Summing up 2016 and prognosis for 2017

It has been a fantastic year for the bot! Looking back for my 2016 prognosis one year ago, I wrote:

“So what do I hope for 2016? Its not of any value to have financial goals, I will just try to improve the model, bot and risk management as much as possible and hope for the best… But walking into 2016 with much better starting point than in 2015, a reasonable guess would be to turn at least 4 MSEK, and reach a ROI of 1 %. If that’s the case it would mean a profit around 40000 SEK.”

The actual performance for 2008-2016:

I managed to increase both turnover and ROI, instead of the prognosis to turn 4 MSEK I turned 6.1 MSEK and instead of 1 % yield I got 1.2%. Increasing both of them gave me a profit of 75 865 SEK (instead of the anticipated 40 000 SEK).

Breaking down the bets for 2016 on bet types:

I am happy to see that I am “green all over”, although the Draw and Over/Under models are performing below expectations.

The plan for 2017 is to keep the good models for Home and Away, and do some minor changes to Draw and Over/Under to slightly improve their yield. I aim to get all models +1.0% yield. My total yield goal is to improve from 1.24% to 1.30%. A bigger wallet for 2017 will also mean bigger stakes and more turnover. Projecting the turn for the last few months indicates that 2017 could turn around 10 MSEK in total. If both these conditions hold I guess that the bot will generate around 130 000 SEK. That would be very satisfying!

I have also implemented two new models, one for Home and one for Over/Under. These are non-competitive with the other models (meaning that they wont ever bet on the same market). I will start these models with very small stakes, and evaluate during the year. If I could get these models going on full stakes later this year it would increase turnover a lot….

Finally, happy new year to you all and let us make 2017 a magic betting year!