A recent glance at the GFS model run, brought to my attention a disturbance orignating from the tropics and riding it's way up to the Florida coast area. Could this be a ture tropical entity or a trof deepening as a result of a pressure difference? run:00Z model: GFS,map type: surface percipatation.

That complex is very intense, looks like some shear is on it but if that trof axis sufficently cross's land, then we may be in for a rude awakening. Not much steering currents around in the Carribbean now, but maybe we'll get some type of trof digging down and pull it up, the area is known for things like that. Or maybe it will become some sort of hybrid, it was dumping 4 inches of rain ride off of Florida's coast. I also noticed that the month of Novemember for Florida was suppose to be under the assumption that above average percipatation would be taking place. Does the model run on this bias or guidance?

I am headed down to Belize/Honduras on Tuesday/Wednesday for a cruise. I am slightly concerned about that large blob of convection sitting in the Caribbean. I'm too busy packing to look too much into things...so what do you all make of it? Am I going to have a cruise to remember?

You should be fine if it doesn't hit the island, no duh But if you here anything, leave as soon as you can. The sky drops cars of rain, remember Jeanne. Just be smart and make careful moves; that said have a great vacation!
Keith

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