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"Disadvantages Of Exponential Smoothing" Essays and Research Papers

=0.50(83000) + 0.30(67000) + 0.15(64000) + 0.05(48000)
= 41,500 + 20,100 + 9,600 + 2,400
= $73,600
$73,600 is the forecast for 2013
Q2. Using exponentialsmoothing with a weight of 0.6 on actual values:
a) If sales are $45,000 and $50,000 for 2010 and 2011, what would you forecast for 2012?
(The first forecast is equal to the actual value of the preceding year.)
Actual values are
2010: $45,000
2011:...

Question # 3 [10 Marks]
A weather satellite has an expected life of 10 years from the time it is place into earth’s orbit. Determine its probability of failure after each of the following lengths of service. (Assume Exponential distribution is appropriate.) [ 3 marks for a, b, and 4 marks for c]
a. 5 years [3 marks]
b. 12 years [3 marks]
f. What is the probability that the satellite will fail between 5 and 12 years after being placed into earth’s orbit? [4 marks]
...

of short range forecasting with an averaging period of three weeks to develop a forecast of the demand for the CTR 5922 component in Week 13.
What is the mean absolute deviation for averaging period of 3 weeks and 5 weeks?
ExponentialSmoothing
A toy company buys large quantities of plastic pellets for use in the manufacture of its products. The Production Manager wants to develop a forecasting system for plastic pellet prices. The price per kilo of plastic pellets has varied...

|Total |
Problem 3:
A firm uses simple exponentialsmoothing with [pic] to forecast demand. The forecast for the week of January 1 was 500 units whereas the actual demand turned out to be 450 units. Calculate the demand forecast for the week of January 8.
Problem 4:
Exponentialsmoothing is used to forecast automobile battery sales. Two value of [pic] are examined, [pic] and [pic] Evaluate the accuracy of each smoothing constant. Which is preferable? (Assume the forecast for...

eightweek period have been 14, 9, 30, 22, 34, 12, 19, 23. a. Suppose that three-week moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for weeks 4 through 8. b. Suppose that exponentialsmoothing is used with a smoothing constant of α = 0.15. Find the exponentialsmoothing forecasts for weeks 4 through 8. c. Based on the MAD, which method did better? Solution: a. Week 4 5 6 7 8 b. and c. You may start ES forecast from week 1 or start ES forecast from week 4 using MA(3) forecast...

THE THEORETICAL CONSTRUCTION OF
INCOME SMOOTHING MEASUREMENT
Alwan Sri Kustono
Jember University
E-Mail: alwankustono@yahoo.com
Tegal Besar Permai 2-E1,Jember,Propinsi Jawa Timur,Indonesia
ABSTRACT
The income smoothing is a dimension of the accounts manipulation theme that has been a ttracting a great attention in the accounting literature. A goal of manipulation widely as cribed to managers is the desire to smooth. Reported income, Income smoothing reflects reducing the possible income fluctuations...

Cash flow, Comprehensive income, Household income in the United States
1761 Words |
7 Pages

Choose one of the forecasting methods and explain the rationale behind using it in real life.
I would choose to use the exponentialsmoothing forecast method. Exponentialsmoothing method is an average method that reacts more strongly to recent changes in demand than to more distant past data. Using this data will show how the forecast will react more strongly to immediate changes in the data. This is good to examine when dealing with seasonal patterns and trends that may be taking place. I would...

SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES
Several techniques are available to forecast time-series data that are stationary or that include no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal effects. These techniques are often referred to as smoothing techniques because they produce forecasts based on “smoothing out” the irregular fluctuation effects in the time-series data. Three general categories of smoothing techniques are presented here:
• Naive forecasting models are simple models in which it is assumed that the...

accurate forecast possible so they can plan for the demands. There are forecasting tools that assist with making calculations to receive the best outcome by your company’s needs. The tools are moving average, weighted moving average and exponentialsmoothing.
The moving average takes the total of actual demand for previous months then divides by the number of months added. The number of months that is used can be predefined such as using the previous three months. This is the simplest and easiest...

