Short USD/JPY - slumps further on cards if it breaches “115.750”

From February to mid-May, USD/JPY traded in a narrow range between 118 and 122. Yet, given the broad USD firmness supported by heightening hopes for the Fed hikes, USD/JPY broke this range in late-May, and on June 5, the firm US May non-farm payrolls led the USD/JPY to reach 125.86 which has been the high of the year of 2015.

After that, however, USD/JPY sharply declined on BoJ Governor Kuroda's comment saying that "JPY real effective exchange rate is already very weak" when the USD/JPY was sitting around mid-124. The pair declined to mid-120 in early July, before rebounding to 125-handle again in early-August.

We are bearish on this pair in long run, speculators should not see upswings beyond 118.854.

Currently we could foresee all signs of attempts to test supports at 115.750 regions if at all it has to show some bounces but on a long-term perspective, the non-directional trend is now slightly sensing weakness that has lasted for almost 1 year (see grey price behavior chart that has remained in the range of 115.750 - 125.856).

It has broken below a strong support at 118.854 decisively with shooting star pattern and massive volumes to build new bearish atmosphere. In worst case scenario if it breaches these levels then 121.517 is the next certain juncture to pull back southwards.

While USD/JPY's uptrend is contracted into narrow range, other oscillating indicators shown a clear convergence to the previous puzzling swings in sideway trend; for now bearish sensation is piling up although interim upswings cannot be disregarded.

Massive volumes build up on every price decline and volumes shrinkage on attempt of bouncing (see grey shaded areas), this would mean that upswings are rejected by bulls and bears are active to grab the downswings sentiments.

Most likely and alternative scenarios: Immediate strong resistance is seen at 118.854 but more interest is observed to remain below support at 115.750.