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Thursday, January 10, 2013

ZIPS Projections

Fangraphs released their 2013 Kansas City Royals ZIPs projections today. If you haven't checked them out, you can do so here. With the new projections, I wanted to take a moment to plug them into Royal Review's wonderful projection machine to determine what kind of win output we could expect if the Royals play to their ZIPs projections in 2013.

Just a refresher, the Bill James projections spit out a 94-68 record. Cairo called for 83-79. Repeat performances in 2012 with health called for 86-76. However, the ZIPs win total isn't as rosy projecting Kansas City to go 78-84 in 2013. To be blunt, this type of performance would likely result in an administration overhaul entering the 2013-14 offseason.

Averaging out the four projection systems, we see the Royals at an 85-77 mark. If the Royals can reach 85 wins, I think a lot of us would be pretty happy with that sort of step in the right direction. To be blunt, meaningful games in September would be enough to make this season a success in my eyes.