Thursday Bolts – 5.28.09

According to this formula devised by Roland Beech of 82Games.com, the No. 3 pick is historically more productive than the No. 2. Oh yeah, that’s right, OKC picks third!: “First up is a simple, what should you expect, performance-wise from a given pick number? If you have say the 5th pick in the draft, what are your chances on average of landing a star player? … Keep in mind the stats are career per game averages so lower than the peak performance years of a player. Moreover, there is also some bias in that using recent years some of the current players may well spike up their career ‘standing’ with more years under the belt.”

Well this is cool – Joe Smith says he misses Oklahoma City: “It’s a testament to the franchise, it’s a testament to the guys in the locker room, my teammates down there, the direction of the organization … I grew really close to those guys down there,” Smith tells HOOPSWORLD. “That’s why it was a tough decision. Our record wasn’t right, wasn’t what we expected, but inside that locker room we had a good group, a tight group, and we really enjoyed being around each other. That’s always a tough situation to be in.” First and foremost, Smith knows he was witnessing something special as he watched Kevin Durant grow into a young NBA superstar. “KD’s a heck of a player,” says Smith. “Just being around him for the short time I was around him, seeing his work ethic, and how bad he wants to get better – he’s a heck of a talent. He brings a lot to the table on both ends of the floor, so the sky’s the limit for him. One day I think he’s going to be in a position to put his team in the playoffs and get a few runs at a championship.” Read the whole thing. Really great stuff.

Chad Ford’s second mock and he still has Rubio in OKC: “This is a tougher one. I’m told the Thunder like Rubio and that Rubio wouldn’t object to being in Oklahoma City. So from the Thunder’s point of view, the issue is how well Rubio would fit on the roster. Some in Oklahoma City see Russell Westbrook as the point guard of the future and aren’t sure how he’d fare without the ball in his hands. If Rubio is off the board, this could be a tough decision between Thabeet and James Harden. But Thunder GM Sam Presti is an opportunist. If he can get a couple of good assets in return for the No. 3 pick, he won’t be afraid to pull the trigger.”

Very interesting words about Chris Bosh and his ceiling: “That, however, has become too true. Over the past four seasons, Bosh has reached an appreciable but almost dead flat numerical plateau. His points per game have been 22.5, 22.6, 22.3, and 22.7. His rebounding numbers have ranged between 8.7 and 10.7; his assist numbers between 2.5 and 2.6; his blocked shots between 1.0 and 1.3. He has shot between .487 and .505, with the number trending slightly downward each year; he has attempted 8.3, 8.6, 8.3, and 8.0 free throws per game. Oh, and he has missed 12, 13, 15 and five games, and the Raptors have not won a playoff series. In other words, he has become an all-star, a fine and respectable player, and a 6-foot-10 metronome.”

Pete Mickeal for HoopsHype on Ricky Rubio: “Real advanced after beating Joventut, a club led by other small guy. This one you may have heard of: Ricky Rubio. That guy is amazing. First time I saw him it was like three or four years ago. I was playing for a team called Breogan in Northern Spain back then, my first year in the ACB. I saw a teenager on the court and I was like, “Who’s that kid?” They told me he was 15 or 16. Never saw something like that in the pros. I saw his knack for defense, his ability to play the game of basketball at such a young age. That is something rare to see: the knowledge and the awareness of basketball at such young age. And that was when he was 15 years old. Then I’ve seen him turn into a star in the Spanish League, which is no small potatoes. Now everybody in the States knows him. Can’t say I’m surprised.”

The NBA Combine starts today in Chicago: “This is still a critical time because a lot is derived from the data gathered at the combine. Key stats will be actual height (sneakers and barefoot), vertical leap (of course) and wingspan, along with lane agility and 3/4 court speed. These will be important results for players such as Stephen Curry and DeJuan Blair (height issues) and James Harden (athleticism issues). They could also raise the stock in others, such as Jrue Holiday (wingspan) and Gerald Henderson (athleticism). It was after the combine in Orlando last year, just as the workouts began, that Russell Westbrook’s stock soared for this same reason.”

