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The Congressional races in CD 15 (most of southern Alameda county) and CD 17 (Fremont/Newark & northern Santa Clara county) have suddenly become much more interesting with the addition of bonafide Republican candidates.

In CD 15, State Senator Ellen Corbetthas issued a challenge to incumbent Eric Swalwell from the left. Swalwell ran against long-time Congressman Pete Stark in 2012 by presenting a clear challenge from the right and rallying Republican votes. He was helped in that endeavor by the lack of a Republican candidate in the race. Since then, Swalwell has turned to the Democratic center. He’s become an assistant minority whip and has voted with minority leader Pelosi in all but one or two occasions. He was recently endorsed by President Obama.

The Republicans in his district, who have long felt betrayed by Swalwell’s move leftward, have now put out one of their own to challenge him. Hugh Bussell, a Livermore resident and Vice Chair of the Alameda County GOP, pulled papers to run against Swalwell yesterday.

It’s been clear for a while that Corbett’s best hope from defeating Swalwell would be in the June elections, if a Republican challenger joined the fray. The district has roughly 40% Republican voters, so it’s likely that a serious Republican candidate will advance to the November general elections. Of the two Democrats, conventional wisdom would have Swalwell advancing. Not only is he the incumbent, but he has been a prolific fundraiser – with over $1M in contributions vs. Corbett’s $200K -; he’s also an energetic campaigner and master of social media. However, Swalwell was only able to garner about a quarter of the Democratic vote in 2012. He has not released poll numbers showing how he’s doing in the race, but the fact that he is so vehemently seeking the Democratic endorsement – he not only sought Obama’s endorsement but is also paying delegates to go to the Democratic Convention to vote to endorse him -, suggests he’s actually worried. Recent reports that he hired the daughter of a big campaign-contributor for a taxpayer-funded job, might hurt him with Democratic voters tired of corruption and fundraising scandals in their party.

Meanwhile, the race for CD 17 appears to be getting crowded – and more interesting. In addition to Mike Honda and Ro Khanna, six candidates have pulled papers to run in the race.

Republican anesthesiology professor Vanila Singh announced her run earlier this year and has already raised over $100K. A member of a Hindu nationalist organization, Singh was recruited to run to put pressure on fellow Indian-American Ro Khanna to support giving Gujarati minister Narendra Modi a visa to visit the United States. While Khanna has remained steadfast on his refusal to support Modi, Singh’s efforts at disrupting the election seem to have prompted another Indian-American candidate, Vinesh Singh Rathore, to enter the race. Rathore, a Google attorney who is registered (or was until recently) as a “declined to state”, already paid the $1740 filing.

Just yesterday, Sony recruiter Joel VanLandingham added his name to the list of candidates hoping to defeat Honda by paying the $1740 filing fee. While I haven’t yet determined what is VanLandingham’s party registration, his Facebook feed suggests he holds strong conservative views and is likely a Republican. Another Republican, Dave Chapman, who last challenged Ana Eshoo for CD 18 in 2012, has also pulled papers on the CD 17 race as has Mark Gonzales, a Republican patent agent from Newark.

Finally, Democrat Geby E. Espinosa has pulled papers to run for CD 17, in addition to Governor, Secretary of State and Insurance Commissioner in this election, and has run for numerous offices in the past.

While Rathore’s entrance into the race is not necessarily good news for Khanna – he may take some votes away from Vanila Singh, due to the name confusion between the two, but he might also take some third party votes from Khanna -, having a Republican join Vanila Singh in the race would help him tremendously. In a recent poll, Singh garnered 29% of the vote, but only when voters were told she was a Republican. That’s about the same percentage that the Republican candidate got in the June 2012 election. Multiple Republican candidates in the race would help split that portion of the vote, allowing Khanna to easily make it past the primary.

There is no certainty as to who the actual candidates will be in either race until they complete their filings. In CD 15, only Eric Swalwell has done so. In CD 17, Ro Khanna and Mike Honda seem to be the only ones to do so.

