Transcription

1 P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 25, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell Trump Continues to Lead Big in Michigan (Trump 41% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 16% - Kasich 11%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- As the number of undecided voters (5%) continues to drop, Donald Trump continues to lead with the same percentage of the vote (41%) he has had for the past two weeks. However, Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (19%) almost doubled his share of the vote and Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (16%) also moved up this week while Ohio Governor John Kasich (11%) and Dr. Ben Carson (7%) stayed where they were a week ago in the latest Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Michigan Poll conducted Tuesday night before results of the Nevada Caucuses were known. The IVR (Interactive Voice Response) automated survey of 459 likely March 8, 2016 Michigan Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on February 23, 2016 and has a Margin of Error of + or 4.57% at the 95% level of confidence. Trump s percentage remains solid at 41%, while Rubio has moved back into second place in Michigan at 19%, still trailing by 22%. Cruz is close behind Rubio with 16% while Kasich still has not increased his share of the vote. Trump remains the real beneficiary of this three-way fight for second in Michigan. The longer the field is muddled up with three viable alternatives to Trump, the stronger Trump looks. These data are almost identical to the positions of the top three candidates two weeks ago, Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said. Most importantly, looking at the second choices of the various candidates, if everyone dropped out except Rubio and Trump, creating a two-way race, Trump would still win Michigan. The same is true if it was a two-way race between Cruz and Trump, Mitchell said. Before a more thorough breakout by demographics, there was some key information in the poll: Trump continues to be much stronger with men (47%) than women (35%), almost identical to last week.

2 Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Republicans Page 2 of 3 Seventy-one percent of Trump voters strongly agree that they are mad as hell and they won t take it anymore. Supporters of none of the other candidates reach more than 50% strong agreement on that statement except for Cruz supporters (51%). Clearly, the angry voters support these two candidates. Voters are solidifying behind their candidates. Trump (83%) and Cruz (73%) are also the two candidates whose supporters say they will definitely vote for them. Almost threefourths of Carson s voters (73%) and 61% of Rubio s voters are definitely voting for them. We asked voters if they would identify themselves as Evangelical Christians to see who is winning with that demographic group in Michigan. Trump (37%) leads both Cruz (22%) and Rubio (19%) with that group. We also wanted to see if the disagreement Trump had with Pope Francis would impact Trump s support with Roman Catholics and found that it clearly did not. Trump (45%) leads Rubio (23%) and Cruz (15%) with Catholics. Trump (49%) is strongest with nonchurch goers and weakest with Protestants (35% of the vote). The following data show the race between Trump, Rubio, Cruz and Kasich: By age: Trump (25%) and Cruz (25%) are tied for first with voters 18 to 39 years old, followed by Carson (22%), Rubio (14%), and Kasich (8%). Trump leads 41%-22%-12%-10% over Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich with voters 40 to 49 years old. Trump leads 38%-22%-19%-10% over Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich, with voters 50 to 59 years old. Trump leads 46%-19%-13%-11% over Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich with voters who are 60 to 69 years old. Trump leads among those 70 and older 44%-18%-15%-10% followed by Rubio, Kasich, and Cruz. By gender: Trump leads with men 47%-16%-15%-11% over Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich. Trump (35%) leads Rubio (23%), Cruz (16%), and Kasich (12%) with women. By area: In Wayne County outside Detroit, Trump (48%) leads Cruz (17%), Rubio (13%), Kasich (10%), and Carson (7%). In Oakland, Trump leads 35%-27%-23%-9%-2% over Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Carson. In Macomb, Trump (50%) leads followed by Kasich (16%), with Rubio (11%) and Cruz (11%) tied for third, followed by Carson (3%). In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, Trump leads 46%-20%-17%- 11% over Kasich, Rubio, and Cruz. In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Trump leads with 43%, with Kasich and Rubio tied for second with 14%, followed by Carson (11%) and Cruz (10%). In West Michigan, Trump (29%) and Rubio (29%) are tied for the lead, followed by Cruz (18%), Carson (10%), and Kasich (8%). In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Trump leads 48%-16%-13%-9% over Rubio, Cruz, and Carson.

