(A Committee of Correspondence)

Entries categorized "Iran"

03 March 2015

"The biggest offensive against ISIS so far happened without American help—but with plenty of assistance from Iran.

The Iraqi military launched a major campaign to take back a key city from the self-proclaimed Islamic State over the weekend—a move that caught the U.S. “by surprise,” in the words of one American government official.

The U.S.-led coalition forces that have conducted seven months of airstrikes on Iraq’s behalf did not participate in the attack, defense officials told The Daily Beast, and the American military has no plans to chip in.

Instead, embedded Iranian advisers and Iranian-backed Shiite militias are taking part in the offensive on the largely Sunni town, raising the prospect that the fight to beat back ISIS could become a sectarian war.

The news is the latest indication that not all is well with the American effort against the terror group. On Friday, U.S. defense officials told The Daily Beast that a planned offensive against the ISIS stronghold of Mosul had been indefinitely postponed. " Daily Beast

Apparently, there is no US coalition air power involved in this effort to re-conquer Salah al Din Province and the city of Tikrit. Many will doubt that Baghdad did not inform the US of this effort but I see no reason to doubt that datum. Iran is the Shia government of Iraq's natural ally, not the US. The US now objects to oppression of the Sunni Arabs by the government and by the Shia militias aligned with the government. This makes no sense to the Shia. For them, an enemy is an enemy, period, end of story.

At the same time the openly heralded offensive to Mosul several hundred miles beyond Tikrit has been postponed "indefinitely." IMO this represents a prudent worry on the part of the Iraqis and their Iranian advisers that (as I observed in an earlier post ) such a deep thrust would carry a great risk of reversal beyond the point of culmination of the drive.

It is a good idea from the Shia point of view to run a "test" of their ability t campaign to the north. Let us see if they can do that. pl

02 March 2015

"The southern offensive has been ongoing for over a month. The insurgents went from Jordan along the Golan up to the Lebanese border under cover of Israeli artillery. Whenever they were attacked by the Syrian army they fired a mortar into Israel proper and the Israeli army responded by shelling the Syrian army because, it said, it is the Syrian army's responsibility to keep everything calm. Nice logic ... The move is now into the direction of Damascus but a Syrian counteroffensive is planned and will soon start. These insurgents and all the fighting have been led by al-Nusra while all official mentioning, like in that Reuters piece, claims it is an FSA offensive. It is not. Al-Nusra is clearly in the lead." b - 14 November, 2014 on SST

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"In early February, an alliance of Iran, the Syrian regime, and Hezbollah launched a major military offensive against rebel groups in Syria's south, close to the borders of Israel and Jordan. This campaign bears potential strategic consequences for Israel and the Syrian theater, and calls for close U.S. and international attention.

Some 4,000-5,000 troops have been massed for the offensive, which focuses on the provinces of Deraa, bordering Jordan, and Quneitra, bordering the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. Combatants include units from the Syrian army; the National Defense Forces, a government militia; an estimated 2,000 Hezbollah fighters, constituting a sizable portion of the group's forces in Syria; and, notably, Iranian military elements including advisors and senior officers. A website close to the Syrian regime posted a photo of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force, visiting the area, signaling its importance to Iran.

28 February 2015

"AIPAC prepared a detailed presentation that was given to Netanyahu with all the negative repercussions they believe would result from the controversial invitation to Congress and the cumulative damage. On Feb. 25 behind closed doors, one of the heads of AIPAC said, to paraphrase: All the things we warned him of, are materializing. We foresaw the domino effect that took place, the boycott by more and more Democratic Congress members, the significant deterioration in relations with Democratic legislators, the talks about boycotting the AIPAC convention (that is also being held at the beginning of March) by the administration. We protested, we warned. And who wasn't impressed? Netanyahu. He’s coming.

In anticipation of the speech, the sides have been increasing the stakes on an almost daily basis. First, National Security Advisor Susan Rice said Feb. 24 that Netanyahu’s speech is “destructive to the fabric of the relationship” between the two countries. She added, “The relationship between the US and Israel has always been bipartisan and we have been fortunate that politics have not been injected into this relationship. But what has happened over the last several weeks … is that on both sides there have been injected some degree of partisanship.”" Al-Monitor

AIPAC thinks that the speech to Congress in defiance of the president is a bad idea? Really? If that is so, then who, pilgrims, thinks it a good idea? Is it Derner, the former American who is now Israeli ambassador in Washington? Is it Bonehead, errr Boehner? This man can't get his own caucus to vote to fund DHS. Is it the WAR PARTY among the menagerie of Rotary Club strategists, xenophobes (except for Israelis) and primitive Saracen haters that now seem to be the Republican Base? Is there any doubt that Israel's political position will be damaged by the arrogance and contempt displayed for American government in this adventure? pl

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"“What the president objects to is not that Mr. Netanyahu will speak to Congress, but the content of what he intends to say,” Dershowitz argues, dismissing protocol objections by noting that “President Obama sent British Prime Minister David Cameron to lobby Congress with phone calls last month against conditionally imposing new sanctions on Iran if the deal were to fail.” He adds that Congress has full constitutional authority to participate in foreign policy and invite speakers.

Dershowitz has harsh words for those Democrats–fewer than two dozen–who are planning to boycott the speech.

“As a liberal Democrat who twice campaigned for President Barack Obama, I am appalled,” he declares, warning that they are turning Israel into a partisan issue. “This will not only hurt Israel but will also endanger support for Democrats among pro-Israel voters. I certainly would never vote for or support a member of Congress who walked out on Israel’s prime minister.”

Dershowitz has twice endorsed Obama for president, but has also warned repeatedly that Obama could become America’s version of Neville Chamberlain if he allowed Iran to become a nuclear power.

Obama’s promise to prevent that “seems to be in the process of being broken,” Dershowitz notes, “as reports in the media and Congress circulate that the deal on the table contains a sunset provision that would allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons after a certain number of years." Breitbart

IMO Dershowitz is a rational man until what he sees as Israel's interest is involved, then he begins to threaten and snarl at those who on any other issue would be his "friends."

He threatens the president of the United States and members of Congress over the interests of a foreign country?

It appears that for him Israel is not a foreign country. pl

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"Genêt's goals in South Carolina were to recruit and arm American privateers who would join French expeditions against the British. He commissioned four privateering ships in total, including the Republicaine, the Anti-George, the Sans-Culotte, and the Citizen Genêt. Working with French consul Michel Ange Bernard Mangourit, Genêt organized American volunteers to fight Britain's Spanish allies in Florida. After raising a militia, Genêt set sail toward Philadelphia, stopping along the way to marshal support for the French cause and arriving on May 18. He encouraged Democratic-Republican societies, but President Washington denounced them and they quickly withered away.

His actions endangered American neutrality in the war between France and Britain, which Washington had pointedly declared in his Neutrality Proclamation of April 22. When Genêt met with Washington, he asked for what amounted to a suspension of American neutrality. When turned down by Secretary of StateThomas Jefferson and informed that his actions were unacceptable, Genêt protested. Meanwhile, Genet's privateers were capturing British ships, and his militia was preparing to move against the Spanish.

Genêt continued to defy the wishes of the United States government, capturing British ships and rearming them as privateers. Washington sent Genet an 8,000-word letter of complaint on Jefferson's and Hamilton's advice " Wiki on Genet

It has been a long time since a foreign political leader or ambassador attempted to seize control of American foreign policy on behalf of his own government's desires. In Genet's time even the Francophiles like Jefferson rejected foreign interference in our affairs. Today, the Zionist 5th column advances the foreign leader's agenda. pl

30 January 2015

"The basic problem is that our policies regarding Iran are not fully aligned. That is a product of many things, including that Israel is closer and more vulnerable to this threat, and has no margin of error.

Israel’s policy is not merely to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon today; it is also to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon in the future. And Israel is very concerned that a deal will be forged that will not dismantle Iran’s nuclear-weapons capability. We are concerned that it would leave Iran with an advanced nuclear infrastructure today—relying on intelligence and inspectors to prevent Iran from breaking out or sneaking out to the bomb—and in the foreseeable future enable Iran to have an industrial-sized nuclear program, as the timeframe for this agreement runs out and all sanctions are removed. That is an outcome that is unacceptable to Israel." The Atlantic

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Does it seem odd to anyone else that the former US citizen Ron Dermer is discussing this with Jeffrey Goldberg who either is or was an IDF reservist? No matter, I fully support Goldberg's effort to pry the truth out of Dermer.

Does it amuse others that Dermer threw Boehner under the bus in this interview? To paraphrase - We Israelis always wanted to seek White House agreement but that nasty Boehner didn't let us. All the world is against us...

What Israel seems to want for the rest of the ME is a super-sized Morgenthau Plan that would reduce the surrounding countries to unindustrialized pastoral regions without the potential for manufacturing weapons.

At the same time Israel seems to want the US to continue to march in lock step with it on any issue of interest.

To that end they wish to address the Congress of the United States for the purpose of lobbying against the president of the US.

27 January 2015

"... the government failed to produce any proof that Sterling talked with Risen about the Iran operation, Lang and other close observers of his trial have noted. Prosecutors could show only that Risen and Sterling, an African-American, talked and traded emails after an appeals court rejected a race discrimination suit by Sterling against the CIA in 2005.

As Edward MacMahon, Sterling’s defense attorney, said in court, “You’re not going to see an email [relaying information to Risen]. You’re not going to hear a phone call. It doesn’t exist.” He added, “What we really have is a cloud that needs to be lifted off Mr. Sterling.”

On Monday the Justice Department hailed the conviction of Sterling, who worked in clandestine operations beginning in the 1990s, as “a just and appropriate outcome.”

But Lang, a Middle East expert who was the DIA’s first director of the service’s foreign spying program in the 1990s, called the verdict a travesty.

“I was a consultant on the trial and I sat through all the testimony, and there was zero direct evidence that Jeff Sterling was one of Jim Risen’s sources for the book,” Lang told Newsweek. “It was entirely circumstantial and the poor [man] is going to go away for a long, long time.”" Jeff Stein

03 December 2014

So, it looks like Carter will be nominated to be SECDEF. The Obamanites would have preferred Flournoy as part of their effort to achieve a grand-slam in the field of "Hope and Change" but the lady decided she was "not for burning." Smart.

Carter is filled with wonderfulness as an academic prodigy, physicist, budgeteer, procurer (in a nice way), etc., but he "don't know s--t from Shinola" about actual war or foreign policy. That last was a quote from one of my old NCO friends.

The industrial part of the fabled military-industrial complex is said to be rejoicing about the prospect of this man handing out contracts. Yes, I am sure it is.

IMO, the prospect of Carter as SECDEF means that McCain is right when he says that Carter simply will not be a player in strategic decision making. That, in turn means that Dempsey's role as chief strategist at the Pentagon will grow to be even larger.

CJCS is not in the chain of command under Goldwater-Nichols but in this situation that seems irrelevant. I think it unlikely that General Austen (CENTCOM) would choose to get crosswise with Dempsey on anything important.

IMO the struggle between the JCS and the Girls Club at the WH will continue with Dempsey being the chief protagonist on the DoD side of the conflict.

There are all kinds of serious matters to be dealt with in the next two years. Presumably the money fight will be ably led by SECDEF. This is the kind of thing that he is well qualified to do, but there are real wars to fight:

23 November 2014

In November of 1976, after all kinds of intrigues to which I was no participant, The Washington Post gave me a $500 advance and sent me to Iran to do a series on that country. The editors gave me no guidance. I kept asking what I was to write about, and they would reply, “You’ll find something.” At that time, I was married to an Iranian woman who had never been to Iran. Her father was the Iranian Press Attaché in Washington, and I was very close to him, closer than to my real father. He taught me to love Iranian music, to learn passable Farsi, history and to love the Persian poets. My favorite was the poet Saadiq, from Shiraz.

So I went off to Iran. It was like sending a six year old to build an intricate computer.

I had learned from being in the first racial riot in Washington, D.C, that the way to get news is to go where no one wants you or expects you. In Iran, I planned to learn about Islam by going to the mosques. Everyone in America apparently saw the mosques as horrible and frightening. I suspected they had never visited one. But the mosques were the center of opposition to the Shah.

The night I arrived, I met my mother-in-law in Shemiran, a Tehran wealthy suburb close to the Shah’s palace. That Thursday evening was a holiday, and all over the city, the throats of sheep were being cut. I remember the gamey smell of the blood trickling in the joube or street drain. The next day, I went to south Tehran to go to the mosque there. It was a big mosque and was supposed to be a center for resistance to the Shah. Since the Shah had required that I become a Shia in order to marry, and I had done so and had my name inscribed in the rolls at Iranian Embassy on Massachusetts Avenue. As a result, I felt I really needed to try out my religion, which I had studied, in order to move beyond the mere academic and gain a genuine knowledge. I was accompanied down to the south Tehran mosque by a dark-skinned gentleman from the Iranian Ministry of Information. He was in his forties. Courteous, smooth, polite.

16 November 2014

"Yemeni Shi'ite Muslim Houthi fighters backed by government forces drove the local wing of al Qaeda from one of its last strongholds in central Yemen on Friday in intense fighting that killed at least 35 people, tribal sources said.

The Houthis' Ansarullah movement has become the main political force in Western-allied Yemen since capturing Sanaa in September and then pushing south and west into the Sunni Muslim heartland of al-Bayda province, where Ansar al-Sharia has allied itself with local tribes.

Yemen has been in turmoil since 2011, to the dismay of neighboring Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, and of the Western powers who want to prevent instability in the Arabian peninsula threatening their crude supplies or giving al Qaeda a base for overseas attacks.

Tribal sources said the Houthis had met stiff resistance as they pushed towards the village of Khobza district using Katuysha rockets and heavy artillery.

They said at least 25 Houthis and 10 Ansar al-Sharia and tribal fighters had died in the fighting, which began on Thursday afternoon. Ansar al-Sharia and its allies withdrew to Yakla district, on the border with Maarib province." Reuters

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Full disclosure - I was once DEFATT in Yemen at Sanaa.

A primer on some aspects of Yemen:

- Zeidi (fiver) Shia Muslims are so conservative (restrained) religiously that they are sometimes thought of as a fifth Sunni mathab. Their theology and general view of the religious sciences follow the mu'tazilite tradition. They are quite distinct from and have little allegiance to the 12er Shia in Iran, Lebanon and other scattered places.

- From a few miles south of Sanaa to the northern reaches of the country where it "borders" Saudi Arabia the country is almost altogether Zeidi Shia in population. Those people are tough little mountaineers, who are extremely tribal in their lives and who are generally aligned in two major tribal confederations, the Baqil and the Hashid. These tribal confederations are the real power in Yemen north of Sanaa. they possess a lot of military equipment that was mainly stolen from the government when officers who are members of these confederations defected back to their true allegiance taking their gear and often soldiers with them.

- The former president, Ali Abdullah Salih, is a Zeidi tribesman of the Sanhan minor tribe of the Hashid confederation.

- From Sanaa south, Yemen is primarily inhabited by much less tribal villagers who are Sunni and usually of the shafa'i mathab. These folks are the recruiting ground for AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia and similar Sunni salafi jihadi groups for whom the Zaidi tribesmen of the north are just another kind of murtadoon (heretics) to be fought to the death.

- Further complicating the mozaic of groups that is Yemen is the lingering effect of British possession of the Aden crown colony for many years. In the course of that period a lot of Yemenis from Aden attended such schools as the London School of Economics where they became both atheistical and left wing politically. Such people are still on the scene in the cities and continue to be active in the government of a united Yemen.

- The Houthis are a Zeidi Shia reformist movement that draws solely on the Zeidi population of the north. It does not have and cannot have any friendly relations with the Sunni jihadi groups of the south. The movement started in the al-houthi clan and has since spread to the two major confederations of Zeidi tribesmen. The Houthis as a cult prefer not to fight if it can be avoided and captured the capital, Sanaa, with very little violence. Salih, a Zeidi tribesman understandably sides with the Houthis as opposed to the Sunni, left oriented people now running the government of the United Yemen.

- A government of national unity has been formed among; the Houthis and their army, the national army and the nationalist/left dominated functionaries now in office in Sanaa. This coalition is actively and successfully fighting the Sunni jihadis.

The US government response to all this is to denounce the Houthis and Salih as interfering with stability and the integrity of the Yemeni state. This reflects the ignorant, obsessive, insistance of the American foreign policy establishment that "one size fits all" in terms of the norms of governance across the world with the implication that the US embassies in such countries as Yemen are actually pro-consular outposts from which the ambassador/governor guides and controls the province/country in which he/she is located. When this attitude, derived from notions of "exceptionalism," is accompanied by the IR/Poly Sci paradigm of foreign relations now so evident in the US government, the result is the noxious self-defeating environment in which US decisions are now made. pl

27 October 2014

"What we would like to see is for the FSA and the forces that we willultimately generate, train and equip to become the credible force that theAssad government ultimately has to acknowledge and recognize. There is notgoing to be a military solution here [in Syria]. We have to create so much credibility within the moderate Syrian opposition at a political level . . . that they earn their spot at the table when the time comes for the political solution. Now,there could be FSA elements that ultimately clash with the regime, that maywell be the case, as they seek to defend themselves and those areas that theydominate and as they seek to defend their families and their ways of life . . .it could be an outcome. But the intent is not to create a field force toliberate Damascus—that is not the intent. The intent is that in the politicaloutcome, they [the moderate Syrian opposition] must be a prominent—perhaps the preeminent voice—at the table to ultimately contribute to the political outcome that we seek." Allen

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Sweet 'Issa! Has anyone run this "plan" by Lord Palmerston or Marshal Lyautey? They actually knew something about colonial strategery. So, we are going to make the phantom unicorn army of the FSA into something that will "earn its place at the table," and be "perhaps the preeminent voice" in the "political outcome that we seek." Marvelous! That should take a few decades but after that a mere ten or fifteen thousand US combat troops in real units (infantry, armor, aviation, etc.) will suffice to make it stick. Maybe we could create ethnic/sect pure Syrian colonial units who would police the "peace." What do the marines here say about this guy? Is he another polished staffie like Perfect Peter Pace? PL

“Based on past conflicts,” said one senior American military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss delicate intelligence assessments, the missiles “are game changers out there.”

The proliferation of antiaircraft weaponry has also heightened concerns about the vulnerability of Iraq’s airports, particularly Baghdad International Airport, the country’s most important transportation hub and a lifeline for military supplies and reinforcements to Iraq.

15 October 2014

SAR forces have consolidated control over Aleppo and are re-occupying border posts to the north and west of the city. IS forces have withdrawn to the NE of Aleppo under severe pressure from SAR ground forces as well as SAR air force and US combat aviation. The US continues to deny the obvious tacit cooperation with Syria,

KAR Front.

PM forces with support from both the US and Iran have advanced to positions in which they control Kurdish populated areas in Iraq. The KAR government states that it does not intend to advance further into IS controlled areas. The KAR government does not believe that it has the strength that would be needed to retake Mosul. There has been a large scale evacuation of Kurds from all the areas of northern Iraq. These Kurds are fleeing into the KAR. The KAR government states that it will not attempt to take any action in Syrian Kurdistan but that refugees who make their way to the KAR will be welcomed. Delivieries of US supplied equipment to the KAR continue through Iranian ports and are tranported to Suleimaniya by Iranian transport. Obama Administration efforts to bring 1 USSFGA de facto liaison to an end have failed. There have been several instances of violent confrontation between CIA and Green Berets over this issue.

Anbar/Baghdad Front.

The Iraqi/Abadi government "suspended" most governmental functions in Baghdad as of 1 May 2015. The government is moving to Nasiriya far to the south. In response, the US Embassy has largely abandoned its compound on the west bank of the Tigris and is moving to co-locate with the government at Nasiriya. Some US military functions continue at the former embassy. AH64 Apaches are operating from within the compound. A battalion of USMC have been airlifted into the embassy compound to join the battalion + already on the scene. BIA is entirely in the hands of IS. All of Anbar is under IS control.

Jordan Front.

Jordanian Army has deployed to combat ready positions in the north and around Ma'an in the south. There is now a combined division sized armored task force in position at Azraq Air base in eastern Jordan. TF Hashemi consists of two US Stryker brigades, a French light armored brigade, and the Jordanian 40th Armored Brigade. TF is OPCON to Jordanian Army. A prince of the royal house is in nominal command.

13 October 2014

"Iran instructed Hezbollah to attack Israeli forces on the border with Lebanon in retaliation for the “bombing” of Iran’s Parchin nuclear facility, a Kuwaiti newspaper reported.

The report Friday in the al-Rai newspaper cites high-level Washington-based European diplomats, who said a “foreign country” was responsible for the bombing of the military base and suspected nuclear facility." JTA

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Bibi likes to say that Israel reserves the right to act in its own self defense. IMO Israel could manage a small scale air attack of this sort. The problem is that such an attack would be an act of war. Does Israel really want war with Iran and/or Hizbullah? pl

10 October 2014

Russia, France and Turkey have agreed to a one time exception to the Montreux Convention to allow positioning of the French Navy De Gaulle carrier battle group in the eastern Black sea for the purpose of air operations against IS in Iraq. France does not want to participate in Syrian operations. France does not want to lured into overflying Syria. Turkey will allow overflight of eastern Anatolia to and from Iraq. Turkey will also allow forward positioning of French naval SAR at Batman and emergency landings at Batman, Mus and Erzurum as necessary. Russia has offered the French battle group port privileges at Sebastopol for ship chandler and re-fueling operations. France has yet to respond to this offer.

Turkey continues to deny the US the use of its airbases for offensive operations in either Syria or Iraq. Turkey seems to believe that it has enough leverage over US to force US ground participation in decisive campaign against the Syrian government as well as in establishment of a "no fly zone" in Syria that would inevitably result in direct combat between US and Syrian air forces.

Iranian assisted Pesh Merga forces in eastern Iraq continue to receive US air support. This unacknowledged cooperation between Iran and the US is effective.

Syria's foreign minister stated once again on 1 November that Syria is pleased with US intervention against IS forces and positions. Syrian and US aircraft are carefully avoiding each other by mutual consent.

Terrorist Front

In Jordan, IS sympathisers attacked and killed two American tourists at Petra on the 20th of October. Three French tourists were kidnapped on 25 October from the vicinity of one of the Ummayad hunting lodges in the eastern desert near Azraq air base. The kidnappers were Saudi beduin who took the French back across the border into the northern Najd where they have posted Utube videos demanding multi-million Euro ransoms for each one. They state that if their demands are not met they will begin beheading the captives in the name of the Caliph Ibrahim. The Saudi government has made no effort to rescue these people.

German police have apprehended an Al-Qaida affiliate cell in Hamburg. The group was well advance in planning a bombing attack against the NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Political Front

The US mid-term election resulted in Republican gains in the House of Representatives and control of the senate by the GOP 53-47. On 5 November, Senator McConnell, the presumptive next majority leader, demanded that President Obama take firm and decisive action against Islamic terrorism and IS in particular or face decisive action with regard to failure to "defend the United States." A large group of Republican senators voiced immediate agreement. Washington is overflowing with media hyped rumors that Obama is about to seek a new civilian national security team.

By 5 November a dozen new Ebola cases had appeared in the US causing a serious distraction from foreign affairs. Many more had appeared by then in Europe. Media personalities excoriated public health officials on both continents. In west Africa the first cases of US military personnel displaying signs of what might be Ebola had appeared by 5 November.

President Obama had not, by 5 November, authorised a US ground presence in Iraq or Syria other than as operations advisers, trainers and guard for the embassy in Baghdad. As a result the nearest US ground combat units were in Kuwait and Jordan.

Kobane Front

By 5 November IS had taken 90% of the town, in spite of the large number of coalition air strikes, many of them flown, at Kurdish request, by US heavy bombers against targets inside Kobane. These had failed to halt IS' advance but killed many Kurdish defenders and destroyed much of the city. On the 2nd of November IS brought a hundred Kurdish prisoners to the Turkish border where they were executed for the TV cameras. This was staged for network news. In the fighting for Kobane throughout the latter half of October the IS used suicide truck bombers as part of their attack fire plans, rolling the trucks forward through their infantry lines to detonate them just before assaults.

Aleppo Front

More and more IS fighters have returned to the Aleppo area for the purpose of trying to stop the Syrian Army's finalization of the encirclement of the old city. US air activity has followed them and as a result, US aircraft are now (5 November) flying missions against ground targets presently engaged by the Syrian Army.

KAR front.

US aircraft are now operating from several KAR airfields. Erbil, Suleimaniya, etc. USArmy's first SFGA is present in increasing numbers in the KAR. They are returning to the region with many of the people who were instrumental in the "awakening." Contacts are being re-established and these SF soldiers are returning to the tribal areas behind IS lines. Most of 1 SFGA are engaged as adviser/trainers with the Pesh Merga.

Anbar Front

Nearly all of Anbar Province was in IS hands by 5 November. Captured M198 155 mm. howitzers have been emplaced in camouflaged singleton positions within range of BIA. "Searching fire" against the airport began in late October. Two HE shells landed on the apron in front of the passenger terminal on the 25th. The dozen airlines that had been operating through BIA then "suspended' operations until safety could be assured. In the last week of October, IS artillery fire against the airport improved in accuracy. The reason for this was revealed when several airport employees were arrested by the secret police and charged with spotting for IS artillery and reporting by cell phone. These arrests were followed the next night by a ground suicide bomber attack on aviation fuel stores at the airport. It had been hoped that the provision of counter-battery radar to Iraqi Army artillery would enable them to suppress IS artillery, but, in the event, Iraqi Army artillery commanders have declined to advance to firing positions from which they could be effective. IS sympathisers in the area report Iraqi Army firing positions by cell phone and the resulting fire is more than than the Iraqi Army want to experience.

Baghdad Front

Large numbers of Shia have begun to leave the area of Baghdad west of the Tigris. More and more arms caches in that part of the city are being discovered by the police.

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Based on this statement of the situation as of 5 November- 2014, forecast your views as to what is likely to occur between 5 Nomber, 2014 and 1 March 20.

Real world time for inputs for this turn will expire at 1600 GMT, 12 October 2014.

DO NOT FIGHT THE PROBLEM. The game is intended to be a pedagogic tool for sharpening our understaning of outstanding issues. IT IS NOT intended to be predictive of the future. pl

08 October 2014

With this move we transition from yesterday's effort to describe the present real world situation to a more expansive sense of the nature of this game.

From this point forward in the game we will operate in the context of scenarios written by Turcopolier Control. These scenarios will be generated for each turn on the basis of the initial scenario (given below) as modifed by Turcopolier Control (TC) on the basis of your various situation inputs. Scenarios will reflect both real world factors and TC opinion as to the meaning of some of the data.

Remember - No Sasquatch marines (an interesting thought) or return of the Mahdi to judge us all.

SCENARIO 1 - game date 7 October 2014

Kobane front.

Turkey continues to be the anvil in the hammer and anvil IS operation at Kobane while Turkish forces stand by observing the slaughter of President Erdogan's Kurdish enemies in the city. Turkish forces continue to block movement of Kurdish fighters into the city from the north as well as free evacuation of Kurdish farmers and their animals across the border into Turkey. Riots have begun to break out in SE Turkey cities like Diyarbakir but also in Istanbul and Ankara. 15 people have been killed thus far by Turkish security forces. Unrest among dissident elements of the Turkish population is spreading across the country

07 October 2014

We are going to play a game on SST. This game will be a miniature version of the large scale politico-military games played by a number of corporations under contract to government entities in Europe and the United States. This game is based on the general principles of government gaming and does not derive from any company's proprietary interest. The purpose of this game will be educational for all of us participants rather than implied policy prescriptions as in many government contract games. These threads (each move) will not preclude other threads in parallel.

The subject of the game will be the probable course of military and geopolitical events in the war between IS and the anti-IS coalition constructed by the United States over the next six months. Although IS and the coalition are the principal players, all those parties whose interests are involved in the contest can be introduced as additional players by participants. Diplomatic, economic, political and military elements of the situation are to be included in the play.

The game will be played in "turns." W. Patrick Lang (turcopolier) will act as umpire, omniscient observer and control for the game as Turcopolier Control. The period of time available for completion of a task will be stated when each sub-part of a turn is posted.

The first turn will consist of two parts:

- A data call from players for statements of the real world situation as of this date - 7 October 2014. Estimates will be submitted to SST as comments on this post. 24 hours from time of posting for this sub-part will be allowed. After that time has passed Turcopolier Control will issue a consolidated situation statement based on the inputs and his judgement.

- Based on that new situation statement the players will be asked to forceast events for the next month for all the parties portrayed in the game.

In the second turn, Turcopolier/Control will issue a new scenario based on the results of Turn One:

- Based on that revised scenario participants will be asked to forecast additional play for the parties to the game for two additional months.

The Third Turn will be a continuation of this process. The game will continue until it is judged to no longer be fruitul. Participants are cautioned that fantasy inputs will not be tolerated or accepted, i.e, intervention by God (deus ex machina), beings from outer space or the like.

In any turn following the initial situation assesment, participants may request diplomatic talks with a player or a specific information input. Such information may or may not be available. In all such exchanges, Turcopolier Control will be the actual interlocutor.

These rules are subject to revision mid-game by Turcopolier Control. The game is proprietary to SST.

30 September 2014

"Islamic State fighters seized two towns in western Iraq, after besieging hundreds of soldiers, according to a regional official.

The militant group has captured Albu Etha and al-Hamdhiya, Faleh al-Issawi, deputy head of Anbar provincial council, said by phone today. He said some Iraqi troops were killed and others deserted their posts, without giving details.

Earlier the head of the Anbar council, Sabah Karhout, had said that at least two battalions of the Iraqi army, or 260 men, were trapped near Albu Etha, and that efforts were being made to send reinforcements and enable them to break the siege.

