INSIGHT: Egypt – a Tinderbox Waiting for a Spark

Nearly six months after the mass uprising-cum-coup that toppled Mohamed Morsi, the key cleavages of Egypt’s domestic political conflict are not only unresolved, but unresolvable. The generals who removed Morsi are engaged in an existential struggle with the Muslim Brotherhood: They believe they must destroy the Brotherhood – by, for instance, designating it a terrorist organization – or else the Brotherhood will return to power and destroy them.

Meanwhile, Sinai-based jihadists have used Morsi’s removal as a pretext for intensifying their violence, and have increasingly hit targets west of the Suez Canal. Even the Brotherhood’s fiercest opponents are fighting among themselves: the coalition of entrenched state institutions and leftist political parties that rebelled against Morsi is fraying, and the youth activists who backed Morsi’s ouster in July are now protesting against the military-backed government, which has responded by arresting their leaders.

So despite the fact that Egypt’s post-Morsi transition is technically moving forward, with a new draft constitution expected to pass via referendum in mid-January and elections to follow shortly thereafter, the country is a tinderbox that could ignite with any spark, entirely derailing the political process and converting Egypt’s episodic tumult into severe instability. What might that spark be? Here are three possibilities:

1. A high-profile political assassination. While he may be as well-guarded as any top official, Egyptian Defense Minister (and de facto ruler) Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is squarely in the Muslim Brotherhood’s crosshairs. He is, after all, the face of the coup that toppled Morsi, and he later called Egyptians to the streets to seek their “authorization” for a subsequent crackdown that killed more than 1,000 Morsi supporters.

The Brotherhood hasn’t been shy in calling for his death. Brotherhood protests frequently feature images of Sisi with a noose around his neck for “treason,” and the Brotherhood-backed Anti-Coup Alliance recently tweeted, “the people want the murderer executed,” in an apparent reference to Sisi.

Moreover, in December, a pro-Brotherhood website even reported excitedly (double exclamation points and all) that an assassination attempt against Sisi had already taken place, adding that Sisi was hastily flown to Saudi Arabia for treatment, where he refused to have his leg amputated so that he wouldn’t have to retire from the military. (This was, of course, false.) And while the Brotherhood has been implicated in political assassinations previously, such as the 1948 murder of Prime Minister Mahmoud al-Nuqrashi, it is hardly the only or best-equipped organization that wants Sisi dead: The Egyptian general is currently overseeing a military campaign against Sinai-based jihadists, who attempted to assassinate Egypt’s interior minister in Cairo in early September and have repeatedly attacked security installations, most recently in the Nile Delta city of Mansoura and governorate of Sharkiya.

“…Egypt’s unsettled political situation and swell of violence make the atmosphere ripe for further upheaval.” – Eric Trager, The Washington Institute

If Sisi were assassinated, it would have two effects. First, the military would likely respond with an even more severe crackdown on the Brotherhood than the one that is already underway. This is precisely what happened following a 1954 assassination attempt on Gamal Abdel Nasser that was blamed on the Brotherhood: thousands of Muslim Brothers were detained, tortured, and executed over the next two decades. Second, given the current expectation that Sisi will either run for president or act as the kingmaker, his assassination would catalyze intense competition among various security officials who would vie – directly or via proxies – for the presidency. This would further weaken Egypt’s already disjointed state, raising the prospect of even greater violence.

A supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and ousted Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi steps on a poster of Egypt's current de facto leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi during a protest in Cairo Aug. 23, 2013. (Reuters)

2. Protests and/or violence at polling stations. Egyptians are widely expected to approve the referendum of the new constitution in January – no referendum in Egyptian history has ever resulted in a “no.” But the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies reject the post-Morsi political process and are reportedly planning to thwart the plebiscite by protesting at polling stations and preventing voters from entering the booths. While one must take reports about the Brotherhood in the Egyptian press with a heavy chunk of salt, the organization’s statements in recent weeks comparing voting in the referendum to “participation in bloodshed” suggest that aggressive action is possible. And the fact that Egyptian security forces are planning for this possibility is hardly reassuring: Egypt’s notoriously brutal police would likely engage the obstructionists violently, and those areas in which Islamists are particularly strong might be able to hold off government forces for a while, as occurred in the Giza town of Kerdasa in September.

This sort of incident wouldn’t just delay the vote – it would reveal the transitional government’s weakness. This would encourage the Brotherhood to escalate its protest activities, and might also encourage the Sinai jihadists to escalate their attacks. Rather than moving quickly toward the next rounds of elections, Egypt would be headed toward persistent civil strife.

3. A major terrorist incident in the Suez Canal. In August, Sinai-based jihadists fired rockets at a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship passing through the Suez Canal. While the Egyptian military responded with a major ground offensive against the jihadists shortly thereafter and beefed up security along the canal, Egypt’s generals admit that the campaign in Sinai has proven much more difficult than they expected. Moreover, subsequent terrorist attacks against both military and civilian targets suggest that the jihadists are extremely determined and, at times, very well-armed: terrorists filmed themselves firing an RPG in Cairo in October, and an explosion outside a camp for security forces in Ismailia in December wounded 30 people.

A poster of deposed Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi lies on the ground as military police stand on Cairo's burnt Rabaa Adawiya Square, the morning after the clearing of a pro-Morsi protest camp Aug. 15, 2013. (Reuters)

A major attack on the Suez Canal would be particularly devastating. In addition to embarrassing the military-backed government internationally, it would harm the one source of domestically generated state revenue that has remained relatively stable despite the political tumult of the past three years. The current government can’t afford to lose it: Despite a $12 billion pledge from Persian Gulf states in the immediate aftermath of Morsi’s ouster, Egypt’s cash reserves have declined in recent months – dropping from $18.6 billion in October to $17.8 billion in November. Meanwhile, the government has announced plans to increase the minimum wage for government employees and preserve the costly food-subsidy program. A sharp dip in Suez Canal revenue would affect the government’s ability to meet its obligations, and ongoing cash-reserve declines could spell the return of the constant blackouts and long gas lines that plagued Morsi during his final months in office. Mass anger, and the beginnings of a possible uprising, would likely follow.

There’s a slim chance, of course, that any of these particular scenarios will occur. But Egypt’s unsettled political situation and swell of violence make the atmosphere ripe for further upheaval. Something will likely give.

14 Comments

Babu

May 6, 2014

Why is everyone unfair to Morsi? Why do people talk about a fair election and then turn against the person who was voted in squarely fare? MB won an election that they didn’t serve the term simply some dictators didn’t like them. Did he kill anyone? Did he order the killings of innocent peacefully demonstrating Egyptians on the streets? If a president is peaceful, comes via the ballot and goes by the constitution, Why stress about the party he hails from? Guys, I know there is the phobia against MB but they seem more developed and nice to the ordinary Egyptian then any of this crooks from the army stairs!

An outspoken member of Harvard Students for Israel went undercover in what he says was a quest to gauge anti-Semitism in a campus anti-war group.
Members of the Harvard Initiative for Peace and Justice (HIPJ) discovered last week that mysterious anti-Semitic posts on the group’s web log were written by Eric R. Trager ’05, who posted them under an assumed name.

Trager said yesterday that he was responsible for the posts in question, but said they were part of his larger effort to monitor anti-Semitism on campus.

Trager, who is secretary of Harvard Students for Israel (HSI), had previously accused HIPJ of being too tolerant of anti-Semitic sentiments expressed over its e-mail lists.

