With hard-minded realists like Armitage claiming fatalistically that Washington will just wait until the President's plan completely fails, Palosi's trip to Damascus is much welcomed. It is high time that both parties begin figuring out what options are available to them once Bush moves on. Talking to Syria's president is only one step in this process. As Packer makes clear in his moving article about the Iraqi translators, the consequences of America's failure in Iraq have already devastated the lives of so many. The real impact is only in mid-stream. Many more refugees will be spit out of Iraq before it is over. The US has no plans to take in those Iraqis that have helped the US, as they tried to do in Vietnam, when departing US officials cleared the way for over 100,000 Vietnamese to get visas to the US.

WASHINGTON – The Bush administration has launched a campaign to isolate and embarrass Syrian President Bashar Assad, using parliamentary elections in late April as a lever, according to State Department officials and Syrian exiles.

The campaign, which some officials fear is aimed at destabilizing Syria, has been in the works for months.

It involves escalating attacks on Syria's human rights record, which is generally regarded as abysmal, as well as White House-approved support for Syrian bloggers and election monitors inside and outside the country to highlight the nation's lack of freedom, the officials and others said.

The State Department in recent weeks has issued a series of rhetorical broadsides against Syria, using language harsher than that usually reserved for U.S. adversaries. On Friday, the administration criticized a planned visit there by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif..

"It's the new Cuba – no language is too tough," said one of the officials, who like others insisted on anonymity to discuss internal government planning.

The campaign appears to fly in the face of the recommendations last December of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, which urged President Bush to engage diplomatically with Syria to stabilize Iraq and address the Arab-Israeli conflict. The White House largely ignored that recommendation, agreeing only to talk with Syria about Iraqi refugees and to attend a Baghdad conference where envoys from Iran and Syria were present.

Some officials who are aware of the campaign say they fear its real aim is to weaken or even overthrow Assad and to ensure that he can't thwart the creation of an international tribunal to investigate the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. A U.N. report has implicated Syrian and Lebanese officials in the murder.

The officials say the campaign bears the imprint of Elliott Abrams, a conservative White House aide in charge of pushing Bush's global democracy agenda.

The plan's defenders say the effort to support democracy and speak out against repression in Syria is no different from similar U.S. efforts aimed at governments in Cuba, Iran, Zimbabwe and elsewhere.

The parliamentary elections scheduled for April 22 appear certain to be rigged, according to experts on Syria and critics of Assad's authoritarian regime.

Almost three-quarters of the seats in parliament are set aside for members of the Ba'ath Party, which has ruled Syria since a 1963 coup, and its allies. New campaign spending rules appear designed to undercut the few truly independent candidates.

"Our objective is to have real elections in Syria. . . . It's important to get that kind of message across and, number two, to expose what's happening in Syria," said Najib Ghadbian, who's affiliated with the National Salvation Front, a loose coalition of mostly exiled Syrian government opponents. The group gets no U.S. funding, he said.

Joshua Landis, a University of Oklahoma assistant professor who studies Syria, agreed that the election outcome isn't in doubt, but said U.S. pressure will have little impact. "The problem is, America's such a discredited bully pulpit for this kind of thing," he said.

Indeed, U.S. efforts to isolate Syria received a setback at this week's Arab summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi leadership, which has ostracized Assad since the Hariri assassination, appeared to welcome him back into the fold.

Ahmed Salkini, a Syrian embassy spokesman, said, "There is nothing not free" about the upcoming elections, and he called U.S. criticisms hypocritical in light of alleged U.S. rights abuses at the Guantanamo prison.

McClatchy Newspapers is withholding some details about Syrian groups and individuals involved in monitoring the April elections because their followers could face arrest in Syria.

But a classified government document that surfaced in December proposed a covert election-monitoring effort that would be funded by a State Department-run democracy promotion program known as the Middle East Partnership Initiative. MEPI has set aside $5 million for activities aimed at Syria.

U.S. officials confirmed the existence of the document, which was first reported by Time magazine.

The document identified the U.S. government-funded International Republican Institute as a potential partner in the effort. An IRI spokeswoman declined comment this week.

At least some elements of the plan appear to have gone forward.

Several Internet sites have been created to monitor and discuss the April elections, which are to be followed in May by a referendum on Assad's rule. One, largely in Arabic, is www.transparentsyria.com.

As McClatchy Newspapers first reported last year, the Bush administration also has orchestrated meetings of Syrian opposition figures under the auspices of the Aspen Institute's Berlin offices. White House officials have met with representatives of the National Salvation Front, a broad umbrella group that includes Islamists from the Muslim Brotherhood and former Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam.

In Washington, meanwhile, the State Department's verbal attacks on Syria have gotten harsher.

On March 8, in what several officials said was an opening volley, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack issued a statement urging Assad to allow full media coverage of the elections and permit independent monitors. "The United States is deeply concerned that the Syrian regime will again fail its people by not holding free and fair elections," he said.

On Thursday, McCormack issued another statement, expressing concern over two imprisoned human rights activists in Syria, Anwar al-Bunni and Kamal al-Labwani. Al-Labwani was arrested in November 2005 after returning from a trip that included a meeting with a top White House adviser.

He again called for the establishment of an international court to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. 'We call for Lebanese national consensus about this,' he said.

