Jan 29, 2014

06:06 AM

Gallup State of the States: Connecticut's Democratic Lean is 11th Strongest

by Ben Doody

Connecticut's Democratic lean was the 11th strongest among the 50 states in 2013 -- the 12th strongest when the District of Columbia is included -- in Gallup's annual "State of the States survey, which measures how many voters identify with one of the two major political parties.

In the Nutmeg State, 48.5 percent of voters identify themselves as Democratic or leaning Democratic, compared to 32.4 percent who identify as Republican or leaning Republican. That gives Democrats, who control every major statewide office and Congressional seat and both houses of the General Assembly, an advantage of 16.1 percentage points.

In 2012, Democrats had a 17-point edge, putting Connecticut in a three-way tie for the sixth strongest Democratic lean.

New York, with a Democratic lean of 24.8 percentage points, has the heaviest Democratic lean among the states. Wyoming, with a Republican lean of 40.1 points, has the strongest GOP lean.

Hawaii, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, California, Illinois, Delaware and New Jersey all have a stronger Democratic lean than Connecticut.

Seventeen states have a pronounced Democratic lean, while 14 have a Republican lean, giving the Democrats a net lead of three states. (The other 19 states have a slight enough lean one way or another to be labeled as "competitive.") That's a four-state swing in the GOP's favor since 2012, when the Democrats had an edge of 19-12.

The numbers have shifted drastically since 2008, when the Democrats held a whopping 35-5 lead in the last year of George W. Bush's presidency.

Gallup State of the States: Connecticut's Democratic Lean is 11th Strongest