Pages

Sunday, September 28, 2014

When I last wrote about LipoScience (NASDAQ:LPDX) in May, I pointed out that there was a reasonable chance that LabCorp (NYSE:LH)
could acquire the company. LipoScience has struggled mightily as a
public company, but the struggles have been related more to the
company's limited resources and not the value or quality of the
LipoProfile test. That prediction has come home to roost now, as LabCorp
announced that it will in fact be acquiring LipoScience.

This deal by no means rescues the call I made
on LipoScience back in my first piece on the company for Seeking Alpha,
as the premium paid by LabCorp only makes it an incrementally
less-lousy call. For LabCorp, though, this is a solid (albeit small)
tuck-in deal and the sort of acquisition that could produce some
worthwhile value down the road.

The reinsurance markets remain quite challenging today, as companies like Everest Re (NYSE:RE)
find themselves sandwiched between double-digit price declines in many
reinsurance lines and low rates of return on their investment portfolio.
Everest Re has been doing a good job of managing through this tough
period, using new products and revised strategies to grow despite the
pricing pressures and maintaining a solid balance sheet.

I liked Everest Re six months ago as something of a relative value play in the sector
and the shares have done alright since then. I do still think that
there are opportunities for Everest Re to turn the changes in the
industry to its favor (including managing/advising third-party capital),
but rate pressure is going to take a toll on returns and the shares
aren't quite as interesting to me now. I still like Everest Re as a
company, but I just happen to think that there are more interesting
risk-reward opportunities in areas like life and P&C insurance.

Friday, September 19, 2014

Badly beaten-down stocks can often look quite tempting to investors
who appreciate how often the Street overshoots both during good times
and bad. In the case of coal, though, that remains a difficult trade.
Asian producers like China Shenhua (OTCPK:CSUAY) and PT Bukit Asam (OTCPK:TBNGY) continue to perform relatively well (as I've written here and here), but weak met coal pricing and ongoing rail disruptions in the Powder River Basin are bedeviling Arch Coal's (NYSE:ACI) operations.

Very
few analysts are willing to stick their necks out for Arch Coal at this
point, with five Strong Buy/Buy ratings matching the Underperform/Sell
ratings (and 11 in the middle at "Hold"), and the short interest is
around 15%. There is certainly still a real risk that met coal prices
don't recover as expected (or should I say hoped?) in 2015 and beyond,
and likewise a risk that domestic thermal demand declines further.

It's
also very difficult to construct a model wherein these shares look
truly cheap. All of that said, Arch Coal has about $1.25 billion in
liquidity today, no major maturities until 2018, and may be able to
limit the cash burn to $500 million between now and a return to positive
free cash flow in 2017 or 2018. I'd much rather own China Shenhua, PT
Bukit Asam, Peabody (NYSE:BTU), or Cloud Peak (NYSE:CLD)
from a safety/certainty standpoint, and I still think Arch Coal is
looking at a very difficult road, but I suppose there's a play here for
investors who think that coal pessimism could bottom.

If you've been waiting for a better price on Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (NYSE:BIP),
you really haven't missed much. Between some lackluster reported
results in the second quarter and more general concerns that BIP is
facing a much more competitive bidding environment for assets, the
shares haven't really gone anywhere this year - up about 2% on a
year-to-date basis (excluding distributions) and up a similar amount from my last piece.

I
still like Brookfield Infrastructure as a well-run long-term play on
global infrastructure assets that range from coal terminals to railroads
to electrical transmission to ports and toll roads. I can understand
why the Street may worry that management's commitment to 8%-11% annual
FFO growth will push them to overpay for assets, but I think that
underrates their capabilities when it comes to recycling capital as well
as the inherent advantages of being able to look at (and acquire) a
wide range of asset types.

I still like NYC office real estate specialist SL Green (NYSE:SLG),
as I have for some time now. Even amidst a pretty warm REIT market (up
about 17% year-to-date), SL Green continues to do well, rising more than
6% since my last article and slightly outperforming Boston Properties (NYSE:BXP) and Kilroy (NYSE:KRC), while keeping pace with Vornado (NYSE:VNO).
Even with high occupancy rates and an a real estate cycle that many
believe is getting long in the tooth, SL Green is still looking for ways
to add value, including recycling its capital and expanding outside of
its core focus in office property.

I'm reluctant to abandon a good
company/stock only because of valuation; I think it's easier to have
certainty that you've found a good company than it is that you have the
valuation perfectly dialed in. Be that as it may, I'd probably be more
cautious about entering these shares now, particularly when there are
cheaper-looking Asian property developers out there, as well as other
financials and REITs that seem to offer more upside.

You're going to be noticing that my writing is much less consistent (in frequency) going forward and for an unknown length of time. My partner of 20+ years is about to start a fight for her life against cancer and her needs are going to come first, second, and every other slot on the board. Some days I'll probably want to be doing investment analysis/writing ("work therapy" and all that) and other days I'll be too busy with other things or just not feeling it.

I believe that CapitaLand's decision to reacquire all of CapitaMalls Asia
played a meaningful role in this outperformance, but I don't think that
is the only trick up management's sleeve. Although the property markets
in Singapore and China are in rougher shape now, I don't believe the
company has much value at risk and there are attractive opportunities on
the way to re-price below-market leases in its Chinese mall business.
The key question is still whether or not management can lift ROEs back
into the high single-digits or low double-digits, but I still believe
that they can (and will) and that these shares have value to around
$6.50/ADR.

I should also note here that CapitaLand is not
particularly liquid as ADRs go. Investors should be careful when buying
(limit orders are a good idea) or try to buy the much more liquid
Singapore-listed shares, as most large brokers now make international
trading available to retail investors at affordable commissions.

Endo International (NASDAQ:ENDP)
has been very acquisitive over the past couple of years, using deals to
not only leverage its tax-advantaged Irish domicile but bulk up what I
believe is an underrated generics business. Tuesday's announcement of an
offer to buy Auxilium (NASDAQ:AUXL)
makes quite a bit of sense; not only is their potential tax leverage
here, but Endo's strong legacy position in urology could improve uptake
of Auxilium's key drug Xiaflex and recharge Endo's branded drug
business.

