Archive for September 2010

Part II of MRBI will, apparently, be released in tomorrow’s IT. They have favoured us with the following snippet

When asked if they would like to see Brian Cowen remaining as Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil until the next election 61 per cent said he should step down while 29 per cent said he should remain and just 10 per cent had no opinion.

So, is that him gone? Well, possibly not….

…among Fianna Fáil voters the position was reversed with 61 per cent saying he should remain and 32 per cent saying he should step down.

ahhh … right, most non-FF voters want him to go, and most FF voters want him to stay …. and the number of people who want him to go is actually less than those supporting parties looking for him to go. Not really saying anything there, I think….

Of interest, given the amateurish attempts by Quantum regarding who should succeed him (70% Lenihen, 30% Martin, 0% all others, according to them)

Mr Lenihan was supported by 39 per cent of voters followed by Micheal Martin on 18 per cent, Mary Hanafin on 8 per cent and Dermot Ahern on 6 per cent. Other candidates attracted the support of 5 per cent while 24 per cent had no opinion.

Sounds a bit more accurate, doesn’t it? No doubt there’ll be more snippets tomorrow….

As I outlined here, there has been much debate as to the MRBI adjustments, and a good deal of p.ie bandwidth devoted to the effect of the new methodology. As I stated in the post linked, I’ve been of the opinion that the facts didn’t stack up to it making a significant difference, and it would appear that I was broadly correct, with the changes going in the opposite direction to that assumed.

When people were asked who they would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow, the figures for party support when the undecided voters are excluded, compared with the last Irish Times poll on June 11th last, were: Fianna Fáil, 24 per cent (up three points); Fine Gael, 24 per cent (down three points); Labour, 33 per cent (up four points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 2 per cent (down two points); and Independents/ Others, 9 per cent (no change).

I’ve just run this through the spreadsheet, and it produces the following seat totals;

LP 66
FG 45 (a good number of these the result of large LP surpluses)
FF 40
SF 7
GP 0
OTH 8

FG/FF on 85 seats between them … who will Shatter be cuddling on these figures….?

Compared to Lansdowne/MB that’s LP down 1, FG down 9, FF up 1, SF up 6, and OTH up 3, which would suggest that the SF vote in that poll was a blip (and the RedC similarly out in the opposite direction). FG are depending on LP transfers to come second on these figures, and so it would appear that their tactics this week have been less than successful. Certainly on this poll, it’s hard to see FG or FF come even close to LP on seats, and there’s no reason that Gilmore would choose FF over FG to be his junior partner. In fact, if this was reproduced in a GE, the only barrier to a LP/FG coalition would be the temptation Enda would have to do a ‘historic’ deal with FF, “burying civil war politics”, him taking Taoiseach and and new FF leader Brian Lenihen continuing in the role of Finance Minister (all in the national interest, of course).

In practise, he’d probably not even had this option, as a number of FG deputies would have been elected on LP surpluses (e.g. Brian Hayes), and might conceivably cross the floor rather than agree to that. So it’d be Tanaiste Kenny, or more likely the leadership would skip a generation. What price Leo the Prince?

It would be interesting though to hear Kenny asked if he’d serve under Gilmore if this was what the result was, or if he’d try to do a deal with FF… Funny old game, politics…..

The poll also shows a moderate recovery in FF’s fortunes, and while they’re not at a critical mass to take much advantage of this yet, another rise on top of this would steady their nerves. Indeed, another poll that showed them 1-2% ahead of FG might even tempt them to go to the people, as they’ve known for a while they couldn’t win the election, but if they run while Kenny is still leader, they could emerge as the official opposition, and ahead of FG. Silver linings in there, alright, and they know that Kenny won’t survive much more of this, and could soon be replaced.

For LP, it shows them on the brink of a very big breakthrough, but the suspicions linger that they’re not ready for it electorally. This is two polls in a week that show them getting more seats than the number of candidates they propose fielding. Even the 66 here excludes another 5 or so where they could pull it off with a better local strategy than I’ve assumed.

And who comes out of this the worst? Well, in my opinion, it’s not FG. It’s RedC. They are now consistently an outlyer against all the other polls (including those which have track records as least as good as them), and their defenders are running out of excuses.

…. of this post – sorry it took so long. Any longer and I’d have had to add MRBI to it.