Yee’s campaign told me that Speaker John Perez* had asked Democrats to not endorse on that race, so as to not create unnecessary divisions within the party. You’d think that if Perez didn’t want divisions he’d withdraw from the race for Controller against the better qualifiedBetty Yee. Anyway, Yee wants me to vote “no endorsement”. I bet he does – he’s probably afraid the endorsement will go to Padilla.

Derek Cressman

I told the person who called me that I was planning to vote for Cressman. “Who,?” she asked. Apparently they had no idea than someone other than Padilla was running for the endorsement. Strange, as Yee actually spoke at the Alameda County Democratic Party Unity Dinner alongside Padilla and Cressman (watch the video).

I’m sorry, but if someone who is running for Secretary of State cannot keep track of the candidates in his own race, I can’t imagine he’ll be able to keep track of all the state candidates and all state measures. Yee may be a nice guy, but he needs to bring more feng shui to his life.

So Derek Cressman it is. The guy actually cares about transparency and accountability in government. Imagine that.

Apparently I misunderstood the campaign helper who called me. It wasn’t Speaker John Perez, but Party Chairman John Burton who asked candidates for statewide office to not seek the party’s endorsement. Leland Yee must be confident that he won’t get it, so he’s heeding the request. Padilla continues to ask for it. I’m still voting for Cressman.

Battle for AD 15 and CD 15 Democratic endorsement moves to the State Convention

Feb 8 Update

Congress: In CD 13, Barbara Leee was recommended for endorsement, with 100% of the vote. I was wrong about CD 15, and Eric Swalwell got the majority of the vote, though not enough to get a recommendation. The fight for the endorsement goes up to the Convention, where it will probably come to the floor, giving Ellen Corbett an advantage. Stay tuned. As predicted, in CD 17Mike Hondaeasily got the endorsement. Indeed, Ro Khanna did not even bother to show up to the meeting, probably thinking that his time was better spent campaigning.

Senate: Mary Hayashi did show up and made some vague accusations against Bob Wieckowski, but couldn’t get even one vote. Wieckowski easily got the recommendation for the endorsement for SD 10, with a handful of votes going to Roman Reed.

Assembly: I was surprised to see that a clear majority of the votes in AD 15 went to Elizabeth Echols, though not enough to break the 70% and give her the recommendation. The endorsement thus goes to the Convention. As predicted, Andy Katz got a few votes, but none went to either Sam Kang nor Pamela Price-Crawley. Both civil rights lawyers were pretty impressive, however, and I’m interested in hearing more from both of them. Tony Thurmond‘s vote count may not have impressed, but he’s a dynamic and inspiring speaker and made an impression even with my very politically jaded 12-year-old. While Echols is likely to win at the endorsement caucus at the convention, if Thurmond can pull her name out of consent – which he may very well be able to – and send this to the floor of the convention, he has a very good chance of winning. Echols may be solid, but she’s not an exciting candidate.

Also as predicted, Rob Bonta and Bill Quirk easily got the endorsements for AD 18 and AD 20 respectively. No endorsement recommendation was made for AD 25, and nobody got enough votes for this to go up to the convention. Craig Stecklergot the most votes, but Kansen Chuwasn’t far behind, with Teresa Coxtrailing both. Armando Gomezdidn’t get any votes. While Steckler called himself a progressive Democrat, almost all his campaign loot comes from police chiefs and law enforcement, which suggests he isn’t going to Sacramento to fight for civil liberties and against the prison-industrial complex. Mik

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The California Democratic Party will be conducting pre-endorsement conferences throughout the state this weekend. Members of the Democratic State Central Committee (DSCC) and other eligible Democrats will meet to listen to the different candidates that are competing for the Party’s endorsement in their respective districts and will vote on whom should get it. In races where a Democrat is endorsed by the party, other Democrats are encouraged to drop out.

Most of Alameda County, including San Leandro, falls within the Party’s region 5, and the caucus for our region will take place on Saturday, Feb. 8, starting at 2 PM at the Laborers Local 34 hall, located at 29475 Mission Blvd in Hayward. Any Democrat is welcome to attend.

While the vote count happens after the candidates have an opportunity to speak, in reality most candidates have been going around picking up vote-by-mail ballots from their supporters. Candidates who get 70% of the vote at the pre-endorsement conference are placed in the consent calendar for Party’s endorsement at the State Party Convention which will take place in early March – though their endorsement can be challenged with signatures of either 20% of DSCC members in their district or statewide. If no candidate gets 70% of the vote, but at least one gets 50%, there will be an endorsement caucus at the Convention, where they will need to garner 50% or 60% of the vote (depending on incumbency status), to get on consent. The same will happen if an endorsement is challenged.

In order to qualify for the Democratic endorsement, a candidate must be a registered Democrat and pay a fee ranging from $250 to $500.

Here are the candidates who are vying for the Democratic endorsement in Region 5

Congressional District 13

The only candidate running for the endorsement is incumbent Barbara Lee, who will easily get it.

Congressional District 15

Incumbent congressman Eric Swalwell battles State Senator Ellen Corbett for the endorsement. My bet is that if any candidate gets the endorsement tomorrow, it’ll be Corbett. I also bet that if one of them gets it, the other will have the endorsement challenged and it will go the Convention.

Congressional District 17

Here, congressman Mike Honda holds a significant advantage over challenger Ro Khanna. Khanna ran a successful slate at last year’s delegate elections and he may have a few other votes, but they will likely not be enough to prevent Honda from getting the endorsement. They may be enough for a challenge, but Honda is sure to get the endorsement at the Convention. Linguist Philip Bralich is also running for the endorsement, but I don’t believe he’ll get even one vote.

Assembly District 15

There are no incumbents in this race, but there are five candidate vying for the endorsement. Preliminary endorsements suggest that the two actual contenders are Alameda County Democratic Central Committee member Elizabeth Echols and former Richmond City CouncilmemberTony Thurmond. EBMUD Director Andy Katzmay get a few votes, but it seems unlikely that either civil rights attorneys Sam Kang or Pamela Price-Crawley will get any. The latter doesn’t even have a campaign website. My guess is that at least one of the candidates will get 50% of the vote, and the endorsement for this race will go to the Convention.

Assembly Districts 18 and 20

The only candidate running for AD 18 is incumbent Rob Bonta and for AD 20 is incumbent Bill Quirk, so both have it in the bag.

Assembly District 25

Four Democrats are vying for the open seat being left by Bob Wieckowski. San Jose Councilmember Kansen Chubattles Ohlone Community College Board Trustee Teresa Cox, Milpitas Councilmember Armando Gomezand former Fremont Police Chief Craig Steckler.I know nothing about the voters in that race, but given the crowded field it seems unlikely that anyone will get the endorsement tomorrow or even send this to the Convention.

Senate District 10

This is the race that actually makes me want to go to the conference (I already sent out my ballot). Assemblymember Bob Wieckowskiis running against former Assemblymember and convicted thief Mary Hayashi. Also in the race is stem-cell-research-activist Roman Reed. Hayashi hasn’t even bothered to set up a campaign site, and she hasn’t done any fundraising lately (though she does have a lot of money from previous races she can use), but she did apply for the Democratic endorsement, so she’s presumably running. It’s unlikely she’ll get any endorsements votes, however. Reed may get a few, but Wieckowski should easily get the endorsement and keep it on consent.

My plan, at this point, is to vote to endorse Betty Yee. Yee is currently a member of the State Board of Equalization. I have heard her speak and she’s definitely a budget wonk. She’s had a number of budget-related jobs in the past, and she strikes me as someone who is careful and by the book. Still, I don’t know her very well.

Speaker Perez, OTOH, strikes me mostly as a political animal for what should really be a non-political job.

Still, I was elected to represent all Democrats in AD 18 to the Democratic Party and I’d like to hear from you whom you’d like me to vote to endorse and why. You can e-mail me at margalacabe@gmail.com, tweet me at @SanLeandroTalk or comment on my Facebook page.