To say Matthew Stafford had a regression in 2014 is akin to calling water wet. It was obvious to every disappointed Stafford owner last year, as he finished outside the QB1 threshold after finishing in the top-5 the previous year. Those in Stafford’s corner will say it was his first year in a complicated system, and he was without Calvin Johnson for a good chunk of the season. Despite the low touchdown total (22), he completed over 60% of his passes for only the second time in his career, and threw a career low 12 interceptions. He finished 2014 by leading his team to the playoffs, and posting a strong 8-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go along with two 300-plus-yard games over the last five games of the season.

If you believe the final five games of the 2014 season are a precursor to 2015 success I might wait to buy a ticket on the Stafford hype train. Being a former long-time Detroit area resident, I’ve watched Stafford play extensively over the years, and I’ve come to conclusion that he’s a mediocre quarterback. Sure his arm talent is nearly unrivaled, but during a game you are as likely to say “wow, how the heck did he make that throw?”, as you are to say “why the heck did he make that throw!”. After six years in the league he still hasn’t developed a consistent ability to put touch on the ball, and his fantasy stats have been largely influenced by a ridiculous number of pass attempts. He fails to elevate the players around him, and struggles mightily when any of them miss time. Some games he throws darts all over the field for four quarters, and in others can’t hit a car dealership in suburban Detroit! (it’s a Michigan thing, just trust me). With the Lions publically stating a desire to commit more to the running game (their first two draft picks support this idea), Stafford’s pass attempts should be the lowest since his rookie year. The health of Calvin Johnson and development of Eric Ebron will go a long way in helping his Ryan Fitzpatrickian sub 50% completion percentage in the red zone. Stafford is a great option for owners looking to add their starting quarterback later in the draft as he provides a fairly high floor, and ceiling, but don’t rush out to build your roster around the former Bulldog. Think low end QB1 with 30+ touchdown upside.

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