Sunday Extra: House votes -- Late-night negotiations over executive order on abortion could bring on hard-liner Stupak -- Count remains short, but speaker only needs a couple of retirees and Blue Dogs

It’s Historic Vote Sunday. "And there ain't nothing short of dying half as lonesome as the sound of a sleepin' city sidewalk Sunday mornin' pulsing down.” (h/t: Jon Allen)

THE ATMOSPHERE: The difference between today and November’s vote is stark. On the night before the House vote last fall, the Speaker's office was a beehive of activity. Last night, the speaker was gone by 9 p.m. and most of her staff seemed to filter out within the hour. And the Capitol itself was surprisingly quiet. Even most reporters had gone home.

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THE STAKES: Since the House is voting to approve the Senate bill, this is one of the single biggest votes the House has taken on a piece of domestic legislation in a generation. And while the Senate still holds plenty of drama, today’s vote will be the culmination of the yearlong health care reform saga.

ABORTION: Anti-abortion Democrats met with White House officials last night on how to word an executive order by Obama that will satisfy their concerns. Leadership needs to peel off some of those lawmakers to get to 216.

THE VOTES: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is close to getting 216, but it looks like she still needs to get the support of the three retiring Democrats. Our POLITICO whip count shows that she has 210 votes, according to Democratic insiders' feel for how some of the remaining undecideds will swing. If she's going to get health care passed, she'll first need to get the support of several undecided members who voted for last November's bill. --Josh Kraushaar

PULSE POWER RANKINGS: Kraushaar presents the last installment of our guide to Democratic momentum. We put together two lists, ranking the likelihood of members flipping their votes, with No. 1 being the most likely. If members like Kaptur and Dahlkemper come out against the bill, Pelosi will have to try to bring members like Kissell and Tanner on board – no easy task. Bolded lawmakers have committed to their position:

RACE TO 216: POLITICO’s Jonathan Allen and Patrick O’Connor: “Democratic leaders are still locking down the final votes needed to pass the centerpiece of their domestic agenda – a historic rewrite of the nation's health care laws that would expand health insurance access to nearly every American. They hope to secure the votes of a trio of veteran Blue Dogs – Rep. Loretta Sanchez of California, and retiring Reps. Marion Berry (Ark.) and John Tanner (Tenn.) – as well as a handful of anti-abortion Democrats who could break from hard-liner Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) to back the bill. A round of late-night negotiations held the promise of further cracking Stupak's coalition with a proposed executive order that would reinforce the bill's ban on federal subsidies for the purchase of insurance plans that cover abortion.”

SANCHEZ AWOL? – Roll Call’s Tory Newmyer: “As their whip efforts narrow to just a handful of Members, House Democratic leaders are facing an unlikely problem vote: Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.). Sanchez was nowhere to be found on Saturday — she was in Florida on a fundraising jaunt, two Democratic sources said — and while leaders expected her to return for the Sunday vote on final passage, they weren’t assured. What’s more, leaders now list the Orange County Democrat as a ‘no’ vote. Sanchez’s office did not return a request for comment Saturday evening. She cast her last vote shortly after 6 p.m. Friday and missed all seven recorded votes on Saturday, a review of the record shows.”

A SENIOR SANCHEZ STAFFER tells Pulse that she is on family business and “will get back soon.” No word on whether “soon” means before today’s vote. --Kraushaar

THE FINAL SELL: NYT’s David Herszenhorn and Robert Pear: “President Obama and House Democratic leaders on Saturday closed in on the votes needed to pass landmark health care legislation, with the outcome hinging on their efforts to placate a handful of lawmakers who wanted the bill to include tighter limits on insurance coverage for abortions. Mr. Obama, in an emotional address at the Capitol, exhorted rank-and-file House Democrats to approve the bill, telling them they were on the edge of making history with a decisive vote scheduled for Sunday. ‘Every once in a while a moment comes where you have a chance to vindicate all those best hopes that you had about yourself, about this country,’ he said. ‘This is one of those moments.’”

THE BACKSTORY – POLITICO’s Carrie Budoff Brown and Glenn Thrush: “In the jittery days following Scott Brown’s Senate victory, Nancy Pelosi was eager to resurrect comprehensive health reform. But first, she had to get past longtime ally Rahm Emanuel, who was counseling President Barack Obama to consider a smaller, piecemeal approach. During a mid-February conference call with top House Democrats, Pelosi made it clear she would accept nothing short of a big-bang health care push – dismissing the White House chief of staff as an ‘incrementalist.’ Pelosi even coined a term to describe Emanuel’s scaled-down approach: ‘Kiddie Care,’ according to a person privy to the call.”

