Monday, November 05, 2012

i estimate that absolutely noone gives a damn about the NHL, so by folding that thread into this one, we won’t distract from what this thread is really about: boner pills, blood doping (is it low t?), and…jesus christ did mike vick just throw another ####### interception?

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One of the huge problems is the bad, canned jokes. Tossing the football -- and then dropping it on purpose. The lame verbal jokes. The laughing over nothing, the fake laughing, the pretense that they are providing something useful to you. It is just a horrible presentation, from start to finish. And they come on before the game, during halftime, after the game. Who needs it?

What you need to do is to record the game without any of the extraneous BS. No commercials, no pre-game hype, certainly no tortured National Anthem, no halftime show, no postgame analysis, and no presentation of the trophy. Just the game itself. Then watch it again and enjoy it, being sure to destroy the recording immediately afterward so you can't be accused of thievery. Thievery is bad.

BTW you asked a question about where I'd rate Flacco among the other QBs, but you didn't indicate any agreement or disagreement with my rankings. Does that mean I've silenced you with my brilliance?

where I'd rate Flacco among the other QBs, but you didn't indicate any agreement or disagreement

Not that I was asked, but I don't see how you can put Flacco in the top ten. Ordered by group, but not within the groups, Brady/Brees/Manning/Rodgers are the elite "older" guard, Griffin/Kapernick/Newton and Luck/Ryan/Stafford are the "younger" guys who seem pretty clearly ahead. That's ten already. Then there's Eli, Roethlisberger, Schaub, and Wilson who I would take all ahead of Flacco, but would listen to an argument otherwise.

Also, I have no idea where to put Alex Smith. He's become a pretty efficient player under Harbaugh, but when the Browns oeverpay to get him next year and he gets he brains beaten in, he'll probably look like garbage. What's the true talent level?

Alex Smith has done nothing without Harbaugh. Any team that signs him is just fooling themselves.

More to play devil's advocate than anything else, he started to look like a reasonable starter at 25, and then Harbaugh got him in what should be his prime at 27/28. These are reasonable stages for him to take steps forward with or without Harbaugh. And even if he leaves Harbaugh, he's going to be taking that knowledge with him.

And even if he leaves Harbaugh, he's going to be taking that knowledge with him.

Smith's increase in efficiency isn't from knowledge he gained, it's from having a coaching staff that understands his limitations and called plays accordingly. He can take all the knowledge he wants with him, there is no guarantee that his next coaching staff will use him properly. Smith is extremely fortunate that this is a bad year to need a QB.

Offensive play yardage counts from the line of scrimmage. Defensive and special teams return plays count from the spot where possession of the ball is taken. Looked at it that way, it makes a little more sense.

They should be measuring kick/punt returns based on net yardage gained vs no one returning the ball.

For example:

Returner catches the ball 5 yards deep in the end zone, and runs it out to the 37 yard line.
If he didn't return it, the ball would have been placed at the 20, so his total net yardage is 17 yards.

Returner catches the ball 2 yards deep in the end zone, and runs it out to the 13 yard line, before getting tackled.
If he didn't return it, the ball would have been placed at the 20, so his total net yardage is -7 yards.

What you need to do is to record the game without any of the extraneous BS. No commercials, no pre-game hype, certainly no tortured National Anthem, no halftime show, no postgame analysis, and no presentation of the trophy. Just the game itself.

I actually do watch games this way, on time delay. Except that I don't even suffer through the announcers. I just do the 30-second-skip-ahead, and -- voila.

BTW you asked a question about where I'd rate Flacco among the other QBs, but you didn't indicate any agreement or disagreement with my rankings. Does that mean I've silenced you with my brilliance?

Returner catches the ball 2 yards deep in the end zone, and runs it out to the 13 yard line, before getting tackled. If he didn't return it, the ball would have been placed at the 20, so his total net yardage is -7 yards.

I can see doing net return yards on the team level, but I'm not sure it's a good idea on the individual level. A return guy who takes the ball at the 1 (a ball that likely goes in the end zone if he doesn't field it) and returns it to the 19 gets 18 yards, and another who takes it on the goal line and returns it the same number of yards gets -2. That seems like more of distortion to the stats than the existing system.

By the way, during the Super Bowl blackout were any of you waiting breathlessly to learn (a) the cause of the blackout, and (b) when the power would be restored? When I was watching it, I was just like, shrug, there's some issue, they're dealing with it, and obviously they're trying to get the lights back on as soon as possible. So I didn't even really care that CBS wasn't able to tell me what was going on.

But Mike Francesa was aghast at a caller who stated this view. Francesa said "You don't think it was a story why the lights were off?" "No." "Are you insane? What if this were a terrorist attack? Wasn't it important for them to confirm that to you?"

Umm... terrorist attack? We could see the stadium. We could see inside and outside. We could see nothing really was going on. There was no panic. There were no explosions. We had contact with Steve Tasker and such. Nobody was reporting that there were gunshots or bombs or any other type of urgent/dangerous situation. We could see inside the stadium, the players milling about on the turf, the fans acting normally, etc. WTF. So no, Mike Francesa, the fact that CBS wasn't able to give me any specifics wasn't important to me.

