The case that Democrats could do better than expected — not well, by any means, merely better than expected — rests a little more in the realm of what artists call negative space: not what there is, but in what there isn’t. There aren’t 50, or even more than about 25, districts in which Republican candidates are unambiguous favorites. There isn’t agreement among pollsters about how the enthusiasm gap is liable to manifest itself. There isn’t any one poll or one forecasting method that is clairvoyant, or that hasn’t made some pretty significant errors in the past.

Instead, the case for Democrats is basically: yes, the news is bad, it just isn’t exactly as bad as you think, or at least we can’t be sure that it is.

Multiple hour by hour guides to watching the results roll in

Silver also has one of many hour by hour guides to watching the results roll in. Others:

Locally: Look here for numbers. We're almost certainly looking at a Johnson County turnout record. The old mark is 44,292 from four years ago. There's already 24,778 absentees returned (with more to come), 10,000 more than in 2006. We saw just over 28,000 at the polls in 2006; the early voting surge may eat into that a bit, especially since Republicans actually played the early voting game this cycle. But election day turnout can drop by 8,000 yet still beat the overall turnout record.

Factoid: Going into Election Day, county registration is higher (92,610) than it was going into the presidential (92,222). Plus we have something we didn't have in 2006: election day registration. If you're watching the 21 bar race, watch Iowa City precincts 3,5, 11, 19, and 20.