Note: This is a seattlepi.com reader blog. It is not written or edited by the P-I. The authors are solely responsible for content. E-mail us at newmedia@seattlepi.com if you consider a post inappropriate.

Summary of the Latest in Global Warming

There has been an increase in extreme weather events in the past decade (e.g. from AGU Dec. 2011 meeting; IPCC report, Dec. 2011). This year, we saw one extraordinary event after another, from torrential rains in the Midwest to extreme drought in the American South. 14 major weather disasters (>$1B) occurred in the USA this year. The average is 3; the previous record was in 2010. These happened to all be in the South and Midwest of the USA. A certain Republican presidential candidate might say ‘God was angry at this area’. Could be, there’s certainly ample reason (e.g. over 70% in this region believe Global Warming is a fraud). There was flooding from torrential rains in the Midwest (and Australia and Indonesia, etc.) to extreme drought in the American South. In Texas, daily temperatures were a full five degrees above normal! Severe drought has affected portions of the state of Hawaii continuously since June 2008. 2011 was the most intense tornado season on record.

Yet Ho Hum goes the news media. Interview one climate expert (out of thousands) and one scientist critic (out of a few, usually a small particle physicist.)

The story was much the same around the world. Since mid-July 2011, a severe drought has been affecting the entire East Africa region; said to be “the worst in 60 years”. Northern Europe has its worst drought since records began in 1881. Thailand’s worst floods in 50 years claimed 730 lives, northern China’s drought that started in 2010 continued well into 2011 and was the worst drought to hit the country in 60 years. Many more major disasters occurred around the world, from drought in Russia to flood in the Philippines (extremely strong typhoon, extremely late in the season). The minimum Arctic ice extent this year is very close to the all time minimum of 2007, and indeed some other research groups place 2011 as the lowest on record. At this point, using NSIDC processing and sensor series, the 2011 minimum is a close second. (The National Snow and Ice Data Center continuously records Sea Ice Index data from space. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/ )

Despite stagnation or economic recession in many industrialized countries, concentrations of CO2, measured at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, peaked at more than 394 parts per million in May. (A great blog site, 350.org, takes Hansen’s models to suggest this is a ‘turning point’ number.)

Almost every study of flora and fauna show changes that can be explained by Global Warming ranging from migrations to extinctions. For instance, the annual Xmas Audubon bird count is continuing to show bird migrations corresponding to a warming globe. Forests are dying.

A 30-year study at the Univ. of Hawaii using satellite data independently warns of GW. They find that changes in the threshold temperature for convection (warm air rising) closely follow the changes in average tropical sea surface temperature, which have both been rising approximately 0.1°C per decade, consistent with climate model simulations. This predicts stronger storms due to increased temperature gradients. However, typhoons will be a little more difficult to initiate, so maybe there will be fewer, though stronger oceanic storms.

The IPCC warns that extreme weather will increase as climate change takes hold, including heavier rainfall, fiercer storms and intense droughts. Together with rising sea levels that will increase the vulnerability of coastal areas this could wipe billions off economies and destroy lives. Scientists have warned of these effects for years, but a recent report – the “special report on extreme weather” compiled over two years by 220 scientists – is the first comprehensive examination of scientific knowledge on the subject, in an attempt to produce a definitive judgment. The report contained stark warnings for developing countries in particular, which are likely to be worst afflicted in part because of their geography, but also because they are less well prepared for extreme weather in their infrastructure and have less economic resilience than developed nations. But the developed world will not be unscathed – heavier bursts of rainfall, heat waves and droughts are all likely to take their toll. Chris Field, co-chair of the IPCC working group that produced the report, said the message was clear – extreme weather events were more likely. “Some important extremes have changed and will change more in the future. There is clear and solid evidence [of this]. We also know much more about the causes of disaster losses.”

Meanwhile, there is no effective effort by Homo sapiens to deal with the signs of GW. The US leads in anti-GW and anti-science propaganda (see Chris Mooney’s book: The Republican War on Science and his AGU talk). Even NOAA’s modest, no-cost effort at reorganization to provide better climate forecasts was defeated by Republicans in the House. This was noted in the usually GW-ignoring Seattle daily paper news. Russia supports Canada’s decision to pull out of the Kyoto Protocol, says its foreign ministry, reaffirming Friday that Moscow will not take on new commitments.

Note: This is a seattlepi.com reader blog. It is not written or edited by the P-I. The authors are solely responsible for content. E-mail us at newmedia@seattlepi.com if you consider a post inappropriate.