The two-stage, 23-story-tall rocket lifted off at 6:27 p.m. EDT (2227 GMT) in the second launch in two weeks for Elon Musk's SpaceX, which is ramping up its flight rate following an accident in September." space.com

Almost all of the readers of this blog, I suspect, do not remember the House UnAmerican Committee hearings investigating communist subversion in the 1940s. I know that Colonel Lang was a youngster back then and does remember, but if you are younger than 69 you only know about it from history. I raise that because it appears to me that we are now in a full fledged new era of Red Scare. The Russians, so we are told, hacked our election and threatened our democracy. If you disagree with this and try to argue the other point then you are nothing more than a Putin puppet or Kremlin stooge.

Today's hearing put on by the Senate Intelligence Committee turned out to be nothing more than a boring piece of kabuki theater designed to portray Russia as a rising menace and the United States as an innocent naif simply trying to enjoy the blessings of democracy. The outrage expressed by Democrat and Republican Senators over "outside interference" in our sacred democracy goes is laughable. Do none of these legislators remember what the United States, via CIA covert actions, did in Iran, Guatemala, Italy, Greece, Vietnam or Chile, just to mention a few? An appreciation of irony appears to be a lost art in the fantasy world that is Washington, D.C.

Senator Mark Warner is part of this anti-Russia propaganda onslaught and has said some things this week that are demonstrably false. When he appeared yesterday alongside Senator Richard Burr, Warner insisted that those nefarious Rooskies had manipulated Google searches to return results favoring media claimed to be Russian propaganda outlets (e.g., RT and Sputnik News). He made this claim last Sunday on Face the Nation:

"We saw manipulation of certain algorithms, so that if you Googled certain items, you got Russia news, [RT] News, other false news. We saw the selective hacking into DNC and individuals that then tried to leak that information to benefit Mr. Trump," (Sunday).

“Let me start off on that. I think we know about the hacking and the selective leaking of information. But as a former tech guy, what really concerns me is at least some reports, and we have to get to the bottom of this, is that there were upwards of 1,000 paid Internet trolls working out of a facility in Russia, in effect taking over a series of computers which are then called a botnet. They can then generate news down to specific areas. It’s been reported to me, we have to find this out, specific areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania where you would not have been receiving off of whoever your vendor might have been, Trump versus Clinton, in the waning days of the election, but instead Clinton is sick, or Clinton is taking money from some source, fake news. We’ve also seen as well the fact that if you think about — if you look just, for example, if you googled election hacking during the period leading up to the election and immediately afterwards, you wouldn’t get Fox or ABC or New York Times. What you get is four out of the first five news stories that popped up were Russian propaganda.

Do tell. Well, I cannot ignore a challenge. I did the Google search with the term he suggested, "election hacking," and limited the search to the time leading up to November 8. Here is what I got:

Chatter is getting louder these days about the Mosul offensive against IS nearing its end. Considering the significant territorial gains achieved by Iraqi forces, this is obviously a positive development. The coming victory however will come at a cost, and in the long run, this cost may very well outweigh the short term benefits of this offensive. For now, it is too early to talk about victory. Actually, victory has not even been achieved yet, as the fighting is heading towards the six months mark. But a look into the rear view mirror might already give a few pointers as to where all this is heading…

Initially, when plans to retake Mosul were first drawn up, the city was supposed to fall into Iraqi hands by mid-2016 at the latest. Logistical issues, battefield shaping manoeuvers, as well as Iraqi and international politics however delayed the offensive, which finally got under way by mid-October of last year. By that time, a huge "Mexican army" – Iraqi style – lay siege to the big city in Northern Iraq. The mood among the troops (and the many embedded reporters) was positive, the outlook for quick victory was good. Five and a half months into the battle, and despite major gains against the Jihadis, there isn't much left of that optimism.

Mosul Battle nearing its end

Day after day, news are trickling in about further advances of the Iraqi forces, luring the US public into a false sense of "mission being accomplished". The countdown to full control over Mosul is on, there is no doubt about that, but what will be left of the city at that point is not yet clear. Eastern Mosul was freed by early January, and progression in the old city in central Western Mosul is ongoing. Various Iraqi forces are grinding their way through the last areas held by IS fighters and armoured units are edging closer to the Great Mosque of al-Nuri, from which Abubakr al-Baghdadi, then newly anointed "Caliph" of the so-called Islamic State, made his first and only public appearance, on July 4th 2014.

Contrary to what is stated in most media accounts, he never actually declared the establishment of a new Caliphate during his sermon. That was done a few days earlier via an audio message of his spokesman, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, who was killed by a US drone in August 2016. The symbolic value of the Nuri mosque however is huge and its recapture by Iraqi troops would be something like the Red Army raising its flag over the Reichstag of Berlin, in 1945. No wonder, Baghdadi's troops aren't keen on such a prospect and consider blowing up the old historic place of worship rather than relinquishing control over it. Again, the attitude seems like a distant echo of SS "die hards" fighting to the bitter end in the ruins of their "Reich" that was supposed to last a thousand years.

And just like in Berlin in 1945, the last line of defence is made up of foreign fighters, who know there is only one way out for them… The comparison with the assault on Berlin stops there however, because the war in Iraq will not end with IS losing its Iraqi capital. Instead, the Mosul battlefield is likely to turn into the birth place of the next insurgency. Too many mistakes have been made, are still being made, and too many factors are playing into the hands of those insurgents who prepare for the "day after".

29 March 2017

A fascinating and disturbing time in Washington. An anti-Russian propaganda campaign is running at full tilt and we find Democrats, most of the media and some Republicans spreading innuendo and outright lies about Donald Trump and his alleged ties to Vladimir Putin. I thought Sean Spicer's quip from yesterday's (Tuesday) press conference captured the absurdity:

"If the President puts Russian salad dressing on his salad tonight, somehow that's a Russia connection,"

That's a joke. At least one would think. But the insanity of the anti-Trumpers knows no boundaries. You need only take a look at a diatribe at the Huffington Post put up by Carly Ledbetter , who attacks Spicer for being so cavalier about such a serious matter. Here are a couple of examples from that she cites to reinforce her point that Spicer's sinned against the nation:

28 March 2017

"On Thursday, SpaceX is set to launch yet another satellite into orbit from the Florida coast — but this mission will be far from routine for the company. The Falcon 9 rocket that SpaceX is using for the launch has already flown before. Around the same time last year, it sent cargo to the International Space Station for NASA, and then came back to Earth to land upright on a floating drone ship at sea. This is the first time that SpaceX will attempt to reuse one of its rockets.

It’s a feat that SpaceX has been working toward for more than five years now, and it could be a watershed moment for the aerospace industry. Up until now, practically all rockets that can achieve orbit are either destroyed or go unrecovered after each mission. That means an entirely new rocket — which costs tens to hundreds of millions of dollars to make — has to be built for each launch. But SpaceX’s plan has been to recover its rockets after launch rather than throw them away, so that the vehicles can be used again. That way, the company can save on manufacturing a completely new vehicle, and potentially lower the cost of each mission.

Yes, it is true. I am a space junkie. I think this is wonderful and hope that the re-launched first stage will come back safely. Musk is a wonderful character. He has the Midas touch in inventiveness. He was a participant in creating Paypal. I bought something in Ireland last evening using Paypal. It was a splendidly uncomplicated event. The ability to re-use booster rockets is going to greatly reduce cost to put payloads in orbit. pl

25 March 2017

I learned a long time ago that when you are close to the truth the opposition, if there is any, springs into action and launches a desperate counter attack. That appears to define what happened in the wake of Fox News suspending Judge Andrew Napolitano for the following claim:

that former US President Barack Obama asked British intelligence agency GCHQ to monitor President Donald Trump. . . .

Andrew Napolitano, a political commentator and former New Jersey judge, said on Tuesday Obama used GCHQ in order to "make sure there were no American fingerprints."

"Three intelligence sources have informed Fox News that President Obama went outside the chain of command - he didn't use the NSA, he didn't use the CIA, he didn't use the FBI and he didn't use the Department of Justice," said Napolitano. "He used GCHQ."

Well, the Brits went absolutely bonkers. GCHQ came as close to having a full blown aneurysm as any bureaucratic entity can.

"We've made clear to the administration that these claims are ridiculous and they should be ignored and we've received assurances that these allegations will not be repeated," a Downing Street spokesman told reporters.

One of Judge Napolitano's sources apparently was Larry Johnson. However, according to Johnson, the Judge did not accurately report what Johnson had said. According to Mr. Johnson, President Obama did not order anything. Instead, information collected by GCHQ was passed to people in the U.S. intelligence community and then distributed in an unauthorized manner. To deny that GCHQ did not do anything in response to a request from President Obama, but that does not mean that GCHQ (aka General Communication's Headquarters) was passive and doing nothing.

Let me suggest one possible logical explanation. GCHQ, by virtue of being a foreign entity can (and does) easily and routinely collect electronic communications information in the United States. The Brits can do this without having to worry about FISA courts, probable cause, etc. Want proof? Here is the NY Times piece on 17 March 2017 that cites one example:

I don't get it. Many will think that is my problem in a lot of areas of thought. Nevertheless, Schumer's stated decision to resist Gorsuch's confirmation to the bitter end seems strange to me. The Republicans have the numbers in the senate to change the rules of that body to allow a simple majority confirmation and will surely do that if they must. If they do that, then future confirmations will be made by that rule. Ginsburg and Kennedy are both over 80 and could depart at any time for medical reasons. Are the Democrats gambling that these people can stay on past 2018 and that the GOP will lose control of the senate ? That is a very risky bet. If they lose that bet they could end up with a 7 to 2 conservative majority in SCOTUS for a very long time. We must remember that Harry Reid in his time as majority leader changed the senate rules to allow simple majority confirmations on all non-SCOTUS presidential appointments. It also occurs to me (as a non-lawyer) that I know of no requirement in constitution or law for there to be committee hearings before a full vote in the senate. pl

24 March 2017

"Israeli warplanes reportedly delivered airstrikes against Syrian army targets in the Qasioun Mount region near Damascus early on March 22nd. Israeli jets allegedly carried out four rounds of airstrikes. There were no reports about casualties or damage suffered by Syrian government forces.

