Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

WOULD SOME ONE PLEASE TWEET THIS TO abbott, ) L % (+5%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 23% (+1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 14% (-‐3%) Joe Hockey. Among Liberal/Nationalvoters, 39%(and this

Ess, doesnt get our there a lot but this good to let liberals know about their boy

The Slipper affair tarnishes the two major parties and reinforces the perception for many that both parties lack integrity.

The Slipper affair does not reflect on the Greens Party parliamentarians at all.

The above is a quote from Pegasus @3287 in the previous thread.

Further back in that thread, Pegasus claimed the Prime Minister was dog-whistling to blue collar voters who had left Labor for the Coalition. The general theme, as always with the Greens, is one of elevated morality.

There is, however, a major flaw in these arguments.

Regardless of their assertions, the fact remains that the Greens continue to give support to this minority government. They could, at any time, withdraw it. So, when the Greens try to land the blame for Slipper squarely at the feet of the major parties, they conveniently avoid telling us that they had every chance to question his integrity and to oppose his appointment – but they didn’t. They didn’t, because it suited their political objective as a minority government partner that desperately needed the buffer of another vote. Likewise, the Greens continue to support a minority government that Pegasus accuses of dog-whistling. Why? Because it suits their political objectives.

Over the course of this parliament, the Greens have shown that they will abandon principle and horse-trade with the best of them to get what they want.

Greiner was very good (and I was working for him) but JG’s achievements are bigger and much more difficult to achieve.

SK – I’d have to agree with that. Greiner was pulled down by some colleagues and some of the decisions (Pt Macq Hospital), Sydney Tunnel cost the State a lot of money .. make that are still costing the State a lot of money. Overall tho he did know what he wanted to do. Metherell gave him a bad look as did a couple of others.

bluegreen – Bob Brown “is” the Greens. If you support them, or if you are happy they support the current ALP government and see them benignly, I would expect to you to say Bob’s OK. There are (or were) no real leadership rivals for him in the public eye, so the vote is not split.

Over the course of this parliament, the Greens have shown that they will abandon principle and horse-trade with the best of them to get what they want.

They really are just another political party.

Of course they are – as a Labor member I can’t forget seeing the Green senators sitting with the Coalition to defeat the ETS in 2009; but for that we would now be 2 years into anti carbon action and also before the deniers had time to regroup as they have done successfully so far.

However I can’t deny their right to put their point of view, and I am a believer in constructively working with the Greens where possible.

Slipper was nominated unopposed and installed as Speaker on 24 November 2011.

Peg – you funny sausage – the Greens could have opposed it. It was spoken of for a day or so before he was appointed. Plenty of time for Bob to have a word in Julia’s shellpink ear and say ‘no, we won’t agree’.

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.