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Rays rotation stocked full of rebound candidates

Don't count out the Tampa Bay Rays just yet. Yes, the Rays have the worst record in the majors, but there are reasons to be optimistic. The core of their starting rotation has "rebound" written all over it.

Price is currently striking out more than 10 batters and walking less than one per nine innings. His swinging striking rate is up to 11%. All are career bests.

His ERA has been inflated by a high .350 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), a low 70% strand rate and a 13% home run-to-fly ball ratio. All should improve.

Based solely on his underlying skills, Price's expected ERA (xERA) is a much more representative 2.98. Over his past three starts, he's posted a 2.42 ERA with 27 strikeouts against only two walks, so the rebound looks like it has already begun.

Alex Cobb is currently 1-4 with a 4.39 ERA. This is a major step back coming off an 11-3, 2.76 ERA performance in 2013. Here, too, the underlying skills tell a different story.

While his 7.5 K/9 rate is slightly off from last year, his 2.4 BB/9 rate, 3.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 11% swinging strike rate are all career bests.

Cobb's 65% strand rate points to further improvement as well. His xERA is 3.48.

Jake Odorizzi has room for significant improvement from his current 2-6 record and 5.31 ERA.

Both his 11.1 K/9 rate and 10% swinging strike rate are career highs and continue an upward trend. His ERA has been done in by a .390 BABIP and 65% strand rate. His xERA is more than a run-and-a-half better, at 3.63.

Had Price, Cobb and Odorizzi performed according to their underlying skills, and had their random volatility been neutralized, they would have potentially allowed 26 fewer runs. That would have improved the Rays' team ERA from 4.15 to 3.76, raising their rank from 22nd to 14th.

Now add in a better back-end to their bullpen. While we expected more from closer Grant Balfour, his removal from the role opens the door to higher-skilled relievers, such as Jake McGee, Joel Peralta, Brad Boxberger and Juan Oviedo. That further improves the bottom line.

It's a start. Now we have to get to work on their offense.

Ron Shandler is the founder of BaseballHQ.com and the proprietor of ShandlerPark.com's monthly fantasy league games.