There were really no signs that it was a terrorist attack, so the thought didn't even cross my mind. I suppose inflicting CBS's studio personalities onto us unexpectedly might qualify as terrorism, but I imagine the terrorists have loftier goals.

it becomes a story if the delay is prolonged or the game has to be postponed. the terrorist angle is silly but i think if the delay had passed the hour mark everyone would have reason to know what the h8ll was or was not happening.

would you have shrugged at a movie theatre if the film stopped and the manager told you they would have the problem fixed in an hour?

or to stay with sports, this isn't a golf tournament where everyone just shows up monday to pick up where they left off.

By the way, during the Super Bowl blackout were any of you waiting breathlessly to learn (a) the cause of the blackout, and (b) when the power would be restored?

"Breathlessly" overstates it, and I definitely wasn't worried about terrorism, but of course I would have liked some actual news-like coverage of what was happening. It was an embarrassment that the NFL hosted its premier event in a facility that wasn't up to the task, and it would have been easily recognized as one if something similar had happened during an XFL championship game.

By the way, during the Super Bowl blackout were any of you waiting breathlessly to learn (a) the cause of the blackout, and (b) when the power would be restored?

No to the first, yes to the second (other than the breathless part). I didn't care why it happened, but if it was going to take an hour, I'm sure I could have found something better to do than hang around with the gang that couldn't see straight.

once any delay hits the hour mark folks begin to feel obligated to tell customers the truth. so yes, it would have likely been several such annoucements but after an hour folks start to seek real answers and then it's time to put up or shut up

this is a generalization based on observation of course

but i am fairly certain that if the lights were still not operational at about an hour cbs would have been compelled to demand answers since at that point viewers are going to walk away

BTW you asked a question about where I'd rate Flacco among the other QBs, but you didn't indicate any agreement or disagreement with my rankings. Does that mean I've silenced you with my brilliance?

Haven't had a chance to digest your list. Will do so later.

That's cool, but remember that I made two distinct rankings, not to be confused: One based on career accomplishment to date with no allowances for age; and the other based on the QBs I'd want going forward, which of course brings age into account in a major way. Flacco rates slightly higher going forward, but in both cases he's clearly above average but non-elite. And as I noted, I only rated about half the current starters, since I wanted it to be an impressionistic pair of lists and not just a fb-reference cut-and-paste job. That's why I omitted Newton and Stafford as well as most of the lower level possibilities---I simply haven't seen them enough.

I'm sure you've been asked this before. I'm guessing you may have answered before. But knowing your affinity for crime narratives, evidence gathering, I want to ask: What do you make of the double murder after SB XXXIV? Have you any notion of whether Ray Lewis was involved, or how?

He was involved, in the sense that he tried to prevent it. Ray Lewis was out in a place where alcohol was flowing freely, long after midnight. This was poor judgment, but I can't say I never did that when I was that age. There were rival gangs there, and there was evidence of bad feelings throughout the night. Ray Lewis, according to the testimony of numerous individuals, tried to play the role of peacemaker throughout the evening, and, when the fatal fight started, tried to break it up. This is what the evidence shows. His prosecution for murder was grossly irresponsible, and the Atlanta prosecutors themselves should have faced criminal charges for their effort to prosecute Lewis, when they knew full well that he was innocent.

This is what the evidence shows. His prosecution for murder was grossly irresponsible, and the Atlanta prosecutors themselves should have faced criminal charges for their effort to prosecute Lewis, when they knew full well that he was innocent.

Well, he was charged, but ultimately not tried, as he plead out in exchange for obstruction and the agreement to testify against the other two co-defendants.

Ray Lewis, according to the testimony of numerous individuals, tried to play the role of peacemaker throughout the evening, and, when the fatal fight started, tried to break it up. This is what the evidence shows.

Perhaps James is right. Though at least one of those "numerous individuals" who testified this way is Lewis himself. Not sure who the others are.

Quoting:

Lewis sat with his friends at the defense table for the first two weeks of this trial, until he was given a plea bargain and admitted that he was guilty of lying to police. Lewis then became the State's "star witnesss" testifying that his two friends and former co-defendants Joseph Sweeting and Reginald Oakley had gotten knives from a Sports Authority during Lewis' autograph signing session before the Superbowl in Atlanta. When they showed Lewis, he asked them what they were doing with those knives, "I don't want to see those."

Lewis testified that he entered a guilty plea to a charge of obstructing justice. He admitted he lied to police and made a false statement in the hours after the fatal fight. Defense lawyers for his former co-defendants got the judge to instruct the jury that they could infer nothing against them from Lewis' guilty plea.

Lewis described a brawl with punches being thrown everywhere. He said he didn't want to get invoved because it would jeopardize his NFL career. "I tried to stop this fight", he said.

Lewis said at a hotel afterwards he asked Sweeting what happened. Lewis demonstrated how Sweeting allegedly held a knife with its blade protruding from his fist and said, "Everytime they hit me, I hit them".

Lewis testified that he noticed Oakley was injured, his "head was busted". According to Lewis when he asked Oakley what happened, Oakley said,"Nothing. I was just beating him." Lewis replied, "You was all trippin'".

I actually do watch games this way, on time delay. Except that I don't even suffer through the announcers. I just do the 30-second-skip-ahead, and -- voila.

One of the funnest sports watching experiences I've had was when the French CBC announcers went on strike (or something, I forget the details) and so the Habs-Bruins playoff series was broadcast with absolutely no commentary on the French channel. I may be mashing together several different series' but I think it was the one Theodore made his behind the back stick save and Kyle McLaren tried to murder Richard Zednik. So the fact that it was a great series helped. It probably also helps that I've always felt crowd noise is a particularly important element of a hockey broadcast compared to other sports. The glass-banging on a big hit, etc.

