Pick: Baltimore Orioles -121 (Steve Merril)
The Orioles are playing some good baseball right now; they’ve won six of their last eight games. They return home to host Toronto who has lost four of their last five games. Brian Matusz has been key in this turn around for Baltimore by winning three straight starts against the Yankees, Red Sox, and White Sox. The tall lefty has given up just six runs and 14 hits in his last 19 innings of work. Matusz struggled in his lone start against Toronto this season back in July, but he has turned things around since then. Toronto is 11-19 against southpaw pitchers this season while hitting .217 and scoring 3.5 runs per game against them. The Blue Jays are 34-37 on the road and hitting just .241 away from home. Toronto’s Marc Rzepczynski is struggling this season going 1-4 with a 6.63 ERA in eight starts. He has given up 12 runs and 18 hits in his last 14.7 innings pitched. The Blue Jays starter has faced the Orioles just once in his career. Last year, he gave up three runs and five hits in six innings of work against them. Baltimore is hitting nearly .300 as a team in their past eight games, and since they have one of the better records in the league since Buck Showalter took over, we’ll look for their winning ways to continue in this game tonight.

Pick: Yankees vs. Rays Over 8 (Rob Vinciletti)
On Monday the Free Play is on the Over in the Yankees at Tampa Bay game. Rotation numbers 919/920 at 7:10 eastern. These two teams have played 11 games with 9 of them flying over the total. Tonight their is a solid totals system that applies to this one. We want to play the over for road favorites off a road dog loss vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog loss. This system cashed in the low 80/s percent range. Both teams are scoring over 5 runs per game in divisional play. Tampa has played over in 8 of 10 September games, while the Yankees have gone over 9 of 13 times as a road favorite from -100 to -125. Tampa has been tearing it up of late averaging over 7 runs per game the past week. CC. Sabathia has a decent but not dominating 3.74 road era. D.Price pitching for Tampa has allowed 10 earned runs in 12+ innings in 2 starts vs the Yankees this year. Consider the over here tonight. On Monday its the NL Total of the Month with a Power system that averages over 13 runs per game + the NFL Triple Angle Winner. For the free play take the Yankees at Tampa to go over the total. RV

Pick: Houston Astros -135 (Matt Fargo)
The Astros salvaged a split in their series against the Dodgers with a win on Sunday. It was the offense that got it done yesterday, something that has not been happening too much. The pitching has been the story for Houston despite the recent three-game bump in the road. The pitching staff has allowed three runs or fewer in 21 of its last 30 games, posting a 3.02 ERA over that span, and it has allowed four runs or less in 33 of its last 45 games overall. The Brewers are coming off a 3-3 homestand following a series loss to the Cubs. Milwaukee was able to salvage the final game on Sunday thanks to a solid pitching performance from Yovani Gallardo but the offense remains a problem. The Brewers scoring only two runs during their three-game series, both of which were plated on Sunday, and they are hitting a mere .220 over their last 10 games. In three games played in Houston this season, Milwaukee has scored a total of two runs as well. The Astros have a significant advantage on the mound for this game. Houston sends Brett Myers to the mound and he is having an outstanding season and remains under the radar. He has a 2.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP covering 29 starts and he has tossed 12 quality outings in his last 13 starts, all but one in which he has allowed two runs or fewer. Overall 22 of those 29 starts have been quality performances and that is a solid percentage. He has been extremely effective at home where he is 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA in 12 games with Houston going 10-2 in those contests. Christopher Narveson counters for the Brewers and while he has been effective of late, I am not sold. He has thrown three straight quality outings but his ERA has only gone from 5.52 to 5.20 showing just how bad he was before this. His numbers are slightly better on the road but considering Milwaukee’s struggles away from home recently, he is not in a good spot. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. The Astros are 15-3 in their last 18 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game so the pitching has been able to extend the opposing offense’s struggles. Also Houston is 9-0 in the second half of the season this year against teams allowing 4.8 or more rpg. 3* Houston Astros

Pick: Boston Red Sox -165 (Doug Upstone)
The Seattle Mariners scoring seven total runs in being swept by the Angels is about as surprising Lady Gaga winning VMA award on MTV last night. The M’s are batting hellacious .234 as a team scoring 3.2 runs per game and will be significant home underdogs to Boston and Jon Lester (16-8, 3.26 ERA). This Monday, Play Against baseball underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 who are batting .260 or less, (in this case well below) vs. an AL starting pitcher who has 3.50 ERA or lower on the season, when this frigid hitting squad is batting .200 or worse over their last three games. This system has been a winner 58 of the last 73 times.