UFC 205: Punch Drunk Predictions

E. Spencer Kyte and Patrick Cwiklinski deliver their thoughts and predictions on Saturday's UFC 205 pay-per-view. Will Conor McGregor make history or will Eddie Alvarez turn back "The Notorious" one?

The wait is over… almost.

Saturday night at Madison Square Garden, the UFC rolls out its best card to date – a card so strong that it can easily withstand losing two fights this week without anyone flinching. With three championship fights and innumerable storylines at play, this is an event that is sure to have a massive impact on the UFC landscape heading into 2017 and given that these fights are compelling from both a story and stylistic perspective, we should be in for a great night of action.

Can Conor McGregor make history and become the first man to hold two UFC title simultaneously or will Eddie Alvarez solidify himself as the ruler of the lightweight division?

Will Tyron Woodley entrench himself at the welterweight ranks or does Stephen Thompson continue rolling and add a championship victory to his winning streak?

Does Joanna Jedrzejczyk maintain her position as one of the most dominant fighters on the roster, regardless of gender, or will it be her countrywoman, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who walks away as the UFC strawweight champion when the smoke clears?

Our resident prognosticators share their thoughts and picks below.

These are the UFC 205 Punch Drunk Predictions.

Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 10: UFC president seperates Eddie Alvarez and Conor McGregor during the UFC 205 press conference at The Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 10, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Pat: McGregor has reiterated his plan to make history by becoming the UFC’s first multi-division champion throughout his career. This is a man hell-bent on crushing norms and standards in the sport and up to this point in his tenure with the UFC, he’s done just that.

After two fights at welterweight against the unbelievably tough and durable Nate Diaz, McGregor is finally getting his crack at the lightweight strap and it couldn’t come at a better time in his career. He’s flying high off defeating Diaz in their rematch at UFC 202 and has a chance to cap off 2016 with two belts in Madison Square Garden.

Standing in the way of McGregor and history is Alvarez, who is by all means a championship pedigree fighter and someone who the Irishman cannot take lightly under any circumstances. Knocking out Rafael dos Anjos in under a round to win the belt wasn’t a fluke, as much as people would like to take that away from him. This is a seasoned vet with tons of experience against the very best lightweights in the world from the UFC, Bellator and even Dream in Japan.

This really is a pick ‘em fight in my eyes. McGregor is the superior striker and has learned how to effectively use his energy in a five-round war thanks to his most recent Diaz fight. Alvarez, on the other hand, has good hands, strong wrestling and presents more overall threats to the UFC featherweight champion.

I think the x-factor here is who can get into who’s head first. For Conor, that comes before the fight in the build-up and whether he can plant that little seed of doubt in Alvarez’s mind. For Eddie, it’s in the fight itself after McGregor lands a few shots and realizes his opponent just as difficult to put away as Diaz with a more varied output.

Still, my imaginary coin lands on the “Notorious” one to make history.

ESK: While you’re looking at mental warfare, I’m sticking to the measurable for my pick and unfortunately for Alvarez, that means a Conor McGregor victory and the first two-weight world champion in UFC history. I would also like to note that from an “I think it’s better for the sport” perspective, I really would like to see Alvarez win to bring some order to the chaos, but I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

Lightweight is actually the best weight for McGregor – the cut isn’t bad at all and all the advantages that helped carry him to the top of the mountain at featherweight play up a division as well. He’s still got very good size and reach for the division, blistering power and a keen understanding of movement, angles and how to best deploy his weapons. In order to win, Alvarez needs to get inside (I think) and that means wading through punches, which is a tough ask for a guy that lumps up bad and often is left bloodied by less precise, less powerful strikers.

Maybe Alvarez clips McGregor and finishes, as he’s predicted, but the more likely scenario to me is the Irishman picking his spots early to find his range and his rhythm before earning the stoppage in the middle rounds to win his second UFC title.

Prediction: Conor McGregor by TKO, Round 3

Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 10: UFC Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley and Stephen Thompson face off for a photo during the UFC 205 press conference at The Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 10, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Pat: There’s a good contingent of people out there who still believe Woodley’s welterweight title-winning performance against Robbie Lawler at UFC 201 was something of a fluke. Listen guys, having power and landing a perfectly placed shot is not a fluke, at least not the way I saw it. Woodley was looking for that shot, saw an opportunity and landed.

Thompson has certainly been the more active of the two fighters with career-defining victories over Rory MacDonald and Johny Hendricks on his resume. “Wonderboy” has one of the most unique and entertaining stand-up styles in the game thanks to his karate background and dynamic movement. Not to mention, his takedown defense is pretty rock solid as well.

There’s no question that Thompson has more weapons to win this fight in my eyes. He’s faster, more difficult to read and his strikes connect hard. Woodley always has that big overhand in his arsenal and all he needs is one to put “Wonderboy” to sleep, the question, however, is can he land it on an opponent who isn’t stationary?

ESK: It feels weird to count Tyron Woodley out since that’s exactly what most of us (me included) did before his fight with Robbie Lawler and that one ended up with Lawler sleeping and Woodley heading home to St. Louis as the UFC welterweight champion. But on paper, this is a terrible match-up for the defending champ and I think it ends that way too.

Thompson is a master at controlling distance, landing his shots and getting the hell out of the way. He spent 25 minutes frustrating the life out of Rory MacDonald in Ottawa and stuffed former champ Johny Hendricks’ takedown attempts in Vegas prior to that. Woodley has legit knockout power and will be hunting the right hand from the jump, but the more I look at this fight, the more I see Thompson working a stick-and-move approach that frustrates “The Chosen One” into taking bigger risks and getting caught.

In a year filled with title changes, this will be another one.

Prediction: Stephen Thompson by TKO, Round 3

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 10: Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Karolina Kowalkiewicz face off during the UFC 205 press conference at The Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 10, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Pat: It brings a single tear to my eyes to see two Polish women compete for the strawweight title. It’s a testament to how far the country has come on the MMA scene and there’s no disputing Jedrzejczyk as the best female fighter in the game; no disrespect to Cris Cyborg.

As much as I respect Kowalkiewicz for taking this fight and was impressed by her win over Rose Namajunas to get this opportunity, Jedrzejczyk is probably going to smoke her. They already fought once as amateurs with Joanna winning and even though it’s been a long time since then, I think Jedrzejczyk is the one who got significantly better with time.

Kowalkiewicz isn’t easy to put away but I’m anticipating a dominant five-round victory from the champion in New York.

I don’t mean to be callous or curt, but all week I’ve been saying this is a match-up of two fighters with similar games, the only difference being that the champion is the “Rated R” version and the challenger is more of a “PG-13” type and that doesn’t bode well for Kowalkiewicz. Jedrzejczyk does everything she does on another level, with greater speed, power and savagery and it will show through early in this one.

I honestly think this is going to be a statement performance for Jedrzejczyk – a quick, nasty finish where she puts a stamp on her standing as one of the best in the business and begins to march towards greater stardom beyond the MMA bubble.

Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk by TKO, Round 2

Chris Weidman vs. Yoel Romero

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 09: Chris Weidman (L) and Yoel Romero of Cuba pose for a photo during the UFC 205 Ultimate Media Day at The Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 9, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Pat: I don’t know what to make of this thing if I’m being honest. Weidman hasn’t fought in nearly a year after losing his middleweight title to Luke Rockhold at UFC 194 while Romero, who was on the same card, has been sidelined by USADA for the same period of time after his controversial win over Jacare Souza.

I still believe Weidman is a championship level fighter and if Romero passes his strict USADA testing, we’ll have a compelling fight. Weidman has great wrestling, good hands and better cardio than his opponent. As long as he doesn’t fight emotional coming out of the gate where Romero is fresh and most dangerous, Weidman should be able to get the job done and put the “Solider of God” away.

ESK: I wrote yesterday, in the story linked above, that this feels like a “Y’all Must’ve Forgot” moment for Weidman, the former champion who is being chased into the cage by questions about where he fits in the division he once ruled.

As dangerous as Romero is – and he’s a serious threat – I think we see Weidman’s smarts be the deciding factor in this fight. Romero is a guy that is often too willing to let others lead the dance and dictate what happens, and that’s a mistake against Weidman, who will make the Cuban carry his weight, land good shots in the clinch and tire out Romero from positions where he’s in the least amount of trouble.

I also think condition comes into play here, as Weidman has been going five fives for the last couple years, knows the pace he can keep and cuts back to three rounds here. Expect him to work quickly and force Romero to tire before hunting for a finish late.

Prediction: Chris Weidman by Unanimous Decision

Miesha Tate vs. Raquel Pennington

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 09: Miesha Tate (L) and Raquel Pennington pose for a photo during the UFC 205 Ultimate Media Day at The Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 9, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Pat: Tate finally reached the pinnacle of the women’s bantamweight division after living in Ronda Rousey’s shadow for years and it was taken away just as quickly in a one-sided submission loss to Amanda Nunes at UFC 200 in June. Her tenure as champion was cut short as she came out flat against the Brazilian brawler and she paid for it with the belt she won from Holly Holm.

This is a hugely mental matchup to me. Pennington been one of the more underrated members of the women’s 135-pound division for a couple years now and has the tools to put Tate in a similar position to the one Holm was in against Valentina Shevchenko just a few months ago.

I’m taking the upset in this one, but I don’t think it comes without a little controversy.

ESK: I appreciate your willingness to roll the dice, but this feels like one of those fights where we remember that Miesha Tate is an elite talent and Pennington is not. As much as I agree that there are mental hurdles for Tate to clear in advance of this bout, she’s always shown an ability to do exactly that throughout her career and this should be no different.

To me, the difference in this one is just application and drive – Tate is a relentless worker in the cage and never stops trying to find ways to make things happen, while Pennington can be a little too passive. She’ll push Tate and force her to adjust and keep grinding, but ultimately, the former champion will find a way to swing things in her favour.

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