5th Annual Awards Daily Simulated Oscar® Ballot

Rob Y has once again performed the enormous task of organizing all 282 eligible films of 2012 into a simulated Oscar ballot so that Awards Daily readers can feel what it’s like to be a simulated Academy member.

This is, of course, the nominations phase and we’re also simulating this year’s sense of accelerated desperate urgency by setting a tight deadline — you must complete your ballot by Saturday at midnight (PT). Rob’s made things easy by making every contender clickable on drop-down menus, so the process should be intuitive and self-explanatory. If you have second thoughts you can make changes and recast your ballot, but naturally only your last ballot counts.

NOTE: Here’s one way this annual ballot experiment differs from how the Academy runs things. We encourage you AD voters to share your picks with us publicly. You’re invited to do so, after the cut. I wonder if the Oscars would honor winners any differently if more Academy members were asked to share their choices.

CultureTilt

Bryce Forestieri

I love that ya’ll are also doing the insane deadline!
Yup, most everyone including me, in the US at least, will NOT have seen ZERO DARK THIRTY which goes wide January. Even less so overseas I bet. Yet I bet it’s one of films with more nominations in this simulation; in true Academy fashion <3

I will have missed for sure: Zero Dark Thirty, Tabu, Holy Motors, On the Road

Kholby

Bryce, we usually have another predictions contest where you can guess what the Academy will do. You can vote however you like but most readers use this ballot opportunity to vote with their heart, to choose the movies each of us personally loves “best”

Travis

Otis Bryant

Just have a few questions about the voting procedure, how the Academy does it. Here’s the procedure as I understand it:

Voting members choose their top five choices for best picture. All ballots are put into piles according to #1 votes. A magic number is obtained by taking the total number of ballots and dividing by 11 (the total number of slots available plus 1); the resulting quotient is then round up. At this point, all movies with this number are best picture nominees automatically. This year about 5856 ballots were sent out this year so that magic number would be 533.

Then there are two procedures that occur. The one that always seems to occur first, based on my readings, is the surplus redistribution, Films that received 10% more than necessary have their ballots redistributed to their 2nd choice and so on down. In this case, the number, I believe, that would trigger this would be 587. If a movie has, say, 786 votes, then those ballots would be worth a value of .25 ((786-587)/786). So then the #1 films in play will receive those ballots at that value, with no rounding. So if a movie that didn’t obtain the number has only 490 and received only just one of those ballots, it would have a new result of just 490.25.

Then the other procedure is the under-1% elimination, where those films with less than 1% of the vote (in this case, 59) are eliminated and their ballots redistributed at full value. After this, all films with 5% of the #1 votes (293) will be the final best picture nominees.

So, assuming that my understanding of the procedure is, so far, accurate:

– Let’s say that a number of the surplus redistribution ballots went to a film that ends up being eliminated during the under-1% elimination. Do those same ballots get redistributed again and at the same value?
– After surplus redistribution, let’s say that a film now has a score of 58.04. Since it technically needs 59, that film would, indeed, be eliminated, correct?

Any mistakes in categorizing the screenplays is all on me. I’m the guy who tried to sort them out. I relied on IMDb a lot, looking for “based on” credits.

The Sessions doesn’t have a clue like that, but there was this article in Variety that told me The Sessions was adapted.

That’s my only source of reference. If that’s wrong, we’ll see if Rob change it. And if there’s anything else that looks out of place, please let us know right away so we can get the screenplays designated into the proper category.

I wonder since The Sessions is a true story if there were sources like articles or a memoir where the screenwriter turned for details?

moviewatcher

Please, please extend the deadline. I was one of the first 200 people too see The Master in my country because I went to a film festival where it showed, but those other poor souls will have to wait until early February to see it. I haven’t even seen Les Mis, ZD30 Django or Lincoln yet (will get to see them all in January). It’s horrible living outside of the US, cause all Oscar movies come out in January/february so they get caught up in the oscar buzz…

Tero Heikkinen

As I will not be able to vote for films that come out this year here (like ZDT), I will compensate that by voting films that I saw in 2011 (like Oslo, August 31st), so I will just use this list of eligibility offered here. Solved.

Getting ready for Oscars!!! Out of the biggies I’ve seen so far include Life of Pi, The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Silver Linings Playbook, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Amour, The Impossible, Holy Motors, Argo, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Moonrise Kingdom, The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, Looper and many others… So, I think I have enough to vote from.

PJ

Now that’s an interesting simulation. I voted for my favorite even in categories where I did not originally plan on. The whole, only one choice counts really twisted my thinking a bit. Still spread the wealth to movies I liked but if only one choice counts, I am using that choice to make sure my fav gets mentioned.

