Trump’s Talk Could Mean War

Chinese President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan a priority. And what US President Donald Trump would say or do if Xi decided to assert the People's Republic's sovereignty by force is anyone’s guess.

NEW YORK – Even some of Donald Trump’s Republican supporters in the Senate did not doubt that the US president extorted a vulnerable ally to help him get re-elected in November by smearing a political rival. To be sure, they avoided using the word extortion. But, as Lamar Alexander, a senator from Tennessee, put it in a carefully worded statement: “It was inappropriate for the President to ask a foreign leader to investigate his political opponent and to withhold United States aid to encourage that investigation.”

And yet, the Senate’s Republican majority chose to acquit Trump. The message, warned Hakeem Jeffries, a Democratic Representative from New York, was that national security is for sale.

Trump’s acquittal will further dent people’s remaining confidence in how US foreign policy is conducted, but it won’t change many minds about the president himself. His reputation among autocrats and right-wing populists remains high. Among liberals, let alone “progressives,” his name remains mud.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Already have an account or want to create one to read two commentaries for free?
Log in

Support High-Quality Commentary

For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.

But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.

As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads and book reviews, Say More contributor interviews, The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.

By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.

The author appears to be ignorant of the provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 and Reagan's Six Assurances of 1982. Both have been recently reaffirmed. What this means is that whereas the US will not unconditionally support Taiwan- for example if it unilaterally declared independence and thus provoked China- there is no ambiguity whatsoever as to the US providing all necessary military assistance to repel a Chinese invasion.

It is very foolish to suggest that Trump's acquittal was anything but a foregone conclusion. The Democrats only succeeded in smearing Biden- their best hope of taking back the White House.

Buruma writes 'what if US adversaries decide to call Trump’s bluff?'

If the US has a treaty- as it does with Taiwan- then there is no 'bluff'. The thing is settled policy. The Pentagon has a full scale offensive doctrine which is amply supported and is 'ready to go'. So the answer to the question of what happens to a US adversary which thinks its treaty commitments are a bluff, is that that adversary gets bombed back to the stone age.

Buruma says 'If China’s government were certain that the US would intervene to prevent it from taking over Taiwan by force (as it has promised to do if “reunification” doesn’t happen peacefully), no sane Chinese leader would be likely to risk a war with America. But with Trump, China’s leaders cannot be sure.'

This is utterly mad. Trump has stood up to China as no other US President has done. It is now a strategic goal of the US to limit China's economic and technological growth. This may be difficult. By contrast, the US can severely degrade China's military capacity right now.

The sad truth is that the Chinese came to feel contempt for the Western leaders who were greedy for their money- though no doubt these were 'donations' to 'Foundations' of a supposedly Charitable type. Trump, by contrast, is what he appears to be. An irascible elderly American determined to keep the World the way it was when he was growing up.

China effectively threw down the gauntlet when they said it planned to be the best in EVERY area of AI in 30 years - effectively meaning they fully intend to render the USA to a 2nd tier power. With all their ugly flaws, I would rather have the USA than China as the sole super power in the World.

