11/8 - 11/10 Plains/GL's System

Tom

Posted 06 November 2018 - 03:57 AM

Tom

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The 3rd, in what has been a series of storm systems to open up the month, is poised to lay down a widespread swath of snow across KS and parts of S NE/N MO on Thursday and eventually towards the GL's. This could end up becoming a surprise system in some places as the models have been trending a little better organized. While this system is not forecast to be a big one, it'll certainly provide the wintry flavor for many on here that have not seen the snow flakes fly.

jaster220

Posted 06 November 2018 - 06:10 AM

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LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

The 3rd, in what has been a series of storm systems to open up the month, is poised to lay down a widespread swath of snow across KS and parts of S NE/N MO on Thursday and eventually towards the GL's. This could end up becoming a surprise system in some places as the models have been trending a little better organized. While this system is not forecast to be a big one, it'll certainly provide the wintry flavor for many on here that have not seen the snow flakes fly.

Day time event and marginal temps. Looks like it could be little more than a car-topper-slopper here in SMI. LES possibilities over the weekend into next week appears to be the better chance for accumulating snows around SWMI. Interesting that the models now bring the truly cold stuff just in time to blow up an EC storm.

Tom

Posted 06 November 2018 - 06:25 AM

Tom

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LocationDes Plaines, IL

Day time event and marginal temps. Looks like it could be little more than a car-topper-slopper here in SMI. LES possibilities over the weekend into next week appears to be the better chance for accumulating snows around SWMI. Interesting that the models now bring the truly cold stuff just in time to blow up an EC storm.

I'm really curious to see how the LES potential sets up around the GL's and possibly into N IN later next week. This weekends set up looks marginal. The real deal cold hits early next week as the Polar Vortex crashes down across the Lakes.

advance of a deep upper trough digging our way from the Northern
Plains. A period of lake effect rain/snow looks to be likely from
Friday morning into Saturday. Given 850mb temps centered around
-10C, snow looks to be the dominant precipitation type. Snow
accumulations appear to be likely across Central and Western Lower
Michigan. Too early to nail down amounts at this point, but grassy
areas are likely to turn white, especially at night into the morning
hours when we will be colder.

Periodic bouts of additional lake effect rain/snow (mainly snow)
look likely from the weekend into early next week. A deep uppertrough will be in place with shortwaves rotating through increasing
lake effect precip. The forecast certainly has a winter flavor to it
with colder than normal temperatures and snow in the forecast.

Tom

Posted 06 November 2018 - 07:53 AM

Tom

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LocationDes Plaines, IL

Interesting trends so far this morning as the NAM/ICON both show a neg tilted trough amplifying instead of a lesser phased storm. This has been the highlight region where storms dig/deepen so its not a surprise that models are catching onto this idea. The Euro was the first to lead the way with this outcome.

jaster220

Posted 06 November 2018 - 08:37 AM

jaster220

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LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Interesting trends so far this morning as the NAM/ICON both show a neg tilted trough amplifying instead of a lesser phased storm. This has been the highlight region where storms dig/deepen so its not a surprise that models are catching onto this idea. The Euro was the first to lead the way with this outcome.

Esquimalt

Posted 06 November 2018 - 08:40 AM

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Interesting trends so far this morning as the NAM/ICON both show a neg tilted trough amplifying instead of a lesser phased storm. This has been the highlight region where storms dig/deepen so its not a surprise that models are catching onto this idea. The Euro was the first to lead the way with this outcome.

Yeah the NAM was showing snow down to lake level this morning in many places with temperatures just above freezing. I'm really hoping that this event can over perform. In other news, the 12Z GFS shows a snow bomb in Ottawa and montreal with around 20 inches falling in Montreal on the 13th. Just inane.

jaster220

Posted 06 November 2018 - 08:49 AM

jaster220

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LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Yeah the NAM was showing snow down to lake level this morning in many places with temperatures just above freezing. I'm really hoping that this event can over perform. In other news, the 12Z GFS shows a snow bomb in Ottawa and montreal with around 20 inches falling in Montreal on the 13th. Just inane.

My sis-in-law lives downtown Montreal. With that lifestyle tho, they don't have much use for snow-n-cold. Unfortunately, it makes for a long winter at times.

