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Worst Slump in Decades for Thai Tourism

A shirt seller walked along a lightly populated beach in Phuket, Thailand, on Christmas Day.Credit
David Longstreath/Associated Press

BANGKOK (Reuters) — From empty sun loungers at luxury hotels to vacant bar stools in dingy saloons, tourism in Thailand is going through its worst slump in decades, a result of the global economic slowdown and its own political turmoil.

“Right now, business is so slow. Some nights, only one customer,” said Jodie, a 24-year-old transvestite go-go dancer teetering around the capital’s Nana red-light district in spike-heeled, thigh-high boots.

Jodie’s gloom is echoed by everybody in an industry that accounts for 6 percent of the economy in the self-styled Land of Smiles and directly employs 1.8 million people.

The head of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, Phornsiri Manoharn, estimates the eight-day closure of Bangkok’s $4 billion Suvarnabhumi airport by antigovernment protesters a month ago will have caused one million foreign visitors to cancel trips or go elsewhere.

“This is the hardest hit we’ve ever encountered in the 48 years we’ve been promoting tourism to Thailand,” she said. And that’s after the country suffered through the December 2004 tsunami, bird flu and SARS.

With arrival numbers for December likely to be 500,000 — a third of forecasts — the Tourism Authority’s goal of attracting 15.5 million tourists in 2008 and 16 million in 2009 is in tatters.

Far from the 70 percent occupancy they normally see in December, Bangkok’s top hotels are 25 percent full, forcing management to close floors, lay off contractors and ask employees to take unpaid leave.

“It would be fair to say that this will be the lowest monthly occupancy we’ve experienced in the history of the hotel,” said Wayne Buckingham, managing director of the 740-room Royal Orchid Sheraton.

The corporate and conference business has been hit particularly hard. That segment of the tourism industry was more sensitive than others to the travel warnings issued during the airport occupation, the climax of months of sometimes violent political confrontation.

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But Mr. Buckingham said that people in Asia had been through downturns before and would get through this one, too. “It’s just that this one will take a bit longer,” he said, estimating that it will be 12 to 18 months before things return to normal.

With the export-driven economy already feeling the pinch from the global slowdown, many analysts say they believe the airport protests by the People’s Alliance for Democracy could tip Thailand into recession.

Even if tourism avoids the large-scale layoffs already hitting manufacturing, getting the industry back on its feet will be yet another problem for the new prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, who heads a shaky coalition.

If he starts diverting provincial cash to Bangkok or the south, where the best beaches and strongest support for his Democrat party are to be found, he risks further alienating voters in the north and northeast, where loyalty to the former leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, runs deep.

However, there was expected to be great pressure to intervene, because the dearth of visitors was hurting a wide range of people, including taxi drivers, antique dealers, gem traders and thousands of service workers.

The only people still smiling are the foreign visitors who decided not to be put off by the likelihood of more political unrest.

“To be honest, it’s worked out fairly well — all the sights are pretty much empty and we’ve been getting a guide all to ourselves,” said Michael Gude, a businessman from London.

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page B3 of the New York edition with the headline: Worst Slump in Decades for Thai Tourism. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe