The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

This Tex-Mex counterpart of the familiar Brown Thrasher has been slowly but surely expanding for several decades north through South Texas, a result generally attributed to climate change already under way. Audubon's climate model forecasts a complex future for the Long-billed Thrasher’s range. A projection that 100 percent of the current summer range may be lost is indeed dire. Suitable climate in winter has potential to expand significatnly, and it is intriguing that there are multiple records of this “South Texas specialty” in recent winters as far north as Colorado. Regardless of the eventual outcome, a dynamic climate future would seem to be in store for this species.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.