NOAA Issues El Niño Watch

NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a 50% chance that an El Niño event will occur. The March 6 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall. If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall."

None of the El Niño models predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 8 of 18 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were -0.6°C from average as of March 3, and have been +0.1 to -0.7°C from average since April 1, 2013. El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic.

Figure 1. Depth-longitude section of the departure of ocean temperature from average over the equatorial Pacific upper ocean between 0 - 300 meters between 5°S and 5°N during the period February 25 - March 1, 2014. Averages are taken from a 1981 - 2010 base period. While surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific were near average to cooler than average, a strong eastwards-propagating Kelvin wave with temperatures up to 6°C (11°F) above average at a depth of about 160 meters was headed towards the Eastern Pacific. If unusually strong westerly winds continue over the equatorial Western Pacific during March and April, this Kelvin wave has the potential to trigger a strong El Ninño event over the Eastern Pacific later this year. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

An impressive westerly wind burst over the Equatorial PacificThe potential El Niño event has been made more likely over the past month due to the intensification of a strong "Westerly Wind Burst" (WWB) along the equatorial Pacific west of the Date Line. As of March 6, 2014, westerly winds that were more than 10 m/s (22 mph) stronger than average had developed between 140 - 150°E, just north of New Guinea. These unusually strong westerly winds were acting to push warm water piled up to the east of the Philippines eastwards towards South America. The "Westerly Wind Burst" was due, in part, to the counter-clockwise circulation of wind around Typhoon Faxai, which became a tropical storm on February 28 near 9°N, 149°E, and later intensified into a Category 1 typhoon. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, was also likely involved in amplifying the WWB. In order to keep the momentum of this WWB going and trigger a full-fledged El Niño event, some additional west-to-east push of winds is likely needed during March and April. Some extra push may come from a tropical disturbance (96P) that has developed this week south of the Equator near 13°S 153°E, to the northeast of Australia. The clockwise circulation of air around this storm is bringing increased westerly winds to the Equator in the region of the WWB, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is giving this disturbance a "medium" chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Friday. The GFS and European models predict that this storm will move southwards and bring heavy rain to the Queensland province of Australia over the weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of the 5-day average west-to-east blowing wind (the "zonal" wind) from average, averaged along the Equator, between 2°S and 2°N. A strong "Westerly Wind Burst" (WWB) formed in January 2014 near 140°E, and has intensified and propagated eastwards along the Equator. As of March 6, 2014, westerly winds that were more than 10 m/s (22 mph) stronger than average had developed. Image credit: NOAA/PMEL.

89 vs. 91 can be explained by sites located on different sides of the same metro area, or even using different periods of record for averaging. Basically you've tried to distract everyone from the main point of his reply by showing one small (and mostly insignificant) piece could be incorrect.

The original point still stands... that 91F is only for one month, and the month wasn't April, and even in August, it wouldn't be 90F everyday if the average was 91.

Quoting 2050. StormTrackerScott:

Just posted this.

A senior source involved in preliminary investigations in Malaysia said the failure to find any debris indicated the plane may have broken up mid-flight, which could disperse wreckage over a very wide area, Reuters reported.

I think you need to look up what "may" means when used as a qualifier.

A senior source involved in preliminary investigations in Malaysia said the failure to find any debris indicated the plane may have broken up mid-flight, which could disperse wreckage over a very wide area, Reuters reported.

I agree with that but you would think debris would have already been found by now if that's the case... if the plane crashed as one piece and debris is floating, that will be very tough to find as it'll be like needle in haystack.

Quoting 2049. Bluestorm5: No, bomb or missile isn't the only explanation for loss of contact. There's so many explanations for the disappearance. If the plane was bombed, we would have found debris scattered all over Gulf of Thailand. If the plane went down over ocean, then it might have done so in one piece which can explain why there's no debris so far. Air France's debris wasn't found for 2 weeks before the tail fin was found. However, Gulf of Thailand is not massive like Atlantic Ocean so it shouldn't be this hard to find debris...

Just posted this.

A senior source involved in preliminary investigations in Malaysia said the failure to find any debris indicated the plane may have broken up mid-flight, which could disperse wreckage over a very wide area, Reuters reported.

No one said it was "definitely a bomb". Sounds like you are trolling the blog again.

The 2 guys that had stolen passports from Italy & Austria are concerning. One would think that if these passports were reported stolen 2 years ago that they would have been flagged once going thru security.

I'm afraid that a bomb was set off aboard that plane as that would be the only explanation for a sudden loss of contact. If the plane had a mechanical problems the pilot would have time to set off a may day signal.

No, bomb or missile isn't the only explanation for loss of contact. There's so many explanations for the disappearance. If the plane was bombed, we would have found debris scattered all over Gulf of Thailand. If the plane went down over ocean, then it might have done so in one piece which can explain why there's no debris so far. Air France's debris wasn't found for 2 weeks before the tail fin was found. However, Gulf of Thailand is not massive like Atlantic Ocean so it shouldn't be this hard to find debris...

