Thursday, December 20, 2012

Park Geun-hye promises to reach out to North Korea with more
humanitarian aid and deeper engagement after she moves into South
Korea's presidential Blue House on Feb. 25. Pyongyang, however, may be
in no mood to talk anytime soon.

Park's declarations
ahead of Wednesday's election that she will soften five years of
hard-line policy rang true with voters, even as they rejected her
opponent's calls for a more aggressive pursuit of reconciliation with
the North.

A skeptical North Korea may quickly test
the sincerity of Park's offer to engage — possibly even before she
takes office. She is both a leading member of the conservative ruling
party and the daughter of the late anti-communist dictator Park
Chung-hee, and Pyongyang has repeatedly called her dialogue offers
"tricks."

Outgoing President Lee Myung-bak's tough
approach on North Korea — including his demand that engagement be
accompanied by nuclear disarmament progress — has been deemed a
failure by many South Koreans. During his five years in office, North
Korea has conducted nuclear and rocket tests — including a rocket
launch last week — and it was blamed for two incidents that left 50
South Koreans dead in 2010.

But reaching out to
North Korea's authoritarian government also has failed to pay off.
Before Lee, landmark summits under a decade of liberal governments
resulted in lofty statements and photo ops in Pyongyang between
then-leader Kim Jong Il and South Korean presidents, but the North
continued to develop its nuclear weapons, which it sees as necessary
defense and leverage against Washington and Seoul.

Analysts
said Park's vague promises of aid and engagement are not likely to be
enough to push Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions, which
Washington and Seoul have demanded for true reconciliation to begin. To
reverse the antipathy North Korea has so far shown her, Park may need
to go further than either her deeply conservative supporters and
political allies or a cautious Obama administration will want.

"North
Korea is good at applying pressure during South Korean transitions"
after presidential elections, said Yoo Ho-yeol, a professor at Korea
University in South Korea. "North Korea will do something to try to
test, and tame, Park."

Even the last liberal
president, Roh Moo-hyun, a champion of no-strings-attached aid to
Pyongyang, faced a North Korean short-range missile launch on the eve of
his 2003 inauguration.

North Korea put its first
satellite into space with last week's rocket launch, which the U.N. and
others called a cover for a test of banned ballistic missile technology.

Despite
the launch, Park says humanitarian aid, including food, medicine and
daily goods meant for infants, the sick and other vulnerable people,
will flow. She says none of the aid will be anything that North Korea's
military could use. She's open to conditional talks with North Korean
leader Kim Jong Un.

The aid won't be as much as
North Korea will want, to be sure, and it won't be as much as her
liberal challenger in Wednesday's election, Moon Jae-in, would have
sent. Park's conditions on aid and talks also could doom talks before
they begin.

Pursuing engagement with North Korea
"really would have to be her top priority for her to be a game-changing
kind of leader on the issue," said John Delury, an analyst at Seoul's
Yonsei University. He added that Park is more likely to take a passive,
moderate approach.

"In the inter-Korean context,
there's not a big difference between a passive approach and a hostile
approach," Delury said, "because if you don't take the initiative with
North Korea, they'll take the initiative" in the form of provocations
meant to raise their profile.

North Korea was not a
particularly pressing issue for South Korean voters, who were more
worried about their economic futures and a host of social issues. But it
is of deep interest to Washington, Beijing and Tokyo, which had been
holding off on pursuing their North Korea policies until South Korean
voters chose their new leader.

The next Japanese
prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is a hawk on North Korea matters who has
supported tighter sanctions because of the rocket launch.

The
U.S. had attempted to warm relations with North Korea with an
aid-for-nuclear-freeze deal reached with Pyongyang in February, but that
collapsed in April when the North conducted a failed rocket launch.

Washington
could use a new thaw on the Korean Peninsula as a cover to pursue more
nuclear disarmament talks, analysts say, but the Obama administration
will also likely want a carefully coordinated approach with Seoul toward
Pyongyang.

Park's North Korea policy aims to hold
talks meant to build trust and resolve key issues, like the nuclear
problem and other security challenges. Humanitarian assistance to the
North won't be tied to ongoing political circumstances, though her camp
hasn't settled details, including the amount.

Park
also plans to restart joint economic initiatives that were put on hold
during the Lee administration as progress occurs on the nuclear issue
and after reviewing the projects with lawmakers.

Park's
statement that she's willing to talk with Kim Jong Un "practically
means she's willing to give more money to North Korea," which is
Pyongyang's typical demand for dialogue, said Andrei Lankov, a scholar
on the North at Seoul's Kookmin University.

But the
heart of the matter — North Korea's nuclear program — might be off
limits, no matter how deeply the next Blue House decides to engage.

"North
Korea isn't going to surrender its nukes. They're going to keep them
indefinitely," Lankov said. "No amount of bribing or blackmail or
begging is going to change it. They are a de facto nuclear power,
period, and they are going to stay that way."

Thursday, December 6, 2012

The federal government believes the economic fundamentals
remain strong, but admits there's downward pressure on corporate tax
receipts due to weaker commodity prices and a high Australian dollar.

"Our last economic update had us at trend growth and that's
why the last economic update had us with a surplus," Ms Gillard told ABC
radio on Friday.

"We are still determined to deliver the surplus."

But shadow treasurer Joe Hockey said figures this week
showing the economy expanded by just 0.5 per cent in the September
quarter - for a sub-trend annual growth 3.1 per cent - undermines the
prime minister's surplus commitment.

"Ever since the mid-year budget update the prime minister and
the treasurer have been crab-walking away from their 2012/13 surplus
promise," he said in a statement.

"Time and again they have refused to repeat their guarantee to deliver a surplus this financial year."

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott believes the government is building up to dump the projected $1 billion surplus.

"Yet another broken promise from a government which is just
incompetent and untrustworthy to its core," he told reporters in Toowoon
Bay, NSW.

However, the Australian Greens would welcome the government dropping the surplus and leaving the budget in deficit.

"You would be hard pressed to find an economist that says a
surplus is a good idea," Greens senator Larissa Waters told reporters in
Canberra.

"A surplus delivered off the back of single parents, off the
back of an underfunded NDIS that won't start for years, that's not a
surplus that benefits Australians."

The latest international trade figures for October released on Friday reflect the challenges facing the economy.

Australia's trade position deteriorated as lower commodity
prices, particularly for coal products, and a high Australian dollar
constrained export earnings.

The goods and services balance widened to a $2.09 billion
deficit in October, from a downwardly revised $1.42 billion shortfall in
September, marking the biggest seasonally adjusted trade gap since
March 2008 when the global financial crisis hit.

The value of imports rose three per cent, but exports were
flat and fell 9.5 per cent over the year, creating ramifications for the
nation's terms on trade.

RBC Capital Markets strategist Michael Turner said the
national accounts report released on Wednesday showed income measures
were uniformly weak in the September quarter as a result of the four per
cent fall in the terms of trade - which was almost 14 per cent lower
over the past year.

"The early data for (the December quarter) suggest more of
the same ahead, as activity shifts to a sub-trend pace," he wrote in a
client note.

Capital imports rose by 13 per cent in October as business
took advantage of the continuing strength of the dollar, while the
currency dampened export revenue.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate again this week in anticipation of these dynamics.

Monday, November 26, 2012

The judiciary should be free from the pressure of "political
parties, the media and social institutions" while dealing with the
salafist file, the Tunisian justice minister says.

Two salafists arrested in connection with the September 14th US
embassy attack were transferred to a Tunis hospital after suspending
their hunger strike, AFP reported on Wednesday (November 21st).

Hassen Ben Brik and Ali Trabelsi decided to end their hunger strike
in Mornaguia prison after a long discussion with a justice ministry
representative, the ministry said in a communique.

Some 54 salafists suspended their protest last Sunday, according to TAP.

The news came a few days after two salafist inmates detained on the
same charges had died in prison. Mohammed Bakhti was close to Abu Iyadh,
the fugitive leader of radical salafist group Ansar al-Sharia and the
alleged organiser of the embassy attack.

Bakhti died last Friday evening. Two days before, Bechir Golli had passed away after a 50-day hunger strike.

