Is Maleficent part of a franchise? Yes and no. Original properties (such as they are these days) often have better legs than sequels, which are usually front-loaded. Maleficentis no original property, but it’s also not connected to a previous movie in a way that is limiting. Which means it could do $160 domestic, or it could do $260 Million all in. Ultimately the success of the movie reflects that this summer has been teenage boy-driven so far, and this is the only movie that seemed more for women and younger children. I would guess it does in the two hundred million range, and might not be crippled by How to Train Your Dragon 2, as that is also male-centric.

Seth MacFarlane got to make a starring vehicle for himself after the success of Ted. He may get to do the same after the success of Ted 2. Even though this is something of a bomb MacFarlane is going nowhere, though Universal may be able to manage a follow up to his lead work with more control. A Million Ways to Die in the Westwill probably get to fifty domestic, but that’s about it.

The big takeaway from this summer so far: Opening over $90 Million is no guarantee that your film will make $200 Million domestic. X-Mensailed past $100 Million in its four day, and it may limp past $200 Million all in domestic. Godzillamay not make it to $200, and Spider-Man is likely to just make it there. But that’s where international is taking over, as all but Godzilla have substantially larger worldwide numbers.

Reality Check: I went a little low on Maleficentand a little high on West. The big disappointment is how hard X-Menfell. That’s gotta hurt.

Damon worked in the film business as a Film Buyer for a theater chain for many years, which gives him an interesting perspective on the numbers. He's written for Collider, Chud, Screencrush, The DVD Journal and Binaryflix online, and was published by The New York Times and Willamette Week, along with his college, high school and middle school papers.