THE UGLY – WaPo’s Paul Kane reports: “Members of the Congressional Black Caucus said that racial epithets were hurled at them Saturday by angry protesters who had gathered at the Capitol to protest health-care legislation, and one congressman said he was spit upon. The most high-profile openly gay congressman, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), was heckled with anti-gay chants.”

THE BIG QUESTION – WaPo’s Dan Balz: “As the final round of the battle over health-care reform begins Sunday, President Obama and the Democrats are in reach of a historic legislative achievement that has eluded presidents dating back a century. The question is at what cost. … The issue now is whether final passage of the legislation -- Senate leaders say they will take up the reconciliation bill this week -- will cause more harm or begin a turnaround in the Democrats' fortunes heading toward the November midterm elections.”

PELOSI’S MOMENT – WSJ’s Neil King Jr. and Greg Hitt: “Conservatives revile her. Factions within her own party chafe at the compromises she has forced them to accept. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, the Democratic lightning rod, has pushed through controversial legislation before and has done more than most to keep her party's health-care hopes alive. Her mastery of the quirks of her own caucus and her blend of arm-twisting and flattery could prove decisive in whether the mammoth bill becomes a reality this weekend. Victory would likely cement her position as one of the more dominant House speakers in modern times. Failure could crush the party.” Subscription

"THE KAISER GEYSER" – POLITICO’s Frates: “A provision in the reconciliation bill that gives non-profit HMOs a 50 percent break on an insurance industry fee has a conservative health policy expert asking whether it was included to benefit the biggest insurer in Speaker Nancy Pelosi's district. Kaiser Permanente, the nation's largest HMO, controls 34 percent of the San Francisco market and the discounted surcharge would give the Oakland-based company a leg up on some of its competition. ‘This is certainly a company that’s in Pelosi’s backyard and is getting special treatment in this bill and you just have to ask, 'Why is that?’ said Grace-Marie Turner, president of the Galen Institute, a market-based health policy think tank. It’s because the Senate bill penalized non-profit HMOs, a problem the reconciliation bill fixes, said Pelosi spokesman Nadeam Elshami.

‘This is sound policy, which was included in the president's proposal and negotiated between the House, Senate and White House, that puts the patients' interests first,’ he said. ‘Specifically, the insurance fee provision now includes limited exemptions for plans that serve vulnerable populations, provide critical community services and function primarily as non-profits.’”

Authors:

About The Author

Patrick O'Connor barely knew the difference between the House and Senate when he moved to Washington in the fall of 2001 for a job with ESPN. Through providence (in the form of luck, tutelage and his own muddled judgment) he now understands why members spend so much time on the floor speaking to an empty chamber (It's all about C-SPAN, local news and comments in the Congressional Record - just ask Bob Ney). In his two and a half years covering Congress, he has spent a surprising amount of time reading court filings - and knows more convicted felons than he ever thought he would (again, see the affable Mr. Ney) - but that only adds to the fun.

In his previous jobs, he has learned how to drive a backhoe, shuck an oyster and read the daily racing form (although he still lacks the skill to place an informed bet), and he remains thankful for each of his previous posts. He (barely) graduated from Northwestern in 1999 and (miraculously) earned a master's from Columbia in 2004. A Seattle native, he is a bandwagon Bears fan (most of his family lives in Chicago), and he is trying to adopt an affinity for either the Wizards or the Nationals in order to bond with his adopted home. That said, he remains vehemently opposed to the Redskins and their nauseating over-coverage in the DC metro region. In his free time, he reads, spends time at Stetson's (a bar) and walks his girlfriend's dog, Baxter.

About The Author

Chris Frates began covering politics before he was old enough to vote. Since his early days covering town council meetings run by three guys behind a folding table, Frates has been fortunate enough to cover government on every level.

An original Politico, Frates covers the intersection of money, politics and policy inhabited by Washington’s lobbyists and writes about national politics. During the health care reform debate, Frates wrote for the paper and was the lead writer of Live Pulse, the website’s health care reform blog. Frates also founded and wrote Politico Pulse, the popular, daily health reform e-mail briefing that quickly became Washington’s must-read crib sheet.

Before coming to Washington, Frates spent more than four years at The Denver Post where he wrote about state politics. Frates covered the 2004 Democratic takeover of the Colorado statehouse, a forerunner of the political tsunami that would hit Congress two years later, and the 2006 governor’s race.

His work has appeared in The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, The Dallas Morning News and dozens of other publications. Frates has covered three statehouses and numerous campaigns.

His political analysis has been featured on the CBS Evening News, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, WTOP and many other national and local television and radio programs.

Of all the important people he has interviewed, Frates still counts Mister Rogers among his favorites.