Initially reports about the incident appeared in pro-militant social media accounts and then were widely spread by the Israeli media. If confirmed, the recent raids were the fourth round of airstrikes attributed to Israel in Syria in less than a week.

The reports about the fresh Israeli airstrikes in Syria came just a few hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue hitting targets in Syria. Netanyahu made this claim during a visit to China, adding that he had informed Putin of Israel’s intentions.

The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Israel’s Ambassador to Moscow to protest an Israeli military strike near the Syrian city of Palmyra last Friday. This was after Israeli jets breached Syrian air space and attacked a military target near Palmyra on the night of March 17th. According to Israel’s Channel 2, the Israeli strike hit close to Russian troops. In turn, the Syrian military fired several anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli warplanes and claimed that one of them was destroyed and another one hit. The Israel Defense Forces denied these claims and said that one missile fired from the ground was intercepted by the Arrow 2 anti-ballistic missile.

Following the incident, Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, threatened to destroy Syrian air defense systems. “The next time the Syrians use their air defense systems against our planes we will destroy them without the slightest hesitation,” Lieberman said on Israeli public radio.

At the same time, Israel continued to push the narrative that Russia and other powers must move to limit Iran’s military strength in Syria. The director-general of Israel’s Intelligence Ministry, Chagai Tzuriel, repeated this in an interview to Reuters on March 21st." southfront

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After the earlier Israeli strikes near Palmyra there was a lot of chatter here on SST to the effect that the strikes either did not happen or were greatly exaggerated in meaning, but these strikes are different.

Jabal Qasioun looks down on the city of Damascus. It looms over the city. In better times Syrian middle class families flocked to the good road that zig-zags up the mountain to picnic. There were a lot of little road side food carts and trucks with gaudy shade umbrellas where soft drinks, ice cream and food were sold.

These strikes were not out in the desert somewhere or on the grounds of a somewhat distant airfield. These were right on top of you if you are Damascene. You could look up from your roof top and see the flashes, hear the boom, feel the building shake.

This is clearly defiance. We are the Jewish state! We can f---k with you because we are stronger in character than all of you! We are talking to all of you, especially you Syrian dogs and you Muscovite keepers of dogs. And if you dare to shoot back at us, we will have our American dogs tear your legs off!

Bibi and Liberman are happy with themselves, but what will happen if the Russians decide that they are not just keepers of the despised Syrian dogs? What then? pl

"The post came amid circulating rumors that a major part of fighters of militant groups involved in the Turkish Operation Euphrates Shield has been redeploying from northern Aleppo to northern Hama via the Turkish territory. These fighters will allegedly participate in the ongoing HTS-led offensive.

However, there were no independent confirmation this and no ACV-15 vehicles were spotted at the Hama battlefield yet. Step News Agency’s photos are the only evidence of such a move and the geolocation of photos are not clear.

If the rumors are confirmed, this will mean that Ankara decided to increase its support to militants in Syria amid no progress in the Astana talks and the Turkish inability to achieve its own goals in the country via diplomatic means." Southfront

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If this picture really shows a Turkish made ACV-15 fighting vehicle in the jihadi led offensive north of Hama City, then the case is stronger for Turkish government duplicity in supporting an offensive south out of the rebel redoubt that is Idlib Province. In the past the Turkish government has transported rebel fighters from their lodgment north of Al-Bab to Hatay Province by roads north of their border with Syria.

If this is what has occurred, then it is likely that the Astana talks are just a blind for Turkish government strategems intended to help the jihadis and other rebels defeat the Syrian Government. pl

Devin Nunes, the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, is either a hero or mentally deranged. The Democrats are opting for the crazy diagnosis. I believe he is a hero. Mr. Nunes received information earlier this week from a whistleblower, but not you typical whistleblower. The "normal" whistleblower takes information, usually classified, to a member of the press in order to bring attention to wrong doing or lies by the government. He or she goes outside of channels. In this regard the Nunes' whistleblower is different. This person passed classified material to a person cleared for the classified material, i.e. Nunes.

Nunes was shown information that had been withheld from the House and Senate oversight committees. His reaction upon receiving the material is telling. He clearly was shocked by the proof that intelligence reports containing the names of Trump campaign officials had been produced and disseminated to in violation of normal protocols. You simply do not put the name of a U.S. citizen in an intelligence report. It is supposed to be "minimized." In other words, masked. Our principal foreign intelligence agencies--NSA, CIA, DIA and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency--are supposed to collect on foreigners.

Private John Fay (close collateral to the Langs. He came from Ireland with them in 1827) 9th New York Volunteer Cavalry Regiment. He was in the Army of the Potomac Cavalry Corps (Sheridan's command) He was in the massed mounted cavalry flank attacks at 3rd Winchester, Fisher's Hill and Cedar Creek. Oddly, Claude Devereux, the protagonist of STT, (my trilogy of novels) was depicted by me as having been in the charge at Cedar Creek. He was my great grandmother Lizzie Fay's uncle. John Fay was five foot, five inches tall. Perhaps that is why he ended up in the cavalry.

Several Langs who were contract infantry regiment teamsters with the Army of the Cumberland. They were at Shiloh and ultimately in the March to the Sea. They were all drivers for the same regiment.

"The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has sent large reinforcements to northern Hama. By this move, the SAA aims to stall the advance of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies which are now deployed in about 6 kilometers from the provincial capital.

According to sources embedded with the SAA, a large number of Tiger Forces members was deployed to the Hama front from the eastern countryside of Aleppo. The newly deployed units were mostly fire support groups equipped with Grad BM-21 multiple rocket launcher systems and 2S19 Msta-S 152 mm self-propelled howitzers.

Furthermore, 5th Storming Corps units deployed in Palmyra were relocated to boost government defenses around Hama.

The 5th Storming Corps is well-equipped due to a sponsorship from Russia and has shown itself as a capable military force during the operations near Palmyra." southfront

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Well, pilgrims, the old turcopolier and TTG told the world that AQ (in all its inglorious manifestations) should not have been allowed to rest, recover and consolidate its position in Idlib Province after their expulsion from Aleppo City.

This offensive directed to the south from Idlib is the fruit of that badly flawed decision on the part of R+6.

Great things are being done in the east in the fight for Raqqa, but if Hama Province falls to the jihadis/unicorns a lot of that will count for little. pl

22 March 2017

Several sources have reported an SDF attack across Lake Assad just west of the Tabqa Airbase and Tabqa dam. Some of the reports are a little wild saying U.S. Marines are part of the assault force. Some are showing photos of airborne assaults. I think these can be dismissed as bogus exaggerations. What is happening is a well planned and well executed surprise offensive that has become characteristic of YPG/SDF operations. It was a river crossing supported by an air mobile insertion. The Military Times had this to say:

"U.S. aircraft have transported more than 500 Syrian Arab Coalition fighters and provided them with close air support in an operation to take the Taqba dam. The operation launched yesterday is intended to “reclaim the last route in and out of Raqqa,” said Pentagon spokesman Eric Pahon."

This series of tweets from @24Raqqa made over a four hour period sums up this operation as of an hour ago.

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- Five Helicopters started the Airdrop operation backed by fighter jets. US and SDF fighters controlled the peninsula area and Shurfa town.

- Daesh evacuated civilians from that area a while ago for unknown reasons and prevented any refugees from East Aleppo to enter.

- SDF fighters are crossing the lake to the newly controlled area after securing it.

- About five fighter jets are flying in the area to prevent any Daesh unit to arrive.

- It is not true about controlling Aleppo-Raqqa road at that area. US and SDF fighters trying to secure their captured area.

- Aleppo-Raqqa road is still open and used by civilians.

- SDF fighters keep crossing the lake with special military boats to the new controlled areas.

- Raids bombed locations in Tabqa city west of Raqqa.

- More fighters arrived in the last two hours and many heavy vehicles were transported to the new controlled area.

- SDF backed by US forces and heavy vehicles started before one hour moving south and controlled the Aleppo-Raqqa road.

- SDF backed by US forces are moving to Euphrates dam.

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The DOD spokesman said 500 SDF fighters were inserted by U.S. aircraft. I doubt all 500 fighters were brought in that way. It is much more likely that a smaller force was brought in with their Special Forces advisors to seize and secure the landing area so that the bulk of the SDF forces could land by boat along with their vehicles. The talk about Marines being involved probably came from Marine Ospreys used for the air landing. This is a YPG/SDF operation with Special Forces advisors and significant Coalition air support. This was always part of the Wrath of Euphrates plan to encircle Raqqa. We knew it was coming. Yet they still appeared to achieve tactical surprise. I attribute much of this to the lightness of the YPG/SDF forces. There is little logistical build up beyond pulling up your socks, tying your boot laces, filling your magazines and stepping forth. (Yeah, I know I'm exaggerating, but you get my point.) They and their Special Forces advisors clearly favor maneuver over firepower.

I have found photos which may or may not be related to this assault. Although a unit patch can be clearly seen as well as a watermark, I cannot determine what unit this is. Any information on this would be greatly appreciated.

If new incremental costs per barrel for US shale oil are as low as described in this article the political power of the Arab States of the Gulf is markedly reduced. It should be remembered that shale is only one portion of the ever growing wealth of petroleum reserves being discovered on US territory. The new Permian Basin reserves in Texas as well as those on the north slope of Alaska come to mind. pl

"Israeli warplanes reportedly delivered airstrikes against Syrian army targets in the the Qasioun Mount region near Damascus last night.

Israeli jets allegedly carried out four rounds of airstrikes. There were no reports about casualties or damage suffered by Syrian government forces.

Alleged photo of the Qasioun Mount after Israeli airstrikes

Initially reports about the incident appeared in pro-militant social media accounts and then were widely spread by the Israeli media.

If confirmed, the recent raids were the fourth round of airstrikes attributed to Israel in Syria in less than a week.

The Syrian Defense Ministry and the Israeli Defense Forces have not commented on the issue.

The reports about the fresh Israeli airstrikes in Syria came just few hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue hitting targets in Syria.

“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he has told Russian President Vladimir Putin that Israeli forces will continue airstrikes in Syria if they deem it necessary.

