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It is only tuesday 2day – we have to wait patiently looking towards the sky for this headline to work – and we pray and hope it comes true. This monsoon breaks are giving us endless sleepless nights !!!!

At one point v expected the str to dip down for the system to move west towards tn.. now it has dipped down more than wat v expected but unfortunately ther is no support for the system to build.. conditions r turning better as southern hemisphere system is moving away.Let’s see how the current circulation unfolds as tis circulation is likely revive the monsoon after a break. one thing to say regarding str, If str (sub tropical ridge)continues to be in such lower latitude our nem may end early n erratically as it pushes the equatorial trough down so the str has to be move up for the monsoon to get extended till late December. Tis is just a conditions not a panic button by anyways.. btw initial December forecast from cfs shows a wild December with active systems crashing tn..

Its a close game now.
1.MJO is going to rev up the Indian Ocean between 27th Nov and 10th Dec
2.IOD is slowly going down from a positive phase to neutral.This can also get into a negative phase by early Dec

The above 2 parameters generally favour systems to get formed.
But SOI is equally important to maintain the system strength.Currently its not looking Good.But if we can get SOI between -5 and 0,then we are in for an eventful first fortnight in Dec.

expecting no rains till sat.with current scenario for chennai.but could see moderate to heavy rains from kayn to chidbrm and south interior tn,from today late night and slowly increasing till Friday or extended..

Chennai has no chance of rain until hpa area move away..,, it’s 1016-1019 range hpA not good for coastal areas in peak monsoon period…. What is highest range hpa which ever recorded in chennai..??? Experts

The Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development in recent weeks. Above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed further in the past fortnight, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been in excess of El Niño thresholds for the past three months. Climate models suggest current conditions will either persist or strengthen. These factors mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status has been upgraded from WATCH to ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring.

Not all indicators have shifted towards El Niño. Tropical cloudiness near the Date Line and trade wind strength are close to average, suggesting the atmosphere is still not firmly linked with the warmer ocean below. However, trade winds have weakened several times over the past few months and SOI values have remained generally negative, suggesting at least some atmospheric response to the underlying ocean conditions.

International climate models expect the warm tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures to persist, with most models predicting values near or beyond El Niño thresholds for the next two to three months. Regardless of whether El Niño fully develops, warmer-than-average tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, combined with cooler waters currently to the north of Australia, increase the chance of some El Niño-like impacts.

Tropical convection this past week has been below average over much of South-East Asia and slightly elevated over parts of the southwest Indian Ocean. Severe tropical storm Adjali, which developed near Diego Garcia in the southwest Indian Ocean, has become the first named storm for the season in the Indian Ocean, south of the equator. Tropical storm Adjali is predicted to move south then southwest, slightly intensifying over the coming day before weakening as it moves over cooler waters.

This past week, a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal strengthened over Africa before weakening. Hence, it is possible the recent MJO activity contributed to the development of tropical storm Adjali and the recent supressed conditions over tropical parts of South–East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean.

Climate models indicate the MJO will move east over the Indian Ocean this week, however, there are a range of predictions of its likely strength. Some models suggest a clear signal, while others suggest the signal will be weak or indiscernible and unlikely to influence tropical weather. When the MJO is active over the Indian Ocean, it typically enhances convection over the Indian Ocean, while suppressing convection over tropical parts of South–East Asia, northern Australia and the western Pacific Ocean.

If the MJO continues to move east and remains active, there is a chance it will enhance tropical convection in the Australian region from the end of November or start of December. However, outlooks beyond a fortnight should be treated with considerable caution, as there is significant uncertainty surrounding the predicted strength and speed of movement of this current MJO signal.

The Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development. International climate models expect this situation to persist, with most models predicting values near El Niño thresholds for the next two to three months. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +0.9 °C and the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index value to 16 November is −10.9.

Regardless of whether or not El Niño fully develops, some El Niño-like impacts remain likely. For northern Australia, this means an increased likelihood of drier than usual conditions over the coming months, including an increased chance of the monsoon commencing later than usual.

Experts, a quick doubt regarding earthquakes , Tsunamis and it’s impact on the Cyclones formed in ocean. Will the Tsunami wave influence the direction of cyclones formed along their way?? does it get distorted or so??

The heat given out from Earthquake will heat the ocean which in turn may raise SST and give more THCP. This may act as additional trigger for Cyclone. However for this it has to be a shallow earthquake and distributed over an area with less intensity rather deep intense one!

Latest GFS is not so encouraging for Chennai. With South chennai receiving
just litle rain. hope that changes. But C TN and S TN are goin for a treat.
The HPA seems to weaken a bit as per WINDS @ 5:00. The dry air situationis improved, however we fiind some pockets of dry in the bay which may prove detrimental for chennai rain.
Beyond 25th , things seems to favour chennai a bit. Lets see how nature unwinds on 21st and thereafter.things should get clear by tommorow.

Not sure if this has been shared, sharing it for the benefit of fellow bloggers.

The final phase of installing the state-of-the-art radar at karikal, which will help in enhanced weather forecasting, is nearing completion. The process would be completed by December. The radar will be able to predict weather in 150 km, almost accurately, benefiting Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur and Pudukottai, among other districts.

The current mass clouds over South TN will weaken by tomorrow..the next wave is behind that and it gather the clouds from south bay & reaches Central TN by friday..we may get isolated showers from friday and the one near gulf..will reach us by 26th..( this one to be watched..it may intensify to a dep)..