tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post7244497480734021413..comments2017-05-27T01:52:26.877-07:00Comments on Joe Blogs: Pitcher v. PitcherJoe Posnanskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14405637102877937924noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-90419496465571783872013-06-09T07:41:38.193-07:002013-06-09T07:41:38.193-07:00We&#39;ve long been inspired by urban art and have...We&#39;ve long been inspired by <a href="http://http://newartonline.co.uk/" rel="nofollow">urban art</a> and have finally created a collection that pays homage to this secret addiction of ours!Jaly Canhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14208505069015760196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-22865341877648376372013-03-31T07:50:38.348-07:002013-03-31T07:50:38.348-07:00This is way overstated. Were pitchers marginally b...This is way overstated. Were pitchers marginally better then? Yes, but only marginally. In 1955 pitchers OPS&#39;d .444, an OPS+ of 23. They struck out 23.9% of the time compared to 10.4% for position players. They had about 31% of the sacrifice bunts in 7% of the plate appearances. <br /><br /><br /><a href="http://presswire.com" rel="nofollow">Presswire</a>Stephan Whitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14055400903924385698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-21344814140359954532013-01-07T15:05:07.972-08:002013-01-07T15:05:07.972-08:00Wow, five days later and I&#39;m still scratching ...Wow, five days later and I&#39;m still scratching this itch? My work must be boring....<br /><br />First, Kevin Brown was one heckuva pitcher during that stretch. Strange to think of it, but he was. <br /><br />Second, I won&#39;t be heard to disparage Sandy Koufax at all, but the supremacy of his peak seems to me one of those things everyone &quot;knows&quot; more than something anyone&#39;s actually shown. Five year peaks, as measured by ERA+.<br /><br />Pitcher A: 243, 291, 188, 202, 211<br />Pitcher B: 143, 159, 186, 160, 190<br />Pitcher C: 135, 184, 181, 188, 195<br />Pitcher D: 130, 157, 140, 159, 148<br /><br />Okay, you can tell Pitcher A is Pedro, and you&#39;d probably guess that Pitcher D, the worst of the remainder, is Schilling. But are you really sure which one&#39;s Koufax and which is Randy Johnson? And if I added Mattie and Seaver and Rube Waddell&#39;s peaks, do you really think you&#39;d be able to spot Sandy out of the pack?<br /><br />Or take strikeouts:<br /><br />Pitcher A: 216, 306, 223, 382, 317<br />Pitcher B: 302, 249, 287, 196, 232<br />Pitcher C: 319, 300, 152, 168, 293<br />Pitcher D: 305, 251, 313, 284, 163<br /><br />Are you really sure you can tell Sandy from Curt from Pedro from Rube? You might, if the number 382 jumps out, but it seems to me really hard to make the case that Koufax&#39;s peak was markedly better than everyone else&#39;s. Rather, it seems to me that he&#39;s merely one of the greatest pitchers of all time whose career ended abruptly just as he was pitching at his best. (I fear the irony tags may not be visible around that &quot;merely&quot; there.) Hank Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09676153908722232601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-53370414971472946492013-01-03T13:24:13.346-08:002013-01-03T13:24:13.346-08:00@Rob Smith
I like that we get to just declare guy...@Rob Smith<br /><br />I like that we get to just declare guys dirty due to allegations or having their name show up in a report. No hard evidence needed. Only accusations.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05022623160699913156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-14067603248711431452013-01-02T17:32:45.084-08:002013-01-02T17:32:45.084-08:00Sure, I&#39;ll take the bait and plays devil&#39;s...Sure, I&#39;ll take the bait and plays devil&#39;s advocate . . .<br /><br />Pitcher C: 12 seasons, 162-99 win-loss, 0 saves, 1960 strikeouts in 2241 innings, 3.00 ERA against league average of 4.17 (139 ERA+), 1.166 WHIP. Two top-3 Cy Young finishes (and 5 top-6), 2 ERA titles, 2 WHIP titles, 1 K/BB title, 1 ShO title, 6-time All-Star, pitched for one WS winner and one WS loser, no-hitter in 1997.<br /><br />The strikeouts aren&#39;t there, but neither are all the gopher balls: it&#39;s Kevin Brown from ages 27-38 (1992-2003).<br /><br />All this is more proof that Koufax&#39;s overall career isn&#39;t what made him so great -- it&#39;s his phenomenal 5-year peak.