Casey

SallyinChicago

Bryce, I think we can dispense with the name calling. I was expressing an opinion after leaving the movie….Depending on how many slots are allocated, if it’s a short list (5-7) I don’t think Django will get a nomination.

AJ

Looks like the new deadline will prevent the suggestion I made last year to randomly and proportionately assign ballots to an Academy branch Still, I look forward to submitting to and reviewing this simulation. Thanks to the Awards Daily team for doing this.

The Japanese Viewer

I personally would give a serious thought to bribing the Oscars xD for a meaningful and longer period of a meet-and-greet session with the nominees in both Best Lead Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories of his choice. : )

Al Robinson

I agree with Sasha. There IS no way that Django Unchained can win the Best Picture prize at the Academy Awards. It has a good chance of getting nominated, but it is WAY too violent, and the N-word is used a LOT!!

The safest pics for BP are Argo, Lincoln, or Zero Dark Thirty. Les Miserable will split many votes. The Master was too confusing for some. Looper will suffer the safe fate as Drive in 2011.

Still, with only Zero Dark Thirty left for me to see, I still pick Life of Pi myself.

Tero Heikkinen

Sasha Stone

Has nothing to do with my not liking Django but one lady I know on Twitter said she walked out, another said it put her back out it upset her so much: slave getting torn apart by dogs? Yeah, not Best Picture material.

Bryce Forestieri

Here’s how I voted. Choices did limit me tho. Was Arnold’s Wuthering Heights a 2011 release in the US? I wanted to vote for it on cinematography…anyways having not seen ZDT, Tabu, Holy Motors, On the Road, I tried to spread love as much as I could:

christiannnw

I’m not going to go all out and list all my choices, but instead list some of my defiant choices. I do think they’re seriously worth considering:

1) Included “Anna Karenina” for Editing, Cinematography, and Adapted Screenplay.
2) Chose Jude Law as first choice in “Anna Karenina” as Best Supporting Actor.
3) Chose Isabelle Huppert as first choice in “Amour” as Best Supporting Actress.
4) Included Michelle Williams in “Take This Waltz” for Best Actress.
5) Included Kylie Minogue in “Holly Motors” for Best Supporting Actress.

Checko

The Movies I Really wanted to include aren’t eligibles, Oscar really hates indies and foreign films.

I Watched 257 films last year but the only films I haven’t seen and could have a big show up in my nominations if I did: The Master, Keep the Lights On, Middle of Nowhere, How to Survive a Plague & Zero Dark Thirty

Also films I Haven’t seen and I really couldn’t care less: The Hobbit & Les Miserables

My weird list (I really feel like a WGA member lol)

BEST PICTURE
1. The Perks of Being a Wallflower
2. Holy Motors
3. Beasts of the Southern Wild
4. Rust & Bone
5. The Imposter

Linc4jess

Oh, I know that “Django Unchained” might get a nod for BP but will never get close to being the best picture with all the controversy relating to the narrative of the film but to me it is an excellent flick with four powerful performances in Waltz, DiCaprio, Jackson and Foxx and deserves to be on my list as one of the top three films of the year the other two being “Lincoln” and “Argo”. I am thinking people walked out of “Les Miserables” as well or perhaps wanted to. I know some walked out of “The Master” yet it is talked as best picture material. Anyway, a heck of a job by Tarantino. I am still pulling for “Lincoln” to take it all and it probably will.

Andrew

This is a really interesting process. As I was completing it, I was tempted to vote for films I have not seen such as Zero Dark Thirty or Lincoln, just because I should. It wouldnt surprise me if this happens alot with AMPAS voters

Steven, we’re using the official list of 282 eligible films the Academy announced on Dec 14. Usually release date snafus are responsible for a movie being deemed ineligible. Method and venue of release are factors too. Sorry about that!

Christopher

Yashar

Do Cloud Atlas and Arbitrage have any chance for a BP nom? Along with TDKR, they are the only ones from first 2 selections that I have seen and I don’t believe it would be right to vote before seeing the rest of heavy hitters.

Christophe

@Paddy
Absolutely right! We’re supposed to mimick their mind process but using our own taste and preferences. I am completely clueless abt who they will choose, so I cautiously avoid all the predicting games but I sure love to share my own opinion.

If you choose to do it that way, a useful thought experiment would be to try to personalize it.

Ask yourself this. What if you were to, “pretend I’m my family at Thanksgiving” voting for the Oscars? Unless your family are pod people, you see that’s an impossible challenge, right? Because you know that the members of your family don’t think alike.

