The HLHB System Version 2.0 – Backtesting Updates

Hi guys! Just as I promised, I found a bit of time earlier this week to get some backtesting done on HLHB system version 2. I’m not completely done backtesting all the data from late 2008, but so far, the results aren’t looking too good.

I’ve been sort of caught up with other things the past couple of days. Some of you may be interested (maybe even delighted?) to know that I’ve decided to go for the assistant manager opening in the coffee shop where I work. Yesterday, I took a look at my resume, and it clearly needs a bit of work and updating… just like HLHB system version 2! The results haven’t been as impressive as I thought they would be.

But as I’ve said, I haven’t finished backtesting yet, so nothing’s final as of this moment. I’ll probably be able to wrap up the backtesting next week. If the stats aren’t up to par, I may need to tweak my system some more. I hope I can count on you guys to throw a few comments and suggestions my way if and when I decide to make adjustments! Pretty please??

Anyway, did you guys make any pips from all the chaos in Egypt? That was simply crazy! Who would’ve thought that a single man could inspire such bad vibes? Then again maybe the citizens are just miffed because they can’t tweet or play Farmville anymore…

Just when risk appetite in markets started gaining momentum on speculations that protests in Egypt will end, a sudden burst of riots soon sparked risk aversion back and took its toll on the high-yielding currencies except the oil-related Loonie. This boosted the euro and pound for a while, because markets thought that rising commodity prices would make the ECB and BOE raise interest rates sooner than they planned.

And boy were they wrong! ECB President Trichet put a stopper on rate hike speculations last Thursday, which sent the euro reeling down the charts. Meanwhile, all eyes are now on the NFP report as markets gauge the speed of the recovery of employment conditions in the U.S.

Now let me wrap up my blog with an update on my USD/JPY trade:

As of this writing, the pair is below my entry price as it seems like resistance at the 82.00 psychological handle was too much for the bulls to handle. Yikes! But I think I’ll keep my trade open for the NFP report.

I feel that there’s a good chance that we’ll see a better-than-expected figure. Because aside from the positive leading indicators that Forex Gump enumerated in his blog, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI and unemployment claims reports yesterday also overshot expectations.

Maybe a stellar NFP figure could convince the Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to ease up a little bit on his usual oh-so pessimistic tone when he talks about the economy on Tuesday next week too. If he does, maybe I can short GBP/USD which looks like it’s testing resistance at the falling trend line and could form a double top on the daily time frame.

That’s just an idea though. I will have to read up on the upcoming BOE MPC statement which could rock the pound’s socks.

Anyway, that’s all I have for you this week. I’ve got an early shift in the coffee shop today but please keep your comments coming! I’ll be sure to check them out. Skadoosh!

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About Hucklekiwi Pip

“Huck loves her bucks!” I always say. The problem, of course, is how to make those bucks!! I'll be posting my adventures as I traverse the forex world, while trying to catch some pips along the way. To do this, I will make use of classical charting methods as well as develop my own mechanical system. Not only will I talk about FX, but I'll also share how my day went along with any currency trade updates. Hopefully, by the end of this tale, I'll be able to achieve my goal of becoming a consistently profitable foreign exchange trader.

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