January 02, 2015

College Football Playoff Championship in Arlington, TexasTime: Monday, January 12 at 8:30 pm ETTV: ESPN

#2 Oregon Ducks (13-1) vs. #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1)

Well here it is: the first Playoff championship. These teams eliminated the #1 seed and the undefeated defending national champ.

Vegas line/spread: Oregon by 6 (over/under 74)

Oregon opened a touchdown favorite, and considering the scores in the semi-final contests (78 total points average between the two games), a high-scoring affair is expected by the oddsmakers. Over the last week the line has tightened and now the Ducks are a 6 point favorite on game day.

The game-comparison system uses the Strength power rating to compare the teams' game ratings by pairs, resulting in 196 mock contests (14 games each, cross-compared). Here, the Ducks win the majority (111 of the 196) but the Buckeyes are certainly a live underdog. When the early line is figured in the Buckeyes beat it most of the time.

Following the semi-final games Oregon ranked #2 in the Strength power rating and Ohio State #5.

The Ducks are just over a 3 point favorite according to Strength. Using their Median game values it tightens a bit (under 2 points) and when big offensive outbursts are limited, Oregon's margin grows to four.

Oregon's opponent-adjusted scoring offense and defense are both better than Ohio State's; the Ducks have the #1 scoring offense, while Ohio State is close behind at #4. On defense both are in the top 25 but not to the level of their opponent's offense. The difference is a bit larger when Oregon's O is facing the Buckeye D.

By yardage the estimate is nearly flipped. Ohio State is slightly better in total adjusted yardage differential and based on this they're expected to surpass 500 total yards while limiting Oregon to just under 500; converted to a score estimate this means a 4 point win for the Buckeyes. Ohio State's advantage is wholly on defense, where Oregon gives up a lot of yards (#45 adjusted); both rank in the top 5 in total offense, just as both rank in the top 5 in scoring offense.

Using a custom yardage-to-points conversion for each team—taking into account how well they turn yards into points, and prevent opponents from doing the same—Oregon becomes the winner, also by four points. This is because, while both teams have bend-but-don't-break defense, Oregon's is particularly good at limiting scoring despite giving up yardage, mainly due to forcing a lot of turnovers. In other words, it won't be anything unexpected if Ohio State outgains Oregon from scrimmage but is behind on the scoreboard.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate:Oregon 35, Ohio State 31

In total, these teams are nearly of identical quality on special teams according to ESPN's FPI efficiencies breakdown, ranking 33rd and 34th. So the yards-per-point estimate is unmoved when accounting for non-scrimmage play.

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon rushing offense: #14

Ohio State rushing defense: #12

Royce Freeman is this year's feature back with 1,343 yards and 18 touchdowns, while QB Marcus Mariota has 731 net yards and 15 touchdowns. Thomas Tyner has 511 yards and was the leader against FSU with 124.

Ohio State is 35th in raw rushing defense but their Big Ten schedule was full of great rushing teams and the Buckeyes limited them well (example: Wisconsin, not to mention Alabama); when corrected for schedule they have a nearly top ten rushing defense and are up to the task of defending Oregon's ground game. Still, the Ducks should have around 200 yards.

Oregon passing offense: #16

Ohio State passing defense: #38 per att: #11

In the FSU game preview we lauded Hesiman winner Marcus Mariota for his 38:2 ratio. He actually threw a pick against the Seminoles but added a few TDs and now has a 40:3 ratio to go with his 69% completion rate and 4,121 yards. He was 26 of 36 against Florida State for 338 yards. Four Seminoles top 500 receiving yards: Byron Marshall (834), Darren Carrington (704), Devon Allen (684), and Dwayne Standford (578) so there's a lot of targets available. Carrington was the star against FSU with 165 yards while Allen was hurt on the opening kickoff and missed the rest of the game; however, Carrington failed a drug test and won't play against the Buckeyes.

Ohio State's pass defense is #16 in raw figures but, as good as the Big Ten is on the ground the member teams are generally deficient through the air; adjusted, the Buckeyes are #38. The Ducks should have around 280 passing yards, though OSU's per-attempt figures suggest it will take some work to get there.

The Buckeyes have 24 interceptions on the year, so if anyone is going to intercept Mariota it's Ohio State; still, considering he now has 3 in 14 games it's unlikely they'll have more than one, if that. Vonn Bell (6) and Doran Grant (5) are the main threats. In terms of pass rush the Buckeyes are also one of the nation's best, with 43 sacks led by Joey Bosa with 13.5, Darron Lee with 7.5, and Michael Bennett with 7. Mariota has been sacked 29 times, so bringing the heat could be a winning strategy for the Buckeyes.

When Ohio State has the ball

Ohio State rushing offense: #8

Oregon rushing defense: #51

Ezekiel Elliot (1,632 yards, 14 TDs) is Ohio State's top ground weapon, and he proved that against Alabama with 230 yards against the Tide. The #2 weapon, JT Barrett (938 yards, 11 TDs), is of course out for the year but replacement QB Cardale Jones is already the team's #4 rusher with 258 yards and a 5.1 average; he had 43 vs. Alabama. The Ducks give up a lot of yardage on the ground and the Buckeyes should top 250.

Ohio State passing offense: #44

Oregon passing defense: #70 per att: #24

JT Barrett threw for 2,834 yards with 34 touchdowns and 10 picks and finished 5th in voting for the Heisman Trophy. After Barrett's season-ending injury, Cardale Jones is doing a decent job passing for the Buckeye: he is 40 of 69 for the year for 618 yards, 6 TDs, and one interception. Devin Smith (886 yards) and Michael Thomas (746) are the top targets, along with a half-dozen others who are above 100 receiving yards. So while he's not quite as accurate as Barrett, Jones' production is equivalent.

Just as they do on the ground, Oregon's defense gives up a lot of yards though the air and the Buckeyes should have around 250 yards. The Ducks' per-attempt figures are better, though, reflecting the fact that they face a lot of pass-heavy teams (so the per-game figures are inflated). Oregon has just 12 interceptions on the year and so far Jones has protected the ball well.

They do have 36 sacks on the season; Christian French (6.5), Tony Washington (6), and Torrodney Prevot (5) lead the way. Ohio State has allowed 27 sacks, with 23 of those on Barrett and 4 on Cardale Jones, making the big Jones a bit harder to take down of the two when compared to their passing attempts.

Oregon has 7 wins over bowl-bound teams, and five of those were Committee top 25 teams, including three in the top ten after their win over #3 FSU—who ranks only #24 in Strength.

Oregon had an early peak with the Michigan State win and it seemed to make them complacent; they struggled at Washington State and then lost to Arizona. Sure, the story is they were missing a few lineman or something, but the truth is they weren't taking those teams seriously.

The loss made them serious, and it's what led to their resurgence: they had no more room for error. After the loss they plowed through their schedule and didn't look back, saving the best for last in a revenge beatdown of the same team that beat them earlier in the season and a dominant 59-20 win over last year's national champs. Along the way they won by an average of 27 points including a key 45-16 drubbing of Stanford, their Achilles' heel before Arizona took over that role this year. As good as that win and the Stanford win were, the FSU win topped both of them. It's an encouraging sign that the Ducks are peaking right at the end of the season with their two best games.

Ohio State's Playoff chances took a hit before the season even began, when Braxton Miller was lost for the year. JT Barrett started with a warm up against Navy, but the Buckeyes lost at home to Virginia Tech, a loss that caused them—and the Big Ten—much derision throughout the season as the Hokies proved to be a very average team. But after racking up bloated wins over middling opponents, Ohio State, the word was, had "improved" since that loss. Then came the Penn State double overtime scare...but let's not talk about that, either. Look how bad they just beat Illinois!

The one real test for the Buckeyes came at Michigan State, and they passed with flying colors, almost beating the Spartans as badly as Oregon already had. After Ohio State had handled Minnesota by 7 points (16 fewer than TCU), they'd completed a string of 7 wins over bowl teams. Still, even with all the excuses and cheering from the media, no one was buying Ohio State as a possible Playoff team, especially after limp showings against Indiana and Michigan.

The Wisconsin game changed everything, though. The team lost Barrett, but even without him they beat the Badgers 59-0 in what was certainly the single most impressive win of the college football season. The Committee pushed out the pesky small-time TCU program with relish as the Buckeyes claimed the #4 spot. And in the Sugar Bowl Ohio State again proved resilient and beat the #1 seed Crimson Tide. Despite much adversity and some really close calls, the Buckeyes are a win away from achieving a goal that no one would have expected from a team starting its third-string QB.

Key Injuries

Clearly the most important injury recently was the one that kept JT Barrett out of the Wisconsin and Alabama games, but at the same time it has made very little difference as Ohio State played two of it's very best offensive games with Cardale Jones at the helm.

Oregon was without corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu against FSU as he is done for the year, but freshman Chris Seisay performed well in his place against the Seminoles. Also backup linebacker Christian French may be suspended for the game. On offense wide receiver Devon Allen (#3 receiver) was hurt early in the FSU game and will probably miss the OSU game, and just days before the game word arrived that #2 receiver Darren Carrington will miss the game due to a failed drug test.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

A lot of the psychology we normally cover in these reviews is irrelevant here—for example, is there any chance that a team in the national championship is disappointed with their season? Or doesn't want to be here? And with the Playoff format, both teams necessarily have to have won their last game, and in this case both did so in style—Oregon by dominating FSU, and Ohio State just by getting past #1 Alabama.

The site in Arlington is a very neutral site; Oregon is 2,000 miles from home and OSU is 1,000 miles away; Ohio State travels well and more fans will probably make the trip but Oregon also has a large national fanbase. Still, Alabama fans were actually outnumbered in the nearby Sugar Bowl by Buckeye fans, so look for more red in the stands than green and gold. It probably won't be a big factor though.

Final analysis

Both teams are playing their best football lately, Oregon having dispatched Arizona 51-13 and Florida State 59-20, while the Buckeyes demolished Wisconsin 59-0 and topped Alabama 42-35. There's no doubt both are peaking at the right time.

There are a lot of ways to compare these teams based on their seasonal ups and downs. For the full season our Strength power rating makes the Ducks a 3.5 point favorite, but Oregon has been on a roll the last nine games and based on that they look unbeatable, with the 7 point spread looking about right.

