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Volume 23, Issue 5,Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher

Monday Morning January 9th, 2006

Radio News ®

Lehman negative on radioNew Lehman Brothers analyst Anthony DiClemente has begun his official coverage of the radio stock sector - - and doesn't see much to excite him. He's giving a thumbs up to CBS, Univision and Radio One, but isn't recommending the other radio stocks. "Despite the Broadcasting sector having declined approximately 17% in 2005 versus a 3% increase for the S&P 500, we believe broadcasting stocks, in general are currently overvalued," DiClemente wrote in his first note to investors on the Broadcasting sector. After seeing only flat revenues for radio in 2005, he's looking for only 1% growth in 2006 "and beyond." As for his favorites, the analyst sees CBS as a buy, despite CBS Radio having to replace lost revenues from Howard Stern, due to easy TV comps and the O&O TV group being able to monetize network ratings gains. Univision's growth is also seen as being driven by television, with its World Cup rights and inclusion in Nielsen's mainstream ratings. That leaves Radio One as his only real radio "buy," which he thinks hasn't yet been rewarded for growing revenues in its Urban niche faster than its general market peers. Even there, part of the reasoning for his enthusiasm about Radio One is that the market has failed to give value to its non-radio station assets, TV One and Reach Media.

RBR observation: There has been plenty of negative to go around from '05 and spilling into this New Year and the only way radio is going to work its way out of this mess is from the top of these companies down to the street where the day-to-day troops work. The Wall Street saying applies - The Fish Stinks at the Head. We know national is all but a gone and with New Media here today radio will need to gather all its strength and tools to do hand to hand combat. CEO's now must be held accountable. First recommendation - give your GM's and their sales force the budget to upgrade training for today's business environment. Loosen up the wallets and supply the tools necessary to compete. Let the PD create by exploring new talent and formats.

Yes, Sirius has doubled since Stern signedOne reader questioned whether the 34 million shares of Sirius Satellite Radio stock that Howard Stern is getting today (1/6/05 RBR #4) has really doubled in value to 220 million since Stern signed his deal with Sirius. After all, RBR reported just last week that Sirius' stock price fell 12% in 2005 (1/3/05 RBR #1). The math does, indeed, work. Just before the Stern deal was announced, Sirius closed at 3.87 on October 6, 2004, which works out to about 130 million for the stock in his contract. Of course, the terms of the contract were laid down a few days earlier and the value for accounting purposes, 110 million, was likely based on an average price over a set period of time. (Sirius had already begun rising on rumors of a Stern deal.) Juiced by the Stern hype, Sirius finished 2004 at 7.62, up 141% for the year. So, while the stock price backed down over the past year, the current value of the stock being transferred to Stern and Don Buchwald today is, indeed, twice what it was valued at when the contract was signed in October 2004.

Clear Channel ducks
do-not-call chargesWLTW-FM in New York was subject to an attempted class action lawsuit for using a prerecorded automated tele-blast to invite listeners to sample the station. A judge held that this simple invitation was not a violation of the new do-not-call rules. However, another company (a non-broadcaster) didn't get off so easy. In the Clear Channel case, a district court judge held that a pitch-free invitation from a radio or television station is OK, and that the Supreme Court has twice deferred to the FCC on the matter. In the other case, the Federal Trade Commission is hitting FMFG, Inc. with a 900K fine for violating do-not-call. The adjustable beds marketer allegedly was calling and asking people to participate in a survey - - a perfectly legal proposition. It stopped being legal when it segued into a sales pitch. "This should be a warning to all telemarketers," said Lydia Parnes, Director of the FTC's Bureau of Consumer Protection. "You can't evade the Do Not Call Rule by disguising sales calls as surveys."

RBR observation: One of the fears before DNC was implemented was that telemarketers would run fake surveys to pull an end-around. As satisfied members of the d-n-c list, it's good to see that the FTC is actively guarding against the practice. And we don't know how other satisfied members of the d-n-c list feel about it, but we would not be happy to pick up the phone and get a recorded message from your radio station. You would be identifying yourself not as a station to be listened to, but as an unwanted interloper to be avoided. Please, find some other way to get our attention.

Alito airwars figure to eclipse last twoThe mere prospect of openings on the Supreme Court inspired 250K worth of broadcast advertising last year, according to the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law and the Justice at Stake Campaign. Another 1.3M was spent sparring over John Roberts, and another 325K was invested into the brief run of the ill-fated Harriet Miers nomination. Already, 650K has gone into the battle over the nomination of Samuel Alito, split 54%/46% in favor of approving his nomination. "Everything we hear suggests that this will be the biggest ad war since the Robert Bork nomination," said Deborah Goldberg, director of the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. "This could be a key moment for education about the Supreme Court or just another partisan mudbath." Releases are flying from a wide variety of public interest groups on both sides, and the better-heeled among them are also announcing impending ad flights. Almost everything spent to date goes back to mid-December or earlier following a holiday truce. But that is expected to change soon.

RBR observation: Cable news outlets seem to be a venue of choice to get national exposure. Like the election of 2004, where advertising was hot in swing states, and not in others - - location will be a key for any locally-targeted flights, where radio has its best opportunity to get in on the fun. The key - - be in a state with a moderate, or swing senator on the Judiciary Committee. Particularly a swing senator up for re-election. And even more particularly, a swing senator up for re-election who is a Democrat in a red state or a Republican in a blue state. Or be in Pennsylvania, where Judiciary Chairman Arlen Specter (R-PA) lives.

Indecency: TV catches up to radio
in complaints, but not finesThe last time the total number of specific radio programs which drew citizen indecency complaints was greater than that of TV and cable combined was 2001. Since then, the two video media have always taken the lead. Broadcast TV by itself had significantly more objectionable programs than radio in 2003, and was in almost a dead heat with radio in every other year since 2002. Since 2000, however, radio has taken the lion's share of heat from the FCC, picking up 32 notices of apparent liability (NAL) while television has been hit a paltry four times. Although many viewers are probably not aware of the rules, cable presents a much more difficult target than radio or television, since indecency regs are pretty much an over-the-air concern only. Cable is insulated by its status as a subscription service knowingly purchased by its customers.

RBR observation: The FCC was widely expected to release decisions on a large number of radio and TV cases all at once in order to attempt what many think impossible - - the provision of meaningful indecency guidance for the programmers of America's airwaves. They did not meet the rumored December 2005 deadline. When the decisions are made public, will TV start to close the gap on radio, which has borne the brunt of regulatory wrath to date? We can't wait for this one to hit the streets.
| See the indecency chart here |

Wall Street Media Business Report TM

Emmis on deck todayThe next earnings report cycle kicks off this morning with Emmis, as always, first to report. That's because of its unusual fiscal calendar. The figures Emmis reports today will be for its fiscal Q3 which ran from September through November 2005. Due to the well known weakness in radio ad sales, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes reduced his estimates just ahead of the report. He's expecting radio revenues to be up about 3.5% to 76 million. While that's better than the industry average, it's still below the 5% growth he'd previously forecast. For all of Emmis, including TV and publishing, Wienkes is expecting revenues to be up 5% to 99 million, with EBITDA up 3% to 29.5 million.

RBR observation: RBR always in particular pays attention to Emmis as they come closer to their year end and soon begin a new fiscal year but more today as Emmis is now returning to the pure radio play as they have shed most of their television stations. It will be important to hear if CEO Jeff Smulyan will outline where monies will be allocated for growth of Emmis radio for his new year. RBR remembers spring 2002 when Emmis mildly mentioned for their new year 2003 that No Capitol Expenditures would be allocated - which to us at RBR was the first real sign of a recession. Emmis to us always shows a map of what is to come for the rest of the radio business.

Ad Business Report TM

New corporate brand identityWorldSpace Satellite Radio announced the launch of its new global brand identity and corporate logo. With the introduction of its new tag, "Turn on Your World," the brand identity and corporate logo reflect the company's commitment to deliver a unique, personal global satellite radio experience to its current and future customers. "Today we are introducing a new brand identity and corporate logo that better convey what WorldSpace stands for: a company that delivers the most diverse, commercial-free content and high-quality audio programming, virtually anywhere and anytime within our vast coverage areas," said Judith Pryor, SVP/Corporate Affairs, WorldSpace. "This rebrand is an important milestone for WorldSpace as we extend our reach and solidify our position as an international consumer satellite radio service provider." "Turn on Your World" will be used in future marketing and product packaging materials.
| View samples of the new WORLDSPACE brand identity |

Ruby Tuesday moves to Brouillard Communications
Ruby Tuesday announced it has awarded its advertising account, with estimated annual gross-billings of 60 million, to WPP Group's Brouillard Communications NY. The selection process was led by Brad Blum of BLUM Enterprises. "We look forward to the fresh creative insights and depth of experience that the team at Brouillard will bring to Ruby Tuesday, as they help us take our brand to the next level," said Sandy Beall, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Ruby Tuesday. "We chose Brouillard because of their ability to connect to consumers through their outstanding creative ideas and first-rate production values."

Media Business Report TM

iBiquity taps auto PR specialistWith BMW still the sole automaker seemingly interested in putting HD Radio in its cars-even after almost every Detroit station has been carrying HD Radio for years now--iBiquity Digital has appointed Kermish- Geylin Public Relations to be its communications agency to work with the automotive media. The goal? To get HD Radio in the cars. In most major markets, the egg-HD broadcasters-is there. Now iBiquity needs the chicken. According to Jeff Jury, iBiquity COO, "KGPR's history was a key consideration for this decision. KGPR has been a specialist in the automotive world for more than 20 years." KGPR President Mike Geylin, a 27-year automotive publicist, will lead the iBiquity team. "This is one of those ideal accounts," he said. "My background includes providing communications counsel in both the automotive and the consumer electronics fields, a perfect preparation for helping expand HD Radio broadcasting presence in the market."

Media Markets & Money TM

Is this some kind of a joke?An ownership roster which includes a lord, a lady and a baroness is flying its banner and hanging its shield at an AM station on the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola. When juxtaposed with a company called Professional Humor Inc. (PHI) on the ownership page, you would think it's some kind of joke - - but it turns out that the buyers are indeed listed as Scottish peers at the website of the Scottish Baronage Registry. The station is WECM-AM, licensed to Milton. The value of the deal is placed at 220K - - seller Worldlink Technologies Group will get the balance after PHI pays off the outstanding balance on a note owed by Worldlink to Faith Baptist Church. Miami businessman Baron Camilio Agasim-Pereira of Fulwood has written two humorous books, which is where the licensee name comes in, although the Baron is not listed in the ownership lineup. It does include Baroness Maxine Ann Agasim-Pereira of Fulwood, Lady Sarah of Fulwood, Lay Yaalit of Fulwood and Lord Elio of Fulwood.

Closings from all over* Univision has closed on its 90M stock deal for KLOK-AM/KBRG-FM San Jose from Entravision. Univision is returning Entravision stock to that company in exchange for the stations, thus whittling down its stake in Entravision to 19.8%. The DOJ wants the stake down to 15% by the end of March.
* Media Services Group tandem George Reed and Eddie Esserman report that the big four-FM buy in Richmond by Dan Savadove's Main Line Broadcasting is completed. The 25M acquisition involved sellers MainQuad Communications and Richmond Broadcasting, and included WJZV-FM, WARV-FM, WCUL-FM and WBBT-FM.
* Kalil & Co. notes that Univision has also moved in at KVBE-FM Fresno, which it bought from Pappas for 10M. Univision now has two TVs and three FMs while Pappas retains a pair of TVs.
* George Reed of Media Services Groups says that Citadel has completed one of its New Orleans moves, closing on a 7.5M deal for WKSY-FM in Picayune MS. Seller is Guaranty Broadcasting Co.
* P.R.S. Broadcasting/Key Broadcasting is done playing in Peoria, says broker Ed Henson, who ushered through the sale of WPRS-AM/WACF-FM to Midwest Communications in a transaction valued at 2.55M.

