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Beat the Streak Report: Weekend, August 20-22

Since I’m not eligible to win the $3 million Beat the Streak grand prize, I might as well try to help you out. Every weekday, make sure to check out the Beat the Streak Report to improve your odds with all the stats goodness you could ever dream of. You know, assuming you could use an extra three mill.

August 20-22

The referee is stepping in!

He’s stopping the fight — there’s the bell. This one’s over, folks!

James Loney went 0-for-4 last night against Jorge De La Rosa and Matt Reynolds, ending Geoff Croke’s bid for $3,000,000 and Beat the Streak immortality at 43 games.

“Gfc2112” will have to settle for a tie with Dick George atop the season leaderboard.

I guess I’m feeling kind of spicy as I did choose Granderson. He hits King Felix well and has 2 hits against him this year already so hoping it continues tonight and King Felix isn’t as dominant as he once was.
BTS- Granderson
HR BTS- Miggy
Survivor-Phillies

Playing better by observations:
Remember Sunday for the “Sunshine Boys” – Alex Rios and Troy Tuolwitizi. Also, LAD are a great pick in Survivor when ex-Cub Ted Lilly pitches (probably on Tuesday.) Lilly has brought his “A GAME” to LAD.
Posting tips can help us all – please post yours as our blogger friend did two weeks ago about Troy Tulo getting a hit in every day game he played in this year.
Little things matter.

Baseball players tend to get tired & lose concentration towards end of season. Must happen to us BTS players too. Halfway to Dick/Geoff, “sal.nascimento” @ 22 on BTS, failed to make a selection. Halfway to brentandcam, and is currently the leader, “yankeehater500” @ 15 on Survivor, failed to make a selection. A bit odd?

Dave – Break the tie for us- Which of the 2 guys tied at 43 is actually in first place based on the tie breaker? “The player who amassed the most hits during his streak.”
Wanted to take Derrek Lee in HR BTS but could not as he is not listed as a member of Atlanta Braves yet – he was traded to the Braves on Wed. I see when players go on the DL their names are quickly taken off the BTS team roster — let’s do the same for adding traded players.
Friday August 20
BTS – Alexi “The Cuban Missle” Ramirez
HR – not Derek Lee so it’s Konerko
Survivor – Phils over Nats and Jason Marquis.
Hope Marquis does not get hurt by a line drive. He is a mere shell of the man who once was great as a Cardinal.
Now his Northern League stuff is pretty bad. Hope he one hits the Phils but loses 1-0 on an Utley HR.:)
Good Luck to all today.

Prize money for 2011??
Time to lobby the MLB Gods for appropriate prizes for next season:
1. BTS – $3M is great. Remember last year it was $1M and we chatted up the fact that this was too low and it got raised. Power to the bloggers! Suggestion: $25K for a streak 40 or better if you are the winner. 2nd prize 40 or better $10K. 3rd Prize 40 or better $5K.
2. HR BTS ? Chance of winning (11 game streak) is about the same as climbing Mt. Everest in a blizzard in T-Shirt & Bermuda shorts on your hands and knees with a blind Sherpa Guide. Come on MLB! This year there is no prize beyond 1st place ? ouch! $100K for winning with 11 or better – $25K if you win with 7 or better. 2nd prize $10K (over 7 games) 3rd prize $5K with over 7 games. Current alternate prize for 1st place is 2 tickets to All-Star Game with no accommodations or airfare (What is the value of this? $300?)
3. Survivor ? Nice prize for 1st place and over 37 games in place now let?s but let?s add $10K to Tickets and accommodations for All-Star Game. But no prize beyond 1st place ? Come on! Suggestion: Above 25 games streak for the season: 1st place $5K – $1,000 shopping spree at MLB.com for 2nd place and $500 spree for 3rd place.
Please comment guys!

Since you asked for comments and not necessarily agreement.
BTS:
a. Up the consolation prize in BTS to $25K. Agreed
b. No additional prizes other than MLB.com gift store certificates
Survivor:
a. Up the top streak money portion of the prize in Survivor to consolation prize in BTS (similar to now).
b. Consolation prize is weak… Here’s 2 tickets you have to pay taxes on & also you pay travel/lodging out of your own pocket. At very least mail tickets and let winner sell them if they choose
b. Additional prizes? Raise MLB.com gift store certificates
HR BTS. Don’t really care ’cause I don’t think it is attainable
a. Top streak prize: A trip on an upcoming Shuttle mission to the Space Station. Probably never have to worry about paying out. Otherwise, agree increasing prize amount.
b. Consolation prizes. Sure increase amount at MLB.com gift store. Money? Nope.
As for spreading prize money out to 3rd, 4th, 5th place or more? Why? This is a lottery of sorts. Winner should take all or nearly all. Sharing the wealth is something the government is good at, not what a contest should do. That’s my opinion.

