Betting markets focus on statistical profiles. The Ramblers have an impressive statistical profile. They rank in the Top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage from both two point range and three point range. And Loyola ranks in the Top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency; putting up impressive numbers on both ends of the court. Throw in a 29-5 SU record following their opening round win against Miami and you can understand why this pointspread is as short as it is.

What happens when the betting markets don’t have much of a sample size for mid-majors as they step up in class? Simple – any win they notched against a quality foe gets factored into the equation like it was a HUGE deal. Loyola played one true ‘step-up-in-class’ game all year prior to the win over Miami. The Ramblers won that game SU, at Florida, a win that looks great on their resume and ‘Proves’ they can hang with quality foes.

Of course, bettors are loathe to go back and do some research to figure out HOW Loyola won those two games. The answer there is simple too – Florida was as flat as a pancake, coming off HUGE games against Duke and Florida State, the Seminoles game coming just 48 hours earlier. And Miami on Thursday was primed to win and cover, but they missed the front end of a one-and-one, leaving the door open for the Loyola game winner as the clock expired. Sure, Loyola notched those impressive wins away from home, but they’re not wins that convince me the Ramblers can do it again in another ‘step-up’ game in March.

It’s surely worth noting that INCLUDING the win at Florida, Loyola’s non-conference strength of schedule ranked #315 in the country. It’s also worth noting that the Missouri Valley Conference was WAY down this year, especially compared to what it was when Wichita State and Creighton stood at the top of the league.

Tennessee has been an undervalued commodity from Day 1 this year. Blue Ribbon had them ranked #13 out of 14 SEC teams coming into the campaign, and yet all they’ve done is overachieve in what might be Rick Barnes best coaching job ever. This team plays nasty defense; they’ve got size and athleticism edges all over the floor and they’re primed to ride into the Sweet 16 with a solid win by margin!

Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Rob Veno. Both handicappers and host Andrew Lange gave their thoughts and opinions on all of Friday's NCAA Tournament games.

Georgia State is a deep, veteran unit that goes with an eight-man rotation which features six upperclassmen. They have multiple scoring threats led by guard D’Marcus Simonds (1st team All-Sun Belt, 21.1 ppg). GSU is 29th nationally in 3-point efficiency with four players who shoot 38% or better and all have at least 107 attempts. Ron Hunter’s squad is also ninth nationally in 2-point FG% defense (43.9%), 39th in steal percentage and despite their lack of height, 13th in shot blocking percentage. Add to those assets their solid turnover percentage rankings on each end of the floor (offensively 61st, defensively 44th) and you have a pretty strong blueprint for tournament format success. There are however a pair of drawbacks in this particular matchup that are glaring and difficult to overcome. The first is strength of schedule where Cincinnati holds a significant edge having played the 89th toughest as opposed to GSU’s 228th which saw them play one NCAA Tournament team (home 71-68 win vs. Montana). That gap is concerning in itself but the glaring fundamental advantage in this game is rebounding where the Bearcats season numbers overwhelm Georgia State. Cincinnati on the offensive glass is a beast ranking third in the country at 38.1% while the Panthers defensive rebounding ranks among the worst at 32.8% which sits 320th. Mick Cronin’s team will likely dominate this category.

Cincinnati overall has been a better offensive team than past versions but they did struggle down the stretch. Their last four games all slowed down to that typical Cincinnati grind (60, 61, 62, 61 possessions respectively) and they had scoring difficulty for stretches in each of those. Georgia State played tremendous in the SunBelt Tournament and is on a 4-0 SU/ATS run. They are a perimeter type team and Cincinnati defends the arc very well but GSU does have quickness to penetrate to the rim and prevent Cincy from extending out and pressing up too much. The most notable improvement for GSU is its defense. They held an extremely talented UT-Arlington offense to 29.8% shooting in the SunBelt title game. There is a class difference here but with a game projected to play in the low-60's poession wise, I feel that the profile with this underdog is a a good one to stick around.

Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Brent Crow. Both handicappers and host Andrew Lange gave their thoughts and opinions on all of Thursday's NCAA Tournament games.

