Analysis: How the growing Trump scandal could affect his presidency

Attorney Michael Cohen's simultaneous relationship with Donald Trump and several blue chip companies that paid him for insight into the new president strikes legal experts as unusual and has triggered questions about client confidentiality. (May 11)
AP

President Trump waves as he walks to the Oval Office after delivering remarks on lowering drug prices during an event in the White House Rose Garden on Friday.(Photo: SHAWN THEW, EPA-EFE)

The Whitewater scandal dogged Bill Clinton for most of his presidency, as an investigation into an Arkansas real estate deal spun off into inquiries into the suicide of a White House lawyer, the firings at the White House Travel Office — and finally, Clinton's affair with intern Monica Lewinsky.

And now President Trump, too, finds himself in the midst of a series of controversies cascading like dominoes through the headlines.

What started as an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election has morphed into an ever-expanding galaxy of scandals involving an adult-film star, influence peddling and — most recently — what the president knew about allegations of sexual abuse by the New York attorney general.

Just this past week, Trump has seen revelations that his personal attorney used his position to make more than $1 million from corporate clients trying to influence the president — and that he had funneled that money through the same account he used to pay hush money to an adult-film star alleging she had a sexual encounter with Trump.

"Yes, this has been a terrible week for him, but because it’s Trump, terrible is a relative word," said Lanny Davis, a former Clinton lawyer who now specializes in political crisis management.

Unlike previous scandals, Trump faces a different political and media environment than past presidents — differences that could either help him to weather the storm or face a crippled presidency. The cumulative effect of Trump's scandals has put him on the defensive. He has publicly decried the Russia investigation as a "witch hunt" but has been more circumspect in dealing with the allegations he paid hush money to an adult-film star.

After that actress, Stormy Daniels, gave an interview to 60 Minutes last month, Trump went 11 days without addressing the allegation, largely avoiding press encounters where it might come up.

In the short term, the headlines are distracting from the issues that Trump would prefer to talk about — including tax cuts, a recovering economy and his historic opening to North Korea. But the sheer number of scandals can have an impact on a president's approval rating, his relationship with Congress and how he governs.

University of Houston professor Brandon Rottinghaus has studied scandals from Nixon to George W. Bush and found patterns in the ways presidents respond to them.

•They give more speeches. After a mini-hiatus following the defeat of Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore last December, Trump has returned to holding monthly campaign rallies, mostly in states he won in 2016. In a rally last week, he made no mention of the controversies but instead attacked Democrats running for Congress. "Give me some reinforcements, please," he told 7,000 people in Elkhart, Ind.

•They pick fewer fights with Congress. After successfully getting a tax-cut package passed last December, Trump's legislative agenda largely has stalled. His top priorities — infrastructure and immigration — appear unlikely to pass before the midterm elections in November.

•They take fewer unilateral executive actions. After signing 101 executive orders and presidential memoranda in 2017, Trump has had just 26 appear in the Federal Register this year as of Friday.

Usually, presidents face a point where they "come clean" — or at least take some action to try to mitigate a scandal.

Trump hasn't done that.

His defiant response to scandals is informed by his decades as a target of New York tabloid media: When hit with an accusation, deny it — and then hit back harder against the accuser. And never apologize.

Trump has been able to stand his ground in part because the political situation hasn't changed much since he was elected: The GOP remains in control of Congress, and his support among his political base hasn't wavered.

"The ultimate end of a scandal is impeachment, and if the president's not afraid of that, there's no sanction that can hold him accountable," Rottinghaus said.

But also, he said, the growing complexity of the scandals can work to the president's advantage as voters begin to be desensitized and lose the plot. To his supporters, the media coverage could look like "piling on."

In Clinton's case, that swarm of scandal hurt his approval ratings and led to the "Clinton fatigue" that ultimately hurt Vice President Al Gore's 2000 election prospects.

But it also led to a public backlash against the never-ending cycle of investigations by independent counsel Kenneth Starr, whose mandate grew to include matters that had little or nothing to do with the real estate deal.

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Adult film actress Stormy Daniels is rushed into an adult venue, Blush, by a bodyguard as she arrives to perform in her show in downtown Pittsburgh on May 2, 2018. President Trump's new lawyer Rudy Giuliani said that Trump repaid his personal attorney Michael Cohen for a $130,000 payment to Daniels, directly contradicting the president's past statements.
STEPHANIE STRASBURG/PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE VIA AP

This image released by ABC shows adult film actress Stormy Daniels, left, with her attorney Michael Avenatti during an appearance on the daytime talk show "The View," on April 17, 2018, in New York.
HEIDI GUTMAN, ABC VIA AP

