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$2 million worth of credibility (article on recent signing of Juan Duran)

SARASOTA, Fla. - When Bob Castellini signed a $2 million check with Juan Duran's name on it last week, he sent one of the strongest signals yet that the Reds are ready to do what it takes to return to competitiveness.

Duran is a 16-year-old hot-shot outfielder from the Dominican Republic. There's no guarantee that he'll play an inning in Great American Ball Park. But Castellini was willing to take the big risk to become a factor in Latin America.

"Just watch a game on TV and look at all the players from the Caribbean," Reds scouting director Chris Buckley said. "You've got to be a factor there."

The Duran signing shows the Reds are trying to open up the Latin connection again.

"I think it's a great step in that direction," said Walt Jocketty, a special adviser to Castellini. "It's one of the things Bob Castellini wants to do. This signing sends a pretty clear message that we're going to be aggressive in the market."

Castellini gets ripped occasionally for not throwing money at the Reds' problems. But this signing shows he has the foresight and checkbook to try to turn things around. It's a check neither Carl Lindner nor Marge Schott would write.

That's why you have only one Latin player in camp whom the Reds signed and developed with any shot of making the club. That's Johnny Cueto, he of the 97 mph fastball and drop-off-the-table changeup. Cueto might have the best stuff in camp. He was a bargain acquisition in 2004 - he signed for $3,500.

The Reds have trolled the bottom since they returned to scouting Latin America.

Signing Duran shows they are willing to pay the going rate for top players. That rate has climbed steadily in the last couple of years. A lot of clubs would like to see a worldwide draft to level the playing field.

Until that happens, teams have to try to compete. Top players in the Caribbean are controlled by a "buscone," a sort of agent/adviser.

"They're more than agents," assistant general manager Bob Miller said. "They sign up 13-, 14-year-old kids. They train them, house them, have their own fields."

The buscone, of course, wants a return on his investment.

"Unless you make a significant signing, the buscones won't even bring around the top kids," Buckley said. "This shows we're back in the game."

The Reds got a chance to sign Duran because Miller was able to interpret a rule in such a way to give the Reds a jump.

Most clubs thought Duran was not eligible to sign until July 2. It's complicated, but the Reds got around that by placing him on the Billings rookie-league roster. He won't play in Billings this year. He'll probably play in the Gulf Coast League.

"Bob Miller did a great job in understanding the rule," Jocketty said.

The rule since has been re-interpreted, Miller said, but the Reds' signing has been approved.

Castellini was not personally involved in the signing.

"They have a budget," Castellini said of his scouts. "They decide how to spend it."

The Duran signing is a risk. He's 6 feet 6, 190 pounds. His power rates 80 on the scouting scale of 20-80. He has good speed and an exceptional arm.

"He's very strong for a kid from the Dominican," Buckley said. "He'll get bigger. Most of the kids down there have never been in a weight room.

"But scouting in the Caribbean is more difficult. You can't go see Juan Duran play with his high school team or traveling team."

Buckley says Duran compares favorably with a No. 1 pick in the draft. It would be nice if he turns out to be another Jay Bruce.

But the bigger thing is the statement the signing makes. If the Reds can become a factor again in Latin America, the signing will be well worth the investment.

Re: $2 million worth of credibility (article on recent signing of Juan Duran)

Originally Posted by membengal

Sadly for Duran, he comes across as terse.

Happily for Duran, someone intervened to tell Fay that Duran wasn't being terse, he just doesn't speak English.

He did mess up when he said Duran would play in the GCL.

The point about the buscones is very relevant. I'll be a monkey's uncle if Juan Duran and his family will see every penny of that $2M. The buscone's going to get a healthy cut out of it. That's just the price of doing business down there if you wnt to be seen as a player for these kids.

Re: $2 million worth of credibility (article on recent signing of Juan Duran)

Here's another article on the kid for those who haven't heard much about him.

Reds Spend Big For 16-Year-Old Dominican

Many thought player wasn't eligible to sign

By Ben Badler
March 4, 2008
E-mail Print

Update: More On Juan Duran

The international signing period is still four months away, but the Reds have already made a big splash in the Dominican Republic, giving a $2 million signing bonus to 16-year-old outfielder Juan Duran, a player who many thought would not be eligible to sign until July 2.

"We've scouted him extensively," Reds scouting director Chris Buckley said. "We had not thought he was eligible until this coming July 2. But we found out he was eligible, and when we did we were able to react. (Assistant general manager) Bob Miller and (director of Latin American scouting) Tony Arias deserve the credit on this one, because Bob was going over guys we were preparing for this year's signing period, and he said, 'You can sign this guy right now.'

"We did not know that, but when we found that out, we were able to go get him because of the work Tony has done. He compares favorably to this year's high drafts."

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

Duran's birthday is Sept. 2, 1991, making him a 16-year-old who seemed to have barely missed the cutoff point to sign during last year's international signing period, and it appeared he would have to wait until the commencement of the 2008 period to sign. However, the rules state that for an international player to be eligible to sign, he must be 16 years old at the time of the signing and turn 17 years old by either Sept. 1 or by the end of his first professional season.

Players signed during the international signing period are not eligible to play that same year, so their first professional season comes the following calendar year. For example, a player signed during the 2007 international signing period would have his first professional season be the 2008 season.

