Energy Market Analysis - 02-03-2016

Demand levels are expected to increase over the next few days which offered support to the Day-Ahead gas contract yesterday. Sentiment across the rest of the curve was generally mixed with a colder weather forecast for the first half of March dictating some contracts, while a rise in the Pound against the Euro helped to weigh on others; stronger Brent was also a supportive factor on the far-curve.

Winter 2017-18 power contracts shed from their price yesterday following the DECC's proposal to bring forward the start of Capacity Market auctions by one year. However, the rest of the power curve was generally bullish and was influenced by the colder weather outlook, with temperatures expected to drop by 2 °c over the coming days.

Market Open

Market Open

A below average weather forecast continues to support contracts on the near-curve this morning, with the prompt adding 0.65ppt to its price. The UK gas system is close to balance due to the rise in gas demand, while UKCS production has also decreased, creating further upward pressure. Meanwhile, this afternoon's EIA report is expected to result in weaker Brent which could weigh on the far-curve.

Power contracts display mixed movement this morning with near-curve contracts climbing higher on the back of an increased demand forecast. Winter contracts continue to weaken on the back of yesterday's Capacity Market announcement, while weaker Brent has helped to pressure down some far-curve prices.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices increased on Tuesday but have recorded a small loss this morning to drop just below $35.6/b. The current trend remains bullish with Brent rising by nearly $4/b over the last six sessions amidst a potential freeze on production levels.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity displayed a gain - closing at 30.88ppt and £35.00/MWh, respectively.