Russia's Alan Dzagoyev, left, and Greece's Kyriakos Papadopoulos in the Group A game in Warsaw. Photograph: Thanassis Stavrakis/AP

Good evening. It has been said on more than one occasion this week that the moment of truth for Greece is fast approaching. This viewpoint has generally been carried in the so-called "serious pages" and relates to what is believed to be the more important matter of the re-run of the Greek general election. But the fact of the matter is that twice in the next 24 hours the Greeks will put their necks on the line with a place in the Euros at stake.

Escaping the pincer jaws of austerity may be slightly harder than grinding out a 1-0 win over a Russia side who, for the most part, have impressed in this tournament, but there is no outcome in Sunday's election that will lift the spirits of the people quite like victory in Warsaw.

The signs don't look good for Greece. A quick pilfering of the work of the good folks at Opta reveals that they have had the fewest shots on goal of any team in Euro 2012 so far (three) and they have only won one of their 11 group stage games the European Championships – that was the opening match of their triumphant 2004 campaign against Portugal. In fact this is the third successive European Championships that Greece have played Russia and they have lost the previous two. But win they must – it's as simple as that.

Russia will go through to the last eight if they avoid defeat. If the Czech Republic draw with Poland they can even lose by anything less than five goals and still make it through. But you get the sense that that's not part of Dick Advocaat's game plan.

Russia impressed greatly in their opening fixture against Czech Republic but ran out of steam in the second half against a pumped-up Poland. But for the most part Russia have been a class act and Alan Dzagoev has been one of the breakout stars of the tournament. Jonathan Wilson has done the work on the three-goal Dzagoev so you don't have to. You can read the results of his labour here.

The teams have been named and Russia have made one change from the side which drew 1-1 with Poland – Denis Glushakov comes in for Konstantin Zyryanov. Greece have made four changes from the defeat to Czech Republic. Both their goals in the tournament so far have come from substitutes so it's no real surprise that Fernando Santos has made significant changes - Greece can't really afford to be chasing the game tonight.

7.27pm: A first email ... and sadly Greece are already getting desperate. "Oh I was wish it was basketball," says Demolay Zak furiously rubbing a magic lantern. "Greece 66-63 Russia in a friendly game in Lithuania. Both teams prepare for the Olympic qualification tournament to be held in Venezuela. I just hope that the referee will be better today. In both games the favored Greece opponents. I think someone does not want us in the Euro." Desperation and conspiracy theories. This is where this is going.

7.33pm: A retort to Demolay's desperation from Joe Deasy: "Judging by the shambles that is European defence we have witnessed this year I think it's fair to say a 66-63 score line is still a possibility." Harrumph.

7.38pm: evening Evan," says Ryan Dunne. "As you and the Serious Papers note, the sporting and political parallels for the Greeks are striking. Perhaps Greek readers could say whether they'd rather have salvation in the Euro (dodgy currency) or have another 2004-style triump in the Euro (not overly dodgy competition)? I'm sure I can't be the only British person who's occasionally wondered if I'd exchange a bit of a (relatively speaking) political stability for a bit of Brazil or Argentina's fitba glory."

7.39pm: Here comes the two teams onto the pitch as the Uefa ghetto blaster gets cranked up to 11 drowning out any atmosphere the two sets of fans have dared to try and create.

7.42pm: Jared Barnes has spotted some pre-match shenanigans. "Worrying signs," he writes. "Already an arrest of a gentleman on a scooter. Hooligan connections unknown. Bit odd though as I'm just at my local in SE London."

Peep! Uefa's stupid countdown clock finally reaches one or zero or whatever the moment for kick-off is and Greece, all in white, get us underway. Russia, all in the red, are defending the goal to the right which, if you are relying entirely on this MBM for coverage, is totally pointless information.

1 min: An early sign of how this game is likely to develop: Greece go long to Samaras who tries to fire over the top for Gekas. Russia pick up the ball and start knocking passes around while Greece stand off.

