000
FXUS63 KEAX 210455
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1155 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018
.Discussion...
Issued at 148 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018
Beneficial rains have been observed across areas mainly south of
I-70 as of the early afternoon. Totals have generally ranged from
a tenth to 1 inch for most of the area, while totals south of
Highway 50 have ranged from half an inch up to an inch and a half.
While no flooding concerns were observed, these more southern
areas could be sensitive to additional rainfall expected this
afternoon. Up to a half inch more is possible until the evening
time frame, with locally higher amounts possible. The forcing for
this subsequent round of activity will come in the form of
moisture convergence ahead of a frontal boundary stretched across
south central Kansas into central Oklahoma. A weak mid-level
impulse will also provide modest ascent to maintain rain showers
with embedded thunderstorms as the boundary pushes into the local
area. Expecting to see this line of activity to affect eastern
Kansas and western Missouri in the early afternoon, before pushing
through central and then eastern Missouri through the late
afternoon and early evening. While no widespread severe weather is
expected due to a stabilized local environment, some storms could
become organized enough to promote the potential for hail and
gusty winds, as pockets of clearing have been noted via visible
satellite imagery.
Low-level cloud cover will hold on through the overnight hours
before scattering out late Monday morning and afternoon. Weak
northwesterly surface flow will maintain near-seasonal high temps
Monday afternoon, though a ridging pattern through the mid-week will
bring a return of above-seasonable temps through the better part of
the work week. Would not be surprised to see some areas reach the 90
degree mark from Wednesday through the late week. There are some
chances of storm development throughout the week as weak
shortwaves trek across the ridge axis, with the most likely setup
for widespread precip holding off until Thursday. Weak wind fields
aloft during this time should moderate any chances of storms
becoming severe, though this trend will need to be monitored given
a progged unstable environment. Better chances for more organized
convection looks to hold off until the weekend time frame.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018
Satellite imagery shows low clouds, fog, or a combination of both
developing over eastern KS and western MO. While timing the onset of
these conditions at the terminals is proving to be tricky,
confidence is high that the area will eventually see low MVFR to
IFR ceilings and/or visibility due to low clouds and/or fog. The
foggy conditions will persist through the early morning hours with
the ceilings lifting by late morning or early in the afternoon.
Winds will generally be light through the forecast.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...CDB