Hurricane IGNACIO (Text)

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HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2003
ALTHOUGH EARLIER TRMM IMAGERY SHOWED A SMALL EYE...THE EYE IS NO
LONGER EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS TAKEN ON A SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE THAN BEFORE...AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT ABOUT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS IGNACIO AT THIS
STRENGTH FOR 24 H...WEAKENING COULD TAKE PLACE SOONER THAN
INDICATED IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION
WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN BAJA.
IGNACIO CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO
CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO PRODUCE A SLOW MOTION OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL
REMAINS SERIOUS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 24.3N 110.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 24.6N 110.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 25.0N 110.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 111.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 112.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 29.0N 115.0W 35 KT
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