Nate Silver: PECOTA actually does think that Kemp's plate
discipline problems will constrain his growth a little bit. We have him
at a .286 EqA at age 22, but that only grows to a .293 EqA at age 26.
That's just a 7-point gain, when ordinarily you'd expect a gain more on
the order of 15 points.

With that said, Kemp is already very good. The numbers he put up in
Jacksonville and Las Vegas last year were HUGE, and remember that he
was seeing each of those leagues for the first time. And there were
things to like about what he did in the majors too. Plus he's got
excellent athleticism to round out his power, so if the plate
discipline DOES come around, watch out.

Mike (Michigan): I finished so I ran out of Dodger questions!
You are saved! Last one:
Why is [Clayton] Kershaw so much better than [Scott] Elbert? Kevin Goldstein certainly
ranks Kershaw higher, but the gap seems much larger in Pecota than I
expected.

Nate Silver: Elbert has pretty serious problems both with
walks and flyballs. Certainly, that's a pattern that some pitchers have
been able to overcome; you see Scott Kazmir on his comp list for
example. But he's got some work left to do. In other words, he's sort
of a garden variety B+ left-handed pitching prospect.

Kershaw, on the other hand, is special. An 18-year-old posting a
54:5 K/BB ratio, giving up zero home runs in 37 innings ... I don't
care if you're in the complex leagues, that's special. And the scouting
reports match the stats.

While one has to take these projections with a little NaCl (Edwin Jackson, anyone?), if Kemp manages to address his plate discipline issues and Kershaw continues to mow 'em down, 2008 could be the start of something special.

Remember, these are "weighted mean" projections. Lowe's projection ranges from 173 innings down to 119 innings. Needless to say, I'm all for being prepared to plug in a Meloan or *gasp* Kershaw if Lowe or Penny struggles.