Lets Talk About The Market

Originally posted by cpdaman
2. the fed's could always step in and buy futures, especially along support levels (08 lows) ... ( I tulip thinks they will, and says japan already
has) i don't have a strong belief either way.

[edit on 12-2-2009 by cpdaman]

ok my belief is strengthening that they do........

I know they float rumors to clobber the shorts (short squeeze) near support levels MID afternoon....but i think they are doing some buying because the
OBAMA mortgage news didn't sound that impressive or large in scope....unless some INvestment firms like GS ....JP..etc, *just got the details on the
real bank plan to come* it's almost a toss up IMO

Originally posted by cpdaman
2. the fed's could always step in and buy futures, especially along support levels (08 lows) ... ( I tulip thinks they will, and says japan already
has) i don't have a strong belief either way.

[edit on 12-2-2009 by cpdaman]

ok my belief is strengthening that they do........

I know they float rumors to clobber the shorts (short squeeze) near support levels MID afternoon....but i think they are doing some buying because the
OBAMA mortgage news didn't sound that impressive or large in scope....unless some INvestment firms like GS ....JP..etc, *just got the details on the
real bank plan to come* it's almost a toss up IMO

[edit on 12-2-2009 by cpdaman]

The next few days will be telling but look at this daily

We tried braking below that lower pennant line and we could not do it. If we closed lower than there I would be 100% positive we were gonna do some
tanking. Now that it didnt Im near sure we will be a rising.....

I've seen that triangle posted pretty prominently in lots of TA oriented discussions, a break to the downside of it has a target so low, I'm scared
to speak it even on ATS.

Though I'm not actively trading, I've been looking at today's action since I've got home. That's a massive move in the last 30 minutes, haven't
seen too much like that in a while now but it was happening all the time in late '07 and early '08. Looks like the pump is on at least short term.

At the end of the day the problem as I see it is cash flow; too many borrowers can’t make their payments so they default. If the payment terms, not
the principal amount, could be modified sufficiently to where payments become affordable, defaults should decline substantially. With troubled assets
performing, although at lowered levels, the uncertainty will dissipate and price discovery will begin to emerge. At that point equity injections and
backstop guarantees could provide the necessary capital for renewed
lending and the system will begin to heal.

Real economists and people within the Mortgage industry realize that Obama's plan will absolutely slaughter the banks and Security holders.

The AAA and super seniors would take a hit and be written down, rating action would likely take it down to A, in some instances to Equity/Non
Rated.

50% of the AAA home-eq/Alt-A out there has the provision that a loan modification involving reduction in balance will be charged PRO-RATA, regardless
of seniority, to the loan structures.

when there is a loss, the bonds will take a hit from equity up to subordinate then super seniors.

When there is a loss DUE to modification, the entire structure will take the fair share per balance remaining of the hit. Also think about how big the
AAA right now considering much of the default has flown through the support over the years. This will also spill over into the ABS Card and autos.

When you jump the seniority in the capital structure, you put at risk the entire structure. People will no longer loan large sums of money at low
interest rates, because they will be afraid of assuming the risk of the more subordinate levels of debt, while assuming the ROI on the more senior.

IOW, it is a lose-lose for the most prudent money in the capital structure.

What Obama is trying to do will cause a Glacial Freeze of the global money supply.

The market today (Th, 12 Feb) "felt" like it was being bought in the 811 area scale down; ergo, not going to make it < 800 as it "should" have.
(I actually bought it in the 810 handle and take a little bit of heat before we had the "Fire in the hole!" rally...exiting a tad early at 833+).
This tells me that the "market manipulators" were in there and that since they had their way with the market so easily that this market is "dry
tender". Remember, the fundamentals are always worst at the bottom (not that this is "The Bottom"...just a tradeable one)! This market will go
over 1000 before June SPs expire with a big impulse in March (as it was 6 yrs ago).
This will mostly be short covering but we should get some "good news" as we get over 950 into the 1000 area. Look to start shorting over 1000 into
mid to late May (16-22~). Good luck and dont forget to "flip the card."

Thought some of you might enjoy this World Market Index. Everything from major indices to commodities, currency
pairs to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index....one stop. Just click on the item of interest to view current chart.

Hi TJG. Click the S&P. You'll see today's White Hammer...bullish reversal pattern, but with a low level of certainty. Could mark an interim
bottom...but needs further confirmation tomorrow, e.g. - a long white body, prefferably on heavy volume.

Day traders are required to close their positions by EOD. This accounts for some of the increase in activity we generally see heading into the close.
Bears got quite a surprise today.

