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Abstract

Today’s IT project portfolios (ITPP) contain many projects and varied interdependencies. Depending on a
project’s criticality to the ITPP, a failure can have massive consequences. However, existing methods
usually only assess overall project portfolio risk and do not account for the criticality of single projects and
their dependencies. Applying Bayesian network modeling to ITPPs, we bridge this gap and extend the
current body of knowledge for the information systems and project management literatures. Our new
method analyzes single projects’ criticality in a portfolio context by considering both transitive
dependencies and different dependency types in an integrated way. Since we demonstrate that single
projects’ criticality can vary substantially, being aware of which projects are critical is a key success factor
for ITPP management. For practitioners, our method provides a straightforward procedure to enhance
ITPP risk management.