Monday, October 13, 2008

All done. For now. Predicting the Oscars is like making your bed in the morning... the work is never really done. As I was wrapping up I got to thinking about the Golden Globes and the Best Actress race. While there seems to be only 8 clearly definable contenders for Oscar's Best Actress at this juncture there's almost no one for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy except...

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married

and Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky

But who else? Most of the women who might land on Oscar ballots this year can't conceivably be shoved into that categorization. This might make the nominations truly interesting and mostly free of Oscar concerns.???Emma Thompson - Last Chance HarveyRachel McAdams -The Lucky OnesFrances McDormand -Burn After ReadingKat Dennings -Nick and Norah's Infinite PlaylistSarah Jessica Parker -Sex & The City: The MovieRenée Zellweger -Leatherheads??? & ???Meryl Streep & Amanda Seyfried -Mamma Mia!Tina Fey & Amy Poehler -Baby MamaFrances McDormand & Amy Adams -Miss Pettigrew Lives for a DayWith so few awards-friendly performances in the mix, this could be quite a low-stress / big-party night for the 5 or 6 comedic gals who snag this particular nomination. Who do you think those lucky plucky funny ladies will be?

55 comments:

Anonymous
said...

I really doubt that Academy members are still in mood for subtitles and "I've loved you so long" is not going to be big with Oscars, that's why I think Sally Hawkins will make it instead of Kristin Scott-Thomas, over whom she won Silver Bear at Berlin FF. And if they both make it, I suppose it's Kate Winslet to fall out (as much as I love her, that Revolutionary Road trailer doesn't give me much hope).

My predictions for GG Comedy nominees: Anne Hathaway, Sally Hawkins, Meryl Streep, Frances McDormand for "Burn After Reading" and Renee 'How come you've just written her full name?' Zellweger /she has even scored a nom for 'Miss Potter'/.

I really hope Meryl wins, not because her role in Mamma Mia! was so impressive, but because it would be incredibly awesome if she won the Comedy/Musical ánd Drama Golden Globes. Her speeches are the best.

anon 4:12 already corrected. Scott-Thomas has (arguably) the best reviews of the year. IF they can handle subtitles this year she seems risky to bet against. As for Winslet and Jolie. Jolie is the only one with detractors already (people who don't like Hathaway's performance are harder to find) and Winslet is already possibly running into troubled waters with two films opening so closely back to back one of which she is already (supposedly) not going to support. Which can be bad for business.

I really don't see how Sally Hawkins, Anne Hathaway, Sarah Jessica Parker (they love her) and Meryl Streep could miss out on a Golden Globe comedy/musical nom. I wouldn't mind Amanda Seyfried being the last one. She was great in Mamma Mia, and the film is a gigantic hit. So there's your five :-D

The Globes ADORE Sarah Jessica Parker. She's in for the "Sex and the City" movie. Then Meryl for "Mamma Mia!" (she'll be double nodded for this and "Doubt"). That leaves something random -- if they have long memories, then Tina Fey for "Baby Mama". If not, maybe they'll throw a bone to one of those "Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants" ladies. That plus Sally Hawkins and Anne Hathaway dueling it out for the win, though both are getting Oscar nominated. Hathaway might be pushed drama too.

Meryl is a serious contender for the Golden Globe for musical/comedy especially since mama mia performed so well in the foreign markets, after all this is the Hollywood FOREIGN Press we're talking about.

I know this post is on the musical/comedy race but Nathaniel, don't count Cate Blanchett out of the Drama race, she's been nominated 7 times in the past decade, which is a pretty strong statistic.

anon 4:26 i never claimed that Hathaway was a "lock" -- i'm actually worried about the potential snub already (i see most of the top 8 as being roughly equal right now... prior to all the films being out... for various reasons) and like i say in the commentary, sometimes Oscar doesn't go for crabby girls. They usually like them more tearful a la Jolie.

oh and anon 4:24 i do think Jolie will lose the Oscar. I can't imagine her winning given the non-beloved nature of the performance. People like the performance a lot, yes. But too win people have to be gaga for it and consider you #1. Plus she already has an Oscar so there's no "overdue" helping. If anything she's got the opposite problem of "overrewarded" --or at least she does if you believe what the pundits have been saying for decades: that the biggest stars (like Tom Cruise, Paul Newman, Julia Roberts, etcetera...) are usually made to wait a long time because they are so richly rewarded career-wise and there are jealousy factors.

I think Amy Poehler in Baby Mama gives one of the best performances of the year... male or female. Not because she was funny, but because she takes it beyond that and creates a vulnerable, relatable, and deceptively complicated charcter.

