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Pittsburgh Pirates

With the MLB draft coming up in June, Curveball writers got to thinking about the differences between the 3 major US sporting drafts, baseball, football and basketball. The most obvious differences are the size, ranging from the smallest (the NBA at 2 rounds) to the largest (MLB at 40 rounds).

Specifically I was wondering what percentage of draftees in such a mammoth undertaking as the MLB draft actually make it to the majors? (Around 1 in 6 as it happens). These odds are actually surprisingly high for players drafted on the first round (around 81.1% between 2002 and 2006 in a study conducted by Baseball America). Unsurprisingly these figures drop round by round, petering out at a paltry 5.1% of players drafted after the 21st round making it to the show. But how effective are these players who make the majors and what proportion of them are significant major league contributors?

GRADUATION AND TENURE RATES THROUGH THE YEARS

MLB%

3YRS%

Round

87-91

92-96

97-01

02-06

87-91

92-96

97-01

02-06

1

78.0%

70.6%

61.6%

81.1%

50.4%

42.6%

32.2%

43.9%

1st supp

60.0%

52.8%

49.3%

55.0%

33.3%

13.9%

17.3%

15.0%

2

50.0%

47.5%

52.8%

50.7%

14.7%

15.1%

21.8%

19.1%

3-5

35.2%

32.8%

34.0%

35.2%

13.7%

9.9%

14.1%

6.8%

6-10

27.4%

20.4%

21.6%

19.9%

11.3%

6.0%

7.1%

5.1%

11-20

16.1%

13.9%

10.9%

13.2%

5.9%

3.1%

4.2%

2.5%

21+

7.2%

8.3%

7.1%

5.1%

2.2%

2.4%

1.6%

0.9%

Total

18.3%

17.1%

17.2%

17.4%

7.3%

5.5%

6.4%

4.9%

I decided to look at the first round of 5 drafts (2006-2010) and try and find answers to a few basic questions; are certain teams drafting more successfully? What proportion of first round picks become successful major leaguers.

Immediately this goal hit major obstacles. Although smaller than I would like, I chose this draft window as it allows the players drafted in 20010 almost 5 years to progress to the major league level (I wish with hindsight I would have allowed longer). The greatest challenge comes in defining what a ‘successful’ MLB player is. I use this term as I wanted to distinguish between players that reach the major league level. Some players may make a handful of MLB appearances, I wanted to hone in on consistent contributors. In order to do that I focused on WAR (Wins Above Replacement). For the purposes of this study, we will use the following table from Fangraphs as a very basic guide in our analysis;

Scrub

0-1 WAR

Role Player

1-2 WAR

Solid Starter

2-3 WAR

Good Player

3-4 WAR

All-Star

4-5 WAR

Superstar

5-6 WAR

MVP

6+ WAR

These figures are based on a single season sampling (and would therefore need to be multiplied to find player effectiveness over a larger span – it is merely a guidepost for an at a glance analysis). Using WAR is of course tricky as WAR tends to alter position by position according to positional depth and quality (it’s tough for a relief pitcher to have a high WAR). A couple of caveats to this data:

This is strictly based on the 1st round of these 5 drafts.

I did not include the data from players who did not sign even if they signed for another team in a consecutive year.

The WAR listed in the chart below is for their entire MLB career to data, regardless of which club it was amassed with.

Let’s start by looking at the drafting history of teams within this window. In the table below all 30 MLB clubs are ranked by their average drafting position within the 5 year window (06-10) regardless of the number of picks they had. For example the Pirates had 5 picks in the window at an average position of 3.1. For teams that had the same average draft position, they were simply listed alphabetically. I subsequently listed the total career WAR to date of all draft picks made by a particular team as well as an average WAR for each draftee that made the majors. To account for players drafted more recently, I also listed the current organizational farm rankings according to Keith Law (Insider Reqd). Additionally, I listed the number of players per organization that did not make the majors to date (significant picks or current prospects are listed in parentheses).

Obviously the expected trend would be to see teams that had a higher average draft position amass a greater MLB WAR from its draftees. The limitations of the data certainly center around having too small a window of drafts as well as prospects drafted later not having a significant enough time in the majors to make a significant impact (Zach Wheeler for example). Having owned those limitations, there were still some compelling findings to be had.

