EIU Global Forecasting Service

A major cyber-attack cripples corporate and government activities

Moderate probability, High impact; Risk intensity =

There is a risk that the frequency and severity of cyber-attacks increases to an extent that corporate and government networks could be brought down or manipulated for an extended period of time.

Analysis

There has been a spate of recent cyber-attacks over the past year that have affected numerous global networks, including the so-called Wannacry and Petya attacks, although the damage done so far has been relatively contained. Cyber-warfare covers a broad swathe of varying actors, both state-sponsored and criminal networks, as well as differing techniques. Many of the recent attacks have centred on the use of ransomware, which seeks to make financial gain by exploiting network vulnerabilities. These attacks could well be part of wider efforts by state actors to cripple rival governments and economies. This includes efforts to either damage physical infrastructure by cyber-attack or gain access to sensitive information. A major and widespread attack would shake consumer faith in the security of the internet and put at risk billions of dollars of daily transactions.

Conclusion

Were government activities to be severely constrained by an attack, or its physical infrastructure damaged, the impact on economic growth would be even more severe. Thankfully, the recent attacks have also highlighted that in many cases the impact can be mitigated by fairly basic cyber-security techniques. However, if they represent a test bed, worse could easily follow.