The early vote: signs of GOP passion

Just over a week before Election Day, signs of widespread Republican enthusiasm are apparent in the early-voter data, including in some places with highly competitive statewide races. Yet at the same time, for Democrats there are promising data in numerous states suggesting that the idea of a devastating turnout gap may be overblown.

POLITICO surveyed early voting through Saturday in 20 states, and in 14 of the 15 that have voter registration by party, the GOP's early turnout percentage is running ahead of the party's share of statewide voter registration — whether measured against 2006 or 2008, when President Barack Obama's campaign led to a surge in Democratic voter registration. As a result, Republicans say they're turning the tables on the Democratic dominance of early voting that paved the way for Obama's victory in 2008 — and that independents' lean toward the GOP this year will do the rest.

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In Florida, in addition to having a lead in absentee ballots, "incredibly, we are also leading early voting so far, the first time that has ever happened," the state GOP's Daniel Conston said. "We don't expect to win early voting, but any lead at all is shocking at this point and a testament to the incredible enthusiasm amongst Republicans."

At the same time, the early-voting numbers provide evidence that the Democratic ground-level organization in some states is matching or exceeding Republicans' enthusiasm.

Democrats point to states like Iowa, Ohio and West Virginia, where they have turned out more of their partisans than Republicans so far. And they say they're focused on getting out voters who might not otherwise come out in an off-year election.

"We are expanding the electorate in this midterm election, and Republicans are not," the Ohio Democratic Coordinated Campaign's Lauren Groh-Wargo said.

Broad generalizations about who’s winning in early voting — and what it means for Nov. 2 — are imperfect, in part because of the wide variance among state systems and the limited availability of detailed data.

In some closely watched states, early voting isn’t much of a factor: Illinois and Pennsylvania, for example, where 90 percent of the vote is likely to be cast on Election Day. In other states, early voting is rampant but information is scarce. In California, where more than a million votes are already banked, and Washington state, where nearly all voting is done by mail, officials haven’t released turnout by party. Often the major parties and some outside groups have the most thorough and up-to-date information, since they work hard to identify voters and track early votes in some of these states.

California provides an illustrative example of the complexities of interpreting early returns. According to data gathered by the Atlas Project, a private Democratic consulting firm, 43 percent of California early voters have been Democrats, while 39 percent have been Republicans. Considering the Democrats' current 44-31 registration advantage in the state, the GOP appears to be outpacing its share of the electorate, while Democrats appear to be staying home. Then again, in the 2006 early vote — a great year for Democratic candidates — each party drew 41 percent, a performance that was below Democratic registration and well above the Republican share.