Survivor Game Changers Week 7 Predictions

Time to predict what fresh hell awaits us in the next two episodes of Survivor: Game Changers.

Back to predicting for real. Back to keeping score.

Boot Predictions

Andy: At the merge, the original Mana tribe will be outnumbered 9-4. Given that EVERY. SINGLE. POST-SWAP VOTE this season has been along original tribal lines, I don’t see a reason for that to change with the first post-merge vote. So then it becomes a matter of picking which of those four would most likely be targeted: Hali is out, as she’s spent the most time with original Nukus and she’s not particularly threatening right now. Troy is out because we’ve already seen two scenes of him bonding with original Nukus (Sarah and Brad), although it would be hilarious to see him go home with an idol in his pants (that is, if it IS an idol and he’s not just happy to see us). That leaves Michaela and Aubry, and honestly, both are as likely as the other and present similar threat levels. But we saw Aubry make some inroads that she could potentially use in the post-merge scramble. We have not seen the same from Michaela.

Now I’m thinking that Aubry should be next with everyone cluing in to the threat of the Kaoh Rong three. But I said Ozzy on the podcast, so I’ll stick with that. Because his story every other episode so far has been “Ozzy is a threat, we should maybe take him out”. Eventually, the right person will say that to the right group of people. Why not now?

John: My predictions are based entirely around the idea that this season will do its best to get rid of the most familiar names. Cirie and Ozzy are the two biggest names left, and despite Cirie’s epic challenge run to get here (she was the only one to stay immune for the entire pre-merge portion of the game!) I don’t know if she’s likely to win individual immunity. Ozzy, on the other hand, might. Thus, Cirie goes home first.

The second immunity challenge will probably be something like “hold this massive pole for as long as you can”, and since Troy has an unfair advantage- years of experience doing exactly that- he’ll win immunity. Thus, Ozzy will be vulnerable. Unable to find an immunity idol, he’ll go home.

Emma: In my pre-season post about Cirie, I said the most likely scenario was that she’d be the merge boot. This is also a season where everything is terrible, and it all hurts, so I have no choice than to stick with that prediction: an underedited Cirie who is voted out as soon as she should get to shine. She’s never gone to tribal council, so none of her potential alliances have actually been established in the one place where trust is really shown. Finally given the opportunity to play, she may go too hard and everyone decides they’re better off without her. They are wrong.

It’s been reported that this is the first season where two black women made the merge. But again, bad things happen this season. The only good thing was when Caleb got voted out. So naturally, after losing Cirie, we will also lose Michaela, who doesn’t seem to have any true allies and gets on a lot of people’s nerves. At least we can expect some sweet jury faces.

Mark: Merge time! With all the talk of Ozzy being a threat lately, I think the merge is the perfect time to take him out. “But what if he wins?” you ask. With the people who are left, do you really think the challenge department steers hard into the kinds of challenges he excels at? Nope. Later, Ozzy. (Editor’s note: Yes? Like, especially with this cast… wouldn’t they want to preserve some of the remaining star power? Also: aren’t the “kinds of challenges” Ozzy excels at called “challenges”?)

After that, I have no clue. Maybe Hali tries to be a double agent between original Mana and original Nuku and Brad takes her out. He could never trust her, and now he has two lackeys in Aubry and Cirie. Buh bye, blue eyes.

Matt: Merge time and if there is one theme this season: it is that the show must slay our faves. But there is another subplot at work here! For the first time ever (yes ever) two African-American women made the merge. And if I know one thing about Survivor, I know that that cannot be allowed. So Michaela goes first, because the old tribal lines will hold for one more vote and she seems to be the person who has the fewest connections on the other side. Also she is a bit of a challenge threat. And then to add insult to injury Cirie goes home second. Why? Because everyone is terrified of Cirie and waiting to oust her. (Note: I could also see Ozzy going at either vote here as no one wants to see him win out, and I do think he is not long for the game, but look when I have the chance to predict a logical terrible outcome, I just have to do it).

