5:13pm: Despite shares edging higher on Friday, the local market declined over the past week. May trading got off to a negative start as investors question whether the biggest bank stocks can continue to rise and the biggest miners come under pressure from falling iron ore prices.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 1.4 per cent, over the past week to 5458.1, while the broader All Ordinaries Index also shed 1.4 per cent to 5438.8, as local shares declined despite a buoyant lead from the United States where the Dow Jones Industrial Index hit a fresh record.

After the US Federal Reserve continued to reduce its stimulus and provided a more upbeat outlook, investors were expecting the non-farm payrolls data due to be released tonight local time to show 220,000 new jobs were created in April.

"The result could be even higher, but even if the critical jobs data comes in below expectations at this stage the Fed is going to stay true to the course of its tapering program," BlackRock Australia head of fixed income Stephen Miller said.

The ASX200 and the All Ords both added 0.2 per cent on Friday as three of the big four banks lifted and investment bank Macquarie Group rose 0.9 per cent to $58.70 after reporting a bigger than expected 49 per cent jump in annual profit but not lifting the dividend as much as analysts had hoped. Macquarie posted a 2.8 per cent gain for the week.

4:28pm:Banks led the way back into the black after the market traded underwater for most of the session, as investors ended up rewarding Macquarie for a solid full-year profit result.

The ASX 200 clawed back early losses and enjoyed a late rally to close 9 points higher for the day at 5458.1, while the All Ords gained 8 points to 5438.8.

CBA, ANZ and Westpac all closed between 0.5 and 0.8 per cent higher, with NAB the only one of the Big Four to lose ground, sliding 0.4 per cent. Macquarie closed 0.9 per cent higher after investors initially sold the stock down.

Along with NAB, BHP was a drag on the market, dropping 0.6 per cent. Coca-Cola fell 1.5 per cent.

Energy stocks traded lower as a group after Woodside fell, while gold miners also fell, led by Newcrest Mining.

'‘Last week we announced the acquisition of Kenwood Vineyards in the US. We have not been in talks with Treasury Wine Estates or looking to acquire any further wine assets in the US market at this time,” Coutures says.

Treasury Wine shares soared as much as 14 per cent today after the Australian reported Pernod Ricard was interested in buying its US assets. TWE earlier today also said it hadn’t been approached by the French beverages giant.

4:04pm: Here’s what to look out for next week, courtesy of AMP Capital’s chief investment strategist, Shane Oliver:

In the US, expect a modest increase in the non-manufacturing ISM index (Monday) and a decline in the March trade balance (Tuesday). Fed Chair Yellen will deliver a Congressional testimony on Wednesday.

The ECB (Thursday) may unveil further monetary easing in response to weak bank lending, deflation risks and the still strong euro. However, this is more likely to take the form of more interest rate adjustments rather than quantitative easing as the ECB does not appear to be ready for the latter just yet.

Chinese export growth (Thursday) is expected to return to positive territory after the weakness of recent months but imports are expected to remain subdued. Inflation data (Friday) are expected to show a fall back in CPI inflation to 2.1% and continued falls in producer prices.

In Australia, the Reserve Bank (Tuesday) is expected to leave interest rates on hold for the eighth month in a row. The RBA is expected to reiterate that a period of stability in interest rates is appropriate. The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (Friday) is likely to reiterate the same message.

On the data front in Australia, expect to see a 2% rise in building approvals (Monday), another solid trade surplus (Tuesday), a slight rise in retail sales (Wednesday), a slight 5000 fall in employment (Thursday) after three months of good gains and a bounce back in unemployment.

And his outlook for markets:

While investors should allow for more volatility in share markets, including the likelihood of a significant correction around mid-year, the broad trend in shares is likely to remain up.

Share market fundamentals remain favourable with reasonable valuations, improving earnings on the back of rising economic growth and easy monetary conditions helping entice investors to switch out of cash and into shares. So any dip should be seen as a buying opportunity.

Fairfax Media’s Jonathan Shapiro – who will be at this weekend’s festival – sums it up thusly:

“The more controversial topics the meeting will address relate to the transition to the post Buffett/Munger future. At 83 and 90 years old the pair – who have spent 49 years in charge of Berkshire – are as sharp-witted as ever, perhaps thanks to a diet of cherry Coke and peanut brittle. But the older they get, the more they are quizzed about their succession plan.”

3:22pm: The growing trend away from fossil fuel investments has taken a local twist, with hundreds of customers of Australia's four major banks said to be set to close their accounts in protest against funding of coal and gas projects in an action organisers say threaten up to $120 million in investment.

The initiative, organised by activist investment group Market Forces and climate campaigner 350.org, represents an extension of the fossil fuel divestment movement that has taken hold in northern Europe and threatens to remove major investors from the share registers of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and other major Australian-listed companies.

While the origins of the movement are rooted with ethical investors, it is increasingly taking hold among mainstream investors, with Norway's huge government owned pension fund in the process of considering a fossil fuel divestment strategy.

In a further sign of the trend, London Stock Exchange-owned FTSE Group and the world's largest fund manager BlackRock earlier this week announced plans to launch an index that tracks the performance of stocks specifically excluding those linked with fossil fuels.

3:03pm:Transfield Services has “noted” the recent run-up in its share price – 15 cents over the past five trading days to $1.05 – and in a statement to the ASX confirmed it is “currently engaged in refinancing activities… as previously outlined during its February 2014 results presentation”.

The company is proposing to “approach the high yield bond market” in the US, “as well as certain persons outside the United States”.

The company says the money will be used to “restructure [its] existing debt package”, and that this is “expected to be finalised next week”.

3:00pm: It’s interesting to see just how eerily quiet all asset classes are right now, IG's Chris Weston comments on the lack of volatility in markets:

This week, EUR/USD for example has traded in a 114 pip range, which is a slight expansion from last week’s 70 pips range, which in itself was the narrowest weekly range since the inception of the EUR in 1999. Last week USD/JPY had its narrowest range since January 2012, while GBP/USD since 1988. The US 10-year treasury has traded in a 23 basis point range since the start of January – the tightest range over the time frame since 1978, while the S&P 500 can’t shake its 1840 to 1880 range.

It feels like something has to give and perhaps the spring has been pulled back too far, but what is likely to cause a sizeable pick-up in range expansion and volatility?

A black swan could still cause it, but issues in China, Japan and Europe are widely known and not likely to cause a sizeable risk off move at this stage. Perhaps tensions in Ukraine could be the trigger, with news flow today taking a turn for the worse, centring on government military operations in Sloviansk.

If history is to be our guide, these periods of ultra-low volatility (when seen in all asset classes) are usually a strong pre-cursor to a big pick up in volatility.

2:38pm:Myer chief Bernie Brookesplans to stay at the helm for “a few more years” and has reaffirmed that the chain will next year return to profit growth for the first time in five years as department stores enter a "prettier patch.”

