Thursday, July 9, 2015

June 2015 federal polling averages

If the New Democrats prevail in October's election, June will have been the month where it became possible. For the first time since 2012, and thanks to some massive spikes in support in a few battleground regions of the country, the New Democrats led in the monthly averages last month.

It was a busy month of polling, perhaps as the pollsters get in their final numbers before breaking for the summer. In all, 11 national and two Quebec polls were conducted, with a grand total of 27,224 interviews.

The NDP led in June with an average of 32.6% support, a jump of 4.1 points since May, their fourth consecutive month of increase, and their best score since August 2012.

The Conservatives dropped 1.6 points to 28.6%, their worst since July 2014 and their fourth month of decrease or stagnation.

The Liberals were down 2.1 points to 26.3%, their worst result since February 2013 (before Justin Trudeau became leader) and their 11th consecutive month of stagnation or decline. That is a long series of bad polling months.

The Bloc Québécois, with newly minted returning leader Gilles Duceppe, was up 1.3 points to 5.5%, surpassing the Greens. They were down 1.1 points to 5.4%, their lowest result since September 2014.

The New Democrats experienced a big shift in their polling ranges, scoring between 28% and 36% in polls conducted in June. That compares to a range of 24% to 30% in May. The Conservatives and Liberals were both down in their ranges, the Tories dropping from 28% to 33% in May to 26% to 31% in June. The Liberals went from 26% to 31% to 23% to 32% this month, meaning their floor dropped but their ceiling actually increased a little.

Click to magnify

The NDP led in British Columbia with 37.7%, up 5.8 points since May and their best result since August 2012. With a 10.8-point advantage over the Conservatives, it was the biggest lead any party has enjoyed in B.C. since 2011. The Conservatives were down one point to 26.9%, their worst since December 2013, while the Liberals were down three points to 23.6%, their worst since March 2013. The Greens were down 1.6 points to 10%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives dropped 0.4 points to 46.8%. The NDP was up 2.6 points to 29.6%, their best on record, while the Liberals were up 0.6 points to 17.4%. This was the only province or region in which the Liberals saw their poll numbers improve. The Greens were down for the third consecutive month here, falling 1.2 points to 3.8%.

The Conservatives were down 1.5 points to 38.5% in the Prairies, followed by the NDP at 27.7%. That was an increase of 3.1 points and their best result since January 2014. The Liberals fell 0.9 points to 26.4%, putting them in third place in the region for the first time under Trudeau. The Greens were up 0.3 points to 5.9%.

The race is about as close as it gets in Ontario. The Conservatives edged out the other parties with 31.8%, down 2.7 points and their worst result since July 2014. The NDP was up 6.4 points to 31.3%, their best since June 2012 and marking a gain of 13 points in just four months. The Liberals were down 2.2 points to 30.1%, their worst since February 2013. They have been stagnant or dropping in Ontario for nine consecutive months. The Greens were down 1.4 points to 5%.

The New Democrats held on to the lead in Quebec despite dropping 0.7 points, falling to 34.9%. The Bloc Québécois moved into second, picking up 5.9 points with the arrival of Duceppe to reach 22.3%. That is the party's best result since February 2014, well before Mario Beaulieu's tenure. The Liberals were down 2.6 points to 22.3%, their worst since the end of 2012 and their ninth consecutive month of decline. The Conservatives were down 0.7 points to 15.7%, while the Greens were down 1.2 points to 3.5%.

The Liberals led only in Atlantic Canada, where they were down 2.4 points to 41.1%. The NDP was up 2.7 points to 28.1%, marking the worst and best results for these parties since 2013. The Conservatives were up 0.1 points to 23.2%, while the Greens were down 0.6 points to 5.7%.

With these levels of support, the NDP would likely win 127 seats, a gain of 18 over May's projection. The Conservatives would win 117 seats, a decrease of 11 seats, while the Liberals would win 90 seats (down nine). The Bloc would take three seats and the Greens one.

The NDP made big strides in the seat count in British Columbia (up six) and Ontario (up eight), while also picking up a handful of seats in Alberta (two), the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada (one each). But their new position is largely due to their gains in B.C. and Ontario.

The Conservatives accordingly lost seats in B.C. and Ontario, dropping four in each. They were also down a seat in Alberta, the Prairies, and Quebec.

The Liberals were down four seats in Ontario, two in Quebec, and one each in B.C., Alberta, and Atlantic Canada.

The Bloc has gone from zero seats in May to three, while the Greens have gone from two to one.

We can see where the NDP's path to a plurality is located with these numbers. They need to maintain a sizable lead in British Columbia and Quebec, while splitting Ontario three-ways. That is enough to put them in a position to win more seats than the Conservatives, and thus likely giving them the opportunity to form a minority government. It is still a razor's edge, though. That gap of 10 seats over the Tories is very fragile, considering the potential for error in both the polls and the seat projection model. Nevertheless, it is remarkable that the NDP is in this position when, just a few short months ago, they were an afterthought in the race.

79 comments:

How do you get 2 Liberals in the territories? If you apply the national swing there, i can see the Liberals picking up Yukon where they lost very narrowly in 2011, but Western Arctic went NDP by a huge margin and Nunavut was won my Leona Agglukak by a landslide as well...not sure where a second Liberal seat would come from?

Also, i know its all just a mathematical projection, but i have a very hard time seeing the Liberals get 10 seats in BC in the context of such a strong NDP showing.

Can only see the Con's just go down another 2-3% in support, only thing going on is bad news almost weekly for them. Can't see Tom sh*ting the bed at the debates, plus I don't wonder boy Justin out dueling Tom or Harper at the debates. Harper's govt would make Frank Underwood proud.

I think it means that Canadians are both in a foul mood and, as yet, undecided where they will park their vote.Apparently, most of the votes are going anywhere but to the Conservatives,

In the current House sitting, the Conservatives needed155 seats for a majority. They are nowhere near that now.It gets worse. The October election will see the House of Commons grow to 338 seats. To have a simple majority the Conservatives would need 170 seats.As things stand, they are not even close to that number.

The very best the Conservatives could hope for is minority a government but that would require support from the NDP. Liberals, the Bloc or the Greens assuming all elected members.

I think it is safe to say that the Liberals will not supportHarper after their nasty ads, the NDP certainly won't, the Greens won't and that would only leave the Bloc and they may not elect anyone and certainly not enough to keep Harper in power.

So, I think we are headed for a change of government,most likely a minority NDP or possibly a majority.Either way, Harper is on his way out whether anyonewants to admit it or not.

I'm so excited about this election. If the NDP wins, and maybe if they keep power another time, we will have truly 3 national parties. Right now we have 2.5 party system (much better than the US), where the NDP is half national party. I'm not counting the Bloc or the Greens as choices, because so far, they never led in any poll whatsoever, no disregard to their supporters.

This will probably in a better democracy, as people will have more choices.

What I mean is that the NDP nationally have to get a much better leader compared to other parties to be able to compete. If you compare Mulcair approval numbers compared to the NDP approvals, you see he outpaces it by much bigger margin. The net positive is around +20, which harper has around 25-30 points, but the difference nationally is few points. Trudeau is at -5 territory, and he is still competitive. In a true 3 party system, you shouldn't see this huge discrephancy, they should pretty much correlate to each other.

During the Trudeau honeymoon, the NDP collapsed to low twenties which Mulcair is still posting good approval numbers. I can't see the opposite happening in a parallel universe.

I agree fixed election dates suck-not to mention they are diametrically opposed to responsible government. I would question their legitimacy in the Westminster system. As Ira points out their purpose is to create financial strain on political parties who must spend money pre-writ during the quasi-campaign. I think we'll have a mid-August election call.

The most interesting thing is the Liberals continuing downward trend in recent weeks, even in the Atlantic Provinces where they remain strong but trending downward. It seems the lustre is slowly wearing off Trudeau. As for the BQ, it will be no comeback triumph for Duceppe if he merely equals their 2011 performance, when they were drowned in an orange wave. The BQ will not speak for Quebecers when there are ten times more Neo-Democrats in the HoC!

Actually, in the last 7 polls, the Liberals have actually been ahead of the Conservatives in a majority of them. 4 ahead, 2 tied, and one with the Cons over the Liberals. It's the Conservatives that are actually trending downward, quite strongly.

Again, there is simply no way the Conservatives win 52 seats in Ontario in this environment right now. Harper is far less popular than Hudak was, and we saw how the last provincial election turned out for the "right" party with a Liberal government under cloud of corruption, no less. Ontario has always chosen a leader on character and leadership, and Harper is severely lacking now to many in Ontario. As much as there's a shy Conservative vote throughout the rest of the country, there's a shy Liberal vote in Ontario as seen in the last provincial election by the final polls. And the last Federal election thousands and thousands of right of centre Liberals voted for the Conservatives to keep the NDP from forming a majority government, but that's not going to happen this time. Harper is too hated in Ontario. Unless the Liberals and NDP declare war on each other, or there's a fundamental shift in political climate, strategic voting against the Conservatives will be far more persuasive in Ontario that vote splitting. I can't see the PC's winning more than a few seats proportionally than Hudak. The name "Harper" just has too bad a connotation of corruption and anti-Ontario policies in the province.

