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Old friend Russia to sell weapons to old foe Pakistan

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“Russia is considering selling Mi-35 helicopter to Pakistan to assist it in fighting terrorism. Its request for it has been pending since 2009 and talks are on initial stages.”
— Alexey Dedov, Russia’s Ambassador to Pakistan

“We shall never do anything … which is detrimental to deep and strategic relationship with India.”
— Alexander Kadakin, Russia’s Ambassador to India

In early June this year, Russia has decided to lift its self-imposed arms embargo on Pakistan. By this Russia has sent this signal that it is opening up to negotiate with Pakistan to resume supplying military hardware to it – a clear violation of its gentleman’s agreement with India not to supply any arms to its troublesome neighbor. Questions will surely be arising on the logic or factors behind this sudden U-turn on Russia’s part. Why Moscow is suddenly warming up to Islamabad, forgetting its age old friend New Delhi or is it just a ‘bargaining tool’ in Russia’s diplomatic somersault to nudge India, who in recent years has been diversifying its arsenals acquiring them from non-Russian nations rivaling it in the global armament supplies, to change its current defence procurement policy which Moscow is finding becoming unfavorable to it. Or really, is there an ‘arms embargo on Pakistan’ by Russia even exists in the first place? Because there is neither any Russian official document nor even any diplomatic communiqué reaffirming its so-called “self-imposed policy” i.e. banning arms supply to Pakistan.

Without dwelling much on the past of the Cold War era Moscow-Islamabad ties, it can be said safely that truly there didn’t exist any ‘strategic’ aspect via-a-vis defence in that, which can’t be given New Delhi’s complex sensitivities involved in helping to arm its sworn enemy – a virtual Taboo for the Moscowvites even to think of it. Russia could at best can say customary “Hello’ to Pak mandarins stationed in its Moscow embassy, shaking hands without shaking India’s reposed faith in her that come what may its ‘true friend’ will never allow India’s own external security to be at risk by arming Pakistan even if any such defence deals seem more profitable than that of the ones done with India.

On its part, Pakistan has already a flourishing joint defence R&D with China and through it Pakistan has been augmenting its arsenals which include FC-20, AL-31F, JF-17 Thunder fighter planes, par from others. China which is a master expert in ‘reverse-engineering’ (‘copy cats’) of manipulating the original products to re-produce the ‘duplicate or fake’ version of the same, has been acquiring Russian armaments like Sukhoi-27, Sukhoi-30, Mig-29 etc are powered by legendary ‘RD-33’ engine and in turn ‘revere engineered’ it to propel ‘Made in China’ fighter planes and sold them to Pakistan. Russia has strongly protested against violation of intellectual property rights (IPR), patents etc by China with impunity and threatened to halt all agreed defence sales to Beijing, lest it mend its ‘duplication’ trickery in the name of just doing ‘reverse-engineering’! What China, in turn, conveyed to Russia is not clear but most certainly it has sent the message to Pakistan that it can longer rely upon just on China made military hardware only which is quite inferior to the Russian ones in terms of quality cum agility and scouted for other ‘reliable sources’ to be armed with. This is the main reason why Islamabad is suddenly warming up to Moscow and why Moscow finding itself relegated to a secondary position in the current wish list of India’s arms procurement agenda, wants to use this Pak-send opportunity as a warning to make New Delhi ‘redo’ its policy of gradually reducing Russian origin inventories in its arsenal by diversifying it with inventories from US, France, UK, Israel and Japan.

Russia is already pissed off with India over losing the fight in the race for the multi-billion defence deal, its biggest ever since independence, for acquiring the ‘best fit deal’ medium multi role combat aircraft (MMRCA). In the ambitious MMRCA deal to which Russia was also one of the final contenders pitting against the EU, France and Sweden has lost to France’s Rafael fighter jet, chosen as India’s final MMRCA choice. Russia has lost the deal in spite of using all its resources to lobby New Delhi. The loss of MMRCA deal to France has made the Russian establishment angry, though India tried its best to persuade its all weather ally. If that wasn’t enough, India’s decision to buy US armaments likes J-130 Super Hercules, Globemaster J-17, Pi-8 long range maritime reconnaissance jet etc have acted in rubbing salt in Russia’s wounded prestige over losing the MMRCA deal. Moreover, India’s decision to buy US made Apache fighter helicopter from Israel, negotiating over buying amphibious fighter aircraft from Japan – all these has been seen by Russia as India’s move to relegate Moscow from its earlier ‘first choice’ position to a ‘subordinating secondary’ position. Hence, by announcing lifting arms embargo on Pakistan, Russia want to send a clear signal to India if it can ‘redo’ its defence procumbent policy, then Russia can also ‘rethink’ its global arms sale policy. A tit for tat policy!

