Battleground Poll: Dead heat

This is a pleasant surprise, but not entirely unexpected. Obama was hurt by politicizing the Osama raid and his "war on women" by the GOP has blown up in his face.This is reflected in the fact that Obama's 5 point lead over Romney in February is now a one point deficit - 48-47. And the GOP in general is making a comeback as well.

The former Massachusetts governor has opened up a 10-point lead, 48 percent to 38 percent, among independents in a poll conducted Sunday, April 29 through Thursday, May 3 and a 6-point lead among those who describe themselves as "extremely likely" to vote in November. Obama led Romney by 9 points overall in POLITICO's February's poll.

But there are suggestions that these numbers are extremely fluid: Obama holds double-digit leads over the presumptive Republican nominee on issues such as who will better handle foreign policy and who will stand up for the middle class and on "sharing your values." But enduring concern about the economy -- by far the most important issue to voters -- keeps the president in a tenuous position despite employment numbers that show slight but steady improvement.

While approval of Congress remains in the basement at 13 percent, the poll shows that voters aren't inclined to throw all the bums out in another major push for change.

The GOP has taken a narrow 45 percent to 43 percent lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to the poll, and 65 percent believe Republicans will continue to control the House majority after the election. Forty-one percent believe Democrats will keep the Senate majority.

[...]

The president's job approval rating stands at 48 percent, down 5 points from February and a number now equal to the percentage of voters who disapprove of Obama's performance.

It's still very early but a couple of things to keep in mind. First, keeping Obama below 50% is key and as long as the president fails to poll a majority, his re-election will be in jeapordy.

Secondly, undecideds usually break for the challenger by large margins in the final days of a campaign. The closer Romney can stay, the better his chances going into the crucial final weeks of the race.

This is a pleasant surprise, but not entirely unexpected. Obama was hurt by politicizing the Osama raid and his "war on women" by the GOP has blown up in his face.

This is reflected in the fact that Obama's 5 point lead over Romney in February is now a one point deficit - 48-47. And the GOP in general is making a comeback as well.

The former Massachusetts governor has opened up a 10-point lead, 48 percent to 38 percent, among independents in a poll conducted Sunday, April 29 through Thursday, May 3 and a 6-point lead among those who describe themselves as "extremely likely" to vote in November. Obama led Romney by 9 points overall in POLITICO's February's poll.

But there are suggestions that these numbers are extremely fluid: Obama holds double-digit leads over the presumptive Republican nominee on issues such as who will better handle foreign policy and who will stand up for the middle class and on "sharing your values." But enduring concern about the economy -- by far the most important issue to voters -- keeps the president in a tenuous position despite employment numbers that show slight but steady improvement.

While approval of Congress remains in the basement at 13 percent, the poll shows that voters aren't inclined to throw all the bums out in another major push for change.

The GOP has taken a narrow 45 percent to 43 percent lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to the poll, and 65 percent believe Republicans will continue to control the House majority after the election. Forty-one percent believe Democrats will keep the Senate majority.

[...]

The president's job approval rating stands at 48 percent, down 5 points from February and a number now equal to the percentage of voters who disapprove of Obama's performance.

It's still very early but a couple of things to keep in mind. First, keeping Obama below 50% is key and as long as the president fails to poll a majority, his re-election will be in jeapordy.

Secondly, undecideds usually break for the challenger by large margins in the final days of a campaign. The closer Romney can stay, the better his chances going into the crucial final weeks of the race.