Readers' comments

I've read this article and I found it well-structured and based on figures and I also totally agree with the autor.However,I'm a bit surprised of not seeing other African Countries in your list of potential competitors to South Africa's Economic Hegemony over Africa.
In fact, the Maghreb countries(Morocco,Algeria,Tunisia)are also considered as geographic,economic and cultural gateways to Africa owing to their localisation on the Mediterranean Sea,which have been throughout the History and still is a crossroads.
This statement can also be justified by figures.
For instance,Morocco's young population and low-wage labor has enabled many Foreign Companies to relocate their factories in the Kingdom.A case in point could be the Renault-Nissan Factory in Tangiers which is reckoned to produce over 400 000 vehicles per year...
Moreover,despite the Arab Spring,Morocco remains a popular touristic destination for a planty of Western trippers.
As far as Algeria is concerned,Let me remind you that It is ranked 3rd African country in Oil Exportation and its mines deposits are very rich:They contain about 50% of the Earth's Lithium.
Finally,According to official statistics Algeria is Africa's second biggest economy just behind South Africa while Morocco is the fifth one hot on the heels of Egypt.
In my opinion,these two countries are serious contenders to play an important part in the African Economy in a near future.

For many people, Africa = Sub-Saharan Africa only. Yet to the North we are seeing some impressive economic activity. I think the term "gateway" has become more and more of a misnomer and that is the thrust of the Economist article.

Also I believe that the article emphasizes the fact that South Africa may need to step down from their high podium of beliefs and come to realise that they are not the greatest in Africa. When most South Africans speak of a country north of their border, they refer to it as "Africa" as though South Africa isn't really part of Africa. Most South Africans can't even begin to imagine how well developed some African cities really are. For example, Lusaka (in my mind) is cleaner and runs more smoothly than Johannesburg (it is a much smaller city). Seeing modern sky scrapers in Addis Ababa is beyond most South Africans who still cling onto some belief that Ethiopia = starving children in a desert.

Nigeria is probably the biggest surprise - or more correctly, Lagos is probably Africa's bes kept secret - impressively developed and a bustling economy in its own right.

I think most South Africans would be shocked to hear that the biggest company in Africa is not South African.

But then we have the North African countries: Morocco, Tunisia and yes even Libya and Egypt who do some surprisingly impressive stuff.

Nigeria is dependent upon oil exports for 95% of its export earnings, while South Africa that is connected to Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Angola, Namibia, Angola, Zambia, Tanzania ... those countries have a multitude of commodities that can support economic growth, platinum, gold, copper, oil, chrome, etc. It has infrastructure, telecommunications, ports, highways, rail, airports.
If investors state they want to invest in Nigeria - what are they investing in? They are investing primarily in the fortunes of the oil industry. Nigeria has a large population, but what can most of its people spend their money on? Retail, telecommunications, Internet, agriculture, those industries will develop strongly in time, but they are all - heavily dependent upon the fortunes of oil.
So Nigeria is actually an investment in the fortunes of oil - which is basically the driver for commodity prices in Southern Africa too. You're not getting a much better deal investing in Nigeria than in Southern Africa. Many companies in the industrialized world, from Canada to China have interests in projects in Southern Africa - those companies are active in West Africa and East Africa. You can follow their progress on websites. Exploration and investment is increasing drastically, there's now something like 10x more companies that are scouting opportunities everywhere than current companies that have set up a business.
So at the end of the day, Nigeria is pretty much one package, while South Africa with its banking sector, its strong financial service based economy, highly experienced mining companies offer far more experience and non-cyclical risks. China, India those countries want coal, iron for their manufacturing sectors, they will be the world's fastest growing major economies - they don't just need oil. They will need all those commodities mentioned. So that is why South Africa is the better long term investment.

The great mistake many investors make is using the EXPORT sector of African countries to judge its overall economy. For example, while Nigeria's foreign exchange receipts may be dependent on oil revenue, trade accounts for less than 30% of its GDP.

As it is the broader economy of a country with a population like Nigeria (6th largest) is the more interesting story and there is latent demand. Those people need to eat, drink, purchase goods and live in houses and oil revenue is not necessarily needed to supply those goods. For example, Coca Cola or Guinness sell drinks that are 100% made in Nigeria and 100% priced for the Nigerian masses. They were there during oil booms and oil busts and are still there today. Similarly, mobile telephony started in earnest in Nigeria in 2002 when oil prices were at their lowest and garnered more than 10 million customers in the space of two years.

Its the same thing with South Africa. Despite the doom and gloom that followed the democratic elections of 1994, the South African economy has doubled in the almost two decades since with construction cranes littering the skies of Johannesburg and Cape Town. That happened because of heavy internal investment. After all, there are actually people in South Africa who needed all the same things that people elsewhere need whether gold is $300 an ounce or $1000 an ounce.

Not to discount trade which can be a stimulus but today's economic expansion in African countries is driven by increased knowledge flow and increased private capital flow. Nigeria for example used to import lots and lots of cement. Today, by replacing imports with local manufacturing, Dangote is the richest man in all of Africa. His factories have managers from Nigeria, Norway, Ghana, South Africa and India (KNOWLEDGE). He has borrowed to finance his plants (CAPITAL) from both Nigerian banks and western banks.

I would imagine the Nigerian economy may overtake the South African economy very soon, even 6-8 years. Nigeria's strength is its population, all it has to do in the short to medium term is to increase speed, that is the speed of everything that does work or goes to work - telecommunications, highways, ports, airports, cars, computers, trains, the stock exchange, banking, cargo ships, factories etc. and its productive people can easily outwork any other economy in Africa and do well globally.
It is just confidence in fast expanding China and India that might gobble up the natural resources of Africa, that could give the Southern African region an advantage over the other regions. But we will see if that happens.

except for South Africa's war drums of land appropriation, nationalization, xenophobia, political tensions, high levels of civil strife, spiralling corruption; you don't think these issues affect investment decisions?

I agree with you, except that I don't think the average South African understands the meaning of STAKE and EVERYONE. It is always "we" vs "them" or South Africa vs the rest of Africa. And this is the group that contitute the majority of South Africans, hopefully not the majority opinion. Talk of misplaced identity.

I suggest that the school curriculum particularly regarding social and regional geography should be jacked up, so South Africans get to understand that South Africa is at the Southern tip of Africa and therefore forms part of the Africa continent, and all that live on the continent irrespective of their origin, tribe, culture, political affiliation or none, if they claim the nationality of any of the countries within Africa they are Africans by naturalization.

I find it intriguing that people are argueing on whether or not SA will remain the leader. This is a great argument because it is an argument as to who will come out on top. Unfortunately there are doomsday sayers here.

SA has messed up royally, for example, SA still has the world's biggest gold deposit and the price of gold is at it highest in all history, yet SA is not even the world's second largest producer of gold and SA miniming companies are mining more gold outside SA than inside, a sign that there is something wrong. On the upside, the recent scandal of the Zuma painting with his penis showing, may have created outrage, but SA has clung onto its fundamentals of freedom of speech and human rights. Imagine if that painting were made in China, or Venezuela of Russia.

But let me put this to you: what if Nigeria takes the lead, or if Angola take the lead.... good for them. They are all obviously doing things right, which is a great change since the post-Communist era.

NIgeria has a far larger population than SA, if everyone in Nigeria reaches a per-capita income equal to SA, then Nigeria is the power of Africa, but most importantly more people will be better off in Nigeria. If they are better off, then most likely more Nigerians will be buying SA products (and vice versa). Which is good for everyone.

I actaully believe Nigeria deserves to be the power house of Africa and wish them well in getting there.

Economics is not a zero sum game. And the beauty of growth is that everyone wins.

Those countries trying to catch will still be trying to catch even in the next thirty years, me thinks.
Egypt is in the mud cannot even choose a leader there is chaos there.
Nigeria is on the edge of a civil war with their unresolved religious issues and zero tolerance for gays and or those different to them.
Do the math.
Here in sunny South Africa, you have what might be the biggest diversity of cultures coming together.
So I don't care how fast Nigeria is growing if it is to explode in stupid religious wars. Another taxi bombed and the other group vows revenge... kind of news every month or so is a bit boring.

What in the accommodation of homosexuals conduces to economic growth? It is not a proxy for how tolerant a society is, but rather a reflection of their culture. The fact that the West criminalises polygamy is not a statement on their 'zero tolerance for those different to them", and has not stymied their economic growth. Why should people who conscientiously discourage a perverted sexual culture be stigmatised, labelled intolerant and talk down at?

Paul Kruger! It hurt me to hear that another farmer has been killed in SA and a Child was killed just for a cellphone to be stolen.

Nigeria is at the edge of a civil war? all is fair in war, so those drumming for it, are obviously prepared.

