NYCFC Weekly Updates By The Numbers – MLS Week 11 May 14, 2018

The bad news is that Atlanta has as many Away wins as they had all last year after just 5 Away Games. The worse news is that they are actually playing better Away than at Home. They won’t finish with 2.4 PPG Away, but if they continue to excel Away they will likely win both SS and the CCL spot.

The good news is that their Away record has not been tough. Ranking teams by PPG in a combined table, they have played 6, 11, 15, 16, and 17. Their loss was to the 11 (Houston) and the 6 is the probably over-ranked Orlando, who have beaten up their own soft schedule (Away to just 5 (the loss to NYC), 14 and 19).

Here is the Away schedule difficulty for some other top rivals for position this year

Red Bulls have played only 4 Away (to be fair they have 2 games in hand) against 6 (ORL again), 12, 17, 19.

The best news is that the NYCFC 2-2-3 Away record was compiled against 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 20. The 10 is Portland, who has not dropped any points at home yet (only 3 games).

Still, Atlanta has its 4 Away wins in hand, while NYC just has a schedule that gets easier. Winning 4 of 5 Away is impressive no matter the competition. NYC has work to do on the softer part of its Away schedule.

Also Atlanta lucked out by playing the top 2 West teams — SKC and LAFC — at home. They will also play Portland in Atlanta. On the other hand, NYC won 4 points Away to SKC and LAFC while Atlanta won only 3 against them at home.

Of course, the big wildcard in remaining schedules is Toronto, who are ranked 22 right now but are (almost) certainly much better than that and could be a very tough game both Away and Home. Notably, except for losing to Columbus in Week 1, they have not yet played any of the major contenders noted above, which means (1) nobody but CLB has an advantage if TFC gets good, (2) TFC can gain ground on everyone by winning H2H, and (3) their remaining schedule is hard.

The line graphs made me notice that NYC is at 1.0 PPG in the last 5 games. But what a gauntlet: ATL (A), POR (A), FCD (H), RB (A), LAFC (A).

What is need to achieve squad goals:

Looking at this last table, remember that NYC has a chance for an outstanding finish if they can keep it together: NER (H), DCU (H), MTL (A), CHI (H), MIN (A), DCU (A), PHI (H).