Wednesday, May 31, 2017

There has been very slow progress since the last phase of
the Mosul Battle began four days ago. Zinjali has been the only neighborhood
where constant advances have been reported. A military school run by the
Islamic State was captured.
Army officers told Agence
France Presse that things were moving very slowly in Shifa where there are
several hospitals the Iraqi forces (ISF) were not trying to destroy. As usual,
the insurgents are relying upon small units to carry out hit and run tactics. They
fire upon the ISF and then move onto another position. During the day they
launched two counterattacks, one in Bab
al-Tob in the Old City, and another in Hawi
Kanisa, which is a liberated area of west Mosul. Iraqi officials and
members of the ISF were talking about expelling IS from the city in just a few
days. That is probably overly optimistic as most Iraqi announcements are.

Monday, May 29, 2017

The third day of the last phase of the Battle for Mosul saw
fighting on all fronts, with limited progress. The Federal Police moved 100
more meters into Zinjali
for a total of 400 meters. Most of the Islamic State fighters in the
neighborhood were said to have retreated
to the Old City. There was continued clashes in that district and Saha where reinforcements
were sent in. The Iraqi air force once again leafletted
the city telling people to flee through safe corridors set up by the Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF). Originally, the government told the population to stay within the
city because neither it nor aid agencies had the capacity to deal with them.
That greatly complicated the battle and has led to huge casualties. Baghdad has
finally changed tact and is now telling citizens to leave to make way for the
ISF.

The second day of the new push on west Mosul brought mixed
successes. The Golden Division was said to be in
control of 70% of Saha, the Rapid Reaction Division and Federal Police 60% of
Zinjali. Other reports however had the police only 300 meters into Zinjali.
The Islamic State also set another ambush for the
Iraqi forces in the medical center in Saha. On May 27 the center was taken, but
during the night IS counter attacked and drove the Iraqi forces (ISF) out. The
Ibn Sina Hospital in the center was set on fire,
and 12 civilians executed inside by the militants. 13 ISF were killed during
the fighting. The ISF command wants
to capture these neighborhoods along with Shifa in the next 72 hours and then
move onto the Old City, the largest district still under insurgent control. Not
to be out done, the Golden Division spokesman predicted
that all of Mosul would be liberated in just a few days. Iraqi propaganda is known
for its exaggeration. IS defenses in the Old City successfully held off the
police for several months and even a multi-pronged attack from several
directions is likely to be difficult.

Sunday, May 28, 2017

The last assault
on Mosul finally began. The Army’s 9th, 15th, and 16th
Divisions attacked the Shifa neighborhood. The Federal Police and Rapid
Reaction Division went into Zinjali, while the Golden Division attacked the
first Saha district. The Third Bridge across the Tigris River was reached, and
the Mosul
Hotel and Tamuz 17 were both
taken. This was the fourth time the latter was declared freed. A brigade and a
regimental commander in the 16th Division were killed
in the day’s fighting. General Abdul Ghani al-Asadi of the Golden Division
appeared on television stating
that the Islamic State had lost control of the situation. On the other hand, General
Haider Fadhil also of the Golden Division said
that resistance had not lessoned, and remained high. Other Iraqi and American
officers thought
this would be the toughest part of the entire operation. IS only controls roughly
five square miles of territory along the Tigris, but they have put up a
determined defense especially in the Old City, which held up the police for months.
The layout of the city in this area is especially dense and many streets are
too narrow for vehicles or tanks to traverse. There have been several reports
of the Iraqi forces having to fight floor to floor inside buildings. The
insurgents also have an extensive tunnel network and have dug holes in walls to
allow them to fire and maneuver without exposing themselves to air strikes.
It’s likely that this final phase will take a few weeks to conclude.

Saturday, May 27, 2017

Iraqi forces preparing for final assault on 4-7
neighborhoods Islamic State still controls in west Mosul (white area) (Ninewa
Media Cell)

No combat was reported in Mosul during the day. That was
because the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were gearing up for the final push on
the city. The Joint Operations Command told the press that the city would
fall in a few days. Even so, it warned that the fighting in the Old City would
be difficult because of the narrow streets forcing the ISF to move into the
district on foot. The ISF was also trying
to get civilians to leave the area. Coalition spokesman
Colonel Ryan Dillon wouldn’t give a timeline for how long the battle would
take, but didn’t think it would be over quickly like the Iraqis. Finally, Badr
head Hadi Amiri criticized
the Coalition for only giving token support and blamed it for Mosul not being
liberated yet. Iraqi announcements are always positive because of its victory
narrative. It wasn’t that long ago that they were claiming that the west Mosul
would be so much easier than the east because most of the Islamic State
fighters had fled. That didn’t happen. Amiri on the other hand is an ally of
Iran and always looks to denigrate the work of the Americans and its allies as
a result. Colonel Dillon was probably the most realistic. Mosul will fall, but
no one can be sure how long it will take.