univariate forecast this depends only on Xn, Xn-1,…… In simple exponentialsmoothing, the one-step-ahead predictor can be written in the recurrence form
Xt(1)= Lt+ Tt+ It-p+1
Where the smoothing parameter, α, is usually constrained so that 0 &lt; α &lt;1. The Holt-Winters method (sometimes called the Winters method or seasonal exponentialsmoothing) generalizes this approach to deal with trend and seasonality. Let α, γ, δ denote three smoothing parameters and let p denote the number of observations per...

principles. Profits can be changed easily by using certain accounting methods or manipulating accruals. When discovered, this information will have a negative effect on a company's share price and its reputation in general.
Methods of Income Smoothing
In order to present a more positive result to shareholders and a more favorable view of company’s results, numerous methods exist that can be used by accountants. Most methods are achieved by using book entries.
The Depreciation Method
The...

Case 5-1 Income Smoothing
a. Firstly, investors tend to invest in companies with stable earnings rather than one with volatile earnings. With stable earnings, there will be more likely an issuance of dividends and investors could easily predict the company’s future earnings compared to one with unstable earnings. With consistent earnings generated, it gives investors a secured feeling that it will again generate earnings as predicted. Confidence in the growth of rate of earnings is crucial because...

Solving Exponential and Logarithmic Equations
Exponential Equations (variable in exponent position)
1. Isolate theexponential portion ( base exp onent ): Move all non-exponential factors or terms to the other side of the equation. 2. Take ln or log of each side of the equation. • Make sure to use ln if the base is “e”. Then remember that ln e = 1 . • Make sure to use log if the base is 10. • If the base is neither “e” nor “10”, use either ln or log, your choice.. 3. Bring the power (exponent)...

a relation in which each element of the domain is paired with exactly one element in the range. Two types of functions are the exponential functions and the logarithmic functions. Exponential functions are the functions in the form of y = ax, where ''a'' is a positive real number, greater than zero and not equal to one. Logarithmic functions are the inverse of exponential functions, y = loga x, where ''a'' is greater to zero and not equal to one. These functions have certain differences as well as...

even to watch their favourite sit-com series. Of course, with its few advantages, television has many more disadvantages. As we have stepped into the twentieth century, this thingamajig has proven to give its viewers a lot of disadvantages such as health problems, violence, and last but not least, escapism from the actual world.
First and foremost, health problems are one of the disadvantages that make television as one of the worst inventions in the world. People are mostly sitting and eating junk...

Additionally, there is increased trade and outsourcing among nations which basically results in these nations working like partners because they are working together in order to better their situation. Globalization has advantages as well as disadvantages. It is viewed as a cause for increasing problems and also as a way of balancing things with one another. Globalization is all around, can be seen everywhere, and effects everyone.
Globalization is a continuous process through which different...

DISADVANTAGE OF EXTRACURRICULAR…
Students have a variety of extracurricular activities to choose, from speech team to chorus to multiple sports for every season. This variety can benefit students immensely. According to the children's education company Scholastic, extracurriculars let your child enjoy himself in a fun, stress-free environment, get some exercise and make friends outside of school. For all the positive aspects, extracurricular activities can cause some problems for students. Be...

must stop smoking. This essay will detail the disadvantages holding you back while you continue to smoke, as well as the benefits of quitting.
Darrael Robinson
How many times have you said this to yourself? I
Darrael Robinson
The Disadvantages of Smoking Cigarettes and the Advantages of Quitting
The Disadvantages of Smoking Cigarettes and the Advantages of...

﻿Disadvantages of Internet
In Learning of Engineering Students
Researchers:
Leader: Albert Deinla
Assistant Leader: Melina Baluyot
Members:
Martin Alviz
Trisha Batungbakal
Julius Bautista
July 9, 2015
CHAPTER 1
THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND
INTRODUCTION
Across the modern world, internet is practically used by lots of people because it’s really accessible and fast to use especially for college students, to apply its main purpose of convenience to do a specific task. The problem is how it...

Information technology in the business world: its advantages and disadvantages.
Communication technology is one of the most important facilities of information technology (IT) for the people around the world. It changed the human life by made it easier to communicate between each other also it make the world look like small village. People now communicate between each other’s by different ways comparison to the past. As a result businesses also change and develop by using communication technology...

