How much of it would *you* (RayVT) put into an unhedged-long buy & hold position on the S&P, with the backward-looking wisdom & awareness of typical S&P drawdowns, versus "life happens" potentiality of needing to raid it for junior's uninsured skateboarding incident?

Is it just me, or is Dwdonhoff changing his argument after presented with real world returns?

Your question is unanswerable with the information given. Are we talking about a married couple? Two incomes? Job risk? Total assets?

Personally, we were nearly 100% all in stocks with maybe $50k in an e fund. In 2007, I started shifting our allocation knowing we would retire some day.