Small changes, big results

Doc BearNov 15, 2010 3:00 PM

Sometimes, just a few items need to change in order to alter the fortunes of a team. Oftentimes, we as fans don’t have a chance to see those things - they happen in practice, in the halftime locker room and off camera. But against the Chiefs yesterday, fans got to see the parts that counted - from the 35-0 start to the final gun, the Broncos showed that even with some of its key players still hobbled or out (including Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers and Andre' Goodman), they are a far better team than their record to date has shown. The simplest thing that changed was the return of Ryan Harris and the LG debut of Zane Beadles.

A healthy offensive line makes a heck of a difference. Ask any coach and they’ll tell you that it all starts with the OL. There’s no question that many people will point to the quarterback, the defensive line, the defensive backs - but if you need a running game, you need your starters on OL out on the field. Do you want your QB to have time to make his throws and to stay upright? The same goes, and it went for no sacks. It’s just one game, granted, but Ryan Clady, Zane Beadles, JD Walton, Chris Kuper and Ryan Harris are clearly the group that Denver has lacked up front for the past two seasons.

You can look at the performance of Knowshon Moreno, and give the young man credit. I’d heard a few comments by fans in the past month or two that were growing increasingly hostile claiming that Moreno was a bust, a wasted pick, a player who could snow the college teams but isn’t tough enough or fast enough, not evasive enough for the NFL. Somehow, the words ‘Slower when injured’ didn’t get through to some fans. On one of Knowshon's better runs, Beadles sealed off the left DE, pancaked his man, Walton sealed the NT and Moreno ran over, past and through the Chiefs. He had a freeway lane past the LOS. Does that make a difference? 106 yards - and his NFL career-first 100-yard game - say that it does. Add to that 50 yards on 3 receptions and one TD receiving.

Kyle Orton thought so, too. 22 of 34, for 4 TDs and 296 yards with zero sacks seems to back him up. Sure, the Broncos leaped out to a 21-0 lead, and then extended it to 35-0 before halftime. After that, it was just a matter of holding on to gather in the win. A 131.5 QB rating (154.9 in the first Q, 138.3 at halftime) for Orton didn’t hurt that outcome. He’s also in the NFL's top two in both 20+ and 40+ yard plays (along with San Diego's Philip Rivers). After wearing out a keyboard (and some folk’s eyes) by repetitively typing “The OL really does matter” for the past couple of months, it’s nice to see the Broncos prove it. By the way, it was Kyle’s 28th birthday yesterday, and he celebrated by throwing bullets to his receivers and 4 TD passes to make merry. Happy Birthday, Kyle. And congratulations. As usual, it was someone else’s play that created those bullets:

"I'm telling you, I wasn't even close to being touched the whole game," Orton said. "I felt as comfortable today as I have in a long time."

Some fans are going to be complaining because the Broncos gave up too many points in the second half. I don’t have any concern about that - there just comes a point (around the time that Denver had 42-49 points) when you’re slowing down the pace, not worrying about scoring more points - although you don’t turn them down - but just keying on keeping the number of opposing drives to a minimum. Denver did fine on that. Josh McDaniels will have found plenty of corrections to make by Tuesday's meetings, but he’s a very happy man at this point. Todd Haley is experiencing some very different feelings and showed a lack of class by refusing to shake hands, but that’s not Denver’s problem.

The third time I watched the game, I noticed something that had eluded me in degree - Joe Mays was a two-down LB most of the time, but later in the game, when KC was throwing constantly, Mays was surprisingly good in coverage. That’s been a problem for him since college, but he seemed to understand KC's throwing scheme and did a much better job on keeping the TE in front of him and tackling as soon as the ball arrived (on one occasion, he was just a wee bit early, and the ref rightfully caught him on it) than I would have expected. He was a monster against the run, just as predicted - on several occasions, he met Jamaal Charles at the LOS, and Charles didn’t make more than 1 or 2 yards on those plays.

The entire LB corps deserves a big round of applause - Jason Hunter is remarkable, blowing up plays, snatching a fumble to rumble for a TD, pushing the protection back into the QB. Mario Haggan left his feet and hit Charles in the upper back and possibly his lower helmet - it was a bad decision, and the ref rightfully tagged him on it. He made up for it on the next play, sacking Cassel and forcing the fumble that Hunter took to the house. DJ Williams came out with something to prove - he should be stripped of his captaincy more often if that’s the outcome. Even Jarvis Moss added a ST tackle.

And Haggan? Haggan had three sacks, three quarterback hits and two tackles for losses. He moved to OLB, played SILB when down and distance were appropriate and seemed to be all over the field. Despite his bad judgment on the hit to Charles’ upper back and neck, he just couldn’t be stopped. It was the Haggan that I recall from early last year.

The return of Kevin Vickerson was big, as is the player (and his heart). Justin Bannan was trouble for KC on play after play. Even Jamal Williams had a tackle, but more importantly, he created consistent problems for Casey Wiegmann, as did Ronald Fields (one solo tackle, one assist) and Marcus Thomas (2 tackles). It forced double teams that took players away from Bannan, Vickerson and the LBs, which slowed the running game effectively, with the edges well set. Even Ryan McBean played well.

I didn’t think that Champ Bailey had his usual level of game, and this isn’t the first time I’ve had to mention that this year. I have to wonder if Champ’s asking price was what stopped negotiations between Denver and himself - he just doesn’t seem quite as good, which makes him excellent, rather than inhumanly good. The good news is that despite getting beaten a few times, Perrish Cox is clearly a starter on his way up, and I’d expect him to be fighting Andre’ Goodman for the starting slot in the last games of this year rather than waiting for next. Nate Jones was frequently just a shade late, which I’ve had to note too often as well. Goodman may take over at nickel - he can’t tackle that well, but what he misses there he makes up for by covering much better than Jones. David Bruton had a couple of good plays, and Darcel McBath, in his first game back after missing three with an ankle injury, had 4 tackles and played well. More young players, coming up in the league. That’s good to see.

Then there's Spencer Larsen, who had a 14-yard run and another for 3 yards, both for first downs. On the first of the two, he looked a lot like Peyton Hillis used to in orange and dark blue - this time, he’s being used by choice and he showed how well the OL can catch the defenders napping with a handoff to the FB for a change, with the speed that it comes. The game also showed that Larsen is doing what he always does - adapting to what he’s being asked to do and practicing until he’s doing it well. He blocks very well - in that, he’s doing better than Hillis did his first year with Denver - and ran with the same kind of fierce intensity as well as scoring his first NFL touchdown on a 3-yard toss from Tim Tebow. Not a bad day’s work. On Tebow’s TD run, Ryan Clady fired off the edge and shoved the DE/OLB back. Immediately, Larsen rammed into him mercilessly and Tebow could have stopped for a latte on his way to the end zone. It was beautiful.

Eddie Royal had 5 receptions and two runs (one for 19 yards), and two punt returns for a total of 26 yards, including an 18-yarder. Brandon Lloyd brought in 6 passes for 2 TD and 90 yards, maintaining his position atop the NFL's leaders in receiving yardage. A staggering 45 of his 48 catches have gone for Denver first downs. Kyle Orton ranks second in the NFL in passing yardage, is tied for fifth in touchdown passes, and sits at seventh-best in terms of QB rating. And, yes, there’s a point here.

As much fodder for jokes as the ages of Denver’s free agent acquisitions have provided, look through the above list. You’ll find that few of the players named are above 30. Most are 29 or under. This is a younger team (averages aren’t as important here - I’m more concerned with how many players they will have to replace soon) with substantial talent that needs to fill in some holes and continue to increase the depth of the squad. The job is a long way from done. That said - what we saw yesterday wasn’t a fluke. Granted, three Denver TDs in the first quarter forced KC to run less and pass more, but even when they ran, they were far from as successful as they have been in other games. 153 yards rushing for Denver to 51 yards rushing for KC is about more than just playing from behind. It’s a combination of that, a healthy Moreno, finally getting our OL healthy and settled in, and excellent coaching in every phase of the game.

Denver isn’t suddenly going to start scoring over 40 points every game. However - a couple of myths have died already this year. Orton put the Titans game on his back and brought home the win - it’s something that I continually read that he’s not capable of. He also just scored, or brought Denver to the brink of them, 42 points, despite the redundant statements that he can’t rack up points (he also has 16 TDs against just 5 INTs in the first 9 games of the year). Moreno nailed his first 100-rushing yard game, and added another 50 receiving. He looked danged good for a guy who can’t play in this league. Brandon Lloyd has changed, after a long time of hearing that he can’t. Joe Mays showed an intriguing level of two-down skill. Jason Hunter is solid for all three. The list goes on.

Mays also blew up Jamaal Charles at the strongside line so often that he'll have to apply for an explosives license, but it would be worth the cash to get him one. I haven't even seen Ayers stop the run any better - Mays was at or past the LOS and into the backfield almost as often as Haggan, and it seemed that Haggan had squatter's rights on that chunk of moving real estate. The main reason for Mays' high level of play was that he reads the plays very, very well (part of that was knowing that Cassel had to throw more, but when KC was still trying to run, Mays was sealing that off). Nice to see that acquisition working out so well - he's also an ace ST player, so he's taken over the slot that Darrell Reid left and has put on a far better performance on LB.

Next week the Broncos head to San Diego to face the league's # 1 passing offense - both in terms of yards and touchdowns. They’re never easy to beat, and for those who are looking for more blitzing by Denver, keep in mind that Philip Rivers is the best QB in the league against the blitz. They’re ranked 16th in rushing, and 4th in points scored. If there’s a good spot - they’re playing terrible on special teams, long a strength for San Diego.