The clashes are taking place in a region where U.S.-led airstrikes are seeking to roll back the insurgents’ advance. Karhout and al-Issawi said that Islamic State controls at least half of the city of Ramadi, the provincial capital, though they said that elsewhere in Anbar the airstrikes have enabled security forces to recapture territory." Bloomberg

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These two garrisons were only fifty miles or so from the western side of Baghdad. Evidently the surrounded units made repeated attempts to obtain relief and reinforcements from the capital but to no avail. When they ran out of ammunition they fled. It is clear that the Iraqi government is no more able to deal with IS now than they were a few months ago. IS continues to clear its rear areas of pockets of government forces like these. Once they finish that they will have a freer hand to move on with whatever it is they intend to do next. pl

"Shells continued to fall on Kobane on Monday afternoon as the Islamic State sustained its attack, two days after the U.S-led coalition struck militant positions near the city in an attempt to weaken their offensive. Some of those shells fell in Turkish territory Monday, drawing attention to Turkey’s hands-off approach to the militants’ advance. Turkish authorities have prevented Turkish Kurds from entering Syria to fight alongside their brethren." Washpost

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The Turks are letting Kurdish refugees from Kobane enter their country but are using water cannons and tear gas to prevent Kurdish reinforcements from farther east entering Kobane from the Turkish side of the border. In other words they are assisting IS in its efforts to take the town. At the same time they have moved armor to their side of the border in what seems to be a PR demonstration of resistance to any IS effort to pursue into Turkey. IMO this is merely a gesture because there is no infantry with these tanks. The soldiers here will tell you all that tanks do not operate alone if you expect to fight. Tanks alone are very vulnerable to infantry armed with things like RPGs. US air attacks on this IS force at Kobane does not seem to have had much effect. pl

"A senior source in the Kurdish Peshmerga said troops had entered the town of Rabia on the border with Syria, after seizing the villages of Al Saudiyah and Mahmudiyah.

“Ground troops are now fighting in the centre of Rabia,” which lies about 100kms northwest of Mosul.

He said Peshmerga forces, backed by artillery and warplanes, were also attacking Zumar, about 60kms northwest of the city, near the reservoir of Iraq’s largest dam, which has been a key battleground between the Kurds and the militants.

Both Rabia and Zumar were areas which the Peshmerga seized in the chaos that followed the militants’ capture of Mosul in a lightning offensive in early June." Gulfnews

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Ah, some good news! I don't quite understand why the PM are re-taking Rabia if they captured it in June. The PM have never had much experience with tanks and artillery and are not yet trained to use these weapons. They have some captured equipment but not a lot in running condition. Where did they get this support and who is operating the equipment? The Iranians played a major role in re-taking the Mosul Dam, perhaps they are involved again. pl

19 September 2014

"What will Barack Obama do? This is the question posed by everyone. What will he do in Iraq? What will he do in Syria? How does he intend to address Russian-Iranian opposition? How will he wage a war that requires Sunnis in Iraq to be ground soldiers, when they are asking for clarity "before" and not "after" military action? How will he reassure his partners in the alliance that he is truly serious on Syria?

The US president may decide in the end that this is not his war, and that it is best to return to his country to fortify it against terrorism, and let ISIS unleash itself on everyone until it commits suicide or until it is slayed eventually. This is perhaps the course he might choose if it appears to him that all those who want him to fight their wars on their behalf will meet his war with ingratitude and petulance."

"... on Friday IS had seized three more villages near Kobani, bringing to 24 the number it had taken.

Esmat al-Sheikh, head of the Kurdish forces defending Kobani, said fierce clashes continued to the east, west and south of the city, which is bordered by Turkey to the north. IS fighters armed with rockets, artillery, tanks and armored vehicles seized from the Iraqi army in Mosul had advanced to within 20 km (12 miles) of Kobani, he told Reuters by telephone.

"The whole world is silent," he said. "Every day we hear there is going to be an attack on ISIS. But where is it? ... Will it come after everyone is already dead?"

The attack prompted a Kurdish militant call to the youth of Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast to join the fight against IS, whose offensive began on Tuesday after the U.S. military said Syrian moderates would probably need the Syrian Kurds’ help to defeat Islamic State, along with the help of Turkey and Jordan." Reuters

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So much for those who have claimed recently that IS is a spent force that will disintegrate from internal contradictions, They are now on the offensive again

"Rockets, artillery, tanks, armored vehicles," I guess that answers the question of whether or not IS can use relatively modern weapons. If they capture or buy on the international markets some fairly effective AAA weapons they will truly be a menace to a modern force.

BTW, I was informed yesterday that in the Mosul Dam operation the principal ground forces on the "friendly side were Al-Quds Iranian troops not Pesh Merga and they had the benefit of adjusted US CAS. pl

"... an apparent call for attacks not only on the ruling family and Westerners in Saudi Arabia, but also on the kingdom's senior Muslim scholars who have denounced ISIS, Jazrawi said:

"It is time to say 'we will expel the disbelievers from the Arabian Peninsula'. The fire begins with a small spark. That spark will ignite an explosive fire directed at the Saud Family and to their rabbis and priests."

He called on self-declared Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to lead the advance on the birthplace of Islam.

Saudi Arabia's top religious council, the only body in the country authorized to issue fatwas or Islamic legal opinions, declared Wednesday that "terrorism is a heinous crime," in the most comprehensive attack the kingdom's conservative council have made so far on Islamic radicalism and ISIS.

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As I wrote here before, SA with its large potential 5th Column is the only logical primary objective for IS. pl

11 September 2014

It is axiomatic in the planning "bidness" that a good plan is as simple as possible. Any well done plan is set within a "universe" of assumptions concerning the situation in which the plan is viable or even needed. For that reason there must exist among the planners a clear and valid understanding of the environment in which the plan will be executed. I do not see that lucidity of thought in the Obama government

The various tasks assigned by a plan must be capable of accomplishment and they must not be mutually interfering, i.e., they must not block each other as they are performed. The tasks in a plan are colloquially referred to by planners as "moving parts." Another planning axiom holds that the more moving parts there are in a plan, the more probable is failure in execution.

Obama appears to have a mass of moving parts in his campaign plan:

- The plan assumes that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey can be made into active supporters of an anti-IS "war." Qatar and Saudi Arabia were the only Wahhabi dominated states until IS proclaimed its caliphal status. These two countries are deeply sympathetic to IS' goals if not its methods. Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia were instrumental in the early stages of development of IS as it morphed from AQ Iraq, into the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and then to a final glory as IS. Do we really think it will be easy to enlist Qatar and Saudi Arabia in this fight? Do we really think that these deeply Sunni states are going to support continued Shia governance from Baghdad?

06 September 2014

"... after the initial crackdown, the group began setting up services and institutions - stating clearly that it intended to stay and use the area as a base in its quest to eradicate national boundaries and establish an Islamic "state".

"We are a state," one emir, or commander, in the province told Reuters. "Things are great here because we are ruling based on God's law."

Some Sunni Muslims who worked for Assad's government stayed on after they pledged allegiance to the group.

"The civilians who do not have any political affiliations have adjusted to the presence of Islamic State, because people got tired and exhausted, and also, to be honest, because they are doing institutional work in Raqqa," one Raqqa resident opposed to Islamic State told Reuters.

Since then, the group "has restored and restructured all the institutions that are related to services," including a consumer protection office and the civil judiciary, the resident said." Reuters

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"Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the threat from IS 'requires us to work together and seek common solutions.' It (Iran) has reached out to Saudi Arabia - the leading Sunni power and Iran's regional rival - and has turned a blind eye to US actions in Iraq, which it has historically opposed.

In Iraq, the Iranians themselves have played a key role in countering IS. Iranian Revolutionary Guards have advised Iraqi security forces, Iranian pilots have carried out air strikes, Iranian-backed Shia militia have mobilised, and Iran says it has been sending weapons and advisers to Iraqi Kurdistan.

27 August 2014

With its meteoric military rise, its leadership, management and financing, the newest terrorist scourge facing the world is ISIS. Operating in what is clearly a political vacuum in northeast Syria and western Iraq and benefitting from the studied indifference of most of the Muslim world, Isis is clearly on a roll.

The chaos in the Middle East and the broader Muslim world is largely the result of a combination of incredibly bad United States military/foreign policy decisions and the concomitant disintegration or destruction of all those elements, both good and bad, that were in place and maintaining order in the region before we invaded Iraq in 2003.

And in the midst of all of this chaos, Americans are coming slowly to the realization that ISIS presents us with real, long run, existential problems and that we probably have absolutely no idea how to deal with this situation at the moment.

Our problem in policy formulation on this issue is also of our own making. It comes as a result of the same horrendous decision to invade Iraq, for that invasion created two new realities for us.

First, it has made more than half of the U.S. population extremely wary about any further military involvement in the Islam. We are war-weary to the extent that virtually no policy proposal for dealing with ISIS has failed to mention the guarantee that there will be no U.S. boots on the ground.

Secondly, that Iraq invasion, coupled with our endless stay in Afghanistan, has virtually guarantees that the re-commitment of American troops in uniform will have a unifying anti-American effect on Muslim populations, even though the radical ISIS is viewed with horror by most of those local populations.

If you doubt that, look first at the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan after 2003 which was driven largely by the fact that when the locals were faced with a choice between foreigners (Americans) and locals, they decided to back their own. Or, look at the way Sunnis in Syria and Iraq, heavily influenced by hostile, unaccepting Shia governments in Baghdad and Tehran, have tolerated, even joined with ISIS in its fight for power. The fact is that, particularly in Islam, given any need to choose between foreigners and locals, it is a rare thing that the foreigners will be favored. All one has to do to understand that is read the history of the region.

So, what are our policy options? The attitudes of both American and Muslim citizens toward the American military establishment, basically rule out the effective reintroduction of U.S. troops into the area, even if we had the necessary resources to do it. Yet, if ISIS is to be neutralized, it will not be done without ground forces. It’s not just the ISIS soldiers, it is the larger question of denying them control of the territory over which they now preside in Iraq and Syria.

Then we have Kurdish and Iraqi troops. The problem there, accepting that they are ill-equipped, ill-trained and relatively ineffective, is that there are historical political reasons to worry about such confrontations. We have ages old Kurdish/Turk frictions. Additionally, any Iraqi army of the future is going to be Shia dominated in a struggle with Sunni ISIS. That scenario bears the strong possibility that a Shia-Sunni conflict ultimately could easily embroil the entire region.

Needing foot soldiers and ruling out all non-Muslims, we are left with the rest of the Muslim world. Note that none of them have so far rushed into the fray against ISIS, either because they are frightened to be seen to do so, because they prefer them to the alternative, or might even actually support them. Why else would the Iraqi Sunnis, who are among the more secular Muslims, support a bloodthirsty bunch of zealots who want to install the most conservatively radical sectarian government imaginable? Perhaps as a counterbalance to Iraqi Shia forces?

We need to keep trying to find Muslims who disagree enough with ISIS to fight against them. Barring such an unlikely find, we need to arm anyone - Kurdish, Iraqi or Shia - who wants to fight against them. We need to keep US military uniforms completely out of the fray, but we might be well-advised to get ready for a protracted, completely covert or clandestine struggle against ISIS which would involve our intelligence resources as well as our black, paramilitary operational capabilities.

Or we can pretend there is not a real threat and wait until they hit us, which, absent meaningful U.S. involvement, they most certainly will do at some point in the future.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA Station Chief who served in East and West Europe and the Middle East, as Executive Assistant in the Director’s office and as Chief of the Counterterrorism Staff.

22 August 2014

"US attacks on the Sunni Islamic State in Iraq and its cooperation and arming of the ruling Shi’ite government there, is the latest signal that the West is moving towards an arrangement with the Shi’ite Iranian axis, which includes Hezbollah, Iraq, and Syria.

Such an alignment has been feared by the Sunni world and Israel for some time." Jpost

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The SecDef/CJCS presser yesterday was illuminating in many ways. Most obviously they were covering for the absent Golfer in Chief whose smiling and laughing person is so evident in the media, Dempsey stated forthrightly that IS is especially dangerous because its ambitions are both limitless and apocalyptic, and that eventually the movement will have to be defeated and destroyed. I agree with that assesment. The Jpost quote above is merely Israeli logrolling expressing their frustration with not being able to "move" the Golfer's foreign policy in the detail they would like. You can expect to see a maximum effort by Bibi's vendu US Congress to block a nuclear deal with Iran (or any other kind of deal). I agree with Dempsey that IS is an existential threat to all the regional governent except Israel and Iran. Having said that, I remind everyone again that it was the US invasion of Iraq and destruction of the existing Iraqi state as well as US agitation leading to the Arab Spring disasters that were the root causes for the disorder that now infests Iraq, Syria and potentially all the other Arab States. It was one of the main functions of the previous governments to suppress the Sunni extremists who have now found their voice in IS. We broke these governments and now we truly and unfortunately own the mess. We are going to war against IS. This time there should be a declaration of war by Congress. That would clean up a lot of the legal issues that plagued the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan pl

"General Lord Dannatt’s comments come almost a year since David Cameron lost a Commons vote authorising air strikes on President Assad in response to chemical weapons attacks on civilians – action that would likely have toppled him from power.

Britain and its allies have repeatedly called for Assad to step down to bring the three-year civil war that spawned Isil to an end.

Isil must be “opposed, confronted and defeated” in Iraq and Syria before it spreads through the region, Lord Dannatt told BBC Radio 4.

"The Syrian dimension has got to be addressed. You cannot deal with half a problem," he said.

"The old saying 'my enemy's enemy is my friend' has begun to have some resonance with our relationship with Iran.

"I think it's going to have to have some resonance with our relationship with Assad."

"I think whether it is above the counter or below the counter, a conversation has got to be held with him." Telegraph

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Danatt's conclusion in this matter is so full of common sense that some of the newsies are beginning to understand it. In spite of all the Likud inspired AIPAC/neocon/R2P pressure and propaganda, it should be clear now that the cooperation of the Syran government is needed to defeat IS and the Nusra Front. Yesterday Dempsey repeated the tired, shop worn drivel of the Golfer's policy hacks with regard to Syria. I prefer to believe that he does not really believe what he said but is forced to say the words if he wishes to remain CJCS. pl

The victims, their heads covered and hands tied, were shot dead by masked gunmen dressed in black in front of a crowd of worshipers outside a mosque after prayers, witnesses andal-Majd, a pro-Hamas website, said.

In a sign of Hamas's increasing tight grip in the enclave following Israel's targeting killings of three of the group's senior commanders, nearly a dozen Palestinians were reportedly killed at the Jawazat installation in the Strip."Jpost

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It has been clear for some time that Palestinan Israeli agents are pervasively present in Gaza as they must be in the West Bank. The rapidity and pin point accuracy of Israeli air strikes on personnel targets as they present themselves can be accounted for in no other way. Expect a lot more executions. pl

"Three-quarters of Israeli Jews and nearly two-thirds of Israeli Arabs would not marry someone from a different religion, according to a poll.

Conducted by Haaretz and the Dialog company on Tuesday and Wednesday, the poll found that opposition to interfaith relationships was highest among haredi Orthodox Jews, at 95 percent. But 88 percent of traditional and religious Jews, as well as 64 percent of secular Jews, also opposed interdating.

Across religious denominations, Israeli Jews would be much more opposed to their relatives marrying Arabs than they would be to relatives marrying non-Arab gentiles. Only a third of secular Jewish Israelis would be opposed to a relative marrying an American or European Christian, but a majority would oppose a relative marrying an Arab. Seventy-two percent of Israeli Jews overall would be opposed to a relative marrying an Arab. JTA

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One of the key indications of progress toward the elimination of ethno-sectarian hostility in the ME (or anywhere else I suppose) has been a willingness to have consensual sex with "the other." If this is reflected in actual marriage with all its explicit cross communal responsibilities and civilities so much the better. There used to be a fair amount of sex between Israeli Jewish women and Palestinian men. I have known a number of Arab men who had Jewish mistresses. The comments of the Arabs as to why they had them were quite complimentary to the Jewish women. There were even a few marriages. Anthony Bourdain (now there is a lovely man) in his Israel sited TV show episode of "Parts Unknown" visits a mixed faith married couple who are running a restaurant out in the country. Such faith is touching to behold. In Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon such marriages were fairly common twenty years ago, but no more.

08 August 2014

IS (an emerging theocratic state)/Iraq (a geographic expression now rather than a country) -

There is an old German military maxim that runs something like "if you have a serious problem, boot it! Don't pee on it!" (The Germans here will sort me out on this.)

My expectation is that having now seen an actual demonstration of the US willingness to use air power to defend the KRG and Irbil the IS military leadership cadre will decide that the best Course of Action (COA) is to occupy Kurdish towns as rapidly as they can. Expect to see an early maximum effort to take Irbil. The IS mobile force possesses tanks, APCs and artillery and the ability to use them IMO their knowledge was hard bought in the Iran-Iraq War and at the Frunze Academy and other Soviet schools. IMO, ISIS is using military experts from the Old Iraqi Army (the one we disbanded) much as the Bosheviki used former Tsarist officers to organize and run the Red Army until the Blood Purges began in the 30s. Marhsal Tukhashevski was an eample of such a person. He was shot in the purge.

IMO IS is cleaning up its strategic rear and consolidating its new state. Some pathetic newsfool bleated today that "we thought ISIS was "over extended." I suppose that means that the Children's Crusade "experts" in the WH, State Department and media thought that to be the case. Here at SST (home of the truly hard hearted empaths) we never thought that.

An insurgent force that can; wage propaganda war, has lots of money, a coherent ideology and the ability to organize and operate armored kampfgruppen (battle groups) is a very dangerous opponent. IMO that force potentially threatens the state system throughout the Sunni Middle East and is a menace that must be halted.

To build an effective local coalition of forces against IS (a concert of the Middle East?) one must stop trying to unseat the existing governments. They are the only possible basis for such a coalition; Iran, Turkey, whatever government exists in Iraq, Jordan, Syria (Bashar), Egypt, Kuwait (for the basing), Saudi Arabia (for the money and basing), Qatar (for the basing). Unfortunately, to bring these forces together, Obama's government would have to acknowledge the folly of its college bull session foreign policy over the last six years. The Children's Crusade that is the Obama Administration in the NSC and State Department, driven by the social disease of utopian social science fantasies unseated Mubarak and thus began the unraveling of the system of nation states in the ME. In the absence of that system of governments, the underlying traditional loyalties which were suppressed by the nation states have re-emerged with a vengeance.

Will Obama have sense enough to reverse his policy? I doubt it.

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Sinjar Mountain and the Yazidis -

These are among the unfortunates of the earth. There are many such groups in the world. Dropping water and food to these people is a necessary but utterly inadequate response to their predicament. What has to be done is for a ground corridor to be opened from the mountain to Turkey through Kurdish held NE Syria. Nothing else will suffice. Will that happen? Probably it will not.

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Bibi Agonistes or "Why don't they give up?"

IMO it is the Israelis who are trapped by Gaza. Having attacked Hamas and Company in Gaza on the pretext of supposed Hamas involvement in the murder of three Jewish youths in the Hebron area, Bibi's belief was that he could smash and disassemble the Palsestinian consolidated government through massive and savage application of force on the Gaza population. Instead what he got was continuing (if ineffectual) resistance, the condemnatation of much of the world (including eventually the Obama claque) and now a refusal to accept a more permanent cease fire unless the sige of Gaza is lifted. Israel's war aims include a demonstration of Palestinian helplessness in order to induce a general acceptance of that helplessness among Palestinians. That being the case, the Palestinians must be seen to have gained nothing by resistance, but they keep shooting. Even Carol Costello on CNN can see that, "Oh why don't they give up! They can't win!" Her Irish ancestors (?) did not feel that way about the British throughout their 700 year long struggle. pl

21 July 2014

His eminence praised the persistence of the Hamas resistance and the tremendous patience of the people of Gaza and strongly supported their rightful demands to end the current battle.

Sayyed Nasrallah heard from Meshaal comforting and confident stance, as he reassured that Hamas resistance was ready to make a second victory in July." al-Manar

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Israel should seriousl think about agreeing to a cease fire. It has been suggested by some of our European friends on SST that Hizbullah does not care about Gaza and will not fight the Israelis over the "destiny" of th eGazans. IMO Nasrallah is not making an empty gesture. If the IDF continues its ravishment of Gaza, Hizbullah will begin to fire into nothern Israel. They can target just about anything in th enoerthern half of the country and have many, many weapons. A good question now would be the degree of redundancy in Iron Dome. pl

Hasbara work - "Now, there are 40 people in the interactive unit of the Israel Defense Forces, including videographers, animators, graphic artists and computer programmers, pumping out missives in six languages, on many platforms, in a tone much punchier than the typical news release. “Israel uses the Iron Dome to protect its civilians,” it said on Twitter over the weekend. “Hamas uses civilians to protect its rockets.”

