Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) announced Tuesday night that he would retire rather than run for re-election this year, a surprise move that imperils the Democrats' 60-seat majority next year. | John Shinkle/POLITICO

Dorgan announcement stuns Dems

Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) announced Tuesday night that he would retire rather than run for reelection this year, a surprise move that imperils the Democrats' 60-seat majority next year.

Dorgan wasn't facing serious opposition in what would have been a campaign for his fourth term, but North Dakota’s popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven is considering a bid and was leading in early polls.

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In disclosing his decision to his staff via memo Tuesday, Dorgan insisted that he was not retiring to forestall defeat in November.

“This decision is not a reflection of any dissatisfaction with my work in the Senate, nor is it connected to a potential election contest next fall (frankly, I believe if I were to run for another term I would be reelected),” Dorgan wrote to his staff.

“But the truth is in recent months, even as I have prepared for a reelection campaign, I have wrestled with the question of whether I really wanted to make a commitment to serve another seven years in the Senate (next year plus a new six-year term) following the 30 years I have already served in Congress plus the 10 years I served in elected office in the State Capitol prior to that.”

Dorgan said he made his decision over the holidays, but he appeared to catch much of his party and even his own staff off-guard. With an apology for how he was sharing the news, he informed his aides of his decision through an e-mail from his chief of staff just minutes before his office put out a statement with the announcement.

Similarly, the Senate leadership and campaign committee had little warning of Dorgan’s retirement — the first by a Senate Democrat this cycle. Dorgan had already made up his mind by the time he informed Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, according to sources close to the leader. And while the White House was aware of Dorgan’s decision, the president wasn’t able to talk to his former colleague before the news broke, according to a senior Democrat.

Dorgan hadn’t given any sign before the holiday recess that he was considering retirement, and he’d even been raising money for his reelection campaign.

"It caught us totally by surprise," said an aide to one top Senate Democrat. "We had no idea this was coming. Total stunner."

Dorgan’s wife, Kimberly, a senior executive at the American Council of Life Insurers, wasn’t enthusiastic about her husband's running for another term, according to a source close to the senator.

With Dorgan out of the race, North Dakota becomes a prime pickup opportunity for Senate Republicans. The Cook Political Report has already changed its rating of the race to “Lean Republican” and is calling it one of the Republicans’ “best opportunities to pick up a Democratic-held seat in 2010.”

Dorgan, who previously served as his state’s tax commissioner and as its sole representative in the House, was still a popular figure at home. But North Dakota has been reliably Republican at the presidential level, giving John McCain 53 percent of the vote in 2008, and Hoeven could be difficult to beat should he get in.

The governor is making preparations to entering the race before the incumbent’s retirement announcement, according to several GOP operatives, and Dorgan’s decision is expected to make his decision to run more likely.

The governor told The Associated Press on Tuesday night that he was "looking at [a Senate race] very seriously."

"I expect we'll announce our intentions here within a couple of weeks," Hoeven told the wire service in Bismarck.

Gary Emineth, chairman of the North Dakota GOP, told POLITICO that he believes Hoeven will run. “I expect Gov. Hoeven to get in, and he’s going to work through personal issues relating to his family, but I would be shocked if he’s not in the Senate race soon,” Emineth said. “He’s been showing signs of running and getting things cued up in preparation for a decision. It’s inevitable, and the decision by Dorgan showed he was expecting Governor Hoeven to get into the race.”

Don Larson, an adviser to Hoeven, said that the governor would make his intentions known within "the next two weeks."

Hoeven, who is serving his ninth year in Bismarck and is the longest-serving state chief executive in the country, has benefited from the state’s relative economic prosperity in the midst of the recession. North Dakota has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country.

A December Rasmussen poll underlined the governor's strong standing, showing him leading Dorgan by 22 percentage points, 58 percent to 36 percent. The same poll, however, showed Dorgan still viewed favorably by a majority of his constituents.

“My assessment was that if Byron had run it would be been a very competitive and close race, which Byron would have won in the end,” said Dorgan pollster Geoff Garin. “North Dakotans know that they have a very effective and independent senator in Byron, and he is someone who never lost his sense of connection with the average person in North Dakota.”

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.), the state’s lone House member, resisted overtures from Senate Democratic leaders to get him to run for Dorgan’s seat, leaving the party with a thin bench of prospective candidates.

Heidi Heitkamp, a former North Dakota attorney general and tax commissioner who was defeated by Hoeven in the 2000 gubernatorial race, is another potential candidate. And MSNBC anchor Ed Schultz said he’s been contacted by North Dakota Democrats urging him to run, though national party leaders aren’t enthusiastic about a potential campaign.