RIM is the biggest loser, yet again, dropping on a unit sales and market share basis

It's that time per quarter again and Comscore has delivered its latest update for the state of U.S. mobile phone market. The study looks at total market share, both on a per-platform and per-manufacturer basis, based on a survey of 30,000 U.S. adults. Note total market share (this study) is different than recent adopter market share (which has been published elsewhere, e.g. in Nielsen Mobile's recent report).

When it comes to platforms, there are few surprises here. Google Inc.'s (GOOG) Android continues to post impressive growth reaching 43.7 percent of U.S. smartphones -- up from 38.1 percent in October. And Apple, Inc. (AAPL) continues to outpace the general market growth too, albeit growing slower than Google. Its iPhone hit 27.3 percent market share, up from 26.6 percent in May.

[Source: ComScore]

The biggest loser in smartphone crowd -- continuing its trail of losses -- is Waterloo, Ontario-based Research in Motion, Ltd. (TSE:RIM), which dropped from 24.7 percent to 19.7 percent (notably, also a drop on a unit (!) basis). The defunct Symbian platform from Finland's Nokia Oyj. (HEL:NOK1V) also posted a drop -- a relatively predictable result as the company looks to phase in Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Windows Phone 7 OS across its lineup.

Speaking of Microsoft, the Redmond, Washington operating systems giant managed to hang on to most of its market share dropping only from 5.8 percent to 5.7 percent, despite laggard sales of its flagship Windows Phone 7 platform.

This indicates that Microsoft actually grew its deployment in units, as overall Comscore says smartphones jumped to 84.5 million units in the wild in the U.S. -- up 10 percent from a quarter before.

When it comes to overall mobile deployment on a per-manufacturer basis, Samsung Electronics Comp., Ltd. (SEO:005930) continues to reign supreme, growing from 24.8 percent in May to 25.3 percent in August of smartphone and non-smartphone sales. The rest of the rankings looking familiar -- LG Electronics (SEO:066570) in second, Google's recently acquired Motorola unit in third, Apple in fourth, and RIM in fifth. Those rankings are identical to previous ones published by ComScore in August.

quote: Its a service, but its all about the BB phone. No phone = no service

MS sales are all about Windows and PCs. More Mac/iPad/iPhone sales ==>> less PC sales ==>> less revenue from Windows based ecosystem for MS. No PC = no revenue for MS. Mac instead of PC = no revenue for MS. iPad instead of PC = no revenue for MS. And so on, you can see the tendency.

quote: Catch up? They have 90% of the PC market in the world and have almost zero competition for that market. Apple's whopping 6% inst a threat

They have 90% of a legacy market, Apple doesn't care about legacy markets. MS has zero % of a new booming mobile market which is mostly controlled by Apple on high end and Google on low end. MS is always playing catch up trying to break into these new booming markets like smartphones and tablets. Got it now? You should stop boasting about legacy market that MS controls, this is NOT where most money is, as proved multiple times by Apple. Most money is in the consumer market where MS has no new exciting products, so this is where they are playing catch up. Of course if you don't count Kin and Zune as new and exciting...do you? hehehe :)))

quote: lets not even get into the enterprise market where MS owns as well

Consumerization of IT will take care of that, you can count on this buddy. Same people who according to you drop the RIM services and old clunky BB handsets - these people introduce iPhones and iPads everywhere in the enterprise, killing old MS enterprise services and solutions whenever they can. You laugh at RIM services being dropped but then you turn a blind eye to the same tendency towards the MS services. I can see through your double standards retro! ALWAYS can see through you! Don't pull that old trick with me :) Won't work.

LOL, whatever... How can we even have a serious conversation when you keep bringing in different companies with different structures in different markets and totally different situations? "Apple doesn't care about legacy markets" WTF does that have to do with MS owning their HUGE market (much less RIM)?

Look, there is nothing I can say becasue your agenda is already set.

Wanna make a bet? I bet you RIM's marketshare erodes a bit more each quarter for the next 2 years. Within 2-3 quarters the sales and subscriptions actually shrink and there will be no way to hide it any longer. Possible caviat to that prediction: RIM releases something unique that people want that isnt offered on IOS Win7,or Android.

Yeah I agree, MS better be releasing something unique in Win8 to stop their marketshare and stock price slide too. If you didn't notice consumerization of IT - it doesn't mean such thing does not exist.

MS didnt lose more than half its marketshare like RIM, it slipped a few % and it still has 90% of that market, not 20% like RIM. MS Stock didnt crash to 1/7th its value, it dropped like 5% in the last decade. Do you understand the difference of a 5% drop vs. a 7 fold drop? I'll show you the math eqyuasion. 5% < 700% . RIM is NOT MS or APPLE

/paste - Look, there is nothing I can say because your agenda is already set.

