Sunday, December 21, 2014

How would proportional representation work in Alberta, for federal
elections?

I’m not
talking about classic “list-PR” with candidates appointed by central parties.
I’m talking about the model designed by the Law Commission of Canada, where
every Member of Parliament represents actual voters and real communities. The
majority of MPs will be elected by local ridings as we do today. The others are
elected as regional MPs, topping-up the numbers of MPs
from your region so the total is proportional to the votes for each party. You
can cast a personal vote for a candidate within the regional list. The
region is small enough that the regional MPs are accountable.

So this is no longer an academic discussion. This is a practical
discussion: if Canada gets PR, how would it work in Alberta?

Mixed Proportional

With the Mixed Proportional system, you have two votes. With one,
you help elect a local MP as we do today. The majority of MPs would still be
local MPs.

With the other vote, you can vote for the party you want to see in
government, and for your favourite of your party’s regional candidates. So you
help elect a few regional MPs, topping-up the local results to make them match
the vote shares. Every vote counts: it’s proportional. You can vote for the
regional candidate you prefer: it’s personal. There are no closed lists. Voters
elect all the MPs.

Competing MPsEvery
voter in the region would be served by competing MPs. You could choose to go to
your local MP for service or representation, or you could go to one of your regional MPsfrom a “top-up region” based in your area, likely including someone you
helped elect.

Accountable MPs

This open list method was recommended both by our Law Commission and by the Jenkins Commission in the UK. Jenkins’ colourful explanation accurately predicted why closed lists would be rejected in Canada: additional members
locally anchored are “more easily assimilable into the political culture and
indeed the Parliamentary system than would be a flock of unattached birds
clouding the sky and wheeling under central party directions.”

Every vote counts. Each province still has the
same number of MPs it has today. No constitutional amendment is needed. Fair Vote Canada
says “We must give rural and urban voters
in every province, territory and regional community effective votes and fair
representation in both government and opposition.”

What would regional MPs do?

How would regional MPs operate? The regional MPs would cover several
ridings each. Just the way it’s done in Scotland. They could have several offices,
just as MP LaVar Payne has offices in Medicine Hat,
Brooks and Taber.

This
simulation is only if people voted as they did on May 2, 2011. When
every vote counts, turnout will likely be at least 6% higher, and no one will
have to cast a “strategic vote.” We would have had different
candidates - more women, and more diversity of all kinds. We could even have
different parties. Who can say what would be the result of real
democratic elections?

Meanwhile, I’ve done simulations on the votes cast in 2011.

Winner-take-all results

On the
votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all
results in Alberta on the new 2015 boundaries would be 33 Conservative MPs
and one New Democrat. Yet those voters cast only 67% of their votes for
Conservatives, 17% NDP, 9% Liberals, and 5% Green.

Calgary
elects ten MPs in 2015. With either of the two models, Calgary is the right
size for a “top-up region.”Six of the
ten would still be local MPs. The other four would be city-wide regional MPs,
topping up the total Calgary results to make them match the vote shares.

In 2011
Calgary voters elected eight Conservative MPs, and no others. Yet those voters
cast only 66% of their votes for Conservatives, while 14% voted Liberal, 12%
New Democrat, and 8% Green. If every vote counted equally, on those votes on
the 2015 boundaries Conservative voters would elect seven MPs, Liberal voters
one MP, New Democrat voters one, and Green voters one. (See Technical note
below.)

Conservative
voters can vote for the regional Conservative candidate they prefer. Many would
prefer Harper, Kenney, Ablonczy, Rempel, Richardson, or Obhrai, but on election
day, since they already won a local seat, the regional seat would go to the
next most popular. In other words, Conservative voters whose personal
preference was not one of those six can, if they wish, elect the seventh
Conservative MP.

Maybe
Punjabis and other South Asians would prefer Devinder Shory. Women Conservative
voters might have preferred a new regional female candidate such as Joan Crockatt. Chinese-ancestry voters might
have preferred a new regional candidate such as Gary Mar. In single-nomination
contests, white males predominate. But when Calgary members of any party
city-wide meet to elect a group of regional candidates, can you imagine them
failing to nominate a woman or a visible minority?