7.47pm: Nearly a chance for Russia as Arshavin gets his attempt at a sweeping pass all wrong. but it looks as if it's going to fall for Shirokov on the edge of the area but Sifakis is quickly off his line and gathers at the edge of the area.

3 min: The flag goes up against Salpingidis from a cross from a deep position. Even though it was offside it's a small glimpse of an area where Greece will feel they can prosper.

5 min: This isn't too bad a start for Greece. They've looked a little nervous at the back, understandably, but they force their first corner of the game which Karagounis clips to the near post to Katsouranis who meet it with a clipped volley which is heading for the top corner and Malafeev has to claw away one-handed. From the ensuing corner there's a clash of heads between Anyukov and Salpingidis and the Russian defender is in a bit of trouble.

9 min: This is all Greece [insert footballers working harder than the country's inhabitants joke here]. Samaras clips a cross towards Salpingidis, who is a real live wire, but he's eased off the ball by Ignashevich.

10 min: They've dominated the opening but it's clear that Greece's weakness is in defence. Little Andrey Arshavin gets in front of Torosidis and stabs the ball goalwards with his studs to Kerzhakov's cross and Sifakis gathers at the second attempt.

14 min: Russia are turning the screw now with Shirokov their screwdriver and Greece a slightly feeble piece of MDF. That's enough of that analogy but Kerzhakov goes very close hitting a bouncing ball from the edge of the area and it whistles past Sifakis's left-hand post.

15 min: How would you like an 'As it Stands' table? As it stands Russia and Czech Republic would go through. Both games are currently goalless. But Greece have another corner - their third of the game.

16 min: The corner comes to nothing and Russia counter at lightning speed through Zhirkov on the left. He leaves Torosidis in his wake and cuts the ball back from the byline but before anyone can knock the ball into the empty net Papastathopoulos scrambles the ball behind.

18 min: It's taken 18 minutes but the cameraman has finally found the first Greek 'Lovely Girl' of the evening. On the pitch Katsouranis loses possession in the centre circle and Denisov advances towards the Greece goal but his shot is poor. "MDF?" asks Ryan Dunne. "Surely Greece are more worried about the IMF!"

22 min: Andrey Arshavin is next to drag a shot wide from the edge of the area. Kerzhakov then has a go from the edge of the box but it takes a big deflection and goes for a throw. This screw is turning and turning but Greece just need to stay in the game and hope to nick a goal at some stage.

25 min: Shirokov is next to shoot from distance but it's deflected behind for a corner. In some ways Greece will be content enough with the way things have gone - Russia have largely been restricted to shots from distance, apart from that Zhirkov break. And Arshavin's stab goalwards. But apart from those what what have the Romans ever done for us?

30 min: Greece are very nearly carved open as Shirokov like a prized chef wielding a freshly sharpened knife rolls the ball across the roast chicken of Greece's defence but Papadopoulos scoops the ball away from Kerzhakov inside the six-yard area. And yes, I'll be sticking with these analogies all night. They will all involve instruments of destruction.

33 min: 'Nothing from Gary Naylor yet," says Eamonn Maloney. "Should we send someone around to his gaff to check on him?" And people say the internet generation care only for themselves.

35 min: As it stands! Russia and Czech Republic still go through. Good news. A storm is coming. Mark Bright reckons last nights deluge in Donetsk was "the worst storm I've seen for a while". When did you see a worse one, Mark?

37 min: Great chance for Russia but Kerzhakov mis-kicks inside the area - this isn't working out well for him, is it? Before that Shirokov wanted a penalty in the area after he appeared to be clipped but the referee says nothing doing. My colleague Philip Cornwall has pointed out that those of you viewing on the website have an As it Stands table just to the right. Blood technology, eh? Coming over here and taking our jobs.

40 min: Russia win a corner when Glushakov's long-range shot deflects wide. They work a two-on-one from the corner and Zhirkov lets fly and it's not very far over the bar. Great effort from the former Chelsea man with a fine 1980s 'I don't give a damn' haircut.