“If there is feasibility from an intelligence and military standpoint – we attack and so it will continue,” Netanyahu said during a visit to China, adding that he had informed Putin of Israel’s intentions."

According to the Jerusalem Post, the Israeli PM also dismissed reports that Russia was insisting that Israel cease its military operations on Syrian territory,” the Russian state-run RT television network reported."" South Front

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You can construct a scenario in which Russia decides to defend the airspace of its ally Syria and fires on Israeli aircraft engaged in attacks in Lebanon that have nothing to do with transshipments of materiel to Hizbullah . The reaction of the United States to this is, for me, unpredictable in light of the existence of Donald Trump as CinC of the US armed forces. What an armed participation of US air forces in such a war between Israel and Russia would lead to is also unpredictable. An escalatory ladder? Why not? The tail is now truly trying to wag the dog. pl

21 March 2017

"The Islamic State (IS) terrorist group has published online photos of the seized humanitarian aid, intended for besieged Syrian troops in the city of Deir ez-Zor. Acording to terrorists, the aid was seized on Monday. The photos were posted by the IS Amaq news agency.

According to the published photos, terrorists managed to capture containers and fuel for Syrian military. Mistakenly, the cargo landed not in the city, but several kilometers to the north-west of it, on IS positions.

Some time back I suggested that in a long series of supply drops by parachute into a perimeter like Deir al-Zor some would end up outside the perimeter in enemy hands. At the time I was assured that modern guided cargo parachutes would prevent this. This made the old turcopolier feel sad and obsolete. But, now, we have this picture of a pallet of fuel drums. IS took the picture. The turcopolier feels better about himself. pl

20 March 2017

"David’s Sling, meant to counter medium-range missiles possessed by Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, will be operational in early April.

This marks the completion of Israel’s missile defense system, he said.

That includes the Arrow, designed to intercept ballistic missiles in the stratosphere from long-range threats like Iran and Iron Dome that defends against short-range rockets from Gaza. The official spoke anonymously in line with protocol.

Israeli deployed its Arrow system Friday when Syria fired missiles at its jets on a mission to destroy a weapons convoy bound for Hezbollah." Washpost

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The deployment of this system will mark a turning point. As I have written on SST many times Israel has been deterred since 2006 from attacks on the Tabouleh Line -2 (Hizbullah missile and rocket systems). This system plus Iron Dome may change that calculus altogether and Israel may become a great deal more aggressive not only in Lebanon but over Syria as well while looking to demonstrate the cost of any resistance to Israeli military power and political hegemony. pl

19 March 2017

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised that Tel Aviv will continue to attack Hezbollah facilities, located in Syria. The statement was made just a day after Israel carried out airstrikes on the territory of the Arab country and admitted this fact.

On Saturday, the Israeli Prime Minister said that the Friday’s airstrikes targeted a Hezbollah convoy, which transported weapons for the resistance movement.

“When we identify attempts to transfer advanced weapons to Hezbollah and we have intelligence and it is operationally feasible, we act to prevent it,” Netanyahu said. “That’s how it was yesterday and that’s how we shall continue to act.”

Meanwhile, on Friday, Israeli ambassador to Moscow Gary Koren was summoned by the Russian Foreign Ministry for clarification of circumstances of the airstrikes of the Israeli Air Force in Syria. The move was taken just a day after Israeli envoy presented his credentials to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Syrian military called the latest Israeli airstrikes “a desperate attempt” to support the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group, operating on the territory of the Arab country. According to a statement of the Syrian Army, the Israeli attack actually was aimed at positions of government troops in order to weaken their forces, fighting against the IS in the region.

Reportedly, Syrian military have strengthened their presence in the southwestern part of Quneitra province, including the Golan Heights region, after the Israeli airstrikes.

Earlier, it was reported that Israel provided medical treatment for Syrian militants and terrorists, transporting them to the Israeli-occupied Syrian territory of Golan Heights. Last September, an Israeli lawmaker said that the Israeli side was also directly aiding the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (previously known as the al-Nusra Front) terrorist group in the Golan Heights.

Since 1967, Damascus and Tel Aviv have been technically at war due to Israel’s continued occupation of Syria’s Golan Heights." southfront

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Well, pilgrims, it does not seem that the "subtle message" made much of an impression in the land of Zion. I said they are hard headed and they are. They don't believe in reciprocity. Whatever is yours is theirs and whatever is theirs is theirs.

Back in the day when I was chief of liaison to IDF General Staff intelligence I repeatedly tried to get them to give us some worthless piece of information that I had selected for that purpose and they NEVER came through. On one occasion they said they knew that what I had asked for was unimportant but that they did not want to establish a precedent. I would have cut them off as a lesson but if I had (or could have) they would have gone to CIA who IMO would have been glad to screw DIA by giving them what they wanted.

So, the strike in question was near Palmyra far from the Lebanese border. This supports the belief that the strike was intended to assist IS which is now hard pressed by R+6 forces in that area. pl

18 March 2017

"Coup or legitimate political pushback depends on which side of the fence one is standing on. There are two competing narratives to choose from and there is inevitably considerable gray area in between depending on what turns out to be true. One narrative, coming from the Trump camp, is that President Obama used the nation’s intelligence and law enforcement agencies plus judicious leaks of classified information and innuendo to the media to sabotage Trump during and after the campaign. This was largely done by spreading malicious claims about the campaign’s associates, linking them to criminal activity and even suggesting that they had been subverted to support Russian interests. As of this date, none of the “Manchurian candidate” allegations have been supported by evidence because they are not true. The intention of the Obama/Clinton campaign is to explain the election loss in terms acceptable to the Democratic Party, to hamstring and delegitimize the new administration coming in, and to bring about the resignation or impeachment of Donald Trump. It is in all intents and purposes a coup, though without military intervention, as it seeks to overturn a completely legal and constitutional election.

The contrary viewpoint is that team Trump’s ties to Russia constitute an existential national security threat, that the Russians did steal information relevant to the campaign, did directly involve themselves in the election to discredit U.S. democracy and elect Trump, and will now benefit from the process, thereby doing grave damage to our country and its interests. Adversarial activity undertaken since the election is necessary, designed to make sure the new president does not alter or eliminate the documentary record in intelligence files regarding what took place and to limit Trump’s ability to make serious errors in any recalibration with Moscow. In short, Trump is a dangerous man who might be in bed with an enemy power and has to be watched closely and restrained. Doing so is necessary to preserve our democratic system." Giraldi

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This article is a balanced view of the political disaster emerging in the US. As such it may suffer from the basic flaw often contained in "balanced" views. The two partisan views are mutually exclusive. Either the Obama Administration sought information useful to HC's campaign or they did not. Either civilian career employees conspired to destroy Trump's candidacy or they did not. Either the IC chiefs conspired to get GCHQ to produce "evidence" against Trump or they did not.

Trump is certainly a less than optimal president. Impetuous, ignorant of other than his narrow business interests, grossly vain, ridiculous haircut, gold plated apartment in a building named for him. Yes! He is bloody awful in many ways, but he IS president of the United States and if he is removed from office by what will be seen by the "Deplorables" as an agitprop driven conspiracy of the bi-coastal elites, the long term political stability of the United States will be damaged. The question Mika raised by saying on national TV that it is the job of the MSM to dictate the content of the collective national mind will be answered in the negative by many.

And then there was the performance of the Germans at the White House presser. The presumption and arrogance displayed by German journalists in daring to lecture the President of the United States was breath-taking. I am not a big fan of NATO, and have not been since the fall of the Soviet Union. I certainly have been opposed to the eastward expansion of NATO to Russia's doorstep. This expansion seems to me to be driven by a mindless jingoism that seeks an enemy. Angela Merkel does not seem to share my opinion. She stated clearly in her prepared remarks that NATO is very important to Germany, but at the same time she told us all that Germany, a rich country, will not be able to reach a 2% of GDP level of expenditure on its own defense until 2025. Say what?

I suppose the left and the foreign policy Borg imagines that President Pence will be manageable. Perhaps he will be. Or perhaps he won't be. Both statements cannot be true. pl

17 March 2017

JERUSALEM — Syria fired missiles at Israeli warplanes early Friday after a series of Israeli airstrikes inside Syria — a rare military exchange between the two hostile neighbors that was confirmed by both sides.

The Israeli military said its aircraft struck several targets in Syria and were back in Israeli-controlled airspace when several anti-aircraft missiles were launched from Syria toward the Israeli jets.

Israeli aerial defense systems intercepted one of the missiles, the army said, without elaborating. It would not say whether any other missiles struck Israeli-held territory, but said the safety of Israeli civilians and Israeli aircraft was “not compromised.” (Washington Post)

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All sorts of wild rumors were flying about after this exchange this morning. Most of them, if not all of them, are not true. Even the U.S. is downplaying the whole affair. A DOD spokesman said this in a briefing. "I do not have any particular reaction for you. We are certainly aware of it. This is a matter between Israel and Syria and not something we were a party to.”

The best explanation I’ve seen for this is offered by Elijah J. Magnier over his twitter account.

5. This explains why Syria didn't use its S-300 but limited itself to already existing anti-air missiles and a "warning to Israel".

6. As long as Israel hits targets in Damascus airport or warehouses on the way to Lebanon (not inland like today) Russia won't intervene.

7. The recent visit of Netanyahu to Moscow failed to reach its objectives in convincing Russia to switch against Iran and Hezbollah.

8. Israel tried to "test the ground" today but will "close the incident" and accept the message behind it, aware Syria is Russia’s playground. (@EjmAlrai)

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I agree with Magnier. If Bibi didn’t receive the message during his pilgrimage to Moscow last week, I would think he got it loud and clear this morning. Vladimir Vladimirovich is calling the shots now in this part of the Mediterranean... and he wants a quiet, orderly neighborhood.

16 March 2017

"President Trump has said himself on numerous occasions that Republicans could simply let Obamacare die on its own, allowing Democrats to continue to pay the political price for it. But then he always clarifies that the GOP won't do that.

"I actually talked with [House Speaker] Paul [Ryan] and the group about just doing nothing for two years, and the Dems would come begging to do something because ’17 is going to be catastrophic price increases ... and they will come to us,” Trump said in January at a Republican retreat, adding: "If we waited two years, it will explode like you’ve never seen an explosion."

