PFT’s Week Six picks

Posted by Mike Florio on October 13, 2011, 11:52 AM EST

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Last week, Rosenthal and I disagreed on two games. After the Steelers took down the Titans, the only thing standing between our won-loss record to date was the 49ers. And when San Fran obliterated the Bucs, Rosenthal reclaimed his two-game lead.

This week, we disagree on four games. So I could close the gap, I could take the lead, or I could fall down and be unable to get up.

Why do I have a feeling it’ll be another wash?

We both were 9-4 last week. For the year, he’s 52-30 and I’m 50-32.

Panthers at Falcons

Florio’s take: The Panthers keep getting close, but they can’t close the deal. They’ve been competitive in every game they’ve played, losing twice by seven, once by five, and once by three. The Falcons currently are demoralized, with yet another loss to the Packers and a hamstring injury to rookie wideout Julio Jones. The Panthers are getting the Falcons are just the right time, and there simply may be nothing that the Falcons can do about it. Let’s get this picks party started with an upset.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 27, Falcons 23.

Rosenthal’s take: Dangerous game for Atlanta. Their season could easily slip from disappointing to disastrous. Cam Newton continues to shine, but Ron Rivera’s defense is one of the worst in the league. If you combined the 2011 Panthers offense with the 2010 Panthers defense, Carolina wouldn’t be bad.

Rosenthal’s pick: Atlanta 28, Carolina 24.

Colts at Bengals

Florio’s take: The Bengals haven’t beaten the Colts since 1997, the year before Peyton Manning entered the NFL. This time around, Peyton is gone. And the Colts are 0-5. And owner Jim Irsay is openly talking about drafting Andrew Luck. And the Bengals are better than anyone realizes.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 28, Colts 20.

Rosenthal’s take: The impressive Bengals defense hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of quarterbacks. They flummoxed Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton, Alex Smith, and Blaine Gabbert. Of course, they also forced Ryan Fitzpatrick to have his worst game of the season. That was a long way of saying the Bengals are ready for Curtis Painter. Join me on the Bengals bandwagon, won’t you?

Rosenthal’s pick: Bengals 20, Colts 13.

49ers at Lions

Florio’s take: It’s the biggest game between these two teams since the 1957 playoffs. That time, the Lions beat the 49ers in San Francisco. This time, they get together in Detroit. After last week’s decimation of the Buccaneers, it’s hard to pick against the 49ers. But this season is all about exorcising demons in Detroit, and the Lions have lost seven straight to San Fran, and the Lions are 2-14 in the last 16 games against the 49ers.

Florio’s pick: Lions 27, 49ers 21.

Rosenthal’s take: Tackle Joe Staley said two weeks that the 49ers offensive line didn’t suck. He’s been proven right, and now they can make a statement by holding up against Detroit’s deep defensive line. The 49ers defense also doesn’t suck. It’s the best group Matthew Stafford and friends have faced all year.

Rosenthal’s pick: 49ers 23, Lions 20.

Rams at Packers

Florio’s take: My barber/toupee adjuster is a big fan of correction weekends in the NFL, whispering “grassy knoll” whenever he thinks that the league has decided it’s time for a team with a great record to fall to a team with a bad record. Even if there’s truly a conspiracy to give the Packers a loss and the Rams a win (and there isn’t), the Packers are still good enough to overcome it.

Florio’s pick: Packers 31, Rams 10.

Rosenthal’s take: The Rams will probably make longtime Packers cornerback Al Harris a captain on Sunday. If Aaron Rodgers wins the coin toss, he should announce in Harris’ honor that the Packers “want the ball and we’re going to score.” Harris won’t get any game-winning interceptions this time.

Rosenthal’s pick: Packers 42, Rams 17.

Bills at Giants

Florio’s take: It’s a Super Bowl XXV rematch, 21 years later. Despite losing that one, the Bills haven’t lost as the road team in this series since 1970, winning three straight. With four interceptions of Tom Brady and Mike Vick, Eli Manning could be the next victim of Buffalo’s ball-hawking defense.

Florio’s pick: Bills 30, Giants 27.

