GOP analysis: Voter frustration high

The latest edition of the POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll finds that the political environment should continue to be a cause for concern for President Obama. Fully sixty percent (60%) of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, including a strong majority of Independents (61%) who hold this negative view of how things are going in the country. On a more qualitative level, the most common emotions that voters select to describe their views about the direction of the country are concerned (33%) and frustrated (21%). For many voters, their decision on re-electing a President is a referendum on both the direction of the country and their views about their personal situation. Right now, a significant amount of the electorate has a negative view on both of these metrics.

Despite the historic military triumph in the days before this survey fielded, voters remained overwhelmingly focused on pocketbook issues like the economy and jobs (28%) and government spending and the budget deficit (20%). While President Obama’s job approval rating has received an expected bump to majority support (52%), the data on his handling of these critical issues indicate a significant vulnerability. Strong majorities of voters disapprove of the job performance of President Obama on the economy and jobs (57% disapprove) and on the federal budget and spending (61%). Similarly, in the judgment of voters of who is more capable of handling these critical issues, President Obama enjoys only a four point advantage over Congressional Republicans on jobs (47%-43%) while Congressional Republicans enjoy a three point advantage over President Obama on controlling the deficit (47%-44%).

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Ronald Reagan swept to victory in 1980 against an incumbent President presiding over a troubled economy by asking them to consider if they are better off now than they were four years ago and offering them an optimistic vision for the future. This data indicates there is a clear opportunity for the GOP Presidential nominee to run this playbook again. A majority (57%) of voters indicate they are extremely (18%) or very worried (39%) that the country will suffer another economic downturn in the near future that will have a negative impact on their family. Those negative feelings about the current economy of voters turn even more pessimistic when asked about the longer range future, fully seventy-four percent (74%) of voters believe that the next generation will not be better off economically. This economic anxiety and pessimism is a toxic combination for an incumbent President, and time is running out for the President to change that dynamic in his re-election bid. During the next few months, he will be at empting to reassure voters just as the GOP Presidential nominating process will be gaining steam strongly focused on the weakness of the economy and the culpability of the President for this dire economic situation our country finds itself in.