The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors

The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors

The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors

Synopsis

As the 21st century unfold, the dynamics of population growth, settlement patterns, and movement across borders are certain to have an effect on international security. Demographic shifts in political environments that are already tense as a result of territorial disputes, ethnic rivalries, ideological divides, or environmental stresses may provide just enough pressure to spark a violent conflict or perhaps even outright war.

Excerpt

This report presents a framework for understanding the implications of global demographic trends for international and U.S. national security. One of its goals is to spark discussion between demographers and national security analysts. The document should be of interest to security analysts, demographers, foreign policymakers, and general audiences interested in the implications of demographic trends for international security policy.

This research was jointly sponsored by the Population Matters project in RAND's Labor and Population Program and by the RAND Arroyo Center. A principal goal of Population Matters is to inform both public and specialist audiences about the findings of demographic research and their implications for policy. The Population Matters project is funded by grants from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. This work, inspired by prior research on alternative security futures conducted in the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program of the Arroyo Center, drew only from sources in the public domain.