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One could be forgiven for looking at where the Maple Leafs are currently sitting and imagining that a second consecutive berth in the Stanley Cup playoffs is a very solid bet.

Just 22 games left. Seven points ahead of the ninth-place Columbus Blue Jackets. One point behind Tampa Bay for second in the division.

Hardly on the brink, at least not today.

Moreover, the Leafs went into the Olympic break on a 7-2-1 tear. They re-open the season after a 19-day furlough in Long Island on Thursday where the Islanders will be finding out just how big a hole Team Latvia left in Jack Capuano’s lineup by injuring star centre John Tavares.

Finally, the Leafs are approaching maximum health, with David Bolland and Marlies captain Trevor Smith, a very useful Leaf earlier this season, both close to returning to action. Only three Leafs — Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk and Nikolai Kulemin — were in Sochi, and all came back unscathed.

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The rest should, in theory, be well rested. Or at least tanned.

So all systems go for the post-season, right?

Well, probably. Which is why GM Dave Nonis isn’t contemplating major changes prior to next Wednesday’s trade deadline, which may include keeping both Bolland and Kulemin, although both are unrestricted free agents in July. While the New York Rangers are unlikely to do that with Ryan Callahan and the Isles seem almost certain to move Thomas Vanek because of his impending unrestricted status, the Leafs feel comfortable after the Tyler Bozak experience last year that they can sign the players they want even if they test the market.

Backup goalie James Reimer also seems likely to stay. Nonis has no intention of turning a team strength into a weakness by leaving Jonathan Bernier without a high-quality understudy.

Anything is possible, one supposes, and sure in an ideal world Nonis would love to think he could add a forward capable of playing in his top nine, or even a top-end defenceman. But the realistic expectation is a depth player added for a middle- to low-round draft pick. So what you currently see is what you’re going to get as far as the Leaf roster goes.

Now here’s where this pretty picture starts to get a little murky.

The Leaf schedule for those 22 remaining games isn’t a walk in the park (skate on the Rideau?) and that’s aside from the fact 13 of those games are on the road where the Leafs have, so far, won 11 and lost 17, with five of those losses coming via overtime or shootout.

Only Carolina, Florida, Washington and Buffalo have garnered fewer points away from home among Eastern Conference teams this season than the Leafs. The most difficult challenges come in the next 10 games, where eight are on the road including a ride through California hell with games against Anaheim, San Jose and Los Angeles.

Also, 13 of those 22 games left are against teams currently in a playoff position. Two of those other nine are against Detroit, and one each against Winnipeg and Ottawa, all clubs likely to be fighting until the final week of the regular season for a playoff berth.

So what does all this mean? The Leafs aren’t going to be able to just coast their way into the playoffs, or just stay hot (seven straight wins) at the ACC. They’ll need 24 to 26 points out of a possible 44 to make it, and given the schedule that’s a tall order for a team that has already suffered through a long dry spell this season. A repeat of that would mean bye-bye to the playoffs.

The intriguing question, and this applies to the other 29 teams as well, is what will the Leafs look like on Thursday after nearly three weeks off?

The top line of Kessel, van Riemsdyk and Bozak was clicking, but the first two had a sour end to their Olympics and Bozak’s been sitting around. The entire blue-line corps has been idle. and it’ll be interesting to see if Tim Gleason, such a useful addition New Year’s Day, will continue to add those intangibles he was certainly adding before the break.

On the flip side, Joffrey Lupul has had a middling season, with three goals in his last 15 games to go with a minus-10 rating. Lupul may need to get scoring, particularly if the first-liners can’t stay as hot as they were.

The Leafs, as a group, have been inconsistent and at times erratic this season. They’ve allowed a league-worst 36.2 shots per game, which has translated into the 25th-best goals-against average in the NHL.

Team Canada demonstrated in Sochi that defence still wins championships. But that was the Olympics and that was the big ice.

Still, this much seems true. The combination of a challenging schedule and a defensive shell that keeps showing major cracks is unlikely to be a formula that delivers playoff gates to the ACC in April.

And the Leafs would hate to leave the Raptors with the place to themselves.

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