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Friday House Line: House GOP Prospects Grow Dimmer

The ongoing economic crisis coupled with the aggressive assertion of Democrats' massive fundraising advantage has significantly broadened Republican vulnerabilities in the House and made a 25-plus seat pickup a very real possibility.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, sensing the once in a generation opportunity for huge seat gains, has taken out a $15 million bank loan -- a cash infusion that will allow them to go after a far broader number of newly vulnerable Republican incumbents.

Independent political analysts like Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook have upped their predictions of Democratic gains in recent weeks -- with a 20-seat Democratic gain now seen as the floor for November.

Most strategists -- in both parties -- privately believe Democrats are positioned to pick up well more than 15 seats especially given the developments of the last few weeks. During that time, the bottom, which many GOP operatives believed had long ago been reached, dropped out further with seemingly safe incumbents like Reps. Dan Lungren (Calif.), Dana Rohrabacher(Calif.), Dean Heller (Nev.), Lee Terry (Neb.) and Peter Roskam (Ill.) now in real races.

If the likes of Lungren et al. wind up losing, Democrats could well score seat pickups of 35 or more in 19 days time -- a wave that would drop Republican into weak minority status at the start of 2009.

In other words, although we only list the 25 seats likely to switch party control in our House Line this week, the playing field has the real potential to be much larger (and worse) for Republicans.

As always, the top ranked race is the most likely to flip party control on Nov. 4. And, remember that the Line is meant to be a conversation starter so use the comments section to offer your own thoughts on our picks. What did we leave off?

To the Line!

25. Wisconsin's 8th district (D): This race, a rematch between Rep. Steve Kagen (D) and state Rep. John Gard (R), has seen significant attention from both national parties of late. That the cash-strapped National Republican Congressional Committee is up with ads in the district -- one of the VERY few challengers for which that is the case -- is a sign of the opportunity they believe the seat represents. (Previous ranking: N/A)

24. New Mexico's 2nd district (R): While New Mexico's 1st district has drawn most of the national attention, former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague (D) has run a solid (and well-funded) campaign that puts him an even money bet against 2002 candidate Ed Tinsley (R) on Nov. 4. (Previous ranking: N/A)

23. Pennsylvania's 3rd district (R): Every two years Democratic strategists would look at the demographics of Rep. Phil English's (R) northwestern Pennsylvania district, and insist he could be beaten. And yet, no serious challenger ever emerged -- until now. Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper is ahead of English today and that's bad news for any incumbent with 18 days left before an election. (Previous ranking: N/A)

22. Louisiana's 6th district (D): Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) has strengthened his position in recent weeks but still faces a tough race against a two-headed opponent: state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) and state Rep. Michael Jackson, a Democrat running as an independent. Much depends on how much of the black vote Jackson is able to siphon away from Cazayoux. (Previous ranking: 16)

21. Washington's 8th district (R): Rep. Dave Reichert (R) is probably the only Republican who could hold this Seattle-area seat that is moving strongly in Democrats' favor. But, even Reichert's local fame (he helped capture the Green River Killer) might not be enough to insulate him from a terrible Republican year. Two new polls show 2006 nominee Darcy Burner (D) leading the race. (Previous ranking: 24)

20. Ohio's 15th district (R): This race, decided by 1,500 (or so) votes in 2006, has the potential to be another nailbiter this November. Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, the Democratic nominee in 2006, started the race with an advantage but state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) has closed the gap. Can he close it enough? (Previous ranking: 20)

19. Alabama's 5th district (D): This is a seat where the two sides vehemently disagree. Democrats believe state Sen. Parker Griffith (D) is putting the race away (and have internal polling to prove it) while Republicans see Griffith losing ground to three-time nominee Wayne Parker. That's why they have elections. (Previous ranking: 19)

18. Florida's 8th district (R): When Rep. Ric Keller (R) won this Orlando-area seat in 2000, it was one of the most competitive contests in the country. Keller's problem is that over the next eight years -- despite a series of non-serious challenges -- he never cemented his ties to the seat. And that leaves him in a world of trouble against wealthy attorney Alan Grayson (D). (Previous ranking: 25)

17. Colorado's 4th district (R): Can Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) save herself from herself? Republicans insist the incumbent's prospects are improving but she is a notorious underperformer in what should be a safe GOP district. (Previous ranking: 8)

16. Nevada's 3rd district (R): Rep. Jon Porter (R), after a series of surprisingly easily races, is now in a bitter (and expensive) battle against 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus (D). Should Porter survive -- an iffy proposition right now -- he will almost certainly leave the seat in two years to challenge Sen Harry Reid (D). (Previous ranking: 22)

15. New Mexico's 1st district (R): In a neutral political year, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R) would probably win this Albuquerque-based district. But, this isn't a neutral political year so Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich is the favorite but not by much. (Previous ranking: 13)

14. New Hampshire's 1st district (D): In a cycle where Republicans don't feel particularly good about their chances almost anywhere, this seat is a rare exception. Private GOP polling has former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) ahead of Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D) and the NRCC is spending on his behalf. (Previous ranking: 14)

