Monday, February 13, 2012

Kevin Goldstein's Top 101 Prospects

Over at BaseballProspectus, Kevin Goldstein has published his top 101 prospects rankings. In contrast to Keith Law, who ranked six Rays on his list, Goldstein had only Matt Moore at #1 and Hak-Ju Lee at #65. Goldstein's Rays top 11 list should be coming out soon.

So which list do you guys think is better? Do the Rays have six top-100 guys or just two, or somewhere in between?

8 comments:

It is hard to evaluate the lists without knowing what criteria each uses. Goldstein seems to say that he tries to think like a major league team front office asking in which order it would want to acquire each prospect.

If that is the case, his list confuses me somewhat. For example, he has Matt Purke at #91, but Purke was drafted in the 3rd round after quite a few other pitchers including Guerrieri. Since he has not pitched professionally yet, so there is no way to compare their performances as a pro yet, doesn't that indicate that he would not be a higher choice than pitchers picked earlier?

I realize why he fell. My question is what has changed since the draft that moves him up the list? The fact that the bonus is now paid? Has he demonstrated, without having thrown a pitch as a pro, that the injury is no longer a problem?

A few months ago, 30 teams decided that they were willing to wait until the 3rd round to acquire Purke while lots of other pitchers were being picked. They all knew he was a 1st round talent then, but still selected others earlier, some of whom were also considered 1st round picks. What has happened in the intervening months to indicate they were wrong?

To clarify, I could understand if Goldstein ranked Stephenson ahead of Guerrieri or Guerrieri ahead of Barnes. They were all pitchers picked in the first round, and it is reasonable to conclude that a front office might prefer one to another. As he says in one of his responses at BP, he does go with his gut sometimes. But we are talking here about someone who fell for reasons that it is difficult to see having changed. Is there a front office right now that would trade Matt Barnes or Guerrieri for example straight up for Purke?

I see your point, Robert ... and I find it a bit disturbing as well. I only think that the price tag (4 mio.) played a very, very big role and that those 4 mio. were the major reason for teams passing on him earlier.

Good defensively, but needs more bat. Career line of .253/.317/.397 over 5 seasons. Invited to spring training because they need lots of catchers with so many pitchers in camp, same as they do every other year. Should start for Montgomery this year. He's not in any danger of being cut or anything, but without any power he'll need to get on base more and strike out less.