Creighton’s backstory entering the NCAA Tournament this season follows a similar script as last season. The Bluejays lost arguably their best player midseason a year ago when senior PG Maurice Watson Jr. went out and Greg McDermott’s squad was never quite the same from that point on. They limped to the finish line of the regular season and were bounced by Rhode Island in their first NCAA Tournament game by a score of 84-72. This season, Creighton suffered another harmful midseason injury in January when their best frontcourt player Martin Krampelj who averaged 11.9 points and 8.1 boards per game for the Bluejays suffered a season ending torn ACL. It’s no surprise to see their rebounding rate (which is at 50.5% on the season) fall downward into the mid to high 40% range since that injury. From the time in which Krampelj went out, Creighton again sputtered down the stretch to the tune of 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games inside the Big East and much like last season, I think Creighton could be poised for another ‘one and done’ performance in the NCAA Tournament. The Bluejays have not much to speak of in terms of building up a quality resume away from home against tournament bound squads. Creighton went 1-7 SU and ATS in road/neutral games against tournament squads during the season with the only win coming all the way back in November when they beat UCLA 100-89 in Kansas City. That is not the track record I am ready to trust Creighton with as a favorite here in their NCAA Tournament opener. Kansas State isn’t that “stylish” team people fall in love with but it has been a solid season for Bruce Weber’s squad and I was impressed with their toughness in last week’s Big 12 Tournament rallying from a deficit to beat TCU in OT and then despite being without their two best players and top two scorers in Barry Brown and Dean Wade, they never folded the tent against Kansas and battled valiantly before finally running out of gas down the stretch of that game. Wade and Brown are both listed as probable for Friday’s game against Creighton and should be on the floor.

In what should be a close game, I look at the fact Kansas State is giving up a 49.5% effective defensive FG percentage compared to Creighton’s 50% and the Wildcats stand at 0.995 PPP allowed while the Bluejays have surrendered 1.006 PPP on the season. The difference is minimal but Kansas State has the slightly better defensive numbers across the board and they had to do it against the always rough and rugged Big 12 schedule. Another very important, under the radar element to this game that I noticed when looking at it is Creighton’s recent struggles at the FT line. The Bluejays are only shooting 63.9% at the free throw line over their last 5 games compared to the Wildcats who have shot 70.2% at the line during that same span. That could make all the difference in the world in what has the potential to be a close game. I’m not sure Creighton deserves to be the chalk here as I give Kansas State an equal or even slightly greater chance to win this game which has me siding with the Wildcats as a slim underdog.

What happens when the betting markets fall in love with an underdog? Simple – you end up with a pointspread like this one, where #6 seed Miami is only a two point favorite as I write this on Wednesday over #11 seed Loyola- Chicago. Quite frankly, that pointspread is too low.

Betting markets focus on statistical profiles. The Ramblers have an impressive statistical profile. They rank in the Top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage from both two point range and three point range. And Loyola ranks in the Top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency; putting up impressive numbers on both ends of the court. Throw in a 28-5 SU record and you can understand why wiseguys have been flocking to the Ramblers in early betting action.

What happens when the betting markets don’t have much of a sample size for mid-majors as they step up in class? Simple – any win they notched against a quality foe gets factored into the equation like it was a HUGE deal. Loyola played one true ‘step-up-in-class’ game all year. They won that game SU, at Florida, a win that looks great on their resume and ‘Proves’ they can hang with quality foes.

Of course, bettors are loathe to go back and do some research to figure out HOW Loyola won that game. The answer there is simple too – Florida was as flat as a pancake, coming off HUGE games against Duke and Florida State, the Seminoles game coming just 48 hours earlier. Sure, Loyola notched an impressive road win, but it’s not a win that convinces me the Ramblers are capable of winning ‘step-up’ games in March.

It’s surely worth noting that INCLUDING the win at Florida, Loyola’s non-conference strength of schedule ranked #315 in the country. It’s also worth noting that the Missouri Valley Conference was WAY down this year, especially compared to what it was when Wichita State and Creighton stood at the top of the league.

