As of late this afternoon, recon was unable to close off a low, with regard to 92L. Also interestingly enough, there seemed to be slightly lower pressures south of 15N, most notibly south of what certainly appears as a fairly well developed mid level rotation.

Most recent model data from 12Z today shows the European model as being quite consistant in the last 2 days runs, in bringing a low WNWward north of the Greater Antilles, and generally toward the S. Florida area. GFDL12Z run now has a 101kt. hurricane in the S. Bahamas moving WNW. GFS has been consistant in carrying a week low also towards the WNW ( between Cuba and S. Fla. ), though not yet developing it into anything. Latest 18ZNAM now bringing a deepening TS or hurricane west to WNW ( in 84 hrs.) just north of Dominican Republic. NAM doen't start to really wind up 92L until about 48 hr's, while GFDL is a little more "bullish" , showing development practically right away. Will be curious to see if the latest 18ZGFS run starts to join in tandem with some of the other runs, in developing 92L, or if it continues to be unimpressed with the system.

Visually, I am distinctly more impressed with the mid level circulation appeareant on vis. satellite, and yet less impressed with 92L downward pulse with regards to its appearance on IR. I do not see easterly shear, but in fact southerly to SW'erly shear. Upper air charts seem to indicate that an upper anticyclone develops over the system, with SW shear seemingly retrograding westward ( yet never quite to far to the west of 92L ).

Hurricane Andrew was an odd storm and a freak of nature - one that developed in a year so very different from this one. Only similarity at all, is how Andrew, after gaining significant latitude just east of the Lesser Antilles, suddenly bumped into a wall of a building ridge off the Southeast U.S., and suddenly turned sharply westward. In our current year, we are already seeing a potential for some long tracking systems ( al la Bertha ), and tracks which may originate in the W. Carib./Gulf. Would seem to me slightly out of place for a storm to form just east or north of the Virgin Islands, then to track westward from there. No doubt 92L is a weak system which could just as easily dissipate, however cannot help but take notice of model guidance. The consistancy of any model run, as would consistancy among the runs, at minimum bare our attention.

On Friday we are driving from Beaumont Texas to Vortex Springs for a scuba class. The naysayers have said, "Hey, it will be cancelled because of all that activity--like 92L!". By my calculations, the earliest it could, if it did, threaten Pensacola would be mid next week and we will be safely back in Texas with our certifications in hand. It would be nice to have a way to estimate when a storm "might" be somewhere. I based my estimate on the speed and current location. I agree that the models are somewhat useless this far out.

Looking at 92L tonight, the path ahead and the models right now. I think this is an either it does or it doesn't type of system, there will be no in between. In other words, if it develops I see nothing in the way of allowing this to become a strong storm (as a scary GFDL shows) or it may never develop at all as some of the other models are showing.

It is a long way out and it still has to actually develop but being in eastern NC, I have seen storms before go into the Bahamas and make that turn to us. The last few frames of the GFDL show a NNW movement and IF, IF, IF there is a Fay at that time, there does not appear to be a high in place to keep it going straight west.

Next Recon will be very important. Either way not too early for all along east coast to start paying attention.

It is quite curious to see how the GFS continues to handle 92L consistantly. In that, the system as a whole simply continues to move WNW'ward without any significant development. In striking contrast, the GFDL has been equally consistant in wanting to develop 92L into a hurricane and just as consistantly brings 92L along just north of Hispanola, S. Bahamas, and then through the Florida Straights. Well, as of this posting ( and data per the 6Z respective model runs ), the GFDL continues to bring a minimal hurricane towards S. Florida, ( though has backed off yesterdays intensity forecast of over 100kt's ) and the GFS has not budged and continues to stubborningly insist that nothing more than an open wave will ever develop. In contrast, the seemingly more conservative European Model, has been surprisingly consistant in wanting to develop 92L, and carry it WNW'ward on a track curiously similar to that of the GFDL. In years past, I would notice how little more than a one isobar low, perhaps with only a hint of "yellow" on the Euro map, would often come to pass as a developed storm, as forecasted. This is not to say that the Euro has not come up with its own share of "ghost" storms, but the frequency of this seemed far less common to occur. As of the 8/13/08 - 0Z run, the European model now depicts a similar long range track, though now quite impressively developing it as a much deeper cyclone, and for the first time, carries this as a strong system through the E. Gulf, than northward towards the Florida panhandle.