Whether Denver turned the season around or not, they did a lot of things yesterday that could influence this season, and years to come. They have a starting OL in which Chris Kuper and Ryan Harris are ‘old men’ at 27 and 25, respectively. Lance Ball may not be a top, league-leading back, but Denver needs solid players as well. Moreno? Only time will tell, but he’s got a lot of skills, and when healthy, he’s a heck of a player. Orton? Denver’s starting QB this year and most likely for many to come. And, the systems are just starting to come together.

So, take some time. Kick back, put up your feet, and enjoy the feeling of pounding a division rival, getting through a game with minimal injuries, finding the OL that the Broncos wanted to start the year with, and enjoying holding the #1 team in the NFL in rushing to under 60 yards. It’s worth a little feeling of enjoyment. Tough teams deserve tough fans. If there’s anything that I’m sure of today, it’s that these Broncos played tough this week - and they proved that they are.

Go Broncos!

Learn to laugh at yourself. You will be ceaselessly amused. - Sri Gary Olsen

You can reach Doc at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or follow him on Twitter @alloverfatman

Related

By the way, CB - I fully understand your feelings on the 3-4 and I&#8217ve written about those same factors in the past. The hybrid is one way to go.

There are still enough &#8216tweeners&#8217 as they are still called (which is odd - they&#8217re Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4 LBs. They aren&#8217t &#8216between&#8217 anything - they&#8217re just big guys who can move), even if you have to draft them a little higher due to demand. Your point on NTs is very good - and the last draft had a few good ones, which makes me sad to have missed them.

However - I&#8217ve heard (I&#8217m still concerned more with this season) that next draft, (and there will be one, I&#8217ve read, even if there&#8217s no football. This makes no sense to me, but that&#8217s what&#8217s being said) will also have a few worthwhile big guys on D. The Broncos needs to consider getting a big young guy and teaching him for a year while J. Williams is in Denver. But there are options.

Part of this equation is that you can move to a hybrid, as Arizona did, but they still took big Dan Williams and they also have big Gabe Watson as part of the second string/rotation group, so a hybrid doesn&#8217t necessarily solve the issue. Dallas went to a very different form - the Phillips 3-4 - and are able to use the 305 lb Jay Ratliff as a NT with good results. NE runs much what Denver does, and their NT is 325.

So, despite the average fan&#8217s expectation that a NT should be 340 lbs minimum, there are lots of other options. By the way, Kevin Vickerson is 326 lb and could move over (he has already, once or twice). Bannan is so good on the LDE that I&#8217d hate to even think about him as a NT. He&#8217s perfectly capable, regardless of his weight (it&#8217s in the technique, and his is beautiful) but I consider him too good to move.

We&#8217d need a better starting RDE than McBean (Marcus Thomas?) if the Broncos use Vickerson at NT, or McBean might need to up his game. However - with Fields, M.Thomas, Bannan and Vickerson as well as J. Williams, one thing that Denver has is plenty of options. They would just need to chose the kind of DL defense that they want to run - small changes, really.

I guess that the point is that there are several ways to consider dealing with the NT position. As far as your basic premise, though - there was a single team (Pitt) using the 3-4 at the beginning of the last decade. Now it&#8217s half the league, just 10 years later. Half the league means that whether you go 4-3 or 3-4, half the teams are looking for much what you are. However - because you have the Bullough (often called the Fairbanks-Bullough, but shorter to say), and the Phillips (designed by Bum, not his son Wade, and it usually used slightly lighter, faster linebackers that are sometimes called &#8216coverage&#8217 LBs) as options, the 3-4 guys we like are still a little easier to find. It was a poor draft for them, however.

The Greek root of the word &#8216dilemma&#8217 comes from the word that names the horns of a bull. If you go right, you get gored by one, if you go left, you get gored by the other, and if you go in the middle, you get both of them. The draft has gotten very much like that. So has free agency. It&#8217s the nature of the game.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2010-11-16 22:15:14

CB, my info on Belichick comes from a lot of sources, but Halberstam&#8217s &#8216The Education of a Coach&#8217 is certainly one of them. Christopher Price&#8217s &#8216The Blueprint&#8217 is probably the one I read/use the most. The Gutman book, &#8216Education of a GM&#8217 was fascinating, if somewhat dense to get through. &#8216Moving the Chains: Tom Brady and the Pursuit of Everything&#8217 by Charles P. Pierce was helpful.

