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15 Signs You'll Get Married

Your chances of tying the knot one day depend on what state you live in, how smart you are, and whether you were an overweight child. Anneli Rufus on how to predict your marriage odds.

1. If you live in the U.S., your chances of getting married before reaching age 40 are 86 percent if you're a woman, 81 percent if you're a man.

But the probability of marrying before turning 18 is only 6 percent for women and 2 percent for men. Passing years increase the odds, which rise by age 30 to 74 percent for women and 61 percent for men.

2. If you have a high IQ, you're 29 percent more likely to get married than a person with a low IQ.

"This isn't surprising," says Seattle Pacific University psychology professor Les Parrott, the author of
Saving Your Marriage Before It Starts. "Marriage is a smart choice. Why? Because mountains of research show that married people make more money, have fewer health problems, enjoy life more, and even live longer than those who are not married. You don't have to be Einstein to figure out that marriage—when done right—has countless advantages."

"A person who has been through a divorce can often be eager to jump back into matrimony in order to 'right the wrong' or for more pragmatic reasons—e.g., finances or parenting," Parrott says. "They also tend to believe that they've learned what to do differently, avoiding mistakes that they may have made in the first marriage. Unfortunately, research shows that the divorce rate for second marriages is even higher than it is for first marriages."

4. If you live in Nebraska, you're 30 percent more likely to get married than if you live in Washington, D.C.

The capital is home to our nation's lowest marriage rate. At 24.9 percent, it's less than half the rates of 42 other states, including Idaho (57.3), Minnesota (54.1), West Virginia (55.1), and Nebraska (54.9). California has the second lowest, at 47.8 percent. Proof, perhaps, that politics are more of a turnoff than earthquakes.

5. If you're a woman who was not overweight as an adolescent, you're 20 percent more likely to get married than a woman who was overweight as an adolescent.

And if you're a man who wasn't overweight as a kid, you're 11 percent more likely to get married than men who were. "One of the factors that increase the probability of bonding is confidence," says clinical psychologist
Guy Grenier, adjunct professor of human sexuality at the University of Western Ontario. "One's degree of confidence might be compromised early in one's social trajectory if one felt ostracized or judged based on one's appearance."

6. If you're a white woman who isn't poor, you're 550 percent more likely to get married by age 35 than a poor African-American woman is.

According to a CDC report, 20 percent of poor white women and 33 percent of poor white men haven't married by age 35, compared to 10 percent of nonpoor white women and 25 percent of nonpoor white men. Some 55 percent of poor African-American women and 48 percent of poor African-American men haven't married by age 35, compared to 35 percent of nonpoor African-American women and 25 percent of nonpoor African-American men. The CDC report defines "not poor" as earning at least $22,000 a year, which amounts to being at least 200 percent above the official poverty threshold.

7. If you've never received a bone-marrow transplant, you're 14 percent more likely to marry than someone who has received a bone-marrow transplant.

As revealed in study after study, including several involving childhood cancers, a history of serious illness works against your marital odds. Though it doesn't seem fair, potential mates are scared off by the idea of decreased fertility, impaired immunity, and a shorter life span.

8. If you're a woman who lived with both of your biological or adoptive parents at age 14, you're 12 percent more likely to marry than women who didn't live with both parents at age 14.

According to the CDC, those who didn't live with both their folks at 14 are 6 percent
more likely to cohabit: that is, live with partners while unmarried. "Children of divorced parents typically have one of two attitudes toward marriage: Delay it because they’ve witnessed the pain that comes from doing it poorly, or dive into it because they feel—rightly or wrongly—that they’ve learned what not to do in a marriage relationship," says Parrott. "Unfortunately, the divorce rate does not favor their odds any more than others who marry."

9. If you're a Caucasian male who has been incarcerated, there's a 95.1 percent chance that you'll get married by age 40.

Behind bars, one becomes all too aware of what one is missing. Perhaps this is why, upon release, so many ex-cons tie the knot. But brides be warned: "Ex-inmates are more likely to assault their partners than other men," writes the author of the study that yielded this stat, "but this likelihood is reduced if they develop strong and long-lasting relationships."

Bruce Western (2004): Incarceration, marriage, and family life. Princeton University/Center for Research on Child Wellbeing, Working paper 15-19-FF

10. If you're a born-again Christian, you're 19 percent more likely to get married than an atheist is.

According to research conducted by the evangelically oriented Barna research group, born-agains have an 84 percent chance of getting married, while followers of non-Christian faiths have a 74 percent chance and atheists and agnostics have a 65 percent chance.

12. If you're a woman without a male twin, you're 15 percent more likely to get married than women with male twins.

"In mammals, including humans, female fetuses that are exposed to testosterone from adjacent male fetuses in utero can have masculinized anatomy and behavior," write the authors of the study that yielded this stat. And: "Studies in humans and other mammals show that the more feminine females are preferred as mates by males, and direct evidence from laboratory animals confirms that intrauterine position can affect female attractiveness to males."

13. If you're living with a lover for the first time, there's a 65 percent chance that you'll be married within five years.

Some 73 percent of white people's first cohabitations lead to marriage within five years, compared with 40 percent or less for Hispanic and African-American people's first cohabitations, according to this CDC study. The first cohabitations for men and women with college degrees are 34 and 27 percent more likely, respectively, to lead to marriage than the first cohabitations of those lacking high-school diplomas or GEDs.

14. If you're a conscientious man, you're at least 50 percent more likely to get married than men who aren't conscientious.

The researchers who conducted the study that yielded this figure define conscientiousness as "the degree to which a person is willing to comply with conventional rules and norms." Conscientious people, they explain, "place a high value on order" and are "self-disciplined."

15. If you're a single woman serving in the U.S. military, you're more than 200 percent more likely to get married than single civilian women are.

"One of the biggest factors in mating is propinquity: that is, being around those with whom you could potentially mate," says Grenier. "If you want to meet women, go to playgroups. If you want to meet men, join the service."

Anneli Rufus is the author of many books, including Party of One: The Loners' Manifesto
and the Nautilus Award-winning Stuck: Why We Don't (or Won't) Move On
, and the coauthor of still more, including Weird Europe and The Scavengers' Manifesto. In 2006, she won a Society of Professional Journalists award for criticism.