Oil rises ahead of U.S. weekly inventory figures

18 January, 2018, 14:21 | Author: Barbara Daniel

Al-Sabah acknowledged the positive response of the oil market to the implementation of the "Declaration of Cooperation" in 2017, including the unprecedented high levels of conformity with the voluntary production adjustments, with participating countries seeing average monthly conformity levels of more than 100 percent throughout the whole year. While soaring prices have prompted warnings - from Iran's oil minister to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. - of a fresh surge in USA production, ministers from the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait insist there's no need to change tack and the cartel will stick with its plan to restrain output for the rest of the year.

US crude output is expected to soon break 10 million bpd, challenging top producers Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia.

Brent has risen from $61 a barrel in early December and some analysts say the rally may be about to run out of steam. But the bank believes there will be a lag in the price response, which could allow prices to keep running up.

The group's output cuts are aimed at bringing OECD commercial stockpile levels back to the five-year average. The government releases its weekly report tomorrow.

US crude inventories were estimated to have fallen 3.5 million barrels in the week ended January 12, according to a Reuters poll.

In a note on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley said it now sees Brent hitting $75 a barrel by the third quarter of 2018, while USA crude could hit $70 a barrel. This means that current oil prices are higher than prices for crude deliveries in the future.

New York's NYMEХ (New York Merchantile Exchange) is a United States futures market founded in 1882. "As these flows can be much larger than physical flows, this should drive oil futures prices higher during the course of this year", Rats wrote on Monday.

Money managers have raised bullish positions in WTI and Brent crude futures and options to a record, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Intercontinental Exchange.

OPEC and several other non-OPEC producers have reached an agreement to extend the production deal for a further nine months.

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