000
FXUS63 KEAX 301714
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
Today through Friday:
Conditions through Friday continue to look dry and seasonable. This
is thanks in part to a elongated upper level ridge covering most of
the southern CONUS today. The other part will be the surface ridge
of high pressure that will be acting to keep the area dry. Highs
today will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Tonight in Friday we will
begin to experience a shift in the upper level pattern as the upper
level ridge begins to retrograde westward and begins to build over
the Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on the
lee side of the upper ridge. Surface high pressure will remain in
control over the local area through Friday keeping conditions dry
with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Friday night through Saturday night:
Friday night an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will
send a cold front towards the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop north of the area in the late afternoon/evening with peak
daytime instability. These storms will then sink south into northern
Missouri Friday night. With weak forcing, and weak shear, widely
scattered storms are not expected to be severe even despite 1500-
2500J/Kg of MUCAPE. Storms will weaken by Saturday morning with dry
conditions expected on the day Saturday. highs Saturday will be in
the mid 80s to around 90. Saturday evening a shortwave will begin to
drop through the northern Plains with an associated cold front.
storms area expected to develop north of the area during the late
afternoon/evening. These storms will move southeastward into the
area Saturday night and potentially grow upscale into an MCS as a 30-
35kt LLJ gets cranked up. There is potential for damaging winds,
mainly across northern Missouri, if the storms become organized.
Sunday through Monday:
There may be residual left over showers and thunderstorms over the
area Sunday morning associated with the decaying MCS however, Sunday
does look to dry out. This drying looks to continue on Monday as
highs remain seasonable in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Monday night through Thursday:
Model disagreement during this timeframe leads to a large degree in
uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS maintains a persistent pattern
through this period with the upper level ridge over the Rockies and
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
This leaves the local area in a warm but active pattern under
northwest flow aloft. The EC on the otherhand depicts a strong upper
level shortwave trough moving into the southwestern CONUS on Monday
and flattening the upper trough over the western CONUS leading to a
less amplified pattern. This would keep the area a little cooler and
drier until Tuesday/Tuesday night when the aforementioned shortwave
trough moves into the local area. With such discrepancies in larger
scale features have maintained POPs/temps inherited by the
initialization.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and for the majority of
tonight. For the next few hours, broken cirrus will continue to
stream northward from decaying storms in south central KS, then
should gradually begin to dissipate by late afternoon. Patchy light
fog is possible again early Friday morning, but may only impact KSTJ.
Winds will remain very light and fairly variable in direction, but
generally out of the southwest.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin