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Chiefs Scoring Woes?

2

I keep hearing from the national sports media that the Chiefs can't score enough points to win in the playoffs, but is this true? We are giving up an average of 12.3 points per game, the best in the NFL. As far as I know we still get to use the same defense in the playoffs. Why is it assumed we will suddenly have to score more points?

I love to crunch numbers, so I looked at our first 8 games and did some analyses. Here is what I found:

1. In the Chiefs worst offensive performances they scored 17 points (twice). In the Chiefs worst defensive performances they gave up 17 points (twice). If the Chiefs only scored 17 points in every game this year, they would have won 6, lost 0 and tied 2 games (not taking overtime into account). If the Chiefs had given up 17 points in every game, they still would have been 6-0-2. To put it another way, our offense has never scored less points than our defense gave up in their worst games!

2. None of the teams we have played this year has scored more points than their season averages! Here are the numbers:

Team

Average PPG

Points scored
against Chiefs

% of Average

Jax

10.8

2

19%

Dal

28.8

16

56%

Phi

22.0

16

73%

NYG

17.9

7

39%

Ten

20.7

17

82%

Oak

18.0

7

39%

Hou

17.9

16

92%

Cle

18.5

17

92%

Cumulative
Average PPG

Cumulative
Vs. Chiefs

Cumulative
% of Average

154.1

91

59%

3. The Chiefs are averaging 24.0 points per game. I looked at the likely and possible AFC playoff teams we might face and calculated what they would score if the Chiefs defense held them to 59% of their average points per games.

Team

Average PPG

Expected Points
vs. Chiefs

Den

42.9

25

NE

22.4

13

Cin

24.6

14

Ind

26.7

16

SD

24

14

Ten

20.7

12

Bal

21.4

13

Mia

21.7

13

Notice that among these 8 teams only Denver would score more than the Chiefs average of 24 points per game and that is only by one point!

3. There are only 3 teams in the AFC that are scoring more points per game than the Chiefs.

1. Den 42.9
2. Ind 26.7
3. Cin 24.6
4. Chiefs 24.0
4. SD 24.0

The Chiefs are scoring almost as much as the next 2 teams ahead of us. Only Denver outscores the Chiefs by a wide margin.

Barring injury, the Chiefs offense should continue to improve in the 2nd half of the season, but even if they don't, their defense is good enough to win or at least keep the games competitive. I reject the argument that the Chiefs can't score enough to win in the playoffs. They are already doing it.

Last edited by TopekaRoy; 10-28-2013 at 10:21 PM.

***Official Chiefs Crowd Game Thread Starter***

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Topeka, add in the fact that our offense is improving and doing more things every week. I think we will be fine (to me fine means competitive against the top teams and in the playoffs).

Thanks for looking at the numbers and breaking it down for us. It really helps to show everyone the sky isn't falling. Would I like to see more offensive production and flash? Yes, but I think our offense is "good enough," as our undefeated record shows.

Nicely done. I agree we do score enough. Will it be enough against a high powered O?? I think we still need to improve to closer to 30 pts a game average to go deep in playoffs. But I think we are a work in progress and are a good TE and WR from being the most balanced team in NFL.

GREAT STUFF Roy!!!! Truth is our offense is not scoring as many points as they should be. We've seen what they can do and it is excellent! They are just not showing their full potential as often as they should be. IMO if we have a "weak link" it is our O-line. If they can pick up their game a bit then there is no team out there that we can't throttle. We REALLY need to focus like a laser on Buffalo and then get to the bye week and get everybody that is dinged up healthy again.

GREAT STUFF Roy!!!! Truth is our offense is not scoring as many points as they should be. ...

I agree 100%, except that I would say "our offense is not scoring as many points as they could be." But, as I'm sure you understand, that is an entirely different argument from "We aren't scoring enough points to win in the playoffs." As I illustrated above, if our offense plays to its average of 24 points and we get "average" play out of our defense, we outscore every AFC playoff team except the Donkeys. To beat them either our defense or our offense would have to play slightly above average. Since they are a bitter division rival I think the Chiefs could do that especially if we have home field advantage.