Seniora told reporters during the joint press conference that Lebanese forces with the help of German and Dutch UN troops were doing their best to stop arms smuggling across Lebanese borders. 'Up till now, not a single case of smuggling through the border has been put forward to us,' he said. He called on Ban to share any information about arms smuggling with the Lebanese government.

According the Levant News, the Syrian government bulldozed a number of houses in a Kurdish section of Raqqa following Nawrous celebrations. The houses it bulldozed were chosen at random because they were near the area in which the celebrations took place.

I've marveled for some time now at the abundance of unmistakable evidence to the contrary, so much of the mainstream media in the U.S. appears to feel dutybound to parrot Condi Rice's giddy fantasies about processes underway in the Middle East, and her Administration's central role in shaping them. For months now we've been fed this pile of manure about the U.S. orchestrating a "realignment" in the region, with moderate Sunni Arab states joining with the U.S. and Israel to isolate and confront Iran, Hamas and others Washington dubs "extremists." Then, last week, as she set out on her umpteenth "Looking Busy" tour of the region, we were served up grand accounts of how Condi was choreographing a complex diplomatic dance aimed at revving the "peace process" (a word that, like "gold standard", has survived in the media's lexicon despite the institutions and practises it describes having long passed from the scene).

I wrote on this at length this week at the excellent web journal TomDispatch measuring the spin transmitted by mainstream news outlets against the real processes occurring in the region. And wondering why Washington-based correspondents seem to take Condi's fantasy narrative a lot more seriously than their counterparts in Israel and the Arab world.

But as the week wore on, it became blatantly obvious that Rice's efforts, and her perspective, are largely irrelevant to events now unfolding, and what much of the media appears reluctant to tell its readers — perhaps for fear of offending Condi and her handlers? — is that even those Arab leaders considered closest to the U.S. have taken to ignoring the advice and injunctions of the Secretary of State and the Administration she represents.

The bubble finally burst in Riyadh this week, when King Abdullah — who has already blatantly ignored failed U.S. policies of trying to isolate both, by engaging extensively with the Iranians on regional tensions in Lebanon and elsewhere, and by brokering a Palestinian unity government that put President Mahmoud Abbas into a power sharing arrangement with Hamas, against the express wishes of the Bush Administration — rhetorically slapped down the U.S. occupation of Iraq, calling it illegal, and also demanding an end to the U.S. led financial siege of the Palestinian Authority.

What's interesting about the sudden public break from Washington and assertion of political independence by the "Arab moderates" that were supposedly the vanguard of Bush Administration Middle East policy Version 7.4, is that it is a profound vote of no-confidence in U.S. policy. The Saudis, Egyptians and Jordanians could simply no longer sit back and watch the U.S. wreaking havoc throughout the region, because the resulting catastrophe would sweep away their regimes, too. It was as if Abdullah had given George W. Bush five years to pursue his fantasy of remaking the region through force, and now had to call time on the Bush era before it was too late for his own regime.

The Saudis are distancing themselves from the US out of self-interest. But the gestures towards discussing Israeli-Palestinian peace right now are a symptom of the combined political weakness of all the main participants — the Arab regimes, the Israeli government, President Mahmoud Abbas and the U.S. And the Arabs are making clear that no progress is possible unless the U.S. is prepared to press Israel, which is extremely unlikely both because of Bush's own preferences, but also, frankly, because of the grip of AIPAC on mainstream thinking in both parties in Washington. Etc etc.

The US Institute of Peace recently completed a round of track II diplomacy with representatives from each of Iraq's neighbors. Here is the link to their website with the full-text of the Marmara Declaration on regional cooperation on Iraq — the outcome of a Track II USIP put together this week in Istanbul.

Given all the new momentum on Iraq regional diplomacy, this declaration by leading foreign policy figures from Iraq and all its neighbors is particularly timely. http://www.usip.org/

Comments (54)

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack issued a statement urging Assad to allow full media coverage of the elections and permit independent monitors. “The United States is deeply concerned that the Syrian regime will again fail its people by not holding free and fair elections,”

Nope … this administration can only damage the reputation of any freedom fighter who associates with it publicly.

Too bad. All they have to do to gain some reputation is to display the same passion that they displayed for Syrian political prisoners, for the others in Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Jordan .. there is more torture and more political prisoners there. much more, in the case of Egypt.

But it is a good idea to empower local bbloggers who can expose stupidities in the way elections are conducted. Although … who cares anyway, there is not much to be hoped for this time. I just wish Syrian opposition can take a calmer and more realistic approach to reform … hoping to have much more serious elections 7 years form now.

For God’s sake, why do we keep kidding ourselves about a serious internal Syrian Opposition? I just do not see it. The Silent Majority? Perhaps! It is there for sure as it is everywhere. But nobody has an exclusive claim to it in Syria. Least of all the MB’s or the Ghaderies.

And is Sean McCormak not sufficiently disillusind yet with the degree of sympathy Arabs have to such calls for Democratization originating from DC? Was it a slow day for him at the State Department, or is it intended to demonstrate to Husni Mubarak that the Bush administration is even in distributing its criticism?

Pity this administration and its mouthpiece Sean McCormack; wouldn’t be fun to see the looks on their faces if they ever find out that Bashar’s ratings in Syria exceed those of Bush in America?