Now, where to move from this? Will Russia “really” resort to selling arms to Pakistan, setting aside India’s genuine security concerns from such an ‘unthinkable’ move? Although Russia still thinks its ‘anti-Pakistan’ acts during the 1971 Indo-Pak war, as a supporting war ally of India are still causing diplomatic embarrassments while dealing with Pakistan, selling Russian defence products to Pakistan is not a ‘new’ phenomenon, as we are being befooled to believe by the misinformed opinions of some ‘rag-tag strategic pundits’. As Russia’s Ambassador to India, Alexander Kadakin said, “We have supplied arms to Pakistan since early 1960s. This (lifting arms embargo’) was sheer case of misreporting and over-reacting”. Notably, Russia had supplied Pakistan with Mi-17 civilian aircraft in the past and the ongoing talks for selling Mi-35 Hind or Mi-28 Havoc attack helicopters were only in an initial stage. Incidentally, two of Russia’s biggest arms export wings State run Rosoboronexport as well as Rostec have also denied any such moves to resume selling combat/offensive military hardware to Pakistan. Re-emphasizing Russia’s long standing strategic ties with India, Mr Kadakin has reiterated further still that it will not do anything which will be detrimental to Moscow’s deep ties with New Delhi as a partner by its side in fighting anti-terror campaigns. Ironically, it was Rostec’s CEO Sergey Chemezov who while on his visit to New Delhi in early June this year, gave an ‘impression’ that Russia’s has lifted its self-imposed embargo on arms sell to Pakistan but later he denied that such an embargo was ever in place.

To conclude and to cut the long story short, both India and Russia enjoys mutual trusts in their long standing strategic relations and both are their all weather allies. There is an un-official agreement exists on both side that neither India nor Russia will ever resort to such things mutually considered by both as death-knell to their deep ties of strategic engagements. India’s move to diversify its defence arsenal is guided by sheer professionalism and Russia is mature enough to understand this, as a global arms dealer.

Moreover, still today over 75% of India’s military hardware across the three wings i.e. army, navy and air force are of Russian origin and thus will always be dependent on Russian supply of spare parts for keeping them operational. Regular up-gradation of it has been done with Russian co-operation. Pushing indigenization fast forward, both India and Russia is jointly manufacturing multi-role military transport helicopter, fifth generation stealth fighter jet (PAKFA or Sukhoi T-50), Kudankulum II nuclear reactor, various defence and space projects etc. At various international forums like UN, WTO etc Russia and India always stand by their mutual support on issues concerning them both. While Russia vetoed many anti-India UN resolutions, India also strongly opposed many anti-Russia proposals at UN.

Hence, the bottom-line – besides a ‘jubilant’ Pakistan and its ‘misinformed’ think-tanks’ ‘irrational exuberance’ over ‘Russia’s proposed arms sale’ to it, nothing much should be read over a move which is denied by Russian arms exporters itself and its Ambassador to India.

At best, Russia can sale non-lethal civilian products to Pakistan, as it did in past but strictly not any lethal military hardware (like Mi-35, Mi-28) to India’s arch-enemy as a ‘disillusioned’ Pakistani military establishment has been made to believe. The move is nothing but Russia’s ‘diplomatic maneuver’ to make the new Indian dispensation under PM Modi agreeing to ink more defence deals cum joint manufacturing agreements with Moscow in future, thus, ensuring its predominant ‘first priority’ position in India’s global defence procurement cum joint manufacturing deals, forever.

A foolish Pakistan could not decipher this ‘diplomatic teaser’ from Russia but an intelligent India can because it knows well that while dealing with any regime in New Delhi; Moscow will have no other choice but to be solely guided by a proverbial ‘Hobson’s Choice’ – not to do anything threatening India’s own security or age old Indo-Russian ties will cease to exist for good. This is the ‘real truth’ regarding “Russia’s proposed arms sale to Pakistan”. All else are mere ‘true lies’!