Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Last weekend Mr. Mason, he of the Globe (AndNoLongerEmpire) Mail, published a piece in which he implied that, even if their (then) slightly favourable poll numbers were to hold, the Dippers probably won't win:Elections in British Columbia are always an uphill battle for the New Democratic Party and, despite polls putting it ahead, this one is no different.

As the electoral history of this province has demonstrated, a lot has to go right for the NDP to win a general vote. More often than not, triumph is the result of some breakdown in the centre-right coalition that has ruled British Columbia, under a couple of different political institutions, for all but 13 of the past 65 years. The conditions for that type of wholesale collapse are not evident this time around...

Interestingly, Mr. Mason relied on a pollster by the name of Greg Lyle for a big thwack of faux sage-brushed wisdom in his piece:...While British Columbians are undoubtedly dissatisfied with the Liberal government on many counts, Mr. Lyle does not believe that enmity is deeply entrenched. In his (own) March poll, he asked those surveyed to respond to the assessment: “I am so angry at the BC Liberal party I will never vote for them again.” Just 34 per cent of respondents agreed.

“That is a pretty low number,” Mr. Lyle said in an interview. “People might be upset at the government, but how motivated are they to do something about it? That is the key question. And our poll indicated that the anger level is not very deep, so the Liberals would have to be encouraged by that.”...

{snip}

...While Mr. Lyle holds the view the NDP is in tough given the significant seat advantage the Liberals hold, he is someone who knows first-hand anything can happen. He was campaign director for the Liberals in 1996, the year Gordon Campbell led them into battle and lost, even though the party received more of the popular vote.

Could that happen again? Mr. Lyle thinks so, but this time it could be the NDP at the bitter losing end of that equation.

“The more likely scenario this time would be NDP wins more votes, but Liberals win more seats because of the distribution of votes among seats,” he said. “What has changed since ‘96 is the Libs have strengthened their hold on rural seats and the NDP have done better in urban seats. So that means, bottom line, the NDP could be a bit ahead in the polls and still lose the election.”...

I mean, it's almost as if Mr. Lyle was staring into the heart of some very dark internal numbers last Thursday/Friday that were telling him that the wizards of Clarklandia were in big, big trouble in the wake of the first radio debate.

And then, today, courtesy of Simon Little at CKNW we get....

This:We’re getting a look at the first set of numbers to come out since last week’s radio leaders debate, and they suggest the NDP has the advantage.

The Main Street/Postmedia poll, conducted April 20-22, suggests despite what some had characterized as an over aggressive debate performance the NDP has built a ten per cent lead provincewide among decided and leaning voters.

The survey pegs the NDP at 44 per cent (+5), the BC Liberals at 34 (-3), and the BC Greens at 22 per cent (+1)...

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he would impose a 20 percent tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, according to a White House official and two people present when he made the comment at a reception for conservative journalists...

From Hana Mae Nassar's breathless coverage of a recent double photo-op by our fine Premier posted to the CKWX website:

...(Christy) Clark joined tens of thousands of people taking part in today’s yesterday's Vancouver Sun Run. While she didn’t run the full race, Christy Clark says events such as the Sun Run are a good way to build community....

Gosh.

It is my understanding that Ms. Clark was there at the start and the finish for pictures galore.

As for all that hard work required to actually get through the middle bits?

Not so much

Of course, grandstanding without actually running, means Ms. Clark had plenty of time to spout messages about her 'message' to the attending stenographers without actually having to submit said 'message' to any real scrutiny whatsoever:...Joined by fellow Liberal candidates, she (Ms. Clark) is nothing but confident when asked how her campaign is going so far.

“I’ve been feeling really good about it, I mean I’m always an optimist. And my job is just to make sure people know what we stand for, what I want to do if I get a second term as Premier and I feel like we’re working hard to get that message out.”...

Hmmmmmm....

If that is really the case one can only wonder why the good Ms. Clark was not on McComb's little morning radio show this morning as was the case with the other two party leaders?

Saturday, April 22, 2017

AiMHi is presenting yet another chance for residents to hear from candidates running for office in this year’s provincial election.

