I don’t know but it seems like Dorian might be trying to come back to life. 50% chance by the NHC is good odds for strengthening . That would be worst news for the islands because of short notice. Do you think the weakening tut is enough to shear the potential rebirth?

Something tells me that Dorian shouldn’t even have strengthened like he did before he weakened dramatically. On another note, I wish the Sahara dust would move away so more storms can develop. If this Hurricane season is going to be anything like 2004 or 5, tropical activity has to start climbing within the next two weeks.

Hi Levi, I liked you video & I know there’s been a lot of talk lately about 2004 being an analog to this among other years you mentioned back in March, but I’ve discovered a year that especially recently we seem to be closely following. Out of pure curiosity just threw in some years into the NOAA ESRL 20th century reanalysis & the one year that clearly stuck out from all the others in terms of similarities was 1938.
For starters, I already was under the impression 1938 was a year that needed to be monitored more closely. The season before it, 1937, was characteristically much like last year where the strongest storms & most significant tropical development occurred outside the deep tropics.
1937 hurricane season http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1937/track.gif
2012 hurricane season http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2012H/track.gif

This seems reminiscent of the numerous late winter storms which hammered the midwest this past spring in March & April & a few other years which came up many times were 1893 & 1933.http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/april_snow_records.htm
Both of which were devastating east coast hurricane years with storms failing to make the classic “c” curve on the east coast, rather the 1893 NY “midnight” hurricane & 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane both hit the coast in a relatively perpendicular fashion, indicative of an anomalous height pattern in this area at the times of these storms. This gives me the idea that based on looking at the May-July 500mb pattern over the Atlantic Ocean (done research on this for all seasons, satellite-era & warm AMO, essentially since 1995) & given the set-up of the high this year is in such a way that implies for a system to hit from an abnormal direction, (south or southeast) this gives further credence to 1893 & 1933. However, for this instance, should just focus on 1938.

Given that the central plains drought in recent years has waned, this naturally makes it much more compatible with 1938 that was towards the end of the Dust Bowl era of the mid 1930s. Also, knowing that our current cycles of AMO & PDO are much like the 1890s & 1950s when a barrage of hurricanes hit the east coast and that the 1938 Long Island Express is a great compromise in terms of track & timing between hurricanes Irene & Sandy, such a solution, although rare, would seem somewhat plausible this upcoming hurricane season. What strikes me the most is just how close this year’s pattern in terms of precipitation & at the 500mb level seems to resemble that of 1938, kind of scary to see this, of all years, 1938 is definitely not a hurricane season you want to have close relation or correlation with.

I saw a newspaper article that compared Florida’s rainy season to 1968 so I pulled up the map of hurricane tracks in 1968. All the CVs got crushed and everything in the Caribbean and Gulf got pulled northeast. Hmmm..

It’s not a shocker if the first half of August is quiet. 2010 had low activity until late August and that season had 19 storms. You also can’t trust a model after 5 days as it’s difficult to make precise forecasts after that time period.