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Thursday, December 07, 2006

Lacking the Black Stuff

PLEASED TO MEET YOU

My name is Peter Karellas and I'm a recent graduate of Pace University in New York. I'll be blogging over the next month about issues related to US Energy policy and anything else that catches my fancy.

I hope you all enjoy what I have to share and if you don't; tell me so!

MY FULBRIGHT EXPERIENCE

I recently returned from an 11-month research tour of the Republic of Macedonia and the Balkan region. Stories abound, here are few short bits of my time in Eastern Europe. Hard to believe that this small, landlocked country of only 2m people was recently on the brink of civil war in 2001. Since then, the economy has remained mostly stagnant with little privatizations or foreign investment.

What's more unsettling is that since I departed in October 2006, the former leader of Albanian guerilla fighters (Ali Ahmeti) has hinted that if his ousted political party (which won 60% of the vote in the recent election) is not given it's proper recognition, they may take up arms again. Macedonia is used to being ignored. Although tiny, Macedonia can influence countries surrounding it (Albania) by becoming and open wound of ethnic conflict in the region.

LET THAT GOOD OIL FLOW

More than likely these are just empty innuendos by Ahmeti sympathizers and at any rate, would not harm the oil/gas pipeline being developed through the region. The pipeline would originate from the oil rich Black Sea in Bulgaria, through Macedonia and end up at the Albanian coast on the Adriatic.

At the same time the good ol' US of A is getting comfy on the couch and building a state of the art embassy atop a hill in the Macedonian capital of Skopje. The Bourgas-Vlora oil pipeline will be 870 km long and its transportation capacity will be 35 million tons of oil annually. Overall, this project will cost nearly 1.2 billion euro and is being financed primarily by the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) - a US development agency - the Eximbank and Credit Suisse First Boston, among others.

84 Comments:

The interesting aspect of Macedonia's progress and relative stability was the malfunction of the embargo as the country was renamed as the FYROM (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia). The offshoot, based on the underdeveloped nature of the country at that time, consisted of a grey market, basically a mixture of legitimate and illegitimate business ventures. The lack of jobs (at least a 25% unemployment rate) has been dragging the country's progress, but it is fully wireless by now. Macedonia should seek innovative ways to produce jobs through partnerships with oil industries and nations surrounding the area, particularly Bulgaria. What do you perceive about these prospects?

So peter do you think that things will spiral out of control and that FYROM will need another international force or something like NATO operation Amber Fox II to assit and act as a police force? Do you think people will listen this time and fix problems before the outbreak of guns? Do you think that violence is inevitable? What is your impression?

Although Macedonia was renamed FYROM it has since been recognized as the Republic of Macedonia by the United States. The grey market does still exist as well as some small arms smuggling as well. Sadly to say, although proclaimed last year to be the first wireless country, it certainly is not. If by definition "wireless country" means having wireless access at almost every point in at least the capital; it has not met that goal. As far as Macedonia's partner prospects: Greece seems out of the question although the embargo is no longer in effect. Bulgaria and Serbia would be fine partners. Specifically I would see Serbia aiding in Macedonia's banking sector and Bulgaria is already a partner in a trans-balkan oil pipeline. The real question is what does Macedonia have to offer its partners especially the new addition to the EU (Bulgaria). One would immediately think cheap labor and cheap goods, but lack of manfacturing and the presence of the grey market can stifle robust growth in this respect. I believe Macedonia can make it happen, but it will largely depend on those who are elected to office and how much end up in their back pockets and bank accounts.

No. I don't think Macedonia will spiral out of control again and require another international force. Whatever ethnic tensions are present; no one has an appetite for war. I think this is largely to do with the fact that if war does persist, more compromises will have to made and many outsiders will have their input on how the nation will move from there. There are minor acts of violence in the country, but nothing on the scale that would be considered an act to instigate war.

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