Upon Further Review 2012: Defense vs Purdue

Formation notes: Michigan set to blowing up Purdue's screen game by sliding their linebackers over to any trips formation like so:

The guy nose to nose with the WR on the LOS is Jake Ryan. I called this "4-3 even slide." Here's a closer look on another play:

Kovacs would come down on the other side to play tiny linebacker.

A couple of times Purdue went to formations like this and Michigan split their linebackers way out wide:

Yeah that looks super-vulnerable to the run but Purdue couldn't get any creases so it's not. Nice trick to put five in the box with two deep safeties and not get gashed.

Note that M spent most of the game in an even front instead of an under. This appears to be their default against spreads.

Substitution notes: Secondary was as usual: Taylor/Floyd/Kovacs/Gordon with Avery coming in for nickel packages. Morgan and Demens got almost every meaningful snap; Ryan saw most but Cam Gordon did get a couple drives.

The line was more Washington/Campbell regular stuff than the nickel business that didn't work so well against the UMass spread.

Shoe shoe.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O25

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

4-3 under

Pass

4

Quick hitch

Ryan

4

M ends up way spread out by Purdue in a double stack-ish formation. Purdue goes with a dink pass that Ryan(+0.5, tackling +1) is close enough to get a no-YAC tackle on, but only just. He would have delayed the receiver long enough for the D to rally even if he hadn't managed to get the receiver down.

O29

2

6

Shotgun trips bunch TE

4-3 even slide

Run

N/A

Zone belly

Kovacs

5

M moves Ryan all the way out to the hash where the bunch is and has Demens a bit further inside; Morgan is the only actual LB in the box; Kovacs overhangs to the short side. Purdue tries to take advantage by running a belly zone at the backside. Clark contains; give. Campbell(-0.5) gives a little too much ground and Kovacs(-0.5) is hesitant when he's got a free run at the ballcarrier—seems like he doesn't entirely trust Clark, which fair enough. Clark comes down to tackle with help from Kovacs near the sticks.

O34

3

1

I-Form Big

4-4 under

Run

N/A

Pin and pull counter

Demens

0

Fullback goes away from the play and RB takes a counter step as two linemen pull around the other way and TerBush pitches. This probably should have worked but one of the pulling linemen goes for Taylor instead of looking for a linebacker flowing from the inside. The other blocks Ryan(+0.5) who sheds quickly and comes upfield but does get in a shoestring tackle attempt that helps make the RB an easy target; Demens(+1) did flow quickly and get to the hole to tackle(+1) short of the sticks. Mostly just a Purdue screwup but M did execute some.

Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 13 min 1st Q. See you in ten minutes, D.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O32

1

10

Shotgun 2TE

4-3 under

Pass

4

Sack

Ryan

-11

Clark flares out just as the field WR goes in motion, which gives M more of a 3-4 look but the DEs are tucked inside. Anyway, he's upfield to deal with the potential-end around on the snap. It's play action; no one open as Gordon(+1, cover +1) pulls up and moves out on the TE drag coming across the field. Ryan(+2, pressure +2) is unblocked backside and making for the QB all the way. He has the agility and discipline to not overrun the QB and makes a massive sack as Terbush can't risk the throw to the covered safety valve. RPS +3—this was dead to rights.

O21

2

21

Shotgun trips bunch

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Counter trap

Morgan

10

Roh(+0.5) actually does a good job to not run way upfield once the G over him releases and comes down on a the trapping OL, which forces the RB to go outside of him. Demens(-0.5) and Morgan(-1) do not take that opportunity. Morgan doesn't read the G pull right over him and gets locked out by a tackle releasing. Demens goes upfield of his blocker and doesn't make a play; probably not relevant because Morgan didn't read it but still bad. Kovacs fills for his only tackle of the day(!).

O31

3

11

Shotgun 3-wide

3-3-5 nickel

Pass

4

Rollout hitch

Floyd

Inc

Rollout gets TerBush all day (pressure -2) but no one is open at all (cover +3) and Floyd(+2) is there to break on the ball and get a PBU when TerBush eventually has to pull the trigger on a throw as he nears the chalk.

Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 3 min 1st Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O37

1

10

Shotgun trips

4-3 even slide

Pass

4

Hitch

Floyd

11

Floyd(-1, cover -1) is unable to tackle on this five-yard hitch and turns it into a first down.

