Texas Rangers baseball and more, by Scott Lucas

October 06, 2010

Number-Oriented Thoughts on Texas versus Tampa Bay

Log5 Predictor

Bill James invented a formula for calculating the probability of victory based on two team’s winning percentages called “log5.” I’ve calculated the probability of each potential outcome two use data sets: 1) Texas and Tampa Bay’s actual won-loss record (both home and away), and 2) Baseball Prospectus’s 3rd-order wins (91.3 for Tampa Bay, 88.4 for Texas, about one-half the difference in their actual wins) plus a 4% advantage to the home team. Obviously, Tampa Bay will be favored since they own the better record and home-field advantage.

The most likely scenario involves the Rays winning in a full five games. The Rangers are actually more likely to win in four games than five. Ignoring juice, some oddsmakers I’ve visited have the Rays at -135 to win the series, equivalent to 57%. Based on log5, the odds are close to “correct.”

The Deeper In

Offense

After adjusting for parks, Texas and Tampa Bay had pretty evenly matched offenses in 2010. The Rays play take and rake, finishing 13th of 14 teams in batting average and worst in strikeouts but also 1st in walks and in the middle of the pack in isolated power. The Rangers, on the other hand, led the league with a .276 batting average but displayed ordinary patience and power.

But Texas was hampered offensively by injuries to Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton plus the subpar performances of Justin Smoak (not forgiving his rookie status for this exercise), Chris Davis, and others. Tampa Bay had its own problems (Burrell, Blalock), but with a reasonably healthy lineup and adequate bat in the form of Mitch Moreland at 1st, do the Rangers trump the Rays offensively?

I recreated the batting lines of Texas and Tampa Bay based on projected playing time in a five-game series (for example, Jeff Francoeur starting Games 1 and 5 versus lefty David Price and including only his lefty slash stats). You can quibble with my estimates (how dare you) and the names on the bench (which haven’t been finalized as of early Wednesday morning), but one-game adjustments for a small handful of players wouldn’t affect the calculations much.

Pos

Player

BA

OBP

SLG

AVG+

OBP+

SLG+

Games

C

Bengie Molina

.240

.279

.320

83

83

77

2.50

C

Matt Treanor

.211

.287

.308

86

86

74

1.50

1B

Mitch Moreland

.255

.364

.469

109

109

112

3.00

1B

Jorge Cantu

.235

.279

.327

83

83

78

2.00

2B

Ian Kinsler

.286

.382

.412

114

114

99

5.00

3B

Mike Young

.284

.330

.444

99

99

106

5.00

SS

Elvis Andrus

.265

.342

.301

100

102

72

5.00

IF

Andres Blanco

.277

.330

.349

99

99

84

0.25

OF

Josh Hamilton

.359

.411

.633

123

123

152

5.00

OF

Nelson Cruz

.318

.374

.576

112

112

138

5.00

OF

David Murphy

.291

.358

.449

107

107

108

2.00

OF

Jeff Francoeur

.300

.363

.442

108

108

106

2.00

OF

Julio Borbon

.276

.309

.340

92

92

82

1.75

DH

Vlad Guerrero

.300

.345

.496

103

103

119

5.00

-

Team Total

-

-

-

104

105

107

-

Pos

Player

BA

OBP

SLG

AVG+

OBP+

SLG+

Games

C

John Jaso

.263

.372

.378

103

115

95

3.00

C

Kelly Shoppach

.196

.308

.342

77

95

86

1.50

1B

Carlos Pena

.196

.325

.407

77

101

102

5.00

2B/UT

Sean Rodriguez

.292

.375

.442

114

116

111

2.00

3B

Evan Longoria

.294

.372

.507

115

115

127

5.00

SS

Jason Bartlett

.254

.324

.350

99

100

88

5.00

SS

Reid Brignac

.256

.307

.385

100

95

96

0.25

IF

Willy Aybar

.230

.309

.344

90

96

86

0.25

OF

Carl Crawford

.307

.356

.495

120

110

124

5.00

OF

Matthew Joyce

.241

.360

.477

94

111

119

5.00

OF

B.J. Upton

.237

.322

.424

93

100

106

5.00

UT

Ben Zobrist

.238

.346

.353

93

107

88

3.00

DH/4C

Dan Johnson

.198

.343

.414

77

106

104

4.50

DH/OF

Brad Hawpe

.245

.338

.419

89

97

97

0.25

-

Team Total

-

-

-

96

107

106

-

Separating the wheat from the chaff results in much prettier OBP and slugging for both teams, as you’d expect. Texas leapfrogs the Rays in power but remains behind in on-base percentage. Combined with their modest superiority on the basepaths, the Rays own perhaps a very slight advantage on the Rangers offensively.

