Republican losers face debate on future

So long . . . Mitt and Ann Romney and Paul and Janna Ryan farewell their supporters on election night.
Photo: Reuters

by
Carl Hulse

The day had started optimistically, as
Mitt Romney
cast his ballot early, then made one last trip to scour for votes. But it ended with stony silence in the ballroom where his supporters watched state after state that they hoped would go the GOP nominee’s way tilt towards President
Barack Obama
.

Nearly two hours after the networks called the race for Mr Obama, Mr Romney appeared onstage at a waterfront convention centre in Boston to congratulate his opponent and thank his supporters.

“I have just called President Obama to congratulate him on his victory," Mr Romney said, and went on to thank his running mate Paul Ryan, and his wife, Ann, and sons for their work on the campaign.

“I believe in America. I believe in the people of America," Mr Romney said as the crowd cheered. “I ran for office because I’m concerned about America. This election is over but our principles endure."

He said he wished that he had been elected, but that “the nation chose another leader, so Ann and I join with you to earnestly pray for him".

Mr Romney stove to put the rancour of the campaign behind him.

“The nation, as you know, is at a critical point. At a time like this, we can’t risk partisan bickering and political posturing. Our leaders have to reach across the aisle to do the people’s work."

Mr Romney’s loss to a Democratic president wounded by a weak economy is certain to spur an internecine struggle over the future of the Republican Party, but the strength of the party’s conservatives in Congress and the rightward tilt of the next generation of party leaders could limit any course correction.

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With their party on the verge of losing the popular presidential vote for the fifth time in six elections, Republicans across the political spectrum anticipate a prolonged and probably divisive period of self-examination.

The debate will be centred on whether the party should keep pursuing the anti-government focus that grew out of resistance to the health care law and won them the House in 2010, or whether it should focus on a strategy that recognises the ­demographic tide running strongly against it.

“There will be some kind of war," predicted Mike Murphy, a long-time Republican Party consultant, suggesting it would pit “mathematicians" like him, who argue the party cannot keep surrendering the votes of Hispanics, blacks, younger voters and college-educated women, against party purists, or “priests", as he puts it, who believe that basic conservative principles can ultimately triumph without much deviation.

“We are in a situation where the Democrats are getting a massive amount of votes for free," Mr Murphy said.

But the debate will not just be about demographics. Ralph Reed, a veteran of the conservative movement, said Mr Romney’s loss would stir resentment among those who believe that the party made a mistake in nominating a more centrist Republican who had to work to appeal to the party’s base.

“There’s definitely a feeling that it would be better to nominate a conservative of long-standing conviction," Mr Reed said.

As a party, Republicans continue to depend heavily on older working-class white voters in rural and suburban America – a shrinking percentage of the overall electorate – while Democrats rack up huge majorities among urban voters such as blacks, Hispanics and other minorities.

Then there are younger Americans who are inclined to get their political news from Comedy Central and will not necessarily become more conservative as they age.

The disparity means Democrats can get well under 50 per cent of the white vote and still win the presidency, a split that is only going to widen in the future.

Exit polls showed about seven in 10 Hispanics said they were voting for President Obama. Mr Romney won the support of nearly six in 10 whites. In urban areas, white voters were split over the two candidates, but about six in 10 white voters in the suburbs went for Mr Romney, as did nearly two-thirds in rural areas.

Mr Romney won a majority of voters 65 or older, while Mr Obama was backed by six in 10 Americans younger than 30, and won a narrow majority of those younger than 44.

Even as they absorbed Mr Romney’s defeat, the party’s top elected officials, strategists and activists said they believed Republicans had offered a persuasive message of economic opportunism and fiscal restraint. While the messenger may have been flawed, they argued, Republicans should not stray from that approach in a moment of panic.

“The party has to continually ask ourselves: what do we represent?" Marco Rubio, the Florida Republican seen as a top White House contender for 2016, said. “But we have to remain the movement on behalf of upward mobility, the party people identify with their hopes and dreams. People want to have a chance."

Matt Kibbe, president of the Tea Party-aligned group FreedomWorks, acknowledged there would be a natural struggle for the identity of the party in the election’s aftermath. But he argued that, in some respects, the fight had already been waged and won by the energised grass-roots forces that have shaped the contours of Republican politics in recent elections.

“You are going to see a continuation of the fight between the old guard and all of the new blood that has come in since 2010, but I don’t know how dramatic it is going to be," he said. “It is getting to the point where you can’t reach back and pull another establishment Republican from the queue like we have done with Romney."

Besides Senator Rubio, Paul Ryan, the unsuccessful vice-presidential candidate, will now be seen as a chief party voice, as will Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. House Republicans particularly can be expected to gravitate to Mr Ryan.

Others considered to be on the rise include Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia and Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana.

All can, to some extent, attribute their success to Tea Party-style politics with an emphasis on cutting spending and shrinking government.

As possible counterbalances, Republicans point to former Governor
Jeb Bush
of Florida who has shown an ability to connect with Hispanic voters, and Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey who has been able to win in a blue state. But the more conservative up-and-comers seem to have the upper hand for now, even in defeat.

And while Senate Republicans did not make the gains they anticipated – and some of their likely wins became losses in races where their candidates were deemed too extreme – they added internally to their conservative ranks.