TS Bret Update — 6pm

Tropical Storm Bret has wrapped up very well this afternoon. It now has winds of 65 mph and is beginning to take off toward the north-northeast. Bret is still dealing with the dry air if you look at satellite…where you will see a suspicious eye feature coming and going. This really isn’t an eye, but rather a psuedo-eye in my opinion. Seems like a batch of dry stable air got in there and is working itself out to the north. Hurricane Hunters are in there searching for any new information. Pressure has fallen to 996 mb, and a few hot towers are popping in what may become the eyewall for a short time. Hurricane Hunters did mention an ill-formed eye structure trying to form, which we may see as the sun goes down over Bret.

I do believe that Bret will make a run a hurricane status before the day is up if recon stays long enough. I think there may be stronger winds in the western semi-circle.

Small systems are known to intensify faster, and react to environmental changes faster than their larger counterparts. Bret does seem to be expanding in size a little bit, and should continue to do so as it moves poleward. At this time, no land should be impacted by anything other than a few high waves. The forecast track continues to move westward away from Bermuda.

Meteorology Mumbo!

Eyewall Replacement Cycle -- As strong hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones intensify or hold steady, they can often replace the strongest region of winds and heaviest rains called the eyewall. This happens, usually in major hurricanes, when subsidence begins or intensifies outside of the eyewall OR a stronger band of storms forms outside of the main eyewall and feeds into the center of the system. Generally the effect is a weakening of the system at least temporarily. The hurricane also usually expands during this process. Cycles typically last 12-18 hours including the contraction process. The inner eyewall may dissipated in less than 12 hours after the outer eyewall forms.

Forecast Disclaimer

Any forecast that I make and post here or anywhere else is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinion, and should be used as such. For official forecasts and information please go to the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov or your local National Weather Service at weather.gov.