Outcome Of Russian Vote Has Far-reaching Effects

June 17, 1996|By Ray Moseley, Tribune Staff Writer.

MOSCOW — The late Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev once observed that the trouble with democratic elections is that no one knows who's going to win.

Russia's plunge into exhilarating uncertainty Sunday, which produced a runoff between President Boris Yeltsin and Communist challenger Gennady Zyuganov, is only the latest reminder that Russians are having to learn to live without the numbing predictability of the Soviet past.

The runoff, to be held in July on a date yet to be fixed, may have cut the field of 10 candidates to two, but the momentous choice before the voters is the same.

It is first of all a choice between Yeltsin's lurching, sometimes hesitant approach to reform, and Zyuganov's goal of resurrecting a Communist system stripped--if you can believe what he says--of some of its uglier, more repressive features.

Early returns put Yeltsin ahead and suggest he would have a good chance of winning the runoff.

The implications of the election for the world at large are enormous. As unstable and unpredictable as Russia has been these last four years under Yeltsin, a Yeltsin victory would nevertheless offer a better hope for future stability in a nation still going through a painful transition.

Another term for Yeltsin also would ensure a continuation of his sometimes-fractious but still vital cooperation with the West and would reassure foreign investors who have put money into Russia or are considering it.

A Zyuganov victory would open a wrenching debate in the United States on the question of "Who lost Russia?" and undoubtedly would have an impact on the American presidential campaign.

President Clinton, who has given Yeltsin full backing, could be expected to pay the price, with his Republican challenger Bob Dole able to exploit Clinton's discomfort.

A win for Zyuganov also would bring into question hopes for a more prosperous and stable Russia, since it would undoubtedly put a brake on investment or even cause a flight of capital, and would bring a renewal of tensions with the West on a wide range of issues.

But neither outcome should be viewed in absolute or apocalyptic terms.

Yeltsin is no Jeffersonian democrat, no knight in shining armor fighting a courageous battle for all that is good against the dark forces of reaction. He is a deeply flawed politician who just happens to offer the best hope of preventing a return to communism.

Likewise, Zyuganov is no Josef Stalin, waiting to unleash a new reign of terror against his hapless people and ignite a new Cold War at the head of an Evil Empire. There is much in his record and program to worry about, but his promise to restore the Soviet Union to its old borders is an empty one, beyond anyone's ability at this stage to fulfill. He can bring pressures to bear on Russia's near neighbors, and cause them nervous fits, but not yoke them to the Russian plow.

A crucial fact about Russia is that it is not a closet Western democracy in the process of coming out. It is a half-European, half-Asiatic, highly disparate nation, shaped by a long authoritarian history and tradition that will be difficult to overcome.

Yeltsin may not be as authoritarian and nationalistic as Zyuganov, but he is not untainted in this respect. If his leadership continues, reform still will proceed by fits and starts.

Russia will not head back to a collision course with the West, but there will be differences, and sometimes major ones, for recent history has demonstrated that Western and Russian interests do not always coincide.

Indeed, Yeltsin has reacted to various nationalistic pressures in the past year by distancing himself from the West, and that undoubtedly will continue.

Whether Yeltsin or Zyuganov is the winner, the president's overriding concern will have to be the Russian economy. That could prove a restraining influence on Zyuganov, causing him to think twice about radical steps that could frighten away Western money. But there are no guarantees that he would be guided by such rational considerations. Foreign adventurism can prove a useful distraction for people worried about their living standards.

The most positive thing to be said about a Yeltsin victory is that it would buy time for Russia. Time in which reform can take root and start to produce some dividends. Time in which the mortality tables can begin to have an effect, reducing the weight in the population of an older generation bewildered and sometimes penalized by change and giving increased influence to young people who yearn to belong to a more normal country.