BritainIf the reports are correct, Theresa May has two weeks to convince a majority of British MPs to vote for her deal in the Meaningful Vote on Brexit on the 10th of December.

It looks highly unlikely right now that she will be able to win that vote as there are appropriately 70 Conservative MPs who have said they will vote against it, the 10 DUP MPs are also opposed to it and it seems improbable that there will be rebel Labour MPs to make up for this.

What I am interested in is where she will try and pick up votes from. It will be almost impossible to convince the DUP MPs to vote for it with the current plan. She will therefore probably try and squeeze the less fervent Brexiteer and Remainer MPs who will worry about losing support of their local committees and the Conservative Party.

I think a better approach would be to go for the softest possible Brexit that has a Single Market and Customs Union element. It could get the DUP back onside as it may be possible to avoid a backstop as well as pulling in support from a number of Labour MPs and potentially even the wider Labour Party.

As I've said before, making Brexit predictions is a mug's game so I'll continue to sit back and watch without pretending I have any more of an idea than the vast majority of the wider British and Irish public...

FranceThe fuel tax increase riots are looking quite dangerous for Emmanuel Macron. Reports suggest that 100,000 people protested over the weekend and unfortunately 2 people were killed and 100 injured.

With so much focus on the Brexit, many are not giving these protests the attention they could deserve. If they continue to escalate, the golden boy of European centre-right politics could be in severe trouble, just halfway through his first term...

Russia/UkraineA dangerous escalation in the continuing Crimea crisis this weekend as the Russian Navy seized three ships off Crimea in the Straits of Kerch (which connects the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea).

It remains to be seen whether this is a once off or it will lead further retaliatory actions by Ukraine against Russia.