Demystifying the Science and Art of Political Polling - By Mark Blumenthal

August 11, 2006

New Polls from Fox, AP

Apologies for slow posting since Wednesday - it's been a busy week. Taking a step back from the Connecticut primary, two new national polls were released this week, and both show slightly lower job ratings for George Bush than most of the other national surveys released in late July or early August. Do these indicate a new downturn for Bush? Our friend Charles Franklin has crunched and graphed the numbers and says no.

The most recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll (story, results) puts the Bush job rating at 36% approve, 56% disapprove. However, as Franklin points out, the approval rating on this latest survey is exactly the same as their last poll fielded July 11-12, but the disapproval rating is three points higher. His post goes into detail on the

The poll getting more attention today comes from AP/IPSOS and shows a drop in Bush's approval from 36% to 33%, "matching his low in May," as the AP story puts it. Franklin takes a close look and concludes the latest AP result is a statistical outlier from the most recent poll trend. That is, other national polls have shown Bush's job rating holding steady or slightly rising, while the AP result is a sharp departure. He continues:

It is possible that the AP result signals a sharp break from the past. Given the track record of outliers in these data (over 1100 polls in all) that is not likely. Far more likely is that new polls will confirm that the trend has changed by modest amounts, either up or down, and that the next poll will be closer to 38.7% (both above and below) than to 33%.

This is not to say that the trend cannot change. We have seen three very clear examples of reversals in aproval trend since January 2005: in November 2005, February 2006 and May 2006. At some point approval may again trend down (or more sharply up, for that matter.) But it would not be a statistically good bet that the AP poll is where approval really stands right now

Comments

I have came to the conclusion that if Democrats were as honest about Clinton as Republicans are with Bush, clinton's numbers would have been a lot lower too. I know a lot of Republicans when asked will say they don't approve of the way the Pres. is handling certain issues and will express this. This doesn't mean they wish they had voted for Gore or Kerry or that they plan to vote democrat in 2006.

On the other hand, did you ever hear a staunch democrat ever say anything negative about Clinton or Carter? I know personally I never have even in the late 70s when interest rates were high, etc, democrats would NEVER say anything bad about their president.

Posted by: David | Aug 12, 2006 9:38:42 AM

David--

Political Arithmetik performed just such an analysis this spring at http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2006/03/how-low-can-approval-go.html.

It found that Jimmy Carter, according to Gallup, sets a post-WWII for lowest level of support for a sitting President among members of his own party at 34% approval. Clinton's lowest level of support among Democrats was around 70%. The current President Bush's lowest level of support among Republicans was 80% at the time of this analysis.

If Bush's support among Republicans were as low as Carter's was among Democrats, his approval rating would be at Nixonian lows.

Thanks for the information. I guess that is what happens when you base things on personal experience.

Posted by: David | Aug 13, 2006 2:02:10 PM

With Republicans seeming more inclined to distance themselves from Bush in the competitive elections it would seem that in the months leading up to the November election the electorate can experience an increase in political ads and commentary that is anti-Bush or Bush-neutral with few politicians balancing that out with pro-Bush ad buys. Wouldn't this result in growing negatives for Bush as the case is made by those who oppose him and the electorate is increasingly tuned in in anticipation of an election?

Posted by: R.Cates | Aug 15, 2006 1:35:12 PM

"The left is noisy, assertive, in your face, quick to declare its passionate support. Voters on the right and in the center may be quieter but then stubbornly resist the instruction of the mainstream media and show up on Election Day and vote Republican, as they did in 2004, or for Lieberman, as some apparently did this week."

That isnt a "theory" as much as a partisan slur, spin and propaganda. First, the right is not quiet in the least and his description is more apt to a lot of loud conservative support. Second, there is and was no "instruction of the mainstream media" but insofar as there was bias it actually tended to go in the opposite direction. See, e.g.,http://www.cjrdaily.org/politics/parroting_the_party_line.php
Third, Lieberman had quite the last second blitz with established Democrats pledging their support and allies attacking Lamont in the media.

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