And pity the Syrian opposition sipping either cappuccino or rose water in London, Paris, and Washington. These opposition groups think they know what is good for Syria via remote sensing. Sure, Khaddam knows exactly what is best for the Syrian people. He even has receipts to that effect.

The only real opposition is what Ausamaa said, the vast silent majority. The threat to the police state is not going to come from Washington, Beirut, or Tel Aviv. It is coming from the real hard workers all over Syria. Those who go to work every day, get their children educated, and manage to make through an otherwise tough life. These are the heroes in the making; slowly but surely learning, progressing, and maturing. A woman can have a baby in 9 months, but she sure cannot have 9 babies in one month.

Give the Syrians inside a little chance. They know what the heck they are doing. I believe in them. The will email us all when they are ready.

the consequences of America’s failure in Iraq have already devastated the lives of so many.

Wow, you outdid yourself with this one. You are the one who keeps bragging about and justifying how Assad continues to allow killers across into Iraq because he’s using it for leverage to force the Americans to cede his terms, and to make sure the Americans fail in Iraq. And then you have the audacity to write this, waxing all humanistic?

Akbar Palace,
Regarding Bush, it is not only here on this blog that the “bitching” is high; it is all over America if you have already noticed. And as far as Israel is concerned, it is the Israeli public that is moaning and screaming louder than ever. Have you not checked the latest polls in Israel?

The term “neo-conservative” has many usages, including “former liberal” and “Jewish conservative”. In recent years, however, it has taken on clearer definition as a philosophy of aggressive unilateralism and the attempt to impose democratic ideas on the Arab world. The neo-conservatives also constitute a distinct group around George W. Bush, the US president. They pushed for the invasion of Iraq and remain identified with hardline positions on Iran, Syria and North Korea.

Outside the administration, the chief fulcrum of neo-conservatism is the American Enterprise Institute. The day after vice-president Dick Cheney’s former aide Scooter Libby was convicted of perjury, AEI held its annual black-tie gala. I did not go expecting contrition, but under the circumstances it seemed possible that self-examination might feature on the menu. Once a lazy pasture for moderate Republicans hurtled into the private sector by Gerald Ford’s 1976 defeat, AEI has turned in recent years into a kind of Cheney family think-tank. It had not been a good week, year, or second term for any of these people and I thought a few cocktails might cause them to consider their predicament.

This was fantasy on my part. From the stage, one took no hint that matters were not working out as anticipated. All rose to salute the arrival of Mr and Mrs Cheney, herself a longtime fellow at the institute. The vice-president looked on from the head table as his friend, Bernard Lewis, perhaps the most significant intellectual influence behind the invasion of Iraq, came up to accept an award.

In his address, the 90-year-old Mr Lewis did not revisit his argument that regime change in Iraq could provide the jolt needed to modernise the Middle East. Instead, he spoke about the millennial struggle between Christianity and Islam. Mr Lewis argues that Muslims have adopted migration, along with terror, as the latest strategy in their “cosmic struggle for world domination”. This is a familiar framework from the original author of the phrase “the clash of civilisations”. What did surprise me was Mr Lewis’s denunciation of Pope John Paul II’s 2000 apology for the crusades as political correctness run amok, which drew clapping. Mr Lewis’s view is that the Muslims started the trouble by invading Europe in the eighth century; the crusades were merely a failed imitation of Muslim jihad in an endless see-saw of conquest and reconquest.

Were one to start counting ironies here, where would one stop? Here was a Jewish scholar criticising the Pope for apologising to Muslims for a holy war against Muslims, which was also a massacre of the Jews. Here were the theorists of the invasion of Iraq, many of them also Jewish, applauding the notion that the crusades were not so terrible and embracing a time horizon that makes it impossible to judge their war an error. And here was the clubhouse of the neo-conservatives, throwing itself a lavish party when the biggest question in American politics is how to escape the hole they have dug.

But whether or not the neo-cons are prepared to face it, there are increasing signs that their moment is finally over. At the Defence department, Donald Rumsfeld has been replaced by Robert Gates, a member of the Iraq Study Group and an affiliate of the realist school associated with the previous President Bush. Paul Wolfowitz, the architect who wanted to build a new Middle East on Saddam’s rubble, has been moved to the World Bank, where he observes a Robert McNamara-like silence on the failure of his war. Another former Pentagon official, Douglas Feith, is under investigation for misrepresenting intelligence data to make the case for the invasion.

At the State department, Condoleezza Rice is returning to her realist roots and now actually seems to direct policy. She has embraced shuttle diplomacy in the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, is considering conversation with Syria and Iran and even made a nuclear deal with North Korea. These steps signify a broader shift away from what the neo-con defector Francis Fukuyama calls “hard Wilsonian” ideas and back towards the less principled, more effective pragmatism of Brent Scowcroft, former national security adviser, and James Baker, former secretary of state.

The most important sign of all is the fading influence of Mr Cheney, who for six years dominated foreign policy in a way no previous vice-president ever has. Mr Cheney is discredited, unwell and facing various congressional investigations. He was badly damaged by the Libby trial, which exposed his ruthless mania to justify a war gone wrong.

But the larger factor in Mr Cheney’s demise is that his neo-conservative hypotheses have been falsified by events. Invading Iraq did not catalyse a new Middle East; isolating North Korea advanced its nuclear programme; high-handed unilateralism has reduced American power. At the outset of his presidency, Mr Bush thought himself lucky to have a number two who did not aspire to his job. He may now grasp the hazard of lending so much power to someone with no incentive to test his views in the political marketplace.

As disciples of Bernard Lewis, it is unlikely Mr Cheney and the neo-con crusaders will apologise for what they have wrought. Like Mr Bush, they look to the long span of history for vindication. It will indeed be eons before anyone trusts them again.

“Regarding Bush, it is not only here on this blog that the “bitching” is high; it is all over America if you have already noticed. And as far as Israel is concerned, it is the Israeli public that is moaning and screaming louder than ever. Have you not checked the latest polls in Israel?”

Ford Prefect –

Thank you for pointing out an interesting phenomenon: The American and Israeli Left whine and bitch about the same thing as those here on Syria Comment:

George Bush and Israel

Of course when little things like the World Trade Center towers and Katyushas started falling*, the American and Israeli Leftist suddenly don’t have much to say.

A short time later, they once again find their convenient scape goats.

I’m not on that wavelength. I tend to blame those who are at fault.

Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism may have prevented the Arab world from achieving progress, but don’t expect it to hinder the West.

BTW – Don’t expect Hillary or some other two-faced democrat to become president come 2008.

*9-11 occurred BEFORE the US sent troops to Iraq or Afghanistan; 3000 Katyushas were fired against Israel AFTER Israel withdrew from Lebanon 6 years earlier

this transparentsyria.com is really of poor quality. it looks as if they used Google instant translation to arabic… even the comments feels like they have been filled by CIA agents.. 🙂

the quality of comments section in syriacomment has degraded. most of them are personal attacks and counter attacks. out of the 100 average comments, its hard to find more than a very few real contributions. 🙁

Alex , do you think this call from the US goverment is a way to compliment Syria for a fair election then taking the cridet for it.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack issued a statement urging Assad to allow full media coverage of the elections and permit independent monitors. “The United States is deeply concerned that the Syrian regime will again fail its people by not holding free and fair elections,”

Bitching and moaning about George Bush and Israel is (to put it lightly) common place on this forum.

Who can praise George Bush and Israel for a peaceful and successful policy around the world? You can’t boast Bush’s and Israel’s achievements, because there are no achievements. Simple as that Akbar.

The moral, military and political defeat USA has suffered during GB’s era demands at least two democratic presidents to be corrected. Israel has painted her self in a corner and it will loose the occupied areas – sooner or later.

Now, who would like to complain now about how Christians are being treated in Iraq?

Well, when Christian troops (what USA troops are) are raging around the country and the US Jewish / Christian “advisers” have created a constitution for Iraq which will only increase religious and ethnic tensions, what else do you Akbar could wait? On the other hand the Christians and Muslims in Israel and her occupied territories are constantly claiming that they are not treated well. Why Akbar? Only when you own “nest” is clean you have a moral foundation to criticize.

Sam, Alex, and SimoHurtta,
Let’s also explore how the world has also “bitched and moaned” against Israel and its militaristic and illegal behavior in the area. Between 1955 and 1992, the UN Security Council passed 66 resolutions against Israel with beginning statements like “deplores”, “censures”, and “determines flagrant violations,” for example. The US of course vetoed 34 of these resolutions that were adopted under Chapter VII. (If you are wondering what happened in 1992 and why the UN all of the sudden shifted, then remember these dates: September 11, 2001 and the establishment of the Russian Federation in March of 1992.)

Here is a telling ratio also related to why should anyone “bitch and moan” against the narrow US and Israeli policies: In just four years (2001-2005), the number of Israelis and Palestinians killed was 4 times larger than those killed in the preceding 9 years. Again, in just four years of the belligerent US/Israeli policies in the areas have produced 4 times the number of fatalities (just Israelis and Palestinians) than during the previous 9 years.

Suspense is killing us! This is what the victorious Ehud Olmert told Time Magazine on April First (can he not surprise Husnie Mubarak or King Abdullah or Mahmoud Abbas instead?):

“I can tell you that if I’d had an opportunity to meet with King Abdullah of the Saudis – which I have not – he would be very surprised to hear what I have to say,” Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said last week in an interview with Time magazine. “I look very favorably at the active role Saudis are now playing in the Middle East for many years,” Olmert said, calling the Saudi peace initiative “a very interesting approach.”

When pressed by interviewer Joe Klein to elaborate on what would surprise Abdullah, Olmert responded coyly, “If he reads about it in Time, he wouldn’t be surprised.”

Actually what he would tell King Abdullah is:

” I was joking man. Rice was here last week, if there was something I would have told her.I only said that to distract Israeli public opinion and to fend off the naieve Eropuean and American peace hopefulls”.

Lol! That was hysterical Ausamaa, thanks! This hapless Olmert, who enjoys an approval rating equals to the margin of error, is surprising only the Israelis with his inexperience, incompetence, and deadly arrogance. Not to mention the series of corruption charges ringing Israelis officials. Olmert and his government are incapable of delivering anything to the Israelis – let alone a bold peace.

By the way, Ausamaa, what’s up with Dr Rice’s shuttle diplomacy in the region? I understand the benefits of accumulating frequent flier miles, useful when she is kicked out of office soon, but what exactly has she accomplished during these trips? What exactly is she doing, saying, or performing?

I still can not make full sense of what is going on! It is a strange circus. Maybe this is the intent of all players.

Create Smookscreens. Keep everyone busy. Divert Everyone’s Attention till the dark clouds over DC, Tel Aviv and the Gulf hopefully blow away.
Then get the hell out of the Office and let the next guys worry about the mess!

Ausamaa,
I still maintain that what we are seeing today is a typical result of an incompetent and reckless administration in DC – who bluffed its way through London, Tel Aviv, and Baghdad – misleading everyone along that path. The Cheney administration is still baffled by the fact that its awesome military power has produced (and still producing) exactly the opposite results. They are bouncing between bad and terrible decisions that are forcing them to manufacture lies, deceit, and get many innocent people killed in the process. Remember the Mitchell Plan, the Road Map, and the Tenet Plan for resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict? The US administration is driven by ideologues who are as dangerous as all other ideologues in the world. It will be a tough two years, I am afraid.

The United States will be ready to launch a missile attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities as soon as early this month, perhaps “from 4 a.m. until 4 p.m. on April 6,” according to reports in the Russian media on Saturday.

Israel is closely monitoring preparations by Syria, Iran and Hezbollah for a U.S.-led war this summer, Military Intelligence chief Major-General Amos Yadlin said during a cabinet session on Sunday.

According to Yadlin, Iran and Syria believe that a war this summer will be initiated by the U.S. and that Israel will be involved. He said added that the Muslim forces’ preparations are defensive, and they are not expected to initiate the war.

“What we are seeing is their preparation for the possibility of war in the summer. My assessment is that they are defensive preparations for war,” Yadlin was quoted by a government official as saying, referring to Iran, Syria and Hezbollah.

“We are closely monitoring these preparations because [Iran, Syria and Hezbollah] could misinterpret various moves in the region,” Yadlin said, according to the official.

Yadlin noted that, as in the case of the 1967 Six-Day War, military conflict could erupt despite that fact that neither side is interested in war, because of “the involvement of many players.”

Regarding Hamas, Yadlin said that Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has warned that if the international financial embargo on Gaza is not lifted within three months, a third intifada will break out.

Yadlin added that there senior Hamas members that are displeased with the Saudi Arabian initiative, and that the military branch of Hamas has renewed its activity.

Meanwhile, U.S. House members meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad Sunday said they believed there was an opportunity for dialogue with the Syrian leadership.

The U.S. House members, who included Virginia Republican Frank Wolf, Pennsylvania Republican Joe Pitts and Alabama Republican Robert Aderholt, also said they had raised with Syrian officials the issue of stopping the alleged flow of foreign fighters from Syria to Iraq.

In a statement issued by the U.S. Embassy in Damascus, the congressmen said they had talked about ending support for Hezbollah and Hamas, recognizing Israel’s right to exist in peace and security, and ceasing interference in Lebanon.

“We came because we believe there is an opportunity for dialogue, the statement said. “We are following in the lead of Ronald Reagan, who reached out to the Soviets during the Cold War, it added.”

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will convey a message to Syria from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that Israel is interested in peace if Damascus stops supporting terrorism, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s spokeswoman said Sunday

In his briefing to the Israeli cabinet Sunday, April 1, Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, AMAN chief, reported that Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas expect the United States to attack Iran in the summer and they are preparing to retaliate by going to war with Israel. In Yadlin’s view, a proliferation of players and a many imponderables could ignite a conflict, which none of the parties wants – as happened in the Six Day War of 1967.

1. His comments came one day after Iran’s chief of staff, Gen. Hassan Fayrouz Abadi, urged the Arabs to hurry up and join Iran in a defense treaty because, he claimed, Israel threatened a war offensive in summer, two months hence. According to the Iranian general, Israel was bent on a “suicide assault” against a number of Arab states to save the Americans from having to pull their troops out of Iraq (sic).

1. Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas may be presumed to be acting on some piece of intelligence that point to a forthcoming US attack some time between April and early September 2007. Therefore, the Middle East faces at least five months of incendiary military instability during with everyone braced for an axe to fall.

2. A coordinated Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah-Hamas attack would lay Israel open to four warfronts and the common weapon to them all: missiles – anti-tank, short-range surface, medium range ballistic and surface-to-air.

3. Hamas threatens to launch the third Palestinian uprising (intifada) against Israel within three months unless the international blockade is lifted and funds are released to the Palestinian Authority.

The cabinet was informed that the IDF would start operating behind Gazan lines against the massive Palestinian military build-up.

For five months, the Olmert government’s policy was one of military restraint at the behest of US and European governments. This week, Israel’s leaders watched British discomfiture as the United States, the UN and the Europeans turned aside when asked for help to free 15 sailors seized by Iran in the Persian Gulf. It is obvious that Israel must be ready to stand alone and defend itself if attacked on four fronts.

4. Neither the chief of AMAN nor the ministers discussed the state of Israel’s armed forces’ preparedness. Asked about this, DEBKAfile’s military sources said their readiness was only partial as yet: The air force, some of the combat divisions are ready; other parts of the military, such as some reservist brigades, the Navy and the home front are not.
“

“Roger that. The ramifications are going to be dire, unfortunately, and for decades to come.”

I’ve heard the above statement through EVERY recent US administration:

Carter, Reagen, Bush Sr., Clinton, Bush Jr.

And what in G-d’s name did the Left-of-Center President Jimmy “Palestine Peace no Apartheid” Carter do to cause Iran to take 66 hostages at the US Embassy there?

