October 5, 2008

Still a map-changing election

Back in August I noted that this is a “map-changing election,” that is, elections that radically realign the electoral landscape by breaking toward one candidate (Obama in this case).

Despite all that’s happened in the last two months (Palin nomination, the conventions) it still looks like being a map-changing election. It has tightened up a little but still looks a likely Obama victory.

First here are the August numbers (from Pollster.com):

Now here are the numbers as of today, less than one month before the election:

Which position would you rather be in? Obama’s base is 250, and with 270 to win, he has to get just 20 of the swing state electoral votes, McCain has to get 107. This map shows that both Florida and Ohio are in play, but frankly Obama’s doing so well he could very well win without those states.

Remember that in this map above it’s yellow not if it’s tied but if the lead is less than five percent and that Obama is leading in many of them. For example, Ohio (20 EV) Obama is ahead by +2.8%.