My AP top-25 preseason ballot: Alabama is No. 1

Submitted my ballot to the AP office earlier today, and it’s posted below with comments on each team. I’ll update with AP rankings (for comparative purposes) when the preseason poll is published Aug. 17.

During the season, I’ll follow the same approach as in the past: My ballot will be posted on the Hotline late Saturday night or early Sunday morning with an explanation of the placement of various teams.

In an attempt to limit the inevitable confusion (outrage?) about what you’ll read below — and what you’ll read through the course of the season — here’s an overview of my voting philosophy:

My preseason poll is a projection of how I think the teams will finish in January. If the preseason No. 1 is your best team – your pick to win the national championship — then it seems to follow that all the teams should be slotted according to projected finish.

(Note: The AP purposefully provides no framework for the preseason poll; everyone has his/her own system.)

Once the season starts, I’ll begin revising the ballot based on results. It takes four or five weeks for enough teams to play enough meaningful games to compile a fully results-oriented ballot.

Until then, there’s an element of common sense involved (my version of common sense, anyhow). For instance …

*** What you’ll see below is an updated version — similar but not identical — of my January projections, which can be found here.

1. Alabama: Best coach in the land + superb QB (senior AJ McCarron) + NFL talent up and down the roster + favorable schedule (LSU at home, no Georgia or Florida) = Team To Beat.

2. Ohio State: Not sure I’d like the Buckeyes to reach the finals in a four/eight-team playoff, but a soft non-conference schedule and the mediocre Big Ten means they could run the table … until they get run off the field in the NCG.

3. Stanford: With a rugged defense, dominant offensive line and savvy quarterback, the Cardinal looks like a powerhouse SEC team … and powerhouse SEC teams are title contenders.

4. Louisville: To name just one potential controversy in the final year of the BCS: If the Cardinals blast through the weak American Athletic (ex-Big East) and finish the regular-season undefeated, would they nudge a 1-loss SEC/B12/B1G/P12 team out of the title game?

5. Oregon: Dropped the Ducks three spots from their January placement, largely due to the departure of Chip Kelly. Then again, Oregon misses USC and Arizona State and gets UCLA at home.

6. Georgia: If the Dawgs survive a brutal opening month (Clemson, South Carolina and LSU), then the regular season comes down to one game: Florida.

7. Clemson: Tajh Boyd and the Tigers are the team to beat in the ACC, but bookenders vs. Georgia and South Carolina could put the BCS title game out of reach.

8. South Carolina: With Jadeveon Clowney and Co. obliterating opponents, the Gamecocks will have plenty of margin for error on the other side of the ball.

9. Nebraska: The Huskers don’t leave home until mid-October and play just four road games. Two of them are Purdue and Minnesota.

10. LSU: From the can’t-get-any-worse department: Tigers’ ranking based on presumption that offense will improve under senior QB Zach Mettenberger and new playcaller Cam Cameron.

11. Oklahoma State: Best in the Big 12 might not mean as much this season. The league will be, at best, No. 3 in the conference pecking order (behind SEC and Pac-12).

12. Texas A&M: Difficult team to place because of potential suspension for Johnny Autograph. At this point, assumption is that he’ll play. If that changes, so will the ranking. (And yes, there is precedent for the AP allowing voters to change preseason ballots: Honey Badger.)

13. UCLA: Moved the Bruins up five spots from January position. Brett Hundley, Brett Hundley, Brett Hundley … and a little Anthony Barr.

14. Florida: Defensive-minded Gators will be more than capable of winning games 17-10 … and they’ll probably have to.

15. Northwestern: More than capable of winning games 45-40 … and will probably have to.

16. Texas: Tough to make the case for Longhorns as a preseason top-10 team. But as a BCS darkhorse, they’re intriguing.

17. Fresno State: Difference between FSU and Boise State: The schedule. Boise State has Washington, Fresno, Utah State and BYU on the road.

18. Texas Christian: Casey Pachall is back from suspension, which means the Frogs have the potential to challenge for the Big 12 title.

20. Michigan: Impressed by what I saw of QB Devin Gardner last season. His style suits the strengths of playcaller Al Borges far better than Denard Robinson’s ever did.

21. Notre Dame: The Irish would have been several spots higher with Everett Golson in uniform, but I expect Tommy Rees to be more than satisfactory due the the confidence that comes from knowing the job is his.

22. USC: If the QB situation gets settled in training camp and remains settled, the Trojans could win eight or nine games — they’re plenty talented at the other 21 positions.

23. Oklahoma: Combination of new quarterback and difficult schedule — it includes a trip to South Bend — will make this a challenging season in Norman.

24. Georgia Tech: Paul (Triple Option) Johnson has won at least seven games in nine of the past 10 seasons. Look for the Jackets to make it 10 out of 11 for their under-appreciated coach.

Jon Wilner

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Oregon below Ohio State (so so team in a weak conference) and Louisville!!!! If neither has a tough schedule they should not be considered -Bama an exception as they will blow all comers out of the water.

Jeff

I’m a UCLA fan but they are ranked too high considering they have a brand new secondary. Their O-line is improved but was still porous last year. They lost the Mayor… Oh yeah, they also play 5 of your top 25 teams and 4 of them are on the road including 3 of the top 10 teams. I don’t see them finishing the year in the top 15.

So if Northwestern played Texas on a neutral field, you’d pick NW? I’d pick Texas by 21…

MostWanted

The beauty pageant begins and more importantly ENDS this year. And rightly so. tsk tsk

NorCal Tree

Wow! Five Pac12 teams in the top 25. Polls this early have little meaning, but is Wilner finally coming over from the dark side?! I like it, although I had hoped the Spartans would crack the top 25 after they had their best season ever. As for Stanford, I love to see us in the top 5 and getting the respect we have earned. The Oregon game is the marquis game for the Pac…again! Retiring of Elway’s number that night is just the icing on the cake! Can’t wait for the season to start. How are those PSL sales going in Strawbeary Canyon, Milo?

Trees Forever

Come on Wilner, neither tOSU nor Louisville deserves a top 5 ranking. Neither will be tested the way the other three will (along with the others in your Top 10 from the SEC & P12).

My only hope is that the BCS computers will override morons like you and pick a 12-1 Stanford, Oregon, Alabama, or Georgia over a 13-0 tOSU or Louisville. SOS matters – a LOT.

The Fake Milo

Great news everyone!!
The box office says it sold a football season ticket yesterday. The person gave her name as a “Mrs. Dykes.”

We are ROLLIN’!!

The fake Jon Wilner

The concept of reverting toward the mean suggests that Stanford may lose some of those close games they won last year. Having said that, the SJS game won’t be one of those.

John

SOS is overrated. Louisville’s SOS was average last year and Florida’s was #4 in the nation. Everyone saw how badly Louisville took apart the Gators in the Sugar Bowl. The score did not reflect the level of domination. Clemson had a weaker SOS than LSU last year and still beat them in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl.

mk92

Take nothing away from the great year SJSU had last year or David Fales, but SJSU lost a lot from last year’s team

steve

Louisville can not force teams to schedule them. They tried to get Texas a m
and Michigan. Guess if you were not good fifty years ago you don’t count.

MostWanted

Last time I checked every program in college football loses players. New players emerge. It`s a major reason why I prefer CFB to the pros. Of course I like the pros too.

Go Spartans!
Go Niners!
Keep the faith!

Flapsdawg

25. Washinton

First, Albert Einstein, then Robert Oppenheimer, and now – Jon Wilner.

Good call.

Spartan Pubber

Jon,

I knew not to expect the Spartans on any of your early season ballots; but Fresno State at #17? Apparently you’ve bought into all that unwarranted hype over Derek Carr. Even with a cream puff OOC schedule, look for the doggies to be out of the MWC race by the beginning of November. Remember, any Fresno dream of winning the West Division must go through Spartan Stadium. As for the Spartans, I’ll start checking your ballot about the second week of November. That’s when I predict you will start becoming a believer that San Jose State is for real.

Cardinal Rule

There’s no way Ohio State is the number 2 team at the end of the year. They have to travel to Northwestern and Michigan. They will lose both.

Of course I think this is Stanford’s year. Get used to another year of close games.

maddogsfavsnpiks

i appreciate JW’s ranking of the Cards at 3rd this year, even if he is a tad late to the party.
What would give the Tree an edge, and a #1 ranking, if all of the top 3 finish their reg ssn and conference scheds undefeated, is Stanford’s far, far greater degree of difficulty in their schedule, ie, SoS (Strength of Schedule).. which is a significant factor in the final BCS computer rankings.

Last ssn Stanford won all but one (vs ND on a questionable call) of the 7 games they played against ranked opponents (including Wisconson who was ranked by the Coach’s and Harris poll, but unranked by the AP, before the Rose Bowl daddy).

And it doesn’t get easier this year – in fact, it gets exponentially and insanely more difficult.

This season will potentially feature *9 ranked teams* !… most of whom could be undefeated when they face Stanford: ASU (2-0), Washington (4-0), UCLA (5-0), Oregon St (7-0), Oregon (8-0), USC (10-0, altho doubtful), and if in the unlikely event Notre Dame is able to run an
early-ssn gauntlet that includes games : @Michigan, (hm)Michigan St, (hm)Oklahoma, (N)vs ASU, (hm)USC, then they could be 11-0 when the teams meet 11/30; and finally, a 13-0 ‘bama, or Buckeye squad at the NCG in January !

An undefeated season against such a grueling, grinding, week after week match-up of top-notch teams would be UNPRECEDENTED !!

Phil Steele ranks the regular ssn Tree line-up as 8th most difficult (out of 126) in the country, which i think is way, way too low…

i think there will be times the O will struggle. Don’t get me wrong, the ship is NOT floundering, but the Stanford O will face some exceptional athletes, such as Will “Wrecking Ball” Sutton, Anthony “Barkley’s Bane” Barr, Scott Crichton, Ekpre-Olomu, Morgan Breslin, and an overall improved defense from Washington… so the Tree D, must not let up, must be ready…

On offense, there are question marks at Center, WR, TE and RB.. but i think “Hog Heaven” Hogan, the extraordinary OL, Ty “Money” and new look speed n hands wideouts, plus some extraordinary incoming talent at TE + “Cool Hands” Luke Kaumatule, can give the Defense the breathing room it needs, to go all the way…

…i mean, this the most talent and depth i’ve seen on D at the farm… the most i’ve EVER seen in 60 years. EVER !
…it’s exciting, but the Cardinal must bring it, EVERY week, no breathers, even against teams they’re s’posed to thrash; like SJS, Army, Washington St, Utah, and including, hahaha… the pooh bears from berkeley..

No let downs guys. No time off, no plays off, no breaks… which won’t be easy, juggling class work and schedules… it won’t be easy, not by a long shot… but in the end the rewards will be obvious, thrilling, and oh so worth it…

i know i’ll be rootin’ for ya all the way…

CardFan65

I like seeing my Card at #3, but I gotta admit that all of the pre-season hype is making me very nervous. I know the D will be great, the O-line stout and Hogan more in command of the offense, but… Perhaps I’m just used to us being under-appreciated before the season starts, or maybe it’s front-runner’s apprehension, but I’m nervous. I do expect us to be very good in the first half of the season, but that stretch after the 7th game is brutal. Can’t wait to see how the season unfolds, though. Let’s get this thing started already.

Trees Forever

Have faith CF65 – this is a different era. The schedule is VERY favorable despite the gauntlet in the second half (UCLA, OU, UW, ND all at home).

I expect a number of close games, but the maturity of this team and the fact that they’ve been there done that a lot of times already gives me great confidence. The D will be even better than last year and the OL is going to pound opposing defenses into the ground. Once again, if you want to have a chance to win you had better have the lead going into the 4th quarter – or in the case of ND, have the refs wearing leprechaun hats.