"We regret the death of any Tunisian," said Tunisian Justice Minister
Noureddine Bhiri. "We attempted many times to persuade them to stop the
hunger strike but they refused."

"The suspects were arrested based on evidence from the judicial
police and judicial investigations. Some of them were caught by police
with Molotov cocktails in hand and stealing from the US embassy and the
American school of Tunis," he added.

Bhiri also regretted "interference" in the judicial affairs from "many political parties, the media and social institutions".

"The situation has the line of putting pressure on judges through
various manifestations of protest and propaganda designed to secure a
certain decision," he said.

"Actors involved in the judicial system distance their decisions from
political and personal disputes, and treat the cases independently,
impartially and professionally. They are also asked to refrain from
spreading rumours and disseminating unconfirmed information."

"An independent judiciary is also a judiciary free from the pressure
of public opinion, media and political parties, as much as it is
independent from the rest of the authorities," Bhiri explained.

Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki last Saturday called for an
inquiry into the deaths of two salafist prisoners. Speaking at a
Carthage conference organised by salafist Sheikh Bechir Ben Hassen,
Marzouki noted, however, that the "state would not yield to blackmail
through hunger strikes".

But the statements failed to calm civil society, with some activists and politicians calling for Bhiri's resignation.

"It is unacceptable to have Tunisians die in prison because of a
hunger strike after the revolution," Wafa Party MP Azad Bady said.

Tunisian League for Human Rights chief Abdessatar Ben Moussa called
"for the resignation of the minister of justice after holding him
responsible for the death of two young salafists from a hunger strike".

Dozens demonstrated on November 6th in front of the justice ministry
demanding the release of salafists jailed in connection with recent
violence in the country, including the US embassy attack, the Abdellia
Palace art show desecration, and the ransacking of Nessma TV.

Monday, November 12, 2012

A Tunisian Salafist wanted for allegedly organising an attack on
the US embassy called for calm yesterday, as troops and police deployed
outside a flashpoint suburb of Tunis following deadly violence earlier
this week.

But fugitive Abu Iyadh, chief of Ansar al-Sharia (Partisans of
Islamic Law), warned that there could be another explosion of anger
after two Salafists who took part in a Tuesday attack on police posts in
the area lost their lives.

“It is possible that a lot of our youth will not be satisfied by an
appeal for calm after the events in Douar Hicher,” Abu Iyadh said,
referring to the quarter of the Manouba suburb.

“I call on you to heed the words of God and to rely upon patience and
prayer,” the fugitive leader said in a video posted on the Internet.

But while calling for calm and highlighting what he said has been
Salafist patience, Abu Iyadh warned the authorities of an “explosion of
anger.”

“Our brothers who died as martyrs gave their lives for the Umma
(worldwide Muslim community) … and you should be sure that the blood of
our brothers will sooner or later bring about the installation of God’s
law.”

Army, police and national guard vehicles and several dozen men
deployed on roads leading to Douar Hicher before weekly Muslim prayers,
and there were no reports of any unrest in the area.

Salafists, followers of a hardline branch of Sunni Islam, have used
Friday prayers in the past to rally their faithful and carry out
attacks.

One of those who lost his life this week was the imam of Manouba’s
Ennour mosque. The man chosen by the congregation to succeed him, who
does not have the government’s approval, declared war on the Islamist
ruling party Ennahda during a television talk show on Thursday night.

“I am going to make war on these people because the interior minister
and the leaders of Ennahda have chosen the United States as their god —
it is the Americans who are writing the laws and the new constitution,”
Nasreddine Aloui said in an appearance by video link on Ettounsiya
television.

He urged the country’s youth to prepare their burial shrouds to fight
against Ennahda, brandishing a white cloth himself and saying Ennahda
and other parties want elections held on the “ruins and the bodies of
the Salafist movement.”

Interior Minister Ali Larayedh and Human Rights Minister Samir Dilou,
both members of Ennahda, were on the programme and replied sharply.

“This sort of talk is partly responsible for the bloodshed. You do not realise that your words are like bullets,” Larayedh said.

