Barriers to electric car uptake

Viewpoint

Taking a deeper look at the electric car market, Craig Rice, Frazer Nash’s expert on the development of electric cars explores the barriers to entry in this arena and the biggest factors that could create a step change.

There is no denying that the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market has grown significantly in the past three years but sales are not rising as fast as many people predicted. This is not ground-breaking news as the numerous stories focusing on the low uptake of charging points attest to.

However, what is interesting to look at more deeply are the oft cited barriers to entry into the PEV market such as cost, fear of obsolescence and range anxiety, the last of which is the biggest issue by far. From here, we can examine the potential solutions and required innovations that could create a step change in usage and make PEV’s a more popular mode of transport.

Firstly, cost. PEVs are expensive compared to an equivalent sized vehicle using a normal, internal combustion engine (ICE). Currently, the Government offers up to £5,000 towards the cost of a PEV. A recent study by the Electric Power Research Institute indicates that, if this and other incentives are considered within the total lifetime costs, then the difference is within 10 per cent of a conventional vehicle. Furthermore, given the current trajectory of fuel prices, this comparison is set to swing in favour of the PEV in the long term.

As with the cost barrier, fear of obsolescence due to outdated technology is a valid reason for concern, but hardly a unique issue. Obsolescence in this sense can be expected on all white goods, IT equipment etc. However, as regards obsolescence of the PEV as a mode of transport, it just won’t happen. The global level of investment and political will is too high. Not only are the car making giants fighting for leadership in this strategically-crucial area, but so are the technically-savvy and automotive-oriented nations of the US, Germany and Japan. For example, America aims to put one million electric vehicles on its roads by 2015 and the UK Government’s vision is that by 2050 almost every car and van in the UK will be an ultra-low emission vehicle.

Most people’s everyday driving needs could be met by plug-in hybrids such as the Nissan Leaf, but many are put off by the expected difficulty of occasional longer trips

The majority of people’s day to day driving requirements match what the current generation of PEV’s have to offer. Studies have shown that between 70 and 80 percent of drivers in urban areas can easily use the 100 mile capacity that PEV’s have for their daily commute and small additional trips each day. However, when thinking of the exceptional journeys sometimes taken which exceed 100 miles, in the context of a limited charging network, eliminates the PEV as a valid choice for some.

Clearly then, technological advancements are one of the biggest challenges facing innovators in this field, with the majority setting their sights on the silver bullet of a 500 mile range. Current contenders in this field include Carbon Nanotube Electrode Lithium and Lithium Air Carbon.

”At some point in time, there will be a solution that effectively eliminates range anxiety for 99 per cent of people. The million dollar question is when and whether it will be economically viable

Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) are using layers of carbon nanotubes, to develop the Carbon Nanotube Electrode Lithium battery that can store and release more energy than a conventional lithium battery. The nanotubes used by MIT are commercially available, but are at least five years away from being fully developed into large scale production.

IBM is developing a lithium-air battery with the potential for far more energy density than current batteries. IBM says its battery can last much longer during a charge because it uses carbon electrodes in which the ions react with oxygen (think of it as a breathing battery). The battery technology, however, is not expected to be commercially available to electric car makers until 2020.Finally, to complicate the market further, the Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV) recognises that a portfolio of solutions will be required to decarbonise road transport and this is becoming a reality. For example, Toyota plans to launch a hydrogen fuel cell car next year.

At some point in time, there will be a solution that effectively eliminates range anxiety for 99 per cent of people. The million dollar question is when and whether it will be economically viable. In the meantime the focus needs to be squarely placed on the development of a universal charging network that’s as easy to use as our network of petrol stations. People need to know that they will be able to find a charging point quickly and easily when they need one, and that when they do it will be compatible with their car. This is simply not the case in the UK at the moment.

The current PEV marketplace is extremely fragmented. Firstly, there are multiple charger types, although type two is effectively becoming the standard. The long term goal of the British Electrotechnical and Allied Manufacturers Association (BEAMA) is for all future charge points to be multi-standard (direct current (DC) including CHAdeMO,CCS as well as Type2 and the BS1363 domestic socket for “legacy” vehicles etc.). Secondly, regionalised offerings and local government level schemes add complexity (in part due to OLEV’s plugged in places – PIP – scheme). Finally, there are many different manufacturers and providers operating in the space, many of whom are small agile companies that can move faster than bigger firms. Therefore, there is a case for stronger regulation to ensure that if identical charging devices can’t be delivered, then they should at least be fully adaptable.

