OrderFlow charts and Notes 18/09

General Chat Transcript

Room Name: VtrenderDate and Time: September 18, 2014 09:15:43

[08:54]Shai : Gm all[09:02]Chiranthan : Gm[09:02]Sharad : GM all[09:04]r m : Good Morning folks![09:04]r m : Hi Shai, Chiranthan, Sharad[09:06]Chiranthan : Hi rm[09:06]Manik : gm shai , rm & friends[09:08]r m : Hi Manik[09:09]Kathir : Good morning Shai RM amd all friends[09:10]Narendra : Good morning Shai RM amd all friends[09:11]r m : Hi Kathir, Narendra[09:11]Kathir : hypo llevels ?[09:11]r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-18th-sept/[09:12]Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-18th-sept/[09:12]Shai : We are looking for an exit of value and range for a trade[09:12]Shai : below VAlue we will get the bias right and exit of range will be the trigger[09:14]Shai : The FED was a non- event and played out to market expectations[09:18]Shai : 7956 low[09:18]Shai : buyers off the open[09:20]Shai : usdinr contained below 61.44[09:21]Shai : eyes at VAL 7977[09:25]Sumit : gm everyone[09:25]r m : Hi Sumit[09:25]Kathir : HI SUMIT[09:26]Anay : GM All[09:26]r m : Hi Anay[09:27]Kathir : hi anay[09:30]Manik : GM kathir[09:31]Shai : Nf wants to do 80%[09:32]Shai : keep trigger abv 7980 for 7996 sl of 7973[09:33]Kathir : GM manik[09:38]r m : wow![09:39]Narendra : book 50 percent in nifty[09:39]Shai : lose all[09:39]Shai : close*[09:39]Narendra : ok[09:39]Shai : 8070[09:39]Shai : what d hell[09:40]Sumit : 16034 high[09:41]Sharad : what was this….[09:41]Sharad : in just 15 min[09:41]Sharad : 100 nifty[09:41]Shai : no ticks btw 8035- 8070[09:41]r m : @Sumit, green OF behaving like lottery ticket this time 🙂[09:41]Narendra : todays morning high in bannifty was 15979[09:42]r m : Hypo 1 in NF took 1 minute 🙂[09:42]Kathir : yeah 🙂[09:42]Shai : No some tick eroor[09:42]Shai : fat fingers[09:42]Sumit : yes rm.[09:42]Shai : still plenty of buyers[09:42]Kathir : if this had happenned 5 min before i would have got a huge profit[09:42]Narendra : yesterdays 100 point move coming on the positive side[09:42]Sharad : True RM … but can all see NF and BNF both at a time in screen… i can not see even in full screen mode[09:43]Sumit : but didn’t take position[09:43]Shai : can rush to 8100[09:44]r m : yes Sumit, possible to monitor only one at a time, one has to slide the screen otherwise[09:45]Sharad : but can Shai adjust height of main charts so that we can see both ata time[09:46]Sharad : like profile charts we can see both two geather[09:46]r m : perhaps width reduction may do the trick, but then less of each chart will be visible?[09:46]r m : i mean reduce the width of NF and BNF charts and display them side to side[09:47]Narendra : 2 times seller came as nifty comes around 8070[09:47]Sharad : that is also possible … or just reduce height and that will be good[09:47]Sumit : or move the top blue/red bars of bnf at the bottom[09:47]Shai : Sharad this weekend I will reduce the width and see if it gets better[09:48]Sharad : ok good… as i was watching BNF and did not know that nifty moved so much[09:48]Shai : 8070- 8080 previous support became supply and now reference[09:49]Shai : supp of last week and supply this week[09:49]r m : Green OF signal in BNF generated 165 points!![09:49]Shai : 8048 support now[09:50]Shai : lots of contracts were taken off yesterday- this could be the institutions putting it back[09:50]Kathir : bnf supp now?[09:50]Shai : 15970[09:51]Shai : refer hypo[09:51]Kathir : ok thanks[09:51]Shai : 16130 tgt[09:52]Kathir : previously when NF was at 8070 -80 bnf was at 16300[09:52]Amit J : superb shai – 7955. beautiful[09:53]r m : @Amit, remember that 8150 possibility mentioned by Shai yeseterday – we talked about 8100CE lottery ticket 🙂[09:53]Sharad : yes RM[09:53]r m : I bought the lottery this morning and it tripled 🙂[09:54]Kathir : 11 low today and 44 high[09:54]r m : i mean i exited when it tripled[09:54]Kathir : @rm great trade congrats[09:54]r m : Thanks man, credit to my accout and thanks to Shai’s 🙂[09:55]Kathir : lol[09:55]Shai : failed auction theory 🙂 All credit there- (09:52) Amit J:superb shai – 7955. beautiful[09:55]Kathir : if you want i am ready to give my bank account number..no hesitation please[09:55]Shai : theory is – If FA point is not visisted in 5 days then becomes a big short trem support[09:56]r m : @Kathir, sure, I will take training from Nigerian scam guys and help you out 🙂[09:56]r m : OK Shai, thanks[09:57]Shai : 8048 and 8016 supports to hold[09:57]Shai : else we go back to day low below 8016[09:57]Kathir : morning bnf struggled a bot to cross pdl..after 10 mins now rfuses to go below pdh[09:57]Kathir : 🙂[09:57]r m : such are the vagaries of stock markets 🙂[09:58]Sumit : still green. lottery ticket not closed yet[09:59]r m : yes, may be such huge extensions present a good opportunity to convert part of OF trade into Shai’s hypo based trades?[10:03]r m : reds coming in BNF too now[10:04]Sumit : green OF not giving up[10:05]r m : yes[10:05]r m : some blue bars appearing now and then to give it sustenance![10:06]Sumit : from 9.38 to 9.40, 125 pts in bn[10:07]Kathir : any info why this went up suddenly so fast?[10:08]r m : ours is not to ask why … 😀[10:08]Kathir : 🙂[10:08]r m : (09:50) Shai :lots of contracts were taken off yesterday- this could be the institutions putting it back[10:09]r m : pink appeareth[10:14]Shai : spot traders- cross of 8051 now will give 8085 by close[10:14]Shai : BN spot has to cross 16015 for 16130[10:15]Shai : high possible scenario is expiry around 8080 spot[10:16]Shai : As long a s we stay above 8016 today, today’s NF profile is a rejection of yesterday’s value and moving up[10:17]Shai : shorts will keep covering now as long as that 8043 and vwap hold in today’s chart[10:18]Anay : ok[10:18]Anay : no fresh shorting to be done?[10:18]Shai : another reference area is trend day profile of tuesday which was 7952- 8056[10:18]Shai : so if we hold above that trend day market is good to go up and possibly close tomorrow at 8152[10:19]Shai : Anay shorts in with a chance onnly till 8080 F holds[10:19]Shai : I’m expecting 8105/ 8152 above that 8080[10:19]Anay : right…8080 is the SL[10:20]Shai : auction now should stay 8050- 8080 and probe for seller strength- auction market theory[10:20]Anay : ok[10:31]r m : Zerodha trader’s option calculator has resumed its duties 🙂[10:32]Shai : 8000 ce has dropped 15%[10:32]Shai : in OI that is[10:34]Shai : Intra OI % change- http://screencast.com/t/49cQVHyyx9Fn[10:35]Shai : and this is the chart from Tuesday- http://screencast.com/t/xQrIVU5s3J[10:35]Shai : sorry Monday[10:36]Shai : In BNF we can take a long trade again abv IBH for 16130[10:37]Shai : or buy below at 16000 with sl below 15970 for 16050/ 16130 on cross[10:44]Kathir : @shai what is the supp and res for usd/inr now?