samedi 7 juin 2014

Jun 8, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
MID SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH TO THE APPALACHIANS. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO UT. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
CO/NM...WHERE MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO
WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES DURING THE EVENING. FAVORABLE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM.
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINTAIN A SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF
THE LARGE MCS NOW OVER OK. HOWEVER...DUE TO BETTER UPPER FORCING
TONIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SEVERAL NIGHTS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
RISK FOR STORMS AS THEY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH
TX.
...ARKLATEX INTO MS/AL...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF OK/NORTH
TX AND AR THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
PROBABLY SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING. STRONG DESTABILIZATION ON THE
SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE REMNANT MCS MAY RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF AR. THOSE STORMS WOULD
POTENTIALLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF MS/AL DURING THE EVENING.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
...OH/PA/WV/VA...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OH. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MID LEVEL
MOISTENING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN PA SOUTHWARD INTO WV/VA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.