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"As these new governments take real steps to address public demands for political participation and democratic institutions and remain committed to [counterterrorism] efforts, we judge that core al Qaeda and the global jihadist movement will experience a strategic setback," Mr. Cardillo said.

He warned, however, that any prolonged instability or missed promises by the new governments would give al Qaeda and its affiliates more time to establish networks, attract support and potentially engage in operations with less scrutiny from local security services.