The small island state of the Kiribati consists of 32 coral atolls, covering a total land mass of 811 square kilometres and an average elevation of less than 2 metres. It is at the centre of the current climate change debate, as experts predict it will be the first state to become extinct from climate change.

A combination of rising sea levels and coral bleaching will eventually render the islands uninhabitable. The president of the country, Anote Tong, cites evidence that within half a century, the entire population of Kiribati will have to be relocated.

Since the announcement of the eventual extinction of his nation state to the United Nations General Assembly in 2010, Tong has brought several ideas to parliament for alternative adaptation methods for climate change. They have included building extensive sea walls and entire man-made islands, a project at the sum of approximately $2 billion. As a poor, developing small island nation state, Kiribati does not have sufficient funding for any traditional adaptation methods presented in various climate change assessments, meaning eventual migration will be the adaptation strategy for the people of Kiribati. Kiribati currently faces nearly $1 billion in bills for the protection of their infrastructure from the effects of climate change, and these costs are simply unsustainable in the long run.

This amounts to three times the amount of space of the current state of Kiribati, and plenty of space for its 113,000 citizens. The deal would consist of Kiribati buying the land from a church group for $9.6 million using foreign exchange it acquired in the 1970s from mining phosphate. The land would belong to Kiribati, similar to how celebrities own various islands as private property. However, the land would continue to be under the jurisdiction and sovereignty of Fiji.

In April 2012, the parliament approved the arrangement under the conditions it would not be used as a final destination for all 113,000 of its citizens, the I-Kiribati people. The idea is that 500 residents move to the fertile land to begin two projects. The first project is agricultural, sending skilled workers in the field to produce crops for the potential food shortages to come with climate change, providing additional food security not guaranteed by international aid under the islanders’ current international protections. The second project is to use the landfills in the area as material for sea barriers. These two components, food and higher sea walls, will elongate the time I-Kiribati have on their island. According to Tong, the land currently is seen as an insurance in case of the worst possible scenario, being part of the strategy to deal with the risks associated with climate change and not a refuge for its soon to be environmental refugee citizens.

In the current agreements, two issues remain, that of funding and that of sovereignty. Though Kiribati will own the land, it cannot make decisions such as its laws and it cannot guarantee the rights of their people. With the limited funding available to Kiribati, they have little leverage to gain access to all their wishes. The loss of jurisdiction, especially in native cultures such as those in Kiribati, tends to lead to loss of culture and identity. These people would ultimately be citizens of Fiji, as Kiribati would no longer have rights to statehood without territory (this can be debated, but they are unlikely to sustain statehood).

Fiji has agreed to provide extended jurisdiction to Kiribati, similar to an autonomous region, for an additional price unaffordable to Kiribati. In this circumstance, they would cede power of that region to Kiribati and everyone living there would be relocated or become part of the Kiribati state. At a GDP per capita of $1,600 and a GDP of $612 million, Kiribati has little foreign reserve or external funding to obtain the region. It has asked for an urgent funding package from the international community, however the international community has been unresponsive. This is because the people of Kiribati do not fall under any international protection that would provide them with funding. It is critical that at this stage small island atoll states such as Kiribati and Tuvalu are provided international protection from state extinction by a fund system to provide additional financial support for deals such as the Fiji deal.

A Steep Supply Curve, perhaps?

This purchase is, however, an indicator that there is a market in “selling” or “renting” islands to sinking islands (renting referring to Indonesia’s earlier proposal to rent 1,700 of their small islands in 100 year periods). There are various island states, or states in free association with nation states such as Australia and New Zealand, that have the capacity to rent or sell islands to states such as Kiribati given that Kiribati can come up with the funding. Kiribati is hoping to have similar deals to the one it made with Fiji, owning the island as private property as a resource for traditional adaptation until plans are made and funding available for the ultimate adaptation of migration, with its biggest hopes being the Christmas Islands. Tong wishes to avoid cramming all the people of Kiribati on one island, as this is not culturally similar to the thousands of islands the I-Kiribati live on currently.

In conclusion, this purchase is a signal to the international community that Kiribati is taking measures to ensure their future regardless of the limits of their funding and international support. It signals the potential involvement of the region, most importantly in the development of a market of states buying or renting islands. It is important to provide these island states with the best opportunity to continue their culture, giving them the greatest levels of sovereignty possible as well as homes with similar economies and economic skills to their own. Kiribati is making the educated decision to use the private lands to their adaptive advantage and to have the ability to increase jurisdiction if necessary, a type of insurance policy against the worst case scenarios of climate change. Tong sees these purchases as investments for the nation’s future and hopes these investments will assist him in his wish to be the first sovereign nation state to peacefully relocate intact.