Tiverton and Honiton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators
for the new Tiverton and Honiton constituency, the 'South West' area
and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes
(what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating
to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are
those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator

Seat

South West

All GB

Party Winner

CON

CON

CON

Economic Position

11° Right

8° Right

0°

National Position

12° Nat

4° Nat

0°

EU Leave %

56%

53%

52%

British Identity

26%

27%

29%

Good Health

44%

47%

48%

UK Born

95%

92%

88%

Good Education

37%

40%

39%

Good Job

45%

50%

51%

High SEC

49%

52%

51%

Average Age

53.9

50.5

48.5

ABC1 Class

47%

54%

53%

Tiverton and Honiton ranks #204 for "Leave",
#217 for "Right" and #215 for "National"
out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below.
The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education,
Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme
indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

Topic

Cat 1

Cat 2

Cat 3

Cat 4

Cat 5

Economic Position

Very Left

Left

Centrist

Right

Very Right

National Position

Very Int

International

Centrist

National

Very Nat

EU Leave %

Very Remain

Remain

Balanced

Leave

Very Leave

Census

Very Low

Low

Medium

High

Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Indicator

CensusQuestion

Definition / Included Census Categories

Party Winner

–

Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus

Economic Position

–

Economic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.

National Position

–

National position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.

Tiverton and Honiton: Map

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had
the new boundaries for Tiverton and Honiton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the
district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based
on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts
and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies.
So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015
from the period 2012-2015.
For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party.
A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply
general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which
means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election.
To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled,
whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election
turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general
election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call
these strong and weak parties respectively.
The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes
proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes,
but only 10,000 general election
votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated
to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat.
For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool
and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer
of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

List of old seats forming part of Tiverton and Honiton

Old seat: Devon East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon East,
as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon East

Transfer-adjusted Results

District

Ward

Electorate2017

New Seat

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

UKIPVotes

GreenVotes

NATVotes

MINVotes

OTHVotes

TotalVotes

East Devon

Broadclyst

4,245

Devon East

1,760

235

72

44

0

0

988

13

3,112

East Devon

Budleigh

5,243

Devon East

2,356

253

36

56

0

0

1,128

15

3,844

East Devon

Clyst Valley

2,007

Devon East

974

75

15

19

0

0

384

5

1,472

East Devon

Exmouth Brixington

5,539

Devon East

2,222

542

107

75

0

0

1,100

14

4,060

East Devon

Exmouth Halsdon

5,910

Devon East

2,244

575

151

76

0

0

1,270

17

4,333

East Devon

Exmouth Littleham

6,311

Devon East

2,463

454

126

227

0

0

1,338

17

4,625

East Devon

Exmouth Town

6,097

Devon East

1,960

839

184

80

0

0

1,388

18

4,469

East Devon

Exmouth Withycombe Raleigh

6,357

Devon East

2,283

677

171

87

0

0

1,423

19

4,660

East Devon

Newton Poppleford and Harpford

1,837

Devon East

608

76

9

18

0

0

626

8

1,345

East Devon

Ottery St Mary Town

4,317

Devon East

1,123

374

52

45

0

0

1,550

20

3,164

East Devon

Raleigh

1,864

Devon East

624

74

6

14

0

0

640

8

1,366

East Devon

Sidmouth Rural

1,916

Devon East

656

79

7

19

0

0

635

8

1,404

East Devon

Sidmouth Sidford

5,589

Devon East

1,700

401

106

69

0

0

1,798

24

4,098

East Devon

Sidmouth Town

4,546

Devon East

1,378

229

53

56

0

0

1,594

21

3,331

East Devon

Woodbury and Lympstone

4,623

Devon East

1,299

164

39

45

0

0

1,817

24

3,388

Exeter

St Loyes

5,443

Devon East

1,728

877

146

165

0

0

1,060

14

3,990

Exeter

Topsham

4,872

Devon East

1,736

680

144

54

0

0

946

12

3,572

East Devon

Feniton and Buckerell

34

Tiverton and Honiton

9

2

0

0

0

0

13

0

24

East Devon

Ottery St Mary Rural

3,568

Devon East

1,294

121

11

30

0

0

1,144

15

2,615

East Devon

Whimple

2,062

Devon East

890

129

36

22

0

0

428

5

1,510

Total

82,380

29,307

6,856

1,471

1,201

0

0

21,270

277

60,382

The full details of these calculations are given on the
Devon East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tiverton and Honiton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tiverton and Honiton,
as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tiverton and Honiton

