Sunday, March 19, 2017

Today brings word of the first full-scale Scottish poll to be wholly conducted since Nicola Sturgeon fired the starting-gun for a second independence referendum. It's a Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times, and although the datasets have yet to appear, it looks as if the question about the timing of the referendum used identical wording to the last Panelbase poll for the same client a few weeks ago. As I noted at the time, that wording is extremely poor. Respondents are asked to choose between a referendum in "the next year or two", a referendum "in about two years", or no referendum "in the next few years". The latter timescale implies a period of longer than two years, which means that people who want a referendum in three years' time (2020 has, after all, been mentioned as a possible compromise date) do not have an option that represents their views - they're effectively forced to choose an option they don't really believe in. However, within those inadequate confines, there is a roughly even split between those who say they want a referendum within two years, and those who say they don't want one within the next few years - exactly as there was in the last poll.

The combined support for the two 'within two years' options is 50%, while support for 'not within the next few years' is 51%. The apparent incompatibilty of those numbers is caused by the effect of rounding. That suggests support for an early referendum on the raw numbers is fractionally below 50%, perhaps similar to the 49.4% recorded in the last poll - but that would, of course, be well within the standard 3% margin of error, meaning it's impossible to know whether the true figure is a little above 50%, or a little below.

In spite of the continuation of the basic 50/50 split, this isn't a no change poll by any means - there has been considerable movement within the half of the sample that wants an early referendum, with a sharp 5% increase in support for the 'hardline' option of a referendum "in the next year or two" while Brexit negotiations are still ongoing. That figure now stands at 32%. There has been a corresponding 5% drop in support (to 18%) for the more 'moderate' option of a referendum "in about two years", after negotiations have been completed. Ironically, the latter option is closest to Nicola Sturgeon's own stated plans, so almost a third of the population actually feel that she is not moving quite fast enough. You probably won't hear about that on the mainstream media, though.

I don't pay the Murdoch Levy, so in the absence of the Panelbase datasets I'm not sure whether respondents were also asked whether Theresa May should grant a Section 30 order allowing the referendum to take place on the same basis as the 2014 vote. However, there is a Britain-wide ComRes poll out today which asked whether respondents agreed or disagreed with the following statement -

Theresa May should insist that any second Scottish referendum on independence takes place only once Britain has completed the process of leaving the EU.

The results among the Scottish subsample (excluding Don't Knows) were...

Agree : 48%Disagree : 52%

Subsample results cannot be regarded as reliable, of course, but as it happens those numbers are bang in line with the most recent full-scale Scottish YouGov poll (conducted mostly before Nicola Sturgeon's referendum announcement), which found that 52% of the public think the London government should agree to a referendum if Sturgeon asks for one.

Panelbase also asked a voting intention question on independence itself...

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 44% (-2)No 56% (+2)

Some unionists are beside themselves with excitement at that result, taking it as proof that the YouGov poll showing Yes 43%, No 57% wasn't such an outlier after all. Well...up to a point, Lord Copper. It's true that we now have a first non-YouGov poll since autumn 2014 to show the Yes vote slightly lower than the 45% actually achieved in Indyref 1. It's also true that YouGov no longer looks like an extreme outlier, but it is still very much at the No-friendly far end of the spectrum. YouGov's inexplicable refusal to include 16 and 17 year olds in their sample may in itself explain the difference between their findings and Panelbase's.

As far as Panelbase are concerned, there were signs even before today's poll that they might be starting to slot into the No-friendly zone - the previous poll from the firm had Yes stuck on 46%, even though polls from Ipsos-Mori and BMG at around the same time showed Yes surging to 48-50%.

Of the last seven polls conducted by all firms, three (two from BMG and one from Ipsos-Mori) have shown an unusually high Yes vote, two (one from Panelbase and one from Survation) have shown a figure within the familiar range of recent times, and two (one from YouGov and today's from Panelbase) have shown an unusually low Yes vote. It would be totally irrational to conclude on the basis of that evidence that there has definitely been a drop in the Yes vote - the opposite may have happened, or there may well have been no change at all.

* * *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46.4% (-0.4)No 53.6% (+0.4)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each firm that has reported at least once within the last three months. The firms included in the current sample are Panelbase, BMG, Ipsos-Mori, YouGov and Survation.)

70 comments:

What are you going to do if the PM comes back from Europe with single market membership? Or a Canadian style free trade agreement? Or a transitional arrangement that will be in place for several years, effectively maintaining the status quo, while a more long term arrangement is agreed? The SNP will look rather stupid if that happens - proposing that we respond to minimal disruption by creating maximum disruption.

I suspect you'll get your referendum if brexit pans out well. If it doesn't and there is a big shock to the system, forget it - the PM will punt it back into the long grass and justify doing so by saying that we need stability and a chance for things to calm down a bit. In those circumstances, the 2021 election comes into play.

If May obtains a good deal that maintains single market access then there may not be a referendum. However, if we leave it 18 months and there is not a good deal then we won't have given ourselves any time to conduct a referendum, leave and sort out something for Scotland. The two things have to run in parallel albeit the vote won;t take place until the deal is apparent.

If the some of the options you suggest pan out May's biggest grief could come from frustrated Brexiteers not the SNP.

Er no we don't announce a referendum and then wait 2 years to name the date. It takes 9 months to conduct a referendum due to administration. The date will be named once section 30 approved. That will not drag on for more than a few months. So regardless of what kind of deal the UK gets. The referendum will be proceeding. It's not an either or. It's a referendum regardless of the Brexit deal.

The polls are being weaponised. Suddenly a vote by parliament on a manifesto commitment matters less than the opinions of 1000 people on the panelbase data base. That's what the Sunday politics sofa dwellers are saying with a straight face. Even our beloved prime minister is using this argument to make her case.

And what about these tea leaves or polls? I thought the reputation of polls had taken a big hit in the EU referendum and the US Presidential election. These seem solid enough points to challenge the wisdom of this new extraordinary weight being placed on polls.

Second the polls themselves are being intentionally to used to distort the outcomes by framing questions to produced desired outcomes. i.e. ask the timing question in such a way so as you find Jackson Carlaw sitting on a Sunday sofa saying with straight face (and unchallanged by Gordon Brewer) that only 32% want a referendum now. This makes the SNP look like they have jumped the gun which of course is the whole plan from the framing of the poll to the sitting on the sofa.

James - this makes what you do really very important. Sp keep debunking, exposing and clarifying. Thanks.

It's the difference between polls reflecting a snapshot of public opinion and polls commissioned and paid for to deliberately try and shift public opinion.

And THAT is where the polling failed most spectacularly in recent times.

The laughably transparent leading questions and source of them flagged them up as desperation incarnate.

Which is one of the main reasons they failed so utterly to shift public opinion favourably for those who commissioned them and instead began working the other way as every poll became tainted. The net result was nobody seriously trusted them all that much when it came to the crunch.

As the Panelbase poll is the first the conducted entirely after the referendum announcement, it's perfectly possible that there's been a small slip in yes caused by the new vote becoming a real possibility, so people are now thinking about it and feeling less sure. We need more information to say I feel that's what's actually happened of course, but if so its understandable and it's what happened after the first referendum as well. There are serious questions to be answered on the economy, currency and of course Brexit and the new referendum is years away still. Yes clearly does have ground to make up still but we can win.

The FM said the Ref would be about the Scottish people deciding the kind of country they want Scotland to be. The choice is voters choosing their own Government or Brexit with hard line Tory Gov.If people vote No and choose the latter then that is what they will have to live with. Interesting watching the Labour voters siding with a hardline Tory Gov.

They will get their wish if they put themselves over the top yet again as cannon fodder and as a human shield to try and protect Theresa May's increasingly far-right tories from the scottish public's ire.

There will be only one possible endgame for SLAB in that event.

They will end up vying with the wee wullie Rennie party who now only exist to promote and keep wee wulie Rennie in a job giving quotes to his chums in the media.

SLAB will merely be the Dugdale or Sarwar party. Again, happily using every resource they can scrape from westminster to keep themselves in a job and to hell with all the rest.

This SLAB 'model' is best exemplified by the amusing walking cringe and Red tory Britnat Hothersall. He exists only to further his own career and that of his dimwitted MP. He proudly boasts he won the last westminster election in scotland (not a joke, he really does) because by his own twisted thinking he did. He is still in a job and so is that afterthought of a Labour MP.

That's where they are all heading, including their councillors, if they keep this up.

Of course the blue Tories are ahead of Labour. The Tartan Tories are further ahead in the right wing Scotland.Scotland always has been right wing in social attitudes.The Nat sis pretend to be different. They will be exposed like all charlatans.Problem is it takes a while.

You have confused medical treatment with prescriptions! But that is what nat sis do.The real fact is is that Scotland gets a larger piece of the cake to the detriment of others. And nothing is free. The taxpayer pays

Kim Jung Eck and Knickerless announce new Caliphate. The English will be expunged from all walks of life in the Caliphate.The Paisley Slapper will sell tickets for Ibrox. Knickerless will promote heart attack Scotch pies tae her German pals tae reduce the defecit.

Knickerkess and Kim Jung Eck are foreign agents out tae destroy the UK. They are not Jocks like me.Their bank accounts need tae be checked tae see who are the paymasters. Their German accents are dodgy indeed.

Not found anything constructive yet? I never thought you would you come over a a teenager of either sex,you may be a boy or a girl,but definitely no more than 15 years of age.So do your parents know you are on these sites? I judge you so as I've never seen anything of value coming from your "comments" or snide remarks as the correct way to describe the comments.Although you are entertaining I do think you should have adult supervision when on adult sites.

