No Surrender: Thirty-Years Fighting World War II and Bayes Theorem

I just finished reading the book "No Surrender: My Thirty Year War" by Hiroo Onoda, -- the last known Japanese officer to be fighting World War II. Mr Onoda, born in 1922 (age 90 at this writing), is a former Imperial Japanese Army intelligence officer who fought in the Phillipines until his former commander traveled from Japan to Lubang Island and personally issued orders relieving him of duty in 1974.

Lt Onoda's determination is understandable: he was trained in guerilla warfare. He received written and oral military orders and on December 26, 1944 was sent to fight for the Empire on Lubang Island in the Philippines. An intelligence operative, he persisted until his commanding officer personally relieved him of duty.

To me, there are two interesting questions:

1. How did Mr Onoda interpret events during the 30 years? Lt Onoda had access to occasional newspapers and radio broadcasts from 1944 to 1974. However, being on a fairly remote island, he interpreted these as localized fabrications to trick him into surrendering.

Occasional attempts at contact by his family members visiting the island started to "thaw" his "frozen" beliefs. Kind of a psychological "intervention" it seems.

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