Friday, May 26, 2017

More pictures taken from Niqash reporter returning to his
home in Mosul (Niqash)

There were clashes in west Mosul, but the Iraqi Security Forces
(ISF) were mostly preparing the for the next and final push to liberate the
entire city. The army and Federal Police were fighting
with the Islamic State in the Old City. The Federal Police were removing
barricades in that district to allow civilians to escape, and for supplies to brought
in for the ISF. Different units were moving into position for the next assault
on the city. The Islamic State holds around 4-7 neighborhoods along the Tigris
River. The Federal Police are in the south of that area, the Rapid Reaction
Division in the east, and the Golden Division to the west and north. Yesterday
reinforcements were arriving as well. The final phase of the battle will likely
start soon after the ISF resupplies and refits. The conclusion should take a
few weeks. Taking on the Old City will be the most difficult due to its dense
layout and IS’s defenses.

Thursday, May 25, 2017

The pace of operations in Mosul has lessened slightly after
the recent gains. Northwest Mosul was quickly freed after a new front was
opened by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Now there are just a few
neighborhoods left under Islamic State control along the Tigris River. The
Federal Police were fighting
in Tamuz 17 and the Old City district. The former was declared freed three
times before, but apparently still has Islamic State elements. Prime Minister
Haider Abadi also called
on the Golden Division to help take the rest of the city. Last week the unit
declared that it had accomplished all its goals in the campaign, but it never
stopped fighting. Reinforcements
have arrived as well to the Old City for the final push. There is a slight
pause in the offensive against the insurgents as the ISF consolidates its hold,
and reloads and rearms before they make their last drive.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) reached the Tigris River
yesterday, and now are pushing south towards the last areas of the city held by
the Islamic State. Depending upon
the source
there are either 5 or 7 neighborhoods left under Islamic State control. The Army’s
9th Division and 16th Divisions, the Golden Division, and
the Rapid Reaction Division all pushed
into the Shifa neighborhood, which the ISF claimed it freed back in March.
There was also fighting in Hawi Kanisa, which has been declared cleared of
insurgents twice before, and in the Old City. The army warned that taking the Old City the
largest section left could take longer than excepted. The deputy head of the
army’s 9th Brigade hoped that would be two weeks. Earlier the ISF
claimed they could finish operations before the start of Ramadan which is the
fourth week of May. That doesn't seem possible. The ISF also built a bridge
across the Tigris at the Hawi Kanisa neighborhood. That will be used to shift
forces from the east to west and allow civilians to escape. There’s no timeline
when offensive operations will restart to take the remaining districts, but it
probably won’t be long.

The liberation of all of Mosul is at hand. The Najar
area along the Tigris River was the latest to fall to the Iraqi Security Forces
(ISF). There was fighting going on in Rifai
as well. Colonel Patrick Work, commander of the 2nd Brigade, 82
Airborne Division, which is advising the Iraqi army in the battle warned
that as the last sections of the city were reached the fighting would reach a
crescendo. The ISF were building
a bridge across the Tigris to connect the east and west to allow people to flee
the conflict. Another span was already put up in the northern section of the
city for the same purpose. There are only four neighborhoods left in west Mosul
under Islamic State control. Iraqi generals and politicians are still talking
about freeing the city before Ramadan, which is only a few days away. That is
unlikely to happen, but the final date is still close at hand.

Monday, May 22, 2017

Latest map of west Mosul shows that the Iraqi forces are
clearing up neighborhoods along Tigris River (Ninewa Media Cell)

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are taking the last
neighborhoods of west Mosul. On May 20, Tamuz 17 was declared
fully cleared by the Federal Police. The ISF said it freed the neighborhood twicebefore.
Similarly Iqtisadin was liberated
for the thirdtime.
Rabia
was a new area taken from the insurgents as well. The next day there was
continued fighting
in Najar and Bab al-Sinjar was attacked by the Golden Division. The security
forces and Ninewa officials agree there are only a few parts of west Mosul left
under Islamic State control, but they disagree about which ones. The Golden Division
and Federal
Police told the press only four areas were left. They named the Old City,
Shifa, and Siha, but had different neighborhoods for the fourth either Bab
al-Sinjar or Zinjali. A member of the Ninewa security committee had the figure
at 7 neighborhoods,
but didn’t name them. Whatever the exact number is there are only a few left,
and the battle for the city is near its end.

