That is the question
Democrats are debating presently. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is correct:
impeachment is, at the least, premature.

That being the case, I
was stunned when The Atlantic, a generally sober magazine and one of my
favorites, published a major article by Yoni Appelbaum in its March issue
advocating impeachment now, which was as flawed with specious arguments and as
misguided as anything I have ever read in the magazine. Very disappointing.

Basically, Appelbaum’s
argument is that we should begin the impeachment process now because Trump is already
impeachable based on what we already know, and that even if it is not
successful, it will gum up the political works, and impede Trump’s political
agenda.

First, impeachment is
far too serious an issue to play fast and loose with. That is simply
irresponsible governance. And, our legislature is already dysfunctional enough.
We need to get serious about restoring it, not making it worse.

Second, it is obvious
that Trump’s base, and therefore Republican legislators, don’t care what Trump
has done so far. They have sold their souls to him, so impeachment on the basis
of what we know now is bound to fail, waste everyone’s time, and diminish the
gravity of the process.

Impeachment, if it ever
occurs, will have to await the findings of Robert Mueller’s investigation,
which may or may not produce evidence sufficient to warrant it, or the product
of investigations now beginning in the House. My own expectation is that Trump
will survive the Mueller investigation, unless it produces some really
egregious crime, and maybe even then.

I expect, however, that
the investigations by House committees will be so aggressive that they will
drive Trump from office ultimately. They, and the weight of the Mueller
investigation, will cause Trump to quit, or lose re-election.

So, I don’t expect Trump
to be impeached. I expect he will likely go to jail after he leaves office,
based on his various financial crimes, rather than anything political. Trump
brought this on himself by shining bright light on his personal life by running
for president. It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
r