Heller screwed up big-time when he succumbed to pressure to vote in favor of Trumpcare 2.0. He is feeling the heat, as he should. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to stop him from signing on to cosponsor Bill Cassidy and Lindsey Graham’s Trumpcare 3.0 bill.

Even before his Trumpcare 2.0 vote, polls had Heller losing to a generic Democrat, 39 percent to 46 percent. Nevada also went for Clinton during the 2016 election, enhancing the view that Heller is vulnerable. In the wake of Trumpcare 2.0, he is more vulnerable still.

Rosen has stepped up on the Democratic side to challenge him. Please check out her site and think about what you can do to help her. Note also that Rosen is supported by our friends at 314 Action, the organization that boosts candidates who have STEM backgrounds. She worked as a computer programmer and a software developer.

Note: Sarah Jane, lead editor on OTYCD, has since chosen Rosen for her Core Four.

See the full list of sitting senators who are up for re-election in 2020.

2018 was a tough year for Democratic sitting Senators. Many more Democrats than Republicans were up for re-election. While we lost two, Bill Nelson of Florida and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, we managed to pick up two seats–Jacky Rosen defeated Dean Heller in Nevada, and Kyrsten Sinema won the open seat in Arizona.

Things could have been a lot worse, and would have been a lot worse in the absence of voters highly motivated by the unusually terrible performance of the Trump administration. If a more normal and routine Republican had been president in 2018, the Democrats might have suffered more losses.

The 2020 story is different. Many more Republicans are defending than are Democrats.

This post is a basic post that simply lists who’s due to run in 2020. It does NOT include notes about who’s vulnerable, etc. That material will appear in a later update.

Right now, we want to fill you in on what’s known as U.S. Senate, Class II, so you can make early choices for your 2020 Core Four. If you can start donating to the sitting Democrats now, please do. If you notice a Republican up in your state in 2020, consider earmarking money for that person’s eventual Democratic challenger.

The following Democrats are up for re-election in 2020:

Cory Booker of New Jersey

Christopher Coons of Delaware

Richard “Dick” Durbin of Illinois

Doug Jones of Alabama

Ed Markey of Massachusetts

Jeff Merkley of Oregon

Gary Peters of Michigan

Jack Reed of Rhode Island

Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire

Tina Smith of Minnesota

Tom Udall of New Mexico

Mark Warner of Virginia

The following Republicans are up for re-election in 2020:

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia

Bill Cassidy of Louisiana

Susan Collins of Maine

John Cornyn of Texas

Tom Cotton of Arkansas

Steve Daines of Montana

Michael Enzi of Wyoming

Joni Ernst of Iowa

Cory Gardner of Colorado

Lindsey Graham of South Carolina

Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi

James Inhofe of Oklahoma

Mitch McConnell of Kentucky

David Perdue of Georgia

James Risch of Idaho

Pat Roberts of Kansas

Mike Rounds of South Dakota

Ben Sasse of Nebraska

Dan Sullivan of Arkansas

Thom Tillis of North Carolina

As of now, only Arkansas has both its Senators due to run in 2020.

And! There is a Road to 2020 effort, but there are caveats. From what we can tell, it’s only got a Twitter handle at the moment, and it’s unclear if Celeste Pewter is involved (she was a significant part of the Road to 2018).

Then get to work. Choose two Democrats per chamber, one incumbent and one challenger for each. Work to make sure Democrats take the House of Representatives and do what you can to help Democrats win control of the Senate (this is a longer shot but it’s not impossible).

The Senate is the tougher get. The map favors Republicans. If the Democrats hold all their Senate seats and gain two, they’ll win control.

The Road to 2018 showcases incumbent Senate Democrats (and one Independent, Angus King of Maine) who are perceived as vulnerable.

Site is here: https://www.roadto2018.com

The Road to 2018 is one of Celeste Pewter’s projects. She encourages you to adopt a Senator by supporting him or her however you can–donating, phone-banking, canvassing, spreading the word.

The most endangered among those shown on the page include Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, who bravely came out against Kavanaugh the day before the cloture vote; Bill Nelson of Florida, who is in a tough battle with Republican Governor Rick Scott for the seat; and Claire McCaskill of Missouri.

Several strong Democratic challengers are aiming to push Republican Senate incumbents out of their seats. They include:

Once you settle on a few candidates to boost, go to ActBlue and donate, then visit their websites and see what other sorts of help they need.

Here are links to several past OTYCD stories on Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives. Most are challengers. This is far from a comprehensive list, and probably doesn’t include everyone we’ve written about who advanced to the general; this is just to give you ideas.

Same again here as with the Senators. Once you’ve made your picks, donate through ActBlue and contact their campaigns to see how you can help.

