Category Archives: iPad

The time has come to check in on Apple. This last year is the first time since the iPhone launch that Apple has had a down year. That’s how good they are that it has been a long run, but it’s also because the smartphone a la iPhone has been such a giant in the market these last years. I’m going to go through some of Apple’s key products and the ones they are rumored to be working on and comment on how good they are and what is likely to happen in future. How good are Apple’s new products and what does that look like as things change in the next 2 to 5 years.

iPhone

We must talk about iPhones because the vast majority of Apple’s profits and revenue come from the iPhone. Smartphones are an incredible moneymaker for Apple in both respects.

Has the iPhone Peaked?

Let me look at the facts and my tea leaves. Apple’s 2015 results starting in October 2015 and ending Sep 30 this year for the first time shows a downturn. Sales in Q1 2015 (Christmas season) did manage to beat sales in Q1 2014, but not by much. Q2-4 were disappointing but not unexpected. Still, I’m cautiously optimistic.

There are 6 or more key factors here:

1. Chinahas been a huge driver of growth for Apple these last few years, and China has been struggling some this last year. Apple’s iPhone sales dropped considerably in China last year. With growth there showing vulnerability, we saw a lot more sales of cheaper Android phones. Apple dominated the high end everywhere, however. And its smartphone profits have been stellar.

2. The Global Economy had a rough year after several up years in a row. Not nearly as bad as Donald Trump said, but bad enough to help dampen the upgrade cycle. A bit troubling in the last month is that the stock market is up, but Apple stock is pretty flat.

3. Pent up Demand for Larger iPhones. There was a lot of pent up demand for a larger iPhone when the iPhone 6 Plus came out in Fall 2013. This pumped up the numbers for Apple in 2014. With giant spike in 2014, it was hard to top that.

4. 2015 was an “s” year. Our comparison year (2014), was the iPhone 6 year. This last year was the 6s year. Generally, the whole new form factor gives sales a boost in that year.

5. 2016 is an “s” year — again. Apple’s stock has been beaten up all year on the expectation that we were not going to get a real fresh form factor iPhone 7 but essentially iPhone 6s2 or something. That’s pretty much what happened but Apple called it iPhone 7 anyway. Awesome, but the same form factor. Sales have been very good but word in the tech press recently is more iffy on Christmas. If iffy wins, Q1 2016 — the biggest quarter of the year — might be disappointing — or not. Somehow Tim Cooke’s Apple has come through in Christmas season and maybe he will pull a rabbit out of the hat once again.

6. Smartphone sales are slowing except at the low end. Prices are rock bottom in some of the less affluent markets. No one really makes money at those prices, but market share does give you something to brag about and Google (maker of Android) can profit from ads on even the cheap smart phones that themselves don’t make money.

iPhone 7 and 7 Plus

I love these iPhones! They are super fast, gorgeous and 3D Touch rocks the house. Apples 3D Touch and force touch elsewhere keeps getting better and more transformative. Apple keeps upping the ante and other folks have to play serious catch up. Cameras unbelievable especially on the Plus with its 2x! Wide color. Best smartphones in the world without question.

iPhone in 2016

iPhone 10. Apple has Concocted an iPhone 8 with a new form factor for the year of 2017 – the 10 year anniversary of the iPhone. If the rumor mill is right, and I think they are, new iPhones and iPads are going edge to edge in 2017. The screens are going to be better again! And bigger with the same phone size in your hand. I think this will be very popular. The 5.5″ iPhone 8 Plus will go up to 5.8″! The 4.7″ iPhone 8 will be just under 5″. Everyone expects the iPhone 8 or 10 to sell really well. 2017 isn’t likely to be a down year.

iPhone Beyond 2017

I wouldn’t place a lot of bets on iPhone 9 being a banner year just because it is going to be hard to top iPhone 8. Which will be an s year. And, the headwinds against the iPhone may stiffen a bit more. All I know is that Apple is making almost all the profit in the smartphone space. They make incredible and jaw-dropping products at regular intervals. And the question would be who can beat them? They might lose some share, but not the crown would be my bet.