1
HSC PHYSICS > MOTORS AND GENERATORS| AC & DC
Gather secondary information to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of AC and DC generators and relate these to their use.
AC generators
Advantages
 The slip rings of an AC generator have a continuous surface that allows the brushes to remain in contact with the ring’s surface. Thus the brushes in an AC generator do not wear out as fast as in a DC generator as they do not create an electric short circuit every half-turn.  Therefore...

cameras, cars, computers and lights are some technologies that human uses in their daily lives. These technologies really provide them many advantages. It is easy to think about the advantages however, for your information technology has also disadvantages.
Science and Technology helps human beings make their lives easier in such a way that it helps them in every sector. Like in transportation, through cars, airplanes or trains, they can travel faster to their desired places. From inventions...

you file your personal taxes. This is the concept of double taxation: first the company was taxed for its profits, and later shareholders were taxed for their dividends. (https://www.boundless.com/business/types-business-ownership/corporations/disadvantages-corporations/)
In many countries, corporate profits are taxed at a corporate tax rate, and dividends paid to shareholders are taxed at a separate rate. Such a system is sometimes referred to as “double taxation”, because any profits distributed...

will benefit your organization for the long haul. Fortunately, there are a variety of ways to make sure you pick the right employees who will stay with your company. The following are instructions on how to prevent quick employee turn-around.
Disadvantage of Total Quality Management (TQM)
Initial Introduction Costs – A project's initial costs are those that are incurred during the design and construction process. For project alternatives that use new and relatively unproven technologies, special...

Exponential Functions in Business
Turgenbayeva Aiida
ID 20092726
Variant 2
Kazakhstan Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic Research
MSC1101 Mathematics for Business and Economics
Instructor: Dilyara Nartova
Section #2
Summer-I 2009
Abstract
This project reflects my knowledge and understanding of the interest rate, its types, formula and its evaluation in order to determine the most profitable type of investment scheme for National Bank wishing to increase...

Disadvantages of science
* Due to advancement of science, the identity and cultures are faded; the diseases are produced at an alarming rate and pollution is increased in geometric ratio.
* Because of the advancement of science in unwanted business, people are so busy that even a child cannot recognize a father.
* Many illegal and prohibited works are increased.
* One is not able to take a sound sleep and breathe fresh air.
* The black history of Hiroshima and Nagasaki shows...

cutting cost and providing adequate medical care especially when distance is an obstacle to the patient or the physician. It is a way of preventing re-admission due to the option of easy follow up made available by telemedicine.
Some of the disadvantages of telemedicine are 1) Low levels of trust between the patient and physician. 2) Insecurity of maintaining the privacy of patient medical information. 3) Communication disparity that may arise especially with patients of dementia and sensory...

Disadvantage of Technology
Hidden camera
We have stepped into the 21st century and the world has given us some unbelievable technology that sometimes it seems to be a dream. But when we look at the backside of the latest technology, we find that we have made these technologies for our destruction if wrongly used by the wrong people. If the people of the world use these technologies in a right way, we all are going to be benefited out of it , but if the motive of a human being is not positive...

Advertisement? Advantages and disadvantages. . .
There is several definition of advertisement but we can simply define it in following
Words Advertising is the paid, impersonal, one-way marketing of persuasive information from an identified sponsor disseminated through channels of mass communication to promote the adoption of goods, services or ideas.
Objectives of advertisement.
Advertisers want to generate increased consumption of their commercial products and services. Advertising messages...

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander People
Why are Indigenous people in Australia still disadvantaged with regard to health care and services?
For the last 200 years Indigenous people have been victims of discrimination, prejudice and disadvantage. Poor education, poor living conditions and general poverty are still overwhelming issues for a large percentage of our people and we remain ‘as a group, the most poverty stricken sector of the working class’ in Australia (Cuthoys 1983).
As...

the surrounding us world, therefore it help us to catch and avoid being dropped back from the world of information. Everyone must agree that the advantages of watching television are very considerable. But beside those benefits, there are some disadvantages that we must notice to be sure that we watch television most effectively. Everything contains good side and bad side and television has no exception. Technology has grown at a tremendous fast rate and continues to progress rapidly. Today's children...

