October 2011: Iowa GOP activists usually discount the chances of the Libertarian-leaning congressman from Texas by saying he has a “ceiling” for support. But Paul was a close second place in the Iowa Straw Poll, and his support remains steady regardless of his fortunes in debates.

The splintering of the religious right provides opportunity for Paul, as it does for Romney, to keep his loyal base together and outshine rivals on caucus night. Republican leaders have a hard time admitting that Paul could win the caucuses, but they have no trouble imagining him in second place. That’s a great place to be right now — within striking distance, but not in the crosshairs.