Saturday, January 05, 2013

Seer madness: Readers and I do our duty, predict 2013

With the help of several Latin scholars I’ve come up with a fittingly snooty motto for this column’s annual exercise in forecasting the news:

Non coniectare imprudentior esset

Translation: Not to conjecture is imprudent.

Inspiration: “Is it irresponsible to speculate? It would be irresponsible not to,” a defensive quip by former Reagan administration speechwriter Peggy Noonan justifying the wild, unsupported surmise in a 2000 Wall Street Journal column that the U.S was returning young Cuban refugee Elian Gonzalez to Cuba because Fidel Castro was blackmailing President Bill Clinton.

Rationalization: We are a speculative species. We not only enjoy for its own sake looking forward through the prism of experience, we also occasionally find it useful – illuminating, broadening, sobering.

With that out of the way, here’s how 2013 shapes up based on my projections and the collective wisdom of respondents to my 25-question online poll.

Law and Order

Readers and I agree that former Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. will be indicted in the coming year (80 percent of respondents) and that we’ll see convictions or guilty pleas in pending cases involving state Rep. Derrick Smith, D-Chicago (91 percent), Cook County Commissioner William Beavers (86 percent) and state Sen. Donne Trotter (51 percent).

Hindsight tells us never to bet against the U.S. Attorney’s office when they’re going after politicians. The local firearms charge against Trotter for allegedly having a handgun in his bag when he went through security at O’Hare International Airport looks both cut-and-dried and likely to be bargained down to a lesser, minor offense.

We also agree that George Zimmerman is likely to be acquitted of second-degree murder in the shooting death of unarmed teenager Trayvon Martin last February in Sanford, Fla. (56 percent). The evidence I’ve seen so far — the timeline of events, the various witness accounts — suggests that there’s at least reasonable doubt that would-be vigilante Zimmerman was the aggressor in the seconds leading up to the fatal altercation.

I also think jurors will find reasonable doubt when Richard “R.J.” Vanecko faces involuntary manslaughter charges in the 2004 death of David Koschman — not because Vanecko is a nephew of former Mayor Richard M. Daley, but because witness memories of the tragic, drunken wee-hours confrontation that left Koschman dead will be too blurred by alcohol and the passage of time for fact-finders to confidently apportion blame. However, 55 percent of readers disagree with me.

Politics and Government

My sense is that state Sen. Toi Hutchinson, D. Olympia Fields (left), has the inside track in the race to replace former U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., a race that will almost certainly go to the winner of the Feb. 26th Democratic primary.

Multiple candidates have filed in the largely suburban district, and Hutchinson looks to have the best chance to coalesce the suburban vote. However, a plurality of readers think the nod will go to former U.S. Rep. Debbie Halvorson (33 percent), even though she ran a very weak primary race against Jackson in 2012.

Who will be off and running in the 2014 race for Illinois governor by the end of 2013? Readers and I agree that Bill Daley, brother of the former mayor, will be challenging Gov. Pat Quinn for the Democratic nomination, and that Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan will once again decide to sit out a run for higher office.

Daley is already talking more like a candidate than we’ve ever heard, and he’s sounding sure that he can bring his brainy managment style to bear on the grave fiscal problems facing the state. Madigan, the state’s top vote getter, seems still to lack the consuming ambition that for years many of us have projected onto her. She likes her current job. She’s good at it. Crazy thought, but maybe she doesn’t want to be governor, particularly when her father is still speaker of the Illinois House.

On the Republican side, the most interesting question is whether up-and-coming Peoria Congressman Aaron Schock will join the predictable cast of GOP strivers in the race for governor in 2014. I say no, he’ll bide his time and wait for other opportunites. But 59 percent of readers disagree.

In Massachusetts, Republicans have high hopes that former Sen. Scott Brown or another member of their party will succeed Democratic Sen. John Kerry when, presumptively, he is confirmed as secretary of state. Seventy-two percent of readers and I say that won’t happen.

Readers and I agree that this will be the year the General Assembly finally OK’s a casino in Chicago (59 percent) and the dispensation of medical marijuana (37 percent plurality vote). Readers also think that state lawmakers will legalize gay marriage in 2013 (72 percent), though I see them postponing it for at least a year when it will be an easier lift because, I predict, the U.S. Supreme Court will rule in favor of same-sex marriage in California and perhaps the rest of the nation (69 percent of readers agree).

Readers and I also agree that, in a landmark ruling, the Supreme Court will significantly curtail the use of race-based affirmative action at public colleges and universities (61 percent), that President Barack Obama’s approval rating at the end of the year will be between 50 and 55 percent and that Chicago Police Supt. Garry McCarthy will keep his job (72 percent).

Sports

We agree: Alabama will beat Notre Dame in college football’s championship game Monday night (62 percent), the Bulls won’t get past the first round of the NBA playoffs (67 percent) and pro hockey ain’t coming back this season (69 percent). And though it no longer really counts, before Bears coach Lovie Smith was fired, 68 percent of readers had already agreed with my prediction that he’d get the broom by the end of next season.

Miscellaneous

Skepticism abounds about the will of Chicago Public Schools administrators to close underpopulated schools. Though officials have reported that 136 schools are more than half empty and that 330 are “underutilized,” a plurality of readers (49 percent) predict they’ll only close 30 or fewer such schools. I’m guessing it’ll be from 31 to 60 schools.

