Hard-hit areas may give Dem incumbents a pass

In a year when voters are angry about the economy and ready to oust incumbents, Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley would seem to be in big trouble - her Las Vegas-area district is the most economically stressed in the country, with soaring unemployment, bankruptcy and foreclosure rates.

But she and most other House members who represent areas with huge numbers of lost jobs appear to be in little danger of losing their own during this election cycle. Just the opposite: Incumbents from the nation's most economically-resilient regions are the ones in trouble.

An Associated Press analysis of foreclosures, bankruptcies and unemployment figures shows that of the more than 100 races that will determine whether Republicans gain control of the House, only a few are in areas with the most extreme levels of economic stress.

In New Hampshire, for instance, polls have Republican challenger Frank Guinta ahead of Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter even though the state's unemployment is 5.5 percent, well below the national rate of 9.6 percent. The state's other House race is tight despite New Hampshire's relative prosperity.

Across the country, California has a bankruptcy rate twice as high as New Hampshire's, along with much higher unemployment. But only a few of its 53 congressional races are competitive.

Rep. Bob Filner, a Democrat who has been in office since 1993 and represents a California district that runs Mexico's border from suburban San Diego to the Arizona line, is heavily favored for re-election, drawing much of his support from hard-hit Imperial County, which is saddled with the nation's highest unemployment rate: 30.4 percent in August.

Richard Flowers, a retired power-plant operator who was born and raised in Imperial County, remembers voting only once for a Republican - Richard Nixon for president in 1968. Filner hasn't impressed him much, but Flowers voted absentee to give the congressman a 10th term, arguing that Republicans may make the economy worse.

"Obama's been in office two years, and he's being blamed for not saying, 'Abracadabra, everything's perfect,' " Flowers said at Burgers & Beer in El Centro, the county seat. "Sometimes, the devil you don't know is worse."

The AP's rough analysis of congressional-district health indicated that the 20 districts with the worst economic conditions are in California, Nevada or Michigan. Two of the districts are competitive. The 20 districts with the best conditions are predominantly in the Midwest. Seven of them have competitive races.

Then there's Berkley, the Nevada congresswoman who has spent 10 years representing a portion of Las Vegas.

Her Republican challenger, Kenneth Wegner, is trying for a third time to oust her from Congress. Wegner said he believes all political leaders should be ousted from office.