A Yiddish proverb cautions, “Man plans and God laughs.” The real world is a complex and unpredictable place. If you draw a specific timeline for how you expect things to go, there’s little doubt that you’ll be proven wrong.”

Simplicity is a very powerful construct. Henry Thoreau recognized this when he said, “Our life is frittered away by detail . . . simplify, simplify.” Einstein also recognized the power of simplicity, and it was the key to his breakthroughs in physics. He noted that the five ascending levels of intellect were, “Smart, Intelligent, Brilliant, Genius, Simple.” For Einstein, simplicity was simply the highest level of intellect.”

Risk is like complexity. You must reduce it at every turn, knowing more is inevitably headed your way in the future. The more risk you introduce, the better you must be at predicting the future. By eliminating or at least minimizing known sources of risk (like balance sheet debt), you better prepare for an uncertain future and it’s unknown sources of risk.”

In a meeting many years ago, ad agency Chiat/Day’s Lee Clow balled up a piece of paper and threw it at Steve Jobs. Jobs caught it easily, and Clow said, “That’s a good ad.” Then Clow balled up five pieces of paper and threw them. Jobs failed to catch even one. “That’s a bad ad,” Clow said. According to Ken Segall’s book, Insanely Simple, Clow changed Jobs’ mind that day about the complexity of the ad his team was creating for Apple