Recession Probability: 100% Guaranteed

Recession Probability: 100% Guaranteed

The comments above & below is an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Jeff Opdyke

In the world of fake news and alternative facts, here one truth you can bank on: There will be – guaranteed – an economic crisis, and probably soon.

Throughout US economic/political history, every two-term president has left behind an economic crisis for his predecessor to deal with – every single one.

So, the question we must answer is not: “Will Donald Trump lead us into a recession or depression?” It’s: “WHEN will Donald Trump lead us into a recession or depression?”

History says it’s likely to be soon. Probably within the year.

Though past performance does not reflect the future, it does hint at what’s likely. And today there are simply too many headwinds for the US economy, despite the media insisting that all is well. It is not. There are clear and present danger signs flashing their warnings all over the US economy.

The US consumer is a 98-pound weakling strutting around Muscle Beach like he/she owns the sand and waves. A comeuppance is brewing – and it promises to bring pain to the US economy.

In summary: Every two-term president in history has left their predecessor dealing with a recession or depression early in the predecessor’s first term; history doesn’t play favorites, so it will be no different for Donald Trump; the consumer is weak, while bank loans and manufacturing hint at unseen weakness; prepare your portfolio now for what’s on the way.

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Gold demand of 973.5t was the lowest Q1 since 2008. The main cause was a fall in investment demand for gold bars and gold-backed ETFs, partly due to range-bound gold prices. Jewellery demand was steady at 487.7t, as growth in China and the US compensated for weaker Indian demand.