Friday, January 05, 2007

NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview and Picks

Key Question: Generally, do any of these teams have a chance of "pulling a Pittsburgh" and going from Wild Card Weekend all the way to a Super Bowl win? (My take: The Pats are always in that conversation until you see their losing score with your own eyes, and the Eagles going all the way would be so hilarious and disruptive -- because of the Garcia-McNabb factor -- that I could easily imagine Philly finally winning the Super Bowl... when their fans least expect it.)

More questions:

Chiefs at Colts: Will the Colts fold this week or next? Can the Chiefs continue their unlikely, playing-with-house-money run? PICK: COLTS.

Cowboys at Seahawks: Which team has even LESS momentum than the other? Do the Cowboys fold? Do the defending NFC champs get bounced? PICK: SEAHAWKS.

Jets at Pats: Can protege beat mentor? Can we please stop hearing about the protege-mentor relationship? PICK: PATS

Giants at Eagles: Does any team deserve to win this game less than the Giants? Does any team deserve to win this game more than the Eagles? PICK: EAGLES

What do you think: Key questions? X-factors? Storylines to watch? I'm much more interested in your analysis than mine. -- D.S.

67 comments:

My Pick:Ok, time for the playoffs and there are some interesting match ups for this First Round of the NFL Playoffs. Let's start with the Saturday Games.

Game #1:Kansas City at Indianapolis - If Kansas City and Larry Johnson can do a solid job of controlling the clock and running the ball on the Indy defense like just about every team has done on them, Then Peyton Manning is going to have to have the game of his life to win this game. And I just do not see that happening.

Prediction - Kansas City 27 Indianapolis 17

Game #2Dallas at Seattle - Why this is the Saturday Night Game I have no idea. This game has the potential to be the worst of the 4 macthups. Dallas comes off a humbling defeat to the Detroit Lions when they needed a win for a shot at the division title. Seattle is continuing to get better as Alexander and Hasselbeck continue to get healthy. Seattle with it recent playoff success and home field should make sort work of the overrated Tony Romo, Terrell "Mr Drops" Owens and the Dallas Comboys.

Predictions - Seattle 28 Dallas 10

On to the Sunday Games that have some interesting Division Match ups.

Game #1New York Jets at New England - The Mentor versus the Pupil. And this time the battle tested Patriots will get the best of Eric and the Jets. Mangini may have one the last time in Foxboro but this is the Playoffs and the Patriots just do not lose at home during the playoffs and the also have a history of not losing to teams twice in a Season.

Predictions - New England 24 New York 13

Game #2New York Giants at Philadelphia - This game should be a slugfest. The red hot Eagles taking on the lucky to be there Giants. Manning versus the resurgant Jeff Garcia. And in this game I think the Veteran Leadership that Garcia provides as well as Andy Reids playoff experience leads the way.

What would Jeff Garcia guiding the Iggles to a SB championship do to Mcnabb's stock in Philly? Before Garcia came on, nobody really expected the Eagles to even make the playoffs as I recall, and now they are favored in the first round. And in the NFC, shit, any team could come out of there and get to the Superbowl this year. What would that do to McNabb's psyche? I for one would be ultimately amused if the "had-been" QB stepped in and delivered Philly it's first championship in any sport in decades while the golden child is rehabbing an injury.

I think the Colts win this weekend. That Defense plays alot better at home, a solid 40-50 less yards allowed rushing then away games. Should be enough. And that would put them facing Baltimore the following weekend. I think the Colts win that game too.

Pats and Jets.. kind of tough, I have been waiting for the training wheels to fall off the Jets all year and they haven't. And the "Mangenius" (to use Kornheiser's name) beat Bellicheck the last game. I kind of hope the Jets pull off the upset, but being a Colts fan, I think the Pats are the only team capable of taking out the Chargers in SD. If that worked out.. AFC champ game Pats vs Colts in Indy.. I like the Colts chances then.

