The trouble with Maxime Bernier

With just over three weeks remaining in the Conservative leadership race, it essentially has become a two-way race between Maxime Bernier and Andrew Scheer.

The search for a viable third candidate has pretty much come down to Erin O’Toole — but there’s no sign the rest of the 13-candidate field is prepared to unite behind him.

The latest Mainstreet Research poll for iPolitics has Bernier leading Scheer by nearly 10 points, 31 to 22 per cent — and “the gap is growing”, says a source at the polling firm. O’Toole is at 11 per cent, Kellie Leitch is in fourth place at 8 per cent, Lisa Raitt’s at 5.5 per cent and Michael Chong is at 4 per cent.

Poll numbers leaked by the Bernier campaign show an even wider gap, with Bernier leading Scheer by 35 to 19 per cent, Leitch at 11 per cent, O’Toole at 10 per cent and Chong at 8 per cent. “That’s quite possible,” said the Mainstreet source.

However, it’s important to remember that, in this race, all ridings are created equal — with 100 votes for each of the 338 electoral districts. ‘Orphan’ ridings in Quebec have the same number of votes as downtown Calgary seats with thousands of CPC members. Mainstreet finds that Bernier’s support is solid — near majority territory — in all regions of Quebec, which, with 78 ridings, has 7,800 of the 16,901 votes needed to win. Quite simply, Bernier is a favourite son among Quebec Conservatives.

The Conservative party mailed out ballots to 259,000 members last week, and according to Mainstreet more than 20 per cent of them have already voted. Party members have been asked to name their top 10 preferences on the ranked ballot.

There are three leading indicators of how a leadership campaign is doing: caucus endorsements, money and ground game. Bernier has all three.

While Scheer has more endorsements — from 23 MPs and seven senators, according to a Hill Times tabulation — Bernier does have seven MPs and 10 senators. O’Toole boasts the most caucus endorsements, with 30 MPs and two senators. (It’s generally assumed that MPs can deliver party members in their own ridings.)

When you talk to the Liberals, many of them say that Chong is the one Conservative candidate they’d rather not face as a Tory leader.

In terms of money, Bernier easily leads the field, having raised more than $1 million in the first quarter of the year, according to Elections Canada numbers released Monday. (O’Leary also raised $1 million in the first three months of the year.)

Leitch is second in fundraising, with $536,000 in the first quarter. O’Toole is third with $424,000 and Scheer is fourth at $400,000.

In terms of ground game, Bernier’s campaign is easily the best-organized in Quebec and is highly competitive in the Conservative heartland of Alberta.

While O’Toole is clearly emerging as the third man, it’s far from clear that he can overtake either Bernier or Scheer without other candidates dropping out and going to him. All of the lower-ranked candidates — Chris Alexander, Steven Blaney, Michael Chong, Pierre Lemieux, Deepak Ohbrai, Rick Peterson, Lisa Raitt, Andrew Saxton and Brad Trost — insist they’re in for the duration.

Chong, for one, was on Facebook Tuesday, making his case again in no uncertain terms: “Our party needs a leader who can attract new voters to the Conservative coalition, a leader who welcomes all Canadians who share our Conservative values. I am that leader. I will build a Conservative Party that can defeat the Trudeau Liberals in 2019.”

Actually, when you talk to the Liberals, many of them say that Chong is the one Conservative candidate they’d rather not face as a Tory leader. He represents cultural diversity, has a compelling family narrative — Chinese and Dutch parents liberated by Canadian soldiers in the Second World War — and clearly belongs to the progressive wing of the Conservative party. He favours a carbon tax to fight climate change. He’s a social progressive and a fiscal conservative — a Red Tory, a representative of a wing of the party that was marginalized during the Stephen Harper years. O’Toole is similarly regarded as a moderate Conservative.

As for the two front-runners, Scheer is regarded as a social conservative on family issues — pro-life on abortion, though he says he has no intention of raising the issue again in the House. And he says he would cut off federal funds to universities that do not defend freedom of speech. On the fiscal framework, he says he would balance the budget within two years.

Bernier represents the libertarian wing of the party; he would abolish supply management in dairy and poultry (even though his own riding of Beauce has hundreds of dairy farmers) and end government subsidies for Canadian companies such as Montreal-based Bombardier’s aerospace division.

The Liberals would love to run against him on both issues in Quebec. Bernier also comes with baggage from his time in the Harper cabinet (particularly from his stint in Foreign Affairs), although he received good marks as small business minister in the last Conservative government.

Can he win the country? Not unless he puts some water in the wine of his platform.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

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L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of six books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94.