UFC 197 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Johnson vs. Cejudo

Having already dispatched nearly every defensible contender, the
man they call “Mighty Mouse” is knocking on the doors of MMA
history. He was last seen in September, when he took a clear-cut
unanimous decision over John Dodson.
That was his seventh title defense, tying him with former
featherweight champion Jose Aldo for
the fourth-most title defenses in
Ultimate Fighting Championship history. In each of those
defenses, Dodson was the only one who managed to steal any rounds
from him, making Johnson arguably the most dominant champion the
UFC has ever seen. He fought twice in 2015; this is his first fight
of 2016.

Standing across from him in the UFC
197 co-main event on Saturday will be the highly touted
Henry
Cejudo. The undefeated prospect and former Olympic gold
medalist made his UFC debut in December 2014 and has only fought
four times in the promotion. However, he has impressed in each
bout, utilizing his athletic and technical gifts to take one-sided
decisions every time out. He was last in the Octagon in November,
when he beat Jussier da
Silva in what was perplexingly judged a split decision. It was
the third fight of the year for “The Messenger,” who was dubbed a
potential heir to Johnson’s throne in his first UFC fight; this
will be the first time he fights in 2016.

Here is what the Tale of the Tape tells us:

Both men are in similar anthropometric ranges across the board,
though Johnson has a slight reach advantage despite being an inch
shorter than Cejudo. They are both 29 years of age and show no
discernible signs of wear and tear, so the physical advantages and
disadvantages they may have are marginal.

The real difference here is in experience. Johnson has been
fighting professionally for six years longer and has nearly five
times as many Octagon minutes as Cejudo. Said differently, Cejudo
only has one more fight in his entire career than Johnson has UFC
title fights. That type of experience could be huge, especially
since this will be the first time Cejudo will fight past the
15-minute mark; Johnson has seen the championship rounds seven
times in the UFC.

Cejudo is no stranger to high-level competition, as he has a
stellar amateur wrestling career to his name, but mixed martial
arts is a different beast. This is particularly relevant because
Cejudo has yet to finish anyone in the UFC, which means he will
likely need to have a better five-round process to beat the
incumbent champion, which nobody at flyweight has been close to
accomplishing thus far. It is also worth mentioning that Cejudo’s
UFC opponents have a combined record of 17-17-1 in Zuffa
promotions, while Johnson has been fighting and defeating the best
of the best, often more than once.

Here is what the striking matchup looks like:

It is always good practice to make note of confounds that
potentially distort the numbers. In this case, the fact that Cejudo
only has four fights’ worth of statistics -- and all three-round
fights at that -- available means that the specific percentages are
still in flux, and he could turn in a performance that deviates
from these numbers in any given fight. Still, they shed meaningful
light on the macro picture of his striking game.

Cejudo strikes in slightly higher volume with slightly less
accuracy, but it is hard to tell if he would keep that sort of pace
in an extra 10 minutes of fight time. Seven out of every 10 punches
is aimed at the head, while 26 percent of his volume is to the body
and the remainder to the legs. Similarly, 70 percent of his strikes
come from distance, with 23 percent in the clinch and seven percent
to grounded opponents. This reflects his general striking style;
Cejudo is an in-and-out fighter, utilizing his speed and
athleticism to throw combinations to enter into range and then pop
back out at an angle or drop levels into the clinch or a
takedown.

“Mighty Mouse” strikes in similar trends, though at more balanced
levels. Strikes to the head make up 61 percent of his total output,
with body shots and leg strikes coming in at 22 percent and 17
percent, respectively. Sixty-nine percent of his of his strikes
come at distance, with 25 percent in the clinch and six percent to
grounded opponents. He strings together technical punch-kick
combinations that lead him into his real wheelhouse: the clinch. In
the clinch, he puts opponents under stifling pressure and chews
them up with as many limbs as possible.

Both men are relatively hard to hit, due in no small part to their
speed and explosiveness, attributes that greatly inform their
overall style. The one final stat to make note of is that Cejudo
has half as many knockdowns as Johnson in a quarter of the fights.
Looking at their careers outside of Zuffa, Cejudo has one less
knockout in 16 fewer fights. This is not to say Cejudo is some
ferocious knockout artist, but if power favors one man, it favors
the Olympian.

Johnson and Cejudo are renowned for their grappling, so let us see
how the fight looks once it hits the mat:

The reigning champion has a diverse grappling repertoire that he
uses in conjunction with his striking to forceful effect. Johnson
prefers to put his opponents against the fence and control them,
unleashing knees and elbows in the process. He shoots for a
takedown every couple of minutes and finishes them just over half
the time. Once on the ground, he has smooth passing that follows
solid ground-and-pound. His submission game is high-percentage and
lethal, as he has defended every submission thrown at him and
finished everybody he has attempted to submit.

It is always interesting to see how high-level wrestlers transition
to MMA, since the skills are no doubt transferable but not always
seamlessly so. Cejudo’s stats may not look all that impressive --
he has a fairly low completion rate, especially given his attempts
per round -- but they are also a bit misleading. Cejudo uses a
variety of different takedowns to keep his opponents off-balance
and set up striking combinations. Once on the ground, he tends to
be more strike-minded, as he has only attempted one submission
during his time in the UFC. Not coincidentally, that submission
attempt came against the only opponent he has advanced position on:
Chris
Cariaso. Still, nobody has managed to take him down, let alone
try to submit him.

The real area of intrigue here is whether or not Cejudo will be
able to take down Johnson down and if so what he will be able to do
there. Beyond that, we have not seen Cejudo on his back yet, and if
“Mighty Mouse” can drag him to the mat, we will see a true test of
Cejudo’s submission defense.

The Final Word

Predictably, Johnson is the favorite in the range of -365 to -440,
though with Cejudo the underdog between +270 and +350, this is the
closest the odds have been in a “Mighty Mouse” fight since he
fought Joseph
Benavidez in 2013. Indeed, Cejudo represents an intriguing
matchup, as his athleticism and wrestling talents make him a very
credible threat. For Johnson, another step toward claiming Anderson
Silva’s record for title defenses is on the line, as he would
trail only “The Spider” and George St. Pierre should he notch his
eighth. Cejudo has high hopes and expectations to fulfill, as well
as the claim of being the first flyweight to beat Johnson -- not to
mention becoming only the second champion in the division’s
history. Only time will tell which history will be made.

Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed
all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for
bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.