San Antonio - The Eagle Ford Shale should have a 16-year productive lifespan that could grow as drilling capabilities improve, a Texas A&M University economist told business leaders Thursday.

Harold Hunt, a research economist with the university's Real Estate Center, was one of two economists speaking at the 2013 Executive Economic Outlook breakfast sponsored by Frost Bank and Ernst & Young.

He said the excitement created by oil and gas opportunities in the 400-mile-long South Texas shale formation has grown in the last year.

Investors and drilling companies have been uncertain, however, how long drilling will continue in the area. Real estate developers in the area have been basing investments on a one-year payback or less because of that uncertainty, Hunt said.

He said current estimates suggest 20,000 wells will be needed to produce the oil and gas available in the Eagle Ford. With about 1,250 wells capable of being drilled a year, it would take about 16 years to reach that capacity, Hunt said.

That estimate could grow by a factor of four, however, if technology allows drillers to get more natural resources out of smaller leases, the economist said.

Hunt was skeptical about that 64-year lifespan estimate but said production techniques should improve in a shale play that is attracting increased attention because it produces both oil and gas, not just one or the other.

But with Eagle Ford estimated to have 3 billion to 10 billion barrels of oil available for recovery, Tunstall believes it could take 20 to 25 years to reach capacity.

"It looks like a pretty long-term play," he said.

Also speaking at the breakfast was Mark Dotzour, the A&M Real Estate Center's chief economist.

Dotzour, addressing the economic prospects for the country, discounted fears that Washington would let the economy plunge over the looming fiscal cliff of tax increases and spending cuts. He instead foresees continued growth in the economy that should pick up speed if Congress addresses deficit concerns.

"Americans have credit capacity to buy stuff again, and that, in combination with pent-up demand, should produce positive job growth and not a recession, regardless of who's president and who's in Congress," said Dotzour. "All the ingredients are there for an economic recovery."

He said another recession is possible if Congress and the president fail to address critical tax and spending issues before January. But Dotzour said he expects Congress to pass extensions that will delay decisions on those issues and keep a slow recovery going.

He hopes Congress also will take concrete steps to balance the budget.

But if the plan does not start to rein in Social Security, Medicare and other entitlement programs, it would be "a waste of time," Dotzour said.