Is The IWatch Apple's Next Newton?

Apple has not lost its ability to mesmerize the media. But can it innovate? That is what comes to mind in considering its overly-hyped launch of the iWatch. It also brings back memories of the Newton -- a product that was launched by then Apple CEO, John Sculley, in 1993.

Before getting into that, let's consider investors' reactions to Apple's masterfully manipulated media announcement. Its shares fell Tuesday but have since risen.

Some analysts were lukewarm. According to CNBC, "stagnant iPhone growth and a lack of compelling features on the Apple Watch" pushed Pacific Crest Securities to downgrade Apple shares. Pacific Crest wrote that the "Apple Watch is unlikely to be a profit driver" but it expects Apple to sell 30 million of them in 2015. Ultimately it believes the product is just OK -- writing "Apple Watch is attractive, but the need for phone tethering, short battery life, and lack of compelling features for people who do not want a watch will limit the market, in our view."

Other analysts were more pessimistic than Pac Crest. According to CNBC, Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, called the event "the night Apple became average." He argued that increased competition and lack of 'blockbuster' innovation could send Apple on a slow downward spiral.

I have detailed four reasons why I would not buy the Apple Watch -- I don't want health and fitness monitoring, wireless payment, tiny maps, or another reason to worry about my private information getting hacked. But I polled about 100 students yesterday and found that there was one who was excited about buying the Apple Watch. That student told me that his friend had watched the video about the Apple Watch and was excited about it -- but he could not say what features he liked. Most of the students said that they did not see any reason to buy the iWatch.

The Apple Watch is clearly a different business proposition from the Newton -- its MessagePad 1001 went on sale in August of 1993. It was Apple’s handheld personal digital assistant -- it could take notes, store contacts, manage calendars, send faxes, and let users apply a stylus to translate handwriting into text According to Wired, Newton was conceived by Michael Tchao on an airplane who sold the idea in early 1991 to Sculley. The Newton had problems with its handwriting recognition and people had a hard time seeing why they should replace a $5 notebook with a $700 computer.

But unlike the Apple Watch -- and other Apple products like the iPod, iPhone, and iPad -- the Newton was going after a completely new product category. After being relentlessly mocked in a Doonesbury series, the Newton team eventually got character recognition right. As its product lead, Gavin Ivestor, told Wired, they went back to work, and eventually got it right. But it was too late. “Character recognition got revisited and was just flawless and phenomenal. The one stumbling block had become a joy to use, but it really never got a second look,” said Ivestor

This brings me back to the idea of innovation -- introducing a much better product into a big market crowded with rivals -- that Steve Jobs perfected during his second time as Apple CEO. In that sense, Tim Cook is clearly trying to innovate with the introduction of the Apple Watch.

But given the reaction to the product I have seen so far -- it remains unclear whether the Apple Watch will meet the same fate as the Newton or will be remembered as the product that builds a bridge between the legacy of Steve Jobs and Tim Cook.