This will be the first time in Graham's 11-year career that he won't be playing with a Hall of Fame-level quarterback, and his odds of having an even average one in Chicago is quite small. Since turning 30 years old in 2017, he's averaged fewer than 530 yards per season while only scoring five times over the past two. Clearly, he's no longer the dangerous weapon that he was earlier in his career, but working in Graham's favor is that Matt Nagy's offense does prefer to use the tight end heavily, even though the team has had very little production from the position in the last two years. As such, Graham could easily match the 60 targets he saw in 2019. It's unlikely he'll be any more than a low-end starter at tight end in fantasy leagues, but he certainly could have an occasional big week. Predicting when those weeks will occur will be troublesome, though. Read Past Outlooks

ANALYSISWhen discussing the tight end roles on the team, Pace explained that Kmet will be the Y tight end, meaning he'll be placed on the line of scrimmage to block frequently while Graham will be the pass-catching U tight end, who will function as a slot receiver. Assuming this equation doesn't change before September, Graham will be the tight end with the most fantasy value, though after averaging 540 yards and 2.5 touchdowns over the past two years with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, it's unlikely that Graham will be a top-12 fantasy option at the position.

See red zone opportunities inside the 20, 10 and 5-yard lines along with the percentage of time they converted the opportunity into a touchdown.

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Advanced NFL Stats

How do Jimmy Graham's 2019 advanced stats compare to other tight ends?

This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.

Air Yards Per Game

The number of air yards he is averaging per game. Air yards measure how far the ball was thrown downfield for both complete and incomplete passes. Air yards are recorded as a negative value when the pass is targeted behind the line of scrimmage. All air yards data is from Sports Info Solutions and does not include throwaways as targeted passes.

Air Yards Per Snap

The number of air yards he is averaging per offensive snap.

% Team Air Yards

The percentage of the team's total air yards he accounts for.

% Team Targets

The percentage of the team's total targets he accounts for.

Avg Depth of Target

Also known as aDOT, this stat measures the average distance down field he is being targeted at.

Catch Rate

The number of catches made divided by the number of times he was targeted by the quarterback.

Drop Rate

The number of passes he dropped divided by the number of times he was targeted by the quarterback.

How often does Jimmy Graham run a route when on the field for a pass play?

This data will let you see how Jimmy Graham and the other tight ends for the Bears are being used. Some tight ends may have a lot of snaps, but they're not that useful for fantasy purposes because they're not actually running routes. This data will help you see when this is the case.

This section compares his draft workout metrics with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average.

After the Packers drafted a QB in the first round, Aaron Rodgers' long-term future with the team became murky. Still, this is Rodgers' team, even if it's far more run-based than at any point in his career.

Joe Bartel takes on Day 2 in our fantasy fallout series from this year's draft, where Green Bay's selection of AJ Dillon out of Boston College qualifies as one of the biggest surprises from rounds two and three

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Two years ago, Graham had a mediocre season saved by touchdown deodorant in Seattle. Last year, he struggled through the same type of season, but without the deodorant. That's how he crashed to TE14 while playing 16 games in an Aaron Rodgers offense. The Green Bay front office is banking on a bounce-back season under new coach Matt LaFleur, electing to pay Graham a $5 million roster bonus in March rather than cutting him. However, the Packers are mindful of Graham entering his age-33 season, and while they don't have a clear replacement in mind for opening day, they did just use a third-round pick on TE Jace Sternberger. The lack of proven talent at wide receiver behind Davante Adams hints at opportunity, but Rodgers is a notorious favorite-player when it comes to his pass catchers, and Graham does not appear part of that inner circle after last year's ugly performance.

Touchdowns are the ultimate fantasy deodorant, and Graham went heavy on the roll-on last year. Although his YPC cratered and he had the worst catch rate of his career, he finished as the TE6 in PPR and TE4 for standard scoring, leading the league in both red-zone targets (27) and targets inside the 10-yard line (16). Keep those spikes coming, Top Jimmy. Now Graham changes teams again heading into his age-32 season, something that would normally terrify us. But wait, it's the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers - so that's good, right? Just consider that the Packers signed Jared Cook in 2016 and Martellus Bennett in 2017 - a pair of transactions which yielded cumulative production of 610 yards and one touchdown in 17 regular-season games. Graham represents the third attempt at finding a reliable veteran tight end for Rodgers, who seemed to be annoyed with the Packers' decision to release long-time No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson, a proven red-zone target. How confident you feel about Graham's touchdown count is probably how you'll feel about his fantasy prognosis. The Pack certainly didn't get Graham to block; he's been a traffic pylon in that area for several seasons now.

Graham looked out of place during his injury-riddled Seattle debut two seasons ago, but he made an inspiring comeback last year. He tripled his touchdown count, spiked his YPC and was back among the top four on the TE scoring board after a one-year absence. Anyone in the Seattle passing game has to accept that he's trading volume for efficiency. Graham averaged 138 targets during his four busiest New Orleans seasons, but he didn't even make 100 last year, despite playing all 16 games. Graham did rank third among tight ends in red-zone targets, though he only caught six and turned four into scores. One of the takeaways from Graham's 2016 effort -- a torn patellar tendon is no longer a death sentence. That's the injury he encountered in 2015, but he didn't look like a compromised player at all last year. His 4.56 speed from the 2010 Combine mostly seems to be intact, and at 6-7, 265, he's still one of the premier athletes at a position loaded with physical marvels. Four Pro Bowl trips in six years is heady stuff, and Graham should have plenty in the tank entering his age-30 season (he turns 31 around Thanksgiving). But with Seattle's offensive philosophy, Graham doesn't carry the same type of upside he had in the pinball New Orleans days.

Graham's expected transformation of the Seahawks' passing game never came to fruition last season as Seattle inexplicably failed to integrate him into the offense in a meaningful way. It wasn't just a five-year-low target pace, it was how the Seahawks used him, or more accurately, failed to use him. While the Saints kept him in tight about a third of the time, the Seahawks nearly doubled that number, making it harder to create mismatches to take advantage of his near-unstoppable combination of size (6-7, 265) and speed (4.53 40). Failure in the red zone, where he had but a single TD, was perhaps most perplexing. In 11 games, he had eight red-zone targets – four after Week 1 – and three targets inside the 10, none after Week 3. He didn't even move the chains much, tying for eighth among TE in first downs (29) through Week 12. In 2014, he had 45 in that span (T-1st). Worst of all, in Week 12 he suffered a season-ending torn patellar tendon in his right knee, a notoriously difficult injury to overcome. Graham will be "eased into training camp," and it's unclear if he will be ready Week 1. It's also unclear how much speed, agility and leaping ability he lost. And there's still the question of whether he can find a productive place in a passing game, that, after a few tweaks, became a juggernaut without him late last season.

It's perhaps remarkable what Graham accomplished last year considering he played most of the year with a sprained shoulder. He finished second among tight ends in receptions and touchdowns and fifth in receiving yards. But thanks to the injury, he averaged a career-low 10.5 yards per catch as his production fell dramatically even though he had just one fewer reception than in 2013. He was routinely jammed at the line, struggled to fight through double-teams and was accused of "alligator arms" because he couldn't fully extend to catch passes. As a result, his targets of 20-plus yards and receptions of 25-plus yards both fell by 10, and his long-distance scores dropped from five to one. The shoulder healed with offseason rest, but the concern this year is the blockbuster trade to the league's most run-heavy offense in Seattle. The Seahawks likely will use him as a wide receiver at least as much, if not more, than the Saints, creating mismatches on defensive backs with his size (6-7, 265) and on linebackers with his speed (4.56). And Russell Wilson will take advantage of Graham's 38.5-inch vertical at the goal line, as Graham has turned 27 receptions inside the 10-yard line the last four years into a league-leading 23 touchdowns. But while double-digit touchdowns seem within reach, Graham's opportunities for yards won't be as plentiful going from the league's second-ranked offense in attempts to the 32nd.

Graham is almost a tight end in name only. So much so, in fact, he asked an arbitrator to declare him a wide receiver for franchise-tag purposes. Graham lined up in the slot on 67 percent of his snaps last season, led the league in receiving touchdowns and averaged more fantasy points per game, 13.6, than all but four wide receivers. He was one of seven players – and the only tight end – to top 100 receiving yards in six games, and he was the only player in the league with two receiving touchdowns in five games. Graham is a freak athlete who thrives on mismatches. At 6-7, 265, he is too big for defensive backs, and his 4.56 speed is too fast for linebackers. Add a 38.5-inch vertical and gigantic hands that thumb to pinkie measure 10-5/8 inches (nearly the length of an 11-inch NFL football tip to tip) and it's easy to see why he's such a force. He's nearly unstoppable at the goal line, scoring a position-leading six touchdowns inside the 10-yard line last season and 17 in the last three years, tied with wide receiver Wes Welker for the most in the NFL. Drew Brees' accuracy is a bonus, as is playing in one of the league's most prolific passing attacks, which ensures a high volume of targets. After 143 last season (25 more than the next closest tight end), he has 427 targets the last three years, sixth in the NFL. The only knock on Graham is that he doesn't like contact, and a physical defense can slow him. Perhaps, but that strategy hasn't worked too often. In the last three years over 47 games, he's only had six games with less than 50 yards and no touchdowns.

While Graham failed to live up to 2011's lofty expectations, he still had an impressive season. He nearly topped 1,000 yards receiving in 15 games, and his nine touchowns were only two off his previous season's pace. His 135 targets ranked second among tight ends, though his per-target average dipped 1.5 yards last season.
While part of his regression from 2011 was probably due to missing coach and offensive mastermind Sean Payton, a bigger factor was a nagging wrist injury during the second half of the season; after scoring eight touchdowns in his first nine games, he scored only once more – in Week 17. The wrist also contributed to an NFL-high 14 dropped passes. Graham underwent wrist surgery in January and should be ready for the start of the season.
An athletic player, Graham uses his 6-7 frame to go up and get the ball in traffic. He also has enough speed to outrun opposing defenses as evidenced by his 32 catches of 20-plus yards the last two seasons. It also helps to have an accurate passer in Drew Brees, who for the second consecutive season attempted more passes to Graham than anyone else on the team.

This space last season said Graham had the potential to be a top-five tight end, but even that underestimated his upside. Graham proved himself an elite tight end, rivaled only by New England’s all-world Rob Gronkowski, as Graham led the position with 99 receptions. His 1,310 receiving yards was, by 17 yards, second only to Gronkowski’s record-setting total, as were his 18 catches of 20-plus yards and his 11 touchdowns. A former college basketball player, Graham is virtually uncoverable. He can use his 6-7, 265-pound frame in traffic whether covered by a linebacker, defensive back or both. In the open field, he’s big enough to go through linebackers and fast enough with 4.5 speed to run away from defensive backs. His route running improved during the season, though his ability to read defenses and find the soft spots in the zone is still developing. Graham is obviously in a great situation as the top target in the prolific New Orleans offense. He never saw fewer than seven targets in a game last year, and his 149 targets ranked fifth among all receivers, 23 more than the next closest tight end. In the red zone, he led all tight ends with 28 targets, and his 13 targets inside the 10-yard line were second only to Aaron Hernandez’s 17.

A converted basketball player, Graham played one season of football at the University of Miami but showed enough potential that the Saints used a third-round pick on him in 2010. And he showed enough promise as a rookie last year that the Saints let starter Jeremy Shockey walk this offseason, setting up Graham for a potential breakout. A behemoth of tight end at 6-8, 260, Graham came on for the Saints over the second half of last season, posting 26 receptions, 307 yards and five touchdowns in his final eight games. In significantly fewer snaps, he racked up 43 targets to Shockey's 59 and saw nine red-zone targets to Shockey's 10. With the position all to himself this season in one of the NFL's most explosive offenses, Graham has the upside to be a top-5 tight end.

Graham was drafted by the Saints in the third round of the 2010 NFL Draft. A physical specimen, Graham has all the tools to become an elite tight end in the NFL. The kicker: Graham only played one season of football at the University of Miami. While in college, Graham spent four years on the Hurricane's basketball team. Still, his raw talent was enough to earn him a spot in the NFL Draft and reminded many top executives of Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez, two similar basketball-turned-football players, even if Graham might be a year or two away from fantasy-relevance.