Study: Technology could eliminate cars' need for oil by 2050

Fuel-cell cars would need $200 billion investment

STEVE GELSIMarketWatch

Published Friday, July 18, 2008

NEW YORK -- Hydrogen-powered vehicles could one day make up a majority of automobiles on U.S. roads, but the zero-emission cars would require a hefty investment of about $200 billion for infrastructure and subsidies to support them, a new study released Thursday said.

A fleet of 2 million hydrogen-powered vehicles could be driving on American roads by 2020, with the number increasing to 25 million by 2030, according to the National Research Council.

The government price tag for such a ramp-up would total about $55 billion from 2008 to 2023, when fuel-cell vehicle costs could become competitive with gasoline-powered vehicles.

Private industry would have to invest about $145 billion for research and development, vehicle manufacturing and hydrogen infrastructure.

The study was authored by the Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies, chaired by Michael P. Ramage, who's retired from Exxon Mobil Research Engineering Co.

One hurdle in keeping the price of fuel cell-powered cars down is the rising cost of platinum, used as a key component in the cars.

"The cost of platinum is approximately 57 percent of the fuel-cell stack costs and represents the greatest challenge to further cost reductions," the study said. "Future platinum supply is a critical issue in forward projections of fuel-cell costs."

The study concludes that a portfolio of technologies -- including hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, improved efficiency of gasoline-powered vehicles, hybrids and use of biofuels -- "has the potential to nearly eliminate oil demand from light-duty vehicles by the middle of this century, while reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to less than 20 percent of current levels."