Nebraska's rough-and-tumble primary

Heading into the midterms with a real chance of taking back the Senate, Republicans were hoping that Thom Tillis’ decisive victory in North Carolina last week would kill, or at least pause, the narrative of a GOP civil war.

But the next primary on the calendar signals anything but party unity.

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Welcome to Nebraska, where the Republican primary has been devoid of Midwestern niceties.

There are no clear ideological differences between the candidates, and the “establishment” and “tea party” labels associated with the candidates are fuzzy. And despite the fact that it’s a safe Republican seat — or perhaps because there’s no risk of the party squandering the race in the general election — powerful conservative players have poured millions into Tuesday’s contest to fill retiring Sen. Mike Johanns’ seat, putting the ugly battles within the party on display once again.

But the back-and-forth mudslinging between outside groups supporting former Bush administration official Ben Sasse and former State Treasurer Shane Osborn’s campaign has taken a toll on voters in the state — where several consultants say negative advertising is especially risky — and is believed to have dramatically changed the landscape of the race days before the primary.

Sasse appears to have surged ahead. Meanwhile, Omaha banker Sid Dinsdale — once considered a distant third to the presumed front-runners — has picked up significant momentum recently. In the final days before the primary, he has suddenly become the new target of attacks from Sasse-supporting outside groups, which are trying to avoid a repeat of the 2012 primary in Nebraska, when now-Sen. Deb Fischer pulled off an upset after the two well-funded front-runners destroyed each other on the airwaves.

Some Cornhusker State veterans think the attack ads could backfire.

“People are sick of outside groups, they’re sick of the negative ads, they’re sick of the attacks, they’re just sick of the whole thing,” Johanns, who has won three statewide elections, told the Washington Examiner in a recent interview.

“Nebraska voters are figuring this out. I just think they’re enormously discerning; they realize who’s been running the negative ads and that’s why I think Dinsdale is surging. He’s had clean hands in all of this,” Johanns added.

“Nebraskans are kind of the pawn here,” said Phil Young, a Nebraska-based political consultant working for Bart McLeay, considered the fourth and minor candidate in the race. “The big guys in D.C. are trying to play in our sandbox. But Nebraskans have a real independent streak. They like to make their own decisions. We saw that with Deb Fischer.”

“They don’t want somebody who is owned by Mitch McConnell, but they also don’t want anybody who is owned by Ted Cruz or Mike Lee,” said Young.

McConnell allies have quietly been backing Osborn after the Senate minority leader had a highly publicized blowup with Sasse last fall. A super PAC with ties to McConnell has put in more than $100,000 — a fraction of the amount outside groups have spent against Osborn — targeting Sasse.

But Osborn doesn’t fit the mold of an establishment pick, and Sasse is hardly the typical tea party choice.

Osborn has been endorsed by several local tea party groups, including the Nebraska Republican Liberty Caucus, Nebraska Taxpayers for Freedom, Western Nebraska Taxpayers Association and Omaha Liberty Ladies. And Sasse, who worked in D.C. for several years, has the backing of national conservative groups and figures including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Ted Cruz.