Other Products and Services in the Current Mix

None of these other products and services are likely to take the place of the iPhone any time soon if ever. But there are a bunch of them that are important. Here’s what Apple has already out there.

MacBook 12 and MacBook Pro

I am a big fan of both the MacBook 12 and the MacBook Pro 13. I’m writing on the Pro 13 as we speak. Apple’s trackpad is far better than PC trackpads to date. Apple’s screen while not as high Rez as some is as good or better as any other screen out there. This is a laptop, not a hybrid laptop tablet like the latest from Microsoft and other Windows products. But, you now have the beginnings of a very cool touch bar that is Apple’s answer to a full touch screen. Apple is way ahead on the high end generally, but we have seen better quality on the PC side. There has been a delay of the release of new MacBook Pros which I chalk up to the ambitions of the touchbar, the considerable slimming down of the MacBook Pro. I love having a 3 lb MacBook Pro. It’s very powerful, yet thin and light. The MacBook is a close competitor at 2 lbs. You can’t beat that. I must say, having 4 ports instead of 1 on the MacBook 12, is luxurious and welcome but that extra one pound is the price.I expect to see a return to grown on the Mac side of the house. Including the iMac.

iPads

iPad Pro 12.9. I’m a fan of the iPad Pro for its delivery of a huge screen in a 1-1/2 lb form factor. It’s fabulous for reading news like reading a magazine and for any other application where size matters. This guy is scheduled to grow larger with the edge to edge plan Apple has in the works and may show up in that size in Spring. There is a lot of room for improvement on the iPad side of the house. Not in the hardware so much, though, edge to edge will be great. Software needs to get more love from Apple and I think it will if not perhaps as fast as I would like. Developers see the writing on the wall and write first for the iPhone and give their second best to iPad in many cases.

iPad Pro 9.7. This wonderful-sized iPad is still great. I like the bigger iPad partly because it is a new form factor and is exciting because of that. But this 9.7″ number soon be be either lighter or same weight with a bigger screen, is awesome. Can do lots for you and the smaller size is pretty lovable.

iPad mini 4. The mini has gotten second shrift as far as I can tell. Processor lags the other sizes for some reason. Is that an avoidance of the iPhone perhaps? Don’t know. I’m to the point where the mini is the odd man out. But still great when I use it. It does get serious competition from the iPhone 7 Plus right now which is faster with 3D Touch and fits in my pocket (kind of). If the size is right at the time, you get iPad apps that often have extra features that the iPhone is denied. Example would be Scrivener for iOS where the iPad version has a corkboard and the iPhone doesn’t.

Apple Watch. I’m an Apple Watch fan and think it could be better. I wear mine every day. I upgraded to the Series 2 when it came out. Mine is rose gold with a black Sport band that I bought because I wanted the black (this is a black year with the black iPhones) rather than navy blue. Love the look. Definitely upped my exercise game since buying my first watch. Use it much more as time has gone on as far as fitness goes. Also, speed bumped up a lot when Watch OS 3 came out and then with the faster new processor in Series 1 and 2. Plus GPS! This is the wearable of choice and will be positioned beautifully as time goes on and wearables get more and more important.

Apple TV. Have the 4 but not really using it much. Never have done much with Apple TV but I’m not really a TV person. Seems sexy enough. But TV is stymied due to Cable and all the regional controls that Steve complained about. Still waiting to be compelled further.

Rumor Mill

Self-Driving Car

I heard the rumor Apple had 1000 employees on the car project and they probably need that many or more as they ramp up to get into this market. As software becomes more important than hardware in this space and disruption occurs presenting new opportunities for new players, Apple has a great shot here. I am very excited about but not so sure I could afford an Apple car. I can afford iPhones and MacBook Pros but cars are kind of steep when they get as cool as Apple likes to do.

Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality

Tim Cook is talking about this and I believe we can count on entries into this emerging field. Augmented means you have some kind or another of heads up display such as on your windshield in a car, in your contact lenses or glasses. This stuff is closer to real and coming soonish (1-2 years).

Eventually, Virtual Reality will follow and Apple will be there. But one thing at a time, although, I’m sure R&D is already well underway here to.