“I plan to be here for a few more years ... I didn’t sign on just for the David Jones merger,” said Mr Brookes, who cancelled his retirement plans in February and signed on for an indefinite term.

Premium department stores have been losing market share to specialty retailers and mini-majors for more than 15 years, but Mr Brookes is confident the trend in Australia will reverse, pointing to the “playbook” written by US and UK department stores such as Nordstrom, Macys and John Lewis, who are enjoying strong sales growth.

“No matter how we look at it I think it’s the start of a prettier patch for department stores - we’re starting to see that in our numbers and we’re excited about next year,” he said. “I’m increasingly comfortable that department stores will gain market share over the next few years.”

Mr Brookes has also played down the threat from mini-major and fast fashion retailers such as H&M, Zara, Uniqlo, Sephora and Williams-Sonoma, who are forecast to open about 250 stores over the next few years, snaring as much as $2 billion in sales.

Mr Brookes says international chains will struggle to find suitable stores in key locations such as the Sydney and Melbourne. When they do find flagship stores, they take the place of dozens of smaller specialty retailers.

2:28pm:GMO co-founder and guru Jeremy Grantham has released his latest quarterly letter and it’s a fascinating one, worth reading in full.

As per usual, Grantham writes on bubbles – how long they can last, and at what point they can be expected to pop.

Cutting to the chase – Grantham sees the US sharemarket as overvalued, but reckons that, thanks to the “Greenspan-Bernanke-Yellen put”, the S&P 500 will push out to 2250 before it collapses, or a good 35 per cent above where it stands now.

The 2250 figure quoted above is equivalent to two standard deviations from the long-run average, a handy, if arbitrary, indicator for Grantham that a bubble has reached epic proportions.

He believes that if the market has learned one thing, it’s that the Fed won’t stop bubbles inflating, but it will be there to catch the speculators when they fall – and so investors will chase the market higher.

“And although nothing is certain in the market, this is exactly what I believe will happen,” writes Grantham.

He then has his best guesses for the next two years:

That this year should continue to be difficult with the February 1 to October 1 period being just as likely to be down as up, perhaps a little more so.

But after October 1the market is likely to be strong, especially through April and by then or in the following 18 months up to the next election (or, horrible possibility, even longer) will have rallied past 2,250, perhaps by a decent margin.

And then around the [US] election or soon after, the market bubble will burst, as bubbles always do, and will revert to its trend value, around half of its peak or worse, depending on what new ammunition the Fed can dig up.

2:24pm:LinkedIn has suffered a first-quarter loss as the online professional networking service ramped up its investments in projects aimed at attracting more users on the lookout for better jobs and career advice.

Despite the setback, the results announced overnight surpassed the analyst projections that sway investors. LinkedIn has cleared Wall Street's financial hurdles in all 12 of its quarters as a public company.

Nevertheless, LinkedIn has fallen out of favour with investors amid concerns about the company's rising expenses and slowing revenue growth.

LinkedIn's stock slipped $US5.83, or 3.6 per cent, to $US155.39 in Thursday's extended trading after the latest numbers came out. The shares are about 40 per cent below their all-time high reached last September.

The Mountain View, California, company lost $US13.4 million ($14.50 million), or 11 US cents per share, during the first three months of the year. It marks LinkedIn's largest quarterly loss since going public in May 2011. It earned $US22.6 million, or 20 US cents per share, at the same time last year.

LinkedIn added another 19 million accounts during the period to end March with 296 million users.

Total pages views - a telling indication of users' interest in an online service - reached 11.5 billion during the quarter, up from 11.1 billion at the same time last year. The page-view volume, also exceeded the final three months of last year, an encouraging sign after user engagement had waned in the previous two quarters.

‘‘The US non-farm payrolls data due later today will be in focus as investors look for direction,’’ says Tim Radford, a strategist at Rivkin Securities. ‘‘While earnings have been relatively good, concerns remain over slowing economic growth in China.’’

According to the China Index Academy, a private data vendor, 45 of the 100 cities surveyed in April experienced month-on-month property price declines, up from 37 cities in March.

This was mostly driven by declines in tier 2 cities, where the share of cities with falling prices jumped to 46% in April from 25% in March. The share rose to 46% from 42% in tier 3 and 4 cities, and remained at 25% in tier 1 cities.

Nomura concludes:

These weakening prices reinforce our view that the property sector passed a turning point in Q1 and will weaken through the rest of 2014.

We maintain our view that the property sector is China’s top economic risk. As leading indicators, such as sales and new starts, dropped significantly in Q1, we see risks of a sharp correction in this sector taking place in 2014.

We expect the weak property sector to act as a drag on investment and lead to GDP growth slowing to 7.1% y-o-y in Q2 from 7.4% in Q1.

We maintain our view that the government will have to loosen monetary policy by cutting the reserve requirement by 50bp in Q2. We believe the likelihood of an interest rate cut in H2 is rising, although it is not yet part our baseline view.

1:39pm:Treasury Wine Estates has tried to defuse market speculation Pernod Ricard is interested in its US assets, which sparked a rally in the shares this morning.

In a statement, Treasury denied being approached by or being involved in talks with Pernod Ricard.

Shares are currently up 6.1 per cent at $4.075 after earlier jumping as much as 14 per cent.

Analysts have relentlessly run the numbers on the Treasury Wine Estates company, arguing that, among other actions, the struggling US business should be sold. It would be worth in the billions of dollars.

However, new Treasury Wine Estates boss Michael Clarke has stated that the US wine business was an integral part of the company and was not up for sale.

1:38pm:We are in a colossal bubble once again, the London Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in a blog post:

It is worse than 2008 on many indicators, though the epicentre of risk is ever more concentrated in sovereign debt, especially the debt of those countries without a central bank (you all know who I mean).

Today’s chart from Andrew Lapthorne as Societe Generale is remarkable. It tracks the nominal yield on a classic mix of different assets held by funds. The return on SG’s Quality Index is close to an all-time low of 2.4 per cent (though this of course pick up pre-deflation fears, as well as speculative mania).

He says there has been a rotation out of momentum stocks – ie, the US tech sector – and into value stocks and those with high dividend yield. That is not as comforting as it sounds.

“Is this yield and value-orientated positioning reflecting a more cautious outlook? So far we doubt it. April also saw the largest junk bond issue of all time, and corporates continue to issue large quantities of debt at incredibly low yields.

"So despite the US Federal Reserve continuing to taper and the back up in US bond yields … the yield on a global asset portfolio is close to where it was this time last year.”

It was a similar message in Neil Mellor’s morning note from Bank of New York Mellon. The euro sovereign markets have gone mad. (Note that Irish 10-year yields are nearing US Treasury yields – the global benchmark price of money – and Spain is not far behind).Borrowing costs are back to 2008 levels, yet the debt burdens are massively higher, and still rising.