Pete Williams &#8216The Draft&#8217 had a nice section on NE and Belichick that was, not surprisingly, very draft oriented, and to read about the draft in NE you have to touch on his theories of the game and of building and maintaining his organization. Ted Bruschi&#8217s &#8216Never Give Up&#8217 with the forward by Tom Brady was quite good and offered some insights into Belichick, even though the book was about Bruschi and his stroke. I also use Michael MacCambridge&#8217s &#8216America&#8217s Game&#8217, which has a lot of background that makes Belichick&#8217s experience more accessible, even when it&#8217s not about him personally. Getting sorry that you asked? Sorry about that&#8230...lol.

I&#8217ve also found lots of good articles on the internet and matched the info against either a couple of other such articles or the info in the books. I don&#8217t have the new Tom McGuane, by the way - what&#8217s the title? I&#8217d like to pick it up.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2010-11-16 21:44:39

Doc and John Hilton&#8212totally agreed on the points you make. John, when I referenced the Steelers, I was referencing exactly what you&#8217re talking about. If they were to try to build that team from scratch now, well, being a fan would be excruciating.

To me, saying &#8216let&#8217s build through the draft&#8217 is symbolic, the way talk about deficit reduction is during a political campaign. When you say it, you&#8217re signaling patience, an appreciation of the importance of the salary cap, and a preference for developing players in-house and within a system. But values statements like that thankfully and necessarily bend in the face of reality.

All of this bring me back to the long-standing question of whether it&#8217s preferable to run a 4-3 today. A lot of the advantage in 3-4 was in player procurement, but nose tackles and enormous LBs are being appraised at ever-higher values. I am coming to prefer a hybrid-front approach, if only because it may expand the talent pool (there are different types of situational players who have value in such a system) and because it once again brings added game-day flexibility.

Doc&#8212is your information on Belichick from Halberstam&#8217s book? I have it and the new Tom McGuane out of the library. Life is sweet.

Posted by Chibronx on 2010-11-16 21:24:38

Wow. Great questions and comments.

A couple of answers. Neuro - you&#8217re right. It wasn&#8217t Champ&#8217s best work, but he ran his tail off on that fumble recovery. Thanks for reminding me.

CB - I&#8217ve commented on this a few times, but it&#8217s a huge key and it exposes a myth in the NFL. No team builds exclusively through the draft. The math is impossible, unless you just do what KC and OAK did - spend years having top picks, and then putting a team together will all those players. I&#8217ll pass. That means that FA will also be a key, and this year, the lack of a CBA really screwed that up. Denver still has developed, and that&#8217s impressive.

John Hilton - Great points! In response - what Bill Belichick did, more than anything else, was to develop a response to the problems of the salary cap. He was an econ major in college, and he sought out one of his former professors to help him. He also talked to many of the top people on teams from other sports who have won consistently, such as the Lakers. The system he developed is something I&#8217ve written on a lot - we&#8217ll have an archive of those articles, as well as several other categories, as we can get to it.

With Indy, they win consistently but have only one SB ring. Peyton Manning is a huge reason that they win. They, too, need a good running game and a powerful defense. They are one of the few teams to run a somewhat smaller, speed oriented D and still win regularly. There&#8217s a secret.

The secret is that Manning is not Archie&#8217s son - he&#8217s an android, developed by a black ops government agency to prove that they can do things better than humans. One of the janitors caught them oiling one of Peyton&#8217s joints and let out the secret. He was never heard from again.

Steve - I&#8217m not at all sure about Champ. I do see him slowing a bit, the off-coverage against KC not withstanding. However - he has made it clear that he doesn&#8217t want to move to safety yet. He wants 3 more years at CB - with money to match. He&#8217s currently at 9.5 million plus incentives that have moved him up around 13 mil. Only then does he want to move to safety.

I&#8217m not sure that Denver will pay him that kind of scratch, and I&#8217m not certain that he&#8217s going to be worth it as a CB in two years. That&#8217s a problem, no question. He is brilliant trade bait if they develop enough good players, but CB, since A. Smith didn&#8217t work out at all, is a bigger problem without Champ. This one is up to McX, and I wish them well with it. No easy solution comes to mind.

JT - Yes, Mays is listed at 5&#821711 and 246. He looks closer to 255, he&#8217s incredibly strong and has excellent tackling technique - when he doesn&#8217t just pick them up and throw them down. Heck of a run stopper, getting better in coverage. He gives Denver more flexibility if Ayers is wanted to play DE in a 4-3 variation play, for example, or if Ayers or Hunter is hurt. Good call. To me, it suggests that Jarvis Moss may not be around that long, or may go back to the scout team. MVP there or not, he hasn&#8217t been that effective on the field, although he did notch a ST tackle later in the KC game. When Doom returns, LB may be one of our strongest suits.

Thanks to all!

Posted by Doc Bear on 2010-11-16 19:25:54

Got a chance to watch a few more quarters of last Sunday&#8217s game last night. Mays is a fireplug. What, 5&#8217-11 and something around 250? Sheesh.

