Tag Archives: referendum

Johnson, pictured on the final day of campaigning, ran a campaign dominated by the promise to take the UK out of the EU (Reuters)

Once again, pollsters were wrong. And once again, conservatives benefitted.

The vote was supposed to be close. There was a lot of talk of a “hung” parliament, where there’s not enough seats to give any party a majority. This would have been the worst outcome. As it was, the Conservatives won, as they did in Australia earlier in the year; and in the 2016 US election when every prediction was that Hillary Clinton would be president.

It seems that people do not answer pollsters truthfully. Perhaps it’s because people are embarrassed to say they are Conservative, but vote with their wallets on election day. Margaret Thatcher won every time and that was the explanation. Well, whatever the reason, Boris Johnson won a landslide, the biggest vote for the Conservatives since Mrs. Thatcher in the 80s.

My home town of Grimsby, in the North of England, returned a Conservative MP for the first time in my lifetime. Others did the same. Partly, this was disillusionment with the Labor Party (socialists), who have promised much over the years, but delivered little. This time, according to analysis on Sky News, they promised 28 times as much as the Conservatives, an amount of money that would have been impossible to deliver.

But the main issue was Brexit. The Conservatives had a definite plan to get out of the European Union by January 31st. Labour’s plan was more negotiations with the EU, then a second referendum. There was a referendum in 2016 and those wanting to leave won. The experience of the last few years has been that many politicians refused to honor the referendum result. None of them were returned in last week’s election.

It’s the same with Scotland. A referendum there in 2014 showed the majority of Scots wanting to remain in the United Kingdom. But Mrs. Nicola Sturgeon refuses to accept that result and wants a second referendum. If successful, would she allow a third referendum seven years later when disillusionment with the reality of independence sets in? Doubtful. The Scottish people are subsidized by the English taxpayer to the tune of almost 2,000 pounds a year per person. Independence must mean a drop in living standards. Her hope is that Germany will help. But Germany is going to have to bail out everybody in Europe now that Britain is leaving.

However, the issue of Scottish independence is not going away. Boris Johnson has pledged to preserve the union, but even he is going to find that hard.

It’s not just Scotland, either. Northern Ireland presents another problem. For the first time ever, there are more Republican MPs from that region. The Unionists lost out for the first time. The Irish Republicans (who favor a united socialist Ireland) will be demanding independence at the same time as the Scots. If either breaks away, British security will be compromised. The UK’s nuclear base is in Clyde on the Scottish west coast. There’s also a big military presence in Northern Ireland.

But Brexit is first. Mr. Johnson has promised to deliver by the end of next month. There is no impediment in his way. There will follow eleven months of negotiations with the EU on a trade deal. The Europeans say that is impossible, it will take at least two years. With the election, power has shifted. The Europeans will have to deliver a trade deal by the end of 2020 if they want to keep British trade, and they will want to. The German car industry relies on Britain for 20% of its sales. They are not going to throw that away for the sake of teaching Britain a lesson.

The election result should benefit the US, too. Mr. Johnson has a personal friendship with Mr. Trump. Both were born in New York City. Both are known for their hair. And both are against globalism, preferring to put their country first.

The trend against pollsters may prove the same in 2020, when Donald Trump faces who knows who for the Democrats. In spite of impeachment (which isn’t going anywhere and seems solely to benefit hundreds of lawyers, all billing the taxpayer) and opinion polls that will show him losing to Elizabeth Buttagieg, or Bernie Biden, Donald Trump is most likely to win. The longer the impeachment process continues, the more support he has.

This is the big question – after all Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t just want to hold a referendum, she wants to win one.

Polling data collected by What Scotland Thinks suggests an increase in support for independence – but it generally remains just short of a majority. Excluding “don’t knows,” the average of polls this year has been 51% No to 49% Yes. The average for 2018 was 55% to 45% – the same as the 2014 referendum.

Would an independent Scotland stay in the EU? In practice, Scotland would not become independent the day after a Yes vote – there would have to be a period of transition. In 2014, the pro-independence side said it would take 18 months to set up an independent Scottish state. Even if a referendum was held tomorrow, the transition would therefore run beyond the end of 2020 – when the UK is due to complete its exit from the EU. This means Scotland would leave the EU with the rest of the UK, and would need to apply to join again.

Scotland would have to jump through the same hoops as any state seeking to join the EU, although it would have the advantage of having recently been a member.

Sturgeon’s own party’s prospectus for independence suggests this could take several years, whereas she wants to rejoin the EU as quickly as possible. The first minister also wants to avoid a hard border between Scotland and England.

The Senate foreign relations committee has voted unanimously in favor of a bipartisan bill that would prevent Trump from unilaterally withdrawing the US from Nato. The isolationist-inclined president is a noted sceptic of the transatlantic military alliance, and last week left the Nato summit in London early after the emergence of a hot mic video in which other world leaders appeared to be mocking him. The bill will now await a slot for a full vote in the Senate. (The Guardian, 12/12)

The largest arms producers in the USA and Western Europe, including German companies, have further increased their already predominant share of global arms production, as can be seen in the analysis published yesterday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI. SIPRI analyzed the sales of the world’s Top 100 arms-producers and concluded that 83 percent of their output comes from 70 companies headquartered in countries of the self-proclaimed community of western values. Whereas the combined sales of the Top 100 arms companies have increased by 4.6 percent, compared to the preceding year, those of the US and West European companies have increased by around 5.2 percent.

Currently the production of military hardware is also massively expanding in Germany. The armaments division of the Düsseldorf-based Rheinmetall Group was able to boost its sales by 11.8 percent in the first nine months of this year. The increase of defense budget is promising business in the billions. German arms exports are also rising dramatically. (German Foreign Policy, 12/11)

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A 5,000-Year-Old Plan to Erase Debts Is Now a Hot Topic in America In ancient Babylon, a newly enthroned king would declare a jubilee, wiping out the population’s debts. In modern America, a faint echo of that idea call it jubilee-lite, is catching on. (Bloomberg, 10 Dec 2019)

Support for write-offs has been driven by Democratic presidential candidates. Elizabeth Warren says she’d cancel most of the $1.6 trillion in U.S. student loans. Bernie Sanders would go further -– erasing the whole lot, as well as $81 billion in medical debt. But it’s coming from other directions too. In October, one of the Trump administration’s senior student-loan officials resigned, calling for wholesale write-offs and describing the American way of paying for higher education as “nuts.’’ Real-estate firm Zillow cites medical and college liabilities as major hurdles for would-be renters and home buyers.

Moody’s Investors Service listed the headwinds from student debt -– less consumption and investment, more inequality — and said forgiveness would boost the economy like a tax cut. While the current debate centers on college costs, long-run numbers show how debt has spread through the economy. The U.S. relies on consumer spending for growth -– but it hasn’t been delivering significantly higher wages. Household borrowing has filled the gap, with low interest rates making it affordable. And that’s not unique to America. Steadily growing debts of one kind or another are weighing on economies all over the world.

The idea that debt can grow faster than the ability to repay, until it unbalances a society, was well understood thousands of years ago, according to Michael Hudson, an economist and historian. Last year Hudson published “And Forgive Them Their Debts,’’ a study of the ancient Near East where the tradition known as a “jubilee” — wiping the debt-slate clean — has its roots. He describes how the practice spread through civilizations including Sumer and Babylon, and came to play an important role in the Bible and Jewish law. Rulers weren’t motivated by charity, Hudson says. They were being pragmatic — trying to make sure that citizens could meet their own needs and contribute to public projects, instead of just laboring to pay creditors. And it worked, he says. “Societies that canceled the debts enjoyed stable growth for thousands of years.’’

A rare viral infection known as monkeypox has been diagnosed in England. The virus likely was contracted by a person in Nigeria.

Monkeypox could replace smallpox as a most dreaded disease. The related smallpox virus was eradicated in 1980, thanks to Western technology. (White people are often condemned for spreading smallpox, but seldom credited with destroying the virus worldwide.)

JOHANNESBURG – Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema on Sunday spelled out the party’s ambitious vision to lead the entire African continent to economic freedom. Speaking at the party’s second national people’s assembly in Nasrec, south of Johannesburg, Malema explained that it was only natural that economic freedom came from the south. The gathering was expected to come to an end on Monday.

