000
FXUS64 KBMX 021957
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.
GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
88
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ABNORMALLY DRY SUMMER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
PREDOMINANTLY WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING BR TOMORROW AT TOI...WHERE MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS ALSO
ANOMALOUSLY OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMPASS WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT WINDS CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
02
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$