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The percentage of unemployed is far less important than the trend, which is now working in the president's (and the Democrats') favor. Rising employment coupled with rising consumer confidence speak much more loudly to voters than the speculative charge that the Obama's handling of the recovery could have been better. The GOP is facing a scenario similar to 1996 in having a weak candidate (assuming they find one) facing a president whose fortunes are rising along with the economy.

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