Governing South Africa may have appeared to be a tall order for the EFF, but this was just one dream that formed part of even bolder ambitions. Malema wants the six-year-old organisation to have a presence everywhere on the continent. “Our vision is not these small-minded things you’re thinking about; we want to lead Africa. We want a United States of Africa with one currency, economy, and judiciary,” Malema said.

The party’s vision appeared to be inspired by late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi who dreamt of a United States of Africa. This plan could well be underway with formations from Liberia, Malawi, and Namibia who were among the guests attending the second people’s assembly in Nasrec.
(https://www.iafrica.com/we-want-a-united-states-of-africa-malema/)

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TO THE POINT

Authorities in Australia warned that a “mega-blaze” was threatening the north-western suburbs of Sydney. Covering about 400,000 hectares, the bushfire has already destroyed over 20 homes and is moving into the Blue Mountains area, a popular tourist destination. A heatwave is not helping; the Bureau of Meteorology advised that the record for the highest-ever temperature could be broken this week. (The Economist, 12/17)

America’s defence secretary said he needs to speak with his Turkish counterpart about remarks made by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On Sunday Mr. Erdogan issued a new threat: that it may shut down America’s Incirlik air base in eastern Anatolia. A worsening chill between the two NATO allies has made America jittery about the nuclear warheads it stores there. (The Economist, 12/17)

Chief Advisor To Turkish President Erdoğan: ‘The Islamic World Should Prepare An Army For Palestine From Outside Palestine’ (MEMRI 12/2)

A special court in Pakistan has sentenced former military leader Pervez Musharraf to death on charges of treason and subversion of the constitution. Mr. Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999 and ruled until 2008. The sentence was largely seen as symbolic, as the former leader is currently in exile in Dubai. (The Economist, 12/17)

Protests in India, against a citizenship law designed to exclude Muslims from naturalisation, escalated in their fifth day. In Delhi police clashed with protesters around a Muslim university; at least 100 were injured and buses were set on fire. Other campuses around the country erupted in anger. In India’s north-east, where immigration is generally opposed, six people have been killed. (The Economist, 12/16)

Chief Advisor To Turkish President Erdoğan: ‘The Islamic World Should Prepare An Army For Palestine From Outside Palestine’ (MEMRI 12/2)

65 of Britain’s MPs returned to the House of Commons last week are minorities. That’s 10%. Take away the 59 Scots, and the percentage will increase to almost 20%. There were none a little over twenty years ago. This reflects Britain’s changing demographics, the result of massive immigration from the underdeveloped world since World War II.

I watched the British election on Sky News, a British 24/7 news channel available on “Watch Free”, a US streaming service. A day or two later, I was surprised to read that only 46, 000 people watched the election on Sky. The news company spent a small fortune on John Bercow, controversial former Speaker of the House of Commons, a commentator for the evening, who seemed to spend most of his time justifying his performance as Speaker.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo voiced strong support for protesters again and called on Iran’s leaders to stop their crackdown. (ABC News)

Pompeo: Iran uses Islamic Jihad to strike Israel

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday accused Iran of using its terrorist proxy Palestinian Islamic Jihad to strike our great ally Israel. In two tweets, Pompeo also wrote: “Iran does not want peace in the region. It does not want the Palestinian people to prosper. It wants more conflict. Until we address Iran’s threats, the cycle of violence will continue.” Pompeo went on to say: “The way forward is clear: continued pressure until Iran negotiates a comprehensive agreement that includes halting its support to terror groups like PIJ. Nations around the world can no longer claim to want peace in the region yet allow Iran’s threats to go unchallenged.” (Debka 11/16/2019)

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LEGACY OF FASCISM IN CROATIA

Serious accusations are being made concerning racist attacks, official commemorations honoring Nazi collaborators and excessive police brutality against refugees, are accompanying Croatia’s preparations for taking over the Presidency of the EU Council on January 1, 2020. Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Zagreb, yesterday, for consultations with Prime Minister Andrej Plenković about the duties he must assume in the context of Croatia’s council presidency. The Croat government will also seek to ward off refugees more efficiently. For years, Croatia’s border police have been using brute force to deport large numbers of refugees to Bosnia Herzegovina, in violation of international law. In addition, the Council of Europe has certified that the country is experiencing an increase in racism and glorification of the fascist Ustaša regime. One of the popular commemoration ceremonies honoring Croat Nazi collaborators is celebrated under the “patronage” of Croatia’s parliament in Zagreb. (German Foreign Policy, 11/22/2019)

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TOTAL COST OF WARS

Since terrorists destroyed the World Trade Center and killed thousands upon thousands of innocent American citizens, U.S. taxpayers have spent $6.4 trillion on wars and military action in the Middle East and Asia, according to a new report by the Watson Institute at Brown University.

. . . The report notes that after 9/11, wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria have grown to include more than 80 countries, making it “a truly global war on terror.”

And the longer the war on terror drags on, the more service members will lose their lives while others will ultimately claim benefits and disability payments.

“Even if the United States withdraws completely from the major war zones by the end of FY2020 and halts its other Global War on Terror operations, in the Philippines and Africa for example, the total budgetary burden of the post-9/11 wars will continue to rise as the U.S. pays the on-going costs of veterans’ care and for interest on borrowing to pay for the wars,” the study notes.

The Pentagon said in March that wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria have cost each U.S. taxpayer $7,623 through fiscal 2018.

“We’re a mess,” Blair said at a Reuters Newsmaker event. “The buoyancy of the world economy has kept us going up to now, but should that falter, we will be in deep trouble.” Blair, the only Labour leader to win three elections, said his party was now controlled by its “Marxist-Leninist wing” and that its leader Jeremy Corbyn was promising a revolution.

“The problem with revolutions is never how they begin but how they end,” said Blair. “The problem with revolutions is that they always end badly.” “The truth is: the public aren’t convinced either main party deserves to win this election outright.” The Dec. 12 vote presents a stark choice between a socialist-run state under Labour, which is offering a second referendum on leaving the EU, and the free-market Conservatives, who want to “get Brexit done” by the end of January.

Johnson has pledged to take Britain out of the EU by Jan. 31 if he wins a parliamentary majority and then to negotiate a comprehensive deal with the bloc covering trade and future relations during a transition period due to end next December. Blair cast doubt on that timetable and said there was still a risk that Britain could exit the EU in a year’s time without having struck a deal with its biggest trading partner. “No-deal Brexit is not off the table,” Blair said. “This negotiation (on the future relationship) has no chance of being concluded in that transition period.” Blair said he did not know whether Labour, which has tacked sharply to the left under Corbyn, would ever return to the center ground of British politics, but added: “We must set about the urgent task of reconstructing the sensible mainstream of British politics.”

British Sheikh Asrar Rashid said in a class that was uploaded to the Internet on August 3, 2019, that the LGBT movement is one of the signs of the end of days because it is a manifestation of people forgetting basic principles, like male-female relations. During the lecture, which took place against the backdrop of protests by the U.K.’s Muslim community against public school curricula that teach about same-sex relationships, Sheikh Rashid criticized the LGBT movement for having “concocted” over 70 different genders, and he said that Islam’s prohibition of homosexual acts is not tantamount to hatred of homosexuals. Sheikh Rashid said that children who are confronted with education about LGBT issues in schools should vocally question what they are taught and that such questions should not be “blotted out in classrooms or treated in an Orwellian fashion.” He said that the “Chinese-communist-Mao-Zedong-style brainwashing program” taught in schools should also teach children about the harms that can be caused by homosexual lifestyles in order to discourage such behaviors.

Sheikh Rashid said, for example, that the schools should teach that men who engage in homosexual acts sometimes have to use “male Tampax” diapers at night to prevent their bowels from leaking. He also said that children should be taught about STDs. Sheikh Asrar Rashid, who is based in the Birmingham area, was born in the U.K. in 1983 and has reportedly studied in Syria and India. The video, which was titled “The New Age of Jahiliyah,” was uploaded to the Ahl-us-Sunnah Wal Jama’ah YouTube channel. For more from Sheikh Asrar Rashid, see MEMRI TV Clip No. 6370. (MEMRI, 11/26)

From September next year, “relationships” are to be taught in British primary (elementary) schools, including same-sex relationships. This has led to protests outside schools. Most protestors appear to be Muslims. Muslim opposition to anything LGBTQ is leading to a clash between the two groups.

