Stuff

YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph shows no change at all since their last poll – support remains at CON 41%(nc), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 17%(nc).

As a whole the polls really are looking very static; after a period of volatility things seem to have settled down to a Tory lead of between 10 and 12 points (which is, incidentally, almost exactly the lead they would need to get an overall majority on an uniform swing from 2005).

61 Responses to “No change from YouGov”

Yes but as I said she had the impetus of a new-broom election win (rather than a large majority – that was Tony Blair’s advantage). I don’t see that degree of enthusiasm now for a change of government per se. MT was following an exhausted Labour government that had lost control of the agenda entirely, had had to go to the IMF for a bail-out and was facing “crisis, what crisis” open war with the public sector unions.

Having got it wrong about the comparative content of Etonians, you now appear to have switched , for some bizarre reason to Oxbridge content as a measure of diversity!!-and you couldn’t even get that right.

Of the members of Major’s administration listed on his website, 72% were Oxbridge.
Of the members of Cameron’s current Shadow Cabinet 52% were Oxbridge

Though why you should consider that an Oxbridge education militates against diversity is beyond me-they will take all sorts these days I understand.

Maybe your a bit behind the times Dean, as your yearning for John Major days would indicate.
Tell me Dean-do you prefer underpants outside or inside-or maybe over your head?

For myself, thank goodness that the absence of John Major is linked with the absence of Theresa Gorman -they deserved each other-thank God they are both gone.

JohnTT @3.33pm-thanks.
Agree with your last para-it’s weird.Like being in the Doldrums-though I understand sudden violent changes of weather can occur there!

“Could I ask contributors to consider some wider historical facts e. g the capacity of governing parties to recover in the polls (even if they dont win) eg 1964, 1970, 1974 and again in 1979. Look at how governments in more recent times can be re-elected when economic indicators seem dire 1983,87 & 92.”

I am also glad that you provided me with evidence to support my suspicion. I’m still waiting for your evidence to justify your suspicion of “a hidden Labour vote” (Unless you can use your local knowledge to find the Glenrothes by-election marked register. There is certainly a well-hidden vote there – but by hiding the voting record this stops the SNP investigating possible electoral fraud so I doubt that it will emerge through the efforts of Labour supporters.)

Angusa queried the budget date with suspicion. Ever since this was first announced I have been of the view that it was part of a strategy for a 4 June election. I don’t think that was dreamt up by Brown, but the intent would appear to be to announce a give-away budget, then dissolve parliament before the figures could be scrutinised properly.

However, I think this plan has already run into two problems, so we will have to wait until 2010.

Firstly, the G20 is not going according to plan with a major rift having opened between Europe on one side and Brown/Obama on the other. To make matters worse, the gloss is coming off Obama’s administration in the US so fast the expected reflected glory is going to be a bit tarnished.

Secondly, Darling and King have scuppered any prospect of a give-away budget. I predict some stormy cabinet meetings next month, but Brown knows he cannot afford to lose Darling, so the chances are that the budget will end up being a cross between a damp squib and a horror story.

As to whether Cameron should be worried to be only 10% ahead….no, for a raft of reasons.

As things stand, I suspect taht the headline figures will remain static for a few more weeks, then we will hit turbulence post budget and then all the way to polling day .. on 4 June.. after which, the Con lead will resume an upward trend – the sharpness and steadiness of which will depend on the Euro results and how the government react to them.

I think this polls lends credence to those of us who consider the most likely outcome of the election next year will be Conservative win with smallish majority. ie 20-30 or so. Or possibly minority Conservative government if the incumbent recovers a little.

Unless the current government makes another big gaffe like the 10p tax band just before the next GE, I can’t see the huge Conservative majority that appears on the predictor. It just seems too many seats in one go, even with a worn out and unpopular government like this one.

There is an increasing stream of newspaper adverts for NS&I fronted by well known personalities-Bob Geldof this morning, after Alan Sugar’s usual ones.

If the Government are this desperate to attract savings from a public, who have recently increased their savings ratio threefold ,one wonders what on earth is the point of fiscal stimuli aimed at increasing consumer spending.

Yes there does seem to be a lot of government advertising-though I don’t see any political angle to NS&I adverts.

To be honest, the stuff about Gilts sale failure was a non-story. An auction the following day ( I think) was oversubscribed-but demand was for long dated indexed as I understand it-perhaps an indication that specialists see UK inflation as the major problem going forward , rather than it’s solvency.

Ordinary people are de-leveraging like crazy at present-as are Banks which is why bank credit is so scarce.

There seems to be a gulf a mile wide between Brown’s prescription of fiscal stimuli ( though UK’s was pathetically small & ineffective), and the reaction of people in the real world, which is to reduce their debt.

I think the stasis in our Polls must , in some part, be due to people’s complete confusion about counter-recessionary policies…and of course their natural concentration on their own financial wellbeing, rather than the country at large.