Thursday, December 1, 2011

Golden Globes Preview

With the Golden Globe nominations coming up in a couple of weeks, it seems appropriate to take a stab at some nomination predictions, as well as make fun of how ridiculous and predictable it is. The Globes love star power and do not care about reviews. If Meryl Streep, Robert Downey Jr., Julia Roberts, Tom Hanks, Will Smith, etc. are in a movie or Clint Eastwood, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg, etc. direct a movie, then that is normally enough for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to give it massive Globes love. So, I will predict the categories (even the TV ones for fun), and then I will make a lineup of what the HFPA would do if they would indulge themselves in their shameless star power-hungry voting. For most of these, I will maintain some sense of legitimacy, though. I mean, if they had their choice, Al Pacino would be nominated for Jack and Jill, so I will keep it at least somewhat tame. Here it goes with the TV stuff, followed by most of the film categories:

(winners in Italics)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

Jane Lynch – Glee

Margo Martindale – Justified

Sofia Vergara – Modern Family

Betty White – Hot in Cleveland

Evan Rachel Wood – Mildred Pierce

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

Ty Burrell – Modern Family

Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones

Paul Giamatti – Too Big to Fail

Guy Pearce – Mildred Pierce

Edward James Olmos – Dexter

BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

Taraji P. Henson – Taken From Me: The Tiffany Rubin Story

Katie Holmes – The Kennedys

Elizabeth McGovern – Downton Abbey

Rachel Weisz – Page Eight

Kate Winslet – Mildred Pierce

BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

Idris Elba – Luther

Ethan Hawke – Moby Dick

William Hurt – Moby Dick

Greg Kinnear – The Kennedys

Barry Pepper – The Kennedys

BEST MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE

Downton Abbey

The Kennedys

Mildred Pierce

Page Eight

Too Big to Fail

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

Christina Applegate – Up All Night

Zooey Deschanel – New Girl

Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie

Tina Fey – 30 Rock

Melissa McCarthy – Mike & Molly

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock

Steve Carell – The Office

Ashton Kutcher – Two and a Half Men

Matt LeBlanc – Episodes

Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

30 Rock

The Big Bang Theory

Glee

Modern Family

New Girl

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

Maria Bello – Prime Suspect

Claire Danes – Homeland

Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife

Anna Paquin – True Blood

Katey Sagal – Sons of Anarchy

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

Steve Buscemi – Boardwalk Empire

Bryan Cranston – Breaking Bad

Michael C. Hall – Dexter

Sean Bean – Game of Thrones

Timothy Olyphant – Justified

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

Boardwalk Empire

Dexter

Game of Thrones

The Good Wife

The Killing

BEST ANIMATED FILM

The Adventures of Tintin

Cars 2

Puss in Boots

Rango

Winnie the Pooh

Explanation: This one just comes down to the fact that Johnny Depp is the voice of one of the characters. Rango takes this in a route.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

Bridesmaids

The Descendants

The Ides of March

Midnight in Paris

Tinker, Tailor Soldier Spy

Explanation: This is always difficult because there is always a screwdriver thrown in there, like It’s Complicated in 2009. This is as close as I could come, yet I still had to leave out Moneyball, which took the New York Film Critics award and most of the likely Best Picture nominees.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

Martin Scorsese – Hugo

Steven Spielberg – War Horse

Explanation: The Globes love their big name directors, and that is reflected here. This is a very safe, unexciting list, actually.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris

Clint Eastwood – J. Edgar

Angelina Jolie – In the Land of Blood and Honey

Martin Scorsese – Hugo

Steven Spielberg – War Horse

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

Sandra Bullock – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Marion Cotillard – Midnight in Paris

Jessica Chastain – The Help

Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids

Octavia Spencer – The Help

Explanation: The Globes love Sandra Bullock and fluff box office hits like The Help. Since McCarthy is probably winning her TV category, I doubt she will take this too.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Sandra Bullock – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Scarlett Johnansson – We Bought a Zoo

Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids

Gwyneth Paltrow – Contagion

Natalie Portman – Your Highness

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn

Albert Brooks – Drive

Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life

Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method

Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Explanation: The HFPA cannot get enough of Hollywood’s Golden Couple, so Pitt is almost a shoo-in here. They also like their veteran and European actors. I am really confident in this group.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Sasha Baron Cohen – Hugo

George Clooney – The Ides of March

Tom Hanks – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Jonah Hill – Moneyball

Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

Cameron Diaz – Bad Teacher

Julianne Moore – Crazy Stupid Love

Kirsten Wiig – Bridesmaids

Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

Kate Winslet – Carnage

Explanation: There is a lot of star power in this group, and I kept it somewhat realistic. I have a feeling that someone from The Artist will sneak in or maybe something random like Amy Adams for The Muppets, but I just do not know who to take out.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Cameron Diaz – Bad Teacher

Jodie Foster – Carnage

Julia Roberts – Larry Crowne

Kristen Wiig – Bridesmaids

Kate Winslet – Carnage

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

Matt Damon – We Bought a Zoo

Johnny Depp – The Rum Diary

Jean Dujardin – The Artist

Tom Hanks – Larry Crowne

Owen Wilson – Midnight in Paris

Explanation: This is one of the categories where the Globes get really stupid. This is a fairly strong mix of their ridiculousness and realistic predictions. I feel like Wilson, Dujardin, and Damon are locks for this category, and the other two could be any mix of superstar actors.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Jim Carrey – Mr. Popper’s Penguins

Johnny Depp – Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Johnny Depp – The Rum Diary

Johnny Depp – Rango

Robert Downey Jr. – Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Tom Hanks – Larry Crowne

BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

The Artist

Bridesmaids

Carnage

Midnight in Paris

The Muppets

Explanation: For this category, the Globes are most unpredictable. Last year, it included The Tourist, Red, and Burlesque. Yeah, this is just a wild guess.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Bridesmaids

Glee: The 3D Concert Movie

The Hangover: Part II

Larry Crowne

New Year’s Eve

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis – The Help

Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Emma Stone – The Help

Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Explanation: Streep is winning, obviously. The others are just fillers. None of them can take it from her.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Anne Hathaway – One Day

Zana Marjanovic – In the Land of Blood and Honey

Kristen Stewart – The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1

Emma Stone – The Help

Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Antonio Banderas – The Skin I Live In

George Clooney – The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar

Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Brad Pitt – Moneyball

Explanation: Four of these choices are obvious. Banderas is really just a stab in the dark. They usually love Almodovar movies, and Banderas seems to have the international star power that they usually like to incorporate into theirlineups. It’s a pretty solid group nonetheless.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

George Clooney – The Descendants

Daniel Craig – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar

Brad Pitt – Moneyball

Justin Timberlake – In Time

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

A Dangerous Method

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The Help

Hugo

War Horse

Explanation: This is a tough category this year. There are movies made by the most popular directors in the world. There are films like The Help that made unbelievable amounts of money at the box office, something that the Globes love to see. Then there is A Dangerous Method, which is a Cronenberg movie, whose last two films inexplicably got nominated in this category after almost no precursors. This is as close as I can come to figuring this out.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Hugo

The Ides of March

In the Land of Blood and Honey

J. Edgar

War Horse

So, what do you think? Am I missing any other big name actor that the HFPA loves? Let me know what you think or post your own in the comments.