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Jun 22, 2013

Labor is expected to go down to one of its worst
election defeats in September, possibly only getting 30 – 35 seats in the 150
seat House of Representatives.Kevin Rudd, even if he can roll Gillard before then will have little
impact on that as his own knifing was caused by his poor poll ratings.Voters will soon remember his tenure in
the top job and the Liberals have plenty of television footage of his own
party’s opinions of him.

With the merely terrible polling of the past few
months, the Senate appeared to be a bridge too far for Abbott owing to the
healthy margin of the Labor/Green coalition.Given the disastrous polling at present, that may not be the case:

TONY Abbott stands to gain control of the Senate on September 14,
relegating Labor to its worst election result since 1901, according to a new
state-by-state polling analysis.

New fears have
spread through senior Labor ranks that the number two Labor Senate positions in
a number of states could now be at risk with Labor's primary vote at or below
30 per cent in most states. And the union movement is becoming increasingly
worried that unless Labor can maintain some influence in the Senate with the
Greens, it will be powerless to stop the Coalition trying to crush the union
movement.

An analysis of
the latest polls, showing a primary vote of 29 per cent, suggests Labor could
end up with only 25 to 26 Senate positions out of 76.

With the primary
vote in the Senate traditionally three to five points lower for Labor than what
it receives in the lower house, Labor stands to elect potentially just a single
Senator from Western Australia and Queensland and just two in most other
states. With the Greens likely to end up with 10 to 11, Labor would not be able
to exert any influence in the Senate.

Should this pan
out on election day it will be a cause of celebration everywhere other than
within Labor, Fairfax Media and the ABC, however it will not mean that the LNP
will be able to implement their policies immediately. The Senate unlike the
house, has fixed terms and the newly elected Senators will not take their seats
until July next year.

Abbott and his
party will go into government immediately, but will have to wait eight and a
half months for the Senate to come into line.Until then it will still be controlled by a substantial
number of Senators who are effectively the walking dead.

Anything the new
government passes will be voted down by people voted out of office until July
next year.Former PM, Paul Keating
famously described the Senate as unrepresentative swill.He will definitely correct during that
period.