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01984245109020610620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-15400771514131671742013-01-02T15:25:42.155-08:002013-01-02T15:25:42.155-08:00Hah. About four years ago I did what I thoroughly...Hah. About four years ago I did what I thoroughly acknowledge was a bad attempt to impersonate Joe Posnanski, in an email to a group of baseball fans (full disclosure: said fans are Red Sox fans who I would guess 90% hate Curt Schilling). Relevant portion is below: <br /><br />Excerpted below are the lines on two pitchers&#39; careers, although one of them is obviously doctored a bit. Pitcher A is an otherwise real career that has been altered in a material way. Pitcher B is an entirely real guy, warts (such as they are) and all:<br /><br />Pitcher A: 11 seasons, 164-94 win-loss, 9 saves, 2,316 strikeouts in 2,272 2/3 innings. 3.45 ERA versus league average of 4.60 (133 ERA+). 1.117 WHIP.<br />Pitcher B: 12 seasons, 165-87 win-loss, 9 saves, 2,396 strikeouts in 2,324 1/3 innings. 2.76 ERA versus league average of 3.62 (131 ERA+). 1.106 WHIP. <br /><br />Pitcher A&#39;s line is not a real-life line, so it doesn&#39;t appear in Pitcher B&#39;s most-similar comparables on baseball-reference, but their similarity score is 885, which would make Pitcher A tied for second-most-similar to Pitcher B. That&#39;s pretty low for most-comparable scores, which highlights really how incomparable Pitcher B was. <br /><br />Pitcher B won three Cy Young awards (and got votes another time) and an MVP; Pitcher A never won the Cy but was runner-up three times (and got votes another time). (The closest he came to MVP was 10th.) Each of Pitcher A and Pitcher B had three 20-win seasons. Each made the All-Star team six times and played on teams that won three World Series. <br /><br />Pitcher A is Curt Schilling from the age of 30 on.<br /><br />Pitcher B is Sandy Koufax. Hank Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09676153908722232601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-91176079267318163062013-01-02T13:18:45.256-08:002013-01-02T13:18:45.256-08:00But of course, Jack Morris did face pitchers in hi...But of course, Jack Morris did face pitchers in his career, it is just that we have to deal with a very small sample size:<br /><br />Against Tom Glavine: 0 for 2 with a walk<br /><br />So his numbers are .000/.333/.000 if I calculated the slashes correctly.brhalbleibhttp://openid.aol.com/brhalbleibnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-36562815323225556572013-01-02T09:55:41.079-08:002013-01-02T09:55:41.079-08:00Only one of Schilling&#39;s years that would count...Only one of Schilling&#39;s years that would count in his WAR7 was with Boston. 3 were with Arizona and 3 were with Philadelphia (including 1992). He also struck out 300 batters twice in Philly and threw almost 270 innings of .665 Opponent OPS ball in 1998. He didn&#39;t just suddenly get good right in time for the Mitchell Report.Badfingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10279498359220002843noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-3353070252696114342013-01-02T09:18:33.916-08:002013-01-02T09:18:33.916-08:00Talent. The same thing that made him the best pitc...Talent. The same thing that made him the best pitcher in 1993, and allowed him to shut out the Blue Jays 2-0 in a must-win game of the World Series, one of the best hitting teams in recent memory.yoyodynehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08061273602845442703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-49735209866599193812013-01-02T09:17:33.818-08:002013-01-02T09:17:33.818-08:00Carlton gave up 5 HRs to pitchers but hit 13 himse...Carlton gave up 5 HRs to pitchers but hit 13 himself, for a net +8. That&#39;d be a fun stat to run for all those guys!<br /><br />.201/223/259 for Lefty at the plate. 