Six months ago I described Gordmans Stores (NASDAQ:GMAN) as a "falling knife",
but since then the shares have acted more like a sharknado. The stock's
45% drop since then can't be explained away by a difficult environment -
stocks like Stein Mart (NASDAQ:SMRT), TJX (NYSE:TJX), and Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST)
haven't been ripping higher, but they haven't been nearly as weak as
Gordmans. Despite better inventory management, Gordmans can't seem to
get its merchandising/assortments right and the comps and margins are
suffering as a result.

Maybe, just maybe, things might be looking
up. Gordmans recently named Andy Hall as the new CEO, replacing interim
CEO T. Scott King who took over when Jeff Gordman announced his
retirement earlier in the year. Hall brings good experience as the
former CEO of Stage Stores (NYSE:SSI)
and has already laid out some common sense near-term initiatives.
Gordmans is still looking at a long road back to growth, and I wouldn't
dismiss the competitive threat of the likes of TJX's T.J. Maxx and
Marshalls, Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), or Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT),
but the absolute pounding that this stock has seen (down 75% over the
past year) has already washed out a lot of expectations.

Until September began, my March call that Torchmark (NYSE:TMK) still offered some upside was looking okay, as the stock was doing a little better than other insurance names like Prudential (NYSE:PRU), MetLife (NYSE:MET), and Lincoln National (NYSE:LNC).
After the S&P revised its outlook lower, though, the shares have
shed a few percentage points on worries that management may have to pull
back a bit on buybacks.

I suspect that the S&P action was
less relevant from a fundamental perspective and more likely a good
excuse for managers to take some gains on an insurance stock that had
risen close to 60% over the past two years. What's more, there are a few
suggestions in recent earnings reports that growth may be a little
harder to come by in the short-to-medium term. While I still like the
fundamentals here, and the shares haven't exactly shot through my prior
target, this may be a case where investors want to shop around a bit.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

If your company produces significant quantities of iron, you've had a
tough year in the stock market. If your company only produces iron,
it's been a pretty ugly year. Diversification has helped Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP), and Anglo American (OTCPK:AAUKY), but Vale (NYSE:VALE) and Fortescue (OTCQX:FSUGY)
have seen their shares weaken significantly (down about 19% over the
past twelve months) as iron prices continue to test predictions of just
how low prices can fall before finding a floor.

It's dangerous to
assume that commodity prices can't continue to fall once they've crossed
the threshold where many/most producers operate at a loss (ask
investors in met coal or uranium mining companies), but Vale is one of
the rare iron ore miners that can still make money at current prices.
With low prices starting to lead to production cutbacks and deferred
mine expansion plans in various parts of the world, maybe this is a time
to consider Vale shares. Brazil's election cycle still represents a
risk, as does China's economy and the significant amount of low-cost
iron supply available in Australia, but these shares do seem to hold
some upside here.

Continuing my run through Brazilian commodity companies that have had disappointing results this year, I come to Braskem (NYSE:BAK) - Brazil's large polyolefin and PVC producer. Like the steel companies Gerdau (NYSE:GGB) and CSN (NYSE:SID),
Braskem has underperformed in the face of weakening domestic demand and
fears that the Brazilian national election could bring in a government
less supportive of the structural barriers that allow them to charge
higher prices in Brazil.

I liked Braskem six months ago
and I still believe the shares are undervalued. Even amidst an
underwhelming domestic market, the general expectation is that Braskem
will still see year-on-year EBITDA growth in the high single-digits for
2014 and double-digit growth in 2015. What's more, I think Braskem is
looking at a window of opportunity (before major cracker project
start-ups in the U.S.) where its naptha-based production can still be
quite profitable. There's a not-so-fine line between being patient and
being wrong, though, and these shares could still disappoint further.

Take all of the issues with the Brazilian steel industry, weakening
domestic demand and increasing import competition in particular, and add
on weakness in the iron ore market and a lot of leverage and you have
the challenges facing Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (or CSN) (NYSE:SID)
today. CSN does have some definite positives working in its favor,
including strong share in the higher-value Brazilian galvanized steel
market, high domestic prices, and low-cost iron operations, but plunging
iron ore prices and a weak domestic steel market have largely
overshadowed them.

As operating companies, I like Ternium (NYSE:TX) and Gerdau (NYSE:GGB)
better than CSN. Both are more geographically diversified and have yet
to reap the full benefits from upgrading their production portfolio and
integrating their inputs. That said, recoveries often benefit stressed
companies more and CSN could outperform if Brazil's recovery comes
sooner (and/or stronger) than expected or iron ore prices recover.

I thought that Brazilian steel producers like Gerdau (NYSE:GGB) were beaten down badly enough earlier this year that they'd be better stocks for the remainder of the year.
That was a big mistake, as the struggles of Brazil's economy have only
gotten worse. With new construction activity slowing down and auto
production down by double-digits, Chinese imports on the increase, and
domestic prices weakening, Gerdau shares have fallen another 15% since
that March piece.

Stubbornness can become very expensive in
investing, but I do think Gerdau can do better. I don't see that
improvement as being too likely this year though, and the company's
North American operations aren't big enough to outweigh the weak results
in Brazil. There's no reason to own Gerdau if you think 2014 results
are more or less the "new normal", but if construction and industrial
production recover after Brazil's election, Gerdau could be a prime
beneficiary.

This has been a doubly frustrating year for Ternium (NYSE:TX), as this Latin American steel company has languished alongside other steel producers like ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) and Gerdau (NYSE:GGB) while Nucor (NYSE:NUE) and U.S. Steel (NYSE:X)
have enjoyed better years. I say doubly frustrating, as although many
Latin American industrial companies have done fairly well, worries about
the economic situations in Argentina and Brazil have sapped investor
enthusiasm.

While I liked the shares six months ago,
they have fallen another 10% since then and a sizable second quarter
EBITDA miss did not help. I still believe that Ternium is well-placed to
benefit from Mexico's growing auto sector and improving spending on
construction and energy. Likewise, I believe the eventual exploitation
of Argentina's sizable energy reserves will support steel demand there.
That all sounds nice, but the "when" is very much in doubt and the
prospect of weak steel prices fueled by low iron ore prices and weak
Brazilian demand is real. Ternium seems undervalued on what I believe
are trough multiples to 12-month EBITDA, but the prospect of further
downward revisions cannot be ruled out.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

To its credit, BB&T (NYSE:BBT)
continues to do what it needs to do. The company's management is
looking to deploy capital that it can't use in its lending operations,
and M&A is likely to remain a centerpiece of that strategy.
Management is also remaining focused on reducing operating expenses - a
key item on the to-do list for a company that otherwise generates a lot
of positives from its asset base. Neither the recent Investor Day nor
the acquisition of Bank of Kentucky (NASDAQ:BKYF)
really change the long-term value to a significant extent, but they're
positive incremental developments for a company/stock that remains
undervalued.

