The event featured an amazing collection of high level, nationally renowned climate change experts and local broadcasters. Many of these researchers have spent entire careers studying climate change and effects from different angles.

The seminar presented a wealth of updated data on how climate changes are unfolding globally and in our backyard. It’s almost impossible to capsulize the overwhelming amount of information I absorbed into this space, so I’ll highlight what I see as the most salient points for Updraft. This is by no means a complete summary of current climate science; it’s just what I could absorb in a weekend.

Note: These are not direct quotes from the presenters, but my notes and input from their power point presentations. Hopefully this post adequately credits and respects the content and spirit of the authors, and the sources they used. Click on images to enlarge.

The graphic below is perhaps the biggest stunner from Mark’s presentation.

“Decadal average annual temperature from 16 GCM models runs showing 275 mile northern migration of the 44 degrees F isotherm. Composite of 16 GCMs shows that the 44 degrees F annual isotherm across MN, currently through the Twin Cities Metro Area, will migrate 275 miles north to near International Falls by 2070.”

Source: Dr. Mark Seeley – MPR & University of Minnesota

Again my notes: If this magnitude of warming occurs it will cause dramatic shifts in Minnesota landscapes. If the climate of the Twin Cities essentially shifts to International Falls it will have dramatic impacts on norhtern forests and lakes. BWCA lakes as warm as Lake Minnetonka in summer? Twin Cities like living in Omaha or Kansas City? It’s entirely possible.

***

Peter Snyder, University of Minnesota

“Projections of Upper Midwest Climate Change,”

Multiple lines of evidence suggest Midwest climate is changing.

Minnesota projected warming of 4F to 6F by 2100!

Average winter snowfall may drop by as much as 1 foot by 2100 as more winter precip falls as rain in a warmer winter environment.

Source: Peter Snyder – University of Minnesota

***

Jeff Masters, Weather Underground, Ann Arbor, Mi.

“Climate Change and Severe Storms: Frequency and Severity,”

2012 is nearly on pace with the record number of “billion dollar weather disasters” set in 2011.

Source: Jeff Masters – Weather Underground

The USA has broken virtually every major climate record in the past 7 years.

Hurricane intensity will increase as ocean temps warm.

Source: Jeff Masters – Weather Underground

There will be a devastating Los Angeles hurricane one of these years as warmer ocean waters expand north.

The Mediterranean Sea may be able to support tropical cyclones as waters warm and wind shear decreases.

Excessive precipitation events will increase with increased atmospheric water vapor.

Tornado alley is moving north; Michigan recorded 1st EF3 tornado.

Source: Jeff Masters – Weather Underground

The northward shift in plant hardiness zones is one of the strongest indicators of climate change effects.

Climate Change is solid science. Large scale multi decadal to century trends established.

The “large scale” science on climate change was largely completed in 2007.

“Local scale” science is next. What happens in my region in the next 15-30 years?

Mitigation can be a large scale issue. Adapatiaiton is a local issue.

45% of all emitted CO2 remains in atmosphere

30% is absorbed by plants and soils

25% is absorbed by oceans

When CO2 “sinks” in oceans, plants and soils reach capacity to absorb CO2, rate of atmospheric warming will increase as higher rates of CO2 are injected into atmosphere.

Climate models today have better resolution than the numerical weather forecast models of the 1980s.

The next 50 years will be very different from the last 50 years.

The 3 different colored curves for years 2000-2100 represent different global surface air temperature responses to 3 different emissions scenarios. The different colors are related to the “category 1” uncertainties – the choices made by people.

The shaded areas kind of/partly represent uncertainties associated with the “category 2” uncertainties. Given the same emissions scenario, different climate models will produce somewhat different responses. In some qualitative sense, this can be taken as illustrating some of the modeling uncertainties.

Source: Keith Dixon, NOAA GFDL

***

John Abraham, University of St. Thomas, Saint Paul, Mn.

“Understanding Climate Change’s Common Top 10 ‘Myths’,”

“Climate science” dates back to 1824.

Since 2000 climate models have underestimated observed warming!

All the world’s volcanoes together produce less greenhouse gas emissions that the state of Florida.

Urban heat island and “poor siting” of some weather stations do not affect overall warming results in surface temperature record.

We can differentiate “natural” vs. “man made” CO2 molecules in the atmosphere

The gas shortages of the 1970s presented a major opportunity for Honda & Toyota to dominate the auto industry. Who will win the “climate change” opprtunity?

***

We were very fortunate as Twin Cities broadcast meteorologists to have this incredible collection of climate expertise in one room last weekend. My thanks to Bud Ward at the Yale Forum on Climate Change and The Media, the excellent presenters, and to Pat Hamilton, Sue Landers and everyone at the Science Museum of Minnesota who made the event possible.

About the blogger

Paul Huttner is chief meteorologist for Minnesota Public Radio. Huttner has worked TV and radio stations in Minneapolis, Tucson and Chicago. Paul is a graduate of Macalester College in St. Paul and holds a bachelor’s degree in geography with an emphasis in meteorology.

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Excellent coverage of a very critical issue. Thanks, Paul. Folks will really start to take notice when agricultural output is regularly reduced due to increasing temperatures and drought frequency in the coming years.

Here in northern Minnesota, winter temperatures are now very similar to what I experienced growing up in the Twin Cities back in the 1970s, and the warm Twin Cities winters of the past 15 to 20 years were unknown a generation ago, save for the very occasional odd year.

Humanity and nature are in for one helluva ride.

Ron

How can one gallon of gasoline, which weighs around 8 pounds, produce 18 pounds of CO2?

Brian

2 C8H18 + 25 O2 → 16 CO2 + 18 H2O

It seems impossible that a gallon of gasoline, which weighs about 6.3 pounds, could produce 20 pounds of carbon dioxide (CO2) when burned. However, most of the weight of the CO2 doesn’t come from the gasoline itself, but the oxygen in the air.

When gasoline burns, the carbon and hydrogen separate. The hydrogen combines with oxygen to form water (H2O), and carbon combines with oxygen to form carbon dioxide (CO2).

A carbon atom has a weight of 12, and each oxygen atom has a weight of 16, giving each single molecule of CO2 an atomic weight of 44 (12 from carbon and 32 from oxygen).

Therefore, to calculate the amount of CO2 produced from a gallon of gasoline, the weight of the carbon in the gasoline is multiplied by 44/12 or 3.7.

Since gasoline is about 87% carbon and 13% hydrogen by weight, the carbon in a gallon of gasoline weighs 5.5 pounds (6.3 lbs. x .87).

We can then multiply the weight of the carbon (5.5 pounds) by 3.7, which equals 20 pounds of CO2!

This is one of the best summaries of climate change I have seen, ever. Many times there is so much long, complex information that I am overwhelmed. But you gave us the hi-lites and focused in on the important points with pictures. Yay! Thanks.