A running discussion on the Cincinnati Reds and everything else in the baseball universe.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

2011 Pressing Question #3: Zack Greinke Remorse

Pressing Question #3: Will the Reds regret not acquiring the services Zack Greinke?

For the first time in forever, the Reds are in position where they have a surplus of starting pitching. However, the rotation lacks a legitimate number 1 starter. That makes it a rotation ideally suited for the grind of a 162-game season, but perhaps not for a short postseason series where Aces rule. Whether it's a 5 or 7 game series, chances are good that an Ace will get two or more starts. In such an environment, the Reds are at a distinct disadvantage in two games before the first pitch is even fired. So, the obvious question is should they have gone after the services of a young, former Cy Young award winner who actively sought out smaller market organizations in his quest for a new home?

Asking this question now as opposed to a couple weeks ago brings different considerations into play. Over the past couple of weeks, Greinke has been shutdown because of a rib fracture, Mike Leake has looked shaky at best in spring training, and Johnny Cueto has been hampered by forearm tightness. Obviously, that may change the equation to a certain extent.

Greinke was shutdown with a rib fracture which will linger into the beginning of the season and cost him a few starts. However, all he'll need to do is rest and then rebuild his arm strength, so the injury should be a once-and-done type problem, not a lingering issue.

As for Leake, he hit the ground running last year and looked like a legitimate #2 type starter. However, he faded in the middle months and was shutdown early with shoulder fatigue. Leake's Spring Training struggles may be nothing more than adjusting to the strength he added over the offseason, but it could also be lingering effects from the shoulder fatigue. At this point, it's questionable whether he is ready for the majors from an endurance and performance level standpoint.

Perhaps most disconcerting is Johnny Cueto's struggles with arm soreness. He was originally shut down for 8 days due to forearm tightness. At first glance, it seems a minor problem, but forearm tightness is frequently a precursor to Tommy John surgery. However, the Reds medical staff gave him a clean bill of health and ran him back out to the mound today. The results were not promising, as Cueto departed after throwing just one inning, this time complaining of bicep soreness. Obviously, not good. Not. Good. Hopefully, it ACTUALLY is nothing more than soreness, but it could ultimately be something much more serious.

Greinke suffers from social anxiety and is uncomfortable in many social situations, but he comfortably wears the label of #1 Starter. He has legitimate ace potential and in the past 3 seasons he has posted WARs of 4.9, 9.4, and 5.2. The 9.4 WAR season justifiably earned him a Cy Young award and may represent the high point of Greinke's career. Even so, last year only two Reds starters had WARs over 2.0, including Johnny Cueto at 2.8 and Travis Wood at 2.2.

It's looking like the Reds are in danger of losing their best pitcher from 2010 for a significant period of time. Even if Greinke never again approaches his Hall of Fame caliber season of 9.4 WAR, he still represents a 2.5 to 3.0 win improvement over everyone on the Reds staff unless they take a step forward. Given a larger sample size, it's likely that Travis Wood posts an improved WAR, but the Reds have more depth than high performance arms.

When you factor in that the improving NL Central has tightened up and gotten even more competitive, then you have to consider this something of a zero-sum game. If the Reds had acquired Greinke, then they would also have kept him away from a division rival. So, any gain by the Reds is essentially a corresponding loss for the Brewers. If Greinke returns to 9 wins above replacement, then that's a plus 9 for the Reds and a minus 9 wins in missed opportunity for the Brewers.

Obviously, only time will provide the answer to this question, but I think it was a mistake for the organization not to be an aggressive suitor on Greinke.

Stock - whoa now, that is giving up a little much there. I would loved to have Greinke but Mesoraco and Wood would have been untouchable. Give em some blocked prospects like Francisco (perfect AL DH) , Alonso and a choice of some pitchers like maloney, LeCure, Valqiuette.

Anonymous-In order to get Greinke the Reds would have had to give up prospects the Royals would be interested in. The Royals have Hosmer so no interest in a 1B. The Royals have Butler so no interest in a DH. Therefore Francisco and Alonso are of no interest to them. I would be indifferent about Escobar and Cain over Cozart and Sappelt if I were a Royals GM. Now you have to match Ordozzi and Jefferies. In addition to CF and SS, Positions of need for them include C, 2B and SP. That means two of Meso, Hamilton, Leake and Wood. I pulled Hamilton because I think he is untouchable. It sounds like you are in the camp of no deal is better than this deal and I totally understand. My thought is it is tough to advance in the post season without a bonafide #1 SP. My gut tells me that Greinke would take less than top dollar to stay in Cincinnati once he arrived. This adds to his value.

