Saturday, April 28, 2012

We finish the Sprint Season with the Regression to the Mean playoffs, where the NBA grinds the joy out of things with their best of seven, lesser teams rarely if ever win elimination series, and I have to tell you folks... there's really even less than usual riding behind these. I'm exhausted and can't imagine the teams are any better, but it's time to put that all aside for 40-odd days of hoop. So let's all just sack up and pick, OK?

Philadelphia(8) at Chicago (1) - Chicago in five

The Sixers actually match up a little with this Bulls' team, who might be vulnerable with Derrick Rose having an injury hell year, Carlos Boozer too preoccupied with his spray on hair, and Rip Hamilton being older than dirt. Too bad the Sixers shot their load in the first 30 games, and have been a borderline lottery team ever since. These games will be close until Chicago throttles the life out of the Sixer offense, which is to say, a little more each game, and a little sooner each one, too.

New York (7) at Miami (2) - Miami in five

Foolish people are going to talk themselves into the Knicks here, who have one stud to Miami's three, and who have a deep bench of guys that can only play offense or defense. Look for Carmelo Anthony to play out of his mind and get no help, and for him to end the series with that practiced pout that he used to show in Denver during their first round exits.

Orlando (6) at Indiana (3) - Indiana in six

Indiana is basically Chicago Lite -- a defensive minded young team with intensity, but lacking options in crunch time. They'll get a nothing to lose Magic club without Dwight Howard that could easily bomb enough threes to make things scary, but eventually, the Magic will need to do more than win the game when the shots are falling early. Cinderella does usually go home.

Boston (4) at Atlanta (5) - Boston in six

Oh, as if the undead Celtics will ever lose a series that they aren't overwhelmed in. Atlanta Fan doesn't go to the games, either, which means the hone-court edge isn't all that meaningful, either. A shame that since Howard's hurt, this one will wind up missing the NBA.TV ghetto.

Utah (8) at San Antonio (1) - San Antonio in seven

The Spurs come in on a roll, and this Jazz team doesn't seem all tht scary, with a 3-1 record that might have been 4-0 had they actually needed the April 9 game, too. But Utah is a tough place to play with the fans and altitude, and the Spurs strike me as having too many rotation guys unsettled to just be good without stress in the playoffs. They'll win, but not without drama.

Dallas (7) at Oklahoma City (2) - OKC in five

The Thunder were 3-1 against the defending champions this year, have an overwhelmingly great home court, and employ the best young talent in the Association. Against a Dallas team that's going to remember this year more for Lamar Odom than anything actually basketball related, it will be more than enough.

Denver (6) at Los Angeles Lakers (3) - Denver in six

My lone upset pick of note comes in Denver, where the Nuggets have a great home court, comes in waves, catch a Laker team that's missing Metta World Peace, and can do the one thing that makes the Lakers look bad in a hurry -- exploit the point guard match up, both in the starter and reserve roles. Besides, Mke Brown under playoff pressure with guys that will rebel at his Ground and Rebound scheme will fold against the more experience playoff buffonery of George Karl.

Los Angeles Clippers (5) at Memphis (4) - Clippers in seven

The best first round series will, in time, be won by Chris Paul, who has certainly done more with less than he has here in Clipper Land. Memphis does it the right way, with coaching and hustle and ball movement, and Marc Gasol is a tower of efficient basketball big man goodness. But stars win series, and Paul is just better than anything Memphis brings to the table.

Your own picks are, of course, welcome in the comments. Show me how much smarter you are...

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