We’re REALLY growing

David Taylor

Published 4:00 pm, Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Photo: Staff Photo By Alan Warren

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Rush hour traffic moves along the I-10 feeder road near Gessner Road and Beltway 8. That stretch of I-10 is 26 lanes across and is the widest highway in Texas. Every morning and afternoon, the freeway is bumper to bumper. less

Rush hour traffic moves along the I-10 feeder road near Gessner Road and Beltway 8. That stretch of I-10 is 26 lanes across and is the widest highway in Texas. Every morning and afternoon, the freeway is bumper ... more

Photo: Staff Photo By Alan Warren

We’re REALLY growing

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The latest census numbers from 2013 demonstrate what most have felt and officials have predicted — the community, county and state is growing exponentially.

Two Texas metro areas — Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land and Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington — were the only ones in the country to add more than 100,000 residents over the 2013-2014 period. Within the Houston metro area, Harris County alone gained almost 89,000 people, more than any other county in the nation. The Lone Star State also had four metro areas among the nation’s 20 fastest growing by rate of change (percent): Austin-Round Rock (third), Odessa (fourth), Midland (ninth) and Houston (11th).

It’s all about jobs

There are multiple reasons homes across the nation are hanging out a ’Gone To Texas’ sign in their front window, but none more important than jobs.

While the rest of the country remains punch drunk from the lingering effects of the recession, the Red state boasts a jobless rate significantly lower than others in the country and continues to provide jobs for those making the exodus to the state.

In 2013, then Gov. Rick Perry said the Lone Star State was adding approximately 1,000 new people to the population rolls, not including in-state births or subtracting deaths. The economy remains one of the nation’s strongest. The Texas Workforce Commission’s most recent report said Texas’ seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent in March 2015, down from 4.3 percent in February. The state has not seen a rate this low since July 2007 and Texas continues to trend below the national average of 5.5 percent.

Texas’ total nonfarm seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 25,400 jobs in March’s preliminary estimate. This comes on the heels of an impressive string of 53 straight months of job growth for the state. Over the year, the state has added 327,500 jobs for an overall growth rate of 2.9 percent, outpacing the national growth rate of 2.3 percent.

It’s no surprise to Fort Bend County Judge Bob Hebert.

“The extraordinary growth in Fort Bend County is not a new phenomenon. From a 1990 population of 220,000, we’ve grown to an estimated 700,000 as of year-end 2014,” the judge said.

That’s a staggering 381 percent growth over the past 25 years at an average of 19,000 new residents per year. The latest Census figures from 2013 confirm the ever-growing number at just over 19,000.

Like their neighbors to the east in Harris county, the county area is rapidly transitioning from a rural area to an urban component.

Judge Ed Emmett said that Harris County is unique in that in just a couple of years, more people will live in unincorporated Harris County than in the City of Houston.

Problems with growth

With the continual migration across the state’s borders comes a more perplexing issue for the state and county leaders — how to handle the influx of people.

County government has limited powers to provide a flexible response to urban issues as the constitution contemplates a rural focus for counties with municipalities handling the issues elated to urban growth.

“Legal and fiscal issues arising in the last 20 years have severely limited the ability on municipalities to annex growth areas within their jurisdictions,” Hebert lamented.

“The result in Fort Bend County is that over 65 percent (455,000-plus) of our population lives in unincorporated urban areas. These residents demand, and have a right to expect, municipal-type urban services,” he said.

The population shift seriously challenges county government to find the means to provide those services without access to income other than that generated by property taxes.

“We must constantly strive to find a balance between our residents’ need for service and our tax rate, all the while being mindful that our authority comes from the constitution and the legislature and we have limited ability to respond to an unforeseen issue without getting legislative approval, no matter how troublesome the issue might be,” Hebert said.

Emmett echoed the same thing.

“Property doesn’t go up until you build the roads,” he said.

Neither county can expect help from Austin and the legislature. The Texas Department of Transportation has its own set of woes to deal with including a tally of years where the state legislature grossly underfunded the agency.

Last year, voters approved Prop 1 money, but the judge said that much of those funds will go away if the oil and gas industry has a downturn.

“If we’re really going to maintain our growth, the legislature has got to step up and adequately fund transportation, even if it means a gasoline or registration fee increase. They have to find a way to pay for transportation improvements,” Emmett said.

The agency has also lost gas tax revenues with more efficient cars and less Texans driving on the roads. Registration fees haven’t been increased since September 1, 2011. All of those add up to a significant loss of revenue.

The PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE

Whether it’s in the north, south, east or west, no part of the county has remained untouched by the growth.

“County government in Texas historically has been reactive,” Hebert said.

“ A problem arises, a solution is found. Today high growth counties like Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Collin, Williamson and others must be proactive if they are to avoid being overwhelmed by growth.”

The judge said that by 2025 there is every probability that Fort Bend will have 1 million residents.

“We have to plan now to meet their needs. It takes years to add capacity to county roads or state highways. You have to find the money, do the environmental research, acquire right-of-way, design and then construct. Whether it’s in security, mobility, drainage or flood control, social services, judicial or records management services we must continue to look forward, plan and implement long-term solutions,” he said.

Since nothing gets built until the roads are there, most counties in the state will always be working behind their incoming resources.

“We’re still playing catchup in some areas today, but overall I think the pace of proactive government has increased significantly since 2000,” Hebert said.

The growth spurs retail market

With the arrival of 89,000 migrants to the county comes additional growth in the commercial retail business. In his 22nd Annual Retail Survey, Chairman & CEO Ed Wulfe projects 3.71 million square feet of new retail shopping center space will be built and opened in the greater Houston-Sugar Land-The Woodlands area this year alone. The increase, Wulfe says, represents an impressive 56 percent increase over 2014’s 2.37 million square feet.

According to the report, supermarkets will dominate new retail construction and represent 43 percent of 2015’s growth with 32 new stores planned. HEB will open seven, Kroger will open four plus expand two, Wal-mart will open four of their neighborhood market stores, Whole Foods and Sprouts will each add two, Fiesta and Trader Joe’s will each open one, and newcomer ALDI will add 11 of their smaller 18,000 square foot stores to the market.

Wulfe also says that because the majority of new retail space is either owned or leased by the individual stores, like many supermarkets, discount stores and power retailers, it is in their best interest to own and operate their stores, leaving only 15-20 percent of speculative space to be leased in the coming year.

In addition to the expanded supermarket space, Wal-mart will add one new 180,000 sq. ft. Superstore; Gallery Furniture is building a 165,000 sq. ft. store in Katy; a new Lowe’s Home Improvement Center is planned; five new theaters; three new Academy stores and two new Ross stores will open this year as well, Wulfe said.

“With this high activity of new retail growth, we project that higher retail occupancy rates will exceed a seldom achieved rate of 92 percent this year,” the CEO said.

The 3.71 million square feet is the largest since 2008 when the area saw a whopping 6.26 million square feet of retail space added.

The boom could continue as far as into 2020.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Next week this two-part series will address housing and education. This week focuses on transportation and retail.