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Reviewing the 2013 NHL Entry Draft

In what was described as an average draft with a consensus on who the top-four players got jumbled as Seth Jones fell to the fourth-overall pick. As per usual, precise picks (player X at position X) got hammered among the various draft publications (as well as myself), but there was also a dip in the overall percentage of players predicted to be selected in the draft. Without further ado, here are the numbers. Acronyms: EOTS (Eye on the Sens), TSN (Bob McKenzie), FC (Future Considerations), HP (Hockey Prospects), RLR (Red Line Report), THN (The Hockey News), ISS (International Scouting Service), McK (McKeen’s), CP (Corey Pronman), and THW (The Hockey Writers).

This is pretty similar to last year, just slightly lower (although I improved). The biggest surprise pick was Marko Dano (with Emile Poirer the next most). Adam Erne was the most surprising player to fall out of the round.

A solid round (except for CP, who did not have a good draft day), but it was not a sign of things to come. Given how few exact picks there are, I didn’t continue tracking them beyond this point. The biggest surprise pick was Tyler Bertuzzi (Remi Elie the next most).

Overager Mattias Janmark-Nylen was the first unranked player taken in the draft (RLR did suggest he might go), with Kurtis Gabriel quickly following. Highest rising ranked pick was Keegan Kanzig (Taylor Cammarata takes second in that category). Oliver Bjorkstrand tumbled down to near the bottom of this round.

Fourth Round (minus THN)RLR/HP: 7
McK/ISS: 5
CP/THW: 4
FC/EOTS: 3

Felix Gerard, Tobias Lindberg, and Stephon Williams were the unranked players taken. Highest riser was Ryan Segalla (David Pope was the next highest). Ryan Fitzgerald was finally taken at the back end of the round.

Fifth Round (minus McK and THW)
RLR: 7
HP: 6
ISS/FC/CP/EOTS: 4

Kristers Gudlevskis, Evan Campbell, Terrance Amorosa, Fabrice Herzog, and Matej Paulovic were unranked players taken. Highest riser was Tucker Poolman (Blake Heinrich is the next highest). Eric Roy tumbled down to the middle of this round.

Another pile of unranked players were taken (12): Aleksi Makela, Wade Murphy, Joel Vermin, Brenden Kichton, David Drake, Jedd Soleway, John Gilmour, Hampus Melen, Janne Juvonen, Emil Galimov, Anthony Brodeur, and Mitchell Dempsey. No real high risers in the seventh round, but Greg Chase came close to falling out of the draft.

Congratulations to HP which (in the four years I’ve done this) has never been ahead in this category (usually middle of the pack). These are actually good numbers, although the bulk of them (as one would expect) are generated from the first two rounds. Here’s the listed players taken in the draft irrespective of which round they were taken in (again, only using those who predicted the entire draft):
EOTS/HP: 146/211 (69%)
FC: 145/211 (68%)
RLR: 143/211 (67%)
ISS: 138/211 (65%)
CP: 135/211 (63%)

I managed to keep my streak of being first, albeit tied with HP. The total represents a 6% drop from last year (but on par with 2011). Excluding CP (who was not included in creating my raw numbers), ISS lagged behind everyone else for the second year in a row. So who fell out of the draft? Here’s a look at the top players who didn’t get picked:

All of TSN’s picks were taken, which is no surprise given that only 80 were selected. The most prominent name not taken is Lucas Wallmark and perhaps the reason he was left behind is his skating (RLR considered him the slowest player in the draft). Kurt Etchegary also appears regularly above, but injury seems the main reason behind him not being selected. CS’ European goaltending rankings continue to be largely ignored. A lot of overage players were picked this year (the most since I’ve been doing this), which is either a comment on the quality of the first-timers or (more likely) that NHL teams prefer a safer bet with later picks. There was also a significant uptick in the number of unranked/not ranked players taken (32 this year, as opposed to 23 in 2012). Here’s the range of players picked by nationality (not league):
Canada 96
United States 57
Sweden 23
Finland 11
Russia 8
Czech Republic/Switzerland 4
Austria/Denmark/Slovakia 2
Latvia/Norway 1

In terms of highly ranked players from last year (link above) who went undrafted, Anton Slepyshev (3-88 Edmonton), Patrik Bartosak (5-146 LA), and Henri Ikonen (6-154 TB) were selected this time around (Andrei Makarov was signed by Buffalo as a free agent), while the other 13 players were not.

[…] his methodology and my thoughts on it here; Corey was dead last in accurately picking the draft this year, but that doesn’t inherently reflect on his ability to judge talent). Ottawa winds up 18th […]