Dark Snow Project: Crowd-Source Funded Science for Greenland

"There's no place on Earth that is changing faster--and no place where that change matters more--than Greenland." So said 350.org founder Bill McKibben, in a 2012 Rolling Stone magazine interview. As Earth Week 2013 draws to a close, I want to draw your attention to a unique effort to learn more about why Greenland is melting so fast--a crowd-funded research project that anyone can contribute to, which aims to answer the "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? The Dark Snow Project, the first-ever Greenland expedition relying on crowd-source funding, hopes to raise $150,000 to mount a field research campaign to find out. The project is the brainchild of Dr. Jason Box, Professor at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), and one of the world's leading experts on Greenland's glaciers. He has set up a website called darksnowproject.org to help raise the funds for the field campaign, and has raised about half of the needed amount as of mid-April.

Figure 1. Over the course of several years, turbulent water overflow from a large melt lake carved this 60-foot-deep (18.3 meter-deep) canyon in Greenland's Ice Sheet (note people near left edge for scale). Image credit: Ian Joughin, University of Washington.

2012: Unprecedented melting in GreenlandWatching the weather events of 2012 over Greenland made all seasoned climate watchers a little queasy. The vast ice sheet on the island holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and the ice melt season of 2012 gave notice that an epic melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet may be underway. According to NOAA's 2012 Arctic Report Card, the duration of melting at the surface of the ice sheet in summer 2012 was the longest since satellite observations began in 1979, and the total amount of summer melting was nearly double the previous record, set in 2010 (satellite records of melting go back to 1979.) A rare, near-ice sheet-wide surface melt event melted 97% of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet on July 11 - 12. While a similar melt event at the summit occurred 1889, but the 1889 event has no basis in the instrumental record from coastal Greenland. It's instead likely that 2012 was Greenland's warmest summer in at least 863 years, since the medieval warm period (see http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677 and http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=725). The incredibly warm temperatures have been blamed on highly unusual atmospheric circulation and jet stream changes, which were also responsible for 2012's unusually wet summer weather in England. It would not be a surprise if this sort of summer began occurring more often, since temperatures on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been rising six times faster than the global average during the past twenty years. A May 2013 Geophysical Research Letters paper by McGrath et al., "Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications", concluded that by 2025, there is a 50% chance of ice sheet-wide melt events happening annually. The ice sheet reached its darkest value on record in 2012. The darkened surface was due to below average summer snow, soot particles from pollution and forest fires, and record melting. A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet. The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown, which is why Dr. Box is determined to find out, via the Dark Snow Project.

Figure 2. Smoke from a fire in Labrador, Canada wafts over the Greenland ice sheet on June 17, 2012, as seen in this cross-section view of aerosol particles taken by NASA's CALIPSO satellite. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.

Greenland causing 25% of global sea level riseIn a landmark study published in November 2012 in Science, 47 researchers from 26 laboratories reported that the amount of ice being lost from Greenland and Antarctica has tripled since the 1990s, with Greenland contributing more than twice as much to global sea level rise than Antarctica. The study, "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance", found that the two ice sheets were responsible for 20% of the global sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year during the 20-year period 1992 - 2011. The remainder of the rise was due to expansion of the water due to heating of the oceans, melting of mountain glaciers, and unsustainable pumping of ground water. Said co-author Erik Ivins of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "The pace of ice loss from Greenland is extraordinary, with nearly a five-fold increase since the mid-1990s." As of 2011, Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise on its own had risen to 20 - 25%, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters on 1 June 2012. If the current exponential ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022, the researchers said. Many sea level rise researchers expect global sea level to rise by about 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2100. During the 20th century, global sea level rise was about 0.18 meters (7 inches.)

Figure 3. Monthly smoothed (purple) and unsmoothed (blue) values of the total mass lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet (in Gigatons, Gt) from measurements by the GRACE satellites between March 2002-September 2012. An approximate equivalent global sea level rise figure is on the right axis. Note that the decline in ice mass lost from Greenland is not a straight line--it is exponential, meaning that more ice loss is lost each year than in the previous year. Image credit: 2012 Arctic Report Card.

Will Antarctica be more important than Greenland for sea level rise?Although melting from Greenland is currently raising global sea level by about a factor of two more than Antarctica melting is, that situation may change later this century. A 2013 study by Dahl-Jensen et al. looked at a new ice core drilled from the bottom-most depths of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The core suggests that the ice in Greenland may have partially survived the warm Eemian period before the Ice Age, approximately 118,000 - 126,000 years ago, when Greenland temperatures were 5- 8°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Global sea level during the Eemian was 4 - 8 meters (13 - 26 ft) higher than the present sea level, and the scientists estimated that melting from Greenland was responsible for 2 meters (6.6 ft) of this sea level rise. This implies that Antarctica was responsible for 50 - 75% of global sea level rise during the Eemian, and thus we might expect Antarctica to take over as the dominant source of sea level rise later this century, when global temperatures may to rise to levels similar to those experienced during the Eemian.