That idea was also pushed Wednesday by a sometime Trump foe, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). On Hugh Hewitt's radio show, Graham suggested letting Obamacare "collapse" on its own. "Here’s what I would prefer he do," Graham said of Trump. "If he can’t get us in a good spot where we all feel comfortable, we’ve improved Obamacare dramatically, which we told people we would: Let it collapse."

When Hewitt pushed back on the idea, Graham added: "Democrats are not going to lift a finger to help President Trump. I would do collapse-and-replace if you can't get a good, solid fix to Obamacare using reconciliation."" Washpost

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Graham supporting Trump? Cats and dogs sleeping together? How can this be?

Do the Republicans really have a choice? They are in complete disarray internally with regard to the terms of a replacement law. There are various bits of tax law embedded in the present Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). This supposedly blocks Trump proceeding to a proposal to revise the federal tax code, a measure IMO essential to Trump's hope for an economic boom.

If I were Trump, I would let Obamacare die a seemingly inevitable death and move on to tax reform. pl

15 March 2017

Elijah J. Magnier wrote an excellent review of the Syrian situation in his piece, "The roles of the US, Russia, Turkey, Iran and Israel in Syria: moving towards the end of the war." I heartedly recommend it. Within that piece is the following passage.

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“Today, it is obvious that the Iranian strategy prevailed over that of Saudi Arabia and Qatar in Syria and managed to sustain a friendly government in Syria. Iran is also playing a positive role in the rapprochement between Baghdad and Damascus, resulting in military collaboration and the air bombing of ISIS targets by the Iraqi Air Force in Syria.

Moreover, there is an on-going discussion between Damascus and Tehran for the construction of an Iranian naval base in the oil terminal port of Banias, 55 km from Latakia. If realized (it may take few years before it becomes operational) it will boost the crippled Syrian economy. Throughout the years of war, Iran has been supplying Syria with oil, mainly when the jihadists of ISIS and Al-Qaeda controlled the northern eastern oil fields.” (elihjm.wordpress.com)

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I seriously doubt this proposed Iranian port facility will be anything like the Russian facility at Tartus. The Russians signed an agreement with Damascus in January to give Russia sovereignty over their port facilities at Tartus for 49 years. This sounds a lot like the old agreement with Ukraine over Sevastopol. They plan on dredging the port and constructing floating docks to berth eleven ships. That will be quite a base. The port facility at Banias will necessarily be much smaller, but I wonder if that agreement will be on the same terms as the Tartus agreement.

Only two days ago, The Fars News Agency reported that the IRGC Deputy Commander for political affairs Brigadier General Rasul Sanayee Rad denied Iran had any plans for a naval port facility at Banias. He was quoted as saying, “Our presence in Syria consists in the presence of military advisers at the request of the Syrian government. We do not plan to create a military base in the Syrian province of Latakia. Such an atmosphere is being formed to destabilize the situation in the region and create disagreements between countries.” Perhaps the Brigadier General left himself some wiggle room in denying the creation of a military base rather than a port facility.

The Israelis certainly believe the rumors of an Iranian naval base at Banias. Seems this was the prime reason for Netanyahu’s recent pilgrimage to Moscow on 9 March to talk with Putin. Netanyahu took his head of military intelligence, Major General Herzi Halevi, with him to help get his message across.

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"In a meeting with Putin in Moscow, Netanyahu said Persia had made “an attempt to destroy the Jewish people that did not succeed” some 2,500 years ago, an event commemorated through the Jewish holiday of Purim, which Israel will celebrate starting Saturday night and lasting in some places until Monday.

“Today there is an attempt by Persia’s heir, Iran, to destroy the state of the Jews,” Netanyahu said. “They say this as clearly as possible and inscribe it on their ballistic missiles.”

Adopting a conciliatory tone, Putin said that the events described by Netanyahu had taken place “in the fifth century BCE.”

“We now live in a different world. Let us talk about that now,” Putin said."(Times of Israel)

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I seriously doubt Bibi’s silver tongue made much of an impression on Vladimir Vladimirovich. This is a far different world today than it was in the fifth century BC… or for that matter, a far different world than it was a year ago. Bibi should be quivering in his boots at the prospects of what his world will look like a year or two from now. I get the feeling Putin left Netanyahu with the same stark message that Walter White gave his wife.

“I am not in danger, Skyler. I am the danger! A guy opens his door and gets shot and you think that of me? No. I am the one who knocks!”

My thanks to Mathew and BraveNewWorld for pointing out this news in comments they made earlier today. And my thanks to the chairman of the board for that fine song. For some reason the thought of an Iranian port on the Mediterranean just brought that song to mind.

"Considering the increasing US ground presence in Syria, US-led forces will have enough military capabilities to launch a storm of Raaqah and to after some time seize the city. In turn, Syrian government forces will likely make an attempt to reach a group of strategic sites southwest of Raqqah: Tabqa, the Tabqa Airbase and the Tabqa dam.

If done, the government will be able to limit the US presence in the country with northeastern Syria. However, government forces will also need to secure the area of Deir Ezzor and its oil fields from ISIS. These efforts will draw a significant means and capabilities from the Syrian military which will delay operations against Hayat Tahir al-Sham in the western part of the Aleppo province." South Front

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An interesting snippet.

This is the first time I have seen this. As you know I think they are right, but the US/Syrian government problem could be fixed with a kind word. Sad. pl

14 March 2017

"Naftali Bennett and Lebanese president agree: There's no line between Hezbollah and Lebanese state. Lebanese must realize another war with Israel means Lebanon will be sent back to Middle Ages, Bennett tells Haaretz. " haaretz

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Naftali Bennett evidently wants himself to be thought Israel's Curtis Lemay. Lemay's B-29s killed 100,000 Japanese civilians in one night over Tokyo.

I suppose this is all political BS reflecting NB's desire to replace Bibi at some future date. Bibi is looking like something approaching its "sell buy" date. He is being investigated for graft. He has also sued a reporter for asserting in print that his wife treats him like a not very valued dog. NB is watching in the light of ever increasing Israeli xenophobia and belligerence towards its Arab neighbors. Israel has for many years sought (successfully) to use American leverage to exclude Hizbullah from Lebanese government in spite of its electoral power. This is now at an end with Michel Aoun's statement that Hizbullah s an integral part of the Lebanese state. In response Bennett threatens a general application of the theory of strategic bombing if Hizbullah fires into Israel.

Well pilgrims, the trouble with that is the actual separation (as I have written before) of the Hizbullah fortified Belt (Tabouleh Line II) and its fortified firing positions for 20 to 30 K of advanced model artillery rockets with longer range and guided missiles from the civil infrastructure and population of Lebanon.

In 2006 Israel attempted to breach Tabouleh Line I and failed. Nose to nose ground combat against HB headbangers in prepared positions wasn't something they could face up to. Air power? There was a lot of fairly small caliber anti-aircraft fire over HB lines and Israeli pilots evidently discovered that a "golden BB" (small arms hit) would kill them as dead as any gentile pilot. As a result accuracy in their air attacks on HB positions went WAY DOWN. At the same time the IDF (then headed by a bird man) carried out a country-wide air offensive against Lebanese civilian infrastructure and people. This wrecked the place but it had ZERO effect on the outcome of the 2006 War. HB moved back to prepared positions a few kilometers north to allow the UN to place peacekeeping forces between them and the Israelis and then re-construction in Lebanon began yet again.

A re-run of Israel's 2006 plan will prove nothing except to demonstrates that the IDF has no ability to keep HB from firing heavily into Israeli populated areas. The IDF knows this. Evidently Bennett does not. pl

12 March 2017

Mike Bartlett’s King Charles III at the Harmon Theatre for Performing Arts (directed by Studio Theatre’s David Muse) has caught a wave of popularity that draws on the American people’s innate fascination with anything having to do with the British royals. The play also exposes the very modern feminist yearnings of those queens, princesses and consorts of yore who, finding themselves mere ornaments in the royal pageant, yearn like Lady Macbeth to become “unsexed” and battle with men on an equal playing field. Likewise, Prince William’s wife, Kate Middleton (the Duchess of Cambridge), and Charles’s Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall, must content themselves with acting through their husbands whom they must convince, cajole and bully to “screw their courage to the sticking place” and “ride the tide in the affairs of men . . . which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.”

Now to the plot: after waiting around for the better part of six decades, Charles has been elevated to the throne by the death of his mother, Elizabeth II. In referential Shakespearean iambic pentameters, Bartlett’s Charles bemoans the shrunken self he has become during the long wait.

My better thoughts—they are

From scratch, slow cooked and brewed with time.

My life has been a ling’ring for the throne

Charles, however, is somewhat of a royalist Jacobin. He feels strongly about the freedom of the press despite the press’s having routinely savaged the royal family over the years. Having previously paid little attention to the flow of Parliamentary business, Charles is taken aback when the Prime Minister during his first audience with the King requests His Majesty’s approval of legislation passed by Parliament purporting to restrict the press from invading the privacy rights of individuals.

Charles’s refusal as a matter of constitutional principle to sign the press bill triggers a constitutional crisis as both parties coalesce to defend the Parliament’s supremacy against a King who has chosen to re-assert long abandoned royal prerogatives to nullify legislation -- prerogatives that have not been exercised since the days of George III. Charles has consulted Walter Bagehot, a 19th century authority on the unwritten English Constitution, and is disconsolate to learn that his role is limited by precedent to being consulted, proffering advice and, in extremis, warning the government of the day when it appears to be embarking on precipitous action.

When the parties push back demanding that he sign the bill, Charles rallies and moves to dissolve Parliament and call for a snap election. Parliament refuses to dissolve itself. Riots break out in the major cities of the United Kingdom, and there is a fear that the rioters will storm Buckingham Palace. The King moves additional troops onto the Palace grounds and stations a tank in front of the Palace.

In the meantime, we are introduced to the next generation of Royals: Prince William (second in line for the throne) and his wife, Kate Middleton, the exemplar of good sturdy Anglo-Saxon stock; and William’s feckless younger brother, Prince Harry, who inhabits the demi-monde of swinging London, takes up with Jessica, an artist from the West Indies, and seems to want to have nothing further to do with his father and stepmother, Camilla.

The Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition both come forward to demand an audience with Prince William and Kate. They are there, the politicians state, to reassert the constitutional prerogatives of the Parliament against usurpation by the crown. They drive home the principle that Parliament is “the decider” in the British constitutional system by threatening legislation stripping the Crown of whatever is left of its royal prerogatives unless Charles signs the press bill. It is at this point that Kate gives William a good spine stiffening, telling him that he is duty bound to stand up to Charles for the sake of both the crown and their son, George, who will someday be King. Camilla, for her part, counsels Charles equally steadfastly to resurrect and breathe new life into the fast vanishing royal prerogatives and urges him to not go all wobbly on his duty to the crown and its prerogatives.

Kate and William conspire with the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition to launch a coup against Charles. Kate pushes William into the “sticking place” of mediating the constitutional dispute between Crown and Parliament. When Charles is about to make a speech to the nation giving the rationale for his actions, Kate and William wrest the microphone from his hands, demand that he sign a letter of abdication and play the “grandchild card” to seal the deal (Charles realizes belatedly that he will never see his grandchildren again if he doesn’t sign). Prince Harry (like the Shakespeare character) gives up his dissolute ways, ditches Jess and takes his place as an heir to the throne. The play ends with the coronation of William and Kate and Charles slumping off despondently stage right.

As for the actors, Jeanne Paulsen as Camilla and Allison White as Kate have the requisite Thatcherite steel for their parts, but one wishes that Robert Joy’s Charles were a bit less wimpish. In keeping with his Shakespearean meme, Bartlett’s Prince Harry is clearly meant to evoke Falstaff’s companion, Prince Hal, but Harry White lacks the range required to transform Prince William from the louche rogue reveling in the world of sex, drugs and rock ‘n roll on the mean streets of London to something approximating the transformation that Prince Hal makes at his father’s deathbed when he realizes that he will soon be King with all the attendant responsibilities of 15th century kingship.

The play benefits from catching a wave in the affairs of politics that has thrust it into the midst of the national debate—both here in the USA and in Britain. When the play was first produced in 2014, it was considered a witty, but a counterfactual, send-up of both the monarchy and Britain. The conventional wisdom was that it couldn’t happen there (or here). But, first with Brexit and, then, the Tsunami that crashed into America on November 8, 2016, many playgoers now see the play as a metaphor for the “Age of Trump,” in which a new President, aided and abetted by the malevolent likes of Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller, seeks to deconstruct and smash the old order, the Constitution be damned. In Mike Bartlett’s London, something akin to our emerging notion of the “deep state” struck back to wrest the crown from Charles and return the country to normalcy. Fifty days on into the new Trump Administration, is the same thing happening in America?

King Charles III ends its run at the Harmon Theatre Arts on March 18. If you can’t get a ticket or enough of the British royals, download the superb Netflix production, “The Crown,” for a reasonably close approximation of the history of the royals from the abdication of Edward VIII through the resignation of Prime Minister Winston Churchill and his successor’s (Anthony Eden’s) Suez debacle. John Lithgow’s award-winning reincarnation as Churchill is not to be missed.

“The Crown” provides a flashback for King Charles III as it depicts a monarch, Elizabeth II, who comes to the throne believing she has some power, but finds out that it would be inappropriate to suggest to an old and doddering Prime Minister that it’s time to go. There is no power even, as she soon learns, to regulate her own domestic affairs as Elizabeth finds herself continuously overruled by various courtiers, cabinet ministers, Bishops and dowager queens who tell her that she can’t take her husband’s name, can’t take lodgings outside Buckingham Palace and can’t, as head of the church, sanction the marriage of her sister, Margaret, to a divorced commoner.

You have only five more days to see King Charles III during its current DC run. Not to worry, though, the American public have five more years to enjoy and dissect “The Crown” as it takes us through the last six decades of the second Elizabethan era, and many will eagerly be awaiting Netflix’s take on the Queen’s opinion of Donald Trump when she meets him during his proposed state visit to Britain, provided of course that he survives his current struggle with the Acela Corridor Establishment (sometimes referred to on this blog as “The Borg) who have furiously united to drive him from office.

"The moral of the recent melee at Middlebury College, where students shouted down and chased away a controversial social scientist, isn’t just about free speech, though that’s the rubric under which the ugly incident has been tucked. It’s about emotional coddling. It’s about intellectual impoverishment.

Somewhere along the way, those young men and women — our future leaders, perhaps — got the idea that they should be able to purge their world of perspectives offensive to them. They came to believe that it’s morally dignified and politically constructive to scream rather than to reason, to hurl slurs in place of arguments.

They have been done a terrible disservice. All of us have, and we need to reacquaint ourselves with what education really means and what colleges do and don’t owe their charges.

Physical safety? Absolutely. A smooth, validating passage across the ocean of ideas? No. If anything, colleges owe students turbulence, because it’s from a contest of perspectives and an assault on presumptions that truth emerges — and, with it, true confidence." Bruni

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SST exists to provide a space in which diverse ideas can be expressed, not as attacks on writers, but as a search for explanations of reality. If you insult people at SST you will be banned. If you are unnecessarily vile in your language you will be banned. You will not be banned on SST for having opinions that are outside the orthodoxy now emerging in the world. pl

11 March 2017

The leftist media in the US keeps goading Trump to execute all his various programs by sometime later this week. Among his goals/aims/legislation is his stated intent to "put paid" to IS and presumably to hang Baghdadi from a sour apple tree. (obscure WBS reference)

Well, pilgrims, I think THE PLAN will not be announced. It will merely be executed, AND IT HAS COMMENCED!

James Mattis, in his generalissimo mode of action has, IMO, been given the imperial wave of dismissal and sent forth to destroy IS. "Make it so!"

The signs abound:

1. Much greater coordination and "de-confliction" between the US and Russia in air operations against IS (and hayat tahrir al-sham). I note that "hayat tahrir al-sham" has now been designated as a terrorist organization by the US government. This makes them fully available under the AUMF as playmates in the big game of kill the jihadi terrorists.

2. The insertion of a USMC artillery battery and support troops to provide fire support for operations in the Raqqa area. (Presumably the battery position is north of Raqqa in SDF dominated territory.

3. Several hundred soldiers from the 75th Ranger Regiment have been positioned in and around Manbij to referee among the Turks, SAA, SDF et al for the evident reason of keeping unwanted actors out of the coming battle to take the supposed caliphate's capital.

4. The 2nd Brigade Combat Team of the 82nd Airborne Division has been deployed to Kuwait from which General Votel the Centcom commander says it will be deployed to the north. One can assume that a "slice" of division and corps level artillery, armor and other assets will go with them.

I estimate these signs to indicate that Trump and his generalissimo have decided to roll the iron dice and commit whatever force is necessary to destroy IS in both Syria and Iraq.

Bravo! But I wonder how well Trump's psyche will hold up when paratroopers from the 82nd start arriving at Dover AFB in significant numbers. War kills. pl

09 March 2017

In the "God of War" methodology (Napoleon I) a coalition and set of alliances was recruited in the context of the unification of Europe, but it was always understood that French interests would come first.

In WW2, the interests of the US & British Empire came first over those of France (who fought valiantly in Italy and 1944-45 Europe), Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Free Poland (they took Monte Casino and jumped into the maelstrom at a "Bridge too Far.") etc.

It is always thus. Nothing is "fair." Get that through your heads.

Now we have a coalition among Syria, Russia and Iran to defeat Sunni extremism and preserve the Syrian state as an example of the possibility of multi-confessional governments in the ME.

This, IMO is obstructed by the mindless insistence of the US on the overthrow of the Syrian government. Can it be more clear that this policy, long established by propaganda, is the goal of the hyper-nationalist Israeli interest of "The Lobby" in the US?

The Russians want better relations with the US. They want this to avoid their eventual submission to a junior partner status with China in which the menace of the Golden Horde's repression comes again. (Look it up)

To that end the Russians have (IMO) dragged Syria to a climactic battle in the east at Raqqa . These areas are critical to US goals in the ME but not to those of the Syrian state who must seek to consolidate all the heavily populated areas in western Syria.

Is Russia screwing the Syria government in their own interest? Yes.

Would I welcome a victory of US aligned forces at Raqqa? Certainly. I wish I were there. pl

08 March 2017

“The Syrian army’s Tiger Forces, backed by Russian warplanes, reached the Euphrates River in the province of Aleppo, liberating a large chunk of the area from ISIS. The town of Khafsah and the nearby Water Treatment Station were the most important gains. The liberation of the Khafsah Water Treatment Station will allow the Assad government to restore water supplies to the city of Aleppo which had been disrupted when ISIS terrorists damaged the station.

The ISIS-held Jihar Military Airbase will likely become the next target in the province. While the airbase has a strategic value itself, controlling this site government forces will de-facto encircle the ISIS stronghold of Deir Hafer. This will allow to successfully retake this town from the terrorist group soon.

Russian and US military servicemen closely cooperate in the outskirts of the city of Manbij controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Times reported. According to spokesman for the Pentagon, Jeff Davis, the both forces know about the location of each other in the area but have no desire to enter into a conflict with someone other than ISIS terrorists.

Syrian troops and some Russian military servicemen entered a number of villages west of Manbij, but the official list of these villages remains unclear. Photos show servicemen of the Russian Military Police near Manbij are also available online.” (South Front)

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Soon after South Front put out this report, they issued an update that the Tiger Forces extended their gains south along the shore of Lake Assad and outflanked Jihar Airbase. Those forces were reportedly storming the Airbase this morning.

In other news the 1/4 Marines are establishing a firebase to support the YPG/SDF assault on Raqqa with a battery of 155 howitzers. The Stryker IAVs rolling around Manbij flying American flags are elements of the 75th Ranger Regiment. That’s quite a collection of forces in a small area with the SAA, Russians, Special Forces, Rangers and Marines all in support of the YPG/SDF and MMC. I bet there’s some Brits (SAS?) and Frenchmen (2e REP?) in there , too. I’d give my left nut to be young again and be rubbing shoulders with the lot of them.

