GOP grows confident in Senate chances as Dems figure out how to deploy Obama—Club for Growth poll finds Amash with big lead in MI-03 primary—Dueling newspaper endorsements in FL-13

By EMILY SCHULTHEIS

02/10/2014 05:55 AM EST

By Emily Schultheis (eschultheis@politico.com; Twitter: @emilyrs)

With Jose DelReal

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THE BIG PICTURE—GOP GROWING CONFIDENT IN SENATE CHANCES: POLITICO’s James Hohmann reports this morning on how, for Republicans looking at their Senate chances this fall, the tide seems to have turned: “Worries last fall that the party would pay a heavy price at the ballot box for forcing the government to shut down have faded as quickly as attention has shifted to frustration with the health care law. No one is saying that the party has solved its underlying problems — deep distrust between the establishment and tea party wings, and the disconnect with young and minority voters that was on display in 2012. And Republicans were similarly optimistic in 2010 and 2012 about retaking the Senate until poor candidates blew winnable races. But there’s a palpable sense of optimism that 2014 will be the GOP’s year.” http://politi.co/1bDYKGt

AND—DEMS DON’T WANT OBAMA ON THE TRAIL: The White House is working to figure out how to deploy a president who’s highly unpopular in many of the states that will determine Senate control. POLITICO’s Isaac Dovere, Manu Raju and Katie Glueck: “Obama’s unpopularity could cost Democrats the Senate, but vulnerable incumbents need the full resources of the White House to hang onto the majority. So the president and party leadership are exploring how to deploy Obama and his team in a way that minimizes complications for Democrats in places like Colorado, Georgia or Kentucky where his polls are underwater. The White House also needs to buck the historic trend of the president’s party losing seats in the midterm election of his second term. The president has committed to half a dozen Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee fundraisers ... He’s also pledged to attend fundraisers for the Senate Majority PAC. Vice President Joe Biden, first lady Michelle Obama and former President Bill Clinton will hit the road instead. Democrats hope Hillary Clinton — whose office didn’t respond to requests for comment — will campaign as well.” http://politi.co/1bDZwmV

FIRST IN SCORE—CLUB POLL FINDS AMASH CRUSHING ELLIS: A new poll commissioned by the conservative Club for Growth finds GOP Rep. Justin Amash with a big lead over his primary challenger Brian Ellis in Michigan’s 3 rd district. In a head-to-head ballot matchup, Amash leads Ellis by 48 points: he takes 60 percent in the poll, compared with 12 percent for Ellis (and 28 percent who were undecided). The Club endorsed Amash last November, and its super PAC, Club for Growth Action, has put $200,000 behind ads attacking Ellis in the district. Ellis’s negatives show it: despite having low name ID, Ellis’s unfavorables are surprisingly high. He’s viewed unfavorably by 21 percent of those surveyed, compared with just 8 percent who view him favorably. (Forty-six percent say they have no opinion and 25 percent haven’t heard of him.) Full results of the poll, conducted by Basswood Research: http://bit.ly/1bDZT0J

As the Star-Ledger airs its regrets, California Democrats start picking a Waxman successor and the race for San Diego comes to a close, here’s POLITICO’s Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 267.

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Good Monday morning and welcome to Morning Score. As always, send your tips, thoughts, and suggestions to eschultheis@politico.com or tweet them to @emilyrs.

FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD—

1) Will either Alex Sink or David Jolly get any big endorsements or new outside help in the race for Florida’s 13 th?

2) What kind of reception does Chris Christie get on the rest of his fundraising tour?

STAR-LEDGER ON CHRISTIE ENDORSEMENT—‘WE BLEW THIS ONE’: In the wake of the Bridgegate scandal, the Newark Star-Ledger laments its decision to endorse New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie for reelection last fall: “Yes, we knew Christie was a bully. But we didn’t know his crew was crazy enough to put people’s lives at risk in Fort Lee as a means to pressure the mayor. We didn’t know he would use Hurricane Sandy aid as a political slush fund. And we certainly didn’t know that Hoboken Mayor Dawn Zimmer was sitting on a credible charge of extortion by Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno.” http://bit.ly/1lSuv8u

MORE—The four GOP candidates for governor in Illinois, where Christie is raising RGA money on Tuesday, aren’t planning to attend the fundraiser: http://bit.ly/1lSyCl1

SAN DIEGO MAYOR’S RACE IN A DEAD HEAT: San Diego’s mayoral race is looking closer than ever—and there’s only a day left until Election Day. A new poll from the San Diego Union-Tribune/10News finds Republican Kevin Faulconer at 47 percent, in a statistical dead heat with Democrat David Alvarez at 46 percent. (The margin of error on the poll is 4 percent.) The poll’s toplines are the same as one conducted in early December, just after the two candidates made it to the runoff ( http://bit.ly/1jpoVZx). The San Diego race has been making national headlines lately—enough so that Alvarez, who would be the first Hispanic mayor of the city, got an endorsement from President Obama this weekend. http://bit.ly/1iKfosi