I had been bullish on Taminco (NYSE:TAM)
for a little while, seeing it as an undervalued specialty chemical
company with a strong foundation in functional amines, specialty amines,
and crop chemicals. Eastman Chemical (NYSE:EMN) apparently shared my feelings, as the company announced an acquisition last Thursday at the $26 fair value I indicated in my last piece.

While
there is a 30-day "go shop" period for Taminco, I'm not counting on a
rival bidder to emerge (though Taminco is a relatively rare quality
asset), and I look for Taminco to further Eastman's decade-long
transition toward a specialty chemical focus. The immediate upside for
Eastman looks relatively modest (around 5%), but I wouldn't
underestimate the added diversity, specialty markets, and synergy
potential that Taminco will bring with it.

For quite some time, the story on Siemens (OTCPK:SIEGY)
was one of almost perpetual disappointment and questions as to when
management would get it together and deliver on the underlying potential
of a business that has leadership in multiple attractive markets. With
management's strategy update in May, though, it seems like a lot of
sell-side analysts have come back on side with Siemens and are looking
for good revenue and margin progression as management takes a more
realistic view of costs and its true core markets.

I'm still a bit more skeptical. The shares of Siemens have kept up with peers like General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Rockwell Automation (NYSE:ROK) over the past year, while outdistancing those of ABB (NYSE:ABB) and Schneider (OTCPK:SBGSY) as most of the whole sector trails Honeywell (NYSE:HON).
I do like Siemens' focus on electrification, automation, and
digitalization, but it takes some pretty ambitious assumptions to get
near the price targets floated by bullish sell-side analysts. While I'm
no Siemens-hater by any stretch, I just don't see the great bargain that
others seem to feel is available today.

Orders continue to roll in pretty nicely for large commercial trucks, but major suppliers like Cummins (NYSE:CMI), Tenneco (NYSE:TEN), and Allison (NYSE:ALSN)
haven't really been showing it in their share prices. Whether it is
concerns about weak conditions in Latin America or valuations that got a
little overheated earlier in the year, these shares haven't done much
since I last wrote about Allison in March.

I
thought back in March that valuation might be getting a little
stretched, but with this stretch of relative underperformance, I'm
getting more positive on Allison. The company will likely see some
headwinds created by Ford (NYSE:F) and Volvo (OTCPK:VOLVY),
but I like the company's opportunity to leverage its new TC-10
transmission into greater metro Class 8 share. Longer term, the key
question remains whether or not the company can coax companies in
Europe, Latin America, and Asia to adopt automatic transmissions despite
the greater success. I think the process will take some time, but in
the meantime Allison offers attractive margins and cash flow leverage,
though the valuation is still not an obvious "gimme".

Fiber laser pioneer IPG Photonics (NASDAQ:IPGP)
continues to execute pretty well, though you may not know it from the
reaction of the market. I still liked the long-term fundamental story
back in March, but thought the valuation was getting a little steep. Since then, the shares have gone almost nowhere (while large laser rival Rofin-Sinar (NASDAQ:RSTI) has declined a few percentage points).

I
think the last six months or so may be an example of a pause that
refreshes. Fiber lasers continue to gain share in core markets like
cutting, welding, and marketing, and IPG Photonics continues to develop
products for multi-hundred million dollar applications like UV
microprocessing, aluminum and high-strength steel welding, and sapphire
glass cutting. IPG Photonics continues to leverage its cost and
manufacturing advantages and hasn't seen a particularly deleterious
impact from Chinese competition yet. With the shares looking about 10%
undervalued, I'm warming up to IPG Photonics as a stock to acquire at
these prices.

Ideas tend to breed other ideas - doing my regular and routine due diligence on component and subsystem companies like Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR), Avago (NASDAQ:AVGO), and JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU) has led me to dig deeper into Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ:AAOI).
This company looks like an interesting play on the 10G/40G data center
upgrade cycle, as well as fiber to the home, with a strong core
competency in lasers. This is a highly competitive space, though, and I
think readers may do well going into it with the assumption that any
investment relationship is likely not to be of the long-term variety.

Monday, September 15, 2014

As great as Alexion (NASDAQ:ALXN) has shown itself to be with its orphan drug Soliris for rare kidney ailments, Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ICPT)
may be establishing a similar path in the until-recently overlooked
world of liver disease outside of hepatitis C. Intercept's lead compound
OCA appears to have broad utility as an anti-inflammatory,
anti-fibrotic liver treatment and the efficacy in nonalcoholic
steatohepatitis (or NASH) may unlock potential akin to that of new HCV
treatments.

It is important to point out, though, that there is a
lot of risk in biotech investing and particularly in companies where the
expectations are almost solely built around a single product. Making
matters worse, there is considerable uncertainty as to the true number
of potential patients for many of the diseases Intercept is targeting,
to say nothing of uncertainty regarding competition, pricing, and
clinical endpoints for clinical trials. Despite these risks, I believe
Intercept ought to be trading closer to $420 today and even then I
consider the underlying assumptions to be quite conservative.

Saturday, September 13, 2014

The bloom is definitely off of the ag bull market, as lower crop
prices have soured investors on seed, ag equipment, and fertilizer
companies. None of that is positive for Allana Potash (OTCPK:OTCPK:ALLRF,
(AAA.TO)), nor is the fact that potash pricing remains stuck around
$350 per ton. These shares have continued to weaken since the company
announced a major tie-up with Israel Chemicals (OTCPK:ISCHY) and since my last piece. While the Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF (NYSEARCA:SOIL) is down about 2% since my mid-March update on Allana, the company's shares themselves are down another 20% or so.