See you in Pasadena on Jan 6!

notsewshur

round up the usual suspects.

move along, nothing to see here.

indepth analysis of the Oregon spring game sez you get what you pay for and their will be more passing.

notsewshur

Oregon State is a better team that Kiffies’ Kowgirls.

rotfogel

Good effort by Jon. Alabama deserves to be the top spot, sure. I suppose Ohio St should be up there too but I’d be shocked if they end up in the top 10. I’d have put Stanford at #2. Barry Sanders is going to run wild, anyone with half a sense of scouting can easily see that.

Louisville is Boise St. of years past but not anywhere close to as good. Bridgewater is a good QB but his hype is not totally deserved. I’ve seen him a few times, pretty good QB, but not great.

Really interested to see what Cal’s new coach can do. There’s more NFL talent on the Bears than every team in the Pac 12 except Stanford. I’d say talent wise they’ve got as much if not more than USC does.

There are a few first round picks in the future years on the Cal team. Two for sure: Freddie Tagoloa and Brennan Scarlett. Then there are several mid round picks littering the squad: Chris Harper, Richard Rogers, Kenny Lawler, Nick Forbes, Stephan McClure and Avery Sebastian to name a few.

Pluto99

If I had to handicap it, I would guess that Barry Sanders is only going to get a handful of snaps per game. I’ve seen nothing that would lead me to believe he’s going to jump ahead of Gaffney, Wilkerson and Young. To the contrary, reading between the lines, it sounds like Shaw is less than thrilled by his pass blocking, so that may be holding him back from getting more snaps at this point.

It would be nice to have one guy step up to become the work horse. We haven’t had a rotation in the backfield for several years and I don’t know if our temp and style supports that approach to the RB position.

Trees Forever

Young was playing more WR than RB om spring practice, and Shaw’s most recent comments about him are about him primarily at WR. Sanders will get probably 5-10 carries a game at the start of the season, but by the end i expect it will be Gaffney and Sanders getting the majority of the carries (thunder & lightning). Wilkerson has never impressed me as a starting RB. Next year Sanders should be the featured back.

I’m so ready for Sept 7 already…

CardFan65

@Trees Forever: I’m going to grasp your optimism and claim it as my own. To be clear, I like us as the favorite in every game on our schedule. I just couldn’t help expressing my nervousness here, amongst friends. I’m with you on your last point, though. I cannot wait for Sept 7, and for the dozen Saturdays that will follow it.

Oh, and yes, I’ll see you in ‘Dena on January 6th. Let’s get this party (in the backfield) started.

The Fake Milo

Agree that Wilkerson has never shown much. He is two steps down from Taylor, while Gaffney is only one step down. I’d like to see Gaffney pass out of the wildcat. Wright and Seale should fight it out for the number two spot, and either could pass Gaffney. Both are much tougher than Wilkerson. Maybe Sanders can become an ace returner. That would be very valuable.

NorCal Tree

CardFan65,
Color me the optimist, but this is a tough schedule…and I wouldn’t have it any other way. Defense wins championships and this will be the most talented defensive team to wear Cardinal and White in the modern era. We have talent, depth and speed, and that’s something we have been unable to state before. I’m thrilled for this team and for this season! That being said, I don’t like the first week bye. SJS is a trap game and they always give us their best. Let the fun begin. Oh, and by the way…season tickets are sold out!

Trees Forever

It’s a tough schedule yes, but most of the toughest games are at home. OSU is the only road game that worries me. And the stadium will be jam-packed and rocking for every game – except SJSU where it won’t matter. They are down from last year and we are up.

awaiting moderashun

gettin durn tire – d of all the fakers getting thru an my moderate support of both Oregon teams chances being shelved. I bring a big heart to the debate, but this defense wins champeenships is crazy. Teams win champeenships, and our victories in SoCal this year show that. I agree; Ohio State is in a weak conf. and Stanford beat a team that did not belong in a major bowl. Several teams from back east may yet rise; The college of ill repute in LA-LA land shall not be in the top 30 by the end of the year.