O48

1

10

Shotgun double stack

4-3 even split

Pass

4

PA bubble screen

CGordon

3

Ish, anyway. Cam Gordon(+1) is getting blocked by the outside WR in an almost-stacked formation as TerBush throws to the inside guy who is shuffling backwards on the catch. That's one on one with Taylor but Gordon's blown his blocker back and cut off the inside so the WR has nowhere to go and gets sandwiched by Taylor and Gordon after a small gain.

M49

2

7

Shotgun 3-wide

Nickel even

Pass

4

Rollout fly

Beyer

Inc

Beyer(-1, pressure -1) is hacked to the ground by the tailback and just kind of stops there; he didn't get cut, he got CUT. This gives TerBush all day on the edge. Demens is coming up to turn that pressure on and TerBush misses badly on a WR who had an okay gap between Avery and Kovacs. Coverage push; this wasn't too bad in the secondary.

M49

3

7

Shotgun 2-back

Okie two

Pass

5

Hitch

Morgan

5

Slot blitz from Avery plus a hash to hash zone drop from Morgan that he holds up on; notably, this h2h drop features the guy looking all the way. Avery(+0.5, pressure +1) gets in free, forcing a quick throw. Morgan(+0.5) is combining with Gordon(+0.5, cover +1) to box in the obvious hot read from the corner blitz and get the guy down short of the sticks. RPS +1; M got exactly what they wanted on this play.

M44

4

2

Shotgun trips

4-3 even slide

Pass

4

Hitch

Taylor

INT

This should be a five yard completion for the first down, which okay. Terbush throws it high, WR deflects, Taylor(+1) is like okay free touchdown yay. Cover –1.

CGordon(+1) in for Ryan, playing with his hand down. He is upfield on the snap as the T releases downfield and forces a scary pitch that is well behind the RB and almost dropped. RB brings it in, spinning. The spin takes him outside into Floyd(+1), who has set up at the numbers at the LOS and forces it back to the pursuing CGordon, except not actually because the RB runs his face into Floyd's.

O27

2

10

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

4

Hitch

Floyd

11

Another five yard hitch Floyd(-1) is lax on and turns into a larger gain. He's indecisive, taking a couple false steps before attacking. I'm not too mad since getting beat over the top is worse against this flailing O but be there to tackle before the sticks plz.

O38

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Inside zone

Roh

3

Roh(+0.5) holds up pretty dang well to a double for a guy his size at three tech. Clark(+0.5) is unblocked on the backside, keeps contain, and comes down quickly. Washington(+0.5) doesn't really know what's up but has blasted a single block back and will ass tackle if Clark doesn't actually tackle; more to the point there's nothing to burst through because of Washington.

O41

2

7

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

4

Improv

Floyd

7

Floyd(-1) in press along with Avery; they're backed by safety help. Aggressive on the short routes, Terbush finds nothing (cover +2) and rolls. Token pressure from Clark; Terbush does find a WR late, with Floyd getting lax as TerBush rolls out. Get up on your man; he's not going anywhere that close to the sideline.

Cut blocking so they want a quick throw. Ryan(+0.5) and Taylor(+0.5) are all over the routes TerBush wants and then he has to exit pocket posthaste. Roh(+1) avoided that cut and leapt, preventing a throw. Beyer(-1) overruns the QB and lets him outside the pocket, at which point Kovacs(-1) gets beat by the TE for a big gain.

M30

1

10

Shotgun Trips TE

4-3 even slide

Pass

4

Slant

Demens

Inc

Purdue fakes the WR screen Ryan is set to destroy and goes for a short slant behind it; ball is in front of the WR and dropped. Demens(+0.5, cover +1, RPS +1) was right there on a deeper slant and would have likely tackled this for a minimal gain if complete.

M30

2

10

Shotgun trips bunch

3-3-5 nickel

Pass

4

Improv

Gordon

3

Nothing at first(cover +2) as TerBush goes through a couple reads. Internal timer goes off and he starts trying to find a way out of the pocket. Roh(+1) gets pressure(+1), forcing a TerBush throw off the back foot that loops to his WR. He's penned in by three Wolverines and it's third and long. This ball is obviously fumbled but the refs screw it up by calling forward progress. Gordon +1 for the strip, refs –2.

M27

3

7

Shotgun empty

Okie one

Run

N/A

Inverted veer keeper

Morgan

4

Slot comes in motion for the handoff. Okie stuff gets three guys blocking the backside DT as two folks drop to LB depth. Morgan(+1) reads the pull and stands up a pulling G two yards downfield despite having no momentum; Ryan(+1) is unblocked on the backside and has the speed to close and tackle near the LOS; Demens(+0.5) reads it and finishes the play unblocked.

