2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 19, 2012

19

Chicago at San Francisco

Monday 11/19 08:30 PM Eastern

1 unit on San Francisco PICK () (risk 1 to return 1) RESULT: WIN

Jay Cutler is out. Alex Smith is out. It’s too bad that we won’t get the normal starting quarterbacks for this game as it could have been an epic Monday Night battle. Even with backups, this will be a good game to watch. The Bears had their six-game win streak end the last game and it was ugly, a 13-6 loss at home to Houston. In that game, Jason Campbell really struggled against a good defense. Unfortunately for Campbell, things don’t get any easier on the road against a great San Francisco defense. The Bears made a huge mistake in the off-season by not beefing up a leaky offensive line. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice has gotten around that with a run-first offense. Chicago ranks just No. 30 in passing, but No. 9 in rushing. Even so, Cutler has been sacked a whopping 28 times after Chicago QBs were sacked 49 times last year (23 for Cutler). With this offense line and a backup quarterback facing San Francisco’s defense, look for Chicago’s offense to sputter. The 49ers’ defense ranks No. 6 in the league against the run and No. 5 against the pass. The 49ers are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 Monday night games. They too, have a run-first offense, so Colin Kaepernick will have less asked of him. Kaepernick has seen action all season long and has looked very good, albeit in a very limited role. San Francisco also has the superior offensive line and better skill position talent to rely on with RB Frank Gore and TE Vernon Davis. The 49ers are 16-5-3 ATS in their last 24 games following a spread loss and 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. Lay the points and take the Niners. Buy to -3 if you can otherwise you can play at -3.5.