Anyway, I've since experimented with cutting out the middle speaker in surround sound. It seems to cut out the commetnary and leave the ambient crowd noise. Though the volume rises and falls in a distracting way when the crowd noise is dimmed for the speaking I can't hear.

His prosecution for murder was grossly irresponsible, and the Atlanta prosecutors themselves should have faced criminal charges for their effort to prosecute Lewis, when they knew full well that he was innocent.

this cannot be said loudly enough.

charging an innocent person with murder should not be used as a negotiating tactic, and the fact that overcharging in general seems to be a common practice among prosecutors to force defendants into plea bargains is gravely concerning.

By the way, during the Super Bowl blackout were any of you waiting breathlessly to learn (a) the cause of the blackout, and (b) when the power would be restored? When I was watching it, I was just like, shrug, there's some issue, they're dealing with it, and obviously they're trying to get the lights back on as soon as possible. So I didn't even really care that CBS wasn't able to tell me what was going on.

I was pretty happy about it to be honest, We run a huge Superbowl party at our pub now (starts at 9am) and the bar just got even busier.

so, taking another look at the eagles offseason, i'm still in basically the same frame of mind, so i'm thinking this:

cut vick, trent cole, and nnamdi.
put the franchise tag on dominique rodgers-cromartie
trade jeremy maclin to new england.
sign greg jennings and jairus byrd, and then something for the front 7 on defense.

from there, you get into the draft, where i still think luke joeckel at 4 is the best possible outcome. if the eagles are moving to a 3-4, i wouldn't mind either of jarvis jones or bjoern werner. i also wouldn't quibble with geno smith, but i don't think he should be the way to go. and if the eagles can trade down, i'd be very happy with chance warmack or eric fisher. i'm hot and cold on dee millner, but i'm more cold than hot right now. and i really want no part of star lotulelei or demontre moore.

if you can get another pass rusher, at least one other DB and hopefully a good tight end through the middle rounds of the draft, i think that'd be a solid start to the kelly era.

Have you given any thought to whether or not New England would give up a draft pick for a WR, a position they don't need? Hint: they likely won't, and if they do it won't be anything higher than a 5th. They prefer to take fliers on dirt cheap veterans.

Have you given any thought to whether or not New England would give up a draft pick for a WR, a position they don't need? Hint: they likely won't, and if they do it won't be anything higher than a 5th. They prefer to take fliers on dirt cheap veterans.

edelman and welker are free agents this offseason and brandon lloyd started 15 games for them this past year. even if they resign welker, maclin is a very clear upgrade for them.

and yes, belichick does have a thing for undervalued assets, and that's exactly why i think there's a chance he'd be interested. maclin has above average skills across the board (above average speed, above average hands, above average route-running) and if you think he still has a chance to play up to his pre-draft potential, now really is the ideal time to go after him.

Maclin would be their 2nd most expensive receiver after Welker. He is not an undervalued asset to them, he is overvalued. They get guys like Lloyd, Branch and Stallworth on veteran minimum contracts and the guys that don't work out they discard and try again. The ones that do they get great value from. And this is the last year on Maclin's contract, so you're not going to get anything of real value for him.

Maclin would be their 2nd most expensive receiver after Welker. He is not an undervalued asset to them, he is overvalued. They get guys like Lloyd, Branch and Stallworth on veteran minimum contracts and the guys that don't work out they discard and try again. The ones that do they get great value from. And this is the last year on Maclin's contract, so you're not going to get anything of real value for him.

so your argument is that because they can get a rambler for free, it's not worth spending 10 cents for a mercedes?

They're not spending ten cents for him. They're spending ten cents to get his contract, a contract that isn't in line with how they operate. So yes, they will probably just sign some more scrap heap veterans and not miss a beat passing the ball like they have the past few years.

They're not spending ten cents for him. They're spending ten cents to get his contract, a contract that isn't in line with how they operate. So yes, they will probably just sign some more scrap heap veterans and not miss a beat passing the ball like they have the past few years.

maclin is still on a rookie contract and he was a late first round pick. i am fairly sure that his contract is not exactly backbreaking.

What do expect to get in exchange for Maclin?

i'd be looking for something like what they got for mcnabb. a 3rd round pick this year with a conditional 2nd round pick next year, depending on maclin's performance.

Did anyone see the story ESPN is running this morning about the end of the SB? Flacco supposedly told his teammates, they should come off the bench,if necessary, to tackle Ted Ginn, if it looked like he would break the punt return; a la Tommy Lewis-Dicky Maegle in the 1954 Cotton Bowl. In that case they awarded Rice a TD. I wonder what they would have done in this case.

#3837 I haven't seen the story but it was annoying to me that the Ravens rushed the field immediately as Ginn was tackled. Because he threw the ball up in the air there right at the end to try to prolong the play and I guess it was after he was down but I'd have liked to see the play finish first before the idiots stormed the field.

They traded picks for veterans Moss and Welker - although I think those guys had more than one year left on their contracts.

They got Moss for a 4th and Welker for a 2nd and a 7th because that's what his RFA tender amount was. Welker also had added value in being a punt returner. And that was a few months after losing the AFC Championship Game because their #1 WR was Reche Caldwell. They are not in that position this year. Trading for Maclin is possible, but they're not giving up a second day pick to do so.

