Revisiting the 2011 mock drafts and Aldon Smith’s surprise selection

ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock can see the 49ers using the 30th overall pick on Georgia Tech wide receiver Stephen Hill.

Or perhaps, Mayock said, the 49ers will fill their right guard vacancy with Wisconsin’s Kevin Zeitler or Midwestern State’s AminiSilatolu. Wisconsin center Peter Konz is the 49ers’ pick, according to NFL Films’ Greg Cosell.

But what about Connecticut defensive tackle Kendall Reyes, who’s tabbed as the 49ers’ choice in Todd McShay’s mock draft on ESPN.com?

We tend to forget about all these predictions once the actual pick is made. So let’s rewind a year and see how the 2011 draft unfolded before the 49ers took Missouri pass-rushing phenom Aldon Smith at No. 7 overall:

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Even if he was regarded as a top-15 prospect, Smith’s selection surprised many because, well, he wasn’t a quarterback. Kiper, McShay and Mayock all projected the 49ers to take a Missouri product — quarterback Blaine Gabbert, who went 10th overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Gabbert completed 50.8-percent of his passes for 2,214 yards with 12 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 40 sacks and 5 lost fumbles.

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Kiper pegged Smith to go 11th to the Houston Texans, noting: “he Texans have needs all over the defensive side of the ball and I also think they’re looking to move off this pick for the right package of picks. But if they can’t get a deal done and stick at No. 11, Smith represents a ton of upside for a defense that really needs to add some pass-rushing help opposite the great Mario Williams. Again, a lot of the problems in the Houston secondary started up front. I think they should find the tools Wade Phillips needs to get to opposing quarterbacks in his scheme, and Smith will remind him of Ware, a real matchup headache to be used on the edge of that 3-4.”

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McShay thought the Rams could take Smith at No. 14 if they couldn’t move up to draft Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones (who indeed got snagged at No. 6 by the trade-happy Falcons): “We know from his time as the Giants’ defensive coordinator that Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo can never have enough defensive linemen, and Smith makes sense because he has the versatility to kick inside to the 3-technique and provide an interior pass rush much like Justin Tuck did for Spagnuolo in New York.”

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While Mayock figured the Vikings would take Smith 12th overall, he was accurate in saying: “This young man has so much potential, it’s scary. Put the 2009 game tape on against Russell Okung and Danny Watkins, and you’ll get a better view of what he can do. He played through a lot of pain last season.”

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Smith set a 49ers rookie record with 14 sacks in the regular season, then added one in each of the playoff games. He finished second to Denver’s Von Miller in AP Defensive Rookie of the Year voting.

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What was said about Smith after the 49ers selected him? I did a blog post on this subject late last season, and I’m culling up those quotes here:

* Mayock: “Aldon Smith is three years removed from his high school prom. Put it in perspective. There’s a lot of growth. He’s 6-3 and change, he’s 263 pounds. He played the DE in a fourman front at Missouri and was very effective when they kicked him inside. Now the 49ers are going to ask him to stand up, to play 3-4 rush linebacker. He’s explosive, he’s got a natural physical skill set. I was at his pro-day workout. My only concern were the tightness in his hips, so when he steps up and drops back, he’s not natural, he’s not fluid. But they’re not going to ask him to do much of that anyway. He’s going to go get the quarterback.”

* Steve Mariucci, NFL Netowrk: “He’s just a young kid. He’s 21 years old. He’s going to get bigger, stronger, faster. Vic Fangio is going to love this guy to train him. Mike he won’t drop very often. Look we saw him intercept passes and he did play basketball, but what he does best is get after the quarterback.”

* Dave Razzano, Bleacher Report (he rated Smith as second most overrated player behind Cam Newton): “To me this is a tweener type player. Meaning he lacks strength to play on the line or movement in space. Underwhelming as a pass rusher as well. The question remains where do you play this guy?”

* Jon Gruden, ESPN analyst: “This guy has a lot going for him. He was rising big time. Excellent versatility. I’ve seen him play outside (line)backer, I’ve seen him play defensive end, he rushes over the guard in nickel situations. Great playing range when he’s healthy. He can accelerate, burst. He can really get to the football. I’d like to see him play better with his hands. Big decision is where are you going to play him. I think the 49ers just got a puppy. He’s just getting started. Third year player at Missouri. Two years ago he broke the record atMissouri. I don’t think they were happy with the pass rush they got from Manny Lawson, from ParysHaralson, from TravisLaBoy. Aldon Smith, I think Mel, is going to be an outside linebacker for the 49ers and he will get there.”

* Kiper, ESPN analyst: ” He will. And the Texans would have been a good fit for them 11th overall. Redshirt freshman was a dominant player. Limited body of work. Only a third year sophomore coming out early. Reminds me of Aaron Maybin, also a third-year sophomore coming out early with only one year behind him. … for the 49ers, they got nothing from their outside linebackers in a 3-4 scheme. You can’t have that.”

* At the draft, Smith told reporters he models his game after Juilius Peppers, Clay Matthews and Javon Kearse. “I’m not saying I’m like that, but I definitely want to be like that.”

Cam Inman

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This makes me laugh, most of the so called know it alls were pretty much correct with Smith minus one……..MR KNOW IT ALL himself Dave Razzano, he talks so much but most of the time I don’t think he knows what he is talking about or saying. There is a reason he is a FORMER scout and I think it’s becuase his scouting reports were as useful as reports I wrote in 6th grade that left my teacher scartching her head as to what I was tryign to say……This is the same guy that said over and over again that Alex Smith was a -0- talent and would never amount to anyhting he also said the 49ers last year would go nowhere.

Johnny Christo

Dave Razzano can’t get himself off the crapper!!!

workingman

There’s a reason Dave Razzano doesn’t have a job as a scout anymore.

latopia

Don’t forget this tasty morsel from “Greg Cosell — who had this to say about Smith to the Houston Examiner before the 2011 draft [ exm.nr/In1JH4 ]:

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“The concern with me is that he has the tendency to play too upright and if you do that in the NFL you get driven out because it’s not college football, (in the NFL) you’re playing against men. He’s going to have to work on that. If he loses leverage he will not be able to use any of his athleticsm or power because he’ll just be driven out (away from the play) as a stand up guy.”

“[A] lot of his sacks (in college) came from the inside, when he beat guards, and not that many came from the outside. People look at his size – height, weight and all of that – and just assume he’s an outside backer”

The Examiner then summarized Cosell’s assessment thusly: “What you can take away from [Cosell] is that Smith lacks precisely what makes Von Miller the best pass rusher in the draft – the ability to bend, dip, and get low while coming off the edge against offensive tackles.”

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Shorter: Von Miller managed 11.5 sacks in his rookie season; Smith, as you know, logged 14, while Cosell is still a name-without-a-clue.

Which {snicker} won’t stop the Greg Cosell A$$ Worship blog (occasionally known as Inside the 49ers) at the Press Dem from sharing more inanities from Chief Bozo (Cosell)*** & his Insane Clown Posse (the Cohns).

“There’s a reason Dave Razzano doesn’t have a job as a scout anymore.”

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Yeah.

Even more amazing — that Greg Cosell still enjoys great cred despite judgment no better and arguably much worse than Razzano’s.

At least Razzano didn’t go gaga over Russell despite Razzano’s persistent delusion it was he who “discovered” Montana and “convinced” Walsh to draft same.

Razzano on Walsh is probably a case of faulty memory + sour grapes but Cosell must be a media thing where The Tribe always takes care of their own.

marko

I just read through Tim K’s general analysis prior to the first-ever draft by the Ballke/Harbaugh team, and the readers’ subsequent discussion. Nobody was looking at better than a 9-7 season from the Niners a year ago.

Yes, I get to crow (#14) for being the only one in the Bay Area even thinking of Smith.

But the Defense first theme was pretty shrewd, considering we all seemend to feel the D was the good part of the 2010 Niners!

Never understood the fascination with players like Blaine Gabbert who werent all that productive in college but have all the measurables that scouts like. Im so happy that the Niners didnt take him because even at the time I thought he would be terrible in the NFL. I feel the same way about Ryan Tannehill this year. Just because a guy is 6’4 and can throw the ball 75 yards doesnt mean hes going to be a good QB. If they cant be productive in college what makes these guys think theyll do anything in the pros.

Niners in 2012

I would love to see the Niners use next years 1stR pick to trade into this years 1stR. Grab a guard and Fleener!

DaNiners

Cosell is terrible and Razzano is horrid. Someone mentioned the Cohn clowns as well. Did anyone see Grant’s joke of a mock draft. Kalil like 13th or something. Take it to the bank Luck, RGIII, Kalil, Richardson, Claiborne, Blackmon, Gilmore, Tannehill, Cox, Floyd, Kuechly…no trades in top 11 picks…just watch.

louie

I remember that one of the draft websites picked Smith as the 49ers choice. Which one was it? Did anyone have that Webzone screen?

Dan

@latopia, it was Tony Razzano, Dave’s father, who thought he should have gotten credit for the 49ers’s drafting of Montana. Tony passed away in 2002.

Don’t know if you’re a blog regular, but if you are, you’ll know Silver isn’t a personal fave. I know that’s got nothing to do with his piece on Razzano, which seems fair enough. But the guy (Silver) makes my skin scrawl.

/begin rant

Short story: Silver wrote (what I’d call) a hit piece on Rich Gannon on the eve of Super Bowl 37. The story wasn’t particularly revelatory or groundbreaking, just a rehash of lockerroom whispers that Gannon was a harda$$. But it seemed *timed* to embarass Gannon — who was always media sensitive — at the worst possible time.

I was suspicious then and suspicious now that Silver abused his ‘privilege’ as a journalist to execute the media-equivalent of point-shaving. Silver knew Gannon would read the piece. Silver knew the piece would mess with Gannon’s head, which Gannon helpfully obliged by delivering the worst performance of his career.

Was never a Raider fan but always loyal to Bay Area teams (except the Warriors after they gutted Run TMC). What Silver did was, IMO, below the belt and below scum, which makes him the pus that fills the maggot who feeds on the excrement defecated by human scum.

/end rant

Dave-wise, I can see why “rogue scouts” with .200 batting avgs are unemployed, which has nothing to do with rogueness.

@latopia, I know Silver isn’t popular among some folks, both among readers and the NFL. But I read him because he’s a fellow Cal alum and a former 49ers beat writer. He knows 49er history, and he does have relationships with folks that allow him to get inside access. But, obviously, he’s not for everyone.

I did email Sando a while back pointing out his error, but he never replied, and the blog obviously wasn’t updated and corrected.