MLB DFS 7/31/18 Ben’s Building Blocks

Trevor Bauer (-158): Trevor Bauer is having a breakout season for the Indians, like we here at DFS Karma predicted prior to the season, partly due to his new-look slider. Bauer leads this slate in SIERA and strikeout rate, and it’s clear that he is the class of Tuesday night, which definitely plays into his price of $13,300 on DraftKings and $11,800 on FanDuel. It all comes down to roster construction and whether or not you can jam Bauer in while feeling comfortable with your bats. I’m not scared of the Twins offense whatsoever at this point, so if you can fit him in go for it.

Masahiro Tanaka (-320): Welcome to Chalk Zone! If you remember that cartoon, do tweet at me because I know I can’t be the only real one that does. Tanaka is going to be massively owned against the Orioles, especially coming off a vintage Tanaka game in his last outing hurling a CGSO while striking out 9 Rays. Tanaka is striking out righties at a 27% rate and he should see six-seven RHH tonight. I love Tanaka, and was loyal to him when all of you weren’t, but it’s always hard for me to roster him as chalk. I think he is playable in all formats, but I may end up looking elshwere if the ownership gets out of control.

Mid Tier

Jon Gray(-101): So, I will go out on a limb and say that if the ownership does in fact get out of hand, I prefer Gray to Tanaka tonight. I’m not sure if that’s a hot take or not…but, here we are. Gray has been extremely unlucky this season, but don’t tell that to Bud Black because he might ship him off to the minors again for no reason! Gray’s SIERA sits at 3.23 compared to a 5.16 ERA, and he’s been even better than that since coming back up from the minors… maybe the bad luck is reverting? Hmmmmmm. Anyways, he’s striking out righties 26% of the time and should see six of them tonight. If this is the case, I’ll take the savings and ownership and go Gray.

I also like Trevor Cahill in this tier, and will dissect him on the livestream.

Low Tier

Homer Bailey(+108): I can’t believe it’s almost August of 2018 and I’m writing up Homer Bailey, yet here we are. After coming off the DL before his last start, Bailey’s velocity was up big-time sitting at a 95 average fast ball velocity, quite a difference from his season-average of 93. He also threw a whopping 115 pitches demonstrating how long his leash is. Now, that’s only one start, but the added velocity looks like it could be legit and Bailey is basically free at his price in a matchup with the lowly Detroit Tigers offense. The Tigers rank dead-last in wRC+ as a team over the last 30 days (68) and just traded their leadoff hitter about an hour or so ago. I don’t know how high Bailey’s upside is, but you aren’t paying for upside at this price. He is definitely in play as an SP2 tonight and has a strong chance to meet value.

Note: The weather does look bad in Detroit, so monitor the situation.

Batters

Top Tier: Rhys Hoskins- My man Hoskins has been locked and loaded at the plate since coming out of the All-Star break. Over the last 14 days, he owns a 53% hard contact rate with 47% fly balls…and now gets to face-off with Drew Pomeranz. Pom is pretty bad overall against righties, and while Hoskins power hasn’t been there against lefties this season he has still owns a 121 wRC+. He doubled twice last night and I can see that trend continuing tonight.

Mid Tier: Michael Brantley-I try to avoid listing people at the same position in this section, but Brantley’s price is getting a little bit too low on DraftKings at $4,300. I’ve talked about Kyle Gibson and the changes he’s made this season, he has been good for the Twins and I’m not knocking that, he still is allowing above-average hard-contact to lefties and that plays right into Brantley’s strength. The Indians buzzsaw offense is in another solid spot tonight so I’m all for getting some cheaper exposure.

Low Tier: Tim Anderson-I can see Anderson becoming a popular cash game play at Shortstop tonight finding his way into the leadoff spot for the White Sox against Danny Duffy. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but 38% hard hits and 43% fly balls will get the job done against Duffy, who has been better recently but his SIERA still sits at 4.25 over the last 30 days.

Tournament Stack of the Day

Philadelphia Phillies-Judging by my top batter today, you could probably guess where I was going with my favorite stack! Pomeranz is the exact type of pitcher I like to stack against in DFS, he allows a ton of walks (12% walk rate) and allows 2.41 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. With Pom’s tendency to allow free passes, those solo shots turn into two/three run homers and that could be why he has allowed four or more runs in each of this last four starts. We mainly want the righties here, so that puts Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco and Asdrubal Cabrera to the top of my list.