The race – no pun intended – has already begun. As this year's ceremony comes to an end, we're glancing ahead to the films that may well shape the Oscars in 2017.

Of course, there will inevitably be huge changes between now and then: few saw Mad Max as a likely Academy Awards contender this time last year, and Brooklyndidn't look like a sure thing either. But with that in mind, let's look at the contenders already in the frame…

Directed, written by and starring Beyond The Lights actor Nate Parker, this is a blistering account of the 1831 slave revolt in Virginia. Parker plays Nat Turner, the leader of the movement, and Hammer is the conflicted plantation owner caught up in events. This debuted at Sundance, sparking a studio bidding war (Fox Searchlight bought it for a record $17.5m) and immediate Oscar buzz. Unless something utterly mad happens, Oscars will not be so white next year.

SILENCE

Director: Martin Scorsese

Starring: Liam Neeson, Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver

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Martin Scorsese has been trying to make this since about 1991, so given that the Academy likes to reward superhuman effort, this could be a contender. It's the story of Jesuit priests who ventured into the closed kingdom of Japan during the 17th century, and saw their fellow Christians facing torture and martyrdom in a crackdown on the faith. Liam Neeson stars, possibly with a very particular set of skills.

Kenneth Longergan has built a reputation as one of those directors who may not be prolific, but whose films are always worth a look. Five years after the excellent but little-seen Margaret, he's back with a family drama that came out of Sundance riding a wave of acclaim, particularly for Affleck (who replaced Matt Damon) and Williams. Whether it will be in the Best Picture race remains to be seen, but don't be surprised to see those two up for acting gongs.

THE LIGHT BETWEEN OCEANS

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Director: Derek Cianfrance

Starring: Michael Fassbender, Alicia Vikander, Rachel Weisz

It's adapted from a best-selling novel by a director with previous Oscar-magnetic form (Blue Valentine), plus features a double Oscar nominee (Fassbender) and two previous winners (Vikander, Weisz). Which would be a pretty great start for any film. But the heartbreaking subject matter – a lighthouse keeper and his wife adopt a foundling baby, and then meet a woman who may be the child's devastated mother – should give it that push over the top.

In The Martian's spot next year – the intelligent sci-fi blockbuster that garnered enough critical acclaim to land a nomination – we could well see this Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt story. He plays a passenger on a colony ship who is accidentally awakened early in the 60-year voyage, so he decides to wake someone else to keep him company. The Academy loves his choice (Lawrence) and Pratt himself is so-hot-right-now that that should give this a visibility boost - while director Morten Tyldum, coming off The Imitation Game after his excellent Headhunters, seems like the type to make the story work.

Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger succeeded in landing US Airways flight 1549 on the Hudson River in January 2009, becoming a national hero in the process. But with Clint Eastwood directing Tom Hanks in the biopic, this sounds like a magnet for little gold statues. Hanks is one of the best actors there is - so casually brilliant that his performances in Captain Phillips and Bridge Of Spies have had far less acclaim than they deserve. But maybe if he gets his feet wet this time the Academy will give him another gong.

Damien Chazelle's last film was 2015's blistering Whiplash. He's bringing back his Oscar-winning star, JK Simmons, for this Los Angeles-set musical love story. And he's reuniting Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling to once again dazzle us with their Crazy, Stupid, Love chemistry. She's an actress, he's a jazz pianist: together there will be songs and dancing. And, just occasionally, the Academy loves a bit of that (think Chicago).

Malick has had slightly inconsistent form of late, seesawing between the highs of Tree Of Life... and the lows of Knight Of Cups. But just take a look at that cast! This story of two intersecting love triangles amid the world of the music scene in Austin, TX, would have to be pretty awful for that cast not to make it compelling – and Malick doesn't actually make awful films. Not even To The Wonder.

An adaptation of Michael Hasting's non-fiction book The Operators, about the US leaders of the war in Afghanistan, this is being pitched as a comedy-drama, which may hurt its Oscar chances. But Animal Kingdom director Michôd is much admired, and this could be the film that introduces him to the Hollywood mainstream – especially with Pitt as producer and star. The big worry is the fact that it's coming from Netflix: will Hollywood's old guard close ranks against it like they did with Beasts Of No Nation?