2030 Outside Canada

This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms.

This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 15-20 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.

This report looks at the future of China and considers two questions. Can China’s growth rate still be among the highest in the world even if it slows from its current pace? And can it maintain this rapid growth with little disruption to the world, the environment, and the fabric of its own society? The report answers “yes” to both, but only if China transitions from policies that served it so well in the past to ones that address the very different challenges of a very different future.

The scale and pace of Asia’s transformation is unprecedented and the implications for Australia are profound. This document is a roadmap to guide Australia to become a more prosperous and resilient nation, fully part of the region and open to the world.

Paper considers the impact of aging on growth through savings, capital accumulation, labor force participation, and total factor productivity in 12 Asian countries and then makes projections about the effects of demographic change on the economic growth of the 12 from 2011 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2030.