RALEIGH — In the wake of the Republican National Convention, a Civitas Institute Flash Poll found that Republican candidate Mitt Romney took a 10 percentage-point lead over President Obama.

The Flash Poll of 500 registered North Carolina voters was taken Sept. 4-6 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4.5 percent. Asked if the election for President were held today who they would vote for, 53 percent chose Romney and 43 percent chose Obama.

Fifty percent of the voters had a favorable opinion of Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts; 40 percent had an unfavorable opinion. The survey showed that 50 percent of those polled had an unfavorable opinion of Obama, while 42 percent had a favorable one.

“Any one poll is just a snapshot. What is important are the overall trends,” said Civitas President Francis X. De Luca. “Our regular polling will show whether this Flash Poll is an outlier, or a harbinger of a new trend in voter sentiment.”

Asked if their opinion of Romney changed after the convention, 39 percent of those responding to the Flash Poll said it got more favorable, and 33 percent said it grew more unfavorable. Those voters also said they had a favorable opinion of the GOP convention, 46 percent favorable to 37 percent unfavorable, and of the Republican Party in general, 45 percent to 40 percent.

About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.

Wow, and i though Rasmussen made up numbers…He’s credible compared to the insane clown possee over at Civitas…This is nothing but poll cooking, PERIOD….Etch a Sketch up by 10% in NC, winning 30% of the black vote…..There is no way etch a sketch will win NC by 10%, President Obama likley will win NC, and it will be close….

That $3 bill i found at LAX was less of a phony than this poll from Civitas….

Not to disappoint all of the haters out there but these are the numbers as reported to us by SurveyUSA. We could have “adjusted” them but than we would be doing what accuse of doing, cooking the numbers. If we were going to cook these numbers, they would not look like this.

Not to disappoint all of the haters out there but these are the numbers as reported to us by SurveyUSA. We could have “adjusted” them but than we would be doing what accuse of doing, cooking the numbers. If we were going to cook these numbers, they would not look like this.

I’m not sure that it’s a good defense to argue that “we lie better than this.” But, in any case, you should certainly get your money back from Survey USA, or at least highlight the oddity of a poll that gives the GOP candidate a higher percentage of the black vote than that candidate has gotten since the _1960_ Presidential election.

It’s not just the black vote that is out of sync here. Mitt Romney gets 60% of the 18-34 year old vote vs. 39% for Obama? 55% of 35-49 year olds vote for Romney vs. 38% for Obama? I think we can safely disregard this poll.

Given the small sample size, you are looking at a sample of approximately 100 African-American voters in North Carolina. Given that the sample is not truly random, there is some possibility for fraud (responders claiming a different race than their actual one), and the very small sample size, it does not seem that unlikely that this is just a statistical outlier. It’s also possible that some African-Americans responded to the RNC with a feeling that Obama hasn’t done enough for them and indicated this displeasure with their response. That said, it would be shocking if Romney got over 15% of the African-American vote, let alone 30% of it.

In all likelihood, this poll will end up being an outlier. Right now, North Carolina seems very tight, with Romney perhaps a slight favorite. If Obama’s current 4-5 point lead in the polls lasts through November (instead of more likely being mostly a post-convention bounce), then NC will probably narrowly go his way. If Romney wins the election or loses by 1-2 points, he’ll probably take the Tar Heel state’s electoral votes.

“The vision of the Civitas Institute is of a North Carolina whose citizens enjoy liberty and prosperity derived from ***limited government***, personal responsibility and civic engagement. The mission of the Civitas Institute is to facilitate the implementation of ***conservative policy solutions*** to improve the lives of all North Carolinians.”

Francis, do you not understand that the rest of us are already in on your secret code? We know that “all of the haters out there” is RWNJ code for anybody who doesn’t swill the Kool-Aid. I’m sorry to tell you, my friend, that your credibility was pretty low after you released the poll, but it fell to absolute zero when you gave up the code in public.

