Moonee Valley Racing Tips for Friday, November 2nd

November 2nd 2018, 5:46pm, By: tim_tips

We have eight races on the card as we head towards the first day of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington tomorrow!

The track is a Good 4 with the rail out 7m.

MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 3 Kaplumpich

Best Value: Race 7 Jackpot Johnny

RACE 1

There’s been a huge go on Mellors here, who opened $6.00 and is now the $2.10 favourite. He’s had three starts this prep for three second placings and has been beaten half-a-length or less in all three. He looks the natural leader here and with the rail out 7m will take some catching. Tour Down Under looks the value at $8.50. He backed up a nice trial with a solid effort on debut to run 2nd at Cranbourne. He’s still open to plenty of improvement and remains fairly unexposed. Be Instant was good first up while Lope de Field gets blinkers on for the first time and did go forward last start. Weir applying the blinkers is generally something to really take notice of.

TIP:

Value: Tour Down Under $8.50 Sportsbet

RACE 2

Looks a race between the two at the head of the market but these small fields have the potential to spring surprises. Our Sea Goddess has had two runs in Australia for a luckless 2nd placing and a win last start. She’ll go forward from the barrier and likely lead. From there, she’ll be hard to run down. She’s only had the five career starts so looks open to further improvement. Duecourse has also had two runs back from a spell for two minor placings. Has been racing in slightly tougher grade than Our Sea Goddess and draws well to likely take the back of the favourite. Royal Applause has done nothing this prep but gets blinkers back on which catches the eye.

TIP:

RACE 3

Kaplumpich was luckless first up before atoning for that defeat with a win over this track and distance two starts ago. He then was beaten 4.45L by Ranier last start. Ranier is favourite for a good race at Flemington tomorrow so you’d think that’s the formline to follow here. Should get a nice camp on the leaders and with any luck looks the one to beat. Jentico was very well backed on debut at Kyneton after a nice trial win at Cranbourne and she basically led all the way to win. Steph Thornton is a gun on frontrunners at the Valley and with the rail out 7m she gets her chance. Mumbles won impressively first up at Stawell. Obvious queries around that form but if they overdo it up front he could be the one swooping late at each way odds. Golden Physician will go forward and may give a good sight at big odds.

TIP:

Value: Mumbles $12 Bet365

RACE 4

Ugly race. I really don’t think there’s a great deal to Ocean Walzer’s form but the fact remains he’s won three of his past four starts and ran 2nd on the other, and meets a field of plodders here. Some query over the speed map which could see him planted all the way back near the rear, but he looks the obvious choice on paper. Interested by Under The Bridge who has had just the four career starts and improved out of sight second up. Up to 2500m now and the fact he won over 2100m at his second starts suggests he’ll be looking for the ground. Certainly keen to have something on at $8.50. Truly High keeps running consistently but is just struggling to get his head in front. He’s now only won two of his 16 career starts.

TIP:

Value: Under The Bridge $8.50 Sportsbet

RACE 5

Very interesting market move here for Nodoubtaboutit who was $12 out to $19 last start when finishing midfield over this track and distance. Perhaps barrier 1 tonight could see it land closer to the speed and they’re expecting a performance like its win two starts ago in Adelaide. I’m going against the market move and sticking with Roddandtodd who returned from a spell with a terrific effort behind Written Choice, who is absolutely flying and goes around a strong chance again tomorrow. This horse holds a 3.25L victory at this track and distance and from barrier 4 should get a lovely run tonight. $4.40 seems a good price. Domination bounced back to form last start after failing two starts back. Expect it to be ridden aggressively from barrier 14 in order to try and find the lead. If he gets across without spending too much energy, he’ll take some running down. The value in the race at each way odds is Our Luca, who is first up and has three wins at 1000m. Good first up record and this stable knows how to win races at the Valley.

TIP:

Value: Our Luca $11 Bet365

RACE 6

Only three worth mentioning here. Friar Fox has been absolutely smashed in betting and is now a $1.75 favourite. She gets a huge drop in grade tonight after finishing 2.5L off I Am A Star last start. She’s third up and up to 2000m now so should record her first win for the Weir stable, despite the ugly draw. Rebellious Lord has hit form and recorded a comfortable victory over 1700m last start. Went close two starts back over the mile at this track and I suspect they’ll look to lead and give Friar Fox something to chase from the back of the field. Chestnut Charlie isn’t hopeless at big odds.

TIP:

RACE 7

Another shortie here in the form of Sir Kalahad who led all the way to record a convincing win at Cranbourne last start. He was first up on that occasion and had trialled well leading into it, and once he found the lead he never looked like getting beat. There’s a fair bit of pressure up front in this race but from barrier 2 he’ll obviously be looking to hold them all out and if he does, they probably won’t catch him. If they do really overcook it up front, Jackpot Johnny is a chance of rounding them up. He’ll be coming from a long way back given his wide draw, but he did exactly that first up at Morphettville when he motored home into 3rd. He’s got a good second up record and looks the value in the race at $11.

TIP:

Value: Jackpot Johnny $11 Bet365

RACE 8

Sticking with the Weir horse D’Aguilar here, who was well-backed on debut and justified the support. He only won a maiden at Donald and it was on very heavy ground, so there’s a couple of queries, but he doesn’t come up against any superstars tonight. With A Bit Of Dash comes over from Adelaide and has been well supported. She won well two starts ago and then went close again last start. Again, there is some queries with her given the 2kg apprentice on from a slightly tricky barrier and the horse only has three wins from 30 starts in its career. Tanto Bianco draws well and can figure and Bianajeuney is a knockout hope.

TIP:

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