Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

dclark41

I discovered PSW while reading up on the US economy and how it applies to all the poor folk of the world and to myself as a humble UK desk slave.
This year I put time into learning options trading. I upgraded (with great administrative difficulty!) my stock dealing account to deal options. Now I am an avid reader of PSW and subscribed for voyeur membership. Initially feeling out of my depth struggling to keep up with the peculiar language of options traders, I unsubscribed feeling a little under confident and uncertain if the small stake I have to invest in options could generate enough to justify my PSW subscription. Nevertheless, I've benefited considerably from the member's material. From a small number of initial trades, I've exceeded profit targets enough to consider re-subscribing in some capacity. Thanks for the knowledge and more than anything I appreciate the human angle, the humour and the ecologically sympathetic approach rarely seen in other financial media. Best wishes all - Jon

Jon

Took profit on QQQ 57 Puts, bot 40 at $0.07, sold 20 for $0.15 and 20 for $0.32. Thank, Phil

Bobhu

Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.

Kinkistyle

I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership.

TokyoLife

Phil – great calls this past week, esp. friday and monday. in the old days I would have let Prechter et al scare me into trimming my longs and going short at just the wrong time. your feel for the markets is Tiger-esque. CHK, HOV, BX, TLT and XLF are big winners for me today. My biggest up day in a long time. Thanks!

Terrapin22

I enjoy your informative materials, Phil... as it is obviously beneficial to so many "styles" of trading the markets... long term, swing or day trading the market moves.
As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult.
I have to congratulate you for your accuracy... You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls. I'm sure it was difficult and consistent work, but it did pay off... thanks from one who benefited big time !

1234Gel

Thanks for all the work you put into this site. I have looked at a few other option advisory or "mentoring" services this year, but no one offers even a fraction of the content or the level of services you provide at PSW!

Jelutuck

I read you every day. Smart. Prescient. Good advice. Righteous anger. Even made some money on your ideas. Keep it up.

Catfoodgen

Every time I read Mr. Davis' market analyses and reports about his super profitable trades I feel admiration mixed with envy for the overall brilliance of this man, intellectual and verbal, his extraordinary savvy in the exotic art of options and, last not least, his moral passion with which he writes, even if in passing, about the darker aspects of capitalism.

RussianBear

Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!

Neverworkagain

Hello Phil,
Thanks for the heads up on the comming sell off on friday, and the bs job yesterday. your our guiding light!

Microflux

Thanks Phil, for banging the table on getting short and getting to cash. Usually when this happens in the market I am freaking out but I actually made money this week thanks to you. That HOV trade was a great way to re-deploy some of my cash.

Julian

Great call on expe Phil! Went long 50 shares and sold for a nice profit! And Great call on the nkd shorts as well. I didn't use a stop that tight and was able to cover for a $400 gain. Works been keeping me pretty busy and I'm jealous of all the members who are able to check in here more often! It's almost always quite profitable! Looking forward to Vegas!

Jromeha

Phil, i wanted to thank you again for helping me protect future stock allocations at work - finally, i feel like i am owning my own destiny with stocks vs. letting the market dictate what you get – thanks again.

Nramanuja

Phil – I wanted to tell you how much of a privilege it is to learn from your every day. You are a shining beacon in the life of so many investors. You have assembled probably the best group of people in the history of financial blogging and you, yourself have done more to help investors in the last 6 months than all previous financial advisors combined.

StJeanLuc

Happy Thanksgiving Phil and to your family and associates. Also to all of the other fellow citizens of Phil's Stock World. I am particularly happy and thankful that I clicked on your article in Seeking Alpha a number of years ago. That opened the gate to Phil's Stock World and "being the house". My wallet thanks you as does my peace of mind in trading options, stocks and rarely futures. Your liberal views opened up my views—being a boot strapper (pulled myself out of a poor background) I was a CONSERVATIVE—cynical of others who weren't as driven. Now, I am much less so; you have taught me more than how to make money and manage risk. So, again I give thanks to you and the others of PSW!!

Newthugger

Phil/ I hope the next 5 year bear market will be as much fun and as profitable as this 5 year bull market. For those who survived 2008/2009, and who imbibed the wisdom of PSW, what a time it has been. Good to have you by my side. I think you are selling yourself short – you need to triple your prices :)

Winston

As a retired stockbroker from a major Canadian brokerage firm, I can tell you I would never had access to these type of trade ideas, especially the hedges.
Just closed out a July TZA 40/45 call spread today for a 271% gain in less than a month. I would have normally let that run but yesterday Phil commented to another member something to the effect that "you put down a $1 for a $5 upside, now that you are up 250% you have $2.5 in and you are hoping for a double."
Just closed out a USO July $38 put that Phil suggested yesterday for a 49% one day gain.
Thanks,
Bob

RJK

Phil: Thank You!
Scaling, Scaling, and Scaling… then patience, patience, patience I'm 2 to 1 short and even on a day the broad market is up I had my largest one day gain in years. The last 6 weeks in fact have been great. I really feel I've learned to use some tools that will enable me to deal with the turbulence ahead. Selling short calls is definitely my preferred approach. Even allowed me to play golf this afternoon while the premium melted away and shoot a career low round. I owe you man!