44 min: Greece have all but disappeared as an attacking force but I don't know if they'll be too bothered by that. They just need to stay in the game for as long as possible. There are moments when their ability to do that is being tested - such as right now as it's cut back to Dzagoev, but several defenders throw their bodies on the line to get a block on the ball. "Do you think more goals are scored from set pieces when it's raining?" asks Alex Butler. I have no idea.

GOAL!! GREECE 1-0 Russia (Karagounis, 45+2 min) How do they do it? It's a simple throw up the right flank. Zhirkov makes a huge mess of it and Karagounis nips in behind and rifles a shot under Malafeev. They weren't even trying to score yet somehow they lead.

Half time: Greece 1-0 Russia. What a moment right at the end of the half. What that means 'As it stands' is that Russia and Greece would go through and Poland and Czech Republic would go out.

8.48pm: Russia make a change at the break as Roman Pavlyuchenko comes on and Kerzhakov goes off.

Peep: Russia get the second half underway. BBC still seem to believe that Russia are going out if it stays like this - they're not, but they are at the mercy of what happens in the other game.

49 min: A great barrelling run from Samaras through midfield is ruined when he selfishly goes for goal rather than try and find a team-mate.

51 min: "It's Karagounis' 120th appearance with the Greek team," says Demolay Zak. "He needs one more to pass Zagorakis as the Greek record. I hope that he will get the opportunity. Keep the comments running. It helps relieve the tension caused by the Russian bombardment." Good news Demolay. Greece have started this half fairly brightly. Although my new theory is that they're at their most dangerous when they're not trying to score.

54 min: Some technical gremlins means this is the second time I'm writing this. To explain the qualification situation: As it stands Russia, Czech Rep and Greece would all have four points so the three games between these sides become the deciding factors. Each would have three points and so it would go to goal difference from these games. Russia's goal difference would be +2; Czech Republic -2 and Greece would be even. So Russia would win the group and Greece would be second. I hope I don't have to type that out again.

57 min: Russia are piling on the pressure now and have just gone close from distance. I imagine the nerves in Greece right now put tomorrow's election into perspective - nothing could be as important as this.

60 min: It's very nearly 2-0 to Greece. Torosidis leaves Zhirkov for dead on the right. he squares across the face of goal but somehow Anyukov scoops it over his own bar from inside the six-yard box. The first corner is put behind, the second is headed just wide.

61 min: Karagounis is booked for diving when it looks a certain penalty. He slalomed into the area and, as he went past Ignashevich, he hung out a leg. There was definite contact from the Russian centre-back but Karagounis played for it. He'll miss the next match so Greece will have to make the semis if he's going to break that record.

64 min: A change for Greece as Fanis Gekas comes off and Jose Holebas goes on. A full back for a centre forward. Greek intentions are clear.

65 min: Zhirkov twists and turns on the left and finds a bit of space. he crosses but there are many, many bodies back there and it's thumped clear. "Oh dear," says Colt Kennedy. "Oh dear. If Russia end up equalling this, is this the first real travesty of the tournament? several poor refereeing performances, an assault on poor Glenn Whelan, terrible infrastructure, appalling travel arrangements, yesterdays comic weather and constant violence aside, of course. I look forward to Russia and Qatar!"

67 min: Karagounis' night is done as he departs still complaining about not getting that penalty and Makos comes on., Arshavin wins a corner.

69 min: Samaras finds Salpingidis who gets in behind Zhirkov, who's having a nightmare defensively. He hauls down Salpingidis on the edge of the area and picks up a yellow card.

69 min: Tzavelas's free kick comes crashing back off the crossbar. What an effort. The keeper never moves. And big big News in the other game. It's Czech Republic 1-0 Poland. Dzagoev picks up a yellow card for a bad foul on Tzavelas. he;ll miss the next game but at the moment there's not going to be one. Russia are going home.

