Friday, July 13, 2012

While Value Add projects three MU players will be more
valuable than Todd Mayo next year, the game-by-game projections with and without
him indicates if he leaves the program it could be a huge blow.The following are the Value Add projected scores for every MU game with
and without Mayo, with notes after each section of the season. The first score is the projected score if Mayo is on the team and the % chance MU wins the game, followed by the same 3 numbers for if Mayo is NOT on the team. In a couple of cases the opponent might change based on if Mayo is playing - and in those cases the first team is the one MU would play if Mayo is playing:

Date

Non-conference opponents

MU

Opp

W%

MU

Opp

W%

9-Nov

vs. Ohio St.

72

75

37%

71

76

27%

11-Nov

Colgate

83

58

99%

82

59

99%

13-Nov

Southeastern Louisiana

79

60

99%

78

61

97%

19-Nov

Maui-Miss St. / Illinois

77

64

93%

76

65

91%

20-Nov

Maui-North Carolina

78

77

59%

77

78

45%

21-Nov

Maui-Texas / USC

70

73

38%

70

64

77%

26-Nov

MD Baltimore County

86

63

99%

85

65

99%

29-Nov

at Florida

68

73

25%

67

74

15%

8-Dec

Wisconsin

66

62

70%

65

62

65%

15-Dec

Savannah St.

79

61

98%

78

62

96%

TBD

at Wisconsin Green Bay

76

69

85%

75

70

75%

TBD

Louisiana St.

78

65

93%

77

66

91%

TBD

Wisconsin Milwaukee

83

61

99%

82

62

99%

Total 10-3 Non-conference

9.94

9.76

10-3 in non-conference, but Mayo could get UNC signature win

(Note: Edited to add Savannah State December 15 - see my comments on that excellent get of the 150th best team in the country here). Value Add projects a 2-1 record at Maui, but with a huge
difference. With Mayo, the projection is
for a huge signature win over UNC in the semifinal and then a loss to
Texas. Without Mayo, Value Add projects
a loss to UNC and then win in the 3rd place game vs. USC. The brackets aren’t actually set – these are
assuming they bracket according to how good Value Add calculates each team is –
but it is an example of how a guy like Mayo who can impact each game score by
3% can shift a huge 1-point win to a 1-point loss.

With or without Mayo, Value Add projects Marquette to go 9-3
in the non-conference games in November and December. There are basically 5 cupcakes. Value Add projects losses at Florida and vs.
Ohio State and wins vs. Wisconsin and at Green Bay, but certainly in all four
MU has a slightly better chance with Mayo then without.

Date

BE Opponents

MU

Opp

W%

MU

Opp

W%

BE

at Cincinnati

72

67

75%

71

68

65%

BE

at Georgetown

67

70

35%

66

71

25%

BE

at Louisville

67

77

10%

66

78

8%

BE

at Pittsburgh

66

71

25%

65

72

15%

BE

at Rutgers

72

71

55%

71

72

45%

BE

at Seton Hall

74

69

75%

73

70

65%

BE

at South Florida

66

64

60%

65.1

65

55%

BE

at St. John's

74

72

60%

73

73.1

45%

BE

at Villanova

75

72

65%

74

73

55%

BE

Connecticut

73

66

85%

72

67

75%

BE

DePaul

86

70

96%

85

71

94%

BE

Georgetown

71

66

75%

70

67

65%

BE

Notre Dame

68

65

65%

67

66

55%

BE

Pittsburgh

70

67

65%

69

68

55%

BE

Providence

73

71

60%

72.1

72

55%

BE

Seton Hall

78

65

93%

77

66

91%

BE

South Florida

70

60

90%

69

61

90%

BE

Syracuse

73

68

75%

72

69

65%

With Mayo 12-6, 5th place in Big East, without
Mayo 10-8, 7th

Value Add projects a clear edge in all 9 home conference
games with Mayo, while Notre Dame, Pitt and Providence look awfully tight
without him. On the road, losing Mayo
cost MU projected wins at Rutgers and St. John’s, as MU goes from slight
favorites to slight underdogs in both games – just like the possible UNC game.

