IN the minds of a lot of people, the rainfall we had in the 1950s, 60s and 70s was a benchmark. But we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.

David Jones, head of climate analysis at the BOM, the SMH, October 6, 2008:

A NOTABLE feature of this drought is the long series of failed autumn rains . . . the chances are that we will not see a return to the wet autumns that were once commonplace . . . This drought is now far beyond our historical experience. It is very difficult to make a case that this is just simply a run of bad luck driven by a natural cycle and that a return to more normal rainfall is inevitable, as some would hope.

“Perth is facing the possibility of a catastrophic failure of the city’s water supply,” says Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum and Australia’s most high-profile scientist and ecologist…

Climate change is working against Sydney. “There’s only two years’ water supply in Warragamba Dam,” says Flannery, “ … If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia.”…

“Water is going to be in short supply across the eastern states,” says Flannery… The water restrictions now in force in Sydney are never going to be lifted, except after a run of freak conditions, just as Warragamba Dam is never again going to be full unless there is a freak period of high rainfall unlikely to be sustained.

Whitehouse points out that climate simulations, like those carried out at the Hadley Climate Research Unit, indeed show periods of stagnation lasting up to a decade. In the models they occur about every 80 years. However, none of the simulations up to now have shown a pause of 15 years. Also the models that run on the super-computers of the Hamburg Climate Research Centre also show such plateau phases.