Election pollwatch + Opinion polls | The Guardianhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/series/election-pollwatch+polls
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Pollwatch: Election forecasts hold up but questions remain for analystshttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/07/pollwatch-election-projections
Pollsters told us more or less what would happen but have not yet explained local differences or Clegg's collapse<p>For the opinion pollsters the 2010 election was neither a humiliation like 1992 nor a routinely efficient performance like 2005, but wayward and difficult to capture accurately. It was at least good for business, in that there was an unprecedented volume of polling commissioned during the campaign. The average error on the eve of poll forecasts was bigger than last time, largely because the Liberal Democrat vote was falling faster than they could measure accurately in the final days. But the rough impression, if not the exact numbers, did convey what was going on.</p><p>The last round of opinion polls before election day showed the Conservatives on about 35-37%, Labour somewhere around 29%, and the Lib Dems a bit below that and on a downward trend. The exit poll, organised by broadcasting and polling consortiums, was met with raised eyebrows by the broadcasters and even the occasional journalist and commentator, because it was quite so bearish for the Lib Dems and showed the Tories well short of an overall majority. I recall saying something about eating my hat if the Lib Dems were as low as 59 MPs, but it was the pollsters who had the last laugh. The seats projection was as good as anyone could ask for, even though it was not the story we were expecting.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/07/pollwatch-election-projections">Continue reading...</a>General election 2010Opinion pollsConservativesLabourLiberal DemocratsPoliticsUK newsFri, 07 May 2010 14:18:31 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/07/pollwatch-election-projectionsGareth Fuller/PANick Clegg during the election campaign. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PAGareth Fuller/PANick Clegg during the election campaign. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PALewis Baston2010-05-07T14:18:31ZPollwatch: Election campaign is now a war of movement rather than attrition | Lewis Bastonhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/21/pollwatch-election-campaign-war
The surge in support for the Lib Dems adds two element of huge uncertainty into the electoral equation<p></p><p>Although details vary between pollsters, the position on the eve of the second debate seems to be that the Conservatives and Lib Dems are fighting it out for first place, with support somewhere in the low 30% range.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/21/pollwatch-election-campaign-war">Continue reading...</a>General election 2010Opinion pollsPoliticsUK newsLiberal DemocratsLabourConservativesWed, 21 Apr 2010 15:17:11 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/21/pollwatch-election-campaign-warLewis Baston2010-04-21T15:17:11ZPollwatch: The impossible seems to be happening for the Liberal Democratshttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/19/pollwatch-liberal-democrats-nick-clegg
Nick Clegg's party has rewritten the expected election script, piling pressure on both Labour and the Tories<p></p><p>Later today, a Guardian/ICM poll – the first to be completed by the company since the leaders' debate – will confirm whether the Liberal Democrats' extraordinary advance is continuing.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/19/pollwatch-liberal-democrats-nick-clegg">Continue reading...</a>Opinion pollsLiberal DemocratsNick CleggConservativesDavid CameronLabourGordon BrownGeneral election 2010PoliticsUK newsMon, 19 Apr 2010 10:02:30 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/19/pollwatch-liberal-democrats-nick-cleggKen Mckay/EPANick Clegg's Liberal Democrats are in first place in a YouGov poll. Photograph: Ken Mckay/EPAKen Mckay/EPANick Clegg profited from the way the other leaders' fear of losing outweighed their deisre to win – in the words of Martin Tyler. Photograph: Ken Mckay/EPAJulian Glover2010-04-19T10:02:30ZPollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the posthttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/18/pollwatch-election-first-past-the-post
Electoral system could not long survive a perverse outcome in which first party comes third, and third comes first<p>Small-c conservatives often argue that before a reform is introduced it should be tested not only against normal operating conditions but also against unlikely possibilities, because these can produce unintended consequences.</p><p>The first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system is capable of spectacular malfunctions, particularly when there are more than two parties in contention for the lead. YouGov, ComRes and Bpix this weekend showed four-point spreads between first and third parties, and election outcomes that seemed extreme must now be considered.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/18/pollwatch-election-first-past-the-post">Continue reading...</a>General election 2010Opinion pollsFirst past the postElectoral reformPoliticsSun, 18 Apr 2010 21:39:48 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/18/pollwatch-election-first-past-the-postLewis Baston2010-04-18T21:39:48ZPollwatch: Debate sees Lib Dems' star rising to set Tory nerves janglinghttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/16/pollwatch-debate-lib-dems-tories
The party in yellow always sees a spike during campiagns due to higher visibility but Conservatives should still be wary<p></p><p>Even if the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/16/nick-clegg-guardian-icm-poll-pm" title="">first reports</a> of the post-debate boost for Nick Clegg were a bit outlandish, it seems that the leadership debates have added to the usual lift that the Lib Dems get from election campaigns.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/16/pollwatch-debate-lib-dems-tories">Continue reading...</a>Opinion pollsGeneral election 2010Liberal DemocratsConservativesLabourUK newsFri, 16 Apr 2010 17:52:59 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/16/pollwatch-debate-lib-dems-toriesLewis Baston2010-04-16T17:52:59ZPollwatch: Conservative lead narrowed, but two polls don't make a trendhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/14/pollwatch-conservative-lead-narrows
The latest findings from Populus and ComRes may be just a statistical quirk<p>Two polls today, by Populus for the Times and ComRes for ITN and the Independent, narrowed the Conservative lead, dangerously so for David Cameron's hopes of becoming prime minister. It remains to be seen whether these are the start of a trend or a statistical quirk.</p><p>Across the board, the polls barely shifted in the first week of the campaign. The Conservatives remain within a point or two of 38% support, and Labour within a similar distance of 31% in nearly all the polls. Perhaps this is not very surprising, because the first week was not particularly engaging and the big setpiece events of the campaign – the manifesto launches and the leader debates – were all yet to take place.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/14/pollwatch-conservative-lead-narrows">Continue reading...</a>Opinion pollsGeneral election 2010ConservativesPoliticsUK newsWed, 14 Apr 2010 15:56:21 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/14/pollwatch-conservative-lead-narrowsLewis Baston2010-04-14T15:56:21ZPollwatch: More encouragement than Labour might have expectedhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/12/pollwatch-general-election-opinion-polls
Latest findings from YouGov put Tory lead at six points – the lower end of their comfort zone<p></p><p>Perhaps the election result is already staring us in the face. A week into the campaign, the polls are converging – Labour is bouncing around in the low 30s, the Tories in the high 30s and the Liberal Democrats around 20.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/12/pollwatch-general-election-opinion-polls">Continue reading...</a>Opinion pollsLabourConservativesLiberal DemocratsGeneral election 2010PoliticsUK newsMon, 12 Apr 2010 14:38:03 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/12/pollwatch-general-election-opinion-pollsLewis Whyld/PAThe latestYouGove poll puts David Cameron's Conservatives in a six-point lead. Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PALewis Whyld/PAConservative Party Leader David Cameron during a visit to the Fuller's Brewery in Chiswick, west London. Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PAJulian Glover2010-04-12T14:38:03Z