Liberal
voters would elect a regional Liberal MP, such as Jennifer Pollock or Cam
Stewart. NDP voters would elect a regional MP, such as Paul Vargis, Collin
Anderson or Holly Heffernan. Green voters would elect a regional MP, such as
Heather MacIntosh.

Three regions

The
other 24 MPs could be the 11 from metropolitan Edmonton, and the 13 from
Northern and Southern Alberta.

Metropolitan Edmonton

Metropolitan
Edmonton elects 11 MPs in 2015. Seven of the 11 would still be local MPs. The
other four would be regional MPs, topping up the total results to make them
match the vote shares.

On the
votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all
results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be ten Conservatives
and one New Democrat. Yet those voters cast only 58% of their votes for
Conservatives, 24% for New Democrats, 10% for Liberals, and 4% for Greens.

If every
vote counted equally, on those votes on the 2015 boundaries Conservative voters
would elect seven MPs, New Democrat voters three, and Liberal voters one. (See technical note as to how close Green
voters came to electing an Edmonton MP.)

Let’s
suppose the seven local MPs included Conservatives Rona Ambrose, James Rajotte,
Brent Rathgeber, Tim Uppal, Mike Lake and Laurie Hawn. Conservative voters
whose personal preference was not one of those six can, if they wish, elect the
seventh Conservative MP: maybe Peter Goldring or Ryan Hastman or a new
regional female candidate.

Suppose New
Democrat Linda Duncan is still a local MP. NDP voters can vote for the regional
NDP candidate they prefer. Many would prefer Linda Duncan, but on election day,
since she already won a local seat, the two regional seats would go to the two next
most popular: maybe Ray Martin and Lewis Cardinal or Nadine Bailey.

Liberal
voters would elect a regional Liberal MP, such as Mary MacDonald or Richard
Fahlman.

Northern and Southern Alberta

Alberta
voters outside Calgary and Metropolitan Edmonton elect 13 MPs in 2015. Eight of
the 13 would still be local MPs. The other five would be regional MPs, topping
up the total results to make them match the vote shares.

On the
votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all
results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be 13 Conservatives
and no one else. Yet those voters cast only 75% of their votes for
Conservatives, 14% for New Democrats, 5% for Liberals, and 5% for Greens.

If every
vote counted equally, on those votes on the 2015 boundaries Conservative voters
would elect ten MPs, New Democrat voters two, and Liberal voters one. (See technical note as to how close Green
voters came to electing an MP in this region.)

No doubt
the eight local MPs would have been Conservatives: depending on the new
boundaries, let’s say Kevin Sorenson from Killam, Grande Prairie’s Chris
Warkentin, Fort McMurray’s Brian Jean, Whitecourt’s Rob Merrifield, Innisfail’s
Earl Dreeshen, Airdrie’s Blake Richards, Medicine Hat’s LaVar Payne, and Claresholm’s
Ted Menzies. Conservative voters whose personal preference was not one of those
eight can, if they wish, elect the two regional Conservative MPs: maybe Vermillion’s
Leon Benoit, or Lacombe’s Blaine Calkins, or St. Paul‘s Brian
Storseth, or Jim Hillyer from Lethbridge, or a new regional female candidate. New
Democrats voters would elect two regional MPs such as Mark Sandilands in
Lethbridge and Grande Prairie’s Jennifer
Villebrun, or Janine Giles from Canmore. Liberal voters would elect
a regional MP such as Medicine Hat’s Norm Boucher, or Karen Young from Lac La
Biche.

Four regions

The
other 24 MPs could be the eight from the City of Edmonton, the eight from North
Alberta, and the eight from South and Central Alberta. These
smaller regions are intended to be “moderately” proportional, less likely to
elect MPs from smaller parties. But in return, they provide better geographic
representation, and more accountable regional MPs.

The Jenkins model uses second preferences. But in Alberta, using the EKOS poll taken
April 28-30, 2011, they would have changed nothing.

Edmonton

The City
of Edmonton elects eight MPs in 2015. Five of the eight would still be local
MPs. The other three would be city-wide MPs, topping up the total results to
make them match the vote shares.

On the
votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all
results in Edmonton on the 2015 boundaries would be seven Conservatives
and one New Democrat. Yet those voters cast only 55% of their votes for
Conservatives, 29% for New Democrats, 11% for Liberals, and 4% for Greens.

If every
vote counted equally, Conservative voters would elect five MPs, New Democrat
voters two, and Liberal voters one. (See
technical note as to how close Green voters came to electing an Edmonton MP.)

Let’s
suppose the five local MPs included Conservatives Rona Ambrose, James Rajotte, Brent
Rathgeber, and Peter Goldring. Conservative voters whose personal preference
was not one of those four can, if they wish, elect the fifth Conservative MP:
maybe Mike Lake, Laurie Hawn, or a new regional female candidate.

Suppose New
Democrat Linda Duncan is still a local MP. In that case, New Democrat voters
would elect a regional MP. NDP voters can vote for the regional NDP candidate
they prefer. Many would prefer Linda Duncan, but on election day, since she
already won a local seat, the regional seat would go to the next most popular:
maybe Ray Martin or Lewis Cardinal or Nadine Bailey.

Liberal
voters would elect a regional Liberal MP, such as Mary MacDonald or Richard
Fahlman.

North Alberta

North Alberta
voters elect eight MPs in 2015. Five of the eight would still be local MPs. The
other three would be regional MPs, topping up the total results to make them
match the vote shares.

On the
votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all
results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be eight
Conservatives and no one else. Yet those voters cast only 72% of their votes
for Conservatives, 13% for New Democrats, 5% for Liberals, and 4% for Greens.

If every
vote counted equally, Conservative voters would elect six MPs, New Democrat
voters one, and Liberal voters one. (See
technical note as to how close Green voters came to electing an MP in this
region.)

No doubt
the five local MPs would have been Conservatives: depending on the new
boundaries, let’s say Grande Prairie’s Chris Warkentin, Whitecourt’s Rob
Merrifield, Fort McMurray’s Brian Jean, Vermillion’s Leon Benoit, and Sherwood Park’s Tim Uppal.

Conservative
voters whose personal preference was not one of those five can, if they wish,
elect the regional Conservative MP: maybe St. Paul‘s Brian Storseth, or
a new
regional female candidate. New Democrat voters would elect a regional MP such
as Grande
Prairie’s Jennifer Villebrun or Innisfree’s Ray Stone.
Liberal voters would elect a regional MP such as Karen Young from Lac La Biche or
Bonnyville’s Rob Fox.

South and Central Alberta

South and
Central Alberta voters elect eight MPs in 2015. Five of the eight would still
be local MPs. The other three would be regional MPs, topping up the total results
to make them match the vote shares.

On the
votes cast in 2011, the winner-take-all
results in this region on the 2015 boundaries would be eight Conservatives
and no one else. Yet those voters cast only 74% of their votes for
Conservatives, 14% for New Democrats, 5% for Liberals, and 5% for Greens.

If every
vote counted equally, Conservative voters would elect six MPs, New Democrat
voters one, and Liberal voters one. (See
technical note as to how close Green voters came to electing an MP in this
region.)

No doubt
the five local MPs would have been Conservatives: depending on the new
boundaries, let’s say Kevin Sorenson from Killam, Innisfail’s Earl Dreeshen, Airdrie’s
Blake Richards, Claresholm’s Ted Menzies, and Medicine Hat’s LaVar Payne. Conservative
voters whose personal preference was not one of those five can, if they wish,
elect the regional Conservative MP: maybe Lacombe’s Blaine Calkins, or
Jim
Hillyer from Lethbridge, or a new regional female candidate. New Democrat voters
would elect a regional MP such as Mark Sandilands in Lethbridge or Janine
Giles from Canmore. Liberal voters would elect a regional MP such as Medicine
Hat’s Norm Boucher, Michael Cormican from Lethbridge, or John Reilly from Canmore.

Two models: summary

By using three regions, all regions are sure of
keeping all eight MPs. With the two-region model, in theory all five
regional MPs from North and South Alberta could have been from one-half of the
province. And with only eight MPs per region, the proportionality
is more moderate. But that might make it harder for Greens to elect someone.

However,
in this simulation the Alberta results are almost the same with either model: 24
Conservative MPs, five or six NDP MPs, three or four Liberal MPs, and one
Green.

