The Role of Shorting, Firm Size, and Time on Market Anomalies

Transcription

1 The Role of Shorting, Firm Size, and Time on Market Anomalies RONEN ISRAEL AND TOBIAS J. MOSKOWITZ Updated Version: February 2011 Abstract We examine the role of shorting, firm size, and time on the profitability of size, value, and momentum strategies. We find that long positions comprise the bulk of the returns to size, slightly more than half of value, and half of momentum. Shorting becomes less important for momentum and more important for value as firm size decreases. The value premium decreases with firm size and is negligible among the largest stocks. Momentum profits, contrary to claims in the literature, are unaffected by firm size. These effects are robust over 83 years of U.S. equity data and over 30 years of data in four international equity markets and five asset classes. Variation over time and across markets of these effects is consistent with random chance. Israel is a Principal at AQR Capital Management and Moskowitz is at the Booth School of Business, University of Chicago and NBER and is a consultant to AQR Capital. We thank Cliff Asness, John Cochrane, Andrea Frazzini, Marco Hanig, Bryan Johnson, Lars Nielsen, and Lasse Pedersen for useful comments and suggestions. 1

2 The returns to portfolios based on firm size, value, and momentum have presented a challenge to asset pricing theory since their discovery. 1 The pervasiveness, robustness, and magnitude of the return premia associated with size, value, and momentum has made them the focal point for discussions of market efficiency and critical inputs for describing the cross-section of expected returns. These market anomalies have been shown to be robust in other stock markets, other time periods, and other asset classes (Chan, Hamao, and Lakonishok (1991), Fama and French (1998, 2010), Rouwenhorst (1998), Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010)) and have motivated the use of empirical asset pricing models that incorporate their returns (Fama and French (1993, 2010), Carhart (1997), and Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010)). In this paper, we investigate three questions with respect to these anomalies. First, how important is short selling to the profitability of these strategies? Second, what role does firm size play on the efficacy of these investment styles? Third, how have the returns to these strategies and the role of size and shorting varied over time? We examine the role of shorting from two perspectives: the value added from literal short selling of assets in a long-short portfolio as well as the value added from underweighting stocks relative to a benchmark (e.g., the market portfolio). Since short positions are generally more costly to maintain than long positions and since many investors are restricted from taking short positions (e.g., many mutual funds and institutional investors), if shorting is an important driver of the profits of these strategies, then the net of trading cost returns may be substantially lower and not accessible to some investors. The role of firm size also plays a dual role in our study. First, we examine the return premium associated with size. Second, we examine the interaction between firm size and the return premia to value and momentum, including the interaction of firm size with the importance of shorting for these strategies. If the bulk of the returns to these strategies are concentrated among small or micro-cap stocks, then the fraction of the market affected by these anomalies may be small. Moreover, since trading costs vary substantially across firm size, this analysis may shed light on the implementation costs of these strategies. The interaction between firm size and the role of shorting also provides 1 Small stocks on average outperform large stocks (based on market capitalization), even after adjusting for market exposure (Banz (1981), Roll (1983), Fama and French (1992)). Likewise, value stocks, with high ratios of fundamental or book value to market value (such as book-to-market equity, cash flow-to-price, or earnings-to-price ratios) outperform growth stocks, which have low book-to-price ratios (Stattman (1980), Rosenberg, Reid, and Lanstein (1985), DeBondt and Thaler (1985), Fama and French (1992), and Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishny (1994)). There is also positive momentum in stock returns. Stocks which have done well relative to other stocks over the last six months to a year continue to outperform their peers over the next six months to a year, and stocks which have done relatively poorly continue to underperform (Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), Asness (1994), Fama and French (1996), Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999)). 2

3 insight into the efficacy of these strategies since small stocks are more difficult and more costly to short and are the least impactful to underweight relative to the market portfolio. Using data over the last 83 years in the U.S. stock market (from 1926 to 2009) and over the last four decades in international stock markets and other asset classes (from 1972 to 2009), we find that the importance of shorting is inconsequential for all strategies when looking at raw returns. For an investor who cares only about raw returns the return premia to size, value, and momentum are dominated by the contribution from long positions. Shorting only matters if investors care about returns relative to a benchmark, such as the market portfolio. Looking at market-adjusted returns (market alphas), long positions comprise the bulk of the size premium, capture about 60 percent of the value premium, and comprise half of the momentum return premium. Long-only versions of value and momentum deliver positive and significant alphas relative to the market. Looking across different sized firms, we find that the momentum premium is present and stable across all size groups there is little evidence that momentum is substantially stronger among small cap stocks over the entire 83-year U.S. sample period. The value premium, on the other hand, is largely concentrated only among small stocks and is insignificant among the largest two quintiles of stocks (largest 40% of NYSE stocks). 2 The contribution to value and momentum profits from shorting also varies with firm size. Shorting becomes less important for momentum strategies and more important for value strategies as firm size decreases. The opposite holds as firm size increases. However, across all size groups we cannot reject that the (market-adjusted) profits to value and momentum trading are generated equally by long and short positions. We examine the robustness of these findings over time and across other stock markets and asset classes. We find significant momentum returns are present across size categories in every 20-year subsample we examine, including the most recent two decades that followed the initial publication of the original momentum studies. Moreover, the findings of Hong, Lim, and Stein (1999) and Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004) that momentum is markedly stronger among small cap stocks and on the short side seems to be sample specific. Outside of the samples studied in those papers, we find no evidence that momentum is stronger among small stocks or from shorting, and over the entire period that includes those samples, there is no significant difference in momentum returns across size 2 We follow the academic literature and, specifically, Fama and French (1992, 2008, 2010) in forming portfolios that use all publicly traded stocks on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. This means our smallest size groupings of stocks contain mostly micro-cap stocks that may be difficult to trade and implement in a real-world portfolio. The smallest two groupings of stocks contain firms that are much smaller than firms in the Russell 2000 universe, for example. 3

4 groups or from shorting. Returns to value investing, however, are consistently stronger among small cap stocks in every subperiod and non-existent among large cap stocks in three of the four subperiods we examine. Overall, we find no evidence that returns to these strategies have changed over time, or that the contribution from long versus short positions has changed over time. Additional evidence from four international equity markets and five other asset classes confirms the existence of value and momentum return premia and the equal contribution of long and short positions to those returns. Our findings shed new light on the vast literature on size, value, and momentum effects in asset pricing. Hong, Lim, and Stein (1999) and Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004) also examine momentum returns across firm size and the long versus short side contributions to momentum profits. Their conclusions that momentum is stronger among small cap stocks and that two-thirds of the profits come from shorting is not robust out of sample. We find momentum returns are largely unaffected by size and that the short side is no more profitable than the long side when looking at our longer 83- year sample period and in other asset markets. Fama and French (2010) examine value and momentum in international stock markets from 1990 to 2009 across size groupings. They find that both value and momentum premia are present in all markets, with the exception of momentum in Japan, 3 and that value and momentum premia exist in all size groups, with return premia being stronger as size decreases. Over our longer 83-year sample period, we find no evidence that momentum declines with firm size, but we find consistent evidence that value returns are weaker for larger stocks. The rest of the paper proceeds as follows. Section I describes our data and portfolios. Section II analyzes the importance of shorting and time on size, value, and momentum strategies. Section III examines the role of firm size on value and momentum return premia as well as the interaction between firm size and the importance of shorting. Section IV analyzes how the importance of shorting and firm size vary over time and Section V examines other equity markets and asset classes. Section VI concludes. I. Data We detail our data sources used in this study. Most of the analysis pertains to U.S. equity portfolios over the period July 1926 to December 2009 for value and size portfolios and over the period January 1927 to December 2009 for momentum portfolios. We also examine international 3 See Asness (2011) for a counter-view of whether momentum exists in Japan. Asness (2011) argues that relative to a value benchmark or the Fama and French (2010) three factor model in Japan, momentum exhibits a robust and sizeable return premium. The mean-variance frontier of Japanese stocks contains a significantly positive tilt toward momentum. 4

5 equity portfolios and portfolios of other asset classes that include country equity indices, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. A. U.S. equity portfolios All of the data for U.S. equity portfolios comes from Ken French s website and is derived from underlying returns data from the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP). We examine valueweighted and equal-weighted decile and quintile portfolios formed on size (market capitalization), value (book-to-market equity), and momentum (past 12-month return skipping the most recent month), as well as five-by-five quintile double sorted portfolios formed sequentially on size then value and also size then momentum (dependent sorts on size). The size decile portfolios are formed by ranking stocks on their market capitalization in June of the previous year and forming 10 equal groups based on NYSE breakpoints. All publicly traded stocks on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ are then assigned based on their June market caps to one of these decile groups and the returns to each decile are computed over the following year. 4 Two sets of decile portfolio returns are computed: value-weighting the stocks in each decile and equalweighting them. The same procedure is used to form decile portfolios based on value, where firms are ranked each June based on their book-to-market equity ratios (BE/ME) instead of firm size, where BE/ME is the ratio of book equity for the last fiscal year end divided by market equity for December of that year. Decile portfolios for momentum are formed by ranking stocks each month based on their past 12 month return skipping the most recent month (cumulative return from month t- 12 to t-2). The five-by-five double sorted size and value and size and momentum portfolios are formed similarly, except that size quintile portfolios are formed and value and momentum portfolios are formed dependently within each size quintile. First, size quintiles are formed using NYSE breakpoints in the same manner as the decile portfolios described above, and then within each size quintile, BE/ME quintiles are formed using the same procedure, creating 25 size and value portfolios. The same procedure is repeated to form 25 size and momentum portfolios. For more details on the construction of these portfolios see Ken French's website. 4 Fama and French (1993, 1996, 2008) use NYSE breakpoints so that each decile contains an equal number of NYSE stocks. Since AMEX and NASDAQ contain much smaller stocks on average, this prevents the deciles from becoming exchange specific and therefore for comparisons across deciles to be confounded by exchange effects. In addition, since AMEX begins in 1963 and NASDAQ in 1973, use of NYSE breakpoints provides more consistency over time and allows for more meaningful comparisons to be made over time, particularly prior to

6 We use the size-value and size-momentum portfolios to examine the results for value and momentum across different sized stocks. To give the reader a sense for the size groupings, as of December 2009, the average sized stock in the largest size group, quintile 5, is just over $29 billion. The average sized stock in the Russell 1000 at the end of 2009 is $12.4 billion. The second largest size group, quintile 4, has an average size of $3.8 billion at the end of The averaged sized stock in the Russell Midcap index at that time is $4.5 billion. Size quintile 3 has an average market cap of $1.6 billion, which is larger than the average sized firm in the Russell 2000 index at that time which is $565 million. The smallest size groupings, quintiles 2 and 1, have average market caps of $654 million and $119 million, respectively. Size quintile 2, therefore, contains stocks that are on average about the average of stocks in the Russell 2000 index and quintile 1 contains essentially micro-cap stocks. Most stocks in quintiles 1 and 2 may face significant trading costs for any reasonably sized portfolio. We also obtain the Fama and French factor portfolios RMRF, SMB, HML, and UMD, which are, respectively, the returns to the CRSP value-weighted market portfolio in excess of the Treasury Bill rate (RMRF), a small minus big (SMB) factor that is long the smallest half of firms and short the largest half of firms, a high minus low (HML) book-to-market factor, and an up minus down (UMD) momentum factor. SMB and HML are formed by first splitting the universe of stocks into two size categories (S and B) using NYSE market cap medians and then splitting stocks into three groups based on book-to-market equity (highest 30% (H), middle 40% (M), and lowest 30% (L), using NYSE breakpoints). 5 The intersection of stocks across the six categories are value-weighed and used to form the portfolios SH (small, high BE/ME), SM (small, middle BE/ME), SL (small, low BE/ME), BH (big, high BE/ME), BM (big, middle BE/ME), BL (big, low BE/ME), where SMB is the average of the three small stock portfolios (1/3SH+1/3SM+1/3SL) minus the average of the three big stock portfolios (1/3BH+1/3BM+1/3BL) and HML is the average of the two high book-to-market portfolios (1/2SH+1/2BH) minus the average of the two low book-to-market portfolios (1/2SL+1/2BL). UMD is constructed similarly to HML, where two size groups and three momentum groups (highest 30% (U), middle 40% (M), lowest 30% (D)) are used to form six portfolios and UMD is the average of the small and big winners minus the average of the small and big losers. We also examine just the long side of these factors: portfolios S, H, and U, which are, respectively, a 5 Specifically, all publicly traded stocks on CRSP from the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ are sorted based on their size (market capitalization) as of the prior June and put into two groups small and big based on NYSE median size breakpoints. Stocks are also sorted independently into three groups based on the prior June's BE/ME. The book-to-market groupings are based on NYSE breakpoints as of the prior June. 6

