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For Merkel and Europe, it’s a summer of love: Burman

German chancellor Angela Merkel rises in polls as continental voters turn away from far right — and Trump.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel seems to be having fun at the German parliament on June 22, 2017. Perhaps it's because her polling numbers point to a fourth term.
(Markus Schreiber / The Associated Press)

BERLIN—As Europe heads into what is expected to be a record hot summer, many of its leaders are basking in an extraordinary glow of political good fortune, or perhaps it is good luck.

Either way, with global relations rocked to its core this year by the chaotic U.S. presidency of Donald Trump, they’ll take it.

Here in Germany, Angela Merkel has an 11-point polling lead in her campaign to win a fourth term as chancellor. Her party currently stands at 36 per cent; far down the list is Germany’s far-right party at only nine per cent. In neighbouring France, newly elected President Emmanuel Macron — Merkel’s new best friend — has just led his party to an overwhelming majority in France’s National Assembly.

Perhaps foreshadowing Germany’s vote in September, Europe’s far-right parties have fared poorly in recent elections in Austria, the Netherlands, Britain and, most recently, France. In addition, economic growth throughout much of Europe is expanding faster than projected.

That wasn’t what many observers predicted for Europe in 2017. To the contrary, there were fears that the Brexit vote in Britain last June and Trump’s victory in November would usher in a period of far-right, nationalist politics.

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But that has not happened. Polls suggest that Trump’s disruptive presidency has horrified most Europeans and has made them more likely to vote for leaders whom they see as moderate.

This has meant an apparent changing-of-the-guard in terms of the traditional leadership of the western alliance. A deepening relationship between Germany and France — between Merkel and Macron — will have serious implications. Instead of Trump, these European leaders will increasingly be seen as the most credible standard bearers of the world’s liberal and democratic order.

That prompted some American observers, and Trump critics, to speculate that Merkel — as Barack Obama once seemed to suggest — could be the new “leader of the free world.”

Within Germany, with all of its history, that is not seen as realistic. That is perhaps why a Franco-German partnership is regarded as more viable in defending the democratic liberal order.

Ulrich Brueckner, a professor specializing in European integration at Stanford University in Berlin and California, says that Germany’s role — “as a country of engineers” — is to work with others and defend the rule of law.

In an interview, he said: “As nice as it is to have a shining star, young and energetic, who gives sentimental speeches, it doesn’t fix a thing and Angela Merkel knows that…. Having Merkel be the last woman standing when it comes to this, it’s good to have her. But she cannot fix the problems of the European Union or the problems of other countries. She should not even try — and she wouldn’t.”

Toward the end of this week, European leaders met in Brussels and there was clearly a bounce in their step. This burst of optimism even extended to one of Europe’s most serious challenges, Britain’s Brexit vote.

As negotiations began over the details of the proposed “divorce,” European Council president Donald Tusk suggested that it’s not too late for Britain to change its mind and remain within the European Union. Quoting lyrics from a John Lennon song, Tusk said: “You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.”

But his remarks likely fit into the same category as that other bit of breathtaking Brexit news this week.

When the Queen opened the new session of the U.K. parliament on Wednesday, she wore a hat decorated with an arc of papal blue flowers each with a yellow disc at its centre, and this created a storm on Twitter.

In the words of the right-wing Daily Mail newspaper, her hat looked “suspiciously like” the European Union flag, prompting the BBC to quote another Twitter posting: “Nice to see queenie dressed as the EU flag.”

However, in this resurgent European summer of 2017, it will likely take a few more cold winters before we know whether Queenie and John Lennon were actually onto something.

Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com .

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