DUELING ENDORSEMENTS IN FL-13: With just over a month to go until the special election in Florida’s 13 th district, Democrat Alex Sink and Republican David Jolly each won their share of newspaper endorsements this weekend. The Tampa Bay Times backed Sink, saying she’s better on the issues: “Sink has never been terribly comfortable on the campaign trail, and Jolly is more polished in his campaign sound bites. But there is no comparison when it comes to substance,” the paper wrote ( http://bit.ly/1bE0Rde). The Tampa Tribune, though, chose Jolly “because of his experience working with Young and his more conservative views.” http://bit.ly/1bE17c9

CALIFORNIA STATE DEMS CHOOSE LIEU FOR WAXMAN SEAT: At a weekend pre-endorsement meeting, the California Democratic Party strongly backed state Sen. Ted Lieu for retiring Rep. Henry Waxman’s seat. He got 59 votes to former LA Controller Wendy Greuel’s 7, bringing Liu’s vote total to 73 percent and making him likely to win the state party’s endorsement. Though the race saw initial interest from a whole host of Democratic pols, Liu and Greuel are the only two big-name candidates who’ve actually entered the race thus far. Greuel got the backing of the pro-Democratic group EMILY’s List last week, so even if she doesn’t get the state party’s endorsement she won’t be without outside help. (Other news out of the meeting: in CA-17, Rep. Mike Honda’s campaign will announce later this morning that Honda received 92 percent of the votes in his district from state party members in his race against primary challenger Ro Khanna.) http://lat.ms/1bDWTBA

2012 MEETS 2016—THE DRAW OF ROMNEY’S FUNDRAISING BASE: In case you missed it, POLITICO’s Ken Vogel looks at the huge draw of Mitt Romney’s fundraising network for 2014 and 2016 GOPers: “Candidates and committees in 2013 paid Romney’s still idling campaign at least $675,000 to rent its fundraising lists, while prospective presidential candidates like Govs. Scott Walker and Chris Christie have cozied up to Romney’s fundraisers and donors in closed-door meetings and fundraisers. Romney himself quietly slipped into Manhattan in December to headline a big-donor dinner for the RNC, where he was a huge hit, sources tell POLITICO. And last month, Romney, for the first time as an ex-candidate, signed a fundraising letter sent to the Romney for President national direct mail list on letterhead bearing Romney’s name asking for contributions to another candidate — his 2012 vice presidential pick, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, who is often mentioned as a possible 2016 contender.” http://politi.co/1lSC5jr

ACROSS THE MAP—Here are Score’s top quick takes from races around the country:

-FL-26: House Majority PAC is going on the air to defend Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia, who’s getting bombarded with TV ads by the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. http://bit.ly/1lSxKge

-IL-13: Democratic candidate George Gollin, looking to go up against GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in the general election, likens his own campaign to the 1980 “Miracle on Ice” in his first TV ad: http://bit.ly/1lSCtOM

-NY-21: Republican committee chairs in the 21st Congressional District endorsed Elise Stefanik in the race for the seat. http://bit.ly/1lS9meF

-MT-AL: Ryan Zinke, one of the GOP candidates for Montana’s open at-large House seat, released a web video this weekend on his time as a Navy SEAL: http://bit.ly/1lSAHNK

GOVERNORS—

-PA-Gov: Democratic Party state committee members voted on Saturday to endorse a gubernatorial candidate in the crowded primary, but none cleared the required two-thirds threshold: http://bit.ly/1iNy76m (Plus, The Philadelphia Inquirer says GOP Gov. Tom Corbett is showing a softer side on the campaign trail: http://bit.ly/1lSDfLU)

-MA-Gov: All five Democrats in the governor's race say they reject the death penalty for Boston Marathon bombing suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev. http://bo.st/1bE4u2O

CODA—QUOTE OF THE DAY: “It's important that people think that their government not be used to bully them.” —Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, in a not-so-subtle dig at Chris Christie http://bit.ly/1lSGOBB

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Authors:

About The Author

Emily Schultheis is a national political reporter and author of POLITICO Pro’s daily Morning Score tipsheet. She joined POLITICO as a 2010 summer intern, then filed stories on the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate and gubernatorial races and the 2012 election throughout her senior year at the University of Pennsylvania. Since arriving full-time at POLITICO in summer 2011, Schultheis spent the 2012 cycle writing for the “Burns & Haberman” blog and traveling the country with different presidential candidates. She took over Morning Score in January 2013.

In summer 2013, Schultheis was one of ten American journalists selected for the Arthur F. Burns Fellowship, an international reporting program for young journalists. She spent two months covering the German election in Berlin for POLITICO and SPIEGEL International.

Schultheis began covering politics for The Daily Pennsylvanian, Penn’s student-run newspaper, in 2008, trailing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton throughout Philadelphia during the lead-up to the Pennsylvania primary. Her work has also appeared in the Philadelphia Daily News, Philadelphia City Paper and UWIRE’s Youth Vote ‘08 blog. She graduated summa cum laude from Penn with a degree in English literature in May 2011.

Schultheis, originally from the San Francisco Bay area, now lives in Arlington.