5.31.2008

The Rules and Bylaws committee is about to convene, and it is remarkable that the Democratic primaries have made a meeting about party rules must-see political spectacle. It will take a few hours to figure out what decision -- if any -- comes out of the committee, so for now let's start with the day with a look at the latest polls. I never thought the day would come when I would lead a poll update post with a survey from Wyoming, but a Research 2000 poll released yesterday is certainly noteworthy:

In the open and at-large House seat currently held by Republican Rep. Cubin, Democrat Gary Trauner narrowly leads Republican Cynthia Lummis, 44% to 41%. Among independents, Trauner leads 58% to 32%.

In the presidential match-up, John McCain is leading Obama 53% to 40% in a state Bush triumphed in 2004 69% to 29%. Obama has the narrowest of leads among independents.

There are many signs that the GOP is in trouble in the Mountain West and that the Republican brand is suffering in many states in which the party is used to dominate. Wyoming is too red a state for Democrats to have a chance at the presidential level, but a Trauner victory would be a shocking development that seems very much in reach. Keep in mind that at-large congressmen positions are often stepping-stones for statewide office, either the governorship or the Senate, so a House victory by Trauner could cost the GOP a Senate seat down the line (see North Dakota, for instance, where the entire congressional delegation is made up of Democrats).

Meanwhile, three general election polls were released yesterday by three different polling institutes:

In Wisconsin, SUSA found Obama ahead of McCain 48% to 42% in its latest installment of VP match-ups. Obama leads McCain by 17% among independents. When vice-presidents are included, the range varies though there is little surprising that cannot be explained by name recognition.

In California, the all-important Field Poll finds both Democrats leading McCain by 17%: 52% to 35% for Obama and 53% to 36% for Clinton.

In Washington, the Elway poll finds Democrats leading as well, 44% to 38% for Obama and 41% to 36% for Clinton. 74% of Clinton supporters would vote for Obama, which is certainly a decent number.

No surprises in those match-ups, except perhaps the fact that Obama does not run stronger than Clinton in Washington. After all, the Pacific Northwest is a region in which Obama typically runs better than Clinton. Also, the latter poll suggests that Washington State is not quite as secure for Obama as some have been suggesting. It is true that Obama's appeal will be strong here, but the McCain campaign believes that it, too, can find a way to woo Washington independents. As for California, there have been some polls in recent weeks that have found a single-digit race but most surveys found McCain lagging far behind. This is key, for Democrats cannot afford to waste any time and money defending the Golden State without which they have no electoral path to the White House.

12 Comments:

Yeah I'm going to be watching most of the Rules and Bylaws commitee meeting today and I have a feeling that if Clinton complains, it will be about Michigan, not Florida..

On Wyoming, you are right Taniel. Obama is not going to win that state, netherless the fact is that Wyoming was Bush's second best state in 2004 (after Utah) and the fact that Obama is doing much better (albeit still not competive) is good news for Trauner. Just like what Kos said, Obama won't be as much as a drag on the ticket as perhaps Clinton would have, and indeed if he wins he could be top tier candidate for a Senate seat or Governor. Its not impossible: the current WY gov is popular Dem Gov. Frendutahl (?)

I wonder if my state allows for a "half vote"? I guess if Half-vote Obama wins the nomination I'll have to look for a "half vote" lever? Bad strategy to offer a concession of only screwing half the voters. Half-vote Obama is going to be a nickname he's stuck with now forever.

Anon - no he won`t be stuck with that made up nickname. Anymore than you will be stuck with "cowardly Anon"

I was hoping CA would be about 8 points, that way McCain is lured into spending time and money on a fools errand. At least Obama knows there are certain states he will not win like KT and WV so he doesn`t need to bother. Clinton on the other hand would have to spend time and money and could still lose them.

I have to share a story. I was going skiing in Wyoming this past winter, and I had a vague recollection of the 2006 congressional race being surprisingly close. I thought maybe if the Democratic candidate was running again, and if he happened to be in the Jackson Hole area, I might be able to meet him. (I figured: a Democrat running in Wyoming, how busy can he be?) I called his campaign office, and they set it up.

Getting to talk with Gary Trauner was a highlight of the week. And that's saying a lot, because it was a pretty amazing ski season last winter!

Wyoming has a large libertarian streak, not unlike (though perhaps not to the quite extent as) New Hampshire. A few years ago, I don't think many people thought NH would have two Democratic House members and a likely Democratic Senator. Though Wyoming is big on energy development, environmental issues are becoming a major concern as well. Lots of people there like hunting and fishing, and visitors who are good for the economy like hunting and fishing, and more people are questioning energy development that harms wildlife and the landscape. And the Bush administration's self-proclaimed expansion of executive power doesn't play well with some people out there.

Trauner has advantages and disadvantages this time around. The retiring Republican incumbent was very unpopular, and it would have been better for Trauner if he had had a rematch. But on the other hand, he doesn't have to do name recognition work all over again, and Republicans can't use the seniority argument against him. Last time, Republicans ran ads about the possibility of the House changing hands saying "We don't want Pelosi's San Francisco values here in Wyoming." But control won't change this election, so that tactic won't be as effective.

Should be interesting to see how it plays out. Trauner's race was under the radar last time; this time the DCCC will be paying a lot more attention.

I've been trying to line up a Democrat running mate from Obama that may be under the radar. I'd think that Vilsack would be an ideal candidate. I like the thought of having a fiftish midwesterner as VP. I think he's got a good personality, is smart, and would be a good supporter for Obama. I can't blame him for endorsing Clinton--she was much more known than Obama at the time.

For Attorney General, I think John Edwards is the man. I see Chuck Hagel as possibly Secretary of Defense (or Sam Nunn, that is).

I totally agree with dsimon, I have been taking my kids to Jackson Hole the last three years, and folks in Wyoming are not the rabbid right wingers some would make you believe they are. I really believe those folks are ready for some kind of change. Environmentalism and conservation are not dirty words there and believe me, gas pricess have really hurt a lot of people in the state. Conservative, yes. Libertarians, many. But very receptive to the right message, specially now, after 8 years of the Bush gang.

I have been taking my kids to Jackson Hole the last three years, and folks in Wyoming are not the rabbid right wingers some would make you believe they are.

I love Jackson Hole, been going there for years. But one must keep in mind that Jackson County is very different from the rest of the state, and that many Wyomingans (?) view Jackson County with some suspicion.

One of the things that makes Trauner an impressive candidate is that he's done well despite the fact that he lives in Jackson! Trauner told me that many towns are starting to resent the runaway energy development going on in their back yards. He said some of them are asking the federal government for help without even realizing it.

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