Astronomer David Asher (from Armagh University) has agreed with Bill Napier and Janaki Wickramasinghe (Cardiff University) that “dark comets” are real and dangerous.
The following quotes are from a paper by Napier and Asher published in Astronomy & Geophysics.
http://star.arm.ac.uk/preprints/2009/539.pdf

We know that about one bright comet (of absolute magnitude as bright as 7, comparable to Halley’s Comet) arrives in the visibility zone (perihelion q<5AU, say) each year from the Oort cloud. It seems to be securely established that ~1–2% of these are captured into Halleytype (HT) orbits. The dynamical lifetime of a body in such an orbit can be estimated, from which the expected number of HT comets is perhaps ~3000. The actual number of active HT comets is ~25. This discrepancy of at least two powers of 10 in the expected impact rate from comets as deduced from this theoretical argument on the one hand, and observations on the other, is …

Give It Another 6 Months (at least)

When the darkest of days is suddenly thrust upon us and the crucible of tests is brought to bear on every soul; we will have no where to turn but to the light or to the course of our dark imaginings and to what we have erected upon the altar of our own human hearts and then, in those most solemn days of peril, we shall see what remains standing amidst the winds that are designed to shake the foundations of nations…Maranatha – 2012 Forum – 30 Dec 2009

I know what many people are thinking – yet another doomsday prophet trying to milk it a little bit more…

Nothing could be further from the truth – I don’t want a tragic result – and I’ll be well pleased if this marvelous world continues along its relatively happy journey.

It’s not a case of being proven right or wrong, be it for myself or the ancient Mayan civilization. For me it is about tricking/fooling/convincing people into preparing for the worst, just in case. Regardless of 2012 it is probably the best thing you will ever do for yourself and family. Obviously the shock and awe of Dec 21, 2012 has past. So I won’t be putting as much effort into this mission from now – but hopefully enough people have become preppers to make my prior work worthwhile.

Now, about the dates and timing of it all.

We don’t know what the Maya predicted for us, or even if it came from them and not some prior culture. My best guesses – the return of a long period comet or a massive solar storm – are unlikely to ever be predicted precisely.

Comets- relatively small, passing many larger bodies. Every interaction with the gravity of something else changes the path and timing of a comet’s return. The process invokes the butterfly effect. Even modern predictions of recent comets are full of ifs and buts. A current scientist, observing a comet with a period of say 1,000 years, would not even be certain that we would see that comet ever again. And if he/she were to estimate a return date, they would expect it to be inaccurate by years or even decades when it finally returned.

Solar Storm – unless we live in a computer simulation, our Sun is unlikely to operate in a precise and predictable manner. A great example is the cycle between solar maximums: it varies between 9 and 13 years and we have not been able to predict the next maximum (or the number of sunspots) with anything like accuracy, not even now. The best guess at present is that it acts in a random manner. Of course nothing in nature is truly random, but this does mean that it is unlikely that modern astronomers would be able to predict future massive solar storms with any accuracy, even if they had thousands of years of data to work with. More likely is that they would give us ranges and time-frames as they currently do for volcanoes and earthquakes.

But the presumption has been that ancient civilizations had knowledge and advantages (longevity) that we do not. So what I am suggesting is that while pinpoint accuracy is unlikely, it is still possible that they could have been better at a good guess than us today.

For a long time now – longer than the half-life of the average amount of time spent researching 2012 – I have said that the Dec 21 date, being the winter solstice in the northern hemisphere, might be symbolic. It is the darkest day, therefore symbolic of gloom. And it was typically an event observed by ancient cultures…

This from 6 months ago:

My reasoning is that Dec 21, 2012 is the darkest day in the Northern Hemisphere (and more noticeable the further north you are), and so it might have been chosen by the Maya for its symbolic meaning. A day of doom. And that would mean it represents the six months before and after the solstice – otherwise they would have chosen another year.

Just as the Christians choose to celebrate rebirth at the time of Easter, the ancient Mayans selected the winter solstice period to be the end times, with the rebirth to follow:

Christmas is commemorated just after the winter solstice, which is the darkest day of the year. As the hours of daylight begin to increase again, so also the light that comes into the world in Jesus begins our shift out of darkness. Similarly, the ancient formula for determining the time of Easter is to celebrate it on the first Sunday after the first full moon following the vernal (spring) equinox. At this time, spring is in full bloom, and life comes to reign again upon the earth.

My opinion goes like this: both the return of a long-period comet and the cycles of massive solar storms were predictable by ancient cultures – all it took was thousands of years of observations (comets in the sky, auroras at low latitudes) combined with solid math. Neither are likely to be predictable to a certain day after thousands of years, but their best guess could be a specific year. Not wanting to name day, the message that we have received is the darkest day of a year, to represent a small era of prediction.

A massive solar storm, or the return of a comet, could be happening real soon. But I advise everyone to stay on alert beyond Dec 21, 2012 – that might not be a date to take literally.

I figure that the winter solstice is the darkest day of the year, so the Maya (or whoever gave them the calendar) chose this date for its doom qualities, to indicate that it will not be a pleasant year. Consequently, the event could happen 6 months either side of Dec 21 2012. If it happens after Dec 21, many could be caught off-guard.

The only reason for pinpointing 2012 is the Mayan calendar. And therefore the most likely possibilities are those that could have been accurately predicted thousands of years ago.

I personally believe that choosing the winter solstice was the Mayan way of saying 2012-ish, rather than Dec 21 2012. The solstice itself cannot harm us, and it would be a big coincidence if the doomsday occur on the darkest day of the year.

I was ready for a Mayan-predicted doomsday 6 months ago, and my state of extreme readiness continues until June 21. If a solar storm greater than the Carrington Event, or the return of a long-period comet (dark or not) that could have been awesome in ancient times, occurs in the next 6 months, I will be claiming a victory for Mayan science.

If the same happens in, say, the next 10 years, then personally I will be feeling that the Long Count calendar was essentially correct, but I won’t be trying to convince anyone.

One Comment »

A subscriber sent me an email, in response to this post, says in part:

I actually wound up with one year plus worth of food, a roof/gutter fed water collection system with two 55 gallon food grade water barrels,and a Berkey water purifier,also a Katadyn back packer model. I have absolutely no regrets about collecting all this stuff. I bought foods that I eat on a consistand basis,so how can I go wrong.

Reaching a single person is awesome.

I don’t know, will never know, how many people I have reached. I don’t know how to classify this – perhaps in a Buddhist direction – but I have always believed that the best person for a job is he/she who is best able, regardless of whether it is fair that they are the one to do it. Having the first 2012 site set me up to provide info to many, and if I were to indirectly save a single life that would make it all worthwhile.

I only started stockpiling when the media asked for something visual to match my words… I even tricked myself into being a prepper