Louth
While this should be increasing to 5 seats, the unpleasantness about JOD resulted in the swash-buckling Seamus “T” Kirk taking over as CC, making this a 4-seater with an additional FF seat added automatically. A parcel of Meath E – I understand quite pro-LP is also going in, which makes it a little more volatile.

L/MB
FF 19%-2
FG 37%-2
LP 30%-1
SF 11%

A Gilmore Gale in the Lansdowne/MB poll, which should see the Drogheda based LP candidate (probably Nash) elected, and take the spare seat. FG would also gain, on these figures, with McGuinness taking the seat from SF’s Morgan, given the collapse of the SF vote in this poll. Dermot Ahern would, on these figures, be elected on transfers…. it would however vindicate Kirk’s selection as CC, given they wouldn’t have got 2/5 on these figures.

RedC
FF 20%-2
FG 36%-2
LP 15%
SF 20%-1
GP 5%

Very close contest for the last seat, but I’d probably have FG2 shading it from LP1, on the grounds that MCGuinness (sp?) is North of the county, and GP transfers, which LP would need on these figures, are from that end of the constituency. That may not be the outcome of course, and it would be very much re-count material.

Mayo
Given the freakishly high FG vote last time (boosted by the then popular Mayo Manager John O’Mahony), the fact that Bev was an Indo and is now FF, the fact that Dr Jerry was an Indo and is now LP, the likelihood that ex-LP Cllr Kilcoyle will run as an Indo … all make this one a hard one to call

L/MB
FF 25%-1
FG 54%-3
LP 15%-1

The good Dr to get in again, this time courtesy of a national swing. FF to lose out, although who? I’ve got it as Bev, but given she was an Indo before I’ve nothing to base that upon, other than a perhaps over-optimistic faith in human nature. Plus Calleary is likely to be a Minister whenever FF do come back, and I suspect local FF supporters will take that long term view.

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 54%-3
LP 8.3%-1
SF 7.7%

Same outcome, but much much closer, Cowley staying ahead of FG4 on SF and IND transfers, and then getting sufficient surplus from FG3 to take the 4th seat, with the 5th between the 2 FF candidates.

Meath E

L/MB
FF 18%
FG 29%-1
LP 41%-2 (yes, yes, I know….)

LP’s Hannigan would take one seat from FF, and on these figures, LP2 (if such a creature existed) would take the other. Unlikely to see a running mate here for Hannigan, unless LP stay in the 30s.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 27%-1
SF 6%

Here, FF hold one of the seats, although interestingly LP would not be in trouble if they ran 2 candidates, with SF and OTH transfers making them comfortable for the single seat.

Meath W

L/MB
FF 27%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 28%-1
SF 8%

LP gain at the expense of FF, probably Brady, but with local man Shane Cassels attacking Dempsey, it’s unclear if the seat at cabinet will save him. He should probably hold on, but if you’re looking at high profile casualties, this could be one.

RedC
FF 29%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 14.4%-1
SF 15.9%

Much closer for LP, with them getting ahead of SF on transfers. If SF do poll 10% and LP aren’t much over 20%, LP are depending on polling more than FG2 and then getting a surplus from the election of English.

Roscommon/Leitrim

The Ming factor will be one to watch here. Luke Flanagan may have a high profile campaign, but with Indos set to have no leverage in the next Dail, he may find his support softer than he’d wish. If he does well though, he’ll damage ex-Indo Kelly, who is competing with him for the same votes.

L/MB
FF 24%-1
FG 43%-1
LP 20%-1

LP would gain a historic seat, with transfers pushing them ahead of FG2.

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 43%-2
LP 11.8%
SF 12.5%

LP lose out – I have them getting ahead of SF on transfers, but never catching FG2 on the RedC figures.

Sligo / Leitrim

L/MB
FF 26%-1
FG 44%-1
LP 19%-1
SF 8%

O’Keefe takes a seat for LP, although presumably not the same as (ex-?) CPI member Declan Bree did in the Spring Tide. The seat would be at the expense of one of the 2 “Ind” FFers who I expect to be back on the ticket by then.

RedC
FF 27%-1
FG 43%-2
LP 11%
SF 16%

This time, the RedC surge for SF puts them ahead of LP, and FG benefit with a second seat, again at the expense of FF.

Tipp Nth
Lowry country. The spreadsheet assumes no responsibility for the predictions here, in much the same way Newtonian physics don’t work at the sub-atomic level….

