Crime falls in Illinois 6th year in a row

Crime in Illinois dipped again last year, continuing a remarkable and historic six-year run in which fewer people were murdered, robbed or raped, according to figures new from the state police.

With the number of reported crimes falling by 2.7 percent in 2000, Illinois bucked preliminary findings released in May by the FBI that showed crime nationwide was unchanged.

In fact, Illinois has witnessed a steady decline in reported crime for much of the past decade. The cumulative effect since 1990 has been a 19.7 percent drop in crime, while the state's population has increased by nearly 1 million people.

The figures, compiled in the 2000 State Police Crime in Illinois Report, show a drop in each measurable category -- murder, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft and arson.

Law enforcement authorities, legislators and sociologists often have debated what has the greatest influence on bringing down crime. But they largely agree that the streets are safer for several reasons: a robust economy, an aging population, successful community policing programs, stricter sentencing laws that lock up criminals for longer terms and a waning crack epidemic.

"Everybody has their favorite idea or program for why crime is down. If I knew the answer why, my book would be a best-seller," said Wesley Skogan, a Northwestern University professor and author of the book "Community Policing, Chicago Style." "But clearly, the strong economy has played a significant role."

Like Chicago, suburban Cook County, DuPage County and Will County saw a decrease in crime. However, Kane, Lake and McHenry Counties did not.

Because of its sheer size in relation to the state and other communities, Chicago, which experienced its fewest murders in a quarter century, helped pull down the state's overall crime numbers by reporting a 5 percent drop in crime.

Not leveling off as expected

Stumping criminologists and others who were predicting the decrease in crime would level off, the Chicago Police Department on Friday reported that preliminary figures for the first six months of this year indicate that crime is still heading down.

David Bayless, a department spokesman, said that as of Friday, this year is on course to have fewer murders than last year.

"There is probably a bottom threshold to our crime," Bayless said. "If our early numbers for the first six months are any indication, we are not there yet."

In suburban Cook County, overall crime fell by 1.6 percent last year. But the four categories of violent crimes -- murder, sexual assault, robbery and assault -- shot up 8.5 percent, the first increase in three years.

Suburban, statewide numbers

The suburban communities' overall crime was pulled down by a big drop in reported thefts, considered a less serious crime that includes pickpockets, breaking into vending machines and shoplifting.

According to an analysis of crime figures supplied by state police, Markham, a town of 12,620 people in southern Cook, had the highest violent crime rate of any community in the state with more than 5,000 residents.

Markham's violent crime rate was 88 offenses per 1,000 residents.

The next three highest violent crime rates belonged to communities in Downstate St. Clair County: East St. Louis, Washington Park and Centreville. Chicago had the seventh-highest violent crime rate in the state.

Among communities in the collar counties, University Park in Will County was the sole municipality among the top 10 for highest violent crime rates.

No year-to-year comparisons

For the first time since it has been compiling crime statistics in 1974, state police did not provide year-to-year crime rate comparisons. Last week, officials acknowledged that the agency had relied on faulty population estimates last year that resulted in inaccurate crime rates for dozens of communities.

The errors were discovered when state police received U.S. Census Bureau data this year to compile crime statistics for 2000.

The errors gave some places, such as Chicago and Cicero, higher crime rates, and others, including communities patrolled by the McHenry and Kane County sheriff's offices, lower crime rates than were correct, state police said.

Law enforcement authorities and others have long recognized flaws in accurately gathering crime data.

Gerard Ramker, research director for the Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority, said some categories of crime are undercounted, such as criminal sexual assaults. Some estimates say only 10 percent to 30 percent of all sex crimes nationwide are reported to police.

In other instances, communities with busy shopping centers might appear to have high crime rates simply because of the number of shoplifting incidents reported by stores, he said.

Under the state's method of compiling total crime figures, a homicide counts the same as a shoplifting incident.

Better counting sought

Still, Ramker said, the raw numbers of crimes reported by more than 900 police agencies to the state each year serve as a barometer of criminal activity.

"This is fraught with a lot of issues," he said, "but it's the best we have."

To get a richer, more detailed picture of criminal activity, the federal government has developed the National Incident-Based Reporting System, a sophisticated computer system that changes the way crime is cataloged.

Traditionally, crimes have been recorded on a hierarchical basis. For instance, if someone steals a car, commits a burglary and kills someone, that group of crimes generally is recorded as the most serious offense: murder. Under the federal incident-based system, each crime -- car theft, burglary and murder -- is counted.

In Illinois, state police recently received an $800,000 federal grant to begin demonstration projects with the McLean County sheriff's office and Waukegan police to determine if the incident-based reporting system could be used statewide.