Robert D. Kaplan

The future of world politics will be about which societies can develop responsive institutions to govern vast geographical space and which cannot. Will the growing trend of protests and civil unrest around the world – as demonstrated in the Middle East, Thailand and Ukraine recently – soon spread to countries like Russia and China?

The coming of shale gas will magnify the importance of geography. Countries that have considerable shale deposits will be better placed in the 21st century competition between states, and those without such deposits will be worse off – marking a new determinant in international power relations.