Wednesday, 31 December 2014

The last day of the trading year was somewhat appropriate for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver settling lower by -1.4% and -3.3% respectively. Across the year, Gold -$21.60 (-1.8%), whilst Silver faired far worse, -$3.83 (-19.7%). Outlook into mid 2015 remains bearish, with Gold $1000/900... and Silver 12/10.

Gold, monthly2, fib levels

Silver, monthly2, fib levels

Summary

*the following remains the 'best guess' wave count for this multi-year retrace, after having rallied a full decade.

GLD, monthly'2

SLV, monthly'2

Summary

Suffice to say... for the gold bugs, it was another year of disappointment.

To me.. the continued weakness was most certainly not surprising, and I hold to the original targets from spring 2012.. when the key break of trend occurred.

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*I will be looking to go heavy long the metals (ETFs and physical), AND miners in summer 2015. For now, I remain more than content to sit on the sidelines.. and wait for another sig' wave lower, which should at least take Gold to $1000.. if not briefly 900/875.

On any basis, going long metals/miners, when Gold is around $1000/900, seems like a superb level to get involved for the long term.
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Tuesday, 30 December 2014

The precious metals continue to see some rather significant day to day swings. After the sig' Monday declines, Gold and Silver saw net Tuesday gains of 1.3% and 3.2% respectively. Near term outlook remains 'choppy'... but within a much broader down trend.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say... it remains a real choppy mess... but both metals remain close to breaking new multi-year lows.

Monday, 29 December 2014

The metals have begun another week with rather significant Monday declines. Gold and Silver settled -1.0% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued weakness, within a much broader down trend. Gold still looks set to test the giant $1000 threshold in 2015.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Little to add.

The recent multi-week bear flags have been provisionally confirmed.. but the metals are yet to break new cycle lows.

Regardless of any further short term chop... the broader trend remains bearish into mid 2015.

Friday, 26 December 2014

With significant Friday gains, the metals managed to close broadly flat for the week. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +0.1% and -0.2% respectively. Price structure remains a large bear flag, which has already been arguably confirmed.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Most notable... King $ remains King.. set to strengthen across most.. if not all of 2015, and that should keep strong downward pressure on Gold, Silver and even Copper.
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*I've zero interest in being long the metals until Gold is trading around $1000, if not the 900/875 zone by mid 2015.

If metals remain broadly weak.. the mining stocks will similarly remain subdued.. regardless of further main market strength.

Monday, 22 December 2014

With price structure having been a rather large multi-week bear flag, the metals have arguably now decisively broken lower. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.9% and -2.5% respectively. Outlook is offering a year end close for Gold of $1100/1080.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

The metals were increasingly weak across the day, and the daily close is arguably pretty important.

Friday, 19 December 2014

Whilst the broader US capital markets were especially pleased this week, the precious metals are back on the slide. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -2.2% and -5.6% respectively. Price structure remains a very big multi-week bear flag, next downside target is $1100/1080 for Gold... within the next 2-4 weeks.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say... the weekly declines are pretty significant.

The bear flag has arguably already been broken.. although it is somewhat dependent on how a given chartist might draw it.

In any case... precious metals are due another wave lower. Gold looks set for the $1000 threshold in the first half of 2015. The only issue is whether 900/875 zone is possible before a multi-year floor is put in. Right now... I'm guessing ... YES.
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*the broad USD strength... set to break into the 90s.. and hit DXY 100 next year... is going to be a real problem for the those in gold bug land.

Wednesday, 17 December 2014

Whilst equities soared, the precious metals failed to be part of the party. Gold continued to cool, settling -0.6%, although Silver did manage a fractional gain of 0.1%. Broader outlook is for much lower levels, with Gold still to test the giant $1000 threshold, if not eventually 900/875 zone.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Little to add.

So.. the last FOMC of the year does nothing to change policy (as expected)... and for the metals.. this was not enough to inspire any sustainable gains.

Price structure remains a giant bear flag for both metals... and a major snap lower is still due.

The strong dollar is going to provide added downward pressure on the metals... into next year.

Monday, 15 December 2014

The week has started pretty grim for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of a very significant -2.4% and -5.1% respectively. With the last FOMC of the year this Wednesday, there is high threat of much lower levels into year end.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say... a very poor start to the week... and with a very clear multi-week bear flag, outlook is very bearish into year end and January.
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Friday, 12 December 2014

Whilst the broader US equity market saw some significant weakness, there was further strength in the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 2.6% and 4.4% respectively. Price structure remains a large bear flag, and there remains high probability of another major wave lower.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Price structure remains a large multi-week bear flag.

With the FOMC next Wednesday, I am seeking renewed weakness, with a break of the flag... next downside target is spot gold of $1100/1080.. which is still viable before year end.

Regardless of the rest of the year... the broader trend remains bearish into mid 2015.

Friday, 5 December 2014

The precious metals managed rather significant gains this week. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 2.1% and 5.3% respectively. However, price structure is yet another multi week bear flag... another wash out into year end looks highly probable.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say... with the US dollar at five year highs, and set for much higher levels (not least if the ECB start a QE-pomo program), the metals look highly vulnerable.
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Holding to broader downside targets...

Gold $1000, if not the 900/875 zone in second half of 2015.
Silver 12/10
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If those targets are correct, the mining stocks will remain very subdued, regardless of how strong the broader equity market is.

Monday, 1 December 2014

It was no surprise to see significant overnight declines - not least via the Swiss 'no' vote, but the Monday gains were a surprise. Gold and Silver settled with strong gains of 4.0% and 6.4% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, within what remains a broader down trend.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

It was the biggest net daily gain for the precious metals of the year (I believe), but even more significant.. when considering the overnight declines (Gold hit $1141).. this was the biggest 24hr swing in a very considerable time (at least spring 2011, when the bubble burst).

However, even a brief review of the daily cycles will show that the metals have seen some pretty wild moves since early November.

Despite today's powerful gains... I hold to the original broader downside targets.

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I (Permabear Doomster) am not a financial advisor as officially endorsed by any national government, corporation, financial/securities regulatory authority in neither the USA, UK, or any part of the world. None of the posts/comments in these pages are intended as trading/investment advice. They are merely my opinion on where a given market/stock and any other 'instrument, index, etc' may move at any future time.