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Tuesday, December 22, 2015

The Syrian Civil War

The civil war in Syria is complicated.

I could also say that the civil war in Syria is a *********** of
incredible proportions.

You can choose your own obscenity to fill in the blank. Mine has eleven letters.

One of the themes of this blog is the graphical representation of
information, because a picture really is worth a thousand words. I’m hoping that a graphical representation
of the conflict can show the complexity of the conflict, and the global scope
of the secondary parties to the conflict.

Any policy that does not recognize the complexity of the war is doomed
to failure. The global scope of the secondary
parties raises the risk that the Syrian Civil War could develop into a much larger
conflict, in the way that a terrorist act in Serbia in 1914 led to World War
I.

This post will examine the war in a progressive fashion, and build a schematic illustration representing the internal and external combatants, the direct military actions, and the flows of money, weapons and military advisors into the war, and religious, ethnic and political affiliations. Here is the final schematic:

I'm sure all this will soon be clear.

Syria

Syria is a small nation on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean
Sea. Syria is about the size of Washington State. It is a bit smaller than Belarus, and a bit larger than Cambodia.

Syria is bordered by Iraq, Turkey,
Lebanon, Israel and Jordan. The
population of the country was about 22 million at the beginning of the war in
2011.

About 12 million people are now homeless due to the war. About 3.5 million people have fled the
country, including about one-half million to Europe. Most of the refugees are located in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. About 8.5 million people are internally
displaced within Syria.

Although estimates vary, it is likely that about 250,000 people have
died in the war to date; perhaps one-half to two-thirds of the deaths were
civilians. There is no estimate on the
number of wounded.

Syria has suffered from a multi-year drought from 2006 through at least
2014. Some climate researchers assert
that the drought is due to the northward migration of deserts due to global
warming. Declining agricultural
productivity and the rising cost of food may have been factors in the original
civil unrest at the beginning of the war.

The Warring Factions

The war began in 2011, as part of the “Arab Spring” revolts throughout
the Middle East. Government suppression
of protests was particularly harsh in Syria.
The protests became and armed conflict, and then a civil war, as the
violence escalated. Some of the Syrian
Army rebelled, forming the Free Syrian Army.
Other groups also formed, to pursue their own goals, or were pushed into
the conflict by the escalating violence on all sides. By 2013, the BBC estimated that over 1000
distinct armed rebel groups were active in Syria. Some of these groups have formed alliances,
such as the Islamic Front; the alliances are sometimes contentious, and there
is violence between rival rebel groups.
Wikipedia lists 38 distinct armed Syrian factions in the war, plus 16
external nations or organizations

I’ve divided the warring factions into seven groups.

·Syrian
Government – a dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad, and the Baathist Party
(formerly associated with Saddam Hussein).

·Free
Syrian Army – formed by Arab Spring protesters and rebels from the
Syrian Army, this is the group considered to be “moderate” rebels, supported by
the U.S. government.

·Islamic
Front – formed by an alliance of seven Islamic groups, and successor to
an earlier alliance. The Islamic Front
was formerly allied with the Free Syrian Army, but one of the member groups,
Ahrar Al Sham, violently turned on the FSA, capturing weapons.

·Al
Nusra Front – allied with Al Qaeda.
Formerly associated with the ISIL, but split in the early days of the
war. Relatively small, but one of the
most effective of the rebel groups.

·Syrian
Kurds – one of four groups of Kurds (the others being in Turkey, Iraq,
and Iran). A very significant ethnic
minority in Northern Syria.

·Turkmen
– A smaller ethnic minority, but significant because of ties to Turkey. The escalating conflict between Russia and
Turkey results issues regarding Russian aggression against the Turkmen, and
Turkish retaliation by shooting down a Russian warplane.

·ISIL
– The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.
The word Levant is significant, because it indicates that ISIL aspires
to control an area including Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel. ISIL, like Al Qaeda, is a global
jihadist/terrorist organization, with operations in Libya, Egypt, Pakistan, and
Indonesia, and capable of performing terrorist acts around the world.

Figure 1. Warring Factions in Syria. Locations are schematic; the Islamic Front
and Nusra Front are active in the north of the country.

