Preseason Power Rankings No. 28: Buffalo Bills

Posted by Josh Alper on July 9, 2014, 9:00 AM EST

AP

It has been a while since the Bills contended for more than a Top 10 draft pick and this doesn’t look like the year that things change.

Perhaps things would feel different if linebacker Kiko Alonso was going to be a part of the defense after his strong rookie season, but a torn ACL has left the Bills shorthanded just before the start of training camp. It’s a massive blow for a team that has big questions to answer about quarterback E.J. Manuel in head coach Doug Marrone’s second season leading the team.

Manuel’s progress could make this prediction seem silly come December, but, for now, PFT’s panel thinks the Bills are headed for another disappointing season as the quarterback tries to grow after an injury-riddled rookie season.

Strengths.

The Bills led the AFC with 57 sacks last season and much of the pressure came from a talented defensive line. Defensive end Mario Williams and defensive tackle Kyle Williams will lead the defense again and there’s every reason to believe they’ll be just as effective. The team has to hope that defensive tackle Marcell Dareus gets his head on straight after multiple arrests in the offseason because they’ll need to continue pressuring offenses throughout games to get the results they want.

While the Bills keep their fingers crossed for a leap forward from Manuel, they’ll lean heavily on their running backs to keep the ball moving. C.J. Spiller was banged up last year, but still picked up 4.6 yards per carry, and Fred Jackson blew past any age concerns with 833 yards of his own. They added Bryce Brown to the mix in a trade with the Eagles, giving them plenty of options to control the ball and the clock in the coming season.

Weaknesses.

The team signed Brandon Spikes and Keith Rivers to give them some veteran depth at linebacker, but Alonso’s loss is still going to be a big one. The team saw safety Jairus Byrd leave in free agency, which means they’ll be without two of their biggest defensive playmakers from last season.

There’s plenty of talent on the offensive line with right tackle Cyrus Kouandjio joining left tackle Cordy Glenn and center Eric Wood as foundational pieces to build around. The guard spots are less settled and it may take some time for the unit to coalesce, especially if rookie Cyril Richardson winds up starting between Wood and Kouandjio this season.

The Bills defense made life difficult for opposing quarterbacks in 2013, but their run defense was not as sharp. Alonso’s loss doesn’t figure to help that, although a new scheme may bear more fruit.

Gelling quickly would be a major boost to E.J. Manuel’s chances of making strides in his second season. Manuel struggled through several knee injuries last season, robbing him of practice and playing time he needs to mature as a quarterback. It is far too early to make any kind of sweeping proclamation about Manuel’s future, but it is also a stretch to say that the Bills should feel totally confident about him heading into this season.

Changes.

There are big changes at wide receiver for the Bills after they traded away Stevie Johnson, acquired Mike Williams from Tampa and made a big move up the board in the first round to select Sammy Watkins. Watkins’ big-play ability is a welcome addition to the offense and should be of great assistance as Manuel tries to establish himself as a starter.

Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine left to become the head coach in Cleveland after devising a disruptive attack during his one year with the Bills. Former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz has taken over the unit and a lot of the pieces are still in place, although it remains to be seen if Schwartz will deploy them as aggressively as his predecessor.

The biggest change hasn’t actually been made, though. The Bills are going to be sold in the wake of founder Ralph Wilson’s death and that will mean differences in the way business is done in Buffalo, although we won’t know how many until the new owner has taken over the reins.

Camp Battles.

With Watkins, Williams and Robert Woods, the Bills have the top three spots at wide receiver pretty well settled heading into camp. T.J. Graham and Marquise Goodwin will compete for snaps as the fourth man on the depth chart and one of the third-round picks could find his roster spot in jeopardy.

Kouandjio is seen as the likely right tackle, but the Bills have both Erik Pears and Chris Hairston back as well. That means the rookie won’t be handed the job without a second thought, although taking him in the second round is a pretty good sign of how much the Bills wanted to upgrade at the spot.

Alonso’s injury has cast some doubt on how the Bills will line up at linebacker. Spikes looks set for the middle and Preston Brown is expected to get the first shot at replacing Alonso on the weak side. Nigel Bradham and Rivers should compete on the other side, although the situation will likely be fluid through camp.

Prospects.

The looming ownership change creates uncertainty beyond the eventual home of the Bills. Marrone and General Manager Doug Whaley should probably feel some pressure to put up a winning season before new decision makers decide their fate in the organization.

That pressure may have contributed to the decision to trade up for Watkins, a move that brought them a dynamic athlete but also cost the team next year’s first-round pick. As a result, it ratchets up the need to win now because another high pick will be Cleveland’s to use.

