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7.10.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report

We are a world awash in lies. It is so prevalent that 90% of our citizens have absolutely no idea of what’s real and what is not. How can I possibly say such a thing? Because I have spent the last 25 years of my life digging below the main stream news, and discovering the truth about things. Rarely if ever do they match up.

Hillary is the Democrats big hope for the White House. She, just like her psychopathic husband Bill have looked into the cameras and into your eyes and said “I did not have, receive or send classified Email from my private server.” But Jim Comey, head of the FBI said just the opposite. He said she had 113 Classified Emails on her server, several of them of the utmost security level of top secret, and she was probably hacked. She lied. She’s a serial liar.

For years on end, many well respected investors have sent physical proof to the regulators of the COMEX exchange detailing manipulation of the metals markets. The regulators spent a few years looking into it and at the end said they could find no evidence of manipulation. Yet in an amazing twist, several major institutions have been fined over 30 BILLION dollars for criminal wrong doing as pertaining to LIBOR rates, Currency exchange, MBS’s, money laundering, and a host of other illegal activities.

I endure CNBC almost daily. I’d rather have dental work done. Day after day, week after week, they regurgitate numbers as fact which are in reality fake. Made up. Twisted. Perverted. Just this Friday, we got the non farm payroll report. According to the talking heads, we gained 287,000 jobs in June and it sparked a rally that sent the market to just a couple points of an ALL TIME HIGH. But did we really create 287K jobs, after only gaining 11,000 in May? Of course not.

The BLS’s “Birth/Death” model added 92K jobs to the pot....jobs that don’t exist. 44K more of them were Verizon workers returning from being on strike. Then we find that 90% of the job gains in the remaining 160K jobs went to people 55 years old or over. Think “Welcome to Wal-Mart” for an aging population that can’t afford to live. Yet this jobs report was heralded as fantastic, a “game changer” and supposedly the reason for a 250 point DOW romp, and an S&Pwithin spitting distance of a new all time high.

Lies. We simply live in a world of them. Right now you and a few hundred million others think that a man named Philando Castile was sitting as the passenger in a car that was stopped for a broken tail light, and then shot by a police officer for “no apparent reason”. Because the man was black, and the woman in the car shared a self made video to the world, the entire black population seems to think that the cops just decided to kill an innocent black guy.

It’s a lie. Like most things media.

First off, you have to understand the video was uploaded in “mirror” view. In other words it looks like Castile was the passenger, but that’s not true...he was the driver. Next up, she says that they were stopped for a broken tail light. That too is a lie. The reason the car was stopped is because 4 days earlier two armed men robbed a convenience store...

According to a press release from the St. Anthony Police Department, which contracts for police service in Lauderdale, the two robbed the Super USA store in the 2400 block of Larpenteur Avenue around 7:30 p.m., taking cash from the register and cartons of Newport cigarettes.

In the description of the robbery and in CC camera film from the robbery Employees described one suspect to police as a black man with longer than shoulder-length dreadlocks, who wore blue jeans, a green plaid long-sleeved shirt, dark-color shoes with white highlights, glasses and a baseball cap printed with marijuana leaves, the release says. He may have had a mustache.

The reason the car was stopped is because the police had put out a BOLO ( be on the lookout) for anyone matching that description, and the officer notice Castile matched EXACTLY the description of the armed robber.

Now think about this for a minute. The cops saw a video of a guy pointing a gun at a clerks head, and stealing money. They put out a BOLO to try and catch them. Then, They see a guy driving a car that matches this guy to a Tee. When the officer approaches the window, he see’s what can only be described as a gun on the guys lap, partially covered by a towel. He screams at the man to NOT MOVE HIS HAND, but Castile does reach near it. The cop shoots him.

The woman in the car starts filming, screaming that he was licensed to carry a gun and was only reaching for his drivers license. However local area police say they never had a concealed weapons permit issued to Castile.

So as you can see...the story being pushed from the media is that Cops just randomly stop black people, and then indiscriminantly shoot them at will. Yet the FACT is that a guy who looks just like a robbery suspect, an ARMED robbery suspect, is stopped for questioning and he’s got a weapon on his lap, that looks VERY similar to the weapon used in the robbery, and this cop...quite anxious and nervous tells him not to move and yet he makes hand movement towards the gun. The cop fires in what he believes will be a shootout if he doesn’t.

Not quite the story you’re being told on TV is it? Nope. Not even close. And because of jackass reporting and viral media, the WRONG story goes out...only to be picked up by tens of thousands of angry black people that believe more than ever that the cops are out to just “mow us down like animals”. So what happens next? The Very thing I worried about... retaliation.

The attack on the Dallas police which left 11 wounded and 5 dead, was in DIRECT response to BS reporting. The MEDIA is responsible for stirring up the pot the way they have. Are there racist cops out there? Sure there are. But are the instances of cops shooting black males some form of jihad against black men? Of course not. Yet that’s what millions of inner city and poorer class blacks believe. And they’re angry and they’ve just shown the world that they’re willing to retaliate.

I really pray for calm heads to prevail, I really do. Yet there’s no doubt that race relations in this country are at a low I have never seen, not in my almost 60 years. If angry uneducated black men begin to assassinate police officers around the country, the effects will be widespread and horrible. Not just for the families of the slain officers, but for the black community itself. Police will simply stop entering certain areas. All manner of law will break down across racial lines. And any black men whom the police have just a suspicion of being criminal, will indeed be shot...lest the officer feels he’d be shot first.

