CHART OF THE DAY: $4 Gas - How Could We Ever Forget?

REGIONALS ROLLING

I guess we are not talking about explosive growth, but March was pretty strong and certainly improved sequentially.

Following up to our positive regional gaming note on 3/28/11, state gaming revenue releases have so far confirmed our positive assertions. Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Iowa are in and with the exception of the perpetual laggard Illinois, March was a strong month for regional gaming. Our two favorite names our PNK and ASCA and both are poised to beat Q1 estimates quite handily in our opinion.

We are making it a habit to look at sequential revenue adjusted for seasonality instead of just looking at YoY growth given the extreme volatility over the past few years. March 2011 was clearly a solid month on a YoY basis but more importantly was a step up sequentially.

The following charts show the recent trends of the mature regional gaming markets that have already released March gaming revenues. We show actual gaming revenues as well as what was predicted by our model for each month based on the previous 3 months, adjusted for historical seasonality. As can be seen, March was a much stronger month than the model prediction, indicating fairly significant sequential improvement in each of the markets presented.

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04/11/11 09:08 PM EDT

GIL: Deal Kinda Makes Sense

I could raise serious concerns about the timing and synergy opportunities for Gildan/Gold Toe. But there are strategic benefits, and stocks don't go down when estimates go up. Net/net: It's a positive near-term.

Bull Case For The Deal

Deceleration in Gildan’s top line starting in the quarter to be reported on May 11 is a near-mathematical certainty. And yes, they’ve locked in only 55% of cotton costs for 4Q – and it’s at $1.25 – with minimal hedging in 2012. There’s one easy way to get out of your way of a collapse in operating profit growth – buy something. Regardless of whether people like us frown upon this practice, the reality is that it doesn’t matter. If earnings go up, the stock isn’t going down.

I like the diversification factor ,which should improve stability and earnings predictability, which is something I’m willing to award a higher multiple. Specific changes are as follows…

It cuts Broder’s ‘material customer’ risk by nearly half

Lowers exposure to Latin America from a sourcing perspective (virtually all of Gold Toe’s product is outsourced to Asia – unlike GIL, which is all vertical in Honduras and Dominican Republic).

Trades off capital intensity for working capital intensity. The latter gives a less painful spank when revenue declines.

The deal actually gives Gildan brands that consumers know.

Great CEO in Steve Lineberger, but vital that he to stays on. He’s an industry veteran who was vital in several iterations of HBI’s restructurings. If he ultimately takes on a higher profile role at Gildan, it could be meaningful.

Even though it is a tiny percent of revenue, the fact that Gold Toe makes UnderArmour’s socks is solid. All the company needs to do is put a big UA logo on its IR marketing materials and it gets instant credibility (it makes socks for New Balance too).

At the end of the day, the 7.2x EBITDA multiple isn’t half bad. We’ve seen assets in the intimate apparel space sell routinely for 3-6x EBITDA. But if we give the company credit for synergies, we’re looking at a multiple closer to 5.5x.

Bear Case for Gold Toe

1) The timing of the deal is very suspect, as noted in point #1 above. Examples where companies succeed in buying assets to shield organic revenue from slowing are few and far between.

2) The company has been shrinking. Steve Schwarzman (Blackstone) has been trying to unload this puppy since early 2010 when it was $350mm in sales. Now it is $280mm. This revenue loss was mostly on the private label side – much of which was unprofitable. But overall, we like sales streams that are going up, not down.

4) Why not pre-announce 2Q results with this deal? C’mon… the quarter ended 12 days ago and the Street’s revenue estimate is for 25% top line growth compared to guidance of 15%.

5) It was pretty clear from management’s comments on the call that Gold Toe is just as wide-open to input costs as Gildan. They are relying on pricing to stick. It might very well stick, but I don’t want to bank on it.

6) Synergies are difficult to bank on.

First off, management’s answer to the question asking for clarification on drivers for synergies was unacceptable.

Second, they’ve got to be on the revenue side. Why? Really…do you think that there are ANY costs left to cut after years under Blackstone’s (or any PE firm’s) ownership? No.

With a sub-12% SG&A ratio, Gildan is, and has been, one of the leanest companies around.

There are no tax synergies, as the tax rate is going up, not down (to a whopping high-single-digit rate).

Netting all this out, it suggests to us that synergies need to be manufacturing-related. Yes, GIL is extremely efficient with their manufacturing ops, but even without acquisitions, it has ‘manufacturing issues’ every few quarters.

Conference Call-Outs

GIL acquiring Gold Toe for $350mm – assuming no debt.