Team

Number of Draft Selections

Average Position of Draft Selection

Number of Selections that did not make the majors

Total MLB WAR of all 1st round selections (Baseball Reference)

Average WAR of 1st round selections who made majors (Baseball Reference)

Current rank of Farm system (ESPN Law)

Pittsburgh

5

3.2

1 (Taillon)

6.2

1.55

7

Kansas City

5

4.4

0

15.5

3.1

15

Baltimore

5

5.2

2

26.3

8.76

22

Washington

6

9.1

1

28.3

5.66

9

Tampa Bay

5

10.6

3 (Beckham)*

63.2

31.6

23

Cincinnati

5

10.8

0

28.2

5.64

17

Seattle

5

13

0

17.3

3.46

21

Atlanta

3

15

1

28.3

14.15

6

San Francisco

7

15.14

2

63.3

12.66

29

Oakland

4

15.25

1

-1.3

-0.43

26

Cleveland

4

15.5

1

6.3

2.1

16

Florida

5

15.6

1

5.6

1.4

24

NY Mets

3

15.6

1

12.5

6.25

4

Detroit

4

15.75

0

10.1

2.525

30

Houston

5

16.2

4 (Foltynewicz)

7.1

7.1

3

Milwaukee

4

16.25

1

11.6

3.86

28

Chicago NL

5

16.4

1

4.5

1.125

1

San Diego

4

16.5

3

-0.2

-0.2

18

Toronto

6

16.5

2

7.3

1.825

19

Texas

6

16.83

4

2.5

1.25

11

Colorado

6

17.3

2

-0.9

-0.225

8

Arizona

5

15.8

1

37.4

9.34

14

LA Dodgers

5

19.2

1

42.4

10.6

10

Chicago AL

5

19.6

2

29.3

9.76

12

St. Louis

5

21

1

9.6

2.4

13

Minnesota

6

22

2

6.5

1.625

2

Philadelphia

4

22

2 (Biddle)

-0.1

-0.05

25

LA Angels

5

25.4

1

30.1

7.525

27

Boston

5

26.6

2

3.5

1.16

5

NY Yankees

4

28

2

9.9

4.95

20

* Number 1 overall pick.

An interesting trend was just how many players in these 5 drafts that made only a handful of MLB appearances or just didn’t stick long term. To really get at the high impact players, here is the data presented in a different format. This table simply lists players that made the majors by team as well as their cumulative WAR since becoming major leaguers. (Players in bold have been MLB All-Stars)