And now we’re back with the Iranian govenment taking hostages. Nothing has changed in 28 years, except that the Islamic Fundamentalists have more power and are threatening more countries.

I sure hope our savy Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi has some answers. It would be nice to remind Nancy that with terrorists, there is always an excuse, always an enemy, always a disregard for human rights. But my instict tells me she doesn’t get it.

Actually you are correct, AP. Little has changed in the last 30 years. In fact, if anything, things went backward and more people have lost their lives. The sad fact, however, is that this US administration and the Likud/Kadima have yet to learn from the past. If they think they can unilaterally change the status quo via military adventurism, reality has a nice surprise for them. It is not working and will never work.

This is alarming. If half the Christians of Lebanon are seriously considering leaving the country, Lebanon will suffer. Who will pay that almost 50 Billion dollar debt? and What kind of new balance will Lebanon seek? …

I hope Israel and America (and others who care for Lebanon’s stability) can think long term, next time they play Lebanese politics.

Lebanon is not much different than Syria. Were EU and US embassies to offer young Syrians immigration visas, I think many of them will be leaving in droves. This alarming trend has been in place for years and way before this US Administration arrived. In the case of Christians the problem is simply magnified for a host of additional reasons.

I am seeing Lebanese and Syrian expats day in and day out. Immigration is there for sure. But I will take the figures above with a pinch of salt. The 72% Syrian youth migration figure (whatever it means), I will take with a “ton” of salt! But again, I do not have the figures.

As for the “urge” to leave if a US or an EU Visa was availlable, this is a trend that is prevelant -and has been since any of us can remember- across the whole MENA if not the whole world, and is not execlusively reserved for Syrians and Lebanese.

We are a well to do family, but still, I have a sister who recently immigrated to Canada, and another who just went to Australia (for ten days!)to get her immigrant visa stamped and then returned to her cushy job in the UAE. With their families.

Not to take away from a bad situation, but not to blow it out of proportion too.

The only fools are the Israelies, they should be the first to seek such visas to the US and the EU. Who in his right mind would like to live next to Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi??!! And as an full fledged enemy to all of them no less ! Not me if was in their shoes. Land of Milk and Honey or not!

Itzik: Pelosi’s trip to Syria could sway it to abandon ‘axis of evil’
By News Agencies

Acting President Dalia Itzik on Sunday defended U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned visit to Syria, a trip the White House had attempted to dissuade her from taking.

Pelosi, speaking at a dinner hosted by Itzik at the Knesset building, said she would raise with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad the issue of captive Israel Defense Forces soldiers Ehud Goldwasser, Eldad Regev and Gilad Shalit.

“Your expected visit to Damascus has naturally touched off a political debate in your country, and of course, here,” Itzik said in televised remarks.

“I believe in your worthy intentions. Perhaps a step, seen as unpopular at this stage … will clarify to the Syrian people and leadership they must abandon the axis of evil [and] stop supporting terrorism and giving shelter to [terrorist] headquarters,” said Itzik, a member of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s Kadima party.

Pelosi will convey a message to Syria from Olmert that Israel is interested in peace if Damascus stops supporting terrorism, an Israeli official said Sunday.

Pelosi met Sunday with Olmert and the families of the abducted IDF soldiers, as part of a Middle East tour that has drawn criticism from the White House because of a planned stop in Syria.

“Pelosi is conveying that Israel is willing to talk if they [Syria] would openly take steps to stop supporting terrorism,” Olmert spokeswoman Miri Eisin said. “But at this point the Syrian government, by openly backing terror all around the Middle East, is not a partner for negotiations.”

Pelosi held talks on Sunday with Olmert in a closed meeting.

On Sunday night, Pelosi spoke at a dinner for in the Knesset building, and told lawmakers that America remains strongly behind their country.

“Americans have many political differences, but we stand united with Israel now and always,” she said.

Her speech was uniformly supportive of Israel, and she received a standing ovation at the end.

She said that Iran must not be allowed to get a nuclear weapon and called for the disarming of Hezbollah, which fought a war with Israel last summer. She also expressed fears that instability in Iraq will encourage Israel and America’s enemies.

Pelosi was not expected to make any statements that would go against U.S. President George W. Bush’s staunch support for Israel.

“She will talk about Congress’ commitment to Israel’s security,” said Nadeam Elshami, a spokesman for the delegation said before the speech. The group was also discussing in meetings with Israelis the continued cooperation between the two countries, he said.

Pelosi has irked Bush over her decision to include Syria in the tour. The White House had last week called Pelosi’s stop in Syria a bad decision since the administration considers the Arab country a supporter of terrorism.

U.S. Presidential counselor Dan Bartlett said Sunday that the White House had asked Pelosi not to go to Syria.

“We did not believe it would advance the diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. I think most Americans would not think that the leader of the Democratic Party in the Congress should be meeting with the heads of a state sponsor of terror,” he said on CBS’ Face the Nation.

Pelosi’s trip with six other lawmakers also includes stops in the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

The California Democrat is traveling with a delegation that includes Rep. Keith Ellison, the first Muslim member of Congress.

The Minnesota Democrat is scheduled Monday to meet with the mufti of Jerusalem, Muhammed Hussein, at the Al Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem’s Old City. Ellison said Saturday that his presence – as a Muslim – on the trip sent a message to Israelis and Palestinians that people can come together. “Reconciliation is possible,” he said.

