Officials at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and National Bank of Canada are probably breathing the greatest sighs of relief that the Bank of Canada opted not to cut interest rates on Wednesday, based on a analysis by Barclays Capital.

Analyst John Aiken says those two banks are most exposed to margin compression stemming from Bank of Canada overnight interest rate cuts, which are usually followed at least in part by the big banks when they extend loans to clients. The analyst reached his conclusions based on an analysis of the domestic composition of the banks’ loan books and the contribution of net interest income to total revenue.

Bank of Montreal appears to have the lowest relative exposure to incremental rate cuts, Aiken said.

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“The banks’ sensitivities to interest rate decreases, in our opinion, are not onerous,” the analyst wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. “However, another rate cut would add another headwind to earnings with fewer and fewer positive levers apparent in the near term.”

He said CIBC and National Bank would “face the greatest headwinds” if the central bank opts to cut the overnight rate below 0.5 per cent in future sessions.

“Another rate cut by the Bank of Canada would place incremental pressure on the Canadian banks’ net interest margins,” Aiken wrote, estimating that interest rates earned on domestic lending have declined by more than 25 basis points on average.

“We believe that the previous two rate cuts in 2015 will still weigh on margins in 2016 and any incremental rate cuts would worsen the pressure,” he said.