Wednesday, November 19, 2008

We got three
Rant-predicted outcomes for the price of
one today - well, almost.

In the pre-market SPI and in the early part of the cash
session, we got the bounce that was mentioned in yesterday's OzRant.

Then, the market reversed with a vengeance - in full
compliance with the 'only nuffies buy the opening spike' thesis that I
have mentioned countless times in these pages.

And last - and this is why I say 'almost' - the
ASX200 dropped
into the
low 3400s. My target for this bear leg - made explicit when
the SPI was
above 4150 - was 3400 on the ASX200.

So, is this the end of the bear campaign? Will the decline end
on
the day that the All Ords marked a 50% decline from its all-time high
(6873, set on November 1 2007)?

Do you seriously think that the market would drop, kiss the
50% retracement point (actually it went 6.5 points below the halfway
point), and then go up, up and awaaaaaay?
Sorry, no sale.

We're going lower from here.

I've banged on about my hero - Richard Feynman - from time to
time.
Today I watched a 5-part video interview from 1981. If you want to
understand what I consider to be the perfect philosophical approach to
life and research, then treat yourself to a quiet and entertaining
hour, and watch all 5 parts.
It's fantastic, and it's also funny that he has such a 'Sopranos'
accent. You honestly expect him to say 'Badda bing badda boom'.

In claiming to have a similar worldview to Feynman, I'm not
making the claim that I am as clever as Feynman was . What I
am
saying is that his general outlook and mine are very similar, and that
I think that 'our' outlook is one that did not materialise out of thin
air or happen by accident - it is something that people 'like us'
pursue as a matter of principle, having tested and rejected other
approaches.

That's not hugely remarkable, though. His general mien
is also strikingly similar to Peter 'Dicko' Dixon and also to the late
Ross Parish - two professors who played a fundamental part in my
economics training, and whose commitment to rigour (and hatred of
bureaucracy) I absorbed through osmosis.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO)
- declined gently, dropping 29.9 points (0.85%), finishing at 3483.2
points. The index hit an intraday high of 3537.4 at 10:10 am, while the
low for the day was 3430.2 - set at 12:03 am Sydney time.

Yep, you saw right: after the nuffie spike, the index dropped
over 100 points in a little under two hours. And as I said yesterday, the
late-day attempt at a bounce is yet another sign that everyone
is still
trying to pick the bottom.

The day posted the lowest intraday low since May 27th 2004
(and the lowest close since August 16th 2004), and was gone for all
money at midday... and yet people stepped up to the plate. Where's the
'selling panic'?

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.44bn units, 23.6% above
its 10-day average of 1.16bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all
stocks included 1195 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had
non-zero trade volume). Of these, 272 issues rose, with volume in
rising issues totalling 389.4m units; there were 655 declining stocks,
which traded aggregate declining volume of 866.9m shares. So the
advance-decline ratio is a little under 0.5, as is the A/D volume
ratio. And the market rallied 50 points from low to close.

Hardly a capitulation.

Of the 489 All Ordinaries components, 124 rose while 284 fell.
Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 2:1, with
358.23m shares traded in gainers while 730.38m shares traded in the
day's losers.

The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of
177.68m units; 11 index components rose, with rising volume amounting
to 110.39m shares, while the 10 decliners had volume traded totalling
67.29m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

Suncorp-Metway. (SUN),
+$0.58 (9.18%) to $6.90 on volume of 5 million shares;

ANZ Banking Group (ANZ),
+$0.78 (5.98%) to $13.82 on volume of 16.4 million shares;

Macquarie Group (MQG),
+$1.16 (4.83%) to $25.16 on volume of 2.1 million shares;

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC),
+$0.70 (4.5%) to $16.25 on volume of 16 million shares; and

Wesfarmers (WES),
+$0.51 (2.8%) to $18.72 on volume of 3.2 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the
following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

QBE Insurance Group (QBE),
-$1.51 (6.33%) to $22.34 on volume of 5.8 million shares;

Woolworths (WOW),
-$1.15 (4.38%) to $25.10 on volume of 4.6 million shares;

BHP Billiton (BHP),
-$1 (4.13%) to $23.20 on volume of 20.6 million shares;

Foster's Group (FGL),
-$0.21 (3.7%) to $5.47 on volume of 11.9 million shares; and

RIO Tinto (RIO),
-$2.1 (3.09%) to $65.90 on volume of 2.4 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO)
registered a loss of 21.4 points (1.26%), closing out the session at
1677.2 points. The index traded a total of 312.04m units: volume in the
60 gainers totalling 81.27m shares, with trade totalling 206.08m units
in the index's 128 declining components. The major percentage gainers
within the index were

Market Breadth

GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, it was pretty much even
stevens, with a very slight lead to the duds... the 5 that had an "up"
day were just shaded by the remaining 6 which didn't.

The best performing index was Financials ex Property
Trusts (XXJ),
which added 84.8 points (2.32%) to 3734.4 points. The 27 stocks which
make up the index traded a total of 101.39m units; 12 index components
rose, with rising volume amounting to 67.76m shares, while the 14
decliners had volume traded totalling 31.03m units. The major
percentage gainers within the index were

ANZ Banking Group (ANZ),
+$0.78 (5.98%) to $13.82 on volume of 16.4 million shares; and

Macquarie Group (MQG),
+$1.16 (4.83%) to $25.16 on volume of 2.1 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Property
Trusts (XPJ),
which gained 9.8 points (1.01%) to 981.3 points. The 21 stocks which
make up the index traded a total of 170.5m units; 13 index components
rose, with rising volume amounting to 122.25m shares, while the 7
decliners had volume traded totalling 45.47m units. The major
percentage gainers within the index were

Mirvac Group (MGR),
+$0.10 (6.9%) to $1.55 on volume of 21.7 million shares;

Valad Property Group (VPG),
+$0.00 (4.92%) to $0.06 on volume of 6.2 million shares;

The bronze medal for today goes to Telecommunications
(XTJ),
which climbed 6.3 points (0.46%) to 1375.1 points. The 3 stocks which
make up the index traded a total of 40.44m units; 2 index components
rose, with rising volume amounting to 37.72m shares.
The percentage gainers within the index were

Singapore Telecommunications. (SGT),
+$0.02 (0.82%) to $2.47 on volume of 2.7 million shares; and

Telstra Corporation. (TLS),
+$0.02 (0.49%) to $4.10 on volume of 35 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Materials
(XMJ),
which dipped 286.8 points (3.82%) to 7225.8 points. The 45 stocks which
make up the index traded a total of 254.92m units; The 29 decliners had
volume traded totalling 224.5m units, and 15 index components rose,
with rising volume amounting to 28.59m shares, The major percentage
decliners within the index were

Gunns (GNS),
-$0.19 (17.62%) to $0.87 on volume of 2.3 million shares;

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG),
-$0.26 (15.84%) to $1.36 on volume of 11.7 million shares;

OM Holdings (OMH),
-$0.13 (14.29%) to $0.78 on volume of 1.8 million shares;

OZ Minerals (OZL),
-$0.1 (13.7%) to $0.63 on volume of 71.7 million shares; and

PanAust Ltd (PNA),
-$0.03 (12.82%) to $0.17 on volume of 22.2 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Consumer
Discretionary (XDJ),
which slid 32.9 points (2.92%) to 1092.5 points. The 23 stocks which
make up the index traded a total of 61.39m units; The 16 decliners had
volume traded totalling 54.09m units, and 6 index components rose, with
rising volume amounting to 5.26m shares, The major percentage decliners
within the index were

Fairfax Media (FXJ),
-$0.19 (11.67%) to $1.40 on volume of 13.4 million shares;

Crown (CWN),
-$0.58 (10.03%) to $5.20 on volume of 3.2 million shares;

David Jones (DJS),
-$0.21 (7.34%) to $2.65 on volume of 3.9 million shares;

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN),
-$0.12 (5.22%) to $2.18 on volume of 4.1 million shares; and

Flight Centre (FLT),
-$0.45 (5.03%) to $8.50 on volume of 1.2 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Information
Technology (XIJ),
which slid 9.2 points (2.35%) to 382.7 points. The index has only two
components - both fell...