If you’re a regular OTYCD reader, it’s unlikely that Postcards to Voters is new to you. But! Tony the Democrat says that they’d need to recruit a few thousand more writers before they could consider assisting Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota.

This is not to imply Tony has a Heitkamp campaign lined up, or even under discussion; he simply said the postcarder army would have to add many more recruits before they could give her the help she’d need to get out the vote across the entire state.

So! How about recruiting new writers to the Postcards to Voters cause? Here’s the FAQ page for Postcards to Voters. Get fluent in these answers, and start convincing others to sign on.

This OTYCD post originally appeared in January 2018, but with the mid-terms approaching and the stakes rising, we are reposting past posts that discuss key things you can do to push back against Trump.

* Choose your Core Four–two Democratic senators and two Democratic house reps, an incumbent and a challenger for each chamber–to support to in 2018.

From late 2016 until now, we’ve been going to bat for Democratic candidates in individual special elections. Usually, we’ve supported one Democrat at a time.

2018 will test our collective resolve as never before.

Literally hundreds of races–34 senators, and all 435 House reps–are taking place, and all of them will end on November 6, 2018.

If the Democrats are to win control of the House of Representatives (tough, because of gerrymandering, but doable) and the Senate (tougher, but thinkable now that Alabama Democrat Doug Jones won his special election Senate race in December 2017), we’ll all need to concentrate on, and help, more than one Congressional race at the same time.

We at OTYCD suggest that you prepare for what’s coming by choosing your “Core Four”–four Democratic candidates who will receive the bulk of your efforts.

Two Democrats for the House of Representatives.

Two Democrats for the Senate.

One incumbent and one challenger for each chamber of Congress.

How to Pick Your Core Four

There’s no right way or wrong way to choose your Core Four, but we suggest starting in your own backyard, with the members of Congress who represent your state.

If you don’t know who your members of Congress are, go to this website and plug your street address into the search engine:

whoaremyrepresentatives.org

…then research the three names–one House rep and two Senators–that come up.

Do you have a good Democratic House Rep? Then embrace him or her.

Do you have a lousy House Rep, or is your district’s seat being vacated? Look up the Democratic challengers for the seat and choose one. Look to Ballotpedia.org for help with finding challengers in your federal district.

One-third of all senators will be up for re-election in 2018. It’s possible that at least one of your senators (and possibly both) is due to run (but scroll down for a list of states where neither senator has to run).

Is one or both of your senators up for re-election? Are they good Dems? If so, embrace them and get behind them.

Is your senator who’s running for re-election a lousy senator? Learn about the Democratic challengers for the seat, and be ready to help a challenger however you can. As always, Ballotpedia.org is your friend here.

Your help can take the form of time, money, word of mouth, or some combination of the three. But you need to choose your four Democrats, and you need to think seriously about how you will juggle the needs of all four.

You’ll need to sit down and plot this out as you might plot a semester’s course schedule in college. The demands of the four candidates will overlap and they’ll all come due at the same time–in the weeks and days leading up to November 6, 2018. You’ll also have to factor in appointments and life events of your own, too, of course.

Choosing your Core Four: A Test Case

Let’s say you live in New Hampshire.

Your House Rep is up for re-election because they all are. Is yours a good Democrat? Then you have your House incumbent settled.

If your House Rep is not a good Democrat, or is a lousy Republican, or is retiring, check Ballotpedia and see who’s challenging for the seat.

Let’s assume for the sake of this example that your House Rep is a good Dem. There’s one of your four settled.

Now look for a challenger who’s aiming to take a terrible House Republican out.

**How about Andrew Janz? He hopes to push House Rep Devin Nunes out of his perch in California’s 22nd District. A worthy choice. Allocate time and money to him. You’ve chosen your two House Dems, one incumbent and one challenger.

Now turn to the senators. It so happens that neither of the incumbent senators from New Hampshire are up for re-election in 2018. You are free to devote your resources elsewhere.

Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is running for her second term in 2018. How about helping to defend her? There’s your third choice made.

Now look for a candidate who hopes to push out a terrible sitting Republican Senator. Hey, how about Beto O’Rourke? He hopes to send Ted Cruz of Texas packing. Hard to find a nobler cause than that.

Of course, you can choose more than four Congressional candidates to back. But the idea here is to help you focus.

If you can take on more than four, do it. But four is just enough, in our opinion–more than one, but still a number small enough to count on one hand.

You can certainly look to orgs such as Swing Left, the Road to 2018, Emily’s List, and the like to help you make your choices. The main thing is nowrightnow is the time to think seriously about those choices.