Drive Notes: FG(40), 21-3, 7 min 2nd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O31

1

10

I-Form

4-3 under

Run

N/A

Yakety snap

N/A

-2

Fumbled snap.

O29

2

12

I-Form

4-3 under

Pass

4

Waggle hitch

Floyd

Inc

Again they get the edge (pressure -1) but Roh is pursuing so it's not super easy. Coverage(+3) is excellent downfield for a long time; TerBush finds an open-ish guy that Floyd(+1) is there to break up. PBUs are usually two but this was pretty easy on a stationary WR.

O29

3

12

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

4

Scramble

N/A

1

Michigan looks like they're trying something fancy as both DTs move way way outside, opening up a huge lane for TerBush to step into. He does, and he's looking to find someone downfield when he runs into his own tailback; the delay forces him to start moving again, at which point it's too late for him. Um. Pressure -1, Cover +2? I think we got a little lucky here.

Drive Notes: Punt, 28-3, 2 min 2nd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

M36

1

10

Shotgun 2TE twins

4-3 under

Pass

4

PA WR screen

Kovacs

8

Play action allows Purdue to get a TE out to the edge without drawing LB attention. Kovacs(-1) sucks in a step or two and doesn't read the TE; he gets stalled many yards downfield. Floyd comes up to keep leverage okay. Kovacs does get off the block and Ross starts dancing around, eventually getting stuck(+0.5, tackling +1) by Morgan in space.

M28

2

2

Shotgun 2TE twins

Base 3-4

Pass

4

Bubble screen

Beyer

3

Beyer's(+1) flared out as an OLB type as Michigan goes with more of a 30 look. He's got a blocker he gets outside of, forcing the WR inside of him. Campbell and Morgan are coming out and are now useful because of the leverage but can't cut him off before the sticks. That'll happen.

M25

1

10

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Trap

Morgan

9

Tough to defend this with 5.5 in the box and DTs Black and Roh. Black(-1) gets blown out as CGordon shoots upfield unblocked but also useless; two guys move through the center of the field to find one guy, Morgan(-1), who gets cut really badly. Demens(+0.5, tackling +1) flowed down the line and smashed the TB just as he breaks to the secondary; fortunate. RPS -1.

M16

2

1

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

4

Flare

CGordon

Inc

CGordon gets a hand up but doesn't actually deflect the thing; it's just a crappy pass. I guess he gets +0.5 for maybe making the pass go badly. Taylor was coming up, with indeterminate results if this is complete.

M16

3

1

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Trap

Morgan

3

M slanting, which means the DT Purdue is running at ends up running at the trapping G and kind of seals himself, but at least this time Morgan(+0.5) is moving fast at the snap, knowing the playcall, and ends up in the hole before the tackle coming out on him can block. He can't quite get out there, though, and while he makes the tackle it's not the thumper required to prevent a first down. Demens(+0.5) did a good job to pop a guard releasing and come off to finish the tackle. RPS push; good idea but evidently tough to execute.

M13

1

10

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

4

Slant

Morgan

9

Purdue pulls a guard and Morgan(-1, cover -1) does suck up on it, but I'm not sure I'm even mad. Demens(+0.5) is not coming up and almost drops right into the route, getting a hand out and coming about an inch away from a PBU. Gordon(+1) gets a good tackle(+1) right away.

Roh(+1) bursts upfield and outside of the TE, as he's aligned outside of him and is tough to seal. That blows up any sweep type ideas as he's now cutting off the outside, which is 3 for 1! Morgan(+1) flows, takes on an awkward block by a redirecting G, and those two combine to tackle for no gain. RPS +1. Mattison blew this up with alignment.

Five guys in the box, Purdue wants to test it. Washington(+1) goes boom into the center, driving him back; this picks off the trapping G. Campbell(+0.5) gets into him in the backfield and forces an awkward bounce. Roh(+1) is riding a tackle so he can't get into Demens; as he sees the cutback he releases upfield and makes the tackle for no gain. BWS picture-paged.

O32

2

10

Shotgun trips

3-3-5 nickel

Pass

4

Slant

Floyd

Inc

Credit to Floyd(+2, cover +2) on this one: he is right there on this slant and gets a PBU.

O32

3

10

Shotgun Trips TE

Okie one

Pass

5

Tunnel screen

Avery

3

Clark(+1) reads the tackle releasing and starts moving outside. This doesn't get a tackle in or anything but it does force the WR vertical before he wants to go vertical; Avery(+1) is charging at the WR and tackles after a modest gain. Got lucky, as the tackle coming out should have pounded Avery and then Gordon is the man who is basically the only thing between Purdue and a TD. He probably makes the play but would have been do or die right there.

