Since mid-February some parts of the area from Houston to Beaumont, and north to Lufkin, have received just one-tenth of the precipitation they normally get.

“Grasses and crops are already showing signs of water stress,” said state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University.

“There are no big problems yet, but May is usually one of the wettest months of the year. So if these areas don't get some rain, it could cause a lot of problems down the line. It means we could be in for another hard summer as far as rainfall goes.”

Forecasters say the area might finally get some meaningful relief this weekend as the ridge of high pressure over the area, which has kept a lid on shower activity, will move eastward.

As this happens a weak area of low pressure should build over the Southern Plains this weekend, said Nathan Stanford, a meteorologist with ImpactWeather, a private forecasting company in Houston.

“Cooler air aloft associated with this weak trough, combined with increasing moisture off of the Gulf, will destabilize Southeast Texas, thus increasing rain chances,” he said.

Forecasters anticipate at least a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain through this weekend, and rain chances could be raised a bit Sunday into Monday as moisture levels peak.

Enough moisture and instability is expected to hang around through much of next week to allow for at least the daily risk of afternoon sea breeze showers and storms, Stanford said.

By next weekend, the chance for rain could diminish as long-range models show high pressure building back in over the area.

If the region doesn't get the rain it needs, the area could see the beginnings of another bad drought, like last summer.

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The Texas drought that peaked last summer officially ended in February, and was one of the worst the state has ever experienced. It rivaled the great droughts of the early 1920s through much of the 1950s, Nielsen-Gammon said.

At its peak last summer about 23 percent of Texas was classified as being under “exceptional” or “extreme” drought conditions that occur only once about every 20 or 50 years, he said.