Madtown

bud2380

Posted 06 November 2018 - 11:31 AM

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Euro brings light snow into much of eastern Iowa Thursday night, but looks like an inch or less. Then the 2nd wave on Friday is further south than on the 00z run. At this point it is looking more and more likely that we will see accumulating snow on Thursday though for much of the sub, for some of us it will be the first accumulating snows.

bud2380

Posted 06 November 2018 - 02:39 PM

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The Friday clipper from DVN

Friday, a more consistent signal for a clipper moving into the area
is expected. This clipper is forecast to be north of H3 jet on the
cyclonic side. It will move across the area during the late
afternoon into the evening on Friday in time for the Friday commute.
Looking at a potential snow squall setup here as llvl CAPE, high RH
in the llvls, negative thetae lapse rates set up with this clipper.
In most setups, the thetae lapse rates would be more negative than
this one. Regardless the presence of CAPE suggests that the short
lived bursts of heavy snow are possible. The 12z GFS is the most
bullish of all models here. The ECMWF has the same signal just
further west in line with where it believe the H5 wave will move.
These forecast parameters will need to be watched by later shifts to
see if they hold up. Overall accumulation with this clipper willlikely be higher than the one in the morning, but still under 2
inches across the area.

CentralNebWeather

I'd say you're probably right here. Probably better to be early with this one due to time of year.

Just my 2 cents. I don’t have any evidence, but NWS Hastings has mentioned before in recent years, about the first snow event of a season and how when amounts are on the edge, they play it safe and issue an advisory.

CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 November 2018 - 05:32 PM

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After the snow on Thursday, our high on Friday is only 29 with wind chills much lower with a Friday night low of 11. My son and I are going to Lincoln for the Huskers vs. Illinois game Saturday. We better bundle up.

james1976

Posted 06 November 2018 - 05:59 PM

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Love this write-up from Des Moines. I 'bolded' some of my favs but the whole thing is a good read. Possible thundersnow!? It also includes a tidbit regarding the cold for next week but felt it was ok to post in this thread since it covers this system.

If you like winter weather, continue reading, otherwise you may want
to stop here. The area of high pressure will move across Iowa
Wednesday night into Thursday. That said, mid-level warm advectionwill develop quickly on the back side of the surface high,
leading to increasing clouds and gradual lowering of saturation
and cloud bases through the day. High temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s are expected, however, the theta-eadvection induced
forcing will leading precipitation developing. Once saturation in
the lower levels occurs, surface temperatures should cool into the
the low to mid 30s over southern and possibly central Iowa with
light snow developing. This light snow potential will lift
northeast Thursday night and may have snow accumulations less than
2 inches possible over mainly the southeast half of the forecast
area. An intense PV anomaly will move into Iowa on Friday from the
northwest. This system will feature the 1.5 PV surface lowering
to near 600 mb and low static stability along with low CAPE and
steepening mid-level lapse rates. This all leads to the potential
for convective snow showers with brief periods of thundersnow not
out of the question. This may result in a quick 1-2 inches of snow
with local higher amounts with the focus currently north of
Interstate 80. The other potential issue is the wind gustpotential due to the mixing and the potential convection. Wind
gusts over 30 mph are possible and combined with periods of snow
with visibilities at one half mile or less, may cause a travel
hazard. Will continue to monitor for potential winter weather
headlines. For now, continue to prefer the GFSsolution which has
been very consistent with the track of this feature. Very cold
Friday night withwind chill values approaching zero over northern
Iowa.

The current forecast for Saturday remains dry but mid level clouds
will increase again cannot discount a few flurries over the state
as weak forcing passes aloft. The upper leveltrough will deepen
Sunday night into Monday and will allow very cold air to spill
south into the Midwest. The 850 mb progs of -15C to -20C are
incredibly cold for this time of year. The current forecast highs
in the 30s may be too high and have too much climatology and bias
correction included in them and may have to be adjusted into the
20s if trends persist. Another round of light snow will may
accompany the very cold air arrival.

jaster220

Posted 06 November 2018 - 07:06 PM

jaster220

St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

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LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Love this write-up from Des Moines. I 'bolded' some of my favs but the whole thing is a good read. Possible thundersnow!? It also includes a tidbit regarding the cold for next week but felt it was ok to post in this thread since it covers this system.

