I would say realistic expectations would be to average 20-30% per annum based on picking a handful of TRADERS.

I want to see the Darwin's equity curve mimicking the underlying strategy, so high Rs & Ra scores are a must. Similar to @CavaliereVerde I want to know more about the trader behind the strategy. I don't want to have to trust Darwinex's risk manager but prefer to rely on the trader with Darwinex as a fail safe. The trader for me has to have skin in the game, with his own money on the line he is more likely to treat this as a business. Having said that - Managing other peoples money is completely different to managing your own funds so I would also like to see how the trader reacts to increased AUM does there trading behaviour change? or do they take a business like approach.

We can never know if we are facing the best (past) system of an average trader or the average system of the best trader, and it makes a lot of differerence in terms of future performance.The only way is knowing the trader and his degree of honesty.

You are right, but honesty does not do everything.Some traders may be overly optimistic and think honestly that they can achieve performance they will never have.And above all nothing is frozen, if a strategy that has worked for many years suddenly loses, the honesty of the trader will not change anything.In my opinion, what matters most to estimate future performance of a darwin is rigor and adaptability of the trader and the length of the track record.However, it is difficult to judge rigor but the activity of traders on this forum can be a good indicator.For example, I think you have that quality given the rigor with which you keep your community portfolio up to date.Adaptability is probably the most important element but also the most difficult to detect.Therefore the most important verifiable element seems to me to be the content of the track record, the longer it is the more information it brings.

Personally I do not take any consideration of the migrated part of a track record for the reasons that have been cited.The problem is that there are very few interesting darwins with a track record sufficiently long to define a realistic expectation of performance.It will therefore take a few years to see more clearly.Trackrecords will be increasingly long and reliable and there will be more and more traders performing.The more time will pass, the greater and more accurate the expectation of performance will be.So wait and see.

I did not target anyone in particular, it can concern all of us.It is normal to be optimistic if we have every reason to be so, the important thing in my opinion is to be humble and never take anything for granted.It is probable that no strategy will work eternally, those who will resist will be those who will be able to challenge themselves and who will be able to adapt to the changes.Anyway, none of us can promise a performance, we can just define a coherent target and do our best to achieve it, keeping in mind that the past does not necessarily prejudge the future.

You are in the best position to judge the potential of your strategies, and I will never allow myself to judge it, because I have no evidence to asserting the opposite.Anyway I sincerely wish you to reach your goals.

Only the trader himself as the owner of the startegy can have the confidence, true or false, to be resilient in trading his own stuff, investors and others are just wandering and have no clue especially when DD is happening, so investing is just as hard as trading yourself, I was there so I know.

@TraderTomI want to continue our discussion on equity curve shape here.Let's go back to YZF : https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/YZF.4.16Maybe the shape is not so appealing but the most difficult thing in trading is enduring months of drawdown.A system with 2 years of up and downs may need some more optimization but shows discipline by the trader.

I think is the perfect description. It’s listed as a breakout and trend correction system which explains the big gains. The issue many systems following that kind of strategy can have is problems with is pulling back in ranging markets. There is an edge in trading breakouts but that edge is gone in ranging markets and loads of profits can be given back then. I’m assuming this might be true for this system. It’s hard to get automated systems to capture breakouts but ignore ranging

Maybe but I don't want to discuss about techical analysis and systems.What I want to say is that strategies can always be improved, what matters is the behaviour of the trader.Let's look also to the stability of the VaR.

I know Darwinex is still in its infancy to some extent but the future is glowing bright red with positive prospect ahead and a myriad of challenges to overcome....some old....some new......some undiscovered XII DARWIN is actually aiming for a conservative average 1% - 2% per month with - 5% max DD and focusing on consistency and uncorrelated market performance but most of the signal provider platforms don't really appreciate that sort of "mediocre" returns.....If you're not pumping out 100% profit a month you're not game. I see some DARWINs racking in average 25% per annum and very slow to attract the necessary AUM...I think out there in the retail world everyone is more concerned about "return" but on the institutional level its all about the other side of the coin "risk"Just my 5 pips......

Are you sure?ERQ has an annual return of 25% and an AUM of one million.

I have to say that about 2/3 of the AUM of ERQ come from my friends. They know very little about trading. They invest simply because they trust me.

Iceberg12:

XII DARWIN is actually aiming for a conservative average 1% - 2% per month with - 5% max DD

CavaliereVerde:

You can't target a DD of 5% for a darwin, darwins run at a VaR of 10% , it means 10-15% physiological DD.

I think Darwinex should provide more options to attract traders who want to generate stable 10-15% annual return with around 5% drawdown, which institutional funds are very interested in. You cannot ask them to invest half of the money in DARWINs of 10% VaR. It is not like 2 * 1/2 =1. Darwinex Exchange could be divided into Exchange A and Exchange B. A different risk manager can be designed for DARWINs in Exchange B, not just 5% VaR.

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