Big climate shifts seen for state

1of34The National Climate Assessment says that if current trends continue, New York's climate will be warmer, wetter and buggier, with a rising Atlantic Ocean threatening people and property along the state's densely populated shoreline, including along the tidally driven Hudson River all the way to Troy. A view of the Hudson River and the City of Troy on Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2018, in Troy, N.Y. (Paul Buckowski/Times Union)Paul Buckowski2of34

State projections released in 2015 forecast that the Hudson River in Troy could rise from one to nine inches during the 2020s, between 5 and 27 inches by the 2050s, and between 10 and 54 inches by the 2080s.

By the time a child born in 2015 turns 85 in 2100, the river at Troy could be up as little as 10 inches — or as much as nearly 6 feet. Projected increases were slightly larger farther south. In New York City by 2100 the sea could be between 15 inches and 75 inches — just over 6 feet — higher than today.

A view of the Hudson River and the City of Troy on Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2018, in Troy, N.Y. (Paul Buckowski/Times Union)

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While New York should continue to warm, it likely does not face a "doomsday scenario" of unbearable heat or unending drought from climate change, said Oliver Timm, an associate climate professor at the University at Albany's Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences. But residents can expect more extreme rainstorms, which can cause dangerous flash flooding, he said.

Warmer air holds more water vapor, which then produces more rain. Until the 1990s, about 10 percent of the lower 48 states experienced "extreme" rainstorms, according to the federal report. That figure has been climbing since and is now close to 20 percent.

Intense rainstorms in the Northeast are becoming more common, according to UAlbany research.

Since 1997, there have been 724 storms of 2 inches or more, up 25 percent since the early 1980s. Rainstorms that drop 4 inches or more increased from 55 to 85, and storms of at least 6 inches, considered very rare, increased from 6 to 24.

"These heavy rain events can have severe consequences," said Timm, "particularly when combined with snowmelt from the mountains during the spring."

Route 2 between Cropseyville and Grafton was heavily damaged by flooding from...

4of34A black-legged tick, which can carry Lyme disease and other illnesses. Earlier, wetter springs and later falls in New York will mean ticks have more time to find humans and other mammals to feed on, and will be able to live in more areas, increasing the risk of disease, said LaDeau. "As the tick season gets longer, there will be more time for the population to grow, and to spread," she said.Nearing, Brian/New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation5of34The state's dairy industry could be challenged by higher temperatures, which make cows produce less milk. Overall output in the Northeast could drop by a half-percent, according to the federal report, which reflects warnings that a Cornell University expert gave state lawmakers that heat stress is already costing dairy farmers about $25 million a year in lost production and will likely increase over time. Cows feed at Battenkill Valley Creamery on Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2018, in Salem, N.Y. (Paul Buckowski/Times Union)Paul Buckowski6of34Skiing in New York could be at risk. Another federal report earlier this year projected nearly 250 resorts across the U.S. will see their seasons decline dramatically as natural snowfall lessens and warming temperatures diminish conditions needed for machine-made snow. That report found New York could lose half of its ski season by midcentury. Snow making machines were on full force to get ready for the ski season at Windham Mountain on Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2014 in Windham, N.Y. (Lori Van Buren / Times Union archive)Lori Van Buren7of34There will be shorter winters, less snow, more and heavier rainstorms, autumns that last longer and springs that start earlier. Ski resorts and dairy farmers could face challenges, while growers of some crops, like grapes and soybeans, could do better.

Cabernet Sauvignon grapes hang from the vines at Paumanok Vineyards in Aquebogue on the northern fork of New York's Long Island, Wednesday, July 28, 1999. The grapes, which produce a very rich, full-bodied red wine, will turn red in a process the French call 'veraison,' or ripening of the fruit on the vine.

Click through to see some of the most common arguments against human-caused climate change, and why they're wrong.

Christopher Furlong/Getty Images27of34

"How can climate change be real if it's snowing in ____, where it's rarely cold?"

Nope: Climate change applies to global temperatures, not just in a certain area. Overall, the Earth has been warming since the late 1970s. In addition, The Washington Post explains that "global warming isn't expected to abolish winters in the U.S. anytime soon."Source: The Washington Post

TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images28of34

"Climate change is cyclical and has happened in the past."Not really: While climate change has occurred in the past, it's not because it's cyclical like Earth's seasons. Climate change has and always will be influenced by greenhouse gasses. In other words, climate change isn't a pendulum, swinging from ice age to global warming: it always depends on CO2 levels, and this time, humans are the cause. Source: Skeptical Science

Florian Gaertner/Photothek via Getty Images29of34

"Global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive." - President Donald TrumpClimate change policies and negotiations were actually started by Republicans in the 1980s, with the support of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.Source: Bloomberg

