4 Contents List of tables /5 List of figures /7 Main abbreviations /9 Main results /10 Introductory remarks, Marta Jaroszewicz, Magdalena Lesińska /14 Part I. EU/V4 and Eastern European migration: estimates, patterns and forecasts /19 1. The probable future development of international migration from Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus to Visegrad countries and the European Union The Delphi method (the search for subjective objectivity ), Dušan Drbohlav, Marta Jaroszewicz /20 2. Econometric forecasting of migrant stock from Eastern Europe in the EU Members States, Wadim Strielkowski, Marta Jaroszewicz /54 3. The impact of visa liberalisation on migration from Eastern Europe to the EU and V4 can we learn from the past?, Bernd Parusel /68 Part II. Country chapters /87 1. Migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: the present situation and possible future. The perspective of Poland, Zuzanna Brunarska, Magdalena Lesińska /88 2. Migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: the present situation and the possible future. The perspective of Czechia, Dita Čermáková / Migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: the present situation and possible future. The perspective of Hungary, Béla Soltész, Gábor Zimmerer / Migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: the present situation and the possible future. The perspective of Slovakia, Vladimír Benč / Migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: the present situation and the possible future. The perspective of Ukraine, Oleksandra Betliy / Migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: the present situation and possible future. The perspective of Moldova, Kamil Całus / Migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: the present situation and the possible future. The perspective of Belarus, Andrei Yeliseyeu /196 Part III. Critical observations on visas and migration between EU/V4 and Eastern Europe, Piotr Kaźmierkiewicz /217

5 The following research has been produced under the project Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: impact of visa abolition Project funded by: Centre for Eastern Studies International Visegrad Fund Project co-funded by: Project is led by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Poland in cooperation with: Geographic Migration Centre, Charles University, Czechia Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association Hungarian Institute of International Affairs Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Ukraine Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) Viitorul, Moldova Centre of Migration Research Foundation, Poland

6 List of tables Table 1. Number of migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in V4 states Table 2. Proportion of irregular immigrants in the stock of migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in V4 states Table 3. Possible future development of migration trends in V4 states in the case of visa abolition for Eastern European nationals Table 4. Possible future developments of migration trends in V4 states in the case of elimination of labour market restrictions for Eastern European nationals Table 5. Agreement/disagreement in V4 states with visa abolition for nationals of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova Table 6. Anticipated time perspective for visa abolition for Ukrainian, Belarusian and Moldovan nationals Table 7. Public debate in V4 states over visa liberalisation for Eastern European nationals Table 8. Estimated number of migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova abroad (V4, EU, Russia) Table 9. Proportion of irregular immigrants in the overall stock of labour migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova abroad (V4, EU, Russia) Table 10. Possible future development of migration trends in Eastern Europe in the case of EU visa abolition Table 11. Possible future development of migration trends in Eastern Europe in the case of elimination of restrictions in access to EU labour markets Table 12. Public debate in Eastern Europe over visa liberalisation Table 13. Important strategic policy measures to better manage the migration between V4/EU and Eastern Europe Table 14. Assessment of policy recommendations with regard to their feasibility and desirability Table 15. Statistical sources for the migration projections Table 16. Specifications of econometric model scenarios Table 17. Immigration of Polish, Romanian and Bulgarian nationals to Germany, Table 18. Asylum applications by nationals of Poland, Romania and Bulgaria to Germany, Table 19. First-time residence permits granted by 27 EU Member States Table 20. Immigration from five Western Balkan countries to Italy, Slovenia, Sweden and Germany,

7 Table 21. Foreign population in 14 EU Member States (citizens of Serbia, Montenegro and the FYROM) Table 22. Foreign population in 15 EU Member States (citizens of Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina) Table 23. New asylum applications by citizens of Western Balkan countries in 27 EU Member States Table 24. Citizens of Western Balkan countries found to be illegally present in EU Member States, Table 25. Residence permits granted by 27 EU Member States to nationals of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, Table 26. Number of foreigners with valid residence permits in Poland (as of ) according to different status of residence (top five countries) Table 27. Number of foreigners in Czechia Table 28. Current main push and pull factors influencing migration flows from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in Czechia Table 29. Agreement with the abolition of short-term EU visas for Eastern European nationals in Czechia Table 30. Migrants in Slovakia, 2007 and 2012 (at the end of a year) Table 31. Employment of foreigners in Slovakia in 2008, 2010, 2012 (at the end of a year) Table 32. Estimates of a number of migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in Slovakia (including irregularly staying ones) Table 33. Proportion of irregular immigrants in the stock of migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in Slovakia Table 34. Applications for EU uniform and national Slovak visas according to citizenship in Table 35. Number of visa applications and visa refusals at the General Consulate of Slovakia in Uzhgorod in Table 36. Major characteristics of Ukrainian migrants abroad, in % Table 37. Education of Ukrainian migrants, Table 38. Average earnings of Ukrainian migrants abroad, Table 39. Number of Ukrainian students abroad in Table 40. Main destination states for Moldovan migrants Table 41. How big an outflow of migrants from Moldova will there be if the European Union lifts restrictions on access to the labour market for your country nationals (in a short-term horizon of three years after restrictions are abolished) in comparison with the present inflow? 6

