Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Comments

I think the under the radar set may be the superman Lex Luthor one. (well not after I bring it up anyway :-) )I'm not sure many people are buying them (as it just seems to me to be a bit pricy for what it is) and it does have the 'comic book' design Superman where I think the new Superman sets will be in that darker blue color for the movie, if I am not mistakenI think that despite the numbers out there that the Funhouse will do well too just because of the figures in it.

The SH sets do nothing for me. I have none in my personal collection and they all are purely Minifig driven which means you are at the mercy of those figs or similar versions not appearing in subesquent sets. The sets themselves are rubbish for the most part. I may miss the boat, but I am staying away from the SH sets short a 50-70% discount (I'll buy anything at that level :))

I think the minifigs are awesome, but curious about something someone said earlier. Now that we have noticed Lego starting to repeat cycles (Jabba Barge, Arkham Asylum), I wonder if the collectibilility market might be much smaller than before. There is no doubt that many, many more sets are made these days and many more "speculators" than before. I think the average person will buy the newer sets, as let's be honest, none of the earlier SW or HP sets can hold a candle to the new ones, just like all the sets from 10yrs from now, will look much better than the ones of today. I think this is something to consider when buying minifig driven sets.

Just read that the first series of Chima Speedorz has been tagged with the Retiring Soon label (same with Friends animals). It will be interesting to see if they perform as well as some Ninjago spinners did. Outside of dabbling with a the Lloyd craze I've stayed out of the Ninjago theme and will likely stay out of Chima. Having a hard time gauging whether Chima is a hit or not.

Now that we have noticed Lego starting to repeat cycles (Jabba Barge, Arkham Asylum), I wonder if the collectibilility market might be much smaller than before. There is no doubt that many, many more sets are made these days and many more "speculators" than before. I think the average person will buy the newer sets, as let's be honest, none of the earlier SW or HP sets can hold a candle to the new ones, just like all the sets from 10yrs from now, will look much better than the ones of today. I think this is something to consider when buying minifig driven sets.

LEGO hasn't just started the practice of redesigns with Jabba's Sail Barge or Arkham Asylum; they've been redesigning Star Wars sets since 2004. Surely there are effects that redesigns have on the collectors' market, but I don't even know if I could tell you if it's better or worse because of it, much less say that it is MUCH more so in either direction.

Also, while I agree that many of the Star Wars redesigns are better, it's not always the case, and it's far from a foregone conclusion that sets 10 years from now will be better than those of today. I greatly prefer sets from the mid-to-late 80's over those that were released in the mid-to-late 90's.

Aren't Friends Pets going to be just like the CMF. One shot to get them (a few months), and they're done, with another new series out to replace it. Therefore as soon as they are out, they are on the retirement list.

Once Disney starts releasing new Star Wars movies LEGO will have less time to redesign old sets as the new material will need to be addressed. With Star Wars never ending (now that Disney has it), new die hard fans (not yet born) may look back and want some of the older stuff.

Maybe a slight parallel to baseball cards... New cards are "nicer"/more fancy in some ways (game used bat/jersey, gold foil, etc) but a die hard collector is going to want to get their hands on older, rare cards.

So with the release of #10240 what do we think #7191 will do. In Australia at least it had been selling well a couple going for $1200 AUD on eBay, but I have seen them for as low as $800 new in box over the last 6 months.

I'm thinking well see a larger number going for sale and prices will drop, by how much I'm not sure, due to the greater supply and lower demand, as some decide to just go with the new one.

Just read that the first series of Chima Speedorz has been tagged with the Retiring Soon label (same with Friends animals).

Actually no. They are there to up sales. The Speedorz and Friends sets all display the "NEW" label.

Nope. LEGO Shop Facebook comment:

Just wanted to clarify that there is no mistake on the Friends and Chima items. The Friends Pets and Chima Speedorz are set to refresh on much shorter timelines than most sets.

If you check the 'retiring soon' moniker for those sets (http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon) , they are listed as 'new' and not 'retiring soon' just like CMF 9 are listed as such but I'm guessing they around for a while.. I guess anything is possible though if they are bags sets.

Just read that the first series of Chima Speedorz has been tagged with the Retiring Soon label (same with Friends animals).

Actually no. They are there to up sales. The Speedorz and Friends sets all display the "NEW" label.

Nope. LEGO Shop Facebook comment:

Just wanted to clarify that there is no mistake on the Friends and Chima items. The Friends Pets and Chima Speedorz are set to refresh on much shorter timelines than most sets.

If you check the 'retiring soon' moniker for those sets (http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon) , they are listed as 'new' and not 'retiring soon' just like CMF 9 are listed as such but I'm guessing they around for a while.. I guess anything is possible though if they are bags sets.

Click on the set itself and check out the tags. It says both 'new' and 'retiring soon'. :)

Just read that the first series of Chima Speedorz has been tagged with the Retiring Soon label (same with Friends animals).

Actually no. They are there to up sales. The Speedorz and Friends sets all display the "NEW" label.

Nope. LEGO Shop Facebook comment:

Just wanted to clarify that there is no mistake on the Friends and Chima items. The Friends Pets and Chima Speedorz are set to refresh on much shorter timelines than most sets.

If you check the 'retiring soon' moniker for those sets (http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon) , they are listed as 'new' and not 'retiring soon' just like CMF 9 are listed as such but I'm guessing they around for a while.. I guess anything is possible though if they are bags sets.

Click on the set itself and check out the tags. It says both 'new' and 'retiring soon'. :)

Bottom line, if you want a Death Star, Fire Brigade or whatever else to build for yourself then if you can afford the set and its a decent price you should probably get it! Waiting around until just before it goes eol is madness.

If you're reselling then maybe wait until closer to the time but you may be waiting a long time for some of these sets to go. Or maybe not..!

^ I think it's a great set, even though I haven't built mine. I got one for my Mum and she built it with a little help. Sure it is fragile but its not really a play set and to get the details it has for its size you have to expect this sort of thing.

I see these type of sets as more of a scale model then just Lego, i've dabbled in model wooden boat building, now there fragile!

The VW camper is probably one of my favourite sets, the details included are excellent and it's a really fun build. I got the impression that the roof purposely came off easily so you could access the features inside easier.

I think the VW Camper will do well once it's EOL'd. If you watch the TLG video, the roof is made to detach so you can access the inside. If memory serves, the VW came out about the same time as the SW IS and the IS is now gone. The VW should be nearing the end...

VW will still probably be out, It looked it it was out of stock around Christmas but now it appears stocks are back up.Also just because Amazon does not have it now, does not mean it will not be back in a few weeks

It is hard to see retirement on it, it is by far the most playable set TLG has ever made. Cost is the only stumbling block to every SW Lego mad kid out there owning one. It is great value for money however. I think TLG could churn these out for another 10 years and still have no bother selling them. Having a worthy successor that will outshine the DS would be the most logical reason for retirement. Welcome back LFT!

Having a worthy successor that will outshine the DS would be the most logical reason for retirement. Welcome back LFT!

Thanks! :)

As for 10188 - the primary issue over time I think becomes the price for what you get.

The part count, the weight of the parts, the cost to print that big manual... at some point, the set either needs a price increase, or it becomes such a bargin that it really starts to make new sets like Rancor Pit look like the terrible deal that it is. :)

What if they retired 10188 this year, waited 12 months, then came out with a Death Star Mk II, like the new Technic Mobile Crane? They could up the part count to 4,100 to make people feel like it was "more", they could refresh the minifigs to current designs, they could redo the build and make it "fresh", and then up the price to $499.