12. New Jersey's 3rd district (R): New Jersey is a strange place for politics. Because it lacks a media market of its own -- most of the state is covered by Philadelphia and New York City -- voters don't tend to pay much attention until the very end of the race. And so, it's not surprising that a recent poll shows state Sen. John Adler (D) ahead of Medford Mayor Chris Myers 38 percent to 34 percent with nearly as many people (29 percent) undecided. Adler's huge fundraising edge should come to bear on television in the final weeks and he remains the favorite. (Previous ranking: 9)

11. Alaska's At-Large district (R): It's amazing but true -- Rep. Don Young (R) still has a chance to win re-election despite the controversy swirling around. If he does beat state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz (D), Young will have Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to thank. (Previous ranking: 1)

10. Illinois' 11th district (R): This open seat contest made national news earlier this week when Vice President Dick Cheneycanceled a fundraiser for concrete magnate Marty Ozinga due to an irregular heartbeat. In a race expected to be close, state Sen. Debbie Halvorson (D) seems nearly certain to receive a boost from home state Sen. Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket. (Previous ranking: 11)

9. Ohio's 16th district (R): State Sen. John Boccieri appears to have recovered from a bit of a rough spot as a candidate during the summer months and once again is the odds-on favorite to claim the seat being vacated by Rep. Ralph Regula (R). Boccieri has a cash edge over fellow state Sen. Kirk Schuring (R) and a Democratic poll released earlier this month showed him ahead comfortably. (Previous ranking: 12)

7. Florida's 24th district (R): Rep. Tom Feeney (R) realized how much trouble he was in a little too late. By the time he started to fight back against former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D), the damage was done. Chalk another loss up to ties to former influence peddler Jack Abramoff. (Previous ranking: 18)

6. Virginia's 11th district (R): Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly (D) is now on TV in the costly Washington (D.C.) media market. (The Fix knows -- we've seen the ads!). It's probably a precautionary measure given the strong Democratic tilt of northern Virginia. (Previous ranking: 6)

4. Arizona's 1st district (R): The only reason we dropped this race a few slots from the last Line was the fact that we believe the margin in this vast district will be slightly smaller than those in the races ranked above it. But, former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is going to win. (Previous ranking: 2)

This list seems much more contestable than recent House Lines. Many of the races in the middle of the pack are indistinguishable from each other -- very close in a bad year for Rs. So why are IL-10 and Reichert's seat in WA-8 a whole 10 places apart? And NM-1 in the middle? And what happened to MN-3? (Madia has more money and is also slightly ahead in polls) And why the big improvements for Young and Musgrove?

The same people that brought Bush to power are working to get McCain elected. If McCain is not Bush, why is he using robocalls like the ones Bush used against him in South Carolina accusing him of fathering a black child? Why has he for months used negative ads like the one he defended in his Des Moines Register interview accusing Obama of corrupting young children with sex education? Is this political expediency?
If that's the case then McCain is a foully
corrupt man who is no better than Karl Rove in his dealings with the public.

If elected, McCain will completely destroy the middle class by creating and enforcing laws protecting the wealthy and corporations.
He will attack Social Security and Medicare.
He will tax employee healthcare and deregulate state oversight of insurance companies worsening healthcare for millions.
Worst of all he will send the country into a brutal long recession by over reacting in his spending freeze, closing off paths to recovery.

When McCain hugged Bush he wasn't kidding.
His middle name isn't Sidney, it's George

Is the United States a perfect country? Nope. Is it the best country in the world? To a large degree, the 2008 election may be a referendum on that question.
In my lifetime, there has never been a shortage of Americans more than willing to believe that our nation is tawdry collection of small-minded people–imperialists, racists, homophobes, sexists, xenophobes, evil rich, etc., etc.– whose devotion to the principles espoused by our Founding Fathers–those slave owning, dead white European males–amounts to little more than lip service.
For them, patriotism is an admixture of jingoism, naivete’ and illusion. All war is a business opportunity. Religion is a repository of prejudice and fear. History is a systematic whitewash of our genocidal exploitation of an above-reproach indigenous culture. In short, we’re a hopeless, hapless mess of a nation.
While such simplistic notions always have a kernel of truth in them, the driving force behind them all is the same: a lack of perfection equals total failure.
Thus, for example, it doesn’t matter that we ended slavery, it only matters that we had it. It doesn’t matter that we’ve produced the highest standard of living in the world, it only matters that we haven’t eliminated poverty completely. It doesn’t matter we’ve assimilated more immigrants than any other country in the world, it only matters that we want to deport “undocumented workers.” And so on and so forth.
This “the perfect is the enemy of the good” attitude has been politically nurtured by the American Left. Without it, imposing their particular version of “perfection,” aka big-government socialism, becomes impossible. With it, a country far too “imperfect” to be left to its own individualist, free-market, personally responsible devices can be brought to heel.
Today’s liberalism is not about selling reasoned or sensible change for a country that needs “tweaking.” It is about selling the hysteria that we are a nation in need of an “Extreme Makeover.”

