The average wheat yield reached 2.46 metric tons a hectare
(2.47 acres) as of July 26, down from 3.44 tons a hectare a year
earlier, according to Agriculture Ministry data. Russia, which
was the world’s third-biggest wheat exporter last season, has 16
regions affected by drought this marketing year. The country may
ship 12 million tons and drop to fifth place among exporters of
the grain, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Russia exported 27.2 million tons of grains in the season
that ended June 30, according to ministry data. About 21.3
million tons of wheat were shipped, the USDA estimated.

Russia’s grain supply and demand balance “does not point
to dramatic food price increases,” Tchakarov wrote. The country
“should have some spare capacity to export” because on average
it consumes an estimated 72 million tons, he wrote. The
Agriculture Ministry expects the harvest to be between 80
million and 85 million tons this season.

Food prices may gain domestically, even though the country
has enough grain to meet needs, Sergey Shvetsov, deputy chairman
of Russia’s central bank, told reporters in Moscow today.

“It’s a global market, right?” he said. “The fact that
we have lots of oil doesn’t mean that it’s any cheaper.”