14 July 2014

"On January 30, 2005, the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of Shiite political parties, won elections for the Iraq National Assembly. Ibrahim al-Jaafari became prime minister; Bayan Jabr, a member of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) was named interior minister. The victors, particularly SCIRI, saw MOI as a prize. The Defense Ministry was under U.S. military control and American soldiers were embedded with Iraqi Army units. MOI had only a small number of foreign advisors and security forces that were largely under Iraqi control.Minister Jabr used his position to place members of the Badr Brigade (SCIRI’s militia) in key positions in the ministry and to replace Sunnis in the commando units with Badr Brigade militiaman.After the February 22, 2006 terrorist bombing of the Shiite al-Askari Mosque in Samarra, police commando units were used to terrorize, torture and kill Sunnis."US Institute of Peace, 2008.

In today's Middle East Diary post, COL Lang highlights reports of infiltration of the Iraqi Security Forces. That this should surprise any current US military or civilian official that was involved with Iraq, or those who have retired since their involvement, is somewhere between amazing and mindblowing. The news media, as well asblogs and websites that linked to or aggregated news media reports in regard to events in Iraq** during Operation Iraqi Freedom, and even US government agencies like the US Institute of Peace (USIP) and think tanks like CSIS, clearly indicated that a significant portion of the Iraqi Army were former Badr Corps members. Most of this coverage was from 2009 and earlier. The Badr Corps, now the Badr Organization, was the militia/military wing of the al Hakim's Supreme Islamic Council for Iraq (ISCI or SCIRI). It was stood up, funded, trained, and overseen by Iran's Revolutionary Guards and many of its members are still receiving Iranian pensions.

If US and coalition leaders are now indicating that they did not know this or did not understand this, then something is very, very wrong. Leave aside the cultural operations info papers and responses to requests for information that I did for my Brigade Combat Team, which were shared with our provincial reconstruction team (PRT - made up of State Department and Interagency personnel), this material was being regularly reported in the news media. If US leadership, military, civilian, on the ground in Iraq, back in DC, were not tracking on this than we have a HUGE problem. Either senior leaders' staffs were not doing their jobs, there was an intelligence failure, or some combination. Given that this stuff was being reported in the news media, I find either of the latter to be highly unlikely and the former somewhat improbable as the material would have made it into Commander's Update Briefings.

There were some good reasons to bring the Badr guys into the Iraqi Security Forces. Namely the same ones for bringing parts of the Kurdish Peshmerga and the Awakenings/Sons of Iraq folks. Specifically to facilitate societal reconciliation and coalition building. That the Badr Corps and the Pesh were brought in and the Awakenings/Sons of Iraq largely locked out, shows exactly how far that reconciliation went, which was certainly not far enough. Instead the transition for the Awakenings/Sons of Iraq was short circuited in 2008 - same year the Iraqis rolled us on the provincial elections and the SOFA negotiations - by PM Maliki demanding and being granted control over the transition program for the Sons of Iraq.

* Adam L. Silverman is the Cultural Advisor at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

** This link transcribes Nir Rosen's Rolling Stone article entitled "The Myth of the Surge". For some reason the link to it at Rolling Stone is dead, so I've linked to Professor DeLong's trancription of it on his blog.

"A classified military assessment of Iraq’s security forces concludes that many units are so deeply infiltrated by either Sunni extremist informants or Shiite personnel backed by Iran that any Americans assigned to advise Baghdad’s forces could face risks to their safety, according to United States officials.

The report concludes that only about half of Iraq’s operational units are capable enough for American commandos to advise them if the White House decides to help roll back the advances made by Sunni militants in northern and western Iraq over the past month." NY Times

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Basically, the Iraqi "army" is not worthy of the term. LTG (Ret.) Dubik who now works for !SW and who "trained" this "army" says the same thing although I am told by people who were there when he was so engaged that he was fulsome in the praise of these "troops" at that time. pl

10 June 2014

Afghan loss of income - Yes the poor Afghans are terrified that their completely artificial and unsustainable level of US aid induced prosperity and development will be lost. And, then there is the grotesquely over-developed size and equipage of the Afghan armed forces. The expense of keeping them up greatly exceeds the GDP of the country. Since we do not seem to want these forces as imperial mercenaries, their future existence is unlikely. pl

Likud propaganda - David Albright moved several years ago toward the Likud/USG position on Iranian nuclear weapons intentions. Somebody ought to take a serious look at the funding of his foundation. pl

The B-1 strike - People die from friendly fire. They always have and always will. I was always very concerned about being bombed by friendlies whose help I had requested. The electronic gadgetry now in use does not really alleviate that. Widgets malfunction and tiny errors result in things like this. pl

Oligarchic poverty - Alas, poor Hillary. Sidwell friends and Stanford were a stretch for the Clintons. They had been living in free government housing in Arkansas and Washington for a long time. These residences came with free food, utilities, transportation, servants, guards, communications, etc. The pay was negligeable. Look it up. when Hillary's crie de coeur was voiced on Morning Joe, Mika B spoke up to speak movingly of her family's poverty when her father was National Security Adviser to Carter. Yes, it must have been hard to work her way through Williams College.

09 May 2014

"The newly discovered group in Saudi Arabia is the first group to be revealed to have ties with ISIS, which broke away from al-Qaeda in Syria and entered into a war against it. This war is ongoing despite the intervention of al-Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahri. So far, it is not clear whether ISIS established a new group in Saudi Arabia amid the conflict with the mother organization in Syria — Jabhat al-Nusra." Al Monitor

"The former head of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission Brigadier General (res.) Uzi Eilam just dropped a bombshell (no pun intended): "The Iranian nuclear program will only be operational in another 10 years," he told the Israeli paper Yediot Ahronoth. "Even so, I am not sure that Iran wants the bomb." And he added that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is employing needless fearmongering about Iran's atomic aspirations in order to further his own political aims." National Interest

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More lying on the part of the Israeli government. Thank God that Eilem is man enough to tell the truth. pl

"Russia is planning to send a total of 36 of these jets by 2016, the Kommersant newspaper reported. “We will fulfill obligations under a previously signed contract for the supply of 36 Yak-130 jets,” the Russian newspaper quoted a source close to the Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport as saying. The daily reported in June that Syria made an advance payment of $100 million to Russia for the first six Yak-130 jets under a contract signed in December 2011. Meanwhile, Russia newspaper Pravada, which is associated with the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, reported a source close to the country’s aviation business circles as saying that Moscow is planning to deliver nine aircraft to Syria before the end of this year and twelve aircrafts next year." Al Arabia

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This is not a game changer in Syria but my pal, Basilisk, who knows of such things tells me that this is a fitting successor to such aircraft as the A-10 Thunderbolt 2 and the SU-25 Frogfoot, pl

11 April 2014

For a couple days now, Lt. Gen. David Deptula, USAF (ret.) is making the rounds with JINSA's Makovski. Both are pomoting the idea of the transfer of MOPs and B-52s to Israel.

Punchline from JINSA's OpEd in The Wall Street Journal - April 8, 2014: "The Obama administration has cut a deeply flawed interim deal, forgone new sanctions, and effectively taken the military option off the table. It's time to increase the pressure on Tehran by boosting Israel's military capacity to cripple Iran's nuclear program."

This refers to a nuclear program that isn't proven to be a nuclear weapons program. US intelligence can't find evidence for that believing that Iran's nuclear program may or may not become a weapons program, but that there are no current indications of that change. The conflation of a nuclear program with a nuclear weapons program is not just sloppy language. It is a deliberate deception. Iran's ability to master enrichment is NOT tantamount to a nuclear weapons threat. A theoretical ability in the absence of intent is not a threat. Period. To say otherwise is to engage in deception.

Let's put this in clear language: The advocates of such equipment transfers want that the US should put Israel in a position in which it can flout US policy preferences by making them independent strategically by giving Israel a conventional stategic strike option.The desire to do this demonstrates Israel's current inability to successfully hit Iran.

This is the same idea promoted in 'A Clean Break', which notably stressed the idea that Israel ought to transform its relations with the United States, by making Israel self-reliant, i.e. independent from the US. Now that's an ally! These people want the US to make Israel independent, so that the Israelis can ignore whatever the US wants them to do and and at the same time they want the US taxpayer to foot the bill!

The tail is indeed wagging the dog. And re: 'A Clean Break' - the other major idea in that paper is that Israel, rather than pursuing a "comprehensive peace" with the entire Arab world, Israel should work jointly with Jordan (though nowadays it looks they are rather more allied with the Saudis) and Turkey to "contain, destabilize, and roll-back" those entities that are threats to all three. Which goes a long way to explain the current enthusiasm and persistent scheming to have the US to bomb Syria to smithereens already. And then Lebanon. And then Iran. Is there a cure for this lunacy? - Confused Ponderer

22 March 2014

"Iran, U.S. officials say, is currently at work building a nonworking replica of an American nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. From the sounds of it, the American intelligence community hasn't quite figured out why Iran is going through the trouble to do that, but the working theory appears to be: so they can blow it in a propaganda stunt. Or, as the New York Times gloriously put it this morning, "presumably for some mysteriously bellicose purposes."" Slate

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Ah! How cool! Possibilities:

1. Target vessel to be sunk in future exercise.

2. Experiment in sympathetic magic to learn if real carriers are attracted to come and roost with this one, something like a duck decoy.

