Note that this page will no longer be updated. Changes to the senate voting rules have fixed the problem that this article was raising awareness of.

You will notice the guide is a bit more complicated this year, with more columns in most states. There are three reasons for this.

1) There are many more microparties this year. This makes the outcome less predictable and also makes it more likely that a microparty will win a seat. The smaller parties tend to allocate preferences to each other prior to the major parties.

2) I found some predictions of which microparties have a chance of winning (thanks to "truth seeker"). Previously I only checked allocations to parties that already had senators.

3) The AEC issued group voting tickets as csv files as well as pdf files, which allowed this guide to be generated automatically.

The increase in the number of microparties makes it even more important to check where your vote will end up, if you plan to vote above the line. Some of the predictions are quite alarming. For example, in South Australia the new “No carbon tax” microparty has a 64% chance of election as long as its primary vote is 0.15% or higher, based on historical preference flows and current polling.

In the tables below, grey indicates that a party has a very small chance of winning a senate seat. The yellow cell indicates where your vote is likely to end up. Note however that it is important to check that you approve of the order of all the parties listed, up to at least one of the four major parties (Greens, ALP and the coalition parties). Your vote may assist in the election of more than one senator (particularly if you vote for the ALP or Liberal Party) and may end up electing a minor candidate not listed here. Check the full senate ticket for more details. Remember, if you do not approve of how your favourite party allocates preferences, read the instructions and vote below the line.

Multiple rows for one party indicates that the party has submitted multiple tickets. Your vote is effectively split into two or three parts. This is done where the party wants to give equal weighting to two or three other parties.