NFL Strength of Schedule

byTravis Reed

Yesterday, I posted an update to the NFL simulation. Along with the projected wins for each team, I noted that the Saints had the easiest schedule among other things. This resulted in some feedback and questions from fans asking how easy their team’s schedule was down the stretch.

So I dove back into the numbers and determined the strength of schedule for all 32 NFL teams and ranked them. Here’s how it works:

I calculated the probability of each team to win each game for the rest of the season. I then made all teams a .500 team and looked at their projected win percentage over the rest of the season. So this isn’t displaying each team’s projected winning percentage, it’s calculating how an 8-8 team would do against each team’s remaining schedule. Clear as mud, right? Here are the results:

TEAM

Avg Team Win %

Home Games

Road Games

Saints

56.55%

TEN, CAR, DET, JAX

WAS, HOU, TB, ATL

Jaguars

54.05%

TEN, SD, IND, ATL

NYJ, BAL, TEN, NO, HOU

Falcons

54.02%

IND, MIN, CAR, NO

SF, TB, CAR, JAX

Bengals

53.18%

CLE, HOU, STL, PIT, BAL

ARI, CLE, SF, DEN

Eagles

52.75%

MIA, TB, BUF, ARI, WAS

DAL, DET, NE, NYG

Bears

52.29%

DEN, SF, WAS, DET

SD, STL, GB, MIN, TB

Colts

52.20%

DEN, TB, HOU, TEN

ATL, PIT, JAX, MIA

Bucs

52.05%

NYG, DAL, ATL, NO, CHI

PHI, IND, STL, CAR

Chiefs

51.98%

BUF, SD, CLE, OAK

DEN, SD, OAK, BAL

Rams

51.91%

CHI, ARI, DET, TB

MIN, BAL, CIN, SEA, SF

Lions

50.96%

OAK, PHI, GB, SF

GB, STL, NO, CHI

Ravens

50.94%

JAX, STL, SEA, KC, PIT

CLE, MIA, CIN

Jets

50.25%

JAX, BUF, MIA, TEN, NE

HOU, NYG, DAL, BUF

Titans

49.22%

CAR, OAK, JAX, HOU

NO, JAX, NYJ, NE, IND

Chargers

48.99%

CHI, KC, DEN, MIA

JAX, KC, OAK, DEN

Steelers

48.70%

OAK, CLE, IND, DEN

SEA, CIN, BAL, CLE

Broncos

48.59%

KC, NE, OAK, CIN, SD

IND, CHI, SD, PIT

Patriots

48.33%

WAS, BUF, PHI, TEN

NYG, DEN, HOU, NYJ, MIA

Seahawks

48.25%

ARI, SF, PIT, CLE, STL

MIN, BAL, ARI

49ers

48.05%

ATL, ARI, CIN, STL

SEA, CHI, CLE, DET

Packers

47.96%

DET, CHI, CAL, MIN

CAR, MIN, DET, OAK, ARI

Raiders

47.81%

MIN, KC, GB, SD

PIT, DET, TEN, DEN, KC

Texans

47.33%

NYJ, NO, NE, JAX

CIN, BUF, IND, TEN, JAX

Panthers

47.04%

GB, WAS, ATL, TB

TEN, DAL, NO, NYG, ATL

Cowboys

46.41%

PHI, CAR, NYJ, WAS

TB, MIA, WAS, GB, BUF

Dolphins

45.59%

DAL, BAL, NYG, IND, NE

BUF, PHI, NYJ, SD

Browns

45.30%

BAL, CIN, SF, PIT

CIN, PIT, SEA, KC

Cardinals

43.75%

CIN, MIN, GB, SEA

SEA, SF, STL, PHI

Vikings

43.16%

STL, GB, SEA, CHI, NYG

OAK, ATL, ARI, GB

Bills

42.78%

MIA, HOU, DAL, NYJ

NYJ, NE, KC, PHI, WAS

Giants

42.52%

NE, NYJ, CAR, PHI

TB, WAS, MIA, MIN

Redskins

42.42%

NO, NYG, DAL, BUF

NE, CAR, CHI, PHI, DAL

The Saints have the easiest schedule remaining of all teams. They still have one game each against their three division rivals, but the rest is filled with the Titans, Lions, Jaguars, Redskins, and Texans. The problem for the Saints is the team directly above them in the standings, the Falcons, have the 3rd easiest schedule.

In yesterday’s post, I had the Vikings with the toughest schedule, but with this method the Redskins claim the dubious honor. Washington’s tough trail begins with a road game in Foxboro on Sunday. Washington also has some bad scheduling luck as they will presumably face the Cowboys twice with Tony Romo starting rather than the teams that lucked out by facing Brandon Weeden or Matt Cassel.

The update doesn’t let Minnesota completely off the hook. They still play the Packers twice, along with road games against the Raiders, Falcons, and Cardinals. The Vikings could be battling the Rams for the final playoff spot in the NFC, so Sunday’s head-to-head tiebreaker could wind up making the difference once the dust settles in Week 17.

The Bengals are already 8-0 and have a great slate set up in front of them. Home games against the Browns, Texans, Rams, and Steelers all figure to see the Bengals as legitimate favorites although St. Louis and Pittsburgh aren’t automatic by any means. The most likely spots for Cincinnati to falter will be in Week 11 at Arizona and Week 16 at Denver on Monday Night Football.