question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

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In Utah, California and Wyoming, raging rivers caused by heavy winter snowfall – record snowfall in some cases – have overflowed their banks and are expected to remain extremely dangerous for several more weeks.

The rampaging rivers have claimed the lives of at least 21 people across the America’s West so far this season.

With such hazardous conditions, officials have closed sections of rivers popular with swimmers, rafters and fishing enthusiasts.

“The force of that water pounds people into rocks and sends them over waterfalls,” said Eric LaPrice, a U.S. Forest Service district ranger at the Giant Sequoia National Monument in central California.

13 June 2017 – Several daily low temperatures and rainfall records were set yesterday across central and northern Nevada. On the same day, the state’s mountainous regions received an estimated 6 – 12 inches (15 – 30 cm) of snow.

The rare winter-like storm hit parts of California and Nevada on July 11 and 12, 2017, dumping measurable snow on Lake Tahoe on the California/and Nevada border.

Three locations recorded daily low max temperatures:

Elko Airport new record: 45 °F (7.2 °C)
Old record of 56 °F (13.3 °C) was set in 1970

Eureka Airport new record: 52 °F (11.1 °C)
Old record of 55 °F (12.8 °C) was set in 2010

Tonopah Airport:
Tied old record of 62 °F (16.7 °C) set in 1998

Winnemucca Airport new record: 50 °F (10 °C)
Old record of 58 °F (14.4 °C) was set in 1923

Record daily low temperature was measured at:

Tonopah Airport new record: 34 °F (1.1 °C).
Old record of 37 °F (2.8 °C) was set in 1980.

Also, two stations reported record daily precipitation and measurable snow was reported for the first time at Elko and Ely airports.

A team of scientists – aboard an icebreaker, mind you! – had to abandon their expedition because of hazardous ice conditions. Ice chunks measured 16 to 26 feet (5 to 8 m) thick.

The “very icy conditions” were caused by climate change, says the group’s leader.

Photo courtesy Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans

12 Jun 2017 – About 40 scientists were using the icebreaker CCGS Amundsen for a 133-day expedition across the Arctic, part of a $17-million, four-year project to look at the effects of climate change.

They began their trip on May 25 in Quebec City, but due to bad ice conditions off the coast of Newfoundland, the icebreaker was diverted to help ferries and fishing boats stuck in the ice. Some had even took on water.

‘Very severe ice conditions’

According to the Canadian Coast Guard, the conditions were unlike anything ever seen before in the area.

“It was just extreme ice conditions that required everything that we’ve got in order to make sure we were able to provide the services,” said Julie Gascon, the coast guard’s assistant commissioner for the central and Arctic region.

Strong northeastern winds started packing in ice in late April and never stopped, said Gascon. The result was sea ice conditions treacherous for even an icebreaker to navigate.

“We never had any issues in the past of this nature,” she said. “Very severe ice conditions.”

According to David Barber, a climate change scientist at the University of Manitoba and leader of the expedition, the thick, dense ice had traveled down from the High Arctic.

“It’s very much a climate-change driven phenomenon,” said Barber. “When you reduce the extent of the ice and reduce the thickness of it, it becomes more mobile.”

The warming action can loosen ice and broken icebergs can travel long distances on ocean currents, said Barber.

Former Vice President Al Gore is now telling his climate disciples that God commands us to go forth and fight global warming.

While promoting his new global warming film “An Inconvenient Sequel,” Gore compared the fight against global warming to a religious-based, moral crusade similar to the civil rights fight, women’s suffrage, and the abolitionist movement during the Civil War era.

An unseasonably strong late Spring storm will produce significant snowfall across the Western Wyoming Mountains late tonight and into Tuesday.

…Late Season Accumulating Snow Expected for Western Wyoming Late tonight and Tuesday…

The low pressure center will be tracking northeast across Yellowstone Park tonight. This low will be producing numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening. Sharply colder moisture laden air will be circulating around the back side of this low as the low tracks northeast into Montana. This much colder air will lower snow levels all the way down to the valley floor at times by Tuesday morning.

Snow amounts will likely range anywhere from from 4 to 12 inches above 7500 feetalong with some isolated amounts of up to 14 inches in the Tetons by Tuesday evening. 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected to accumulate in the Western Wyoming Valleys by Tuesday before melting off Tuesday afternoon.

The National Weather Service in Riverton has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Teton and Gros Ventre Range, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Tuesday.

* TIMING…Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will begin to mix with snow between 6 and 9 pm this evening.

The showers and thunderstorms will transition to more of a steady precipitation after midnight. The precipitation should be all snow after 12 midnight tonight.

Snow, heavy at times will continue through the day Tuesday.
* TOTAL SNOWFALL…6 to 12 inches in the Tetons along with
isolated amounts of 14 inches. 4 to 11 inches on the Gros
Ventre Range.

* MAIN IMPACT…Highway 22 over Teton Pass will likely become
slick and snow covered. 20 to 30 mph winds along with 40 mph
gusts could produce blowing and drifting snow. Wind chills will
likely be as low as 15 to 25 degrees in exposed areas.

Founder of the Weather Channel very effectively shuts down CNN host Brian Stelter.

Coleman points out that 31,000 scientists have signed a petition saying the global warming “consensus” is not valid.

Coleman tells Stelter that “CNN has taken a very strong position on global warming that it is a consensus. Well there is no consensus in science. Science isn’t a vote. Science is about facts.” You hear all this alarmism about heat waves and drought, but they’re not happening.

Says he is “terribly disappointed” by his former network, The Weather Channel, because it “has bought into [climate change].

Here’s a longer segment of the above interview:

Coleman produced a special report for KUSI-TV, entitled Global Warming: The Other Side. The program suggests that Global Warming is a scam and presents what Coleman contends is evidence of a deliberate manipulation of world temperature data by NASA and other groups.

“Please. What would really impact our planet’s habitats, wildlife and scenic vistas are the millions of wind turbines and solar panels the world would need to generate expensive, intermittent electricity – if we abandoned the oil, natural gas and coal that still provide 80% of America’s and the world’s energy. And for all that, at best we would get an undetectable 0.2 degrees C (0.3 F) less warming by 2100 … IF plant-fertilizing carbon dioxide actually does drive climate change and extreme weather.

“Generating just 20% of US electricity with wind power would require some 185,000 1.5-MW turbines, up to 18 million acres of land, and 245 million tons of concrete, steel, copper, fiberglass and rare earth metals. Multiply that times global needs, and you get the picture.”

In the wake of President Trump’s exit from the Paris climate treaty, reactions from other quarters were predictably swift, nasty, sanctimonious and hypocritical.

Al Gore paused near one of the private jets he takes to hector lesser mortals to say the action will bring “a global weather apocalypse.” Billionaire Tom Steyer got rich selling coal but called the President’s action “a traitorous act of war.” Actor-activist Mark Ruffalo railed that Trump has “the death of whole nations on his hands.” Michael Moore said the action was “a crime against humanity.” Former President Obama said it threatened “the one planet we’ve got” (to say nothing of what’s left of his executive orders legacy).

Widespread green energy poverty

In truth, President Trump’s bold decision underscores the ill-informed science, economics, ethics and energy politics that have driven climate cataclysm caterwauling for decades. His exit decision, his insistence that NATO members pay their agreed dues for defending Europe, the impacts of widespread green energy poverty, and the hard economic and environmental realities of wind, solar and biofuel “alternatives” to fossil fuels will likely awaken other leaders – and persuade other nations to Exit Paris.

Of the 28 NATO members, only the US, UK, Poland, Estonia and Greece have met their defense spending commitments, leaving a shortfall of $134 billion a year and compelling the United States to shoulder over 65% of the alliance’s total defense spending. Germany and some other members have now grudgingly agreed to increase their payments, in response to President Trump’s request, Russia’s actions in Crimea, Georgia and elsewhere – and growing threats of Islamist terrorism.

In the wake of London, Manchester, Brussels, Paris, Orlando, San Bernardino, Fort Hood, Twin Towers and countless other attacks, it is ludicrous to claim supposedly manmade, allegedly dangerous climate change is the world’s biggest worry. It’s totally unrealistic to imagine that NATO members can pay their fair share for defending Europe and thenpay what the Paris Treaty expects for the Green Climate Fund, while shackling their economies with job-killing renewable energy policies, and spending billions on welfare for unemployed workers and migrant families from the Middle East.