The Reds realized that they could sign Duran if they assigned him to their 2008 roster in Billings in the Rookie-level Pioneer League, where the regular season ends on Sept. 5. Since Duran will turn 17 before the end of the 2008 Pioneer League season, he was eligible to sign before the 2008 international signing period and was eligible to sign back on his birthday last year.

One American League international scouting director said that he had Duran in for a workout as recently as last month.

"I think it caught everybody by surprise," he said. "Even his agents were promoting him as a July 2 guy. He really doesn't follow the July 2 cutoff for this year. I guess we all thought that, with the Sept. 1 cutoff in mind, we all figured he was eligible this year instead of last year."

Duran, who bats and throws righthanded and checks in at roughly 6-foot-6, 190 pounds, likely will not play a game this year in the PL, however, where at 16 years old he would be by far the youngest player in the league. The Reds cannot assign him to the Gulf Coast League, since the GCL season ends on Aug. 27, so sending him to the GCL would void his contract.

Buckley and Arias were both with the Blue Jays when the team drafted outfielder Alex Rios as an 18-year-old with the 19th overall pick in the 1999 draft.

"He compares favorably, only he's bigger and stronger at this age than Rios was," Buckley said. "He's more physical, and he has shown some of the same feel for hitting that Alex displayed.

"We don't have a second-round pick this year so we wanted to be creative and get more talent any way we can."

The $2 million bonus that Duran received was $500,000 more than the Red Sox gave to Dominican third baseman Michael Almanzar, who received the highest bonus of the 2007 international signing period. In 2006, the Giants gave Dominican first baseman Angel Villalona that year's top bonus at $2.1 million. It is the highest international bonus in Reds history, and tied for the third-largest signing bonus given to any player in club history.

Arias said that Duran was one of the Reds' top targets for July 2 before they realized within the last week that they could sign him.

"His body and offensive ability stick out like a sore thumb," Arias said. "In batting practice, he was just hitting them over the trees in our complex, hitting them out to center and right-center field. You can tell just tell from the way the ball jumps off his bat.

"I've never seen a 16-year-old with this type of ability. I talked to some people in the Dominican Republic who crossed paths with Vladimir Guerrero at that age, guys who have been scouting in the Dominican for more than 20 years, and they said they've never come into contact with a bat like this. He's got 80 power potential (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and just gets tremendous loft. In my opinion, in terms of his bat and his body, he's a better overall package than Angel Villalona. We wanted to change the perception in the baseball industry that Cincinnati is a cheap organization. We want to get back to being the Big Red Machine."

Another AL international scouting director said his team was also interested in Duran.

"We liked him," another AL international scouting director said. "We saw him as a corner outfielder, big, long-limbed, real bat potential. He's definitely a guy a lot of people liked."

One National League international scouting director compared Duran's body to that of a young Juan Gonzalez.

"He might end up being in center field because he's a plus runner. It's all going to come down to how big he gets and if he slows down," the scout said. "He's going to put on some weight, so whether he retains that speed will tell if he ends up at a corner.

"He's got some bat speed, and the power will come from the bat speed, but it all comes down to how thick he grows."

The same NL international scouting director also noted that Duran has been bothered by an elbow problem—which Arias said might have something to do with Duran having grown six inches in the past year—and that Duran only started throwing as far as 40 feet last month.

"He went to a tournament in Puerto Rico in the winter, and he didn't throw there. I saw him in February, and all he did was hit. I don't know what the up-to-date situation with his elbow is, but maybe they already checked him. Was he worth that kind of money? I guess he was to the Reds because they think he's an impact guy, but to me, I don't think so."
One AL international scouting director called him "one of those guys who don't come around very often."

"He's got all the tools," he said. "He's a pretty good player, very advanced for his age. I think it was a good investment. He's a good athlete, he has above-average power right now and he has a chance for 80 power (on the 20-80 scouting scale). He demonstrated every ability that you like to see in a kid. He's a very outgoing kid, good swing. There's no doubt about his approach, bat speed and power . . . he has all the common denominators you like to see, good balance, rhythm and a pretty good idea of what to do at the plate.

"If he has to go to a corner (outfield position), he certainly has the power to go there. But right now I'd give him every opportunity to play center field because he's light on his feet and has a good idea how to play out there. He's probably 6-foot-6, 195 pounds, somewhere in that area, so he could gain a whole 40 pounds with no problem. You look at this guy, and you hate to compare guys to major league players, especially at his age, but he could be a young Dave Winfield in the making."

Re: $2 million worth of credibility (article on recent signing of Juan Duran)

That's why you have only one Latin player in camp whom the Reds signed and developed with any shot of making the club. That's Johnny Cueto, he of the 97 mph fastball and drop-off-the-table changeup. Cueto might have the best stuff in camp. He was a bargain acquisition in 2004 - he signed for $3,500.

Re: $2 million worth of credibility (article on recent signing of Juan Duran)

Castellini is great. At least we finally have a real owner. And at least one of Cincinnati's professional sports teams has a real owner.

This Duran signing could be one of those things we look back on years from now as a huge moment for the franchise. Worst case, we're out $2 million (which isn't a lot in MLB, but is a lot for us). But I love the investment. 6-6 190 already? Wow.

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