Look for Romney to oust Obama today

LeRoy GoldmanThe Shadow Knows

Published: Tuesday, November 6, 2012 at 4:30 a.m.

Last Modified: Monday, November 5, 2012 at 2:37 p.m.

There is no doubt that Barack Obama inherited a nation in desperate trouble. It was not trouble of his making. He was swept into office on a brilliantly run campaign that promised Hope and change. That is exactly what the American people wanted, voted for and expected. Now with perfect hindsight, it's evident that the president did not deliver on his promise.

Facts

Although the Shadow’s whereabouts remain unknown, readers can reach Goldman at tks12no12@gmail.com.

One only needs to look at the enactment of the three bills that indelibly bear the signature of his first term — the stimulus, Obamacare and financial reform. Each of them is deeply flawed, and each was enacted in a way that took the definition of hyper-partisanship to a level never previously seen in Washington. Within months of taking office, hope and change degenerated into a my-way-or-the-highway approach.

More damaging to the president is that the stimulus did not come close to jump-starting the economy and Obamacare polarized the nation. Together they spawned the rise of the tea party. And financial reform does not address the problem of too big to fail for the Wall Street banks.

Finally and unbelievably, the president has not laid out a set of specific proposals going forward that would serve as a compelling basis for his re-election and second term. He appears not to have realized that the divine right of kings doesn't play well in America. Whether such a stupendous blunder arises out of arrogance or incompetence doesn't really matter. What does matter is that Obama's incredible luck, dating all the way back to his election to the Illinois Legislature, is going to run out tonight.

There are 538 electoral votes. It takes 270 to win. Unfortunately, there has never been any doubt with respect to how most states will cast their votes for president. Eighteen states and the District of Columbia are solid blue. That gives the president 237 electoral votes. Twenty-three states are solid red. That gives Mitt Romney 191 electoral votes. There are nine battleground states with 110 electoral votes. They are: Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), New Hampshire (four), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (six), Colorado (nine) and Nevada (six).

That so many states are uncompetitive is a reflection of the polarizing racial and gender divide that has crippled the federal government. The blues are overwhelmingly made up of single or divorced white women, individuals possessing high levels of education and high incomes, African-Americans and Latinos. The reds are overwhelmingly made up of white men, married white women, evangelical Christians and individuals without a college education.

Thus, almost the entire presidential campaign has been waged in the nine battleground states. Among the nine, Ohio is the most significant. Ohio has voted with the winner in every presidential election since 1944, except 1960. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. That makes Ohio the 800-pound gorilla for any Republican seeking the presidency. To win the election, Romney must win Ohio. And win it he will.

Romney will do well enough in the suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland to slightly offset Obama's huge margins in the core of those cities. In addition, Romney will roll up very large numbers in southeastern Ohio where most of the state's evangelical Christians reside and also where coal is and where natural gas soon will be king.

Romney will also win at least five of the remaining battleground states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado. The president will likely win the other three: Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada.

Romney will claim the White House with 279 electoral votes. President Obama will have won 259. The popular vote will be very close: Romney 50.4 percent, Obama 48.7 percent.

But know this: If Romney wins, America will not be out of the woods. A tea party-controlled House and a Democrat-controlled Senate is a proven recipe for catastrophe. Whether President Romney can bring a recalcitrant and rebellious Congress to heel remains to be seen. It will take a level of imagination, boldness of ideas and guts that any of us has yet to see in him. Absent that, the deadlock will continue in Washington no matter who wins.

The U.S. Senate

The Democrats currently control the Senate 53-47. After the votes are counted tonight, their margin will narrow to 51-49.

The GOP, thanks to the tea party, put the Republicans in an unrecoverable position beginning in the 2010 election cycle. Although the Republicans gained six seats in 2010, it also needlessly sacrificed four other seats it could have easily won. In those four races, the Republicans nominated tea party insurgents who were so zany, so bizarre, so extreme that they had no chance to win, and didn't, in Delaware, West Virginia, Colorado and Nevada.

This year, they managed to send three more sacrificial lambs to the slaughter. In Maine, longtime moderate Republican Olympia Snowe became so disheartened with the tea party and the left-wing radicals that she did not seek re-election. She would have been a shoo-in had she run. That seat will turn over. In Missouri, the GOP nominee, Todd Akin, destroyed himself with his comments about rape. In Indiana, GOP nominee Richard Mourdock did the same thing with his comments about God.

Predictions for other marquee matchups include Republicans picking up seats in Nebraska, Wisconsin, Montana and North Dakota. Democrats will survive significant challenges in Connecticut and Virginia.

In this year's upset special, the Shadow predicts Republican Sen. Scott Brown will be re-elected in Massachusetts even though all the polls show him losing to left-wing ideologue Elizabeth Warren.

