The Numbers Game (Warriors 108, Wolves 109)

On Monday afternoon the Warriors lost to the worst team in the NBA. To my eyes, however, the Ws’ play was not much better or worse than in a few of the narrow wins over the last two weeks. Depending upon how you see the proverbial glass, that either makes this loss easier to take or the previous wins less comforting. Simply put, the Warriors have been playing with a very small margin for error. They made another strong run in the final 5 minutes of Monday’s game against the Wolves, but had dug themselves too deep a whole at the end of the third and beginning of the fourth to recover. When it comes to putting away a bad team or letting them hang around, you can tell a lot from the numbers.

Before getting into the nuts and bolts, the disclaimers:

The sky isn’t going to cave in because the Wolves beat us. If anything, this could be a blessing in disguise by finally shocking the Warriors into confronting some of the problems that have been growing within their style of play. This team still has an excellent record and is playing better than it has in past. Unfortunately, records don’t exist in a vacuum. When it comes to our success, fans — and the players — should be judging the team against their peers. These wins count as much as those in April and the other top 8 teams in the West are plowing ahead just as strong or stronger than the Warriors. This situation should be sparking a sense of urgency. So far, I haven’t seen that urgency consistently manifested in the team’s play.

A big part of Monday’s loss was at the defensive end. In the first half the Warriors packed the key and were quick to roll down onto Jefferson. This resulted in little daylight for the Wolves’ biggest offensive threat but plenty of open looks for Gomes. After halftime, the Warriors seemed to reverse their defensive emphasis. They stayed with the shooters and left Jefferson more time to operate under single coverage (often only Harrington fronting him). Jefferson got it rolling offensively, even as the Wolves began to struggle from outside. As I’ll discuss below, the Warriors let the Wolves have more high percentage shots to close the game, adjusting the defense to overcompensate for the lesser threat: the Wolves’ outside shooting.

There were bright-spots in the loss. Matt Barnes looks like his old self, including the bad pass or two every game. He was active on defense and the boards. He contributed some nice opportunistic points. His energy kept the Warriors going, even when it was lacking from others. Beyond Barnes, Nelson also received nice bench contributions from Azubuike and Watson. Despite a limited Pietrus (flu), Nelson worked a deeper rotation in the first half, resulting in lower minutes for the usual suspects. Finally, Monta continued to look unstoppable at times. I’d still like it if he were a bit more assertive, but that will come. Right now, it’s just fun to sit back and watch during the 4-5 minute stretches when he finds his groove.

There were lots of things that went wrong against the Wolves, but the biggest one comes down to shot selection. The Warriors were so successful last season (and at times this season) because they can be far more than a three point shooting team. They have three players with above-average driving ability (Davis, Ellis, Azubuike), at least one man gifted with getting to the line (Jackson), and one of the best pick-and-roll options in the NBA (Biedrins). Despite these options, the Warriors often looks for the easy way out in crucial possessions, opting for the quick (and usually guarded) three rather than a higher percentage shot obtained through penetration or ball-movement. Whether you blame it on lack of discipline, fatigue, or coaching, the Warriors seemed content at the end of the third quarter and beginning of the fourth on Monday to settle for what the Wolves would give them. The Ws hit some of the shots, as they did during the unsuccessful run to close the game, but over the course of a season the numbers are bound to catch up with them. Monday was one of those moments.

The Warriors average 27.7 three point attempts a game. In the win on Saturday against the Bucks they took 24 threes. In Friday’s win against the Bulls they took 29. In Monday’s loss to the Wolves they took 32. The Warriors can still win games taking a lot of threes, but as they take a higher percentage of shots from lower percentage territory, their success becomes more dependent on the fragile variables of basketball: hot hands and tired legs. When the team’s offense is more volatile, it becomes harder to string consistent runs together and to put away bad teams. As a result, the Warriors get hot for a few minutes, but then let teams back into games. We’ve seen it countless times this season. In most of these games the Warriors proved good enough to pull out a win despite the back-and-forth. However, after a four-game road trip, heavy minutes for starters, and a Baron Davis movie premier, the team simply couldn’t muster enough Monday afternoon.

The silver lining to this unraveling of the high-quality basketball we saw last spring is that it’s reversible. So long as Nelson works to give the bench some minutes, fatigue doesn’t need to be an issue. He’s shown a willingness in the two games since Chicago to deepen the depth chart. If the team has relatively fresh legs, discipline becomes the central concern. The Warriors need to play with enough focus to consistently work for high percentage shots. They cannot settle – whether it’s Baron, Jax, Harrington, Pietrus, Barnes, or Azubuike – for the contested three when a higher percentage shot could be available with a bit more work. The change needs to start with those leading the team: Davis, Jackson, and Nelson. In terms of motivation, the Western Conference standings provide all that a mature, forward-looking team should need. The Warriors are 7 games over .500 but sitting a half-game away from falling out of the playoffs. It took a non-stop run of 25 games to make the playoffs last year. The 06-07 team stepped up to the challenge with consistently intense play. In 07-08, it looks like it’s going to take a 40 game run. I just hope this team understands what’s at stake with these games before it’s too late.