Thursday, July 30, 2015

I've been posting some oddities / things I'm doing off-norm to experiment with live play and see where it takes me. Last week, I posted a hand where I decided to flop / squeeze a wet board with blanks, into what seemed like a weak cbet, scared of flopped trips... It backfired in my face :-). However, I did get a cool comment out of it: I have "balls of steel." Nice!

Anyway, your hero joins the fracas this week with a hand from last night:
Straddled to $8 from UTG, who is a Iranian guy - crazy, hot headed who just loves to get loud and grouse about anything and everything. He also is in love with the raise; he's got a wide range from all positions and is not afraid to "ship it" with weak holdings. So far, he's made correct reads and worked his stack up from $300 to $500. I'm on the BTN and I overlimp 3 players to my right with QJhh when it gets to UTG who pops it to $25 on top. Folds around to the player immediately to my right (weakish player, plays hands face up, etc. - generally non-thinking) who thinks for a bit then calls the $25.

Action to me and I pump it up to $100, having had the plan all along. Thought is that I can see a flop cheap for $8 with suited connectors / premiums if it checks through or I can squeeze the UTG if / when his bet comes as somewhat expected. There's a ton of dead money (around $35 plus the UTG $25 + the guy on my right's $25) and UTG is rarely ever showing up with a hand.

So you risked $92 (with $8 already invested) to win ~$70 (two players in for $25, two other limpers for the $8 straddle, SB and BB, assuming 1/3). I don't love the raise, if you are not willing to call an all-in. I'd rather flat and then make a play on the flop, depending on how the players ahead of me react and the texture of the board.

I think it's a profitable spot; UTG is so likely to be the "table bully" and raise air here - as he's been continually doing. I'm going to miss the flop a ton, as is UTG, but why not get his weak sauce out of there when he can release his hand - because when he possibly hits any of his pair, he's never letting go...

Wow! You must love action. You pushed 20% of your stack with Q-J sooted. Is this at the "Shoe"? I was thinking to play in Charles Town when I go to DC next week. If the action is this hot, I might reconsider. Best case scenario is that you will be heads up against the maniac who will probably defend his children. If guy on the right has a high pair it could be brutal. If anyone calls, then what are you planning for a c-bet if you miss the flop? Do you have the discipline to fold a bet if the flop is suited against you? I think you would be a hard person to play against. If I was at the table, I would put you on a middle pair - not a drawing hand. I would fold unless I had the overs or there was another caller.

So, (and I know I haven't had a moment to respond to your email) definitely play Horseshoe over Charles Town. CT is very much a reg fest and runs 4-5 tables at most, whereas Live runs 40 tables & Shoe runs 10+. Game selection is best at Live, but play is loosest at Shoe - in addition (for the low NL games) you have 1/3 vs. Live's 1/2 (50% larger stack sizes and bets).

Maniac is smart enough to fold when facing opposition - and he's done so. I guess I'm sorta misrepresenting him in the fact that he can fold and not go to the wall with every hand. I actually think UTG may be a bit fearful of me, seeing that I'm the only non-donk at the table. For the flop and post flop action, if I get calls for $100 with $400 behind, I think I'm cbetting nearly 100% of the time. I have no problem getting it in with a draw if the flop comes, or getting it in with a TP hand if I hit.

My research has uncovered the same things about Charles Town. It seems to be typically full of local borderline nits. Couple this with a high rake and you bleed money while you fold hand after hand. Reminds me of Planet Hollywood before the clubs close. The only thing that bothers me is the traffic from Ashburn to Baltimore. Also, why is it that everyone is playing hold'em? I am starting to see the logic of playing Omaha. Maniac's are welcomed with open arms instead of the pain in the butt guys who disrupt tables until they bust out.

Wow! You must love action. You over bet the pot with 20% of your stack. Best case scenario the Iranian guy calls and the guy on right folds. My thoughts would be if you are heads up against the aggro guy then if you miss the flop then you what do you do for a c-bet? Is this normal for the Shoe? I am going to be in DC(Ashburn) next week and was thinking to play at Charles Town. However, if the action is this hot I might reconsider. I think you would be a difficult person to play against. I would put you on a middle pair in this scenario. I would probably fold unless I had over cards. However, I hate it when an aggro straddles UTG. If you call with a bunch of limpers, the UTG usually comes over the top to wipe everyone out or create a large pot.

