Phil Reisman: It's Ryan. No, Bramson. No, Jenkins

Apr. 10, 2013

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Thirteen days from now, Democrats will convene at the Westchester County Center in White Plains to pick a candidate whose mission will be to defeat County Executive Rob Astorino in November.

They have three choices: County Board Chairman Ken Jenkins of Yonkers, New Rochelle Mayor Noam Bramson and County Legislator Bill Ryan of White Plains.

From a policy standpoint, these guys are essentially alike. They’re left-of-center, savvy politicians who more or less share a philosophy that government should play a critical role in improving the quality of life of all its citizens.

Bucking the stereotype that Democrats fight among one another, they speak no evil.

“This has been a refreshingly positive campaign among the three of them,” Suzanne Berger, the chairwoman of the Greenburgh Democratic Committee, told me. “They’re playing nice as these things go.”

The official party line is that all three would be an improvement over Astorino’s Tea Party “Lite” message, which basically states that middle-class taxpayers sorely need relief from a bloated government filled with costly, “nice to have” frills.

Ryan has received a handful of “favorite son” committee endorsements from his native Peekskill and hometown White Plains. He also got a nod from Harrison’s party leaders.

But heavy political baggage drags him down to a distant third in this horse race.

Candidates must get 50.1 percent of the delegate vote to get the nomination, which is not expected to happen on the first ballot. If that’s the case, the third place finisher (probably Ryan) will get bumped off and a decision will be made on a second ballot.

So it’s really between Bramson and Jenkins — and the winner will be Jenkins. Wait, no, Bramson will carry the day. On the other hand …

“In these stages, everyone starts counting like General Westmoreland,” said Arnold Klugman, the longtime chairman of the New Rochelle Democrats. In other words, don’t trust the numbers until they’re officially tallied.

One theory among Democrats is that a majority of delegates will ultimately decide that Bramson has the best shot at beating Astorino. (Tellingly, Astorino’s backers buy into that theory.)

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One of the few remaining Republican stars in a heavily Democratic county, not to mention state, Astorino is seen as a potential challenger to Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2014. Knocking him off this year would be a coup for the Democrats.

The Cuomo machine is supposedly focused on Bramson, who has raised twice as much money as Ryan and Jenkins combined and is additionally supported by his influential mentor, Rep. Nita Lowey. Bramson has scored early committee backing in several central and northern Westchester towns as well as in Scarsdale. At the convention, he is expected to carry the Sound shore, including his home base of New Rochelle.

For his part, Jenkins has an appealing narrative. It’s lost on no one, least of all Jenkins himself, that he could become the first African-American county executive in Westchester history. This puts him in a national spotlight that could draw interest from high places — including the White House.

A mischievous rumor has it that Jenkins will determine that he can’t win the party’s nomination and drop out on the day of the convention to announce that he’s running instead for City Council president in Yonkers. This is questionable for a number of reasons — among them that the job of council president pays nearly $25,000 less than the job of county board chairman. (Dennis Robertson, a former Yonkers councilman, has officially expressed an interest in running for council president.) But the theory is that Jenkins would use the council presidency to position himself for an eventual run for mayor.

In any case, Jenkins denied the rumor in an email he sent me on Wednesday.

“No truth to the rumor,” he wrote. “We are in good shape going into the convention. We will also be rolling out labor endorsements starting today.”

Jenkins greatest weakness is that he is perceived as heavily partisan who won’t pick his fights, a modus operandi that badly backfired this year when he walked out on a budget meeting. In the process, he lost two members of his caucus to a new bipartisan coalition.

Nevertheless, Jenkins has a huge advantage in the nominating process. He has Yonkers on his side, and Yonkers has the most votes, representing almost 17 percent of the total.

He also has Mount Vernon and Ossining. Greenburgh, the second largest bloc at about 13 percent, is split — though Bramson is thought to have the majority there.

There are some 2,000 delegates, but that’s only on paper. Party Chairman Reginald Lafayette said he expected that a little better than half will show up on the evening of April 24. Many will carry proxies for the absentees.