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Even though today’s losses are low, there is hope for traders as long as Bitcoin prices are oscillating above $3,700. Drops below this minor support line could trigger sells towards $3,220 or lower in the next few days.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

At spot prices, Bitcoin is down 3.8 percent in the past 24 hours but stable in the last hour. The coin is flat and trading within a tight trade range contrary to yesterday’s rapidity.

From candlestick arrangement, we expect prices to cool down and even expand towards $4,000 before bears wash down gains in the direction of Jan 10 losses while reaffirming bear trend continuation as spelled by the price action of mid-November and early Dec 2018. Our short-term bullish trend is valid and until after there is a clean break and close below $3,700, there is hope for BTC long traders.

Fundamentals

Different governments have different views on cryptocurrencies. To meet popular demand, some are opening doors and even allowing exchanges to self-regulate. Countries like Japan are very open, embracing new technology while others are not interested in the application of blockchain to create competing, censor resistant currencies.

When everything is said and done, it’s all about control and China, as we know, is strict. Although we understand their companies are leaders in crypto, filling patents rivaling those from the US and Europe, the country is against the proliferation of Bitcoin and crypto. However, they see a future in the blockchain. That is why the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) is releasing a new document detailing new regulation that crypto and blockchain companies must adhere with.

Once it becomes law by Feb 19,2019, blockchain companies would divulge log user activities on request, allow authorities access to private data and even reveal groups or individuals behind secret or anonymous accounts. It bins all blockchain principles and is authoritarian even though it is for the good of national security.

Candlestick Arrangement

As aforementioned and from previous BTC/USD trade plans, the rejection of higher highs right off the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level hints of underlying bear momentum. Since none of our conservative trade conditions came to pass and bulls didn’t close above $4,500, we recommend patience aware that liquidation below $3,700 or Dec 28 bulls and bull flag base could lead to further drops to $3,220. Uncertainty reigns and to avoid the claws of bears, we suggest liquidating BTC holdings for stable coins while stepping up if prices drop below $3,700.

Technical Indicators

Jan 10 declines were at the back of above average volumes—35k versus 18k right off the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level. Reversal at this level was significant. Any confirming drops below $3,700–even with light volumes, could lead to further drawn down in sync with Dec 20 high volume bear bar—117k versus 37k.