Lincoln

GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

lflantheman

Phil fantastic call on the markets… I owe you BIG…thanks and have a great weekend!

Kustomz

Kudos on the POT puts! I studied the charts last night and you couldn't have hit the inflection points more perfectly. Since there are often many head fakes in the charts, that was very well done. I know they can't all work this well, but that was an extra unexpected bonus yesterday.

Ocelli7

I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

Dennis

I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.

Pharmboy

I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.

Pstas

Phil,
3 for 3! Sold on initial excitement and made a double on USO, 70% on AMZN and 70% on SPY options from Friday.
Thanks and much appreciated for the suggestions.

Gingbaum

Thanks Phil for all you do. I feel like I don't read all the newsprint because when I check in with you I know I get the "real" scoop. Your service is number Uno in my book for all the knowledge and teaching. I ignored the aapl spin and am now enjoying some rewards. Every AM I get my Phil fix and throughout the day any important links. Mucho gracias. It leaves me time for my volunteer work besides the investing.

Pirateinvestor

Phil I have been telling you for a while how I feel like I am really understanding you now and thanking you. Well today may have been my most successful futures trading day since I began here and the week has been spectacular! It has just seemed so easy when you give us a range and I execute properly. Thanks once again for teaching me to fish. My portfolio gained over 10% this week which is just amazing.

Craiga620

I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….

Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

I have been reading the "free" PSW for about a year and have always liked Phil's style as it closely resembled the way I like to trade (mostly naked put options). I have been a paid subscriber for about 5 weeks and I have been learning a lot from Phil and other members. I had made some money on Phil's "free" ideas in the past and I joined because one of Phil's futures ideas paid for my subscription within the same day (NG). Phil deserved my subscription and I was eager to learn more. I just did a quick tally and within the last 5 weeks the ideas that I chose to follow from Phil generated over 25K in options profits and 12K in futures profits (some of my trades were more conservative than what Phil's had suggested). I have a lot to learn, experience and confidence to gain. Thanks again Phil and Successful Trading to all.

Verreaul

Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )

Iflantheman & Gel1

Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.

Tchayipov

I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instict which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.

Autolander

I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife. We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives. The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving…but well worth it! Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement.

David

Phil – just wanted to say a sincere thank you for teaching me how to offset, hedge, roll, and not panic. My account is up 10% in the last two weeks, and far from panic, this is becoming great fun. Thanks again,

Deano

I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.

KMisko

Phil, I wanted to thank you for all of your teaching, advice, and guidance. Because of you I don't chase, don't worry about missed chances, and play things much more selectively. Yesterday's /ES and /TF and today /CL are my first futures plays of the month. Thanks Phil. (Out of /TF and /ES yesterday with a nice gain)

Japarikh

Thanks for you guidance – Your "student" will be passing on the McMuffins and having Lobster dinners tonight!

Aquila

Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!

Gel1

Hey Phil - writing to thank you!
First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable!
I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.

I must give kudos to Phil for changing my way of thinking. I'm a gambler by nature and used to just play the indexes with 3x etf's… well I still do, but the options give far better returns than I ever dreamed of. With these wild swings I've been catching 50-100% winners in days.

Mkucstars1

Phil – I wanted to tell you how much of a privilege it is to learn from your every day. You are a shining beacon in the life of so many investors. You have assembled probably the best group of people in the history of financial blogging and you, yourself have done more to help investors in the last 6 months than all previous financial advisors combined.

StJeanLuc

@Philip Davis, Per my review you are the best options trader that I have seen. You've made money for your investors and those that subscribe to your service. Many cudos to you for a just ahead of the curve buying or selling opportunity. Yes, you've hit HRs when others were hitting singles.

153972

The legendary Phil Davis has done it again with his call to "get out of the market now" (12/05/2017). Congratulations Phil, and while I am at it, I again would like to Thank You for your advise given me in March '09, when you said "unless you believe the world is coming to an end, then get in this market with both feet"...... and what a ride that was !

1234gel

Hi Mr. Phill, I am a Venezuelan lady tormented by our politicall situation, who use to be an emerging market trader, and many other executive positins in the finance "arena" and now is trying to built a new concept and service for asset management for clients on my own, I am in the trial and learning process at the moment, I also invest for some friends and myself. I want to congratulate you , because reading you fill my days with a touch of irony (besides ,of course the spectacular market insight) that happens to give me energy, its a joy the remarks and comments even the pictures used, sometimes I just read it for the fun, I completily agree with your thouhts, though we belong to totally different cultures and enviorements and certanly realities Your readings is like a little hand helping me out to be in the market and fight for my devastated country where every single day we looe inches and yards of liberty. You shoul try to writte a book!

Mindeyes

I cannot believe the success I have had in the last 6 months because of what I have learned here! It has been truly life changing. It's like the old adage about teaching someone how to fish instead of just giving them a fish. Thank you Phil, I am forever grateful and hope I have helped someone else along the way.

