Two African waves worth mentioning

There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.

None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.

Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Quoting dearmas:Just a question: If 97 were to make it to the Caribbean, how long would it take to make it there??? We are going on a cruise on Aug 1st to Cayman islands and Mexico.

Make sure you buy some sick sickness medicine for a bumpy ride...haha j/k. I would like to beleive if it is moving 500 miles a day (will slow a bit if it gets that far) that it should be clearing out by then for your trip. It will be close though.

Dr. Lyons is a great forecaster and that's why he should leave the TWC. The TWC is influencing his forecasts. Its now become subjective rather than objective forecasting and all becuz of their sponsors.

The NOAA buoy located at 14.5N 53.0W is reporting 1-min sustained winds of 29mph and seas to 9.5ft and it is still 100 miles from the leading edge of the tropical wave. Looks like there are some strong winds developing on the north side as it interacts with the surface high.

Lets go Tom Watson today.....WOW what a story! Everyone have a good day...out till late this evening......can't wait to get back to see what the Shear forecast will be like tonite......things could get very interesting.

sporteguy, maybe there's different stats, esp if they are using the big planes or the smaller NOAA ones, concerning fuel consumption.

A small invest probably doesn't warrant the need, as opposed to a Cat3 that is building, I guess they balance need of data with fuel consumption, throwing everything into the decision to fly recon or not.