Down To Earth

Editorial. Sunita Narain.
II. XII. XIV

US-China climate deal: Maker
or

breaker?

by Sunita
Narain

In my previous
article I wrote that India should demand an
ambitious climate change deal, because we need the
world to stay safe—below the guardrail of
2°C rise in temperature. I also said that for
the deal to be effective, it is necessary to
ensure that every country has the right to
development but within the planetary limits. In
other words, we must operationalise equity, a
prerequisite for global cooperation on climate
change.

But at times a week can
be a long time for international negotiations that
have been stuck for 20 years. Last week, the US
and China signed a bilateral agreement to cut
greenhouse gas emissions. Western commentators
have been ecstatic, lauding the deal as both
historic and ambitious. With China in the bag,
India is the target. It is already painted as the
bad boy in climate change negotiations. The
question on the minds of US-based journalists and
NGOs is: when will India agree to cut its
emissions?

As I said, a week can be
a long time in climate change negotiations. While
the world has not been able to operationalise
equity for the past 20 years, US President Barack
Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping did it at
one stroke. They operationalised equity, but in a
way that will take us all to a sure
catastrophe.

How? My colleagues have
done some number crunching on the US-China deal.
Under this agreement, the US has agreed to take
domestic actions so that it will reduce its
greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent below
the 2005 levels by 2025. China has agreed that it
will peak its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and
then start reducing it. It has also agreed to
raise the share of non-fossil fuels to 20 per cent
of its primary energy mix by 2030. Time for a loud
hurrah? Not so fast.

First, what this means
is that the US and China have agreed to
“equalise” their emissions by 2030.
Both countries would have “equal” per
capita emissions in 2030. The US would reduce
emissions marginally from its current 18 tonnes
per capita and China would increase from its
current seven-eight tonnes. Both the polluters
would converge at 12-14 tonnes per person per
year. This is when the planet can effectively
absorb and naturally cleanse emissions not more
than two tonnes per person per year.

In fact, the cake is
carved up in such a manner that each country would
occupy equal atmospheric space by 2030. We know
that countries have a cumulative share of
emissions in the atmosphere. The US-China deal
makes it clear that both the countries
individually get 16 per cent of the atmospheric
space by 2030.

The problem is that the
occupier gets it all. This deal has defined equity
as good for the US and China, but bad for the
planet. At this level of emissions, the world will
definitely cross the 2°C mark and go towards
4-5°C, unless India, Brazil, South Africa and
all the rest of the emerging world stop their
emissions right now.

This is now the next
move. In the well-orchestrated media and NGO
campaign, pressure is being put on India and the
rest to forego their right to development. They
must act, says the pack. The US and China together
have shown the way.

So, what should India
do? Going by the US-China deal, India needs to do
nothing. Its current per capita emissions are 1.8
tonnes and by 2030, under the business-as-usual
scenario, it will be 4 tonnes—nowhere close
to that of the US and China. Between 2011 and
2030, China will take over 25 per cent of the
remaining carbon space; US will occupy 11 per cent
more and India only 7 per cent more. So, unless
the Indian government wants to tell its people
they are second-class citizens of the world, it
should start occupying more. In other words, post
the US-China agreement, India should be
accelerating its growth so that it can catch
up.

Clearly, this is not
what we should do as it is not in our interest to
blow up the world. But equally (this is really
difficult to explain to the US-based media and
NGOs) it is not in our interest to believe that
the US-China deal is good for the world. It sets
the world on a dangerous path where all countries
will want their right to pollute. It is in our
interest to demand that the US and China must
reduce emissions at the scale and pace needed to
ensure that the world stays below the danger mark.
It is in our interest to demand that we will all
accept limits, but based on equity.

PS: I
say this with great sadness but I know that my
words will not be read or understood by the many
US-based journalists who have been calling to ask
why India is not as “responsible” as
US and China.