Justin Bernier, Mark Greenberg compete for ‘conservative’ title in 5th District race

With five serious candidates competing for the Republican nomination for Connecticut’s 5th District Congress seat, splitting a relatively small number of primary votes five ways, a candidate could win in August by doing very well with a few niche constituencies.

The biggest of these niches, depending on whether a candidate can generate excitement and turn them out to vote, could be religious conservatives.

On Tuesday, Bernier touted his endorsement by the American Conservative Union, which organizes the popular annual CPAC conference, which has traditionally served as a rite of passage for national candidates establishing their credentials with religious conservatives.

Sam Caligiuri

Two years ago, Bernier and Greenberg finished a strong second and third – with only 1,008 votes separating them – behind Republican nominee Sam Caligiuri.

That vote was split three ways instead of five ways, and it featured three pro-life candidates. And one could argue that Caligiuri, among the three, connected best with religious conservatives.

Bernier and-or Greenberg could be the big surprise in the August Republican primary if they can hold on to their support from two years ago and win over some voters who backed Caligiuri two years ago but might refuse to support a pro-choice candidate this year.

Fewer than 29,000 votes were cast in the 2010 primary.

One might expect a higher turnout with this year because the 5th District is an open seat and the race is getting a lot of attention. But even if 40,000 Republicans turn out this year in the 5th District, Bernier’s 9,267 votes in 2010 and Greenberg’s 8,259 look pretty good in a race split five ways instead of three ways.

It’s also unclear how much of Caligiuri’s support in 2010 – he won the primary with 11,287 votes – came from the same religious conservatives Bernier and Greenberg are courting this year.

Bernier and Greenberg never really stopped running for Congress, and have improved as candidates since their 2010 campaigns. They are also likely to spend more on their campaigns this year than in 2010, and Greenberg is expected to drop well over $1 million of his own money on the race.

Which leaves a choice between Bernier and Greenberg that could come down to who makes more of a point to reach out, courts and organize them.

Bernier could have an edge depending on how closely voters tie these social issues to their religious background. Bernier is Catholic in a very Catholic district. Greenberg is Jewish.

But Greenberg can lay claim to more stringent stands on issues such as abortion and gay rights.

Bernier is pro-life but would make exceptions in cases such as rape and incest.

He believes that “marriage should be between a man and a woman,” but he supports civil unions, respects the right of states to adopt gay marriage as Connecticut has, and says that his time serving in Afghanistan has led him to support the right of gay and lesbian soldiers to serve openly in the military.

Email Matt DeRienzo at mderienzo@journalregister.com. Follow him on Twitter @mattderienzo.