“Sunday is going to be off because its Christmas Eve, but with Christmas on a Monday this year it’s going to be a four-day weekend,” an insider explains. “Based on what ‘What Women Want‘ did last week (opening to $33.6 million), ‘Cast Away‘ could open to $30 million-plus for four days. They’ll be number one.”

“A lot of business is going to happen over the four days,” predicts another studio source. “I assume ‘Cast Away‘ is going to be number one. I think it’s going to do around $35 million.”

Second place could see competition between Paramount’s PG-13-rated romantic comedy from Icon Productions “What Women Want” and Universal’s opening at about 2,400 theaters of its PG-13 romantic fantasy from Beacon Communications “The Family Man,” with each looking at mid-week like they could do $20-25 million.

Insiders expressed varying views of which film will be the strongest. With about half of its marketing campaign running this week, “Family Man” should see some major benefit in terms of boosting moviegoer awareness just as it opens.

“‘Women’ should do $25-28 million,” predicts a more enthusiastic distributor, claiming the close race will be for third place and will be between “Family Man” and “The Grinch.”

“‘Family Man‘ could be number two,” counters another observer, “and ‘Grinch‘ could be sitting there (in fourth place) with $15 million for four days.”

CHRISTMAS BOX OFFICE Unlike Thanksgiving, which, of course, always falls on a Thursday and always generates a five-day box office period (from Wednesday through Sunday), Christmas falls on a different day of the week every year. As a result, comparisons of Christmas box office business are difficult to make. Some years Christmas is part of a four-day holiday weekend, while in other years the holiday is part of a three-day weekend, and in other years the holiday falls mid-week and is not connected to the weekend that follows it.

Having Christmas fall on a Monday, explains one distribution executive, “is not ideal, but it’s certainly better than Christmas on a Sunday, which kills your Saturday night business. There should be a strong Friday and Saturday. People are obviously off for the weekend. Christmas Eve will slump, but then Christmas Day will be good. Then the mid-week business will be strong.”

Focusing on the same question, another distributor says Christmas falling on a Monday “is good because Christmas eve on a Sunday is a day off for everybody and they can go to movies during the day, not at night, and still participate in Christmas Eve activities.”

If we could work things out to have Christmas always fall on the same day of the week, which day would Hollywood pick? “I’d probably pick a Tuesday or Thursday,” replies one insider, “because then there’s a tendency for people to just take the extra day off. When it’s on Thursday, then it becomes like Thanksgiving. So you’re off on Thursday for Christmas Day — well, who’s going to go back to the office for one day? Now, all of a sudden, you’ve got a four-day weekend, and your Christmas Eve was only a week night (that got hurt), so who cares?

“I don’t like Christmas Eve to ever be one of the weekend nights. But I like Christmas to be close enough to the weekend. Thursday is really ideal because even it’s on Tuesday, then people take off Monday, but they’re taking off a day when they’re not going to go to the movies at night.”

Wednesday is seen as a bad day for Christmas, this source adds, because “it’s sort of neither here nor there. It’s smack right in the middle of the week and it’s harder for people to say, ‘Oh, I’ll take an extra two days off.’ The worst day is Sunday because it kills Saturday night. That was last year. It’s one of those things like the weather. You can speculate, but you can’t do a darn thing about it.”

In 1999, Christmas fell on a Saturday. Key films — those grossing $500,000 or more for the weekend — did $95.0 million for the weekend of Dec. 24-26. Warner Bros.’ opening of “Any Given Sunday” led the pack with $13.58 million and a five-day cume of $20.6 million. Paramount’s opening of “The Talented Mr. Ripley” was second with $12.74 million for two days.

In 1998, Christmas fell on a Frida . Key films took in $142.4 million for the weekend of Dec. 25-27. Universal’s opening of “Patch Adams” was first with $25.26 million. Sony’s launch of “Stepmom” was second with $19.14 million.

In 1997, Christmas fell on a Thursday. Key films grossed $140.1 million for the weekend of Dec. 26-28. Paramount’s “Titanic” topped the chart with $35.46 million and had a 10-day cume (from its opening until the end of the Christmas weekend) of $88.4 million. MGM’s James Bond epic “Tomorrow Never Dies” was second with $20.48 million and a 10-day cume of $62.2 million. Sony’s opening of “As Good As It Gets” finished third with $12.61 million and a four-day cume of $16.2 million.

In 1996, Christmas fell on a Wednesday. Key films did $109.4 million for the post-Christmas weekend of Dec. 27-29. New Line’s opening of “Michael” was first with $17.44 million and a five-day cume of $27.6 million. Sony’s “Jerry Maguire” was second with $14.02 million and a 17-day cume of $60.4 million.

In 1995, Christmas fell on a Monday. Key films collected $90.6 million for the four-day weekend of Dec. 22-25. 20th Century Fox’s opening of “Waiting To Exhale” was first with $14.13 million for four days. Buena Vista/Disney’s “Toy Story” was second with $12.11 million and a 34-day cume of $115.7 million.

In 1994, Christmas fell on a Sunday. Key films did $86.28 million for the four day weekend of Dec. 23-26. New Line’s “Dumb and Dumber” was first with $15.59 million and an 11-day cume of $40.7 million. Buena Vista/Disney’s “The Santa Clause” was second with $9.78 million and a 46-day cume of $123.2 million.