Guido Westerwelle, hopeful liberal

Might Germany's liberals hold the balance of power by the end of the year?

“A JOKE.” That was Gerhard Schröder's withering dismissal of Guido Westerwelle's announcement on May 12th that he would be seeking to displace him as chancellor in the general election in September. After all, Mr Westerwelle's liberal party, the Free Democrats, scraped up only 6% of votes cast in the last general election, and its leader has never been elected to any post, national or even local. Why should he be taken seriously when he says he aims to run the world's third economic power? In Germany, unlike in France, such things do not happen. Not since the German Republic's foundation in 1949 has anyone outside the two main party blocks had the nerve to pose as “chancellor candidate”. Mr Schröder's chuckle seems justified.

Best, though, not to laugh too loud. Jokes, gimmicks and publicity stunts are all part of the modern, dynamic Mr Westerwelle's stock in trade—but they have worked. He has certainly boosted the liberals' flagging fortunes since he took over as their leader last year. Of course he knows he has no chance of becoming the next chancellor. The post is not, in any event, directly elected, so calling oneself chancellor candidate does not mean all that much. But it puts down a marker along the road of Mr Westerwelle's planned transformation from a cliquish party identified with a professional elite into a more broadly-based “party of all the people” on a par with Germany's two main parties, the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats. His conceit is also meant to fire the liberals' sense of independence at a time when their bigger rivals are eager to woo them as a potential coalition partner after September's election.

As things stand, the liberals could well end up deciding who should govern Germany next. That would not be for the first time. Until the collapse of Helmut Kohl's government in 1998, the liberals had been in power with various bigger partners for all but seven of the current republic's 49 years. But when Mr Schröder's Social Democrats took office, the liberals suddenly found their kingmaking role usurped by the Greens. Riven by infighting and shaken by a string of electoral setbacks, the liberals seemed to have run out of ideas and steam. By the end of 1999, they had seats in only four of federal Germany's 16 state parliaments. Some pollsters gave them only 4% of the national vote, well behind the Greens and even the ex-communist Democratic Socialists. Seats in the federal parliament are guaranteed with 5%. The liberals, it seemed, might die. No worry about that now.

It was the Christian Democrats' slush-fund scandal in 1999 that started the liberals' revival. Mr Westerwelle, a clever doctor of law who had been the party's general secretary, did not take over as leader from the amiable but dull Wolfgang Gerhardt until last May. Since then, though at first dismissed as a publicity-seeking if quick-witted lightweight, he has worked wonders. Aged 40, bouncy, unconventional, a confirmed bachelor, he has fizzed up what was a stodgy, middle-aged, male-dominated outfit and has widened its electoral appeal. In last month's election in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, one in ten blue-collar workers are reckoned to have voted for what once unblushingly described itself as the “party of the higher earners”.

Today, most pollsters give the liberals some 10-13% of the national vote, almost twice as much as either the Greens or the ex-communists

Today, most pollsters give it some 10-13% of the national vote, almost twice as much as either the Greens or the ex-communists. Mr Westerwelle brazenly declares that his aim is to boost that to 18% by September. In the individual popularity stakes for politicians, he now comes seventh, level with Edmund Stoiber, the chancellor candidate for the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. Half of all Germans apparently want him to play a bigger part in the future. And his party has at last begun notching up some notable successes, doubling its vote in state elections in Berlin and North Rhine-Westphalia (getting 10% in both states) and tripling its score last month to 13% in Saxony-Anhalt, in the former East Germany. The liberals are now in ruling coalitions in five states, four with the Christian Democrats and one with the Social Democrats.

You don't have to make up your mind yet

Since the liberals have shared power on the national stage for nearly three decades with Christian Democrats, including 16 unbroken years under Mr Kohl, most Germans had come to associate them with the right. Mr Gerhardt accentuated that feeling. Mr Westerwelle has nudged the party back to the centre. He is refusing to pledge his troth to any of Germany's bigger beasts until after the election. It is the first time in decades that the liberals have not declared their coalition preference in advance. Mr Westerwelle says he could make a liaison with either Mr Schröder or Mr Stoiber. While he puts his party closer to Christian Democrats on economic matters, including labour-market reform, he sounds cosier with the Social kind of Democrats on such issues as immigration, human rights, genetic engineering and sexual and family values. Remember, the liberals happily helped run Germany alongside the Social Democrats for 13 years before ditching them in favour of Mr Kohl. They could rule with the left again.

So are Germany's liberals really liberal? By the American definition, hardly. Like his predecessors, Mr Westerwelle calls for less state interference, lower taxes, fewer subsidies, more privatisation, more individual choice and responsibility. But the bigger parties nowadays sing that tune too. True, Mr Westerwelle says he would slash public spending more ruthlessly, down to 33% of GDP—without saying how. He also wants to put income tax into three simpler bands of 35%, 25% and 15%, down from today's top rate of 48.5%. However, he says he shares Tony Blair's beliefs more than those of Margaret Thatcher or Ronald Reagan. “I'm a liberal, not an anarchist,” he says. And the joker in Germany's electoral pack? Maybe. Plainly Mr Schröder and Mr Stoiber would be unwise to laugh him off.