I've always valued other people's opinions because let's face it, nobody knows it all no matter how hard someone tries.

So I am asking you should I go through with it, should I scrap it and bet on another NFL game on Sunday. I've contemplated firing it all on the Chargers Saturday and if I win that, to let it ride on the Patriots.

Let me know your thoughts, I am not interested in any of those lame bowl games on Saturday or the crappy Thursday night game.

Just a few weeks left! Hopefully there will be no more blizzards that get in the way of our picks going forward.

This week, we'll be looking at teams whose record on paper is not indicative of their actual skill level.

Using a tool called "Pythagorean plus/minus" at Bet Labs Sports, we can find teams whose record is better or worse than their point differential suggests it should be.

Many of you out there have probably heard of the Pythagorean Theorem, but you may not have heard of a Pythagorean record or Pythagorean plus/minus.

A Pythagorean record or expectation uses a team's point differential to show what its record should be rather than what it is. The Pythagorean plus/minus is simply the number you get when you subtract the team's actual winning percentage from its Pythagorean winning percentage. If it's positive, the team is underperforming, and if it's negative, the team is overperforming.

The stat was created for baseball by legendary statistician Bill James, and a terrific example of how a team's Pythagorean expectations can come back to bite it is available in the 2016 MLB season. That year, the Texas Rangers went 36-11 in one-run games, an MLB record. This allowed them to win 95 games with a run differential of just plus-8, 13 more wins than their Pythagorean record suggests. This past year, however, their luck ran dry, and they fell back to earth with just 78 wins.

This Bill Barnwell article from August touched on five teams that should have improved this year using Pythagorean expectations from the 2016 season, and they included the Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers. Not too shabby.

There are also some more great examples in the NFL this year, though. For example, the Buffalo Bills and Chargers both have 7-6 records. However, the Chargers have outscored their opponents by 73 points while the Bills have been outscored by 50 points. Same record on paper, but the Chargers are clearly much better when looking at point differential.

I went ahead and looked at teams at this point of the season whose winning percentage is at least 10 percent worse than their Pythagorean winning percentage. Historically, betting on these teams has been quite profitable.

Looking at Pythagorean records and point differentials is not exactly something that casual football fans do on a regular basis. In fact, I'm sure it's something that never crosses their mind.

Since we're so late in the season, bettors have already made their minds up about most teams. Square bettors don't all necessarily hate or dislike these underperforming teams, but it's safe to say that they're generally overlooked for the most part.

Obviously, a team like the Chargers isn't going to get as much respect with a 7-6 record as they would with an 8-5 or 9-4 record, which is what their Pythagorean record suggests. With bettors and oddsmakers setting their expectations lower for these teams than they should, we can pick up some extra value on the spread.

There are five teams remaining in the league with a winning percentage of at least 10 percent worse than their Pythagorean record suggests. Unfortunately, two of them, the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns, are playing each other this week, so they'll have to be omitted.

Week 15 system matches

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs

The aforementioned Chargers and Chiefs will play a crucial game this weekend as far as the AFC West is concerned. And to make it even more entertaining, the game is on Saturday.

This game is close to a pick 'em around the betting market. On one hand, you have the underperforming Chargers, and on the other, you have the Chiefs, who have spiraled out of control since their undefeated start.

Bettors are having a tough time with this one so far, with spread bets close to 50/50. Will the Chiefs return to form with another divisional home win, or will the Chargers overtake the division lead with their fifth consecutive victory?

The pick: Chargers -1

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-10)

The Jaguars were last season's biggest underperformer, and they're making Bill Barnwell and his readers look like geniuses with their nine wins this season. However, we're going to have to hold off on the Sacksonville hype for a bit; their opponent this week fits the Pythagorean mold.

The Texans have not had the best luck this season. They've lost DeShaun Watson, J.J. Watt and a slew of other defensive players for the season. At 4-9, they're looking at a top-10 draft pick in 2018, but their minus-23 point differential suggests that they should have a couple more wins. In fact, the 8-5 Titans have a differential of just two points better!

