Re: Thursday Service Plays

The Bulls put their undefeated record and Top 10 ranking on the line this Thursday, as they host the Panthers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

South Florida may be perfect on the season, but it hasn’t come easy as three of their five wins have come by eight points or less. Last weekend the Bulls did take care of business in convincing fashion, winning at North Carolina State, 41-10.

South Florida has been here before, as they won five straight games to open the season last year; however, they stumbled in a Thursday night game at 5-0 in 2007, losing to Rutgers.

As for Pittsburgh, it got conference play underway last weekend with a 34-24 triumph at hapless Syracuse. It was the third straight win by the Panthers, who have recovered from a 27-17 season-opening loss to Bowling Green and are flying a bit under the radar.

The Panthers are coming off their best offensive performance of the season, as they racked up 407 total yards, including 241 on the ground at Syracuse last weekend. The offense even controlled the ball for over 38 minutes and that is good news for this Pittsburgh team, which is averaging 153 rushing ypg and 200 passing ypg for the season. LeSean McCoy led the charge, as he rushed for 149 yards on 28 carries. It was the first 100-yard effort of the season by McCoy, who had high hopes for a big season. Fellow back, LaRod Stephens-Howling, also got involved against Syracuse, rushing for 71 yards and his first two touchdowns on 13 carries. With the success on the ground, quarterback Bill Stull just needed to manage the offense and he did so by throwing for 166 yards and a score on 17-of-29 pass attempts. Stull hasn't put up big numbers this season, but he has done a decent job in passing for 200 ypg.

Defensively, the Panthers have been stingy this season and opposing clubs are managing just 118 ypg on the ground and only 188 ypg through the air against them. The unit has also registered 13 sacks.

The Bulls obviously had their way with the WolfPack this past weekend, amassing 520 total yards and 29 first downs in a 41-10 triumph. The offense did it on the ground, rushing for 245 yards, and through the air, passing for 275 yards, and didn't commit a single turnover in the process.

Matt Grothe, as usual, did a little of everything for South Florida, as he led the team with 68 rushing yards, in addition to throwing for 259 yards and a score on 20-of-29 pass attempts. Grothe's ability to take off with the ball is a big reason why the Bulls are averaging over 200 rushing ypg on the season.

The defense is giving up just 244 total ypg, with just 59 of those ypg coming on the ground; however, there are some dark clouds on the horizon due to injures.

LB Brouce Mompremier was injured against Florida International 2 weeks ago and is still out.

DE George Selvie did not play against NC State and is doubtful for this game.

SS Carlton Williams played last week, but reinjured his hip that initially occurred against Florida International.

That’s just the main injuries on the defensive side of the ball. With so many troops out from the stop unit, this gives us an opportunity to play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries.

If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as an offensive line without 2+ starters or a defensive backfield missing its top 3 cornerbacks, also figures to struggle. Here, South Florida faces a short week and a very determined team that is getting its “mojo” back after its season-opening loss.

Pitt has become something of an upset specialist, and they hope to spring another one against South Florida. The game is the Panthers 15th Thursday night appearance on ESPN, more than any other Big East school, and they have won four of their last five.

A year ago, Pittsburgh pulled off one of the most stunning upsets in college football history when they deprived their biggest rival, West Virginia, of a chance to play for the national championship in the regular season's final game. They also upset #23 Cincinnati last season.

Several numbers show the Panthers in a good spot here, as they went 4-0 ATS (+12.2 ppg) overall as a road underdog of 7+ points last season, and they are a strong 8-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) over the past decade as a regular season underdog of 7+ points vs. an undefeated opponent.

Meanwhile, South Florida is a miserable 0-5 ATS (-13.5 ppg) all-time as a non-Saturday favorite/pick ‘em.

Additionally, we have discovered an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM showing that unbeaten favorites of 1-3 TDs have run into trouble against revenge-minded foes off a victory in the second half of the season. It states:

From Game 6 on, play AGAINST an undefeated favorite of 6½-20½ points vs. an opponent off a SU win and seeking revenge for a SU loss.

All the parameters are active here, as this is the 6th game of the season for the unbeaten Bulls, they are favored by nearly 2 TDs, and will face a revenge-minded Pitt team off a SU win. Such teams are 0-13 ATS just since 2005, failing to cover the spread by more than 14 ppg on average! Such a spread loss here for South Florida would result in an outright loss. While that is not out of the question, we do think they’ll hold on, but only by a TD, and fail to cover this relatively large number.

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Brian Hansen

Game: Pittsburgh Panthers at South Florida Prediction: Under

Most expect a shootout. As usual, they're dead wrong! Friends, let me be the first to tell you that this game will be a defensive battle. The Under is 3-1 last 4 times when Pittsburgh is an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. The Under is 2-0 when Pittsburgh is a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. The Under is 6-3 last 3 years when Pittsburgh has played on a grass field and that includes a PERFECT 3-0 record this year. Want more? The Under is 7-1 the last 8 times the Bulls were involved in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49. That's 87.5%, a percentage that even I'll gladly take. All together now: D-E-F-E-N-S-E. D-E-F-E-N-S-E. D-E-F-E-N-S-E. Go Under!

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Pittsburgh and head coach Dave Wannstedt get unwarranted slaps in the face as far as I’m concerned. The Panthers have yet to surpass the .500 mark and have failed to make it to a bowl in his three years so it arguably can be said that they have underachieved. However, Wannstedt is finally directing his own players now and with an experienced group, they will be contending for the Big East title. A scare in Syracuse last week due to a possible lookahead here will have Pittsburgh focused. The Bulls are 5-0 and right now look like the team to beat in the conference. They looked very impressive last week in dismantling NC State but overall, they have not exactly been a dominating team. The week before they snuck by a horrid Florida International team following a close win over Kansas. It took overtime to take out Central Florida and the first win was over FCS team Tennessee-Martin. This team is solid but should not be laying two touchdowns in conference action against a top tiered team.

The South Florida defense is solid as it is ranked 8th in the nation overall and 4th against the run, allowing just 58.8 ypg. Now comes a test however. The last three offenses the Bulls have faces are ranked 94th, 113th and 110th in rushing offense and the Panthers, while ranked 60th currently, will be the toughest test to date. They rushed for a season high 241 yards and while Syracuse was not a big test, it does provide momentum. Overall, Pittsburgh is averaging 152.8 ypg and 4.1 ypc.

The defense could very well be short handed once again as South Florida All-American defensive end George Selvie and defensive tackle Terrell McClain likely will miss their second consecutive game. On the other side, the Panthers defense is playing well, allowing just 306.5 ypg, which is 32nd in the nation. The team allowed just 254 total yards to Bowling Green in the opener but it was hurt by four turnovers. The Panthers should very well be 4-0 heading into this game.

The rushing defense of the Bulls as mentioned is solid but Pittsburgh falls into a contrarian situation based on that defense. Play against home favorites between 10.5 and 21 points that are allowing fewer than 100 ypg on the ground, after giving up fewer than 40 yards rushing in their last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS L7 road games against a team with a winning record while the Bulls are 0-6 ATS L6 against teams with a winning record. Play Pittsburgh Panthers 2.5 Units

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Bob Balfe

College FootballPittsburgh/South Florida Over 51When you bet on Pittsburgh you never know which Panthers team will show up. This is the most unpredictable team to bet on in the nation so hopefully tonight they continue that trend and give USF a game. South Florida is one of those schools that need to win and win big for style points. This team knows that even if they run the table they would need a lot of outside help. Pittsburgh allowed a ton of points to Syracuse and will have no answer for South Florida. When the Bulls are on defense they will be without two starters one being George Selvie who is the heart of the defense. Without that leadership I expect Pitt to score more. Look for both teams to score enough to push this over the total.

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