Polls: Voters may not care, but donors do

Polls are like football stadium scoreboards during the 2015 Louisiana governor’s race, where fans of the candidates can follow each twist and turn of the campaign.

Election polling can generate momentum for a candidate on the rise or dry up donors for one trying to catch a falling knife, but voters rarely make their decision based on the predictive surveys, analysts told Gannett Louisiana.

“Generally polls don’t have a significant effect on how someone will ultimately vote,” said Josh Stockley, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana at Monroe.

But that doesn’t diminish their importance within the individual campaigns, he said.

“The more significant side to polling is reflected behind the scenes, particularly among donors,” Stockley said. “Donors want to know they’re not wasting their money.

“They’re more likely to write a check if their candidate is showing strength and less likely to contribute if they’re lagging. Polling can absolutely cause donors to reassess who they will support, and without money, a campaign can’t survive.”

Pearson Cross, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, agrees.

“Many donors contribute on the basis of the likelihood of victory,” Cross said. “A candidate showing strength and momentum can shake out more dollars, so that momentum is likely to grow. But it can clearly work negatively as well if a candidate is sliding.

“So while a voter may not make his or her decision based on a poll, the voter may not have the chance to know the candidate if he can’t generate the funding to deliver his message.”

Polls can also influence media coverage, Stockley said, which can impact voters’ decisions.

“If someone is lagging in the polls he might get less coverage, or if he’s climbing, it could generate a headline,” he said. “Even if a candidate goes from 2 percent to 4 percent, the headline may say, ‘Candidate doubles support in poll,’ which can influence momentum.”

The latest, commissioned by The Advocate and WWL-TV and released this week, showed Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter and Democrat state Rep. John Bel Edwards in a dead heat at 24 percent.

They were followed by Republican Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle at 15 percent and Republican Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne at 14 percent.

“The numbers are all over the place,” Alford said. “It’s a roller coaster ride. I’ve seen it happen in other states where polling breaks down and is undependable. We may be at that point here.”

Maybe, but virtually all of the polls have consistently showed Vitter and Edwards on top, although Angelle and Dardenne have enjoyed upward movement.

The Advocate/WWL poll showed Vitter losing to all three candidates in a head-to-head runoff, but Alford said, “Pollsters tell me that polling a runoff is premature.”

Stockley said he doesn’t trust early polls.

“Polls now are a little less reliable; they should be taken with a grain of salt,” he said. “At this stage, they may be able to take a pulse of the election on a given day, but they aren’t likely to reflect the true post positions of the candidates. Polls taken closer to the election, say two weeks out, are more reliable and useful.”

That day, with the election scheduled Oct. 24, is coming sooner than later.