View the Policy Memo (PDF) - PONARS Eurasia

View the Policy Memo (PDF) - PONARS

Assured Destruction vs. Low-Intensity DeterrenceCAN RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES ADJUST THEIR NUCLEAR POSTURES?PONARSEurasiaPolicyMemo No. 266July 2013Mikhail TroitskiyMoscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO); MacArthur Foundation 1Just two years after Russia and the United States began implementing the New STARTTreaty, the two sides are coming under increasing pressure to define their positions onfuture rounds of strategic arms control. The direction in which the United States andRussia head is of key importance for not only the relationship between the two states butthe nuclear future of the entire globe. Holding over 90 percent of global nuclear-weaponstockpiles, Washington and Moscow are destined to be fashion-setters in the globaldiscussion on nuclear weapons: the agreement of non-nuclear-weapon nations not toacquire nuclear arms, as stipulated in the Non-Proliferation Treaty, hinges on theprogress of nuclear-weapon states toward nuclear disarmament. Yet the prospects forfurther disarmament will remain bleak until both the United States and Russia show areadiness to critically review their nuclear postures and adapt them to changes in thestrategic environment and public perceptions of nuclear weapons.In particular, the attainment of Russia’s key policy goals vis-à-vis the UnitedStates (constraining intervention in Russia’s internal affairs or use of force againstRussia’s allies) no longer requires hedging against the possibility of nuclear use in acrisis. Having internalized this new reality, Moscow and Washington can proceed withfurther nuclear cuts and exert joint pressure on other nuclear-weapon states that have sofar refused to take part in arms control.The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Russian and U.S. Security PolicyWhen it comes to reducing the risk of accidental nuclear launch or the seizure of nuclearmaterials by terrorists, Moscow and Washington stand united. Beyond this, however,Russian and American arms control priorities and strategies significantly diverge. TheUnited States is contemplating, albeit with a number of caveats, a reduced role fornuclear weapons in its national security policy. Influential representatives of the U.S.1 The views expressed here are solely those of the author and not those of MGIMO or theMacArthur Foundation.1