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The Television in 2015: 3 Bold Predictions

The media market is in the middle of a revolution -- no, make that several revolutions.

The living room gear that starts to make a market impact in 2015 will make today's high-def screens as quaintly obsolete as a black and white tube. All that delicious new hardware requires a new breed of content, and perhaps the biggest surprise of all is who you won't see tapping into these new opportunities.

In this video, Fool analyst Anders Bylund presents three unstoppable trends in living room entertainment that will hit home by 2015.

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I want that 4 minutes back that I wasted watching this video. Wow. Does Motley Fool, and now Yahoo, let anybody through their system? Yes, I agree, Apple, the largest, most profitable Company on the planet is just going to sit back and watch this revolution go by! Once again, Motley Fool has destroyed what little credibility they have by allowing these types of posts to be aired.

I have to agree with him that I think it would be foolish for Apple to get into TVs. There is little profit in them. Thing is Apple has enough people with too much money too little brains that just may pay for an overpriced do nothing truly special TV just because it has a fruit on it.

4k is new and it is obvious just like 1080p that when more manufactures produce sets featuring this and the price drops people will buy the better picture, companies will produce more media in it, and the market will grow. So that is a no brainer.

Most people I know already use streaming and digital services like Netflix, Amazon Live and online pay per view services more than Blu-Ray or DVD. So it already has taken over and is growing. Proof of that is the new Red Box service.

I still use Blu-Ray and DVD but they are in the background, I use flash drives more to take media with me. So once again no surprise there.

Personally I would rather TVs go to being nothing more than displays, all the features built into a TV to me is a waste when they should just do what they can to make the display as cool running efficient and durable as possible. Features should be provided by set top boxes maybe connected wireless. WiFi should be the only included feature, they should even discontinue tuners just having basic on and off with everything else being controlled by connected components.

AV Receiver should be the linking piece of equipment providing the audio portion and connectivity with the display. Set top boxes should provide content, be it Apple TV, Cable, FIOS, Roku, WD Live, HTPC or whatever media device you stream or play media through.

This allows you to upgrade whichever part is changed with improvements easier and more frequently because you aren't replacing the whole system. Which could become more profitable for the manufacturers because of the volume of buyers keeping up with change.

Sadly our society has gotten fixed that all in ones are better because they can be built cheaper than individual components, but now when your smart phone dies you lose your phone, camera, GPS, and daily organizers, etc... Instead of paying $50 for a new phone you are paying $150 to $600 for your new smart phone.

4K is already available at much lower cost, e.g. Tiger Direct is selling a 50 Inch set by Seiki for US$ 1499 and now in stock.

However, 4K is not truly of much consumer value due to lack of content and limits of the resolution we can actually perceive in typical usage scenarios. In fact, 3D can do more visual value on TVs than 4K in typical sizes under 70" when you sit in the average living room. Still 3D lost MSRP value very quickly

Most people don't know that the picture contrast has much more value for perceived video quality than resolution for your average TV. Thus OLED is a far more valuable technology than 4K is for perceived picture quality on typical TVs. OLED is however going to stay expensive much longer. 4K can be made using existing LCD factories at minimal incremental cost.

Still 4K will come and people will buy it; but with the limited value and low cost of adding it, the MSRP delta will drop rapidly, as already showed by Seiki's 50" model.

Streaming services are already factual and will just continue growing. 4K streaming will be a small fragment of overall video streaming as few TVs can benefit from it and few consumers will have fast enough internet.

4K is most likely going to be relevant as 4K video recording becomes more standard in digital cameras and mobile phones soon (the component roadmaps have it all coming).

Apple will continue developing improvements to their Apple TV box experience adding camera capabilities and apps support eventually targeting an iOS based gaming console experience utilizing their mobile devices in a gaming eco system. Even the margins for TVs are low; Apple will still aim at making TVs to complete the N-screen eco-system experience.

The battle of apps frameworks will continue also on the TV screen involving Google, Apple and Microsoft.

I don’t mean to be overly critical but if the 4k content is like this then 4k hardware is doomed. In any respect, I don’t think TV manufactures want this guy pitching there next gen TVs.

4k is an evolutionary feature creep rather that a revolutionary hardware change. This may have a better chance than 3D TV but the fact is that most consumers keep their TVs for at least 5 years and then the old TV gets put in the extra bedroom.

The last attempt at hardware revolution was 3D TVs. For a long time you could count the number of 3D titles worth buying on one hand and even then the home experience was not worth the hassle of putting on the 3D glasses. Without content, the drive to upgrade is limited. The TVs sold when the price dropped but it was for the Smart TV features and 1080P quality more than the added benefit of 3D.

So this will be another split in the market that will just cannibalize the existing Blu-ray market. But the market will remain small as most consumers have already upgraded their hardware and will not have a reason to buy another TV until the price drops to an affordable range. If they have a 720P TV they will only purchase a TV out of replacement necessity.

The target market with enough disposable income to replace an existing 1080p TV with the next gen hardware is more than likely wearing glasses. Screen quality from 1080P to 4k will not be that big of difference in value for the money. So the market for differential screen quality will be limited to early adopters.

Streaming fatter content will require a fat pipe from your internet provider this further limits the market to early adopters consumers with the additional disposable income.

The obstacle that TV manufactures have to account for is that TV is use primarily for entertainment. Most viewers get so caught up the in content that they almost transcend into a trance like state. First and foremost it is the content that entertains not the hardware and the old hardware will satisfy that need for years to come.

Regarding Apple TV, early speculation of a physical TV could still happen but what apple does is to disturb the existing market with a combination of hardware, software, and UI that dynamically changes the users experience. In other words, they manufacture a monopoly that they can charge in kind for. Their customer base is primarily early adopters with the disposable income to feed their need to be the first in their social circle with the latest technology. Apple has history of building on their current technology and taking it to the next level of hardware while still maintaining existing products. It is obvious that the next evolution will be incorporating SIRI in to existing Apple TV hardware. This will level the playing field for users and grand ma will finally be able to store a show on her Apple TV or DVR. If it was on the market I would buy one for my mother now so that I would have to waste an hour every visit explaining to her how to record and playback her favorite show. As hardware continues to have a smaller foot print it makes since that it may be incorporated into the TV set but there will always be a separate Apple TV unit for legacy TVs in the home.