Broncoboss

No Boise State in the top 25? That destroys any credibility of Wilner’s pre-season top 25 prediction! Maybe when Boise beats Washington Wilner will slip them into the 25th spot? Fresno State 17th and no BSU makes no sense…Even though Boise has a tougher schedule they will take the bulldogs of Freson apart when they meet on the field. Then it will be tough even for Wilner to rank them ahead of Boise State…The Fresno BS hype must have gotten to Wilner..I have beachfront Condo in Wyoming that Wilner might like to buy…

COUSIN MAYNARD

LMAO @ a BSu crying about other teams being overhyped. the phrase “dillinger calling jessie james a crook” comes to mind.

for me the end of the bcs era is both a very sad and very bad thing.not that i defend the bcs as perfect, i’d rather have the old old days, but the idea that playoff is a good thing is based on the false premise NFL/CBB fans does it the right way. both leagues SUCK, and saying their reg seasons are meaningless is being overly kind.

go spartans
eff the noners
eff the raiders

MostWanted

Coach Caragher should put this up on the locker room wall to show the players. See it’s never enough. Don’t get complacent. Last years 11 win Military Championship was last year. Lets go out and do better than last year. Lets start stacking wins.

Let’s put up 60 on Sac St. and then 50+ on Stanford. Let’s crush Fresno, San Diego, Utah State, Minnesota, UNLV, Nevada and wyoming. Kill em all and let God sort them out.

The Fake Bernard Muir

The only “50” that SJS will put up against Stanford will be “yards total offense.”

g. spartan

A lot of talk and not enough action. Can’t wait for the season to begin! Go Spartans! We are moving in the right direction and great things happen when all is good.

kingsfan

@broncoboss – BSU plays Washington, who was 7-6 last year, and a bunch of mid-majors. If you seriously think Boise St should even sniff the top 25 this year, I believe you bought that “beachfront condo” you are trying to sell Wilner.

Broncoboss

Kingsf,
No Boise State, and Fresno State at 17 makes no sense to me..If it’s because FSU has an easy schedule then ranking them high makes no sense…I guess Wilner needs to come up with an “Easy Schedule” pre-season top 25? By the way the beaches are beautiful and the waves are breath-taking here in Cody, Wyoming..The condo next door is for sale-maybe you, or Wilner would be interested in buying it. It’s surrounded by a sandy beach..

Darius

I think this is the best pre-season rankings I’ve ever seen Wilner put together. And I’ve seen nearly 8 years of these. Agree with others above that tOSU might be slightly too high, but I think their performance last season definitely puts them in top 10. I didn’t see much of L’ville, but the hype surrounding them probably justifies a top 10. UO is a puzzle. A new coach is just too unpredictable for a top 2 rankings, but ESPN had no problems pulling that trigger in their power rankings…

I am not as optimistic as I’ve been in seasons past about the Cardnal’s chances for going undefeated. But I think my expectation level is just as high as any other season over the last three years!!

I look forward to reveling with my compatriots on January 6!!

Whos OVER-rated

and who’s under-rated?

Much respect to Stanford but after they lose to San Jose State it can’t help their cause since SJSU is not in Wilner’s bias Top 25. How does losing to an under-rated team help?

maddogsfavsnpiks

@ #37 — If the Tree loses to SJS, they would indeed by considered “over-rated”. So far this year, i’ve seen them ranked from 3rd to 11th on over half a dozen pre-season polls…

However, to the extent history informs the present, Stanford has been exceedingly **UNDER-RATED** in the polls over the past 5 years. See the following website analysis for an objective look at the subject…:

It seems to me, they’re finally getting their just due. The Question now is… Can this team play the highest caliber ball, with everyone gunning for them, and against what is probably THE toughest sched in all of FBS/BCS Land…

It certainly is in the top 5 for SOS (Strength of Schedule). Among the other likely, or potentially undefeated (Alabama, Ohio St) contenders for the NCG Stanford has, by far the toughest sched of all of them… So, if and when Stanford runs the table they should receive the highest consideration re SOS calculations in the final computer rankings…

Read it and weep, Minn’s Evening “Normal” School Spartans (BTW – why you chose a fascist icon for your mascot is a mystery and certainly a failure in the history dept).

awaiting moderashun

in the pursuit of liberty no vice! Oh great Cannine of the rabbid too fers! Sched comments excellent. I fear Pac 12 over rated again this yr (look at ly bowl results) esp vs top 10 programs. Ooops maybe there weren’t any. Well top 20. uh…..

None of the following will end up in the top 20 – U$see, Az, A n W states, Weenies, Buffs, U-town, doggies on the fence. That lvs. 3.

Not a real strong group down pipe. Hey, I have some Habilut and will be in the bay area Oct 4. Chance of drop off? Aliases include Notso Shur….

maddogsfavsnpiks

Haha @ “Waiting moderately for Godot”…

Hmmm, only 3 from the PAC eh ?… What did that kid Haley-whatever say to Bruce Willis…? ..”i see pale poll people”…?

imo Stanford, Oregon, UCLA, EwwESSEE (rimes with messy), OSU, Wash, & ASU all have a good shot at the final top 25… ie the top 20% ain’t bad when you’re talkin bout 126 teams in all…

The Card n the Duck are givens…

The West-Woodies have some major attrition to deal with in the D backfield, and who’s gonna step into Jonathan Franklin’s cleats ?, plus their best DL Datone Jones is on to bigger n better sacks n TFLs in the NFL, and Odighizuwa (inj) is out, so they’ve lost 6 of their top 11 tacklers from last year… but they do have a great group of LBs, including Jordan Zumwalt whom Hardballs dearly coveted in the recruiting cycle a few yrs back…

The Trollhams still have their annual embare-assment of wealth in raw talent and should have a chip on their shoulder pads.. to atone for last year’s debacle… however, the me-me bug may still linger in the congestive fogs of that metropolitan nightmare, and the lame kitten’s antics are prolly enough to derail them… i hope i’m wrong tho cuz, tru story, Jeff-Ted was spotted in Compton with John Robinson chatting up the lame one about the team… If “win-one-for-the-Kiffer” isn’t enough motivation for the players, and it prolly isn’t, JT’s waiting in the wings, and if he could win 82 games with the woeful lumbering slumbering Bares, it scares the hell outta me what he could do with all that ToeJam talent…
(oh man, i told them, i warned them.. those ignorant dastardly bares… “you don’t know when you’ve got it good”… but they didn’t listen and now my predictions might come tru so i hate them even more for letting him get away and possibly into the clutches of the “Psyche On” Psychos ! ..what a bunch of douchebags! all of ’em…i’m so filled with hate now it’s oozing out my pores)… anyway, i hope the Muffin Man can get to 9 wins, save his job and live on to lose again… and again… and again…

It’s becoming cliche that Riley is a solid leader and always gets the most out of his rodents… But it’s also true …Check out the sched if you don’t believe me — i think he’ll be in the mix, and they could easily be undefeated (7-0) when the Tree faces those wood-chipping gnashers on 10/26 for the Beav’s Homecoming game in Gnawland, which just outside Portland.. – i shur wouldn’t wanna get them riled up n rule out Riley…

Sark the Shark should get over the 7-win hump and make it to 9 fins or wins or whatever this year… He’s feeling the pressure from impatient fans and boosters, but he’s got one of the most imposing TEs in the country, good receivers, experienced OL, capable QB, and a solid DC in Justin Wilcox… if they can just beat the Boys from Boise in a couple weeks to kick off the ssn on the right foot… — well, even if they can’t, they will be a threat…

As for the devils from the inferno that is Aridzona, i can’t say enough about Will “wrecking ball” Sutton !… He anchors a DL that will rival the Cardinal’s, plus they have one of the better young QBs in the league, a couple good RBs, a solid OL and a ruthless coach… People talk about the hype, but i’m not buying it, so they can go to hell – the devils are real this year and coming to a stadium near you… so you better do good !

There you have it… 7 teams in the top 25.

Halibut ? Yes please…

…but, sigh, i’m roasting like a filet on the Bar-B-Q spit that is Vegas, right now as we speak, and prolly will be here thru-out the season… Maybe, if you wouldn’t mind, my daughter’s in SF…?? If that works and is close to where you’ll be..?? Maybe she can meet you and save some for me in the freezer… Or lemme know if n when you plan to head even more souther…

MostWanted

Hey Wilner,

Do they even use the AP poll anymore? Are they going to next year when BCS goes bye bye?