2015-03-31T20:49:48ZEfectos de una alta penetración de energías renovables en el sistema eléctricohttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/18440
Efectos de una alta penetración de energías renovables en el sistema eléctrico
Bueno Lorenzo, Miriam
The increased share of renewable energies has changed both power system functioning
and conventional plants operation. With regard to the latter, power plants using fuel
have change their operation mode to accommodate to the variability and partial predictability
of renewable energy sources. This fact increases the operation costs of the
conventional plants. Besides, market prices behaviour will experience changes, such as
the decrease of average prices and the increase of their variability. The positive e ects
of an increased renewable installed capacity are also assessed. Furthermore, in countries
with abundant solar resource, studying the e ects of a higher share of renewable energy
sources on the generation mix is necessary, including a high portion of photovoltaic and
solar thermal energy in the generation portfolio. Therefore, a model of the concentrated
solar power generators has been developed in this work. The results of the thermoelectric
model supplies the annual production of this technology, which has been integrated in
the generation schedule model. To analyse the impact of the future con guration of the
generation mix on the power system, a model of unit commitment has been employed.
It includes the characteristics and installed capacity of the generators using fuel and the
estimation of the future production series of renewable energies. The results discussion
contains an analysis of some relevant characteristics of the future power system behaviour,
such as, daily market prices, yearly production by technology, capacity factors of the different
technologies, wind spilled energy, ratio of demand coverage coming from renewable
sources, hourly variation of the energy supplied by hydro, coal, and natural gas power
plants, greenhouse emissions and operation costs.
2014-03-01T00:00:00ZSimulating scenarios and prediction intervals in wind power forecasting with the Beta distributionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/15790
Simulating scenarios and prediction intervals in wind power forecasting with the Beta distribution
Jaramillo Duque, Álvaro; Sánchez, Ismael; Castronuovo, Edgardo D.; Usaola, Julio
A methodology for the simulation of the wind power scenario for a short term horizon (one or two days in advance) is proposed. The covariance of the historical errors and the wind power forecast are use to generate a conditional random variable that represent the power wind production as a scenario. With the information provided by the scenario simulation, the energy deviation during a period and the prediction interval for each hour are obtained. The Beta distribution is used to represent the behaviour of the wind power production due to its better performance. With the results, it is possible to quantify the uncertainty of wind energy production. Finally, comparing the covariance and correlation of the simulated errors with historical errors, the procedure of the methodology is validated.
Proceedings of: 11th Spanish-Portuguese Conference on Electrical Engineering (XICHLIE), 1-4 Julio 2009, Zaragoza (España)
2009-04-01T00:00:00ZOptimal operation of a pumped-storage hydro plant that compensates the imbalances of a wind power producerhttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/15772
Optimal operation of a pumped-storage hydro plant that compensates the imbalances of a wind power producer
Jaramillo Duque, Álvaro; Castronuovo, Edgardo D.; Sánchez, Ismael; Usaola, Julio
The participation of wind energy in electricity markets requires providing a forecast for future energy production of a wind generator, whose value will be its scheduled energy. Deviations from this schedule because of prediction errors could imply the payment of imbalance costs. In order to decrease these costs, a joint operation between a wind farm and a hydro-pump plant is proposed; the hydro-pump plant changes its production to compensate wind power prediction errors. In order to optimize this operation, the uncertainty of the wind power forecast is modeled and quantified. This uncertainty is included in an optimization problem that shifts the production of the hydro-pump plant in an optimal way, aiming at reducing the imbalance costs. The result of such a method is profitable for both participants, the wind farm and the hydro-pump plant. A realistic test case is used to evaluate the proposed method.
2011-09-01T00:00:00ZOperación óptima de una planta hidráulica reversible que cubre los desvíos en la predicción de un productor eólicohttp://hdl.handle.net/10016/11761
Operación óptima de una planta hidráulica reversible que cubre los desvíos en la predicción de un productor eólico
Jaramillo Duque, Álvaro
En algunos mercados de energía eléctrica, el productor eólico debe proporcionar con antelación un programa de producción, usualmente basado en herramientas de predicción de potencia eólica. Adicionalmente, es responsable de asumir los desvíos que pueden darse entre las previsiones y la producción real de la energía. Con el fin de disminuir los sobre costos por desvíos, es propuesta la operación conjunta de una planta hidráulica reversible que adapta su operación para compensar los errores en la predicción de potencia eólica. Con el fin de optimizar la operación de la planta hidráulica reversible, es necesario cuantificar con antelación la incertidumbre de la predicción de potencia eólica. Para esto es desarrollado un método basado en los datos historicismos de la producción de potencia eólica y su predicción, con el cual se logra modelar la producción de potencia eólica y posteriormente, es posible definir intervalos de incertidumbre para la misma. Finalmente, es formulado un problema de optimización, utilizando como entradas la incertidumbre de la predicción y las características de la planta hidráulica reversible, donde el objetivo es encontrar el mejor programa de operación para la planta hidráulica reversible que cubra los posibles desvíos del productor eólica.Un caso realista es utilizado para evaluar el método propuesto.; The participation of wind energy in electricity markets requires providing a forecast for future
energy production of a wind generator, whose value will be its scheduled energy. Deviations
from this schedule because of prediction errors could imply the payment of imbalance costs.
In order to decrease these costs, a joint operation between a wind farm and a hydro-pump
plant is proposed; the hydro-pump plant changes its production to compensate wind power
prediction errors. In order to optimize this operation, the uncertainty of the wind power forecast
is modeled and quantified. This uncertainty is included in an optimization problem that shifts
the production of the hydro-pump plant in an optimal way, aiming at reducing the imbalance
costs. The result of such a method is profitable for both participants, the wind farm and the
hydro-pump plant. A realistic test case is used to evaluate the proposed method.
2009-09-29T00:00:00Z