Obama Leads McCain,
But Race Is Looking Tight

Edge of Six Points
Seems Small Given
GOP's Unpopularity

By

Jackie Calmes

Updated June 12, 2008 12:01 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON -- Barack Obama begins his presidential race against John McCain with a lead in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, but not so great an edge as might be expected, given the gale-force political headwinds against Sen. McCain's Republican Party.

Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain by 47% to 41%, a spread that is twice the edge he had in the previous poll, in late April. Still, that lead is significantly smaller than the Democratic Party's 16-point advantage, 51% to 35%, when voters are asked, without candidates' names, which party they want to win the White House.

The record unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party, combined with economic worries among voters and a broad desire for change, would normally make this "the single best year for an Obama-type candidacy, and the single worst year for a McCain-type candidacy," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican Neil Newhouse.

But Sen. Obama continues to do poorly among white male voters, according to the poll. More ominous is his weakness among white suburban women, who generally are open to Democratic candidates and whose votes could be decisive. While Sen. Obama has a slight lead among white women generally, a plurality of suburbanites prefer Sen. McCain.

Some good news for the likely Democratic nominee: Despite suggestions during the nomination contest that many Hispanics and Hillary Clinton supporters wouldn't support him, the poll shows both groups overwhelmingly do.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted Friday through Monday, a "propitious time" for Sen. Obama, Mr. Hart noted, as Sen. Clinton conceded and endorsed her rival Saturday. Despite that timing and an "exceptionally strong" year for Democrats generally, Sens. Obama and McCain are in "a very competitive race for president," he says. The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.

White men make up 40% of the electorate, and the Arizona senator has a 20-point lead over Sen. Obama among them, 55% to 35%. The pollsters say race does not explain the gap; recent Democratic nominees, all white men, lost big among white men.

ENLARGE

The pollsters note that pluralities of white male voters say they don't like Sen. Obama and don't relate to his background and perceived values. In contrast, by a 2-to-1 ratio, they express positive views of Sen. McCain and identify with his background and values. The difference is less stark for voters overall. By 50% to 42%, they identify with Sen. Obama, and by 55% to 37% with Sen. McCain.

The pollsters say Sen. Obama's lower ratings reflect the wounds from his long contest against Sen. Clinton. In particular, he suffered from controversies over the racially charged sermons of his longtime Chicago pastor and the perceived elitism of his own remark at a San Francisco fund-raiser that working-class voters are "bitter" about inattention to their economic struggles and "cling" to social issues of religion and guns.

White suburban women, who make up 10% of the electorate, prefer a Democrat to be president by 11 points, 47% to 36%, the poll shows. And if Sen. Clinton were the nominee and the election were held now, she would beat Sen. McCain among this group by 14 points, 51% to 37%. Yet Sen. Obama loses to Sen. McCain by six points, 44% to 38%, among the same group.

The poll offers some evidence that Sen. Obama could be helped slightly by picking Sen. Clinton as his running mate. Offered a choice between an Obama-Clinton ticket and a Republican ticket of Sen. McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 39% of previously undecided voters said they would choose the Democrats, with 26% favoring the Republicans. Among white suburban women, with Sen. Clinton on his ticket, Sen. Obama would go from six points down against Sen. McCain to a two-point edge.

Obama advisers privately have indicated Sen. Clinton is not a likely choice. Polls and politics aside, a big consideration is the potential conflict inherent in having a vice president whose spouse is a former president and active internationally. Still, Mr. Newhouse says of Sen. Obama's search, "You've got to look at anybody who moves your numbers." Mr. Hart agrees: "She should be on the list, period."

Among all women, Sen. Obama has a big advantage: 52% to 33% over Sen. McCain. Among all men, Sen. McCain's lead is 49% to 41%, less than half his edge among white men only. Sen. Obama leads among independent voters, 41% to 36%.

To Sen. Obama's advantage, the Journal/NBC poll results seem to debunk two widely held conclusions from the Democrats' nomination contest. Exit polls of Democratic voters suggested many of Sen. Clinton's supporters wouldn't vote for Sen. Obama in November if he is the Democratic nominee. In particular, pro-Clinton Hispanics were generally thought to be cold to Sen. Obama.

