Tropical Cyclone 18E is now active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 1670 miles east-southeast of South Point, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 18E is now active in the eastern Pacific, moving more or less westward towards the central Pacific…although isn’t expected to influence the Hawaiian Islands directly. This tropical depression is expected to strengthen into tropical storm Nora…and then becoming a category 1 hurricane within 2-days

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the far southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific has become better organized.

Curved cloud banding features have increased, along with a growing area of deep convection near the center. Thus the system is declared a tropical depression, the 18th of the season.

The initial wind speed is set to 30 knots.

The cyclone is expected to be in a favorable environment for strengthening for the next few days, with low wind shear, very warm waters. and high mid-level moisture. Thus steady intensification is forecast until early next week.

Thereafter, an increase in southwesterly wind shear and some cooler sea waters, should cause the cyclone to weaken some by day 5.

It would not be surprising if this tropical cyclone intensified more than indicated, given the large-scale environment, but timing this is not possible at the moment.

The depression is moving westward at about 12 knots. This general motion is expected for the next 2-3 days, while it remains under the influence of the subtropical high pressure ridge located over the eastern and central Pacific.

This pattern is expected to change quickly after day 3, when a mid-latitude trough erodes the ridge, causing the cyclone to recurve well east of the Hawaiian Islands.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…with an area of disturbed weather with a high chance of developing

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the Arabian Sea, circled in red above, which has a high chance of developing

Eastern North Pacific

1.) An area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred miles south of southeastern Mexico late this weekend. Environmental conditions could become conducive for some development of this system next week while it moves westward at about 10 mph

North Arabian Sea

As I mentioned when we met recently at BNPB HQ Jakarta, I want to extend my appreciation to you, to your colleagues at PDC, and to USAID/OFDA for your hard work and dedication – and for your tangible results – in building capabilities and capacities for disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, especially in the area of hazard monitoring and early warning.

Daniel B. Whitley

Acting Associate Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service (2017)

"On behalf of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Services, I would like to express my appreciation and full support of the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) for its essential contributions...with data and support...we've been able to improve our global agricultural production and disaster assessment analyses, products, and decision outcomes."

Harlan V. Hale

Regional Advisor, USAID/DCHA/OFDA/EAP

"From a disaster management perspective, these agencies [PDC, HOT, PetaBencana.id] have combined their skills, have worked well together, and have created something that is really innovative, useful, and can actually improve both the disaster response by the government and citizen's participation in it as well."

“Keep up the good work. I'm using EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) in Texas to monitor Hurricane Harvey.”

Eric Yarrell

Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force, JTF-Bravo (2017)

"JTF-Bravo sincerely appreciated the HADR decision-support information provided by the Pacific Disaster Center during Hurricane Irma response… has been both timely and valuable support of current operations."

Susan Cruz

Director, Office of Civil Defense (2015)

"We are very appreciative of your support to our country."

Augusto Moreno O'Phelan

Director General for Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Defense, Peru (2016)

"Many thanks for your important information about the ongoing outbreak of Zika virus in the Americas."

"…thank you all for the assistance you have rendered on so many occasions to The BNGISC but more importantly to The Bahamas."

Claudia Mateo

President, Republica Domincana Comisión Nacional de Energía

"Thank you for being aware of our situation and for the sending of images for analysis."

William I. Clark

Humanitarian Assistance Division Chief, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017)

Our success during response efforts is directly related to PDC's contribution. The set of tools offered by your decision support system (DisasterAWARE), the large amount of data, the modeling and assessments, and skill set of your staff are unique. They provide my team with great situational awareness in a timely manner, enabling rapid and informed decision making in critical periods."

Don Price

Disaster Management Advisor, U.S. Forest Service, Myanmar (2017)

"The big floods in Southern China are causing some real problems for Vietnam and Myanmar and DMRS/EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) is the best visualization for this regional flood situation."

Ana Ake

Ministry of Information and Communications, Kingdom of Tonga (2017)

"I was first introduced to EMOPS (DisasterAWARE)...during a HA/DR training in Auckland this year. I've worked with several tools and it is obvious that EMOPS is the only sustainable tool that is available and is openly available."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho

Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations, BNPB (2017)

"Thank you very much for your support in Mt Agung eruption. Very useful to us."

"[I] wanted to pass along that the reports that PDC is generating are succinct and extremely informative. I've passed along to other colleagues in the HQs staff and other COCOMs to peak their interest. Well done!"

Christopher Vaughan

FEMA National Headquarters Geospatial Information Officer (2015)

"My sincerest thanks to the PDC team during this event. [Tropical Cyclone Dolphin] Your professionalism and dedication to the mission is to be commended. I'm sure we will have plenty to discuss/improve upon in the weeks to follow. Thanks again for all the support. Great job team."

USDA Foreign Agriculture Service officer

USDA (2016)

"Your suggestion that we look at PDC content and capabilities has really paid off. We partnered with them, and are ingesting their global disaster feeds into [Global Agricultural & Disaster Assessment System] GADAS. The addition of a couple of our own applications to quickly delineate impacted areas and extract agricultural acreage and population has proved quite valuable."

Jeremy K. Delancy

Senior Assistant Secretary, Ministry of Social Services & Community Development, Commonwealth of The Bahamas (2016)

"I wanted [PDC] to know that I used DisasterAWARE during Hurricane Joaquin and it performed admirably. Some further training will be needed for us to use it to its full capabilities. One of the persons who was quite impressed is Chief Meteorological Officer, Mr. Arnold King."

"I knew of 'InAWARE' and I am impressed by its capabilities. Information sharing in the humanitarian context is still a big challenge (especially in ASEAN), and the efforts you are putting to close this gap are highly appreciated, and indeed highly useful for the whole humanitarian community."

Kenta Hamasaki

The Consulate General of Japan, Honolulu, HI (2016)

"Aloha Julie. Hello. After the registration [for DisasterAWARE], I started to receive warnings such as Typhoon Meranti. That data contains necessary info and is so graphic that it's easy to know at a glance how the impact is. This is very important for our duties. Thank you again."

Jonathan Colwell

Goespatial Coordinator, DHS-FEMA Region 9 (2016)

"EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) made my day so much easier while monitoring [Tropical Cyclone] AMOS. Data that I thought I'd spend a good part of the morning digging for was available, as were the tools to draw polygons and annotate and meet the requirement."

"I work for the Virginia DOT as an emergency planner. I would like to be added to your distribution list for awareness products. I followed work during Hurricane Mathew and would like to avail our organization of your great products."

Jesse Rozelle

Program Manager, Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program, FEMA (2017)

"Aloha PDC team: I wanted to express my sincere gratitude for all of your support during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The modeling and risk assessment support you have provided to FEMA has been incredibly helpful for our response efforts and our emergency management partners. I'm looking forward to a continued partnership."

PDC's support in the SOUTHCOM region and its commitment to promote public safety were unfailing during the Rio Olympics. [DisasterAWARE] greatly enhanced our situational awareness and offered an abundance of useful data and safety monitoring information."

Marcus Elten

United Nations OCHA (2016)

"I was impressed with how quickly you guys developed situational awareness products...quite impressed with your team's work."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho

Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations for Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB