Excuse me if i'm missing something but isn't this a bit of a pointless question. Which team is going sit on a full working ship (100%) and not launch? This is a competition and there's no second prize.

By definition, no team apart from scaled has a vehicle they think could go up yet simply because they haven't yet launched.

I haven't seen much of STC but the latest updates i've seen put them way behind the field.

Again, Candian arrow don't give much info away but they do say they are going to start tests in august, I just wonder whether this is a Da Vinci style announcement though.

I don't think that there are many teams any where near 100%, as far as I can tell that's only Armadillo and Canadian Arrow that APPEAR close. That does not mean necessarily that they are going to be the first to get to 100%. Many teams are good at talking up their chances so it is difficult to tell what is the truth.

Excuse me if i'm missing something but isn't this a bit of a pointless question. Which team is going sit on a full working ship (100%) and not launch? This is a competition and there's no second prize.

That's easy, any team fighting the red tape could be forced to sit on a full working ship and not launch.

Although I think despite that Scaled is the only team with a fully assembled ship. I would say that my favorite Armadillo has 3/4 of a ship at any given time but with them that can be quite deceptive. Before being forced to abandon the crushable nose cone ship I would have said they had about 90% if not more. If you were to look around their shop you might guess that it was closer to 1/4 of a ship since they can take stuff apart very quickly. They could probably toss together 4 or 5 flying vehicles within a week or two if they wanted to, using everything they've got stashed at their shop. Although I would think they could only assemble 2 vehicles capable of being manned. They might be short on some of the electronics for more than one or two but engines, tanks, wiring and aeroshell stuff they've got quite a lot.

Excuse me if i'm missing something but isn't this a bit of a pointless question. Which team is going sit on a full working ship (100%) and not launch? This is a competition and there's no second prize.

There the serious question about permits and certification - Someone *could* be ready to go, but not have all the paperwork and red tape out of the way.
(But that does *not* mean that I think anyone besides Scaled is ready to go at any moment - Armadillo and the others don't seem to be close enough)

[quote="robiwan"]Hey just wandering if there still is a chance that Rutan may not have this in the back[quote]

I think that if anything the X-Prize's winner is even less certain now than it was in June. Remember that the last time there was a "flight test anomoly" for SpaceShipOne (The landing incident on the centennial of flight) it was out for three months. Then it flew for a glide test, then four months after the incident flew again powered. Assuming that they work at the same pace now, that would mean that Scaled wouldn't file for the 60 day notice until mid-October, barely wining the X-Prize in time at the end of December. STC, Canadian Arrow, DaVinci, or perhaps Armadillo could beat them at that rate, but it's extremely difficult to tell who is even remotely close to being ready. Remember that Rotary Rocket claimed that they could be flying into orbit twice a day by early 2000 at one point (And yet there is still no Roton orbital service ).

SC has a very passive attitude about the X-Prize. It seems like for them, if they win it, they win it, they don't really care. They set launch dates and fly them, weither they win the X-Prize or return to space in the shadow of the canadian teams. In other words, the answer to your question really is who knows?

_________________"Yes, that series of words I just said made perfect sense!"
-Professor Hubert Farnsworth

STC has been in the running quietly so it seems. They have been steadily increasing the number of test flights of their smaller rockets, probably to shakedown the telemetry. According to them, flight test of the full scaled Rubicon vehicle will take place in the second half of this July.

This begs several interesting questions. Firstly, since when did STC obtain a launch license? Second, information on the capsule and rocket design seems pretty sketchy. Nothing in terms of launch escape system. Lighting 7 solid fuel rockets is a Roman candle approach and i really want to see safety features.

Assuming that the July launch is of the real vehicle, it would make the race very very interesting.