Ottawa has a choice to make in the next few months: Should it continue to elect its mayor and council using first past the post, or move to a ranked-ballot system beginning in 2018? It might sound like a dry, administrative question, but its effects could be dramatic: the city could easily end up with a different mayor under one system than the other.

To see why, we need to go back before the Jim Watson era. In a ranked-ballot system, if no candidate gets more than half the votes, low-scoring candidates are eliminated and their supporters’ second choices are distributed until someone gets over the 50-per-cent threshold. Watson got nearly half the votes in 2010, despite running against an incumbent and 18 other people. In the less crowded race in 2014, the incumbent Watson got 76 per cent of the votes. Watson likely would have won those elections under either system.

Go back to 2006, though, and the potential for significant effects becomes clear. As the campaign heated up, there were four main candidates, all of whom were serious contenders.

Bob Chiarelli was a two-term incumbent. Terry Kilrea had come in a strong second before against Chiarelli. Alex Munter was a high-profile councillor; early polls put him as the front-runner. Larry O’Brien was a businessman who promised to bring an outsider’s perspective to city hall.

If Ottawa had been using a ranked ballot in 2006, Kilrea’s decision to drop out of the race would not have been so important. Under a ranked ballot, vote-splitting doesn’t happen in the same way, so if Kilrea had come in fourth, his supporters’ second choices would have been assigned to others – likely O’Brien and Chiarelli.

O’Brien came in first place in 2006, with 47 per cent. That’s not far off the 49 per cent Watson received in 2010 – but the rest of the field was much more scattered against Watson. In 2010, the second and third place candidates were O’Brien (24 per cent) and Clive Doucet (15 per cent). It’s hard to see how any candidate could have got to 50 per cent ahead of Watson.

In 2006, the second-place finishers were Munter (36 per cent) and Chiarelli (16 per cent), both of whom were to the left of O’Brien and appealed to voters looking for political experience. It’s possible – although far from certain – that Munter could have got enough second-choice votes from the Chiarelli supporters to edge over the 50-per-cent threshold.

During the final months of the 2006 campaign, everyone knew the vote was going to split three ways, but no one really knew how and in whose favour. Some early polls had Munter and Chiarelli neck and neck, and O’Brien only pulled into the lead near the end of the campaign. It was a campaign in which many thought “I prefer X but might vote Y to keep Z from getting into office” – and X, Y and Z were different for different voters.

Ranked ballots allow voters to express those sorts of preferences. They emphasize conscience over strategy. They reduce the pressure on vote-splitting candidates to drop out. Theoretically, they reduce negative campaigning, because everybody wants to be palatable to the other candidates’ supporters.

Ranked balloting also tends to favour an inoffensive candidate – the kind of candidate who is everybody’s second choice – over a controversial frontrunner with the support of a passionate minority. We’ve seen this happen many times in political leadership campaigns that use run-off voting. Whether that’s a good effect or a bad effect is arguable, but it’s a significant difference from first past the post.

Ontario has given its municipalities the option to adopt ranked ballots as early as the election of 2018. Ottawa staff are compiling information on it now. If this is something you want council to consider seriously, or not, now’s the time to let your councillor know.

Comments

We encourage all readers to share their views on our articles and blog posts. We are committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion, so we ask you to avoid personal attacks, and please keep your comments relevant and respectful. If you encounter a comment that is abusive, click the "X" in the upper right corner of the comment box to report spam or abuse. We are using Facebook commenting. Visit our FAQ page for more information.

Almost Done!

Postmedia wants to improve your reading experience as well as share the best deals and promotions from our advertisers with you. The information below will be used to optimize the content and make ads across the network more relevant to you. You can always change the information you share with us by editing your profile.

By clicking "Create Account", I hearby grant permission to Market to use my account information to create my account.

I also accept and agree to be bound by Postmedia's Terms and Conditions with respect to my use of the Site and I have read and understand Postmedia's Privacy Statement. I consent to the collection, use, maintenance, and disclosure of my information in accordance with the Postmedia's Privacy Policy.

Postmedia wants to improve your reading experience as well as share the best deals and promotions from our advertisers with you. The information below will be used to optimize the content and make ads across the network more relevant to you. You can always change the information you share with us by editing your profile.

By clicking "Create Account", I hearby grant permission to Postmedia to use my account information to create my account.

I also accept and agree to be bound by Postmedia's Terms and Conditions with respect to my use of the Site and I have read and understand Postmedia's Privacy Statement. I consent to the collection, use, maintenance, and disclosure of my information in accordance with the Postmedia's Privacy Policy.