Poll: Shift toward Democrats could be happening

By Keating Holland/CNN

ATLANTA (November 2) -- Fifty-two percent of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, while 48 percent of likely voters said they would vote Republican, according to a final, pre-election CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll.

That four-point lead for the Democrats
is well within the poll's sampling error, but it indicates that a possible
last-minute shift toward Democratic candidates may be underway. Voters have changed their minds in the weekend before previous
elections only to change their minds once again in the final 24 hours before
the polling places actually open.

Also, with 435 separate races for Congress underway, no single national poll can forecast the results. The bottom line is the election is still too close to call, which means that control of the U.S. House of Representatives may be up for grabs on Tuesday night.

The survey was based on interviews with 2,084 adult Americans, including 1,105 likely voters, conducted October 29-November 1.

Here are the results:

Likely Voters'
Choice for Congress

Democratic

52%

Republican

48%

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

What effect will the Monica Lewinsky matter have on Tuesday's election? Most
likely voters say they will not be sending a message about Clinton and
Lewinsky with their vote. And the number who say their vote will be a signal
of support for Clinton exactly matches the number who say they will be voting
against Clinton on Tuesday. That means that the pro-Clinton and anti-Clinton
voters may simply cancel each other out, leaving the election in the hands of
those who say that the Lewinsky matter will not affect their vote.

Clinton may give Democratic congressional candidates a slight boost nationwide , a far cry from 1994. Forty-six percent of all likely voters say they are more likely to vote for a
candidate for Congress who supports Clinton, while 40 percent say they are more likely to
vote for one who opposes the president. In 1994, a majority said they were
more likely to vote for an opponent of Clinton.

Lewinsky Matter Will Make
Your Vote a Message That You...

Support Clinton

23%

Oppose Clinton

23

Clinton not a factor

52

Asked of likely voters

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

More Likely To Vote For
A Candidate Who...

Now

1994

Supports Clinton

46%

39%

Opposes Clinton

40

51

Asked of likely voters

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

The public's changes over the weekend were a loss of momentum for the GOP more
than they were a gain for the Democrats. In an October 23-25 poll, 67 percent of
Republicans nationwide said that they were extremely or very motivated to
vote. Now only 59 percent feel that way, leaving the GOP in a virtual tie with the
Democrats.

Enthusiasm about voting has also changed. In late October, 51 percent of
Democrats said that they were less enthusiastic about voting than usual and
only 32 percent said they were more enthusiastic than usual. Now 39 percent of Democrats say
more and 44 percent say less. That puts them on a par with rank-and-file Republicans
nationwide. Thirty-nine percent of all Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting
than usual and 46 percent say they are less enthusiastic. The number
of Republicans who say they are extremely motivated or very motivated to vote
has gone down since last weekend, while that figure has held steady among
Democrats.

The election, however, does not appear to
be whipping up enthusiasm in either party and anything can happen in an
election with low turnout.

Extremely Or Very Motivated
To Vote This Year

Democrats

Republicans

Now

57%

59%

Oct. 23-25

56

67

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Enthusiasm About Voting

Democrats

Republicans

Less than usual

44%

46%

More than usual

39

39

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

More Enthusiasm About Voting
Than Usual

Now

Oct. 23-25

Democrats

39%

32%

Republicans

39

44

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Democrats' Enthusiasm
About Voting

Now

Oct. 23-25

Less than usual

44%

51%

More than usual

39

32

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Democratic candidates have a few minor advantages this fall. By a 46-37 percent
margin, Americans say that the Democrats will do a better job than the
Republicans of keeping the country prosperous. That's a switch from April,
when the parties were essentially tied, and represents a big change from 1994,
when the Democrats lost control of Congress.

Given the fact that two-thirds
say the national economy is excellent or good, that may help the Democrats on
Tuesday. One caution is that 69 percent said that the economy was getting better in March
and only 21% said it was getting worse. Today only 51 percent say things are getting
better, while 38 percent say things are getting worse.

Who Will Keep Country
Prosperous?

Democrats

Republicans

Now

46%

37%

April

42

43

Asked of all Americans

Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Who Will Keep Country
Prosperous?

Democrats

Republicans

Now

46%

37%

1994

38

48

Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Economic Conditions Today

Excellent/good

66%

Only fair/poor

33

Asked of all Americans

Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Economic Conditions Are...

Now

March

Getting better

51%

69%

Getting worse

38

21

Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

Bill Clinton's job approval rating is holding steady, but nearly half of all
Americans now disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. Earlier this
month, the public was split 47-46 percent over whether Congress was doing a good job.

Now 47 percent disapprove of Congress and only 44 percent approve. Significantly, likely
voters are even less willing to give Congress a positive rating than the
general public. But the current figures are nowhere near the anger Congress
faced as the 1994 elections approached. Just before that historic election,
only a quarter approved of the way Congress was handling its job.