When I was in high school (~1960), two elderly Irish women, well into their 80s, who held controlling interest the Duquesne Brewery, came to California, to visit a friend’s family. That Summer, they taught me how to play Bridge. They were ruthless.

A bad bid or misplay was greeted with serious condescending comments, that usually closed with a reference my Italian heritage, or my disappointing youth. On the other hand, should I finesse a point, or salvage my partner’s hasty bid, I instantly became a boy genius. I was eager to please and became a decent Bridge player, at least in that company, that Summer.

I don’t believe I have ever had a life lesson like that. For the first time in my life, I was dealing with people who only cared about winning. Everything else was immaterial. Although I didn’t realize it at the time they returned to Pittsburgh, I was left a more balanced person.

It takes a lot to surprise me, and I assign a consistent gravity to everyone in the game. Not every winner is exceptional, and not every loser is insignificant. I am grateful to them for that.

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Somethings just succeed or fail, and we don’t know why. Why should we care?

Is it cause or effect? Are the relationships between statistics and the activities they measure predictive or consequential? Does it matter? It might depend on your expectations.

In a world where everything that happens can be measured and compared to everything that came before, we are buried in data that only has meaning when it’s related to some objective, be that analysis of the past or prediction of the future. The one thing we know for sure is there is no way to measure what is happening tomorrow. We simply have to wait for somethings to occur. We are, after all, more often witness, than producer. Not everything can be steered into our expected field of view.

The world of predictive analytics is filled with failure. When, chance and probability align, fortune smiles on the prognosticator. On the other hand, no matter how refined the analysis, circumstances can, and often do, intervene. One can go from brilliant to buffoon on the cusp of an unanticipated event. More than one well planned event has been ruined by an unseasonal rain storm or unexpected guest. So, what is that sends us on this fool’s errand? What are we trying to get ahead of, and why?

Maybe it’s better to be a cat, reacting to what is happening now, than be endlessly engaged in guessing at what is around the corner, without ever rounding that bend.

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Repost from June 11, 2011

This email from Rep Patrick Murphy arrived this morning:

“If you thought the fight to end Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell was finally over, think again.We all thought it was a done deal when President Obama signed the repeal into law. But House Republicans pulled a stunt that could delay or even stop the repeal from taking effect by passing an outrageous series of amendments to the bill that funds our military.We can’t stay silent in the face of this new GOP push to turn back the clock on repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t tell.”

The email was asking me to sign a DCCC petition. After signing, I thought about how typical this tactic, the GOP refusing to accept defeat, has become.

This ‘never say die’ tactic, despite having lost via Congressional votes, is building pressure on the structural capacity of our government. Democracies only survive when there is a peaceful transfer of power after elections and the focus shifts from Campaign rhetoric to the reassuring work of governing. When this stops happening, Democracies collapse and are replaced with Autocracies. We’re on our way there.

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“S’io credesse che mia risposta fosse

A persona che mai tornasse al mondo,

Questa fiamma staria senza piu scosse.

Ma perciocche giammai di questo fondo

Non torno vivo alcun, s’i’odo il vero,

Senza tema d’infamia ti rispondo.” – t.s. eliot

It was November 7th, 2018, when everything began to change. Those on the East Coast, who hadn’t stayed up for the California returns, awoke to front page headlines declaring a win for Democrats. They took control of the House handily, and squeaked by in the Senate, after a brutal political battle, that kicked off with the Kavanaugh confirmation to the Supreme Court. The Republican Party, or what was left of it, was in disarray. There was talk among some who made it through their contests, of abandoning the GOP caucus, or leaving politics altogether. As bright as prospects were for the Democrats, they were that dim for Republicans, many were worried about criminal investigations into their funding sources, for coordinating with foreign donors.

