Burundi: BURUNDI - Political Economy Analysis (PEA)Bujumbura, Burundi

With approximately 11 million inhabitants, only 27,834 square kilometres of land and 900$ of yearly income per capita, Burundi is one of the most densely populated and poorest countries in the world. The country s economic situation is alarming. Indeed, 93% of the population is mostly employed in subsistence farming activities, and unemployment is widespread, particularly among young citizens. With nearly 65% of the population living below the poverty line, Burundi ranks 180th out of 186 countries in the Human Development Index.

Since her independence in 1962 Burundi has been plagued by tension between ethnic groups. A civil war, sparked off in 1994 made Burundi the scene of one of Africa's most difficult and persistent conflicts. The conflicts have lasted for decades, worsened by the salient tensions between the ruling party and the opposition that have undermined the country s economic growth.

Oxfam has been working in Burundi since the end of the nineties, with a wide range of activities in various sectors: food security, women s rights and leadership, strengthening of local civic society, WASH, disaster and risk reduction, humanitarian intervention and so on. Since 2017 the One-Oxfam model has been implemented: only one country office is present in the country, representing the whole of Oxfam International s affiliates operating in the country. Strategically, Oxfam Burundi follows the lead of the HECA (Horn-East-Central Africa) regional platform, based in Nairobi.

In Burundi, Oxfam has put focus on the following thematic areas:

Improved and sustainable livelihoods

Strengthening Civil Society Organizations in their initiatives for sustainable local governance and country development

Empowerment of women and youth

Following the SHEA crisis at the end of 2017, Oxfam International confederation needed to reduce its footprints in some regions and to rationalize the use of the diminished resources. After an extensive analysis done in consultation with HECA region and Oxfam International, Burundi was placed in cluster 2 Medium priority countries along with Rwanda and Kenya. Indeed, these were *identified as countries where Oxfam could begin to review and explore the possibility of changing the operating business programme model, and become more partner led, with the role of Oxfam limited to that of a technical advisory and support office and knowledge hub* .

The final decision about Burundi was: Burundi already works mainly through local partners, and should move into becoming a more influencing programming at national and regional levels with other CPs in the region. This should be based on a strong PEA which will need to be resourced. There is also need of a review of the legal and risk implications of working through partners potentially with no physical Oxfam presence in the country, so that the CP could move to a fully partner led operational model over time (3 5 years), or if not legally possible with at least a small technical support and influencing office present in the country.

For each country a road map to complete the CMR was established and the first step for Burundi is to conduct a strong PEA, of which Terms of References are here presented. The engagement in a PEA would not be limited to a theoretical exercise, but rather a part of a broader effort to better structure the Country Map Review and adaptive programming within OXFAM actions in Burundi.

Purpose of the Political Economy Analysis (PEA)

The purpose of this Analysis is to deepen understanding of the prevailing context with the key factors that shape decisions regarding development, and this understanding would orient Oxfam s operations and engagement at country level. The specific objectives are:

Critically analyse and document key actors and structures, formal and informal institutions of the political economies (focusing on prioritized themes) and how these shape decision-making and development in the country, to better understand the type and source of challenges associated with working in a volatile socio-economic context as Burundi;

Describe likely political and socio-economic scenarios for the next decade and their implications for Oxfam work and operational models within Burundi;

Better understand the potential of civil society in Burundi and the advantages and risks (operational, legal and financial) for Oxfam engaged in working mainly through CSOs;

To flesh out the different levels of contribution to the lessening and/or the aggravating of the Burundi political economy instability and therefore allow emerging adapting ideas for advocacy and lobbying.

Level of Effort / Key Roles and responsibilities

Lead Research Coordinator(s) (Mission).

Coordination of field researchers and participation in research activities through the study period.

Review and approval of all data collection, stakeholders analysis, and interview guides, tools and materials;

Data Analysis and conduction of focus group discussion

Coordination of the drafting of final report or other outputs.

OXFAM Country Office in Burundi, especially the Country Director (CD), the Head of Programmes (HoP) and the Program Quality Coordinator (PQC).

Leading and help facilitate the PEA process

Participation in supporting the Research Coordinator(s) in data and findings analysis and development of recommendations.

Translators: One or two if needed to support. Translators should be familiar with the terminology used in the cooperation sector.

OI HECA region representatives

They will have the responsibility to help analyse the findings and to sign-off the final documents.

Core and Supporting Questions

Through the Political Economy Analysis, the team will identify core questions and sub-questions to guide the research. Initial questions are listed below, but will need to be refined, and finalized, once the consultant(s) will be selected. Data collection activities will derive from these questions.

Core questions:

(Knowledge Goal) What are the challenges and opportunities associated with Oxfam s ability to reduce its footprint in Burundi?

(Operational Question) What approaches offer the best prospects for advancing constructive and sustainable activity of Oxfam in Burundi?

Supporting Questions:

What are the main challenges (political, social, economic) to working in Burundi today?

What are the possible scenarios for the country in the next 5 years?

What are the implications of the above for Oxfam work in Burundi and in the HECA region?

Which stakeholder groups actually hold power to effect/impede change?

What are the main challenges to improving the ability of CSOs in Burundi to represent themselves and advance their interests? What factors explain these challenges?

Who are the critical stakeholders who can affect or impede change in civil society? What are their concerns/interests? To what incentives might they respond?

What are the implications of the above for Oxfam work in Burundi?

Deliverables

An inception report (no more than 4 pages), 3 days after the commencement of the assignment presenting agreed framework of analysis and work plan to be approved by Oxfam Burundi program team

A draft PEA report (main report) no more than 20 pages, answering the above core and supporting questions

A Power Point concise presentation highlighting the key findings and recommendations to be presented to Oxfam and its partners

A final report validated after integration of all comments exchanged during the PP presentation and comments shared on the draft PEA report

Required Consultant s Profile

The evaluation team will be ideally composed of at least two people: an international lead consultant as head of mission and a consultant from the Great Lakes region, with a good knowledge of the local environment and situation. At least one of them must be fluent in French.

Additional requirements:

Advanced degree in political science, governance, economics or related disciplines

At least five (5) years of relevant work experience in international development, governance or related studies within the Great Lakes region

Demonstrated understanding of major development sectors and issues within the Great Lakes region including humanitarian crises and conflicts, displacement and women s rights dynamics.

Demonstrated experience in engaging with government officials and private sector actors and INGOs

Demonstrated or established networks to support engagement with key stakeholders required for the study

Good understanding of Oxfam s work in development area

How to apply:

How to apply to this opportunity

Please send:

A technical offer, which includes the comprehension of the mission and the CVs of the consultants