Stephen Curry and the Jump from Good to Great

At the end of April 2007 — having just received the NBA’s most improved player award — Monta Ellis sat on the Warriors’ bench during the triumphant series against the Dallas Mavericks, pounding his head with his fists in frustration. At the end of his otherwise outstanding sophomore campaign, Ellis had suffered a complete meltdown against the Mavs. Under the bright lights of the playoffs, he had struggled to find his shot, scoring a total of 8 points on 3-15 shooting in the series’ final three games. Ellis recovered and grew from the experience, but it was a stark reminder that nothing — not high school state championships, not the NCAA tournament, not the NBA regular season, not international play — prepares players for the rigors and intensity of NBA playoff basketball. Stephen Curry’s sophomore campaign has been better than Ellis’ first playoff run, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement in Curry’s game. Just the opposite — how Curry responds now that he’s met with a measure of success will determine just how good he will be. With a year under his belt, the relative weaknesses in Curry’s game are undisputed. As a player that the Warriors believe can be not just good, but great, the most important question for Curry this year and beyond is how he attacks those weaknesses.

This can’t be stressed enough: Stephen Curry is a young player, still honing his game and playing in a new, more-demanding system. All of the following should be read with that in mind. Curry has played extremely well in his young NBA career, he’s already shown signs of growth, and he should be given more time to develop. That said, Stephen Curry is a victim of his own success — by showing so much so early on, he’s raised expectations. But just because Curry is being held to a higher standard doesn’t mean he’s being treated unfairly. The Warriors’ new owners have made it clear that they consider Curry to be a franchise-level centerpiece for this team. If he’s going to live up to that role, he has to embrace high expectations. The Warriors have had lots of spectacular players on .400 teams. If Curry is going to show that he’s something different from those false hopes before him, he has prove that he has what it takes to excel at the highest level — the NBA playoffs.

There are two parts of Curry’s game that worry me: (1) his ability to execute the offense precisely with a low error rate and (2) his defense. Both parts of his game have been cause for concern so far this season, although there are extenuating circumstances (his ankle, a new system, fatigue from summer play) and lots of time for him to improve. I’m not arguing that Curry won’t improve or that we should give up on him — far from it. My points are far more modest: he needs to improve in these areas, and there’s no harm in checking in occasionally to see how he’s doing. So far, the results are mixed.

Offensive Execution: This concern starts with Curry’s turnovers, but it’s bigger than that. Curry looked his best last year when he was running free in Nelson’s system. He was allowed to create on the fly, make spectacular plays and generally exploit his excellent feel for the flow of the game. In that type of system, mistakes are inevitable — they’re a calculated risk countered by the upside of unpredictability of the attack. The problem with that style is NBA games — particularly against good defensive teams — don’t always flow naturally. Sometimes offense doesn’t just materialize, it needs to be manufactured. That takes half-court sets, precise execution and — given a generally slower pace with fewer possessions — a much lower tolerance for errors. I’m bugged by Curry’s careless errors on the break and in the free-flowing game, but it’s the mistakes when the Warriors are trying to execute set plays that really worry me. If the Warriors are going to be a playoff threat, Curry has to show that he can run the offense not just against the Wolves and the Clippers of the NBA, but against the meat-grinding defenses of teams like the Spurs and the Bulls.

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Curry’s struggles in executing the offense can’t all be reduced to numbers, but the statistical evidence is mixed. Curry’s turnovers per game aren’t that bad — at 2.8, he’s tied for 28th in the league. Adjusted for 48 minutes, he’s even better (tied for 37th). As a point guard, however, his assist-to-turnover ratio is disappointing. The NBA’s best point guard, Chris Paul, is second in the NBA at 4.16 (D.J. Augustin leads at an unsustainable 5.17). Curry comes in at 42nd with 2.07 — roughly half the efficiency of Paul. Pretty much every starting point guard except Billups and Duhon ranks ahead of him (Evans ranks below him as well, but the Kings have been playing him for extended minutes at 2 with Udrih at point). As a floor general — someone creating opportunities for others while minimizing his own errors — Curry’s still finding his way.

