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"Commercial investment market: Racing towards record levels! Residential investment market: The C-cities have called a timeout, having witnessed the largest growth in investment across all city categories during the year to date."

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In view of the looming trade dispute between the USA and the EU, risks for the export-oriented German economy are increasing. Events have yet to impact the investment market for commercial and residential property (Table 1, Graph 1). In the long term, however, US trade policy may well prove to be a black swan for the German real estate market (see “Outlook for the German real estate market”).
In any case, most investors remain quite risk-averse. The top seven cities in particular witnessed increasing investment activity (Graph 5). In contrast, however, the number of transactions fell year on year (Graph 3). This indicates that investors are scarcely prepared to compromise when it comes to location. Therefore, high-value properties in established locations are likely to remain the most sought-after product across all sectors over the coming months.
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It almost appears that the German commercial investment market has achieved a fine balance. At least, that is how the sideways movement in key market indicators in recent months, including transaction volume (Graph 1, Table 1), the number of transactions and transaction size (Graph 3) as well as yields (Graph 6), could be interpreted.
The stability of this equilibrium remains to be seen over the coming months. Yields on 10-year US government bonds have recently been climbing towards 3%, which will potentially make these a genuine investment alternative to real estate again. We are also observing an increase in supply, particularly in terms of retail property. In any event, this scenario promises a continued high transaction volume.
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