Are today’s MMA observers more on point than ever before, or are a lot of people going to eat crow on Sunday?

Jon Jones, the challenger, is still a moderate betting favorite over the champion, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, as the moments tick toward UFC 128, which takes place Saturday at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., and airs live on pay-per-view.

The 23-year-old phenomenon does have time on his side, at least from an outsider’s view. He has a lot fewer miles on his body and more octagon experience than his champion counterpart. He’s a kinetic wrestler. Plus, he doesn’t act his age.

But he also has less professional experience than Rua. He hasn’t faced the same caliber of competition. He hasn’t had a full training camp – or had a chance to recover fully from his most recent fight – and he’s possibly facing the longest fight of his career.

Rua, on the other hand, has the resume of a young prodigy. As a 23-year-old, he beat Quinton Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona in PRIDE before moving on to win the UFC light-heavyweight title at 29 years old with a blowout of Lyoto Machida this past May at UFC 113.

But he’s got a bum knee – or at least he did. The champ has a stack of medical bills that testifies to problems with injuries, and in this case, he’s returning to action after a 10-month layoff due to a third knee surgery. Looking at his past, it makes sense. He was raised by the wolves of the Chute Boxe academy in Brazil, and it took him a while to learn when to take it easy. He’s acting a lot more his age these days.

Still, Jones (12-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) and Rua (19-4 MMA, 3-2 UFC) are both comparatively young fighters. So when does time start working for you, as opposed to against you?

Rua believes his time away isn’t nearly the handicap most make it out to be.

“It doesn’t really bother me because if you look at it, I [was] sidelined for about 10 months,” he said. “But if you come to look at things close, it was almost the same difference in (time) between the first Machida fight (at UFC 104) and the second Machida fight. I’m pretty tranquil about it because I know I’m going to fight a guy who is a very good fighter like Jones, but I have been training hard, and I know that I’m well prepared for the test.”

Jones, meanwhile, sees all those hours grinding in the gym with virtually no rest to be a positive. Before he was called to fill in for injured Rashad Evans, he had time to play Rua in the gym as he prepared to meet Ryan Bader this past month at UFC 126. He then got six weeks to play himself.

“I think what’s going to make me ready is the fact that I literally just fought a few weeks ago,” Jones said. “I think what’s going to make me ready is the fact that I’m obsessed with ‘Shogun.’ I literally watched all of his fights, and I study everything between what he does on the bottom and what he does on the top and what [are] his favorite punches, what makes him kick (and) why he kicks. I’ve figured out a lot about him.

“And I’m young. I feel young, and I have a lot of heart, and I have a lot of hunger. I have no knee injuries, and I have no injuries. I could jump through the air. I could squat too. I can do anything right now, and I’m training my butt off on top of that.”

Rua was 23 and went to 12-1 when he won the 2005 PRIDE middleweight grand prix. Jones is 12-1 on the eve of his title shot.

They both agree that they’ve achieved success through relentless aggression, though they might disagree on the style they’ve used along the way.

“I just think our games are a little different, as his strongest point is his wrestling and mine was my striking,” Rua said.

Time hasn’t changed much in that sense. Although Jones’ striking game has improved dramatically, his takedowns and top game have turned him into a phenomenon. Rua, meanwhile, has continued to batter opponents with his aggressive Muay Thai skills.

Rua went five rounds just once in his career – when he met Machida for the first time and lost a controversial unanimous decision. Jones is breaking into new territory with a championship-length fight.

From an outsider’s view, Jones is going to do just fine if he does exactly as he’s been doing since he destroyed Matt Hamill at The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale: a quick takedown followed by brutal ground and pound or a submission. Rua, meanwhile, has to stop that from happening, and he has the tools to do so if he can catch the challenger coming in.

Although Jones is the favorite going into the fight, he’s got as much to prove as Rua does. He’s already been anointed the next big thing. Is he good enough to be champion?

“I think everything happens for a reason, and I have a really solid staff around me and, they’re making sure that I peak out perfectly,” Jones said. “I started this camp already in phenomenal shape – already having pretty close to phenomenal timing. Now, I’ll turn my mind and pray for bit of peace tactic-wise.”

They would welcome title shots or a chance to be coaches on the 14th season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” as they previously told MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com). But neither expects it to happen after Saturday night.

Granted, there seems to be a somewhat shorter line to Dominick Cruz’s bantamweight title than in other UFC divisions, and both Faber and Wineland are former champions. Then there’s the heat between Faber and Cruz that keeps resurfacing. But it’s “business as usual” for the division standouts.

For now, the only thing on the line is a good first impression. Of course, former WEC featherweight champion Faber has a big leg up in that department having been the face of the now-defunct lighter-weighted promotion for several years while Wineland is working his way back to the top of the division since the promotion was purchased by UFC parent company Zuffa LLC.

In his most recent performance, Wineland served up a devastating knockout when he slammed Ken Stone into unconsciousness at the WEC’s final event, WEC 53. Faber, meanwhile, is one fight removed from his bantamweight debut at WEC 52, where he choked unconscious one-time contender Takeya Mizugaki in the first round.

“Urijah, he brings a lot to the table,” Wineland said. “He’s got a toolbox full of tools. His hands have improved immensely from what I’ve seen. He’s a great wrestler. His jiu jitsu is no joke. We’re both very strong for our size.

“We’re both in great shape, and it’s going to be an exciting, fast-paced fight. I think his strengths are in grappling, and with my fighting style, I’m very hard to find in order to take me down. So he’s going to have to find me to get me to the ground.”

In other main-card action, lightweight Jim Miller (19-2 MMA, 8-1 UFC) hopes to earn a shot at the lightweight title with a win over former Olympian Kamal Shalorus (7-0-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC).

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