4 years his SLG was .317 or better, heck, that seems better than some leadoff guys I watched this year...yoyodynehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08061273602845442703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-19118280765676976862013-01-01T12:59:39.697-08:002013-01-01T12:59:39.697-08:00Yes. That was fun.Yes. That was fun.Mark Swienckihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14368762393268662128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-12551063685834367592012-12-31T16:34:21.948-08:002012-12-31T16:34:21.948-08:00Joe, you sling the phrase &quot;in the top 25&quot...Joe, you sling the phrase &quot;in the top 25&quot; or &quot;top 50&quot; or &quot;top 100&quot; around far too easily! One of these days you should probably sit down and try to determine the top 25, 50 or 100 at each position and let&#39;s see if you still determine that weak candidates like Curt Schilling are still HOF worthy. I hope PHIL starts writing baseball articles can so I can stop reading your drivel.Winds of Changehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11263938260844932635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-28387071024903657952012-12-31T09:48:11.031-08:002012-12-31T09:48:11.031-08:00This is a good question. I think in general, if t...This is a good question. I think in general, if two pitchers have similar stats but one has 3000 Ks and the other only 2000, then sabermetrics determines the one with higher K rate to be the better pitcher. It&#39;s because Ks are outs virtually 100% of the time, but non-Ks can be outs or hits or errors or walks or HBPs. With the two pitchers I described, the lower K guy is not &quot;truly&quot; as good a pitcher because he got more outs on balls in play because of luck or good fielders or being in a pitcher&#39;s park and things like that. Thus, advanced stats are not always about what actually happened, it&#39;s about what would have happened once everything was evened out by park and fielding and with BABIP. In the case of Schilling vs. Brown, Schilling had 700+ more Ks, and as might be expected, he had a lower WHIP (1.137 vs. 1.222). So how did they end up with similar ERA+? It looks like the difference might be HRs allowed. Brown allowed 208, Schilling 347. Some of that might be due to park effect, but that&#39;s how their numbers even out. Regardless, Schilling&#39;s fielding independent pitching (FIP) is lower than Brown&#39;s (3.23 vs 3.33). This edge, albeit small, favors Schilling, and is probably mostly due to Schilling&#39;s higher strikeout rate.<br />The importance of strikeouts, thus, is in determining this so-called &quot;true&quot; value, which is somewhat different than what actually happened on the field. Mark Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05198847893689528885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-25978635192167892922012-12-31T07:58:59.176-08:002012-12-31T07:58:59.176-08:00The same thing that made Kevin Brown pitch so good...The same thing that made Kevin Brown pitch so good suddenly in 1996?Mark Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05198847893689528885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-67994091341343309332012-12-30T10:14:34.009-08:002012-12-30T10:14:34.009-08:00In my opinion this really isn&#39;t a complete ana...In my opinion this really isn&#39;t a complete analysis until you compare to #9 hitters in the AL. It&#39;s not fair to simply dismiss 1/9 of the order for NL pitchers but make no allowance for AL pitchers. If you wanted a fair, apples to apples comparison, you&#39;d have to compare strikeout totals of 1-8 batters in the NL to strikeout totals of 1-8 batters in the AL. Nemohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13489054961194090842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-26823281617260675782012-12-30T05:55:28.704-08:002012-12-30T05:55:28.704-08:00And let&#39;s also not forget that George Mitchell...And let&#39;s also not forget that George Mitchell was an employee of the Boston Red Sox, so conveniently no Beaneaters appeared on his special list. Shilling&#39;s career trajectory indicates a late bloomer (with more of his career WAR value later: over 40% still remaining after his age 34 season), while Brown&#39;s is more typical (less than 25% after age 34). That&#39;s not proof, of course (viz. Dazzy Vance and Randy Johnson), but it should make circumspect voters wary.