We'll have to be brave and bet on T.J. Yates, but 10.5 points is not a bad deal for this team.

The pick: Texans +10.5

Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Another 4-9 team, the Bucs have dealt with some bad luck of their own. They've been forced to start Ryan Fitzpatrick a handful of times, and Jameis Winston has never appeared to be at 100 percent when he has played. Though their point differential of minus-48 isn't quite as extreme as Houston's, they should still be better than a 4-9 team.

With just 18 percent of the early spread bets, I can definitely see this line moving to the key number of seven before week's end. A seven-point home dog is never a bad bet in my book.

The pick: Buccaneers +6.5

Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
]]>NFL Football ForumHache Manhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100626http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100615&goto=newpost
Wed, 13 Dec 2017 20:07:08 GMTTodd McShay's 2018 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
Todd McShay
ESPN INSDER

Yes, it's that time again already.

Below is my first 2018 NFL mock draft, which projects all 32 first-round picks. Obviously, a ton will change between now and April 26, including the final draft order, team needs, free agency and grades on many of our top prospects as they go through the postseason process. Some of the players included here are underclassmen who haven't yet decided whether they'll enter the 2018 draft, and some teams will inevitably undergo regime changes in the coming weeks.

Two important notes:

1. We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project what the order will be at the end of the season, with the two traded first-round picks accounted for. You can read more about how FPI projects the order here.

2. All juniors or redshirt sophomores are noted with an asterisk.

1. Cleveland Browns

Sam Darnold, QB, USC*

The Browns have a really good chance to have two picks in the top 10 of this draft. With the No. 1 pick, they must address their QB situation. I believe Rosen is the more polished quarterback right now, but Darnold has the higher ceiling at the next level. We've spent a lot of time focusing on Darnold's questionable decision-making and poor footwork (as well as his being turnover prone), but that was behind a porous offensive line and with a pass-catching corps with a lot of youth. Darnold played very well down the stretch, with nine TDs and only two INTs in his final five games. It isn't easy to turn down guaranteed money and the potential of being the No. 1 pick, but most talent evaluators think he'd benefit long-term from another year at USC. Darnold will have to make a difficult decision after the Cotton Bowl.

2. New York Giants

Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA*

This is another team with a lot of holes, but none is more glaring than at QB. Eli Manning will be 37 at the start of the next season, and the Giants' offense hasn't scored 30 points in a game since the 2015 season (30 straight games). Davis Webb hasn't been able to get on the field, and Geno Smith isn't the long-term answer at the position. Rosen outplayed Darnold in their recent matchup, and I came away impressed from watching him from the sideline. Rosen is the most NFL-ready QB in this class. The biggest challenge for him will be selling teams on his love/need for the game and his "coachability."

3. Indianapolis Colts

Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

This team has needs all over, but it is one of the few in the top 10 that should be set at QB, with a (presumably) healthy Andrew Luck coming back next season. Without an offensive tackle worthy of such a high pick, I'm looking for edge help here. Chubb has a great skill set and a nonstop motor, and he has played his way into being a top-10 pick. He is a plug-and-play starter.

4. San Francisco 49ers

Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama*

Saquon Barkley could make sense here, but the 49ers have Matt Breida and could re-sign pending free agent Carlos Hyde. Just like his dad did throughout his career, Shanahan has always believed in his ability to identify RB talent that fits his system in later rounds; I'm guessing he and John Lynch will employ a similar strategy. The 49ers have invested heavily on the defensive line in recent drafts, but they need an infusion of talent in the secondary. Fitzpatrick is a true shutdown cornerback who has the versatility to play safety as well.

5. Denver Broncos

Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming*

Even after taking Paxton Lynch No. 26 overall in 2016, the Broncos are clearly still in need of a franchise QB. Lynch has thrown only 97 passes in two seasons, and he was beaten by Trevor Siemian for the starting QB spot this season. If Denver doesn't address the position in free agency, Allen should be the pick. There's no question that he struggled this season at Wyoming and needs to improve his decision-making, but he lost four of his skill position players from 2016 to the NFL. Allen has an elite arm and is a physical freak in terms of his skill set. His stock should rise in the postseason process.