Also, if you live in one of the states listed below, neither of your Senators is up for re-election, and you can devote your resources to incumbents and candidates in other states:

Alabama

Alaska

Arkansas

Colorado

Georgia

Idaho

Illinois

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

New Hampshire

North Carolina

Oklahoma

Oregon

South Carolina

South Dakota

* Our ‘Core Four’ only covers federal Congress races. You might have other important races happening at the state and local level–for governor, attorney general, mayor, what have you. Please don’t neglect those races.

**The original suggestion we had here was Randy Bryce, aka Ironstache, a Democrat who is running in Wisconsin’s 1st District. In mid-April 2018, his lousy Republican opponent, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, announced he would not run again. We cheered for Ironstache, and then we realized we should swap in a different example of an incumbent House Rep who needs to GO. It’s a good problem to have. Here’s hoping we face it a few more times before November 6.

On May 30, 2018, Buzzfeed published a piece on how Trump might approach the 2018 midterm elections.

It looks like he’s shying away from House of Representatives races and targeting sitting, vulnerable Democratic senators who are up for re-election in Trump-friendly states. From the article:

‘A source close to Trump involved in midterm planning said it’s clear Republicans are running very different campaigns in close House races versus Senate races, and Trump will be used accordingly. “It’s a base election in the Senate and a swing in the House,” the source said.’

Also from the article:

‘Earlier this month, Trump followed a similar outline of what is shaping up to be his 2018 stump speech during his rally in Indiana, where he called Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly “sleeping Joe” and a “swamp person.” “You have to work every day between now and November to elect more Republicans so that we can continue to make America great again,” he told his supporters there, while praising Donnelly’s challenger, Mike Braun, as a “winner.”

And at an anti-abortion event last week, Trump spelled out the need for more Republicans in Congress in a way that would connect with the crowd. “So the story is, ’18 midterms — we need Republicans, and that will happen,” he said, going on to talk about failed GOP attempts to pass a 20-week abortion ban and the Democratic senators who have voted against it. “The United States is one of only seven countries in the world to allow elective abortions after 20 weeks, when unborn babies can truly feel the pain. Yet Democratic senators like Jon Tester, Heidi Heitkamp, Claire McCaskill, Debbie Stabenow all voted against the 20-week bill and in favor of late-term abortion.’

If you’ve been following Celeste on Twitter–and you are, aren’t you? She’s at @Celeste_Pewter–you’ve seen her tweets about The Road to 2018 and about Democratic senators you can support.

To be dead clear here–flipping the Senate blue in 2018 will be tough, tougher than flipping the House. Much of this is down to math. About a dozen Democratic incumbents are vulnerable, as opposed to eight Republican incumbents.

In order to flip the Senate, the Democrats need to hold all their seats and gain two. (The two Independents in the Senate, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, tend to caucus with the Democrats. King is up for re-election in 2018.)

Flipping the Senate will not insure that Trump can be successfully impeached. A minimum of 67 senators would have to vote in favor, and given the prevailing tribalism, we couldn’t count on Republican senators to do the right thing.

This is not about impeachment. This is about hampering Trump’s ability to push his noxious agenda.

If the Senate goes Democratic, Trump would find it a lot harder to push through lousy and unqualified nominees across the board, judicial and otherwise.

He’d also have to change his strategy if he wants to get any legislation passed.

Fighting for these senators is worth doing.

So! Question. Are you using the Core Four strategy yet? If not, learn about it here:

Support Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat who will challenge Republican Ted Cruz for his Texas senate seat in 2018.

Texas Democrats have long pined to turn the state blue. There’s no question that Republican Senator Ted Cruz is vulnerable. His poll numbers are low and his fellow senators don’t like him. In his recent book, Giant of the Senate, Al Franken likens Cruz to the ‘Dwight Schrute of the Senate.’ For those who didn’t watch the American version of The Office, that means Cruz is goddamn insufferable as a co-worker.

O’Rourke won his March 2018 primary with no trouble, but he’ll have a tougher road from here on in. Cruz won his Senate seat in 2012 with more than 56 percent of the vote (the Democratic candidate got a bit more than 40 percent). He’s hated, but he has incumbency in his favor. And Texas is still more red than purple. But every legislative seat deserves a Democratic challenger, and O’Rourke has accepted.

O’Rourke is a fourth-generation Texan who speaks fluent Spanish. He believes that health care is a right, not a privilege. He supports public schools and caring for veterans. He wants to end big-money donations and gerrymandering. He prefers term limits. He wants to give immigrants a clear path to earning American citizenship.

Bookmark Tracking Congress in the Age of Trump, a tool created by fivethirtyeight.com that shows you how often your senators and house reps vote with the president.

You will want to refer to this tool periodically, and more and more as we approach the 2018 elections.

The most useful aspects, in our estimation, are the Trump Score columns on the Senate and the House pages. The Trump Score shows you how often, percentage-wise, your senators and your house rep casts a vote that matches Trump’s position.