Thursday 25 October 2012 17.54 EDT
First published on Thursday 25 October 2012 17.54 EDT

When in a hole, the first priority is to stop digging. The British economy has at last achieved that, and then gone one better by clambering its way out of the double dip which it fell into at the end of last year. Yesterday's zippy growth estimate – which showed GDP up by a full percentage point over the third quarter – is sufficient to make good all the damage done by the three quarters that came before. So far, so heartening. But before chilling the bubbly, it is as well to recall that the whole discourse takes place in a bigger trough, which we won't escape from soon. The great recession of 2008-09 knocked 6.4% off the economy, and the sum total of the growth we've since had – including yesterday's dollop – is 3.2%, which is to say that in four years that have passed since the great storm we have achieved nothing more than repairing half of the damage.

By any historical standard this is a miserable performance, and it will remain so unless the growth recorded yesterday is sustained quarter-in, quarter-out for a time to come. At the equivalent stage after the 1990-91 recession, things had long been humming along in exactly that mode, and growth over 1994 as a whole came in at 4.6%. That did not feel like a boom year – nor was it one. Any recession creates slack, in the form of idle people and plant; any ordinary recovery relies upon growth a bit faster than usual to start setting them to work. So 1994 was par for the post-recessionary course; it is 2012 that is the exception.

For yesterday's one decent quarter comes after three which have seen renewed shrinkage – and with at least the possibility of further faltering in the months ahead. One fifth of yesterday's 1% was down to an accounting decision that this was the quarter in which all those Olympic ticket sales would finally be scored; the great Games may have spurred a passing feelgood factor, and undoubtedly attracted visitors. Some part of yesterday's growth may thus unwind as the goldrush fades away. And, lest we forget, the euro crisis has not gone away, but continues to hang ominously in the sky ahead. Should this storm cloud break, any Olympian effect either way will be reduced to embellishment and detail.

Before turning to the political fallout, it is only fair to point out that a run-of-the-mill recovery should not be expected after a far from run-of-the-mill recession. All economic history suggests that a slump precipitated by the bursting of a debt-puffed bubble will be nastier and more enduring. Plodding like it's 1994 might not sound a lot to ask, but with the best chancellor in the world, the UK would be struggling to do that right now. The government therefore has its excuses, and it also has the surprising buoyancy of the labour market as one serious positive to point at. In its favour, too, is the failure of the opposition to settle on a ringingly clear economic tune, which it can hum through to the election. Shadow chancellor Ed Balls has made the Keynesian case through the double dip: it took courage to do so when this was a lonely stand. But his continuing lack of engagement with his leader's responsible capitalism agenda is a weakness that will be exposed if a recovery now takes hold. Emergency VAT cuts are a useful emergency expedient, but – if the emergency passes – Labour must have something else to offer to demonstrate what it would do differently.

All of this, perhaps, was running through the prime minister's mind during the cocky turn in the house on Wednesday in which he boasted the good news would keep coming. So, too, of course, were yesterday's figures, which he continues to enjoy unjustifiable privileged early access to. He now has the raw statistical material to allow him to slip into complacency, should he be foolish enough to do so.

But it would be a mistake. Wages remain on the floor, and tax credit cuts are redoubling the squeeze. The 99%, in other words, will not get much from yesterday's 1% any time soon. Even if more good news does indeed come, this is no time to reheat that winning Conservative formula from earlier times – telling the voters "you've never had it so good".