Originally posted by stevegmu
I mostly trade in commodities, but have been on stock buying spree of late. I bought a good number of GE shares last Friday at $11.11. Now, GE
normally wouldn't interest me, however, after I heard J. Immelt was named to Obama's Economic Recovery Board. I imagine they will be benefitting
greatly from the 'stimulus' bill.

Your a brave soul to be buying right now. Im personally shorting till the dow hits 6k and the S&P around 600. That just my personal opinion. You
can always cost average down.

Trading Day 2/13/09

Ok well to not to many peoples surprise we are up so far today. After that big turn around in the last hour of trading last night I dont know who
would have the balls to sell into that but hey...Ive seen stranger. Not really much in the way of news just some consumer sentiment numbers. I guess
I still remain a little optimistic after that turn around yesterday. Once again I dont see to many people selling into that. We'll see what
happens....

GS has been the primary execution arm of the PPT since the days of Bob Rubin at Treasury (Clinton adm). The govt and FRB has long been overtly
involved in the bond ("cpn passes") and FX mkts for some time...and after the Crash of 1987 the President's Working Cmte on Financial Markets (aka
Plunge Protection Team that reported to A. Greenspan) was created to prevent another collapse. The fact that SP futures settled at cash and not
requiring a physical delivery of a basket of stocks facilitated this. They could buy and buy and then let the contracts expire without having to sell
them or roll them over as a spread. In reality it did prevent another crash but also created a bubble in equities to the upside (flip side of that
coin).

I would expect next week to be slow, possibly with modest gains on Tuesday. After that it's going to depend on the housing starts & industrial
production reports on Wed. and the jobless data, CPI, and PPI reports later in the week. The initial unemployment claims are going to have to spike
ridiculously here soon as we're starting to get into some of those huge layoffs the past couple of months becoming eligible for aid. As for the CPI
& PPI, I honestly can't imagine those looking anything but bad.

Of course, it seems like logic has abandoned the market long ago so maybe the worse these figures look, the better the market will do.

Ok here we go and yes burd you are right the futures are tanking after hours....grrr why couldnt this happen this week...anyways here is the weekly
SPX chart....

we are going to move big this coming up week. Its a 4 day week so keep this in mind. We are at the end of the pennant so whatever way we move up or
down we are going to move hard. I tend to lead bearish because this is the week Obama signs the stimulus bill which will not be received well by the
market. (Im sure the banking bailouts however will be received nice by the market *cough*) Today seemed volatile for sure for there is plenty of
bearish sentiment but not to many people want to sell and get trapped like on Thursday. So my prediction is we test 7500 next week dow and 775 for
the spx. If we break below get ready....

S&P at 300 and DOW around 3-4K 6 weeks from now within a fortnight either way.

Have fun.

Look at commodities prices now, and production, and compare to 30's precedents, we are where we are now as the financial "Tulips" have bottomed,
now ish maybe about 25% max left in them for some type of stability, that was a fake product though like the "tulip" depression, the trend now is to
see how the old fashioned gears of the basis will take us.

The Gears that drive the whole car along, the basics, are NOW important, the fuel (liquidity) and fake brand/Me/I/Panosonic/Toys/Gadgets etc can be
stripped from the car, the label, sound system, air con, the car will slow down and stop, but put more fuel in (bailouts Fiat Printing) and it will
drive forward again. but , but when the Gears fail, or worse the tyres burst it Crashes proper.

Look at Copper (inflation taken in for real price now, and the inflation or deflation of these BASIC/tyres commodities etc), Iron, Food, Tin, Zinc
Etc.
Compare with the 1930's 3yrs before.

Notice some very very scary trends and movements in these areas that make the 30's look like the dot com bubble.

Ignore MSM and most saying that 1930's this and that, they have been comparing until about 3-4 weeks ago with the wrong time, the
"Financial/Housing/Brand/Gadget etc" drop collapse we have seen is better related to the Dutch Tulip depression in the 1800's, it is about 2 weeks
before April end of financial year that the real figures, spending plans etc will be seen, and the only Now when the commodities are the real basis of
the economies information can we start to compare it.

If you do as I have, and mention above it is worse than anything then.

the real deal is to clean out bad assets on the banks books. they also have to stop "mark to market" if these two things are done, you pretty much
avoid a meltdown. there is 12 trillion sitting on the sidelines making less then 1%, that money sooner or later will have to go to work, china is in
full stimulus mode and that might be the best place to park some money for a few months of swing trading. GE dividend as of this morning paying out a
little over 10% in dividends. why GE? big middle eastern money going into GE and it's products. however, i have bought about 5k in silver dimes and
quarters, because if dollar hyperinflates, it will be the "street money". if you can afford it, physical gold will be good for larger purchases. and
if it comes to that, you might want to pick up a S&W 40 cal. for those shopping excursions. the amount of thieves will also be hyperinflating.

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