The Presidential Election 2012 is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is at 7.9% (and real unemployment much higher).[1]

Obama was leading in the polls by a substantial margin until the first presidential debate, which Romney won by the widest margin every recorded by Gallup polling. Afterward the race became a statistical tie in polling.

This election will be like either the election of 1980, when a large bloc of undecided voters moved to the socially conservative challenger (Ronald Reagan) in the last few weeks, or the election of 1948, when the RINOThomas Dewey was unable to attract grassroots voters despite the unpopularity of Harry Truman and the deteriorating economy.

Obama took advantage of Hurricane Sandy to create an impression that he was a competent leader, but, a week after the storm, its effects are still being felt.

Both candidates have proven leadership skills, but Obama's response to Hurricane Sandy is being celebrated by the liberal press.

Likability

Romney's likability rating stands at only 31%, and has been lower.

Obama's likability rating is at 48%.

Advantage to Obama.

Debates

Romney is a good debater.

Obama struggles without a teleprompter, but will benefit from liberal moderators.

Advantage to Romney.

VPs

Paul Ryan has youth, energy, and likability, but is part of the Big Government Republican leadership in Congress, which has an ultra-low approval rating; Romney has been criticized for not using Ryan more effectively in the campaign.[2]

Joe Biden is a gaffe-prone goofball, but is protected by the liberal media.

Toss-up here, or maybe a slight edge to Ryan.

Fundraising

Mitt did not turn out to be as strong a fundraiser as expected, nor were the Super PACs effective on his side; some of their comments to the press, like Karl Rove criticizing Todd Akin, were actually hurtful.

Limousine liberals have donated millions to Obama's reelection, and once again the Dems outspend the Republicans.

Contents

Campaign strategy

Both campaigns have focused on key battleground states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia.[6] A CNN summary of poll of likely voters taken just before the first debate had Obama leading Romney in Florida, 47% to 46%, in Virginia 48% to 46% and in Ohio 52% to 43%.[6]

Romney made a last-minute effort in Pennsylvania, including both ads and personal appearances, but Obama ultimately won Pennsylvania's electoral votes. The October 25 Rasmussen poll in Pennsylania had the state 51% for Obama and 46% for Romney, but the last minute effort did not move enough voters to change the outcome.[7]

Fundraising

The Associated Press reports that the following people are the top donors to Mitt Romney's campaign and his "Restore Our Future" SuperPAC:[8]

Donor

Amount

Sheldon Adelson, 79, owner of the Las Vegas Sands casino empire.

$34.2 million

Harold Simmons, 81, owner of Contran Corp.

$16 million

Bob J. Perry, 80, a Houston real estate investor

$15.3 million

Robert Rowling, 58, head of Dallas-based TRT Holdings

$4.1 million

William Koch, 72, an industrialist whose family owns an energy and mining conglomerate

$3 million

Debates

The Commission on Presidential Debates is sponsoring four debates.[9] Although many candidates will appear on the ballot in some states, the Commission is limiting participation in the debates to just candidates that appear on enough states to be mathematically eligible to win the presidency. Candidates also must gain at least 15% support in five national polls as of the date of determination, to be some time after Labor Day 2012.[10] The debates are:

An independent presidential debate, sponsored by the Free and Equal Elections Foundation and moderated by former CNN host Larry King, took place on October 23, 2012, at the Hilton Hotel in Chicago, Illinois. President Obama and Governor Romney declined invitations, while Johnson, Goode, Stein and Anderson participated.[14] A second independent debate is scheduled to take place on October 30 in Washington, D.C.[15]

Minor parties

With record-low support for either major party candidate, this could be a year when minor parties do unusually well.

Popular ex-Congressman from Virginia who had previously won election as a Democrat, Independent, and Republican. Joined the Constitution Party in 2010. Opposes illegal immigration and calls for a reduction in legal immigration as well. Won the Constitution Party nomination for president in April on the first ballot.

Defeated Roseanne Barr for the Green Party nomination. Criticizes Obama for allegedly perpetuating the policies of the Bush administration. Supports the Occupy Wall Street protests. Was previously the Green Party candidate in a series of elections in Massachusetts including a Gubernatorial Election against Mitt Romney (among others).

The former Republican two-term governor of New Mexico, Johnson favors the fair tax, ending American military actions overseas, legalizing marijuana, expanding legal immigration and allowing same-sex marriage. Given Ron Paul's libertarian campaign for the Republican nomination and the exclusion of Johnson from most of the debates, there was little room for Johnson as a Republican this election cycle. He won the Libertarian Party nomination on May 5, 2012.

References

↑The economy grew less than predicted in the first quarter, and "the last time the economy was this slow was in the last year of President George H.W. Bush’s one term in office" - who then lost reelection. [1] The September 7 labor report observed, "Just 63.5% of the working-age population was either employed or actively looking for work -- a 30-year low." [2]