Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 250801
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2003
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN TIER OF
STATES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRIER AND MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE
NWRN U.S. AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO WA AND OREGON...AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW CONTINUES OVER MT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
SRN SIERRA WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THERE...AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAKES A RETURN NWD.
...CENTRAL AND ERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON...
IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY TODAY FROM THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
INTO ERN WA AND OREGON...WHERE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED.
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S...LOW RH OF 15-25 PERCENT AND
DEEPENING MIXED LAYERS WILL THUS RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH THROUGH
MIDDAY...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CASCADES REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A WLY DIRECTION AT
10-15 MPH AND GUSTY. GIVEN DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS...HIGHER WIND GUSTS
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGE TOPS...MOST LIKELY FROM
15-25 MPH. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR BY TUESDAY MORNING IN POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS.
...SRN MT AND YELLOWSTONE VICINITY...
IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY TODAY AS A DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING LAYERS. HAINES INDICES WILL BE
MODERATE IN THIS AREA. WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING...AND GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED THOSE VALUES GIVEN
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT IN AREAS WITH
HIGH LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCIES.
...ERN MT INTO WRN ND...
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS
AND CENTRAL MT WILL CAUSE NWLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RH LEVELS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT. LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED IN THESE AREAS RECENTLY...WHERE FUELS ARE VERY
DRY.
...NWRN MT...
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS...BUT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT LOWER. RH WILL REMAIN LOW WITH VALUES LARGELY IN THE
20% RANGE.
..JEWELL.. 08/25/2003
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 250927
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2003
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN
MT...CENTRAL ID...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THERMAL RIDGE TO MOVE EWD
INTO WRN MT AND CENTRAL ID BY AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE WIND SHIFT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ENOUGH MOISTURE MIGHT BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED
DRY LIGHTNING AS WELL. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
ERN WA AND OREGON AS WELL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WETTING RAINS THERE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL AND WRN MT...CENTRAL ID...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT
WITH SHIFTING WINDS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY STORMS. THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NRN ID/NWRN MT AT MIDDAY...WHERE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SLY AT 10-15 MPH TO WLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO CENTRAL MT BY 12Z
WED MORNING WITH SIMILAR RESULTS. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE WARM AND DRY...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW RH
VALUES IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE. HAINES INDICES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESSENTIALLY ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CRITICAL AREA.
..JEWELL.. 08/25/2003
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...