1:25pm:The $3.3 billion stake in private hospital operator Ramsay Health Care owned by the company’s late founder and chairman Paul Ramsay will be transferred to the Paul Ramsay Foundation which will “be of enduring benefit to the Australian community.”

The billionaire, Australia’s 11th-richest person, passed away at his home in Bowral on Thursday night after a short illness. The details of the 78-year-old’s wishes, which related to his 36.2 per cent stake in Ramsay, were announced to the market by the company today.

The Foundation is administered and controlled by Ramsay deputy chairman Michael Siddle, as well as Peter Evans and Tony Clark. The trio have had a long-term association with Ramsay and are also directors of the company. Ramsay never married and had no children. He is survived by two siblings.

Ramsay was a very private man and the main activities of his charitable foundation are not widely publicised. In December 2011, Ramsay donated $300,000 to the actor Kevin Spacey to support his foundation’s work in supporting arts education.

Ramsay’s Foundation is listed as a ‘major donor’ in the 2008 annual report of Parent Infant Family Australia, a non-profit organisation supporting vulnerable families during run by the official welfare agency of the Catholic Church CatholicCare.

The announcement will quell speculation among Ramsay shareholders and the wider market about the future of the cornerstone stake. Although the announcement leaves room for some shares to be sold, the implications of this are not expected to be very significant.

1:22pm: These are the kind of global trends that Macquarie is hoping will turn it back into the "Millionaires Factory" in the coming years:

New York-based investment bank Lazard has highlighted the resurgence of global dealmaking, by reporting a doubling of its revenues from advising on mergers and acquisitions in the first three months of the year.

A resurgent M&A market, which has pushed the value of deals past $US1tn already this year – the earliest that level has been reached since 2007 – helped Lazard record its highest ever first-quarter operating income, of $US540m.

Ken Jacobs, Lazard chief executive, said that the recent upswing in M&A activity reflected a return of corporate confidence in the long-term economic prospects of the US.

“The financing environment has been favourable for a while, but the real shift is that people are now much more constructive on the macro environment in the developed world,” he said. “That was the necessary condition.”

Lazard is engaged in a number of high-profile transactions, including GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis’s $US20bn asset swap, Vivendi’s $US23.6bn sale of SFR to Numericable, and General Electric’s $US16.9bn bid for Alstom’s power and energy business.

12:26pm: The old adage, “sell in May and go away”, has been put to use in the US market, where fund managers would have done well to follow the idiom.

In Australia, it has its own unique application for the S&P/ASX 200 Index beyond the correlation to Wall Street. May is when banks, which account for around one-quarter of the benchmark by market value, report earnings and briefly trade without the right to their next dividend, prompting a share price fall.

Aurora Funds chief investment officer John Corr said “clearly it looks tempting” to follow the advice made famous by the trading rule.

“There’s been lots of people try and pick the top of the Australian banking cycle and a lot of people have got it wrong.”

In the US, the trading strategy is thought to have its roots in the seasonal northern summer holiday period when profits are locked in and trading volumes thin out. The adage also coincides with the lead-up to the end of the fiscal year for Australian managers.

Strategists are alert to the onset of May, having witnessed shocks in three out of the past four years.

Credit Suisse’s Singapore-based Asia equity strategist, Sakthi Siva, considered the “sell in May and go away” theory and advocated for global investors buying back in during late June and early July.

“If we look at the last four years, 2010 to 2013, corrections in [the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index] ranged from 5 per cent to 10 per cent between April 30 and June 30,” the strategist said in a report last week.

The same index has recorded rallies of 12 per cent-plus during the second-half in three of the last four years. The outlier was 2011.

12:10pm:Dividends are again the focus of bank earnings amid record share prices, modest credit growth and a benign environment for loan losses, but ANZ's intention to smooth out the seasonal volatility in its dividend payments isno guarantee of higher dividends from its counterparts.

That said, Westpac is speculated to be considering a one-off special dividend and NAB is also tipped to better its interim dividend payment. First-half cash profit among the three majors is expected to be around $10 billion.

Credit Suisse banking analyst James Ellis took the view that the booming New Zealand economy - indeed the first developed market economy to raise interest rates in this cycle - could benefit the wider Australian banking sector which dominates lending across the Tasman.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand upgraded growth in its last policy statement and a surge in construction activity stemming from the Christchurch rebuild has supported the economic recovery.

Westpac results are due Monday and NAB on Thursday. CBA has a conventional financial calendar with a June 30 rule-off date but will address investors May 14 in a trading update.

11:32am: French beverages giant Pernod Ricard, whose spirits brands include Absolut vodka, Beefeater Gin as well as GH Mumm champagne and Australian wine Jacob's Creek, is speculated to be interested in some of the Treasury Wine Estates business and is being pointed to today for the sudden run-up in the share price.

The second biggest drinks company in the world recently made its first purchase in California's celebrated wine region last week when it bought Kenwood Vineyards from sparkling winemaker F.Korbel & Bros.

It gives Pernod Ricard its first property in Sonoma County which is seen as a beachhead to break into the US wine market. Interestingly, Treasury Wine Estates owns a vineyard in Sonoma, called Chateau St Jean, as well as the largest winemaker in the Napa, Beringer.

However, new Treasury Wine Estates boss Michael Clarke has stated that the US wine business was an integral part of the company and was not up for sale.

Analysts have relentlessly run the numbers on the Treasury Wine Estates company, arguing that, among other actions, the struggling US business should be sold. It would be worth in the billions of dollars.

Shares are still up 10 per cent at $4.225, after earlier soaring 14 per cent.

11:20am:Ukraine is bringing back military conscription with immediate effect to deal with a spreading pro-Moscow insurgency in its east, according to a decree by interim president Oleksandr Turchynov.

The measure was being taken "given the deteriorating situation in the east and the south ... the rising force of armed pro-Russian units and the taking of public administration buildings ... which threaten territorial integrity," Mr Turchynov's office said in a statement overnight.

Ukraine's parliament voted on April 17 to "recommend to the acting president to restart conscription into the Ukraine armed forces without delay" in order to "bolster Ukraine's defence capabilities in connection with aggression from the Russian Federation".

Ukraine scrapped compulsory military service for young men only this year, under a law introduced in 2013 by Viktor Yanukovych, the Kremlin-friendly president who ended up fleeing mass pro-Western demonstrations two months ago.

Ukraine currently has 130,000 personnel in its armed forces. With reserves, this could be boosted to around 1 million.

11:05am:Sales of new homes rose again in March, capping a solid quarter that showed a broadening recovery in the housing sector.

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) said its survey of large builders showed sales of new homes rose 0.2 per cent in March from February, taking the quarterly increase to 5.8 per cent.

In the March quarter, sales of new detached houses rose 7.0 per cent, while the volatile multi-unit sector eased 0.2 per cent. Detached house sales increased in all of the surveyed states led by a 20.2 per cent rise in Queensland.