I’m also more optimistic than readers about jobs. I’m forecasting an end-of-year unemployment rate of between 6 and 7 percent; 64 percent of readers think it will be higher than that.

We’re preparing to say goodbye to Jenny McCarthy’s Sun-Times advice column (78 percent), but a narrow majority of readers differ with me and predict that WGN-AM 720 host Jonathan Brandmeier’s morning program will survive the year.

Coin flips

Based purely on hunches, readers and I agree that Chicago will get only from 20 to 30 inches of snow this winter, well below the 41 inches we’ve been averaging the past decade. I say Kate Middleton’s baby will be a boy. Readers say she’ll have a girl (48 percent) or male-female twins (5 percent).

Would it be irresponsible for you to take these predictions to the bank?

Yes, in any language.

List of results:

Will the Illinois General Assembly OK the construction of a casino in Chicago?
Yes
59%

Which team will win college football's BCS National Championship Game Jan. 7?
Alabama
62%

Will former U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. be indicted?
Yes
80%

Who will win the race to replace former U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.?

Anthony Beale
5%

Debbie Halvorson
33%

Napoleon Harris
6%

James Hickey
2%

Toi Hutchinson
17%

Robin Kelly
10%

Larry Pickens
2%

Mel Reynolds
9%

Other
16%

Who will challenge Gov. Pat Quinn for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2014?

Bill Daley
33%

Lisa Madigan
17%

Both Bill Daley and Lisa Madigan
27%

Neither Bill Daley nor Lisa Madigan
24%

Will U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock of Peoria run for governor in the GOP primary?
Yes
59%

The Illinois General Assembly will...

Vote to legalize gay marriage
38%

OK medical marijuana
3%

Do both
34%

Do neither
25%

The U.S. Supreme Court will....

Rule that gay marriage should be allowed in California, at least
24%

Rule that affirmative action should be greatly curtailed at public universities
16%

Both
45%

Neither
16%

Will former Senator Scott Brown or another Republican win the U.S. Senate seat now held by presumptive U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry? No
72%

Will the Bulls advance past the first round of the NBA playoffs? No
67%

What will be the sex of the royal offspring?

Male
47%

Female
48%

Both (twins!)
5%

Will Lovie Smith still be the Bears head coach on Dec. 15, 2013? No
68% (prior to Smith's firing)

How many schools will CPS close before the start of classes in the fall?

30 or fewer
49%

31-60
33%

61-90
13%

91-120
4%

121 or more
1%

Will Jenny McCarthy still be writing an advice column for the Chicago Sun-Times a year from now? No
78%

What will the U.S. unemployment rate be when the jobs numbers come out on the first Friday of December, 2013?

Under 6 percent
4%

Between 6 and 7 percent
32%

Between 7 and 8 percent
49%

Between 8 and 9 percent
9%

Between 9 and 10 percent
4%

Over 10 percent
2%

Will Jonathon Brandmeier still be the morning-drive host on WGN AM 720 a year from now?
Yes
51%

Will Garry McCarthy (no relation to Jenny) still be the superintendent of the Chicago Police Department a year from now?
Yes
72%

Will there be pro hockey this season? No
69%

Will Richard "R.J." Vanecko be convicted of involuntary manslaughter in the 2004 death of David Koschman?
Yes
55%

Will George Zimmerman be convicted in the shooting death of Trayvon Martin in Sanford, Fla.? No
56%

Will appointed/arrested/ousted/re-elected Ill. Rep. Derrick Smith, D-Chicago, be found guilty in his corruption trial?
Yes
91%

Will State Sen Donne Trotter, D-Chicago, be convicted of or plead guilty to felony weapons charges related to the incident in which a gun was found in his bag at the airport?
Yes
51%

Will Cook County Commissioner William Beavers be convicted of tax evasion in his upcoming federal trial?
Yes
86%

Chicago got 19.8 inches of snow last year, less than half the 41 inches we'd been averaging the previous 10 years. This year, we'll get....

under 20 inches
38%

20 to 30 inches
55%

30 to 40 inches
5%

more than 40 inches
3%

Recent Gallup daily tracking polls show President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaging around 57 percent. A year ago it in the mid to low 40s. A year from now it will be...

Up above you state: "Multiple candidates have filed in the largely suburban district, and Hutchinson looks to have the best chance to coalesce the suburban vote." Curious on why you think she has the best chance to do that as opposed to the other candidates.

ZORN REPLY -- I think she'll have the money, the organization, the experience and the broad appeal.

More so than Halverson? I'm seeing Hutchinson and Kelly splitting the African-American suburban vote and Halverson getting the white vote, including many GOP that will cross-over for the primary. And now that the district goes down to almost Kankakee - that's a lot more rural white vote.

About "Change of Subject."

"Change of Subject" by Chicago Tribune op-ed columnist Eric Zorn contains observations, reports, tips, referrals and tirades, though not necessarily in that order. Links will tend to expire, so seize the day. For an archive of Zorn's latest Tribune columns click here. An explanation of the title of this blog is here. If you have other questions, suggestions or comments, send e-mail to ericzorn at gmail.com.
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Contributing editor Jessica Reynolds is a 2012 graduate of Loyola University Chicago and is the coordinator of the Tribune's editorial board. She can be reached at jreynolds at tribune.com.