Iran moves the hour hand closer to midnight
•
Page 4

Sorry maybe i should clarify that point, what I meant was that in light of recent exercises in neighbouring countries, a strike before capability was fully realised or a strike to destroy related facilities to delay full capability was more likely?

At the moment it's all wargames, but with the current US administration I wouldnt put anything past them.

Yeah, once that genie is out of the bottle, it wont be too long before there's a Saudi bomb or Egyptian bomb.

Just a shame then that the US is determined to finish it's 'Axis of Evil' list off and attack Iran, rather than offer some sort of Grand Bargain and lay everything out on the table, including offering non-aggression pacts and economic incentives in return for abandoning their enrichment program.

Israel wouldn't be too happy so that's a no-no. Unfortunatly, it looks like war is inevitable.

I doubt very much Israel would do anything with out covertly agreeing it with the US their number one arms dealer and backer. After all its in the US and Israels own interests to remove all threats in that region.

Pure-Ultra wrote:
if we are assuming that Iran needs to be attacked, what sort of nukes do you think we should use and what number of casualties should we try and achieve?

Is that a serious post? Honestly?

I bet that the Americans and Israeli's have a plan on this basis. Hopefully it won't get that far but I'd be interested to know what people think. For example, should we look at tactical nukes to minimise casualties or send a strong message to evil countries by dropping a 20 megaton warhead and starting Iran again in a couple of decades time?

souljah wrote:
There is no threat from a nuclear armed Iran. None.
For all their half-cocked talk, the top leadership are ultimatly rational people. They know that had they possession of a few nuclear weapons

A): They certainly could not use them in a conventional manner (ie ballistic missile) as there would be little doubt as to where they came from, and within 15-20 minutes, Israeli missiles and US ICBMs would be fighting in the sky on who is going to destroy a city first.

If Iran were to learn the location of Israel's missile silos then it's possible they could launch a missile and destroy them before Israel had a chance to launch. The distances involved is tiny. It's a possibility, but I wouldn't be surprised if Israel already has some of the most sophisticated and well integrated launch detection systems in the world.

souljah wrote:
B): They also couldnt smuggle it into Tel Aviv or into the US. Again, were it discovered before detonation, or it did indeed detonate, it would not take too much work to discover the source of the weapons-grade material and mushrooms are sprouting in Iran in short time.

"Oh noes, someone stole some material from us"

souljah wrote:
An Iranian nuke could not be an offensive weapon as it would be a totally unbalanced equation - assured destruction of Iran with minimal to medium damage to the target country.

Now as a weapon of last resort against an attacking nuclear power who is gaining an upper hand, that seems more likely.

The problem isn't conventional, it's what a nuclear armed Iran could do without fear of reprisal. The tests were conducted at the Straight of Hormuz. If that's not a clear indication of the real nature of the threat than god knows what is.

Also, if you look into the history Iran did not start developing nukes to fend of GWB. They started in the 80s. For war to be averted Iran needs to adhere to UNSC resolutions and stop enriching uranium. All threats of attack and invasion stem SOLELY from their refusal to abide by the UN and the NNPT.

Again, Iranian oil is not of the quality that is in such high demand for fuel. The US or any other country isn't going to be keen on attacking Iran for its oil. Shit, they can just launch a commando raid and steal a bunch of tankers

Iran does not need to fear an attack if it stops its nuclear program. I don't know why this simple fact is so hard for people to grasp.

DaemonB wrote:
I doubt very much Israel would do anything with out covertly agreeing it with the US their number one arms dealer and backer. After all its in the US and Israels own interests to remove all threats in that region.

It sure seems Israel's strike against the Syrain nuclear weapons facility was done on the sly and without US approval or even knowledge.

If Iran were to learn the location of Israel's missile silos then it's possible they could launch a missile and destroy them before Israel had a chance to launch. The distances involved is tiny. It's a possibility, but I wouldn't be surprised if Israel already has some of the most sophisticated and well integrated launch detection systems in the world.

Destroy 200+ warheads, many of them road based ballistic missiles and aircraft based with a handful of crude nuclear devices on top of a rocket a little more accurate than those scuds that Saddam was throwing about 15 years ago?

Come on, as soon as the ignition button is pressed, any number of US launch detection satellites, radar bases in Iraq and Israeli spy aircraft will have spotted the launch and the second the missile passes into Israeli territory, the counterstrike will already be inbound. If it detonated as a nuke, then at the very least, Tehran would no longer exist within a matter of minutes.

Khanivor wrote:
The problem isn't conventional, it's what a nuclear armed Iran could do without fear of reprisal. The tests were conducted at the Straight of Hormuz. If that's not a clear indication of the real nature of the threat than god knows what is.

No fear of reprisals? Taking a machiavellian look at things, Israel and the US would probably welcome the casus beli that Iran would hand them on a plate by acting as the invinsible nuclear armed country while committing hostile acts. Were Iran then to back up threats with actual use of their pitifully crude nukes then see above.

Khanivor wrote:
Iran does not need to fear an attack if it stops its nuclear program. I don't know why this simple fact is so hard for people to grasp.

Pffft. All Iran have to do is look over its western border for an answer to that!