7 value weighted portfolio of the smallest half of stocks based on NYSE breakpoints (1/3SH+1/3SM+1/3SB), the average of the two highest 30% BE/ME portfolios among small and large stocks (1/2SH+1/2BH), and the average of the two highest 30% past 12-month return (skipping the most recent month) portfolios among small and large stocks (1/2SU+1/2BU). B. International equity and other asset class portfolios International equity and other asset class portfolios are obtained from Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010). International equity returns are from Datastream and are aggregated across four regions: the U.S., U.K., Europe (excluding U.K.), and Japan. All returns are denominated in $U.S. Data from the U.S. and U.K. cover the period February 1972 to December 2009, and for Europe and Japan from February 1974 to December Equity index return data comes from MSCI for 18 developed markets covering the period January 1978 to December International government bond returns come from Bloomberg and Datastream covering 10 developed markets from January 1982 to December Currency returns for 10 developed countries come from Bloomberg for the period January 1979 to December Commodity futures returns on 27 commodities come from a variety of exchanges and cover the period January 1972 to December Details on the source of these returns and their construction can be found in Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010). We obtain the value and momentum portfolios in each of these markets and asset classes used by Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010), who divide each market s or asset classes securities into three equal groups based on value or momentum rankings, where momentum is defined as the past 12-month return on each security, skipping the most recent month s return, and value is defined as book-to-market equity for stocks and stock indices and by the negative of the past 60-month return on the security for other asset classes. 6 Securities are then value-weighted within each group in the case of individual stocks and equal-weighted in the case of other asset classes. The spread in returns between the portfolios representing the top and bottom third of securities capture the value and momentum premia within each market and asset class. 6 The motivation for using the negative of the past five year return as a value indicator comes from DeBondt and Thaler (1985, 1987) and Fama and French (1996) who show that the past five year performance of stocks is a signal of value. Asness, Moskowitz and Pedersen (2010) find that portfolios created from past five year returns are highly positively correlated (about 0.60) to portfolios created from other value measures such as book-to-market equity. 7

8 II. The Importance of Shorting and Time We examine how important short selling and time are to the profitability of size, value, and momentum strategies. A. Fama and French factor portfolios We begin by looking at the profits to size, value, and momentum long-short strategies from the Fama and French factor portfolios. Figure 1 (A) plots the cumulative (sum of log) returns of the Fama and French portfolios SMB, HML, and UMD. Over the 1927 to 2009 time period, returns to momentum are highest, averaging 8.35 percent per year with an annual standard deviation of 16.7 percent (an annual Sharpe ratio of 0.50), followed by value, averaging 4.84 percent per year with 12.4 percent annual volatility (Sharpe ratio of 0.39), and then size, averaging 2.9 percent per year with 11.5 percent standard deviation (Sharpe ratio of 0.25). 7 Figure 1 (B) plots the cumulative CAPM alphas of SMB, HML, and UMD, where CAPM betas are estimated unconditionally over the entire sample period by running a time-series regression of each portfolio's monthly returns on the CRSP value weighted market index return in excess of the T- bill rate. SMB exhibits an insignificant 1.46 percent per year alpha that is statistically indistinguishable from zero. HML has a 3.74 percent per year alpha that is 2.8 standard errors from zero, and UMD has a percent per year alpha that is six standard errors from zero. Comparing Figures 1 (A) and 1 (B), adjusting for market beta exposure decreases the size and value premia, but increases the momentum premium. Figure 1 (C) plots the cumulative raw excess returns of the long-only components of the Fama and French factor portfolios: S, H, and U. The same ranking of performance among the three investment styles is present, where long-only momentum outperforms long-only value, which in turn outperforms long-only size. The long-only momentum portfolio generates 13.5 percent (in excess of T-bills) per year on average with a 21.8 percent standard deviation (Sharpe ratio of 0.62). The longonly value portfolio produces 12.5 percent (in excess of T-bills) per year with a higher 26.6 percent volatility (Sharpe ratio of 0.47) and the long-only size portfolio generates 11.4 percent (in excess of T-bills) per year with 26.4 percent standard deviation (Sharpe ratio of 0.43). Since the long-only portfolios are dominated by general stock market exposure, we also report the unconditional market betas of each portfolio. Small stocks and value stocks have betas of 1.26 and 1.27, respectively, and 7 We note our sample, which ends in December 2009, includes the "disastrous" recent momentum performance in 2009, which is evident in Figure 1 (A). Despite this extreme negative return episode, momentum still has the highest average return and Sharpe ratio among the strategies. 8