They got Moss for a 4th and Welker for a 2nd and a 7th because that's what his RFA tender amount was. Welker also had added value in being a punt returner. And that was a few months after losing the AFC Championship Game because their #1 WR was Reche Caldwell. They are not in that position this year. Trading for Maclin is possible, but they're not giving up a second day pick to do so.

yes and that actually is completely different from the fact that they lost this year's AFC championship game with their #1 WR being brandon lloyd.

Did anyone see the story ESPN is running this morning about the end of the SB? Flacco supposedly told his teammates, they should come off the bench,if necessary, to tackle Ted Ginn, if it looked like he would break the punt return; a la Tommy Lewis-Dicky Maegle in the 1954 Cotton Bowl. In that case they awarded Rice a TD. I wonder what they would have done in this case.

iirc, the game cannot end on a defensive penalty, so if they did that, it'd be a 15 yard penalty from the end of the play, and SF would have one last snap at the end of the game.

Did anyone see the story ESPN is running this morning about the end of the SB? Flacco supposedly told his teammates, they should come off the bench,if necessary, to tackle Ted Ginn, if it looked like he would break the punt return; a la Tommy Lewis-Dicky Maegle in the 1954 Cotton Bowl. In that case they awarded Rice a TD. I wonder what they would have done in this case.

I always loved Lewis's explanation for what he did: "I'm just too full of 'Bama." Two nights later Lewis appeared with Moegle on the Ed Sullivan Show, and the Texas Legislature made him an honorary citizen, on the unarguable grounds that "Anybody that's got that much spirit deserves to be a Texan."

I think it can be argued that the Pats' acquisition of Welker was a special case. He tore them up regularly when he was a Dolphin and Belichick has said publicly that he's never coveted another team's player as much as he wanted Welker back in those days (paraphrasing) - he clearly saw something in the guy that would be a perfect fit in his offense (and obviously he was right).

The Pat's system of WR pickups (and usage) over the last several years has been really consistent, as DA B has pointed out. Their offense has clearly-defined roles (though they're not the roles that most other teams use). You got your Ben Watson - huge TE. Kevin Faulk - 3rd-down RB type. Then there's a plodder - Dillon/Maroney/BJGE. There's Welker himself. And then they go get a downfield threat, usually off the scrapheap, who's usually utilized more for the 'threat' aspect than the 'downfield' part. They haven't really used a true/typical '#1 WR' much since Troy Brown got old (aside from the ~1.5 unbelievable years from Moss, which they basically fell into).

The reason their offense has gone from 'great' to 'historically great' more recently is that they turned the 'big TE' into a legitimately major threat in Gronkowski plus added Hernandez's versatility, Welker hasn't slowed down, and they've managed to find somebody to effectively play the Faulk role just about every year.

In other words, Lloyd was this year's 60-70 catch tertiary offensive weapon that Branch had been for the two previous seasons; prior to that Moss well eclipsed this type of usage, which they needed pre-Gronk/Hernandez. I don't see NE giving up anything of value for Maclin.

i don't think maclin can produce as much with the eagles as he could on a team with a more established/better QB. he has above average tools across the board (size, speed, hands, route-running), but he can't make use of those skills if his QB can't hit him in stride, or throws the ball 2 steps late.

with mike vick or nick foles, maclin is a 70 catch/900 yard guy, but with brady (or drew brees, or aaron rodgers or any QB who is precise in his throws), the sky is the limit.

anyway, coming out of the combine, i think the best thing the eagles could do would be to trade down, but i don't see why someone else would give up anything of value to come the other way. i'm still not a huge fan of lotulelei or moore, plus jarvis jones didn't participate in any of the workouts, and millner and warner didn't exactly stand out. that's 5 of the top 6 guys in the draft class who failed to impress.

on the plus side, i'd be pretty okay with any of the linemen (joeckel, fisher, warmack or johnson), but the issue there is that none of those guys are surefire blue-chippers. they're definitely at the head of this draft class, but i don't know how likely any of them are to become all-pro type tackles, and if you're picking in the top 5, that's really gotta be what you get.

and then on defense, i think ansah and jordan really stood out. if the eagles are going to a 3-4 or a hybrid 4-3, either of those guys would fit in.

with this being the first year since 1998 that andy reid hasn't been in charge on draft day, i really have no idea what to expect from the eagles, but if they can manuever themselves into a position where they add multiple mid-round picks, the depth in this draft is really tailor-made to fill their needs. if they pick eric fisher at 4, they can get a blue-chip DB in the 2nd/3rd round (either reid, vaccaro, rambo, mathieu, cyprien, elam, banks, amerson, rhodes, ryan or poyer), plus a TE in the 4th (i'd be really happy with any of ertz, escobar, eifert, kelce, fauria or mcdonald), and whatever decent pass-rushers/defensive backs/linebackers make it to day 3.

they can get a blue-chip DB in the 2nd/3rd round (either reid, vaccaro, rambo, mathieu, cyprien, elam, banks, amerson, rhodes, ryan or poyer), plus a TE in the 4th (i'd be really happy with any of ertz, escobar, eifert, kelce, fauria or mcdonald)

At least half those players won't be available in the rounds you want them at.

saying that he's the #1 CB in the draft is meaningless without addressing how much better he is than the #2 ranked CB, and it's meaningless without addressing how he compares to the other players at his position that are already in the NFL, and it's meaningless without addressing how he compares with the other players in this draft class at other positions.

saying that he's the #1 CB in the draft is meaningless without addressing how much better he is than the #2 ranked CB, and it's meaningless without addressing how he compares to the other players at his position that are already in the NFL, and it's meaningless without addressing how he compares with the other players in this draft class at other positions.

