Russia’s New National Strategy

Amid the ongoing crisis over Ukraine, the Kremlin has adopted a new national strategy that crystallizes trends that have been gaining ground in Russia over the past two years. This development goes beyond the current crisis in Russian-Western relations and has important consequences for Russia’s neighbors, especially the EU.

Essentially, the Kremlin sees Russia’s future as separate from the rest of Europe’s. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal for a Greater Europe stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok, cold-shouldered by many in the EU, has now been finally withdrawn by its author. Instead, Russia will largely rely on its own resources as it seeks to develop its economy, consolidate its political system, and build a strong military.

Russia’s development model will not be autarkic, but neither will it rely too much on exploiting the fruits of globalization. Recent sanctions against it have taught Moscow that these fruits can suddenly grow sour. Instead, Russia will be in the business of import substitution industrialization, promoting domestic agricultural production, and seeking to create a measure of financial autonomy.

The defense industry has long been designated the prime vehicle of industrial and technological innovation. Its main mission, however, will be completing Russia’s military modernization by equipping the country’s armed forces with a wide range of usable instruments of power, both for home defense and force projection.

Confrontation with the West—especially over economic sanctions and information warfare against Russia—has given Russian patriotism a powerful boost. Now, Moscow’s task at hand is to consolidate the bulk of Russian society on the basis of this platform, thus cementing national unity. Those few who disagree would be putting themselves beyond the pale as foreign agents.

Positive national consolidation will be achieved through the Kremlin’s promotion of traditional values. These include the overriding importance of the state; moral and spiritual guidance provided by established religious organizations, with the Orthodox Church playing a salient role; the sanctity of the traditional family; and peaceful cohabitation of different ethnic groups throughout the country.

Crimea, in this context, is simultaneously a symbol of Russia’s national unity across ideological divides and a sign of the country’s newly discovered capacity to push back against its competitors. Once reintegrated into Russia, Crimea will not be abandoned under any circumstances. To make this absolutely clear, the Russian military garrison on the peninsula is being beefed up. NATO, which is now positioning its forces closer to the Russian border, is again designated as a likely adversary.

In pursuing its new foreign policy, Russia will be firm but patient and cautious. Moscow's agricultural countersanctions against the West have hit a number of Central and Eastern European countries hard. At the same time, Russia will continue to avoid an open armed conflict with the United States and NATO, particularly in Ukraine.

Russia should not be expected to give up on Ukraine, but it can and will change tactics and strategy in its long game there. Moscow may shift its attention from the insurgency in the east to more political issues, in view of Ukraine’s forthcoming parliamentary elections, and economic priorities, as winter approaches.

Globally, Moscow will be building alliances with non-Western countries to diminish U.S. hegemony. China stands out as a premier partner, with Russia supplying it with more energy and more advanced military technology, while seeking cash and investment in return. India, Brazil, Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, among others, are also being eyed by Moscow with enhanced interest.

Russia is joining forces with the non-West, but it will not seek to undercut the United States in the areas where U.S. actions do not harm Russian interests, for example, in Afghanistan or Iraq. Unlike in the wake of 9/11, however, Moscow—while having no sympathy whatsoever for Islamist extremists—will point its finger at Washington’s policies as the root cause of regional instability from Libya to Iraq.

Russia will also feel free to withdraw from international treaties and agreements if it concludes that they no longer serve its national interests. In particular, this may apply to the 1987 U.S.-Soviet Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned both countries from having a whole class of missile systems, but left the rest of the world free to arm itself with them. Likewise, Russian participation in the European Court of Human Rights is in danger: Moscow considers the court to be too politicized. Neither decision has been taken yet, but warnings have been served.

Moscow is not completely ignoring Europe, but its European connection has been downgraded more severely than any other relationship. The Russians have been bitterly disappointed by the EU twice in the past six months. First, by France, Germany, and Poland failing to uphold the February 21 agreement they had brokered in Kiev between Viktor Yanukovych and the Ukrainian opposition. Second, by the EU aligning itself with the United States and imposing sectoral sanctions against Russia following the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which both America and Europe blamed on Russia even in the absence of irrefutable evidence.

