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Investing can be a funny game sometimes. For as much as bulls and bears wrestle over “conviction,” every now and then it requires one to throw confidence out of the window and establish two opposing viewpoints simultaneously. This is where I’ve arrived with beleaguered tech giant Research in Motion, which has finally announced the release date of its long-awaited BB10 operating system. At the risk of sounding insensitive, I wonder why anyone should care.

On the heels of the company’s announcement, not only have there been calls to buy the stock, but glossy-eyed investors with overwhelming hunger for a “feel good story” rush to proclaim that 2013 will be “RIM’s year.” Not so fast. Let’s not forget this is the same company that has become synonymous with chronic self-inflicted wounds, which includes twice delaying BB10. So I worry that any ounce of optimism spent will only become wasted energy, which in a nutshell described its most recent earnings report.

Too Much Needs To Go Right Just To Become Average

RIM investors are known for their “glass-half-full” outlooks – it’s a quality that I admire. But at some point, cheering for a report that arrived “less bad” than expected should get tiresome. For instance, RIM’ revenue dropped by over 30% in the fiscal second-quarter. Yet the stock inched up a bit since it was much better than the 40% decline expected by analysts. Likewise, though the company reported a net loss of 45 cents per share, it was considered impressive since it arrived a penny better than estimates of 46 cents. The standards have been lowered. But how did we get here?

When assessing what RIM has become and how investors have embraced low expectations, it’s hard not to fault the company’s management and what has been a series of misfortune. So is now the time to put all faith in BB10? Does the company have the track record of execution to pull this off? As much as I want to give RIM the benefit of the doubt, I think too much needs to go right just for the company to reach par level.

The Competition Will Allow No Opening

It’s a foregone conclusion that RIM has lost the war in the smartphone and devices market to Apple and Google. What’s more, with Microsoft’s recent release of Windows Phone 8, there are now three operating systems with which BB10 must compete. While it can be argued that since Apple’s IOS is exclusive to Apple devices, therefore RIM’s main competitors might actually be Android and Windows 8. Still, RIM’s market position is little to be desired.

That said, the company does have decent shot at somehow capturing wins (if nothing else) for being a non-Android platform – especially since Apple’s patent suit against Samsung created such a tangled web of Android-related chaos that phone manufactures are now looking to avoid. Nonetheless, the space remains crowded and littered with one legal battle after another as rivals fight to put each other out of business. Let’s not forget there is also Nokia, which just released its Lumia 920 to rave reviews. Can RIM overcome these alternatives?

The good news is that amid all of this mess, RIM has been able to keep its nose clean. But that’s only because it has been irrelevant for almost 3 years. During which it has seen its market share and stock price erode to absurd levels. So the idea that BB10 can all of a sudden change the company’s fortunes is a bit farfetched, if not entirely misguided. On the bright side, that the company has now provided a date (Jan 30) can be considered a small victory after two embarrassing delays.

What’s more, in addition to having significantly more apps that are considered critical to the company’s success, RIM proclaims a faster and smoother phone experience. This is the same company that once places enterprise advantages above the user experience. But investors should not get too excited. This is yet a disappointment in waiting – even though the company has finally adopted touchscreen capabilities. But it’s been 5 years after touch was introduced in the original iPhone.

What has become of RIM is not the “tragedy” that many wish to make it out to be. What’s more, RIM is a testament to the Wall Street reality that market leaders don’t hold that title infinitely. This is despite the significant competitive leverage that the company once enjoyed after having established such a large enterprise position. At one point the company had the entire smartphone market all to itself after extinguishing Palm. But now the company is facing the same amount of pressure to survive. And I think betting your entire future on BB10 is the wrong move.

Bottom Line

Sometimes it pays to listen to that little voice in your head. I have wanted to like RIM since the stock traded in the mid-teens, but I’ve decided to wait. Shares then tanked to the $6 range. Since then it has seen a 20% recovery – largely due to the release of BB10. However, for now, I think a “wait and see” attitude is the right approach – at least until the company’s management can prove that it can get this launch right. In the meantime, the stock is at best a good short term trade. But the long term narrative for RIM has not changed, BB10 will not be enough.