Hot on the heels of an event that produced the most watched fight in
U.S. MMA history, the UFC’s pay-per-view train rolls on with a
five-course combat meal to this past weekend’s UFC on FOX appetizer.

No fewer than six former big-show champions grace the main card of UFC 139, though some sit more comfortably than others in long-term viability.

And while no immediate title shots are promised, the winner of a main event between the highly decorated Dan Henderson and former UFC light-heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua could take the job with an impressive performance and the occupation of rightful challenger Rashad Evans.

Evans, of course, was forced to turn down a title shot a year and a half in the making. That allowed Lyoto Machida to step into No. 1 title contender position in a headliner bout against current champ Jon Jones next month at UFC 140. Evans could fight the winner of the bout in early 2012, though he has stated he’d likely take another fight to avoid the long layoff he experienced this past year.

That could open the door for Henderson (28-8 MMA, 4-2 UFC) or Rua (20-5 MMA, 4-3 UFC), though the winner of Saturday’s bout could also face Evans for No. 1 status depending on the health of the UFC 140 winner.

UFC 139 takes place at HP Pavilion in San Jose, Calif. The main card and airs live on pay-per-view while prelims air on Spike TV and stream on Facebook. It’s the second numbered UFC event to feature a five-round non-title fight as its headliner.

The 41-year-old Henderson has prepped for 25 minutes in the cage on five occasions but has gone the distance twice. Recently, he hasn’t needed the championship rounds to revive a career that briefly stalled when he left the UFC in the summer of 2009 for a Strikeforce contract and lost to Jake Shields. He has knocked out three consecutive opponents: Renato “Babalu” Sobral, Rafael Cavalcante (for the Strikeforce light-heavyweight belt) and Fedor Emelianenko (in a non-title heavyweight bout).

With the purchase of Strikeforce in March, Henderson, whose contract expired with his bout against Emelianenko, was a prime candidate for a move back to the UFC. Saturday’s event marks his first appearance in the octagon since July 2009, when he knocked out fellow “The Ultimate Fighter 9″ coach Michael Bisping in emphatic fashion.

For four years, Henderson fought parallel to Rua in the now-defunct PRIDE, where Rua shot to the top of the promotion’s light-heavyweight division. Rua had just defeated Alistair Overeem when Henderson knocked out his teammate and mentor, Wanderlei Silva, at PRIDE 33.

That the two never met overseas is part of the sometimes-intricate process of putting together fights between MMA stars. But with PRIDE no more and Strikeforce hovering in limbo, Henderson vs. Rua is happening. Maybe a little later than sooner, but still.

Rua, who was just behind Henderson in crossing over from PRIDE to the UFC, returned to the win column after stopping former champ Forrest Griffin at UFC 134 to avenge a submission loss in his first octagon appearance at UFC 76. The Brazilian knocked out Machida at UFC 113 to win the light-heavyweight title only to lose it one fight later to Jon Jones at UFC 128.

Knee injuries, and the recovery from them, have shadowed Rua’s accomplishments in the UFC.

Some scenarios to consider for Saturday’s headliner:

1.) Henderson rolls the dice with the right. “Hendo” isn’t some big stylistic riddle to figure out. He’s got a concussive right hand, and he may decide that Rua doesn’t have the power to hurt him and bully the Brazilian around the cage. But in doing that, he could run into Rua’s devastating leg kicks, which eventually will take the spring from his step and force a change in tactic – or rather, a close in distance as Henderson presses Rua against the cage and roughs him up there. Rua, in turn, will try to get space to unleash knees or put together a flurry of hooks and uppercuts in close, but he may also try to take Henderson down from a bodylock. Which leads to …

2.) Rua puts “Hendo” on his back. Henderson has, of course, spent years bringing his bottom game to parity with that of his control from top position. But it will never be his specialty, and in that lies an opportunity for Rua to take a scrambling Henderson’s back and work for a rear-naked choke. Rua has always been good at punishing opponents from top position, and even if he isn’t able to force Henderson into a mistake, he may rack up winning points and tire out Henderson in the long haul.

3.) Two can play at that game. As a Greco-Roman wrestler, Henderson is more than well-equipped to hang with Rua in the clinch, stealing the body-lock position Rua so favors for a takedown or trip of his own. Rua hasn’t really faced as durable and consistent a wrestler as Henderson, so he could be in for a long night if he winds up on his back.

Rua, however, is excellent at capitalizing on small milliseconds of weakness in his opponents. Despite a striking style that looks more like a brawler than a technician, he’s managed to find openings that allow him to finish quickly. Henderson’s chin may be durable enough to take a few of his best, but over five rounds, that may not be the case.

Le’s original opponent was Vitor Belfort, but the matchup fizzled when Belfort pulled out of the fight with an injury. That left Silva to fill the vacancy, and almost immediately the focus of the bout shifted. When Silva stepped up, it had been mere months since Chris Leben knocked him out in what was his fourth loss in six fights since transferring from PRIDE to the UFC. After the Leben loss, UFC president Dana White even said it was “probably the end of the road” for the beloved fighter. Silva, though, wasn’t keen on quitting.

Le himself has confronted retirement. The 39-year-old fighter was almost ready to hang up his gloves when he sat on the shelf following his most recent fight, a knockout win over Scott Smith in June 2010 that avenged a previous loss. But when the UFC purchased Strikeforce, Le harbored hopes of fighting in the octagon, and as a huge draw in San Jose, he campaigned to fight in the octagon and extended his career with the UFC 139 booking.

Both fighters have promised a slugfest, though it’s debatable which fighter can withstand one. Silva has shown an increasing vulnerability to punches as a function of the many knockout losses he’s suffered in his career, and Le crumpled the first time he took a serious shot in his relatively short MMA career (which followed a long and decorated career in kickboxing). The fight may be decided by who can land first.

To that end, Le has shown an amazing ability to keep opponents off balance with a variety of kicking attacks. The X-factor for him is that he’s been out of the cage for 18 months. Silva, meanwhile, is well-known for deadly flurries of punches, but he’s got to close the distance to deliver his punishment.

Either way, someone could be retiring at the conclusion of the bout – especially if it ends violently.

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