Tag Archives: college football prognostications

Kickoff Editor Offers Early 2018 College Football Analysis

2018 College Football Preview

We made it through that cold, dark place between the national title game and the start of spring football. Tommy Duff, Editor of The Kickoff newsletter offers another round of springtime college football analysis.

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Asked who he expects to have a better year in 2018, Duff said he has an eye on the Penn State Nittany Lions, who return both Quarterback McSorley and Wide Receiver Thompkins. “Miles Sanders leads to fill Barkley’s place at Running Back,” Duff said. The team went to 7–0 to begin the 2017 season, before losing on consecutive weekends to Ohio State and Michigan State. They finished the regular season with wins over Rutgers, Nebraska and Maryland before beating Washington, 35–28, at the Fiesta Bowl.

Of course, Alabama continues to demand its perineal spot in the pre-season national title conversation based on recent performance. The Crimson Tide finished the 2017 season with a record of 13–1, losing to Auburn before defeating eventual SEC Champion Georgia in the College Football Playoff. “Obviously the big question for Bama in 2018 is whether Sophomore Tua Tagovailoa or Junior Jalen Hurts will win the starting job for the Tide,” Duff said. Hurts led Bama to the title game two consecutive years, but Tagovailoa was named the Offensive MVP of the national title game after replacing an ineffective Hurts in the second half. Offseason departures included Minkah Fitzpatrick, Calvin Ridley, Bo Scarbrough, and Rashaan Evans, but Nick Saban is expected to simply reload.

The Kickoff College Football Bowl Preview

It’s time for teams to go bowling. We’re already in the thick of the bowl schedule as it all builds to the New Year’s Day matchups. The Kickoff will publish our wrap up issue on January 10th, but Editor Tommy Duff shared some thoughts ahead of that.

“The most interesting matchup that is not in the College Football Playoff is USC vs. Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 29th,” Duff said. “OSU feels like they deserved to be in the playoff, but USC has just as strong of an argument, also going 11-2 during the regular season, and they lost against a stronger team than Iowa.”

Boise State, Troy, Georgia State, Marshall, and Middle Tennessee have all won their bowls so far and are looking ahead to next season. The Kickoff listed the complete bowl schedule (with our Kickoff Power Rankings) in Issue 16, out Dec. 11th.

Duff said the post-season is generally more difficult to predict this year.

“The Orange Bowl Winner will be whoever has any motivation left between Miami and Wisconsin. (They are) two teams in playoff contention all year that fell apart in the final week,” Duff said. “I think Auburn should win against UCF, which is losing their head coach. I expect LSU to win against Notre Dame, which is overmatched.”

“Regarding the College Football Playoffs, can a Big XII offense take care of business against a defense as talented as Georgia’s? I think they can, but UGA has the potential to give Baker Mayfield problems,” Duff said. “Of course, the marquee matchup is the third playoff meeting between Bama and Clemson. Clemson was playing better towards the end of the year, but Bama should be much healthier and is still the team to beat.”

If Georgia prevails in the Rose Bowl and Alabama beats Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, producing an All-SEC national championship game, Duff said experience points to Alabama winning. “If Oklahoma beats Georgia, then I think they will beat Bama,” he said.

In addition to winning the Heisman, Baker Mayfield led several of the stats this season, including percentage of completed passes, efficiency rating, total yards per play, and being responsible for touchdowns at 46. He was also named to the 2017 Kickoff All American team, along with Sooners Mark Andrews, Orlando Brown, and Obgonnia Okoronkwo. These ingredients combine for a potent threat to Clemson defending its national title if the two teams should go head-to-head.

“As we close our 67th season in publication, we would like to thank all of our corporate and individual subscribers for continuing to support The Kickoff,” Duff said. “It’s an honor to be given the opportunity to share your excitement for the sport of college football every fall. College football is not only a game; it’s a cultural pastime shared throughout the United States, and we are truly blessed to spend Saturdays with you. We look forward to seeing you in 2018. We wish you a safe and happy holidays!”

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What to Expect from the Expanded Kickoff Newsletter

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When the 2017 season of The Kickoff begins with issue #1 (August 2017), the electronic/PDF version will contain two additional pages of new information. According to Tommy Duff, Editor of the college football newsletter, the content will specifically focus on providing details of use to those making game picks. Since many of our readers are considering whether to renew their subscriptions for the fall, we felt this would be a good time to preview what’s being added!

“(The Kickoff) will be making choices based on point spreads as well as our proprietary formula,” Duff said. “It’s an additional formulation based on the spread and not The Kickoff formulas used to rank teams generally.”

Duff said one of the new pages in each weekly PDF issue (6 pages total) will offer extended stats such as points for and against, records against the spread, OOC records, division records, and similar information broken down into more useful bits.