Ensuring that the Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP) is utilised wherever possible, will be integral to the long term change needed. The OCPP is an application protocol for communication between EV charging stations and a charging station network which means customers can use multiple charging stations and networks can be easily formed.

”As it stands, only Estonia has managed to create a full electric infrastructure for its PEVs despite the level of attention this technology has

One of the most promising charging networks is the Charge your Car (CYC) network. Launched in 2010 as part OLEV’s PIP scheme, it is now a national network with over 1500 free-to-use or pay-to-use charge points. A single radio-frequency identification (RFID) card linked to a debit account provides access to all charge points on the network and allows people to pay for charging easily and quickly, much like the oyster card does for London travel. While this is convenient, it stops short of OLEV’s long term vision which is to enable people to charge using a credit or debit card at all public stations. This would radically improve accessibility and is being pushed forward with economic incentives – public charge point funding is only available where credit cards can be used.

As it stands, only Estonia has managed to create a full electric infrastructure for its PEVs despite the level of attention this technology has. Evidently then, the goal of a universal charging network is a long term one. There are a relatively large number of charge points that operate on modes one (slow domestic charge) to three (slow or fast charging using a specific EV socket-outlet as seen in most public charge points).

Currently, I believe the biggest need is for development of more mode four chargers (high power DC) along major trunk roads in the UK and in city centres. Mode four chargers can now take PEV batteries to 80 per cent in just 15 in minutes in some cases a greatly reduced time when compared to the slow domestic charges that would typically be done over a number of hours. Expanding the number of mode four chargers would mean that, on the odd occasion a PEV driver needs to make an exceptional journey, they would be able to recharge quickly and efficiently in their driving breaks. Indeed, BEAMA recommend opening up the mode four criteria to allow for a wider range of DC charging as lower power DC solutions can provide a very useful charge as well. Essentially, flexibility is high on the list for charging options.

In summary, it will take time to overcome both cost and fear of obsolescence in the minds of potential purchasers. The real issues are linked to range. Better batteries with greater ranges are inevitable but the universal charging network is more uncertain and more pressing. If regulators were to make standardisation of chargers, charging points and their operating systems mandatory we could be sure that we were well on the way to delivering a high quality, competitively priced network of charging options rather than simply relying on industry to self regulate effectively.

Regulation would help to remove the real and imagined range barriers. Once everything is standardised and easily accessible, it is not too difficult to see the electric station becoming as common as the petrol station. Once we reach that stage, then take-off in the PEV market will be impressive to watch.

Craig Rice is an expert on the development of electric cars at Frazer-Nash, who formally advised on the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Project as part of BEAMA.

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Another factor is that most of us have experienced laptop and phone battery capacity falling away after a couple of years, so it seems likely that PEVs will suffer decreasing range after a couple of years too, leaving you unable to complete journeys that you previously could.

Also many of us driving older cars have a ‘friend of a friend’ with a 6 year old Prius that can’t even be started because the traction battery has failed.

I’ve never had the cash for a new car, so I will always be looking at the second hand market. What about the cost of replacement batteries?
Also I live in the country, so journeys in excess of 100 miles are not uncommon.
What about the night-time winter journey, with heater, headlights etc?

You said it yourself in the article! “Toyota are launching a hydrogen cell car”
Hydrogen power is the way to go and practical safe and relatively cheap Hydrogen storage is on the way and that will sort the range problems.
Battery power is just a stop gap and I for one will never have an “electric” car and I don’t think many people ever will.

I am neither for nor against PEVs but I do think that the people trying to excite the public to buy the vehicles have a significant challenge on their hands. The reality is that buying a car is not something that is based on logic (or at least not very much logic). Buying a car is a very personal thing – a car is very expensive, people buy cars that match the image they have of themselves, etc., in addition to meeting the more mundane needs of having sufficient range, being big enough to fit the family/dog/bikes. If fact, when we had to buy a small second hand car for my daughter to learn to drive in and I asked her what model she would like her response was ‘a blue one’.
Consequently I feel that unless people marketing PEVs actually start to capture the imagination of the buying public then they will remain an uncommon sight on our roads.

