Senate swamp awaits gun control push

Sen. Marco Rubio and Donald Trump are looking for quick action on guns.

The Senate is likely to disappoint them.

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is loath to allow any debate that splits his caucus, and it’s hard to find one more divisive than guns. Already, proposals backed by the Florida Republican and the president are running into headwinds in the slow-moving Senate.

Rubio’s attempts to quickly pass an NRA-backed bill to improve the background-checks system may be blocked by fellow Republicans next week. A more controversial measure suggested by Trump and Rubio — raising the minimum age to buy some rifles from 18 to 21 — is already running into internal GOP opposition and resistance from influential pro-gun groups.

“More gun control is not the answer,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said via a spokeswoman. “Thousands of young Montanans are responsible gun owners. It simply does not make sense to deny these young men and woman their 2nd Amendment rights.”

Michael Hammond, legislative counsel for the Gun Owners of America, said Trump “likes to be adulated by the people in front of him … he may feel better in the short term” by pressing to raise the age limit for some rifles. “But in the long term, I think what Republicans do on this issue will determine how the 2018 election goes.”

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His argument: Trump’s base will punish the president and Republicans in November, probably by not voting at all, if they try to push even modest gun control legislation through Congress. The National Rifle Association also opposes changing the age at which people can buy rifles.

In addition to the heavy political lift any significant gun bill would require, the Senate’s plodding pace will make it difficult to quickly pass even narrow new gun legislation while the Florida massacre is still top of mind. Republicans familiar with the Senate GOP’s dynamics said Trump-backed legislation designed to improve the background-check system’s record-keeping could take lots more work — and may be the most ambitious thing the Senate can do this year.

In the end, it will be up to McConnell whether to allow votes on a broader package of new gun laws, focus on a less controversial bill to improve the background checks system — or hold off altogether.

“Only Mitch McConnell can bring it to the floor,” said Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who supports raising the age limit on some rifle purchases. “This is not something [Republican leaders are] going to want to have linger during the primary electoral season and into the general. And this one seems different with these high school kids” leading the charge for new gun laws.

Democrats would face big risks of their own by allowing the GOP to take up that narrow background-checks bill, which their members uniformly support but view as a laughable Band-Aid on the broader nationwide problem of gun violence. If Democrats let Trump’s party score a win on a small-ball gun bill and then move on, they risk inflaming their own liberal base.

Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said he “cannot imagine a bill that would make a difference that the NRA supports.” But some Democrats are willing to see how the debate plays out.

“I’m not in the business of drawing lines in the sand right now. Something is clearly happening out there, and Republicans are realizing that doing nothing is no longer acceptable politically for them,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).

Indeed, there are signs of politicians in both parties changing their long-held views on guns.

Rubio said on Wednesday evening that “if you are 18 years of age you should not be able to buy a rifle.” He was joined on Thursday by Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), who said “nobody under 21 should have an AR-15,” according to the Wichita Eagle. Likewise, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is “inclined to support legislation that would raise the minimum purchase age for rifles like the AR-15 from 18 ,” an aide said.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) is reconsidering his opposition to an assault weapons ban, taking a fresh look at the latest version from Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), according to aides. And after being raked by Senate Democrats for opposing universal background checks in 2013, Flake is talking with Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) about whether there’s a version of that bill he can support.

Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), a longtime GOP deal-maker, said he wants to first improve the background-check system, ban bump stocks that transform guns into nearly automatic weapons, get more counselors in schools and implement a new mental health law. But he said through a spokeswoman that he’s also “willing to consider other reasonable ideas to prevent future tragedies while preserving constitutional rights.”

Still, many in Washington are frozen by the gun debate.

POLITICO contacted all 51 Republican Senate offices about Trump’s suggestion to change the age at which people can buy rifles, and only a handful responded during this congressional recess week. And other than Bennet, the handful of Senate Democrats who have opposed assault weapons bans were also quiet.

Trump will have to make a sustained push to move the GOP, which is filled with stalwart defenders of gun rights and senators supported by the NRA. On Thursday, he also discussed giving teachers bonuses for carrying firearms and lavished praise on the gun rights group.

“Congress is in a mood to finally do something on this issue – I hope!” Trump tweeted.

But the president’s scattered approach is unlikely to translate into quick action in the Senate — or with the methodical majority leader.

“Despite the president’s words, this is going to be harder than he might think,” said a Senate Republican aide.

The narrow bill, which would encourage states and federal agencies to send more information to the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System, is already opposed by three Senate Republicans as written: Mike Lee of Utah, John Kennedy of Louisiana and Rand Paul of Kentucky. And the Gun Owners Association, which is more hard-line than the NRA, also opposes it.

“We have due process concerns with the bill as it is currently written, and we are working on a staff level to address those concerns,” said a spokesman for Lee.

One senator can block quick passage of legislation. And if Senate Republicans can steer the narrow background-checks bill past internal resistance, it’s set for serious trouble in the House. GOP leaders in that chamber have combined the background-checks measure with looser concealed-carry rules for firearms that hace no chance of passing the Senate, and they’ve promised conservatives that those provisions won’t be separated.

The hill is even steeper for the rifle age proposal. Feinstein and Flake are working to write a bill that would restrict only certain types of rifles for people under 21, hoping to assuage GOP concerns that such a ban would be too broad. But conservative opposition is already building.

Meanwhile, many Republicans are going to wait and see where Trump and GOP leaders end up. But the retiring Flake said congressional action is all but inevitable.

“I feel confident on this. I do. I don’t know how you can justify restricting handguns for someone under 21 but not restricting an AR 15. I just think that’s a bridge too far for the NRA and others,” Flake said. “I don’t know that [GOP leaders] can avoid it, given public sentiment.”

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