Also on Sunday, Pelosi’s delegation met with the families of three abducted Israel Defense Forces soldiers captured this summer, one along the Gaza Strip and two on the border with Lebanon.

The group Saturday toured Jerusalem holy sites on Saturday and met with Vice Premier Shimon Peres.

Pelosi’s visit to Israel is her second trip to the Middle East since she took over leadership of the House in January and is an indication she plans to play a role in foreign policy.

Other representatives traveling with Pelosi and Ellison included Henry Waxman and Tom Lantos of California, Louise Slaughter of New York, Nick Rahall of West Virginia, and Ohio Republican David Hobson.

Israel’s political and military leadership has been preparing in recent weeks for the possibility of a Syrian attack on the Golan Heights that will start as a result of a “miscalculation” on the part of the Syrians, who may assume that Israel intends to attack them.

Israel, however, has delivered a calming message, and has no plans to attack its northern neighbor.

According to information Israel received, the Syrians are concerned that the United States will carry out an attack against Iran’s nuclear installations in the summer, and in parallel Israel would strike Syria and Lebanon.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who visited IDF forces in the North last week, heard an intelligence assessment and was informed of the dangers of a Syrian “miscalculation.”

Following his visit to the forces in the field, a decision was made to publicly address the concerns of a possible deterioration with the Syrians, and to send a message that Israel has no intention of attacking Syria, nor is there any coordinated plan with the U.S. for a joint attack against Iran.

The speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, is scheduled to meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus on Monday, and will deliver a message of calm from Israel.

“We hope the message will be understood,” political sources in Israel said Sunday. “The question is whether Assad is looking for an excuse … so that he can carry out an attack against Israel in the summer, or whether this is a mistaken assessment.”

Pelosi visited Israel on Sunday and told her Israeli interlocutors that the country must speak with Assad and that the door should not be closed to Syria, even though she is aware that Syria supports terrorism and continued cooperation with Iran.

The Democratic congresswoman was critical of the Republican administration’s policy of boycotting Damascus.

Her statements hinted that if the Democrats regained control of the White House in 2008, they will work toward renewing dialogue with Syria.

The chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Tom Lantos, who accompanied Pelosi, said Assad should be given a final opportunity to disengage from the “axis of evil.”

According to Lantos, in a few years, Sunni Muslims and not Iran under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be in control in the region, and it is to the advantage of Damascus to know which side to be on.

In a holiday interview with Haaretz, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert also commented on the assessments of a possible “war in the summer.”

“The Syrians, according to their statements and those of others recently,” Olmert said, “appear to be saying that there is an American plan to attack Iran in the summer, and at the same time, and in coordination with Israel, to also attack Syria and Lebanon.”

“I can tell you that there is no such plan that we know about, and in any case, there is no reason for the Syrians to prepare for such an eventuality. There is always concern that when one side prepares for war, and the other side is preparing to counter the other side’s preparations, then the first side interprets the preparations of the other side as if it is the manifestation of its fears, and the situation goes into a spin, and control is lost.

“We have no intention to attack the Syrians,” Olmert said, “we prefer to make peace with the Syrians, but it is a fact that the army is carrying out very intensive training in all systems, all branches, all units, in all areas, and it will continue doing so as part of its annual plans, and it will be ready for any eventuality – including the possibility of what is called miscalculation … But we take into account everything, and hope that the things that should not happen, do not happen.”

On Sunday, Olmert denied reports of a planned coordinated offensive in which the U.S. would attack Iran and Israel would hit Syria and Lebanon at the same time.

During a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Olmert dismissed the idea of a summer offensive, calling it “a plan we don’t know of. It is baseless, and an unfounded rumor with no foundation. I hope no one will operate on the basis of unfounded rumor to create a move that would have no reason to drag us into a conflict.”

The prime minister’s denial came hours after Yadlin told a cabinet session on Sunday that Israel is closely monitoring preparations by Syria, Iran and Hezbollah for a U.S.-led war this summer.

According to Yadlin, Iran and Syria believe that a war this summer will be initiated by the U.S. and that Israel will be involved. He said that the preparations were defensive, adding that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah were not expected to initiate the war.

“What we are seeing is their preparation for the possibility of war in the summer. My assessment is that they are defensive preparations for war,” Yadlin was quoted by a government official as saying, referring to Iran, Syria and Hezbollah.

“We are closely monitoring these preparations because [Iran, Syria and Hezbollah] could misinterpret various moves in the region,” Yadlin said, according to the official.

Yadlin noted that, as in the case of the 1967 Six-Day War, military conflict could erupt despite that fact that neither side is interested in war, because of “the involvement of many players.”

Regarding Hamas, Yadlin said that Haniyeh has warned that if the international financial embargo on Gaza is not lifted within three months, a third intifada will break out.

Yadlin added that there senior Hamas members that are displeased with the Saudi Arabian initiative, and that the military branch of Hamas has renewed its activity.

Meanwhile, U.S. House members meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad Sunday said they believed there was an opportunity for dialogue with the Syrian leadership.

The U.S. House members, who included Virginia Republican Frank Wolf, Pennsylvania Republican Joe Pitts and Alabama Republican Robert Aderholt, also said they had raised with Syrian officials the issue of stopping the alleged flow of foreign fighters from Syria to Iraq.

In a statement issued by the U.S. Embassy in Damascus, the congressmen said they had talked about ending support for Hezbollah and Hamas, recognizing Israel’s right to exist in peace and security, and ceasing interference in Lebanon.

“We came because we believe there is an opportunity for dialogue, the statement said. “We are following in the lead of Ronald Reagan, who reached out to the Soviets during the Cold War,” it added.

Alex , about the debt of Lebanon and who will pay back , how about the people who stole that money (the Harreri clan)

sometime i wonder about the intelegence of our American reresenatives like Pelosi (why couldn’t she ask Olmert about leaving the Golan and other Arab lands as per international law that we love in return for no resitence or death to anybody.apparently they continue to want to disarm Syria and it’s freinds so Israel can impose the solution that it likes.I do not think that Syria in a mode of giving anything without clear intention to leave the Golan , they tried that in 1990.not with this Asad.

And now we’re back with the Iranian govenment taking hostages. Nothing has changed in 28 years, except that the Islamic Fundamentalists have more power and are threatening more countries.

Actually USA has now started again this hostage taking, by detaining Iranian diplomats in Iraq and holding them for months (naturally without trial as usual). Both Iraq and Iran have demanded these “hostages” to be freed. Naturally it is most certain that some Iranian diplomats in Iraq have military / intelligence service background, but so have many US diplomats around the world. US embassy for example in Helsinki is full of CIA operatives and during the Cold War they financed, equipped and armed Finnish extremists groups. That is is a historical fact, not anti Americanism.

When USA has thrown the rulebooks during Bush’s regime in the garbage can, how on earth can it demand others to follow the rules?

In the last 28 years things have gone “forward”. USA has armed and trained Muslim fundamentalists in Afghanistan and Bosnia. Only when they turned against USA, they became a problem. 🙂

I sure hope our savy Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi has some answers. It would be nice to remind Nancy that with terrorists, there is always an excuse, always an enemy, always a disregard for human rights. But my instict tells me she doesn’t get it.

History will repeat as scheduled.

History would not repeat if GIVING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEED OF TERRORISM would be seen more dangerous and negative as terrorism in it self. “Terrorists” do not plant bombs in Israel for fun. There is a rational reason for that military strategy. Even the Akbars of the world can understand that there would be no terrorism in Israel if the differences would be settled. Israelis stopped using terrorism as a military strategy when they got the areas they wanted. Before that terrorism was widely used by the Jews. Claiming that Jews had not used terrorism in forming Israel is “anti-Semitic”.

By the way Akbar what are the human rights for Christians and Muslims in Israel and her occupied areas? Do you really in earnest claim that all under Israeli rule are equal and have same human rights?

Why are you Akbar so negative against peace efforts? Pelosi and other rational people try to solve the “Israel” problem. You should be glad that this problem of violence could be solved, if it is peace you want. As an American taxpayer you should also be happy that if Pelosi and others manage to save huge amounts of future taxes in help to Israel, by helping to end this long chapter in history. That would be a real tax reduction or would help to build walls around New Orleans instead of building walls with US money on occupied territories.

“It involves escalating attacks on Syria’s human rights record, which is generally regarded as abysmal, as well as White House-approved support for Syrian bloggers and election monitors inside and outside the country to highlight the nation’s lack of freedom, the officials and others said.”

Since that kind of support is a usual US intelligence method for helping to fix weaker nation’s elections, it’s utterly the kiss of death. It happened in Cuba, it’s happened all through Latin America, it’s happened all through the MidEast.

Hence, it’s completely impossible at this late stage that the White House doesn’t know better. They’re deliberately labeling Syrian democracy activists and bloggers and so on as US stooges hoping the Syrians will crack down on THEM the way Cuba did on the journalists and bloggers who went to US-funded and US military and intelligence connected journalism seminars and hobnobbed with American Castro-haters before the enormous Cuban crackdown of a few years ago.

In Iran, the US was a little more devious, perhaps, alternating labeling the reform people “on our side” while at the same time saying publicly that no matter who was in power in Iran, the US was going to impose sanctions on Iran and in every way work against them for being evil. In essence, they created both ends of the Cuban situation in a very short time.

None of this reflects any interest in human rights or democracy, indeed, it’s an attempt to stamp out what little there is, wherever it is, and score points and create a figleaf of world concern to operate behind.

Pelosi was so cordial and smart so as to not repeat the original Israeli version of the Olmert’s message which included the condition “that Syria ceases its support of Terrosists”!

And she was “very pleased” with Assad’s assurances! Not that she noted, or that she was informed, or heard, or welcomed, or satisfied. No; Very Pleased, no less. Maybe she has to retract or correct something once our cousins start blowing the whistle, but its enough for sarters:

” Our meeting with the president enabled us to communicate a message from Prime Minister Olmert that Israel was ready to engage in peace talks,” Pelosi told reporters in Damascus after talks with Assad.

Pelosi said Assad in turn assured her of his willingness to engage in peace talks with Israel.

“We were very pleased with the assurances we received from the president that he was ready to resume the peace process,” Pelosi said. “He’s ready to engage in negotiations for peace with Israel.”

Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Syria implicitly conveys the message that should bush and cheney (they don’t to be capitalized) be impeached, her administration would be more willing to go the diplomatic route in mideast affairs.

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