A lot of your respondents seem not to understand just how much power a car requires to be driven safely on our roads. A basic 50 horse power car will have a 37.3 Kilowatt Electric motor. That’s the same as 37 (& a bit) one bar electric fires and the expectation seems to be that we could plug the car into a domestic supply and fully re-charge it in ten minutes or even an hour.
A typical 13 amp, 240 volt domestic plug outlet will only provide about 3 kilowatts of continuous power.
If the car used only 40% of full power on an average journey that is 15 kilowatts continuously needed for the trip duration. so a 2 hour trip will use 2 x 15 = 30Kw hours of stored electrical power. On a domestic electrical outlet the car will take at least 10 hours to fully recharge just that usage. Increase the motor power to 100 horse power and then at 40% of power usage on average, either the charge time or the Kw required doubles. This assumes no power losses or in-car usage for lights, steering, braking, heating etc.
For longer range or more powerful cars, many homes will need significant changes (at a cost!) to their electrical supply to provide sufficient power for re-charging.
Given the huge costs, in all senses of the word, in providing a chargeable, fully electrically powered car I’m not convinced they are in fact cleaner than an economical modern ICE powered car over an average lifetime of say 10 years.

I drive a fully electric Citroen C Zero which I leased for 3 years around 18 months ago. It can do around 85 miles on a single charge and when charging at home on cheap rate power at night it returns the equivalent of 500 mpg when compared to the cost of diesel

I can recharge to 80% full in 20 minutes at rapid charging points at some motorway service stations to extend my range for longer journeys.

When the lease expires I will certainly get another electric car.

For those who would like a better understanding of the pros and cons of alternative vehicle propulsion systems I would recommend the book “Sustainable Energy – without the hot air” by Prof David MacKay published 2009. ISBN 978-0-9544529-3-3. It is available free online from http://www.withouthotair.com

All new cars regardless of Engine or Electric motor need to have less gadgets on board to make them more energy efficient & lighter. This would increase the range and save our fuel to make it last longer for everyone.

As one who joined the LPG “revolution” back in 2001, personally, it boils down to the 3 C’s – COST, CONVENIENCE & CO-OPERABILITY (supply).

I see a similar development of EV’s as LPG, but on a larger scale – mostly driven from the media, environment and governments.

For the majority of people, the chosen vehicle is more practical than “a must have” item – each to their own economics and usage. Start with the sales data as a basis, definitely challenge the figures and do a full review of the maths, installation and available infrastructure e.g. those living in a tower block may find it more difficult to justify than someone in a housing estate.

LPG worked for me at that time – back to a diesel just now. If the conditions were right, no problem to take an EV, but for now, the pros don’t outweigh the cons.

If you haven’t yet driven an EV or hydrogen car, try it (if only for the experience). Ignore the limitations and store your feelings away for future reference.

As many of the major car manufacturers are spending millions on developing non-ICE vehicles, it’s probably a question of “when” rather than “if”, the next automotive revolution takes a firm grip in the market place.

Craig. I drove a Toyota Prius for many miles in the USA and it’s a good car. Somewhat underpowered in modern terms and handles like a wet sponge, but ok. It gave a reasonable 50 mpg in mixed use motoring. I’m told it was expensive to buy and the carbon footprint involved in it’s manufacture is almost certainly higher than for an ICE powered car. This is not a factor that many advertisers mention.
In the UK, I drive a small, adequately powerful 2 litre Turbo-diesel Hatchback with a particulate filter. It has an automatic gearbox (Knee troubles!) so I only get around 40 mpg in town and about 45mpg on a trip. It is now 7 years old and so is just about ‘paid for’ in green terms so any further use I get is essentially on the credit side of the cost equation. I have no intention of changing this for a few years as I estimate I can get around 180,000 relatively trouble free miles before replacement is needed. It is quick and comfortable and has a 450 mile range on one tankful which takes about 5 minutes to fully refill.
Electric cars. Not for me and hopefully not in my lifetime.
I also believe car manufacturers are developing EV’s more because they can, rather than because they must.
As, for governmental guidelines…. Not something I have great faith is personally.

