The existing thread has 1.1k posts and 36k views:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=23772 (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=23772)

It has been closed tonight and this thread now takes over (ends).

Azor....not much in the way of accurate info as the UAF is not talking....

Evidently it evolved out of a constant amount of shelling coming from this one location and UAF has not been returning much counter fire other than when threatened by ground attacks trying to remain inside Minsk 2 and not be accused for violating it by both Putin and the West.

Rumored from one comment was that it was a joint infantry attack supported by Mech side....25th BN and the 52nd Brigade a battle hardened UAF Mech line unit fighting since 2014

Rumored was 11 or so UAF wounded but that did not show up in their daily ATO briefing. No comments on any KIA outside of these WIAs.

IMHO it had a two fold effect;
1. destroyed a major artillery position and base camp that had been causing loses
2. showed the Russian military and her mercenaries the UAF could at their choosing make a very specific rapid attack and advance as fast and as far as they wanted to go

AND did it get their attention as it has been the Russians and her mercenaries constantly attacking over the last year and the UAF basically sitting and taking it...example the DNR has been on a massive police/security lock down looking for "raiders". via car searches/roadblocks...so maybe also there was a UAF SF unit or two also involved....

Once the objective was cleared the UAF units returned back to Minsk 2 front lines....

This is from the vk account of the so called dnrarmy showing the positions as of 1/6/2016

We saw this Russian map marking method used when I worked with them in 2012/2013 during the Atlas Vision exercises held in Germany

OUTLAW 09

07-02-2016, 07:43 AM

Azor....not much in the way of accurate info as the UAF is not talking....

Evidently it evolved out of a constant amount of shelling coming from this one location and UAF has not been returning much counter fire other than when threatened by ground attacks trying to remain inside Minsk 2 and not be accused for violating it by both Putin and the West.

Rumored from one comment was that it was a joint infantry attack supported by Mech side....25th BN and the 52nd Brigade a battle hardened UAF Mech line unit fighting since 2014

Rumored was 11 or so UAF wounded but that did not show up in their daily ATO briefing. No comments on any KIA outside of these WIAs.

IMHO it had a two fold effect;
1. destroyed a major artillery position and base camp that had been causing loses
2. showed the Russian military and her mercenaries the UAF could at their choosing make a very specific rapid attack and advance as fast and as far as they wanted to go

AND did it get their attention as it has been the Russians and her mercenaries constantly attacking over the last year and the UAF basically sitting and taking it...example the DNR has been on a massive police/security lock down looking for "raiders". via car searches/roadblocks...so maybe also there was a UAF SF unit or two also involved....

Once the objective was cleared the UAF units returned back to Minsk 2 front lines....

This is from the vk account of the so called dnrarmy showing the positions as of 1/6/2016

We saw this Russian map marking method used when I worked with them in 2012/2013 during the Atlas Vision exercises held in Germany

There was heavy fighting around #Debaltseve / #Svitlodarsk again yesterday evening

Azor....it appears the UAF is holding strategic ground positions covering their own front line and presenting to the DNR/Russian Army a perceived direct threat to Debaltseve for the Russian military a strategic railhead....and this is critical the UAF intently watches to make sure the Russians cannot create a pocket as they only learned badly in 2014 and 2015 in Debaltseve.

OUTLAW 09

07-02-2016, 07:52 AM

09:37 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka a boom
09:38 Power supply cut off

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
For more on the creepiest #MH17 development this year check out this post
http://www.whathappenedtoflightmh17.com/new-video-states-buk-transport-at-zuhres-was-filmed-at-july-5/ …

MH17 Zuhres video was captured on Iphone 5 and recorded at 11:40 (8:40 UTC time).

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
The "MH17 Inquiry" video is so dubious even #MH17 Truthers are claiming it's a false flag to make Russia look suspicious.

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
The "MH17 Inquiry" video seems to show Russia has resorted to witness tampering to defend themselves against #MH17 accusations.

OUTLAW 09

07-02-2016, 09:44 AM

Putin stated in the article: "Do you think we will keep it as it is: our troops at 1,500 (kilometers, 900 miles) away?"

Unfortunately, he must not be a student of geography, or perhaps his orders to redeploy Russian forces east of the Urals before the impending NATO offensive was ignored...

More than one major Western Military District base is within 500 km of Finland, mainly due to the proximity of Saint Petersburg. I fail to see how Putin can militarize the district even more unless he camps 40,000 troops on Finland's borders as he did with Ukraine.

Regardless of the math, this is a threat one must take seriously, as Finland's non-aligned and Soviet-sensitive status was one of the perks of the Cold War. He may very well calculate that using force on Finland would bring back that status and discourage Sweden from forging closer ties to NATO. Finland is a key "buffer" for Russia, as much as Ukraine or Belarus is.

Azor....seems the Russian MoD is not sure exactly where they are based these days and that is not good.......

Russian official: (Putin's) 1500km meant width. We have no troops on border from Leningrad Oblast to Murmansk. https://twitter.com/Erkanomia/status/749126129743650817 …

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
For more on the creepiest #MH17 development this year check out this post
http://www.whathappenedtoflightmh17.com/new-video-states-buk-transport-at-zuhres-was-filmed-at-july-5/ …

MH17 Zuhres video was captured on Iphone 5 and recorded at 11:40 (8:40 UTC time).

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
The "MH17 Inquiry" video is so dubious even #MH17 Truthers are claiming it's a false flag to make Russia look suspicious.

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
The "MH17 Inquiry" video seems to show Russia has resorted to witness tampering to defend themselves against #MH17 accusations.

DSB: #Buk missile parts recovered from #MH17 wreckage area.

davidbfpo

07-02-2016, 12:13 PM

The existing thread has 1.1k posts and 36k views:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=23772

It has been closed tonight and this thread now takes over. This post may not be first once a few posts today are moved.

Former Russian Minister: Sooner or later, Kremlin will have to apologize to Ukraine for war and pay compensation
http://www.unian.info/politics/1392256-russian-diplomat-sooner-or-later-russia-will-have-to-apologize-to-ukraine-and-compensate-for-damages-inflicted.html …

Yes, ordinary coal miners and tractor drivers forged their BUKs and Grads at village smithies)

Escalation in ATO: combined Rus-militant forces fired 69 times upon Ukr troops over last day against 48 the day before - ATO press center

OUTLAW 09

07-03-2016, 07:03 AM

A Russian war ship is in a close call with a U.S. Navy ship — again
http://cnn.it/29hjD4z

OUTLAW 09

07-03-2016, 07:10 AM

Occasionally Ukrainian politics gets in their own way......Ukraine giving in to a Russian mercenary demand feels like they are accepting Russian occupation or is it internal politics at work.....interesting to see how this one goes.....

Do not exactly understand how he could have been looting and kidnapping as they were under virtual attack by Russian troops and her mercenaries for over 1.4 years in this front line area....that would have required him physically being behind the combat lines of the LNR in order to loot and kidnap.....as virtually everything along the front LNR line had been destroyed in Russian/mercenary shelling attacks...

NOTE: the Ukrainian Crimean Admiral who defected to Russia when they invaded Crimea is now the Russian Naval Commander for the Baltic Fleet....now convince me he has not be working for the Russians for years......he was the one who initially gave the command for all Ukrainian naval vessels to remain in Crimea instead of immediately leaving in the first days of the takeover.

OUTLAW 09

07-03-2016, 10:20 AM

Russian Separatists in Occup. Parts of Eastern #Ukraine Trick #Journalists & Mothers Into The Line Of Fire http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/07/02/russian-separatists-trick-journalists-and-mothers-into-the-line-of-fire/#3387f1325860 …

No KIA, but 6 UA servicemen WIA by #Russian occupiers in the #warzone in E #Ukraine over the last 24h - official

Apparently Putin decided to order to turn transponders on at the prompting of Finnish President Sauli Niinisto.

Article in #Italian about mercenaries from #Italy #ITA, who fight in occup. #Donbas against #Ukraine for Kremlin
http://www.stopfake.org/it/foreign-fighter-italiani/ …

OUTLAW 09

07-03-2016, 05:48 PM

Dmitry Tymchuk: Military update 03.07

Posted on July 3, 2016

Operational data from Information Resistance:

Russian-terrorist troops in Donbas continue shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops and settlements under Ukrainian control, as well as settlements under terrorist control. During the last 24 hours, the situation began to deteriorate. Militants opened fire practically along the entire demarcation line, using heavy weapons, including 122 mm cannon artillery and armored vehicles (both light infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, as well as heavy tanks).

Constant enemy fire attacks from small arms, light and heavy machine grenade launchers, including anti-tank LNG-9M and automatic AGS-17, 82- and 120 mm mortars were observed near Avdiivka and its outskirts (including “Butovka” mine, Opytne, Tsarska Okhota, “Shakhta,” and Pisky), Dokuchajevsk (including Berezove, Yasne, and Novotroitske), Horlivka on the perimeter from Novhorodske to Holmivskyi (militants are particularly active in the area of Mayorskyiv–Zhovanka–Zaitseve), almost across the entire Svitlodarsk arch (from Svitlodarsk to Novozvanivka), almost the entire seaside flank (from Hranitne to Shyrokyne) and areas to the west and south of Donetsk, including Mar‘inka and Krasnohorivka, Shchastia–Stanytsia Luhanska (in the latter area, the enemy was particularly active in the nighttime).

Terrorists twice shelled the positions of ATO forces in the area of Stanytsia Luhanska from a BMP-1, from their positions to the northeast of Veselenke, firing also from large-caliber machine guns and AGS-17, providing cover for the maneuvers of armored vehicles.

Moreover, militants opened fire twice from 122 mm artillery in the Donetsk area, namely from camouflaged positions between the village of Vesele and Stratonavtiv Street (three 122 mm self-propelled 2S1 “Carnation” guns); the shells from 56-58 rounds spread in the fields between Netaylove– Yasnobrodivka–Tonenke. Meanwhile, terrorists attempted to correct artillery fire using UAVs.

In addition, the enemy used artillery applied in the area of Styla. A firing battery (four D-30/D-30A 122 mm guns) opened rapid fire on advanced settlements and strongholds of the ATO forces. Militants fired about 35 rounds during the raid on Ukrainian troop positions in the vicinity of Viktorivka and north of Bohdanivka.

In the area of Avdiivka, terrorists fired from tank weapons. A militant tank fired up to 10 rounds from masked positions in the area of the 251.2 elevation, mainly with RP-shells, towards ATO forces’ positions in the industrial area, after which the tank moved back to the terrorist positions. The tank’s departure was covered by mortar fire (from at least a full battery of 82 mm mortars) from the direction of the “Hospodar” market.

Of particular importance are increasing enemy attacks that purposefully use anti-tank missile systems to destroy ATO forces’ light armored vehicles located directly at the front line. Analysis of the militant anti-tank missile system detachments shows that in the course of their work, the militants are actively using information obtained from enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the ground, who refine and ‘tag’ the targets (including benchmarks and tracking the movements of ATO forces’ armored vehicles). For example, in the vicinity of the 175.9 elevation (located south of Sokilnyky) militants set up an “anti-transport ambush” by carrying out two strikes from anti-tank missile systems in the “greenery” at previously explored positions of Ukrainian armored vehicles (both shots missed their targets).

The situation remains difficult in Dokuchajevsk where militants are actively trying to push Ukrainian units as far away from the settlement as possible; armed confrontations are in their fourth day in the area. Terrorist infantry groups continue to infiltrate the flanks and junctures of embankments and the advanced positions of the ATO forces from time to time, in order to force Ukrainian troops to withdraw at least to the Mariupol–Donetsk highway, or even all the way to Novotroitsk. The main point of tension is an advanced ATO forces’ position at the so-called “gray waste heaps” (an elevation south of the Central quarry dumps), which effectively prevents terrorists from operating [in areas] south of Dokuchajevsk, because it allows the ATO forces to sweep all the entrances to the city from this direction.

In addition to attacks and provocations, the enemy actively regroups its personnel and equipment, equipping several units and detachments, both on the front line and in the second tier. Of particular importance is the transfer of crossing means to the area between the settlements of Shchastia and Zhovte. In addition, attention should be paid to the fortification of Stakhanov–Alchevsk enemy groups – the IR group has detected the transfer of at least one militant “motorized infantry battalion” using several convoys from the direction of Lutuhyne and Petrovskyi (14 MT-LB and BMP-1 and ten vehicles passed through Bile [“Bee-leh´”], 15-16 armored vehicles passed through Seleznivka–Perevalsk, including a BMP-1, BMP-2, MT-LB, five BTR-70 and BTR-80, and 14-15 motor vehicles, including 8 vehicles, part of a mortar battery (120-mm mortars). The transfer was carried out in small groups (likely platoons) over a period of two days.

In addition, a secret transfer of a militant tank platoon and eight armored vehicles was observed in Olenivka; the transfer was carried out by bypassing the settlement from the east. The enemy also transferred eight APCs from the eastern part of the Petrovskyi district of Donetsk via the Donetsk Bypass road towards the south. The enemy continuously supplies ammunition in the Styla area. According to preliminary data, militants set up an advanced base in the eastern part of the Petrovskyi district of Donetsk or behind it in the are toward Lisne.

In an area from Staromykhailivka and to the north of it, up to Spartak and Putylivka, militants have launched a network of mobile roadblocks and checkpoints in the tactical and operational-tactical zone. In effect, they have “closed” the entire northwest corner of Donetsk, south of Avdiivka, and the Donetsk International Airport. The purpose of these activities is currently being assessed – most likely, a large terrorist formation will be set up and deployed in the area.

OUTLAW 09

07-03-2016, 05:59 PM

Russian party is starting again......

14:30 Skirmish with mortars in #Shyrokyne area still ongoing.

From one of the Russian party's yesterday.....
Artillery attack near Lohvynove yesterday
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/3-july-artillery-attack-near-lohvynove-yesterday …
pic.twitter.com/NysbevEWT9

Battle at #Shyrokyne is still ongoing, can be heard in #Mariupol.
19:50

OUTLAW 09

07-03-2016, 06:01 PM

Kremlin's main propaganda centre in Western Europe #Berlin
http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/das-russland-bild-der-deutschen-redewendungen-an-der-wahrheit-vorbei/13816272.html …
In German....

War in eastern #Ukraine further escalates.
Bus in western #Donetsk city hit by 120 mm mortar.
2 civilians injured.

Apparently a Russian troop/mercenary fired "short round".....

OUTLAW 09

07-05-2016, 01:12 PM

Ukrainian MP Accused Of Corruption Is Stripped Of Immunity But Has Fled To Moscow
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-869/

Russia is running out one of their three sovereign funds...
Exclusive: Russia to empty one of its sovereign funds next year - ministry proposal
http://reut.rs/29e0efJ

Ukraine seeks to set up joint production of lethal weapons with U.S. – Ambassador
http://www.unian.info/politics/1401529-ukraine-seeks-to-set-up-joint-production-of-lethal-weapons-with-us-ambassador.html …

Russian tries another economic blockade of Ukrainian trucks.....last time Ukraine blocked Russian trucks in return and the Poles blocked as well...so in the end Russia caved....trying it again it seems....

Trump's foreign policy advisor is in Moscow. He thinks Euromaidan was a CIA coup and Ukraine is a Russian province: http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-july-5-2016/#14461?pressId=14461 …

OUTLAW 09

07-05-2016, 05:29 PM

Numbers-Stations.com @Spy_Stations
New Article: Russian Military in Kaliningrad
http://www.numbers-stations.com/articles/russian-military-in-kaliningrad/ …

Azor

07-05-2016, 09:33 PM

I've long argued that Putin is far more likely to attack Belarus or Kazakhstan than the Baltics, as the former two are:

Not protected by any major and/or nuclear-armed powers
Hold more "resources" for Russia than the Baltics (i.e. human and commodity)
Regarded as much part of Russia historic "buffer zone", "privileged sphere of interest" or "near abroad" as Ukraine
Exhibiting tensions towards the "Russian World" i.e. distancing themselves from Moscow and Russian language and culture

Here is the latest from Jamestown: Minsk Fears Moscow May Organize Hybrid War and Color Revolution in Belarus (http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45557&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=381&cHash=fe14e739b344268a95a81239ead0d1c2#.V3wlt1YrKU k)

"Many governments in the post-Soviet space fear they may be threatened by a color revolution; others are worried that they will become victims of a hybrid war. But Belarus is worried about both at the same time, something that makes it difficult for Minsk to cope because the challenges posed by the one and those posed by the other are quite different. Moreover, the policies that might be most useful to block one could, in some circumstances, have the effect of making the latter more likely. This is especially true because one outside power—Vladimir Putin’s Russia—is interested in making use of both in pursuit of Moscow’s ends..."

OUTLAW 09

07-06-2016, 05:53 AM

I've long argued that Putin is far more likely to attack Belarus or Kazakhstan than the Baltics, as the former two are:

Not protected by any major and/or nuclear-armed powers
Hold more "resources" for Russia than the Baltics (i.e. human and commodity)
Regarded as much part of Russia historic "buffer zone", "privileged sphere of interest" or "near abroad" as Ukraine
Exhibiting tensions towards the "Russian World" i.e. distancing themselves from Moscow and Russian language and culture

Here is the latest from Jamestown: Minsk Fears Moscow May Organize Hybrid War and Color Revolution in Belarus (http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45557&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=381&cHash=fe14e739b344268a95a81239ead0d1c2#.V3wlt1YrKU k)

"Many governments in the post-Soviet space fear they may be threatened by a color revolution; others are worried that they will become victims of a hybrid war. But Belarus is worried about both at the same time, something that makes it difficult for Minsk to cope because the challenges posed by the one and those posed by the other are quite different. Moreover, the policies that might be most useful to block one could, in some circumstances, have the effect of making the latter more likely. This is especially true because one outside power—Vladimir Putin’s Russia—is interested in making use of both in pursuit of Moscow’s ends..."

Russia has no need to further "threaten" Belarus as they have all they need to do that already stationed inside Belarus ........and as Crimea has shown they can beef up those bases and Belarus cannot really say anything especially since Belarus is a member of CIS as well......

Based on the Russian statements that they perceived the NATO actions in the Baltics to be militarily provocative they are following their Cold War Warsaw Pact strategy of building a second line of defense.

Just as the Soviet Army was forward based inside the GDR it had far fewer troops in Czechoslovakia but built a second line of defense by basing more troops in say Poland and next to the Czechoslovakian border in order to stop a "perceived NATO ground attack"

Yes Belarus can feel a "perceived" Russian military threat by these new troop basing's....IMHO it is a second line of defense against a "perceived NATO military threat coming from the Baltics'.

So Putin wins twice...he "threatens Belarus" and defends against NATO in one single move.

BUT.......

This is Why @NATO Needs to be Worried About Russia
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-05/more-tensions-brewing-between-putin-and-nato …

BUT........

Putin is rapidly reaching his decision point of "guns or butter" as he cannot afford any further "both"........I had said back after Crimea and shortly after the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine he would soon reach that point and it is now literally in front of his nose....that is why he is suddenly "playing nice" before the NATO Warsaw Summit by "lowering tensions in the Baltics" by turning on his "transponders"......begs the question if he turned them on...WHO turned them off?????

Canadian military trainers find they can also learn much from Ukraine's experience of Russian hybrid war tactics
http://bunews.com.ua/component/zoo/item/national-post-canadian-soldiers-pass-on-life-saving-tips-to-ukrainian-troops-fighting-russian-backed-separatists?Itemid=101 …

Record number of illegal arms from Donbas found at premises of Dnipro-1 Regiment
http://www.unian.info/society/1403218-record-number-of-illegal-arms-from-donbas-found-at-premises-of-dnipro-1-regiment.html …

OUTLAW 09

07-06-2016, 12:19 PM

New report on cross-border attacks comes as another proof of #Russia ' s war in #Ukraine
http://uatoday.tv/society/new-report-on-cross-border-attacks-comes-as-another-proof-of-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-688649.html …

FAZ having a story on how Head of Czech Radio cooperated with pro-Kremlin disinformators:
http://goo.gl/ykgd9O

OUTLAW 09

07-06-2016, 02:46 PM

Russia has no need to further "threaten" Belarus as they have all they need to do that already stationed inside Belarus ........and as Crimea has shown they can beef up those bases and Belarus cannot really say anything especially since Belarus is a member of CIS as well......

Based on the Russian statements that they perceived the NATO actions in the Baltics to be militarily provocative they are following their Cold War Warsaw Pact strategy of building a second line of defense.

Just as the Soviet Army was forward based inside the GDR it had far fewer troops in Czechoslovakia but built a second line of defense by basing more troops in say Poland and next to the Czechoslovakian border in order to stop a "perceived NATO ground attack"

Yes Belarus can feel a "perceived" Russian military threat by these new troop basing's....IMHO it is a second line of defense against a "perceived NATO military threat coming from the Baltics'.

So Putin wins twice...he "threatens Belarus" and defends against NATO in one single move.

BUT.......

This is Why @NATO Needs to be Worried About Russia
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-05/more-tensions-brewing-between-putin-and-nato …

BUT........

Putin is rapidly reaching his decision point of "guns or butter" as he cannot afford any further "both"........I had said back after Crimea and shortly after the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine he would soon reach that point and it is now literally in front of his nose....that is why he is suddenly "playing nice" before the NATO Warsaw Summit by "lowering tensions in the Baltics" by turning on his "transponders"......begs the question if he turned them on...WHO turned them off?????

CNN: ..."The history of Russian-American relations shows that when we act as equal partners and respect each other's lawful interests, we are able to successfully resolve the most complex international issues for the benefit of both countries' peoples and all of humanity," Putin wrote, according to the Russian readout. The Kremlin said Putin suggested past work between the two countries would "help to set the dialogue between Russia and the United States back on a constructive track" to address global concerns....

Someone really wants in from the cold...

OUTLAW 09

07-06-2016, 04:50 PM

ATO spox: Total number of ceasefire violations in Mariupol sector: 29. Sixteen featured heavy weapons

ATO spox: Ukrainian troops engaged in shootout with the militants in the vicinity of Berezove village

Ydays presser on Patrushev visit to Pskov did not mention inspecting 76th.
Lots of high-level inspections to units lately.

Azor

07-06-2016, 05:44 PM

Russia has no need to further "threaten" Belarus as they have all they need to do that already stationed inside Belarus ........and as Crimea has shown they can beef up those bases and Belarus cannot really say anything especially since Belarus is a member of CIS as well......

Lukashenko has been adept at playing both sides. He is well aware that the EU would be less critical of a Russian incursion into Belarus than it was over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus is more integrated into the Russian-led economic and security architecture than Ukraine was (CSTO, EEU), and Belarus' role in Russia's aerospace defense is even more vital than Crimea. Nevertheless, we have seen increasing attempts by Lukashenko to garner Western interest in the hope of counter-balancing Russia and maintaining as much independence as possible. As long as Putin is invested in Ukraine and Syria, and as long as the Kazakhs are agitating more, Lukashenko can slacken the leash.

Putin has probably concluded from the Ukrainian situation that proximity, economic integration, political and intelligence infiltration and forward deployment of forces is not enough to guarantee "loyalty". He secured Crimea but lost most of Ukraine and was dealt a severe intelligence (technology secrets) and military (industrial capacity) blow, all because Yanukovych did not "obey orders". Putin won't make the same mistake in Belarus.

Based on the Russian statements that they perceived the NATO actions in the Baltics to be militarily provocative they are following their Cold War Warsaw Pact strategy of building a second line of defense. Just as the Soviet Army was forward based inside the GDR it had far fewer troops in Czechoslovakia but built a second line of defense by basing more troops in say Poland and next to the Czechoslovakian border in order to stop a "perceived NATO ground attack" Yes Belarus can feel a "perceived" Russian military threat by these new troop basing's....IMHO it is a second line of defense against a "perceived NATO military threat coming from the Baltics'. So Putin wins twice...he "threatens Belarus" and defends against NATO in one single move.

Defense in depth, no? In practice, the Soviets' notion of defense was to keep attacking by way of counter-offensives, and even their planned response to a NATO invasion was to march west...

So Kaliningrad is the staging area for the first line to prevent NATO from reaching the second line in Belarus?

Belarus is as integral to Russian security as Canada is to the United States, and I would go so far as to say that while the loss of Kaliningrad might not warrant "nuclear de-escalation", a NATO drive into Belarus certainly would.

This is Why @NATO Needs to be Worried About Russia

I read the Bloomberg article, but it doesn't add anything new to the debate, other than some more detail on Russia's opposition to NATO BMD in East-Central Europe, which I surprisingly agree with. Of course, Bloomberg's reporting is very political and I imagine that the billionaire opposes BMD in Europe and the more conciliatory EPAA.

The impetus for BMD was to protect the United States against blackmail or a small strike from a rogue state (such as North Korea, Iran or Syria), an accidental launch (e.g. Black Brant) or one by a rogue local commander. NATO BMD is supposedly intended to protect NATO from Iran, even though Iran's likely targets are Israel, the Gulf Arab states and US bases in CENTCOM.

Nuclear warfare experts (CSIS) conclude that BMD today, while hardly capable of stopping a full strategic exchange, could whittle down a second strike. And unless Russian officers are granted access to Aegis Ashore sites, along the lines of Nunn-Lugar, they may very well assume that the sites can also be used for offensive purposes.

Putin is rapidly reaching his decision point of "guns or butter" as he cannot afford any further "both"........I had said back after Crimea and shortly after the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine he would soon reach that point and it is now literally in front of his nose....that is why he is suddenly "playing nice" before the NATO Warsaw Summit by "lowering tensions in the Baltics" by turning on his "transponders"......begs the question if he turned them on...WHO turned them off?????

From what I can see, Russia will have a very slow recovery to stagnation or slow growth and only exclusion from SWIFT or another serious financial measure will force Putin to choose between guns and butter.

OUTLAW 09

07-06-2016, 06:56 PM

Lukashenko has been adept at playing both sides. He is well aware that the EU would be less critical of a Russian incursion into Belarus than it was over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus is more integrated into the Russian-led economic and security architecture than Ukraine was (CSTO, EEU), and Belarus' role in Russia's aerospace defense is even more vital than Crimea. Nevertheless, we have seen increasing attempts by Lukashenko to garner Western interest in the hope of counter-balancing Russia and maintaining as much independence as possible. As long as Putin is invested in Ukraine and Syria, and as long as the Kazakhs are agitating more, Lukashenko can slacken the leash.

Putin has probably concluded from the Ukrainian situation that proximity, economic integration, political and intelligence infiltration and forward deployment of forces is not enough to guarantee "loyalty". He secured Crimea but lost most of Ukraine and was dealt a severe intelligence (technology secrets) and military (industrial capacity) blow, all because Yanukovych did not "obey orders". Putin won't make the same mistake in Belarus.

Defense in depth, no? In practice, the Soviets' notion of defense was to keep attacking by way of counter-offensives, and even their planned response to a NATO invasion was to march west...

So Kaliningrad is the staging area for the first line to prevent NATO from reaching the second line in Belarus?

Belarus is as integral to Russian security as Canada is to the United States, and I would go so far as to say that while the loss of Kaliningrad might not warrant "nuclear de-escalation", a NATO drive into Belarus certainly would.

I read the Bloomberg article, but it doesn't add anything new to the debate, other than some more detail on Russia's opposition to NATO BMD in East-Central Europe, which I surprisingly agree with. Of course, Bloomberg's reporting is very political and I imagine that the billionaire opposes BMD in Europe and the more conciliatory EPAA.

The impetus for BMD was to protect the United States against blackmail or a small strike from a rogue state (such as North Korea, Iran or Syria), an accidental launch (e.g. Black Brant) or one by a rogue local commander. NATO BMD is supposedly intended to protect NATO from Iran, even though Iran's likely targets are Israel, the Gulf Arab states and US bases in CENTCOM.

Nuclear warfare experts (CSIS) conclude that BMD today, while hardly capable of stopping a full strategic exchange, could whittle down a second strike. And unless Russian officers are granted access to Aegis Ashore sites, along the lines of Nunn-Lugar, they may very well assume that the sites can also be used for offensive purposes.

From what I can see, Russia will have a very slow recovery to stagnation or slow growth and only exclusion from SWIFT or another serious financial measure will force Putin to choose between guns and butter.

Azor...double check the actual deployment of Soviet troop units in that second line of defensive bases that started in Poland ........based on the very last Soviet military exercise conducted in mid 1980s the largest ever held in the GDR.....which was the main Soviet attack being actually exercised those Polish units were the follow on forces once the attack punched through NATO defenses or if NATO pushed back they were the defensive blocking forces....

Kaliningrad......they in fact would "de-escalate over it.....why... it is they main Baltic fleet center, and if I am not so wrong they plan shortly to move their tactical ballistic nuclear missiles into it to counter NATO moves as well as being their Baltic air denial bubble ........via S300/400s.....

Azor

07-06-2016, 09:30 PM

Azor...double check the actual deployment of Soviet troop units in that second line of defensive bases that started in Poland ........based on the very last Soviet military exercise conducted in mid 1980s the largest ever held in the GDR.....which was the main Soviet attack being actually exercised those Polish units were the follow on forces once the attack punched through NATO defenses or if NATO pushed back they were the defensive blocking forces....

Yes I know. But Russia no longer has the same cordon sanitaire that the Warsaw Pact provided.

Kaliningrad serves to obstruct any attempt to marshal forces in the Baltics for an invasion, but if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, the Baltics would be transformed from a vulnerable and partly isolated flank to a bridgehead.

Kaliningrad......they in fact would "de-escalate over it.....why... it is they main Baltic fleet center, and if I am not so wrong they plan shortly to move their tactical ballistic nuclear missiles into it to counter NATO moves as well as being their Baltic air denial bubble ........via S300/400s.....

I would still say that Kaliningrad is expendable. Its transformation into a military camp bristling with long-range offensive and defensive systems means that it frustrates any attempt to bypass it. This is not to say that Russia would cede sovereignty of the oblast in the event of a conventional loss NATO, but Kaliningrad is more of a forward operating base and a recent war prize like the Kuriles but unlike say Crimea.

As for the Baltic Fleet, it receives the least resources of all of Russia's seaborne units and is more than capable of sealing off the eastern Baltic Sea even under heavy fire. Note that its submarine units are based in St. Petersburg not Kaliningrad...

OUTLAW 09

07-07-2016, 04:39 AM

Yes I know. But Russia no longer has the same cordon sanitaire that the Warsaw Pact provided.

Kaliningrad serves to obstruct any attempt to marshal forces in the Baltics for an invasion, but if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, the Baltics would be transformed from a vulnerable and partly isolated flank to a bridgehead.

I would still say that Kaliningrad is expendable. Its transformation into a military camp bristling with long-range offensive and defensive systems means that it frustrates any attempt to bypass it. This is not to say that Russia would cede sovereignty of the oblast in the event of a conventional loss NATO, but Kaliningrad is more of a forward operating base and a recent war prize like the Kuriles but unlike say Crimea.

As for the Baltic Fleet, it receives the least resources of all of Russia's seaborne units and is more than capable of sealing off the eastern Baltic Sea even under heavy fire. Note that its submarine units are based in St. Petersburg not Kaliningrad...

AND the distance between Kaliningrad to the actual RF border is again what ...roughly max 150kms....it is exactly this point that bothers NATO....the new so called "Fulda Gap" that cuts Poland off from the Baltics.

If that gap is sufficiently blocked then there is no land route for NATO into the Baltics that is the importance of Kaliningrad---one half of a pincer movement.

13:53 #Avdiivka @tiamat007 Ongoing battle in the direction of #Promka, one can hear heavy explosions

Avdiivka: explosions, battle in the area of Promka

Ukraine suffered 2 KIA, 6 WIA in the last 24 hours

OUTLAW 09

07-07-2016, 12:19 PM

EU Mythbusters
✔ @EUvsDisinfo Pro-Kremlin mathematics: it doesn't have to add up, as long as it looks BIG.
http://eepurl.com/b8DZc9

Azor

07-07-2016, 02:57 PM

AND the distance between Kaliningrad to the actual RF border is again what ...roughly max 150kms....it is exactly this point that bothers NATO....the new so called "Fulda Gap" that cuts Poland off from the Baltics.

If that gap is sufficiently blocked then there is no land route for NATO into the Baltics that is the importance of Kaliningrad---one half of a pincer movement.

The more Russian strategists consider severing the Baltics from Poland, the more Sweden or Finland's accession to NATO makes sense as a way to facilitate access to the Baltics. This could also be accomplished by way of agreements with Sweden and Finland short of NATO membership i.e. transit rights.

