Poroshenko’s Ukraine

Petro Poroshenko has a terrifyingly difficult task. As Ukraine’s president-elect, he has to try to keep his country together.

Poroshenko, known as the “Chocolate King” thanks to his fortune in Ukraine’s confectionery industry, carried the presidential election on May 25 with over 55 percent of the vote, giving him a mandate that even Moscow won’t find easy to contest. Far-right parties did miserably. That puts paid to the propaganda meted out by Russia’s state-run media that Ukraine’s interim government was run by fascists and anti-Semites.

Poroshenko’s first-round victory also means that Ukraine was spared a bitter run-off between him and Yulia Tymoshenko. The former prime minister won only 15 percent of the vote. That confirmed all the opinion polls that Ukrainians wanted a break with a past dominated by corruption, mismanagement, and broken promises. Above all, they voted for Poroshenko because they wanted an end to instability and the chance to build a state.

Over the past decade, successive Ukrainian leaders had chiseled away at the very foundations of the state. Ministries and state-owned companies, particularly in the energy sector, as well as the security forces are rife with corruption. By the time Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from the presidency in February, the Ukrainian state barely functioned. It had been stripped of all integrity.

This explains to some extent why Ukraine’s security forces were unable to stop Russia from taking over the Crimean peninsula or why they could not prevent pro-Russian militia groups from taking over parts of Eastern Ukraine. By default, it was often left up to powerful local oligarchs to restore some kind of order. Over the past quarter of a century, politics in Ukraine have been substituted by the rule of oligarchs.

Poroshenko, himself an oligarch, owner of a television station, and enormously rich, now faces the task of moving Ukraine away from an oligarchy. If Ukrainian democracy, which was so hard fought for on Kiev’s Independence Square, is to survive, Poroshenko has to rebuild the state as a functioning set of independent institutions.

But he is not in control of the whole country—large parts of Eastern Ukraine have fallen to pro-Russian militias. To make matters worse, the new president lacks proper state institutions that he could work with to regain territorial control of the East.

Eastern Ukraine could not even vote properly in the presidential election. Militia groups raided polling stations and intimidated the population so much that 10 percent of Ukraine’s overall electorate did not vote.

In the Donbas region, where Ukraine’s coal mines are based, the polling places did not even open. According to a Reuters report, rebels scoffed at the “fascist junta” and announced a plan to “cleanse their people’s republic of enemy troops.”

During his victory speech in Kiev on May 25, Poroshenko said his first visit would be to the Donbas. He said he was prepared to consider some aspects of regional autonomy and to respect language rights. “To people who have taken up arms but are not using them, we are ready to grant an amnesty,” he told a news conference. “As for those who are killing, they are terrorists, and no country in the world conducts negotiations with terrorists,” he added.

Much depends on Vladimir Putin. The Russian president has already successfully annexed Crimea. The hand-wringing by the EU and the United States and the sanctions they have imposed on Russia are unlikely to reverse that annexation. Moreover, Russia’s interference in Eastern Ukraine has had the result that Moscow wanted: a divided and unstable Ukraine.

Will Putin accept the legitimacy of the ballot? He said before the poll that its result would count. But the deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma and a leading member of Putin’s United Russia party, Sergei Neverov, wrote on Facebook: “It is hard to recognize the legitimacy of elections when tanks and artillery are wiping out civilians and a third of the population is driven to the polling stations at gunpoint.”

It won’t be easy for Poroshenko to counter that disinformation. Nor will it be easy for him to regain control of the pro-Ukrainian civil defense groups that have sprung up to protect what is left of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. If these units are not convinced that Poroshenko can regain control of the East, they could continue waging their own armed struggle against the separatists.

Under such complex circumstances, the EU can’t do much except support Poroshenko politically and send expert advice to assist in institution building. It should also begin disbursing some of the €11 billion ($15 billion) it pledged to the interim government. Such funding is conditional on Kiev implementing major reforms.

Poroshenko, who will need enormous political will to end Ukraine’s corruption, will have to move fast with reforms. At least he has been given a clear mandate to do just that.

As for being president of all of Ukraine, that will be up to Russia. Poroshenko has said he is ready to negotiate with Putin, calling Russia a vital partner. Let’s see how Putin will respond.

Putin in response to the election that made the people of Ukraine to give a mandate Poroshenko's indisputable, not only would i accept them, but as we have heard him say before the election, in the event that Ukraine will require cooperation he will agree to cooperate. As in the political and economic and a development that "normal" relations between Russia and Ukraine would be even a "breach of the embargo" that the U.S. and EU, to even Putin can not be shown in this kind of shortsighted political "shah mat" that has been followed so far in its policy with the world.

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StepanK

May 26, 20141:59 pm

There is something for EU to consider:to help stopping Russian plague from spreading in Ukraine and,eventually,spilling over to EU territory,additional resources allocation is a must.Ukraine must fortify its border with Russia ASAP,but has no monies to do it on her own.As well as no access to modern equipment and expertize.This is something,that is vital for everyone.Present day terrorism is extremely contagious and must be contained and eliminated rather quickly.

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sidney sloth

May 27, 20149:39 am

It appears that we have found our principles. It is not the rule of oligarchs we dislike, but rather the rule of the wrong oligarchs. Poroschenko is clearly a good guy.
The deal he is being offered by Russia is not easy. He has to throw Kolomoisky under the bus. The west has agreed to that, but it is easier said than done. As the article notes, Ukraine's oligarchs rule with private armies. If Poroschenko does try to throw him under the bus, it could create civil war in the west. Russia doesn't care. Indeed, even if Poroschenko does the deed, they will probably ask the next guy to do the same to him.

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sidney sloth

May 27, 20141:06 pm

Indeed, it is well to note that Putin does not seem to care if the west believes him or not. It is not hard to see why he might feel this way. Russians are dying. He sees himself as their grand saviour. Events are conspiring to cast him as the grand saviour of the slavic people.
Meanwhile, the great white light of western political insight is that Putin has special forces active in Ukraine.
Dare one say, "of course!"?
Venting about Putin or Russia is not diplomacy. It isn't geopolitics. It is an indulgence.

What else can we do but demonize putin for the criminal he is? Russians are dying where and how many? Shouldn't you have said Ukrainians are dying...but for you they obviously don't count! Should Putin have invaded the sovereign country of Ukraine... Crimea? Should he have any say in Ukraine at all? Does Ukraine or anyother other country in the world have a say in Russia? It's such pure arrogance and a totalitarian mentally that has the audacity to even suggest that Russia should have a say in Ukraine's affairs. It's so offensive to me that I want to scream at the imperialists who say it. If he's so worried about Russians dying bring them to Russia...If the Russian seperatists want Russia let them back their bags and move them. I'll stage their houses, apt's etc., and sell them for no fee. How does one have diplomacy with a totalitarian like Putin and his regime.? It's either his way or the highway and you know it!! Ukrainians all around the world will never forgive him for what he is doing to Ukraine. Sooner or later he and his regime will get their just deserts!

Putin's response was that "I am ready to enter in negotiations with any prime minister who will take the direction of the state in Ukraine", that "I am ready to restore peace and normalcy in Ukraine". This alert and the normality of Putin expressed in terms of new Russia-Ukraine relations. Acceptance of separation de-jure and de-facto Crimea but also in eastern Ukraine attempts to starved and broken Poroshenko's willingness to restore the "rule of law and democracy" in favor of the stability of Ukraine. This will be the first step in normalization with Russia.

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sidney sloth

May 29, 20146:48 am

Sandy, my daughter is both Lithuanian and also Australian, because of her poor choice of parents. She will be in Lithuania next month. If she were to be killed, would you grant her the dignity of dying as both an Australian and also a Lithuanian?
This simple minded dichotomy where Russians live on one side of a line and Ukrainians live on another is not just weird, it is also the cornerstone of the violence. Self appointed people and groups have declared themselves the true custodians of "Ukraine", and they have demonised and persecuted those they reject due to their ethnic russian heritage. Insofar as Putin is duty bound to protect russians, and insofar as he must end the ethnic cleansing of russians in Ukraine, he will earn the admiration of all Russians. And of everyone who cares for Russians.
Nobody (sane) cares about an ethnically pure Ukraine.

It is very possible that Russia has decided to move beyond the sadly traditional sponsorship of pet oligarchs in Ukraine, and now seeks to create a new structural reality in Ukrainian state affairs.
Consider the history of Ukrainian politics, and particularly Akhmetov. Akhmetov has always been "Russia's man". He was always on the side of the party of the regions, and up until very recently he even funded separatism in the east against the cabal of western centric oligarchs. That was business as usual, with oligarchs competing for power in Ukraine.
But now something has changed. Akhmetov is clearly rattled, and has come out in strident tones against the separatists. So we must understand, Russia has abandoned him. He is not part of their plans for the future of Ukraine.
This implies that Russia is seeking to build support for an entirely new set of political institutions in Ukraine, and that has the most profound implications for the very significant western investment in the Ukrainian state.

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