Andy

John

Emma

Mark

Matt

Readers

First or Second Boot

Aubry

Ciera

Ciera

Ciera

Ciera

Ciera

Third Out

JT

Debbie

Cirie

JT

Cirie

JT

Fourth Out

JT

Sandra

Sandra

Sandra

Varner

JT

Fifth Out

JT

Sandra

JT

JT

JT

JT

Sixth Out

Debbie

Debbie

Sarah

Aubry

Ozzy

Debbie

Seventh Out

Varner

Tai

Varner

Ozzy

Eighth Boot

Michaela

Cirie

Cirie

Ozzy

Michaela

Ninth Boot

Ozzy

Ozzy

Michaela

Hali

Cirie

Score

Preseason Winner Pick

Malcolm

Tony

Malcolm

Andrea

Andrea

Malcolm

*Reminder: Scores from the seventh episode do not count due to spoilers.

Time to make your picks. And feel free to track how your personal picks do throughout the year. I won’t make mention of it or anything, but you can still feel good about it.

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

125 thoughts on “Survivor Game Changers Week 7 Predictions”

I went with Michaela and Debbie as my picks. I think Michaela is in the most danger out of everyone because of the lack of connections she has with the remaining contestants. With Debbie, I think her quest to oust Brad will backfire with hilarious results.

Cirie and Ozzy are the biggest names left in a season where the biggest names have been targeted. I think they both have allies that want to protect them for now but they are in the most danger if Michaela wins immunity.

Aubry Watch: Big week for my Survivor love. It will be interesting to see if she will continue to form bonds with the dominant group. I think she has a solid social game and could climb into a nice spot. Hopefully she also gets more camera time.

I’m going on the theory that the one scene of Brad’s tribe last week showed the 5 person alliance of Brad, Sierra, Aubry, Cirie, and Troy being formed meant something. So I’m basing my picks off that. I think they do stick to old tribal lines for the first vote and take out Hali or Michaela, and I’m picking Hali because they see her as a bigger threat than Michaela. Then its Ozzy blindside time, and Cirie organizes another masterful Ozzy vote off as the conclusion to the Cirie-Ozzy story. If Ozzy wins immunity, I still think they make a move so let’s say Sarah (I know, that’s cheating)

I decided to just shoot the moon and go for the most entertaining, plausible prediction I could think of for the first boot.

The thing I most want to see happen is SDT or Troy choose not to use their advantage/idol and be sent home, but I doubt that will happen. Instead, I will say that Debbie tries to oust Brad, but it completely blows up in her face and she is hilariously sent packing. Maybe Troy and/or SDT waste their idol/advantage for good measure.

For the second vote, keeping with the theme of the season of voting out those we like and the history of double boots removing unseen players, I say they target Andrea.

Since I once again have no idea who is going home, I’m just trying to come up with some bizarre scanarios.

During the first episode, people will soon realize that “Hey, Troy is a jackass!”. So Sarah will do her first criminal move this season, and as Debbie would say “Crush Troyzan’s heart!” and blindside Troy with an idol in his pocket. Nukus will stick together for this vote.

At the second episode, we will see the rise of a magnificent Black Widows Brigade 2.0. which will consist of Andrea, Aubry, Michaela, Cirie, Hali, Sarah, Sierra and Debbie and are gonna get rid of all the boys. BUT fun hating Fan Favourite Sierra Dawn-Thomas will immediatly turn away from them and join the others. She will say that she’s “a new sheriff in town” and laugh how she will screw the girls (phrasing), but silly little Sierra is laughing when Hali “Cobra” Ford is right beside her ala Drew/Kelley style. The girls decide to vote her out right of the gate, and Tai cause of that will waste two of his idols to say other boys. At the end of the episode Sierra will give a Legacy Advantage to Cirie, cause in her own words “Cirie is awesome”.

I’m going with Ozzy and Brad. Ozzy, because he is the obvious choice to get rid of, and then Brad, as the super-shocking, throwback-to-Gretchen-style boot. Everyone in his alliance will tear up, Tai will call Debbie an inhumane monster.

Also, does it bug anyone else that 90% of the people on Survivor seem to have no idea how to properly dive into water?

In Micronesia, they kept playing the same shot of Chet preparing for a dive, but then he doesn’t commit and just slams into the water with his hands out in dive formation. Physical humor at it’s finest.

I can see you pain. If I were British I wouldn’t have a clue who to vote for. Labour is a mess. Tory’s are obviously out. I don’t think the Lib Dems could win, but are probably who I would vote for. If I were Scottish I would even be tempted by SNP. I hope her callousness costs her but I don’t see who is in a position to take advantage of it

I don’t know enough about the British Greens to say. But I feel they share the Lib Dem problem in the big picture, in that they are’t a viable winner. A strategic progressive alliance would seemingly hinge on Labour and Corbyn does not seem like the type to share

The lib Dems are scum who abandoned all their principles to prop up the Tories and were in government 2 years ago!
The SNP are ruling over a crumbling education system and the biggest defecit of any country in Europe. They cannot govern.
Labour suck but I’m a member, I’ll hold my nose and vote for them because fuck even the idiot man in charge is better for the country than another 5 years of Tories.

