Playoff committee shows brand-name bias still in full effect with flawed first rankings

Brand-name bias is alive and well with the College Football Playoff selection committee. This does not qualify as breaking news.

It’s same-as-it-ever-was news in the sport. The traditional powers, the laundry, the big names get exaggerated respect. And the have-nots, the outsiders, the traditional paupers are eternally downgraded.

The CFP committee reinforced that with their first Top 25 Tuesday night by relegating Memphis to No. 13. That’s the same Memphis that is 8-0 and owns a 13-point victory over Mississippi – an Ole Miss team that won at Alabama and that the committee ranked 18th. How Memphis isn’t in the Top 10 baffles me.

The only logical explanation is that Memphis is a historical nobody that began the season as a nobody, and thus will remain at least a semi-nobody in comparison to the somebodies from the Power 5 conferences.

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Nick Saban's Crimson Tide are currently in the playoff field at No. 4. (AP)

The committee ranked Memphis behind five teams with losses. The Tigers are one spot behind Utah, which lost to a USC team that is not in the CFP Top 25. They are two spots behind Stanford, which lost to the No. 21 team, Northwestern, and beat a UCLA team that is ranked five spots behind Ole Miss.

Memphis is four spots behind Iowa, which beat Northwestern and nobody else of consequence. The Tigers are five spots behind TCU, six spots behind Michigan State and seven spots behind Baylor – all of which are a collective 1-0 against the committee’s Top 25 (counting Michigan State's fluke win over Michigan).

Memphis is eight spots behind Notre Dame, which has a loss on its record (No. 1 Clemson) and one win over the Top 25, No. 22 Temple. It is nine spots behind Alabama, which lost to the same Ole Miss team Memphis beat, and which has one victory over a Top 25 team – Texas A&M, which is ranked one spot behind Mississippi. And Memphis is 10 spots behind an Ohio State team that is 0-0 against the Top 25.

What do bluebloods Notre Dame, Alabama and Ohio State have that Memphis doesn’t have? Nothing right now, yet everything in perpetuity – more money, more fans, better conference affiliation and exaggerated clout with a committee that is supposed to see beyond laundry.

(Looking at one-loss Alabama at No. 4 and Iowa at No. 9, I’m wondering whether the committee may have overvalued victories against a certain unranked team from the upper midwest. Take a bow, Wisconsin athletic director and committee member Barry Alvarez.)

So there you have it, Memphis. If you thought you were going to get a fair, blind-résumé shot at this thing, you were wrong. And the cynics who never believed Memphis would get a fair shake are nodding knowingly right now.

The Tigers do have the potential to move up with three remaining games against teams currently in the CFP Top 25. They play at No. 25 Houston on Nov. 14, at No. 22 Temple on Nov. 21, and could face Temple again in the American Athletic Conference championship game.

But here’s a strong likelihood: if Memphis wins those games it will knock Temple and Houston out of the rankings faster than a vagrant being booted from a country club. It’s a handy Catch-22 for the establishment to use to discount the non-establishment.

The other entities who should be sweating their current standing are the Big 12 and the Pac-12. Neither conference has a team in the top four, which currently contains two from the Southeastern Conference (No. 2 LSU and No. 4 Alabama), one from the Atlantic Coast Conference (Clemson) and one from the Big Ten (Ohio State).

The Big 12 has unbeatens ranked sixth (Baylor), eighth (TCU) and Oklahoma State (14th), plus one-loss Oklahoma (15th). Those teams all will play each other in the coming weeks, which will inflate their strength of schedule and improve the standing of whichever team rises to the top of that league.

“We rank to this point in time, and those teams just haven’t played the strongest part of their schedule yet,” committee chair Jeff Long said of the Big 12.

The committee was no fan of Baylor’s soft non-conference schedule last year, and appears to feel the same this year. If it comes down to a hair-splitting contest involving the Bears, they might be nervous.

The Pac-12 doesn’t even have a team in the Top 10. It also doesn’t have an unbeaten team. Stanford and Utah are Nos. 11 and 12, and UCLA is the only other team ranked at No. 23. The league champion certainly will have a chance to climb into the top four by the time all is said and done, but that team will likely need some help along the way. There are three SEC teams and three Big Ten teams in their path, plus two from the Big 12, one from the ACC and Notre Dame.

Stanford will have its own shot at removing the Notre Dame impediment Nov. 28 in Palo Alto. That has the makings of a playoff elimination game, if both win out until then. But after that, the Cardinal would likely have to win the Pac-12 title game as well. Notre Dame, which has no 13th game, would have all its hay in the barn on Thanksgiving weekend.

With one loss, the storied Irish will have a chance. For an outsider like Memphis, relegated to 13th despite a perfect record and a big win, there may not even be a chance at 13-0.

November 3, 201511:14 pm

SugarBear

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Baylor, TCU take it on the chin yet again from CFP committee

Kevin Jairaj / USA TODAY Sports

Nov 3, 2015 at 8:34p ET

It's a good thing -- wink, wink -- TCU coach Gary Patterson says he doesn't pay attention to this stuff. Because if he was watching Tuesday night's debut release of the College Football Playoff committee's rankings he'd probably need a replacement TV in his office.

