This method is based on a statistical analysis, so you need reliable stats, as the ones available here at the Online Betting Academy.

After this initial statistical analysis comes a qualitative analysis: I suggest a 50/50 approach for best profitability. Remember, a good analysis minimizes mistakes and losses and will help you get a good profitability, so be thorough in your analysis.

This is a 2 selection market, so in a short period you can get good results because the odds are usually high, around 1.70, which will give you a profit of 70% in each bet you win. This means you need to win 3 out of 4 bets to have a profit.

Let's have a look at some numbers:

Statistical analysis: 50% of the final bet decision

The first step is to look at each team stats:

What is the percentage of matches in which the team scores goals?

What is the percentage of matches in which the team concedes goals?

Let's analyse the stats of the head to head between Athletic Bilbao and Valencia (match stats page)

We have the following stats:

Athletic Bilbao/Home:

scored at least one goal in 79% of the matches and

conceded at least one goal in 64%.

Valencia /Away:

scored at least one goal in 86% of the matches and

conceded at least one goal in 79%.

I propose a 6 step analysis to calculate the probability of goals by both teams:

Step 1: Calculate the average of matches with goals scored of Bilbao and goals taken by Valencia (79+79)/2=79%;

Step 2: Calculate the average of matches with goals scored by Valencia and goals taken by Bilbao: (86+64)/2=75%;

Step 3: Divide both percentages by 100 and you get the probabilities: 0.79 and 0.75;

Step 4: Calculate the probability of both scenarios by multiplying these previous individual probabilities 0.79x0.75=0.5925;

Step 5: Multiply that by 100 and you get the probability of goals by both teams 100 x 0.5925= 59.25% probability;

Step 6: Get the odd by calculating the inverse of the probability: 1/0.5925=1.68.

Well then, you now have the odd based on the statistical analysis, which will be the starting point: you should only bet if you can find an odd over 1.68 in a bookmaker.

But if you want my advice, you should only bet with probabilities of over 50%.

Qualitative analysis: 50% of the final bet decision

Absence or comeback of important players:

Many times the absence of important players forces a team to change game patterns, passing precision drops, offensive efficiency is lost and a whole range of problems can arise that go against the statistical analysis, based on previous matches in which these players were available.

On the contrary, the return of important players has the opposite effect and the team improves, which means they are more likely to score and/or more likely to avoid conceding goals.

Coach change:

In leagues such as the Brazilian, there are constant coach changes, which usually imply changes on how the team plays. This means the stats based on previous matches are no longer reliable.

Analysis of the weather conditions:

This is an ofen overlooked factor that may have a great influence. I speak from personal experience, since I have had losses due to poor weather conditions, like heavy rain or strong wind. Such conditions usually mean fewer goals, since it's harder to play.

Ability to score against stronger teams:

For some this may not be very important, but I have tested this and know that weaker teams can score against stronger ones, so you need to look at the "Ranking analysis of all matches in Home/Away condition" table and beware of such teams.

Team Motivation:

This is particularly important in end of the season matches. Sometimes, the stats indicate that there is a tendency for goals by both teams, but one of them is no longer fighting for any goals in the competition. In such cases the team which is fighting for something is more likely to score and, on the contrary, the team that no longer fights for any goals in the competition is less likely to score.

Accumulated fatigue:

This is another overlooked factor. I have placed bets with a high probability of goals by both teams and lost because one of the teams had had a match in the middle of the week. The players were clearly not in the best shape, particularly after hard matches, that is, derbies, against rivals, after extended time, etc.

Very strong against very weak teams:

Sometimes the stats indicate that both teams will score, but even if the weaker team plays at home, it will have problems scoring against a much stronger team, particularly if the strong team is a dominating one, that likes to control the matches through ball possession. In such cases the weak team will have but a few chances to attack and score.

Long travels in away matches:

A long trip can be very tiring, we all know that from experience. Therefore, in away matches that imply long travels this is something you should watch out for. In such matches the effect is similar to the accumulated fatigue.

I hope I have helped you with this article and that you, may also profit from this method like I did.

Don't forget to take notes of anything out of the ordinary, so you can refine this method to better suit you skills and increase your profitability.

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