Gas price jump blamed on switching to 'summer blend'

Monday

Feb 4, 2013 at 11:01 PM

Douglas Jordan

Switch to summer grade of gas big reason for 14-cent hike last week

Gas prices have jumped locally by an average of 14 cents per gallon in the last week, and while gas prices are not expected to go up again at that rate anytime soon, they still are expected to continue climbing.

As of Monday, the average price for a gallon of gas in Florida was $3.56, according to GasBuddy.com, compared to a national average of $3.49. The average for the Jacksonville area - that includes St. Augustine - was $3.55.

"I know consumers get very frustrated when they hear explanations about why fuel prices go up," said Gregg Laskoski, senior petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.com, an organization that tracks gasoline prices at more than 140,000 gasoline stations in the United States and Canada. "But there are three major factors, and a lot of other smaller factors, that are behind this recent increase."

Laskoski said the biggest factor is that U.S. refineries are in the middle of their yearly "blending switch," reducing their inventory of winter blend gasoline and switching to summer blend fuel.

"The Environmental Protection Agency mandates them to sell a different blend of gasoline from May 1 to Sept. 30 every year," Laskoski said. "The summer blend contains additives to make it burn cleaner and reduce pollution, but it's more costly to produce. The refineries are also going through regular yearly maintenance, which adds to the cost as well."

Other factors contributing to the increase include a weak U.S. dollar abroad, unrest in the Middle East and a rise in crude oil prices, Laskoski said.

"But I would not expect to see this kind of rate to continue," he said. "Fuel will continue to go up in the coming months, but in much smaller increments."

AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins agrees.

"This is nothing to be alarmed about," Jenkins said. "This is the same thing that happens every year, and right now, we're 3 cents cheaper then we were this time last year."

But for Paula Sanders of St. Augustine Beach, who was filling the tank of her Honda Odyssey mini-van at A1A Discount Beverage on Anastasia Boulevard - where regular gas was going for $3.59 per gallon on Monday - the only thing that matters is that she has less of her paycheck to keep this week than she did last week.

"The prices were a lot lower before the election, I know that," she said. "This means I switch from mid-grade to regular for a while. But it doesn't affect me as much as my husband, who drives to and from Jacksonville every day."

Jenkins said the presidential elections had very little effect on fuel prices.

"This is a global economy, and who's in the White House doesn't have anywhere near as much to do with it as what's going on in the Middle East, and the fact that the dollar is down compared to the euro," he said. "The thing is, it's a huge variety of factors. And we've certainly seen worse, even a few years ago."

Jenkins said he's telling people not to get too excited about the recent increase, and to expect more smaller increases in the next few months. But he said he expects it will drop back down by next fall.

"What people always want to know is, will it hit $4 a gallon, will it hit $5 a gallon?" Jenkins said. "And the plain and simple bottom line is that nobody can say with any certainty."

When will gas prices go down again?

Gas prices go up and down in predictable patterns. For example, the national average for gas prices in February has increased nine out of the previous ten years, said Mark Jenkins, AAA spokesman.

He expects prices to rise steadily through April or May as the switch to summer-blend gasoline continues and with an increase in demand this spring.

Jenkins said the pattern for gas prices in coming months should mirror what happened last year.

"In 2012, what we saw was that gas prices started rising on Jan. 1," Jenkins said. "That continued in increments over the next few months, maxing out in April at $3.94 per gallon. Then they started going back down again.

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