Peace, Love and Thunderstanding: The Jeff Green Conundrum

It has come to my attention over the past few weeks that the most controversial player on the Thunder roster is the one least likely to stir up controversy.

Drafted in 2007 with the 5th overall pick acquired from Boston in the Ray Allen trade, Jeff Green was an afterthought to Sonics fans excited by the selection of Kevin Durant about fifteen minutes prior. Of course, much of the reason Sam Presti tabbed “Uncle Jeff” (as his teammates have been known to refer to him) with the second draft choice of his general managing career had everything to do with Green being satisfied with playing second fiddle. The draft was just a warm-up for him.

Every successful superstar in the NBA seems to need a less heralded companion who does all the dirty work while they make the headlines. Bill Russell had Bob Cousy. Tim Duncan has had Manu Ginobili. Kareem had Magic (then vice versa). Oh, and some guy named Michael Jordan used to play with this Scottie Pippen person.

Scottie Pippen is the gold standard for side kicks. When the 1990’s Bulls won six championships in eight years, Pippen did such an amazing job of being unassuming that everyone assumed he was unambitious. While Michael Jordan won scoring title after scoring title and built a multi billion dollar persona, Pippen simply reduced the pressure from Jordan on the floor and shouldered the fan’s blame when the team failed.

The Thunder hope that Jeff Green develops into a Scottie Pippen type of player. Not just in his approach to professionalism, which I would argue he already does perfectly, but also his production on the floor. For his career he averaged 16 points per game, but during Chicago’s glory days, he always hovered near twenty as the second option in their offense.

Looking at the two players’ third year stats, they are actually pretty close. Green is averaging 14.7 to Pippen’s 16.5 points, and in rebounds Pippen led 6.5 to 6.1. So, while Green could still improve upon or drop some in the last three-quarters of this season, he is not completely off pace.

You would not get that if you listen to the vocal detractors that are spawning. As the Thunder have enjoyed more and more success, some of the fans have been willing to give less and less of the credit to the team’s co-captain. Listening to the litany of complaints about Green–he’s inconsitent, too small, unworthy of starting, and a defensive liability–it’s sometimes forgotten that he’s the second best player on a team with playoff aspirations.

Of all the criticisms I hear about Green, the one I take most exception to, and what most of the other complaints stem from, is the implication that he isn’t a power forward. My response to that is: What is a power forward?

Is a power forward a guy who dominates the glass, like Dennis Rodman, or a scorer, like Zach Randolph? And if he is a scorer, does a power forward post up like Karl Malone, or play on the perimeter like Dirk Nowitzki? Does a four need to be seven-feet tall, like Tim Duncan, or can he be 6’6″ (on a good day) like Charles Barkley. And is a power forward thick, like Tractor Traylor, or rail-thin, like Kevin Garnett?

The truth is, all of those guys play (or played) the same position despite drastic differences. There is no proto-type to being a power forward, but the people who write Jeff Green off as not fitting that position all seem to believe that one exists. And their trump card is always that Green is too small to defend other players of that position.

So, I went through the exercise of testing that theory. Looking at the first 23 games of the 2009/10 season, in which Green has started every game at the power forward position, I looked at the output of the guy who started opposite of him. The aggregate player scores 12.0 points, grabs 7.0 rebounds, has 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks, and has 2 assists to 1.7 turnovers. On an average night, those same players would have scored 13.3 points, grabbed 7.7 rebounds, and had similar numbers the rest of the way. When smoothed out using per minute numbers (to eliminate the problem of players who weren’t everyday starters) the averages are almost identical to the first line.

My expectation going in, using the detractors null hypothesis, was that players being guarded by Green would be having career games against Oklahoma City. What I found was that only two guys have had extremely good nights, and those two are always capable of domination. Carlos Boozer scored 26 (on 11 of 15 shooting) in a Jazz loss, and Kevin Garnett went 10 of 11 for 23 points in a Celtic blowout. Other than that, no one’s night really stuck out. The other thing to expect, considering Green is supposedly giving up so much size, is that the players would be shooting a ton of free throws. In actuality, Green’s match-ups are getting very little time at the line. Only one player, Washington’s Antawn Jamison, has gotten as many as seven free throws in a single game…and he only made three, so it may have been in Coach Brooks’ strategy to foul him rather than give up good looks. On average, opposing power forwards are going to the line for 2.4 shots.

In the end, the worst you could say about Green’s defensive performance is that he’s only slightly above average because his match-ups are only doing slightly less than what they would do against anyone else. But meanwhile, Jeff Green is being the captain of this team, outplaying his opposition, and reducing the pressure on Kevin Durant.

I think fewer people should be criticizing him and more should be buying “Go Green” shirts from Tree and Leaf.

Don't anyone get me wrong, I actually really like Green (tonight didn't hurt). I think he's facing a lot of pressure as the second option and his shooting is really suffering. I want to see how he'll do in a lineup with Harden. But Ibaka in place of Green or Kristic may be worth trying. For now, subbing Ibaka in for either one depending on circumstances gives some flexibility. The rotation of Green, Kris, Serge, & Nick has some real potential at the 4-5. But Green has got to shoot better! I had no idea he was the lowest %age jump shooter of the starters.

Can't change it but I see that Kevin Love, the pick after Westbrook, is smashin' it since coming make from injury- 14 pts, 12 rebs a game, hitting the 3 now, great Adjusted +/-. Just 8 games but a passing mention of another could've been.

It might change, it should change, but at this pace they will try the starting lineup with Harden over Thabo only about 100 minutes for the entire season. Same for the starting lineup with Collison over Green. They are the two best performing lineups used more than 20 minutes. They used the starters with both Harden and Collison 35 minutes and it was ordinary. Now you gotta decide if you are sticking with Nick in the mix or not. If not then trying White, Ibaka and eventually Mullens is more important long-term. But there is no way around it Harden is a bigger piece of the future and I'd want to see more of it this season.

Not that it really matters to anyone else but when I said that I had occasionally played with "future pros" I should have that it was very occasional I could get into such an "AA or AAA" game (they would have to just need another guy to balance things and have no alternative) and I meant draft picks, training camp invites, NBA short-timers and guys who were pros in Europe. I never played with anyone that famous beyond college.

To me, there is no point in building a team except to think long-term, always with an eye on competing for a championship. Some teams do not do this--they settle for being in the middle of the pack year after year, hoping for incremental improvement or lightning in a bottle (winning the lottery, trading a bag of popcorn for Pau Gasol). This is the main reason Kristic gets a pass--he's pretty much a known commodity, is going to be a complementary scorer at best, and is ultimately best destined to be a back-up on this team. I still want to see him develop a 3-point shot, though, and take it inside sometimes, because he's pretty good when he does, but he needs help opening up the paint. Right now, Durant/Green are not the perfect complement (as Jax claims), because they're hitting 30% from 3. Green is also hurting the team with his 30% field goal average on 2-point jumpers. Kristic is hitting at 41%. If anyone is going to open up the middle, Kristic will do it for Green, not the other way around (as things stand right now). The other reason Kristic gets a pass is that he plays his role very well and hits that pick and pop jumper with regularity (yeah, some games more than others). Right now he is more consistent than Green, even if he is more predictable. He has what you want out of a role player--do one or two things, consistently, very well, and the rest, adequately.

Green, as opposed to Kristic, is seen by many as a key part of the core. So I'm always thinking, are we going to win a championship with Green as our starting power forward? I believe his defense is good enough, in the right scheme, for this to be possible, but that his defense at that position will never be good enough alone to justify him starting. Where he needs to be above average is on the offensive end. We have seen pretty clearly that while he can have dominant plays, he is not going to be a dominant individual scorer. So the question becomes, where can he excel on offense while minimizing his liabilities?He has the potential to excel driving against slower pfs, shooting the 3, passing within a motion offense, potentially in p-n-r or p-n-p, but probably not with Westbrook. Our best ball handler to initiate that play would seem to be Harden, because of his superior outside shooting. But the only way to evaluate how Harden is going to mesh with Green and the rest of the offense is to get them in there together.

As I wrote this, I started to wonder, just how bad is Green as a jump shooter? Right now, Green is a liability on offense because he is hitting 30% on his jumpers, all of them (2s & 3s), all over the court, and they constitute 63% of his shots. By contrast, Durant is hitting 42% of his 2-pt jumpers, Westbrook 35%, and Sefolosha 30% (Kristic 41%). That's right, Green is a worse jump shooter than Westbrook. Green is a worse jump shooter than Sefolosha (because Sef is hitting .326 on 3s). Green is the worst jump shooter of the starters. That is a real problem.

Our offense is a REAL conundrum. As a team, we're hitting .311 on 3s. Our starters are hitting .298. Which is pretty bad. And yet, every starter's % on 2pt jump shots is below their eFG% on 3s (except Kristic). So our best strategy (all else equal) is to take 3s instead of 2s. No mid-range jumpers at all (except Kristic). Either shoot the 3 or take it to the hole.

That’s actually a pretty common strategy for many teams (Phoenix, Cleveland, Orlando come to mind). The thing is, many if not most teams have a few guys who are as good or better on mid-range jumpers as they are on 3s (I’m just asserting that, but I believe it’s true). Good enough not to hurt their team when they take that shot. A lot of those guys are power forwards. Green is not one of them.

I didn’t know this about Green when I sat down to write. I just looked at the stats. I don’t even know all the stat sites, so I had to extrapolate this from 82games and basketball-reference. Green is the worst jump shooter of the starters. He may be the worst on the team! (OK probably not.) I know he was better last year. He has got to improve. If he doesn’t get better, he cannot be a starter on this team, because what else does he bring to the table?

The team must begin letting Harden start, and play minutes with the starters. We need to see if they can mesh as well as we hope they will on offense. We need to see if Harden will take some of the pressure off of Green, and to some extent, Westbrook and Durant, and see if that will help them raise their shooting percentages. If Green doesn’t get better with Harden in the lineup, we will need to find another power forward to start for this team. I believe he can get better, even that he will get better, if through nothing other than regression to the mean. But we need to see enough improvement in his shooting percentage on jumpers that he is no longer an offensive liability. I know I’m a broken record, but he is hitting 30%. He will never get to the rack, and he will never be a viable starter as a power forward in the league, if he can’t hit a jumper to save his life. That’s where Jeff Green currently stands. And that’s why, right now, Jeff Green approaching Scotty Pippen is a pipe dream, pure fantasy, wishful thinking. He should be about an inch from losing his starting job to Nick Collison.

Damn good post if you ask me and he highlights a really good move where he pivots around the defender and is able to make an easy layup. I hope the Thunder exploit this and don't rely on jump shooting all the time anymore. I know we're still building and learning but incorporating post up moves should be that hard since it's basically an iso play and everyone waits for a chance to shoot one of our patented long range jump shots if the post player gets double teamed. Oh well, all in good time I hope.

I'm ignorant on Krstic's post up game. I didn't see him play in NJ, nor in Europe. But it seems to me that if he does have a post game, and we're not using it, then we're not doing ourselves any favors.

To me, if Krstic has a post up game, then Green/Durant is the perfect compliment to that, since they are a threat from the corner 3. If the other team's PF has to come that far out to guard Green's outside shot, that should leave Krstic with single coverage to post up down on the block. That should be an easy entry pass for Green to make.

@Jax Raging Bile DuctI suppose I can accept that the team has to be brought along slowly. They are young, its just frustrating to watch them make such a vast improvement defensively and yet still be so weak on the other side of the ball. As much of a downer as it is to admit it, this year is still a building year. Despite any playoff aspirations we have (and it would be awesome), its more important that we build up to our future playoff runs. We are definitely ahead of schedule as a team. There are clearly more improvements that need to be made. As long as the coaching staff realizes that and doesn't get complacent, I can handle some bad offensive sets in the sort term.And your comment on Thabo and Krstic is definitely true. Clearly the development of Harden and an increased role for him can help a lot in that respect. Although Krstic can be a decent offensive player. If I remember things I've read correctly, Krstic actually posted up pretty effectively in Eurobasket against good competition. I guess it comes back to your earlier point, we just don't really try to post Krstic or Green. I think that's something that could be easily fixed without a dramatic increase in the complexity of the offense, at least make an attempt to post those guys now and again. It seems like, especially in the case of Green, we might want to find out if there's any hope of having a decent interior scorer. In spite of all our assets, I just don't like assuming a good post scorer is going to fall into our laps, so I feel like we should at least try to develop that in somebody that we currently have. Unless they've already decided that Green simply isn't capable, which wouldn't make me particularly happy.

In my mind, you have two guys to do one job. One of them has to do that job. One of them isn't capable, the other might be capable. So we throw all this angst and ire at the guy who might be capable, when the guy who isn't capable gets a free pass. I don't think that's fair.

1) Green is supposed to have a high ceiling and Krstic has pretty much hit his. If we want to see meaningful change, it probably has to come from Green.

2) Media outlets don't spend as much time talking about how good Krstic is, but we get to hear a lot about Green (2008 All-Rookie team, 2009 Rookie/Sophomore game participant, chatter about possible inclusion on future Olympic/World Championship teams + participant on the USA basketball practice team)

3) Krstic never sounded like more than a stop-gap (at least to me.) He has a short contract that ends before we'd have a team ready for a deep playoff run (next year is his last per his player option), while Green is consistently mentioned as part of our team's future core players. If Krstic is resigned to a longer deal, then he stops getting a pass (from me anyway)

I'm right there with you on the offensive schemes. Jeff can do well in some games offensively, but he's inconsistent. He's still a better offensive option than Russell is though.

I just have to believe that a more complex offensive scheme is in the works, but the staff chose to focus on defense first. They also have some young guys, and you can't give them too much at once, you have to bring them along. I fully believe that they pick and choose their battles with Russell already, and I think some of his bad habits are tolerated now, but they won't be in the future.

Thabo and Krstic hurt what we can do on offense. Neither can create their own offense, and in Thabo's case, if we set him up with a shot, he doesn't want to take it, and the defense knows it. At least Krstic will take that shot, and if he's hot that game, he's a good option. So I think if we can get to the spot where we aren't playing 3 on 5 offensively, we'll see vast improvements.

Keith :Our defensive system is working. We rebound well, so that system is working. It’s our offensive system that isn’t working well. That’s the system that needs some upgrades.When those upgrades are in place, then we’ll see how valuable our players really are.

Better offensive system will help some--but I don't see how we get above average with our specific starting combo, no matter the system. The more I think about it, the more I think Harden needs to start asap, even if it means more losses in the short run.

This thread is awesome. Very intelligent. Anyway, I'm fully with Jax on the defense/rebounding side of Jeff. Our defense and rebounding system work, far better than anybody would expect. Jeff plays a bunch of minutes on a team that is 6th in defensive efficiency and a solid rebounding team with Nenad Krstic as its starting center. He has to be doing something right. As long as the system works, I have no quabble with Jeff's defense and rebounding.Which is why his offense is so frustrating to me. Yes, it can be argued that he is simply playing withing the offensive system that the coaches have set forth. But our offensive system does not work. The reasons are manifold: simplistic, lack of three point shoot, no inside presence. But on this side of the ball, Jeff is part of a system that ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency. My eye test says that Durant is doing what he can, Thabo is doing what he can, and Krstic is what he is. Russell and Jeff are the two players with the most ability to improve our offensive efficiency by improving their games. They have the potential to do so, I think that is something that we can all agree on. The "following the system" argument only goes so far for me here, as I refuse to believe the system insists on RW shooting pull up jumpers. I just do. The system may not properly punish him for it, but I don't believe that it is part of the system So if the system tolerates that, something that cannot be part of the system, I'm sure it would tolerate Jeff Green going inside more often, at least by attacking the basket against those power forwards that he is supposed to create matchup problems for.

I'd also like to see Kristic develop a 3-point shot. Why does he never take that shot (0-1 on the season)? He has good enough form to at least hit over 30%, and he takes so many jumpers (70%), why not develp that option?? 30% from 3 is better than 41% on 2, which is what he is hitting... and there's no reason he couldn't do better than 30. Is there?

Where Green is really hurting himself and the team this year offensively is with jump shots. He is hitting basically the same percentage (30%) of his jumpers inside as outside the 3-pt line. Plus that is 63% of his shots (pretty well split 50/50 between 2/3 pointers). That's letting the defense dictate where the shot comes from. If Green cannot improve his jump shooting that is a real problem, because he does not project as someone likely to get 50% of his attempts from in close. He needs to do one or the other.

Keith :Inside/outside game can be a bonus, but only if it’s properly utilized. Look at Rasheed Wallace and Rashard Lewis. Rasheed and Rashard are inside/outside players, who can do everything. But, if you look, both only worked in specific situations. Detroit fans hated ‘Sheed for his later years because, despite being a very good defender, he killed the offense with his penchant for taking threes/jumpers instead of beating smaller guys in the post. Rashard was a tweener, Sonics fans felt similar to Detroit fans with ‘Sheed, but when he went to Orlando and played next to Howard, his skillset became a huge plus. Green suffers from being a tweener forward in an offensive system that can’t really support his skills.Our system is pretty dumbed down, to put it lightly, likely in part because Westbrook is learning on the job. Further, we have absolutely no inside presence, so there is no one getting easy shots (consistently) or drawing defenders away from the perimeter. Unfortunately, we are a very perimeter oriented team, and thus we are very easy to defend. Simple offense + no spacing = bad efficiency. I think, much moreso than Green, Krstic needs to be replaced. Green is obviously has the skill to score from a lot of places, and the athleticism at least to become an above average defender at PF. Krstic can score in 2 places, and both of them only work if someone else sets up the shot for him. We need someone, anyone, who can draw defensive attention on his own around the basket.

I agree with this. I said earlier in this thread that I don't understand why Krstic gets a pass. Just because he's already reached his potential isn't a good reason. IF he has reached his potential, it's not good enough, and he needs to go.

Our defensive system is working. We rebound well, so that system is working. It's our offensive system that isn't working well. That's the system that needs some upgrades.

When those upgrades are in place, then we'll see how valuable our players really are.

justin :@Jax Raging Bile DuctI understand your position that “Jeff Green isn’t asked to do those things”, but that’s kind of preposterous. The switching defense we use mucks things up at times, but in general when Jeff Green is guarding his man (presumably a PF, so most of the time closer to the basket), he’s responsible for getting rebound position to either get the rebound himself or box out his man to prevent him from getting the rebound. The fact that opposing PF’s get 12.4 rebounds PER48 when Jeff Green is in the game shows me that there’s something wrong there.

I take offense to your saying that I'm being preposterous. It's clearly not preposterous as you said yourself the defensive switching mucks things up. How many times have you seen Jeff take Russell's man off the switch? Several times a game. I don't see how you can claim he's close to the basket only guarding a PF most of the time. He's clearly not.

I'm with you on the rebounding rate. Positionally, the way our defense is constructed, Russell is in position as much as Jeff is for the rebound. Is that Jeff's fault? No. Jeff is playing his part in the system. A defensive system that is ranked 6th in the league. That system spreads out the rebounding duty. Our PG gets more than usual, our PF does not, but as a team we rebound very well.

I'm saying that Jeff is more the product of that system. The numbers tell a story, and you seem to want that story to say that Jeff Green is an average player at best. That's fine if you feel that way, but I don't think that's the full story. I think there is a system to consider.

The league isn't impressed with David Lee, because they think his numbers are inflated due to D'Antonie's system. I agree with that assessment. I think it applies to Jeff Green to a large extent.

The bottom line is if we can win with what Jeff Green brings to the table. Rashard isn't prototypical, but Orlando wins with him. In fact, a prototypical PF wouldn't probably help Orlando much. If we can win with Jeff Green playing his role in our system, then I don't care if his prototypical PF numbers don't match the mean.

Keith sez "Further, we have absolutely no inside presence, so there is no one getting easy shots (consistently) or drawing defenders away from the perimeter. Unfortunately, we are a very perimeter oriented team, and thus we are very easy to defend. Simple offense + no spacing = bad efficiency. "

Hmmm, Keith, I have to politely disagree re. having no one to draw defenders from the perimiter. The biggest problem (I think) in drawing defenders and with respect to spacing is the lack of 3-point shooting. We are not effectively drawing teams out of the paint, especially when it matters. There were times in both the Denver and Dallas game when it looked like guys were afraid to shoot (other than Durant, who seldom looks that way). I agree we could use better interior presence--but even Green and Kristic could be better in that respect if teams couldn't sag off the perimeter. It's difficult, and a bit unfair, to try to judge Green's offensive performance in a vaccum. PART of our poor inside showing is due to the fact that neither guard is a deadly threat from 3. If we're going to start Thabo, it would really help if Westbrook were a strong perimeter threat. And vice-versa. Right now, our 3 best outside threats are the forwards and center. It's hard to build an efficient offense with that configuration. Long-term, subbing Harden for Thabo is the way to go, and get to the point where the offensive improvement outweighs whatever defensive liability is there. Fortunately, it looks like Harden can be an above-average defender, and he appears to be the perfect compliment to the rest of the team on offense. If he can consistently hit the 3 and demand defensive attention, that alone will make Green and Kristic much more effective.

I love Thabo, but I don't see an efficient offense coming out of the combination of Thabo and Westbrook. Ever. The team's best hope is to get to average by cutting down on turnovers. Above-average will require a personnel change, and Harden alone could completely change the offensive effectiveness. Of course, introducing a few more plays and offensive creativity would help at that point, as well.

I love what the team is doing on defense (and frankly, I'm a bit shocked!). But I don't see this team being a top-5 defense (though top-10, for sure) or building its identity around defense in the long run. They have better potential to be a top-5 offense--but they have a long way to go. Green could be a part of that, but it's hard to evaluate as long as Westbrook and Thabo are playing together.

justin :I don’t like this article at all.First, you compare Jeff Green to Scottie Pippen, one of the 50 greatest players in NBA history. Scottie Pippen was shooting close to 50% from the field and had a PG like assist percentage by his third year. He was also a brilliant defender and made his mark that year which paved the way to his countless selections to All NBA Defense teams. Your assertion that Jeff Green is remotely within striking distance of Scottie Pippen’s production, even in his third season, is an insult to Scottie Pippen.Secondly, you assert that Jeff Green is, “outproducing his opposition” which is blatantly false. According to 82games.com, when Jeff Green is at PF he has an eFG% of .488, 19.6 points, 7.2 rebounds per 48 minutes. The opposing PF has an eFG% .533, 20.7 points, 12.4 rebounds per 48. In other words, Jeff Green’s opposition at PF dominates him on the boards and even scores more efficiently. There are more numbers at 82games that illustrate this point further, but your suggestion that Jeff Green out produces the opposing PF is ludicrous.I would like to know where you pulled those numbers from in your column regarding Jeff Green’s opponent’s stats.Lastly, you are asking ‘what is a PF’? A traditional power forward is a player that can rebound, defend his position, and generally scores at a high percentage. The problem with Jeff Green is that he does none of these things well. He’s a poor rebounder, and as Crow pointed out, his TS% and scoring efficiency closely resembles that of other SF’s playing out of position, or jump shooting PF’s.And the big problem with Green on the post isn’t his height, it’s his length. James freakin’ Harden is as long as Jeff Green, he’s not going to be a good rebounder or effective at posting up most PF’s without the length to get his shot off.

Crow :Not sure who should get the most credit for the good defense inside. But I’d guess almost everyone probably deserves a share. Certainly including coaching / management.Hope they can / will do the same in game 70 as game 20.

Answer are based on memory and perception and will likely be tilted by my own bias.

1) I haven't seen it happen with any regularity to say one way or the other. The Thunder don't set a lot of picks or screens in general with the exception of the Durant/Krstic top of the key pick (which hasn't been terribly successful lately.)

I don't really like Durant handling the ball on a drive. When he gets to the rack, he's usually fed shortly before he gets to the hole, or when he's in an iso from the corner and just beats his man.

I don't think I've ever seen Green handle the ball off a pick, but I want to see if he can do it. If he could run this play, it would add tremendously to his value, at least in my eyes.

Westbrook should be doing this all the time. It drives me nuts that we rarely see it. Saw it a lot more last season.

2) Thabo is probably the best player on our team as far as effectively moving without the ball on a consistent basis. I'm sure he's learned a lot of tricks guarding the people he does. His problem is he isn't consistent enough scoring to cause the other team to pay much attention to him.

The other team likes to put a free safety defender on him (when they could, the Mavs were using Kidd to guard Thabo). And even when he does hit his shot from the outside, there's still not much consistency, and as soon as he misses, it seems like his confidence is shot. He wants nothing to do with the ball after that.

When he pulls it out, I've been very impressed with his dribble drives to the hoop. He can be really aggressive.

3) I think that snowballs the issue. Especially since Thabo is usually guarding the player who can't be given any space. Fewer moving parts the better, Russ just needs to learn when to go under and when to go over. He rarely fights through screens.

5) I love Harden between Westbrook and Durant. Even though I wanted a point guard, I wasn't terribly upset when he was drafted. I figured that if we were committed to playing Russ at the point, at least we'd have a distributing 2 guard to take the pressure off him. Harden is the best passer on our team, period. Great vision. He passes well from anywhere to anywhere. Perimeter to post, post to post, post to perimeter; he's gold. Sometimes, he passes too much, but even in that regard he's hardly the team's worst offender.

The Spurs have followed your greater emphasis on offense tact Keith. Maybe too far for them. It is borderline.

Dallas has gone the other way.

Both sides are important. Be top 10 in both, you got a legit shot and it comes down to how you match up to the specific opponents. Be much outside top 10 on either you probably get knocked off eventually but someone in both tens.

Just to make the playoffs being very good on one side might be enough. Mainly in the east though.

@dylanYay! This doesnt have anything to do with this current convo but I just successfully got LOTI to call me a jock sniffer! He didn't respond at all to what I said but just the hope that I annoyed him a little bit made my night.

Turnovers are a big part. This team does not take good care of the ball. Though, in that respect, Green does quite a fine job. The biggest culprits, individually are Westbrook and Durant. People like to show how all the top turnover players (or just many), are some of the best players in the league. That's a fine stat comparison, but it severely overlooks exactly how much top players are used, and how effectively they use possessions otherwise. It's one thing for Lebron, who gets tons of free throws and hits over 50% of his shots anyway, to turn it over 3-4 times while holding the ball on 80% of his team's possessions. It's entirely another for Westbrook, who is a terrible shooter and currently average assist man. To a lesser degree true of Durant who does not really run the offense nor turn a great deal of the defensive attention on him into assists.

And you're right Crow about being careful comparing teams from different time periods. Prior to the Pistons winning the finals, there were different defensive rules in place. Simply put, it was much easier to defend wing players. I would go out on a limb and say the development of the stretch 4 has had a lot to do with the way the NBA allows defenses to operate nowadays. Part of the reason pace, overall, has declined in the past 10+ years has to do with defense as well. As defense becomes harder to play, offensive efficiency gains importance. For example, the dynasty Bulls ran all the time. Why? Because if the defense had time to set up, the game was in their favor. Now, running is associated with losing. Why again? Because with offenses having the edge over defenses (even set up), efficiency is more important than volume. Defense still wins championships, because offense is inherently inconsistent, but in the present NBA, you can't simply defense your way into contention.

Just look at the Pistons after their win. Yes, they got back to the finals, albeit in an East with zero other contenders, but they could never repeat. They couldn't even get back to the finals when facing teams with great offensive players (Wade 06, Lebron 07, Pierce 08). That's no coincidence. Despite still having one of, if not, THE best defenses in the entire league, they were repeatedly torched by great individual players. That's how the league is, and that's what this team has to realize before they take the next step.

Quick note:8 of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency have over .500 records.6 of the top 10 teams in defensive efficiency have over .500 records.1 +.500 team is below the median of offensive efficiency (Houston sits at 16th)3 +.500 teams are below the median in defensive efficiency (Miami 17th, Utah 18th, Phoenix 25th)

Jax Raging Bile Duct :I would prefer to see a shift in the grievances from this site shift away from the player and toward the staff. The players are doing what they’re directed to do.I’ve said before our offense is simple and elementary. I am ready for this to change.

Ok, so the guys who picked / played Krstic as the starting center, Jeff Green as the PF, Thabo as the SG and Westbrook as the PG are on the spot? At least as far as offensive performance? Or just give them another season or two to get this part worked out?

Players + management share the blame for them, according to hoopdata taking the 10th worst set of shots based on the "expected' or league average FG% from those locations and then shooting them a bit worse than the rest of the league.

But maybe that is enough for now.

Except to note that it appears the Thunder give up the easiest set of shots by expected FG% but their opponents have hit the 10th worst. Either the shot location measure is not a very good one or maybe opponents have been unusually off by good defense (especially inside) or being cold or some of all the above.

In last 20 seasons 12 teams were between 103-105 on both Offensive and Defensive efficiency and the best win record was 45 and the worst for a full season was 36. The average was about 40. The most recent team was the 06-07 Magic. The first partial Ray Allen season in 2002-3 the Sonics were the same way.40 wins. Only good for 10th place in the west that season though.

The Pistons defense that season was the third best of the last 20 years and way ahead of the Thunder good defense in today's somewhat different rules. The Thunder's offense is actually better on right stats but comparing between years requires some caution or disclaimer.

Keith :Does anyone think our offense if reminiscent of the Finals level Detroit teams up until they got old? You look at those teams, and you see just a ridiculous amount of jump shots, and many/most of them being mid-range things. They had very little scoring in the post, and weren’t that great from the three point line either. Their starting PF played more like SG than a PF, their PG (and Finals MVP) averaged 5.8 assists per game, their star player was a mid-range shooter who needed 2+ screens to get open, their SF was a defensive specialist, and their C couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn if it had a rim.They took all the same shots, yet the Pistons had one of the most efficient offenses throughout their playoff runs. Why can’t we be that way? The answer seems to be two fold. First, our ball movement is like a retarded monkey compared to those Detroit teams. Chauncey didn’t have a ton of assists because he’d pass the ball and expect to see 1-3 more passes before a shot was even attempted. Why is that important? Because you have to maximize the effectiveness of low percentage (mid-range) shots. The top 6 players on the Pistons hit over 45% of their 2-point shots… because they were always OPEN. Our offense doesn’t move, and no one gets open, and thus everyone shoots like crap. Second, we are sloppy. Detroit was consistently had one of, if not, the best turnover stats in the league. They made smart decisions, and made sure not to beat themselves. We like to beat ourselves all the time.

...

If you ask me what this team needs, I have three things. 1) Russell to improve his PG play, 2) an offensive system that emphasizes ball-movement and better shots, and 3) a center who can score in the post and stop defenses from loading up the perimeter.

Lots to agree with there.

One exception would be the Pistons overall efficiency. They were 18th in the regular season they eventually won the title. I haven't looked in great detail but I don't think their overall playoff offensive efficiency was that much better but maybe it was high enough in the right moments. Timing is a lot of the difference between good and great.

Also, I think we should all put this whole discussion in a little bit of perspective. We are lucky that we can nitpick Jeff and Russell. Last year at this time the best I could do was say, "Maybe today they'll lose by less than 20." The second half of last season was better, but being better still placed us as a bad team.

This discussion matters because we are in position where every possession and every player really matters. That wasn't the case last year. And for that, I'm very very happy, no matter how frustrated or apathetic I might appear towards a Thunder player. We wouldn't be in the playoff chase without Jeff or Russell. So while I want them to be better, I'm happy they are helping the team exceed my expectations.

Inside/outside game can be a bonus, but only if it's properly utilized. Look at Rasheed Wallace and Rashard Lewis. Rasheed and Rashard are inside/outside players, who can do everything. But, if you look, both only worked in specific situations. Detroit fans hated 'Sheed for his later years because, despite being a very good defender, he killed the offense with his penchant for taking threes/jumpers instead of beating smaller guys in the post. Rashard was a tweener, Sonics fans felt similar to Detroit fans with 'Sheed, but when he went to Orlando and played next to Howard, his skillset became a huge plus. Green suffers from being a tweener forward in an offensive system that can't really support his skills.

Our system is pretty dumbed down, to put it lightly, likely in part because Westbrook is learning on the job. Further, we have absolutely no inside presence, so there is no one getting easy shots (consistently) or drawing defenders away from the perimeter. Unfortunately, we are a very perimeter oriented team, and thus we are very easy to defend. Simple offense + no spacing = bad efficiency. I think, much moreso than Green, Krstic needs to be replaced. Green is obviously has the skill to score from a lot of places, and the athleticism at least to become an above average defender at PF. Krstic can score in 2 places, and both of them only work if someone else sets up the shot for him. We need someone, anyone, who can draw defensive attention on his own around the basket.

Interesting numbers, Crow. I think it's revealing that Jeff is below guys like Thaddeus Young. Is T. Thomas Tyrus or Tim? Jeff was 37/43 last year. I don't think he could get to 50/50, that's hard to do.