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GERMAN SCRAMBLE FOR AFRICA

With today’s Africa Conference in Berlin, the German government is seeking to induce German companies to make investments on the African continent. The conference is taking place within the framework of the “Compact with Africa” project, launched more than two years ago during the G20 Summit in Hamburg. Hailed as a breakthrough for Africa’s economic development at the time, the heralded expansion of investments has, so far, fallen short of expectations, according to experts. Berlin’s efforts must be seen in the context of the growing global competition for a share in the African market that is no longer limited to China. Whereas the People’s Republic of China is already Africa’s leading trading partner and is catching up on investments, India has also been expanding its activities on the continent and has surpassed Germany. Meanwhile, Russia has also succeeded in reinforcing its influence in Africa. Like the other western powers, Germany is steadily losing ground. (German Foreign Policy, 11/19/2019)

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The Militarization of the North Sea

Alongside the militarization of the Baltic Sea region, NATO is beginning to reestablish military structures around the English Channel and the North Sea. At the annual meeting within the framework of the NATO Channel Committee (CHANCOM) recently held in Hamburg, the five riparian states signed a declaration on the further enhancement of their naval cooperation. According to the German Navy, which participated at the meeting, the establishment of a regional NATO command for the North Sea region, analogous to the war alliance’s Baltic Maritime Component Command (BMCC) in Rostock, was also in discussion. The maritime route from the Atlantic through the English Channel to the Baltic Sea, via the North Sea is the main route for US troops coming to Europe. This is why the region has regained strategic importance, since NATO has intensified its confrontation against Russia. Civilian ports along the transatlantic route are also to be integrated, including Hamburg and Bremerhaven. (German Foreign Policy, 11/26/2019)

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TO THE POINT

The three conservative leaders of three prominent western democracies are all under intense pressure now. The US, UK and Israel are the three nations threatened. There is no such pressure upon liberal-socialist leaders. Is this just a coincidence?

“Following the 2016 coup attempt, (Turkey’s) Erdogan has purged scores of thousands from his army and regime, jailed more journalists than any other authoritarian, purchased Vladimir Putin’s S-400 missile system as Turkey’s air defense, and ordered the U.S. forces out of his way as he invaded northern Syria, killing Kurdish fighters who did the bleeding and dying in the U.S.-led campaign to crush the ISIS caliphate.” (Pat Buchanan, 11/22/2019)

Italian former prime minister and MEP Silvio Berlusconi said on Thursday that Europe needs to become a global military power “to have a seat at the table where decision are made” with America and China. “We also need military capacity to defend ourselves in case of a massive invasion phenomenon,” Berlusconi added, saying his party will return to government soon as the current Italian government is “unprepared, unqualified and inexperienced.” (EU Observer, 11/21)

A report on TV earlier this week highlighted the fact that Italy has a very low birthrate, with some communities seeing no babies for years. A proposed solution is immigrants from Africa. But if the Italian peninsular was full of Africans, would it still be Italy?

It has been suggested that Britain’s Prince Andrew should visit the US to be interviewed by the FBI. A month ago, an American woman was asked to return to the UK to stand trial for the death of a motorcyclist, something she admits. But she won’t return and claims diplomatic immunity, which she does not qualify for. The US cannot have it both ways. Perhaps Prince Andrew can be interviewed about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein on British soil?

“Corbyn refuses to say sorry” for anti-semitism in the Labor Party (headline in a British newspaper November 27th)

“A passionate cohort of campaigners, including former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and opposition leader Anthony Albanese have renewed their push for Australia to become an independent republic more than 20 years since the failed referendum.” (Sky News, 11/27/2019)

As with the referendum on Scottish independence, or Brexit, groups refuse to accept a “No” verdict and simply ask for a second referendum.

12 “The ten horns which you saw are ten kings who have received no kingdom as yet, but they receive authority for one hour as kings with the beast. 13 These are of one mind, and they will give their power and authority to the beast. 14 These will make war with the Lamb, and the Lamb will overcome them, for He is Lord of lords and King of kings; and those who are with Him are called, chosen, and faithful.” (Revelation 17:12-14)

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has criticized senior Eurocrat Guy Verhofstadt for praising the new “world order” of “empires,” but said it was time to be straight about Brussels’ intentions to build a new European Empire. The Brexit Party leader condemned the remarks of Verhofstadt, who said during the Liberal Democrat conference on Saturday: “The world order of tomorrow is not a world order based on nation-states, on countries — it’s a world order that is based on empires.” “The world of tomorrow is a world of empires, in which we Europeans, and you British, can only defend your interests, your way of life, by doing it together, in a European framework, and in European union,” he added. The Belgian politician, leader of the left-progressive Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe (ALDE) in the European Parliament, had called in May for the European Union to become an empire “capable of defending our interests,” but is not the first EU politician to do so. In 2007, former President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso had praised the EU “empire,” saying: “Sometimes I like to compare the EU as a creation to the organization of empire. We have the dimension of empire.”

Mr. Farage evoked the former Commission chief’s words while criticizing Verhofstadt on his LBC radio show on Monday, saying an EU empire “is where they are going.” “That is what they want because Barroso, one of the previous bosses of the European Commission, he said: ‘We’re building the first ever non-militaristic empire.’ “They’re building an empire. Why deny it?” Mr. Farage asked.

To go with this empire, the EU is also building its own military, after the majority of its member states signed the Permanent Structured Cooperation process, or PESCO, in November 2017, which is key to the European Defense Union plans set out by outgoing President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, who called for a “fully fledged” EU army by 2025.

And while Verhofstadt had called for an empire “capable of defending our interests,” French President Emmanuel Macron made the extraordinary claim in November 2018 that the bloc needs a “real European army” in order to “protect our interests.”

The French progressive politician’s call for a “real European army” was backed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Mr. Verhofstadt, and the most powerful of the Brussels bodies, the European Commission. Two month later, Germany’s then-defense minister Ursula von der Leyen said that “Europe’s army is already taking shape.”

Mr. Farage criticized Mrs. von der Leyen, now President-Elect of the European Commission, in July as a “fanatic for building a European army” and accused her of readying to lead a European Union that seeks to “take control of every single aspect of our lives.” “She wants to build a centralized, undemocratic, updated form of Communism where nation state parliaments will cease to have any relevance at all,” he warned. (Breibart, 9/17)

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GERMANY’S SEARCH FOR A NEW DIPLOMATIC MAP

Being in charge of German foreign policy is a tough assignment these days — not just in Warsaw but in countries around the world.

Over the past few years, Berlin has watched with growing despair as friends have turned into foes and old certainties have dissolved into doubt. A new breed of nationalist leader holds sway in capitals from Budapest and Warsaw to Rome and Washington, sounding a note of hostility and antagonism towards Berlin. For reasons both economic and political, Germany’s relationships with key powers such as China, Russia and Turkey are marked by growing tensions.

At the same time, the dense web of alliances that has characterized German foreign policy for decades — and that underpinned the country’s postwar success — is under strain as never before: NATO has descended into bitter recriminations over burden-sharing, leading many Germans to wonder how much longer the US will remain committed to the defense of Europe. The EU itself, meanwhile, is riven by splits between north and south and east and west, and exhausted from the never-ending struggle over Brexit. The UK no longer counts as a reliable ally, and the relationship with France is going through a phase of barely-concealed irritation. One by one, the fixed stars that have guided German foreign policy for generations have started to dim. (Tobias Buck, Financial Times, 23rd April)

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GERMAN “LUST FOR POWER”

The future EU Commission should play a “geopolitical” role and provide the Union with a leading position in global policy, confirmed Commission President Elect Ursula von der Leyen, whose team, according to observers, shows a newfound “lust for power.” Von der Leyen’s plans for the coming five years are very much in line with Berlin’s plans to position the Union as an independent global power between the USA and China. French President Emmanuel Macron shares this project and – in view of the escalating conflict between Washington and Beijing – cautions that, if it fails, all influence on global policy would be lost. Influential German business circles opine that a German-European intermediate position cannot be avoided. Otherwise they would lose business with China and suffer severe setbacks. According to transatlantic circles, however, sooner or later, Berlin and Brussels will not be able to avoid siding with Washington. (German Foreign Policy, 9/17)

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GERMAN SUPPORT FOR HK DEMO

Monday evening, activist Joshua Wong arrived in Berlin from Hong Kong for talks with German politicians, including Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. Wong represents an opposition party that calls for a referendum, including a vote on Hong Kong’s future secession from China. Just before his trip to Berlin, demonstrators rallied on Sunday in front of the US consulate in Hong Kong calling on US President Trump to intervene in their favor with the city authorities. Already since March, high-ranking members of Hong Kong’s opposition have repeatedly visited Washington for talks with US Vice President Mike Pence and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Berlin is now following suit and receiving leaders of the Hong Kong protests for talks with top government officials. Washington is preparing new legislation for sanctions providing for punitive measures against Chinese officials and putting Hong Kong’s special economic status into question. Billions in German business transactions are also at risk. (German Foreign Policy)

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With its professionally choreographed reception of Hong Kong activist Joshua Wong, Berlin is presenting itself to the international public as the Chinese opposition’s foreign hub. Wong was personally welcomed in Berlin by the Foreign Minister, and he demanded at the Federal Press Conference that action be taken against China. Germany has already granted asylum to two other dissidents from Hong Kong, who had been calling for the city’s secession from China and have been indicted for their participation in riots. For decades, Uighur separatist associations have had their foreign operational base in the Federal Republic of Germany, including one accused of participating in preparations of the pogrom-like riots, which claimed the lives of nearly 200 people. German politicians are supporting Tibetan separatists as well – seeing them as a point of leverage for weakening the People’s Republic of China. A Chinese writer, who called China a “pile of garbage,” was awarded the Peace Prize of the German Book Trade. (German Foreign Policy)

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FREEDOM OF SPEECH IN RETREAT

On June 22nd there was an alleged coup attempt in Ethiopia. The army chief of staff was murdered, as was the president of Amhara, one of the country’s nine regions. Ordinary Ethiopians were desperate to find out what was going on. And then the government shut down the internet. By midnight some 98% of Ethiopia was offline.

“People were getting distorted news and were getting very confused about what was happening . . . at that very moment there was no information at all,” recalls Gashaw Fentahun, a journalist at the Amhara Mass Media Agency, a state-owned outlet. He and his colleagues were trying to file a report. Rather than uploading audio and video files digitally, they had to send them to head office by plane, causing a huge delay.

Last year 25 governments imposed internet blackouts. Choking off connectivity infuriates people and kneecaps economies. Yet autocrats think it worthwhile, usually to stop information from circulating during a crisis.

This month the Indian government shut down the internet in disputed Kashmir – for the 51st time this year. “There is no news, nothing,” says Aadil Ganie, a Kashmiri stuck in Delhi, adding that he does not even know where his family is because phones are blocked, too. In recent months Sudan shut down social media to prevent protesters from organising; Congo’s regime switched off mobile networks so it could rig an election in the dark; and Chad nobbled social media to silence protests against the president’s plan to stay in power until 2033.

“Free speech is hard won and easily lost. Only a year ago it flowered in Ethiopia, under a supposedly liberal new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed. All the journalists in jail were released, and hundreds of websites, blogs and satellite TV channels were unblocked. But now the regime is having second thoughts. Without a dictatorship to suppress it, ethnic violence has flared. Bigots have incited ethnic cleansing on newly free social media. Nearly 3m Ethiopians have been driven from their homes.

Ethiopia faces a genuine emergency, and many Ethiopians think it reasonable for the government to silence those who advocate violence. But during the alleged coup it did far more than that – in effect it silenced everyone. As Befekadu Haile, a journalist and activist, put it: “In the darkness, the government told all the stories.” (The Economist, 8/17)

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CANADIAN THREAT TO FREEDOM OF SPEECH

In a three-pronged blow to freedom of speech, Canada’s Trudeau government in May signed the “Christchurch Call to Action” – a government-led drive for more censorship; then launched a “Digital Charter,” much of it dealing with “hate speech and disinformation;” and in June, the House of Commons Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights issued recommendations to the government for the fight against “online hatred,” increasing funding for law enforcement, crown attorneys and judges, and to “educate the population.” (Nina Rosenwald, Gatestone, 8/15)

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THE LOST ART OF AMERICAN DIPLOMACY

The neglect and distortion of American diplomacy is not a purely Trumpian invention. It has been an episodic feature of the United States’ approach to the world since the end of the Cold War. The Trump administration, however, has made the problem infinitely worse. There is never a good time for diplomatic malpractice, but the administration’s unilateral diplomatic disarmament is spectacularly mistimed, unfolding precisely at a moment when American diplomacy matters more than ever to American interests. The United States is no longer the only big kid on the geopolitical block, and no longer able get everything it wants on its own, or by force alone.

Although the era of singular U.S. dominance on the world stage is over, the United States still has a better hand to play than any of its rivals. The country has a window of opportunity to lock in its role as the world’s pivotal power, the one best placed to shape a changing international landscape before others shape it first. If the United States is to seize that opportunity and safeguard its interests and values, it will have to rebuild American diplomacy and make it the tool of first resort, backed up by economic and military leverage and the power of example. (William J. Burns, “The lost art of American diplomacy,” Foreign Policy, May-June issue)

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STRAIT OF HORMUZ – STILL WORLD’S MOST IMPORTANT SEA-GATE

The Strait of Hormuz links the majority of the world’s people who live along the shores of Asia and East Africa to the heart of the Middle East. Long before the discovery of oil, it was the world’s carotid artery. Cut off the blood supply almost anywhere else and the world would adapt. Here, however, an interruption could be fatal: 90 percent of oil exported from the Gulf, about 20 percent of the world’s supply, passes through Hormuz. Shipping through the strait, which is a mere 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, is concentrated and hazardous. In Musandam, the Omani exclave on the strait’s southern side, you can hear Persian radio from Iran as often as Arabic. Along the rocky shorelines, islets and peninsulas thrust precipitously into the sky. Heat, humidity, and a scorching wind make the climate inhospitable; many mountain ranges and valleys near Hormuz remain sparsely inhabited. (“Why the Strait if Hormuz is still the world’s most important chokepoint,” Allen James Fromherz, Foreign Affairs, 7/17)

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SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN HEADING FOR WAR

Less than 24 hours after a major attack by at least 10 drones or cruise missiles on key Saudi oil facilities, the rhetoric in the Middle East is heating up, and the region appears to be on the brink of conflict.

After US President Donald Trump spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said there was “no evidence” the large attack came from Yemen.

This now means that Saudi Arabia, which is investigating how the attack happened, is positioned to defend itself, but must choose wisely how.

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POPE APPOINTS LIBERAL CARDINALS

Pope Francis’ unexpected announcement this past Sunday that he would appoint 13 new cardinals to the College of Cardinals strengthens his grip on the Catholic Church and solidifies a liberal majority to select the next pope.

Since assuming the seat of St. Peter in 2013, Francis has been assiduously stacking the College of Cardinals with supporters, ones that will not only back his revisions to Church teachings, but choose his successor.

With his Sunday pronouncement, Francis will have picked 67 new members of the College of Cardinals, giving his backers a clear majority for the first time. Of the remaining members, 42 were selected by Benedict and 19 by John Paul II.

Francis’ new majority will also set a new tone, one in keeping with Francis’ desire that the Church move its focus away from tradition to one that is more active in secular politics, advocating such positions as socialist economic policies, environmental responsibility, immigrant rights, and diplomacy toward Islam.

On matters of doctrine, the Pope has sought to move the faith to one that accepts alternative lifestyles, including gays and lesbians, and eases restrictions of Catholics who have been divorced. (Newsmax, 9/14)

ROME, September 13, 2019 (LifeSiteNews) — In a renewed and enthusiastic endorsement of globalism, Pope Francis has announced he is hosting an initiative for a “Global Pact” to create a “new humanism.” The global event, set to take place at the Vatican on May 14, 2020, is themed Reinventing the Global Educational Alliance. According to a Vatican statement issued on Thursday, Sept. 12, the Pope is inviting representatives of the main religions, international organizations and various humanitarian institutions, as well as key figures from the world of politics, economics and academia, and prominent athletes, scientists and sociologists to sign a “Global Pact on Education” so as to “hand on to younger generations a united and fraternal common home.” “A global educational pact is needed to educate us in universal solidarity and a new humanism,” Francis said in a video message to launch the initiative. In a strikingly secular message containing only one throw-away reference to the Lord, Pope Francis called on people to “capitalize on our best energies” and to be “proactive” in “opening education to a long-term vision unfettered by the status quo.”

Referencing the “Document on Human Fraternity and World Peace for Living Together,” which he signed with the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar in Abu Dhabi last February, Francis explained that, in this new global village, “the ground must be cleared of discrimination and fraternity must be allowed to flourish.” The Abu Dhabi document aroused controversy for stating that the “diversity of religions” is “willed by God.” (https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/pope-francis-global-education-pact)

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AIM TO END CHINESE ROLE IN DARWIN

In 2015, the Northern Territory Government announced Chinese company Landbridge had been awarded a 99-year lease of Darwin port in a $500 million deal. Concerns over Beijing’s steady military build-up in the Indo-Pacific region have since prompted renewed concerns about the foreign ownership of Australia’s northern-most port.

At top-level talks in Sydney over the weekend, the Australian Government again joined the United States in expressing alarm over reports China is moving to establish a new military base in a Cambodian port.

Mr. Champion, who is the deputy chair of Federal Parliament’s Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee, believes the Commonwealth should now consider buying Darwin Port back.

“It’s a very important port because we have significant defence facilities in the Northern Territory and that’s the part of the world I guess we have to pay a great deal of attention to,” he said.

“We should look pretty clearly at making sure that that port is in government hands, and it’s for those reasons I think it should be nationalised.” (Andrew Greene, 8/4, ABC Australian Broadcasting Company)

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INTERNATIONAL PERSECUTION OF CHRISTIANS

“Christian persecution ‘at near genocide levels,'” the title of a May 3 BBC report, cites a lengthy interim study ordered by British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and led by Rev. Philip Mounstephen, the Bishop of Truro.

According to the BBC report, one in three people around the world suffer from religious persecution, with Christians being “the most persecuted religious group.” “Religion ‘is at risk of disappearing’ in some parts of the world,” it noted, and “in some regions, the level and nature of persecution is arguably coming close to meeting the international definition of genocide, according to that adopted by the UN.”

British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is also quoted on why Western governments have been “asleep” — his word — concerning this growing epidemic:

“I think there is a misplaced worry that it is somehow colonialist to talk about a religion [Christianity] that was associated with colonial powers rather than the countries that we marched into as colonisers. That has perhaps created an awkwardness in talking about this issue – the role of missionaries was always a controversial one and that has, I think, also led some people to shy away from this topic.”

Whatever the merits of such thinking, the fact is that many of the world’s most persecuted Christians have nothing whatsoever to do with colonialism or missionaries. Those most faced with the threat of genocide – including Syria’s and Iraq’s Assyrians or Egypt’s Copts – were Christian several centuries before the ancestors of Europe’s colonizers became Christian and went missionizing.

The BBC report highlights “political correctness” as being especially responsible for the West’s indifference, and quotes Hunt again in this regard: “What we have forgotten in that atmosphere of political correctness is actually the Christians that are being persecuted are some of the poorest people on the planet.” (“Genocide of Christians reaches ‘alarming stage,’” Gatestone)

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TO THE POINT

I’m amazed at the patience of the British people in waiting for Brexit. The majority voted for it over three years ago and it still hasn’t happened. Maybe they should learn a lesson from their former colony of Hong Kong. Massive demonstrations over the last three months got the HK government (and China) to back down on proposed legislation that would have given China greater control over the judicial process in the former colony.

It’s very interesting seeing the demonstrations in Hong Kong. The demonstrators have been singing “God save the Queen.” Clearly, being a colony wasn’t all bad.

A significant number of doctors and other medical personnel come from overseas, from countries much poorer than ours. We are, in effect, stealing doctors from poor countries, leaving them with inadequate medical attention. It’s time for a rethink.

‘Exit polls suggested that Israel’s general election was too close to call, with Binyamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party taking 30-33 of 120 parliamentary seats and the centrist Blue and White Party, led by Benny Gantz, with 32-34. That could make Avigdor Lieberman, a former defence minister, the kingmaker, with his far-right Yisrael Beitenu crucial to the formation of a coalition.’ (The Economist, 9/19)

Condoleeza Rice has called for the restoration of freedom of speech. Pointing out on CBS’s Face the Nation that half the people deny the other half the freedom to express themselves, she added that “as soon as the word ‘racist’ is used, that’s the end of the discussion.” It’s more sensible to let people have their say. Let everybody express themselves. We used to be proud of our tradition of freedom of speech – let’s return to it.

President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has finally died, age 95. As a Catholic, Mr Mugabe believes he is now in purgatory. This is highly appropriate because that’s exactly where he’s put the people of Zimbabwe!

President Trump’s visit to the United Kingdom was very successful and has given the British people a much needed boost in the midst of Brexit.

The British would probably have been ok even without the US, but Trump’s promise of a trade deal couldn’t have come at a better time. Mrs. May ceases to be prime minister at the end of the week, having failed in her bid to do a “deal” with Europe. (She will continue in a caretaker role until a new leader of the Conservative Party is chosen.)

Mr. Trump made the effort to talk to Boris Johnson and to meet with both Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove, the three most likely men to replace Mrs. May. He already knew the first two. He also spent some time with Nigel Farage, leader of the Brexit party. Mr. Trump is firmly on the side of Brexit, which will put a dent in the European Union, arguably America’s greatest trade rival.

Some voices were raised against Trump. PBS said the “streets were flooded” with demonstrators. 250,000 were expected; 75,000 turned up, according to organizers. Others felt the number was considerably less. Hardly a flood! An opinion poll found that 46% of the British people supported the visit; only 40% were against. Those numbers were a lot better than on his previous visit. People have seemingly become aware that he is in favor of a strong, individual nation state, and against globalization.

He was well received by the royal family, in spite of the revelation of a negative comment made by Meghan Markle prior to her marriage to Prince Harry.

Criticism from London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, continues but it did not influence anybody else. Mr. Khan, a Muslim, began his spat with Trump when the president introduced curbs on immigrants from Muslim countries. His negativity only strengthens how actor John Cleese described London a few days ago as a non-English city – it’s unlikely to be in step with the rest of the country from now on. Jeremy Corbyn was another critical voice. The leader of the Labor Party seems happy to meet with terrorist leaders but not with the US president.

President Trump extolled the virtues of the Anglo-American alliance, two nations that have been the greatest alliance in history. It took Robert Tuttle, a former US Ambassador to the UK on Sky TV, to add another three countries: “Canada, Australia and New Zealand.” The Australian prime minister sat behind the Queen and President for the celebrations commemorating D-Day. The Canadian prime minister was also present. All three countries contributed to the D-Day landings.

There are now two clearly defined ideas when it comes to the future of the western world. Angela Merkel gave the commencement speech at Harvard University. Her priority is still globalization. While Trump’s speeches in England were all about the nation state. Comments posted to websites talked about role reversal – that Merkel believes in freedom while Trump is for fascism. Such comments show people’s ignorance. Nationalism is a far cry from fascism. And fascism is more likely to come out of the EU than the US. Too many people on the left are too quick to label a conservative “fascist.”

CONSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGES

Other challenges lie ahead. Britain is in the midst of a constitutional crisis; the US seems headed for one.

Britain’s is all to do with Brexit. And the referendum on the subject was won three years ago by supporters of the country leaving the EU. Parliament will not support the British people’s vote and, instead, is split between those who support Brexit with a deal and those who wish to remain members of the EU. Those supporting Brexit with a deal are not facing reality as the EU will not give them a deal it could accept. The uncertainty has gone on for three years, eroding any respect for Britain that the EU might have had. If they upset the EU any more, they may find themselves kicked out of the organization.

