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Regional Parties hold Sway

The upcoming assembly elections in the four states; Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu cum Pondicherry and Kerala is seemingly very different. These realm states of India are far from the high politics orchestrated from Delhi Durbar. In all these states, barring Assam the regional parties are holding the sway.

Assam: The illegal immigrant issue is again being raked up by the BJP to whip up national sentiments. The interesting twist in this angle; while the BJP’s leader, ArunJaitely says, if BJP comes to power in Assam it will seal the border with Bangladesh, the Tripura Chief Minster wants the visa regime to be withdrawn with Bangladesh and free movement of people to cross the border. In fact both BJP and the Congress are worried about the UDF the third force in Assam. The UDF is not PDP of J&K and will never align with the BJP. In such case the verdict is out before the pollsters get their act together or the ballots being cast.

West Bengal: Here the contest is between the Trinamool Congress and left and Congress combine. The Trinamool, though facing anti-incumbency has enough pull than termite ridden Left and even the alliance with the Congress while not shore its prospects, the result that ruling government will return to power is not a matter of guess.The lotus bud is looking for buddies in west Bengal, and so far has not been successful. The party is making noises only in the urban areas.

Tamil Nadu: Here the Dravidian parties are holding since 1968 and there is no dent in such outlook even this time as well. The state sees rotation of regime since 1977 with DMK and AAIADMK altering in power. The BJP has no presence in the state and Congress aligning with the DMK is an act of making its presence felt. The mismanagement of Chennai floods, anti-incumbency factorsare bothering the ruling AIADMK but if the Supreme Court gives clean cheat to the AIADMK leader in the corruption case, the situation may change in this state.

However, going by the norm it’s DMK that may come to power in Tamil Nadu. This may bethe last election for the DMK patriarch and if the party wins he will be the CM for the last time.

Pondicherry: The electoral history of Pondicherry assembly election suggests that whichever party rules Tamil Nadu also comes to power in Pondicherry.

Kerala: United Democratic Front (UDF) the coalition of parties led by the Indian National Congress and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) the coalition of mainly the leftist parties, led by Communist Party of India (CPI-M)are the two major political coalitions in this state. Here the regime change is very much on cards. The LDF may form the next government but it may be a much weaker force than ever before. In Kerala, the BJP has made some inroads mayand open an account winning a seat or two but beyond that is just day dreaming.