﻿Densie Keaton
Social Networking Advantages and Disadvantages
HLT 610
Grand Canyon University
Finding the advantages anddisadvantages of social networking for career advancement was to say the least interesting. The employment advancement with Social media in education can teach students marketing skills early on in the process. When using sites like Facebook, twitter, and Instagram individuals are able to send information about themselves out to millions of people. If that same person...

friends.
Parents who send their children to public school do not have to purchase books and supplies. Most public school children have two parents working full time jobs and are able to afford things easier than a family of only one income. A disadvantage for the parents of home schooled children is the financial burden it can put on the family. Parents who choose to home
Homeschooling 4
school their children, as opposed to free public schooling are responsible for purchasing what...

Global Warming: An exponential threat
We currently live in a highly globalized world from every point of view (technological, scientific, cultural, economic, communicative, etc.) hence, one of the most negative effects that generated globalization has been the growing ecological imbalance that has harmed the planet. The global warming has become of the most dangerous threats and challenges to face in the 21st century.
Many companies and factories are currently one of the main factors which...

The primary disadvantages of democracy are a general lack of accountability, the prospect of personal interest becoming the predominant factor in decisions, and negative financial implications. A democracy lays the power to make decisions in the hands of the majority. This, ironically, places an emphasis on both individual and group power. A group controls the decision-making process, but an influential individual can control the group.
The issue with democracy, in spite of the power of the people...

than 4 billon people and devices that connected everywhere and every time. School will have less and less of student most of thee class will be online.
On the other hand, not every thing came from inter net is great. There are a few disadvantages that are related to the inter net. For instance, many of the artists said they lost billons because their work can be found on the for free. If You can get a movie or song for free why should go buy it. Even, after many rules still there is big...

Energy Drinks Case Study
innovation in the beverage market. They compete with water, soft drinks, juices, tea, and other common drinks, which are in low prices, good and long history of...
Premium
Advantages And Disadvantages Of Having a Working Mother
item at home was fruits (74%); followed by Junk food (that is potato crisp, soft drinks) (58%); and Dairy products (50%). The availability of fruits at home suggests...
Premium
Energy Drink Case
...

people(tourists) away from their usual habitat, the activities of people away from their usual habitat will normally give rise to an industry and the activities of both the people and the industry may or will have impact on the host community.
2.0 DISADVANTAGES OF TOURISM
2.1 THREATHEN INDIGENOUS IDENTITY
Tourism gives positive impacts to a country but the impacts arise when tourism brings about changes in value systems and behaviour, thereby threatens indigenous identity. Furthermore, changes often...

are two main disadvantages of globalisation. One is about the culture crisis; another is inequality between the developed countries and the developing countries. In this essay, I will try to present what is happening negatively alongside the prevalence of globalisation. And analyze the two main aspects of disadvantages with some useful examples. After all, discuss how to manage these problems and suggest what will happen in the future.I think we generation should know the disadvantages of globalisation...

effects of caffeine on the body differ from one person to another. The most common source of Caffeine is the Coffee. In this informative speech you will learn about , What is caffeine? What are the benefits we get from caffeine and what are the disadvantages when taking too much of it.
Caffeine is a bitter, white crystalline xanthine alkaloid and a stimulant drug. Caffeine is found in varying quantities in the seeds, leaves, and fruit of some plants, where it acts as a natural pesticide that paralyzes...

Computers and the Internet are great items for the household, but along with these advantages there are disadvantages. They are constantly changing the way that we live and do business. The Internet puts tons of information at a click of a button. This information is a great educational tool for children. The Internet can be very dangerous to young children, and there is also research being done now about possible problems that adults have with computers. It is the parents’ responsibility to make...

Breyan
Ms. White
English 1213, 023
November 3, 2003
Disadvantages of Human Cloning - Loss of Human Identity
Cloning has always been a subject whose thoughts both fascinates and frightens the world. On February 27, 1997, a stunning announcement appeared in the British journal Nature that rocked the scientific world: for the first time ever recorded, a mammal- a lamb named Dolly had been successfully cloned from an adult cell. Coinciding with this shocking proclamation, scientist reported...