Is the United States a perfect country? Nope. Is it the best country in the world? To a large degree, the 2008 election may be a referendum on that question.
In my lifetime, there has never been a shortage of Americans more than willing to believe that our nation is tawdry collection of small-minded people–imperialists, racists, homophobes, sexists, xenophobes, evil rich, etc., etc.– whose devotion to the principles espoused by our Founding Fathers–those slave owning, dead white European males–amounts to little more than lip service.
For them, patriotism is an admixture of jingoism, naivete’ and illusion. All war is a business opportunity. Religion is a repository of prejudice and fear. History is a systematic whitewash of our genocidal exploitation of an above-reproach indigenous culture. In short, we’re a hopeless, hapless mess of a nation.
While such simplistic notions always have a kernel of truth in them, the driving force behind them all is the same: a lack of perfection equals total failure.
Thus, for example, it doesn’t matter that we ended slavery, it only matters that we had it. It doesn’t matter that we’ve produced the highest standard of living in the world, it only matters that we haven’t eliminated poverty completely. It doesn’t matter we’ve assimilated more immigrants than any other country in the world, it only matters that we want to deport “undocumented workers.” And so on and so forth.
This “the perfect is the enemy of the good” attitude has been politically nurtured by the American Left. Without it, imposing their particular version of “perfection,” aka big-government socialism, becomes impossible. With it, a country far too “imperfect” to be left to its own individualist, free-market, personally responsible devices can be brought to heel.
Today’s liberalism is not about selling reasoned or sensible change for a country that needs “tweaking.” It is about selling the hysteria that we are a nation in need of an “Extreme Makeover.”

Is the United States a perfect country? Nope. Is it the best country in the world? To a large degree, the 2008 election may be a referendum on that question.
In my lifetime, there has never been a shortage of Americans more than willing to believe that our nation is tawdry collection of small-minded people–imperialists, racists, homophobes, sexists, xenophobes, evil rich, etc., etc.– whose devotion to the principles espoused by our Founding Fathers–those slave owning, dead white European males–amounts to little more than lip service.
For them, patriotism is an admixture of jingoism, naivete’ and illusion. All war is a business opportunity. Religion is a repository of prejudice and fear. History is a systematic whitewash of our genocidal exploitation of an above-reproach indigenous culture. In short, we’re a hopeless, hapless mess of a nation.
While such simplistic notions always have a kernel of truth in them, the driving force behind them all is the same: a lack of perfection equals total failure.
Thus, for example, it doesn’t matter that we ended slavery, it only matters that we had it. It doesn’t matter that we’ve produced the highest standard of living in the world, it only matters that we haven’t eliminated poverty completely. It doesn’t matter we’ve assimilated more immigrants than any other country in the world, it only matters that we want to deport “undocumented workers.” And so on and so forth.
This “the perfect is the enemy of the good” attitude has been politically nurtured by the American Left. Without it, imposing their particular version of “perfection,” aka big-government socialism, becomes impossible. With it, a country far too “imperfect” to be left to its own individualist, free-market, personally responsible devices can be brought to heel.
Today’s liberalism is not about selling reasoned or sensible change for a country that needs “tweaking.” It is about selling the hysteria that we are a nation in need of an “Extreme Makeover.”

Is the United States a perfect country? Nope. Is it the best country in the world? To a large degree, the 2008 election may be a referendum on that question.
In my lifetime, there has never been a shortage of Americans more than willing to believe that our nation is tawdry collection of small-minded people–imperialists, racists, homophobes, sexists, xenophobes, evil rich, etc., etc.– whose devotion to the principles espoused by our Founding Fathers–those slave owning, dead white European males–amounts to little more than lip service.
For them, patriotism is an admixture of jingoism, naivete’ and illusion. All war is a business opportunity. Religion is a repository of prejudice and fear. History is a systematic whitewash of our genocidal exploitation of an above-reproach indigenous culture. In short, we’re a hopeless, hapless mess of a nation.
While such simplistic notions always have a kernel of truth in them, the driving force behind them all is the same: a lack of perfection equals total failure.
Thus, for example, it doesn’t matter that we ended slavery, it only matters that we had it. It doesn’t matter that we’ve produced the highest standard of living in the world, it only matters that we haven’t eliminated poverty completely. It doesn’t matter we’ve assimilated more immigrants than any other country in the world, it only matters that we want to deport “undocumented workers.” And so on and so forth.
This “the perfect is the enemy of the good” attitude has been politically nurtured by the American Left. Without it, imposing their particular version of “perfection,” aka big-government socialism, becomes impossible. With it, a country far too “imperfect” to be left to its own individualist, free-market, personally responsible devices can be brought to heel.
Today’s liberalism is not about selling reasoned or sensible change for a country that needs “tweaking.” It is about selling the hysteria that we are a nation in need of an “Extreme Makeover.”