Drive Notes: Punt, 28-10, 11 min 3rd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O36

1

10

Shotgun trips bunch TE

4-3 even

Pass

4

Rollout hitch

Demens

Inc

Coverage(+2) is good on the rollout. Ryan(+0.5) picks up a flat; Floyd(+0.5) has a deeper route; Demens(+0.5) has a hitch to the inside. Heitzman(+0.5) is delivering nominal pressure, and TerBush eventually chucks it across his body wildly; Demens almost gets a hand on it and likely would if this was more accurate.

O36

2

10

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

4

Slant

Clark

2

Demens(+0.5) seems to have the inside slant; Purdue runs a bubble fake to the outside and Floyd(+1, cover +1) is definitely all over the slant that's supposed to be the gotcha counter. TerBush throws it anyway; Clark(+1) bats it as he is wont to do. Inside slant guy catches it for a few.

O38

3

8

I-Form twins

Nickel even

Pass

4

Rollout dig

Floyd

Inc

Clark is containing but there are three guys on the edge blocking so he's got no shot. This looks like it's designed to suck Michigan to the edge of the field and then hit them back inside as the outside WR runs a dig; Floyd(+2, cover +2) is all over it and gets a diving PBU.

Drive Notes: Punt, 31-10, 5 min 3rd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O23

1

10

Shotgun trips

4-3 even slide

Run

N/A

Power off tackle

Washington

-3

Washington(+1) shoves his man into the backfield and picks off the pulling G. Roh(+1) chucks the tackle trying to block down on him; Demens(+1) beats a WR block; Ryan(+1) does likewise and attacks, getting a diving TFL. If he misses he's still forced the guy upfield and Demens and Gordon will blow him up anyway. Morgan(+0.5) was scraping to the hole if it went further upfield. Ain't nowhere to go.

O20

2

13

Shotgun 2TE twins

Nickel even

Pass

4

Hook and ladder

N/A

20

More like a fake tunnel and ladder but whatever. Okay, they get M. I'm not minusing the D, but this is an RPS -2.

O40

1

10

Shotgun empty

4-3 even

Pass

4

Out

Taylor

14

A five yard out Taylor(-0.5, cover -1) can't tackle on the catch. CGordon(-1, tackling -1) is coming out as the WR turns upfield and overruns it. Gordon fends off a block to slow the guy and gets an ankle tackle as Taylor recovers to tackle.

M46

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Sprint counter

Pipkins

11

Heitzman left unblocked; he flows up to contain the QB. The line hasn't gotten gapped on the backside but there's a big hole between Heitzman and Pipkins(-0.5), who doesn't slow the back...I think he may be right to cut this thing off but I'd like to see him realize where the ball is going faster and at least bother the guy. Demens was pass-dropping; he gets into a blocker and contains about three yards downfield. Morgan(-0.5) went around a blocker upfield and almost almost makes a nice play to hold this down but cannot. Kovacs fills; pile falls past sticks. RPS -1.

M35

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

4-3 even

Pass

4

WR screen

Taylor

2

M shows cover one and that they will send CGordon off the edge. Purdue shows a sweep to the left and just throws it at a single receiver to the right. Taylor(+1, tackling +1) comes up to make a stop after a minimal gain. Beyer flowing out from the line helped, I guess, but not really sure what Purdue is trying to accomplish here.

M33

2

8

Shotgun 3-wide

3-3-5 nickel

Pass

4

Scramble

N/A

6

Again all of the time on the edge. Clark(-1) gets sealed inside, though the RB leading out there is just looking to block. Pressure –2. No one open (cover +3) despite all day, Marve runs for a few.

M27

3

2

Shotgun 2TE tight

4-3 even

Pass

4

TE out

Kovacs

1

Kovacs(+0.5) and Floyd(+0.5, cover +1) are right there on one yard pass and force a fourth down. RPS +1.

M25

4

In

Ace trips

Nickel even

Run

N/A

QB sneak

N/A

1

They get it.

M24

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

4-3 even

Pass

4

Scramble

Beyer

2

Initial read is covered and then Beyer(+0.5) and Campbell(+0.5, pressure +1) collapse the pocket, with Beyer going around the edge and Campbell bulling an interior OL back. Still nobody open(a total over cover +2) as Marve gets the edge; he scrambles for a couple.

M22

2

8

Shotgun trips

4-3 even slide

Pass

4

Throwaway

Morgan

Inc + 11 Pen

Looks like miscommunication but Marve is just throwing this away; his OL cut the interior guys so the WR's route is right. That's a slant that Morgan(+1, cover +1) is going to pick six if thrown. Roh(+0.5) and Beyer(+0.5) are beating guys upfield and meeting at the QB so Marve has to get rid of it. Pressure +1. Washington(-1) gets a personal foul. No idea why, no replay.

M11

1

10

Shotgun 2-back TE

Nickel even

Pass

5

Sack

Ryan

-6

Max pro with two WRs. Marve thinks they're covered(+1) and starts rolling, unwisely, as Ryan(+1) avoids a cut and charges at him. Ryan can't bring him down but does force him to the sideline. Roh(+0.5) pursues fast and finishes forcing him OOB.

M17

2

16

I-Form

4-3 under

Run

N/A

Draw

Roh

-2

Purdue's OL derfs as both guys blocking Roh(+1) let him go and move to the second level. Roh does contain the back and force him back to the rest of his DL; Beyer(+0.5) finishes the tackle.

Ryan and Roh are on the edge here. Ryan goes straight upfield to cut off the outside; Roh starts running straight for the sideline, opening up a lane. Roh(-2) should have let Ryan handle the contain. Gordon comes up to tackle.

Drive Notes: Interception, 34-13, 9 min 4th Q. Rob Henry gets the next drive but M starters are still mostly in so okay.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O27

1

10

Shotgun trips

4-3 even slide

Run

N/A

QB draw

Campbell

-2

Campbell(+1) drives the G back into the intended crease, convincing Henry to go outside, where he and Ojemudia(+1) combine to TFL.

O25

2

12

Shotgun trips

4-3 even slide

Pass

4

Hitch

Demens

5

Five yard route, immediate tackle. Demens +0.5

O30

3

7

Shotgun trips bunch

3-3-5 nickel

Pass

5

TE out

Ojemudia

4

Three man front with two LBs flanking. Ojemudia(+1) swims past a guard, as does Black(+0.5), though Black is not as quick. Ojemudia looks held, no call. QB chucks another short dink route; Floyd(+0.5) there for an immediate tacke. Pressure +1, cover +1.

O34

4

3

Shotgun trips

4-3 even slide

Run

N/A

Inverted veer keeper

-1

Ojemudia(+2) shuffles down a bit, then moves upfield as the back gets there, which causes a pull... and causes the pulling G to go for him. Ojemudia goes upfield of that block and starts making an ankle tackle; Morgan(+0.5) was unblocked thanks to the Ojemudia play and helps finish with CGordon, who came from the backside quickly.

I know. Like… I know. But even if you kind of expect that you can't actually expect that, you know?

I don't know, you know?

Well, the thing is I've been doing these things for a while and I kind of know what a reasonable number is for a lot of this stuff and the numbers for this game are just not reasonable. I think we should look at

CHART

a chart.

Defensive Line

Player

+

-

T

Notes

Roh

8.5

2

6.5

Reliable. Active. Mini-RVB.

Campbell

2

0.5

1.5

Purdue only bothered to test M DTs a couple times.

Washington

2.5

1

1.5

So like whatever.

Black

0.5

1

-0.5

Again marginalized.

Clark

3.5

1

2.5

Another batted pass.

Beyer

2.5

2

0.5

Got cut pretty badly that one time.

Pipkins

0.5

0.5

0

eh

Heitzman

0.5

-

0.5

no comment possible for one half point

Ojemudia

4

-

4

All of this on last drive but that was impressive on the veer

Ash

-

-

-

DNP

Brink

-

-

-

DNP

TOTAL

24.5

8

16.5

When Purdue tried to run at hilariously few guys in the box they got zip.

Okay, so the LB numbers and the coverage numbers I will tell you flat out without even looking are completely unprecedented. Linebacking is hard, and covering people is hard, and I've been tolerant of scores around zero for both groups. To come out of a game with 80-90% good marks just never happens.

When something like this goes down I naturally would like to sanity-check it, so… yup, eleven drives, a flat 200 yards on those drives and 13 points. 10% of Purdue's yards on a hook and ladder. Purdue starting QB averages 4.4 YPA. When hook and ladder removed, all Purdue QBs combine for 4.2 YPA and throw two INTs. Purdue rushes for 3.0 YPC. Sanity checked. Sanity is like "maybe those numbers should be a little higher."

