Potentially Messy Winter Storm Tues & Wed

In yesterday's Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, I mentioned the possible storm for Tues-Wed might get pushed too far to the south by Canadian high pressure to produce much snow here. On the other hand, I mentioned if the Canadian high was weaker and/or displaced further north, the storm would track closer to us, producing more substantial precipitation. This latter scenario now seems more likely.

As it turns out, the storm may track so close to us that we have to worry about it bringing in enough warm air to change the snow to ice and even rain, especially from the District south and east.

The way it looks to me is that we'll see a period of accumulating snow on Tuesday. Late afternoon Tuesday or Tuesday night, the snow may mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain or even plain rain -- probably preventing this storm from being a heavy snow maker (4"+) in the immediate metro area.

I'd caution this storm is still several days away, and slight changes in the storm's track and strength may still cause significant changes to this forecast.

Thanks for the update CWG - I think you guys are being a bit bearish on 50% for an inch or less. However, as you stated the track and intensity are key as always, but I would say based on the latest model runs that our chances are as followes:

I'm completely with you on the statement "one run is not a trend" but there is a trend supporting a stronger low and a more northerly track, which to me signifies mixing issues. Put a gun to my head right now and I'd guess 2-3" then icing...but still a ton of time for changes.

There has been a northerly trend with the gfs all year long so it really not a big surprise! I am surprised that it has gone from an overrunning event to a pretty good storm! Bottom line IMO, The stronger this thing gets the more mixing we will have. If Euro follows gfs, then that 2-4 will be on lower end.

Interpreting the graph literally, the most likely scenario would be in the middle of the graph--between a dusting to 1" and 1-3" -- so around an inch or so. I may have been a little conservative with these probabilities. As I mentioned in my previous comment, if I had to guess right now, I'd say 2 or 3 inches... But it's really early to be making a call.

@snowlover

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Thanks for posting that info. It's nice to see the SREF ensembles bullish. I erred on the side of being conservative with the latest OP GFS taking the 850 low to our northwest and the model's tendency to trend warmer as we get closer to the event -- not to mention it's almost always prudent to err on the conservative side forecasting snow here... Having said that, I still think this storm gives the entire area its first accumulating snow event -- and possibly significant icing.

I'm still expecting Feb temps 2 b above average, so this next week will probably be our best chance at snow this season. My early guesscast, 4 the immediate DC area, is for 1-3" of snow followed by freezing rain & rain. This has the makings of a typical NOVA winter storm, a little snow followed by ice & or rain.
1" or less 20%, 1-3" 60%, 3-5" 10%, 5+ 10%, of course all guesses subject to change as cond. warrant.

and yet again the models are beginning to shaft the DC area AGAIN! per the GFS and Euro, 1-3inches if that then slop or rain. I would this would be considered a trend north but maybe i'm wrong. Over all, right now its not "snowstorm" for us! These shifts in the models three days prior to the event are just another excample of what its been all winter. I was thinking that maybe this event would kick that trend but it does not look like thats going to happen.

Guys....I am telling you...RAIN, RAIN, RAIN! Expect slush in the city with a cold rain for the majority. North and West 1-2" followed by freezing rain and sleet. Bullseye will be along the Mason-Dixon Line.

NWDCJesse and snowlover: while pops are at 80 to 90%, don't let that fool you! Right now its 2-4 inches if were lucky. Ice and rain are now a bigger threat. Storm will probably be stronger and likely track to far north for major snow here.

all you can do is laugh at these models. two days ago they were showing snow from richmond to dc and now the snow is going to be from albany to burlington. a 400 mile shift north. wow. while the 2007 valentines day storm was much bigger than this will be, the model shifts north over the past few days have been very similar.

How is this funny anymore? I'm reaching for a bottle of scotch to drown these no-snow-blues! lol Seriously though, why are the models so far off these days? Aren't they based on historical data? If so, why is the historical data missing its mark? Ugh! You guys are killing me! LOL

The Oklahoma watches all the way to West Va will stick! They are in for a decent snow then ice and maybe major ice. The weather on the other side of the mountains is completly different from ours. This whole situation makes me laugh that our area, over and over and over again gets left out. Still time to change though!

