Recent aircraft orders (additional A321LRs) and comments by IAG head Willie Walsh are making me think the new airline CLE head Kennedy has been hinting at is probably Aer Lingus. Summer of 2019 is probably as early as it could happen. At least Eaton should be happy.

You're right about Kennedy's mainland comment; but the direction IAG is taking makes me overlook that.

What is "mainland Europe"? The same as "Continental Europe"? IIRC that comment was made while also making reference to the Icelandic flights, so in that context mainland Europe (as apposed to Iceland) could certainly mean Ireland and the UK. I too think IAG is at play here.

Recent aircraft orders (additional A321LRs) and comments by IAG head Willie Walsh are making me think the new airline CLE head Kennedy has been hinting at is probably Aer Lingus. Summer of 2019 is probably as early as it could happen. At least Eaton should be happy.

This is a common post on threads throughout these forums. “Company x” would make this route happen. Realistically how many people in business class would Eaton send a day to Ireland with a nonstop flight?

You're right about Kennedy's mainland comment; but the direction IAG is taking makes me overlook that.

What is "mainland Europe"? The same as "Continental Europe"? IIRC that comment was made while also making reference to the Icelandic flights, so in that context mainland Europe (as apposed to Iceland) could certainly mean Ireland and the UK. I too think IAG is at play here.

Mainland Europe is Spain, France, Germany, Italy, e.t.c, the UK and Ireland wouldn't be considered mainland, just like Hawaii or Puerto Rico wouldn't be mainland US. That seems like a pretty obvious blunder for two high-level officials to repeat, which makes me think it wouldn't be DUB. Don't get me wrong, I would have thought CLE-DUB was the most likely as well, however, the mainland part is confusing...

This is a common post on threads throughout these forums. “Company x” would make this route happen. Realistically how many people in business class would Eaton send a day to Ireland with a nonstop flight?

I honestly have no idea how big Eaton's Irish operation is. Is it like a "Delaware corporation" - just a P. O. Box in Wilmington? Or is it a substantial executive hqs? Probably somewhere in between. No, I don't actually think Eaton could support the route on their own; but I do think DUB would be a very competitive EU connecting hub.

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lakeeffect wrote:

It seems like WN adds a new daily route from CLE every year. Will this be the extension that HOU or DAL finally make an appearance?

UA has added back a lot of IAH capacity with Texan's hurricane recovery about complete and Ohio's shale oil/gas heating up again. It may be time for HOU. What argues against a CLE route is the fact WN is planning to start Hawaii as soon as ETOPS certs. are granted. They may limit adds in other markets until that expansion (who knows how big?) gets implemented.

The first month of CLE-MKE on Southwest had a 46% load factor in November, United had a 70% LF. Obviously with 2x daily mainline Southwest carried over twice as many passengers as United.

But here’s the interesting thing: In November 2016 the total CLE-MKE traffic was about 2,700 passengers. In 2017 with Southwest it shot up to just over 10,000 passengers, that’s a 267% increase for two non leisure markets in November. Even United’s traffic was up 20% year over year to MKE.

While the numbers aren’t that great initially, it shows how much car travel demand between short haul markets can shift to air when the prices come down to reasonable levels. It will be interesting to see how this route does in peak travel months.

I noticed that WN will be running SEA-MKE-CLE direct/no plane change in late summer. That should really prop up these numbers.

The first month of CLE-MKE on Southwest had a 46% load factor in November, United had a 70% LF. Obviously with 2x daily mainline Southwest carried over twice as many passengers as United.

But here’s the interesting thing: In November 2016 the total CLE-MKE traffic was about 2,700 passengers. In 2017 with Southwest it shot up to just over 10,000 passengers, that’s a 267% increase for two non leisure markets in November. Even United’s traffic was up 20% year over year to MKE.

While the numbers aren’t that great initially, it shows how much car travel demand between short haul markets can shift to air when the prices come down to reasonable levels. It will be interesting to see how this route does in peak travel months.

I noticed that WN will be running SEA-MKE-CLE direct/no plane change in late summer. That should really prop up these numbers.

I saw that SEA>MKE>CLE deal and wondered why WN is going out of the way to take that traffic from MDW, STL and DEN. Any thoughts?

The first month of CLE-MKE on Southwest had a 46% load factor in November, United had a 70% LF. Obviously with 2x daily mainline Southwest carried over twice as many passengers as United.

But here’s the interesting thing: In November 2016 the total CLE-MKE traffic was about 2,700 passengers. In 2017 with Southwest it shot up to just over 10,000 passengers, that’s a 267% increase for two non leisure markets in November. Even United’s traffic was up 20% year over year to MKE.

While the numbers aren’t that great initially, it shows how much car travel demand between short haul markets can shift to air when the prices come down to reasonable levels. It will be interesting to see how this route does in peak travel months.

I noticed that WN will be running SEA-MKE-CLE direct/no plane change in late summer. That should really prop up these numbers.

I saw that SEA>MKE>CLE deal and wondered why WN is going out of the way to take that traffic from MDW, STL and DEN. Any thoughts?

MDW is at max capacity. I've always viewed the MKE flight as a way to add extra Chicago capacity from CLE. In my case, I love the WN flight to MKE, I've taken it 3 times back-and-forth now because to the northern suburbs it's so much more convenient than MDW.

Some good and some bad in enilria's weekly post. Nice to see AA add a 5th CLE-DFW.

OTOH, G4 is taking an axe to their end of summer schedules again. Last September they operated about 1.5 daily departures and it looks like this year will be the same. If they follow the 2017 pattern they will build back up by midwinter.

Allegiant's business in Cleveland in September all but evaporates (down 56% from August), much more so than in the other cities. The load factor decline is also greater, meaning business drops even more than the schedule. Why is this? The other CLE carriers do not suffer the same drop; AA even increased it's September volume over August. Maybe because G4 has ULCC competition to prime airports at points where they fly to secondary airports? Or do Clevelanders have a special dislike for G4? Mystery.

Allegiant's business in Cleveland in September all but evaporates (down 56% from August), much more so than in the other cities. The load factor decline is also greater, meaning business drops even more than the schedule. Why is this? The other CLE carriers do not suffer the same drop; AA even increased it's September volume over August. Maybe because G4 has ULCC competition to prime airports at points where they fly to secondary airports? Or do Clevelanders have a special dislike for G4? Mystery.

It's not just Allegiant, Spirit also reduces their CLE flying for the early fall lull to places like MYR, ATL, BOS, MSY, and FLL. With the saturation of ULCC at CLE I think it's hard to fill all these leisure routes on Tuesdays and Wednesdays in September.

I think CLE has already hit its peak with regard to ULCC service. I don't think there's that much more demand to stimulate. I think the saturation at CLE is also making it hard for Spirit to make CAK work. It doesn't appear that the non-stop CAK-MYR flight is returning in the spring. That means CAK's only Spirit flights will be a 5x weekly CAK-MCO from April-May, going daily for the summer, and then back to 5x weekly in September. Last summer NK ran CAK-MCO/FLL/MYR/LAS, so this is a big reduction for such a small station.

Some good and some bad in enilria's weekly post. Nice to see AA add a 5th CLE-DFW.

And it should be noted that it is mainline (MD-80). In the summers on this route, there had been a fifth flight, but it departed super late (around 11:00 PM) and was on an ER-140. I fly this route all the time, and the flight always hovers near full, so I'm not surprised they added some capacity. I wonder if those will stay MD-80 routes through this change. I thought the rest were being retired this year?

It's not just Allegiant, Spirit also reduces their CLE flying for the early fall lull to places like MYR, ATL, BOS, MSY, and FLL. With the saturation of ULCC at CLE I think it's hard to fill all these leisure routes on Tuesdays and Wednesdays in September.

I think CLE has already hit its peak with regard to ULCC service. I don't think there's that much more demand to stimulate. I think the saturation at CLE is also making it hard for Spirit to make CAK work. It doesn't appear that the non-stop CAK-MYR flight is returning in the spring. That means CAK's only Spirit flights will be a 5x weekly CAK-MCO from April-May, going daily for the summer, and then back to 5x weekly in September. Last summer NK ran CAK-MCO/FLL/MYR/LAS, so this is a big reduction for such a small station.

There might possibly be room for NK to add CLE-IAH nonstop service since F9 has discontinued CLE-IAH nonstop service.

Yep for those of us CLE watchers I'm afraid we are entering now a sustained period of peak dullness. The recovery from UA closure is complete or if anything maybe a touch overcorrected, there's very hopeful conversation about an international flight, but that's about it.

Hope for a new hub is about zero unfortunately, there are just too many better airports in the midwest that would be in the running in the very unlikely event that Alaska or JetBlue look for something.

Unfortunately the main airline here United shows little interest in point to point flying (unlike Delta), they have added zero new routes since the retrenchment. Southwest has had the gates now for several years to bump up the schedule a fair amount, yet they only seem interested in modest adds here and there. They've shown no interest in building up an MCI, STL, or heck even a CMH.

