Iowa State University economist David Swenson predicts the economic impact from the 2012 Iowa caucuses will fall “well short” of spending from the 2008 caucuses, which saw both parties having open races for their respective presidential nominations.

David Swenson, economist, Iowa State University

Swenson authored a report in 2008 which found the major presidential candidates’ economic impact to the state was $15.5 million in total sales in the six months preceding the caucuses, or about one-hundredth of 1 percent of the state’s $130 billion gross domestic product value in 2007.

While the exposure generated by the caucuses gives them the illusion of a significant economic impact, “the real impact is nowhere near as much as people assume it is,” Swenson said in a statement issued by ISU. He expects that to be even less this campaign cycle in which only Republicans are campaigning in Iowa for their party’s presidential nomination.

Many members of the national and international media visited Iowa State University, along with thousands of Republican Party members, for the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames on Aug. 13. But while the event and a nationally televised debate two days earlier drew significant media exposure, Swenson doesn’t see a major economic benefit from it.

“With the straw poll, a few thousand people descending on Ames is the equivalent of a pretty good high school basketball game. Truly that is not that big of a deal.”

And contrary to popular opinion from some news outlets, neither is Iowa’s economic windfall from the caucuses, he said.

“It’s not an economic boon,” Swenson said. “What we get is a lot of attention and that’s the value of it. It’s the indirect value of it. The publicity is much more valuable than (what) any of the candidates actually spend in the state. So you just consider it a large amount of free Iowa advertising and that’s its value.

“I’ve been interviewed by members of the national media and they are incredibly disappointed when I tell them the truth [about the real economic impact to Iowa of the caucuses],” he added.