Asia, the FSU to lead global ammonia capacity contributions by 2023, says GlobalData

GLOBAL ammonia capacity is poised to see considerable growth over the next five years, potentially increasing from 233.85 million tonnes per annum, mtpa, in 2018 to 280.36 mtpa in 2023, registering a total growth of 20%, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The company’s report, ‘Global Ammonia Industry Outlook to 2023 – Capacity and Capital Expenditure Forecasts with Details of All Active and Planned Plants’ reveals that around 99 planned and announced plants are scheduled to come online, predominantly in Asia and the Middle East, over the next five years.

Ammonia capacity in Asia is expected to increase from 109.65 mtpa in 2018 to 123.22 mtpa in 2023, at an average annual growth rate, AAGR, of 2.3%. Among the countries in the region, China’s capacity will reach 74.99 mtpa by 2023. Major capacity addition will be from the plant, Shandong Lianmeng Chemical Group Shouguang Ammonia Plant, with a capacity of 1.65 mtpa by 2023.

GlobalData identifies the Former Soviet Union, FSU, as the second highest in terms of ammonia capacity contribution in the global ammonia industry. It is expected to increase from 30.82 mtpa in 2018 to 37.65 mtpa in 2023, at an AAGR of 4.0%. Most ammonia capacity contributions are in Russia, with capacity of around 24.59 mtpa. Major capacity contribution will be from the plant, Novomoskovsk Azot Novomoskovsk Ammonia Plant, with a capacity of 1.84 mtpa by 2023.

Within the Middle East, ammonia capacity is expected to increase from 20.12 mtpa in 2018 to 30.05 mtpa in 2023, at an AAGR of 8.0%. Among countries, Iran’s capacity will reach 13.12 mtpa by 2023. Major capacity contribution will be from the plant, FALAT RCF GSFC JV Chabahar Ammonia Plant, with a capacity of 1.05 mtpa by 2023.

Dayanand Kharade, Petrochemicals analyst at GlobalData, said: “Asia will continue to be a major contributor, accounting for 44% of global ammonia capacity in 2023. Within Asia, China will account for almost three-fourths of Asia’s capacity in 2023.”

Ammonia capacity in North America is expected to increase from 27.23 mtpa in 2018 to 31.16 mtpa in 2023, at an AAGR of 2.7%. The US is forecast to be the top country in the region with capacity additions of 22.64 mtpa by 2023. Major capacity contributions will be from the plant, Nutrien Kenai Ammonia Plant, with a capacity of 1.25 mtpa.

Europe follows among the global regions in terms of ammonia capacity contributions and it is expected to remain at 21.23 mtpa from 2018 to 2023. Germany leads in Europe, contributing around 3.48 mtpa by 2023.

Dangote Group, Nagarjuna Fertilisers and Chemicals Ltd, and Nakhodka Fertiliser Plant are the top three companies globally in terms of planned capacity additions over the outlook period.

The report also states that the three highest planned and announced global ammonia capacity addition plants in the forecast period are Nakhodka Fertilizer Plant Nakhodka Ammonia Plant in Russia, Maaden Waad Al-Shamal Phosphate Company Ras Al Khair Ammonia Plant 2 in Saudi Arabia, and FALAT RCF GSFC JV Chabahar Ammonia Plant in Iran with capacities of 1.80 mtpa, 1.10 mtpa and 1.05 mtpa, respectively.

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