Without even thinking, my gut reaction as to the winner is that I have no handle on which female author will win it this year but I confidently predict a woman will win it.

The shortlist of six will be announced on Tuesday 13th September. The winner will be announced on Tuesday 25th October 2016.

I hate having the Americans on board as it kind of messes up the prize. It was always a Great Britain and Commonwealth award...the Americans have plenty of 'international worthy' book prizes but we don't.

Do watch out for what the very last minute word is and what the head of Waterstones might be tipping up on 'Front Row' as if he didn't already know who the winner was.

The early positive mover is Graeme Macrae Burnet's 'His Bloody Project' and it's generally 5/2 the field which makes it a superficially competitive contest.

Off the top of my head, and without cheating, I can't remember there being a Scottish author winning in the last ten years so there may be a 'due factor' about this.

On an absolutely selfish level, I don't want to see David Szalay or Madeleine Thien winning...Marlon James kind of broke my heart last year. Any particular reason? Ones that I'm keeping to myself but not betting related, thank you very much for asking.

Got it horrendously wrong. Paul Beatty won. The Man Booker Prize seems to follow the Mercury Prize. PJ Harvey becomes the first double winner then Hilary Mantel does. Mercury Prize goes for two black male winners in a row, Man Booker tries and up them one by going for a Jamaican and an American ~ who subsequently was also the first ever US winner as well.*

Suspect the result was known well in advance even though Paul Beatty was 6/1 fourth favourite when Ladbrokes shut up shop at 12pm yesterday. Madeleine Thien was 2/1, Gordon Macrae Burnet was 3/1, Deborah Levy was 4/1, David Szalay 8/1 and Ottessa Moshfegh 10/1.

No idea what the head of Waterstones was tipping on BBC Radio Four's 'Front Row' this year.

* Antony Hegarty before he became Anohni was argued to be American...or the rest of the band were or something like that.