Why add this? Because we know you have many choices for seeking out information about college football, and we want to remain one of the best sources.

We’re Betting You’re Going to Like the Changes

The Kickoff knows that there are all sorts of reasons to seek out prognostications, including betting on outcomes. These can range from friendly wagers and office pools for bragging rights to the sort of action that has created a billion-dollar gambling industry online and in casinos.

“The first part of the process are the betting lines and spreads that are routinely set by Oddsmakers. A betting line is designed to handicap a specific sporting event to even-out the playing field between a favorite and an underdog. When it comes to a sport such as football, a spread in points is created as the most popular way to even things out. It is important to remember that a point spread is not designed to predict what the margin of victory will be in any particular game, rather it is designed as a betting tool that aims to even-out the money that is bet on either side of that matchup,” Schwab writes.

Some who participate in sports betting use sportsbooks such as Bovada, BetOnline or 5Dimes. Schwab points to the importance of getting information from unbiased sources. Unlike a lot of websites that also offer information, tips and hints, The Kickoff is NOT in the business of accepting wagers – we simply exist to give our subscribers the best available information as we see it through our proprietary system.

The Kickoff also doesn’t play favorites when it comes to ranking teams, although, we’ll admit that past performance nearly always factors into future expectations. A certain outcome is probable based on a number of factors that go into objectively analyzing the teams. We compare teams’ history and average scores at home, on the road, and on neutral ground, as well as difficulty of schedule, and other considerations.

More Than Just Another Computer Algorithm

By adding the human element to fine-tune what the sportsbooks likely recommend as well, The Kickoff earns its reputation as one of the most accurate sources for NCAA statistics and prognostication since we started all of this in 1951.

Bite-sized bits of information bring you instantly up to speed in a no-nonsense format that fits your busy lifestyle. Overall Stats give you a larger perspective on how the home and road favorites have performed throughout the season against the spread.

Our Kickoff Top 25 paints a quick picture of where the schools and conferences stand, listing their win-loss record so far in the season, along with their respective Kickoff Power Ratings. Teams do evolve as a season progresses; as game results come in over several weeks, the ratings are effectively calibrated.

All of this information is created so our readers aren’t “flying blind” when the time comes to make their picks. Let’s face it: Knowledge IS power. The Kickoff is here for you like a friend obsessed with college football, sharing our opinions on how games are likely to turn out. As long as you’re a subscriber, we’re perfectly fine being your “cheat sheet” to convince your workmates and buddies that you’re some sort of genius when it comes to the game.

During the Season, we work hard on weekends to make sure the latest edition hits your email inbox by Monday morning. We want to give you plenty of time to use us as a helpful tool when deciding on your weekly picks. This timeliness factor, combined with the two additional pages, are why so many of our subscribers who’ve traditionally received a printed version of The Kickoff delivered by First Class Mail are now opting to go electronic instead. We’ve adapted for this fast-paced online world we now live in.

Sports Gambling: From Office Pools to Casino Action

At casinos like the Atlantis Race & Sports Book in the Bahamas, there are simultaneous HD video feeds, dozens of personal betting stations and even VIP betting stations. Sports wagering has become a huge business.

The Kickoff encourages readers to use it carefully when factoring in decisions on wagering money.

“If you are relatively new to sports betting, then you might want to limit your wagers to straight bets using a set point spread… A straight bet would be a set amount of money wagered on the favorite giving the points or on the underdog getting the points,” Schwab writes.

With straight bets, a betting line called the point spread is set, and you can either bet on the favorite and give-up the points or place a bet on the underdog and get the points. The favorite has to win the game by more than the set point spread in order to cash-in. The underdog has to win outright or lose by less than the point spread to “cover” and win the bet. Ties in this situation are known as a “push” and no money is lost or won.

The betting public tends to gravitate towards the top 25 teams in the nation when it comes to betting on college football. Schwab writes that because of the sheer volume of teams in Division IA football, most professional handicappers “tend to gravitate towards a limited selection of teams when it comes to releasing selections for the games.”

The Kickoff’s first issue of the season traditionally ranks the Preseason Top 50, with each successive week listing our Top 25 rankings (which may vary from other polls based on our analysis) right next to the previous week’s ratings for comparison viewing. The Kickoff also includes select Division I FCS team schedules because we know those schools and games matter as well to our readers.

Schwab points out that college and professional games differ because the love of the game and the emotional aspect of intense rivalries must be factored into matchups. Underdogs come into mismatches with huge chips on their shoulders because they have something to prove.

“Betting on sports is not as nearly as easy as it may appear and the average bettor is making nothing more than an educated guess at best when betting on the outcome of any sporting event… Even the best handicappers struggle to keep their winning percentage above 60 percent, so there is no such thing as a ‘sure bet’ or a ‘lock’ when taking this approach to wagering on sports. That’s why they call it gambling.”

With the additions set to arrive in the 2017 editions of The Kickoff, we’re providing you with even more information to use however you see fit.

Midseason Reflections on College Football Season

We are midway through the 2015 College Football Season and the stakes of each game are getting higher as we inch closer to the Playoffs!

Tommy Duff, Editor of The Kickoff, reflected on the season thus far and the challenges ahead for teams still in the hunt…

In the Oct. 19th edition of Kickoff Top 25, we had TCU and Ohio State replaced in the top spots by Utah and LSU. There were 14 undefeated teams in our Top 25, with single-loss Alabama ranked at No. 9. Our Strength of Schedule analysis in that issue showed that Ohio State played a schedule with the largest difference between their ranking and their average opponent ranking in 2015. This indicates that the Buckeyes may not have the “easiest” straight schedule, but in regards to their official rating, they have more of a schedule advantage than any other team in the country.

“Ohio State hasn’t looked good against lower rated teams and does not have any quality wins, plus they have two quarterbacks, which means they don’t have a quarterback,” Duff said. “TCU has been inconsistent. They only beat Iowa State (which had a 2-4 record) by 24 points last week. That’s the second time they’ve nearly been knocked off by a lower rated team.”

The Kickoff was high on Utah and LSU based on several factors, including wins against quality opponents in top-rated conferences, including the Tigers’ win over a Florida team that was undefeated until last week. “At this point, Utah has the most quality wins” over teams like Michigan, California, Arizona State and putting up 62 points against Oregon. Utah ended up losing Saturday to USC 42-24. LSU beat Western Kentucky 48-20.

In the Oct. 26 issue, LSU lept to the top of our Top 25 while Clemson jumped from No. 7 to No. 4. FSU, which lost a heartbreaker to Georgia Tech, fell from No. 8 to No. 15. Alabama moved up two spots after beating Tennessee in a close one.

Duff said he expects the winner of the Alabama-LSU game to be in the Playoffs. “Leonard Fournette is one of the best players we’ve seen since Bo Jackson in terms of pure natural talent, speed and size. He just demolishes people, which is very rare. He hasn’t had less than 150 yards in a game all season. It is possible LSU is going to fall a bit in the ratings as their schedule eases up. When you look at strength of teams played, they benefitted from their opener against McNeese State being cancelled due to weather on Sept. 5th.”

In other words, we still have a lot of football left to play.

The weeks ahead will determine which coaches get pink slips or trophies. We’ve already seen Steve Spurrier and Steve Sarkisian leave their teams after 2-4 and 3-2 starts respectively. “I knew Spurrier wouldn’t last long with the way South Carolina was performing, but I was surprised he quit in the middle of the season,” Duff said.

Ohio State was atop our Preseason Top 25. Our No. 3 pick, Auburn, is perhaps the biggest shocker of the year, now at 4-3 and out of playoff contention after Saturday’s 4-Overtime game at Arkansas. The Tigers still have Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, Idaho, and Alabama remaining on their schedule.

“The media, including The Kickoff, bought into a lot of hype about Jeremy Johnson based on the limited amount of work he did last season as a starter, which looked fabulous and suggested he had better skills than Nick Marshall, but the kid lost his confidence after throwing interceptions, plus Auburn lost Carl Lawson, who was supposed to be their leader on defense and an All-American. Gus Malzahn forgot how important a mobile quarterback was in his system,” Duff said.

Our games of the week last week were Clemson at Miami, FL and Tennessee at Alabama.

We went with undefeated Clemson, which enjoyed a 13.6 difference in Power Ratings with the 4-2 Hurricanes. “Clemson could be in the playoffs, as they have done their thing under the radar this season. They’ll need better quarterback play to get past Florida State on Nov. 7th,” Duff said. The Tigers shut them out 58-0, leading to Al Golden being fired this week.

We assigned the Crimson Tide (6-1) a 9 point difference in Power Ratings over the Volunteers. Duff expected the game to be a close one. “Butch Jones has taken the leash off Josh Dobbs and let him play his own game. Statistically, Tennessee ran the ball all over Georgia. Alabama’s defense is set up to stop a classic pro offense and has problems whenever they face a spread offense with a mobile quarterback,” he said. Bama ended up winning 19-14.

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Also, test your knowledge of college football by participating in our Thursday Throwdown trivia on Facebook. We stumped quite a few people this week with our question about the 1985 Fresno State team that was the only unbeaten Division 1-A team in the country, ranked 16th in the Coaches Poll that year.

Talk to us this weekend while we watch the games. Which upsets are you expecting? How is your team doing so far this year? Sound off! Use the hashtag #thekickoff on Facebook and Twitter so we can follow your conversations.

Enjoy this weekend’s games. We’ll be watching alongside you.

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