If we look just at both teams' great last two games, Ohio State actually looks better by around 4 points. That, of course, is inflated by the outlier Wisconsin game. Look at the teams' last game and Oregon State's win over FSU looks about 17 points better than OSU's Alabama win. But again, that's a small sample, and Ohio State's performance against Alabama beats Oregon's full-season average performance by 5 points.

The yardage breakdowns give some insight as to how Ohio State might win even if they can't replicate their Wisconsin performance. The Buckeye rush defense can slow down Oregon's ground game reasonably well—they proved that against top rushing teams Wisconsin and Alabama—and though their pass defense faces a big challenge, they might slow Mariota, too. They have a lot of interceptions so there is a reasonable chance they can get a rare pick, and their pass rush should give him a lot of trouble. On offense they outclass the Ducks in both rushing and passing and can expect to outgain them overall—they just need to turn those yards into points. They need to score in the red zone and avoid turnovers, two areas where they are average. Oregon is #1 in turnovers gained.

So basically if the ball bounces their way the Buckeyes can hope to win. And even if it doesn't it should be a close game given that they can move the ball, and stop Oregon from moving the ball as much as they normally do—particularly with the Ducks missing 2 of their top 4 receivers. But in the end we expect the game to come down to consistency, something Oregon has a lot of lately and Ohio State doesn't. The Buckeyes have put two great games together back to back, but over the season they've slipped down to average occasionally (Penn State, Indiana). Oregon has been great recently and very consistent over the last three months.

Ohio State wants to win this game but Oregon might want it just a bit more. The Ducks have been on top of the college football world for almost a decade but don't have a national title to show for it. Ohio State has a bunch of titles and won't have that extra edge. And coming back to the consistency angle, we look at the quarterbacks. Marcus Mariota is the epitome of consistency. Cardale Jones has done well the last two games but that's not enough to insure he won't have a few freshman moments that could make a difference.

We still think it will be close due to Ohio State's pressure on Mariota. And if they manage to knock him out of the game a la Alabama vs. Texas in 2009, it could be a very different contest, and probably the only scenario where Ohio State wins by a big margin. Other than that, we see Oregon the probable winner, most likely in a close game, with lower than expected scoring.

Here's a very rare case (2nd one in the bowl season, I believe) where the Strength power rating disagrees with the oddsmakers. Arkansas State is #70 in Strength while Toledo is just #83; most of the game comparisons go to the Red Wolves, and of course that amount increases when a 3-point spread is considered.

Arkansas State is a 2 point favorite according to the Strength power rating. Using median game scores, that expands to a 7-point lead, but interestingly the offense-limited power rating, which cuts off game scores to create an even balance between offense and defense, favors the Rockets by about 1/2 of a point. We'll look at the charts and game scores below to explain all that.

Both of these teams have terrible defenses and moderately good offense. Arkansas State ranks slightly better in both, hence they are the favorite.

The Red Wolves are still ahead of the Rockets when it comes to yardage, #61 to #71, so the spread is about the same—three points in this case. And the breakdowns tell the same story: decent offenses, bad defenses. We expect both teams to top 450 yards, with Arkansas State approaching 500 yards of total offense.

Using yards-per-point tendencies of both teams we end up with a very similar estimate, just a bit lower-scoring is all.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate:Arkansas State 36, Toledo 34

Neither team has very good special effects according to ESPN's FPI; they rank #85 and #97. It does give the Rockets about 1/2 point and pares the margin down to 2 points, so...back where the Strength power rating had it after all.

When Toledo has the ball

Toledo rushing offense: #25

Arkansas State rushing defense: #115

The Rockets are a running team and they have a good one-two punch in Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson, who together have over 2,000 yards. Hunt has 1,360 of those and 11 TDs, and what's more impressive is that he did that in nine games. Arkansas State's rushing defense is a sieve, and we expect Hunt and company to rack up around 275 yards.

Toledo passing offense: #88

Arkansas State passing defense: #55 per att: #93

Logan Woodside (2,096 yards) isn't going to make people forget Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin from recent years, but he is careful with the ball and has a 19:7 ratio. Corey Jones and Alonzo Russell are the top receivers with over 1,500 yards between them. Arkansas State's D is better here and should hold them under 200 yards most likely.

Further, the Red Wolves have some opportunity for big plays—they have 15 picks and 35 sacks on the year. Toledo responds by not throwing many interceptions, and giving up only 16 sacks all year.

When Arkansas State has the ball

Arkansas State rushing offense: #35

Toledo rushing defense: #51

Michael Gordon is the Wolves' main ball carrier and he has 1,064 yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. QB Fredi Knighten isn't bad either, with 775 yards and 11 scores. Toledo's rush defense is pretty average after correction for schedule (it's #19 in raw figures) and they'll probably yield around 185 yards on the ground.

Arkansas State passing offense: #44

Toledo passing defense: #121 per att: #107

Fredi Knighten is a pretty good passer for a running quarterback. Knighten has 2,874 yards and 19 touchdowns vs. 7 interceptions. Targets Dijon Pascal, Tres Houston, and JD McKissic all have over 500 receiving yards. Toledo's pass defense is atrocious and we expect Knighten to throw for over 300 yards.

