Penny for your thoughts

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Carnegie Europe: Marc Pierini is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his
research focuses on developments in the Middle East and Turkey from a
European perspective.

"Turkey’s foreign policy is dominated by a heated nationalist narrative, which in turn has triggered military operations in Syria. At the roots of these developments are several threats to Turkey—some very real, some perceived, others imagined—and the ways in which the political leadership uses them.

But beyond the immediate horizon, littered with hard-to-digest news and a couple of unthinkable risks, lies a different set of issues on which Turkey has little leverage. The real world around Turkey is so complex—Iran, Israel, Russia, and the United States are waging battles out there—that it may warrant a sober look from Ankara.

For now, Turkey faces many short-term hurdles.

Turkey’s EU accession has in practice been blocked by Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands. The European Parliament has just adopted a new resolution criticizing Turkey’s human rights record. A forthcoming review of EU financial support to Turkey will likely end up with a substantial downsizing of assistance. On March 26, the Bulgarian prime minister will host Turkey’s president and the presidents of the European Council and the European Commission in Varna, where the words of EU leaders are expected to be firm. In April, the commission’s latest progress report on Turkey is also expected to be very critical of the country’s rule of law situation.

Then there are developments in New York.

A U.S. court will issue its verdict in the Zarrab-Halkbank financial crimes case around mid-April. U.S. Treasury fines, thought to be in the billions of dollars, against Turkish state-run Halkbank for violating sanctions against Iran could follow. In addition, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control could exclude the bank from operating in U.S. dollars if it were designated as a foreign sanctions evader.

Closer to home, a fierce narrative is in train: the possibility of a direct conflict between Turkish and American forces in northern Syria. American think-tanks and media are abuzz with scenarios of a potential clash. A military confrontation between NATO’s two largest armies would cross into the realm of the previously unthinkable and, if an understanding is not negotiated, could prove irrecoverable. Diplomatic efforts are currently underway.

Also unthinkable is the possibility of the Turkish navy disrupting again the Cypriot government’s offshore gas exploration.

Whatever happens in Afrin, Manbij, Kobane, or off the coast of Cyprus, there is a much bigger game playing out around Turkey.

The stakes in the Syria, especially its eventual post-war settlement, are immensely higher than the fate of ISIS, the creation (or not) of an autonomous Syrian Kurdish region in a post-war Syria, or the links between the PKK and the YPG. They revolve around two fundamental issues: the balance of power between Russia and the United States in the entire Middle East region; and the potential for war between Iran and Israel.In the seventy-three years since the end of World War II, the Middle East’s security landscape remained relatively unchanged: the United States was the dominant regional actor and Russia a relatively minor one. Israel was created in 1948 and consistently labelled an “enemy of Islam” by Iran since 1979—but the two never fought a war against each other.

Since 2015, however, momentous changes have been engineered by Russia and Iran in the region, with Turkey’s help.

By rescuing the Assad regime with Iranian support, Russia has drastically changed some of the key parameters of the post-World War II equation in the Middle East: for the first time ever, Moscow has set up a sizeable air force base in the region (in Khmeimin, an extension of Lattakia’s civilian airport in the Syrian coast); it opens and closes the skies of western Syria as it chooses; it is enlarging its naval resupply base within the commercial port of Tartus; and it has driven a diplomatic effort—supported by Iran and Turkey within the so-called “Astana peace process” and Sochi talks—to impose its brand of political settlement for Syria.

Meanwhile, in the process of shoring up the Assad regime, Iran and Hezbollah have also set foot in western Syria. They have established bases and substantially upgraded their arsenals in the country to harass Israel, in particular by building small-scale factories to locally produce drones and missiles, thereby avoiding the hassle of air and sea transport from Iran. Recent incidents between Israel, Iran, and Syria are a testimony to this evolution.

