The stock market has been on a meteoric rise over the last year or so, while precious metals have been on a downhill slope. This occurs because the market becomes comfortable, and quite frankly, greedy, as stocks continue to rise while interest rates remain at or near zero. Gold and silver stocks are mostly considered to be a long-term investment, and are relatively safe, but the allure of fast money compels investors to abandon the precious metals ship and climb aboard the risky, manipulated train of paper stocks.

It is a simple, inverse equation – stocks go up, metals go down. Stocks go down, metals go up. Do you believe that the current stock market gravy train will sustain itself? Or should we take steps to mitigate a massive market change and invest while metals are at their lowest levels in nearly half a decade?

The US economy is dead. The Fed has known this for a long time, but pumped it up to where it is now to draw in all the greater fools, the so-called big investors who have made money like honey from QE and ZIRP.

That didn’t take long. On Monday, the Dow was down another 326 points. Overall, the Dow has now fallen more than 1,000 points from the peak of the market (16,588.25) back in late December. This is the first time that we have seen the Dow drop below its 200-day moving average in more than a year, and there are many that believe that this is just the beginning of a major stock market decline.

Hayden’s Note:

As noted previously, and repeatedly, I believe that tangible goods are the most secure way of protecting your wealth. Whether talking of precious metals, or farmland, or quality implements, tools, firearms, or otherwise, tangible goods – those things that you can put in your hand and use – are of utmost importance in this age of economic uncertainty.

While I applaud the Bitcoin crowd, and even partake in it myself to a small degree, Federal Reserve notes, digital currency, bonds, bank notes, and stock market investments, otherwise known as “paper investments”, hold up very poorly unless you live your life in front of several computer screens, monitoring events in real-time, and work as a day trader.

According to a major bank, a pair of noted economists, and one controversial billionaire, 2013 will be a “year of terrible reckoning” for the stock market.

JP Morgan just released its outlook for the first quarter. Surprisingly, this regularly bullish company has reversed course and revealed an ominous chart that every investor needs to be alerted to.

As you can clearly see, stocks have retraced the pattern from the last two big market rallies (averaging over 100%), and now face a massive decline in 2013 (of over 50%).

JP Morgan isn’t alone in its stark predictions.

Hayden’s Note:

This is a must-read article. Additionally, by looking at the chart above, one can clearly see that from ’97 to ’00, it was a moderate uphill climb, followed by a very similar descent. In ’02, it took much longer to get to that high market rally point before descending much more rapidly than the previous fall. The ’09 ascent will likely not top off for several more months, suckering in more market-players before crashing faster than ever before.

A single mysterious computer program that placed orders — and then subsequently canceled them — made up 4 percent of all quote traffic in the U.S. stock market last week, according to the top tracker of high-frequency trading activity. The motive of the algorithm is still unclear.

The program placed orders in 25-millisecond bursts involving about 500 stocks, according to Nanex, a market data firm. The algorithm never executed a single trade, and it abruptly ended at about 10:30 a.m. Friday.

Hayden’s Note:

I hadn’t posted about high frequency trading, or HFT, in quite some time, so for those of you who have never heard of this flat-out manipulation, check out these articles:

To anyone still believing that capital markets around the world express something other than government policy, the latest news out of China may come as a surprise: “Beijing will buy more shares in China’s biggest banks, in an expression of support for the beleaguered stock market and most concrete state action to date to shore up confidence in the slowing economy.”

Hayden’s Note:

Those of you who despise capitalism or say that the free market doesn’t work need to step back and realize that this is not free market capitalism in action. This is croni-capitalism, or a corporatocracy. This is flat-out market manipulation in its most blatant form. Those corporations and stocks that fail should be left to fail, not propped up by governments. By bailing them out, they are conveying to the public, “Have faith! Continue to buy and invest!…don’t worry that this stock should have gone under. Put more money into it. Their failed policies and ideas will suddenly become great!”

Some mornings I wake up and wish the collapse would hurry up and happen so that we can have a chance at a real free market. ...

Either the YesMen have infiltrated Italy’s biggest, and most undercapitalied, bank, or the stress of constant, repeated lying and prevarication has finally gotten to the very people who know their livelihoods hang by a thread, and the second the great ponzi is unwound their jobs, careers, and entire way of life will be gone. Such as the head of UniCredit global securities Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy, and former Chairman of the Hungarian stock exchange, who has written an unbelievable op-ed in the Hungarian portal Index.hu which, frankly, make Alessio “BBC Trader” Rastani’s provocative speech seem like a bedtime story.

Only this time one can’t scapegoat Szalay-Berzeviczy “naivete” on inexperience or the desire to gain public prominence. If someone knows the truth, it is the guy at the top of UniCredit, which we expect to promptly trade limit down once we hit print.

Among the stunning allegations (stunning in that an actual banker dares to tell the truth) are the following: “the euro is “practically dead” and Europe faces a financial earthquake from a Greek default“… “The euro is beyond rescue”… “The only remaining question is how many days the hopeless rearguard action of European governments and the European Central Bank can keep up Greece’s spirits.”….”A Greek default will trigger an immediate “magnitude 10” earthquake across Europe....

Will global financial markets reach a breaking point during the month of October? Right now there are all kinds of signs that the financial world is about to experience a nervous breakdown. Massive amounts of investor money is being pulled out of the stock market and mammoth bets are being made against the S&P 500 in October. The European debt crisis continues to grow even worse and weird financial moves are being made all over the globe. Does all of this unusual activity indicate that something big is about to happen? Let’s hope not. But historically, the biggest stock market crashes have tended to happen in the fall. So are we on the verge of a “Black October”?

