DeFratus. Not sure why anyone is so sure he can’t close. Madson wasn’t a closer and he grew into it, for just one example from recent memory. Lots of guys with nasty breaking balls and good velocity do. Not saying DeFratus is overly likely to do so, but to discount the possibility that he can close at this point seems premature, and assuming somehow that Aumont is so much a better bet as a closer seems to be discounting his control.

I had Aumont just ahead of DeFratus, because his stuff is so filthy, but I don’t think DeFratus slider is anything less than plus right now and only likely to mature as he continues to refine his command. If he’s healthy, of course. So if your beef is his health, I guess I got no beef with you.

I don’t agree but I can see it, if you think that Wright can be a starter long term and couple it with him going Reading and having the fall back plan of being at least a LOOGY but more likely a multi inning guy who can get lefties and righties out, there is definitely an argument to be made. If you don’t think he is a starter long term and just a reliever than I think he falls to around 20 or so, still a very good prospect.

Yep I’m counting him as a starter because he’s been solid enough that I can’t assume he will get moved to the bullpen. I really took a liking to Morgan and Wright after their 2011 performances and neither of them have done anything to really disappoint yet. If Wright maintains his Clearwater performance in Reading (hopefully he can get walks to 3.5 per 9 or lower) I think there isn’t really a question of who should be ranked higher unless Watson is racking up 12 k/9 wherever he pitches.

Based on raw tools, Wright is better then Watson- Wright has better current velocity, a stronger frame, and has performed at a higher level as a lefty. Would I trade Wright for Watson? Probably not, but it wouldn’t be rediculous.

Yes. I am probably incorrectly holding his 27 innings against him, but there are other reasons to reserve a high ranking for Gueller. He was not highly ranked as a pitcher as an amateur. Keith Law and ESPN are the only sources that thought he was worthy of 1st round. So he was a sleeper type pick, not a universal 1st round talent. Also, I did not read anywhere that he was impressive in “instructs”, in fact, I read that he was not impressive the 1st game of instructs.
As for his 27 innings, they came over 8 games, and I cannot recall a good outing. Plus he couldn’t strike out HS hitters in the GCL.
If you have no good information on a player, how can you hold it against anybody for not assuming he is any good?

You are correct sir, he didn’t do very well at instructs, in fact he performed poorly. Maybe even had a sore limb. And Keith Law’s opinion is garbage, so I suggest you quit reading his stuff, it might rub off on you.

Because there is a clear pattern of ballot box stuffing by a single individual who shall remain nameless.

I think that this time (as opposed to the previous times when ballot box stuffing occurred), the ballot box stuffing coincided with a fairly high level of real support. It stinks that the people running the site have to make judgment calls about this, but one bad apple has forced them into this position. The fact that the vote was as close as it was despite the ballot box stuffing makes it an easy judgment call (and I assume the decision makers have evidence available to them that we don’t).

You can follow the voting patterns, there have been huge jumps by certain players who had not been receiving votes (and would not in subsequent polls), people were noticing that most of the votes would come in groupings where they would periodically get 40 out of a set of 50 votes as opposed to the normal distribution over a day. The biggest tell is that there has been little to no support in the comments for those receiving these votes, for example yesterday 3 people said they voted for Valle and at least 17 posted they had voted for Greene. It really has been a matter of following the trends and many people have pitched in posting updates to keep an eye on how it has gone.

In the past week I have banned 14 distinct FreeAEC IPs, depending on your connection to the internet it is a constantly changing thing.

At the end of this I will try and graph the voting patterns of players and you can see the sudden spikes, for instance yesterday Greene’s vote count jumped by 88 and Valle’s jumped by 150 after barely increasing the previous day. The only logic is that all of the Watson voters had Valle next or the JDF voters gave up magically and voted for Valle, or the JDF votes were ballot stuffing and that went to Valle this time. I suspect Valle will actually win today with less votes than he had yesterday

I’m surprised to see such a sentiment from a poster whose handle I recognize. When the number of votes for a certain player jumps ten-fold in a very short time period, with no comments or votes being registered for other players, there is definite ballot-stuffing going on. It is naive to believe otherwise.