In the face of these developments, the United States is now holding about one third of Syrian territory north and east of the Euphrates River through a combination of proxy fighters—the Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Syrian Kurdish YPG—and its own special forces. This, in essence, locks its position into future—and “real,” as opposed to the meetings in Astana and Sochi—negotiations about Syria’s future. At stake are the destruction of ISIS, the nature of the Syrian regime, local government composition, the right for foreign powers to maintain forces in the country, and ultimately—albeit indirectly—the security of Israel.

For its own reasons, Turkey has chosen to lend a hand to this geopolitical reshuffle: diplomatically, by participating in the Astana and Sochi talks; financially, by sending money to Iran—to the tune of several billion dollars—through the fully-documented “Zarrab-Halkbank scheme;” and militarily, by issuing threats to U.S. troops in Syria in the hope of pushing them back.

This bigger game playing out around Turkey is not made of somber conspiracies, as Ankara would like to convince its population. Rather, it is the theater of a massive transformation of the Middle East—to the benefit of Russia and Iran. It is as momentous as 1979 was for Tehran. The course that Turkish leaders will choose to follow in the Syrian war will have ominous, long-term consequences not only for their country but for the rest of the world, too"

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

A political or military act orchestrated in such a way
that it appears to have been carried out by a party that is not in fact
responsible.

As of this writing- 12:00 pm EST, I do NOT believe that any Syrian loyalist militias entered AfrinI do suspect that the PKK/YPG are attempting to and/or may have brought reinforcements into the area under false pretenses.The YPG/PKK may have thought they could mislead Turkey by claiming their reinforcements were allies of Damascus. It seems apparent Ankara & Damascus have an understanding regarding the Afrin operationAs yours truly had stated yesterday I see no reason for anyone loyal to Syria to aid the annexing Kurds who are already supported fully by the US.

The convoluted saga of Damascus aiding the YPG/PKK in Afrin continues to be presented as fact.Is it?I'm less then certain at this time.

You may recall that the US wanted Turkey to stop their operation?U.S Wants Turkey to Restrain Their Operation in Syria Turkey has not complied.Tillerson then went to Turkey : Tillerson's Sweet Nothing's to Turkey. Israel & Syria. Lavrov insights Where he made offers he had NO intention of keeping. Turkey most likely made clear their intention to secure the border. Oh dear what is Usrael to do? Intent on balkanizing both Syria and Turkey.Cue a false flag
The arrival of alleged Syrian loyalists, who may attack Turkey, offers up the perfect opportunity for the US to gain the upper hand in the area. Have Turkey restrain itself. Etc.,

I mentioned a number of potential possibilities for this move over at syrian perspective..

Penny

I’m
actually wondering if the Kurds were looking to bait Damascus into a
move which would have seen the USrael step into the fray to
1- save their pkk/ypg allies
2- intervene against a wayward NATO ally Turkey (cause USrael
doesn’t want to the Turks to impede their Israel 2.0 creation) Much like
many syper participants
3- both feet in the door in western syria- aiding the PKK/YPG in
connecting their cantons across northern syria- bad news for Syria. bad
news for Turkey

Penny

I
had also thought another possibility would be for YPG/PKK to allow PMU
in to Afrin- stage a ‘chemical attack’ and count on the US and France to
take action- which is another way of baiting Damascus with the same 3 point result I’d already mentioned.

Also people have to realize all PMU's are "not the same"

Example, as mentioned this at Syper's, Sadr's militia in Iraq, is a PMU (Popular Mobilization Unit) with very obvious ties to the US. Sadr and his militia are coopted.

The
stances recently taken by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in West,
East and South Kurdistan point to a change, whether tactical or not, in
PKK policy. One could say it is a turning from Russia and Assad towards
the US.

The
operations conducted by the Hashd al-Shaabi forces in south Shingal show
that the PKK vacated some places there which were taken by the Hashd
forces

This is at a time when the Kurdistan
Region, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s government and coalition
forces have demanded that the PKK leave Shingal, but the group is still
defying these requests. The question is: Why can’t or do the PKK not
want to leave the territory controlled by the Peshmerga, but voluntarily
leaves areas under Hashd al-Shaabi control.