The blame for Curry’s turnover struggles also can’t be dismissed entirely as a product of David Lee’s injury. Lee clearly helps the ball move in the Warriors’ offense, but Curry’s assist-to-turnover ratio only wobbles slightly from 2.18 to 2.05 in games Lee has played vs. those he hasn’t. One good sign from the statistical picture is that Curry’s carelessness appears to be improving — he has 3.5 over his first 6 games but only 2.22 over his last 9. His assists also dropped during that period — 6.83 for the first 6 vs. 5.11 for the last 9 — but he still showed a net improvement on his assist-to-turnover ratio (1.95 vs. 2.30). So while Curry still has a ways to go when it comes to learning how to operate in a more structured offense, there are signs of improvement despite the very small sample size.

Defense: There may be encouraging signs on the offensive end, but things are still pretty bleak when it comes to defense. Curry’s size and speed were concerns from day 1 in the NBA, but defense isn’t entirely about physical gifts. Curry has been a source of frustration so far this season defensively because he’s losing both the physical and mental match-ups. He gets blown past by quicker men, then commits silly fouls in an attempt to recover. He goes brain-dead when he’s already picked up a few calls, forcing himself off the court with unnecessary contact. He drifts away from guys he should be covering tightly, then bodies up against guys that are not offensive threats. Like Amare Stoudemire — who recently admitted in an unusually candid NBA moment that no one had ever bothered to teach him defense — Curry needs to start from defensive fundamentals and work up. Keith Smart has been vocal in his teaching this year with all the Warriors, so there’s reason to believe Curry can get the help he needs to make the most of his physical abilities.

Based on the numbers, Curry has nowhere to go but up. He’s currently third in the NBA in fouls-per-game with 4.0. Only 2 other guards are in the top 20 (Lowry and Arenas). He’s better per 48 minutes, ranking 48th with 5.8 fouls, but he’s by far the highest on the list of any starting guard — let alone point guard. He’s been lit up already this season by a variety of less-than-luminary offensive players like Raymond Felton. Most alarmingly, teams are increasingly targeting Curry with their offense, which only exacerbates his foul problems, ultimately forcing him off the court. Forget stopping opponents, Curry needs to focus right now on finding a way to stay on the court — he’s had 6, 5 and 5 fouls in his last three outings. Whatever good Curry brings offensively is worthless if he’s pinned to the bench.

Curry will probably never be a defensive stopper, but he needs to find ways to use his basketball IQ to compensate for his physical disadvantages. He needs to be a student of positioning and habits like Shane Battier and Bruce Bowen, constantly forcing guys to where they’re uncomfortable operating. He needs to recognize when he’s been beaten and cut his losses rather than going for fouls. He has to focus on at least raising the difficulty of offensive attacks — by stopping early penetration, for example — even if he ultimately can’t stop his man from getting off a shot. As the Warriors enter this next stretch of games of not only top-tier teams, but top-tier point guards, it’ll be a major test of how much Curry can give this team at the defensive end.

Ultimately, all of the above comes down to a simple point: Curry may be the best we have at point guard, but that doesn’t mean he’s as good as he can be — or should be. Running an NBA offense and guarding NBA point guards are not simple tasks, but Curry has been making relatively simple mistakes while trying to do both. He’s already working on eliminating the turnovers. Hopefully improvement on the defensive end comes next. These refinements to Curry’s game aren’t just nit-picking or an effort to stir up controversy. They’re the finer points of NBA success that separate the players — and teams — we see regularly in May and June from those that only make a cameo appearance for the draft lottery.

The Warriors’ new owners have talked about a new era of accountability. When it comes to setting goals, eliminating mistakes and demanding demonstrable improvement, there’s no better place to start than at the top.

Adam Lauridsen

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1. Andris Biedrins has been GREAT this season. His detractors need to actually go to the games and watch him play. The guy is playing with life on the floor. He is quick to rebounds. He is defending well. He is active on defense. It’s laughable to me when people knock his offense. He is shooting roughly 60% from the floor. He doesn’t need to score. He only needs to be able to keep the defense honest, which he is doing. He has developed a few moves, to the point where defenses can’t simply leave him ungaurded. The guy was tremendous tonight, against an EXCELLENT rebounding team in the Spurs.

2. I have no idea what the Warriors are running on offense. It is the most stagnant I have seen in a long time. NO ONE is moving off the ball. Guys are simply standing around. No cutting. There are only two players on the floor who seem to have ANY concept in regards to spacing and where to be on the court: Curry and Lee. Everyone else looks lost out there.

3. Keith Smart has some of the worst rotations/player management situations in the league. I don’t know if that is something that a new coach needs to learn; but, at the moment, Smart has no clue what he is doing.

