Pac-12 football: Updated bowl projections

Major developments on top with Oregon and fair-to-middling developments on the bottom with Utah.

The Ducks are big USC fans this week: They need the Barkley-less Trojans to beat Notre Dame and open a spot in the National Championship Game.

But even if Oregon doesn’t reach the NCG, it would be an attractive BCS at-large candidate at 11-1. (More on that below.)

Meanwhile, Utah’s loss (at home) to Arizona eliminated the Utes from the postseason – another reminder that the Pac-12 isn’t the MWC — and means the conference will have eight eligible teams.

That’s eight teams for seven contracted bowls.

The following projections are based on three assumptions (because I have to assume something): Stanford beats UCLA twice and wins the conference; Oregon wins the Civil War; and Arizona wins the Territorial Cup.

UCLA’s situation complicates matters: The Bruins, who have clinched the South, are much more attractive if they beat Stanford on Saturday than if they lose to the Cardinal twice in six days (which is the assumed scenario here: I think Stanford will find a way to win this week and then finish things off at home in the title game).

*** StanfordBowl: RoseComment: The at-large path to the Rose remains a realistic option if Oregon climbs back into the NCG and Stanford doesn’t win the league. (I can’t envision a scenario in which the Cardinal returns to the Fiesta, which would have the option to take Oregon/Oregon State over the Cardinal a three-loss repeater.)

*** OregonBowl: FiestaComment: The Fiesta has first pick once the anchor teams (i.e., NCG participants) are replaced and would love one-loss/top 10 Oregon.

*** Oregon StateBowl: AlamoComment: Again, my model assumes two losses for the Bruins, which could prompt the Alamo to select nine-win OSU over the L.A. schools and their why-would-we-go-to-San Antonio-at-the-holidays fans. (If the Trojans beat Notre Dame, the picture changes.)

*** USCBowl: HolidayComment: Conference rules allow bowls to pass over Team X in favor of Team Y if there is a one-loss difference in conference records. Hence the Holiday bypasses UCLA for the Trojans.

*** WashingtonBowl: SunComment: Strong finish, large fan base and 10 years since their last appearance in El Paso make the Huskies extremely attractive.

*** UCLABowl: Las VegasComment: The Bruins have a great chance to win one of their last two and land in a more prestigious bowl than the Sun. (In the not-unreasonable event that they beat Stanford on the 24th and then lose the conference title game, the Alamo or Holiday would be a good bet.) But if they drop two in six days – as I’m assuming here – then they’re damaged goods.