Disadvantages of Science
Science cannot explain many supernatural and super-civilization phenomena. For example, we often ask what it is out of our universe, and what it is out of that universe which is already out of our universe. When asking many times, we finally believe that the question must be explained based on philosophy knowledge. However, philosophy is more like a way of thinking, but not a specific method. Just like working out a math problem, philosophy is just an idea of solving, like...

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DISADVANTAGES
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Internet addiction disorder
Internet addiction disorder (IAD), or, more broadly, Internet overuse, problematic computer use or pathological computer use, is excessive computer use that interferes with daily life. These terms avoid the term addiction and are not limited to any single cause.
IAD was originally proposed as a disorder in...

Vicki Jackson
Professor Perry
English 100-03
16 Feb. 2011
Disadvantages of Texting
Texting on the phone while driving can be a very dangerous thing to do. As someone looks at the phone and concentrates on the text messages, they will become distracted from driving. Distracted drivers can cause car accidents and injuries or death to themselves or others. Texting causes delayed reactions, which increase the chance of getting into an accident. According to Cary Aspinwall, when texting while...

Berners-Lee created the first World Wide Web server and browser, which were opened for commercial use a year later. In 1994, the trends of online banking and the integration of online pizza ordering took place. Ever since then the internet has experience exponential growth, making possible for people all around the world to buy anything they want, whenever they want.
Second: Benefits of Online shopping:
According to Diana Ransom, author of “ Personal Business: Online Shopping Sites With Extra Benefits”...

In mathematics, the exponential function is the function ex, where e is the number (approximately 2.718281828) such that the function ex is its own derivative.[1][2] The exponential function is used to model a relationship in which a constant change in the independent variable gives the same proportional change (i.e. percentage increase or decrease) in the dependent variable. The function is often written as exp(x), especially when it is impractical to write the independent variable as a superscript...

used when situation is stable and historical data exist
Existing products
Current technology
Involve mathematical technique
Quantitative Forecast Methods
Time Series Models – used history data to predict future demand
Moving average, Exponentialsmoothing, Trend projection
Associative Models – Use other factor that can predict demand other that historical
Linear regression
Seasonality
Repeating upward or downward movement of demand in periods of less than one year (with in 1 year)***
...

Advantages and Disadvantages of Sole Proprietorship
Profits and Losses – Advantages: Proprietor receives all the profits because he or she takes all the risks.
Disadvantages: Losses are not shared.
Liability - Disadvantages: 1) The proprietor has unlimited liability. 2) If the firm is unable to pay its bills, the proprietor can be force to sell personal assets as well as the business to pay debts.
Management – Advantages: 1) Decisions on starting and running the business can be made...

﻿
Classificatory smoothing of Income with Extraordinary Items
- Summary
Within this paper they talk about whether extraordinary items are used to smooth ordinary or operating income over time. The role of extraordinary items was never really looked at become separately and that is what they wanted to look at. They talk about how previously the focus was on net income after extraordinary items but that it is important to look at net income before extraordinary...

Many people fear the Internet because of its disadvantages. They claim to not use the Internet because they are afraid of the possible consequences or are simply not interested. People who have yet connected to the Internet claim they are not missing anything. Today’s technological society must realize that it is up to them to protect themselves on the Internet.
Children using the Internet have become a big concern. Most parents do not realize the dangers involved when their children connect...

﻿Advantages and Disadvantages of Tourism - Short Essay
New pedagogy St vincent &amp; Grenadines Island is a small island with limited education facilities. Primarily motivated students can easily start their own education. Many people think of education as something that occurs in a school or classroom. However, knowledge-eager students can gain additional...
368 Words | 2 Pages
Advantages and Disadvantages of Tourism.
“Tourism can be a blessing to a country but it is by no means an unmixed blessing...

clear.
7. It can be used every where you go only if the person you are interacting with is with you.
8. Speech can be direct and to the point. Some non-verbal communication such as gestures have different meaning in different countries.
DISADVANTAGE OF COMMUNICATION ARE;
1. It can be quickly forgotten
2. You can not provide legal evidence.
3. Sometimes, you can not remember each and every point.
4. Poor presentation of the message or the instruction can result in misunderstanding and...