Virus spreading in public transport networks: the alarming consequences of the business as usual scenario

Public transport worldwide is heavily affected by the coronavirus pandemic. In a period where sharing and crowding are becoming a public health concern, the connectivity and efficiency offered by mass transport become a potential peril.

Researchers Oded Cats and Panchamy Krishnakumari of TU Delft’s Smart Public Transport Lab and the Dittlab (Data Analytics & Traffic Simulation) asked themselves two questions: How quickly and adversely does a virus spread in a public transport system? And how many will potentially get infected if pre-pandemic ridership levels are expected while aiming to maintain social distancing?

They explored this by studying the evolution of contract networks and an epidemiological model using a sample of smart card data from the Washington DC metro network. They report on their findings in a short article that they recently published on LinkedIn.