Transfer-adjusted Results

District

Ward

Electorate2017

New Seat

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

UKIPVotes

GreenVotes

NATVotes

MINVotes

OTHVotes

TotalVotes

East Devon

Axminster Rural

2,142

Tiverton and Honiton

940

490

71

0

33

0

0

0

1,534

East Devon

Axminster Town

3,756

Tiverton and Honiton

1,364

727

523

0

75

0

0

0

2,689

East Devon

Beer and Branscombe

1,508

Tiverton and Honiton

688

293

68

0

31

0

0

0

1,080

East Devon

Coly Valley

3,710

Tiverton and Honiton

1,821

617

148

0

71

0

0

0

2,657

East Devon

Dunkeswell

1,658

Tiverton and Honiton

806

289

64

0

28

0

0

0

1,187

East Devon

Honiton St Paul's

3,857

Tiverton and Honiton

1,620

878

187

0

77

0

0

0

2,762

East Devon

Newbridges

1,931

Tiverton and Honiton

880

270

200

0

33

0

0

0

1,383

East Devon

Otterhead

1,860

Tiverton and Honiton

962

269

69

0

32

0

0

0

1,332

East Devon

Seaton

5,853

Tiverton and Honiton

2,285

1,039

754

0

113

0

0

0

4,191

East Devon

Tale Vale

2,062

Tiverton and Honiton

1,069

304

70

0

33

0

0

0

1,476

East Devon

Trinity

2,044

Tiverton and Honiton

1,063

295

71

0

35

0

0

0

1,464

East Devon

Yarty

1,925

Tiverton and Honiton

879

280

117

0

102

0

0

0

1,378

Mid Devon

Canonsleigh

2,678

Tiverton and Honiton

1,283

420

91

0

124

0

0

0

1,918

Mid Devon

Castle

3,476

Tiverton and Honiton

1,191

902

333

0

63

0

0

0

2,489

Mid Devon

Clare and Shuttern

2,798

Tiverton and Honiton

1,438

425

96

0

45

0

0

0

2,004

Mid Devon

Cranmore

4,164

Tiverton and Honiton

1,664

1,035

203

0

80

0

0

0

2,982

Mid Devon

Cullompton North

3,329

Tiverton and Honiton

1,538

635

154

0

57

0

0

0

2,384

Mid Devon

Cullompton Outer

1,712

Tiverton and Honiton

862

274

62

0

28

0

0

0

1,226

Mid Devon

Cullompton South

3,016

Tiverton and Honiton

1,270

675

155

0

60

0

0

0

2,160

Mid Devon

Halberton

1,654

Tiverton and Honiton

799

251

56

0

79

0

0

0

1,185

Mid Devon

Lower Culm

4,892

Tiverton and Honiton

2,427

822

178

0

76

0

0

0

3,503

Mid Devon

Lowman

5,558

Tiverton and Honiton

2,114

1,331

239

0

297

0

0

0

3,981

Mid Devon

Upper Culm

3,288

Tiverton and Honiton

1,567

585

138

0

64

0

0

0

2,354

Mid Devon

Westexe

4,366

Tiverton and Honiton

1,587

1,083

208

0

249

0

0

0

3,127

East Devon

Feniton and Buckerell

1,868

Tiverton and Honiton

833

364

102

0

39

0

0

0

1,338

East Devon

Honiton St Michael's

5,626

Tiverton and Honiton

2,521

1,117

284

0

108

0

0

0

4,030

Total

80,731

35,471

15,670

4,641

0

2,032

0

0

0

57,814

The full details of these calculations are given on the
Tiverton and Honiton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Tiverton and Honiton