There are fundamental differences in the way Ontarians approach provincial and federal politics that rarely allows one to equate the performance of a provincial party with that of a federal party. So I don't believe this comparison is warranted at all. Now, having said that, if the NDP starts to move up into the mid-30s in Ontario and up toward 40%, watch out. That small m might surprise everyone and turn into a large M.

@11matt11, I agree that your analysis is a bit too simplistic. For one thing, 14 million people don't think monolithically, and while that description may well apply to disaffected urbanites, it just doesn't fit elsewhere. There's a thick streak of parochial conservatism in rural Ontario that is more likely to hold its nose and vote CPC or stay home than to vote LPC or NDP, and many of them are mad at Wynne and looking for an opportunity to punish her. There are also huge regional differences that make it very hard to generalize about the province in ways you might get away with elsewhere.

While I would love to see the end of Harper, I suspect he'll still see some success in Ontario. Failing some catastrophic collapse (as opposed to the slow decline we've been seeing), I can see them taking between 45 and 60 seats there. (sigh)

There is absolutely no evidence that shows voters in 2011 were voting to stop the NDP from forming government. As best your... assumption... is misguided at worst it's an outright lie.

Voters gave the Tories a majority because the Liberals could not convince them they were a better option and that Iggy had been painted in a poor light by his own action and Con adds. The NDP did not factor into that and this time round people are seeing the NDP as the really, credible and progressive alternative.

The CPC does seem to be acknowledging that. Their recent commends about how there isn't a recession and won't be a recession will be fatal if there is one, but will make them look smart if there isn't one. And they can't be confident right now that they're correct.

ArfMD, if you noticed, I accounted for the rural vote in my reply. I never said that the Conservatives would get less seats than Hudak. I said they won't win too many more seats, and that meant they would win most of rural Ontario, which seems to have gotten even more Conservative in the last few years, with all he Rush Limbaugh/Fox News type of American influence.

No doubt that Ontario politics in the past has been different federally and provincially. Ontarioans were known to vote conservative provincially, and trended to left federally. But think about that. How far to the right is this Conservative of 2015, compared to federal PC's of the 1970's and 80's? And Ontario is far more to the left socially, compared to the past. We elected a gay Premier without too many really thinking about it, election night.

No doubt modern day politics in Ontario can be complex compared to a little more than a generation ago. But I think Harper has totally miscalculated in Ontario, about how far right wing we actually will go since he's been in a majority government. He thought he won with his politics last time, when actually people just wanted no stability.

And that's why the last provincial election is important to this federal election. Hudak allowed himself to be portrayed an American Tea party candidate, which was a very strange move in the history of Ontario politics. Ontarioans rejected that to the point of re-electing a corrupt Ontario Liberal government who seemed tired to be in power.

The last election many many Ontarioans were tired of a minority government that wasn't working, got spooked by NDP govenment after memories of Bob Rae, and many centre right voters voted Conservative. Again, considering where Harper has placed himself on the Canadian political scale, that's simply not going to happen this time. Harper could turn out an excellent campaign and get his 52 seats, but as it sits right now, there's simply no chance, unless the Liberals and NDP attack each other in Ontario. There's just too much anti far right mood in Ontario, let alone the country. The shy Liberal vote that show's up in the polls won't be shy to kick out this government. I think Harper is in huge trouble in Ontario.

Ira, unless there is a total fundamental turnaround in the numbers, the economy is going to be seen as weak to the voters, no matter if decent numbers come in. It takes two full quarters of strong growth for people and economists to feel the economy is back on track. The economy, at the very minimum, will not help the Conservatives in the election - which is never a good sign for the government.

@11matt11, you are crafting a revisionist history of the last election. The NDP went no where in large part because they tried to push too far to the centre and allowed the Liberals to craft a campaign that at least appeared to be the left of the NDP. This pushed a significant number of traditional NDP voters to the Liberals, and a significant number of former PC voters to the NDP. That shows in where the NDP gained and lost seats. It wasn't about being "spooked" by the idea of an NDP government. If that was what had happened, the polls would have shown the NDP steadily rising, and then falling at the last minute. That isn't what they showed at all.

TS, I said many centre rights voted for the CONSERVATIVE party in the last election, not the PC's. So of course, I was talking about the last federal election, not the last provincial one. I thought that was clear considering the party I stated, but I apologize if it wasn't. In terms of the last federal one, yes, people were worried about an NDP government, because although Layton captured the country's imagination, people in Ontario still remembered the disastrous Bob Rae NDP government, and were not totally sure of what an NDP victory would mean, economically. What I'm saying is that there is no fear this time, so moderates will not worry about voting NDP, which is what we're seeing in the polls. Now this might bring in the thought of vote splitting, which is where the 52 seat number for the Cons comes in. But I'm saying there's such a anti-far right and anti-Harper sentiment, that many moderates will strategically vote NDP or Liberal depending on who in their riding has the best chance to beat the Conservative candidate, so this will nullify any Conservative advantage. So that's why, just like in the political election, the seat projections for the Conservatives in Ontario could be very very wrong.

Actually, in the last 7 polls, the Liberals have actually been ahead of the Conservatives in a majority of them. 4 ahead, 2 tied, and one with the Cons over the Liberals. It's the Conservatives that are actually trending downward, quite strongly.

I had to go back and check that, but you are definitely right. the Liberals are on a rise, just not as fast as the NDP. The Conservatives, on the other hand are in a downward slide and have been since the of middle of May.It is still too early yet to see how it goes but I bet Harper's thinking he should have taken that long walk in the snow, like Pierre Trudeau years ago.It was a smart move for Trudeau then and would have been for Harper too. But it's too late now.

I don't think that's true. In the period from April 2, 2013 to January 6, 2015, the LPC led or tied for the lead in all polls but seven. In those polls, their support was generally in the mid- to upper-thirties, with some polls showing support in the low- to mid-forties. Then there was the period from January 11 to June 5, 2015 where the LPC led or tied for the lead in seventeen polls out of forty two, a much more mixed bag, with support numbers reflecting that, in the low- to mid-thirties with some polls showing support in the high twenties. In the period since June 5, the Liberals have led in no polls and have not registered a support level above 29%, with most polls showing support between 23 and 28%.

So really no, the LPC has not being rising, or at most there has been a very slight rise from the worst of the worst at the beginning of June.

TS, the polls are right on this site, in front of you. Just click on them over at the . In the last seven polls versus the Conservatives the Liberals are up 4, tied in 2 and behind 1. It's right there. I never said the Liberals are rising., but the Conservatives are definitely falling.

Harper has seen off 5 Official Opposition leaders, I wouldn't count him out yet, Mulcair has had some good numbers of late but, so did Broadbent in the summer of 1988, all it got him was third place. Trudeau will be fighting hard to win back Official Opposition and Harper just as hard to remain in Government, Mulcair is still a long way from 24 Sussex.

The Grits are up slightly although this may simply be a temporary arresting of the slide in support which we have seen for the past year. I think the good news for the Liberals is as the election approaches Trudeau becomes a contender for PM instead of merely the leader of the third party. I don't have much faith that Trudeau will turn this opportunity into success but at least he'll get more media attention.

And when all the 18-29 year olds who are now answering these polls on their cell phones don't actually show up to vote, we'll have another Conservative government, if not majority, and everyone will be shocked. NDP support is very bottom heavy in the age categories.

Actually, the NDP has good support across all age groups, with increased support from older voters who are more likely to vote. See EKOS poll:http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/20150703_slide04.jpg

NDP support is extremely bottom heavy, and no They won't vote in any greater numbers than usual, and this isn't Alberta. BC is a better analogy. And yes Canada needs to start using likely voter models in polls and declare undecideds not reassign them. Undecideds are undecided, unlikely to vote is unlikely to vote.

That's got to be due to small sample size. It's also that 26% in Quebec which is making it look as if the CPC made a major national gain. Compared to Forum's last poll, the CPC is up 8% in Quebec, 11% in the Atlantic and 9% in Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Those probably account for the CPC rising 5% nationally from one poll to another. What I don't understand is Bozinoff's seat projection model which says that this rise, coming in Manitoba, Quebec and the Atlantic will result in essentially a fifty seat transfer from LPC to CPC.

I don't know if their methodology is flawed or what, but that's the second time in a month that Forum's numbers are just too whack to take seriously. Where are all these conservative Quebecers coming from?

I don't know if the poll is accurate but, Quebec voters have been in flux for a number of years so, to me it at least seems possible. People in Quebec voted for Jack not the NDP therefore I would expect some movement among 2011 Quebec NDP voters especially among federalists.

To say something like that, you cannot be living in Québec. The CPC is almost seen as the incarnation of evil here (ok, slight exaggeration). But, the point is, while they do have their pockets of support (Québec City, Saguenay and Mauricie), they are nowhere near competitive in any other region. I wouldn't be surprised if they did worse than the 16,5% they received in 2012 (but election campaigns are important, so I won't place a bet on it just yet).

