Whether or not ocean currents draw cold water from this blob southward into tropical regions of the Atlantic could determine how active the season becomes.

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If the cooler water migrates southward across the eastern Atlantic, then westward into tropical breeding grounds, it will lower sea-surface temperatures over the region where 85 percent of Atlantic tropical systems develop.Another possibility is that the water from the cold blob could alter the makeup of deep ocean currents and affect the salinity of the water.

Also mentioned in paper was the possibility of a dying el niño to a LA Nina episode would create lower than average shear in the hurricane developmental regions possibly leading to a higher than normal season.

Also mentioned in paper was the possibility of a dying el niño to a LA Nina episode would create lower than average shear in the hurricane developmental regions possibly leading to a higher than normal season.

Going off of the RRWT, my thoughts are development off the SE coast and the Gulf of Yucatan/Mexico.

Highlights:1) Odds favor a hot and dry summer in the Mid-Atlantic region2) Based on analog years, it looks like Atlantic Basin tropical activity will be slightly above normal this year with approximately 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 "majors"3) Primary target area of Atlantic Basin tropical activity should be the Southeast US, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea regions4) Tropical system rains not likely to “help out” much in the Mid-Atlantic region during the summer months