In addition to the UK-wide referendum on electoral reform, this Thursday voters in Wales will have the opportunity to say which political party they wish to govern the country for the next four years. While coverage of the National Assembly for Wales elections has been overshadowed by murmurings from Westminster, this election is arguably the most important in Wales's recent history.

With newly enhanced powers, the next assembly can fully explore its direct lawmaking authority over devolved areas such as health, education and economic development, meaning that elected representatives will have more control than ever before over the country's progress. Given the considerable potential to implement change, the four party leaders should have burst on to the campaign trail to declare with an emphatic roar that they and only they can make Wales great. But this has not happened.

Of course, all four parties have made the same hackneyed promises, claiming they will improve education and reduce unemployment faster and more efficiently than their counterparts. But there have been no moments of brilliance; no sparks of certainty that have enabled voters to either make or reflect on a decision. Instead there has been a complete dearth of substantive policy discussion. Even the televised leaders' debates, which proved so influential in last year's general election, have been lacklustre affairs.

Plaid Cymru's leader and present deputy first minister, Ieuan Wyn Jones, comes across as a nice man, a welcome guest at a summer barbecue, but not someone with the strength to be first minister. And with the Cameron-Clegg cloud hanging over Nick Bourne (leader of the Welsh Conservatives) and Kirsty Williams (leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats), it is understandable why Welsh Labour (led by Carwyn Jones) remains the most popular option in opinion polls.

However, though currently part of a coalition government with Plaid Cymru, Carwyn Jones refuses to enter discussion about potential for another deal, stating simply: "We'll cross that bridge when we come to it." Considering that since the first assembly elections in 1999, Welsh Labour has also governed in coalition with the Liberal Democrats (1999-2003) and as a minority government (2003-07), Carwyn Jones is struggling to conceal a confidence bubbling below the surface that has, no doubt, been exacerbated by some polls placing Labour close to the 50% mark. Labour may be en route to gain five more seats and win a majority for the first time, but it must be remembered that under the current electoral system – an amalgamation of first-past-the-post and proportional representation – this will be extremely difficult. Stifling debate about a potential coalition at this juncture prevents transparency, which would inform voting choices. Of course, nobody votes for a coalition, but it must be considered a real possibility, especially if Welsh Labour's confidence proves to be misplaced.

Welsh Labour has experienced a surge in popularity, something Carwyn Jones attributes to "a real anger at what's happening across the UK with the coalition in Westminster", claiming that "people see us as a counter-balance to what is happening there". But, surely, to capture the imagination of the Welsh citizen, a campaign should be based on more than exploitation of a dislike for the UK's Conservative-led coalition? Popularity should be founded on genuine enthusiasm rather than the perceived lack of options. Soaring support for Welsh Labour following the 2010 general election should have given the party impetus to clearly define what it would achieve if it maintained power, rather than to take Labour votes for granted. The party's election campaign is, generally, a disappointment. The vague notion that it is "Standing up for Wales" says nothing about the practicalities of what must be done and, after 12 years in power, a trite political slogan seems lazy.

Welsh Labour has to show that it will effectively utilise the new legislative powers for good. If it does get an overall majority, it must prove that it was deserved, rather than simply the result of discontent with a government across the border. While Welsh Labour's campaign has been broadly effective, it has failed to inspire or reignite interest in Welsh politics in a way the party was poised to do, which could be detrimental in the future. Support by default will wane if the party does not demonstrate it is a credible choice.

The result of the March referendum was deemed a positive change to the country's political landscape, but is the potential outcome of the election likely to herald a prosperous era in Wales? And given the hostile relationship between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru, in the event of a coalition, who should strike a deal with the former?