Essentially, the situation mirrors Indiana 2012, except Kentucky is more Republicans in terms of national representation. As long as Bevin doesn’t Mourdock himself in the foot (and he doesn’t seem like the type), he would defeat Grimes. It’s not like he’s strapped for cash, and there is not a lot of material that Grimey could use against him.

I had no idea Kentucky had a runoff. Forgot about that. This puts McConnell in even more dire straights. Tell me, is it an open primary or a closed primary?

We cannot afford a Grimes victory. We already have to net 6 seats as it is. A tough climb, even in a 2nd term midterm with a host of retirements. Same goes for Nunn in Georgia.

Well, the problem with Lugar was that he was likely more popular with Democrats than with the GOP base. McConnell isn’t liked by either. There’s always the unknown X factor amongst any of our candidates that we can’t take into account (such as saying something incredibly dumb). I’m not sure if KY has an open primary or not (we do in TN, and no runoff, a double bad mess).

There are three candidates running in the primary at present, though Bevin is the only candidate registering in the polls, so more than likely, it will be won without a runoff. He’s going to have to make the case that McConnell has been in too long, isn’t effective as leader, isn’t interested in reducing big government or aggressively fighting the Zero agenda, and lastly, that he’s too damaged to win against Grimes. Grimes already scored a landslide win for Sec of State. Against a fresh face, the odds would be even, and he could carry a more aggressive agenda to DC. The question is whether Rand Paul will choose to help him.