There was another record low number of security incidents in
Iraq the first week of May 2017. Casualties on the other hand were about
average for the year.

There were just 105 incidents in Iraq from May 1-7, 2017.
That was the lowest recorded total for a full week since Musings On Iraq began
following security in 2013. By province there were 50 incidents in Ninewa, 22
in Baghdad, 8 in Anbar, 7 in Diyala, 6 in Salahaddin, 5 in Kirkuk, 3 in Babil
and Basra each, and 1 in Dohuk. The dip in attacks was due to a drop in
incidents in Ninewa. As the battle for the city is winding down there have been
fewer attacks reported.

Saturday, May 20, 2017

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) continued to push east and
south towards the Tigris River and the Old City district respectively. The Rawsahn
neighborhood was freed by the Golden Division, while the northern section of Tamuz
17 was brought under control. The problem with the latter is that the ISF
claimed to have liberated all of Tamuz 17 twicebefore.
The Iraqis are on the verge of taking Mosul, yet still exaggerate their gains.
The victory narrative pushed by Baghdad since 2014 seems to require positive news
be reported everyday both real and imagined.

Friday, May 19, 2017

The Iraqi forces are pushing down north towards the Old City
(grey section), which will be the last part of Mosul taken from the Islamic
State (Ninewa Media Cell)

The Golden Division announced that it attacked the Najar
region along the Tigris River in west Mosul. It claimed it had reached that
back on May
2 before the northern offensive had even begun, and then again on May 15. Too often the
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) get ahead of themselves and state that they have
reached or cleared an area before even being there, and this was another example.

Thursday, May 18, 2017

The Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF) were closing in on the last neighborhoods held by the Islamic
State in Mosul. The July 17, Iqtisadin, and Rifai areas were all liberated during the day. The July 17 was said to have
been freed on May 13, Iqtisadin on May 14, and Rifai on May 15. There was
fighting on going in Siha, Najar, Zinjali, Bab al-Tob, Mekawi and Bab al-Jadid. The militants only hold roughly 10% of the
city. The ISF routinely claim it has taken areas that are still contested or
sometimes before they even arrive. The battle for the city is nearly over, and these
places will eventually fall. The Iraqis can’t help themselves however from
overstating their progress. That is an unfortunate result of the victory
narrative the government has pushed since 2014.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were fighting over the areas
just north of the Old City district in west Mosul. The Federal Police claimed
they held 80% of Tamuz 17 and Iqtisadin. The former was declared freed on May
13, and the latter on May
14. The Iraqis often call areas cleared before they are. At the same time,
the Islamic State has constantly re-infiltrated places after they have left.

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

More progress was made in west Mosul. The Ureibi
and Rifai
neighborhoods were freed by the Golden Division, Najar was attacked, and
there was still fighting in the Tamuz
17 area. The Golden Division was reportedly in Najar by May
2, but may not have been near it, while Tamuz 17 was declared liberated on May
13. The Iraqi Forces (ISF) often get ahead of themselves in their
announcements claiming that places are cleared when they are not. At the same
time, the Islamic State has often re-infiltrated areas after they withdraw. The
territory under IS control is rapidly shrinking, and there are only a few
neighborhoods left until all of Mosul is freed.

Monday, May 15, 2017

Comparison of West Ninewa maps from 5/6/17 vs 5/14/17 shows
the quick advance the Iraqi forces have made since they attacked the northwest
sector (Ninewa Media Cell)

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are closing the noose on the
last areas of west Mosul held by the Islamic State. The Iqtisadin
neighborhood was freed, Ureibi
was attacked, and there was on going fighting in Bab al-Tob,
Farouq, Bab al-Jadid, Tamuz 17, and Zinjali. A
general from the Golden Division said that the insurgents were spent and
exhausted, while the Federal Police commander General Shakir Jawadat estimated
that the entire city would be freed by the end of May or the start of June at
the latest. That sounded like a more realistic timeframe than the army chief of
staff who talked about the end of the campaign in a few days to two weeks at
most. Iraqi statements are always full of propaganda, so they need to be taken
with a big grain of salt. What is undisputed is that the new attack upon
northwest Mosul has gained huge results and the area under IS control is
quickly shrinking.

