In a note to clients sent this afternoon, Arbeter says the current rally is over and stocks are “vulnerable to a 3% to 5% pullback over the next four weeks or so.”

From Arbeter:

Some of the major indices have moved very close to some of our key technical targets, and at the same time, we’re seeing some frothy sentiment indicators as well as some very overbought price and market internals. Once a potential pullback runs its course, we look for new recovery highs for the market.

Through Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 is up 7.5% this year and has advanced 23% off the early-October lows. It’s been a face-ripping rally in a relatively short time frame, although the pace of the run-up has slowed in recent weeks.

The index hasn’t had a decline greater than 0.6% this year. Unless things change rapidly in the final trading hour (which is always a possibility) the streak is poised to end today as concerns about the status of Greece’s second bailout are worrying investors. The S&P 500 was recently down 0.9% at 1340.