Can the GOP ‘Inherit Trump’s Friends and Not Lose His Enemies?’

Can the GOP ‘Inherit Trump’s Friends and Not Lose His Enemies?’: Two suburban-Detroit counties in Michigan — Oakland and Macomb — underscore the political forces that propelled Donald Trump to the presidency. The two parties’ future fortunes in those counties will come into focus as we head into the midterm elections, but it’s already clear voters in these counties will likely be the most sought after in the tightest races.

Along a two-mile stretch of road outside Detroit, Republican voters have turned Democratic in recent years and Democratic voters have switched to the GOP, writesWSJ data reporter Dante Chinni. “I don’t see Democrats winning back this county, no way,’’ Ken Sultes, a one-time Bill Clinton supporter who works at the Ford Axle Plant in Macomb County, Mich., told Dante in his report from Michigan, which went for Mr. Trump by a razor-thin margin last November.

Dante emails into Daybreak this morning: The saga of Oakland and Macomb counties in metro Detroit is a story of two counties trading places, reflecting a larger shift in the two major political parties. Oakland, long a home to the area’s upscale Republican population, is diversifying and its wealthy, educated population is trending Democratic. Next door, Macomb, long the home of blue-collar Democratic union voters, is seeing itself growing more Republican. The 2016 elections marked the greatest partisan difference in the vote between the two counties in decades.

Robert Cahaly, a Republican pollster, said that the Oakland County voters represent some of the most moderate in the GOP, with few social conservatives in the area. “Of Republicans who got frustrated with Trump, that was the top rung that got frustrated, the ones that were the most middle-of-the-road moderate,” he told me in an interview. Meanwhile, in Macomb County, “there were people who described themselves as moderate Democrats who were very enthusiastic for Trump.”

Is this trend going to stick around? Stan Greenberg, one of Bill Clinton’s pollsters in the 1990s, says probably not. He believes Hillary Clinton‘s campaign committed “malpractice” in 2016 by not focusing on white working-class voters, and that the Democratic Party will refocus on the constituency it lost. “I think this was exceptional because the [Hillary Clinton] campaign was so determined to avoid appealing to white working-class voters, and Macomb voters were particular,” he said in an interview. “The test of this is how [Sen.] Sherrod Brown runs in Ohio, and how [Sen. Debbie] Stabenow runs in Michigan.” Mr. Greenberg predicted that “Democrats are going to be running flat-out for these working-class voters.”

Mr. Cahaly offered a different view. “If you are a soft Democrat or independent who voted for Trump, then you’ve kind of bought into Trump and Republicans. … But if you’re a Republican who didn’t like Trump and didn’t vote for him, you didn’t abandon the party. So I think it’s a net positive, that basically, the Republican nominee in races is going to inherit Trump’s friends and not lose his enemies.” Here’s what else is going on today:

From Washington:

WSJ scoop: Russian hackers stole NSA data on U.S. cyber defense in one of the most serious security attacks in years, WSJ reporters Gordon Lubold and Shane Harris report. The incident occurred in 2015, but wasn’t discovered until spring of last year, and the stolen material included details about how the NSA penetrates foreign computer networks, the computer code it uses for such spying and how it defends networks inside the U.S.

U.S. lawmakers are dialing up pressure on the Trump administration to expand sanctions aimed at North Korea to dozens of businesses described by U.S. and United Nations officials as components of North Korea’s illicit financing networks, Ian Talley reports. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers and Treasury officials have named more than a dozen other firms and ships they say are also helping fund the Kim regime or abetting in sanctions evasion, but haven’t added them to their sanctions list.

The powerful National Rifle Association signaled it could support some restrictions on devices that allow semiautomatic guns to mimic automatic weapons, easing the way for action since Republicans often follow the group’s lead on gun policy, Kristina Peterson reports. The move comes after the attack that killed 58 people in Las Vegas.