The Paris climate formula provides that GCF payments are to start at $100 billion per year, of which the US share would have been $23.5 billion. Former UN Framework Convention on Climate Change executive secretary Christiana Figueres has suggested that $450 billion a year by 2030 would be appropriate, Competitive Enterprise Institute energy and climate director Myron Ebell points out.

Replacing free enterprise with global governance

Ms. Figueres has also said the UN has “given itself” the task of replacing the free enterprise capitalism economic model with a global governance system. Her colleague Ottmar Edenhofer bluntly stated that the real goal of UN climate policies is redistributing the world’s wealth – in $450-billion-a-year increments.

Developing Countries and kleptocratic leaders demanded this windfall to join Paris. Their enthusiasm over staying in Paris is likely to reflect now-rich nation declining excitement about paying into the Fund, even though the treaty does not obligate DCs to reduce fossil fuel use or emissions until at least 2030.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel gamely said she will now work “more than ever” to “save our planet.” A number of US cities and states pledged to remain committed to treaty obligations. How exactly will they do that? Will they pay billions into the Fund – and blanket their lands with enough wind, solar and biofuel installations to be completely renewable in three decades? Build more of the only CO2-free electricity sources that are reliable and affordable: nuclear and hydroelectric facilities?

Most of these national, state and local leaders oppose nuclear and hydroelectric as strongly as they detest fossil fuels – and the states and cities are already burdened by soaring electricity prices and government debt. Virtually none have considered the gargantuan costs of this “energy transition” – or the fact that total global adherence to the Paris Treaty would prevent an undetectable 0.2 degrees C (0.3 F) of warming by 2100. Their own self-aggrandizing efforts would prevent perhaps 0.01 degrees. (And that assumes carbon dioxide is the primary factor in climate change, instead of changes in solar energy output, cosmic rays, ocean circulation and numerous other natural forces that actually control Earth’s climate.)

The United States and world still depend on oil, natural gas and coal for 80% of their total energy needs. More than 53,000 US wind turbines still supply only 2% of the nation’s total energy; thousands of acres of photovoltaic solar panels supply barely 0.3% of US energy; corn ethanol from 40 million acres (equal to Iowa or to Austria and the Czech Republic combined) supplies just 5% of its transportation fuels.

Land and raw material requirements for wind turbines underscore the true impacts of renewable energy.

Between 2010 and 2015, global electricity consumption grew by more than 2 billion megawatt-hours (2,000 terawatt-hours). Meeting just this demand growth of 400 million mWh per year (not total global electricity demand) solely with wind energy would require installing some 100,000 new turbines every year (generating electricity 25% of the time), as nations continue to electrify their far-flung communities.

Thankfully, African and Asian countries are actually doing so by building “mere” hundreds of new coal- and natural gas-fueled power plants, to generate abundant, reliable, affordable electricity for their people. Converting the entire planet to constantly fluctuating, unreliable, expensive, subsidized wind power would require trillions of dollars, hundreds of millions of acres, and incalculable raw materials.

To call this “clean” energy, “sustainable” power or “environmental justice” is simply perverse.

Industry and other data suggest that generating just 20% of US electricity with wind power would require some 185,000 1.5-MW turbines, 19,000 miles of new transmission lines, up to 18 million acres, and 245 million tons of concrete, steel, copper, fiberglass and rare earths – plus fossil-fuel back-up generators for the 75% of the year that the wind is barely blowing and the turbines are not producing electricity.

Now consider where all these raw materials must come from, how they must be extracted from the Earth and turned into finished products, and how much (mostly fossil fuel) energy that requires. Concrete is made from limestone, silica, alumina, iron, clay, fly ash, gypsum and gravel. Steel requires iron, nickel, chromium, manganese, carbon and molybdenum. Fiberglass is composed of silica, other minerals and petroleum. These materials and copper are mined in countries all across the planet.

Nearly all rare earth metals come from Mongolia, and lithium for batteries (to store the turbines’ electrical output) from the Democratic Republic of Congo, under horrid to nonexistent environmental, health and child labor standards. Their toxic and radioactive wastes are turning vast areas into desolate wastelands.

Those are enormous impacts – and wind turbines require some 100-200 times more raw materials per megawatt of electricity actually generated than modern hypercritical coal or combined cycle gas turbine generators. Total energy inputs to manufacture, transport and install wind turbine components are also lopsided. Just imagine the land and resource needs if all electricity were wind-generated and all cars were electric. To call this “clean” energy, “sustainable” power or “environmental justice” is simply perverse.

Think back on the incredible energy technology advances since 1917 – from wood and coal in primitive stoves, furnaces and factories a century ago … to the coal and gas turbine generators, hydroelectric and nuclear power plants, high-tech transmission grids of today. Ponder the amazing advancements in medical, computer, communication and other technologies during the past century.

Wealth redistribution

Imagine what wonders our Ultimate Resource – our creative intellects – could invent over next century, if we have the freedom and capital to do so. If misguided climate change, wealth redistribution, renewable energy and global governance demands do not shackle those opportunities. If we’d stop giving decision-making authority to people who have never been in factories or on farms (much less worked there), and think food comes from grocery stores, electricity from wall sockets, “clean energy” from magic.

President Trump has been vilified for challenging “accepted wisdom” on NATO, terrorism, climate change, and the ability of wind and solar to power job creation and economic rejuvenation in the USA and other industrialized nations – and to enable poor families worldwide to take their rightful places among Earth’s healthy and prosperous people. History will prove him right.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power – Black death.

Areas of importance largely neglected are the solar wind speed , the global electrical circuit, and galactic cosmic rays . Actually they are all tied to one another.

When the solar wind decreases , the intensities of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) allowed into the atmosphere will increase, thus intensifying the global electrical circuit.

It has been shown through actual data on a short term basis (days) through the monitoring of Forbush decreases and SEP events – which stands for solar particle events – both of which originate from the sun , that the electrical circuit decreases following a Forbush decrease ( a lessening of galactic cosmic rays ) while it increases following an SEP event.

This has big implications for solar/climate relationships on a longer term basis because these day-today events have shown that when a FORBUSH DECREASE take place the global electrical circuit decreases. This results in a decrease in global cloud cover and a weakening of cyclonic systems, while the opposite follows an SEP event.

This can be applied to what happens to global cloud coverage and cyclonic systems over a long-term basis when the sun enters a prolonged solar minimum period of activity which lowers the solar wind. This allows more GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS to enter the earth’s atmosphere thereby increasing the strength of the global electrical circuit. This has been shown on a short term basis (through actual data ) to increase cloud coverage and strengthen cyclonic systems.

CRITERIA NEEDED

350km/sec or lower is needed for the solar wind speed in order to get Galactic Cosmic Ray counts high enough ( at least 6500 units ) which strengthens the global electrical circuit on a long term basis. This in turn promotes greater global cloud coverage and strengthens cyclonic systems. Higher albedo for sure, and perhaps more precipitation.

In the meantime EUV (100 units or less) /UV light is on the decrease which will effect the atmospheric circulation (more meridional ) and sea surface temperatures respectively.

All this will lead to global cooling

Getting back to the solar wind and it’s effects upon the climate: These two values are needed in my opinion which are again a solar wind speed sustained over months of less then 350km/sec and a resultant AP index over months of 5 or lower.

Solar irradiance will not be a major player in the changing of the climate. It may drop by .15% which would only contribute a .1c to maybe .2c to global cooling.

AS OF NOW GCR COUNTS HAVE BEEN ABOVE 6500 UNITS FOR A FEW MONTHS AND LOOK TO BE INCREASING. READING TODAY 6650 UNITS, AND THE SOLAR WIND HAS FINALLY STARTED TO COME DOWN RIGHT NOW AT 300KM/SEC ALONG WITH THE AP INDEX.

Will this persist and become more common place as we move forward? I say yes, and this should effect the climate by cooling it.
__________________________________________

A cool weather system will bring late season snow to the
mountains of northern California this weekend. Snow levels are
expected to drop to near 5000 feet late tonight into Sunday.

