I've been in a number of restaurants over the past week, each packed to the gills, have had several taxi drivers tell me that their takings are excellent, and the shops have had their best Christmas for years.

(Have been in the Westbury and Shelbourne over the w/e also and the Champagne bars are back in business in a big way).

Are we on the way back up ?

Last edited by camroc1 on Tue Apr 16, 2013 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan published full-year exchequer returns today.RelatedIncome tax revenues are EUR230 million behind target | 04/12/2012Exchequer remains on target for 2012 tax take | 03/11/2012Coalition parties sign off on bulk of budget despite rows | 03/12/2012PRSI budget increase proposed in return for welfare safety net | 10/10/2012The Exchequer deficit in 2012 was €10.8 billion lower than 2011, end of year figures released by the Department of Finance have shown.

Tax revenue was up by €2.6 billion, a 7.7 per cent year-on-year increase. When adjustments are made, it is a 5.3 per cent increase in tax revenue in the year. Total tax receipts for 2012 were €36.65bn.

December taxes were better than expected with a surplus over €440 million in the month. Corporation tax, VAT, stamp duties, capital gains tax and customs were all ahead of normal, but income tax, excise duties and capital acquisitions tax were below normal.

Figures showed non-tax revenue was up by €45 million

The expenditure for 2012 was in line with target with overspends in health and social protection offset by underspending in other areas.

The non-voted capital expenditure was down by €8.3bn as a result of the settlement of the IBRC promissory note with Government bonds and the fact that July 2011 banking recapitalisation payments were not repeated last year.

On the negative side, the non-voted spend was up by €1.49bn, mainly due to servicing the debt while capital receipts were down €236 million.

In a statement, Minister for Finance Michael Noonan and the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Brendan Howlin said the figures show the “continued improvement we are making”.

Irrational exuberance. Just because people are anecdotally spending more this Christmas - it really doesn't tell us that we've turned a corner. I reckon that a lot of the previous fear of a total meltdown has abated, albeit irrationally. I see the property sector is hitting the media hard this new year with the erroneous message that things have stabilised. They have not, the rate of decline has merely decreased.

Irrational exuberance. Just because people are anecdotally spending more this Christmas - it really doesn't tell us that we've turned a corner. I reckon that a lot of the previous fear of a total meltdown has abated, albeit irrationally. I see the property sector is hitting the media hard this new year with the erroneous message that things have stabilised. They have not, the rate of decline has merely decreased.

Irrational exuberance. Just because people are anecdotally spending more this Christmas - it really doesn't tell us that we've turned a corner. I reckon that a lot of the previous fear of a total meltdown has abated, albeit irrationally. I see the property sector is hitting the media hard this new year with the erroneous message that things have stabilised. They have not, the rate of decline has merely decreased.

It's dangerous to take small wealthy enclaves and try to extrapolate this to a nationwide recovery on the basis that Dublin will lead the way. Dublin isn't leading the way, small parts of residential Dublin have recorded a blip on the graph relative to last year. We need more data to draw any conclusion about a trend.

Irrational exuberance. Just because people are anecdotally spending more this Christmas - it really doesn't tell us that we've turned a corner. I reckon that a lot of the previous fear of a total meltdown has abated, albeit irrationally. I see the property sector is hitting the media hard this new year with the erroneous message that things have stabilised. They have not, the rate of decline has merely decreased.

It's dangerous to take small wealthy enclaves and try to extrapolate this to a nationwide recovery on the basis that Dublin will lead the way. Dublin isn't leading the way, small parts of residential Dublin have recorded a blip on the graph relative to last year. We need more data to draw any conclusion about a trend.

What would be a healthy level of residential construction for a country like Ireland? I gather its close to zero at present, with most of the oversupply in unattractive areas. Nama are also distorting the situation. My philosophy is that low house prices are in general a good thing for an economy.

What would be a healthy level of residential construction for a country like Ireland? I gather its close to zero at present, with most of the oversupply in unattractive areas. Nama are also distorting the situation. My philosophy is that low house prices are in general a good thing for an economy.

10 -15% of GDP would be healthy.

We are at about 5%, maybe a bit under now.

It is a very labour intensive industry, and money spent on construction tends to go straight back into the local community.

EDIT AT the tippy top of the boom construction was approaching 25% of GDP.

irishtimes.com - Last Updated: Friday, January 4, 2013, 08:58Services buoyed by surging exportsRelatedStability returning after four years of turmoil but challenges remain | 04/01/2013Services growth at five year high | 05/12/2012Rise in business from abroad helps push up services activity | 06/12/2012Services sector still growing - survey | 06/11/2012EOIN BURKE-KENNEDY

Activity in Ireland’s services sector grew for a fifth month in succession on the back of the biggest surge in new export orders since September 2006.

The latest NCB Stockbrokers purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of activity for the sector fell slightly to 55.8 in December from 56.1 the previous month. However, it remained comfortably above the 50 mark which separates contraction from growth.

The index is compiled from a survey of more than 600 companies, ranging from hotels and hairdressers to IT firms and telecoms

Both the sub-indices for new orders and new export business were in positive territory again last month, pointing to continued momentum in the sector.

The volume of new export business received by Irish service providers rose for the 17th successive month, with December’s figure of 61.3, the highest recorded since September 2006 and the third highest rate recorded since its inclusion in the index a decade ago.

The NCB’s sub-index for new business also grew sharply, with survey respondents mentioning launch of new products and also more new business from overseas markets, with the Middle East and UK cited as areas of particular strength.

Also encouraging was the rate of job creation in the sector which grew for the fourth successive month to remain at a five-year high.

The survey indicated three of the four components of the services sector - travel and leisure, business services and technology, media and telecommunications recorded growth in staffing levels during December while financial services remained unchanged.

The NCB’s survey did, however, point to an ongoing mismatch between input costs, which increased for 25th successive month and output charges which have been in negative territory since August 2008. “This continues to weigh on profitability in the sector,” said NCB economist Philip O'Sullivan.

Irrational exuberance. Just because people are anecdotally spending more this Christmas - it really doesn't tell us that we've turned a corner. I reckon that a lot of the previous fear of a total meltdown has abated, albeit irrationally. I see the property sector is hitting the media hard this new year with the erroneous message that things have stabilised. They have not, the rate of decline has merely decreased.

I don't think a bit of irrationality is a bad thing. I think we talked ourselves into a worse situation than it needed to be initially so no harm talking our way out of it a bit.

In terms of a total meltdown, I would think that's now down to external factors out of our control?

inShare1 of 2IDA Ireland says prospects for 2013 are promising Barry O'Leary says key global companies continue to select Ireland as a destination of choiceIDA Ireland has said that 6,570 net jobs were created by IDA companies last year.In its end of year review, the Government agency responsible for attracting foreign direct investment said that job losses were the lowest in a decade.A total of 12,722 positions were created by IDA-supported companies last year, but 6,152 jobs were also lost.The IDA said its client base in Ireland now employs 152,785 people, a level last recorded before the global financial crisis in 2008.The biggest single project last year was the creation of 1,000 positions at Paypal in Dundalk, Co Louth.Other big investments included Northern Trust, Apple, EA Games, Cisco, Allergan and Eli Lilly.There were 145 individual investments last year, with 66 (over 40%) from companies coming to Ireland for the first time.The IDA said the prospects for 2013 are promising, but there are challenges due to the global slowdown and competition from other countries.According to figures from Forfás, IDA client exports rose by 7.5% in 2011, faster than the national average of 5.7%.It also noted that IDA companies spent €18.8 billion in the Irish economy in 2011, up 10% compared to 2010 data.Expenditure on Irish sourced materials rose from €1.5 billion to €1.7 billion, while IDA firms also spent €9.6 billion on Irish-sourced services last year, up from €8.5 billion in 2010.IDA Ireland Chief Executive Barry O'Leary said that key global companies continue to select Ireland as a destination of choice because of the country's talented workforce, technology capability, corporation tax and our strong FDI track record.Mr O'Leary said: "Ireland's leading FDI companies have strong economic substance here in terms of large-scale employment and investment."But Ireland faces a highly competitive landscape, with notable strong competition arising from the UK, the Netherlands and Switzerland and many other countries."Keywords: ida ireland, jobs

So we've got mortgages in arrears out the wazoo but there were just 10 evictions carried out in Dublin in 2012. The owners of all these properties would like to extend a very warm new year message of thanks to the taxpayer for funding this largesse.

Irrational exuberance. Just because people are anecdotally spending more this Christmas - it really doesn't tell us that we've turned a corner. I reckon that a lot of the previous fear of a total meltdown has abated, albeit irrationally. I see the property sector is hitting the media hard this new year with the erroneous message that things have stabilised. They have not, the rate of decline has merely decreased.

It's dangerous to take small wealthy enclaves and try to extrapolate this to a nationwide recovery on the basis that Dublin will lead the way. Dublin isn't leading the way, small parts of residential Dublin have recorded a blip on the graph relative to last year. We need more data to draw any conclusion about a trend.

The National Treasury Management Agency has sold €2.5 billion of 2017 bonds in its first syndicated sovereign deal since 2010, having received orders worth more than €7 billion.

The last time Ireland raised funds through a syndicated deal – which differs from an auction in that the price is pre-agreed – was before the EU-IMF bailout programme of December 2010.

Ireland looks likely to become the first sovereign to successfully exit a euro zone bailout programme and is expected to issue approximately €10 billion of debt this year.

"It was an excellent deal for Ireland ... There was a decent spread of demand across geographies. We've seen a few accounts getting back involved after the two-and-a-half year hiatus from the (Irish debt agency)," a trader said.

Irish five-year yields initially rose ahead of books opening on the deal but the strong demand saw the bonds recover early losses to trade flat at a yield of 3.36 per cent.

Given that Ireland's average cost of bond funding was circa 4.7 per cent prior to entering the bailout, to fund at such a level is a remarkable turnaround. It also represents a level lower than that which Ireland is borrowing from the Troika, about 3.5 per cent.

Irrational exuberance. Just because people are anecdotally spending more this Christmas - it really doesn't tell us that we've turned a corner. I reckon that a lot of the previous fear of a total meltdown has abated, albeit irrationally. I see the property sector is hitting the media hard this new year with the erroneous message that things have stabilised. They have not, the rate of decline has merely decreased.

Somebody forgot to CC Fitch on the memo:"Fitch anticipates depressed mortgage lending, continued declines in house prices and pressure on incomes and consumer confidence. The ratings agency said that access to mortgage lending will continue to hamper property markets in a number of countries, including Ireland. "Banks maintain strict underwriting guidelines and are strongly restricted in their willingness and ability to lend, especially in peripheral eurozone countries," it said.

Strikes are coming...About bloody time. Will be a perfect opportunity for the general public to give the PS unions some valuable feedback from the general public who pay for their services.

The state would have to foot the bill if they sought council housing to replace the houses they lost.

Think you might be responding to the wrong post.

And no, not necessarily. Those with jobs but who are over-loaded with debt will lose their homes but they'll also lose the debt and can start again with a nice rental in Newbridge, i.e. something within their means.

And it's not taking into account the likes of Brendan Kelly who are funneling rent directly to themselves (from 20 properties in their case) and refusing to make any repayments at all.Another example of same.

The National Treasury Management Agency has sold €2.5 billion of 2017 bonds in its first syndicated sovereign deal since 2010, having received orders worth more than €7 billion.

The last time Ireland raised funds through a syndicated deal – which differs from an auction in that the price is pre-agreed – was before the EU-IMF bailout programme of December 2010.

Ireland looks likely to become the first sovereign to successfully exit a euro zone bailout programme and is expected to issue approximately €10 billion of debt this year.

"It was an excellent deal for Ireland ... There was a decent spread of demand across geographies. We've seen a few accounts getting back involved after the two-and-a-half year hiatus from the (Irish debt agency)," a trader said.

Irish five-year yields initially rose ahead of books opening on the deal but the strong demand saw the bonds recover early losses to trade flat at a yield of 3.36 per cent.

Given that Ireland's average cost of bond funding was circa 4.7 per cent prior to entering the bailout, to fund at such a level is a remarkable turnaround. It also represents a level lower than that which Ireland is borrowing from the Troika, about 3.5 per cent.

The National Treasury Management Agency has sold €2.5 billion of 2017 bonds in its first syndicated sovereign deal since 2010, having received orders worth more than €7 billion.

The last time Ireland raised funds through a syndicated deal – which differs from an auction in that the price is pre-agreed – was before the EU-IMF bailout programme of December 2010.

Ireland looks likely to become the first sovereign to successfully exit a euro zone bailout programme and is expected to issue approximately €10 billion of debt this year.

