FROM STAGNATION TO GROWTH: UNIFIED GROWTH THEORY

Transcription

1 Chapter 4 FROM STAGNATION TO GROWTH: UNIFIED GROWTH THEORY ODED GALOR Brown University and Hebrew University Contents Abstract 172 Keywords Introduction Historical evidence The Malthusian epoch Income per capita Income and population growth The Post-Malthusian Regime Income per capita Income and population growth Industrialization and urbanization Early stages of human capital formation The Sustained Growth Regime Growth of income per capita The demographic transition Industrial development and human capital formation International trade and industrialization The great divergence The fundamental challenges Mysteries of the growth process The incompatibility of non-unified growth theories Malthusian and Post-Malthusian theories Theories of modern economic growth Theories of the demographic transition and their empirical assessment The decline in infant and child mortality The rise in the level of income per capita The rise in the demand for human capital The decline in the gender gap Other theories 234 Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A. Edited by Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved DOI: /S (05)01004-X

2 172 O. Galor 4. Unified growth theory From stagnation to growth Central building blocks The basic structure of the model The dynamical system From Malthusian stagnation to sustained growth Major hypotheses and their empirical assessment Complementary theories Alternative mechanisms for the emergence of human capital formation Alternative triggers for the demographic transition Alternative modeling of the transition from agricultural to industrial economy Unified evolutionary growth theory Human evolution and economic development Natural selection and the origin of economic growth Primary ingredients Main hypotheses and their empirical assessment Complementary mechanisms The evolution of ability and economic growth The evolution of life expectancy and economic growth Differential takeoffs and the great divergence Non-unified theories Unified theories Human capital promoting institutions Globalization and the great divergence Concluding remarks 283 Acknowledgements 285 References 285 Abstract The transition from stagnation to growth and the associated phenomenon of the great divergence have been the subject of an intensive research in the growth literature in recent years. The discrepancy between the predictions of exogenous and endogenous growth models and the process of development over most of human history, induced growth theorists to advance an alternative theory that would capture in a single unified framework the contemporary era of sustained economic growth, the epoch of Malthusian stagnation that had characterized most of the process of development, and the fundamental driving forces of the recent transition between these distinct regimes. The advancement of unified growth theory was fueled by the conviction that the understanding of the contemporary growth process would be limited and distorted unless growth theory would be based on micro-foundations that would reflect the qualitative aspects of the growth process in its entirety. In particular, the hurdles faced by less

3 Ch. 4: From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory 173 developed economies in reaching a state of sustained economic growth would remain obscured unless the origin of the transition of the currently developed economies into a state of sustained economic growth would be identified, and its implications would be modified to account for the additional economic forces faced by less developed economies in an interdependent world. Unified growth theory suggests that the transition from stagnation to growth is an inevitable outcome of the process of development. The inherent Malthusian interaction between the level of technology and the size and the composition of the population accelerated the pace of technological progress, and ultimately raised the importance of human capital in the production process. The rise in the demand for human capital in the second phase of industrialization, and its impact on the formation of human capital as well as on the onset of the demographic transition, brought about significant technological advancements along with a reduction in fertility rates and population growth, enabling economies to convert a larger share of the fruits of factor accumulation and technological progress into growth of income per capita, and paving the way for the emergence of sustained economic growth. Variations in the timing of the transition from stagnation to growth and thus in economic performance across countries reflect initial differences in geographical factors and historical accidents and their manifestation in variations in institutional, social, cultural, and political factors. In particular, once a technologically driven demand for human capital emerged in the second phase of industrialization, the prevalence of human capital promoting institutions determined the extensiveness of human capital formation, the timing of the demographic transition, and the pace of the transition from stagnation to growth. Keywords growth, technological progress, demographic transition, human capital, evolution, natural selection, Malthusian stagnation JEL classification: O11, O14, O33, O40, J11, J13

4 174 O. Galor 1. Introduction This chapter examines the recent advance of a unified growth theory that is designed to capture the complexity of the process of growth and development over the entire course of human history. The evolution of economies during the major portion of human history was marked by Malthusian Stagnation. Technological progress and population growth were miniscule by modern standards and the average growth rate of income per capita in various regions of the world was even slower due to the offsetting effect of population growth on the expansion of resources per capita. In the past two centuries, in contrast, the pace of technological progress increased significantly in association with the process of industrialization. Various regions of the world departed from the Malthusian trap and experienced initially a considerable rise in the growth rates of income per capita and population. Unlike episodes of technological progress in the pre-industrial Revolution era that failed to generate sustained economic growth, the increasing role of human capital in the production process in the second phase of industrialization ultimately prompted a demographic transition, liberating the gains in productivity from the counterbalancing effects of population growth. The decline in the growth rate of population and the associated enhancement of technological progress and human capital formation paved the way for the emergence of the modern state of sustained economic growth. The transitions from a Malthusian epoch to a state of sustained economic growth and the related phenomenon of the Great Divergence, as depicted in Figure 1, have significantly shaped the contemporary world economy. 1 Nevertheless, the distinct qualitative aspects of the growth process during most of human history were virtually ignored in the shaping of growth models, resulting in a growth theory that is consistent with a small fragment of human history. The inconsistency of exogenous and endogenous growth models with some of the most fundamental features of process of development, has led recently to a search for a unified theory that would unveil the underlying micro-foundations of the growth process in its entirety, capturing the epoch of Malthusian Stagnation that characterized most of human history, the contemporary era of modern economic growth, and the underlying driving forces that triggered the recent transition between these regimes and the associated phenomenon of the Great Divergence in income per capita across countries. The preoccupation of growth theory with empirical regularities that have characterized the growth process of developed economies in the past century and of less developed economies in the last few decades, has become harder to justify from a scientific viewpoint in light of the existence of vast evidence about qualitatively different 1 The ratio of GDP per capita between the richest region and the poorest region in the world was only 1.1 : 1 in the year 1000, 2 : 1 in the year 1500, and 3 : 1 in the year In the course of the Great Divergence the ratio of GDP per capita between the richest region and the poorest region has widened considerably from a modest 3 : 1 ratio in 1820, to a 5 : 1 ratio in 1870, a 9 : 1 ratio in 1913, a 15 : 1 ratio in 1950, and a 18 : 1 ratio in 2001.

5 Ch. 4: From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory 175 Figure 1. The evolution of regional income per capita over the years Source: Maddison (2003). 2 empirical regularities that characterized the growth process over most of human existence. It has become evident that in the absence of a unified growth theory that is consistent with the entire process of development, the understanding of the contemporary growth process would be limited and distorted. As stated eloquently by Copernicus: It is as though an artist were to gather the hands, feet, head and other members for his images from diverse models, each part perfectly drawn, but not related to a single body, and since they in no way match each other, the result would be monster rather than man. 3 The evolution of theories in older scientific disciplines suggests that theories that are founded on the basis of a subset of the existing observations and their driving forces, may be attractive in the short run, but non-robust and eventually non-durable in the long run. 4 The attempts to develop unified theories in physics have been based on the conviction that all physical phenomena should be explainable by some underlying unity. 5 Similarly, the entire process of development and its foundamental forces ought to be captured by a unified growth theory. 2 According to Maddison s classification, Western Offshoots consist of the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. 3 Quoted in Kuhn (1957). 4 For instance, Classical Thermodynamics that lacked micro-foundations was ultimately superseded by the micro-based Statistical Mechanics. 5 Unified Field Theory, for instance, proposes to unify by a set of general laws the four distinct forces that are known to control all the observed interactions in matter: electromagnetism, gravitation, the weak force, and the strong force. The term unified field theory was coined by Einstein, whose research on relativity led him to the hypothesis that it should be possible to find a unifying theory for the electromagnetic and gravitational forces.

6 176 O. Galor The transition from stagnation to growth and the associated phenomenon of the great divergence have been the subject of intensive research in the growth literature in recent years. 6 It has been increasingly recognized that the understanding of the contemporary growth process would be fragile and incomplete unless growth theory could be based on proper micro-foundations that would reflect the various qualitative aspects of the growth process and their central driving forces. Moreover, it has become apparent that a comprehensive understanding of the hurdles faced by less developed economies in reaching a state of sustained economic growth would be futile unless the factors that prompted the transition of the currently developed economies into a state of sustained economic growth could be identified and their implications would be modified to account for the differences in the growth structure of less developed economies in an interdependent world. Imposing the constraint that a single theory should account for the entire intricate process of development and its prime causes in the last thousands of years is a discipline that would enhance the viability of growth theory. A unified theory of economic growth would reveal the fundamental micro-foundations that are consistent with the process of economic development over the entire course of human history, rather that with the last century only, boosting the confidence in growth theory, its predictions and policy implications. Moreover, it would improve the understanding of the underlying factors that led to the transition from stagnation to growth of the currently developed countries, shedding light on the growth process of the less developed economies. The establishment of a unified growth theory has been a great intellectual challenge, requiring major methodological innovations in the construction of dynamical systems that could capture the complexity which characterized the evolution of economies from a Malthusian epoch to a state of sustained economic growth. Historical evidence suggests that the transition from the Malthusian epoch to a state of sustained economic growth, rapid as it may appear, was a gradual process and thus could not plausibly be viewed as the outcome of a major exogenous shock that shifted economies from the basin of attraction of the Malthusian epoch into the basin of attraction of the Modern Growth Regime. 7 The simplest methodology for the generation of a phase transition a major shock in an environment characterized by multiple locally stable equilibria 6 The transition from Malthusian stagnation to sustained economic growth was explored by Galor and Weil (1999, 2000), Lucas (2002), Galor and Moav (2002), Hansen and Prescott (2002), Jones (2001), as well as others, and the association of Great Divergence with this transition was analyzed by Galor and Mountford (2003). 7 As established in Section 2, and consistently with the revisionist view of the Industrial Revolution, neither the 19th century s take-off of the currently developed world, nor the recent take-off of less developed economies provide evidence for an unprecedented shock that generated a quantum leap in income per-capita. In particular, technological progress could not be viewed as a shock to the system. As argued by Mokyr (2002) technological progress during the Industrial Revolution was an outcome of a gradual endogenous process that took place over this time period. Similarly, technological progress in less developed economies was an outcome of a deliberate decision by entrepreneurs to adopt existing advanced technologies.

7 Ch. 4: From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory 177 was therefore not applicable for the generation of the observed transition from stagnation to growth. An alternative methodology for the observed phase transition was rather difficult to establish since a unified growth theory in which economies take off gradually but swiftly from an epoch of a stable Malthusian stagnation would necessitate a gradual escape from an absorbing (stable) equilibrium a contradiction to the essence of a stable equilibrium. Ultimately, however, it has become apparent that the observed rapid, continuous, phase transition would be captured by a single dynamical system, if the set of steady-state equilibria and their stability would be altered qualitatively in the process of development. As proposed in unified growth theory, first advanced by Galor and Weil (2000), during the Malthusian epoch the dynamical system would have to be characterized by a stable Malthusian equilibrium, but eventually, due to the evolution of latent state variables the dynamical system would change qualitatively, the Malthusian equilibrium would vanish endogenously, leaving the arena to the gravitational forces of the emerging Modern-Growth Regime, and permitting the economy to take off and to converge to a modern-growth steady-state equilibrium. The observed role of the demographic transition in the shift from the Post-Malthusian Regime to the Sustained Growth Regime and the associated non-monotonic evolution of the relationship between income per capita and population growth added to the complexity of the desirable dynamical system. In order to capture this additional transition unified growth theory had to generate endogenously, in the midst of the process of industrialization, a reversal in the positive Malthusian effect of income on population, providing the reduction in fertility the observed role in the transition to a state of sustained economic growth. As elaborated in this chapter, unified growth theory explores the fundamental factors that generated the remarkable escape from the Malthusian epoch and their significance for the understanding of the contemporary growth process of developed and less developed economies. It deciphers some of the most fundamental questions that have been shrouded in mystery: what accounts for the epoch of stagnation that characterized most of human history? what is the origin of the sudden spurt in growth rates of output per capita and population? why had episodes of technological progress in the pre-industrialization era failed to generate sustained economic growth? what was the source of the dramatic reversal in the positive relationship between income per capita and population that existed throughout most of human history? what triggered the demographic transition? would the transition to a state of sustained economic growth have been feasible without the demographic transition? and, what are the underlying behavioral and technological structures that could simultaneously account for these distinct phases of development and what are their implications for the contemporary growth process of developed and underdeveloped countries? Moreover, unified growth theory sheds light on the perplexing phenomenon of the Great Divergence in income per capita across regions of the world in the past two centuries: what accounts for the sudden take-off from stagnation to growth in some countries in the world and the persistent stagnation in others? why has the positive