Special old folks home being built near Carstairs for former Nat si losers if immediate transfer is required.We British are a kindly bunch. Lets have a poll for what the home should be called. Go for it James lad.

Wee knickerless scumbag wants tae sell oot the Scotsmen who fought and gave their lives to fight German Fascism.She wants tae hand over Scotland tae Herman the German. She must have a pathological hatred towards the English. She is a wee vomit.

You're a troll, dearie. You're not interested in rational argument. Any time someone tries to engage you in a rational argument, you screech insults in response. Now run along; those green-ink letters to the Dreary Heil won't write themselves.

They will get their wish if they put themselves over the top yet again as cannon fodder and as a human shield to try and protect Theresa May's increasingly far-right tories from the scottish public's ire.

There will be only one possible endgame for SLAB in that event.

They will end up vying with the wee wullie Rennie party who now only exist to promote and keep wee wulie Rennie in a job giving quotes to his chums in the media.

SLAB will merely be the Dugdale or Sarwar party. Again, happily using every resource they can scrape from westminster to keep themselves in a job and to hell with all the rest.

This SLAB 'model' is best exemplified by the amusing walking cringe and Red tory Britnat Hothersall. He exists only to further his own career and that of his dimwitted MP. He proudly boasts he won the last westminster election in scotland (not a joke, he really does) because by his own twisted thinking he did. He is still in a job and so is that afterthought of a Labour MP.

That's where they are all heading, including their councillors, if they keep this up.

This from a tweet a few hours ago was written by Ian Smart. One of SLAB's spokespersons/tv pundits.

"Can't we just jump to @RuthDavidsonMSP being First Minister?"

Remember, that a scottish Labour member and one of their main spokespersons and TV pundits saying that. Just a scant few weeks out from the Scottish Local Elections!!

So why have they lost their minds so completely?

Well, it's no secret that the top of SLAB is filled with people who absolutely DESPISE Corbyn.

This would be the same Corbyn who dropped Dugdale and all her chums neck deep in the shite when he said he would be fine with another Independence Referendum. Something they will NEVER forgive him for.

They want Corbyn OUT by any means necessary.

And it looks like they will use a SLAB disaster at the locals as an excuse to encourage the Blairites back in westminster to do just that. (With a generous helping of yet more plotting involving Momentum 'entryists' which seems to be being hatched with Tom Watson as a rallying point for the anti-Corbyn groupings.)

Think that's far-fetched?

Remember when Johann Lamont dropped westminster Labour in the shite for plotting against her?

This kind of byzantine plotting and blood feuding is neither new nor surprising from the scottish branch.

Dugdale and those at the top of SLAB think there can only be 'progress' when Corbyn is gone.

Something Ian Smart then basically confirms with this in a tweet as well.

"Then the Scottish centre left might finally start its recovery"

He wants to bring the whole thing crashing down about Corbyn's ears and let him take the blame.

So keep an eye out for the 'Corbyn must Go' noises getting deafening again immediately after the scottish Local elections.

You're a troll, dearie. You're not interested in rational argument. Any time someone tries to engage you in a rational argument, you screech insults in response. Now run along; those green-ink letters full of impotent rage to the Dreary Heil won't write themselves.

Yes vote down right now due to people wanting to wait and see what Brexit looks like, ie question asks them right now do you want to be independent.

What's interesting is the near 50% that want a ref in the next two years. Now not all will be potential yessers, some will be the as a unionist blogger described 'the bring it on brigade' or the Wendy's .....Nicola was right to call it as it has put pressure on may and has also given a signal to Europe

Labour in Scotland appear to want to return to the politics of Tory or Tory Light because that is what works in England.At least Corbyn has a few different policies to offer people.Their only hope is that English voters elect a Labour government (not in my lifetime) which will give their diminished position here in Scotland greater importance as is the case with Blundell and the present English Tory government.As a colonial governor,you get all the backing of the state in order to fight the democratically elected representatives of the Scottish people,whereas as a single MP....nada.

Article 50, 29 March 2017. The start of getting rid of EU political nonentities. Wee nae knickers better get the finger oot if she wants to be a member of the 4th Reich and sell our country out tae the Bundesbank and Bruxelles.Union flags to be raised in all UK public buildings and bonfires lit across the nation in celebration. Aye.

Knickerless in a wee fitt over not being told the brexit date. She is a woman ofno importance. She would have been on the phone tae Germany immediately. Angela (grovel) they English bastards are gonny announce the brexit thingy.Dinnae worry nae knickers ve hav vays of sorting the Englander.Thanks Angela can we stay in the EU. Nae borra ataw Knickerless ve vill run yar wee country hen.Aw thanks Angela (double grovel).