RED SOX: Should Sox have waited to replace Ortiz?

Wednesday

Jan 11, 2017 at 8:30 PMJan 11, 2017 at 8:36 PM

The Red Sox signed ex-Texas first baseman Mitch Moreland in December as a replacement, but the stagnation of the market for hitters since then suggests that waiting to make a move might have been the best strategy.

Brian MacPherson, Providence Journal

Dave Dombrowski could have waited out the market in his hunt for a hitter to replace David Ortiz. Dombrowski even said he’d wait out the market.

“I figured we would wait to see what ends up taking place later on and who’s out there,” the Red Sox president of baseball operations said by way of explaining his reluctance to bid for Carlos Beltran and Matt Holiday on the first day of the winter meetings in December.

A day later, Dombrowski came to terms with ex-Texas first baseman Mitch Moreland, a hitter whose 22 home runs ranked him in a tie for 43rd in the American League last year. He’d changed his mind. He made a characteristically aggressive, targeted move.

The stagnation of the market for hitters since then suggests that waiting might indeed have been the best strategy, however. A Red Sox team that made a December strike to acquire Moreland finds itself unable to capitalize on the bargains that seem to be emerging in January.

Moving fast works well when a team needs to fill a significant hole with a significant piece — like when the Red Sox acquired pitchers Craig Kimbrel and David Price in swift succession last offseason. Such players tend to be in limited supply. Once they’re gone, they’re gone.

Waiting tends to work well when a team has a more minor need to fill — especially when the market is flush. January is where the bargains have always been. Waiting worked well for the Red Sox five years ago, for example, when they snagged Cody Ross for a mere $3 million. Ross slugged .481 for the Red Sox in what would prove to be the best season of his career. Waiting worked even better two years before that when Adrian Beltre fell into Boston’s lap. For just $9 million, Beltre hit 49 doubles and garnered American League MVP votes, and then netted a pair of draft picks on his way out the door.

Boston normally doesn’t have to worry much about bargains. But if Dombrowski and the Red Sox were close enough to the luxury-tax threshold to necessitate trading pitcher Clay Buchholz for a longshot prospect, waiting out the corner-infield market might have done them some good.

Moreland was at the top of Boston’s preference list entering the winter. That doesn’t mean, however, that there weren’t other options – many of which remain available.

Toronto’s Jose Bautista and Baltimore’s Mark Trumbo have seen their markets undercut by the draft-pick penalty that comes with the qualifying offer. As with Edwin Encarnacion, who signed with Cleveland, the Red Sox would have forfeited what now is the No. 24 overall pick to sign either Bautista or Trumbo.

Quite a few remaining free agents, however, are unburdened by the qualifying offer but nonetheless have fielded limited interest.

Houston’s Luis Valbuena remains unsigned; Valbuena can play three infield positions and slugged .459 last season. Cleveland’s Mike Napoli has been connected by reports to Texas but remains unsigned; Napoli hit 34 home runs for the American League champion Indians last season. Baltimore’s Pedro Alvarez remains unsigned; Alvarez slugged over .500 in a platoon role last season. Milwaukee’s Chris Carter remains unsigned; Carter hit 41 home runs last season but was non-tendered in November.

The list goes on. Houston’s Colby Rasmus, who would have provided some protection against a Michael Conforto-like step back by Andrew Benintendi, just got the same $5 million from Tampa Bay that Moreland got from Boston. Seattle just traded corner outfielder Seth Smith and his $7-million salary for a pitcher who had a 5.42 ERA last season and will earn $11 million next season.

Moreland is hardly a bad signing, especially at just $5 million for one year. He slugged better than .480 just two seasons ago. He’s a tremendous defensive asset at first base. His left-handed bat helps break up the righties that otherwise dominate Boston’s batting order.

But the evolution of the market suggests that the Red Sox could have done better — or about the same while spending less money — had they not moved so quickly.

Dombrowski had hinted he was going to do that. He just didn’t follow through.

Brian MacPherson may be reached at bmacpherson@providencejournal.com. Follow him on Twitter at @brianmacp

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