Rosenthal’s take: I kicked myself for not picking the Bills last week, so I may as well screw up again. Buffalo’s air show didn’t travel well to Cincinnati, and they will face a Giants team salty after an embarrassing loss. Buffalo’s injuries have started to stockpile.

Rosenthal’s pick: Giants 30, Bills 27.

Jaguars at Steelers

Florio’s take: This used to be one of the great rivalries in the AFC. (Key words: “used to be.”) The Steelers, though flawed, know how to get it done at home. The Jaguars, also flawed, don’t know how to get it done at home or on the road. Jacksonville actually leads the all-time series 12-9. Let’s make it 12-10.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 31, Jaguars 17.

Rosenthal’s take: Jack Del Rio says his defense is playing well, and anyone that says otherwise has an agenda. Fair enough. The Jaguars defense still needs to be better to survive starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. A ton of resources have been spent on the defense. It’s good, not great.

Rosenthal’s pick: Steelers 26, Jaguars 10.

Eagles at Redskins

Florio’s take: When the Eagles traveled to Washington last year, Mike Vick had a game for the ages. And that performance now seems like ages ago. Every week, the Eagles are backed against the wall and, every week, they fail to deliver. The Redskins have a great opportunity to settle the score — and to cement their grip on a once-dominant division that’s now in a down cycle.

Florio’s pick: Redskins 27, Eagles 23.

Rosenthal’s take: In theory, this should be Jim Haslett’s salvation game. The Redskins defensive coordinator can watch his vastly improved group force Michael Vick into mistakes. Unfortunately for Haslett, Rex Grossman will make more mistakes. That will make it Juan Castillo’s salvation game.

Rosenthal’s pick: Eagles 28, Redskins 24.

Texans at Ravens

Florio’s take: The Ravens are too strong on both sides of the ball for a Houston team that has blown its shot at a 5-0 start — and that now faces a struggle to win the division without linebacker Mario Williams for the rest of the season and receiver Andre Johnson until further notice.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 30, Texans 13.

Rosenthal’s take: Fun game. The Ravens versus the Texans offensive line is as good as it gets. Cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph and Baltimore’s Lararius Webb are both playing like Pro Bowlers. Ray Rice running against a vastly improved Texans rush defense will be interesting. Give the edge to Baltimore overall, and don’t be surprised if we see a rematch in the playoffs.

Rosenthal’s pick: Ravens 27, Texans 24.

Browns at Raiders

Florio’s take: The first home game since the passing of Al Davis won’t go well for the team that faces the Raiders, whoever that team may be. Sorry, Cleveland. The wave of emotion may not carry the Raiders through the next 11 games, but it will at least get them through the next one.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 28, Browns 18.

Rosenthal’s take: The Raiders host the Browns, Chiefs, and Broncos the next three weeks. The old Raiders would find a way to blow one or two of those games. Cleveland’s underrated pass rush could pose a problem, but I think this Raiders team is too consistent to lose to a bad team at home. Don’t let me down, Raider Nation.

Rosenthal’s pick: Raiders 24, Browns 17.

Cowboys at Patriots

Florio’s take: The Cowboys are getting healthy just in time to face their stiffest challenge of the year. The Patriots are riding a 19-game regular-season winning streak at home, and the Cowboys simply aren’t ready to blow a lead or choke in the clutch against a team as good as the Patriots.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 34, Cowboys 20.

Rosenthal’s take: Tom Brady got his revenge on Rex Ryan last week. Now Brady tries to get Rob Ryan back for the beatdown the Browns put on the Patriots last year. The Patriots defense gives up a ton of yards, but they have played well in the red zone and forced timely turnovers. Translation: Expect to see “Bad Tony” at some point.

Rosenthal’s pick: Patriots 34, Cowboys 24.

Saints at Buccaneers

Florio’s take: Yes, the Bucs have beaten the Saints three of the last six times the two teams have met. But Tampa’s team is feeling a little shell-shocked after getting shellacked in San Fran, and the Saints realize that, if the Lions can overcome the Packers in the NFC North, the Autobahn to Indy can still wind through the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. If, that is, the Saints can keep winning.

Florio’s pick: Saints 31, Buccaneers 21.

Rosenthal’s take: The Bucs don’t have the type of roster yet where they can withstand injuries to key players. Their defensive line will miss Gerald McCoy, and their running game needs LeGarrette Blount. The deep Saints offense can withstand injuries, but all their skill players are all healthy at the same time for once. Tampa can’t match up.

Rosenthal’s pick: Saints 30, Bucs 21.

Vikings at Bears

Florio’s take: The Bears seem to be coming apart at the seams, specifically along the offensive line. Unlike last year, the blocking isn’t getting any better as the year progresses, and the Vikings have the same kind of punch along the defensive line that the Lions unleashed on Monday night. This one feels like it’ll be decided by a late Ryan Longwell field goal coming after a Jared Allen strip sack.Florio’s pick: Vikings 20, Bears 17.

Rosenthal’s take: This is Jared Allen’s chance to let America know about his incredible season. Forget breaking the single-season sack record by the end of the year. Allen could break it during this game.

Rosenthal’s pick: Vikings 24, Bears 21.

Dolphins at Jets

Florio’s take: The Dolphins have beaten the Jets twice in New York under Rex Ryan, but both games were more than a tad flukey. This time, the Jets are desperate and desperation should be enough to ensure a win, especially since Miami is breaking in Matt Moore at quarterback, with Sage Rosenfels waiting in the wings. Though one game won’t address flaws that run deep on the roster, the Jets won’t have to worry about waking up to a 2-4 record on Tuesday morning.

Florio’s pick: Jets 28, Dolphins 16.

Rosenthal’s take: The last time Miami visited the Jets, New York’s offense was in a mini-crisis. Mark Sanchez’s development was questioned. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was taking criticism. Sound familiar? Miami won that game, but Miami had a defense last year.

Rosenthal’s take: The Rams will probably make longtime Packers cornerback Al Harris a captain on Sunday. If Aaron Rodgers wins the coin toss, he should announce in Harris’ honor that the Packers “want the ball and we’re going to score.” Harris won’t get any game-winning interceptions this time.
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Miami hasn’t lost to the Jets in the Meadowlands under Sparano. Last loss was during the 1-15 campaign. Winless teams (0-4 or worse) are 22-3 ATS in games following bye weeks. Sparano owns the Meadowlands. The only thing better than getting Andrew Luck this season will be getting Brian Schottenheimer fired. Fins.

The Phantom Stranger says:Oct 13, 2011 12:05 PM

Good call on the Vikings-Bears game. Two teams going in opposite directions.

poppirt says:
Oct 13, 2011 12:11 PM
Eagles will win. In fact they will crush the Skins. It will be the beggining of the big let down later in the season…

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Even at 1-4, the Eagles are very explosive with tons of talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The Redskins are vastly improved — particularly on Defense — but have struggled scoring in the red zone and Grossman still turns the ball over too much. That said, it certainly wouldn’t shock me to see the Eagles win. Vegas actually has them as favorites in fact.

With that said, you are predicting that the Eagles will CRUSH the Redskins? That’s a bit bold, particularly with the Redskins defense playing at such a high level, which is liable to at least keep the scoring down a bit.

I think with such a bold prediction, you will definitely need to come back on Monday for a debrief, win or lose. I’ll look for your post at that time.

The Eagles certainly could win this game. I look at this as a test to see if the Redskins really have turned the corner. They have been saying all the right things this week about Philly being a dangerous team, etc. If Rexy does not have to throw the ball too much I have faith that the three-headed monster of the running backs and the D can beat Philly. When Rex does throw it should be to Cooley and Davis because Philly cannot stop the run or TE passes over the middle – just can’t do it.

Also interested to see Philly fall apart and see if M. Vick reverts to his punk ways out of frustration.

The only downside to finishing off the Eagles season would be that it would help lead to firing Andy Reid. As long as he is the coach I don’t have to worry about that disgusting franchise winning a super bowl and their ignorant, drunken fans getting to celebrate.

“The 49ers defense also doesn’t suck. It’s the best group Matthew Stafford and friends have faced all year”

Really? The 49ers have played two good QB this year. Romo dropped 345 yards passing on them (and did not even play the whole game) and Vick dropped 416 yards on them. Let’s not get carried away because they held Tavaris Jackson, Andy Dalton and Josh Freeman in check.

Rosenthal, you have the Packers winning 42-17 over the Rams? On what planet does the Rams offense have what it takes to score two touchdowns in one game, let alone one? Better yet, on what planet does the Rams depleted defense “hold” Green Bay to 42 points at Lambeau?

Hey Rosenbloom oop’s did i get your name wrong??? Well so was your pick what grounds do you make your selection of the E-gals hmmm is this based on last year’s second game? And did you forget about the first game they played last year won by the Redskins…the E-gals have lost two home games the Giants and 49ers the same Giants team Washington beat by 2 TD’s, the defense they faced twice last year is not the defense they’ll face this year…furthermore this so called high powered offense is the same offense the Redskins held to 3 pts in game 1 last year in Philly 3 pts too that pitiful 30th ranked D.

I’ll be back. My prediction is based on how they like to build up expectations before kicking you in the cookies at the end of the year. That being said, my prediction stands. I think they win this game by no less than 2 scores. See ya Monday

skinnyskins says:Oct 13, 2011 1:39 PM

The Eagles are too undisciplined to beat anybody right now, much less my Skins. That offsides last week against the Bills was the most amateurish and embarrassing play of the entire NFL season so far.

Also, everybody is so quick to jump on Rex about turnovers but he is on par with the rest of the NFC East: Vick – 10, Eli – 7, Romo – 6, Rex – 7. Rex is probably having the most consistent season out of any of those QBs; nothing great but nothing that has cost us a game. You cant say that for Vick, Romo, or Eli.

I see a good matchup for the Skins considering we can run the ball all over the Eagles D and get pressure on Vick against their weak line.

Really? The 49ers have played two good QB this year. Romo dropped 345 yards passing on them (and did not even play the whole game) and Vick dropped 416 yards on them. Let’s not get carried away because they held Tavaris Jackson, Andy Dalton and Josh Freeman in check.
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1. despite the stats that Romo and Vick put up – one game was lost in OT and the other – the defense held Philly out of the redzone in the second half and we won. The niner’s Defense is ranked @ #1 – yeilding a TD in 26.7 % of opponent’s redzone possessions.

Currently we are 3rd in the league in interceptions compared the Lions 4th place ranking, and 2nd in the league with a turnover differential of + 10 compaired to + 7 for the Lions. The Pass defense has allowed it’s fair share of yards while the rush defense is number 4 – who’s yet to allow a 100 rusher in the last 26 games and yet to allow a rushing TD this season.. not too shabby.

The Lions also faced Romo, and Freeman. Now you wanna add Cutler, McNabb and Matt Cassel to that list?

Be humble that the lions are undefeated (so far) and the fact that outside of KC, EVERY other team failed to close on you guys.

Like it or not, the 9ers are the best team the Lions will play up to week 6 – as is the Lions are the best team the 9ers will face up until now. So STFU.

Landry ending careers is a joke if you remember correctly DJax made him his Bitch last year on the first play of the game and if you would like to talk about the rest of the game we can. Eagles broke NFL records In washington last year. Washingtons run this year is over.

you just whined about rosy referencing the 2nd game last year, yet you referenced the 1st game last year multiple times.

if i’m not mistaken, in the 1st game you love bringing up so much, our starting quarterback (same one who destroyed your team in the 2nd game) was knocked out for the last quarter and kolb couldn’t finish the game.

the defense we played last year is virtually the same, minus a rarely playing haynesworth.

35-31 eagles

46defense says:Oct 13, 2011 2:32 PM

mrfrostyj says: Oct 13, 2011 1:18 PM

Browns @ Raiders.

Can someone say trap game?

This is the Cleveland Browns coming off a bye week. Let me refress your memories a bit.