Craigsa620

Phil - I celebrate today, having reached my goal for the year, trading in sync with your education and guidance, of 1 million in profit. I learned a lot, achieved much, and am profoundly grateful. To be honest, when I set the goal I thought it was daunting, as I have for many years been an investor in equities but did very little with options. Learning and doing has for me been a blast!
I reached my goal by following Phil's strategies - lots of Buy/Writes, covered calls on equities , naked put entries for income production. I did it with 2.5 mil and kept 600,000 in cash in case I got in trouble. I concentrated on stocks (many of my own choosing) that had decent dividends and wrote front month calls against (OTM) which has worked well in this market run. 25% of my gain is in dividends and premium selling, with the balance in appreciation.

Gel1

Phil – Great calls yesterday, you were in top form. As I was reading your postings, I had hindsight of what the day brought. The calls were uncanny!

Jfawcett

Phil, I meant to post over the weekend, but I was busy having fun . Last week was a very nice week for me, and I wanted to thank you for all that you do. I am pretty much back to cash and really feel like I am learning. I have out performed the $5kp by a very large margin. Thanks again for the service you provide.

Scotbraze

Oxen (directly) and Wilkinson (indirectly) are making me a great day trader! Props to Andrew for another little nugget last night: HIG. $20 Dec calls paid 6% quickly this morning. And helloooo STJ - a few days, but nice pick nonetheless - esp with early cover premium.

Dstillwe

Thanks, Phil!!! I just crushed today with it with silver (SLV) calls today, thanks to your persistent reminders of how ridiculously cheap it has become, and watching my TSLA this week $240 puts dissolve into chump change added an extra note of amusement.

Zeroxzero

AMZN ... thanks Phil; boy did they run a squeeze on everyone there ... made me sweat ... scaling helped! I think AMZN has an 85 handle tomorrow ... maybe lower.

Cap

TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!

Gel1

Nice call on the QQQ puts this morning Phil. I bought 10 at .13 this morning for fun day trade. Just closed at .95. Sweet hedge for the day!

RevTodd64

I have been trading for quite a few years and in good years made about 25%. After joining PSW, I followed closely the PSW strategy and my trading profit for this year is close to 70% to date. For fun, I like to mix in a few "Hail Mary" plays that really worked out well, but overall the simpler Buy/Write strategy, as presented by Phil so often, created the majority of the profit.

Gel1

Once again, many muchos for the SODA trade of last week. Finally out of all three legs. I didn't want to wait for expiration tomorrow and the possible peg at $70.00, following your dictum to not get greedy.

flipspiceland

I have to thank you for excelling yourself during this past week. I have spent a good few hours going over your notes and comments and there are so many gems on repairing and rolling trades that I have been beavering away on paying special attention to my major positions and analysing them using your approach on Tuesday. Being able to look at a group of trades on the same underlying (in this case AAPL) and taking a detached view by assessing the impact of the underlying reaching different price points was extremely reassuring.

Back on May 3rd, I explained how the market was confusing efficiency for a strong economy, noting that Corporations can make more money while the people starve. At the time, I noted that materials sector performance looked too weak for a proper bull market and, for the quarter, we're still in very bad shape with Petrolum down 9%, Natural Gas down 19% and Copper down 7.5% – those are not signs of a strong recovery.

Speaking of Copper (/HGZ19), yesterdsay morning's long trade idea from our PSW Report (subscribe here if you don't want to miss our trade ideas) with contracts jumping from $2.64 to $2.70 for gains of $3,000 per contract before lunch! Our options trade idea for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is slower-moving but that stock gained 1% yesterday and will really take off if there's progress with China.

Meanwhile, the indexes blasted higher as Trump tweeted out that he will be meeting with China's Xi at the G20 this weekend and, although that's kind of the point of the G20 – people are very excited about it. Also, as noted in yesterday's Morning Report, Draghi fever spread across the markets and anticipation couldn't be higher that our Fed will also signal that it's ready to cut rates, buy bonds, buy assets – whatever it takes to keep the rally going becuase what on this Earth is more important than making rich people richer?

Nonetheless, we are urging caution into the Fed Report and yesterday, in our Live Member Chat Room, we discussed a good 3-month hedge to take us, not just through today but through the summer:

Hedge/QC – Two factors in selecting a hedge is which index is ahead of the others (that's what the Big Chart is for) and which index is most likely to fail. From the Big Chart, the Dow is now back to the May high S&P close and Nas lagging a bit and RUT lagging a lot so Dow or S&P and BA may come down more and drag the Dow and others if the trade talks blow up so I still like DXD, which is a 2x Ultra-Short for the Dow so a 10% drop in the Dow (back to June lows) would be up 20% on DXD which is $27 so $27 x 1.2 = $32.40 so that's our target and now we consider out time-frame and you'll be gone for July and the next DXDs are Oct after July so now we know what to play:

Sell 10 TAP 2021 $47.50 puts for $4.40 ($4,400)

Buy 30 DXD Oct $25 calls for $2.75 ($8,250)

Sell 30 DXD Oct $32 calls for 0.80 ($2,400)

That's net $1,450 on the $21,000 spread so there's $19,550 (1,348%) upside potential against your cash outlay. You are obligated to own 1,000 shares of TAP at $47.50 ($47,500) if it goes lower but it's nice to have a hedge that's $2 ($6,000) in the money to start and TAP at $54 has a 12% cushion before the puts kick in.

