IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal

2: Stressed

3: Crisis

4: Emergency

5: Famine

National Parks/Reserves

Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal

2: Stressed

3+: Crisis or higher

Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:

1: Minimal

2: Stressed

3: Crisis

4: Emergency

5: Famine

National Parks/Reserves

Remote monitoring countries:

1: Minimal

2: Stressed

3+: Crisis or higher

Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

Erratic rainfall and dry conditions persist across most of the country, and parts of every province have received below-average and poorly distributed rainfall. The abnormal dryness has resulted in severe moisture stress for most crops. In parts of the southern and northern regions some farmers are close to completely writing-off the season. There has been little ground water recharge and surface water collection in most areas, resulting in poor water availability and access. The poor rainfall performance is also expected to affect the availability of seasonal green crops for consumption, as well as on-farm casual labor opportunities, rates, and other livelihood sources. The high likelihood of below-average rains for the remainder of the season is likely to significantly reduce crop yields and harvests across most parts of the country.

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes are expected to continue in most northern and high crop-producing areas through March. However, expected below average harvests in April/May will result in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for some households. In contrast, typical cereal-deficit areas in the southern, western, and extreme northern regions are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to depleted own-produced food stocks, constrained livelihoods, and reduced household incomes. Ongoing humanitarian assistance in some of these areas will likely improve outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) through March. However, during the April/May harvest period, and in the absence of humanitarian assistance, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected for some households because of the anticipated poor harvests

In December the average price for maize grain ($0.31/kg) across FEWS NET sentinel markets remained relatively stable. In comparison to last year’s price, maize grain was 27 percent lower, and 21 percent below the five-year average. However, as abnormally dry conditions continue, local farmers and traders are more likely to withhold grain, forcing traders to source maize from relatively distant supply areas. Increases in grain prices were already recorded during the first half of January. Still, factors like the influence of the national liquidity challenges and poor demand due to constrained livelihoods for poor households will contribute to below-average grain prices during the peak lean season (February-March).

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

The information provided on this Web site is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.