Posted by jtomasik on 2010-11-16 18:35:04

Great read Doc.

Really good to hear about the performance of the o line and of Mays, maybe he is more than just a special team player.

Do you think Champ moves to safety in the next few years?

Posted by SteveUk on 2010-11-16 18:25:24

In fairness, the Steelers have had a few off years and have hit on the draft picks from the bad years. They would not be anywhere near as good of a team if Rothlisberger (5th overall) and Polamalu (16th) weren&#8217t picked.

I also believe the Steelers system gave them an advantage when acquiring personnel as it utilized players that don&#8217t fit any other team&#8217s mold. Their linebackers are hybrid players who are too small for DE but too big for standard 3-4 systems. In the past, it allowed them to almost never pay the big bucks for LBs. Same thing with CBs; since they use primarily zone systems and most teams grade DBs on man to man ability, you get some discounts. With so many teams now using the 3-4 and looking for those oversized fast OLBs (ie. Robert Ayers), this advantage is slipping. This is probably why they are paying more money to James Harrison that they intended (not to state that he is overpaid, but you never saw the Steelers give out that kind of money in the past).

Continuity also helps. If you have 3-5 years to train in a system, you have a chance of being a remarkable replacement player when you let people go.

I also have a theory why there are no dominant teams (in the classical sense of the word) and why the NFL appears so unpredictable from week to week. Yes, it has to do with the salary cap, nothing profound about that, but stick with me for a second. What the salary cap does is force teams to pick one to two strengths and be barely adequate, in terms of talent. When the Steelers won in 2006, they had the perfect array of opponents in terms of their strengths and opponent&#8217s weaknesses. Take New Orleans last year. They actually got supremely lucky. The worst matchup possible for them was Minnesota and it showed in that game. It took 5 (it could have been more, I don&#8217t remember) stupid turnovers by for them to win. If Minnesota only turns the ball over 4 times, they win. Are the Saints a bad team? No, but because of the cap, the matchups matter more than ever because the talent difference is so close in so many aspects of the game.

Which comes to New England and Indianapolis. They are the only two teams I can think of which have the potential to routinely beat ALL systems they face. Why is that? Is it talent? Other than Manning and a few other players, it is hard to say that they are SO much better than everyone else. Same with New England. Other than Brady, are they SO much more talented than everyone else? What do they do that others do not? They are the two most adaptable teams in the last 10 years. Belichick designs unique game plans every week and requires players who can adapt each and every week. The Colts are very adaptable on offense because of Manning. I think this is the key to winning consistently in the NFL. It takes a long time to establish the system, get the players in place, and create the environment where backups have 3-5 years to learn before replacing the starters. I think Ted might disagree with me, but in these systems, players are fungible. In other systems, they are not.

Posted by John Hilton on 2010-11-16 17:30:08

John Hilton&#8212those are really excellent points. It&#8217s all a bit speculative right now, and I&#8217d personally love to see the NFLPA stick it to the owners. But what the Broncos have that other teams lack is flexibility.

I think we&#8217re all so eager to correct for Shanny&#8217s bad drafts that we&#8217re enamored of the idea of building a team solely through the draft. I do the math in my head on the walk to work sometimes, and it never works. Let&#8217s see: 4 picks in the first 3 rounds next year. Needs at NT, DE, ILB, TE&#8230. and then we need to stock the cupboard at FS (McBath has health issues), need another running back, better back-ups on the OL. And then next year, something will have to be done at CB and what if Lloyd leaves. Free agency isn&#8217t a way to build a team in and of itself. But it&#8217s an essential ingredient in building a top-tier team, unless you&#8217re, oh, the Steelers.

Posted by Chibronx on 2010-11-16 15:13:42

Great read,Doc. Excellent post and comments.

I wasn&#8217t able to watch the game yesterday. Not on locally. I have caught some highlights that I watched 6-7 times to watch the different players perform.

I expected this group of guys on the OL to perform very well - but this beat any of my exspectations. They are already quite good and growing into a formidable force! That makes the entire team better. I like it when Orton is literally untouched all day.

I enjoyed your catching Shanahan&#8217s remark about being 1 or 2 players away&#8230. So glad we had a regime change here.

10 and 6 until we ain&#8217t!!

Thanks, Doc Bear.

Posted by BlackKnight on 2010-11-16 08:10:36

anyone notice champ screaming down the field after hunter scooped up the ball? he may have been off at points during the game, but he definitely gave 100% trying to make sure hunter got the touchdown.

Posted by neurospasm on 2010-11-16 07:41:08

What I say, more than anything, is that you folks have the greatest comments, questions and insight of any site on the &#8216Net, bar none.

That truthfully said, let me try to answer some questions and comments. First, John H - John, this was a great point:

Another aspect I think is being unplayed is Denverâs cap situation next year. As far as I can tell, there are in terrific shape to acquire some talent.

