Dire warnings that New York businesses and individuals will be paying a lot more for health insurance coverage in 2015 may be overblown.

Increasing competition among health insurers and strong economic conditions are expected to prevent significant increases in New York, as well as most other states, according to a report by the Urban Institute.

The report countered predictions that premiums would increase by double-digit percentages connected to the federal Affordable Care Act, or ACA, which is expanding health insurance and overhauling government regulations.

Most warnings about premium spikes stemmed from concerns that pricing was too low in 2014, as well as increases in health care costs and pressure to broaden networks, the Urban Institute analysts wrote.

"But the dominant force behind the surprisingly low premiums in 2014 remains intact -- the strong incentives for markets to be highly competitive, which forces insurers to set premiums aggressively to attain or retain market share," the analysts wrote.

Still, New York will likely remain among the worst states for businesses in terms of health insurance premiums next year, the report shows.

For small group plans offered at businesses with less than 50 employees, New York had an average premium of about $525 before the ACA. That was highest in an eight-state sampling for the report, which focused on a particular low-level plan.

Other average pre-ACA premiums ranged from about $430 in Oregon to $464 in Michigan, the second highest behind New York.

After the ACA, most states saw premiums decrease, though costs still varied depending on a range of factors, such as population and level plans, the report shows.

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