Marine Weather and TidesBrookmont, MD

Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AM

Sunset 5:54PM

Friday February 22, 2019 12:22 PM EST (17:22 UTC)

Moonrise 9:41PM

Moonset 8:57AM

Illumination 89%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

ANZ500 937 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019 Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will stall across the carolinas through tonight as high pressure builds to the north toward new england. Low pressure developing over the middle mississippi river valley will strengthen as it moves northeastward across the great lakes into canada this weekend. High pressure will build from the northern great plains toward the great lakes and eventually into the northeast through the first half of next week. Gale conditions are likely over the waters Sunday into Monday.

Synopsis
A front will stall over the southeastern CONUS through tonight
as high pressure builds to the north toward new england. Low
pressure developing over the middle mississippi river valley
will strengthen as it moves northeastward across the great lakes
into canada this weekend. High pressure will build from the
northern great plains toward the great lakes and eventually into
the northeast through the first half of next week. Low pressure
developing over the tennessee valley could approach the region
during the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
The dew point gradient is the best way to discern a subtle boundary
moving southward through central virginia and southern maryland
this morning. The main surface front temperature gradient is
draped across south carolina. Both of these boundaries will
sink southward and stall through this afternoon.

Plenty of high and mid-level clouds will remain overhead today
shortwave energy passes through in the westerly flow aloft and
the area remains in the right entrance of the jet. A northerly
flow will allow for dry conditions across most areas and it will
be seasonably chilly with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
for most locations. There may be enough overrunning for some
light rain, especially south of interstate 64 in central
virginia.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
Surface high pressure will be building to the north over upstate new
york and into new england tonight (~1035 mb). This is an ideal spot
to lock in some cold air near the surface, but the antecedent
airmass isn't abundantly cold. Temperatures are expected to fall to
around freezing for elevations above 1500 feet tonight, and across
northern maryland, the eastern west virginia panhandle and
northwestern virginia.

Precipitation likely holds off until after daybreak Saturday, except
perhaps across west-central virginia, which should allow
temperatures to rise some. Still, freezing rain seems likely at
least across the ridgetops along and west of the blue ridge and into
western maryland, possibly the eastern west virginia panhandle
Saturday morning through about midday. This is as precipitation
develops in strengthening overrunning ahead of a deepening surface
low over the midwest.

Continued warm advection should push temperatures above freezing
Saturday afternoon, though some hi-res guidance like the 00z nam
nest wants to hold onto freezing temperatures over the ridges until
Saturday evening. Lower elevations should see all rain (except
perhaps over northern maryland near the pennsylvania border).

The latest guidance has trended southward a bit with the heaviest
precipitation amounts Saturday night, likely in part due to high
pressure to the north nosing some drier low-level air into the
region. Strong warm air advection may overcome this some, but the
best upper jet forcing is displaced to our northwest closer to the
parent surface low (likely to track over lake michigan Saturday
night). This could help keep rainfall amounts near or a little under
one inch, but even that could result in minor flooding given
saturated ground and recent snowmelt, particularly over eastern west
virginia this weekend.

There may be a few heavier showers along the approaching cold front
early Sunday morning. I could see the warm front never truly making
it fully through the area given the high to the north and the parent
low being so far west, but Sunday is still expected to be very mild
since appreciable cold air advection lags well behind the surface
front, and downsloping westerly flow compressional warming should
push highs well into the 60s. Winds will likely be very gusty Sunday
with a strong pressure gradient behind the front, possibly reaching
or exceeding advisory criteria (greater than 45 mph).

Long term Monday through Thursday
The weather pattern will be largely dominated by a broad trough
aloft across eastern north america and strong canadian high
pressure at the surface. As a result, temperatures will stay
cooler than normal and it will be much drier than it has been
lately. On Monday, a tight pressure gradient will still exist
over the region associated with a deep cyclone over atlantic
canada, but the winds will not be as strong like on Sunday, but
still windy nonetheless. Overall, fair weather is expected much
of next week but on the chilly side.

Cigs expected to lower to ifr by late Saturday as a warm front
slowly approaches from the south, with rain overspreading the
area Saturday afternoon. Some freezing rain is possible near mrb
Saturday morning, if precipitation moves in quickly enough
while temperatures are still near or below freezing. Winds will
generally be N to NE AOB 10 kts.

Vfr likely returns by Sunday afternoon with gusty W winds 35+
kts.

Still windy on Monday with gusts likely in the 25-35 kt range.

Winds diminish further on Tue but still breezy with gusts in
the 15-25 kt range.

Marine
High pressure will continue to build from the north and winds
should remain below SCA criteria for most of the time through
Saturday night.

Rain is expected to overspread the waters Saturday into Saturday
night as the aforementioned boundary returns north as a warm front.

Whether or not the warm front makes it through the waters before a
cold front approaches from the west by Sunday morning remains to be
seen, but there is moderately high confidence in gale force winds
later Sunday into Sunday night in westerly flow behind the
front.

Marginal gales will still be possible on mon. Otherwise, strong
sca conditions mon-mon evening. SCA conditions possible again on
tue and wed.

Hydrology
Given recent snowmelt and saturated ground, three quarters of an
inch to around an inch of rain may be enough to result in minor
flooding issues this weekend, particularly over eastern west
virginia. The overall trend has been for slightly less rain, but not
so much less to completely avoid a flood threat. Despite the
slightly lower QPF totals in the 00z model suite, mmefs still
indicates >50% chance of minor flood at several river forecast
points later this weekend.

Weather Map and Satellite Images

(on/off) &nbspHelpWeather MapGOES Local Image of EDITNOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.Link to LoopOther links:
Northern PacificContential USFull GOES-East

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)

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