In 1962, Everett Rogers wrote a book – or maybe better, the book – on the technology adoption life cycle, “Diffusion of Innovations”. Over the years it has seen tweaks or slight adaptations, but overall it remained valid.

product life cycle adoption model

Until recently that is.

In 2014 Downes and Nunes, 2 Accenture researchers, published “Big Bang Disruption” and tried to explain how the life cycle has drastically changed.

big bang disruption life cycle

The original 5 segments of Rogers have been reduced to only 2: trial users and then all the rest.

On top of that the life cycle itself has been sped up, whereby there is an almost vertical ramp up, but an equally drastic drop. This shark fin model with its many small bumps, symbolizes the time needed for innovators to get it collectively wrong several times before getting it dramatically right.

Those mantras you have been hearing the past few years, such as “fail forwards” or “fail fast and fail cheap” are what drives this model, creating those small bumps, until someone gets it right, and things take off like a rocket.

You could best compare it to the launch of a new social network; either it takes off almost overnight, or it will sputter along for a while and then die in silence.

This new reality makes it extremely hard for both companies and their marketers to create and plan viable strategies about launching products and services.

In the book “Big Bang Disruption”, the 2 authors try to set out 12 rules for surviving and even being successful in this era of the shark fin life cycle.

I’m doubtful this model will remain in place for the next 50 years, like Everett Rogers’ model did, but it does succeed in explaining and structuring the elevated degree of entropy we are currently experiencing.

Alright, with fall finally on the way, here’s my list of books I read so far in the 2nd half of 2014. I admit, the list is somewhat shorter than usual, but looking back on the past few months, I’ve really had lots of other stuff competing for my free time, so I guess reading books kinda lost out a bit. Still, it’s never about the quantity, right? Unfortunately, the quality was also a bit lacking in this batch…

Unseen Academicals (Discworld novel #37) – Terry Pratchett (3/5) – Have we really already had 37 of those? That’s quite an achievement. This time it’s about the Ankh-Morporkian take on football, supporters, hooligans, and even WAGs via a detour by the fashion & modelling industry. Long gone for me are the laugh out loud moments, and although it’s all still very clever and enjoyable, it’s really become a formula that is hard to hide. So, even though I’m giving it an acceptable 3 out of 5, I will be just as happy never to read another Discworld novel again. Sorry Terry, I’m afraid this is where I finally get off this very long, and overall brilliant train.

Twenty Trillion Leagues Under the Sea – Adam Roberts (3/5) – Although some have, in my opinion at least, dismissed it a bit too quickly as a re-imagining of the classic Jules Verne story “Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea”, it of course is strongly connected to that book. I will not give much more than that obvious statement. Not because the book hinges on some kind of wonderful twist, but mainly because it is quite an odd story, that although relatively short manages to pack in quite a lot of stuff. For me it fell a bit short, maybe due to it’s shortness versus the scope it still tries to tackle, but mostly because, I could never really get to like any of the characters, so also never really cared deeply about what was happening to them.

The Resus Chart (Laundry Files #5) – Charles Stross (4/5) – I really thought for about 30 or 40 pages that Charles Stross had jumped the shark with the Laundry Files series. I genuinely sat there reading while groaning and rolling eyes, almost ready to quit the book. And then the story made a delicious twist, restoring my belief in Mr. Stross. I’m really looking forward to number 6!

The Burning Dark – Adam Christopher (3/5) – I was under the impression this was going to be a hard sci-fi horror story. And for the first big part it does deliver a great, intriguing story with great atmosphere. Then it goes off the rails and becomes something completely different. Like if you would make a mash-up of Alien and Aliens, with the former making up the first 2/3rds of the story, and then ending with a great shoot-up from the latter. Except it’s with ghosts and creepy other dimensional creatures…

The City – Stella Gemmel (2/5) – Maybe the name rings a bell, as Stella Gemmel is the widow of the lamented fantasy writer David Gemmel. In her first novel she manages to create a very elaborate story, linking many diverse characters and trying to build a world. The story is ok; an ancient, reclusive, yet apparently immortal emperor rules The City. For many centuries he has waged a war with all his neighbors, creating a brutal martial society full of haves and have-nots. When some think they have a plan to finally end the war and create a better life for the oppressed citizens, an old general, thought to be long dead, becomes entangled in a web of intrigue. Sounds good, I admit, but unfortunately for Stella Gemmel, I never cared for any of the characters or the world she created. It was like reading a boring historical essay, filled with anecdotes devoid of any emotion. It was at times a chore to keep reading, and in all honesty the reveal at the end, was not really worth it.

Every post you share, every friend you make and every link you follow is tracked, recorded and converted into data. Advertisers buy your data so they can show you more ads. You are the product that’s bought and sold.

We believe there is a better way. We believe in audacity. We believe in beauty, simplicity and transparency. We believe that the people who make things and the people who use them should be in partnership.

We believe a social network can be a tool for empowerment. Not a tool to deceive, coerce and manipulate — but a place to connect, create and celebrate life.

You are not a product.

It will remain to be seen how fast it can scale to a sustainable number of users in order to have any chance of gaining any kind of foothold. And also, the question of who or what is actually behind the project and how it will be funded going forward is currently also the subject of some speculation, as it turns out they do have VC backing, and critical voices are asking if, under those circumstances, it is plausible they will be able to remain true to their mission statement.

Something that I’m wondering however, is what needs to happen for people to abandon Facebook? If it isn’t obvious that Facebook does not care one iota about privacy and only seeks to monetize its users’ data, I don’t know what is. But I guess Facebook, for many, has become such a big and normal part of everyday life, it’s become pretty hard to abandon it. After all, Facebook is where you find out what’s going on with friends and family, where you get invited to parties, where you store and share photos.

I’m sure Facebook won’t last forever, but what will finally trigger its end? Will it be whether users latched on to something else (like Ello), or because, at some point, people decided they finally had enough and didn’t want to be sold anymore? But for it to be the latter reason, I really wonder how much further Facebook first has to push it…?

Well in theory at least, because looking outside where it currently is about 14° Celsius and pouring with rain, you could be forgiven for having your thoughts turn to blankets and hot coco…

But, maybe you still have some holidays to come at more sunny destinations, and you’re wondering what to pack to read besides the pool… Maybe my reading list of the past 6 month can help you.

The Neon Court (Matthew Swift #3) – Kate Griffin (3/5) – Book 3 in this series brings not really anything new, so read if you read the previous 2 and liked them. After this book I’ll still read book 4, but unless something new is done to the series and the characters, this series is starting to feel like it has run its course and has now settled into the “oh-no-another-big-monster-is-here-to-destroy-London” modus. I’m sure there’s plenty of people for whom that is a-ok, not for me.

The Republic of Thieves (Gentlemen Bastard #3) – Scott Lynch (4/5) – The very long awaited part 3 in this series. The guy can surely create an immersive mood, and this book still brings plenty of new things to the world and the characters to maintain interest. My biggest gripe with the series is that Scott Lynch killed quite a few characters in the first book, and now seems to have had second thoughts about that, resulting in very long flashbacks telling parallel stories from when those characters were still alive… Those stories lack tension as you know the characters are safe from any harm, and they do kinda drag down the tempo for the current time story.

Devil Said Bang (Sandman Slim #4) – Richard Kadrey (4/5) – Like I said for some of the books above, I like series as long as they don’t become too formulaic and are able to deliver something new. This series has been a great series overall, and I’m still curious to see where it goes after this one.

Locke & Key (Trade paperback editions vol. 1 – 6) – Joe Hill (5/5) – Against the backdrop of a recent family drama, a mother and her kids move in with her brother-in-law in Keyhouse, an old mansion in Lovecraft, Massachusetts. There they get entangled in an ancient supernatural plot. For me it pressed all the right buttons, from the artwork to the characters, the little stories, as well as the overarching one of course. Really highly recommended.

The Shining – Stephen King (5/5) – With the publication of Doctor Sleep, I came to the sudden realization I never actually read The Shining. Of course I have seen the Kubrick movie as well as the miniseries produced by Stephen King himself, but I didn’t want to base my expectations of the following to this iconic book on derivative versions, so I just had to first read it. I can now better appreciate why King doesn’t agree with the changes Kubrick made in his movie adaptation – I’m convinced those objections are more of a personal nature than artistic, and have everything to do with his recovery from alcoholism. Anyway, this book is a masterpiece, both from a story & character view as well as from a mastery of language point of view. Should have read this sooner, glad I still finally did.

Doctor Sleep – Stephen King (4/5) – As a King novel I could have easily given this 5 out of 5 marks, because the story is great: Dan Torrance, years after The Shining, now a recovering alcoholic like his dad, works as a caregiver in a hospice and uses his diminished powers to ease the dying of the patients, until he meets a young girl with phenomenally strong powers and gets involved in a life and death fight with a “vampiric” gang of creatures traveling the US in RVs, feeding on the lifeforce of people with the Shining… The development of the Dan Torrance character is perfect and believable, but as a following to The Shining, it’s the lesser of the 2. I’m sure King could easily have written this story without it being a sequel. Still, recommended.