NFC, I think Dallas wins that game this weekend. Scary stats showing parcels wins the SB in his 4th year as a coach, AND each time has been 10 years apart, which is where we are now I think.

Home teams are 2-6 the last two years in the Wild Card Round. I think they'll triple their win total this year, because I can't see the Chiefs stopping Peyton Manning, I can't see Dallas (read: Detroit's bitches) slowing down Seattle, I can't see the Jets beating the Patriots twice in the same year, and no one can see Eli Manning winning a road playoff game. Maybe ever.

What people forget about that Second Pats-Jets game is that this was the First Game after the Patriots Lost Rodney Harrison to injury and Ty Warren who has bee n the Pats best defense player was out for the game causing Seymour who was coming back from an Elbow Injury to play out of his normal position. It was also the last game before the patriots put in field turf and they have not lost a home game since.

I would have to go with the home teams, but match up problems (CB injuries) could prove enough in the SEA vs. DAL, NYG might find the switch for that talent they keep touting in Philly, and Peyton may not be able to overcome the handicapped team the Colts have hung on him this year.

The only one I would bet on would be the NE/NYJ game. Does anybody really think Bellicheck is going to let his team lose at home twice in the same season to his assistant? If the Pats are trailing late, then don't be surprised to see the gatorade getting spiked on the Jets sideline. Bill will keep the devil on speed dial just in case he needs to make an addendum to his current deal.

Hey Daddy Rosee for that to happen Peyton manning would actually have to lead his team to a win in a big game and when did that ever happen. Sorry but there defense just is not good enough to beat San Diego or Baltimore.

AFC: NE and IndyAs much as I'd love to see KC beat Indy because 1)I hate Manning and 2) It means NE doesn't go to SD next weekend, it ain't happening. All the talk about LJ running over the Colts D might be true. But the Chefs have ZERO chance of stopping Manning unless his head implodes.

NFC Seattle and PhillyEven though Dallas and NY loses, all the bobbleheads do is talk about those teams for the next week. But at least it will shorten the torture by a week if they lose now rather than play again.

Just when you think you have everything figured out this year, it all changes. Giants over Eagles, for no reason other than that.

Dayne ran the ball and controlled the clock for Houston in their victory over Indy. Imagine what Larry Johnson can do? Chiefs by 3.

Seattle is getting healthy, on offense anyway, they're at home, and Dallas is coming apart at the seams. Dallas by 14. Using the same logic as the first pick.

Patriots by 10 in the most boring game ever televised. Except maybe the week 16 game involving Minn-GB. I am mainly picking the Patriots because I despise them, and know they are winning another SB just to make my life miserable.

Final note, so long Cowher. Thanks for the Super Bowl title, but there could have been a lot more if your teams would not have lost 4 AFC title games, 2 of which you were heavily favored in. Am I complaining about a winning coach? Yup.

"...c’mon people – are you really that confident in Jeff Garcia leading Philadelphia into the Promised Land? The man hasn’t had a productive season since the days when I could wake up at noon and consider it 'an early day'..."

"...the Giants could hold on and win this thing outright. But even if they don’t, seven points is too much to give up in any NFC game."

1997) Kordell turning the ball over twice in the red zone in a 3-point loss

2001) Kordell (again) and the special teams.

2004) Ben being a rookie and hitting the wall at the end of the season.

You can even look back at SB XXX and say that Cowher outcoached Barry Switzer - although that's not saying much - but holding Emmitt Smith under 60 yards, controlling the ball, recovering the onside kick, and having the ball in the 4th quarter with the chance to take the lead (Before Neil O'Donnell decided to fatten Larry Brown's wallet with two gifts)... that was good coaching, considering the Cowboys were incredibly good that year (and obviously had more talent).

I'll take the one big win and the many near misses over no wins and many losing seasons, as most other fans have to endure.