Killing farmers who provide food for your people is a very promising sign of a culture coming together??? threatening to appropriate land from one culture is not a sign of war? another head in the sand!

Kenya- New with expected additional findings of oil deposits (larger than the findings in Uganda a few years ago), new inclusive constitution (stable political atmosphere), expected of-shore gas deposits (preliminary studies place them to be as much as Mozambique), strategic geographical location (gateway to Uganda, South Sudan, Eastern Congo, Rwanda, Burundi and Southern Ethiopia) with expected development of new port in Lamu - to be the biggest in Africa, to serve the aforementioned countries especially South Sudan and landlocked Ethiopia.

I don't want to sound pessimistic but I have doubts on SA near future due to the stalled and sensitive process of addressing historical injustices (land rights and racial equality) in SA. Loud under-tones remain, largely cupped by the presence of the 'dancing president'. Last time this issues were raised, Mbeki was heavily blamed by the ANC 'nationalists' for being a pro-establishment-status-quo stooge and hurriedly kicked out. I sincerely expect some form of tension in the near future.

South Africa is in deep trouble, no doubt about it. But so is the rest of the world. South Africa remains a gateway into Southern Africa - for example it has the highway links, the business links, its telecommunications companies provide services throughout Africa and its manufacturing and retail as well as banking sectors have many sales outlets throughout Africa.

But the intellectual development of its people is falling far behind the rest of the world and even the rest of Africa. The country is riddled with trade unions, socialist ministers and outdated economic policies and ideas.

In 2010 South Africa lost over 1,000 days per 1,000 employees, making it by far the most strike-prone country in the world - the next worst was Denmark with 159 days lost per thousand.
South African workers strike 6x more than any other workers on earth.
Skill levels and education is falling. Everyone in government is striking, from teachers to hospital nurses and doctors.

Dare I say that the poor performance is as a result of the incumbent government. Will the electorate eventually wake up and vote for a responsible outfit that gets into office on a mandate they then can be measured by and not coerced into voting for the liberation party because their ancestors will be turning in their grave if they do otherwise?

The statistics you are talking about was when SA was serving the whites in SA and disrespected the africans.
So to me to use lousy statistics about Afrikaners who lived in POSH Suburbs with swimming pools and the amenities and what have you, under Apartheid, is useless!!
Talk about now after the ANC defeated the white Regime in SA (Apartheid) and we are a free to walk and go any where we like as we please!!
Under that white regime it was crime to go to town ;) LOL!!

Whats shocking about South Africa is that there is still a large number of apologists of the apartheid era who continue to overlook the fact that the well being and existence of a few overweight and overly pampered people such as themselves is due to a Nazi-like regime which cornered the nation's mineral wealth and land over a very long period of time dispossessing the natives and leaving them in a state of utter poverty and homelessness.

Such people need to be told again and again that democratic South Africa even with its teething problems is in a better place today with a party which despite its many failings should still be praised for humanely balancing the illegitimate needs of those corruptly enriched sons of the apartheid regime for more profits with the more basic needs of the vast majority of South Africa's poor for jobs, education, healthcare and homes.

Shaka Zulu killed 1 million black people with his army of 250,000 soldiers - impaled them. He didn't give them any votes. By 1879, South African blacks couldn't read or write. They hadn't build a single trade ship despite having a massive coastline to trade. They had no exports with the rest of the world. They were warriors.

They resisted Western culture for 300 years. No democracy existed in Africa even during apartheid. 53/54 black countries were dictatorships.

You guys are such hypocrites.

You tried to kill the white settlers for 350 years - that is a crime against humanity!

Apartheid is over. Now move on!

Time to apologize for holding the entire continent back for 350 years. Never adopting even the wheel. Destroying all railways and roads, they tried to build. For hating the whites.

Shaka Zulu killed 1 million black people with his army of 250,000 soldiers - impaled them. He didn't give them any votes. By 1879, South African blacks couldn't read or write. They hadn't build a single trade ship despite having a massive coastline to trade. They had no exports with the rest of the world. They were warriors.

They resisted Western culture for 300 years. No democracy existed in Africa even during apartheid. 53/54 black countries were dictatorships.

You guys are such hypocrites.

You tried to kill the white settlers for 350 years - that is a crime against humanity!

Apartheid is over. Now move on!

Time to apologize for holding the entire continent back for 350 years. Never adopting even the wheel. Destroying all railways and roads, they tried to build. For hating the whites.

Shaka Zulu killed 1 million black people with his army of 250,000 soldiers - impaled them. He didn't give them any votes. By 1879, South African blacks couldn't read or write. They hadn't build a single trade ship despite having a massive coastline to trade. They had no exports with the rest of the world. They were warriors.

They resisted Western culture for 300 years. No democracy existed in Africa even during apartheid. 53/54 black countries were dictatorships.

You guys are such hypocrites.

You tried to kill the white settlers for 350 years - that is a crime against humanity!

Apartheid is over. Now move on!

Time to apologize for holding the entire continent back for 350 years. Never adopting even the wheel. Destroying all railways and roads, they tried to build. For hating the whites.

Perhaps things were better before apartheid:
Shaka Zulu killed 1 million black people with his army of 250,000 soldiers - impaled them. He didn't give them any votes. By 1879, South African black people couldn't read or write. They hadn't build a single trade ship despite having a massive coastline to trade. They had no exports with the rest of the world. They were warriors.
They resisted Western culture for 300 years. No democracy existed in Africa even during apartheid. 53/54 black countries were dictatorships.
You guys are such hypocrites.
You tried to kill the white settlers for 350 years - that is a crime against humanity!
Apartheid is over. Now move on!
Time to apologize for holding the entire continent back for 350 years. Never adopting even the wheel. Destroying all railways and roads, they tried to build. For hating the whites.

"We love them with the love of the Lord ;)"
We know you want to kill us - even after 350 years of trying to trade with you, trying to buy land from you, trying to doing business with you. The world is not stupid.
And you're the business class in South Africa. Those that have had an education and time to think and reason.

It is time people grew up! Everyone can bash some group or group of people or the history of any country in the world if they really wanted to. And it seems it is all some people do on the Internet these days.

Ok Shaka didn't have 1 million people killed: we don't know how many he killed and he had an estimated 50,000 soldiers with 250,000 people. But you get the idea. No person is perfect on earth. No leader is perfect. No leadership. No group.

Funny how an apologist of apartheid is placing the blame of racial hatred and murder on the natives. Soon like his fellow brothers of revisionist history he will blame the black South Africans for migrating down from Central Africa and stealing all the land and resources from some imaginary natives that were there before them. Too bad history in South Africa cannot be rewritten to justify Afrikaner brutes stealing all the land, looting all the resources and murdering at will and justifying it under the theme of bringing progress to the locals who today live under some of the worst conditions on this God given earth.

For the past 20 years now the ANC has told the entire world and every township in South Africa whites are to blame for their misery. They've done that for 20 years week after week, its the same message. You're just repeating what you hear. It is actually 50 years. Think about it. What impact does that type of constant propaganda have on people?

You're obviously bitter when it comes to Africa so why don't you just leave and go back to Europe and let Africans worry about Africa. If we resist Western culture and tear apart every road and railway then its our problem not yours.

Rankings are a misleading way to compare things in a race to modernization. The space between number one and the close rivals is invariably shrinking. The first one to the top of a mountain will inevitably notice others catching up.

South Africa may be relatively slipping as Africa grows but it remains a powerful economy that continues to birth and grow strong global emerging market brands such as MTN, SABMiller, Naspers and Standard Bank. Its infrastructure is easily the best in Africa and were the country to combine that with third world labor costs not just from its own vast pool of unemployed but also from poorer nearby countries (Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Zambia and Tanzania) it could easily be a player for manufacturing exports a la Malaysia or Taiwan.

Certainly one of the gateways to Africa.
That is what South Africa has long been and has every potential to remaining as.
The good news is that many other African countries are finally settling down to levels of attractiveness unseen until recently.

Nigeria for one is forever the promised land of oil and honey but its overreliance on that single commodity has also brought with it the so-called curse.
Its large population should spell volume market opportunity.
Endemic corruption, poor overall governance and internal religious and political strife have badly undercut its chances of fast balanced development over many years. Economic growth has been achieved lately in spite of all those negatives but falls far short of the country's true potential.
The same would apply to many other African countries to varying extent, including South Africa whose headstart is owed to it being more consolidated in multiple ways longer than most.

Indeed South Africa's main challenge from within is how high it sets the bar and aims for it.
If the country's relative position may slip it is a welcome sign that others are rising.

South Africa is clearly the leader when it comes to infrastructure. However, what makes other African countries attractive is that comparatively, Ghanaians, Nigerians and Kenyans, just as examples have large diaspora populations that return home with what I would call "new disposable income". This makes for some tempting opportunities. Essentially, you get "Western consumers" in Africa. That is part of the lure.