Speaking for myself, without naming names, there are some members of the Academy whose heads I do not want to be inside.

But if you decide to approach the ballot by pretending you’re part of the Academy, it might be interesting to pretend you’re a particular member, yes? Be Sean Penn. Be David Fincher. Be Carol Channing. Be John Malkovich.

That said, if you all try to get inside the head of Jennifer Lawrence, I’m gonna be so disappointed in you.

Christopher

Huh. That’s odd. I remember seeing Cosmopolis at the Landmark in L.A sometime in August. I would have thought that would have made it eligible for the Oscars. I wonder if it could have been omitted by accident.

Christophe

Let me be clear though. No, you’re not “supposed to pretend” anything. You’re not supposed to do anything. Feel free to do what you like.

What would be most interesting to me, is if we all vote purely to reflect our own individual tastes. That’s what the Academy members do, we hope.

Do you see how it would be weird if an individual member of the Academy said to herself, “I’ll try to vote like I think the Academy will vote.”

Yikes. No, Cher, no. Please don’t do that.

I’d like to see how Awards Daily readers think. I’d like to see a pure result. So when the actual nominations are announced on Jan 10th, it will be more interesting to see where we AGREE with the AMPAS and where we DISAGREE.

We have other opportunities to guess what the Oscars might do. This ballot isn’t really meant for that.

Mike

It’s odd to me that someone would show The Perks of Being a Wallflower a lot of love without nominating Logan Lerman. He is, IMO, the heart and soul of the film and he’s absolutely fantastic. A shame he’s not getting more attention. I will be putting him at #1 on my ballot.

Jim

I LOVE that I’m seeing other people voting for Rebel Wilson in Pitch Perfect and Gina Gershon in Killer Joe. That was the toughest category for me, but I included them, Jennifer Ehle, Amy Adams, and the Hathaway. Broke my heart a little to leave out Emily Blunt and Ann Dowd. Might not have been a wonderful year for lead actress roles, but lots of women did do really extraordinary work.

keifer

keifer

RYAN: “What would be most interesting to me, is if we all vote purely to reflect our own individual tastes.”

Exactly my sentiments.

That’s why Ryan, I voted in AD’s poll this year for Charlotte Rampling as Best Actress in “The Eye of the Storm”. It’s a great role . . . complex and demanding. And the actress has to play the character at different points in her life. Rampling delivers in spades, giving a great performance. I hope AMPAS pays attention to this great actress this year by nominating her as Best Actress.

Just to be clear, Quentin is talking about real violence against animals onscreen (not just onscreen animal violence, especially considering that Dr. Schultz shoots a horse in the beginning of Django Unchained). Most American filmmakers feel the same way.

rufussondheim

Saw Django Unchained today, it’s clearly one of the best directed, best performed, and has some stunningly good dialogue and set pieces. But when trying to deconstruct the institution of slavery, it’s probably best that you not make up facts just because you need a plot point. Slavery was inhumane enough so his invention of “mandingo fighting” is rather unsettling. And the film suffers significantly as a result.

And, all of those slaves that were supposedly set free along the way, well, most will be captured and probably severely punished or even killed because of their “crimes” of which they will surely be convicted. And this includes Django and Broomhilda, while they had their bills of sale, they didn’t have papers declaring their free status. So back to the slave pens for them. I know this is a small point, but, again, if Tarantino wants to use slavery as a plot point, he should get his facts right.

(On a side note, if you are into what Tarantino does well – tightly directed, suspenseful setpieces with sparkingling dialogue and great performances – you should really see Killer Joe, as Killer Joe does them better than Django does)

Tero Heikkinen

rufussondheim

No, PJ, he did not, and if you can’t see the difference immediately then I am not sure I can explain it to you. You see, the killing of Hitler was the end result. Nothing was manufactured about Hitler’s treatment of the Jews in Basterds. The same can’t be said in Django Unchained.

And, all of those slaves that were supposedly set free along the way, well, most will be captured and probably severely punished or even killed because of their “crimes” of which they will surely be convicted. And this includes Django and Broomhilda, while they had their bills of sale, they didn’t have papers declaring their free status. So back to the slave pens for them. I know this is a small point, but, again, if Tarantino wants to use slavery as a plot point, he should get his facts right.

(DJANGO SPOILERS)But Django was armed and a quick draw. And besides they make it because they’re John Shaft’s great grandparents. And Shultz pointed out the North Star to the guys in the beginning so they had a fighting chance.

Andrew

And, all of those slaves that were supposedly set free along the way, well, most will be captured and probably severely punished or even killed because of their “crimes” of which they will surely be convicted. And this includes Django and Broomhilda, while they had their bills of sale, they didn’t have papers declaring their free status.

If we want to extrapolate to predict what might happen after the end credits, then based on the preceding hour I’m going to assume Django proceeds to kill every white person in the South. Civil War, huh, yeah? What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Uh-huh, Say it again. Emancipation Proclamation? Moot. This rewrite of history also serves as the quickest way to screw Lincoln’s chances for an Oscar 150 years in the future. Checkmate, Mr Spielberg.

MJS

Tero Heikkinen

steve50

Tarantino’s movies are fantasies, so I don’t get very excited about historical inaccuracies. Nobody will ever mistake Django for a historical document any more than they would Inglorious Basterds. He makes up a world, picks a dangerous line to walk, and plays “wouldn’t it be cool if…”

IB was great, Django was…OK. But I wouldn’t grade either for historical value, anymore than I would the genres on which he bases his films. Strictly pop fiction.

rufussondheim

Steve, I understand what you’re saying. It doesn’t make Django a bad film by any stretch, I enjoyed it quite a bit (at least until it got too long) but the taking of liberties here damaged the film for me. I think Tarantino could have gotten to the same point with more effective plot events that weren’t manufactured. What if Broomhilde was pregnant with Candie’s child, for example?

Inglorious Basterds is indeed the better film, and it’s also more grounded in reality, which makes the “fantasy” aspect more effective.

Regarding your claim that Django and Broomhilda didn’t have their freedom papers: It is made clear by a line of dialog spoken by Calvin Candie that Broomhilda’s freedom papers are included in the documents he gives to Schultz, and while we never actually see Django’s freedom papers given to him, Schultz agreed to give Django his freedom after catching the Brittle brothers so its easy to assume Schultz went ahead and got that together for him following their trip to Big Daddy’s plantation. So I would have to respectfully disagree that they were without freedom papers at the end of the film.

Christophe

This voting process is so dumb! No wonder oscar voters don’t fill their ballots completely, it becomes pointless to list 5 choices when you know only one of them will get the vote and you can’t figure out which one until the noms are revealed.

I understand why the preferential system is necessary to determine the BP Winner based on a majority of votes (I even think it should be extended to every category or at least the main ones), but during the nominations process it makes things very very frustrating when you’ve got several movies/performances you like equally and you’ve got no idea how to rank them.

If the Academy wants to encourage voters to list 5 entries per category during the nomination process, they should switch to a BFCA-like system (5 choices = 5 votes) or a preferential points system (1st choice = 5 points, 2nd choice = 4 points,…, 5th choice = 1 point).

END OF RANT

james d

If this had really been like voting in the Academy, it would have been much, much harder to do, and much less well thought out. Congratulations everyone for, once again, proving this is the best movie blog on earth.

@Nic Cage If you weren’t saying something by asking I’d answer. But I’ve said it a million times around here. I like the movies I like. I watch all of them when I can. If you think that people are supposed to like a certain film because of a certain amount of sophistication then I’m going to guess that you’re the young one who is still limited by what other people think of you. You can click on my name if you want to see which movies I’ve seen this year and what order I place them in and why. Otherwise, the catchphrase from ARGO.

Daveylo

Christophe

@antoinette
“I’m a really old fangirl” or so says your blog
that doesn’t help much, I’ve been saying I’m really old since I turned 20 ’cause I really can’t wrap my mind around that aging thing. I used to believe young people and old people were like two different races, now I’m starting to understand there’s actually a link between the two groups and young people are simply future old people, that just scares me…

rufussondheim

I don’t see eye to eye with Antoinette on many things, but I think she is one of the rare people here who loves what she loves, is willing to state what she loves and can convincingly defend it.

Others, they claim love for The Master and Lincoln and you ask them why and all you get is gobbledygook. Maybe they loved those films, maybe they love those films because they are supposed to, I don’t know, but, golly, can you at least explain why in a way that’s not filled with cliche and propoganda?

Supporting Actor
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
2. John Goodman – Argo
3. James Badge Dale – Flight (His work in this tiny role was great. I wish there had been more of him on there, and he was in serious consideration. For this reason, I’m giving it to him.)
4. Javier Bardem – Skyfall
5. Alan Arkin – Argo

rufussondheim

Just saw ZDT today. Fantastic. Also I’m realizing that it’s possible NONE of my supporting choices will get nominated. That’s life, eh? Oscar is coalescing around really mediocre performances this year in those two categories.

Mike

So many movies I have yet to see. I don’t understand why The Sound of My Voice wouldn’t be eligible. Was going to put Brit Marling for Best Supporting Actress. I was also going to nominate The Woman in Black for Cinematography but that wasn’t on the list either.