If you like winter weather, continue reading, otherwise you may want
to stop here. The area of high pressure will move across Iowa
Wednesday night into Thursday. That said, mid-level warm advectionwill develop quickly on the back side of the surface high,
leading to increasing clouds and gradual lowering of saturation
and cloud bases through the day. High temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s are expected, however, the theta-eadvection induced
forcing will leading precipitation developing. Once saturation in
the lower levels occurs, surface temperatures should cool into the
the low to mid 30s over southern and possibly central Iowa with
light snow developing. This light snow potential will lift
northeast Thursday night and may have snow accumulations less than
2 inches possible over mainly the southeast half of the forecast
area. An intense PV anomaly will move into Iowa on Friday from the
northwest. This system will feature the 1.5 PV surface lowering
to near 600 mb and low static stability along with low CAPE and
steepening mid-level lapse rates. This all leads to the potential
for convective snow showers with brief periods of thundersnow not
out of the question. This may result in a quick 1-2 inches of snow
with local higher amounts with the focus currently north of
Interstate 80. The other potential issue is the wind gustpotential due to the mixing and the potential convection. Wind
gusts over 30 mph are possible and combined with periods of snow
with visibilities at one half mile or less, may cause a travel
hazard. Will continue to monitor for potential winter weather
headlines. For now, continue to prefer the GFSsolution which has
been very consistent with the track of this feature. Very cold
Friday night withwind chill values approaching zero over northern
Iowa.

The current forecast for Saturday remains dry but mid level clouds
will increase again cannot discount a few flurries over the state
as weak forcing passes aloft. The upper leveltrough will deepen
Sunday night into Monday and will allow very cold air to spill
south into the Midwest. The 850 mb progs of -15C to -20C are
incredibly cold for this time of year. The current forecast highs
in the 30s may be too high and have too much climatology and bias
correction included in them and may have to be adjusted into the
20s if trends persist. Another round of light snow will may
accompany the very cold air arrival.

Awesome! Sounds like the winter version of our dynamic clipper back on 10/20. Could this be the winter of potent clippers as Tom has alluded to? The 2nd bliz of '67 that brought Chicago to a standstill was indeed this kind of storm. Been a long time since I've experienced something similar. This winter could have it all, and then some.

Niko

Tom

Posted 07 November 2018 - 04:28 AM

Tom

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LocationDes Plaines, IL

06z NAM and other models are indicating this system really spins up as it tracks up towards the GL's/Ontario. In fact, the NAM is showing this system go from 1016 mb near the Apps into the mid 990's within 24 hours. My hunch was that this system would have the potential to spin up into a larger system which the Euro had been showing a few days ago due to the fact that this region has been a magnet for intensifying storm systems.

There is a secondary piece, a rotating vorticity max, that the higher rez models are showing across the N GL's with this system, that rotates around the backside of the storm along with some very high winds. This may be a bonus situation for additional snowfall.

jaster220

Posted 07 November 2018 - 06:39 AM

jaster220

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LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

06z NAM and other models are indicating this system really spins up as it tracks up towards the GL's/Ontario. In fact, the NAM is showing this system go from 1016 mb near the Apps into the mid 990's within 24 hours. My hunch was that this system would have the potential to spin up into a larger system which the Euro had been showing a few days ago due to the fact that this region has been a magnet for intensifying storm systems.

There is a secondary piece, a rotating vorticity max, that the higher rez models are showing across the N GL's with this system, that rotates around the backside of the storm along with some very high winds. This may be a bonus situation for additional snowfall.

Just in case anyone missed that key statement. Hello 13-14 and welcome back. Man, are those nice words to read. JB's comments last Saturday may not be that far off after all, at least for the UP if not the LP of #puremichigan. I noticed that little piece rotating around the backside myself late last night and wanted to post a map but had to get some zzz's

CentralNebWeather

Posted 07 November 2018 - 06:41 AM

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LocationHoldrege, NE

Seems like the 06Z computer models keep moving the heaviest snow farther north into Nebraska. If it goes much farther this will be up towards South Dakota. I will need to look at the 12Z when they come out. Still WWA here for 2-4 inches starting late tonight through Thursday with a bitterly cold day on Friday by November standards even seeing that if we have snow cover we could drop to 10 degrees or lower by Saturday morning. Mercy.

PS- Just looked at 12Z NAM and NAM 3km, both look good, 3km even better for my area.

bud2380

Posted 07 November 2018 - 06:59 AM

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LocationNorth Liberty, IA

The NAM continues to show this storm significantly different than the other models. First of all it's by far the strongest, but then the secondary wave on Friday is non-existent. The Euro is showing a strip of .2" qpf running right through my back yard on Friday. That would be nice to see. Could get a couple inches out of this Friday.