Well, that was a tough year. A big question now is who was worth the money and who wasn't.

Rather than do this by 'player A sucks, he wasn't worth it' I'll go by a comparison of salary to FanGraphs value. Not perfect, but at least it is objective and gives an idea, although it sure jumps a few guys due to their defense. In order of most valuable to least. Numbers in (brackets) indicate a negative value (ie: it should be easy to find someone else to do a better job).

Player

Paid

Value Provided

Spread

Edwin Encarnacion

$3.50

$19.90

$16.40

Jose Bautista

$14.00

$14.50

$0.50

Brett Lawrie

$0.48

$13.90

$13.42

Yunel Escobar

$5.00

$8.80

$3.80

Colby Rasmus

$2.70

$6.00

$3.30

J.P. Arencibia

$0.49

$5.30

$4.81

Jeff Mathis

$1.50

$4.00

$2.50

Kelly Johnson

$6.38

$3.10

($3.28)

Rajai Davis

$2.75

$3.00

$0.25

Anthony Gose

$0.48

$2.20

$1.72

Adam Lind

$5.00

$0.70

($4.30)

Adeiny Hechavarria

$1.75

$0.50

($1.25)

David Cooper

$0.48

($0.10)

($0.58)

Yan Gomes

$0.48

($0.20)

($0.68)

Moises Sierra

$0.48

($1.70)

($2.18)

Eric Thames

$0.48

($2.50)

($2.98)

Omar Vizquel

$0.75

($2.90)

($3.65)

Pitchers

Paid

Value Provided

Spread

Brandon Morrow

$4.00

$10.90

$6.90

Casey Janssen

$2.00

$5.30

$3.30

J.A. Happ

$2.35

$5.00

$2.65

Darren Oliver

$4.00

$4.80

$0.80

Aaron Loup

$0.48

$4.10

$3.62

Steve Delabar

$0.48

$2.80

$2.32

Carlos Villanueva

$2.28

$2.70

$0.42

Drew Hutchison

$0.50

$2.60

$2.10

Ricky Romero

$5.00

$2.30

($2.70)

Henderson Alvarez

$0.48

$2.10

$1.62

Luis Perez

$0.49

$1.90

$1.41

Brandon Lyon

$5.50

$1.90

($3.60)

Jason Frasor

$3.50

$0.90

($2.60)

Brett Cecil

$0.50

$0.60

$0.10

Chad Beck

$0.50

($0.10)

($0.60)

Chad Jenkins

$0.50

($0.50)

($1.00)

Brad Lincoln

$0.50

($0.60)

($1.10)

Kyle Drabek

$0.49

($0.70)

($1.19)

Sergio Santos

$1.00

($0.80)

($1.80)

Jesse Chavez

$0.50

($1.00)

($1.50)

Andrew Carpenter

$0.50

($1.20)

($1.70)

Aaron Laffey

$0.80

($1.20)

($2.00)

Evan Crawford

$0.50

($1.30)

($1.80)

Francisco Cordero

$4.50

($2.00)

($6.50)

Joel Carreno

$0.48

($2.30)

($2.78)

An * indicates only a partial year here, salary is for full season but value is just as a Blue Jay.

Interesting to see 4 guys worth $10 mil plus, especially considering time lost for Bautista & Morrow and how Lawrie has a ton of the value via defense. Other surprises were Escobar at just shy of $9 mil (defense again), Mathis at $4 mil (maybe it is a good contract), Gose at $2.2 mil (wow, his defense is that good?), Cooper being negative value, and Casey Janssen being the 2nd most valuable pitcher - never good for a reliever to be worth that much. JA Happ being at $5 mil was a shocker that I had to check a few times.

Clearly Lind/Cooper is not a valuable combo with a net worth of $600k. Davis at $3 mil for 2013 looks dead on, and if Gose is really worth that much in his limited time here then give the kid a spot everyday in 2013.

This is a good place (I think) to ask a question that has been on my mind for a while: if a team is trying to maximize profits, should it try to maximize wins?

Championship teams often overspend on players who can help you win right now, but will be millstones a few years from now. Alex Rodriguez is looking like the classic example: he could wind up being a $100 million writeoff for the Yankees. But, had they not traded for him and extended his contract, the Yankees would likely have won fewer games and been in fewer post-seasons.