And you&#8217re right. In fact, originally, under Mike S., Xanders was brought in to deal with all of the cap problems that had magically materialized (his choices of draft and FA picks had NOTHING to do with it (lol) - but he was smart in looking for a solution.

Xanders was with Atlanta and had worked himself up in the organization, developed the educational credentials and was brought in specifically to deal with contract and cap issues. The outcome is that there appears - and I&#8217m NOT a finances guy (Hey, Ted, man, where are you when I need you - lol) - to be two aspects that are essential. Freed moneys - in other words, minimizing &#8216dead&#8217 money, such as the rest of Dry Bly&#8217s salary, etc, is one.

Xanders has, by all reports that I&#8217ve read, done a bang-up job on this part. He&#8217s cleared tons of dead money - cash. The second issue is the salary cap, and there will be a lot of trouble if there is no game in 2011, or if deals are finalized by the league who then changes the cap in a negative way. This is also, from what I&#8217ve read, an increasingly well-handled area of the team&#8217s structure.

So, it looks like Denver is in fairly good shape. Many of our best draft picks were in the &#8216value&#8217 area of the draft, and while a few FAs didn&#8217t work out well, most have been just fine at fair prices. If you&#8217re interested, this page is full of useful information:

Now, on to Orton and Lloyd. Orton is easy, right now - he&#8217s under contract next year. So is Tebow. Quinn, unless he&#8217s suddenly turned it around in practice (my breath is not held), is likely to be gone, which frees up some money. Orton&#8217s next year looks like this:

Denver will need to lock him in. Opinions vary, but since he&#8217s second in the league in yardage and has 16 TDs against 5 INTs after 9 games, I bet we find a number that both can live with and keep him. With Tebow as a #2, we&#8217re fine, and if we want to get a cheap veteran, there are a few out there. Most teams go through this - you have to pay the QB to play the QB. Ouch, but it&#8217s necessary.

He could be expensive - if he choses to be. In NE, many players - at least 7 that I could find, including Tom Brady, took under market packages so that the team could afford to keep the core together. Denver&#8217s people might be equally inclined.

If not - we&#8217ll see after next year, whether there&#8217s football or not. I hope that there is for an unusual reason - we have a lot of younger players who need the playing time. If, for example, Decker - who made some good ST blocks and tackles on Sunday, by the way - and D. Thomas start to look like I think they can, Denver might let Lloyd walk. They might also pay him, and I hope that they do. His numbers are going through the roof. With Eddie, Gaffney (perhaps - it&#8217s a deep bunch, much as I love Gaff). btw - this is his:

2/27/2009: Signed a four-year, $10 million contract. The deal includes $3 million guaranteed. 2010: $1.95 million, 2011: $2.4 million, 2012: $2.65 million, 2013: Free Agent) and the skills of Decker and D. Thom in the wings, at least there will be some options.

It&#8217s fair to say that Denver will need a lot of cap space in 2012 and 13 - Harris needs a new contract for next year, several will come up for renewal in 2012 and at least four in 2013).

The one thing going for Denver is that you get the ball if you get open. If Lloyd gets open more than anyone in the league - and right now, that&#8217s how it looks - then you pay him. No one else is doing that for you, and you want it to win games.

Draft picks and FAs are crapshoots - he&#8217s here, productive, has a link with Orton that&#8217s remarkable and without him, we&#8217re not even 3-6. You can&#8217t pay them all, but you can pay the best. Needless to say, this may not play well for Champ, who&#8217s costing 13 mil and asking for more, supposedly. That isn&#8217t likely to happen.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2010-11-16 05:48:47

Great post Doc. For how much Coach gets excoriated for some recent trades (Smith, Hillis), it is absolutely amazing how the additions to this team have played so far.

Big Vick looks like exactly the type of player I was hoping we would draft. Hunter is excellent depth and is playing better and better. Joe Mays is a living battering ram. Who knows what the ceiling is on these guys?

I hate to start speculating on the offseason already, but I was thinking forward to next year and thinking about the (probable) lockout. If there is no football in 2011, what do you think we would do with our two extremely tradable assets in Orton and Lloyd? Both of them have first round picks that are handpicked to fill their roles being brought along slowly behind them. Both are also playing at a level that is top 10 at their respective positions (probably more like top 3 for Lloyd). Since their contracts would expire in a year without football, what do you think the team would do to capitalize on them?

I surmise from your post that you expect Orton to stay as the starter. I would love to keep Lloyd too, but with the way WRs are he is probably pricing himself out of our range. It is a tough position. You hate to trade proven production for speculative production, but Thomas and Tebow are dripping with talent and both Orton and Lloyd could bring us a very nice haul to fill in some of our more glaring holes. What say you?

