The Pakistan-Iran-Afghanistan Intelligence War: Analysis

Reports from Afghanistan indicate a struggle between nations, complete with double agents, international spies and arms smugglers. And U.S. troops and Afghan government officials are in the cross hairs.

Sometimes simple news reports from Afghanistan provide a window to some very deep, troubling trends. Such is the case with an article this weekend from ToloNews, Afghanistan's version of CNN. "The [Afghan] National Directorate of Security on Saturday announced that an army officer has been arrested on charges of cooperating with Pakistan's intelligence agency and terrorist networks" it reads. The Afghan domestic security bureau told reporters that the officer was turning over classified information so insurgents could raid government offices in the Afghan capital, Kabul. Worse, the officer was in charge of maintaining several large checkpoints around Kabul, the best line of defense against suicide strikes. (Don't bother looking for an official release from the Afghan government on the arrest. The National Directorate of Security's website is defunct, and a Facebook "tribute page" is silent on the issue.)

The Tolo report ends with a cryptic mention of Iranian weapons that have turned up in Afghanistan. It's not clear if the long- range rockets and bombs the article mentions were seized in the same counterintel operation that snared the turncoat army officer. If that was the case, the arrest would suggest a link between Pakistan, Iran and insurgents in Afghanistan. And even if the incidents are separate, they still suggests a dynamic intelligence battlefield.

What does this incident tell us about the agendas of the players duking it out in the mountains and cities of Afghanistan?

1) Pakistan

The world may have been shocked by Osama bin Laden's safe harbor in Pakistan, but Afghans were not–elements in the Pakistani government are very likely ardently supporting the Taliban. (Afghan officials claim Taliban leader Mullah Omar is also being sheltered in Pakistan.) After all, the Taliban was established and supported by Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, to run neighboring Afghanistan, and this new plot suggests that strong ties remain.

Meanwhile, cooperation between Pakistan and the U.S. has lagged, and increasingly American officials describe the government in Pakistan as ineffectual at best and complicit at worst. Things have grown even chillier since the bin Laden raid. U.S. diplomats have restrictions on their movements in Pakistan, and the U.S. ambassador to Pakistan was recently temporarily detained at the Islamabad airport. Congress is moving to decrease aid to Pakistan and add restrictions to doling out the money–seemingly sensible moves, but ones that may diminish U.S. influence.

One thing to remember is that Pakistan is not a monolithic government but an umbrella of widely disparate interests. Some within the government will support the Taliban, while others will ally with the U.S. to destroy it. The Pakistani leadership is struggling to keep the increasingly chaotic and unstable nation together, fighting a tide of ethnic and political violence.

2) Iran

Accusations that Iran has been supplying weapons that kill U.S. troops, including rockets and roadside bombs called explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) that fire hot slugs through vehicle armor, are not new–but most these shipments have gone to Iraq, not Afghanistan. In 2009, then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates warned of Iranian interference in Afghanistan, pointing to an increased flow of weapons including EFP components.

This followed a failed outreach by the United States and NATO. In March 2009, President Barack Obama reached out to Iran through a televised address in which he offered a "new beginning" for U.S.–Iran ties. The complaints of cross-border weapon smuggling in Kabul and Washington D.C.. quieted. And then, when the outreach was rebuffed, the accusations started again.

It's not hard to recognize Iran's motive: It sees the chance to gain the upper hand in building long-lasting Afghan influence, especially by filling power vacuums created by the war and the U.S.'s talk of leaving. Radio broadcasts from Iran are popular. Iranian-funded road and building projects are under way, including a rail link between the two nations. This week, Iran's ambassador to Afghanistan announced Iran's annual exports to the country has reached $1.3 billion, up from $300 million just last year. And why so many weapons? Iran is hoping that by increasing the Allied body count, it can reinforce the idea that insurgent warfare, not political and economic malaise at home, drove the United States from Afghanistan.

3) Afghanistan

For their part, the Afghans are not as eager as the U.S. to throw hard accusations at Iran. An Afghan government spokesman says the country "still lacks concrete evidence that could prove Iranian government engagement with supply of arms to insurgents." Afghan officials can say smuggling groups are moving weapons without Iranian government involvement, and preserve diplomatic and economic options. After all, Iran is a regional power with lots of money, the ability to attack neighbors with terrorist proxies, and conventional and, soon, perhaps, nuclear weapons. The United States, on the other hand, speaks of a timetable to leave. Whom would you support?

In terms of the case against the crooked army officer, the Afghan government is looking at its own survival. The capital of Kabul is supposed to be safe, but has witnessed some spectacular attacks (and the National Directorate of Security says it disrupted an attack this weekend). A suicide bomber on a motorcycle targeted the Directorate itself in January, killing two and wounding more than 30. Suicide bombers know when to strike and can evade security to launch attacks. The insurgents clearly have moles inside the Afghan government–and the accusation of an army officer in charge of checkpoints reveals a dangerous "inside man" scenario that must be all too common. Attacks like these can destabilize the Afghan government–a spate of killings this year in Kandahar have basically eliminated the regional political leadership.