Trump's attack on 'sanctuary cities' could cost New York dearly

Donald Trump threatens to cut off aid to cities that shelter undocumented immigrants.

Donald Trump could unleash a huge budget crisis in his hometown if he makes good on his threat to cut off aid to cities that help shelter large numbers of undocumented immigrants.

"Block funding for sanctuary cities. We block the funding. No more funding," the Republican presidential candidate said in his speech Wednesday night in Phoenix. "We will end the sanctuary cities that have resulted in so many needless deaths. Cities that refuse to cooperate with federal authorities will not receive taxpayer dollars."

"Sanctuary cities" refers to places that have adopted laws banning the use of city money to enforce immigration statutes. They also generally refuse to cooperate with federal immigration officials. In 2014, Mayor Bill de Blasio signed into law a bill making New York a sanctuary city. Sanctuary cities have become a major issue in the presidential campaign, all the more so after an undocumented immigrant, Juan Francisco Lopez-Sanchez, shot and murdered 32-year-old Kathryn Steinle in San Francisco last year.

It isn't clear whether Trump plans to cut off all federal aid to sanctuary cities or just the portion that is used to provide services to undocumented immigrants. A spokeswoman didn't respond to a request for clarification.

Trump's hometown would have much to lose if the candidate carried out his threat. Children, in particular, would be harmed.

On Thursday, Mayor de Blasio defended the city's undocumented immigrants. "These are our fellow New Yorkers, we're going to respect them, protect them, they're part of our communities," he said on WNYC. The mayor has created a city ID-card program that offers holders, including undocumented immigrants, access to government services and bank accounts.

Every year, New York gets more than $6 billion in federal aid, according to figures prepared by the city Comptroller's office. Federal aid as a portion of the city budget has declined steadily over the years, from 17% of the city budget back in 1980 to 11% in 2000 to 9% today.

This aid helps pay for things like public safety, the judiciary and transportation. But over the years, a majority of it—about 70%—has gone to three city agencies: the Department of Education, the Human Resources Administration and the Administration for Children's Services.

The single largest source of federal aid to the city, at $1.4 billion, goes to the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program that provides cash and other help to the poor. The second-biggest source of federal aid is for Title I programs in schools, such as free or reduced-priced lunches. The feds also contribute $477 million to subsidize preschool and child care for poorer families, according to the Independent Budget Office.

Much of the rest of the $6 billion in federal money is split among the Department of Housing Preservation and Development, the Department of Homeless Services and the Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The feds also send large sums to help pay for Medicaid. Most of that money flows directly to health-care providers rather than to the city.

If Trump further clarified his remarks to mean only federal aid to the city that helps undocumented immigrants, the city could still stand to lose hundreds of millions of dollars. The best guess is there are 574,000 undocumented immigrants living in New York—or about 7% of the total population. If federal aid is cut in proportion to their numbers, the city could be out about $440 million annually, a rounding error in a city with a $78 billion annual budget.

However, undocumented immigrants tend to be quite poor, with 30% living in poverty, according to city figures, compared to 21% for the overall population. They rely heavily on certain kinds of federal assistance—free school lunches, for instance. If Trump cut this kind of aid the pain to New York would be substantially higher than $440 million.

If Trump decides to go further and cut off all federal aid of any kind to cities that offer sanctuary to undocumented immigrants, New York would face a more than $6 billion drop in federal public safety, transportation, housing and other aid. Such a cut would be painful for the city and could only be plugged by sharply cutting services or imposing significant tax increases on residents and businesses.

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