In recent weeks there has emerged a new argument regarding Ukip. It goes like this: despite attracting unprecedented media interest, money and new members, Ukip are flatlining. Their potential to inflict mass damage at the 2014 European elections has been overstated. Rather than spark a mass revolt they have been treading water for months on around 12 per cent in the polls. Their prediction of winning the European contest now seems like little more than hubris, as they are far behind the level of support needed to achieve this. In fact, they might even struggle to beat the Conservatives into second place.

The extent to which this view has gained widespread currency is remarkable. Only a few months ago Westminster pundits shared a consensus that… Read More

Last night’s by-election is no game-changer for Ukip, but then it was never going to be. For reasons that we set out in our last blog, Wythenshawe and Sale East was never going to offer easy territory to Ukippers in the same way that seats like Eastleigh or Rotherham did. Difficult local conditions, a lack of Ukip campaigning at past local elections, and a very short by-election campaign that focussed heavily on the postal vote all meant that this was never going to deliver another major breakthrough for Farage and his followers. Even they knew this, predicting to us before the battle that anything between 15 and 20 per cent would keep them happy – that’s the thing about the current generation of Ukippers, they suddenly appear to have a strong grasp of their strengths and weaknesses.

The British system is no friend to new challengers. Today, 452 parties are registered with the Electoral Commission but most will sink without trace. While each dreams of breaking the grip of the two Goliath parties that have monopolised power for generations, they face an electoral system that routinely turns dreams into despair. Unlike proportional systems in Europe that provide a relatively simple path into the legislature for new movements, Britain’s first-past-the-post system stacks the deck against new parties. Only those who can win a local seat outright progress on to the next level. The winner takes all. Second place is nothing.

Only a few new parties have many to break through in the past 50 years. While they later faltered, the Social Democratic Party of the 1980s did win a swathe of seats…. Read More

An alliance with the Tories would harm Ukip's prospects of a bigger breakthrough

In 2009, Ukip made an odd move for a party that was building a reputation as an anti-establishment alternative. They elected a new leader who was the very embodiment of the British establishment. With Nigel Farage having stepped down, the party put their cause in the hands of Lord Pearson of Rannoch, a multi-millionaire, Eton College graduate and former Conservative peer in the House of Lords. Pearson was far from a populist with the common touch. One of his earliest announcements as leader was that he would not stop stalking on his ten thousand acre Scottish estate, and would certainly not stop dining at White's, an exclusive London club. "Quite right!" screamed Ukip libertarians. But in reality this was a strange… Read More

In the autumn of 2010, Nigel Farage was wrestling with a tough decision: whether he should return for a second time as the leader of Ukip. During his first period as leader from 2006 until 2009, he had felt worn down and under-appreciated by his party. Now, his divisive and unsuccessful successor, Lord (Malcolm) Pearson, had resigned after less than a year in the role. Unsure of his next move, Farage found himself where many an Englishman has sought refuge from a tough decision – in the back of a London black cab.

"The driver said to me", Farage later recalled in one of our interviews, “well, look Nigel, with David Cameron as leader of the Tories, a man who is not even a Tory, this is a… Read More

On Monday we launched UkipWatch by challenging a widespread myth that Ukip’s supporters are all grumpy, middle-class Tories. The reality is very different and points to a party that draws its strongest support from struggling working-class voters alienated by the mainstream parties. Today, we will challenge a second myth: that ultimately this assault against the mainstream parties is rooted in public concerns over the single issue of Europe.

Myth No.2: Ultimately, this is about Europe

Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, the myth that Ukip’s support is driven by voters with an obsessive interest in Britain's relations with Europe remains well entrenched. The underlying logic is clear enough: Ukip were founded as an anti-EU pressure group, their leaders talk a lot about Europe and so their voters must similarly be motivated… Read More

Welcome to UkipWatch! As the local and European elections rapidly approach, this blog will offer impartial and expert insights into Ukip’s revolt, and the roots of its support. Over the past year we have been preparing a book that systematically examines Britain's radical Right rebels, shining a light on how the party emerged and who is backing the most successful revolt against the main parties for a generation. (NB: We have no connection to anti-Ukip campaigning groups who have the same name as this blog!)

This journey has taken us from an office at the London School of Economics, where Ukip was founded in 1993, to the Buckinghamshire mansion of Robert Kilroy-Silk, who brought the party to the brink of breakthrough in 2004, and then nearly destroyed it the following year, and… Read More