8 List of figures Figure 1. Total Belarusian resident stock scenarios, 27 EU countries and Norway, impact of visa abolition in 2015 Figure 2. Total Moldovan resident stock scenarios, 27 EU countries and Norway, impact of visa abolition in 2015 Figure 3. Ukrainian resident stock in 27 EU Member States and Norway in : medium scenario Figure 4. Total Ukrainian resident stock scenarios, 27 EU countries and Norway, impact of visa abolition in 2015 Figure 5. First residence permits granted by EU Member States to Western Balkans citizens in Figure 6. The employer declarations to hire a foreigner by country of origin in Poland in Figure 7. Annual average monthly wages in EaP countries and Poland in 2012 Figure 8. Visas (Schengen visas, type C) issued by Poland for citizens of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova ( ) Figure 9. Are those actors favourable to visa abolition for Eastern Partnership countries? (answers for Poland) Figure 10. What do you expect to happen (in a short-term horizon of three years) in Poland if visas for short-term travel for up to 90 days for Ukrainian, Belarusian and Moldovan nationals to the Schengen area are abolished? (most frequent answers) Figure 11. Negative impacts of future migration from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to Poland, average answers Figure 12. Positive impacts of future migration from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to Poland, average answers Figure 13. International migration flows to/from Czechia in Figure 14. Foreigners in Czechia by country of origin in Figure 15. Foreigners in Czechia by category of residence (1 st January 2013) Figure 16. TOP 10 countries of citizenship of foreign population in Hungary in (as % of total foreign population) Figure 17. GDP per capita in Hungary and in selected countries of origin of immigrants (top 5 + Belarus, Moldova), , given in 1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars Figure 18. Expected changes in migration flows in Hungary (2014 and 2024) 7

9 Figure 19. Expected changes in the inflow of migrants upon lifting labour market restrictions in Hungary (in a short-term horizon of three years after restrictions are abolished) Figure 20. In which time perspective do you expect that Schengen short-term visas for Ukrainians, Belarusians and Moldovans may be abolished? (answers for Hungary) Figure 21. Desirability of immigration of ethnic Hungarians Figure 22. Slovakia: contribution of migration to population growth Figure 23. Share of foreigners in total population in Slovakia in (in %) Figure 24. Apprehended irregular migrants & asylum seekers applications in Slovakia in Figure 25. Estimated number of Ukrainian migrants abroad (V4, EU, Russia) Figure 26. Main destination countries for Ukrainian migrants ( , ) Figure 27. Legal status of Ukrainian migrants abroad in Figure 28. What can be expected to happen (in 3 years perspective) if visas for short-term travel for up to 90 days to the Schengen zone for Ukrainian nationals are abolished? (answers for Ukraine) Figure 29. Possible migration outflows from Ukraine after possible EU labour markets opening (in 3 years perspective) Figure 30. What are the main push and pull factors of emigration pushing from Moldova and attracting in the EU? (average results) Figure 31. What can be expected to happen (in a short-term horizon of three years) if visas for short term travels for up to 90 days to the Schengen zone for Moldovan citizens are abolished? Figure 32. Negative impacts from future migration from Moldova to the EU by relevance (average results) Figure 33. Positive impacts from future migration from Moldova to the EU by relevance (average results) Figure 34. Main motivations for leaving Belarus/unwillingness to leave the country, according to the results of the 2012/13 national poll Figure 35. Number of short-term visas issued by the consulates of the EU MS in Belarus in (in thousands) Figure 36. Share of main age groups in total population of Belarus, (beginning of year; %) Figure 37. The number of persons in non-working ages per 1000 working-age population (age dependency ratio) in Belarus in (beginning of a year) 8