Pittsburgh

Brad Lincoln 0.1 Moskos 0.2 Alvarez 5.5 Sanchez 0.4

Kansas City

Hochevar 2.5 Moustakas 4.5 Hosmer 5.5 Crow 2.3 Colon 0.7

Baltimore

Wieters 13.6 Matusz 2.3 Machado 10.4

Washington

Marrero -1 Detwiler 3.1 Strasburg 11.9 Storen 4.7 Harper 9.6

Tampa Bay

Longoria 40 Price 23.2

Cincinnati

Stubbs 9.2 Mesoraco 4.3 Alonso 4.2 Leake 6.2 Grandal 4.3

Seattle

Morrow 7.4 Aumont -0.4 Fields -0.2 Ackley 8.9 Franklin 1.6

Atlanta

Heyward 24.5 Minor 3.8

San Francisco

Lincecum 22.6 Bumgarner 15.3 Posey 23.2 Wheeler 2.0 Brown 0.2

Oakland

Weeks 1.1 Green -0.5 Choice -1.9

Cleveland

Chisenhall 4.1 White -0.5 Pomeranz 2.7

Florida

Sinkbeil -0.2 Dominguez 0.9 Skipworth 0.0 Yelich 4.9

NY Mets

Davis 5.6 Harvey 6.9

Toronto

Snider 3.8 Arencibia 2.0 Cooper 0.1 Jenkins 1.4

Detroit

Miller -0.2 Porcello 10.6 Perry 0.2 Turner -0.5

Arizona

Scherzer 24.0 Parker 6.1 Schlereth 0.0 Pollock 7.3

Houston

Castro 7.1

Milwaukee

Jeffress 0.8 LaPorta -0.9 Lawrie 11.7

Chicago NL

Colvin 1.1 Vitters -1.3 Cashner 4.6 Jackson 0.1

San Diego

Antonelli -0.2

Texas

Beavan 1.5 Smoak 1.0

Colorado

Reynolds -1.8 Friedrich -0.6 Matzek 1.9 Parker -0.4

LA Dodgers

Kershaw 39.7 Morris 2.2 Withrow 0.9 Martin -0.4

Chicago AL

Poreda 0.2 Beckham 6.2 Sale 22.9

St. Louis

Ottavino 3.8 Kozma 0.9 Wallace -0.6 Miller 5.5

Minnesota

Parmelee 0.5 Revere 4.2 Hicks 0.6 Gibson 1.2

Philadelphia

Drabek -0.1 Savery 0.0

LA Angels

Conger 2.4 Grichuk 0.2 Trout 28.2 Bedrosian -0.7

Boston

Bard 4.3 Kelly -0.6 Fuentes -0.2

NY Yankees

Kennedy 9.8 Brackman 0.1

In this group there are 19 All-Stars out of 146 first-rounder picks (that’s 13% if you’re counting). Of these 19 All-Stars, 8 were top 5 picks, 13 were top 10 picks, 18 were top 15 picks (the only one who wasn’t is Mike Trout). That raises your odds of drafting an All-Star to 24% if you have a top 15 pick and, 26% if you have a top 10 pick and 32% if you have a top 5 pick.
There were only 4 teams that drafted multiple all-stars in this drafting window, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Washington and San Francisco. Of these 4 the Giants are by far the most captivating, not only because their average position in these drafts was 15 (almost 5 spots later than the next highest (Tampa Bay) but also because of their incredible success in recent seasons (3 of the last 5 World Series). The Giants success seems tied to exceptional value out of their top picks. Even looking beyond the 3 all-stars drafted in this window, the Giants continually reap and develop outstanding talent in the first 5 rounds. Aside from the players drafted in the given window in the 1st round, the Giants have added Zach Wheeler (now with the Mets), Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and going back a little further, Matt Cain in the first few rounds of the draft (that’s a cumulative drafted WAR of 52.5 to tack onto what Lincecum, Posey and Bumgarner gave them). The Giants rarely have the best farm system in baseball, because they draft talent that can help them within a few years. Their success rate at drafting talent with MLB staying power is almost as impressive as how quickly they get it to the show. Anyone want to bet against Tyler Beede being a future all-star?

Will Joe Panik be next in line as a fast moving Giants draft pick who excels in the major leagues?

Another team worthy of discussion here is the St. Louis Cardinals. Their draft results were unspectacular, Shelby Miller being the only player of note, yet they always seem to be in contention at the end of the year. They rank in the middle of the pack (15th) in payroll obligations. Yet they have reached 2 World Series and two NL Championship Series in the past 4 seasons. The Cardinals typically have a good farm system but not always elite. Delving into the Cardinals history during this period, they maximize value from the middle rounds of the draft. From 2006 onwards the Cardinals have drafted the following players in rounds 2-10: Allen Craig (6.1 WAR), Jon Jay (11.2 WAR), Lance Lynn (7.7 WAR 1st round supplementary), Joe Kelly (3.8 WAR), Matt Carpenter (9.9 WAR – 13th round), Matt Adams (3.7 WAR – 21st round) and Kevin Siegrist (41st round) who have all made significant contributions to their major league roster. St. Louis it seems has an eye for diamond in the rough talent and does a stellar job at getting it major league ready.

This discussion wouldn’t be complete without the non-example. The Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates did an AWFUL job with their top picks between 2006 and 2010. Thank goodness for Andrew McCutchen (drafted in the first round of 2005). Pedro Alvarez was the only player of significance who has made a major league impact for Pittsburgh in the draft window. While Jamieson Taillon is an elite prospect and the Pirates seem to have made amends with Gerrit Cole and Austin Meadows (drafted since the window), they have simply whiffed too many times with such an outstanding average draft position. The list of players the Pirates passed on in this window is truly staggering and while hindsight is 20/20, there is no doubt some weak draft classes slowed their ascendance to a now perennial competitor. Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, Matt Wieters, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, Manny Machado and Matt Harvey, to name but a few.

Jameson Taillon is a rare example of a highly touted prospect in amongst a slew of whiffs by the Pirates between 2006-2010

Looking at a small window into the first round of the draft has been fascinating. The most sure fire way to drafting high caliber MLB talent lies with a top 15 pick, even then there will always be whiffs. The most successful teams in recent years have found a way to maximize fast moving talent throughout the draft regardless of their position in it.