I don't know what type of deal would get it done, but we have more than enough talent to do it.

I don't think Sappelt or Heisey are sufficient replacements for Cain. Not huge on Cain, but he probably has more market value than those two.

I think Cozart and Escobar are similar in value, but for whatever reason Alcides has a higher profile and a higher trade value.

Personally, I wouldn't move Travis Wood and wouldn't be too keen on moving Mesoraco, but I would have been willing to include Yorman and a handful of others.

I've always been really high on Greinke and would have been willing to offer a package of higher value than what the Royals received. The chance to get a Cy Young winner to anchor the rotation is just too tempting.

Too much "homerism" in the front office if you ask me. Not that I do not enjoy the depth of our starting pitching, but Homer with his mental makeup might be at tops a number 2, Volquez with his control issues a number 2-3, Cueto with his "huh?" look on the mound a number 3, and Leake with his lack of any knockout pitches a number 3-4, the Reds absolutely need to look outside the organization for an ace.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that they have made their mind up keeping Chapman in the pen (because 65 innings and "saves" are more valuable than a potential 200 innings of top-tier starting pitching statistics...wait...).

In my most amateur of opinions, Wood has the most upside of the starters not named Chapman. No, he doesn't have 95+ heat, but he will sit 89-92 and touch 93-94, with potential, if not already, plus cutters and change-ups. He has demonstrated control and command of all his pitches and misses bats at a healthy rate. The only knock on him is his fly-ball rate, which may or may not have been an aberration last season-I'm not really sure.

And I don't buy the arguments against pitchers who are lacking in physical build. He could be a top of the shelf number 2. Again, I'm no pro at this whole scouting thing.

Okay, so maybe it's not a "safe bet" the Reds will keep Chapman in the pen, but every time they make statements about the matter I never come away thinking, "Boy...sure am glad those guys made it perfectly clear Chapman will be starting next season".

I agree with you on Wood. I like him a lot, as I love a good change-up. Wood also has a real nice feel for pitching. He's probably the best combination of stuff and polish on the staff. I still think Homer's biggest problem is his stubbornness, which is seemingly an insurmountable problem. I really question Edinson at this point, as I don't know what we have there and I'm not overly optimistic. I like Leake, but he's really been off this Spring Training, so I'm just hoping he's not injured. I'd love to have Greinke at the top of our rotation.

As for Aroldis, every step down the reliever path is a significant one. Given that Coco is coming off the books after this year, I really don't see the front office shifting him back to the rotation. He'll be entrenched in the bullpen and the need for a closer will make it tough to change his role.

I would have been willing to throw in Chapman. I think Cozart, Chapman and Leake would have been a no brainer for KC.

Likewise I would trade Chapman, Alonso, Cozart, Heisey and Frazier for Upton and Drew today. A lineup where Rolen and Hernanigan bat 7th and 8th and more importantly Votto, Upton and Bruce in the 3-5 slots, could win in the post season with average pitching.

Greinke is soft. I wouldn't be as high on him as you guys are. I would not trade Wood or Mesoraco. I would not trade away my future for two years of Zach Greinke. Who's collar may get a bit hot ACTUALLY HAVING TO PITCH IN GAMES THAT MATTER!!!!

Lark, I really love your blog. But you are focusing way to much on the Greinke thing. Talk about our prospects, i want to read that. Your questions about Rolen are my most pressing. However, i just got back from Arizona and was really pleasantly surprised with how J Fransisco played at third. He may not have the range of Rolen but his hands are good and his arm is good. He hits the ball as hard as anyone they have.

I'm not sure I am focusing on it TOO much. During his Cy Young winning season, he put up a 9.4 WAR. So, he was 9 wins better than replacement level. That's huge.

Just for darts, let's assume that Greinke would have replaced a 2-win pitcher in Cincy and that he is currently replacing a 2-win pitcher in Milwaukee. So, if Greinke returns to the 9-WAR level, then he'll represent a 7 win improvement for the Brewers.

And, of course, since the Reds failed to get him, they'll be missing out on a 7-win improvement in their pitching staff. So, if Greinke CAN reach that level, then it'll represent a 14-win swing between the Reds and Brewers.

