Census: U.S. citizens, not immigrants, lead Texas growth

Other states fueling most Texas growthFellow citizens move here seeking jobs at same time immigration from outside U.S. falls

By Mike Snyder |
December 23, 2008

More people are moving to Texas from other states than from other countries as the state's relatively strong employment base attracts families struggling with foreclosures and layoffs elsewhere, the Census Bureau reported Monday.

Between July 2007 and July 1, 2008, nearly 141,000 people moved to Texas from other states, compared with about 92,000 international migrants, the bureau said.

The data provide a fresh indicator of how longstanding immigration patterns into Texas are changing.

In the early years of this decade, international migration into Texas was two to three times as great as domestic, but the trend reversed starting in 2006.

Much of Texas' international migration historically hails from Mexico and Central America, where immigrants fled poor conditions. But the surging domestic migration into the Lone Star State is now likely to come from economically depressed states such as Michigan, which lost about 46,000 residents between July 2007 and July 1, 2008.

Texas gained 484,000 residents last year, more than any other state. In percentage growth, Texas' 2 percent tied for third with North Carolina and Colorado behind Utah, 2.5 percent, and Arizona, 2.3 percent.

Domestic migration in Texas last year was almost three times what it was in 2005. It peaked in 2006, when an influx of Louisiana residents displaced by Hurricane Katrina contributed to about 220,000 Texas domestic migrants.

Karl Eschbach, the state demographer, said Texas has continued to produce jobs while employment declined in many other states. He said this was the key factor driving the increased domestic migration.

"For the past several years, job growth in the United States means Texas," Eschbach said. "The Texas economy has so much outperformed the rest of the country."

As domestic migration has increased, international movement into Texas has slowed, dropping from nearly 104,000 in July 2006, to about 90,000 the following year. The Mexican government recently reported a 42 percent drop in the number of people trying to enter the United States illegally in the past two years.

U.S. government officials attribute the decline to stronger border enforcement, while immigrant advocates say it mostly reflects the slowing U.S. economy.

Eschbach cautioned that Texas' role as a magnet for job seekers could diminish as the state's economic troubles begin catching up to the nation's.

University of Houston economist Barton Smith said last month that Houston, Texas' most populous city, was losing its "energy cushion" and moving toward an economy that resembled the rest of the country. He predicted that Houston would lose between 11,000 and 37,500 jobs in 2009.

Hot spot for Italian ice?

Without the draw of new jobs, Eschbach said, people tend to move for different reasons, such as a desire to be closer to their families.

"You're going to see slowing rates of movement" into Texas, Eschbach said. "I would predict less domestic migration."

Jack Walsh moved his Italian ice business from Iowa to Texas this year because he thought his prospects were better in a state with a growing economy. Walsh, 47, had sold the desserts at concessions in Iowa and Minnesota since 2002, but he's preparing to open his first brick-and-mortar store in Katy next year.

Walsh said he began selling from concessions at county fairs in Southern states a few years ago. People tend to buy frozen desserts in warm weather, he said, and by moving into warmer areas he thought he could extend his season.

"I found that economies were stronger from Oklahoma City down to Texas, and they were worsening in Northern states," Walsh said. "It kind of flatted out in '06, was worse in '07 and really bad this year."

The Houston area was a good choice, he said, in part because people from economically distressed Northeastern states where Italian ices are popular are moving here to find jobs.

Eschbach said the movement into Texas from other states in recent years doesn't approach the levels of the late 1970s and early '80s, when Texas' annual rate of job growth was 4 to 5 percent. For the past few years, he said, employment growth in Texas has been about 2 percent.

"I don't think we're counter-cyclical (to the national economy) in quite the same way as we were then," he said. "And that's probably for the best."