PM cannot escape from the Thomson stench

The messy business of minority government has an awful smell which will linger for as long as the Labor Party depends on
Craig Thomson
’s support to hang on to power.

The damage this will do will start today, with the federal budget being brought down by Treasurer
Wayne Swan
immediately overshadowed by the appalling details of Fair Work Australia’s findings from its investigations into Thomson’s administration of the Health Services Union.

The government needs Thomson’s vote in the Parliament to pass the budget. With Speaker
Peter Slipper
on the parliamentary sidelines because of the ugly matters surrounding him, Labor can be sure of just a one-seat majority, with the support of the crossbench MPs including Thomson.

When Prime Minister
Julia Gillard
finally recognised the political horror that was heading her way from the Thomson affair, she moved to put distance between herself and Thomson by negotiating his suspension from the party.

But the distance between her government and Thomson is only technical.

His vote from the crossbenches will be as important to the Gillard government as it would have been if he stayed in the Labor Party.

Thomson is a product of the Labor Party and its union base.

He was preselected by the Labor Party after the matters which are so graphically – and damningly – set out it the Fair Work Australia report occurred. Labor, and Gillard in particular, gave Thomson the benefit of the doubt throughout the very long FWA inquiry, based on Thomson’s consistent personal assurances that he had no case to answer.

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Now she faces the prospect of paying a high price for this misjudgment.

Because of the numbers on the floor of Parliament, Thomson is a monkey on her back that Gillard cannot shake off.

Thomson will almost certainly insist on his right to be presumed innocent until the legal process which the FWA report will lead to is finalised.

Only a finding of guilty of a criminal offence with a penalty of more than 12 months’ jail would disqualify him from sitting in Parliament.

But even if Thomson was inclined to resign, Labor would lose his seat at a by-election.

So Gillard cannot afford for Thomson to leave Parliament; she needs his vote.

His vote will bring with it a heavy political cost from which
Tony Abbott
is certain to exact every last cent of value.

The combination of the mess that now surrounds Thomson and the prospect of a long suspension from the service of the house for Speaker Slipper has created huge new political hurdles for a government already suffering a profound credibility deficit.

An already grim situation for Gillard and her government has just got grimmer.