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Tiger Woods

Tiger Woods is the number one ranked golfer in the world. He is also the highest-paid athlete in the world, at $65 million a year. And yet, neither of those two things really matter to him.

As a boy, Woods famously had a poster of Jack Nicklaus in his room. It served as a reminder of his goal in his golf career: To top Nicklaus’s record of 18 major championship wins. Much is made of the media attention given to Woods at the majors. Many fans think it is overkill. But his pursuit of Nicklaus’s mark is one of the most intriguing storylines in sports, and will remain so until he either breaks the record or retires from competitive golf having fallen short.

Woods—who won his 14th major at the 2008 U.S. Open—appeared to be on track to achieve his goal until 2009. That year will be the pivotal one when, 20 years from now, some biographer writes the definitive account of Woods’ life and golfing career. It was the day after Thanksgiving of that year when Woods had his infamous car wreck near his home, and his infidelity scandal broke open. Never before had a more popular and successful athlete been subjected to the ensuing tabloid scrutiny and public embarrassment. Subsequent leg injuries also took their toll.

But that year had another defining moment for Woods, one that may go down as something more significant in his golfing career. In the PGA Championship that August, Woods was the leader after 54 holes, by two strokes. He ended up losing to Y.E. Yang by three strokes, shooting a 3-over 75. It marked the first time that Woods—perhaps the best closer the sport has ever witnessed—failed to win a major after having the 54-hole lead.

Woods will turn 38 at the end of this year. He has, in many ways, bounced back from that troubling stretch in 2010 and 2011, when his world ranking plummeted to 58. After losing sponsors , , and in 2010, he has regrouped somewhat, adding NetJets and Rolex, and hanging on to Nike. He has won four PGA Tour events this year. As mentioned, he has regained the number one ranking in the world. But he has now gone five years since his last major win. Though he has been in contention in the early rounds in a handful of majors since then, he has faltered badly on the weekends and, at times, has been relegated to finishing his Sunday major rounds hours before the leaders—and eventual winners—even make the turn.

Woods is still ahead of Nicklaus’s major-winning pace. Nicklaus won his 15th major—the British Open—in 1978 when he was 38. That means Woods has two more chances to stay ahead of Nicklaus’s pace. Nicklaus won his 16th and 17th majors in 1980, at age 40, taking both the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship. Then he famously tacked on his 18th major victory at age 46 at the 1986 Masters.

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Woods’s playing prime will go from now until he is 42 (which happens to be the age of Ernie Els when he won the British Open last year). Barring injury or other unforeseen circumstances, that leaves him with 22 more majors to play. Winning five of those would be a tall task. It would equal the career major wins of Byron Nelson and Seve Ballesteros. It would be one more major win than Phil Mickelson has had in his career.

The remaining two majors this year may not set up well for Woods. The British Open is at Muirfield, where he tied for 28th back in 2002. The PGA Championship is at Oak Hill, where he struggled to a tie for 39th in 2003. But, taking a look ahead at the future sites of the four major championships, the task for Woods still seems doable. He seems to play well on the courses where he has had previous success. Here’s the breakdown of future major sites: