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Staff Notes Daily Announcements

NCAR Senior Scientist Martyn Clark will be honored next week as a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) for his exceptional contribution to Earth science. NCAR Senior Scientist Bette Otto-Bliesnerhas been asked to give a prestigious lecture. Read more here.

NCAR Senior Scientist Martyn Clark will be honored next week as a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) for his exceptional contribution to Earth science. NCAR Senior Scientist Bette Otto-Bliesner has been asked to give a prestigious lecture. Read more here.

Former NCAR staffer Joseph (Joe) Choy, the first Mass Store System Group Head, passed away last week. He began work at the Scientific Computing Division (now CISL) in 1980, playing an instrumental role in the early data communications group, which has since become NETS. One of the many highlights of his career at NCAR was to lead the development and installation of the satellite internet network link between NCAR and the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. Joe was an integral part in the development of a mass storage system and computer networking at NCAR, and he is remembered fondly and with respect. For more about Joe, including his generous volunteer activities, see his Daily Camera obituary.

The UCAR Community Art Program cordially invites you to an art reception for oil painter Olga Karpeisky and acrylic and mixed media painter Joan Jordan. The reception is Saturday December 10th from 4:00 to 7:00 pm in the NCAR Mesa Lab cafeteria 1850 Table Mesa Dr. Boulder, CO. Small appetizers and non-alcohol drinks will be served. Come meet the artists and be inspired by their beautiful artwork! Hope to see you there!

Verification in Complex Terrain with Ensemble-Analysis including observation uncertainty

Simon Kloiber, University of Vienna

Traditionally, verification means to verify a forecast (ensemble) with the truth represented by observations. The observation errors are quite often neglected arguing that they are small when compared to the forecast error.

In this study as part of the MesoVICT (Mesoscale Verification Intercomparison over Complex Terrain) project it will be shown, that observation errors have to be taken into account for verification purposes. The Observation uncertainty is estimated from the VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) and represented via two analysis ensembles which are compared to the forecast ensemble. For the whole study the COSMO-LEPS provided by Arpae-SIMC Emilia-Romagna are used as forecast ensemble. The time period covers the MesoVICT core case from 20-22 June 2007.

For the first part, developing verification methods to compare two ensembles, knowledge about their distribution is necessary. To answer that question, tests have been executed (Kolmogorov-Smirnov-Test, Finkelstein-Schafer Test, Chi-Square Test etc.) and they haven’t shown an exact mathematical distribution. So the main focus is on non-parametric statistics (e.g. Kernel density estimation, Boxplots etc.) and also the deviation between “forced” normal distributed data and the kernel density estimations.

In the second part, the observational deviations due to the analysis ensembles are represented. A boxplot shows the range of a score, which is calculated multiple times with every ensemble member as the “true” observation. Additionally, the bootstrapping method may also provide a boxplot, if two ensembles getting compared. These possible approaches to incorporating observational uncertainty into the computation of statistics will be discussed in the talk.

UCAR’s Delphi Service (log in with your Google password) was created in 1974 to give staff a vehicle to ask management about UCAR policies and practices in a confidential manner. Submit questions to the Delphi Coordinator: Marc Genty, Mesa Lab Room 39D, mgenty@ucar.edu, ext 1210. Staff can submit questions the following ways: 1. Interoffice mail in a sealed envelope marked "confidential,” 2. Email, with “confidential” in the subject line, or 3. US mail to the Delphi Coordinator’s home (call the coordinator to get his home address).

All questions must include your name and contact information so the coordinator can correspond confidentially with you. Questions and answers of general interest will be published in Staff Notes Daily.

If you're going to the AGU or AMS meetings this winter, or visiting university campuses, please take a few minutes to read over our new elevator pitch (link below) describing our educational and visitor opportunities at NCAR and UCAR. We offer multiple ways for the university community, from students to faculty, to get involved, and we're doing our best to get the word out. Please help us by taking our message with you, and letting people know about their chances to visit, attend training and workshops, and get resources from us.

You’ll find links to the pitch, presentation slide templates, and more speaking tools online at

More information about all of our opportunities, programs and resources will be at the NCAR and UCAR booths. If you have any questions, please contact me (carolyn@ucar.edu) and I'll be happy to tell you more.

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