Labor leak: is Shorten in the firing line?

There have been some ineffectual federal opposition leaders in our recent political history, with the Liberals’ Alexander Downer and Brendan Nelson being two that most readily spring to mind.

Even John Howard, before going on to become Australia’s second-longest serving prime minister, had two attempts at being opposition leader before getting it right. On the other side of the political fence, the affable but prolix Kim Beazley also had two stints as opposition leader, but ultimately was not up to one of the toughest jobs in Australian politics.

Depending on who you believe, the Opposition Leader’s colleagues may also be fast coming to the conclusion that they’re on a loser with Shorten.

Yesterday’s leak to the tabloid media of a confidential shadow cabinet discussion paper on policy options for reducing carbon emissions was particularly damaging for Shorten. Partly because it gave Tony Abbott the opportunity to dust off his great big tax scare campaign, but also because the leak represents the first crack in the united front that Labor has judiciously presented to voters since the conclusion of the Rudd-Gillard wars.

When asked whether the leak was due to Labor infighting, Combet replied: “Well I hope that people have learnt the lessons of the Rudd-Gillard period and they’re not about to repeat it.”

Combet has become a regular feature on our screens in past weeks. First he was sitting with Shorten’s legal team when the Labor Leader attended the royal commission, and then yesterday he was doing media interviews in an attempt to hose down any public concerns about a carbon tax by explaining the difference between it and an emissions trading scheme.

It’s telling that Shorten, who is from Labor’s right, felt it necessary to wheel out the former minister to do so, when he has a perfectly serviceable shadow minister for climate change, Mark Butler, who incidentally also happens to be the new ALP President and a member of Labor’s left.

In another example of the dark synchronicity that currently seems to plague the Opposition Leader, the discussion paper leak sucked the oxygen away from Labor’s attempts to ignite its own great big tax campaign over the GST.

Just as PM Abbott faced a number of pivotal tests of his leadership earlier this year, Shorten too has to survive a number of crunch points. One was his appearance last week at the union royal commission, another is to navigate next week’s national conference, and a third is to manage the aftermath of both events.

It may be enough for the Labor Leader to put in a pedestrian but competent showing. But if there is anything the leak of the climate policy paper suggests, it’s that some of Shorten’s colleagues are not yet prepared to give up the next election. If Labor’s opinion poll rating starts to dip lower than the Coalition’s (on a two-party preferred basis), their election-saving efforts will be considerable – and may need to include tapping Shorten on the shoulder to orchestrate an orderly transition to a new Labor leader.