73 min: Arshavin plays in Zhirkov who is body-checked on the edge of the area but there's no free kick. As it stands Czech Republic would win the group and Greece would be second. A Russian goal would change that. "Can't Greece challenge the yellow card with the organisers, to get the ban reversed?" asks Wil. "Clearly, that yellow should not have been given." No is the answer to that.

75 min: Russia force a series of corners - the last of which is headed out as far as far as Denisov who hits a low half-volley drive which Sifakis gathers. "Greek negativity," says Duncan Smith. "This is outrageous from the Greeks, not only withdrawing Gekas, who could seal the win, but not introducing Ninis either. Have they no concept of what they're doing to my fantasy team? At least let Dzagoev score!"

75 min: Arshavin is coming into this more and more - it's attack against defence at the moment. "Why are Russia going home as it stands if their goal difference is 2 and greece is 0?:" asks Mary Tait. Because it's no longer three teams on four points - Czech Republic would have six; Russia and Greece four and it would be the head-to-head between those two sides that would decide it ... and Greece are winning 1-0.

79 min: Salpingidis scuttles down the right and fires a low cross which the Russian goalkeeper decides to go for with his feet for some reason. He miskicks but Samaras is slightly off the pace otherwise he would have had a simple tap-in at the back post.

81 min: Russian change: Izmailov is on for Anyukov. This is phenomenally tense.

82 min: The ball falls to Roman Pavlyuchhenko in the area - he decides to shoot even though the angle is tight but scoops his shot high over the bar. Final Greece change: Ninis is on Salpingidis. Colt Kennedy again: "Should anyone be unclear on the rules of qualification (can't imagine why), some absolutely wonderful person on Wikipedia made the following chart. We need charts to understand qualification. Charts. That's another travesty right there. Was goal difference really that horrible?"

83 min: Very nearly an equaliser. Arshavin clips in a cross from the right - Dzagoev meets it on the run with a crisp glancing header but it's inches wide of the far post.

86 min: Katsouranis is rolling around the floor like he's shot. There's nothing wrong with him. The Russia players don't like it and there's a bit of a barney in the centre circle. Of course a Poland goal against The Czechs would put Russia through. Katsouranis hops off the stretcher the second it reaches the touchline.

88 min: Russia are probing now but there's so many bodies back that it's hard for them to find space, especially with the kind of intricate football they play.

89 min: Zhirkov skips into the area and pulls it back to Dzagoev but he just can't get his shot away. Denisov lifts a high cross to the back post where they are queuing up but Shirokov's header is really poor.

90 min: Four minutes of stoppage time. Russia shoot from distance. It's deflected and bounces in the area. Sifakis gathers, is challenged by Shorokov and stays down for a moment.

90+1 min: Zhirkov crosses from the left but the ref spots a push from Ignashevic and that will eat up more time. Pogrebnyak picks up a yellow card for another push as he attempts to bring down a long ball. Zhirkov wins a corner on the left.

90+3 min: Czech Republic have beaten Poland. Russia need to score.

9.38pm: Dzagoev shoots from the edge of the area but it's miles over. That should be that.

Full Time: Greece 1-0 Russia.Greece go through to the last eight. Russia are out. That is astonishing. Truly astonishing.

9.39pm: Incredible scenes as the Greece players celebrate and the rest of us wonder if we're back in 2004. We've seen all this before, haven't we? They defended so well in the second half once they had a lead to protect. The goal itself was bizarre - I still maintain that they were barely even trying to score, they were just eating up time to get to the interval at 1-0. But Karagounis got the goal - he should have had a penalty. He picked up a booking which means he'll miss the last right match which would be his record appearance. Holebas also got booked at the end and he too will be suspended but is less of a loss. Congratulations to Greece. I'm not sure how they've done it but they have. They'll probably go and win the tournament now. If they do I think all their debt should be cancelled. They will probably play Germany next. As the modern world goes - that's about as big a grudge match as it gets. That's it from me. Thanks for your emails. Bye.