Poll shows Warren is no sure bet for re-election next year

Sen. Elizabeth Warren may not have an easy path to reelection in 2018.

A poll released Monday shows that 46 percent of Massachusetts voters think it’s time for someone else to have a shot at the Senate.

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“It’s not a great place to start for her, but she still would be the favorite at this point,” said MassINC Polling Group President Steve Koczela, who conducted the poll with public radio station WBUR.

Fifty-one percent of the poll’s respondents approved of the first-term Democrat, while 37 disapproved.

While it’s still early to handicap the 2018 race, a relatively underwhelming field of potential Democratic primary challengers and Republican opponents means that while there is an opening to upset Warren, it is narrow.

“Low numbers don’t necessarily mean there’s an opening for just anyone to challenge her,” Koczela said. “Republicans who want someone different face the same challenge they always face: Who will challenge her?”

No Republican has officially announced a campaign, although retired Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling has made noise about a potential run. So has Rick Green, a wealthy businessman and founder of the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance, which has helped to bankroll attacks on Democrats since its founding in 2012.

The same can be said for the bench of would-be Democratic challengers.

U.S. Rep. Joe Kennedy had said he would be interested in Warren’s seat, but only if she doesn’t seek reelection. Kennedy has since said he plans to seek reelection to his House seat in 2018.

Baker, the country’s most popular governor, did better in the poll than Warren, with a 59 percent approval rating and an 18 percent disapproval rating.

Still, things can change.

“The election is still a long way away and it plays to both sides,” Koczela said.

The poll also showed that 79 percent of Massachusetts voters will look to their all-Democratic congressional delegation to work with Republicans to develop a replacement for the Affordable Care Act, while 15 percent say they believe Republicans should create a health care replacement of their own.