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Odessa on edge on the eve of Victory Day

Paul McGeough

Tense times: a man walks by a giant placard of a seaside scene in the Ukrainian port city of Odessa, which is preparing to commemorate victory in World War II. Photo: AFP

Odessa, Ukraine: On the eve of a milestone weekend in which another chunk of Ukraine’s east could vote to seek annexation by Russia, this Black Sea port will see one of its proudest boasts tested – a tradition of tolerance that permeates Odessa’s cosmopolitan history.

Friday is supposed to be celebrated as Victory Day, the anniversary of Germany’s surrender to the Soviet Union in 1945. But last Friday Odessa chalked up the single bloodiest day since the Ukrainian unrest began in February, when more than 40 died and hundreds were injured – mostly in a mystery inferno that engulfed a city building.

Mindful of the heady cocktail of commemorating old military victories and threats of revenge for last week’s killings, most of them pro-Russian protesters, the city was on edge on Thursday evening.

Grief: an elderly relative is comforted during the funeral of 17-year-old Vadim Papura, who died after jumping out of Odessa's burning trade union building on May 2. Photo: AP

Streets were markedly quiet as a local warned: “For Friday, we have been promised everything, by all sides.”

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Behind the counter in a corner store, a shopkeeper asked: “Aren’t you afraid?” Had she always considered it dangerous to take an evening walk in Odessa’s streets? “Only since May 2,” she replied.

There were reports that both sides in the conflict had cancelled planned Victory Day marches. But the pro-Kiev Council for Civil Security was leaving nothing to chance – because a permit to march had been issued to its pro-Moscow opponents it was ready with a planned network of roadblocks, telephone hotlines and armed militias to guard key buildings.

Rival claims: Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at a Moscow memorial to Odessa's role in World War II. Photo: AFP

Odessa is predominantly Russian speaking, but its historical and cultural ties to Russia are not as strong as in centres further east and the failure of the pro-Russian separatists to take control of the streets here, as they have done in Donetsk and Slaviansk, is read as an effective block on any further westward move by pro-Russian restiveness.

That speculation will be tested by any unrest on Friday. Despite the reported cancellation of formal protests, the city has a full program of Victory Day events that could be cause of provocation for either side.

Friday’s fire at Odessa’s marble colonnaded Trade Union House was a murky event – about which little is clearly known.

Bad for business: an Odessa saleswoman waits for customers at a shop in the Black Sea port. Photo: Reuters

According to media efforts to reconstruct events, pro-Moscow gunmen killed four pro-Kiev protesters in the city centre, prompting the pro-Kiev side to set fire to a pro-Moscow encampment at Trade Union House. The pro-Russians retreated into the building, from which shots were fired at the pro-Kiev protesters – and both sides were hurling Molotov cocktails.

The Economist asks: “Who were the gunmen in the city centre on Friday afternoon? Were they among the people who later entered the building and were shooting from there? Where did the Molotov cocktails come from? How did the fire start? Why did the pro-Russian crowd rush into a building instead of running away? Why could the 40 people not escape once the building caught fire?”

After claims by both sides that the Odessa police failed to act, the interim government in Kiev sacked the local police chief and governor and announced that a special operations force had been ordered to Odessa.

In Donetsk, the organisers of an independence referendum scheduled for this Sunday were unmoved by the urging of Russian President Vladimir Putin that they cancel the ballot which would effectively excise another 16,000 square kilometres and 10 per cent of the population of Ukraine – after the loss of Crimea.

Local leaders of the breakaway movement told a press conference in Donetsk that one of the reasons they were determined to proceed was to show their independence from Mr Putin who stands accused by Kiev and many in the West of fomenting the fracturing of Ukraine.

Mr Putin might have other worries. The European Central Bank now suggests that the flight of capital from Russia as the Ukraine crisis has unfolded and international sanctions have been applied is four times greater than acknowledged by Moscow.

Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, did not claim the work as ECB analysis, but he told reporters: “We had very significant outflows that have been estimated by some to be in the order of €160 billion out of Russia.”

That’s more than $US220 billion ($236 billion) – and four times higher than the estimate by a Moscow official that the capital outflow had been “just $US51 billion in the first quarter.”