Trainers

About this study/key findings:

Covers all subsonic turboprop and jet aircraft used primarily for training and ground attack missions.

This is the smallest market in the Teal Group coverage universe, and is shrinking further still. Shared trainer fleets, outsourced training, and better simulator technology are all hurting demand. The only promising development is the arrival of two new planes without “B” trainer derivatives, the F-22 and F-35.

Even before these negative trends, trainers were the smallest turbine-powered aircraft market—worth between $900 million and $1.5 billion per year. Over the next ten years the market will stay at about this level. Teal Group forecasts a world market for 1,484 turbine trainers worth $11.6 billion over the next ten years, down (and up) from 1,199 worth $13 billion in 1996-2005 (all in constant 2006 dollars).

Despite the sluggish market, there has been a proliferation of indigenous trainer designs, with small production runs, high unit costs, few export orders, and few industrial skills learned. BAE’s Hawk and Hawker Beechcraft’s T-6 are the only players with critical mass.