By the numbers: First-round quarterbacks dominate NFL landscape

It’s hard to imagine the Dolphins using a first-round draft pick on a quarterback in this year’s NFL Draft, which takes place April 28-30, for several reasons.

* The team is in “win now” mode and needs immediate contributors after two disappointing 7-9 seasons.
* A rookie quarterback likely would need to spend several weeks on the bench growing accustomed to the speed of the pro game.
* The NFL lockout will prevent the quarterback from partaking in crucial offseason minicamps and tutoring sessions with his coaches.
* Veteran Chad Henne already has three years of experience, knows the personnel and is much more polished than any of the rookie candidates.

“Every day this lockout keeps going, it looks better and better for Chad Henne to be the starter next year,” said Joe Rose, the team’s radio analyst and a longtime member of the organization.

Yet it would be hard to blame the Dolphins if they did take a quarterback this time. Henne certainly didn’t prove himself last year, and the fans are starved for a star quarterback to replace Dan Marino.

In today’s NFL, which has skewed more and more to passing offenses, it has become increasingly important to have an elite quarterback. Sure enough, most of the league’s current elite quarterbacks have been found in the first round, and five of the past six Super Bowl winners have had a first-round quarterback under center. Only two other teams have gone as long as the Dolphins without picking a quarterback in the first round.

Let’s break it down, by the numbers:

LAST TIME DRAFTING A FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACK

The Dolphins are one of seven teams who have not drafted a first-round quarterback since 1998. We choose 1998 as the starting point because it was Marino’s second-to-last season, and it would have been more than reasonable for the Dolphins to draft their quarterback of the future that year. And only two teams can equal or match the Dolphins’ streak of 27 consecutive years without taking a quarterback in the first round.

More than half of the league’s starting quarterbacks in 2010 were first-round picks. After the first round, the quarterbacks are distributed fairly evenly between the second through seventh rounds, suggesting that luck of the draw and unique situations play into their success more than anything.

Even though they are no longer starters (or not in the league altogether), here are some other quarterbacks who have been productive in the NFL. Again, the random distribution of the draft rounds suggests nothing more than these players found the right situation at the right time:

Of course, just because you draft a quarterback in the first round doesn’t mean he will become an NFL star. Several players taken in the first two rounds, including a few quarterbacks taken first overall, just didn’t cut it in the NFL, either because of their own skillset or because the team and coach didn’t know how to get the most out of him.

For the purposes of this research, we only considered first- and second-round picks as “busts,” since quarterbacks drafted in the third round or later usually aren’t expected to become franchise quarterbacks. And again, we date back to 1998, Marino’s second-to-last season, when it would have been more than reasonable for the Dolphins to draft their next franchise quarterback.