Overall the Chiefs and Dolts are tied for 13th highest scoring team in the NFL, just slightly above the median of 22.85 PPG. Lucky for us 9 of the 12 teams that are outscoring us are in the NFC, so we don't have to worry about them unless we make it to the Super Bowl. If you (the media) are going to say we can't score enough to win in the playoffs, you would have to say the same thing about every AFC team except Denver. But Denver can't play all of the AFC playoff teams, so some of them will beat each other. Therefore, "The Chiefs can't score enough points to win in the playoffs" is proven false.

The Chiefs could score more based on their offensive talent even with the O-line struggles. I saw so many wide open dropped passes in the last two games. Those weren't the fault of the o-line and Smith hit those players right were he needed to. That is just a lack of concentration. Penalties, which are also correctable, have also stalled some of our drives.

The Chiefs should have scored between 6 and 14 more points in the last two games. One extra touchdown per game would give us an average of 31 PPG. Combine that with our defense and the Chiefs would be unstoppable! I think the Chiefs have played down to the level of their competition so far, doing just enough to win. I don't think that is by design, but I do think Reid is holding back on the offense and we will be more aggressive, and more productive, when we need to be. We will find out in less than 3 weeks.

Last edited by TopekaRoy; 10-29-2013 at 07:19 AM.

***Official Chiefs Crowd Game Thread Starter***

This space is reserved for something that has nothing whatsoever to do with MatthewsChiefs. (Whoever THAT is!)

Now is KC offense averaging 17 or is this with combine points from defense and special teams?

No. The Chiefs have not scored less than 17 points in any game this year. The team (offense, defense and special teams) has averaged 24 points per game. Football is a team sport and defensive and special teams points count just as much as offensive points do.

***Official Chiefs Crowd Game Thread Starter***

This space is reserved for something that has nothing whatsoever to do with MatthewsChiefs. (Whoever THAT is!)

I agree 100%, except that I would say "our offense is not scoring as many points as they could be." But, as I'm sure you understand, that is an entirely different argument from "We aren't scoring enough points to win in the playoffs." As I illustrated above, if our offense plays to its average of 24 points and we get "average" play out of our defense, we outscore every AFC playoff team except the Donkeys. To beat them either our defense or our offense would have to play slightly above average. Since they are a bitter division rival I think the Chiefs could do that especially if we have home field advantage.

Overall the Chiefs and Dolts are tied for 13th highest scoring team in the NFL, just slightly above the median of 22.85 PPG. Lucky for us 9 of the 12 teams that are outscoring us are in the NFC, so we don't have to worry about them unless we make it to the Super Bowl. If you (the media) are going to say we can't score enough to win in the playoffs, you would have to say the same thing about every AFC team except Denver. But Denver can't play all of the AFC playoff teams, so some of them will beat each other. Therefore, "The Chiefs can't score enough points to win in the playoffs" is proven false.

The Chiefs could score more based on their offensive talent even with the O-line struggles. I saw so many wide open dropped passes in the last two games. Those weren't the fault of the o-line and Smith hit those players right were he needed to. That is just a lack of concentration. Penalties, which are also correctable, have also stalled some of our drives.

The Chiefs should have scored between 6 and 14 more points in the last two games. One extra touchdown per game would give us an average of 31 PPG. Combine that with our defense and the Chiefs would be unstoppable! I think the Chiefs have played down to the level of their competition so far, doing just enough to win. I don't think that is by design, but I do think Reid is holding back on the offense and we will be more aggressive, and more productive, when we need to be. We will find out in less than 3 weeks.

I agree totally that the chiefs have played down to their opponents. Not by design but by necessity. It just makes sense that when we need points the offense WILL open up with more downfield plays. This team has adopted the thought process of get an early lead and do whatever is needed to keep that lead. So this playing down to opponents levels could be by design because it's the lack of aggressive play calling that is probably keeping us from scoring a whole bunch.

when we are losing our offense marches down the field with ease and they've shown that quite a few times! that's where my optimism comes from.

The key to playing a high scoring offense like the Donks is ball control, ball control, ball control! We do not want to get into a shootout with Manning. Move the ball using several plays that eats a lot of clock which keeps our defense fresh and Manning on the sideline. A relatively low scoring affair favors the Chiefs.