For a couple years now, I've been toting up the
unpleasant symptoms of
Mexico's lurch toward failing statehood from the
viewpoint of a concerned neighbor who lives next door to
a crack house. Now I read that VDARE.COM's resident
Mexico expert Alan Wall thinks that I'm overstating the
problem.

I read his
analysis with interest because of my great respect
for his opinion. But still think I'm right—Mexico is a
lawless mess that's getting worse and presents a near
and present danger to us Americans, who have unlucky
geography. [VDARE.COM
NOTE:It was, of course, the Mexican
dictator
Porfirio Díaz who was
credited with saying "Poor
Mexico, so far from God and so close to the United
States", but the corollary is obvious.]

One crisis that doesn't seem imminent is a
Pancho Villa style revolution. I've never suggested
that scenario was likely. Marxicans clearly hoped that a
teachers' strike in Oaxaca in May would grow beyond a
leftist mini-insurrection into a national uprising. The
Oaxaca disturbance has lasted several months and
shut down much of the central city. But it didn't
spread.

The Mexican meltdown is instead a 21st century
phenomenon in which non-state actors—the drug
cartels—acquire enough money and power to carve out
their own areas of control through private armies. Think
Somalia meets
Colombia.

Wars among the cartels are a
growing source of violence, wreaking economic
devastation on places like Nuevo Laredo, a border town
that has
lost 60 percent of its American business in the last
two years.
At least 40 businesses have closed in the town,
where firefights between cartels may include
rocket-propelled grenades and hundreds have been killed.

And even without the cartels, crime is worsening to
the point where average Mexicans feel threatened The
issue has become part of the political debate—Mexico
expert
George Grayson remarked in November about el
Presidente Calderon, "He knows it is imperative
that Mexican citizens feel that they are safe in their
own streets."

Mexico City is home to
"express kidnapping" in which middle class
people are snatched and forced to give up their debit
card and pin number. As a result of kidnapping becoming
a more common form of rip-off, Mexico is
#2 worldwide in kidnappings per capita.

In 2004, a stunning quarter million people rallied in
Mexico City to protest the government's inability to
stem the worsening crime wave. People carried pictures
of crime victims and demanded the death penalty be added
to Mexican jurisprudence.

From 1992 to 2002, Mexicans
reported at least 15,000 kidnappings—second only to
(guess who?) Colombia, according to the Inter-American
Development Bank.

March organizers said most violent crime goes
unreported, partly because of
police corruption and the knowledge that nothing
will be done.

"We are afraid. We can't go out onto the street
and the police do absolutely nothing to protect us,"
said Yolanda Tellez, 62, who is retired. [Mexicans
protest at soaring crime, by Mary Jordan, The
Melbourne Age, June 29, 2004]

When crime reaches a certain level,
it becomes an issue of national security. The Vice
President of Colombia, Francisco Santos, said as much in
September:

Street gangs have proliferated throughout
Central America in the 15 years since the end of
civil wars. Guatemala has called in United Nations crime
fighters, in an admission that its own police forces
cannot cope.

Quite simply, what's going on in
Mexico fits the definition of a
failed state. The combination of factors—growing
corruption and crime, lessened competence in Mexico
City, the rearrangement of Mexican geography into cartel
fiefdoms with the uptick in narco-influence (see
map)—have merged to lessen government power.

Inability to enforce the law and preserve order over
territory is one definition of a failed state. That's
exactly the situation in Mexico.

The new Presidente, Felipe Calderon,
took office December 1, albeit under inglorious
circumstances as he hurriedly
took his oath among brawling opposition legislators
[video]
who sought to prevent his swearing in.

But one of his first major acts has been to send
6,000 troops to Michoacan to round up traffickers. He
also plans similar military incursions in other areas.
Calderon appears to be made of sterner stuff than his
predecessor. But it remains to be seen how much the
military deployment is for the cameras.

Let's consider some other symptoms of the Mexico
malaise.

Cartels have consistently beaten back
police and the Mexican army when the government has
attempted to reassert its authority. El Presidente
Vicente Fox sent troops into
Nuevo Laredo June 13, 2005, but when the military
was pulled out in late July, the city was "more
violent" than when they went in.

Regions that once were free of narco-violence,
particularly
tourist areas that bring in needed cash, are now
free-fire zones. Once glamorous Acapulco is now called
Narcapulco, because the drug gangsters have moved in
with little opposition.

Cartels have taken a style cue from al Qaeda and are
now using beheadings to terrorize the police and
populace. In April, gangsters from one drug gang
decapitated the commander of a special strike force
and one of his agents in the resort city. Police cannot
protect their own men, much less the civilians entrusted
to their care.

A poll last spring revealed that
half of Mexicans believe their country is on the
brink of chaos, that "50 percent of respondents
feared the government was on the brink of losing
control." Part of the reason was the decreased sense
of personal safety that average Mexicans felt due to the
violence and corruption they see in their communities.

Falling revenues for the government
oil monopoly Pemex mean decreased tax receipts and
less money to deal with Mexico's many real needs in
education, health care and infrastructure. (A systemic
source of Mexican enfeeblement is the critically
low level of taxation generally, particularly from
the rich,
who pay zip.)

In a country where the underground untaxed economy is
enormous, there's a
popular saying among wealthy Mexicans: "If you're
paying taxes, you have the wrong accountant."

It's unsurprising then that Mexico raises less
revenue through taxation than nearly any other Latin
American country,
just 12 percent of GDP, which is one reason why the
nation's enormous wealth is not better utilized. By
comparison, the United States takes in 25-28 percent of
its GDP in taxes. Even
Brazil taxes itself at twice the Mexican rate.

Not only is Mexico a failing state, it's also a
failing society. The country should be a paradise. It
has valuable resources, great natural beauty, an ideal
location and hard-working people. Its
elite do very well indeed.

What it doesn't have is an aversion to corruption.
While many Americans live their entire lives without
paying a single bribe,
mordida[bribery] is
endemic in Mexico. Such attitudes lead to dishonest
police and politicians. Add a permissive attitude about
crime, where
smugglers are romanticized in
song, and you have a perfect atmosphere for
narcotopia.

How much worse can it get? The issue of law and order
in Mexico in the near term hinges on how serious
Calderon is about cracking down on the cartels—and
whether he can bring meaningful force to bear given the
corruption of the army and police.
Somalia and
Colombia really are the possible models over the
long term since cartels are not unlike
warlord organizations.

The cartels have virtually unlimited money, and
Mexico City is taxing soda pop to raise funds. Increased
instability from organized crime will only encourage
millions more to abandon the sinking ship and go north,
since we know few Mexicans care to stand and fight for
their country.

Bottom line: Mexico has an immense problem. Which
means the U.S. does, too.