Historically, a candidate that is surging sees a lag in poll numbers of a couple of days because of the way polls are conducted. Even a tracking poll will have a slight lag for similar reasons.

Other polls released in the past few days show Fred in a slightly worse position. But if you take out the highs and lows while averaging Fred’s support it would appear that Thompson is virtually tied for third with Romney with Fred’s numbers going up, Huckabees going down, and McCain staying pretty much the same (about a 6 point lead over Huckabee).

Romney took one look at this situation and headed for Nevada. Declaring McCain the winner in South Carolina, Mitt will race around Nevada until the Saturday Caucuses, trying to build on his narrow lead over McCain in that state.

Meanwhile, Fred is still splitting the anti-McCain vote in South Carolina three ways and is desperately trying to peel supporters away from Huckabee.

It’s working. But is it working fast enough for Fred to win in South Carolina?

The answer is almost certainly no. Another week and who knows? But the primary is 48 hours away and I don’t think he can cut into McCain’s lead enough to overtake him. The Arizona senator has what Zogby calls a “very stable” lead. It would be the upset of the campaign season if Fred were to beat him.

I do think, however, that a strong second place is within Thompson’s grasp. Huckabee is changing his positions on issues almost every news cycle now, trying to stop the bleeding. What I’m sure he sees in his own polls is Fred’s surge and the fact that being hammered on immigration and taxes is playing very well for Fred in the state.

And cheer up, Fredheads. I think a second place for Thompson means a ticket to Florida and probably Super Tuesday. Why should Fred drop out when nothing has been decided and he has proven he can come back? There’s another debate before the Florida primary and lord knows what Fred will come up with for that one. Probably has the rest of them wondering too.

I predict Fred will get into the low 20’s on primary day. Considering he was single digits in South Carolina earlier this month, that would be a stupendous comeback. And in this, the wackiest primary season in a while, none of the top 5 candidates can really be consigned to the dustbin of history quite yet.

UPDATE

Allah links the Quin Hillyer fantasy piece in American Spectator and wonders what stage of the grief process he’s in over the imminent demise of Fred’s candidacy.

Mitt Romney’s win in the Michigan Republican primary on Tuesday not only revived the former Massachu…

2

zwhite Said:
1:18 pm

Fred deserves credit for knocking Huck down a few notches, and maybe that’s his ticket out of SC. FL is tough cuz it’s mostly not a southern state.

+Fred scenario: He surges and takes 2nd in SC. Huck is big loser in expectations game and his supporters switch to Fred. Fred looks stronger and picks up previous doubters, hawks, and anti-McCain and anti-Flip voters. McCain, Flip, and Rudy split the ‘moderate’ vote in FL; Fred surges there and WINS THE GALAXY IS STUNNED! THE MSM IS REELING! FRED has the big MO for Typhoon Tuesday. Odds… 50:1

Fred’s on financial life support less than 2 weeks from Florida, 3 weeks from the big kahuna. How does he raise millions in two weeks? How does he produce ads and buy air time? How does he staff up in time? He doesn’t have Huckabee’s churches.

The best thing he has going for him is the poverty of all the non-Mitt candidates. Only Mitt the Flip has deep pockets right now. So maybe the air war won’t matter so much, maybe it’ll be all about free media. In other words, your best hope may be the MSM.

4

Rick Moran Said:
2:14 pm

Fred went into South Carolina with a $1 million war chest. That’s three times what McCain has to spend and twice what Huckabee has.

A strong second in SC probably won’t help fundraising much but he will probably have enough to hit the panhandle with a lot of ads. That’s where most of his support is and it might be enough to get him into second again – perhaps even better if Huckabee drops out after SC.

It is a very, very long shot. But McCain has no money going into Super Tuesday either and he’s ahead in a lot of those polls. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Have some faith, Rick. MKH has already called SC for Fred; in fact, she did that just after the networks called Michigan for Romney. Besides, McCain always finds a way to lose SC.

Seriously, this is a last-man-standing match, and given the trends, I don’t see how Huckabee remains standing much longer. A strong second, especially if it’s ahead of Huckabee, will serve Thompson quite nicely.

8

Rob Said:
2:47 pm

I won’t sell my soul for a Fred win (previous buyer with an even better deal), but my wife and I did contribute again and doubled our previous contribution. For us this approaches a food on the table deal, so we ain’t kidding about wanting Fred in the White House.

It is obvious that this has become a long march, not a blitz – for all the bunching up of primaries that has occured. I encourage Fred supporters to contribute AGAIN (and again and again).

I think that it is rather cool that Fred is managing a pay-as-you-go campaign. Maybe we could model Federal Spending that way? B-) Frederal. Heh…

Are we fooling ourselves with wishful thinking or do you have faith in your own analysis?

I’d put Fred’s odds of finishing 1st at 20-1. Finishing second at 3-1. And third at 2-1.

RM

10

cheeseball Said:
3:12 pm

I’m one of those Evangelicals that everybody says in rooting for Huckabee…NOT! That guy is no conservative, and I think most conservatives see that pretty clearly. I have been for Fred! since I first heard he might run. I hope he does well in SC.

The biggest help Fred! could get would be an endorsement from El-Rushbo and Rush keeps saying he doesn’t endorse candidates in primary elections. I would hate to see Fred’s campaign go down in flames while Rush whistles on the sidelines.

Rick:
Well, it’s probably your influence, but I found myself making the case for Fred while talking politics with a fellow Dem the other day. McCain doesn’t gel with the conservatives, Mitt will turn off a significant portion of evangelicals in the general, Giuliani’s a Democrat on social issues and has an alarming tendency to drop the more he campaigns. And of course Huckabee’s a disgrace. The only guy not actively hated by some significant portion of the GOP is Fred. And he has the attraction of perhaps actually believing what he says. That’d be a novelty.

12

The Commander Guy Said:
4:05 pm

Iâ€™d put Fredâ€™s odds of finishing 1st at 20-1. Finishing second at 3-1. And third at 2-1.

Well said. Now or Never.

I definitely think he will improve on his 1% showing in NH and 4% showing in MI.

With Huck out telling it like it is, I don’t think he can pull it out in SC. I’d put his odds at not falling asleep on the stump fairly high however…..just saying it can’t long before he reverts back to sleep mode.

13

Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC Said:
4:36 pm

Wow, is that the same Zogby who overestimated Ind/Dem turnout by 15% and the final numbers by 10%?

That Zogby? Oh yeah, let’s listen to HIM.

Rasmussen has SC almost within the margin of error for all 4 candidates.

20-1 to win? If gambling on this wouldn’t make me ineligible to vote in Wisconsin’s primary, I’d take a flyer on that. I’d put more on place though.

15

Dennis Said:
6:11 pm

You say in one breath that the polls lag by a couple of days. Fred has been building momentum and it is starting to show in the polls. Then, you say he has no chance of winning SC. We’ll see. My prediction is Thompson 28 – McCain 25 – Romney 19 – Huckabee 14 – Guliani 8 – Paul 6. Paul and Guliani could flip flop, but I see Thompson suprising you all.

Dennis

16

brian williams Said:
6:53 pm

Fred is the man we NEED SC!

17

Dave Gordon Said:
10:51 pm

I don’t know if the question is whether or not Fred survives SC, but it’s more of a question of how long he can stay in the race and how much money he can raise after SC.

If this becomes a marathon (and I think it will go to convention unsettled), he’s better off than the other candidates because as I think the more he gets his message out, the better off he is. I think if he loses in SC, he plays “rope a dope” for the next few months and maybe takes a couple small states, but just manages to stay alive to get media coverage. I just don’t see a lot of anti-Fred out there as I do with the other four candidates (some more than others). His style his built for the long-run.

I’m a FredHead, so maybe I’m too optimistic, but that’s how I see it now. Then again, I don’t think he’ll do as poorly as predicted on Saturday.