I agree with the first point really, which is why i don't think Iran's nukes are a danger in the sense of them deciding "fuck it, let's nuke the Zionists". The danger comes from the huge shift in the balance of power and the ability Iran would have to hold the world hostage by strangling the Straight of Hormuz. I've yet to read any response to this and related situations that doesn't rely on an opinion of the US and Israel as foaming at the mouth for the opportunity to nuke Iran.

And again, the fear is not limited to the US and Israel. Do you think the Greeks wank themselves into a stupor of fantasy over mushroom clouds over Tehran? Maybe they have more pragmatic reasons for conducting military air exercises with Israel.

For sure there's a lot of ridiculous exageration of cockwaving on the parts of certain people in the US and Israel but I don't understand how this behaviour somehow negates any and all concerns over a nuclear-armed Iran. Why on Earth would Israel want to attack Iran, other than to destroy nuclear facilities? Why would the US wish to commit economic and military suicide by invading Iran? Honestly, go find serious people calling for attacks on Iran which are not related to its nuclear program. You may find a few suggesting something should be done about Iran's backing of the insurgency in Iraq but as their program predates the invasion by around two decades it's hard to claim defence from an unprovoked attack is a honest aim.

Now, if Iran were to allow some nuclear material to fall into the hands of people who would use it to detonate a device then it's going to be hard to convince people in democratic nations that vaporising a few million innocent Iranians is the best response. Better off not putting both the Iranians and hundreds of millions of potential victims around the globe in that position in the first place.

Aye, there is that development too. On the one hand it shows Iran is mega desperate to antagonise as much as possible, while on the other hand it helps to remind us they are sill some way from being the threat that many fear. They are apparently a few years away from having the ability to tip missiles with nuclear warheads. Makes one wonder why they are so keen on pushing the issue hard right now.

Khanivor wrote:
Aye, there is that development too. On the one hand it shows Iran is mega desperate to antagonise as much as possible, while on the other hand it helps to remind us they are sill some way from being the threat that many fear. They are apparently a few years away from having the ability to tip missiles with nuclear warheads. Makes one wonder why they are so keen on pushing the issue hard right now.

Because they reckon that if they rattle the sabres they've got now for long enough, maybe it'll keep the wolves from the doors for long enough for them to build something really nasty.

It's not particularly clever, but I don't think the Iranian leadership's worldview is particularly complex or intelligent. As far as they're concerned, one of their oldest and most powerful enemies (the whole Shah thing still weighs really fucking heavy on them, not to mention the Iran-Iraq war) just invaded the guys next door and has massed troops there.

Never mind the fact that America is spread too thin as it is and doesn't have the stomach for another invasion or occupation, or that those troops are barely enough to control Iraq, let alone secretly preparing for an Iranian invasion. The Iranian leadership has shown time and again that they're paranoid and often irrational.

But they're also belligerent, arrogant, aggressive and dangerous. Rather than going "fuck, okay, this is a bad situation - let's play nice and try to improve it", their reaction is to puff up their chests, shake out their colourful feathers and parade around with their chins in the air, hoping nobody notices how much they're sweating.

I'm not saying it's America's fault, because it patently isn't - not directly. I'm merely saying that much of what Iran is doing is swagger because they're afraid of America.

Ironically, of course, it's the present swagger that actually means they have something real to fear, but I doubt they see it that way.

More importantly, one of the senior Iranian generals who was in charge of firing the missiles yesterday is called General Salami. That's fucking awesome.

Khanivor wrote:
Iran does not need to fear an attack if it stops its nuclear program. I don't know why this simple fact is so hard for people to grasp.

Because it appears to be completely untrue. It's certainly not a fact, whichever way you slice it.

Appears on what basis?

Iraq - with its mythical weapons of mass destruction is the obvious answer. Not to mention the phenomenal amount of 'it's 'when' not 'if'' rhetoric from both Israel and the US over the years.

Now you can say 'that's just talk', but one of the justifications for attacking Iran is their collection of wanky, belligerant statements. What is sauce for your goose is sauce for my gander.

It seems to me that it's going to take a huge amount of pressure from less interested parties to stop the whole china, russia, US, israel, iran thing from turning into the sort of 'Holy shit' situation we got into because of the bay of pigs fiasco.

It is absolutely not the fault of one nation - it's not even /mostly/ the fault of one nation - the wankery has been widespread. One of the reasons this sort of situation drags on and on teetering on the brink of utter stupidity is because everyone involved is busy pointing fingers and shrieking 'he started it' instead of trying to cool it down.

Shinji wrote:
Because they reckon that if they rattle the sabres they've got now for long enough, maybe it'll keep the wolves from the doors for long enough for them to build something really nasty.

Gotta agree for the most part there. It's a policy that has worked well so far, which is why those who are of the opinion Iran either deserves nukes as much as the next man or is only in it to keep the evil yanks and Jews at arm's reach depress and annoy me.

However,I also think the Iranian regime is more than reacting towards perceived threats. I think they realise both the US and Israel are at historically very weak points and now would be a splendid time to spread their wings and jostle for control of the region. Till we wean ourselves off of oil stability in the Gulf is in everyone's interests. It certainly appears many, many people have forgotten the crisis back in the 80s when Iran first tried to control the Straights. That's the bloody reason all those American warships went there in the first place!

Shinji wrote:
More importantly, one of the senior Iranian generals who was in charge of firing the missiles yesterday is called General Salami. That's fucking awesome.