Iran's Stake in the Mideast Crisis

To the outside world used to the heated rhetoric of its President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran might seem eager to jump at the chance to get
involved in the current conflict between Israel, Lebanon and the
Iranian-backed militant group Hizballah. But in fact, with its nuclear
dispute unresolved and the risk of confrontation with the U.S. still
looming, Iran can ill afford to play an active role in the escalating
crisis. The top leadership in Tehran is focused on settling the nuclear
issue diplomatically, and fears that if the mess in Lebanon spreads,
Iran's thorny negotiation track with the West could be derailed
altogether.

During Friday prayer, the classic platform here for
signaling policy to the world, there was no fiery bluster, just muted
condemnations of the recent violence. "I don't see Iran entering this
crisis militarily unless it's dragged in," says Saeed Laylaz, an analyst
and former official. Iran might get involved, analysts here say, only if
the conflagration widened dramatically, by Israel attacking Syria or
even Iran itself.

Iran's cautiousness might not be obvious to the
outside world, since Ahmadinejad rushed to warn Israel about the
consequences of extending its offensive to Syria: "[This] will be
equivalent to an attack on the whole Islamic world, and [Israel] will
face a crushing response," he said during a phone conversation with
Syrian President Bashar Assad, according to the official Iranian news
agency.

Iran may avoid getting drawn into the conflict, but that
doesn't mean Ahmadinejad isn't eager to exploit the moment to advance
his popularity in the Arab and Islamic world. While other influential
regional players like Saudi Arabia have tried to ease tensions by
calling on Hizballah to show restraint, Ahmadinejad's comments have been
aimed at raising the temperature. "Those who keep silent are complicit
in the Zionist regime's barbarism," he said in a public speech, a jab at
the refusal of Arab leaders to cheer on Hizballah. In an address the
next day, he said: "The Zionist regime's assault on Lebanon is a
violation against the people of the whole region."

Iran's television
networks, including its Arab-language station broadcast by satellite
around the region, carried extensive images of Lebanese casualties and
effusive coverage of Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrullah. "Ahmadinejad
always considers it his role to crowd-please in the Islamic world," says
Mohammad Atrianfar, editor of Shargh newspaper. "But this is rhetoric,
not actual policy."

As one of Hizballah's key patrons, it's
difficult to describe Iran as neutral in the unfolding conflict. Since
the Ayatollah Khomeini launched Hizballah in the early eighties to
spread Shia revolution, Western officials say Iran has kept contingents
of Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon, the most strategic area outside its
own borders where Tehran can exercise influence. Western diplomatic
estimates of how many are there and where exactly they are vary, but
several hundred Revolutionary Guards are believed to operate in the
Hizballah-controlled Beqaa Valley, providing operational training to the
movement's guerilla forces. For its part, Iran insists its aid to
Hizballah is limited to humanitarian and moral support.

The intimate
relationship between Iran and Hizballah has evolved since 2000, when
Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon freed the militant group to
expand the scope of its activities in the region. U.S. officials believe
Iran has looked increasingly to Hizballah as a tool to thwart the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process by encouraging the group to lend
operational support to Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Syria's troop
withdrawal from Lebanon last year has also reshaped Iran's dealings
with Hizballah, analysts here say. Before the Syrian withdrawal, Iran
and Damascus competed for influence through their various Lebanese
proxies, but now Iran is finding it to easier to funnel its support for
Hizballah via Damascus. "Iran and Syria are now standing behind each
other," says Laylaz. "Their strategy is more unified." Does this mean
that Iran micro-manages Hizballah or vets its major operations?
"Hizballah sees the need to confer with Iran," says Atrianfar. "But it
doesn't necessarily do so over tactics."

Back in the spring of 2002,
when the moderate government of then President Mohammad Khatami sought
to cozy up to the United States, Iran ordered Hizballah to call off its
rocket attacks on Israel's northern border. Iran's then Foreign Minister
Kamal Kharrazi flew to Beirut, and made an uncharacteristic public call
for Hizballah to "exercise self-restraint." Within days, the border went
quiet. But with an agitator like Ahmadinejad at the helm, Iran is more
likely to watch the conflict burn than help to put it out, all the while
playing to the crowds in the streets.