Large-spending teams seem to have enormous amounts of television revenue to play with and/or are owned by billionaires who are looking for ego rewards instead of profits. Can a team being run as a profit-maximizing business compete with this? I don't know the answer myself. Discuss! :-)

I'm less concerned with Gose's value in 2013 than I am with his potential value 5 or 6 years from now. It's true that he has the raw tools to be a useful major leaguer now, but that also gives him the potential to be a superstar in his mid-to-late 20s. If he reaches that potential, or even comes close, I'd rather he be a semi-affordable Blue Jay when it happens.

I'd much rather see him spend 2013 in AAA, locking down his swing and learning what to do with a breaking ball.

I think, for the Jays, the big question is how to maximize the value they get for the 6+ years they have full control of Gose's MLB rights (ie: pre-free agency). They have option years, so putting him in AAA next year would be fine.

However, that said, you also need to maximize revenue/profit each year. If Gose, right now, is a $10+ million a year player (as FanGraphs suggests) then a GM would be foolish to keep a guy who is a $3-6 million a year guy playing instead (Rasmus or Davis) as it could cost him his job before the kid becomes a $20 mil a year player. Also, if he is up early and you are willing to do the long term deal you might be able to get a bargain for his first few free agent years.

However, that said, you also need to maximize revenue/profit each year. If Gose, right now, is a $10+ million a year player (as FanGraphs suggests) then a GM would be foolish to keep a guy who is a $3-6 million a year guy playing instead (Rasmus or Davis) as it could cost him his job before the kid becomes a $20 mil a year player. Also, if he is up early and you are willing to do the long term deal you might be able to get a bargain for his first few free agent years.

Respectfully, I find this reasoning to be too fancy/convoluted. Prospects should normally be kept in the minors until they're ready for the majors. If a GM starts recalling players with a view to preserving his job, saving a few million short-term, or pleasing the player in order to facilitate potential contract negotiations years down the road...well, that doesn't sound like much of a GM.

Also, without the proper development, your $10M/year player may gradually dwindle into a marginal player as his weaknesses get exploited by major-league pitchers. Why not let him develop properly and turn him into an even more valuable player (with more maturity and ability to make adjustments) over time?

Young players who played only part of the season in the majors only made the major league minimum for that part of the season they were in the majors, so roughly, they were paid:

Gose - $161kCooper - $134kGomes - $132kSeirra - $145kCecil - $220k

I won't bother to calculate all the relievers who were here for a few weeks and gave negative value.

Not a major factor but it does effect the swing in value to some extent.

Overall I'm not surprised by much here but I do kind of dismiss the relievers as the valuation just doesn't seem to handle relief pitchers well. it doesn't make sense that Cecil was more valuable than Lyon, for instance.

For Lawrie it seems most is the defense/shifting. FanGraphs lists his bat as worth 1.3 runs, baserunning 0.6, and fielding 6.5 (all before positional adjustments). To see if this is crazy high I checked Brooks Robinson who hit the low 30's at his peak, so Lawrie isn't anywhere near historical highs. He just is solid all-around with strong defense. Last year, in just 43 games he came up as having value of $12.3 million ($43 mil over 150 games) - that is superstar level. This year was more 'nice solid player' level. FYI: the method to measure defense was readjusted to factor in the extreme shifts the Jays used to some degree.

It is interesting that this shows Lind to basically be a replacement level player. So anytime you see that mentioned just think of Lind. His range is from -3.2 million (2010) to $2.1 million (2011) plus that one year he is listed as being worth $16.5 million. Remove that one crazy year and you have $3.2 million over 6 years or just over $500k a year. Now _that_ is replacement level.

That is a bit unfair to Lind. He has been used inappropriately. Having Adam Lind in a lineup against a lefty and playing first base is going to make his numbers look a lot worse than they ought to. Now having him bat cleanup in that situation takes it to a whole other level. Lind used properly is a 0.5-1.5 WAR player.

Defining the right time for Gose is not as simple as saying we want him to be ready offensively He is a centerfielder, and there is a balance between expected offensive improvement and expected defensive decline. Obviously he is likely (all things being equal) to be a little better in two or three years than he is today, but the longer view is more complicated.

