Trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2006 (452,900 movements) increased by 0.2% compared with August 2006. This followed a monthly decrease of 0.2% for July 2006 and a minimal decrease for August 2006.

Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.0% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2006 (462,300 movements) and 0.8% lower than in September 2005.

During September 2006, short-term resident departures (415,400 movements) showed little change from August 2006 (415,300 movements). This followed monthly increases of 0.6% for July 2006 and 0.3% for August 2006.

The rate of growth in the short-term resident departures trend series has slowed in recent months, following a period of consistent growth shortly after the trend break in October 2005.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2006 (462,700 movements) increased by 3.6% compared with August 2006 and followed monthly decreases of 2.2% for July 2006 and 0.5% for August 2006.

Short-term resident departures for September 2006 (410,400 movements) decreased by 0.3% compared with August 2006 and followed a monthly decrease of 5.2% for July 2006 and a monthly increase of 0.4% for August 2006.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms, there were 426,200 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 491,300 short-term resident departures from Australia during September 2006.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE

Release Date

October 2006

5 December 2006

November 2006

11 January 2007

December 2006

6 February 2007

January 2007

7 March 2007

February 2007

5 April 2007

March 2007

1 May 2007

EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for October 2006 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 16 November 2006. These estimates can be accessed by going to the ABS web site at <http://www.abs.gov.au>. Select All statistics - Access to all ABS products & statistics, then By Catalogue Number, then 3. Demography, then 34. Migration. Choose Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).

DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100 for short-term movements and to the nearest 10 for permanent and long-term movements. As a result, sums of the components may not add exactly to totals. Analysis featured in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication is based on unrounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.

CHANGES IN THE ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

TAKE CARE

Short-term resident departures to Lebanon - As a result of the major conflict between Israel and Hizbollah in Lebanon in July and August 2006, there has been a large downward movement in the seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term resident departures to Lebanon. This has caused some uncertainty in the trend estimates from August 2006. As the underlying behaviour of the series cannot be accurately estimated due to this change, users should be aware that a longer span of data is required before the effects of the changes in the series, and hence the final trend for this series, can be determined.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.

MAIN FEATURES

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in September 2006 (452,900 movements) were 0.2% higher than in August 2006 and 0.8% lower than in September 2005. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 2.0% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2006 (462,300 movements).

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with August 2006 and September 2005.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - September 2006

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

Aug 06 to Sep 06

Sep 05 to Sep 06

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

86.7

90.0

114.4

-0.7

-3.9

Japan

53.5

54.4

52.1

1.6

-7.3

United Kingdom

55.9

57.6

41.2

-0.7

-4.2

United States of America

38.2

40.4

30.0

0.1

3.7

China

26.5

27.2

21.7

1.3

13.3

Korea

22.8

24.0

19.2

2.3

12.6

Singapore

23.2

24.0

18.3

3.2

3.1

Germany

12.1

12.1

11.9

-1.2

-3.1

Malaysia

11.6

9.5

10.5

-1.2

-14.9

Hong Kong

12.8

12.8

10.3

-0.5

-5.4

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in September 2006 (415,400 movements) were similar to August 2006 (415,300 movements). The rate of growth in the series has slowed in recent months, following a period of consistent growth shortly after the trend break in October 2005.

The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during September 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with August 2006 and September 2005.

A trend break was introduced from October 2005 (see Explanatory Note 22). In original terms, short-term resident departures to Indonesia ranked 4th in September 2005 and fell from the top ten in December 2005. In September 2006 short-term resident departures to Indonesia were ranked in 7th position.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - September 2006

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

Aug 06 to Sep 06

Sep 05 to Sep 06

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

73.2

72.3

78.4

1.0

4.5

United States of America

36.9

36.6

46.6

-0.2

0.7

United Kingdom

36.2

35.2

44.1

-0.2

7.8

China

21.8

21.3

30.3

0.2

7.0

Thailand

24.1

24.0

29.6

-0.1

35.4

Fiji

17.5

17.3

21.3

0.7

6.5

Indonesia(a)

14.4

14.3

19.7

-2.6

-48.4

Italy

9.2

8.6

17.0

-0.6

15.0

Malaysia

13.0

13.9

16.6

-0.8

0.5

Singapore

16.5

16.2

16.4

-1.6

1.6

(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.

SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - KOREA

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for September 2006 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Korea represented 5% (22,800 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the ten year period to September 2006 the trend has mainly been upward with the high point being the current month and the low point in March 1998, during the Asian financial crisis. The September 2006 trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals from Korea was 2% higher than in August 2006 and 13% higher than in September 2005.

KOREA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals

The Asian financial crisis (July 1997 to June 1998) had a severe effect on visitor arrivals from many South-East and North-East Asian countries, including Korea. In original terms, arrivals from Korea fell 81% between March quarter 1997 and March quarter 1998 (71,900 to 13,600 movements) and 79% between June quarter 1997 and June quarter 1998 (53,800 to 11,600 movements).

In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from Korea in September 2006 stated holiday (66%) as their main reason for journey followed by visiting friends and relatives (11%) and education (8%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (51%), visiting friends and relatives (20%) and business (12%). The median age of short-term visitor arrivals from Korea was 35 years (40 years for all visitors) and the median intended duration of stay was 7 days (10 days for all visitors).

New South Wales (68%), Queensland (20%) and Victoria (8%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from Korea in September 2006. The main destinations for all short-term visitors to Australia were New South Wales (37%), Queensland (34%) and Victoria (16%).

Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates for September 2006 show that the number of short-term resident departures to Korea represented 1% (2,500 movements) of all short-term resident departures. Between September 1996 and September 1999 the trend series was relatively stable. While the trend series has fluctuated since that period there has been a small increase in the trend level. However, as illustrated by the graph, there is considerable variation in the seasonally adjusted series. The series high was in March 2006 (2,700 movements) while the ten year low point was in December 1997 (1,300 movements). The September 2006 trend estimate was 1% lower than in August 2006 and 1% higher than in September 2005.

KOREA, Short-term Resident Departures

In original terms, short-term resident departures to Korea in September 2006 stated visiting friends and relatives (40%) as their main reason for journey followed by business (22%) and holiday (18%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all residents departing Australia short-term were holiday (53%), visiting friends and relatives (21%) and business (14%). The median age of residents departing short-term to Korea was 43 years (42 years for all short-term resident departures) and the median intended duration of stay was 16 days (15 days for all short-term resident departures).

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 11,700 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during September 2006, an increase of 5.1% compared with September 2005 (11,140 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (19%), followed by people born in New Zealand (14%), India (9%) and China (8%).

There were 4,890 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during September 2006, an increase of 3.1% compared with September 2005 (4,740 movements).

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for the United States of America shows the large increase in the seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals in September 2000, during the Olympic Games in Sydney. For New Zealand the graph shows a small decline in the trend series following the recent plateau in growth after strong increases which commenced in early 2003. The graph for Japan shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003.

United States of America

New Zealand

Japan

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in that country on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand indicates that the trend series for departures of Australian residents may again be increasing after a plateau since mid-2004. For Indonesia the graph shows the impact of the 12 October 2002 Bali bombing and the reduced level of travel experienced in the next twelve months. The effect of the 1 October 2005 Bali bombing is also evident and another break in the trend series was introduced.

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