The no-confidence vote in Japan's Diet Monday night should have been high
political drama -- the vote could have toppled Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and
triggered tectonic shifts in the country's political landscape. But it turned
into a game of high-stakes chicken, enlivened with dashes of slapstick comedy.
And when the votes were counted, it was the tough-talking guy who wants to be
Japan's Prime Minister who had chickened out.

Koichi Kato, head of one of the biggest factions in Japan's dominant Liberal
Democrat Party, last week threw down the gauntlet, saying he'd side with the
opposition parties if they tabled a no-confidence motion against Mori. He had
the votes to topple the Prime Minister if enough members of his faction and its
allies backed him. There was even speculation Kato might join forces with the
opposition, creating a major new party with enough clout to finally loosen the
LDP's limpet-like grip on political power. The bold move triggered a week of
furious backroom bargaining and public spinning as the elderly men who still run
the LDP scrambled to quash the revolt.

The LDP political machine may be getting rusty, especially in urban areas. But
party heavyweights like Secretary-General Hiromu Nonaka still know how to play
hardball. Faced with a revolt that could have splintered the LDP, they
threatened to expel party lawmakers who voted against Mori.

By the time the vote came, it was a foregone conclusion. With his gang of would-
be rebels wavering, Kato got cold feet and abstained from the vote, ensuring it
would fail. Already aware the LDP machine had triumphed once again, opposition
leader Yukio Hatoyama warned the Diet: "The Japanese public will be
disappointed. This turned out to be a storm in a teacup." At one point, the
proceedings descended into farce as a conservative politician defending Mori
threw a glass of water at his opponents in the opposition benches, prompting an
uproar that only ended when he was removed from the chamber.

Kato's political future is now in doubt. Ahead of the vote, a majority of
Japanese polled supported his push to topple the gaffe-prone Mori. But after
backing down at the last minute, Kato's credibility as a reformer is in tatters.
So is his faction, after prominent members publicly broke ranks with him. He
has, as Hatoyama said, disappointed the public, big time. The influential Asahi
newspaper headlined its Tuesday morning editorial: "Mr. Kato, How Pathetic."
Says Yasunori Sone, an expert on Japanese politics at Keio University in Tokyo:
"This was a total defeat [for Kato]. He lost this chicken game because he didn't
have any guts."

Mori's political future is clearer -- he is a dead man walking. After a string
of embarrassing remarks, his popularity is bumping along below 20% (he remained
true to form ahead of the no-confidence vote, reportedly telling journalists
waiting to hear his views that what he really wanted was a "nice, cold draught
beer.")

The LDP faces a tough election in Japan's Upper House next year, so Kato isn't
the only party member who badly wants to get somebody else into the post. To
pressure Kato's allies to abandon the rebel ship ahead of the vote, the LDP's
Nonaka suggested a party leadership convention could be held early next year,
ahead of schedule. But there's little reason to expect any tectonic shifting
there either -- the LDP has shown once again that it knows how to look after its
own.