Premier Alison Redford flat-lining in polls, but Alberta PCs seem to have 'no appetite' to replace her

Political observers in Alberta are not expecting any upsets this weekend when the province’s Progressive Conservatives decide whether they’ll stick with Premier Alison Redford as leader.

This is despite the fact Ms. Redford’s support appears to be flat-lining in the popularity polls and there are murmurs of dissent in the party’s rank and file.

“The PCs and the Wildrose [Party] are in a statistical tie right now. [Ms. Redford’s] approval rating is in the low 40%,” said Janet Brown, a local pollster and political commentator.

It’s always a parlour game predicting these numbers

The long-ruling PC party is holding its annual general meeting and convention in Red Deer Friday and Saturday. Delegates will also get to decide if they want Ms. Redford to stay on as leader. Technically, she has to win 50% plus one vote to keep her job.

“I’m not sure what to expect,” Ms. Brown said. “I think there are a lot of variables at play here. I’m expecting the number to be between 60% and 80% and I’ll be surprised if it’s outside that range.”

Although Ms. Redford has scored several political victories of late, some Tories are still simmering over the latest budget, ethical concerns, relatively poor polling numbers and unenviable party fundraising totals.

But there seems to be no appetite to replace her, Ms. Brown notes.

No other potential leadership contender has officially stuck his or her head above the parapet.

“She’ll get 50 plus one,” said Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary. “I don’t think there’s an appetite in the party for another leadership race.”

Indeed, but a technical pass is a far cry from a ringing endorsement.

Ms. Brown said it’s virtually impossible to predict the outcome because there’s so much jockeying about who can be a voting delegate.

More than 1,300 PC party members have registered to attend the convention, but only about 1,100 can vote. Most of those will be drawn from constituency associations, but they include former MLAs and high-level party members. In other words, only party loyalists cast a ballot in the review.

A disappointing result could put Ms. Redland at risk.

For example, Ralph Klein quit in 2005 after scoring 55% in the leadership review. In 1983, federal PC leader Joe Clark resigned when he scored 67%. Then-premier Ed Stelmach earned a surprising 77%, but stepped down before the next election.

By comparison, opposition leader Danielle Smith won 90% of delegates’ votes at Wildrose’s convention last month.

“It’s always a parlour game predicting these numbers,” said Rod Love, a long-time party member and Mr. Klein’s former chief of staff. “These things are unknowable.”

That said: “The No. 1 issue I hear about every day is the state of the budget. Public finances in Alberta has been and will always be the No. 1 issue among those who consider themselves conservative — whether they’re PC or Wildrose.”

Health care, education and the environment matter, “but in this province, at the end of the day, if the public finances are not in good shape, then people are not happy,” he added.

The convention will be abuzz with such talk, said Kelley Charlebois, executive director of the PC association.

“Anybody who’s been to a political AGM, it’s the hallway conversation [where] those sort of things get talked about and discussed and I think that’s great,” he said.

“The more we talk about it the more we understand — whether it’s specific issues or specific government policy — then the better informed we’ll be to make a decision.”

Ms. Redford can be credited with some successes. She recently hammered out a deal with B.C. Premier Christy Clark on bitumen pipelines. She also claims to have made progress lobbying for the Keystone XL pipeline in Washington.

Another observer says she performed well during the floods that overwhelmed much of southern Alberta in the summer.

“I’ve been saying for months, and going back over the past year, that I think she would do fine in this leadership review. I think she’ll come out of it with a healthy endorsement from the party and that was before the flood — the floods increased her popularity,” said Bruce Cameron, president of pollsters Return on Insight.

Mr. Bratt agrees. “There was a lot more discussion about the leadership race in May and early June. There was clear mobilization going on by the pro and anti-Redford forces and that kind of dissipated away,” he said.

The only real public indication of discontent sprang up just days before the leadership review. An anonymous group calling itself the Make Alberta Right Committee posted a blog imploring Progressive Conservatives to return to the party’s fiscally conservative roots.