Delaying Gose's promotion might sacrifice some of his career peak defensively (I have no idea if this is the case, but I can see the theoretical argument). However, I'm talking about the broader question of ensuring that talented young players develop properly so that they have the foundation for a long, fruitful career, both offensively and defensively (for their own benefit and for that of the team). Very young prospects aren't just a commodity to be ruthlessly "maximized" or used up. Gose just turned 22 and has a chance to be a special player - I say give him the best possible chance of getting his hit tool in order before he gets exposed in the majors.

For Cooper it was not the DL, but his extremely poor baserunning and fielding according to FanGraphs. His offense is listed as 2.8 runs, but his baserunning is -1.9 and his fielding is -3.1 thus his fielding alone was so poor that it took care of all his offense. Kind of scary actually that his defense was rated that poorly, as was his baserunning.

Santos in 5 innings allowed 5 runs with 4 walks and a home run - enough to cost the team 1/4 a game via WAR. That is worth about $800k to the bad. A pitcher can cost a team a ton very quickly and that is without (as far as I know) factoring in the leverage of the situation and Santos was in very high leverage situations as the closer.

Alex Rodriguez is looking like the classic example: he could wind up being a $100 million writeoff for the Yankees. But, had they not traded for him and extended his contract, the Yankees would likely have won fewer games and been in fewer post-seasons.

It's unfair to lump the decisions to trade for ARod and extend his contract in the same sentence. The decision to trade for him was excellent; they got 2 MVPs in 4 full seasons over which he hit .303/.403/.574 for about 15m a year. The decision to extend him to a supersized deal through his age 41 season, however, was pretty bad, and many people were willing to say so at the time.

It's amazing that Girardi is benching a player with 5 years, 114 million dollars left on his deal with a potential for 30m more in HR milestone bonuses. Watching the ARod saga unfold in New York this winter will be interesting because this story is just getting started.

To make the A-Rod story more interesting is how poorly his replacement has played - Chavez is 0 for 6 in the ALCS, 0 for 14 overall in the playoffs (no walks, hits, HBP). If Chavez did anything with the bat you could argue he was playing the 'hot hand' but he is hitting worse than A-Rod is (130/200/130). Plus mix in that Granderson (103/188/207) and Cano (083/108/139) are just as bad or worse and it looks really weird. Ibanez has done well in LF, and using him to pinch hit in that one game worked beautifully but that was no reason to stick Chavez in there so often.

As to how A-Rod is overall, his rWAR is 2.0 for this year, vs Jeter's 2.1. Not worth $20-30 million but still productive. That was his worst figure since he was 19 (just 48 games that year). I'd expect a bit of a comeback but not a ton better. He is a $5-10 mil a year player now, should probably be benched vs tough RHP now and then, more rest to keep him healthy. If the Yankees eat well over 1/2 of his $114 mil owed over the next 5 years he could be worth it to someone with a big hole at 3B, if they eat 3/4 of it (reducing annual value to $5.8 mil) he is worth it to almost anyone as a mix-match 3B/1B/DH (the role Bautista & Encarnacion had at first here). I'd take him at that rate, but doubt the Yanks will eat that much of the contract. Heck, if they offered that I'd try to push them to take on 90% (cutting it to $2.28 mil a year) and/or take back a bad contract such as Lind's as well.

Watching the ARod saga unfold in New York this winter will be interesting because this story is just getting started.

You have to wonder whether the Yankees would consider trading him even if they had to pay half his salary. If I was ARod, I wanted out and if I was the Yankees, I'd at least think about it. And if I was a team that has a hard time attracting free agents, I would consider trading for him at 12-15m/year.

From everything I've read the answer is 'yes'. Paying part of someones salary still counts against a team for luxury tax/payroll tax/whatever purposes.

So A-Rod is a major nightmare for the Yankees if they try to get rid of him. Doubt there is anyone with a nightmare contract that is comparable enough for a 'your problem for mine' deal, and just shelling out that much cash for nothing would be a nightmare. Basically the Yankees need luck like AA got with Wells - finding a team that is desperate and rich.

