Negotiations between Israel and Turkey provide a preview of U.S. oil exports.

﻿The U.S., seemingly awash in crude oil after an energy boom sent thousands of workers scurrying to the plains of Texas and North Dakota, will begin exporting oil for the first time since the 1973 oil embargo. ﻿

Photo: Eric Gay, STF

The federal government took the historic step of removing a 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports earlier this month.

So what happens next? Honestly, not much.

While the law has changed, the reality on the ground will be slow to catch up.

There were a few areas where crude exports had an instant effect. Domestic prices have risen to match the international market, though the oil glut already narrowed that price gap. Enterprise Products Partners announced it would export its first tanker of domestic light crude out of Houston in January. There's also been a drop off in projects to export condensate, an ultralight oil that wasn't subject to the crude oil export ban.

But until U.S. crude production begins to rise, the end of the ban probably won't have any significant impact on domestic oil markets, according to a report by the Energy Information Agency. The EIA pointed to 10.6 million barrels per day as the point at which oil exports would mean a boost to domestic production, fewer exports of refined products and slightly lower prices at the gas station. Domestic crude production has yet to top 9.59 million barrels per day, a record set in April.

Those predicted changes to the oil industry still sit further down the line, and the promised impact on the geopolitical sphere is probably years away, as well.

Speaker Paul Ryan, during an interview on The Hugh Hewitt Show last week, said that oil exports "helps us put OPEC out of business."

"It's not good for Venezuela, the Middle East, Russia, and others," Ryan said.

We hope that's true, but how do we know?

If you want to see an example of the effects of new energy exports, look to Turkey.

The Syrian civil war has brought Turkey and Russia close to a direct military conflict - a Russian fighter jet was shot down by Turkey after allegedly flying over its territory. Russia responded by imposing sanctions against Turkey, but natural gas still flows. Turkey receives a majority of its gas from Russia, and there's a real threat that spigot could be closed.

However, the massive Leviathan natural gas field off the coast of Israel offers Turkey a way out. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have been negotiating a deal to export this natural gas, providing Turkey an alternative source of energy that would undermine Vladimir Putin's ability to flex his pipeline muscle.

What makes this potential deal even more remarkable is the fact that once-strong relations between the two Mediterranean nations have been frosty since 2010, when an Israeli raid on a flotilla to Hamas-controlled Gaza resulted in the deaths of 10 Turkish activists. The deal isn't complete yet, and some observers are skeptical that the Islamist Erdogen will return relations with the Jewish state to the friendly attitude of a decade ago. But even normalized relations at the diplomatic level would be an impressive step, and a revealing insight about the geopolitical power of oil and gas exports.

Now that U.S. crude can hit the global marketplace, we can expect to see similar diplomatic breakthroughs as nations seek to diversify their energy resources away from historic suppliers like OPEC and Russia. A little competition can go a long way in oil and gas markets.