AI, the Cloud and Services

This is Apple’s Achilles heel compared to Google, FaceBook and Amazon and even Microsoft. Apple is structured for selling hardware and software as its main gig and that structure deemphasizes these important services of all kinds. All I can say for now is Apple has its work cut out for it and they realize they have to put the pedal to the metal here to make sure their weakness isn’t a deal-breaker down the road. Apple is touting rapid growth in services. They are acquiring really cool AI companies and people rapidly.

Health and Fitness

Apple doubled down on fitness when introducing Apple Watch Series 1 and 2 this September. Some of the other great features like notifications, and simply having a connected computer on your wrist were not reemphasized. Healthcare is the kind of market Apple can sink its teeth into. It’s giant-sized and has a strong consumer element not just business to business hospitals and such. Apple needs to leverage consumer, it’s longtime strength. There is lots of room for innovation with health. If I knew more real time information about what’s going on in my body, I could do things that would help my health not hurt it. For example, if I can see that the candy bar I just ate spiked my insulin and made me start storing fat, I would think twice. If I could consult the unpleasant impacts my dietary adventures were having over time, I would be less tempted and Apple could throw in medals for diet, sleep who knows what not just steps, stands, exercise and movement calories. I could take charge of my health. Much of that could happen from my wrist but I’m not sure we won’t venture into implants pretty soon. If your dog has a gps tag implanted and humans have large pacemakers implanted without harm done, what’s to stop this trend from going into much wider adoption?

The Home And Beyond

Amazon Echo and Google Home. Yes, the home is coming and Amazon is ahead here. Google Home is pretty weak by comparison. And Apple isn’t on the board yet. Apple TV is the closest thing you have if you don’t count Apple Watch and iPhone which I do count to an extent. But home is a slow lumbering beast. I still have my smart lightbulbs in their packaging. I hear it’s a hassle to get these things working. However, all the devices in the home, office, street, clothing will be smart as time rolls on and Apple will be making sure they are there innovating their hearts out but making sure their entries are awesome not just adequate.

Apple: too Big to be a Growth Company?

From a Stock Investment point of view, maybe. It’s a well known fact that the bigger you get, the harder it is to grow fast because your base is such a large number. Big successful companies like Apple can also become complacent.

With Stock troubles the last year and a half, though, Apple has had some time to introspect and get the house in order to fight the competitive battles they need to fight. The biggest immediate challenge is that Smart Mobile is peaking. Most of Apple’s target market — knowledge workers, professionals and creatives already have iPhones and iPads. Now what?

The first thing Apple has done is put out 3 great versions of their 3 stellar products: iPhone 5s, iPad Air and iPad mini with retina. All three are based on Apple’s new best in class A7 chip and are incredibly responsive. The 2013 retina MacBook Pro is also a great machine. Jony Ive has taken over software design now and iOS7 has a fresh new look and is better than ever. Their current product portfolio including OSX Mavericks is peerless!

Growth and Innovation

Let’s grant that Apple has one arm tied behind its back as a Growth company due to its decade-long rapid growth and enormous sales and profits. But Innovation, design and excellence are Apple’s proven strengths. How can Apple not innovate? That’s what they do. I’m not the only one impressed with Tim Cook’s competence, intelligence and commitment. Steve Jobs is gone. But intensity, vision, aesthetics and creativity are alive and well in Apple’s secret sauce man — Jony Ive.

Jony Ive Has the Goods

I’ve just finished reading the new Jony Ive book by Leander Kahney and it is quite enlightening. Ive’s father taught him design, curiosity, craftsmanship, observation and innovation from the cradle. His father led the development of design education in England and helped Jony get into the best design schools and firms. Jony was winning prizes for design and turning heads while still in high school. The best part might be that he is just as driven as Steve Jobs was. And Jony isn’t working alone, he has handpicked an amazing team of designers.

Ive joined Apple in the early nineties and designed the 2nd version of the Newton. His team also did a Newton mini-laptop that looked a lot like the translucent Bondi Blue iMac a few years later. It just got better from there.

Tim Cook Makes it Happen

Tim Cook is not Steve Jobs but he kicks ass and gets stuff done like no one I’ve ever heard of. He’s not even a product guy but he is super competent and obviously loves being the guy running Apple. He will do whatever it takes to keep Apple in a leadership position in technology.

Angela Ahrendts is Coming

I’m cheating a little here as Ahrendts hasn’t even started yet as Apple’s new Retail chief, but I’m super excited just from seeing Angela’s Ted Talk on The Power of Human Energy. She is inspired and inspiring and I’m glad to have her on the team. She’s done wonders at Burberry and is pretty geeky too. She’s done stuff with retail at Burberry that Apple could only hope to do until now.

In the area of computer software and hardware and now Post PC smartphones and tablets, Apple is the innovator. No one else is close…

The Future Unfolding

New Product Categories

We’ve been hearing rumors of a real TV or a much cooler Apple TV for years now. More recently there’s the iWatch rumor. I’m guessing these both are going to happen. Cool stuff is starting to show up in Cars. It is safe to say Apple will address the digital home and car near term. But we will have to wait a little longer to see the results of their efforts.

Sapphire Glass Plant in Arizona Looks Promising

I like this new development. First Apple is manufacturing the Mac Pro in the US. Now they are building a Synthetic Sapphire plant near Phoenix. My take on this is that Tim Cook is on the move. I think he wants to build up Apple’s manufacturing capability in the US. He says he is just getting started on this.

What About Google?

Google is Apple’s number one rival. They have shown themselves to be good at search and cloud services. Android’s 80% global marketshare in smartphones is nerve-wracking to say the least. Google CEO, Larry Page, plays big and will help the industry move forward rapidly in the coming years. Lots of their innovation is vaporware from my perspective, though. Self-driving cars and Google Glass are innovative but ideas are a dime a dozen. Let me know when you sell those cars and a few regular people adopt Google Glass.

That said, Google is a great spur to Apple to keep innovating. Just lately Google bought Nest the hip digital home thermostat and smoke alarm maker founded by, Tony Fadell. And Google sold Motorola to Lenovo. I can’t tell whether they are scarily great or just shaking things up.

I’m Optimistic

Google is out there and Apple has to play its best game to do exactly what it wants to do in the technology space. But Apple has lots of cards to play in this undertaking. They have the money, passion, people, design leadership and cutting edge engineering and manufacturing. I can’t wait to see what is coming down the pike next. It’s going to be good!

A lot has happened in the world of Apple this last year. Apple has released new Macs including powerful MacBook Airs, OSX Lion, iCloud, the iPhone 4S with iOS 5 and just announced a strong OSX Mountain Lion release coming for Summer.

Along the way, Steve Jobs died – on October 5. A tragic loss to millions around the world. Even so, Apple is on a roll of immense proportions and is showing no signs of slowing down. Its stock valuation is larger than any other corporation in the world, but you know that already.

If you’ve been here before, you know that Apple is a passion of mine. I bought my first Mac in 1986 (the Mac Plus). That was a big commitment at the time. Back then, I was an up and coming computer professional just starting my own business. The question was do I go with my strong attraction to the Mac or go with the already dominant and rapidly growing IBM PC? I went Mac then and have stayed the course. At the time it looked like the innovative and easier to use Graphical User Interface of Macintosh would overtake the PC, but that didn’t happen. Even now, Mac represents only 10% of the Desktop PC market.

What has happened for several years now is that Mac is growing at 25-30% per year and PC sales are flat. The reason for Apple’s success has not been the Mac, but the introduction and massive success of the iPod, then the iPhone in 2007 and now the iPad. We live in a world swimming in mobile devices with people bumping into each other as they pay much more attention to their phones than their whereabouts. Mobile has begun to dominate the market and looks hell bent to take us all into a Post PC world where the PC is more of an after thought (actually, the PC as we know it may become part of the scenery literally as walls and glasses become screens). Just last week it was revealed that Apple sold 155 million iOS devices in 2011 which exceeds the total number Macs sold in its 28 year history (122m).

Even though Apple lost the battle between Mac and PC, they drove the computer industry forward, even in the Eighties and Nineties. Bill Gates could see that Apple’s Macintosh technology and graphical user interface was the wave of the future. So Microsoft created Windows using the Mac as a point of reference. Microsoft’s dominance systematically drained Apple and by the mid-nineties Apple’s future was in doubt. Steve Jobs returned to Apple after a hiatus of over ten years and revived Apple and led it to where we are today.