11 Main results Current Eastern European migrant stock in the EU may be assessed at around 1 million individuals in the case of Ukrainian nationals, 100, ,000 individuals in the case of Belarusian nationals and around 200, ,000 in the case of Moldovan nationals. The estimated numbers in Visegrad states are smaller: around 250, ,000 individuals in total including Ukrainian, Belarusian and Moldovan nationals. Although the migration situation in Russia was not our main research aim, it can be concluded that Russia still remains the primary destination for Ukrainian, Belarusian (over 90%) and Moldovan migrants. The total number of migrants from those three states in Russia (around million individuals) is higher than in the EU as a whole. What is surprising, however, is the fact that Russia probably has higher proportion of irregular migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in the overall stock of migrants from those states than does the EU. In the case of Ukrainian, Belarusian and Moldovan nationals in the Visegrad states, it can be estimated, however very roughly, that irregular migrants account for between 20% and 40% of the overall number of migrants from those states. Two out of four V4 states are key destination countries for Eastern European migrants, namely Poland and Czechia. Poland appears to be the most important destination state in the EU for both Ukrainian and Belarusian migrants. The role of Czechia in the case of Ukrainian nationals is also of the highest significance, though it has lost its previous major position due to the global economic crisis. Hungary attracts only Ukrainian nationals of Hungarian origin, while Slovakia receives insignificant numbers of Eastern European migrants. While the role of V4 states in the case of Ukrainian and Belarusian migrants is significant, Moldovans are marginally present in the region (the main EU destination for them remains Italy). Although the size of the EaP population varied significantly among V4 countries, its features are similar in all cases. Migrants from Eastern European countries are particularly visible in secondary sectors of the labour market (i.e. agriculture, construction, household services), they serve as a complementary (not competing) labour force to nationals, and they are concentrated mostly in big cities, regions around capital cities and border areas. 10

12 No massive inflow of labour migrants from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to the EU should be expected after the visa regime for short-term travel for up to 90 days is abolished. Firstly, the Delphi survey results indicate the following consequences: moderate growth in inflow of labour migrants to V4 and the EU, more long-term settlement migration, regularisation of already present migrants, family reunification, and possible growth in undeclared employment. Secondly, projections based on the econometric model point to a circa 50,000 increase in the number of Belarusians and Moldovans (counted separately) and around a 200, ,000 increase in the number of Ukrainian residents in the EU in a year perspective following the introduction of free movement of people 1. Thirdly, a conclusion from the analysis of the Western Balkan countries is that visa liberalisation has had little or no effect on the number of first-time residence permits, or on immigration flows to EU MS. As visa liberalisation did not have any measurable effect on longer-term migration trends regarding such diverse examples as Poland, the Baltic countries, Romania and Bulgaria, and later Serbia, Montenegro, the FYROM, Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina, it would be extremely surprising if a completely different pattern emerged in the cases of Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus. Our results showed that in the medium-term perspective, even if EU MS decide to lift the restrictions on access to their labour market, a rather moderate rise in the number of Eastern European migrants in the V4 and EU may occur. Only in the case of Ukraine, particularly if it is accompanied by severe economic crisis in the country, may a higher increase be expected (as many as 2.5 million Ukrainians residents in the EU in 2050 in the worst-case scenario). These rather moderate anticipated increases may be explained by: the already significant number of Eastern European migrants at the EU labour markets, growing numbers of Eastern European migrants who obtain EU citizenship, depletion of demographic potential (particularly in the case of Moldova), and increasing interdependence with Russia in the case of Belarus. It appears that the expected higher wages and general economic performance in destination countries are the strongest incentives for Eastern European nationals to migrate. The migration policy of respective destination 1 Due to the lack of comprehensive statistical data related to earlier cases of visa liberalisation in Europe, introduction of free movement of people was taken as a dummy for visa abolition. 11

13 states, particularly the possibilities of obtaining residence and labour permits alongside language and cultural similarities are also essential pull factors. Push factors, such as low wages, poverty, and political unrest in the countries of origin, appear to have lesser significance in the case of Eastern European migration. It may explain why no major outflow from Ukraine can be observed in spite of serious political and security destabilisation. If the political unrest in Ukraine continues and is accompanied by economic crisis, growth in migration flows from Ukraine may be expected. In particular, circular migration may increase, but also more Ukrainians may decide on settlement migration (family reunification, more migration for educational purposes). With regard to the qualitative characteristics of future migration from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, most probably it will become more diversified. Current circular migration, often related to seasonal low-skilled work, will remain. Concurrently, permanent settlement migration may become more significant, including family reunification and migration for educational purposes. Therefore, the irregular migration often related to circularity and low-paid jobs in the migrants niches, may decrease. The migration policies of individual Visegrad states, as well as their migration status, significantly vary among each other. Czechia, which experienced a mass inflow of Ukrainian migrants, has undergone a kind of hiatus in its migration policy. In contrast, Poland is in the process of liberalising its migration policy, although it is still one of the most homogeneous countries in the EU. Hungary directs its interest solely towards migrants of Hungarian origin. Slovakia, where the perception of migration as a threat still persists, is occupied with the question of whether (or not) to open the country towards Eastern European migrants. Where it comes to the migration policies of the countries of migrants origin, they are diversified as well. Moldova conducts the most mature emigration policy, though it is still looking for effective measures to attract migrants investments and possibly return migration. Ukraine s policy on emigration is of more of a declarative character, while Belarus attempts to counteract the emigration of its population, often by administrative means. It appears that, with small exceptions, neither public opinion nor the politicians in both the Visegrad states and Eastern Europe, are in favour of 12