"It's encouraging to see that during the March 2014 quarter all of the surveyed states recorded increases in detached house sales," says HIA economist Diwa Hopkins.

10:59am:The good, the bad and the outright ugly in Macquarie's results, according to Deutsche Bank analyst James Freeman:

The good – a strong beat on the FY14 result: MQG delivered a stronger than expected result, with net profit of $1,265m which was 5% ahead of consensus of $1,204m. MQG beat its own guidance range, delivering 49% growth in FY14, vs guidance of 40%-45% growth. The result was strong across the board, with every division showing improved earnings, including FICC and Banking & Financial Services for which MQG was expecting broadly flat results. Compositionally, trading income was stronger which the bears may point to as an area of concern, however this offsets abnormally low other operating income and lower write-downs in MEC and as such less of a concern.

The bad – a miss on the dividend but adjusted payout ratio higher: Despite the stronger result, MQG’s final dividend of 160 cents per share was 10% below our 177cps forecast and 13% below consensus. The 67% payout ratio for 2H14 was well below the 79% in pcp. Nonetheless, MQG shareholders did receive a special distribution on SYD; if we include this in the payout, the adjusted payout ratio would increase to 98%. MQG’s surplus capital also remains strong, suggesting a comfortable position to increase the payout ratio in future.

The ugly – FY15 guidance disappointing but likely to be conservative: Guidance was disappointing, with FY15 net profit expected to be broadly in line with FY14, with a better result if market conditions continue to improve. While MQG’s recent track record on guidance has been conservative and performance fees are likely to be higher than MQG has budgeted for, we think the market will still be disappointed with the benign guidance.

"We expect the ugly to dominate the market’s thinking, leading to share price underperformance," Deutsche says.

10:47am:Investors have hammered Padbury Mining in the first few minutes of the iron ore tiddler exiting a trading halt on Friday, sending the shares down 85 per cent to 0.5 cents.

Padbury was locked in a trading halt for almost three weeks after the spectacular failure of a $US6.5 billion funding deal it struck to finance the stalled Oakajee port and rail project in Western Australia.

Padbury shares were trading at 3.3 cents when the company entered a halt on Friday, April 11 at the behest of the ASX, about four hours after announcing the deal. They had more than doubled after the news was released.

Padbury did not reveal the identity of the funder or the terms of the $US6.5 billion deal.

Almost two weeks later, it confirmed mounting press and industry speculation that the financier is “private equity” firm Alliance Super Holdings, which is ultimately controlled by colourful Sydney entrepreneur Roland Bleyer. The revelation was followed by news the deal had been terminated.

No port for now ... Padbury shares nosedive after the spectacular failure of a funding deal. Photo: RON D'RAINE

10:44am:Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd has attracted four US institutional investors as the main backers in a $49.5 million capital raising, to be announced on Monday, that will fund it through to the financial close of its $US3.5 billion Magnolia LNG export project in the US, reports the AFR’s Street Talk column.

Three of the four are understood to have been early investors in US LNG export pioneer Cheniere Energy, riding a rocketing share performance that they hope may be replicated, at least to some extent, by ASX-listed LNG Ltd.

The 90 million shares are being sold at 55¢ each, a 16 per cent discount to the last close before Thursday’s halt.

But the discount narrows to about 8 per cent when based against the 30-day volume weighted average price, reducing the impact of the stock’s strong run since mid-April.

Two of the US instos are expected to lodge substantial shareholder notices as a result of their investment, having already picked up some shares on-market. That would make them the next biggest investors in LNG Ltd behind China’s CNPC and Stephen Copulos, a private investor in KFC franchisee Collins Foods.

The catalyst for the fresh interest is the lodging this week by Maurice Brand-led LNG Ltd of the application with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for the Magnolia project.

That locks in a time frame for approving the terminal, with all final clearances expected by next year.

10:32am: Both of the majors that reported this morning are being sold off: Macquarie is down 1.2 per cent despite posting a bumper $1.3 billion full-year result, while Myer has slumped 4.15 per cent to 18-month lows after reporting a slight decline in third-quarter sales.

10:31am: The federal budget will lift the retirement age to 70 by 2035, Treasurer Joe Hockey will announce today.

This date is almost 20 years earlier than the year 2053 as recommended by the government’s commission of audit released on Thursday. It will affect everyone born in 1965 and onwards.

Presently, the retirement age is set to rise from 65 to 67 by 2023.

Bringing forward the date as recommended by the audit commission further suggests the government will not implement some of the other harsher recommendations of the audit commission, such as bringing the family home in to the income assets test in 2027-28.

Mr Hockey will make the announcement at a speech in Sydney at lunch time. It comes amid a storm of protest from welfare and disability groups, doctors, unions and the education sector following the draconian measures recommended by the audit commission.

These include the Americanisation of the health system in which people on higher incomes would be excluded from Medicare and be forced to cover their health costs through expanded private health cover. The audit also recommended a $15 co-payment to visit the doctor, a concept the government will adopt at the budget but probably at a lower level.

However, one controversial suggestion – to give the states sole responsibility for health and education and give them the power to access income tax revenue and raise their own – will be discussed when the Premiers and Prime Minister Tony Abbott meet in Canberra Friday for the Council of Australian Governments meeting.

9:54am: Mining and engineering services firm Boom Logistics has lost a significant customer in the BHPB Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) and announced planned job losses in it Queensland business.

The company said in a statement to the ASX that it “has been unable to reach agreement on commercial terms with BMA at a level sufficient to allow a return on assets employed”.

“Boom will continue to support BMA through an orderly transition to a new supplier. The transition will involve a restructuring of Boom’s Queensland business, including redundancies, physical relocation of assets and closure of certain depots.”

Boom also released a trading update that said third quarter trading was difficult, blaming in part its exposure to the failed Forge Group.

9:25am: Australia's biggest department store Myer has reported a slight decline in total sales for the third quarter to $646.5 million partly due to the disruption to its store network from refurbishment programs but has notched up a rise in same-store sales growth, with Myer hitting like for like sales growth in seven of the last eight quarters.

Myer this morning reported that total sales had fallen 0.93 per cent, while same-store sales growth - which removes the impact of new store openings - lifted 0.24 per cent for the 13 weeks to April 26.

Myer boss Bernie Brookes said the marginal decline in total sales reflected the continued significant sales impact of the refurbishment of three of Myer's top 20 stores and the commencement of refurbishment at the Macquarie (NSW) store in February.

He said trading at the department store's Melbourne city flagship site had benefited from the recent openings of new retailers in the CBD including the first stage opening of the Emporium development at the back of the Myer store.

Among key categories for the department store cosmetics has now delivered eight consecutive quarters of growth, Mr Brookes said, with its range of Myer exclusive or house-brand fashion and housewares products also performing strongly during the third quarter.

The Dow eased back into negative territory for the year, a day after closing at its first record high of 2014.