How strange, Quebeckers are seen as almost the incarnation of evil everywhere else in Canada (slight hyperbole). Since, France realised Martinique was of far greater value to them than Quebec the usefulness of Quebec and her people have been sorely tested and rarely proven.

As we have witnessed since the last election NDP support in Quebec has fluctuated violently usually towards the lower end of their range, Liberal numbers have also risen and fallen with great speed and effect. Perhaps the NDP believes they have Quebec all sewn up but, most polls and common sense would point to a much more uncertain outcome.

I think the ultimate fate of the Harper government will be determined by one question:

Did we have a recession in 2015?

If we did, I don't see how he can win without at least one of Mulcair and Trudeay doing something monumentally dumb, or Duceppe somehow winning 30+ seats in Quebec, or there being a really well-timed terrorist attack.

Canada's economy is in recession. Two consecutive quarters of 'flat to negative growth'.Saying it isn't so won't hide this fact.Joe Oliver media moments come across as shallow, unconvincing spin.

Harper's final undoing may very well begin August 6. He is uncomfortable facing legitimate questions from the leader of the Official Opposition in Question Period. It's fair to say the PM risks getting eviscerated in a live, televised debate.

Millions of people, istm, are of like-minded on this point: Payback. This PM deserves it -because he earned it, coast to coast ... to coast. Sad, but true.

How can you know Canada is in a recession when the GDP statistics for May and June are not yet quantified or released? Canada may be in a recession but, we'll have to wait until the numbers come out to say with metaphysical certainty whether it is or isn't!

Increasingly, I am becoming very cynical of pollsters due to the current slew of polls being released. The fluidity of the current political environment tells us nothing apart from we don’t really know anything meaningful. It has also become tiresome reading analyses of various pollsters highlighting very circumstantial trends especially since different polls seem to contradict one-another on these patterns. So I’m very skeptic of attempts to coagulate data at a point where results are so fluid --assuming the data results from these polls are even reliable.

Not to imply that pollsters are not reliable but within 3 days we’ve been told by pollsters that Conservatives are bleeding with very little room to grow upwards, then we’re told that Conservatives are “surging” and in majority territory.

I feel as if we’ve entered an era of hyper-polling in politics where we try to squeeze something out of nothing because we fear the unknown so much. But because we avoid the unknown, we deprive ourselves the opportunity to intelligently assess our options. This is what leads to such volatility on E-Day.

Don't pay attention to the headlines assigned to the polls, particularly Forum who seem to delight in writing ludicrous headlines as clickbait. Pay attention to the actual substance of the polls. The latest Forum poll is very likely an outlier.

I find the new Forum poll hard to believe. Of course, what I believe has nothing to do with the way votes move across the country. People will make up their own minds or the party ads will do it for them.

However, I would want to see a lot of other polls showing the same trend before I think it can be called credible.

We will be bombarded with polls from now until election day. Most will come from the media like CBC or Torstar.Some will be commissioned by the political parties themselves.

A single poll cannot be considered the definitive answer as to which way the public intends to vote, You really have to go with the aggregate vote. Fortunately we have this site to go to for that information.

There is no guarantees. The only poll that counts is the one taken by voters on election day.

There was a recent poll where by forum on bill C-377 (Disclosure of Union finances)

Just as the unions are gearing with funding 3rd party attack ads on Harper and CUPE members are becoming candidates for the Liberals and NDP we find that 62 % support bill c-377 and only 18% are against it.

Only 28% of union members polled are against the bill.

Canadians across every province are for the bill with the lowest support in BC of 59%.

Union leadership fought this bill with all they had.

"“We’ll redouble our efforts to make sure Harper doesn’t get re-elected,” OFL President Sid Ryan said of the bill’s passage."

I'm amazed that union members are ever okay with their union spending their money on secret projects.

Unions are valuable and important tools for collective bargaining. But that's all they should do. If I were in a union that was running political adds, I would be livid (the worst offender I've seen is the BCTF).

The polls keep showing the CPC slipping. With all the tax funded ads and incumbent advantages this is all they can muster? Wait when the writ is dropped and the playing field is level. They will sink like a stone.

People really need to take a summer vacation and start analyzing in full once the writ is dropped. Also, Harper is one of the most shrewd politicians this nation has ever seen. He wouldn't have chosen to run again if he didn't think he had a legitimate shot. Harper had as good of chance, probably better, as Mulcair and definitely Trudeau to be victorious.

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Details on the methodology of the poll aggregation and seat projections are available here and here. Methodology for the forecasting model used during election campaigns is available here.

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