Two things.

1. What does this have to do with how he did at the Combine? You said he "didn't stand out" when the opposite is true, as he aced the questions about his top end speed.

beyond them, i'm on the bubble w/r/t jarvis jones, ezekial ansah, bjoern werner and dee milliner. and then, i am not a fan of star lotulelei or deontre moore. and i like sharrif floyd, but i don't really have any interest in drafting him in the first round, let alone the top 10.

I think the Niners should trade some picks. They are a really deep team and if these rumors are true, they now have 5 of the first 93 picks of the draft. (31, 34, 61, 74, and 93). AJ Jenkins, their first round pick from last year, barely played last year. Their second round pick, LaMichael James, barely played before Kendall Hunter got hurt and Hunter will be back. I just don't know where they are going to play these guys as a win-now team.

I'd love for them to get Revis because I think they can afford to trade for him and wait on signing him to an extension. They could use a stud receiver (I'd love Mike Wallace) as the only guy they have under contract right now without question marks is Crabtree. Moss shouldn't be re-signed, Manningham is out after injuring his knee, and Jenkins didn't do anything last year. If it weren't for the confidence I have in Harbaugh/Baalke, I'd be pretty concerned about him being a bust.

I think they should get Revis or DRC or Nmadi or another real shut down corner. They also badly need a rotation on the DLine. And a stud WR. However, they quickly run into cap issues. I could see them cutting lose 1-2 from Carlos Rodgers, Dante Whitner or Dashon Goldson - and drafting a pack of safeties, 3-4 DEs and OILBs.

WR is tricky. A proven stud like Mike Wallace is expensive in either picks or cap $ or both. I think the depth at RB is pretty important. Gore is better at 18 carries per game. Apparently the deal with AJ Jenkins was simply that he could not absorb the offense in a year. I mean, he lost snaps to Ted Ginn Jr. and some other practice squad guy I can't even remember.

Well, the Smith deal is right in line with the Flynn/Palmer/Kolb/Cassel valuations... deals which seemed insane on the face of it. KC must really not like Gino Smith. I suppose it's not a horrible move for the Chiefs if they think they can compete with Denver/Wildcard. But they had a terrible pass defense, terrible run defense, and below average rush offense to go with their league-worse passing offense. I would have taken my chances and assumed SF cuts him.

I think they should get Revis or DRC or Nmadi or another real shut down corner. They also badly need a rotation on the DLine. And a stud WR. However, they quickly run into cap issues. I could see them cutting lose 1-2 from Carlos Rodgers, Dante Whitner or Dashon Goldson - and drafting a pack of safeties, 3-4 DEs and OILBs.

You hit this on the head exactly. The 9ers need a lot despite having gone to the Superbowl this year. They desperately need an every down pass rusher who can get to the QB on his own and the dropoff from their #2 corner (Brown or Rogers, whoever one likes less - both are pretty good) to their #3 corner (Culliver) is a chasm. With a decent 3rd corner they probably win that Superbowl - the Ravens ran Culliver ragged.

I'd lose the safeties if need be. Both are overrated because they hit hard, but neither are good in coverage and they're actually not great tacklers because they go for the hit rather than wrapping people up. I think you keep one, make him the strong safety, and try to find a coverage safety either in the draft or elsewhere. WR yeah, they need another guy. They could really use a field stretching speed guy but those are expensive. Jenkins looks like a bust. LaMichael James looked great last year other than the crushing fumble in the Superbowl - he and Hunter look like excellent #2 guys, which you need in the current game. Plus Gore isn't a baby anymore.

re: the Smith trade - I think it more just illustrates how cuckoo those other QB moves have been. If your second round pick in the draft turned into a QB who could do what Smith has done over the last two years you'd be pretty happy. The other guys were traded for in the hopes they would become that guy - they didn't. Smith is kind of a wacky DIPS-effective quarterback in the sense that he doesn't strike out a ton of guys but he still puts up good ERAs when it seems like he shouldn't because he doesn't walk guys or give up home runs, i.e. he doesn't throw interceptions. Even in his bad years he didn't throw a ton of interceptions.

I think their best moves right now would be to try and trade for a corner and a WR, then roll the dice on another pass rusher in the draft. Those guys are impossible to trade for and insanely expensive cap-wise when you do. I think you've got to draft them.

If your second round pick in the draft turned into a QB who could do what Smith has done over the last two years you'd be pretty happy.

I think this is right. I think in some respects picks can be overvalued. Take the Patriots as an example. If instead of screwing around drafting (disappointing) DBs in the first few rounds over the past few years, they had traded some 2nd rounders for legit starters, they probably have at least 1-2 more Super Bowl appearances and maybe a win or two. I understand that equation is different when your overall talent level is as low as KC's is, but still, there is real value in making a run at the playoffs for a team like that.

Culliver had a solid season and I wouldn't disregard him completely simply because he had an awful Super Bowl. One thing the Niners could do is use him as a safety if they decide not to re-sign Goldson. He played safety in college so he does have some experience there. He's not a bad player. I wouldn't give more significance to one game even if it is the Super Bowl.

I don't think you need both Hunter and James on the roster. Gore isn't going to last forever but I think he has at least two good years left in him. They will need to replace him eventually but that's not a priority at this point.

The Niners play their starters a lot and I think that was a factor in the way that their pass-rush declined in the playoffs although Justin Smith's injury was a bigger factor in that regard. They need to have more of a rotation.

Right now, the Niners have a pretty good offense and a pretty good defense. A guy like Wallace makes their offense dominant and a guy like Revis makes their defense dominant. Resources being scarce, I think they can have one or the other. I don't expect both but would be disappointed if they don't get either.

I think they should get Revis or DRC or Nmadi or another real shut down corner.

From what we saw of Nnamdi the last couple of years in Philly, you should stay far away. Especially this last year, his p#### tackling made Asante Samuel look like Jack Tatum and he looks like he can no longer stay with a receiver with any kind of plus speed.

Over the whole season, all 3 of the niners corners played pretty well. They had a good pass defense that wasn't all pass rush and the PFF game charts rated them all solidily (FWIW). But they were clearly exposed when the pass rush dropped down a notch after the 3rd quarter of the Pats game.

Not ruling out some Fangio scheme getting exposed either. The Niners have had great defenses under Lord Fangio, BUT a lot of that is that since they never substitute they can rarely be caught in the wrong defense (what the Pats do with Gronk/Hernandez and hurry-up). Presumably that lack of flexibility comes at a price -- one is obviously fatigue, but there could be more subtle game plan effects. Or it could just be "Injured Smiths".

Nnamadi may be toast, but this isn't baseball. You have to evaluate the player on the field/film and that's beyond my ken. So, my presumption is that Baalke/Harbaugh will know if he's done or not. I just mean a "Revis-type shut-down corner" (pretty rare and special players). Do any of them last more than 3-4 years? Deon, maybe.

Lots of internet scuttlebutt about the Niners dumping their pro-bowl safeties. Have to leave it to the coaches to decide how replaceable they are. I mean sure they are not perfect. If you get a guy that covers better, will he be as good a N/S run stopper?

Boldin had an excellent postseason and I think this was a solid pickup for the Niners. That said, I would prefer someone that can stretch the field and Boldin can't do that at this stage of his career. Can Manningham do that? Can AJ Jenkins do that? The Niners still have a ton of picks so perhaps they can find someone in the draft to do that.

Right now, I'd have to say that the two best teams in the NFC are in the NFC West. I'd probably rate the Seahawks as being better than the Niners as of right now.

It's going to be tough to root for a guy that was arguably the best player for the Ravens in the Super Bowl.

the eagles have made another couple of moves. so far, they've brought in 6 guys who should be starters on defense (williams and fletcher at CB, phillips and chung at S, barwin at LB, and sopoaga at NT) plus whatever james casey is on offense.

the good thing about the defensive signings is that they brought in guys who are young (chung, phillips and barwin are 26, fletcher is 27, and williams is 28) and who still have room to grow. they don't have much star potential but the guys they brought in (specifically sopoaga, chung and williams) are very sound, very well-rounded defenders from a skill/technique standpoint, and i think they could add a structure to the defense that wasn't present this year and that that might speed the development of some of the younger players on the roster (specifically cox, kendricks, curry, boykin and graham).

and in addition, phillips and barwin have the potential to add some much needed big play ability.

it seems like sopoaga will be lined up over the center at NT, with barwin over the TE at SLB. ryans and kendricks will be at ILB and then cox and cole/graham/curry will set up on the weakside, where the scheme of the defense should mean that they matchup 1 on 1 against the opposing guard/tackle.

As for Welker going to the Broncos, Welker was made, not born. He was made by Brady and Belichik. They can make another one like him without too much trouble.

The team will barely skip a beat without him. Once people understand that the quarterback and the offensive scheme is the thing that matters the most, they'll learn not to overreact to the Welkers of the world leaving.

As for Welker going to the Broncos, Welker was made, not born. He was made by Brady and Belichik. They can make another one like him without too much trouble

While I agree with you for the most part, I am still surprised that the Patriots decided to give the bigger contract to a guy who will be lucky to produce the numbers Welker put up for them. I think I'd rather have Welker for the contract than Amendola for the contract that he got.

The Seahawks have really loaded up. They've signed Avril and Bennett and are stacked right now.

i'm pretty sure the eagles still have at least one big move left in free agency, but taking another look at the draft:

in the first round, i want nothing to do with any of the DTs. i'm sure that one of floyd, lotulelei or richardson won't suck, but i don't want to be the one to roll the dice on guessing which one it'll be.

looking at the rest of the top ~10, there's joeckel, fisher and johnson at OT, and i'm a fan of all of them. there's warmack at guard, milliner at CB, jordan, ansah and jones at DE/OLB and geno smith at QB. i think i'd be okay with any of these guys at 4. i'm not a huge fan of milliner and i don't think warmack is great value that high, but i'm pretty sure both are gonna be in the league for a while, so while i wouldn't be ecstatic about either of them, i also wouldn't ##### too badly about them being taken.

then a half step up from those two are smith, johnson, ansah and jones. johnson, ansah and jones have flaws, but the sky is the limit for each of them in terms of potential, so i'd be happy to roll the dice. and then with geno smith, if the eagles draft him, it means that chip! signed off on him, so i'd be happy with that, too.

and then, i think the class of the draft are fisher, joeckel and dion jordan, and of the 3, fisher is the guy i really want.