I mean, seriously: Just *getting* to two title games with Kordell under center should put Cowher in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

I think the Pats are running on old mojo. Brady is banged up, who knows if/when Dillon will show up and the D is old and suspect (especially without Harisson). The Jets have an overacheiving team, but momentum on their side. I'll buck the trend and take the Jets.

Other picks:Philly over Giants - Please, I just can't take anymore Eli, Burress and Shockey. This weekend, the Tom Coughlin era will end...badly.

Dallas over Seattle - As big a soap opera as the Cowboys were this season, I just don't have the confidence in Seattle.

Stooncer - Brady is fine and has been playing well in the last couple of games, Dillon had a decent season (812 yds, 13tds)and should be strong for the playoffs especially with the way the Patriots use him and Maroney. The defense played pretty well in the games without Harrison they were 4-2 in the games w/o him and gave up just over 13 point per game in those games. which is actually one point less then there season average. And the patriots are getting healthy with Wilfork coming back this week.

ma4tt - I'll give you the 2004 argument, because I agree with that completely.

As for '94, I was 11 at the time and really do not recall anything about the game except for the 4th down play that sealed it. Afterwards I went up to my room and cried. I would say though, that being heavily favored, at home, and losing. is bad.

Let's add in '95 for fun here. Again, heavily favored, at home. Trailing by 3 with 2:40 or so left. It took an amazing tackle by Lake on a 3rd and 1, an amazing catch by Mills for 40 yards, and a Colt receiver dropping the hail mary he had in his chest/hands for us to win.

2001, once again, heavily favored, at home. For the love of god! We gave up a TD drive to Bledsoe when Brady got hurt! BLEDSOE!

To review, 3 times we were at home and heavily favored, lost 2, barely won the third. Add with that, it took us being not heavily favored to finally win the damn Super bowl. I would say Cowher coaches down to teams, the same problem Jacksonville had this year. Am I making it too simple? Maybe.

Lastly, the Kordell stuff. It really is hard to argue around that because he was terrible. But part of him being terrible is Cowher's fault as well. He did not coach him up as well as he could have. He hung onto him entirely too long. And he did not game plan properly around him like you would a Jake Plummer.

Ken, Cowher will get in the HOF compare his coaching resume to John Madden's.

Madden coached from 1969-1978. He won Super Bowl XI and until he won that one he was tagged as the coach who could not win the big game. Including the post-season his career record is 112-39-7.

Cowher coached from 1992-2006. He also won the 1 Super Bowl and until he won was considered a coach who could not win the big game. Including the post-season his record is 161-99-1.

Madden did win 70% of his games compared to Cowher's 61%. But Cowher coached 5 years more than Madden. Cowher was also coaching in this "era of parity" and almost every year they were in the playoffs which is pretty amazing. When Madden was coaching in the AFC the Raiders, Steelers and Dolphins and Colts were in the playoff almost every year of Madden's career.

When it comes time Cowher will be elected and it will be on the 1st ballot but like many people have said he is only 49 and him coming back to coach is a strong possibility and if goes to the right place he might have a chance to win another Super Bowl. People thinking he would go to the Skins for a huge pay day are wrong. Do you really think he would want to go from the Rooney family and their hands off appoach to a micromanaging midget like Dan Snyder should probably think again.

Not sure I can forgive Kordell for 5 turnovers in those two games. My point is that I am 100% positive he was specifically told, a thousand times, NOT to throw into double coverage in the end zone, and instead to make something happen with his legs. Zip zip zip, three picks later... game over.

Also, don't forget in 2001 - one blocked FG, 2 returns for TDs. That's not bad coaching - that's piss-poor execution. I hurt just as much as you did watching those games, but in the end... well... it comes down to players executing. I thought Cowher did a good job of putting them in the position to execute - it just didn't happen, for whatever reason.

On Cowher getting into the HOF: The Steelers had the best winning percentage of any team since Cowher took over in 1992. 15 years, in this day and age, is an eternity for a coach. 10 playoff appearances and being in 6 AFC title games is just ridiculous; on average, teams should expect to reach the playoffs roughly 6 times and reach your conference championship twice in 15 years.

Also, don't forget that he has been a coach in this league for 20 years, not just the 15 he spent with Pittsburgh. He succeeded a legend and became a legend in his own right. I think that even if he never comes back to the NFL, he'd still be a first-ballot guy. As it is, he's probably going to coach another 10-15 years - and by then, he's a mortal lock for the HOF. In my mind, he's right where LDT is - more than likely a first-ballot guy right now, and 100% sure to be by the end of his career.

I hesitate to say this, I personally would never bet against them, but I think the Patriots can't make it. They've had a real soft schedule this year. Any team with a decent D (and the Chargers and Ravens are superb) will take Brady and his non-receivers completely out of the game. Their defense just isn't good enough to make up for that.

My super bowl would be Chargers losing to Eagles with bad officiating being prominently involved.

I wish people wouldn't indict McNabb, he had a pretty good season and he lost to better defenses than Garcia.

KC over Indy as (1) KC has played well the past two weeks; (2) Indy has looked poor the past four weeks or so; (3) Herm Edwards has punked Dungy in the playoffs before; (4) Dungy's recent playoff performances are worse than even his earlier ones; (4) home teams don't have that good a record on wild card weekend; and (6) Peyton's ad frenzy is like Marino's "next year I'm buying" Super Bowl ad - karma, baby.

Jets over NE - (1) NE defense is dinged up and will miss Harrison; (2) Mangini can play some head games on Brady; (3) the Jets' O-Line has played extremely well lately; and (4) see #5 above.

Sea over Dal - (1) Romo's weaknesses have been seen on film lately; (2) TO appears to have worked his magic in the locker room; (3) Alexander is due for a huge game and Dal couldn't even stop Brian Westbrook two weeks ago; and (4) the Parcells post-defeat meltdown is irresistable, even to him.

Phi over Giants - this almost reaches moral certainty. (1) Coughlin has lost all his players; (2) Lil' Bro has lost his confidence; (3) Tiki left it all on the field last week; (4) the Giants' pass defense is hideous; (5) Garcia's already punked the Giants in a post-season matchup and is ready to do it again; and (5) Reid can outcoach many coaches and many coaches can outcoach Coughlin.

I think its a slippery slope. I have to believe Madden's election was as much on his 'statesman of the game' status and the presence he continued to maintain after his retirement. Although he did get elected for his coaching tenure.

I would compare Cowher's coaching tenure favorable if not better than Madden's. But if that is the new bar for the HOF, how many other current coaches make it?

Brian Billick, Bill Bellicheck, Mike Holmgreen, Bill Parcells, Joe Gibbs, Jon Gruden, Mike Shanahan, and Marty Shottenheimer have to be considered. Tony Dungy and Andy Reid (and practically any other coach) are a SB title away from this list.

This doesnt even count the guys that are not currently coaching and have not made the ballot.

According to wikipedia there are currently 15 coaches in the HOF.

Depending on where the bar is set, the number of coaches could be increased by a third just from those in the league this year.

The way this season is going, at least ONE home team is going to lose. Yep, that’s right, here come the Cowboys. I don’t like them, but they’ve got talent everywhere and on both sides of the ball. Seattle hasn’t beaten ANYBODY. Sure, Parcells can’t coach anymore. But Jones/Barber is good enough at RB. Owens/Shemale is great at WR. Romo is fine. The line is solid. They’ll put up points. All the D has to do is contain Matt Hasselbeck. Not exactly the most difficult of assignments. Dallas 31, Seattle 17.

With coaches, perception is a big thing. Winning a SB is necessary, but not the only factor that gets a coach into the HOF.Belichick, if he stays at NE for a few more years, will be an HOF coach.Parcells has the reputation of a coach that will get your team into the SB. That's perception.Billick's reputation is of an offensive mind who has not had a good offense in any year that he's been a head coach. That's why, despite an SB, he wouldn't be an HOF coach.Cowher has the right reputation to merit HOF status.

