Moving East, Rain For Thursday: Models, Radar Loops

Late this afternoon we see the next cold front is now moving slowly but surely to the east. The upper high along the east coast is breaking down and moving to the east as well so the door is finally opening to get rain in here for Thursday. The rain band is narrow and it runs from the central Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. Other than some spotty light rain or drizzle tonight that comes in from off the ocean, I expect steady to hold off until the bulk of the morning rush hour drive is over with though for places like Philadelphia and Scranton rains could certainly move in toward the latter half of the morning rush hour drive. For New York City and points east and nearby west, I’m thinking the evening rush hour will be a problem with rain and some patches of heavy rain moving through as well. Fronts that are fast movers usually don’t have time to produce a whole lot of rain. Slow movers are better as that gives you some time so I think there is a fair chance, assuming the moisture flow is the same as it is today, we should be able to grind out an inch or more of rain in most places. Some models have backed away from their original rainfall forecast amounts but I’m going to hold on to my original idea of 1″+ for most areas. I don’t think the flood potential from this is very high given the dry conditions we have been in for the last 6 months.

Depending on what time you pull up this post you should start to see rain advancing into the western areas of this geographic zone. Any light rain or drizzle from off the ocean may go undetected by radars along the coast given the low clouds tops that are usually associated with ocean low clouds and a southeast onshore flow. Some thunderstorms are also possible on Thursday though they should not be severe. However they could be strong enough to enhance rainfall in some places.

Rain should be moving out Thursday night with drier conditions to follow on Friday and the daytime Saturday looks dry as well. The next cold front brings in cold air and below normal temperatures Sunday into Monday. Some showers are possible Saturday night and some snow showers are possible on Sunday.