LOL ------ I have told you all along that this will be a primarily RAIN event. There will come a day where we will get a Blizzard but it is just not in the cards for us right now. Even a small storm is not in the cards. Expect a good, cold, wet noodle rainstorm with a tease of snow at the very end as cold air finally filters in.

Folks. Let's look at the trend so far. The models are doing what they generally do... get better the closer to the event. In this case the trend - or focus - of the models has slowly been fine tuning the forecast. Unfortunately the trend is not our friend, although the latest run of the models seems to have halted the northward march of the storm system headed our way. Will this hold? Time will tell. As of RIGHT NOW, the models are painting a picture of some snow with a change over to a mixed bag and maybe even rain, then a change back to perhaps a few flurries before it is all over. As usual, where you live will have an effect on the timing of the change over. The farther north and west, blah, blah,blah...
There is still time for some unexpected variable to come into play, but don't count on it. We are in an area where this type of scenario is not unusual. But take heart. Look at how much the forecast has changed in the last 48 hours!

P.S. This is a relatively fast moving system and thus will not have a lot of time to deposit great amounts of snow on us unless the storm tracks well to our south, like 150 miles further south than currently projected. Even if it was all snow, the speed would keep accumulations down to less than 8 inches - and that is generous.

actually if we were in a good storm track and it was a pure snow event we could have seen 12+. Models just a couple days ago were putting out 10 to as much as 13 inches. Right now we have missed out on a major snowfall. I do want to say that I think the local mets may be downplaying the rain threat! and I really do think we may not see warning criteria in parts of our area :(

Would be a terrible disappointment if this all melted into one of those terrible 35-degree soakers. But, as I posted earlier, it hits when I have a Tuesday night swing dance and two books* to lug into Arlington Central Library by Wednesday. I'd much rather have the big snow when I don't have to mess with public transit at the height of the storm. Model runs DO seem to be advecting in too darned much warm air at this time...something I was hinting at a few days ago.

*I can take one of the books in tomorrow before the event but probably not both of them. Unless Tuesday's temperature jumps over 32, we likely have frozen precipitation that day.

Storms that come out the Tenn. Valley area generally aren't big snow producers 4 this area. Usually they produce some snow, but generally end up as rain events. This is looking like the usual snow 2 rain storm from this area. Big snows in this area r the 1's that come out of the gulf & head up 95, then off the NC coast. I'm still sticking with 1-3" b4 the change over, I'm basing this on 55 yrs of living in the NOVA area. 90 % of the time, snow totals 4casted 4 this region r 2high. Enjoy the period of snow, but it still looks like a change over b4 it ends. Hopefully this may b a storm that fools us, but the odds aren't good. Remember, models aren't very reliable until they're 36 hrs or less. Mon. looks like a good day 2 go striper fishing at the 301 Bridge. I'll give a fishing report tomorrow afternoon.

After hearing the latest 11pm news and forecast, the chance of snow now has decreased to maybe an inch with a switchover to rain because of warmer air moving in. By tomorrow the forecast will most likely change to a mix of snow and rain changing to all rain. Once again snow loses out and the DC area will remain the center of ever continuing snow drought.

This is a weird event. The new GGEM and UKMET both have switched back to a 2 storm solution after previously showing 1. Neither model is terribly reliable, but nonetheless, this shows there is still room for some positive change with this system.

I think there are 2 givens with this system:

1. Almost everyone sees some snow at the start.

2. Almost everyone changes over to a mix, then to rain by the end.

Between 1 and 2 though, is still an open question, and could well determine whether this is a significant winter setup, with some light rain at the end, or some light snow at the front followed by a washout.

Complex weather system to say the least. Even RAINMAN GREG now says we will see some snow from several waves of low pressure. The key will be the secondary low development off the coast. This seems to develop off the Delmarva and closer in to the coast bringing the warm air in. We will see.