Baylor coach Art Briles might be on the phone right now clamoring for the committee to add even more voters from his home state. Clearly the committee still doesn't get Texas because yet again Baylor and TCU took it on the chin.

The first CFP rankings have Baylor (7-0, 4-0 in the Big 12) at No. 6, and TCU at No. 8. That despite Baylor holding down the No. 2 spot in both the AP top 25 poll and the coaches poll. Patterson's Frogs (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) are No. 5 in the AP poll and No. 3 in the coaches poll.

Apparently the committee sees something different. Just like last year. Remember the Horned Frogs inexplicably tumbled from No. 3 to out of the playoff at No. 6 despite a 52-point win that final week. Baylor closed out at No. 5, and everybody knows how Briles handled that. Not well.

Baylor lost starting quarterback and dark horse Heisman candidate Seth Russell for the season in its last game. But CFP chairman Jeff Long told reporters that was not taken into account in these rankings, just as it was not for Ohio State last season. The Frogs, lauded for playing Minnesota in the non-conference last year by the committee, won at Minnesota on a Thursday night in the season-opener this year, but it apparently lacks the same luster.

Unfortunately for Patterson and Briles this time around, the Big 12's backloaded schedule that figures to make November one of the most exciting in recent memory, might be the biggest culprit keeping the Big 12, along with the Pac-12, out of the top four.

The league's top four teams have yet to play one another. TCU, Baylor, No. 14 Oklahoma and No. 15 Oklahoma State essentially play a round-robin schedule this month starting Saturday with TCU at undefeated Oklahoma State. However, it leaves all four teams without a signature victory in or out of conference. Oklahoma's win at Tennessee probably constitutes the best of the bunch.

It's really the only explanation for Baylor and TCU coming in behind one-loss Alabama, the surprise of the night at No. 4, and one-loss Notre Dame at No. 5. Michigan State, which needed a miracle finish to win at Michigan, sits at No. 7 between Baylor and TCU.

No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 LSU and No. 3 Ohio State all figured to be somewhere in the top four.

Obviously plenty can happen between now and the final Saturday of the regular season on Dec. 5. But, wow, this is certainly not how the Big 12 pictured these first rankings.

"The way I look at it right now," Patterson said Monday during his weekly press conference, "is I watch and I think this year we're going to come down wishing that we had an eight-team playoff, not a four."

Patterson and Briles now have good reason to begin wishing that 2015 doesn't become a repeat of 2014.

November 5, 201511:32 am

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Fans, don't sweat the first ranking from the college playoff folks, says Matt Brown of Sports on Earth:

"The key refrain to repeat over the next month is that a lot of arguments will work themselves out on their own. While there are currently 11 undefeated teams, eight from Power Five schools, and a handful of one-loss teams with playoff hopes, many current arguments are going to be resolved by the nature of the schedule.

Alabama plays LSU this week. Clemson plays Florida State this week. Florida plays Florida State and someone from the West in the SEC title game. Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma all still have to play each other in the Big 12. Notre Dame plays Stanford. Ohio State plays Michigan and Michigan State. Iowa will play one of those teams from the Big Ten East. Stanford and Utah may play in the Pac-12 title game. And so on.

So think of the selection committee's first rankings, along with the next four top 25s, as the committee's preseason. Preseason results don't matter in other sports, and they don't matter much here. Over the next four weeks, the committee will be practicing for the real thing, analyzing teams and updating what each has accomplished on a weekly basis. They will get things wrong, and fans and media will yell at them, and that's fine. But until Dec. 6, every week's selection process is operating with incomplete data that's not worth getting too upset about … at least not yet.

Last year, the first playoff rankings were: 1. Mississippi State, 2. Florida State, 3. Auburn, 4. Ole Miss. Of the eventual playoff teams, Oregon was fifth, Alabama sixth and Ohio State 16th. A lot will change over the next month, so take a breath, because this is still only the beginning of the process. How teams eliminate each other in November and early December is the fun part."

Ranking Reaction: Playoff committee shows SEC reverence

A nightmare scenario for the Southeastern Conference has existed since Oct. 17, when Memphis handed Mississippi its second loss of the college football season....

Conceivably, Ole Miss can still win the SEC West Division and the conference title with two losses — which may be a catastrophe for one of the nation's elite leagues. If current standings hold, the SEC would put forth the lone Power Five winner with more than one loss; for a committee that stresses conference championships when comparing "comparable teams," that may leave the SEC on the outside looking in.

Clemson, LSU, Ohio State and Alabama top initial Playoff rankings

It still may. But judging by the initial Playoff ranking released Tuesday by the selection committee, the perception of the SEC is strong enough to potentially squeeze a two-loss SEC champion Ole Miss into the field — and perhaps send one-loss Alabama or LSU to the Playoff even without a conference title, though that seems harder to imagine.

The debut rankings placed LSU, the lone unbeaten team in the SEC, at No. 2. Alabama followed at No. 4 and Florida at No. 10, mirroring, to a degree, the first rankings of 2014: Three SEC teams sat in the top four and six inside the top 11. Alabama's ranking was both a surprise and emblematic of the committee's perception of the conference.