Given all this, the Kremlin will have even less reason than before to abstain from reaching out to individual EU member states: European unity today means Europe’s solidarity with the United States against Moscow. At the same time, it knows that Europe wants an end to violence in Ukraine more than Kiev’s military victory there. It further understands that the Europeans would want some cooperation with the Russians on Ukraine, as early as this coming winter. This promises a lively relationship, even if a highly transactional and competitive one.

I fully subscribe to this analysis but I do not believe that what we have now represents a new crystalized foreign policy. It is rather an emotional and not thought through reaction to the Western latest attitude towards Russia. Therefore, in my view, it still can change to the previous doctrine once the situation around Ukraine changes for the better. I wish to be more optimistic.

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PG

August 23, 20145:42 pm

A very clear, relevant summary of the actual geopolitical landscape free of tiresome spin. This is an accurate current position going forward. It would behoove all foreign policy pundits and doyens to recalibrate their baseline givens if productive engagement is desired.

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Natividad Fernández Sola

August 23, 201410:55 pm

Under the current context, Europe is the victim. Russia and the rest of Europe are loosing its natural partner, its natural ally as neighbours.
After painful cold war years, it is clear that both can keep apart but the main beneficiaries of this are outside Europe.
Russia is a European country, perhaps not from a territorial point of view, but for a cultural and historical point of view. The rest of Europe has close relationship with Russia, a lot of exchanges, common interests... They are neighbours and a good neighbourhood is essential for development.
External alliances are disadvantageous for Russia and for West Europe as the weak part of them. This is why the disagreements are discretely supported from outside.
Nobody will win from a new era of confrontation.
The Western European countries should realize that Russia can not be mistreated from a political point of view and its interests should be taken into account. Russia has to think about the relationship with other European countries in terms of partnership and not of power or domination. Time for those concepts is out in the Old Continent.

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bajram

August 25, 20147:55 am

Russia's policy now openly opposes the European and the USA concerning the doctrines of "protection" from international terrorism. The rejection of the EU to have a "super-national state from Lisbon to Vladivostok" Russia and Putin forced to change their plans to strategically next to Europe. Now Europe is seen as a "sandwich" in international relations among major powers. The first reaction came with the refusal of Russia's missile bases in Poland and Romania, and secondly by the Ukrainian leadership retreat economic agreements with Russia. Fearing an apparent attack by NATO, to create a powerful "response" in the Middle East that away, she had to retake Crimea, "gift" to Ukraine by Khrushchev forgiven. Known sensational statements of generals and senior Russian was "proud" that the missiles that Moscow has in his arsenal can hit from the Crimea every point in the area of the Middle East, but also in the Mediterranean Sea, North Africa, Asia , etc.. Precisely this "strategy" Russia has already made an enemy of the West. Look at how Russia will react with the advent of "General Winter".

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SI

August 25, 201410:39 am

To those who oppose sanctions. Just think how horrible it is to feel yourself absolutely uncertain and unprotected when war is just 200km from your home, when you don't know if the place where you live will remain a part of your beloved country, when one country openly helps separatists with military equipment and live force and threatens to launch a full scale invasion, but no other country or organization in the world responds to your country's call for help. When you realize that no external help will arrive.
It's horrible, I live in such environment for 6 months and it's bad for mental health, I became very nervous and angry. It's like you're drowning, and people which you liked and wanted to be friends with, strong people, are gathering around and just watching. You don't blame them because it isn't their problem, you're not in their circle of collective protection, and you know that you potentially can pull them in should they extend a helping hand, but you feel bitterness and betrayal anyway.

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Vaughan

August 26, 201411:28 pm

Whether Russia is aware or not she has taken on the true leadership of the world. The US & EU have become rotten to the core because of unchecked abuse and obtuse leadership.
History will one day look back on this time and realise that Russia has rejected not only the EU & US's manipulative & aggressive machinations but, also their societal moral decadence that has perverted their political system, leaders and vision.
The 'West' has played so many dirty tricks with rancor they no longer know how to play 'a straight bat'.
They have become the enemy. The enemy of their own nightmares.
Russia will now have the chance to lead the world ahead. Whether she is ready for this huge task is yet to be seen. But, the US has not only missed a turn she has lost the board and the dice to the game.

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