Only a pure genius that is Belichick has a head large enough to fit Mangini.

In his head? how so? because his team won a game earlier this year? So is Nick Saban in Belichick's head? Tony Dungy? Heck, Dungy's won two in a row from the Pats....

How did the Jets go from a team that would be lucky to win 4 or 5 games this year to suddenly being good enough to beat a 12-win, three-time champ on the road? Did I miss something? Do the Jets scare ANYONE? As long as the Pats respect them and prepare properly, this won't be close. Yes, the Jets are a team that can sneak up on you, but they already "used that up" back in November.

Ken last time I check Coach Hood has 3 Super Bowl rings which should easily get him in the HOF and Joe Gibbs has already been inducted because of his 3 Super Bowl rings and his outstanding record with the Skins from the 80s to the mid 90s.

Once Parcells officially retires he will get in, 2 Super Bowl rings took the Pats to the Super Bowl and had the Jets contending before he quit. Shannahan might need one more Super Bowl to get in but his back to backs look pretty good.

Mike, Cohwer had a HOF resume before he won the SB he just needed the SB to get over the hump. Bud Grant and Marv Levy are 2 examples of coaches who did not need to win the SB to get in the HOF. Billick reminds me a lot of George Seifert. Seifert won 2 SB but he will only get to Canton if he buys a ticket, same with Billick.

I honestly think KC gets pounded tomorrow by the Colts. I think the defense really performs when the RCA dome crowd gets behind them. Bob Sanders should be in the lineup again to help out. If you need a refresher on what he can do.. go review the Colts vs. Pats earlier this year gametape as he ate them up. Dallas Clark practiced and is looking like he will play.

I think everyone out there has forgotten that the Colts are A) 12-4, and B) they won most of the 'tough' games they played. They would be 14-2 if it weren't for 2 last second field goal wins. The Dallas game I think the Colts were looking to lose to get the undefeated talk out of the way. So really the only bad game was that Jacksonville atrocity. Honestly though, I think I prefer everyone expecting the Colts to be one and done. Go ahead and hang your SB pick on the Chargers, with a 1st year as starter QB and Martyball likely to rear it's head any game now. NE got beatdown more then the final score shows. The Colts could have won that game by 2 TDs if Peyton had wanted to.. instead he just ate the last 6.5 minutes off the clock and kneeled on it at the end. Baltimore may have a defense, but does their offense scare anyone? I firmly believe the Colts have to be one of the favored to win it all regardless of the past month.

Indianapolis will destroy the Chiefs, The game will be over by halftime. Colts are 8-0 at home, Chiefs are 3-5 on the road. LJ won't be much of a factor at all, he'll get his yards, but they'll mostly be meaningless.

Colts 45-17

Dallas beats Seattle cause both teams suck and 3 point underdogs on the road are 22-6 ATS and 20-10 overall. I'll take those odds

Cowboys 24 Seattle 14

Patriots beat the Jets in a boring game 20-3

Giants and Eagles will be the best game of the bunch. Garcia has been flirting with disaster during this whole run and will finally have a bad week. Tiki runs wild and Plaxico gets a long TD. Giants 20 Eagles 17

Indy over KC. The Chiefs are terrible away from home and didn't even expect to be in the playoffs. LJ can run all he wants, but the Colts are on a mission this year, and don't think they've forgotten last year's miserable loss to Pittsburgh.

Seattle over Dallas. Dallas couldn't stop Jon Kitna at home; how are they going to stop Hasselbeck on the road? The Seahawks aren't playing great, but the home crowd will tip the balance.

Patriots over Jets. But closer than people think.

Eagles over Giants. This one makes me nervous because it has all the hallmarks of a "letdown game" for the Eagles, who had a huge push to win the division. Then I remember that if not for a 62-yard field goal, a flukey 4th quarter/overtime, and a flukey injury, they would be 12-4. The Giants will be up for this game, but the Eagles will complete the home sweep--the most unlikely outcome in this unpredictable season.