3 Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Republicans Page 3 of 3 Trump continues to dominate in Michigan. The idea that a two-way race would lead to Trump losing in Michigan is wrong. Looking at second choices, even if it came down to a two-way race, Trump would still win Michigan, Mitchell concluded. Methodology: Mitchell Research & Communications used a sample of likely voters in the November 2016 Michigan General Elections. Our goal is to spread as wide a net as possible to assure we survey voters who may not have voted in primary elections before. A quadruple filter was used to determine that we were surveying only likely Republican Party Primary voters. First voters had to say they were registered voters. If they were not, the phone call ended. Then, they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, or definitely not voting in the November General Election. If they were definitely not voting the phone call ended. Then they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, definitely not voting, or if they had already voted by absentee ballot in the March 8 th Presidential Primary. If they were definitely not voting the call ended. Finally, they were informed that they could only vote in on party s primary, not in both. They were asked if they were voting in the Democratic Party Primary, the Republican Party Primary, or if they were not sure. If respondents said Democratic or not sure the call ended, so we were only polling those who said they were voting in the Republican Party Primary Election. We asked Mark Grebner of Practical Political Consulting, the top list vendor in Michigan, and the person that supplied us with our sample, to give us his estimate on voter turnout by age, gender, and race. We compared final results to determine if the data needed to be weighed to reflect the demographics of the likely voters. In this poll, results were close enough to the estimates so we did not put any weights on the data. Federal law only permits us to call land lines. Because likely Primary voters are older, almost six-in-ten (59%) are 60 or older and eight-in-ten (81%) are older than 50, there are sufficient land line voters to get an accurate sample. We do not have to make any assumptions of likely voter turnout. (In 2012, our final survey in the Michigan Republican Party Presidential Primary had Romney winning by 1.4%, he won by 3.2%. We were off by only 1.8% from the winning margin.) (The survey must be referred to as a Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll) -30-

4 Survey of the State of Michigan Likely March 2016 GOP Primary Election Voters Conducted January 25 February 4 February 15 February 23, 2016 (N=493) (N=330) (N= 394) (N=453) Hi, we re conducting a survey of Michigan voters for TV and radio stations on the Presidential Race and other issues. 1. If you are a registered voter at the household we are calling please press 1. If you re not, press 2. Yes 100% No 0 2. Thinking about the November 2016 General Election for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely voting 99% Probably Voting 1 Not Sure Yet 0 3. Thinking about the upcoming March 8 Presidential Primary race for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely voting 96% Probably Voting 2 Not Sure Yet 1 Already Voted 1 4. In a Presidential Primary you can only vote for candidates in one political party. Next month, will you be voting in the Democratic Party Presidential Primary, the Republican Party Presidential Primary, or are you not sure? Republican Primary 100% Democratic Primary 0 Not Sure 0 Before presidential and other questions, five quick questions for statistical purposes: 5. What is your age? If you are: press 21% press press or older press 21

5 6. If you are a male press 1 or a female press 2. Male 52% Female If you are white/caucasian press 1, African-American press 2, Hispanic press 3, Asian or something else press 4. White 94% Other 6 8. If you are a: Democrat or lean Democrat press 3% Republican or lean Republican press 85 Another party press 0 Or, Independent press What area do you live in? If you live in the: Wayne County 12% Oakland County 14 Macomb County 8 Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Thumb 12 Monroe/Washtenaw/Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan 16 West Michigan 22 Northern Michigan/U.P Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement: I m mad as hell and I won t take it anymore! If you 1/25/16 2/4/16 2/15/16 2/23/16 Strongly agree 55% 38% 47% 50% Somewhat agree % 57% 74% 84% Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree % 13% 11% 17% DK/Refused If the Republican Party Primary was being held today which candidate would you be voting for? I list the top six candidates in alphabetical order. If you would NOT be voting in the Republican Primary press 1, if you would be voting for Jeb Bush press 2, Ben Carson press 3, Ted Cruz press 4, John Kasich press 5, Marco Rubio press 6, Donald Trump Press 7, if you are not sure press 8. [Note: On 1/25 and 2/4 top six candidates in national polls chosen so Christie included and not Kasich] GOP 1/25/16 GOP 2/4/16 GOP 2/15/16 GOP 2/23/16 Bush 5% 2% 5% -- Carson % Christie Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump Other Undecided

CRUZ & KASICH RUN STRONGER AGAINST CLINTON THAN TRUMP TRUMP GOP CANDIDACY COULD FLIP MISSISSIPPI FROM RED TO BLUE If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination, Mississippi and its six electoral

Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center Interviews with 914 adults in New Hampshire conducted by land line and cellular telephone on January 27-30, 2016 including 409 who say they plan

Public Affairs & Corporate Communications THE AP-GfK POLL September, 2016 Conducted by GfK Public Affairs & Corporate Communications A survey of the American general population (ages 18+) Interview dates:

Public Affairs & Corporate Communications THE AP-GfK POLL October, 2014 Conducted by GfK Public Affairs & Corporate Communications A survey of the American general population (ages 18+) Interview dates:

Cambridge Analytica offers a range of enhanced audience segments drawn from our national database of over 220 million Americans. These segments can be used individually or together to power highly targeted