Mr. Trump is expected to refuse to certify that Iran is complying with the 2015 international nuclear agreement, even though many advisers, including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, support staying with the deal. The move would place key decisions about the future of the nuclear deal before Congress, reports Felicia Schwartz.

The Trump administration urged the Supreme Court to dismiss a pending case on the president’s expiring travel ban, which it said was moot in light of new travel restrictions announced last month by Mr. Trump. The administration believes challengers should file new lawsuits against the latest travel ban if they believe it violates their legal rights, while the challengers say the current case isn’t moot.

The GOP tax effort is one step closer down a long path to becoming reality. The House voted 219-206 on Thursday to adopt its version of the budget, particularly important this year because it is the prerequisite to using a procedure called reconciliation, which would allow for passage in the Senate by a simple majority, for a tax bill. Plus: Tax policy reporter Richard Rubin writes that the effort to repeal the estate tax has hit resistance from an unexpected group: some Republicans.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions reversedan Obama-era reading of the Civil Rights Act in a memo this week, saying the Justice Department no longer considers workplace discrimination against transgender individuals to be covered by federal law. Plus: The Justice Department will “reinvigorate” a program to reduce violent crime through partnerships with state and local law enforcement and targeted prosecutions, writes Aruna Viswanatha. The effort comes as violent crime and homicide rates have trended upward, but they remain well below highs reached in the early 1990s.

The Trump administration’s chief trade negotiator plans to propose significant changes to a central aspect of the North American Free Trade Agreement, in a bid to force auto factories in Mexico to move back to the U.S., Jacob M. Schlesinger and William Mauldin report.

YouTube this week surfaced videos peddling misinformation, hateful messages and conspiracy theories to users tracking major news events—prompting the site to change its search results to promote more authoritative sources. For example, the fifth result when searching “Las Vegas shooting” on YouTube late Tuesday yielded a video titled “Proof Las Vegas Shooting Was a FALSE FLAG attack—Shooter on 4th Floor.”

The S&P 500 closed at its sixth consecutiverecord Thursday, its longest streak of highs since 1997. The economy keeps growing at a slow but steady pace, corporate earnings remain healthy and investors are betting a tax overhaul will further boost profits.

Greg Ip’s latest column:Faster growth spurred by tax cuts and other supply-driven factors would be welcomed by the Fed. But the implications for monetary policy aren’t straightforward.

The Labor Department releases its monthly snapshot of the labor market Friday, covering hiring and unemployment in September. Economists project the economy added 80,000 jobs and unemployment remained a low 4.4%.

California Gov. Jerry Brown signeda “sanctuary state” bill, positioning the state to restrict cooperation between local law enforcement and the Trump administration in efforts to deport illegal immigrants.

Reinforcements of French and Nigerien troops were deployed to the remote desert borderlands between Mali and Niger, after three American Green Berets were killed in an ambush by an Islamic State affiliate, regional security officials said.

Israeli police said they had questioned a financier behind Academy Award-winning films about whether he gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gifts in return for favors. The investigation is one of two graft probes into Mr. Netanyahu that threaten his long tenure as Israel’s leader.

Republicans to Consider 'Bump Stock' Ban

Republican leaders in Congress are saying they may be willing to consider a ban on bump stocks, a device used by the Las Vegas shooter to make a semiautomatic weapon mimic a fully automatic one. WSJ's Gerald F. Seib explains why Congress is willing to take this step when it hasn't acted on gun regulation in the past. Photo: AP

HERE’S A LOOK AT THE DAY AHEAD

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION: President Donald Trump hosts a Hispanic Heritage Month event at the White House at 12:30 p.m., signs a National Manufacturing Day proclamation at 2 p.m., meets with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at 2:30 p.m. and meets with U.S. Ambassador to Russia Amb. Jon Huntsman at 3 p.m. Vice President Mike Pence and second lady Karen Pence visit the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to survey storm damage and meet members of the community.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS: The Labor Department releases its snapshot of the labor market for September at 8:30 a.m.