Hate it. You have everything in the world going for you. A hand that plays well multi-way against a mad man that already feels entitled since he straddled and is chip drunk. Also, an abc player that is already reluctant and you can play perfectly against. And you are on the freaking button. Why on earth would you try to get creative in this dream spot? You should only pump to $100+ here for 2 reasons - 1) For value. To Matt Tag's point you have a hand that you would call off a 4-bet or 5-bet all in with like QQ+, AKo+, or 2) Complete air which you wouldn't call or re-raise with. You're playing the in between zone, which does not work in this spot. Make this play with Q5hh, not QJhh.

You call $8 and raise to $100. I'm putting you on 9,9 or lower. I'm putting the "weakish player" on A,Q or A,J and the Iranian on 8,8 or better. I think you are way behind in this hand if both call. The question is, what are they putting you on. Now, if the Iranian has crap he'll fold and the other guy probably too. But if the Iranian calls, I see the other guy calling as well. Interested to see the outcome!

Interesting responses... since the opinion is overwhelmingly just call the $25 - what's the plan when I call the UTG raise for $25? He's nearly 100% to cbet any flop - and we're looking at around $110 in the pot. I predict his cbet to be around $75 - are we floating the flop? Are we raising air on the flop? Again, we're going to miss the flop very often here - granted, so will he - but what do we do? What kinds of flops are we looking for?

I think theoretically calling the $25 is correct. However, I think table feel makes a big difference in this case. ABC was nervous and maniac showed he folds when confronted with aggression. Some of my best plays seem stupid taken out of context. If the players reacted the way you were expected, then you made a great read.

The plan is to take a flop in this great situation. There will be boards you'll want to fold when led into like ace high or small cards. There will be boards you'll float like two backdoors and overs. There will be boards you'll raise and get it in like combo draws and 2pair. There is I'll be boards you'll check back with decent equity like gut shots, open enders, mid pairs and one pair hands to pot control. I think there are too many textures and situations to give you an end all be all response. Lets analyze the flop...

1) Can't tell what position you're in2) Can't tell us your reads on V5. Is he thinking, competent and dare I say good? Or is he a top pair is the nuts kind of player?3) You didn't tell us anything about the table dynamic, although you did say this was at live (I'm assuming 1/2) so I suppose we can assume that the game plays loose-passive and generally horribly

Anyway, to answer your question in a vacuum without all of these vital details, here is my thinking against a decent thinking player:

- Flop: Call the $25 raise and take a lesser variance line here. You're owned by a lot of better combo draws like 9Tss, TJss, etc. You're also not getting 77, 88, A8 and A7 to fold. You may get 78 to fold but this doesn't justify an agro line.

-Turn: If you improve to a straight/flush, I like leading about 3/5 pot. This ensures you get value from V5's 2p, sets and draws that are now under-dogs to your made hand. If you get raised on the straight, I probably get it in. if you get raised on the flush, I seriously consider folding, depending on read. there are just too many combos. I suppose you could check-call rather than bet-fold but this could cost you a lot more on the river. Otherwise check-fold when you don't improve and shrug off the $35.

-River: Assuming you improved and were not bet-off / got it in on the turn...bet again for value and consider folding when the board pairs. sounds weak, but V5s range would be heavily weighted to 2p and sets.

Caveat: ignore all of this if V5 is not a thinking player. in that case i'm ok with pushing your combo draw to take a high variance, but profitable spot against someone willing to stack of from AT+

Gents (and lady-like men - I'm talking to you, Lightning!): Sorry for the long-trumpeted delay... I'm sure you're all waiting with baited breath for the results. They're less than exciting, but I still hold that a squeeze there for $100 to win $75+ outright is a decent move - though, yes, I could do it with any suited connectors, top and bottom ends of my range - and probably would do so again with ATC in this situation.

In the hand above, the crazian Iranian (political point - he's a hot head; this is perhaps why Iran should not be allowed to have nuclear weapons - Obama has his head in the sand with his idiotic agreement) got really pissed off at my limp / raise and finally folded his claimed small pair. The guy to my right - ABC player - thought for a while and finally shoved what amounted to $182, which I called off to be shown AKo for what the internet kids call a good ole fashioned 60/40 race... The board ran clean completely and ABC scooped the pot.