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"Human CO2 emissions are nothing compared to volcanoes."Nope: Volcanoes produce 200 million tons of carbon dioxide, while automotive and industrial activities produce 24 billion tons. Overall, volcano gas emissions "comprise less than one percent of those generated by today’s human endeavors."Source:Scientific American

Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images31of34"Scientists can't agree on a consensus, there's still a debate among the scientific community."Barely:

According to a NASA,"Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities."Source: NASA

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"Climate scientists don't sound very sure... they always use words like 'likely' or 'probably.'"Yeah, but: That's just how scientists talk, even when they're very, very, certain. According to Grist.org, "Scientists are always aware that new data may overturn old theories and that human knowledge is constantly evolving. Consequently, it is viewed as unjustifiable hubris to ever claim one’s findings as unassailable."Source: Grist.org

The Washington Post/The Washington Post/Getty Images33of34

"Global warming is the sun's fault, it's getting warmer."Nope: The sun has been on a cooling trend for the past 35 years, yet Earth's temperatures are still rising.Source: Skeptical Science

NASA/Getty Images34of34

"Antarctic ice is increasing, how can that be if the Earth is warming?"Nope: "Sea ice increases in Antarctica do not make up for the accelerated Arctic sea ice loss of the last decades... As a whole, the planet has been shedding sea ice at an average annual rate of 13,500 square miles (35,000 square kilometers) since 1979, the equivalent of losing an area of sea ice larger than the state of Maryland every year," reported NASA.Source: NASA

Pool/Getty Images

Albany

The American future described in a recent federal climate change report is ominous but sadly not surprising to climate experts in New York like Oliver Timm.

At 1,300 pages, the National Climate Assessment released last week says climate change by the end of the century will shrink the national economy by up to 10 percent, kill more people during heat waves, reduce crop production in the Midwest and Southeast, increase wildfires as some portions of the country dry out, expose coastal cities to extreme floods and increase the spread of Lyme disease and other insect-born illnesses.

The report immediately became a political controversy. President Donald J. Trump, whose administration released the report on Black Friday over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend in an apparent bid to suppress news coverage, said last week that he did not "believe" it since he trusted his "gut" instead. Trump has long insisted climate change is a hoax.

"While this report does not include any groundbreaking new discoveries, it brings together all the current scientific knowledge that we have," said Timm, an associate climate professor at the University at Albany's Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences.

"It looks at all the regions in the country and describes what the impacts will be," said Timm. "It is very comprehensive."

Potential for New York

The report says that if current trends continue, New York's climate will be warmer, wetter and buggier, with a rising Atlantic Ocean threatening people and property along the state's densely populated shoreline, including along the tidally driven Hudson River all the way to Troy.

There will be shorter winters, less snow, more and heavier rainstorms, autumns that last longer and springs that start earlier. Ski resorts and dairy farmers could face challenges, while growers of some crops, like grapes and soybeans, could do better.

The average temperature in the lower 48 states is up about 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1980s, according to the federal report. That is expected to increase by another 2.5 degrees in coming decades "regardless of future emissions."

Depending on whether global greenhouse gas emissions are contained, potential future increases by the end of the century could range from 3 to 12 degrees, it added.

In New York, the average year-round temperature since 1988 has been almost 46 degrees, up from a 44.4 degree average from 1901 to 1960, according to records compiled by The Associated Press.

In the Hudson Valley, including the Capital Region, the average temperature for that same period rose from almost 47 degrees to about 48.8 degrees.

INTERACTIVE: Earlier this year the Associated Press analyzed climate data over the past century and found that the Capital Region's average monthly temperature was 1.9 degrees warmer during the past 40 years when compared to the previous 60-year period.

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The federal report was produced with input from 13 different federal agencies, headed up by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, aided by dozens of volunteer private scientists, like Shannon LaDeau, an expert on mosquito- and insect-borne illness at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Westchester County.

"I don't how you convince anyone who has chosen to ignore rigorous and long-standing science," said LaDeau. "There is no doubt on the science that our Earth is getting warmer, and that humans are the cause. There has not been any doubt on this in a long time."

She added, "The uncertainty now is not about whether there will be change. Whether it will be drastic change or catastrophic change, depending on what responses we make to greenhouse gas emissions."

The bug factor

Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases are surging in New York as the insects, which prefer moist, warm conditions, are expected to continue spreading in the Northeast, according to the report.

In New York last year, there were 11,866 confirmed cases of Lyme and three other major tick-borne diseases, up 32 percent from the year before, according to annual figures recently released by the state Health Department.

Lyme disease accounted for about 80 percent of that total, as the three other main diseases —anaplasmosis, babesiosis and ehrlichiosis — also continued their steady climbs, state figures showed.

