Late round upside: Shoot for the moon after the 10th

After the 10th round in PPR drafts, things get interesting. We start seeing players from all over what’s left of the draft board being drafted, and at this point we see the rankings not matter as much. Starting in the 11th round, I try to pick players who have the most upside and have a chance, if everything goes their way, to become a guy who can be a reliable starter on my fantasy team, or at least be able to put up some big weeks right from the jump so that they become trade bait. There are a few exceptions, but most players at this point don’t have a reliable floor, so I want to try to shoot for players with the highest ceiling.

Jamaal Williams – 11.06

The Packers are currently saying that Ty Montgomery will be the team’s starting running back. But are the Packers really going to give him all of the rushing work? I highly doubt that. Montgomery only had 77 carries last year, and had a very hefty 5.9 yards per carry. There are a few reasons I can’t extrapolate his rushing success if I gave him 200+ carries. Once James Starks and Eddie Lacy went down, the Packers basically stopped running the ball, and passed it on almost every down. Montgomery was also a beneficiary of that decision, racking up 44 receptions for 348 yards. Because the Packers were passing it on almost every down, defenses stopped playing the run. Not only that, but when Aaron Rodgers is the QB of a team that’s barely running the ball, you stop worrying about the run. Now, to Montgomery’s credit, Pro Football Focus rated Montgomery as the most elusive RB in 2016, but I don’t think that would translate once he has a heavier workload and the offense becomes a bit more balanced.

The Packers loved a bruiser like Eddie Lacy, and he was very effective for them. Lacy had 284 and 246 carries in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Ty Montgomery doesn’t run that way, and I don’t think they would allow him to get that many carries; he only had more than 10 carries one time last year; they had to keep defenses honest. His specialty is catching the ball, so I would assume he would be in on passing situations and on 3rd down. Montgomery is working on his pass protection skills this offseason, but he’s not there yet. Depending on how he improves, we may or may not see him in all passing situations. All of this explaining results in why we should draft Jamaal Williams in the 11th round. This is obviously a very potent offense that will score a ton of points and will have a ton of red zone opportunities. In those 2013 and 2014 years, Lacy had 11 and 9 TDs, respectively. I don’t think Montgomery will get those goal line chances, because that’s just not his specialty. Williams runs like a bruiser and can get those tough yards after contact. He’s a one-cut back who fits well in this zone blocking scheme. Not only that, but I believe that Williams ends the year with more carries than Montgomery, and with defenses primarily focused on Rodgers and the passing game, I think Williams can end the year with some decent numbers, and possibly fall into the RB2 range, strictly based on opportunity.

Josh Doctson – 12.08

Josh Doctson is a very talented wide receiver. He was out for his rookie year last year with an Achilles injury after being drafted in the first round, but is poised to take on a starting role this season. He is currently battling Ryan Grant for Pierre Garcon’s vacant role as the Z receiver, but as long as he’s healthy, he should be the guy once he’s fully integrated with the offense. He has great hands and knows how to grab the ball at its highest point, so it’s possible that he gives Terrelle Pryor and Jordan Reed some competition for red zone targets. I think Doctson is the most talented wide receiver on this team when it comes to route running and actual skills as a wide receiver. There’s no doubt that Pryor is an athletic freak, but his route running can use a lot of work. This offense can produce very relevant wide receivers; last year Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon both hit 1000 yards, and Crowder almost hit the mark as well. Three receivers are on the field most of the time for the Redskins, and rarely do they have only two on the field. With more than 200 targets up for grabs, I expect Doctson and his talent to shine in this offense if given the opportunity. He’s a great late round grab, and has a decent amount of upside in a great offense that lost a few of its playmakers.

Robert Woods – 13.07

Robert Woods is a very talented receiver on an offense who didn’t pass the ball enough in Buffalo. He was the #2 option most of his career, and his upside was capped the last two years once the Bills became a run-heavy team; they were 32nd and 31st in passing attempts the last two years. Woods was an early second round pick in 2013, and he has turned into a good route runner with deceptive quickness. He now comes into a situation with the Rams where he will likely lead the Rams with 100+ targets.The Rams lost Kenny Britt, who turned 111 targets into 1000 yards last season, and I think it’s safe to assume that most of those targets, if not more, will go Woods’ way. Who else is going to get those targets? I’m very interested to see how the Rams use Tavon Austin now that Jeff Fisher is gone, but I think he’ll still be used as more of a gadget player. Rookie WR Kooper Cupp will likely be on the field a ton this year, but I think Jared Goff will depend on a veteran like Woods to help him out as much as possible. Woods and Jared Goff are putting in extra work in OTAs to build that rapport, and even in a bad offense, the #1 wide receiver on this team will have enough opportunity to be fantasy relevant, especially in PPR. He doesn’t have ridiculous upside, but he should be solid.

Tedd Ginn Jr – 14.05

I’ll play him while the Saints are at home every time. They lost Cooks, who is without a doubt a superior talent to Ginn, but Ginn can still outrun secondaries with the best of them. Two years ago, Ginn had 10 touchdowns with Cam Newton, and even dropped a couple. We all remember those long bombs Cam would throw to Ginn, and I think Brees can do the same thing with him. Ginn can still provide a lot as the deep threat in this incredible passing offense, especially inside a dome. In the 14th round, I’m taking a flier on Ginn as someone who you can plug in your starting lineup when your players are on a bye or you need a fill-in. I’d be more confident and would like the upside of him to catch a long touchdown from Drew Brees compared to someone who you hope will get 5 catches for 70 yards off the waiver wire. Brees is already impressed with Ginn in OTAs, and I think they can have a good connection. He’s also a good guy to have on your roster to add a bit of upside to a team that has a bunch of solid, consistent players. I think Ginn is being very underrated in drafts, especially because there are 117 targets to fill after Brandin Cooks’ departure. With Michael Thomas, Willie Snead, and the addition of Tedd Ginn, I think Brees will be just fine.

Kenny Stills – 14.09

Kenny Stills caught a TD in each of the last 4 regular season games, and 7 out of the last 10, and ended up with 9 TDs on the year. He didn’t have any multi-touchdown games, so he’s been very consistent throughout the season; there was only one two-game stretch in which he didn’t score a TD. Many of his touchdowns were big plays, but he’s the big play receiver in this offense. There were a few plays where Tannehill and Matt Moore were looking for him for touchdowns while inside the 30 yard line. I do expect this offense to take a step forward, so his receptions and yards can come up as well, while his touchdowns can possibly regress. He’s a talented receiver who just got paid, and with a 14th round pick, he’s the type of guy to take a flier on in case he breaks out; if he doesn’t, you didn’t risk anything.