2006 – Browns 20, Bears 10

2007 – Browns 27, Rams 20
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The Browns did not even play the Bears in 2006.

dawkphan says:Oct 13, 2011 2:33 PM

This sunday will show me if the Eagles have any chance of becoming a team or if they are truly who we think they are. After watching the last couple of games they have serious problems , not the least of which is giving up on plays . I want to see if they can pick themselves up and have some pride in there game , I haven’t seen that in this incarnation of the Eagles Yet . Go Eagles!

Oct 13, 2011 1:12 PM
“The 49ers defense also doesn’t suck. It’s the best group Matthew Stafford and friends have faced all year”

Really? The 49ers have played two good QB this year. Romo dropped 345 yards passing on them (and did not even play the whole game) and Vick dropped 416 yards on them. Let’s not get carried away because they held Tavaris Jackson, Andy Dalton and Josh Freeman in check.
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1. despite the stats that Romo and Vick put up – one game was lost in OT and the other – the defense held Philly out of the redzone in the second half and we won. The niner’s Defense is ranked @ #1 – yeilding a TD in 26.7 % of opponent’s redzone possessions.

Currently we are 3rd in the league in interceptions compared the Lions 4th place ranking, and 2nd in the league with a turnover differential of + 10 compaired to + 7 for the Lions. The Pass defense has allowed it’s fair share of yards while the rush defense is number 4 – who’s yet to allow a 100 rusher in the last 26 games and yet to allow a rushing TD this season.. not too shabby.

The Lions also faced Romo, and Freeman. Now you wanna add Cutler, McNabb and Matt Cassel to that list?

Be humble that the lions are undefeated (so far) and the fact that outside of KC, EVERY other team failed to close on you guys.

Like it or not, the 9ers are the best team the Lions will play up to week 6 – as is the Lions are the best team the 9ers will face up until now.

NoRespect says:Oct 13, 2011 2:35 PM

hoobsher,

I think I only need to quote you to let everyone know your level of football knowledge:

you just whined about rosy referencing the 2nd game last year, yet you referenced the 1st game last year multiple times.

if i’m not mistaken, in the 1st game you love bringing up so much, our starting quarterback (same one who destroyed your team in the 2nd game) was knocked out for the last quarter and kolb couldn’t finish the game.

the defense we played last year is virtually the same, minus a rarely playing haynesworth.

35-31 eagles

Wrong you are Vick was knocked out of the game well before the last quarter, and evidently you follow nothing more than the E-Gals if you think the defense is the same yes gone is Fat Albert and Carlos Rogers but there’s Steven Bowen, Barry Colfied, Oshimigo Atogwe, Ryan Kerrigan on this defense see ya Sunday partner…

mezter says:Oct 13, 2011 4:31 PM

The Niners are going to beat the Lions the weekend. Hold me to that. I have faith that they have what it takes to give the Lions their first loss of the year!

“Good call on the Vikings-Bears game. Two teams going in opposite directions.”

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I love this, the queens beat one bad team this year, the Cardinals, at home, and yet their fans think they are headed in the right direction with the Packers x 2, Bears x 2, Saints, @Falcons, @Lions, @Carolina, Washington, and Oakland still on the schedule. You will be lucky to finish 4-12 this year. But don’t worry, you still be able to call it a successful season because Jared Allen can hang his cowboy hat on a sack record!

49ers are gonna WRECK Detroit on Sunday. Has that team actually faced a real defense yet? I’m talking about a REAL front 7? It was an absolute joke seeing Jahvid Best running roughshod all over Chicago.

Lions are a one dimensional football team on offense and they will be exposed for it this weekend. Book it.

I love this, the queens beat one bad team this year, the Cardinals, at home, and yet their fans think they are headed in the right direction with the Packers x 2, Bears x 2, Saints, @Falcons, @Lions, @Carolina, Washington, and Oakland still on the schedule. You will be lucky to finish 4-12 this year. But don’t worry, you still be able to call it a successful season because Jared Allen can hang his cowboy hat on a sack record!
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I didn’t say they would beat every team on their schedule. I just meant that the Vikings would finish ahead of the Bears this year. Maybe you should watch and learn.

barneysbullet says:Oct 13, 2011 6:51 PM

‘ppreciate you guys both picking against the Bears…let’s see how that works out for your cute little W-L records. Tools.