On the anniversary of D-Day today, June 6th, the Daily Express Head of News, Paul Baldwin, mused on the anniversary of the landings: “It’s interesting and quite moving to think that 75 years ago today one of the biggest armadas ever assembled was about to set off and head for northern France and liberate Europe from the yoke of Nazism. And we’re now seeing 75 years later that Britain is, at best, tolerated by our European neighbors and at worst, possibly despised.” (Daily Express 6/6)

Not only is there uncertainty over Brexit. There is also uncertainty over who will replace Mrs. May as PM. The choice is most undemocratic.

“At some point in June or July roughly 124,000 people in Britain can expect to receive a ballot paper in the post. It will offer them the names of two Conservative MPs (members of parliament). The one they select will, shortly thereafter, enter 10 Downing Street as prime minister. The rest of Britain’s 66 million inhabitants will have no say whatsoever.” (“The Referendums and the damage done,” The Economist, 6/1).

The new leader will serve out the term of this government. Then he will have to stand for election with everyone else and may be defeated. More uncertainty.

The US has a constitutional crisis pending, as most Democrats want President Trump to be impeached, claiming his behavior warrants this. More likely, it’s because they know there is no prospect of winning the 2020 election and want to find some way to get rid of him so that a Democrat is more likely to win. In other words, it’s all politics.

But, the process of impeachment would damage the US considerably. Financial markets hate instability. Trump has been good for business; any attempt to remove him would likely have a negative effect on the economy.

So, both countries may have constitutional crises’ at the same time.

This would make ineffective the famed Anglo-American alliance, upon which the free world has been largely built.

Rashida Tlaib was kicked out of a Donald Trump event during the 2016 election. She wasn’t sorry then, and will likely remain a strong anti-Trump voice. (Bustle website, By Joseph D. Lyons, Aug 8 2018)

Rashida Tlaib became the first Muslim woman to enter Congress earlier this month. From Detroit, the lady has already succeeded in re-writing American history. She famously described the president using a particularly offensive expletive and made an untrue statement that has not been challenged by anyone. In talking about the use of the Koran in the swearing in, she said:

“I like that,” the Democrat told CNN. “I like that it’s kind of pushing against the stereotype that somehow we’re new to this country.”

Ahh, but Muslims are new to this country.

There’s no record of any before the US Civil War. If there were, no doubt there would be Muslims buried in Civil war cemeteries.

It is estimated that between 10-20% of African-American arrivals during the slave trade were Muslim, but they were forced to convert to Christianity upon arrival. They were also forced to accept Christian names.

So, when did Muslims arrive? From the 1880’s to 1914, many arrived in America as refugees from the Ottoman Empire.

In 1929 the country’s first ever mosque was built, in Chicago.

It was after 1965, the year that Senator Edward Kennedy introduced his Immigration Reform Bill, that Muslims started to arrive en masse. Additionally, a high birth rate contributed to rapid growth.

“In 2005, more people from Muslim-majority countries became legal permanent United States residents – nearly 96,000 – than there had been in any other year in the previous two decades. In 2009, more than 115,000 Muslims became legal residents of the United States.”(Wikipedia, Islam in America.)

So, the real growth in the numbers of Muslims, is fairly recent.

WAS JEFFERSON A MUSLIM?

Most Americans would have been surprised when she was sworn in as a US Congresswoman on Thomas Jefferson’s Koran. This news has been received with great enthusiasm by the anti-Christian media, ever desirous of distancing American history from its Christian roots.

Now, owning a Koran does not make you a Muslim. I have one in my library.

But, in the history of US-Muslim relations, Jefferson’s copy may have had more significance.

The Barbary pirates were America’s first major foreign policy challenge following independence. Four Muslim nations along the North African coast (Algiers, Tripoli, Tunis and Morocco) were seizing shipping and US sailors in the western Mediterranean. It is estimated that between 1 million and 1.25 million white slaves were being held by these slave-owning nations at this time. The only nations that escaped were those who paid a ransom to the Arab countries. The US did this for a while, giving a full 10% of its annual budget. Clearly, this could not go one.

Attacks on American shipping began in 1784 and continued for about twenty years.

“In March 1786, Thomas Jefferson and John Adams went to London to negotiate with Tripoli’s envoy, ambassador Sidi Haji Abdrahaman (or Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman Adja). When they enquired “concerning the ground of the pretensions to make war upon nations who had done them no injury,” the ambassador replied:

“It was written in their Koran, that all nations which had not acknowledged the Prophet were sinners, whom it was the right and duty of the faithful to plunder and enslave; and that every mussulman who was slain in this warfare was sure to go to paradise. He said, also, that the man who was the first to board a vessel had one slave over and above his share, and that when they sprang to the deck of an enemy’s ship, every sailor held a dagger in each hand and a third in his mouth; which usually struck such terror into the foe that they cried out for quarter at once.””

“Jefferson reported the conversation to Secretary of Foreign Affairs John Jay, who submitted the ambassador’s comments and offer to Congress. Jefferson argued that paying tribute would encourage more attacks. Although John Adams agreed with Jefferson, he believed that circumstances forced the U.S. to pay tribute until an adequate navy could be built. The U.S. had just fought an exhausting war, which put the nation deep in debt.” (“First Barbary War,” Wikipedia) (Note: the word”musselman” is an old term for Muslims.)

Although there is no official record of when Jefferson acquired his copy of the Koran, this seems the most likely. He was reading it to better inform himself on the actions of the Arab leaders America was threatened by. Such a course would be advisable today.

The turning point in the war was the Battle of Derma in 1805, when US and mercenary troops, captured the Tripolitan city of Derma. They were then able to use the conquered city as a bargaining chip for the release of US personnel and to impose a peace.

During this twenty-year period the US acted alone, as all the European countries were pre-occupied with fighting Napoleon.

If we do not read more American history, people like Rashida Tlaib will get the better of us, making exaggerated claims by Muslims.

Ms Tlaib should also be mindful of what the Bible says about Jesus Christ.

“Neither is there salvation in any other; for there is no other name under heaven given among men, whereby we must be saved” (Acts 4:12)

He can even help you clean up your language!

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ISLAMIC PARTY OF ONTARIO

In addition to the four main parties already contesting elections in Ontario, there is now an Islamic party.

“It operates with a mandate to introduce Islamic rule in Ontario and Canada because, according to the fledgling party, “We understand and believe that Islam is the native DEEN (religion) of Ontario and Canada.”

“The Islamic Party of Ontario is headed by one Jawed Anwar, who operates out of the Toronto neighborhood of Thorncliffe Park.” (Middle East Forum, Tarek Fatah, 1/1/19)

On December 2, 2018, Palestinian-American political activist Linda Sarsour spoke at the 2018 Salam Annual Banquet, held at the Salam Community Center in Sacramento, CA. She criticized President Trump for moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, saying: “I declare to all of you here today in Sacramento that Jerusalem is and always will be the capital of Palestine.” Calling the Trump administration fascist, she encouraged Muslims to become involved in politics even if their mosques usually avoid politics, because, she said, simply being Muslim is a political act. The Prophet Muhammad, she asserted, was a human rights activist, adding that there is no need for workers’ rights movements, environmental justice movements, or Black Lives Matter movements, or anti-racism or feminism, because Islam taught these values long before they were hashtags or movements. She added: “I don’t need people in the West, people in Europe, or people in the United States . . . to teach me what feminism is.” (MEMRI, No. 7878, January 9 2019)

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SAUDI JOURNALIST WRITES:

In his July 8, 2018 column in the Saudi daily Al-Jazirah, Muhammad Al-Sheikh slams Arab and African Muslim immigrants who choose to live in the West and even risk their lives to reach it, yet express hatred and contempt towards the West and regard it as infidel. He criticizes in particular the ingratitude of mosque imams in Europe, some of whom are immigrants themselves, who abuse the democracy and free speech in their host countries by inciting against the West. In light of this, says Aal Al-Sheikh, the European right’s opposition to immigration is justifiable, for it is only natural to oppose the influx of immigrants who are “steeped to the bone in a culture of hostility and hatred.” (MEMRI, 7840. 1/10/19)

THE GOVERNMENT has partially shut down. Again. No other advanced democracy has government shutdowns. In America they have become almost routine. This is the third since Donald Trump became president and by far the most damaging. The others were resolved quickly; this is already the second-longest on record. It is not happening because America is in turmoil: the country is not at war, unemployment is as low as it has ever been. It is happening because that is what the president wants.