We like Molson Coors (TAP) because of a partnership they have with Hexo (HEXO) to make THC-infused beer. We think HEXO is too risky but TAP is a great bargain stock we wouldn't mind owning and selling the 2021 $47.50 puts pays us $4.40 now in exchange for a promise to buy TAP for net $43.10 between now and Jan, 2021. The stock is at $54.11 now so that's $11 (20%) below the current price – that's our worst case.

We like to use short puts to offset the cost of our hedges as we're getting paid to buy stocks we'd like to own at a discount (see "How to Buy a Stocks for a 15-20% Discount"). It's a very effective strategy because, if the market goes down enough for TAP to drop 20%, the hedge is likely to pay us $19,550 – covering 40% of the cost of the TAP stock we'd be assigned. Of course, the money is to hedge our WHOLE porfolio, not just the one stock so it's important to pick strong stocks that are likely to recover as your offset.

Another hedge we have in our Short-Term Portfolio, whose job it is to protect our Long-Term Portfolio, is shorting the Ultra-Long Russell ETF (TNA), which is back at $60 but our hedge is still holding up well for the moment:

TNA Long Put

2020 17-JAN 65.00 PUT [TNA @ $60.88 $1.92]

40

4/17/2019

(212)

$43,000

$10.75

$1.03

$11.19

$11.78

-

$4,100

9.5%

$47,100

TNA Short Put

2020 17-JAN 35.00 PUT [TNA @ $60.88 $1.92]

-40

2/15/2019

(212)

$-8,800

$2.20

$-0.39

$1.82

$-0.09

$1,540

17.5%

$-7,260

TNA is a 3x long ETF so, if the Russell were to fall 10%, back to 1,400, then TNA should drop 30%, to $42.62 and that would put our $65 puts $22.38 in the money and the net $34,200 spread we entered would be worth $89,520 for a gain of $55,320 (161%) and we're already up $5,640 (16.5%) but there's plenty of room to run so still good for a new hedge. The Russell has been a lagging index in the recovery from the last 10% dip and is now resting right on the 50-day moving average so it's going to be a leading indicator today:

Not only is Fed easing now baked into the market but President Trump yesterday threatened to "demote" Fed Chair Powell if he doesn't like the rate decision. Of course, demoting Fed Chairs is not a thing, but try telling that to people watching Fox news. Bloomberg News reported Tuesday morning that the White House had looked into demoting Powell in February and Trump was asked if that's still his intention to which the President replied "Let's see what he does" and that Trump wants "a level playing field" with money-printing Europe.

There would be nothing more ridiculous than squandering a rate cut when there is no crisis, employment is full and the markets are at all-time highs but Trump is still running far, far short of Obama's first-term performance in Market Gains, Job Creation, Housing Index, Consumer Confidence, GDP Growth, Wage Gains, Business Confidence, Deficit Reduction, Foreign Policy, Aprroval Ratings… – so he needs a win SOMEWHERE!

Yesterday we had a bit of success shorting the Dow BELOW (not above) the 26,500 line and, if the Fed disappoints (2pm), that could be an exciting play for the day. 26,550 was the high on the /YM Futures so that's the next shorting line if 26,500 holds but I really can't imagine what the Fed could say that would justify yesterday's rally.

Speaking of justifications, OPEC is acquiescing to Russia's demands to move their meeting to July 1-2 in Vienna and OPEC will do ANYTHING to get the Russians to join them in cutting production – just in time to screw American drivers over the July 4th Holiday. If you believe in OPEC+, you can play the September Gasoline Futures (/RBU19) long off the $1.65 line ($1.62 has been the lows so I'd plan to DD there for a $1.635 avg and stop below $1.60) or you can play the Gasoling ETF (UGA) and I'd go with:

Sell 10 UGA July $28 puts for $1.40 ($1,400)

Buy 20 UGA July $27 calls for $1.70 ($3,400)

Sell 20 UGA July $29 calls for 0.75 ($1,500)

That's net $500 on the $4,000 spread so $3,500 (700%) profit potential in just 30 days and your worst-case scenario is ending up long 1,000 shares of UGA at net $28.50 (assuming your spread is wiped out). Trump wants the Dollar weaker, which is also good for Oil and Gasoline prices and OPEC certainly wants Oil higher and Tesla (TSLA) may collapse soon as Q2 deliveries end up disappointing people after all – all possible positives for UGA.

Well, there's a few ways to make money while we wait for the Fed to disappoint us.

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I've recently done exactly what Phil described. I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct. by transferring acct. from TDA to TOS. TDA would not allow spreads; TOS does. Neither will allow naked options. With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over. This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal. This wasn't an original idea. Phil put me onto it. Since the transfer I've substantially increased my performance in the IRA!

Iflantheman

Sold the BG puts I got yesterday at $1.30 for $2 just now. Might be a little early, but I'm happy with that gain. Thanks Phil.

Smasher

Thank you Phil we appreciate all the work you put in to teach us valuable lessons about investing.