Nobody on this site turning away legitimate vote results because of a bias against a certain player.

You’re kidding, right? Give me a break. You like Valle more than most of us, fine. Vote for him. Advocate for him. He’s likely to win legitimately today in any event.

But if you have been paying any attention over the past two weeks, you have to know about the attempts by a certain someone to ruin the site generally and this poll specifically, and the heroic efforts of the people running the site to stop him from doing so. And what do they get in return – vile libel from the likes of you.

Just look at this
He doesn’t even get a hold of this, just strong enough to get it out of here for a 3 run jack. Just imagine him in CBP, that’s if he changed his approach which I have heard he is working on this offseason.

If you watch this you can see Valle’s big load process where he lifts his leg and then times when he puts it down. Its this big load process that I’ve always thought causes him to be off balance at times and to have trouble identifying the strike zone, there’s just too much movement pre-swing. Good luck hitting the ball to right field with that load. However, its this big load that is the source of his power so he’s stayed with it. Every year, it does get a little less dramatic but I’ve always thought it would hold him back when he faced better pitchers.

Solid observation Maybe Chooch can talk some sense into him in ST. I think he has the hit tool he just need to work on letting the ball travel a little longer and trusting his hands are quick enough to get to the ball.

Chooch is a savvy hitter in that I think he sets up a pitcher better than anyone I’ve seen in quite some time. He will alternate from swinging early in a count to seeing pitches and often seeing two strikes.

Approach Approach Approach self scouting and seeing the same things the advance scouts are seeing could immensly improve his production.

Interesting thought, but the leg kick is just a timing mechanism, though i would never teach anyone to do it that way, many ML players have done it successfully hell it is the reason Jose Bautista hit so many HRs lately. It is all about keeping the weight back and getting the foot down early enough to swing. If you search the milb videos for valle there is another home run where his swing coincides with placing the foot down and he crushed the ball. Valle’s problem at the plate is just between his ears (eyes and brain). so many years of always swinging in mexico to get noticed have left him with no discipline at all and as he has moved up and the pitches have gotten better the easy BB’s have disappeared. After saying that the guy can rake and I would venture to guess that his opinion overall for his play last year was successful, so why would he change much. The couple of time i have seen him granted not very many i like the action of his hands and how he keep them inside the ball. He actually reminds me a lot of Benito Santiago another free swinger with pop.

And Santiago had a decent (though by no means exceptional) contact rate. I’ve made a couple of positive comments about Valle lately, but what’s deadly about his current profile is the combination of a low BB rate and a high K rate. He needs to bring that ratio to a more respectable level to have a real chance at more than a career as a backup.

I went with DeFratus but there’s plenty of other reasonable choices also. Wright, Gueller and Valle seem to be getting lots of votes now. I actually have Walding and Cozens next but I may have to rethink it. The reality is that we could throw a bunch of guys in a hat because there’s a decent group of guys in this next tier that could break through next year to be real prospects but are just on the outside right now.

It kind of takes some of the fun out of it when we can’t really be sure how many votes any of these guys are legitimately getting, but it’s a good opportunity, at any rate, to talk about some guys a little further down the list and get away from the Great White Hope of the moment arguments.

I was toying with voting for Valle. His OPS is actually only a little lower than last year, which surprised me when I checked–I think that the way he tore up the FSL in the first half skewed my impression of his season. But obviously last year’s ranking was a huge overreach. Hard to know what we were thinking, but then, I suspect a couple of this year’s new entrants in the Top 10 may look similarly embarrassing at the end of the year. That’s the nature of this business…

That read to me as, we are sending him to Lakewood to start and back to Williamsport if he struggles. Maybe they hold him back for a month, but that really says to me that he will see time in LKW first. Not overly surprising as this is how Santana was treat (not under Jordan though)

I have Valle and Wright up next, back to back on my own top 30, so I really won’t argue for or against either, this round.
I was hoping to hear arguments in support of Cozens or Pullin in this spot, so I would have a reason to change my mind. The next four on my list don’t excite me as potential regulars (Valle, Wright, Collier or DeFratus), but I don’t think I have good enough reasons to move Gueller, Cozens, Pullin and Vargas up ahead of those guys.

I’m a little surprised actually about the lack of support for Cozens. I don’t disagree with you that Greene ranks higher, but I don’t see much distance between them. They look like fairly similar players to me, with similar strengths & weaknesses, with Greene just a little more advanced.. I’ve already commented about Gueller And I don’t know what to make of Vargas.

Pullin, though, is a particularly interesting case. Obviously there is the huge question of whether he can make the switch to second base. If not, he isn’t a prospect. If so, he could rocket up the charts. I can’t oblige you with the pro-Pullin argument, though, since it is my feeling that we need to take a wait and see attitude with him. IF he successfully makes the move to second, and otherwise has a decent season, he’s definitely in the conversation next year for a top 15 ranking. If he also makes strides as a hitter, maybe even top ten. Next year.

I think you are absolutely right in your assessment of Pullin. If he can become a legitimate 2B prospect he will shoot up the list. If he is not good defensively at 2B, he becomes Adrian Cardenas, unless he develops true OF power.

It is funny i was thinking the same thing about Cozens, because i really like the idea of what he can become. But it was only the GCL and i am not going to overreact. And along with not over reacting I went with Walding. I know he dropped on many people boards, but he showed glimpses of his abilities with in game examples during short season ball, and he plays a premium postion well. I am probably going with Cozens after Walding and then Valle after that. Is anyone else having a problem voting for J-Def like me. I just don’t view him as a prospect anymore as he would have been in the BP last year all year if not for the injury. This is the fun part of the system we are really into the projection part.

Behind Gueller and De Fratus on my personal list I have the Pullin, Cozens, Walding, Green group (Vargas is in the next tier with Lino, Mecias, Martinez, Pujols because of flame out potential). I have them in front of Wright, Collier, and Valle and these are some brief reasons that may help or not:

Pullin: Despite not having any star potential, he is the safest hitter in the low minors, he is going to hit for a good average, with average to slightly below power (expect more doubles than HRs), and a good walk rate. If he can play second (which he has the tools to do) that is a first division regular, borderline all-star, a poor man’s Chase Utley. If he can’t play second he is limited to LF because of the arm and range and he is a 4th OF and that doesn’t have a ton of value.

Cozens: Like Greene there is a point where the position he ends up playing is irrelevant because if he makes it, the bat will play anywhere. He reminds me of Adam Dunn (who people forget was a good athlete throughout the minors and into his early career), at 6’6″ there will always be swing and miss in his game but if he can have a good approach getting his walks and picking his spots there is plenty of value there. If he can play RF at least early in his career that is a really good player. You are counting on what is 80 grade raw power to translate through the ranks.

Walding and Green: They each have their warts and are in many ways mirrors of each other even down to one swings left and the other swings right, Walding is a classic the results don’t match what you see, he has a pretty swing and what looks like a good approach but he struggled late in the season as he pressed when the results weren’t there. Green has a lot of power and contact in the swing but it is a bit noisy and long which will need to be worked on so he is not exploited by off-speed pitches. Both are former shortstops, Green took much better to the transition and could be a plus plus defender at third, Walding as the tools but he is still working on mastering the position (he has plenty of time). Both are average runners. They both profile has above average regulars, Green may have a bit more power and Walding a bit more hit tool, both are very good prospects.

I like the comparison of Cozens to Dunn. I thought the same thing when reading the descriptions and watching his swing on video. When watching Larry Greene’s swing on video prior to the 2012 season, the player that came to mind was Mo Vaughn. It’s a dream that Greene could produce even one season like Mo Vaughn, but that is who he reminded me.

