It gets tiresome hearing the conventional wisdom say that the Democrats will likely keep control of the Senate. Far from it.

To gain control, Republicans must win ten new seats. An analysis of the latest polling data suggests that Republicans currently hold the lead in eight pick-up states: Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, Washington State, Arkansas, Delaware, North Dakota, and Indiana. In a ninth, Illinois, the candidates are tied and, in the tenth – Nevada – Reid is ahead by only one point. And, for insurance, Boxer in California and Gillibrand in New York are both below 50% of the vote. In Connecticut, Blumenthal is only at 50%. That’s a potential pickup of thirteen seats and a likely gain of at least ten (enough for a majority).

Any incumbent who is running at less than 50% of the vote is in serious trouble. It means that a majority of the voters have decided not to vote for him or her. (Asked if you are likely to be married to the same person next year, a vote of “undecided” does not bode well for your marriage).

Don’t confuse the dramatic swell of the Republican tide that is becoming increasingly evident to the pundits of the country with party trend. Right before Election Day, the numbers will get even better and presage an even larger Republican victory.

Party trend usually indicates itself in the ten days before an election when voters who do not typically follow politics closely tune in and decide for whom to vote. Until this window, they usually describe themselves to pollsters as “undecided.” There will be a huge Republican party trend this year, but it hasn’t happened yet.

There is no need, this year, to load up negative ads with adjectives painting your opponents as evil, big spenders in the thrall of the DC establishment. The simple facts of your opponents’ voting records are enough to defeat them. Just the facts, ma’am.

Republican negative ad writers always delight in describing the Stimulus package as bloated, wasteful, government-growing, and useless. The adjectives get in the way. The polling we’ve done indicates that the simple words “stimulus package” convey all that and more.

The proposed mosque near to ground zero is not really a religious institution. It would be — as many mosques throughout the nation are — a terrorist recruitment, indoctrination and training center. It is not the worship of Islam that is the problem. It is the efforts to advance Sharia Law with its requirement of Jihad and violence that is the nub of the issue.

There is a global effort to advance Sharia Law and make it the legal system of the world. Most major banks and financial institutions offer Sharia Compliant Funds which have their investments vetted by the most fundamentalist and reactionary of clerics to assure that they advance Sharia Law. Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf, the founder of the proposed Mosque, helps to prepare a Sharia Index which rates countries on their degree of compliance with Sharia Law. In the United Kingdom, many courts have recognized Sharia as the governing law on matters between two Muslims.

With Republican prospects looking ever better for this fall, the House Democratic Campaign Committee and the PACs that follow its lead face tough triage decisions: Who will they fund?

Republicans need 39 seats to take away the Democrats’ majority, so the temptation is to focus on protecting the weakest seats. But protecting a House majority is becoming more unrealistic — so what should the party do? Will it mount a goal-line stand and pour funds into its weakest 39 races — or tacitly concede the House, back up and defend the seats it can win?

For a decade, the left owned the streets. Subsidized by George Soros and energized by the Clinton impeachment in the 90s and the Iraq War since, it dominated the Internet and grass roots campaigning. Michael Moore’s movies – however misguided – enthused their ranks and catalyzed their efforts. ACORN worked to commit massive voter fraud in the guise of stimulating voter turnout and the New Black Panthers worked to intimidate those with whom they disagreed. President Barack Obama was the result.

Now, finally, conservatives are answering with their own grass roots efforts in the Tea Party movement. Tea Party activists are bringing the battle to stop big government spending and taxes to the streets and parks of America.

During the early Clinton years — 1993 and 1994 — the first couple vacationed in Martha’s Vineyard hobnobbing with celebrities and cruising on Ted Kennedy’s yacht. The result was that during each of the two summers, as they into the surf, so they dived in the polls. The last drop, after the summer of 1994, played a role in their loss of their Congressional majorities a few months later. Now Michelle Obama is making the same mistake…and at a worse time.

Voters are highly sensitive to where their elected officials vacation, especially when they themselves cannot afford a vacation and have to take a “stay-cation” instead. Now, with unemployment at almost ten percent and underemployment reaching nearly twenty, voters are not likely to take any vicarious pleasure from the recreation of the first family — particularly since they are paying for it.

My observations from the campaign trail are that this year’s elections will be a total and complete disaster for the Democratic Party. In fact, it will amount to the obliteration of an entire generation of Democratic officeholders. It will become very rare to find a youngish baby boomer white Democrat in elective office in the United States. I believe that almost half of the white Democratic congressmen who are seeking reelection will lose!

Federal Band-Aids won’t cover the fiscal problems of such states as New York, California, Michigan and Connecticut forever. State bankruptcy and fundamental restructuring of state and local finance — and labor relations — is at hand.

Take Connecticut. In the current fiscal year, $2 billion in federal subsidies have helped tide it over the recession — a hefty share of its $15 billion budget. But these infusions are one-shot grants, renewed only if Congress acts affirmatively to do so. Other states depend on similar manifestations of federal largess.

The Democratic strategy for the 2010 elections is becoming apparent: Make each Congressional and Senatorial election a contest between two people and avoid a contest over the issues. Knowing that they lose over Obamacare, the economy, the stimulus, the secret ballot in union elections, and cap and trade, the Democrats are determined to convert the legislative contests into person vs. person comparisons of the candidates. Rather than focus on issues, they want to look at their biographies, tax returns, business histories, campaign contributions, and errant misstatements.

Film crews follow Republican candidates to catch them in the odd moment or film their off the record comments. The Democrats are relying on a massive game of “gotcha” to win the elections.