Toledo doesn't get many interceptions, and their pass rush isn't particularly strong. But the Red Wolves have allowed 29 sacks this year so they'll give it a shot—they need to try something since their coverage doesn't work well.

Toledo's season opening 54-20 win over New Hampshire was actually an incredibly impressive accomplishment that no one heralded at the time. The Wildcats sit at #99 in the All-Division Strength power rating behind UTEP and ahead of Central Michigan after finishing 12-1 this season. They're still alive in the FCS Playoff. In other words, so far Toledo is the only team to beat them, and they won by 34 points. This game is the reason that Toledo's median score is so much lower than its mean—it increases the mean by a fair amount.

The rest of Toledo's year was pretty unimpressive. Losses to Missouri and Cincy rated really low; the next three wins (Ball State and E/W Michigans) constituted their best run; the loss to Iowa State was about the same as beating UMass or Kent State; they played NIU close, beat Bowling Green, and crushed Eastern Michigan, and through it all had the same subdued game ratings. Except for that first game standing out like a beacon.

Arkansas State had a good first six games, then things went a bit rocky. At 4-2, they had beaten Montana State 37-10, Utah State in overtime, and ULM and Georgia State handily. Their losses were to Tennessee and Miami. Nothing wrong with that.

Then they lost to ULL 55-40, the first of three bad losses. The others were to Appalachian State and Texas State, and came back to back. The defense died in all three games and the offense did poorly considering who they were playing. The late wins, especially beating South Alabama 45-10, were pretty good. And they closed with a 68-point crushing of New Mexico State. They don't get full credit for that win under the Offense-Limiting power rating, so it docks their rating a bit in the comparisons in the section at the top. At the same time the offense excelled, the defense gave up 35 to a very poor offense.

So while it appears the offense keep reaching new heights, the defense is tunneling down to new lows.

Key Injuries

Arkansas State is getting D-back Charleston Girley back for the bowl game; he hasn't played since the first month of the season. Toledo starting D-back Jordan Haden has missed the last few games and won't be back for the bowl.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Toledo's season: +1 win; Arkansas State's season: +0 wins

Toledo's momentum: +0 wins; Arkansas State's momentum: -1 win

Toledo won final game: yes; Arkansas State won final game: yes

Toledo glad to be here? sure; Arkansas State glad to be here: why not

Toledo time zones from home: 1; Arkansas State time zones from home: 0;

Neither team changed their record much, or had much momentum shift during the season. They both won their final game in solid fashion, and both should be okay with the bowl game—especially Arkansas State, as they saw several Sun Belt comrades go without despite qualifying.

You could argue Arkansas State is playing closer to home in the south, but it's not that close and Toledo isn't the entire country away. Perhaps the most shocking thing in this whole review is that there is "no change" in the status of Arkansas State coach Blake Anderson. If he makes it to the bowl game still coaching the Red Wolves he's bucking recent historical precedent.

Final analysis

Instances where the Vegas oddsmakers and the Strength power rating disagree are few and far between come bowl season. Usually they're within a few points, so if one team is favored by a field goal, it might be a 1 point favorite or a 5-point favorite in Strength. If that's not the case, there's usually something going on, like a major player getting suspended. In this case the difference isn't that great—5 points—so it's probably just an outlier rather than the case where Vegas "knows" something (they know everything anyway).

Another interesting thing is Toledo's big first win skewing their rating. If anything, that makes me wonder more about why Toledo is favored. They haven't approached that game's quality since, and it was against an FCS team and therefore probably less reliable as a comparison, especially when it's so out of line with everything else the team did. If that game is removed from Toledo's calculation, it makes Arkansas State around a 4 1/2 point favorite by Strength.

We could also adjust Arkansas State based on their split season. The first half was consistent and higher quality than the fragmented last 6 games. Using the last six, we'd dock almost 4 points from the total...and we'd favor Toledo by 2, by the original estimate...or Arkansas State would be a 1/2 point favorite when we exclude Toledo's outlier game.

We can play a lot of games with the numbers but the matchups on offense and defense say that Toledo is going to run the ball down Arkansas State's throats with lots of success, and the Red Wolves are going to pass all over the Rockets. The last team to score is going to win, we say. We could add even more points since it seems Arkansas State is scoring more and defending even less, but we'll keep the score that matched between points and yardage a predict a Red Wolves win in a shootout.

Florida's game performance ratings are better than East Carolina's 3/4 of the time, and even the spread doesn't turn the tide East Carolina's way. The Gators are #19 in Strength while East Carolina is #58.

The two teams have roughly even offenses; neither is spectacular in adjusted scoring. But the difference in the defenses is acute. Florida's D ranks in the top ten while ECU's isn't in the top 100. This leaves Florida a 13 point favorite.

Using yardage as a measure instead of points, the game is much, much more even, with both teams just outside the top 25 in yardage differential (adjusted for opponents). We expect well over 400 yards from each team, Florida having the slightest of margins; this converts into a 31-30 win for the Gators. East Carolina's offense is great and pumping out the yardage, but it's not so great at turning those yards into points.