Another big problem is who they sampled. Apparently they sampled some really screwed up people to get 30% Republican / 45% Democrat at the same time as getting 42% Conservative / 15% Liberal. The apparently don’t identify with parties that align with their personal beliefs/

Or more likely, these numbers were just made up in attempt to make Romney look REALLY good in light of the recent developments. The left-leaning poll to come out recently has Obama ahead by 1%. I would completely disregard this one and never return to this heavily biased site again.

I came from RCP too, made me think again about RCP as a source of polling data, but gave me a chuckle.

If you factor in how wrong they were about Mccain in 08 (thanks Fia), this poll implies Romney has 10% less support than Mccain did at this point in the campaign…and he lost NC! Even though it was the only red on RCP, this poll is potentially the worst news for the GOP today – stinks of desperation.

I thought the poll was fine. Independents favor Romney 49-40%. That’s the key. Either the CBS/Washington Post or CNN poll showed Romney up 54-40% with Independents.

See, you guys complaining should look at all the polls showing Obama ahead (besides Rasmussen and Gallup.)

They vastly oversample Democrats by between 6-19% (Pew poll). One oversampled women by 13%.

These polls are going by 2008 voter turnout which was an historic Democrat year with 7% more voters than Republicans. In 2004 and 2010 the vote was even. Since 1980 Democrats typically have 3% greater numbers at the polls. Plus, it’s all registered voters. When it’s likely voters the GOP picks up 2-3%.

So complain away. But the polls showing Obama ahead poll too many Democrats on registered voter polls. So no question you’ll enjoy the results.

Bottom line. We have a Depressionesque economy which will end Obama’s reign at one term.

“I don’t often poll people about presidential candidates and preferences, but when I do, I lie brazenly about it by making up ridiculous numbers and then take to the comments section to try to lick my horrible wounds by claiming I could’ve lied even better.”

@Salemst Yes, I know the latest Republican meme is that the polls are *all* wrong, that they’re oversampling, and that Romney is really ahead. First rule of thumb: if you’re complaining about the polls, then you’re losing. It reminds of John Kerry’s campaign in 2004 talking about how the polls were wrong.

Second: shockingly, the pollsters have actually thought about it, and mostly ended up using a turnout/sampling model that is somewhere between 2008 and 2010 (and actually quite close to 2004).

Funny, one poll with a R bias and the left screams. Just start with the PPP and Democracy Corps and you have a big bias in the RCP average. At least those two admit their bias. Now we have one poll from Civitis that also admits it is biased and the progressives come unglued. Forget the fact the supposed mainstream media polls are massively oversampling Dems (Gallup, Abc/Wash Post, CNN etc.).

Oh, which pollster was most accurate in 2008 when Obama won? Rasmussen. Yes, Rick, you are so biased you think the firm with the most accurate record for national races is making their numbers up. That is how far you are down the rabbit hole with the Dems. IF you look at the polling – not just the last poll – but polling in the month ahead of the election, Rasmussen was even more ahead. Rasmussen’s state by state polls have been much more variable (bad in 2010, great in 2008, above average in 2004 etc).

Today’s Washington Post/ABC News poll has Romney leading by 11 points among independents.

Last night’s CNN poll shows Romney up 14 among independents.

You might ask yourself how in the world Romney could be losing (according to the corrupt media and their intentionally skewed polls) when he has a commanding lead with independent voters.

Well, that’s simple, the polls are weighted with over-generous samples of Democrats. In fact, the CNN poll linked above shows Obama ahead by six points overall but CNN’s absurd sample only includes 5% of the very same independent voters Romney’s enjoying a commanding lead with. The Washington Post poll, however, samples 36% indies and that poll only shows a 1% lead for Obama.

But both polls assume 2012 is going to be 2008 again where Democrats enjoyed a D+7 advantage in turnout. WaPo sample is D +6 and CNN is D +5.

If anyone thinks that in this environment, Obama’s going to turn out that kind of advantage, you must be one of Obama’s media-shills.

But this is why the media is pushing this Inevitability Narrative — because they know this is a turnout election and that, by proclaiming the race over, they hope to suppress Republican turnout.

@Salemst, first of all, you don’t know what polls I am buying. All I said was I am not buying Civitas’ nonsense. (If your physics experiment suggests that gravity does not exist, you’ve done something wrong and need to look again. Issuing a press release just makes you look stupid.) Second, folks can argue about individual polls and methodologies until they are blue in the face (and campaigns that are behind almost always do). What matters at this stage are trends and considering polls as a group. President Obama is ahead. Things can always change, but he’s ahead right now. All of the whining about polls from Romney’s supporters really does remind me of the Kerry campaign in 2004. They claimed the polls were wrong until election day.

Salemst: “But Blacks are only 11% of the voting population so knock off 3 points and Romney’s up 7% in North Carolina.”

Get your facts straight — and your math.

Blacks comprise about 22% of registered voters in North Carolina, give a generous 10% of them to Romeny and you knock off 4.4 points from Romney’s +10*, but don’t forget to add them to Obama. Net result: Romney +1 — of registered voters, prior to the DNC.

See how this works?

(This poll had Romney with 30% of 22% of the electorate, 6.6 of the total electorate. Give Romeny 10% of the 22% of the electorate that is black, and that’s 2.2, 4.4 points less than the 6.6 of this poll.)

WOW! If this poll was conducted fairly, the results would fall about 4 standard deviations (8% in this case) away from what the the aggregate of polling suggests (civitas gives MOE of +/-4% @ 95% confidence). The chances of that happening given a normal distribution are .0000335 ([1-.999937]/2). Unless, something drastic was reflected in this poll that the others missed because of timing, the chances of this are 3 in 100,000. And, I seriously doubt it was the Republican convention, as polling only suggested a 1-2 point bump for Romney. That bump would make this poll slightly more plausible at 1 in every 5,000. Add in the even more unlikely cross tabs and you get the feeling that somebody screwed up intentionally or unintentionally.

Blacks were not over-polled. 22% of North Carolina’s population is black. 21% of NC’s registered voters are black. Exit polling and enthusiasm polls show a likely high black turnout as well. Its ridiculously easy to understand. “Dr Butter” is probably closer, even though he only considers the skewed results in the black representation. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/37000.html

Salemst, I posted a comment with links to to the North Carolina Board of Elections for your edification, but it has not yet cleared moderation. Here is the comment without the links:
***********************

Salemst: “I have no clue where your 22% comes from.”

The North Carolina Board of elections.

Total Registered Voters: 6,418,370
Registered black voters: 1,418,113

22%.

Are you surprised that you were so uninformed?

Get your facts straight before you start telling people what you think you know, it’s embarrassing.

Guess the comments are over.
Just want to thank the Civitas Poll for having the courage to publish poll results unfavorable to Obama–regardless of what your polls reflect in the future.

Threats of broken knee caps and lawsuits from the White House must be unnerving.

I follow polls, in that poll sampling is critical to me. If the sample is within the normal range I closely will look at the poll.

My gripe is all these polls showing Obama ahead by 3-6%. Yet the over sample Democrats by 6-19% (Pew Poll at 19%). So if using a methodology of even to +3 Democrat, 52-48% women then Romney’s up 2-8% in all these national polls.

Trackbacks

[…] Raleigh-based think tank NC Civitas Institute just released what is possibly the worst poll in the history of presidential polls – one that claims, among other things, 30% of black voters in North Carolina are going for […]

[…] North Carolina: Civitas has Romney up 53-43 in what they term a “flash poll”, but what otherwise seems to be a normal three-night sample. The nights in question are the three nights of the DNC, so the big Mitt lead could be a combination of an RNC bounce, plus Dems being too busy watching their own convention to answer the phone. An average of this poll and PPP’s from yesterday would seem to make sense. […]

[…] From NC Civitas, September 10, 2012: In the wake of the Republican National Convention, a Civitas Institute Flash Poll found that Republican candidate Mitt Romney took a 10 percentage-point lead over President Obama. […]