[10:47]Shai : usdinr has gobe back to a quiet mode[10:48]Shai : I see 61.10 today from here[10:48]Shai : but the bigger move could be next week when 61.10 breaks and we get 6071[10:48]Kathir : ok thanks[10:48]Shai : this week tom could close back at 602.25- 60.30[10:49]Shai : Volatility should come back in usdinr now only after next wed as it prepares for RBI next[10:49]Kathir : ok[10:49]Shai : better blue in the BNF chart[10:57]Kathir : 8200 WAS PREVIOUS HIGH RIGHT?[10:57]r m : yep[10:58]Kathir : @shai nf bnf supp same now 8048 and 15970?[10:59]r m : http://screencast.com/t/u1m7eoYMQnaU[11:00]Kathir : @RM thanks[11:00]r m : welcome[11:03]Shai : can move sl’s to just below dpoc[11:03]Shai : in a trend day vwap lags but dpoc should keep rising[11:03]Shai : watch for signs of sellers in BNF at 16130[11:04]Shai : if they dont come by 16155 then we rise to 16308 by tom[11:05]Shai : It’s a trend day so 2 things will happen between now and close[11:06]Shai : 1) we will get a pull back between 12.00 and 1.40 which will be an adjustment of inventory[11:06]Shai : this pull back has to hold vwap at all costs[11:06]Shai : 2) if vwap holds we will close at 3.30 at session highs[11:07]Anay : ok[11:07]Anay : applies for both NF and BNF rt?[11:24]Kathir : @anay applies for both[11:25]Anay : ok thanks[11:26]Shai : yes applies to both and all traded instruments actually[11:26]Shai : Nf now probing above 8080 for new buyers[11:26]Shai : Not there yet[11:27]Shai : 8105 is the ref line in F[11:27]Shai : 8085 spot[11:28]Shai : 16155 BNF F and 16105 spot[11:32]Anay : where is NF VWAP currently?[11:33]Sumit : 8046[11:34]Kathir : 8051 now coming up[11:35]Anay : ok[11:35]Kathir : @RM where is the dpoc band for NF..doesnt appear on screen[11:36]Shai : 8006[11:36]Shai : dpoc is the blue line[11:36]Shai : it should come to 8080 now[11:36]Narendra : 8066[11:36]Shai : big volume being exchanged here[11:41]Shai : aggressive selling coming in NF[11:42]Shai : 8075 is ref line below IBH- Buyers have to come and protect it[11:42]Shai : else can go to vwap[11:42]Kathir : @shai i asked about the dpoc band..like 16081 in bnf[11:42]Shai : that is the upper dev value area[11:43]r m : 8092[11:43]r m : dvah in NF[11:43]Shai : will firm up as value area tom[11:43]Shai : 8092 now[11:43]Kathir : ok thanks[11:51]Narendra : shai view on hdfc fut for short term[11:51]Narendra : i am swing long[11:55]Shai : can add abv 1045.6 as move will be fast to 1059[11:55]Shai : resistance now at 1067 F[11:56]Shai : close abv 1045 better[11:57]Shai : 1054 then is certain tom[11:57]Narendra : ok[12:00]Shai : NF longer OrderFlow has changed bias to longs – Buy signal at 8082[12:00]Shai : BNF Buy signal not yet activated[12:00]Chiranthan : This is for positional buy in NF?[12:02]Narendra : ya recieved on twitter[12:02]Narendra : 8084[12:03]Shai : Yes Positionals Buyers becoming stronger[12:04]Shai : That’s the strength of a bull market- 8 day trend can reverse in 2 hours[12:06]Shai : technical traget of the signal is 8126 F anmd 8230 F- refer to your FDN notes[12:06]Shai : sl below 8023 F now on closing basis[12:10]Sumit : Shai, 16103 was buyer??[12:10]Shai : yes[12:10]Sumit : what can be the sl for bnf now[12:11]Shai : No wait – that algo sold into a rising market[12:12]Shai : he’s at 16103 absorbing the buying[12:12]Sumit : ok thanks[12:13]r m : a little bit less volume in that algo compared to the one at 16048?[12:13]Sumit : so far he is doing a good job[12:13]Kathir : hdfc above 1045 now 1051[12:13]Shai : this must be a pre planned order[12:13]r m : ok[12:14]Shai : we can see that 8048 was all buys[12:14]Shai : 16048*[12:15]Shai : thank Narendra for pointing that out- (12:13) Kathir :hdfc above 1045 now 1051[12:16]Kathir : yes shai thanks both 🙂[12:16]Sumit : Shai, now 16130 very likely and will offer resistance??