Picking & Grinning: Strikeforce ‘Diaz vs. Cyborg’

Jordan Breen: Diaz-Santos is one of the most straight
forward major fights in quite some time. There's no way around the
fact that there is guaranteed action; it's difficult to imagine the
fight playing out in any kind of blase fashion. However, based on
Diaz's incredible chin and recovery, "Cyborg" would need to turn in
an absolutely brilliant striking performance, with follow-up on the
ground, to wrest the title from Diaz. What's more likely is that
Diaz and Santos brawl for a solid two to three minutes, "Cyborg"
gets winded, and Diaz assumes control the way we've seen in his
bouts against Zaromskis, Smith, and others, and the 209's favorite
son rolls to another title defense.

Tony Loiseleur: If there's a way to fight the Diaz brothers,
it's likely best executed with a wrestler having good submission
defense that will take them down and mash with short punches and
elbows to get the decision. Since elbows are sadly illegal in
Strikeforce, and since this is Santos we're talking about here, I
sincerely doubt that Mr. Cyborg will try to take that route since
it's just not in his DNA. His modus operandi is to swing
blistering strikes with evil intent, whether that be charging
forward and doing so or sitting back to counter until he finds his
opening. I'll be interested to see if the slimmed down -- but
probably still bigger -- Santos can chop away at Diaz's legs over
the course of five rounds, but whichever route Santos takes here, I
think Diaz can survive to rack up his devastating pawing punches
until Cyborg is thoroughly marked up. Diaz by decision.

Freddie DeFreitas: Santos' penchant for toe-to-toe exchanges
plays right into the strength of the Strikeforce champion.Â
Diaz has made many so-called “outstanding” strikers fold like
proverbial lawn chairs under a storm of muppet-slaps; he'll
literally pity-pat you to death from within the pocket -- just ask
Frank
Shamrock or Scott
Smith.Â Diaz takes this one by TKO in the second
round.

Guilherme Pinheiro: The only way I see Cyborg winning this
is if he opens one of those old cuts in Diaz’s face. Diaz is more
technical both on the ground and standing up. That doesn’t mean
there won’t be rough times for him, though. Cyborg is as aggressive
of a fighter as there is. He’s going to charge from the opening
bell and Diaz will have very little time to adjust and find his
range. He’ll take some hits until he starts to use his reach to
keep Cyborg away. Once he does that, we’ll get a vintage
performance from Diaz, who’ll use his volume punching to win all
five rounds on his way to a dominant unanimous decision win.

Tomasz Marciniak: I can't see a way in which Cyborg wins
this fight as Diaz is ultra-durable and his boxing style will
exploit Cyborg's open muay Thai-style guard. The Brazilian has
powerful low kicks, but I can't see him winning with that attack
alone. Diaz is going to tirelessly throw hundreds of punches in
every round running away with the fight on the scorecards, and I
fancy a late stoppage by the Californian because Cyborg's cardio
might not be up to 25-minute fight standards.

Todd Martin: When the second biggest win of your career is
over Makoto
Takimoto and you have 13 losses, you probably don’t merit a
shot at a major title. Diaz is a better striker than Cyborg and
worlds better than him on the ground. Cyborg’s only chance is if
Diaz didn’t take his preparation seriously.

Tristen Critchfield: Lawler is one of the most heavy-handed
strikers in the game today, but he has proven vulnerable to
submissions in the past.Â Souza will take advantage of his
opponent’s fatal flaw. While Lawler is looking for an opening to
land a kill shot, Jacare will strike. Souza by submission in the
third round.

Rob King: Lawler obviously only needs to land one heavy shot
and follow that up and he can claim the title from Jacare. Souza
wants to get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible.
Jake
Shields showed everyone how to beat Lawler quickly, and look
for Souza to use that template; Souza to survive some heavy blows
and lock up a submission late in the first.

Lutfi Sariahmed: This title bout should be more competitive
than the welterweight battle. Jacare is the better fighter. His
jiu-jitsu is second to none and his striking game is such that he
can pose Lawler problems, if not win a bout where he avoids
Lawler's power game. But Lawler's power is what has made him so
successful: "Jacare" needs to take him down relatively quickly to
avoid any potential firefight. Remember the Shields fight too --
Lawler's aggressiveness cost him. I'll take "Jacare" by submission
in round two.

Brian Knapp: If Lawler can stay off his back, he has a clear
path to victory. Despite his otherworldly submission skills, Souza
still has a suspect chin. That could be a recipe for disaster for
Jacare, who can really establish himself as an elite middleweight
with a win here. Give me Lawler by knockout.

DeFreitas: Prangley is the perfect matchup for Gracie at
this stage of his career.Â I think Prangley may have issues
with Gracie's reach and will instinctively go right to his
wrestling and take the fight to the mat and into Gracie's
world.Â Gracie should have little trouble wrapping up an arm
or the neck of the South African for his fourth consecutive win by
submission.

