Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Sunday, 18 December 2011

I found this gem of a system for playing the Under / Over 2.5 Goals markets. The only slight problem I see with it is the complete absence of any mention of value, and the assertion that an Under or Over is, on occasion, 'certain'. Other than that, it's quite brilliant. I am seriously thinking of abandoning my strategy of calculating goal expectancies to find an edge in these markets.

My name is Vincent and I want to share my betting strategy with you. I play on over/under 2.5 goals in football matches like this: I take into consideration the last 4 matches of each team involved in the current game (that's 8 matches in total). If a game has ended with an over 2.5 score I give it +0.5 points. If both teams scored in that match I give it another +0.75 points (even if the match ended under 2.5). If the game ended under 2.5 I give it -0.5 points. If one of the teams didn't score in the match (even if it was over 2.5) I give it -0.75 points. In the end I sum up all those points and I get a positive or negative result. To give an example: match results 4:2 2:1 2:2 0:0 2:0 2:1 3:1 3:0 For the above matches my calculation would look like this: +0.5+0.75+0.5+0.75+0.5+0.75-0.5-0.75-0.5-0.75+0.5+0.75+0.5+0.75+0.5-0.75=+3.5 points. That would mean to put a 3.5/10 units bet on over 2.5 goals. The maximum results are +10 and -10 points. That would mean a certain over 2.5, respectively under 2.5 goals match. I usually place a bet only if I get a minimum +/-5 points result. So, for example, if I get a +6 I place a 6/10 units bet on over 2.5 goals.

Well, perhaps not - the Manchester City v Arsenal game this afternoon was highlighted as a value Under bet, with my calculations on this outcome 2.13, and available to back at 2.38. By half-time I had layed off 75% of my risk, and was wishing I'd layed it all off when the game opened up after Manchester City's 53' opening goal. "Goals change games", but the storm was weathered, and in the end it was a good (betting) result.There was just the one XX Draw Selection this weekend, which was AC Ajaccio v Stade Rennais, and frustratingly, this was a winner as late as the 83' (trading at 1.38, from a pre-game 3.85) before ending 1-0. At least there was the small consolation of a win for the Unders at 1.9.I shall update the Tipster Table once all the matches are concluded. Time for some NFL now.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.