"The End Game: 2012 And 2013 Will Usher In The End" - The Scariest Presentation Ever?

If Raoul Pal was some doomsday spouting windbag, writing in all caps, arbitrarily pasting together disparate charts to create 200 page slideshows, it would be easy to ignore him. He isn't. The founder of Global Macro Investor "previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe... Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes." It is his writing we are concerned about, and specifically his latest presentation, which is, for lack of a better word, the most disturbing and scary forecast of the future of the world we have ever seen....

And we see a lot of those.

Consider this:

We are here...

We don’t know exactly what is to come, but we can all join the very few dots from where we are now, to the collapse of the first major bank…

With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.

There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.

The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…

Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations

From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.

And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?

And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?

That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.

It is the big RESET.

It continues:

Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).

The whole bond market will be dead.

Short selling on bonds - banned

Short selling stocks – banned

CDS – banned

Short futures – banned

Put options – banned

All that is left is the Dollar and Gold

It only gets better. We use the term loosely:

We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.

Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.

After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges

And the punchline

From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will usher in the end.

I am totally down for "hyper-localism"! I have been thinking for some time now that it is the only way for humanity to survive. Monopoly/centralization of govts, finance, and all of life is simply a BLACK HOLE waiting to suck the entire planet in.

I am preparing for my hyper-localism. I am thankful that my family has working farmland...and guns to try and protect it.

Will get very messy, though. Time to put on our "westward-ho" outfits and circle up the conistogas!

The only TRUE reality is in what you can see, touch, feel, and hear close to you. Make that your reality and your bulwark!

a massive capacity destruction event provides the cover for debt write offs, global one currency, eugenics and the final consolidation of wealth and dominion over the world by the .01%ers.that is the ultimate solution.

the unintended consequence will be a thousand years of peace among humans on earth because there will only be a half dozen left. that will be the real end of history.

" ... The markets are at the frankly terrifying point. The markets are at the frankly terrifying point of realising that LTRO, EFSF, QE etc are of realising that LTRO, EFSF, QE etc are not going to prevent this collapse. ... "

Yeah, but ... TIME's Man-of-the-Year in 2009 said we're like, you know ... all saved and stuff now?

Yeah but if you look closely the rabbit in the hat is a toy stuffed animal made in China. They haven't negated the seriousness of any of these charts. Similar to an 80 year old man they rip open his rib cage and put in a new heart. He's fine today but he'll be a POS tommorow.

Sad thing is we're all going to get fucked because our worthless coward leaders are only worried about themselves. Things could've been done, but now the damage is done. Sorry, but the charts clearly show the future. We're all entirely fucked beyond comprehension.

Even the select few that own gold are fucked unless you're in a heavily armed compound. Really? You have gold and you're surrounded by a million people that don't? Good luck with that.

Lesson in technical analysis: The last 4 charts are what's called an M/a pattern. They have a high % of playing out to the downside. The Feds hire the best technicians, they're well aware of it. Problem is it probably won't/can't be avoided. Yep.......total fucking flush coming. There will be bounces along the way that will catch all the stupid fuck citizens off guard as they will be used for such bullshit as "see we told you so" etc lol by our wonderful braindead shiteating politicians that deserve nothing less than decapitation.

Probably because the majority of people are not self-sufficient in any way but rather live their lives only because of their huge debts. If this cost-optimized just-in-time infrastructure with minimal inventories somehow collapses because of the instable finances, you can expect a zombie apocalypse in the most parts of the "civilized" world.

It's not easy to tell whether what comes afterwards will necessarily be better. TPTB might just use it as a welcome opportunity to shape a new world according to their agenda. People have willfully given up their rights to a fascist state in times of perceived crisis more than once. The common person wouldn't even know what else to do.

"The Matrix (Collaboration of governments with business & banking interests) is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around - what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still part of that system, and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand - most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inert, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it."

It will not be the end of the world, this has already happened many many times, Argentina , Mexico, Zimbabwe and many other third world nations........................................ except this will be a global event........developed nations have no clue what it's like as they have not lived it, ............................. what is for sure is there will be a lot of money changing hands, redistribution of wealth, generally poor people will become poorer, midle class people will become poor, some rich people will become poor or middle class and some elite groups will become wealthier.....some smart minorities will do better..... (you want to be one of them!!)

Inflation will be around, shortages will be the rule of the day for many items, hunger will be more pervasive, crime will increase, many governments will fall and some wars will get triggered, but generally humanity will still be around, the main difference is it will happen on a global scale...........

If there is any Mexicans , Argentinians or otherwise people from countries that have lived this before in recent imes (post 1960's), I would like your feedback.......they are still around after a lot of suffering but that's what's coming!!!!

