August 12, 2018

Narrow Republican wins portend trouble ahead

There was a study conducted not long ago which produced results purporting to show that in the game of basketball a team that is one or two points behind at half time is more likely to ultimately win the game. Makes sense. If the teams or evenly matched the team with players more motivated have to be the favorite.

That theory is probably true in politics as well. The team that is slightly behind is more motivated. And in the current environment, Democrats are very motivated.

Among today's voters there are those who prioritize the economy and taxes. And there are those who are appalled by Trump's noisy personality and all the pettiness Trump produces. Although a zen diagram would show some overlap, in that last group is a sizable contingent more likely to vote Democrat or not vote in upcoming elections.

So while some conservative writers are trying to instill confidence, it might be helpful to remember that basketball study and realize with a narrow win, like Troy Balderson's in Ohio, there's a motivational component for the opposition that could follow a narrow loss.