Handicapping the Networks

Ahead of upfronts, WSJ’s Brian Steinberg considers the major TV networks’ selling points and challenges, and handicaps how each may do.

Pros: Putting “Grey’s Anatomy” on Thursday night this season has bolstered the network’s allure on one of the most desirable nights for advertisers. ABC is willing to do some deals based in some way on Nielsen’s new commercial-ratings figures. Cons: Media buyers say “Lost” is losing steam, and they are still looking for better comedies from the network. Best bet: Flat to slightly up.

Pros: Still has the most reliable programming lineup among the networks, and the fewest scheduling holes to fill. Cons: Media buyers say CBS has too many dramas with similar themes, like its CSI crime franchise. The network offers “a pretty consistent product,” says John Swift, an executive vice president at Omnicom Group’s PHD North America, a media-buying firm. “However, I think the consensus is some of their hits are starting to show some signs of age.” Best bet: Flat.

Pros: Media buyers say NBC leads the broadcast networks in its attention to digital ideas, and has lots of on-air promos reminding viewers to watch its shows and see extras online. “Heroes” is the breakout hit of the season. Despite its ratings challenges, the Peacock network is putting on some of the most critically acclaimed programs in the last few years, including “30 Rock” and “Friday Night Lights.” Cons: Critically acclaimed shows don’t matter as much when they don’t get good ratings. Media buyers say NBC remains challenged and has a weaker negotiating position. Best bet: Flat to down.

Pros:Network continues to have momentum in second half of the season, owing to “American Idol.” Media buyers note that “House” has also gotten stronger. Fox will air fewer postseason baseball games next fall and can try to launch more shows earlier in the season. Cons: “People are worrying about the amazing longevity of ‘Idol’ and the sustainability of ’24,’ ” says Michael Nathanson, a Bernstein analyst. The network needs a new hit in the fall, says Steve Sternberg, executive vice president of audience analysis at Interpublic Group’s Magna Global. Best bet: Flat to slightly up.

Pros: Reaches the audience advertisers covet: younger viewers. The CW network has been open to trying out new, attention-getting ad formats, such as “content wraps” that last several minutes and look more like entertainment than a traditional commercial. “Gossip Girl,” a show based on a popular series of books, has good buzz. Cons: Ratings for the start-up network’s first season have been below expectations, media buyers say. Best bet: Flat.