Right. The coalition thing. I had kind of forgotten about that. I imagine being a Labour member in this election is a lot like being a Liberal in the 2011 election in Canada, holding our noses and voting for Ignatieff. It didn’t end well, but I’m not sure what other choice you have

Oh piss of John, when you had time you elected Donald Trump. Imagine having to select every single Congressman and woman and Senators in under 2 weeks so you can actually campaign for 6 weeks.
Your election process is too long but a General Election usually takes 18 months to plan, Prospective Parliamentary Candidates (in seats parties don’t hold) are chosen usually a year in advance to give them time to campaign locally before the national elections begin. Parliament only dissolves 25 working days before polling day.

I definitely think Debbie is going to forgive Brad (or at least pretend to) and rejoin his alliance for the time being. I think Debbie will have a confessional about having to be a team player for now because that’s what Sensei Cochran told her to do. I think a Debbie/Sierra/Brad/Tai/Sarah/Hali alliance will control the game early post merge. Troyzan will probably be in on it all so he feels included. This is sort of how it seems to be right now, so not exactly a wild prediction.

I went with Ozzy and Aubry. I really hope Aubry survives the double episode but I think she’s going to get voted out because even though Brad might want to keep her around, the rest of his alliance will see her as an immediate threat. As Andy wrote, they’ll probably use the excuse that they have to get rid of her because she’s another Kaoh Ronger – to ensure she never gets the chance to team up with Debbie and Tai.

Agree with Kemper Boyd – tough to contemplate these grim scenarios on the same day that we face the probability of Tory majority until 2022.

Even though I think she might actually win this bloody thing, there’s a chance that Sarah is excited to be President of Swing Island again and finds herself the shocking merge boot at another explosive tribal where advantages and idols flow, to no actual effect. Followed by Andrea’s exit, somehow.

There is definitely a part of me that is questioning if I can watch this season after last week. The silver lining I’m clinging to is that whatever happens, Michaela has made the jury and she is ready to go deep or knock Eliza off that gif throne.

Not sure if he’ll be first or second, but Ozzy is always an obvious merge boot. As much as I’d hate it, because she’s on my team, but wouldn’t mind because she’s not that interesting, maybe Sarah. We’ve been seeing a bit of her.

I’d be more verbose, but I have my interview today, and I don’t want to get busted posting on here. Again. 😛

I like to believe that they are big fans of the site and want everyone to have access and not the more likely option of never hearing of the site and after review thinking it’s a waste of time to block.

The important thing to note is that Michaela might be close only to Hali and Troy, and both would probably sell her up the river to get in closer with their new alliances. Michaela is safe if she can win immunity, but it’s a 50/50 chance that it’s a balance challenge, and balance isn’t Michaela’s strongest asset. Even if it’s not a balance challenge, it could be Get A Grip (the Ozzy Lusth specialty) or When It Rains. Michaela is a Survivor challenge fullback, displaying bursts of speed and power, but that doesn’t help her in typical merge challenges.

The second vote is where things get interesting. If everyone can agree that Michaela is going home, the first merged tribal will be pretty uneventful. The Legacy Advantage will now be at F6, but there are still three idols and a double vote. Even though he reminded everyone of his challenge strength, Ozzy remains safe because both power players (Brad and Zeke) are going to be courting his vote. At the least, Team Culpepper is going to be able to rope in Aubry and Hali, and Debbie plays her double vote, putting at least seven votes on the player the opponent least expects.

Perhaps over-optimistically, I think the last tribal was enough to earn a Zeke-Tai and probably Zeke-Debbie dotted line. There’s SOMETHING there…though when push comes to shove, I too am convinced they side with Brad. But I do think they’ll try to push the target away from Zeke in the short term.

