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Monday, December 31, 2012

Why Carmelo Can Never Be MVP as Long as LeBron Exists

There's a campaign out there to peg Carmelo with an MVP. It's a writer's award, and as such the storyline is the primary criterion. One of the worst MVP winners in modern history was Derrick Rose. The Bulls improved their record from a 0.500 record in 2010 to an impressive 62 wins. The consensus was to give the credit to Rose, even though he was on the team the year before and he's primarily a scorer and distributor on a team made elite by its defense ranked second in the league at 100.3 for a defensive rating. Rose did make progress, but there was another change: the team went from arguably the worst coach in the league, Vinny del Negro, to arguably the best coach of the year, Thibodeau. They also inherited Brewer and Asik, who could combine with Gibson to form a Cerberus defensive-beast off the bench. Rose would prove his value the next season when he missed two-thirds of the season, only to have his team tie for the best record in the league.

Again, Rose's primary value is his scoring, but in his MVP year he averaged an impressive but not earth-shattering 25 a game, which was eclipsed by several people including LeBron and Carmelo. Since Rose averaged 25 with a pleasant but not great TS% of 55, at the very most you could say compared to LeBron they're tied for value attached to scoring, and that's extremely generous. The only real advantage Rose has is that he's a point guard, but he averaged 7.7 assists, which is something that even as a small forward LeBron can do. In fact, that year he averaged 7 assists. I waved off LeBron's superior shooting efficiency, and maybe you could argue Rose has more of a burden, but LeBron scored more points at better efficiency and with the same amount of assists with a paltry staff in Cleveland. It's hard to argue Rose is better offensively in objective terms. Add in defense, where LeBron is a terror thanks to his versatility in strength, size and speed, and there's no contest. That's the logical end to their comparisons. LeBron is the benchmark for all MVPs, and as long as he's healthy you have to prove you're more valuable. The only thing Rose had was his team's better win-loss record, which is a team result, not an individual one ... except that Miami had a better point differential, which is a better indication of a team's strength. So the entire edifice, the only objective MVP criterion for Rose's status as MVP, is destroyed -- and Miami got the last laugh by beating them in the playoffs with LeBron guarding Rose for long strenghts, and then the next year with a title.

Carmelo has to clear the same hurdle. Carmelo derives nearly all of his value from scoring with a hidden elite skill in rebounding, which LeBron eclipses anyway. And Carmelo's increased defensive value and focus? It'd be bizarre to call it nothing less than significantly worse than LeBron's. However, this is the first year since perhaps their rookie year since Carmelo's scoring is arguably superior. King James is actually being outscored, and although his shooting efficiency is still superior the gap is small.

The point here is to prove that with scoring Carmelo and LeBron are at least tied, because once taking into account the other factors of the game Carmelo has no chance at being more valuable. Let's skip forward to tables 2 and 3 and analyze how Carmelo is scoring so well and how it compares with James.

Table 1: Overall statistics comparison

LeBron James

Carmelo Anthony

Year

Pts / game

Pts/36 mins

Asts

Rebs

Reb %

PER

WS

Year

Pts / game

Pts/36 mins

Asts

Rebs

Reb %

PER

WS

2007

27.3

24.1

6

6.7

9.6

24.5

13.7

2007

28.9

27.2

3.8

6

8.9

22.1

7.3

2008

30

26.8

7.2

7.9

11.1

29.1

15.2

2008

25.7

25.4

3.4

7.4

11

21.1

8.2

2009

28.4

27.2

7.2

7.6

11.9

31.7

20.3

2009

22.8

23.8

3.4

6.8

11.5

19

5

2010

29.7

27.4

8.6

7.3

11.1

31.1

18.5

2010

28.2

26.6

3.2

6.6

9.9

22.2

7.9

2011

26.7

24.8

7

7.5

11.4

27.3

15.6

11:DEN

25.2

25.5

2.8

7.6

12.4

21.2

4.7

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

11:NYK

26.3

26.2

3

6.7

10.6

22.8

3.2

2012

27.1

26

6.2

7.9

12.6

30.7

14.5

2012

22.6

23.9

3.6

6.3

10.6

21.1

6.2

2013

25.9

24.6

6.9

8.5

13.5

29.8

6.1

2013

28.5

28.2

1.9

6.2

9.9

25.8

3.7

Carmelo is shooting much more often with a usage % of 34, meaning he's using over one-third of his team's plays when he's on the court. Throughout the last few years, the two have basically been even with LeBron usually possessing the significantly better TS%. However, Carmelo is having a career year in usage and efficiency, which is quite rare. In fact, a closer look at how Carmelo is shooting at various spots on the floor reveals the rarity might be brief: he also has career highs in outside shooting percentages. He's taking 6 three's a game, for example, and hitting them at an elite rate of 43.4. LeBron is also having a career year in three-point percentage, but he relies on them less and there's something weird about his long-range 2-pointers. Knick fans may think I'm nitpicking with labeling Carmelo's outside shooting as a fluke, but there's a short list of people who have taken at least 6 three's a game with a percentage of 42 or higher, and looking at the list they're snipers known for three-point shooting: does Carmelo belong there? If he had been shooting at a modest percentage of 35, which is still above his career percentage, he drops 1.5 points per game and his TS% down to 58.