If we use custom conversions for each team based on yards-per-point tendencies, the score margin becomes about 8 points, rounding to a 34-25 score. Not as wide as the score-based Strength power rating sees, but wider than the basic yardage conversion came up with.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate:Florida 36, East Carolina 23

Florida has a rather large advantage here. We adjust using ESPN's FPI special teams breakdown since total offense and total defense only covers plays from scrimmage. Florida's special teams rank #21 and East Carolina's rank #119—they have awful kick fielding, poor placekicking, and their kick coverage is bad, too. Florida gets over four points for the difference in the units, making their full margin almost 13 points—close to the Strength power rating spread.

When East Carolina has the ball

East Carolina rushing offense: #95

Florida rushing defense: #17

Breon Allen has 869 yards for the Pirates, whose ground game looks weak after correcting for its schedule. Florida's rush defense is strong and should hold the Pirates well under 100 yards—especially since Allen was injured during practice and will miss the game. Chris Hairston (455 yards) is the Pirates' 2nd leading rusher.

East Carolina passing offense: #3

Florida passing defense: #21 per att: #7

This is where ECU does damage: the passing game with Shane Carden at the helm. Carden has 4,309 yards and 28 TDs with just 8 interceptions on the year. Receivers Justin Hardy (1,334 yards), Cam Worthy (886) and Isaiah Jones (766) are his top targets. Florida's pass defense is good but they'll probably give up nearly 350 yards.

Florida's best chance for slowing down Carden's attack is to get interceptions; the Gators have 14 this year. Florida's pass rush isn't bad—they have 26 sacks against good opponents—but ECU protects pretty well, allowing just 14 sacks. Again, that's against mostly poor opposition. Virginia Tech (46 sacks) managed 4 sacks, about their average, and South Carolina (12 sacks all year) had none against the Pirates.

When Florida has the ball

Florida rushing offense: #30

East Carolina rushing defense: #42

Florida's Matt Jones has 817 yards and Kelvin Taylor 565 in a pretty good ground attack. East Carolina's defense is decent but Florida should have almost 200 yards.

Florida passing offense: #102

East Carolina passing defense: #118 per att: #84

Jeff Driskel played most of the first half of the season, throwing for 1,092 yards, 9 TDs, and 10 interceptions. Treon Harris took over for most of the 2nd and had 896 yards, 7 TDs, and 3 picks. Driskel hit 55%, Harris exactly 50% (50 of 100). Not a recipe for greatness, but Harris shows promise—maybe the bowl game will be where he makes his name? Given East Carolina's terrible pass defense, it's a perfect opportunity, and he should have around 240 yards. Demarcus Robinson is the team's leading receiver with 774 yards.

East Carolina has 13 picks on the season, but Harris is much better with the ball than Driskel was. The Pirates have only 19 sacks this year, and Florida's protection is solid allowing just 14 all year.

East Carolina started with a decent win over NC Central, then came the first of three Power Five school challenges. They did pretty well but lost to South Carolina. For their 2nd test they got Virginia Tech fresh off their upset of Ohio State, and won on the road. Then they faced North Carolina and laid 70 points on the Tar Heels.

After three more wins the Pirates were ranked by the Committee but their play was weakening. They fell at Temple and Cincinnati, beat two more losing teams, then took on Central Florida at home. They had the game well in hand when a crazy turnaround led to a hail Mary by UCF that worked. It was a heartbreaking loss and summed up what had happened to a promising season. Still, ECU was 2-1 against the Power Five, which is more than most Group of Five teams can say.

Will Muschamp's first hit came from the weather, which cancelled a sure-win over Idaho; it almost prevented the Gators from making a bowl game.

Having to carry over their opening-game excitement another week, Florida took it out on Eastern Michigan in a 65-0 win, but next week against Kentucky was much harder and they needed triple overtime to win. That was a pretty sure sign the season wasn't going to be a breeze.

Alabama showed the Gators they were still boss, 42-21. Florida managed to edge Tennessee as Treon Harris stepped in, but he was held out of the LSU game and Jeff Driskel had 4 turnovers and Florida lost on a last-second field goal. As if we needed further evidence Florida was snakebit, Missouri scored on 4 returns—a punt, a kickoff, a fumble, and an interception—en route to a 42-13 rout that was a further nail in Muschamp's coaching coffin.

Somehow, Florida turned it around for one game and crushed Georgia 38-20 behind 418 rushing yards. But two games later a blocked punt allowed South Carolina to force overtime and win; it was the Gators' 3rd loss in a row at The Swamp and Will Muschamp was fired afterwards, but coached the last two games. Beating Eastern Kentucky actually guaranteed the team a bowl game, and they gave it a good shot against Florida State before narrowly losing like everyone else.

Key Injuries

Florida lost two linebackers, starter Neiron Ball and Jarrad Davis, a few games ago and they're gone for the season. Defensive end Brian Cox is also out with a hip injury. East Carolina's Lamar Ivey (D-back, #5 tackler) will miss the game, but they might get receiver Trevon Brown back from mid-season injury.