4. I don’t care what people say about Ellis. I don’t care if he can put the ball in the basket in a dazzling manner. The guy is hands down the DUMBEST player in the league. His foul before the end of the period was mind blowing. He has no idea where he needs to be on the floor in relation to his teammates. He doesn’t see two or three moves ahead of the play. He only see’s what’s happening in the moment. He has no vision on the court. He is not moving the ball nearly as well as he was in the first few games, and he is clearly forcing shots.

This was a game the Warriors had no business winning. The Spurs are quite simply the superior team. If it weren’t for Curry and Biedrins, this game would have been a 40 point loss.

Our Team

Playoffbound: Keith Smart will respond to questions about his foul management substitutions but first he has to look at the tape.

Our Team

Say what you want about the Warriors tonight, but David Lee aint gonna be nobody’s little pony.

Our Team

Too bad the days of the Player-Coach are gone bc David Lee sounds and looks like he’d be a damn good one.

Our Team

This is a motion offense (without the motion).

JT

“I couldn’t make a shot so I figured I’d pass it and let somebody else make a shot,” Duncan said. “I wasn’t trying to do it. Just the flow of the game and the plays that were being called.”

This was a quote by Tim Duncan after the game. This is why Duncan is a super-star, and Monta Ellis will end up as a poor man’s Allen Iverson.

BG

Nice takes, JT. I agree, Monta is a borderline All-Star, but he gets called for some of the dumbest fouls in the league. It’s like he doesn’t understand certain situations in the game. He is constantly challenging shooters on 40 ftr’s at the end of quarters or a couple times last season at the end of games. Monta is still a great talent and the most athletic / explosive player on the team.

JT

Next 5 games:

PHX
@OKC
@DAL
@SAS
MIA

The start of this season was a mirage. The Warriors are a decent team against soft competition. Then the schedule stiffened…

DavidK

SOA – I do that trade in half a heartbeat! I think udoh was a huge reach and just don’t think BW is ever going to be much. On talent-for-talent alone, it’s a no-brainer.

Frankly if I were the Maloofs, and Petrie did that deal, I’d fire him on the spot.

meir34

Back from, 2 punctured tires on I 5 near Firebaugh, getting a 75 in a 25 zone trying to make it to the only tire repair place before they closed, some 25 miles away on a highway that I was the only car coming or going, seeing The Phantom in Vegas, T’Giving in LA, Chanukah in Marin and a bad snowstorm coming home through the Siskiyou Pass a couple of hours ago. And a trip to the ER in, of all dumps, Barstow where they handed us bottled water cuz NASA says their Pride and Joy’s, coming in to Edward’s Air Force Base, have dropped some sort of fuel with poison into the local drinking water.

Only seen two W games, in all this time-the last two.

I have to admit I’m lost on Smart’s player rotations. I can dig resting stars more than Nellie did, it’s a long season. I can also dig wanting a star to be around at the end. But to be so conservative while watching games go down the drain, with said stars sitting on the bench puzzles me.

It’s a simple fact that if you save em for the last two and a half minutes, say, as compared to putting them back in with 7 mins to go, over a season you’ll have more minutes on the floor from them in the latter case.

Since I don’t see anything here about it, I’ll also comment about how when I saw Monta playing all 48 mins (in a game that was already won, btw), I wondered out loud, very out loud, what the hey will we be able to expect from him in the next game? And thus it went.

Finally, am I too harsh to not want to see VladRad banned from coming within 10 miles of any court the team plays on?

And, seemingly impossible, but true, Bell is worse. What’s with this guy? Is he on drugs???

Hostiles, please notice that there was not a comment from me on my Anti-Internat’l Summer League play cuz of consequences theme, oft made and rejected by some at the time. And, not a word about someone’s continued t.o.’s (5a to 5 t.o. marring a nice offensive game), and ABSOLUTELY nothing about Skinny Ass and his likely continuing injuries and how we should have traded him when we could have gotten something back for bag of bones, when the word “potential” wasn’t so hollow as it is now. Or JR’s 38,35 and 39 point games.

meir34

75 in a 55 zone. Not as bad, but bad enough. SR33 and this Highway Patrol guy was sitting in wait or whacking off as I was the only car we saw going or coming back to I5. As it was, we missed the tire place and had to be towed 90 miles down I5 to the first all night truck stop to get the leaks fixed!! I’m afraid to ask how much the ticket will cost-it doesn’t say on the offending document.