Economists expect May nonfarm payrolls to rise about 150,000. At the
margins, "you can get a pretty big market reaction" in the 10-year, which yields
about 1.7%. Indeed, if payrolls rise by just 50,000, chances for QE III rise to
80 or 90%, from current even odds.

Friday, May 25, 2012

What was looking like the possibility of a ‘risk on’
day has turned into a big nothing done. Even a better than expected
University of
Michigan Consumer Confidence number
could not garner any kind of thrust to the upside. The headlines out of
Europe continue to be bi-polar and problematic. Much was
made of headlines out of Technocrat Mario Monti who said the German Chancellor
was boxed in on Eurobonds. Today the Dutch confirmed they are also against the
idea of Eurobonds until countries get their respective fiscal houses in order. So
it sounds like Mr. Monti may find himself boxed in instead. German Consumer
Confidence was a touch better, again no real reaction. Headlines out of
Spain were
garnering most of the attention. Unfortunately for the beleaguered
Euro , Spain
is a much bigger problem then the Greeks. The common currency briefly touched
levels not seen since August 2010. King Copper continued its bearish
streak down for a fifth consecutive week. It’s longest losing streak
since May 2010. The parallels to the summer of 2010 are becoming all too
common. U.S markets will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. The
rest of the globe will be open for business. Sunday night will see the release
of China ’s
Leading Index. The prior reading was 100.52. Can anyone say reserve cut in
Cantonese? A heavy dose of data will come out of
Japan on Monday, including Jobless
data and Retail Sales. U.S.
traders will head back to work on Tuesday and the docket will be full. German
CPI, Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence and Dallas Fed Manufacturing will all be
released. Can we break the current trend of negative Friday’s as the
whole month of May has seen a red candle to end the week? As ‘risk off’
and Friday’s have become synonymous. Currently the market looks like it
will be content to take its ~2% rally on the week and head to the boardwalk! Obviously
liquidity may dry up as we head into the close and outsized moves could be made
on very little volume. Have a wonderful holiday weekend. Remember the real
meaning of the holiday and thank those who have so valiantly served so that we
may remain free. Ancient Greek historian Thucydides rapped it up nicely; “The
secret of happiness is Freedom, and the secret of Freedom, Courage.” Enjoy.

UPDATE: VeriFone Continues After-Hours Slump, Down 9%; Beats on Q2, Guides in Line to Below Expectations for Q3 and the Full YearMay 25 at 08:46

VeriFone weakness is a buying opportunity, says Barclays May 25 at 09:30VeriFone gaps down sharply, support is at $38.80 May 25 at 09:43VeriFone guidance comments contradict older statements,says Wedbush May 25 at 07:58VeriFone weakness a buying opportunity, says Citigroup May 25 at 05:59VeriFone shares should be sold, says Deutsche Bank May 25 at 05:54

Europe closes near
session highs in spite of the very confusing headlines and macro data which were
released. European PMI’s as well as German Confidence came out worse than
expected. Many were hoping a speech by ECB Chief Mario Draghi would give a
clearer picture as to what the next move the Central Bank would make. JP Morgan
has stated LTRO # 3 as well as a rate cut are in store before July. Mr. Draghi
would have none of it. Like a champion poker player his cards are well hidden. He
went as far as to say the effects of the first two LTRO’s have not fully
been digested by the system. The technocratic leader of
Italy , Mr.
Monti said Eurobonds were close at hand. The market found its sea legs and
ripped on the headline, only to have it refuted within twenty minutes time by a
lieutenant of the German Chancellor. So as we have seen in the past there is no
continuity in the statements coming out of continental Europe .
So what has changed you may ask? The Bank of Russia even chimed in and said the
Greeks have plans for a parallel currency, if need be. Makes you wonder will
the Greeks tie their future currency to that of another nation, possibly the
Ruble? Is this the new way communism and socialism will advance across
continents? Remember the nasty old Cold War days when country borders were
heavily fortified by barbed wire, walls and tanks? I know, I know this is stuff
of spy novels! Forgive me for questioning the new world order. Meanwhile, back
at the ranch, Markit released their first version of a US Flash PMI. Surprise,
surprise it showed a contraction, 53.9 versus 56 prior. One more data point
which shows the world economy is showing signs of slippage no matter how much
pump priming goes on. The coordinated variety may be on tap next, keep your
fingers crossed! The good news tomorrow is Friday. A three day weekend beckons.
The calendar will look to German GFK Consumer Confidence, as well as a scheduled
German vote on the ESM on the continent. US data will consist of
University of
Michigan survey at 9:55, and then we
coast into the weekend. Another day of twist and turns on the global
stage. Have a wonderful day.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Positions
(DELL) Short - Huge relative weakness - Compressing lows in this 50 point dow rally off lows. $12.17 fib targets to cover
(PETM) Long all day - expansion Fibonacci target $62.99
(MS) Short all day - compressing lows in this last spys push....

(GSVC) Currently trending up into after a strong secondary offering on Friday
(SVVC) Loo'sk higher thru the 28.50 level
(RENN) Renren inc. trading strong into the pm. Quarterly EPS after the bell tonight
(LNKD) Trading higher up $4 just below the $110 level