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Market review for 29.08 – 2.09, 2011 (36/2011)

After the
diverse trading dynamics, by the end of the previous week the greenback
reinstated its safe-haven status.

The dollar is finishing the current month with the maximal growth
since May: in August, the dollar rose 1.2% against a basket of currencies and
returned to the status of “safe-haven” currency. On Monday the greenback lost
its positions against high-yielding currencies (Euro, Pound, Australian and New
Zealand dollars), but strengthened against other currencies with the same
“safe-haven” status (the Yen and the Franc). EUR/USD traded from its lows at
$1.4463 up to its highs at $1.4550. The pair stepped back from the maximums
after statistics that showed the slowdown in inflation in some parts of
Germany.

The GBP/USD rose from $ 1.6341 and showed its session highs at $
1.6412. Then, the pair was trading near the $1.6400 zone.

In the meantime the Swiss franc fell against the major currencies
on the background of the strengthening of
the major fund indices of the world markets. During the Asian session
the Franc was trading for less than 0.8100. And the Australian dollar rose
against the major currencies on the backdrop of the increasing demand for
high-yielding currencies as well as in connection with the expectations of the data
on building permits (due on Tuesday).

On Tuesday the EUR/USD pair showed its session highs at $1.4532,
but couldn't keep above this level and sharply fell to $1.4383. The euro
decreased against the other major currencies as well on the background of reduced
expectations of the further interest rates increase by the ECB.

The overall release of the European news was rather negative.
Italian Retail sales dropped considerably, the Euro-zone Business climate,
economic and industrial confidence indicators decreased below expectations.

Tuesday for the US dollar was a very ”good” day. In the view of
European news the greenback seemed to many investors as the only alternative
for preservation of their assets.

The Frank and the Yen, which also have safe-haven currency status,
in the conditions of world instability, are under pressure now, since the
governments of these countries continue to hold in control an increase in the national
currencies after their significant rise in price.

After testing the $1.6418 level during that day, the GBP/USD pair fell
to its lows of $1.6277 area. The pressure on the pound was a result of the
published Great Britain Consumer confidence survey, which dropped below the
previous month’s level and its expectations as well.

During the Asian session on Wednesday the Euro remained under
pressure before the publication of the report on unemployment in the EC. The EUR/USD
pair showed session highs at $1.4468, but returned at the $1.4435 zone. The
pressure on the Euro increased after the published statistics, which recorded
growth of unemployment in the EC in July to a level of 10.0% compared to the
previous 9.9%. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped to its minimums of $1.4416
during the European trading session. Concerns over slowing down of the economic
growth in the Euro zone supported the demand for the safe assets, like theUS
dollar.

Concerns over the spreading of the debt crisis in the EC and decreased demand for
high-yield assets pressured the euro, which reached a two-week low against the
US dollar at the $1.4262 area today. We should
note, that the
pressure on the Euro was increased even more after the message of the Greek Parliament Budget
Committee saying that the debt situation in Greece was out of control
regardless of the planned measures.
Published weak statistics had additional negative influence on the euro:
German GDP recorded a small growth only by 0.1% in comparison with +1.3% in the
previous period and the EC PMI index report fell below the forecast of 49.7 and
was 49.0.

The United States dollar increased against a
basket of major currencies after the Institute for supply management (ISM
manufacturing) provided data on the growing manufacturing activity index in
August (factual level of 50.6 exceeded its predicted rate of 48.0). By the end
of the trading week the demand for the save-haven assets increased and the US
dollar strengthened.