Regional candidates

How would
party members nominate and rank a group of regional candidates? It could be
done on-line, and with live conventions. Likely party members in each region
would decide to nominate the same candidates nominated in the local ridings,
and some additional regional candidates. (In
Nova Scotia in 2011, in all 11 ridings the Liberals nominated only men.
Additional regional candidates would surely have included some women. Since
polls show 90% of Canadians want to see more women elected, we’ll elect women
when given the chance.)

But voters
would have the final say, since they can vote for their party’s regional
candidate they prefer.

More choice

With two votes, you can vote for the party you want in government. And you can also vote for the local candidate you like best regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the second (regional) ballot that determines the party make-up of the legislature. About 32% of voters split their ballots this way in New Zealand with a similar system.

Local MPs become more independent

This makes it easier for local MPs to get the support of people of all political stripes. They can earn support for their constituency-representation credentials, not just for their party. This boosts the kind of support MPs bring with them into the House of Commons, thus strengthening their independence.

Canada-wide
consequences.

With the new 30 MPs, on the 2011 votes transposed by
Elections Canada onto the new boundaries, the winner-take-all results for the
338 MPs would be 188 Conservative, 109 NDP, 36 Liberal, 4 Bloc, and 1 Green.

When every vote counts, the result is: 140
Conservatives, 104 NDP, 64 Liberals, 19 Bloc, and 11 Green, using full
proportionality on province-wide totals.

With
these two regional mixed models, the projected results are 141 or 144 Conservatives,
108 or 107 NDP, 62 or 65 Liberals, 17 or 15 Bloc, and 10 or 7 Greens. Close to
perfect proportionality, while keeping all MPs accountable to real local and
regional communities.

Canadian diversity

As Stéphane Dion says
"I no longer want a voting system that gives the impression that certain
parties have given up on Quebec, or on the West. On the contrary, the whole
spectrum of parties, from Greens to Conservatives, must embrace all the regions
of Canada. In each region, they must covet and be able to obtain seats
proportionate to their actual support. This is the main reason why I recommend
replacing our voting system."

This is not a partisan scheme. Unrepresented
Conservative voters would elect eight more Quebec MPs than in 2011, one more in
Newfoundland, one more in PEI, one more in Northern Ontario, and one more on
Vancouver Island.

Of
course, proportional representation would mean a lot for Canada. We would not
likely have a one party government’s Prime Minister holding all the power. (The
last Prime Minister to get more than 50% of the votes was Brian Mulroney in
1984.) Parliament would reflect the diverse voters of every province.

An
exciting prospect: voters have new power to elect who they like. New voices
from new forces in Parliament. No party rolls the dice and wins an artificial
majority. Cooperation will have a higher value than vitriolic rhetoric. Instead
of having only a local MP -- whom you quite likely didn’t vote for -- you can
also go to one of your diverse regional MPs, all of whom had to face the
voters. Governments will have to listen to MPs, and MPs will have to really
listen to the people. MPs can begin to act as the public servants they are. And
all party caucuses will be more diverse.

With this kind of power-sharing, Canada would look
quite different.

If we had a Proportional Representation voting system, here are only a few of
the things Canadians could have accomplished over the past twenty years:Ø Engaged
and motivated votersØ A
reinvigorated democratic systemØ More
women MPs and a fair mix of party representation

Our
electoral system is broken and people know it:Ø Disengaged
citizens are ignoring their right to voteØ A
dysfunctional conflict-oriented political process Ø Majority
governments with minority voting results

Poll results on proportional representation
Environics asked in 2013 “Some people favor bringing in a form of proportional
representation. This means that the total number of seats held by each party in
Parliament would be roughly equivalent to their percentage of the national
popular vote. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or
strongly oppose moving towards a system of proportional representation in
Canadian elections?”

Interviewing for this Environics National Telephone Survey was conducted
between March 18th – 24th, 2013, among a national random sample of 1,004
adults. The margin of error for a sample of this size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out
of 20.

Result: support 70%, oppose 18%, depends 6%, don’t know 6%.

The
Environics poll showed 93% of Green voters support proportional representation
while 4% oppose; 82% of NDP voters support it while 11% oppose; 77% of Liberal
voters support it while 15% oppose; 62% of Conservative supporters support it
while 28% oppose; and 55% of voters undecided as to party support PR while 19%
oppose and 27% said “don’t know” or “depends.”

The rounding method used in the simulation is
highest remainder, for the same reason the Ontario Citizens Assembly chose it:
it's the simplest. Germany used to use this too, on the premise that it offset
the risk to proportionality of their 5% threshold. Similarly it offsets smaller
region sizes.

You might wonder how Green Party voters
would deserve a Calgary MP. The
numbers work out as follows: Conservatives 6.615 MPs; Liberals 1.375 MPs; New
Democrats 1.241 MPs; Greens 0.770. After the first eight seats are awarded, the
9th seat goes to the ``highest remainder” (the Green), and the 10th
seat goes to the next (the Conservative.)

How close did
Green voters come to electing an Edmonton MP? We know that many potential Green
voters don’t bother casting futile (ineffective, wasted) votes. With the larger-region
model of 11 MPs from Metropolitan Edmonton, if another 6,000 voters had cast
Green votes, they would have elected an MP such as Valerie Kennedy or Peter
Johnston, taking a seat from the Conservatives. With the smaller-region model
of eight MPs from the city of Edmonton, which was already better territory for
the Greens, it would have taken only 3,500 more Green votes to elect an MP and
take a seat from the Conservatives.

How close did Green voters come to electing an MP
in North and South Alberta? With the larger-region model of 13 MPs, it would
have taken only 3,000 more Green voters to elect an MP such as Airdrie’s Mike
MacDonald or Jasper’s Monika Schaefer, but he or she would have pushed the
Liberals into fourth place, taking their seat away. With the smaller-region
model of eight MPs in North Alberta, it would have taken only 3,500 more Green
voters to elect an MP such as Jasper’s Monika Schaefer or William Munsey from New Sarepta, but again she or he would have pushed the
Liberals into fourth place, taking their seat away. In South and Central
Alberta with eight MPs, it would have taken only 2,100 more Green voters to push
the Liberals into fourth place and elect an MP such as Airdrie’s Mike MacDonald
or Red Deer’s Mason Sisson.

I said Calgary elects ten MPs in 2015. But a new
Boundaries Commission might include Airdrie, Rocky View County, Cochrane,
Chestermere, and so on, bringing Metropolitan Calgary up to 11 MPs in the larger-region
model.

Monday, December 1, 2014

What would Ontario’s 2014 election results be with proportional
representation?

I’m not
talking about classic “list-PR” with candidates appointed by central parties.
I’m talking about the model designed by the Law Commission of Canada, where
every Member of Parliament represents actual voters and real communities. The
majority of MPPs will be elected by local ridings as we do today. The others
are elected as regional MPPs, topping-up the
numbers of MPPs from your region so the total is proportional to the votes for
each party. You can cast a personal vote for a candidate
within the regional list. The region is small enough that the regional MPPs are
accountable.

True, most people are focussed on the 2015 federal campaign. So is Fair
Vote Canada, which has over 44,000 signers on the Declaration of Voters’ Rights.

But Ontario’s 2014 election is a great example of what PR would do for voters.

Invisible Liberal voters

Ontario’s surprise majority government looks dominated by the GTA. Almost
two-thirds of Liberal MPPs are from the GTA.

But electing a Liberal MPP in the GTA
took only 25,326 votes, while it took 45,026 outside the GTA. In the GTA 962,385
Liberal voters elected 38 MPPs, while outside the GTA, 900,522 Liberal voters
elected only 20 MPPs.

That’s because our winner-take-all system left many invisible Liberal voters outside the GTA unheard in the government
caucus. Like all those Alberta Liberals whose voices are seldom heard in Ottawa.

Winner-take-all voting

Winner-take-all voting systems notoriously favour party strongholds.
Voters living in them have an MPP in their party’s caucus. Others find no one at Queen’s Park to call.

Voters for parties with geographic strongholds elect governments with
false majorities, thanks to the seat bonus from their strongholds. Voters for
parties with no strongholds, like the Greens, have no voice at Queen’s Park

Proportional representation for Ontario

What would an Ontario PR system look like? Similar to the model
recommended by the Law Commission of Canada, and endorsed by the Ontario NDP
Convention Nov. 14.

It
preserves the traditional link between voter and MPP by keeping local riding
seats.

You will have
two votes. One is for your local MPP. The second helps
elect regional MPs, topping-up the numbers of MPs from your region so the total
is proportional to the votes for each party. You can cast a personal vote for a candidate within the regional list.

The majority of MPPs will still be elected in local ridings. Just over
40% of MPPs will be elected regionally in “top-up” regions.

Ontario
will have more MPPs. The new federal map gives Ontario 121 MPs, including nine
north of the French River. But all three parties have it very
clear that they are in favour of maintaining the 10 ridings north of the French
River, which makes 122 MPPs. However, constitutionally, most northern ridings
must be within 25% of the provincial average. To do this, southern Ontario (including
Muskoka District) will have to have seven more MPPs, bringing the total to 129.

A manufactured majority

In a truly democratic system, parties representing a true majority of
voters would have to work together. As former Attorney-General John Gerretsen
liked to say, “Nobody is ever 100-per-cent right
and nobody is ever 100-per-cent wrong. Governing is the art of compromise.
There’s nothing wrong with having the governing party take into account smaller
parties.”

From the voters’ point of view, this election was all about their
rejection of Tim Hudak’s platform. In the process, they accidentally elected a
government with a manufactured majority of MPPs supported by less than 39% of
voters. For the next four years, it has no legislative accountability to
representatives of the majority of voters.

2014 results

Between 2011 and 2014, the NDP vote share rose from 22.7% to 23.7%, the
Liberal vote share rose from 37.7% to 38.6%, and the Green vote share rose from
2.9% to 4.8%, while the PC vote share slid from 35.4% to 31.3%.

Those small swings gave the Liberals five more MPPs, and the NDP four,
while the PCs slid nine.

Parade of strongholds

The parade of strongholds continued.

In Central and Mid-east Ontario Progressive Conservative voters cast 39%
of those votes but elected seven of those 11 MPPs, 64%.

Although NDP voters elected seven more MPPs than
in 2011 (while also losing three seats), all but two of the seven new seats
were from their Southwestern Ontario stronghold (three), and their
Hamilton—Niagara and Northern strongholds (one each). In Northern Ontario NDP
voters cast 42% of those votes, but elected six of those ten MPPs, 60%.

Toronto Liberal voters cast 49% of the Toronto votes, but elected 91% of
Toronto’s MPPs, 20 of the 22. In Peel and Halton regions Liberal voters cast
46% of those votes, but elected ten of those 11 MPPs, 91%. In York and Durham
Regions, Liberal voters cast 43% of those votes, but elected eight of those 12
MPPs, 67%.

Fair results

Overall, a fair voting system would have let voters in 2014 elect 42
Liberals, 34 PCs, 26 New Democrats and five Greens. With 129 MPPs, that’s 51 Liberals, 41 PCs, 31 NDP, and six Greens.

This projection assumes voters voted as they did in 2014. In fact, more would have voted. And some would have voted differently
-- no more strategic voting. We would likely have seen different candidates --
more women, and more diversity of all kinds. We could have seen different parties.
Who knows who might have won real democratic elections?

Outside the
GTA

Outside the GTA, PC voters cast 33% of the
votes, yet elected 40% of the MPPs.

Southwest Ontario (London—Windsor)

Southwest Ontario Liberal voters in the 11 ridings of the London to
Windsor region cast 23% of those votes, but elected only one MPP. With the
model described here, they would have elected two more MPPs, such as Windsor’s
Teresa Piruzza and Chatham’sTerry Johnson, or London’s Nick
Steinburg or Woodstock’s Dan Moulton.

Northern Ontario

Northern Ontario Liberal voters would have elected one more MPP such as
Sudbury’s Andrew Olivier or North Bay’s Catherine Whiting. PC voters would have
elected one more MPP such as Kenora’s Randy Nickle or Timmins’ Steve Black.

Central and Mid-East Ontario
(Barrie—Kingston)

NDP voters in this region cast 18% of those votes but those silenced
voters elected no MPP. They would have elected two MPPs such as Kingston’s Mary
Rita Holland and Kawartha Lakes’ Don Abel, or Peterborough’s Sheila Wood or
Belleville’s Merrill Stewart or Orillia’s Doris Middleton. Liberal voters would
have elected another MPP such as Kawartha Lakes’ Rick Johnson or Belleville’s
Georgina Thompson. Green voters would have elected an MPP such as Huntsville’s
Matt Richter or Barrie’s Bonnie North.

Central West Ontario (Waterloo—Bruce)

NDP voters in this region cast 21% of those votes yet elected only one
MPP. They would have elected two more, such as Kincardine’s Jan Johnstone and
Kitchener’s Margaret Johnston or James Villeneuve, or
Cambridge’s Bobbi Stewart. Liberal voters would have elected one more MPP, such
as Listowel’s Stewart Skinner or Waterloo Region’s Wayne Wright. Green voters
would have elected an MPP, no doubt Leader Mike Schreiner.

Ottawa—Cornwall—Pembroke

NDP voters in the Ottawa-Cornwall-Pembroke region cast 14% of those
votes, yet elected no MPP. They would have elected two MPPs such as Ottawa’s
Jennifer McKenzie and Cornwall’s Elaine MacDonald, or Ottawa’s Hervé Ngamby or
Prescott’s Isabelle Sabourin. Green voters would have elected an MPP such as Dave
Bagler or Kevin O'Donnell.

Hamilton—Niagara

PC
voters in this region would have elected two more MPPs such as Niagara Falls’
Bart Maves and Burlington’s Jane McKenna or Ancaster’s Donna Skelly. Green
voters would have elected an MPP such as Hamilton’s Peter Ormond or
Beamsville’s Basia Krzyzanowski.

GTA:

Across the GTA, NDP voters cast 20% of the
votes, but elected only 9% of the MPPs. Progressive Conservative voters cast
28% of the votes but elected only 7% of the MPPs. The PC caucus has no representative of the 205,996 Toronto PC voters,
and only three from the rest of the GTA.

Central
Toronto—Scarborough

In those 11 ridings, NDP voters cast 26% of
the votes but elected 9% of the MPPs. PC voters cast 20% of those votes, but
elected no MPPs. With the model described here, NDP
voters would have elected two more MPPs such as Michael Prue and Jonah Schein
or Rosario Marchese or Jessie Macaulay or Neethan Shan. PC voters would have
elected three such as Liang Chen (she is an Associate Dean at the
University of Toronto Scarborough campus, an Accounting professor with a Ph.D.
from OISE), Justine Deluce and Raymond Cho or Ken Kirupa. Green Party voters
would have elected an MPP such as Tim Grant or Rachel Power.

North York—Etobicoke-York

In those 11 ridings, NDP voters cast 19% of the
votes but elected only one MPP. PC voters cast 27% of the votes but elected no
MPPs. NDP
voters would have elected another MPP such as Tom Rakocevic, Paul Ferreira or
Nigel Barriffe. PC voters would have elected four MPPs such as Doug
Holyday, Robin Martin (she is a lawyer and Government Relations Consultant), Michael Ceci and Pina Martino or Avi Yufest or Angela
Kennedy.

Peel—Halton

NDP voters in this
region would have elected two more MPPs such as Brampton’s Gurpreet Dhillon and
Gugni Gill Panaich or Mississauga’s Michelle Bilek or Fayaz Karim, or Oakville's Che Marville. PC voters
cast 29% of the votes in this region, but elected no one. They would have
elected four MPPs such as Oakville’s Larry
Scott, Milton’s Ted Chudleigh, and Mississauga’s Effie
Triantafilopoulos and Jeff White, or Mississauga’s Nina Tangri or Brampton’s Amarjeet
Gill. Green voters would have elected an MPP such as Brampton’s Pauline
Thornham or Oakville’s Andrew Chlobowski.

York—Durham

NDP voters in this region would have elected
two more MPPs such as Holland Landing’s Laura Bowman and Whitby’s Ryan Kelly or
Markham’sNadine Kormos Hawkins or
Thornhill’s Cindy Hackelberg or Clarington’s
Derek Spence. PC
voters would have elected three more MPPs such as Stouffville’s Farid Wassef,
Newmarket’s Jane Twinney, and Bowmanville’s Mike Patrick, or Vic Gupta from
Richmond Hill, or Markham’s Shan Thayaparan.