Although snow levels could be locally lower, the main snow
accumulations are expected above 5500 feet. There could be around
5-10 inches of snow across Lassen Park with 1-4 inches possible
over the Sierra. Motorists traveling across the Sierra on Sunday
should be prepared for winter driving conditions.

Western Plumas County/Lassen Park-
Including the cities of Chester and Quincy

“U.S. President Trump has called a spade a spade – and rightly so!”
– Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser

_____________________________

Turtles and Reality

By Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser

In the local environs several kinds of turtles are common, including Painted turtles, Map turtles, Snapping turtles, Stinkpots, and possibly others. On a sunny spring day, one can see several out of the water on a rock, trying to catch a ray of warm sunshine before diving back into the still cold water of perhaps 7 °C (45 °F).

It’s already the month of June and both air and water temperatures are well behind the seasonally adjusted “global warming = climate change = frying planet” conditions that were proclaimed by so many climate doomsters. They should come by soon, before the water freezes over again, a few feet deep, for months. Perhaps, it might help them to distinguish “carbon pollution” from real pollution — and facts from fiction.

After decades of research with billions of research funds spent, there is less scientific evidence than ever before of any linkage between carbon dioxide levels in the air and the global mean temperature, or the proclaimed “catastrophic” ocean level rise. Au contraire, increasingly the evidence points to CO2 as a global atmospheric cooling agent and some sea levels are even falling.

The so-called “carbon pollution” problem was and is nothing but a giant smoke screen for a “one-world” government under U.N. bureaucrat control with Socialist/Marxist-types à la G. Soros pulling the strings – foremost for their own benefit.

President Trump has called the cards and – just wait for a little while – the number of “carbon players” leaving this high-stakes game will be surprising. Some “rats” are already leaving the sinking ship of the warming doom. For example, Britain has stopped funding wind-power installations, Germany is using more (imported) coal than ever, the Visegrad-countries (Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary) are rebelling against the European Union (EU) ”climate protection” mandates, and so forth. Why should they embark on the EU missive to “decarbonize?”

Even Germany, probably the most ardent leader of that decarbonisation nonsense is burning a lot of coal for electric power generation. The only difference is that that it now is being imported from overseas, mostly from the USA. The U.S. coal miners will be pleased to hear that, the former German “Kumpels” less so.

Of course there are still Hold-Outs

Yes, there are still some hold-outs of the old order of “carbon-pollution-climate-religion” disciples. Among them the German Chancellor, who vowed to keep marching on her path to “reliable energy deprivation.” Just need to build more windmills etc. and all will be fine. Not to forget the human-powered freight tricycles they’ve been proposing.

Not surprisingly though, she is met with increasing opposition, even from her own party’s rank and file that are calling for an end to “moral blackmail” by climate research and a “farewell to unilateral German CO2 targets.”

Other notables in that hold-out league are countries like China that are constructing new coal-fired power plants at break-neck speed. They claim a need to catch up with the western world for another decade or two. So, they claim a free pass.

Yet other hold-outs thought they would get some of the $100 BILLION the dummies overseas would love to fork over to their potentates – of course all under UN guidance and supervision. Look at satellite pictures of all the “drowning” islands in the oceans. Look at their own government-produced population and growth figures, and look at their spiffy ads for exotic vacation places. For example, in 1999 the Pacific island nation Vanuatu had a population of approx. 193 thousand, in 2010 approx. 226, and currently 275 thousand. Similarly, in the Indian Ocean: The population of the Maldives grew in the same time span from 269 (in 2002) to 305 (in 2010) to currently 400 thousand inhabitants.

You’d be hard-pressed to find any evidence for the widely proclaimed “drowning islands” scenarios according to which their inhabitants are fleeing for their lives from rising sea levels. A few billion dollars though would just be fine to perpetuate the calamity stories. At least until everyone recognizes that they have been suckered in long enough.

Then, the islanders too will abandon the climate ship in a hurry and realize that the wind now blows from a different direction. – As any good sailor knows, the sails need to be adjusted to the changing wind. And that appears to be happening faster than many ever thought possible.

Hot Air is giving way to Climate Reality

President Trump’s decision to take the U.S. out of the Paris (2015) climate accord (not a “Treaty”) has provided a cool blast of reality to the issue. The hot air rhetoric of yesteryears’ climate models is being met with a breath of scientific reality. And that can be summarized, on a worldwide basis, in a few points as follows:

• Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant but a vital constituent of the atmosphere. Without it, all life on Earth would cease to exist.
Planet Earth is likely to experience some decades of global cooling due to declining sunspot activity.

• President Trump is to be congratulated for pulling the S. out of the Paris climate accord.

• The “anti-Paris” avalanche is just at its beginning.

_____________________________________________

Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser is a professional scientist with a Ph.D. in chemistry from the Technical University, Munich, Germany. He has worked as a research scientist and project chief at Environment Canada‘s Canada Centre for Inland Waters for over 30 years and is currently Director of Research at TerraBase Inc. He is author of nearly 300 publications in scientific journals, government and agency reports, books, computer programs, trade magazines, and newspaper articles.

Dr. Kaiser has been president of the International Association for Great Lakes Research, a peer reviewer of numerous scientific papers for several journals, Editor-in-Chief of the Water Quality Research Journal of Canada for nearly a decade, and an adjunct professor. He has contributed to a variety of scientific projects and reports and has made many presentations at national and international conferences.

“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free,” said Professor Peter Wadhams, head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at Cambridge University.

“Cold front could bring snow to Klamath this weekend,” reads the headline in the Medford Herald and News.

According to the National Weather Service, a low-pressure system entering the county Thursday morning will bring the snow level down to 4,700 feet by Saturday.

Areas like Bly, Chiloquin, Chemult and Gilchrist could see overnight snow Saturday and Sunday
The NWS forecast for Klamath Falls Intl Airport calls for a snow/rain mix on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Whatever does fall will melt pretty quickly, said Meteorologist Charlie Smith, with the weather service in Medford.

Klamath Falls is located about 25 miles north of the California border, and stands at about 4,100 feet elevation.

7 Jun 2017 – USA Today jokingly calls it “California’s endless winter.” However, with the lowest sunspot count in a hundred years, I don’t find the idea of an “endless winter” all that funny. That’s because I think we’re headed into a little ice age.

“Many mountains in the Rockies, Sierra and Cascades are packed with at least 8 feet of snow,” the article continues.

Did you notice the words “at least”? When you study this image from the National Weather Service, you will see that some areas still have MORE than 8 feet (2.44m) of snow on the ground.

USA Today calls it “a dream summer for skiers and snowboarders.” I fear it could mark the beginning of a nightmare.

California’s Mammoth Mountain ski area is enjoying its “best spring conditions in decades … and will be operating DAILY into August,” the resort brags on its website. This will be one of the ski area’s “longest seasons in history.”

Mammoth Mountain is not the only ski area in California that will remain open this summer. Squaw Valley ski resort says it too will be open all summer. See Tahoe Glacier Making a Comeback?

“The snowpack throughout the Sierra rivals, and in places exceeds, records set during the massive winter of 1982-83,” USA Today continues.

I look at that statement as a subtle way of downplaying the full import of the words.

If the snowpack “exceeds” previous records, wouldn’t that mean we’re talking about record snowfall?

Get a few years if record snowfall, and you have the makings of an ice age.

It doesn’t have to be colder, mind you, just more snowfall. They don’t call it a cold age, they call it an ice age.

Solar cycle 24 has seen very low solar activity, likely the lowest in 100 years.

Ap Index 1932 – 2017

When you look at the Ap Index from 1932 to 2017, you can see that the Sun’s magnetic output changed in 2004. Prior to that, there seemed to be a floor of activity at solar minima. In 2009 the Ap Index dropped far below that level, and has now dropped back to the previous floor. This even though Solar minimum is likely still three years away.

F10.7 flux

In a similar manner, the floor of activity for the F10.7 flux was presumed to be 64. However, the F10.7 flux shows that the Sun has declined from solar maximum to the current stage over the last 3½ years. Even though it is still presumably still three years to minimum, the Sun is now back to that level.