Posted by NaggleNole on 2010-11-16 04:19:45

Doc, I like the comment about the guy who hated McD because he hadn&#8217t done anything. I also like the complaints that he is trying to do it the New England way. You mean the way that won 3 SBs and pretty much was the team of the decade? Heaven forbid we emulate that.

Another aspect I think is being unplayed is Denver&#8217s cap situation next year. As far as I can tell, there are in terrific shape to acquire some talent. Without question, there will be a salary cap, but wasn&#8217t isn&#8217t mentioned is the fact that it will GO DOWN substantially if the players agree to a reduction in the percentage of revenue that they take home. This is the reason Champ&#8217s contract never made it to signing. When you consider what Washington, NYJ, Dallas and Minnesota (just for starters) have spent this year because there is no cap, imagine the talent that these teams have to let go just to get under it. The teams that plan for the rainy day are going to be in great shape. I think we are one of them. We are going to be pleasantly surprised with the acquisitions in the offseason.

Posted by John Hilton on 2010-11-16 04:08:31

Great article as usual Doc! It&#8217s scary how good this offense (and team) can be when things are clicking.

Posted by MW730 on 2010-11-16 03:50:40

And you tell them, Space Cowboy! With you all the way.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2010-11-16 03:40:34

LOL, ud. Yes, it&#8217s hard to be all that sympathetic. It&#8217s true that Orton and friends went right after the weakened secondary, but the Broncos were planning to score first regardless. After what Denver has been through - and is still going through, with losses like Doom, Reid and Branson - my feelings of compassion are less than perhaps normal. We finally got our OL, and they really showed why McX put this bunch together. If KC has issues - welcome to the NFL.

And you&#8217re right, of course. As I type, it&#8217s 45 to 14, Philly. I understand that mike Shanahan announced before the game that they were just one or two players away&#8230....grin.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2010-11-16 03:39:05

This game(more like the first half) shows what the Denver offense can do when everyone does their jobs right and well. It is possible that it was an aberration and not something to expect every week, BUT look at the people we have on that O-Line:

Clady(a BAMF if I ever saw one)

Beadles(Finally playing where he will be most effective)

Walton (So impressive for a rookie)

Kuper (Solid)

Harris (When healthy, another BAMF)

If they all play to the level that they expect out of themselves, then this line will keep Orton upright, and blow open the running lanes. Give these guys a few weeks playing and practicing together and watch out, this line is stacked with more talent than most other lines across the league.

Plus: Denver&#8217s WR corp is the best in the NFL. Hands down, and if the run game can remain even partially consistent, watch out baby!

I have always had a good feeling about this team, and not even the Ref&#8217s could steal the magic from yesterdays game (I am looking at you Jet&#8217s and 49&#8217ers game).

49 points is probably an aberration, but this is the kind of offense that if it plays well, could easily put up 28-35 a game, which is usually more than enough to win.

10-6 till we aren&#8217t baby!

Posted by SpaceCowboy on 2010-11-16 03:38:38

I have no hard feelings about Shanny and it takes awhile to build one&#8217s own team, but gosh, it&#8217s not like his team is looking so unstoppable these days either.

The injuries have really been underplayed, I agree. Of course a Chiefs fan I was talking to (if you can call it that, more him whining) on MHR was talking about how injuries really hurt KC this week and that&#8217s why they lost. I understood but had very little sympathy. <img alt="wink" height="19" src="http://www.singernet.com/images/smileys/wink.gif" style="border:0;" width="19">

Posted by underdog on 2010-11-16 02:53:06

Rig - Woodyard, with Joe Mays beside him to the strongside. Joe covered his half of the field better than I would have hoped - his run tackling is remarkable, and I commented above on his pass D.

John H - I understand what you&#8217re saying. It&#8217s been my experience that most folks just like to hear themselves pontificate. The people who know the least about football are usually easy to pick out - they are the ones talking loudest and saying the least that makes sense.

Since Shanahan was fired, there are many who hated the idea, and who did and do hate McDaniels (I loved the comment on a different site by a poster. He was excoriating McD prior to the first training camp. When I asked when he was so angry, he replied that it was because McDaniels hadn&#8217t done anything yet.

Um, yeah&#8230...lol. Good point, there, son.

Grin. The worst part is - it&#8217s not a joke or a made-up story. It did happen, and there&#8217s no shortage of his kind. It explains a certain amount, but like yourself, ChiBronx and many others who enjoy spending some time here, I have no time for such folks. Boring&#8230.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2010-11-16 02:46:04

First time poster, just want to say I love the site.

I know Josh doesn&#8217t want to use the injury excuse, but holy moly, it just goes to show you what he has been dealing with over the 1st half of the season. Ryan Harris made a huge difference in O-Line play. If you consider that he went down the same time as they began to lose games last year, you really get an idea of how incredibly valuable he is to the team.