[12:16]r m : it is thanksgiving season 🙂[12:16]Kathir : yeah :)lol[12:17]Narendra : if i want to trail hdfc bought @ 1034 what should be the sl[12:18]Kathir : @rm shai mentioned bhel above 226 wil touch 240..today it has crossed[12:18]Kathir : spot[12:18]r m : @Kathir, keep miniting man 🙂[12:19]Kathir : 🙂[12:20]Sumit : Shai, now what strategy at 16130 bnf?[12:21]Kathir : shai has put the red line for nf at 8100..so nf has to fight there[12:27]Shai : Sumit – safe would be to exit and buy abv 16160[12:28]Sumit : thanks Shai[12:28]Shai : or keep tsl at a pink whenevre it comes[12:28]Sumit : ya possible[12:29]Kathir : @shai inr below 61.10 if short below 61.09 what will be Sl[12:29]Shai : 10 point sl and 10 point tgt[12:29]Shai : I don’t expect 61 to break this week[12:30]Sumit : Shai, can you remove 8100 line please 🙂[12:30]Kathir : lol[12:30]Kathir : ok thanks[12:30]r m : 😀[12:33]Shai : it’s a good trade if 16160 is crossed[12:33]Shai : + 150 for the taking though we will part book at 16230[12:33]Shai : tgt is 16310[12:33]Shai : same way 8105- 8140 F[12:35]Shai : sometimes the auction just wants to reach a place and our NSE will provide a plaform just like 8016- 8045- 8070 this morning[12:35]Shai : tick or no tick- we will get there 🙂[12:35]r m : tickless trading 🙂[12:36]Shai : 8108[12:36]Chiranthan : NF a buy now?[12:38]Anay : NF sellers at highs?[12:38]Shai : buy abv 8108 with sl below 8094 for 8035/ 8048[12:39]Shai : 8135/ 8148*[12:39]Shai : Anay move being sold into- If we don’t pullback today we will revsisit here at these levels in 2-3 sessions[12:40]Anay : ok[12:41]Shai : the problem with auction market theory’s 80% rule and the trend day concept is that they always get what they want[12:41]Shai : and everythiung else including orderflow takes a back seat[12:44]Shai : but passive buyers are stronger today[13:17]Shai : nO pull back in the trend day today[13:18]Shai : 14 poinmts is the biggest drop[13:18]Shai : max we can expect a drop is of 28 then off highs[13:18]Shai : so 8095 is a safe sl now[13:19]Narendra : shai i am long in 3 stocks can u help me how to manage this trade[13:19]Shai : 64 point drop in BNF is max[13:19]Narendra : rcom fut 101.3, nhpc fut20.4, hdfc fut 1034[13:20]Shai : yes sure – would be my pleasure[13:20]Shai : intra or swing?[13:20]Narendra : swing[13:20]Narendra : whats should be the tgt i should look and what should be the trailing sl[13:21]Shai : HDFC 1067 is res – if you get 1059 today or tom at open start reducing and keep sl at 1055 on rest[13:22]Shai : hard stop is now at 1043 whicg shgould not violate if you want 1067[13:22]Shai : hard stop at 1044 * not 1043[13:23]Shai : 1067 can come tom at close or mon at open[13:26]Shai : rcom F has res at 108- 109[13:26]Shai : it’s a technical bounce and would suggest book gains closer to that[13:27]Shai : 107 is easy from here[13:28]Shai : NHPC 20.92 res[13:29]Shai : if it closes abv 21.2 tom then you will get 21.92[13:29]Shai : 21.92/ 22.6[13:30]Narendra : what should be the sl now in rcom and nhpc[13:30]Shai : Nhpc 20.25[13:31]Shai : rcom 103.7[13:31]Shai : trailing[13:31]Narendra : ok thanks[13:31]Shai : mw[13:35]Kathir : usd/ir 61.02 🙂[13:35]Shai : And I thought 8152 would come tom 🙂 – (10:18) Shai :so if we hold above that trend day