getting into the 2nd round, i want a DB. the draft looks really strong there, so i'd hope to get trufant or elam or rhodes or amerson, cyprien, reid, banks, poyer, ryan, rambo, thomas, mathieu, swearinger, or you know, if they can find a couple of trading partners, they could probably slide all the way down to the 3rd/4th round, add a couple of extra 2nd/3rd day picks, and still pick up 1 or 2 of those guys, plus a TE, another OL, and some linemen/backers to help transition to the 3-4/4-3 under by the end of the 5th round.

if they stand pat, i'd hope for something like 1-fisher, 2-elam, 3-ryan 4-fauria, 5-taylor. if they pull that off, you get a bookend left tackle and a potential stud safety in fisher and elam, plus a red zone threat at TE in fauria, another usable DB in ryan, and a DE who should be able to excel in a 3-4 in devin taylor.

that's still probably a 6 win team because the QB situation is such a mess and the team as a whole is an almost complete unknown, but you'd have young talent at every level of the defense (cox, graham, curry, kendricks, ryan, elam, boykin), plus a group of solid veterans (cole, sopoaga, ryans, williams, and chung) and a couple of interesting wildcards (barwin, fletcher, and phillips).

then on offense, you'd still have a ton of speed with jackson, maclin, and mccoy, plus casey and fauria would add some much needed size to the receiving corps. and if you add fisher to the O-line and get back the guys that were injured last year, that line doesn't just get better, it is massively upgraded from last year. peters and fisher at OT are lightyears ahead of bell/dunlap/kelly/herremens, while herremens is lightyears ahead of watkins/kelly/scott at RG. and kelce is again lightyears ahead of what you got from reynolds at C. if you add that massive influx of talent to the upgrade in coaching, the line (and the offense as a whole) could look really, really good.

The stupidest thing I read about Welker leaving the Pats was in the Globe. The columnist said something like "Despite the Patriots trying to phase him out, Welker caught 120 passes for 1,000 yards" (or whatever the real numbers are) - as if Welker was diving in front of passes intended for Gronkowski and the others and stealing receptions from them.

The media started the season with the story that the Patriots were removing Welker from the offensive game-plan. This didn't make sense at the time, considering they had just willingly agreed to pay him a big salary on a 1-year deal. But, ok, if that theory existed at that time, it still had a tiny chance of being true. But now, after the guy is thrown so many passes that his season total is near the top of the franchise list of receptions in a single season and he was the 4th-most "targeted" receiver in the entire NFL, to still claim with a straight face that the Pats phased him out of the offense is staggering in its delusional stubbornness.

Stegles and JJ, is there any reason to think that Trent Cole isn't done? A chronic over-achiever until last year when, well, he wasn't very good, he's now 30, and it wouldn't be surprising that if his physical skills diminish a small bit, he won't have any tricks left up his sleeve.

I didn't remember that the Cole came via a traded-for pick, one of the great trades in Eagles history:
Cole was selected in the fifth round of the 2005 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles with the draft pick acquired from the Washington Redskins for wide receiver James Thrash.

You think Cole is going to play 3-4 end? He'd have to put on a lot of weight.

things:
1, i don't think it's ideal, but
2, he is so much more talented than the other options (thornton and dixon) that i think it's worth trying to fit him in there so that
3, you can get brandon graham and vinny curry on the field instead of one of those guys who's just a guy. and
4, cole is very good against the run and he has been dealing with constant double-teams over the last few years anyway so he's kind of had the same job description as a 3-4 end for a while.

Stegles and JJ, is there any reason to think that Trent Cole isn't done? A chronic over-achiever until last year when, well, he wasn't very good, he's now 30, and it wouldn't be surprising that if his physical skills diminish a small bit, he won't have any tricks left up his sleeve.

i don't disagree there, but what else are you gonna do?

if they had signed ricky jean-francois, then that would be a different situation. and if they do sign another 3-4 end, that would be a different situation, but for now, just writing it out in pencil, i think you have to plan on putting the most talent on the field that you can and leave it to the coaching staff to create a scheme that utilizes the talent.

He really wasn't, that's 100% hindsight. He went undrafted. He was cut by the Chargers. Over three years he totalled less than 100 catches, and a single touchdown. He was stuck about 4th on the Dolphins's WR depth chart, behind guys whose name I can't even remember.

Welker, 25, is a terrific, if unheralded playmaker who has earned a spot on the ESPN.com "all unsung" team each of the past two seasons. Used principally as a return specialist in his first two seasons in the league, Welker emerged as a viable receiving threat in 2006, with 67 catches for 687 yards and a touchdown.