The besieged Syrian government controls remnants of territory, mostly
in Western Syria, with a few islands around population centers in other
areas. The Free Syrian Army and Islamic
groups have established a number of enclaves in the heavily populated western
part of the country, but most areas are still under government control. Population centers of Aleppo, Homs, and
Damascus have been the site of intense conflict and destruction. Kurds
have gained control of the northern part of the country, along the border with
Turkey. ISIL controls the sparsely
populated, eastern and central desert.

Figure 2. Active Zones of Control by Warring Factions
in Syria. Figure modified from
Wikicommons, 2015.

In-Country Direct Military Conflicts

All of the rebel factions are in conflict with the Syrian government,
as might be expected. What is unusual in
the Syrian Civil War is the degree of conflict between rebel groups. ISIL
in particular has been savage and brutal in acquiring territory in Iraq and
Syria. Genocide against ethnic
minorities and brutal execution of prisoners has been standard procedure as
part of a campaign of intimidation against all opponents. ISIL is in direct military conflict with the
Free Syrian Army, the Kurds, the Al Nusra Front and the Syrian government. The Islamic Front has also been in conflict
with the Free Syrian Army.

The war has attracted supporters on various sides of the conflict. The reasons for intervention by outside
countries vary. In a way, no doubt every
country intervening in the war has the best of intentions, to make the
situation better, according to their values and interests.

The brutality of the conflict, particularly against civilian
populations, provoked intervention by
Western nations. The use of poison gas
by the Syrian government against a rebel village, killing 1700 civilians,
brought the United States and the United Kingdom into the conflict, firmly on
the side of the rebels. Wealthy private
Islamic interests in the Arabian Gulf region funded ISIL, the Nusra Front and
the Islamic Front on the basis of religious fundamentalism. Sectarian interests against the Sunni
fundamentalists, as well as traditional alliances, brought Iran and Hezbollah
in support of the Syrian government. Russia supports the Syrian government as a strategic ally. Russia has a long-standing friendly relationship with the Syrian
government and has maintained a naval facility at Tartus (the only Russian facility in the Mediterranean) since 1971. Turkey supports the
ethnically related Turkmen and opposes the Kurds, who are related to the
separatist Kurds within Turkey.
Traditional alliances and conflicts have drawn other nations into the
conflict as well.

Every nation opposes ISIL. ISIL has an unmatched record of brutality against all of humanity, including genocide of ethnic and religious minorities in conquered territories; sex slavery of captive women; brutal executions of captured prisoners and kidnap victims from the US, UK, Jordan, Japan, France , Ethiopia and others; the bombing of a Russian passenger jet; a major terrorist attack in Paris, and a minor terrorist attack in the United States.Direct Military Action by External Countries

External countries have engaged in direct military strikes against
combatants in the civil war. Most of the
military actions have been air strikes against ISIL. The United States, France, Britain, Jordan,
and Russia have conducted air strikes against ISIL. Russia has conducted air strikes against
other rebel groups as well. Turkey has
conducted strikes against the Kurds, and shot down a Russian warplane. Israel has made strikes against Hezbollah
weapons shipments and personnel in Syria.

Following the disastrous war in Iraq, the United States has been
reluctant to commit ground forces to combat in Syria. But air strikes alone are insufficient to
defeat ISIL, even in support of Iraqi and other ground forces.

External countries have provided financial support, weapons, and
military advisers to warring factions in Syria.
Recently, Russia has committed the largest contingent of active ground
troops in the conflict.

Ethnic and religious affiliations, alliances and long-standing enmities
shape and exacerbate the conflict, within Syria and between the other countries
involved. The Shiite – Sunni religious
divide is one of the deepest enmities on the planet. There are further divides between Arab
groups seeking government by Islamic Law, and those seeking secular
government. Russia, and nations related
to the former Soviet sphere of influence are aligned in opposition to NATO
allies. Enmity between Russia and Turkey
is high, and is unlikely to improve in the aftermath of Turkey’s downing of
Russia’s warplane.

Figure 10. Affiliations and Alliances of Groups Involved
in the Syrian Civil War.

Conclusion

The civil war in Syria has left a quarter of a million people dead, and
12 million people homeless. This blog
post is intended to provide understanding of the complexity of the war and the
number of powerful external countries participating in the war. For four years, the American government has
failed to recognize the seriousness of the conflict, or to implement policies
that lead to peace. The first step
toward forming appropriate policies is to better recognize the complexity of
the problem.

Here are some of my conclusions.

·The war will not end as long as external
countries continue to supply money, weapons and advisors to the warring
factions. To put out the fire, you must
first stop adding fuel.

·There is no unilateral policy that can end the
war, due to the complexity of the war and the number of powerful nations
participating in the war. Some American
politicians believe that America can do some simple thing to solve the problem
(such as dropping more bombs). Any
solution to the conflict will require the actions of more than one nation.

·There can be no political settlement without the
approval and active support of Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Russia and Iran have existing interests in
Syria that must be respected to end the war.
Turkey is also essential, because of its proximity, military strength
and place of sanctuary for Syrian refugees.

·The Islamic State (ISIL) is an existential
threat to the security of all nations. It is clear that the air campaign alone is
insufficient. We cannot bomb ISIL until
they behave better, and this strategy exacts an inhumane toll on civilian population. ISIL must be eradicated by coordinated action
by the US, NATO, Russia and Iran, including a standing ground force that will
not allow a resurgence of the terrorist movement.

·There is a risk of a larger conflict. There are troubling similarities between the
Syrian Civil War and the situation in the Balkans before World War I. There are many entangling alliances and powerful
external nations, involved in a conflict in a war-torn region, beset by
religious and ethnic enmity. There is a
real risk that the Syrian conflict could spiral out of control, and consume
some of the countries that are now only on the periphery of the conflict.

From 2011 to the present, the world fiddled while Syria burned. In fact, in many ways the rest of the world was pouring gasoline on the fire. An immense human tragedy occurred and is still unfolding. If any lesson can be learned from this catastrophe, it is that the powerful nations of the world should never again allow such a civil war to occur. The human costs of the war exceed the wrongs which were the cause of the war. The people whom America was trying to protect have been damaged more by the civil war than they were damaged by the government of Syria.

·On a more hopeful note (it is always good to
close on a hopeful note, no matter how unlikely), perhaps the process of
arriving at peace in Syria can become a template for ending conflicts in neighboring
nations – Lebanon, Israel and Palestine, Iraq and the Kurdish territories. It is possible.

As I was writing this post, my son brought to my attention two other
graphical representations of the complexity of the Syrian Civil War. The first is Slate’s Syrian version of their
Middle Eastern Friendship Chart. I have
used this without permission and without profit, and will remove it upon
request.

As many as 1000 different armed rebel groups in Syria, representing
100,000 fighters.

Free Syrian Army – Formed by rebel defectors from Syrian Army in
2011. “Moderate” rebels supported by the
U.S. and some Gulf States. Leadership
has little operational control over the movement. Leadership acts as spokesman and conduit for
weapons and funding.

Islamic Front – An alliance
of seven Islamic groups not directly aligned with ISIL. One of the strongest, Ahrar-Al-Sham, led an
earlier Islamic alliance(Syrian Islamic Front) which was allied with the Free
Syrian Army. With the formation of the
Islamic Front, Ahrar-Al-Sham turned on the Free Syrian Army, causing the US and
UK to suspend military support for rebels in Northern Syria. Ahrar Al Sham provides social services and
public works.

Nusra Front – includes Al
Queda in Iraq, and is one of the most effective rebel groups.

5000 – 7000 fighters.

Performs social services and public works.

ISIL (Daesh) – fought with
other rebels groups, including those considered Islamist. Targeted Shia and Alawite civilian populations.

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Here’s a bit of trivia for you. There is about one ton of neodymium in every large wind turbine. Neodymium is element number 60 on the ...

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About me, consider my favorite quote about Don Quixote, from "The Man of La Mancha":

...A country gentleman, no longer young. Being retired, he has much time for books. He studies them from morn to night, and often through the night and morn again, and all he reads oppresses him; fills him with indignation at man's murderous ways toward man. He ponders the problem of how to make better a world where evil brings profit and virtue none at all; where fraud and deceit are mingled with truth and sincerity. He broods and broods and broods and broods, and finally his brains dry up. He lays down the melancholy burden of sanity...."