The Shadow's out on a limb, but Goldman can be reached at tks12no12@gmail.com.

<p>There is no doubt that Barack Obama inherited a nation in desperate trouble. It was not trouble of his making. He was swept into office on a brilliantly run campaign that promised Hope and change. That is exactly what the American people wanted, voted for and expected. Now with perfect hindsight, it's evident that the president did not deliver on his promise.</p><p>One only needs to look at the enactment of the three bills that indelibly bear the signature of his first term — the stimulus, Obamacare and financial reform. Each of them is deeply flawed, and each was enacted in a way that took the definition of hyper-partisanship to a level never previously seen in Washington. Within months of taking office, hope and change degenerated into a my-way-or-the-highway approach.</p><p>More damaging to the president is that the stimulus did not come close to jump-starting the economy and Obamacare polarized the nation. Together they spawned the rise of the tea party. And financial reform does not address the problem of too big to fail for the Wall Street banks.</p><p>Finally and unbelievably, the president has not laid out a set of specific proposals going forward that would serve as a compelling basis for his re-election and second term. He appears not to have realized that the divine right of kings doesn't play well in America. Whether such a stupendous blunder arises out of arrogance or incompetence doesn't really matter. What does matter is that Obama's incredible luck, dating all the way back to his election to the Illinois Legislature, is going to run out tonight.</p><p>There are 538 electoral votes. It takes 270 to win. Unfortunately, there has never been any doubt with respect to how most states will cast their votes for president. Eighteen states and the District of Columbia are solid blue. That gives the president 237 electoral votes. Twenty-three states are solid red. That gives Mitt Romney 191 electoral votes. There are nine battleground states with 110 electoral votes. They are: Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), New Hampshire (four), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (six), Colorado (nine) and Nevada (six). </p><p>That so many states are uncompetitive is a reflection of the polarizing racial and gender divide that has crippled the federal government. The blues are overwhelmingly made up of single or divorced white women, individuals possessing high levels of education and high incomes, African-Americans and Latinos. The reds are overwhelmingly made up of white men, married white women, evangelical Christians and individuals without a college education.</p><p>Thus, almost the entire presidential campaign has been waged in the nine battleground states. Among the nine, Ohio is the most significant. Ohio has voted with the winner in every presidential election since 1944, except 1960. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. That makes Ohio the 800-pound gorilla for any Republican seeking the presidency. To win the election, Romney must win Ohio. And win it he will.</p><p>Romney will do well enough in the suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland to slightly offset Obama's huge margins in the core of those cities. In addition, Romney will roll up very large numbers in southeastern Ohio where most of the state's evangelical Christians reside and also where coal is and where natural gas soon will be king.</p><p>Romney will also win at least five of the remaining battleground states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado. The president will likely win the other three: Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada.</p><p>Romney will claim the White House with 279 electoral votes. President Obama will have won 259. The popular vote will be very close: Romney 50.4 percent, Obama 48.7 percent.</p><p>But know this: If Romney wins, America will not be out of the woods. A tea party-controlled House and a Democrat-controlled Senate is a proven recipe for catastrophe. Whether President Romney can bring a recalcitrant and rebellious Congress to heel remains to be seen. It will take a level of imagination, boldness of ideas and guts that any of us has yet to see in him. Absent that, the deadlock will continue in Washington no matter who wins.</p><p>The U.S. Senate</p><p>The Democrats currently control the Senate 53-47. After the votes are counted tonight, their margin will narrow to 51-49.</p><p>The GOP, thanks to the tea party, put the Republicans in an unrecoverable position beginning in the 2010 election cycle. Although the Republicans gained six seats in 2010, it also needlessly sacrificed four other seats it could have easily won. In those four races, the Republicans nominated tea party insurgents who were so zany, so bizarre, so extreme that they had no chance to win, and didn't, in Delaware, West Virginia, Colorado and Nevada.</p><p>This year, they managed to send three more sacrificial lambs to the slaughter. In Maine, longtime moderate Republican Olympia Snowe became so disheartened with the tea party and the left-wing radicals that she did not seek re-election. She would have been a shoo-in had she run. That seat will turn over. In Missouri, the GOP nominee, Todd Akin, destroyed himself with his comments about rape. In Indiana, GOP nominee Richard Mourdock did the same thing with his comments about God.</p><p>Predictions for other marquee matchups include Republicans picking up seats in Nebraska, Wisconsin, Montana and North Dakota. Democrats will survive significant challenges in Connecticut and Virginia.</p><p>In this year's upset special, the Shadow predicts Republican Sen. Scott Brown will be re-elected in Massachusetts even though all the polls show him losing to left-wing ideologue Elizabeth Warren.</p><p>The Shadow's out on a limb, but Goldman can be reached at tks12no12@gmail.com.</p>