Shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase in woody plant cover, is a major concern for livestock farming in southern Kalahari savannas. We developed a grid-based computer model simulating the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited encroaching shrub. In the absence of large herbivores, seeds of Grewia are largely deposited in the sub-canopy of Acacia erioloba. Cattle negate this dispersal limitation by browsing on the foliage of Grewia and dispersing seeds into the grassland matrix. In this study we first show that model predictions of Grewia cover dynamics are realistic by comparing model output with shrub cover estimates obtained from a time series of aerial photographs. Subsequently, we apply a realistic range of intensity of cattle-induced seed dispersal combined with potential precipitation and fire scenarios. Based on the simulation results we suggest that cattle may facilitate shrub encroachment of Grewia. The results show that the severity of shrub encroachment is governed by the intensity of seed dispersal. For a high seed dispersal intensity without fire (equivalent to a high stocking rate) the model predicts 56% shrub cover and 85% cell cover after 100 yr. With fire both recruitment and shrub cover are reduced, which may, under moderate intensities, prevent shrub encroachment. Climate change scenarios with two-fold higher frequencies of drought and wet years intensified shrub encroachment rates, although long-term mean of precipitation remained constant. As a management recommendation we suggest that shrub encroachment on rangelands may be counteracted by frequent fires and controlling cattle movements to areas with a high proportion of fruiting Grewia shrubs

In ecology much attention has been paid towards seed dispersal of fleshy-fruited plants, however, knowledge is lacking about the Iona-term demographic consequences of variation in dispersal distance and fruit removal rate, particularly given the natural variability of the environment the organism lives in. In this study we used a spatially explicit, two-level stochastic computer model to simulate population dynamics of a fleshy-fruited shrub living in the sub-canopy of solitary savanna trees. On the landscape level we implemented three realistic scenarios of savanna landscape dynamics for a period of 500 years with equal inter-annual mean of environmental variables. The first scenario is representative of a relatively constant environment with normal variability in precipitation, constant tree density and random tree recruitment pattern. The second and third scenarios represent positive auto-correlated, cyclic patterns with alternating phases of tree cover increase and decrease corresponding with favorable and unfavorable rain phases. Our simulation experiments show that when fruit removal rate is extremely low, population persistence is enhanced under relatively constant rain conditions, while alternating rain phases of the cyclic scenarios lead to a significant population decrease. This result confirms previous findings that periodically fluctuating environments may increase local extinction risk. However, when dispersal distance is a limiting factor (whilst removal rate was sufficiently high), tree clumps typically forming in wet phases of both cyclic scenarios compensated for the negative effect of low dispersal distances, while the constant scenario with random tree pattern and larger inter-tree distances resulted in a significant population decline. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

In semiarid savannas of Southern Africa current land use practices and climate change may lead to substantial changes of vegetation structure in the near future, however uncertainty remains about the potential consequences and the magnitude of change. In this paper we study the impact of climate change, cattle grazing, and wood cutting on shrub cover dynamics in savannas of the southern Kalahari. We use an established savanna ecosystem model to simulate landscape dynamics in terms of rainfall, fire and distribution of the dominant tree Acacia erioloba. We then incorporate these data into a spatial population model of the common, fleshy-fruited shrub Grewia flava and investigate shrub cover dynamics for a period of 100 years. Depending on the intensity of commercial wood cutting practices tree removal of A. erioloba led to a strong decline of the G. flava population, as shrub recruitment is concentrated in tree sub-canopies due to bird-mediated seed dispersal. Under climate change shrub cover slightly decreased with decreasing precipitation and was unchanged with increase in precipitation variability. Contrarily, grazing by cattle strongly increased shrub cover and facilitated shrub encroachment because of cattle-induced distribution of G. flava seeds into the matrix vegetation. Knowledge of the latter process is particularly important because shrub invasion is a major concern for conservation and savanna rangeland management as a result of its adverse effects on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity

In a selected literature survey we reviewed studies on the habitat heterogeneity-animal species diversity relationship and evaluated whether there are uncertainties and biases in its empirical support. We reviewed 85 publications for the period 1960-2003. We screened each publication for terms that were used to define habitat heterogeneity, the animal species group and ecosystem studied, the definition of the structural variable, the measurement of vegetation structure and the temporal and spatial scale of the study. The majority of studies found a positive correlation between habitat heterogeneity/diversity and animal species diversity. However, empirical support for this relationship is drastically biased towards studies of vertebrates and habitats under anthropogenic influence. In this paper we show that ecological effects of habitat heterogeneity may vary considerably between species groups depending on whether structural attributes are perceived as heterogeneity or fragmentation. Possible effects may also vary relative to the structural variable measured. Based upon this, we introduce a classification framework that may be used for across-studies comparisons. Moreover, the effect of habitat heterogeneity for one species group may differ in relation to the spatial scale. In several studies, however, different species groups are closely linked to 'keystone structures' that determine animal species diversity by their presence. Detecting crucial keystone structures of the vegetation has profound implications for nature conservation and biodiversity management.