Down on the Farm – 2013 Offense

With the 2013 minor league seasons wrapped up, let’s look at the top offensive performances of the Reds minor league prospects. The data below is from baseball-reference.com.

The table summarizes the top 25 Reds minor league performers as ranked by OPS plus 5 additional players worth noting. The admittedly arbitrary cutoff that I used was players age 25 and below with at least 130 plate appearances. The level indicates the highest minor league level a player attained during the season. The position column indicates which position the player fielded the most. XBH is short-hand for extra-base hits.

Player

Age

Lev

Pos

G

PA

XBH

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

SB

SB%

Phillip Ervin

20

A

OF

46

200

21

25

34

.331

.425

.564

.989

14

93%

Jesse Winker*

19

A

OF

112

486

39

63

75

.281

.379

.463

.841

6

86%

Seth Mejias-Brean

22

A+

1B

130

558

50

55

83

.305

.379

.457

.837

4

67%

Kevin Garcia

20

Rk

OF

56

248

20

23

28

.309

.383

.447

.830

8

73%

Jose Ortiz

19

Rk

C

48

186

22

14

42

.262

.321

.494

.815

1

100%

Steve Selsky

23

AA

1B

123

493

39

47

99

.274

.367

.440

.807

9

69%

Juan Silva*

22

A+

OF

96

404

28

61

76

.271

.386

.414

.799

31

70%

Jon Matthews

22

A

OF

58

233

13

24

43

.281

.384

.397

.781

27

82%

Logan Uxa*

22

A+

1B

43

184

16

23

21

.266

.364

.416

.780

2

100%

Juan Silverio

22

AA

3B

128

536

54

11

109

.287

.305

.474

.778

5

42%

Jose Fernandez

19

Rk

OF

35

130

9

8

29

.284

.352

.422

.774

17

89%

Juan Duran

21

A+

OF

111

456

38

45

134

.251

.323

.450

.773

5

45%

Bryson Smith

24

AA

OF

60

238

16

20

33

.275

.363

.406

.769

2

50%

Kyle Waldrop*

21

A+

OF

129

540

57

32

121

.258

.304

.462

.766

20

71%

Avain Rachal

19

Rk

2B

53

233

11

41

39

.253

.397

.360

.757

6

75%

Daniel Pigott

23

A

OF

64

267

23

18

42

.280

.335

.423

.757

4

50%

Yorman Rodriguez

20

AA

OF

129

567

54

47

153

.259

.324

.427

.751

10

77%

Aristides Aquino

19

Rk

RF

62

282

30

12

63

.259

.298

.452

.750

5

56%

Donald Lutz*

24

AA

OF

65

255

23

19

56

.245

.318

.424

.741

4

80%

Junior Arias

21

A+

CF

125

520

45

18

132

.272

.305

.436

.741

60

75%

Neftali Soto

24

AAA

3B

118

495

36

26

103

.271

.313

.414

.727

3

75%

Josh Fellhauer*

25

AAA

OF

101

315

17

36

64

.267

.355

.359

.714

3

60%

Ronald Bueno#

20

Rk

SS

53

200

13

16

24

.280

.335

.377

.712

5

83%

Sammy Diaz#

22

A+

2B

78

338

14

35

35

.273

.357

.346

.703

8

73%

Tucker Barnhart#

22

AA

C

98

395

23

45

57

.260

.348

.348

.696

1

100%

Ryan LaMarre

24

AAA

OF

129

529

33

45

94

.245

.327

.368

.695

23

64%

Kevin Franklin

18

Rk

3B

45

196

16

13

53

.260

.326

.364

.691

1

50%

Cory Thompson

18

Rk

SS

48

212

11

10

30

.266

.341

.340

.682

3

43%

Henry Rodriguez#

23

AAA

2B

126

514

21

28

69

.274

.319

.335

.654

6

55%

Billy Hamilton#

22

AAA

OF

123

547

28

38

102

.256

.308

.343

.651

75

83%

At the top of the list is Phillip Ervin, the Reds first round draft pick in the 2013 draft. He signed quickly, and played both centerfield and rightfield mostly at Billings before a late season promotion to Dayton. Ervin hit very well in 200 plate appearances, displaying power, speed, and good control of the strike zone. It will be interesting to see how quickly the Reds decide to move him through the system.

Jesse Winker (1st round, 2012 draft) played leftfield for the Dayton Dragons all year and is a year younger than Ervin. He posted solid numbers across the board and should start the year in Bakersfield next year.

Seth Mejias-Brean (8th round, 2012 draft) also had a great year for Dayton (all but three of his games), splitting time between 1st base and 3rd base. Thirty-six of his extra base hits were doubles.

Kevin Garcia is a product of the Reds Dominican Summer League. Garcia has a .380 on-base percentage in 547 plate appearances over the past two seasons.

Rounding out the top of is 2012 17th round draft pick, Jose Ortiz. Ortiz has flashed power early in his professional career, hitting 28 extra base hits in 233 plate appearances.

There are two players who walked more than they struck out in 2013. Logan Uxa was drafted in the 32 round of the 2013 draft and played most of the season in Arizona except for a 3 game stint with the Bakersfield Blaze. Uxa had 16 extra-base hits in 154 at-bats, though only one of those hits was a homerun. Avain Rachal was a 22nd round pick from the 2012 draft and spent the entire 2013 season with Billings. He led all Reds minor leaguers with 18% of his plate appearances resulting in walks.

The bottom five on the list are noteworthy even though they fell out of the top 25 statistically. Kevin Franklin and Cory Thompson were drafted in the 2nd and 5th rounds of the 2013 draft, respectively. They signed quickly and played a lot of games (for June draftees.) Ryan LaMarre, Henry Rodriguez, and Billy Hamilton are players who could still provide impact at the major league level. And given the way he’s played in his September callup, Hamilton has a shot to make the Reds 2013 playoff roster.

35 thoughts on “Down on the Farm – 2013 Offense”

The concern is there isn’t anyone above the AA level that put up impressive offensive numbers.

If Hamilton’s .256 BA doesn’t concern, his .308 OBP should. His OBP high for the hear was .341 (May) followed by .337 (July). I’m concerned that he’s never going to hit enough to be an impact big leaguer. I hope I’m wrong.

I like Steve Selsky, but he failed at AA this year and had to go back to A+, he needs to make the big step next year if he’s going to help this team. Bryson Smith is someone else that’s worth keeping an eye on, as he just completed his second year of AA.

I wonder if the Reds will consider moving Mejias-Brean off of 1B, to see if he can play elsewhere?

I wonder if the Reds will consider moving Mejias-Brean off of 1B, to see if he can play elsewhere?

Mejias-Brean played exclusively @ 3B in 2012 at Billings & split time between 1B/3B in 2013 @ Dayton. During his very brief, end-of-the-season promotion to Bakersfield in 2013, Mejias-Brean played exclusively at 3B.

Mejias-Brean was drafted as a 3B and I believe his playing time at 1B was dictated more to accomodate playing time rather than his inability to play defensively at 3B. I believe the Reds plans for Mejias-Brean’s development will be as a 3B.

@Bill Lack: I don’t think you are wrong. But one thing to consider to give us both hope is that his OBP was over .400 in 2012, was .340 in 2011, and .383 in 2010 (albeit at lower levels, but I’m looking for anything here).

Yes, Hamilton definitely dropped a bit offensively in his year at AAA. Hopefully there’s a little “learning a new position” issue and he can focus on his offense next year.

Mejias-Brean played 79 games at 1st and 51 games at 3B. As Shchi said, it appears that was mostly to give starts to Rahier at 3rd base. I would expect Mejias-Brean to get promoted to Bakersfield and play 3rd base fulltime and Rahier to repeat Dayton.

I’m not as concerned with Hamilton’s results from this season. Remember, many were thinking he would start at AA anyhow. Starting at AAA, he was going to have a lot to learn. He most likely will start at AAA next season, unless he comes in like gangbusters in ST next season. We shouldn’t be counting on him for a full season yet, not until 2015, maybe contributing some the second half of next season.

