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By Fareed Zakaria, CNN

When I was in college, in the early 1980s, I invited Ronald Reagan’s defense secretary, Caspar Weinberger, to give a speech on campus. At the time, U.S. colleges were hotbeds of opposition to the Reagan administration, especially to its defense policies. Sure enough, as Weinberger began to speak, a series of students stood up and began to heckle. One after another, they rose and chanted a single line, “Deterrence is a lie!”

I am reminded of that turbulent meeting as I listen to the debates over Iran’s nuclear ambitions because it highlights a strange role reversal in today’s foreign policy discourse. It used to be the left that refused to accept the idea of deterrence - searching instead for options such as a nuclear freeze. And it used to be those on the right who would patiently explain the practical virtues of deterrence.

The conservative thinker Charles Krauthammer wrote in the New Republic in 1984. "Deterrence, like old age, is intolerable, until one considers the alternative."

Yet today it is the right that has decided that deterrence is a lie. Krauthammer, the Heritage Foundation, the American Enterprise Institute and others denounce containment and deterrence and would lead us instead to a policy that culminates in a preventive war. It is the right’s version of the nuclear freeze - a simple solution that actually doesn’t solve anything. Strikes on Iran would probably delay its program a few years while driving up domestic support for the government in Tehran and providing it with a much stronger rationale for pursuing nuclear weapons. Yet sophisticated conservatives insist that this route is preferable to deterrence.

Deterrence is a difficult concept to accept because it is counterintuitive: The prospect of destruction produces peace. And yet its record is remarkable. Great powers went to war with brutal regularity for hundreds of years. Then came nuclear weapons, and there has not been a war between great powers since 1945 - the longest period of peace between great powers in history. The United States and the Soviet Union had a more intense and far-reaching rivalry than almost any two great powers ever. Each thought the other wanted to destroy its way of life. And yet, this rivalry did not result in war. Both sides were deterred.

If deterrence doesn’t work, then why are we not preparing preventive war against Russia, which still has a fearsome arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles? Or against Pakistan, home to a military-intelligence regime that has been implicated in more major acts of terrorism in the past 10 years than Iran has in the past hundred? The argument that Iran would be deterred does not rest on its reasonableness but on the regime’s desire to survive. “Rulers want to have a country that they can continue to rule,” says Kenneth Waltz, one of the most distinguished theorists of international relations.

To gain credibility with his conservative critics and with the current Israeli government, President Obama has gone along with them, ruled out containment, insisted that he does not bluff and spoken of a “window” of opportunity for negotiations. This might prove a serious error: It boxes in the United States, limits Obama’s options and forces him on a path that could push him into an unnecessary, preventive war.

Anguish over the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon is understandable. It would be better for Israel, the Middle East and the world if Tehran does not acquire such weapons. The U.S. effort, in collaboration with almost the entire international community, to prevent this from happening and to put tremendous pressure on Tehran, is the right policy. But were Tehran to persist, were its regime to accept the global isolation and crippling costs that would come from its decision, a robust policy of containment and deterrence would work toward Iran as it did against Stalin’s Soviet Union, Mao’s China, Kim Jong Il’s North Korea and the Pakistani military.

soundoff(328 Responses)

Gopherit

It appears that the presumption for Zakaria's article is a nuclear-armed Iran, which if it were to take place that likley would be some years off. In any event, even the most remote prospect of Iran's developing nuclear weapons is serving as a vehicle for anti-Iran, pro-Israeli propaganda in the U.S., which igonres Israeli dispossession of land and homes owned by Palestinians in East Jerusalem and the West Bank and creates a convenient bogeyman to deter the exposure and critical analysis of deteriorating conditions and increasing poverty within the U.S. itself.

If Iran were to develop nuclear weapons it would not be so idiotic as to use them in first strike situations. If it did, Israel with its nuclear stockpile and even without using them and the U.S. would destroy Iran's defensive capabilities and basically bring an end to the Iranian clerics' rule directly or indirectly. But the oil fields would be spared for Western exploitation.

Would you, dear Gopherit, happen to be of the same persuasion as the fellow now in today's news who put a gun to the head of an 8 year old french girl at her school, and pulled the trigger? What a brave bunch you are.

One thing is for sure, a nuclear capable Iranian regime could be as repressive as it wants and never have to worry about intervention from anyone. That's just one of the benefits beyond national prestige and strategic deterrence with Israel.

1. The Iranians are not Arabs
2. Not all or most Muslims are suicide bombers. Most identified suicide bombers have been both Arab and/or Sunni
3. This issue of the Iranian nuclear program is not one of Muslims against Christians. None of Iran's neighbors wants it to have nuclear weapons.
4. The intelligence and military in Israel and the US have said that they find the Iranian government to be a rational actor
5. The Iranians have made statements indicating that they do not believe that the State of Israel should exist. They are a bit more ambiguous on whether, given the chance, they would end its existence
6. The Iranians have supported organizations which have been identified as terrorists organizations by the US government

All these are relevant facts. Unfortunately they do not all point in the same direction. But we can at least try to debate from a position of fact and less on name calling, prejudice or bigotry.

And Neville Chamberlain was saying "calm down" to everyone concerned with Germany prior to WWII. If you don't stop a growing menace when it is small, you have to deal with it when it gets disasterously ugly.

... to Moonie... Indeed, yes. The exact same sentiment of downplay was what led to the holocaust and to the loss of millions of good men and women on the completely unnecessary battlefields of Europe. Belittling a nuclear threat is a fool's game, and you are very much a player.

March 20, 2012 at 2:24 am |

NorCalMojo

These articles are doublespeak. Anyone with a brain can tell Zakaria really thinks Iran should have the bomb.

Who is the aggressor?
Who is threatening to bomb whom?
Which country is taking, occupying and building settlements upon the lands of another?
Which country has hundreds of nukes and threatens to kill others for doing the same?

Nuclear deterrence is alive and well, and is currently one of the most popular alternatives among the voting members of the National Security Council (NSC).

There will be no preemptive strike against Iran by Israel or the USA. Any preemptive military action would not achieve long-term objectives, and may trigger a larger and much-more devastating regional conflict.

The public-sabre-rattling rhetoric by the USA and Israel will continue, indefinitely. Secret diplomacy and severe sanctions will also continue.

Iran may halt their pursuit of a viable nuclear-delivery system in exchange for concessions. However, a nuclear-armed Iran is highly likely and probably unstoppable.

The strategy of nuclear deterrence is a viable alternative for dealing with a very difficult foreign-policy dilemma. Many NSC members have conceded that Iran will ultimately join the nuclear club, but with membership, there are rules and responsibilities. If Iran crosses a pre-determined line, or if they provide nuclear materials or weapons to extremists, they will face the consequences.

The Soviet Union leaders were rational. There was mutually assured destruction, and rational people would not risk an atomic war. The Iranians are irrational because of their fundamentalist radical theocracy. In fact their religious beliefs require and invite mutual destruction in order to bring about the coming of their Messiah (the 7th Mahdi). Therefore your comparison with the Soviet Union is ridiculous. Just because the NY Times quotes all kinds of apologists that Iranians are "rational" does not make it so. You are wrong and irrational.

What ever side you are on or whatever you advocate, the world is about to change. Iran is a geo-political centre point and what happens in Iran will be a turning point in world history. Iran is the real deal folks and there is no way around it. It is only about how much more convoluted or complex can the contingency possibly get. Zakaria's containment strategy is scary but does make sense on some ways as most other options are rather unrealistic and could be even considered ludicrous given the reality on the ground. Just keep that in mind. There are some important facts I'd like people to be aware of about the situation with Iran if they aren't so already.
1. The mullahs in Iran, to the dismay of most Iranians in Iran and abroad, are certified insane but as much as they are lunatics, they are patient, cunning, ruthless, selfish and greedy to the degree that there is infighting with regard to how much and who gets to steal the country's wealth to fill bank accounts in switzerland. The only question is do they have a death wish and that is certainly a calculation to be made, but to automatically assume that they are all uniformly hellbent on mass suicide when they are mostly made of up crooks just like your local thug or drug dealer is rather a foolish assumption. They want power, they want money, they want control, and they want to stay alive (mostly). Islam is just a front.
2. Ahmadinejad is in fact more like an Iranian version of Rush Limbaugh. Just says ludicrous, inflammatory things for attention and entertainment but is mostly useless. Supreme psychopath Komenei runs the show and he is infact as hard core is at gets. His revolutionary Guard is no joke and they are tightly wound, highly intelligent and very capable, and their agents are somewhat along the lines your average CIA or Mossad agent. They are not stupid, nor are they sitting around and just praying to Allah that that they don't get attacked. They have serious tricks up their sleeve and are ready to rumble.
3. Unlike Afghanistan or Iraq, Iran has been anticipating, expecting and preparing for a confrontation with the US since the early 90's. They are and have been uber paranoid and that has driven them to think about that day for the last 20 years. If a war broke out, they are not going to just fall apart and disappear like Saddam's joke of a government or retreat into the mountains like the Taliban. They have elaborate plans and well-developed strategies on how they would confront and fight a technologically asymmetric war with the US. Some are actually hoping for an attack so that their hard work and plans don't go to waste and that would actually unite the county and in fact allow those more lunatic hardliners to fully take over.
4. Iran has an effective strategy for shutting down the straight of hormuz for at least some time enough to cause major oil disruptions. This includes a strategy to deploy hundreds of 2 man boats with RPG's targeting individual carriers with the goal of attaining just one hit. Sort of like how sperm fertilize an egg. It is difficult to target so many little ships coming at you at random and to blow every single one out of the water without fail 20/20. This is why every once in a while you hear on the news how an iranian speedboat came charging at a US ship and then suddenly changed direction and disengaged. They are testing the US response times. Its not pretty but even during naval war games after 2003 the US military was aware of how effective this may be. Iran has been stockpiling these boats and designing hovercraft versions of their own since for a while now. Us would prevail for sure but the straight would be a messy sight indeed.
5. Most of the oil in the gulf including the oil in the arab states including Saudi is in fact locally populated by shiites (go figure). This is an unfortunate coincidence and if war was to break out, there are cells that have been set up in those regions and once activated, would unleash hell and to the oil fields, and with no way to control or turn those cells off since they are now acting independently. Sort of like Iraq insurgency or sectarian violence after Iraq invasion. No one knows who's doing what, where and when and it would take years to turn down the heat (literally).
6. Most of the oil in Saudi Arabia is refined in just few factories and they are within target range of Iranian missiles. They don't need long range missile technology to hit the US. They just need to hit back at the gonads which for the US is the oil in and around the persian gulf. There would be no love lost between Iran and Saudi as they sort of already despise each other. If this were to happen or any other disruption in oil as described above, that would mean oil and the price of everything we hold dear including our food going up to a level that is difficult to even fathom.
7. Hezbollah and even Hamas would go ballistic if Iran was attacked.
8. Even in the remote possibility that iran doesn't go for nuke weapons an attack would be a self fulfilling prophecy and Iran would certainly start enriching weapons grade uranium and the whole thing would go more underground and even more risk that it would fall into the wrong hands. At least deterrence it is out in the open, (unless you subscribe to the 90 million people having a collective suicidal deathwish philosophy)
9. Other than bombing raids that would be limited in effectiveness and would actually help make Iran look like victim, any other military option would have to try to prevent most of the above as its second major objectives in addition to stopping the primary goal of stopping the nuke program. That would require a full on full scale assault on every level possible. Maybe the US is up for that but that level of pre-emptive attack is difficult to justify even for the US and even if it did justify, or could prevent the major economic fallout from oil prices and attacks in the region, the cost of such a war would be in the trillions and potentially never ending and that would even dwarf the cost of Iraq and Afghanistan. Some people in the US would love that including the military-industrial complex but the average citizen and the US economy for the most part would become completely exhausted.
10. The sanctions are causing Iran to have to come up with more ingenious means of trade including barter and selling or diverting oil through non-conventional means and increase to the east like China and India. Once these methods of transaction of solidified, after a war the price of oil will go throughout the roof and Iran may actually benefit tremendously if it is able to sell or trade its oil while most of the world suffers. High oil prices are good for Iran, bad for US. Thus a war is good for Iran's oil profits assuming they can still function as a country.
12. The US/Israel is doing everything in its power to stop Iran while avoiding war including desperate assassinations of scientists and even stuxnet which was a catastrophe wrapped in a disaster. This may be because they realize a war may not even be possible and if they could- like they did in Iraq, why wouldn't they do it already. Of course… they have to talk but walking the walk may be in actually more like... walking off a bridge.

