“… Slowing population growth suggests that we will have a short-lived housing boom in which starts hit the 1.3–1.4 million level, followed by a period of contraction until starts reach the level of long-run demand. We estimate this to be about 1.0 million units in the medium term. Housing will likely contribute to GDP growth in 2017–18 — particularly if economic policy creates a boom — but subtract from GDP growth by 2019 as the pent-up demand dissipates. In the long run, the slowing population suggests that housing will not be a growth sector (although specific segments, such as housing for elderly residents, might well be very strong),” says Dr. Daniel Bachman, Senior Manager, and Dr. Rumki Majumdar, Manager and Economist, Deloitte.