2014 Edmonton Oilers prospects: #9 Dillon Simpson

Such can certainly be the case with NCAA-trained defencemen, many of whom take the fast track to the NHL once they finally emerge from the black box that is their amateur career.

Dillon Simpson may be the latest example, or then again he might not. It’s exceedingly difficult to get a read on college players, defencemen in particular, until they get a chance to show their wares against professional competition. Simpson is set to do just that in 2014-15 after an impressive four-year career at the University of North Dakota.

For now all we have is first-person accounts from his heartbreaking college finale and Oilers summer camp, where he left a positive impression on this amateur bird dog both times. There are also glowing words from his alma mater, including these from the UND blog SiouxSports.com discussing his pending absence for the 2014-15 season:

North Dakota will lose Dillon Simpson to graduation, and there is no doubt that his absence will leave a definite void. The senior captain appeared in 156 games in the North Dakota sweater, potting 16 goals and notching 59 assists. He led the nation in blocked shots this season (109 in 42 games) and was recently named to the All-College Hockey News first team. There is no way that UND can replace that type of leadership with just one player.

We also have boxcar statistics, notoriously unreliable for d-men, especially for let-the-puck-do-the-work types like Simpson. Take a look at this group of post-lockout rearguards, Oilers past and (hopefully) future, who all spent the full four years learning their craft at the NCAA level:

Two of them were drafted in the fourth round, another in the fifth, the other not at all, so all were long-term projects back in their draft year. Which is who?

Player A is Tom Gilbert, a Colorado draft traded to the Oilers while still an unknown. He emerged quickly as a pro and was promoted to the NHL for good late in his rookie season, after just 48 AHL games. He’s now a 520-game NHL vet who just signed a two-year pact with Montreal Canadiens.

Player B, with similar college numbers as Gilbert, is Taylor Fedun. Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Oilers, Fedun appeared on the verge of cracking the (very weak) Oilers defence corps on his first go in 2011 before suffering a severe injury late in training camp. After a year to recover and two more in minor pro, Fedun has just 4 NHL games on his resume, compared to 135 in the AHL. Freshly signed by San Jose Sharks, his future remains an open book.

Player C has nominally the worst offensive numbers of the four. That is Mark Fayne, who needed just 19 games of AHL apprenticeship before being fast-tracked to New Jersey Devils, for whom he played 242 games. Fayne was signed to a four-year deal by the Oilers this summer and is considered a key player on the revamped Edmonton blueline.

Player D is of course Dillon Simpson, who slots somewhere in the middle of the group in point production and doesn’t look out of place at all, though of course we know nothing at all yet about the professional part of his career.

What jumps off the table about Simpson is the age discrepancy — he was 17 when he started at UND and already had a year of NCAA under his belt before he was even draft eligible. The rest were already 19 before they got their first taste of college puck, and 22 by the time they graduated. Simpson had just turned 21 when he played his last game at UND, where he had been the youngest captain in the storied program in over 20 years.

He comes by that honestly enough. His dad, former Oiler Craig Simpson, was playing NCAA at the tender age of 16. Like his dad, Dillon was a brilliant student, routinely earning academic honours. After signing with the Oilers last spring, Simpson stayed at UND to finish out his degree rather than play a few games with Oklahoma City to close out the year. Thus his next professional game will be his first.

Will he be ready to make an impact at the NHL in his first pro season, in the manner of Fayne, Gilbert, or three-year college men like Matt Greene, Jeff Petry, and Justin Schultz? Those latter three, second-round picks all, needed just 26, 51, and 34 games of AHL seasoning respectively before being deemed ready to make the leap. On the other side of the ledger stands Taylor Chorney, another second-rounder deemed an excellent prospect when he left UND at 21. Six years later, he’s still buried in the AHL. How do we know Dillon Simpson isn’t going to be that player? The short answer is, we don’t.

My own bet is that Simpson won’t be fast-tracked in the manner of a few of the defenders mentioned above. Two reasons: the tremendous prospect depth in the Oilers organization at the defence position, far superior to what was in place when the likes of Gilbert, Petry and Schultz made the jump. The other is his tender age; even as a full-fledged college grad he’s a year or more ahead of most of those dudes and might be well-served to spend that year soaking up the pro game at the AHL level.

Expectations for 2014-15: A solid first pro camp, complete with words of praise from the coaching staff about the subtle intelligence of his game before he’s sent out in one of the later cuts. There may be some uncertainty and even the odd game in the press box at OKC as Todd Nelson tries to figure out how to divide 6 by 8, but the left-shooter’s ability to play right side will serve him well in a group that is primarily natural lefties. I anticipate Simpson will soon become a regular, likely within the top four. Despite his rookie status he may well be more advanced than some of the second- and even third-year pros who advanced through junior ranks, and might work his way up the recall list depending on how things break on the injury front with the big club. He’s still a draft-and-follow, but now we can finally get a solid read measuring him against his peers.

This Week's Flyers

Comments

Postmedia is pleased to bring you a new commenting experience. We are committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.