Granting
that investors were disappointed in the terms of alliance with ICL, and
granting that there is still more dilution likely on the way (as the
company still needs to raise debt, and probably equity, to fund its
Danakhil project), I continue to believe these shares are undervalued.
By no means is Allana anything other than a high-risk investment, but
ICL appears committed to the project, and I believe the current price
doesn't give much credit to the value of the project.

While I
generally recommend avoiding "F-type" ADRs and buying shares on local
exchanges when possible, Allana's ADRs are more liquid than most
unsponsored ADRs. Even so, I'd advise owning the Toronto-listed shares
when/where that is an option.

Investors who like Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR) or Alkermes (NASDAQ:ALKS) may want to take a look at Britain's Vectura Group plc (OTC:VEGPF)
(VEC.L). Although not a household name, Vectura has established itself
as a technology leader in the formulation and manufacture of inhaled
drugs and devices to administer these drugs. Vectura boasts a key
partnership with Novartis (NYSE:NVS) for potential blockbuster Ultibro as well as Seebri, as well as a diverse pipeline of generic and branded respiratory drugs.

Vectura
Group has multiple avenues to growth. The company can continue its
policy of being a partner of choice for companies that wish to enter the
large (and still under-served) market for therapies for respiratory
ailments like COPD and asthma, or the company can choose to start
developing and commercializing drugs on its own - transitioning from
earning mid-single digit to mid-teens royalties to being a more fully
fledged specialty pharmaceutical company. While there are risks
associated with the performance of its licensing partners, clinical
development risks, and potential risks from a long-term change in
strategy, I believe Vectura could be almost 50% undervalued today.

Readers
considering these shares should note that the U.S. ADRs are of the
"F-type" and not very liquid. The London-listed shares (VEC.L) are
considering more liquid and most major brokerages will allow clients to
trade on major foreign exchanges like the LSE.

Friday, September 12, 2014

A key item on F5's (NASDAQ:FFIV)
management to-do list for 2014 was to make convincing progress with
software and hardware offerings that continue to expand the company's
total addressable market beyond its legacy application delivery
controllers (or ADCs). So far, so good, as F5 has seen strong interest
in its security offerings while continuing to build out a comprehensive
array of offerings for the service provider market. I'm a little more
cautious now given the valuation, but five straight beat-and-raise
quarters shouldn't be overlooked and the valuation is not extreme or out
of line relative to the opportunities.

Not unlike Danaher (NYSE:DHR), the very successful conglomerate to which Colfax (NYSE:CFX)
is so often compared, the problem with Colfax is not the quality of the
businesses, the margin/growth potential, nor the quality of management
or long-term opportunity. The issue is valuation. Colfax bulls seem to
be so eager to find that next Danaher that they continue to award Colfax
very generous multiples even despite multiple quarterly misses in the
last two years. Much as I admire Colfax and find the growth opportunity
to be compelling, I can't get comfortable with a take-no-prisoners
valuation today.

Back on July 25, I predicted that Microsemi (NASDAQ:MSCC) would likely stay active in the M&A arena and less than two months later the company has delivered - announcing the acquisition of Centellax.
Microsemi also took the opportunity to introduce a new share buyback
program and to confirm its fourth quarter growth guidance. Although none
of these announcements meaningfully change the near-term picture for
Microsemi, they're the sort of incremental positive moves that I've come
to expect from this company and the Centellax deal could follow in the
footsteps of past deals like Actel that add meaningful value down the
road.

There has been plenty of skepticism regarding Spanish wind turbine company Gamesa's (OTCPK:GCTAY)
ability to continue to compete in the volatile and very competitive
global wind turbine market. While Gamesa has had past challenges with
product quality, project financing, and its cost structure, management
has been doing a good job of executing a turnaround plan based on better
margins and a focus on growth markets like India, Brazil, and Mexico. I
do think Gamesa can continue to outperform on volumes and margins, but a
lot of this is in the share price now and I believe Gamesa management
must begin convincing investors that it has a follow-on strategy in
place to not just survive in the market but to thrive as a leading
player.

Water infrastructure company Layne Christensen (NASDAQ:LAYN)
has been a hurry-up-and-wait story for a while now, and while there
have been some encouraging signs of life in parts of the business, there
is still a lot work ahead of the company. I do believe the shares look
undervalued on a long-term basis, but this company has disappointed a
lot of investors over the years and the departure of the CEO, CFO, and
chief accounting officer in quick succession make me nervous, as does
the company's ongoing leverage to highly competitive, lower-margin
businesses.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Arch Capital (NASDAQ:ACGL)
is often lauded as a well-run insurance and reinsurance company and a
good stock to own for those seeking more defensive exposure to
insurance. Interestingly, while Arch Capital may be labeled as defensive
because of management's disciplined underwriting and strong capital
management, Arch Capital's shares have underperformed peers like ACE Limited (NYSE:ACE), RenRe (NYSE:RNR), and XL Group (NYSE:XL) by more than 10% on a year-to-date basis.

I didn't like the valuation all that much six months ago,
but down another 5% from then I'm starting to warm up to the stock. I
like the potential for Arch to be a share-taker in the mortgage
insurance industry, and I expect the company's specialty insurance
business to be stickier through this tough pricing cycle than others
apparently expect. The reinsurance business is a risk and I do worry
about an overall downward shift in valuation and sentiment for insurance
stocks, but these shares are starting to look tempting.

Sometimes how you manage the Street matters almost as much to the
performance of your stock as how you manage the business. At first
glance, Triangle Petroleum's (NYSEMKT:TPLM)
fiscal second quarter results should have pleased investors, and the
stock was up prior to the company's conference call. Unfortunately,
management didn't really address some questions about production with
the specificity that investors would prefer and a longer timeline to
potentially breaking up the business also seemed to discourage some
investors.

Investors who were expecting revolutionary changes from ABB (NYSE:ABB)
at its Capital Markets Day, as opposed to evolutionary tweaking and
fine-tuning, were setting themselves up for disappointment but ABB
delivered a pretty positive message overall. Management sounds
increasingly confident that the troublesome power business is under
control, and also laid out some credible arguments as to why this is a
worthwhile business for the long term. Some may be disappointed that ABB
seems disinclined to pursue large M&A or a company-changing
strategy shift, but I'd call this day a success and the shares look like
one of the few bargains in the industrials space.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

I liked HD Supply (NASDAQ:HDS) as a play on recovering construction and infrastructure markets
back in March, but I wasn't expecting a nearly 25% move in the shares
over the next six months. This was not just a "rising tide lifts all
boats" sort of move either - industrial distributor MSC Industrial (NYSE:MSM) and electrical distributor WESCO (NYSE:WCC) are both up over that period as well, but only by about 3% and 5%, while Rexel (OTCPK:RXEEY), Wolseley (OTCQX:WOSYY), and Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST)
are in the red over that stretch. What has helped HD Supply greatly is
that management is delivering on its guidance and establishing
credibility with its plans to outgrow its underlying markets by a
meaningful amount over the next few years.

I still believe that HD
Supply is more of a momentum play than a value story. Even with
expectations of a construction/infrastructure recovery and internal
growth initiatives supporting double-digit growth over the next five
years and long-term sales growth of 8%, I can't really get to an
attractive discounted cash flow number. I don't expect that to matter
much, though, so long as the company can continue to deliver
above-market growth and ongoing margin leverage.

Japan's Hoya Corp. (OTCPK:HOCPY)
is what I think a lot of American investors wish more Japanese
companies were like. Hoya focuses on markets where it has strong share
(instead of operating numerous sub-scale businesses), continually looks
to drive out costs and improve margins, and is comparatively eager to
consider M&A and the return of capital to shareholders. It also
happens to operate solid businesses, with the company's legacy
electronics and imaging businesses producing good cash flow and the
health care and medical businesses offering better long-term growth.

Where
Hoya is more like typical Japanese equities is in valuation. Japanese
equities frequently trade with lower implied discount rates, which can
make it hard to find attractively-priced companies by DCF methodologies.
I liked Hoya six months ago
despite some reservations about valuation, and the shares have risen
another 12% since then (about 16% for the Tokyo-listed 7741.T shares).
Hoya doesn't look undervalued, but the company has an opportunity to
make value-building acquisitions today and I'd at least consider keeping
this name on a watch list.

Up more than 30% over the past year and more than 10% since my last update, I can't really complain about MTN Group (OTCPK:MTNOY).
Although the company still has a lot of work to do in South Africa, and
maybe more work to do than is commonly appreciated in Nigeria, the
company's overall trends in subscribers and margins are looking pretty
good. 3G and data remain significant growth drivers, as does mobile
money, but MTN Group's valuation seems to largely reflect those
opportunities. I'm reluctant to sell a well-run and broad-based play on
Africa that could generate double-digit long-term FCF growth, but I
can't claim that today's price is a tremendous bargain for new
investors.

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (NYSE:WAB),
or Wabtec, is the sort of company that chronically only looks cheap in
the rear view mirror. Wabtec has strong share in the relatively
concentrated U.S. market for technologies and components that go into
rail cars, locomotives, and transit cars/locomotives, and is moving to
replicate that share overseas. Add in a willingness to acquire its way
into new markets and an increasing mix of electronic components, and the
basic market opportunity looks appealing.

Now, what do you want
to pay for it? Wabtec already trades at more than 13x forward EBITDA and
appears to price in mid-to-high teens annual FCF growth for the next
decade. There's little argument that Wabtec is a leader in large markets
and produces strong returns on capital, despite an aggressive ongoing
M&A policy. For investors who can take a "don't worry, be happy"
view on valuation and/or make a credible argument that Wabtec's growth
rate will exceed that which is already implied in the valuation, Wabtec
could still be a name to consider but value-focused investors may find
it a harder case to make.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Arcos Dorados (NYSE:ARCO) has been every kind of lousy, falling another 28% since the last time I wrote about the stock.
Since that last article, the situation in Venezuela has gotten worse
and between Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, and Mexico, Arcos Dorados has
problems in markets that represent around 90% of the business. If that
wasn't enough, I believe management's options to improve margins are
more limited than I previously appreciated and the company is
uncomfortably sandwiched between capex obligations to McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), violations of its debt covenants, and limited cash flow prospects.

Even
with a hack-and-slash to growth expectations, shares could be more than
30% undervalued on a long-term cash flow basis but I have to admit less
and less confidence in the long-term outlook for Arcos Dorados.
Instead, I'm more willing to value the stock on 8x 12-month EBITDA,
which works out to just $7/share. Maybe my capitulation here marks some
sort of bottom, and I do still believe that the combination of
McDonald's brand value and an under-penetrated fast food/quick service
sector in Latin America can still produce value, but you have to have an
iron-clad risk appetite to hold this name right now.

Through the third week of July, my March call to not worry too much about the problems Copa Holdings (NYSE:CPA)
was facing in Venezuela seemed like a good one - the shares were up 25%
as the company continued to enjoy 20%-plus earnings growth on strong
capacity growth and firm pricing. Unfortunately, Copa's second quarter
report sourced investors on the shares as management increased its
capacity reduction plans for Venezuela and lowered margin guidance as a
result, leading to flat net performance relative to my last article.

I'm not sure why the guidance reduction was such a surprise. Avianca (NYSE:AVH) and Gol Linhas (NYSE:GOL)
had been reducing exposure to Venezuela and Copa management indicated
in May that they'd follow suit, and it was (or should have been)
well-known that Venezuela was an uncommonly profitable market for Copa.
Copa's update for July trends was not positive, though, and it is going
to take some time to work past the Venezuela impact and reassure the
Street that this is still a very profitable airline.

I believe
Copa is still a good airline, a good growth story, and a good name to
own for international diversification. GOL is probably an easier name to
own right now (and undervalued in its own right), but I still see solid
opportunity at Copa. Even I take a pretty conservative cut to my
earlier numbers, I come up with a fair value of close to $140 and
$150-plus is not that hard to support.

It is certainly true that not all retail is the same and that has
been quite clear over the last six months in China's retail sector. Food
retailers like Sun Art (OTCPK:SURRY) and China Resources Enterprise (OTCPK:CRHKY) are struggling through weak same-store sales growth, but footwear and sportswear retailers like Belle (OTCPK:BELLY), Daphne (OTCPK:DPNEY), and ANTA Sports (OTCPK:ANPDY) are doing quite a bit better despite unimpressive same-store growth in the footwear business.

I have mixed feelings about Belle shares after this better than 10% move since my last update.
I think Belle has a very good business (six of the top ten women's
footwear brands in China and a long run of double-digit returns on
capital), but management still has a lot of work to do with its online
strategy. I'm also a little concerned about valuation, as the market
seems to already be pricing in at least 8% annual free cash flow growth
across the next decade.