In the poll, however, voters who chose Sen. Clinton in the primaries said by a 3-to-1 ratio, 61% to 19%, that they plan to vote for Sen. Obama over Sen. McCain in November. "Hillary's embrace of Obama really made a difference," Mr. Newhouse says.

By 62% to 28%, Hispanic voters support Sen. Obama. "That does not bode well for Republicans" in the Southwest, the Republican pollster added, in swing states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, where Hispanic voters are numerous enough to tip the result. Sen. McCain, who comes from a state with a large Hispanic population and has favored liberalizing policies toward illegal immigrants, has hopes of matching Mr. Bush's record of winning more than 40% of Hispanic voters.

Another Obama advantage: his supporters' satisfaction and excitement with his candidacy. While half of pro-Obama voters say they are motivated mainly by support for him, rather than opposition to Sen. McCain and Republicans, fewer than 40% of McCain voters are motivated by support for him personally. That is a measure of voter energy that could translate into greater turnout for Sen. Obama in November.

If that energy gap persists, Mr. Hart says, "it is going to be a huge problem for Republicans this fall." Mr. Newhouse agreed: "It is not that these voters aren't for McCain," he says. What's lacking is "the enthusiasm, the passion, the energy" of the other side.

"I think the real story is the shadow that George Bush is casting over this election," Mr. Newhouse adds. What's hurting Sen. McCain is voters' sense that "he will pattern his policies after George W."

Mr. Hart called the president "a 200-pound ball and chain" around McCain's ankle, a linkage Sen. Obama and the Democratic National Committee are trying to reinforce daily in voters' minds. "Unless he finds some way to cut it loose," Mr. Hart adds, "he's going to be dragging it right through the election."

The anti-Bush evidence is overwhelming. The latest poll findings add to the stretch of more than three years in which majorities have expressed disapproval of Mr. Bush's job performance. And increasingly, voters don't like him personally. By 60% to 30%, they have negative views of him, his worst showing ever.

Mr. Newhouse says it is a measure of Mr. Bush's dismal standing that his best job-approval score is for handling the unpopular war in Iraq: Only 33% approve, yet that is 12 points higher than his rating for handling the economy and five points higher than his overall-job score.

The Republican Party remains unpopular, with 47% of voters holding negative views and 28% expressing positive ones. In contrast, the Democratic Party is viewed more positively, with 43% holding a favorable view to 32% negative.

Sen. McCain's own negatives are up slightly among all voters, while Sen. Obama is viewed more positively. For the Republican, 39% hold positive views and 34% negative; in the April poll, voters by a 10-point spread, 40% to 30%, rated Sen. McCain favorably.

By 15 points, voters view Sen. Obama more favorably than negatively, 48% to 33%, up from a nine-point net positive rating in late April. Separate findings show he also is seen as more likeable, easy-going, inspirational and compassionate than Sen. McCain. The 71-year-old Arizona senator scores higher than his 46-year-old rival for experience, leadership qualities and readiness to be commander in chief.

But by a majority of 54% to 42%, voters say they'd prefer a president "who will bring greater changes" over one who is "more experienced and tested."

As in recent Journal/NBC polls, 70% of voters believe the country is "on the wrong track." The same percentage agreed "America is in a state of decline" and that is the highest figure recorded since the question was first asked in 1991. Mr. Newhouse says that perception of decline suggests voters fear the nation's problems may not be temporary or easily overcome, and it explains their overwhelming desire for change.

Concerns about the Iraq war and the economy dwarf all other issues, including terrorism, illegal immigration, the mortgage mess, the environment and global warming. Congress's 79% to 13% disapproval rating is the worst in the Journal/NBC poll's 18-year history. Yet voters prefer that Congress, not Mr. Bush, take the lead on the issue of energy and gasoline prices. Their sense that Congress has not done so -- that it is "a bystander," in Mr. Newhouse's words -- may explain its low score, he says.

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