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Shares of inched higher Wednesday, a day after surging on speculation it could be the target of a billion-dollar bet from activist investor William Ackman.

When news broke that Ackman’s Pershing Square is seeking co-investors on a new special purpose vehicle that would target a major U.S. company, traders began speculating on his potential target, with the initial focus on FedEx before extending to residential security company .

Analysts that track the parcel shipper were not swayed by the market chatter though, pointing out reasons to doubt FedEx is Ackman's prize and the high bar for any activist to have success shaking things up at the company.

In a note Wednesday RBC Capital analyst John Barnes writes that FedEx “falls short on the more salient criteria” outlined in Ackman’s letter to prospective investors, “namely high customer switching costs and significant pricing power.”

RBC reiterated its underperform rating on FedEx shares, while acknowledging that an actual investment from Pershing could potentially move the stock materially higher – though snarky critics of Ackman’s record have quipped that the reaction should be the opposite. “Until then, we believe our fundamental analysis is correct and the current earnings outlook for FDX doesn’t support the current stock price or valuation,” Barnes writes.

The company though, is facing some challenges that could attract investors with a mind for change. FedEx“is struggling with a bloated Express infrastructure and cost structure, an under-utilized aircraft fleet and dealing with the trade down from air service to ground service,” Barnes notes, and "management has further work to do in order to improve the Express and consolidated corporate profitability.”

But even if an investor wanted to come in an light a fire under the people on FedEx's executive floor, founder, chairman and CEO Fred Smith controls about 5% of the company, according to FactSet, and would prove a formidable adversary. JPMorgan analyst Thomas Wadewitz notes that in Ackman’s successful fight for change at railroad operator Canadian Pacific he was able to enlist the support of well-regarded industry veteran Hunter Harrison for his effort to oust former chief Fred Green.

“[W]e do not see an obvious candidate in small package who has the reputation and compelling track record” Harrison did in railroads, Wadewitz writes, and Ackman's recent track record has also included changes in the corner office at (twice) and .

ADT meanwhile, the other name that bubbled up as a potential target for Ackman, is considerably smaller than FedEx, but has already drawn interest from former Carl Icahn lieutenant Keith Meister, who joined the security company’s board in December after his hedge fund Corvex Management amassed a 5% ownership stake.

While Ackman has dealt with other hedge funds in a number of investments – as sympathizers and adversaries -- the size of ADT and Meister’s entrenched position are reasons to be skeptical.

Pershing Square is staying silent, declining requests for comment on the target, but whatever stock it is angling for won't be a secret for too long. If Ackman successfully courts investors for the co-investment he will need to reveal the holding in short order due to SEC rules requiring the disclosure of stakes greater than 5% in publicly-traded stocks. The letter sent to prospective investors is said to request commitments by a week from Wednesday, July 17.