Germany now expects 1.5 million refugees in 2015

Germany authorities expect as many as 1.5 million refugees to arrive in the country this year, or nearly double the last official estimate, Bild newspaper reported.

Citing a classified government report, the newspaper said officials are concerned that Germany’s infrastructure for dealing with the refugees could collapse, as many communities have already reached their limits. The government in Berlin didn’t immediately comment on the report.

If accurate, the news will further inflame Germany’s increasingly emotional debate over the influx of refugees from Syria and other troubled countries in the region.

Angela Merkel’s open-door policy toward asylum seekers initially won praise from many in Germany and coincided with an outpouring of charity. But with nearly 300,000 refugees arriving in the past month alone, the national mood has shifted and a majority of Germans now say they are “scared” by the huge numbers of asylum seekers coming across the border.

In recent days, as many as 10,000 a day have arrived, despite the reintroduction of border controls with Germany’s neighbors. Officials now worry that this pace could continue through the end of the year, according to Bild.

As many as 920,000 refugees are expected between October and December alone, the report says. Factoring in family members — typically four to eight relatives join every asylum recipient — the total could reach more than 7 million. Though the family contingent would arrive much later, such forecasts are unnerving many politicians and sparking loud calls for tougher controls.

The estimate of 1.5 million refugees cited by Bild compares to a forecast of 800,000 issued by the interior ministry in August, the last official pronouncement on the issue. Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel subsequently put the number at 1 million but other officials challenged the reliability of the figure.

Privately, government officials concede they have no idea how many people will come. Refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey are overflowing and aid there, including rations, has been cut back due to the overcapacity. In years past, the number of refugees traveling to Europe has increased in the fall as those fleeing seek to leave before winter sets in.

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Alan Ritchie

Only 1.5 million ??? That is before the latest Putin intervention in Syria impacts on refugee flows!

Posted on 10/5/15 | 12:38 PM CEST

D X

This is a catastrophe. Germany will bitterly regret. It is impossible to integrate people in this scale. There will be millions of misfits and millions of new xenophobic people. This problem will last generations. The future of Germany is compromised.

On the basis of the preliminary forecast of 920,000 refugees, some “7.36 million people” could therefore have the right to move to Germany due to family ties.

Posted on 10/5/15 | 2:09 PM CEST

JP

Germany with a low birth rate and ageing population will tremendously benefit from immigration in the long run even if integration is tough.

Posted on 10/5/15 | 2:13 PM CEST

Alan Ritchie

@regisrb
Nope – not just move to Germany but by dint of the right to freedom of movement they will also be able to move anywhere within the EU

Posted on 10/5/15 | 2:31 PM CEST

Kristian

Oh yes Europe was hoping to get natural gas and now they end up with refugees instead and it’s pumping, pumping, pumping … until Europe learn to be more responsible and engaged in their own backyard. In the end Europe will get a huge political shift to the right and may even fall apart over blaming each other and isn’t that what Putin wont? A weak dis-unified Europe is much easier to deal with – Congratulations !

Posted on 10/5/15 | 2:38 PM CEST

tiddle

Isn’t that the obvious I-told-you-so that so many have warned Merkel and the Germans about? In hindsight, Cameron looks like a genius with his much more arms-length measured approach. Now, Germany won’t be condemning Hungary too loudly now since Hungary is simply doing its proper job of throttling the influx. In the rush to claim the mantel of the great humanitarian there is, the Germans have lost their mind. And they say 1.5m? Wait until they get those coming from all the refugee camps, and they won’t be sorry soon enough.

Posted on 10/5/15 | 2:39 PM CEST

Holger Schnepf

Even the migrant-friendly “DER SPIEGEL” admitted, every refugee will likely bring in between 4 and 8 additional family members later on. In recent decades in Germany, about 80% of all people seeking Asylum were allowed to stay, despite only ~2% got asylum, the rest were allowed to stay under dubious explanations.

Now we do some math. If they really make an effort, maybe 50% are retreated. That means 750,000 just this year, multiplied with 4-8 = 3-6 MILLION refugees from this year alone. If you take the normal 80% allowed to stay – which is highly probable – and each one takes in 8 family members, which seems like a reasonable average, we get 10 Million immigrants alone from the 2015 influx.

10 Million. That’s the number. Just 2015, with all family renunions. And you do think they will all stay in Germany? This is a problem for ALL of Europe. The rest of the EU HAS to force Merkel to STOP this madness NOW, before it is too late! There no time to lose!

Posted on 10/5/15 | 10:39 PM CEST

Simona

When I read comments about immigrants in German newspapers, I dont understand why Merkel is so calm. Doesnt she see that the influx does not stop and people in her country have started to be angry?

Posted on 10/6/15 | 4:02 PM CEST

Milton38

Two people will be inextricably linked with the decline of Germany as nation of music, poetry and quality products.
Winterkorn and Merkel!
Winterkorn has as MD of the company to bear responsibility for the cheating that was done.
Merkel for destroying a culture built over a thousand years; a culture that in a musical sense is irreplaceable. No more Hölderlin, no more Kant, no more Bach.
Instead we will have a fanatic, screaming Imam exhorting his followers to go out and kill the heathens that gave them refuge.
Vale Europa!