Daniels released a composite sketch on April 17, 2018, of the man she says threatened her in a Las Vegas parking lot to stay quiet about her past sexual tryst with President Donald Trump. Avenatti says they are offering $100,000 for information leading to the man's identification.
HEIDI GUTMAN, ABC VIA AP

Adult-film actress Stephanie Clifford, also known as Stormy Daniels speaks outside US Federal Court with her lawyer Michael Avenatti (R) in Lower Manhattan, New York on April 16, 2018.
Stormy Daniels, the porn star who claims to have had a consensual sexual encounter with Donald Trump a decade ago, said April 17, 2018 that she is pursuing legal action against the president because she is "done being bullied.""I'm tired of being threatened, intimidating me, and trying to say that you'll ruin my life and take all my money and my house," Daniels said on ABC's "The View.""I'm done being bullied," Daniels said of legal threats from Trump's lawyer Michael Cohen, who is now embroiled in his own legal troubles."I'm done," Daniels said.
EDUARDO MUNOZ ALVAREZ, AFP/GETTY IMAGES

In this courtroom sketch, Joanna Hendon, right, one of President Donald Trump's lawyers, speaks as the president's personal attorney Michael Cohen, left, sits next to one of his own attorneys Todd Harrison, center, with porn star Stormy Daniels visible in the audience between Cohen and Harrison, during a federal court hearing in New York, April 16, 2018. Attorneys for Cohen and Trump tried to persuade U.S. District Judge Kimba Wood to delay prosecutors from examining records and electronic devices seized in the raids on the grounds that many of them are protected by attorney-client privilege.
ELIZABETH WILLIAMS VIA AP

This cover image released by Penthouse shows Stormy Daniels gracing their May-June 2018 issue, hitting newsstands on May 8. Daniels, whose legal name is Stephanie Clifford, says she had sex once with Trump in 2006 and that Trump's personal attorney, Michael Cohen, paid her $130,000 days before the 2016 election for her silence.
PENTHOUSE VIA AP

This image released by CBS News shows Stormy Daniels, left, during an interview with Anderson Cooper which will air on March 25, 2018, on "60 Minutes." Stephanie Clifford, who uses the stage name Stormy Daniels, claims to have had an affair with President Trump and has filed a suit against him in an attempt to nullify a nondisclosure deal with Trump attorney Michael Cohen days before Trump's 2016 presidential victory.
CBS News/60 Minutes via AP

In this image from video, Michael Avenatti, attorney and spokesperson for adult film star Stormy Daniels, listens to a reporters' question during an interview at The Associated Press, March 21, 2018, in New York.
Joe Frederick, AP

A sign for Ultra Gentlemen's Club across the street from Trump International Golf Club reads 'Stormy Daniels Making America Horny Again, April 13-14' is seen from President Trump's Motorcade in West Palm Beach, Fla. on Feb. 18, 2018, as it departs back to Mar-a-Lago.
Andrew Harnik, AP

Michael Cohen, an attorney for Donald Trump, arrives in Trump Tower in New York on Dec. 16, 2016. Stormy Daniels, the porn star whom President Donald Trump's personal attorney acknowledged paying $130,000 just before Election Day, believes she is now free to discuss her alleged sexual encounter with Trump, her manager xtold The Associated Press Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2018. Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, believes that Cohen invalidated a non-disclosure agreement after two news stories: One, in which Cohen told The New York Times that he made the six-figure payment with his personal funds, and another in the Daily Beast, which reported that Cohen was shopping a book proposal that would touch on Daniels' story, said the manager, Gina Rodriguez.
Richard Drew, AP

Sen. Jim Dabakis, D-Salt Lake City, speaks on the Senate floor at the Utah State Capitol, in Salt Lake City on Jan. 21, 2018. Utah Democrats are pushing back on a proposal to rename a scenic highway after President Donald Trump, with one saying he'd suggest naming a frontage road after porn star Stormy Daniels. Dabakis tweeted that he'd suggest an amendment naming a frontage road after Daniels, who alleges she had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006.
Rick Bowmer, AP

As a result, Congress did not reauthorize the independent counsel statute in 1999, putting the Justice Department back in charge of appointing and supervising investigations into the president.

Indeed, the latest revelations involving Trump have come not from special counsel Robert Mueller, who's investigating the Russia connections, but from career prosecutors in New York. There, the FBI raided the home and office of Trump's personal attorney.

One tactic the White House has used is to insulate the president's past personal behavior from the presidency itself, setting up an outside team of lawyers to deal with it.

At least 27 times over the past two weeks, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders and her deputies have referred questions about the controversies to the lawyers.

"As you know, due to the complications of the different components of this investigation, I would refer you to the president's outside counsel to address those concerns," Sanders said last week.

Davis, the former Clinton attorney who now specializes in crisis management for a number of political clients, said that's probably a smart strategy. But eventually, Trump needs to take some decisive action.

"Usually in crisis management, you have a terrible week, and your first rule is to get it all over with," he said. "In the case of Trump, he seems to not care.

"The reason why his crisis management strategy is not working is because his team cannot trust that he's able to focus on reality and that he's telling them the truth."

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Michael Cohen, longtime personal lawyer and confidante for President Donald Trump, leaves Federal Court after his hearing at the United States District Court Southern District of New York, April 16, 2018, in New York. Officials with the FBI, armed with a search warrant, raided Cohen's office and two private residences last week.
YANA PASKOVA, GETTY IMAGES

Adult-film actress Stephanie Clifford, also known as Stormy Daniels speaks outside US Federal Court with her lawyer Michael Avenatti (R) in Lower Manhattan, New York on April 16, 2018.
Stormy Daniels, the porn star who claims to have had a consensual sexual encounter with Donald Trump a decade ago, said April 17, 2018 that she is pursuing legal action against the president because she is "done being bullied.""I'm tired of being threatened, intimidating me, and trying to say that you'll ruin my life and take all my money and my house," Daniels said on ABC's "The View.""I'm done being bullied," Daniels said of legal threats from Trump's lawyer Michael Cohen, who is now embroiled in his own legal troubles."I'm done," Daniels said.
EDUARDO MUNOZ ALVAREZ, AFP/GETTY IMAGES

In this courtroom sketch, Joanna Hendon, right, one of President Donald Trump's lawyers, speaks as the president's personal attorney Michael Cohen, left, sits next to one of his own attorneys Todd Harrison, center, with porn star Stormy Daniels visible in the audience between Cohen and Harrison, during a federal court hearing in New York, April 16, 2018. Attorneys for Cohen and Trump tried to persuade U.S. District Judge Kimba Wood to delay prosecutors from examining records and electronic devices seized in the raids on the grounds that many of them are protected by attorney-client privilege.
ELIZABETH WILLIAMS VIA AP

(L to R) Todd Harrison and Joseph Evans, attorneys for Michael Cohen, arrive for a court proceeding regarding the search warrants served on President Donald Trump's longtime personal attorney Michael Cohen, at the United States District Court Southern District of New York, April 13, 2018 in New York. Cohen and his lawyers were asking the court to block Justice Department officials from reading documents and materials related to his relationship with President Donald Trump that they believe should be protected by attorney-client privilege. Officials with the FBI, armed with a search warrant, raided Cohen's office and two private residences earlier in the week.
DREW ANGERER, GETTY IMAGES

CBS This Morning co-anchor Gayle King, left, Stormy Daniels' attorney Michael Avenatti, CNN news anchor Don Lemon and FOX News talk show host Sean Hannity pose for a selfie at The Hollywood Reporter's annual 35 Most Powerful People in Media event at The Pool on Thursday, April 12, 2018, in New York.
In court hearings on April 16, 2018, it was revealed that the client list of presidential lawyer Michael Cohen also includes Sean Hannity, one of the president's biggest supporters.
EVAN AGOSTINI, INVISION/AP

In this Sept. 19, 2017 file photo, President Trump's personal attorney Michael Cohen appears in front of members of the media after a closed door meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee on Capitol Hill, in Washington. Federal agents carrying court-authorized search warrants have seized documents from Cohen according to a statement from Cohens attorney, Stephen Ryan. He says that the search warrants were executed by the office of the U.S. Attorney for Southern District of New York but they are in part related to special counsel Robert Muellers investigation.
Andrew Harnik, AP

The actress Stephanie Clifford, who uses the stage name Stormy Daniels, performs at the Solid Gold Fort Lauderdale strip club on March 9, 2018 in Pompano Beach, Florida. Stephanie Clifford who claims to have had an affair with President Trump has filed a suit against him in an attempt to nullify a nondisclosure deal with Trump attorney Michael Cohen days before Trump's 2016 presidential victory.
Joe Raedle, Getty Images

Michael Cohen's lawyer David Schwartz appeared on Megyn Kelly TODAY on March 29, 2018 to discuss the Stormy Daniels lawsuit against President Trump and her attorney's motion to depose Trump and Cohen. Schwartz called the case "completely frivolous."
Nathan Congleton, NBC

(L to R) Retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, President-elect Donald Trump's choice for National Security Advisor, Michael Cohen, executive vice president of the Trump Organization and special counsel to Donald Trump, and former Texas Governor Rick Perry talk with each other in the lobby at Trump Tower, December 12, 2016, in New York City. President-elect Donald Trump and his transition team were in the process of filling cabinet and other high level positions for the new administration.
Drew Angerer, Getty Images

Dan Scavino Jr., White House director of social media, tweeted that Trump's base should defeat a lawmaker in a primary, while his account featured photos of him in the Oval Office and of Trump.
Al Drago, pool/epa