The Crimson Tide have one win against a team inside the Playoff ranking's top 20, 6-2 Texas A&M. Conceivably, Alabama's loss to Ole Miss was weakened in stature by the Rebels' loss to Memphis. In reality, the committee "rewarded" Alabama for a quality loss, even if didn't seem to extend Florida or No. 13 Memphis the same courtesy for actually beating the Rebels.

"You've got to look at Alabama and how they've won those games they've won against quality opponents," said selection committee chairman Jeff Long. "Alabama, from our point of view, had a stronger schedule in the games that they've won. They've got three wins against teams with better than .500 records.

"A team's record speaks volumes. But it doesn't tell everything about that team's résumé. Our committee's charge is to go deeper."

One wonders how the committee will view Alabama next week should the Crimson Tide lose at home to LSU on Saturday. Though that would saddle Alabama with a second loss, it would come against the current No. 2 team in the committee's rankings. With the signal the committee sent this week about its perception of SEC strength, maybe Alabama would stay put at No. 4.

How many games can Alabama lose and still remain a Playoff contender?

No. 18 Ole Miss, meanwhile, stands well outside the nation's elite — even behind another two-loss team, Michigan — but can boost its résumé during the next five weeks. The Rebels still play host to LSU and face rival Mississippi State, No. 20 in the Playoff ranking, to end the regular season. If they win out and take the SEC West title, the Rebels would likely face Florida to decide the conference championship.

There are two factors in the Rebels' corner: For one, remember the case of Ohio State. The Buckeyes were No. 16 in the first poll of last season, as the third seed its own conference. It took the Buckeyes just a few weeks to storm into the Playoff field, boosted not just by their own success but a larger, more important factor: Power leagues cannibalizing themselves during the season's final month.

It's a virtual certainty that chaos is coming to the Playoff rankings — and fast. November sees Alabama-LSU, Ohio State-Michigan State, Notre Dame-Stanford and Baylor-TCU, among others.

And if one year's worth of data has provided any insight into the committee's methodology, it's the weight this group places on eventual conference championships. The debut ranking doesn't take this into account — put simply, the committee can't make such judgments at this point. When push comes to shove in December, the winner of the SEC will be under heavy consideration for a national semifinal; this is particularly true should the winners of other Power Five leagues not be unbeaten.

Conference championships are "an important criteria we take into account in the final ranking," Long said.

The initial ranking tells us that the committee is impressed with the SEC. Two teams sit in the top four. Three in the top 10. Six in the top 20. No other conference is given such respect. LSU can render this moot should it win at Ole Miss on Nov. 14. If not, however, the committee has already shown a willingness to extend the SEC the benefit of the doubt.

November 6, 20159:55 am

DrPopper

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Marc Tracy's The Upshot has well-reasoned predictions about playoff scenarios:

November to Remember
The man who cost the Big 12 a spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff might just be the same guy who guarantees a spot this time around.

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, whose refusal to name a conference champion at the end of last season allowed the CFP to jump Ohio State ahead of both Baylor and TCU, responded with a genius plan this offseason to make it all right again.

Because the Big 12 doesn’t play a conference championship game and doesn’t get the benefits of winning a big game on the last weekend of the season, Bowlsby decided the entire last month of the season would showcase the league in 2015. As fate would have it, the Big 12 enters November with three unbeaten teams (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State) and four teams (including Oklahoma) with legitimate CFP hopes.

Over the next three weeks, the Big 12 has six mega games that begin Saturday with TCU playing at Oklahoma State, and finish Thanksgiving weekend with Baylor at TCU and Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. If any of the three unbeatens win out, they’re a lock for the CFP.

The Road to 4: Potholes everywhere. The last three games will be brutal — and all losable. Even if the Cardinal win out, they’re not jumping Florida if it wins out — especially if the Gators beat unbeaten LSU or one-loss Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Odds of making it: 50-1.

No. 12 Utah

Remaining games: at Washington, at Arizona, UCLA, Colorado.

The Road to 4: If the Utes can beat suddenly hot Washington on Saturday, the rest of the regular season is manageable. The next step: playing one-loss Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game and winning convincingly. Even then, they’ll need implosion in the Big Ten, SEC or Big 12 to get there.

Odds of making it: 75-1.

No. 13 Memphis

Remaining games: Navy, at Houston, at Temple, SMU.

The Road to 4: Complete anarchy and destruction (see: 2007), AND Ole Miss wins the SEC.

Odds of making it: 500-1.

No. 14 Oklahoma State

Remaining games: TCU, at Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma.

The Road to 4: Win out and the Cowboys are in. Anything else, and forget it. Have a fun month, Cowboys season ticket holders.

Odds of making it: 40-1.

No. 15 Oklahoma

Remaining games: Iowa State, at Baylor, TCU, at Oklahoma State.

The Road to 4: There’s a way if it all plays out just right, and there are two or less unbeatens. Of course, that scenario includes winning three big games — and OU hasn’t won one yet this fall.

Odds of making it: 60-1.