Doubt there is anyone with a nightmare contract that is comparable enough

There aren't any comparable contracts, but maybe you could swing something with a couple of them. A deal to Florida that saw the Yankees absorb the dead weight of Heath Bell and the still useful Mark Buehrle might be a start. But this is going to be up to Rodriguez - does he want to leave and where does he want to go. I think he needs to become a first baseman, which certainly won't happen in New York.

Jose Reyes: 5 year, $96 million - a SS so unless he is willing to go to third base or Jeter moves (ha!) and I cannot see why Miami would dump Reyes for A-Rod. Reyes had a 111 OPS+ last year vs 107 lifetime.

Ricky Nolasco: $11.5 in 2013 - ERA+ below 93 every year since 2008, thus worth about $2-3 mil as a #5/long man.

Heath Bell: $18 mil for 2013/2014 - after 3 solid closing years (40+ saves) fell apart. A dump if dealt, he might be useful to the Yanks in the pen as a #4 or lower guy (Rivera/Soriano/Robertson top 3)

John Buck: $6 mil in 2013 - 75 OPS+, entering age 32 season would be a pure dump of a deal

Guess it all depends. If the Yankees picked up a lot of A-Rod's deal, plus took Nolasco, Bell, Buck off Miami's hands (thus saving $36 mil), and maybe take Reyes as well (upping it to $132 mil) then it could work but odds are Miami would want something else as Reyes does have value still.

Reminds me that AA should be pounding on Miami's door asking about Johnson and Buehrle. Both solid mid-rotation guys who have #1/2 potential.

Listening to the Post Season chatter, it was said that they (NYY Staff) noticed a change in A-rod's swing, which was causing him to pull off pitches. That might help his value, but right now I think he's playing hurt and his ego won't let him change. He's just doesn't stay healthy enough to be of equitable value.

That is a bit unfair to Lind. He has been used inappropriately. Having Adam Lind in a lineup against a lefty and playing first base is going to make his numbers look a lot worse than they ought to. Now having him bat cleanup in that situation takes it to a whole other level. Lind used properly is a 0.5-1.5 WAR player.

I hate this defense of Lind - you're saying that Lind should be used as a platoon (to avoid lefties) DH (to avoid defense altogether) and hit lower in the order (to avoid batting so much)? On what non-September roster does a team carry a platoon DH who shouldn't be playing the field and isn't a particularly good hitter? Very few major leaguers couldn't project to some positive value if limited to only the specific few things they are best at. The Jays should be able to do better than hoping a guy finally repeats a season now 4 years removed.

I agree with AWeb on this one. Also, Lind hasn't even been all that great against RHP over the last few years, failing to crack an 800 OPS against them twice, while posting generally poor OBPs - his OPSs tend to be of the slugging-heavy, i.e. less productive, variety).

However, I could Lind having a bit more utility if he could stay healthy (possibly in a different environment, maybe one with with a better climate and natural grass). Maybe Don Baylor could get him going in Arizona?

It aint much of a defence of him. I am saying that he would be a useful platoon player, and that he would be more valuable on a bench than the eighth or ninth reliever on the roster. The Yankees found a use for Ibanez this year (360 PAs vs. RHP, 65 vs. LHP), albeit that he spent too much time in the outfield rather than DHing due to Gardner's injury.

More than a defence of Lind, it is a criticism of management. The AA/Farrell team together are responsible for his sub-optimal usage this past year, which led to him having negative value rather than small positive value.

So with 9 1st string in the lineup, which includes the DH, that leaves 4 spots available, backup catcher and 3 bench. I will not try to provide a good/decent bench formation, but rather ask about the quality of the 3 non catcher spots. Would Mark Teahen (paid our money) been much different than Vizquel or B Francisco. I assume R Davis was good.
I am OK with Lind being on the bench. Bautista & Scutaro used the bench as a launching pad.

We are working on the top 30 and it is a bit later than usual. The final publication date has not been decided as we wait for all the writers to figure out when they will be done. It will start sometime between Oct 22nd and Oct 29th.

As Gerry said, I suspect the Jays see those 3 as good guys for Buffalo and figure they can be removed and get through waivers if timed right. If not, well, the cost was minimal as was the risk. Wade could be a useful reliever, especially in the depth department as injuries happen.

Congratulations to the Tigers. Who would have guessed that an infield of bad fielders would be in the World Series? If you outpitch your opponents by a large margin and outhit your opponents by an even larger margin, who needs defense? It's nice, by not mandatory.