It was only a matter of time before someone wrote this – will Chris Andersen be in OKC next year?: “Just like Birdman, who is like Rodman in that there’s really no one else like him in the NBA, a player who does one thing better than anyone else in the league and does all the grunt work well. You win titles with players like that. But would Thunder general manager Sam Presti take a flier on Birdman? No. Presti would sign Andersen only after the most intense research into the Birdman’s rehabilitation. My guess is, Birdman is not worth the financial risk. Maintaining fiscal sanity, so that the upcoming big contracts for Kevin Durant and Co. can be offered.”

More Griffin/Clippers/Thunder stuff: “For weeks now, the Clippers have been rumored to be enamoured with Spanish Guard Ricky Rubio. With his complicated buyout (which costs Rubio six million euros this season or 10 million euros next season), Rubio should slide past the Memphis Grizzlies, owners of the second pick, and still be available when Oklahoma City picks third. The Thunder is obviously keen on the former Sooner and the consensus top overall prospect, Blake Griffin … So, rather than giving up the top pick and Davis in exchange for Rubio and a handful of iffy contracts, expect Los Angeles to stand pat and live with the decision to draft Griffin. Don’t forget, as HOOPSWORLD’s Steve Kyler pointed out yesterday, the Clippers have season ticket holders to think of. The sooner they draft the Sooner, the more tickets they are likely to sell before the season.”

Sam Amico: “Oklahoma City would love to somehow land Griffin, adding a talent from the state university to an already up-and-coming roster that includes swingman Kevin Durant, forward Jeff Green and point guard Russell Westbrook. But with Westbrook in the fold, the Thunder would have no desire to add Davis. There is, however, the possibility of bringing in a third team to make everyone happy. According to some reports, the Thunder and Clippers may swap picks (the Thunder draft third overall), enabling the Thunder to take Griffin and the Clippers to draft Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio. But again, a lot of that is contingent on the Clippers being able to find a taker for Davis. Obviously, the Thunder would have to offer more than just the No. 3 pick to land the No. 1. And obviously, they want to hang on to Durant, Green and Westbrook. But what Thunder do have is an abundance of future first-round selections. They own two potential lottery choices next season — their own and Phoenix’s — and a first-rounder in 2011. Two of those choices and this year’s No. 3 would likely be enough to land Griffin.”

Clark of The Lost Ogle on the Griffin situation: “Keeping those eight things in mind, it appears the top three fell in the wrong order. Based on the mantra of taking the best player available, L.A. should take Griffin, Rubio should be selected by Memphis, and the Thunder can decide who is third best. But really, Griffin fits best with OKC, Rubio wants to land with the Clippers, and Memphis would rather stretch to take Thabeet. This trade would solve that problem: Clippers select Griffin; Memphis selects Rubio; Oklahoma City selects Thabeet; L.A. then ships Griffin to Oklahoma City with Baron Davis and his monster contract; Memphis ships Rubio to L.A. (and possibly Darko Milicic); Oklahoma City ships Thabeet and the #25 pick to Memphis … Will it happen? Not a chance in hell. Sure it was a waste of time to even consider this, but what else are we going to do during the Summer?”

Liz Toppi says to hold the hype on Rubio: “His stats are not overwhelmingly impressive. His mid-range game and ability to shoot off the dribble are below average. He is prone to turning the ball over. Those deficiencies stand out the Euroleague. That’s partially because European ball is predicated on efficiency – accurate shooting and taking care of the rock. But should a top 5 NBA prospect struggle to do those basic things in any league? Europe simply isn’t as competitive as the NBA.”

that's why you have a bench - if we play against Kobe or Roy - Thabo gets more time - the NBA is all about matchups - and I think that Harden could get away with playing point for a few minutes if he had to . . .

One thing that I think is being overlooked about James Harden is everything else that he brings to the table, besides shooting. I was able to watch alot of his games and something that impressed me was everything else that he did. He had some huge rebounds in tight games. He was definately a steadying presence on the ASU team. I think that is a great point about basketball IQ. Who wins on that test, Harden or Thabeet? :)

I can't help but back the selection of Harden. He isn't the hype machine. But he is a basketball player. I would rather go for a guy like that than someone like Thabeet who doesn't bring many intangibles to the table. If we pick Thabeet, then I will be hoping everyday to be proven wrong.

One of my concerns with Harden was his ability to defend at his position in the athletic NBA. My thought progression is that we have a team full of long rangy athletic defenders. In a tough matchup, maybe we see more of Swizz Beats(sefolosha) or Weaver? Maybe it wouldn't be too much of a detriment?