March 10, 2014HANOI — As the search for a missing Malaysian airliner entered its third day, the head of Malaysia's Civil Aviation Authority called the disappearance of flight MH370 an "unprecedented mystery".

Azharuddin Abdul Rahman said Monday that the massive air and sea search has failed to find any trace of the plane or 239 people on board.

Interpol confirmed at least two passengers on the flight used stolen passports and authorities are checking to see whether others aboard used false identity documents.

Reuters quoted the chief Malaysian investigator as saying the two men who used stolen passports to board the jetliner were not of Asian appearance. Airport CCTV footage showed they completed all security procedures, he said.

Azharuddin said a hijacking attempt could not be ruled out.A senior source involved in preliminary investigations in Malaysia said the failure to find any debris indicated the plane may have broken up mid-flight, which could disperse wreckage over a very wide area, Reuters reported.

The news agency also quoted a U.S. government source as saying that the United States has reviewed imagery taken by American spy satellites for evidence of a mid-air explosion, but saw none.

China urged Malaysia to step up the search for the missing plane and has sent security agents to help with the investigation into the misuse of passports. More than 150 Chinese nationals were on the flight. China has sent four search-and-rescue vessels and two warships to help in the mission.

In all, eight countries joined the search for the plane early Saturday, but so far no positive sightings of the jetliner have been made. Malaysia’s Department of Civil Aviation said the eight nations have a combined 40 ships and 34 aircraft involved in the hunt.Grieving Indonesian mother Suharni displays a portrait of her son Sugianto Lo and wife Vinny Chynthya who are both passengers of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight, March 10, 2013.Grieving Indonesian mother Suharni displays a portrait of her son Sugianto Lo and wife Vinny Chynthya who are both passengers of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight, March 10, 2013.​Several sightings of suspicious objects were reported Saturday and Sunday, including what was believed to be a window or door of the plane. But Azharuddin said nothing has been verified.

"We have not found anything that appears to be objects from the aircraft, let alone the aircraft. We will be intensifying our efforts to locate the missing aircraft," he told reporters.

He said some samples of an oil slick spotted in the area are being analyzed to see if they could have come from the aircraft.

"The honorable prime minister used the word perplexing," said Azharuddin. "We are equally puzzled as well and to be confirmed what really happened on that particular day, on this ill-fated aircraft, we need hard evidence, we need concrete evidence, we need parts of the aircraft."

Yes, if it was indeed an explosion at 35,000 the debris would be scattered over miles, and there would be lots of floating debris as well. Cant rule it out, but the fact that nothing has been found and we have no information its all speculation. Saying it was definitely a bomb is ridiculous. Anyways, back to the weather.

No one said it was "definitely a bomb". Sounds like you are trolling the blog again.

The 2 guys that had stolen passports from Italy & Austria are concerning. One would think that if these passports were reported stolen 2 years ago that they would have been flagged once going thru security.

I'm afraid that a bomb was set off aboard that plane as that would be the only explanation for a sudden loss of contact. If the plane had a mechanical problems the pilot would have time to set off a may day signal.

The 2 guys that had stolen passports from Italy & Austria are concerning. One would think that if these passports were reported stolen 2 years ago that they would have been flagged once going thru security.

I'm afraid that a bomb was set off aboard that plane as that would be the only explanation for a sudden loss of contact. If the plane had a mechanical problems the pilot would have time to set off a may day signal.

If the bomb went off, we would have debris found already since few of them will likely be floating in ocean.

The 2 guys that had stolen passports from Italy & Austria are concerning. One would think that if these passports were reported stolen 2 years ago that they would have been flagged once going thru security.

Only sort of concerning if you're suggesting terrorism. Normally terrorist groups claim their deeds. A missile seems likely. I can't think of anything else that would be immediate. I hope I'm wrong.

Quoting 2035. Patrap:The 777 either had a Mid Air Breakup, or other catastrophic event. No Epirb ping was ever heard, let alone any May Day distress either, so most likely it's in a large number of pieces at the bottom of the South China Sea.

It will be most important to recover the FDR, and CVR...to see what occurred.

The 2 guys that had stolen passports from Italy & Austria are concerning. One would think that if these passports were reported stolen 2 years ago that they would have been flagged once going thru security.

I'm afraid that a bomb was set off aboard that plane as that would be the only explanation for a sudden loss of contact. If the plane had a mechanical problems the pilot would have time to set off a may day signal.

The 777 either had a Mid Air Breakup, or other catastrophic event. No Epirb ping was ever heard, let alone any May Day distress either, so most likely it's in a large number of pieces at the bottom of the South China Sea.

It will be most important to recover the FDR, and CVR...to see what occurred.