8 178 O. Galor link between income per capita and population growth reversed its course in some economies but not in others? why have the differences in income per capita across countries increased so markedly in the last two centuries? and has the transition to a state of sustained economic growth in advanced economies adversely affected the process of development in less-developed economies? Unified growth theory suggests that the transition from stagnation to growth is an inevitable by-product of the process of development. The inherent Malthusian interaction between technology and population, accelerated the pace of technological progress, and ultimately brought about an industrial demand for human capital, stimulating human capital formation, and thus further technological progress, and triggering a demographic transition, that has enabled economies to convert a larger share of the fruits of factor accumulation and technological progress into growth of income per capita. Moreover, the theory suggests that differences in the timing of the take-off from stagnation to growth across countries contributed significantly to the Great Divergence and to the emergence of convergence clubs. Variations in the economic performance across countries and regions (e.g., earlier industrialization in England than in China) reflect initial differences in geographical factors and historical accidents and their manifestation in variations in institutional, demographic, and cultural factors, trade patterns, colonial status, and public policy. 2. Historical evidence This section examines the historical evidence about the evolution of the relationship between income per capita, population growth, technological change and human capital formation during the course of three distinct regimes that have characterized the process of economic development: The Malthusian Epoch, The Post-Malthusian Regime, and the Sustained Growth Regime. During the Malthusian Epoch that characterized most of human history, technological progress and population growth were insignificant by modern standards. The level of income per capita had a positive effect on population and the average growth rate of income per capita in the long-run, as depicted in Figure 2, was negligible due to the slow pace of technological progress as well as the counterbalancing effect of population growth on the expansion of resources per capita. During the Post Malthusian Regime, the pace of technological progress markedly increased in association with the process of industrialization, triggering a take-off from the Malthusian trap. The growth rate of income per capita, as depicted in Figures 1 and 2, increased significantly but the positive Malthusian effect of income per capita on population growth was still maintained, generating a sizable increase in population growth that offset some of the potential gains in income per capita. The acceleration in the rate of technological progress in the second phase of industrialization, and its interaction with human capital formation, eventually prompted the demographic transition. The rise in aggregate income was no longer

9 Ch. 4: From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory 179 Figure 2. The evolution of the world income per capita over the years Sources: Maddison (2001, 2003). counterbalanced by population growth, enabling technological progress to bring about sustained increase in income per capita The Malthusian epoch During the Malthusian epoch that had characterized most of human history, humans were subjected to persistent struggle for existence. Technological progress was insignificant by modern standards and resources generated by technological progress and land expansion were channeled primarily towards an increase in the size of the population, with a minor long-run effect on income per capita. The positive effect of the standard of living on population growth along with diminishing labor productivity kept income per capita in the proximity of a subsistence level. 8 Periods marked by the absence of changes in the level of technology or in the availability of land, were characterized by a stable population size as well as a constant income per capita, whereas periods characterized by improvements in the technological environment or in the availability of land generated temporary gains in income per capita, leading eventually to a larger but not richer population. Technologically superior countries had eventually denser populations but their standard of living did not reflect the degree of their technological advancement. 9 8 This subsistence level of consumption may be well above the minimal physiological requirements that are necessary in order to sustain an active human being. 9 Thus, as reflected in the viewpoint of a prominent observer of the period, the most decisive mark of the prosperity of any country [was] the increase in the number of its inhabitants [Smith (1776)].