There’s enough talent on defense and in the backfield to make a case for the Bills taking that step forward, but they stand right alongside several trouble spots that make it hard to buy into that wholeheartedly as the Bills head toward a new chapter in the history of the franchise.

Wrong….you have been wrong on every team so far……….and offensive line is not one of the Bills weaknesses. Try again or at least send one of your writers to mini camp to watch.

dickshotdogs says:Jul 9, 2014 9:09 AM

I absolutely believe The Bills are better than #28. The loss of Kiko is certainly devastating, but this team is getting better and they’re fun to watch. I’m always nervous when I watch them play. Oh, and keep them in Buffalo!

Patriots fan

bassplucker says:Jul 9, 2014 9:09 AM

Someone on this voting panel has mad love for the Browns, that’s for sure.

TheMansiere says:Jul 9, 2014 9:17 AM

Soooo…,all and all, there was less here to justify the 28th ranking than there was to actually buy into it. Cool!

eroschmidt says:Jul 9, 2014 9:18 AM

This ranking is based on past history. The Bills were 6-10 last year and I think they have one of the most improved rosters this offseason. No way they end up 28th. I think they are going to suprise some people…

marvsleezy says:Jul 9, 2014 9:19 AM

Lets put this in perspective – The 28th worst team in the league usually only wins 3 or 4 games. The Bills have easily won 6 games for three seasons in a row, and could have won 8 last year.

So I can pretty much guarantee right now that this prediction will be wrong.

Theres no way the Bills are only a 3 win team this year. Id love to bet money that this prediction will be wrong.

The Bills never get any respect. They have a stacked team. I hate to see Kiko out which will hurt but this is where Nigel Bradham has to step up and show he is as good (like he was projected). This team will definitely finish above .500. Only have to keep that injury bug away from this team. GO BILLS!!!!

These rankings are deplorable so far. Buffalo has a strong rushing attack, filled the holes on their OL, have 3 extremely talented WRs, have the best DL in football, have a deep and talented CB crop, have a guy on roster with similar production to Byrd to replace him. The biggest questions this team has are if Manuel can step up and what the LBs will look like without Alonso. However, all accounts so far are that Manuel looks much more solid in practice so far. And with the talent around him, and that DL and secondary, Manuel only needs a good season to win, not a great one. And the Bills brought in 2 situational players and a rookie this offseason to shore up the LBs. Besides the fact that LB is deemphasized in Jim Schwartz system.

The Bills are mid 20s on the lowest end

boomnutz says:Jul 9, 2014 9:49 AM

These rankings are funny (and so are the people who blast them but offer nothing more than conjecture). My initial thought on each team so far (even the Raiders and Jaguars) are “What?! they’ll be better than this” but then when I think about it, there aren’t too many candidates to choose to do worse. Every one of these teams have reasons for optimism. The parity in this league is extraordinary. Ranking the bottom 10 teams is a whole heck of a lot tougher than ranking the top 10.

How do you guys even have a job think were a little better than 28th, Go back to school Football one o one..Go Bills

boomnutz says:Jul 9, 2014 9:53 AM

One thing i have to say to about these rankings… where’s the respect for the AFC East?! Pretty sure as a division they fared better against teams outside their own division than every division but the NFC West. The Patriots may dominate and make the other 3 look worse, but for years now there has never been any easy outs. Each team plays good defense and has reasons for optimism on offense (Tannenhill and their talented WR corp, Buffalo and NYJ both have 2nd year QBs who flashed at times and made some solid additions as pass-catchers – the Bills in all honesty could have one of the most talented WR corps in the league in another season or two)

Seriously, as a Jets fan, I would trade rosters in a minute. The Bills have some big time play makers in Spiller and Watkins. Picking up Williams don’t hurt, and their Defense will be fine with that line. EJ is the only real question mark. If he playes like a franchise QB they win 10 games. If he playes like a bust they win 6 games.

The Bills won 3 division games last year and finished 24th over all. I think they will be slightly better then last year. Particularly if EJ manual stays healthy. They can beat Miami twice again and they can certainly split with the Jets and possibly even the Patriots, so that is at least 3 division wins again and maybe 4. They can split the NFC North 2 wins. They can split between Houston and Cle 1 win. They can split the AFC South (they can beat oak and SD) – 2 wins. They have a shot at 9 wins and probably can get to 8.

The Bills won 3 division games last year and finished 24th over all. I think they will be slightly better then last year. Particularly if EJ manual stays healthy. They can beat Miami twice again and they can certainly split with the Jets and possibly even the Patriots, so that is at least 3 division wins again and maybe 4. They can split the NFC North 2 wins. They can split between Houston and Cle 1 win. They can split the AFC South (they can beat oak and SD) – 2 wins. They have a shot at 9 wins and probably can get to 8.

