GOP foresees big House gains

Texas Republicans are giddy about their prospects of piling up a big advantage but Democrats contend the tide is changing and have hopes of picking up a couple seats as well. Chart:House races worth watching

AUSTIN - Soon after the last Texas legislative session ended, Rep. Phil King and other GOP leaders formed a group designed to elect more Republicans to the state House, setting a goal of winning 10 seats in the 2010 elections.

The goal showed an optimistic face to the public. Privately, they figured winning just three or four more seats in the 150-member House would be a huge gain.

"Now, we're saying, 'Win 10 in '10' - and we believe it," said King, R-Weatherford, predicting a sour public mood will punish Democrats and elect Republicans.

Republicans hold a narrow 77-73 seat advantage in the House. Whichever party controls the chamber in the session starting in January will be able to get its way on budget matters and controversial issues such as immigration and voter IDs.

Democrats laugh off GOP expectations of picking up a bunch of seats in the Nov. 2 elections, saying their party could very well continue making gains as it has since 2002.

Partisans on both sides generally agree on the four or five House races most likely to flip next month, but nearly 20 more seats are in play. Most of the fiercely contested races are in the Houston, Dallas and Austin areas.

None of the San Antonio legislative seats are in play, but some Republicans say a big swing in their favor could trigger a challenge against House Speaker Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, from a more socially conservative Republican.

Republicans cite general disenchantment with the White House for their confidence in gaining House seats.

"You've got tremendous animosity toward the Obama administration and toward the (congressional leadership team of House Speaker Nancy) Pelosi and (Senate Majority Leader Harry) Reid," said King, chairman of the Texas chapter of the national political action committee GOPAC. "It looks like Republicans are going to turn out en masse. Independents will turn out en masse and heavily trend toward Republicans. I think Democrats will have a flat turnout."

Democrats see it differently, citing changing demographics, problems piling up on the Republicans' watch, and several GOP candidates burdened by ethical problems.

"There's still a possibility for Democrats to gain a majority, but I don't see a huge change," said longtime Democratic consultant Ed Martin. "What we've seen in polling is there's a clear path for almost all of our candidates to win. We don't know who's going to win those voters over in those districts. The winning margins are up for grabs."

Democrats claim to have a superior get-out-the-vote system and say they're working to help Texans understand that Republicans have been in charge of the state Capitol for the past decade.

That control, Democrats say, has resulted in the highest homeowner's insurance rates in the country, ever-increasing college tuition costs, high utility rates, growing transportation problems, and a school funding system so inequitable and inefficient that school districts are talking about another lawsuit.

Democratic strategist Matt Angle says most of the key House races on the watch list involve districts with growing Hispanic populations that are trending Democratic.

"They were drawn 10 years ago for Republicans to hold throughout the decade, and we have taken them away from them with good candidates running against flawed Republicans," he said.

"With this in mind, this general election is more about the intensity of voter outrage than demographics," Eppstein said. "This will most likely translate into net Republican gains of between seven and 11 seats in the Texas House of Representatives."

Blakemore contends, "Eight pickups is a lock. Ten is probably where we are going to be."

"The much-talked-about enthusiasm gap is real," Blakemore said. "I know a few Democrats who are just walking around - a bunch of sad sacks. It happens. It happened to a lot of Republicans in 2008."

Blakemore said he can't envision anything changing that in the weeks before the elections.

Harvey Kronberg, publisher of the nonpartisan Quorum Report, which tracks Texas politics and government, said if the election were held today, he'd expect Republicans to net four to six seats. In August, he saw a gain of seven to 13.

Kronberg said Perry seems to be a drag on the ticket in the metro areas where most of the key House races are.

While things could change in the coming weeks, Democrats appear unlikely to pick up more House seats than Republicans, Kronberg said: "But each year the Democrats get more organized."