2010 revs $280mm

EBITDA $48.6mm

Highlights from the Call:

can leverage GT brand to the mass market via Gildan's facitilities

Have already met with both UA and New Balance re the acquisition, both companies have already approved the continuation of licenses

Combined entity will have sock revenues of ~$500mm

Gold-Toe will complement Gildan's existing private label business

Senior Mgmt of GT will stay on with GIL

Also has long standing sourcing network

~80% of product sourced from Asian contractors

$350mm purchase price equate to 7.2x EBITDA

Gold-Toe has so far been successful in passing through price

$10-$15mm in cost synergies:

Expect annual amortization of intangibles of ~$10mm

Tax rate expected to be close to 25%

Purchase price includes more than $100mm in operating loss carry forwards

Also unfunded pension liab's of $15mm-$20mm pretax

Expect the deal to be immediately accretive to EPS

Deal fulfills the 3rd leg of three-pronged retail marketing approach:

Selectively pursue private-label brands from mass market retailers

Develop the Gildan brand

Look for brands or licenses in channel of distribution where GIL isn't

Positions Gildan as the largest sock provider in the world

Deal fills the void that Gildan had in terms of enhancing distribution = product for certain channels

Believe they will be able to significantly expand their distribution - "there is no overlap whatsoever"

Largest sock customer = ~60% of volume will now equal ~30% of aggregate volume of combined entity

Can assume 2010 EBITDA as a base from which to grow (even with some SKU rationalization)

Cost Synergies:

Primarily in manufacturing and distribution

Shifting some manufacturing to existing facilities in Honduras

GIL's ultimate capacity is 65mm dozen, had been producing 52mm dzn at year end - the difference will be used to accommodate GT product

License Deals:

Both UA and NB deals expire in 2013, but feel that they will be able to renew

Manufacturing Strategy:

Not intent to eventually manufacture GT product in-house

GT mgmt strength in outsourcing

GT's expansion into underwear - Gildan could manufacture in own plants

GT just launched the new underwear brand so still very new in the process

P&L:

GMs higher, SG&A somewhat higher than GIL's

Average ASPs for GT ~$4/dozen

Purchase price via cash v. debt?

Probably use about ~$200mm to finance the deal at ~1% (LIBOR + 75bps)

Tax impact of deal on consolidated rate will be to increase it to 5-6% from 3-4% currently

Cotton costs:

Already have passed through price increases they expect to offset higher cost of cotton

Have lower amount of cotton in product relative to GIL socks

Gold-Toe owned store base plan?

They do own roughly 29 stores - mostly in factory outlet malls

They're profitable for GT and GIL plans to continue to operate them going forward

Will report Q2 May 11th

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NKE: Ditching the Money Losers

Nike announced this morning that it is closing down the Denver NikeTown. This is a good thing. For those of you that have not been in a NikeTown, they’re massive flagship stores that do nothing but hemorrhage cash.

That’s probably not an entirely fair statement, as running SOME of these stores -- the ones that are strategically positioned in high-quality, high-traffic locations – help build brand awareness in a way that marketing dollars would otherwise be spent.

NikeTown Denver joins Costa Mesa and Honolulu as the mammoth stores closed over the past several years.

The good news is that this really leaves only one major money-loser – which is NikeTown Portland. Why such a money loser? It disproportionately relies on tourists, as locals are going to know at least someone who works at Nike who can get them gear at the employee store at half price. As it relates to tourists -- although Portland is a beautiful city, it is not a travel destination like New York, Las Vegas or London. But in the end, it’d probably be both embarrassing, and politically unpopular for the company to close down its presence in downtown Portland.

The positive impact here is less than a penny per share. So it really doesn’t move the needle. But it’s the kind of move Nike shareholders should want to see. Most importantly, it does NOT signify a shift away from retail, but rather a step toward profit.

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04/11/11 02:21 PM EDT

The commodities crunch hits homebuilders hard

European Risk Monitor: Negative Greek Divergence

Positions in Europe: Long British Pound (FXB); Short Spain (EWP)

If nothing else, the European discourse in recent weeks has proven out Keith’s Keynesian Endgame thesis – European leaders will continue to throw money and more favorable loan terms at member countries to prevent the failure of any one country, and therein preserve the structure that unifies unequal countries that share a common currency. This, along with the recent hawkish stance of the ECB and 25bps interest rate hike on April 7th, has been bullish for the EUR, currently pushing against $1.45 versus the USD.

With Portugal’s bailout imminent (in the neighborhood of €50-80 Billion), Greece’s fiscal issues are bubbling back to the surface. This weekend at a meeting of European finance ministers in Hungary, German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble re-stoked the fear trade by saying that Greece may need more capital and/or more favorable loan terms to return to fiscal health. The statement in and of itself comes as no great surprise – remember that Greece’s debt as a % of GDP is expected to ramp to 159% in 2012, and we’re of the camp that PM Papandreou and Co. will come well short of their target to reduce the country’s deficit from a high of 15.4% of GDP in 2009 to 3% by 2014 – yet the Greek equity index ATHEX was pounded down a full -2.6% on the news today.

This weekend’s meeting also opened up the prospect of a further restructuring of Greek government debt, with EU Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn saying, “We have a solid plan. It is based on a very careful analysis of debt sustainability”. Translation: let’s fill up the trough. And this follows the already generous terms of the country’s €110 Billion bailout, which were amended last month to include repayment in 7.5 years instead of 3 and a cut to the interest rate of 100bps to around 3.5%.

Hedgeye’s weekly European Risk Monitor shows that Greek bank swaps (in particular) pushed higher after improving on the margin last week (see chart below). Sovereign CDS spreads show a near-term downward inflection in risk for Ireland and Portugal, while on the TREND Greece pushes higher as Spain and Italy wane (chart below).

Matthew Hedrick

Analyst

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