Chalk talk: Saints at Rams: How the units stack up

Before every Saints game, I break down the contest in several categories.

In Week 15, New Orleans travels to St. Louis.

Kickoff is set for 3:25 p.m.

Saints rushing offense versus Rams rushing defense:

The Saints don’t feature their rushing attack. It just has to be good enough that opponents have to at least respect it. That’s been hit or miss in 2013. Mostly hit in the Dome at home. Mostly miss on the road. This week in a road game in a dome, something has to give.

St. Louis ranks in the top 10 in the league at 3.9 rush yards per attempt, however the Rams have surrendered a whopping 15 rushing touchdowns – tied for sixth worst in the NFL.

The key for New Orleans is to run it enough to keep St. Louis’ pass rush honest. That’s the difference between a close game and a blowout win. I can see it going either way, so I’ll push.

Push

Saints passing offense versus Rams passing defense:

Drew Brees is just unbelievable – especially in perfect conditions. There will be perfect conditions in the Edward Jones Dome Sunday, however the quarterback doesn’t have a great track record there. In two starts in St. Louis with the Saints, Brees has thrown three touchdowns, four picks and has been sacked seven times.

With the exception of pass rush and takeaways, the Rams have put up little resistance through the air. They give up 249 pass yards per game (11th worst in the NFL), and their league average mark of 19 passing touchdowns is only league average because teams run it in at will against them. However, 12 picks and 38 sacks shows a very opportunistic defense.

Because the Saints have protected Brees much better in the past month and change, I’m giving New Orleans the advantage. But just be warned that the potential for game-changing sacks and turnovers is certainly there.

Advantage: Saints

Rams rushing offense versus Saints rushing defense:

The Rams have been a bit of a thorn in New Orleans’ side. Despite the Rams having one of the worst records in the league in recent years, and the Saints having one of the best, the teams are deadlocked at 2-2 in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era. A common theme was Steven Jackson going off in those games. He may not be walking through that door for St. Louis this year, but Zac Stacy has had a nice rookie year with 721 yards and five touchdowns. The Rams struggled to find any kind of run game until he emerged several weeks ago, so the Rams’ slightly-lower-than middle of the pack rushing stats aren’t indicative of how good they are on the ground now.

The same can be said for New Orleans, who has also improved drastically in stopping the run this year. The Saints are now a full half yard off of worst in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, and if you’ve been reading this weekly breakdown all year, you know how big of an improvement that is. And the Saints remain stiff in the red zone with only nine rushing touchdowns allowed.

New Orleans gets the advantage here because I think they’ll be able to stack the box and focus on Stacy. That’s thanks to the next category.

Advantage: Saints

Rams passing offense versus Saints passing defense:

Yep, New Orleans should be able to stack the box and challenge Kellen Clemens to beat them. In six starts and change after Sam Bradford was lost for the season at Carolina, Clemons has an even five touchdowns and five picks. In two wins, he’s averaged 19 attempts per game and has three picks and no picks. In four losses, he’s averaged 32.5 attempts per game and has two touchdowns and five picks. Clearly New Orleans wants to make Clemens throw it.

With the exception of a hiccup at Seattle, the Saints have been magnificent versus the pass this year with a league third-best 199 passing yards allowed per game and a league tied-for-fifth best 15 passing touchdowns allowed. Sprinkle in 10 picks and 43 sacks, and New Orleans has been a load to handle.

The only way Clemens has an average game is if the Rams control the game on the ground and then some. Otherwise it will be a disaster.

Advantage: Saints.

Special teams:

Thomas Morstead may have finally met his match. Rams punter Johnny Hekker leads the league in net punting, although Morstead, of course, isn’t far behind.

Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein has been reliable at 20-for-22 this year. Garrett Hartley is 21-for-27. He’s made five straight since his midseason struggles.

Tavon Austin has a punt return for a score this year, although his ankle may hamper him a bit if he plays Sunday. New Orleans has no special teams return touchdowns this year, and neither team has allowed a special teams return touchdown.

Advantage: Rams

Coaching:

Jeff Fisher has done his best to change the culture of St. Louis. By and large he’s succeeded. The issue has been changing the roster – arguably the NFL’s worst when he took over a season and a half ago.

You aren’t a 19-year head coach in the NFL if you can’t coach, so give Fisher his due despite his record in St. Louis. However, I’m giving Payton the advantage over just about any schemer in the league.