I’ve been doing blog posts here on the state of Apple for several years now. I’ve predicted Apple’s success, but no one could have predicted the current situation. Apple has been moving computers forward by leaps and bounds and taken computer tech far beyond the graphical interface, desktop/laptop into whole other categories. With Apple’s rise, the computer and associated technology industries have exploded into uncharted territory. We’ve gone from a computer on every desk to a computer in every pocket.

So, where is Apple with Tim Cook at the helm, withoutSteve Jobs to drive it forward? So far so good. Apple has not stopped innovating but I don’t think anyone expected it would. Apparently Steve Jobs worked with Jony Ive and other Apple executives on at least a four year product timeline. I’m hoping those four years will march like clockwork to not only improve the Mac, the iOS platform and devices, but create whole other platforms and initiatives. We know from the biography of Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson that Apple is working on major initiatives in education (iBooks Author) and the Living Room (Apple TV). From the looks of Mountain Lion and iCloud, lots more is in store.

As a technology professional, my job is to invest my time (R&D) and efforts (software development, consulting and writing) in the right places so I can, through early adoption, R&D and experimentation, stay ahead of this unfolding curve. I have acquired Apple’s latest technologies early including the first iPod, the first iPhone and iPod touch. The first iPad. I’ve since upgraded first thing as advances in these tools were made. I don’t buy every model, but have purchased every iPhone model on its first day, the Nov 2008, Nov 2010 and July 2011 MacBook Airs. I’m on the case and study the iPhone and iPad apps as they pertain to my target users: designers and the broader group of professional knowledge workers like myself (see my Independent Knowledge Professional blog that evolved from my Tech Ronin blog started in 2003).

The Mac, iPhone and iPad are #1 in their categories (the latter 2 are number 1 in sales, while Mac is agreed as the better desktop/laptop machine for those who have a choice. They are going gangbusters and I see no reason to doubt that will continue for the foreseeable future. Of course, nothing is forever, so Apple will have to find it’s way on its own (without Steve Jobs) to continue its success as time goes on. It’s not easy to do what they’ve done and it won’t be a slam dunk to continue it. IBM has done pretty well. Microsoft has seen better days, but I wouldn’t count them out by any means.

With Apple’s size now, they have to make big markets. I have no doubt that iBooks Author will succeed (and have written a recent blog post about it over at my Independent Knowledge Professional blog). Same for Apple TV. Who can do it better? They have all the money in the world ($100 billion at last count). They have Jony Ive as head of design which is a central, defining role at Apple. They have the ultimate Operations guy in Tim Cook. This should be fun to watch — and participate in.

My bread and butter work is the development of custom FileMaker Pro database applications for businesses – I call them decision support systems. I’ve built a FileMaker-based software product called Studio Manager for the creative services industry so do most of my consulting there, but I do a certain percentage of my work with a variety of other businesses from solopreneurs to corporate work groups.

Technology consulting comes along with the territory. I advise on what hardware and software to buy as part of my help in developing solutions to business challenges. I’ve had a web presence since 1995, so do a little consulting re blogging and social media. I’m a big Twitter fan (I’m @tokerud) but could live without Facebook. I love the Kindle and have recently acquired a Kindle Fire. It’s pretty good. Amazon is the other A company I believe in.

My generic advice to you without a personal consultation? Get a MacBook Air if you don’t already have one as your main computer (it’s OK to have a larger desktop machine when needed but such a machine is rarely versatile and mobile enough to be your primary machine). Get an iPad 3. Use an iPhone. Right now these are your best bets for hardware/software technologies to use in your knowledge work. Use them for staying current, managing, creating content, communicating, thinking.

You need to place bets with your hardware and software investments, and most importantly with your time. Every minute spent with these devices is know-how acquired – progress along key learning curves. Technology investments elsewhere will have smaller returns. Obsolescence and the avoidance thereof is a reality any knowledge worker must take seriously and manage him or herself to.