3. Floating tourist attraction so that Iranian children can come and hurl stones at it.

23 January 2014

"At a separate meeting with U.S., European and Arab businessmen, Rouhani said Iran was seeking investment particularly in car manufacturing, oil and gas, petrochemicals, road and rail infrastructure and mining, a participant said. He ignored a question from two U.S. businessmen who said they had Israeli passports and asked if they could invest in Iran. The Islamic Republic does not recognise the Jewish state. Most sanctions, including a severe squeeze on Iran's access to the international financial system, remain in force and the United States has stressed Western companies should not regard Iran as "open for business." Reuters

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It will be interesting to see what wil be said by the Likudniks in the US Congress about this development. pl

11 January 2014

"The EU has reported "very good progress" at talks with Iran on the implementation of a deal on Iran's nuclear programme. The issue was now "under validation at political level in capitals", the EU's External Action Service said. Earlier Iran's deputy foreign minister was quoted as telling state media all outstanding issues had been resolved. In November Iran agreed a deal to freeze its nuclear programme in return for sanctions being eased. In recent weeks Iranian negotiators have been meeting with representatives of the "P5+1" group (US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany) to discuss how technical details of the deal would be implemented. "We found solutions for all the points of disagreement," Iran's deputy Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister earlier told state television, according to AFP. However, Mr Araqchi also said implementation of the agreement depended "on the final ratification of the capitals". He added that no further meetings at expert level were planned for the moment. For its part the US state department also said "good progress" had been made. "There have been a few outstanding issues, but at this point, the reports that everything has been finalised are incorrect," state department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said, according to Reuters." BBC

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What will happen if this progress in the talks is blocked by a veto proof majority in the US Congress that is determined to block an agreement by imposing additional sanctions? pl

12 December 2013

"In January 1946 the Allied Control Council set the foundation of the future German economy by putting a cap on German steel production, the maximum allowed was set at about 25% of the prewar production level.[43] Steel plants thus made redundant were dismantled. Also as a consequence of the Potsdam conference, the occupation forces of all nations were obliged to ensure that German standards of living were made equal to the level of its European neighbors with which it had been at war with, France in particular. Germany was to be reduced to the standard of life it had known in 1932.[need quotation to verify].[44] The first "level of industry" plan, signed in 1946, stated that German heavy industry was to be lowered to 50% of its 1938 levels by the closing of 1,500 manufacturing plants[45] The problems brought on by the execution of these types of policies were eventually apparent to most U.S. officials in Germany. Germany had long been the industrial giant of Europe, and its poverty held back the general European recovery[citation needed]. The continued scarcity in Germany also led to considerable expenses for the occupying powers, which were obligated to try and make up the most important shortfalls through the GARIOA program (Government and Relief in Occupied Areas). In view of the continued poverty and famine in Europe, and with the onset of the Cold War which made it important not to lose all of Germany to the communists, it was apparent by 1947 that a change of policy was required. The change was heralded by Restatement of Policy on Germany, a famous speech by James F. Byrnes, then United States Secretary of State, held in Stuttgart on September 6, 1946. Also known as the "Speech of hope" it set the tone of future US policy as it repudiated the Morgenthau Plan economic policies and with its message of change to a policy of economic reconstruction gave the Germans hope for the future. Herbert Hoover's situation reports from 1947, and "A Report on Germany" also served to help change occupation policy. The Western powers' worst fear by now was that the poverty and hunger would drive the Germans to Communism. General Lucius Clay stated "There is no choice between being a communist on 1,500 calories a day and a believer in democracy on a thousand." After lobbying by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Generals Clay and Marshall, the Truman administration realized that economic recovery in Europe could not go forward without the reconstruction of the German industrial base on which it had previously been dependent." Wiki

Having lived in occupied Germany as a small, but sentient, child I remember the atmosphere of hopelessness that hung over that country before the Morgenthau Plan as embodied in JCS 1067 was revoked in favor of a combined policy intended to re-build Europe as a modern region of the world that would not become dominated by communist parties and alliances with the USSR.

IMO we are facing a similarly motivated conception of what should happen to Iran. What I mean is that just as the Morgenthau Plan was motivated by Han Morgenthau's hatred, fear and desire for vengeance towards Germany, Bibi's hatred fear, and paranoia directed towards Iran is seeking to drive US and European policy towards a goal of making Iran into a country that makes oriental rugs just as he wanted Germany to be a country that made cuckoo clocks and strudel.

The level of pressure against Obama can be sensed in the waffling and ass k----g seen in every public statement made by Obama and Amtrak Joe on the subject. pl

05 December 2013

A monumental battle is shaping up in the United States Senate over the issue of new draconian sanctions against Iran. The House of Representatives has already passed a sanctions bill that would effectively shut down all remaining Iranian oil exports. A paralllel bill in the Senate has been so-far held back from a vote, but a bipartisan group of Senators, all under heavy AIPAC influence, are now vowing to ram through the sanctions bill regardless of the impact on the interim deal signed last month between the P5+1 and Iran. The White House is arguing, with considerable merit, that any new sanctions--even if delayed for the six month period of the interim agreement--would be seen as an act of bad faith and would likely guarantee that no final deal between the world powers and Iran would be feasible.

The Obama Administration has launched a serious effort to make the case that the Senate should refrain from such a flagrant act of sabotage. The National Security Council this week issued a 25-page paper to journalists showing broad bipartisan support for the deal with Iran. Unfortunately, the document only cited 17 Members of Congress who publicly backed the Administration. A second 19-page document was subsequently issued, showing broad international support for the negotiations with Iran. On Dec. 5, Wendy Sherman, Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs gave a classified briefing to every available Member of Congress. Secretary of State John Kerry, traveling in the Middle East to drum up support for the Iran negotiations, issued a video statement to Congress.

AIPAC has announced that passage of new Iran sanctions is their current number one legislative priority. Recently 76 Senators wrote to President Obama demanding a tougher stance with Iran. And a bipartisan group of senior Senators, including Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Bob Corker (R-Ten.) have vowed to push the sanctions through the Senate, either as a self-standing bill or an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

Corker was just in Saudi Arabia, where he was feted by Prince Bandar bin-Sultan, the head of Saudi Intelligence and the King's National Security Council. Bandar delayed his scheduled trip to Moscow to meet with President Putin to dedicate five hours to Corker, who also met with the Crown Prince, the Minister of Justice and the Head of the National Guard. He will no doubt return to Washington zealous to drive through the Iran sanctions.

The case for new sanctions was undercut by the fact that the French government already stepped in to strengthen the terms of the interim agreement by insisting that all construction had to be halted at the site of the heavy water reactor at Arak. The very same AIPAC and neo-conservative Senators and Congressmen who lauded the French (President Hollande was given a hero's welcome in Israel by Prime Minister Netanyahu after the French stalled the signing of the interim deal) for tightening the terms of the agreement are now the ones screaming the loudest that the deal--complete with the French revised language--is a sell-out to Tehran. Logic and truthfulness were never AIPAC's strong suits.

While President Obama is crashing in the polls, largely over the problems with Obamacare, the sequestration and the high unemployment, his foreign policy team, led by Secretary Kerry--not Susan Rice--is adament that Congress must stay out of the sensitive negotiating process. Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader, has the power to block the sanctions from coming to a vote. But Reid himself is not immune to AIPAC's powerful checkbook, if the past is any prologue. Hardliners in Tehran would love to see the deal go down the tubes as the result of American sabotage rather than their own intransigence.

Between now and January 7, 2014, the Senate is scheduled to be in session for exactly six days. The battle over Iran sanctions, what some astute observers have described as "AIPAC's Waterloo," may spill over into the New Year. But sooner or later, as the final status talks progress and Iran demonstrates whether or not it will fully comply with the interim deal, the issue will come to a head.

26 November 2013

- Israel is sending a team over to "help" us with the Iran negotiations. The servants of Israel in the Congress are trying to torpedo the second phase talks by moving the goal posts so far that they are out of reach for any place kicker. Maybe the Israeli team is going to advise them.

- Obamacare moves from weakness to weakness, relentlessly moving along a trajectory of ever increasing unpopularity while the administration hopes for a more or less miraculous shift in public sentiment if they can make the federal website work.

- The Congress is basically flummoxed in its effort to decide what might be national priorities in a budget. The Republicans appear to be more interested in destroying Obama than in anything else.

- Karzai told the charming Susan Rice to hit the road after raising the ante. You heard it first here. Heard what? We told you that there would not be US troops in Afghanistan after next year.

- The police report on the Lanza creature reveals to the amazement of the NE mommy crowd that he had no specific motive. He was merely mad. Look at all the mass shooter types. They are all mad.

Sometimes you eat the bear. Sometimes the bear eats you. I hope they have a happy Thanksgiving in the White House. pl

One of the amusing and contemptibly ignorant things being said in the media today is the use of the phrase above. Once again, this kind of expressed ignorance fosters the impression that a crippling attack on what may or may not be an Iranian nuclear weapons program would consist of a one time attack by a few dozen aircraft. IMO that would not be the case. In fact what would be involved would be an aviation and missile campaign that would necessairly include hundreds or thousands of air and missile sorties.

B-2 and B-1 bombers, B-52 bombers, missile strikes, naval air and tactical air flying from Saudi Arabia, search and rescue operations for downed aircrew, all this would be involved. pl

"According to the agreement, Iran would agree to stop enriching uranium beyond 5 percent. To make good on that pledge, Iran would dismantle links between networks of centrifuges.

All of Iran’s stockpile of uranium that has been enriched to 20 percent, a short hop to weapons-grade fuel, would be diluted or converted into oxide so that it could not be readily used for military purposes.

No new centrifuges, neither old models nor newer more efficient ones, could be installed. Centrifuges that have been installed but which are not currently operating could not be started up.

The agreement, however, would not require Iran to stop enriching uranium to a level of 3.5 percent or dismantle any of its existing centrifuges."

Once the Israeli Prime Minister makes a formal response, I'll post an update...

* Adam L. Silverman is the Cultural Advisor at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

To get an even better idea of what Gillon and five of his former colleagues think about the reality, let alone the need, for speaking to Israel's adversaries, you should check out the documentary the Gatekeepers that I wrote about last Spring. So you don't have to watch the whole thing right this minute, check out this promotional video starting at the 6:01 mark. I especially like the remarks of Avraham Shalom, the oldest of the six former Shin Bet directors interviewed for the film starting at the 6:07 mark.

* Adam L. Silverman is the Cultural Advisor at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

** This is covered in the Gatekeepers documentary, including Gillon's attempts to get Rabin to take the potential threat to his life as a result of opposition to the peace process, as well as incendiary political and religious rhetoric related to the Israeli political campaigns that were taking place at the time.