market is good to go up and possibly close tomorrow at 8152[13:35]r m : 🙂[13:37]Shai : On blast up in BNF is pending[13:37]Shai : usually comes after 2.30[13:37]Shai : can do 100- 150 points quickly[13:38]Shai : that will be our 15300 tgt[13:39]Anay : 16300 🙂[13:39]Kathir : @anay yeah this market morning deals with 15 k and eve 16k[13:40]Shai : 16300 yes 🙂[13:41]Kathir : shai’s 8100 red line seems to be very strong[13:41]r m : @Kathir, borrow that pencil from Shai and draw lines after you enter a trade 🙂[13:42]Kathir : lol[13:42]Kathir : 🙂[13:42]Sumit : 🙂[13:43]Kathir : have to be carefull sometimes in a hury i will draw the line opposite side[13:43]Sumit : rm, bnf green since 12.05[13:43]Kathir : @shai can we take that 16140 bnf as support for intra[13:44]Shai : Kathir take this for close at highs- (13:19) Shai :64 point drop in BNF is max[13:44]r m : @Sumit, bnf was pink from 1300 to 1308 – short lived existence of pink[13:44]Shai : about 120[13:45]Sumit : oh that was nf.[13:45]Sumit : but this is not bad either[13:45]r m : yeah, nf is riding on a white horse today[13:46]Kathir : ok shai[13:53]Kathir : @RM u was happy with triple but it gave u another triple[13:54]r m : yeah, Shai gave the target of 8150 yesterday[13:54]Kathir : yes[13:54]r m : but i sold yesterday for 5 points, got it back 16 poins cheaper today[13:55]r m : looks like NF is done today?[13:59]Kathir : ok ge[13:59]Narendra : vwap too far from cmp[14:00]Shai : does not matter today[14:01]r m : I think indo-china agreements are about to be annouced now[14:01]Shai : (11:03) Shai :in a trend day vwap lags but dpoc should keep rising[14:01]Shai : Rm prefer NF to look up 8150- 58 once[14:01]r m : ok, thanks[14:02]Shai : Having said that OrderFlow is not conducive for this move abv 8080 F[14:02]Shai : so we but ATM puts in last 10 minutes today[14:02]r m : ok[14:03]Narendra : dpoc is 8066 in nifty[14:03]Shai : the morning after trend day should give us a vwap or vpoc visist[14:03]Shai : yes it is not rising[14:04]Shai : (13:18) Shai :14 poinmts is the biggest drop[14:04]Shai : (13:18) Shai :max we can expect a drop is of 28 then off highs[14:04]Shai : 8105 new supp[14:11]r m : no agreement on border disputes[14:12]Shai : eyes on BNF[14:12]Shai : holding abv 16150[14:19]Shai : Nf headed for 8200 F[14:20]Shai : cancle the idea of buying puts[14:20]r m : ok, thanks[14:22]Shai : Minor res at 16230 and off she will go abv that again[14:23]Kathir : oh shai treating bnf as a girl 🙂[14:24]r m : yeah, sweet 25 🙂[14:24]Kathir : infact naughty girl[14:24]Kathir : when she is angry e have to be very arefull[14:24]Kathir : we[14:24]Kathir : carefull[14:25]r m : tantrums you know 🙂[14:25]Kathir : 🙂[14:26]Kathir : @rm if market closes in this range will there be any gap up tomrw?[14:27]r m : @Kathir, i guess that is what Shai’s thoughts are behind changing the decision to buy ATM puts[14:28]Kathir : ok ge[14:28]Kathir : ATM?[14:29]r m : at the money 🙂[14:29]r m : always use jargon 😀[14:29]Kathir : 🙂 ok..then we can go to real ATM[14:31]Anay : dpoc stil at 8066[14:32]r m : market spent a lot of time in 8120-8130 range, high time dpoc goes there too 🙂[14:33]r m : it is at 8084 actually, just see the MP charts[14:34]Anay : oh yes[14:38]Anay : @Shai below what level is the view to 8200 negated?