Read " Surviving the Economic Collapse by Fernando "ferfal" Aguirre who went through the 2001 economic collapse in Argentina 2001. Some one here on ZH recommended it (sorry I forgot who). Absolutely the best book Ive read on the subject. Very practical and down to earth info.

Debt is Money, Spending is Savings, and War is Peace. Leveraged like there is no tomorrow, untill all nation states all collapse at the feet of those biggie captial holders, such RothFellors. Long live the King!

The sad truth is that the "end" is nowhere in sight folks. The fed can print longer than you can remain sane, for lack of a better description. Let's face it, you and I both know the fed can increase their balance sheet another 3X...and probably everything will seem "normal".

You have to be flexible and understand that the problem and attempted solutions are much, much larger than your mind can fathom. All I know is that first comes deflation. We're in the throws of that right now...and later comes inflation and no, not hyperinflation. For a good read and description of how we got here and how this unfolds I suggest "End Game" by John Mauldin. There is light at the end of the tunnel and no, it's not a train.

Oh, I disagree. Other countries are not going to continue tolerating our devaluing of the currency indefinitely. China is already ticked off at all the QE. Oh, and where are you seeing deflation? There is so much liquidity sloshing around and it is showing up in pricing. I don't see deflation right now at all.

Disagree wholeheartedly. The Fed prints and the world eats shit. Either we have a collapse or run away infation and then collapse. if the fed could piss all of our problems away by printing it would have been done with a massive dose right from the start. We have edged ourselves to the edge of the cliff.

Maybe because I don't spend my day chasing money (not to offend anyone here), but I welcome a RESET.

What counts as "success" can only have fertile ground with a reset at this point for millions of us who are otherwise unnaturally constrained by debt and specifically the lack of access to credit. Money matters, but only to the extent we decide as a society that it does.

How we define, finally, the utility of money, will be crucial to the level of our success (read happiness) going forward.

Bring It and may the odds be ever in our favour. Fuck the current owners and their definition of money.

I'm with you, YQ. And perhaps in the process I'll be able to recoup some of my losses playing in a game where the Fed is secretly on the other side of all the trades, not letting the market itself slip too far down the rabbithole in a single day and always with the hand on the switch to juice things up a bit about 1/2 hour before the close.

With the reverse splits even breaking even is a challenge, I'll admit.

I really personally could give a shit if Goldman Sucks, Chase, Citi and all the rest go away for good. And they all will at the 1st hint of "mark to market" when the money's all gone.

I hope you recoup better than some of your losses, for what its worth. And I truly respect the talents it must take to navigate a single day of trading. We will all see eachother on the other side of this. World is Turn'n and with the luck WE can make of it, for hte better.

Lehman almost started the dominos rolling right here in the good ol USSA. You wonder why they had to pass TARP to the tune of 700 Billion in less then 48 hours? The big banks were going down, their derivative PONZI was about to implode and take the dollar with it. Within 48 hours we started to spackle and paint the Derivative hole to cover it up for nobody to see. Then a few months later they rolled out the stimulus plan, another 900 Billion. Then we got HAMP, QE1,QE2, ZIRP,OPERATION TWIST, CASH FOR CLUNKERS, CASH FOR REFRIGERATORS, CASH FOR EVERYBODY! Well my friends I hate to tell you but using fuzzy math and off balance BS from Banks via the FED they managed to hoodwink most people into believing that the crisis was over and we were on our way to recovery. In the process of trying to keep the derivative ponzi from imploding they have burned through roughly 10 TRILLION, 10 TRILLION we will never see again. Now comes the crash of 2012, the money is gone and they have simply run out of paint and the hole is back. This time however it won't be the USA that starts the crash, It will be the EU Zone. Big difference now because the fingers will be pointed in a different direction and the almighty Dollar will be considered a safe zone, not the real culprit that actually took the entire system down to begin with...

But it did provide 4 years to get ready for the final collapse. Continue to stack, bought my place out of the city, much better armed, nice ammo stash, etc. I am far better prepared than I was in 2008.

The moment we have all been waiting for is at hands folks. This is it. It wont be today or tomorrow but its right around the corner. Finalize preparations. Buy a face mask. The zombies are coming to eat it off.

But the world works fine - we can make enough food for all etc etc, the problem discussed here is debt/derivatives, a bunch of numbers in cyberspace.... why the fuck cant that just go away and let the 6 billion folks who want to work get on with working and creating value? If there are 6 billion humans ready and willing to work and co-operate how can rich peoples badly placed bets prevent that?

Once the SHTF, the energy crisis will vanish for quite sometime as the depression will ensure energy demand will go down quite significantly, as an example even with China growing at 8%/year since 2008, their electricity compsumption is tracking down.... wait till this thing collapses worldwide.......................you won't be able to even fix your car due to parts shortages...........

