Breakingviews: Murdoch's big blunder

The octogenarian media mogul miscalculated in his $80 bln bid for Time Warner, but could yet turn out to be crazy like a Fox. Jeffrey Goldfarb and Antony Currie explain.

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That's not Rupert Murdoch has miscalculated. The octogenarian -- attorney for a century fox decided yesterday. He was giving development plans to take time and Time Warner but -- you -- in this. It exists time won't boss Jeff Bewkes matching -- -- the preakness yeah I mean extra thing here is that your report rockets a lot of credit for being a very clever tactician and Andy obviously has been. Over the course you don't here. In this instance though. I mean I think he he really kind of felt things up you bought this business in three kind of -- -- The first is that he clearly had some discussions with Jeff Bewkes of time. Clearly misread the body language -- winning with an offer. You know probably on the basis that he thought it was gonna get somewhere doesn't -- -- billion dollars and 80000000085. Dollars a share cash without you know probably thought -- this is gonna -- seal the deal but apart from instead he -- it. Instead the response from Time Warner was thank. There's no amount of money you can offer us that will be better than what we can do on our -- -- -- more than mystery body language distilled deaths obviously got it wrong there. The second thing is I think he really. Failed to understand how his own investors see him right they've gotten very -- comfortable. And accustomed to buybacks and dividends that he's been using its capital a sort of smartly on this. And instead it got really scared and it's always been a bit Murdoch was gonna refer to his old ways and spend whatever talked him at the steel -- -- -- this out before that you spent a lot of money. And it resemblance recent months at least that we attacked and he is it was when he pulled that shouldn't have -- general was wiped out -- -- -- the -- -- a -- -- it down you know within -- within -- -- -- So I think -- have been the fox shares went down by 11%. Part of that was because people don't know he's gonna raises it to some whatever number he wants him to the north to -- -- what he's done. -- he -- -- read that the third thing is I think he underestimated how people see. His second here nonvoting stock which is what he wanted to use he was using that -- component of the bit. And the fact of the matter is there is a lot of -- through time or Sheryl -- and if after -- Cheryl with. But if you look at the way. The you know the non Murdoch's that owns stock in fox and voted. They're not happy with the governing structure there and we're not finished in the in the paper and you know you just you know sort of made this point. At the end of the day though you know. Murdoch may look clever and he's not he's not wakes me that this folks -- once it's back up to mostly stock is not god he's giving six billion dollars back to shareholders which is what they like -- Because on the other hand as -- stocks heading right back down at some good results this morning. But at same time he's he's the one that's got to prove that he can get back to 85 dollars here maybe a little bit more. So you know in the end if you can't do it Murdoch winds up looking you know. Look you know kind of clever again so not not that he -- of a deal we elected and you know exactly -- Jeff thanks of that and will be back seemed more breaking t.'s.

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