January 3rd, 2019 – The 116th Congress

No time was wasted by the newly energized Democrats, who elected Nancy Pelosi to the Speaker post she gave up in 2010. Committee assignments left nothing to the imagination. Staffing for hearings was the priority, with veteran democrats who weathered the sham Republican Committees taking lead positions and making it clear; no crime or ethics violation would be overlooked. Everything and everyone would be subpoenaed. This was going to be a merciless course correction for our democracy, and those who were party to undermining it would pay the price.

The priority was a two-pronged attack to impeach the President and bring criminal charges against the Vice President. The prospect of Speaker Pelosi ascending to the Presidency over the disgraced President and V.P. stunned what was left of Republican leadership. They were so disoriented, they may as well have been hit in the head with a 2×4. They would be given two options: resign immediately or be drug through televised public hearings and unceremoniously disgraced. The restoration of representative democracy and regular order was going to be a brutal lesson. We were looking at the rebirth of the Federal Republic and return of power to her citizens.

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Paul Ryan spent most of his career in the House, hidden away in finance committees, espousing abstract ideological platitudes about free market capitalism, self-reliance and balanced budgets. He was insulated from the realities and consequences of governance, so long as his impractical and potentially dangerous ideas were not adopted. It was in this environment that his reputation flourished.

However, once he came out of the shadows and took the Speaker’s job, that all changed. No longer hidden from the spotlight of political accountability, his ideology, once safely abstract, began transitioning into policy, and along with that metamorphosis, brought with it the insidious side effects of income distortion, social instability, demographic exclusion, reckless deregulation, exploitation of resources and a shift away from representative democracy, toward purchased power and money as a means of influence and control.

No longer able to hide the effects of his rhetorical shell game, Paul is taking what he has been able to accumulate for himself and leaving the mess he’s made, for others to clean up. The prospect of a popular backlash and potential criminal exposure, has him opting for a life of anonymity, away from the jeopardy of national politics. The changes he has brought forth have struck a blow at the foundation of unity and common purpose, damaging the national spirit. In the society he leaves behind, it’s everyone for themselves and the others be damned, investment for tomorrow is a sucker’s bet and history is being misrepresented in convenient ways, to sustain predatory agendas and bury untimely lessons of the past.

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In an unfortunate decision, that smacks of the muddled thinking of Trump’s followers and the Republican Congress, the L.A. Times stood on the sidelines, while editorial boards across the nation launched a counterattack against the political assault on freedom of the press, the foundational bulwark of democracy.

The editorial board of the L.A. Times “decided not to write about the subject on this particular Thursday because we cherish our independence.” However, choosing to stand on the principle of independence, while the country’s unity is being systematically fractured by domestic and foreign influences intent on disabling representative democracy, is a concession unworthy of a free press.

In a dismissive justification of their inaction, the L.A. Times explained: “We would not want to leave the impression that we take our lead from others, or that we engage in groupthink.” I would point out that the political process of galvanizing independent thinkers into an act of common purpose, is the democratic “groupthink” that allows us to periodically install a representative government to conduct the people’s business. When the Soviet Union threatened the sovereignty of European nations, and by extension, that of the United States, the ‘groupthink’ entity NATO was established, with the common purpose of insuring their defense and independence.

“Groupthink” may be a clever label used to disenfranchise thoughtless common action, but this was not a thoughtless act. This was a well thought out act of unification, taken for the purpose of preserving the free-flowing dialog that allows our independence to flourish.

Saying it is ok to drive on any side of the street you like doesn’t work. We need government to avoid self destruction.

The idea that government is the problem is being exploited for political advantage, for and by politicians who lack moral character. However inappropriate and illogical the tactic might be, it is effective. It wakes up the aimless, disenchanted and confused and puts them into an agitated, ready for action state of mind. Just point them in any direction and turn them loose. They will do something disruptive.

This tactic is sinister, intentional and unacceptable. It is a threat to our stability and security as a nation and a people. We are a socio-economic federal republic complex. We are held together by common purpose, spirit, desire and law. We use government to keep us on track. We are in this together. We are the government. We are not the enemy. We are the people.