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A Kurdish Peshmerga soldier walks inside a house previously used by the Islamic State in Faziliya, north of Mosul, Iraq. Picture by Felipe Dana AP/Press Association Images. All rights reserved.The much anticipated operation to liberate Mosul has been underway
for two weeks already. The Iraqi army, Kurdish Peshmerga, Sunni and
Shia militias are all involved and supported by a US-led coalition
and its airstrikes. The operation marks the return of US forces to
Iraq after the controversial withdrawal in 2011. Since the emergence
of ISIL in 2014, the number of US military advisors slowly but
steadily increased to over 5000. After more than two years of the
‘train and equip’ program for Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga, the
early signs of the operation seem promising showing a good level of
cooperation between the various military groups involved, something
many analysts warned could further complicate the future of the
liberated territories.

Addressing the crowd of journalists on the Khazir front, Masoud
Barzani, President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, announced the
success of the first round of the operation and praised the
coordination between the Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga calling it
‘historic’. Barzani added that this is the first time the two
forces shed blood together. He also warned that the operation could
be a lengthy one pointed out the absence of a political agreement
between Erbil and Baghdad besides the military one.

Post-ISIL Mosul

Policy makers and analysts had previously urged for the
non-military elements to be addressed prior to launching any
offensive against ISIL in Iraq’s second largest city which is also
the last ISIL stronghold in the country. Earlier in September, a
report by the Middle East Research Institute urged for the
structural issues that led to the emergence of ISIL to be taken into
account to avoid any void in the aftermath of the operation.

Policy makers and analysts had previously urged for the
non-military elements to be addressed prior to launching any
offensive against ISIL

The
report also called for the urgency of humanitarian planning, dealing
with issues of governance, and post-conflict security, reconstruction
and reconciliation in order to prevent the return of the power
dynamics that allowed the rise of ISIL in the wake of systematic
marginalization of Iraq’s Sunni population. Despite such calls, the
operation kicked off without addressing these crucial non-military
aspects, and without any political agreement between the political
actors on how to govern post-ISIL Mosul.

Two weeks on, the absence of order in the newly liberated areas is
visible. Many blame the dysfunctional government for the ease with
which ISIL captured Mosul and its surrounding countryside two years
ago. Colonel Khalid Jasim al-Jabardi told the Economist
“the [Mosul] mayor is still in Erbil, millions of dollars have been
sent but there’s still no electricity, no food, no water. People
are starting to say that life under Daesh [ISIL] was better. If the
same happens when Mosul falls, then we will have big problems.
Perhaps not Daesh, but another terrorist group will emerge.”

Many blame the dysfunctional government for the ease with
which ISIL captured Mosul

In addition to the military battle which seems to be going
underway as planned, frictions have emerged as a result of Turkey’s
role in the fight. Turkey’s military actions in Bashiqa, east of
Mosul and deployment of its tanks and artillery near the Iraqi
borders has infuriated the government in Baghdad and elicited a
warning from Iraq's Prime Minister. Ankara, however, says the move is
a precaution. Political analysts believe Turkey is attempting to
export its internal crisis to Iraq in the wake of the failed coup and
wants a role in the battle to retake Mosul from ISIL, by virtue of
being a member of the anti-ISIL coalition.

Iraq’s ‘island
of decency’ at risk

Compared to the rest of Iraq, the Kurdistan region has often been
called an ‘island of decency’ and a ‘beacon of hope’ for the
rest of Iraq thanks to its economic development coupled with
political stability. Its Peshmerga forces have been crucial ground
troops holding back the ISIL rampage in the region and they will
continue to do so as the battle for the liberation of Mosul is
underway.

Speaking to New
York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman in August 2016, US
president Barack Obama explained his decision to authorize military
forces to protect the refugees from ISIL in Kurdistan: “the Kurdish
region is functional the way we would like to see. It is tolerant of
other sects and other religions in a way that we would like to see
elsewhere.”

However, Obama warned against the Kurds’ total reliance on the
US by adding: “I don’t want to get in the business for that
matter of being the Kurdish air force, in the absence of a commitment
of the people on the ground to get their act together and do what’s
necessary politically to start protecting themselves and to push back
against ISIL.”

Two years on, this rare stability remains at risk due to multiple
shocks, including the political stalemate since last year. The
deadlock is the result of power struggles among the region’s main
political parties over the controversial presidency crisis. Despite
US-sponsored negotiations, the political parties failed to reach any
breakthrough. While Barzani continues his tasks as president,
controversies remain over the fate of his office.

A long term stability in the post-ISIL Mosul, Iraq and the
Kurdistan region requires a multifaceted approach which includes
addressing the non-military elements impeding peace and prosperity.

The consequences of the protracted political deadlock, accompanied
by the economic decline, have been severe. The parliament has failed
to hold any sessions to pass necessary legislations to tackle
economic crunch since August last year. The speaker of parliament and
several ministers were dismissed from their posts without early
elections or cabinet reshuffle, which in turn has impacted the
overall governance process.

As a result, the public is paying a high price and continues to
suffer from a lack of sufficient services. Economic decline coupled
with the collapse of a democratic order in the Kurdistan region, if
the parliament remains muffled and the parties fail to reconvene,
would add to the instability of Iraq and the Middle East. The United
States should therefore intensify and leverage its influence and
condition its military and financial support for the Kurdistan region
to encourage political parties to resume talks and restore the
governance system.

A long term stability in the post-ISIL Mosul, Iraq and the
Kurdistan region requires a multifaceted approach which includes
addressing the non-military elements impeding peace and prosperity. A
stable post-ISIL Mosul, Kurdistan and Iraq requires the US to have an
overarching approach to help end the politics of marginalization and
sectarianism but also to allow the rule of law, good governance and
accountability to triumph.

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