Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Denier weirdness: It hasn't warmed since 2017!

Remember how Bob Tisdale thought that Mark Boslough's bet was foolish? Well he finally twigged what the bet was about, and was even more aghast that anyone would be expected to bet. He realised just how laughable it would be to bet that the world would cool, which is an unusual attitude for a hard-core science denier like Bob Tisdale. His chart showed just how much it's been warming, which is a most unusual thing for anyone at WUWT to do.

Perhaps in part because Bob showed just how hot it's been getting, some of the WUWT deniers seem to accept it. They aren't giving up though. The new denier chant of "it hasn't warmed since 2017" has already begun at WUWT, two years early. The following comments were seen under another article by Bob Tisdale (in which he shoved the latest global temperatures down to the level of those in 1997/98 to compare ENSO events):

...If there is no long lasting step change in temperatures coincident with the current strong El Nino what is likely to happen is that over the next 4 months, there will be a short lived spike, and then the following La Nina in late 2016/early 2017 will bring temperatures down again, and following that La Nina temperatures may well stabilize around the 2001 to 2003 level going forward into 2018/19.

ENSO has of course been running for many millennia. If there were only step-up temp shifts, the oceans would be boiling by now. Climate system feedbacks and the random interplay between solar cycle mins/maxes and coupled ocean-atmosphere climate cycles ultimately ensures reversion to mean and a stable temperature.

...I think we will see a downward (cooling) trend, starting as early as 2H2017.

...Care to estimate when global cooling will be apparent in the satellite Lower Troposphere (LT) temperature data?

My best guess based on conversations with my knowledgeable friends, is some time in 2017.

That will, of course, require some time thereafter to confirm it is not just a downward blip – but I am guessing that 2017 will be the inflection year that clearly exhibits, in the satellite LT data, the start of a multi-decadal global cooling cycle.

Here's a mock-up of Richard Verney's prediction for the record, in case anyone wants to check back in 2018.

The times they are a changing. The Daily Mail prints a George Monbiot flooding article, David Rose compliments him on it and no one dare crawl out from under a stone and say that the current floods in the UK are not the result of climate change.

There's a denialist ratchet occurring here... Any upward movement in the temperature record is a temporary bit of noise, but every (on average) smaller tick downward is the "cooling"/"not warming /"pause" signal manifesting. Do they not see the absurdity of their stance*?

Though after a fashion the Denialati are correct - there is a cooling trend: it just happens to be a negative cooling trend...

July 2022, as the Earth swelters through yet another mysteriously warm year of unknown cause, a rogue interstellar Earth-size planet enters the solar system in the plane of the ecliptic and scores a perfect bulls-eye retrograde crash into Venus at a relative velocity of 25 km/s. As a vast cloud of dust to continent-size debris spreads out through the plane of what used to be Venus's orbit and inwards towards Mercury, solar radiation reaching the Earth drops 1%, 2%, 5%... and ultimately 10%. Cold and snow and ice blanket the planet outside the tropics. A new ice age begins.

"Told you so," says a smug Tony Watts, sitting in front of a warm coal fire.

A rare (or... maybe not) insight into DB Stealey's right-wing authoritarian follower mindset. Because he is working backwards from the assumption that almost all of the recent warming is 'natural' (or else his entire world-view falls apart), he can't even get his basic maths straight: there is total warming, some fraction of which is natural, and the rest, which is due to mankind.

As we know, mankind is in fact responsible for more than 100% of the warming since the 1950's. But the warming is offset somewhat by the negative forcing of aerosols, caused by activities like burning half of Indonesia to make way for palm oil plantations.

interestingly reading the comments on the WUWT blog (referenced above) at least one person (Adam from Kansas) is beginning to admit that if the temps/trend continue to rise then, well maybe there is something in this AGW "malarkey" after all

"I was as excited as any other skeptic when the pause kept going with the prospect of temperatures turning downward, but eventually it may come to the point where we have to face facts"

you will never change the minds of the hard-core deniers, after all anything can be made to sound plausible you just have to be gullible to believe it

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All you need to know about WUWT

WUWT insider Willis Eschenbach tells you all you need to know about Anthony Watts and his blog, WattsUpWithThat (WUWT). As part of his scathing commentary, Wondering Willis accuses Anthony Watts of being clueless about the blog articles he posts. To paraphrase:

Even if Anthony had a year to analyze and dissect each piece...(he couldn't tell if it would)... stand the harsh light of public exposure.

Definition of Denier (Oxford): A person who denies something, especially someone who refuses to admit the truth of a concept or proposition that is supported by the majority of scientific or historical evidence.
‘a prominent denier of global warming’
‘a climate change denier’

Alternative definition: A former French coin, equal to one twelfth of a Sou, which was withdrawn in the 19th century. Oxford. (The denier has since resurfaced with reduced value.)