Nick Rogers: Making the call on shows that will fall

Nick Rogers

Thursday

Aug 28, 2008 at 12:01 AMAug 28, 2008 at 10:06 AM

Everyone has a friend he can’t reach until it’s too late — one in a relationship built on false promises, at whom you shake your head over countless wasted hours of emotional investment. That’s right. There is no crueler mistress than network TV.

Everyone has a friend he can’t reach until it’s too late — one in a relationship built on false promises, at whom you shake your head over countless wasted hours of emotional investment.

That’s right. There is no crueler mistress than network TV. Last week, my friend Brian bemoaned the cancellations of “Cane” and “The Black Donnellys” — into which he’d sunken his teeth and time only to have them respectively terminated by CBS and NBC.

If only Brian had consulted the College of Cancellation — now offering, in its fifth year, a chance at a master’s degree in calculating which new shows will take early exits from the fall schedule.

Last year’s Writers Guild of America strike-shortened season offered stays of execution for “Reaper,” “Pushing Daisies,” “Private Practice,” “Dirty Sexy Money,” “The Big Bang Theory” and “Gossip Girl.” I correctly called that half-dozen to stick around, as I did “Cavemen,” “Life is Wild,” “Women’s Murder Club,” “Big Shots,” “Viva Laughlin” and “Cane” to all conk out.

It’s not an exact science, but, thanks to the strike, it’s veering close to chaos theory.

“Life,” “Chuck” and “Samantha Who?” all are back, against my predictions. Then there are seven crosses to bear, the shows I’d picked to survive: “Aliens in America,” “Back to You,” “Bionic Woman,” “Carpoolers,” “Journeyman,” “K-Ville” and “Moonlight” (it seems vampire shows are beyond CBS’ reach). The strike’s work stoppage last season also created a scarcity of new shows for this season. In a lean year, some may last longer.

Still, some predictors persist. And of only 17 new fictional series debuting this season
— a smaller number as a result of the strike — I say fewer than half will last. Cases in point:

* “My Own Worst Enemy” (Sept. 29, NBC) stars Christian Slater as a suburban dad and a ruthless assassin ... in the same body. When the wall in his brain separating those personalities collapses, a Jekyll & Hyde situation ensues.

The character has two personalities. The show has five problems that will scuttle it fast: the Too Quirky For Its Own Good Law; the Movie-Challenged Celebrity Fleeing to TV Formula; the
Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Failure Hypothesis, as there are shades of “Chuck,” also on
NBC Mondays; the How Long Can They Keep That Plot Going Limitation; and a crazier-than-usual inability to follow the Seven Words or Less Idea of concisely describing its plot.

* Both the Seven Words or Less Idea and the CW’s Weeknight Mercy Rule (what else will they show?) should work in favor of: