A Tropical Wave (currently about 3 days away to the east in the Tropical Atlantic) appears to have formed a depression and could develop further over the next 3 days.

I reckon this could arrive as a Tropical Wave in the eastern Caribbean by Saturday. This can bring unpredictable weather conditions over a wide area of the eastern Caribbean for a period of 24 hours before it moves west and possibly develops further in the central or west Caribbean.

If any development occurs before arrival then any disturbed weather conditions should be more localised and likely be to the north of Tobago.

This is something to be aware of up to this weekend.

Meanwhile, Debby has weakened over Florida but brought considerable rainfall ... I expect her to strengthen again when she moves east over warm Atlantic water.

The Tropical Wave east of Tobago is about 800 miles away and moving at around 15 mph ... about 50-60 hours away and it's weather will start affecting the eastern Caribbean very late Saturday and Sunday.

Thunderstorm activity has increased and the NHC are giving it a 20% chance of Storm development within 48 hours ... this prediction could become better or worse quite quickly ... these Waves can kick off quite dramatically as they enter the Caribbean Sea or they can just die out depending on the conditions ... right now, there seems nothing adverse for development.

As I said in the previous post ... unless a closed circulation forms, there could be widespread rainfall by Sunday with some localised Stormy conditions across most of the eastern Caribbean.

If there is any development then conditions are likely to be problematic for a narrower area, likely to be to the north of Tobago.

I would recommend caution and to not make any sea-faring plans or open-top drives around the rainforest this weekend until we are sure the risks of bad weather are over.

A Tropical Wave is approaching as I indicated in Liquid Sunshine yesterday. A depression is forming at around 9 degrees which is quite close to the equator. The NHC are issuing advisories on this and the weather models have a spread of predictions regarding the future track of this Storm ranging from the northern Caribbean to well south of Trinidad.

I have noted with interest the more southerly tracks indicated in the predictions than those of yesterday which were all to the north of Tobago.

The general consensus is that this will develop into a named Storm (Ernesto) but it is about 'when' that really matters.

Early development (the next 48 hours appears unlikely) would indicate a more northerly track but slow development could be bad news for Tobago and the Lesser Antilles this weekend, even if it is not quite a Tropical Storm by the time it arrives.

This disturbed area of weather is expected to reach the eastern Caribbean by Friday night or Saturday morning so there are 3 days for everyone to prepare for adverse weather conditions at the very least.

I will post another update tomorrow or earlier if I see further developments.

Potential 'Ernesto' is slowly developing but still a little too close to the equator to get any turning motion going as it tracks steadily west ... getting closer to the Lesser Antilles.

The environment is good for development apart from the low latitude but there is a little dry air ahead that could disrupt the Storm.

There is no consensus of when development into a Storm will occur ... it is looking very likely that Tobago and most of the Lesser Antilles will be affected but to what extent is impossible to tell for another 48 hours.

Heavy rains may reach Tobago by Thursday but this depression is another 24 hours or so behind the leading thunderstorms.

It could be a very wet weekend ... I would be cautious about arranging any boat and rainforest trips at this stage.

The NHC has raised the stakes, predicting a 50% chance that Ernesto could form within 48 hours and the consensus of all the (increasingly reliable) weather models takes the track straight over Tobago (this could change).

We can only hope that the track changes otherwise the consequences for Tobago could be quite unpleasant this weekend (even if development into a Tropical Storm does not occur) ... there is still considerable uncertainty as to when development into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane will occur and it looks like a very close call for Tobago.

In view of this, my advice is to assume the worst and hope for the best and I strongly recommend Tobago prepares for severe weather this weekend and bring the fishing boats in.

Based on the current situation, rain will start to affect Tobago and the other Islands on the Leeward side late tonight and early tomorrow. Any stormy conditions are likely to arrive about 24 hours later (Friday).

I am keeping my fingers crossed that the track changes or a miraculous burst of dry air snuffs this potential problem out.

Ernesto has wobbled back north and the centre is skirting the northern coast of Barbados.

Areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms are to the south of the system and these are affecting Trinidad & Tobago and will continue to do so for the next 24 hours.

Ernesto is still struggling a little but once through the Windward Islands the conditions look ideal for development into a major hurricane with Jamaica and Cuba at risk in 4/5 days time.

Another system has moved off the coast of Africa but this is in a more Northerly position and more likely to miss the Caribbean altogether in the event of early development ... the NHC are rating this only 10% for now. If development does not occur then this could bring heavy rains to the Caribbean during the middle of next week.

Ernesto appears to be re-strengthening as it passes close to St Lucia and the rainfall to the south of the system is now affecting Trinidad & Tobago.

The NHC have raised their stakes on the new Wave to 30% and this is good for the Caribbean as any development will make this Storm go north and possibly even miss the US and curve back out into the north Atlantic.

As Hurricane Ernesto powers across northern Belize and Mexico, attention is now turning to a new development south of the Cape Verde Islands ... this is the 'blob' I referred to in a previous post crossing central Africa.

This one is expected to take a similar track to Ernesto but probably a little further north so there is a low threat to Tobago at this stage. The weather models did a good job on Ernesto and I expect them to do them same with this one.

Higher risks apply to the Islands north of Tobago if development occurs.

The risk to Tobago is rain for the weekend but I will be keeping an eye on this in case it wobbles any further south.

The 'blob' I referred to has upgraded to a Tropical Depression with a good chance that it will pass right through the middle of the Windward Islands by Sunday as a Tropical Storm.

It has teetered south a little bit so it is still worth watching carefully.

Tobago can expect some indirect rainfall from this system maybe from late Saturday through to Monday.

Behind this is a new development and this looks like a real beast however it is at a higher latitude and about to run through the Cape Verde Islands so I don't expect this to affect the Caribbean at this stage ... this one could affect the eastern US sometime during the middle of next week or it could recurve back out into the Atlantic.

Very intense rainfall is affecting Trinidad and Tobago as an indirect result of the proximity of Tropical Depression 7.

In fact, the rainfall around the 'non-existent' center of the Depression is less intense then the rain over T&T and there is some speculation as to whether the system has opened up to become a vigorous Tropical Wave ... this means that the rainfall and winds can be spread over a wider area.

I have even wondered to myself (even though I am mad!) if the center could have jumped south where conditions around T&T are more favourable for development ... could this have happened?

Regardless of the madness of my theories, as predicted there is rainfall for Tobago ... it will be very heavy and could last at least 18 more hours.

I woke up by 5:30 am from the noise of a heavy downpour hammering my metal roof.
It subsided fortunately after a short while and some heavy drizzle continued for the next few hours.
Right now (1:30 pm) rainfall has stopped and it is clearing up in the Scarborough area.

The western part of Trinidad has been hit hard by torrenial rain and severe flooding.
Most affected areas are the Diego Martin Valley, La Horquette / Glencoe and Carenage, where roads have been
washed away and bridges collapsed. First responders including the army engineers batallion are out in
full force. A 25-year old man was killed when his house collapsed.

There are no reports of any significant damage or casualties in Tobago.

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