Date

Projected Post Season Opp

MU

Opp

W%

MU

Opp

W%

13-Mar

BET Seton Hall / USF

76

67

88%

67

63

70%

14-Mar

BET Rutgers / Providence

74

69

75%

70

74

30%

15-Mar

BET semi - Notre Dame

66

67

45%

22-Mar

NCAA - La Salle / Tenn

77

72

74%

71.1

71

55%

24-Mar

NCAA - Duke / UCLA

72

74

43%

66

77

9%

Tough to make BE title game; repeat Sweet 16 without Mayo

With Mayo, Marquette goes into Madison Square Garden as a
5-seed, drawing a relatively easy win over 12-seeded Seton Hall in the opener,
and a pretty good shot at a win over Rutgers next. That puts MU in the semifinals where they
would just be a 1-point underdog to Notre Dame, almost a 50-50 shot at going to
the title game. Without Mayo, MU comes
in as a 7-seed – still a slight favorite over USF in the opener but projected
by Value Add to lose to one of the most improved teams in the conference –
Providence – in their second game to fall short of the semifinals.

The difference not having Mayo could make in the NCAA is
even more dramatic, as Value Add projects he is the difference between MU being
a 5-seed and an 8-seed there. With Mayo,
MU projects to draw a team like La Salle that they can handle. While Value Add projects a close 72-74 loss
to Duke in the 2nd round, this year’s Duke squad is certainly one MU
would have almost a 50-50 shot at beating, so a very real shot at a 3rd
straight Sweet 16.

The road looks very scary without Mayo. A first round 8-9 match-up vs. Jerome Maymon
and Tennessee is projected by Value Add to end in a 71-71 tie at the end of
regulation. Even though Value Add
projects MU as an overtime winner, it is basically a 50-50 shot at being
eliminated by the Vols in the opening round.
If MU does survive, Value Add projects a thrashing at the hands of UCLA,
which if the Bruins are as loaded this year as they look, could actually be
played in San Jose, California with UCLA as a basic host 1-seed.

Permanent or Temporary Suspension?

I certainly have no knowledge of why Todd’s suspension may
or may not be permanent – nor do I want to convey that I am passing judgment on
the final result.

I am in a minority that believes Davante Gardner will be MUs
best player this year, and I believe losing Jamil Wilson or Vander Blue would be
more devastating, and one could certainly even argue that Chris Otule’s defense
presence and Junior Cadougan’s playmaking could be even more important to the
team that Mayo’s huge upside. BUT,
whether you believe Mayo is MUs best returning player, 7th best
returning player, or where Value Add has him at 4th best, the bottom
line is that it will take a committee of these seven players improving to all
make up a part of what MU loses with Jae Crowder and DJO going to the NBA.

Trent Lockett could step right in and return to his Wesley
Matthews-like freshman form, but the possibility of losing Mayo should not be
taken lightly by any fan. It could be
the difference between being ranked, in the Sweet 16, beating UNC and playing
on national TV for the Big East title against Louisville. The level of competition is just that tight,
and the margin of error that small.

MU could take a little step back in 2013 if Mayo does not
return, before taking at least two steps forward in 2014. Value Add says MU is the 19th best team in the land with Mayo, but drops to an unranked 31st without him. The good news is that MU is so loaded in 2014 that even without Mayo they are easily a projected top 10 team.

1 comment:

In your 'value add' data, you are missing Trevor Cooney of Syracuse University. Cooney redshirted last year and is expected to play solid minutes as the first guard off the bench. Scout.com ranked him the best 3 point shoot in their top 100 and assistant coach McNamara called him a "more athletic version of me with the same ice water in his veins." Im wondering how many other players you are missing on other teams...