14 continuous migration from Eastern Europe to V4/EU. While V4 states do not want to face any non-eu migration or any changes within their rather homogenous societies, Eastern European states are preoccupied with the perception of their fellow labour migrants as victims of exploitation and trafficking. Nevertheless, the majority of interviewed Delphi experts from all seven researched states called for greater liberalisation of V4/EU migration and visa polices, and improvements in migrants rights and job opportunities in the V4 labour markets. 13

15 Introductory remarks This book is the result of one year of solid work among a multinational research team assembled from seven states (Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova). It aims at a detailed analysis of migration patterns and migration forecasts from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to the EU/ V4. In particular, the nexus between EU visa policy and migration dynamics as well as the impact of economic, political and institutional factors on migration from Eastern Europe have been investigated. The importance of migration policy must be stressed here. Together with demand for the foreign labour force (labour market needs, level of wages, existing work opportunities) and migration networks (including ethnic links), migration policy has a powerful influence on the scale, directions and characteristics of human flows. Migration patterns in V4 and EaP states The Visegrad states together with the neighbouring countries (Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova), constitute an interesting and important case for analysing the dynamics of human flows, and the impact of different factors on migration patterns. On the one hand, the attractiveness of V4 as a destination location is slowly but steadily increasing, which is reflected in the growing stock of foreigners pursuing employment in V4 countries. On the other, despite dynamic modernisation, the V4 countries are still defeated by the old EU countries in the competition for attracting labour from third countries, offering better wages, social benefits, and working and living conditions. The obvious advantages of V4 countries for Eastern European migrants are their geographical and cultural proximity, as well as the migration networks developed over recent decades. In addition, the intra-state political, social and cultural relations between V4 countries and their Eastern neighbours remain strong. In all V4 countries, nationals from Eastern Europe (Ukrainians in particular) constitute a major migrant group; most of the EU visas in Ukraine and Belarus are issued by Polish and Czech consulates. It is a different situation in Moldova, where the main destination remains the countries of Southern Europe. The ethnic component cannot be omitted neither. Its importance is especially noticeable in the case of Poland (in relation to compatriots settled in Belarus and Ukraine), and Hungary (in regard to compatriots staying in Ukraine). The given Eastern European countries (Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova) share a common feature its former Soviet past and, as a consequence, specific relations to Russia. Russian Federation still remains a primary destination for 14

16 nationals from these countries (it is a destination for more than 90% of Belarusian, and more than a half of Ukrainian and Moldovan migrants). Moreover, there are large populations of ethnic Russians or Russian speaking individuals in these countries which serves as human capital and especially at present as a political resource used a tool of Russia s foreign policy. Another important advantage of Russia in comparison to the EU is the lack of formal barriers such as visas for potential labour migrants. Moreover, Russia has commenced creation of a common migration space based on freedom of movement with some of the former Soviet states (Belarus, Kazakhstan, and in the future also with Armenia and Kyrgyzstan). What distinguish Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova between each other are their relations with the EU and possible EU integration plans. Moldova is the most advanced in this regard, while Ukraine, after a pause of several years, went on the pro-european path recently by signing the Association Agreement with the EU. Belarus declared it has no EU integration aspirations. Research methods and assumptions To receive the most reliable results, several research methods have been applied. Firstly, expert panel research (so-called Delphi survey 2 ) was conducted. Under the Delphi survey, we conducted two-round in-depth anonymous questionnaires in all V4 and Eastern European states among around 120 migration experts with different professional backgrounds (governmental representatives, researchers, NGO workers, and representatives of international organisations). Secondly, an econometric model based on demographic and economic data was constructed to obtain projections for the future development of migrant stocks from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in the EU. Thirdly, a study that carefully examined the previous waves of visa liberalisation between the EU MS and their neighbours and then attempted to extrapolate these results for Eastern Europe was conducted. Fourthly, a detailed investigation of the role of Eastern Europe in the immigration profile of each V4 country, and of the role of EU/V4 in the emigration profile of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, was performed. Finally, all previous deliberations were assessed through the prism of current public debate on migration in the EU and EU policy towards its eastern neighbourhood. Several important definition caveats should be made. In the research we focus on a Visegrad versus Eastern European perspective. However, since all V4 2 For details see Part I, Chapter 1. 15

