Worldwide Carbon Emissions Set for Record Levels in 2014 – Can the EU Step up its Leadership in New York and beyond?

Recent data from the Global Carbon Project show that worldwide carbon dioxide emissions—the main driver of climate change—are set to reach a record-breaking 40 billion tones in 2014, led by a 2.5% rise in fossil fuel burning. In order to maintain a 66% chance of keeping global warming below 2 degrees—a widely accepted safety threshold—global future emissions should not exceed 1,200 billion tones. At current emissions levels, this carbon quota may be used up in just 30 years.[1]

Next to China and the USA, the EU is one of the world’s biggest carbon emitters. While the good news are that the EU managed to reduce its carbon emissions by 1.8 per cent over the last year, the EU continues to export a third of its emissions to China and other producers. In other words, a large chunk of indirect EU emissions simply do not show up on its balance sheet.

By contrast, scientists from the Global Carbon Project show that global emissions must decrease by more than 5% annually for several decades to limit global warming to 2 degrees. But how to share these emissions reductions? A paper published alongside the Global Carbon Project data suggests that a ‘mixed’ approach where richer countries reduce emissions more, but all contribute some emission reductions appears most politically viable.[2]

In concrete terms, this means that the EU would have to reduce its emissions by well above 5% each year going forward. Given the 1.8% reduction between 2013 and 2014 and the 20% reduction by 2020 target, it is clear that the current approach is too weak for the EU to seriously lead on climate change in order to limit warming to 2 degrees. If the EU is to lead in New York this week and in Paris in 2015, it would be well advised to take these figures seriously.

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Environmental Europe?

We are three early career researchers studying European Union environmental politics. We hope that you will enjoy this blog, where we will post regularly on ongoing environmental and climate policy developments in the EU. For regular blog updates, follow @EnvEurope on Twitter. Our contact details: Viviane Gravey (@VGravey), Jonas Schoenefeld (@JSchoenefeld), and Brendan Moore (@brmo07).