Pat Swap

Phil-
I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

Acd54

Probably the best approach and method I have ever seen for the public and I have worked for some serious traders at the biggest houses doing research. Those guys all have various forms of inside info that you and I do not and cannot have. Davis simply has a great system based on a very deep understanding and experience that gives him market savvy that is very real. A very smart guy and he shares it for a fee. He knows how to use options to great advantage and make money trading.

DowntoEarthThinking

In options trading, one must remain flexible with the ability to adjust to take advantage of the unexpected moves in the market. It is like chess - spend most of your time strategizing the next move. A good understanding of options is necessary to change direction and make adjustments as the market moves against you. I have a friend that honed his option skills while a member of Phil's elite membership over a period of two years. With the education acquired, he made over $2 Mil in that period, trading options and following the plays put on by Phil. If making money is your goal, then he is the go-to guy, as he knows option strategies better than anyone, and market timing is also a skill he has mastered.

1234gel

Phil, 26% on the week for the 20% I day-trade, and since drinking the kool-aid last fall, the whole portfolio has doubled. Have a great weekend !!

JRW III

Hey Phil - writing to thank you!
First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable!
I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.

Bcfla

Phil - I followed your great pick re F and sold short the 1011 2.50 puts (200 contracts) and paid for the next 10 years of membership fees…. Thanks!

Gel1

Market manipulation…. One of the things I've gained from this site is the concept of market manipulation. I never thought it was so prevalent, but now I know it is. I actually consider its effect when I make trades. Several days ago, when AAPL was moving toward 220 I sold 210 calls. My reasoning was that they will probably pin this month at 210. They came in big time as the stock moved ever closer to 210. I agree with Phil's comment that one of the things we need to do is find out what they are manipulating, and how, and hitch a ride. They are doing this with several equities. I've actually seen one article describing several equities that were being manipulated to pin at expiration each month, and describing how it was done, and of course Phil has described it well. In some ways it's easier to figure this out than it is a ‘normal' market behavior, and thus easier to make money in certain equities.

Iflantheman

Phil.... I remember back in March of '09, you stated " Unless you think the country is going to hell in a hand-basket, NOW is the time to do your buying". Do you remember ?
I took your advice, and bought leap $2.00 calls on F, approximately 200,000 shares using the options, for just pennies. Now that was the best Ford I ever owned.... made over $1 mil - thanks go to you Phil. I now drive a Mercedes but still "love" the Ford.

1234Gel

Thanks for all the work you put into this site. I have looked at a few other option advisory or "mentoring" services this year, but no one offers even a fraction of the content or the level of services you provide at PSW!

Jelutuck

I am about 1000 hours into learning about investing. While, I have tried other websites along the way, they don't teach or focus on selling premiums and certainly don't have your mindset. Anyway, I have a lot to learn and look forward to the new portfolios.
So, thank ALL of you for being patient and teaching others how to "Be the House and not the Gambler"!

GrassHopper67

Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.

Steve

The strategy you have laid out pretty much mirrors much of my trading activity. I also mix in some momentum plays and "drop dead" bargains that come across my radar. My YTD trading profit is 63%. Back in March when Phil said "unless you think the world is coming to an end, then NOW is the time to start taking positions in Buy/Writes with the VIX so high." I jumped in with both feet - ( thanks, again Phil)

Chaps

Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !

Gel1

Hey Phil,
You called all the trends and market movements with perfection this week. I enjoyed it! Thanks for keeping us sane!

GClay

I love volatile days like this when you can make a bunch of money on these big swings. As long as you have Phil on your side calling the bottoms and the tops of course.

craigsa620

Happy Thanksgiving Phil and to your family and associates. Also to all of the other fellow citizens of Phil's Stock World. I am particularly happy and thankful that I clicked on your article in Seeking Alpha a number of years ago. That opened the gate to Phil's Stock World and "being the house". My wallet thanks you as does my peace of mind in trading options, stocks and rarely futures. Your liberal views opened up my views—being a boot strapper (pulled myself out of a poor background) I was a CONSERVATIVE—cynical of others who weren't as driven. Now, I am much less so; you have taught me more than how to make money and manage risk. So, again I give thanks to you and the others of PSW!!

Newthugger

hil, I hit my targets for the year in my 401K (thanks in no small part to your site), so I cashed out of all positions a couple of weeks ago. Feels good... I'm conservative with this money –looking for 2% per month, which i've been able to do… thx.

Lunar

I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.

Pharmboy

I have to say, hands down, this is one of the best educational experiences I've had in my life. I've even gotten my wife (accountant) into the webinars and she wants to master this concept of selling premium and making smart, conservative investment decisions. She'll eventually use this knowledge to manage her clients' wealth and make smart investment choices for them. Bib big thanks Phil!!

AmalfiCoast

I have been reading the "free" PSW for about a year and have always liked Phil's style as it closely resembled the way I like to trade (mostly naked put options). I have been a paid subscriber for about 5 weeks and I have been learning a lot from Phil and other members. I had made some money on Phil's "free" ideas in the past and I joined because one of Phil's futures ideas paid for my subscription within the same day (NG). Phil deserved my subscription and I was eager to learn more. I just did a quick tally and within the last 5 weeks the ideas that I chose to follow from Phil generated over 25K in options profits and 12K in futures profits (some of my trades were more conservative than what Phil's had suggested). I have a lot to learn, experience and confidence to gain. Thanks again Phil and Successful Trading to all.