On the RedC figures, a big swing to SF means that they are the beneficiaries of FF’s fall from grace in Wexford.

Wicklow

The retirement of Liz McManus, the possibility of a Nicky Kelly solo-run, and Joe Behan’s intentions make this a very hard one to call.

L/MB
FF 17%-1
FG 30%-2
LP 39%-2

LP gain one from FF, probably Behan’s. The mooted 3 candidate strategy would not endanger the 2nd seat on these figures, and would have a long-shot chance if they pulled in extra votes at the expense of FG and/or FF.

RedC
FF 20%-1
FG 31%-2
LP 23%-1
SF 8%
GP 5%
Behan 10%-1

LP 2 loses out to Behan (if he runs). LP3 would need to pull in extra votes to be a benefit, rather than a hindrance to their chances. Definitely a constituency where LP can’t decide on final line up until they know what range of support they’re looking at.

So that’s what last weeks polls suggest in each area. I hope it’s been worth the wait!

On the Lansdowne/Millward Brown poll, LP would come from way behind to taking a seat here, on these figures. It seems a lot, even to me, and if they fell short of that, I’d not be surprised, even with Gilmore being from here. However, if they did worse on the same national total, it’d have to be somewhere else.

RedC
FF 19%-1
FG 50%-2
LP 14%-1

Looks a bit more reasonable to me, I have to say, although tellingly it’s the same outcome. Colm Keaveney looks good to take a seat here, triggering a mass exodus of transsexuals from Tuam

Galway W
This is a tough one, as I’m not sure whether to include Michael D as a LP candidate, given he’s said it will depend on the timing of the election vis-a-vis the Presidential election. I’ve assumed he’s standing, so if he doesn’t you can assume a worse LP result

L/MB
FF 14%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 37%-2
OTHs 22%-1

It would appear that FF would hold onto a single seat here on these figures (O’Cuiv), if the swing in this poll materialised and MDH was running. Noel Grealish would also hang on, and LP2 would be elected on transfers.

RedC
FF 17%-1
FG 26%-1
LP 23%-1
OTHs 26%-2

On these figures, the FF seat would fall not to LP2, but to a second leftwing Indo, making Galway West the most diverse constituency delegation in the nest Dail.

Kerry N -Limerick
L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 25%-1
SF 16%

Cliffhanger! LP take a seat, but the identity of the loser goes to a re-count. SF may do better in FG transfers than FF in a lot of places, but the general Limerick area may not be one of them.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 34%-1
SF 26%-1
LP 15%

Red C figures, LP well down (on other polls, that is…), SF well up, would see LP fighting it out with FF for the last seat. Very very close, and LP could definitely get it, but I’ve FF just a bit too far ahead to be pulled in without very good FG transfers, which Arthur may not pull off.

Kerry S

L/MB
FF 25%-1
FG 27%-1
LP 29%-1
H-R 17%

LP gain from the Healy-Raes, rather than FF.

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 28%-1
LP 20%-1
H-R 18%

The same result, but much closer. The 2 polls together suggest that this constituency is between LP and IND for the last seat.

Kildare N

L/MB
FF 14%
FG 23%-1
LP 48%-2
Murphy 10%-1

On these figures, LP would gain one from FF, and the second FF seat would also fall to either Indo Catherine Murphy or LP3, with Murphy favourite to shade it, as a result of poor LP vote management.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 26%-1
LP 33%-1
Murphy 13%-1

In this scenario, LP2 loses out, but Murphy takes one of the 2 FF seats.

Kildare S

L/MB
FF 33%-1
FG 20%-1
LP 41%-1

FG take a seat from FF, nudging ahead of LP2, who don’t manage their vote sufficiently well enough to pull of a gain.

RedC
FF 37%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 32%-1

Same outcome, just less suspense….

Laois-Offaly

L/MB
FF 45%-2
FG 33%-2
LP 16%-1

LP win back the seat they took in the Spring Tide with Pat “Can Cope” Gallagher. Assuming they find a candidate….. Mental health Minister Maloney would lose the seat.

RedC
FF 46%-3
FG 33%-2
LP 8.6%
SF 8.5%

FF hold on to 3 out of the 5, with LP getting ahead of FG3 on SF transfers, but falling too far short to catch Moloney.