Update: Both teams have taken a hit in the last few weeks. East Carolina will be missing defensive starters Terry Williams and Domonique Lennon due to suspensions. And on offense, leading rusher Breon Allen won't play either. Florida's top punt returner Andre Debose apparently decided to sit out the game while d-line starter Darius Cummings is suspended. QB Treon Harris was charged for driving without a license but it appears he will play.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

East Carolina's season: -1 win; Florida's season: +2 wins

East Carolina's momentum: -2 wins; Florida's momentum: +0 wins

East Carolina won final game: NO; Florida won final game: no

East Carolina glad to be here? probably; Florida glad to be here: probably

East Carolina time zones from home: 1; Florida time zones from home: 1;

East Carolina's season started with a lot more promise than it finished with, but they got a bowl game against a high-profile opponent. Florida improved from last year's 4-8 but it wasn't enough to save Will Muschamp's job. Neither team won their final game but ECU had a heartbreak loss.

Neither team will be too excited about the bowl game, either, since both want more. ECU had a shot at something better and frittered it away; Florida expects to be better than 6-5. On the other hand, the Gators missed a bowl game altogether last year so they'll have some level of excitement. Fans can say "wait till next year" but that doesn't always work for players.

Final analysis

Florida is now without Will Muschamp, and when a coach is fired, the question is how do the players respond in the bowl game. Florida hired Jim McElwain from the Colorado State Rams, but the interim coach will be DJ Durkin. Since Muschamp was fired in mid-November, it isn't a shock the players have to deal with, and they're in the hands of their defensive coordinator.

ECU's final loss to Central Florida might carry more weight, but that disappointment will be forgotten, too. We wonder which team will have something to fight for, and something to prove. It's hard to say.

The Pirates killed North Carolina, beat Virginia Tech, and lost to South Carolina. Those teams finished #66, #44, and #39 in Strength. Florida is #19. East Carolina's defense is pretty bad, and Florida's offense suddenly looks okay when they play a team with a bad defense, say, Vanderbilt.

Given the action on Friday (January 2) this could be a blowout either way—and then either team might mount a big comeback—but it seems that the Pirates shouldn't win this game unless they have a clear motivational edge, or if Florida is just tired of it all and wants the season to end. It doesn't appear that either is the case, but who knows. We'll stick with our numbers this time. Recent injuries/suspensions have impacted both teams but probably hit the Pirates worse.

Washington is a 6-point favorite by Strength. Their offense and Oklahoma's defense are just average for the FBS, but Washington has a decent offense and that puts them over the top against the Cowboys. Interestingly by Median game scores the Huskies are only favored by a point.

By projected yardage, the game is quite close; we expect both teams to have around 350 total yards of offense, with Washington having about a 10 yard advantage. The estimated score derived from that gives the Huskies a 1 point win. Measured in yards not points, both offenses are much weaker so the total score is considerably lower.

Projecting the score using each team's unique yards-per-point tendencies it's around a 4-point win for Washington.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate:Washington 25, Oklahoma State 22

Both teams are in the top 25 of ESPN's FPI special teams breakdown. Return man Tyreek Hill has three touchdowns this year, and for Washington kicker Cameron Van Winkle has made 20 of 23 field goals. The Cowboys gain about a point, but it should probably be taken away since Hill has been dismissed from the team.

When Washington has the ball

Washington rushing offense: #55

Oklahoma State rushing defense: #69

Washington used a number of running back, with Dwayne Washington rising to the top at 655 yards just ahead of Lavon Coleman's 565. Against Oklahoma State's mediocre rushing defense they should have about 175 yards.

Washington passing offense: #95

Oklahoma State passing defense: #45 per att: #62

Cyler Miles wasn't very productive (2,129 yards) but he was a good game manager, completing 67% of his attempts for 16 TDs and just 3 interceptions. Jaydon Mickens (535 yards) leads a slew of receivers. Oklahoma State's defense is just average again, and that means around 175 yards, give or take.

It's unlikely interceptions will play a big part here; the Cowboys have just 11 on the year. Oklahoma State has a decent pass rush with 31 sacks and Washington is somewhat vulnerable with 26 allowed.

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Oklahoma State rushing offense: #98

Washington rushing defense: #37

Desmond Roland (647 yards) leads the Cowboys and all-purpose back Tyreek Hill was 2nd with 534. The 'Pokes are not terribly productive and Washington has a sound rush defense; Oklahoma State won't have much over 100 yards in an average game, especially now that they're without Hill.

Oklahoma State passing offense: #45

Washington passing defense: #38 per att: #36

The year began with JW Walsh as expected, but he lasted little more than one game before a foot injury ended his season. Daxx Garman took over and had 2,041 yards, 12 TDs, and 12 interceptions, completing 55%. Not the kind of production they were looking for but injuries happen—and they happened to Garman, too, forcing Mason Rudolph into action for 2 games (554 yards, 4 TD, 3 int); he led them to the Oklahoma State win.

Washington has decent pass defense, too—once you correct for the fact that they've faced scads of the best passing teams in the nation. Before that—in raw numbers—they are #124 in the nation. We expect only around 235 passing yards from Oklahoma State, even though Rudolph might be better than Garman.

Washington has 12 interceptions on the year but more importantly, 49 sacks, #2 in the nation. Hau'oli Kikaha has an insane 18 sacks, Andrew Hudson has 11.5, and Danny Shelton 9. Meanwhile Oklahoma State has allowed 37 sacks, #115 in the nation. This could get ugly.

Washington could hardly have been less impressive in its first four games. They beat Hawaii by a single point, barely won a shootout with FCS Eastern Washington, then beat Illinois and Georgia State. The Illini ended up 6-6 which made the performance reasonably good in retrospect.