Verreaul

Phil: Thank You!
Scaling, Scaling, and Scaling… then patience, patience, patience I'm 2 to 1 short and even on a day the broad market is up I had my largest one day gain in years. The last 6 weeks in fact have been great. I really feel I've learned to use some tools that will enable me to deal with the turbulence ahead. Selling short calls is definitely my preferred approach. Even allowed me to play golf this afternoon while the premium melted away and shoot a career low round. I owe you man!

Lincoln

Phil - I celebrate today, having reached my goal for the year, trading in sync with your education and guidance, of 1 million in profit. I learned a lot, achieved much, and am profoundly grateful. To be honest, when I set the goal I thought it was daunting, as I have for many years been an investor in equities but did very little with options. Learning and doing has for me been a blast!
I reached my goal by following Phil's strategies - lots of Buy/Writes, covered calls on equities , naked put entries for income production. I did it with 2.5 mil and kept 600,000 in cash in case I got in trouble. I concentrated on stocks (many of my own choosing) that had decent dividends and wrote front month calls against (OTM) which has worked well in this market run. 25% of my gain is in dividends and premium selling, with the balance in appreciation.

Gel1

Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!

Rookie IRA Investor

Why were the analysts wrong?
If I were a Japanese investor who purchased US stocks prior to November at Y80 yen to the dollar, with the US market up an average of 15% or more and upon selling the asset I covert dollars to Yen, also realizing an additional 25% gain (one dollar now converts to 100+ Yen rather than the 80 I used at time of purchase), I think I would be unloading US assets also.
But analysts never do the math in their articles nor very rarely bring up or discuss the ramifications of currency fluctuations. I don't include Phil in this group as this is a valuable lesson I am learning from him.

Denlundy

I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades! In addition to learning patience and profit-taking, I think one of the most important things I'm learning here is to stick to stocks and trades that suit my temperament. And wow, I had NO idea how hard it was to learn patience. I should say "practice" instead of "learn", because it seems to be a constant struggle. Phil, please keep reminding us how nice CASH is!

Jerseyside

Started my membership in mid-Oct and have since then learned so much about options by reading the site's articles and postings, members' chats and suggested trades – as a bonus, the articles are entertaining as well! Phil's long-term investing strategy makes really good sense as I've seen its effect on my GLW positions.
Phil – thanks for sharing your knowledge of the market! I've worked as risk analyst for the investment dept of a $19B insurance company, and the scope and depth of your daily commentaries blows away what I have seen and heard from the PMs and even the chief investment officer! Most of all, I will continue to be a member because you have your priorities right (from my POV) – it's not all about money and power.

Bai2r

Well I want to thank P. Davis for his style and for the fact that he affirmed my thoughts for a correction. He was right and his confirmation of my bias saved me thousands. Mr. Davis is amoral when it comes to money. He realizes the poor are screwed but we must fight to win. A measure of sarcasm and dark humour and it is great reading. 100% right on the correction.

The libertarians may cry freedom and equality, but their world is the opposite. A Citigroup analysis of bitcoin from 2014 found that ‘47 individuals held about 30%, another 900 held a further 20%, the next 10,000 about 25% and another million about 20%.’ No country on earth has such an unequal distribution of assets and wealth.

2. Credit spreads are near record lows and the stock market is near record highs. Are they discounting good times ahead or are markets just responding to hopes of a cut and the Fed and the markets are just chasing each other in circles?

3. Rate cuts from here would further inflate the everything asset price bubble and not help economic growth;

Phil; a question about managing margin. I ask for two reasons. Your update to CMG seems like it's a huge risk by adding the new call spread and 10 560 puts. Those puts put you in a position to possibly have to buy 1000 shares at $560 or $560,000. I know portfolio margin does not hold back that much but isn't the risk too big for a $1.3 million dollar portfolio? On the Boca portfolio, where your not eligible for portfolio margin, it seems like that TAP position would hold huge percentage of your overall buying power. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks

QUIK, my personal albatross, hit a new low today as they are selling stock at $.50 through an underwriting handled by Oppenheimer.

However, they reiterated their forecast to increase revenues by more than 50% this year. Still no fundamentals yet to justify even this price. It's all based on the come. I remain battered and bruised but still over weighted and cautiously optimistic.

I have to finish the LTP and then I'm out of here at 1pm (off to NYC until Mon).

I will be at the airport at 2 so hopefully I can weigh in on the Fed.

Note above I still like shorting the Dow if it crosses back below 26,500 or tests 26,650 but the RUT is the key indicator for the day, over or under the 50 dma at 1,550. /NQ was again rejected at 7,700.

While I'm tempted to get more bearish in our portfolios, we don't actually know what's going to happen and they are battle-tested fairly neutral so I'm not going to change them now.

BitCoin/StJ – That's why it will ultimately fail. If there are 17M BitCoins in print (or whatever) and 47 people have 5.5M, that's an implied $55Bn right now and people are fantasizing about $50,000 BitCoin, which would be $275Bn or about $6Bn for each of the $47 so the whole thing is a joke and always has been – as are most cryptos. There were no "early adapters" of the Euro that got to have Billions of them for $1,000 – that's simply not how currency works – no matter how much the 47 would like it to…

Of course, being a BitCoin Billionaire (they all are) means you have a lot of money to spread around to buy PR for BitCoin – which is why it endures despite the collapse that already cost these guys $55Bn (they were down to $20Bn not long ago). That's still a lot of money and now they've learned they have to spend money to pump up their fake fortunes and that's the phase we're in now.

Cons/StJ – I think hyperinflation is the true Fed goal. There's no other logical way to shrink the deficit (relative to GDP) than to inflate the GDP faster than the deficit can rise – which is a tough trick under Trump.

Margin/Options – The puts you don't like on CMG REDUCE the margin required for the short calls because they both can't pay off at the same time. While it would suck to have 1,000 shares of CMG assigned at $560 – that is $160 (20%) below the current price and below my $600 fair value target and we are -$66,800 on the short June $600 calls, which require $108,751 in margin (ordinary, not portfolio, which is far less) and the 15 short Jan $740s require $188,561 in margin, which is partially offset by the short puts so we're only raising our margin needs by $40,000 and we have about $1.4M (ordinary) available so I don't think it's a stretch nor do I think CMG is worthless so I don't consider the ownership risk to be too extreme – especially as we have $480 calls covered by $540 calls so, if we drop all the way to $560 – the $540 calls are substantially lower while our $480s are still $120,000+ in the money. I'd actually be pleased if that happens as we could then clear out the short calls and reposition for the next bull run.

As to TAP, the ordinary margin requirement on 10 short 2021 $47.50 puts is $4,764 according to TOS so we can have 10 of those positions when we fill the portfolio. The only difference is, we're going to have lower risk tolerance if they turn against us.

Think of it this way, the TAP 2021 $50/60 bull call spread is $9,000 and pays $20,000 if all goes well. That's a nice $11,000 (122%) gain with no margin in 18 months. Selling the $47.50 puts for $4,250 cuts half our cash requirement and double the potential return on cash in exchange for $4,764 in margin and, if we stop them out with a $1,000 loss, then we are in the bull call spread for $10,000 AND we recover our margin AND it still pays $20,000 if we come back up so the RISK is reasonable against the potential REWARD if that does not happen.

Also it makes it easy to sell 5-10 short calls if TAP spikes and we want to cover – so we have the potential for far more income as the July $55s are $1.40 so even just 5 short of those raises $700 for 30 out of 576 days so 19 sales like that generates another $13,300 towards the assignment you fear and every month we have a successful sale is money to stave off the possible loss on the puts if we dip.

In both of the above cases, you can't not make the right adjustments out of fear and, if your margin is so tight that these adjustments quickly get you in trouble, then you need to cut down the amount of trades and lighten up on the short put selling.

SPWR/Wing – It's all over the place at the moment. In the LTP, we were NOT covered so the adjustments was easy for us. In the OOP, we have the $3/7 spread and we are NOT changing it because it's not worth it. In your case, you have a $5 spread that's currently $5.20/1.55 ($3.65) and 100% in the money so $1.35 (37%) left to gain in 6 months if you just leave it alone. Unless you make 74% annually with your cash all the time – I'd leave it alone. If you want the 2021 $7/12 spread – buy 20 of those and keep a stop on the 2020 $5 calls at $4.75 and the puts at 0.75 so you would net out $4 and be left with the 2021 $7/12 spread covering the short 2020 $10 calls that would have to be out of the money if the others stopped out and you would have $3,200 in your pocket and another $10,000 coming if the 2021 spread works out.

Speaking of BitCoin – it occured to me that FB's entire Libra project is nothing more than Zuckerberg looking to destroy BitCoin and, more importantly, the Winklevoss Twins. Of course he hates them as they have tarnished his whole life's work by claiming it was stolen from them so it's not outside the realm of probability that he's looking to crush their main source of credibility (that they made a fortune in BitCoin).

Phil; Thanks for the margin explanation. I'm still thinking TAP in the Boca portfolio will then hold up $4,764 plus the $9000 your spending on the spread. That is what it is roughly showing in TOS. Since it's a $50,000 portfolio, how can you have 10 positions that size? On the CMG trade, if you think $600 is fair value why spend $47 on the $700/800 spread? The 600/700 is only $60. You can answer when you have more time. I'm just trying to learn not making either of the trades. Thanks

FTR – If we close all the short puts and calls it's a net $4,250 loss so why not do that and then we can sell 200 of the 2021 $2 calls for 0.50 ($10,000) and buy 20,000 more shares of FTR for $1.27 ($25,400) so, for net $15,400 we're doubling down and dropping our cost basis from $4 to $2.64 on a 1/2 covered 40,000 shares. If they don't go BK, this could be amazing.

By the way, these are the kind of decisions we make in a BALANCED portfolio that is NOT losing money. Although we lost $60,000 on FTR, we made it up on other positions and it's very unlikely FTR gets back to $4 so, by adding $15,000 – we end up with a much better chance of recovering $75,000 than we had of recovering $60,000 – that's the logic here.

