BMI View: Widespread insecurity and an uncertain political environment continue to weaken the production outlook in Sudan and South Sudan. Foreign appetite for investment in both countries has come under increased strain, and continued underinvestment in the sector threatens to push output into decline in the tail end of our 10-year forecast period. Repeated supply outages have severely undercut oil exports from South Sudan and this, alongside the sharp fall in global oil prices, will continue to erode revenues over the medium term.

Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2019)

2013e

2014e

2015f

2016f

2017f

2018f

2019f

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d

118.3

124.2

139.1

153.0

168.2

169.9

166.2

Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d

103.5

119.1

126.2

127.5

128.8

129.4

130.0

Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d

94.5

122.9

129.0

135.5

140.9

146.5

150.9

Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2013 - 2019)

2013

2014e

2015f

2016f

2017f

2018f

2019f

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d

135.0

155.3

178.5

223.2

279.0

306.9

322.2

Refined products consumption, 000b/d

40.0

40.4

41.2

44.4

46.9

49.5

52.2

The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan's oil and gas sectors are:

Exploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An uncertain political and security environment, combined with major capex claw backs across the industry, will see limited investment in new exploration across our forecast period.

Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of factors are at play here, including the lack of major discoveries to be brought online, rapid depletion rates at...

The Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

Key Benefits

Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas market.

Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

BMI View: Widespread insecurity and an uncertain political environment continue to weaken the production outlook in Sudan and South Sudan. Foreign appetite for investment in both countries has come under increased strain, and continued underinvestment in the sector threatens to push output into decline in the tail end of our 10-year forecast period. Repeated supply outages have severely undercut oil exports from South Sudan and this, alongside the sharp fall in global oil prices, will continue to erode revenues over the medium term.

Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2013-2019)

2013e

2014e

2015f

2016f

2017f

2018f

2019f

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d

118.3

124.2

139.1

153.0

168.2

169.9

166.2

Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d

103.5

119.1

126.2

127.5

128.8

129.4

130.0

Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d

94.5

122.9

129.0

135.5

140.9

146.5

150.9

Headline Forecasts (South Sudan 2013 - 2019)

2013

2014e

2015f

2016f

2017f

2018f

2019f

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d

135.0

155.3

178.5

223.2

279.0

306.9

322.2

Refined products consumption, 000b/d

40.0

40.4

41.2

44.4

46.9

49.5

52.2

The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan's oil and gas sectors are:

Exploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An uncertain political and security environment, combined with major capex claw backs across the industry, will see limited investment in new exploration across our forecast period.

Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of factors are at play here, including the lack of major discoveries to be brought online, rapid depletion rates at producing fields, widespread damage to infrastructure, faltering investment and a lack of wider foreign participation.

Refined fuels production will fail to keep pace with the strong rise in consumption, triggering a mounting dependency on refined fuels imports in both Sudan and South Sudan. Refineries in both countries will struggle to maintain competitiveness against their global peers, due to falling domestic crude production, limited economies of scale and a lack of appetite in new downstream investments.

Export revenues are at risk of sustained decline, both in line with falling domestic crude output and a sharp drop in global oil prices. Increased competition in Sudan and South Sudan's key Asian export markets also threatens further downward price pressures, over the longer term.