Agreed, this visualization is on point. It’s amazing to see how many lines lead to Brad, and also interesting to think that the other most connected people are Tai, Zeke, Ozzy, and Sarah? lol

Also, if you consider that there are probably some relationships we aren’t seeing, the relationships Production is shows almost all benefit Brad. A pretty strong argument for his win, but at the very least, it means that Brad will be a center point for whatever happens in the next few episodes. Hell, that could even make him a ‘swing’ vote between the two final pre-merge tribes, but maybe he manages to navigate the dreaded swing vote curse properly.

I think it bad for Brad. All these people are connected to him means he will at least have to backstab three of them. And the people he aligned with are know by past experience are not the most forgiving. Add that with the Debbie element and I think that Brad will have to careful with his jury management because he could easily become a goat.

PSA: for those of you who dont normally listen to Dom and Colin, you really should this week. They brought in a transgender listener and most of the episode is them interviewing him on his perspective on the episode and just the experience of transitioning in general. Worth your time.

This week’s podcasts, in order of how they handled this episode’s events:

1. Dom and Colin (yes they lucked into it, but they were the ones to land a transgender guest)
2. RHAP (high degree of difficulty given that they record immediately after the episode airs)
3. PRP (the aforementioned degree of difficulty is the only real differentiating factor)
4. The Tribe (had surprisingly little new to add given that they bring the non-straight/cis/male perspective)
5. Snakes Rats and Goats (they basically said up front they had little to add to the podcasts that were already out and moved on; I suppose that’s better than just droning on out of a sense of obligation, and they were smart enough to not do the newbie guest schtick for a week)

Note 1: Even #5 gets no lower than a B.
Note 2: Damn, I listen to five Survivor podcasts. That’s too many.

Since the rest of the season is likely a shitshow, at this point, the only thing I am rooting for a loved one’s visit where noted Neat Lady Monica Culpepper comes in and talks strategy with Brad, basically revealing how all of the changes he’s made this season are due to Monica telling him what to do before he went back on the show.

That would be nice. Even better would be if the loved one’s visit was a catalyst for Aubry and Cirie to flip on Brad, join up with Andrea and Zeke, oust Brad and coast to final four. I still have my dreams, which can never be taken away.

I don’t think it’s likely, but I’m going to be rooting HARD against Brad this week. The versions of this season where Brad has been built up to be a shock merge boot are the best remaining versions of this season.

But my votes are for Ozzy and Aubry. Because we can’t have nice things.

I was thinking about the whole OWBC thing yesterday when it hit me that at this point last season we were arguing about whether Ken or David had a/the winner’s edit (and I think Edgic was sold on Michelle possibly?). So there is hope

And maybe this is more like SJDS, where Josh and Jeremy got glowing edits before being booted just after the merge. But there’s been an absurd amount of attention to/praise for Brad so far this season, particularly when he has had so little to do with the stories so far.

Well, yeah. The PRP crew wouldn’t predict a Savage win if he were on a one-contestant season. But wasn’t he getting a good edit up to the merge, and in kind of a “production is really selling us” way? I’m truly asking, since my memory of individual players’ performances is pretty bad unless they make it relatively close to the end or do something spectacular to get booted.

Savage looked really bad in the edit, but it was thought that Savage might win based on this edit because that’s just how Savage is. So when Savage was getting on his moral high ground about Fishbach, perhaps the show bought into it and was trying to portray Savage as the hero he thinks he is? But it did not. Brad, on the other hand, genuinely comes off well in the edit.

Editors as we all know, don’t put any scene without reason (to our sadness). The problem is, that we don’t see why they put some scenes UNTIL the very end of a season (the reason I think Edgicers picked up early on on Michele’s winner edit is cause when they picked up on a single clue of that, then it led them to bunch of others).

I’m trying to read the edit, since, if everything is terrible this season, I might as well make it worse for myself.

Cirie does not play quietly, which leads me to believe that her lack of screentime means that, once she’s vulnerable (i.e. this week), she’s going home. It’s an easy merge boot, and after taking out Sandra, no one will have any reservations about booting another strong woman whom no one would beat.

Not that much of Tavua (save for Troy, bleh) got much of an edit, but for as big of a star as Ozzy is, we didn’t see him much until last week. Add that to the fact that it just makes sense to get rid of Ozzy, especially for an alpha like Brad, and he’s gone next.

After Ozzy has to be Aubry or Zeke, if only because there’s no way that this season will be satisfying for two consecutive boots. I hate this.

