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You’ll glimpse an upturn if you don’t look back

David Wighton: Business Editor’s Commentary

September 4 2009, 1:00am, The Times

Economists often get their timing a bit wrong, but it was particularly unfortunate for the number crunchers over at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development yesterday. Less than half an hour before they issued their latest forecast on the UK economy, their prediction appeared to be flatly contradicted by Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the services sector.

The OECD sages believe that prospects for the UK, alone among the G7 group of industrialised nations, have worsened since they last pronounced on the matter in June. The OECD, which three months ago had expected the British economy to contract by 4.3 per cent during 2009, now expects a shrinkage of 4.7 per cent. That is mainly a reflection of the UK’s GDP data for…