Wanna make a bet? I bet you RIM's marketshare erodes a bit more each quarter for the next 2 years. Within 2-3 quarters the sales and subscriptions actually shrink and there will be no way to hide it any longer. Possible caveat to that prediction: RIM releases something unique that people want that isn't offered on IOS Win7,or Android.

It dropped like 3x from it's peak in 2000, stop pretending RIM dropped a lot while MS did not, this is clearly a lie.

You just don't understand that both MS and RIM control stagnating legacy markets that no one is interested in anymore. Companies make big money in different markets now. Your refusal to see clear and obvious similarities between MS and RIM is pretty funny. Is your agenda set or what?

/paste3 - Look, there is nothing I can say because your agenda is already set.

Wanna make a bet? I bet you RIM's marketshare erodes a bit more each quarter for the next 2 years. Within 2-3 quarters the sales and subscriptions actually shrink and there will be no way to hide it any longer. Possible caveat to that prediction: RIM releases something unique that people want that isn't offered on IOS Win7,or Android.

HOw can you even say that? I want RIM to succeed. My hope is that Apple, Android, MS and RIM ALL put out great stuff so we all get better phones cheaper on a regular basis. Adding to that I really hope Someone buys WebOS and uses at least its UI as well. I have no agenda. My disappointment with RIM is only that they are losing it, which is where we disagree.

/ paste4 Wanna make a bet? I bet you RIM's marketshare erodes a bit more each quarter for the next 2 years. Within 2-3 quarters the sales and subscriptions actually shrink and there will be no way to hide it any longer.

"I agree they are losing market share in the US, I just can't understand why you equate the US with the world."

You are cherry picking information, or more likely you are spouting info that RIM cherry picked for you. Check the charts on this link. RIM is down in US, Europe and Asia. The "rest of world" category isn't ROW minus US, its minus Asia, US, and Europe (which together is most of the buying power in the world). Check the actual sales/shipment charts dropping. See, it depends on where you cut it off and make your yearly count. RIM obviously does what all companies do with creative accounting and makes it appear not so bad (and I dont blame them there)....

So I re-iterate and post this same question for the 5th time edited to include the whole world (I can see you are reluctant to address it and don't blame ya).

Do you wanna make a bet? No money, of course, just a bet. I bet you RIM's worldwide marketshare erodes a bit more each quarter for the next 2 years. Within 2-3 quarters the worldwide sales and subscriptions actually shrink and there will be no way for RIM to hide it with creative accounting/reporting any longer.

Also, RIM is still not MS, MS has so many revenue streams. For example, beyone Windows OS, Server MS office and other software, they have so many patents, they even make more $$$ per Android sale than Google does. RIM is NOT MS

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C0v3m33DrRQ/Tn4XWRunqII/... ==>> During the most recent 18 months (since March 2010) Europe and Rest is up, US is down, Asia is flat. Stop smoking crack and lying to me please. CAN'T YOU SEE THIS GRAPH FOR YOURSELF? Maybe use magnifying glass? Or what else will stop your lies if not that?

Why are you so dumb that I have to show you the same facts over and over again? Why it takes you so long to understand them? How many more times you want me to repeat them to you before you START TO UNDERSTAND THE FACTS I'M TALKING ABOUT?

quote: I re-iterate and post this same question

Worldwide market share erodes? Why would it erode if the Rest and Europe market share charts went up and Asia stayed flat? Please explain this. I would agree with you if all the charts for all the regions were down, but it is clearly not the case, is it?

quote: sales and subscriptions actually shrink

Making the bet on RIM's future QNX handset sales to shrink is just as stupid as betting on Windows 8 sales to shrink. Why would one make such a bet? I don't understand.

quote: MS has so many revenue streams

And all of them depend on Windows. No Windows = no Microsoft. You think Xbox and Android revenues can replace Windows based revenue streams? Really? Are you drunk or high?

Any comparison you make for RIM to MS is just stupid and/or an attempt to draw the conversation away from RIM's troubles, so just leave MS out... Lets look at RIM.

So, I am going to assume by your unwillingness to take the simple bet, that you are not confident in your conclusions.

Again - I bet you RIM's worldwide marketshare erodes a bit more each quarter for the next 2 years. Within 2-3 quarters the worldwide sales and subscriptions actually shrink and there will be no way for RIM to hide it with creative accounting/reporting any longer.

Still same questions you have not answered. Why would worldwide marketshare erode if the "Rest" and "Europe" market share charts in your graph went up and "Asia" chart stayed flat? Why are you sure that RIM's future QNX handset sales will shrink?

Like I said companies use creative accounting and reporting and can make numbers look different for short periods of time. We're both looking at the same charts depending on when you start it you could say it went up or down. Whatever , we are not gonna agree on that and we've been over it before. As far as qnx, it didn't help the playbook any at all...

My point is this... I say within a year rim won't be able to use creative accounting and " pick and choose" reporting and won't be able to hide the decline any longer. And you are afraid to take that bet arent you?

