“The SCT view of media behavior suggests that the expected positive and negative outcomes of downloading are important initial causes of behavior. The expected outcomes that users experience at a given point in time should govern both their current behavior and their intentions to perform it in the future. That is, if I expect to save money by downloading music, this expectation will logically be reflected in my current level of downloading activity and also frame my intentions to engage in further downloads from this point forward. “

Follow the consequences. And to do that you have to correctly identify both the consequences (positive and negative reinforcers), the schedules of those consequences, and the behaviors (i.e. it’s not “theft” like you read in many accounts of “piracy”).

For those thinking about TPM and video game piracy and DRM in general, you have to dig into the science of behavior -100% of piracy deterrent or 100% of profit increase is there. Forget cryptology and all that. It’s like arguing the format wars in HD video make a difference. They don’t. It’s like thinking your door locks at home keep the bad guys out. Really, do they?

Why I like this paper:

It uses downloading and sharing rather than piracy as the behavior, which is more accurate to the behavior than piracy, which is a negative baggage word.

It uses actual data

It can be verified, refuted, retested

Why I don’t like this paper:

Social Cognitive Theory is a an unnecessary layer on top of the analysis of behavior

It uses a variety of technical terms that don’t add much clarity

It could use more data

It uses surveys instead of raw usuage (which is sometimes a limitation in social studies…)

a) TPM is not directly meant as a DRM facilitator (but it will be overloaded, certainly)

b) Piracy is about behavior not technology. Stopping piracy can only be done by modifying behavior not through technology. Technology can aid in modifying behavior. Unfortunately most DRM schemes provide incentive (reinforce) for cracking media/software, not punishment.

c) never say never (or absolutely) in technology, especially DRM. There are too many variables, and most variables involve non-technical companies, not hackers. Oh, and hackers love the absolutist mantra.

e) Piracy Prevention starts with making something people value and pricing it according to that value. GTAIV didn’t have any profit trouble caused by piracy, nor Halo 3, nor Call of Duty, nor World of Warcraft… is piracy in gaming REALLY keeping developers, publishers and companies from making their profits?

f) Does TPM get in the way of consumer satisfaction? and, I mean real consumer satisfaction – consumers stop buying because it becomes so annoying. That remains to be seen but it’s not like Vista (the biggest implementation of TPM to date) makes a strong case for this.

Can’t stop piracy. You just can’t. As long as people don’t want to pay the current price for media and the risk of punishment or losing access isn’t great enough to dissuade them you’ll always have someone trying to crack the DRM schemes.

Then again, we have to ask why media companies insist on DRM efforts. They must value whatever revenue they think they are losing. Or do they value something else?