Yep for those of us CLE watchers I'm afraid we are entering now a sustained period of peak dullness. The recovery from UA closure is complete or if anything maybe a touch overcorrected, there's very hopeful conversation about an international flight, but that's about it.

Hope for a new hub is about zero unfortunately, there are just too many better airports in the midwest that would be in the running in the very unlikely event that Alaska or JetBlue look for something.

Unfortunately the main airline here United shows little interest in point to point flying (unlike Delta), they have added zero new routes since the retrenchment. Southwest has had the gates now for several years to bump up the schedule a fair amount, yet they only seem interested in modest adds here and there. They've shown no interest in building up an MCI, STL, or heck even a CMH.

This is why my attention is turning to the facility. . . .

Well, the facility certainly needs attention. However, while there are better airports in the midwest should AS or B6 come looking for a hub, there are no better cities than Cleveland---especially with its 5MM people. Actually, as know people will drive 2+ hours for a flight, "Cleveland" could well include Columbus, Toledo, and Pittsburgh (beyond our normal counting of Akron/Canton/Youngstown). What we do have to look forward to is---the 3rd TATL flight--and the growth of O&D demand sourcing from the city's growing Bio and Meds sector.

Notice the CO planes on the Banjo though. CO didn't move to the Banjo until they started the CLE hub build up. UA had some remaining CLE-spokes as late as 1986, about the same time CO started adding flights...by 1987 UA was down to CLE-Hub flights for the most part.

Just came across this article that states Wow released data on its (future) CVG service indicating where people from Cinci are flying to and from where people are flying to Cincinnati. It seems a bit premature to release such info as flights are not set to begin until May, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless. I hope they release such data for CLE a few months from now. Here's the Cincinnati article: https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... ewest.html

Just came across this article that states Wow released data on its (future) CVG service indicating where people from Cinci are flying to and from where people are flying to Cincinnati. It seems a bit premature to release such info as flights are not set to begin until May, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless. I hope they release such data for CLE a few months from now. Here's the Cincinnati article: https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... ewest.html

If CLE ‘s data comes back worse than they thought they only have themselves to blame , citing bad departure times and lengthy layovers !

Dunno about layovers, but to Iceland itself, I like the departure time on WW. Midnight means you get a full day of work done in CLE--and dinner-- before heading to the airport. Just in time to sleep. And you arrive at 10am. On FI, you arrive at 6am. Difficult to check in to a hotel at 6am, though 10am is possible or at least closer to check in time. That said, for the price and other considerations, I just booked on FI and not WW.

Dunno about layovers, but to Iceland itself, I like the departure time on WW. Midnight means you get a full day of work done in CLE--and dinner-- before heading to the airport. Just in time to sleep. And you arrive at 10am. On FI, you arrive at 6am. Difficult to check in to a hotel at 6am, though 10am is possible or at least closer to check in time. That said, for the price and other considerations, I just booked on FI and not WW.

I prefer FI's times if you are not staying in Iceland, as they still allow you to work a full day in CLE, but also make quick connections in KEF to many more European destinations. Also, the arrival time back home is much more civilized (19:15 vs. 23:30). Looking forward to my upcoming trip in May CLE-KEF-TXL-KEF-CLE on FI.

If UA is already short staffed at CLE, forcing staff to take the leave or be fired (which violates their union agreement??) doesn't make sense---is UA planning big cuts at CLE or are they up to something else.... this doesn't smell right. Also, did UA get a break on their lease in CLE? If they did, then they have no reason to operate at scale in the city.

"Cleveland airport lease restructuring: During 2016, the City of Cleveland agreed to amend the company's lease, which runs through 2029, associated with certain excess airport terminal space (principally Terminal D) and related facilities at Hopkins International Airport. The company recorded an accrual for remaining payments under the lease for facilities that the company no longer uses and will continue to incur costs under the lease without economic benefit to the company. This liability was measured and recorded at its fair value when the company ceased its right to use such facilities leased to it pursuant to the lease. The company recorded a special charge of $74 million ($47 million net of taxes) related to the amended lease."

Some good and some bad in enilria's weekly post. Nice to see AA add a 5th CLE-DFW.

And it should be noted that it is mainline (MD-80). In the summers on this route, there had been a fifth flight, but it departed super late (around 11:00 PM) and was on an ER-140. I fly this route all the time, and the flight always hovers near full, so I'm not surprised they added some capacity. I wonder if those will stay MD-80 routes through this change. I thought the rest were being retired this year?

It appears that in June two of the five will be A319's; but the fifth flight has been extended into October, so it's not just a seasonal capacity addition. AA plans to ground almost all of their MD-80s by the end of the year; so more A319s or E175s are probably on the way. Also interesting is AA taking CLE-NYC up to seven on weekdays in June - 4 to LGA and 3 to JFK. It looks like AA plans to be a survivor in that market.

Some good and some bad in enilria's weekly post. Nice to see AA add a 5th CLE-DFW.

And it should be noted that it is mainline (MD-80). In the summers on this route, there had been a fifth flight, but it departed super late (around 11:00 PM) and was on an ER-140. I fly this route all the time, and the flight always hovers near full, so I'm not surprised they added some capacity. I wonder if those will stay MD-80 routes through this change. I thought the rest were being retired this year?

It appears that in June two of the five will be A319's; but the fifth flight has been extended into October, so it's not just a seasonal capacity addition. AA plans to ground almost all of their MD-80s by the end of the year; so more A319s or E175s are probably on the way. Also interesting is AA taking CLE-NYC up to seven on weekdays in June - 4 to LGA and 3 to JFK. It looks like AA plans to be a survivor in that market.

I just flew CLE>DFW on the Super 80 this week both ways. Surely a welcome site to see the 319's. I would also add the Terminal C and A in DFW are much worse than CLE. Sometimes, we're a bit hard on ourselves in this forum. Good to see AA upping their game in CLE with DFW, NYC adds.

I hope CLE can land some A320's to DFW, I remeber when american used to fly from CLE-PHX and for a short time that was served by an A320, It was mostly full too, because I have flown on that flight, but shortl after it was cutt after the US air- AA merger

And it should be noted that it is mainline (MD-80). In the summers on this route, there had been a fifth flight, but it departed super late (around 11:00 PM) and was on an ER-140. I fly this route all the time, and the flight always hovers near full, so I'm not surprised they added some capacity. I wonder if those will stay MD-80 routes through this change. I thought the rest were being retired this year?

It appears that in June two of the five will be A319's; but the fifth flight has been extended into October, so it's not just a seasonal capacity addition. AA plans to ground almost all of their MD-80s by the end of the year; so more A319s or E175s are probably on the way. Also interesting is AA taking CLE-NYC up to seven on weekdays in June - 4 to LGA and 3 to JFK. It looks like AA plans to be a survivor in that market.

I just flew CLE>DFW on the Super 80 this week both ways. Surely a welcome site to see the 319's. I would also add the Terminal C and A in DFW are much worse than CLE. Sometimes, we're a bit hard on ourselves in this forum. Good to see AA upping their game in CLE with DFW, NYC adds.

Agreed on th NYC adds, I hope the schedule sticks- I fly the route a few times a month based on the NYC side and am really happy they brought back the 7pm departure back to the city.

I’m really surprised by the AA NYC growth. Anecdotal of course but I’ve never been blown away by loads on LGA in particular. Of course I don’t know yields. Delta flies the best planes on the route— yeah I know it’s not saying much.

I’m really surprised by the AA NYC growth. Anecdotal of course but I’ve never been blown away by loads on LGA in particular. Of course I don’t know yields. Delta flies the best planes on the route— yeah I know it’s not saying much.

The Kennedy growth could be in response the Icelandic carriers.

Yeah, I was surprised by the JFK additions, I think in the past they’ve flown it 2x daily at most and that usually didn’t last long. One note, they are switching these flights to the 140 from 145s and the 7pm LGA addition from CLE makes them competitive with a Delta, I’ve had to book DL a few times because the 5PM just could work with my schedule...

Anecdotal as well, but I tend to fly the 6:30 or 8:30 pm flights from NYC to CLE and the 5 pm departure returning, loads are usually pretty high from what I’ve seen (only a few scattered seats open), and I rarely see round trips below 350 a Month or so out, actually, CLT flights seems to have more issues, I just booked a flight this week 24 hours before departure cle-clt-ewr for 155 round trip (non stops were 400+)

I’m really surprised by the AA NYC growth. Anecdotal of course but I’ve never been blown away by loads on LGA in particular. Of course I don’t know yields. Delta flies the best planes on the route— yeah I know it’s not saying much.

The Kennedy growth could be in response the Icelandic carriers.

The LGA growth may presage a UA reduction. JFK won't have balanced departure times - dep CLE at 0724, 1200, and 1324, dep JFK at 1530, 1641, and 2030.