Clive Palmer's party of wildcards

To fulfil its potential, the Palmer United Party needs to live up to its name and work as one. But with such a motley crew, that will be easier said than done, writes Joff Lelliott.

Clive Palmer may not have achieved his ambition of being prime minister but he is at least a kingmaker, even though his Palmer United Party (PUP) only has a handful of parliamentarians.

The Coalition has 33 senators in the incoming Senate; 39 votes are needed to pass legislation. This means it will need six additional votes whenever Labor and the Greens oppose legislation in the Upper House.

Even in the unlikely event that the government secures support from Bob Day (Family First), David Leyonhjelm (Liberal Democrats), John Madigan (Democratic Labor Party) and Nick Xenophon (independent), the government comes up short. Even with Ricky Muir (Motoring Enthusiast Party), they still come up short. The government needs PUP votes.

On Thursday, Palmer strengthened his hand when Muir signed a deal to work as a bloc with the PUP (the exact details are secret). With the wheels already coming off Muir's Motoring Enthusiasts, he has almost certainly made a smart move aligning with Palmer. It may be the smartest move of his political career.

Given the PUP's limited representation, it is in a dream position. The biggest challenge for Palmer will be keeping his troops united, because parties which suddenly burst on to the scene are vulnerable to falling apart and disappearing as quickly as they arrive.

Pauline Hanson founded One Nation in 1997 and in the 1998 Queensland election won 11 seats in state parliament with 23 per cent of the primary vote. But by the end of 1999 the parliamentary party had fallen apart, with some members forming the City-Country Alliance and others becoming independent. One Nation never recovered.

(It is tempting to wonder what it is about Queensland that it keeps throwing up parties based around a maverick right-winger - Pauline Hanson's One Nation, Katter's Australia Party and the Palmer United Party. Maybe fluoridating the water will reduce this trend.)

An obvious area of concern for the PUP is that like many new minor parties, it lacks a fully fleshed out set of policy positions which means many will be decided as issues arise. Love him or loathe him, Palmer is "a character" who livens up politics, at least partly because of his policy unpredictability. This is a recipe for infighting because policy differences were not ironed out before candidates won their mandates.

On a key policy, Jacqui Lambie was at odds with the PUP immediately after the election. After she clearly stated her support for the carbon tax, the party later claimed she was confused and had always agreed with the PUP policy of repealing it.

Another vulnerability for minor parties is the frequent tensions between elected individuals and the party organisation (as One Nation discovered). In the case of parties built around individuals, the party organisation and its founder may be effectively the same thing.

On the one hand, the individual has suddenly gained a personal mandate, sits in Parliament, has the income, perks and status of office, and ultimately wields a parliamentary vote. This boosts their ego and confidence, despite the lack of tangible political knowledge or experience.

On the other hand, the party organisation is often small, lacks experience and has few resources, which makes it hard for the party machine to outmanoeuvre or threaten rogue parliamentarians.

The PUP doesn't properly fit this model. Whether he is actually a billionaire or not, Palmer is enormously wealthy and is prepared to spend big on politics. He also has deep political experience with a major party. He was a life member of the Liberal National Party in Queensland and held various senior positions over the years. Paradoxically, despite his antics and apparent buffoonery, he can also play a deft political hand. He is no arriviste on the political scene.

Any tension in the PUP could be exacerbated by the fact it is built around Clive Palmer: Palmer's name, Palmer's ideas and Palmer's money.

Further, it is easy to imagine each PUP senator fancying their chances on their own at some point. Glenn "the brick with eyes" Lazarus has a public profile way beyond politics, and Jacqui Lambie began her Senate campaign as an independent before being co-opted by Palmer. Zhenya Wang (who is facing a recount) is the most accidental of accidental politicians, a breed notoriously difficult to keep under control. Ricky Muir is another surprise winner, who has a relationship to the PUP which is a complete mystery.

In part, how this all plays out depends on whether Palmer himself wins the House of Representatives seat of Fairfax, which is also being recounted.

If he wins, the fact he also sits in Parliament will give him a greater authority with his party, the media and the public. At a practical level he will physically be in Canberra making it easier to influence (or control) his senators. But even if he wins Fairfax, in pure voting terms he is irrelevant to the government because he is in the wrong house. It is only the senatorial team the government needs and it may try to woo them individually to undermine Palmer.

Because senatorial terms begin in the July following the election, the entire team has to wait before they take up their positions. With not a single PUP senator for nine months, preventing his troops becoming restive may prove difficult for Palmer. Or it may provide an opportunity for extensive training in practical politics and policy.

There is one final unknown. Lurking somewhere in the background is Glen Druery, the Mr Fixit of the Senate voting system, who so successfully advised the micro-parties on maximising their chances at the election. He was at last week's PUP press conference and it remains unclear what his ongoing role with the party is.

The Palmer United Party is a motley and disparate crew, with the perhaps-billionaire, mining magnate "Professor" Palmer, his three senators, the fourth musketeer and the numbers man lurking in the shadows. The idea of them taking on the political establishment smacks of a second rate Hollywood script.

Or as ABC's political satire The Roast lampoons them in a cartoon, Lambie and the Brick… and Wang.

Palmer's demand that his team be taken more seriously is not entirely misplaced.

Providing an effective balance of power could set up the PUP for a bigger future than many people imagine. To do that the PUP needs to remain united. As Ricky Muir said at the press conference announcing the deal with the PUP: "I can do so much more than I could have achieved alone."

Editor's note: While The Drum aims to leave stories open for comment for 24 hours, this story has had to be closed about two hours early due to a staff shortage.

Dr Joff Lelliott is state director of the political think tank The Australian Fabians (Queensland). View his full profilehere.