Analysis: Who will make the Saints roster?

John McCusker/The Times-PicayuneIs Jason David in danger of not making the Saints roster?

I've got 48 names written in pen on my Saints roster.

Sure, the Saints still could throw out a curveball or two before they cut down to their 53-man roster next week. But from what we've seen in training camp and the preseason, I think 48 guys are virtual locks.

That leaves just five spots up for grabs, which means cornerbacks such as Jason David, Jason Craft and Aaron Glenn aren't just battling each other, they're battling guards Andy Alleman and Tim Duckworth, safety Lance Schulters, tight end Ronnie Ghent and kicker Taylor Mehlhaff, among others.

That means the Saints need to decide if they can afford to keep injured defensive tackle Hollis Thomas on the roster for the next two months, even if it leaves them thin in other areas such as defensive end.

And that means a lot of guys still have a lot to play for in Thursday night's preseason finale against Miami.

The Saints need to make five cuts before Tuesday, then another 22 next week. Here's the current roster breakdown, and how I see things shaping up. Those top 48 are listed as probable:

Cornerback

Probable: Mike McKenzie, Randall Gay, Tracy Porter, Usama Young.

Questionable: Jason David, Jason Craft, Aaron Glenn.

Doubtful: Greg Fassitt.

Prediction: This is by far the hardest position to project, especially since Young is out with a hamstring injury. If Young was healthy, I'd be confident going with just five cornerbacks, but six is a strong possibility.

Either way, my guess is that the Saints will cut their losses with David. They gave him every opportunity to bounce back from last year's struggles, but when it comes down to it, I think they'll have more trust in one or both of their veterans, Craft and Glenn.

I'll predict just five cornerbacks make the cut, and I'll lean toward Craft since he's got the longer track record with this coaching staff.

Safety

Probable: Roman Harper, Kevin Kaesviharn, Josh Bullocks, Chris Reis.

Questionable: Lance Schulters.

Doubtful: David Roach, Curome Cox.

Prediction: Obviously the Saints feel like there might be a spot for Schulters, because they signed him last week as "more than just a camp body," according to Coach Sean Payton. Maybe that's a sign that Bullocks is in jeopardy. But I'm going to stick with the same four safeties from last year and leave Schulters off the roster.

Prediction: The top six all are safe, and that should be plenty for the Saints. Dunbar has shown some potential, but he's probably headed for the practice squad.

Defensive end

Probable: Will Smith, Charles Grant, Bobby McCray.

Questionable: Josh Savage.

Doubtful: Marcus Pittman, Jeremy Geathers.

Prediction: I'm leaving Savage off the team, but barely. The Saints have been happy with his performance, and they would prefer to have four ends on the roster. But he suffered an elbow injury Saturday night that could hurt his chances. This is a spot where the Saints might look to add someone who gets cut from another team next week.

Defensive tackle

Probable: Sedrick Ellis, Brian Young, Antwan Lake, Kendrick Clancy.

Questionable: Orien Harris, Hollis Thomas.

Prediction: I think the Saints will keep Harris and make the tough decision to put Thomas on injured reserve, though I'm only about 51 percent sure on that one. Payton has given no indication that he's leaning that way, but the Saints are deep enough at this position that they probably can afford to lose Thomas. Harris has been impressive in camp so far, and he could play end in a pinch.

Quarterback

Probable: Drew Brees, Mark Brunell.

Questionable: Tyler Palko.

Prediction: It looks like Palko is headed back to the practice squad after some inconsistent performances over the past month.

Prediction: The Saints will keep all four tailbacks. They need the depth, and Stecker and Thomas bring added value on special teams. Allen gets a practice-squad exemption through the league's international development program.

Fullback

Probable: Mike Karney.

Questionable: Kevin Dudley.

Doubtful: Olaniyi Sobomehin.

Prediction: Once again, the Saints will go with just one fullback. Dudley, who has seen significant action on special teams, has a shot. But Saturday night's ankle sprain won't help.

Prediction: Those top six are safe, and that's it. Green had to outshine Moore to earn a roster spot, and he hasn't done that. Arrington had a real shot before he suffered a significant turf toe injury. Now the choice with him is either the practice squad or injured reserve.

I thought Henderson might be on the bubble until Payton offered a firm vote of confidence last week. Moore and Copper will make the team because of special teams, though Moore has been impressive on offense, too.

Tight end

Probable: Jeremy Shockey, Mark Campbell, Billy Miller.

Questionable: Ronnie Ghent.

Doubtful: Buck Ortega.

Prediction: I believe Ghent will make the roster because he's been so heavily involved on special teams throughout the preseason. He also caught a touchdown pass from Brees on Saturday night. With just one fullback, the Saints can keep four tight ends.

Prediction: The Saints don't have room for all three of their young backup guards (Nicks, Duckworth and Alleman). In a bit of an upset, I'll go with Duckworth over Alleman, who was last year's third-round draft pick. But that could go either way.

Specialists

Probable: Kevin Houser, Steve Weatherford.

Questionable: Martin Gramatica, Taylor Mehlhaff.

Doubtful: Waylon Prather.

Prediction: I say they keep both kickers, at least early in the season. This position has been such a thorn in the Saints' side that they want to make sure they get it right, even if it means burning a roster spot. .¤.¤. If they go with just one guy, though, I give the edge to Gramatica.

Mike Triplett can be reached at mtriplett@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3405.