Pitching

I performed similar calculations for the rotations and bullpen but used Fangraphs’ WAR instead of a less trustworthy (especially for relievers) stat like ERA. I assigned innings to each starting pitcher roughly equivalent to average innings per start during 2010 rounded down to the nearest 1/3 inning and then subtracted another 1/3. Doing so creates a conservative estimate and assumes both managers will employ quick hooks to play the matchup game. I assumed a four-man rotation and assigned innings to the bullpen so that each team’s total was 45 innings (five games). Again, if you see something distasteful, note that small changes in innings and/or the personnel at the back of the bullpen make little difference.

Name

IP

WAR

WAR/IP

Playoff IP

Playoff WAR

Cliff Lee

108

3.3

0.031

14.3

0.44

C.J. Wilson

204

4.4

0.022

6.0

0.13

Colby Lewis

201

4.4

0.022

6.0

0.13

Tommy Hunter

128

0.7

0.005

5.0

0.03

TOTAL

-

-

-

-

0.73

Name

IP

WAR

WAR/IP

Playoff IP

Playoff WAR

David Price

209

4.3

0.021

13.0

0.27

James Shields

203

2.2

0.011

6.0

0.07

Matt Garza

205

1.8

0.009

6.0

0.05

Wade Davis

168

0.8

0.005

5.3

0.03

TOTAL

-

-

-

-

0.41

Here lies the striking difference between the teams. Not a single matchup favors the Rays. David Price bests Cliff Lee in wins, ERA, and strikeouts, but Lee triumphs in a variety of deeper stats (FIP, xFIP, strand rate, etc.). Again, for emphasis: to a man, Texas’s rotation is equal to or better than Tampa Bay’s.

Name

IP

WAR

WAR/IP

Playoff IP

Playoff WAR

Neftali Feliz

69

1.8

0.026

3.0

0.08

Alexi Ogando

41

0.8

0.020

2.0

0.04

Darren O'Day

62

0.9

0.015

2.0

0.03

Darren Oliver

62

1.5

0.024

2.0

0.05

Dustin Nippert

57

(0.3)

(0.005)

2.0

(0.01)

Derek Holland

57

0.8

0.014

1.3

0.02

Michael Kirkman

16

0.3

0.019

1.3

0.02

TOTAL

-

-

-

-

0.23

Name

IP

WAR

WAR/IP

Playoff IP

Playoff WAR

Rafael Soriano

62

1.7

0.027

3.0

0.08

Grant Balfour

55

1.2

0.022

2.3

0.05

Jeff Niemann

174

1.2

0.007

2.3

0.02

Joaquin Benoit

60

1.6

0.027

2.3

0.06

Chad Qualls

59

0.3

0.005

1.7

0.01

Randy Choate

44

0.5

0.011

1.7

0.02

Dan Wheeler

48

0.1

0.002

1.3

0.00

TOTAL

-

-

-

-

0.24

Both teams have strong bullpens with excellent closers and nobody truly awful on the back end. The worst of the lot, Dustin Nippert, carries the burden of saving his mates in the pen if a starter flames out.

Defense

The Rays and Rangers are excellent defensively. Tampa Bay holds a moderate .006 advantage in defensive efficiency, but per Baseball Prospectus, Texas retakes the league (indeed, leads all of baseball) when considering park effects.

Conclusions

Admittedly, this is an ungainly and imperfect analysis. However, I feel Texas’s passably healthy and revamped roster compares favorably with Tampa Bay’s and largely (if not totally) eliminates the six-game difference between them. This is an awfully close matchup. I’d still rank Tampa Bay as the favorite, if only because of home-field advantage, but a Texas victory shouldn’t be considered an upset. Not that I’m putting money on the outcome (having my emotional well-being on the line is plenty, thanks), but I’d take Texas at +125 over the Rays at -145.

And now, time to live on the edge of my seat for a few days. Hopefully, the next few weeks. Go Rangers.