No. 16 FSU

The Road to 4: Not as tough as you’d think. A win over No. 1 Clemson this week vaults the ‘Noles to the top one-loss team (especially considering the fluke loss to Georgia Tech). Another win over one-loss Florida and in the ACC Championship Game (one-loss UNC?) gets FSU there as long as there are two or less unbeatens.

Power Hawk
Ladies and gentlemen, yet another way the CFP is just like the BCS: the curious case of Iowa.

The first CFP poll comes out, and a team that has an unbeaten record against seven teams with a combined record of 29-28 (their eight win is vs. an FCS team) is your No. 9 team in the nation.

Yet there are the unbeaten Hawkeyes, with a rout of Northwestern as their shining example of all things CFP-worthy, sitting at No. 9 in the only poll that matters and waiting for everyone in front of them to play significant games that will dictate a season.

While they play at Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, at Nebraska — and their 13-20 combined record — to finish the month of November.

Iowa could win out, beat the Big Ten East Division champion (Ohio State, Michigan State or Michigan) and still not be worthy of a CFP spot.

The latest installment came Saturday night, when No. 7 Michigan State was knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten. Nebraska's winning touchdown with 17 seconds left was allowed to stand even though replays showed receiver Brandon Reilly stepping out of bounds before hauling in the 30-yard touchdown pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. in the Huskers' 39-38 win.

That was just a glimpse. "Separation Saturday" more than lived up to its billing, with seven of the top 20 teams going down. But three teams separated themselves, and here's a closer look at all three:

Clemson: The Tigers keep winning, and Dabo Swinney keeps dancing. Clemson's locker room following wins transforms into one big dance hall. It has become tradition for the Tigers. Something else that has become tradition is winning big games. Clemson held off Notre Dame back in October and beat Florida State for the first time in four years Saturday in a 23-13 win that saw the Tigers devour the Seminoles defensively in the second half. Dalvin Cook had 128 rushing yards in the first quarter but wasn't much of a factor in the final two quarters. As good as Clemson's defense was, quarterback Deshaun Watson might have been the difference. He totaled 404 yards of offense after a slow start and kept FSU's defense off balance with his running and passing. The Tigers clinched a trip to the ACC championship game, but they're thinking a lot bigger than a conference crown.

Alabama: There's Alabama, and then there's old-school Alabama. The Crimson Tide went back to their roots in a 30-16 thumping of LSU, which was, surprisingly, a physical mismatch. LSU's trademark under Les Miles has been physical football, but it was the Tigers who were left black and blue. Leonard Fournette was held to 31 yards on 19 carries after rushing for at least 150 yards in every other game this season. His counterpart at Alabama, Derrick Henry, went for 210 yards and three touchdowns on 38 bruising carries. The Crimson Tide haven't always looked the part this season, just sliding by a few times, but they were back to their old dominant selves Saturday night, and that could be bad news for the rest of the country.

Oklahoma State: Nobody really knew what to make of the Cowboys. We knew Mike Gundy's bunch could score points, and we knew they were unbeaten. But we also knew they were fortunate to slip past Texas, Kansas State and West Virginia by a combined total of 12 points earlier this season, and the win over the Mountaineers was in overtime. Nobody is sleeping on Oklahoma State now, not after its 49-29 win over TCU on Saturday. The Cowboys raced out to a 28-9 halftime lead and were never seriously threatened. Five one-loss teams were ranked ahead of Oklahoma State in the first College Football Playoff rankings, but the Cowboys should (and deserve to) get more respect going forward. They face Baylor and Oklahoma at home the last two weeks after traveling to Iowa State this coming Saturday.

The next few weeks should be even more intriguing, especially because there doesn't appear to be an elite team in college football this season. Do the Big 12 teams beat up on one another? Can Notre Dame get past Stanford that final weekend and knock out a Power 5 conference champion? Have we seen the last of the controversy?

It never shakes out the way we expect it to. But more importantly, college football never disappoints.

Playoff teams after November 7 games

1. Clemson: All those pizzerias in the Clemson area might want to get a head start in warming up those ovens. Coach Dabo Swinney promised a pizza party if the Tigers make the playoff, and they took a huge step Saturday with a 23-13 win over Florida State to stay unbeaten and clinch a trip to the ACC championship game. The Seminoles struck early with Dalvin Cook's long touchdown run, but Clemson's defense rose up and took control of the game in the second half. In its two marquee wins (FSU and Notre Dame), Clemson has won the turnover battle 6-1.

2. Alabama: If there's such a thing as a lightning rod in college football right now, it's Alabama. The groans were wide and loud last week when the Crimson Tide debuted at No. 4 in the rankings. There shouldn't be much debate now about whether they belong after the way they pushed around LSU in a 30-16 win. Derrick Henry (210 rushing yards) is a load, and that Alabama defense is even more of a load. The Tide are playing their best football.

3. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have won 22 straight games dating back to last season, and while it's supposed to be just about this season, they're still easily one of the top four teams in college football when they play at their best. To get there, they need to get J.T. Barrett back at quarterback. Cardale Jones was OK in the 28-14 win over Minnesota, but the Buckeyes were starting to find their groove offensively before Barrett was suspended.

4. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys were sort of the forgotten team in the Big 12 race, but not anymore. They shredded the TCU defense behind five touchdown passes from Mason Rudolph, including four in the first half, and cruised to a 49-29 win over the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma State has scored 177 points in its past three games and is playing its best football of the season.

Next four in contention.

1. Baylor: Coach Art Briles said he wasn't sweating when freshman Jarrett Stidham stepped in at quarterback for the injured Seth Russell, and Stidham showed why Thursday night with 419 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 win at Kansas State. The Bears never could completely put the Wildcats away, and a big reason is they had trouble stopping the quarterback run. Down the road, that could be a problem.

2. Notre Dame: The only blemish on the Irish's schedule remains the close loss at Clemson, and that loss looks better and better as the Tigers continue to win. Notre Dame hasn't skipped a beat with DeShone Kizer at quarterback, who accounted for six touchdowns in Saturday's 42-30 win at Pittsburgh. Notre Dame has won four straight since losing to the Tigers. The only downer for the Irish was losing running back C.J. Prosise to an injury.

3. LSU: Even though the Tigers were overwhelmed physically in the second half, they're still a talented one-loss team with that only loss coming on the road at Alabama. They're probably going to need Alabama to stumble in one of its remaining two SEC games or for chaos to occur in one of the other leagues to get into the playoff, but the Tigers could easily finish 11-1. It hurts that they don't have a quality nonconference win.

4. Stanford: That loss to Northwestern to open the season seems like forever ago. The Cardinal have won eight straight, their latest a 42-10 beatdown of Colorado. That's after escaping at Washington State last week. Running back Christian McCaffrey had 220 all-purpose yards in the win over the Buffaloes and even threw a 28-yard touchdown pass.

November 9, 201510:12 am

thedude

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One loss isn't the end of playoff dreams for these teams

One loss isn't only acceptable, it should be expected. Three of the four teams in last season's top four had a loss, and the national champion, Ohio State, had one of the worst losses in the country, at home in Week 2 to Virginia Tech.

There will be more of the same in Year 2, as the selection committee's first ranking of the season had a one-loss Alabama team at No. 4, ahead of eight undefeated teams. Here's a look at which remaining one-loss teams have the best shot at finishing in the committee's top four based on what we've seen so far, ranked in order from most to least likely:

1. Alabama: The No. 4 Tide were the committee's top one-loss team in its initial ranking in spite of a home loss to Ole Miss, and it should stay that way after their dominating performance in Saturday's win over LSU. In short, Bama is three wins away from returning to the CFP. Bama smothered Heisman front-runner Leonard Fournette while Tide running back Derrick Henry strengthened his own Heisman campaign, and with the win, Alabama regained the lead in the SEC West after Ole Miss lost in overtime to Arkansas. Alabama has two of its final three games on the road -- at Mississippi State and at Auburn -- but will be favored to win out.

2. Notre Dame: At No. 5 this week, the Irish are right on the playoff bubble, and a win at Pitt certainly shouldn't do anything to damage that position. Notre Dame's only loss so far was on the road against what is now the committee's No. 1 team: Clemson. If the Irish can win out, knocking off Stanford along the way, there's a good chance they can bump the Pac-12 out of the playoff picture. Notre Dame, though, has to hope that Stanford wins the Pac-12 title so it has a head-to-head win over the league champ. That wouldn't be the case if Utah won the Pac-12. Notre Dame also needs to hope that nobody in the Big 12 finishes undefeated.

3. Stanford: The Cardinal can overcome their Week 1 loss to Northwestern if they win the Pac-12 title and knock off Notre Dame along the way. The loss to Northwestern certainly doesn't look as bad as it did early on, considering the Wildcats are now a seven-win team and their only two losses are to undefeated Iowa and a ranked Michigan team. Notre Dame's loss to Clemson, though, still looks better than Stanford's loss. A two-loss Stanford team, even if it wins the conference championship, would likely be out because the committee would factor in Notre Dame's head-to-head win.

4. Utah: The Utes' only loss was on the road to USC, and after winning at Washington, their toughest games are behind them. ESPN's Football Power Index favors Utah in each of its remaining games by at least 55 percent. If the Utes win out, and they beat a ranked Stanford team to win the Pac-12 title, they're right back in the playoff conversation. The biggest remaining concern in that situation -- assuming there are undefeated Power 5 champs from the Big Ten and ACC and a one-loss Alabama in the top four -- would be an undefeated Big 12 champ. The Utes would likely need the Big 12's best to stumble.

5. Oklahoma: With their loss to Texas, the Sooners are in a must-win situation every week and have a chance to make a statement Saturday at Baylor. ESPN's FPI gives OU only a 42.1 percent chance to win that game, though. If OU can overcome the odds and finish the season with three straight wins against ranked opponents Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State, it should be considered by the committee, but would also need some help. It needs to be most concerned about comparing résumés with a Pac-12 champ and a one-loss Notre Dame team. OU is ranked ahead of TCU here in large part because of the eye test, even though it has suffered a worse loss.