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01984245109020610620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-50902825989089610382012-12-29T19:52:13.838-08:002012-12-29T19:52:13.838-08:00Let&#39;s not forget that Kevin Brown appeared on ...Let&#39;s not forget that Kevin Brown appeared on the Mitchell Report and Kirk Radomski alleged that he purchased PEDs from him. Joe consistently &quot;forgets&quot; to mention this little tidbit since he&#39;s a steroid apologist. So, it&#39;s not always about the numbers these days. The guy was dirty. That&#39;s a big reason why he didn&#39;t get HOF love from the voters.Rob Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09317159287685427125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-89589377110234987602012-12-29T19:46:25.347-08:002012-12-29T19:46:25.347-08:00I feel honored that Joe used my previous comment a...I feel honored that Joe used my previous comment about David Wells being a better HOF candidate than Jack Morris. Better career, better postseason career. How many of you are just shouting out &quot;David Wells is an obvious HOFer&quot;? Anybody? Bueller? Well, why in the hell is Jack Morris getting so much love when he&#39;s not even as good as David friggin Wells?? What a joke.Rob Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09317159287685427125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-41532655149786419002012-12-29T19:42:51.303-08:002012-12-29T19:42:51.303-08:00And why did he suddenly start pitching better in h...And why did he suddenly start pitching better in his mid 30s? Think, think, think. Rob Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09317159287685427125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-1555704085174910622012-12-29T19:40:40.566-08:002012-12-29T19:40:40.566-08:00Ted Lyons, Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina along with al...Ted Lyons, Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina along with all those dead ball era pitchers (and some that I&#39;d have to look up to see what era they even played in) are way out of bounds in any Top 25 list. Rob Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09317159287685427125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-54284774748742774312012-12-29T19:38:36.845-08:002012-12-29T19:38:36.845-08:00No, pitchers can&#39;t hit because hitting is not ...No, pitchers can&#39;t hit because hitting is not a requirement of the job. A left fielder or a first baseman can be wonderful fielders and base runners, but if they can&#39;t hit, they don&#39;t make it to the bigs. Not so with pitchers. Rob Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09317159287685427125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-76999689217251892442012-12-29T18:46:25.886-08:002012-12-29T18:46:25.886-08:00It was nagging at me, so today I took my top 200 o...It was nagging at me, so today I took my top 200 or so and found their five-year peaks. Koufax is tied for #9 if sorted by winning percentage of &quot;neutral&quot; win-loss records:<br /><br />Maddux, Greg 1994-1998 98-21 .824<br />Martinez, Pedro 1996-2000 100-25 .800<br />Johnson, Randy 1998-2002 108-30 .783<br />Johnson, Walter 1911-1915 165-47 .778<br />Grove, Lefty 1928-1932 122-39 .758<br />Brown, Kevin 1996-2000 93-30 .756<br />Santana, Johan 2004-2008 92-33 .736<br />Clemens, Roger 1986-1990 103-39 .725<br />Newhouser, Hal 1944-1948 126-48 .724<br />Koufax, Sandy 1962-1966 105-40 .724<br /><br />I gotta say, Kevin Brown&#39;s looking better than Curt Schilling with every passing moment. . . .Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01984245109020610620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-4977922322372278292012-12-29T13:02:57.496-08:002012-12-29T13:02:57.496-08:00Who cares?Who cares?clashfanhttp://clashfan.livejournal.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-58002036948684160442012-12-29T11:14:17.310-08:002012-12-29T11:14:17.310-08:00For example I just looked up rick reuschel&#39;s n...For example I just looked up rick reuschel&#39;s numbers. Except for one year when he was in the AL, those numbers are basically NL numbers. So I went and took out the total number of batters he faced in the AL. Pitchers accounted for 7.2% of the batters faced while he was in the NL.mdwannabehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11280262226666943695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-67237145877721342922012-12-29T11:13:14.198-08:002012-12-29T11:13:14.198-08:00It is not so much that pitchers &quot;sucked&quot;...It is not so much that pitchers &quot;sucked&quot; as hitters. Rather pitchers, who usually were good hitters growing up, don&#39;t practice hitting as much as everyday players. So much of hitting is timing and batting every fifth day and not getting much work in the cages results in poor timing. LargeBillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13231452147187641675noreply@blogger.com