I have absolutely no idea who is going next. In fact, I shouldn’t have even voted because I was basically so clueless that I just went along with what seemed to be the PRP staff consensus. I’m such a follower XD

But seriously, what I really think will happen is the season will pretty much completely reboot and we may see entirely new story lines emerging. Because I think he’s probably got the clearest path to the win (based on edit, etc.) I would guess that Brad’s story will be a through-line but otherwise I think everything else will get shuffled around. I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone went home this week – the editors might just have to go from 0 to 60 on someone’s story to get them there.

I am going to say that Michaela is in Shirin spot right now, while not aligned with any majority she considered the least dangerous of this large group. I am also thinking that once Ozzy loses immunity for the first time he is gone with this group of people. So with that said I think the two boot tomorrow are Zeke and Ozzy.

I guess it is time for the epic conclusion to the Micronesia rewatch. Yes, we (@purpletally:disqus and I) have completed every episode of Micronesia.
Discussion Questions:
1) Of course we ask this: Does Cirie win if she gets to FTC?
2) Between Parvati and Amanda, who has the worse FTC performance?
3) Between China and Micronesia, which is the worse Amanda FTC performance?
4) Was the FIC designed for Cirie?
5) Is there a chance that Parvati votes out Amanda if she win that FIC?
6)Which iteration of Parvati do you like best?
7) Which iteration of Amanda do you like best?
8) Who is the MVP of Micronesia?

1) I think so, but it’s not a given. I actually think Amanda could’ve won in such a scenario.
2) Amanda
3) Here was probably worse. China was more damaging.
4) Not necessarily designed FOR. But chosen as an equalizer, maybe.
5) I don’t think so.
6) HvV, but she was still very good here. HvV is the Micronesia Parv who knows what she is good at in Survivor the whole way.
7) China
8) That challenge that took out Penner, Chet, and Ami.

1. PossIble but I don’t think she does.
2. Amanda
3. I will give the slight edge to Micronesia being worse
4. No but she definitely had a good shot.
5. Zero
6. HvV is the peak. Micronesia is great and I believe Cook Islands Parv is underrated.
7. Micronesia after the Ozzy vote.
8. BWB 4 life.

EDIT: This was fun, I liked the format and I look forward to joining whatever season you and Purple Tally do next.

I’d definitely be down. Have a regular schedule was very helpful in both giving the episodes room to breath without a massive binge, but also moving through it at a regular pace. Thanks again for organizing!

1) I want to say yes. But it is so dependent on so many factors: is she taken with or does she win FIC?; if it’s her and Parvati, are Ozzy and James bitter enough to vote for her over Parvati?; Can she pull Natalie and Alexis cause she didn’t vote against them when Amanda uses her idol? It’s just a crap shoot in terms of who wants to vote for who, cause motivations for the jury are so wild and different. But i would say, Cirie would have blown both of them away in terms of FTC performance, and given that everyone isn’t confidently against her, i’d guess she could have pulled it off.
2) I kinda hate that Parvati keeps saying “is that good enough?” “do you like that answer” and if it were Cirie with her, that would not have slid. Someone should have pointed out that she was just trying to say what they wanted to hear, particularly after she said she would give the honest truth. But, besides that, Amanda’s was worst. So many of her answers all sounded the same, and without the substance, she could talk the talk but didn’t have much evidence.
5) I can’t imagine she would. Personally, I think Amanda had the hardest route to the win, and while she was choosing between two people likely to beat her, Parvati would have identified Cirie as the bigger threat. Particularly because, Parvati could preach trustworthiness and friendship while also using their closeness to deflect things from sticking to her alone. The only question here would be if she thought she could get Ozzy and James’ votes against Cirie, but that isn’t a bet I would have taken.
6) Thus far, i’ve only seen this and Cook Islands, and i’ll take this any day. Here, she brought together strategy with being the flirt and managed to do things, even if doing so with the ‘cool kid’ players. In Cook Islands, her strategy seemed spotty and spent almost all her time with entitled white kids Candice and Adam, laying about waiting for food and throwing fits when they weren’t served. If that had been her only season, i’m pretty sure i’d dislike Parvati, so it was nice to see another season. Not saying i’m a big Parvati fan, but I enjoyed watching her game here by miles.
8) Urm, like, Cirie? Cause Cirie? I give her credit for a majority of the best moves, and she was at least involved in all of them. If Panama brought us an amazing personality with amazing strategy, Micronesia proved it was no fluke. She plays an amazing ‘under-the-radar’ game, allowing others to be the faces of some of her huge moves, and I believe had she gotten the chance to plead her case, she would have won.

Again without reading others:
1. Absolutely
2. Amanda, for sure.
3. Sadly, China is way worse. It may be the worst ever.
4. Since I know they design all the challenges before the cast gets there, even with returning players, I say nope.
5. No way Parvati takes Cirie; she knows what a sweet talker she is.
6. Hrm, do mean by season? She’s at her best in Micronesia and quite impressive.
7. It was amazing that she played two seasons back to back and made it to the finals in each. Still, she was better in China.
8. Cirie is the MVP even though, my god, she should have won that FIC, but she was seriously screwed by the change to a final 2.

Nope, I think the reason it was changed to 2 was because they already had the FIC planned and needed the episodes for a full season. That said, what the hell do I know? It never occurred to me there had been a change until you said something.

Edit: Needed the extra episode because of all the people who left early, but particularly, James’ exit.

So, I was thinking through my answer to 1. and I tried to play out the scenarios, and I actually think the best situation for Amanda would have been a final 3 FTC. If you consider, that leaves us with 7 jury members, and a question of who may have chosen Cirie if given the chance over who they did choose. I don’t think Ozzy or James switch, so Amanda goes in with 2. I think Eliza would go with Cirie, because she blames Cirie least. This brings up some interesting questions:
-Does Erik change to Cirie over Amanda?
I’m not confident. Erik said he was mad at Amanda for betraying him, but then voted for her, so it came down to relationships. I think he likes Cirie, but more than Amanda? The betrayal was enough to make him consider Parvati, but not actually vote for her, so I’m not confident he switches
-Can Cirie sway Natalie & Alexis away from Parvati?
They both seemed, from my POV, to be really schmitten with Parvati. I’m not confident that their interest in being besties (or more) with Parvati can be beaten by the fact that Cirie didn’t try to vote them out, and Parvati did. And while Cirie can point out she voted with them, Amanda can bring up the conversation where Cirie said she didn’t want to, but was only doing it because she had no other choice. So, i’m not really confident on where they will land. I could see Cirie getting Alexis, but Parvati still getting Natalie.
-Urm, like, Jason?
I have no idea what his reasons for voting Parvati are. If it’s that he thinks she played best, then he could keep it Parvati, or he could switch to Cirie based on the direction of the FTC. If it’s because he likes Parvati better, then maybe Cirie is doomed as the only non-20 something hot white girl.

So, let’s say James, Ozzy, Erik stay Amanda, Cirie gets Alexis and Eliza, and Parvati gets Jason and Natalie. 3-2-2. Even if Cirie can’t get Alexis, I don’t think she goes Amanda, and then we a 3-2-2 ties, which i’d guess maybe they re-vote on without Cirie, then we are back to the 5-3 final score. A lot of random and wild speculation, but interesting to think that Amanda, while crying about the final 2, really had it right, a final 3 may have been her best shot.

*I should also note, a lot of this is assuming the jury has a healthy dose of bitterness, because if anyone thinks logically and chooses who they think truly deserves the win, it’s more of a toss up…

Interesting, I’m not surprised by Erik, and it makes sense the jury would have talked about this, but I hadn’t researched too much of their post-interviews. If it truly comes down to Alexis, then Cirie has the best argument for the win, but I could still see Parv getting it.

I still hold that this is likely the best shot Amanda has though, even though its a hypothetical she couldn’t control. We know she doesn’t win vs. Parvati, and I don’t get the feeling she wins against Cirie. In Amanda vs. Cirie, Amanda still keeps Ozzy and James. Then Cirie definitely gets Erik, Eliza, and Alexis after the idol out. I think it would be a toss up for Natalie and Jason, but an easier path to the win for Cirie.

Cirie vs. Parvati may have had the biggest potential for blowout, largely because Amanda’s two votes were partially anti-Parvati. I think Cirie picks up Ozzy and James, she keeps Eliza and Erik, and she has a strong argument for Alexis. Parvati probably gets Natalie, but I don’t feel like even Jason would be 100%, so she could loose it 6-1.

