Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (35)

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (35)

While a majority of Palestinians supports holding local elections and while a majority supports the two-state solution, an overwhelming majority opposes the proximity talks in the absence of a settlement freeze in East Jerusalem and the popularity and legitimacy of the president weaken in light of corruption reports and in light of the ending of his electoral term

4-6 March 2010

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 4 and 6 March 2010. The poll was conducted after the PA announcement regarding the holding of local elections in July 2010, the leveling of corruption charges against senior PA officials by a former Palestinian intelligence official, publication of reports about the Egyptian construction of an underground iron barrier along the Egyptian borders with Rafah, and reports of an American proposal to conduct proximity talks between Israel and the Palestinians. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the first quarter of 2010 show a limited setback for president Abbas and his Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and a limited improvement in the standing of Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas. The change might have been caused by the end of the electoral term of the president and by press reports that revealed cases of corruption and scandals inside the PA. These reports have been seen, and most importantly have been seen as credible, by a majority of Palestinians. Despite this setback for the PA and Abbas, a majority of Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank, supports the holding of local elections even before reconciliation and even if Hamas boycotts the elections. Findings also show that the top most important Palestinian priority today is the reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This finding serves Fateh’s interests very well as a large percentage of Palestinians believe that while a Fateh electoral victory would strengthen the chances for reunifications, a large percentage believes that a Hamas victory would consolidate separation.

Findings also indicate widespread opposition to the American proposal to conduct Palestinian-Israeli proximity talks with US mediation but without a freeze on settlement construction in East Jerusalem. But the opposition to the resumption of peace talks does not mean an opposition to a peace settlement based on a two-state solution. A majority does indeed support the Arab Peace Initiative and prefers the two-state solution over other solutions such as a one state solution or one based on a Palestinian-Israeli confederation. Moreover, half of the public supports mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people. But findings show a strong pessimistic tendency with regard to the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel during the next five years. Moreover, the overwhelming majority believes that Israel’s long term goal is to annex the occupied Palestinian territories and to expel its Palestinian population or deny them their political rights. A similar large majority expresses worry that it or family members would be hurt by Israelis in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or homes demolished. Increased Palestinian perception of threat leads in this poll to an increase in the support for armed attacks against Israelis despite the fact that a majority is still opposed to it.

(1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

A majority of 54% supports the holding of local elections in the West Bank even without reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas and even if Hamas decides to boycott the elections.

A majority believes that recent reports about corruption are accurate and 50% do not trust the committee established by PA president to investigate the case of an alleged corruption and a video tape involving the director of his office and the role allegedly played by the Palestinian Intelligence Department in the matter; three quarters do not want to see a PA security service involved in such activity.

If new presidential elections took place today, Abbas would receive 50% and Ismail Haniyeh 40%. But if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former receives 63% and the latter 32%.

If new parliamentary elections in which all factions participate were to take place today, Fateh receives 42%, Hamas 28%, all other lists combined 11%, and 19% say they are undecided

11% say conditions in the Gaza Strip are good or very good while 31% say conditions in the West Bank are good or very good; but perception of personal and family safety and security stands at 70% in the Gaza Strip compared to 55% in the West Bank

Performance of the Haniyeh’s government is seen as good or very good by 39% and performance of Fayyad’s government is seen as good or very good by 42%; 47% are satisfied with the performance of Abbas and 50% are not satisfied

The top priority for Palestinians is the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip followed by ending Gaza siege and opening its crossings

15% believe that unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will soon be restored, 31% believe separation is permanent and 47% believe that unity will be restored but only after a long time

Findings show readiness in the West Bank for the resumption of the electoral process while the Gaza Strip remains opposed to elections: 54% support and 41% oppose the holding of local elections in the West Bank next July even if reconciliation talks have not succeeded by then to unify the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Support for holding local elections is higher in the West Bank, reaching 60%, and lower in the Gaza Strip, standing at 46%. If local elections were held in the West Bank on the stated date of July 2010, a majority of the West Bankers (53%) would participate even if Hamas boycotts the elections and even if reconciliation was not achieved by that date. 43% of the West Bankers say they will not participate in the local elections. Respondents in Gaza were not asked about participation in the local elections.

Support for holding local elections increases in rural areas (63%) compared to cities (53%) and refugee camps (52%). It also increases among men (56%) compared to women (52%), among the somewhat religious (59%) compared to the religious (48%), among supporters of the peace process (60%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (36%), among holders of BA degree (57%) compared to illiterates (43%), among employees (61%) compared to housewives (51%), among those working in the public sector (72%) compared to those working in the private sector (53%), among those who intend to vote for Fateh (78%) and the undecided (59%) compared to those who intend to vote for Hamas (31%) and for third parties (48%), and among those less than 40 years of age (58%) compared to those over 40 (48%).

But if support for holding elections is an indication of PA legitimacy, findings show an indicator in the opposite direction: corruption. Findings show that 72% have heard about reports of scandals and charges of corruption in the Palestinian Authority or saw a video tape mentioned in those reports and more than two thirds of them (69%) believe those reports and charges to be accurate while 24% do not. In this regard, only 41% have confidence and 50% do not have confidence in the investigation committee established by the PA president to examine these reports of scandals and charges of corruption. Moreover, 50% say they believe and 38% say they do not believe that the PA Intelligence Department was behind the filming of the video tape mentioned in the reports and charges of corruption. About three quarters (74%) reject or strongly reject allowing PA security services to photograph or film Palestinians in embarrassing situations, as the case may have been in the video tape mentioned in the reports and 22% accept such a role for the security services.

The percentage of those who reject or strongly reject allowing PA security services to engage in such activity increases in the Gaza Strip (77%) compared to the West Bank (73%), among women (77%) compared to men (71%), among supporters of the peace process (77%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (64%), among those working in the public sector (80%) compared to those working in the private sector (72%), and among supporters of Fateh (82%) and third parties (84%) compared to supporters of Hamas (66%).

If new presidential elections are held today, Abbas would receive the vote of 50% of the voters (compared to 54% last December) and Haniyeh would receive 40% (compared to 38% last December). But if the presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 63% (compared to 67% last December) and the latter would receive 32% (compared to 28% last December). Most popular figures selected by the public as a possible vice president are Marwan Barghouti (selected by 30% of the public), Ismail Haniyeh (19%), Salam Fayyad (14%) Mustafa Barghouti (11%), and Saeb Erekat (5%). If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 72% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 42% say they would vote for Fateh and 28% say they would vote for Hamas, 11% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 19% are undecided. Three months ago Fateh received 43%, Hamas 27%, third parties combined 14%, and the undecided stood at 17%.

11% say conditions in the Gaza Strip are good or very good and 73% say conditions are bad or very bad. By contrast, 31% say conditions in the West Bank are good or very good and 36% say they are bad or very bad. Similarly, 30% say conditions of democracy and human rights under the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip are good or very good. By contrast, 37% say these conditions in the PA under president Abbas are good or very good. 61% say their security and safety and that of their families are assured. In the West Bank, perception of personal and family safety and security stands at 55% and in the Gaza Strip, perception of safety and security stands today at 70%. Despite the difference in the evaluation of condition in the West Bank compared to the Gaza Strip, evaluation of the performance of the governments of Haniyeh and Fayyad does not seem to reflect it. Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government reaches 39% and positive evaluation of the performance of Salam Fayyad’s government stands at 42%. In the Gaza Strip, 44% say the performance of Haniyeh’s government is good or very good while only 36% of West Bankers say the same. Positive evaluation of the Fayyad government reaches 40% in the Gaza Strip and 43% in the West Bank. 47% are satisfied with the performance of president Abbas and 50% are not satisfied. Moreover, 28% believe that Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one and only 26% say that Abu Mazin’s and Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one, and 31% say both governments are illegitimate. Three months ago, 26% said Haniyeh’s government was the legitimate one and 30% said Fayyad’s government was the legitimate one. Moreover, 53% say PA president Abbas has lost his legitimacy when his term ended and 41% disagree with that. Similarly, 53% say the Palestinian Legislative Council has lost its legitimacy after its term ended and 39% disagree with that.

The largest percentage (59%) views the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as the top most important Palestinian priority today, 24% believe the top priority is the opening of border crossings, and 17% believe the top priority is the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip. In this regard, if Hamas wins the next elections, 61% say such outcome would lead to the consolidation of the siege and international boycott while 12% say it would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott. But if Fateh wins the next elections, only 9% say such outcome would lead to the consolidation of the siege while 57% say it would lead to the lifting of the siege. Moreover, if Hamas wins the next elections, such outcome would lead to the consolidation of the separation between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in the eyes of 46% of the public while only 19% believe it would lead to consolidation of unity. But if Fateh wins the next elections, only 27% believe this would consolidate separation and 32% believe it would strengthen unity.

31% say unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will not be restored and two separate entities will develop while only 15% say unity will be reestablished soon. But the largest percentage (47%) says unity will eventually be restored but after a long time. In this regard, only 14% say Hams is responsible for the split and 12% say Fateh is responsible. Almost two thirds (64%) say both are responsible for the continued split. Moreover, findings show that 24% of the public believes that Hamas is responsible for the failure to hold elections on time and 12% believe Fateh is the one responsible for that. But the largest percentage, 31%, blames Israel.