I used to think that I understood the rough outline of US law and capability with regard to the intercept and collection of signals intelligence. In light of all the media reporting and accusations flying around just now I see that I was mistaken in that belief. I am in the process of sorting out the details. I ask you to help me with this:

1. Both the FBI and DoJ can go to the FISA court to ask for a broad warrant to do surveillance of communications of Americans domestically or overseas on the basis of probable cause to think that these Americans are engaged in espionage against the US or terrorism directed at the US. Such warrants are usually applicable for all communications means oof the subject(s).

2. The FBI often does not go to the FISA courts because the information gathered in that channel is often contaminated under US rules of evidence and can not be used in a criminal proceeding. Instead, the FBI, often goes to an Article 3 federal court for a non-FISA warrant. It is reported that in this case the FBI did not approach the FISA court. The DoJ in a fit of desire to please the WH evidently did that on its own hook. If that is the case, Comey is correct in saying that the FBI did not do that.

3. After yesterday we suspect that CIA has the internal capability to intercept all the Trumpworld communications that it was pleased to do. Would that have required a FISA warrant for intercept of an American's communications or to surveille him? Would the CIA have accepted such a requirement?

4. NSA surveilles just about all US communications. Under rules adopted during the Bush '43 Administration such intercepts do not require FISA warrant because, well, the government says they do not. According to Judge Napolitano (the legal sage of Fox News) POTUS can legally order intercepts of the communications of Americans by simply certifying that to be necessary to national security.

5. Because of the close cooperation between the USIC and various foreign "players" most notably the UK's GCHQ, it is possible for the leaders of the USIC to informally ask such foreign players to collect SIGINT against US domestic targets because for the foreign player these targets are not domestic to them. This procedure obviates the need for a US FISA warrant and the US IC receives the fruits of such intercepts as traffic received in liaison. It is alleged in various media reports that this "path" was followed by Clapper and Brennan in this case and that the precipitous departure of the GCHQ boss was blow back from this when Teresa May was menaced over future BREXIT aftermath cooperation by person or persons unknown. This implies a leak from the USIC to Trumpworld.

07 March 2017

All, Whoa! I want to disable my auto and Smart TV functions. Thoughts. Wikileaks Unveils 'Vault 7': "The Largest Ever Publication Of Confidential CIA Documents"; Another Snowden Emerges Tyler Durden's picture by Tyler Durden Mar 7, 2017 7:56 AM WikiLeaks has published what it claims is the largest ever release of confidential documents on the CIA. It includes more than 8,000 documents as part of ‘Vault 7’, a series of leaks on the agency, which have allegedly emerged from the CIA's Center For Cyber Intelligence in Langley, and which can be seen on the org chart below, which Wikileaks also released: A total of 8,761 documents have been published as part of ‘Year Zero’, the first in a series of leaks the whistleblower organization has dubbed ‘Vault 7.’ WikiLeaks said that ‘Year Zero’ revealed details of the CIA’s “global covert hacking program,” including “weaponized exploits” used against company products including “Apple's iPhone, Google's Android and Microsoft's Windows and even Samsung TVs, which are turned into covert microphones.” WikiLeaks tweeted the leak, which it claims came from a network inside the CIA’s Center for Cyber Intelligence in Langley, Virginia. But perhaps what is most notable is the purported emergence of another Snowden-type whistleblower: the source of the information told WikiLeaks in a statement that they wish to initiate a public debate about the “security, creation, use, proliferation and democratic control of cyberweapons.” Policy questions that should be debated in public include “whether the CIA's hacking capabilities exceed its mandated powers and the problem of public oversight of the agency,” WikiLeaks claims the source said. The FAQ section of the release, shown below, provides further details on the extent of the leak, which was “obtained recently and covers through 2016”. The time period covered in the latest leak is between the years 2013 and 2016, according to the CIA timestamps on the documents themselves. Secondly, WikiLeaks has asserted that it has not mined the entire leak and has only verified it, asking that journalists and activists do the leg work. Among the various techniques profiled by WikiLeaks is “Weeping Angel”, developed by the CIA's Embedded Devices Branch (EDB), which infests smart TVs, transforming them into covert microphones. After infestation, Weeping Angel places the target TV in a 'Fake-Off' mode, so that the owner falsely believes the TV is off when it is on. In 'Fake-Off' mode the TV operates as a bug, recording conversations in the room and sending them over the Internet to a covert CIA server. As Kim Dotcom chimed in on Twitter, "CIA turns Smart TVs, iPhones, gaming consoles and many other consumer gadgets into open microphones" and added " CIA turned every Microsoft Windows PC in the world into spyware. Can activate backdoors on demand, including via Windows update" BREAKING: CIA turns Smart TVs, iPhones, gaming consoles and many other consumer gadgets into open microphones. #Vault7 — Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) March 7, 2017 Dotcom also added that "Obama accused Russia of cyberattacks while his CIA turned all internet enabled consumer electronics in Russia into listening devices. Wow!" Obama accused Russia of cyberattacks while his CIA turned all internet enabled consumer electronics in Russia into listening devices. Wow! — Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) March 7, 2017 Julian Assange, WikiLeaks editor stated that "There is an extreme proliferation risk in the development of cyber 'weapons'. Comparisons can be drawn between the uncontrolled proliferation of such 'weapons', which results from the inability to contain them combined with their high market value, and the global arms trade. But the significance of "Year Zero" goes well beyond the choice between cyberwar and cyberpeace. The disclosure is also exceptional from a political, legal and forensic perspective." Key Highlights from the Vault 7 release so far: "Year Zero" introduces the scope and direction of the CIA's global covert hacking program, its malware arsenal and dozens of "zero day" weaponized exploits against a wide range of U.S. and European company products, include Apple's iPhone, Google's Android and Microsoft's Windows and even Samsung TVs, which are turned into covert microphones. Wikileaks claims that the CIA lost control of the majority of its hacking arsenal including malware, viruses, trojans, weaponized "zero day" exploits, malware remote control systems and associated documentation. This extraordinary collection, which amounts to more than several hundred million lines of code, gives its possessor the entire hacking capacity of the CIA. The archive appears to have been circulated among former U.S. government hackers and contractors in an unauthorized manner, one of whom has provided WikiLeaks with portions of the archive. By the end of 2016, the CIA's hacking division, which formally falls under the agency's Center for Cyber Intelligence (CCI), had over 5000 registered users and had produced more than a thousand hacking systems, trojans, viruses, and other "weaponized" malware. Such is the scale of the CIA's undertaking that by 2016, its hackers had utilized more code than that used to run Facebook. The CIA had created, in effect, its "own NSA" with even less accountability and without publicly answering the question as to whether such a massive budgetary spend on duplicating the capacities of a rival agency could be justified. Once a single cyber 'weapon' is 'loose' it can spread around the world in seconds, to be used by rival states, cyber mafia and teenage hackers alike. Snowden 2.0? In a statement to WikiLeaks the source details policy questions that they say urgently need to be debated in public, including whether the CIA's hacking capabilities exceed its mandated powers and the problem of public oversight of the agency. The source wishes to initiate a public debate about the security, creation, use, proliferation and democratic control of cyberweapons. CIA targets iPhones, Androids, smart TVs: CIA malware and hacking tools are built by EDG (Engineering Development Group), a software development group within CCI (Center for Cyber Intelligence), a department belonging to the CIA's DDI (Directorate for Digital Innovation). The DDI is one of the five major directorates of the CIA (see this organizational chart of the CIA for more details). The increasing sophistication of surveillance techniques has drawn comparisons with George Orwell's 1984, but "Weeping Angel", developed by the CIA's Embedded Devices Branch (EDB), which infests smart TVs, transforming them into covert microphones, is surely its most emblematic realization. Also cars, suggesting that the CIA may have a role in the death of Michael Hastings: As of October 2014 the CIA was also looking at infecting the vehicle control systems used by modern cars and trucks. The purpose of such control is not specified, but it would permit the CIA to engage in nearly undetectable assassinations. And computers: The CIA also runs a very substantial effort to infect and control Microsoft Windows users with its malware. This includes multiple local and remote weaponized "zero days", air gap jumping viruses such as "Hammer Drill" which infects software distributed on CD/DVDs, infectors for removable media such as USBs, systems to hide data in images or in covert disk areas ( "Brutal Kangaroo") and to keep its malware infestations going. Hoarding of Zero Day exploits: In the wake of Edward Snowden's leaks about the NSA, the U.S. technology industry secured a commitment from the Obama administration that the executive would disclose on an ongoing basis — rather than hoard — serious vulnerabilities, exploits, bugs or "zero days" to Apple, Google, Microsoft, and other US-based manufacturers. Serious vulnerabilities not disclosed to the manufacturers places huge swathes of the population and critical infrastructure at risk to foreign intelligence or cyber criminals who independently discover or hear rumors of the vulnerability. If the CIA can discover such vulnerabilities so can others. Proliferation of leaked/hacked Cyberwar programs: While nuclear proliferation has been restrained by the enormous costs and visible infrastructure involved in assembling enough fissile material to produce a critical nuclear mass, cyber 'weapons', once developed, are very hard to retain. Cyber 'weapons' are in fact just computer programs which can be pirated like any other. Since they are entirely comprised of information they can be copied quickly with no marginal cost. Over the last three years the United States intelligence sector, which consists of government agencies such as the CIA and NSA and their contractors, such as Booze Allan Hamilton, has been subject to unprecedented series of data exfiltrations by its own workers. Once a single cyber 'weapon' is 'loose' it can spread around the world in seconds, to be used by peer states, cyber mafia and teenage hackers alike. The U.S. Consulate in Frankfurt is a covert CIA hacker base In addition to its operations in Langley, Virginia the CIA also uses the U.S. consulate in Frankfurt as a covert base for its hackers covering Europe, the Middle East and Africa. CIA hackers operating out of the Frankfurt consulate ( "Center for Cyber Intelligence Europe" or CCIE) are given diplomatic ("black") passports and State Department cover. The instructions for incoming CIA hackers make Germany's counter-intelligence efforts appear inconsequential: "Breeze through German Customs because you have your cover-for-action story down pat, and all they did was stamp your passport" Examples of CIA projects The CIA's Engineering Development Group (EDG) management system contains around 500 different projects (only some of which are documented by "Year Zero") each with their own sub-projects, malware and hacker tools. The majority of these projects relate to tools that are used for penetration, infestation ("implanting"), control, and exfiltration. Umbrage: The CIA's Remote Devices Branch's UMBRAGE group collects and maintains a substantial library of attack techniques 'stolen' from malware produced in other states including the Russian Federation. With UMBRAGE and related projects the CIA cannot only increase its total number of attack types but also misdirect attribution by leaving behind the "fingerprints" of the groups that the attack techniques were stolen from. Fine Dining: Fine Dining comes with a standardized questionnaire i.e menu that CIA case officers fill out. The questionnaire is used by the agency's OSB (Operational Support Branch) to transform the requests of case officers into technical requirements for hacking attacks (typically "exfiltrating" information from computer systems) for specific operations. Among the list of possible targets of the collection are 'Asset', 'Liason Asset', 'System Administrator', 'Foreign Information Operations', 'Foreign Intelligence Agencies' and 'Foreign Government Entities'. Notably absent is any reference to extremists or transnational criminals. 'Improvise'; a toolset for configuration, post-processing, payload setup and execution vector selection for survey/exfiltration tools supporting all major operating systems like Windows (Bartender), MacOS (JukeBox) and Linux (DanceFloor). HIVE: HIVE is a multi-platform CIA malware suite and its associated control software. The project provides customizable implants for Windows, Solaris, MikroTik (used in internet routers) and Linux platforms and a Listening Post (LP)/Command and Control (C2) infrastructure to communicate with these implants. The implants are configured to communicate via HTTPS with the webserver of a cover domain; each operation utilizing these implants has a separate cover domain and the infrastructure can handle any number of cover domains. And some key sections from the FAQ: What time period is covered? The years 2013 to 2016. The sort order of the pages within each level is determined by date (oldest first). WikiLeaks has obtained the CIA's creation/last modification date for each page but these do not yet appear for technical reasons. Usually the date can be discerned or approximated from the content and the page order. If it is critical to know the exact time/date contact WikiLeaks. What is "Vault 7" "Vault 7" is a substantial collection of material about CIA activities obtained by WikiLeaks. What is the total size of "Vault 7"? The series is the largest intelligence publication in history. When was each part of "Vault 7" obtained?: Part one was obtained recently and covers through 2016. Details on the other parts will be available at the time of publication. Is each part of "Vault 7" from a different source? Details on the other parts will be available at the time of publication. How did WikiLeaks obtain each part of "Vault 7"? Sources trust WikiLeaks to not reveal information that might help identify them. Isn't WikiLeaks worried that the CIA will act against its staff to stop the series? No. That would be certainly counter-productive. * * * PREVIOUSLY As a reminder, last night Wikileaks announced that it has released an encrypted torrent file which reportedly contains information on the mysterious "Vault 7", and which we now know is the biggest "collection of material about CIA activities obtained by WikiLeaks.publication in history." It can be downloaded now at the following URL, and accessed using the password

