The Playoff Picture: October 1

The playoff picture for the Crew has changed considerably in the last three weeks. After a 3-0
road loss to Sporting Kansas City on Sept. 7, the Crew sat five points behind New England for the
final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The website www.sportsclubstats.com gave the Crew a
1.3 percent chance of reaching the postseason, but then a funny thing happened: the Crew fashioned
its first three-game winning streak of the season.

Now with three games to play, the Crew is just one point behind fifth-place Philadelphia and its
postseason chances have been upgraded to 18.1 percent.

What need to happen this week to improve those chances? Let’s take a look…

The MathSince MLS went to a 34-game schedule in the 2011 season, the final team to make the playoffs
in either conference has finished with an average of 47.8 points – an average of 1.41 points earned
per match.

The Crew now sits at 41 points through 31 games played, an average of 1.32 points earned per
match. In order to reach 47.8 points, the Crew must earn 6.8 points in its final three matches.
That averages out to 2.40 points earned per match, a figure that would be tops in all of MLS this
season. Seattle leads all of MLS with a 1.76 points-per-game average while going 15-8-6, but it is
worth noting that the Crew has averaged 2.40 points per game since interim coach Brian Bliss took
over while going 4-1-0.

The benchmark of 47.8 points might not be applicable in another week, but we’ll stick with it
for now.

Who To Watch This WeekTwo points separate fifth-place Philadelphia and eighth-place Chicago. Each of the other
three teams to occupy those places in the standings have a game in hand on the Crew, which
complicates things. Assuming each team wins out, here is each team’s possible total number of
points:

Philadelphia – 54
Crew – 50
New England – 53
Chicago – 52

As has been the case all season, we’ll take the approach that the Crew could rise as high as
fifth in the standings.

The Union has the enviable task (for most teams, anyway) of hosting Toronto FC. The two teams
have combined for a pair of 1-1 draws this season. At first glance, it’s tough to assume anything
but a Philadelphia win here in a game that will start alongside the Crew’s game.

New England has the toughest task among the teams in contention for the final spot. The
Revolution hosts Supporters’ Shield-leading New York, which might actually field its best players
in this game (novel idea, no?). That game kicks off half an hour before the Crew hosts Kansas
City.

Chicago is the most likely to move up this weekend, as it hosts woeful D.C. United on Friday
night. Whether United will even notice it has a game against the Fire or not remains to be seen
given its all-out pursuit of tonight’s U.S. Open Cup title.

It’s simple, then: Crew fans should be rooting for Toronto, D.C. United and New York
victories.

The Good NewsIt’s unsure just how World Cup call-ups could affect the league, but it is unlikely that they
will impact the Crew’s roster in any way. Jairo Arrieta (Costa Rica) and Kevan George (Trinidad
& Tobago) could be candidates for their national teams, but Arrieta lost his spot with Costa
Rica for his uneven play and I’m not sure his recent strong play will be enough to merit a call-up.
George, a rising player, is still a backup at best for the Crew and his loss would have minimal
impact on the team’s immediate chances for success.

New England’s maximum points remaining is a bit misleading, and the same goes for the Crew. The
two teams will play a home-and-home series to close the season, meaning if the Crew wins out New
England’s total possible points are capped at 47.

The Crew has won four of its last five and is playing its most inspired soccer of the season.
Kansas City could also be without a few players due to national team call-ups.

The Bad NewsWith an open week to follow, the Crew cannot afford to do anything but win against Kansas
City because its fellow competitors have such weak opponents this weekend. Among the only constants
in the Eastern Conference standings this season are Toronto and D.C. United sloughing their way
through the cellar, and it’s tough to imagine they will suddenly summon serious skill and surpass
superior teams – ones that are still playing for something.

Two weeks from now, Chicago will face Toronto, meaning two of the Fire’s final four games are
against the two worst teams in the conference.

The Crew has won four straight games just once in the last three years.