6. Florida: The Gators looked average at best in their win against Vanderbilt, but they clinched the East and could impress the selection committee with an upset of the SEC West champ in the conference title game. The problem? If the Gators continue to play like they did against Vandy, there's no way they pull the upset in the SEC championship game, which right now looks like it will feature Bama.

7. TCU: The Horned Frogs certainly didn't look like a top-four team in their loss to Oklahoma State, as they were outplayed in every phase of the game and had a season-high four turnovers that led to 21 points. TCU's defense has been questioned all season, and while it seemed to take a step forward in its win against West Virginia last week, it took three steps back against Oklahoma State -- the first ranked team it has faced this year. The Frogs should rebound against Kansas, but end the season at Oklahoma and at home against Baylor.

8. Michigan State: If the Spartans win out, they will still go to the Big Ten championship game, holding wins over Michigan and Ohio State. With a win over an undefeated Iowa team to win the Big Ten title, the selection committee would definitely still consider Michigan State for a top-four spot despite its loss to Nebraska.

9. LSU: In order for the Tigers to get back into the SEC West conversation, Alabama has to lose to Mississippi State or Auburn and LSU needs to win out. LSU still has to face Ole Miss. The loss to Alabama was a true dagger in LSU's playoff hopes.

10. North Carolina: The Tar Heels are a long shot, having to overcome a bad season-opening loss to South Carolina and more importantly, their terrible strength of schedule. UNC would have to win the ACC and pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season in the process. Even if it did, it's hard to believe the selection committee would put a one-loss ACC champ in ahead of a one-loss Pac-12 champ, one-loss Notre Dame or Big 12 champ because the win in the ACC title game would be UNC's only win over a ranked opponent

Alabama Is Rolling in Cash, With Tide Lifting All Boats

Over the past decade, the success of Alabama’s football program has become a powerful engine for the university’s economic and academic growth.

By JOE DRAPE

November 5, 2015

Me: Similar to when the OU president told Coach Bud Wilknson, one of the 6 greatest college football coaches of all-time: "We want to build a university that the football team can be proud of."

November 10, 20159:45 am

cjones22

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Big 12 insane finishing schedule is killing its chances for a 1-loss team to be in the college playoff.

Forward Pass: Will brutal home stretch doom Big 12's playoff chances?

by Biletnikoff Award voter Stewart Mandel

On the 10th Saturday, there was clarity. Finally.

Clemson entrenched itself as the nation’s No. 1 team. Alabama validated its top-four ranking. Michigan State ensured the Big Ten East won’t end in a convoluted three-way tie. Memphis and Ole Miss are no longer potentially awkward playoff crashers.

For one conference, however, Saturday merely served as the first round of a potential four-week elimination derby. The one Power 5 league that missed the 2014 inaugural playoff will either launch its eventual champ safely into the top four or eliminate itself altogether in a haze of 74-yard touchdown passes.

The stage is finally yours, Big 12.

Thanks to an intentionally and perhaps dangerously backloaded schedule, four Top 15 teams from the committee’s initial rankings are now engaged in a round-robin battle royale. Round 1 took place Saturday, when undefeated and previously unheralded Oklahoma State unleashed a 49-29 drubbing of previously undefeated TCU. In an instant, Mason Rudolph and the Cowboys went from peripheral contender to possibly conference frontrunner, while Trevone Boykin and the Horned Frogs’ championship dreams devolved into nightmares.

“The sky's not going to be falling," TCU coach Gary Patterson insisted. "You're going to write the sky is falling, and I'm going to try to beat Kansas next week."

Theoretically, TCU could still make the playoff with a loss. The problem is, that would require a defense that’s now been absolutely shredded on three occasions to survive the nation’s No. 1 (Baylor) and No. 3 (Oklahoma) scoring offenses.

And three other contenders still face much the same gauntlet.

This week, 8-0 Baylor -- which to this point has managed to play zero current “teams with .500 or better records” -- begins the most daunting three-week stretch any team in the country has faced to date.

First up, comes a visit from 8-1 Oklahoma, whose quarterback, Baker Mayfield, is now the nation’s second-highest rated passer. The only guy ahead of him will be on the opposite sideline -- injured Baylor standout Seth Russell. Oklahoma also boasts the nation’s fifth-ranked defense (4.27 yards per play allowed), an astonishing anomaly in this year’s Big 12, though the Sooners have struggled mightily to slow down Art Briles’ recent teams.

If the Bears win that one, they’ll be rewarded with a trip to Stillwater, where Oklahoma State’s defense made its own statement Saturday in picking off the previously impregnable Boykin four times. TCU losing star receiver Josh Doctson with a wrist injury did not help, but at that point it was already losing 28-9.

“If there was an answer for [Boykin] from a scheme standpoint, somebody would have already used it,” Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said afterward. “… I used the Kevin Durant example, the one where you don't let him get to 50 points, just let him get to 25. That's what [the defense] did."

Oklahoma State’s own offense has improved considerably over the course of the season. It’s basically abandoned the running game due to a glut of injuries and put more trust in Rudolph, who exploited TCU’s secondary to the tune of 352 yards and five touchdowns. Receiver James Washington alone had touchdowns catches of 48, 50 and 74 yards.

