Saturday, 15 April 2017

Action At Last

The decision by US President Donald Trump to launch an attack in
Syria following the recent chemical weapons attack has been widely
welcomed by Israelis. It is also a welcome change from the policy that
was pursued by the US during the presidency of Barack Obama. Finally,
the free world has a leader who is prepared to take action rather than
utter words.

Last Friday, President Trump really showed
what he is made of. Following the horrendous chemical weapons attack
that was carried out earlier last week by the forces of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad against his own people, Trump took a few days to
consider the situation and gather the required evidence before striking
in retaliation. The retaliation was not against a violation of any US
interest in particular. The retaliation was rather against the
violation of innocent women and children, and against the unacceptable
use of chemical weapons.

Over the past few years, the
world became used to the Obama style of doing things. Obama threatened,
but never made good on his threats. So, it comes as no surprise that
Assad gambled on the US not responding to this chemical attack. After
all, previous chemical attacks went unanswered. In fact, it was the
deal that was struck during Obama's presidency in 2013, that enabled
this chemical attack. When Obama discovered the extent of the stockpile
of Syria's chemical weapons, he decided to cut Assad some slack and
allow him a way to diplomatically and elegantly dispose of them. The
deal struck with Syria by negotiation between the USA and Russia
involved the dismantling of no fewer than 12 chemical weapons
productions facilities, numerous storage locations, a research and
development facility and the destruction of thousands of tons of
chemical agents.

But, under the noses of the international
supervisors, and with the tacit knowledge of Obama and other members of
the international community, Assad succeeded in retaining some of these
chemical weapons for himself. It was one of the worst-kept secrets in
the Middle East. The Israeli intelligence community believed that the
Assad government retained a "residual" chemical stockpile
of somewhere between several hundred kilograms to several tons of
chemical weapons, about 1% of its original stockpile. Obama's reaction
was fairly predictable. He turned a blind eye. Last week's Sarin
attack by Assad is the public evidence of Obama's failed policy.

In
taking action in the way that he did, Trump sent out a number of very
important messages. The first was a very clear message to Assad and his
army. This US president will not tolerate bully-boy tactics being
employed against innocent women and children, even if he is still in the
honeymoon period of his presidency. And he will not tolerate the use
of illegal chemical weapons, even if his predecessor was prepared to
turn a blind eye to this.

The second message was sent to
Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has been Assad's patron for a
number of years. Initially, this support was in the form of supplying
weapons and vetoing resolutions against Assad at the UN Security
Council. While this support has continued, it has also escalated to
include Russian boots on the ground in Syria and Russian warplanes in
Syrian air space. Even though Trump was determined to forge a closer
link with Putin when he first entered office, the message to Putin is
that everything has changed. Even Russian support, and the possibility
of damaging US relations with Russia will not prevent Trump from taking
action against Assad.

The third message was sent to
other rogue nations of the world, including Iran and North Korea. In a
similar way to how the deal with Syria was struck, Obama also struck a
deal with Iran. This deal involved nuclear weapons rather than Syria's
chemical weapons. The stakes were much higher, but the lack of backbone
on Obama's part was exactly the same. He decided to strike the deal
with Iran despite the obvious signs that Iran was pulling the wool over
the eyes of the countries signing the deal. Despite Obama's attempts to
placate Israel and other detractors of the agreement, its blaring
shortcomings were obvious to anybody with a mediocre understanding of
the situation. Trump, however, sends a completely different message.
He has started his time in office by questioning the logic of the deal
with Iran. And the attack against the Syrian forces sends an even
stronger message that Trump will not tolerate any deception or
aggression on the part of Iran, and also North Korea.

For
the Israeli government, the intervention is welcome. Israel is
typically a country for whom actions speak louder than words, even if
the actions are frequently very quietly done. It is inconceivable that the Jewish state could idly watch from the sidelines when chemicals are being used to kill innocent women and children. The memory of the world standing idly by and watching during the Holocaust is still too fresh in our minds. It is a great dilemma
about how to respond to a situation like the chemical attack in Syria.
On the one hand, Israel would wish to respond with force to the use of
chemical weapons. Doing so would, however, seemingly play into Syria's hands, and
immediately embroil Israel in the war in Syria. Given the history of
the two countries and the way in which friendships line up, this could
potentially involve Iran, Syria and the USA very quickly indeed. This
would escalate to a regional conflict, and perhaps even result in a
conflict that goes beyond the regional borders.

Trump's
strong message shows decisive leadership, and finally a
willingness to confront rogue states head-on. This is welcome. While
debates and condemnations at the UN and other forums may have their
place, action on the ground sends a much stronger and more serious
message. And his action also saved Israel from, once again, having to
respond in a way that will not result in a war involving multiple
countries.

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Being a person who holds strong views on many subjects, particularly on matters relating to Israel and the Middle East, this blog gives me the perfect forum to express my opinions. Feedback is always welcome.

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