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NFL Picks

NFL Picks Broncos vs. Texans ATS

The Denver Broncos survived what could have been a disaster last week,
but thanks the other top teams in the AFC also losing, they reclaimed the top
spot for another. Those making NFL picks and preferring Denver are likely going
to have to hand out double digits, is this something you would consider with
your sports picks?

Denver Seeking Quick Fixes While Keeping Big Picture Thoughts

More than one football player or coach has said
“Winning is a great deodorant”, referring to a potential shortcoming a team
might have that is overlooked because the victories keep piling up. Yet there
are also those “ah ha” moments when something has been fixed or is figured out.

In the first half of the season, the Denver
secondary was regularly picked part and while a concern, the Broncos were
winning, the last line of defense was not completely healthy and they were
stout against the run.

Fast forward to this week and Denver is still
28th in yards allowed passing and San Diego ran the ball down the
throats of John Fox’s defense for 177 yards, keeping Peyton Manning on the
sidelines for over 38 minutes in the upset of the Broncos.

NFL football handicappers like yours truly
uncovered the Broncos defense has been shredded for 137.1 yards a contest the
past six weeks. While this has numbers-wise improved the pass defense, this
keeps the offense off the field, which is not playing to Denver’s strengths.

With the playoffs looming, Fox has to find
solutions swiftly if he is really coaching a Super Bowl quality team.

Sportsbooks posted Denver as a 9.5-point favorite and quicker
than a Tony Romo late game interception, the Broncos were up to -10.5. Houston
is a sorry 3-11 ATS this season.

The NFL odds on the total opened at 51 points and did not
budge. Denver is 11-3 OVER this season and historically is 12-2 OVER after
gaining less than 50 yards rushing.

What to
Watch For

Look for Denver to want to reestablish the run after gaining
only 18 yards against the Chargers. The
additional benefit of running well is it takes the Texans desire to play away and
at that point Manning can go to work in the passing game.

The Broncos defense has to be tougher at the point of attack
and the linebackers either have to fill better or shed blocks quicker. A strong
pass rush is required to limit exposure to the safeties.

Having lost an even dozen, every Houston player outside of
J.J. Watt has to look themselves in the mirror and be accountable for their
job. The defense needs to show pride and be better in every facet.

Quarterback Case Keenum is regressing and the Texans coaches
might want to simplify the game plan and give him a chance to get in any sort
of groove to help his team move the ball.

Final Outcome

As I said in the SBR
Forum Value Plays article, this could get ugly and Denver winning by less than
20 points would surprise me. We won't hesitate adding the Broncos to our NFL picks this week.