* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

David M. |
14. August 2011

Ok, I'll ask.

@Tonybass100,
Did you reserve months ago or just now? Because we're currently at (S)393. Or did you mean (R)276?

gibren |
14. August 2011

Just registered for a signature on Friday, Aug. 12th. I couldnt transfer the $40k because it was too late in the day. I tried on Saturday, but the online banking wouldnt let me do it. I will transfer the $ tomorrow and see what number S I get. I am very excited for the Model S and can't wait to go out in October and take a tour of the Fremont facility. Hasta.

Your Reservation Sequence number is 4,724 of the General Production reservation list.

Numbers seem to be going fast now that the Beta's are getting closer...

David M. |
18. August 2011

WOW. More than 150 cars reserved in just about a week! After the Oct. 1 Model S event and all of the press coverage, I have no doubt we'll be at a 600 per month pace in the 4th Qtr.

A high number of reservations should give Tesla the confidence (and capital) to open up many more stores in 2012.

Volker.Berlin |
18. August 2011

After the Oct. 1 Model S event and all of the press coverage, I have no doubt we'll be at a 600 per month pace in the 4th Qtr. (David M.)

Maybe, maybe not. There are only so many early adopters who can afford a car like this, and want one. The average Joe Carbuyer may be more skeptical wrt the new tech, and may be turned away by the length of the line in front. When Joe learns about the Model S in October 2011, he will also learn that the first year's production is already sold out, i.e., any new reservation holder will have to wait for about two years from placing his/her reservation, for some time to come.

So I think it is possible that the high number of reservations at this early stage will have a negative impact on the increase of the reservation rate in the near feature. Of course, that's all speculation, I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

michiganmodels |
18. August 2011

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

@Volker.B,
The high reservation rate over the last week makes sense. Apparently there are quite a few people who are willing spend (a refundable) $5,000 in order to attend the reservation holder event on Oct. 1. Maybe not sustainable.

However, all of the current reservation holders were perfectly willing to wait 18 months, so who's to say there aren't another several thousand people willing to do the same. Anyway, it gives them some time to get their money together.

michiganmodels |
19. August 2011

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

Wow! an increase of 53 in ½ a day! So with 131 days left, that makes a linear extrapolation of 131 x 2 x 53 = 13,886 more to arrive before Jan. 1/2012!

;)

Brian H |
22. August 2011

P.S. That would make a total of 20,206. So that's the new benchmark to aim for!

MTriantafelow |
22. August 2011

I don't expect this bump will last. I think we are just pulling forward reservations that would have happened at a later date if not for the Oct. 1 factory event. I suspect we will see a rather sharp drop-off in our reservation rate soon and then a return to normalcy.

That is unless Tesla gets enough good press from the event that it can create enough new interest to fill the void. If we do not see a steep drop in our reservation rate by the end of Oct. then that would be a very interesting data point indeed.

P.S. Just looking at the rate on a single day isn't very useful in my opinion, especially since we don't even get data every day. I'm using a trailing 30-day average. I think that is much more meaningful. My numbers show us at an average rate of about 17.70 reservations per day. A "normal" rate was more like 10 or 11 reservations a day.

Brian H |
24. August 2011

MT;
I was joking. The clue, if the content wasn't enough to tell you, was the Wink smilie at the end of the first post.

Like this: ;)

David M. |
24. August 2011

I do think we will see a few more bumps before Spring 2012.
1. There will likely be another bump in the first 2 weeks of Oct. 2011 after the press hype up the Fremont event.
2. There will be another bump when the Model S arrives in Tesla Stores sometime in early 2012.
3. Final bump will be when production begins, and the press hype up the event.

I don't expect Tesla to advertise, but if they launched just one TV spot in 2012, the reservations would go through the roof. That may not be good, unless they intend to run two shifts in the factory, to double production. I believe they already have some significant challenges to delivering 1,000+ cars per month to consumers (with only 11 small stores in the USA). Logistics. Don't know how they could achieve twice as many deliveries.

MTriantafelow |
24. August 2011

Brian H.,

I realize you were joking. Wasn't trying to take a crack at you. I think trying to guess how many reservations we may have by the end of the year is a worthwhile exercise, so I was just taking the opportunity to provide some data that might help anyone that wanted to try.

Nicu |
24. August 2011

I bet they will run three shifts if the demand is there. There is no way they are going to sleep and let the production line unused while the queue is increasing faster than production. They announced in 1st Q earnings report that the line has full capacity of 20k cars per year and per shift.

mcornwell |
25. August 2011

Anyone have time to go through the thread and make a graph of the reservation rate?