Washington Media Business Report TM

Washington State journalists want better shieldAlthough a journalist shield law was a hot topic at the federal level in Washington DC in 2005, most states already have some form of a shield law on the books. Now that battle is moving to the other Washington, the Pacific Northwest state. Its Attorney General Rob McKenna is proposing such a measure that would provide "...absolute protection from disclosing confidential sources and qualified protection from disclosing their notes, photographs and other materials," according to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. The Western Washington chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists is protesting that the proposal does not go far enough, and points next door to Oregon for a better model. Over there, all material not already put in print or on the air is protected (a provision which may well have spared former New York Times reporter Judith Miller some jail time).

Entertainment Media Business Report TM

Entravision's KZMP-FM launches
La Tricolor in Dallas"La Tricolor 104.9" features a broad scope of regional Mexican music from artists such as K-Paz de la Sierra, Sergio Vega, Los Horoscopos de Durango and Ramon Ayala. "La Tricolor 104.9" will also simulcast on Entravision Radio's KZMP-AM, which also serves the Dallas/Ft. Worth market.

PRI expands HD Radio portfolio Public Radio International (PRI) has added of BBC Mundo to its lineup of public radio programming. Produced by BBC World Service, the 24/7 Spanish-language service features a variety of programs such as "BBC Enfoque," the flagship news-analysis program, "BBC Mundo Hoy," a weekday news and current affairs program that creates an unprecedented forum for the exchange of views and opinions across the Spanish-speaking world, and "BBC Enlace," a new interactive broadcast that connects Spanish-speaking listeners throughout the Americas.

Internet Media Business Report TM

Yahoo! announces Go TVIn the next few months Yahoo will be debuting its Yahoo! Go TV, a new product that will bring the Internet to PC-connected TVs. Go TV integrates consumers Internet services, including video search and photos, into the television. Yahoo! will also look to make the company's music offerings available through this new service. Go TV will also improve consumers' ability to navigate and find all the content available on their television. For example, users will be able to use their remote control to see what's playing at their local theater or share pictures from a recent vacation with friends. The service will be available to through a downloadable application that will run on any PC connected to a TV and work with any remote control.

RBR observation: We're not sure how this service will prompt anyone to run out and connect their PCs to their TV sets. Usually, these two ubiquitous devices are far apart in the home. However, the Yahoo community is large and who knows, they may get a few people willing to run these long cords.
| See full list of features here |

Clear Channel to launch music VOD serviceClear Channel will begin testing a free, ad-supported music VOD service tomorrow with between 2,000 to 3,000 music videos from top artists at Warner Music Group and Universal Music Group featured on some of its radio station websites. A third label is reportedly likely to join as well. The effort adds to CC Radio's podcasting service for some of its stations.

Monday Morning Makers & Shakers

Transactions: 11/28/05-12/2/05Apparently the average station trader was still to full of turkey and various trimmings to attend to business during the final cusp week of 2005, in which November segued into December. There were only six deals, and EMF spent well over half the money on two transactions noted below.

Week one ends with gains2006 is off to a strong start on Wall Street. As expectations increased that the Fed is about done with rate hikes, the Dow Industrials rose 77 points, or 0.7%, to 10,959 - - its highest level since back in 2001.

Radio stocks also had another up day. The Radio Index rose 0.099, or 0.1%, to 184.476 - - a year-to-date high for the third time in four days. CBS was a strong performer, with its Class B stock up 3.3% and Class A 2.8%.

Radio Stocks

Here's how stocks fared on Friday

Company

Symbol

Close

Change

Company

Symbol

Close

Change

Arbitron

ARB

38.62

+0.24

Hearst-Argyle

HTV

24.10

-0.05

Beasley

BBGI

13.45

-0.02

Interep

IREP

0.37

unch

CBS CI. B

CBS

27.23

+0.87

Jeff-Pilot

JP

58.22

+0.45

CBS CI. A

CBSa

27.15

+0.75

Journal Comm.

JRN

14.03

-0.02

Citadel

CDL

13.56

+0.13

Radio One, Cl. A

ROIA

10.61

+0.05

Clear Channel

CCU

32.63

+0.41

Radio One, Cl. D

ROIAK

10.61

+0.07

Cox Radio

CXR

14.18

-0.03

Regent

RGCI

4.66

-0.09

Cumulus

CMLS

12.85

-0.21

Saga Commun.

