Friday, February 10, 2006

Poll Position in Senate District 14

[Post delayed due to network problems]

Even before campaign finance improprieties threatened to derail his path to a second term, Hank Erwin was not in a particularly strong political position. Multiple conservative-leaning interest groups have made efforts to lure a high profile opponent to take on the controversial Erwin. In fact ALFA even commissioned a poll in November to gauge Erwin's vulnerability and lure challengers into the race. The poll tested head-to-head matchups pitting Erwin against potential GOP challengers Ex State Sen Bill Armistead, State Reps Mike Hill and Cam Ward, and Shelby County Commissioner Jon Parker.

Now the good news for Erwin is that Armistead, Hill, and Ward are not expected to run. But with Erwin seemingly stuck at 36% in a two-man race, his political fortunes don't appear especially bright either. With Shelby County Commissioner Jon Parker and political consultant George Oldroyd already opposing Erwin (and with the possibility of an expanding field should the campaign finance flap continue to grow), Hank Erwin looks to have an uphill path to a second term.

With only a handful of incumbents facing strong challengers, Hank Erwin's re-election bid is shaping up to be one of the more compelling primary races and Erwin one of the most vulnerable incumbents.

Please, we get your point. We get it. We get it. Tie him to a stake and burn him brittle. Spit on his corpse. Get drunk and urinate on his grave. But, please, stop this obsessive post about this contribution, at least in blog subjects about something, or someone, else. You waste all of our time.

hank erwin and ron sparks should have a 'stupid-off' rasslin match in ensley. of course there would be no winner. but, hank would buy all the tickets and give em away to his sponsors and sparky would take payoffs in excess of the face value of the ticket.

Parker doesn't poll any better than Erwin because he just got elected to the county commission in '04. He's been in office all of a year, and now he's ready to kick himself upstairs.

If he'd ever done anything worth talking about in politics, he might poll higher than a national laughingstock like Erwin. Being neck and neck with Erwin is a pretty bad sign. It says you're a lightweight.

This race sounds all messed up for Erwin. It sounds like with the decent candidates who can win sitting out the race all that is left is a lightweight (Parker) or a nut (Oldroyd). Erwin might could still win because the more serious candidates with strong poll numbers are opting to do something else.

But he might be right that the raising of the allegationsis politically motivated, even if the allegations are true.

Take this case in point. Our current Secretary of State has apparently violated the campaign finance law herself but I have not seen anyone criticize her in the press or threaten to file an ethics complaint against her - or even ask her to just straighten out her records so we'll know if she's used campaign money for personal expenses.

Well I would call a candidate like Oldroyd who has NEVER had a real job, who only hangs out on the fringes, and throws dirt at other people for a living a nut!! No, not just a nut but a certified nut Mr. Oldroyd. The only person who would ever promote you as a candidate is you. Oh you will say all the right "conservative" things, but there are a lot of conservative candidates out there. What makes you think people can get past your nutty personality and elect you??

Something interesting that another person posted. It is strange that these attacks on Erwin on just now coming up. I mean he made most of these expenditures three years ago and reported them then as well. While I believe he is wrong it is funny how these things only come up when someone is looking to start campaigning against him.

Oldroyd's a conservative, and if he's so nutty, what are you afraid of? Sounds like you're a little desperate to damage the guy.

And you'd have to know the guy personally to be able to say that a guy who "hangs out on the fringes" has "never held a real job." If he's so obscure, how come you know so much about him? Only an insider could know a guy who hangs out on the fringes, which means your attack is personal, and no one takes that seriously.

I'm guessing that you don't like the crowd on the "fringes," but those "nuts" are the only ones who will stand up for lower taxes. You like paying taxes?

George is a friend of mine. He's an activist, so it's easy to say that he's on the "fringes" because most people don't bother to get involved, but he's the least nutty person I know. No one in the anti-tax scene is a more rational analyst that George, and he does a really good job framing the message. No wonder you're so despreate to bash him.

He has a job: he's a self-employed businessman who works to get conservatives elected, an dit obviously pisses you off to no end that he's good at it. But if that's not "real" enough, he spent five years owning hs own alarm business, which is a pretty "real" job. He went to graduate school to study public administration for a while, which is a pretty "real" job.

And he's working for a half dozen conservative candidates around the state trying to get the right people elected, which thanks to RINO halfwits like you, is a very real, very hard job.

He'll "say all the conservative things" because he means them, and will walk the walk to amke them happen, unlike other so-called conservatives who talk a good game about conservative values and then stab the voters in the back.

Example: when Hank Erwin conveniently forgot his promise to oppose sales and property tax increases and saddled us with referendums on both, George went out, did the homework, and campaigned against them with a lot of other conservatives around Shelby County.

And nut that he is, 75-80% of the voters agreed with him. Pretty big fringes, huh?

Know any other big name Republicans who have actually done anyting to fight tax increases around here? Maybe big names aren't what we need.

Maybe you're playing a little "politics of personal destruction," but you're playing a losing game. If not, take a deep breath. If people think Oldroyd is such a nut, then they'll know it when they meet him, and vote for somebody else.

But if you think you're going to convince anyone of anything by being a raging lunatic, maybe you should have a look at how well that worked out for Hank Erwin last fall and try a new approach.

Conservatives love being called nuts. It just galvanizies ideological voters, so keep it up.

This stuff is just coming up now because now is when opponents start doing their opposition research. And no one went shopping for a candidate to take on Erwin until last fall when he went crazy on TV and became so totally embarassing that people felt like they had to do something about it.

Don't dream that they didn't start looking for dirt on him back then. The election's are coming, so this is when people start paying attention, but half of Montgomery has known about Erwin's money problems for ages.

I just called and asked him. He confirms that he took grad courses in the public administration program at UAB, including some public policy courses and one jutsice sciences course concerning domestic terrorism. He has a Bachelor of Science in Political Science from Sacred Heart University.

More smear campaign, I take it. Interesting how scared people are of this so-called "nut."

Check again. Any other stupid comments you'd like to make? Any other crooked politicians you'd like to stand up for?

Any more anonymous mud-slinging? Because we can start talking about your client's ethical problems and educational credentials again, and make him a little more famous just when you're hoping the case will go away. That'll be good for business...

As far as the fact goes that Parker is only "neck-n-neck" with Erwin in this pole, one must remember one other fact. When this poll was conducted, about three people knew that Parker was planning on running for Senate! So I think 38% of the poll in those circumstances is remarkable. Wait until the campaign actually kicks off!

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