GILD – In the money already. Too early to cover.

GIS – On track.

GNC – Let's buy back the short 2021 $2.50 calls at 0.30 if we can ($1,500) and we'll wait for a pop to sell more.

GOLD – Back to lovin' it.

GPRO – Lost ground since last month but I still like them.

GS – On track at net $28,612 out of a possible $50,000 if they go up $2.22 from here in 18 months. Still good for a new trade if you like making 75% in 18 months but I know that's boring for you guys..

HBI – On track.

IBM – On track.

IMAX – Back in the bottom of the channel due to China exposure so let's buy back the 40 short Jan $28 calls at 0.35 ($1,400) and the 20 Sept $24 calls at 0.35 ($700) and let's roll our 40 Jan $22 calls at $1.60 ($6,400) to 40 Jan $19 calls at $3 ($12,000) and then we'll wait for a bounce back to $23 to re-cover.

IP – On track.

KHC – We are waiting for a bounce to sell covers.

LB – We are waiting for a bounce to sell covers.

LMT – New trade.

M - We are waiting for a bounce to sell covers.

MJ – On track

Mo – On track.

MT – On track.

MU – We're going to take advantage of the big pullback to buy back the short callers, both the Jan $55s with a $4,445 profit and the 2021 $55s with a $16,820 profit and then we will wait for a bounce to sell covers – see how that happens?

NLY – About to pay another 0.30 dividend next week. If we get assigned, we'll have 5,000 shares at net $9.45, not including short calls we bought back or the dividends we've collected and the stock is now $9.08 so, despite being 10% lower than our entry, all is well.

NYCB – Same deal as NLY, no worries.

RH – Brand new and doing awesome!

SKX – Over our target at net $8,925 out of a potential $12,000 so $3,075 (34%) left to gain in just 6 months – no reason to get out of this. For most sites, this would be their trade of the year!

SPWR – There's no emergency so get your prices but, as noted yesterday:

So we cash net $27,770 and we buy a new $40,000 spread for net $13,700 so we've taken half the profits off the table and mildly increased our risk of ownership (by $6,000) so we can net another $26,300 out of this spread from here WITH extra money in our pockets – all playing with house money now!

STMP – Winning on one of our new ones just because the internal VIX calmed down.

STT -Getting killed on these. Just have to wait and see.

T – On track.

TGT – Over our goal but just net $22,425 out of a potential $43,750 so $21,325 left to gain if TGT can hold $82.50 for 18 months. Good for a new trade, I'd say. Still, earnings are not until late Aug so let's sell 10 July $85 calls for $2.95 ($2,950) to lock in some of the gains.

THC - We are waiting for a bounce to sell covers

UCTT – Well over our target but only net $2,150 out of a potential $10,000 so fantastic for a new trade (only 6 months to go) as the premiums on these options are high. Of course, at $15, we "only" get net $5,000 as we'd owe the short putter money but we can roll them.

WBA – I think these guys are so amazingly undervalued so good for a new trade.

WHR – Deep in the money and overpriced so let's sell 5 (1/3) of the Sept $140 calls for $10 ($5,000) to line our pockets. The longs have $22,000 left to gain above $130.

WPM – Well over our target with about $10,000 (37%) left to gain. In this case, the short calls don't pay enough for me to want to sell them so we'll just have to wait patiently for the premiums to die.

TAP/Options – It's taking $25% of the buying power (worst case) for a spread that will make $15,400, which is 30% of the entire portfolio if it goes well. So yes, it will be a large position but it's a good, solid position to anchor the portfolio with, the other trades are likely to be smaller but this was an opportunity to set up a trade that has a high probability of giving us a 20% annual rate of return by itself with TAP trading at the lowest it's been since 2014 when they had 60% less Revenues and 60% less Profits. What trade would you rather put money into?

As to CMG, I thought $600 would be a fair BOTTOM so I'm confident it will hold. $750 is a fair top and the main purpose of the $700/800 spread is to cover the short calls – not to make money on that spread so the less I spend on a hedge, the better. We took our MASSIVE CMG long profits off the table ages ago and, since then, the rest of the position has been about dealing with the leftover short calls.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity is rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending appears to have picked up from earlier in the year, indicators of business fixed investment have been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

So just Bullard preferred to lower now and otherwise things stay the same BUT, on the whole, they see less inflation and make a clear statement they stand ready to act so not bearish for the market really but maybe a disappointment nonetheless no one but Bullard was willing to cut.

RUT still 1,555 watch it to lead us down IF we're heading lower. /YM hovering just over our shorting line at 26,500.

Changes since last meeting:

Weaker Dollar holding the indexes up at the moment – keep an eye on that! I still like /YM short if it crosses under 26,500.

Data / Phil – Even if the data was correct which is questionable for China at least, the world is growing at less than 2%. The EU, the second largest economy is growing at 1.2%. And looking at retail sales and industrial production, there is nothing great there either. These are not numbers we would associate with new market highs – it looks more like early signs of a possible global recession.

Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for
informational purposes only and is based upon information that is
considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW)
nor its affiliates
warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.