Sunday, December 28, 2008

Cheap gas today, but 'peak oil' crisis near

In Greek mythology, the enchanting songs of the Sirens lured unwary sailors to shipwreck and death. Today's Sirens are the roadside signs singing sweetly, "Cheap gas! Drink deeply and be at ease, weary traveller!"

After suffering record-high oil and gas prices earlier this year, it's understandable that we see cheap gas as anything but a danger. We're in a recession.

But before we drink deeply and relax, let's look through the telescope at what lies ahead.

In November, the International Energy Agency -- an intergovernmental organization that advises 28 member countries -- released its latest forecast. Between 2006 and 2030, the IEA predicts, worldwide energy consumption will grow 45 per cent.

"Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable," said Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA. "Rising imports of oil and gas into OECD regions and developing Asia, together with the growing concentration of production in a small number of countries, would increase our susceptibility to supply disruptions and sharp price hikes. At the same time, greenhouse-gas emissions would be driven up inexorably, putting the world on track for an eventual global temperature increase of up to 6 C."

Think 1973. That year, an oil embargo imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries hammered the developed world.

Oil shocks will become more common and more severe. The triggers could be anything. A terrorist attack in the Strait of Hormuz, maybe. A coup in Saudi Arabia. The collapse of Nigeria. Whatever it is, it will cause oil prices to explode and economies to fall to their knees.

Canada and every other developed nation runs on oil. It is the foundation of our economy. But with most of the world's oil coming from unstable regions far away -- and the proportion that comes from places such as the Middle East is growing rapidly -- that foundation is not reliable.

In preparation for its 2008 report, the IEA conducted a detailed study of depletion rates in 800 of the world's largest oil fields. Nobody had ever done such work before and what the IEA found caused the agency to revise its understanding of the world's energy future in a profound way.

The change has to do with "peak oil" -- the point at which global oil production can no longer keep up with global oil demand. It's actually a nightmare scenario: Imagine the oil shock of 1973 as a permanent reality.

The IEA always insisted peak oil was decades off. But then the IEA conducted its survey of oil fields and got spooked. "Although global oil production in total is not expected to peak before 2030," the IEA's 2008 report states, "production of conventional oil ... is projected to level off towards the end of the projection period."

British journalist George Monbiot asked the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol, to elaborate. The really bad news lies in oil-producing countries that are not OPEC members, Birol said. "We are expecting that in three, four years' time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline."

And worldwide? "In terms of the global picture, assuming that OPEC will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well, which is of course not good news from a global oil supply point of view."

That's the nightmare scenario of peak oil. And it starts in 2020, 11 years from now.

As Monbiot notes, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned a report by oil analyst Robert L. Hirsch. He concluded that even a worldwide emergency response launched 10 years before the crisis hit would still result in "a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked."

In order to avoid this disaster, Hirsch advised, a massive mitigation program must begin at least 20 years before peak.

If a chill didn't run up your spine, you need to read that again.

Fortunately, one of the few politicians who seems to understand the urgency of the situation is the president-elect of the United States.

In announcing his energy team, Barack Obama noted that presidents since Richard Nixon have recognized that oil addiction is a dangerous vulnerability but have failed to make real change. "This time we cannot fail," he said. "Nor can we be lulled into complacency just because, for now, the price of gas has fallen below $4 a gallon."

Obama backed his rhetoric with a daring choice for energy secretary, Steven Chu, a physicist and Nobel laureate who has been leading research into cutting-edge energy technology.

We must have a "global energy revolution," Birol told Monbiot. "I think time is not on our side here."

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)

Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a more sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/

This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
There is a link to an item's source in each article. Please email me if you want your material removed from this blog.
Mk At peakoilnews DoT net