Ultimately, NATO can smash through any block that Russia attempts and can defeat Russia in detail on Kaliningrad and Belorussian soil without resorting to nuclear weapons.

OUTLAW 09

07-07-2016, 03:25 PM

The more Russian strategists consider severing the Baltics from Poland, the more Sweden or Finland's accession to NATO makes sense as a way to facilitate access to the Baltics. This could also be accomplished by way of agreements with Sweden and Finland short of NATO membership i.e. transit rights.

Ultimately, NATO can smash through any block that Russia attempts and can defeat Russia in detail on Kaliningrad and Belorussian soil without resorting to nuclear weapons.

What is interesting is that as Russia is more aggressive towards both Sweden and Finland the more their own citizens want to join NATO....something unheard of in the Cold War days as both remain totally neutral....

BREAKING #NATO official: Polt. leaders have delegated authority to commanders below SACEUR to use #missiledefense against incoming threats
NATO official: NATO was cooperating with #Russia on #missiledefense. It was Russia that ended this unilaterally #NATOSummit

Belarus FM about additional #NATO troops in #Europe: We understand the logic, but do not welcome these steps https://www.facebook.com/BelarusInEnglish/posts/520062941528111 …

Russian troops, waging war against Ukraine in the Donbas, continue to bear significant losses. According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, eight Russian servicemen were killed earlier this week.

The greatest losses were sustained by the Russian troops stationed in Novoazovsk. These Russian units have recently intensified sabotage, reconnaissance missions and the shelling of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol. At the same time their morale, as well as that of the 1st Army Corps (Donetsk) of the Russian Armed Forces, remains extremely low.

On the 5th of July, eight separatists left the front lines in eastern Ukraine and expressed their unwillingness to continue their combat service after witnessing five bodies and four seriously injured fellow soldiers being transported off the front line, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine reported.

MOSCOW, July 7. /TASS/. Russia is concerned by the redeployment towards Donbass of the Ukrainian army units trained by NATO instructors, the Russian ambassador to NATO, Alexander Grushko, said in an interview published by Kommersant Daily.

"Assistance programs NATO is implementing in Ukraine play into the hands of the ‘party of war’ and incite the feeling of a possible military revenge among some forces in Kiev," Grushko said. "We’re also concerned by the redeployment of units trained by NATO instructors to the line of contact in Donbass."

Grushko also expressed concern over the fact NATO’s political course had taken the shape of military planning.

"That’s really dangerous, because the military planning that targets Russia will unavoidably generate hostile policies," he said.

"NATO will have to explain to society all the time why is its spending so hugely to rebuff the threat from the East," Grushko said. "It’s clear to everyone a threat of this kind doesn’t exist.".

OUTLAW 09

07-07-2016, 06:22 PM

One simulation shows that a Russian invasion of the #Baltics would be over in < 3 days.
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/insecurity-in-the-baltic-the-russian-perspective,defense,1886.html …

Currently @RT_com is explaining that the intervention in #Libya was indefensible, but any opposition to Russia in Ukraine is warmongering.

Russian President Vladimir Putin phoned U.S. counterpart Barack Obama to discuss Syria, Ukraine and the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The readouts from Wednesday’s conversation published by the White House and Kremlin had some notable differences, with each leader stressing their side on each issue.

According to the Kremlin’s statement, during their discussion on Syria, Putin called on Obama to find a way to separate militant groups from the moderate Syrian opposition in order to continue peace talks. Meanwhile, according to the White House, Obama stressed to Putin “the failure of the Syrian regime” to comply with the ceasefire and urged Russia to pressure its ally towards compliance.

The Kremlin also said that Obama “gave high praise to Russia’s efforts” in regulating the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenian-backed forces in Nagorno Karabakh. The White House makes no mention of this, but instead affirms Obama’s willingness to maintain U.S. efforts in peace initiatives in the region.

The two leaders also appeared to be talking past each other when it came to Ukraine, with Putin insisting the U.S. see the importance of including the Russian-backed separatist groups in dialogue.

Ukraine considers Russia to be behind the separatists so it has repeatedly called for Russian officials to represent the separatist forces in peace talks, while Russia denies this and argues that the dispute is domestic. For that reason Obama asked Putin to ensure the uptick in violence in eastern Ukraine is reversed and Russia implement the ceasefire agreed by all sides last year.

OUTLAW 09

07-07-2016, 06:45 PM

Relatively quiet Russian party tonight.....

Starting at around 21:00 it is getting a little louder and more activity....

What is interesting is that as Russia is more aggressive towards both Sweden and Finland the more their own citizens want to join NATO....something unheard of in the Cold War days as both remain totally neutral....

Or it could be that the Kremlin believes that the decision has already been made and its aggressive moves are an attempt to change it...

I believe that Putin was taken aback by the Ukrainian Revolution and that his overreaction in Crimea and Donbas has caused consternation in Russia's non-aligned neighbors.

leaders have delegated authority to commanders below SACEUR to use missile defense against incoming threats

Do you have a source for this? There is nothing on the NATO or SHAPE websites...

OUTLAW 09

07-08-2016, 04:56 AM

Or it could be that the Kremlin believes that the decision has already been made and its aggressive moves are an attempt to change it...

I believe that Putin was taken aback by the Ukrainian Revolution and that his overreaction in Crimea and Donbas has caused consternation in Russia's non-aligned neighbors.

Do you have a source for this? There is nothing on the NATO or SHAPE websites...

1. that is the reason Putin is always seemingly underestimating the impact of his actions towards both Finland and Sweden...if you look at the internal polling two years ago done around the question of whether both societies wanted to join NATO...you would be surprised that the majority did not want to join but after two steady years of Russian threats, Russian nuclear strike exercises, Baltic MiG/SU over flights with their transponders off/darn near colliding with a SAS airliner on take off and harassment of the electrical power line laying ship in the Baltic that was linking Sweden to the Baltics...and virtually similar actions against Finland...then the Russians wonder why the public opinion swung against Putin..and for NATO membership...and this does not include the several spy sub adventures by the Naval Spetsnaz....

We have seen the same public opinion swing develop in Ukraine where at during the Maidan....the public polling was showing extremely low numbers wanting to join NATO but after Crimea and the invasion of eastern Ukraine and two solid years of constant fighting the latest polling's show a 78% in favor of now joining and the Ukrainians are letting the UK know THEY are fighting physically to join the EU and push back on Russian military aggression....

Why would he be surprised by the sudden majority wanting to join NATO..if anyone is to blame it is Putin himself...

2. posted comment came as a breaking news out of Warsaw NATO meeting circles....does not surprise me in the least...was an intended leak to let Russia to understand this time around that NATO was taking a firm stand on a number of issues concerning Russia and her military......

If one thinks it through it is a normal and logical Command and Control move...in previous multi national AD exercises where say Patriots, THADD and the Israeli say Iron Domes are linked...it is always the field unit commander who makes the call on inbound missiles based on the standing long in advanced approved ROE.....rules of engagement.....BTW......these ROEs are actually already approved by the National Command Authorities of each nation that participates in the missile defense shield so I am not so sure why this public statement is of interest as it just cements current command reality....

BTW the decision making is very quick after ID of the inbound missiles.

Suspect this was a not so subtle warning concerning the current Russian fielded mobile nuclear capable tactical ballistic missiles and their upgraded versions which are now coming online...probably a very elegant way to negate the Russian stated first strike use of tactical nuclear missiles as a "de-escalation strike"......which they are fully capable of in fact hitting...

IMHO..this is exactly why Russia is voicing loudly their dislike.....NATO had offered Russia from the very beginning a chance to work with NATO inside the C&C centers to counter their fears...BUT it was Putin who backed away....NATO at Warsaw just reminded him of that fact.

Putin knows fully well that their strategic ICBMs shields are not in any way effected nor their second strike ICBMs......

What many in the US decision making circles need to urgently check are the ever growing actual number of nuclear warheads over the agreed to treaty numbers.....Russia is ever so quietly increasing them I think actually wanting to see if the US slams down on them but they know the Obama/Rhodes WH will never slam them....

IF this is an accurate map and Russia & co. took the industrial complex east of Promka, the Minsk line shifts again.

OUTLAW 09

07-08-2016, 05:55 AM

Or it could be that the Kremlin believes that the decision has already been made and its aggressive moves are an attempt to change it...

I believe that Putin was taken aback by the Ukrainian Revolution and that his overreaction in Crimea and Donbas has caused consternation in Russia's non-aligned neighbors.

Do you have a source for this? There is nothing on the NATO or SHAPE websites...

Azor...will post something later today on this simple fact...Putin is deadly afraid of the "color revolts" and that is at the core of Georgia and Ukraine....why...it is exactly the Maidan events that scare him the most as Maidan showed to the Russians that they can in fact as a civil society throw off the massive Soviet style corruption and the oligarch system also a left over of the collapse of the SU....and that a civil society can in fact demand and fight for the rule of law, good governance and transparency.....

OUTLAW 09

07-08-2016, 06:07 AM

Or it could be that the Kremlin believes that the decision has already been made and its aggressive moves are an attempt to change it...

I believe that Putin was taken aback by the Ukrainian Revolution and that his overreaction in Crimea and Donbas has caused consternation in Russia's non-aligned neighbors.

Do you have a source for this? There is nothing on the NATO or SHAPE websites...

Azor...this goes to the heart of why Putin always seems to not understand NATO nor the West in general.....

Russian tabloid MK: Believing NATO battalions will protect Baltic from Russia "is like believing you can use a fly swat against a mad bear"

WHAT is missing from this statement by a Russian MSM propaganda outlet is the simple fact that it is not the numbers of troops that count BUT that that NATO BN being attacked inside a NATO member state.....

We saw this same thing during the Cold War on the inner German border...where the US Army Cavalry units both with their Cobras and ground armored mech units were constantly patrolling the inner German border ALL with the explicit knowledge that if the Soviets ever did cross over they were toast militarily speaking but their being engaged directly by Soviet troops triggered automatically NATO Article 5....and they were designed to initially to simply slow down the Soviet forces giving time for other units behind them to go to war status and get out of their bases and into defensive positions.

All NATO Cold War exercises until 1991 practiced this exact maneuver.....for example while the Cav units where being grind into the ground other NATO demo teams were destroying via prepared demo chambers all LOCs that could be used thus slowing down the Soviet Army also designed to give time for NATO to get into prepared defensive positions....all designed to hold the Rhine river as a natural defensive barrier....until the follow on of US and other NATO troops into the theater could arrive....that was the reasoning behind all the so called "Reforger" exercises.....

Many fail to remember that at the height of the Cold War say about 1975-80 there were over 450K NATO troops facing a Soviet Army plus Warsaw Pact forces of roughly the same number....

OUTLAW 09

07-08-2016, 06:27 AM

James J. Coyle: #Europe's forgotten war - fighting in the #Donbas has never stopped
http://bit.ly/29jKywl

Combined Rus-militant forces fired 56 times upon Ukr troops over the last day. 30 of the attacks were in Donetsk sector - ATO press center

Anything over 50 attacks a day is considered to be full scale warfare......this is no "Minsk 2 ceasefire" by any standards.....BUT WAIT we see the same thin in Syria...Assad declares a 72 hour regime of silence for Eid celebrations and just keeps right on bombing civilians....within minutes after the PR.....

BUT WAIT....Cyprus is the center money laundering capital of the world from Russian "black money".

When they imposed bank restrictions when they were massively struggling with bank corruption that almost forced Cyprus into total bank collapse.......the only bank not affected by the Cyprus bank reforms which demanded they pass on 30% of their assets to the government was the single bank that dealth with the Russian oligarchs....

So not much of a surprise here...especially when Russia is trying to lease basing rights for their navy in Cyprus.....

Lukashevich:Unfortunately,Kyiv appears unwilling to implement Minsk & is playing for time
pic.twitter.com/jCxGuy46Yj
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-lukashevich-unfortunately-kyiv-appears-unwilling-to …

SBU found two caches with ammunition in the area of ATO pic.twitter.com/ddYPzXvXyJ
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-sbu-found-two-caches-with-ammunition-in-the-area-of …

...Putin is always seemingly underestimating the impact of his actions towards both Finland and Sweden...the Russians wonder why the public opinion swung against Putin..and for NATO membership...We have seen the same public opinion swing develop in Ukraine where at during the Maidan....the public polling was showing extremely low numbers wanting to join NATO but after Crimea and the invasion of eastern Ukraine and two solid years of constant fighting the latest polling's show a 78% in favor of now joining....Why would he be surprised by the sudden majority wanting to join NATO..if anyone is to blame it is Putin himself...

This is why I've been hesitant to refer to Putin as a chess master as the Western press is wont to do every time he does something surprising:

The Kremlin has signaled its interest in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas since the dissolution of the Soviet Union
No Russia watcher would predict that Russia would accept the withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea
No Russia watcher would predict that Russia would ever allow Belarus or Ukraine to join NATO
The accession of the Baltic republics and Operation Allied Force were very provocative for Russia, although the West did not comprehend it at the time

Therefore, I do not find Putin's strategic actions very surprising, even if he is tactically creative.

While Bush, Jr. sacrificed all foreign policy objectives in favor of the War on Terror, during Obama's tenure, the following has happened:

Ukraine (most of it) has firmly joined the Western camp
Russia no longer has access to Ukraine's important defense industries
The SVR/GRU is out in Ukraine and Western intelligence is in
Minsk is tacking westward
Astana is tacking toward Beijing
NATO ballistic missile defense continues under a new acronym
Instead of causing trouble in the Middle East (Egypt) or Central Asia, Moscow is busy assisting clients and partners in Ukraine and Syria
Russia's economy is damaged enough to defer the 2020 modernization plan without the need for an arms race

Not bad for a community organizer and speechwriter duo, no?

...was an intended leak to let Russia to understand this time around that NATO was taking a firm stand on a number of issues concerning Russia and her military......

I interpreted this as a warning against Russian incursions into NATO airspace by Tu-95s, etc. Basically, I understood that whereas before SACEUR would instruct Polish or Danish air defenses to await orders before firing, now local commanders can shoot down stray Russian aircraft if they feel threatened...

Putin knows fully well that their strategic ICBMs shields are not in any way effected nor their second strike ICBMs......

According to CSIS (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNjvS7WruaY), it is reasonable to assume that a NATO BMD system based in East-Central Europe could whittle down Russia's second strike capability.

I am all for deploying advanced air defense systems to East-Central Europe in order to establish a NATO A2/AD zone, but I question the wisdom of NATO BMD/EPAA. If Iran is the threat, then why not establish the system in Turkey, Israel or in the Gulf States? Moreover, one would be hard pressed to explain how Iran has the intent, let alone the capability to conduct significant strikes on European NATO members. Lastly, isn't Aegis "afloat" enough?

What many in the US decision making circles need to urgently check are the ever growing actual number of nuclear warheads over the agreed to treaty numbers.....Russia is ever so quietly increasing them...

Russia's increase is more posturing than anything else, especially given the woeful state of their SLBM deterrent, and Russia does not actually have to reach the limits until 2018, if I recall.

...Putin is deadly afraid of the "color revolts" and that is at the core of Georgia and Ukraine....why...it is exactly the Maidan events that scare him the most as Maidan showed to the Russians that they can in fact as a civil society throw off the massive Soviet style corruption and the oligarch system also a left over of the collapse of the SU....and that a civil society can in fact demand and fight for the rule of law, good governance and transparency.....

This happened in 1991 during the relatively bloodless August Coup. But by 1993, Russians accepted when Yeltsin used tanks against parliament and killed 200 to 2000 people and then later launched a disastrous and bloody war in Chechnya. Many Russians think that Putin doesn't go far enough in fact, so I would be cautious about advocating his ouster (http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ca/2015/03/a-post-putin-russia-might-be-bad-news.html).

It is there to reassure Poland and the Baltics that US and allied lives are on the line as well.

We saw this same thing during the Cold War on the inner German border...where the US Army Cavalry units both with their Cobras and ground armored mech units were constantly patrolling the inner German border ALL with the explicit knowledge that if the Soviets ever did cross over they were toast militarily speaking but their being engaged directly by Soviet troops triggered automatically NATO Article 5....and they were designed to initially to simply slow down the Soviet forces giving time for other units behind them to go to war status and get out of their bases and into defensive positions. All NATO Cold War exercises until 1991 practiced this exact maneuver.....for example while the Cav units where being grind into the ground other NATO demo teams were destroying via prepared demo chambers all LOCs that could be used thus slowing down the Soviet Army also designed to give time for NATO to get into prepared defensive positions....all designed to hold the Rhine river as a natural defensive barrier....until the follow on of US and other NATO troops into the theater could arrive....that was the reasoning behind all the so called "Reforger" exercises.....Many fail to remember that at the height of the Cold War say about 1975-80 there were over 450K NATO troops facing a Soviet Army plus Warsaw Pact forces of roughly the same number....

I gather that these forces were intended to tie down the cumbersome Soviet columns at chokepoints and in built-up areas, particularly the Berlin Brigade.

I expect that in the event of a Russian invasion of the Baltic republics, that NATO forces there will be ordered to conduct asymmetric warfare and FIBA, while NATO uses stand-off weapons to destroy Russian formations in the open and deny any Russian surge across the border. I don't think NATO would risk the barrage of cross-border fire that would result from an amphibious assault as well as the escalation risks of silencing Russian firing positions on Russian soil.

I would imagine that cut-off and harassed by enemy soldiers, the Russians would eventually sue for peace, withdraw and only then would NATO reinforcements land in the Baltics.

OUTLAW 09

07-08-2016, 08:21 PM

22:47 #Horlivka @_GivNeyt_ During the last few hours, strained situation in the area of #Zaytseve-#Mayorsk. As of now, artillery salvos& AGL

Francois Hollande: "NATO has no role at all to be saying what Europe’s relations with Russia should be. For France, Russia is not an adversary, not a threat. Russia is a partner which, it is true, may sometimes, and we have seen that in Ukraine, use force which we have condemned when it annexed Crimea."

The head of NATO's military committee, Czech General Petr Pavel, tried to bridge the differences: "We must accept that Russia can be a competitor, adversary, peer or partner and probably all four at the same time."

And apparently, a cyber-attack can trigger an Article V response...

OUTLAW 09

07-09-2016, 04:54 AM

This is why I've been hesitant to refer to Putin as a chess master as the Western press is wont to do every time he does something surprising:

The Kremlin has signaled its interest in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas since the dissolution of the Soviet Union
No Russia watcher would predict that Russia would accept the withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea
No Russia watcher would predict that Russia would ever allow Belarus or Ukraine to join NATO
The accession of the Baltic republics and Operation Allied Force were very provocative for Russia, although the West did not comprehend it at the time

Therefore, I do not find Putin's strategic actions very surprising, even if he is tactically creative.

While Bush, Jr. sacrificed all foreign policy objectives in favor of the War on Terror, during Obama's tenure, the following has happened:

Ukraine (most of it) has firmly joined the Western camp
Russia no longer has access to Ukraine's important defense industries
The SVR/GRU is out in Ukraine and Western intelligence is in
Minsk is tacking westward
Astana is tacking toward Beijing
NATO ballistic missile defense continues under a new acronym
Instead of causing trouble in the Middle East (Egypt) or Central Asia, Moscow is busy assisting clients and partners in Ukraine and Syria
Russia's economy is damaged enough to defer the 2020 modernization plan without the need for an arms race

Not bad for a community organizer and speechwriter duo, no?

I interpreted this as a warning against Russian incursions into NATO airspace by Tu-95s, etc. Basically, I understood that whereas before SACEUR would instruct Polish or Danish air defenses to await orders before firing, now local commanders can shoot down stray Russian aircraft if they feel threatened...

According to CSIS (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNjvS7WruaY), it is reasonable to assume that a NATO BMD system based in East-Central Europe could whittle down Russia's second strike capability.

I am all for deploying advanced air defense systems to East-Central Europe in order to establish a NATO A2/AD zone, but I question the wisdom of NATO BMD/EPAA. If Iran is the threat, then why not establish the system in Turkey, Israel or in the Gulf States? Moreover, one would be hard pressed to explain how Iran has the intent, let alone the capability to conduct significant strikes on European NATO members. Lastly, isn't Aegis "afloat" enough?

Russia's increase is more posturing than anything else, especially given the woeful state of their SLBM deterrent, and Russia does not actually have to reach the limits until 2018, if I recall.

This happened in 1991 during the relatively bloodless August Coup. But by 1993, Russians accepted when Yeltsin used tanks against parliament and killed 200 to 2000 people and then later launched a disastrous and bloody war in Chechnya. Many Russians think that Putin doesn't go far enough in fact, so I would be cautious about advocating his ouster (http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ca/2015/03/a-post-putin-russia-might-be-bad-news.html).

It is there to reassure Poland and the Baltics that US and allied lives are on the line as well.

I gather that these forces were intended to tie down the cumbersome Soviet columns at chokepoints and in built-up areas, particularly the Berlin Brigade.

I expect that in the event of a Russian invasion of the Baltic republics, that NATO forces there will be ordered to conduct asymmetric warfare and FIBA, while NATO uses stand-off weapons to destroy Russian formations in the open and deny any Russian surge across the border. I don't think NATO would risk the barrage of cross-border fire that would result from an amphibious assault as well as the escalation risks of silencing Russian firing positions on Russian soil.

I would imagine that cut-off and harassed by enemy soldiers, the Russians would eventually sue for peace, withdraw and only then would NATO reinforcements land in the Baltics.

So you ascribe the so called list of successes of the Obama/Rhodes WH to what exactly;

1. chaos theories or
2. game theories which is what the former Greek Finance Minister ascribed to when he was dealing with his demands for 300B from the EU and end the end he lost his "game theory".

You do realize that if one waits long enough and something positive happens then history is so written then to make it appear that is was a well thought out FP.

That does not substitute for a total lack of any FP other then one based on "accidental developments".

The Ukraine is far from over and all he is trying to do is get the heck out of Dodge with "something" for his legacy...thus the Kerry statements we might be able to get something before he leaves office..."never quite defining" exactly what that "something looks like".....

Syria and the ME is just starting to get interesting and then he throws it over the fence for the next President...

This is what though one has to watch....the internal "narrative" that Russian info warriors use on their own public as that is the one that ascribes to Putin's mindset...remember Putin has "two narratives" one that he continuously uses to sell the West on that "it's your fault for all of the Ukrainian and Syrian messes" AND the other to his public of we are right and correct in what we are doing and we are being punished for wanting to be a "great and strong' Russia......and it is our right to be a "superpower" as the world has been led to long by the unipolar superpower...the US...

Huge lies in #Russia's press pretending Russia has 0 troops in #Kaliningrad & only 30,000 in Western Milt. District
https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/751619916726308864 …

OUTLAW 09

07-09-2016, 05:09 AM

BTW....the ability of the MD system does not have the range in order to hit any Russian ICBM first strike abilities nor the potential follow on ICBM threats.

Even coupled to THADD the current Ageis and Patriot PAC-3s and coupled to the Israeli MD systems simply do not have the intercept ranges needed the last time I worked with them....as they are an inbound protection system not one designed to hit on launch....

A simple fact that Putin keeps overlooking as it does not tie into his "narrative" he feeds the West and his own public.....

OUTLAW 09

07-09-2016, 05:22 AM

Azor...my concern is that a large number of these Russian info warfare "narratives" get picked up by US and western MSM and go largely unchecked or challenged.....and yes even within some so call respected MSM...

There use to be a deep Russian analysis academic ability but who studies Russian as a language anymore...I can count on three fingers individuals who I would call true Russian "analysts"....both linguistic, military and political analysts......that I would listen to and they do not sit in think tanks, and or the Obama/Rhodes WH....

Same BTW goes for Syria.

AND that much vaulted US Intel Community.....worthless when it came to Crimea.....they did not even see it comin down the highway straight at them....if it had looked like a battleship.....

Heck they cannot even state with any certainly who drops thermobaric, incendiary and cluster munitions in Syria....

Don't believe fighting has escalated in eastern Ukraine in past weeks? Have a look at latest @OSCE_SMM reports.

OUTLAW 09

07-09-2016, 05:33 AM

NATO "light humor".......

Kremlin condemns NATO's plan to deploy 1% of the amount of troops involved in average Russian snap drill to Poland

BTW...in Russian "snap drills just this year involved over 130,000 active duty Russian mainline troops....on the NATO side for the full year of exercises a total of 30,000......and a large number of these were Reservists....

Increase of attacks no.: combined Rus-militant troops fired 72 times upon Ukr troops over last day (56 the day b4) - ATO press center

OUTLAW 09

07-09-2016, 07:17 AM

More indications that the Russian economy is barely limping along...question is for how long.....????

They cannot even get their recent international bond sales registered further placing their last sovereign offer in question.....if Euroclear is questioning that is serious as they normally register all sovereign bond sales....

Russia's 10-year t-bonds have yet to be admitted for transactions by #Euroclear, according to ING report:
http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2016/07/08/648565-rossiiskih-gosbumag-euroclear …

"My life as a pro-Putin propagandist in Russia’s secret 'troll factory'"
http://educate-yourself.org/cn/Life-at-

I posted some of this last year and it is good to go back and review about Russian internet troll activities.....and it has gotten far better in the last year.....

OUTLAW 09

07-09-2016, 07:28 AM

Russian Spetsnaz is always on the move.....even in so called "peace times"....remember most of the Polish and Soviet long hauler truckers travelling in Europe doing the Cold War were also GRU Spetsnaz recon officers and KGB officers on espionage/sabotage planning missions or Polish SB and or Polish Spetsnaz officers......

A Russian rented a boat from Norway, ran it aground near Scotland. Authorities found sabotage instructions on board. https://twitter.com/Bolle_dok/status/751111107935367168 …

Russian drone over #Avdeevka. Ukrainian troops try to shoot it down right now.

21:13 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza More work of Shilka
21:13 Gunpowder odour

Heavy shelling of #Troitske last night, reports of 3 Ukrainian soldiers killed there, we will see in tomorrows ATO toll.

21:09 #Avdiivka @tiamat007 'Fireworks' here! a UAV being brought down

OUTLAW 09

07-09-2016, 06:54 PM

2,341 mln people in the U.S. use Russian #SocialMedia VKontakte & will be affected by Rus surveillance via new law.

OUTLAW 09

07-10-2016, 06:01 AM

Kremlin Paranoia Leads to Escalation in Spy War
http://wp.me/p4ja0Z-AqT

This is a natural development when one starts believing one's very own propaganda.....drinking the "Kool-Aid" is getting a tad dangerous as Putin firmly believes as does his military that they are targets of "regime change" carried out via "color revolts" and they do not fully understand why those "color revolts" actually start.....

OUTLAW 09

07-10-2016, 06:08 AM

Reference Russian shot down of MH17......

@EliotHiggins This guy saying he personally knows Russia media photographer who saw BUK in Snizne at the #MH17 day . https://twitter.com/vasilymaximov/status/751870449714429953 …

OUTLAW 09

07-10-2016, 06:12 AM

Another example of US MSM not fully understanding the Russian military buildup and threat to Central Europe......this in many aspects misleads the general public ....

Russia can't be isolated due to military buildup? But they're the ones doing the build-up.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-nato-bg-2d93e2ca-4541-11e6-a76d-3550dba926ac-20160708-story.html …

Yes Russia can be isolated the question is what does the West want in return if Putin ever did comply which BTW he will never do as he is out to destroy the West using it's own values....

Had posted earlier about a poorly done PBS release.....

'PBS NewsHour' Report on Russia/Ukraine Conflict Denounced by UCCA: The following was submitted by the Ukra...
http://bit.ly/29wZIvR

OUTLAW 09

07-10-2016, 06:14 AM

So true these days...

First They Came for the Experts: Anti-intellectual demagogues posing as populists threaten democracy.

Most exhaustive report on #Russian army tanks Т-72Б3 & Т-72БА hit and destroyed in war w #Ukraine https://twitter.com/forest_brother/status/539520449495842816 …
pic.twitter.com/lvJ6uLAjSs

OUTLAW 09

07-10-2016, 11:12 AM

‘The Great Fear’ redux

by Mark Galeotti

July 10, 2016 at 4:15 am

stalin-reborn-as-putinThere is a great deal of nonsense about “a new 1937” brewing in Russia (frankly, paralleling Putin with Stalin is both foolish and also profoundly demeaning to the memory of the millions of victims of the latter’s murder-machine). Nonetheless, bureaucratic engines of repression in authoritarian regimes do have some structural and cultural similarities, and thanks to a recent one of the excellent SRB podcast series I came across James Harris’s equally-excellent The Great Fear: Stalin's Terror of the 1930s (OUP, 2016).

A few aspects of Harris’s explanation for the bloodbath are depressingly relevant today:

The Fear. Stalin and his cohorts genuinely felt at risk and assailed, knowing that the Japanese and the Germans wanted to take their land and resources, believing the British, French and the Americans wanted to see them at war, assuming the fifth columnists at home were powerful, networked and bloodthirsty. This was not just a mobilizing propaganda theme, though it was that as well, it was a strongly held belief that inclined the regime towards more murderous and maximalist policies than otherwise might have been.

The Threat Lobby. Felix Dzerzhinsky, founder of the Soviet political police, and his successors not only tended to assume the intertwined domestic and external threats to be more serious than they were, they also had a clear bureaucratic-factional interest in talking them up. At a time when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was up in arms about the impact of the Chekists’ activities, and there was talk of tighter subordination to the organs of justice, what better time to stoke the fear, to present it as a choice between security or legal and political niceties?

The Kremlin Echo Chamber. Harris treads a fine line between the top-down and bottom-up (or strong state/weak state) explanations for the Great Purges. I’m not entirely convinced that squaring the circle by saying it was a strong state that thought itself weak quite works, although there is an undoubted elegance to the suggestion, but it is clear that most of the repression was not directed specifically from the top. Stalin was the impresario, but the performers were largely ad libbing. In this context, local agencies were often driven by the hope of correcting interpreting and predicting the Kremlin’s wishes and also the imperative to tell Moscow what it wanted to hear. Increasingly, the scope for loyal dissent shrank and shrank.

There are clear parallels today. Putin is not about to start a campaign of mass murder or try to modernise his economy on the back of slave labour, of course. But we need to recognise, even if just to help us understand and predict this regime better, the extent to which it genuinely believes itself actively threatened, not just by the impersonal forces of economics and demographics, but by Western machination. It is encouraged to do this by a security apparatus that has learned to play to the more paranoid and defensive instincts of the regime and a bureaucratic culture that seeks to identify what an often gnomic Kremlin truly wants. These were dangerous political pathologies in 1937, and they are again so today.After simulating nuke attack on Sweden, Moscow expects explanations on #NATO's reinforcement at NATO-#Russia meeting

Stoltenberg said NATO deployment to the Baltic is “open-ended”. But Russian TV reporter says he said it is “forever”

From Nato's decisions in Warsaw, Russian State TV concludes:
“Russia is no longer a partner. It’s a target”

Two #caches full of #ammunition found in #Donbas
http://goo.gl/w6N6P5

Russian-backed terrorist attack #Ukraine 72 times in last day
http://buff.ly/29w1Svp

Disturbing photos from Ru Orthodox Church march to Kyiv, military age males, some in uniform https://www.facebook.com/GetMoscowPop/photos/a.306925549494760.1073741829.277285109125471/525102944343685/?type=3&theater …

Hybrid war continues - Russian Orthodox Church mobilizes faithful. Kremlin still has many levers of influence in UA https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/752207289348677635 …

All 9 entries of the RuNet open source research guide can be found here, along with a handy PDF, on @runetecho.
https://globalvoices.org/2016/07/11/russia-youve-read-our-open-source-research-guidebook-now-lets-use-it/ …

West Must Take Seriously Putin’s Talk about Restoring Moscow’s Influence over All Post-Soviet States, Grybauskaite Says

Paul Goble

Staunton, July 11 – The West must not dismiss Vladimir Putin’s statements about restoring Moscow’s influence over the territory of the former USSR as “paranoid” or delusional because those statements reflect his real thinking and thus the basis for his current and future actions, according to Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite.

In an interview with “Spiegel,” the Lithuanian leader says that Putin will use “all means,” including propaganda and economic pressure, to achieve his oft-stated goal by acting against what the Kremlin views as the weakest links among the post-Soviet states (spiegel.de/politik/ausland/litauens-praesidentin-grybauskaite-im-interview-putins-paranoia-ernst-nehmen-a-1102262.html and eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2016/07/11/7051925/).

At the same time, Grybaukaite urged both the West and Russia’s neighbors to avoid becoming paralyzed by fear. “I don’t like the word ‘fear,’” she said, adding that “we lived under Soviet occupation and we know that this neighbor is [both] unpredictable and capable of attacking” its neighbors.

Pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk publish propaganda video with very young girls in military uniforms
https://www.facebook.com/TheRusBear/videos/977138432381545/ …

OUTLAW 09

07-11-2016, 03:55 PM

Maxim Eristavi hier: Warschau.

8. Juli um 09:22 ·

At first we got on a wrong foot with my country. Coming from extremely poor background in Ukraine of turbulent 1990s, as a kid I was robbed of many social, economic and educational opportunities. Not only poverty, but also state and societal refusal to recognize me as equal, because I happen to born gay, robbed me of confidence as well. So many kids who go through the same path usually become chronically angry. I developed a 24/7 anger as well. What I did differently, though, is the channeling of this anger. When I was 16 I've decided to become a journalist as I felt that exposing the truth and social injustice would make ease my anger a bit. Now, 14 years later, I've realized this has saved my life from a frustration trap. Yesterday, after my Future NATO speech in Warsaw, a young 16-year old kid approached me to shake hands. He is a Ukrainian studying at local school and was drawn to the conference when heard that young Ukrainians might give speech there as well. It was remarkable to see such a young fellow looking for answers that his generation will face in coming years. I'm sure he feels the same anger about enormous injustice surrounding us. He is just channeling that anger differently - by looking for fixes. Then, suddenly, I saw myself in that young kid, but 14 years ago: unsatisfied with what the surrounding reality offers me, relentless in finding answers and looking up for inspiration in people, who just won't budge in face of injustice. There was that small life circle completing itself in our brief handshake. That 16-year old me is still well and alive somewhere inside me. He is the sole reason I never give up.

“Quietly but summarily, the administration of President Obama has informed Kyiv that it wants to see elections in Donbas before Obama leaves office”

Nuland is urging compliance with Ukraine’s political “obligations” under the Minsk “agreement.”

Kerry and Nuland’s joint visit on July 7, however, has added urgency and even impatience to Kerry’s tone, reflecting the Barack Obama administration’s rush to show results before the November presidential election in the United States

By the logic and sequence of steps proposed, Ukraine would make pre-emptive, irreversible sacrifices of sovereignty, without any assurance that Russian forces would withdraw or that the two armed “people’s republics” would abdicate. Almost certainly they would not.

The West may help Russia enforce those political provisions on Ukraine, but the same Western powers cannot help Ukraine enforce those military provisions on Russia.

“Quietly but summarily, the administration of President Obama has informed Kyiv that it wants to see elections in Donbas before Obama leaves office”

Nuland is urging compliance with Ukraine’s political “obligations” under the Minsk “agreement.”

Kerry and Nuland’s joint visit on July 7, however, has added urgency and even impatience to Kerry’s tone, reflecting the Barack Obama administration’s rush to show results before the November presidential election in the United States

By the logic and sequence of steps proposed, Ukraine would make pre-emptive, irreversible sacrifices of sovereignty, without any assurance that Russian forces would withdraw or that the two armed “people’s republics” would abdicate. Almost certainly they would not.

The West may help Russia enforce those political provisions on Ukraine, but the same Western powers cannot help Ukraine enforce those military provisions on Russia.

Thanks Azor....there has been a tremendous disconnect between WHAT the Obama/Rhodes WH DOES and actually says it does referencing eastern Ukraine...the recent "flood" of US money and assistance programs made during the NATO Warsaw summit was an attempt to "buy" the Ukraine....

Kerry and Nuland have repeatedly attempted to pressure Ukraine into unilateral appeasement moves IMHO to "give Putin a face saving win"...WITHOUT a single reciprocal move guarantee to be made by Russia/Putin.

Minsk 2 has two equal parts; 1) a number of political actions and 2) a number of military actions that must be conducted prior to the implementation of the political actions.

So was the marching orders provided by Germany and France at the Minsk 2 talks which Putin then massively ignored when he continued the strong Russian Army attack on Debalsteve.....using BTW Russian regular Siberian units....

Obama/Rhodes WH simply wants a "legacy win" for both eastern Ukraine and Syria thus they are willing to give Putin virtually anything he wants...we see the utter lack of any comment by the US on the Russian use of thermobaric, cluster and incendiaries on civilians in Syria and he said virtually nothing on the large scale Russian attacks which were ongoing during the NATO Summit....

THAT Obama/Rhodes, Nuland and Kerry try to "sell" this to Ukraine in the face of a civil society that fought in Maidan to ditch Russia leads me to believe they have no earthly idea of what they are doing in FP these days.

The Ukrainian public after two years of solid war and the their loses would not tolerate any Ukrainian politician giving an inch of the Donbas to Russia and or allow Russia to stop their moves to NATO and the EU.

The last polling indicated that 78% of the public supports now NATO and even higher for EU membership with their visa free travel coming in OCT....

Right after Maidan that figure was at a whopping 19%..for NATO.

WHAT amazes me is that both Nuland and Kerry when called out for the comments they make when in Ukraine ...meaning we the US is in fact pressuring Ukraine to make appeasement moves....THEY then when social media gets wind of the comments STATE..."we never said and or alluded to that"......

Both have been basically lying for over two years now.....and now panic when they cannot get Ukraine to move in the remaining time left for Obama/Rhodes to create even more confusion....

YET not a single US MSM calls the Obama/Rhodes WH nor calls out Kerry and Nuland on this......

Maybe the Obama/Rhodes WH, Nuland and Kerry would do well to sit down and reread the Minsk 2 Agreements.....signed by the way without an American representative being there as there is also no US representation in the Normandy Four meetings....as Putin effectively blocked the US from participating in both.....

BUT WAIT...the Obama/Rhodes WH was never interested in actually participating from the very beginning as they viewed the problem being a European problem not one for the US to get involved in....

• Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment as of 00.00 midnight (Kiev time) on Feb. 15, 2015.

• Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70km for MLRS and 140 kilometres for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch and tactical missile systems Tochka U.

– for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;

– for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk memorandum as of Sept. 19, 2014

• The pullout of the above mentioned heavy weapons has to start no later than the second day after the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.

• This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.

• Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.

• On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” and also about the future of these districts based on the above mentioned law.

• Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of Sept. 19, 2014.

• Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular departments of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine.

• Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of “all for all”. This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).

• Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.

• Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field)

• With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.

• Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfilment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

• Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

• Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with the new Constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the footnotes, by the end of 2015.

Putin has not fulfilled a single point of Minsk 2, there is no true ceasefire and no full exchange of POWs.....with 50-80 attacks daily...AND Russia and her mercenaries never did fully withdraw heir heavy weapons under OSCE verification and controls.....and Russia keeps sending troops, mercenaries, heavy weapons, fuel and munitions into eastern Ukraine AND hinders OSCE almost daily.

So exactly just how is Ukraine to hold "fair and democratic elections under Ukrainian law" in a Russian occupied zone....there is not a single historical event that indicates this would be successful....

“Quietly but summarily, the administration of President Obama has informed Kyiv that it wants to see elections in Donbas before Obama leaves office”

Nuland is urging compliance with Ukraine’s political “obligations” under the Minsk “agreement.”

Kerry and Nuland’s joint visit on July 7, however, has added urgency and even impatience to Kerry’s tone, reflecting the Barack Obama administration’s rush to show results before the November presidential election in the United States

By the logic and sequence of steps proposed, Ukraine would make pre-emptive, irreversible sacrifices of sovereignty, without any assurance that Russian forces would withdraw or that the two armed “people’s republics” would abdicate. Almost certainly they would not.

The West may help Russia enforce those political provisions on Ukraine, but the same Western powers cannot help Ukraine enforce those military provisions on Russia.

NOW Kerry is trying to truly rewrite history....as the Obama WH was never going to go this far.....all of their actions in 2014 and 2015 indicate they were doing actually the direct opposite....

.@JohnKerry in March 2014: US & G8 nations are "prepared to go to the hilt to isolate #Russia" https://twitter.com/Russializer/status/752720236928008193 …

Outlaw 09 may agree with many Germans on the value of the European Union ;), but Germans clearly disagree with him on the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. Despite the pressure that Merkel has put on European cohesion with her disastrous border and migration policies, it is difficult to imagine her successor taking a harder line with Russia. Many German leaders, Steinmeier included, would love for the Ukrainian issue to just go away so that they can expand Nord Stream and go back to business as usual.

See here from Der Spiegel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-efforts-to-boost-force-in-baltics-will-not-boost-security-a-1102578-druck.html

Below are the juicy excerpts:

The hawks would seem to be setting the tone at the moment. Russia is an "existential threat," NATO's then-top military commander, Philip Breedlove -- who also adopted a hardline position during the height of the Ukraine crisis -- said not long ago. This spring, Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski said that Russia represents a greater risk to Europe than Islamic State. And at the beginning of June, the Danish NATO officer Jakob Larsen publicly suggested that "we need to learn to fight total war again." Larsen commands NATO's advance post in Lithuania and apparently isn't aware that the last call for "total war" was made in Germany during the infamous 1943 speech delivered in a Berlin sports stadium by Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.

Are we to assume that a country that has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, which openly talks about using them even in limited conflicts, which openly talks about targeting non-nuclear NATO member states, and which has conducted more than one simulated nuclear strike on a neighbor is not more of a threat than a terrorist group mostly contained in the Middle East?

The concept of total war was not invented by Goebbels and pre-dates World War II. Larsen could just as easily be referring to a whole-of-government approach, which would be required to counter hybrid warfare. According to Wiegrefe then, NATO is rife with hawks and Fascists...

Ten years ago, two American researchers caused
a stir by performing a computer simulation of a US attack on Russia and publishing their findings in Foreign Affairs. According to the article, Washington possessed the capability to eliminate Russia's nuclear capability...the piece argued that the US was about to achieve nuclear primacy. For some time, the US Air Force and Navy have been touting a new generation of conventional weapons for the realization of a capability known as Prompt Global Strike.

Firstly, an open-source back-of-the-envelope analysis from ten years ago regarding the US benefiting from the Russian strategic C4ISR being in shambles has naught to do with NATO-Russian relations today. Secondly, Prompt Global Strike has not gone far since its initial conception, and the United States, Russia and especially China are all working on hypersonic glide vehicles.

Absolute security for one side translates to absolute insecurity for all other powers. Putin has already announced that he will react to the new NATO moves with countermeasures. The declared goal of NATO's more robust presence is that of making the eastern edge of the Western alliance more secure. It is legitimate to doubt whether NATO will achieve that goal.

NATO is not seeking to achieve local superiority, let alone supremacy, in the Baltic region, especially given that the affected countries border Russia's Western Military District. However, it is incumbent on NATO to ensure that: (a) a "hybrid" or less-than-Article V conflict in the Baltics is unattractive to Russia; and (b) that the Baltic republics feel assured that NATO will defend them as much as say Germany.

OUTLAW 09

07-13-2016, 06:17 AM

Outlaw 09 may agree with many Germans on the value of the European Union ;), but Germans clearly disagree with him on the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. Despite the pressure that Merkel has put on European cohesion with her disastrous border and migration policies, it is difficult to imagine her successor taking a harder line with Russia. Many German leaders, Steinmeier included, would love for the Ukrainian issue to just go away so that they can expand Nord Stream and go back to business as usual.

See here from Der Spiegel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-efforts-to-boost-force-in-baltics-will-not-boost-security-a-1102578-druck.html

Below are the juicy excerpts:

Are we to assume that a country that has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, which openly talks about using them even in limited conflicts, which openly talks about targeting non-nuclear NATO member states, and which has conducted more than one simulated nuclear strike on a neighbor is not more of a threat than a terrorist group mostly contained in the Middle East?

The concept of total war was not invented by Goebbels and pre-dates World War II. Larsen could just as easily be referring to a whole-of-government approach, which would be required to counter hybrid warfare. According to Wiegrefe then, NATO is rife with hawks and Fascists...

Firstly, an open-source back-of-the-envelope analysis from ten years ago regarding the US benefiting from the Russian strategic C4ISR being in shambles has naught to do with NATO-Russian relations today. Secondly, Prompt Global Strike has not gone far since its initial conception, and the United States, Russia and especially China are all working on hypersonic glide vehicles.

NATO is not seeking to achieve local superiority, let alone supremacy, in the Baltic region, especially given that the affected countries border Russia's Western Military District. However, it is incumbent on NATO to ensure that: (a) a "hybrid" or less-than-Article V conflict in the Baltics is unattractive to Russia; and (b) that the Baltic republics feel assured that NATO will defend them as much as say Germany.

Azor....you bring up a number of interesting points concerning the German split personality ..........

Remember the German "baby boomer" generation post 1968 was raised to hate and loathe war and BTW a number of those born in say 1933-37 were old enough to remember spending their nights in bomb shelters and the march of the Soviet Army into Berlin based on their parents Nazi history and that expressed itself in the German student movement SDS.....which was a generational break with their own parents and with the German society as a whole up to 1968....ie in German universities in the 60s male students had to wear a tie and literally had to bow down to the Professors...a hangover from the 30s....

Coupled with a hefty anti VN war movement as I do remember their marches down the Ku-dam by the thousands waving NLF and VC flags chanting Ho, Ho, Ho chi-Minh...until they ran into the water cannons of the riot police.

That same student movement turned then into a general anti war anti military movement in the 80s with their Stop the Bomb railroad demos when the US was shipping bombs from Bremerhaven to the USAF bases and then it was against the stationing of the US cruise missiles...BUT when the Wall came down so died at the same time this energized student and baby boomer generation. This coupled at the same time with a strong anti nuclear power plant movement which led to a massive riot that was fought literally in a forest with thousands of demonstrators and an equal number of riot police.

Now jump forward and you have a complete new generation in their 30-40s that is politically unmotivated about anything outside of earning money and enjoying life in general.

Then along comes an existential threat which they cannot comprehend as they are not from the Cold War days and their inherent lack to get motivated politically about anything.

Except Pocomon Go where they will have a demo to demand it be released in Germany led by over 2000 teenagers....

Right now many of those that I know that are still politically active openly complain about the total lack of German interest in anything political...

NOW jump into the current German politics and you will notice that those that want to move back to business as usual are from the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) and those in that party in their 40-60s....driven by what I call simply greed. Remember the SPD is basically a tad to the left and had a close socialist/communist past thus an inherent affinity for Russia.

The former SPD leader Schroeder has made a ton of money by being named by the Russians to the Nordstream 1 board and their FM is a lackluster politician not well liked by Merkel as he states things that often have not been cleared by her ie his recent critique of NATO as a "warmonger sable rattling organization..

Right now the SPD has in polling slipped under 21% and for a party that polled in the 40-50% in the Cold War days...that is a major loss.

And based on the recent federal elections and with the increased number of populist parties polling in the 12-15% ranges you are seeing the SPD slip badly into 3rd and or 4th position with the newly elected governments being Centrist to Green or what they call Black Green governments.

Merkel and her CDU has though starting polling upwards in a strong move as the public now is seeing her as a stability factor and as they have become more open to the refugee issues.

Part of the refugee problem was that the numbers initially overwhelmed the government and they had no messaging and narrative e for the public to accommodate the sheer numbers...since then the government has caught up, has a solid integration program in place and is controlling tighter and tighter and thus the confidence of the public increases...

Notice the comments made by Merkel during the Warsaw Summit....some of the strongest ever made by a German leader against Putin...BTW not even matched by Obama.

The Russian sanctions will hold in the EU as long as Merkel holds the line as the EU knows who the EU paymaster is...thus the drive by the SPD to try to do workarounds ie the new NordStream......

BTW....recent polling as late as last week clearly shows over 54% of Germans are now naming Russia as a serious threat to Germany.....up from say about 14% during Crimea...and remember Russia has now made Germany a prime info warfare target as it has a large Russian community and a large Russian mafia community.....and the FSB has been working Germany hard since 1991.

That increase is due namely to the constant reporting by the German MSM newspaper BILD which is about the only one carry a constant stream of reporting on both eastern Ukraine and Syria and the Russian actions in both those locations.

BILD recently received a ruffle by the German Press Institute for supposedly false reporting and then BILD blasted back with photo after photo and totally fact checked articles and the Agency went totally silent...and BILD is correcting and calling out the mistakes made often by the German national news channels....earning them the direct Russian info warfare directed by RT and TASS....

So all in all do not write off the German public as not wanting to do anything except "business as usual"...they have indeed caught the curve...it will be interesting to see where they go in the coming years...especially as they slowly rearm and rebuild their military to match the now perceived Russian threat.

BUT one thing is a given for sure...with the exit of the UK from the EU...the next US President will be forced to work ever closer with Germany something that did not happen under the Obama/Rhodes WH....

“Quietly but summarily, the administration of President Obama has informed Kyiv that it wants to see elections in Donbas before Obama leaves office”

Nuland is urging compliance with Ukraine’s political “obligations” under the Minsk “agreement.”

Kerry and Nuland’s joint visit on July 7, however, has added urgency and even impatience to Kerry’s tone, reflecting the Barack Obama administration’s rush to show results before the November presidential election in the United States

By the logic and sequence of steps proposed, Ukraine would make pre-emptive, irreversible sacrifices of sovereignty, without any assurance that Russian forces would withdraw or that the two armed “people’s republics” would abdicate. Almost certainly they would not.

The West may help Russia enforce those political provisions on Ukraine, but the same Western powers cannot help Ukraine enforce those military provisions on Russia.

Azor...BTW...a solid catch on info....as this closes and explains why there was a sudden rash of "hardcore statements" made by the Ukrainian President and his FM during the NATO Warsaw Summit on what has to be done before elections can be held in eastern Ukraine along with a security implementation plan for the occupied zone...

Which you know Russia will reject as it does not fit their "political demands".

THEN surprise, surprise Merkel issued a series of strong statements against the current overall Russian activities in central Europe and why the sanctions are and will be in place until there is a complete ceasefire and Russia starts to implement truly Minsk 2.

Basically she backed fully the Ukrainian position and notice it was made by her not her FM who basically uttered not a single statement during the Summit especially after his NATO "hit job"......

Merkel has something going for her that no US President has...she grew up in the former GDR, she speaks fluent Russian and fully understands Putin's mindset.....

OUTLAW 09

07-13-2016, 07:25 AM

Azor....you bring up a number of interesting points concerning the German split personality ..........

Remember the German "baby boomer" generation post 1968 was raised to hate and loathe war and BTW a number of those born in say 1933-37 were old enough to remember spending their nights in bomb shelters and the march of the Soviet Army into Berlin based on their parents Nazi history and that expressed itself in the German student movement SDS.....which was a generational break with their own parents and with the German society as a whole up to 1968....ie in German universities in the 60s male students had to wear a tie and literally had to bow down to the Professors...a hangover from the 30s....

Coupled with a hefty anti VN war movement as I do remember their marches down the Ku-dam by the thousands waving NLF and VC flags chanting Ho, Ho, Ho chi-Minh...until they ran into the water cannons of the riot police.

That same student movement turned then into a general anti war anti military movement in the 80s with their Stop the Bomb railroad demos when the US was shipping bombs from Bremerhaven to the USAF bases and then it was against the stationing of the US cruise missiles...BUT when the Wall came down so died at the same time this energized student and baby boomer generation. This coupled at the same time with a strong anti nuclear power plant movement which led to a massive riot that was fought literally in a forest with thousands of demonstrators and an equal number of riot police.

Now jump forward and you have a complete new generation in their 30-40s that is politically unmotivated about anything outside of earning money and enjoying life in general.

Then along comes an existential threat which they cannot comprehend as they are not from the Cold War days and their inherent lack to get motivated politically about anything.

Except Pocomon Go where they will have a demo to demand it be released in Germany led by over 2000 teenagers....

Right now many of those that I know that are still politically active openly complain about the total lack of German interest in anything political...

NOW jump into the current German politics and you will notice that those that want to move back to business as usual are from the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) and those in that party in their 40-60s....driven by what I call simply greed. Remember the SPD is basically a tad to the left and had a close socialist/communist past thus an inherent affinity for Russia.

The former SPD leader Schroeder has made a ton of money by being named by the Russians to the Nordstream 1 board and their FM is a lackluster politician not well liked by Merkel as he states things that often have not been cleared by her ie his recent critique of NATO as a "warmonger sable rattling organization..

Right now the SPD has in polling slipped under 21% and for a party that polled in the 40-50% in the Cold War days...that is a major loss.

And based on the recent federal elections and with the increased number of populist parties polling in the 12-15% ranges you are seeing the SPD slip badly into 3rd and or 4th position with the newly elected governments being Centrist to Green or what they call Black Green governments.

Merkel and her CDU has though starting polling upwards in a strong move as the public now is seeing her as a stability factor and as they have become more open to the refugee issues.

Part of the refugee problem was that the numbers initially overwhelmed the government and they had no messaging and narrative e for the public to accommodate the sheer numbers...since then the government has caught up, has a solid integration program in place and is controlling tighter and tighter and thus the confidence of the public increases...

Notice the comments made by Merkel during the Warsaw Summit....some of the strongest ever made by a German leader against Putin...BTW not even matched by Obama.

The Russian sanctions will hold in the EU as long as Merkel holds the line as the EU knows who the EU paymaster is...thus the drive by the SPD to try to do workarounds ie the new NordStream......

BTW....recent polling as late as last week clearly shows over 54% of Germans are now naming Russia as a serious threat to Germany.....up from say about 14% during Crimea...and remember Russia has now made Germany a prime info warfare target as it has a large Russian community and a large Russian mafia community.....and the FSB has been working Germany hard since 1991.

That increase is due namely to the constant reporting by the German MSM newspaper BILD which is about the only one carry a constant stream of reporting on both eastern Ukraine and Syria and the Russian actions in both those locations.

BILD recently received a ruffle by the German Press Institute for supposedly false reporting and then BILD blasted back with photo after photo and totally fact checked articles and the Agency went totally silent...and BILD is correcting and calling out the mistakes made often by the German national news channels....earning them the direct Russian info warfare directed by RT and TASS....

So all in all do not write off the German public as not wanting to do anything except "business as usual"...they have indeed caught the curve...it will be interesting to see where they go in the coming years...especially as they slowly rearm and rebuild their military to match the now perceived Russian threat.

BUT one thing is a given for sure...with the exit of the UK from the EU...the next US President will be forced to work ever closer with Germany something that did not happen under the Obama/Rhodes WH....

Azor...an example on just how BILD is driving their reporting on both eastern Ukraine and Syria......they are head and shoulders above NYTs and WaPo.....and it is fact checked and fact checked......and then fact checked....

Dear journalists & editors of English speaking online news portals around the world.
@BILD offers you a free article on the siege of #Aleppo

In some aspects BILD is about the only European MSM that fully reinvented itself after the Wall came down and is being accepted now as a valid German "political newspaper" that comments on current affairs in an open direct manner.

Azor...this came in this morning....

Almost 60% of Germans think refugees will make the country stronger because of their work and talents. @pewresearch

OUTLAW 09

07-13-2016, 07:56 AM

Orthodox procession in Ukraine ‘not a road to Kyiv but to Constantinople,’ Portnikov says
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/07/13/orthodox-procession-in-ukraine-not-a-road-to-kyiv-but-to-constantinople-portnikov-says/ …

Summary of & link to @AricToler 9-part How to Conduct Open-Source Research on the Russian Internet
https://globalvoices.org/specialcoverage/how-to-conduct-open-source-research-on-the-russian-internet/ …

Investment in Crimean Resorts has Fallen by ‘Order of Magnitude’ Since Occupation Liyev Says
http://www.interpretermag.com/july-11-2016-2/#14555 …

The #Russia|n "Firehose of Falsehood" #Propaganda Model
Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It
http://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html?adbsc=social_20160712_911641&adbid=752928014149627904&adbpl=tw&adbpr=22545453 …

OUTLAW 09

07-13-2016, 02:00 PM

Tomorrow - last day of ultimatum by DNR chief Zakharchenko to appoint elections date at Donbas.

OUTLAW 09

07-13-2016, 04:24 PM

Only 1 Ukrainian soldier was killed and 4 wounded over the last 24 hours
...
"ONLY"!!!
...
Yes, we are down to this.

OUTLAW 09

07-13-2016, 04:34 PM

NATO says "there was not a meeting of the minds today" at NATO/RUSSIA COUNCIL on issue of #Ukraine.

NATO says #Russia proposed risk reduction for air safety and use of transponders in #Baltic region.

Russia plotting offensive operations in Donbas - Turchynov Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Oleksandr Turchynov said that the Russian leadership is seeking to completely disrupt the implementation of the Minsk agreements by increasing the number of attacks on Ukrainian forces and boosting operations of its subversive groups in Donbas.

Turchynov told of Russia’s plans to disrupt the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Turchynov visited the frontline of the Ukrainian defenses in connection with the escalation in the east of Ukraine, according to the press service of the NSDC. As noted in the report, the secretary held a working meeting with the military commanders of the Anti-Terrorist Operation and inspected the combat readiness of the Ukrainian military units in the area of the Ukrainian strategic stronghold at the Azov Sea Mariupol, visited the outposts in Shyrokine and other areas on the southern defensive lines.

NSDC tells how Russia makes Donbas test ground for new military technologyAccording to Turchynov, the Russian occupation troops of the "1st and 2nd Army Corps" have significantly increased the number of attacks, which “defiantly disregard the agreements on the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the contact line." "The enemy uses 152-mm and 122-mm artillery, 120-millimeter mortars, and MLRS’s banned by the Minsk deal in daily shellings," said the secretary, adding that the activity the of professionally trained sabotage and reconnaissance groups and snipers increased significantly.

NSDC Secretary stressed that the enemy was spotted setting up specialized mobile mortar groups "specializing in striking the military and civilian targets, firing taking into consideration the patrol routes of the monitoring teams [of the OSCE SMM]."

Turchynov: Evidence of Russia's war against Ukraine can be found on Putin's website"All those provocative actions lead to more losses among the ATO forces as well as civilian casualties and, according to the Kremlin leadership, are designed to completely disrupt any progress under the Minsk agreements," Turchynov said.

The highest intensity of enemy fire is recorded at Donetsk and Mariupol directions. According to the NSDC secretary, the occupation forces are being intensively supplied with arms, ammunition, and fuel. Operating reserves are being created. "All of this is confirms that the Russian General Staff is preparing offensive operations," he said, stressing that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready to give an adequate response to any provocations by the aggressor.

A “delegation of foreign observers from Finland and Serbia” has visited the so-called ‘Donetsk people’s republic’ [DNR] as part of an elaborate, if farcical, attempt by the Kremlin-backed militants to bypass the commitments agreed in Minsk for holding local elections. Instead of providing the compliance with the Minsk Accords that would enable the holding of real elections, the militants have blamed Ukraine’s government for preventing them, and is instead planning to hold what it calls ‘preliminary elections’ or ‘primaries’.

Such ‘primaries’, the militant leader Alexander Zakharchenko claimed back in May 2016, will enable selection of “the worthiest candidates for local elections”. He asserted that those later elections would then be held in accordance with the Minsk Agreement. Such ‘primaries’ are, however in themselves, a breach of that agreement which stipulates that the elections must comply with Ukrainian law, without the militants determining in advance who takes part.

The May 23 report posted on the DNR news agency website quoted an unnamed source close to Zakharchenko as saying that the decision had been taken after a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s advisor Vladislav Surkov. He is widely understood to be in charge of dealing with the militants Moscow claims officially to have nothing to do with. Surkov was reported to have approved the plan for ‘primaries’ and intended to recommend them for the ‘Luhansk people’s republic’ [LNR] as well.

The whole process was presented then as “good training”. Denis Pushilin, another DNR leader and participant in the Minsk talks, claimed that they would elicit “a positive reaction in Russia, the EU and USA” who were supposed to understand that this was a step towards implementation of the Minsk complex of measures.

Appreciation of such a ‘step’ was, admittedly made unlikely by Zakharchenko’s aggressive rejection of any international armed mission ensuring safety at the elections. He threatened to attack any such mission as “aggression against DNR.

If you listened to DNR ‘acting foreign minister’ Natalya Nikonorova talking about the ‘primaries’ and the role of the ‘foreign observers’ on July 11, you could be temporarily deceived. It all sounded wonderful, with assurances about “fair, transparent, unbiased coverage of the process”, “equal access”, etc.

The visit of Bäckman, together with Serbian nationalists Miodrag Zarković, Goran Milenković and Dejan Dzakula, was important, she claimed, “since the presence of foreign observers at any vote increases the level of trust to the process itself. We welcome the decision of the Europeans to visit the Donetsk people’s republic and hope that in their conclusions they will give us specific recommendations on holding the vote in accordance with all international norms and standards”. The current delegation was soon to be joined by “representatives of Germany, Italy, Romania, France and other European countries”.

The addresses given by both Bäckman and Zarković left little doubt about what kind of “impartial coverage” they were there to provide.

Speaking in Russian, Bäckman, described by all DNR sources as a “famous human rights activist, political analyst and civic activist, spoke of how a new state was in the process of being formed. The West was unhappy about this, he asserted, and there was constant aggression from Ukraine against the population of Donbas. Bäckman claims that Ukraine’s main aim is “to stop democratic processes in Donbas”. He says that he has been in DNR a number of times “during the first two years of the young republic” and is basically effusive in his praise.

Zarković was equally positive, though seemingly less aware of where he was, stating that this “is the first time I’m in Russia, or Belarus”.

All the visitors had, doubtless, crossed illegally into Ukraine from Russia. We can only speculate whether they received the generous treatment of those ‘observers’ brought to Donbas via Moscow for the first illegal ‘elections’ at the beginning of November 2014.

Those ‘elections’ were treated with all seriousness by the Russian media with much made of the ‘international observers’ present, with Russia Today claiming there to be as many as 300. The day before it was announced that these observers were from something called ASCE [the Agency for Security and Cooperation in Europe]. This was an obvious attempt to deceive people since the name sounds very similar to the OSCE, which unlike ‘ASCE’ does exist. Like during the Crimean ‘referendum’, there were a number of invited ‘observers’ from far-right or Stalinist parties, all with a pronounced pro-Kremlin position.

There were also vegetables in abundance. These were almost certainly brought in specially by one of the Russia’s so-called ‘humanitarian convoys’, and sold like in Soviet days, 3 bags per person, with this used to entice people to take part in the ‘vote’. News of Donbas reported that you could vote by presenting a copy of your passport, rather than the original and where you wanted. For the free refreshments and cheap vegetables, people may well have ‘voted’ many times.

Even Russia in the end found it best not to recognize the ‘electoral results’ of such a market day event. By then, however, all the ‘observers’ had managed to find it all impeccably democratic. As Bäckman & Co made quite clear at the press conference on Monday, the same can be expected from them.

While the ‘observers’ and the militants themselves are all out to prove that Ukraine is stopping the elections, in January this year Zakharchenko stated that Ukrainian parties would not be allowed to take part in their local elections.

Then on March 18, he categorically rejected any elections held in accordance with Ukrainian legislation, but claimed that they would be “according to international OSCE standards”.

The rhetoric about OSCE standards is meaningless and not only because it breaches the above commitment. OSCE standards ensure universal suffrage; equal participation of all parties; non-discriminatory access of all media, etc. So does Ukrainian legislation and so must any separate law. This is what neither the militants, nor Moscow, are willing to accept.

Azor

07-13-2016, 10:20 PM

Almost 60% of Germans think refugees will make the country stronger because of their work and talents. @pewresearch

Most Germans believe that migrants will increase the likelihood of terrorism and that Muslims want to be “distinct” (July 11, 2016 (http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/07/11/europeans-fear-wave-of-refugees-will-mean-more-terrorism-fewer-jobs/))

The fact that Germans believe that their economy and social system can handle the migrant inflows does not mean that they believe the migrants have essential skills, which they usually do not.

Part of the refugee problem was that the numbers initially overwhelmed the government and they had no messaging and narrative e for the public to accommodate the sheer numbers...since then the government has caught up, has a solid integration program in place and is controlling tighter and tighter and thus the confidence of the public increases...

Yet Merkel made Germany a target for these flows. Early on, the European Union could have taken a hard line against migrant flows of which only 1/3 were genuine refugees fleeing war. The EU could have directed funds to support border control and refugee housing in Greece, potentially helping the Greek economy, and negotiated a deal with Turkey many months sooner. There is a reason these migrants are targeting Germany, the UK and Sweden as opposed to Hungary, Poland or France…

The public narrative was that accepting one million unemployed young men with little to no skills (but EUR 3,000 to 10,000) was an act of generosity to help offset Germany’s historical sins.

Nor am I convinced that there is a “solid integration program” other than to seal off the shelters from the public, censor reporting of migrant crimes and hope that the CDU’s open border policy is a lesser evil than what the SPD would propose.