So, yeah, don't look at the –2 for Kovacs on like the few plays he was on the screen for, look at the coverage metric, and nod your head and say woo pig sooie. (Do not say that.) This was the quintessential play from yesterday: good play action from Purdue sucks Morgan up a fraction and…

…Demens almost bats it down and Gordon tackles the guy as soon as he touches the ball. College teams cannot execute in these windows very often, and even when Purdue's stuff was working they were operating with a tiny margin for error.

I started a tweet BOOM on Saturday and later thought to myself that was out of character; now I kind of wish I had added the SHAKALAKA deserved.

I thought you were kind of mad at JT Floyd?

I am still a little when 33 of Purdue's scanty yards are acquired on little five yard hitch routes Floyd cannot tackle on immediately:

(It happened to Taylor once, FWIW. These plays were about a quarter of Purdue's entire offensive output.) Reviewing the film I found 4 PBUs—even though the official stats only give him two in my book you get a PBU for being in position to catch a ball no matter how ugly the duck that misses the WR is. PBUs are hard and get points and again, no yards for Purdue and massive coverage metric.

A lot of those were rollouts and it's easier to roll out right for a right handed quarterback and then when the play is over you're on the right hash and Floyd is the boundary corner. I bet that if Michigan had swapped their guys Purdue still would have been throwing rollouts to the boundary, only at Taylor.

That said, it is a little weird. Taylor did give up that slant on fourth and two and just got lucky; he also gave up a slant on first and goal that was not so good. If that guy beats you to the outside and they complete the fade, okay. That's a much tougher recipe than chucking that easy slant.

Taylor's still doing very well in general—again, holy coverage metric. The bet here is that Floyd's frequent targeting was just a symptom of the limited offense Michigan was going up against.

JAKE F. RYAN

Yeah man yeah yeah. Okay, so he spends a big part of the day hanging out on the edge making or threatening to make plays like he did against that one ND screen on third and four. Purdue eventually just had to abandon that part of their gameplan entirely after they couldn't even throw the ball:

Another part of the day is spent pass rushing. He's unblocked here but TerBush is decently mobile and how many times do you see guys set loose overrun opponents?

Brandon Harrison sucked at that* and he was about half Ryan's size.

Also, murderdeathkill.

Mostly Mattison but again demonstration that Jake Ryan has a killer size/speed combo. On the next drive Ryan would do that again, and Marve was all like ball gone please leave me alone.

+10, no minus, yeah baby.

*[No offense Mr. Harrison. Brandon Harrison should have been much more involved in the 2008 defense, which insanely benched him until Minnesota when the 4-2-5 nickel came back.]

Demens? Morgan?

Demens now has a +14, –0.5, +13.5 line the last two games. Morgan hasn't had that kind of eye-popping UFR production but he's not that far off as a true sophomore. Note that in this game the veterans kept the rookies entirely off the field—that should tell you the coaches are a lot happier with them than they were a couple games ago.

Against a team that runs as much dinky pass stuff as Purdue that's mostly a compliment to their pass coverage.

DL marveling?

I'll have to take a pass this week as Purdue barely tested the DTs. When they did, Michigan responded, as BWS documented in a picture pages. I will say that Roh is handling SDE duties just fine so far; he's becoming the half-point machine RVB was last year where he's not lining up the opposing QB for killshots but is getting to him consistently, is stringing stuff out and closing off holes and doing all the littler things that make life easier for everyone else.

Anyone new emerging?

I was impressed by Mario Ojemudia's brief cameo at the end of the game. He swam past an offensive guard on a play reminiscent of his high school tape, and then he played an inverted veer just right. So here he delays the QB's decision, forces a pull, occupies the pulling G, and helps tackle:

Can't do that better. Just getting the two for one (contain and the pulling G) is a major win; doing that and making the subsequent tackle easier for the unblocked LB you caused to be unblocked is great.

While I'm not sure how much more we'll see him in important moments with Beyer back, he's shown the first flashes of quality play. Whoever wins the WDE dogfight going into 2013 is going to be pretty dang good.

Illinois will put up 14 or fewer points and totally fail to move the ball consistently.

As for the future, it seems like the veteran ILBs have reasserted a hold on their jobs, and for the best reason: playing better. We'll see more of the freshmen when the defense isn't booting the opposition off the field in three plays while Michigan takes 17 to matriculate down the field; I don't think they'll be huge threats to displace the oldsters. Michigan's LBs are clean and playing a lot faster.

We got a few extra hints that the DL was pretty good, and that whatever coverages Michigan is running are being executed extremely well. Michigan's short a couple elite athletes in the secondary; other than that there's not much to criticize.

