258
FXUS64 KMAF 311938
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area in southwest Mexico will move
east tonight toward the Big Bend and weaken as another trough
moves onshore on the west Coast. This trough will produce a slight
chance of thunderstorms overnight across mainly west Texas. Not
expecting much if any severe weather given the extensive cloud
shield with a weakening upper system approaching after peak
heating with weak dryline/convergence and marginal shear.
The upper level trough will quickly move east and be replaced by
zonal flow through the weekend. A surface lee low/trough will
reform in this flow with low level thermal ridging and downslope
flow producing much above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday. In addition breezy to windy conditions will develop
across southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos and the
northern and central Permian Basin by Thursday afternoon as winds
increase through the column. High winds are not out of the
question in the Guadalupe Mountains and later shifts will need
to monitor for a high wind watch for Thursday in that area.
An upper level trough moving across the northern states is
forecast to drop a cold front through the region Friday
with temperatures dropping back to below normal by
Saturday.
West to southwest flow aloft will continue next Sunday through
next Tuesday with much above normal temperatures quickly
developing again. A dryline will develop and push east each day
from the eastern slopes of the mountains in the morning, to the
central or eastern Permian Basin by late afternoon. Late afternoon
and or early evening isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out
east of the dryline but confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 56 85 55 90 / 20 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 61 87 60 93 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 55 89 52 92 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 58 90 61 96 / 20 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 60 89 61 92 / 20 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 50 78 53 82 / 20 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 53 84 51 83 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 43 79 43 85 / 20 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 56 87 55 91 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 57 87 58 91 / 20 0 0 0
WINK TX 55 89 54 93 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper-lvl trough will make landfall on the PacNW coast Wednesday
afternoon, and dive to the 4 Corners area by late Thursday
afternoon. Abundant daytime heating over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico will result in unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures
climbing to the 80s and low 90s, yielding minimum RH`s of 5-10
percent. Forecast soundings mix to above 700mb, where 25-35 mph WSW
flow is forecast to round the base of the upper trough. This
may result in critical fire weather conditions for much of the day
Thursday, as well as Thursday evening. Thus, we`ll issue a Fire Wx
Watch for SE NM and adjacent areas. Fire Danger is currently only
moderate is some of the areas in the watch, but this is expected to
change w/continued heating/drying over the next 36-48 hours.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...
Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
&&
$$
44/12
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