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Thursday, November 15, 2012

Coaching hotseat odds - UPDATED

Considering I'm someone who will be more interested in the 2013 Super Bowl prop bets than the actual game, take these for what they're worth before actually wagering. I'm no handicapper, but here's what I think happens in:

Auburn. Chizik hasn't coached his last game on the plains, but he's nearing the end of his final season. And given that at best the Iron Bowl will be his last game on the sideline for the Tigers, he should consider this weekend's match as his swan song. This bet would be considered "off the board". 100% guarantee. I would venture a guess as to who they get as a replacement, but let's face it...they went to Iowa and hired this guy. The sky is the limit, regardless of the amount of money they would owe the current coaches once they're canned. But just for kicks and giggles - Petrino at 5%.

Knoxville. Dooley will be gone. It's as good as a slam dunk. Once Vanderbilt beats the Vols we can officially rename James Franklin as the "Coach Killer", having beaten Joker Phillips, Gene Chizik and Derek Dooley on their way out the door. (Keep in mind this moniker could be given to a number of coaches to face and beat all three, but when Vandy does it that is news folks!). 99% assured...which is ninety-nine percentage points more than the chance that Gruden takes over for Dooley. And even though they're flirting with Petrino, don't bet on that either.

N. Avenue. They keep frying fish. PJ stays...99% sure. Which leaves a 1% chance the AJC buys out the remainder of Johnson's contract and makes him their chief spokesperson. Having an interim AD helps some, but being in the thick of the ever competitive ACC Coastal division championship also helps. If the engiNerds can get by perennial power Duke this weekend, they may just give he guy an extension. Al Groh who?

Lexington. As the rumors of Petrino die down, I think they pick up just as quickly the last week of November. But in the end I think they go with the Falcons OC, Dirk Koetter. Or possibly someone like Gus Malzahn. For the sake of argument let's say Koetter at 25%, while I would put Petrino at 3%. (I still think Petrino will need a solid year with no train bike wrecks while performing well as a coordinator in the NFL or the head coach at a program in a smaller conference before landing an SEC gig. Just a thought.)

Fayetteville. Latest news has Bo Pelini as a possibility. I'm not so sure the Arkansas job is more attractive than Nebraska (especially considering that Nebraska may end up in the BIG 12 B1G Championship in a couple weeks), but perhaps the lure of coaching in the SEC is that strong. <...cue Jim Delaney tears...> Still I like a splashy hire here. I would've put my money on Patterson, but with all the MaryJane trafficking problems in Fort Worth he's nearly as sketchy a hire as Petrino was and is.

Meanwhile Coach Richt will just sit back and smile, before deciding which recruits to allow back into his good graces.

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UPDATE: a local Krystal's (and given the fact that it's a Krystal's, almost assuredly is owned by a Bama fan) kicks Chizik while he's down.

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