Busy hurricane season predicted

Published: Tuesday, March 26, 2013 at 7:17 p.m.

Last Modified: Tuesday, March 26, 2013 at 11:19 p.m.

NEW ORLEANS - Forecasters at Colorado State University are predicting an above-average to extremely active Atlantic hurricane season, in part because of a lack of warm equatorial Pacific water temperatures that could depress activity.

The early outlook by renowned climatologist Bill Gray does not yet provide a prediction for the number of named storms and hurricanes. His comments represent a preview of what he is expected to say Thursday at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans.

“I expect we're going to come out with a busy forecast for this year,” Gray told the Herald-Tribune on Tuesday.

On average from 1981 to 2010, hurricane seasons have brought a total of 16 named tropical storms, with five growing into stronger hurricanes.

Gray's forecast comes as emergency managers reel from the 2012 season, which turned out to have more storms than expected. Major events included Hurricane Isaac, which flooded metropolitan New Orleans, and Hurricane Sandy, which devastated parts of the Northeast coastline, including New York City.

A total of 19 named storms formed in 2012, eight more than the historic average. The year tied 2010 and 2011 for the third-busiest season on record.

In December, Gray and colleague Philip Klotzbach predicted a 40 percent chance that the 2013 hurricane season would be “above average,” with a 20 percent chance it be “extremely active.”

“We're now somewhere in between,” Gray said. “We're looking for an above-average year.”

The forecasters, based in Fort Collins, Colo., plan to provide a more detailed forecast April 10.

<p><em>NEW ORLEANS</em> - Forecasters at Colorado State University are predicting an above-average to extremely active Atlantic hurricane season, in part because of a lack of warm equatorial Pacific water temperatures that could depress activity.</p><p>The early outlook by renowned climatologist Bill Gray does not yet provide a prediction for the number of named storms and hurricanes. His comments represent a preview of what he is expected to say Thursday at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans.</p><p>“I expect we're going to come out with a busy forecast for this year,” Gray told the Herald-Tribune on Tuesday.</p><p>On average from 1981 to 2010, hurricane seasons have brought a total of 16 named tropical storms, with five growing into stronger hurricanes.</p><p>Gray's forecast comes as emergency managers reel from the 2012 season, which turned out to have more storms than expected. Major events included Hurricane Isaac, which flooded metropolitan New Orleans, and Hurricane Sandy, which devastated parts of the Northeast coastline, including New York City.</p><p>A total of 19 named storms formed in 2012, eight more than the historic average. The year tied 2010 and 2011 for the third-busiest season on record.</p><p>In December, Gray and colleague Philip Klotzbach predicted a 40 percent chance that the 2013 hurricane season would be “above average,” with a 20 percent chance it be “extremely active.”</p><p>“We're now somewhere in between,” Gray said. “We're looking for an above-average year.”</p><p>The forecasters, based in Fort Collins, Colo., plan to provide a more detailed forecast April 10.</p><p>The official hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.</p>