year the TD's will come.
9. AJ Green- safe pick here I could see taking him in front of Hilton.
10. Jordan Howard- elite vision. Looks like the real deal when he plays.
11. Dez Bryant- injuries have slowed him down but Dak's elite and they will developed some chemistry.
12. McCoy- risky pick but I'm not taking lol Freeman here. Maybe Gurley but I have to see how that offense looks.

Yeah I'm not going to "just" look at last years stats and rank accordingly. I'm predicting

Dez has a bounce back year. Big believer in Dak though. All Dez has to do is stay healthy.

Howard is going build on his rookie season. He quietly had a monster year last year and there is no reason to believe he's not getting the ball 230-240 times this year.

McCoy is debatable but he seems inline for 220+ carries and 40+ catches this upcoming year. I mean they didn't add any RB early in the draft and they didn't bring in any big name FA RB. McCoy is their guy this year. Then add how he performed last year it's hard to pass on that at 1.12..........

I've done quite a few mock drafts already (15+) and I would say that for PPR, I'm def. thinking opposite of what I posted earlier in the thread. In a 12 man league if your pick is on the back-end( 9-12) then I think going RB strong is very beneficial. There are a-lot of questions as far as handcuffs and rookie rbs taken over early downs on a lot of teams (williams for gb, mixon for cin, etc.) and I think just locking up go-to RBS that are going to get 250+ reps is the best way to go.
The amount of RB combinations you could pick up is plentiful. Howard, Ajayi, Gordon, Murray, Freeman. You could very well end up with Mccoy here plenty of times too which to me is an absolute steal compared to someone like TY Hilton who could lose a lot of TDS to moncrief this year alone.

If you fill up on two of those RBS mentioned, in the 3rd round you still have a plethora of RBS that are both extremely good depth value and beyond flex worthy appeal: Lynch, McCaffery, Hyde, Ingram, Anderson (I think he can have a breakout season this year).

4th round WRS you'll still be able to get robinson, adams, crabtree, fitz, moncrief.
or you could get kelce at TE then stack WRS and your QB from 5-10

I'm starting a 12- team keeper/dynasty league w/ friends & I need some feedback on the rules.

I was going to do $500 draft budget every year with the rule that you must keep exactly 13 players every year (for free - aka players kept aren't effecting your draft budget in future seasons). However, to help teams that suck I was going to give each teams that doesn't make the playoffs an extra $50 in draft money and probably a bonus if they win ($150 total) or come in second ($100 total) in the consolation bracket.

1Qb/2RB/3WR/1TE/3Flex/1Def/7Bench - total of 18 on the roster

$100 buy in, but you always pay $50 for next years buy-in early - effectively I will collect $150 this year and $100 every year after. If someone leaves the league we keep their $50.

Antonio should always be the 1st WR taken. After that: ODB/Julio/Evans. AJ Green rounds out the top 8 (which obv includes DJ/Bell/Zeke).

After the top 8 is where it gets interesting. For RBs I'm leaning Melvin > Freeman > McCoy >>> other RBs. Of course, folks are likely to spew/reach and someone in the top 8 will sometimes fall. If that doesn't happen and I'm picking 9th-12th I probably take a WR.

As always, no need to draft a QB until way late.

For anyone who does MFL10s, here's an interesting one (the "MFL10 of death") among industry writers that recently wrapped up:

Antonio should always be the 1st WR taken. After that: ODB/Julio/Evans. AJ Green rounds out the top 8 (which obv includes DJ/Bell/Zeke).

After the top 8 is where it gets interesting. For RBs I'm leaning Melvin > Freeman > McCoy >>> other RBs. Of course, folks are likely to spew/reach and someone in the top 8 will sometimes fall. If that doesn't happen and I'm picking 9th-12th I probably take a WR.

As always, no need to draft a QB until way late.

For anyone who does MFL10s, here's an interesting one (the "MFL10 of death") among industry writers that recently wrapped up:

Coming from a Steelers diehard, you don't think Brown loses value with Bryant back and a TE like James taking TD passes in the redzone, along with Bell?
I'm weary of Brown too because I feel it's inevitable Ben will be out 2-3 games this year and he's been terrible on the road lately.

AB will still get his redzone looks - IIRC he even had 1 or 2 short 5yd TD grabs last year while James was on the field.

Ben being out is a bigger risk than Bryant/JJ. If anything the presence of Martavis means that AB gets double-coverage fewer times.

That's not to say I'd begrudge anyone who picks ODB/Julio/Evans over AB - they're all the same tier - just think that AB has both higher ceiling, higher median, and higher floor given what we know right now (and it's only June, of course).

When you all are setting up a league do you ever change the team defense scoring to slightly lower the avg. scoring and/or the difference between an elite Def & a league avg. Def? The goal being that defenses become less valuable, but still worth picking up a new defense every now and then (we aren't ready to completely get rid of Def yet).

I'm thinking of making TDs worth 4, INT & fumble recoveries worth 1.5, sacks worth .5, and lowering the points given in all the categories for points allowed and yards allowed.

Do you think Kelce is going to catch every ball thrown by alex smith, is another KC WR stepping up or is KC not going to throw the ball?

Tyreek is not a WR1 caliber player. A good chunk of his special plays came on situations you will not find a WR1 doing (like special teams). He's also going to run into two-man coverage. Alex Smith isn't the greatest throwing QB btw. They will probably use Charles for a lot of 3D plays as well as Kelce.

Yea there's plenty of WRs I'd rather have in the late 4th / early 5th instead of Tyreek (Diggs, Fitz, Manny Sanders). Crabtree used to be in that ADP range but he's moved up a bit; similar shuffling/movement is bound to happen as the season gets closer.