The team is still has a ways to go. The defense needs more playmakers. Ayers and Dumervil will help that substantially. As much as I like Dawkins, the more I watch him, the more I am realizing that he is showing his age and slowing down. He is not the same player as he was last year.

The other thing I wanted to say (which has not a lot to do with this post, sorry) is that I don&#8217t understand how people can call Josh arrogant. His press conferences are respectful despite the fact that it is clearly not reciprocal. I&#8217ve never seen more people out to get someone like I have with him. I just don&#8217t get it.

Posted by John Hilton on 2010-11-16 01:58:53

who played for DJ on the first drive?

Posted by Rig on 2010-11-16 01:25:59

ND&#8212

I&#8217d like to politely suggest that you might be missing my point. Champ was, for the second half, in a prevent defensive mode, playing off his man and keeping him in front to prevent long passes as much as possible. I don&#8217t knock him for doing what the DC asked him to do. It&#8217s not like he gets a say in that.

My concern with him is that there have been more and more plays during times when he&#8217s in tight man coverage where passes are at times getting past him. Are they in the majority? No, far from it. But they are getting slowly more common.

The other side of the coin is simple - did you see the play that he made in the endzone, reaching around and knocking that ball away without touching the receiver? There aren&#8217t a lot of people in the NFL who can do that. As long as he&#8217s able to, he&#8217s a great benefit to the team.

The issue that arises for me is how long he&#8217s going to be able to play at that level. There&#8217s also the issue of whether Denver will have to pay him next year if there&#8217s no football. It isn&#8217t an easy, or clear situation, but it will play out however management wants it to.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2010-11-16 01:17:42

Doc, I appreciate your thought on Mays improving his coverage as the game went on. We will certainly be facing that type of game vs SD.

Gates is always tough to handle. We will need to make sure we get physical with him (like we did w/ D Clark). Finding a way to knock down Phyllis will also play a factor.

Very tough road game next week. Thankfully I am looking forward to it - after yesterday.

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2010-11-15 23:27:36

I&#8217m hoping McD and the team rallies and begins a long, long life of championships together. There are SO many whiny crybabies calling for his head who I&#8217d like to serve a full 9-course meal of crow to! Could you imagine a win at San Diego next week? What that would do for this team!

Well, one could dream. After all, I thought the Chefs were going to hand this team a beating, and thankfully I was dead wrong.

Posted by jtomasik on 2010-11-15 23:00:23

Great read, Doc! Being a &#8220glass half full&#8221 kind of guy, I was seriously concerned that with a loss yesterday, it might signal that the head coach might be losing the team. Boy, did yesterday feel good! Thanks!

Posted by Bill Curtis, Cedar City, UT on 2010-11-15 22:54:22

Champ got pummeled yesterday. What makes you think he looked so good?

Posted by NDbronco on 2010-11-15 22:38:47

Doc, great to have you writing the articles you do and I really appreciate being able to read them when you do. Its great sharing the season with you!

Posted by Dennis Mitchell on 2010-11-15 22:20:37

Good questions, JT. Very good.

Great quote, by Orton, Doc.

For sure a different team with this line.

Posted by TJ Johnson on 2010-11-15 22:18:41

The run and the red-zone effectiveness likely means an O-line that&#8217s working, which gives me great hope. I&#8217ll have to watch the game closely tomorrow night and see what the line&#8217s doing.

Again, having only seen a little but read a bit about the game, what gave the D success? Did Kansas just stink it up, or did the D do something different?

Posted by jtomasik on 2010-11-15 21:55:09

The difference between the game against Oakland and the game against Kansas City is that Hochstein was basically replaced in the starting line-up by Harris and McBean was replaced by Vickerson. Its amazing what an upgrade at 1 position can do for the offense or the defense.

When Ayers comes back, how will that affect Haggan and Mays?

Posted by sleepyteak on 2010-11-15 21:54:00

JT -

For the most part, no. Lot of gap blocking, lots of pulling guards and some plain old man as well as some zone. I saw Beadles pull to the strongside at least twice. The real difference was simply that the players who have been the biggest problems on the OL have been Walton, - who had a great game and looks like he&#8217s learning in front of our eyes - Beadles, who doesn&#8217t have to slid laterally (as he did at RT)to his right to play LG (pulling is an entirely different motion, and it showed), Hochstein/Daniels aren&#8217t on the field and Ryan Harris, as Orton noted yesterday, has a serious mean streak. He looked strong and mobile, two very good signs.

So, the approach included some zone, mixed other approaches, all of which they&#8217ve done before. The real difference was the personnel, and they played their hearts out.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2010-11-15 21:35:50

Did the O-line go back to zone blocking?

Posted by jtomasik on 2010-11-15 21:27:52

Great read Doc. I always love your perspective. Keep these great articles coming.