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3.
Classical diffusion theory
Everett Rogers (1962)
Found that for most members of a social
system, the adoption-decision depends
heavily on the adoption-decisions of the
other members of the system.
The more people adopt an innovation, the
lower the perceived risk.
The result is an S-curve shaped pattern of
innovation diffusion.
Synthesized research on adoption of
innovation from several fields:
Anthropology, Early sociology, Rural
sociology, Education, Industrial sociology,
Medical sociology

9.
Example 2: dynamics of riots
Consider a hypothetical mob.
Each person's decision to riot or not is
dependent on what everyone else is
doing.
Instigators will begin rioting even if no
one else is, while others need to see a
critical number of trouble makers before
they riot, too (reduces risk of getting
caught).
This threshold for rioting is assumed to
follow some (e.g. normal) distribution.
Result: S-curve.

11.
Classical diffusion theory
When faced with discontinuous
innovations, customers fall into
five broad categories along an
axis of risk-aversion.
Innovators
Early Adopters
Early Majority
Late Majority
Laggards

14.
Innovators – Technology Enthusiasts
Primary Motivation:
- Learn about new technologies for their own sake
Key Characteristics:
- Strong aptitude for technical information
- Like to alpha test new products
- Can ignore any missing elements
- Do whatever they can to help
Challenges:
- Want unrestricted access to top technical people
- Want no-profit pricing (preferably free)
Key Role: Gatekeeper to the Early Adopter

15.
Early Adopters – The Visionaries
Visionaries
Get ahead of
the heard!
Late
Majority
Early
Majority
Early
Adopters
Innovators Laggards

22.
Laggards – Sceptics
Primary Motivation:
- Maintain status-quo
Key Characteristics:
- Good at debunking marketing hype
- Disbelieve productivity-improvement arguments
- Believe in the law of unintended consequences
- Like taking a contrarian position
- Seek to block purchases of new technology
Challenges:
- Not a customer
- Can be formidable opposition to early adoption
Key Role: Retard the development of high-tech markets

23.
Since these groups are so different…
Late
Majority
Early
Majority
Early
Adopters
Innovators Laggards

25.
Crack 1
Early Adopters do talk to Innovators. Still Crack 1 occurs.
Problem: Innovators like cool technology products that cannot be
readily translated into major new business benefits. Early Adopters want
competitive advantage.
• Esperanto
• Desktop Video Conferencing
Solution: The product must be made to enable a valuable strategic leap
forward.

26.
Crack 2
The Late Majority talks to Early Majority. Still Crack 2 occurs.
Problem: The Early Majority is willing and able to become technically
competent when needed. The Late Majority is not.
• Scanners and Video Editing Programs
• Telephone transferring systems
Solution: Ensure very high user-friendlieness to ensure ease of
adoption.

27.
The chasm
Early
Adopters
Innovators
Crack 1
Late
Majority
Early
Majority
Laggards
Crack 2
The Chasm
(This is the big one)

28.
The chasm
The Early Majority does not talk to the Early Adopters.
Hence a huge Chasm.
The Early Adopters is buying a revolutionary change agent
Expect a clear discontinuity between the old and the new
Expect clear strategic advantages
Tolerate bugs and glitches
The Early Majority is buying evolutionary productivity improvement
Want to minimize the discontinuity with the old way
Wants innovations to enhance established business processes
Expect a more or less bug free product

29.
Different value delivered
Visionaries Pragmatist
It is new to the market
It is the fastest product
It is the easiest to use
It has elegant architecture
It has unigue functionality
It is the de facto standard
It has the largest installed base
It has most third party supporters
It has great quality of support
It has a low cost of ownership
The Chasm

30.
Different buying behaviors
Visionaries Pragmatist
Willing to take risk
Rely on horizontal references:
other industries & techies
Want to buy from new firms
Want rich tech-support
Wants very little risk
Relies on vertical references within
their industry
Wants to buy from market leaders
Wants one point of contact
The Chasm

31.
What Pragmatists think of Visionaries
1. The visionaries love technology but are bored with the
mundane details of their own industry, which is the
everyday work of us pragmatists.
2. The visionaries want to build systems from the ground up
and do not appreciate the importance of networks, systems
and processes already in place.
3. The visionaries seem to do all the fun things. They get all
the funds and all the attention for their blue sky projects. If
they fail, it is us pragmatists who have to clean up the mess.
If they succeed, the disruptive change is just too much to
handle.
Pragmatists don’t trust visionaries as references!

32.
Crossing the chasm – Catch 22
“The pragmatists will use only those products that are
already used by a majority of pragmatists. And
generally look to one and other as references. So, how
can we get them to use a new product?”
?
The Chasm
Visionaries Pragmatist

33.
Discovering that you are in the chasm
Visionary markets saturates, or visionaries abandon
- Too late for revolutionary competitive advantage
- There are other cool disruptive things out there
Pragmatists see no reason to buy yet
- Too early for anything to be ”in production”
- No herd of references has yet formed
The Chasm
Visionaries Pragmatist

34.
Crossing the chasm
The problem
- 80% of many solutions – 100% of none
- Pragmatists won’t buy 80% solutions!
Conventional solution (tends to fail)
- Committing to the most common enhancement requests
- Never completely satisfying any one customer segment’s needs
”D-day” solution (more likely to succeed)
- Focus all efforts on a single ”beachhead” segment with a compelling
reason to buy, develop a whole product, become a market leader
- Then leverage product and user references to attack other segments
The consequence of being sales-driven instead
of strategy-driven in the chasm is fatal – Focus !!!
Beachhead segment

38.
Assemble the invasion force
Differentiation
• Think through the customer’s
problems – and solutions – in their
entirety.
• Develop the “whole product”,
including the generic product plus
everything else you need to address
your customers’ compelling reason
to buy.
• These may be provided in-house or
by using partners and alliances.

39.
Define the battle
Positioning
• Positioning is key to make buying easy
– Define your category and position (market leader!)
– Be clear about who will use it and for what?
– Show competition and differentiation (pragmatists
demand a comparative context)
– Ensure staying power
• Positioning statement
– For [target customers],
– Who are dissatisfied with [the current market
alternatives],
– Our product is a [new product category]
– That provides [key problem-solving capability],
– Unlike [the product alternative],
– We have assembled [key whole-product features
for our specific application].

40.
Launch the invasion
Distribution and Pricing
• Secure access to a customer-oriented distribution channel
• Direct sales is often the optimal channel for high tech, and
typically the best initial channel for crossing the chasm
• Reward your channel during the Chasm phase!
• Set pricing at the market leader price-point
Customers will (almost) only see channel and price!

41.
Crossing the Chasm!
1. Target the point of attack
2. Assemble the invasion force
3. Define the battle
4. Launch the invasion
How hard can it be?