The Tigers have used 11 pitchers in this post season. 9 of them have produced ERA's of 1.35 or less. Their starting rotation is pretty much untouchable right now. Verlander is maybe the best starting pitcher in baseball. Scherzer was dominant in the 2nd half. Fister was terrific once he got healthy, and Sanchez turned his season around completely after coming to the Tigers. If you have 4 starters like that in the post season, and a few guys who can hit the ball out of the park, you've got the formula to win in the post season. Front line pitching and power.

Looks like the Series will feature the 6th best team in the AL and the 5th best team in the NL, based on season W/L records, barring another Giant (literally) comeback, but I think my San Fran boys are done.

Looks like the Series will feature the 6th best team in the AL and the 5th best team in the NL, based on season W/L records

...but we are not going to pretend that Baltimore was the 3rd best team in the AL, are we? The W-L records are one way of measuring "best", but not the only one.

Tigers-Cardinals brings back sweet memories of 1968. Mickey Lolich came back on two days rest after throwing a complete game in Game 5 to throw another one in Game 7 defeating Bob Gibson. Different times...

It is interesting that it looks like a team that would not have made the playoffs under last years rules could be the WS winners this year (St Louis). Also interesting that it could be a Central battle - the two weakest divisions facing off.

Still, lots of good stories in it. Fielder trying for a WS title - wonder if he can hit as well as his old man did in his one WS shot (391/440/478). St Louis showing that Tony LaRussa & Pujols were not as vital as we all thought.

Tigers-Cardinals brings back sweet memories of 1968. Mickey Lolich came back on two days rest after throwing a complete game in Game 5 to throw another one in Game 7 defeating Bob Gibson. Different times...

That series is my first memory of baseball. Lolich also hit the only HR of his long career (career SLG% of .121) in the 2nd game of the series.

While the Jays/Rogers were holding back, the Tigers were aggressive in adding players both before and during the season, acquiring Fielder, Sanchez and Infante. Add in his prior trades for Cabrera, Jackson, Fister and Scherzer, and Dombrowski is looking like a top-tier GM these days.

Incidentally, I came across this excerpt in a recent Danny Knobler article (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/20568849/dombrowskis-bold-moves-as-gm-have-tigers-two-wins-away-from-world-series):

...

"One thing you always appreciate about Dave is he's never afraid to make a trade," Leyland said. "He has no fear."

Part of that is just his personality. Part of it is experience. And part is that he has come to trust his scouts' evaluations.

Some general managers become paralyzed because they ask for too many opinions. Rival scouts laugh at how the Blue Jays sent nine scouts to watch free-agent-to-be Edwin Jackson in his final three starts this year.

I do not have a scouting joke. I suppose these are jokes, so I am enjoying them.

IMO a GM is accountable & should be. Ash for example. But a journalist, writer or radio, is not accountable. That should not diminish their value to their city. They must protect their sources and are not given enough credit for the digging that they do to uncover valuable information. Equations must be completed to provide the positive or negative value of the final variable and this must be done with your ear to the ground at indecent hours.

The minor league manager provides scouting/development reports to the FO. I think various scouts provide talent evaluations of prospects amateur & minor league and also provide an opinion of how much must be paid in $ and players if a trade is made.
I honestly thought more minor league diamonds in the rough would be acquired by AA because of his extra scouting. I mean a larger quantity. He got F Lewis, Villy, Gose, B Francisco, Mathis & M Olivo at the cost of nothing. some were not minor leaguers. If Santos, Morrow, Escobar, Lawrie & Rasmus develop into elite players then AA has improved the core at a reasonable price.

Dombrowski had $45 million extra to spend. He is a good GM, but whether he has 2 or 9 scouting opinions about possible additions isn't really the issue.

It will be fun to do an evaluation of the Granderson-Jackson trade in a few years to see what the scorecard was. I had forgotten that Coke (Phil, not either of the other kinds) was involved in the trade. Kennedy, Scherzer and Jackson have all contributed significant value at one point or another since the trade. It sure looks like the Yankees may end up losing the trade, with Jackson contributing more than Granderson (not counting the salary differences) and Kennedy providing significant value as a starting pitcher. I wouldn't have expected this.