Political paralysis has impeded Iraq's ability to fight ISIS militants who have seized large parts of the country

Al-Abadi's appointment has drawn praise from the White House, Iran and Saudi Arabia

There may not be many issues on which the Islamic Republic of Iran and the White House agree, but dumping Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in favor of Haider al-Abadi is one of them. The message from a growing number of actors inside and outside Iraq is the same: Maliki must go if the country is to be saved.

Iraq's unofficial power-sharing agreement dictates that the President is a Kurd, the Speaker of Parliament a Sunni and the Prime Minister a Shia. This division of power among Iraq's three main groups has helped to prevent Maliki's growing authoritarianism during his eight years as premier.

In 2011, a Sunni Vice-President -- Tariq al-Hashimi -- fled to Kurdish northern Iraq after Maliki ordered his arrest and accused him of terrorism. The Prime Minister also suppressed Sunni protests in western Iraq, giving the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) the opening it needed in courting Sunni tribes.

Now the much-maligned constitution may have come to the rescue. It stipulates that the President -- currently Fuad Masum, who was elected on July 24th -- should call on the leader of the largest bloc in parliament to form a new government within 30 days. Maliki said that was him as leader of the State of Law bloc, but Maoum was open to other interpretations. Shia politicians in the broader but loose National Alliance wrote to the President Monday to say they could muster more votes than Maliki.

It was -- in essence -- a coup within the Prime Minister's own party.

So, can a new government be formed?

Coalition-building in Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein has never been easy, but Nuri al-Maliki has arguably made it harder through his growing reliance on a Shia bloc loyal to him. He has built up special forces outside the regular army and accentuated sectarianism in Iraqi politics. In the process, he has alienated the Kurdish and Sunni minorities.

After April's elections, there was a sense of paralysis. It took several attempts just to get a quorum in the new parliament so a new President could be appointed. Maliki stayed on as Prime Minister, believing opposition to him would crumble because no other viable candidate would emerge.

Smoke rises from the front line of a clash south of Kirkuk, Iraq, on Saturday, March 14.

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A group of Kurdish Peshmerga troops take a break from fighting ISIS militants south of Kirkuk on March 14.

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Iraqi security forces and allied Shiite militiamen gather in Tikrit on Friday, March 13. Ousting ISIS from Tikrit is important for the United States-led coalition trying to thwart the extremist group's quest to grow its caliphate. ISIS wants to create an Islamic state across Sunni areas of Iraq and Syria.

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A motorcyclist passes destroyed buildings in the Syrian town of Kobani on Thursday, March 12, after it has been freed from ISIS militants.

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Smoke billows after a mortar shell hit an Anbar governorate building in Ramadi, Iraq, on Wednesday, March 11. ISIS has launched a coordinated attack on government-held areas of the western Iraqi city. Ramadi has been the focus of a fierce ISIS assault since Iraqi forces made gains against the group in Tikrit.

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The parents of 19-year-old Mohammed Musallam react at the family's home in the East Jerusalem Jewish settlement of Neve Yaakov on Tuesday, March 10. ISIS released a video purportedly showing a young boy executing Musallam, an Israeli citizen of Palestinian descent who ISIS claimed infiltrated the group in Syria to spy for the Jewish state. Musallam's family told CNN that he had no ties with the Mossad, Israel's spy agency, and had, in fact, been recruited by ISIS.

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Iraqi Shiite fighters cover their ears as a rocket is launched during a clash with ISIS militants in the town of Al-Alam, Iraq, on Monday, March 9.

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Displaced Assyrian women who fled their homes due to ISIS attacks pray at a church on the outskirts of Damascus, Syria, on Sunday, March 1. ISIS militants recently abducted at least 220 Assyrians in Syria.

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Safi al-Kasasbeh, right, receives condolences from tribal leaders at his home village near Karak, Jordan, on Wednesday, February 4. Al-Kasasbeh's son, Jordanian pilot Moath al-Kasasbeh, was burned alive in a video that was recently released by ISIS militants. Jordan is one of a handful of Middle Eastern nations taking part in the U.S.-led military coalition against ISIS.

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A Kurdish marksman looks over a destroyed area of Kobani on Friday, January 30, after the city had been liberated from the ISIS militant group. The Syrian city, also known as Ayn al-Arab, had been under assault by ISIS since mid-September.

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Smoke billows in Kirkuk as Kurdish Peshmerga fighters take position against ISIS militants on January 30.

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Kurdish people celebrate in Suruc, Turkey, near the Turkish-Syrian border, after ISIS militants were expelled from Kobani on Tuesday, January 27.

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Collapsed buildings are seen in Kobani on January 27 after Kurdish forces took control of the town from ISIS.

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Junko Ishido, mother of Japanese journalist Kenji Goto, reacts during a news conference in Tokyo on Friday, January 23. ISIS would later kill Goto and another Japanese hostage, Haruna Yukawa.

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ISIS militants are seen through a rifle's scope during clashes with Peshmerga fighters in Mosul, Iraq, on Wednesday, January 21.

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An elderly Yazidi man arrives in Kirkuk after being released by ISIS on Saturday, January 17. The militant group released about 200 Yazidis who were held captive for five months in Iraq. Almost all of the freed prisoners were in poor health and bore signs of abuse and neglect, Kurdish officials said.

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Smoke billows behind an ISIS sign during an Iraqi military operation to regain control of the town of Sadiyah, about 95 kilometers (60 miles) north of Baghdad, on Tuesday, November 25.

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Fighters from the Free Syrian Army and the Kurdish People's Protection Units join forces to fight ISIS in Kobani on Wednesday, November 19.

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A picture taken from Turkey shows smoke rising after ISIS militants fired mortar shells toward an area controlled by Syrian Kurdish fighters near Kobani on Monday, November 3.

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Iraqi special forces search a house in Jurf al-Sakhar, Iraq, on Thursday, October 30, after retaking the area from ISIS.

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ISIS militants stand near the site of an airstrike near the Turkey-Syria border on Thursday, October 23. The United States and several Arab nations have been bombing ISIS targets in Syria to take out the militant group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters.

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A U.S. Air Force plane flies above Kobani on Saturday, October 18.

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Heavy smoke rises in Kobani following an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on October 18.

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Cundi Minaz, a female Kurdish fighter, is buried in a cemetery in the southeastern Turkish town of Suruc on Tuesday, October 14. Minaz was reportedly killed during clashes with ISIS militants in nearby Kobani.

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Turkish police officers secure a basketball stadium in Suruc on October 14. Some Syrian Kurds were held there after crossing from Syria into Turkey. Tens of thousands of people fled Kobani to escape ISIS.

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Kiymet Ergun, a Syrian Kurd, celebrates in Mursitpinar, Turkey, after an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition in Kobani on Monday, October 13.

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Alleged ISIS militants stand next to an ISIS flag atop a hill in Kobani on Monday, October 6.

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In this photo released by the U.S. Air Force on Saturday, October 4, a U.S. Navy jet is refueled in Iraqi airspace after conducting an airstrike against ISIS militants.

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A Kurdish Peshmerga soldier who was wounded in a battle with ISIS is wheeled to the Zakho Emergency Hospital in Duhuk, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 30.

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Syrian Kurds wait near a border crossing in Suruc as they wait to return to their homes in Kobani on Sunday, September 28.

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Tomahawk missiles, intended for ISIS targets in Syria, fly above the Persian Gulf after being fired by the USS Philippine Sea in this image released by the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, September 23.

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Turkish Kurds clash with Turkish security forces during a protest near Suruc on Monday, September 22. According to Time magazine, the protests were over Turkey's temporary decision to close the border with Syria.

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS militant positions from their position on the top of Mount Zardak, east of Mosul, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 9.

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Iraqi volunteer fighters celebrate breaking the Amerli siege on Monday, September 1. ISIS militants had surrounded Amerli, 70 miles north of Baquba, Iraq, since mid-June.

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Kurdish Peshmergas fight to regain control of the town of Celavle, in Iraq's Diyala province, on August 24.

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Peshmerga fighters stand guard at Mosul Dam in northern Iraq on Thursday, August 21. With the help of U.S. military airstrikes, Kurdish and Iraqi forces retook the dam from ISIS militants on August 18. A breach of the dam would have been catastrophic for millions of Iraqis who live downstream from it.

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Displaced Iraqis receive clothes from a charity at a refugee camp near Feeshkhabour, Iraq, on Tuesday, August 19.

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Peshmerga fighters inspect the remains of a car that reportedly belonged to ISIS militants and was targeted by a U.S. airstrike in the village of Baqufa, north of Mosul, on August 18.

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Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS in Khazair, Iraq, on Thursday, August 14.

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Aziza Hamid, a 15-year-old Iraqi girl, cries for her father while she and some other Yazidi people are flown to safety Monday, August 11, after a dramatic rescue operation at Iraq's Mount Sinjar. A CNN crew was on the flight, which took diapers, milk, water and food to the site where as many as 70,000 people were trapped by ISIS. But only a few of them were able to fly back on the helicopter with the Iraqi Air Force and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.

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Thousands of Yazidis are escorted to safety by Kurdish Peshmerga forces and a People's Protection Unit in Mosul on Saturday, August 9.

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A Baiji oil refinery burns after an alleged ISIS attack in northern Selahaddin, Iraq, on Thursday, July 31.

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A Syrian rebel fighter lies on a stretcher at a makeshift hospital in Douma, Syria, on Wednesday, July 9. He was reportedly injured while fighting ISIS militants.

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New army recruits gather in Najaf, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters.

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Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12.

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Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10.

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Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10.

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EXPAND GALLERY

The rapid advance by ISIS and the growing disenchantment of the Shia establishment with Maliki's obstinate refusal to give way broke the logjam. Two events in the last few days seem to have turned doubters into opponents.

The first was ISIS' capture of the strategically vital Mosul dam, just as the fighters also put pressure on Kurdish towns to the north. The dam is a critical link in central Iraq's power and water supplies -- but its destruction would flood a huge tract of the country.

The second (and possibly related) event was the strongest suggestion yet from Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani -- the undisputed leader of Iraq's Shia -- that Maliki's time was up. Through a representative at Friday prayers last week, Sistani warned that politicians who put their self-interest before the national interest were committing a "grave mistake."

Sistani's position created fissures within the State of Law coalition and Maliki's own Dawa Party, according to Ayham Kamel of the Eurasia Group political consultancy firm, "and provided members of the State of Law coalition with political cover to defect to the National Alliance."

Who is Haider al-Abadi?

Haider al-Abadi was born in Baghdad in 1952. A long-time member of the Dawa Party (he is said to have joined as a teenager) he was one of thousands of prominent Iraqis -- especially Shia -- who left the country during Saddam Hussein's rule. Al-Abadi left to study abroad after receiving a bachelor's degree in 1975, and stayed away as Hussein tightened his grip on the country. Two of his brothers were not so lucky; they were executed in 1982 for belonging to the Dawa Party. The following year, the regime cancelled Haider's passport.

Al-Abadi spent many years in Britain, where he received a doctorate in electrical engineering at the University of Manchester. His father, who had been a prominent Iraqi official, was accused of insufficient loyalty to the regime and was forced to retire in 1979. He moved to Britain and lived there until his death.

After Hussein was ousted, al-Abadi returned to Iraq in 2003 and became Communications Minister in the interim government, where his language skills and international contacts proved valuable. According to his biography, al-Abadi was put in charge of ridding the northern Iraqi city of Tal Afar of al Qaeda in 2005, and successfully brought tribes together in doing so. It may prove to have been useful experience; Tal Afar is now under the control of ISIS.

In interviews in recent weeks he has stressed the need for unity and compromise in the face of a common enemy, saying all groups had been weakened in the face of the militant threat. He has argued fervently against the division of Iraq and said he is open to help from Iran (where many Dawa Party members lived in exile.)

What happens to Maliki?

Despite the growing odds against him, Nuri al-Maliki is not going quietly. He has deployed militia loyal to him around and inside the Green Zone -- the center of federal power in Iraq -- and says he will challenge the President's move in court over a "grave constitutional breach."

"Maliki will pressure the constitutional court to issue a clearer ruling that prevents Abadi from assuming power," says Kamel of the Eurasia Group.

Maliki also remains head of the armed forces and intelligence services, and commands the Defense and Interior ministries. Kamel suggests "Maliki could also approve a new military offensive against ISIS and claim that a leadership change would jeopardize the security environment."

But the army has made it clear that its loyalty is to the state, not the Commander-in-Chief. Senior commanders have been alienated by Maliki's formation of militia and special brigades that have taken resources and power from the military, as well as political patronage in senior appointments. Loyalty was prized above ability.

There is the danger that die-hard loyalists to Maliki could put up a fight, drawing the security forces into a battle for control of Baghdad just as they face ISIS not far from the capital. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry alluded to this risk Monday, saying: "The government formation process is critical in terms of sustaining stability and calm in Iraq and our hope is that Mr. Maliki will not stir those waters."

The Institute for the Study of War notes that the powerful Iranian-backed Shia militia, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, has already abandoned Maliki. And it adds that "Iranian-directed militia activities will likely neutralize other elements of the ISF (Iraqi Security Forces) that are loyal to Maliki." Even so, groups like the Badr Brigades -- if they decide to support Maliki -- have the potential to stir trouble.

Some observers suggest Maliki be given a ceremonial position -- perhaps a Vice-Presidency -- to provide him with a dignified exit. But for now he appears to have been outmaneuvered by the same tactics he used so effectively in the past. As Joel Wing writes in his Musings on Iraq blog, "Rather than finding the chinks in his opponents' armor like he did in 2010, it was [his own] State of Law who ended up breaking apart. Now he's left to verbal threats, claims of illegality, and intimidating maneuvers."

"With all the support Abadi is garnering, it will all be over when he presents his ruling coalition for approval to parliament in the next 30 days," writes Wing.

What do the Kurds and Sunnis think?

So far much of the political drama has played out among the Shia parties in Baghdad. Sunni and Kurdish groups are preoccupied with more pressing problems in the face of the ISIS threat, and are waiting to see how al-Abadi follows through on his conciliatory language.

The Dawa Party's Shia Islamist complexion may make Sunnis and Kurds wary of al-Abadi. After all, until recent weeks he was a close aide of Maliki, and therefore -- in the eyes of many Sunnis and Kurds -- guilty by association with an increasingly sectarian Shia program.

The Dawa Party also favors a strong central government, and the Kurds may be concerned that their gains amid the chaos of the last few months -- especially in taking control of Kirkuk and its oil fields -- will be challenged.

Their veteran leader, Massoud Barzani, has said that recent events have forever changed the nature of Iraq -- and suggested a referendum on Kurdish independence may be held.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden urged Barzani "to work closely with Dr. Abadi as he works to build a diverse, inclusive government," according to a statement from the White House. But the Kurds will want to see concessions on what they would regard as a fairer division of Iraqi oil revenues, as well as more generous supplies of weaponry from Baghdad with which to fight ISIS.

There is rare unanimity that al-Abadi, while not exactly a consensus figure, has to be given a chance to "reach across the aisle" in the face of the existential threat posed by ISIS, which now controls swathes of north and western Iraq.

Obama has already reached out to al-Abadi to urge him to form a cabinet representative of Iraq's ethnic and religious communities. And al-Abadi has made the right noises in response. The White House said he had "expressed his intent to move expeditiously to form a broad-based, inclusive government" in a phone call with the President.

The language out of Tehran has been more restrained, but equally pointed. Ali Shamkhani, a member of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on Tuesday his country backed the legal procedure taken in the nomination of the Prime Minister. Saudi Arabia -- which has long loathed Maliki -- also joined the chorus, congratulating President Masum on nominating al-Abadi.

The question is whether, if and when Maliki is forced from office, the Obama administration will step up its participation in the campaign against ISIS. John Kerry has already (not surprisingly) ruled out ground troops. But he said Tuesday: "What we are really looking for is a way to support Iraq, support their forces whether it's training, equipment of one sort or another that can help them stand on their own two feet."

To Max Boot at the Council on Foreign Relations, the question is: "Will we stick to a minimalist containment strategy designed to prevent ISIS from taking Erbil and murdering the Yazidis? Or will we implement a much more ambitious strategy to enable the defeat of ISIS?"

If the latter, the U.S. may need to get the new government's assent for arming Kurdish Peshmerga forces directly, so ISIS can be challenged on two fronts.

U.S. airstrikes appear to have stemmed ISIS' momentum in the Sinjar area near the Syrian border and east of Mosul for now, and better coordination between the Iraqi army and Kurdish forces will further pressurize ISIS. But the militants are resilient, well-organized and have seized weaponry such as armored personnel carriers and tanks from Iraqi armories.

Success on the battlefield -- long awaited but so far unrealized -- may be al-Abadi's best ally as he tries to stitch together a majority in parliament.