6. Cleveland Browns (from Texans)

Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State*

The Browns have plenty of needs but can afford a luxury pick after taking their QB at No. 1. While Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson are a nice pairing, Barkley is a far superior player to both. My No. 2 overall prospect, Barkley is clearly the best running back in college football. He's also the best running back to come out of college since Adrian Peterson, and he would do well behind Cleveland's strong offensive line.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson*

There is still some hope for an edge rush in Tampa Bay with Noah Spence (on injured reserve), but the Bucs are dead last in the NFL with 17.0 sacks this season, and the defense has been porous (31st in total points). Ferrell is a hard worker, and the light has come on recently. He has been steadily rising up my board after a terrific performance against Syracuse (3.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL) and is explosive off the edge. A third-year sophomore, he could also return to Clemson.

8. Chicago Bears

Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Mitchell Trubisky has had an inconsistent rookie campaign, but the Bears have been plagued by injuries at the wide receiver position in recent years. Ridley is the clear top wideout in this class, with outstanding foot speed and good acceleration. He has averaged 16.2 yards per catch this season, but his stats in Alabama's run-heavy offense don't reflect his true talent.

9. New York Jets

Arden Key, DE, LSU*

The Jets are another QB-needy team, but in this mock, the top three QBs are all already off the board. This is a spot where Baker Mayfield could be considered (or Allen if he's still available). The pass rush needs help, though, and Key is the most talented natural edge rusher in the draft. He left LSU this summer for personal reasons and has been banged up this season (only 4.0 sacks), so his draft stock could slip a bit, but the talent is there.

10. Cincinnati Bengals

Connor Williams, OT, Texas*

The Bengals have had a disappointing season, and the offensive line is a big reason for that. Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher (out for the season with an irregular heartbeat) haven't played up to their draft potential, and Cincinnati is in the bottom third in sacks allowed (33) after giving up 41 last season. Guard Quenton Nelson could help here, but Williams is the best offensive lineman and is a better value proposition at No. 10.

11. Arizona Cardinals

Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

This is another potential landing spot for Baker Mayfield, as Carson Palmer's status for the 2018 season is unknown. But if it's not QB (or CB), offensive line makes sense for a Cardinals team that has allowed the second-most sacks (44) in the NFL this season and needs upgrades at several spots. McGlinchey doesn't have elite tools, but he has good experience and is a well-rounded player. He is a high-floor pick.

12. Oakland Raiders

Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State*

The Oakland passing defense has been a sieve this season, allowing 7.7 yards per attempt (27th), and 2017 first-round pick Gareon Conley is still an unknown after playing only two games this season. Ward lacks ideal starting experience but has been exceptional this season at Ohio State. He's the best pure man-to-man cover corner in this class.

13. Washington Redskins

Derwin James, S, Florida State*

This is one of the tougher picks to predict, as the direction will be dictated by what happens with Kirk Cousins. If he's back, the best player on the board is James, who is an extremely versatile safety and will likely test well at the combine. In a division with Alshon Jeffery, Odell Beckham Jr. and Dez Bryant at wide receiver, you can't have enough secondary help.

14. Miami Dolphins

Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame*

Guard is a glaring need for the Dolphins, who need to protect whomever is at QB and get more push in the running game. Nelson is the most NFL-ready offensive lineman in this class and a road-grader (listed at 6-foot-5, 235 pounds). He's ready to start right away.

15. Buffalo Bills

Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia*

Another team with potential QB issues, we'll know more about the Bills' commitment to Tyrod Taylor (and Nathan Peterman) after this season and free agency. Linebacker is another clear area of need, though, and Smith is the most athletic off-the-line linebacker in this class. A true sideline-to-sideline player, he can do it all and is a perfect fit for the modern NFL.

16. Dallas Cowboys

Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson*

The Cowboys have generated good pressure up front, thanks to DeMarcus Lawrence's 13.5 sacks, but he'll be a free agent. Last year's first-round pick, Taco Charlton, should help as well, but the Cowboys need to bolster the interior of that defensive line. Wilkins has experience both inside and outside on an outstanding Clemson D-line, but I believe his best fit is inside as a 3-technique. He has the foot speed and quick hands to slip blocks and is a stout run-defender.