It's almost like the AL East Cold War between the BoSox and Yankees. It's not just about improving your team, but about preventing your division rival from improving. I think that warrants a bit of discussion.

It'll be interesting to see how he does. I would prefer to see him pitch in front of the Reds defense, but Milwaukee has a more friendly ballpark. Both manage to avoid the DH, so he should be in line for a better season in 2011.

Thanks. The A's article was easy to write. The words were flowing right out of my fingertips, in part because the Rosenthal article was so biased as to be insulting. Judging by the big response, I think it worked its way somewhat around the A's fan base. I don't know if it hit the mark or not, but at the very least it got some discussion rolling.

As for what's on the horizon for this blog, I'm almost done with #9 on the prospect list. So, that's coming up soon. I'm also working on Step 3 for Rebuilding the Big Red Machine, which is requiring quite a bit of heavy lifting, so I'll probably have to break that down into two parts. I think it might be an interesting read about player valuation, so hopefully I can get that finished and posted in the near future. I'll also probably write up something about the financial structure of MLB, as I've got a few thoughts on that that may run counter to conventional wisdom.

Anyway, my production lately has admittedly been pathetic. Life is a bit of a grind right now, so it's slowing me down. Just need the time to write up all those thoughts bouncing around in my cranium.

You are taking into account only his best season. Last year, was he worthy of your top prospects? I like when the Brewers do this stuff. What i like to say is, they Sabathia'd themselves. Maybe they even make the playoffs this year, but over the long haul a small market team must play it smarter. Two major league quality young guys and two of your best a-ball pitchers. Jock is smart to not trade Yonder, in two years I see them trading Votto because no way he re signs. Yonder will be ready.

I am right to be so impressed with Mesoraco? Just got back from ST and his approach is excellent. His swing is short and explosive. He generates so much bat speed. And he gunned someone at 2nd off a breaking ball.

Like I said, J Fransisco wasn't bad at 3rd. He's pudgy so he won't have "as much" range. But Janish helps that. However, his hands and arm seem to be good. He played a real nice ball to his right and got the runner. And even his outs were line drives. He hits the ball hard. I'm still not sure because DEFENSE is so important. What are your thoughts?

And i don't want to read to much into spring training. But the pitching is just getting pounded. Even T Wood got lit up today. It's only spring training, but 10 to 14 runs a game this late is kind of troubling. With Cueto down. And as someone who was at the game they walked 11, I am sort of a little troubled.

Well, I suppose it's all in the eye of the beholder. Personally, I don't think the Brewers gave up very much. A mediocre centerfielder, an inconsistent shortstop with character questions, and two high risk pitchers (drugs, injury, development).

And, you're right, I'm only consider his best season. Chances are at least decent he won't ever reach that peak again, but it wasn't a fluke. He earned that level of performance, so it represents his peak. It's a level he can legitimately reach. You can't say that about any of the Reds current starters. Add in a switch to the easier non-DH league and (if he played for the Reds) an appreciably better defense behind him and I liked his chances to be an elite pitcher once again.

As for Yonder, I really don't see how we can hold on to him for 2 years just to be insurance for Votto. Personally, I don't buy Yonder anywhere but first base, so I can't see him cooling his heels for 2 seasons just as insurance. Not to mention, I don't think that would be an effective use of the organization's assets. I'd rather trade him for something to help us win now, then to hold on to him for the future.

You are right to be impressed with Mesoraco. He's suddenly very impressive. Great American Ballpark is heaven for righthanded hitters and Mesoraco should be benefiting in the very near future. I still wonder about the defense, but I'm very optimistic about him.

As for Francisco, I don't buy him at third, but Dusty loves him and I expect Juan to get a lot of playing time at the hot corner as Rolen's backup. And, I fully expect him to have a power hot streak that gets the fan base excited. Of course, it'll be a small sample size and unsustainable, but that's how I see it shaking out this year.

Yeah, I think the pitching performances have been more than bit disconcerting. Cueto's injury, Edinson's control problems, Leake's continuing impression of a gas can, and Homer's consistent inconsistency aren't great. Travis Wood is the only one that doesn't worry me.

Spring training stats don't mean much, but the WAY they are struggling isn't encouraging. There is still time for them to get it together and make Spring Training nothing more than a fleeting memory. But, each bad inning makes it a bit more worrisome.

About Me

Blessed (or is it cursed) to be a Reds fan. I've loved baseball as long as I can remember. Played it until they told me I couldn't anymore. Now, always thinking on it.
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