He was 49th in DYAR, 48th in DVOA, 65th in WPA, and 53rd in EPA. He was one of the best slot receivers in the league that year. That's a good player.

in the 2nd round, i would #### meself with glee if the eagles could pull matt elam. he's a bit undersized, but he's fast, he's physical, and he has a nose for the ball. the way i look at this draft, i think he is the only DB that i would take in the first 3 rounds. this class is pretty loaded in the defensive backfield, so i would plan on waiting until the mid rounds (4-5-6) to draft whoever gets left on the board, rather than use a 2nd or 3rd round pick to draft someone who's only marginally better. right now, elam is the only exception to this strategy.

ideally, the eagles come out of day 2 with something like eric fisher, matt elam, brandon williams and an extra draft pick or two in the 3rd day.

then you get into rounds 4, 5 and 6, where you cleanup any DBs that are left on the board and maybe pick up a TE. you're not gonna get the pick of the litter, but with how many quality prospects there are this year, there will be players available that are capable of starting.

then you get into round 7, which is really a crapshoot, but the eagles have 5 picks (including 1 compensatory selection) in the round, and between this being roseman and gamble in the front office and kelly's system on the field, i have very little doubt that they'll find at least one real contributor.

oh, and as far as trade possibilities, i would think nick foles, trent edwards, dion lewis, jason avant, jeremy maclin, trent cole, and nate allen could be on the move.

i still don't think the eagles are going to be very good this year, but if you look at some of the players they've brought in, they're some very interesting possibilities.
you have dennis dixon at QB, arrelious benn and if... mm... at WR. then everette brown and clifton geathers at DE/OLB. and donnie jones as a punter.
dixon has a history with kelly. brown and benn were 2nd round picks. jones has a cannon on his hip, and i... m... is 6'4 and runs a sub 4.4 40. geathers is 6'7, 330 lbs, which makes him an ideal 3-4 DE for a team that didn't have one.

some of these guys might not/probably won't make the roster out of training camp, but there's some pedigree here and if you combine some of these guys with players who were already on the roster and established veterans who were signed in free agency this offseason and rookies who have yet to be drafted, and a new coaching staff with a new philosophy being supported by a new front office.
this really is gonna be a whole new team. and it's kind of exciting.

oh, and as far as trade possibilities, i would think nick foles, trent edwards, dion lewis, jason avant, jeremy maclin, trent cole, and nate allen could be on the move.

that didn't take long. dion lewis was traded for emmanuel acho.

i guess acho will add depth at LB and on special teams and maybe compete for the starting spot on the strongside, but he could also just as easily be cut during training camp.

lewis actually looked pretty decent when he got on the field, but at best he was going to be 3rd on the team's depth chart at RB, and considering he adds very little on special teams, the eagles should be able to find someone who's a better use of a roster spot.

Yes, between Cole and Graham since the other 3 starting spots are locked up.

i don't think cole is guaranteed to be on the roster coming out of the draft. and i don't think barwin or graham are guaranteed to be in the starting lineup, either. though FWIW, it seems like mychal kendricks isn't guaranteed to start either, so it seems like the coaching staff is leaving a lot of wiggle room all around.

anyway, the draft is hours away, and with the eagles drafting 4th, i figure i might take a look at who's been drafted 3-4-5 in past drafts.

going back to 09, you have tyson jackson, aaron curry, and mark sanchez.
in 2010, you had gerald mccoy, trent williams, and eric berry.
in 2011, you had marcel dareus, aj green, and patrick peterson.
and then in 2012, you had trent richardson, matt kalil, and justin blackmon.

if you compare those names to the 4 guys who i prefer this year (joeckel, fisher, jordan, and johnson), only aj green and patrick peterson are clearly better. so for all the talk about this being a weak draft, i think the eagles are actually pretty okay. and if the raiders pluck shariff floyd, then it sets up even better for them.

ideally, the eagles come out of day 2 with something like eric fisher, matt elam, brandon williams and an extra draft pick or two in the 3rd day.

this probably won't be my last post before the draft, but right now, i'm thinking something like this:

if eric fisher is on the board, i'd take him over anyone else...but i think the eagles would get more value from trading down. i love fisher; if he's on the board at 4, i think he'd be the best overall prospect, and he plays a premium position which is also one that the eagles could use help at, but i think there's guys like him available every year. right now, jake mathews and taylor lewan are projected as top 10 picks next year, and while fisher can be great, so could they. so, if the eagles could pull 13 and 39 from the jets or 12 and 42 from the dolphins, i think that's moved up to the best case scenario for me.

figuring that the eagles get 12 and 42, in addition to 36 and 67, they could come out of friday with something like jonathan cooper, matt elam, margus hunt and john jenkins. that's 3 guys in the trenches and if that happens, their offensive line is better, their defensive line is better, their secondary is better, and with margus hunt's ability to block kicks, their special teams could go from worst to first. then you get into day 3, where you can clean up at TE (kasa), DB (hyde, mcgee) and OL (faulk).

or alternatively, you could go vaccaro at 12, manuel at 36, ertz at 42 and then trade out of the 3rd round to pick up extra ammo for day 3. that doesn't help you in the trenches, but vaccaro is an elite talent at safety, ertz is a really solid all-around TE and manuel has a ton of potential if things click for him.

on the other hand, the worst case scenario imo, would be:
4: star lotulelei
36 + 67 traded for a 1st round pick in the 20s: geno smith (or an even worse scenario: matt barkley)

with star, i just find it hard to imagine that he'll be able to chase down QBs like griffin, kaepernick, newton and wilson, and with those guys being the future of the NFC, i think he's really the worst guy they could plausibly draft.

and then with geno smith, if the eagles pass on him at 4, then that makes it really hard to sell him as a franchise QB because teams don't pass on franchise QBs like that, and the ones that do wind up with brady quinn and jimmy clausen.

so, if the eagles could pull 13 and 39 from the jets or 12 and 42 from the dolphins, i think that's moved up to the best case scenario for me.

I think there is basically no chance this happens. I don't see anybody in this draft worth moving up from 12/13 to 4 at any significant price. It doesn't seem like there's any buzz around teams looking to move into the Top 5 either.