Saturday, October 29, 2011

WPIAL Playoff Outlook

With the conclusion of high school football action tonight, only a handful of games remain tomorrow afternoon to close out the WPIAL regular season. All 64 playoff spots across the four classes have been accounted for, and only one conference title remains to be decided - the Allegheny Conference in AA. Thanks to Ford City's 14-13 defeat of Burrell, the Freeport Yellow Jackets have a chance to claim the conference title outright with a win over Summit Academy (thanks to a head-to-head victory over Shady Side Academy). Shady Side Academy beat Deer Lakes to finish their season at 6-1 in the conference and will win the Allegheny Conference crown if Summit Academy beats Freeport.

Here's a look at the final order of finish for each conference. We also throw out our predictions as to how the playoffs will be seeded. The top 2 teams from each conference are seeded 1-8 and get to play first round games at home. No teams from the same conference can play in the first round.

The Selection Show for the playoffs is Monday night at 7. I'll have another post next week previewing the actual matchups after they are announced.

Predicted Playoff Seeding
1. Central Catholic - The best team in AAAA all season
2. North Allegheny - The defending state champs have the talent to do it again
3. Upper St Clair - Their only loss was a 28-21 defeat at North Allegheny, which was the only game they scored less than 41 points
4. Penn-Trafford - The least heralded of the conference champs beat Gateway by 2 and McKeesport by 4 behind a solid line and good rushing attack
5. Gateway - Only a last-second field goal by the best kicker in WPIAL kept them from a conference crown
6. Erie McDowell - RB Greg Garmon is one of the best in the state
7. Mt. Lebanon - The loss to AAA Hopewell and dismantling by Upper St Clair drops their seed
8. Penn Hills - After a 1-4 start, they come into the playoffs hot having won 4 in a row
9. Seneca Valley - The best passing offense in WPIAL gets a tough draw against a Top 10 defense.
10. Woodland Hills - The Wolverines limp into the playoffs losing their last 2 to non-conference Pine-Richland and rival Penn Hills
11. McKeesport - Their head-to-head loss to Seneca Valley hurts them in the seedings but they are dangerous enough to make noise
12. Shaler - The Titans limp into the playoffs having lost their last 3 but a head-to-head win over Bethel gives them the seeding advantage
13. Bethel Park - They've been underwhelming all year but could surprise in the playoffs
14. Fox Chapel - They have a Pitt recruit on the O-line
15. Peters Twp - A win over Baldwin in Week 7 got them in
16. Connellsville - After going 1-8 and getting blown out of the water in conference play last year, they make the playoffs thanks to a 17-16 win over Hempfield two weeks ago

Conference Most Likely To Sweep the First Round: Northern SevenConference Most Likely to Get Swept out in the First Round: Great Southern

Predicted Playoff Seeding
1. Central Valley - The defending champs went undefeated and did it in the best conference in WPIAL
2. Knoch - The Knights finished their first undefeated season in school history
3. West Mifflin - A loss to Trinity is the only mar on their record
4. Montour - Two losses in the tough Parkway Conference is nothing to sneeze at
5. Franklin Regional - Statistically, the best offense and defense in AAA but they play in its worst conference
6. Thomas Jefferson - Hard to put them this low, considering 2 of their losses were to Quad-A teams
7. Indiana - The Little Indians have a dangerous offense and could cause problems
8. Ringgold - They got blown out by Franklin Regional and aren't as good as their record indicates
9. Hopewell - Rushel Shell gets to continue his pursuit of the state rushing record
10. West Allegheny - The Parkway Conference's 4th place team could easily make Heinz Field
11. Highlands - The Golden Rams get an unlucky draw against traditional powerhouse TJ
12. Chartiers Valley - The Mustangs have struggled since Wayne Capers got hurt against TJ
13. Greensburg Salem - They put up a ton of points in AAA's worst conference
14. Mars - The usually high-powered Planets have been underwhelming this year
15. Belle Vernon - A 27-26 victory over Trinity in Week 3 got them into the playoffs
16. Laurel Highlands - Another team that was 1-8 and in the cellar last year that sneaks into the playoffs

Conference Most Likely To Sweep the First Round: ParkwayConference Most Likely to Get Swept out in the First Round: Keystone

Yep, the 3 teams were 1-1 against each other. Gardner Points (strength of victory) were equal so it went to Tiebreaker Points (based on margin of victory). Monessen +45, California +42, Frazier +33, so Monessen got the #2 spot then it went back to head-to-head between Cal and Frazier and Cal beat Frazer so Cal got the #3 spot.

Monessen has been on the decline these last few weeks though. Pretty unimpressive since North Catholic beat them.

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