The numbers of EV options will more than double with the release of the 2013 Ford Focus Electric (pictured), the 2013 Toyota Prius Plug-In, and the 2013 Tesla Model S. (Source: Treehugger)

Charging stations, like ECOtality's BLINK charger, are being deployed across America as well. (Source: Tech Fever)

History cautions us that the EV movement may not be out of the woods yet -- the most iconic EV of the 1990s, GM's EV1 quickly ended up crushed in the scrap heap (pictured). This time around things may work out differently, though. (Source: Treehugger)

EV movement has stalled several times, historically, industry hopes to avoid another letdown

Researchers and market advocates in a recentDetroit Newsinterviewargue that the electric
vehicle movement is reaching the point where it will become an unstoppable
force on the market before. Describes, Genevieve Cullen, the vice
president of the Electric Drive Transportation Association, an advocacy group for
electric cars, "We think that increasing electric is inevitable. The speed
is variable."

I. The EV Movement has Faded Before -- Will
History Repeat Itself?

The question of whether the electrification
movement will stick this time around is a compelling one.

In the early 1900s electric vehicles were
extremely popular, outselling gas vehicles in some areas until the advent of
mass production. With the arrival of modern engine designs, electric
vehicles quickly faded from the mind of the auto industry and the public.

In the 1960s interest in electric cars once again
rose, with concepts like the 1967 Comuta from Ford Motor Company (F).
These efforts failed to gain traction, though. In the 1990s there
was yet another electric revivalist movement with General Motors Company's (GM)
EV1. And yet again EVs were met with apathy and a hasty demise.

Today EVs are once more on the market, with the2012
Chevy Voltfrom GM (a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; PHEV) and
2012 Nissan (NSANF)
LEAF EV (a battery-electric vehicle; BEV). However, thesales
aren't looking great, largely due to the manufacturers' inability to put
out significant volume to the public.

But many are convinced that this time EVs may hang
in there. Oil is off highs of $147 USD/barrel reached in July 2008.
But it's still relatively high, hovering at around $100 USD/barrel.

The real key to increasing promise for the mass
market is dropping batter prices and increased battery production.
Analysts estimate that in 2011 50,000 EV batteries will be produced and
in only three years -- by 2014 -- that number will rise to 500,000 batteries a
year.

Meanwhile costs are dropping. Eric Isaacs,
the director of the Argonne National Laboratory -- a government research
institution located outside of Chicago, Illinois -- states, "The question
is: Can these guys make a battery that is five times cheaper? I think yes. I
think we can do it."

One major obstacle to the fledgling movement is
the availability of charging stations. EVs, like gas vehicles need to be
"fueled up". Standard chargers can take hours to completely
charge a vehicle. A dedicated high-voltage charging station can mostly
charge a vehicle within a half or so.

The need for chargers is more critical when you
consider that the "tank" on EVs (battery) only holds one or two days
worth of "fuel" (charge) for the average commuter.

Two of the leading firms include SemaConnect and
ECOtality Inc. (ECTY).
SemaConnect was installing chargers in Maryland this week.
Meanwhile ECOtality in recent weeks has installed its BLINK charging
stations in California, Washington state, Oregon and Arizona.

III. The EV Outlook

There are telltale signs that the new EV trend may
be a bit different. Anecdotal examples can be found in the retail and
fleet markets.

Fleet giant Hertz is offering rentable EVs in New
York City and will soon be offering them in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco,
Calif.

States Company spokeswoman Paula Rivera,
"Currently, we have a few dozen vehicles. By the end of the year we
anticipate having hundreds of them available. We do view this as the future of
transportation, and see adoption coming not only from having the cars
available, but the ecosystem to charge them. ... As the ecosystem builds out,
our fleet will increase."

Similarly, electronics retail giant Best Buy says
it is considering selling recharging stations and is training its "Geek
Squad" service team members to ready them for the possibility. Chad
Bell, the senior director of Best Buy's New Business Solutions Group states,
"We dedicated a significant amount of resources to help this technology
come to market. We think these (home charging-stations) will be purchased and
sold in the future similar to how electronics are sold today."

Some analysts aremore
pessimisticabout the movement. Still it's hard to argue that
the industry isn't showing an awful lot of interest in it, this time around.

To borrow a chemistry analogy, it appears that EVs
are currently are entering a transition state. They aren't over the
energy barrier (sales hump) yet, but they may soon get there. If they can
keep up their momentum, perhaps the EV movement can finally survive and thrive.

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Who cares that it takes 10 hours to recharge when most cars are parked for long periods at a time. Imagine if all the money invested in gas stations and associated infrastructure was instead invested in charging stations. We have electricity supply everywhere. The problem is how do we generate enough with so many brain-dead green terrorists opposing everything that makes sense.

I think instead of creating charging stations, all manufacturers should decide on a standard modular battery form factor (and battery bay access), and have battery stations instead of charging stations. This way, some kind of heavy lift machine can swap out batteries for charged ones quickly.

Exactly, but discussions are usually centered around charging stations. Of course, it will take a lot of co-operation from different car manufacturers to get this to work. And the swap station itself can be powered by a small local power plant, maybe a fuel cell based one. This will be an alternative to making fuel cell vehicles.

Yeah lets build 1.5x the number of batteries we need. That's going to happen. Who's going to pay for all those extra batteries? The materials for said batteries are already in high demand and short supply. And you want to build even more?

quote: Yeah lets build 1.5x the number of batteries we need. That's going to happen. Who's going to pay for all those extra batteries? The materials for said batteries are already in high demand and short supply. And you want to build even more?

It is called investing.. there are these groups of people with money who look for ways to make more money on new ventures. If the auto industry gave even a hint they would standardize on swappable packs there will be tons of investors ready to jump on the concept and manufacturers to build the cells. Who pays for the strategic oil reserves we maintain here in the US or all that gasoline sitting in tanks waiting to be sold..

And no there is plenty of lithium, carbon, silicon, etc. for making those newer lithium batteries like A123 cells. The cells used in laptops tend to use colbalt and be a tad to touchy for vehicles.

In the end the market will decide if allowed, I expect there will be many failures and suprises along the way hopefully leading to something more practical than most of the silly concept cars I see out of "Detroit".

It's called reality. When people buy a car, it comes with a battery. People wouldn't like the idea of giving that battery away to someone else in exchange for a battery that they know nothing about. They bought a car with a new battery, after their first "fill-up", they don't know what they have.

Furthermore, the battery packs weigh over a hundred pounds. Where are you going to put it so its easy to get in and out of every car quickly and safely? Also what about size? A bigger vehicle will have a bigger battery. Now you're talking about having tons (both literally and figuratively) of batteries on hand to be available to replace in cars and different sizes depending on the class of vehicle. Fill up stations would turn into warehouses.

It isn't feasible no matter who would interested in investing. The costs are in the trillions. Tell me where that capital exists. It doesn't. Not even in the make believe money land of the common liberal.

One problem would be that most cars would need to be very similar in shape and size, though that could be overcome I guess. Another is what happens if you get your nice new battery swapped out and the one you get turns out to be a dud that leaves you stranded on the side of the road? Also unless they can increase the range on these cars then these swap stations need to be placed fairly close together to cover everyone, unless you want EVs to be restricted to certain locations.

We haven't been able to get cell phone companies to standardize batteries, it will probably be even harder to get car companies to do so.

How close to one another are gas stations? Also, I think that if the industry went this way, then the battery packs would be much smaller and different vehicles would carry different quantities.

I still think that this sort of concept is best suited for things like city buses. I see commuting to a filling station as one of the many negatives of ICE cars but in the short term it could be the only viable solution for EVs.

This is a great idea for a bus service I think. Just change the battery at the depot.

For commuter cars, I think it has its advantages but it takes away the convenience of not having to go a particular spot just to recharge. If implemented though, long distance journeys would be feasible.

With a good infrastructure, a lot of the current EV's deficiencies could be improved until the technology matures and takes care of itself.