Trouble in store

With the backing of the most senior members of his cabinet, it appears Brown's position is safe. But there are a number of potential flashpoints in the next six months which could reignite talk of a leadership challenge.

June 2

First meeting of the parliamentary Labour party since Crewe and Nantwich byelection. Brown is due to address the meeting to rally the troops. This will be second time he has had to face up to critics at the PLP - the last time was over the 10p tax rate, which led later to the prime minister backing down.

June 9-12

Brown invited to address the GMB's annual conference at Plymouth on the day of his choice he is still deciding whether to go. If he does he will hope to follow the example of Tony Blair, who addressed the GMB to face down the union's criticism of his leadership.

Mid-June

Third reading of the human fertilisation and embryology bill. Brown could face his first ministerial resignation over a question of principle and belief. The issue here is whether Ruth Kelly, a committed Catholic, resigns as transport secretary, rather than vote with the government.

Mid-June

Vote on whether to extend detention without charge to 42 days for terror suspects. Brown faces a revolt by up to 40 Labour MPs who are expected to join the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in opposing the change. The government is trying to persuade other parties, notably the Democratic Unionists, to support it.

End July

People close to Brown say this is the most likely date for a government reshuffle. Brown would be faced with a decision on whether to retire loyalists such as Des Browne, the defence secretary, and former Blair supporters such as Geoff Hoon, the chief whip.

September

Labour party conference. The most dangerous time as party activists can plot Brown's downfall or brief the media on his shortcomings. His speech to the conference is likely to be seen as a turning point.