Earth Watch: Tons of Japan tsunami debris approaching Hawaii

Mar. 2, 2012

An aerial view of debris from an 8.9 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami that struck northern Japan. A mass of tsunami debris is estimated to hit Hawaii later this winter and may make its way to California by the second anniversary of the disaster. Some photos show cars and refrigerators sitting on a floating mat of wood and other building materials. Experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other researchers are tracking the debris. / U.S. Navy photo by Dylan McCord

The first anniversary of the Fukushima disaster is little more than a week away.

By the time March 11 arrives, there will be no shortage of media coverage of the 12 months since the near-record earthquake and tsunami rocked Japan and killed an estimated 23,000 people.

The video images of the region’s nuclear plants — exposed and leaking radiation — will have long-lasting impact on the industry and the world’s population.

But before all those questions can be answered, Hawaii and the West Coast have a more urgent problem: A mass of tsunami debris is estimated to hit Hawaii later this winter and may make its way to California by the second anniversary of the disaster.

We’re not talking logs and chunks of floating metal.

The photos of this mass show cars and refrigerators sitting on an island-sized mat of wood and other ripped-up building materials.

Experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other researchers are tracking the debris, trying to assess the possible impacts on potential landing points and how they can help protect natural resources in its path.

NOAA experts say the scientific consensus is that the likelihood of radioactive contamination arriving with the debris is small for a couple reasons:

The tsunami hit a long stretch of the Japanese coast, many miles from the Fukushima power plant.

The debris washed away well before radioactive water spilled out of the plant.

Still, it’s a big and problem-plagued reminder that overseas isn’t really that far away, especially if you’re downstream of an incident.

Scientists have been using computer models to predict the island’s drift rate.

NOAA and researchers at the University of Hawaii are estimating that the some of it could hit the 50th state by the end of winter – a few weeks away.

From there it’s predicted to hit the West Coast of the U.S. next year and circle back to Hawaii one to three years after that.

Originally, there were warnings that the mass weighed as much as 25 million tons, but that came from Japanese estimates of the tonnage of debris that hit the water after the tsunami.

If you’re expecting Mother Nature to clean this mess up, you might need to ask your progeny to keep an eye on the progress of that.