Colorado to see continued moderate growth in 2012, forecasts CU economist

July 5, 2012

July 5, 2012

The Colorado economy continues to grow at a modest pace in 2012, positioning the state among the healthier in growth nationally, according to economist Richard Wobbekind of the University of Colorado Boulder’s Leeds School of Business.

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Colorado to see continued moderate growth in 2012, forecasts CU economist

July 5, 2012 Richard Wobbekind

The Colorado economy continues to grow at a modest pace in 2012, positioning the state among the healthier in growth nationally, according to economist Richard Wobbekind of the University of Colorado Boulder’s Leeds School of Business.

CUT 1 “The Colorado economy has been growing at a pretty good pace through the first part of the year but the recent months have shown a little bit of slowing in terms of the growth rate. (18) We are anticipating continued moderate growth through out the rest of the year. (:18) Colorado will wind up being one of the better growth states in the country but not quite growing as fast as it was growing in January, February and March, for example, of this year.” (:28)

Wobbekind, who presents the Colorado Business Economic Outlook forecast each December, recently met with steering committee members who represent the state’s major economic sectors for a midyear update.

Midway through the year, Colorado’s job growth rate is up to about 1.6 percent -- a gain of about 35,000 jobs in 2012 if the pace holds steady, placing the state sixth nationally in job growth rate. The estimate is up from last December when the forecast totaled about 23,000 jobs for the year.

CUT 2 “One of the things that’s been really positive is that there has been job growth across a wide array of sectors. So it’s really balanced growth which is symptomatic of broad-based recovery in the economy. (:13) Not only in the primary industries but some of the feeder industries have picked up because the primary industries have picked up.” (:20)

Other notable mentions from the report are:

Unemployment-

CUT 3 “Colorado’s unemployment rate actually has risen a little bit and now were very close, we are about two or three tenths of a percent difference of the national number. What we’ve seen, and this is not unusual, as more people reenter the work force that actually raises the unemployment rate if they don’t find jobs immediately because they are participating but they are unemployed.” (:22)

Construction-

CUT 4 “So far this has been a very good year, a surprisingly good year. (:05) And year over year data for the metro areas, in particular, which is a huge concentration of the construction industry, through May the data is up almost double year over year in terms of the combined residential, non-residential.” (:27)

Agriculture-

CUT 5 “The committee is anticipating another good year. Prices have held up. A big deal there is exports. Beef exports have been really outstanding. That has really helped the agricultural area in general.” (:13)

Double Dip Recession-

CUT 6 “Our forecast does not have a double dip recession. But when you are at one-point-nine percent or one-point-eight percent GDP growth on a quarterly bases it certainly brings up those kinds of questions. (:14) And although it’s not technically a recession when you’re growing a point, a point and a half potential. It just feels like things are slow.“ (:22)

National Economy-

CUT 7 “Actually a little bit better growth than the first half of the year. It starts to pick up and it goes over the two percent range. But it’s still below potential GDP, which is really the big issue. (:11) People are looking at this and saying how long can the ball roll slowly? Can it actually start to roll a little bit faster? Can we actually start to see a pick up? And if that were too happen you’d see larger pick up in terms of the number of new jobs.” (:26)