INSIGHT: Nuclear Deal a Win-Win for US, Iran – Even Israel

The ink was not dry on the historic Geneva nuclear accord with Iran before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced it as a “historic mistake” that would allow Iran to cheat and get closer to nuclear weapons.

Netanyahu may have been doing Iran a favor. By criticizing the deal so harshly, he will make it easier for Iranian officials to assert to their hardliners that the agreement, which pauses Iran’s nuclear advances and rolls back some of the program in return for modest sanctions relief, was a victory for the Islamic Republic.In the zero-sum politics of the Middle East, what’s good for your enemy is invariably considered bad for you. Yet the deal announced early Sunday European time has much that is useful for Iran, the United States, the international community writ large and, yes, Israel too.If implemented, it will push Iran farther from the ability to “break out” quickly from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Even though low-level uranium enrichment will continue, Iran has pledged not to stockpile it and to stop refining uranium to 20 percent U-235 – very close to weapons grade. Iran will convert the 200 kilograms of 20 percent uranium it has amassed to a form that cannot be easily enriched further. The deal will also freeze most work at a heavy water reactor called Arak that if completed, could yield plutonium, another potential bomb fuel. And it will provide the International Atomic Energy Agency with unprecedented daily access to Iranian enrichment plants as well as potential answers to questions about alleged past weapons research at military sites. All of this has long been sought by the international community in vain.

In return, the Iranians will get about $7 billion in sanctions relief – most of it their own oil earnings which have been frozen abroad, the right to continue to export oil at a current reduced level to Asian clients and facilitated humanitarian transactions including imports of food and medicine, and a means to support Iranian students abroad, including 8,000 in the U.S. The United States, European Union and UN Security Council also pledge not to pass new nuclear-related sanctions against Iran for the six-month duration of the interim deal. During this time, Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (the P5+1) are to negotiate a comprehensive agreement that will cap the Iranian nuclear program in return for recognition of Iran’s right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy and the lifting of all nuclear-related sanctions.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (R) chats with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif at the United Nations Palais in Geneva November 24, 2013. (Reuters)

Iran will still remain under U.S. sanctions for the foreseeable future for its support of groups such as Hezbollah, which the U.S. regards as terrorist, and for abusing the human rights of the Iranian people. European sanctions related to those areas will also remain in place. But the nuclear agreement is an entry point into further discussions that could lead to a more constructive Iran externally and a less authoritarian regime at home.As I wrote in August the election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was a bright spot in an otherwise bloody Middle East, and presented President Barack Obama with the potential for a positive foreign policy legacy. Rouhani, who marks his 100th day in office on November 26 – he counts from the day his cabinet was seated – desperately needed a nuclear deal to fulfill his campaign promises to ease the burden of sanctions on the Iranian people. But to sign a deal, Rouhani had to be able to say that Iran’s rights had been respected and that Iran had not given too much away too soon. For Obama, the same equation applied.It is easy for Israeli, Arab and congressional critics to complain that the agreement does not “dismantle” Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but the maximalist deal that would have satisfied these hardliners was simply not obtainable in a first phase. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave Rouhani and his talented negotiating team “heroic flexibility” to reach an agreement, not carte blanche. Rouhani was not going to be able to stop all uranium enrichment because he was heavily criticized by Iranian hardliners for suspending parts of the program from 2003-2005 – when the George W. Bush administration sat on the sidelines and Europeans negotiated with Iran – and getting very little in return. (It is not true, as critics have charged, that Rouhani “cheated” so Iran could continue other nuclear work; his agreement with the Europeans suspended only the enrichment program.)The next few months will show whether Iran – and the United States and its partners – can fulfill their promises – which will require that domestic opposition hold its fire. If the deal works, the prospect for another Middle East war and all the horror that entails will recede, the U.S. and Iran can begin to repair a breach of 34 years and there could be benefits for tamping down the conflict in Syria as well. Indeed on Monday, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon announced via Twitter that a long-sought Geneva conference on Syria will be held January 22.Rather than try to sabotage the nuclear agreement, detractors should test Iran’s compliance. Netanyahu and other critics may find it psychologically uncomfortable to reappraise a long-time enemy, but the upside could be tremendous – and not just for the Israeli stock market which hit a record high on Sunday.

The views expressed in this Insight are the author’s own and are not endorsed by Middle East Voices or Voice of America. If you’d like to share your opinion on this post, you may use our democratic commenting system below. If you are a Middle East expert or analyst associated with an established academic institution, think tank or non-governmental organization, we invite you to contribute your perspectives on events and issues about or relevant to the region. Please email us through our Contact page with a short proposal for an Insight post or send us a link to an existing post already published on your institutional blog.

Barbara Slavin is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a correspondent for Al-Monitor.com, a website specializing in the Middle East. She is the author of a 2007 book, "Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US and the Twisted Path to Confrontation," and is a regular commentator on U.S. foreign policy and Iran on NPR, PBS, C-SPAN and the Voice of America.

2 Comments

Harry Weaver

November 25, 2013

Uummmmm! 20% is nowhere near weapons grade. 90% is required for that. The reduction to 5% was required to keep the French happy in maintaining their monopoly in the market of medical isotopes, one in which I ran was to supply the developing world market. They will now have to wait or die pending the new agreement, unless they can afford France’s price. This was the main thrust behind France’s endorsement of the Saudi/Israeli stance. It was all about the money.

France’s electric power is over 75% nuclear: it’s a major industry for them and they had a lot to do with fostering the Israeli nuclear industry to the point where they have become the fourth most powerful nuclear power on the planet, without so much as a murmur. France will be garnering some benefit from the end product of Dimona which is sited in the Negev, as well as at least one other major nuclear weapons grade processing plant under Israeli control.

Areva, France’s foremost nuclear power industry entity, will be the one to implement Obama’s revamped nuclear power programme if he goes ahead with it beyond the current mini-stations built by Babcock and Wilcox. Areva and the U.S. have a long established business relationship in the nuclear aspect. The material require for the manufacture of `dirty bombs’ being just one of their by-products that the U.S. has purchased in the past

Thank you Harry!
It would be wasteful for Iran to
dilute their 20% uranium. I think
medical isotopes cause as much
disease as they cure, but heavy
element concentrates are valuable
for physical research. Further refined
in other countries such as France,
They can be used to boost thrust
and electric generation for collabora-
tive, international, space exploration;
to win new lands and resources for
all Earth’s people.
Is France where the USA bought the
radioactive material for it’s subcritical,
EMP weapons both Bush admins
used in Iraq to fry Iraqi comm and
weapon control systems, with the
aftermath of babies born with tumors,
the epidemic of birth defects and
cancers from subcritical emp bombs,
DU, and tactical H bombs on bunkers,
or are we producing radioactive
materials for some of those in the
USA?
Imagine making rockets that
can travel through the solar system
and back to Earth in a few years.
discovering whole new worlds!
Lasting. strong, compact power
plants are as crucial as fuel-thrust
efficiency to extending the human
range of discovery and colonization
in our solar system that nations
can achieve together during this
century.
I think we can manufacture and
dispose safely now and it would be
worthwhile if for physics and space.
Is it better to kill a half-million and
for thousands to die by inches,
for fear of some country we could
share whole planets, moons and
mineral bounties with and all be
better off?

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