Competing in the “More than Moore” Era

Competing in the “More than Moore” Era

An interview with Dr. Wei Shaojun, China National Science and Technology Major Projects

The
Integrated Circuit (IC) industry is heading towards the “More than Moore” Era,
with enhanced basic capability to meet the challenges of the new era. Dr. Wei
Shaojun, the leader of the China
National Science and Technology Major Project (01), says that the future development of the
IC industry will no longer strictly follow the Moore's Law, with a considerable
amount of uncertainty. The industry’s roadmap will never be as clear as the era
of Moore's Law in terms of the future development and direction.

Wei
Shaojun points out that current IC design is very important, and there will be
an increase of 39 percent in
IC design this year in China, exceeding RMB 60 billion. By 2015, China will surpass
Taiwan in IC design and become the world's second largest IC design
industry base.

Today,
semiconductor process manufacturing has entered the 22nm era. Last May, Intel
announced its achievement of the next-generation transistor technology of 22nm
FinFET. By the fourth quarter of this year, 25 percent of its chip shipments will
adopt the 22nm FinFET technology. Industry giants like Intel and Samsung have
invested a huge amount (US$ 6.5 billion) in the European ASML for the research
and development of the next-generation lithography. When it comes to an era
below 20nm, only a few manufacturers are capable of building “less than 20nm”
chip factories, but not all players can afford to play this game.

Wei
Shaojun states that the construction of one 18-inch wafer fab now costs
$10 billion, so the number of manufacturing OEMs will reduce dramatically on entering
the era of the next-generation chip technology. Many IDM companies have already
announced that they will transform into Fab-Lite or Fabless companies instead
of continuous investment in advanced technology production lines. So far, only
three manufacturers — Intel, Samsung and TSMC — have announced the construction
of 16/14nm production lines, and the enlistment of SMIC depends on the
determination and courage of the Chinese government. Looking on the bright
side, with the rapid development of China’s IC design industry over the recent
years, some domestic IC design companies, will be capable of research and
development at advanced process nodes, and will be participants of designing
the next generation of advanced IC chip in the coming future.

Wei
Shaojun also explains that the future market demand for chips has changed from
the order of “performance, costs and power” to this order “performance, power
and costs.” With the development of chip technology, performance shall continue
to be the first priority in designing chips, followed by power and then costs;
the future chip market will be an era of high-end technology and process competition,
so cost will only play a supporting role in the future arena.

In
the future, the relationship between IC design and manufacturing OEMs will also
be more subtle, a partnership between upstream and downstream will be
established, and OEMs will selectively cooperate with specific IC design
companies; as far as an IC design company selects an OEM, it will never change
easily. In this way, IC design and manufacturing will develop to be a liability of friendship.

Wei
Shaojun has also stressed the significance of Intellectual Property (IP). In
such a highly competitive IC design industry, the abuse of IP core or the heavy
reliance on foreign IP technology — in addition to the shortage of independent
R&D of IP — will prevent domestic IC design from developing forward. He believes that IP core is critical but the first
priority is to create and maintain “our own IP core.”

In
addition, Wei Shaojun proposed the following for the development of China's IC
industry:

Adjust
the architecture and architectural innovation

Enhance
the design capability

Create
our own IP core

Realize
low-power design

Take
use of SiP / MCO high-density packaging

Attach
great importance to software

The
IC industry has entered a high-cost era and the “More than Moore” era is just around
the corner according to Wei Shaojun. With this momentum, only a few companies will
survive, and decision-making now impacts whether China's IC industry will be
able to take its fair share in the future IC ecosphere.

This article was originally published
in SEMI’s Semiconductor Manufacturing.