Another six months are in the books, and little has changed for the better at China Resources Enterprise (OTCPK:CRHKY).
The Chinese food retail environment continues to be a tough one, with
most of the major players seeing their comps turn negative. I believe
CRE remains well-placed to benefit from growth in its beer JV and
beverage business, and I continue to expect management to drive better
long-term results from the Tesco (OTCPK:TSCDY)
joint venture. In the meantime, though, it will be hard for these
shares to get ahead while the Chinese food retailing market remains weak
and while investors remain concerned over the near-term losses that CRE
will absorb from the Tesco JV.

Since missing sell-side estimates for the second quarter and guiding to slower loan growth and higher expenses, BB&T (NYSE:BBT) shares have had a rougher go of it. While the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSEARCA:KBE) has climbed more than 1% since BB&T's report, and direct rivals like Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), PNC (NYSE:PNC), and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) are all in the green, BB&T shares have fallen more than 3%.

I
believe that BB&T still has a lot to offer investors. The company
is continuing to build its franchise, as seen in a recent deal for Citi (NYSE:C)
branches in Texas, and will be hosting its first Investor Day in six
years on September 11. The branch acquisition is a good use of capital
to grow the business and this Investor Day is a chance to convince the
Street that the company has a good plan for cost reduction, loan growth,
and capital deployment. I believe BB&T shares are about 10%
undervalued today, making it one of the better risk/reward/quality
trade-offs in the banking sector right now.

By just about any reasonable standard, Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY)
is an exceptional pharmaceutical and diagnostics company. Through
internal efforts and acquisitions large and small (particularly
Genentech), Roche has become one of the largest players in oncology,
with particular strength in biologics. That strength has in turn led to
double-digit free cash flow growth over the past decade and solid recent
share price performance.

As a shareholder, though, I'm starting
to get a little concerned by some of the changes at and around Roche. I
might be making mountains out of mole hills, but I also remember what a
mentor told me when I joined the buy-side in my mid-20's, "Your job now
is to be a professional worrier; it's the things you don't worry about
and check out that will bite you in the ". With that in
mind, while I see a lot of positives at Roche that merit ongoing
ownership, the direction of the firm does leave me more willing to
consider selling the shares.

Despite relatively good returns on capital and a solid asset base, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY)
hasn't really been at the top of the Street's list of favorites in the
oil and gas sector. Now, management is pushing on with an ambitious
restructuring plan that will see its once-core California business spun
out on its own, a likely sell-down of its assets in the Middle East and
North Africa, and a more aggressive drilling program in the Permian. All
told, Occidental should be looking at better production growth and
stronger returns than most large peers, with an enhanced oil recovery
program supporting a decent dividend. A combination valuation
methodology supports a fair value above $110, which I think is a decent
implied return.

Monday, September 8, 2014

The past year has been a pretty good one for the shares
of at least some companies leveraged to commercial construction
activity. The crane companies (Terex (NYSE:TEX), Manitowoc (NYSE:MTW), and Manitex (NASDAQ:MNTX)) had a rough time in the wake of second quarter results, they're up 27% to 42% over the past year. United Rentals (NYSE:URI) and Hertz (NYSE:HTZ),
both of which rent various types of equipment to the construction
industry, have also joined in, climbing over 100% and almost 20%,
respectively.

Then there is Essex Rental (NASDAQ:ESSX).
One of the largest owners and renters of crawler cranes in the United
States, these shares are down almost 40% as the company continues to
languish with weak utilization of traditional crawlers and uninspiring
revenue and EBITDA performance. It seems to be getting better, though,
as the company is implementing a new customer-centric strategy,
expanding some of its offerings, and seeing improving utilization and
order inquiries. Add in pretty positive recent trends in non-residential
construction indexes and maybe this marks a potential turnaround point.

Before
going further into the details, it is important to note that Essex is
tiny (a sub-$100 million market cap) and not very liquid (an average
volume of less than 50K shares/day). That increases the risk and makes
it less likely that Essex Rental will gain the attention and support of
sell-side analysts.

For a biotech that has reported encouraging clinical results and seeks to address a significant market, Synergy Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SGYP)
can't get much love. I can appreciate that there's a funding overhang
here and that the market doesn't always embrace drugs that look like "me
too's", not to mention a general move away from risky smaller names,
but I think those concerns miss a lot of positives at this
development-stage biotech.

I don't think plecanatide is just a Linzess wannabe, and I believe direct-to-consumer marketing efforts from Sucampo (NASDAQ:SCMP) and Actavis (NYSE:ACT) (and maybe Salix (NASDAQ:SLXP)
down the road) will raise awareness of prescription treatments for
constipation and IBS. Moreover, I think plecanatide offers some
meaningful quality-of-life advantages that may be underappreciated
today. It seems to me that the market currently values Synergy as though
it will be forced to market plecanatide on its own (an expensive
proposition), but I believe some sort of partnering arrangement, if not
an outright sale of the company, is more likely and these shares look
undervalued today.

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Companies leveraged to metalworking have seen pretty mixed
performance in both their reported financials and stock performance this
year. Hardinge (NASDAQ:HDNG) and Kennametal (NYSE:KMT) are both down double-digits on a year-to-date basis (about 22% and 15%, respectively), while MSC Industrial (NYSE:MSM) (a distributor, not a manufacturer) is up more than 12% and Hurco (NASDAQ:HURC) is up close to 50%.

I
continue to be bullish on Hurco. The company's announcement in mid-July
of a patent on combination 3D-printing and CNC machining certainly got
some attention, but the basic underlying business at Hurco is
progressing well and I believe that is the more important factor. I do
have some concerns about the sustainability of order growth and gross
margins, but these shares continue to look undervalued to me.

Optical components manufacturer Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR)
has become a miserably bad call for me. Six months ago, I wrote that I
would never want to hold Finisar for the long term and that I thought
the shares were already trading at their inherent DCF-based value (with
some bullish assumptions). I also thought, though, that momentum in the datacom business would support the business
in the near term and lend strength to the shares. With the stock down
more than 20% over the past six months, though, that clearly has not
happened.

