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Thursday, October 05, 2006

Will they or wont they?

If there is one thing that has been discovered in the last few elections, it’s that conservative Republicans far out number Democrats. With an ageing population this would make sense since as people get older they now have things to conserve. It’s not a big surprise that the Democrats biggest voting base are those aged 18-30. The only thing that group generally owns is a Che Guevara t-shirt.

In 2000 Karl Rove was the first to argue that the reason President Bush didn’t win with a huge majority is that 4 million conservatives stayed home. These people had been disenfranchised with government during the Clinton years and were making a statement. Rove made convincing these extra 4 million voters his top priority for the next four years so Republicans wouldn’t have to suffer through another close call. Rove was successful and in 2004 President Bush defeated John Kerry with a 2 million-vote landslide. No matter how many kids P Diddy registered to vote, conservatives continued to control the numbers.

If Republicans loose control this November it’s not going to be because more people are becoming Democrats but because conservatives are once again going to stay home. Conservatives take their voting seriously and events like Foley’s resignation is enough to stop them from voting unlike Democrats who were more than happy to look past Jerry Studds actual sexual encounter with a teenage page to reelect him 7 times. Though it might cost Republicans in November you have to respect conservatives for not being willing to compromise on their beliefs just for the sake of voting Republican.

In 2004 Democrats thought the election was all about the war but it wasn’t. The huge turnout and victory by President Bush and Republicans was about the Supreme Court. The conservative base didn’t want a liberal Democrat to pick the next two Supreme Court judges so they turned out in mass. Without that hot button and plenty of Republican disappointment, conservatives are asking themselves why bother. Fortunately for Republicans if they do loose the House and Pelosi takes over the hot button will return, as Democrats will confuse their victory for a green light for a liberal agenda. Conservatives will have a year and half to watch in horror giving conservatives the motivation they need to give Republicans a major victory in 2008 allowing them to keep the White House. Sometimes you need to take one step back to take two steps forward.