[14:38]Shai : Not yet active till we cross 8158[14:39]Shai : I feel one leg down to 808-0 if we stay below 8158 and then up to 8200[14:39]Shai : But if we cross 8158 now then shorts will cover[14:39]Shai : one leg down to 8080 or 8100 pending[14:40]Anay : ok[14:41]Mandar : Shai , as usual you are spot on :-). And you guys should congratulate me for making that wild guess:-)[14:41]r m : @Mandar, Congrats man 🙂[14:42]Mandar : haha…[14:42]r m : Now I am looking for the guy who made the wild guess of 7850 😀[14:43]Mandar : look it makes prediction so easier 🙂[14:43]r m : lol[14:43]Shai : Mandar 🙂[14:44]Shai : It’s not like that – it looks good always in hindsight – but I am more conservative and wait for the view to match with orderflow data[14:44]Mandar : yes boss.[14:45]Shai : If the market would have gone below 7944 F today I would have forgotten everything and traded for that 7850[14:46]Shai : Today’s move is backed by strength coming back in BNF[14:46]Shai : OI data should show about 500- 6000 new contracts[14:46]Shai : 5000- 6000[14:47]Shai : Just to add – you are as good as your last trade in this market[14:47]Shai : and everyone gets humbled[14:47]r m : 🙂[14:47]Mandar : Shai, i got in at 8030 levels as suggested by you.[14:48]Shai : good 🙂[14:53]Shai : 16219 BNF[14:57]Kathir : @Shai usd/inr below 60.90 will it touch 60.70[14:58]Shai : yes[14:58]Shai : Ordder flow is not as strong as price action would make us believe[14:59]Kathir : ok thanks[14:59]Mandar : Shai now 8150 still imp. level.?[14:59]Shai : and we are not going above 8158 today[14:59]Shai : so I think 8080 first then 8200[14:59]Mandar : ok[15:00]r m : @Shai, it happens very frequently like this on trend days – poor OF and poorer contra traders![15:00]Shai : yes[15:01]Shai : so the reset of trend day is also there[15:01]r m : ok[15:01]r m : the liquidity providers also need to reset their inventory, they must be getting horribly short on days like today[15:01]Shai : if w edip now to 8080 – 8095 we will see all that blue coming back[15:02]r m : ok[15:03]Shai : yes the algos are all the pro shops[15:03]Shai : since we had quite a few we should watch their OI today[15:03]r m : ok[15:05]Shai : 25 mins to go and cvol of 14.25[15:06]Shai : remember I mentioned on that Mon trend down day that 12 million was not enough[15:06]Shai : 16 million in NF today is a good vol[15:06]r m : ok[15:06]Shai : 18 is very good[15:07]Shai : we should get to 16 is those cover orders come in next 10 mins[15:08]Mandar : at 8152 expiry it will be 200+[15:10]Kathir : at last bnf shifted its dpoc[15:10]r m : better late then never![15:10]Kathir : yeah[15:17]Shai : BNf not crossing 230[15:18]Kathir : shai buy pe’s now for tomrw or wait fr morning open?[15:19]Shai : Buy at open tom if we are below highs of today[15:19]Shai : there is blue coming at close[15:19]Kathir : ok thanks[15:23]Shai : 16330 tom[15:23]Shai : 16150 is sl[15:23]Shai : can also abuy abv 16230 at open[15:23]Kathir : ok[15:25]r m : 16300CE should reach 141 @ 16300 tomorrow and 78 @ 16150 SL,[15:26]Shai : ok[15:26]Shai : thanks[15:26]r m : welcome[15:27]Kathir : thanks RM ge[15:27]Kathir : @rm first you give 16150 for us[15:27]r m : that is a better way 🙂[15:28]Kathir : 🙂[15:30]Sumit : good bye everyone[15:30]Shai : Bye all[15:30]Shai : Have a nice evening[15:30]r m : Thanks and bye all, have a great evening[15:30]Kathir : thanks and bye all..have a nice eve 🙂[15:30]Mandar : bye all[15:30]Chiranthan : Bye all[15:35]Anay : bye all[15:36]Amit J : shai can you please explain[15:36]Amit J : how to track failure acution[15:48]Shai : explained here- http://vtrender.com/of-failed-auctions-and-revisits-4/