Better get used to living in a local micro economy, get out of big cities with no public transit......

Most people won't even be able to afford a car and the associated expenses that go with it.....

The fractional reserve banking system has been growing in an official national capacity since the 17th century. It existed for centuries before that, before even the Medici in the 13th century. In fact there are some reasons to believe it goes back millennia. During all of that time, gold was money.

The operative word being "growing". It inevitably leads to a crisis for the debtors and at each step it has grown larger to overcome the instability. From a starting point today of many national currencies based on fractional reserve banking the next step is regional or continental currencies (like the Euro) and finally, a single world wide currency based on fractional reserve banking.

I hope this guy can look in the mirror and be honest with himself as to who is to blame, if only in part, for where he thinks we are in this mess. Then again, an ex-banker writing from his coastal Spanish villa... Your soul is already damned anyway, Pal.

If you were able to quantify the number and magnitude of promises in previous generations prior to a massive default on those promises, it'd probably look a lot like the current derivatives market.

Not that I think the system can or should be saved, but the IRS and FX Swap markets are probably the only things keeping this from melting down completely right now. I'd rather that the Fed use the major banks to underwrite IRS and FX swaps that prevent systemic collapse than actually printing the money to move the markets that the dervatives are mirroring. It's a little bit of tail wagging the dog and it's unsustainable. But there is probably a hope that the underlying exposure can be mitigated before people on the other side of the trade start calling in their promises.

Which would you rather have? The Fed printing money to push down the dollar or the Fed using JPM to underwrite Dollar swaps that are effectively shorts? Or the Fed printing money to buy every bond on the planet or underwriting the IRS that makes someone believe they're "hedged" against a rise in interest rates?

I've been saying we need a RESET since 2008; I guess the smart money is now agreeing. In any event, I think we'll see more posts like this one and Biderman's today. I haven't checked into Max Keiser yet, but he has to be bouncing off the walls. Poor Stacy.

There is just seemingly too many ducks in a row amidst everything from cryptic proclamations by the Rockefeller Foundation to movie trailers to architectural symbolism that could result in something really nasty happening in London this Summer.

Thats pretty much how I see it playing out as well. There is no other outcome at this point besides a big reset. Political parties are no longer capable of fixing the mounting problems. Fixing debt with more debt will not work and they will not change that path even in the face of total meltdown.

If thats the case, they are simply far to arrogant that they can personally avoid the coming meltdown that they are creating. I honestly believe there are very few in positions of true leadership that are capable of truly understanding whats in this document.

I always say, why aren't you taught about money in school? Something you'll use your entire life.. why isn't the history of money, the fractional reserve system and definition of what money is taught? Seems like its an awfully important topic to just skip except for one class about how to balance a check book.

Bingo!!! We have a winner. One of the 2 primary tools of control is ignorance, it allows the powers that be to paint a false reality with the 24/7 television/immersion propaganda system.

If you understood history and knew why the world is the way it is, you wouldn't beleive the bullshit on television and you wouldn't be wasting your hours immersed in empty electronic dreams and manipulation.

every hour spent watching tv is an hour of your life stolen. When you die, will you say to yourself, "I wish I would of watched more TV." ?

Run away from the puppetmasters. Understand the history of money and the present becomes little more than lies and illusions. Find the truth among the bullshit and hold onto it, because that is all that will be left when the bullshit vaporizes.

Bankruptcy and Prison will solve all this BS. The Sheeple will want to see some Banksters swing. I can live with that. If the legal system works, we will all live to enjoy another day. All the Debt is illegal. Wipe the hard drive at the BIS and we are all free. Not even a shot fired this time. SO SIMPLE!

There is a positive side to it: it gives society a chance to learn and evolve.

The central planners try to hide society's unsustainable behavior by burying the consequences with unlimited funds, legal support and media acceptance. It takes away the possibility for everyone to get hurt, notice what happened, and rethink the way they spend their money and plan their life.

It's sad that it couldn't have happened sooner, with less pain, but it has to happen if you want any real change of behavior. Everything else are just empty words by people who claim they have the solution to it all.

The central planners try to hide society's unsustainable behavior by burying the consequences with unlimited funds, legal support and media acceptance. It takes away the possibility for everyone to get hurt, notice what happened, and rethink the way they spend their money and plan their life.

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What is good with US citizen hijacking of humanity, that is they can end with that kind of stories.

Bro, it's not just US citizens. People here in Europe and everywhere else partake in this just as much as US citizens do. They are supporting this illusory game with their paychecks and with their life savings. They are not considering any ethics, they just expect the money to work for them -- no matter how and what the consequences.