Limerick City

L/MB
FF 22%-1
FG 28%-1
LP 46%-2

Major changes here, a large chunk of FG-friendly votes being pushed out of the constituency, a loss of a seat, two FG finance spokespersons, a disgraced poll-topping former Minister sharing a FF ticket with a junior that many would see as more capable, a SF candidate who brought said Minister down, and a LP looking to capitalise on a Gilmore Gale.

Figures come out with LP and the boundary revision taking one each from FF and FG. I’d like to think O’Dea and Noonan would be the ones to go, but unfortunately I think it will be O’Donnell and Power. Both, however, would be back, IMO, the following election.

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 32%-2
SF 7%

Same outcome, but closer between O’Donnell and Leddin (likely LP2) who gets in on SF transfers.

Limerick County

L/MB
FF 29%-1
FG 43%-1
LP 27%-1

LP pull off a seat at the expense of FF. This constituency has been volatile in the past, with the 3rd seat passing between FF, FG2 and even the PDs (when FG1 didn’t get in!).
RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 45%-2
LP 20%

Sorry this took a while, part 2 of 4. I’ll try to get the rest up tomorrow.

Dublin C

L/MB
FF 15%
FG 13% – 1
LP 47% – 2
OTHs 18%-1
SF 5%

A bit of a hard one to call, as there may be a number of strong indos running, and there’s no guarantee that O’Sullivan will be one of them. Perry will have a good chance if she doesn’t (or possibly even if she does) and Christy may jump into the melee and see what happens. Lp may even run a 3rd candidate. But when I run the Lansdowne figures, it’s LP 2 comfortably enough (with LP3 losing out due to poor splitting of the vote), Donaghue getting through (almost by default, given the collapse in SF) and O’Sullivan beating Fitzpatrick on the last count.

RedC
FF 17% -1
FG 14%
LP 32%-2
SF 12%
OTH 23%-1

The significant difference would be FG gaining little in LP surplus loses to FF, who are that bit closer to the line from the start. A 3rd candidate for LP actually makes them a little safer, by reducing Joe’s share of the total LP fpv, and therefore his surplus, from which there’ll be be leakage due to his personal vote. That’d probably be the end of Paschal’s career here – 3 times tipped to win, and a 3-time loser.Dublin MW

L/MB
FF 13%
FG 21% -1
LP 49%- 3
SF 5%
GP 5%
PBP 3%

LP get 3 seats, gaining one each from FF and the GP, and FG gain one from Mary Harney. Seems unlikely? Well, they are 43% in Dublin in this poll, and 49% is what the spreadsheet is throwing up here. FG for all their bluster aren’t going to go from 0 to 2, they’ll get the one gain and barring a bigger swing, that’ll be that. The GP seat being up for grabs is probably beyond debate (there are rumours that Gogarty may not run) which plays largely into LP’s hands, and that combined with the drop in SF in this poll means that at 49%, LP would be well placed to have 3 candidates ahead of everyone except FG (when the second candidate is eliminated), including FF. Of course a stronger performance by FF would see them take the seat, or a poorer LP one, but if Tuffy goes with one running mate in each ward (Dowd & Jones perhaps) and particularly pushes LP voters in Lucan to give Jones No.1s, they would be very well placed on these figures, with nearly 4 times the FF vote, and transfers from SF to come (transfers from GP aren’t likely to unduly favour FF, I would have thought). It’d be close, certainly, but in the absence of a FF recovery, or a bigger swing to FG, it’d be what looks likeliest.

RedC
FF 15% -1
FG 23%-1
LP 33%-2
SF 12%
GP 7%

LP wouldn’t get a 3rd seat with 3rd candidate, no matter how well managed and FF would then hang on, making it a constituency in Dublin where FF don’t lose a seat. The second LP seat would still appear to be safe enough, even with 3 candidates if they ran them, however it split. SF would have an outside chance of beating Curran, but would probably fall just short.

Dub N

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 18%-1
LP 40%-2
GP 8%

Both Govt parties lose a seat to LP – probably not a shock, in the current circumstances.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 20%-1
LP 25%-1
GP 11%-1
SP 11%

Assuming LP don’t split the vote well here, LP2 behind SP/GP, and helping Sargant more (based on his personal vote). Last seat is however between GP, SP and LP2. Main FF interest is who takes the remaining seat.

