The final report, along with information about the NYCEM project, is available
at http://nycem.org

Detailed building inventories were gathered for the areas shaded on this
Tri-State region map, which also shows the epicenter of the 1884 M5.2 event

While natural disasters such as earthquakes cannot be avoided, there are
ways to improve safety, minimize loss and injury, and increase public awareness
of the risks involved. One of the most effective ways to lessen the impact
of natural disasters on people and property is through risk assessment and
mitigation – which was the topic of a study to document the scale and
extent of damage and disruption caused by a hypothetical earthquake in the
NY-NJ-CT region.

MCEER assembled a team of experts to address this problem under the umbrella
name NYCEM – The New York City Area Consortium for Earthquake Loss
Mitigation. The NYCEM group brought together academic researchers, industry
practitioners and government emergency management officials for the first
time to address a specific threat facing the Tri-State area. Conducted over
a four-year period (1999-2003), the results, documented in the final report,
provide a picture of the number of injuries and casualties, damage to critical
facilities such as hospitals, police stations, and fire stations, and the
amount of debris likely to be generated.

Using different magnitude scenarios, M5, M6, and M7 at a historic epicenter
(the M5.2 earthquake that struck New York City in 1884) and different probabilistic
scenarios, with 100-, 500- and 2500- year return periods, the researchers
described some key findings:

Building and Income: The combination of building damage and income
loss were used to estimate total losses. A moderate M5 quake at the 1884
historic site would cost nearly $5 billion; and a M6 and M7 event at this
site would cost about $40 billion and $200 billion, respectively. The total
for 9/11 was $98 billion. Long-term annualized building-related earthquake
losses are estimated to be about $0.2 billion per year. This does not include
losses from damage to the infrastructure.

Hospitalization: Hospital functionality would most likely be adequate,
except for an M7 event, which would cause double the injuries of 9/11 and
require 26% more beds than available.

Shelter Required: In all scenarios, an earthquake could be expected
to lead to homelessness and dislocation; in M5, M6 or M7 quakes, nearly
3,000, 200,000 or 770,000 people, respectively, could be expected to need
shelter.

Fires: Although the number and location of fire stations in
Manhattan seem adequate for all events, for larger events (>M6), at
least 900 fires could break out, which may require more water than would
be available.

Buildings Damaged: A M6 or M7 quake at the historic 1884 site could
completely damage as many as 2,600, or 12,800 buildings, respectively.
The most vulnerable areas in Manhattan, due to soft soil and construction
type, would be Chinatown and the Upper East Side. Unreinforced masonry
is the most vulnerable, most common construction type.

Debris: An M5 quake would generate 1.6 million tons of debris (comparable
to 9/11); a M6 and M7 quake would generate about 40 and 132 million tons,
respectively.

Lives Lost: A moderate M6 earthquake at 2:00 pm at the historic site
could be expected to cause about 1,200 deaths. The greatest concentration
of fatalities would occur in the New York City metro area, and in larger
events, fatalities would increase proportionately.

Overall, the researchers determined that given the area’s historic
seismicity, population density, and vulnerability of the region’s built
environment, it is clear that even a moderate earthquake would have significant
impact on the lives and economy of the Tri-State region.