Miami has a size advantage at every position on the floor in this ballgame. Jim Larranaga’s squad has been wildly inconsistent this year – typical of fairly young teams with only one senior starter. But make no mistake about it – Miami has certainly stepped up well for their biggest games, including SU wins away from home as underdogs at North Carolina and at Notre Dame in recent weeks. Look for wiseguy darling Loyola to come up short against a Hurricanes team still searching for betting market respect.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Winnipeg and Nashville have gone Over the total in four of the last five head-to-head meetings including all three previous matchups this season between the Jets and Predators which had final scores of 5-3, 6-4 and 6-5. All three previous games between them on the season have been filled with pace and dangerous scoring chances and the teams combined for 30+ shots in most of those games. Winnipeg’s offense has taken a bit of a recent hit with the absence of Mark Scheifele due to an upper body injury but the Jets have plenty of depth up front with one of the deepest group of forwards and some of the best four line depth in the entire NHL including the likes of Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers. Nashville has been very good offensively and acquiring Kyle Turris at the center ice position from the Ottawa Senators earlier this season bolstered their offensive potency even more. The Predators have found the back of the net with regularity in recent games scoring 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 games. Winnipeg has made the somewhat surprising move to go with their backup goalie Michael Hutchinson in net for this pivotal divisional clash despite the tremendous season their #1 goalie Connor Hellebuyck is having. Hutchinson's track record against Nashville is not flattering as he owns a well below average 3.33 GAA and .857 save percentage in two previous starts against them. With the Over at 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between Nashville and Winnipeg and the Over at 6-1 in Winnipeg’s last 7 games against conference opponents, I’ll look for those totals trends to continue tonight in Music City.

College Basketball Betting Free Play: UNC Asheville at USC Trojans

Sometimes, power ratings, pointspreads, and matchups don't mean a thing in these secondary tournaments. Two of the biggest factors come down to travel and motivation. Both factors are pulling against one another in tonight's UNC-Asheville-USC matchup. The Bulldogs, who won the Big South regular season, will make the cross country trek to Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the Trojans were arguably the most deserving team to not get into the NCAA Tournament and are justifiably upset.

“The feeling is the same,’ Enfield said of frustration held over from Sunday’s bracket reveal. “It doesn’t go away in a day. Because we should be in the NCAA Tournament. We deserve to be, and we’re one of the best at-large teams out there.”

Enfield went as far as to say he may sit players who are not 100 percent healthy and/or could risk injury and thus damage their stock as a pro prospect. And by all accounts, if it was up to Enfield and his players, they would have passed on the NIT bid. USC is talented enough to beat Asheville without a full roster or intense focus. But covering such a large pointspread could be tricky.

NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers

It’s circle the wagons time in Indianapolis tonight as the hungry Pacers take on the bottom-feeder Hawks. Indiana is coming off a humiliating home loss to Utah on Wednesday Night; a 20 point defeat in which Nate McMillan’s squad hit only 3-23 from three point range while allowing the Jazz to hit better than 51% from the floor. The Pacers lost at Atlanta just last week in a flat, lethargic effort. And the quotes coming out of this locker room have bet-on written all over them.

Pacers center Myles Turner, their lone offensive bright spot in the loss to Utah: “It's a game we got to take personally. We're at home. We just got beat by 20 at our crib, that can't happen. We got to take that frustration into this game."

Pacers forward Trevor Booker noted what happened last week: “If you look at Atlanta, they are at the bottom, but you have to overlook that because they've been actually playing well lately. They've been moving the ball well and they beat us last time we played them. So we're going to be coming out and trying to avenge that loss."

Indiana heads on the road following tonight’s game, and they’ve got a brutal schedule ahead: Boston, Philly, Toronto and Washington in the next eight days. Sometimes, I worry about focus in games like this for the home favorite. Not tonight!

Head Coach Nate McMillan, following that sloppy loss at Atlanta last week: “We've been a team that has taken care of the ball, one of the better teams in the league. Tonight, just a lot of one-on-one play, playing in traffic, just loose with the basketball. We had several guys with three or more turnovers. Just not sharp at all out there."

Indiana is expected to get backup point guard Darren Collison back on the floor tonight, key for their second unit productivity. And they’re facing a Hawks team that is likely to be a notch or two demoralized tonight. Atlanta played great basketball -- one of their best games of the year – earlier in the week at Toronto, leading the Raptors into the fourth quarter. They ended up losing by 16, a complete meltdown during crunch time. That’s bad news here for a team that lost by 23 on their last visit to Bankers Life Fieldhouse. A similar margin tonight would be no surprise for this bettor. Take the Pacers.

NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons

The call the Pistons the biggest disappointment in the East since the Blake Griffin trade would not be an overstatement. And yes, that includes the ‘pointspread freefaller’ Cleveland Cavaliers; a team that just annihilated the Pistons by 20 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score might indicate – a complete blowout after halftime.

The results do not lie. Detroit is now 2-9 SU in their last 11 ballgames, including three SU and ATS losses – all by double digit margins -- right here at Little Caesars Arena. They’ve dropped 4.5 games out of the playoff picture in the East. They’re also in the midst of a brutal scheduling run, playing their eighth game in 14 days with a pair of back-2-backs in the mix. This is a tired team, lacking in confidence and lacking much of a home court edge these days. Until starting point guard Reggie Jackson returns or head coach Stan Van Gundy gets fired, there’s absolutely no reason to expect any switch to get flipped on in Detroit.

At least Van Gundy is being honest about what’s going on: "I think the biggest thing is right now, we're not giving ourselves much of a chance to play well because we're playing so frustrated right now. Frustrated with the referees, frustrated even more by the ball not going into the basket. We're a very frustrated group right now, it's very hard to play like that…. We can never find more than one or two guys that are making shots. I mean you look at (Monday), not to single them out, but our bench is just struggling. I mean, really struggling. The ball didn't go in at all."

Bench struggles are a nightmare for any team playing the very deep Raptors these days, as Toronto’s second unit continues to dominate on a nightly basis. Toronto’s HUGE bench edge was on full display last week at the Air Canada Centre; a 123-94 blowout in which the Raptors bench was +22 vs. the Pistons bench. The Raptors depth is elite, plain and simple – that’s how they have a winning mark(both SU and ATS) on the second night of back-2-backs this year.

I want the veteran Raptors on the road: 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six tries, cashing at nearly a 60% clip on the highway for the full season. And I want them against a Pistons team they have owned: 8-2 ATS on their last ten trips to Detroit; 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four tries against Stan Van Gundy. Chalk worth laying!

Looks like the NBA reached out to the Chicago Bulls about some of the painfully obvious tank-esque lineups they've been using. The Bulls countered by saying some of their vets need some rest. Since the All-Star break, the Bulls are 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS. Their lone win came against fellow tankee, Dallas.

"After the All-Star break, we had communication with the league office about Robin and Justin's roles," said Bulls executive vice president John Paxson. "After healthy dialogue, the league determined that their situations fall into the 'player rest' policy. We respect the communication and cooperative dialogue with the league and will adhere to their recommendations going forward."

Pretty interesting to see 11-7 Stanford laying -9 vs. 2-16 California and then 8-10 Arizona State laying -7 vs. 8-10 Colorado. The Sun Devils' statistical profile (+0.02 points per possession) within the PAC-12 is a tad stronger than 8-10. And certainly stronger than that of Colorado (-0.05 ppp). But in watching both squads and looking at this matchup through the lense of a "one game" scenario, I have a difficult time seeing seven points worth of difference. The Buffaloes won the first meeting in Boulder, 90-81 in overtime. In the second meeting, ASU returned the favor with an 80-66 win in Tempe. It should be noted that Colorado led that game with 10 minutes to go but simply wore down; likely a result from playing the dreaded second game of a Thursday-Saturday PAC-12 road trip. Overall, Arizona State's power rating is still boosted by one of the best non-conference showings in the country thanks to wins over Xavier and Kansas. But over the course of an 18-game conference slate, the Sun Devils were far from dominant. Of their eight victories, three came against bottom feeders Cal and Washington State. They also slipped past Utah by three, Oregon State by two and USC by two. And they caught UCLA in an optimal spot as the Bruins beat Arizona in Tucson on a Thursday before losing in Tempe on Saturday, 88-79. Seven of Colorado's 10 PAC-12 losses came by double-digits but the Buffs also showed capable with a sweep of UCLA and a home win over Arizona. With four spread covers in 18 tries in PAC-12 play, Arizona State has consistently been overvalued in the betting markets. On a neutral floor, I'm comfortable taking the points with an underdog that while flawed, should be able to stick around.

