Hopes of normal rains increase with weakened El Nino

ET BureauApr 15, 2010, 11.13pm IST

NEW DELHI: Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has reported that key indicators in the Pacific Basin point to an El Nino climate episode continuing to break down sooner than predicted earlier. That could add to the optimism over the possibility of normal monsoons in India this summer. In end March, IMD officials said they expect normal rains this year despite an El Nino-induced drought affecting Southeast Asia's spring crop.

Many parts of Southeast Asia are experiencing unusually dry weather due to El Nino, prompting concern the ongoing harvest and upcoming summer planting of rice may be affected.

The worst drought in 37 years last summer hit the summer-sown crop hard in India, where more than 65% of the farmland is rain-fed. The government is hoping the rains won't fail again as that could further increase food prices and slow economic expansion.

Reports from Australia said the bureau reported, in a two week analysis, that the Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, has risen strongly in recent weeks, now measuring plus 6 in the 30 days ended April 12, up from minus 11 in March and the highest 30-day SOI since June 2009. An SOI of around minus 10 for several months is indicative of an El Nino.

The bureau also reported that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have continued to cool in the past two weeks, but remain above El Nino thresholds, while temperatures in all the main monitoring areas are now less than 1.0 degree Celsius above normal, a situation that last occurred in late September 2009.

Subsurface temperatures have also fallen with cooler-than-normal conditions now apparent below much of the equatorial Pacific, with a number of indicators at their lowest levels since March 2009, the bureau reported.