Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion (Text)

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 291456
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016
Ulika's cloud pattern continues to have a sheared appearance this
morning, with only a small area of bursting deep convection to the
east of the estimated low-level center location. The initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from
SAB and TAFB. A very hostile dynamic environment lies ahead of
Ulika, with westerly shear forecast to increase to 40-50 kt in 36
hours. Given such unfavorable conditions, the system should
degenerate into a remnant low by the weekend, or sooner.
The cyclone has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion
is estimated to be around 320/6 kt. The flow on the southern side
of a weak low- to mid-level ridge should cause Ulika to turn toward
the west-northwest and then west over the next couple of days. The
official track forecast is between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks
and only a little bit north of the previous NHC forecast.
The next advisory on Ulika will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 16.7N 139.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 17.3N 140.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 18.0N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1200Z 18.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch