The ceasefire between the Israelis and Palestinians, should it hold up, is the first step. It should be followed by at least three more steps: The release of captives and prisoners, the establishment of a new Palestinian government that does not espouse Israel's elimination, but rather, coexistence, and the start of negotiations for a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.

Will the second, third, and fourth step follow soon? This depends on the first step – the truce.

There's a chance the Palestinians learned the hard way that bombarding Israeli communities does not advance Palestinian independence, just as the Israelis learned that wide-scale military operations do not silence the Palestinians.

Currently we see signs that the Hamas government reached a dead-end because it brought to Palestinians only an international and Israeli siege, ongoing suffering, and needless victims. There are also signs that the Israeli government realized there are no unilateral solutions and that there is no choice but to attempt to reach an agreement.

Significant forces, those of zealots on both sides, are continuing to fan the flames, and to condemn any compromise as defeatism and every negotiation session as a sign of weakness.

Palestinian zealots aspire to continue the "armed struggle" until the State of Israel is eliminated. Israeli zealots demand that the government of Israel reoccupy the Gaza Strip and banish forever the notion of evacuating the occupied territories.

Atmosphere of despair

The Palestinian-Israeli cycle of blood and the feeling there is no way out of this cycle lead to gloom among moderates on both sides. Olmert's and Mahmoud Abbas' weakness boosts this hopelessness.

An atmosphere of despair is overcoming many in the peace camp who feel that radicalism managed to drown the chances for peace in blood. Yet this weakness, this sense of helplessness, only boosts the extremism of radicals on both sides.

After all, only several years ago peace supporters filled public squares, toppled the Shamir government, toppled the Netanyahu government, and opened a window for a move of mutual recognition by both peoples.

In the last elections, only a few months ago, peace supporters voted in a center-left government that held the banner of unilateral Israeli withdrawal from most occupied territories.

And yet following a Hizbullah attack on Israel, this center-left government launched a military operation in Lebanon, but turned what should have been a short, limited and justified campaign into a long and miserable war. After it, this government lost the desire to advance towards peace with the Palestinians - it in fact lsot any desire aside from the desire to survive in power.

The Palestinians, on their part, were led by Hamas' minority government to radical, belligerent views that are unwilling to recognize Israel's right to exist. Similar positions brought about the great Palestinian disaster in 1948.

Yet perhaps these days we see a change emerging on both sides. The sense of dead-end and the fear of the vicious cycle are apparently shared by both. If the ceasefire indeed takes root and if it's followed by the release of captives and prisoners and the establishment of a pragmatic Palestinian government – we may be at the outset of a new move: We do not need another international conference, but rather, direct negotiations between the sides.

Two capitals in Jerusalem

Negotiations over what? Not for another "realignment" and not for another "Hudna" or "Tahadiya", but rather, talks on a comprehensive, all-inclusive bilateral agreement to resolve all components of the Israel-Palestine war.

What will this agreement include? Here of all places we find hope: It's found in the fact that both Israelis and Palestinians know deep in their heart what will be found in this agreement, and what will not be there. Even the objectors on both sides already know deep in their heart what this deal will include and what it will not.

Even those, on both sides, who view the agreement as treachery and disaster, even they know deep in their heart that in this agreement there will be two states, Israel and Palestine, based on the 1967 borders, with mutual adjustments. There will also be two capitals in Jerusalem. And there will be no "right of return," just like most of the settlements will be gone.

Both peoples already know this. Is this knowledge bringing joy to their hearts? Certainly not. Will Israelis and Palestinians dance in the streets on the day this inevitable agreement is implemented? Certainly not. We're talking about a compromise of pain and clenched teeth. Yet the good news is that both peoples already know that this compromise will indeed be waiting at the end of the road.

How much time, suffering, and innocent blood will the leaders of Israel and Palestine need before they reach the place that both peoples, with a heavy heart, already reached? The ceasefire, if it holds up, may perhaps be the first flickering light at the end of the darkness.