September 13, 2012

Romney had been stalled at 45% for the previous 4 days, during which Obama had spiked as high at 50%. (Here's the running history of the polls, available to subscribers only.)

From the first link:

When 'leaners' are included, it’s Romney 49% and Obama 47%....

Perhaps most significantly, Republicans are once again more engaged in the election than Democrats. Forty-nine percent (49%) of GOP voters are following the race on a daily basis. Among Democrats, just 42% are that interested. Throughout 2012, Republicans have consistently held the enthusiasm advantage. However, for a few days following the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, the president’s party caught up to the GOP on this important measure of potential turnout.

The bounce got bounced by the after DNC party-hangover of a crappy economy. Add in the train-wreck that is Obama's foreign policy (sorry MSM, you're efforts to make this about Romney aren't going to work), and we may be past the doldrums for Romney.

Oh yes, and please let the Chicago teachers keep striking - for a month or so. I hate what it's doing to the kids, but then again considering the dropout rate there they may be better off on the streets.

How can this be when Romney killed a US ambassador by giving him cancer when he shut down a steel plant and ended health insurance -- all so he could put his dog on top of his car and buy horses for his wife.

If only he had shown us his tax returns then that recent jobs report would have been awesome and all the middle east would have sung kumbaya.

When more Americans question the security arrangements in Benghazi, rather than Romney's remarks about Cairo's tweets, we'll see another couple of points move for Romney, I imagine.

I think Republican-leaners' outrage over the developments in Egypt and Libya (and now Yemen and Tunisia) are driving up their engagement/enthusiasm. I don't think the story on the unfolding disaster in the Middle East has played out yet, though. The media probably can't do it for him, but the President does have the opportunity, if he takes it, to show decisive leadership here, which could be a huge plus for him.

As we learn more about the Cairene embassy's dispatch, I think the administration could have played that to their advantage much better. Apparently, the embassy staff did try to vet the earlier written statement (that they retweeted after the Embassy was breached) with State. And State said no, but they issued it anyway. If the administration had laid out that story -- said yes, Romney's criticism of the embassy statement, while inartful, was accurate: look, we agreed before this was even an issue, told them not to issue the statement, made them withdraw the statement afterwards, and we're taking steps to ensure we control rogue diplomatic staff in these extremely volatile and sensitive areas -- I think that would have been a much cleaner narrative for them. That would have let the President's campaign take a somewhat more high-minded tone.

I know scores of people across the country who voted for Obama, people of good faith like the professor, who will not be voting for him again. The people I know don't run blogs and don't pretend to any neutrality at this point. But they also are keeping it quiet because in the higher reaches of finance and the corporate world it is best to keep the liberal front well polished. For business reasons. I predict Obama by a hair or Romney is a landslide.

9/11-12/12 are the days and events that turned me from an anti-Obama voter into a pro-Romney voter.

As I chat with colleagues, I ask them, "Did you hear that tape of the journalists working together to attack Romney, crafting the narrative, like they're James Carville? Whatever happened to objectivity?! They should be fired for malpractice. They shouldn't be the PR-advocacy firm for any president or politician."

It's quite the buzz, among all folks no matter what their politics. They think it's unfair.

"How can this be when Romney killed a US ambassador by giving him cancer when he shut down a steel plant and ended health insurance -- all so he could put his dog on top of his car and buy horses for his wife.

"If only he had shown us his tax returns then that recent jobs report would have been awesome and all the middle east would have sung kumbaya."

Obama matches, if not trumps, this by having betrayed his base, working assiduously for the benefit of the wealthy elites; by declaring his administration would protect whistle-blowers while in fact protecting members of the CIA and of the previous administration from investiation and prosecution for crimes, including torture and murder, while going after whistle-blowers with unprecedented ferocity; and by granting himself authority to assassinate anyone, anywhere, anytime, including American citizens...and by acting on his self-granted authority.

ha! Ann's Rasmussen posts are just hilarious. I'm starting to collect them, along with the various "predictions" of the commenters and plan on re-posting them as comments the day after Obama wins re-election. I might have to take the day off, but it will be worth it for a entire day of laughs.

Paulio said...ha! Ann's Rasmussen posts are just hilarious. I'm starting to collect them, along with the various "predictions" of the commenters and plan on re-posting them as comments the day after Obama wins re-election. I might have to take the day off, but it will be worth it for a entire day of laughs.

9/13/12 11:36 AM shiloh said..."entire day of laughs."

After 2008 watched Billo/Hannity on fixednoise. Schadenfreude!

All good things in moderation. :)

9/13/12 11:40 AM

Don't disappear from here the day after election. It would be criminal of you to deprive the sane and intelligent their moment of extreme mirth.

" I'm starting to collect them, along with the various "predictions" of the commenters and plan on re-posting them as comments the day after Obama wins re-election. I might have to take the day off, but it will be worth it for a entire day of laughs."

That's a real interesting life you've made for yourself. Quality work there, sir. I hope your 7th grade project includes posting your prediction above. Such small people on the left, with little concern for real issues. You actually think this is some kind of game.

Hey Althouse, I get it that you don't "trust" Nate Silver so you ignore his numbers, even though they're aggregates of everyone's numbers, including Rasmussen's. What about Fox News? RealClearPolitics? What's the justification for ignoring them?

Since we now have a name attached to that incident repubs should go on the offensive and call her out on it next time there's a press conference and she's there. Shift the question from what is being asked to, "hey' arent' you Jan Crawford? THe ohter day you were caught on tape trying to coordinate a fake journalistic response that would suggest that Romney was somehow jumping the gun or did something to merit voter scorn, almost as if you're trying to push a meme to influence the election. Knowing this, how do I know if I answer any of your questions that you won't try to do the same thing with any of our answers? How about we don't take any questions from your news organization, because you are incapable of being honest? Next question".It doesn't have to be worded that way, but she needs to be embarrassed in public, her and people like her. And even if it doens't change anything, repubs can at least let media outlets know that they're on to their manipulations and they won't be tolerated.

I predict a 45-state electoral college landslide. And I'm NOT expecting any "swing" states to go for Obama this time. He may run again in 2020 or something, but the gloss is off the hopey changey dude now and his moment has passed.

Nate Silver is another intesting lefty talking point. Nobody had heard of him until a few months ago, when someone on the left (can't remember where) started touting him as the wisest, bestest election analyst ever. Maybe he is, but how did he rise so far, so fast, in the leftist river?

As I recall, Silver was actually a baseball statistics nerd who turned his skill towards politics in 2008. He did well in predicting Obama's rise, attracted much attention particularly from the Left, and was offered a blogging position as pollster on the NYT.

I just learned recently, I think from someone here, that Silver also got the attention of the 2008 Obama campaign and has become a pet consultant for Obama -- which may explain Silver's 76.8% bullish on Obama's reelection chances.

Blame the American government for the act of jihadis. How patriotic of you.

I don't know. There are many theories about it. The most interesting theory that I've heard so far, which is nothing more than a theory, I can't—think it can't be proved, is that he was warned ahead of time by the Saudis. Now, who knows what the real situation is, but the trouble is that by suppressing that kind of information, you lead to those kinds of theories, whether they have any truth to them or not, and then eventually they get repeated as fact. So I think the president is taking a great risk by suppressing the clear, the key information that needs to go to the Kean commission.

- Howard Dean describing a theory held by the left that Bush knew in advance about the 9/11 attack.

Add into this, as Obama continues on his campaign fundraiser trip, that the new turmoil in the middle east has driven gas prices to new record levels.

Food prices are going to be following, on Obama's gas cost and the big drought.

Now the drought was not Obama's doing, but Black Messiah will be punished for high food prices sure as Bush was punished because Katrina happened to make landfall near a 3rd world city with a dysfunctional Democrat mayor and a dysfunctional Democrat governor.

How can this be when Romney killed a US ambassador by giving him cancer when he shut down a steel plant and ended health insurance -- all so he could put his dog on top of his car and buy horses for his wife.

If only he had shown us his tax returns then that recent jobs report would have been awesome and all the middle east would have sung kumbaya.

Such an awesome post I'm putting it up again to piss off the right people.

Robert Cook - Obama matches, if not trumps, this by having betrayed his base, working assiduously for the benefit of the wealthy elites; by declaring his administration would protect whistle-blowers while in fact protecting members of the CIA and of the previous administration from investiation and prosecution for crimes, including torture and murder, while going after whistle-blowers with unprecedented ferocity; and by granting himself authority to assassinate anyone, anywhere, anytime, including American citizens...

Well, Robert, I will give you this...you are at least more consistent than Code Pink or the Progressive Jews of the media that ceased their OUTRAGE!! over similar doings in the Bush Administration as soon as their black messiah entered office.

But aside from Democrat connivance with Republicans in ensuring all responsible for the fiscal collapse and greatest ripoff in US history did not only escape prosecution and a single day in jail - but got Uncle Sugar to give them trillions.....A lot of what you hate is what most Americans LIKE about Obama.

1. They are happy that he kept GITMO open.2. They are happy he "extrajudicially assassinated" bin Laden.3. They are happy that he did not back the traitor Eric Holder to the hilt on his witch hunt for the CIA criminals that got the info that led to bin Ladens's "extrajudicial assassination".4. The public is happy he whacked two traitor enemy that happened to technically have US citizenship, because they were enemy, and not criminal suspects. 5. Most the public considers Assange an enemy and Bradley Manning a disgusting little traitor, not a whistleblower...and await the harsh sentence awaiting Manning as his just desserts for betraying Nation, his sacred trust to his military comrades.6. Like it or not, the Chief Executive is the CIC, not a clump of lawyers dressed in robes. Nor a Congress that structurally was never intended to vote on each war target. That means the call to kill or otherwise neutralize enemy, on a tactical level, is with the President and the Executive Branch of government. (In the Gulf War, one war target was a US citizen from Iraq, who got citizenship by marrying an American while somehow keeping his commission in the Republican Guard. In WWII, it was generally a huge mistake for an Italian or German or Jap fighting us to bray they were US citizens upon capture, expecting extra mercy. )

Gag. Does anybody actually follow those biased polls? I don't look at any polls,just like i don't listen to anything that Rush says. I don't even care for Obama but Obama Derangement Syndrome is alive and well.

I think he rose so fast because of his accuracy. My recollection is he called every state correctly except Indiana, and also had very good accuracy with respect to margins of victory. He also correctly predicted the winner of every Senate race that year. Bascially, he did better than all other pollsters.

If he's wrong this year, I suspect he'll fall just as fast as he rose. I wouldn't put much stock in what he's saying now, but based on his performance last go-around (and, for that matter, in 2010) I would bet that his predictions in the couple of weeks leading up to the election will hold true.

If you look at Rasmussen's 2008 polling during Sept/Oct, the race was about Obama +1 up through the end of August. Then Obaam got a +5 bump from his convention which lasted two weeks and dissappeared. Then McCain got a +2-3 bump out of his convention that disappeared after a week, back to Obama +1. Then when Lehman collapsed and the market collapsed in late September, Obama took a 5-7 point lead, and pretty much stayed there until the Election. Obama pounded McCain during that time with his 3-1 money advantage.

THis time is going to be much different. Romney is a better candidate than McCain and there is no money advantage. Obama is the incumbent, but the economy is terrible. Republicans are more exicted to get rid of Obama than Dems are excited to keep him. It could go either way.

I know some people think the Fed's money printing will help Obama, but I disagree. If, (and that is a big If) the money printing has any effect on the economny it won't kick in for many months. In the meantime, the fact that the Fed has to print money, is an easy way for Romney/Ryan to explain why the economy is in terrible shape and why not to believe the spin from Obama/MSM. Obama and the media try to cite and manipulate facts as to why the economy is not "so bad." But, why do we need massive money printing if the economy isn't so bad...??? Are the 11 out of 12 fed governors idiots? (some would say yes, but that is for another post).

PRINTING MONEY PRINTING MONEY FAKE MONEY DEBT AND MORE DEBT. That is Obamanomics.

Perhaps most significantly, Republicans are once again more engaged in the election than Democrats. Forty-nine percent (49%) of GOP voters are following the race on a daily basis. Among Democrats, just 42% are that interested==========================We should stop taking these numbers as Gospel or at least scientific fact. 49 and 42 are about same and do not justify a just" before 42