Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Today was "all about me" day at school for my Kindergartener. He made a poster where he glued down some photos of himself and pictures of things he liked in magazines, which interestingly includes the LA Rams. He's a committed LA sports fan: he is diehard for the Dodgers so he assumes the "new" football team there must be amazing as well. Oh youngster...Moving on. To Bob. Delightful and helpful Bob is back with his streaming defenses for Week 4.

Welcome to Week 4 Streaming Defenses. First, let’s take a
look at last week and how our predictions held up. As you can see by the chart
below, it was another great week for the highly owned teams. And I guess I have
to apologize to Chiefs fans everywhere. Who knew they would post the top
fantasy points of the week. And I told you not to start them, in fact, I
advised to drop them altogether. That’s what is called a ‘big flop’. So I guess
if you didn’t drop them you might think twice. I was right about HOU though,
and pretty on point with the rest. As for the streamers, they did pretty well,
except maybe the 49ers. So we’ve had three weeks in a row of big points for the
highly owned, I don’t think it will continue, it never does. Oh, and sorry
about that PHI thing too.

Week
3 Highly Owned

Team

OPP

Proj Pts

% Owned

Actual

DEN

@CIN

16

100%

27

CAR

MIN

14

100%

8

SEA

SF

13

100%

7

ARI

@BUF

14

99%

11

HOU

@NE

10

95%

4

NE

HOU

12

93%

16

KC

NYJ

4

86%

35

MIN

@CAR

14

82%

27

Average

16.87

Streams
for Week 3

SF

@SEA

12

3%

6

BAL

@JAC

11

39%

16

MIA

CLE

10

7%

8

LAR

@TB

9

74%

12

OAK

@TEN

8

57%

11

Average

10.6

PHI

PIT

3

49%

16

So what did we learn? Well we’ve already covered the Chiefs
and Eagles. Another two notable teams from last week were TB and Buf. Buf
posted 25 points against ARI and TB posted a respectable 13 against LAR. A lot
of other sites were recommending TB, but I didn’t see it that way. If anything,
it tells us that LAR is now a good target. With a bad quarterback, teams are
stacking the line to stop Gurley, forcing Keenan to throw to no avail. PHI is
averaging 14.7 per game now, and they look like they are for real on defense. So
let’s review our targets: TEN, CLE, SF, JAC, and now LAR. SEA is looking like a
target as well and will depend on who’s starting at QB. But I like Boykin
better than Wilson when it comes to avoiding sacks. So if Wilson starts
injured, they are a good target. With that knowledge let’s go to Week 4.

It’s a bit of slim pickings this week, with PHI and GB on a
BYE. But there are four I like if you don’t have a highly owned and two that
get honorable mention.

Week
4 Highly Owned

Team

Opp

Proj
Pts

%
Owned

Comments

DEN

@TB

16

100%

If the Rams can get 12 points on TB think what the Broncos can
do. Must start.

CAR

@ATL

9

100%

CAR's Def is struggling due to being on the field too long
because of the sputtering offense, and ATL is not giving up points to Defs
easily. Start them anyway but temper expectations.

SEA

@NYJ

12

100%

After what KC did, I think the best part of SEA, the Def, will
have a good day, start 'em.

ARI

LAR

12

99%

With LAR as the newest target, ARI should right the ship, a good
start.

HOU

TEN

14

96%

HOU bounces back with the best target of the year so far, must
start.

NE

BUF

10

90%

NE has been getting progressively better, but Buf may give them
some trouble, but you have to start NE.

MIN

NYG

12

85%

MIN is a bonafide juggernaut, must start.

KC

@PIT

8

81%

I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest a start of KC but
nothing like last week. Surprised so many still own them so let's keep them
in the highly owned column.

Streams
for Week 3

WAS

CLE

10

7%

WAS hasn't scored big on Def but has played 3 off juggernauts,
this week they have a great target, 1st best stream.

LAR

@ARI

10

78%

The only consistency for LAR has been its Def. Averaging 9
pts/gm against some tough teams, I see them scoring against an ARI off that
was stymied by lowly Buf last week. 2nd best stream.

SD

NO

10

1%

Averaging 9.7 pts per game so far, SD is quietly putting up some
points and getting better. With so many injuries on Off the defense steps up
once again.

BAL

OAK

8

23%

BAL Def has quietly averaged 12.3 pts per game, but go against a
team that has only surrendered 7 points this year to Defs. With BAL at home
this week, that's about to change.

About Me

So why Fantasy Football Librarian? I have been playing fantasy football now for 12 years. I'm also a librarian at a museum in New York City (though my family and I now live in Knoxville, Tennessee) and I love to research stuff. What could be better than combining my love for football and research? So in September 2006, I launched FFLibrarian to try and create one place for fantasy football fans to find the info they need to succeed in their leagues.
From 2007-2013, I conducted an accuracy analysis of the experts' rankings with support from the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, and have written columns for The New York Times' Fifth Down blog and the Bruno Boys.
Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions or suggestions. Here's to the 2016 season!