Video 1. Glaciologist Dr. Jason Box and 350.org founder Bill McKibben plug the Darksnow project in this January 2013 video by Peter Sinclair. There's some impressive footage of the record Greenland snow melt of summer 2012 sweeping away a 20-ton tractor that was attempting to repair a bridge washed out by the raging Watson River on July 11, 2012 in Kangerlussauaq, Greenland. The driver escaped unharmed.

Support the Dark Snow ProjectOne of Dr. Box's collaborators, photographer James Balog, who created the amazing time-lapse Greenland glacier footage in the fantastic 2012 "Chasing Ice" movie, puts it like this: "Working in Greenland these past years has left me with a profound feeling of being in the middle of a decisive historic moment--the kind of moment, at least in geologic terms, that marks the grand tidal changes of history." On that note, I encourage you all to support the Dark Snow Project. Have a great weekend, everyone!

I have a weather question for those of you who delved deep into NWS records. Is it possible to determine if major hail events are happening more frequently or, given the ubiquitousness of cell phone cameras, just being reported/documented more frequently?

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:has anyone ever heard of the idea of using HRRR or other small scale model max updraft helicity to find potential tornado tracks 1-3hrs in advance?

Yes. Typically those storm-resolving models can do a decent job simulating the type of storms to expect and their evolution, but not very often do they get the locations right. But if storms in a particular area are simulated with high updraft helicity that would certainly be something I would keep in mind for getting a general idea of where tornadic storms would be most favorable.

Quoting Ameister12:Today marks the 2 year anniversary of the historic 2011 Super Outbreak. On that day over 200 tornadoes (including 16 EF3's, 11 EF4's, and 4 EF5's) caused massive destruction across Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia. 316 people lost their lives during the outbreak.

James Spann is sharing a lot of info from that outbreak on his FB and Twitter feeds.

Today marks the 2 year anniversary of the historic 2011 Super Outbreak. On that day over 200 tornadoes (including 16 EF3's, 11 EF4's, and 4 EF5's) caused massive destruction across Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia. 316 people lost their lives during the outbreak.

Quoting pottery:Look at the WV loops and the Rainbow loops.This weather has been coming up from the SW for the past week or so.Looks like we may get a little break later today, although the Met. Office does not think so. Some heavy showers possible.

Brace for more of the same, I think.....

Yup this is one persistent trough,just about 2 inches in my rain gauge in just over an hour,most fell in about 20 minutes in a downpour.

Quoting DDR:Pottery it looks to me like a flood event on the way,landslips and such.

Look at the WV loops and the Rainbow loops.This weather has been coming up from the SW for the past week or so.Looks like we may get a little break later today, although the Met. Office does not think so. Some heavy showers possible.

Good Morning All..69 degrees with 87%rh and winds at 8 from ENE..High dew point at 65..Chances of rain for the next 7days..Interesting that models are jumping around so much concerning the Low that is supposed to form..

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... EASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 753 AM CDT... 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THEPAST 3 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SOME ROADS IN THE CITYOF JACKSON ARE IMPASSABLE TO DUE FLOODING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BROWNSVILLE AND JACKSON.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WILL ALLOWFOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITHMARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPMENT WILLBE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHMONDAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE LOWER AMOUNTS SHOULDEXTEND SOUTHWARD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FORFUTURE UPDATES AS ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE.

WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND THE SHORTWAVEWILL NO LONGER BE AN INFLUENCING FACTOR...LINGERING MOISTURE ANDINSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OFTHUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THENORTHWEST...MAINLY BETWEEN 5 PM AND 2 AM...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEMAPPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONGAND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE TO JASPER. THE MAIN THREATSWILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE AREMANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THESYSTEM...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

Storm force winds and huge seas are battering Tasmania, although the worst is yet to come.

At 7:20am this morning the Cape Sorell waverider buoy registered a maximum wave height of 10.5 metres(34.45ft). All recordings so far today have been above 6.9 metres(22.64ft) and maximum wave heights have remained above 5.5m(18.04ft) since Thursday morning.

Wind gusts of 131 km/h(81.4mph) at Maatsuyker Island, 128 km/h(79.5mph) at Scotts Peak and 109 km/h(67.7mph) on Mt Read have already been recorded today.

Winds averaging around 70 km/h(43.5mph) with peak gusts of up to 130 km/h(80.7mph) are forecast for parts of the Western and South East districts this evening. Gusts may be even stronger at higher elevations.

An intense westerly flow and strong cold front are the cause of these storm force winds and giant waves.

Northwesterly winds will be strongest this afternoon as the front approaches. The cold front will cross Tasmania this evening causing showers to spread across the state.

Seas are likely to be even higher tomorrow behind the front and remain large for western and southern parts of TAS until the end of this week. Winds are likely to ease from Sunday night as the front moves away from the region.

Chasing Ice was on TV last night.. awesome movie, I would love to see it in a theater. I watched it twice, recording it the second time. I HIGHLY recommend it. It doesn't matter whether you believe in AGW, the photography is spectacular beyond words. We have never "seen" some of these dramatic changes as they happened.. totally awesome.