Selasa, 13 Maret 2012

Comment to the Complaint Alan Greenspan (former Fed Governor)

Comment by : Edmond F. La’lang (Economic and Environment Observer)

"We will never find a perfect model for analyzing risk. We'll never be able to anticipate the discontinuity in the market financial"

In my opinion, this is not entirely true, because economists simply use economic theory that is linear with statistical data and econometric linear mathematical calculation (dimension 1) on macro-economic and monetary fields that are static. This is certainly economics will never know with accurate and precise prediction of psychological turmoil, panic, fear, selfishness, greed, ideals, values of hope, desire, needs and wants, mental attitude, vision and natural biorhytmic on a block of space (XYZ) are dimensionless 2-4 that indeed can not be measured quantitatively by econometric

Besides, the "Invisible Hand" of the supernatural nature and natural to influence occurrence of an interaction between human, natural and supernatural nature is dynamic and always moving non-linear and fluctuating in every human activity, including economics and business. It's human nature to always want to progress, winning, developing (growth) and successfully demonstrated by the straight line graph (linear) and if it begins to decline and fluctuate then the man will use a variety of ways to straighten it to rise even higher. But there are limits of human ability to ride on a climbing session, where the mountain is also only have a certain altitude and could not possibly keep rising toward the sky. This fluctuation process, which if increased will be declared as a positive thing, profit, success and achievement, but if the decline will be declared as negative, loss, failure and breach of contract and familiarly known as the "risk".

Though positive and negative, profit and loss, victory and defeat, achievement and in default is the color and essence of life itself that can not be eliminated, but can be avoided if we know well biorhytmic strains of human activity in the world. According to the law of nature "The Law of Deminishing Return" that if we are rising high with steep slope angles and greater speed, so we too will face the risk of falling with a speed much faster (free fall) with more severe consequences than benefits we may from time to climb. Similar to the case of stock exchanges, commodity exchanges, derivatives and foreign exchange or the term "High Risk High Return." Strangely happy man just want to ride on, wins and succeeded on without ever wanted to know decline, defeat and failure that will always be regarded as "risk", so that the natural laws of gravity will pull forced down if you are already approaching its peak and is "human tower of Babylon".

Similarly, increase in growth (growth) business economics, stocks, commodities, forex, bonds, derivatives and bonds will be a natural fluctuation that is bioritmik human economic activity which, when forced against the direction of decreasing (self-reinforcing) will cause a catastroph Soros, such as wake collapse giant's subprime derivatives that are followed by the collapse of a building which was built by a man with a big fund, a long time and hard work, such as stock exchanges, commodity exchanges, foreign exchange and real sector in a shorter time, loss and victim more. Bioeconomic-natural with biorhythmic strains, we can accurately predict what year (2008) and how many months (it should be July-August 2008) the peak of the crisis that followed the U.S. recession. Discontinuity is actually the rhythm of biorhythmic fluctuations in up and down that if not maintained properly will cause turmoil and catastroph, so there is discontinuity (unlinierity) of economic growth and rising stock prices.

By knowing the economic biorhytmic precisely and correctly, then we can avoid the risk of systemic and individual from building a giant man-made, so that we can avoid the loss, defeat, failure and disaster of systemic risk. Then we can create a condition of "Free Risk Natural" and not free financial risk which was often fail in reducing and preventing the emergence of a risk. What is often done is to give a commitment to provide a Fix Income, Fixed Income Mutual Funds, Mutual Fund Capital Protected, the yield of derivative, but not infrequent occurrence of risk within a specific period, known as "the business economic cycle". Actually building air-derivative level is fine, but think it should create a solid foundation (the object of strong derivatives) with architectural and civil construction quality for the building can be lasting, strong, withstand earthquakes and strong storms, like the case of subprime mortgages that very fragile foundation. Not to mention the junk bonds, subprime financial engineering is wrapped in a variety of exotic derivative products to remove the actual risk can not be eliminated, where there are significant difference between free risk based on mathematic formulas with “natural free risk” based on natural law. So we included Alan Greenspan not to be confused and frustrated about this

Alan Greenspan said: "We'll never find the perfect model of analysis to anticipate the risks and the inability to anticipated of financial discontinuity in the market".

