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Hepburn: The odds on who will be Ontario’s next premier

Will Sandra Pupatello be able to maintain her front-runner status and win the Ontario Liberal leadership race? Can Kathleen Wynne gain some momentum and leap ahead of Pupatello on the second or third ballot?

Don’t expect quick answers at the Jan. 25-27 leadership convention, though, because the winner likely won’t be confirmed until the third or fourth ballot. For the 2,300 delegates, it’s shaping up as a long, long voting day, with no dominant first-ballot front-runner.

After the first ballot, elected delegates are free to vote for whomever they want, with the last-place finisher on each ballot automatically dropping out of the race.

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That’s when the fun — and deal-making — really starts.

Here, after meeting with all the candidates except Takhar and speaking with members of their campaign teams, are my odds of winning for each contender.

Sandra Pupatello (6 to 5): She surprised even her own campaign team by finishing first in last weekend’s election to pick delegates to the convention. She won 504, or about 27 per cent, of the delegates. She likely will lead on the first ballot and has lots of room to grow on subsequent ballots. She’s smart, feisty, a favourite of party veterans.

Watch for Pupatello to stress the party’s traditions. Over the past 100 years, the Liberals have chosen only two leaders from the Toronto area and have almost always picked a centre-right leader. That’s exactly how Pupatello is promoting herself: as fiscally conservative and as being from outside the GTA. Taken together with her cabinet experience, she claims these attributes make her the lone candidate with the “electability” factor needed to fight the Tories and NDP in a provincial election.

Kathleen Wynne (3 to 1): She came a disappointing second last weekend when she won just 25 per cent of the elected delegates. Her chances of winning the leadership would have improved dramatically if she had been ahead of Pupatello at this stage. A favourite of the left-wing downtown Toronto crowd, her growth potential on second and third ballots is seen as limited outside of Toronto.

Watch for her to work hard after the first ballot to convince hesitant delegates that her brand of social policy liberalism is best for the Liberals and the province even in these tough economic times. To help do this, she needs Kennedy to drop out early and deliver all his support to her.

Gerard Kennedy (25 to 1): He finished third in the delegate fight last weekend, winning 14 per cent. Having quit the McGuinty cabinet in 2006, Kennedy is seen as scandal-free, as a relative “outsider” and as a pragmatic progressive. But his potential for growth after the first ballot is limited.

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Look for him to stay on the ballot through three rounds of voting, then, in a surprise move, release his delegates to vote as they wish rather than formally endorse either Wynne or Pupatello.

Harinder Takhar (200 to 1): He shocked party insiders last weekend by finishing a close fourth behind Kennedy with 13 per cent of elected delegates. He has little or no growth potential, though, because of his tainted record as a cabinet minister. Watch for him to stay for at least two ballots, then throw his support to Pupatello, who shares his business-minded conservatism.

Charles Sousa (500 to 1): He was crushed by his weak fifth-place finish in the delegate selection voting. Sousa ran a decent campaign, but never caught on with Liberals. Watch for him to voluntarily drop out after the first ballot and support Pupatello.

Eric Hoskins (1,000 to 1): Once touted as the dark horse in the race and a possible compromise candidate if he could reach the third ballot, he will finish dead last on the first ballot. He failed last weekend even to win the delegate contest in his own riding. Watch for him to surprise delegates by endorsing Pupatello, arguing she has a better chance of winning the next election than Wynne, with whom he is more ideologically aligned.

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