Table 2: LeBron James' shooting statistics

Year

Usage %

TS%

Rim FGA

Rim FG%

3-9 ft. FGA

3-9 ft. FG%

10-15 ft FGA

10-15 ft FG%

16-23 FGA

16-23 FG%

3PT FGA

3PT%

2007

31

55.2

6.7

72

2.2

44

1.9

36

5.6

34

3.5

31.9

2008

33.5

56.8

8

71

1.8

44

1.5

32

5.6

37

4.3

31.5

2009

33.8

59.1

7

72

1.8

49

1.4

25

5.9

40

4.5

34.4

2010

33.5

60.4

6.9

73.3

1.5

53.5

1.2

32.2

5.6

40

4.7

33.3

2011

31.5

59.4

6.1

72.1

2.4

44.4

1.6

44.7

5.5

45

3.3

33

2012

32

60.5

7.1

75.4

2.2

47.3

2.3

47

6

39

2.3

36.2

2013

29.9

61.2

7.3

77.2

1.8

55.6

1.5

41.4

4.5

40

3.1

43.3

Table 3: Carmelo Anthony's shooting statistics

Year

Usage %

TS%

Rim FGA

Rim FG%

3-9 ft. FGA

3-9 ft. FG%

10-15 ft FGA

10-15 ft FG%

16-23 FGA

16-23 FG%

3PT FGA

3PT%

2007

33.4

55.2

9.9

63

1.7

43

1.7

29

7.2

39

2.3

26.8

2008

30.2

56.8

8

66

1.4

32

2.5

33

6.5

44

2.1

35.4

2009

31.5

53.2

7.5

57

1.6

43

2.3

33

6.8

39

2.6

37.1

2010

33.4

54.8

8.3

59.6

1.9

33.1

2.3

42.7

7.4

40

2.7

31.6

2011:DEN

32.5

54.7

8.2

55.6

1.5

32.3

2

37.9

7.3

43

2.5

33.3

2011:NYK

31

57.5

5.9

66.2

1.9

26.1

2.3

36.8

6.6

40

4.6

42.4

2012

31.8

52.5

6.8

59.9

1.6

31.5

2.6

42.3

6.6

35

3.7

33.5

2013

34

59.2

7.5

53.7

1.4

24

2

42.9

5.2

48

6

43.4

Carmelo is actually slumping near the basket: his rim percentage is abnormally low; however, he's overachieving with his 16-23 foot jump shots, so it's hard to give him leeway there. When Carmelo inevitably declines, a case can still be made that his scoring has more value this season, but he's one-dimensional. He's averaging a pitiful 1.9 assists while LeBron is near 7. LeBron has an edge in shooting efficiency with more sustainable percentages, Carmelo has a slightly larger lead in volume, but his foe destroys him on passing -- offensively, it's not a clear case Carmelo is better, and once you factor in defense it'd be silly to argue Carmelo as the MVP over LeBron. The advanced stats -- WS and PER -- take into account everything on the box score, and Carmelo is destroyed there. What's worse is that the problems with relying on box score stats only help LeBron's position: it's an inaccurate way to measure defense.

Right now the media has him as the storyline of the year, and although his combination of elite efficiency and volume is impressive, it's something LeBron has done for many years. In fact, the fabled team record to which catapults Carmelo into the discussion is also on uneasy ground: they're 2nd in offensive efficiency thanks to a deadly three-point assault, but Kidd, Carmelo and others are having career highs in three-point percentage. If Miami holds the lead in the standings at the end of the season, Carmelo will have no credible argument -- and now that LeBron has a ring, his resume is sterling, and a player has to have a historic season to match him.

As an addendum, one problem with the MVP is voter fatigue. It was boring for people to keep voting for Jordan, and it's boring to keep voting for LeBron. However, I think that necessitates an Offensive Player of the Year award. With only a DPOTY award, it implies the MVP is the offensive equivalent and defense is more for specialists. With their being an offensive and defensive award, perhaps it would make people realize a most valuable "player" counts on both sides of the court. It could also be used to award players who do something incredible on one side of the court like Nash.

It would lead to really interesting discussions during some seasons. This year, for example, LeBron is LeBron, Chris Paul is a wizard with the ball and steers the offense while remaining a sharp-shooter, and Durant is combining efficiency and volume in a way that's only happened three times in the history of basketball. Add in the ancient Kobe leading the league in scoring and Carmelo on the Knicks, the OPOTY trophy would be an interesting race -- and one with hopefully more sensible results than some previous MVP awards.