2019 Wells Fargo Championship DFS Preview

The Tour was in
action last week as Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer won the Zurich team event in New
Orleans. However, unless you played in the Euro contests, it was a week off for
DFS golfers that offered us a short break before we get rolling into another
busy portion of the schedule that kicks off this week with the Wells Fargo
Championship held at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Quail Hollow Club: Par 71, 7,554 yards. Quail Hollow is one of the
longest layouts on the PGA Tour, especially for a par 71, coming in at 7,554
yards. The course did undergo a recent redesign in preparation for the 2017 PGA
Championship that did add some distance and teeth to the layout. Fairways are
more difficult than average to hit, however, tree cover is not overly dense and
the rough is typically left at an average or shorter length so there is some
room to off the tee if your misses are slight. The greens at Quail Hollow are
Bermuda and are about 5% more difficult to hit than the PGA Tour average. Scoring
wise this is one or the more difficult tests on the Tour with an average
winning score of around 12 under par. Most of the holes will play to an over
par average with the exception of the three par fives and two very short par fours.
Players will need to position themselves well off the tee to take advantage of these
limited scoring opportunities. Also, players must swing their long irons with
confidence as average approach shot distributions skews heavily to the over 200
yard range but any shortfall in precision from that distance can be made up for
with a strong around the green game. Quail Hollow’s most famous stretch of
holes is it’s finishing three, known as the “Green Mile”, and comprised of the
508 yard par four 16th, 221 yard par three 17th, and the
493 yard 18th hole. Water is prominently in play on the final three
so players must also stay dry if they wish to avoid any big numbers coming down
the stretch.

In terms of
stats, strokes gained off the tee will be my most heavily weighted stat for
several reasons. The distance and difficulty of the course cause scoring
opportunities to cluster into the three par fives and two par fours that are
borderline drivable at 325-350 yards. Those who can get it out there off the
tee are at a huge advantage on the only holes that present true birdie/eagle
opportunities. In addition, pars are easier to come by on long par fours when
you are hitting shorter irons into the greens. One other factor will be
important this week is strokes gained around the green. Typically, this is not
a huge part of the winning formula on the PGA Tour, but this week this stat
will likely highly correlate with birdie conversions on the par fives and short
par fours as those who position themselves well off the tee (as well as on
approach to the par fives) will need to get up and down to secure their birdie.

Here are our top
stats to consider this week:

Strokes Gained Off the Tee

Par Five Efficiency

Strokes Gained Approach

Scrambling

Par Four Efficiency (450-500 yards)

The major
championship style layout typically draws one of the stronger fields of the
year but we are seeing fewer of the big names than we’ve seen in recent years,
likely due to the new condensed schedule leaving only four weeks between the
Masters and the PGA Championship at Bethpage. Most notable is Tiger Woods, who
typically tees it up at Quail Hollow when healthy, opting for an additional
week rest as he prepares for the season’s second major. However, there will
still be plenty of star power this week as Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Rickie
Fowler, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, and Phil Mickelson headline the event
along with local favorite and Quail Hollow member, Webb Simpson. Here are three
targets for your cash game / single entry tournament (GPP) lineups on DraftKings:

Upper
Mid-Range – Tony Finau – $9,300

Tony Finau was a
mainstay in most of my lineups throughout 2018 and early this year but due to
his rising price across the industry and a very slight dip in form I’ve been
off him over the past few tournaments. Both those concerns have been alleviated
in my mind as a 5th place finish at the Masters and a four figure
price tag will put him back into my core lineup this week. It also helps that
Quail Hollow is one of the longest tracks on the PGA that will allow Tony to
take full advantage of his distance off the tee and he has come away with top
30 finishes in each of his three trips to Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo
Championship.

Upper
Mid-Range – Gary Woodland – $9,000

If using the
balanced approach to lineup construction, Gary Woodland is a great option to
add alongside Tony Finau and still leave yourself enough salary for an
additional spend in this range. Woodland gains most of his strokes off the tee
and has an iron game, while subject to the occasional blip, can be elite at
times that puts himself in position to provide the upside we are looking to
capture in DFS. His course history at Quail Hollow has been outstanding save
last year when the timing of the Wells Fargo coincided with an extended period
of poor form coming off his victory at the Waste Management. He finished 24th
in 2016, 4th in 2015, 18th in 2014, and 22nd
at the PGA Championship in 2017. He gained 17.2 strokes on approaches combined
of the above-mentioned events proving that, when in form, the course suits his
eye and there will be plenty of scoring opportunities.

Mid-Range
– Byeong Hun An – $8,300

Ben An missed the
cut last out at the RBC Heritage losing an uncharacteristic 8 strokes off the
tee. However, four of those strokes came on one hole Friday afternoon as he hit
two balls OB while trying to battle back and make the cut. The tight layout at
Harbour Tour was not the best fit for him so I’m willing to overlook the missed
cut in favor of long term stats and his course history at Quail Hollow. He is
ranked 5th in the field over the last 24 rounds in stokes gained off
the tee, 11th in strokes gained approach, and 1st in
strokes gained around the green. He finished 28th at the 2017 PGA
Championship to show that he can maneuver his way around this course. My only
concern with An is the putter but Bermuda is his preferred surface so any sort
of regression here would go a long way in ensuring a strong finish this week.