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Re: Offseason Thread

1.) Betances when hes on is arguably one of the best RP in all of baseball. With how badly he finished the season He's really at his absolute lowest value right now thats why I'd be hesitant to trade him.
2.) Otani - I honestly don't know all that much about him other than hes being called the Japanese Babe Ruth. What the hell does that even mean idk He can hit 60 homers and win 20 games? Sounds too good to be true. If the yankees are as dead set as they appear to be in going under the cap Otani seems like he would be too expensive.
3.) Clint Frazier- So at least a few seem to be willing to trade him. But why not see if he can win the LF job out of camp? I was impressed from the few abs I saw of him hes got a lightning quick bat I think he could be a really big piece for this team. Let Gardy go and Ellsbury is just a very expensive hood ornament at this point so there is definitely a spot for him on this team.
4.) As far as Bumgarner goes I'm just not convinced he's really that good. I know he's not old but he's been in MLB for a long time and has good mileage on that arm hes a flyball pitcher who also has had the benefit of pitching in by far the most pitcher friendly NL park. I think you'd really be over paying for his name value and what he's done in the playoffs. Just a quick run down if you compare him and Sonny Gray in what they did in 2017 they are actually a lot closer than what you'd expect.
Gray xFIP 3.76 SwingStr% 11.9% K% 22.6% GB% 52.8%
Bum xFIP 4.07 Swingstr% 10.6% K% 22.4% GB% 40.8%
When I look at this and then factor in Bum gets the benefit of pitching in the NL -I'm really not convinced he's worth what it would cost to get him.

Re: Offseason Thread

In no particular order, but focused on position players until Tanaka announces his decision:

1. Sign JD Martinez.

I can't believe people still aren't understanding how good he is. Drooling over adding Harper to the lineup? He has basically been Bryce Harper for the past 3 years and put up better offense over that time period than Altuve, Goldy, Stanton, Bryant, Rizzo, Miggy. I'm guessing you could get him for 4 years at $20-23M/year, similar to Encarnacion's deal. That's a bargain and gives flexibility to break in some guys like Andujar and Torres.

This team is young enough to go with a full-time DH, but he can also play RF and probably 1B in a pinch if you want to give Judge or Bird a half-day at DH. Imagine you swapped out the Headley/Ells combo during the postseason with JD Martinez batting behind Judge.

This assumes he's still undervalued (as evidenced by the return at the trade deadline). If teams start running up the price, you can easily platoon Tyler Austin vs. lefties and see if one of Ford/Choi/McKinney can handle the righties.

2. Move Ells, Headley, and Castro.

You're going to have to eat some money with Ellsbury and Headley, but Castro could probably be shipped out as a salary dump. If you can save $20-25M a year by moving these guys, you create some salary space for Martinez (or Otani), at least through 2019.

Ells is no loss in the OF. Castro can be replaced by Wade or Torres. Either may struggle initially, but at least they'll be batting at the 9th spot instead of 5th. I expect the defense to be better as well. Optimally, Torres is the 2B and you can use Wade as a Zobrist type. Headley replaced by Frazier on a 1 year deal or with Andujar.

3. Make roster space for Rule 5 guys or trade them to replenish lower levels.

Guys like Cave, McKinney, Ford, etc. need to either be protected or moved for guys that don't need protection. Can't afford to let them get sniped in the R5 draft. Low-hanging fruit here. Get the best value you can without regard to future needs.

You can add these guys as sweeteners in packages involving Frazier, Betances, and Adams, who I think should also be dangled as trade chips.

And for the love of God, get Mitchell off this roster.

4.[Pipe dream trade proposal alert] Ask about availability of Rendon.

He's a free agent in 2020, so you only get two years of him, but he's elite offensively and defensively. Nats won't be able to sign him on top of Harper and Strasburg/Scherzer, so they might be willing to part ways. They're more likely to move him at the 2019 deadline, but I'd check in nonetheless. They'd probably have interest in Betances and Adams to start with since their bullpen and bottom of the rotation suck. If you can move some R5 guys for a catcher to flip, you might be in business, especially since Frazier and Moustakas could be had as free agents by the Nats to replace some of his production.

Re: Offseason Thread

Originally Posted by nnysiny

The Yankees are going to have an elite offense and relief pitching by staying pat, so virtually all of the focus should be on starting pitching. Hopefully CC comes back on a reasonable deal. Both Cobb and Darvish should be potential targets. See if you can get a top pitcher for Gleyber, and they should be open to trading Clint and Chance too. As already mentioned they should see if Bumgarner is available, and check with the Cardinals about Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez.

This is absurd. The Yankees aren't trading baseball's number one prospect.
They made their big pitching trade with Gray. From here out it will be FA's or prospects getting a shot.

Frazier and Garcia were added but will also come off as FA's who shouldnt be resigned.

The Luxury tax threshhold for next year is 197 million

The threshhold is based on the AAV of all the players on the 40 man roster, plus about 14 million $ for benefits. The 15 extra players on the 40 man will make MLB minimum, or approximately 7.5 MM$ total for all 15. So the payroll for LT purposes is the AAV for the 25 man roster + 7.5 MM$ + 14 MM$. And this has to get below 197 MM$ to avoid the tax. That means if the 2018 opening day 25-man roster salary is below about 175 MM$, we are under the threshhold.

Total 171.63 which is comfortably below the 175 million mentioned earlier. Not only that, this roster is stacked, so there will be no need for midseason upgrades, so the difference between the opening day 40 and the season ending 40 should not be different.

Re: Offseason Thread

Originally Posted by ChinMusic

If they sin Otani and retain Tanaka, there is no place for CC unless they go to a 6-man rotation.

Well not necessarily. Montgomery goes to the minors in the event of an inevitable injury and you've got a cavalcade of arm reinforcements at AAA between he, Adams and Sheffield. A rotation of Tanaka, Severino, Gray, CC and Ohtani seems pretty solid to me.

As for a DH spot, I get the feeling Girardi would prefer that to be the spot where Sanchez/Judge/Bird get a half day so I can't imagine them spending for a full time professional bat.

Re: Offseason Thread

The only way that they could sign JD and still get under the cap in 2018? Let Tanaka walk and sign Otani. Pitching would be a bit compromised but we could see what we have in the minors in preparation for 2019. Then bypass Harper and go after free agent pitching prior to 2019 season. I doubt that Cashman is going to rule out going after JD, especially if the Red Sox are in pursuit. Having said that, can you imagine Harper in Boston? Ugh...

Re: Offseason Thread

Originally Posted by ElDandy

Well not necessarily. Montgomery goes to the minors in the event of an inevitable injury and you've got a cavalcade of arm reinforcements at AAA between he, Adams and Sheffield. A rotation of Tanaka, Severino, Gray, CC and Ohtani seems pretty solid to me.

As for a DH spot, I get the feeling Girardi would prefer that to be the spot where Sanchez/Judge/Bird get a half day so I can't imagine them spending for a full time professional bat.

Why is everyone counting on Ohtani and banking on a guy who hasn't pitched at the MLB level?

Re: Offseason Thread

Originally Posted by Krall

Why is everyone counting on Ohtani and banking on a guy who hasn't pitched at the MLB level?

I am no superior talent and obviously adjustment periods and etc etc etc but the little I've seen jives with what everyone else seems to see; a genuinely prodigious talent able to be acquired for relatively nothing.