The Chicago Blackhawks are not the better of these two teams nor are they in a quality scheduling spot for this matchup against the Colorado Avalanche and that has me backing the road underdog in this matchup. Colorado is in a battle for one of the two Wildcard playoff spots in the Western Conference and are in need of victories at this stage of the season. The Avalanche have won three of their last four games and the only loss came to the defending Western Conference champs Nashville 4-3 in OT on Sunday afternoon. Nathan MacKinnon is in the midst of a career season with the Colorado Avalanche. MacKinnon has put up six goals and six assists during his five game point streak to boost his NHL best individual scoring average to 1.35 points per game. He’s already set career highs in goals and points and this Colorado team pretty much goes as their star Nathan MacKinnon does who forms a dynamic top line alongside Mikko Rantanen and captain Gabriel Landeskog. Colorado has also received some solid secondary scoring contributions from Matt Nieto who has goals in three straight games for the Avs. They’ve also gotten solid goaltending from the recently returning Semyon Varlamov who has allowed 2 goals or fewer in three of his last four starts between the pipes. Chicago hasn’t played a home game since February 23rd as they have been on the road for quite some time and this will be their 4th game in 6 nights and the Blackhawks are 4-12 in their last 16 games overall and also 3-8 in their last 11 home games here at the United Center. Their goaltending is simply not reliable these days with the combination of J.F. Berube and Anton Forsberg struggling with consistency in their performances as they try to fill the void left by the injury to Chicago’s #1 goaltender Corey Crawford. Colorado has won two straight head-to-head encounters against Chicago and I think they are poised to make it three straight wins over the Hawks tonight.

NBA Handicapping: How tanking teams fare against the spread

It's going to be fun tracking this year's NBA Tank-a-thon. There are currently eight teams that in theory have incentive to tank. The Nets and Lakers technically don't qualify due to other teams owning their respective first round picks. We know these teams will being trying to craft ways to lose but what we're interested in is how they fare against the spread. We'll be keeping tabs on it throughout the remainder of the regular season in the Sportsmemo Posting Forum.

NBA Handicapping: With no reason to tank, Lakers have been great to bettors

With no reason to tank, the Los Angeles Lakers have been the hottest ATS team in the NBA over the last two months. Since January 7, the Lakers are 17-7 SU and 18-6 ATS. We saw a somewhat similar situation last year with the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets won half of their games the last month of the season; a respectable 10-11 SU and impressive 15-6 ATS. The Lakers are +2 home underdogs vs. Portland tonight.

“They’re growing up really quickly,” Coach Luke Walton said. “We see it happening and we’re excited about it. But the fact they just keep finding a way, it takes a team that believes in each other to do what they’ve done.”

“It means that we’re moving on to the right direction,” Kuzma said. “Means that we’re growing as a group. It’s been a long season, up and down. From losing nine straight to being one of the hottest teams in the league right now.”

Utah went into the All-Star break on a season high ten game winning streak. They’ve come out of the break with some real clunkers, blown off the floor in a 19-point home loss to the Blazers, unable to extend their margin against the hapless Mavericks and struggling throughout an 11-point home loss to the Rockets.

Big man Derrick Favors, following the latest loss: “I definitely think there’s some rust from the all-star break. But it’s easy to fix. We have to improve on communication, on both ends of the floor. We have to improve on little things. But all of our issues, they are easy to fix.”

I concur wholeheartedly. Utah’s defense ranks #2 in the NBA since the All Star Break, allowing just 96.5 PP/100. But their offense has struggled mightily, just 90.7 PP/100; dead last in the NBA during that span. A big problem has been their inability to handle the basketball, dead last in the NBA in turnover percentage since the Break.

First, I don’t expect this to be a long term problem for the Jazz. Head coach Quin Synder, following the loss to Houston: “Ultimately in some of these situations, guys just really have to concentrate while they’re on the floor. The kind of drills you do not to turn the ball over are very mundane. We’ll do them, but more than anything, it’s just a mindset that we have to be tougher.”

Second, the Jazz are facing the ideal elixir for a struggling offense – playing Minnesota on the second night of back-2-backs. The T-wolves have not developed defensively as anticipated in the Tom Thibodeau era; and it’s not likely to get better with Jimmy Butler sitting on the sidelines in street clothes. Coming off another ugly second half at Portland last night (allowing 64 points after allowing only 44 in the first half), it’s hard for this bettor to picture Minnesota stepping up defensively tonight.

Lastly, from a spot perspective, this one really stands out for the Jazz. They know they haven’t played well since the break, and they’ve been off since Monday at home, going through a heavy practice routine. Expect that extra prep time to pay dividends for Jazz supporters tonight! Take the Jazz.