Football Form Labs - weekend preview

Sports betting has evolved in recent years, gut instinct and opinion have mostly been replaced by databases and algorithmic trading models. One of the very best of those is Football Form Labs who have shared their wisdom with a preview of some of this week's action. You can also follow Football Form Labs on Twitter, @footballformlab

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Football Form Labs provide the most effective football betting software on the market with the ability to analyse games both pre-match and in-play across 50 different leagues. You can also generate your own models and see the statistical impact players have when they are missing.

It will probably be said in the build up to this match that David Moyes has never won at Anfield in the Premier League, but then again he’s never gone there as favourites with Robin van Persie leading the attack. Strangely, though, the bookies don’t think he’s favourite this time either.

Liverpool are still without the suspended Luis Suarez and while their record of W6-D1-L0 without the Uruguayan since the start of last season looks impressive the best team they’ve faced in those games was Everton, a game they drew 0-0, and they’ve scored just twice in the three home matches he’s missed. Moreover, Liverpool have lost five and won only one of their last seven meetings with the Red Devils and in the past two seasons their record of hosting top four finishers is just W0-D5-L3.

Man Utd have lost just one of their last 19 away games, winning 13 times, and in the past two seasons they’ve gone W8-D7-L3 away to top-half finishers. Moyes has an almost fully fit team and 2.9 is a huge price for the champions. However, the draw arguably looks slightly better value and we’d split stakes between the draw at 3.4 and the away win at 2.9.

Liverpool’s ability to unlock a good defence without Suarez is doubtful and with their own excellent defensive record at home of 12 clean sheets in their last 17 home matches under-goals looks likely. After a shaky start to last season for their defence when they conceded twice in each of their opening three home games – admittedly against Man Utd, Man City and Arsenal – nine of Liverpool’s last 17 home games have had -2.5 goals with seven having -1.5.

Eight of the 10 meetings between these teams since 2008/09 have actually had more than two goals but this tends to be the quieter fixture with three of the last four at Anfield being goalless at the break and both -2.5 goals at 2.0 and the second half to be the highest scoring period at 2.2 are both attractive looking bets.

Borussia Moenchengladbach v Werder Bremen

M’gladbach won their opening home game comfortably but have lost their other two matches, which have been tough trips to Leverkusen and Bayern. They’ve lost only two of their last 12 home matches, where they tend to be strong, and those were against Bayern and Schalke at the end of last season. In fact when removing last season’s top five their home record is an impressive W9-D2-L2 with seven wins to nil and seven having been ahead by half-time.

Werder Bremen won their opening two games before losing at Dortmund last weekend. Those wins were against likely relegation candidates and although they lost by just one at Dortmund it really should have been by more. Werder lost at eight of the top 10 finishers last season, and the year before they lost at all the top nine so they tend to struggle on the road. They are unlikely to be as gung-ho under Robin Dutt as they were under the legendary Thomas Schaaf but while they may keep it tight early on, and so we’d avoid the half-time/full-time result the home team look decent value favourites and Moenchengladbach can be backed at 1.85.

All three of Werder’s games under Dutt have had exactly one goal and without Schaaf in charge and De Bruyne as playmaker they look much weaker offensively. Given 10 of Moenchengladbach’s last 15 home games have featured fewer than three goals, with only Bayern and Leverkusen scoring more than once here, under 2.5 goals looks a big price at 2.16. Furthermore, Werder Bremen’s last five away matches where they’ve failed to score before half-time have all ended with fewer than three goals and M’gladbach have conceded before the break in just two of their last 12 home games.

FC Ural v Rubin Kazan

FC Ural are a promoted team in Russia and they’ve not got off to the best start with just one win in their opening six games but they got a draw at home against the defending champions CSKA and with such large distances between the teams home advantage could be key for them this season.

They’ve conceded just one first half goal in four home matches and while Spartak and CSKA both went on to score twice hey kept a clean sheet in their most recent home game. Rubin are very tough to beat but they’ve not won in nine away days and they’ve scored just once in their last four matches as they’ve had three goalless draws. While FC Ural are a bit of an unknown Kazan look a bit too short and promoted teams have lost only 42% of home games against top-half sides since 2008 so we’d back Ural on the Asian Handicap +0.5 at 1.97.

We’ve mentioned Ural’s decent home stats in the first half and the fact that there have been very few goals in Kazan games so ‘unders’ looks a possibility here. Six of Kazan’s last nine trips to promoted teams have had -2.5 goals as have eight of their last 11 on the road when failing to score before half-time (5/11 -1.5 goals). Under 2.5 goals looks a good price at 1.78.

Please note that we advise keeping stakes low with the winter leagues until they are more developed as the early weeks tend to be inconsistent.

Using Football Form Labs you can identify thousands of betting opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues.

PLAYER ANALYSIS
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a couple of Championship players who will be missing this weekend and see what that might mean.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.

Premier League

Man City vs. Hull

Vincent Kompany, Defender and Captain, Man City

Kompany has missed 14 matches since the start of last season and Man City’s performances have suffered in these fixtures. Without him, their loss percentage increases from 8% to 36%, and their average goals conceded per game increases by 0.44. Furthermore, in their last 50 home games they are unbeaten with Kompany present but have lost 18% of matches without him.

La Liga

Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid

Arda Turan, Midfielder, Atletico Madrid

Turan was sent off in midweek having already been substituted and since the start of last season Atletico have won only 6/11 matches without him. Moreover, six of the 11 games have had fewer than three goals compared to 64% of the matches he’s played in having +2.5 strikes.

Valladolid v Getafe

Patrick Ebert, Midfielder, Valladolid

Ebert has missed 19 of 40 games since the start of last season and Valladolid’s win rate has fallen from 38% with him to just 16% without. Furthermore, they’ve won just two of eight home matches that he’s missed.

Form Lab Black can analyse the impact players on team trends to provide the most complete betting solution.

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Former Head of Education at Betfair, now in the outside world stirring up controversy, keeping punters informed and doing a bit of consulting and writing. Proud Australian who has been 'visiting' London for a few too many years now. Available for betting editorial, previews and industry comment. Contact me at scottf at journalist.com.Now regularly covering major race meetings and sporting events via guest blogger previews. Keen to have a go? Drop me a line...