10 180 O. Galor Income per capita During the Malthusian epoch the average growth rate of output per capita was negligible and the standard of living did not differ greatly across countries. As depicted in Figure 2 the average level of income per capita during the first millennium fluctuated around $450 per year, and the average growth rate of output per capita in the world was nearly zero. 10 This state of Malthusian Stagnation persisted until the end of the 18th century. In the years , the average level of income per capita in the world economy was below $670 per year and the average growth rate of the world income per capita was miniscule, creeping at a rate of about 0.05% per year [Maddison (2001)]. This pattern of stagnation was observed across all regions of the world. As depicted in Figure 1, the average level of income per capita in Western and Eastern Europe, the Western Offshoots, Asia, Africa, and Latin America was in the range of $ per year in the first millennium and the average growth rate in each of these regions was nearly zero. This state of stagnation persisted until the end of the 18th century across all regions and the level of income per capita in 1820 ranged from $418 per year in Africa, $581 in Asia, $692 in Latin America, and $683 in Eastern Europe, to $1202 in the Western Offshoots (i.e., United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand), and $1204 in Western Europe. Furthermore, the average growth rate of output per capita over this period ranged from 0% in the impoverished region of Africa to a sluggish rate of 0.14% in the prosperous region of Western Europe. Despite the stability in the evolution of the world income per capita in the Malthusian epoch, from a perspective of a millennium, wages and income per capita fluctuated significantly within regions deviating from their sluggish long-run trend over decades and sometimes over several centuries. In particular, as depicted in Figure 3, real GDP per capita in England fluctuated drastically over most of the past millennium. It declined during the 13th century, and increased sharply during the 14th and 15th centuries in response to the catastrophic population decline in the aftermath of the Black Death. This two-century rise in per capita real income stimulated population growth and brought about a decline in income per capita in the 16th century, back to its level in the first half of the 14th century. Real income per capita increased once again in the 17th century and remained stable during the 18th century, prior to its rise during the take-off in the 19th century Income and population growth Population growth and the level of income Population growth over this era followed the Malthusian pattern as well. As depicted in Figures 4 and 5, the slow pace of resource expansion in the first millennium was reflected in a modest increase in the population of the world from 231 million people in 1 AD to 268 million in 1000 AD; a miniscule 10 Maddison s estimates of income per capita are evaluated in terms of 1990 international dollars.

11 Ch. 4: From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory 181 Figure 3. Fluctuations in real GDP per capita: England, Source: Clark (2001). Figure 4. The evolution of world population and income per capita over the years Source: Maddison (2001). average growth rate of 0.02% per year. 11 The more rapid (but still very slow) expansion of resources in the period , permitted the world population to increase by 63% over this period, from 268 million in 1000 AD to 438 million in 1500; a slow 0.1% average growth rate per year. Resource expansion over the period had a more significant impact on the world population, which grew 138% from 438 million 11 Since output per capita grew at an average rate of 0% per year over the period , the pace of resource expansion was approximately equal to the pace of population growth, namely, 0.02% per year.

12 182 O. Galor Figure 5. Population growth and income per capita in the world economy. Source: Maddison (2001). in 1500 to 1041 million in 1820; an average pace of 0.27% per year. 12 This positive effect of income per capita on the size of the population was maintained in the last two centuries as well, as world population reached a remarkable level of nearly 6 billion people. Moreover, the gradual increase in income per capita during the Malthusian epoch was associated with a monotonic increase in the average rate of growth of world population, as depicted in Figure 5. This pattern was exhibited within and across countries. 13 Fluctuations in income and population Fluctuations in population and wages over this epoch exhibited the Malthusian pattern as well. Episodes of technological progress, land expansion, favorable climatic conditions, or major epidemics (that resulted in a decline of the adult population), brought about a temporary increase in real wages and income per capita. In particular, as depicted in Figure 6, the catastrophic decline in the population of England during the Black Death ( ), from about 6 million 12 Since output per capita in the world grew at an average rate of 0.05% per year in the time period as well as in the period , the pace of resource expansion was approximately equal to the sum of the pace of population growth and the growth of output per capita. Namely, 0.15% per year in the period, and 0.32% per year in the period Lee (1997) reports positive income elasticity of fertility and negative income elasticity of mortality from studies examining a wide range of pre-industrial countries. Similarly, Wrigley and Schofield (1981) find a strong positive correlation between real wages and marriage rates in England over the period Clark and Hamilton (2003) find that in England, at the beginning of the 17th century, the number of surviving offspring is higher among households with higher level of income and literacy rates, suggesting that the positive effect of income on fertility is present cross-sectionally, as well.

