Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 191959
SWODY1
SPC AC 191957
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm threat will focus over southern Louisiana.
...Discussion...
Convection associated with warm advection has shifted downstream a
bit and is now focused over southern LA. Most of this activity is
lightning-free and trends are definitely down regarding deep
convection. Have lowered thunder probs across the coastal Plain of
TX; otherwise, no appreciable changes are warranted.
..Darrow.. 11/19/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
...Synopsis/Forecast...
A semi-amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS
through tonight with prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow east of the
Rockies. A front will move eastward across the TN Valley and middle
Gulf Coast region. Weak ascent focused near the front along with
weak elevated instability will support isolated/occasional
thunderstorms from the upper TX coast into LA and southern MS.
Richer maritime air mass and any surfaced-based storms are likely to
remain offshore over the open Gulf of Mexico waters, thus the inland
severe-weather potential is likely to remain low.
Farther east, a weak coastal low is expected to form near the Outer
Banks of NC this afternoon and subsequently develop northeastward
over the western Atlantic through tonight. 12Z surface observations
show higher dewpoints reside just offshore, and the potential for
isolated thunderstorms should likewise remain over open waters just
to the east of coastal NC.
$$