Is the United States a perfect country? Nope. Is it the best country in the world? To a large degree, the 2008 election may be a referendum on that question.
In my lifetime, there has never been a shortage of Americans more than willing to believe that our nation is tawdry collection of small-minded people–imperialists, racists, homophobes, sexists, xenophobes, evil rich, etc., etc.– whose devotion to the principles espoused by our Founding Fathers–those slave owning, dead white European males–amounts to little more than lip service.
For them, patriotism is an admixture of jingoism, naivete’ and illusion. All war is a business opportunity. Religion is a repository of prejudice and fear. History is a systematic whitewash of our genocidal exploitation of an above-reproach indigenous culture. In short, we’re a hopeless, hapless mess of a nation.
While such simplistic notions always have a kernel of truth in them, the driving force behind them all is the same: a lack of perfection equals total failure.
Thus, for example, it doesn’t matter that we ended slavery, it only matters that we had it. It doesn’t matter that we’ve produced the highest standard of living in the world, it only matters that we haven’t eliminated poverty completely. It doesn’t matter we’ve assimilated more immigrants than any other country in the world, it only matters that we want to deport “undocumented workers.” And so on and so forth.
This “the perfect is the enemy of the good” attitude has been politically nurtured by the American Left. Without it, imposing their particular version of “perfection,” aka big-government socialism, becomes impossible. With it, a country far too “imperfect” to be left to its own individualist, free-market, personally responsible devices can be brought to heel.
Today’s liberalism is not about selling reasoned or sensible change for a country that needs “tweaking.” It is about selling the hysteria that we are a nation in need of an “Extreme Makeover.”

Is the United States a perfect country? Nope. Is it the best country in the world? To a large degree, the 2008 election may be a referendum on that question.
In my lifetime, there has never been a shortage of Americans more than willing to believe that our nation is tawdry collection of small-minded people–imperialists, racists, homophobes, sexists, xenophobes, evil rich, etc., etc.– whose devotion to the principles espoused by our Founding Fathers–those slave owning, dead white European males–amounts to little more than lip service.
For them, patriotism is an admixture of jingoism, naivete’ and illusion. All war is a business opportunity. Religion is a repository of prejudice and fear. History is a systematic whitewash of our genocidal exploitation of an above-reproach indigenous culture. In short, we’re a hopeless, hapless mess of a nation.
While such simplistic notions always have a kernel of truth in them, the driving force behind them all is the same: a lack of perfection equals total failure.
Thus, for example, it doesn’t matter that we ended slavery, it only matters that we had it. It doesn’t matter that we’ve produced the highest standard of living in the world, it only matters that we haven’t eliminated poverty completely. It doesn’t matter we’ve assimilated more immigrants than any other country in the world, it only matters that we want to deport “undocumented workers.” And so on and so forth.
This “the perfect is the enemy of the good” attitude has been politically nurtured by the American Left. Without it, imposing their particular version of “perfection,” aka big-government socialism, becomes impossible. With it, a country far too “imperfect” to be left to its own individualist, free-market, personally responsible devices can be brought to heel.
Today’s liberalism is not about selling reasoned or sensible change for a country that needs “tweaking.” It is about selling the hysteria that we are a nation in need of an “Extreme Makeover.”

Yesterday, I heard Michelle Bachman, representative of Minnesota, make some of the most reprehensible and despicable remarks about our government and America on national television (Chris Matthews Hardball).

Her rant about "anti-Americans" in Congress and in our country -- as IF she had the final word on deciding just WHO is "American enough" -- could have been words uttered by Joe McCarthy -- a man who represents a low point in our country and our government.

Michelle Bachman (I won't give her the courtesy of a title, since I feel she is not deserving of it) spewed out demagogic, reckless, and unsubstantiated accusations about Congressmembers -- public attacks on the character or patriotism of political opponents that seem to be the main strategy of John McCain, Sarah Palin and quite a few other REPUBLICAN surrogates... including members of the House and Senate.

As an American and a voter, I am appalled and I believe this woman deserves censure for her unfounded and defamatory accusations, on behalf of ALL AMERICANS, not just those in Minnesota.

Well, I for one, would like to see some infrastructure repair; roads bridges, ect...
I also believe a new nationwide energy system such as solar, nuclear, and wind power set up. I would like to see our solders deployed along the borders of America instead of Iraq just to keep the riff-raff and troublemakers to a minimum. Sadly, I cannot afford this all by my lonesome and I believe they are VITAL to the future success of our nation, which by the way is NOT guaranteed. So I am happy, if not relieved, to chip in a few extra bucks to our government once a year to see this happen. No other organization could do these things. If they could they would already have done so as these programs would be immensely profitable.

The fact is Obama's tax plan is just a return to the PROVEN system
Bill Clinton used during the prosperity of his term in office.
Bill Clinton left office with huge budget surpluses.

McCain's tax plan is just an extension of the PROVEN failure of the Bush tax system of rewarding the wealthy and corporations at the expense of the middle class. The middle class is now paying for his mess.

People like to argue theory and statistics but it's as simple as this:

I can't even imagine how anyone would vote for obama or any other liberal democrat fro that matter. obama is a man who will raise oyur taxes and i don't care how much you make why would you want more of your hard money to go to the goverment. i know i for one don't. we need smaller gov. which=less spending which=less taxes. the only good thing for the economy is to keep more money in the people's hands. obama is guilty of voter fraud because he gave money to ACORN and has not condemned their actions. no american should tolerate those criminal activities. also people in goverment are sworn to uphold our constitution, an oath that obama has broken. he has shown nothing but disrespect and disregard to our first and second admendments that say we have the right to freedom of speech and the right to bear arms. no american should put up with that and allow a man like obama to come and create a radical socialism that would steal our rights and freedoms. vote for John McCain a man who is proven, a man who can lead, a man who is pro american, pro feedom, pro democracy, pro life and a man who will defend our nation from attack. under obama our national security will be compromised.

I can't believe Sarah Palin called certain parts of the country UnAmerican. Look at the words she used. Pro American, Real Americans, and Best of America. What kind of Right Wing nut is Sarah Palin to be running for VP and insulting the same folks she wants to vote for her. I guess its only Obama supporters or anybody who doesn't support their robo calls and low road campaign tactics. I think the media is taking this too lightly. Sarah Palin during a fund raiser said that only certain parts of the country are patriotic and real Americans and she's running to be VP and proberly president. Thats very alarming and I think she needs to explain exactly which part of America does she think is UnAmerican or less patriotic. This is starting to become a narrative. On Chris Mathews today congresswoman Michelle Bockwman said that congress should be integregated on who's American and anti-American. Now Sarah Palin is stating that only certain parts of America are Pro America. This follows 3 weeks of attacks from the Mccain/Palin campaign that questioned Obama's patriotism. The republicans and Mccain/Palin campaign should be questioned about their patriotism its the Republican party that has made the economy worst with their deregulation and their Right Wing policies for the rich. Its the Republican Party that has us in 2 wars thats costing us Billions a month. How patriotic is the Republican Pary when the leader of their Party is leaving the country with 2 wars with no resolution, 11 trillion in debt, and a economy in turmoil? Their the ones if anybody who's patriotism should be in quesion. I think if Mccain/Palin were in the White House the country would be worst with their radical Right Wing beliefs and their decisive nature. KEEP MCCAIN/PALIN OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE. WHY HASN'T THE MEDIA ASK MCCAIN ABOUT HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH GORDON LIDEY? IT TOOK DAVID LETTERMAN A NIGHT SHOW COMEDIAN TO GIVE MCCAIN A REAL INTERVIEW. THE MOST EFFECTIVE INTERVIEW MCCAIN HAS HAD THROUGHOUT THIS CAMPAIGN.

After Michele Backmann's disgraceful appearance on Hardball Friday night, she will soon be on the endangered list of House Republicans. She called Obama a terrorist and called for an investigation of others in Congress who are "un-American."

Her opponent in the 6th Dist. of Minn., El Tinklenberg, was raising money at $300 per minute after her appearance. Backmann is another nitwit Republican beauty queen who has the temperament of a brown shirt thug.

The shift from Republican to Democrat should be obvious to anyone as to why...we've had far too many Katrinas at all levels of the government.
Supposedly no one saw any of this coming. Now I neither well educated nor too bright, but even I had misgivings about what was going on.
And, no one has been able to get the gov't motivated activated, in command of the situation.
It really seems like no one is in charge, and no one says the buck stops here any more.

Regarding Rep. Jon Porter, I've never understood why people think him losing means he's somehow removed as a threat to Reid in 2010. It's not like people have never come back from losing elections, and, if anything, kicking him out of the House gives him nothing but spare time to stew and plot revenge. Not that I think Nevadans are likely to get rid of their most powerful political voice ever.

It says quite a bit for the Democrats' prospects that there are a ton of extremely plausible wins not on this list (indeed, several where the Dems have polled ahead); I'll add another to those already mentioned: Judy Baker in the Missouri 9th open seat.

Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN) in an appearance on "Hardball With Chris Matthews" on Friday, Oct 17, called for the American media to begin a "penetrating investigation of anti-American liberals in the congress."

Calling Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) "a terrorist," Bachmann said she believes that other liberals in congress are collaborators in "an attempt to take over the US Government."

Lynn Sweet, Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times appearing on the same program, called Bachmann "woefully uninformed" and said Bachmann appeared to be calling "for the reinstatement of the House Unamerican Activities Committee."

The 1950s era "Army-McCarthy Hearings" were conducted by Wisconsin Sen. Joseph McCarthy, who was censured by the Senate.

The Dems can taste blood. They have internal polls on turnout and likely voter intentions and they haven't borrowed 15 million without feeling confident. I'm starting to think we're in Goldwater country. The minority and youth vote is going to blow the pollsters and pundits away mark my words. I've always thought Obama v McCain was going to end up 45/55 and the implications of that down ticket are horrendous for Repubs. What if the Repubs lost 50 house seats and 15 senate seats. If Chambliss is in trouble nothing is impossible. A friend of mine in GA, Republican, thinks Chambliss is done.

Chris - who are you following with Catholic field hockey (didn't see a "Cillizza" on the roster) - gotta be a CLOSE relative, no such thing as the casual field hockey fan in my experience (my daughter was a hockey-lacrosse-squash player in HS, ended up with squash in college) -- thanks, Andy Ross

Jim Himes wins my pick for what may be the closest race in the country. Of course, if the Wall Street collapse has hurt Chris Shays more than we realize, and this district probably felt it worse than any other in the country, then it will be an embarrassing career-ending loss loss akin to Nancy Johnson's (CT-05) blowout loss in 2006.

McCain was one of the "Keating Five," congressmen investigated on ethics charges for strenuously helping convicted racketeer Charles Keating after he gave them large campaign contributions and vacation trips.

Charles Keating was convicted of racketeering and fraud in both state and federal court after his Lincoln Savings & Loan collapsed, costing the taxpayers $3.4 billion. His convictions were overturned on technicalities; for example, the federal conviction was overturned because jurors had heard about his state conviction, and his state charges because Judge Lance Ito (yes, that judge) screwed up jury instructions. Neither court cleared him, and he faces new trials in both courts.)

McCain intervened on behalf of Charles Keating after Keating gave McCain at least $112,00 in contributions. In the mid-1980s, McCain made at least 9 trips on Keating's airplanes, and 3 of those were to Keating's luxurious retreat in the Bahamas. McCain's wife and father-in-law also were the largest investors (at $350,000) in a Keating shopping center; the Phoenix New Times called it a "sweetheart deal."

McCain was not convicted of any crimes, though the Senate concluded that he exercised "poor judgment." (Furthermore, he got off on some charges by a technicality -- that he was still in the House when he took those vacation trips, and so the Senate couldn't prosecute him. The House concluded that THEY couldn't prosecute him because he had moved to the Senate.)

'Large-scale, coordinated vote stealing doesn't happen. The incentives-unlike the incentives for registration fraud-just aren't there. In an interview this week with Salon, Lorraine Minnite of Barnard College, who has studied vote fraud systematically, noted that "between 2002 to 2005 only one person was found guilty of registration fraud. Twenty others were found guilty of voting while ineligible and five were guilty of voting more than once. That's 26 criminal voters."

Twenty-six criminal voters despite the fact that U.S. attorneys, like David Iglesias in New Mexico, were fired for searching high and low for vote-fraud cases to prosecute and coming up empty. Twenty-six criminal voters despite the fact that five days before the 2006 election, then-interim U.S. Attorney Bradley Schlozman exuberantly (and futilely) indicted four ACORN workers, even when Justice Department policy barred such prosecutions in the days before elections. RNC General Counsel Sean Cairncross has said he is unaware of a single improper vote cast because of bad cards submitted in the course of a voter-registration effort. Republican campaign consultant Royal Masset says, "[I]n-person voter fraud is nonexistent. It doesn't happen, and ... makes no sense because who's going to take the risk of going to jail on something so blatant that maybe changes one vote?"

Just because the Demos got a bunch of cash from limo-lib billionaires doesn't mean their campaign will succeed in the end. After all, Water World had a monster budget, but I heard only about 10 people bought tickets to see it. On the other hand...

If elected, Obama will strangle the America's economic recovery in the cradle. His proposed wealth redistribution programs will wreck citizen's incentives to innovate, work hard, and start new businesses. And with foreign governments much more wary of loaning Uncle Sam money, Obama will have to print money to pay for his new ethno-spoils system, thereby driving up the cost of everything. And new election laws will jury rig the system to keep Democrats in power for decades. Meanwhile, our country will continue its descent into third world status. We just don't have the human capital to fix our problems anymore, thanks to the last Democratic super majority (1965) who figured the quickest path to perpetual single party dominance was to elect a new people. Guess what, those new mostly third world people are here, and what a surprise it is that they are overwhelmingly voting for Obama. In 1963 the average IQ of US citizens was 102. In 2008, it's 96 and dropping. We now have parity with Uruguay. In 2050, we will have IQ parity with Malaysia (92). Welcome to the coming Idiocracy: Obama with his basement level LSAT scores and sophomoric socialism is it's perfect leader.

A Thirty five republican houseloss would be about right considering that the republican house voted for the Bush tax cuts even though it can been explained to them in depth why savings had to be raised and taxes held constant.

Neither they nor the President addressed savings.

The tax cuts plus running the war on terror on a credit card will on in infamy!

Maybe with a big enough rout by so-called "Democrats," those in Congress can start acting like REAL Democrats, instead of Rahm Emanuel corpo-crats. Failing that, people can get heartily sick of these DINOs and vote in some actual progressives. GO GREEN!

And with McCaincer's candidacy even more crippled than the wife he dumped for his beer heiress, any sign that a desperate Repiglican Party is urging voters to "show up at the polls and vote for us down the ticket to put a check on the 'Democrat' (sic) super-majority"? Probably not. That would 1.) Mean admitting they're defeated and 2.) Explaining something to "the base" that's more complicated than "Obama = Muslim." Any waterheads still stupid enough to vote Repuke now couldn't follow the logic.