SGA

10.94

+0.05

Disney

DIS

24.74

+0.33

Salem Comm.

SALM

17.68

-0.15

Emmis

EMMS

20.69

+0.14

Sirius Sat. Radio

SIRI

6.54

+0.15

Entercom

ETM

30.91

+0.45

Spanish Bcg.

SBSA

5.22

-0.04

Entravision

EVC

7.02

-0.10

Univision

UVN

31.04

+0.49

Fisher

FSCI

42.04

+0.01

Westwood One

WON

16.58

+0.28

Gaylord

GET

44.49

+0.31

XM Sat. Radio

XMSR

27.95

+0.66

Bounceback

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Below the Fold

Internet Media Business ReportYahoo! announces Go TVNew product that will bring the Internet to PC-connected TVs...

Entertainment Media Business ReportPRI expands HD Radio portfolioAdded of BBC Mundo to its lineup of public programming...

Washington Media Business Report
Washington State journalists want better shieldThe battle is moving to the other Washington...

Media Markets & MoneyIs this some kind of a joke? An ownership roster which includes a Lord, a Lady and a Baroness...

Radio Media Moves

TeshMedia Group
adds and promotesThe TeshMedia Group, home of The John Tesh Radio Show, GTS Records, and The Sellecca-Tesh Foundation, announce the promotions of two of their key staff members, as well as the creation and hiring of a new position, Web/Interactive Producer. Scott Meyers has been elevated to VP/Entertainment for The TeshMedia Group, as well as Executive Producer of The John Tesh Radio Show. Betsy Chase has been elevated to VP/Programming for The TeshMedia Group, as well as Executive Producer of radio show. Bill Perry has joined The TeshMedia Group in the newly created position of Web/Interactive Producer.

Beasley ups Joe BellBeasley Broadcast Group has named Joe Bell to General Manager of Sports Radio WQAM-AM and Market Manager of WQAM-AM and WKIS-FM Miami. In his new role at 'QAM, Bell will oversee the sales, programming and promotional activities. Bell assumes his new positions, having been the GM of WKIS-FM for the past 6 years.

NYC Prime Radio
Time for Lease
7 days a week available p/t-f/t Business, Foreign language, religious, Health, Infomercials accepted. 212-769-1925 [email protected]TV & Satellite time also available. Station Inquiries welcome

More News Headlines

RBR condolencesPremiere loses VP/SalesLast week Premiere Radio Networks lost a very valuable ad sales chief in Tom Perry, VP/Sales for the Midwest. He was the manager of their Chicago office and has moved on to an Internet venture.

Ramona Bell passesLate night talk legend Art Bell's beloved wife of 15 years, Ramona, died unexpectedly 1/6 after an asthma attack. At present, the exact cause of her death has not been determined. It apparently took place during her sleep. Both she and Art own an Oldies FM station in Pahrump, NV and a translator in Vegas. From George Noory's Coast to Coast AM site: "Until her death, Art and Ramona Bell had not been apart a day since they were married. Mrs. Bell had suffered from asthma for years, and took her normal steps to control the attack, which occurred sometime last night in Laughlin, Nevada where the Bells were taking a brief vacation. Ramona Bell was 47 years old."

TVBR - TV News

Political hit dropped
Q3 revenuesWith no federal election to pump up results, the TVB reports that local broadcast TV revenues (national and spot combined) fell 11.7% in Q3 of 2005. Add in network (-12.6%) and syndication (+11.2%) and the TV industry was down 10.2% for the quarter. As you'd expect, the category with the biggest drop in Q3 was Government & Organizations, which includes political ads. It was down 54.8% from a year ago. But all-important Automotive was also down, falling 9.8%. See today's TVBR Stats for details by category.

TVBR observation: Go ahead and cry now because Q4 is not going to register any better. The holidays did not shine that bright to make any difference when the books get closed on 2005. TV has got to begin to think less clutter and multi-platforming or making allies with local media partners to bring an ROI to the advertiser. If you do not think as TVBR does then view the data from your TVB as it says the story - Not pretty.
| View the Chart |

January RBR/TVBR Digital Magazine

2006 - Time Waits
For No One!Exclusive on Clutter
What have we done???Ms Jean Pool, EVP/Director of North American Operations for Universal McCann and Chairman of the Media Policy at the AAAAs outlines and truly kicks all in gear - "Just why is it we're hell bent on irritating the very people that we are trying to sell our products and services to? Clutter is the death of the media." - page 12 Solutions Magazine

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January Issue of RBR/TVBR

RBR Radar 2005

Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

XM facing Sirius challengeXM fell just short of its 2005 subscriber goal of six million, but says it's now over the mark. The explanation from the company is that sales through the holidays would have put XM over the target, but some units weren't actually activated until after the New Year began.

RBR observation: Note that both satellite radio companies are predicting that they'll add about three million subscribers this year. But given their relative positions, that means that Sirius is expecting to have twice the growth rate of XM, just as it did last year. Of course, we at RBR will be watching another metric even more closely. Both companies have also told Wall Street that they'll reach cash flow break even this year. We wait to see if that happens. But don't you just love how Wall Street gulps down the excuses of both XM and Sirius. Time to hold Wall Street gurus accountable and their firms. 01/06/06 RBR #4

How much growth in 2006? Not muchAfter her previous comments that there is no light at the end of the tunnel for radio it's not surprising that Wachovia Securities isn't looking for a lot of growth in 2006. Forecast for radio revenues to rise 2.3%. Only one percentage point (100 basis points) is attributable to growth in core business, with the remainder split between Clear Channel - - 80 basis points as it laps a full year of LIM comps - - and political, good for 50 basis points. As for that core growth, it is coming from "slight increases in advertising rates" - - but that assumes stable inventory levels. That could fall if stations lard up on inventory, but might rise if spot loads are cut further.

RBR observation: 2.3% ain't great, but it's a lot better than the flat showing that radio is almost certain to post for 2005 when the final month is tallied. And we have to admit that 2.3% is a lot more realistic than the 4% growth that Universal McCann's Bob Coen is forecasting for radio in 2006. Remember back when we were discussing when radio would get back to "normal" growth of around 7% a year? Anyone want to place a bet on what year that's going to happen? Be prepared for a hard year and stay with RBR as we will be by your side every inch of this long walk.01/05/06 RBR #3

'05 - Tough year for radio stocksWall Street traders beat up on radio stocks in 2005 - - and not without justification. Clear Channel went through some major restructuring in 2005. RBR's Radio Index began falling in January and never looked back. By the time the year was over, our index of 15 companies whose main business is radio had fallen 21.1%. The year's worst performers were Spanish Broadcasting System, which plunged 51.6% as investors punished the radio company severely for announcing plans to enter TV as well, and Interep, a penny stock which dropped 52% in the face of a terrible year for national sales and some prominent client defections.01/04/06 RBR #2

2005: A TV year
best forgottenIf you made money on TV stocks in 2005, you must be one heck of an investment guru. Only five of the 35 stocks that TVBR tracks daily were up for the year. It appears that the best way for a TV company to boost its stock in 2005 was to sell itself. Liberty Corporation has a deal pending to sell the entire company to Raycom for nearly a billion bucks. And Emmis Communications rose because it spent much of the year selling off its TV assets, with a couple of deals yet to be announced, choosing to focus on the radio business. The year's biggest winner was McGraw-Hill, driven by its educational and financial data businesses, rather than its small TV station group. All in all, we're sure most CEOs of public TV companies would like to forget about 2005.The rest is history.01/04/06 TVBR #2

Sales ManagerReno Radio Representatives is seeking candidates. The FM station is one of the markets best rated and the company encourages both women and minorities to apply.See Radio Careers

TVBR Searching for 2 ProsTo join the best TV business publication in the media B2B today. Searching for one (1) Top flight Editor that does not need direction and one (1) Top Experienced Sales person that knows how to Sell/Market quality and wants to make money. Team work expected. Only the pros need apply as TVBR's expansion is now. Confidentiality honored by TVBR publisher Jim Carnegie (813 909 2986) Email qualifications to [email protected]