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were moving ahead to capture
the last remaining area of west Mosul under Islamic State control. The Tamuz
17, Harmat 3, Idamat al-Tamas, and Hawi Kanisa
neighborhoods were all freed
by the Golden, Rapid Reaction Division, and 16th Divisions. The last
one for the second
time. The ISF were still pushing into Iqtisadin as well. The army chief of
staff is talking
about freeing all of Mosul before Ramadan, which is in two weeks. Some Ninewa
officials are skeptical of that timeline believing that the Old City section will
be a tough fight taking another month. Whatever the timeframe the Islamic State
on its last leg in the city.

Saturday, May 13, 2017

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are making their final push
to free west Mosul. The Harmat
2 and Islah
al-Zirahi 1 neighborhoods were freed. The Islah al-Zirah 2 neighborhood was
attacked, and there was still clashes going on in Iqtisadin and
the Old
City. Iraqi commanders are hoping that the battle for the city will be
finished in a few days. It will probably be a few weeks, but the end is in
sight.

Friday, May 12, 2017

The northern and southern fronts of the Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF) have now connected in west Mosul and are heading towards east. The
Hawi
Kanisa neighborhood was the latest to be freed. Mesherfa was declared liberated as
well after the last section was cleared on May 6. The next day fighting
was reported going on there. Islah
al-Zirahi was still under attack, and Iqtisadin
was entered as well. The Iraqi command said that the 9th
Division, which initiated the northern assault was done as its armor was not
suitable for the current street fights. Another army division, the 16th,
is now operating in the city joining the Golden Division and Interior Ministry
forces. Together they are aiming for the Tigris River. They will then take on
the Old City where the police got caught up in March, which caused the new
northern offensive.

Thursday, May 11, 2017

The Iraqi forces (ISF) moved further into northwest Mosul. On
May 9, the Tammuz
30 neighborhood was freed, while the Harmat 2 and 3, and July
17 areas were under attack. On May 10, Harmat
3 and Maamil
were liberated, and Islah al-Zirahi and Hawi Kanisa
were assaulted. General Mahdi Abbas Abdallah of the Rapid Reaction Division said
that Islamic State fighters were attempting to flee the city. On the other
hand, the Army Chief of Staff General Othman al-Ghanami predicted that the
Mosul campaign would be over before the start of Ramadan. Starting in March the
battle reached a turning point. While the Golden Division was pushing through
the center of West Mosul, the Interior Ministry’s forces were stuck in the Old
City with no real movement. That forced a change in strategy with the army’s 9th
Division backed by police units entering the northern section of the city. That
was supposed to happen much earlier, but the Iraqis still have problems
coordinating all their forces due to the multiple commands they operate under. The
Islamic State had no real defenses in the north allowing the new line of attack
to quickly advance. Now the north is largely freed and that front has connected
with the Golden Division that has taken the center. Together they are now
moving towards the Tigris River to take the last section of West Mosul in the
east. Mosul has been the most intense urban warfare the government forces have
faced, and it will be their largest victory as well when it’s all over.

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Today violence is down across most of Iraq. That’s due to
the Battle for Mosul, which has concentrated almost all of the death and
destruction to Ninewa. Many Islamic State fighters escaped the encirclement of
the city however, and the group still controls territory in western Anbar and
southern Kirkuk. The organization is also rebuilding in Diyala and Salahaddin. Despite
that, the number of security incidents is down in all provinces save Ninewa.

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Red areas show where Iraqi forces have recently moved into
in northern west Mosul (Ninewa Media)

The new thrust into northwest Mosul resulted in more
victories for the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). On May 7, Harmat
Thaniya, Tammuz
30 and Wadi
Akab were attacked, and there was a second day of fighting in the Tammuz
17 neighborhood with more in Harmat 1 and Mesherfa
that were freed the day before. The Islamic State often re-infiltrates into
areas, so that could be expected. On May 8, Wadi
Akab, Ghanem al-Sayid, and Shuqaq
al-Harmat were liberated, and Tammuz 17 was
still being fought over. More Iraqi units were being shifted from the center of
the city to the north to push the advance further. The two Tammuz neighborhoods
was where the Islamic State was constructing a defensive line
to confront this new line of attack. The insurgents have done most of their
fighting with small units. Those were all in the center of the city. This new
front spreads out IS’s forces, which is why the ISF have been able to move
forward so quickly.