I know I’m guilty of pushing back too hard at people making comps sometimes. Sometimes a “reminds me of”, or what have you, isn’t a comp to the player’s entire game. Like the Rizzotti comp to Dunn a few years ago was always slammed entirely, (and if someone was saying Rizzotti is a comparable player to Adam Dunn, rightfully so, I would say). But when making a statement like, “Rizzotti’s glove is probably as bad as Dunn’s, and he’d have to hit like him in order to have any semblance of a career” isn’t saying Rizzotti is like Dunn. It’s saying, here’s one place the two of them might be similar, (their biggest weaknesses, perhaps), and then look at the chasm of difference between the rest of their games and careers. That’s not a “comp” at all, but it’s seen by some as an absurd thing to even state. Probably we all should take a minute to read the argument before we jump up and down on someone’s head merely for the crime of mentioning someone in the same breath as an established player.

Not sure what you said about Cozens and Dunn in August, so maybe you deserved a good head-jumping. We all do from time to time.

I agree we are all guilty of taking a comp the wrong way. It is almost never this player will end up being this player. I think for the most part comps fall into two different categories, physical and skills. For example the Dunn comp on Cozens is a bit of both, personally I put it more in the physical comp side as Cozens has done very little skills wise, and by saying it I want to give the reader a physical picture of Adam Dunn who is slow and large now but at one point was a giant human being who also could run and play a decent OF before getting slower and moving down the defensive spectrum. A skills comp you want to give an image of what kind of player that person could be, a good example is comping Revere to Juan Pierre at the plate, what you are saying is that Revere profiles as a speedy slap hitter without much power and who also can wreck havoc on the bases with his speed.

The thing to remember is that comps are meant to give you an extra image not to say this is exactly what a player will become, but more put the numbers (whether they are on the field numbers or physical descriptions) a picture.

I think the key should be … isn’t always, people probably should be less quick on the trigger … realizing the difference between a comp meant to illuminate (“this is the type of player he is”) and a comp that is meant to puff up a player (OMG, Ruf is going to be the next Matt Holliday”). The latter does deserve a certain amount of … push back.

But even in the former case, I think we need to be careful with comps of a short season minor league player to a star major league player. Yes, I am (slightly) pushing back on the Dunn comp here, even considering that Matt does not mean that he thinks that Cozens is going to be the next Dunn. If you want something more specific, though, I would point out that there is (at least not yet) any indication that Cozens has Dunn’s extraordinary plate discipline. And without that, Dunn IMO doesn’t have a major league career. Not just because of the value of the BB in and of themselves, but because, without that, he would have never seen a decent pitch to hit. My image of Dunn is a guy who (the other physical attributes aside) has a huge HR swing which misses more often than it hits, but also a guy who will only swing at his pitch and has extraordinary strike zone judgment. The second part of that image doesn’t match Cozens, at least not yet.

Most ‘comps’ are going to be made to somewhat recent, generally well known, players. Generally, they are used to either push an upside as well.

Comparing players to Erubiel Durazo and Andy Tracy may have merit but will just have people searching the internet to understand the comparison. A better explanation would be to provide a complete scouting report, which is some amateurs would unlikely be able to do.

I know I’m out on a limb, but hear me out. He’s the same level as Austin Wright but younger. He may be the same age as Valle and a level lower, but he passed his level while Valle failed his. He has the pedigree, and his arrow is pointed upwards — he’s gotten better each season, and importantly this is backed by peripherals. K-rate down, ISO up, BB-rate is respectable. Solid but not inflated BABIP.

I expect he will get a power boost moving from Clearwater to Reading. I think he’s primed for a breakout year.

To clarify my comment on Valle failing his level — I think Valle should repeat AA this year. Thus in my mind, Collier and Valle are now at the same level. So I consider them to be at the same stage of development, and Collier is playing better right now and trending upwards.

What’s kind of interesting about Valle is that, if you discount his AAA performance in 2012 and just look at Reading, 2012 was probably about as good as 2011 overall, maybe better if one adjusts for the unsustainable (and not sustained) BABIP in 2011.

I think 4 was a little too high last year, even given the information available at the time, but on the whole the fully justified reason for the lower ranking is simply recognition that his decline in BB/K ratio wasn’t a one year blip, but a 2 year sustained trend.

I don’t think you can honestly say that Collier passed CLW, while Valle failed Reading. Collier edged Valle in OPS — .730 to .715. Yes, Reading is a better offensive park, but catcher is a tougher and more draining defensive position. Without his AFL performance, Collier really isn’t mentioned this high on the list.

