Carlos Ghosn, chairman and CEO of Nissan, speaks next to a prototype of the autonomous driving Nissan Leaf at Renault-Nissan Silicon Valley in Sunnyvale, Calif., Thursday, Jan. 7, 2016. The Renault-Nissan Alliance is entering the race to build autonomous cars with a plan to introduce 10 models capable of temporarily relieving humans of their driving duties on highways and city streets. (AP Photo/Terry Chea) less

Carlos Ghosn, chairman and CEO of Nissan, speaks next to a prototype of the autonomous driving Nissan Leaf at Renault-Nissan Silicon Valley in Sunnyvale, Calif., Thursday, Jan. 7, 2016. The Renault-Nissan ... more

Photo: Terry Chea, STF

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An autonomous driving vehicle Mercedes F 015 appears on stage during an event of the Daimler group on the eve of the Frankfurt Auto Show IAA in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, Sept. 14, 2015. (AP Photo/Michael Probst) less

An autonomous driving vehicle Mercedes F 015 appears on stage during an event of the Daimler group on the eve of the Frankfurt Auto Show IAA in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, Sept. 14, 2015. (AP Photo/Michael ... more

Photo: Michael Probst, STF

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The driverless Snuber car at Seoul National University in South Korea. Such cars may hasten a shift from consumers having their own vehicles.

The driverless Snuber car at Seoul National University in South Korea. Such cars may hasten a shift from consumers having their own vehicles.

Photo: Lee Jin-man, STF

Few boom cycles are left for the oil industry

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Ask almost anyone in the oil business, and they will say a bust is always followed by another boom. But what if the industry has only one big cycle left?

A world that does not rely on oil for transportation was considered science fiction, something only possible if we found the mythical dilithium crystals that power Star Trek's Enterprise. But an amalgamation of new technologies could dramatically reduce demand for oil, which means a large number of Houston energy companies will eventually need new business plans.

For the last 20 years, per capita oil use has dropped in developed countries as fuel efficiency and public transportation use have grown.

In the U.S., fewer driver's licenses and lower rates of automobile ownerships are two reasons for lower demand. Millennials and senior citizens are less likely to have driver's licenses or own cars, relying instead on transportation networks like Uber and Lyft, or car-sharing services such as ZipCar and Car2Go.

Mobile Internet technology has made this more painless, and city dwellers save substantial sums on car payments, insurance, parking and taxes. Lower rates of car ownership lead to less oil consumption, as the number of discretionary trips decreases.

Cars themselves are also changing, with many automakers promising autonomous vehicles by 2020. State laws will likely require someone in the driver's seat in the beginning, but it won't be long before empty cars are driving down city streets.

Combine autonomous cars with transportation networks, and car ownership is even less appealing. If you can push a button on a phone and a car will pull up within minutes and deliver you to your destination at a low cost, why own one? That's why General Motors and Saudi Arabia's Kingdom Holdings have invested $747 million in Lyft to develop purpose-built autonomous Internet-connected taxis.

For short trips, there's also no reason why these vehicles should burn gasoline.

Today, the average price for a gallon of gasoline is $1.91, but to travel the same distance in an electric vehicle costs only $1.16, according to the Department of Energy. Liquid-fueled vehicles only remain cost-effective because lithium ion batteries are expensive, but that price advantage is disappearing.

Chevrolet's 2017 Bolt is electric, carries five passengers, travels 200 miles per charge and costs $30,000 with a federal tax credit, which is under the average American car price of $34,000.

Industry analysts predict lithium battery costs will come down 50 percent over the next five years as large-scale production begins at places like Tesla's Gigafactory in Nevada. Electric cars could be more economical than gasoline-powered cars by 2022.

When transportation networks offer a fleet of autonomous electric cars for daily commuting and errand-running, most Americans will not need to own cars and can use in-expensive rental cars for long hauls. Two-car families will only need one.

Widespread adoption of this technology could take place between 2022 and 2030, and that's without governments imposing rules designed to reduce carbon emissions. A tax here or a tax credit there could accelerate adoption.

When it comes to heavy commercial vehicles, such as trucks and buses, electric motors do not work as well, but fleets are already switching to natural gas. Since natural gas also is used to generate electricity, that's the fossil fuel sector that stands to benefit.

OPEC leaders also recognize the transition, and the only way to slow it down is to keep oil prices low. Saudi Arabia has accelerated oil production to make sure it is not left with stranded assets when the market shifts. It's not American shale drillers that OPEC fears - it's electric cars.

Some oil companies are getting ready for electric cars. Royal Dutch Shell is completing a merger with BG Group that will make its primary product natural gas, which will be used to generate electricity. Norway's Statoil has a similar strategic plan.

The world will always need oil for some things, but petroleum's days as the world's primary transportation fuel are fading.

Oil's latest boom-bust cycle arguably began in 2005 when rising demand spurred investment and innovation, such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Oil prices peaked in June 2014 and capitulated in 2016.

If the next oil cycle begins in 2017, when inventories empty and prices rise again, the peak will come in the early 2020s, just as autonomous and electric vehicles scale up. Oil's next price spike will be an act of hari-kari as consumers race to cheaper, cleaner alternatives.

Unlike vinyl records, oil has few loyalists. Most consumers don't like burning gasoline, and young people are enthusiastic about adopting alternatives.

Another boom-bust cycle really is coming for the oil industry because the alternatives are not quite ready yet. But smart companies will recognize this as the last hurrah.