With two dictatorial allies of the West chased out of their palaces in Tunisia and Egypt, the strongmen that rule Iran are celebrating the 32nd anniversary of their revolution, which brought Islamists to power and made them the region’s most dynamic political force.

Tahrir Square may reverse that revolution and end the futile Arab struggle against crusaders, colonialists, Zionists and other ghosts, turning people’s energies toward improving their lot instead.

Which Arab regime will fall next? The smart money (and the Al Jazeera cameras) have moved to Yemen, Algeria, Jordan, Bahrain, and the Palestinian Authority — all regimes that we finance as part of the War on Terror. Few are betting on the hard-line dictatorships in Syria, Gaza or Iran itself to lose their grip on power.

President Obama finally settled on the right call last Thursday, congratulating Cairo’s pro-democracy forces that brought down President Hosni Mubarak, while cautioning that it’s only the start. He also corrected his own 2009 mistake: Administration officials used last week’s Egypt moment to encourage a similar move in Iran.

That’s an uphill battle, though. Egypt’s revolution was largely bloodless because all sides — the Tahrir protesters, the army and even Mubarak — realized early that violence would hurt their cause. There were too many TV cameras on the square to use the tactics that for ages have kept Mideast potentates in power.

Not so Iran. The government mostly blinded (or smashed) the TV cameras and cut Internet use before stepping up its arrests of regime opponents. Last month alone, The Wall Street Journal reports, Iran carried out 87 executions of opponents and criminals — more than the an nual tally in 2005, when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad assumed power.

So it was in the rest of Iran’s sphere of influence. Al Jazeera cameras weren’t prominent last week in Damascus, where President Bashar Assad’s regime — representing an Alawite minority in a largely Sunni country — is rounding up any would-be Tahrir-like organizers.

Syrians still remember 1982, when Hafez Assad razed the town of al Hama to the ground and massacred 40,000 of its residents who dared to challenge his dictatorship. His son is trying to keep that memory fresh.

In Gaza, Hamas celebrated the fall of Mubarak by sending its supporters to the streets — and then forcefully banning any demonstration that would challenge its own rule. (It also escalated the shelling of Israel’s southern towns.) Lebanon last month saw the de facto collapse of its pro-democracy 2006 Cedar Revolution as the heavily armed Hezbollah took over.

Compare that to Jordan, where King Abdullah — just like Assad — represents a Hashemite minority that rules over a mostly Palestinian population. Tahrir has shaken the kingdom, a longtime stalwart US ally. The king fired his cabinet and reinstated food subsidies, trying to catch up with street demands. But observers tell me of a key change: In the past, the country’s ire was mostly directed at government bureaucrats; this time, the people are quickly losing respect for the palace.

In Yemen, President Ali Saleh — financed by Washington to fight al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula — may soon lose his delicate game of playing the country’s various sects and factions against each other. In Bahrain, a Shiite minority agitated by Iran is gaining. Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has long tried to keep the lid on Tahrir-like protest, is now teetering.

America’s foreign policy has come a long way since 1939, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt reportedly said of Nicaragua’s dictator, “Somoza may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.” No American could, or should, be unmoved by Tahrir and the hope that Egypt, the most populous Arab country, will soon reassume its regional leadership role by becoming a full-fledged, or even a partial, democracy.

But note that, so far, the only dictatorships that collapsed — and the ones that seem most likely to be next — are on our side. The most ruthless, anti-American regimes, for now, seem least likely to fall.

As the Mideast makes its first hesitant steps toward democracy, we must remember that human nature tends to favor winners. If Iran and its ruthless allies survive a battle that our allies are losing, political Islam may recapture the public’s imagination. That could help their side, including Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, wind up with all the marbles. beavni@gmail.com