Again walks hurt Valle: he walked half as much as Collier in 100 more at-bats. I think it’s reasonable to argue that Valle should be ahead based on his defensive position, but offensively I’d take Collier’s line all day over Valle’s.

I disagree. The Phillies justified Collier’s prospect status the minute they added him to the 40 man roster. He passed single A enough that they thought a team might select him in the rule 5. That is significant for a non-pitcher.

It’s not as though Valle also didn’t pass this test by being on the 40-man. Yes, I’ll take Collier’s hitting line over Valle’s last year, but I also look for a much better hitting line from a corner OF than from a catcher. I agree with those that Valle may be drifting in the direction of backup major league catcher, but he’s young enough that this isn’t determined yet. Btw, nobody is saying Collier isn’t a prospect. Still, without his AFL performance, I doubt he gets much consideration for a top 15 spot.

The rule 5 is much different for catchers and shortstops, than for outfielders. You have to show true Major League ability, to be selected, especially a single A player. Teams protect/select AAAA catchers and shortstops all of the time. It means something when an OF is protected.
The fact that Edgar Duran (SS), Austin Hyatt (RHP)and Julio Rodriguez (RHP) didn’t get protected (and were not selected) relegates them to non prospect status, IMO. I weigh that against them much more heavily than Leandro Castro.

I don’t get the distinction you are making. Teams also select/protect pitchers and OF all the time. That’s how we got Victorino and Herndon. In many ways its easier to select a pitcher or a fast OF. The pitcher can spare the other pitchers on the team, by logging the garbage innings in lost causes. The fast OF can pinch run and likely be a defensive replacement. A catcher can’t pinch run to any great advantage and needs to be fairly advanced defensively to get into a game. Like any position guy, he can pinch hit, but marginal (for 40-man roster decision) high-A catchers aren’t usually great with the bat. I’ll grant you that a middle IF with a glove (like Galvis) has value on the bench, just for the glove.

I apologize. I wasn’t clear.
I believe Pitchers, then shortstops, then catchers, then outfielders, in that order, are most likely to be protected/selected in the rule 5. That is why I have totally dismissed the prospect status of Hyatt and Rodriguez. Any decent pitcher left unprotected, gets selected. Also, if Duran had serious potential, I would imagine a team selecting him ahead of an OF. He would be easy to hide.

(1) Fangraphs has Collier’s wRC+ at 108, while Valle’s is 90. That’s park and league-adjusted, and properly weights everything a player does with the bat. So Collier was 8% above average offensively, while Valle was 10% below.

(2) I don’t just look at the final line, but also peripherals. Collier went 8.2% / 18.8% / .131 / .315 (BB, K, ISO, BABIP), whereas Valle went 3.3% / 25.2% / .174 / .308. Valle showed a bit more power, which is probably mostly attributable to his home park, but Collier’s peripherals indicate a much better performance.

The counter I will give you is the defense (baserunning is Collier and it is nowhere close). I haven’t seen any praise for Collier’s defense and a few whispers it may not be good enough for center, if Collier can’t profile in center defensively he is a 4th OF the bat does not play in a corner. Valle despite his poor success with the running game is a plus defender when it comes to receiving and working with a pitching staff. Also I wouldn’t throw the 40 man slot in as evidence as the Phillies gave Valle a 40 man spot in 2011 right off his year in CLW.

Joe Jordan on Zach Collier via Jay Floyd interview this week: ‘ I’m proud of Zach as far as the way he handled his suspension. We kept him in extended (spring training) and played him in a lot of games there, so that when he was ready (to be activated), he was ready to go. He didn’t have to play himself into shape. He was in shape and had seen live pitching. But, I’m really proud of him because he handled it very well and he had a good summer, tailed off a little bit at the end of the Florida State League, but he did well and then he went to the (Arizona) Fall League and did really well. I think that’s the guy that we’re counting on, because it’s a left-handed swing that you can trust and he can run and he can throw. He can do a lot of things. And, yeah, I’m proud of him.’

