2008-06-16

The East Sea gas field "deal"

Following what has already been discussed (i.e., There is no practical solution for Japan to build pipeline across the Okinawa Trench), the author concluded that Japan realized its rather weak position in negotiation (as I said over 2 years ago). However, it is also noted (correctly) that PRC also has its worry, i.e. sinject to the result of the Diaoyu dispute, Japan may be able to claim it share in the Chinese continental shelf. i.e. even if the sea trench in Okinawa is recognized as a trench not just a "depression" as Japan tried to argue.

Finally, the author is of the view that sharing profit in a Joint Venture (based on the amount of investment) is a face saver for the Japanese offered by Hu Jintao, which is not unlike the US-China joint venture in South China Sea or US venture in the Arabian Gulf. If he is right, then Japan will only be a passive investor (plus technological partner) in the venture west Japan's claim line. The terms will not differ much from that of a foreign investor (plus some limited benefits as bonus/sweetener)

Nevertheless, if the deal terms are as speculated above, it will still be a win-win deal. China will demonstrate to China bashers that it is willing to make deal and concession to be a good neighbor, sacrificing certain financial concession while winning a benign international environment for its development (Tai Guang Yang Hui). Japan, on the other hand, gains access to the gas field which it would otherwise not even be able to become a minor equity partner.

２－５ 解決法と共同開発についてこの問題を解決するには、中国の主張を受け入れた共同開発しかないと思われる。その根拠は次の３つがある。(1)「日本が主張する中間線の東側、大陸棚縁辺までの間は、中国も自国のEEZだと主張している地域だから、両国の合意がないかぎり井戸は掘れない。」[19]（2）日本本土への輸送コストが高く、採算が取れない可能性がある。(he agrees that the cost for extract is high for Japan's sdie)（3）「この海域の帰属権を国際司法裁判所に訴えても、日本が勝つとは限らない。国連海洋法条約からいえば、中国側の主張する『自然延長論』の方に分があると言われており、日本はこの海域の権利をすべて失う危惧すらある。」[20] それならば中国の提案に合意することが得策ではないだろうか。

(He also thinks the continental shelf argument is strong than the mid-line argument -- i.e. putting aside the Diaoyu/Senkaku issue, which is likely to be suspended in UN court)

His view seem to echo what I have discussed above (from the Japanese point of view and interests)

3、最靠近争议地区的是春晓、残雪、断桥和天外天4个油气田油气田，都于1998年开始勘测，其时日本并没有抗议，但是到2004年春晓修成以后日本却大发意见，虽然中国的油田甚至没有越过日本主张的中间线，但日本却说中国的油田把“日本的”资源“吸走了”，其实这是不可能的，大陆架东边更低，而油田在西边，石油只会王东边流 [not really true, it depends on how deep the shaft is drilled to -- S.]