Poll: Virginia

Sen. George Allen (R) v. James Webb (D)

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The Mason-Dixon Virginia Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from October 17 through October 19, 2006. A total of 625 registered voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated that they were likely to vote in the November general election.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or racial grouping.

ALLEN OPENS NARROW LEAD,
ALLEGED RACIAL REMARKS NOT IMPORTANT TO MOST VOTERS

Incumbent Republican Senator George Allen has opened a slight lead over Democratic challenger Jim Webb in his re-election race, but the race remains very competitive. Allen’s slump has appeared to have hit bottom and rebounded some, as most Virginia voters indicate that alleged racial slurs he may have used as a student at the University of Virginia are not going to be an important factor in their voting decision.

Statewide, 47% of likely voters currently support Allen, while 43% back Webb, 2% are for independent Gail Parker and 8% are undecided. In late September, Webb had pulled into a 43%-43% tie with Allen, amidst the charges of Allen’s past behavior.

Allen still leads in the rural most regions of the state, and the Richmond metro area, while Webb is ahead in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Allen leads among men (49%-41%), while the race is even (45%-45%) among women.

Allen could still be hampered by President Bush’s continued mixed job rating – which remains at 42% positive -- and the 45%-43% plurality that would rather see Democrats control of the U.S. Senate.

Webb’s favorable name recognition has increased only slightly over the past few weeks, but his unfavorable recognition jumped from 20% to 28%.

WEBB NAME RECFAVUNFAVNEUTDR

July 2006 21% 11% 35% 33%

September 2006 28% 7% 43% 22%

Late September 2006 ** 31% 20% 41% 8%

October 2006 34% 28% 33% 5%

The impact of the allegations about Allen’s use of racial slurs while a student at the University of Virginia over 30 years ago seem to have faded with state voters. They are divided over whether or not the charges are true, with 30% feeling they are true, 28% feeling they are false and 42% not sure or not caring. Only 15% said the charges had any importance in their voting decision, 83% indicated they were not important.

Allen is in slightly better shape than he was a few weeks ago, however, his re-election is hardly guaranteed. He continues to run under the 50% threshold and his personal popularity is far more mixed now than it was just a few months ago. Most of the damage has been self-inflicted, but there is also a degree of anti-Republican sentiment present this year in this generally Red State.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the war on terror?

STATEMENWOMENDEMSREPSINDS

APPROVE 57% 59% 55% 21% 97% 50%

DISAPPROVE 37% 36% 38% 67% 2% 44%

NOT SURE 6% 5% 7% 12% 1% 6%

QUESTION: Senator George Allen has been accused of using racial slurs over thirty years ago, while a student at the University of Virginia. Do you believe these accusations are true or false?

UNDECIDED
STATEMENWOMENDEMSREPSINDSVOTERS

TRUE 30% 29% 31% 43% 16% 31% 29%

FALSE 28% 31% 25% 8% 50% 23% 10%

NOT SURE 42% 40% 44% 49% 34% 46% 61%

QUESTION: How important of a factor are these accusations in your voting decision in this year’s U.S. Senate race? Are they very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all?