Will U.S. Linear Video Accounts Grow in 2017?

Though customer losses get the headlines, it is net gains or losses for any legacy service that matter, not just the number of customers who drop service.

The reason: though churn matters for any legacy service in a zero-sum market, net account gains or losses matter more.

Consider a recent forecast by cg42 that perhaps 800,000 U.S. customers will drop linear video subscriptions over the next year.

What that same study also suggests is that six percent of survey respondents who never have bought linear video said they are “very or extremely likely” to subscribe to cable in the next 12 months.

If there are about 16.9 million “cord-never” households, that could represent a gain of perhaps one million households. If 800,000 accounts are lost (and not not switched to another provider), it is conceivable that there could be a net gain of about 200,000 accounts.

Linear TV might be a mature product, but its decline remains very slow, with year-over-year account loss of less than one percent, on a net basis.

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Gary Kim has been a communications industry analyst and journalist for more than 25 years, and currently works mostly as a content developer (marketing copy, white papers, applied research, conference and blog content).

He speaks often at industry events, has written one book and a half dozen major market studies and 14,000 articles.

His work is noted for its examination of business model issues, especially wireless and mobile.

He recently founded the Spectrum Futures conference for the Pacific Telecommunications Council.

He was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes; ranked second in the world for strategic coverage of the mobile business.

He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top 2 percent.