The State of the Marathon

Despite a stellar race in Boston, there are plenty of unknowns about the marathon less than a year before the Olympics.

It's an unusual time in professional marathon running. Only one woman has broken 2:20 since 2008, Sammy Wanjiru is dead, Haile Gebrselassie swings between greatness and implosion, and a first-timer ran 2:03 in Boston. It's not business as usual.

By the time this article is published, there will be slightly less than a year until the Olympic marathon, which is both the most important and most unpredictable marathon in the world.

Between then and now, three distinct racing periods loom: this summer's world championships, the fall marathon season, and the spring 2012 marathon season. If history is a guide, these three campaigns will reveal a great deal about the state of marathon running as the Olympics approach. Is women's marathoning indeed in a funk? Will the men continue to redefine marathon racing or flounder in Wanjiru's absence and Gebrselassie's decline?

AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM

A bundle of American marathoners may contend at the Olympics in London, but unlike the rest of the world, they will hardly race before then. The main contenders are women: Shalane Flanagan, Desiree Davila, Kara Goucher and Magdalena Lewy Boulet. The leading man, Ryan Hall, has a well-demonstrated talent for running fast but has finished higher than fourth only twice in his eight career marathons (and one of those was against an American-only field). The women, by contrast, have both PRs that put them close to contention and credible resumes of top international finishes.

That none of the Americans except Meb Keflezighi, who will take a payday in New York this fall, will appear in any of these three racing periods is a function of scheduling: The American Olympic trials race in Houston, in late January, effectively keeps American contenders from racing in either the fall of 2011 or the spring of 2012.

(Top Americans and most elite international men traditionally avoid the world championships marathon. Even a victory there doesn't pay as well as success at a marathon major; elite women seem to race the world championships anyway.) As a result, beyond their efforts at shorter distances, we will probably know little more about the American chances until the first and last days of the Olympic Games next year.

WHENCE THE WOMEN?

It's tempting, and has been for some time, to speak of a changing of the guard in women's marathoning. The four great marathoners of the current era--Paula Radcliffe, Catherine Ndereba, Deena Kastor and Mizuki Noguchi--are nearing the end of their careers, if they're not already there. The problem, of course, is that a new guard hasn't yet emerged. Radcliffe and Kastor gingerly returned to racing this spring after giving birth, and Noguchi is reportedly training again at full strength after a long hiatus due to injury. Ndereba hasn't raced well since the last Olympics, but she's better at medaling in championship marathons (two Olympic silvers, two golds and a silver at the world championships) than any other marathoner ever. Barring a stoppage of time, it's unfair to expect these women to control the London Olympics like the two Olympics prior. The youngest of the bunch, Noguchi, will be 34 on race day, and the eldest, Ndereba, 40. But if not them, then who?

A year out, the obvious choices are Liliya Shobukhova, the two-time Chicago champion from Russia, and Mary Keitany, the London Marathon winner, world half marathon record-holder, and the first woman in more than two years to dip below the 2:20 barrier. (When Keitany ran 2:19:19 in London this spring, Shobukhova PRed in 2:20:15.) But an even more likely scenario is that a runner who is merely good--a woman with a PR in the mid-2:20s and some level of success at a major or two--will have a career day and walk away with an Olympic title. After all, obvious favorites seldom win the Olympic marathon. The smart money, then, is on Keitany or Shobukhova, plus whoever arrives in London with a bit of momentum. Which is to say, keep your eyes open for young runners on the upswing.

HERE ARE THE YOUNG MEN

The world's best men are in a mostly opposite situation: Rather than aging and tiring, they're young, fast, and run with no fear. Since 2007, speeds in the marathon and half marathon have been rocketing upward, even while times at 5,000m and 10,000m have stayed relatively stable. Of the several explanations (training, doping, bigger financial incentives, and relative youth are among the most popular) the likeliest candidate is probably a change in attitude: Marathon runners no longer accord the distance any special respect, and they race it from the first mile.

As recently as 2004, winning a championship marathon wasn't only about speed. Championship marathoners, like two-time worlds winner Jaouad Gharib, whose PR at the time of his world titles was above 2:07, could often get by with good but unremarkable personal bests, and rely on some combination of experience and racing savvy in races that were tactical more often than they were fast. With the exception of the New York City Marathon, the tactical marathon has vanished. Or rather, the tactic is to run all out, rabbits or not. The men's world championships marathon, even without a roster of top men, could be the year's most telling race: Is the new style of racing limited only to men who can run 2:04, or will second-and third-string athletes run themselves off their feet to run 2:06 in South Korea's summer heat?

However Sammy Wanjiru is remembered, his hot-weather 2:06 in the 2008 Olympics will be his professional legacy. Five more men joined the sub-2:05 club in the spring of 2011, and it now appears that London could dawn with a world record below 2:03:30 or even below 2:03. The men who ran aided 2:03s at Boston will target the legal world record by next spring. Boston winner Geoffrey Mutai will probably try in Chicago, then focus on Olympic gold. Moses Mosop and his coach, fresh off world track records at 25,000m and 30,000m in early June, believe Mosop can run somewhere in the 2:02s within the next year; he's slated to run Chicago.

For years, purists have wailed about rabbits and lightning-fast courses and the loss of competitive instinct. If the next year unfolds along the path that Wanjiru cleared, the purists might find themselves righter than they ever imagined. Going fast in a marathon, we may find, has everything to do with racing.

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