Primaries Pit States Over Dates

Iowa, New Hampshire Fight To Stay First

For people who think election campaigns begin too early and last too long, next year's Republican presidential primary calendar is a mixed blessing.

The good news is that the nomination of a GOP challenger to President Clinton could be virtually decided by the end of March, shortly after the primary votes are counted in Illinois and three other Midwestern states.

The bad news is that the GOP standard-bearer and Clinton would then wage a seven-month general election campaign from early April to Nov. 5.

In political terms, "there are light-years between now and the beginning of the primary season" next winter, according to Illinois GOP operative Andy Foster. "A lot can happen between now and then."

Nevertheless, the calendar is on the minds of candidates for two reasons: 1) There is a threat to the "first-in-the-nation" status of the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary election; 2) a compressed schedule has two-thirds of the GOP convention delegates selected in February and March.

"It puts a premium on having a strong field organization early, on having a significant fundraising operation and on making certain the candidate has a message that plays in diverse states early on," Washington-based Republican pollster Linda DiVall said.

The two GOP candidates who presently best fit that bill are the early front-runner, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas, and Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas, DiVall's client.

But the second tier of candidates-Gov. Pete Wilson of California, former Gov. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, TV commentator Pat Buchanan and Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania-have circled key dates that will be crucial to their chances.

Still to be settled, however, is which state will go first.

The Iowa caucus, usually the first step in winnowing the presidential field, is tentatively set for Feb. 12, to be followed eight days later by the fabled New Hampshire primary.

The two states work in unison and have laws stipulating that their respective contests are to be held before any like process.

And New Hampshire, to maximize the media bump coming out of its primary, requires that no other contest be held until at least one week later.

"It makes Iowa very prominent in the process, and for that we benefit in a lot of different ways. A lot of states look at that and would like to share some of the upside of being first in the nation," said Iowa GOP executive director Dave Kochel.

The would-be usurpers are Louisiana, where Republicans are scheduled to hold a caucus on Feb. 6, six days before Iowa's, and Delaware, which is trying to crowd New Hampshire's primary with one of its own on the following Saturday, Feb. 24.

The Republican National Committee has taken a hands-off position and left it to the states to work out their differences.

For now, the upstarts and the old-timers are in a standoff, although political pros say it will be tough to buck the tradition represented by the campaign intimacy of Iowa and New Hampshire.

In Delaware, the primary date was set by Democratic-sponsored legislation passed in 1992. The state assembly is not in session and there is no pending action to change the date in deference to New Hampshire.

"We like the early primary," Delaware GOP executive director Bob Chadwick said. "It allows Delaware, a small state, to have some impact and be an important primary state . . . I don't expect there'll be any change."

In Louisiana, the switch from a March primary to a February caucus would give conservative Southerners an early impact in the nominating process, but the change is subject to scrutiny by the U.S. Justice Department.

"The South is the new home of the Republican Party," Louisiana GOP spokesman George Bonnett said. The region, he argued, will be pivotal in picking the next president. "It's time for a Southern state to kick things off," Bonnett said. "We intend to be first."

But Kochel promised that Iowa Republicans will play hardball in defending the state's first-in-the-nation caucus.

Because Louisiana is a Southern state, any change in its election law must be approved by federal civil rights authorities to ensure that it complies with the Voting Rights Act. Kochel called it "a major stumbling block" for Louisiana, while Bonnett brushed it aside as a formality.

"We maintain that the effect of their change . . . would be to limit (voter) participation with some groups and would have a discriminatory effect. We don't think it will get approved," Kochel said. The Iowa state party enlisted Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) to ensure that the Justice Department reviews the Louisiana change.

The brinksmanship will continue into this fall, when Iowa and New Hampshire must finalize their dates and could move their events into January.

"The whole thing is still a moving target," said Charles Black, Gramm's chief campaign strategist.