Memeorandum

November 04, 2008

Maximum History

I often kid my kids that they have been living through too much history with the Clinton impeachment (remember the House vote while Baghdad was being bombed?), the Florida recount and 9/11?

But where would a McCain victory rank relative to that trifecta?

For maximum history, if McCain wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote by a few million, the Gates of Chaos will open wide. I do not look forward to this outcome, but it certainly would be interesting.

If McCain wins both the popular vote and the Electoral College, I will personally be honored, since that makes me the Queen of May.

An epic Obama landslide followed by a Dem attempt to recreate the New Deal will keep historians and pundits chattering.

"Gates of Chaos?" TM, I'm going to say the same thing to you that I said to a friend this morning who, as we were walking to our cars after having voted, said he hoped there wouldn't be a repeat of 2000 because it would be bad for the country. I said that we had overcome the mighty Brits with a ragtag Revolutionary force that barely had enough food at times, a horrible debt situation after the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the German and Japanese military machines, 9/11, and on and on and on. I told him we have a strong, vibrant democracy and that a close election with months of bickering (and perhaps Congress needing to choose between two sets of electors in one or more states) will turn out just fine for the country. I mentioned that perhaps he and I and many others live such soft lives that we have to imagine events in the normal course of give and take as "crises" and "chaos." Although I often tweak my left-leaning friends for their therapy state utterances, I think all across the political spectrum we classify the regular hustle and bustle of life as "chaos" and "crises." Crisis? Chaos? How about Rick Rescorla on 9/11 for an individual facing true crisis and chaos?

Bill Ayers just cast the deciding vote - 4 times so far. If we turn left (and I mean far left not a Bill Clinton "gays in the military" type left turn) there will be severe political disruption. This is not Venezuela or Cuba - even the Dems have those blue dogs that will spit fire and be disruptive. I still think McCain has a chance since Kerry was up 5% prior to election day and the exit polls called it for him. The turnout is what matters and it could be for both McCain (concerned citizens) or Obama (newly registered, youth, pallor). Who knows?

I felt like I was in a receiving line at funeral while I was waiting to vote today. Not a lot of joy among that group. I overheard an Obama supporter saying that he really wasn't going to do what he said he would do ("fundamentally transform the U.S."). They are in complete denial about who he is.

@kimIt wouldn't take a miracle for McCain to win, only that the polls be mistaken, and what's the chance that they aren't?

This year we discovered several large underlying problems in the financial system. It's not out of the question that things are in total disarray for the press and the media. Methinks all that is lacking is a single crystallizing event.

I overheard an Obama supporter saying that he really wasn't going to do what he said he would do ("fundamentally transform the U.S."). They are in complete denial about who he is.

Well, that's just it. Folks are so used to Pols lying they think they lie about everything. Reagan had a quote about "When a politician promises to raise your taxes you'd better beleive it." I think that also goes for when a politician promises to massively expand govt. Unfortunately, there must be an awful lot of folks who can't be bothered to become educated or informed.

Doesn't anyone care anymore about the wide use here of Sequoia and Smartmatic voting systems, formerly based in Venezuela? The fact that the company was recently sold to its own American management does not make me feel much better.

Memphis: My 76 year old mom and some of her friends ( both Whites and Blacks in the group--so take that media elite!) were waving signs at a busy intersection for McCain Palin. A lovely Obama supporter threw a half filled can of coke at a young boy from a moving car, and hit him. Not seriously hurt, but it could have killed him if it had hit his head.

Nashville burb: Very light voting at my very repub precinct as I drove by--but we've had early voting for over two weeks, and most people take advantage. Not unusual--there should be a rush after work.

LSU campus: My daughter reports that the campus is awash with McCain Palin stickers. Hardly a long haired, flea bitten unwashed Obama supporter visable among the student body. And hey--even some of her profs are repubs! Gotta tell you folks--consider LSU for your kids. Great football, and a good education as an added bonus! (yes, that's a joke)

Well, that's it. The general consensus at Walmart this morning was Thank God it's almost over. I don't think I could stand another day.

"President Ahmadinejad of Iran suffered a humiliating and politically damaging setback today when his interior minister, Ali Kordan, was impeached for dishonesty after he confessed to holding a bogus law degree from Oxford University."

Too bad that guy didn't call Bill Ayers first to help him out. Maybe so goes Obama later?? (LUN)

Gorgeous day in Nebraska, fall color at its height. My twenty-one year-old son and I went together to the Presbyterian church down the street to cast our ballots. Bittersweet. I am very worried about what this election means for our nation.

To think that my father fought his way through the Pacific, to be one of the first Marines to land at Nagasaki, and that my grandfather volunteered to be an Army chaplain and prayed with men who fought and died from North Africa through Italy... I grieve for their sacrifice, I grieve for my country, and I grieve for my children and grandchildren.

Yeah, lucky me I've got to go to Chicago tonight. (I have to be at a conference tomorrow morning.) Fortunately I'm sticking to west of the loop (in one train station out the other) and my dad is coming down to meet me. Win or lose it's bound to get ugly -- things were pretty bad after the bulls won their championships, too.

there is a otn of money to be made on intrade
Wow. That's a olt of money. Unfortunately, intrade has the same rules on credit card funding as the O-Mob-a campaign: you have to demonstrate you're not supplying money from inside the United States.

(It's actually not intrade's rule, it's from the Port Security and Oh By the Way Let's Ban Internet Gambling Act of 2006, an attempt by Congress to save the little people from frittering away their money somewhere it couldn't be taxed so we could invest it in safer vehicles like bank stocks and home ownership.)

That won't deter the Pennsylvania Dutch. Trust me, they have been there since the early 1700s and they always vote.

That's where all of my forbears come from. That dog won't hunt there.

BTW, and FWIW, Major Garrett reported that Obama went to Indiana today because their internals show him behind by 5. In addition, they have a nationwide phone bank volunteer system set up and they are robocalling Missouri because they are behind there too.

All I can say is if Zero and Johnny Mac are still out rallying while knowing it's over, they must really love campaigning. The more logical explanation is that they are being told by their pollsters that any one battleground state could still make the difference.

Ya know, one of the slough of things that bugged me about Slick is that it seemed like a primary reason he wanted to be President was that it made him a celebrity and he could hang out with that ilk (not to mention power being a skank magnet). On the other hand you have insecure Barry that doesn't want to share the spotlight with anybody of star power, no matter how personally loathsome I might find them. What type of person tells individuals that aren't security concerns that he doesn't want them to attend an event that's open to the public?

Gee, if Major Garrwett has the nerve to report something unhelpful to The One he must have had wheaties this morning.

I've had that sense about him lately, too.

On the other hand, I recall reading something by him on foxnews.com a few months back where he covered something - pretty objectively, I thought - that wasn't flattering to the O campaign. I think it was the flap over the campaign tossing reporters off the plane, for what looked like partisan reasons (kinda like the similar recent thing). This was a posting that allowed comments and the O-bots absolutely *savaged* him. It was completely unwarranted. Point being: He can depart the O party line.

On the other hand you have insecure Barry that doesn't want to share the spotlight with anybody of star power...

One thing I appreciate about McCain (policy positions aside) is that as far as I can tell it does not bother him one iota that Sarah is the big star at the rallies. He knows the big crowds that come out are coming to see her, not him, and he just smiles winsomely when this is pointed out, and even joins in by emphasizing just how great she is. That's a man confident in himself.

Went to vote at lunchtime. Two lines for two precincts. Both lines running a hundred yards out the door. Army town in mostly red rural county in southeast Arizona. Veteran poll worker I spoke to said lines had been well out the door since opening at 6am. Said it was by far the largest turnout she's seen since she started working this polling place in 1992.

538 has a post up saying if things go as expected in states that are close at 7 pm -- Obama is guaranteed a victory. That's 4 pm PST. Basically, if the polls aren't wrong in the early states, and McCain doesn't do better than expected in the early states, then hes basically finished using the polling data we have.