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Friday, September 29, 2006

- Simon Bray, in an ad on TVG, promises to reveal his "lock of the year" during the network's coverage of the Arc on Sunday morning. "And it won't be the morning line favorite!" he emphatically assures us. Walter saw the "American" morning line, and Shirocco is listed as the 8-5 choice.

We could do that, right? I mean, we wouldn't bet if we weren't confident of the outcome. Right?

The fact is that with the small field, there's not going to be much value if you like any of the top three picks. Simon Holt likes Deep Impact, though he admits that he could stand accused of swallowing all the hype. I hate falling for the hype horse and losing. The hype horse always goes off at too low of a price, but it's like I just don't want to miss out on the bandwagon. "You mean, you didn't have him?" you're asked incredulously. Could I ever face Walter again if Deep Impact wins by four and I don't have him?

But if the hype horse loses, then it's just another bad bet. Any wager on a horse that is bet below its proper value is a bad bet. So, if Deep Impact gets bet too low, I have an excuse to just watch the race. Would anyone be shocked if he's the "American" favorite?

- I'm always confused as to whether it's Simon Brey, or Simon Bray. So I went on Google and entered "Simon Brey" TVG. I got the message Did you mean Simon Bray TVG? But beneath that were two lonely results with the misspelling. Both mine.

5 Comments:

I disagree with your point about the small field eliminating value on the Big 3. None of the others are going to draw much money anyway (particularly in America), and i think the fact that there are 3 very attractive options should ensure a decent price no matter who you like. Obviously, Shirocco is the favorite on the American morning line for no other reason than he's the Breeders Cup winner, and the only Arc contender to have raced over American soil. And i do believe he'll go favored here, particularly because he's undefeated since the Breeders Cup and is showing a win over Hurricane Run in his most recent outing. That'll be just fine with me. The problem is that Deep Impact seems to be the one attracting the most headlines, escpecially in the Racing Form, where most bettors will be getting their Arc PP's. It's possible he'll go favored, but i tend to doubt it. I'm still anticipating a price somewhere around 3/1. Perhaps that's wishful thinking, but we'll see. As for Hurricane Run, i was surprised to see him listed @ 7/2. How there can be that large a discrepancy (8/5 to 7/2) between he and Shirocco is completely beyond me, and it just goes to show you how utterly clueless the American linemakers are when it comes to European form. After all, Hurricane Run beat Shirocco rather handily in last year's Arc, and he also won the biggest European race since then, the King George. Granted, Shirocco beat him in the Prix Foy last time out, but that only evens the score at 1-1, and the Prix Foy was quite obviously not the main target for either horse. You can certainly make a case for both, but having one listed @ 8/5 and the other listed @ 7/2 is irresponsible. Almost as irresponsible as TVG allowing one of their announcers to tout a "Lock of the Year" on their tv commercials. Hell, why not just throw him on one of those Saturday morning cable shows and let him scream about picking 80% football winners while a big 1-900 number flashes on the tv screen? Good Grief.

Deep Impact may be receiving some hype, but i think it's a big mistake comparing him to, say, Strong Contender. To me, the kind of horse Alan is referring to is a lightly-raced animal with one or two impressive wins that shout "potential". That's a far cry from an older horse who's gone 10-for-11, and whose only loss came by a neck to a horse that later ran a close third in the King George vs. two of the top horses in the world. The only reason it's coming across as "hype" is because few people outside of Japan have witnessed his expolits. I think it's already been proven that Japanese racing is very high-caliber, and you need look no further than Heart's Cry or Cesario or Dance in the Mood to see that. And good as those horses are, Deep Impact is better. My friend in Japan has been "hyping" him since early last year, and he's won about a half-dozen races (including the Japanese Triple Crown) since then. This horse is the real deal, case closed. He may or may not be good enough to win the Arc (we'll find out Sunday), but a "hype horse" he is not.

I get your point, but you actually hit on mine when you said The only reason it's coming across as "hype" is because few people outside of Japan have witnessed his expolits. As good as he is, I think that Japanese racing is still somewhat of a novelty here. All the press the Deep Impact is getting is creating kind of a mythical quality about him. I hope you're right, but I'd be surprised if you see 3-1 on him. (And see my upcoming post on what to expect as to the betting ontrack at Longchamps.