Two economic historians, Barry Eichengreen of the University of California at Berkeley and Kevin O’Rourke of Trinity College, Dublin, have provided pictures worth more than a thousand words (see charts).* In their paper, Profs Eichengreen and O’Rourke date the beginning of the current global recession to April 2008 and that of the Great Depression to June 1929. So what are their conclusions on where we are a little over a year into the recession? The bad news is that this recession fully matches the early part of the Great Depression. The good news is that the worst can still be averted.

First, global industrial output tracks the decline in industrial output during the Great Depression horrifyingly closely. Within Europe, the decline in the industrial output of France and Italy has been worse than at this point in the 1930s, while that of the UK and Germany is much the same. The declines in the US and Canada are also close to those in the 1930s. But Japan’s industrial collapse has been far worse than in the 1930s, despite a very recent recovery.

Second, the collapse in the volume of world trade has been far worse than during the first year of the Great Depression. Indeed, the decline in world trade in the first year is equal to that in the first two years of the Great Depression. This is not because of protection, but because of collapsing demand for manufactures.

Wolf goes on to note the difference is that the response from governments has been massive and far beyond that which occurred during the Depression. Based on that fact, he contends that the jury is out as to whether we continue to closely track the experience of the 1930’s. He feels that the crucial element will be the ability of government to continue to stimulate economies and not pull the plug too quickly, nor let stimulus linger too long.

Wolf is not in the “green shoots” camp. He thinks that anyone who sees recovery in the private sector at this point in time is deluding themselves. A long hard climb out is what he expects to be the economic recovery road.

I don’t disagree with much of what he has to say and certainly it conforms to what a lot of other pundits are suggesting. I do think the similarities with the Depression are worth noting and probably should alert us to the fact that we may well indeed be exposed to the same sort of cataclysmic event if policies mistakes are made. At the same time, I think that the comparison can be overdone.

It’s a much different world now with at least a partial understanding of the mistakes that made the Depression so bad. Presumably that leads to fewer errors of judgement. By and large most of the world’s developed economies are working in concert this time instead of trying to export the downturn so individual stimulus efforts are not being undercut by contrarian policies from abroad. Finally, I think that the superior information systems that we now have make managing through this easier. Manufacturers were able to quickly shut down production as the extent of the downturn became evident thus avoiding a disastrous accumulation of inventory. Likewise, they should be able to ramp up production smoothly as demand does return, resulting in less of a start-stop recovery.

It is a long road ahead but we do have some advantages they did not have in our grandparents day. Unfortunately, our politicians are probably no more adept at making good choices than theirs were. That particular piece of the puzzle hasn’t improved at all.

I’m not sure that credentials mean much when it comes to writing about things but people seem to want to see them, so briefly here are mine. I have an undergraduate degree in economics from an undistinguished Midwestern university and masters in international business from an equally undistinguished Southwestern University. I spent a number of years working for large banks lending to lots of different industries. For the past few years, I’ve been engaged in real estate finance – primarily for commercial projects. Like a lot of other finance guys, I’m looking for a job at this point in time.

Given all of that, I suggest that you take what I write with the appropriate grain of salt. I try and figure out what’s behind the news but suspect that I’m often delusional. Nevertheless, I keep throwing things out there and occasionally it sticks. I do read the comments that readers leave and to the extent I can reply to them. I also reply to all emails so feel free to contact me if you want to discuss something at more length. Oh, I also have a very thick skin, so if you disagree feel free to say so.

Enjoy what I write and let me know when I’m off base – I probably won’t agree with you but don’t be shy.