Notebook

Builders Remain Optimistic in Uncertain Economy
The U.S. economy contracted slightly
in the third quarter of last year, and
by the time you read these words, it’s all
but certain that the fourth-quarter figures
will show a further decline. As
economists define the term, that means
the economy will officially slip into
recession for the first time since 1991.
How bad will it get, and how will it
affect builders?
End of an era. The current downturn
marks the end of the single longest
period of economic expansion in postwar
history. But for now, most economic
forecasters — including NAHB
economist David Seiders — predict that
the slump will be relatively mild and
short-lived.
If the economists are right,