Polling & predictions for the Holyrood 2016 Elections

Survation, 1st-2nd of May

With just two days to go until the election, the end is just about in sight. Having contributed a grand total of one third of all polls published over the campaign, Survation have just released their (presumably) last – and it’s a real head scratcher, according to my calculator.

Although the SNP are still on course for an increased majority according to this, it’s the second poll in quick succession – and only the third of the campaign – to have them on less than 50% of the vote. Still, with 27% over their nearest rivals, it would likely deliver them 66 constituencies, topped up by a mere 4 regional seats.

There’s a really perplexing result in the contest for second place. Despite coming in at 1% behind the Tories on the list vote, Labour would narrowly squeak a lead in seats. I can’t even imagine the kind of feeling such a result would provoke in either party, though I can imagine Davidson giving it absolute hell for leather in the media about having been denied their rightful position as the “main” opposition, which would be absolutely delightful from a party that still prefers FPTP to proportional representation and thus can’t really talk about distorted results.

Likewise, no satisfaction to be had for the Greens, who would – although trebling their number of seats – fail to displace the Lib Dems as the fourth party, instead coming in at a dead heat despite that 1% lead in votes. Somewhat surprisingly, after leading the pack throughout the entire campaign, Survation find themselves on the lower end of expected Green votes, with 7% the lowest they’ve recorded for the party this year. Following a similar inexplicable drop with Panelbase, the next 72 hours will be rather tense for both parties.

Worry too for UKIP, as up until this point Survation have been most positive about their chances. A sudden dip down to 2% doesn’t bode well for a party already hardly likely to win any seats – a sign, perhaps, that their absolute meltdown in Scotland has been noticed by their would be voters.