What is playing out in Washington is the denouement of a political fight.

Mr. Trump was elected on a promise to build a wall on the southern border, though Mexico was supposed to pay for it. The new Democratic majority in the House is reluctant to give the president a victory on his best-known policy. The Senate majority leader, who might be able to end the standoff, is AWOL.

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Stretched Thin

In fact, living paycheck to paycheck – meaning there’s not a cash cushion to cover the bills if the income stops for awhile – is a common condition in America. In the 12th richest nation in the world by per capita GDP, nearly 8 in 10 U.S. workers live paycheck to paycheck, according to a 2017 study by CareerBuilder, a human capital management firm. And the trend crosses over income groups: more than half of minimum wage workers said they needed to hold down two jobs to make ends meet, while one in 10 workers earning $100,000 or more yearly say they live paycheck to paycheck.

And if there’s an emergency? A large number of Americans don’t have an accessible stash of money to cover a substantial health care expense or car repair, studies show. The Federal Reserve Board in 2017 found that 44 percent of American households surveyed could not cover a $400 emergency expense. A separate BankRate study last year yielded similar results, finding that while 34 percent of those surveyed had experienced a major unexpected expense in the previous year, just 39 percent of those surveyed said they could tap $1,000 from savings to cover it. (“Stretched Thin,” US News, Susan Milligan, 1/11/19)

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FROM THE EURO TO BREXIT

The Euro is twenty years old this month. The Telegraph’s finance writer, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote an article commemorating the anniversary. Here’s an excerpt.

“While EU leaders quibbled over decimal points and debt repayment in Brussels, youth jobless rates reached 57pc in Greece, 56pc in Spain, and much the same across Italy’s Mezzogiorno. These were levels once unthinkable in a modern developed democracy. They have left a wreckage of ‘labour hysteresis’ that will lower economic speed limits for a generation to come.

“Several hundred thousand economic refugees came to work in Britain from the EMU depression belt. A further wave from Eastern Europe came to the UK instead of going to the eurozone as they would have done in normal times. The double surge had maximum impact just before the Referendum.

“More subtly, the euro crisis revealed that the pathologies of monetary union cannot be managed by normal democratic means. The elected prime ministers of Greece and Italy were toppled in 2010 and 2011 and replaced by EU functionaries in soft coups organized by Brussels and the pro-EMU vested interests of each country.

“The ECB switched off liquidity support for Greek commercial banks in 2015, knowingly (and illegally?) precipitating a banking collapse that was hard to reconcile with the ECB’s treaty duty to uphold financial stability. When push come to shove, the reflex was authoritarian. It spoke to the character of the EU. That I why I voted for Brexit.”

Both showed that voters wanted significant change. Both are considered populist. Two years later, Britain and America, once the most stable nations in the world, are now in turmoil. Their friends and allies are in confusion.

Mrs. May’s Conservative government could fall at any time. She survived this week and things are likely to quiet down with the summer recess, but with only a few months until the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, there’s going to be more turmoil ahead.

There is little reporting on Brexit in the United States. Americans don’t realize how important it is. The best analogy is this: California has voted to leave the United States, effective March 29th 2019. The vote was over two years ago, but there’s still no agreement on trade between California and the other 49 states and time is running out. What about passports? Residence rights – can Californians remain in the other states after 3/29? Can people from Michigan remain in California if they own a home and work there?

It’s almost unthinkable. So is Brexit, except that it’s less than fifty years since the UK was a fully independent country outside of the EU (then the EEC, the European Economic Community).

It gets more complicated.

BREXIT VOTE

The referendum of June 2016 was a free vote. Many Conservative MPs (Members of Parliament) voted to “Leave,” but many voted to “Remain.” Members of the other political parties mostly voted to “Remain” in the EU.

73% of all MP’s support continued membership of the EU, including 56% of Conservatives. But they are bound by the referendum result when 51.9% of the electorate voted to Leave, 48.1% Remain. Voter turnout was 72.21%, meaning that just over one third of British voters wanted to stay in the EU. Parliament is clearly not in step with the people. British democracy is at risk here.

David Cameron, the Prime Minister who presided over the vote, resigned. He voted to “Remain;” as did Theresa May, his successor, who is now trying to deliver Brexit. Although she is committed to honoring the will of the people and intends for Britain to leave Europe, she is clearly “hugging the coast” and wants as close a relationship as possible. She made things more difficult for herself last year when she called for a General Election, resulting in a minority government, which is propped up by a party from Northern Ireland.

On Friday, 6th July, the Cabinet met at the Prime Minister’s country home of Chequers to discuss the way forward. They drew up plans for further negotiations with the EU. Since then, a number of party leaders have resigned, including the Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, and the chief Brexit negotiator, David Davis. Both men accused Mrs. May of wanting a compromise. Mrs May has had twelve frontbenchers resign since the election last year.

Visiting US President Donald Trump was in the UK a week later and got involved by stating that if the UK does not break away from Europe completely, the US may not be able to give the country a trade deal. If Britain were bound in some way to EU trade regulations, it would complicate a trade deal with America. Mr. Trump also said that he thought that Mr. Johnson, a close personal friend, would make a great prime minister.

Boris Johnson gave a Churchillian speech in parliament on Wednesday on why he resigned, criticizing Mrs. May and claiming that Brexit can be saved. Mr. Johnson has made a point of saying that the British have lost the confidence needed to go it alone. He claims that May’s proposals would lead to Britain becoming a “colony” of the German led EU. A poll yesterday by “Westmonster” showed that, given a choice between Johnson or May, 93% of voters would support Mr. Johnson. (“Westmonster” is similar to Breitbart.)

It’s reminiscent of the late 1930’s, with a weak, compromising Prime Minister (Chamberlain / May) and one voice defying Europe (Winston Churchill/ Boris Johnson). Churchill is Mr. Johnson’s hero – he wrote a book on him a few years ago: “The Churchill Factor: How one man made history.” He may yet succeed May and lead Britain to a full Brexit.

US PRESIDENT TURNING THE WORLD UPSIDE DOWN

Mr. Trump was criticized for getting involved in British domestic affairs. In an interview after his visit to the UK, he was asked who is America’s biggest “foe.” He replied that the EU is the biggest foe of the US at this time.

This followed his attendance in Brussels at the NATO conference, at which he threatened to pull America out of NATO if European countries do not contribute more to the military organization.

Not all EU countries are members of NATO. The EU is a major trading organization, whereas NATO is a military alliance. Within the space of a few days, Mr. Trump criticized the two organizations that have been pillars of the Western Alliance for many decades. An immediate consequence was the EU signing a trade agreement with Japan. The EU is already China’s largest trading partner, and China is the EU’s second largest trade partner after the US. The EU, China and Japan are busy building closer ties as the US turns away.

Mr. Trump ended his European trip with a visit to Helsinki to meet with Russia’s President Putin. This was the most shocking meeting of all with the US president seeming to support Mr. Putin against his own intelligence services, Putin denying that Russia interfered in the US election. Mr. Trump has backtracked on his claim, now supporting his intelligence services; but has followed all this by inviting Putin to Washington in the autumn.

It’s no exaggeration to say that the President of the United States, in just a few days, turned the world upside down.

The late Secretary of State, Dean Acheson, wrote a memoir of his years in the diplomatic service after World War II when America built the present world order. He gave the book the title: “Present at the Creation”, published in 1969. It would be appropriate now for somebody involved in current events, to write a sequel: “Present at the Destruction.”

The seventy-year global world order put together mostly by America and Britain is ending. It may take a year or two to see clearly what will replace it.

The second round of the French presidential election takes place on Sunday. Polls (!) show that the centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron, is leading with 62% of the vote. Madame Marine LePen, of the National Front, is not doing so well. Reports say that she is already looking to what is often called “the third round of the presidential election,” voting for the Legislative Assembly, in June. She has the potential to lead the opposition to Macron, who has no party support. A future crisis (financial or terrorism), could lead to a major upheaval that would be to her benefit.

