The set-up: UCF is 6-2 and eligible for a bowl, but 3-5 Houston has its work cut out for it here as it lays everything on the line over the last month to get the job done. The Cougars looked good though against No. 16 SMU last week, despite eventually falling 34-31. Houston averages 30.9 PPG, but it allows 31.1. QB Clayton Tune is finally starting to look better though after having to fill in for injured starter D'Eriq King.

The pick: UCF comes in off a 62-21 blowout win over Temple and I think it comes in a tiny bit complacent here vs. its lowly opponent. The Knights average 46.6 PPG and they allow 21.6. Clearly on paper QB Dillon Gabriel and the UCF have a signficant advantage, but note that the Knights are a terrible 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite of 21.5 points or more. Conversely, note that the Cougars are a solid 4-2 ATS already this season as a dog and 3-0 ATS in their last three off a close loss by seven points or less vs. a conference rival. No outright, but grab the points and expect a competitive battle.

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