The US
administration has publicly announced arms deliveries have now reached
the Peoples’ Protection Units in Syria (YPG) which Washington knows is
an extension of the PKK.

A
Shingal Protection Units (YBS) commander in Shingal, a group affiliated
with the PKK, has revealed that they voluntarily handed over some Yezidi
places to the Hashd al-Shaabi.

Monday, February 19, 2018

The convoluted saga of Damascus aiding the YPG/PKK in Afrin continues to be presented as fact.Is it?I'm less then certain at this time.

If Damascus was to aid the YPG/PKK what did they get in exchange? It's sensible that if an agreement was made Damascus would have had to gain something for the assistance.
I don't believe the Assad government is a government of fools and idiots.

The YPG/PKK is keeping Syria's army and it's people/government away from most of their oil and water assets in the east, yet, I'm supposed to believe that the Assad government is going to run along and aid YPG/PKK in exchange for nothing?

That idea troubles me. The whole narrative for this story came from YPG/PKK themselves. It started yesterday.... And yes, I'm aware that SANA has a report from someone on the ground in Aleppo that this is set to occur-

According to the official, (named above) Ankara doesn't believe these reports, adding that Turkey didn't have any proof yet.However, as the deputy foreign minister specified, if the Syrian
armed forces entered Afrin to support Kurdish militants, this would lead
to a catastrophe, giving a green light to the country's split.

A spokesperson for the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) on
Monday denied reports of a deal with the Syrian government to enter
Afrin where a Turkish military incursion is ongoing.
Speaking to Kurdistan 24 during a live broadcast, YPG spokesperson
Nouri Mahmoud said the Kurdish forces had not signed an agreement with
the Syrian regime to enter Afrin but had only called on the army to
protect the borders.

“Our forces have not reached an agreement. We have only called on the
Syrian army to defend the borders from Turkey’s assault,” Mahmoud
clarified. “There has been no agreement with the Syrian government for
the handing over of Afrin.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has held a telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in Syria. Special emphasis was placed on ways of enhancing Astana format cooperation, the Kremlin’s press-service said

Russian
President Vladimir Putin has held a telephone conversation with his
Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in
Syria. Special emphasis was placed on ways of enhancing Astana format
cooperation, the Kremlin’s press-service said.

More:http://tass.com/politics/990749

"In discussing the situation in Syria special attention was paid to ways of further enhancing cooperation in the Astana format. The readiness was confirmed for tight coordination of efforts by Russia, Turkey and Iran for the sake of achieving effective operation of the de-escalation zones and advancing the political process in line with the agreements achieved by the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi," the Kremlin’s press-service said.

Putin and Erdogan touched upon the situation in northwestern Syria, including the Turkish military operation near Afrin.

Also, they noted "positive trends in Russian-Turkish cooperation" and agreed on a number of contacts at different levels in the near future

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Tillerson went to Turkey. He said he'd work on the Manbij situation... "work on it"Yah, yah! There will be a 'working group" which will begin working no later then mid march- That's a whole month away............

Manbij: "It's geographically important. That's why the US has left a troop
presence in Manbij to ensure that that city remains under control of our
allied forces and does not fall into the hands of others," Tillerson
said. "So that will be a topic of discussion in terms of how we go
forward to ensure Manbij remains within our control because of its
strategic importance."

He said the working group on Manbij will begin work no later than mid-March.

If you've been a long term reader here you know that the US has been paying lip service to the Turks regarding Manbij for a long, long time now. Going back to the Obama administration!

Çavusoglu said:"The U.S. and the President
Barack Obama personally promised that PYD members in the SDF would be
withdrawn to the east of the Euphrates River. Now the U.S. must keep its
promise, and we expect them to. We are maintaining our communications
regarding this matter."Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavusoglu reminded
U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday that he had personally made a
promise to withdraw the Syrian PKK affiliate Democratic Union Party's
(PYD) armed People's Protection Units (YPG) to the east of the Euphrates
once the Manbij operation

No reason to believe US sweet talk regarding Manbij all this time later- I don't believe it. Quite certain Turkish leadership isn't buying the LIE either. Why would they?

US-Turkey relations were frayed over a number of issues recently, namely
the US' continued support for the YPG and the US troops in Manbij in
support of YPG. The US promised Turkey it would withdraw the YPG from
the city after Daesh was defeated, but it has been one-and-a-half years
and the YPG is still in Manbij.

YPG is the Syrian affiliate of the PKK,
which is designated as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and EU
and has been fighting the Turkish state for more than 30 years.

Key Points The IDF said it destroyed Syrian SAM systems after an F-16I was shot down on 10 February An important S-200 complex appeared to be undamaged after the engagement

A map released by the IDF on 11 February shows Iranian and Syrian targets that it said were hit the day before in retaliation for a UAV incursion and the shooting down of an Israeli F-16I fighter. It implies that both S-200 (SA-5) sites in southwest Syria were hit. (Israel Defense Forces)A map released by the IDF on 11 February shows Iranian and Syrian targets that it said were hit the day before in retaliation for a UAV incursion and the shooting down of an Israeli F-16I fighter. It implies that both S-200 (SA-5) sites in southwest Syria were hit. (Israel Defense Forces)Analysis

Satellite imagery showing one of two S-200 (SA-5) long-range air defence systems in southwest Syria was not neutralised on 10 February raises questions about the effectiveness of Israeli airstrikes on that day.

Link-The United States Could Be on the Verge of Fighting Turkey in Syria

I personally believe the US and Turkey are and have already been fighting in Syria. Mentioned that last year.. I just love the admission included in this piece that the US supports terrorists

This means sometimes we support terrorists, which usually have turned
out to be al Qaeda affiliates. This is because al Qaeda shares an
interest with the U.S.: both of us want to destroy the Islamic State. (it's not quite that clear cut, except the US does support terrorists)

Turkey has been helping us fight the Islamic State, but has also been fighting our Kurdish allies in that fight. (Kurdish "allies" who are actually PKK terrorists, who also intermingle with ISIS which still means.... the US supports terrorists)

Russia has been helping Assad fight the rebels, who again are
backed by the U.S.(and the US supports terrorists, again!) military. Our confrontations with Russia have become
much more frequent. In fact, Russian military contractors might have
been part of a recent attack on U.S. military advisers in Syria.

Iran has also backed Assad with weapons. It’s fighting a proxy
war with the U.S., and, yes, Israel, which has recently launched attacks
into Syria.
Iraq is fighting the Islamic State, too, but Iran is also
influencing that fight and doing its best to destabilize the Iraqi
government and army.Russia and Turkey have an uneasy alliance, mostly because of oil
resources and transport. Turkey controls the Bosporus Strait, which
connects Russian Black Sea ports to the rest of the world. (talked that point up incessantly)

Last December a Turkish citizen(was it a Kurdish Turkish citizen?) assassinated the Russian
Ambassador to Turkey, in Ankara. He said he did so in the name of Syria.Turkey just wants the Kurds to go away. We want the Kurds to stay strong.

But Turkey also doesn’t want the Islamic State carrying out any
more attacks there. Last year on New Year’s Eve an IS-inspired attacker
shot up a nightclub in Istanbul.
Russia props up Iran’s nuclear program. It needs cheap oil from Iran, and really from all of these places.

So it seems that in all of this, a U.S.-Turkey conflict, a direct
confrontation between two allies, would complete some sort of weird
circuit. The region, obviously, can’t sustain that, because things are
bad enough there. The risk of escalation is high, as is the risk of
misunderstanding leading to greater conflict. The more that people start
shooting at each other, the more difficult it becomes to tell who’s on
your side.At this point, the United States is looking pretty lonely. At least we’ve got a reality show host at the helm.

The US isn't looking lonely at all... they're looking imperial. And dangerously irrational.

"They [the United States] seem to be seeking to isolate a vast part of the Syrian territory from the rest of the country in violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," he said.