I would go back and look every month or so at our minor leagues; did that for the last 2 seasons. It seemed like our batting was way down this season, but it seemed like our pitching was way up this season in general, at least compared to the season before. Any lists being developed for the pitchers like this one? I would love to see that, also.

In Cincinnati the team is set with the following players for a few more years:

1B – Votto (9 years)
2B – Phillips (4 years)
C – Mesoraco (and perhaps Hanigan if they extend him which I think they can do relatively cheaply) (4 Years)
SS – Cozart (4 Years)
RF – Bruce (4 Years)
UT – Frazier (4 Years)
5th OF – One of Heisey/Paul/Robinson (3-5 years)- (Paul is the best off the bench, Heisey is the best defender and best power, Robinson is the best athlete… who knows which if any they will keep.)

7 of 13 position player spots are locked up for the next 4 years. That leaves 6 spots to trickle available:

Needs:
CF: Hamilton/Heisey replace Choo. If Ervin turns into the player we think, in 2016 he takes over at CF and becomes the second coming of Andrew McCutchen.
LF: Jesse Winker replaces Ludwick in 2016.
4th: Hamilton/Silva replaces Heisey as the 4th OF. Juan Silva is quiet but very intriguing. I hope they don’t trade him but he, much like Gregorious, may have more value as a trade chip. 5th OFs are easy to come by and it is possible one of the three extra OFs the Reds have now will continue in that role… likely XP.

3B – While I am a certified Todd Frazier superfan, fact is I don’t trust his bat. He is solid at 3rd, but I think his position can be won by a better bat.
Possible answer? Seth Mejias-Brean provided his defense improves at 3rd. He’s got range, just makes a lot of errors.

C – I think Hanigan could be resigned for a few $2-3 Million a year for 3 years but that would make him 37 at the end of the contract. As much as we all like Hanigan we have to face facts. Resigning him would be a move from the heart, not the head. The Reds have two very nice options in Tucker Barnhart and Jose Ortiz waiting in the wings. Tucker, an ALL MINOR LEAGUE gold glover at Catcher could be the next Hanigan while athletic and offensive stud Ortiz might one day challenge that position.

In short, while I think the farm system is light with regards to hitting prospects, it can afford to be with the long contracts in Cincinnati. AAA and to some extent AA is extremely lacking. But the talents is coming up as it’s needed with the exception of next year. Hamilton is no substitute for Choo. The players to replace Bruce, Phillips, Cozart, and Frazier is probably still in Rookie ball or not been drafted yet.

@TC: I believe I agree with a lot of it. If not Choo in CF, we will have Heisey or hit the FA trail, I believe.

I think Frazier’s position could be taken now. I mean, I like his glove, just not enough bat for me. Todd’s strength with that I believe is what we are getting with what we are paying him. For, if there is a FA out there who could do the job, I just don’t think we would go after them. The same with Cozart.

Especially at C for me. I am a Hanigan and Devin fan. But, we can’t always wait for our “future” to be our “present”. Wait too long, our “future” becomes a never-was. I say we either commit to Hanigan and get some sub floating out there to back Hanigan up, like Corky or Nevin or Tucker or Olivo, and trade Devin while he has some trade value. Or, start Devin more and see if Hanigan will take a lesser role. If he doesn’t, you try to trade him, maybe, and bring in someone to backup Devin.

I believe Hamilton will start at AAA next season. They aren’t going to bring him up to ride the pine, not while there is still more he can learn. I can’t help thinking we aren’t going to see him be a bench player in the majors.

Ludwick might be gone after this season, probably after next season. I don’t see the Reds signing him back.

I’ve become a little skeptical of Hamilton this season. Based on what he does next year at the start of the year in AAA he could stay there all year and Heisey takes over in CF (not ideal), or he does well to start and comes up in May to take over in CF. That’s what I meant by Heisey/Hamilton. Hamilton won’t come up unless it’s to lead-off and play CF.

Ludwick is signed to a big contract through 2014 which a mutual $9M option for 2015. He is a FA in 2016. I don’t give it a good change that the Reds will pick his option. Regardless, in 2016 the Reds will not re-sign him. He will be 107 years old.

The problem is money… as always. Free Agency will be light for the Reds.

I think part of looking at a farm system is not so much who you have, but who you can get for them. We didn’t get Latos from the draft.

But I’d rather bring a kid up like Erwin and bite the bullet on his arb clock than spend another nickel trying to find still another part-time left fielder … or still another “Latin-speaking” backup utility infielder. (And FWIW, the “Latin-speaking” has nothing to do with it other than it has been sort of a trend over the last 4 years.)

In the draft, when you draft down in the mid to low 20’s, you just can never predict what players will be available and what might fall into your lap in that first round. Depending on the circumstances with Choo and Arroyo this offseason, the Reds might have two extra picks in the first round. One will undoubtedly be a pitcher, but I would hope the Reds pick a power hitting corner OF and INF (college or HS) with the other two picks. I’d like to see the Reds front office start stockpiling power hitting prospects suited for a ballpark like GABP. That is really the only criticism I have of the Reds drafts over the last few years.

@WVRedlegs: Choo may or may not render the Reds a compensation pick, but should net them a supplemental pick. The rules are a bit more confusing now that there aren’t Type A and B FAs anymore. I don’t think Arroyo will qualify to provide the Reds a pick. I could be wrong, but as I read the rules I don’t think he’ll qualify unless the Reds offer him arbitration. I don’t see them taking that chance.

You never know, but I think they will roll the dice with Arroyo and make him a qualifying offer. Either way its a gamble, unless you work something out in advance with him where he can help you get that pick. A wink-wink deal where the Reds make the qualifying offer knowing in advance that Arroyo will turn it down.
I need to re-read up on those newer rules.
Next year’s draft is being predicted to be very deep in the first few rounds in talent of position players. I hope the Reds will take full advantage of that.

@reaganspad: No one has “given up” on Hamilton. Don’t read it that way. I’m just not as high on him unless he gets his OBP back to where it was in the lower levels. If he can’t generate power, he needs to be able to get on base or his value is MUCH diminished.

No way I throw out the clock on Ervin. Let’s see what we get at the upper levels first.

I agree about Silva. He doesn’t get much play, but he is a very solid prospect.

I agree about a Bridge. Hopefully your 2 years are exaggerated and all the Reds needs is a bridge until May of 2014 when Hamilton has enough PAs in AAA to justify an early call-up. In the meantime, the current bridge is Heisey/XP/Robinson. This is a difficult position to be in. Perhaps the brass will figure the risk is too great.

1) I fear for what happens to Hamilton and his approach at the plate when Dusty gets his hands on the kid.

2) I like me some Hanigan, too, but next year is the time to make Mes the primary catcher, and I really do think Hanigan still has some trade value despite his down year hitting (which a strong finish could really make people forget). He could well be the throw in guy that makes a big offseason deal happen. If not… hey, glad to have him back! (As catcher #2.)

The Reds need to bite the bullet and jettison some excess baggage from the upper minors in order to provide proper evaluation of their prospects during 2014.

The rosters for the 2014 minor league affiliates should accommodate the players who still have prospect status rather than aging non-prospects:

AAA

Henry Rodriguez (.343/.396/.371) & Billy Hamilton (.283/.324/.367) demonstrated significant progress after the all star break, but Hamilton still needs additional development at AAA before he is major league ready. Rodriguez previously hit at every level except AAA and his 2nd half performance at the plate combined with his 1 error @ 2B & 1 error @ 3B during the final 2.5 months fully demonstrated that he is major league ready. Rodriguez needs to be on the Reds’ 25-man roster in 2014 or traded.

Marquez Smith is a career minor league IF (1B, 2B, 3B) with an .800+ OPS and average defense in 3 AAA seasons, but he’s never had a sniff at a big league roster. This is the level where the Reds position prospects (exceptions to Hamilton and Barnhart noted) start appearing and the level where previous position prospects have failed to produce.