I think that you are wrong about the likelihood of an attack. I believe that both the US and Israel have locked themselves in irretrievable positions on this. They will not accept a nuclear armed Iran. Hopefully, they will continue and they will find a face saving position which allows Iran to have an IAEA supervised nuclear program. But my guess is that there will be attack early in 2013 – right after the US election.

Sat and watched a Gator one time, eat a lahreggeod.Loggerhead must have been at least 100 to 120 lbs.Cracked him like we would a corn nut and sounded kinda' the same as well.Actually, sounded like when you turn your engine off and slowly coast down a rocky road, and the popping sound which your tires occasionally make when you go over a larger than normal rock.Muffled and crunchy!People have no idea just how powerful them jaws really are.

BASHAR AL ASAD AND HIS WIFE, SENDING MILLIONS OD USA DOLLARS TO LEBANON IN A STASH IN A DIFFRENT ANAME ACCOUNT, ALSO SENDING WEAPONS FROM SYRIA TO HIZBOALLAH 10 FULL TRUCKS EVERY DAY CROSSING TO HIZBOALLAH TO PREPARE FOR A RUN AND TO BE USED FOR EMERGENCY , those love birds killers and thug are preparing to empty syria from cash and weapons and move them to lebanon in the hands of the terrorists hizboallah i saw that my self, we have people on the ground at the syria / lebanon boarder sending these informations , some of the trucks also contain chemical weapoins to hizboallah...please inform the media now before it is too late

HOW CAN WE ATTACK IRAN- part 1 of 10 parts.
I USE USA FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN INCREASE THE JETS FIGHTERS IN THAT SIDE.
2- KEEP SOME GOOD FORCE IN IRAQ AND KUWAIT TO DEAL WITH THE SHIIA THUGS WHO WILL SUPPORT IRAN FORM the Iraqi evil government side.
3- keep tanks and jets in Kuwait
4- improve the bases in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and uae
5- ask Qatar to not help or involve with Iran
6- increase USA sea base and naval strength in Bahrain
7-prepare the submarines in the red sea, Mideastern sea, and the Arabian sea
8- close down the straight of hermoze and increase inspections on Iranians boat and ships
9- keep forces in Turkmenistan north of Iran ,and the turkey borders.
10-keep economic bloc-aid
11- attack with multi nations France, Germany, Italy, holand, and UK ,use every thing you got to finish the mission
12-help with money and arms the resistant ( KURDS, ARABESTAN, LOURS, TURKS, BAHA'I, PERSIANS, BELOOSH, SUNNIS , CHRISTENS , ASSYRIANS GROUP AND MUJAHEDIN KHLAQ FIGHTERS ) use every means of propaganda TV, radios, news and secret short wave radios to teach the masses what to do and where to get weapon and money and how to attack the enemy and destroy the enemy war machine and infrastructures,
13- use virus to attack Iran computers and army computers, destroy their satellites, command and controls, nooks sites,
and attack QUM as the mullahs will hide at their shrines and use it to make fatwas .
14- freeze all Iran assets, stop them from immigrations or coming here as most are using USA and Canada to send money to Hezbollah and Iraqi thugs, stop Ahmad AL jalabi and arrest him as he is one of Iran spies
15-help Dr ayad alawi to take over Iraq as he won the election but Iran put AL maleki instead, Al maleki pretend he is with USA but he is a lire,
16 control the Iran Iraqi boarder and Syria Iraq border by using drones so no shiia can cross to Iran from Iraq and Syria
17- Iraqi kurds can help from north Iraq, the Sunni can help from west Iraq and the resistant can attack from inside Iran
18-Israel can take care of Hezbollah and leash hell if those terrorists Hezbollah attack Israel , that's why we must get red of Syrian regimes now to cut Iran arms before attacking Iran
I will write part 2 in detail on how we can do it .

1. al-Assad IS in serious trouble. Obama was one of the first world leaders to call explicitly for al-Assad's ouster. ALL THE WORLD CONDEMN AND SANCTION HIM and we must keep doing it until he fall and then bring him as a war criminal along with russian leaders we must attack russian interest every where, they have blood in there hands.

