First, political developments have fractured the west as an ideologically coherent entity. Close co-operation among the high-income countries was largely a creation of US will and power. The centre of that power currently repudiates the values and perception of interests that underpinned this idea. That changes just about everything.

Second, modern western ideals of democracy and liberal global markets have lost prestige and appeal, not just in emerging and developing countries, but in the high-income nations themselves. While no alternative economic system has yet won the day, the appeal of xenophobic populists and authoritarians (often the same) has risen.

Third, managing the world economy, the global commons (notably climate) and security issues, demands co-operation between high-income and emerging countries, above all China. The old days of domination by the leading high-income countries are over. Securing co-operation among such diverse countries is extremely hard.

I think it fair to say that Martin and I do not always agree with each other but his analysis and warnings on some issues are astute and well stated. This is one such occasion. As he suggests, we are at the end of a political era. I agree. But as Gramsci would have it, the new is yet to be born. And that is why we live in dangerous times.

I’m currently reading a book I picked up in an idle moment called ‘The Fatal Strain’ by one Alan Sipress, which is about the efforts of the WHO to contain outbreaks of Avian Flu which is expected at some stage to morph into an easily contractable human virus which will sweep the entire globe and cause deaths on pandemic scale as influenza does periodically. Increased levels of passengers whizzing about in aeroplanes is likely to make the spread much faster than it has been in the past.

The nurturing ground for new flu strains is predominantly the poorer countries of Asia where health facilities are poor and where the interspecies contact, ducks and geese, chickens and perhaps pigs are commonly close.

These poorer countries are becoming increasingly uncooperative in the WHO response because increasingly they are twigging that WHO having isolated a strain hand over their samples to the big Pharma companies who then want to sell back vaccines to the third world at prices they cannot afford, having first ensured that there is plenty of vaccine for their own precious populations should the disease break out there.

If the so-called developed nations are not prepared to pay for the groundwork in isolating and containing new flu strains, and share the benefits it could be the death of us. Literally in this case.

It will be a very expensive way to learn the shortcomings of reliance on markets to solve social problems.

Influenza is apparently the No.1 killer of humanity outstripping even malaria.

I haven’t quite got to the end of the book. Maybe there’ll be a ‘happy ending’ , but I’m not optimistic on that score.

I may be mad, or drunk, but I feel more positive than I have for a while. China accepts absolutely the fact of man-made climate change, &, influenced perhaps by the poisonous nature of the air in most Chinese cities, has made the decision to change.
The Trump administration ‘s love of fossil fuels is not shared by the biggest, most populous,most important, states. California has its own green targets which it will, I’m sure, meet.
India’s cities are, if anything, more poisonous than China’s. They must change, if only because continuing pollution destroys their biggest money spinning asset, the IPL
Finally, we are about to see a massive growth in Africa. This will be lead by mobile phone technology that allows the communication previously denied by the Channel Islands*. This will certainly revivify the World’s economy.

*Until now most African states’ aid money has been passed, via various trust structures, to the Channel Islands, after which it was spent in London on Knightsbridge & Chelsea flats, Harrods & Selfridges accounts, Eton & Harrow fees & Daimlers. Because of this, the roads, bridges, schools & hospitals that Africa requires have, generally, remained unbuilt.

Are we saying that the mobile phone, with it’s ability to increase the connectivity between the billions of people in the world, and hence information flow, will to future historians be seen as the single most transformative development in human history?
Move over the wheel!

Martin Kilgariff says:
January 4 2018 at 9:17 am
“Are we saying that the mobile phone, …… will to future historians be seen as the single most transformative development in human history?
Move over the wheel!”

It might be an exaggeration. But it might not aswell.

It is not a trivial thing that the entire continent of Africa (some regions of which have four growing seasons a year, and others have significant mineral resources) is leapfrogging a hundred years of technological development and able to communicate and distribute electricity without poles and copper wire.

Where the West is dumping outdated tech and pharma, China is building infrastructure. And investing in the shambles left by exploitative European colonialism.

Until a bit more of the Antarctic ice sheets has receded Africa is the hot development arena for the 21st century and the mobile phone is instrumental in making that possible.

The mobile phone with internet connectivity has also revealed the emergence of an astonishingly rapid, near cyborg level of deeply psychological, and disturbingly compulsive constant gadget-dependency – or voluntary enslavement.

Eriugenus-the effects of ‘intoxication’ might well have come in when you say: ‘Finally, we are about to see massive growth in Africa.’

Much of this growth is based around ‘land grabs’ by foreign investors who then earn rentier benefits from agriculture and property depriving local populations of democratic control of THEIR resources. A recent report states:

‘The African people face an existential threat. With the enthusiastic support of some African governments, foreign countries and companies and wealthy foreigners are rapidly taking over the productive lands in Africa and turning Africans into refugees and slave laborers in their own homeland.
Land grabbing is the contentious issue of large-scale land acquisitions; the buying or leasing of large pieces of land in developing countries, by domestic and transnational companies, governments, and individuals. While used broadly throughout history, land grabbing as used today primarily refers to large-scale land acquisitions following the 2007-2008 world food price crisis.’