I don’t know if the Bills are #28, but they’re not that far off so stop the crying. The only offense they have is the Jackson/Spiller combo. EJ Manuel is NOT an NFL QB so the WR core will largely go to waste. They gave up too much for Watkins, who like most rookie WR won’t produce much his rookie year, and only has EJ to throw to him so his value is capped big time.

FYI to EVERYONE complaining about the Browns….We beat the Bills last year….

Just Sayin’…Go Brownies!!
…………..
With Jeff Tuel, an undrafted rookie with no business being on an NFL field playing.

Just sayin…

-Bengals fan

denverwally says:Jul 9, 2014 10:24 AM

By adding Brandon Spikes and Keith Rivers at linebacker the Bills got older and MUCH slower. Spikes is a big hitter but he has absolutely no pursuit speed and just wait until they see him in pass coverage. Yikes is he bad.

not even a cleveland fan but the browns got stacked this year bud. Whitner at safety, fs tashaun gipson is going into his third year and showed progress. Middle linebackers are karlos dansby , paul kruger, and barkevious mingo, all fast pass rushers with the exception dansby can fall back into coverage and stop the run. The two d- tackles are phil taylor ( good) and ahtaya rubin ( great ) . defensive ends are jabal sheard and desmond bryant. corners joe haden pro bowl, 1st round pick justin gilbert on the other side. offense johnny football ,a very solid line, ben tate at rb, pro bowl tight end jordan cameron the only thing they really need is a little help at reciever. So for all the browns haters, this is going to be really funny when they are in the playoffs this year lol.

jjackwagon says:Jul 9, 2014 10:33 AM

The Raiders hope with a lot of hard work and 10 or 12 more drafts they can attain this ranking. Say it with me Trollonto…”We’re 32!!! We’re 32!!”

Wow, the vikings delusion continues on with these rankings. No way are the bills worse than the vikings. Just give it about four weeks before the fan base throws in the towel. Enjoy your offseason thoughts of grandeur I guess?

Nice ownership up there, have to trick people into buying season tickets? pathetic from the owners and fans.

Everyone who says cleveland should be here doesn’t know jack about the roster except gordon is prob suspended and we have johnny football (who they think stinks, without taking a snap yet)… Keep on hating. It’ll make it funnier when we beat YOUR team this year.

Ps. I think the bills could be better than this but probably not without Alonso and Byrd. Good luck.

between cheating, signing low class players, an “I was duped” owner, the great BB (LOL), and there great division and conf…. what have they really done?

fair question Pats fans

if not for Brady, who is great, what would this org have been?

pftfan says:Jul 9, 2014 11:49 AM

Buffalo had a .375 winning percentage last season and didn’t considerably improve their team.

28 seems right.

upstaterules says:Jul 9, 2014 11:55 AM

Alonso and Byrd are very good ball players, but the dline has 3 pro bowlers and the the 4th DE had double digit sacks. I think Kiko and Jarius benefited from this dline.

Schwartz is a very good DC. Buffalo’s biggest additions came with the coaching staff; Schwartz, Hostler, Downing, Moore and Pepper Johnson. EJ Manuel actually has a QB coach this year.

The team will be better. Defensively, they have to settle on two Nickle LB’s with Kiko’s absence.

The offense has the weapons, it all depends on EJ Manuel progressing.

I am not arguing their ranking, I just feel a more accurate state of the Bills should be voiced.

kgunforhire says:Jul 9, 2014 12:06 PM

You could’ve saved time writing this by just stating that this season rides on the progression/regression of EJ Manuel. I feel that they have more than enough on offense and defense to win, but it all hinges on Manuel.

I wasn’t impressed with what I saw last season and I’m very pessimistic about him at best. You can know the ins and outs of the offense, but that isn’t going to help when he short hops intermediate routes or leads his WRs out of bounds on deep throws. I saw too much of that last season. Here’s hoping he worked on his mechanics in the offseason just as much as he absorbed more of the play book.

The loss of Alonso is tough, but it isn’t a death warrant when you’ve got capable players to slot in. Brown, Rivers, Bradham can make up for what all he did.

PFT NEEDS the Bills to be 28th in the NFL. So them and all these other draft geeks can get off saying it was wrong to trade a 1st round pick to the browns for 2015. Hope you get your wish them to get your clicks and make $.

scw1993 says:Jul 9, 2014 12:54 PM

politicallyincorrect would turn an article about world hunger into an “I hate NE, Brady, and Belichick, it’s not fair that they win all the time” thread.
Seek help, you’re obsessed.

That said, this ranking for the Bills is too low, always nervous playing them. If Spiller comes back 90% -100% healthy, he’ll have an impact. Watkins could prove to be a beast, have to wait and see. The ownership thing is looming, but all in all, I see them higher than 28.

@billswillnevermove Vikings have a good OL, a good TE (Rudolph), good FB (Felton) and even the defense has good players. It could be a 7-9 team on the AFC. Also, picked the best QB in the draft at #32 while JAX picked a worse QB at #3.

What does the Bills have without Byrd? Their D-line. Period. And that line is good against the passing game, but horrendous against the run.

Sammy Watkins won’t change that, Calvin Johnson is the best WR in the game yet the Lions have ONE winning season with him (and they’re better than BUF)

“billswillnevermove says:
Jul 9, 2014 11:24 AM
Without a doubt worse team in football will be the Vikings. No way the Bills and Dolphins should be on this list already or even the Raiders. Worse 5 should look like this:

32: Vikings
31: Jags
30: Browns
29: Titians
28: Skins”

The Titians? I’d be shocked if anyone in Tennessee could name an Italian Renaissance painter who didn’t have a corresponding Ninja Turtle counterpart…

thefiesty1 says:Jul 9, 2014 1:30 PM

Joke if it’s not Cleveland.

Frazier28/7 says:Jul 9, 2014 1:31 PM

*Green Bay Packers minus Aaron Rodgers are the worst sports team in the entire country.

Did the Bills lose 5 games in the last minute in 2013? And do they have Adrian Peterson? Didn’t so….

in fairness, Pats have been a nice little AFC team… though I still demean for cheating, low class players and ownership.. and division

but, trying to be fair… Pats have been a nice AFC team

footballfan58 says:Jul 9, 2014 1:54 PM

Hahaha! Politicallyincorrect! You seriously make me chuckle! The Patriots are so far under your skin you live, eat and breath hating them! Now I ask you, what better compliment can New England have? Hahahaha!!!

Now, back to the topic at hand: I think the Bills should be ranked much higher as should the Dolphins.

I personally would easily have Cleveland as 23 – 25 on a pre season power ranking so I don’t see the issue that people are complaining about there. Cleveland ended the 2013 season ranked 27th and Minnesota was 25th and both teams upgraded in the off season. If there was a complaint anywhere it’s why the Redskins haven’t appeared yet who weren’t even competitive and has done very little to change other than coaches.

The things that people aren’t taking into account are that Cleveland and Minnesota are both in divisions where their isn’t a clear #1 team. Basically the division winner of the NFC and AFC North last season was the team that sucked the least. Now add the Hoyer/Manziel factor in Cleveland and the Bridgewater factor in Minnesota and worst case scenario they only go up one spot which would STILL have them higher than the teams already named with the best case scenario being they’re top 20 because just being slightly competitive in their division makes them a playoff team (Cleveland was first place in the AFC North until Hoyers injury week 6). This compared to a team like the Raiders who would need a miracle to compete with how good the other teams in their division looked last year.

bassplucker says:Jul 9, 2014 2:14 PM

So, Sammy Watkins and E.J. Manual are bigger question marks than a going-off-the-rails Josh Gordon, Brian Hoyer and oh yeah, that little twerp of a rookie who’s been playing the fool in Vegas every weekend?

FYI to EVERYONE complaining about the Browns….We beat the Bills last year….

Just Sayin’…Go Brownies!!

28 71

oh you mean the game where even the announcers mentioned that the Bills were slowly starting to suck the life out of the Browns, then their #1 pick for qb was hurt, replaced by an undrafted FA qb and you basically won, on the merits of 2 great returns??? yeah you won, but that is why they play the games…. But that does not make you better than the Bills, but oh I forgot, you signed Whiner, er whitner. Soon you will realize how overrated he really is…his favorite defensive call is the one where he is standing around the 2o looking at the wr catching the ball behind him..Dont believe me? wait until he is forced to cover Spiller or Goodwin who is lined up as the 3rd wide out…BOOM!!!!

oh and I may as well add, while Johnny Douchenozzle is partying it up in Vegas (yes it is his right), the guy you should have drafted has been practicing his craft with learning to get off jams at the line…SAMMY>JOHNNY BIEBER..

So the 24th team from last year, basically swaps Mike Williams for Stevie Johnson, Kiko Alonso for Brandon Spikes, adds Sammy Watkins, Corey Graham and beefs up the O-line but is some how worse? Not to mention having their QB come in to his second season with a full off season behind him.