maybe not the best place to ask, but what happens if all of the top 10 teams pass on Geno? I know it's not likely, but it's not totally out of the question. each team could easily justify passing on him. who would trade up (back into the first?) and at what point?

Geno Smith to Jacksonville #2 overall. I think the Jags want to get their QB and build around him. I think Khan is going to be paitient with Bradley.

Nassib to Buffalo in the 2nd. Its a cliche, but for good reason. He's not an elite prospect, but probably a better one than someone like Nick Foles. The Bills probably shouldn't be passing on a Nick Foles type in the 2nd.

I agree with this. Thought being that second and third round QB's often don't pan out and those second and third round picks are really valuable. Unless they grab a guy high in the draft it seems like filling other major holes with those selections and then going QB in 2014 would be a better use of picks than taking a guy in the second or third this year and possibly/probably having to go QB in the first in 2014 anyway. Could obviously be wrong, though.

I think the NY Jets have to take somebody in the first 3 rounds. The nice thing about taking a flyer about a guy in the 2nd/3rd round is that it wouldn't prevent you from taking a guy in the 1st the following year.

I think the NY Jets have to take somebody in the first 3 rounds. The nice thing about taking a flyer about a guy in the 2nd/3rd round is that it wouldn't prevent you from taking a guy in the 1st the following year.

The fact that you found 5 names in twenty years tells you the success rate of QBs taken in the 2nd or 3rd round although 6 would be Kaepernick its still a
very low success rate. That would be a nice research project to see the success rate of QBs per round.

__________________
Stafford Sig by touchdownrams the rest of the sig by Sig Master Bone Krusher Avy by King of all avys renji

NFL Network is reporting that the Raiders, Cardinals and Bills are lukewarm at best about this year's QB class, and their actions seem to indicate such. The Bills just signed Kevin Kolb (seriously) to a starter's contract ($6-7 mill per year); the Raiders are close to sealing a trade for Matt Flynn, and the Cards have signed two QBs this offseason, and are the frontrunner to sign Carson Palmer if (when) he gets dropped by the Raiders.

The Jags now seem like the most likely team to take a chance on Geno. If Jacksonville passes, we could see an Aaron Rodgers/Brady Quinn type freefall.

NFL Network is reporting that the Raiders, Cardinals and Bills are lukewarm at best about this year's QB class, and their actions seem to indicate such. The Bills just signed Kevin Kolb (seriously) to a starter's contract ($6-7 mill per year); the Raiders are close to sealing a trade for Matt Flynn, and the Cards have signed two QBs this offseason, and are the frontrunner to sign Carson Palmer if (when) he gets dropped by the Raiders.

The Jags now seem like the most likely team to take a chance on Geno. If Jacksonville passes, we could see an Aaron Rodgers/Brady Quinn type freefall.

at that point they're looking at reaching for Xavier Rhodes depending on how they feel about Revis' future with the team or reaching for Jarvis Jones. that or make a potentially franchise-changing upgrade at quarterback

also, at what point is he worth it for a team like Denver to move up if they think Geno could be a QB of the future? obviously they have bigger holes to fill, but Manning won't be there forever and if he is sitting there late first they have to at least think about it

at that point they're looking at reaching for Xavier Rhodes depending on how they feel about Revis' future with the team or reaching for Jarvis Jones. that or make a potentially franchise-changing upgrade at quarterback

also, at what point is he worth it for a team like Denver to move up if they think Geno could be a QB of the future? obviously they have bigger holes to fill, but Manning won't be there forever and if he is sitting there late first they have to at least think about it

The Jets still have other options like Kenny Vaccaro, one of the guards or possibly even Cordarrelle Patterson. They could take a QB, but I don't think they're giving up on Sanchize just yet. Beyond the Jets, try finding another landing spot for QB.

Also, I don't think Denver's taking a QB early this year. They spent a second rounder on Brock Osweiler just last year.

NFL Network is reporting that the Raiders, Cardinals and Bills are lukewarm at best about this year's QB class, and their actions seem to indicate such. The Bills just signed Kevin Kolb (seriously) to a starter's contract ($6-7 mill per year); the Raiders are close to sealing a trade for Matt Flynn, and the Cards have signed two QBs this offseason, and are the frontrunner to sign Carson Palmer if (when) he gets dropped by the Raiders.

The Jags now seem like the most likely team to take a chance on Geno. If Jacksonville passes, we could see an Aaron Rodgers/Brady Quinn type freefall.

At some point though with the QB depth in this class I wouldn't be surprised if each of those teams ends up drafting a QB - they just won't be reaching for them. All these QBs have some positive traits to build from - I don't think any of them are ready to step in day one and take over a team.

Once the dust settles with these QB moves - assuming Flynn to Oak and Palmer going to AZ, Kolb in Buffalo and Smith in KC I would not be the least bit surprised if they get a guy they like in the second/third round. Arians, Reid and Marrone are all offensive minded guys - Arians worked with and developed Roethlisberger/Luck, Reid has developed McNabb, Kolb and Foles, Marrone worked with Brees. In Oakland they brought in Greg Olson who also has a history of working with younger QBs like Freeman in TB and Gabbert in Jacksonville. I think each of these teams has a coach that likes developing younger QBs

I'm assuming that the new ownership/personnel and coaching regimes in Jacksonville and Cleveland both have their minds made up on Geno Smith and EJ Manuel.

In AZ I could see Arians opting for Glennon/Landry Jones/Bray - the prototypical pocket passers. Arians went on record that he was not keen on the spread option.

KC - I could see Nassib/Wilson. My own personal theory is that Reid is somewhat enamored with Wilson who seems to evoke Favre comparisons. Wilson has become somewhat of a forgotten commodity due to the abortion that was the Razorbacks 2012 season. Nassib has the type of mobility and athleticism to fit Reid's system as well.

Buffalo - Barkley/Nassib seem to be the type of QBs to fit Marrone's WCO being implemented in Buffalo. Nassib has his obvious connection to Marrone but I would not be surprised if the Bills are enamored with Barkley secretly. He seems to be the perfect fit for Marrone's offense.

Oakland - seems to bit the wildcard. Nassib reminds me of Flynn who they are trying to swing the trade for. But they could also target somewhat like Landry Jones/Tyler Bray.

This is just pure speculation on my point trying to logically figure out who fits where and as we all know many of the moves made in the draft are not logical

I think the NY Jets have to take somebody in the first 3 rounds. The nice thing about taking a flyer about a guy in the 2nd/3rd round is that it wouldn't prevent you from taking a guy in the 1st the following year.

In general, the success rate of QBs is low. It probably has a lower margin for error than any other position in the NFL. You're either very good, or your team is actively looking to replace you. Your odds of hitting on a QB are, quite obviously, better in the first round. But they still aren't pretty. Check the first rounders:

A lot of first round crap on that list. It's very hard to be a good NFL QB. I'm not really a fan of treating this like it's a statistical thing, as if you can play the odds and just draft the #1 QB, because sometimes the #1 QB is Jim Druckenmiller. You're much more likely to miss than you are to hit.

NFL Network is reporting that the Raiders, Cardinals and Bills are lukewarm at best about this year's QB class, and their actions seem to indicate such. The Bills just signed Kevin Kolb (seriously) to a starter's contract ($6-7 mill per year); the Raiders are close to sealing a trade for Matt Flynn, and the Cards have signed two QBs this offseason, and are the frontrunner to sign Carson Palmer if (when) he gets dropped by the Raiders.

The Jags now seem like the most likely team to take a chance on Geno. If Jacksonville passes, we could see an Aaron Rodgers/Brady Quinn type freefall.

Yeah I could easily see all these QBs drop in a major way. It's hard to imagine more than 1-2 QBs taken in the first round at all.

On the flip side, I think many of these QBs are elite level backups, better than game managers if the starter goes down. Very few of these guys will be given a chance to start as rookies IMO.

Would the jags really take a QB with the 2nd overall pick and have an open competition in camp?? Not the worst situation to have I guess.

I think the NY Jets have to take somebody in the first 3 rounds. The nice thing about taking a flyer about a guy in the 2nd/3rd round is that it wouldn't prevent you from taking a guy in the 1st the following year.

As mentioned by a couple of other people, the success rate for second and third round quarterbacks is really low. And I didn't even say that they were guaranteed to bust if they drafted someone in the second or third round. But odds are that a second or third round QB won't be the long-term answer. The Jets have enough needs that they can't really afford to burn a pick on a guy who might be the answer but probably won't be. Which is exactly what I said in the other post, so I'm not sure if you actually read it.

As mentioned by a couple of other people, the success rate for second and third round quarterbacks is really low. And I didn't even say that they were guaranteed to bust if they drafted someone in the second or third round. But odds are that a second or third round QB won't be the long-term answer. The Jets have enough needs that they can't really afford to burn a pick on a guy who might be the answer but probably won't be. Which is exactly what I said in the other post, so I'm not sure if you actually read it.

I definitely do not disagree with you looking at it from a historical prospective. Statistically 2nd/3rd QBs have not had much success. But I would make an educated guess that alot of these QBs were also sitting behind a veteran who got most of the reps and were not developed as much as they could of been etc.

The past few years with the evolution of offenses, QBs throwing a ton more in college - getting the reps, getting all this attention and training during draft preparations (IMG Academy etc.) they are coming into the NFL more prepared. Offensive coaching staffs in the NFL also seem to be so much more involved in developing young QBs as well. I just think this year in the 2nd/3rd round if guys like Glennon, Nassib, Wilson and Jones are there - teams are going to be glad they dropped to the second because they will see QBs with a ton of experience and quality skillsets to build from.

I just think moving forward it will be interesting to see if their is a change in how these QBs are treated and developed. Andy Reid made a cottage industry out of developing QBs these past few years.

For example: I could see KC picking up Joeckel in the first and Wilson in the third. I think KC fans would be ecstatic given Reid's ability to coach up and develop 2nd/3rd round QBs. They tell Albert to move to the right side or they trade him.

I definitely do not disagree with you looking at it from a historical prospective. Statistically 2nd/3rd QBs have not had much success. But I would make an educated guess that alot of these QBs were also sitting behind a veteran who got most of the reps and were not developed as much as they could of been etc.

The past few years with the evolution of offenses, QBs throwing a ton more in college - getting the reps, getting all this attention and training during draft preparations (IMG Academy etc.) they are coming into the NFL more prepared. Offensive coaching staffs in the NFL also seem to be so much more involved in developing young QBs as well. I just think this year in the 2nd/3rd round if guys like Glennon, Nassib, Wilson and Jones are there - teams are going to be glad they dropped to the second because they will see QBs with a ton of experience and quality skillsets to build from.

I just think moving forward it will be interesting to see if their is a change in how these QBs are treated and developed. Andy Reid made a cottage industry out of developing QBs these past few years.

For example: I could see KC picking up Joeckel in the first and Wilson in the third. I think KC fans would be ecstatic given Reid's ability to coach up and develop 2nd/3rd round QBs. They tell Albert to move to the right side or they trade him.

On the flip side, quarterback is easily the most important position in the NFL. Guys who teams feel are potential franchise QB's get pushed way up in the draft. We saw it a couple of years ago with a few guys, Christian Ponder the most notable, going way earlier than most expected.

Those guys certainly have bases to work with. But to me, if teams think they are legitimate long-term options they will take them in the first round. It's not like there is a surplus of capable quarterbacks in the league. I wouldn't be surprised if someone outplays their draft position, but if I was a team I wouldn't bank on it either.

To me, second and third round quarterbacks are getting too much hype right now because of the recent successes of Dalton and Wilson. Wilson is an anomaly, he dropped due to his height and that looks like a big mistake by teams. Frankly to me, the jury is still out on Dalton. He's not a bad quarterback, but I think he benefits from throwing to AJ Green and at this point in his career certainly isn't the kind of quarterback who improves the play of those around him. And those are the true franchise QB's teams are after. The ones who consistently bring their teams to the playoffs. It's early, but it looks like the Seahawks might have that with Wilson (though again, he's not the kind of second/third round QB who comes around often and I don't think there's a Russell Wilson in this draft). I don't think Dalton is that kind of player, though.

And I was really just talking about the Jets specifically. That's a team that is a complete mess and has needs all over the place. To spend a relatively premium selection on a quarterback they like but don't love (because if they loved him, they wouldn't pass on him with their first selection) with the expectation that there's a good chance that they would need to spend a very high 2014 pick on the same position just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Who knows whether or not it happens, but my guess is that it's a first round or bust situation. Maybe Idzik is going to be looking for his own Russell Wilson coming from Seattle, but my guess is that he'll play the percentages, assume he's not in this draft (or if he is, that the odds of him being the guy the Jets draft is low), and wait until next year.

Maybe Idzik is going to be looking for his own Russell Wilson coming from Seattle, but my guess is that he'll play the percentages, assume he's not in this draft (or if he is, that the odds of him being the guy the Jets draft is low), and wait until next year.

I'm not a Jets fan, but my crude analysis is that Idzik is walking a fine line right now. He's trying to look like he's doing everything he can to help Rex win right now and improve the team as a whole (yes, trading Revis is part of that), but realistically the guy has to know that he's going to be firing Rex next January and you don't go get your QBOTF before you get your CoachOTF. Plus, Rex's tattoo would need to be changed if they drafted a QB. Awk-ward...