Dub NC

L/MB
FF 19%-1
FG 29%-1
LP 37%-1
FmcG 13%

Assuming 1 LP candidate here, a second would possibly outpoll McGrath, depending on the split, but still there’d be too much ground to make up for LP2 on FF. Haughey would sweat a little, nevertheless.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 30%-1
LP 23%-1
FMG 16%

LP still get the seat, but should only run a running mate if they will bring in votes that McGrath would otherwise take. I’d like to see a few more polls with LP over 25% before I’d recommend it.

Dub NE

L/MB
FF 15%
FG 24%-1
LP 52%-2
SF 8%

Two handy seats for LP on these figures, as there was when LP went from 0 to 2 in ’92 (a 4-seater then). FF and SF not even close on these figures.

RedC
FF 17%
FG 26%-1
LP 36%-1
SF 16%-1

The very high polling for SF in the RedC figures puts them back into contention. LP would need to split their vote unreasonably well to win a second. No danger to the 1st seat in 2 candidates, though.

Dublin NW

L/MB
FF 20%-1
FG 11%
LP 58% (yes, I know)-2
SF 8%

The general assumption is that LP can’t win 3 out of 3 anywhere. If the polls showing them over 30% come to fruition, this will be tested. In this poll, LP were up and SF down, and FF only barely beat LP3 as a result of poor split in LP vote and a significant SF non-transferable vote. With the same figures and a well run LP campaign, they’d take the 3 seats. But I reckon they’ll not go for it.

RedC
FF 23%-1
FG 12%
LP 40%-2
SF 19%

Even if they run 3 candidates, whatever the split LP would be sure of 2 seats here, thanks to FG transfers. No chance of the 3rd on those figures, but no harm in trying, given the possibility of polling higher.

Dublin S

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 32%-2
LP 44%-2
GP 5%

Well, the swings were always of a higher quality in Dublin South! Two safe as houses seats for LP, one from each coalition partner, and safe to run a third if they wished.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 34%-2
LP 30%-2
GP 7%
SF 5%

Same result, but LP in on SF transfers (presumably against FG3). Ryan well behind. A 3rd Lp candidate is unlikely to cause difficulties, and more likely to knock Ryan out even earlier by taking some of his vote, arguably making 2nd seat even safer.

Not that they’ll believe me….

Dublin SC

L/MB
FF 10%-1
FG 16%-1
LP 56%-3
PBP 9%
SF 5%

LP would not only be safe for 3 seats on these figures, but would be competitive for a 4th seat if they ran a Byrne-HUpton-Conaghan-Moynihan ticket. They’d ultimately fall just short, but it would be close enough, and I’d not like to guess who’d win the 3rd seat. FF would probably win the last seat without reaching the quota.

RedC
FF 12%
FG 17%-1
LP 40%-3
SF 12%-1
PBP 11%
Ding-dong battle here. By my reckoning, SF would hold onto this seat from PBP transfers, which would also be helping LP3 across the line ahead of FF1. But it would be very close, and it’s hard to call – SF would be the most vulnerable to a stronger FF challenge, and PBP would be very close also. In the spreadsheet I have them running both Collins (who was Indo last time) and Smith, and there’s some leakage in the transfers. If they ran a single candidate who managed to take all of the votes that would have gone to both of them last time, they’d probably stay ahead of SF and take that last seat.

Dub SE

L/MB
FF 16%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 49%-2
GP 6%

I’ve given the GP a ‘leaders bonus’, but it’s done nothing for them here. On the basis of this poll, the tide is out big time, and there’s little that would appear could save Gormley. LP on the other hand, with a very balanced ticket, appear well placed to deliver on the promise from the LEs and take a second seat, but a comfortable margin. FF’s Chris Andrews would appear well placed, particularly if he doesn’t have a running mate imposed on him.
RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 35%-2
GP 10%
SF 6%

Not quite as comfortable, but no change from Lansdowne. At least Gormley gets to contest the last seat with Humphries, but the outcome is the same.

Dub SW

L/MB
FF 14%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 51%-2
SF 9%

This is a constituency where LP could pull in a 3rd candidate, but show no interest in it, from what I can see. If they are 43% in Dublin, they are over 50% here, even losing Rabbitte’s “leaders bonus”, and other left-wing transfers should push them to the 58-9% required on the last count to get a 3rd seat, but Rabbitte is unlikely to run more than one running mate no matter what the situation, I’m given to understand. The beneficiary would, most likely, be FF who’d hold one of their 2 TDs, although they would face a stiff challenge from SF, who would benefit from SP transfers and a fair bit of Labour’s surplus.

