Also, the "only 10% of those who passed P ended up being an FSA" could be explained by the fact that people just lose interest in taking more exams to have a more active social life outside of work rather than "quitting" because they failed it too much.
Maybe, a good portion of the people who passed P ended up going into consulting where exams are less valued OR they ended up working in banking, tech, etc.

I'm pretty sure the SOA actually communicated this stat during the FAC that I attended. If I remember correctly, they indicated that only 8% of the people who ever sit for an actuarial exam make it all the way through to Fellowship.

You can count me as one of the people that found that to be a very interesting stat.

You could take # new fellows in a year and divide by test takers and get a fair approximation. Might need to go back in time on the test takers part to account for growth in interest in the actuarial field.

And need to adjust for those shifty Canadians who become FSA without ever taking exam 1.

I'm pretty sure the SOA actually communicated this stat during the FAC that I attended. If I remember correctly, they indicated that only 8% of the people who ever sit for an actuarial exam make it all the way through to Fellowship.

You can count me as one of the people that found that to be a very interesting stat.

Was that 8% to FSA? Or did they also count as "success" those who became FCAS?

And I would be far more interested in what time frame they looked at than in the number they came up with..

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Travel time statistic is based on conditional probability. You do know what that is, right?

Do you think everyone researching the field understands that concept? Do you not recognize the value of using both of these statistics together? Especially for someone who doesn't understand conditional probability or may be able to solve a conditional probability problem in a classroom setting but doesn't necessarily recognize it in a real-world environment because they are 20 years old?

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so the median of FSA travel time is the median of all people who wrote at least 1 exam, not median of all existing FSAs?

Isn't it conditioned on having attained the designation i.e. Pr(Travel Time < 5 | FSA)?

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so the median of FSA travel time is the median of all people who wrote at least 1 exam, not median of all existing FSAs?

It is the latter. So it is only the travel time for those who actually travelled the whole distance. If it included everybody who took at least one exam, it would NOT be conditional probability. In other words, what Kenny said:

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Isn't it conditioned on having attained the designation i.e. Pr(Travel Time < 5 | FSA)?

Including everyone who took at least one exam creates another problem. How much additional time should be allowed for each exam that the person falls short of the goal? CAS actuaries typically have to deal with this type of question all the time, I think, because of what they call "open" claims. Life insurance and pensions not so much, health insurance (as I understand it) kind of in between.

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