State of Origin: Game 1 Preview – New South Wales v Queensland

State of Origin: Game 1

New South Wales v Queensland

Wednesday June 1, 8:00pm

Match Overview

“State against State, Mate against Mate” is the catch-cry delivered for State of Origin and there can be no arguing that these matches represent the pinnacle of the sport.

There were few surprises at the selection table with the biggest bolter Dylan Walker in the utility spot on the NSW interchange bench. As usual incumbents like Nate Myles and Robbie Farah were favoured despite their club form being below its best.

Josh Dugan was selected in the centres but has been forced out by injury, replaced by Josh Morris. Arguably this makes NSW a stronger unit given Dugan is more comfortable playing fullback.

On paper Queensland have the advantage with a more familiar line-up, they ooze class and experience. They hand debuts to outside back Corey Oates and Justin O’Neill but those two aside this is pretty much the same 17 that won last year’s series with a thumping 52-6 victory in the deciding match at Lang Park.

NSW have picked a massive forward pack (inclusive of the bench players) and I envisage them taking Queensland on through the middle, whereas Queensland will likely look to exploit the edges given the creativeness they are blessed with.

Sydney Olympic Park has had 16.4mm of rain (as at 20:30 Tuesday) and with the likelihood of further rain leading up to and throughout the match it is quite possible that the conditions will suit the NSW style of play.

Historical Match Statistics

(1980-82 excluded due to one-off matches and/or 3 point tries)

I’ve focused my study on Game 1 of each series

Overall (Played 33 NSW 16 Qld 15 Draw 2)

Median Margin 4 points

Median Total Score 28

Margin Probability

Home 13+ – 12%

Home 1-12 – 36%

Away 1-12 – 40%

Away 13+ – 6%

Draw – 6%

Under/Over 30.5 points. Under 17 Over 16

In NSW (Played 14 NSW 7 Qld 6 Draw 1)

Series of margins from most recent (2015) to oldest (1988) {1,8,4,8,1,0,28,4,1,2,4,8,8,8}

Either team under 6.5 points (including draw) probability 1.75

Under/Over 30.5 points. Under 8 Over 6.

Betting Strategy

The historical trends tell us that there is nothing in this match and the market agrees. I’m leaning to NSW under the likely conditions but am more strongly convinced of a very close game either way.

Assuming a 3 unit bet to be a maximum bet I recommend:

BACK – Under 30.5 points at 1.7+ for 1 unit.

BACK – Either team under 6.5 in the Tri Bet market at 2.0+ for 2 units.