This month, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a record number of tick-borne diseases nationwide in 2017 at 59,349, up 23 percent from the year before. That report also warned that such diseases would likely continue to increase, as ticks continue to spread into new areas.

Earlier, wetter springs and later falls in New York will mean ticks have more time to find humans and other mammals to feed on, and will be able to live in more areas, increasing the risk of disease, said LaDeau. "As the tick season gets longer, there will be more time for the population to grow, and to spread," she said.

The recent federal report said tick season in the Northeast, from Pennsylvania to Maine, could be as much as three weeks longer by 2065.

The outlook is similar for mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus, said LaDeau. The federal assessment report said there could be as many as 490 additional annual cases of West Nile virus by 2090, as mosquitoes thrive in a wetter, warmer Northeast.

While the state had no part in the federal report, Environmental Conservation Commissioner Basil Seggos said President Trump tried to "bury" the document by releasing it late Friday on a holiday weekend.

Seggos said that President Trump "can no longer hide what we already know: human-caused climate change is exacerbating and increasing the frequency of catastrophic forest fires, hurricanes, flooding, and harmful algal blooms, leading to significant losses of life and economic costs in the hundreds of billions of dollars."

While New York should continue to warm, it likely does not face a "doomsday scenario" of unbearable heat or unending drought from climate change, said Timm. But residents can expect more extreme rainstorms, which can cause dangerous flash flooding, he said.

Warmer air holds more water vapor, which then produces more rain. Until the 1990s, about 10 percent of the lower 48 states experienced "extreme" rainstorms, according to the federal report. That figure has been climbing since and is now close to 20 percent.

Intense rainstorms in the Northeast are becoming more common, according to UAlbany research.

Since 1997, there have been 724 storms of 2 inches or more, up 25 percent since the early 1980s. Rainstorms that drop 4 inches or more increased from 55 to 85, and storms of at least 6 inches, considered very rare, increased from 6 to 24.

"These heavy rain events can have severe consequences," said Timm, "particularly when combined with snowmelt from the mountains during the spring."

Dairy, ski, sea impacts

The state's dairy industry could be challenged by higher temperatures, which make cows produce less milk. Overall output in the Northeast could drop by a half-percent, according to the federal report, which reflects warnings that a Cornell University expert gave state lawmakers that heat stress is already costing dairy farmers about $25 million a year in lost production and will likely increase over time.

Skiing in New York could be at risk. Another federal report earlier this year projected nearly 250 resorts across the U.S. will see their seasons decline dramatically as natural snowfall lessens and warming temperatures diminish conditions needed for machine-made snow. That report found New York could lose half of its ski season by midcentury.

Sea level rise, and the risk of increased storm surge that goes with it, will also confront New York. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is currently considering plans to construct a massive sea gate at the mouth of New York Harbor.

State projections released in 2015 forecast that the Hudson River in Troy could rise from one to nine inches during the 2020s, between 5 and 27 inches by the 2050s, and between 10 and 54 inches by the 2080s.

By the time a child born in 2015 turns 85 in 2100, the river at Troy could be up as little as 10 inches — or as much as nearly 6 feet. Projected increases were slightly larger farther south. In New York City by 2100 the sea could be between 15 inches and 75 inches — just over 6 feet — higher than today.

Global warming raises sea levels two ways — by melting of glaciers and other ice and by warming seawater, which expands. This century, sea level is up globally by 8 inches.

The Atlantic Ocean has been steadily warming and is up about 1.5 degrees in the last two decades, the federal report says.

Some models estimate that by the end of this century, global sea level increases could range from 4 to 33 inches, depending whether fossil fuel greenhouse gas emissions are constrained. The rise would be much more if the Greenland ice sheet keeps melting, making coastal storms more damaging.

Warmer ocean water, another consequence of climate change, helped cause a 2012 glut of lobsters in the Northeast, the report found. Because of the warmer water in the ocean that year, there was an "earlier and larger lobster catch," the report found, causing a glut that made prices collapse and cut revenue for fishermen.

Timm said Trump and other climate change deniers now "do not deny that the climate is warning. Now they try to take away the credibility of the models, and claim that nobody agrees on what is dangerous."

Timm also disputed conspiratorial claims that scientists are making up climate change out of financial self-interest. "The scientists who aided in this report were not paid," he said. "We are not doing this job for money, we do it because we are curious and want to understand what is happening to the climate."

"We still have options to change to the pathway to how our future will looks," he added. "We can go with business as usual. Or we can convert to more renewable energy. Our grandchildren will benefit from that."

Brian Nearing, the Times Union's environmental and science reporter, has been with the newspaper since 2003.

He previously covered Albany city government and the school district for the Times Union, and during a 30-year career in journalism has worked at daily newspapers in the Capital Region, Ohio and Pittsburgh.