The following are 21 signs that something big is about to happen in the financial world and that global financial markets are on the verge of a nervous breakdown….

#1 We are seeing an amazing number of bets against the S&P 500 right now. According to CNN, the number of bets against the S&P 500 rose to the highest level in a year last month. ...

Like the U.S. Treasury, President Obama’s recent jobs proposal is bankrupt. Quite frankly, we weren’t counting on much. But that doesn’t mean we still weren’t disappointed by its burdensome emptiness.

The most remarkable thing about the President’s latest jobs creation plan has nothing to do with the actual substance – or lack thereof – included in the initiative. To the contrary, it’s the idea behind it that’s most noteworthy. In short, the President actually believes the government can use borrowed money to stimulate the economy.
If this were true, the trillions of dollars already spent would have produced an epic boom and job creation renaissance. By this point in the recovery, unemployment would be down and opportunities would be abundant. Obviously, none of these things have taken place. Instead, according to a recent Bloomberg National Poll, only 9 percent of the population is confident the economy won’t slide back into recession.

The government, as we’ve seen, is extraordinarily capable of spending boat loads of borrowed money. ...

While Buffett is forced to bailout America’s most insolvent bank, which just confirmed our prediction that it will need to raise capital (although this capital raise was far lass than what will be finally needed), Europe has realized that it has no kindly-looking, ukulele-playing, no-income-tax-paying billionaire equivalent to bailout Intesa, SocGen, UniCredit, etc, etc, oh, and tomorrow, the short-selling bank is supposed to expire. End result: DAX flash crashes, and no rebound yet.

Motorola shareholders will get $40 a share in cash, the companies said in a statement today. That’s 63 percent more than Motorola Mobility’s closing price on the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 12. Both boards have approved the takeover.

Larry Page, Google’s co-founder who took over as chief executive officer in April, is transforming Google into a smartphone maker to take on Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPhone and gain more clout in the wireless business. Motorola Mobility, under pressure to seek strategic changes by activist investor Carl Icahn, gives Google more than 17,000 patents the company can leverage in negotiations with competitors such as Apple.

Hayden’s Disclosure:

It’s a minor point, but I DO use an HTC Android-powered phone. I’ve also been a user of Google services since its inception. Furthermore, I hate the fact that I use anything Google related but am in awe of their dominance in various markets. ...

The guys (and chick!) over at Zero Hedge summed up the business day in a short, sweet fashion –

The Dow is down more than 500. The S&P is down 60. The VIX surges 35% to 32 the highest since June 2010. Implied correlation surges to the highest since last summer. ES volume surges to the highest since the flash crash. Europe is opening in 12 hours. Margin debt is near record high levels, and mutual funds have record low cash. Liquidations galore. Did we miss anything?

The last three years of global recession have dealt a major blow to American capitalist ideas trumpeted throughout the world on the value of “free markets.” Wall St has been revealed as a form of casino economy, with the bankster insiders gambling with other people’s, and eventually, the government’s money in the form of bailouts. As the Republicans in Congress, scenting victory in the 2012 presidential elections, hold a gun to the Obama administration’s head and rating agencies consider downgrading U.S. government bonds in light of Washington’s possible defaulting, many ideas around the world that previously seemed implausible because of the dominance of the U.S. economy are garnering renewed interest.

Not surprisingly, many of these concepts originate in countries not enamored with Washington’s influence, perhaps none so more than “Axis of Evil” charter member Iran, which has seen its economy hammered by more than three decades of U.S.-led sanctions. Now Iran is working a program, that, if it succeeds, could help undermine the dollar’s preeminence as the world’s reserve currency more effectively than a Republican filibuster....

It may be time for the CME to hike some coffee margins as prices for the legal drug are starting to get out of control. According to Dow Jones, Smucker has just increased its average coffee product price by 11% in its 4th price hike in just the past year. This, along with all other comparable deflationary developments (according to some) could not have been foreseen by anyone, and will lead to the Fed’s Elizabeth Duke discussing next year how, very inexplicably, America’s low and middle classes are forced to choose between espresso shots and toilet paper.

The food company, which also makes jams, jellies and Jif brand peanut butter, said the move is driven by sustained increases in green coffee costs. It disclosed similar price increases in February, August and last May.

The increase applies to such brands as Folgers, Dunkin’ Donuts and Millstone.

Smucker reported an 11% increase in U.S. retail coffee sales for the nine months ended Jan. 31, while profit during that period grew 12%.

Zero Sum trading (in which the banks make money and taxpayers lose it) continues: following previous reports of trading perfection at both D-grade trading “powerhouse” Bank of Countrywide Lynch, and FRBNY-lite JP Morgan, Goldman craps the bad by being the only big bank so far to post a trading loss day in Q1 (even if it was for $0-25 million). This is unacceptable. As a result SLP latencies will be cut from 0 nanoseconds to -10, as Goldman will proceed to a Tachyon based trading infrastructure. In beta tests, such “frontrunning to the future” trading has already posted solid results: in addition to the humiliating trading day loss, GS had 32 days with profits of “>$100 million.” And it still failed to impress… Now that HFT “girl around the block” Citi is no longer there for the taking by anyone with a growing liquidity rebate itch, this number will plunge.

Elsewhere, one wonders what caused the surge in daily trading VaR in the last days of March. Or perhaps at least someone appears to have made money on the Japan catastrophe....