"I met him, fifteen months ago. I was told there was nothing left. No reason, no conscience, no understanding; even the most rudimentary sense of life or death, good or evil, right or wrong. I met this 6'3" linebacker, with this blank, pale, emotionless face and, the blackest eyes... the devil's eyes. I spent eight weeks trying to coach him, and then another seven trying to keep him locked up because I realized what was living behind that boy's eyes was purely and simply... evil."

"A guy who came to Michigan for the first time, his ass was a wad of cookie dough. After a few weeks, he was carved out of wood."

"Everything that has transpired has done so according to my design. Your friends, up there in shotgun formation, are walking into a trap, as is your receiving corps. It was I who allowed your QB to know the location of my linebackers. They are quite safe from your pitiful little band. An entire legion of my best players awaits them. Oh, I'm afraid the zone blitz will be quite operational when your friends arrive."

closing speed to the ball. When he gets around the ball it looks like someone pressed "Fast Forward" for him while everyone else is just in "play" mode. I go back and watch "that play" in the Sugar Bowl and am amazed at how the VT RB looks like he is in slow motion compared to Ryan.

on his HS team and it was a big win for OSU to get McVey? Holy Buckets did that work out well for us. Granted McVey unfortunately got sidelined by injuries so we never saw his true potential, but it is a great example of how recruiting is part skill and part luck. Nobody could have projected Jake becoming an absolute terror by his RS-S season when they picked their respective colleges.

If Illinois scores 14 on us, I must admit, I will be mildly disappointed. Damn expectations are setting me up for heatbreak. Oh well.

Also, when I re-watched the game, I couldn't help but notice that Pipkins was a boss at taking cut blocks. I guess he didn't factor much into the game, but unlike everybody else on the team, his feet remained firmy planted in the ground, and shoved the guy in the ground. I don't think I saw him once end up on his belly after a cut.

Going in to this game I was anticipating mostly nickel, with Ryan as the rush end, Roh and Black DTs, etc. (Brian predicted sort of the same thing). How terrific to see not only Campbell and Washington doing their new thing, but Ryan out over the WRs!

Has anyone ever seen a scheme that defends a bubble-heavy passing spread with an OLB aligned to blow up receivers? Did Mattison come up with that himself? Either way, I can't recall any unorthodox Michigan defensive game plan that worked that well. RPS+50 to Mattison!

I would say the scheme Michigan came up with to defend Bernie Kosar in the 1984 game was unorthodox and extremely successful. Kosar had led Miami to the MNC the year before and he was being hyped as a Heisman candidate (and with good reason). I had never seen as many defenders drop into pass coverage as Michigan used that game. Perhaps some others who were around back then also recall the game and can give more specifics about Michigan's defensive strategy. Kosar threw six interceptions that day. I was not able to find a box score for the game, but I did find this interesting account that mentions the interceptions:

That's a good one. I have memories of a large outside linebacker type – he wore 80 – dropping into coverage and snatching Bernie's passes out of the sky. That was a big time RPS+ game, all right, and against a much tougher opponent.

Anyone think with Roh graduating and Clark/Beyer/Ojemudia all looking like they deserve to see the field that one of those guys bulks up and makes the same type of position switch Roh did? (Probably not Ojemudia). Or do we think Heitzman/Strobel/Wormley will emerge next season? I was bullish on Wormley, but I'm afriad the injury could delay him another year.

He hasn't been impressive inside and next year with Washington and Pipkins, Black wouldn't start over them.

I think we're likely to see Clark-Pipkins-Washington-Black as our starting DL with Ojemudia, Henry/Ash, Wilkins/Heitzman, Strobel/Breyer rotating in. Obviously on nickle/dime formations that's when Black would kick inside and maybe even Strobel would do so as well.

I was looking forward to this all week, just to see how Jake Ryan would grade out. Count me not disappointed in the slightest. Mini-Clay Matthews indeed.

I've also been thinking about this for awhile and my not so bold prediction is that Brennen Beyer makes the same move this offseason that Craig Roh did last offseason and your UFR's next year feature Beyer as "mini-Roh" or "mini-RVB" as well. He's not much of a pass rusher at all, and it's obvious at this point that Ojemudia is at least coming along. With Frank Clark at WDE as well, the position is a bit crowded. Better a junior Beyer with game experience than a walk-on like Brink or a redshirt freshman like Strobel. Anyone else see this forthcoming?