Sorry for a quick post again, but wanted to throw another thought out there to everyone who is advocating more three point shooting. The former Sonics team was a strong three point shooting team with Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. There was a large number of fans who consistently hoped for a change of focus into a more identified goal of attacking the basket. Also a lot of concern on being a soft, jump-shooting team that didn't put as much pressure on opposing defenses as could happen over the course of a game.

I completely agree that we need a player or three that can knock down some threes, but I am also concerned what might happen if our wishes come true. Green, Durant, and Westbrook don't seem shy about shooting threes. If we add more shooters, it must be a focus to still attack the rim.

Watching Denver and the sometimes questionable shot selection and three point shots, I am frustrated at that trait of a team that can make some serious dagger threes, but sometimes rely on it too much.

It seems to me lookin at the limited data on Presti's draft strategy is that he drafts players that are big for their position. Perhaps a reason why he passed or traded players who can contribute like a Carl Landry or a Big Baby Davis?

If you go into the draft with that mindset who do we then target? Or does he change it up with someone who may be small for a position but brings a specific skill or talent?

I am pretty sure that he made a comment on envisioning a team of long, athletic, and versatile players. Durant and Green are easy evidence. But, look at Sefolosha and Weaver and the picture is clearer. Westbrook has good size for a point and is very explosive. Perhaps part of the reason he passed on Bayless? Ibaka is tall and explosive. DJ White has good, not great size, but is strong (haven't seen him in awhile.)

Royce :Trust me, nobody loves the active (and highly intelligent) commenters more than me. Over half of what makes a great team blog are the people that read it. And I’d say some of the best and the brighest are here.

That Presti Hoopsworld article was absolutely awesome. If Clay Bennett has any idea what he has (and why wouldn't he, he hired him), then he should reward Sam big-time once the win totals start to increase.

It's great to hear about Sam's background, too. You can't teach the kind of intuition and work ethic that he possesses in spades.

@djWhile I won't mind a bit if we get "stuck" with Harden, I don't see B.Davis as being anywhere close to untradable. I know he had some injury issues last year, but I have never read anything to make me think he won't be coming back at 100% this year. Former all-star point guards are a fairly rare commodity. 12 mill per for four years aint cheap, it seems in line with what other similarly situated veterans are pulling down. I think some of the up-tempo teams out there like the Kings,Warriors and Wizards would have to be interested in his services. Zach Randolph on the other hand- that dude is untradable.

Trust me, nobody loves the active (and highly intelligent) commenters more than me. Over half of what makes a great team blog are the people that read it. And I'd say some of the best and the brighest are here.

@BrianSeriously...Royce needs to do a self-aggrandizing post about how much this site has grown since it started because I really think it's one of the best team blogs anywhere. Not only are the posts top-notch, but this site really attracts an intelligent crowd and the comments section always makes me come back long after I've finished reading one of Royce's or Joe's posts.

@Jax Raging Bile DuctThat's certainly a big part of it. As a viewer, I just don't feel like the better team wins anymore. Sure, a good team can overcome adversity, but you can't fight against the people who don't play. If another team is on a run, you can't stop them by tightening up your defense, because inevitably you'll still be called for phantom fouls every third play. The worst part about it all is that in order to counter this phenomenon, teams have made the sport in general less interesting to watch. They slow everything down to a snail's pace, they run the same play over and over again, only 1-2 guys on the team end up really mattering.

Keith :...In Hockey and Football, you know refs miss calls sometimes, and it pisses you off, but in the NBA, you EXPECT the refs to ruin games and you just stop caring.

That's it, that's it right there.

These playoff games come down to one or two possessions. One or two points wins a game. I'd be more forgiving if each game was like Cleveland's first 8 playoff games, winning by double digits. But when a technical foul costs a team a point, and ultimately the game, ESPECIALLY when the NBA rescinds that technical foul after the game is over... that just wreaks of incompetence.

I know, and we don't bash refs here either. But I'm old enough to remember how games used to be called, and how they're called now. Maybe I'm just hanging on to how things used to be and not moving along with the changes in the times, but I still can't help but think that in this case, things have changed for the worse.

Disregarding how superstars get calls, and the voice in the back of your head that keeps whispering about the hidden agenda the NBA has to have when it comes to the money they make on big market teams winning or a series going 7 games, he makes a good point about the age of the refs, and how there is a poor process for developing new talent. The Van Gundy idea of the hockey time-out is a good one. And his idea of tracking poor calls on a website is grand.