Really? The 49ers have played two good QB this year. Romo dropped 345 yards passing on them (and did not even play the whole game) and Vick dropped 416 yards on them. Let’s not get carried away because they held Tavaris Jackson, Andy Dalton and Josh Freeman in check.
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Spoken like someone who hasn’t looked at all the numbers. You’re forgetting about their run defense….the fact they haven’t allowed a 100+ yard rusher in 27 straight games. Or that they are the #1 RZ D. Or the fact that those passing totals are partially related to the fact their offense was asleep for 3 games so they were on the field a lot.

And most importantly, the fact they are being viewed as one of the most physical, if not most physical, defenses in the league.

I am just saying that if Romo and Vick put up 400 yards, then what makes one think they will give Stafford fits? Stafford is the highest ranked QB in the 2nd half of games with a 125 qb rating, with 8 TD and 0INT. He is playing at a much higher level than Vick and Romo. There is no reason to believe that this will be Stafford’s toughest test. Maybe it will be the Lions overall toughest test, but Stafford will have a big day, there is no doubt about that.

skinnyskins says:
Oct 13, 2011 1:39 PM
The Eagles are too undisciplined to beat anybody right now, much less my Skins. That offsides last week against the Bills was the most amateurish and embarrassing play of the entire NFL season so far.

Also, everybody is so quick to jump on Rex about turnovers but he is on par with the rest of the NFC East: Vick – 10, Eli – 7, Romo – 6, Rex – 7. Rex is probably having the most consistent season out of any of those QBs; nothing great but nothing that has cost us a game. You cant say that for Vick, Romo, or Eli.

I see a good matchup for the Skins considering we can run the ball all over the Eagles D and get pressure on Vick against their weak line.

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I love how skins fans think that the Eagles playing sloppily makes their own team somehow better. “Much less my skins.” LOL.

eaglesdynasty says:Oct 14, 2011 6:44 PM

while losing to the Redskins wouldnt at all surprise me, as coach Shannahan will almost certainly out-coach Andy Reid, its just such a must win for Philly—its basically a playoff game as the season is basically over at 1-5. The Redskins are over-achieving and feeling good. I have to believe Philly will play with fire in their stomachs sunday and play with more intensity. If the Eagles come into this must win game sloppy and unfocused then that is a huge indicator that Andy Reid isnt doing his job. I am a huge Reid fan and dont really want him fired—-yet—-but a ugly loss sunday would give his detractors alot of ammunition.

what we need to do is scrap the wide 9 as a every down d-line alignment. Playing the wide 9 on first down really doesnt make sense with our personnel. It leaves gapping running lanes open that our pitiful linebackers cannot even pretend to fill. On top of that our safeties are weak as well. So its basically inviting opposing offenses to attack our biggest weakness over and over. We need to play a base 4-3 look on first and second down, let the rookie Jaiqwan Jarrett play at SS (ig nothing else hes a big hitter and cant be worse than Page), and move Chaney to MIKE, with Brian Rolle or Akeem Jordan at WILL and Fokou at SAM. We also need to adapt the defense to our CBs strengths—–stop out-thinking and out-scheming yourself Jaun—-let Nnamdi play man press coverage, let Asante play off in a zone, let Cromartie use his athletic ability and speed………….we have the 2nd best lockdown cover corner and the best ballhawk CB in the league and are not playing to either of their strengths

the cowboys will be wearing their blue jersey for this game. the cowboys will upset the patriots to jump start their season to being the nfc representative in indy for super bowl 46. Yes that right all you romo haters, this will be romo’s signature game, guaranteed. Mark it down you heard it here first, when the cowboys upset the pats this sunday, watch this cowboys team which is healthy for the 1st time this season, beat the rams, iggels, seahawks, bills, deadskins, the fins on turkey day, cardinals, upset midgets and the bucs, to finish 1st in the nfc east with a 5-11 record, then watch romo finally get the ghost of danny white off his back and lead the cowboys in the playoffs to winning super bowl 46. GO COWBOYS!!!