Marquette Law School Poll February 18-21, 2016 Results for Registered Voters (ages are rounded to whole numbers for reporting of results. Values ending in.5 here may round up or down if they are slightly

Legislative District 2 poll 1 Stockton Polling Institute Sept. 23-28, 2017 Weighted frequencies Q1. Voters in your legislative district will be electing a state senator and two members of the state Assembly

October 11, 2016 Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist Department of Public Relations (904) 620-2192 University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab www.unf.edu/coas/porl/ Methodology Results

Tulane University Post-Election Survey November 8-18, 2016 Executive Summary The Department of Political Science, in association with Lucid, conducted a statewide opt-in Internet poll to learn about decisions

The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities Report on new survey of Republicans February 2016 Methodology National Web-Survey of 800 Likely 2016 Republican Voters. This survey took place February 11-16, 2016.

Marquette Law School Poll September 15-18, 2016 (Percentages are rounded to whole numbers for reporting of results. Values ending in.5 here may round up or down if they are slightly above.5 or slightly

NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE JULY 07, 2016 FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Bridget Johnson,

JULY 31, 2013 Ryan Has Broader Appeal in GOP than Paul, Rubio or Christie Whither the GOP? Republicans Want Change, But Split Over Party s Direction FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER

An in-depth examination of North Carolina voter attitudes in important current issues Registered Voters in North Carolina January 21-25, 2018 Table of Contents Key Survey Insights... 3 Satisfaction with

New Jersey Statewide 2016 Weighted Frequencies Stockton Polling Institute Sept. 22-29, 2016 Q1. If the election for president were held today, would you vote for: Valid Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 282

December 1, PRRI/The Atlantic Post- election White Working Class Survey Total = 1,162 (540 Landline, 622 Cell phone) November 9 20, Thinking about the presidential election this year Q.1 A lot of people

Asian American Survey Findings from a Survey of 700 Asian American Voters nationwide plus 100 each in FL, IL, NV, and VA Celinda Lake, David Mermin, and Shilpa Grover Lake Research Partners Washington,

The Polling Center: The Institute of Government Jackson State University Internal 2016 Presidential Poll Captures Interest, Participation, and Hope Jackson State University s Institute of Government administered

Understanding Oklahoma Voters A Compilation of Studies Conducted Summer 2016 by How Many Donate?.05% 1%.25% Gave $2600+ Gave $200 - $2,600 Gave Anything No Donation 98.7% Very few people engage in elections

FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION FOUNDED IN 1945 BY MERVIN FIELD 61 California Street San Francisco, California 9418 415-392-5763 Tabulations From a Field Poll Survey of Californians Likely to Vote in the June

Multiple Choice 1. Which of the following is a new restrictive law implemented by Arizona? a. Voters must be twenty-one years of age to be eligible to vote. b. Voters must first obtain a driving license

UNIT THREE POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION PUBLIC OPINION PUBLIC OPINION, THE SPECTRUM, & ISSUE TYPES ITEM PUBLIC OPINION IDEOLOGY THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM (LIBERAL- CONSERVATIVE SPECTRUM)

Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute Poll Backlash Gives Franken Slight Edge, Coleman Lifted by Centrism and Faith Vote Report prepared by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance

PUBLIC OPINION , THE SPECTRUM, & ISSUE TYPES IDEOLOGY THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM (LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE SPECTRUM) VALENCE ISSUES WEDGE ISSUE SALIENCY What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of

OCTOBER 16, 2013 Tea Party s Image Turns More Negative Ted Cruz s Popularity Soars among Tea Party Republicans FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS Michael

PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS CAMPAIGN CONSULTANTS SURVEY FINAL TOPLINE November 1997 March 1998 N=200 INTRODUCTION: Hello, I am, calling for Princeton Survey Research Associates on behalf

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday, July 14 th, 2016 7:00 am EDT Heading into the Conventions: A Tied Race July 8-12, 2016 The race for President is all tied up. Hillary Clinton led Donald

Opinion Research Strategic Communication 2016 Survey of Catholic Likely Voters Conducted for Catholics for Choice A new national survey indicates that Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a slim lead among Catholic

October 18, 2017 Voters low view of Trump lifts ocratic candidates in governor s races in both New Jersey and Virginia Summary of Key Findings 1. In twin polls in New Jersey and Virginia, a significant

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 10, 2012 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF

1. Thinking ahead to the November 2016 election, what would you say the chances are that you will vote in the election for U.S. President, Congress and other state offices - are you almost certain to vote,

To understand the U.S. electoral college and, more generally, American democracy, it is critical to understand that when voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 8th, they are not voting together in

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,