Just imagine if you ran a website dedicated to NBA officiating integrity. You could grade each call or non-call A-F. With A being the right call at the right time according to the rules and only the rules, and an F being a blatant miss. You could grade each call after every game. There are always questionable calls and poor camera angles, but you could always take that into consideration when handing out a grade.

Simmons is right about the traffic a site like that would get. There are tons of basketball blogs out there, and enough traffic to support all of them. It's an amazing undertaking, but I'd give that site a visit after every game, wouldn't you?

@KevI don't think he'll get that many assists, not because of his passing skills, but because the majority of his touches should be on kick outs and passes from other players. We need him to be a lethal spot up shooter more than a passer.

@Jax Raging Bile DuctI liked the article because it said a lot of the things I feel about the NBA. During the last Orlando-Cleveland game my dad called me just as regulation was ending. He said he didn't want to stay up and watch the overtime, that the refs had thrown the game away and it wasn't worth the effort. That should say a lot about the NBA. My father loves sports, but he would rather go to bed early than watch an overtime game in the NBA playoffs. We actually talked about it a little bit and came to one conclusion. In Hockey and Football, you know refs miss calls sometimes, and it pisses you off, but in the NBA, you EXPECT the refs to ruin games and you just stop caring.

I highly enjoyed it. I think he's right - to a degree. As Kev said, we all gripe about officials all the time. My dad complains that the game is too rough and shoukd be played like it was in 60s with less bumping and pushing. Simmons wants more physicality. It's tough to gauge.

I do agree that's there too many free throws. But what's a ref supposed to do? When a guy fouls, he fouls. He's got to blow the whistle. I do agree that not every game should be called the same. Just like a home plate umpire has his own strike zone, an NBA ref should have his own foul. It's just the way it is.

I do agree with this part a lot though:"The question remains: What's wrong with a few rough fouls? Isn't that an occupational hazard, no different than pitchers occasionally getting hit by line drives or defensemen getting nailed by slapshots? What's wrong with the occasional shoving match where nobody gets hurt, or the wild roundhouse right that never connects? What are we afraid of? Why does hockey condone fighting and baseball still allows dugouts and bullpens to empty during brawls, but the NBA doesn't allow glaring? If everyone else in society can butt heads from time to time, why can't NBA players? What makes them a higher form of being? There's no answer."

The NBA has become so sissified (copyright: Jim Traber) that it's scared of ANYTHING physical. I think it's good. It fires people up. Now you don't want brawls by any means, but these flagrants are ridiculous. And going to the monitor to check it is equally as stupid. If you didn't see it when it happened, it didn't happen. That's the way I look at those fouls.

That one got my juices flowing. Bill is rough on OKC, and I think he plays the anti-Kobe bit just to get some pub, but I'm on board with this article 100%. I like the chats we have on this blog, so if anyone has read it and wants to chime in, I'd like to see what you all think.

@AlexThose seem like that would be perfect numbers for Harden. I could actually see him putting up consistent numbers like that for his career. Always solid in the three main categories with maybe a few seasons of higher scoring. Seems reasonable.

I think I'd be pretty happy if Harden's per game averages as a rookie were just as 82games predicted for the #3 pick:

31.9min 15.2pts 5.1rebs 3.5asts

That's almost exactly what I would expect from a Harden pick...That was a really cool link. Did you scroll down and check out the best/worst drafting teams article that followed? I was surprised by the Bucks at #1 and glad to see the Clippers second to last...

birdman - NO ...more hype than substance ...& nowhere near rodman basketball-wise ...the lakers have been rag-dolling him all series, his on-ball defense is mediocre at best, & he misses too many lay-ups ...he's a good complementary piece, but he's going to command a lot more money than he has proven to be worth.

That Joe Smith article was great. And it reinforces a point that many have made -- playing with a well-run organization that has a strong core of outstanding young players (including several future super stars) that is on the rise... this is definitely a draw. While some players may shy away from being on a small market team, there are many others who would love this kind of atmosphere to play in. I don't think OKC will have much trouble attracting and keeping talent.

As for Joe, I was a bit sad to see him go - he was such a great guy. And I really wouldn't mind if we got him back. But I doubt that would happen. There's probably not a spot for him on the team anymore.