I wonder if New York's 29th district should be up there. I live in Rochester (not in the district, which is mostly rural, although it includes Rochester suburbs) and have seen a flood of commercials for Eric Massa that make him look like a very affable guy, and just about nothing for Randy Kuhl. Moreover, in the last month I've taken long drives throughout the beautiful countryside and small towns among the Finger Lakes that are the rural heart of that district, and seen a lot more Massa signs on people's lawns than Kuhl signs. Is there any polling out there that might indicate how this race stacks up against some of the ones listed in the line?

I hope that we can get rid of our own neo-con Congressman Eric Cantor here in central Virginia. If we can get rid of him at the ballot box as well as next year the Stafford county state delegate Howell that keeps vetoing all the highway and public transportation projects then Virginia might be able to move out of the 1970s and into the 21st century.

Not mentioned in the commentary on 21. WA-8 is that Reichert also almost bankrupted the entire county by pushing for a death penalty case against the Green River Killer and then worked out a deal to give him consecutive life sentences without parole, meaning we had to pay for his bunged up investigation and still have our budget out of whack with his current deputy (now sheriff) bleeding us dry.

"Our economy is structurally sound for the long term"
George W Bush - Feb 11, 2008

"The American people can remain confident in the soundness and the resilience of our financial system"
Henry Paulson - Sept 15, 2008

"The fundamentals of our economy are strong"
John McCain - Sept 15, 2008

"The economy is fundamentally sound"
Herbert Hoover - October, 1931

McCain does not have the ability to fix this economic crisis. After declaring the fundamentals of the economy strong, he created a political circus in Washington by mucking up bailout negotiations; a deplorable campaign stunt, considering he and his political cronies helped cause the current meltdown.

It was McCain and his economic adviser Phil Gramm who pushed for the deregulation that helped lead to the banking crisis, and it was McCain's crony Rick Davis who had deep lobbyist ties to Freddie Mac. Don't let others be fooled by McCain's economic grandstanding because the reality is his policies and principles will only exacerbate our financial hardships.

McCain is being deceitful with his sudden populist message and support for regulation; his economic policies still favor our nation's wealthy elite.

It has been in the news for several days. One of the most interesting parts is it was built without and permits or paper work. It is only just being investigated. The house was even featured in a news piece a while back and Todd said he built the lake front house himself with a little help as he gave a tour. Well some investigation found where the help came from as well as materials. This actually makes the Steven's thing look tame. Palin has plenty to worry about. You could just do some googling and you will find the stories in the Alaska papers. This is only in the beginning stages but just the preliminary info sounds really really bad.

------------
popasmoke, that's quite an allegation to make without backing documentation. Got Link?

I'm also surprised MN-3 dropped off the list and assume Mr. Fix made an error. The reason being the RCCC has pulled it's ad buys on behalf of Paulsen. And not because he's way ahead. They are focusing elsewhere and letting Paulsen fend for himself. Advantage: Madia.

Good call taking KS-2 OFF the line. Republican challenger and State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins was found out skipping a number of meetings of the state's employee retirement fund directors, during obviously turbulent times for management of a large public investment fund. She had no explanation for her absences, and the "CPA" designation she habitually adds to her name has lost much of its persuasive power. Her generic GOP hyperbole – "my opponent voted in favor of raising all the taxes in the history of the world," is eliciting mostly yawns.

Sarah Palin may be going the way of Ted Stevens. Her $550,000.00 house it seems she got for free as a kickback from the same contractor she gave the contract to for multi million dollar sports complex. Palin may be on her way to the big house at some point when this is all over like her buddy Ted Stevens may.

Seriously, where is NC-08? Republican Rep. Robin Hayes nearrowly won in 2006 by 330 votes and Democrat Larry Kissell is back for another try. Polls have shown Kissell up and this is one district in North Carolina where Obama could have some seriously consequential coattails. Plus, the DCCC is committing some big money for Kissell. It might be close, but Hayes is finally going down.

I voted straight along party lines for the 1st time ever in '06, with no regrets maybe even with a bit of 'schadenfreude' in Bush's remarks about the guarantees he had received from his brain (Rove) and Cheney. (I believe he was told that the (R)Congress might be lost but the Senate will stay theirs.)

I'm independent, I want to vote for the candidate that will do the job best. However, My choices are such that I can vote for the Republicans that seem to be in a state of denial, who only reach out to the their base of Right-wing evangelists. Or again vote for Democrats. The only other candidate that is articulate about the issues, is running for a local office and belongs to the Green party. WOW... (D)'s will win Big.
º¿º

I'm a bit surprised that MN-3 has fallen off the line. New kid on the block Ashwin Madia (D) is polling ahead of Eric Paulsen (R) to win this open seat (Ramstad-R) in a moderate district. Perhaps that is indicative of the sea-change in the political climate, given The Fix's list of 19 R-to-D flips and only 6 D-to-R.

Freshman incumbent Michele Bachmann is in a tightenting race to retain her seat. Challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg (I kid you not) is the DFL nominee, who has also been endorsed by the Independance Party. IP candidate Bob Anderson is running, though without his party's support. In 2006, Bachmann won with just over 50% of the vote. Given the problems her party faces & the likelihood that Tinklenberg will earn some of the IP voters that went for Binkowski in '06, he poses a credible challenge to Rep Bachmann. This race is not frequently polled, though leaks have reported that one of the party's is showing only a 4 pt lead for Bachmann. In what should be a reliably republican district & the DCCC's pledge to support Tinklenberg, this race could be a Dem pickup.

Why no mention of CA-04 where Lt. Col. Charlie Brown is ahead of carpetbagging Tom McClintock? This is a very red district but Charlie almost dethroned John Doolittle 2 years ago. McClintock is a lightweight compared to Doolittle and due to his residency 300+ miles away, McClintock isn't even allowed to vote for himself.

I notice many of those for whom Chris feels are vulnerable are from swing states: Ohio, Florida*, Pennsyvania. States where Obama has been gaining strength - so which comes first the presidental candidate or the local representative? I would think the that presidential candidate would help the local representative, but not the other way round.

* I think that we can agree that the one Democratic district in Florida is a special case: given that neither side is particularly good at avoid sex scandal.

40 years in the political wilderness for worshiping false idols. Republicans took out a 'contract ON America' and succeeded in destroying it's economy, it's foreign policy, it's environment, it's health and welfare. Good riddance!

Government has forced it's self on the boards of all of Americas' surviving largest financial institutions.

In the Brave New World of absolute unchecked power, those who seek credit for housing or business will be obliged as a precondition to getting any sort of financing , to swear allegiance to the 'Democratic' party.
This is already how mortgages are being facilitated through ACORN.

The "Joe the plumber" bottom in the Dow Jones Industrials tells us America looked over the Dodd/ Pelosi / Frank / Obama precipice and into their Abyss and said; "no thanks".

Joe will go down in American history as the man who single handedly stopped a Communist coup d'ete by telling Obama "You can't have the money out of my pocket for my American Dream so you can redistribute the wealth".

The market is signaling in it's forward forecasting that ;
1) the recession / depression that everyone is expecting will not occur.
2) Mc Cain will win and taxes won't go up.

the right has a lot of individuals who have already declared themselves to be the enemy of the likely new president. they'll spend their days as they did during the clinton administration, looking for ways to sabotage or embarrass barack and implement their agenda, which is, more or less, a warlike stance with the rest of the world, violence as a first resort, power to the military industrialists, oil companies and ultrawealthy, and the use of patriotic symbols where empirical evidence is needed. basically we still have a nation that's 25% fringe by the standards of western civilization, willing to convert the nation to a theocracy, and to subvert science while they're doing so. success here would be reducing that number to 10% of the population.

I understand why you have Wisconsin's 8th up there, but it's not going to change this election. Kagen's up nearly 10 points now in recent polls, and Gard just hasn't been running a very good campaign. The final nail in the coffin is the NRA endorsing Kagen (which is bizarre by all accounts).

why would Americans reward the party that started this economic mess...
why would Americans reward the party that waked out of congress when oil was about to hit 5 dollars a gallon...
why would Americans give ultimate power to a party that will grant citizenship to every illegal and tax us to pay for it...
Why would Americans do any of this, why...

On 10/16/08 Judy woodruff interviewed four Republican and four Democrats who watched the third debate. No one agreed! Each had an entirely different points of view.

One lady was clearly more authoritative. I identified with her. WHY? My wife and i have watched every Republican, Democratic and Presidential debate. We studied the candidates. We caucused for McCain BUT WE WILL VOTE FOR OBMAH!

McCain has worked his way up the Republican ladder over 25 years. He clicks with voters from Arizona. THEY RE-ELECT HIM! Time in a position does not necessarily equal experience.Many Americans are not qualified to be where they are. We all have wondered who did they know, who are they related to etc.?

The real McCain DOES NOT SUPPORT THE VETS OF AMERICA, is clueless about the economic problems in America, has had many thoughtless comments, has encouraged racist views and encourages hatred! McCain does not live a Christian life. McCain associates with people most us would avoid. McCain wants 95% of Americans to obsequious while he gives the wealthiest 5% of Americans more tax breaks!

It really does not matter that Palin is appearing on SNL. What matters is many American will be viewing and making up their minds from a stupid comedy show about President... and now we learn how very fragile Palin is. Don't let her watch the news. It's depressing... I'm NOT SURPRISED the GOP prospects continue to grow dimmer!

ARE ROGUE ELEMENTS FROM WITHIN A DANGER TO OBAMA AND BIDEN AND DEMOCRACY ITSELF?

The McCain-Palin campaign has used official and unofficial invective to declare an open season on Sen. Obama. The threats issued by the rally crowds are now being denied in some quarters, such as The Drudge Report.

Congressional leaders should speak out and demand that the enforcers of the law of the land live up to their sworn oaths and fully investigate who is behind these threats.

CABINET SECRETARIES WITH AUTHORITY OVER U.S. SECURITY FORCES MUST TAKE ACTION FROM WITHIN...

THE DANGER IS THAT A ROGUE ELEMENT WITHIN THE SECURITY FORCES MAY BE PART OF THE PROBLEM.