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Early Morning Thoughts

Transcript of Video:

Everybody happy morning. Second try, tried this a minute ago. Leaning over the balcony here just had a morning conversation with my wife, which was pretty much gonna be the best part of my day until I see her later on.

And I had a couple morning thoughts out here looking out over the mountains. Getting ready to find some place to have pancakes. I had this thought that yesterday when I was on the plane I took a trade on the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar. And I switched directions. I originally bought it, and then I was on the plane, and I realized I’d made a mistake, and so …

Anyway I was in a buy trade, and I realized I really ought to be in a sell trade. So I was on an airplane sitting next to an oil trader of all people. He trades oil for the largest private oil trading firm in the universe, even if you count Rick and Morty. Even larger than any oil firm in their universe.

Anyway so I’m having this conversation with him, and trying to manage a trade, and I realize sometimes I’m long when I really ought to be short. And the best thing to do is just number one is just admit it, and then switch the directions around. That’s number one. And to not be afraid of switching the directions on a trade. That’s not a really big deal.

And then second of all once I take the trade, and I feel good about it, and there’s a different feeling associated with trading in that right direction, then just leaving it alone. My friend Pete [Garner’s 00:01:55] here. He’s got a great strategy for trading stocks for example. And one of the things that Pete says is he says. Pete you say it. You could say it right here inside the stream. You can leave it in the comments.

But Pete says, “Trust the trade. Just take it and trust it. If it’s the trade, just trust it.” But if you really feel like you made exactly the wrong decision, or didn’t follow the rules, you don’t have to trust it. You can reverse it until you feel comfortable in your own skin in that trade.

Coming full circle here there’s this feeling of comfort, or appropriateness, or whatever it is, that will come when you take a trade, that is the right one. And trading is technical, and it is mathematical, and it is all those things. And sometimes it’s even statistical, and all that stuff. But there’s this other element of it that you either feel good, or you don’t feel good about the way that it is. And once you get to that feeling you gotta trust it, and leave that position on.

And that’s really difficult to do. It’s like maybe one of the hardest things to do. Right? Is get to the point where you get in trades for technical reasons, but then you stay in trades because you know it’s the right thing to do. And that can only come with experience. Anyway it’s just some super early morning thoughts out here as the sun is coming up. And I’m gonna be on the hunt, on the prowl for pancakes in about five minutes here.

I love you all. It’s nice to see you in the morning here. I’ll talk to you later. Bye.