ANYWAYS, i think this all points to Andy’s comment of what a team effort this season is. Because Parvati, Amanda, and Cirie balance their plays and work together so well, there isn’t really a player who would crush the others. I agree Cirie probably would’ve won in FTC, and is my pick for player of the season, but things are all in all pretty balanced. Particularly if it had been a 3-2-2 split…

1) Think so. It probably would have been pretty close though. Like a 3-2-2 win for her.
2) Amanda
3) China.. trying to play the sad kooky eyed girl in front of that jury that was mostly ready to reward big game play was such a horrible read.
4) Can’t say
5) No chance
6) HVV 100%. Regardless of her losing, that is one of the best survivor performances ever. She was a target from day 1.
7) China.. was rooting her to win that season.
8) Black widow alliance!!!

1) Probably? There are enough votes up for grabs that I’m not sure, and after the fact claims aren’t canon. I give Cirie the edge in part because Cirie is one of very few Survivor players I think could actually talk people into giving her a million dollars. She’s Cirie!
2) Amanda
3) China
4) I don’t think so, with the caveat that in this era especially final immunity challenges were being designed so that a player LIKE Cirie had a shot
5) Nope.
6) Cook islan….nah, HvV. Of course it’s HvV
7) Hv….nah, China. I liked her in Micronesia as well, but she was clearly the same person and player throughout. And that was most interesting the first time.
8) The obvious answer is the Black Widows- the particular chemistry of an alliance that made the final stretch of the season sing. But that’s kind of a cop-out; an alliance isn’t a player. I probably lean towards Cirie, who was as responsible as anyone for the Brigade’s wins AND endlessly charming to boot. Oh fuck it, the MVP was the F’ing stick.

Ok, so no power rankings this week, because my Internet provider is a piece of crap and left me without internet for almost a week. (If they don’t bring it back in time for Survivor tonight, I’ll sue them.)

My predictions are: first vote: Michaela. When you get to the merge with a gigantic majority, the main thing you don’t want to do right off the bat is to rock the boat. The lines will be crossed in the sand, as they say, and 9-4 is as good a line as it gets. (Actually, I’m confident it will be unanimous.)

After some days to get to know people and get accostumed with the tribe, I feel that people will want to make moves. 9-3 is so huge of a number difference, that Mana is as good as done, and old Nuku will look among their numbers for targets. (Also, the remaining Mana members seem to have some bonds with Brad’s alliance.) And then I feel a new majority alliance will form headed by Brad, against Ozzy, Andrea, Zeke, and Sarah. Sarah will be saved by Troy (it will be funny if their scenes together were meant to explain not how she saved him, as we all assumed, but how he saved her), and either Zeke or Ozzy is going out. Since people here (and I) like Zeke, and not like Ozzy, I’ll be a crowd-pleaser and predict Ozzy.

The shockers for me here are that Wentworth and Ozzy beat their opponents. With Kim, now that I think about it, it makes sense that more casuals remember an underdog from a recent season, and not gameboty winner from a while back. And it looks like that Rupert doesn’t have as much fan power as he once had (and probably also recency bias if I had to guess), but if it means that he isn’t near winning it, then I won’t mind. But now, WE HAVE TO UNITE BEAT THAT MONSTER OZZY AND MAKE SURE THAT MALCOLM IS IN THE NEXT ROUND. And the next match-ups are:
Cirie vs. Wentworth
Ozzy vs. Malcolm
Sandra vs. Natalie A
Rob M vs. Tony

Ashley Underwood, we’re forever grateful for what you’ve brought to the game. We are not worthy of the joy you bring us.

Like I said, people probably remember a person who was an underdog few seasons ago rather than a winner who played over 5 years ago, and a thing we worship most about is how good she’s at “strategy” and “social game”, plus she wasn’t really that insteresting of a character then. I am sad that she lost, I voted for her, but now besides Ozzy there isn’t anyone who I would be angry that they win (it’s STILL possible that he wins, but i’lm keeping the hope alive).

There is some serious recency bias showing in those results! It looks like the only match up where the person who played more recently didn’t win was Nat A vs. Kass (and I would be willing to go out on a limb and assume casuals hate Kass). Extending that pattern, I would predict the outcome of the new match ups would be Cirie, Sandra, Tony and….I guess Ozzy vs. Malc is a toss up, but I’d go with Ozzy since he’s still in the game. Not saying those are the right answers by any means, but I’m calling my shot now 🙂

So, I have a serious grievance to air:
The Amazon ad on this page for me is a bunch of Croc sandals, and the comments have been so great lately that I keep having to scroll past the ad when I refresh the page. Each time I scroll past I think “wow those look comfortable” so it turns out I am ~this close~ to actually buying and wearing Crocs. I hope you’re all happy >:[

I already wrote about this a few weeks ago, but since this will be the first time FFSDT will be able to use the Legacy Advantage, let me get into this again:

Although the merge is always hard to predict (as I imagine, for the players even more so than for us
viewers), Sierra doesn’t seem to be in immediate danger, so the following idea probably appears counter-intuitive.
But couldn’t she gain a strategic advantage by revealing to everyone that she is the Legacy Advantage Holder and what power that advantage contains?
And is it possible we saw her doing exactly that (at least to a select few) in the NToS-preview, where she gave the episode title?

I doubt anyone would even bother to scare her out of it if she announced that she had a regular idol at this crucial point of the game, but this Legacy Advantage is even harder to deal with, if you don’t have it. You can’t flush it, so you gain nothing by targeting the person who holds the LA.
Sure, there’s a small chance that you’re the beneficiary of her will, but she could easily prevent anyone wanting to take his chances by telling every single person that she’d give it to their adversaries, or vow to make a random draw, if she finds herself booted at any point.

Her tribemates could only gain an 1/12 chance (increasing over time, duh) of getting the advantage by voting her out (and if she does it right, each if them would think their chance is actually worse), but would risk running into the advantage like into an idol (if attempted at the F13 /F6 tribal) if it is played. Even if they succeeded in booting the LAH, they would lose sight of who is in possession of the advantage everyone now knows exists.
And isn‘t the devil you know better than the devil you don’t?

The safer path for almost everyone would be to align with the LAH, until this thing is used one way or another. If you can’t beat it, join it.

I think strategic use of the Legacy Advantage like that can give a huge leg up in getting to the Top 5, and would be something that the jury is also inclined to remember, when it’s time for them to vote.

So here’s my first draft of how I think people in the LAH’s position should play it:

– As soon as you’re sensing to be in any danger, make it widely known that you’re in possession of this advantage. Do it before the first date for usage.

– Let everyone know that it’s transferable (you can gift it to sb.while still in the game) and how the “legacy”-part works.
(To have people believe everything, you’d probably have to show the instructions around, but preferably you keep (parts of) them under wraps so you can add another unofficial day for usage.)

– Announce your intention to use it on yourself, regardless of circumstances, at the first opportunity
(“Getting the target of my back” or “Not wanting an advantage over everyone” or such BS)

Here is where it gets interesting, because, unless you’e already ostracised from the rest of your tribe, people should start to really flock to you and want to work with you, if only for that vote. By
keeping in private chats the possibility open, to play the LAH on the person you’re talking to (because “it would be a waste to play it on me. If everyone thinks I do that, nobody is going to vote for me anyway.”) there should be enough willing partners to engineer the merge vote you want (not too many should feel like they have a realistic shot at getting this before the first tribal council, though, but it can be a last resort to get one or two essential but desperate votes locked in.)

– Shortly before tribal, make sure enough and the right people know that you’re playing it on yourself after all, just to make sure there won’t be a blindside because people thought you plan to give it away.

– At the tribal that presents the first opportunity to play it, you don’t play it.

– Don’t be shy about having played everyone after tribal (but don’t gloat too much, obviously). That’s an important point, especially if you are, like FFSDT, the player everyone is wondering
about wtf you’re doing on a returnee season. Try to garner respect or the (non-)move, without pissing people off (despite all the text I wrote, I doubt this will even be the first thing on people’s minds, when they come back from the first post-merge tribal council – more like the B-story. I imagine in most cases a staggered reveal alone can help build a majority, and then it’s just like with an idol that everyone knew about, but wouldn’t have made a difference and didn’t
get played).

– Don’t bring it up again (until FTC), because you also don’t want to get isolated. Here is some skill necessary, but it should be possible. If people still see the rationale in not voting you out, they’re likely to find value in working with you.

– Make sure the right people are aware, that you’re still willing to share and that it is in nobody’s
interest to introduce more randomness into the game.

– Get your ducks in a row and then repeat the above at F6 or whatever the last tribal is, when it can be played .

– Only this time, you *can* actually give it away, so it protects someone in your final 3, if that’s what delivers a majority that you can feel good about.

– Now you have hopefully enough goats or loyal soldiers to make it to F3. If you don’t, you have to scramble, but you’re still only two ICs away from final tribal. And you had smooth sailing up until here, but still an impressive resumé to build your case on, if you make it to FTC.