Saturdays in October ranged from chilly to beyond severe winter. We lived 17 miles north of Maidstone in an old school house. You drove to the Allan Store from Maidstone—past Silver Lake—and turned left at the store, drove to the first crossing on the north road. That was us. One summer, riding my bike to Allan Store from the house, I encountered hundreds of “bertha armyworms” and they killed a lot of crops around my house. Dad told me to run over as many as I could with my bike, so I did. Don’t think it helped much, though.

In winter, say 1970, I used to get up early on Saturday mornings. My Dad went to work at Husky about 5, and I would watch the headlights fade before quietly putting on my boots and coat to head outside. We had this incredible outside light, must have been 10 trillion watts, it lit up the night and gave the entire a yard an impressive look. I would take one of my Dad’s saw horses, which was about the size of a net, and put 10 gallon buckets in front to represent the goalie. I was always the Bruins (when my brother would play with me, he got to be the Bruins and I had to be the Habs or Leafs. I went Leafs) and would play for a long time before the sun would come up or Mom would call me in for breakfast.

I can still remember the cool air in my lungs—it can be hard to breathe when the air is that cold—and playing road hockey all alone. Keith Schwartz, our neighbor, would drive by about 7am and yell “he scores” but that was okay because I liked him fine. HNIC was 11 hours away and there was a full day to go. Me? I was running through the lines in my brain and beating the Habs in the SCF. I could tell you what year it was based on Orr’s partner, although Dallas Smith had the job for a few years there. Me, a puck, Sher-wood or Victoriaville stick, and an imagination forged by love of the game, isolation and the fact it was 5am and my feet were frozen. Damned fool if you want the truth. I loved every minute of it.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7

Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10

Oilers in October 2017: 1-0-0, goal differential +3

One of the key elements to last season’s success was a quick start for Edmonton. By the end of October there was a sense the formula had a chance to work. The stated goal was playoffs and it should be again. Looking past making the postseason would be a ridiculous thing to do.

CURRENT STANDINGS

The Oilers are on top and that’s a good thing but the major item is Vegas, baby! James Neal scored twice last night, driving up the eventual price for Edmonton to acquire him at the trade deadline. That was a fun win for the expansion kids, they could be more entertaining than the 1974-75 Washington Capitals.

TONIGHT’S PROJECTED LINEUP

Patrick Maroon—Connor McDavid—Leon Draisaitl

Milan Lucic—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Kailer Yamamoto/Zack Kassian

Drake Caggiula—Ryan Strome—Jussi Jokinen

Jujhar Khaira—Mark Letestu—Zack Kassian/Iiro Pakarinen

Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson

Kris Russell—Matt Benning

Darnell Nurse—Eric Gryba

Cam Talbot (Laurent Brossoit)

Based on practice yesterday (Bob verbal) we could see Iiro Pakarinen drawing in and Kailer Yamamoto sitting, but that’s a guess and we’ll know more later in the day. The team will want to see Yamamoto settle in and perhaps running him out there again is the best plan, with Kassian able to slide up from the 4R slot as required.

OILERS FORWARDS 2017-18

This is the format I plan to use this season. Boxcar numbers are 5×5, I do include 5×4/60 but not the power-play numbers. Corsi For (I’m abandoning Matt Fenwick, again) and Corsi Rel explains itself. I’m using NaturalStatTrick’s high-danger chance number but there was some wobble a year ago so may not continue or could replace.

Not much to say early days, beyond McDavid’s insane scoring number and the pure dominance of his line.

That McDavid line had 11 high-danger chances according to NST, seems about right.

OILERS DEFENSE 2017-18

Same format as above.

The Klefbom-Larsson pairing was fantastic, Nurse-Gryba did well.

Russell-Benning’s numbers did not shine but I liked their game. Oilers Nerd Alert explained it in a brilliant tweet yesterday.

I might delete the final column and run something else there. We’ll see.

The Bakersfield Condors outshot the Stockton Heat by a bunch and still lost 4-1. The highlight was Ethan Bear’s first pro goal, assists to Jesse Puljujari and Caleb Jones. The Condors twitter feed is outstanding, and Ryan Holt (pbp guy) offers excellent insight as well. Condors were zero for five on the power play, plenty of talent but the centermen lack offensive acumen as a group. It’s going to be an issue. Finally, that Stockton team is very good. There are a few guys at the NHL level with less talent than men like Mark Jankowski and Andrew Mangiapane. Flames are doing curious things.

PROSPECTS MAKING NEWS

Stuart Skinner is having a nice start for Lethbridge, 33 stops last night in a 4-1 win. He sits at 5gp, 2.82 .919 this morning.

Ostap Safin had another big night for the Saint-John Sea Dogs. He is now 7gp, 3-5-8 on the year.

Kirill Maksimovis under suspension currently for the Niagara Ice Dogs but is 5gp, 3-4-7 so far.

Filip Berglund is 6gp, 1-3-4 early in his SHL season. His NHLE (early days alert) is 31.7. His team is in action currently and he has one shot on goal.

Dylan Wells is 6gp, 3.12 .918 for Peterborough Petes.

Bogdan Yakimov is 18gp, 2-2-4 for Neftekhimik (KHL).

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– as soon as I posted that I thought to myself “maybe it’s not clear that I mean that in he next game summary the gf ga for each player on the ice” which was the topic in previous threads

– Again, I can keep score thanks. I can’t keep track of who is on ice for goals scored and against. I think it’s a valuable thing to kn ow because I know that’s what the coaches and players look at when the game is done. They are all handed sheets with this info and others.

– as soon as I posted that I thought to myself “maybe it’s not clear that I mean that in he next game summary the gf ga for each player on the ice” which was the topic in previous threads

– Again, I can keep score thanks. I can’t keep track of who is on ice for goals scored and against. I think it’s a valuable thing to kn ow because I know that’s what the coaches and players look at when the game is done. They are all handed sheets with this info and others.

I’m not sure what you want from me, kinger. It takes about one hour to do the graphs after the game. I use the things that have value to me. If you don’t want that, what would you have me do? I’m not really interested in running the things you value because they exist across the numbers universe.

– as soon as I posted that I thought to myself “maybe it’s not clear that I mean that in he next game summary the gf ga for each player on the ice” which was the topic in previous threads

– Again, I can keep score thanks. I can’t keep track of who is on ice for goals scored and against. I think it’s a valuable thing to kn ow because I know that’s what the coaches and players look at when the game is done. They are all handed sheets with this info and others.

Plus/minus is easily available pretty much in real time on NHL.com for every game.

Lowetide: I’m not sure what you want from me, kinger. It takes about one hour to do the graphs after the game. I use the things that have value to me. If you don’t want that, what would you have me do? I’m not really interested in running the things you value because they exist across the numbers universe.

Lowetide: I’m not sure what you want from me, kinger. It takes about one hour to do the graphs after the game. I use the things that have value to me. If you don’t want that, what would you have me do? I’m not really interested in running the things you value because they exist across the numbers universe.

Perhaps we’ll go for a time without graphs.

– I was just making the observation the corsi often isn’t a proxy for what actually happened

– short hand comments can get misconstrued. Your charts are awesome.

– I was just highlighting the discrepancy between the stat you shared vs actual results. Gf ga per player. adds something on a game by game basis for discussion IMO when you do the analysis in those great charts.

– carry on I’ll keep track of the score thanks. And keep doing what your doing!

Oilers deserved to lose. Slept walked through the first half of the game. Slow to make decisions, slow to move the puck. No jump.
Disappointing game for the first line and Benning was bad. Liked the second line though.

To me it looked like we couldn’t match their effort until about halfway through the game but it was already 3-1. We pushed back in which was good, but their goalie played great and we go home empty handed.

Let’s hope getting outworked does not become a habit. The whole “not going to sneak up on anybody anymore thing.”

I’m not sure whether to chalk it up to us taking them lightly, or credit them for playing real hard, a little of both probably.

LB was terrific.

On to the next one. I don’t like VAN’s chances their first game back in EDM.

Well, that was a disappointing game last night – I’m not all that surprises but definitively disappointed.

I don’t understand how a player can go from putting himself in the same sentence as the all-time greats in one game to absolutely terrible in the next game. That was the worst game I’ve ever seen McDavid play.

Benning, Russell and McDavid were the worst players on the ice. Gryba and Klefbom were not much better.

The only positives for me:

– 2nd line was OK – Nuge was pretty good and Kassian and Lucic actually had decently good games

– Brossoit was sensational

– Larsson had an OK game

– Nurse – lots of not so good plays but he was at least involved and in to the game – he skated miles – if only he had any knowhow of what to do offensively.

A lot of people not liking Benning’s game last night, but I thought he got better as the game went on. He got burned by Horvat on that PPG but seemed learned from his mistake and didn’t get beat again after that.
I liked the second line last night too. Kassian plays high energy hockey.
Oilers best player was LB no question.

1) Gryba is not an NHL D man and is a terrible choice for Nurse’s develpment. It’s hurting him seriously.
2) Russell has all the try in the world which is great. But is truly a 3rd pairing D. This is bad for Benning’s development.
3) Talbot let in 1 terrible goal.
4) RNH, Kassian, and Broissoit were fantastic.
5) I hate to say it and i’m not gonna hate on the guy but Lucic is going to be a major anchor for this team, if he isnt already.
6) They need to find a way to have Drai as 2C and McDavid as 1C. They will never go far with these 2 on the same lines… as much as they are good together. Offence from 1 line gets you nowhere.
7) Other team brought their A game. Edmonton brought their C game.

Having said all that it’s 1 game. I’m not freaking out about it. But the weaknesses that many of us have harped on all summer still exist. The D is not good enough. And theres 1 scoring line each night. Move RNH up with McD and Drai to 2C, bring in a shoot 1st winger, something is going to have to give.

admiralmark:
1) Gryba is not an NHL D man and is a terrible choice for Nurse’s develpment. It’s hurting him seriously.
2) Russell has all the try in the world which is great. But is truly a 3rd pairing D. This is bad for Benning’s development.

It is not wise to try to develop young defensemen when their partners don’t play like a “normal” defensemen because of their limitations.

After the mistake of signing Russell for more than one season, Nurse should be with Larsson and Benning with Klefbom and the two misfits, Russell and Gryba with each other.

Russell defends by retreating which has to unnerve any young defensemen he plays with. And Gryba’s inability to pass the puck, means Nurse is forced to carry it out more than he should, when he should be learning to pass more.

godot10: It is not wise to try to develop young defensemen when their partners don’t play like a “normal” defensemen because of their limitations.

After the mistake of signing Russell for more than one season, Nurse should be with Larsson and Benning with Klefbom and the two misfits, Russell and Gryba with each other.

Russell defends by retreating which has to unnerve any young defensemen he plays with.And Gryba’s inability to pass the puck, means Nurse is forced to carry it out more than he should, when he should be learning to pass more.