Pac-12 teams have only themselves to lose to now

Cal coach Mike Mongomery says, {lsquo}Obviously, the conference tournament winner goes (to the NCAA Tournament), but after that, I think all bets are off.' Montgomery was referring to the Pac-12's dismal showing so far. MARCIO JOSE SANCHEZ, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Palo Alto – Much like the Republican Party, the Pac-12 basketball race enters the weekend in search of a frontrunner with staying power.

UCLA?

The Bruins were the preseason favorite to win a 31st conference title and then promptly opened the season with home losses to Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee State.

Defending conference champion Arizona?

So far the Wildcats' signature victory is against 7-6 Clemson.

Cal?

The not so Golden Bears lost to then No. 21 Missouri, 92-53.

"Every time you start to identify a team, it seems like they stumble, so then you're not really sure," Cal coach Mike Montgomery said in a teleconference last week.

All of which has the Pac-12 heading into conference play this weekend polling worse than Jon Huntsman. In fact, the conference's numbers are so weak that Pac-12 is facing the very real possibility that for the first time since 1974 the conference could only receive one NCAA Tournament bid.

"With the games the league has lost it's put a lot of pressure on, I think, everybody in the league because when everybody was winning and everybody was ranked, you're saying, 'Man, we could finish in fifth and get in and that's great,'" Montgomery said. "It's not that way right now. We've made our bed, and now teams are going to have to finish up very strong to have a chance, I think. Obviously, the conference tournament winner goes (to the NCAA Tournament), but after that, I think all bets are off."

So how bad is the Pac-12?

The conference hasn't had a team in The AP Top 25 in four weeks. It is the nation's No. 8 conference in this week's Sagarin ratings, behind the Missouri Valley, which is an improvement from a week ago when it also ranked behind the Atlantic 10. The Pac-12 is 0-12 against the Top 24 and a combined 10-18 against the ACC, Big East, Big Ten and Big 12. It also is 3-11 against the Mountain West and winless against Metro Atlantic, the Missouri Valley and Big South.

But perhaps the league's biggest disappointment has been UCLA. The Bruins stumbled to a 2-5 start against the backdrop of all-conference forward Reeves Nelson's disruptive behavior on and off the court. UCLA has won five in a row since Coach Ben Howland dismissed Nelson on Dec. 9.

" Yet while Howland has begun recent postgame new conferences by saying "(fill in the blank) is a really good team," the Bruins should not put too much stock into the current winning streak. The computers certainly haven't. UCLA is No. 122 in the current Sagarin ratings, sandwiched between Charleston Southern and Norfolk State. The Bruins' past five victories have come against teams that are a combined 18-37 and only one (No. 115 Richmond) rank above 145 in the Sagarin ratings.

There is, however, some good news for the Bruins and the rest of the Pac-12. With conference play beginning there are no more games against the Metro Atlantic.

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