08 November 2013

"Netanyahu said Friday that he "utterly rejects" the emerging nuclear deal between western powers and Iran, calling it a "bad deal" and promised that Israel will do everything it needs to do to defend itself. "I understand the Iranians are walking around very satisfied in Geneva as well they should because they got everything and paid nothing," Netanyahu told reporters before meeting with Kerry in Tel Aviv. "They wanted relief of sanctions after years of grueling sanctions, they got that. They paid nothing because they are not reducing in any way their nuclear enrichment capability. So Iran got the deal of the century and the international community got a bad deal," Netanyahu said. "This is a very bad deal and Israel utterly rejects it. Israel is not obliged by this agreement and Israel will do everything it needs to do to defend itself and defend the security of its people," he said." foxnews

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Well, there you have it. We Americans and Europeans are naughty, disobedient children. We think that we can make a deal with Iran without fulfilling Israel's maximalist goals. How dare we! Ah! I forgot. Israel's flunkies in Congress are going to obey their masters to try to block the deal. Perhaps this time they might find that an unpopular thing to do.

"will do everything it needs to do to defend itself." Hey! Go for it! Israel is a sovereign state. Let's see what they can do! pl

07 November 2013

"Syrian troops have retaken a key rebel-held town south of Damascus, state media and activists say.
State TV said the army had full control of Sbeineh and that "terrorists" had been driven out.
UK-based activist group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Sbeineh was one of the most important rebel positions near Damascus.
Meanwhile, inspectors say they have verified one of Syria's two remaining chemical weapons production sites.
Inspectors had already verified 21 out of 23 sites declared by Syria but two sites were too dangerous to reach.
They said the latest site - near Aleppo - was verified using footage from sealed cameras and that it was dismantled and abandoned." BBC

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As TTG wrote, the Syrian government is making steady progress in its campaign of pacification. The Saudis face deep humiliation in this latest example of their drive for Sunni triumphalism in the Levant. This project is decades long now and has had remarkably little success.

At the same time, the UN has gone competently forward in the work of eliminating CW production and weapons stockpiles. There is a certain amount of "logrolling" going on in Washington for the notion that Syria is somehow not living up to its undertakings in this matter. No evidence has been produced for public view so this is just more rumor. pl

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The last time Kerry spent so much time over so many days with Netanyahu and Abbas was in July, when the two leaders agreed to enter direct peace talks for the first time in three years. More than three months later, after a dozen meetings between their teams, there are visible cracks in the negotiations.
Both Netanyahu and Abbas warned early this week of growing tensions in the private discussions, and public potshots between the two sides have escalated.
Speaking before a three-hour session with Kerry on Wednesday morning, Netanyahu accused the Palestinians of “continuing to create artificial crises, continuing to . . . run away from the historic decisions that are needed to make a genuine peace.” Washpost

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Kerry is trying to make something out of nothing. The various parties to the Palestine dispute remain unwilling to create an actual and viable settlement of the matter. For some reason he does not understand that. pl

03 November 2013

"Iran's supreme leader gave strong backing on Sunday to his president's push for nuclear negotiations, warning hardliners not to accuse Hassan Rouhani of compromising with the old enemy America.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's comments will help shield Rouhani, who has sought to thaw relations with the West since his surprise election in June, from accusations of being soft on the United States, often characterized in the Islamic Republic as the "Great Satan".
Iran will resume negotiations with six world powers, including the United States, in Geneva on Thursday, talks aimed at ending a standoff over its nuclear work that Tehran denies is weapons-related.
Rouhani hopes a deal there will mean an end to sanctions that have cut the OPEC country's oil exports and hurt the wider economy, but any concession that looks like Iran is compromising on what it sees as its sovereign right to peaceful nuclear technology will be strongly resisted by conservatives.
"No one should consider our negotiators as compromisers," Khamenei said in a speech, a day before the November 4 anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, a pivotal event in U.S.-Iranian relations, the ISNA news agency reported.
"They have a difficult mission and no one must weaken an official who is busy with work," said Khamenei, who wields ultimate power in Iran's dual clerical-republic system, including over the nuclear program." Reuters

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This will make it more difficult for the Likud/Aipac/WINEP forces to maintain their propaganda theme concerning the false nature of iranian negotiating positions, but they will manage. pl

07 October 2013

Good strategy requires the identification of an achievable
objective that can be obtained at a reasonable cost. President Obama and his senior officials have
done exactly that with respect to Iran.
President Obama has repeatedly said that America’s overriding strategic
objective is to “prevent
Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
This is a clear strategic objective that with honest effort on both
sides is reasonably attainable through diplomatic means.

President
Obama in his recent address to the United Nations reiterated his strategic
goal of prevention, endorsed Iran’s right to a civilian nuclear program, and
sought to reassure Iranian leaders that regime change was not the goal of U.S.
policy. Meanwhile, recently elected Iranian
President Rouhani has pledged to provide additional transparency in order
to reassure the international community that Iranian nuclear programs and
technologies are indeed purely civilian in nature. In these public statements both leaders have
thus sketched the broad outlines of a mutually acceptable deal. Iran secures international acceptance of a
limited civilian nuclear program in exchange for enhanced inspections that ensure these activities are not diverted to military
purposes. Formulating a detailed
step-by-step plan for easing sanctions tied to specific Iranian actions is the
next critical step in filling out this strategic diplomatic option.

20 September 2013

"At their core, the vicious battles in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria are over the nature of those countries’ identities and their consequent roles in our region and the world. The centrality of identity extends to the case of our peaceful nuclear energy program. To us, mastering the atomic fuel cycle and generating nuclear power is as much about diversifying our energy resources as it is about who Iranians are as a nation, our demand for dignity and respect and our consequent place in the world. Without comprehending the role of identity, many issues we all face will remain unresolved. " Rouhani

17 September 2013

On Saturday TTG brought reports of diplomatic outreach between the US and Iran.Yesterday Eric Follath reported in Der Spiegel that Iran's new president, Hassan Rohani, is prepared to decommission the Fordo nuclear installation that is about 20 kilometers from the Holy City of Qom. This offer would be made as concessions in exchange for the US ultimately lifting sanctions. While there is no way to know if the Follath has a real scoop, or if he has a big a scoop as it appears, there is some overlap with what TTG wrote about. And regardless of the outcome signs of diplomacy actually taking place should always be a welcome sight.

* Adam L. Silverman is the Cultural Advisor at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

14 September 2013

Some Iranian news agencies have reported that a message from Obama was carried to Iran last month by Oman’s ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, whose country was a mediator before — when Iran released three Americans convicted of espionage despite claims they innocently crossed the border while hiking in Iraq in 2009. The Obama administration has indicated interest in possible groundbreaking one-on-one nuclear talks with Iran after nearly 35 years of diplomatic estrangement. Envoys from Iran and the U.S. have previously held meetings on Iraq mediated by Baghdad officials.

The push for possible Iran-U.S. dialogue received a boost by the alleged chemical weapons attack in Syria, which the U.S. and allies have blamed on Assad’s forces. Obama has suggested Iran — a strong opponent of chemical weapons — could help pressure ally Assad into accepting a Russian-brokered plan to surrender stockpiles of lethal gas to international control. Iran suffered chemical attacks from Saddam Hussein’s forces — then backed by Washington — in the 1980-88 war with Iraq. (Washington Post)

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The Obama administration on Tuesday eased longstanding restraints on humanitarian and good-will activities between Iran and the United States, including athletic exchanges. It was at least the second American government relaxation of Iranian sanctions this year and came as Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, has signaled his desire to improve relations.

19 August 2013

- Fighting continues in the Sinai Peninsula with Israeli and Egyptian forces cooperating more than they ever have before. At least 24 egyptian policemen have died in a jihadi ambush at Rafa on the Israeli border. The Israelis tell me that they are very hopeful that the US will not cut off military aid to Egypt.

- Husni Mubarak may soon be released from prison. He is a lucky man, Mursi might well have had him hanged on general principles. Now.... The shoe is on the other foot. BTW, the search for Mubarak's "billions" of stolen money never got anywhere. They found a few hundred million. In the ME that is chicken feed. Egyptians tell me that Amre Mousa is the preferred candidate of the military for an eventual presidential election. He is a non-entity with a long history.

- UN chemical weapons investigators began work in Syria today. They are to determine if CW was used and by whom. They are at work in spite of US obstructionism in New York. IMO the result of their work may be the next big embarassment for Obama. There is a reason why the Syrian government is so willing to have the UN investigate this matter.

- The US media in its eagerness to support the naive poliicy of the Obama Administrations and the Congress continues to exagerate the importance of the 1.3 billion $ that we give Egypt in the form of credits we do not expect to have repayed. Egypt has reacted to this talk. Their government has now stated that it, too, will examine its relations with states that have sought to "interfere" with Egypt's internal affairs. The Gulf will easily replace moneys lost in disappeared US aid. The highly complex equipment provided by the US to Egypt in the expectation that Egypt could be a worthwhile internation "player" is not needed by Egypt. The material exceeds Egypt's needs and capacity for absorption. For the Egyptians the possession of such equipment is a matter of national pride. Egyptian forces are really internal security forces. It does not matter if they want to admit that or not. The kind of equipment they really need is widely available on international markets. At the same time, to prevent sales of spare parts for equipment now in Egyptian hands, the US Government would have to take executive or legislative action to prevent private sales of spare parts to the Egyptian government. Would they really want to do that to companies like Lockheed-Martin and General Dynamics? Personnel training? Don't kid yourself, there are lots of places for very fine training. India comes to mind. And lastly, a rupture of relations would cost the US automatic overflight clearance priviliages and queueing privileges in the canal.

- And then there is the Kerryesque farce in Palestine where the Israelis are playing us for suckers once again and the Palestinians are enduring yet another humiliation. The Israelis have no intention of creating a viable Palestinian state as a rival. All else is tactics and playing nice with the ignorant Americans.

07 August 2013

Egypt does not want McCain and Graham? How strange. The new government says it does not want to be interfered with by ajanib (foreigners). How strange. Bill Burns, the EU people, the Qataris, etc. have all been made to look foolish and the United States along with them.

It has been a long time since "the music died." These days it is difficult to hear even a distant echo.

Having tried so nobly to tell Egypt how to behave it would seem only right that the McCain/Graham peace train should roll on to yet more and even browner pastures. A bus trip across Sinai and through the territory of their friends would bring them to Damascus where they could once again work their magic.

A useful extention of their voyage northward would give them a chance to counsel Erdogan and the Ataturk Turks to love one another

And then the road or track will lead east to the Iraq that they did so much to transform.

The Iranians will undoubtedly greet them at the border as peacemakers and they can work out whatever difficulties there may be with President Rouhani and be back home to enjoy the rest of the Summer recess.