AAPL Death-Cross Pushes Dow To Highs

Of course, it makes perfect sense - the largest market cap company in the world drops further and experiences a death cross and sure enough - the evergreen Dow Jones Industrial Average ended near the highs of the day - well north of the critical 'retirement-on' 13,000. In general risk-assets were quietly correlated with stocks today (amid relatively quiet volume on the major averages) but we note that the capital structure ETFs in general were less exuberant - though they did get a little bounce after the consumer credit data. All-in-all, the Dow stood alone in its non-AAPL exuberance as the rest of the market was mired in the sentment shift that is occurring (note the Dow saw ts 50DMA cross below its 100DMA and its closed perfectly intersecting with those averages). Must be the 'great' jobs number, right? Treasury yields end near their lows of the week, USD near its highs, Gold down on the week though at 3-day highs (supporting stocks), and high-yield credit weak today. Paging Skynet...

The S&P remained considerably more excited that credit/rates/vol today - though the latter did tend to keep pulling back up...

and the Dow's rise is very exciting for Pisani et al... but we wonder just what the machines were thinking when we see it close spot on its 50DMA, 100DMA and saw them cross each other in their own little death cross...

We hate to burst everyone's bubble (everyone being the herd of hedge fund managers who remain 'stuck') but there is only one reason why AAPL's stock is falling. Forget the fundamentals, its not about higher margins at a second-tier clearing agent, and it's not about arbitraging CNBC prognosticators. It's sentiment - plain and simple. The death crossing of the 50DMA below the 200DMA, while exciting and pretty to look at, merely reflects the shift from most loved to most hated as every manager who lauded the magical exponential rise is now talking it up while selling it down to reduce that over-weighting. An ugly end to an ugly week as we suspect the modest bid under the S&P remains due to the beta-hedged AAPL unwinds. WWJTD?

And the last 3 days - it is very clear that institutional selling is in play as VWAPs get hit and drop...

The impulse of evolution is not small - but it doesn't happen all at once. The "old ways" are trying very hard to hold the "norm" together but the change is coming. To the financial system, TPTB, the tyranny. Because evolution happens even when denounced.

"death cross" is the most inane t/a ever dreamed up. There is no such viable thing and a study of all that have occurred reveals zero predictive power. I love the analysis here but you really should dispense with the voodoo...it is all meaningless irrational illogical babble and buzzword

Yeah, yeah. I believe this bear market started in 2000 in terms of gold valuation. Either way, its a long term bear market we are in, and when you look at the past bear markets of the 20th century, at the end of the bear market all principle was in the negative and took many years afterwords to get back to even after inflation adjustments.

If you've been following the markets for the last two years (which, judging by your post, it doesn't seem you have), you will have noticed that on the days in which AAPL saw huge ramps, the entire market was lifted upwards. However, now that there is heavy institutional selling, TPTB is having a harder time lifting AAPL. So what do they do? Keep Dow lifted instead. That is the gist of what the Tylers are saying. I know it's tough to follow but keep trying.

My following is that AAPL doesn't quite correlate to the QQQ / NASDAQ but it is closer to QQQ than anything else, and QQQ correlates to SPY some of the time - visibly clear patterns using log-scale each axis. Try QQQ x-axis (common) and for the Y-axis left try AAPL and right try SPY. See the pattern emerge.

This is NOT lifting the DOW. The DOW is being lifted in a large way from multiple shots while the QQQ is being lifted BECAUSE of the Dow and dragging its big components with it - until APPL truly looked like crap & GOOG had their mid-trading-day fuckup which simply had NO repair possible at that point.

Kevin can't be bothered with such realities. Is only job is to keep the masses thinking tht they are missing out on a great bull market by manipulating the only market index that the masses believe to be relevant.

I've got a third gen. iTouch. Back when it was new, the feeling wasn't so much "this thing is really walled off" as it was "wow, look at all the apps they've got in this one convenient location."

These days though, given the proliferation of all sorts of apps, the control issues have become glaring. Especially if you're a developer. So, for me, I'll never develop an app for any device, but rather will rely on HTML5 and whatever other mobile web technologies appear.

As for Android, well, I don't trust it anymore than I do Apple. What they lack in control is more than made up for by the constant spying. Almost every app I get these days wants to access everything on the device.

Only after jail breaking the thing did it truly become mine, and not apple's property. Apple doesn't even have 1 "approved" ad-blocker app. WTF?

What's funny is all the people I know who love crApple products are all liberals too. Most are stupid enough to think Obomber (President Fake Birth Certificate) can fix the economy! What a bunch of maroons.

Well, I just read an article on Yahoo Finance, citing Jim Cramer, advising everyone not to panic. A few choice excerpts:

"Let me just say, for the record, this is all nuts," said Cramer. Apple has become a story of the holders, not the products. It is a story of the chart, not the fundamentals. It is a story of fear, not of opportunity."

In other words, when it was going up, it was the stock to buy. Now that it is going down, it's the stock to sell.

But if you're short Apple, Cramer thinks you'd better make your move quickly - that is, he doesn't see a lot more downside.

He thinks downside momentum will be eclipsed by something far more important - fundamentals that are optimistic.

And Cramer sees plenty of reason for optimism.

"We could find out that Apple's going to be able to put out ten times more iPads because the device is supplanting the PC market. We could find out the iPhone will have had bigger sales than we thought. We may even hear an OMG product might be on the way," said Cramer.

The current price action isn't factoring in much if any of that.

In addition, "as the stock goes down, the amount of cash on the books makes the stock that much more attractive," Cramer added. "We're talking $100 billion in cash-and growing-as shares decline that becomes an increasing percentage of the company."

All told, Cramer said the most likely outcome is that "The valuation will become so cheap that it would be too compelling for informed investors not to own."

But what about the negative technicals and the death cross we mentioned above - technicals that are getting a lot of attention.

"Meaningless at this point," said Cramer.

Cramer may be onto something. Research from CNBC's Fast Money shows analysts who study charts seem to be a lot more bearish on the stock than analysts and investors who concentrate on fundamentals.

Cramer believes it's only a matter of time before sentiment changes and Apple bulls step in. "If it visits the low 500s again, it's time to buy," he said.

This is great stuff, isn't it? "We may even hear an OMG product might be on the way." Awesome. We may even. Hell, we may hear the Gettysburg Address out my ass, too. It could happen.

Even better, "Analysts who study charts seem to be a lot more bearish on the stock [AAPL] than analysts and investors who concentrate on the fundamentals." And what about people who give weight to Jim Cramer's stated opinions? Oh, wait. We can't really sample them because they now live under bridges and can't access their e-trade accounts anymore.

This whole "cheap valuation" crap always falls apart when a company has huge sales and earnings growth then it slows a lot. The PE will drop and people think it is cheap. The growth story is very close to being over at Apple.