Minnesota House hPVI, 2013 edition

This post is part of a series of posts concerning hPVI. The first phase of this series involves the introduction of brand spanking new 2013 hPVIs. That phase, the first, is the one in which this post belongs.

In the graph below each bar represents a House district, the height of the bar representing the hPVI of the district, districts on the left side of the graph are Republican leaning and districts on the right side are Democratic leaning. The color of the bar represents the party that currently occupies the seat.

The first vertical bar acts as the demarcation between Republican and Democratic leaning seats. The location of the 67th and 68th seats, the number of seats needed for control of the House, is marked by the second vertical bar.

This graph looks very similar to the one for the Senate. That’s not really surprising, since house districts are nested within Senate districts you would expect them to be similar in the aggregate.

Like the Senate version, Democrats are heavily concentrated in a handful of districts while Republicans are spread out over a much larger number of districts. This is evidenced by the fact that the halfway point, the 67th and 68th seats, are in Republican leaning territory.

Unlike in the Senate, where the Republicans have Jeremy Miller occupying a slightly DFL leaning seat, in the House the GOP has no such thing. They have a couple people occupying Even districts but nothing with a DFL lean. Meanwhile, Democrats hold a few moderately Republican districts and a bunch of marginal Republican districts.

The graph below breaks down the districts into three buckets, roughly; GOP friendly, competitive and DFL friendly.

The graph below is a further breakdown of that middle column, the theoretically competitive districts.

The differences in the House are not quite as stark as on the Senate side where the GOP had more than twice the number of these slightly advantageous districts. But while the advantage isn’t nearly as large, Republicans still have a bit of an advantage in these districts.

Here is the entire House hPVI list:

HD

Representative

Party

hPVI

1A

Dan Fabian

GOP

R+3

1B

Debra Kiel

GOP

R+1

2A

Roger Erickson

DFL

R+1

2B

Steve Green

GOP

R+6

3A

David Dill

DFL

D+10

3B

Mary Murphy

DFL

D+13

4A

Ben Lien

DFL

D+5

4B

Paul Marquart

DFL

R+2

5A

John Persell

DFL

D+3

5B

Tom Anzelc

DFL

D+2

6A

Carly Melin

DFL

D+18

6B

Jason Metsa

DFL

D+16

7A

Thomas Huntley

DFL

D+19

7B

Erik Simonson

DFL

D+22

8A

Bud Nornes

GOP

R+10

8B

Mary Franson

GOP

R+9

9A

Mark Anderson

GOP

R+11

9B

Ron Kresha

GOP

R+11

10A

John Ward

DFL

R+6

10B

Joe Radinovich

DFL

R+4

11A

Mike Sundin

DFL

D+14

11B

Tim Faust

DFL

R+3

12A

Jay McNamar

DFL

R+2

12B

Paul Anderson

GOP

R+13

13A

Jeff Howe

GOP

R+9

13B

Tim O’Driscoll

GOP

R+9

14A

Tama Theis

GOP

R+2

14B

Zachary Dorholt

DFL

D+3

15A

Sondra Erickson

GOP

R+8

15B

Jim Newberger

GOP

R+15

16A

Chris Swedzinski

GOP

R+3

16B

Paul Torkelson

GOP

R+11

17A

Andrew Falk

DFL

R+1

17B

Mary Sawatzky

DFL

R+3

18A

Dean Urdahl

GOP

R+10

18B

Glenn Gruenhagen

GOP

R+14

19A

Clark Johnson

DFL

D+3

19B

Kathy Brynaert

DFL

D+7

20A

Kelby Woodard

GOP

R+11

20B

David Bly

DFL

D+3

21A

Tim Kelly

GOP

R+1

21B

Steve Drazkowski

GOP

R+7

22A

Joe Schomacker

GOP

R+8

22B

Rod Hamilton

GOP

R+5

23A

Bob Gunther

GOP

R+11

23B

Tony Cornish

GOP

R+3

24A

John Petersburg

GOP

R+5

24B

Patti Fritz

DFL

R+4

25A

Duane Quam

GOP

R+7

25B

Kim Norton

DFL

D+1

26A

Tina Liebling

DFL

D+4

26B

Mike Benson

GOP

R+7

27A

Shannon Savick

DFL

D+6

27B

Jeanne Poppe

DFL

D+10

28A

Gene Pelowski

DFL

D+5

28B

Greg Davids

GOP

EVEN

29A

Joe McDonald

GOP

R+14

29B

Marion O’Neill

GOP

R+11

30A

Nick Zerwas

GOP

R+12

30B

David Fitzsimmons

GOP

R+16

31A

Kurt Daudt

GOP

R+15

31B

Tom Hackbarth

GOP

R+12

32A

Brian Johnson

GOP

R+8

32B

Bob Barrett

GOP

R+7

33A

Jerry Hertaus

GOP

R+17

33B

Cindy Pugh

GOP

R+9

34A

Joyce Peppin

GOP

R+12

34B

Kurt Zellers

GOP

R+6

35A

Jim Abeler

GOP

R+6

35B

Peggy Scott

GOP

R+11

36A

Mark Uglem

GOP

R+4

36B

Melissa Hortman

DFL

D+3

37A

Jerry Newton

DFL

D+2

37B

Tim Sanders

GOP

R+2

38A

Linda Runbeck

GOP

R+7

38B

Matt Dean

GOP

R+5

39A

Bob Dettmer

GOP

R+6

39B

Kathy Lohmer

GOP

R+4

40A

Michael Nelson

DFL

D+15

40B

Debra Hilstrom

DFL

D+15

41A

Connie Bernardy

DFL

D+8

41B

Carolyn Laine

DFL

D+11

42A

Barb Yarusso

DFL

EVEN

42B

Jason Isaacson

DFL

D+5

43A

Peter Fischer

DFL

D+5

43B

Leon Lillie

DFL

D+6

44A

Sarah Anderson

GOP

R+5

44B

John Benson

DFL

D+2

45A

Lyndon Carlson

DFL

D+7

45B

Mike Freiberg

DFL

D+13

46A

Ryan Winkler

DFL

D+13

46B

Steve Simon

DFL

D+16

47A

Ernie Leidiger

GOP

R+17

47B

Joe Hoppe

GOP

R+12

48A

Yvonne Selcer

DFL

R+1

48B

Jenifer Loon

GOP

R+7

49A

Ron Erhardt

DFL

EVEN

49B

Paul Rosenthal

DFL

EVEN

50A

Linda Slocum

DFL

D+13

50B

Ann Lenczewski

DFL

D+6

51A

Sandra Masin

DFL

D+3

51B

Laurie Halverson

DFL

EVEN

52A

Rick Hansen

DFL

D+7

52B

Joe Atkins

DFL

D+1

53A

JoAnn Ward

DFL

D+4

53B

Andrea Kieffer

GOP

R+6

54A

Dan Schoen

DFL

D+5

54B

Denny McNamara

GOP

R+2

55A

Michael Beard

GOP

R+6

55B

Tony Albright

GOP

R+15

56A

Pam Myhra

GOP

R+6

56B

Will Morgan

DFL

R+3

57A

Tara Mack

GOP

R+1

57B

Anna Wills

GOP

R+4

58A

Mary Liz Holberg

GOP

R+11

58B

Pat Garofalo

GOP

R+10

59A

Joe Mullery

DFL

D+32

59B

Raymond Dehn

DFL

D+35

60A

Diane Loeffler

DFL

D+29

60B

Phyllis Kahn

DFL

D+32

61A

Frank Hornstein

DFL

D+30

61B

Paul Thissen

DFL

D+29

62A

Karen Clark

DFL

D+37

62B

Susan Allen

DFL

D+39

63A

Jim Davnie

DFL

D+35

63B

Jean Wagenius

DFL

D+24

64A

Erin Murphy

DFL

D+29

64B

Michael Paymar

DFL

D+21

65A

Rena Moran

DFL

D+35

65B

Carlos Mariani

DFL

D+29

66A

Alice Hausman

DFL

D+16

66B

John Lesch

DFL

D+28

67A

Tim Mahoney

DFL

D+24

67B

Sheldon Johnson

DFL

D+24

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