The Strange Affair of Spring Heeled Jack (Burton & Swinburne #1) – Mark Hodder (3/5) – Part of the current explosion of Steampunk books, so if you’re into that, you might want to read this. The first half of the book is quite interesting as the world is built and explained. The introduction of the main characters is also done in an interesting way, but when the story is supposed to get really going, I had the feeling it got stuck in endless repetition (the book deals with time travel, so even though it was on purpose, it got tedious) . Someone should start realizing that truly a lot of books could benefit from a tough editor!

Wool – Hugh Howey (3/5) – Hailed as a new hero who started out self-publishing this book and got instant fame and a multiple book deal. The story is alright, but it’s all a bit too see-through and way too black and white in its moralizing. It’s a cool concept, but hardly a harsh dystopian future story, for that it feels way too much like a fantasy allegory.

By Light Alone – Adam Roberts (3/5) – What would happen if famine could be a thing of the past, simply by getting a treatment that turns your hair into a source of food capable of sustaining you through a form of photosynthesis? Apparently the uber-wealthy would shave off their hair and fill their days with eating, while the poor would lay around, growing their hair trying to get as much energy as possible. Underneath it all lays a serious comment on our current society of inequality. While that notion is interesting in itself the story has a hard time bringing it alive.

Joyland – Stephen King (5/5) – Waw, the discovery of 2014 for me. Set in the 1970s it follows a student on his summer job at an amusement park where he gets confronted with the legacy of a vicious murder and the fate of a dying child. It’s a cross between a whodunit and a coming-of-age story. It was warm, emotional, exciting with a fragile and sad ending. If you like stories like Stand by Me, this is surely for you.

Annihilation (Southern Reach Trilogy #1) – Jeff VanderMeer (3/5) – This 3 part series has had all kinds of descriptions and comparisons thrown at it, ranging from being likened to “Lost” to being called Lovecraftian. I guess it’s all true, but that doesn’t necessarily make it great. Still, it’s packed in a short enough book so that it never has the chance to become tedious. Color me curious enough to read number 2 soon.

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Everybody running brand pages on Facebook, get ready for Facebook Zero, also known as the moment your organic reach will be reduced to 0%.

And apparently we’re pretty close to that moment.

I just saw a post on Jennifer Saunders‘ Facebook page stating she heard this moment will be around July 1st 2014. She doesn’t quote the source, but seeing this older article from Social@Ogilvy where they detail the reduction in organic reach between October 2013 and February 2014, it seems pretty plausible.

So anyway, prepare to start to pay for your reach, or look for other ways/platforms to reach your audience. Maybe time to dust of your good old trusted newsletters and direct mailings…

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Election fever runs rampant here in Belgium as we’re heading towards the mother of all elections, combining local, regional, national and European elections all in one go.

All the political bickering, lies and posturing has got me thinking though, and I’ve been doing quite some thinking and reading to get me up to speed. I take my vote seriously, and I refuse to vote out of habit or just because “I kinda like that guy’. Whoever takes seats at any of the levels will be there for several years, making decisions that will impact me and my family. So I’ve been doing some research into who says what, and why and what the implications are.

My political preference has always been on the right side of the center, but could it be that these guys are getting progressively more blind to the complete social and economic inequality we’re spiraling into? In all honesty, all parties it seems are almost exclusively focusing on the middle-class, either as heroes that deserve more, or villains that should pay their fair share (implying they currently don’t). Thereby conveniently forgetting about the really, really rich, or in the case of some extreme left-wing parties making them into such a caricature that nobody takes those parties seriously.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suddenly subscribing to the tired “the strongest shoulders must carry the heaviest burden”-statement that unions and left-winged politician quickly come up with when asked how to deal with this. In this case I’m always reminded of what Sam Seaborn in The West Wing has to say about that, namely that working people with a high income are already paying for the upkeep of several people, when is it enough.

The inequality is in reality more complex and more sinister as well.

Thomas Piketty’s book “Capital in the Twenty-First Century”, currently #1 in the NY Bestseller’s list main statement is “The main driver of inequality–returns on capital that exceed the rate of economic growth–is again threatening to generate extreme discontent and undermine democratic values.”

In other words, amassing huge piles of money simply through no other economic action other than already having huge piles of money is creating an unbridgeable gap between the rich and the rest and will more than probably lead to serious social unrest if not addressed.

So, I do agree that something needs to be done about the social and economic inequality, but I fear that politicians will have neither the will or guts to tackle the 0,01%. Because as Michael Straczynski wrote on Facebook, this group has become The New Aristocracy, able to mold the political and legal system completely to their own wishes.

So far I have not heard one political party really acknowledge this problem, let alone having had anything useful to say in the way of a solution…