She won't get nominated, though, because 1. it's a comedy, and 2. the voters are just congressmen to the studio's lobbyists.

I've long thought Hawkins, Hathaway, Parker and Streep were locks at the globes.

Parker because obviously they love Carrie Bradshaw (how many globes has she won already? 4?) and there's usually a mainstream rom com hit somewhere in the globe mix. This year it's SaTC (which i think will be nommed for best pic, too, reviews be damned).

Streep because she's Streep, and it's a musical. Duh. Mamma Mia I think is a riskier bet for best pic, though I still think it'll make it, and Streep definitely will. She was nominated for She-Devil, after all.

And the other two are oscar players. So there you go.

I think the last spot could go to Seyfried (if they really like Mamma Mia), McDormand (for either of her projects), or perhaps Tina Fey (if she's able to ride her Emmy wave and Palin impersonation love-in right into the Golden Globes). Peohler, I guess, could make it, but I think Fey has a better shot since she's so hot right now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Tina Fey get all kinds of Globe attention this year.

And I'm totally with everyone else above who has said SJP should be in for a nom at the Globes.

I'll demur on Best Actress for now but, for Supporting, I think Penelope Cruz is nearly locked (even when Oscar voters don't like Woody, they tend to have a soft spot for his Supporting Actresses and Cruz's role is back to form in that department for the Woodster). I also think Viola Davis is pretty solid, all things considered. Taraji, Tomei and Winslet are much more vulnerable to shifting winds of opinion on their films.

That said, it does seem that Rachel At The Wedding is poised to be in the Little Miss Juno spot nomination-wise this year, so the women might benefit from some "coasting" there...

Burn After ReadingHappy-Go-LuckyMamma Mia!Rachel Getting MarriedSex and the City

Am I forgetting anything? Mamma Mia could miss, since it was so bad, but it was still a big mainstream hit, at the level of Hairspray and Prada, and lots of people LOVE it, so I think it's got as good as anything, unless it gets crowded out.

Actually, of this lineup, I could see Rachel Getting Married winning.

But oops, I forgot Slumdog Millionare... maybe that would bump Mamma Mia...

Hm... I am starting to think the last-minute-removal of Kate from my Actress Psychic (hinthintnudgenudge) ballot wasn't that crazy after all. (What with the first skeptical voices about Revolutionary Road and Rudin-Weinstein feud over The Reader.) Of course, putting Kerry Washington in her stead was, but never mind.

As for of the Globes, at this early point SJP is the only one I cannot imagine getting snubbed (six consecutive nominations for playing that very character already).

Hawkins should be a no-brainer seeing as I keep predicting her for an Oscar nom, but a performance in Mike Leigh's film nominated in the comedy category? Doesn't it seem, dunno, odd to anyone else?

And what do people think of Amy Adams's chances for Sunshine Cleaning rather than Miss Pettigrew? Does it have a release date yet?

Anyway, I think I'd go with Adams for SC, Hawkins, McDormand for Burn, Parker, and Streep.

Having seen "Last Chance Harvey," I'm pretty sure Emma Thompson will get into the Comedy/Musical category. It's a lovely little performance -- hardly a stretch for her, but a bit like an expanded version of her character sketch in "Love Actually."

Anne Hathaway will be nominated in Comedy/Musical, but am I the only one who think she really belongs in Drama? There's some real wit in the performance, sure, but I wouldn't call it a comic turn.

As for Oscars -- I totally see Jolie getting bumped off the list, and deservedly. Changeling is another Clint film that leaves me dry, and the editing is pretty horrible. If the movie goes down in flames, I expect Jolie to as well.

With Kidman, I see her getting in if Australia is huge, but that's a big "if". It it gets BP/BD like I'm predicting, she's in and will probably cause Scott-Thomas, Hathaway, and Hawkins to fight out the last 2 spots. If Australia fails, those three are all in.

Someone mentioned Cate Blanchett, but her role is barely lead and will totally be lost in the background as the film centers mainly around Pitt's character. That, and the fact that her role isn't baity... at all. She'll probably give a strong performance, but nothing deserving of a nomination.

Over at Awards Daily, one poster was saying that "Four Months.." is eligible this year according to AMPAS rules. It didn't get chosen as its country's entry for foreign film (like that Brazilian film (?City of God?) but it played in LA in January. Is this accurate?

Because then Anna Maria Marinca could be added to the Best Actress slate (and Best Screenplay, etc, etc.).

