As predicted here and elsewhere, the post-convention bounces of both candidates receded back to pretty much where they were going into the conventions. Due in part to the Republican convention going first, and Donald’s seemingly self-destruction behaviors, his bounce was shorter lived and smaller than Hillary’s. The latter’s larger-than-expected convention bounce pretty much disappeared under a barrage of new attacks about her emails and, this past weekend, under the glare of a newsworthy intrepid cell-phone video, the world saw Hillary alarmingly collapse trying to get into her limousine after suddenly leaving an outdoor service honoring victims of the 9-11 tragedy. Hillary’s doctor released a statement blaming the incident on dehydration, while dropping the bombshell that she had been diagnosed the previous Friday with pneumonia. The fact that Clinton appeared an hour and a half later waving to admirers, posing for a picture with a young child, and looking fine and hydrated, was lost to the mass media. CNN kept, and continues to keep, showing the video of her apparent faint–far...

The decades long attacks on Hillary Clinton, from Whitewater, back in the nineties, to Benghazi now, have succeeded in raising doubts among voters about her trustworthiness. Nevertheless, she still leads Donald Trump by a healthy 7 or so points in most national polls. One interesting phenomenon polls also reveal, is that former Republican Mayor of New York’s assertion that being from New York he “knows a con when he sees one”–and that Donald Trump “is a con,” is bore out by polls of New York voters. Keep in mind that New York’s voters not only know Trump better than anyone else, but they also know Clinton best, having had her as their US. Senator for two terms. So whom do New Yorkers favor in the race for president? Even including the pre-conventions Quinnipiac Poll, the RCPPoll of Polls for New York has her leading by 17 points. A new Siena poll shows that Hillary Clinton has an overwhelming 25 points lead over Donald Trump. And, that lead is...

The first polls following FBI Director Comey’s decision are in. On Tuesday, July 6, FBI Director James Comey announced his long awaited conclusion to the email controversy surrounding Hillary Clinton. He announced that he would recommend to the Justice Department that Clinton should not be indicted, not even even for lesser misdemeanor charges. In explaining his position, Comey acknowledged “extremely careless” behaviors by then Secretary of State Clinton, in her use of a home server for State Department business emails, some of which contained classified information, and a some that were classified at the time she sent or received the emails. My immediate reaction was that Comey’s statement gave some material that would serve as fodder for both sides in this extremely ugly presidential race. Hillary’s supporters would, with a big sigh of relief, focus on the bottom line of Comey’s statement, i.e., no charges will be filed against Clinton. Trump backers would jump on the “careless” part of Comey’s comments, and the finding that, indeed, Hillary did send or receive...

Here’s how Hillary Clinton can successfully enlist Bernie Sanders’ enthusiastic endorsement and hope that this will bring over to the Clinton side in the general election, as many of his supporters as possible. If she does so, Hillary will get a bump up in her polls, much as Trump did upon the withdrawal of Cruz and Kasich. Actually, just the fact of Bernie saying he wants to help HC defeat Trump in November gave Clinton about a 6 percent jump in the polls, widening her lead over Trump from 2 to about 8 percentage points. This effect became obfuscated by the shootings in Florida, and the claims of the shooter connecting his action to ISIS. In times of crisis. Trump’s “tough guy” image, sways some voters. Recall that polls had given Trump higher numbers than Clinton in being “best able to deal with terrorism.” There certainly is a gender bias on this issue with some voters. How much it affects voter choice in times of crises isn’t certain. Nonetheless, Trump’s...

Hillary Clinton won California big, by 12 percentage points, in what figures to have ended whatever slim chance Bernie Sanders had in the Democratic race. This race was assumed by many to be much closer based upon late polls that had her leading Sanders by a shrinking 2 percent. How wrong they were. Why? In all fairness, an outlier poll, by the LA Times/USC, had Clinton winning by 10 percent. And the reason they called it more accurately is that they ultimately relied on their model of the “likely voter” rather than their sample of eligible voters. By the way, when the “eligible voters” sample was used in their poll, it yielded results similar to the other polls showing the race a virtual dead-heat. So the more refined “likely voter” sample generated much more accurate results. A little background will help in understanding why different samples resulted in such wildly varying results, and why polling techniques that worked in several prior primaries weren’t appropriate for the California race. You will...