Basically she [Merkel] backed fully the Ukrainian position…Merkel has something going for her that no US President has...she grew up in the former GDR, she speaks fluent Russian and fully understands Putin's mindset.....

I still wonder how much of this is opposition to Russian aggression, and how much is merely supporter for EU expansion into Ukraine. When I think about the EU’s overreach in Ukraine, I am reminded of Germany’s overt and covert contacts with the Croatians during the Yugoslav Wars and then the KLA during the Kosovo War.

Except Pocomon [sic] Go where they will have a demo to demand it be released in Germany

Apparently, Pokemon Go was released in Rostov in March of 2014. Unfortunately, the PokeStops were located about 100 miles northwest…

I am glad that you bring up German opposition to the Vietnam War and the deployment of American nuclear weapons to Germany, as there is a continuum to German demonstrations against the Iraq War and NSA spying. The West Germans certainly did not protest the Soviet War in Afghanistan or Soviet deployment of nuclear weapons to East Germany with the same vigor; nor did the Germans take much notice of Georgia or Ukraine.

I would argue that this is the result of the German defeat in 1945 and its post-war occupation.

The Red Army’s war crimes in eastern Germany and especially Berlin, were absolutely horrendous. To add insult to injury, the Soviets annexed East Prussia, installed a pro-Soviet Stalinist regime and helped murder its opposition, built a wall around East Germany and stripped it of valuables, occupied it for over 50 years and threatened West Berlin and West Germany with invasion and nuclear destruction. At the end of the occupation, the Soviets had to grant East Germany its independence and bless German unification. Are the Russians of today remorseful for any of the crimes they committed? No. Are they willing to discuss any of it? No. Do they continue to occupy East Prussia? Yes. Do they continue to threaten Germany? Yes.

In comparison, the Western Allies allowed for a democratic and pluralistic society to form in West Germany. They stimulated West Germany with funding and organizational know-how, kept their forces mainly disciplined, supplied West Berlin during the blockade, allowed for the free movement of Germans across borders, protected West Germany’s territorial integrity, and ultimately treated it as an independent ally. This all sounds very good, but it channels German resentment at defeat (there, I said it) in the wrong direction. If Germans accuse Americans of stealing their intellectual property, committing crimes (murder, rape theft) or acting as an occupier, Americans actually listen. Basically of the two “ex-husbands”, Russia is the angry violent drunk and the United States is the nice guy (relatively speaking). Germany is still afraid of Russia and ashamed at her humiliation at Russian hands, and so she walks on eggshells around Russia lest she need to wear the dark sunglasses again. But the United States? Well, he’ll apologize for not bringing flowers or showing up late or hanging out with the boys, even if he gets chirpy sometimes.

That’s my theory in a nutshell…Germans critique the United States because it’s the only former occupier who will put up with the natter. Moreover, if the Americans defeated and occupied Germany because the Germans were tyrannical, it does slake some of the guilt to see the Americans act out of hand in Vietnam or Iraq, now doesn’t it? When the Americans are acting unilaterally and against world opinion, Germans can claim some moral superiority which is a type of ersatz victory.

Notice the comments made by Merkel during the Warsaw Summit....some of the strongest ever made by a German leader against Putin...BTW not even matched by Obama. The Russian sanctions will hold in the EU as long as Merkel holds the line as the EU knows who the EU paymaster is

All well and good but the Bundeswehr better be ready to support the Baltic republics and Poland. Putin could also pressure the EU by stirring up trouble in Transnistria…

...recent polling as late as last week clearly shows over 54% of Germans are now naming Russia as a serious threat to Germany.....up from say about 14% during Crimea...and remember Russia has now made Germany a prime info warfare target as it has a large Russian community and a large Russian mafia community.....and the FSB has been working Germany hard since 1991. So all in all do not write off the German public as not wanting to do anything except "business as usual"...they have indeed caught the curve...it will be interesting to see where they go in the coming years...especially as they slowly rearm and rebuild their military to match the now perceived Russian threat.

Well, the StaSi softened Germany up well, didn’t it? Glad that Steinmeier is fighting an uphill battle. He should be exiled to Kaliningrad. He’ll feel at home with the German architecture and the Russian soldiers and smugglers…

BUT one thing is a given for sure...with the exit of the UK from the EU...the next US President will be forced to work ever closer with Germany something that did not happen under the Obama/Rhodes WH....

The US oscillates between the EU being threatening (despite its collective military power being latent) and advantageous (anti-military, pro-Western, unified, the Euro never supplanted the USD), which usually follows party lines. This is Germany’s time to come out of its shell, and hopefully (to paraphrase an earlier metaphor of mine), it won’t be a supernova or a black hole…

OUTLAW 09

07-14-2016, 05:59 AM

Most Germans believe that migrants will increase the likelihood of terrorism and that Muslims want to be “distinct” (July 11, 2016 (http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/07/11/europeans-fear-wave-of-refugees-will-mean-more-terrorism-fewer-jobs/))

The fact that Germans believe that their economy and social system can handle the migrant inflows does not mean that they believe the migrants have essential skills, which they usually do not.

Yet Merkel made Germany a target for these flows. Early on, the European Union could have taken a hard line against migrant flows of which only 1/3 were genuine refugees fleeing war. The EU could have directed funds to support border control and refugee housing in Greece, potentially helping the Greek economy, and negotiated a deal with Turkey many months sooner. There is a reason these migrants are targeting Germany, the UK and Sweden as opposed to Hungary, Poland or France…

The public narrative was that accepting one million unemployed young men with little to no skills (but EUR 3,000 to 10,000) was an act of generosity to help offset Germany’s historical sins.

Nor am I convinced that there is a “solid integration program” other than to seal off the shelters from the public, censor reporting of migrant crimes and hope that the CDU’s open border policy is a lesser evil than what the SPD would propose.

I still wonder how much of this is opposition to Russian aggression, and how much is merely supporter for EU expansion into Ukraine. When I think about the EU’s overreach in Ukraine, I am reminded of Germany’s overt and covert contacts with the Croatians during the Yugoslav Wars and then the KLA during the Kosovo War.

Apparently, Pokemon Go was released in Rostov in March of 2014. Unfortunately, the PokeStops were located about 100 miles northwest…

I am glad that you bring up German opposition to the Vietnam War and the deployment of American nuclear weapons to Germany, as there is a continuum to German demonstrations against the Iraq War and NSA spying. The West Germans certainly did not protest the Soviet War in Afghanistan or Soviet deployment of nuclear weapons to East Germany with the same vigor; nor did the Germans take much notice of Georgia or Ukraine.

I would argue that this is the result of the German defeat in 1945 and its post-war occupation.

The Red Army’s war crimes in eastern Germany and especially Berlin, were absolutely horrendous. To add insult to injury, the Soviets annexed East Prussia, installed a pro-Soviet Stalinist regime and helped murder its opposition, built a wall around East Germany and stripped it of valuables, occupied it for over 50 years and threatened West Berlin and West Germany with invasion and nuclear destruction. At the end of the occupation, the Soviets had to grant East Germany its independence and bless German unification. Are the Russians of today remorseful for any of the crimes they committed? No. Are they willing to discuss any of it? No. Do they continue to occupy East Prussia? Yes. Do they continue to threaten Germany? Yes.

In comparison, the Western Allies allowed for a democratic and pluralistic society to form in West Germany. They stimulated West Germany with funding and organizational know-how, kept their forces mainly disciplined, supplied West Berlin during the blockade, allowed for the free movement of Germans across borders, protected West Germany’s territorial integrity, and ultimately treated it as an independent ally. This all sounds very good, but it channels German resentment at defeat (there, I said it) in the wrong direction. If Germans accuse Americans of stealing their intellectual property, committing crimes (murder, rape theft) or acting as an occupier, Americans actually listen. Basically of the two “ex-husbands”, Russia is the angry violent drunk and the United States is the nice guy (relatively speaking). Germany is still afraid of Russia and ashamed at her humiliation at Russian hands, and so she walks on eggshells around Russia lest she need to wear the dark sunglasses again. But the United States? Well, he’ll apologize for not bringing flowers or showing up late or hanging out with the boys, even if he gets chirpy sometimes.

That’s my theory in a nutshell…Germans critique the United States because it’s the only former occupier who will put up with the natter. Moreover, if the Americans defeated and occupied Germany because the Germans were tyrannical, it does slake some of the guilt to see the Americans act out of hand in Vietnam or Iraq, now doesn’t it? When the Americans are acting unilaterally and against world opinion, Germans can claim some moral superiority which is a type of ersatz victory.

All well and good but the Bundeswehr better be ready to support the Baltic republics and Poland. Putin could also pressure the EU by stirring up trouble in Transnistria…

Well, the StaSi softened Germany up well, didn’t it? Glad that Steinmeier is fighting an uphill battle. He should be exiled to Kaliningrad. He’ll feel at home with the German architecture and the Russian soldiers and smugglers…

The US oscillates between the EU being threatening (despite its collective military power being latent) and advantageous (anti-military, pro-Western, unified, the Euro never supplanted the USD), which usually follows party lines. This is Germany’s time to come out of its shell, and hopefully (to paraphrase an earlier metaphor of mine), it won’t be a supernova or a black hole…

Azor...again a number of interesting remarks about Germany....but I am surprised that you also feel that Germany needs to come out of it's shell and lead.

BUT and there is always a but...then when Germany leads.... all of Europe stands up in shock as does the US with panic ..."the Germans are coming"....

Be it in the EU or with Ukraine or in Mali........

Secondly, yesterday the German government released a document indicating that for the first time....non Germans can join the Bundeswehr meaning anyone residing in the EU minus naturally now UK.....

That will allow it to bridge the lack of interest by Germans themselves to join as the economy is solid and pays overall better even though the Bundeswehr benefits actually are far better overall than even the US military.

If you noticed this document also defined for the first time just how the Bundeswehr can be used outside of Germany....actually a first.

Thirdly.....you mentioned the atrocities committed by the Soviet Army in Germany which did not really stop until 1951....in my area there is a cementary for German civilian internees who were thrown into NKVD concentration camps and basically starved to death as they "might have been Nazi's....but this included old men, women of all ages and yes even children.....100k plus died during that period and little has been written about it either in the GDR or the former BRD. The issue of the Soviet Army allowed raping across their fronts and up to Berlin...are actually now starting to be talked about and but when it does come up there is a massive Russian info warfare push back...

Then the Soviets did not release their final German POWs until late 1950/51 only after German signed trade agreements with the SU and recognized the SU.

The Soviets took war reparations from the GDR until the Wall fell....especially in the form of lopsided trade deals for say GDR built freighters which the Soviets always got at under sales price with a five year all inclusive guarantee which allowed the Soviets to drive the ships into the ground and then have the GDR completely rehab them at a cost to the GDR....then they virtually took the entire GDR agricultural crops leaving little for the GDR forcing them to use their limited foreign currency to purchase the shortfalls on the western markets. The same went for farm equipment produced in the GDR......let's not even mention Soviet uranium mining in the GDR....

BTW...most polling inside say the Syrian refugee contingent indicates that only 7% are choosing to remain in Germany......the rest do want to return if and when the fighting comes to a full stop and Assad is gone....thus this is an easy fix THAT is if the West fully understands this. BTW the German government sentenced the first identified Syrian regime Shia militia member to three years for war crimes committed while he was in Syria fighting for Assad...14 more are in the court funnel....the German courts openly used his own FB entries...his argument..."I was forced to"...sound familiar?...but the Court pointed out he was smiling in the photos coupled with his own FB comments....

Social media open source analysts passed the info to the German police....and it is to my knowledge the first use of such evidence by a German Court.

AND yesterday the German Federal Police raided 16 locations and arrested 18 neo Nazi's/neo rightists for hate speech statements in the internet against immigarants......jail time of three years is a given.....remember Germany is just about the only country that actively backs up their hate speech laws...based largely on their Nazi past.....

This is going to end well for the UK FP especially since the former PM was actively supporting the anti Assad side.....

The new British Foreign Minister is an outspoken admirer of Vladimir #Putin's policy of helping #Assad in #Syria.

BUT WAIT it gets even worse for the new UK FM.....

A British Foreign Secretary who excuses Russia’s invasion of Crimea?
http://khpg.org http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1468447666 …

The new UK Prime Minister Theresa May doubtless had her reasons for giving leading Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson a cabinet post. Making him Foreign Secretary, however, defies any comprehension. It is especially difficult not to view this as an affront to all those currently facing persecution in Russian-occupied Crimea given his extraordinary attempt to blame Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on the EU. This was only one of a long list of distortions and lies told to encourage Britons to vote to leave the EU, but it is one which makes the new portfolio a matter of immense concern.

On May 9 this year, during questions and answers after a speech on Europe, it transpired that for Johnson it was not Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea and its military aggression in Eastern Ukraine that had caused “real trouble”, but the EU’s actions.

“If you want an example of EU foreign policymaking on the hoof and the EU’s pretensions to running a defence policy that have caused real trouble, then look at what has happened in Ukraine, ” he told reporters.

Johnson later reacted angrily to what he called ‘smears’, denying that he was an apologist for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He did not explain what he had meant, and what, in his view, the EU had done to stoke tensions in Ukraine.

It was hardly surprising, therefore, that his words were taken as justifying Russia’s actions. Johnson was, after all, simply repeating a position first taken by the head of the right-wing UKIP party Nigel Farage in a speech soon after Russia’s invasion of Crimea. In March 2014, Farage accused the EU of having “blood on its hands” for encouraging the turmoil in Ukraine which had supposedly led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. This was recalled days later when he was reported as saying that “Vladimir Putin is the world leader I most admire”

Farage’s view of Putin and his slanted view of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine are shared by France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen, and in fact most far-right parties in Europe (Hungary’s Jobbik, Bulgaria’s Ataka, Poland’s Falanga and many others). It is their members, including some individuals known for their neo-Nazi views like Luc Michel and Manuel Ochsenreiter, who are regularly invited to act as ‘observers’ rubberstamping Russia’s ‘Crimean referendum’ and ‘elections’ in Donbas.

It was undoubtedly Ukrainians’ support for closer ties to Europe and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s reneging on his pre-election promise to sign the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement that sparked Euromaidan and the end of the Yanukovych regime. Yanukovych had been heavily backed by Putin, and fled to Russia, together with the cronies directly implicated in the gunning down of peaceful protesters.

None of the reasons later given by Putin to justify the seizure of control by Russian troops of Crimea were substantiated. Violent deaths, disappearances and arrests of opponents have all come under Russian occupation. There was no evidence of any such excesses before Feb 27, 2014.

Johnson was likely parroting the line taken by Brexit lobbyists who clearly blamed the EU for somehow encroaching on ‘Russia’s patch’. The Brexit camp, we learned, “believe that the EU’s eastwards expansion into former Warsaw Pact countries, as well as its attempts to reach economic deals with former Soviet states like Ukraine and Georgia, has provoked Russia into adopting a more aggressive military stance in areas like Crimea.”

In a nutshell, they appeared to be saying, Russia was left no alternative but to invade and annex Ukrainian sovereign territory.

This is essentially the line taken by the Kremlin, and all its friends.

It is also, disturbingly, the line which at least in 2014 was taken by the now Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and appears to be held to this day by his close aide Seumas Milne. The bogeyman for them is NATO rather than the EU, though their perceived failure to firmly campaign against Brexit has been presented as the main reason for the leadership challenge currently underway.

Britain, together with Russia and the USA, were signatories to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum which guaranteed Ukraine protection of its sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for giving up one of the largest nuclear arsenals in Europe. Neither the UK, however, nor other western countries reacted adequately to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The UK has, however, since taken a strong stand in supporting sanctions against Russia, imposed after Russia’s aggression in eastern Ukraine and the downing by Kremlin-backed militants of the Malaysian MH17 airliner on July 17, 2014.

Britain’s robust position was greatly appreciated, as was its acknowledgement of the grave human rights concerns in Crimea under Russian occupation.

What Johnson thinks appears to depend on the circumstances. Certainly, in an article from December 2015, while advocating fighting on the same side as Putin and Bashar Assad in Syria, he was at least critical of Putin (though later effusive in his praise of Putin’s bloody Syrian campaign which is believed by human rights NGOs, like Amnesty International, to have sometimes targeted civilians).

It is, however, the Johnson of the Leave campaign whom the UK’s new Prime Minister has seen the need to appoint to a high-ranking post in her government, and his position on Ukraine and Crimea are therefore seriously alarming.