Forecasting is certainly not as simple as "model-casting". Some models such as the Canadian, I simply do not pay much attention to. Others such as GFS, GFDL, EURO, or UK seem to carry a little more weight. Then one need to take into consideration overall conditions, and even overall tendancies of that given year. I would be surprised to see much development of 92L over the next 36 hours. It would not be unlikely for it to disipate altogether, but should it maintains its integrety and continue to show some level of circulation with some maintained bursting of convection, than will be quite interesting to see what the future holds in about 48 hours from now. This is when upper air seemingly improves enough for conditions to become more favorable for possible development.

Next question beyond "if" 92L develops, is where. Low level flow would want to take the system perhaps more westward, while mid level would tend to develop a system slightly farther to the north. Lets see what things look like early Friday...... :?:

I agree that dry air and shear from the nearby ULL(s) is inhibiting development. That said, I am concerned that once this area gets NW of Puerto Rico the environment become more favorable it will develop, and this is backed up by the Globals, Namely the Euro, along with the GFDL, which looks to make this a significant cyclone in the southern Bahamas/Florida Starits. If this occurs. timing will be critical as to when a turn to the NW will occur, where the Euro shows this paralleling the west Florida coast then up towards the panhandle. But that's a few days down the road. I believe 92L will survive the next 36 hours. After that, we will need to pay close attention to it here in the sunshine state. Cheers!

(Post was moved off the Main Page since model projections belong in the Forecast Lounge.)

right now i just dont see AL92 doing anything and i have 2 words for AL93 fish storm. but i do have a ? if AL92 does form and that is a big IF. what chance is there for it going up the east coast as a weak ts. so for the models are fighting on just where it will go if it does form . now this is just me i have 2 track . one it staying on the east side of the island then crossing cuba geating into the caribb. then falling apart . track #2 going up the east coast as a weak ts. staying out over water .
tommy

I'm a long time reader first time poster. The thing that I keep noticing on the model runs is the consistentcy in 92L's track. Is everyone in agreement pretty much of the general track and the big question now is the intensification when it gets to the Florida Straights?

The models are very consistent for 72 hours, so go with that for now. Everything will be revised IF it begins to strengthen.
What 92 L needs to strengthen is a consistent inflow of moisture, which may now be beginning from the SSE. I see subtle changes in the last few hours that are consistent with better structure. It will probably get more attention tomorrow.

I don't see it becoming a depression tonight or tomorrow (unless it's late tomorrow, if that), and the models went from trending to go into the Gulf this morning to curving north before Florida today. I wouldn't believe a single one of them outside of 48 hours right now. Not until this thing develops,. the longer it remains weak the more likely it is to head more toward the west.

I think I'm leaning a little more towards the European model seeing as it is almost dead on if you look back at its Monday forecast and compare to where it is now. It was a little to far north, but was just about perfect as far as longitude goes. Also, it takes a more westerly path than a northerly path because it is a weaker storm right now and would not respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge as much as a stronger storm would.

Ok, perfect for the lounge are more of the models tonight. NOGAPS sticks it into Florida, GFDL curves it north before florida, similar to the GFS, although the extra long range GFS then stalls it out off the coast for a day or so then moves it back westward over Florida (which is possible if a ridge develops over it at the time). The other interesting thing is nearly all the models are making the system into a hurricane.

It is also possible the system moves more westward than thought and into the Dominican Republic, so there is a lot of possibility here too, and if it does that it would mean big impacts for that and Hati, but possibly less for us.

However this is the lounge, these models right now are about as good as throwing darts blindfolded and drunk. Although the trends are what to look for, (check out the animations on the front page) Still look for somewhat a better idea if this system develops, and hopefully we'll know more over the weekend. However, Florida and the Southeast will want to know about the possibility something will be close early Tuesday-Wednesday , and the possibility for a storm stalling off the coast is also there. The bad thing about the current model trends, is if it were to approach Florida it would be at an angle that would make pinpointing a landfall very very difficult. (and again points at and just north of the landfall would see the worst). I still hold out it will remain weak and move more west.