"A US taskforce and other units are illegally staying in Syria, without any invitation from Damascus (the legitimate government) or a United Nations Security Council mandate," he added.Lavrov speaking some more

Washington has been staking on Syrian Kurds, supplying Kurdish groups with weapons and ignoring Turkey’s position, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the Euronews television channel on Friday.

Turkey’s position, in his words, is that some of Kurd groups operating in Syria are branches of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which is listed as a terrorist organization in a range of countries. "Turkey has repeatedly said it would do its utmost to prevent the Kurds from taking control of the border between Syria and Turkey," he said. "Despite that, the Americans have been arming, I would say, heavily arming, Kurdish units totally ignoring Turkey’s position. From the very beginning of their activities in Syria, the Americans have been staking on Kurds and turning a deaf ear to Turkey’s protests."

Exactly! You may recall Tillerson's other lie was that America hadn't 'heavily armed' the PKK so they didn't have anything worth taking back from them..... Suuuurrreeeeee. Gee I wonder how it is the PKK/YPG are shooting down helicopters and destroying tanks ? Must be all those AK's? (facetious) At least Lavrov is giving us the straight goods here!

"A couple of months ago, the United States suddenly announced its plans to establish 30,000-strong, mostly Kurdish, force to safeguard the border security zone between Syria and Turkey," Lavrov said. "Later on, they made clumsy attempt to disavow their own statements that facts indicate the this disavowal did not change their intentions. Then, Turkey announced what it announced (on January 20, the Turkish military launched the Olive Branch Operation near Syria’s Afrin, home to about 1.5 million Kurds and refugees from other Syrian regions)."

According to the Russian top diplomat, Turkey’s operation in Afrin was no big surprise for him. "Washington was simply turning a deaf ear to Ankara’s repeated warnings," he added

Recall me saying I couldn't understand all this claimed surprise at Turkey's move?One can never be certain, of course(unless privy to insider info) but to think Turkey was never going to secure their own border??? Makes no sense.

"The US military will look into the
possibility of supporting from the air the Afrin Kurds’ advances in
northern Syria against Daesh, Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman Col.
Steve Warren told reporters on Wednesday.

MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. Washington is seeking to
isolate and cut off a vast part of Syria’s territory, Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the Euronews television
channel on Friday.

"They [the United States] seem to be seeking to isolate a vast part
of the Syrian territory from the rest of the country in violation of
Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," he said.
"A US taskforce and other units are illegally staying in Syria,
without any invitation from Damascus (the legitimate government) or a
United Nations Security Council mandate," he added.
"Obviously, the United States has some strategy, which, I think, is
geared to keep its military presence in Syria forever," he noted. "They
are seeking to do the same in Iraq and in Afghanistan, in spite of all
their previous promises."

Friday, February 16, 2018

That said, it was was almost predictable that the PKK/YPG would make this claim

After Tillerson's visit- where nothing was resolved between NATO allies this was predictable!Looked as if Turkey was making advances in cleaning house of terrorists on their border Factor in the distraction of yet another school shooting.Macron's constant threatening. The US continuously playing the chemical weapons card...With an ice pack tied to my carpal tunnel arm...here we go

"Reports have surfaced that a Turkish chemical weapon attack in the
Northern Syrian city of Afrin has hospitalized six civilians. The
Turkish military is doing battle with US-backed Syrian Kurdish militias
over control of the border city.The Kurds in question are members of the People's Protection Units
(YPG), a militia that formed the bulk of the Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) who have acted as US proxies in Syria.On Tuesday, Turkey accused Kurdish forces of using chemical weapons
against their Syrian allies in the Free Syrian Army, injuring 20.
Although allegations of the use of chemical weapons have been
commonplace during the Syrian Civil War, the Kurds have rarely been
accused of such war crimes.The YPG denied the report, arguing that Ankara and the FSA were
trying to "fabricate a cover for their fiasco in the north of Afrin."
They added that the Turks had launched a chlorine-gas attack against the
Kurds, but hit the FSA instead.The Daily Sabah, an independence Turkish outlet, then reported that
no such chemical attack occured, and the FSA had instead inhaled smoke"

Six men were treated for breathing difficulties in the main hospital
in Afrin in Syria late Friday after shelling by a Turkish-led offensive
on their village, a medical source and a monitor said.