This has got to be the least exciting wild card round I can remember. I think only the Patriots and Eagles in this group can even be considered SB contenders, and they are both tenative.

Indy vs. Kc- When in doubt stick with the home team.. Indy

Sea vs. Dallas- No doubt here, Dallas just isn't that good. (Isn't Parcells supposed to be a genius coach. This team has more talent than any team in the NFC and they are a wild card team?)

Jets vs. Pats- Two teams that has the advantage of the easiest schedules. jets played 8 games against bottom 10 teams (going 6-2) and NE played 6. It's even worse for that than the Jest as they got to play TN before Vince Young. Well the Jets were 1-4 against playoff teams and NE is 2-2, so I'll take NE.

Eagles vs. Giants: Garcia vs. Manning v1.5? I'll take the Eagles because of far superior coaching. (and a coach who doesn't call out his QB when he loses unlike Coghlin who wants his players to talk to him when they rip him, and rips Eli every chance he gets in the press).

I can't see how Cowher has done enough to warrant HoF consideration. He's still really young, so if he un-retires and makes another SB run, it's possible.

Madden totally got in on his videogame and announcing credentials. And I have no problem with that. He pretty much defined the 90's to 0's generation of football, with it's fawning over celebrities, it's constant hyping, it's videogame, fantasy gaming explosion and it's commercial tie-ins. The fact he coached the Raiders once is an add-in.

He's our Frank Cosell.

Madden IS football. He should get the HoF named after him, because this was football's golden era and I don't think it gets better.

Indy over KC - So what if Indy can't stop the run? They haven't stopped the run all season and they're 13-3. They're perfect at home so far, and how is KC gonna stop Manning, Harrison and Wayne? Once KC falls behind, they'll have to go to the pass game, which sucks.

NFC:

My rule on the NFC is: Always take the points. Every NFC team is so inconsistant, it's just a matter of which team shows up. When picking winners...then you look at the matchups.

Cowboys over Seahawks - A lot has been made of the Cowboys' recent struggles. But what hasn't been mentioned as often is that the Seahawks suck. They were 8-8 this year! They didn't beat a single team with a winning record! I know that's a tough place to play, but the Seahawks have an awful secondary that can make even Tony Romo look good.

Giants over Eagles - Why are the Eagles such heavy favorites in this game? They played just three weeks ago, and the game went down to the wire. What has changed since then? And did you ever think at the beginning of the season that people would be wagering heavily on Jeff Garcia over Eli Manning? Plus, the Eagles can't stop the run.

Please, don't bring that up again. It was bad enough seeing clips of it every 30 seconds during the game today.

And this is just a rotten, rotten football game. The Chiefs can't hold onto anything, Peyton's into full playoff mode, and the Herm Edwards school of clock management made an appearance on BOTH sides at the end of the half.

two things...1) i didn't get to post before the game but my question wasn't can the colts stop LJ ... it was can the Chiefs stop the Colts offense EARLY (aka if colts scored fast, chiefs can't run, and its goes downhill)

2) well my questions were answered, the Chiefs did stop the Colts and the Colts did stop LJ ... problem there is the Chiefs stopped the Colts on turnovers, and the Colts were moving the ball. Chiefs offense was embarrasing, LJ couldnt go anywhere and Green looked go awful, i was waiting for Herm to put in Huard ... why not?

now time for this cowboys/'hawks game, its either gonna be amazing, or one team is gonna take control and be a blowout ... lets hope its a close battle, but a good close battle, not a crappy one

Colts had 135 yards on drives they didnt score, showing they still moved the ball, Chiefs had 62 which seems like alot. Barely paid at the end so must've been alot of garbage yards for them at that point.

If it weren't for the 3 Colts TO's this game woulda been a blowout, end of story. And don't go saying that the Ravens are going to KILL the Colts (which I've heard alot of) ... i am NOT a believer in the Ravens offense

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