Hi JohnK. Take on board your points – not too uncommon from the general public.

I’d like to throw in this morsel to consider in a hypothetical world.

Ignore all costs (purchase, installation, road tax, servicing, insurance, etc) and only consider the running/fuel cost.
MPG can’t be used as no fluid in EV’s or comparing to alternative propulsion systems.
When I ran a LPG dual fuel Vectra, I used pence per mile. Reality then, was LPG was about half the mpg of diesel, but had lower cost per mile (about 6p). The saving was easy to see and yes, the government was subsidising LPG at the time.

If we compare an EV, then the cost drops down to about 1p per mile – assumes an average £1 to charge and 100 mile range.

If we then assume 135p/litre for diesel, 50 mpg and an average 12000 miles a year, then the saving would be over £1300 a year for an EV – if 45 mpg, you’d save £1500.

Unfortunately, when you include all the up front costs, they do put off a lot of people even if the lifetime cost is getting close to a conventional car.

Electric cars are a joke, there’s no doubt about that. People in the motor industry will tell you that when they’re being honest. The only sillier thing is hydrogen cars before we have efective green electricity. nonethless, being a typically selfish Brit (though not selfish enough to style myself a Socialist), I would have had an electric car by now for my commute to benefit from the subsidies had The Idiot Brown not taken a third of my net salary off me.

Hi Craig. I’m not quite ‘general public’, but happy to ignore the slight and talk costs/mile, but to ignore build costs in £’s and in environmental osts is both selective and narrow, but here goes.
You state about 85 miles on a full charge in your EV and on a trip you can recharge to 80% in 20 minutes which is 68 miles per charge per stop. Let’s assume a 350 mile one-way trip from MK near where I live to Scotland.
You have to plan for a motorway stop to recharge before the 68 mile limit is reached so lets say an average 50 miles between stops. Allow 5 minutes to leave exit, find charge point and plug in, plus 5 minutes to do the same on leaving and you have a 30 minute stop. (I’ve not included comfort or coffee breaks and so have factored those into the ‘extra’ 10 minutes per stop). So we have 7 x 30 minute stops. I make it about an extra 3 1/2 hours on such a trip. Apart from the sheer boredom and frustration at such delays, the costing for that lost working time at around £70/hour = £245.00 on top of your mileage charge. I would also be most surprised if you can buy an 85% charge for £1.00 other than at home. £5.00 on a motorway seems more likely so it’s now 5p per mile for you.

Ecotricity have an “Electric Highway” scheme that is free to join and currently there is no charge to using their rapid chargers located at a growing number of motor way service stations, Ikea stores and elsewhere.
Repeat, there is no charge, zero cost, for using the rapid chargers. The electricity is supplied free of charge.
So all I would pay to go to SWcotland and back (if I were to choose to drive such a long way) is the cost for charging up the battery at home before setting off on my journey which would be around a pound to travel the 700 miles or so to Scotland and back.

If I was travelling to Scotland on business and earning £70/hr I would probably leave the car at home and take the train so I could work during the journey both up and back. Working for say 10 hours over two days and earning £700 means I could well afford to hire a car (electric preferably – I see a French company will soon be introducing electric cars for hire in London run along similar lines to the Boris Bikes) on arrival in Scotland and also to pay for a hotel.

I use my electric car mostly for short local journeys of 10 to 20 miles and occasional trips to London of up to around 70 miles there and back on a single charge (from a 13 amp socket at my home taking around 6 hours to charge the 16 kWh Lithium Ion battery if empty). I have driven with two passengers from my home in Kent to central London and back in the winter (with frugal use of the heater for demisting rather than passenger comfort – having first driven old cars in the 60s when heaters were an optional extra this is not a hardship for me) for less than a pound by charging at night using cheap rate power. With zero emissions I pay no road tax and am exempt from the £10 (or is it £12?) per day Central London congestion/ emission charge and can even park for free in some places.

I no longer commute to London but if I did I would be paying around £3,250 per annum (from my after tax income) for a standard season ticket for the train and probably standing all the way as they are very full during peak travel periods and off peak run only once an hour so are not very convenient.

