NEW: Iraq 2014 parliament elections special: General overview article written for Foreign Affairs
(with an unduly optimistic headline), an article on
Iranian influences in the Iraqi elections written for BBC Persian with
English original available here, and a piece on
US policy issues in the Iraqi election written for the Middle East Institute. For further articles and continuing coverage of the results of the 2014 Iraq parliament elections, visit my WordPress blog.

31 May 2012: Is Maliki About to Fall? Feature on the attempts to bring a no confidence vote against the Iraqi prime minister. With comments to AFP about the P5 plus 1 meeting on the Iranian nuclear file in Baghdad and quotes by The New York Times on the question of the influence of Ayatollah Shahrudi in Najaf and the Sistani succession and by The Financial Times on Maliki's survival strategies.

10 September 2009: Identity Carved, published in The National (Abu Dhabi). On how the policies of Iran and the Obama Administration converge in surprising ways in northern Iraq. With comments to the Daily Telegraph.

15 December 2008: The Basra Federalism Initiative Enters Stage Two. The process is scheduled to last until 14 January 2009 and 140,939 signatures (10% of the Basra electorate) are needed to call a referendum. (This article is also quoted in a story on Basra by CNN.)

16 June 2008: Iraq’s Provincial Elections: Another D-Day Approaching. On how manipulations by the Maliki government could affect the upcoming provincial elections and the entire regional balance of power. With additional comments on developments among the Sadrists and the security situation in Amara to Reuters and AFP (in French).

The narrative that just doesn’t work: “On the other hand, if we succeed in Iraq after all that al-Qaida and Iran have invested there, it would be a historic blow to the global terrorist movement and a severe setback for Iran. It would demonstrate to a watching world that mainstream Arabs reject the ideology of al-Qaida, and mainstream Shiites reject the ideology of Iran’s radical regime.” (George Bush, 10 April 2008). “Mainstream Shiites”, yes, but apparently not Bush's own favourites, such as Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, pictured here in a recent meeting with Iran’s Ali Khamenei. “Rejection” simply isn’t the term that comes to mind.

Basra is burning: After having first tried to distinguish between moderate Sadrists and radical splinter cells loyal to Iran, the US and the UK have now uncritically and even enthusiastically espoused Nuri al-Maliki's apparent attempt at a more general war against Muqtada al-Sadr. This despite (some claim because of) repeated signals that the Sadrists are committed to the political process and want to contest the local elections.

13 December 2007: Nonsense of Congress on Federalism in Iraq. On the adoption by the US Congress of the 2008 defence authorisation bill. Also available is a background paper relevant to the forthcoming British handover of Basra (scheduled for 16 December), with a focus on the tensions which British and US military authorities are overlooking – and which the Iraqi government want them to overlook. With comments on the security situation in the far south to Reuters, regarding Basra and Amara.

8 October 2007: The Planned Basra Handover; Iraqi Reactions to the US Senate Vote on Federalism. Critical perspective on the timing of the British handover plans in Basra published at The Atlantic Community, plus Iraqi reactions to the US Senate vote on federalism and what they mean to US policy: op-ed in The News Journal published in Wilmington, Delaware – the home state of Senator Joseph Biden, the principal American advocate of “soft partition” in Iraq. Also related news story on Basra in Newsday (Long Island/NYC) and on the Council on Foreign Relations website, and a letter to the editor published in The Hill (Washington, D.C.) about contradictions in Biden’s claim to have a distinctive “Iraq plan”.

14 September 2007: US Policy in Iraq at a Crossroads. Critical perspective on how the “surge” is working in areas south of Baghdad in Terrorism Monitor (also reprinted in a shorter version in Asia Times Online), and an op-ed on the “partition” alternative, published at the History News Network, with related coverage in the cover story of the 1 October issue of Maclean’s, the Canadian national weekly. Also comments to the Berlin-based Atlantic Community on US policy in Iraq, and the prospects of a European role.

19 August 2007: Another Bout of Partitionism. The campaign for an Iraq divided on the basis of ethnic and sectarian identities adds some academics to its ranks, but the arguments for partition remain as unconvincing as ever. Review of Edward P. Joseph and Michael E. O’Hanlon, “The Case for Soft Partition in Iraq”, and Amitai Etzioni, “Plan Z: A Community Based Security Plan for Iraq”. With related interview in The New York Times (19 August 2007), and comments in The Boston Globe (21 August 2007) and The International Herald Tribune (via AP, 22 August) on the US failure to activate Iraqi nationalist sentiment for instance by reaching out beyond the Maliki government. Additional coverage at The Huffington Post and in The Baltimore Chronicle and Sentinel.

17 July 2007: The Gibraltar That Never Was. Paper presented to the British World conference, Bristol, 11–14 July 2007, originally titled “A Rigid Conception of Britishness: Imperialism, Local Regionalism and Transnational Links among the British of Basra and Abadan, 1890–1940” and published here with an epilogue on the contemporary geopolitics of the Shatt al-Arab delta and some reflections on current British and US policies.

11 January 2007: What Exactly Is Washington Surging for in Iraq? On the problems of implementing a troop surge without including a credible political component. (Also reprinted in The Arab American News, Michigan, and published at openDemocracy.) For a discussion of why the “alternative” policy proposed by Senator Joseph Biden is even more problematic – and could amount to presenting the whole Middle East to al-Qaida on a silver platter – see the historical background essay “Other People’s Maps”, published in the Wilson Quarterly (Winter 2007) by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC.

23 May 2006: The Maliki Government – What It Could Mean to Southern Iraq. Nuri al-Maliki is seeking allies in an unruly periphery. For a related news story and interview, see “Iraq's Premier Sets State of Emergency for Southern City” in The Washington Post 1 June 2006. Maliki’s singling out of a mainly Shiite governorate in this first major demonstration of power illustrates the futility of reducing complex Iraqi politics to a conflict between three ethno-religious groups. With an addendum dated 9 June 2006 on the completion of the Maliki government.

19 May 2006: Iraq and the Partition Fantasy. Comment article published at openDemocracy. On recent federal and confederal schemes for Iraq (especially the Biden & Gelb proposal), with discussion of relevant issues in the upcoming revision of the Iraqi constitution – particularly with regard to the implementation of federalism. Also available in an Arabic translation (PDF) published by al-‘Arab al-Usbu‘i (London). This version was not prepared in consultation with the author and contains some divergences from the original text. Please refer to the English text in case of any ambiguity.

Is a second Iran emerging in Iraq? This study covers Sistani’s interaction with key concepts in contemporary Iraqi political debate, like democracy, federalism and the “rule of the jurisprudent” (wilayat al-faqih).

13 December 2005: Towards Sectarian Separatism in Iraq? The 15 December elections may determine whether abstract scenarios of disintegration are transformed into hard political realities.

7 December 2005: Norway’s Oil Industry and the Partitioning of Iraq. Norway’s first steps off the beaten track in Iraq are distinctly undiplomatic. (Translation of comment article published in Norwegian in Dagbladet (Oslo), with additional excerpts from the Iraqi constitution, and a postscript note added 11 January 2006. Further commentary on developments in 2006 in this report by Reuters, also excerpted and published with supplementary information by the International Herald Tribune. Also available in Norwegian is a brief background sketch, circa 210 KB, covering the October 2005 constitutional referendum in Iraq.)

14 October 2005: Basra, the Shi'is and the Iraq Referendum. Weaknesses in the proposed constitution might lead to the break-up of Iraq in a worst-case scenario. But the fault lines are different from what many believe, and the charter itself could be made more robust with additional checks and balances. Comment article published in Asia Times Online (Hong Kong) and Khaleej Times (Dubai).