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So, like countless other pitchers, Jake has problems with concentration, finishing off batters, and his control. But he's got a lot of talent. The 'old' O's braintrust might have been better served keeping him in the minors longer. But the 'new' management team seems to know what they are doing - so exactly what's the point of this column, other than to write one?

As for expectations, those are fine, and Jake's known to be a hard worker, intense, good guy. But using the word 'indictment' seems to be putting more blame on the organization than the guy who can't get the job done to this point.

For some reason Arrieta throws five different pitches. Two them are pretty terrible (the cutter and curveball I think). I just don't understand why the orioles haven't forced him to focus on three pitches to simplify things.

OTOH, I don't know if he'd be an effective starter even then. I think it's pretty obvious that he should be a reliever. He's like a 1000 other guys who have great stuff but not the mound presence, command, focus, etc. to be a starter, but who can excel over 1-2 innings.

I know that pitcher attrition is a problem for every organization, but the Orioles do have a staggering record of turning can’t miss prospects into marginal middle relievers (or worse) in the span of a couple years. Here’s the list of Orioles pitching prospects ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America from 1999 to 2011:

I doubt their track record is much worse than the average MLB team. Bedard and Maine were productive ML starters; Tillman was very good last year and seems to be coming around; Matusz and Patton are very good relievers, and Matusz should get another chance to start IMO; and Erbe, Beato, Bautista, and Liz were never anything special. The problem is that there are probably a bunch of teams that had a lot more pitchers in the top 100 during that period.

Then back in 1998 there was Ryan Brannan, who I have no memory of ever existing.

This seems to be a better record than the Orioles. Trading away Carrasco and Buchholz, good idea. Trading away Floyd and Gonzalez, bad idea. Cosart, well, he's been great in Oklahoma City this year, but there's no replacing all the catchphrases Hunter Pence brought to the Phils.

The problem is that there are probably a bunch of teams that had a lot more pitchers in the top 100 during that period.

I think the Orioles were at least above average for the number of pitchers on that list in that time period.

That’s 12 years x 100 slots so 40 slots on average per team. And those lists are 55/45 hitter/pitchers, so the average had ~18 names on that list over the 12 year period. The 14 Orioles I listed above appeared a total of 21 times.

Bedard and Maine had their moments, but they both appear to be done. Even if I cherry pick their peaks, from the period to 2004 through 2009, Bedard and Maine ranked 38th and 159th in the league in pitcher WAR. That’s a pretty pathetic return for over a decade of pitcher development.

But most prospects, even those in the top 100, do very little. A few seasons of average to above average performance as a starter is a pretty good result.

Regardless, there's no question that the orioles did a lousy job of drafting and developing MLB talent from 1999-2011. And there's probably some merit to the idea that many of these guys were rushed because there was nothing at the ML level (Hayden Penn is probably the poster boy for this). Hopefully the new regime will do a better job.