I didn't see a
lot of intrinsic value in the shares six months ago, and I don't see
much now either given the company's lower guidance. I can also construct
a bearish scenario that would see the company retest the $11-$13 range.
Finisar is part of a volatile sector and is heavily shorted, though,
and the shares could bounce if business conditions improve and the
company delivers beat-and-raise quarters. I do think that Finisar has
good technology in 40G/100G transceivers and transponders, as well as
opportunities with its wavelength selective switches and ROADM cards,
but this is a pretty tough sector for value-oriented buy-and-hold
investors like me.

Prior to a very strong August, the past six months finally saw Wall
Street lose some of its ardor for water and flow control companies like Xylem (NYSE:XYL) and Mueller Water Products (NYSE:MWA). I did think that Mueller Water looked a little pricey on the fundamentals
back in March, but I didn't expect the Street to ditch housing and
water plays like Mueller just because of valuation. While the shares are
down about 4% from my March article, it was actually quite a bit worse
than that (a 20% drop) before a strong recovery after fiscal third
quarter earnings.

Even though Mueller has lagged the S&P 500
by more than 10% over the past six months, that comes after a good run
of performance and the shares aren't exactly strikingly cheap unless
you're willing to go along with double-digit forward EBITDA multiples
and aggressive assumptions regarding future cash flow. I do like this
business, and it looks like both municipal spending and land development
activity are improving.

Saturday, September 6, 2014

When I cooled on Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) six months ago, my concerns were largely about valuation
and the risk that market expectations were getting a little hot for a
company that still had some real challenges in boosting margins (not to
mention competing with the likes of Huawei, Alcatel Lucent (NYSE:ALU), and Infinera (NASDAQ:INFN)). I didn't expect a 23% fall, though, and the reaction to Ciena's disappointing fourth quarter guidance seems a bit much.

To
buy Ciena today I think you need to have confidence that the upgrade
cycle is going to last at least five years, that non-traditional
customers (like Web 2.0 companies) will continue to represent a growth
opportunity, that Cisco's (NASDAQ:CSCO) efforts to move down the stack will only go so far, and that Ciena can leverage the Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC)
partnership to improve its OUS share and its overall margins. That's a
lot to digest, and I don't want to suggest that you have to accept all
of that to be more bullish than the Street, but if Ciena can reach (and
keep) a double-digit FCF margin and generate long-term revenue growth in
the mid-single digits, these shares are getting interesting again.

In prior pieces on small-cap med-tech Novadaq Technologies (NASDAQ:NVDQ)
I've warned investors that emerging med-tech stories don't have smooth,
seamless ramps and that this stock's exceptionally high valuation (at
least on the short-term outlook) was an invitation to volatility. That
has all come home to roost, as the shares that were once 68% above the
price where I wrote on them as a Top Idea are now 2% below that level and down about 5% from my more recent piece in May.

I
remain a believer in the technology and the market opportunity for
Novadaq. There are literally hundreds of thousands of procedures (if not
millions) every year where Novadaq's imaging technology makes clinical
and economic sense, and with revenue potential of hundreds of dollars
per procedure the numbers can get big pretty quickly. Competitive
entries seem inevitable (though Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG)
has gone unchallenged for a while now) and the company has to navigate
an increasingly contentious end to its relationship with LifeCell. Even with those risks, I remain bullish on these shares and believe a fair value in the high teens is reasonable.

As Top Ideas go, Miller Industries (NYSE:MLR) hasn't really worked out so far. Up about 13% since my original late September piece, the shares have done alright compared to Spartan Motors (NASDAQ:SPAR) and Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK), but they've lagged the S&P 500 and Supreme Industries (NYSEMKT:STS).
While none of these are particularly good comps (Supreme is more
focused on truck bodies, Spartan on emergency response and delivery
vehicles, Oshkosh on aerial work platforms, defense, and
fire/rescue/refuse), I think the problem is that access to capital for
small businesses (and most towing companies are smaller businesses) is
still limited and Miller is an illiquid stock with no sell-side support.

I
still believe this is a stock that can generate market-beating returns
over the long term. Double-digit revenue growth is not the "new normal",
but catch-up/replacement spending should generate above-market growth
for a few years and the company's offshore growth efforts offer
meaningful upside. I'm not looking for particularly ambitious margin
improvements, but I think the shares are about 20% undervalued today.

It has taken a while, but Air Transport Group (NASDAQ:ATSG) is finally starting to show some of the potential I thought I saw back in September of 2013 and again in March of this year.
While the shares are up almost 30% since that March piece, they are up
only about 15% over the September piece and lagging the market isn't a
cause for celebration.

Air Transport Group appears to be in the
right place and if not at the right time, at least at a better point in
time. The company has retired its DC-8 fleet, has a solid fleet of 767s
and good growth potential in its relationships with Cargojet (OTC:CGJTF) and West Atlantic.
Air cargo demand is improving (particularly for mid-sized freighters)
and the company should start generating free cash flow this year. I
think relatively conservative assumptions can support a fair value well
into the $9s, and it is not that hard to get into the low double-digits,
and I think there's still further for these shares to go.

Back in the spring of this year, I thought Dana Holding (NYSE:DAN) looked like a good name to own in the commercial vehicle components/parts space. Since then, the shares have outperformed a range of rivals and comps, including American Axle (NYSE:AXL), Federal Mogul (NASDAQ:FDML), GKN plc (OTCPK:GKNLY), and Cummins (NYSE:CMI)
(a commercial vehicle comp, but not a competitor), but have lagged the
S&P 500 in part due to weaker-than-expected demand for trucks in
South America and weaker global demand for ag equipment. I still believe
there's a solid margin improvement story here (one that management is
delivering), leverage to emerging market growth, and the potential for
value-adding M&A, but the undervaluation of the shares isn't enough
to call it a must-buy today.

I wasn't all that bullish on Ur-Energy (NYSEMKT:URG) six months ago, as I thought the company's positive qualities
as a top-quartile U.S. uranium producer were offset by the ongoing
risks in the uranium market at that time (and excessive optimism for a
near-term price recovery). I didn't necessarily expect another 25% drop
in Ur-Energy's share price over the following six months, though, and
today's price is a lot more interesting as a play on an eventual
recovery in the market. Though I'm still concerned that Japanese reactor
restarts will underwhelm and that Kazatomprom is ready and
waiting to increase supply on a price recovery, the combination of
low-cost reserves, expansion potential, and disciplined management at
Ur-Energy is getting more and more compelling.

I don't think it's unfair to ask if Monsanto (NYSE:MON)
is running out of rabbits to pull out of its hat to satisfy the
notoriously short-term attention spans of the Street. The Brazilian
launch of Intacta has gone well, the company's Climate Corp offerings
are off to a good start, the company maintains an impressive lead in
trait development, and has multiple long-term opportunities like
dual-stack soybeans, microbials, and biocides. Yet, the company no
longer posts big quarterly beats and expectations for next year have
come down due in part to weaker fundamentals in the corn market.

I
believe it's a matter of perspective. For long-term investors, I don't
think there's a better ag company out there, and I expect Monsanto to
widen its lead in the seed/traits business, add new opportunities to its
productivity/protection business, and really make the most of its
Climate Corp offerings. In the short term, though, the shares have held
their own with DuPont (NYSE:DD) and Bayer (OTCPK:BAYRY) and beaten Syngenta (NYSE:SYT), but the going may be getting a little tougher.

I have a feeling that FEI Company (NASDAQ:FEIC)
is going to be the sort of stock that adds to my collection of grey
hairs. There's not a lot to criticize in terms of the quality of the
company - it has built leading share in electron microscopy with a broad
range of offerings (scanning electron, transmission electron,
dual-beam, fixed ion beam, et al) and has made a point of using
innovation and product development to essentially create new market
opportunities for its technology. Margins are pretty good and the
company has put together a solid recent run of annual returns on
invested capital.

The issue, then and now, is price. I thought FEI Company looked too pricey in February
and the market did punish the company for consecutive cuts to sales
guidance, but it's not exactly cheap yet. On the other hand, quality
scientific equipment companies don't often trade at bargain prices and
FEI Company is looking at multiple growth opportunities across its end
markets. I'm inclined to maintain "price discipline" here and wait for a
better price/value trade-off, but I won't be surprised if a strong
third quarter (a beat-and-raise) sends these shares back into the high
$80s or above.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

I did think that Newfield Exploration (NYSE:NFX) was undervalued by the Street
back in mid-Feburary, but more on the order of 40% and not the nearly
75% move the stock has delivered since then. Selling the Granite Wash
assets for nearly $600 million was a nice development and the company
has posted good results from recent wells drilled in Oklahoma and the
Uinta. Looking ahead, the company is prioritizing the de-risking of the
Oklahoma SCOOP and STACK plays and looking to sell its Chinese assets. I
may yet be underestimating the potential here, but a 75% move in six
and a half months seems like plenty for now.

It may be a cliché, but there's something to the idea that investors
ought to be cautious when a stock price seems too good to be true. I'm
quite well aware of the vulnerabilities and problems of modeling net
asset values for E&P companies like Penn Virginia (NYSE:PVA)
(it's a pretty typical case of "garbage in, garbage out"), and I'm
likewise aware that the Street doesn't like stories where the company
has been missing production expectations.

Penn Virginia shares are up about 13% from the last time I wrote on the company, beating the EPX Index but lagging other notable Eagle Ford operators like EOG (NYSE:EOG), Halcon (NYSE:HK), and SM Energy (NYSE:SM).
That appreciation would seem to understate the meaningful value added
since then through acreage acquisitions, ongoing drilling success in the
core Lower Eagle Ford, and more recent success in wells testing the
Upper Eagle Ford. While another recent downward production revision
hasn't helped sentiment, and neither has recent weakness in oil prices,
these shares look too cheap unless you believe oil prices can't hold $90
and/or the Upper Eagle Ford won't live up to these initial hopes.

It hasn't been a boring six months since the last time I looked at Lightstream Resources (OTCPK:LSTMF) (LTS.TO). I was pretty lukewarm on the shares
at that time given the company's high debt, iffy production growth
outlook, and execution challenges in the Bakken. Since that last
article, the shares dropped about 15% in the first month, roared back
with a nearly 70% gain, and then pulled back by a third, ending down
about 2% since my earlier article.

So will the real Lightstream
please stand up? On the plus side, Lightstream earns some of the best
netbacks in the Canadian E&P sector, has a pretty robust drilling
inventory across the Cardium, Bakken, and Swan Hills, and generates good
capital returns. On the negative side, recent disappointments with Swan
Hills and mechanical issues with Cardium wells have rattled investors
and management still has some work ahead to deliver on 2014 asset sale
goals. On balance I see less execution risk at Baytex (NYSE:BTE)
for investors looking for smaller E&P companies with sizable
dividends, but Lightstream's relative underperformance has left it
looking quite a bit cheaper.

As one of the large operators in the Bakken (in terms of leased acres), Oasis Petroleum (NYSE:OAS)
certainly isn't immune to the various concerns investors have about the
space, including price differentials and the threat that well returns
will decline as less promising formations are targeted. Oasis also has
to deal with some concerns that are more company-specific like the
question of whether their acreage is of lower quality and whether the
company will overpay for acquisitions.

Despite these concerns, Oasis has done okay since my last write-up
- rising almost 16% while the EPX Index has risen about 11%. On the
other hand, when compared to the performance of other Bakken operators
like Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), Whiting (NYSE:WLL), or Triangle Petroleum (NYSEMKT:TPLM)
that comparison becomes much less favorable, as these producers have
seen their shares rise more than 40% and more than 50% (WLL, TPLM) over
that same time period. Although I think there are reasons for Oasis to
trade at some discount to these other names, the results over the last
half-year or so seem a little extreme and Oasis is starting to look more
interesting again on a relative basis.

Search This Blog

About Me

I started this blog as a way of archiving my writing for sites like Investopedia, as well as posting some thoughts on the markets, stocks, or whatever else strikes my fancy.
Feel free to email me.
You can reach me at tuonela (dot) fool (at) gmail (dot) com

Get My Articles Delivered By Email

Followers

Subscribe To

Disclaimer

This blog represents the opinions and views of its author.

Information is taken from sources believed to be reliable but no warranty or guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.

Investing involves risk and requires proper due diligence. In no way should a reader should presume this blog represents personalized financial advice or is a substitute for proper due diligence. The author expects you to be enough of a grown-up to realize this.