The first casualty of any war is truth. It is killed well before the first shots ring out. In the race problems facing America today, the biggest reason behind it is because the truth has been hidden away. No one is allowed to talk about the real reasons behind our racial tensions because if you get labeled a “racist” your career is over. You will lose your job. Hell you might get locked up for inciting hate.

What happened in Dallas was a declaration of war. An Ambush is a military operation and those police were ambushed. It was premeditated and carried out. I can only pray that the truth finally gets its chance at a soap box and diffuse this war quickly. Because this war has no winner.

The Market....

For almost two years the market has traded in a volatile sideways pattern, trapped between the all time closing high of 2130 way back in May of 2015, and a low of about 1820 which was tapped several times.

After the Brexit panic sell off two weeks ago where we lost 850 DOW points in two sessions, they got all their collective wagons together and put on an almost unbelievable run up, getting all those points back and then some. On Friday, we ended the day with the S&P just a couple points from a new all time high.

The so called reason for such a massive move was the Friday jobs report. Yet it was nothing short of horrible and those with an ounce of brains know it. However the algo-bots that run the program trades don’t care...they feed off headlines. When they see a headline saying “jobs came roaring back” they click off program trades...big ones.

Yet those merely mortal of us wonder... just how crazy can this get? As Stockman said When the S&P 500 first hit 2130 back in May 2015, reported LTM earnings were $99.25 per share, and that was already down 6.4% from the cyclical high of $106 per share in September 2014. Thus, stocks were being valued at a nosebleed 21.5X in the face of falling earnings.

During the four quarters since then, reported LTM earnings have slumped by a further 12.3% to $87 per share. So that brings the “cap rate” to 24.5X earnings that have shrunk by 18% over the last six quarters.

Is that a reason for stocks to go higher? Of course not, but stocks don’t go higher because of legit price discovery now. When Central banks can print money out of thin air and buy 10 million shares of AAPL at it’s all time high, is that true price discovery? Of course not. It’s unicorns and rainbows. It’s unnatural at its highest level. Yet it is...what it is.

We are going to experience a crash. I don’t know when. But I think I know that when it hits, it’s going to be vicious. But until then, we’re back to the game of musical chairs. As long as the music keeps playing ( the market going up) we continue to go around and around, hoping we’re close to the safety of that one safe seat when it stops.

So are we going to see new highs? It sure looks like it. If we do, then my prediction from last June is wrong. I said then that the May highs were the ultimate highs and we wouldn’t break them for “many years”. Well it looks like we probably will, and in just over 1 year.

If we do bust over 2130 on a closing basis, can we really just buy into it and hope for more? You already know it doesn’t belong as high as it is...so buying more even higher seems silly. Yet we’ve never been in this situation before, where Central banks tell you point blank that they’re buying stocks and supporting the markets. If the CB’s are there....what’s to worry?

We’re in a really bizarre time folks. If we break out, I wouldn’t be terribly fast to jump on that train, the possibility of a head fake is high. We could break out, only to find that it was a short term event and the “last hurrah”, and we roll right back over. Be careful out there!

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So when these companies start releasing their earnings in bulk next week, just what are we actually hearing them tell us? Sometimes it isn’t as easy as just saying “oh that’s their earnings based on sales versus expenses”. Thus I think a bit of history lesson needs to be taught here….

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Financial Intelligence Report - 11.8.2015

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On Friday we got the non farm payroll report. Estimates were for a gain of 183,000 jobs. But when the number hit we didn’t print 183K jobs, we printed 271,000 blowing away even the most bullish estimates. Inside the report it was all rainbows and unicorns. We saw the unemployment rate fall to 5%, and we see wages rose an astounding 2.5%. A better report you simply couldn’t make up!! In fact that’s true, because they made this one up, and it was the best they could do.

5.8.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report

Who is Kidding Who?

On Friday we got the non farm payroll report. On the first Friday of every month we get a reading concerning the prior months job hiring’s. They discuss the breakdown of where the jobs came from, the sectors, the pay changes, etc. It really is a deep report.

Well, this month the spinner head economists were all on board for the economy to have created 205 – 220,000 jobs. Well, at 8:30 am, we got the results and it was a “swing and a miss”. According to OFFICIAL Government bean counters, we got 160,000 jobs. So right off the bat, the “experts” missed the estimates by about 24%. In any other profession other than weather forecasting, they’d be fired.

2.9.2015 Financial Intelligence Report

Jobs Galore?

On Friday we got the non farm payroll report, and boy…if the powers that be ever wanted to paint something to look perfect, this was their Rembrandt moment. Not only did the headline number beat the estimates of a gain of 235K by coming in at 257K; they went back and did some of the most aggressive “revisions” to prior reports that I’ve ever seen.

Let me paint the picture for you. According to our Government bean counters the last few reports have shown the most job gains in 17 years. They say that wage growth was the best since 2008, as they told us wages grew by 0.5%. The BLS did revisions to the entire year of 2014, and remember the “polar vortex” last January? They said at the time we only got 144K jobs. Now they say that looking back, it was really 247K. But that was nothing compared to what they did to November. Now they say November posted a gain of 465K jobs. That’s the most monthly gains since the tech bubble boom of the late 90’s. A time when there really were jobs galore.

1.8.2017 - Financial Intelligence Report

Will it Stop?

On Friday we got the release of the so called “proof” that the Russians influenced our election and pushed it for Trump. The main Stream media has been regurgitating this puke for weeks on end. This is the summary of the “official” statement:

We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election. Russia’s goals were to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency. We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump

So, where was it? Where was the smoking gun, the absolutely, concrete infallible proof that this was the Russians? Where is the E-mail or phone records showing Putting ordered this? Well there is none. Because it’s all speculation. There’s about 20 or so statements that read like this: