The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves
slowly westward or west-northwestward well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

...KIKO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14
the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -120.1
with movement W at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 966 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 150216
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019
...KIKO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 120.1W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 120.1 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two. A slightly slower
motion toward the west-northwest is forecast by Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by Monday, but Kiko
is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength for the next
couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150216
TCDEP3
Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019
Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24
hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt
higher than last night's estimate at the same time. The hurricane
briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the
eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall
convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance.
The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and
objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt.
There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the
short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of
the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the
shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or
so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength
through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is
quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong
SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast,
it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it
moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also
forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also
become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the
warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show
gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the
intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north
of the latest NHC forecast.
The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a
motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge
should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward
speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between
the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the
ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and
UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such
weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through
mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this
point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of
models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and
remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say,
confidence in the forecast is quite low.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky