EMRS: Labor 23, Liberal 49, Greens 23 in Tasmania

The latest semi-regular EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania has produced a remarkable result, even accounting for its traditional tendency to overstate support for the Greens: parity between Labor and the Greens, who are both at 23% (respectively down four and up five), with the Liberals down three to 49%. On the question of preferred premier, Lara Giddings is down three to 21%, Will Hodgman down one to 43% and Nick McKim up two to 17%. The poll was conducted by telephone from a sample of 1000, with a margin of error of about 3%.

I think this is the first time Labor and the Greens have been equal on EMRS’s new headline figure; in Feb 2011 they were equal on the old one but not on the one being now used. All the same given the well-known issues with EMRS and the Green vote (caused by them redistributing a high undecided response that in practice does not include significant numbers of Green voters) something like 27 Labor and 19 Green is a more realistic reading than 23 all.

An interesting feature of this one is the high indie vote but I think it is caused by contamination from the LegCo elections; this has been seen before.

There’s no regional breakdown. My gut feeling is that, while the swing to the alive has occurred in all areas, it is far stronger in the north.

The Lins need to get 13 seats to form a fragioe majority government. One would assume they will get 3 in each of Bass and Braddon. They can’t conceivably get more than 2 in Denison (indeed, if the Lib vote continues to decline as we get nearer the election, they will need to work to hang on to the two they’ve got:: neither Groom or Archer have set the world on fire in their first terms so there won’t be huge personal votes for them).

So they will need 3 seats in one of Lyons and Franklin (preferably both). It isn’t exactly a lay down misere, even though the Libs are currently acting like it’s one (as, increasingly, are the forest industry lobby groups, who are dragging out negotiations on the IGA in the hope that they won’t be concluded before the next State and Federal elections).

The Libs confinue strongly to support the 25 member system. But I don’t think it helps them all that much, although I can’t really work out a better system for them. In the long run, the continuing softness of their vote in and around Hobart will present a serious problem for thrm.

As these figures show the libs could get between 12 to 15 seats…… more likely 12 to 14
this could still lead to a hung parliament……. with a very strong Green vote the libs will be always at a disadvantage in Tasmania

Electorate breakdown in Table 4. Though those are really tiny sample sizes.

What I do for my TT articles is merge them with the previous poll to create a larger sample, unless the previous poll was dramatically different. (I also adjust for the EMRS Green effect). Actually when I did this for the May poll and the February one, I got 13-6-5-1 as the sum of the most likely seat results, though the Libs were very close to getting another one in another three electorates (they had a 64 in Braddon in February which raises the possibility of 4 Libs there, though in this poll it was only 54.) Using the 35 seat system which might be reintroduced I got 18-10-6-1 as most likely but again the Libs are on the edge of up to another three.

with a very strong Green vote the libs will be always at a disadvantage in Tasmania

Except when the Labor vote is really awful.

Even if someone just uses this poll and its electorate breakdowns a Liberal majority is very likely. It’s true they are only just over 50 in Lyons but you don’t need 50 for three seats when the other parties are nowhere near two quotas. Also there is that 5% statewide of supposed independent vote, but except for Denison that shows no sign of being able to translate into seats. So the Libs being a bit below 50 in the headline figure means nothing; they would almost certainly get a majority, perhaps easily.

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.