The Cowboys may be in the best position of the group to win out if for no other reason than the fact everyone else has to come to Stillwater. After a trip to Iowa State this week, Oklahoma State hosts both Baylor and Oklahoma.

As for Baylor, if they do beat both Oklahoma schools the next two weeks, there’s still its Nov. 27 grudge match at TCU, whose coach, Patterson, is borderline obsessed with his nemesis “south of here.” The two schools have seemingly been attached at the hip ever since last season’s 61-58 Baylor win and subsequent “One True Champion” controversy.

As for Oklahoma, the Sooners put themselves in a hole with their inexplicable Texas loss, but they may also be the one team of the four that could make the playoff at 11-1 thanks in part to a non-conference win at Tennessee. Mostly, though, it’s because unlike the other three, their loss would be a distant memory by Dec. 6.

The committee has already proven it works differently than the traditional pollsters in several ways, but they’re hardly immune to recency bias. Alabama lost to Ole Miss early enough that it’s had ample opportunities to put that game in the past. Would Oklahoma State enjoy the same luxury if it lost to Baylor on Nov. 21? Or Baylor if it lost to TCU on Nov. 27?

Selfishly, I hope the conference does not cannibalize itself for one simple reason: An Alabama-Baylor playoff matchup would be simply amazing. But as solid as freshman QB Jarrett Stidham looked in last Thursday’s debut at K-State, it’s asking a lot of him to beat both Oklahoma State and TCU on the road.

Frankly, it’s asking a lot of all these teams to essentially play three playoff games in four weeks, all against incredibly prolific offenses. But this is the Big 12’s answer to no conference championship game. It may work wonderfully. It may blow up in the league’s face.

Alabama, Oklahoma State rise up; TCU, Michigan State slide back

Are you still riding the excitement from Saturday’s college football games? (After that crazy Arkansas 4th-and-25 lateral, how could you not be?) If so, then you probably can’t bear to wait until Tuesday to see how the College Football Playoff committee will rejigger its rankings. So FiveThirtyEight has got you covered. On Sunday, after each week’s games, we will cook up some fresh predictions from our model. (These numbers will change again on Tuesday night after the new committee rankings are released.) Here’s a breakdown of how this week’s games affected the model:

The Tide rolled over No. 2 LSU on Saturday night, 30 to 16, giving them the best Elo rating and a top-four mark, according to the Football Power Index. Our model now says No. 4 Alabama’s chances of making the playoff rose from 41 percent to 54 percent, while LSU’s odds fell from 30 percent to 19 percent.

TCU suffered the biggest blow to its playoff hopes, falling from 31 percent to 10 percent, after the Horned Frogs were walloped by Oklahoma State, which moved up to 16 percent.

No. 1 Clemson, after grinding out a 23-13 win over Florida State, surpassed Ohio State with the best odds to make the playoff: 61 percent. Clemson and Ohio State are now tied as the best bets to win the national title. The Nebraska Cornhuskers, with four wins and six losses, are nowhere to be found on this table, but their effect sure is: after they upset Michigan State, 39-38, the Spartans’ playoff chances fell from 22 percent to 10 percent.

After Shakeup Saturday, Can Anyone in College Football Go Undefeated?

Nov 8, 2015

Let's make one thing abundantly clear: It doesn't matter who you are, how talented your team is, who your coach is, what conference you play in or what your strength of schedule is. The most difficult thing to do in college football is go undefeated, and no italicized font in the world can stress that point enough.

Which team is most likely to stay unbeaten?

So much has to go right for a team to go unbeaten. At the core, a team made up of 18- to 22-year-old players has to be perfect (or nearly perfect) every week. And so we ask: Can anyone in college football make it through the regular season unscathed?

The list of teams with the capability and the remaining schedule to remain unbeaten starts, and perhaps ends, with Clemson. If J.T. Barrett returns as Ohio State's starting quarterback, the Buckeyes could join that short list.

As for the Tigers, they are the No. 1 team in the land, with legitimate reason. In a season with no elite teams, Clemson is arguably the most complete. That's the most anyone can realistically expect out of a college football team this year.

Week 10 of the 2015 college football season was a sobering reminder of that fact. LSU, Memphis, Michigan State and TCU all lost Saturday, and all had College Football Playoff aspirations. That list of fallen unbeatens doesn't even include previously undefeated Toledo, which lost to Northern Illinois 32-27 on Tuesday—the same night the playoff selection committee released its first Top 25.

Furthermore, of the six unbeaten teams remaining—Clemson, Ohio State, Baylor, Iowa, Oklahoma State and Houston—as many as four (Iowa vs. Ohio State, Baylor vs. Oklahoma State) may still have to face one another. The Buckeyes also have back-to-back games against Michigan State and Michigan, who are a combined 15-3.

Houston has a difficult November too, with games against Memphis and Navy, though the Cougars do get both teams at home.

As Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated tweeted, the odds of four teams finishing the regular season unscathed and providing clarity to the committee are, in a word low.

Clemson has by far the easiest path to the playoff, but the Tigers have shown signs of vulnerability all the same. The stiff defense, which has ranked No. 1 nationally in several key categories, was burned on multiple occasions in a 56-41 win over North Carolina State in Week 9. Still, the Tigers found a way to respond offensively to the Wolfpack's surges every time.

