Is OVER undervalued?

Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final was a classic – the Los Angeles Kings erased a 2-0 deficit to defeat the New York Rangers 3-2 in overtime. The result has led to very similar odds for Game 2 on Saturday night at Staples Center in Los Angeles (7 p.m. ET, NBC).

In fact, as of Friday, you can find the exact odds that were available before Game 1 in some shops. The LVH SuperBook had the Rangers at +140 and the Kings at -150 for the opener, and that’s where the shop has both teams priced for Saturday. With the 10-cent line, those are some of the best prices available in Las Vegas.

Likewise, the total is five goals with the OVER +100 and the UNDER at -120, which is where it was for Game 1.

Given the results of the opener, that isn’t a huge surprise. The Rangers certainly hung with the Kings, but L.A. asserted itself in the third period, completely dominating play. New York lasted until overtime because of the strong play of Henrik Lundqvist. The game finished with exactly five goals. In other words, everything that was expected of the teams before the series played out in the first game.

That can work to bettors' advantage, according to the Linemakers on Sporting News’ Brian Blessing.

“Frankly, the fact they keep making the total in these games five, is absolutely beyond me,” said Blessing. “(Game 1) fell 3-2, but it was 2-2 in the second period with 1,000 chances. All you have to do is get it to 2-2 to have a free roll to go OVER the total, and the Kings are the highest-scoring team in the playoffs.”

But the Kings' victory in Game 1 did have one major effect on the odds – the series price has been adjusted.

“The series price, which I thought was low to begin with at (Kings) -180, is now up to about -280, -285, with the Rangers at +250,” Blessing said.

Once again, that makes sense given the Kings were favorites and won Game 1. But the Stanley Cup playoffs have shown series can change quickly, so Rangers backers may see an opportunity in that number.

Linemakers Lean: “This is a fast-paced, up-tempo (series) with quality scoring chances all over the place,” Blessing said. “Yes, Lundqvist is terrific, but the Kings solved him, and if you watched all their goals, they went high on the blocker side. I think the Kings have a little read on Lundqvist. (Jonathan) Quick made huge saves in Game 1, but he’s been shaky at times. To me, the absolute way to go, until they start putting up the total at 5.5, is OVER the total of 5.”

More Expert Analysis

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