RedC
FF 16.7%
FG 23%-1
LP 33.2%-2
SF 17.2%-1

As you can see, much closer here. FF despite having a higher first pref, would lose out to SF who perform much better under RedC, taking the 3rd seat, and LP2 takes the 4th seat on SP transfers. Very very close though, and if you argued FF would take this at the expense of LP, I’d not get into an argument with you – it’d just be too close to call.

Dublin W

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 15%
LP 52%-2
SP 13%-1

I’ve made an adjustment to the base here to account for what I believe will be a bigger personal vote for Lenihen here, for reasons I think most of you will understand. LP appear unlikely to run 3 candidates (although there’s merit in the idea, Nulty running to take votes from Higgins, and Kelleher to take votes in the new Swords part of the constituency). Their surplus is likely to help Higgins a bit more than Leo, although I’d not write him off, even on these figures.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 17%-1
LP 38%-2
SP 17%

Here, the lower LP vote means no LP surplus to help Joe haul in Leo. It’s also a case where LP running that 3rd candidate could lose them the 2nd seat.

Dun Laoghaire

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 47%-2
PBP 8%

Well, LP got above their average here last time, they have their leader here now, a bad area for LP has been moved in the revision, and they are 43% in Dublin on this poll, so I guess it’s no surprise that they’d be 47% here. RBB would have have to postpone the revolution for another 5 years. Interestingly, FF would hang on, with a vote that’s a bit better than the LP poll we heard of last month The most interesting part of the count might be which FF Minister hold on at the expense of the other.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 27%-1
LP 34%-2
PBP 10%
GP 5%
SF 4%

No change on above, but LP2 depending on transfers from PBP (if GP/SF don’t elect them first).

Two polls, and two very different results. P.ie has been dissecting the results, and predictably, those who prefer the outcome of RedC are arguing that Lansdowne and Millward Brown are somehow unfit for purpose. LP at either 23% or 35%? SF at 4% or 10%? While it would appear that there is a significant vote floating between those two parties, it’s still not enough to explain these variances.

As (I think) I showed in this exchange , Lansdowne/Millward are as good as most, and have in fact been pretty impressive in the past. But RedC have a fine GE record also, even though they’ve been out of sync to a degree with MRBI recently, and particularly the last 12 months.

In fact, the best argument in favour RedC’s methodology is that Quantum Research also disagree with it on LP and SF support rating LP at 33% when undecideds are excluded, which means that QR is closer to MRBI (32%) and Lansdowne/Millward (35%) than RedC. Although personally, I’ve assumed that this is a lack of imagination on the good Doctor’s part, rather than professional excellence on the part of QR.

RedC could of course be out of kilter, as they’ve been disagreeing with MRBI also regarding the level LP are at, although this argument may be resolved in the coming days

MRBI may move with the change in methodology, but if they don’t (and they had LP on 29% without adjustments), that puts RedC on their own, as no-one else is currently putting LP in the 20s, never mind 23%. If MRBI put them at below 25% next week, most analysts (including myself) will believe it). But if MRBI keep them above 26%, RedC are pretty isolated, and from companies with comparable track records to themselves.

Anyways, I told people on p.ie that I’d do a breakdown of the 2 polls by constituency, and (for reasons best known to who knows) I’ll keep my word. Before reading this, please bear in mind that local results always vary somewhat from the uniform swing. This gives you an idea of what that uniform swing is that they’d be deviating from, rather than is some sort of portal into the future. However, if your party over-performs the national swing somewhere, it will under-perform elsewhere. Effectively, unless you’re a small party, the differences will cancel out.

The spreadsheet takes the 2007 results as a base for the distribution of the vote, and makes some small changes, e.g. Regarding PD votes, personal votes, effects of boundary changes etc.

It then computes uniform swings in (a) the vote each party received, and (b) the vote each party didn’t receive (e.g. Non-LP vote down from 90% to 65% is X% etc). The composite of these effects is combined with a further swing which take into account the proportion of the national swing in ’92 experienced in each area (the idea of this is that while LP got big gains then nationally, it was quite low in some areas such as Kerry). The composite of all these votes is them calculated. In each constituency, the total will now be above/below 100%, and each party total is then apportioned up/down to adjust to 100%. National totals are then calculated, and where they are deviating from the input figures, there is an adjustment across the board to bring them back in line. You then have a distribution of votes that adds up, and is remarkably similar in pattern to what has happened in the past when there was significant swings.

