4 Answers
4

Given the range of hands you are assigning him, I don't think you can profitably call preflop. You should probably fold, or possibly 3bet if you think he will make the mistake of folding too much (either immediately or to a flop continuation bet). But I think folding is the best play, exploiting the fact that he is too tight with his open raises.

As played, the turn is close between calling and raising. Some of the tighter players will throw away AQ or AK here if you raise, in which case raising is awful. If you think his range for shoving is AA, JJ, 99, and (maybe?) AJ, with no bluffs, then you have a clear fold. He could also have 33, though I'd discount that possibility a good amount given the read you provided.

The turn raise is a bit marginal because the only worse hands that are willing to call it are A♣Q♥ or A♣K♥ (ignoring the suits, of course). Once he shoves there are very few combos that beat us but it is also quite unlikely that this player will shove light or shove many hands that we beat for value, so I like the fold.

I think the ideal line is to flat the turn with the intention of flatting most rivers to capitalize on when he might triple-barrel (not very often) and when he has an Ace or Jack and can't fold.

Not sure so I'll mention it... Have you considered the possibility of A9x and J9x are in his range? Obviously, 99 & 33 are there as well.
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Toby Booth♦Jul 30 '12 at 17:36

@TobyBooth You're right. I also think that sets are easily in his range and, given how he plays, he surely represents pocket nines or threes. I guess we'll never know...
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Radu Murzea♦Jul 31 '12 at 16:57

@TobyBooth I didn't consider J9x at all because it's very unlikely he opens it preflop. He might open A9s (probably not A9o) but I think it's more likely he limps suited aces as well (except for ATs+). I got him to show me his hand, so I do know.
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SilversanaAug 1 '12 at 2:09

IMO, playing in the hero's shoes, I would have raised on the flop with top pair, A kicker. Its obvious he has something on the flop, a raise would find out if he is serious and how serious.
Does he slow play a set or over pair here? Ever??

To me he's got A-A because I would slow play my sets here with no flush or straight opportunities and his push on the turn. Betting $25 into a $39 pot on the turn... He's got something. I just don't see a set pre-turn. Maybe he has the same hand as well.

Raising the flop gets me owned when he has better, and limits the value I can get from worse because he'll fold TT, and any J with a weak kicker. I'm not sure if he would slow play a set here. If he has a pair and checks it wouldn't be a slow-play, it would be for pot control. There's only one combo of AA and he could certainly have it, but there are bigger portions of his range that are more likely to show up.
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SilversanaAug 1 '12 at 16:28

you got owned on the turn. without a raise, you don't know where you stand. with AJ in position to a tight player? you think he bet BBx4 with pocket 3's or pocket 9's or j's? I smell A-9 off.
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SnakeAug 2 '12 at 6:43

4x raises (and larger) preflop are VERY common at $1/$2 live (as opposed to online). If I made a mistake, it was raising the turn because it's too thin. Just because a flop raise makes the hand "easy" to play doesn't mean it's the best play. Flatting flop is more +EV because it keeps bluffs in and keeps him value betting a wider range of worse made hands as well. It may put me in some tougher spots along the way, but that's OK because it's the most profitable line at that point.
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SilversanaAug 2 '12 at 14:53

As played, fist pump and snap call his shove. I'm not sure what else you could be hoping for flatting his raise from the cutoff with AJ. Your hand is huge on the turn. He could easily be c-betting the flop with Ax, then thinking he hit gin on the turn. If he's got trips, so be it. Go puke in the bathroom then reload. This turn fold is scared money, unless there's some serious history with him leading to a soul read.

He's tight passive...he's never ever jamming Ax here unless he has two pair. The only two pair combo that makes sense is A9, and I'm not even sure if he opens that pre (I think he'd limp it most likely).
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SilversanaAug 3 '12 at 18:51