Their 1-touchdown loss to Stanford probably did more for their credibility than the first four wins, and the 31-7 win over California was impressive defensively and put them at 5-1. But the Huskies lost 4 of their next five—all against Committee top 25 teams. They finished with wins over Oregon State and Washington State, meaning they beat all the Pac-12's bad teams and lost to all the good ones. Illinois remained the only bowl team they beat.

The only bright spot on their chart is the general upward trend; beating Oregon State and Washington State by a combined 68-26 is pretty decent, too.

Oklahoma State made waves right away with their closer-than-anyone-expected loss to Florida State. From there they won five straight games which would be noteworthy if any of those teams had a winning record. They managed to schedule all of the conference's losing teams in a trio at the beginning of the Big Twelve season, and the other five right after.

So they were pretty much set up for failure and went 1-5 after starting 5-1. And their performance got worse and worse, losing to TCU by 33, West Virginia by 24, Kansas State by 34, and Texas by 21. They scored 28 on Baylor which mde that game less of a stinker, then shocked everyone by beating rival Oklahoma in overtime to get the 6th win needed for bowl eligibility. The Sooners were the only winning team the Cowboys beat this year. Did the last two games reverse their season-long decline?

Key Injuries

Not an injury, but a key blow to the Cowboys' upset bid: Speedster Tyreek Hill has been kicked off the team after a domestic assault arrest. Hill was critical to Oklahoma State's return team, running game (#2 rusher), and passing game (#4 receiver). The Cowboys are on their 3rd-string quarterback, but he's doing a good job so far, at least comparable to 2nd stringer Daxx Garman.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Washington's season: +0 wins; Oklahoma State's season: -4 wins

Washington's momentum: -2 wins; Oklahoma State's momentum: -4 wins

Washington won final game: yes; Oklahoma State won final game: YES

Washington glad to be here? maybe; Oklahoma State glad to be here: maybe

Washington time zones from home: 1; Oklahoma State time zones from home: 1;

Although Washington basically tied last year's record and Oklahoma State droped four wins, it doesn't seem like the Cowboys did that poorly, or that Washington did as well as last year. For both, there was a long stretch of futility as neither could defeat a winning team in conference play. Finally Oklahoma State got over the hump against Oklahoma..

Final analysis

Amazingly, these teams only beat one bowl-bound opponent each—but didn't lose to any losing teams, either. They are both perfectly mediocre, especially Washington who beat every losing team and lost to every winning team (they beat 6-6 Illinois, too, which doesn't bode well for the Illini's bowl game).

Neither team finished well after a solid start—solid by Win-Loss record, not by quality. But both teams won their rivalry game at the end of the season. Oklahoma State's win over Oklahoma clearly being the more impressive of the two. It was the 2nd game Mason Rudolph started and it was their best of the year by far.

So we were all set to make an upset pick here and take Oklahoma State. Their last two games looked like a fluke on the chart but they corresponded with quarterback play that was actually better than before. And the big win over the Sooners could have sparked them to a bowl win.

But key player Tyreek Hill was dismissed from the team and he's key enough to take the win with him. Minus Hill, the team's field position gets a little worse—or they miss out on a touchdown return like the one that led to the Oklahoma win. Their running game suffers, and they lose a receiving threat. Not only that, but team morale had to take a huge hit with the news.

So now we switch to plan B: a dominant win by Washington. The Huskies, too, played well at the end of the season and that will probably carry through to the bowl game. Their return coverage teams have a lot less to worry about, as does their rush defense. Their pass defense, which ranks #124 in raw terms and thus appears vulnerable, is only #124 due to the teams they've faced, with 6 in the top 30 plus FCS #2 Eastern Washington. Their schedule-corrected pass defense ranking shows it to be perfectly sound, and what's more they have a maddening pass rush. If there's ever going to be a game with double-digit sacks, this is it.

So now we see Washington overwhelming a still shell-shocked Oklahoma State. They still won't have beaten a winning team, since the Cowboys will be 6-7 if the Huskies win—they'll need to root for Illinois in that case (as it turns out Illinois lost, though, so that hope is gone).

Who says there aren't any good bowl games between January 1st and the College Football Playoff finals?

Vegas line/spread: Pick'em (over/under 61)

Most lines have the game a pick'em, with expected scoring to be fairly high. The early line favored K-State, then it moved to UCLA, and back to a pick'em by game day. The over/under moved from 59.5 to 61.

Kansas State is a 5-point favorite by Strength. The teams have almost exactly even adjusted scoring ratings, but Kansas State's defense is far better than UCLA's. This means K-State has the advantage no matter whose offense takes the field.

By yardage differential the teams keep the same relative rating but the game might be closer. Both teams should top 400 yards but Kansas State by more than the Bruins, and that leads to a 30-28 projection. This time, as you see, the offense vs. defense matchups are closer, almost a tie in each case.

Since K-State scores a bit more from a given yardage than UCLA, and their defense allows less, the team-specific yards-to-points conversion expands back out to a 5-point lead for the Wildcats.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate:Kansas State 31, UCLA 24

Both squads have good special teams, but K-State's are among the best at #8 in the nation according to ESPN's FPI. A big reason is receiver Tyler Lockett who is the nation's leading punt returner (w/2 TDs) and placekicker Matthew McCrane who has connected on 16 of 17 field goal attempts. Kansas State gets a few more points and makes it a full touchdown margin.

