The Global Vulnerability Analysis (GVA) was a first-order analysis that combined
available global data sets with a number of assumptions to provide regional
and global perspectives on vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise for a
limited number of parameters (Hoozemans et al., 1993). GVA results are consistent
with a number of national studies (Nicholls, 1995); the following results for
Europe can be derived. In 1990, more than 30 million people were estimated to
live below the 1,000-year storm surge level. These people generally are protected
from flooding by structural measures and the low incidence of flooding. A 1-m
rise in sea level relative to the 1990 conditions would increase the population
living below the 1,000-year storm surge level by about 30%, to 40 million people.
The incidence of flooding will depend on human response: Proactive measures
that anticipate the rise in sea level will maintain a low incidence of flooding.

Europe is estimated to have at least 2,860 km2 of salt marshes and 6,690 km2
of other unvegetated intertidal habitat (these estimates exclude the former
Soviet Union). Based on coastal morphological type, the GVA estimates that coastal
wetlands will decline given a 1-m rise in sea level, with 45% of salt marshes
and 35% of other intertidal areas lost. Considering coastal squeeze increases
the losses to 62% and 41%, respectively. The characteristics of the surviving
salt marsh and intertidal areas may be greatly altered compared with current
conditions. The northern Mediterranean is most vulnerable to such losses; the
Baltic Sea is most vulnerable to coastal squeeze. Such losses could have serious
consequences for biodiversity in Europe, particularly for bird populations.

Table 5-4 presents what is known to date from national
studies in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC 1996,
WG II, Chapter 9) and U.S. Country Studies Program (Lenhart et al., 1996) on
European countries, supplemented by a national study of Germany (Sterr and Simmmering,
1996; Ebenhoe et al., 1997). A regional study of East Anglia in the United Kingdom
also is available (Turner et al., 1995). Although the results vary from country
to country, they all emphasize the large human and ecological values that could
be impacted by sea-level rise. Other values that may be impacted include cultural
and archeological resources at the coast (Fulford et al., 1997). Historic cities,
such as Venice, might be included in this category.

Table 5-4: Social and economic impacts of sea-level
rise in The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Estonia, and Ukraine.