Saturday, October 10, 2009

Syria's daring brinkmanship

The visit to Damascus of King Abdullah, the Saudi monarch, is perhaps the best news Syria has received in recent years.

It comes as the crowning culmination of high-level meetings in Kuwait earlier this year and a visit by Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, to Riyadh in September.

For Damascus, such a high-level visit from a leader of a regional powerhouse marks a victory for its political brinkmanship and is an acknowledgement that Syria has matured into an indispensable player in the divided Arab World.

Syrian foreign policy has been basted on two pivotal principles: first, that there are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends; and second, that every situation can and will be used as leverage that will serve national interests and ensure the survivability of the regime.

Such a two-pronged approach is pragmatic when it calculates winnings and losses, and elastic when it absorbs any situation and attempts to turn it to its advantage.

For example, Syria saw no apparent conflict with its declared slogans of "Arab unity" and "Arab brotherhood" when it joined the US in its "war on terror" in 2003 and surrendered several Iraqi leaders who took refuge in its territories in the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq.

Syria also endorsed the 2002 Saudi-brokered Arab Peace Initiative to normalise relations with Tel Aviv and even held bilateral talks with Israel with Turkish mediation.

Turkey's role in bringing Syria to the negotiating table should not be underestimated.

It was through Turkey - which is a US ally, Nato member and maintains diplomatic relations with Israel - that Syria managed to break its regional isolation, imposed by "moderate Arab states" as a punitive measure in the wake of the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri, the former Lebanese premier, and for its support for Hezbollah.

Syria has persistently denied involvement in al-Hariri's death.

Despite its talks with the Israelis, US envoys and attempts to seal intra-Arab differences, Syria maintained its diplomatic elasticity by continuing support for Hezbollah - its most important ally in the region.