Spokesperson Fred McLeod says an all-candidates forum will take place next Thursday, April 27, from 7:00 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. in the AiMHi gymnasium at 950 Kerry Street.

He says candidates from the Prince George-Valemount and Prince George-Mackenzie ridings have been invited to attend...

{snip}

...He says the Liberals were provided with four possible dates in mid-March but were told by the Liberal campaign this week neither will be attending.

McLeod says he’s disappointed. “Absolutely, but we will continue without them. The challenges that people are facing are huge and they need to have an opportunity for those challenges to be brought to the fore in an election period and if government candidates choose not to be there I think it sends a statement.”

He says one of the biggest challenges facing the disadvantaged in all B.C. communities is the monthly payment of $1,033 persons with disabilities receive each month. That sum was bumped up $50 a month April 1, 2017....

Ahhhhh...

Now I get it.

They're too scared to face the disabled folks they've been screwing over for 16 years.

There is a name for that I believe.

_______ Kind of makes one wonder what would happen if kids in care, or seniors that need care, or homeless folks organized an all candidates meeting...Heads would likely explode in BCL war rooms everywhere.

Friday, April 21, 2017

It looks like the Wizards of Clarklandia really have gone full metal Lib-Con with their war room.

Heckfire.

Even the good Mr. Kinsella, Warren not Patrick, got in on the act when it came time to let fly with the codswallop in the immediate wake of yesterday's usery mouthpiece-moderated debate.

Codswallop that most of the local proMedia herd dutifully rolled around in before they got up and filed their copy.

Interestingly, Nancy Macdonald of Macleans managed to stay out of stinkiest of the crap on the ground and actually came up with something interesting to say after she first described John Horgan's combative nature:

...Yet Horgan’s weakness may also be his strength. Where some see anger, others see passion. Voters rarely see a full debate. They watch it in clips on their Facebook feeds and the nightly news. The point of it all is to make yourself look strong and nimble.

And there were times Clark’s attacks fell flat. In her defence, the party has given her little to work with. The stale and hackneyed Liberal platform, an exhaustive celebration of the government record, contains almost no new promises; this has forced her to try to fight back using the tired, Liberal strategy of drumming up fear over the NDP’s mid-‘90’s record. “It’s April, 2017,” Horgan said at one point, shutting down the attack. “What are you going to do for people today?”...

It will be interesting to see if regular folks do come to see the passion positively as voting day approaches.

Personally, I think they just might especially if Mr. Horgan continues to define himself rather than allowing the LibCons do it for him as happened to Mr. Dix last time around.

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Nevermind all this talk about minor league credit ratings (which Laila Yuile deals with very effectively, here).

Instead, take note of the fact that the fine folks that the BC Liberal wizards have hired to run the war room appear to have research in hand that has resulted in their recommending an 'All Christy All The Time' (ACATT) strate(r)gy.

Which means that the campaign is shaping up to be a 'Beyond The Valley Of The Stealth Cons' saga all over again.

Or.

Put another way....BC Liberal cannon fodder....errrr....candidates will not be showing up for local riding meetings/debates where they might actually say something which could lead to real problems for ACATT.

Especially if the candidates were to say things that actually make sense compared to the ginned-up word salad being spewed under the ACCATT doctrine.

Are those super-stealthy, voter-suppressive robo-callish-type democracy-mangling machines I can see lurking just over the leaders' debate horizon?

_________What's a 'Stealth Con' you may be asking?....Well....You know.....Which really leaves one wondering who the true generals are in that BCL war room.*And/or speeding away from them while driving a corinthian leather-lined vehicle provided very finest of the fine member of the new car dealers' association of Clarklandia.

Monday, April 17, 2017

I first had a vague inkling that something might be shifting in the Lotuslandian political zeitgeist in the first day or two after the writ dropped last Tuesday.

Which, to my mind at least, was supported by the following in the Dean's Friday column in the VSun:

...(BC Liberal Finance Minister Mike de Jong) levelled a broad-brush accusation that NDP spending promises would mean “massive” increases in taxes and deficits and a downgrade in the province’s Triple A credit rating.

Maybe. But at first read the NDP plan did not represent all that massive a shift from the three-year budget the Liberals themselves tabled in February.

Horgan would increase program spending by 1.4 per cent above what the Liberals were projecting for the current financial year, by 2.5 per cent in fiscal 2018 and three per cent the next year.

Those increases, for the most part, would finance readily defensible priorities — including a long overdue increase in social assistance, elimination of interest on student loans, hiring more park rangers and conservation officers, and rolling back ferry fares on the smaller routes...

...The Clark government is demonstrably not working to help make life even remotely affordable for those low-income individuals and families.

It is not prepared to make even those modest investments, to help those who are able to work, lift themselves out of poverty, with meaningful employment that might alleviate or ultimately eliminate their dependency on social assistance.

Again, on this issue, the NDP did not try to outspend the Greens, who propose raising income assistance rates by 50 percent over the next four years. A bold and noble platform commitment, for sure, but not at all realistic, in my humble assessment.

Horgan’s platform is by contrast eminently reasonable and clearly affordable. It offers a welcome first step toward helping those most in need, yet without also unduly and even cruelly raising false expectations of what any new government will be able to responsibly afford...

So.

What, exactly, is that shiftyness thing I mentioned at the top of the post really all about Alfie?

Well....

It looks like some of the puffed-up punditry 'round here is starting to look at Mr. Horgan like he is the reasonable, pragmatic one who will really and truly make things happen for all of British Columbia without blowing the place up.

Gosh.

Is the Keef sure to follow?

________ I realize the Mr. Brown may have an anti-CClark axe to grind, but still...Go have a look at his entire piece...He makes a decent case as a detailed follow up to Mr. Palmer column.

The real interesting thing to watch for in Week 2?....Well, in this vein at least, it will be interesting to see if other herd members start to paint Mr. Weaver as the extremist out on the looney left...If that happens and middle really does open wide for Horgan and the Dippers, I'm pretty sure the BCL wizardarian braintrusts' collective lobb-shopped potato-head will very likely explode.Subheader ear worm got hold of you?....Relief is...Here.

Thursday, April 13, 2017

Mr. Mason, he of the Globe and (No Longer Empire) Mail, has written yet another conventionally obvious column in which he concludes that, for the BC Liberals to lose, folks in in the 'mushy ideological middle' will have to turn their backs on...

"...a government that has boasted arguably the
strongest economy in the country over the past four years,
unquestionably the best record of fiscal management among the provinces
and an enviable job-creation record..."

Does this kind of superficial analysis from the likes of Mr. Mason even matter if most mushy middle folk, regardless their ideology, can't buy a house, or find their own doctor, or get a decent daycare space, or book a teacher's aide when one is required, or get an ambulance when they need one, or even get a campsite if they don't have a spread on one of the Gulf Islands when it's time for summer vacation?

The point is that a generation ago most middling British Columbians could do all of those things and more. And now, well, a great many of them can't.

And what did all those folks receive in return for giving up all those previously available/attainable things?

Why, absolutely nothing except, of course, a massive tax shift in the form user fees up the wazuk...errr...wazoo (i.e. the HST by another name), a humongous crony-assisted sell off of public assets/treasures/rivers, and the accumulation of a massive pile of real debt that Mr. Mason and his fellow proMedia club members refuse to talk seriously about.

In other words, it's 'Heads They Win, Tails We Lose' all over again.

And there's absolutely nothing mushy about the middle of that big money coin I reckon.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

There is more (much more!) reaction to the BC Liberal Real-Increase/Fake-Decrease on ferry fares 'Say Absolutely Anything To Get Elected' thingy that we discussed the other day in an excellent editorial from the Times Colonist.

The B.C. Liberals have included a “break” for frequent ferry users as part of their newly announced election platform. The promise is a sham and an insult to island dwellers.

Supposedly, the party will “work with B.C. Ferries to develop a loyalty discount program by 2020 that will save money for frequent ferry users.” It takes three years to produce a discount program?

Until that joyous day arrives (if it ever does), the Liberals have committed to offering “residents of ferry-dependent communities” an income-tax deduction. Please note: We have no idea whether frequent ferry users and residents of ferry-dependent communities are one and the same. No doubt we’ll hear more on that at some future point.

The tax deal works like this: Ferry users will be able to deduct 25 per cent of their fares from their net tax payable to the province, up to a total of $1,000. That works out to a saving of $250 a year.

Really? You’re going to put ferry users through the misery of a complex income-tax manoeuvre to save them a few bucks. Why not just hide $10 bills throughout each ship and let passengers go on a treasure hunt?

It’s clear what is going on here. This is similar to one of those money-back deals that companies offer customers who don’t like their product. They’re counting on most people finding the process too time-consuming to follow through.

That seems (to be) the motive here. The Liberals are dangling a form of rebate, knowing it’s too obscure or cumbersome to find an audience.

Otherwise, why not take the obvious step and cut fares? That would cost actual money...

Now.

Put this into perspective together skyrocketing Hydro rates, ICBC rates and MSP rates, all loaded on to the back of average British Columbians, and ask yourself the following...

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

It would appear that Bob Mackin didn't get the memo and/or read the sign on the proMedia Club members' door.

Because last night Mr. Mackin had the gall to chase Deputy Premier Rich Coleman down after a BC Liberal party leaders dinner and ask him real questions about real issues that Mr. Coleman has been ducking, repeatedly, of late.

Mr. Coleman refused to answer Mr. Mackin's questions at least in part because, in his words, 'You never tell the truth about me'.

As reader Lew has pointed out on the Twittmachine, the real story here was the total lack of other 'reporters' present at the really big do....

Kind of like those MSP rollbacks that haven't actually started rolling yet.

What a surprise.

__________Interestingly, as pointed out by Bob Mackin, Global's local news channel did not cover the release of the Chalke report live but they did did go wire to wire with live coverage of the firing of a lame duck hockey coach who wanted nothing to do with the tanking of the good ship Linden-pop.

It turns out that the explanation is laying right there in Ombudsperson Chalke's report of his investigation (pg 31 of pdf file):

So.

There you have it.

At the 'most basic level' the investigation was kept from public view because it was 'required' and because it was a 'central feature' of said investigation.

Imagine that!

______Looks like the one lasting accountability impact aspect of the report may turn out to be an actual documentation of Ms. Clark's statements to Mr. Chalke that turn out to be at complete odds to what she is spouting to the proMedia now....Laila Yuile and Paul Willcocks both noticed.

...Now, four years after the city gave 508 Helmcken to the developer at a $15-million value, it has been assessed as high as $130 million by B.C. Assessment, and documents show that it could be worth even more at market rates...

Wow.

That lock sure did hold back a whole lotta moola.

Interestingly, the great unlocking also involved a loan from BC Housing (i.e. your money and mine) that apparently helped facilitate that decidedly un-social (three million dollar apartments for all!), unlocking:

...NDP housing critic David Eby has asked why B.C. Housing, which is mandated to provide social housing, provided a previously undisclosed $39-million loan to (the developer) Brenhill. The loan in 2016 required reporting of pre-sales progress in the luxury tower...

****

Alrighty then.

With that pre-amble out of the way, let's get on with the game!

Dot #1:

...Bob Rennie was involved in bringing forward the loan proposal to B.C. Housing’s board, while Rennie was a member of that board, in November 2013...

Dot #2:...Rennie recused himself from the discussion and approval of the funding for Brenhill from B.C. Housing in the deal, documents show. But B.C. Housing officials refused to disclose to Postmedia why Rennie recused himself...

Now, while you keep your eyes on those two dots just revealed, how about we hunt down that all important Dot #3, which has actually been out in the open for ages, all the while being well-polished by breathless promotional pre-sales puff pieces that include money shots like the following from Claudia Kwan, also 'published' in PostMedia's prints:

...“With so many projects, people ask how big the units are, how much does it cost, and what’s the view,” says Tracie McTavish, executive director of project marketer Rennie Marketing Systems...

...The governing B.C. Liberals, however, do care about how voters interpret what is likely to be a scathing report. The government is getting ready and has a good idea of what’s coming, because the law required Chalke give warning to those who will be criticized...

The point?

The Clarklandians and their Wizards already know how much (or how little?) white will be on the wash.

And you can bet that the media plan is being constructed as I type and/or you read this.

______The real key to how damning the report is will be defined by how quickly the speaker, Linda Reid, releases it.