Hurricane EPSILON (Text)

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HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAD BEEN RAGGED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT EARLIER...HAS BECOME COLDER AND MORE
SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z HAD BEEN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THEN HAVE BOUNCED BACK UP TO T4.5. WITH NO
REAL OBSERVATIONS EXCEPT FOR QUIKSCAT PASSES ONCE OR TWICE A
DAY...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHETHER EPSILON'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN
FOLLOWING THESE DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DVORAK VALUES.
CONSEQUENTLY...I'D LIKE TO SEE EPSILON MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE FOR A WHILE LONGER BEFORE CHANGING THE
INTENSITY AGAIN. THE ADVISORY VALUE WILL REMAIN 65 KT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
EPSILON CONTINUES TO MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST...105/9. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CYCLONE'S
STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF EPSILON AND A BLOCKING HIGH
IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE COMPLEXITY
OF THE PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A SHARP TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE GFDL HOLDS EPSILON AS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS...WHILE
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A FAIRLY RAPID DECAY.
SSTS UNDER EPSILON ARE ALREADY ABOUT AS COLD AS THEY ARE GOING TO
GET. THE SHEAR IS ALSO NOT GOING TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
EPSILON BEGINS ITS TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN 24 HOURS OR
SO. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER
TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE EARLY AND SHIPS GUIDANCE LATE. THE MOST
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON
WAS STILL QUITE DISTINCT FROM THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM
EPSILON NORTHWARD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WITH THE SOUTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION CONTINUING IT SEEMS THAT AN IMMINENT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS...ALAS...A LOST CAUSE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 33.8N 36.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 35.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 32.7N 34.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 31.3N 34.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 29.8N 36.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 26.5N 39.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/0600Z 20.0N 47.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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