While the off-season dialogue around the NL Central has largely surrounded the Cubs and their aggressive rebuilding, the division promises to be highly competitive in 2015. The NL Central got far worse in 2014, particularly the exceptionally disappointing Cincinnatti Reds who had a -14 win swing. Even the division’s elite teams, the Cardinals and Pirates, dropped 7 and 6 wins respectively. The division’s less competitive teams did improve, with the Brewers and Cubs picking up 8 and 7 wins respectively. With the exception of the Cubs, NL Central teams had a relatively quiet off-season, which should lead to a three team showdown in September with the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs battling for supremacy in the central.

The Cardinals didn’t do much in the off-season, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. They did ship Shelby Miller to the Braves with a package for OF Jason Heyward, a significant defensive upgrade who should continue his steady offensive improvement. The Cardinals did lose top prospect Oscar Taveras to a tragic car accident this winter, but come September, this team will be in the hunt for another NL Central crown.

400+ ABs for Gregory Polanco should bode well for the Pirates talented outfield

The Pirates are going places. After two excellent seasons under the guidance of underrated helmsman Clint Hurdle, the Pirates could be primed to take the next step and make a deep October run if all goes well in 2015. Much will depend on the consistency and development of former number 1 pick Gerrit Cole, who needs to make the jump into the upper echelon of NL starters. The Pirates starting outfield of McCutchen, Polanco and Marte is frightening, with a truly impressive combination of speed, power and defensive range. With several other underrated pieces such as Joey Harrison, Neil Walker and unknown quantity Jung Ho Kang the Pirates will be a formidable team in 2015.

Things to Like: Significant upgrades at multiple positions; number 1 farm system in baseball; Joe Maddon

Things to Worry About: Consistency from Soler and Baez; a young inexperienced team

Jorge Soler is just one of a litany of talented players at Joe Maddon’s disposal

Very few teams in baseball have a front office who have played their hand more brilliantly than the Cubs. In the midst of another losing season the Cubs traded away their best major league assets for prospects which boosted their farm system to the best in baseball. They picked up their prized pitching anchor in Jon Lester and resigned stalwart Jason Hammel. Chicago’s most important acquisition however may have been manager Joe Maddon, the perfect foil for the Cubs litany of young talent. There are a lot of question marks around the Cubs young and talented roster. They may not be quite ready, but this Cubs team is primed to be dominant in the next few seasons.

Things to Like: The better ‘Cargo’; Jean Segura improving on his .286 OBP from 2014

Things to Worry About: Ryan Braun NOT enhancing his own performance; a weak rotation; little improvements across the roster

Top prospect Orlando Arcia maybe all Brewers fans have to look forward to in 2015

The Brewers just scream .500 don’t they? They don’t provoke much of a reaction, either positive or negative. Several Brewers had poor seasons in 2014 after a blistering start. Ryan Braun suffered from constant niggling injuries and Jean Segura was as bad in 2014 as he was good in 2013. The Brewers will suffer this season from a lack of rotational depth (after shipping innings eating Yovani Gallardo off to the Rangers). While the arrival of top prospect Orlando Arcia is exciting, Brewers fans may have little else to cheer in what promises to be an underwhelming 2015 season.

Having ace Cueto back for a whole season will be critical to the success of the Reds in 2015.

The Reds 2014 was disastrous, dropping a full 14 wins from 2013. They had several key contributors who struggled with injury and poor performance (most noticeably Johnny Cueto and Jay Bruce). The Reds lost Mat Latos to a trade with the Marlins and breakout sensation Alfredo Simon to the Tigers. Tony Cingranni will need to step up if their rotation is going to be competitive. Even if Devin Mesoraco can’t continue his remarkable form from 2014 a healthy season from Cueto and Homer Bailey ought to yield a marginal improvement on 2014.

Last week, I talked about the most surprising pitcher of 2014, both good and bad. This week, using Steamer projections, I will talk about the hitter that over-performed the most, as well as the one that under-performed the most. I will also throw in the two most valuable players to their teams this year.

Most underrated hitter of 2014 (measured by wOBA, qualified batters):

Michael Brantley, Indians (Projected wOBA: .315, Actual: .391)

Once the second-to-last throw-in from the Milwaukee Brewers for CC Sabathia (whatever happened to Matt LaPorta?), Brantley went from league average hitter to elite hitter in one season, with close to the same luck (although his BABIP jumped 30 points, his line drive rate went up 3 percent and his xBABIP stayed exactly the same). Brantley breakout has been fun, unexpected by purists and statheads alike, and speaks to a skill set we may look for as contact rates plummet around baseball.

