As the rumor mill cranks up, we learn that the iPad 3 will be released in March and analysts and bloggers speculate that it will include almost everything is the public wantsmainly the ultra-high resolution retina display.

All the other elements of the device should see some improvement, including the processing power. A few cynics are discussing the lack of a quad-core as some sort of drawback, but I do not see that as a deal breaker. This, in fact, will be the iPad I finally buy, if I can convince myself that I'll actually do something with it.

Most of the people I see with iPads bought them enthusiastically, but now let the devices languish in limbo, resorting to their iPhones instead for minor Web surfing and searches.

Is it possible that the iPad market may be close to saturation, with no serious replacement market? You have to wonder what will happen after the iPad 3. Will there be an iPad 4? If so, then why? The iPad 2 and iPad 3 should fill the demand for this sort of device and continue to do so for years to come. What would an iPad 4 do that would make everyone want to trade up for the latest version?

In other words, I think something has been created that the world as whole has always hoped for but the tech community never (though it would never admit it) wanted: an appliance. Think "toaster."

When you buy a toaster, you don't buy another one in a year, and then another one in two years. You buy one until it craps out. This is exactly what we have here with the iPad.

When I get my iPad 3, I seriously do not expect to get an iPad 4 or iPad 5. I mean, besides a faster processor, what else will it be able to do? Can it be so sleek that I need to get the next one? There are not enough design possibilities with any of these devices. It has a big screen, a bezel, and a backside. I mean, what is there to change? Maybe the feel and maybe the color, but so what? In a few more years, the iPad will not be a fashion statement anymore.

That's not to say the sales will tank because they certainly won't. But like toasters, iPads will saturate the market. Once you get that toaster, you probably will not care about newer models, no matter how trendy the design.

Design has three purposes in marketing. The first is to create an initial impression and hopefully a recognizable look that will attract buyers. Then, if the design is in flux, it can create the market for a repeat sale. This is the second use of design. It happened in the 1950s, when the American automotive industry was radically changing its car designs every year. People would trade in the old for the new. The third use of design, which applies to iPads and toasters, is to generate new customers for a saturation purchase. You didn't like the iPad 2 and its look, feel, and features? How about the iPad 3? Or the iPad 4? Eventually, you will get a sale and the market saturation will trend toward 100 percent.

Now, this sort of dead-end product is not what anyone wants to see, ever. There is no churn.

You can be sure some trickery will be forthcoming to make a newer version appealing to the owners of the older iPads, including a brighter OLED display and perhaps some weird software that requires the latest and greatest processor. This sort of software pressure has worked in the past with the PC business in general. Some machines simply could not run the newest programs without being bogged down.

Unless Apple has overlooked the dead-end future of the iPad, it must be working on some sort of product that will need a newer, faster system and be unusable on older versions.

If this is not already in the works, then you can be sure that the iPad 3 will effectively be the end of the line for the iPad.

About the Author

John C. Dvorak is a columnist for PCMag.com and the co-host of the twice weekly podcast, the No Agenda Show. His work is licensed around the world. Previously a columnist for Forbes, PC/Computing, Computer Shopper, MacUser, Barrons, the DEC Professional as well as other newspapers and magazines. Former editor and consulting editor for InfoWorld, he... See Full Bio

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