000
FXUS62 KCAE 070719
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
319 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak front moving through northern Midlands today. Cristobal
will lift north through the Gulf of Mexico with landfall
expected late today. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
will continue for much of the week as another weakening cold
front moves into the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moisturegradient is currently in place over the forecast area
with PWATs 1.2 inches in the north and around 1.5 inches south.
This is a significantly drier airmass compared to the past few
days which is why any rain remains well south of the forecast
area early this morning associated with some increased
isentropic lift. Later this morning and into the afternoon, this
area of weak isentropic lift will shift into the southern
forecast area leading to a chance for some shower and storm
development. An upper leveltrough will continue to deepen north
of the forecast area as well, pushing a surface cold front into
the northern Midlands, with deeper moisture returning. This
front is expected to stall north of Columbia with a chance of
storms developing later in the afternoon and into the evening
where instability will be highest, although it remains weak to
moderate. Storms remain unlikely over the Central Midlands
today with forecast soundings indicating a cappinginversion
hanging on through much of the day. High clouds will continue to
pass over the area Sunday, associated with Tropical Storm
Cristobal. High temperatures will be similar to the past few
days in the upper 80s and low 90s. With a generally SW flow
through tonight, expect overnight lows to once again be in the
low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cristobal will be lifting northward from the lower MS Valley toward
the Great Lakes Region through Tuesday night. At the same time a mid
and upper levelridge over our region Monday will move to the coast
Tuesday night.
Southerly low level winds will bring increasing moisture and
humidity to the area Monday and Tuesday. Models indicated PWAT
values 1.5 to 2.0 inches with weak to moderate instability during
peak heating. Mostly diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected.
Have continued chance pops on Monday with the highest pops across
the CSRA and southern Midlands. As per guidance, have increased pops
to high chance to likely for Tuesday. Temperatures will be
seasonable with highs from the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the
lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The remnants of Cristobal is expected to become absorbed into a
northern stream positively tilted upper trough Wednesday. The trough
will deepen over the Eastern States next weekend. A weakening cold
front approaching the area Wednesday slowly cross the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. This front may stall near the area
into Friday before a reinforcing cold front moves through next
weekend. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day with the
highest probability Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be
near normal with highs from the mid 80s to around 90 and lows in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGs late this morning, otherwise VFR
All terminals continue to see VFR conditions early this morning
with the VAD wind profiler indicating a 20 knot southwesterly
low level jet in place which has allowed for the return of
additional low level moisture. This jet has been modeled fairly
well with indications that it should continue to decrease later
this morning. While fog is not out of the question, especially
at AGS, models favor low level stratus development over the
terminals, especially at AGS/DNL where the low level moisture is
highest. Kept CIGs low MVFR after 9z this morning with stratus
lingering into the late morning. TEMPO group in place for the
rest of the terminals which may see brief MVFR CIGs after
sunrise but otherwise conditions will remain VFR. Not completely
out of the question that IFR CIGs develop at AGS/DNL but HRRR,
which looks to match up with current obs in GA, does hint at
any IFR CIGs staying more in southern GA. Slight chance of
convection developing Sunday, mainly along a front in northern
SC but should stay far enough away from the terminals.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture Monday night
through the middle of the week, with low clouds overnight and
diurnalconvection possible.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$