Tuesday, 5 May 2015

UK General Election Forecast from ElectionsETC

Two days to go, and it’s a tossup.
Our model now gives David Cameron and Ed Miliband each a 50% chance
of being Prime Minister after the election. Neither has much hope of a
majority: we give the Tories a 9% chance of winning 323+ seats,
and Labour less than a 0.1% chance. That means a 91% chance of another
hung parliament.
The main movement in our polling average since Friday
is a 1-point gain for the Liberal Democrats, to 9%. The Tories retain a
1-point lead over Labour, 34% to 33%, while UKIP are still on 13%.
Our central forecast has the Tories and Lib Dems each doing about 1
point better than the current polling average, and Labour and UKIP each
doing about 1 point worse.
In that scenario, the Tories win 35% of the vote and 289 seats, 34
seats short of a majority but ahead of Labour on 32% and 257. The Lib
Dems get 26 seats with 10% of the vote and UKIP get 3 with 12%.
Meanwhile, the SNP win all bar 6 of Scotland’s 59 seats.
That central forecast would mean the Conservatives could just form a
majority with the Lib Dems and the DUP (for a total of 324 seats).
Because of their willingness to work with either Labour or the
Conservatives, we give the Liberal Democrats a 53% chance of being part
of the majority grouping – slightly higher than either of the two larger
parties – even if we assume they won’t join one involving the SNP.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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