13 Ch. 4: From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory 183 Figure 6. Population and real wages: England, Sources: Clark (2001, 2002). to about 3.5 million people, increased significantly the land labor ratio, tripling real wages in the subsequent 150 years. Ultimately, however, most of this increase in real resources per capita was channeled towards increased fertility rates, increasing the size of the population, and bringing the real wage rate in the 1560s back to the proximity of its pre-plague level. 14 Population density Variations in population density across countries during the Malthusian epoch reflected primarily cross country differences in technologies and land productivity. Due to the positive adjustment of population to an increase in income per capita, differences in technologies or in land productivity across countries resulted in variations in population density rather than in the standard of living. 15 For instance, China s technological advancement in the period permitted its share of world population to increase from 23.5% to 36.6%, while its income per capita in the beginning and the end of this time interval remained constant at roughly $600 per year. 16 This pattern of increased population density persisted until the demographic transition, namely, as long as the positive relationship between income per capita and 14 Reliable population data is not available for the period and Figure 6 is depicted under the assumption maintained by Clark (2001) that population was rather stable over this period. 15 Consistent with the Malthusian paradigm, China s sophisticated agricultural technologies, for example, allowed high per-acre yields, but failed to raise the standard of living above subsistence. Similarly, the introduction of the potato in Ireland, in the middle of the 17th century, generated a large increase in population over two centuries without significant improvements in the standard of living. Furthermore, the destruction of potatoes by fungus in the middle of the 19th century, generated a massive decline in population due to the Great Famine and mass migration [Mokyr (1985)]. 16 The Chinese population more than tripled over this period, increasing from 103 million in 1500 to 381 million in 1820.

14 184 O. Galor Figure 7. Fertility and mortality: England Source: Wrigley and Schofield (1981). population growth was maintained. In the period , United Kingdom s technological advancement relative to the rest of the world more than doubled its share of world population from 1.1% to 2.5%. Similarly, in the period , the land abundant, technologically advanced economy of the US experienced a 220% increase in its share of world population from 1% to 3.2%. 17 Mortality and fertility The Malthusian demographic regime was characterized by fluctuations in fertility rates, reflecting variability in income per capita as well as changes in mortality rates. The relationship between fertility and mortality during the Malthusian epoch was complex. Periods of rising income per capita permitted a rise in the number of surviving offspring, inducing an increase in fertility rates along with a reduction in mortality rates, due to improved nourishment, and health infrastructure. Periods of rising mortality rates (e.g., the black death) induced an increase in fertility rates so as to maintain the number of surviving offspring that can be supported by existing resources. In particular, demographic patterns in England during the 14th and 15th centuries, as depicted in Figure 6, suggest that an (exogenous) increase in mortality rates was indeed associated with a significant rise in fertility rates. However, the period in England, vividly demonstrates a negative relationship between mortality rates and fertility rates. As depicted in Figure 7, an increase in mortality rates over the period was associated with a decline in fertility rates, whereas the rise in income per capita in the time period was associated with a decline in mortality rates along with increasing fertility rates. 17 The population of the United Kingdom nearly quadrupled over the period , increasing from 8.6 million in 1700 to 31.4 million in Similarly, the population of the United states increased 40-fold, from 1.0 million in 1700 to 40.2 million in 1870, due to a significant labor migration, as well as high fertility rates.

15 Ch. 4: From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory 185 Figure 8. Life expectancy: England, Source: Wrigley and Schofield (1981). Life expectancy Life expectancy at birth fluctuated in the Malthusian epoch, ranging from 24 in Egypt in the time period AD, to 42 in England at the end of the 16th century. In the initial process of European urbanization, the percentage of urban population increased six-fold from about 3% in 1520 to nearly 18% in 1750 [De Vries (1984) and Bairoch (1988)]. This rapid increase in population density, without significant changes in health infrastructure, generated a rise in mortality rates and a decline in life expectancy. As depicted in Figures 7 and 8, over the period mortality rates increased by 50% and life expectancy at birth fell from about 40 to nearly 30 years [Wrigley and Schofield (1981)]. A decline in mortality along with a rise in life expectancy began in the 1740s. Life expectancy at birth rose from about 30 to 40 in England and from 25 to 40 in France over the period [Livi-Bacci (1997)] The Post-Malthusian Regime During the Post-Malthusian Regime the pace of technological progress markedly increased along the process of industrialization. 18 The growth rate of output per capita increased significantly, as depicted in Figures 1, 2 and 3, but the positive Malthusian effect of income per capita on population growth was still maintained, generating a sizable increase in population growth, as depicted in Figures 4 and 5, and offsetting some of the potential gains in income per capita. The take-off of developed regions from the Malthusian Regime was associated with the Industrial Revolution and occurred at the beginning of the 19th century, whereas the take-off of less developed regions occurred towards the beginning of the 20th century and was delayed in some countries well into the 20th century. The Post-Malthusian 18 Ironically, shortly before the publication of Malthus influential essay, some regions in the world began to emerge from the trap that he described.

16 186 O. Galor Regime ended with the decline in population growth in Western Europe and the Western Offshoots (i.e. United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) towards the end of the 19th century, and in less developed regions in the second half of the 20th century Income per capita During the Post-Malthusian Regime the average growth rate of output per capita increased significantly and the standard of living started to differ considerably across countries. As depicted in Figure 2, the average growth rate of output per capita in the world soared from 0.05% per year in the time period to 0.53% per year in , and 1.3% per year in The timing of the take-off and its magnitude differed across regions. As depicted in Figure 9, the take-off from the Malthusian Epoch and the transition to the Post-Malthusian Regime occurred in Western Europe, the Western Offshoots, and Eastern Europe at the beginning of the 19th century, whereas in Latin America, Asia (excluding China) and Africa it took place at the end of the 19th century. Among the regions that took off at the beginning of the 19th century, the growth rate of income per capita in Western Europe increased from 0.15% per year in the years to 0.95% per year in the time period , and the growth rates of income per capita of the Western Offshoots increased over the corresponding time periods from 0.34% per year to 1.42% per year. In contrast, the take-off in Eastern Europe was more modest, and its growth rate increased from 0.1% per year in the period to 0.63% per year in the time interval Among the regions that took off towards the end of the 19th century, the average growth rate of income per capita in Latin America jumped from a sluggish rate of 0.11% per year in the years to a considerable rate of 1.81% per year in the time period , whereas Africa s growth rates increased more modestly from 0.12% per year in the years to 0.64% per year in time interval and 1.02% per year in the period Asia s (excluding Japan, China and India) take-off was modest as well, increasing from 0.13% per year in the years to 0.64% per year in the period. 19 The level of income per capita in the various regions of the world, as depicted in Figure 1, ranged in 1870 from $444 in Africa, $543 in Asia, $698 in Latin America, and $871 in Eastern Europe, to $1974 in Western Europe and $2431 in the Western Offshoots. Thus, the differential timing of the take-off from the Malthusian epoch, increased the gap between the richest region of Western Europe and the Western Offshoots to the impoverished region of Africa from about 3 : 1 in 1820 to approximately 5 : 1in Japan s average growth rate increased from 0.19% per year in the period , to 1.48% per year in the period India s growth rate increased from 0% per year to 0.54% per year over the corresponding periods, whereas China s take-off was delayed till the 1950s.

17 Ch. 4: From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory 187 Figure 9. The differential timing of the take-off across regions. Source: Maddison (2001). The acceleration in technological progress and the accumulation of physical capital and to a lesser extent human capital, generated a gradual rise in real wages in the urban sector and (partly due to labor mobility) in the rural sector as well. As depicted in Figure 10, the take-off from the Malthusian epoch in the aftermath of the Industrial Revolution was associated in England with a modest rise in real wages in the first decades of the 19th century and a very significant rise in real wages after A very significant rise in real wages was experienced in France, as well, after Stokey (2001) attributes about half of the rise in real wage over the period to the forces of international trade. Moreover, the study suggests that technological change in manufacturing was three times as important as technological change in the energy sector, in contributing to output growth.