The April jobs report, which is expected to show US employment rose at its fastest clip in five months based on a Reuters survey of economists, could further confirm the economic momentum is back on track after a dismal winter.

Early Thursday, US time, jobless claims unexpectedly rose in the latest week, though the underlying trend continued to point to an improving labour market. US consumer spending recorded its largest increase in more than four and a half years in March.

US April car sales showed a rebound from the winter, and General Motors shares gained 1.2 per cent to $US34.90. They followed an upbeat view of the economy from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Facebook, up 2.3 percent at $US61.15, and other Internet shares were among the day's best performers, helped by strong results from Yelp, whose shares gained 9.8 per cent to $US64.02.

"Some of the growth names are coming back. They've been really kind of beaten down mercilessly, and I think (the bounce) has to do with the fact that earnings are being perceived as OK in some of those sectors," said Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 21.97 points or 0.13 per cent, to 16,558.87, the S&P 500 lost 0.27 points or 0.01 per cent, to 1,883.68 and the Nasdaq Composite added 12.896 points or 0.31 percent, to 4,127.451.

9:15am:Flight Centre Travel Group managing director Graham Turner has flagged the potential to open a retail travel business in Ireland after his company agreed to acquire a Dublin-based corporate travel manager.

Travelplan Corporate, is expected to report revenue of nearly €30 million ($44.8 million) this year and will bolster earnings in Flight Centre's FCm division.

Before the acquisition from Abbey Travel Group for an undisclosed sum, Travelplan Corporate was already part of the FCm travel management network as a licensee and it will continue to operate as FCm Ireland and complement its business in the UK.

This represents Flight Centre's first international expansion of FCm since it launched a corporate business in Dubai in 2007.

Mr Turner said although the acquisition was relatively small it made sound strategic sense because it was a cost-effective, profitable and low-risk entry to Ireland, which was an important hub for corporate clients.

"We know the business and its culture well, given its long-standing involvement with FCm as a licensee, and can see real opportunities to work with Travelplan's people to expand in the years ahead and to grow bottom-line profits,'' he said.

9:01am:Macquarie Group has flagged that 2015 profits will be similar or better than this year, as the financial services reported better than expected income of $1.27 billion for the 12 months ended March 31.

Macquarie said annual net profit jumped 49 per cent on the previous year, according to a statement made to the ASX. That compares to expectations that net income would print at $1.23 billion, or 45 per cent higher than 2013.

Macquarie's official guidance in March was that full-year earnings would come in about 40 per cent to 45 per cent higher than 2013.

The statement also outlined that chairman Kevin McCann would stand for re-election at the company's annual general meeting in July, reversing an earlier decision to step down from the board.

9:01am:Paul Ramsay, the billionaire founder and chairman of private hospital operator Ramsay Health Care, has died after a short illness.

Ramsay Health announced on April 24 that Mr Ramsay had been admitted to hospital in Europe in a serious condition.

It is believed he suffered a heart attack while sailing in Spain. After a brief stay in a Spanish hospital he was flown back to Australia and died in Bowral, NSW, overnight.

Mr Ramsay, who was valued by Forbes at $3.7 billion in March, was 78 years old. He owned 36.20 per cent of Ramsay Health, a stake worth $3.3 billion.

Mr Ramsay was single and did not have any children, raising questions over exactly how his fortune will be managed and the fate of his stake in Ramsay Health.

He founded the business in 1964 with a single psychiatric hospital in Sydney. Today the company has more than 150 hospitals located across five countries – Australia, England, France, Indonesia and Malaysia. It employs more than 30,000 people and admits over 1.4 million patients each year.

9:00am: Local stocks are poised to open little changed as overseas investors took a breather, after strong economic data in US and UK ahead of the May Day holiday in Europe and key US unemployment figures out tonight.

@322pm comment"While the origins of the movement are rooted with ethical investors, it is increasingly taking hold among mainstream investors, with Norway's huge government owned pension fund in the process of considering a fossil fuel divestment strategy."Hypocrisy lives on forever! how was that pension fund accumulated....i'm at a loss

Commenter

BearshapedBull

Location

Mugpunters Lounge

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 4:08PM

Norway "Do as I do, not do as I did".

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 4:25PM

Keep an eye on the US market. It almost hit a new high last night. If it does hit a new high and go up the market may go up in May for a change. The sharemarket is nothing if not contrary!We may not want to be caught Short!

Commenter

It's All About Making Money

Location

Lennox Head

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:44PM

You can keep on waiting as the mentioned escrow shares were already realeased from voluntary escrow yesterday (1 May 14).

Commenter

Really?

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:42PM

Humour me this. Allegedly our economy is envied worldwide. So why is that not reflected in our stock market.

I keep hearing the Union Movement wrecked the English economy but their their chart is still going up while ours has done a u turn!

Commenter

ryan

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:34PM

Um if you are talking union and the UK did you ever hear of Maggie T?

Commenter

Wwwish Lion

Location

Moes Bar - its Friday

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 4:00PM

The stockmarket performance isn't relative to government debt and surpluses. It is relative to company profits and future expected profits. We went through a China-led mining boom which has come to a grind and our stock market reflects that. All this talk about government policy, GDP figures etc affecting the market is well overstated. Pick good stocks in profitable companies with good management and low debt and you will do well. If you are always spooked by politics like Mitch, you will not do well.

Commenter

Sticks

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 4:50PM

Ed. I noticed a piece in the SMH yesterday stating many people haven't been contacted by thier financial advisor. Just wondering if any of your readers sell a mind reading machine I could purchase which would inform me when is the best time for me to contact these clients. As a financial advisor I spend the bulk of my time returning clients calls and responding to their queries. Could you maybe do a piece in your paper entitled if you want to speak to your financial advisor you should pick up the phone and call just like you would when you need your doctor, accountant, solicitor etc. Financial planners don't have mind reading machines.

Commenter

Steve

Location

Sydney

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:29PM

should'nt the FI ring the client to thank them for their trailing commission?

Commenter

no fees

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:56PM

How about you actually get in touch with your entire client base once a year to conduct an annual review of their finances? Should be a no-brainer, especially if you are collecting ongoing fees from them.

Commenter

confused

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:59PM

Is your post for purposes of humour? When I go to the doctor or accountant I don't have to deliver them continual fees. As Australia goes broke as a result of your industry, they're going to come looking for you.

Commenter

JohnBB

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 4:10PM

No Fees: We don't receive trailing commissions here. We are fee for service. Having said that. My service to clients was cheaper when we were commission based!

Confused: Prior to the GFC we would ring clients each year as a minimum and they would abuse us for calling while they were having dinner or were busy or they just wouldn't spare the time. They preferred it all wrapped up into a small ball and tucked in behind their ear so they didn't have to make any effort.

