Panama`s Fate To Be Decided In Next Few Days

March 15, 1988|By DAVID L. MARCUS, Dallas Morning News

PANAMA CITY, Panama -- This week is ``make or break`` time for Panamanians trying to force Gen. Manuel Antonio Noriega to relinquish his hold on the country, according to diplomats, economists and politicians.

The coming days, they say, are likely to bring more outbreaks of violence, continued unrest over the deteriorating economy and political upheaval.

``This place is like an inferno; it can`t go on,`` a retired army officer said.

Although feelings against Noriega run higher by the day and the Panama Defense Forces are growing increasingly restless, the regime`s critics predict that it will be the tattered economy -- which was a model for Latin America just a few years ago -- that will push the nation into chaos and force the general to flee.

``The economy is on hold. The situation is very critical,`` opposition leader Aurelio Barria said.

``I think the future of Panama is going to be decided in the next few days.``

Although private banks reportedly have received shipments of currency, the government-owned National Bank of Panama is said to have been drained of reserves.

The United States is adding to the pressure with economic sanctions.

Dozens of companies are paying employees in scrip valid at supermarkets, and while the measure will satisfy the immediate need for food, it does not inspire optimism about the future of the banking system.

In addition, some Panamanians say that riot police and paramilitary forces are growing tense and abusive.

``It`s them against the world,`` said opposition leader Worland de Janon. Earlier this month, paramilitary guards detained de Janon, ridiculing him by shaving off his right eyebrow and the left half of his mustache.

The list of wounds inflicted by the authorities in recent days is long: a college student`s leg was broken, another was forced to strip and submit to a beating, paramilitary officers played Russian roulette with a gun pointed at the forehead of a political activist.

This is a sharp break from what people used to call the ``lunch hour revolution,`` a civilized confrontation between middle-class professionals and the defense forces, with unspoken rules against violence.

The lastest flare-up took place on Sunday, when paramilitary forces disrupted a Mass at a Catholic church, firing shots in the air, harassing a woman selling political pamphlets on the sidewalk and wresting a camera from a foreign journalist`s hands. As the troops left, they smashed the windows of several cars.

The country has no uncensored news media, but that does not stop information and speculation from spreading.

Panamanians often are able to detect the advent of political upheaval. Panama City is filled with talk of ``something big`` happening by midweek.

Residents cite indicators that may seem trivial to foreigners. One is Noriega`s absence from public events during the past week, and his tendency to keep mum during appearances before that.

``This is the final stage, when Noriega will realize the country isn`t running. If he doesn`t leave now, he`s never leaving,`` a banker said.

Noriega`s defenders say that those rumors are worth about as much as checks drawn on the National Bank of Panama. They say that the general intends to stay and that government ministers are drawing up plans to revive the economy.

Even the banker, who dislikes Noriega, said that the economy could easily be revived if the government brings about political stability.

At a party Saturday night in a wealthy neighborhood, a man in his 30s insisted that the next week would bring a dramatic political shakeup. His wife reminded listeners that he had made the same prediction the week before.