18 188 O. Galor Figure 10. Real wages in England and France during the take-off from the Malthusian Epoch. Sources: Clark (2002) for England, and Levy-Leboyer and Bourguignon (1990) for France Income and population growth The rapid increase in income per capita in the Post-Malthusian Regime was channeled partly towards an increase in the size of the population. During this regime, the Malthusian mechanism linking higher income to higher population growth continued to function, but the effect of higher population on diluting resources per capita, and thus lowering income per capita, was counteracted by the acceleration in technological progress and capital accumulation, allowing income per capita to rise despite the offsetting effects of population growth. The Western European take-off along with that of the Western Offshoots brought about a sharp increase in population growth in these regions and consequently a modest rise in population growth in the world as a whole. The subsequent take-off of less developed regions and the associated increase in their population growth brought about a significant rise in population growth in the world. The rate of population growth in the world increased from an average rate of 0.27% per year in the period to 0.4% per year in the years , and to 0.8% per year in the time interval Furthermore, despite the decline in population growth in Western Europe and the Western Offshoots towards the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, the delayed take-off of less developed regions and the significant increase in their income per capita prior to their demographic transitions generated a further increase in the rate of population growth in the world to 0.93% per year in the period , and a sharp rise to a high rate of 1.92% per year in the period Ultimately, the onset of the demographic transition in less developed economies in the second half of the 20th century, gradually reduced population growth rates to 1.66% per year in the period [Maddison (2001)].

19 Ch. 4: From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory 189 Figure 11. Regional growth of GDP per capita and population: Source: Maddison (2001). Growth in income per capita and population growth As depicted in Figure 11, the take-off in the growth rate of income per capita in all regions of the world was associated with a take-off in population growth. In particular, the average growth rates of income per capita in Western Europe over the time period rose to an annual rate of 0.95% (from 0.15% in the period ) along with a significant increase in population growth to an annual rate of about 0.7% (from 0.26% in the period ). Similarly, the average growth rates of income per capita in the Western Offshoots over the years rose to an annual rate of 1.42% (from 0.34% in the period ) along with a significant increase in population growth to an annual rate of about 2.87% (from 0.43% in the period ). A similar pattern was observed in Asia, and as depicted in Figure 11, in Africa and Latin America as well. The average growth rates of income per capita in Latin America over the years rose to an annual rate of 1.81% (from 0.1% in the period ) and subsequently to an annual rate of 1.43% in time interval and 2.52% in the time period along with a significant increase in popula-

20 190 O. Galor tion growth to an annual rate of 1.64% in the period , 1.97% in the years , and 2.73% in the period , prior to the decline in the context of the demographic transition. Similarly, the average growth rates of income per capita in Africa over the period rose to an annual rate of 0.64% (from 0.12% in the period ) and subsequently to an annual rate of 1.02% in the years and 2.07% in the period , along with a monotonic increase in population growth from a modest average annual rate of 0.4% in the years , to a 0.75% in the years , 1.65% in the years , 2.33% in the time interval , and a rapid average annual rate of 2.73% in the period Technological leaders and land-abundant regions during the Post-Malthusian era improved their relative position in the world in terms of their level of income per capita as well as their population size. The increase in population density of technological leaders persisted as long as the positive relationship between income per capita and population growth was maintained. Western Europe s technological advancement relative to the rest of the world increased its share of world population by 16% from 12.8% in 1820 to 14.8% in 1870, whereas the regional technological leader, the United Kingdom, increased its share of world population by 25% (from 2% to 2.5%) over this fifty-year period. Moreover, land abundance and technological advancement in the Western Offshoots (US, Australia, New Zealand and Canada) increased their share of world population by 227% over a fifty-year period, from 1.1% in 1820 to 3.6% in The rate of population growth relative to the growth rate of aggregate income declined gradually over the period. For instance, the growth rate of total output in Western Europe was 0.3% per year between 1500 and 1700, and 0.6% per year between 1700 and In both periods, two thirds of the increase in total output was matched by increased population growth, and the growth of income per capita was only 0.1% per year in the earlier period and 0.2% in the later one. In the United Kingdom, where growth was the fastest, the same rough division between total output growth and population growth can be observed: total output grew at an annual rate of 1.1% in the 120 years after 1700, while population grew at an annual rate of 0.7%. Population and income per capita continued to grow after 1820, but increasingly the growth of total output was expressed as growth of income per capita. Population growth was 40% as large as total output growth over the time period , dropping further after the demographic transition to about 20% of output growth over the period. Fertility and mortality The relaxation in the households budget constraint in the Post- Malthusian Regime permitted an increase in fertility rates along with an increase in literacy rates and years of schooling. Despite the decline in mortality rates, fertility rates (as well as population growth) increased in most of Western Europe until the second half of the 19th century [Coale and Treadway (1986)]. 21 In particular, as depicted in Figure 12, in spite of a century of decline in mortality rates, the crude birth rates in 21 See Dyson and Murphy (1985) as well.

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