2. Force is only answer aganist syria now.along with Hizboallah, terrorists must be hunted down, Yes, the Pentagon is reportedly preparing "detailed" contingency options for U.S. military action in Syria. That's what militaries do, and it's only prudent for the United States to monitor chemical weapons sites and eavesdrop on the regime's communications. It's also a good idea for the president to have a full understanding of what his options are and the risks and costs involved.

3. The U.S. intelligence community is concerned about hizboalla ,iran and iraqi shiia terrorists presence in Syria of fighters from Iraq's shiia branch, who are thought to be behind a spate of bombing attacks in Damascus and Aleppo.

4. . If al-Assad is to fall, the pillars that prop up his regime must first be removed. Iran and Russia, both of which continue to send weapons and advice, if not more, must be convinced that a post-al-Assad Syria is something they can at least live with. Both countries have met with members of the Syrian opposition, indicating they want to explore their options. Perhaps

5. Ignoring China. and use the human right tickets aganist them, make it tough for china to buy and sale to any memebers , china love money and will leave asad if there are economic snaction aganist this evil communist regime.

6. Focusing exclusively on the Syrian National Council he;p them, arm them , finance them, get no fly zones in multiple areas so they can get weapons and supplies, they are already in civil war , so no worries we can safe civilians , al asad already kilkled 14,000 civilians, and more than 132 000 in prison, killing daily.

.7- attack syria now alonmg with hizboallah as they are hiding chimechal weapons and stash and make the region un stable, attack them now and save millions of civilians later, attack them now and that will make it easy to get red of iran later. we all must be united to get red of those evil fregiemes, dont be silent SILENCE IS A CRIME, HITLER MUST NOT COME BACK AGAIN and he is a life and well as long as IRAN AND SYRIA THUGS ARE COMMITTING CIVILIAN KILLING.

So much of hate ! The fanactic muslims hate everybody who is non muslim. The fanatic jews hate everybody who is not jewish. The fanatic christians hate everybody who is not a christian. You get it ....

So much of filth and absurdity in some of these postings. Get a life you people. Grow tolerant. Don't be racist and bigoted.

I am glad a huge part of the US welcomes ideas, talent and creativity. That's what makes this country great. That's what will keep the US ahead of all other countries which are getting driven by religious zealots (Iran, Israel ...).

God bless the USA.

Of course, it has a small percentage of idiots. Some who are commenting on this page.

huber hadley – Looks like a albufous time and Sally, you looked amazing as usual! I'm so sad that I was sicky-sick and had to miss it. Please have another party? Or let's just make a plan to hang out and take silly pictures so we can pretend it's a party. Love you!

Shia thugs in syria , iraq and iran dont know the meaning od deocracy, give me a bbreak those evil cult , killed more than 14,000 cevilians....they arrive to power by force from his father al asad got red of the realy deocratic majority and put a minority 8% shiia thugs control with baathies and communist idiology they export terrorizim to lebanon , hamas and help hizboallah with arms..iran pay the bill, russia provid the weapons and syria do the killing and orgenizing crimes and terror.

syrian thugs will not give up the killing of cevilians, syria are sending 50 trucks a day to south leabnon hizboallah full with arms, weapons, chemical weapons, rockets and cash daily for the last month while USA, UK, FRANCE, NATO AND UN SLEEPING ...syria preparing to arm hizboallah and transfer the war to lebanon those evil my face their match and must be destroyed along with evil iran and the iraqi shiia thug stupid govrnment, unelected irawi shiia are sending weapons and cash to syria to hel the shiia killers to kill more....evil helping evil

The caller ID on Eman al-Obeidi's smart phone says private number. She guesses the call is from a fellow Libyan and promptly silences the ringer.

"I think the halal meat seller gave out my number," she says, picking up another piece of sizzling beef fajita. "That's why I don't buy halal meat anymore."
MMMMMMMMMMMM HALAL MEAT, U EAT SO MANY FK CO KS IN LIBYA
WHATS THAT GOT TO DO WITH STUPID MUSLIM WHO GAVE YOUR PHONE!!! HALAL IS BETWEEN U AND GOD

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The Global Public Square is where you can make sense of the world every day with insights and explanations from CNN's Fareed Zakaria, leading journalists at CNN, and other international thinkers. Join GPS editor Jason Miks and get informed about global issues, exposed to unique stories, and engaged with diverse and original perspectives.