John BB: Yes it is humour. I find the argument that people make no effort and won't put in any time to review their finances or speak to their advisor and then blame the advisor for not calling them a joke. My wealthiest clients didn't become wealthy by hoping the advisor would call them. I find it funny that people are prepared to blame everybody but themselves.

Commenter

Steve

Location

Sydney

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 4:38PM

Guys any reason for the spike in DTL today?

Commenter

CP

Location

Orange

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:28PM

I am thinking us goldies need the Russians to ramp up a bit of action with Ukraine on the weekend!

Commenter

Golden Oldie

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:28PM

Tend to agree with the pessimists at this stage regarding the markets.

The underlying problem in the US and Europe have not been solved. Irrational buying at irrational prices always occurs and no one can believe that a stock can fall 20% in a week. When the market panics there is usually a big run up then a cliff like fall. Then everybody tells each other its just an adjustment.

I'm cautious about ANZ as I was a big supporter I think its now more a real gamble. Will the window of opportunity for Smith stay open long enough before the inevitable crash???

Still holding shares but generally selling when marginally profitable.I'm sure I'll lose when the crash comes.

Commenter

Harry Rogers

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:07PM

In my opinion the "Sell in May" is a reaction to the "buy with your eyes closed" in the preceding months. What Wall St broker wouldn't want to pump the market before he takes a nice "Well Earned" break from selling snake oil.

Commenter

Cynic

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:50PM

I really am not sure it will go down this May. The US will need to make hay while the sun is shining. When they do go down it will be a decent old correction, but that won't happen until the second half of the and then look out!

Commenter

cyril

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:38PM

Almost 9% of MTU shares coming out of escrow on Monday. Was expecting a selloff by today :(

Commenter

GS

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:48PM

5.50 aint to bad for entry but could be a lil waiting game for the slump,marketwise, in the next month or so....if they catch the cold as well.

Commenter

BearshapedBull

Location

Mugpunters Lounge

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:06PM

You can keep on waiting as the mentioned escrow shares were already realeased from voluntary escrow yesterday (1 May 14).

Commenter

Really?

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:36PM

Oh damn, I just re-read the announcement after that comment above. I was reading the 3 May 20(13) & stopped there.... Whoops! That'll teach me to be lazy hehe

Oh well I'll keep waiting for a selloff anyway! It's not bad, but I would like cheaper :)

Commenter

GS

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:51PM

Looks like Mermaid Marine shorts getting closed today.

Commenter

GS

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:21PM

yep lots of rotation in the market today , just cut my trading long , I like the stock and still hold it in my Super but concerned about the overall market stability (yawn the whole sell in May thing! , Ukraine and China worry me more)....

Commenter

Chris

Location

Sydney

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:42PM

A mermaid in shorts, now there's an interesting thought.

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:43PM

futures bright new vessels new contracts new profits so don't despair in 12 months they will be cruising.i hope

"We maintain our view that the property sector is China’s top economic risk. As leading indicators, such as sales and new starts, dropped significantly in Q1, we see risks of a sharp correction in this sector taking place in 2014."

EDS... Everyone deserves a long lunch on a Friday ;) keep up the great job.

Commenter

Wwwish Lion

Location

Moes Bar - its Friday

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 1:32PM

Obviously they have pinched one of your Friday lunch lines @Wwwish lol

PS - good luck with CWN, I am on it with you

Commenter

Captor

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:50PM

Cheers Captor, i think we will have to ride out CWN for a long ride as sri lanka, manila, and maybe vegas play out....02/10/2016 $32?

Commenter

Wwwish Lion

Location

Moes Bar - its Friday

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:29PM

@125pm what a guy just keeps giving, wish we had more like him.RIP Paul

Commenter

BearshapedBull

Location

Mugpunters Lounge

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 1:30PM

I worked for Paul Ramsay for some years. A true gentleman with old school values I would say he is the nicest person I met in my business career. A shame he has passed away at a still young 78. RIP.

Commenter

There should be more like him

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:33PM

Hear,hear! He was a smart man who recognised early it was all for nought, just a game.

Commenter

Harry Rogers

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:21PM

NIB responded favourably to the National Commission of Audit Report this morning & up at lazy 3.25% today :)

Plus also a future takeover target when Medibank lists!

Commenter

GS

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 1:00PM

I felt much better about this post at 1PM when it was almost 4%.... damn IT technical issues making me look bad! lol

Commenter

GS

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:20PM

I see that5 as a short-term lift. The CoA proposal amounts to an abolition of Medicare, just as Labor warned before the election. To implement such a scheme will take more time than there is between now and the next election and there is no certainty that "one-term Tony" will still be PM after that, particularly if Labor pledges to maintain the Medicare status-quo.

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:58PM

"if Labor pledges to maintain the Medicare status-quo"

I would think a pledge by any political party is a sure sign that they will not honour it. Sadly an historical fact. .

Commenter

Harry Rogers

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:18PM

@Harry, but as the last election showed, the electorate is remarkably gullible.

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:50PM

With the budget looming, there will be an increased risk in some stocks. Childcare is one. Services dependent on medicare and the PBS are also at risk. Perhaps MMS may cop another hit if they change the FBT rules. With the pension age rising, listed super funds might get a lift.

Commenter

Calculator

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:51PM

Why the massive plunge in GDY???

Commenter

Fred

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:42PM

Equally, why the massive spike in Transfield Services (TSE)? No news i can find explains it and they've been tracking up for a few weeks now. Somebody knows something i'm sure.

Commenter

Grinch

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 1:28PM

And massive plunge on NXT - Any info for the ill informed?

Commenter

Andrew

Location

Perth

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:05PM

I see a lot of commentary about SBM on this blog so it has obviously been a favourite play of many punters. Do these stocks eventually come back in the fulness of time or is SBM destined for the scrap heap?

My problem stock is OZL, but fortunately I am getting a dividend at the moment. It also looks like there is some light at the end of the tunnel but I am not confident enough to average down, just yet anyway.

Any comments would be appreciated, Thanks

Commenter

"P" Plater

Location

Sydney

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:28PM

SBM always bounces back it tracks the gold price. Buy now and you will double you money at some stage.

Commenter

repoman

Location

Dorrigo NSW

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 1:43PM

PP

After years of pain I bit the bullet and sold out for a substantial loss. I can't see any catalyst on the horizon. I am going to trade PNA between $1.50-$1.70 with the aim of recouping my $15 k loss!U should think about doing same...sometimes we just hold when in fact the first loss is often the least painful.

Commenter

Ox

Location

Kensi Pk

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 1:45PM

Guys really appreciate you replies. Happy to hold OZL while getting a dividend equal to term deposit and still a good chance something good will come out of Carrapateena. I am already working PNA in a similar manner, I like this company and see it north of $2 in a slightly improved environment.Not sure about buying SBM though, the 10 year chart looks a bit ugly and gold can still go down if the $US stays strong. So I guess that's why I am wondering do the good stocks always come back. Happy and profitable trading to you both.