You're forgetting Jibreel Black and I think the answer to your question is no. Between Black, Heitzman, Godin, Strobel, and Wormley, I think Beyer lack of size would leave him way down the depth chart.

I didn't forget about him, I've just never been all that impressed with him as he doesn't seem to do the little .5 point things Brian mentions that have made RVB and Roh successful. I think you would be more likely to see Heitzman there than Black. And Beyer is the same weight as Strobel right now (252), so if one can't put on the weight for the position then the other can't either.

Difference is Strobel projects to be much bigger than Beyer and has 3 inches on him based on the roster. You could be right but I don't think so. Besides I think there is nice depth with Clark, Beyer, and Ojemudia. Plus, Clark needs to stay on the straight and narrow or depth could be greatly diminished.

Ya, obviously Strobel will put on the weight long term and I think that SDE is definitely his position, I just don't know if he can put it on for next year. And good point about Clark as well, he is walking a very thin line at this point.

For me Beyer just came to mind because I feel the same way about him as I did about Roh at WDE. He's not a big liability or anything, but he's not going to get to the quarterback enough for the position and that's why a switch seemed like it could put him in a better position to succeed.

First of all, like someone said above, Strobel has 3 inches on Beyer, so he just has a bigger frame. Also, and more importantly, Strobel weighs 252 after a month or so of college weight training, basically very little. Strobel spent his offseason dropping all of his bad weight (according to him in an interview) and will be spending this year bulking back up.

Beyer, OTOH, has already been in the college S&C program for a full year and put on about 30 pounds since last year's roster. That's a lot. Making very large weight gains in multiple years is a tough task.

I'm not ruling Beyer out of the SDE spot next fall, because we don't have a player with a lot of PT after Roh and 3 guys with a lot of PT at WDE. However, Hoke/Mattison doesn't like the SDE to be much below 280, and asking Beyer to put on another 25 pounds might be a tall task. But a lot of people (myself included) thought Beyer projected best at SDE, so it might just be where he sticks for his last two years.

Great read as always, thanks Brian. I did notice that in the first play of the 2nd half, you credited Morgan with a +1 when it was Ryan who actually took on the guard and helped make the play with Roh. So Ryan's actually even BETTER than we thought he was ;)

If Kovacs is coming down into the box and we still have two safeties deep, isn't it a nickle? To me it looks like a 4-2-5 but where the LB kicks wide and a safety walks down into the box. I have to be missing something.

... what are the chances that he goes pro after next season? The guy would be drafted this year and next year, if he continues to grow (and he gets surrounded by more talent) I could see him going late 1st/early 2nd in the draft. A 3-4 team would love him as an OLB.

Yeah, that's definitely a possibility, but there's a long way to go until then. LBs who get picked in the 1st/2nd round typically have multiple years playing at a very high level, and are finalists for national awards.

But then again, who the hell knows with the NFL. Both Lamarr Woodley and Jonas Mouton were 2nd round picks so I guess anything can happen.

On the play just before Purdue's half-ending TD, one of the DTs pushes the other into position just before the snap. WTF went on there?

I disagree with giving Roh just a +1 on Purdue's first play of the 3rd quarter. He did something weird that looked kind of like drawing aggro on three blockers without actually letting himself get pushed out of the play. That wasn't all Mattison's alignment; Roh's unconventional play took three Purdue players AND the outside out of the play. I'd give him a +3. QB looks at that part of the field and goes WTF is going on in there??

As for the coverage, kudos, but that also tells me Purdue's receivers just aren't that athletic. Our secondary plays pretty smart, but it's pretty well known we don't have a shutdown corner that can stay step-for-step with an elite receiver. On one hand, if no one's open for almost an entire game, that's more on Purdue. On the other, it's very difficult for college players (at a real school, anyway) to play mistake-free coverage for a whole game.

"Whoever wins the WDE dogfight going into 2013 is going to be pretty dang good."

That's when Mattison says he'll "roll 'em". He WANTS to have a two-deep where defenders can split playing time at every position.

Well, I may be alone in this, but I'm hoping Michigan football DOESN'T end with the regular season.

We don't get to pick our bowl opponent, and I don't want to run the rest of this table just to get pasted 42-21 by a 4th place SEC team because got complacent not worrying about elite receivers. Not that I think Mattison will EVER let that happen, but really, why are we relieved that the Big Ten is weak?

I don't give a rat's ass about PWNing a weak conference. I want Michigan to be a giant among giants. Can't do much about a weak B1G, but let's not let B1G play give us this "big fish in a small pond" mentality here.