If the Reds intend to be serious competitors in the future, their most promising future position prospects must continue to excel in A+, but I will match these prospects against anyone and take my chances.

Ludwick’s contract was for $1 million this year (plus $2mm bonus), $7.5 next year, and a $4.5mm buyout of the 2015 mutual option. I expect him to be elsewhere in 2015. I think he needs that one year to max out his pension, so he may sign on cheaply somewhere for a bench role.

I am in favor of moving Mesoraco to left, because I think that his upside as a hitter is enormous and that he will be more likely to reach it in left. I would rather have him for 540 ABs than 380 ABs. Others believe he is worth more as an offensive catcher, and that is a perfectly valid point of view. I would keep Hanigan (who defensively will be much in demand in 2015 by many clubs), and use Barnhart or a strong defensive catcher as the catching tandem next year, with Mes as a third option on occasion. To me, catching defense is way under-rated, and Hanigan is very good and hard to replace.

We will just have to see about Billy Hamilton. I think he projects as Willie Wilson more than anybody else, which will be a very good result. If they have to go with Heisey in center for two months until Hamilton is ready, then that will be fine.

I hate when there is 48+ hours between games, but I suppose the players welcome it now.

I know some speed-skeptics think that Billy Hamilton is one-dimensional, and a Willy Taveras or Corey Patterson waiting-to-happen. Hamilton, though, was a 3-sports guy in a small town in Mississippi, who couldn’t really do all the year-round baseball that a lot of guys now have. He isn’t only just fast, though, because he averaged 27 a game in basketball, and had a scholarship to play SEC football for Mississippi State. Unlike Taveras and Patterson, he is more than just fast, but also elite athletically.

Just skinny.

I think he will be fine. He’s had to learn a new position and learn to switch hit, and he’s pretty polished already as a basestealer (ask Molina).

I’d figure Hamilton is going to need an off season to try and build some strength and some more seasoning in AAA. I’d say if that goes well, he might be ready for the 2nd half next year.

I also figure Todd Frazier is the starting at third going into next season. The guy has been pretty good with the glove and really you only need him to improve his batting average like 10-15% and you are fine with what he does. I would definitely give him another season, while he has issues at the plate I don’t think they are completely insurmountable. The guy Frazier kind of reminds me of is Scott Brosius and I could see him having a similar career arc.

That said, I’d like to see the Reds develop Henry Rodriquez to perhaps become the utility player. Get him some reps at 3rd and in the outfield. Being he can hit and hits lefty, a guy that can cover middle infield and if he can learn to be adequate playing some outfield could be really handy.

@reaganspad: Sooner or later, you still want 2 top level catchers. Even if you give the job to Meso, you have to find another catcher, or push Barnhart harder. Otherwise, I remind everyone — Corky is our No. 3 catcher. Catchers are hard to find. If you can keep ‘em, keep ‘em.

@Johnu1: Given logic, you would want 2 top level at every position. But, money-wise, that wouldn’t be feasible for any team. As well as, I don’t believe the players would want to sign given those roles. Many sign with teams because it would be an opportunity to play everyday, to be “the man”, unless they were so small that their bodies simply don’t allow them to play everyday much over 100 games per year.

And, that’s just it. Hanigan’s frame is getting to the point. He can’t take much more than he is catching right now. Thus, my hope is he takes a step back and allows Devin to take the lead.

@Johnu1: Ryan Hanigan will be 34 years old and is 3rd year arbitration eligible for 2014. After his injury plagued season, Hanigan should get a small raise in arbitration. Hanigan will be 35 years old when he gains FA status in 2015 and Dusty should be gone after the 2014 season. A contract and playing time as a backup catcher for 2015 seems like a reasonable and viable option for Hanigan and I would think Cincinnati would be the best place for him as a backup catcher unless Hanigan wants multiple years, which might cause a problem for Cincinnati if multiple is more than two.