In my opinion, learn from the system, dynamics and evolution of nature (life environment) system as the most sophisticated libraries and scientific laboratories which had been prepared of God to be managed and utilized in a wise man and the optimal order not to destroy "his own house." According to information from Dahlan Iskan (Java Post Newspaper, October 2008) that because the science of mathematics, abacus and geometric, just a science of linear dimension 1 (one) who are unable to learn, master and control the influence of natural and supernatural forces of every aspect of life), then derivatives markets become increasingly sophisticated and complex. In my opinion, financial business is create a network (web) and tiered artificial complex that actually make their own trapped in the complex network without being able to escape when the tsunami subprime explosion. Which of mine with the method of Bioeconomic-natural already know exactly broken down amount to Rp. 7,500 – Rp. 10,000 and the collapse of banks in Indonesia by the Monetary Crisis (1997); downtrend prediction of index rose from 1997 to 2003; depreciation of the rupiah to Rp. 11,750 by the influence of fuel, will the U.S. recession in 2007-2008 (my prediction since 2003) analysist based on Forex and Dow Jones montly fluctuations graphic that US economic will be fall in light to medium recession whatever the reason for the cause and its true happen that make by "tsunami financial on subprime mortgages crisis".

With the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the depreciation of Rupiah against US$ is amount to Rp.10.000,-, an increase in the fuel that maybe drives the Certificate of Indonesian Bank (SBI) to 10.0%, economic growth in 2008 is 5.7 to 6.0%, a decrease FFRT (the FED) from 6.0 to 1.5%, the U.S. and global deflation threat by contraction rate towards zero rate cut by the Fed. In my opinion, recession and deflation, the U.S. and the world will be a long time to recover and lasted until 2015 - 2017 if no more worsen economic condition, where world welfare decreased again with the potential to return to the era of in the 1930s Great Depression.

Some of the Fundamental Error of financial (derivatives) market, namely:

1)The foundation of the sub-sectoral in lower middle-class property which should be secondary to the above,

2)The accuracy of the data is invalid,

3)Real of Management Risk calculations is not accurate by mathematic science,

4)Manufacture of building a network without the risk of architectural buildings earthquake-resistant skyscrapers;

5)Prediction rates low and not an "early warning system" that works effectively and quickly in a computerized system,

6)Calculation of the macro and micro economic and financial and accounting such as NPV (Net Price Value) and NFV (Net Future Value), derivative formulas, time calculations on time series sequencies that is linear, so there is flexible elastic) and effective in conducting assessment and prediction.

This is what causes the condition of bubble that continues to encourage people with a nature full of greed and passion to do the "leveraging" a manipulative act without the "underlying the real asset and the real value fundamentals" appropriate and reasonable.

Footnote :

Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally
influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass
psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often
chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions,
business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur
dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast.
But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by
biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and
down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system)
but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet * *
(Astronomical).

Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom
in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200
years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many
parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business
policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of
life. The power and influence of Universe Law (Universe Kingdom) this will always
affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or
unconsciously to anticipate properly.

About Me

I am a Fishery Biologist and have an MBA in Industrial Management with experiences in Forex, Stocks and Commodity since 1997. My vision is midterm and longterm for investment driven and shortterm trading. This support with experiences in Socioeconomic & Land Mapping Survey and Region Planning Report, so that I have Long Vision in Biocycle Dynamic Mechanism on Human Life Activities, include Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic or Natural Bio-Economic that based on Natural Law Driven.This method can be accurate and finely to know and predicted on Economic, Business, Technology, Social, Politic and Life Environment whats going on in the Future (midterm 1 - 5 years and longterm 5 - 25 years)