The only thing people really vote with is their fucking money and they are happy to give it to corporations that employ child slaves in third world countries to make electronics for their iGadgets so they can post more self-important bullshit on their FaceBook, to corporations supplying the government with military equipment and then pushing for war, to corporations engaging in deliberate animal torture to optimize their costs, to media corporations engaging in censorship, to the oil and coal industry... I think you get the point.

The fraction of people willing to pay more, but knowing that the money is invested into things that will improve their offspring's future world, is not the majority... at all. It's a disgrace when considering what some of our ancestors both in Europe and the US have given up just in order for the future world to have a life in freedom and peace. People's ethics nowadays honestly are comparable to what you find in Brave New World and I find that scary, even disgusting.

Any you really should get over that idea that there's only a select few who are the scapegoat and that wiping them off the map will instantly solve everything. It's obvious, that this is not the case.

Lol, and Soc Gen was saying that the London RE bubble was the safest HAVEN for Oligarchy money. Nowhere to run nowhere to hide ill gotten gains. Yes the one square mile will have some sleepless nights as the Olympics unfurl their midsummer night's dream of 2012. Imagine Cameron now singing....Please, please, please don't do THIS to MEEEEE! Eurozone, just hang in there and forget all the speculation WE have unleashed to bring you down. 'Cos what we started, we DON'T want to see finished, its our hides that we have nailed to the London Eye. Oh, the pain of seeing Euro melt away! Ah, Out out, damned spot!

'cassandra's are lonesome characters - how quickly,... they, are forsaken'd on a whiff of roses, spun by machiavellian scents, in a garden of thorns, shrouded only in the mist of philosopher`stones -- as the nite turns morrow - their latent, and cursive predictions -an epiphany of goodwill - knowing all to well, brings about castigation, denial and disdain, all for prophetsizing truth in a viper's den where all god's children have indulged in unremorseful greed - the ultimate sin?'

Face it. US and Europe numbers are stagnant, declining. Both ECB and Fed are propping up economies with low rates/monetary policy. No consesus on budget cuts, just print money. Tha LAST ACT OF DESPERATION!

Lets see he was a hedgefund trader buying and selling derivatives. How in hell did we end up with 700 trillion in deratives. All the banksters and hedge funds brought it upon themselves. I meant to say us.

Don't do tinfoil hats. ALCOA got absorbed into the Morgan empire and then into the Rocks's nest. Reynold's wrap is.....well it's Reynolds and they are illuminati too. A true conspiracy nut wraps his head in organic honey. And thats why they killed all the bee's.

Ironic isn't it? While militaries prepare. terrorists hunted down, weapons of mass destruction sought, manufactured, traded and used to threaten, the thing that will bring modern civilization to its knees is paper. An innocuous. piece of paper with terms no one understands including the two sides signing it, which is a called a derivative and is what terrorizes as there are too many of them floating around.

Why don't we save the world and outlaw them along with deficit spending by governments right now? Let both sides of the contract keep what they have and walk away. Governments can cut back big time without affecting the services which are really important, We really don't need anymore nukes and such do we?

Simple solution for one big headache and let the world deal with what is left over.

Any solution presupposes that someone has political power that actually wants to fix things, and they dont really care what the consequences are for the current controllers.

For me, this should be an opportunity to move from democracy to a free society where the state monopoly on law and taxation are broken.

A free society should also recognise the following issues which are currently permissible, but which should be excised from a healthy society.

Usury, rent taking, taxation and fractional reserve fraud.

Lending money at interest or renting real estate creates a problem, firstly it is immoral to make gain without producing, and renting money and land concentrates wealth and leads inevitably to oligarchs, rulers and want to be kings. While renting out capital goods such as houses and apartments - is fine, because they require labor to produce and depreciate.

Fractional reserve banking is simply fraud, along with the fiat central banking system that supports it, taxation is purely theft - regardless of what platitudes are used to justify it (for the children .. barf).

Towers was asked, “Will you tell me why a government with power to create money, should give that power away to a private monopoly, and then borrow that which parliament can create itself, back at interest, to the point of national bankruptcy?” He replied, “If Parliament wants to change the form of operating the banking system, then certainly that is within the power of Parliament.”

Quite, and then the Republic of my forbears said: come and get if you want it. Back off or bleed. We give our money, our souls, our everything to defeat your central bank, your monarchy, your elitist shameful crookery.

New England is as it ever was. It's quiet ways and neighbourly manner should never be mistaken for acquiescence to a brutal authority.

Here is the Truth of the Matter!! I was at two different gun stores in the last 3 days and was told the same thing. Do not expect anymore ammo to be coming from the distributors especially 223cal. and 40cal. They said what you see is what we have and will not be getting anymore. Told a couple of friends this and they made calls and was getting same story...No MORE AMMO will be shipped from suppliers. The SHIT is about to HIT THE FAN. Two words to live by in the coming days FOOD & AMMO!