Drama:1. Streep: Duh!2. Jolie: They LOVE her. Three Consecutive Globes and four Nominations at 32...3. Hathaway: I convince me more that she's a la Nicholson in "about Schmidt"4. Winslet: The "if" factor. Sorry but I don't trust the RR trailer and Where's "the Reader"?5. Kidman: Even if Australia didn't fix well, is possible a considerable nominations at HFFA, a la Cold Mountain.If we have six: Kristin Scott Thomas / Melissa Leo: Two indie and very subte performances...

Comedy:

1. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky: The principal contender in this category2. Frances McDormand: I think she's in but for wich film? Burn After Reading or Ms. Pettigrew lives for a Day?3. Sarah jessica Parker, sex & the City: They NOMINATED her for "the Family Stone"...4. Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!: Duh! Again...5. Rachel Weisz, the Brothers Bloom: Even if she's supporting at OSsars, she could go lead for HFFA.If we have six: Emma Thompson, Last Chace Harvey: I don't know... but she's Emma Thompson

No, seriously! This is the same awards group that nominated Reese Witherspoon for Legally Blonde, Alicia Silverstone for Clueless, Sandra Bullock for Miss Congeniality amongst others. And Faris' reviews were nigh on raves even if the film itself was as kindly met. Perhaps I'm daydreaming, perhaps I'm not, but I really think she is a contender.

Or, if not her why not Katherine Heigl for 27 Dresses. Or Tina Fey (who's so hot right now as we all know) for Baby Mama. Or, hell, even Abigail Breslin for All American Girl got some good reviews. And perhaps we're all forgetting Zooey Deschanel for The Happening.

Actor Drama:1. Sean Penn, Milk: Almost a guaranteed nominee...2. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of benjamin button: They like epic films3. Viggo Mortensen, the Road: My dark Horse of the season...4. Frank Langhella, Frost/Nixon: I don't know his real chances...5. Mickey Rourke, the Wrestler: I don't trust him at HFFA... only if "The Wrestler" is a hitIf we have six: Hugh Jackman, Australia / Daniel Craig, Defiance: Two big stars in Hollywood projects.

Comedy:

1. Richard Jenkins, the Visitor: Maybe his film is too indie or too dramatic, but maybe he's only chances...2. Robert Downey Jr: Two big Hollywood projects, one lead (iron man) and one supporting (Tropic Thunder). Even two nominations is possible...3. Josh brolin, W: He's in this year's Charlie Wilson's War?4. Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading: He's hilarious and HFFA LOVES that performance. Plus: Bonus points for The Curious Case of Benjamin button.5. Ricky Gervais, Ghost Town: This category is weak this year so...if we have six: Dustin Hoffman, Last Chances Harvey: I don't know... but he's Dustin Hoffman

I don't quite understand why Tina Fey would be nominated for Baby Mama. Yes, she's having a hot year, but so was Katherine Heigl last year with the success of Knocked Up. KU made more money at the box office, and had more critical acclaim than Baby Mama possessed.

I think Meryl will make it in Musical and Comedy solely for the "We HAD to nominate a musical for the category's title sake." After all, they DID nominate Beyonce in the same category for Dreamgirls a few years back.

And I actually don't think the Aniston pick is that far off the mark. GG likes to have at least one "WTF" nomination.

But Heigl WOULD have been nominated if the category were thinner, like it it this year. Last year had a lot of comedies AND musicals and, well, musicals get preference (see: Nikki Blonsky and Helena Bonham Carter).

Clint Eastwood may get a scoring mention for THE CHANGELING. They won't resist forever.

And I'd be surprised if Desplat's BENJAMIN BUTTON score isn't among the five nominated. No weird Ang Lee sex scenes to keep him out this time, and those who were present at the scoring sessions speak VERY highly of the score.

For me, the comedy musical acting categories are panning out to look like (note, not convinced Hathaway or Jenkins will end up in comedy but we'll see):

Actor:

1. Dustin Hoffman-Last Chance Harvey (its such a weak year that this will be an easy get, they just announced that they're moving it into the AFI fest and it looks like they're taking this one seriously: http://www.incontention.com/?p=2358)2. Josh Brolin-W-This is an easy get, again, strong year and he's been having a big 2 years.

beyone those 2 its tricky...

3. Robert Downey Jr-Tropic Thunder (they'll push him lead here)4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman-Synechdoche New York (the movie will be met with mixed response but strong enough for him to get in with the weak field)5. James Franco-Pineapple Express (great place to honor his strong year that easy replacements would be Seth Rogen for Zack and Miri or if they can look over the flops of their movies, either Ricky Gervais in Ghost Town or Steve Coogan in Hamlet 2)