Where are the 65 billion that Mubarak had stashed in Swiss accounts, and the millions he had in jewels. Why the government don’t use them for some benefit or to alleviate the poverty. I’ve seen very sad pictures of poor children wandering in Cairo, while types in the government live in the oppulence It is again like the rich man and Lazarus, children are not deign of the leftovers and are left to die of starvation. Egypt, despite its sophistication, comes across as a country with huge differences. the military men are not compassionate, they only think in power and MB in fundamentalism. there must sure to be another option

65 billions slashed in Swiss bank . This is Muslim brotherhood propaganda. Hosni Mubarak might abuse the power but he is not stupid as MorsI. morsi destroy the country with his mentally ill imam who stir many conflict that make the country unstable. most of the Egyptian want Mubarak back

I think that Mubarak wanted, like all who taste the power once, perpetuate himself in it. But it is the same all around in Africa, and in all the world, presidents don’t want to leave. Why?” It is so good here”. You can call me impertinent. Maybe it is not so simple. But I also think the country was in better shape when he was the president, he come across as benevolent. But a politician must be very shrewd so as not to give away the game as was the case with Morsi. He modified the constitution in order to do the same, but it looked bad in the eyes of the world,like very shameless, or very naive,. He was not astute as Mubarak. But as I said in my commentary, Egypt was better with Mubarak, at least there was peace, and Egyptians need a strongman a the helm, Good luck to them.

Egyptian will agree with you when they experienced muslim brotherhood. in fact they are worst than Mubarak one million times.

Alfredo Ibarra Barajas

April 30, 2014

No country in the world has a perfect government, perhaps with the exception of Sweden and Finland, nobody is completely happy, but we have to learn to live with what we have, because perhaps it is what we deserve. We should do as the Indians, who after being one of the most backwater countries, now they have achieved extraordinary things, or South Korea, and others. Only hard work can lead us out of the darkness, but we should never start a revolution, because these tend to end up badly, and in the end, everything returns to the way it was. Instead, study hard how others achieved success. Havoc only brings penury and misery, don’t attend to the call of sirens, however beautiful they picture it, they will only lure to destruction. I know I am very simplistic in my westernized points of view. Good luck to all Egyptians.

What is the price of salivation? A question about how to save Egypt from fanatic. the destroying Muslim brotherhood is essential to create safe environment to Egypt. Muslim brotherhood is dead for ever .Muslim brotherhood are punch of psychopath .they are liar . they are violent . they morally corrupt. they are dirty. look what happened in Syria .look who invented sexual jihad/look who invented Bacha Bazi. . who is child abuser? Islam

What is the price of salivation? A question about how to save Egypt from fanatic. the destroying Muslim brotherhood is essential to create safe environment to Egypt. Muslim brotherhood is dead for ever .Muslim brotherhood are punch of psychopath .they are liar . they are violent . they morally corrupt. they are dirty. look what happened in Syria .look who invented sexual jihad/look who invented Bacha Bazi. . who is child abuser? Islam

At least with Mubarak there was peace and not bloodshed, a lot of poverty, yes, but as India has proven, the war against inequality can only be won with an extraordinary effort on behalf of the youth in the university campuses, and not in the streets, Where are the leading lights who can signal the path to progress, and not to follow the retrograds like the MB, who only want the country submersed in a continuous revolution. I think that you must stop this because you are not going anywhere, go back to work or to school and strive for a better country.

"They believe they must destroy the Brotherhood – by, for instance, designating it a terrorist organization – or else the Brotherhood will return to power and destroy them."

Just so. This is not like South Africa where a Mandela can arise and call for reconciliation, the Muslim Brotherhood is motivated by religion, a very non-compromising and violence prone religion. The military's only recourse is to get rid of the MB or lose their heads.

The problem at this point is that it is either Sisi or nothing. The political Left in Egypt suffers from the same maladies and inertia that have plagued the Left in every revolutionary crisis. They are split along pointless sectarian lines, unorganized and only bound together by a very loose coalition – not a unified political party. This is why the revolution, which they started around Tahrir square, was very quickly usurped by the Muslim Brotherhood. The MB pushed the students off and dominated the speaker platforms, used their mosques as gathering places and were directed by experienced political leaders. If the military is to maintain power it had better build some allies in the sectarian camp and then begin a large scale round -up and extermination of MB members. They will have to spill a lot of blood, but if they don’t the MB will do it for them.

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