Week 4 BABIP, commentary

It’s Wednesday so that means here’s the list of 2008 Batting Average on Balls in Play. Most players should be around .290, so those much higher should regress in average and counting stats. Those below .290 should see an improvement eventually.

This list of BABIPs is unique from what you’ll find elsewhere because it compares current BABIPs to lifetime averages. This way a player like Derek Jeter, who is known for incredibly high BABIPs, is held to a different standard than a guy who, for one reason or another, constantly has a lower BABIP.

To factor in this comparison, look at the last column which is BABIP Diff. You’ll to trade for guys with a large negative number (current is less than lifetime BABIP). You’ll want to trade away those with a large positive BABIP (current is greater than lifetime BABIP.)

There are 2 tabs this week. The 1st tab with the bold stats and BABIP diff is probably what you’ll use the most. But I included another very similar tab, but it has more players. In the tab with BABIP diff, if they players had not played before the 1st week of this season, then they got cut out of the diff list. So look for guys like Bowker or Eider Torres here. Because I know you’re dying to find out more about Eider Torres. A gold star to the one who can tell me who he plays for w/o looking it up.

Also, the tab with BABIP diff uses 50 ABs as a cut off. If the player doesn’t have 50 ABs, they won’t be in this list. Again, look in the other tab if you want to find these guys.

Preliminary Findings:

This early in the season, the obvious rules. Guys like Robison Cano, Tulo (now injured though), Howard, Hafner etc are buy low candidates because they’re way under performing. But I expect that doesn’t surprise too many people.

But what is interesting is look at Aarond Rowland, Ian Kinsler and Alex Gordon*, these guys have high BABIPs but not crazy-high AVGs, that doens’t bode well for them. If they were like Furcal or Chipper, then once their BABIP comes down their AVG would still be stomachable, but these guys could end in the .250 range.

Now, put a star on Gordon because this is my final point. Players like Alex Gordon, Evan Longoria, JR Towles should be given a lot of flexibility. Their lifetime BABIP is based off of a small sample set (1 or few seasons). Because of that don’t give their lifetime BABIP too much weight. And equally as importantly, these are young hitters who are improving their games every single day. Expect their numbers to improve from last year or the first few weeks.