The game against Florida State on Saturday was won in nearly polar opposite fashion. In a low-scoring, hard-hitting struggle, Clemson needed 10 fourth-quarter points while shutting out FSU to pull away.

It's not always going to be easy for college football's best teams. In fact, the lack of a dominant team almost ensures there will be a number of close calls. The truly important factor for remaining undefeated teams is asking a simple question with a difficult answer: Can you find a way to win when it matters?

There's no room for fans to be incredulous about Swinney's comments. College football is so unpredictable that it's only natural we see a different team fall every week. Oklahoma's awful loss to Texas becomes even more inexplicable when you notice that the Sooners have been among the more impressive-looking teams since. The possibility of the Sooners winning the Big 12 remains real.

Florida housed Ole Miss at home in early October and then barely survived Vanderbilt a month later. Stanford lost to Northwestern in Week 1 yet could be the best one-loss team in college football.

Who knows with these teams?

And who knows with Clemson? The remaining schedule of Syracuse, Wake Forest and South Carolina looks more than passable, but what if the Gamecocks play rivalry spoiler for the ages? What if, heaven forbid, Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson gets hurt?

Baylor, for example, must navigate its remaining schedule, easily the hardest in college football, without quarterback Seth Russell. True freshman Jarrett Stidham looked more than capable of leading the offense against Kansas State on Thursday evening, but the Bears defense was so bad against the run that the Bears seem just as beatable as any other undefeated team.

Remaining schedules for unbeaten teams

Team

Week 11

Week 12

Week 13

Week 14

Baylor

Oklahoma

at Oklahoma State

at TCU

Texas

Clemson

at Syracuse

Wake Forest

at South Carolina

ACC Championship Game

Houston

Memphis

at UConn

Navy

Possible AAC Championship Game

Iowa

Minnesota

Purdue

at Nebraska

Possible Big Ten Championship Game

Ohio State

at Illinois

Michigan State

at Michigan

Possible Big Ten Championship Game

Oklahoma State

at Iowa State

Baylor

Oklahoma

N/A

ESPN.com

Remember when Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer told everyone to relax and that the playoff rankings would sort themselves out? Well, it didn't even take a week for some of that cannibalization to begin.

Who are we to say Week 10 will be the only time that happens? That's a ton of meaningful football left to be played, and someone has to lose.

At the risk of repeating myself, a common complaint around my house, the College Football Playoff Committee demonstrated yet again Tuesday the many means at its disposal of torturing its favorite whipping boy, the Big 12:

Now even Iowa stands in the way of the local league and the playoffs.

And it's at this point, on top of the fact that Bob Bowlsby's little empire missed the playoffs altogether last year, you have to ask:

What do you people have against the Big 12 anyway?

As predicted here last week, Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State remained in the top four after wins, with LSU dropping to ninth. Notre Dame, fifth in the first rankings, moved into the fourth spot previously occupied by Alabama.

TCU dropped from eighth to 15th after a 20-point loss to Oklahoma State, and rightfully so.

Baylor, on the other hand, remained sixth and on the playoff periphery after its freshman quarterback, Jarrett Stidham, starting his first game, led the Bears to a 31-24 win over Kansas State. Once again, fair enough. If you're not going to roll it up on the Wildcats this year, you get no extra credit.

But in a shocking development, at least by my standards, Iowa leapfrogged the Bears, jumping from ninth to fifth. In rating this vote of confidence, all the Hawkeyes had to do was beat Indiana, 35-27.

That's 4-5 Indiana, by the way.

Now I realize the Hoosiers had played a pretty tough Big Ten schedule lately, losing four straight to Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Michigan State before facing Iowa. But, c'mon, it's still Indiana, where there's a hoop in every driveway, the most famous cultural event centered around a high school basketball team, and Bob Knight remains the most famous former employee.

And beating a basketball school by eight points results in the biggest jump by any school previously in the top ten?

Looks like Tom Osborne, Big 12 expatriate and architect of Nebraska's move to the Big Ten, may be holding undue sway over his committee peers.

Meanwhile, it's another week down, and the Big 12 isn't getting any closer to a playoff. You could argue it'll work itself out if and when Ohio State and Iowa play in the Big Ten title game. They couldn't take two Big Ten teams, right? And Oklahoma State, which jumped from 14th to eighth after its 49-29 win over TCU, has replaced the Horned Frogs.

May even have the inside track of Big 12 schools with home games against Baylor and Oklahoma.

But consider this roadblock: Notre Dame has one tough game left, and that's in its season-ender, against Stanford. A win over the one-loss Cardinal probably figured to help the Irish even when Stanford was 11th.

NCFAA

The Biletnikoff Award is a member of the National College Football Awards Association (NCFAA). The NCFAA was founded in 1997 as a coalition of the major collegiate football awards to protect, preserve and enhance the integrity, influence and prestige of the game’s predominant awards. The NCFAA encourages professionalism and the highest standards for the administration of its member awards and the selection of their candidates and recipients. For more information, visit the association’s official website, www.ncfaa.org.