I agree with Rupp to add. I have him near the top of the ‘depth’ guys.
I think his chance of becoming a good backup catcher is pretty high (for a prospect). I doubt he has starter potential but as a power catcher with decent defense I figure he has a major league career. It just depends on where commentors rank a lower upside guy.

I can’t wait to see him in Reading. Hopefully he manages to get regular ABs even with Joseph there. He just about destroyed the FSL in the second half of the season. If only he could hit like that all year long.

What I’ve really enjoyed about this site for the year that I’ve read it is the thoughtful, mostly civil discourse among people who are genuinely interested in Phillies developmental players. Matt, thanks for all your hard work keeping this going. Sorry you have to waste time with one or two individuals who want to spoil things for all. That being said I liked Cozens for raw athletic ability, although at this point many of the players left on the board could slot in here

Quinn is hurt in the rankings by the continuing speculation that he might not stick at SS. Having only a half year of play is also a disadvantage. If he does as well offensively in 2013 as he did this year and if he demonstrates the ability to handle SS defensively, he will move up the SS ranking list.

it wouldn’t surprise me if he is 10-15 though. Most of the names on there are high profile prospects that were drafted in the 1st rd or big signees out of LA. And none of them had a performance to doubt their potential. Remember Quinn exceeded expectations and will have to outperform the rest to move ahead of them.

I tend to think it’s really just based off of the fact that he was in such a low league. There’s a lot of “big names” at the short stop position right now and being that he was in short season ball & wasn’t a top 10 pick in the draft has him a little lost in the shuffle.

Another season like last year and he’ll be towards the top 1/2 of the list in 2014.

You know, regarding the voting/comments: I don’t know how the back end of this site works, but I know it’s possible with many CMSs to require registration via a facebook, gmail or other type account in order to comment. I don’t have any problem, personally, with revealing my true identity. (And man, Manti T’eo is going to be totally floored when he finds out.) I think most people are more civil when their names are attached to their comments, and while it wouldn’t keep the really determined jerks from trolling, it would make it a lot easier to ban them. I guess the downside is that, theoretically, someone’s boss could discover he’s posting hateful things about Ruben Amaro all day when he should be completing a project. But that seems unlikely.

So the troll who will remain nameless strikes again. After stuffing the ballot box for Valle in round 14, in round 15 he tries to deny Valle a rightful victory by a ton of last minute votes for DeFratus.

I think he outsmarted himself this time, though, giving Gregg, Matt, et. al., the opportunity to show those few doubters that no, they don’t have some horrible bias against Valle that deprived him of the #14 slot.

I can’t see the IP of who comes to the site only who posts, the poll itself is actually a third party piece of software (Polldaddy) that I can work the settings from WordPress but don’t have more control than that. There probably is a way to see more of what the traffic is on a home built site, but we are limited by what tools WordPress gives us.

This post is titled “Reader Top 30 #15 – Sebastian Valle”, so apparently the poll has closed and Valle won the #15 spot. The poll results should have been frozen at the time the poll closed, perhaps by copying and pasting them to the top of the post and closing the PollDaddy poll. As this post now reads, it is confusing, because it shows that De Fratus won by 20 votes.
Reader Top 30 #15 (Poll Closed)
Justin De Fratus 29.84% (128 votes)
Sebastian Valle 25.17% (108 votes)

I looked back at the last few spots and each time the true winner is apparently in second place according to the final closed poll results.

If you haven’t been following someone has been tampering with the vote. Matt has been checking out the voting irregularities this person is leaving behind and using his best judgement of who voters are actually favoring.

It’s funny that you’re the 1st to mention that the voter fraud happens every year. There have been obvious cases in the past years of manipulated runoffs and mysterious vote jumps from one round to the next. This year is just different in that the culprit is purposely making it obvious. This guy has done this before when players he likes haven’t been voted in as early as he liked.

Unfortunately, it is likely that this behavior is still influencing the vote. Human psychology being what it is, we are inclined to vote for whoever was 2nd place last time around, and alter our opinions when we see the opinions of others.