At least one law firm has a “war room” dedicated to the task; the Canadian embassy in Washington has a nine-person team on the job.

Crucial U.S. Congress votes on the new North American trade deal may be six months or more away — with mid-term elections in the meantime — but the vote counting has already begun.

In Trump administration offices, embassies and lobbyist offices, staff are reading the tea leaves of public comments, letters signed and past votes to track support for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Some see a bumpy road ahead.

Lawyers at Dickinson Wright have estimated the Senate and House of Representatives are a combined 85 votes short of what’s needed to pass the deal.

“It is an uphill battle to get a trade deal through Congress in an ideal political environment,” said the firm’s Dan Ujczo. “If we have a divided government (after the mid-terms) … that hill becomes a mountain.”

Canadian officials say they sense a generally positive response to the accord on Capitol Hill, but anticipate drama.

“It’s a difficult issue for Congress to deal with,” said one official, not authorized to speak on the record. “Trade agreements … come with a lot of debate and a certain amount of noise.”

The office of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also appears to be keeping close tabs on congressional support. There have been positive comments about the accord from 84 members, including 30 senators, Lighthizer detailed to Trump’s cabinet last week. He didn’t offer a tally of negative reviews.

But some groups with a stake in seeing the deal passed say it’s too early to count votes. “So much is unknown,” said Brian Kuehl of the group Farmers for Free Trade.

The USMCA still has to be signed by the three countries’ leaders, but that is likely to happen Nov. 30. It’s then expected to be ratified with little difficulty by Canada – where the Liberals hold a majority – and Mexico, although its deputy commerce minister warned Friday that Mexico won’t ratify the deal as long as it faces U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs.

The biggest question mark hovering over the deal is its fate in the two houses of Congress, whose members don’t exactly have a history of embracing free trade.

The U.S. has entered 20 trade agreements during a time when Canada has inked more than 40.

Indeed, it is “not a foregone conclusion” that the Senate will approve the USMCA, Sen. John Cornyn, the Republican whip in that chamber, warned this month.

The vote is expected to occur next year, after mid-term elections on Nov. 6 that involve every seat in the House and 35 of 100 in the Senate. Polls suggest the Democrats could gain a majority in the House, and the potential to deep-six Trump’s signature North American trade deal.

It’s a given, at least, there will be scores of new faces.

It is an uphill battle to get a trade deal through Congress in an ideal political environment. If we have a divided government (after the mid-terms) that hill becomes a mountain

Dan Ujczo, Dickinson Wright law firm

At the Canadian embassy just down Pennsylvania Avenue from the Capitol building, a nine-person team — six Americans and three Canadians — takes Congress’s temperature on issues, the USMCA now being a priority.

“We are certainly tracking members’ position on it,” said the official. That involves monitoring public statements and social-media posts, as well as votes on previous trade deals. Meanwhile, the team is preparing to brief freshman members after the mid-terms, starting with the basics of U.S.-Canada relations – something many will know little about.

“In Canada, USMCA is a priority, it dominates news headlines,” the official said. “But here in the United States there are so many other issues that come before Congress.”

Lobbying members on the trade accord is generally expected to begin in earnest after the election. One key unknown is where major American business groups will come down on the deal — and what role they’ll play on the Hill.

Dickinson Wright’s war room tracks public comments, votes, letters outlining trade positions, testimony in Congress and intelligence from meetings. With about 20 offices across the U.S., the firm also gauges factors in the legislators’ home districts that could affect their vote, such as the leanings of donors and constituents, said Ujczo.

The current count suggests another 85 votes are needed to achieve a majority in both houses, he said, but that is a “starting point.”

The trade agreement is a “masterful attempt” to build a coalition of support from the right and left, with some of the new labour provisions, for instance, crafted to hook Democrats, the lawyer said. Political factors, however, may also hold sway.

“I don’t see Democrats wanting to give Trump a win,” said Ujczo.

But Chris Sands, head of the Center for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University, foresees the president casting approval of the USMCA as an almost patriotic gesture amid the U.S. trade war with China. Under that scenario, he predicted, the Democrats will likely “cave.”

Comments

Postmedia is pleased to bring you a new commenting experience. We are committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. Visit our community guidelines for more information.