Last week, Rishi Sunak predicted we are facing a recession the likes of which we have never seenCredit: AFP or licensors

In mid-April, Chancellor Rishi Sunak was still saying that the UK would bounce back from the economic impact of this pandemic.

But last week he predicted we are facing a recession the likes of which we have never seen.

But cocooned as we are in the relatively cushioned existence of lockdown, it’s hard to imagine what that will actually mean for our everyday lives when we emerge from it.

Many people’s salaries are more or less intact, thanks to the Government’s furlough scheme. The shock will come when that scheme ends, bringing a new wave of unemployment — predicted by some to be in double digits by the end of the year.

As a result, the tax that we rely on to pay for essential public ­services such as the NHS, police, teachers and even MPs dwindles catastrophically.

This will put a colossal strain on government funds. One result will be a reduction in finance for public services — and never-ending cuts.

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The gloomiest assessment of our future is that we don’t need to worry about whether restaurants will reopen, or fear airlines going bust, because we won’t be able to afford to eat out or holiday anywhere.

We will be working hard to stand still, which is a rotten position to be in.

At the moment, the Government is paying the wages of ten million ­people and giving them loans to survive. That was and is the right thing to do.

But the cost to the public — ­estimated to be £337BILLION this year — will be vast. And it’s growing all the time.

Whichever way you look at it, with lockdown we have swallowed a very poisonous pill. In fact, it may go down in history as the greatest act of self-harm any civilisation has ever inflicted upon itself.

Yes, it has saved some people, although not enough of the elderly living in care homes.

But we have created a financial burden on the country that will last a generation. The economy is in freefall. It contracted 5.8 per cent in March, which is the biggest decline on record. Forget a recession — some say we face a depression.

Usually this means higher public borrowing, higher taxes and an end to triple-lock pensions.

'BOUNCE BACK'

Whatever happens, let’s just say that Boris Johnson’s election pledge not to raise income tax, National Insurance contributions or VAT for five years is on thin ice.

But if the Government tries to cover this exceptional cost from the current economy we will crash — and we will all be worse off.

Rather than start taxing everyone to the hilt, I can see a better solution — with interest rates at rock bottom levels, the

Government should borrow the money instead, because if taxes rise too quickly it will halt growth. And growth in the economy is the single most important step to recovery.

So we need to borrow, and spread the debt over a long period of 20 to 40 years, like the old wartime bonds, to cover the short-term shortfall. If we borrow over a long enough period we could actually increase spending in the short term to incentivise growth.

And if we bounce back, we can pay off our debt more quickly.

We just need to get out of lockdown to get this process started.

WE MUST NOT TAKE RISKS

Shops and businesses must open up and start trading again. And we have to get the schools open.

People cannot work if their kids are not in school or in high-quality childcare.

If trains and buses are too crowded for people to get to work, we have to find other ways to travel, or work from home if we can.

But, perhaps most importantly, we have to accept that this virus is here and it’s not going away.

We have to protect the most vulnerable, and those at risk should remain in lockdown for their own safety.

The rest of us must take responsibility for ourselves. We need to keep social distance, wear facemasks, wash our hands and stay at home if we have symptoms. We must not take risks.

But the quicker people get back to work, the more the recession can be moderated — and we all have a part to play in that.

Meating of minds

AS proposals go, the one by the man who set out five sausages like fingers on a plate, with his grandmother’s ring on the fourth one, could have been more romantic.

Although he also wrote, “Will you marry me?” in HP Sauce on some toast.

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He wrote 'Will you marry me?' in HP Sauce on some toast

Presumably this man understands his girlfriend well enough to know what she likes.

And when she stopped laughing, I’m guessing she probably said yes.

After all, it’s the thought that counts.

No 'sir' deserves it Moore

THIS week, something wonderful happened.

It was announced that Captain Tom Moore will be awarded a knighthood after raising a remarkable £39million for NHS charities.

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It was announced that Captain Tom Moore will be awarded a knighthoodCredit: crown copyright

Cpt Tom, who just turned 100 and has been promoted to honorary colonel, said on Good Morning Britain he is “thrilled that Her Majesty has chosen poor little me to be knighted”, adding: “It really is a great honour and something I never ever anticipated.

“It never, ever entered my head that something like that could happen to me.”

But this genuinely could not be more well-deserved.

With all the misery we have had to endure over the past few months, this is a little ray of sunshine.

Bravo again, Sir Tom.

Nude nurse

DID anyone else get the giggles at this picture, right, of the Russian nurse wearing only her undies beneath a transparent protective gown?
The nurse, who works on an all-male coronavirus ward, said her PPE was so hot she could not wear clothes at the same time.

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The nurse said her PPE was so hot she could not wear clothes at the same timeCredit: Tulskie Novosti

Hospital chiefs were not amused and ­punished the nurse for “non- compliance with the requirements for medical clothing”.
But when you see the faces of the patients behind her, it seems she perked them up no end.
In fact, it probably made their day.

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Hospital chiefs were not amused and ­punished the nurseCredit: East2west News

Commons a calmer chamber

ONE of the many revelations of lockdown is what a different place the House of Commons is without most MPs being there in person.

There are far fewer places for people to hide without the armies of grown men and women braying and shouting over each other.

Perhaps one silver lining of lockdown will be a more respectful atmosphere in the Commons.

We're all heroines at home

I’VE been reflecting this week on what I’ve learned during the pandemic.

Yes, I could share my theories here about human kindness and human idiocy, both of which have been on display in abundance over the past couple of months.

Many of us have had time to think about what really matters and what doesn’t.

We probably all have a mental list of things we most value from the “old” life, as well as silver linings and the benefits of the new way we have been living.

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SOCIAL JUSTICE OR SOCIAL DISTANCE?

bezos bites back

But as we enter the ninth week of lockdown (or is it tenth? I am honestly losing count) my main conclusion, after a good deal of thought, is this: Women really do have superpowers.

Most of the women I know are managing to . . . work from home, look after and home-school their children, cook and clean, shop for essentials, provide entertainment and keep up their family’s spirits, clap for carers and of course bake banana bread once a week.

Now that’s what I call multi-tasking.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak states that it's 'very likely that the UK is facing a significant recession' as country battles coronavirus