Ian Buruma fears Trump could go to war with China over Hong Kong and Taiwan, because Xi Jinping has vowed to bring the two back into China’s fold. In January 2019 Xi said Taiwan’s unification with China was inevitable, warning that Beijing reserved the right to use military force to take back Taiwan. Instead of sending tanks into Hong Kong to quell the protests, he had underlined Beijing’s support for the Hong Kong police to use force in handling the crisis. The author points out the precarious situation the people in Hong Kong and Taiwan find themselves in. On the one hand they need international support, or else their fight for freedoms and democracy are “probably doomed.” No doubt they are “well aware of Trump’s character flaws. But… “you can’t be too picky when it comes to your allies.” It may feed Trump’s ego that people in Hong Kong and Taiwan see him as their protector against Beijing, but he is more of a taker than a giver. They must have realised by now that Trump is impetuous and unreliable, easily influenced by what he sees on his TV. He changes his mind when he “feels like it,” without informing “even his closes advisers,” let alone overseas allies. His betrayal of the Syrian Kurds last October, allowing Turkey to invade northern Syria, speaks volumes. His foreign policy is marked by a transactional nature. Even when it comes to China, “Trump blows hot or cold. His policies depend less on US security than on how much money can be extracted from whom, and how it will look on Fox News. He brags about unleashing a trade war with China one day, and declares his deep admiration for Xi the next.”Initially the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong cut no ice with him, given his fawning admiration for autocratic leaders. He instead praised Xi, claiming the Chinese leader having “acted responsibly, very responsibly.” But after Congress passed a bill “promising sanctions against Hong Kong or Chinese officials accused of human rights abuses, Trump became a hero to the student protesters. Banners were waved thanking him and asking him to ‘liberate Hong Kong’” from Beijing’s clutches.Critics maintain Trump is arguably the most pro-Taiwan president in US history. On his watch, American warships sail through the Taiwan Strait on a routine basis, compared with just one to three times a year under Barack Obama. While both Obama and George W. Bush refused Taiwan’s requests to buy US F-16s for fear of provoking Beijing’s ire, Trump approved the fighter-jet sale – the first since 1992. And after the 2016 election, he broke protocol and became the first US president to speak directly with a Taiwanese leader since the US broke diplomatic relations in 1979 – President Tsai Ing-wen called to congratulate him on his victory. Immediately Beijing lodged a protest with the US over Trump’s call with Taiwan’s leader. Trump is known for his divide-and-conquer tactics, and may use his “Taiwan card” in trade negotiations with China, ready to throw Taiwan under the bus, when it suits him. The author says, “for US allies, the risks of taking Trump’s words of support at face value are obvious. But what if US adversaries decide to call Trump’s bluff?” The question is what Trump “would say or do if Xi decided to assert the People's Republic's sovereignty by force?” The leaders in Beijing know that US national security "is for sale. As cynical communists who opened their country to big business, they already believe that foreign capitalists care only about hard cash. They might well reasonably assume that Trump, offered some attractive financial deal, will let them do whatever they want.” Hence, what Trump would do is “anyone’s guess.”The problem is that Trump might need a war to distract the public from his many woes ahead of the November election. If the Chinese “think any objection of his is just blather. Cornered, Trump would then have to prove his manliness. And before we know it, East Asia, and possibly much more, would be in flames."However unlikely it may be, "but given Trump’s blustering, and China’s mixture of contempt and paranoia, such a scenario is all too easy to imagine.”Hawkish Republicans might support Trump's war against China over Taiwan, which has long been "the darling of anti-communist hardliners" within their party. They see China as a strategic adversary in their struggle for hegemony and will do anything to prevent China from overtaking the US as the world's largest economy and leader in technology.

J Von Hettlingen comments that Ian Buruma fears Trump could go to war with China over Hong Kong and Taiwan, because Xi Jinping has vowed to bring the two back into China’s fold. In January 2019 Xi said Taiwan’s unification with China was inevitable, warning that Beijing reserved the right to use military force to take back Taiwan.

New Comment

It appears that you have not yet updated your first and last name. If you would like to update your name, please do so here.

Pin comment to this paragraph

After posting your comment, you’ll have a ten-minute window to make any edits. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.

Mass protests over racial injustice, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a sharp economic downturn have plunged the United States into its deepest crisis in decades. Will the public embrace radical, systemic reforms, or will the specter of civil disorder provoke a conservative backlash?

For democratic countries like the United States, the COVID-19 crisis has opened up four possible political and socioeconomic trajectories. But only one path forward leads to a destination that most people would want to reach.

Log in/Register

Please log in or register to continue. Registration is free and requires only your email address.

Emailrequired

PasswordrequiredRemember me?

Please enter your email address and click on the reset-password button. If your email exists in our system, we'll send you an email with a link to reset your password. Please note that the link will expire twenty-four hours after the email is sent. If you can't find this email, please check your spam folder.