Speaking of Iraq...

...I keep waiting to hear something from our friend Bill, who surely has some thoughts on all this. He said he wanted to be there when they turned out the lights, and with good luck, it seems he might be!

Instead, all we get are jokes about Scottish cattle. (In the comments to which, Bill has already given his comeback line: "Joke? *What* joke?")

8 comments:

My guess is that the light's were already being dimmed two months before we (meaning us mercenary 'Structor Pilots at the flight school) left. However, I'll keep my thoughts on the strategic disadvantages of giving supreme negotiating powers to well-educated-but-essentially-clueless gummint bureaucrats to myself for the nonce.

Meantime, I'm OCONUS again, learning to be polite in the local language while in trainup mode for my next gig. And -- mirabile dictu -- nobody here wants me dead.

Hmm, I'd been waiting to hear your take, Grim. When I first heard, I was seething. Hugh Hewitt had an interesting interview with NYT John Burns, formerly Baghdad Bureau Chief for five years (and an old hand), which was interesting, and left a sliver of hope to hang onto. Wouldn't mind opinions about that either. One thing I'm pretty sure of is that things could have been handled better over the past three years.

My take, Douglas, is that this whole set of negotiations has worked off the following dynamic:

1) Essentially all the Iraqi factions (aside from the Sadrist Trend) know that it would be wiser to find a way to ask us to stay.

2) Deep down, though, they really need to know that they are free.

For that reason, there's been a long, winding discussion in which the various Iraqi factions have tried to find a way to talk themselves into doing what they know to be the wise, careful thing. Finally, though, they just can't: their heart lies on the other path.

The factions got to this point by different roads. Some of the factions hate us and want us gone, but fear for what will come after. Others like us, or appreciate the stability that we provide, but want to be genuinely independent and sovereign. Others don't really believe we'll go, because they harbor a suspicion that all this talk about "sovereignty" is a ploy for us turning them into a puppet state. They need to see us leave to prove to themselves whether or not they are really free.

So we'll go, and we'll see what happens. They may at some point ask us back, once they have developed confidence in the proposition that we will leave again if asked. They may find ways to take responsibility for the divisions they still have internally, and develop compromises that they haven't dared to while we've been there to hold down the stakes.

We'll see. It befits a free people, though, to want to try. I think we should respect that fact, and honor the choice they are making.

I suppose it's largely that I see the current administration as so inept, that I worry that they've screwed the pooch on this, rather than understanding that the Iraqis just need this fledglings flight to see what happens. At least, I hope that you're correct. We certainly had our struggles to get things right after we obtained our independence, they ought be entitled to theirs, if it comes to that.

Are you concerned about Iran there- wait, no, of course you are- in what ways are you concerned about Iran in Iraq's future once we're 'gone'?

One major concern to me is the Kurds. Can they see this through without feeling like there's too much risk, or will they feel compelled to re-assess the idea of an independent Kurdish state without the stability we've provided?

My guess is that the Kurds will be more comfortable with their current status as an autonomous region -- at least for the foreseeable future. It allows them the continued freedom to influence the political scene in Kirkuk, which is not only their historical capitol but the site of the second-largest superfield in Iraq.

And Kirkuk is *outside* their present borders.

If they opt for full-blown independence, they lose the revenues from the leases in the superfield they've negotiated with the central government. Geologically, the Kurds are sitting on top of an arm of that superfield, but aside from one or two "proven" sites, about the only natural resources they have within their present boundaries are water, gum trees, and scenery...

As I hear a little more here and elsewhere, while I'm not about to stop worrying, there seems to still be enough to continue to hope for the best. I pray for the future of Iraq and it's people- there's so much riding on what happens to them. Let us hope they find their way.