Thanksgiving Day is upon us, which can
only mean one thing (for the purpose of this exercise, we're ignoring
things such as binge eating, awkward interactions with family,
reckless alcohol consumption, and stabbing strangers for discounted
electronics): three times as many NFL games this Thursday! With these
additional mid-week games come additional chances to build your
bankroll before Sunday. Let's break down the three Thanksgiving
football games from a bettor's perspective.

Home teams are in CAPS, with spreads
and betting trends from SportsInsights
(as of midnight on Thursday), and DVOA metrics are from Football
Outsiders. The spreads listed, by the way, are not my picks. They are just the points for or against the road team.

Green Bay Packers (+6.5) vs. DETROIT
LIONS – 12:30 p.m.

Green Bay's offense has suffered, as
expected, since the loss of Aaron Rodgers. Their yards per play
average stands at second in the NFL at 6.26 yards per play, but with
the combination of Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn leading the offense,
they could only muster an average of 5.6 yards per play in last
week's tie against Minnesota.

The Packers average 7.80 yards per pass
attempt but, in Flynn's action last week, they barely broke six yards
per pass attempt. Nobody was expecting Green Bay's reserves to match
the productivity of Rodgers, but Flynn's 6.06 yards per attempt
average equals the Miami Dolphins' season average, which is good for
27th in the NFL. Detroit, meanwhile, is seventh in the NFL
at 7.29 yards per pass attempt, with their full arsenal at their
disposal.

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Despite the dropoff in production in
the passing game, the Packers are averaging a more than respectable
4.8 yards per carry, which will be tough to replicate against a Lions
defense that is allowing 3.8 yards per rush, seventh best in the
league.

In the first meeting between these two
teams this season, the Packers rushed for 5.5 yards per carry. That
number, however, was skewed by a 67 yard rushing touchdown by Randall
Cobb. Taking that run out of the equation, an especially practical
idea since Cobb is on injured reserve, the Packers rushed for 3.5
yards a carry.

Many remember that the reason Matt
Flynn was handed a couple of ridiculous contracts was his performance
as a Packer against the Lions in a meaningless regular season game at
the end of the regular season in 2012. He will have to have a good
game against a Lions secondary which is ranked 27th in
DVOA against the pass.

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Detroit's biggest strength is their
passing game, which is convenient given just how much the Packers
have struggled against the pass this year. Green Bay is ranked 29th
in DVOA against the pass, which means that the Lions should be able
to put up some points. The outcome of this one will rest on whether
or not Flynn can keep up with them, which is difficult to evaluate
based on such a small sample size.

Oakland Raiders (+7.5) vs. DALLAS
COWBOYS – 4:30 p.m.

Darren McFadden is slated to make his
triumphant return to the Raiders offense in this game, which may
further expose Dallas' soft run defense. The Cowboys are allowing a
league worst 5.1 yards per carry, are 31st in DVOA against
the run, and are taking on a Raiders team that is first in the league
in yards per rush with 4.9 per carry. That is a potentially lethal
combination.

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These factors have been noted in the
line movement for this game. Despite 62% of bettors being on the
Cowboys, this line has moved three full points from Cowboys -10.5 to
Cowboys -7.5. While McFadden's return may have something to do with
that, that drastic a movement screams that sharp money is on the
Raiders.

Dallas has only won by this margin
twice at home on the season, against the pathetic St. Louis Rams and
Washington. While it is entirely possible that Matt McGloin will play
as poorly as those teams played in AT&T Stadium, to pick against
the Raiders would be to blatantly ignore a lot of betting trends,
which is the opposite of how you win money in sports betting. The
extra half point is such a nice luxury, by the way, if your sports
book has it.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs.
BALTIMORE RAVENS – 8:30 p.m.

Chances are you will be passed out on
your cousin's recliner after eating approximately 90,000 calories and
washing it all down with as much booze as can be physically ingested
without rupturing your stomach, but that doesn't mean that there
isn't some money to be won here.

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Baltimore's offense is downright
depressing this season, ranking 31st in total yards per
play (4.54), last in yards per rush (2.90), and 30th in
DVOA (-20.00%). Luckily, they run into a Steelers offense that isn't
much better. Pittsburgh is ranked 30th in both yards per
carry (3.30) and rushing DVOA. This means that the Steelers will have
to rely on their pass offense against a Ravens defense that held them
to 145 yards passing in their Week 7 matchup. With the over/under for
this game set at 41, you can assume that a low scoring game is in the
cards, with the outcome likely being decided by one possession.

Pittsburgh's two road wins this year
have come against the Jets and Browns, both of which look less
impressive with each passing week. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 4-1
straight up at home and an impressive 5-0 against the spread. This
includes a three point win over AFC North leading Cincinnati, which
would have been a seven point win if not for that ridiculous
Hail Mary where James Ihedigbo tipped
the ball directly to A.J. Green.

Since 2009, six of the last eight games
between these two teams have been decided by three points exactly.
This makes the 2.5 point spread nerve wracking for Steelers bettors,
since a three point win by Baltimore would result in a loss.