Please don't do that. Screws with the integrity of commenting. Especially some who like to go back over and over, re-writing history. Don't feel bad about typos or mistakes - everyone makes them. Just add another comment with the correction. Really, editing posts is evil.

@KevYeah, I'm with you there, especially if other teams really think the Thunder would take Rubio at #3. But again, I can see the Grizzlies not really caring and washing their hands of the whole thing and just taking Thabeet if they think Thabeet would be taken by the Thunder.

The Grizzlies won't move out of the #2 pick to move Rubio if they want Thabeet and are afraid that he'll be taken by the Thunder at #3.

Although if I was Wallace, I'd be focusing on Jordan Hill right now and swap picks with the Kings at #4 and get something extra in return.

And I hope everyone remembers where I stood on the #3 pick in my Draft Prospectus. Not that I'm (take Harden) biased in any (JAMES HARDEN) way.

J.G. :I’d say it’s a good thing we have trouble seeing it, since the Grizzlies are notorious for making bad decisions.That being said, it wouldn’t really surprise me if they avoid the Rubio situation altogether and take Thabeet if they are as high on him as everyone seems to report that they are.If individuals are willing to pass on a player because of “character issues,” I can see the buyout, unwillingness to be there, issues with fit regarding a ball-dominant guard in Mayo and a much talked about “I’m going to get mine, but yeah, I hope we also win” winger in Rudy Gay (Mayo could also fall into this category) making the Grizzlies pass.

my point is - if they are wary of Rubio - there are too many other teams that love him - they are the key to this draft - if you want Rubio, you have to go through them . . .

I'd say it's a good thing we have trouble seeing it, since the Grizzlies are notorious for making bad decisions. :)

That being said, it wouldn't really surprise me if they avoid the Rubio situation altogether and take Thabeet if they are as high on him as everyone seems to report that they are.

If individuals are willing to pass on a player because of "character issues," I can see the buyout, unwillingness to be there, issues with fit regarding a ball-dominant guard in Mayo and a much talked about "I'm going to get mine, but yeah, I hope we also win" winger in Rudy Gay (Mayo could also fall into this category) making the Grizzlies pass.

The Clippers take Blake Griffin. No two ways about it because they can't trade Baron Davis. The Clips may or may not trade Chris Kaman.

The Grizzlies will take Ricky Rubio. He's too good to pass up. Then they either trade Rubio to the Kings or the Wizzards (eg Ricky Rubio for Jordan Hill + ?) or they trade Mike Conley to some other team for picks or help at power forward. They will also likely be able to sign a legit free agent power forward.

This leaves Presti to pick James Harden who is absolutely the perfect fit on this young team from any angle you want to look at it.

I don't think that HE would WANT to play anywhere else. At the start of the season, he could have re-signed with the Hornets, a team that many thought was championship caliber, but he signed with the Nuggets, who many thought wouldn't make the playoffs this year. Plus, the Nuggets could win a championship this year or next. If the team that you want to play for can possibly win a championship, wouldn't you stay there instead of going to a developing team that is several years from being a championship contender?

Royce :@Kev Yeah, I honestly thought they should have kept Kyle Lowry, but it just seems soon to give up on a top five pick.

GMs never do it - but at some point they have to admit when they were wrong - I made the same mistake two years ago - I thought Conley was a good NBA player, but there is nothing to his game that suggests he will be better - I think Wallaace knows it. The Memphis press backs this up, as no one I've heard thinks Conley is a good guard - they all are focused on Rubio . . .

Why wouldn't he? Keep in mind that Denver is the team that GAVE away Marcus Camby last Summer to avoid paying the luxury tax. They're on the cusp next season already without factoring in the likely reduction in the threshold and Linas Kleiza being a restricted free agent that could get a hefty raise.

Birdman isn't even making $1MM this season, but any raise the Nuggets give him (which would be limited to the midlevel exception since he hasn't been with the team long enough to have Bird Rights) would be doubly expensive to them since it would probably be taxed at $ for $.

[…] http://dailythunder.com/?p=2626If you’re having trouble keeping up with all the moves OKC has made and all the picks the Thunder has swapped, HoopsWorld has you covered: “#25 – The Oklahoma City Thunder received the San Antonio Spurs first round pick when they traded … […]