Sounds like a lot, but it takes less than a second, running on OpenOffice on a pretty old laptop.

Next, it feeds into 43 constituency tabs. Each of these assumes a percentage of each parties vote will go to particular candidates, and is set up to auto-compute counts when you enter your estimation of how the transfers go. This is a manual job, and is the most subjective part. I’m assuming good transfers between FG and LP, except when there’s a good left-wing candidate present (although FG still get a decent share there also). Better transfers too to SF this time, and also more SF transfer to FG than in the past (but more to LP, about 35-40%). GP / FF about 35-40% each way. A typical LP vote split is 2:1, although late 3rd additions are assumed to do pretty badly (3.5/2/1).

When I’ve finished the final count, I enter the party seats in each tab, and that feeds back to the ‘front’ tab, although if it’s very obvious from the headline figures, I may not bother with the constituency tab, and just enter the seat totals on the front tab.

So that’s how I do it. Disagree with the assumptions? Fine. Do your own, and share the results!

This post would be rather long without breaking it up a bit, so I’ll do that alphabetically (for no better reason than it’s how I’ve laid out the front page of the spreadsheet….). It’s lunchtime and I’ve done the first of 4 instalments (Carlow-Kilkenny to Donegal South-West). I’ll stick this up now, and the other 3 as they’re done (hopefully this evening, other duties permitting…..)

Dotski
————

Carlow-Kilkenny to Donegal South-West

Carlow-KilkennyLansdowne/MB
FF 32% – 2
FG 34% – 2
LP 26% -1
GP 4%

Fairly straightforward. The spreadsheet is adjusted to assume a lower swing against FF on the grounds that McGuiness will tap into a lot of the ex-PD vote for his “rebel” grandstanding (despite his happiness to feed from the trough when offered the opportunity). FG gain from FF, and LP gain from GP, with only a good FF performance (and the lack of a bad one from FG) stopping them taking another seat from FF.

RedC
FF 34% – 2
FG 35% -2
LP 17%-1
SF 7%
GP 6%

The same outcome, but no outside chance of LP getting a second seat. No risk to the single seat from a 2nd LP candidate though (30% in the broad left/green camp) so it would still appear prudent for LP to run 2 candidates. There’s no risk to FG running 3 candidates, as their 2 seats are safe.
————-

Cavan-Monaghan

L/MB
FF 24% – 1
FG 37% – 2
LP 13% – 1
SF 16% – 1

This was a 4-seater last time out, due to Ardal O’Hanlon’s Dad being the CC. FF on these figures would lose 2 seats, one to FG and one to LP who will most likely field Teacher Des Cullen. I’m told that LP in Cavan has seen an a number of new people looking to join, with a new branch to be established in South Cavan, and these could be the bodies who help them over the line here. Unlikely? Well LP couldn’t run a candidate in 1989, but got 8.3% in ’92, when getting 19.5% nationally, i.e. about 43% of their national vote. The same proportion here would amount to 15% in Cavan-Monaghan, so this is far from impossible, particularly given the influx of Dub refugees since then.

RedC
FF 24% – 1
FG 34% – 2
SF 26% – 2
LP 6%

The much lower LP vote in this poll would be a result of SF, a party they are competing with for votes, and who are very strong here, getting much more, as a result of a general swing to them.

There’s a further 10% who would largely be well disposed to LP, but not enough for them to pull in the Cavan SF candidate on these figures. Looking at this, I think LP have to be about 4 times SF’s national polling to be pulling the seat here, e.g. 6% SF and 24% LP.
————-

Clare

L/MB
FF 29% – 1
FG 40% – 2
LP 14% – 1
Breen (Ind)11%
GP 3%

Well, assuming they run a candidate….. LP famously went from no candidate in 1989 to having a TD in ’92 with Dr Bhamjee who pulled in 11.5%. On the basis of this poll, a similar result is likely in Clare this time out.

RedC
FF 30% -1
FG 40% – 2
Breen(Ind) 11% – 1
LP 7%
SF 6%
GP 4%

In the RedC, LP would be likely to lose out to former a Indo TD, should he run. Should he not be in the race, LP are right back in it, fighting it out with FF for the last seat.
——————–

Cork East

L/MB
FF 21% – 1
FG 30% – 1
LP 44% – 2

Fairly straightforward, with the second LP candidate (preumably Mulvihill the Younger) taking a second LP seat at FF’s expense.

RedC
FF 23% – 1
FG 31% – 1
LP 34% – 2
SF 8%
GP 2%

Closer, but still LP would be favourite to take the second seat, regardless of candidate split, given SF and GP transfers are more likely to benefit them than FG, who’d start off 3% behind anyway.
—————-

Cork NC

L/MB
FF 12%
FG 30% – 2
LP 40% -2
SF 5%
SP 5%

LP’s Gilroy gain one seat very handily, and FG2 takes the last seat on SP transfers (with Mick Barry very nearly getting ahead of him – penultimate count being FG2 13.96%, FF1 13.59% and SP on 11.24%). Very tight.

RedC
FF 14%
FG 32% – 2
LP 24% -1
SF 11% – 1
SP 7%

Here LP lose out to SF. No threat to the 1st LP seat though (and it’s still possible if they split the vote fairly evenly), so 2-candidate strategy is justified, particularly as Gilroy is likely to be brining in extra votes.
—————-

Cork NW

L/MB
FF 35% – 1
FG 42% – 1
LP 21% – 1

LP gain the seat, with a vote just over half that of FG (by about 0.5%). A handful of GP transfers, and the FF surplus would have to favour FG 2:1 over LP for the latter to lose out. Not safe, but very probable in these circumstances.

RedC
FF 38% – 1
FG 43% – 2
LP 14%

Rather worse for LP… in this case LP would be transfer fodder for FG.
—————

Somewhat more surprising this one…. LP are still in the hunt, but a poor vote split (about 2:1) would see her fall 0.7% behind SF’s new recruit O’Leary, who would be elected on LP surplus and GP transfers. It is quite a soft SF gain however, and even if they fell back to 9% nationally, they’d probably lose this to LP. Still, they’ll take some heart from the idea that they’d even have a chance, and this could see O’Leary stay south of the river.
—————-

Cork SW

L/MB
FF 26%
FG 38%
LP 29%

1/1/1.

RedC
FF 28%
FG 39%
LP 21%
SF 7%
GP 5%

Again 1/1/1, this time LP depending on at least a third of SF/GP transfers to get a quota.
—————-

Donegal NE

L/MB
FF 35% – 1
FG 27% – 1
LP 18% – 1 (yes, I know…)
SF 12%

Quite a surprise, even if LP are 35% and SF 4% nationally. Or is it? LP went from nowhere here in 1989 to 11.34% in 1992, when they were 19.5% nationally. An equivilent vote on 35% would be 20% this time, and presumably Harte has brought some amount of a personal vote.

RedC
FF 35% – 1
FG 26% – 1
SF 21% – 1
LP 11%

Less surprising, SF taking a FF seat, and Harte doing slightly less well than Maloney did for LP in 1992. A run as Indo by McDaid could of course throw it all into confusion, of course….
————–

Well, 48 hours is a long time in polling. Red C has hit the newstands again, and this time, they show enough difference to Thursday’s Lansdowne/TV3 poll to establish that one of them is well out of kilter. I’ll being doing a cross-poll analysis tomorrow as promised elsewhere, so I’ll reserve analysis on that matter until then.

Tonight’s results are;

FF 24%
FG 31%
LP 23%
SF 10%
GP 3%
OTH 9%

I’ve just run the results through the spreadsheet, and they threw up the following outcome in seats;

FG 59
LP 44
FF 42
SF 12 (!)
GP 1
OTH 8

Very very different, and LP and SF aren’t just getting different ratings to Thursday’s poll, well outside normal variances, but going in opposite directions. LP are of course 12% down on Lansdowne (although still 2.3 times their 2007 vote), whereas SF go from oblivion to record heights in the blink of an eye.

Where does that leave the parties? Well, FF and FG in fairness are pretty much the same as Thursday, so unsurprised about their own performances. Kenny however will be delighted that LP appear to be back in their rightful place, fighting with FF over who is third. FF will also take some comfort at being neck and neck for the silver medal.

LP will be very disappointed, particularly after Thursday, despite this being a rating that would see them outperform every LP election result in the history of the State.