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The Finance Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Mr. Rajesh Agarwal, presented the Budget for financial year 2018-19 on February 16, 2018.

Budget Highlights

TheGross State Domestic Product of Uttar Pradesh for 2018-19 (at current prices) is estimated to be Rs 14,88,934 This is 8% higher than the revised estimates for 2017-18.

Total expenditure for 2018-19 is estimated to be Rs 4,28,385 crore, a 16.3% increase over the revised estimates of 2017-18. In 2017-18, there was a decrease of Rs 16,259 crore (4.2%) in the expenditure over the budget estimates.

Total receipts (excluding borrowings) for 2018-19 are estimated to be Rs 3,53,784 crore, an increase of 15.9% as compared to the revised estimates of 2017-18. In 2017-18, total receipts (excluding borrowings) fell short of the budgeted estimate by Rs 14,369 crore.

Revenue surplus for the next financial year is targeted at Rs 27,099 crore, or 1.82% of the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). Fiscal deficit is targeted at Rs 44,053 crore (2.96% of GSDP).

The allocations for energy, irrigation, and rural development are estimated to witness the highest increase in allocations over the previous year. Allocations for agriculture are expected to witness a 59% decrease.

Policy Highlights

Healthcare: A 500-bed super speciality hospital, and paramedical and nursing college will be constructed at the Dr. Ram Manohar Lohia Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow. Further, the emergency medicine department at the Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences will be expanded, and an additional 200 beds will be added.

The government will launch ‘Ek Janpad, Ek Utpaad’ scheme to promote artisans at the district-level.

The state has implemented the ‘Uttar Pradesh Khanan Neeti-2017’ for the mining The policy seeks to control illegal mining and bring transparency. The government will implement an evolved mining system in the state, with assistance from the central government, for satellite tracking of mining activities.

Solar energy: The state has set a target of generating 10,700 MW of power using solar energy by 2022. The budget allocates Rs 25 crore for setting up grid-connected rooftop solar power plants. Further, Rs 30 crore has been allocated for the Pt. Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Solar Street Light scheme.

Rs 2f50 crore has been allocated for establishing a start-up fund in the state.

Uttar Pradesh’s Economy

·Economy: The GSDP of Uttar Pradesh has grown in the range of 4% to 8% between 2012-13 and 2016-17.

·The services sector with a share of 51% in the GSDP grew by 7% in 2016-17 over the previous year. Agriculture, which contributes 25% to the GSDP grew by 6.8%. Manufacturing with a share of 24% grew by 5.1% in 2016-17.

·Per capita income: The per capita GSDP of Uttar Pradesh in 2016-17 (at current prices) was Rs 58,626. This is 12% higher than 2015-16, when the per capita GSDP was Rs 52, 320.

Figure 1: Growth in GSDP and sectors (year-on-year)

Source: Central Statistics Office; PRS.

Budget Estimates for 2018-19

The total expenditure in 2018-19 is targeted at Rs 4,28,385 crore. This is 16.3% higher than the revised estimates of 2017-18. This expenditure is proposed to be met through receipts (other than borrowings) of Rs 3,53,784 crore and borrowings of Rs 67,115 crore. Total receipts for 2018-19 (other than borrowings) are expected to be 15.9% higher than the revised estimates of 2017-18.

Capital expenditure for 2018-19 is proposed to be Rs 1,06,864 crore, which is an increase of 30.5% over the revised estimates of 2017-18. This includes expenditure which affects the assets and liabilities of the state, and leads to creation of assets (such as bridges and hospital), and repayment of loans, among others.

Uttar Pradesh is expected to spend Rs 11,564 crore on subsidies in 2018-19, which is 15% higher than the budget estimates of 2017-18. Out of the allocations for 2018-19, Rs 6,200 crore will be for energy, and Rs 2,067 crore for agriculture.

The state is estimated to spend Rs 45,495 crore on pensions, a 22% increase over 2017-18.

Revenue expenditure for 2018-19 is proposed to be Rs 3,21,520 crore, which is an increase of 12.2% over revised estimates of 2017-18. This expenditure includes payment of salaries, maintenance, etc.

In 2018-19, Uttar Pradesh is expected to spend Rs 62,980 crore on servicing its debt (i.e., Rs 30,547 crore on repaying loans, and Rs 32,434 crore on interest payments. This is 20.4% higher than the revised estimates of 2017-18.

The departments listed below account for 57% of the total budgeted expenditure of Uttar Pradesh in 2018-19. A comparison of Uttar Pradesh’s expenditure on key sectors with 18 other states can be found in the Annexure.

During 2017-18, Uttar Pradesh is expected to spend more than its budget estimates on sectors such as social welfare (6%), panchayati raj (3.7%), energy (1.9%), and public works (1.5%). It is expected to spend less than the budget estimate on agriculture (28.3%), education (8.6%), and home (7.3%).

Receipts in 2018-19

Uttar Pradesh witnessed a 15% fall in tax revenue collections during 2017-18 over the budget estimates. Collections from stamp duty were 28% lower than the budget estimates.

The total revenue receipts for 2018-19 are estimated to be Rs 3,48,619 crore, an increase of 14.3% over the revised estimates of 2017-18. Of this, Rs 1,51,522 crore (43% of the revenue receipts) will be raised by the state through its own resources, and Rs 1,97,098 crore (57% of the revenue receipts) will be devolved by the centre in the form of grants and the state’s share in taxes.

Non Tax Revenue: Uttar Pradesh has estimated to generate Rs 28,822 crore through non-tax sources in 2018-19. This is an increase of 64.7% over the revised estimates of 2017-18. This is driven by a 187% increase (Rs 8,271 crore) in receipts from the sinking fund (typically maintained to repay debt).

Table 4: Break up of state government receipts (Rs crore)

Item

2016-2017 Actuals

2017-2018 Budgeted

2017-18 Revised

% change from BE 2017-18 to RE 2017-18

2018-2019 Budgeted

% change from RE 2017-18 to BE 2018-19

State's Own Tax

85,966

1,11,502

94,959

-14.8%

1,22,700

29.2%

State's Own Non-Tax

28,944

18,437

17,502

-5.1%

28,822

64.7%

Share in Central Taxes

1,09,428

1,21,407

1,21,407

0.0%

1,33,548

10.0%

Grants-in-aid from Centre

32,537

68,052

71,161

4.6%

63,549

-10.7%

Total Revenue Receipts

2,56,875

3,19,397

3,05,029

-4.5%

3,48,619

14.3%

Borrowings

67,685

57,509

54,853

-4.6%

67,115

22.4%

Other receipts

259

284

284

0.0%

5,165

1717.5%

Total Capital Receipts

67,944

57,793

55,137

-4.6%

72,280

31.1%

Total Receipts

3,24,819

3,77,191

3,60,166

-4.5%

4,20,899

16.9%

Sources: Uttar Pradesh Budget Documents 2018-19; PRS.

Tax Revenue: Total own tax revenue of Uttar Pradesh is estimated to be Rs 1,22,700 crore in 2018-19. The composition of the state’s tax revenue is shown in Figure 2. The tax to GSDP ratio is targeted at 8.2% in 2018-19, which is higher than the revised estimate of 6.9% in 2017-18. This implies that growth in collection of taxes is expected to be higher than the growth in the economy (8%).

Figure 2: Composition of Tax Revenue in 2018-19 (BE)

State Goods and Services Tax (GST) is expected to be the largest component of Uttar Pradesh’s own tax revenue in 2018-19. It is expected to generate Rs 49,422 crore (40% of the own tax revenue).

The state is expected to generate Rs 23,000 crore through the state excise duty. This is 19% higher than revised estimates of 2017-18. Further, the state is expected to raise Rs 22,078 crore from the levy of sales tax on items such as alcohol for human consumption and petroleum products.

Tax revenue will also be generated by levying stamp duty on real estate transactions, taxes on vehicles, and land revenue.

Uttar Pradesh had targeted a fiscal deficit of 4% at the budget stage for 2016-17. It exceeded this target with the actual fiscal deficit being 4.49% for the year.

Revenue deficit: It is the excess of revenue expenditure over revenue receipts. A revenue deficit implies that the government needs to borrow in order to finance its expenses which do not create capital assets.

The budget estimates a revenue surplus of Rs 27,099 crore (or 1.82% of GSDP) in 2018-19. This implies that revenue receipts are expected to be higher than the revenue expenditure, resulting in a surplus. The estimate indicates that the state is within the target of eliminating revenue deficit, prescribed by the 14th Finance Commission.

Fiscal deficit: It is the excess of total expenditure over total receipts. This gap is filled by borrowings by the government, and leads to an increase in total liabilities. In 2018-19, fiscal deficit is estimated to be Rs 44,053 crore, which is 2.96% of the GSDP. The estimate is within the 3% limit prescribed by the 14th Finance Commission. This limit may be relaxed to a maximum of 3.5%, if states are able to contain their debt and interest payments to certain specified levels.

Outstanding Liabilities: It is the accumulation of borrowings over the years. In 2018-19, the outstanding liabilities are expected at 29.8% of the GSDP.

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