(2) Iron underground wall on borders with Egypt

35% believe that Egypt’s goal from building its underground iron wall on its borders with Rafah is to pressure Hamas to sign the reconciliation paper while 28% believe the goal to be the protection of Egypt’s security against smugglers; but 31% believe the goal is to contribute to the siege on the Gaza Strip

Gazans are less likely than West Bankers to suspect the motivation of Egypt in building the underground wall

The Gaza Strip differs from the West Bank in its evaluation of the function of the underground iron barrier being built by Egypt on its Rafah borders. Gazans are more likely than West Bankers to show understanding of Egypt’s goals. Findings show that the public is split on its views regarding Egypt’s goal: 35% believe the aim is to pressure Hamas to sign the reconciliation declaration (43% in the Gaza Strip and 30% in the West Bank), 31% believe the aim is to contribute to the siege of the Gaza Strip (25% in the Gaza Strip and 35% in the West Bank), and 28% believe the aim is to protect the security of Egypt from smugglers (29% in the Gaza Strip and 27% in the West Bank).

Percentage of those who believe the goal behind the underground barrier is to contribute to the siege increases among men (33%) compared to women (29%), among the religious (35%) compared to the somewhat religious (27%), among those opposed to the peace process (46%) compared to supporters of the peace process (26%), among the illiterates (33%) compared to the holders of BA degree (24%), among those who work in the private sector (35%) compared to those who work in the public sector (26%), among those whose age is over 50 years (43%) compared to those whose age is between 18-22 years (32%), and among supporters of Hamas (40%) and third parties (39%) compared to supporters of Fateh (20%).

(3) Peace Process

In the absence of an Israeli freeze on settlement construction in East Jerusalem, only 26% support, and 73% oppose, Palestinian participation in the US proposed proximity talks

60% support and 37% oppose the Arab Peace Initiative

57% prefer a two-state solution while 29% prefer a one state solution and 26% prefer a Palestinian-Israeli confederation

50% support and 49% oppose a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after a peace agreement has been reached

But 71% believe that chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are slim or non existent and 28% believe the chances are medium or high

Palestinians have no confidence in Israel’s long term aspirations: 63% believe it seeks to annex the occupied territories and expel its population; 18% believe it seeks to annex the occupied territories while denying its population their political rights; 16% believe it seeks to withdraw from the occupied Arab territories or part of it after guaranteeing its security

77% are worried or very worried that they or a family member might be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or home demolished

Support for armed attacks against Israelis stands at 47% and opposition at 50%

Findings show widespread opposition, reaching 73%, to return to negotiations with Israel as long as settlement construction continues in East Jerusalem, even if talks are indirect as the US proposed proximity talks. Support for the proximity talks in the absence of a settlement freeze in East Jerusalem stands at 26%. Opposition for the proximity talks increases among those opposed to the peace process (91%) compared to those who support the peace process (66%), among those whose age is over 40% (75%) compared to those whose age is between 18-22 years (66%), among supporters of Hamas (87%) compared to supporters ofFateh (59%).

Opposition to the proximity talks does not mean an opposition to a peace settlement based on a two-state solution. Findings show that 60% support and 37% oppose the Arab Peace Initiative calling for a two-state solution and for normalization of relations between Israel and all Arab countries after the Israeli withdrawal to the lines of June 1967. Moreover, a majority prefers the two-state solution over other solutions such as the one state solution or the one based on a Palestinian-Israeli confederation. Support for the two state solution stands at 57% while support for the one state solution stands at 29% and support for a Palestinian-Israeli confederation stands at 26%. Findings also show that 50% support and 49% oppose mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after the settlement of all issues of the conflict and the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Preference for the two-state solution is higher in the West Bank (59%) compared to the Gaza Strip (54%), among men (60%) compared to women (55%), among the somewhat religious (60%) compared to the religious (53%), among supporters of the peace process (66%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (33%), among employees (65%) and merchants (67%) compared to students (40%), among those who work in the public sector (67%) compared to those who work in the private sector (59%), among those over 50 years old (68%) compared to those between 18-22 years of age (44%), and among supporters of Fateh (73%) and third parties (62%) compared to supporters of Hamas (38%).

Despite the majority support for the two-state solution, the overwhelming majority (71%) believes the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years are slim or non existent while 28% believe the chances are medium or high. Moreover, the overwhelming majority (81%) believes that Israel’s long term aspiration is to annex Palestinian territories and expel the Palestinian population (as 63% believe) or annex the territories to Israel and deny Palestinians their political rights (as 18% believe). Percentage of those who believe that Israel’s aspiration is to annex the Palestinian territories and expel the population or deny them their rights stood at 76% in our last poll three months ago. The percentage of those who believe that Israel seeks to guarantee its security and withdraw from the territories or from part of it stands at 16%. Furthermore, findings show that the overwhelming majority (77%) is worried or very worried that it or members of its family might be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land might be confiscated or home demolished by Israel. Only 23% say they are not worried or not worried at all.

Finally, findings show a noticeable increase in the percentage of those who support armed attacks against Israelis inside Israel, standing today at 47% compared to 43% in our previous poll conducted about three months ago.... Full Report