By using the electric car for all very short journeys this takes away the wear and tear from corrosion during heating up and cooling down from my other car which is a 12 year old diesel with just 120K on the clock which returns low 40 mpg on a long run but much less than this when used on short journeys when the engine is cold. The biggest problem is that it is now used so infrequently that the battery can go flat if I forget to trickle charge the battery. This car has a 30 year corrosion warranty on the body so should last a good few years, particularly if I use the train for work related very long journeys. In fact it may well be more economical for me to get rid of this car and to hire a car when I need to travel a long way with several passengers when the train is more expensive and less convenient.

I heard the other day (possibly during an interview of Prof John Miles of Cambridge University on Radio 4 “You and Yours” programme around 12:35 on 17th March) that MK are introducing some fully electric battery buses that have a dynamic charging system enabling the battery to be charged inductively from a buried cable in the road. That would be a very welcome development along the slow lane of motorways so that electric vehicle batteries could be charged as they travel so that their batteries would be fully charged on leaving the motor way. Would avoid the problem of home charging for those people who do not have off road parking.

Conversion of existing cars to electric drive must be the way forward to encourage take-up and reduce the cost of EV ownership as it will be a long time before second hand EVs are available and as already mentioned by others the motive battery may well need replacing.

A couple of years ago a ten year old converted A Class Mercedes was entered into the RAC “Future Car” rally (held on the same day as the London to Brighton vintage car rally but from Brighton to London) and came in just behind the VW Company entered prototype electric Golf. The Mercedes A Class was designed in 1997 with influence from the Californian market as room was provided under the rear seat for fuel cells or batteries which simplifies conversion.

Any smallish car that is in good mechanical and body condition but reaching the end of its economical life (due to high engine mileage, diesel filter carbonisation, exhaust system and catalytic converter needing replacement, etc) can be converted.

It is a pity the UK Government couldn’t allow some of the predicted £170m surplus by 2015 of the £400m grant introduced in 2011 to encourage the up-take of ultra-low-emission (ULE) vehicles (by offering 25% or £5000 off the price of a new ULE vehicle) to be available for converting existing ICE cars to electric or other ULE drive. That would give a boost to small companies skilled in designing prototypes and supplying conversion kits and to the existing network of vehicle service stations who with appropriate training could readily undertake the conversion work.

It’s very simple. Most people have ONE car, and that has to accomplish all the many varied tasks we ask it to perform. Including the occasional drive, often late in the day or at night, to reach a hospital, or a similar crisis; and often in remote locations.
We have an ageing infrastructure built around petrol and diesel cars; not LPG, and certainly not EVs.
Even assuming you can get 500 miles range from an EV, you still require a massive change in the infrastructure, and I don’t see any signs of that happening yet. That is what will always hamper EV usage; and why a hybrid solution is, at present, the only way forward.

Peter Cox. For the Sun to provide useful charging potential for EV’s will mean a very large Solar array. Best power output from a solar unit is, I think, about 300 watts per sq. metre in full sunlight. Allowing 7 hours of full sunlight per day, then to charge a 16kwh battery from ‘flat’ would require a 53 sq. metre solar array for nearly a day and a half.

So charging points are free are they. A ‘loss leader’ if I ever saw one! My bet… As soon as enough EV’s clutter our roads then watch charges appear and steadily rocket. If plug hopping is needed to get anywhere meaningful then that makes EV’s a captive market and that means high prices.

For a guide to solar power generation potential in the UK refer section 6 pages 38 to 49 of free to download book “Sustainable Energy – without the hot air” by Prof David MacKay at http://www.withouthotair.com

See also his comments on solar power from the worlds deserts on page 6 and refer pages 194 to 195 regarding how electric vehicles will provide electricity demand management when the 30 million vehicles in the UK and the 1 billion or so in the world are battery powered.

Mention should also be made of the major benefit of zero tailpipe emissions from electric vehicles avoiding respiratory illnesses for the billions of people living in urban areas and along traffic corridors who are breathing vehicle exhaust fumes, in particular those emitted by diesel engines.

MikeB. With respect you are repeating unproven theories that are generally acknowledged as fanciful at best. Batteries in cars used for power balancing is a cost in continuing environmental damage for the battery materials alone that does not bear thinking about. As for ‘car’ fumes. Modern engines emit surprisingly few harmful substances compared with Industrial processes.

