Overconfidence in the Obama campaign

The Democrats have started acting as if this election is already won. Romney may be a gaffe machine. He may be someone who simply does not know how to relate to others. That does not mean the election is in the bag. The economy is terrible and Obama has had a hard time explaining his accomplishments to many of the voters. One must remember that George W. Bush was also someone with a shoe permanently embedded in his mouth and he started a disastrous war, yet he won 2 elections. His aides were focused and professional. Karl Rove was a master at organizing a campaign. Bush communication flaws made him seem likeable (and compared to Romney he probably is likeable).

I don’t know much about Romney’s people, so I don’t know if they know their jobs. The country has become more conservative over the last generation so that should help Romney. The problem for Romney is convincing the 10% of the electorate that is in play. His personality will never be a winner but if he does well in the debates that may decide it.