Loiseleur: If only MMA could earn the kind of commitment
Gracie has given to his pursuit of jiu-jitsu, he'd have likely
become one of the greats of this generation of the sport.
Unfortunately, it's still more lucrative for him to compete in and
teach BJJ, and thus the pressing need for him to fight just isn't
there. Prangley is a step up from Yuki Kondo and
Kevin
Randleman, and I'm interested in seeing if he can actually put
his hands on the grappling phenom. However, even if he does, I
still think that Gracie will lock on an impressive submission from
any position regardless of who presses or doesn't press for
takedowns. Gracie will tap Prangley out eventually.

Marciniak: The one thing that stood out in Gracie's fight
with Randleman was that the American did everything he could to
avoid clinching up with the decorated grappler. If Prangley comes
out with that same cautious gampelan, I see him getting jabbed
endlessly by the taller fighter and either losing on points or
having to change up and actually go for the clinch. Prangley can
generate some power but he is not an immediate KO threat like
Lawler, so Gracie should be able to turn the clinch to his
advantage as well and slip in to a dominant position from which he
will tap his opponent out.

Pinheiro: I really like this fight. Gracie’s grappling
prowess makes him a factor in any fight. On the other hand, albeit
showing signs of slowing down recently, Prangley is still a solid
fighter who will give us a good measure of where Gracie is in his
MMA development. While his stand-up is not nearly as good as his
ground game, Gracie has shown constant improvement in that area. I
believe he’s good enough to avoid taking big shots and, most
importantly, to find the right moment to close the distance and
take the fight to where he is most comfortable. In the end, I think
Gracie’s ground game is just too much for Prangley to overcome.
I’ll go with Gracie by third-round submission.

Martin: It’s commendable that Scott Carson returned to MMA
competition at the age of 40 after a nine year absence. But he’s
being brought in to lose to Herschel Walker and with their
respective athletic pedigrees that’s a result very likely to
occur.

Critchfield: Who runs a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at 48-years
old? For that matter, who does it at 28? Walker’s age-defying feats
continue to amaze, and it doesn’t appear that Strikeforce is quite
ready to have him face defeat. Carson might be more of an obstacle
than Greg
Nagy, but he competed (and lost) for the first time in nine
years last June. Walker by decision.

King: In terms of in-ring experience over the last nine
years, Walker has actually been in action three times longer than
Carson has. I am assuming that Strikeforce picked Carson for a
reason as Walker's opponent, and that reason is to get Walker
another victory in the cage and continue to get as much as they can
out of the former Heisman winner. Walker via stoppage in the
second.

Knapp: Who knows how long the Herschel Walker experiment
will last. Even at 48, he will carry into the cage the kind of
athleticism few others in MMA possess. I'm guessing Carson fares
only slightly better than Greg Nagy, but Walker takes a one-sided
decision.

Sariahmed: I'm relatively certain there's a rule that says
camps can't go undefeated on a fight card (assuming they have more
than one fighter on the bill, of course). Herschel Walker isn't
losing to Scott Carson which of course means Lawson will beat
Keslar. Flawless logic.

Loiseleur: Reckless as Lawson may be in giving his away
submission opportunities, so long as he can hang on for the first
round I don't think Keslar will catch him. I'm seeing Lawson being
persistent with winging punches and takedown attempts to wear
Keslar down to take the latter two rounds for a decision.

Jordan Breen: Keslar is a good athlete, but doesn't have any
individually outstanding skills. If he can keep Lawson from taking
him down, he has the ability to tire him out and be an effective
dirty boxer. However, Lawson is likely to get a couple takedowns
and a bit of ground-and-pound it. It's very possible to see a
couple of rounds with both men imposing their style of offense,
making for a tough call for the judges. I favor Lawson due to his
top position skills, but this is one of the most evenly matched
bouts on the bill.

Pinheiro: This is the perfect rebound fight for Lawson. He
had a five-fight winning streak surprisingly halted by Wayne
Phillips in his bout. As for Keslar, I don’t think he has much
to offer. I expect Lawson to impose his grappling game and pick up
a submission win in the very first frame of this bout.

King: Lawson has a wikipedia page, and Keslar does not. That
tells me all I need to know right there: Lawson via submission.

Jordan Breen: Both Coy and Moore have legit wrestling
backgrounds and good camps behind them. However, Coy's wrestling
has proven more dominant in MMA thus far, and he nearly tipped over
the apple cart on Tyron Woodley last year. Woodley is a superior
wrestler to Moore, and Moore's striking, though decent, is not
threatening enough to make Coy tentative and ineffective as a
wrestler. Coy has the ability to dominate position and land strikes
of his own en route to a decision.

Marciniak: Coy is a real sturdy wrestler and won't be taken
advantage of by the submission-savvy Moore. I think Coy will clinch
and dirty box along the fence and grind Moore down en route to a
decision win.

DeFreitas: I give the edge to Moore on the feet and Coy will
undoubtedly want to make this a wrestling match.Â Coy should
be able to control this fight on the ground and make Moore work
from his back for virtually the entire 15 minutes -- Coy by
unanimous decision.

Critchfield: Both Coy and Moore have wrestling pedigrees,
but Coy’s resume, with wins over Mike Pierce
and Rick
Story, is more impressive. Moore’s two defeats have come by KO,
which puts his chin into question. Coy wins by ground-and-pound in
the second or third round.