Not only is it within the margin of error, it's within the margin of Democrat voter fraud. As a general rule, the average Republican has to beat the average Democrat by 5% to avoid losing due to "discoveries" of "lost" votes.

If you read the Wisconsin prog blogs you will find that they want Kathleen Vinehout and don't think much of Burke.

If the state party can't sideline Vinehout, then there will be a primary where Burke will have to define herself and spend some money. The last thing Mary Burke wants is to have define her positions on issues.

Burke should win that primary and all the progs will vote for her, but they won't do the groundwork her campaign will need.