9 winners have a beta of only Figure 1 (D) plots the cumulative alphas of the long-only portfolios relative to the market portfolio. The size and value portfolio returns are reduced more by beta adjustment than momentum. Size and value exhibit 2.06 and 3.10 percent per year alphas, respectively, while momentum has a 5.64 percent alpha. Moreover, the residual volatility of the momentum portfolio (7.63 percent) is smaller than that of size (11.15 percent) or value (11.40 percent). Hence, long-only momentum produces an annual information ratio of 0.74 compared to only a 0.27 information ratio for long-only value and an information ratio of 0.19 for long-only size. Figure 1 (D) indicates that a long-only version of size produces a marginally significant abnormal return, but that long-only versions of value and momentum deliver significant abnormal returns above the market return. Moreover, the relative performance of momentum is much larger than value, even in a long-only context (and ignoring transactions costs). Hence, for an investor constrained to hold long-only investments, size, value, and momentum still offer additional return premia above the general market return, where momentum offers the largest premium. Table 1 reports the CAPM alphas of the long, short, and long minus short returns associated with size, value, and momentum over various subperiods, using the Fama and French factor portfolios. The first column reports results from 1926 (or 1927 in the case of momentum) to 1962 before the introduction of AMEX (1963) and NASDAQ (1973) stocks to CRSP. The second column reports results from 1963 to Beginning with size, there is no significant alpha for SMB over either time period, though the long-side of SMB (S) exhibits a marginally significant alpha of 2.56 percent per year from 1963 to HML exhibits a significant CAPM alpha of 4.39 percent per year post-1963, but an insignificant 2.89 percent alpha pre This result is consistent with Fama and French (2007) who also find that the CAPM can capture HML in the pre-1962 period. UMD exhibits a robust alpha over both periods: percent from 1927 to 1962 and percent from 1963 to Looking at the long and short sides of these portfolios, SMB is dominated by long positions, HML is driven mostly, but not entirely, by the long side, and UMD appears to be equally driven by long and short profitability. Focusing only on the long side of each strategy, momentum continues to produce larger and more consistent alphas than size or value. The remaining four columns of Table 1 report results across four subperiods split into roughly twenty year intervals over the entire sample period. Looking at these finer time slices, there is no significant size premium in any subperiod after adjusting for the market. The value premium is positive in every subperiod but is only significant from 1970 to The momentum premium is positive and significant in every time period studied. 9

10 B. Decile portfolios To further examine the role shorting plays in the efficacy of size, value, and momentum strategies we examine portfolios based on finer sorts of these characteristics. Table 2 reports the average raw returns in excess of T-Bills, Sharpe ratios, and market (CAPM) alphas of valueweighted decile sorted portfolios based on size, value, and momentum over the period July 1926 to December 2009 (January 1927 to December 2009 for momentum). To gauge the importance of the long and short sides of these strategies, as well as any asymmetries in their returns, we report the differences between deciles 10 and 1 (10-1), as well as the differences between the average of deciles 9 and 10 and the average of deciles 1 and 2 (9-2), 8 through 10 and 1 through 3 (8-3), and 7 through 10 and 1 through 4 (7-4). These differences will be informative about whether the extreme portfolios behave any differently and how monotonic the relation is between these characteristics and returns. As Table 2 shows, size, value, and momentum all exhibit a monotonic relation with average raw excess returns. Moving across the deciles generates consistently higher mean returns and the spread in returns from deciles 10-1 through deciles 7-4 declines monotonically. However, the monotonic relation is not as evident when looking at Sharpe ratios because volatility tends to be U-shaped across the deciles, being highest for the two most extreme portfolios. The Sharpe ratios of size and value portfolios are pretty flat across the deciles as a result, where the higher returns for the higher deciles are being offset by higher volatility. Momentum exhibits a more monotonic relation across deciles with respect to Sharpe ratios, though the relation is flatter than it is for average returns, suggesting that volatility rises across the deciles but not as fast as average returns. Looking at market alphas, there are no significant abnormal returns for size or value decile spreads over the entire 1926 to 2009 time period. Alphas for momentum, however, are statistically and economically large. The CAPM, therefore, when estimated over the full sample period, appears to capture the returns associated with size and value-sorted value-weighted decile portfolios. But, momentum decile portfolio returns are left unexplained by the CAPM. The results in Table 2 also highlight that long-only versions of size, value, and momentum are profitable, where value stocks and winners deliver significant abnormal performance relative to the market. Moreover, value and momentum returns are not concentrated only among the securities with the most extreme characteristics. Deciles 8 and 9 also produce robust and significant alphas. Momentum appears to be more influenced by the extreme portfolios, especially decile 1, but exhibits a monotone relation with returns across deciles. 10

11 III. Interaction of Firm Size with Value and Momentum Size plays a dual role in our study. In addition to studying the premium for size sorted portfolios in the previous section, in this section we examine the interaction between firm size and value and firm size and momentum profitability. We analyze whether value and momentum premia are stronger among various sized stocks, whether the contribution to profits from longs and shorts differs across size groups, and whether any of these effects change over time. To evaluate the role firm size plays in the returns to value and momentum we examine the 25 Fama and French portfolios based on five size sorted portfolios and then five dependent value sorted portfolios within each size quintile, as well as 25 portfolios based on the same size quintiles and five dependent momentum portfolios within each size group. We focus on value weighted versions of each of these sets of 25 portfolios, but also report results for equal weighted portfolios. Table 3 reports the raw excess returns and market (CAPM) alphas of the 25 size and value and 25 size and momentum sorted portfolios estimated over the entire sample period. Returns and alphas are estimated from monthly returns but reported as annualized percentages. The 5-1 quintile spread return differences between high BE/ME and low BE/ME stocks and high and low momentum stocks within each size quintile, as well as the returns and alphas of just the long side quintile portfolio 5 within each size quintile are reported. Table 3 also reports the t-statistic of the mean returns and alphas, and the percentage of 5-1 profits coming from the long side, including a formal statistical test of whether the profits from the long side are significantly different from 50 percent an equal split between long and short contribution to profits. The last column of Table 3 reports the difference in mean returns and alphas between the smallest and largest quintile of stocks for both the 5-1 spread and long only (quintile 5) portfolios of value and momentum. As the top half of Table 3 indicates, the value premium declines monotonically with firm size. The raw return spread for high minus low BE/ME firms is 11.48% per year among the smallest quintile of stocks and 4.29% among the largest quintile of stocks. More than 100% of these return differences come from the long side. That is, an investor not worried about market exposure would be better off only taking the long side of these value strategies in each size quintile. However, adjusting for market exposure and market returns changes the picture somewhat. First, alphas of the 5-1 value spread in returns are also stronger among small stocks, and are insignificant among large stocks. Second, looking at the long only side of value strategies across size quintiles the same pattern emerges: strong positive alphas for long-only value among small cap stocks and insignificant alphas among large caps. However, the difference in long-only value returns across size groups is 11

12 statistically insignificant, though economically there is a 3.97% per year difference in long-only value returns between the smallest and largest quintiles. Since the difference in long-short 5-1 value spread returns is 10.59% between the smallest and largest size quintiles, this implies that shorting profits to value vary more across size groups. The contribution of long side returns to value profitability increases as size increases. Among the smallest stocks, the long side of value contributes only 48 percent to total profits, but among the largest stocks the contribution of long positions is 90 percent. Since shorting small, growth stocks may be expensive or difficult to implement, this may reduce the net of trading cost returns to a small value strategy in practice. While long positions comprise nearly all of the value premium among the largest stocks, the alpha for value among large stocks is not reliably different from zero. The bottom half of Table 3 shows momentum exhibits strong predictability within each size quintile, with no evidence that momentum returns are stronger among small versus large cap stocks. Comparing the returns to value and momentum, the momentum premium is consistently larger than the value premium in every size group except the smallest one, where they are equal. Momentum returns appear slightly stronger among the smallest quintile of stocks relative to the largest quintile of stocks, but the differences are small and insignificant. Moreover, the relation between momentum and size is not monotonic the middle size quintiles exhibit the greatest momentum. There are statistically significant differences in the returns and alphas of the long-only component of momentum across size quintiles. Long-only momentum is strongest among the smallest stocks and weakest among the largest stocks, though it is statistically and economically significant in each. However, the returns and alphas of long-only momentum do not decrease monotonically with size, remaining largest in size quintiles 2 through 4. As a percentage of total momentum profits, the long side contributes more than 100 percent of total profits in raw return space. That is, just like value, an investor not concerned with market risk should only go long winners and not short losers. However, adjusting for the market, the long side of a momentum strategy contributes more to its profitability among small stocks than large stocks. The long side contributes 72.1 percent of profits among small cap momentum and only 38.7% among large cap momentum. This is the opposite pattern exhibited by value. The importance of shorting for momentum strategies declines as firm size gets smaller. From an implementation perspective this is good news since shorting small, losing stocks should be particularly difficult and expensive. Hence, momentum has the nice feature that shorting losers becomes less important as firm size declines. The results for momentum seem at odds with those in Hong, Lim, and Stein (1999) and Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004) who claim that momentum profits are stronger among small stocks 12

13 and that shorting contributes more to momentum profits than the long side (about two-thirds of profits), particularly among small cap stocks. We find no discernable differences in momentum profits across size groups and find that the importance of shorting for momentum declines rather than increases for small stocks. The key differences in our findings are primarily driven by sample period differences. HLS examine returns from 1980 to 1996 and GM from 1963 to We examine returns from 1926 to 2009 (1927 to 2009 for momentum). As we show in the appendix, when we look over the same time period as these other studies, we find results consistent with their conclusions. These results, however, are not borne out in other time periods out of sample. Looking over our entire sample period or out of sample from these studies, we find no statistical or economic evidence that the long and short side profits of a momentum strategy are different and no reliable differences in momentum returns across firm size groups. Figure 2 summarizes our findings by plotting the 5-1 quintile spread in alphas for value and momentum across the size quintiles, with the contribution from the long and short sides highlighted on the graph. The long side is the alpha of quintile 5 and the short side is the negative of the alpha of quintile 1. The top figure reports results for value-weighted portfolios and the bottom figure for equal-weighted portfolios. There is no discernable pattern in momentum returns across size quintiles, even for equal weighted portfolios, but a markedly declining value premium as size increases. Shorting contributes about one-third of momentum profits among small caps, about half of momentum among the middle size quintiles, and about 60 percent among the largest stocks. For value strategies, shorting comprises a little more than half of the premium in small caps for value weighted portfolios and about a third for equal weighted portfolios, with the importance of shorting declining as firm size increases. Since the premium for value also declines as firm size increases, the decline in the importance of shorting for a value strategy coincides with a lower value premium. The patterns are similar for equal-weighted portfolios, except that a significant value premium now resides in every size quintile. The value premium declines with firm size, but there is no evidence that the momentum premium declines with firm size. In fact, the smallest size quintile exhibits the lowest momentum returns among equal-weighted portfolios. IV. The Impact of Time In this section we examine the returns to size, value, and momentum over time and how the contribution to profits from the long and short side varies over time. 13

14 Figure 3 plots the CAPM alphas of value-weighted portfolios for value and momentum strategies within size quintiles over four subperiods: July 1926 (January 1927 for momentum) to December 1949, January 1950 to December 1969, January 1970 to December 1989, and January 1990 to December The momentum premium is strong in every subperiod and all size quintiles, including the most recent twenty years of data following the initial discovery and publication of the momentum effect in the early 1990s. (This is consistent with the out of sample evidence on the robustness of momentum profits found in Jegadeesh and Titman (2001, 2005), Fama and French (2008, 2011), and Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010)). There are, however, some differences in the magnitude of the momentum premium across size quintiles over time. In the two most recent periods momentum is stronger among small stocks. In the two earlier subperiods there is no discernable relation between momentum profits and size. The subperiod results help rectify the discrepancy between our earlier finding that momentum profits are largely unaffected by size over the entire sample period and the results from other studies, such as Hong, Lim, and Stein (1999) and Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004), that momentum profits decline with firm size. Table A2 in the appendix reports momentum profits across size quintiles over the specific sample periods used in Hong, Lim, and Stein (1999) 1980 to 1996 and Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004) 1963 to 1999 as well as the sample that excludes these subperiods (1927 to 1962; 2000 to 2009). Three results are noteworthy. First, the decline in momentum profits as size increases is specific to the samples used in those papers, particularly the Hong, Lim, and Stein (1999) sample from 1980 to Out of sample evidence of a relation between size and momentum is nonexistent. Second, even within the subsamples where there is a size-momentum interaction, it appears only driven by the short side. In both the Hong, Lim, and Stein (1999) and Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004) subsamples, there is no reliable difference in long-only momentum profits across size quintiles. This finding is also consistent with Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004). 8 Third, the contribution to momentum profits from shorting is more important only in the specific subsamples used in these papers. Consistent with Hong, Lim, and Stein (1999) and Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004), we find shorting is more important to momentum profits over their specific samples. However, outside of these periods we do not find any evidence that shorting is more important for momentum profitability, except perhaps among the largest quintile of stocks. The lack of a significant size influence on momentum over our entire sample period (1927 to 2009) is not just driven by the first half of our sample either. As Table A2 reports, if we just remove 8 Fama and French (2010) also find stronger momentum profits among small cap stocks in international data over the 1990 to 2009 time period. 14

15 the Hong, Lim, and Stein (1999) sample (1980 to 1996) from the post-1963 data, we also fail to find an interaction between size and total momentum profits. Moreover, there is no evidence that shorting matters more across size quintiles either. In fact, the only discernable difference across the size quintiles is that long-only momentum is stronger among small stocks. In addition, the introduction of AMEX and NASDAQ stocks to the CRSP universe in 1963 and 1973, respectively, that effectively introduces a large set of much smaller firms into the sample, is not responsible for these results. In the first half of our sample the universe of stocks is exclusively from the NYSE, and if we separate out NYSE stocks from AMEX/NASDAQ stocks post-1963, we find similar effects (see Table A1). (The use of NYSE breakpoints for the construction of our portfolios should mitigate the effect of AMEX and NASDAQ stocks in the sample as well.) The most reasonable explanation is that the size-momentum interaction found previously was due to chance and not robust out of sample. Turning to value sorted portfolios, Figure 3 shows there is a stronger value premium among small and mirco cap stocks in every subperiod, consistent with the previous literature (Fama and French (1993, 1996, 2008) and Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004)). Moreover, we find no reliable value premium among large cap stocks in three of the four subperiods. The largest two size quintiles only exhibit a significant value premium in the period from 1970 to One possible reason for the poor showing of large cap value in the early part of the century is that book values of equity, which are obtained from Moody's, are estimated less precisely than book values in the latter part of the sample, which come from Compustat. This, however, cannot explain why large cap value does not exhibit much of a premium in the 1990 to 2009 period nor why small cap value does well in the early part of the sample. Aside from the largest stocks, there is a robust value premium in the other size quintiles over time. 9 Table A2 in the appendix also shows evidence of a consistently stronger value premium among small cap stocks and a negligible value premium among the largest two size quintiles that is robust across subsamples. Both within the samples used by Hong, Lim, and Stein (1999) and Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2004), as well as outside of those sample periods, there is a clear size-value interaction where value returns get weaker as size increases and are nonexistent among the largest two size quintiles. One other noteworthy result is that the size-value interaction is mostly driven by the short side there are no reliable differences across size quintiles in terms of long-only value returns. The contribution to value and momentum profits from long and short positions exhibit some variation over time. For instance, during the 1970 to 2009 time period, momentum profits seem to 9 Other value measures besides book-to-market equity, such as earnings-to-price or cash flow-to-price, may deliver return premia among large cap stocks. 15

16 come more from the short side than the long side, but it varies randomly across size quintiles. The reverse occurs in the first half of the sample more of momentum profits seem to come from the long side, with again some variation across the size groups. These patterns appear consistent with random variation. Overall, we do not find that shorting is more important for momentum over our entire sample period and do not find any consistent patterns across size quintiles or subperiods consistent with this notion. The only significant pattern we detect is that shorting losers becomes a larger part of momentum profitability as size increases. This pattern holds in three of the four subperiods, though it is not particularly strong, and statistical tests cannot differentiate between long and short profitability. For value, we also see a time-consistent interaction between the importance of shorting and firm size. In every subperiod, shorting becomes more important for a value strategy as size decreases, and the returns to value also rise as size declines. V. International and Other Asset Class Evidence For further robustness on the importance of shorting, we also examine the value and momentum portfolios of Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010) in international equity markets and other asset classes. The data span the January 1972 to December 2009 time period, with some variation in starting dates for some markets and asset classes. Here, we do not examine time variation in the returns to value and momentum because of the short sample period nor the role of firm size because size has no meaning in some asset classes (e.g., currencies or commodities). Table 4 reports the alphas (over the local market index 10 ) of return differences between the top and bottom third of value and momentum sorted portfolios from Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010) as described in Section I. Alphas are calculated relative to the relevant MSCI index for each local market for the individual stock strategies in the U.S., U.K., Europe, and Japan and are calculated relative to an equal-weighted average of all securities in each asset class for the other asset classes. The t-statistics of the alphas, the alpha of the long side only (portfolio 3) and its t-statistic and the percentage of 3-1 total profits coming from the long side are reported. We also report the t- statistic for whether the long side and short side contribution to profits are significantly different from each other. Panel A of Table 4 reports results for the individual stock strategies and Panel B of Table 4 reports results for the other asset classes. 10 The "market" index for stocks is the value weighted index of all stocks in that region from MSCI. For all other asset classes it is the equal weighted average of all securities in that asset class. 16

17 Beginning with the international stock data in Panel of A of Table 4, we see that value and momentum premia are robust across international equity markets. These results are identical to thsoe in Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010) and consistent with those in Fama and French (2010). The only exceptions seem to be the lack of a value premium in the U.K. and the lack of a momentum premium in Japan. Both exhibit positive profits, but are statistically insignificant. 11 The lack of significance of value in the U.K. and momentum in Japan is perfectly consistent with random chance. 12 Long-only value portfolios exhibit positive and significant alphas in every region (including the U.K.) and long-only momentum portfolios produce positive alphas in every region that are also statistically significant, except for Japan. We also report results for global average portfolios, where we weight each market by the inverse of its full sample volatility (standard deviation of returns) so that each market contributes an equal amount to total ex post volatility. 13 The global portfolios exhibit strong value and momentum effects in both long-short and long-only contexts. Examining the percentage of value and momentum profits that come from the long side, we find that slightly more of the value profits come from the long side (on average about two-thirds of profits), and more than half of momentum's profits come from the long side (on average 56 percent). Statistically, we can reject that value profits are split evenly between the long and short sides, but we cannot reject that the long and short sides of momentum contribute equally. Hence, a contribution from long and short positions seems to accurately reflect the composition of momentum profits across all markets and asset classes. This is consistent with our earlier results for U.S. stock portfolios over the longer time period. Panel B of Table 4 shows consistent value and momentum premia across diverse asset classes as in Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010) for both long-short and long-only portfolios. Consistent with our previous results, we find that the contribution from the long side for value is about 60 percent and reliably different from 50 percent, and the contribution from the long side for momentum 11 Fama and French (2010) do find a robust value premium in the U.K. among smaller stocks. Since the Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010) portfolios use primarily large-cap stocks and are value-weighted, the value premium is weaker. 12 Asness (2011) argues that there is evidence of momentum in Japan when evaluating momentum relative to a value strategy. As Asness (2011) and Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2010) argue the strong negative correlation between value and momentum and strong performance of value in Japan makes momentum returns in Japan look weak when viewed on a stand-alone basis. 13 This is done because different markets and asset classes have widely varying volatility. For the international stock portfolios we examine, this turns out not to matter. But for other asset classes it matters a lot since volatility varies substantially across asset classes. (For example, the volatility of commodities and equities is about 7 times that of fixed income instruments and about 5 times that of currencies). 17

18 is about 50 percent. Figure 4 summarizes these findings by plotting the alphas of value and momentum portfolios across markets and asset classes, highlighting the contribution from the long and short sides of each strategy the patterns are consistent with our earlier results for U.S. equity portfolios. VI. Conclusion We examine the role of shorting, firm size, and time on size, value, and momentum strategies over the last century in U.S. data and over the last four decades in international markets and other asset classes. We find that the returns to value decrease with size over our sample period and are insignificant for the largest stocks. Momentum premia are present in every size group and do not vary reliably across size groups. We find no consistent evidence that momentum returns decrease with firm size as suggested by the literature. We find that a little more than half of value profits come from the long side and about half of momentum profits come from the long side. The contribution of long versus short positions varies somewhat with firm size. Short selling profits become more important for momentum strategies and less important for value strategies as size increases, and become less important for momentum and more important for value as size decreases. These patterns are generally consistent over time. Examining value and momentum strategies in other markets and asset classes, we find consistent results on the contribution of long and short positions to profits slightly more than half of value and half of momentum profits come from the long side. We find no evidence to support the claim that momentum strategy profits are dominated by short selling. Finally, long-only versions of value and momentum consistently yield positive alphas across size groups, across markets and asset classes, and across time. The premium for momentum appears to be consistently higher than that of value, especially among large cap stocks where the value premium is weakest. These results have implications for understanding the nature of size, value, and momentum return premia and for implementing size, value, and momentum portfolios in practice. 18

DOES IT PAY TO HAVE FAT TAILS? EXAMINING KURTOSIS AND THE CROSS-SECTION OF STOCK RETURNS By Benjamin M. Blau 1, Abdullah Masud 2, and Ryan J. Whitby 3 Abstract: Xiong and Idzorek (2011) show that extremely

EVALUATION OF THE PAIRS TRADING STRATEGY IN THE CANADIAN MARKET By Doris Siy-Yap PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Approval

Absolute Strength: Exploring Momentum in Stock Returns Huseyin Gulen Krannert School of Management Purdue University Ralitsa Petkova Weatherhead School of Management Case Western Reserve University March

Value versus Growth in the UK Stock Market, 1955 to 2000 Elroy Dimson London Business School Stefan Nagel London Business School Garrett Quigley Dimensional Fund Advisors May 2001 Work in progress Preliminary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We find persistent performance disparities when comparing three leading benchmarks for U.S. small cap equity, with the MSCI U.S. Small Cap 1750 and the S&P Small Cap 600 outperforming

The performance of the S&P Global Luxury Index compared to the MSCI World Index, during the financial crisis. An analysis of 80 luxury goods companies around the world Name: Laura van Ballegooijen Student

Utah State University DigitalCommons@USU All Graduate Plan B and other Reports Graduate Studies 3-2014 Optimal Debt-to-Equity Ratios and Stock Returns Courtney D. Winn Utah State University Follow this

Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 2/2005 49 Industry Affects Do Not Explain Momentum in Canadian Stock Returns Sean Cleary, David Doucette, John Schmitz Abstract Similar to previous Canadian,

Momentum and Autocorrelation in Stock Returns Jonathan Lewellen MIT Sloan School of Management This article studies momentum in stock returns, focusing on the role of industry, size, and book-to-market

The Quality Dimension of Value Investing Robert Novy-Marx Robert Novy-Marx is assistant professor of finance at the Simon Graduate School of Business at the University of Rochester, New York, and a faculty

THE NUMBER OF TRADES AND STOCK RETURNS Yi Tang * and An Yan Current version: March 2013 Abstract In the paper, we study the predictive power of number of weekly trades on ex-post stock returns. A higher

CAN INVESTORS PROFIT FROM THE PROPHETS? CONSENSUS ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS AND STOCK RETURNS Brad Barber Graduate School of Management University of California, Davis Reuven Lehavy Haas School of Business

Chapter 5 Conditional CAPM 5.1 Conditional CAPM: Theory 5.1.1 Risk According to the CAPM The CAPM is not a perfect model of expected returns. In the 40+ years of its history, many systematic deviations

Volatility and Premiums in US Equity Returns Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French * Understanding volatility is crucial for informed investment decisions. This paper explores the volatility of the market,

Nelson Lacey (USA), Qiang Bu (USA) Market sentiment and mutual fund trading strategies Abstract Based on a sample of the US equity, this paper investigates the performance of both follow-the-leader (momentum)

The Enterprise Multiple Factor and the Value Premium Tim Loughran Mendoza College of Business University of Notre Dame Notre Dame, IN 46556-5646 (574) 631-8432 voice loughran.9@nd.edu Jay W. Wellman School

WORKING PAPER Dividends and Momentum Owain ap Gwilym, Andrew Clare, James Seaton & Stephen Thomas October 2008 ISSN Centre for Asset Management Research Cass Business School City University 106 Bunhill

Fama-French and Small Company Cost of Equity Calculations This article appeared in the March 1997 issue of Business Valuation Review. Michael Annin, CFA Senior Consultant Ibbotson Associates 225 N. Michigan

The Value of Active Mutual Fund Management: An Examination of the Stockholdings and Trades of Fund Managers * Hsiu-Lang Chen The University of Illinois at Chicago Telephone: 1-312-355-1024 Narasimhan Jegadeesh

Exchange Risk versus the Value Factor In International Asset Pricing Hong Wu Division of Economics and Finance College of Business & Economics West Virginia University Morgantown, WV 26506-6025 hwu3@wvu.edu

Previously Published Works UCLA A University of California author or department has made this article openly available. Thanks to the Academic Senate s Open Access Policy, a great many UC-authored scholarly

Belen Blanco (Spain) The use of CAPM and Fama and French Three Factor Model: portfolios selection Abstract This work tests the American NYSE market, the expected returns of a portfolios selection according

Market Efficiency and Behavioral Finance Chapter 12 Market Efficiency if stock prices reflect firm performance, should we be able to predict them? if prices were to be predictable, that would create the

ABSTRACT The pricing of China Region ETFs - an empirical analysis Yao Zheng University of New Orleans Eric Osmer University of New Orleans Using a sample of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on investing

Asymmetric Volatility and the Cross-Section of Returns: Is Implied Market Volatility a Risk Factor? R. Jared Delisle James S. Doran David R. Peterson Florida State University Draft: June 6, 2009 Acknowledgements:

New Evidence on the Applicability of Fama and French Three-Factor Model to the Japanese Stock Market. Elhaj Mabrouk Walid * Elhaj Mohamed Ahlem ** Abstract: This paper investigates the applicability of

Online Appendix for On the determinants of pairs trading profitability October 2014 Table 1 gives an overview of selected data sets used in the study. The appendix then shows that the future earnings surprises

Why Does the Change in Shares Predict Stock Returns? William R. Nelson 1 Federal Reserve Board January 1999 ABSTRACT The stock of firms that issue equity has, on average, performed poorly in subsequent

CLIFFORD ASNESS is a founding and managing principal at AQR Capital Management in Greenwich, CT. cliff.asness@aqr.com ANDREA FRAZZINI is a vice president at AQR Capital Management in Greenwich, CT. andrea.frazzini@aqr.com

Asset Pricing when Traders Sell Extreme Winners and Losers Li An November 27, 2014 Abstract This study investigates the asset pricing implications of a newly-documented refinement of the disposition effect,

The Performance of Small Cap Mutual Funds: Evidence for the UK Roger Otten Maastricht University and Philips Pension Fund Abstract Martin Reijnders Maastricht University This paper investigates the performance

: The Impact of Regression Weighting Jose Menchero and Zoltán Nagy Jose.Menchero@ Zoltan.Nagy@ Introduction Factor portfolios are long short portfolios that have a unit exposure to a selected style factor

Momentum in the UK Stock Market By Mark T Hon and Ian Tonks DISCUSSION PAPER 405 February 2002 FINANCIAL MARKETS GROUP AN ESRC RESEARCH CENTRE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS Any opinions expressed are those

P a g e 1 THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL VERSUS THE THREE FACTOR MODEL: A United Kingdom Perspective Chandra Shekhar Bhatnagar Department of Social Sciences, The University of the West Indies, Trinidad

April 2016 Staying the Course in Value Investing EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2015, growth stocks in the United States and around the world outperformed value stocks by one of the widest margins since the global

Pursuing a Better Investment Experience Last updated: March 2015 1. Embrace Market Pricing World Equity Trading in 2014 Daily Average Number of Trades 60 million Dollar Volume $302 billion The market is

What drives stock return commonalities? Evidence from France and US using a cross-sectional approach July 11, 2011 J.J. Lilti a,1 and G. Mero b a University of Rennes 1, Center of Research in Economics