Australian horse racing tips, news & info

Sprint to oblivion?

Breeding selections pose threat to hardy Thoroughbred stayers

SPEED MERCHANT, NATURE STRIP

In Australia, where there is an emphasis on early two-year old speed, there were almost twice as many C:C horses among elite race winners in the population compared to Europe and North America (46% compared to 26% and 28%) and there were almost seven times as many C:Cs as T:Ts within the Australian population.

(LITTLE WONDER WE CAN PRODUCE SOME OF THE GREAT SPRINTERS OF THE MODERN ERA, WITH SO MANY C:C HORSES BRED IN AUSTRALIA, BUT THIS ALSO CLEARLY EXPLAINS WHY WE CANNOT PRODUCE HIGH QUALITY STAYING HORSES IN THIS COUNTRY. WINX ISN’T A STAYER EITHER BEFORE YOU GO FOR THAT ARGUMENT, SHE’S A MILER / MILE & A 1/4 HORSE. YES SHE WON A 2200M GROUP 1 QLD OAKS, BUT THAT WAS ON SHEER CLASS, AGAINST A WEAK FIELD, NOT ON STAYING ABILITY. TRUE STAYERS HAVE TO BE ABLE TO RUN 2400M-3200M+ IN A STRONG FASHION. OUR RACES DON’T CATER FOR STAYERS EVEN IF THEY DID – THE RACES WOULD BE FULL OF HACKS WHO CAN’T WIN ANY QUALITY OF RACES, SIMILAR TO WHAT BECOMES OF FLAT HORSES WHO FAIL THEN TURN TO JUMPING IN AUSTRALIA, OUR LOCAL BREEDING INDUSTRY DOESN’T BREED STAYERS, THEY BREED THE “C:C HORSES” AS MENTIONED IN THIS ARTICLE)

The hardy Thoroughbred stayer could become a thing of the past according to researchers, after findings published this week point to the importance of the so-called “speed gene” in determining race distance.

The findings are said to end any dispute over the central role of the “speed gene”.

However, the research has relevance for the wider Thoroughbred population, given the major influence of the gene.

“Since there is just one gene that is a major player in the sprinting versus staying stakes, it is extremely vulnerable to selection pressures,” says Associate Professor of Equine Science, Emmeline Hill, who is with University College Dublin.

“This has been recognised by the concern in the industry over the potential reduction in genetic diversity by favouring precocious, commercially attractive horses.

“This concern is well justified; the staying type is at serious threat of extinction in the global population.”

WAS SHOCKING’S MELBOURNE CUP WIN IN 2009 THE LAST TIME WE’LL SEE AN AUSTRALIAN BRED HORSE WIN THE WORLD’S / AUSTRALIA’S GREATEST STAYING RACE – THE MELBOURNE CUP???

Staying types have been found to make up less than 17% of elite race winners in Britain and Ireland and less than 7% of the Australian elite winning population.

“This is a complete reversal from the picture of genetics of the Thoroughbred 150 years ago.”

Hill says it is important that the industry incentivises the breeding and racing of stayers to ensure their ongoing viability in the industry.

Hill led the latest research into the gene, published this week in the Equine Veterinary Journal.

For the study, the genetic and race records of more than 3000 Thoroughbred racehorses who raced in Europe, Australia, South Africa and the USA were analysed. It was found that the myostatin gene, or speed gene, is the almost singular genetic determinant of a horse’s optimum race distance.

The notion of a single gene being responsible for a performance trait in Thoroughbreds has previously been challenged. However, Hill said the new study ended any dispute over the central role of the speed gene.

FIGURE #1

“We have replicated and validated our original research findings on a massively larger scale. The power in the numbers has shown that the association of the ‘speed gene’ with race distance is as statistically strong as the most highly genetically influenced traits in humans, including eye colour and the probability of an individual going bald,” she says.

The study found that, in Europe, more than 83% of ‘speed gene’ type C:C (sprint) horses had an optimum race distance of a mile or shorter and more than 89% of T:T (staying) horses ran best over distances greater than a mile. (Full details for all regions are in Figure #1)

The trend was consistent across all race regions but the race pattern influenced the distribution of the speed gene types.

In Australia, where there is an emphasis on early two-year old speed, there were almost twice as many C:C horses among elite race winners in the population compared to Europe and North America (46% compared to 26% and 28%) and there were almost seven times as many C:Cs as T:Ts within the Australian population.

The main differences between sprinters and staying type horses has been shown to be caused by a mutation in the speed gene that alters the rate of muscle growth and fibre type differences in the muscle.

Although myostatin is the most important gene, the latest research has also identified additional genes which have moderate effects on the staying ability of a horse.

Hill says the application of genetics to decision-making about how horses were trained and raced is transforming the industry.

“Our results clearly show that using evidence-based science will lead to more accurate placing of horses in races that are best suited to their genetic potential. Horses are a product of their inherited genetic characteristics as well as the environment.

“The management of the horse is inarguably key in any horse’s success, but DNA differences are the undisputed differences that make them individuals. This genetic information is leading to horses being trained and raced for their genetic potential and is providing a clear economic advantage to owners and trainers,” she says.

Hill, who is also chief science officer at Irish equine science company Plusvital, which provides genetic testing for horses, says the company does not operate its testing services in the sales environment which could further accelerate this trend toward sprint types at the expense of stayers.

“However, it is essential that the industry incentivises the breeding and racing of stayers to reduce the pressure to breed for the sales ring.”

Kentucky Derby 2019 Radar:

Walking Thunder stars in Dubai

The Phoenix Ladies Syndicate, an offshoot of the Phoenix Thoroughbreds group that campaigns Belmont Stakes runner-up Gronkowski, is right to have some Triple Crown race dreams of its own after Thursday’s $100,000 UAE 2000 Guineas Trial.

Walking Thunder moved his record to 3-for-3 in the most impressive fashion, showing gate speed from the outside and No. 15 post position, stalking the pace and taking over as they turned for home.

The Violence colt went on to win by nine lengths at Meydan, setting him up to continue on toward the March 30 UAE Derby (G2), which awards 2019 Kentucky Derbyqualifying points on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the Top.4 finishers.

“He’s a different class horse,” said trainer Ahmed bin Harmash. “…It looks like the horse can travel the Derby distance.

Bin Harmash also conditions for Phoenix Ladies the 3-year-old Superior, another winner during his juvenile season at Meydan who could point toward races such as the 2000 Guineas (G2) on Feb. 7 and UAE Derby.

Walking Thunder, a Florida-bred purchased for $42,000, was off at 3-1 on the U.S. tote Thursday. His victory came at the cost of Royal Marine, a Group 1 winner for Godolphin on the turf who broke while odds-on. Royal Marine raced wide to avoid some of the kickback but did so at one pace, finishing fourth.

As for the winner, jockey Connor Beasley said he let Walking Thunder “find his feet” from the outside post. Kicking away from the gate, the colt crossed over all but one in the field, the pace-setting Power Link.

“As soon as I asked him off the bend there, he felt like he put it to bed in two strides, to be honest,” Beasley said. “He’s just so very professional in his mannerisms — the way he goes to the start, just everything. I haven’t rode many good horses, but to me he feels like a good horse.”

Walking Thunder completed a one-turn mile on the Meydan dirt in 1:38.43.

“Off that, I’d dare say,” said Beasley, asked if the horse can go even farther. “Obviously it was a bit of a question mark these two runs previous. Today he settled a lot better just having a bit more of a rein. I’d say…he never stopped, and I couldn’t pull him up after the line.”

HERE’S AN ARTICLE WRITTEN ON DECEMBER 17 LABELLING HIM A KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDER.

HOW RIGHT MIGHT AUTHOR JONATHAN LINTLER HAVE BEEN. THE WORLD IS TRULY HIS OYSTER & HE THRIVES ON THE DIRT!

Kentucky Derby 2019 Radar:

Walking Thunder rises in Dubai

Whereas Phoenix Racing made an impact on the 2018 Triple Crown with Gronkowski second in the Belmont Stakes, the Phoenix Ladies Syndicate, an offshoot designed to increase female participation in Dubai, could have a 2019 Kentucky Derby prospect or two on its hands.

Walking Thunder, a son of Violence trained by Ahmed bin Harmas, is 2-for-2 after striking Dec. 6 in a 1-mile race at Meydan. Next, the colt will target the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) on Feb. 7, according to the latest batch of Dubai Racing Club notes.

Superior, also a debut winner for Phoenix Ladies, will contest January’s 2000 Guineas Trial, keeping stablemates separated on the lead up to the UAE Derby (G2), which on March 30 awards Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 100-40-20-10 basis to the Top 4 finishers.

“Part of the plan was for him to get an education — put him behind and take the (kickback) to see if he could handle it before he faces it in bigger races,” Amer Abdulaziz, principal of Phoenix Thoroughbreds, said of Walking Thunder’s most-recent effort. It followed a seven-furlong debut win, with the UAE 2000 Guineas a next step.

Jockey Connor Beasley “did an amazing job and kept him in the right place and then he just took off,” Abdulaziz added. “It was very impressive. The Phoenix Ladies have some very good young horses and we also look forward to the older Phoenix big guns coming for the Carnival.”

Those big guns, by the way, are Gronkowski and Axelrod, the soon-to-be 4-year-old colts who will prep locally for runs in the Dubai World Cup, also on March 30. Axelrod has one more domestic start to make in Santa Anita’s Dec. 26 Malibu Stakes (G1) before both horses are turned over to trainer Sandeep Jadhav in Dubai.

Gold Town won the 2018 2000 Guineas before heading into a UAE Derby matchup with Mendelssohn, who romped. Before that, Thunder Snow completed the 2000 Guineas-UAE Derby double in 2017.

Beasley told the Dubai Racing Channel after the Dec. 6 victory that Walking Thunder’s “attitude is unbelievable for a 2-year-old who’s only run twice.” Pamela Cordina, of the Phoenix Ladies syndicate, added that, “He has us dreaming of some big targets during the Carnival and with luck we can win some nice races.”

Both Walking Thunder ($42,000) and Superior ($50,000) were relatively cheap purchases as 2-year-olds at the Ocala Breeders’ Sale last April. We’ll see moving forward if they can hang with the likes of Royal Marine, a Godolphin runner — and already a Group 1 winner — who could also target the UAE Derby.

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Dubai World Cup Carnival 2019

The Dubai World Cup Carnival, worth more than US$10 m in prize money across 10 race meetings, runs from January to March every year and is a season of high-class international race days contested by the most high-profile owners, trainers, horses and jockeys in the world. It runs alongside the domestic Racing at Meydan season.

The Dubai World Cup Carnival leads to the Dubai World Cup day, the richest day of racing in the world.

The major prep for Dubai World Cup day is the Super Saturday meeting, to be held on Saturday March 09, 2019. Super Saturday allows trainers to put the finishing touches to their equine stars before appearing on racing’s biggest stage – Dubai World Cup day. As the official dress rehearsal for the Dubai World Cup it is a major social occasion.