Usually from Late April on it starts hitting 90 nearly everyday. So again enjoy these 70's and 80's now as the heat is just around the corner for us Floridians. Infact it has already been hot many days this Winter here with highs in the mid to upper 80's many days in February.

...Active weather across the Northwest will shift out into the GreatPlains...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected to move across the western andcentral Gulf Coast states...

...A quick moving system will bring another round of light snows to theNortheast...

Active weather will continue to accompany a cold front droppingsoutheastward out of the northwestern corner of the Country on Monday. Another day of widespread shower activity is expected across much of theNorthwest and Intermountain West; However, the main focus forprecipitation will be across the Northern Rockies and adjacent HighPlains...where increasing winds surrounding a deepening surface low alongthe boundary will force moderate to heavy upslope snows. The cold frontand deepening surface cyclone will press farther south and east throughmuch of the Nation's midsection on Tuesday and is expected to reach theeastern third of the Country by Wednesday morning. A wide axis ofprecipitation should develop to the north of the sinking boundary...whichwill spread eastward through the Great Plains and eventually Ohio Valley. Falling temperatures behind the front will allow for snow within thenorthern edge of the precipitation shield.

Low level southerly flow ahead of a piece of southern stream energyejecting out of Mexico will draw increasing amounts of moisture out of theGulf. The abundant moisture should fuel an organized area of showers andthunderstorms across the western and central Gulf Coast states as theenergy steadily tracks eastward early this week.

Light snow showers will be possible with another weak system racing fromthe Upper Great Lakes to the Northeast Monday night into Tuesday. A lackof moisture and the quick progression of the system will keep any snowfallaccumulations to a minimum.

The summer forecast I have out is meant to set the stage to hone in. But I am getting increasingly concerned on what could cause great agricultural hardship around the Great Lakes. The alarm bell went off yesterday when NOAA revealed that Lake Michigan had just hit a record high seasonal ice cover.. in March. Looking at this pattern with nothing but cold, interspersed with islands of warmth into April, I am trying to figure out how we are going to get any spring around the lakes and Ontario. Just using a very late, perhaps latest ever, of ice melt on the lakes already argues for the cold. But back in the summer of 09, there was talk after July anyway it was the year without a summer. In fact if we look at the summers of 04 and 09, both with el ninos coming on, both were the coolest summers we have seen around the great lakes in the past 15 years. However now we have the added problem of abnormally cold water anyway.Think about it. Suppose its May and water temps are 10 degrees F below normal. A " normal" high pressure comes across, but the coolness of the lakes prevents temps from reaching what they would. The effectively supply a cap on the highs and a lower starting point for temps to drop at night. A night that would have been calm and 40 winds up at 32 with widespread frost.What happens if a genuine chilly air mass with abnormally low dewpoints comes in during June?Again the cap on the highs keeps it lower, and temps at night go well below where they would have been. Suppose its a borderline situation with cold.. that if the lakes were normal, there would be worry about scattered frost anyway. Well guess what. Its not scattered frost you are worried about, its saving anything you have in the ground.Just like back last summer when I made the crack about how a cold winter coming would perhaps wake people up to the folly of AGW, the cold is now being used as an example of warm, you can bet the same thing will happen if this idea has meritciao for now

The summer forecast I have out is meant to set the stage to hone in. But I am getting increasingly concerned on what could cause great agricultural hardship around the Great Lakes. The alarm bell went off yesterday when NOAA revealed that Lake Michigan had just hit a record high seasonal ice cover.. in March. Looking at this pattern with nothing but cold, interspersed with islands of warmth into April, I am trying to figure out how we are going to get any spring around the lakes and Ontario. Just using a very late, perhaps latest ever, of ice melt on the lakes already argues for the cold. But back in the summer of 09, there was talk after July anyway it was the year without a summer. In fact if we look at the summers of 04 and 09, both with el ninos coming on, both were the coolest summers we have seen around the great lakes in the past 15 years. However now we have the added problem of abnormally cold water anyway.Think about it. Suppose its May and water temps are 10 degrees F below normal. A " normal" high pressure comes across, but the coolness of the lakes prevents temps from reaching what they would. The effectively supply a cap on the highs and a lower starting point for temps to drop at night. A night that would have been calm and 40 winds up at 32 with widespread frost.What happens if a genuine chilly air mass with abnormally low dewpoints comes in during June?Again the cap on the highs keeps it lower, and temps at night go well below where they would have been. Suppose its a borderline situation with cold.. that if the lakes were normal, there would be worry about scattered frost anyway. Well guess what. Its not scattered frost you are worried about, its saving anything you have in the ground.Just like back last summer when I made the crack about how a cold winter coming would perhaps wake people up to the folly of AGW, the cold is now being used as an example of warm, you can bet the same thing will happen if this idea has meritciao for now