17 states are EU MS and Schengen members at the same time, and no barriers to mobility exist inside the Schengen area, it was therefore impossible to distinguish migration inflows inside the V4 from those inside the EU. Moreover, Eastern European statistical data and migration investigations do not regard the V4 region as a separate migration destination (usually Russia and the EU as a whole are distinguished). Hence, in particular, the Eastern European chapters adopt a rather EU-wide, not V4, perspective. The second caveat regards the definition of Eastern Europe. Without going into details, for the purposes of our research we understand Eastern Europe as Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova (without Russia). In some cases, those three states may be referred to in the text as EaP (Eastern Partnership) states, in the understanding that this term does not encompass the Southern Caucasus. Forecasts specify what may happen but they do not necessarily have to come true. In the research, we present the most reliable qualitative and quantitative forecasts of future migration developments between V4/EU and Eastern European countries based on present knowledge and some demographic, economic and institutional projections for the future. Hoverer, forecasts as a research method are not capable of predicting catastrophes, wars or economic shocks. The impact of protracted political crises on migration patterns is in particular difficult to forecast. The Ukrainian internal unrest (December 2013) and subsequent Russian annexation of Crimea (March 2014), and the ongoing military clashes in Eastern Ukraine, broke out in the course of the project s implementation. Hence, in the second round of the Delphi survey we asked the interviewed experts to take into account Ukraine s crisis, but only insofar as it impacts on longer-term trends. As a result, we obtained the response that current migration patterns and dynamics may abruptly change only in the case of much more severe unrest. If instability is limited to Eastern Ukraine, which in migratory terms is closely interlinked with Russia, no major changes in current migration dynamics to the EU may be expected however the growth in the number of asylum applications from Ukrainian nationals will surely happen. As for the empirical evidence, so far Ukraine s crisis has resulted mainly in increased internal migration. Also, during the project s implementation, EU visa restrictions on short-term travel for Moldovans were lifted. Again, it appears that our results for Moldova may support the current empirical evidence. The dynamics of cross-border movements in Moldova increased after visa abolition, in particular for family visits, which, in the longer term, may lead to an increase in family reunifications. 16

18 The report comprises three main parts. Three chapters presenting the general results of applied research methods (Delphi survey, econometric model, trends extrapolation) comprise the first part. Country chapters that discuss the Delphi results for each individual V4 and Eastern European state and contrast them with other empirical data constitute the second part of the publication. And finally, critical observations and policy analysis of the results obtained are presented in the third concluding part. Acknowledgments The editors would like to express their sincere gratitude to all the authors who contributed to this publication as well to all the experts who took part in the Delphi survey. Moreover, we would like to show appreciation to the institutions and individuals with whom we discussed project assumptions and results, in particular our project partner The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Poland, particularly Director Monika Prus and the Head of Unit, Mr. Krzysztof Lewandowski from the Department for Migration Policy. Furthermore to: Polish Consulates (or Consular Departments) in Lviv, Kyiv, Hrodna, Brest, Chisinau, EU Embassies in Kyiv, Minsk and Chisinau, Czech Consular Department in Minsk, International Labour Organization representations in Kyiv and Chisinau, International Migration Organization offices in Kyiv, Minsk and Chisinau, Consular Department of Ministry of Foreign Affair of Ukraine, The Bureau for Diaspora Relations of Moldova, Human Rights League in Bratislava; and namely to: Daniela Morari, Rafał Wolski, Steve Rogers, Olena Malynovska, Olga Kupets, Victoria Volodko, Zuzana Bargerová, Katarína Sirá, Victor Lutenco, Antonio Polosa, Valeriu Mosneaga, Diana Cheianu- Andriei, Maryia Tsimashenka, Iryna Vashko, Elena Maslenkova, Margarita Suprunovich, Bakhur Oleg, Anastacia Bobrova. Special thanks also to Tim Harrell (proofreader) and Wojciech Mańkowski (graphic creator) for their excellent work. Marta Jaroszewicz, Magdalena Lesińska Warsaw, July

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