Anyway, here are my picks.

Best Picture

The Perks of Being a Wallflower
The Hunger Games
Friends With Kids
Your Sister’s Sister
Magic Mike

Chris L.

Chris L.

Chris L.

Thanks for this fun balloting feature. My picks were heavy on Moonrise Kingdom, The Deep Blue Sea and The Master. They would also have included The Kid with a Bike and Once Upon a Time in Anatolia if the Academy’s bizarre logic had permitted. Since neither was nominated for foreign film last year, nor appeared on demand before theatrical release, there’s no good reason to rule them out.

But we know how too much subtitled excellence gives them headaches. (Ask Romania.)

Rob Y

Zizo Hawa

Christophe

@Rob y
Thx! I was actually worried about mispelling so it’s good to know you’re paying attention to that. I reread my ballot several times but i still have a nagging doubt abt matching the actor’s name with the wrong movie… I guess it’s just paranoia!
have fun I’m sure somehow you kinda enjoy it you geek

Adam

david leary

I filled out my ballot can’t believe nobody is talking about the performance of juno temple in little birds I included her in my picks for best actress also included Kay panabaker and Kate bosworth for little birds in the supporting actress category hope there is more support for juno temple out there. what do you think

rufussondheim

I thought Juno Temple was the weak link in Killer Joe. I could never get a handle on her, was she mentally ill? was she a strong woman slowly taking control of her life? I could never figure it out. By the end, I didn’t know who to blame, the writer? the director? the editor? the actress? Whatever. It was a good film, could have been a great film.

Christophe

Alfredo

Gah! I finally got a chance to see Django last night…I loved it! I get that it’s not a film for everyone – QTs films rarely are. Given the chance I would nominate it for BP, BD, BA, BSA: DiCaprio, and Best cameo by a penis…

I thought Juno Temple was excellent in Killer Joe. I loved the ambiguity of her character. I think the idea is that even she’s not sure of whom she is. An adolescent in a deeply troubled environment – she’s bound to be all sorts of things inside her head, and willing to try to be even more.

John

Picture = Lincoln, The Avengers, Skyfall, Silver Linings Playbook, The Hunger Games
(hey, Zero Dark Thirty, if you’d have come out here in middle America, I’d have gone to see you. I don’t know what moron thinks that the American masses wouldn’t want to see a movie about the killing of Osama bin Laden. Also, I was disappointed that I couldn’t nominate HEADHUNTERS, I thought it came out this year, ah well)

Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Richard Gere, Jason Segel (Jeff Who Lives at Home), Bradley Cooper, Liam Neeson (The Grey)
(Ben Affleck was close for ARGO, don’t see why he’s not getting pushed harder in this category)
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Hunger Games), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Elizabeth Banks (Man on a Ledge), Kelly MAcDonald (Brave)
(quite an achievement when you give the TWO best performances of the year in a category! Sorry Jessica Chastain, no one made your movie available! I realize the Elizabeth Banks thing is out there, but here was a smart, capable competent heroine and if the movie didn’t quite work it sure wasn’t her fault, plus she acted on a ledge 200 feet off the ground which not everyone could do. Loved Princess Merida, but I have animated actor bias, so I’m loathe to nominate people for just voice acting, maybe that’s wrong)
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Scarlett Johansen (The Avengers), Emily Blunt (looper), Scareltt Johansen (Hitchcock), Eva Green (Dark Shadows)
(good year for action heroines and Scarlett Johansen, I don’t know why Blunt registered so strongly with me in a movie I really didn’t get into but I don’t seem to be the only one, I sat thru Dark Shadows going “who is that woman, she’s great!” but I guess no one else did)
Supporting Actor: Frank Grillo (The Grey), MacConnaughhey (magic Mike), Sam Jackson (Django), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), James Spader (Lincoln)
(Frank Grillo had the most interesting character arc in a movie this year, but even fans of THE GREY aren’t pushing him. What’s up with that?)
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, 21 Jump Street, Hunger Games, Argo
Original Screenplay: Safety not Guaranteed, Jeff Who Lives at Home, Arbitrage, Sinister, Looper
(sorry, haven’t seen FLIGHT)
Cinematography: Skyfall, The Grey, Jack Reacher, The Hunger Games, Lincoln
Editing: The Avengers, The Hunger Games, Skyfall, Silver Linings Playbook, Argo
(we didn’t vote for Art Direction, but I think DREDD should be nominated for creating a futuristic, mile-high housing project that was both recognizable and futuristic, while keeping the geography making since, which is essential for this sort of movie)