Pony – Great comments and the Space Shuttle suggestion is super lol! 🙂
Trying to create dialog here to make prizes better and in keeping with the difficulty of the task.
MLB gift certificates would be easy to do.

neil_p – Picks of the Day are usually locked in 3 or so days before game day. ChiSox v. KC was a single game then.
2nd game of DH? – There should be one list of KC players to pick from – whoever you take in game 1 is your automatic pick in game 2 – can’t split your picks between different playes in a DH . Stay away – Absolute rookie mistake to play a double header.
Saturday 8/21
BTS – Infante is hot Cubs are in the North Pole (Thanks narberg for this one)
HR – Will Lincecum groove a fastball to Sir Albert – I hope so.
Survivor – Twins at home and hot Slowey look good.
Good Luck to all today.

DH rule is unfair but this is the way it is.
Remember: Never play a doubleheader in BTS, HR BTS or Survivor.
Small clarification: Your player must get a hit in both games of DH if he plays in both games. If he plays in one game and gets a hit and does not play in the other game, your streak continues. Don’t take the chance here. Move to another player or game.
NYY v. Seattle looks to be a wild one today. As was posted before, ball carries well at Yankee Stadium in the daytime (Ichiro leads off the game with a HR.)

The dumbest thing is that if you take a player in a doubleheader and he gets a hit in each game your streak will only increase by 1. In a doubleheader pick it’s double the chance to be reset, it should be double the reward if that player gets a hit in each game.

Please help on a rules question. The official rules on a player and a double header are confusing. The rule states a player must get at least one hit in both games. My thinking is that he (Butler) should get a hit in either game for the streak to continue. Please advise

Picks?… Chose LAA over MIN seeing if the “don’t pick team against pitcher never seen before” rule applies. MIN hasn’t seen LAA pitcher.
Polanco reset me last night, so it’s do or die starting tonight (or tie potential starting tomorrow). Well, all my strategies netted me 1 20-gamer and lots of 6/7-gamers. Realistically, my odds of getting 45 this year is close to nil, I think I’ll try a strategy I haven’t employed yet: picking only players batting over 400 against the pitcher. Why not, what do I have to lose really? So… Beltre today.
But just one rainout or benched player will end the year for anyone of us — added picking pressure? Good luck all.

“I have found that the “sweet spot” for your strategy is actually between .200-.500 with 10+ AB’s.”
Makes fantastic sense though I’d prefer the low-end to be around 250-280. But any strategy over a 2 month long contest wll also rely on quite a bit of luck to get a 40+ streak.

BTS has too many variables for a formula to work to get you to a 57 game streak. The research etc. will help but the factor of good fortune/luck is huge. I’m trying to go with Cubs/WhiteSox players or their opponents of that day v. the knowledge of Cubs/Sox pitchers. Got nothing to lose at this point. Also, using Ichiro as a backup pick.
Observations: Juan Pierre, Alexi Ramirez, Starlon Castro have all come through for me recently. You won’t see them on the top 15 list. Also watching for good posts – e.g. Troy Tulowitzki has a hit in every day game he played in this season.

Sunday: If you were reset Friday or Saturday and still are eager to finish the season without any resets, keep in touch with Mother Nature. A lot of rain in the forecast tomorrow and you don’t want a rainout taking you out of the race.
Looking at NYY to win & Vlad or Werth (undecided) to get a hit.

Well today is going to be a good day I hope. Here are my picks. I opted against Tulowitzki even though he has a hit in every day game as Rocks are facing D Backs and Hudson and they haven’t seen Hudson yet and every time they face the pitcher for the first time the team gets shut down.

BTS- Uggla, He just ended a hitting streak yesterday but I think he will get a hit today. He is still hot and he looks promising.

HR BTS-Ike Davis, Pittsburgh is a good leftie ball park and wind is blowing out to right field so I love the odds of him getting a hit.

Well I am going with Hamilton today, but rain is in the forecast all day really and the game is delayed right now. I am at 17 (season high) so I can afford a couple rainouts (did not play) but not to many. I really wanted to pick a Ranger as everyone hits Millwood well. Hopefully the game will still get played today. GL everyone!!

Go figure. Rain delay for TEX/BAL. At least weather.com indicates nothing that is going to last too long nor too heavy. Appears elimination won’t occur due to rainout for me, Vlad going 0-fer or sitting is another story. Ugh!

@pony-thanks!! It is nice to get that hit in the first at bat and not have to worry about it the rest of the day. Tomorrow is going to be a little harder making a pick I think. GL to everyone else still and hopefully the whole TEX/BAL game will get played.

Well as my pick didn’t do anything again I’m officially done with BTS for this year. My luck sucks and this has been the worst year ever for me in BTS. Can’t get anything going and I’m not blogging anymore either. Will quietly play to see what happens. I can’t win anything which sucks and the people who play for the first year and get 30 game and 20 game streaks can go F themselves. I haven’t gotten to 20 in 10 years of playing.

From reading Vinny1979’s posts, I can tell you one part of the logic that I don’t agree with. His picks are mostly based on so-and-so has been hot for past how many days, etc. But he always pick them as soon as they’re about to end the hot streak or have ended already.

Th hardest part of BTS is catching hot hitter at the beginning of his streak. Its easy to see who has been hot. You just have to bring up the 7 or one month data. Obvisouly, the hitter is not gonna hit .400 forever. I mean the perfect example is Infante now. He is just hot but you know he has to cool off soon but when?

I am still hanging on by the threads here. I am at the highest point for the year with Hamilton today. I was very worried that either they were gonna walk him and that it was a day game-away but I figured Millwood would suck so badly to make up for it.

And talk about luck. The rain delay kicks Sabathia to early shower and Ichiro sqeuaks a el cheapo off over the hill and broken Wood. That is luck for you. You will need at least 7 to 8 of those to go your way plus make decent picks. Then you can possibly string together a bunck of 7 to 10 streaks to add up to 57.

baseballgirlie13. I have been watching your picks. You make pretty good picks. I don’t think I know any girl who is knowledgeable and interested in baseball as you’re. I was talking to one my ex-s last week and she goes “did the baseball season start already?”.

from vinny1979: “I can’t win anything …”
Maybe not in BTS, but Survivor is still wide open. $10K for top prize too. Lower streak needed to win than in BTS. Though in many ways a hard game to win. 100% of us are all on the edge of being eliminated in BTS – just 1 reset away!

It was less than a great day for the “Sunshine Boys” Alex “El Gatto Sol” Rios and Troy “The Sun God” Tulowitzki but they both got hits Sunday in their day games.
Again, encoruaging all to make posts that help us all play better. Neither of these guys were in top 15 picks.
Tip for Monday: Cubs Starlin Castro was 4-5 on Sunday. Cubs play at Wash on Monday. The kid is 20 yrs old and looks like an All-Star. Does not walk much and bats second.
I’m thinking there is a hit or two in his bat v. Livan Hernandez.

Jayson Werth walked in 7th. Taking down quite a few with his team winning big & @ home. It was his last AB barring batting around. 2nd place leader dropped today via Pagan
@00liber: No more Top 2500 listings? Just curious. Assuming you’re still reading the blogs as you are still in the BTS $10K race with Tulo getting a hit today.

“The last 3 years have all had 1-game tiebreakers at the end of the season.”
A 1-game Oct 4th tiebreaker is not out of the question. Look at STL for example. After Sept 2nd, no days off til end of season. If they get a rainout that needs to be played and can’t be made up in that series as a doubleheader, Oct 4th is the day. I wouldn’t try to hold on to any hopes of winning if getting reset tomorrow or later though — doubt seriously any chance at all of having games Oct 5th.

“Well as my pick didn’t do anything again I’m officially done with BTS for this year. My luck sucks and this has been the worst year ever for me in BTS. Can’t get anything going and I’m not blogging anymore either. Will quietly play to see what happens. I can’t win anything which sucks and the people who play for the first year and get 30 game and 20 game streaks can go F themselves. I haven’t gotten to 20 in 10 years of playing.”

Keep trying!!!

The last 3 years have all had 1-game tiebreakers at the end of the season.

@pony. Ya I’m still around but I’m out camping this weekend. I’ll be back tommorrow and will still continue to post top2500. Only got the iPhone out here so I can’t run my program. Ya Tulo kept me alive today, now at 2.

@btsplayer-thank you. I really love baseball and have been trying my best all year. This is my highest so far and hopefully it will continue tomorrow. I am going to go with Hamilton again I think. My strategy is pretty simple. I look at how someone hits the opposing pitcher. Then I look at the batters splits. If it is a lefty and they hit righties really well with a righty pitcher for the day then that is a plus. Then I look at day/night splits and home/away splits. If they are all fantastic (ex. Hamilton tomorrow) then that is great. He hits really well at home and at night. Then I look at the pitcher. I check the same splits and see that Blackburn allows lefties to hit .310 against him, he sucks on the road, he can’t pitch at night and he has been terrible his last four starts. Mix that in with the fact I think Hamilton is starting a major hot streak I think I’m set up for a good chance at getting a hit tomorrow. It’s true Blackburn could pitch a gem or Hamilton could have a bad day but these are good odds and it seems to be working for me. I hope this helps some other players as well.

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