Small fry; 28 February

Some small fry that might be of interest to political observers:

For the first time CU leader Rouvoet talks about the fall of government. He accuses
PvdA and CDA to focus too much on their party interest and the polls, instead of on policy.
(The CU, obviously, is different in that respect.)
The CU is starting to unfold its strategy against the CDA: the christian-democrats are
not to be trusted with principled stands; the CU is. If you want christians in parliament,
vote CU. Not really surprising, but it might net him one or two extra seats.
(Source: Nederlands Dagblad)

The NMP (Nederlandse Moslim Partij; Dutch Muslim Party) will participate in the elections.
Frankly I’ve forgotten exactly what kind of party this is, but it seems to be something
moderate and centrist. Chairman Kreeft (not an immigrant name, incidentally) estimates
about 5 seats. Dream on, honey.
I will start to pay attention to this party once it gets at least one
seat in at least one poll.
(Source: Telegraaf)

Speaking of them, Turkish and Moroccan Dutch with a high education are getting more interested
in D66 than in the traditional PvdA and GL. One more proof that the integration of children of
immigrants is proceeding apace. It’s just a pity that there aren’t that
many of this group; the vast majority of Turkish and Moroccan immigrants still has a pretty
low education. And they’re supposed to be less politically active than in 2006, when they
overwhelmingly voted PvdA.
(Source: Parool)

Self-identified PVV supporters threaten shopkeepers in Almere about election posters of
the NDP, a party I’ve never even heard of. The shopkeepers were threatened until they
removed the posters.
The PVV only participates in the local elections in Den Haag and Almere, and the party immediately
stated that these supporters do not represent the party in any way. Besides, this news item
appeared only in De Telegraaf, the most sensationalist newspaper of the country.
Still, if De Telegraaf, which has a solidly right-wing reputation, is willing to publish anti-Wilders
pieces (or, at the very least, pieces that could be construed as anti-PVV) there might be hope.
Will De Telegraaf stand behind the VVD, as it usually does, and thus attack the PVV?
(Source: Telegraaf)

Speaking about the PVV, it firmly has the local elections in its grip, despite competing for
only two councils. Safety and immigration have become the main themes, and CDA and VVD, especially,
are taking their cues from Wilders in a desperate attempt to stop the electoral tide.
Here’s to hoping they come to their senses after the local elections and see that it’s
to their advantage to simply change the subject to the crisis. The left-wing parties are more
than willing to help, and a nice economic discussion might ensue in which Wilders doesn’t
have a lot to say, stuck as he is between left and right.
(Source: Trouw)

Finally, TNS NIPO has released a poll that asks the Dutch for their prime minister preferences.
The question was whether people have confidence or no confidence in the mentioned candidates.

First, a note. Confidence in a certain party leader as prime minister is highly polarised. For
instance, pretty much all right-wing voters will have no confidence in virtually every left-wing
candidate, and vice versa. In addition every candidate will have detractors in his own block.
That’s why the no-confidence scores are far higher than the confidence scores.

Still, there’s a clear trend. The first four positions are taken by left-wingers;
we find the first right-winger only on place five.

Pechtold (D66) 35/41

Bos (PvdA) 34/40

Cohen (PvdA) 32/49

Halsema (GL) 29/52

Opstelten (VVD) 28/47
It’s totally unclear to me why former Rotterdam mayor
and current VVD chairman Opstelten is mentioned in this poll. He has never figured as a
prime minister candidate. Either the creators of the poll know a lot we don’t, or
they’re just making up nice-sounding candidates as they go.

Rutte (VVD) 25/53

Balkenende (CDA) 25/58

Eurlings (CDA) 24/54

Rouvoet (CU) 21/61

Verhagen (CDA) 20/60

Wilders (PVV) 18/71

Kant (SP) 16/64

Verdonk (ToN) 10/78

D66 party leader Pechtold will be glad. He is the most centrist candidate right now, with the
CDA thrown into confusion, and it might even be that he appeals to a few right-wing voters.

At least Balkenende finishes before his internal competitor Eurlings. That’s something.
The rest of the poll is very bleak, with Bos clearly being far more popular.

This is the political blog of Peter-Paul Koch, mobile platform strategist, consultant, and trainer,
in Amsterdam. It’s a hobby blog where he follows Dutch politics for the benefit of those twelve
foreigners that are interested in such matters, as well as his Dutch readers.

Comments
(closed)

First off, thanks for writing these posts. Even as a Dutchman, I get a lot out of them with regards to Dutch politics.

Secondly, I hope you're right about the PVV and I definitely agree that switching the debate to economics will destroy Wilders' chances in the election, as people start to see that he doesn't really have a clue about running this country.

But I have never been more interested in politics as I am right now. It's gonna be a very interesting year. Let's hope we come out of it with a positive vibe.