I follow Apple closely every day. I own multiple Macs, an iPhone 4 and an iPad 2. The biggest chunk of my income comes from building software and custom systems with FileMaker Pro – also owned by Apple. I was pretty thrilled last July when FileMaker announced FileMaker Go for iPhone and iPad. The latest upgrade to my Studio Manager product supports iPhone and iPad access.

The second biggest chunk of income comes from advising and consulting with my Mac clients on technology decisions. Apple is my home team. I’ve been writing about Apple since System 7 came out in the early nineties. Here’s what’s going on now:

1. iPad 2. The iPad 2 and enormous success of the first iPad last year is the biggest thing. The iPad is the third big industry-changing new device after the iPod and iPhone. This triple play puts Apple in the catbird seat in the technology scene. They are making truckloads of revenues and profits and their biggest problem is figuring out what to do with all the cash they are accumulating.

I love the iPad and and am on cloud 9 with the new thinner, lighter and faster iPad 2. The iPad is such an easy device to use. iPhone delivered the wonders of multi-touch in an exquisite little package. iPad raises the ante by expanding the screen to handle most digital documents at full size and doesn’t do half bad with video. There’s plenty of room for controls and content.

Apple is building for the future though. Things we are used to like USB and the Finder aren’t in iOS. Apple views the iPad as a game changer. They are reinventing the PC and are very serious about it. Expect to see better replacements for these standards as they get completed to the satisfaction of Steve Jobs. Apple made a judgement call on how far they could get us to stretch into new territory with the iPhone (no copy and paste?) and now with the iPad. They gave us all sorts of inducements to make the missing pieces worth waiting for. See more on this in yesterday’s post Have iPad, Will Travel on my Independent Knowledge Professional blog.

You may want to get an iPad just so you can start the new multi-touch *pad* learning curve. Gestures are in and they are being phased in over time. It helps to get on board so that you don’t have to learn 15 gestures all at once 2 years from now. There are rumors of a possible, more cloud-based iPad 3 this Fall. I’m so happy with iPad 2 that I don’t care one way or the other. But, of course, you would probably find me waiting in line then too. Apple hasn’t disappointed me for quite a few years now.

2. iPhone 4 and 5. Apple finally delivered a Verizon iPhone in February. The iPhone 4 is a killer device with its absolutely gorgeous 960 x 640 pixel screen. The early hubbub about the antenna had little to no negative impact on this juggernaut. However, the iPhone 5 may not be released in June. In fact, it seems pretty clear that an Autumn release is the earliest we can expect. I guess Apple isn’t done yet with whatever they are cooking up. So far we are hearing more cloud-based, a very powerful voice control component based on Apple’s acquisition of Siri. Apparently Apple wants to keep ahead of the pack so expect more on this next iPhone. By the way, the iPod touch should continue to gain iPhone features as time goes on and be an incredible wi-fi-only device. As free wi-fi spreads further, which it has been doing quite nicely lately at places like Starbucks, Peet’s and even MacDonalds, the iPod touch increases its value.

3. OS X Lion is nearing completion. We’ve already seen a preview and it will be morphing closer to iOS, taking on various inventions there. More gesture-based. An app store already out. A bunch of little icons on the home screen too. And more. The Mac and OS X look to be in a great position to continue their long upward climb in marketshare. It’s getting to the point where some people are starting to think that adopting the Mac platform is a step on the way to the future rather than a step off the path onto a niche OS. Many are saying Microsoft’s days in the sun are numbered. I think OS X and Mac will continue to grow. That’s all that matters from my perspective. If the PC platform is plateauing and Mobile and Cloud are ascending, it may not matter too much which way that goes.

All these three initiatives are selling like hotcakes. Apple’s massive multi-billion dollar server farm facility in North Carolina may be completed this Spring. Rumors of a new, much-improved MobileMe are afoot. Rumors of iPhones and iPads that depend more and integrate with an Apple Cloud are gaining traction.

There used to be a solitary Macintosh platform that worked pretty well with Windows. Now we have a different ball game with the two new iOS offerings on iPhone and iPad. I think it is clear there is room between the Mac and iPhone and that spot is being forged with great promise with the iPad and now the iPad 2. You need to be thinking in terms of all three working together. Apps need to be purchased in that context in many cases. Prefer the App that can interoperate all else being equal.

I didn’t mention the continuing success of Apple stores. The 4 in China have proven exceptional. It seems that retail presence is one of Apple’s strategic advantages vis a vis Amazon, Google and Microsoft.

And what about the livingroom and Apple TV? That’s still a hobby as Steve calls it. Apple is probably going to find a way there as well. The latest moves look like they may hold promise. Things like Apple TV 2.0, iPad 2 mirroring to HDTV, home sharing and streaming between iDevices, Macs and Apple TV 2 look good. There are serious obstacles on this front. Google TV ran straight into them in the Fall. Sooner or later things will open up here or a mitigation of differences will be struck between Cable and Digital. Don’t hold your breath but keep an eye out.

Nokia’s new alliance with Microsoft and adoption of the Windows Phone 7 smartphone platform has little relevance to Apple. Microsoft and Nokia are fighting for 2nd place against Android. Android has the lead now with its free OS and endless accommodations to carriers and manufacturers. Android has no enterprise presence.

Apple’s iPhone, iPod touch and now iPad usurped the old cell phone and PDA markets and created a third pad market (otherwise known as tablet). Apple is delivering better tech than anyone else. They market hard. They are incredibly efficient and single-minded. Their aesthetics and design are awesome. Apple has nothing to worry about.

But Android hasn’t distinguished itself as a great OS. It’s just the 2nd entrant, free alternative to Apple/iPhone. Both Windows Phone 7 (simpler and more polished) and WebOS (better at the web than Android) are better tech. Google knows that Android is *old* tech cobbled together – that’s why Chrome OS is around — it’s future leaning but has no marketshare at all except as a browser. The Android market is a mess with its openness, lack of app sales, incompatibilities, bloatware etc.

There’s some truth to Google Gundotra’s 2 turkeys don’t make an Eagle tweet. It will be hard to gain traction. But these are still early days in mobile and digitization.

Windows Phone 7 is cool software (maybe not as cool as WebOS but certainly no worse than Android). MS has a great developer program and lots of good feelings from developers — way better than Apple’s rapport with developers.

MS has the sprawling Windows market and a solid Windows 7 OS. Windows has utter dominance in the enterprise. MS even has cool tech and technologists which they can demonstrate when not hampered by having to stay compatible with legacy technologies – see Kinect.

Nokia has great hardware design. Incredible European loyalty. Amazing distribution channels for cell phones. This alliance boosts Microsoft and Nokia in Mobile.

These are early days for great mobile devices. It won’t be easy, but if Microsoft can really focus and Nokia can work with them and play well with others, they can carve out a spot for themselves leaning towards (1) enterprise and (2) simple for ordinary consumers — the silent majority who don’t want to load their devices with endless apps.

I didn’t use 3G on day 1. Didn’t even sign up. I was home with my wi-fi and 3G didn’t cross my mind. I was planning to use the $15/month, 256 mb plan. So I actually turned on 3G on day 2. Easy and no obligation except to prepay $15.

My iPad arrived at 1:42 pm. I was waiting in anticipation near the door. I heard a truck and ran up 3 flights of stairs to see if it was UPS. False alarm. A few minutes later Spinner, my dog, barked excitedly as the man in brown arrived. I was thrilled to have my brand new iPad in hand on a Friday at 1:42 with lots of time left in the day to explore.

I didn’t sync right away. I chose the fresh blank iPad option in iTunes which immediately left me free to try out the standard apps. I quickly opened and sampled a few standard apps then rushed to the App store. I had almost a month to think about and read about apps while waiting for my 3G after all. My first two apps were Twittelator for iPad for $1.99 and Instapaper Pro for $4.99. I wanted to be on twitter looking for iPad info as it was reported by citizen journalists on twitter.

Instapaper is great if you like to save links for later perusal – I do. Second thing about Instapaper, it has excellent font controls and even lets you darken or brighten right within the app so you can read in bed or read in a fairly dark room while watching TV and see just fine without straining your eyes. It also allows sizing the type and setting the margins. It’s fabulous, a must-have for news junkies of any stripe.

In order to read things in Instapaper, though, you need to have something there. I did but I wanted all the hottest current iPad information coming out on iPad 3G release day. I fashioned a search string like so: “iPad -win -free -contest -gangstaz” to get as much iPad news / comments as possible while filtering out a lot of the spam.

Twittelator for iPad was a surprisingly good compliment to Instapaper. Stone Design put a lot more effort into making the UI attractive and enjoyable than they have on the iPhone version. The landscape view is delightful with your friend stream in one column and another column of your choice beside it. The right column accommodated my iPad Search string, my iPad Enthusiasts list or the Tech & Science/Apple channel. I alternated between columns switching back and forth to check the latest tweets in each. Much fun for any healthy iPad fanatic on iPad 3G day!

Holding the iPad can be a conundrum. Sideways or portrait, tilted or flat? I found it no problem on day 1 but I did keep moving it and holding it differently from one period (say 15 minutes) to the next. Resting it on something is your best bet so if you have your knees up on the couch, you are set. You may want to rest the iPad on something like a thin pillow or folded towel in bed so it doesn’t dig into your stomach after a while.

The iPad New York Times Editor’s Choice is another promising app and worked perfectly on day 1. In subsequent days, I’ve become less satisfied as it isn’t the whole NY Times so it’s only good when the article you want is in there.

I was struck by how much you can do with an iPad. I liked Newsy with all its high quality video clips. But since the novelty wore off a day or two later, I’m not all that excited about it as it serves up the news a couple days late. That’s not so bad if you haven’t been in touch with big stories and want to catch up but otherwise it is slim pickings.

On day one I was elated. I tweeted that I felt stoned and I don’t do that sort of thing any more but did at one time and the feeling was similar. It’s kind of that being in love feeling turned towards a stellar and game changing new gadget. Also, I predicted the iPad might be like a Linus blanket. You never want to be without it.

Finally around 7:30 pm I decided I needed my photos on my iPad. That led me to sync to my Mac’s 3000-image iPhoto library. Too bad as that stole at least 45 minutes of my wonderful first iPad day. I love the photos on iPad and wished mightily I could organize them right there and then. Please hurry up on that upgrade, Apple!

Next up was finding a mind mapping app for iPad since I was already using a mind mapping tool, SimpleMind, on my iPhone. I did a bunch of research on my iPad with Google in Safari and discovered that one iPhone app maker decided on January 27 to go for it and do an iPad version of his mind mapping app. That app is iThoughtsHD and it is compatible with Mindjet MindManager on Mac so I sprung for the $7.99. I am so very pleased about being able to move all my mind maps from my Mac to my iPad as well as being able to move new mind maps created on iPad to my Mac. The map appearance is not up to Mindjet, but it is quite full-featured.

Next project was to get some Kindle and iBooks going. I downloaded the Kindle app and pretty soon was totally set with my Kindle library. Fantastic!!! Then I went over to iBooks and uh, nothing. I could see from looking at Winnie that I needed to get more ebooks quick. I had heard on twitter that people were putting PDFs in there using the GoodReader app which is an absolutely awesome app for $1 and does a lot for you.

So I downloaded a fresh copy of Calibre and worked on getting a user manual in there. Calibre will take a PDF and turn it into an ePub book for you. Sometimes this is pretty and sometimes not. You can select the Books icon in iTunes and then drag ePub ebooks into iTunes. Then sync. It works.

I researched a bit and found that I was entitled to download some ePub versions of my Take Control ebooks. Yay! I found the Take Control ebooks waaay better than reading PDFs on my Macbook screen. Wonderful and I can even bookmark stuff which I did a lot of and got yellow highlights for my trouble.

With the exception of that long iTunes sync, I explored, experimented, expanded and otherwise played incessantly with my amazing new tool/toy until midnight. What a great day!

I just blogged about my iPad choice this morning on my sister Tech Ronin blog. It includes why I chose the 3G option, how I plan to use my new iPad when it comes and where my Kindle will fit in. I’m hoping the iPad will be a perfect fit between my iPhone and Macbook Air allowing me to leave the Air at home more often. There are still lots of questions that won’t be answered until the product is released next month and apps that take advantage of the larger screen and faster processor become available.