Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):

That means it's likely to be renewed for another season, right? Not at all.

It means one or more of the following things:

CBS has to fill 18 hours a week with mostly new entertainment programming through May.

CBS has little faith in the other sitcoms waiting on the bench for 2013-14. No word when, or if, they will see the CBS schedule.

Mom might be renewed for 2013-14.

Which is it? Stay tuned.

Why isn't Elementary, with its ratings plunge, at least a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation? CBS hasn't canceled a second season drama since 2008 (Shark) and the Cancellation Bear's going to have to see a lot worse ratings for a period of time before guessing they'll do it this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

- certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

@KJ StylesBe that as it may, that will have to become a trend (as well as Mom eventually doing better than Crazy Ones) for Mom to survive.

Mom doesn’t necessarily need to do better than The Crazy Ones to be renewed.

The Crazy Ones won’t necessarily be renewed just because it does better than Mom.

In any case, until a freshman show starts showing growth over an extended period of time (or at least stability at an acceptable ratings level), then there is a significant potential for cancellation. It’s ridiculous to label that as delusional.

Michael

Bill, I’m not sure that Elementary will be renewed just because CBS has renewed all its other sophomore shows the past five years. Were any of the previous sophomores doing this badly? How low do you think Elementary can go before CBS decides to cancel it?

Michael

Honestly, I think these guys are being a little hard on “Mom”. It’s not the greatest comedy..but so far it’s holding up it’s own, while shows like “The Crazy Ones” begin to faulter.

As of right now… “Mom” is a “Likely to be RENEWED” for me

Michael

Here are my predictions:

The Mentalist- Cancelled/Final Season (it’s kinda obvivious if people think about it).
The Good Wife- Cancelled.
Hostages-Cancelled/moved to Saturdays (Runoff).
Two and Half Men- Cancelled

Come on people, Elementary won’t be cancelled. It is an acclaimed procedural based on legendary source material, featuring an internationally recognizable cast…and it is produced by CBS. Translation : lucrative international sales + high-class syndication material…and CBS knows that.

Steve

Two and a Half Men needs to go. It’s going to eventually have a lower R/C index than every other comedy on the air unless it does a turnaround quickly.

At this point, here’s what I think is going to happen: (comedies, highest to lowest rated). I won’t count HIMYM because it’s ending:

1. The Big Bang Theory — Cancelled — NOT!! CBS is going to give this two more seasons, minimum.
2. The Millers — this should chug along to the next season.
3. The Crazy Ones — This should hold on.
4. 2 Broke Girls — The Syndication Gods will demand a 4th season.
5. Two and a Half Men — unless Mike and Molly tanks, this show should be toast at the end of the year. Right now it’s the lowest rated sitcom on the network. (Not the aggregate. I’m talking last week)
6. Mom — I’m not sure. I think it *could* squeak a second season just because of Chuck Lorre pulling favor. If the ratings go as it will, the average should be slightly higher by the end of the season.

KJ Styles

@Ultima- “Mom doesn’t necessarily need to do better than The Crazy Ones to be renewed.”

Well I certainly don’t see a scenario in which The Crazy Ones gets cancelled and Mom gets renewed. Mom certainly won’t be renewed at the level it’s performing at.

As it currently stands, Mom is the lowest rated sitcom on CBS, and they ALWAYS cancel it’s lowest rated sitcom. I posted in a previous post the scenarios in which Mom can get renewed. Go look back at them.

The Crazy Ones is currently the 3rd highest rated sitcom on CBS. Whether or not it holds that position all season remains to be seen, but if it does it’s getting renewed. It could even fall a little bit and still get renewed. All it has to do stay above CBS’ overall scripted average.

Feedback

I think you meant 2014-15, not 2013-14.

Ultima

@KJ StylesWell I certainly don’t see a scenario in which The Crazy Ones gets cancelled and Mom gets renewed.

Week-to-week change & retention

wtw%, ret% (Mom)
(P), 89%
-14%, 92%
-4%, 91%
-4%, 91%
+9%, 96%

wtw%, ret% (Crazy Ones)
(P), 64%
-26%, 88%
-17%, 80%
even, 75%

You seriously can’t see that Mom has much more solid week-to-week numbers than The Crazy Ones? And it’s not like there’s a huge ratings disparity, Mom is within a tenth of The Crazy Ones for their most recent episodes.

I think both shows are in good shape right now, but if I had to choose the one that I think will be more successful by the end of the season based solely on the numbers (I actually like The Crazy Ones), I would choose Mom at this point.

Mom certainly won’t be renewed at the level it’s performing at.

I think Bill is being pessimistic. I would put the show at a likely renewal.

As it currently stands, Mom is the lowest rated sitcom on CBS, and they ALWAYS cancel it’s lowest rated sitcom.

They ALREADY canceled their lowest rated sitcom!

Furthermore, they have two veterans ending (Two and a Half Men cannot survive with the numbers it’s pulling) and with now eight full season sitcoms on the schedule, they don’t seem to hot to get their other shows on the air.

Bill

Little shocked to see Mentalist with 3 smileys …, I figure this season is it. At least that’s the way it seems

omabin

I think what people are forgetting here is that Two and a Half Men might be the lowest show on CBS’s comedy tent-pole right now. If Mike and Molly gets a decent hold of the 9pm hour (and I am not convinced by any means it will do better than 2BG was doing but still), I think that Two and a Half Men will the lowest rated sitcom on CBS by the end of the season. It also happens to be the most expensive (I don’t have a source, but I think it is a reasonable assumption), so I doubt it can come back like that. I could see them keep the three newbies and launching one new comedy on Monday and one on Thursdays.

This being said, if they have a good drama development season (and I think there is some degree of cyclicity here, as in, a poor development season for dramas this year could result in a great one next year if they focus more there), I could see them pulling something like cutting the comedy hours back. However, even in that case, it is not inconceivable to me that all 6 comedies (excluding Two and a Half Men) survive assuming that one is kept as sparkle (Mike and Molly again? 2 Broke Girls?) and that they premiere only new comedy on fall. It depends on their development season. Also, I don’t think it would be strange to see some rises in some of these comedies mid-season a la POI two years ago.

CBSviewer

@ Ultima and KJ Styles

It is totally possible that The Millers, The Crazy AND Mom get Renewed in May. This is what I’m thinking:

CBS should premiere two comedies on Thursday but none on Monday (The Voice is killing new Shows).

omabin

@CBSViewer,

I think people (and even CBS) are all overestimating the value of Mike and Molly. These are the show’s ratings for its last 4 episodes:
2.2, 2.4, 2.3, 2.4

I am not sure where people see the promise for high 2s since 2 Broke Girls was also even-to-lower on that timeslot from spring to fall. In my opinion, anchoring the night with Mike and Molly says more about them wanting to protect 2 Broke Girls than it says about Mike and Molly being able to take the anchor role next year as a permanent plan. I could be wrong and the show could surprise us, of course, but I am not seeing it right now.

Other than that, I agree with you that all 3 newbies could be renewed.

CBSviewer

@ omabin

What CBS could do is to premiere a new comedy on Monday at 9 and keep Mike & Molly for mid-season (13-15 episodes).

Swc316

When do you think bad teacher and friends with better lives will air? Maybe mom or two and a half men will end their seasons early?

Randy

Wow, for CBS I have never seen so many poor renew / cancel numbers. Shows have to go already. They have been holding onto too many shows for too long such as Blue Bloods, Good Wife, Mentalist, CSI, etc. I don’t know why cbs is so obsessed with crime shows. They need to expand a bit.

Anthony

Hostages is by far the worst show ever on TV. The plot is show predicatable, its almost like you know what will happen next and after the hour is over, you have wasted an hour.

I don’t know that I would call it the worst show ever, but yes it is pretty terrible. Plot holes abound, and characters just making stupid decisions make me not care at all for them and whether they survive or not. In fact I’d be excited at this point if several of them did get killed, at least it would be a logical plot point, which is sorely lacking in this show. Even the plot points trying to “soften” the image of the bad guys are eye rolling at best, am I supposed to feel sorry for a drug smuggler, who got in deep trouble and now has to help murder the president to get the money she needs to pay back her debt? Having said that I do plan on continuing to watch just to see how much worse it can get (I can’t even imagine what ridiculous places they are going to take this with 10 more hours in the story to fill).

Sam

I think the Mentalist is the best show there. I can’t understand why it’s so low.

ToXiX

@swc316

Bad Teacher will not air.

KJ Styles

@Ultima- “You seriously can’t see that Mom has much more solid week-to-week numbers than The Crazy Ones? And it’s not like there’s a huge ratings disparity, Mom is within a tenth of The Crazy Ones for their most recent episodes.”

That’s just one episode. The Crazy Ones rates 20% higher than Mom for the season. Also, networks don’t care about retention. Maybe the CW does but not the big four.

“I think both shows are in good shape right now, but if I had to choose the one that I think will be more successful by the end of the season based solely on the numbers (I actually like The Crazy Ones), I would choose Mom at this point.”

How do you figure that? Mom’s season high was a 2.5 thus far, that’s only a tenth higher than The Crazy Ones season low. The numbers clearly favor The Crazy Ones.

I like The Crazy Ones a lot. I wanted to like Mom but the pilot didn’t impress me, that plus it’s on Monday against MNF. I may give it another chance next week because next week’s game sucks. The Millers is actually the weakest of the new CBS comedies IMO, but unfortunately it’s the highest rated because it has Big Bang as a lead in. What sucks even worse about this is that we probably won’t get another Arrested Development season. That show is not the same without Will Arnett.

“I think Bill is being pessimistic. I would put the show at a likely renewal.”

It’s a bubble show at best right now. For it to become a likely renewal, it has to get above CBS’ scripted average. They aren’t as lenient with their sitcoms as they are with their dramas.

“They ALREADY canceled their lowest rated sitcom!”

True, but Mom is the lowest remaining sitcom left on the schedule.

“Furthermore, they have two veterans ending (Two and a Half Men cannot survive with the numbers it’s pulling).”

Even Two & A Half Men is higher rated than Mom though. I think Mom will have to leapfrog it to get renewed, either that or if Kutcher decides not to return. If that happens then 2.5 Men will end and Mom has a shot. CBSViewer had a good scenario.

“and with now eight full season sitcoms on the schedule, they don’t seem to hot to get their other shows on the air.”

Yeah, I think Friends With Better Lives will get the Goodwin Games treatment, and Bad Teacher will get the Friend Me treatment.