Hugo Chávez's Russian Dalliance

By

Mary Anastasia O'Grady

Updated Sept. 15, 2008 12:01 a.m. ET

As two Russian Tu-160 bombers landed in Venezuela last week on a training mission, President Hugo Ch&aacute;vez took to his nation's airwaves to celebrate. It was the first time since the Cold War that military jets sent from Moscow touched down in the Western Hemisphere. "Yankee hegemony is finished," Mr. Ch&aacute;vez declared.

What the Venezuelan did not mention was the fact that, according to a State Department official, "the U.S. Air Force picked up the Russian aircraft just west of Norway and escorted them all the way to Venezuela."

That American top guns could toy with Russians sent to show solidarity with Venezuela is not surprising. Vladimir Putin has been trying to rebuild his military, but it is no match for U.S. might. Nor is it believable that Russia seriously expects to challenge the U.S. in the Caribbean with the flotilla it says that it is sending next month for joint exercises with Venezuela.

Yet 17 years after we thought the Cold War had ended, Russia is evoking memories of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis by playing war games with another would-be Latin strongman. It's Mr. Putin's way of making a face at President Bush for his proposed missile defense in Europe, and his resistance to Russia's latest efforts to restore its former empire by force.

What are Russian bombers doing in Venezuela? The Americas columnist Mary O'Grady lays it out for Kelsey Hubbard. (Sept. 15)

Mr. Ch&aacute;vez is only too happy to be used. He thinks he's getting something in return. His Bolivarian Revolution -- a full-court press designed to impose communism throughout Latin America -- is in trouble, and as its popularity has waned, so too have his options for restoring confidence in his leadership. Yet there is still the fail-safe practice of Yankee-baiting. In the spirit of Fidel Castro, Mr. Ch&aacute;vez seems to believe that if the foreign devil can be painted as an imminent threat to sovereignty, the nation might rally behind him. This idea, shared by Bolivian President Evo Morales, explains not only Russian military tourism in the Caribbean but also last week's expulsion of the U.S. ambassadors to Caracas and La Paz.

Mr. Ch&aacute;vez has troubles at home, and elsewhere in the region resistance to his Bolivarian Revolution is also rising. Last week it boiled over in Bolivia, where Mr. Morales, backed by Mr. Ch&aacute;vez, seeks to consolidate power through a Venezuelan-style rewrite of the constitution.

Governors and local populations in four of Bolivia's nine departments have said they will not accept ratification of the new constitution by popular referendum. They also have expressed a desire for increased autonomy from La Paz. But on Aug. 28, Mr. Morales signed a decree that put the referendum in motion anyway.

That ignited a firestorm, and in recent weeks road blocks and strikes designed to paralyze the country have provoked violence in the streets. Last week, eight people were killed in civilian clashes in the province of Pando.

It is true that Bolivia is witnessing a battle between regions for control of the nation's resources. But we are also watching a life-or-death struggle against the communist ideology that Mr. Morales -- also an admirer of Fidel -- wants to impose. He has admitted that Castro coached him on how to use the guise of democracy as a way of reaching his goal. Yet he hasn't been prepped to face resistance. His hard line has unified and emboldened his critics. Now he can no longer reach out to the governors without appearing weak.

Frustrated by these failures, Mr. Morales decided to blame the Yankees. On Sept. 11, he expelled U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg, claiming that the U.S. was supporting the dissident governors. No evidence was provided. Mr. Ch&aacute;vez followed suit the same day, expelling U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy from Caracas in solidarity with Mr. Morales and threatening to cut off oil supplies if the U.S. attacks Venezuela.

Clearly the objective for both presidents was to rally the hard-core base, but it is doubtful that it impressed anyone else. Bolivia remains a nightmare for Mr. Ch&aacute;vez and not only because a Morales defeat would damage his own imperial aspirations. A greater problem is that the opposition at the local level in Bolivia is made up of popular, democratically elected leaders who are viewed by their constituents as defenders of the people.

Back in Venezuela, Mr. Ch&aacute;vez's opposition has been relatively weak. But it might learn from Bolivian dissidents ways to mobilize a serious challenge to chavismo.

This is the scenario that Mr. Ch&aacute;vez faces ahead of the Nov. 23 gubernatorial elections in 23 states and the district of Caracas. With the economy in shambles, inflation hovering around 30% and the opposition beginning to unite, Venezuela's messiah is feeling some heat. It is not impossible, assuming fair elections (which is far from certain), for opposition candidates to win at least three important states and perhaps as many as six. For a man with dictatorial ambitions, this is anathema. Which is why the Uncle Sam boogeyman is being trotted out, the Russians were called in, and Washington's ambassadors have been sent packing.

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