Florida climate change: More traffic and pythons, fewer days at Disney

Kimberly Miller @KMillerWeather

Wednesday

Nov 28, 2018 at 5:09 PMDec 1, 2018 at 4:00 PM

A comprehensive diagnosis of how a warming climate is changing life on Earth includes a grim prediction for a Florida where fiercer hurricanes prowl, pythons gain northern terrain and routine tidal flooding triggers epic traffic jams from Miami to Jupiter.

The forecast, included in the Fourth National Climate Assessment released last week, provides varying degrees of climate calamity depending on how much humans reign in the production of greenhouse gasses.

But it makes one thing clear in the first sentence of the federally mandated, 29-chapter analysis; Earth’s climate is changing faster than during any other time in modern civilization and people are primarily to blame.

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“Global warming is part of the very fabric of our lives now,” said Andrea Dutton, an associate professor of Geology at the University of Florida. “The message is that it’s real, it’s here and we are responsible.”

Dutton spoke Wednesday during a briefing about the report’s Florida findings, which include specifics on increases in sultry overnight temperatures, sunny-day flooding spikes from sea level rise, and how much more time people will sit in their cars because of those spikes.

- In Florida, the number of nighttime temps above 75 degrees has increased between 60 and 80 percent since 1950.

- The additional hours people will be delayed in traffic because of high tide flooding is more than 625 million per year by 2060 when considering medium and high-end projections for sea level rise.

- Florida is also estimated to have a 1-in-20 chance of having more than $346 billion (in 2011 dollars) in property value below average sea level by 2100 under the highest projections.

The report released last week, produced by 300 scientists from 13 federal agencies, is the second volume of this year’s assessment. It builds on the first part’s climate science specifics to look at the societal and environmental aspects of climate change.

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While it doesn’t have an abundance of new information on climate change studies, it is a vigorous reinforcement of the findings, said Florida Climatologist David Zierden.

Florida's biggest worry

“Certainly, sea level rise is the most concerning for Florida,” Zierden said. “That’s a problem that won’t go away. It’s inescapable at this point.”

Florida’s rate of sea level rise is 20 percent higher than the global rate, according to Dutton. The report notes that under the highest greenhouse gas emissions considered, global sea level rise in excess of 8 feet by the year 2100 “cannot be ruled out.”

“By 2050, many Southeast cities are projected to experience more than 30 days of high tide flooding regardless of the (emissions) scenario,” the report says.

The Southeast Florida Regional Compact on Climate Change stresses that South Florida's sea level rise could be faster than the global rate because of changes in the Gulf Stream current.

The compact is projecting 6 to 10 inches of sea level rise by 2030 and 14 to 26 inches by 2060 (above the 1992 mean sea level).

In the long term, the compact projects 31 to 61 inches of sea level rise by 2100.

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Rising temperatures were also noted as a concern in the report. The annual average temperature in the contiguous U.S. has increased by 1.2 degrees over the past few decades and by 1.8 degrees from the beginning of the last century.

Additional increases in of about 2.5 degrees are expected over the next few decades.

Get ready for higher electric bills

In Florida, just two months over the past three-and-a-half years have averaged below normal temperatures. Rising temperatures means gains for some invasive species, such as pythons, a drain on budgets with higher electricity costs, and potential tourism pitfalls if hotter days make lines at Disney World unbearable.

“We are unprepared for extreme heat events,” said Todd Sack, a Jacksonville-based doctor who serves on the board of Physicians for Social Responsibility. “If your utility fails, where are you going to go?”

South Florida has already seen that extreme heat can kill. After 2017’s Hurricane Irma, 14 people living in a Hollywood nursing home died from overheating when the electricity in their facility failed and there was no backup to power the air conditioning.

President Trump said he is skeptical of the climate assessment’s findings and doesn’t believe the economic impacts will be as severe as what it touts. While the release date on Black Friday raised some eyebrows, Zierden said “there was no sweeping this under the rug.”

“This is a process mandated by legislation and has been ongoing for 18 months to two years,” he said. “It has been open for public review and comments.”

The final two chapters of the report are dedicated to reducing climate change risks, and throughout the more than 1,000 pages kudos is given to states and local governments looking for solutions to their individual challenges.

Florida’s strict building codes in South Florida put in place after Hurricane Andrew are commended for reducing losses from Hurricane Irma by 72 percent.

Also applauded was the Southeast Florida Regional Compact on Climate Change, which includes Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. It’s climate action plan was one of the first government partnerships to address climate change in the country, the report says.

“I absolutely believe that a lot of action on climate change, especially adaptation, can be done at the local and state level,” Zierden said. “That’s a good trend and should continue.”