8/25/2009 @ 4:00PM

The NFL's Most Underrated And Overrated Players

Brett Favre made headlines this month by un-retiring–again–and signing with the Minnesota Vikings. Judging by the number of fans rushing to buy purple No. 4 jerseys, one might think the Vikings had already won the Super Bowl.

Unfortunately for residents of the Twin Cities, it’s not a great move. That’s because Favre is the most overrated quarterback in the NFL, according to our panel of experts. Favre piloted the Jets to a 1-4 record last December, a month that saw him throw nine of his league-leading 22 interceptions. Nevertheless, Favre garnered his 10th Pro Bowl selection–and raked in $12 million, more than twice as much as any other Jet–making him an easy choice for our overrated list.

“Brett Favre is the career leader in touchdowns, but he is also the league leader in interceptions,” says Jeff Ma, co-founder of Citizensports.com, an outfit that designs sports-related applications for Facebook and other sites. “That number may grow faster than the former and be more damaging than the former is helpful. In my mind, this was a terrible move for the Vikings.”

On the other hand, the Atlanta Falcons’ selection of Matt Ryan with the third pick of the 2008 draft is a move that few would second guess. The young star gets the nod as the NFL’s most underrated quarterback–he didn’t make last year’s Pro Bowl despite posting a lofty 87.7 passer rating, easily better than Favre’s 81.0 mark. Better yet, the rookie made $6.6 million, about half of what Favre made.

The List

In order to determine these players, we polled experts including Scott Swanay, founder of the advice Web site FantasyFootballSherpa.com; staff members from research site DraftDude.com and Ma. We asked them to choose the most underrated and overrated players at each position, with an eye toward real football talent and fantasy football value alike. We used Pro Bowl appearances to break ties at each position: Nominees for the all-underrated team were bumped off if they’d been recognized for their achievements last year, while overrated nominees like Favre were highlighted because they were selected to football’s all-star game over more deserving players like Ryan.

A Team Effort

Along with Ryan, T.J. Houshmandzadeh of the Bengals and the Packers’ Ryan Grant landed on the underrated list at wide receiver and running back, respectively. Grant looks healthy after an injury-plagued 2008 and could get additional carries when the windy weather sets in at chilly Lambeau Field. Houshmandzadeh, a relative bargain last year at $2.85 million, should benefit from a change of scenery after bolting the underachieving Bengals for the Seahawks.

Joining Favre on our overrated squad are running back Chris Johnson and wideout Terrell Owens. Swanay thinks Johnson, a Tennessee Titan, may lose carries to a slimmed-down LenDale White. The aging Owens, who made $13 million last year, is often among the league leaders in dropped passes, but gets more attention for his off-field antics. Both could signal a dip in production.

“Owens is almost 37 years old, plays in a very tough conference and in cold weather, and has a bad QB throwing to him,” says Lee Caleshu of DraftDude. “He will become extremely disruptive at some point in the season when he becomes aggravated that he is not as productive as he has been in the past, causing a downward spiral in his stats.”

The most overrated defensive player? The Bears’ Brian Urlacher, whose tackle total dropped to 93 last year, down from 123 in 2007 and 141 in 2006. Worse yet, the former NFL defensive player of the year didn’t record a single sack. The Bears paid him $4.2 million dollars for his efforts.

“It’s unfair to judge defensive players in terms of raw numbers–as fans, we don’t know what scheme they are playing and what roles they have been placed in,” says Ma. “That being said, Urlacher’s numbers from last year were among the worst of his career … He has clearly become overrated.”

On the bright side, Urlacher may have better luck this season. The Bears will play the Vikings twice, giving the beefy linebacker plenty of opportunities to sack his lumbering colleague on the all-overrated squad–quarterback Brett Favre.