The new seat of Tiverton and Honiton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Tiverton and Honiton

District

Ward

Electorate2017

Old Seat

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

UKIPVotes

GreenVotes

NATVotes

MINVotes

OTHVotes

TotalVotes

East Devon

Axminster Rural

2,142

Tiverton and Honiton

940

490

71

0

33

0

0

0

1,534

East Devon

Axminster Town

3,756

Tiverton and Honiton

1,364

727

523

0

75

0

0

0

2,689

East Devon

Beer and Branscombe

1,508

Tiverton and Honiton

688

293

68

0

31

0

0

0

1,080

East Devon

Coly Valley

3,710

Tiverton and Honiton

1,821

617

148

0

71

0

0

0

2,657

East Devon

Dunkeswell

1,658

Tiverton and Honiton

806

289

64

0

28

0

0

0

1,187

East Devon

Feniton and Buckerell

34

Devon East

9

2

0

0

0

0

13

0

24

East Devon

Feniton and Buckerell

1,868

Tiverton and Honiton

833

364

102

0

39

0

0

0

1,338

East Devon

Honiton St Michael's

5,626

Tiverton and Honiton

2,521

1,117

284

0

108

0

0

0

4,030

East Devon

Honiton St Paul's

3,857

Tiverton and Honiton

1,620

878

187

0

77

0

0

0

2,762

East Devon

Newbridges

1,931

Tiverton and Honiton

880

270

200

0

33

0

0

0

1,383

East Devon

Otterhead

1,860

Tiverton and Honiton

962

269

69

0

32

0

0

0

1,332

East Devon

Seaton

5,853

Tiverton and Honiton

2,285

1,039

754

0

113

0

0

0

4,191

East Devon

Tale Vale

2,062

Tiverton and Honiton

1,069

304

70

0

33

0

0

0

1,476

East Devon

Trinity

2,044

Tiverton and Honiton

1,063

295

71

0

35

0

0

0

1,464

East Devon

Yarty

1,925

Tiverton and Honiton

879

280

117

0

102

0

0

0

1,378

Mid Devon

Canonsleigh

2,678

Tiverton and Honiton

1,283

420

91

0

124

0

0

0

1,918

Mid Devon

Castle

3,476

Tiverton and Honiton

1,191

902

333

0

63

0

0

0

2,489

Mid Devon

Clare and Shuttern

2,798

Tiverton and Honiton

1,438

425

96

0

45

0

0

0

2,004

Mid Devon

Cranmore

4,164

Tiverton and Honiton

1,664

1,035

203

0

80

0

0

0

2,982

Mid Devon

Cullompton North

3,329

Tiverton and Honiton

1,538

635

154

0

57

0

0

0

2,384

Mid Devon

Cullompton Outer

1,712

Tiverton and Honiton

862

274

62

0

28

0

0

0

1,226

Mid Devon

Cullompton South

3,016

Tiverton and Honiton

1,270

675

155

0

60

0

0

0

2,160

Mid Devon

Halberton

1,654

Tiverton and Honiton

799

251

56

0

79

0

0

0

1,185

Mid Devon

Lower Culm

4,892

Tiverton and Honiton

2,427

822

178

0

76

0

0

0

3,503

Mid Devon

Lowman

5,558

Tiverton and Honiton

2,114

1,331

239

0

297

0

0

0

3,981

Mid Devon

Upper Culm

3,288

Tiverton and Honiton

1,567

585

138

0

64

0

0

0

2,354

Mid Devon

Westexe

4,366

Tiverton and Honiton

1,587

1,083

208

0

249

0

0

0

3,127

Total

80,765

35,480

15,672

4,641

0

2,032

0

13

0

57,838

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Tiverton and Honiton.
Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those
used by the Boundary Commissions.