In the not-too-distant future, computers will replace books and magazines.
That's a statement I've heard dozens of times in the last ten years, but since
the advent of multimedia, I've heard it more often.

At COMPUTE, computers and paper are both important, and we're committed to
both technologies. We believe in the power of the personal computer to enrich
our lives, and our magazine is distributed on paper, the medium we feel is the
best choice.

To understand the computer-versus-paper question, it's necessary to look at
the PC's history. In the last ten years, the PC has instigated no less than
three revolutions, and in each, it has gone head-to-head with paper.

The first revolution was sparked by the birth of the personal computer itself.
These early machines were limited in power, but their potential was obvious.
Before the revolution was more than a few years old, we heard the cry of the
paperless office. Although computers unquestionably have the power to replace
paper documents in the workplace, they have not done so. In fact, PCs have
enabled us to produce more paper, and we have.

The initial shot of the second computer revolution was fired when the first
BBS went online. In a few years, personal computers became communications
devices. Networking, whether in the form of local area networks (LANs) or
commercial online services, soon reached more than 70 percent of the PC
community. In this second revolution, the PC's main competitor was another
paper-based system: mail. Although the PC may have reduced paper-based mail
for somebusinesses, personal computers, again, are actually creating more
paper mail. If you've been going to the mailbox for the last ten years,
compare the amount of junk mail you receive now with what you were getting in
1981.

In 1991, we've waged the first battles of computing's third, and most
dramatic, revolution: multimedia. Although multimedia PCs may look like their
predecessors, multimedia machines are radically different from previous
computers, in that they're bona fide delivery systems for information.
Because of this, they're more like paper. Will these newest PCs replace paper
where their ancestors have failed? Before we tackle that question, let's take
a look at what paper has to offer as an information delivery system.

First, paper has tremendous information density. A page of paper can hold
about 33 times as much information as a Super VGA screen. For example, an 800
x 600 VGA display sports a resolution of about 75 lines per inch, while an
average book or magazine comes closer to 2500 lines per inch.

When it comes to cost, papaer is hard to beat. Go to any drugstore, and you
can pick up a small pack of the stuff for under $1. Computers, by comparison,
are expensive. A top-noctch 386 will set you back $3,000.

Paper's third important quality is portability. While paper is light and easy
to move, computers are cumbersome. If you own a notebook PC, try reading it
in bed or on a bus, and you'll agree that a book or magazine is a much more
graceful traveling companion.

Paper's last outstanding quality is the relative ease with which you can scan
it. Flipping through a book or magazine lets your eyes dart from page to
page. This type of top-down, random access is nearly impossible on a PC.

Does all this mean that the PC is in some way a failure? Not at all. It's
unquestionably the empowering tool of the century, and it ranks with the
invention of the wheel in importance. Its strengths have always been the
powerful ways it can transform and combine information. What this does mean,
however, is that paper will continue to be a partner, rather than a casualty,
of the computer revolution. But if paper isn't in the computer's line of
sight, is something else? Yes. And the endangered species is sitting right
in your living room: TV.