Well if I say I'd bet on RIM worldwide market share not dwindling and QNX handset sales not shrinking, will you be afraid to take the bet?

quote: We're both looking at the same charts depending on when you start it you could say it went up or down

Yeah, I can see RIM market share went down first and then it went up after that, but I still can't understand why are you ignoring the "went up" parts of the graph, why are you only focusing on "went down" parts?

"Well if I say I'd bet on RIM worldwide market share not dwindling and QNX handset sales not shrinking, will you be afraid to take the bet? "

I am not sure exactly what you mean. There are currently no QNX phones, so how could that shrink or grow? I mean this... Worldwide , overall, counting the entire globe (not any one particular region) - marketshare will go down steadily and by this time next year, RIM sales, production, sell through, everything will show the decline as well.

Like I said above, I'd agree with you if the charts you showed me demonstrated that RIM marketshare went down recently in ALL regions of the world. Since this is not the case, and since marketshare in some regions like Europe actually WENT UP ACCORDING TO YOUR OWN CHARTS , the same old question still stands that you seem to NEVER answer: why are you contradicting THE TREND DATA FROM YOUR OWN REGIONAL MARKETSHARE CHART YOU SHOWED ME YESTERDAY? I mean this one: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C0v3m33DrRQ/Tn4XWRunqII/...

Well this one you'll never be able to answer I think. Looks like I caught ya at last hehe :)

Down overall is what I am saying it will show. Take the bet, come on, put your money where your mouth is (of course, just a pride bet). I am saying by this time next year the downturn will be unhideable. Take it if your so sure.

Come on, we have been going back and forth for a while on this and i KNOW your are not a stupid person. I know you can understand what the word "total" means. I mean overall, its down. If you add it all together all regions as if the earth is one single market, its down and trending deeper down.

I don't think its impossible for their marketshare to grow. If they release something great that people want it can grow dramatically. But that doesnt seem to be happening with Lazaridis and Balsillie is severe denial just like you are.

Dood, you are not that dense. US is the largest market and it USED to be for RIM until it went way the hell down. I'd ask you to do some quick mental math in your head and figure why dropping from 55% in the US trumps the small gains in smaller markets but you want to ignore that.

Just put up or shut up. Lets do that bet, or are you afraid. Its not for any money, just for "I told you so" rights. By October next year, there wont be any way to hide behind creative data reporting and "pick and choose" facts. It will be down all over, and undeniable. Come on, stand behind what you say or STFU.

quote: why dropping from 55% in the US trumps the small gains in smaller markets

It may be now, but 1) the market for smartphones globally is still growing and will grow for many years, 2) RIM market share is growing outside of US as well. Given these two trends it's pretty hard to believe you, because these two trends contradict your grim predictions.

Then put up or shut up. Lets do that bet, or are you afraid. Its not for any money, just for "I told you so" rights. By October next year, there wont be any way to hide behind creative data reporting and "pick and choose" facts. It will be down all over, and undeniable. Come on, stand behind what you say or STFU.

Even if it's not your issue you still have to deal with it for your predictions to look more plausible than they are now. If you can't tell me how these two trends are not going to buck your supposed global market share drop, this means you are afraid about the validity of your predictions. Why would I bet with a guy who can't even explain why and how his predictions are going to buck the current trends? Those trends contradict your predictions and you afraid to deal with it? Can't expect me to bet then eh :) Deal with your fear first.

This is pointless, we have both said our piece again and again and disagree. I think RIM is headed downhill fast, and you think they are OK. There is nothing left to do but see what happens, so let’s do that bet, or are you afraid? It’s not for any money, just for "I told you so" rights.The bet: By October next year, there won’t be any way to hide behind creative data reporting and "pick and choose" facts. RIM’s numbers will be down all over, sales, marketshare, everything everywhere and it will be undeniable.

I can't bet because I don't have full picture of the situation. When I ask you questions to clarify that picture you avoid answering. Until you answer me - I can't bet. Because I don't bet on my beliefs, I bet on facts only.

The bet: By October next year, there won’t be any way to hide behind creative data reporting and "pick and choose" facts. RIM’s numbers will be down all over, sales, marketshare, everything everywhere and it will be undeniable.

This is pointless, we have both said our piece again and again and disagree. I think RIM is headed downhill fast, and you think they are OK. There is nothing left to do but see what happens, so let’s do that bet, or are you afraid? It’s not for any money, just for "I told you so" rights.The bet: By October next year, there won’t be any way to hide behind creative data reporting and "pick and choose" facts. RIM’s numbers will be down all over, sales, marketshare, everything everywhere and it will be undeniable.

What answers? I we are both looking at the same data available on the internet in the same links we both looked at. There is nothing for me to hide, I just see the available data and I say RIM is on the precipice of a steep fall. There is nothing left to say or do.

Obviously you are afraid to take the bet, because you know you are wrong and RIM is in trouble eh Pirks? If not, take the bet.