David Montgomery: Matt Nagy’s Next Kareem Hunt?

Despite entering the 2019 NFL Draft short on picks, the Bears traded up to select Iowa State RB David Montgomery. Though we like Mike Davis more than most, Montgomery is a tackle-breaking machine on whole other level. As a runner with strong patience and vision for the cutback lane, Montgomery is an ideal fit inside Matt Nagy’s inside-zone running game. More importantly, Montgomery is a plus pass-catcher and protector, a necessary skill in a Nagy attack that hinges upon unpredictability and screens. Though this “Ground Pie’s” distribution remains unclear, Montgomery brings (by far) the most “featured back” upside to the table.

Just two seasons ago, Nagy selected Kareem Hunt, who ultimately led the league in rushing and was a dominant fantasy force. Conveniently, Montgomery is most often compared to Hunt, and is the picture of how Nagy described his “ideal” back:

“When you’re dealing with running backs for us, in this offense, you want to be able to have a guy that has really good vision that can make guys miss… And at the same time, there’s that balance of being a hybrid, being able to make things happen in the pass game too, but yet to where you’re not one-dimensional.”

Last year, “one dimensional” defined the Bears run game with Jordan Howard. The team ran 55% of the time when Howard was on the field last season (second most), yet only 37% with Tarik Cohen in (4th lowest). Montgomery’s versatility will allow far more creativity and unpredictability. Plus, with his tackle-breaking toughness and elite balance, Montgomery is a goalline monster. As such, he offers three-down upside within a Top-10 overall offense, making Montgomery an intriguing Fantasy RB2.

Bottom Line: Pass-catching specialist, who? Christian McCaffrey returned to his college workhorse roots under new OC Norv Turner, and quickly put up Fantasy MVP-worthy numbers. He continued to flash his otherworldly receiving abilities, hauling in an NFL record 106 catches for 875 yards and 6 TDs. Yet where the usage really rose was the carries, as McCaffrey nearly doubled his 2017 total for 215 carries, 1080 yards, and 7 scores. These 321 total touches ranked third behind only Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley, and this newfound volume created the ultimate ceiling / floor combination. In the process, McCaffrey flashed both the elusiveness, breakaway ability, and most shockingly underrated power to redefine the workhorse model.

​New OC Norv Turner deserves immense credit for this outburst. His previous work with LaDanian Tomlinson proved he wasn't afraid to ride a smaller-back, as he's able to scheme his guys in space and in creative outside gaps versus just blasting them up the gut... but even still, never before had an NFL back played nearly 97% of the team's snaps. Yes, this number inevitably will fall in 2019, but McCaffrey should still hover around 85-90%, especially with Turner returning. Expect a similar buffet of weekly volume with the upside for even more efficiency should the Panthers beef up their line while their explosive young wideouts take a next step forward.

Ceiling Projection: 320 touches (100 rec.), 2,000 Tot. Yds, 13 TDs

Floor Projection*: 270 touches (70 rec.), 1600 Tot. Yds, 7 TDs

Actual Projection: 310 touches (90 rec), 1900 Tot. Yds, 12 TDs

*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games