AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N 104.0E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM NORTH OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 290213Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLCC WITH WEAK BANDING. A 290212Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL WITH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER WATER NEAR TAU 48 TO 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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The Deep Depression over central Bay of Bengal moved further north-northwestwardswith a speed of about 33 kmph during past 6 hours, and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today,the 08th December, 2017 over westcentral Bay of Bengal near Latitude 15.0 ºN andLongitude 86.8 ºE, about 510 km south-southeast of Gopalpur and 610 km east-southeast ofMachilipatnam. It is likely to maintain intensity of deep depression for about 12 hrs andweaken gradually into a depression during subsequent 12 hrs. The system is very likely tomove north-northwestwards and reach north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coastsaround 9th December morning as a depression.

Weakening off the Odisha coast... JTWC has issued final warning, while IMD also downgrades to Depression from Deep Depression.

IMD:

The Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal moved north-northeastwards with aspeed of about 11 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the09th December, 2017 over northwest Bay of Bengal near Latitude 19.5 ºN and Longitude86.7 ºE, about 90 km south of Paradip and 280 km south-southwest of Digha. The system isvery likely to move north-northeastwards along & off Odisha coast towards West Bengal andadjoining Bangladesh coast. It is very likely to maintain its intensity during 24 hours &weaken gradually into a well marked low during subsequent 12 hours.