17. Green Bay Packers

Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College

Depending on what happens with pending free agent Davante Adams, wide receiver could be a need here. I'm going defense for Green Bay, though. Landry was my No. 4 prospect going into the season, but he might fall in the draft a bit due to an injury-riddled senior season. He is a naturally gifted edge rusher who led the nation in 2016 with 16.5 sacks.

18. Detroit Lions

Tremaine Edmunds, DE/OLB, Virginia Tech*

Detroit has plenty of needs on defense but must be encouraged by the play of 2017 first-round LB Jarrad Davis. Regardless of whether the Lions re-sign pending free agent Ezekiel Ansah, Detroit needs more edge rushers. Edmunds has the versatility to cover and rush the passer, and he is a gifted athlete at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds. He'll likely test well at the combine.

19. Los Angeles Chargers

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Orlando Brown is an option at offensive tackle here, but this is a good time for the Chargers to take a successor to 36-year-old Philip Rivers. Los Angeles passed on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson last draft, but Mayfield is too intriguing to pass on here. Perhaps no prospect has improved his stock more in 2017 than Mayfield, who was my ninth-ranked QB coming into the season, with a midround grade. The Heisman winner is an exceptional leader and could play himself into the first round with a good showing in the College Football Playoff.

20. Tennessee Titans

Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa*

The Titans have spent a lot of recent draft capital on the offensive side of the ball, so I'm looking defense here. They need an edge rusher, but there isn't one to match the spot, so I'll look to the secondary. Adoree' Jackson has looked the part, but Tennessee needs more help on the outside. Josh Jackson is a long CB with natural cover ability and tremendous ball skills. He flashed with three INTs against Ohio State.

21. Buffalo Bills (from Chiefs)

Vita Vea, DT, Washington*

After trading Marcell Dareus to Jacksonville midseason, Buffalo's run defense has suffered. Listed at 6-foot-4, 346 pounds, Vea is a former high school running back and an absolute block-eater in the middle of Washington's defense. However, he also has the quickness and athleticism to get into the backfield. He could continue to rise with an impressive combine performance.

22. Baltimore Ravens

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M*

Former first-round pick Breshad Perriman hasn't been able to stay on the field, and this offense really lacks playmakers. Kirk has been inconsistent, but he has the speed to take the top off a defense. He is also a great punt returner.

23. Atlanta Falcons

Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama

Help on the defensive line is an option with Dontari Poe and Courtney Upshaw both free agents and Derrick Nnadi and Mo Hurst still available. However, in today's NFL, you can't have enough playmakers in the secondary. Harrison is an underrated prospect and has star potential in the NFL at the free safety position. He has been all over the field for a very good Alabama defense.

24. Seattle Seahawks

Derrius Guice, RB, LSU*

Seattle has seemingly had a revolving door at RB and needs some stability at the position to take pressure off Russell Wilson. Guice definitely isn't Leonard Fournette, but he has great quickness and the ability to break tackles. He dealt with some nagging injuries but has been a workhorse for LSU down the stretch, averaging 22 carries and 132 yards per game in his past six. Offensive line is also an option here for the Seahawks.

25. Carolina Panthers

Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma*

Carolina is another team that is looking for an edge rusher, but it might struggle with value here. Brown is the son of the late Orlando "Zeus" Brown, and he played left tackle at Oklahoma, but I think he might be better suited at RT in the NFL. He has tremendous talent but will benefit from shedding some weight and improving his foot quickness. He would give Carolina some insurance for Matt Kalil.

26. Los Angeles Rams

Billy Price, G/C, Ohio State

A plug-and-play starter, Price will help an improved Rams offense line on the inside. A four-year starter, Price is playing center for the Buckeyes this season, but I see him at guard for Los Angeles. He should be a steady starter.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars

Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU*

The Jaguars need help at tight end and potentially quarterback, but there aren't any worthy of being drafted here, in my opinion. Sutton would offer another pass-catching weapon for Blake Bortles (or a new QB) to go with that ferocious defense.

28. New Orleans Saints

Mo Hurst, DT, Michigan

New Orleans could use more depth and versatility on an improving defensive line, and Hurst would be a good value at this point in the draft. The Saints could also go for Mayfield here if he's still available.

29. Minnesota Vikings

Martinas Rankin, OT, Mississippi State

The depth of this roster is showing this season, as Case Keenum has stepped in at QB, and the Vikings haven't missed a beat. There aren't many glaring holes on this team, but Minnesota could still use reinforcements on the offensive line. A former JUCO transfer, Rankin performed well against good SEC competition.

30. New England Patriots

Ben Banogu, DE/OLB, TCU

Bill Belichick loves to collect versatile edge defenders, and Banogu fits the bill. A former transfer from Louisiana Monroe, he didn't get much national attention this season but was always around the ball on the tapes I studied and was highly productive (15.5 TFL, 8.5 sacks).

31. Pittsburgh Steelers

Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State*

This is a bit of a reach for the top tight end in this class -- I have a mid- to late-second-round grade on him -- but Goedert is an underrated talent who has dominated his small-school competition. He has the athletic ability to give linebackers issues, and his size (6-foot-4, 258 pounds) is trouble for CBs. The postseason process will be big for him to prove he belongs.

32. Philadelphia Eagles

Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

The Eagles have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL, though offensive tackle could be an issue if 35-year-old Jason Peters isn't the same coming back from his knee injury. Another versatile linebacker such as Evans, who has had a strong senior campaign, is a good pick to help bolster an elite defense.
]]>NFL Football ForumHache Manhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100615Chonce NFL (week 15)http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100608&goto=newpost
Wed, 13 Dec 2017 19:20:21 GMTLast week (link (http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1099786)): 4-3 + .36
Year to Date:...Last week (link): 4-3 + .36

Year to Date: 68-53 + 13.64 units

NE - 2.5 (-120) - 2 units
SF (ML) (-125) - 2 units

]]>NFL Football Forumchoncehttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100608Week 15 Nfl 2017... The Return of Rodger$http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100577&goto=newpost
Wed, 13 Dec 2017 07:41:55 GMTPerhaps Aaron coming back can help us.
Wait on that for another day.
Deeper digging is needed....Perhaps Aaron coming back can help us.
Wait on that for another day.

peanuts-christmasgif
]]>NFL Football Forumbillbeaterhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100577My Thursady night NFL football selection with in-depth and precise NFL football analysis to boot!http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100558&goto=newpost
Wed, 13 Dec 2017 01:59:56 GMTI like Ind. plus the 2.5 football points caz they be good on Thursday night. In addition, the Ind....I like Ind. plus the 2.5 football points caz they be good on Thursday night. In addition, the Ind. players' are very

very mad that the Dev. team is favorite in this here game and they already did somethings about it. For example,

one of the Dev players asked one of the Ind. players if he could break a $20 dollar bill and the Ind. player said no

he could not, even though he 49 one dollars bills in his football jockstrap.

Another Ind. player ask a Dev. player if he could give him directions to the nearest Starbucks and he gave him

directions to DD'S. Shut the front door!

Also , I believe that Ind. is the much more gooder team so, for all these here reasons, I am taking them

P.S. Whats even more hilarious is after Wentz went down now all of a sudden everyone loves the Saints.

@):@
]]>NFL Football ForumLoves2kickasshttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100495Early nfl playhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100478&goto=newpost
Tue, 12 Dec 2017 03:05:00 GMTSeattle -1.5 big thats game is to big for them for a playoff push.
glSeattle -1.5 big thats game is to big for them for a playoff push.

gl
]]>NFL Football ForumPokerdeuce211http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100467Tally for Monday night....http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100466&goto=newpost
Tue, 12 Dec 2017 01:07:08 GMTSo far....as of 7:05pm
New England 15
Miami 5
for those who are interested in it...So far....as of 7:05pm

New England 15
Miami 5

for those who are interested in it...
]]>NFL Football Forum3pointdoghttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1100466