Any blinkered presentation of Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the pseudo-referendum used to justify annexation flies in the face of the facts and begs the question of why Russia needed to bring in all its Eurosceptic friends from the far-right and far-left to act as ‘observers’.

The abductions and disappearances began after annexation and are continuing with the latest victim – Ervin Ibragimov – a prominent Crimean Tatar activist.

The Crimean Tatars, the main indigenous people of Crimea, faced persecution from the outset and this has now escalated with the criminalization of the Mejlis, or Crimean Tatar representative assembly. Three Crimean Tatars, including Akhtem Chiygoz, Deputy Head of the Mejlis, have been in detention for well over a year on surreal charges over the pre-annexation demonstration on Feb 26, 2014, which prevented Russia from carrying out a coup and seizure of power without deploying soldiers.

There are a number of Crimean opponents of annexation in Russian prisons, including renowned Ukrainian filmmaker Oleg Sentsov. In Crimea, 14 Muslims, almost all Crimean Tatars, have so far been arrested and face huge sentences on totally fabricated charges. Other Ukrainians, including Mejlis leader Ilmi Umerov and journalist Mykola Semena are facing prison sentences for what Russia labels as “public calls to violate Russian territorial integrity”, otherwise known as recognizing Crimea as Ukrainian and wanting its return to Ukraine.

All of this, and much more, is the direct result not of the EU’s support for Ukraine, but of Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea.

Wonder just what the new UK FM is going to say about this.....it is all the fault of the EU and Ukraine ..probably......

REMEMBER any attack number of 50 is in fact full and deep combat operations being carried out by the Russian military and her mercenaries ...having nothing to do with a simple "ceasefire violations".....

Video from #Avdiivka's Promzone, where the shooting never stops
https://youtu.be/m_G5oyNB1BM

Mariupol is a critical point as it blocks the way to Odessa which Russia has wanted to capture in the first place in 2014 as it would provide the Donbas with a viable port and totally land lock the Ukraine .......AND provide a land corridor to Crimea and Transisteria.....

OUTLAW 09

07-14-2016, 07:24 AM

Kremlin does not accept #Truth but fears NATO. Belarus does not feel threatened by #NATO's activity.
http://europe.newsweek.com/putins-ally-belarus-not-threatened-nato-reinforcement-479713?rm=eu …

REMEMBER any attack number of 50 is in fact full and deep combat operations being carried out by the Russian military and her mercenaries ...having nothing to do with a simple "ceasefire violations".....

Video from #Avdiivka's Promzone, where the shooting never stops
https://youtu.be/m_G5oyNB1BM

Mariupol is a critical point as it blocks the way to Odessa which Russia has wanted to capture in the first place in 2014 as it would provide the Donbas with a viable port and totally land lock the Ukraine .......AND provide a land corridor to Crimea and Transisteria.....

A partial list of countries New British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has insulted:
http://slate.me/29EuCWy

When @StateDept heard the news about Boris. If you watch one thing today...
Amazing how many emotions cross his face at once:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c46107...ns-appointment …

Merkel invites British PM May for talks in Berlin, declines to comment on Johnson
http://reut.rs/29EVPJ1
Johnson was not on the invite list it appears as some are saying from the Merkel side.....

OUTLAW 09

07-14-2016, 07:51 AM

One has to wonder who is funding the Carnegie Endowment when reading this article arguing against Russia sanctions http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/07/11/role-of-sanctions-in-u.s.-russian-relations-pub-64056 …

OUTLAW 09

07-14-2016, 04:36 PM

Minsk-forbidden arms used by (pro-)#Russians in eastern #Ukraine over the last 24 hours.
1 Ukr KIA, 6 WIA.

THIS is really worth reading as the writer was a Swedish sniper who fought in the volunteer Azor BN and then setup their on basic training course for all new BN members....

How the death of a senior Lieutenant unraveled the Russian support in East Ukraine
Published on July 13, 2016

Mikael Skillt

During 2014 while being deployed in the ATO zone with my unit I was an active user of social media trying to show the world what was happening in Ukraine, which wasn't easy with the massive Russian propaganda machine working on full power. It was during this time that I came into contact with Dima, he was an senior Lieutenant with the 76th VDV but had recently been discharged and got an contract with one of the Russian PMCs that sent him and his six man team to sector M (Area between Donetsk and Mariupol). Me and Dima used to argue all the time presenting what we considered to be the truth in all of this, we never were rude towards each other but rather had a mutual respect.

This continued all thru the operations of Marinka, Ilovaisk and some kind of an friendship grew between of us. When I was deployed at Shyrokino, Dima sent me an warning. In this private message he told me that a major attack would be launched against Shyrokino and that his group would take part in it. At the time I didn't believe him, but time would tell that his warning was real and Im not sure if it helped my group or not, but still the gesture was appreciated.

Dima and me made an agreement that if the two of us would survive the war we would meet up on neutral ground and share an ice cream, sadly only one of us would made it out alive. Dima went quite for a while and life passed on as normal for me, when I suddenly was contacted by a friend of Dima asking for a favor. The contact with Dima had been lost for a while and his family couldn't get in touch with him, so they were afraid that he was captured by the Ukrainians and asked me to find any information about this.

I was given his rank, full name, date of birth and all the other data I needed to ask my friends within the Ukrainian structures. After a week the answer came, there was no prisoner that would match Dima, and I informed his friend. One week passed and his friend contacted me again, telling me that Dima and 4 of his soldiers had been killed in an ambush just outside Zorya, the ambush was considered an accident committed by the separatist group ’Oplot’ but it happened just after Dima refused to follow orders. Apparently Dima wanted to defect to the Ukrainian side, he was tired of the war and the killings, this I didn't know of until I received the messages from his friend. Dima left a wife and two small children behind when buried in an unmarked grave north of Stila in Donbas.

I asked his friend to send my regards to Dimas wife and went on with my life until one day I get the most peculiar email, where one of the contractors for LNR contacts me and wondering why some officers from GRU wanted him to contact me. I reply that I had no idea and that I wanted no part in whatever schemes Russia was trying to play, the next email that comes from ”Ivan” explain a bit more on why he contacted me and it turns out that Dima had a lot of friends within the Russian army that didn't approve of how Russia have handled the matter. For a couple of emails we try to establish some kind of feeling for each other and then ”Ivan” starts explaining how Russia where sending equipment into Ukraine, how they set up training camps in Rostov and how Russian special forces where sent into Ukraine.

The email dating from December 2014 explaining how most of the PMC contractors had left Ukraine and behind was parts of the regular army and the volunteers from Russia, mostly being hardcore socialists, drunks or ex prisoners given a choice to fight and be free. Specialists from the Russian army where frequently sent into Eastern Ukraine to support the Russia backed separatists trying to build an army with the equipment Russia sent them thru the parts of uncontrolled border.

In order for Russia to send equipment and personel into Ukraine they used Rostov as an FOB and all personel would have to sign up there, while being in Rostov their passports and phones would be taken from them and stored in Rostov, then they would be given documents showing that they where properly enlisted in the Luhansks Peoples Republic, once their formal affairs was finished they would be sent by bus to the Ukrainian uncontrolled border and pass into occupied Ukrainian territory where they would be met by an officer from the local separatists. Ivan was assigned as an military advisor in May 2014 and got to oversee a lot of the operations planned by Russia and executed by the local separatists, one of these operations where to ship equipment from Russia into occupied Ukraine.

In the very early events, Russia didn’t supply anything, they were just sending the Cossacks to secure the elections, they were accompanied by a few volunteers, most of them carried their own (light) equipment, there was very few given to the locals

This would soon change as resistance grew and Russia understood that this would require a lot more help, massive amounts of small arms and ammunition where sent to LNR, most of it would be leftovers from the Georgian conflict. During this time the Cossacks grew in numbers and so did the volunteers, all of them were trained by Russian or by Russia appointed instructors, some of them were trained outside of Rostov in special weaponry such as tanks (T-64), GRAD or handling of manpads, while infantry training was carried out inside the territory of LNR by several nations from within the Russian federation.

Also around April 2014 there was a temporally camp on the outskirts of Rostov where local volunteers where trained in the use of special equipment like ATGMs, MANPADS, tanks and artillery. Base was moved in August to near Kvaisi, outside of Russia

When the summer came in 2014 Russia was pouring in weaponry into the Ukrainian occupied territory including so called "volunteers" from Ossetia, Chechnya, Abkhazia and Buryatia with them came equipment painted with Ukrainian markings, all not to show the heritage of the equipment. Within Russia documents would say that the equipment passing thru belonged to the small states and was given to the separatists as support against an oppressive Ukrainian government. With the fake volunteers came full units of VDV- and GRU units that would oversee and commit covert operations within Ukraine.

All major operations, like the big attack on Airport (Donetsk) where carried out by these guys and some other experienced groups under GRU command in Rostov

As well as most tanks (exception are the captured ones). Yes they were really captured, or bought from Ukraine side, it was more than you’d expect in a civil war, so there’s some truth in that, problem is, it went to the local groups

To be able to move troops and to attack fairly unnoticed by the OSCE, officers would approach the OSCE and tell them that is wasn't safe to go into that area due to fighting and while OSCE was waiting for things to slow down they would bring in full battalions to attack and then retreat leaving only local separatists in the area, all of this was possible due to the fixed schedule of the OSCE drone patrolling the borders, a schedule everyone was aware off. During the late summer Russia kept sending equipment and even decided to send very unique equipment since they noticed that the west really didn't care even tho it couldn't be any question marks regarding who that was supporting the separatists. Now T-72 and RPOs started to flow cross the Russian/Ukrainian border.

In late summer we received more advanced equipment, even some T-72, lots and lots of RPOs, which were damn effective and I think more GRADs than the whole Ukraine ever had (not really but you get me I guess)

The volunteers turned out to be a complicated group to control and several fights broke out between regular Russian army and the local warlords wanting to go on an rampage against what they saw as growing fascism in Ukraine, they where considered to be a liability for the Russians since they refused to follow orders and caused more trouble then expected, they where behind a lot of the rising criminality in the area. By december most of the local warlords within LNR was dealt with either by force or by politics, meaning that those that didn't get killed ended up moving to Donetsk Peoples Republic, where they could have a more free reign under Motorola or Givi. Maybe the most infamous group to leave LNR for DNR was the battalion under Alexandr ”Batman” Bednov, within this battalion was the only known openly neo-nazi group fighting for a ”Novorossiya”

Now the majority of the fighting force in LPR are under Russian command, there’s still smaller groups of locals, which resist but they’re the minority

In November 2014 a surge of Russian soldiers was sent into Ukraine, but their main mission wasn't to wage war but to keep the separatists under control and provide them with enough weapons and equipment for the separatists to be able to fight on without winning, this mission have led to quite a few bursts of openly hostilities between Russian armed forces and local warlords, killing at least two commanders of the ”Novorossiya” forces. But the leadership within the two ”states” are under control and they control most of their forces without any trouble.

Well I met Motorola twice, he’s a charming guy, very entertaining but he has no real military experience as a leader and his group refused all orders to stop fighting...

Continued...

OUTLAW 09

07-14-2016, 05:51 PM

LNR-leak: majority of LNR are under Russian command. Some smaller groups of locals still resist but they’re minority

.@PeterPomeranzev thinks that Russia's goal to not grab more land, but to destabilize #Ukraine psychologically. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/12/war-2015-china-russia-isis/422085/ …

REMEMBER any attack number of 50 is in fact full and deep combat operations being carried out by the Russian military and her mercenaries ...having nothing to do with a simple "ceasefire violations".....

Video from #Avdiivka's Promzone, where the shooting never stops
https://youtu.be/m_G5oyNB1BM

Mariupol is a critical point as it blocks the way to Odessa which Russia has wanted to capture in the first place in 2014 as it would provide the Donbas with a viable port and totally land lock the Ukraine .......AND provide a land corridor to Crimea and Transisteria.....

THIS is really going great for the UK FP ..........

'Britain has appointed a liar as its foreign secretary' - French foreign minister Ayrault
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0ZU0UI …

Bodes well for their EU leaving talks......

OUTLAW 09

07-14-2016, 07:48 PM

Reference Russian trolls and their bot networks being used in the massive Russian info warfare.......

Aric Toler @AricToler
To the 13 news sites that simultaneously posted articles bashing @bellingcat:
Thanks! We can now easily find other sites from Savushkina 55

Aric Toler @AricToler
All these sites use roughly the same design code and share the same bots, admins, and so on. So now it's easy to now map out their networks.

Aric Toler @AricToler
.@LawrenceA_UK and I found a dozen or so last year, but then they changed their analytic codes. Now we can easily find newly created ones.

Aric Toler @AricToler
For example, this "news" site (#14) was used to spread the fake Azov Battalion terror threat video in January.

Stop NATO blame game, East and West must urgently talk to ease tensions, says @DmitriTrenin of Carnegie Moscow
http://raamoprusland.nl/dossiers/europa/achtergrond/200-stop-blame-game-east-and-west-must-urgently-talk-on-future …
Baltics and Poland fear the 1st tank army and 20th combined etc massed on #Russia's western military district.

Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti
Sounds nice, but implicitly puts West and #Russia in equivalence, when practically and morally clearly not the case

The #Russian MFA - as always - used the #Steinmeier efforts for a poisoned statement re UKR.
http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2354172 …
One does have to wonder what planet the German FM has landed on lately with his "warmongering" comments against NATO and these comments against the Ukraine....

Russian mercenaries are seriously interested in breaking through to Odessa which would give them a land corridor to Crimea and the mercenaries had also failed in 2014 to take the center but were pushed back by UAF Marines, Azor BN volunteers and civilians.....

Russian mercenaries are seriously interested in breaking through to Odessa which would give them a land corridor to Crimea and the mercenaries had also failed in 2014 to take the center but were pushed back by UAF Marines, Azor BN volunteers and civilians.....

6 UAF wounded and one captured in yesterdays fighting....

OUTLAW 09

07-16-2016, 11:22 AM

During 2yrs 30% of miners took part in war [4DNR] since #Slovyansk. They remained in the mine employment & got salaries

July 17, 2014.Torez district,from Strelkov: just now was downed An-26.We warned not to fly in our skies.."
Scams...

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
Only the few days after their Buk shot down #MH17 the @mod_russia would present a series of lies and fake
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/07/16/russias-colin-powell-moment-how-the-russian-governments-mh17-lies-were-exposed/ …

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2016, 09:58 AM

21:14 #Horlivka #Stroitel @ahab9889 In the south, a signal or illuminating flare

Russians at NATO @natomission_ru
A.Grushko: US/NATO missile defence sites have a long-term destabilising potential for the European security and also for the strat.stability

Russians at NATO @natomission_ru
A.Grushko:We consider NATO decisions to increase its military capabilities and military activity on the Eastern flank groundless, excessive

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2016, 11:19 AM

Boryspil city (near Kyiv) forbade religious procession organized and called for by the Moscow Patriarchate to enter it
http://dosie.su/obshestvo/24826-krestnomu-hodu-pravoslavnyh-zapreschayut-vhodit-v-borispol.html …

July 17, 2014.Torez district,from Strelkov: just now was downed An-26.We warned not to fly in our skies.."
Scams...

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
Only the few days after their Buk shot down #MH17 the @mod_russia would present a series of lies and fake
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/07/16/russias-colin-powell-moment-how-the-russian-governments-mh17-lies-were-exposed/ …

"Why is Russia against UN MH17 tribunal?"
"Cos we are not to blame!"
"But it will find out who is to blame!"
"That's why we are against it!"

Nearly all members of 53rd Air Defence Brigade that convoyed Buk ID'ed, - @bellingcat #MH17
http://en.censor.net.ua/n397758

bellingcat @bellingcat
New Bellingcat release - #MH17 – The Open Source Investigation, Two Years Later
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2016/07/15/mh17-the-open-source-investigation-two-years-later/ …

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
My piece taking a look at how for Russia #MH17 became about more than just the events on July 17 2014
http://europe.newsweek.com/exposing-russian-lies-about-downing-flight-mh17-480782?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=/exposing-russian-lies-about-downing-flight-mh17-480782?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=/exposing-russian-lies-about-downing-flight-mh17-480782?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=yahoo_news&utm_campaign=rss&utm_content=%2Frss%2Fyahoous%2Fnews&yptr=yahoo …

MH17 anniversary: Meet the man suing Vladimir Putin, who now fears for his life
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/17/mh17-anniversary-meet-the-man-suing-putin-who-now-fears-for-his/ …