The new snapshot of the race came in a Howey/Depauw Indiana Battleground Poll – a survey of 800 likely voters conducted by two experienced Indiana pollsters, Democrat Fred Yang and Republican Christine Matthews.

On the same day the U.S. Senate candidates officially agreed to two debates, the pollsters found that the campaign is Indiana's only close one at this stage in what otherwise looks to be a Republican year in the state.

President Barack Obama is trailing Mitt Romney, 52 to 40 percent. Meanwhile, Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Pence is topping Democratic former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg 47 to 34 percent in the governor's race.

"All signs point to a strong Mike Pence victory in November. Voters in Indiana are happy with the state's direction and with the incumbent Republican governor. There is not a grassroots movement for change and John Gregg has not made a strong enough case for it," Matthews wrote in Thursday's edition of Howey Politics Indiana.

"The only question mark for the Hoosier state, it seems, is what voters will do in the U.S. Senate race."

The candidates – Mourdock, Donnelly and Libertarian Andrew Horning – will debate twice, on Oct. 15 in Indianapolis and on Oct. 23 in New Albany.

The first debate will be moderated by Mizell Stewart III, the former Evansville Courier & Press editor who is now vice president of content in the E.W. Scripps Co.'s newspaper division. The second will be moderated by Ericka Flye, an anchor for Scripps-owned RTV-6 in Indianapolis.

Those head-to-head matchups will be rare diversions in a race that is being dominated by infusions of outside cash.

Both parties' national Senate campaign groups are pumping money into television advertisements. Other outside organizations are now flocking back to the state after they helped Mourdock unseat U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar in Indiana's May 8 primary.

Democrats' goal: Make sure as many Hoosiers as possible see video of Mourdock advocating a more strident brand of partisanship around the time of the primary while also highlighting Donnelly's middle-of-the-road positions and ignoring less popular votes.

Republicans' counter: Tell enough voters about Donnelly's support for the federal health care law and stimulus package, his intention to vote to re-elect Obama and more in hopes of turning the race into a generic Democrat-versus-Republican matchup in a red state.

The latest flap came as Donnelly demurred when asked whether he would vote for Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, the chamber's top Democrat, for majority leader if he is elected. He reacted to being asked whether he is open to backing Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky by saying "I'd consider voting for the best person."

Republicans called that a disingenuous stunt from a Democratic candidate for whom Reid has hosted a fundraiser and given $10,000 – especially since supporting a Republican for majority leader, under Senate rules, would require Donnelly to caucus with Republicans.

"So, obviously, Harry Reid expects his support. Obviously, Joe Donnelly is trying to run the same play up the middle again, but we've seen this and we're on to it," Indiana Republican Party Chairman Eric Holcomb said Thursday.

"So I'm calling on Joe Donnelly to cease with the distortions of reality here and come clean about his support for who's going to be leading the Senate in his role there."

Donnelly's campaign, meanwhile, used the poll numbers in a new Indiana Democratic Party fundraising pitch, and said they demonstrated momentum.

"This is yet another sign that Hoosier voters are rejecting Richard Mourdock's ‘my way or the highway' approach that will get us nowhere," said Elizabeth Shappell, Donnelly's spokeswoman.

"Despite millions of dollars from Karl Rove's shady backers and the Koch brothers attacking him on air, Joe Donnelly's message of working with both parties to create jobs, lower the debt, and balance the budget is cutting through."

Yang, the Democratic pollster, wrote in Howey Politics Indiana that one hurdle for Mourdock to overcome involves consolidating the Republicans who supported Lugar over him in May's Republican primary.

Right now, though 86 percent of those say they intend to support Romney's presidential bid, just 60 percent back Mourdock – a reality that leaves Donnelly an opening, especially in the traditionally-red doughnut counties surrounding Indianapolis.

"Ultimately, the winner of the U.S. Senate race likely will be the candidate who is best able to convey that he is solidly mainstream during an era, ironically, in which the extremes," Yang wrote, "seem ascendant."

This is a developing story. Check back with Courierpress.com for more details as they become available.