1. Wait to see if the Storm actually develops
2. Watch it closely over the weekend (especially model trends)

Looks like 92L is finally fighting off dry air , shear and SAL. Gaining traction tonight with blowup of convection as opposed to the pattern we have seen over the past few days. Models are struggling with intensity the next couple days creating typical windshield wiper effect with output. Some have hinted at recurve east of the bahamas the last couple runs but that has since changed. What's worrying me is what the 3 and 5 day cone is going to look like when 92L is upgraded which if this convection holds could be tomorrow.

Craig makes a good point that "in the event of development between tonight and tomm. night, we'll soon see 3-5 day cone of error cover a chunk of territory, perhaps including a large swath of the Bahamas and Florida. Would make for a pretty quick "ramp up" in preliminary preparations, even if not suddenly a strong foreboding system. Given the warmer SST's along 92L's potential WNW path, at least some of the conditions would seem to point towards potential continued strengthening. Then again, as Mike pointed out in a recent post, a developing depression or weak storm could slam into Hispanola, and while dumping copious amount of rain ( potentially dangerous in itself ), further development could be thus squelched due to interaction with "the big rock".

I had noticed as others commented on the more recent model trend to recurve close to the Florida penninsula. I had not seen any 8/14 - 0Z data yet suggesting model consistancy of the same, nor a bend back to the west. True enough though, that as a weaker system, the more westward it will likely be driven in the short term.

As a side note.........., I too see the overall organization and appearance of the systems envelope, along with some concentrated convection, as looking better at this time than yesterday evening. :?:

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A real problem there for NHC on their 5 day cone if they upgrade it tomorrow. Going to be a long night there.

Looking very good on all floaters, real twist, swirling... has to have a closed center now.

We'll see soon but what will that cone look like?

we will have a good idea in a hr or so.. NOAA43 is inbound now from about 18.45N 61.07W at 14800ft... based on flight path so far and data... they have dropped two GPS dropsonds on the outer area of the invest... from 14kft... one GPS took 5 mins to hit the water... got what looks like real good data. the 06Z runs and or 12Z model runs should have the data in it.

Given the increased data from recon early this a.m., will be interesting to see "if" and "how" various trending models will ingest the increased data, thus altering or reconfirming recent model tendancies. I would expect at minimum, better initialization ( location and motion ), often a point of contention for some models.

I had not checked, but after the current recon, when is the next scheduled mission?

This morning the model runs are looking much better for turn right and out to sea scenario (including the GFS based models), which may or may not happen, recon influenced model runs may happen later today. Until this storm develops it may be hard to say, but I hope the models continue to trend right and keep it away from the US.

Quote:
This morning the model runs are looking much better for turn right and out to sea scenario (including the GFS based models), which may or may not happen, recon influenced model runs may happen later today. Until this storm develops it may be hard to say, but I hope the models continue to trend right and keep it away from the US.

I'm not so sure about this. The 00ZNOGAPS and UK model bring 92L straight over/into Florida. In fact, the NOGAPS run reminds me quite strongly of Charley's path (and since yesterday was the 4-year anniversary of that storm, I sure didn't need to be reminded of it!)

Those two models are very different from the GFDL and GFS, which are initialized from the same data. What could be causing such a big difference?

I'm not so sure about this. The 00ZNOGAPS and UK model bring 92L straight over/into Florida. In fact, the NOGAPS run reminds me quite strongly of Charley's path (and since yesterday was the 4-year anniversary of that storm, I sure didn't need to be reminded of it!)

Those two models are very different from the GFDL and GFS, which are initialized from the same data. What could be causing such a big difference?

I'm thinking the NOGAPS is wrong on this one. The best way to handle something like this is to try think "Why wouldn't it hit the US?" instead of why it would.

In this case, it looks like it may head more west than north in the short term, which may cause some interaction with Hispaniola, if it does it will tear it up some, and now the models are trending to pull it north, which makes the north and out to sea scenario a bit more likely, and luckily keeps it away from Florida.

Even the GFDL this morning gets the system close to the somewhat coast but stays off shore where no direct effects could be felt (other than large waves). I'm cautiously optimistic about 92L right now not heading toward Florida, but I still want to see what recon finds today and will be more interested at looking at the system over the weekend than today or tomorrow.

Right now I don't trust the models, but I like what I see if it continues trending north and east.

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