When Kansas State has the ball

Kansas State rushing offense: #102

UCLA rushing defense: #55

Kansas State's ground game ground to a halt this year, as we predicted in our pre-season review of the team. It wasn't hard to foresee given the losses at running back and quarterback. This year Charles Jones leads with 521 yards and QB Jake Waters is #2 with 471. UCLA's rush defense is average but Kansas State shouldn't have much more than 120 yards.

Kansas State passing offense: #10

UCLA passing defense: #48 per att: #20

Just like that, Kansas State became a major passing team. Jake Waters is having a very good season, with 3,162 passing yards, 20 TDs, and 6 interceptions. A big reason for his success is Tyler Lockett who has 1,351 receiving yards, and Curry Sexton (955 yards) is another reason. UCLA isn't awful against the pass on a per-play basis but they give up scads of yards—#90 in raw figures—to the pass-happy teams they face. That corrects to #48. At the least, they have a lot of experience facing teams like this but the results haven't always been good. The Wildcats should have around 300 yards.

UCLA doesn't offer much to stem the tide, either. They have just 10 interceptions and 22 sacks, which, considering the teams they faced all season, isn't much.

When UCLA has the ball

UCLA rushing offense: #26

Kansas State rushing defense: #16

Paul Perkins (1,378 yards, 7 TDs) leads UCLA's running game and QB Brett Hundley follows with 548 net (8 TDs). Kansas State stops the run pretty effectively but the Bruins should have around 160 yards.

UCLA passing offense: #26

Kansas State passing defense: #15 per att: #19

It's a valid question whether Brett Hundley has lived up to the hype. Though his freshman year was more productive, this year is his best, with 3,019 yards, a 70% completion rate, and a 21:5 touchdown:interception ratio. But it's not the Heisman-level performances many expected. Jordan Payton is UCLA's leading receiver with 896 yards and 7 touchdowns. K-State's defense, as usual, is equally effective against the run and the pass, and Hundley should have upwards of 250 yards.

Kansas State has 15 interceptions on the year, but it's the pass rush that might disrupt Hundley the most. The Wildcats have only 24 sacks on the year but UCLA has allowed 38, passing last year's 36. QB protection has been a problem for years.

Kansas State's worst game was probably their near-loss to Iowa State in game two, and after that they haven't really played a bad one.

They lost to Auburn at home but by a mere touchdown, and following that they rattled off five impressive wins: UTEP by 30, Texas Tech by 32, Oklahoma on the road, Texas in a shutout, and Oklahoma State 48-14. They were peaking just as TCU came to town and, unfortunately the Horned Frogs were peaking, too. They won two more games before having to travel to Baylor and they fell to the Bears by 11 points.

UCLA started the season on a bum note and just kept getting worse—with a few notable interruptions.

The highly-touted Bruins beat Virginia 28-20 in a disappointing start, but it would be their high-water mark for a few more games. They escaped with a 7-point home win over Memphis then beat Texas by just a field goal.

Then they exploded for 62 points against Arizona State. Any illusion that they had righted the ship disappeared in the next four awful games which included home losses to Utah and Oregon and a double overtime win over lowly Colorado. Oregon led 42-10 and UCLA came back late, otherwise that would be their low-water mark.

At this point it looked hopeless for Bruins with four tough opponents looming, but they played three more great games beating Arizona, Washington, and USC. And then, just when it looked like they'd figured it out, they once again played their worst game of the season at home against Stanford. In the end they'd somehow defeated three top 25 teams. But on both offense and defense it looks like the team got worse, not better, interrupted by the occasional great game.

Key Injuries

K-State has been without defensive lineman Travis Britz for 2 games, and he may miss the game with an ankle injury. Also, starting safety Dylan Schellenberg was lost in the Baylor final with a broken leg.

UCLA doesn't have any new significant injuries; at one point QB Hundley was questionable with a finger injury but he's been upgraded and is set to play.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Kansas State improved from last year while UCLA repeated at 9-3. It seems odd that K-State did better in the first half of the year, and UCLA in the 2nd, but that's the fact by their records. Both teams lost their last game but UCLA fell on its face. And both teams were hoping for better things before that last loss, but the Alamo Bowl is a good destination and they're facing a top foe.

Final analysis

Kansas State is a very consistent team. They played some of their worst games against the best team—the three top 25 teams they lost to. But that level of play is still better than UCLA's average game.

But what is UCLA's average game? They have 4 outlier games among all the rest. So there's a 1 in 3 chance they play like gangbusters and a 2 in 3 chance that they basically fold, because it will take one of their best performances to beat Kansas State.

The magnitude of the Stanford loss is perplexing. It's possible the team was struck with overconfidence from the beginning of the season and never thought they had to work hard; when they finally did, they put together some great games, but the overconfidence came back before Stanford. The other thought is more frightening for UCLA fans—maybe subconsciously they just didn't want to have to play Oregon again?

So for UCLA it's either a powerful performance or another one with diminishing returns—either a big win or a big loss. It looks to us like the Bruins's frustrating season will end in another disappointment.