Mrs. LePen’s support comes mainly from rural areas and France’s rust-belt; Mr. Macron has all but 5% of the vote in Paris and the more affluent regions of the country.

The French political system, with three elections in just a few weeks, is rather complicated and, certainly this time, quite suspenseful. For the first time since the birth of the Fifth Republic in 1958, the major parties are not involved in this second round – their candidates did not garner the necessary support.

It’s not just the political system that is different in France. Mr. Macron, married to his former school-teacher, 25 years older than himself, laughed off an accusation that he has had a gay relationship with a prominent radio personality; but now is issuing frequent denials about an overseas bank account!

In a heated televised debate on Wednesday evening, Madame LePen made the best prediction of the evening. She said that seven days from now, France will have a female leader – either her or Angela Merkel, Germany’s Chancellor. Mr. Macron is a committed European, whereas she would like the French people to have a Brexit style referendum on the country’s future membership. Under pressure, M. Macron is talking about the need for Europe wide reforms, but he would keep France in both the EU and the single currency, the euro.

A victory for Emmanuel Macron would mean the 27 remaining members of the EU will stand together against the United Kingdom in the Brexit negotiations. A win for Mrs. LePen would actually help London, though no politician in the UK is going to say anything to that effect!

So Sunday’s second round is not just about France, but Europe. We should know the outcome sometime Sunday evening, Eastern time.

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MORE MIGRANTS COMING

Turkey appears determined to flood Europe with migrants either way: with Europe’s permission by means of visa-free travel, or without Europe’s permission, as retribution for failing to provide visa-free travel.

The migrants arriving in Italy are overwhelmingly economic migrants seeking a better life in Europe. Only a very small number appear to be legitimate asylum seekers or refugees fleeing war zones.

The director of the UN office in Geneva, Michael Møller, has warned that Europe must prepare for the arrival of millions more migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East. (Gatestone Institute, 5/5/17).

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DIVORCE EUROPEAN STYLE

Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister who negotiated with the EU during the financial crisis a few years ago, is warning the United Kingdom NOT to negotiate with the bureaucratic nightmare known as the European Union. In effect, Mr. Varoufakis was saying that nobody wins against the undemocratic EU.

Wolfgang Munchau, a German contributor to the London-based Financial Times, is also warning the Brits that they cannot win against Brussels.

The alternative for the UK is simply to leave and face the consequences, what is called a “hard Brexit.” There are plenty of other countries wanting trade agreements with the UK, so there’s definitely a case for this. But the British government is hoping for a trade deal with the EU post-Brexit. They have also re-committed themselves to closer military ties, reaffirming their commitment to Europe.

A hard Brexit could be a better choice. It would certainly be quicker as Brexit talks will last two years – and that time frame only covers the actual exit, not talks on a new trade pact.

It’s like a divorce – after over 40 years together, the UK and the EU are now talking to divorce lawyers about a divorce settlement. As with a divorce, the only people who will benefit are the lawyers. And, as any divorced people know, divorce never ends – the animosity (and the financial costs) just go on and on.

Footnote: Mr. Varoufakis, who cannot vote in France, has called on people to support M. Macron, in spite of the way he and his country were treated by the EU!

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PRINCE PHILIP TO RETIRE AT 96

Britain’s Prince Philip is retiring after seventy years of public service. His wife, Queen Elizabeth II, will continue with royal duties, but will no longer be accompanied by her husband.

Shortly after the announcement, the prince was at a function when an older man came up to him and expressed his sorrow that the prince was “standing down” from his responsibilities; the prince consort quipped back that his problem was not standing down, but rather standing up!

In his seventy years of public service, Prince Philip has attended over 25,000 public engagements and made over 600 overseas trips representing the United Kingdom.

He will end his official duties in August, by which time he will be 96 but will still take on a few as he feels up to it.. The Queen turned 91 two weeks ago. It is expected that Princes Charles, William and Harry will take on some of Philip’s commitments.

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INTERESTING QUOTE

( I cannot independently verify the following, but thought that some readers would find it interesting. It’s from a magazine called “Truth in History,” which comes out of Oklahoma.)

“…Bob travels to London quite often on business and from time to time has dinner with a very close friend of his, which is Queen Elizabeth’s personal secretary. Bob told me that he asked his friend when the Queen was going to turn the throne over to Charles. He replied, “she does not intend to ever give the scepter to Charles – possibly to William, but her desire is to present her crown, throne and scepter to the Lord Jesus Christ when He returns, whose rightful throne it is. This is her desire.”

Anyone who has read “The Servant Queen and the King She Serves,” published a little over a year ago, will know that the queen is a very religious woman.

“This tribute focuses on the Queen’s own words to draw out the central role of her trust in Jesus Christ in shaping her life and work, offering us an inspiring multi-faceted insight into a life well lived for others.” (Backcover, Google Books)

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DEATH OF OBAMACARE

I have mixed thoughts about the vote yesterday to abolish Obamacare. The ACA went into effect on April 1st, 2014. Before you marvel at my memory, I should add that I ended up in the hospital on April 2nd and spent over four months fighting for my life. I had one of those deadly infections that’s killing people all over the world. I needed two major back surgeries and then fought nausea and vomiting while working my way through all the medications. They gave up on me twice.

During this time period I was in two different hospitals. The bill from the second one was a million dollars; from the first, it was roughly half that.

Obamacare covered almost all my bills.

If it had not been in place, I would have died. If I had gotten sick a month earlier, before it came into effect, I would have, likewise, died.

Having said that, I’ve also seen the negative side of Obamacare, of people having to spend a significant part of their income to get coverage, of a bureaucracy that has often failed beneficiaries, of a system that is too expensive to be maintained.

I do believe that the Republicans have made a mistake – they should have come up with another system first, before abolishing what the country already had.

I’ve been in the United States for 27 years, since 1990. Health care (and how to pay for it) has been at the center of American politics during that time. Whereas other, less affluent countries, have been able to put a workable system in place in months, the richest country in the world still cannot find a solution to the problem of healthcare.

Apparently, President Trump, who is in New York to meet with Australia’s Prime Minister Turnbull, made a favorable comment to the visiting prime minister about their country’s healthcare system. It’s a single payer system, so the president’s comment is of particular interest.

A possible solution lies in each state working out it’s own system,

But it’s embarrassing that, after decades of talking about it, Washington still has not come up with a sustainable medical system. Perhaps America could start by looking at the medical systems in Australia, the UK and Canada, our next-door neighbor. France, too, which the WHO claims has the best system in the world. You would think that one of our TV news programs would take a look at one or two of these other countries.

I might add that if a Conservative government in the UK, the closest equivalent to a Republican administration, abolished the medical system, they would not make it back into power for decades. The same goes for the French, Canadian and Australian conservatives.

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FAVORITE SCRIPTURE

John Wycliffe (1320-84) was a major figure in what became the Protestant Reformation.

“John Wycliffe was an English scholastic philosopher, theologian, Biblical translator, reformer, and seminary professor at Oxford. He was an influential dissident within the Roman Catholic priesthood during the 14th century.” (Wikipedia)

His favorite scripture was Philippians 2:12 – “work out your own salvation with fear and trembling.” This was heresy to the Roman Church, which dominated the country at the time. Later, the Church had Wycliffe condemned as a “heretic.” It didn’t bother him – he was already dead and buried. But his bones were exhumed and burnt.

He did not just influence religion. He also had a profound political effect. Not long after the birth of the modern parliament in 1265, Wycliffe encouraged people to think for themselves, thereby encouraging democracy, an idea the church did not like at all.

The freedom to think for ourselves is seriously threatened today by universities that won’t allow conservative speakers to address students, citing security concerns. This is unlikely to be a temporary phenomenon.

Sadly, few remember Wycliffe today. When I visited Lincoln Cathedral in England some years ago, I asked after the man who served there for some years in the 14th century. A senior member of the cathedral’s clergy had never heard of him! I did find a very thin book on him in the bookstore, which I bought.

John Wycliffe (pronounced WICKCliff) is one of the greatest men in our common history, who made a big difference both religiously and politically.