target="blank">Emmys 2013

Gold Standard: Early predictions for Emmy Awards

Will "Breaking Bad" finally win a series Emmy? Will "Modern Family" ever lose one? Are voters ready to go all in on Kerry Washington and Louis C.K.? We offer some answers and thoughts, but since it's early (very early), these predictions will likely be tweaked before the Emmys are awarded on Sept. 22. Because in our heart of hearts, we think "Breaking Bad" deserves that tip of the (porkpie) hat and find it hard to believe that everyone just doesn't agree.

DRAMA SERIES

The nominees:

"Breaking Bad" (AMC)

"Downton Abbey" (PBS)

"Game of Thrones" (HBO)

"Homeland" (Showtime)

"House of Cards" (Netflix)

"Mad Men" (AMC)

Should win: "Breaking Bad"

Will win: "House of Cards"

Analysis: "Homeland" had too many detractors this season to repeat. "Mad Men" won't return for, by its standards, a weak season. Time for voters to finally give "Breaking Bad" its due? Yes, but they might save that thought for next year with the show's last season. We'll go with "House of Cards." For now.

Analysis: Paul won last year, even with fellow "Breaking Bad" nominee Giancarlo Esposito on the ballot. It's possible that such a scenario could repeat, with the deserving Banks winning. But we sense a split vote giving Patinkin the Emmy.

Analysis: Dame Margaret has won twice for this role, and you have to believe some voters are feeling a small amount of fatigue with the performance. Gunn has never won, and this year she'll submit an amazing episode ("Fifty-One," in which Skyler walks into the pool) that should put her over the top.

Analysis: Comics playing fictionalized versions of themselves — Larry David, Jerry Seinfeld — have been nominated but never taken this category, unless you count Ray Romano. But C.K. took his acting to another level this season with the three-episode "Late Show" arc and the "New Year's Eve" finale. We'll give him a slight edge over Parsons, though Jon Cryer's win last year gives us pause with that pick.

Analysis: It's hard to argue against Fey, as sentiment will be on her side for "30 Rock's" terrific farewell season. But Louis-Dreyfus took her "Veep" character to a deeper level this season, establishing an emotional connection to go along with the comic pratfalls. She has never been better.