06 March 2017

"The Obama administration’s former Attorney General Loretta Lynch has made an impassioned video plea for more marching, blood and death on the streets – a video that was later posted on the Facebook page of Senate Democrats as “words of inspiration.”

The video is less than a minute long and begins by stating that people are experiencing “great fear and uncertainty,” with the unstated implication it is due to Donald Trump’s takeover of the White House.

" ... we are more than one month into the presidency ofTrump and as Tax Season nears, it seems the frenzy to get eyes on the Donald’s tax returns has once again reached a fever pitch. And sure enough, The New York Times in front and center again leading the charge, this time from top columnist Nicholas Kristof.

On Monday, Kristof arguably solicited a lowly IRS agent to commit a serious felony by leaking Trump’s tax returns to his newspaper, assuming, of course, his tweet was not merely in jest — though there seems to be little indication that Kristof was joking in the tweet.

“But if you’re in IRS and have a certain president’s tax return that you’d like to leak, my address is: NYT, 620 Eighth Ave, NY NY 10018,” Kristof wrote in a tweet." " Lawnewz

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So, the former chief law enforcement of the US is appealing to the mob and imported paid anarchists to commit violence in the US in pursuit of the overthrow of a president who was elected in the existing constitutional order. Holder would be proud of her. Like him she is lost in a fantasy in which the civil rights struggle of the '60s and '70s must continue to be fought at all costs. Is this appeal of hers not a criminal inducement to violence in light of the actions of creatures like the rioters at Berkeley yesterday?

And, there is the phenomenon of Kristof and his editor soliciting a felony on the part of a sworn employee of the US IRS. It was well established in the courts during the Obama hunt for leakers that journalists are immune from prosecution for publishing classified information, but are they also immune for soliciting a felony disclosure of tax returns? pl

"The Hannigan resignation is not occurring in a vacuum, and some in the large and highly networked retired intelligence community have come to believe that it is connected to the investigation and downfall of Trump’s first national-security advisor, Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn. Former federal prosecutor Andrew McCarthy has detailed exactly how the Flynn case does not appear to fit into any acceptable category that would have mandated an investigation and interrogation by the FBI. Surveillance of a Russian official would be authorized under FBI guidelines, but to extend that type of monitoring or investigation to a U.S. citizen would require specific authority from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court to issue a warrant based on probable cause.

There is no evidence that that was ever done. Flynn was not an actual or suspected foreign intelligence agent, and it would be ridiculous to suggest that he might be so inclined. Nor was he engaged in any criminal activity or unwittingly connected to an ongoing investigation. Indeed, apart from possibly dissimulating over what he said, he basically did nothing wrong. There were no grounds for him to be questioned (“grilled” according to the New York Times) by the FBI, and whether or not he misled Vice President Pence over the content of his December phone calls with Russian Ambassador Sergei Kislyak is a matter for the president and his advisers to sort out from a political perspective, which is indeed what eventually took place.

Regarding the actual development of the investigation of Flynn, recall for a moment that we are dealing with at least some individuals at the top levels of national-security organizations who did not hesitate to break the law, leaking information to the media on the highly classified telephone intercepts. " Giraldi

Well, that's an important revelation at this point. Let me ask you this. Does intelligence exist that can definitively answer the following question, whether there were improper contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian officials?

JAMES CLAPPER:

We did not include any evidence in our report, and I say, "our," that's N.S.A., F.B.I. and C.I.A., with my office, the Director of National Intelligence, that had anything, that had any reflection of collusion between members of the Trump campaign and the Russians. There was no evidence of that included in our report.

CHUCK TODD:

I understand that. But does it exist?

JAMES CLAPPER:

Not to my knowledge.

CHUCK TODD:

If it existed, it would have been in this report?

JAMES CLAPPER:

This could have unfolded or become available in the time since I left the government." Meet the Press 5 March 2017

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You all probably know that I am not a big fan of the perjured former Director of National Intelligence, but this is interesting. Earlier in this interview Clapper says that there was no FISA court approval of a warrant to intercept Trump campaign communications. This contradicts other rumor/reporting that there were two attempts last year to obtain such a warrant. The first of these failed and the second was supposedly approved. Remember! A FISA court warrant IS NOT a warrant in a criminal investigation. A FISA court warrant is a permission to intercept communications in a suspected espionage or terrorism case. It is a vacuum cleaner that seeks information useful to intelligence analysis without regard to the admissibility of such information in a federal court.

In this quoted section of the MTP interview Clapper, who always seeks to cover his hindquarters, throws the Left's case for Russian/Trumpian collusion in the election "under the bus." pl

04 March 2017

Having lured America into two foolish wars filled with national pride and hubris, the neocons, to include their later converts like: McCain, the old lady from South Carolina, Hillary, their media servants et al are now faced with the obvious truth that their beliefs in the malleability of human cultures and the inevitability of "progress" toward one world culture are just horseshit. The neocons inspired and at times controlled the US policy that summoned the Shia sectarian fanatic Maliki from the vasty deep. His Shia oriented tyranny is collapsing more or less of its own weight, and in the process abandoning a fortune in US supplied military equipment. Maliki is finished and no amount of whimpering about the desirability of "reconciliation" will change that. The rebel coalition is going to drive Maliki from power and will probably occupy the remaining Sunni parts of Baghdad in the process. Afghanistan appears likely to follow (in a few years) much the same trajectory toward an oriental despotism that is hard for us to understand.

In spite of this present failure and the likely future failure in Afghanistan, the jacobin neocons continue to snarl their defiance at reality. McCain and the other lunatics insist that all was well in Iraq after the "surge" under the benign genius of the Great Captain David Petreus (he who could not keep his pants zipped up). The obvious reality of the success of the defection of the Sons of Iraq from support of people like ISIS is dismissed by one dimensional thinkers like that other military genius, Jack Keane. With the help of all the "yes men" at State, in DoD and the WH the "advanced thinkers" among the IR poisoned political appointees, the US Government walked away from the Sons of Iraq and worshipped at the feet of the Shia tyrant Maliki because - wait for it! He had won an election.

The core truth of what has happened in Iraq is the grotesque stupidity of the original decision to invade Iraq, occupy it and seek to transform it into a country acceptable to the neocons.

The hunt for those who "lost Iraq," is just beginning. It will intensify and become the equivalent of the harrying of the "China Hands" after the Nationalist Chinese regime fell to the communists.

One of the saddest thing about this is the continuing ignorance of the American people of any of the reality of this situation. The images that people have of Iraq, Iran and all the rest are simply projections of media propaganda reflecting the agenda of the neocons and their international "friends."

One can only expect that even as they wriggle on the hook of their failure the neocons will continue to lie and attempt to cripple their opponents

Nicholas Burns said on one of the seditious MSM chatter shows today that Russia is not attacking IS in Syria. This is utterly untrue and a standard propaganda meme of the neocons, of which he is obviously one. Russian aircraft have been deeply involved in all SAA operations aimed to re-take Palmyra. Russian aircraft have been deeply involved in the defense of the Deir al-Zor pocket 200 kilometers east of Palmyra. Who does Burns think that the Russians are fighting out there in the east? Is it the FSA unicorns of fabled semi-existence that Burns thinks are besieging Deir al-Zor or who captured Palmyra a month or so back.

