I come to this conclusion after much thought and with clear recognition that this decision will impose significant financial hardship on colleges and may push some to extinction. My conclusion is based both on the risk to the health of the more than 30 million students, faculty and staff, not to mention their families and the communities that they are in, as well as the quality of the college experience that is likely to be provided in the fall if colleges open and then have to close.

There is great uncertainty surrounding the virus and how it will act over the next several months, but most experts predict that there will be at least one spike up of the virus which could be worse than what we have already seen. A study done by researchers at Cornell quantifies the large number of student interactions even when they are only in small classes; eliminating large classes will not mitigate the risks, raising the specter of campuses becoming like cruise ships infected with the virus.

MANILA, PHILIPPINES – MAY 07: The cruise ship, Ruby Princess on May 7, 2020 in the waters of Manila … [+]Bay, Philippines. The Ruby Princess cruise ship, which is linked to 21 deaths and more than 600 coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, has sailed into Philippine waters on Thursday en route to drop off Filipino crew in Manila. The cruise ship, which is the subject of investigation in Australia, joins at least 16 other cruise ships at anchor waiting for their more than 5,000 Filipino crew to be tested for the coronavirus before disembarking as part of strict quarantine protocols. (Photo by Ezra Acayan/Getty Images)

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We know that we will not have a vaccine to protect us from the virus in the next several months and the probability of finding a cure to the virus before school is scheduled to start is highly unlikely. Most schools which have announced plans to open acknowledge the threat of the virus and note that their plans could be changed at any time if health conditions warrant. These schools have announced changes to their calendar in order to mitigate student interactions with the outside world and to increase their flexibility to toggle between in-person and remote learning. Colleges, except perhaps the most rural, will not be able to operate within a safe bubble. The risk to health should outweigh the financial motivation to bring students back to campus.

Beyond the health risks, most campuses which plan to open will still have some online courses because of their size and to reach populations of students and faculty who are unable or unwilling to return to campus. By deciding now to operate remotely in the fall, colleges can focus their limited human and financial resources on improving the online experience rather than tinkering with their term structure and looking into hybrid solutions to accommodate all students and faculty. Currently, most colleges are modeling various costly scenarios which will require faculty and staff to modify how they will work. Among these scenarios are: offering classes in a condensed term structure, a mix of in-person and online classes, or restricting the size of in-person classes. Faculty can’t possibly be adapting their courses to all of these various scenarios. Despite all this planning, most schools acknowledge that they might have to move all classes online with little notice if the virus spikes. Why not just acknowledge all the risks of opening and devote resources to providing a high quality remote experience for students?

Instead of struggling to figure out how to modify campuses to make them safe for returning students, administrators should be figuring out how best to educate students from a distance. Instead of calculating how much it will cost to test all students periodically for the virus and provide masks for all students and worrying about architectural renovations to classrooms and residence halls, schools should be focusing on perfecting distance learning. Instead of worrying how bathrooms will have to modified to accommodate social distancing, colleges should be investing in improved learning management systems. Instead of forming agreements with local hotels to accommodate their students in single rooms, they should be working with their faculty to help them make the transition to successful online learning. Instead of developing new residential life programs, they should be ensuring that co-curricular and support activities are all online and of high quality. The universities which have well-developed online programs not only have their courses online but also have clubs, honor societies, e-sports and cafes among other student activities and amenities. Many students were dissatisfied with their online experience in the spring and if schools are going to be online in the fall, they will need to upgrade these experiences, but that decision must be made now.

By making the decision now to operate online, faculty will have three months to prepare to teach their courses online. Schools could focus on one scenario that they can control and can devote their time and resources to developing their online campuses and to providing faculty with help in teaching online. Let’s give faculty a chance to move in one direction and do a better job of meeting student expectations in terms of online learning which can be of a very high quality; it should not just be a course moved to zoom.

For those schools that do not have the resources to invest in providing a robust online experience for their students in the fall, now is the time to develop partnerships with schools that have well-developed online campuses so that their students can have high quality experiences without the costs of developing the platform.

The financial risks of being remote in the fall should not be underestimated. Schools will forfeit all of their room and board revenue. According to most surveys, they are likely to experience lower enrollments than if they were operating on the ground. There will be significant pressure from those students who do attend to have reductions in tuition as they argue that the remote experience is different from what they signed up for. Schools are comparing these financial proformas with their expectation of revenue from on-the-ground operations. Many schools are underestimating the financial risks associated with being in person. Most upper class students will not find the college experience that they left. And entering freshman will not have the experience they envisioned as colleges will be operating with social distancing. There will be serious barriers to socializing and limits on extra-curricular activities not to mention that some classes will be online even if the campus is open. Many schools are considering bringing back only some of their classes e.g., freshmen and seniors; this will certainly dampen the enthusiasm of those who have not been invited to campus.

As the pandemic rages on, some institutions will not survive. While some may hope that the Federal government will step in and help, in the end, each administrator has to look in the mirror and ask: “if I open the campus in the fall, am I doing it because it’s the best thing for the students and society as a whole, or am I doing it because the institution and its teaching modalities must not be interfered with, even for a semester or a year?” I opt for letting go of the old, keeping the campus closed and deploying resources toward an improved online experience that maintains health and safety. Or as Michael Sorrell, President of Paul Quinn College said, “The damage caused by a contagion on a campus is far greater than the damage caused by virtual teaching. The range of choices colleges have lies, regrettably, between bad and horrific.” It is not worth playing Russian Roulette with the lives of our college communities.