After the children’s referendum… November 20, 2012

The children’s referendum was but a week or two ago and now it seems, given the discussions and debates – well, such as they were, to be almost ancient history so rapidly has the wheel turned to another not entirely unrelated issue, but still distinctive enough to supplant almost all else.

Here’s an interesting little fact from the SBP at the weekend. Niamh Connolly discussing the findings of an exit poll after the referendum notes that the strongest Yes vote was amongst FG supporters, followed closely by LP supporters. The figures were respectively 90 per cent and 74 per cent. By contrast 62 per cent of SF voters did not support the referendum with 41 per cent of FF supporters not doing so either.

What does it mean? Given the low turn out it would be a brave person who suggested this indicated greater support for the government parties amongst their base than hitherto thought. And yet it does appear to indicate that there is some stickiness there. Of course if the pool of available LP (and to a lesser degree FG voters) is evaporating then it could well be that those who voted were those who were most attached to their given party. It would be useful to see figures on the support levels overall for parties from those that voted i.e., break down the 100 per cent of those polled into party identifications.