The recent talk of Greece and its financial challenges has some questioning whether the U.S. could also return to the crisis we experienced in 2008. Some are looking at the rise in real estate values and wondering whether we are in the middle of another housing price bubble.

What actually is a price bubble?

Here is the definition according to Jack M. Guttentag, Professor of Finance Emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania:

“A price bubble is a rise in price based on the expectation that the price will rise. Sooner or later something happens to erode confidence in continued price increases, at which point the bubble bursts and prices drop. What makes it a price bubble is that the cause of the price increase is an expectation that the price will increase, which sooner or later must reverse itself.”

Does Professor Guttentag believe we are in another housing bubble?

In a recent article, he explained:

“My view is that we are a long way from another house price bubble. Home buyers, lenders, investors and regulators now understand that a nationwide decline in house prices is possible — because we recently lived through one.”

What are home prices doing?

Though home values are continuing to appreciate, the acceleration of the increases has slowed to year-over-year numbers which reflect a healthy housing market. Here is a chart showing year-over-year appreciation since January of last year:

We can see that appreciation rates have dropped from double digit numbers to more normal rates of 5% or lower.

Bottom Line

We think Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal put it best in a recent tweet:

“Predictions of a new national home price bubble look unfounded for now, according to data.”

The National Association of Realtors’ most recent Existing Home Sales Report revealed that home sales were up rather dramatically over last year in five of the six price ranges they measure. Only those homes priced under $100,000 showed a decline (-10.1%). The decline in this price range points to the lower inventory of distressed properties available for sale and speaks to the strength of the market. Every other category showed a minimum increase of at least 9%, with sales in the $250,000- $500,000 range up 21.2%!
Here is the breakdown:

What does that mean to you if you are selling?
Houses are definitely selling. If your house has been on the market for any length of time and has not yet sold, perhaps it is time to sit with your agent and see if it is priced appropriately to compete in today’s market.

Dad had every reason to be pessimistic about the world. He was shot down over Germany during WWII while piloting a B-17, interred in a POW camp and lost his hearing. His career as a pilot was finished due to war injuries, and he was born with the name Shirley. Yes, I said his name was Shirley. It would be easy to fall into the muck and wallow in self-pity but that was not his style.

My Dad was a die-hard optimist. Life was good and every day was special.

When I started my business, one of the best things Dad told me was “always remember to make people feel special.” Dad grew up with a desire to help and to enrich the lives of others. He succeeded.

Everyone wants to feel special. Everyone wants to tell you his or her story. You just need to listen.

This is not so surprising. What IS surprising is that more people don’t realize this. When you care about people, and show a genuine interest in their welfare, your life is all the better.

Try this with clients, friends and, most of all, family. Make today the start of a change in your lifestyle. Make someone’s day.

Make someone feel special.

Leave everyone you meet feeling valued. Ask about their day; ask about their lives; just ask and then listen.

Expect little and give much…you will be amazed. The gift of giving someone a sense of self worth is beyond measure. Now that’s special.

The inaugural Opportunity Cost Report was released recently by realtor.com. The report explained that “with interest rates and home prices expected to climb in the next year, the financial penalties of delaying or forgoing a home purchase in today’s market have become very steep”.

The report estimates that, based on today’s dollars, the average purchaser would accumulate $217,726 in increased wealth over a 30-year period.

(You can get the projected wealth increase for almost 100 metros here.)

What could this mean to someone sitting on the fence waiting to buy?

Experts believe that both home prices and mortgage interest rates will increase over the next twelve months. Obviously, if this does happen, the monthly cost of a home a year from now will be dramatically higher than it is today. The Opportunity Cost Reportbreaks down exactly how much a purchaser could lose over increments of one year and three years. Here are the results based on an average purchaser in the U.S. delaying their purchase:

Bottom Line

If you are ready, willing and able to buy a home, waiting doesn’t make sense.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently released the 2015 SCE Housing Survey. The survey revealed that most current renters would prefer owning and that 61.9% of them plan to buy a home within the next five years.

68.3% stated they would prefer owning (with 45.6% saying they ‘strongly’ prefer owning). When asked at what point in the future do they think they will own a primary residence:

8.2% said within a year

15.3% said in 1 to 2 years

38.4% said between 3 to 5 years

What’s Holding Them Back?

Of the 68.3% who would prefer to own, 2 out of 3 cited difficulty in getting a mortgage for the reason they do not own. However, many believe that the reason so many think that it would be difficult to get a mortgage is not fully based on current market realities.

For example, studies have shown that there is confusion over the amount of money needed for a down payment. Research has shown that 40 to 50% of Americans believe that between 15-20% is the minimum required for a down payment. In reality, there are many programs available at 5% and even 3%. There are even some programs that don’t require any down payment (ex. VA loans).

Others fear they need a perfect credit score or believe that the overall mortgaging process has become almost impossible. Actually, the Mortgage Credit Availability Index, a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association, has shown that, over the last seven months, access to mortgages has gotten much more available.

And the NY Fed study suggests that some renters are waiting for interest mortgage rates to fall even further. Fifty percent of the renters surveyed believe mortgage interest rates will fall over the nextyear and almost 10% believe that they will fall by more than 1%. However, the reality of the situation is that Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors are all projecting that rates will be significantly higher at this time next year. They are all predicting mortgage rates will be almost 1% higher!

Bottom Line

Many renters want to own their own home. Some are not moving forward based on misunderstandings regarding the mortgage process. If you are currently a renter who desires the benefits of homeownership, sit down with a local real estate professional to determine what your options actually are.

Happy New Year???????? It’s March 6th of 2014 and I have to admit…I’m a wee bit late getting this blog up and rolling again. The holidays flew by in a flurry of activities and closings. Seriously…lots of closings. I’m thrilled that 2014 was a great year in real estate but it also leaves me little time to update the blog and chat with my favorite peeps. So, I’m starting my New Year’s resolution a few days late (well, a few months late) and letting you know that I resolve to keep you updated on Orlando real estate and I resolve to be a better hunter and gatherer of information on all things real estate. I don’t take these things lightly and I LOVE what I do. I will just work on being more communicative with you about selling Florida homes. Cheers my friends.