Tuesday, November 27, 2012

2012 N.L. Shortstops

I haven't focused much on
expert prices in this series of retrospective articles. Primarily this is
because while the prices used to be an interesting exercise in highlighting
expert league differences, in 2012 they became yet another banal example of how
there is nothing new under the sun in Roto.

Ten Most Expensive N.L.
Shortstops 2012

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

1

Troy Tulowitzki

$9

36

-28

35

37

37

36

$32

2

Hanley Ramirez

$25

36

-11

34

39

36

36

$16

3

Jose Reyes

$29

30

-1

29

30

30

32

$36

4

Starlin Castro

$26

28

-1

28

27

28

28

$30

5

Dee Gordon

$11

23

-12

24

22

24

22

$13

6

Jimmy Rollins

$26

22

4

23

22

22

23

$27

7

Emilio Bonifacio

$12

18

-6

17

17

20

19

$28

8

Ian Desmond

$28

17

10

17

18

17

17

$18

9

Marco Scutaro

$23

14

9

16

14

13

13

$15

10

Zack Cozart

$11

12

-1

11

11

13

13

$2

Average

$20

24

-4

23

24

24

24

$22

The expert leagues
and Rotoman almost match exactly. The difference between CBS
and the other two leagues and Rotoman is in the decimals; CBS
is sixty cents per player behind Tout Wars on this group of 10 and closer to every other grouping.

For those of you that don't
remember (and shame on you for not memorizing this stuff), crazy prices on the
elites in 2011(Hanley, Tulo) skewed CBS's prices in contrast to the other expert
leagues, putting them in a position where they were asking for big losses on
top shelf talent. Yes, a $3 difference on Reyes and a $2-3 difference on Castro
wasn't chicken feed, but it was nothing compared to the weird desire to pay
nearly $50 for Ramirez and Tulowitzki.

Meanwhile, Rotoman was
the conservative voice in the room in 2011. $21 for Rollins, $16 for Castro,
$15 for Desmond....Rotoman was saying the heck with these
bums, I'm not paying for Castro's sophomore slump, Rollins' age, or Desmond's
limited ceiling.

But that was then and this
is now. In the hypothetical four-way battle between the expert market and Rotoman,
CBS gets Scutaro, LABR gets Ramirez and Desmond, Tout Wars gets Bonifacio,
and Rotoman gets Reyes. As you might imagine in a market where
there's a 60-cent logjam, there are many, many ties.

Top 10 N.L. Shortstops 2012

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

1

Jose Reyes

$29

30

-1

29

30

30

32

$36

2

Ian Desmond

$28

17

10

17

18

17

17

$18

3

Starlin Castro

$26

28

-1

28

27

28

28

$30

4

Jimmy Rollins

$26

22

4

23

22

22

23

$27

5

Hanley Ramirez

$25

36

-11

34

39

36

36

$16

6

Marco Scutaro

$23

14

9

16

14

13

13

$15

7

Everth Cabrera

$17

0

17

1

R3

$0

8

Rafael Furcal

$14

10

4

7

12

10

10

$8

9

Emilio Bonifacio

$12

18

-6

17

17

20

19

$28

10

Zack Cozart

$11

12

-1

11

11

13

13

$2

Average

$21

19

2

18

19

19

19

$18

Looking at the best
shortstops instead of the most expensive ones doesn't do much to change the
portrait. Cabrera and Furcal replace Tulo and Gordon. But even with these
changes, the market and Rotoman are still mostly in lockstep.

Despite the strong performances
last year, shortstop looks and feels like a thin position once you get past the
first few hitters. Scutaro, Furcal, and Rollins are all on the wrong side of
the age curve. Cozart might get better but I don't see a big jump from him.
Cabrera could be a $25-30 hitter if everything works out for him, but I
wouldn't recommend betting that on a one-dimensional shortstop.

CBS didn’t flip their
prices in reaction to the talent, though. It looks like they stayed consistent
on the guys on the bottom and moved their prices down on the guys at the top.
Ramirez certainly was more of a risk entering 2012, but LABR and Tout Wars
still found more money for him. Tulo didn’t seem like much of a risk, but the
once aggressive CBS hung back. The money had to go elsewhere, but it wasn’t
redistributed here.