Growth in the monthly trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series remained weak with a 0.3% increase in May 2004. This follows increases of 0.3% in April and March 2004.

The trend estimate increased in all states and territories except the Australian Capital Territory which fell. The largest rates of increase were in Northern Territory (+0.7%) and Western Australia (+0.6%).

The growth in the trend estimate during May 2004 was predominantly driven by an increase in Food retailing (+$36m or 0.6%). Other retailing recorded a partially offsetting fall (-$8m or -0.5%).

Over the three months to May 2004 the trend estimate rose by $156m. Food retailing (+$118m) and Hospitality and services (+$39m) had the largest increases, while Other retailing (-$25m) had the largest fall.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series grew at a moderate rate (+$76m or 0.5%) in May 2004 compared with April 2004. This growth followed a marginal fall in April 2004.

New South Wales (+$45m or 0.8%), Queensland (+$45m or 1.4%) and the Northern Territory (+$2m or 1.1%) recorded strong growth. South Australia, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania also grew, while Victoria (-$18m or -0.5%) and Western Australia (-$3m or -0.2%) recorded falls.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover rose by 0.6% in May 2004 compared with April 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) rose by 1.0%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) were flat.

Australian turnover increased by 5.5% in May 2004 compared with May 2003. Chains and other large retailers increased by 4.4%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 7.1%.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

An appendix 'Contribution of Gambling to Retail Estimates' has been included in this issue with data updated to March quarter 2004.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for May 2004 contained in this publication are:

Data Series

Estimate

Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)

15,524.1

141.6

Change from preceding month ($m)

91.4

38.8

% change from preceding month (%)

0.6

0.3

Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. The aim of the rotation is to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months.

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 30-34.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

SUMMARY COMMENTARY

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

The Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services trend estimate has had weak growth for the last four months. Moderate growth in Food retailing and Hospitality and services and weak growth in most other industries was partially offset by declines in Recreational good and Other retailing.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last 16 months. While most states recorded moderate growth in May 2004, the rate of growth for all states was slower than the previous month.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been weak trend growth for the last five months. In May 2004, South Australia recorded moderate growth while Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia had weak growth. New South Wales recorded a small fall.

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been weak growth in the trend estimate over the last five months. Over the last three months, strong growth in the Northern Territory and moderate growth in Victoria and Queensland have been partially offset by large falls in Western Australia and Tasmania. New South Wales has been flat.

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

The rate of growth in the trend estimate has been declining since June 2003, with flat growth in May 2004. In the last three months, strong growth in Queensland and the Northern Territory and moderate growth in Western Australia have been offset by falls in the other states and the Australian Capital Territory.

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend estimate has been flat or declining in each of the five months to May 2004. In May 2004, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory recorded strong growth, with declines in the other states and the Australian Capital Territory.

OTHER RETAILING

The trend estimate continued to fall at a moderate rate in May 2004. Falls continued in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. Queensland and Western Australia had moderate growth, although the rate of growth in Western Australia has been decreasing over recent months.

TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

There was weak trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) in May 2004. The rate of trend growth has been similar to that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for the last six months.

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been moderate trend growth in each of the six months to May 2004. This follows strong growth in each of the six months to November 2003. In May 2004, strong growth continued in New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania. Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory continued to decline, but these falls were smaller than in preceding months.

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

May 2004 was the sixth consecutive month of weak trend growth. Over this period, Food retailing has had moderate growth and Hospitality and services has had strong growth. Household good, Recreational good and Other retailing have been in decline.

VICTORIA

Trend growth weakened again in May 2004, continuing the slowing of growth evident since November 2003. Growth in Food retailing was moderate after strong growth in the preceding five months. In April and May 2004, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing were in decline.

QUEENSLAND

The rate of trend growth was moderate in May 2004. Over the last three months, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth. Hospitality and services continued the falls of the past four months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The rate of trend growth remained moderate in May 2004. There was continuing strong growth in Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services. Food retailing, Department stores, and Clothing and soft good retailing recorded moderate growth, while Household good retailing and Other retailing fell.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The rate of trend growth remained moderate in May 2004. The falls in Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing were offset by the weak growth in Department stores and moderate growth in all other industries.

TASMANIA

The trend growth has been weak for the last six months. In May 2004, Hospitality and services and Recreational good retailing grew strongly, while Clothing and soft good retailing and Household good retailing were in decline.