This whimsical contribution is a grassroots
effort from several SF birders. Join the fun and let me
know your predictions for the next five birds to be added to
the SF City List.
For a consenus of the "experts" opinions, see Luke's
summary at the end.

Luke Cole
I like this thread, as it takes us beyond the quotidian to the
fantasy
realm. My five new species, and honorable mentions, would be:

1. Emperor Goose. As of 1997, there
were 57 accepted records of
EMGO, from Del Norte down through Marin, Monterey and SLO counties,
as well
as Solano and Alameda. Although we don't have much habitat, I
could easily
see one sitting out on the Cliff House rocks or hanging at Sutro
Baths.

2. South Polar Skua. Dan M thought
he had one in 1998, a "coulda
been." This is not an uncommon bird offshore (I've had up
to 15 in a day in
Marin/SF/Sonoma waters), and we should see it soon from land.
Again, the
Cliff House is not a bad place to look.

3. Gray Catbird. I agree with Hugh
et al. that this one should
show up. East Wash? 69 accepted records in CA as of 1997, with
more than
10% being from the Farallones, as well as multiple Marin records
and also
records from Monterey, Sonoma and Santa Cruz.

4. Scarlet Tanager. I agree with Paul
that this should show up.
Golden Gate Park, or even Paul's beloved Mt. Davidson, would
be my bet for
this bird. 89 accepted records in CA as of 1997, including multiple
records
from Marin and SEFI, as well as singles from Alameda and Santa
Clara.

5. Little Gull. I'm with Dan S on this
one. 59 accepted records
through 1997, including multiple records for Humboldt, Alameda,
and
Monterey, and records for almost all coastal counties in our
area, including
Marin, Santa Clara, San Mateo, and Santa Cruz.

Luke's Honorable Mention list:

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher. 94 records as of 1997, including SEFI
and all coastal counties EXCEPT SF City between San Mateo and
Humboldt.
East Wash, anyone?

King Eider.
Multiple records from Humboldt, Marin, Sonoma, San
Mateo, Contra Costa, and even Alameda. Sooner or later, this
bird will be
found here.

Nelson's Sharp-tailed Sparrow. Records from Alameda, Santa Clara;
not much habitat here but if Heron's Head gets a good salicornia
marsh we
could be in business.

Mark pointed out four reasons for new birds:
- Better coverage
- Better skill
- New wetlands
- Dumb luck
Alan mentioned range expansion as another factor. I would offer
weather,
both short term and long term, as a further influence on what
could show up.
Short-term, a big storm could bring in interesting pelagic species
such as
pterodromas, storm-petrels, albatross sp., etc. Long-term, global
warming
will cause range expansion of southern species such as Black
Skimmer
(already in the Bay!) and Royal Tern, as well as some passerines.

Mark
Eaton
There aren't a whole lot of birding spots left to be discovered
in the
city since most of SF is already paved over. The notable exceptions
to this are the Crissy Wetlands and Heron's Head Park. So, the
question is what will cause a new city bird? Options include:

- Better coverage
- Better skill
- New wetlands
- Dumb luck

In the better coverage area, things were pretty
well covered during
the big year in '98 and seem to be pretty well-covered this year,
so
I'm not sure what we might expect here with the exceptions of
seabirds.

In the better skill area, certainly seabirds
fall into this, but
identification of passerines with distinctive flight calls fall
into
this category. Another variant of the better skill is knowing
exactly
the weather patterns that are good for vagrants.

The new wetlands (mostly Crissy) will provide
at least one of the next
five birds in SF. Don't forget gulls, terns

Finally, there's not a lot to say about dumb
luck. Clearly,
incredible birds show up not more than twenty miles away on the
Farallons; eventually, one of them is going to get here. The
only
question is whether they get here sooner or later.

Dan SingerI thought this would be a fairly simple exercise
until I started reviewing the list. It is very hard to narrow
it down to five, so I'll offer five more for consideration that
haven't been mentioned this go-around:Flesh-footed Shearwater
Black-headed Gull
Bay-breasted Warbler
Connecticut Warbler
Dickcissel

Consensus (courtesy
of Luke Cole)
So, what does it all mean? Well, in this month of polls and votes,
the
beauty contest winners are as follows...

(the "honorable mention" lists are
included as "Luke II," "Mark II," etc.)