November 6, 2012

5:12 Central Time: Won't you hang out with me while we watch the results come in? Here's a helpful map, showing what times the polls close in the various states. Polls in parts of Indiana and Kentucky closed a quarter hour ago, but what will be rather thrilling is the top of the hour, 7 Eastern Time, when Florida (minus the part under Alabama) and Virginia close, and then half an hour after that Ohio and North Carolina. Perhaps things at that point will be so decisive we will more or less know. Drudge is saying "EXIT POLLS TIGHT," giving Romney NC and FL and Obama NH, PA, MI, and NV, and listing OH, VA, CO, and IA as toss ups. What? No Wisconsin? I'm thinking it will all be about Wisconsin. But I'm Wisconsincentric.

5:25: After all this time watching the election, I wonder what life will be like tomorrow. I hope it's not 2000-style craziness with recounts and litigation and accusations of fraud. Let it be decisive, and let's accept the results — is that a good centrist idea we can all sign onto?

5:50: I'm watching CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News, and hanging out at MSNBC for the last few minutes, I get the feeling they think the GOP will do well. Why? They're going at the topic of the way the GOP isn't likely to take the majority in the Senate. I'm just getting the feeling that they are moving into that place of refuge.

6:00: Nothing exciting at the top of the hour. Virginia not called. But that's not surprising. It was expected to be close.

6:30: Romney wins West Virginia, unsurprisingly. NC and Ohio are now closed, but they're not calling it, unsurprisingly. CNN reveals exit polls: 49/49 in NC and 51% Obama, 48% Romney in Ohio. Impressive for Obama... if the exit polls are right.

6:41: Boring! Maybe you should go for a run, have sex, or guzzle an Ardberg along with a chocolate bar and then come back in 20 minutes or an hour or so. Wouldn't that make more sense?

7:27: On Fox News, Rove is on fire. Joe Trippi is stammering and looking worried. Good for Romney, right?

7:37: Watched ABC network for a while and there's a wild-eyed desperation that tells me they know Obama's in trouble.

8:00: CNN calls Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska (3 of the 5), North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, and Mississippi to Romney. Michigan, New York, and New Jersey for Obama. (There goes Michigan, which had been considered possible for Romney.)

8:02: They can't call Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, and my home state Wisconsin.

10:04: Oh, I see I've been away for 2 hours. I couldn't take the stress. It's not as though you're reading this blog for news updates. What do you want from me? Gushings of emotion? I'm being mellow, distancing myself from the political fray, reconnecting to my old aversion to politics. The people will have what they have chosen, and I hope for the best, especially for the young people. Tomorrow there will be new things to talk about, I assume. The election is over, is it not? Obama will win, perhaps without the popular vote, like Bush. What will he do with it? Take us to a higher ground, at last? Or nothing at all.

Just a bit ago, I got what I hope will be the last phone call of this election season (although, given that Iowa polls are still open for another three hours, one never knows). It was one recorded by...Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Heh.

One thing I never heard anyone talk about (myself included) was taking the 7 million conservatives who stayed home last time rather than soil their delicate little patties voting for McCain into account in all the skews and turnout models.

(just occurred to me a couple of days ago)

Ann Althouse said...

Let it be decisive, and let's accept the results — is that a good centrist idea we can all sign onto?

Madame, Conservatives and Republicans even accepted 1960.

It's the people who still want Walker recalled that continue to bitch about '00, even though it's been proven Dubya won FL.

PS FWIW, looks like turnout is going the Romster's way in several of the swing states - OH included.

I waited nearly two and a half hours to vote in my coastal SC polling place late this morning. The delay was due in modest part to turnout, but mostly to election commission incompetence. Not enough voting machines (not nearly enough) and a check in procedure that works great for 25% turn out but not for 75%.

Our polling place is very diverse racially, economically and age wise. One old black man--he had to be 90--had been waiting in line for two hours before he even got into the gym where the voting machines are. It would have been 30-40 minutes more. A young black woman and I were almost at the front of the line and asked a poll worker to get him and move him through check-in (ID required) and to the front of the line ahead of us. The poll lady did so, and no one objected, but it would never have happened if someone had not asked. (Not hostility, but mindlessness.)

It was quite moving to see the old guy shuffle up to the voting booth. The life he has seen.

Nearly all of the blacks were going to vote for Obama. How could they not, in a place where many remember being denied the vote. (It matters not to them that Democrats were the deniers.) Probably 70-75% of the whites in our area will vote Romney, maybe more. Yet everyone black and white were warm and cordial to each other. This is not an act. Southerners, the best of them, the kind who will stand two hours in line to vote, are very good people. They have manners. They go to church (Black and White separately). They know they disagree, and many think the others' point of view is hopelessly wrong. Yet they are kind and decent to each other. It's in the blood.

Casey said...Speaking as an Ohio resident, I'm calling the state for Romney, and I think the lead will be big enough to invalidate any claims of shenanigans.

Well, I live in Ohio and I don't see how that helps much in guessing what the whole state will do. If I went by my voting location in Cuyahoga County, it was identical to the last presidential election. Which doesn't tell me anything, because there was no line in 2008 and there was no line today. Though I purposely go at what I think will be the least crowded time.

"It looks like Republicans were hyping up Mittmentum a bit. Didn't Althouse say if the election is really tight Obama would probably squeak out the win? It's starting to look that way. "

From exit polls ?

Ask president Kerry.

Yeah, I remember 2004 very well. I saw the exit polls then I was driving around listening to Hugh Hewitt on the radio. He was adamant that the exit polls were BS, and I was thinking it was Hewitt who was probably BSing me because he's so partisan. When I got home and watch it all unfold, Hewitt was right.

But I'm seeing more depressed people at Republican web sites right now than at Democrat.

My area uses lots of polling places, so it's really hard to tell, much less extrapolate from, my experience at my polling place. But I will say that the place I always vote (and I vote in all of them) was definitely busier than usual--not what I would call "busy," mind you, in comparison from what I see on TV or what I've seen elsewhere, but definitely busier. There's never a line. There was a small one today. I was #316 at about 12:40 this afternoon, which isn't particularly impressive, of course. But remember, I pointed out that it's a small polling place and never crowded. More to the point, I don't ever remember being that high up in the count, not even in 2008, at that time of day. So, who knows? I spoke briefly with the poll observers, and they said the poll place was busier than usual, that voting had been steady all morning, and that there had been only one, approximately 10-minute period when the place was empty. (It's not unusual for that polling place to have empty periods--I've hit those on a number of occasions over the years.)

The other thing is, I can only recall personally seeing maybe one or two provisional votes being cast there over almost the last decade (before that, I wasn't assigned to that particular polling place). Today, in just the relatively brief time I was there, there were four or five. And, in addition, there were a number of people registering to vote on the spot, which I have seen before, but that line was, relatively speaking to previous times, a bit longer and therefore moving more slowly.

I have no idea what any of that means, much less portends, if indeed any of it means or portends anything at all. Just reporting in, so to speak.

I'm going to pop the top on the first beer of the night at 7 p.m. when the first polls close. It should become apparent within a couple of hours whether I'm celebrating taking our country back or drowning my sorrows at the folly of my countrymen.

Right before the US polls begin to close I'm sticking with my first prediction months ago, that Obama will win the electoral college but Romney will win the popular vote. It will be short-term chaos, but the good news is that perhaps it will finally provoke reform of an antiquated system that focuses far too much attention on just a few states.Garry Kasparov

Yet everyone black and white were warm and cordial to each other. This is not an act. Southerners, the best of them, the kind who will stand two hours in line to vote, are very good people. They have manners.

I once heard a generalization about race attiudes that I find amusing

"White conservative Southerners dislike blacks in general, but love the ones they know"

"White Liberal Northerners like blacks in general, but hate the ones they know"

I think the centrist idea is that results of elections shouldn't matter so much. But the consequences have even ratcheted up. There was not a huge difference between HW Bush and Clinton or W and Gore. In 2004, the left felt the stakes were high and in 2012 the right feels the same. One of the best arguments for a more limited federal government is that these types of intense disagreements should not become nationalized. No one gave a shit when Mass imposed a health care mandate on its citizens or how much taxes the state and city of NY charges its residents or spends on welfare programs. Texas and New York have different models. But where do the losers get to hide when it's all ratcheted to the federal level.

It's really just a game of who wins OH, VA and FL. We just pretend like the other states matter. Unless something ridiculous happens (like Romney some how winning MI or PA), that's what it comes down to.

Everyone is walking with determination. Except me. It's like a Star Trek episode where the team speeds up so much that it seems the crew became stationary, and to the people in the slow phase, the fast-phase people appeared to zip around like flies, almost disappear completely. That was me. everyone zipping around like flies. Passing me up all over the place like I'm dawdling. In that buzzing around, out on the street in the sun as I'm negotiating cracks in the pavement, someone recognized me and said "Hi."

"Oh hi. I didn't recognize you."

"Yeah sunglasses. I'm on the way to the shop." I didn't recognize him until he spoke and even then I still assumed he was an advocate stopping to urge me to vote, but he wasn't, I just thought it, even after I recognized the voice and as he went bouncing off I still thought, "Jeeze, get this guy, totally obsessed about voting. They're everywhere." Yeah. Everywhere in my mind.

edutcher: I'm just an independent observer of this election. I browsed some comments sections of right wing and left wing sites. Saw comments from right wingers along the lines of "Am I witnessing the end of America?" People are such election drama queens. I turned on Obama a couple months back, so I'm not rooting for either. I'm really just curious who will prove to have been more accurate in the days leading up to the election.

And, again, I thought Althouse made a prediction that if it's super close it would favor Obama. We shall see.

I got a sixer of Great Lakes Brewing's Christmas Ale (which is FANTASTIC). Also got a 500ml tetra pak of Black Box Pinot Grigio. I don't know who will win, but I'm pretty sure I'll be drunk when I find out.

Knowing what we do about enthusiasm, a blowout is more likely to be in Romney's direction, but there is nothing about a close outcome that favors either candidate. By definition, that's what a close race means, unless one guy is holding back to avoid running up the score. I don't think that's an issue here.

It would be cool to have Romney go on TV about 8:30 and ask people to vote for Obama just to keep it close. That would be very magnanimous, especially considering the beating Obama is gonna take on Benghazi. No need to pile on now.

Do you like beer? Oh, hell, who doesn't. Leinenkugel has a new bunch of beer called the Big Eddy series. Dark beer, 8.5% alcohol. Right now, their new beer is called Baltic Porter. This is not for women and children.

The Christmas Ale has kind of a unique taste from honey. I only really love two of their beers, the Christmas Ale and the Dortmunder Gold. The Christmas Ale is a huge phenomenon in Cleveland. It's a news event when they announce when they'll tap it each fall.

Does anyone know what a pineapple seeds look like? In all my years of pineapple eating I don't think I've ever noticed their seeds. But I'm eating pineapple slices that I cut yesterday while I wait for votes to trickle in (pineapples are the official food of teetotalers) and I'm noticing these small brown things mixed in. I have a mouse running around the kitchen and I'm afraid it's mouse poop. But they're too small to be mouse poop, I think. I don't know.

Wouldn't that be gross if they are mouse poops? I keep eating the pineapple slices, "seeds" and all, and I'm not repulsed by the thought enough to stop eating.

This is astonishingly boring. Watching the results come in, I mean. Not the pineapple. I'm drinking water to spice things up, otherwise this election watching would put me to sleep. I wish I had a TV because TV networks know how to spice up the results. It's so exciting with all the flashy graphics and austere talking heads. Then some bubbly idiot comes on because the networks have to prove that young, attractive women can be smart, too. Why do they use retards to try to prove that point?

I did some work at the polls today in WI. Forget voter ID -- I'd be satisfied if every existing voter and all the new registrants were required to wear pants that did not sag well below the midline of both buttcheeks.

One new voter on the north side of Milwaukee had a leather jacket with "VENGEANCE" in big red letters across the back. (Who says that vote for revenge does not have a target audience?) He swore he was not a felon, said he lived where the note from home said he lived, and bingo, "We have a newwwww voter!" complete with the ringing of a cowbell and cheers from the election workers.

Then mom "assisted" junior with his ballot and zing! into the machine it went. But for whom remains a mystery.

I propose a poll: Do pineapples have seeds? Yes / No / Undecided. How strongly do you agree with the following statement: "Pineapple seeds are difficult to distinguish from mouse droppings." Very likely / Somewhat likely / Not sure / Unlikely / Very unlikely.

Pineapples are seedless because they are grown in fields of one variety, and they are self infertile, meaning they require cross-pollination to set seed. With cross pollination, they would produce seeded fruit.

http://www.madsci.org/posts/archives/2002-04/1020215334.Ag.r.html

So, whether you get seeds in your pinepples really depends on how you grow your pineapple trees.

I asked Siri and she passed the buck to Google. Nobody was in agreement.

So, whether you get seeds in your pinepples really depends on how you grow your pineapple trees.

I didn't grow the pineapple--and even if I did, I didn't. The pineapple got to my fridge on the roads, etc., tax dollars. Cogent.

I LOLed at the "pineapples are mammals" remark. It takes a lot to get me to LOL but I did. Actually I lied. I LOL from the moment I sit down to comment to the moment I decide it's time for porn. Oh, wow, is it 6:22 already?