Dilou said: “You are not worthy to be an imam. This talk is an incitement to hatred.”

Religious Affairs Minister Nourredine el-Khadmi told a news
conference on Friday that around 100 mosques in Tunisia were under the
full control of Salafists. He rejected what he said was Aloui’s “call to
violence.”

Abu Iyadh is wanted for organising an attack on the US embassy in September in which four of the assailants were killed.

Jailed under the regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, he was freed
following the revolution that ousted the former president last year and
became the key figure in the Tunisian jihadist movement.

He was involved in organising the September 9, 2001 assassination of the Afghan nationalist warlord Ahmad Shah Massoud.

Since the revolution that ousted Ben Ali in January 2011, radical
Islamists have carried out a number of attacks, including against
security forces and on cultural events.

The opposition accuses the government of failing to rein in violence by Salafists, a hardline branch of Sunni Islam.

But the authorities have vowed to crack down on Islamist violence in the wake of the attack on the US mission.

Last month, Tunisia marked a year since its first free elections in a
political climate of tensions within the national assembly and a
stalled new constitution.

In June, voters are due to go to the polls to elect a new president and parliament.

Friday, August 3, 2012

The mother of the fruit-seller whose self-immolation touched off
Tunisia's uprising has received a four-month suspended sentence Friday
for "verbally assaulting" a judge, after being jailed for a week.

One
of Manoubia Bouazizi's sons, Manoubia Bouazizi, touched off Tunisia's
revolution - and ultimately the Arab Spring - when he set himself on
fire after being slapped by a policewoman reprimanding him for selling
fruit without a license.

The 61-year-old woman was jailed a week
ago after the argument. Another son, Salem, has said the altercation was
exaggerated. He said the judge bumped into her and they exchanged
words, but that his mother did not know she was talking to a judge.

Mondher
Bedhiafi, a spokesman for Tunisia's department of justice, said the
sentence was reduced after the complaint was withdrawn.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

A Tunisian court yesterday upheld a seven-year sentence against a
young Tunisian who posted cartoons of the Prophet Mohammad on Facebook,
in a case that has fuelled allegations that the country’s new Islamist
leaders are gagging free speech.

Jabeur Mejri (left) was convicted of upsetting
public order and morals in a country where Muslim values have taken on a
greater significance since a revolt last year ousted secular strongman
Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, ushering the Islamist Ennahda party into power.

The initial sentence was handed down on March 28 against Mejri, who
is in jail, and against Ghazi Beji, who was sentenced in absentia. Mejri
was able to appeal, but Beji remains on the run.

Mejri’s lawyer criticised the ruling which she said proved Tunisia’s
judiciary was still subject to political interference some 18 months
after the revolution.

“This is a very severe sentence and suggests that the Tunisian
judiciary has not yet rid itself of political interference,” said Bochra
Belhaj Hmida.

“We should at least seek to rule justly. This is unjust and has
ruined the life of a young unemployed man. The judge showed no mercy and
no consideration for this youth’s circumstances.”

Mejri did not have a major following on Facebook, she added, and his
work, which is critical of religion, had drawn little public interest
before the trial made headlines.

Tunisia electrified the Arab world in January last year, when protests forced Ben Ali to flee after 23 years in power.

But the revolution has created tension between conservative Muslims
who believe their faith should have a bigger role in public life and
secularists who say freedom of expression and women’s rights are now
threatened.

The government says it has a duty to defend public decency, but its
secularist critics say it is using the justice system to crack down on
anyone who does not fall into line with religious orthodoxy.

The court decision comes two weeks after puritanical Salafi Islamists
and others rampaged through Tunis and other cities in protest over an
exhibition that showed art works they deemed offensive to Islam.

The head of private television station Nessma was also fined in May
for broadcasting Persepolis, an award-winning animated film that
includes a depiction of God, which outraged Islamists.

The film had been licensed for viewing in Tunisia several years earlier and the verdict drew US criticism.

In February, the publisher of a tabloid was jailed for eight days and
fined after he printed a picture of a German-Tunisian footballer and
his naked girlfriend on the front page.

“Political interference has just moved from one group to another. Nothing has changed,” said Hmida.