Jiwan Mohammad, the general director of the Afrin hospital, said six
men had arrived to the emergency room with "difficulty breathing,
coughing, and burning all over the body."

"We have treated them and are observing them now. We kept their
clothes for testing," Mohammad told AFP, adding that their symptoms were
in line with exposure to toxic agents.
He said they had arrived in civilian cars from Al-Sheikh Hadid, west of
the town of Afrin, and had told medics there was shelling on their
village.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported that six people were wounded in bombardment on Al-Sheikh Hadid.

"Shelling from either Turkey or allied factions hit Al-Sheikh Hadid
and left six people with enlarged pupils and breathing difficulties,"
Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Inside Syria Media Center has obtained information on the location of U.S. military bases which are illegally located in Syria.

1- Muhammed Faris military base is located in Syria’s
At-Tabqa (28 miles south- west of Raqqa city). Currently, it has
military personnel from the U.S. (22), France (12) commanded by U.S.
Sergeant Scott Suaima. The primary task of the unit is to monitor
government troops’ movement and Kurdish forces in the region, as well as
training the Kurds.

The second U.S. military base is also located in Syria’s At-Tabqa. It
has servicemen fromCanada (12), Austria (17), and the U.S. (44)
commanded by Erik Butnar from the U.S. Marine Corps. Its main task is to
coordinate the activities of the U.S.-led Coalition in the Governorates
of Raqqa and Al-Hasakah.

3-Another military base, Ain Isa, hosts combatants
from France (35), Britain (35), and the U.S. (73) commanded by Jason
Afrashid. There are also deployed 6 Abrams tanks, artillery and mortars.
The base has a runway strip. The base is used to control the air
situation in Raqqa Governorate with the help of radars, observe and
photograph the activities of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), and to
cooperate with Rumeilan base in Hasakah Governorate.

Of course it's sane. That's why you and I are here. But questioning alone doesn't go far enough.Accepting this reality and then making appropriate changes is key

"The wrong moral to draw from this would be that anyone who sees hidden
power being influenced is crazy. Rather, we should see the Hellyers of
this world as the price we pay for being willing to question the
manifest order and to expose the secretive interest groups who seek to
manipulate the world for their own benefit.

When we dig for the truth,
we flirt with madness. But in a world where hidden power is all too
real, it’s the only sane thing to do."

I don't think digging for truth is flirting with madness-

I do think digging for truth is living in reality, being sane and can be empowering.

Think about this?

War is .....

...THE CONTINUATION OF STATE POLICY, BY OTHER MEANS

.......A POLITICAL ACTIVITY IN WHICH VIOLENCE IS USED TO BEND THE WILL OF YOUR ENEMY TO THAT OF YOUR OWN

Stop being Manipulated by the Elites

For if you [the rulers] suffer your people to be ill-educated, and their manners to be corrupted from their infancy, and then punish them for those crimes to which their first education disposed them, what else is to be concluded from this, but that you first make thieves [outlaws] and then punish them.´ - Sir Thomas More (1478-1535)

Resource: Ukraine Military Marker

How your brain works

“‘Each thought and behavior is embedded within the circuitry of the neurons, and…neuronal activity accompanying or initiating an experience persists in the form of reverberating neuronal circuits, which become more strongly defined with repetition”

Richard Restak

Unshackle YOUR mind

'The most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed'- Steve Biko

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Edward Bernays: Perception Management it is a Reality

"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society,"

"Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. . . . In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons . . . who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind."

About Me

This blog is a place to not only post information that will never see the light of day on the mainstream media, but, also to present alternative perspectives to main stream media information, that most often presents no background, no context, and never questions the information presented.
The name I chose, Penny for your thoughts, is an invitation to readers to share their relevant thoughts on the varying information.