US Backs Away From Calls for UN Security Council Debate on Irans Nuclear Program

The issue of Iran's nuclear program does not appear headed for UN Security Council debate any time soon. Bush administration officials are not willing to press the issue with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear monitoring organization, before the US presidential election in November, sources tell EurasiaNet.

The IAEA governing board is in the midst of a meeting, with Iran's efforts to develop its nuclear capacity topping the agenda. Tehran insists that its nuclear program is designed for civilian applications. The United States, meanwhile, contends that Iran strives to develop nuclear weapons, and has urged that the international community adopt a tougher line to frustrate Tehran's program. In the middle is the European Union  led by Britain, France and Germany  which has advocated engagement with Iran. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

On June 15, US and EU representatives at the IAEA board meeting were reportedly haggling over the wording of a resolution on Iran's atomic program. The United States has urged that a strong condemnation of Iran's practices be adopted by the IAEA governing board. EU states, meanwhile, favor the adoption of a moderate resolution. US officials reportedly have criticized the EU for putting its own economic interests ahead of the security concerns arising out of the potential breakdown of the nuclear non-proliferation system.

The balance of forces within the IAEA is tilting against the United States. Beyond the European Union, the United States is running up against determined opposition from non-aligned nations. A diplomat belonging to the 13-member Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) of IAEA Board of Governors told EurasiaNet that NAM countries vigorously oppose the US-led push for a strongly worded resolution.

EU-US differences over Iran's nuclear program have narrowed in recent months  helped in part by recent revelations that Tehran's efforts were far more advanced than earlier believed. Nevertheless, there is still a great deal that separates the two camps. Britain, France and Germany continue to argue that the policy of engagement has been successful in slowing Iran's program and opening sites to IAEA inspectors.

US domestic political considerations are exerting influence over the American position at the IAEA board meeting. US President George W. Bush's popularity rating has plummeted in recent months, damaged by the inability of the administration to promote stability in Iraq. Administration officials are now reluctant to potentially foment an international crisis with Iran at a time when Washington is struggling to prevent Iraq from spinning out of control. Accordingly, US representatives at the IAEA board won't insist on sending the Iran issue to the UN Security Council prior to the US presidential election, multiple sources say.

"Some in the [Bush] administration clearly want this course of action [taking the Iranian case to the Security Council], but they are in the minority," said Joseph Cirincione, director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Cirincione suggested that the prevailing sentiment inside the Bush administration is "to go along with [IAEA chief Mohammad] ElBaradei and the IAEA to give verification a chance because it is considered partially effective for now." He added: "an escalation of the crisis could adversely [from the Bush administration point of view] affect the election results in November."

ElBaradei is scheduled to visit Washington after the conclusion of the IAEA board meeting in Vienna. Even if the United States secured an IAEA endorsement for Security Council examination of Iran's program, a debate could possibly be quashed by a veto from permanent council members China and/or Russia, some observers say.

Although the United States seems to have abandoned hopes of Security Council involvement in the nuclear issue, Washington appears intent on keeping the pressure on Iran. A strongly-worded IAEA governing board resolution would be an important component in the near-term US strategy.

In response, Iran appears to be adopting a more aggressive stance of its own. In a recent letter to EU leaders, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami warned that possible EU collaboration with the United States in an attempt to contain Iranian nuclear research would "seriously harm mutual trust" between the EU and Iran. Khatami went on to warn, according to the reformist Sharq newspaper in Tehran, that Iran would curtail its cooperation with the IAEA if the EU backed the hard-line position of the United States. "Continued unfriendly behavior and ignorance of undertakings, will push Iran to consider its different options," Sharq reported Khatami's letter as saying.

Iran's policy-making elite appears divided over the future of the country's nuclear program. On one end of the spectrum, some Iranian leaders say the program should focus exclusively on civilian uses. Hard-line elements inside the political establishment, meanwhile, see nuclear weapons capability as the best possible guarantor against attack.

Observers in Iran believe that the government currently possesses the ability to produce the highly enriched uranium needed for nuclear weapons. But many add that the country remains far from being able to actually manufacture a nuclear weapon. Reformists, whose influence has waned in recent years, along with pragmatists in the policy-making elite say that the nuclear program can be used as a bargaining chip, in which Iran trades a non-proliferation pledge in return for an easing of economic sanctions against the country.

Some Iranian analysts say that any possible move to bring Iran's nuclear program before the UN Security Council would be viewed as a hostile act by virtually all of Iran's factions, galvanizing opinion in Tehran behind an effort to produce nuclear weapons. Thus, such a move could do more to accelerate Iran's drive to obtain a bomb than to hamper such activities.

Some Iranian observers have suggested that if the United States persists in pressuring Iran on the nuclear issue, Tehran might undertake efforts to foment unrest in Shi'a areas of Iraq, thus exacerbating the already daunting US stabilization challenges in that country.

Editor's note:

Ardeshir Moaveni is a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian politics.