Monday, May 8, 2017

The battle for Mosul is in its sixth month. It is proving to
be the most intense campaign of the entire war against the Islamic State in
Iraq. That’s in part because the insurgents have changed their defenses from
previous fights like in Fallujah and Ramadi. Recently the CTC Sentinel published
an article “Defeat
By Annihilation: Mobility And Attrition In The Islamic State’s Defense Of
Mosul” detailing how the militants have fought in the city. This is an
interview with one of the authors Alex Mello who is an Iraq security analyst at
Horizon Client Access. Musings On Iraq first
interviewed Mello back in 2014 about the deteriorating security situation
in Iraq. He can be followed on Twitter @AlexMello02.

Families taking boats across the Tigris from west to east
Mosul. Flooding has taken down the one pontoon bridge across the river in the
city (Reuters)

The new northern thrust into west Mosul paid more dividends.
The last section of the Mesherfa neighborhood was freed, along
with Kanisa
and Harmat 1. There were
reports of fighting going on in some of the recently liberated areas. That is
normal as the Islamic State often retreats and then re-infiltrates into a
sector of the city. On April
28, the chief of staff of the army General Osman al-Ghanami said that the
battle for Mosul would be over in three weeks. On May
6, he upped that to just a few days. This is common Iraqi propaganda. The
War Media Cell told the
press that the campaign was going according to plan and that losses had been
within expected limits. It went on to attack social media claiming that lies
and fabrications were being spread about the battle. The Iraqi military has
been increasingly defensive about any criticism of its work. The deputy head of
the security committee in parliament said that the Islamic
State’s defenses were broken in northwestern Mosul leading to a much quicker
advance. The new advance into northern Iraq has stretched the Islamic State’s
forces. For most of the fight it has relied upon relatively small units to hold
up the Iraqi forces. Now its forces are spread between both the center and
northern section of the city. The Iraqis could be making even faster progress
if they could coordinate better and attack along all fronts at the same time.
Right now all the movement is in the north and there is little going on in the
center and Old City in the east.

Saturday, May 6, 2017

Comparison of Mosul 5/4/17 vs 5/5/17 showing the new thrust
by the Iraqi forces into the northern section of the city (Ninewa Media)

The spokesman for the Iraqi Joint Operations Command General
Yahya Rasool told
the press that the new northern attack upon Mosul caught the Islamic State off
guard. The insurgents were not able to build adequate defenses, which has led
to a swift advance. This is being made by the 9th Division and units
from the Rapid Reaction Division and Federal Police. The police were fighting
in Harmat, which was declared
freed the day before. In the center of west Mosul, the Federal Police were also
pushing
into Zinjali by the Old City. The Iraqis originally claimed this new offensive
started on May 1, but that now appears to not have occurred and was another
example of Iraqi propaganda and exaggeration. The goal is to cut through the
north and reach the Tigris River. The northern front will then connect with the
Iraqi forces in the center, and then take the Old City at the end.

Friday, May 5, 2017

The New
York Times had a great article on the decision behind the new offensive in
northwest Mosul. In mid-April Prime Minister Haider Abadi held a conference
with his commanders in Hamam al-Alil. The premier argued that the operation was
dragging out, and that only benefited the Islamic State, therefore a change was
needed. The officers then debated who should be responsible for the new thrust,
since most of their forces had been involved in the fight since the start, and
had suffered heavy losses as a result. Two main issues were brought up. First,
was that the army had not taken part in any of the fighting in west Mosul, only
the Golden Division, Rapid Reaction Division, and Federal Police had. Second, some
believed the Federal Police were not holding up their responsibilities as they
have been stuck in the Old City for two months now. Finally, the decision was
made that the army’s 9th Division would attack the city from the
north. Previously it had been working with the Hashd’s Al-Abbas Division in
clearing the Badush district. After that was accomplished in April it simply
sat outside the city. The plan is to push into Mosul from the north and south
to spread out the Islamic State’s fighters. The Old City will be freed last. While
the Iraqis have improved, it seems that they still have work to do in
coordinating their forces. A lot of that has to do with the divided command the
Iraqi forces (ISF) fight under. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division
answer to the Interior Ministry, the army to the Defense Ministry, the Golden
Division is a separate entity, which is directly under the prime minister, and
the Hashd are a confederation of separate units. This caused problems in east
Mosul when the Golden Division was told to attack the city by itself because
the army hadn’t caught up, and then when it finally arrived, there was a lack
of cooperation initially. These issues still need to be worked out as the army
could have attacked Mosul long ago.

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com