Brantley has long been regarded for one great skill: lots of contact. He was fifth in the league in contact rate, and this has been his strong suit since he was a minor leaguer. While in years past the contact was meager, this year he started driving the ball a ton more, and stopped swinging at non-strikes as much (heck, he has even walked a fair amount!). And while his HR/FB and Infield fly ball rates are considerably fluky, his approach, patience, and line-drive ability are here to stay. So while 20 homers may not be his calling card, he appears to be an awesome value at the MLB level for a few more years.

Outstanding contact hitters like Brantley are starting to become a hot commodity

Guys with Brantley’s skill set have played baseball as long as baseball has been around, and for the last 20 years have been left to rot in the minors. MLB managers don’t like hearing that the new call-up hit 14 homers in thousands of major league at bats, and doesn’t rate out with an elite hit, defense or speed tool. But making contact is becoming increasingly rare in the MLB, and guys like Brantley (and Matt Carpenter) will make a living off of patient contact rates. In fact, I see this becoming a focus of player development, as the pendulum swings away from “3-true-outcome” miseries at the plate.

Honorable mentions: Victor Martinez, Josh Harrison, Charlie Blackmon

Most Overrated Hitter of 2014:

Chris Davis, Indians (Projected wOBA: .373, Actual: .308)

Chris Davis struggled in every way imaginable in 2014, compounded by the fact that he was suspended for the last month of the season, as well as the playoffs, for using a banned substance. This came after repeated accusations and denials of using PEDs in the past. I don’t take much of a stance on the issue, but there is no denying that the suspension hurt the image and credibility he built in 2013.

Former Mariners executive Tony Blengino wrote a great piece about the demise of Chris Davis. As the article points out, Davis fit the bill of so many who get chances in the majors – “light-tower power” as the saying goes – but Davis’ case seemed special. Known for his work ethic, it seemed he had found the ability to consistently crush hard contact. Unfortunately, as the article points out, the margin for error of the extreme fly ball/k rate sluggers is so low, that the power tool needs to remain elite. It’s why Henry Rodriguez and Rob Deer aren’t talked about all that much in baseball circles.

2014 was NOT all smiles for Chris Davis

In addition to the statistical abnormalities that make up Davis’ track record, his plight also speaks to the fickle nature of the ‘power tool’ that scouts crave. Since it is so closely tied to the hit tool, it can be impossible to separate at the highest level. Davis still has elite ability to strike a baseball with authority; no PED nor K rate can take that away. Unfortunately, he may not last long in the Majors if the hit tool cannot accompany that power, something that hasn’t happened his entire career outside May-June 2013.

Yes, yes, I know that Mike Trout (deservedly) and Clayton Kershaw (mostly deservedly [Andrew McCutchen for President!]) won the MVPs this year, but let’s look at who was truly the most valuable player for their franchise. What is most valuable to a team is high value for low cost. I wanted to show who had the largest bang-for-buck in the majors, and Kluber and Harrison take the cake!

Both players made darn near the MLB minimum, at $513k for Kluber and $514k for Harrison. Both also completed phenomenal sophomore campaigns. Kluber (and that beautiful cutter) has been a statistician’s darling for a year and a half now. This year, his FIP was just over half of league average all while keeping high GB rate. He even accomplished his Cy Young Season with one of the worst defenses in baseball this year. His accolades are more deserved than alarming to those in the know.

Harrison, on the other hand, was never even in the Pirates top-30 prospect list. Harrison is small with middling skill sets, and managed to rake this past year without any remarkable peripherals (.353 BABIP!!). He also provided that bat with position flexibility, as he started all over the diamond for the Pirates, who surprisingly finished 4th in the NL in runs. It will be interesting to see if Harrison can catch lightning in a bottle next year, and I for one am rooting for the former 6th round pick.

I also want to mention that Mike Trout, the two time defending champ of this award, broke baseball economy with his 2012-2013 performance. Additionally, the 2012 runner-up Giancarlo Stanton might sign a $300 million deal. Kluber and Harrison might not appear to be as glamorous as the past few notables, but they could have big paydays in their near future.