Tory majority would test Harper's promise to stay the course

If Prime Minister Stephen Harper finally wins his majority Sunday, questions about any "hidden agenda" could be answered once and for all, observers say.

Photograph by: Tyler Brownbridge
, Windsor Star

OTTAWA — If a Conservative majority emerges after Monday's election, it will put to rest the question that has loomed over federal politics for nearly a decade: Does Stephen Harper harbour a "hidden agenda" to push Canada to the far right of the political spectrum?

The question has dogged Harper since he returned to federal politics in 2002 to lead the Canadian Alliance. As head of the National Citizens Coalition, he had lambasted the Liberals for meddling with the free market, stifling experimentation with private health care, and pandering to Quebec at the expense of the West.

Harper's record as prime minister of a minority government has arguably been more mundane than his critics warned. In terms of political tactics, he has been accused of bullying his opponents, choking off the flow of information to the public and flouting the will of Parliament. But on most policy fronts, from spending growth to foreign takeovers, the Conservatives have governed closer to the centre than many observers expected.

Harper's entire campaign has been based on the premise that only a Conservative majority can provide the stability needed to ensure Canada's economic recovery remains on track. He has repeatedly insisted that, if the Tories secure a majority, they would govern in much the same way as they have with a minority. He has rejected making bold moves on contentious issues such as incorporating Quebec into the Constitution or cracking down on abortion.

"Now is not the time for unnecessary risk or political gambles," Harper told supporters in Brampton, Ont., on March 27, in a stump speech that would change little throughout the campaign. "We all know that it is the time to protect our economic advantage, to complete our economic recovery and to keep our taxes down."

It's unlikely a Conservative majority would involve any major short-term departures from the government's agenda. The Tories have promised to push through a dozen of their crime bills within 100 days of taking power with a majority. The Conservatives say they would also follow through on vows to klll the long-gun registry and end public subsidies for political parties.

There are a few new proposals in the party's platform, such as an office that would monitor and promote "religious freedom" around the world, and an edict that bureaucrats must eliminate a regulation for every one they add.

The Conservatives also promised a handful of new targeted tax breaks during the campaign, such as one that would allow couples with children under 18 to split their income for tax purposes. The Tories would also double the contribution limit for tax-free savings accounts and extend a fitness tax credit to adults. But the Harper government wouldn't implement those measures until the deficit is eliminated, which the Tories project will occur by 2014-15.

The first budget under a Conservative majority would therefore look very similar to the one tabled by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on March 22.

Still, Harper has conceded that winning a majority would allow the Conservatives to adopt a more long-term focus. Some economists, such as parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page, have lamented that the minority Parliament has shown little interest in tackling the long-term demographic challenges the country faces, such as the increasing strain that an aging population will put on federal finances.

Harper's critics fear he would use a majority to crack down on dissent and further concentrate power within the Prime Minister's Office. But some political observers believe Harper might actually soften his approach, once relieved from the constant political pressure of a minority Parliament.

"With a majority government, you don't have to worry about every little mistake you make turning into defeat, or into a major issue that's going to cost you in the next election. So you could see the government being a little more relaxed, maybe a little more forthcoming with documents that Parliament wants," said Kathy Brock, a professor in political studies and public policy at Queen's University.

A majority presents an opportunity for Harper to continue to build toward his stated goal of positioning the Conservatives as Canada's natural governing party, a title long claimed by the Liberals. By continuing to govern cautiously and focus on economic issues, he could woo right-leaning former Liberal supporters into the Tory fold.

"When a party comes into government in a majority situation, one of the things that an astute leader does is take a look at the policies of the other parties that attracted voters in the election and then tries to incorporate them," said Brock.

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