The major issue is convenience, weight kills electric vehicles as does cold conditions, so what is the range in a cold winter with the family aboard?

Convenience of fuel is another issue, 3-5 minutes in a fuel station and its off for another 700 miles. Electric cars take hours to charge, and forget the “it takes 20 minutes for an 80% charge rubbish as this kills the batteries.

Now the family emergency, you know the sort, child injures itself or elderly relation falls and needs urgent help. No rushing off there to take them to hospital or to help as you haven’t got the range. Ask any of we parents and we have all had this at some time.

Or just someone such as myself who covers over 60,000 business miles, no good.

Then take the cost, £30,000??? you can buy a small car for under £10K and £20K buys a lot of fuel.

The hydrogen fuel car with a water tank plugged intoi the mains at night for an ‘economy 7’ electrolysis to produce hydrogen gas was a fact on the US Sun City project in the 1960’s

Battery operated cars will be failures because of the cost of replacing batteries means that the batteries will soon become the target of theft and ‘knock off’ sales ‘down the pub’. I say this from experience as a former Special Constable pof 9 years service in the West Midlands Police Force from the late 1970’s to 1980’s.

Yes – I know there were no electric cars then BUT commercial vehicle batteries had a high resale value for ‘Knock Off’ batteries sold ‘down the pub’ In the 1979’s and 1980’s I spen many a night hidden ‘on observation’ of vehicle yards waiting for theirves to enter and steal commercial batteries from lorries, buses and coaches.

The resale value of ‘nearly new’ batteries fitted to electric cars will mean they will be targetted by theives to sell ‘down the pub’.

No such market for a hydrogen fuelled internal combustion engine.

Water electrolysis and Hydrogen storage also produces options for hydrogen powered homes generating hydrogen gas from either solar panels or economy 7 electricty deals and using it to heat a boiler, cook and even generate electricty on demand during peak hours/prices.

Yes – very serious – Both about the US Sun City project and battery thefts.

I moved from london to the North West in june 1968 and remember reading an article in the school library’s New Scientist journal about the Sun City project in the USA. A cuty associated with an army base tasked to live on electricty to evaluate how we would live in the era of cheap electric power from Nuclear Fusion – The power of the sun and hence the Sun City project name. Residents wanted to heat and cook wioth gas so hydrogen was electrolysed from water to generate hydrogen in the home for heating and cooking. The also modified internal combuston engine cars to run on dual fuel – petrol and hydrogen gas with the hydrogen generated from the electrolysis of water in a water tank and the hydrogen pumped to the hydrogen storage tank. I remember the range being about 250 miles. The fuel tank system was ingenious and safer than the petrol tank as any hydrogen liberated in an accident would float upwards out of harms way whilst any petrol leaking caused a fire hazard.

In the 1960’s we didnt know about green house gases or acid rain but we did kno how lead in petrol was dangerous to children and redesign victorian schools to reduce the hazard. We also knew how many coal miners were killed and injured each year and had their lives blighted by vibration white finger and respiratory deseases caused by dust. More coal miners still die each year than have died in total from nuclear power.

In have been a commited green eversince and commited to nuclear power as the only realistic way we can generate the electric power needs of our planet and preserve coal and oil as vital chemical resources for future generations.

I have encountered the danger of leaking petrol at every traffic accident I attended in 9 years as a special constable from the late 1970’s to the late 1980’s – petrol leaks and spreads including entering the road drainage systems waithing for a goulish smoking onlooker to throw down a match or stub end they have smoked – Fuel leaks are one of the key items on the checklist police officers attending an accident must lookout for.

The batteries of commercial vehicles were a high value target of theft in the West Midlands in the 1980’s – I spent many a night on observations waiting for crooks trying to steal commercial vehicle batteries to break into transit yards.

Battery packs for electric cars will be much more valuable as a commdity to steal and when a second hand market for stolen batteries becomes established they will be stolen to order for people who cant aqfford to but new ones

Would it be possible to get all battery car manufacturers to standardise the size and shape of all car batteries? Then we could have the equivilent of a small trolley to extract the flat battery from the car and replace it with a fully charged battery from a user friendly rack at the filling station. Goverments must act quickly before we end up with the same fiasco as the mobile telephone chargers.