No central party direction

Back in 2007, Ontario voters did not support a proposal for the Mixed Member
Proportional (MMP) system modelled on the one used in Germany and New Zealand,
with closed province-wide lists for the additional “top-up” MPPs. This failure
was no surprise to the Jenkins Commission. Jenkins said top-up MPs locally
anchored to small areas are “more easily assimilable into the political culture
and indeed the Parliamentary system than would be a flock of unattached birds
clouding the sky and wheeling under central party directions.”

Fair Vote Canada says “The supporters of all candidates and
political parties must be fairly represented in our legislatures in proportion
to votes cast.”

Competing MPPs

The Law Commission model would give citizens competing MPs: a
local MPP, and a few regional MPPs from a “top-up region” based in their area.
Scotland uses regions of 16 MPs, Wales 12. I’m assuming a typical Ontario region
would have 13 MPPs: eight local, five regional “top-up.” These regions are large enough that voters
for every major party would be represented in every region. Generally, with
more MPPs, ten of today’s ridings become seven larger local ridings.

Fair Vote Canada says “We must
give rural and urban voters in every province, territory and regional community
effective votes and fair representation in both government and opposition.”

More voter choice

There's more. With two votes, you can vote for the party you want in
government. And you can also vote for the local candidate you like best
regardless of party, without hurting your party, since it's the second ballot
that determines the party make-up of the legislature. About 32% of voters split
their ballots this way in New Zealand’s last election with a similar system.

Fair Vote Canada says “A
democratic voting system must encourage citizens to exercise positive choice by
voting for the candidate or party they prefer.”

Power to the voters
An exciting prospect: voters have new power to elect who they like. New voices
from new forces in the legislature, more voter choice. No one party rolls the
dice and wins an artificial majority. Cooperation will have a higher value than
vitriolic rhetoric. One-party dominance by the Premier’s office will, at last,
be out of fashion. Governments will have to listen to MPPs, and MPPs will have
to really listen to the people. MPPs can act as the public servants they are
supposed to be.

Regional MPPs

Who would those regional MPPs be? First, each party would hold regional
nomination meetings and/or vote online to nominate their regional candidates.
These would often be the same people nominated locally, plus a few additional
regional candidates. The meeting would decide what rank order each would have
on the regional ballot. But then voters in the region would have the final
choice.

Clearly this model would allow fair
representation of Ontario’s political diversity in each region.

Polls show that 90% of Canadian voters would like to see more women
elected. If they can choose from several of their party's regional candidates,
they'll almost certainly elect more women. And as long as a party is nominating at least five regional candidates, you
can expect them to nominate a diverse group. With four regional MPs from a
region, and seven local MPs, a major party would want more than five regional
candidates, since any candidates who win local seats are removed from
contention for regional seats.

This model would help reflect in the
Legislature the diversity of society, removing barriers to the nomination and
election of candidates from groups now underrepresented including women,
cultural minorities and Aboriginals. For example, the PC caucus would be far
more diverse.

Technical notesThis model was described in more detail by Prof. Henry Milner at an
electoral reform conference Feb. 21, 2009, where he recommended 14-MP regions.
A similar "open-list" model is used in the German province of Bavaria
and was proposed by Scotland's Arbuthnott Commission in 2006.

The rounding method used in the simulation is highest remainder, for the
same reason the Ontario Citizens Assembly chose it: it's the simplest. Germany
used to use this too, on the premise that it offset the risk to proportionality
of the 5% threshold. Similarly it offsets any small region sizes. With top-up regions of about 13 MPPs each, the results are very close to perfect
proportionality. Green Party voters elect the six MPPs they deserve. Due to
rounding effects over 10 regions, the Liberals get a bonus of one MPP at the
cost of the PCs.The Law Commission recommended that the right to nominate candidates for
regional top-up seats should be limited to those parties which have candidates
standing for election in at least one-third of the ridings within the top-up
region. This prevents a possible distortion of the system by parties pretending
to split into twin decoy parties for the regional seats, the trick which
Berlusconi invented to sabotage Italy’s voting system.

About Me

Although I am a member of Fair Vote Canada's Council at the federal level, the views expressed on this blog are my own.
I have been a lawyer since 1971, an elected school trustee from 1982 to 1994, past chair of the Board of the Northumberland Community Legal Centre, and so on.