Commenter

"P" Plater

Location

Sydney

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:46PM

with copper tanking PNA is a bit bearish till the cycle finishes maybe 1.45ish,was kind before but lately its one way traffic.

Commenter

BearshapedBull

Location

Mugpunters Lounge

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:36PM

Hey Eds, any chance you can get one of your Market Analysts to give us the rationale behind the sell in May theory!

EDs: Sure Craig. Posting now some of a story from a few days back that has some answers. Chrs

Commenter

craig

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:17PM

thanks for that!

Commenter

craig

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:36PM

And the next person named to appear at ICAC is... the NSW police minister. This state is rotten to the core!

Commenter

Fred

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:04PM

So what's the chances that Tony Abbott could find himself dragged into the NSW ICAC enquiry over improper funding. A fund raiser for he and the NSW Liberals is answering questions in ICAC about NSW Liberal election funding. Improper practices have a way of becoming infectious and contaminating everything they touch. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-liberal-party-official-john-caputo-admits-giving-cheques-to-chris-hartcher-20140501-zr22j.html One Liberal Premier gone, one Federal Minister under a very black cloud, one PM what next?

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:20PM

At the rate things are going there'll be no one left standing at Macquarie Street.And certainly no one game enough to take over the reins!

Commenter

Human Trader

Location

Sydney

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:24PM

Thank you ICAC, I can do without pay tv whilst this circus continues, Kate McClymont for PM, and what a great job Judith Ireland does, I reckon rupert would be disappointed that quality journalism and investigative reporting is not part of his stable.

Commenter

Tony Soprano

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:42PM

You seem to be across all of this Mitch. Is Gillard in jail yet or still being investigated by Vic police? That aside, why are we talking about these issues here?

Commenter

Tim

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:51PM

@Tim, because crooked deals by crooked politicians can wreak havoc to markets when exposed. Not only to the deals exposed but any other approvals they have given or denied come into question. Markets do not like that uncertainty. But I know that you only asked the question because its serving Liberals that are being found out. If it was serving Labor politicians you would be bringing it up yourself as you did with the Gillard issue.

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 2:41PM

As a relative new player, I hear what everyone is saying about sell in May and go away. I presume that means you sell the ones you are happy to take a profit on or even a small loss and not to buy any new stocks. Is this right?

I am more into stocks with future growth in mind so have no intention to sell.

Commenter

"P" Plater

Location

Sydney

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:00PM

I have my eyes on about 12 stocks that are due to pay or go ex dividends/distributions in June & July. I will take advantage of any price weakness from the "sell in May" crowd.

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:23PM

Childcare centre owner GEM heading down. I would not be surprised if the Budget included allowances for nannies as part of its childcare policy at the expense of centre-based childcare. After all we can't have the children of "women of calibre" mixing with the commoners that inhabit normal child-care. God only knows what non-elitist ideas they might be exposed to particularly if they come into contact with one of mitch's grandkids.

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:46AM

AFJ going in the opposite direction so same same but different. SP correction due on GEM for awhile now no matter.

Commenter

BearshapedBull

Location

Mugpunters Lounge

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:40PM

Added to DUE @ 2.17

Commenter

Wwwish Lion

Location

Melbourne

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:20AM

good timing on that CWN buy in, these could be a little more topsy turvy but the yields there...sustainability might be an issue.good luck.

Commenter

BearshapedBull

Location

Mugpunters Lounge

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:23PM

Thanks BSB, im holding DUE hoping it just provides steady Divs...i like the regulated nature of the pricing for consistency, also holding SKI

Commenter

Wwwish Lion

Location

Moes Bar - its Friday

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:31PM

Myers days are numbered. The best markets are high end and low end. The mid market is being avoided. You want high end go to DJs. You want cheap go to Big W or something. Myer would be better off going towards the high end like DJs and getting in some good labels (Armani, Zegna, Lloyd, Nudie ....).

Commenter

Ryan

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:12AM

As a former resident of the Geraldton area in WA where Padbury is based it doesn't surprise me what has happened here. Lots of dodgy business characters tied up in this, part of the world, more infamous for its drug culture than the culinary rock lobster delight it should be know for.

Commenter

craig

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:01AM

ps - some of the best beaches is Australia though as you can see from the photo

Commenter

craig

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:29AM

Joe Hockey with his recent ridiculous show will ensure investors have little confidence in him and this government. The 'scare campaign' will have impact on ASX development in the foreseeable future.

Commenter

Viking

Location

Sydney

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:01AM

TWE takeover? Incredible price action this morning.

Commenter

kefa

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:58AM

Doesnt look as though QAN will be falling any time soon very strong in the face of this correction...... I wonder who might have been caught short on this one?

Commenter

ASX

Location

Historian

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:53AM

No suprises with SBM this morning. I've been racking my brain all morning trying to remember who was telling me that this goldie was a gift? If that person is aroundwould they advise doubling up again now at 19c? I remember they doubled up at 21c.

Commenter

ASX

Location

Historian

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:49AM

ACR ???How low can it go with products in the market & a profitable company ?? Me thinks its a safe gamble around $1... any thoughts ??

Commenter

clueless

Location

wonderland

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:33AM

Safe gamble - no such thing! I'm about to buy some more as I think it's oversold - FDA scare could easily be resolved nad yes, still quite profitable.

Commenter

Yin or yang

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:40AM

ACR will only be a safe buy when UBS gets tired of shorting it. Their announcement the other day said they had 9m+ shares for stock lending, so a way to go yet. Then they could have yet another go because it has worked out so well for them, but no-one else, so far.

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:44AM

paid 1.03 not long along, remember UBS got 9.8 million shares to short the sh*ite out of it,starving the company of market capital and financing,bringing the SP and the company to its knees for their own profit. so not happy days at all,either the FDA lets go off the left one and UBS releases the right one,then the testosterone will kick in....till then up/down as the daily UBS plaything.

Commenter

BearshapedBull

Location

Mugpunters Lounge

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:51AM

Its a safe gamble when the SP has less downside risk & more upside opportunities. I am, as it is, calling it a gamble just because of the 'FDA' who has been a pain in the ...

Commenter

clueless

Location

wonderland

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:08AM

blaaaaa 0.978c

Commenter

BearshapedBull

Location

Mugpunters Lounge

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 3:50PM

Something afoot with TWE - up over 8%. Perhaps a trading halt by the end of the day to see an announcement of an offer for the company. Well here's hoping.

Commenter

The Recruiter

Location

Sydney

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:29AM

The Smurfs at play again. http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/blame-the-smurfs-suspicious-trades-are-fleecing-investors-20140430-37h43.html#ixzz30LgIWgLW

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:07AM

i aint no smurf but i did buy HZN for 34c in the days before the proposal trade halt, my purchased based on their announcement regards the stanley project after a trading halt for that.so the insider trading didn't include my massive 10000 shares grab...honest.

Commenter

BearshapedBull

Location

Mugpunters Lounge

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:41AM

Time to sell in May and go away ?

Commenter

Malvik

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:19AM

It would appear the time is cherry ripe for the mother of all shorts, Allan, Liberator, anyone?

Commenter

Captor

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:18AM

you forgot Gordon Akman lol

Commenter

herman

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:42AM

I think you will find Alan has no pocket money left. SBM has dropped 50% since the prediction of the next great recession and the next big gold rush.

Commenter

ASX

Location

Historian

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:51AM

I hope Liberator is still holding the mother of all shorts at 5100. It's only 300 points down for him to break even.

Commenter

Hugo

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:01AM

Hugo - you need to stop with the lies. We might start calling you Pinocchio! You obviously missed all the shorts called and won last year by the Liberator! I haven't traded in so long I forgot what a CFD stood for! But boy I made some cash on housing since Aug last year! SADDLE UP!

Commenter

Liberator

Location

SEQLD

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:49AM

aha you are still there lol

Commenter

Captor

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:02PM

now would be the time to short the banks..especially the NAB. Thursday when NAB report, they'll likely drop 3% @open, then slide further for a few weeks.

Commenter

no banks .. no party!

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 1:23PM

All gold shares slipping today. Mantra to self - stay away from SBM no matter how 'cheap' it gets.

Commenter

Yin or yang

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:17AM

Every goldy getting slammed indeed! Every day falls of 2-5% and sometimes more. They are starting to be oversold and with the the recent poor data from the states one would think a bounce is coming. DXY is not looking healthy and poor results from non-farm tonight would surely send this below its technical, hopefully sending gold higher. A lot rides on tonights data and I think more risk sits on the side of the markets than gold, that's my uneducated opinion anyway

Commenter

NSC

Location

Melb

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:51AM

Good idea @ Yin, in fact be very cautious with all goldies at the present time. Gold is right on the critical support level of $US1280 at the moment. I am thinking down is the next move for the precious metal. A drop in gold price and the usual sell off in May is going to bring some very scary share prices for gold stock holders.

Commenter

Gold Balls

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:57AM

I'll give you my SBM for a packet of peanuts if they go much lower...

Commenter

Wwwish Lion

Location

Melbourne

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:21AM

No one likes being locked into a losing stock, but, I am long and have been (gulp ... sob ... yes it hurts) for some time on NCM, KCN, and SLR.Also lost on CCU (aaaaarrrrggghhhhh).

They are part of my diversified portfolio, and I believe in the long term they will reward even if (when I look at them) it gets harder and harder to argue with myself.

Commenter

Joe the POM

Location

Geelong

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 12:00PM

yes and one day Gold will be a cheap commodity worth near zero....not. get a grip guys it goes up then down, but over time it goes up.

Commenter

repoman

Location

Dorrigo NSW

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 1:50PM

I think it is fair to say for whatever reason it really is true that you sell in May and go away. The proof of the pudding is in the eating and we got our first bite yesterday, another nibble has already been taken this morning!

Commenter

craig

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:07AM

I agree with you, we will be down to 5400 today and are heading for 5100 by end of June

Commenter

herman

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:13AM

yanks slowly (but surely) start going on summer holidays (so volumes decrease), as the weather gets colder, they slowly start returning by October (volumes increase).Not the only factor, but me thinks it is the main one/.BTW - there's always an exception to the rule...eg, idiotic FED QE

Commenter

no banks .. no party!

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:17AM

No logical reason but it does seem to have become a self fulfilling prophesy.

Commenter

Yin or yang

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:27AM

its a self fulfilling prophecy... everyone thinks alike & more so because in the last 5 years most of us have become traders rather than investors. Go on.. sell !!

In my view we should only allow people to purchase a property if they are an Australian resident or citizen.

Meanwhile I'm happy to wait until I see a big house price correction since time is on my side

Commenter

No foreign house buyers

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:06AM

I'll take it as you are either renting or staying at home with parents ?

Commenter

forced home owner

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:54AM

really sick of smart comments above, presumably from those who bought a property b4 the prices were artificially pumped up to enrich a single generation.good on u, yr an investment genius.

Commenter

j.

Location

syd.

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:33AM

short answer, I am allowed to live in my cousins investment property (fully paid off) for free on the condition that I pay for the utilities and keep the place in good condition. A juicy deal if you ask me. So I am fortunate in that regard.

Commenter

No foreign house buyers

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 11:47AM

Someone was posting about what happens to bank share prices to 30th June. The table below shows the movement in the Big 4 from their highest point for April to June to 30th June for each year. CBA NAB WBC ANZ AllOrds 9/10 -19% -19% -25% -17% -14%10/11 -3% -8% -13% -10% -8%11/12 0% -7% -8% -8% -8%12/13 -6% -13% -15% -10% -8%

Make of that data what you will but the CBA, as the only share that does not go ex-div in the April to June period, is the most stable. Also if the consistent 8% fall in the AllOrds from the highest point for April to June to 30th June for each of the last 3 years is maintained this year as well, then the AllOrds will be 5076 at 30th June 2014. The table shows that the fall in the banks is a significant component of that 8% but at least there are dividends payable in July to help compensate

Commenter

mitch of ACT

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:01AM

thanks for the heads up,mate.

Commenter

BearshapedBull

Location

Mugpunters Lounge

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:12AM

I have successfully sold calls on my bank holdings such that I get a little extra cash on top of the dividend.. but this year I have had such a strong run up that it has been too risky.. ( I want to keep them ) ..I plan to just wait until Dec when they usually march ahead.

Commenter

Lean Too

Location

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:38AM

This is your strength, Mitch... keep the sunny side up :)

Commenter

clueless

Location

wonderland

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 10:51AM

You forgot to mention how its all the Libs fault but otherwise good info, thanks.

Official US figures point to GDP growth of 0.1% for Q1. But now many banks are revising that figures down. Deutsche Bank estimates that Q1 GDP contracted 0.4%, Barclays lowered its estimate to -0.2% and Goldman Sachs cut its tracking estimate to -0.1%.

That would put the US in recession territory. Meanwhile the US debt clock keeps ticking away ever higher ... and the bankers at the Federal Reserve are desperately clinging to their printing presses ... the president is over in Asia promising various countries that he will help them defend small shoals and islets. And what is US media doing (who are supposed to scrutinise politicians? They're worried about what a basketball team owner said to his 4 times younger girlfriend!

Obama and his court eunuchs in the media are fiddling while the US is burning.

Commenter

Dr No

Location

Sydney

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 9:37AM

For those that like to gamble, take a look at FAR. Results from the first drill will be released in the next two weeks.

Commenter

tim_r

Location

Brisbane

Date and time

May 02, 2014, 9:28AM

Similarly for Red Metal RDM - something going on there at the moment - could be worth the gamble also.