The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (February 1).

The value of total retail sales in December 2017, provisionally estimated at $44.8 billion, increased by 5.8% over the same month in 2016. The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in November 2017 increased by 7.6% over a year earlier.

After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales in December 2017 increased by 4.3% over a year earlier. The revised estimate of the volume of total retail sales in November 2017 increased by 7.0% over a year earlier.

Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of the provisional estimate of the value of sales and comparing December 2017 with December 2016, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts increased by 6.3%. This was followed by sales of wearing apparel (+6.5% in value); commodities in department stores (+4.0%); medicines and cosmetics (+11.4%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+1.1%); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (+9.4%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+21.0%); electrical goods and photographic equipment (+12.2%); motor vehicles and parts (+2.2%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+3.3%); fuels (+1.1%); furniture and fixtures (+2.1%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (+3.0%); and optical shops (+3.5%).

On the other hand, the value of sales of commodities in supermarkets decreased by 2.8% in December 2017 compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of Chinese drugs and herbs (-6.6% in value).

Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the provisional estimate of the value of total retail sales increased by 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017 over the preceding quarter, while the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales increased by 1.8%.

For 2017 as a whole, the value of total retail sales was provisionally estimated at $446.1 billion, increasing by 2.2% in value and 1.9% in volume over 2016.

Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of the provisional estimate of the value of sales and comparing the whole year of 2017 with the whole year of 2016, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts increased by 5.2%. This was followed by sales of wearing apparel (+0.6% in value); commodities in department stores (+3.4%); medicines and cosmetics (+5.5%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+3.2%); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (+7.0%); motor vehicles and parts (+3.1%); fuels (+4.0%); furniture and fixtures (+2.2%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (+1.0%); Chinese drugs and herbs (+3.6%); and optical shops (+1.1%).

On the other hand, the value of sales of commodities in supermarkets decreased by 0.2% in 2017 compared with 2016. This was followed by sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment (-9.0% in value); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (-1.8%); and footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-2.1%).

These retail sales statistics measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments and are primarily intended for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services (such as those on housing, catering, medical care and health services, transport and communication, financial services, education and entertainment) which account for over 50% of the overall consumer spending. Moreover, they include spending on goods in Hong Kong by visitors but exclude spending outside Hong Kong by Hong Kong residents. Hence they should not be regarded as indicators for measuring overall consumer spending.

Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product published at quarterly intervals. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether locally or abroad. Please refer to the C&SD publication "Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly)" for more details.

Commentary

A government spokesman indicated that retail sales increased solidly in December 2017 over a year earlier, reflecting the upbeat consumption sentiment amid favourable employment and income conditions. The continued revival of inbound tourism also helped. For 2017 as a whole, retail sales resumed modest growth, having declined on an annual basis since 2014.

The near-term outlook for the retail trade stays positive, given the more sanguine economic situation and improving inbound tourism. The Government will closely monitor the situation.

Further information

Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for November 2017 as well as the provisional figures for December 2017. The provisional figures on the value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet as well as the corresponding year-on-year changes for the whole year of 2017 are also shown.

Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for November 2017 as well as the provisional figures for December 2017. The provisional figures on year-on-year changes for the whole year of 2017 are also shown.

Table 3 shows the movements of the value and volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.

The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.