Japan to Become Largest Solar Market After China, BNEF Says

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Japan will probably become the
largest solar market in the world after China this year, boosted
by an incentive program that offers above-market rates for
energy from renewable sources.

Commercial and utility-scale projects will boost solar
installations to a range of 6.1 gigawatts to 9.4 gigawatts in
2013, exceeding an earlier forecast of 3.2 gigawatts to 4
gigawatts, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in a research note.

“The upward revision was done because of the rapid
increase in shipments seen last quarter as well as the fact that
the pipeline of projects is even stronger than previously
expected,” BNEF said in a report released March 29.

The forecast reflects the push by Japan to find alternative
sources of energy following the Fukushima earthquake and tsunami
in March 2011, which prompted the closure of all but two of the
nation’s nuclear reactors. Japan in July began offering
incentives through feed-in tariffs to encourage investments in
energy sources such as wind and solar.

Solar Plans

Lawson Inc., a Japanese operator of convenience stores,
installed solar panels on rooftops of 1,000 shops by the end of
February and plans to set up systems for another 1,000 outlets,
Yuuki Takemoto, a company spokesman, said today by phone. The
company uses panels by Solar Frontier K.K. and Panasonic Corp.

Lawson sells electricity generated from solar panels to
utilities and plans to use the income for energy saving
equipment, the spokesman said.

Other companies that stand to benefit include Kyocera
Corp., Sharp Corp. and Suntech Power Japan Corp., all of which
make and sell solar panels for residential and industrial use.

“The feed-in tariff has been successful in sparking
interest and potential for unprecedented growth in solar,”
Travis Woodward, a Tokyo-based solar analyst at BNEF, said in an
e-mailed message. “This large introduction of solar is
significant enough to compliment other strategies to alleviate
power demand issues from idling almost all nuclear plants in
Japan. Solar system prices will need to come down closer to
global average, however, to make a sustainable market.”

Market Drivers

The commercial segment -- projects of 10 kilowatts to 1,000
kilowatts on industrial rooftops and on idled land -- is
primarily behind the increase in the forecast, according to
London-based BNEF.

The revision puts Japan ahead of the U.S. and possibly
ahead of China, BNEF said. China is estimated to add 6.2
gigawatts to 10.5 gigawatts while additions in the U.S. may
total 3.3 gigawatts to 3.9 gigawatts.

The most installations in any one year was in Italy in 2011
when that country added 7.9 gigawatts, according to BNEF.

Potential barriers include system costs in Japan that
remain high by international standards and a lack of trained
workers to install systems, BNEF said.

Japan’s domestic shipments of solar cells and modules more
than doubled to 1,003 megawatts in the three months to Dec. 31
compared with the same quarter the previous year, the Japan
Photovoltaic Energy Association said Feb. 26.