"It was an excellent deal for Ireland ... There was a decent spread of demand across geographies. We've seen a few accounts getting back involved after the two-and-a-half year hiatus from the (Irish debt agency)," a trader said.

Irish five-year yields initially rose ahead of books opening on the deal but the strong demand saw the bonds recover early losses to trade flat at a yield of 3.36 per cent.

Given that Ireland's average cost of bond funding was circa 4.7 per cent prior to entering the bailout, to fund at such a level is a remarkable turnaround. It also represents a level lower than that which Ireland is borrowing from the Troika, about 3.5 per cent.

More debt. Great news.

The interest rate is a lot less than that for a lot of the existing stuff. There will be a lot of substitution.

Strikes are coming...About bloody time. Will be a perfect opportunity for the general public to give the PS unions some valuable feedback from the general public who pay for their services.

The state would have to foot the bill if they sought council housing to replace the houses they lost.

Think you might be responding to the wrong post.

And no, not necessarily. Those with jobs but who are over-loaded with debt will lose their homes but they'll also lose the debt and can start again with a nice rental in Newbridge, i.e. something within their means.

And it's not taking into account the likes of Brendan Kelly who are funneling rent directly to themselves (from 20 properties in their case) and refusing to make any repayments at all.Another example of same.

It was the wrong post.

I see your point, alright.

I doubt it'd happen though, at a basic level, evictions are unbelievably unpopular. The banks know that if they evict, they're left with a house they can't sell and bad PR. I can see that being enough to calm them down a bit.

Ireland's reform policies have been widely praised for helping it emerge from the crisis, but the truth is bleaker. If the government fails to get European taxpayers to assume some of the risk of its ailing banking sector, the country could soon require another bailout.Info

In his home country, Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny, 61, has a reputation for being somewhat wooden. But when he meets with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other top German politicians, he's capable of unaccustomed gallantry, as the Irish have noted with surprise. For instance, Kenny has recently proved that he's a master of the diplomatic art known as "air kissing."

This Tuesday, the Irishman will have yet another opportunity to demonstrate his skills. Kenny is traveling to the southern German village of Wildbad Kreuth, where the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) -- the Bavarian sister party to Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) -- is holding its annual gathering. At it, Kenny hopes to schmooze with Horst Seehofer, the CSU's chairman, and Gerda Hasselfeldt, head of its federal parliamentary group. Shortly after breakfast, and before a speech by the chairman of the Bavarian Farmers' Association, Kenny plans to present his country as a model of successful reform policies.

Kenny's charm offensive is not entirely altruistic. For over two years -- and to the delight of the Anglo-Saxon media -- the conservative leader has been trying to get European taxpayers to foot the enormous bill for bailing out Ireland's ailing banking sector. But, taking their cue from the Germans, the Europeans have so far balked at the idea.

Instead, Chancellor Merkel has been quick to praise the way Ireland has implemented economic reforms and used money from European bailout funds over the past few years to emerge from the crisis: Exports have risen, the country has regained its competitiveness, and it has even succeeded in getting private creditors to lend it some money.

Unfortunately, this gleaming façade obscures a rather dismal reality. Although Ireland's economy has stabilized, its debts continue to mount -- despite the fact that the country has been diligently fulfilling all of the demands made by the troika of lenders, which consists of the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB). This year, Ireland's public debt is expected to increase to 122 percent of its annual gross domestic product (GDP) -- in other words, beyond the limit at which the IMF believes long-term debt sustainability can be achieved.

The €68 billion ($90 billion) in bailout funds are only expected to meet the country's financial needs until the end of 2013. But Ireland has a trick up its sleeve that it hopes will allow it to avoid a second official aid package: Kenny would like to transfer one-quarter of Ireland's public debt -- the amount that was amassed solely from bailing out the country's banks -- to the EU. "By June, following the decision of the European Council, we expect agreement on the modalities of reducing the burden that the Irish taxpayer took on from the recapitalization of the going-concern banks," Kenny reportedly said shortly before Christmas.

Spreading the Pain

On Jan. 1, Ireland assumed the presidency of the European Council, which rotates every six months. During this period, Kenny is expected to forge important compromises among the EU's 27 member states. But, more importantly, he intends to use his position to highlight Irish concerns.

Ireland's demands are very precise -- and could be costly for the Germans. At stake are the €31 billion that the country received from the system of European central banks to save two crisis-ridden Irish financial institutions in 2010. The country is expected to pay this money back in installments over the next 10 years.

Already last year, the Irish pushed long and hard until they were allowed to pay back the first installment with the help of a new loan. But that was not a long-term solution. Starting this year, the state will explicitly be liable for the debts of Ireland's nationalized banks. This has prompted the Irish to look for a more creative solution this year. "We would like the payback period for the debts to be extended and the interest rates to be cut to a reasonable level," European Affairs Minister Lucinda Creighton told SPIEGEL.

This notion has met with resistance from the ECB, however. ECB President Mario Draghi regularly snubbed Kenny when he broached the topic at the numerous Brussels summits last year. The ECB wants to avoid any more accusations of directly financing ailing euro-zone member states. For Draghi, the simplest solution would be for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the euro zone's €700 billion permanent backstop fund, to step into the breach and take over the debt.

Kenny would ideally like to use the ESM as a way of getting European taxpayers to shoulder the risks associated with all the debts of the Irish banking sector. He intends to use the six months of his European presidency to push through a banking union that would also make the bailout fund responsible for dealing with toxic assets in the European banking system left over from the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

But to achieve this, Kenny will need the support of Chancellor Merkel and Germany's parliament, the Bundestag. If he manages to push through his agenda, Europe's taxpayers will have to absorb a significant portion of the risks of Ireland's banking sector. If the Germans refuse, it will become more likely that Ireland will have to be bailed out a second time this autumn.

It looks as if Kenny's newfound talent still has to be put to the test.

Strikes are coming...About bloody time. Will be a perfect opportunity for the general public to give the PS unions some valuable feedback from the general public who pay for their services.

The state would have to foot the bill if they sought council housing to replace the houses they lost.

Think you might be responding to the wrong post.

And no, not necessarily. Those with jobs but who are over-loaded with debt will lose their homes but they'll also lose the debt and can start again with a nice rental in Newbridge, i.e. something within their means.

And it's not taking into account the likes of Brendan Kelly who are funneling rent directly to themselves (from 20 properties in their case) and refusing to make any repayments at all.Another example of same.

It was the wrong post.

I see your point, alright.

I doubt it'd happen though, at a basic level, evictions are unbelievably unpopular. The banks know that if they evict, they're left with a house they can't sell and bad PR. I can see that being enough to calm them down a bit.

If they are cheap enough they'll sell in a flash. Not sure that they'd sell them cheap though.

Strikes are coming...About bloody time. Will be a perfect opportunity for the general public to give the PS unions some valuable feedback from the general public who pay for their services.

The state would have to foot the bill if they sought council housing to replace the houses they lost.

Think you might be responding to the wrong post.

And no, not necessarily. Those with jobs but who are over-loaded with debt will lose their homes but they'll also lose the debt and can start again with a nice rental in Newbridge, i.e. something within their means.

And it's not taking into account the likes of Brendan Kelly who are funneling rent directly to themselves (from 20 properties in their case) and refusing to make any repayments at all.Another example of same.

It was the wrong post.

I see your point, alright.

I doubt it'd happen though, at a basic level, evictions are unbelievably unpopular. The banks know that if they evict, they're left with a house they can't sell and bad PR. I can see that being enough to calm them down a bit.

If they are cheap enough they'll sell in a flash. Not sure that they'd sell them cheap though.

Why wouldn't they? They have balance sheets to repair and losses to crystalise.I read that Clancy Quay has been repo'd and this one is a biggie. BoSI want it off their books asap. Planning for 700+ apartments granted originally. 420 built. They sold 60, leaving 360 needing to be dumped. There's 2,432 ads for Dublin city lettings on Daft.ie tonight. 15% of that current total for the entire city is going to come on stream from that one complex!

They have entire vacant blocks (4/5 I think) so they'll be able to sell those to a REIT who'll achieve far better economies of scale when letting than flippers but that's still the D8 rental market flooded. Whatever doesn't get picked up be a REIT will be flogged by Allsop. Amateur landlords in the area could be in for a bloodbath.

This could spark a race to the bottom if the non-NAMA banks holding all the other empty complexes follow suit.What's the betting that NAMA is the one left without a pair of trousers by the end?