My sources inform me that US/Russia tactical coordination in Syria is now well advanced and effective.

I doubt that Burns is that ignorant. IMO he is merely an opportunist who hopes for a neocon restoration in US foreign policy. pl

03 March 2017

"Sergey I. Kislyak, the longtime Russian ambassador to the United States, hosted a dazzling dinner in his three-story, Beaux-Arts mansion four blocks north of the White House to toast Michael A. McFaul just weeks before he took up his post as the American envoy to Russia.

It was, Mr. McFaul recalled, an “over-the-top, extraordinary dinner,” including five courses of Russian fusion cuisine for 50 seated guests who shared one main characteristic: They were government officials intimately involved in formulating Russia policy for the Obama administration, including senior figures from the Defense and State Departments.

“I admired the fact that he was trying to reach deep into our government to cultivate relations with all kinds of people,” Mr. McFaul said of the dinner in late 2011. “I was impressed by the way he went about that kind of socializing, the way he went about entertaining, but always with a political objective.”

Mr. Kislyak’s networking success has landed him at the center of a sprawling controversy and made him the most prominent, if politically radioactive, ambassador in Washington. Two advisers to President Trump have run into trouble for not being more candid about contacts with Mr. Kislyak: Michael T. Flynn, who was forced to resign as national security adviser, and now Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who admitted two previously undisclosed conversations. Mr. Kislyak also met during the transition with Mr. Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner." NY Times

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For those of you who do not have a lot of knowledge of what ambassadors do for a living:

1. They have primary responsibility to serve as a main channel of communication to the government of the country or countries to which they are accredited. Some ambassadors are accredited to more countries than the one they reside in. i.e., The Israeli ambassador to the US is usually also accredited to Canada.

2. They have a responsibility to network widely and effectively in the country of their accreditation. They seek to form relationships of cordial communication with government, media, academic, etc. people in their country of accreditation. Some are better at this than others. Kislyak is reputed to be quite good at this task.

3. Based on networking, official visits and on the ground conversations ambassadors (and their staffs) report by cable, internet or whatever the results of their conversations and observations. This is a normal function of an embassy, including all US embassies.

02 March 2017

Ratty is definitely on to something. To be on the water in any kind of craft can be therapeutic. IMHO the sound of the surf can only be equalled by the sound of the wind in the pines. Both together… heaven. You can’t buy that kind of therapy with a million dollars. One of the saddest things I often saw on the streets of D.C. was the herds of young, ambitious suits with ear buds in their ears, eyes and thumbs glued to their smartphones, totally oblivious to their surroundings. Borg aspirants, no? It is no wonder so much self serving and destructive idiocy is produced in Washington. As I have said for the last five years, I think we deserve a break... or at least a little vicarious diversion from the madness that surrounds us.

Funny how this rings true year after year, no matter what changes occur in Washington. Once again, I invite the SST Committee of Correspondence to follow the running of the Everglades Challenge which begins this Saturday morning. The event is organized by a colorful group of adventurers who call themselves the Water Tribe. The Everglades Challenge is an unsupported, expedition style adventure race for kayaks, canoes, and small sailboats. It starts at Fort DeSoto in Saint Petersburg, Florida and ends at Key Largo. The distance is roughly 300 nautical miles depending on one's course selection. Updates on the progress and tribulations of the participants will be posted on the Water Tribe forums. The boats are tracked by SPOT satellite. Their progress can be seen on this tracking map. There is also a new tracking map provided through Race Owl. Between the two, the event should be well covered.

To truly get a feel for this event, I recommend you set aside an hour and a half to view this videoabout the 2013 running of the Everglades Challenge. There’s some excellent banjo and fiddle work as well.

This year close to a hundred boats will be taking up the challenge. Some will not make it to Key Largo. Some may not even make it to Fort DeSoto. It’s been said that half the challenge is getting to the start. I believe it. The winners usually make the voyage in two days or so. The allowed time limit for successfully finishing the race is eight days. I would take the full eight days. Why rush to shorten such a grand experience?

In line with this more leisurely approach, I see a stalwart pair going by the names of Foghorn and Plumbcrazy are sailing a lug rigged Jim Michalak IMB sail beachboat. This design does not look like it belongs in a long distance expedition style competition. It has an eight foot cabin sitting on a thirteen and a half foot multi-chined pram hull with a leeboard. I have no idea how she is rowed or sculled when inevitably faced with unfavorable winds. There’s no other way to put it. She’s ugly, but she got spunk. I wish her well.

There is another Michalak design in the fray. She is the veteran Oaracle, a twenty foot multi-chined, lug rigged yawl with a six foot cabin made to handle rough water. Although not a classic nautical beauty, she does have a certain Michalak charm. The design itself is called the Frolic2. This particular boat and skipper, Lugnut, has completed several Everglades Challenges and won the class 4 race back in 2012. Both Lugnut and Oaracle are not practitioners of the leisurely approach.

Yes, I still plan on doing this some day. Until the day I push off the Fort DeSoto beach, I content myself with some local paddling and sailing in my Pungo 120 kayak. We have some wonderful venues in Stafford, Virginia. Lake Mooneyis our new 500 acre reservoir that does not allow the use of gas engines. You see only kayaks and canoes now. On a rare windy day, my homemade sail rig moves my Pungo along quite nicely. We also have the Crow’s Nest Natural Area Preserve on the Potomac River. This area has been left pristine since the Civil War. The wildlife viewable here is magnificent. And the canoe/kayak launch ramp to the Crow’s Nest Water Trail is just flat cool. We also have Abel Reservoir for a short afternoon paddle and commune with nature and the Mallows Bay area just a brisk two and a half mile paddle across the Potomac on the flood tide.

I must admit I am quite fickle in my love for boat designs. I have flirted with John Welsford’s Walkabout and Iain Oughtred’s MacGregor canoe. I now have a crush on the new Waterlust Sailing Canoe designed by Chesapeake Light Craft. This is a 17 foot yawl rig canoe with significantly more volume than the MacGregor. The rig is my beloved balanced lug. There is room to sleep within the hull. Secondary propulsion is the Hobie Mirage Drive. The prospect of using my aging, but still capable, leg muscles rather than my aging arm and shoulder muscles is enticing. I can still carry a Greenland paddle for the time when that new-fangled contraption inevitably gives out. A sailing canoe does not need a trailer and will take little space in my garage. Construction with the CLC kit will be a much simpler challenge. Those are significant selling points.

I’ll end this the same way I ended it last year. Some things will not change. In addition to building the boat and getting to Fort DeSoto, I have to obtain a release from SWMBO to undertake such a crazy-assed and dangerous adventure. She has stood by me through thick and thin and, quite frankly, has had her fill of my risking life and limb. She would be happy to have us live out the remainder of our lives quietly, happily and contentedly as hobbits in the shire. This sounds wonderful… but the ring still calls out for me.

TTG

UPDATE:

Plumbcrazy and Foghorn dropped out of the race this morning. I'm still surprised they came this far without demasting, capsizing or just flat being being swallowed by dragons out there. Here's a couple of photos showing their boat. I see ports in the hull that would serve as oar holes when opened. I salute those magnificent bastards for getting this far and for even attempting the race in that thing.

This woman is a former sub-cabinet political appointee in the Obama Administration's DoD where she dealt with Russian policy matters. At some point in the recent past she was de-briefed (cut off) from access to the various kinds of compartmented information she had been given as a requirement of her job. When that occurred she signed some papers in which she accepted the responsibility to protect the secrecy of that information.

She has recently been on a number of MSNBC shows freely telling people of the extent and success of present and ongoing US SIGINT (COMINT) operations against Russia. She stated on global TV last night and this morning that the US has "very good intelligence on Russia," and that the US successfully intercepts Russian diplomatic communications to include the encrypted telephone communications of Russian diplomats to include the ambassador to the US.

She has stated freely on TV that she and a group of associates from the Obama Administration went to congressional staffers who did not have access to these COMINT products and urged them to seek to gain access to them. This is in basic contradiction to the elementary principle in government security that access to particular products should be dictated from above based on necessity rather than sought from below. In fact an expressed desire to gain greater access is usually something that arouses suspicion about an individual.

It is likely that her disclosure has damaged NSA and FBI success in the COMINT operations that she has compromised to the Russians. pl

01 March 2017

"Turkey-backed forces will move toward the northern Syrian town of Manbij after completing their operation in al-Bab as originally planned, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday.

In a news conference in Ankara before embarking on an official visit to Pakistan, Erdogan also said the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia - which Turkey regards as a terrorist organization - should be moved out to the east of the Euphrates river.

Erdogan also ruled out any chance of cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which includes the Syrian Kurdish militia." Reuters

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Turkish Air Force aircraft are now supposedly bombing SDF irregulars (including the YPG Kurds). These forces are closely advised and accompanied by USSF (Green Berets). These Turkish Air Force bombs and rockets are probably provided by the United States since Turkey is still a member state of NATO. Where else would they get aerial ordnance? Is there a 500 lb. bomb factory somewhere in Turkey? Trump went to JB Andrews to receive the dead body of the SEAL who died in Yemen. This experience of the result of actual war seems to have affected the CinC. If the Turks keep bombing the SDF and seriously attempt to move their Syrian proxies toward Manbij there are likely to be quite a few more American bodies for him and Ivanka to meet at Andrews. I think TTG will agree with me that our GB brothers are likely to die at the sides of those they now see as comrades.

What would be the result of a Turkish/US proxy war in NE Syria? IMO such a war would lead to the exit of Turkey from NATO, a cessation of Turkish inclusion in NATO contingency plans and a departure of the US and its nuclear weapons from Incirlik AFB at Adana in Turkey.

Does Erdogan really want that? Perhaps he does. He has shown every symptom of neo-Ottoman and Islamist thinking until now. Why not this? A crucial moment in the history of US-Turkish relations has arrived.

BTW, with regard to the reconnaissance operation in Yemen in which SCPO Owens died; a reconnaissance in which you lose men is NOT a failure unless the reconnaissance mission is not accomplished. pl