Futurists
Lay Out 2016 Agenda

Brandon
Sun “Small World” Column, Monday, January 4 / 16Zack Gross

A
scan of websites maintained by influential magazines, government
departments and intellectual organizations shows that, at this
time of year, a number one priority is laying out predictions
for the year now upon us. Having checked out Forbes and
Fortune as economic and technological trend indicators, and The
Independent and The Futurist as more political and academic, one
has a sense of what might happen in the coming year or two.

Some journalists, leaders and thinkers will go so far as to
predict the next decade or two. What is helpful in these
predictions is that they make you think – they may not always be
correct, but they certainly are interesting, challenging and,
ultimately, involve us in making the world what we want it to
be, or at least observing history in the making in our
lifetimes.

The 2016 prediction list of what might happen includes the
continuation of many stories that have recently been playing
out. Here is a list of the most noticeable and/or interesting
possibilities:

* The United
States and its allies will continue to struggle in their
relationship with Russia, in part because of the invasion and
partial annexation of Ukraine. It is, in many ways, the
continuation of the Cold War that began as World War II ended in
1945 and then lasted until the Soviet “Empire” fell in
1989. After some early years of instability, Russia has
attempted to regain some of its former stature and even
territory.

* The world will
continue to transition from the Pax Americana that began when
Russia fell to an Asia-centric world, based on the growing
global economic reach of China, India and Japan. President
Obama and then President Clinton (another prediction) will want
to be seen as world leaders but will find it hard in a weak
economy and with much internal turmoil as we have seen from both
climate change and racial and homegrown terror violence (two
more predictions).

* Western Asia and
the Middle East, along with some African countries, will
continue to be failed states without governments that are able
to control all their national territory and with warring
factions continuing to accelerate the on-going refugee
crisis. The countries in question include Afghanistan,
Libya, Syria and the trouble may spread to others. Europe
will struggle in dealing with the influx of displaced people and
this, along with possibly more terror attacks, will make the
European community less stable.

* Technological
advancement will continue to impact upon our lives, affecting
how we educate our children, how we communicate and how we get
around. There will be more “driverless” cars, more drones
in use, more internet and on-line learning in the classroom, and
more “virtual” medical check-ups. One downside will be more
cyber-attacks globally and more account hacking personally.

* 2016 will be the
hottest year on record. While 195 nations at the Paris
Climate Change Summit recently agreed to fight global warming in
real terms and cooperatively, a combination of the natural El
Niņo cycle and our own human-made impact on the environment mean
that scientists predict a 95% chance that 2016 will be hotter in
average temperatures than any year before. Extreme weather
events, from scorching heat, drought and wildfires in some parts
of the world, to unrelenting rain and flooding in other parts
will be the result.

* Business
observers note that the number of female corporate CEOs in our
wealthy parts of the world have declined in recent years, but
that women corporate board members have increased. They
predict that the trend will continue with more women being
influential in the business sector. In electoral politics,
women are also a growing factor. Our own recent federal
election illustrates that point with half the Cabinet being
female. Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, women were able to
vote recently for the first time in local council elections and
some were appointed by their King to his advisory bodies.

* For those
excited about our new Liberal federal government's support, at
least in the election campaign, for the legalization of
marijuana, predictions are that, with almost 60% of Americans
supportive of this as well – and with the huge tax revenues
possible from the sale of pot – many states, as well as our own
country, could make legalization a fact in the coming year.

What is satisfying about some prediction websites is that they
report on where they were correct and where they got it wrong
last time, and why. The old Chinese saying, “May you live
in interesting times” certainly applies!Zack Gross is a former
Executive Director of the Marquis
Project in Brandon.