Wednesday, November 27, 2013

For many years Iraq Body Count
called Iraq’s Ninewa province the deadliest per capita in the country. That was
because the governorate capital of Mosul was the main urban base for the
insurgency. Militants were able to play upon the internal divisions in the
province between Arabs and Kurds, and Sunni displeasure with the central
government to build up support. From 2009-2010 violence dropped in Ninewa as
people decided to try their hands at politics. Many now consider that a wasted
effort. Today the insurgency has made a comeback in the province. The result is
that Ninewa is once again one of the most dangerous places in Iraq.

January 2013 saw a low level of
violence in Ninewa compared to the rest of the year. There were a total of 65
reported security incidents for the month, 57 of which, 87%, were in Mosul.
Shootings, 34 total, were the most common form of attack, followed by bombings,
28. Violence in January mostly consisted of 1-3 people killed or wounded each
day with the main target being the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Of the 69
killed 39 were from the ISF, 56% of the total. Likewise 30 of the 57 wounded
were police and soldiers. Notables from the province were another prime victim.
January 1 the nephew of Speaker Osama Nujafi whose family is from Mosul was
assassinated. January 14 a sheikh from the Jabour tribe who was an
anti-government protest organizer was gunned down in Mosul. January 15 a
Dawa parliamentarian was killed by a sticky bomb attached to his car. January 17 the director of the Ninewa emergency police faced a roadside bomb in
Mosul. January 21 an official from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)
was hit by a roadside bomb. It is impossible to discern who was responsible
for all of these attacks. That’s because not only does Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)
operate in the province, but so does the Baathist Naqshibandi and Ansar
al-Islam amongst others. Those and others would quickly make their presence
felt in the following months as January had the lowest levels of violence for
the year.

Violence In January 2013

Totals

Averages/

%
Of Total

# Of Attacks

65

2.09 per day

Top Location/# of Attacks

Mosul 57

Main Type of Attack

Gunfire 34

# Of Bombings

28

# Killed

69

2.22 per day

ISF Killed

39

56%

Civilians Killed

30

44%

# Wounded

57

100%

ISF Wounded

30

52%

Civilians Wounded

27

48%

The number of security incidents
was slightly up in February, but they took a far higher toll. There were 78
attacks, 79% of which, 62, were in Mosul. 113 people were killed as a result.
That was a huge jump from an average of 2.22 deaths per day in January to 4.03
in February. Again, notables and the ISF were the main targets. February 5 a
member of the provincial council was shot and wounded. The next day a roadside
bomb hit another councilman. February 10 a roadside bomb struck Speaker
Nujafi’s motorcade south of Mosul. February 12 the commander of the Ninewa
police was struck by an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) in Mosul. February 16 a general was killed by a suicide bomber in Mosul. To top
things off there was an assault upon the headquarters of the 26th
Brigade of the 2nd Army Division in central Mosul by a suicide car bomber that left 9 soldiers dead and 15 more wounded. February saw the
number of fatalities almost double. That was despite the number of attacks
staying almost the same at 2.09 per day in January to 2.78 the next month.
Still just over three-quarter of the attacks were shootings showing that
violence remained at a low level overall.

Violence In February 2013

Totals

Averages/

%
Of Total

# Of Attacks

78

2.78 per day

Top Location/# of Attacks

Mosul 62

79%

Main Type of Attack

Gunfire 48

# Of Bombings

32

# Killed

113

4.03 per day

ISF Killed

58

51%

Civilians Killed

55

49%

# Wounded

65

100%

ISF Wounded

51

78%

Civilians Wounded

14

22%

March saw another progression in
insurgent activity. There were a total of 100 incidents averaging out to 3.22
per day. 73 of those attacks were in Mosul, which remained the focus for
militants. The number of deaths actually went down from 113 in February to 102
in March. The real change was in tactics as the number of bombings increased
from 28 in January to 32 in February jumping to 50 in March. For instance, a suicide bomber attacked a restaurant full of ISF killing 5 police and wounding
eight others on March 19, and the next day a sticky bomb was attached to
the car of a candidate for the provincial elections. There was also a wave
of assassination attempts. March 7 an army general was killed in Mosul. March 11 a candidate was gunned down in Harmat, another on March 12,
and a third on March 16. March 20 a sheikh from the Shammar tribe was killed
in Mosul. Finally, March 27 insurgents blocked off a road and stopped a
bus transporting Iraqi soldiers killing one and wounding eight. By the end
of the month 60 ISF members had died and 67 wounded. The increase in attacks
was a bad sign for Ninewa, as violence would only increase in the next few
months. March showed that militants were ready to pick up the pace of their operations
with more sophisticated attacks with deadlier consequences.

Violence In March 2013

Totals

Averages/

%
Of Total

# Of Attacks

100

3.22 per day

Top Location/# of Attacks

Mosul 73

73%

Main Type of Attack

Gunfire 54

# Of Bombings

50

# Killed

102

3.29 per day

ISF Killed

60

58%

Civilians Killed

40

41%

# Wounded

119

100%

ISF Wounded

67

56%

Civilians Wounded

52

44%

Mid-April saw a security crisis
develop. After government forces raided the Hawija protest site in Tamim heavy
fighting broke out in Mosul. The shooting started after a mosque called for an uprising against the government. On April 25 31 insurgents and 10
police were killed as a result. The Kurdish Peshmerga Ministry said that
the army then evacuated several areas in the province out of fear of being
attacked creating a security vacuum. Other notable incidents were a
suicide car bombing of an army base that wounded eight soldiers on April 4. April 7 a roadside bomb went off against the director of the Ninewa police
regiments in Qayara. April 10 a candidate was wounded by a sticky bomb in
Mosul. April 14 a funeral in Hamamal Aleel was bombed killing six police
and wounding 13 more. April 15 a candidate’s house was blown up in Mosul. April 16 Governor Atheel Nujafi’s convoy was hit by a roadside bomb in
Qayara. Despite the pitched battles between the ISF and insurgents
following Hawija violence was actually down in April. There were 74 security
incidents averaging out to 2.46 per day compared to 3.22 the previous month. In
the end 85 people were killed. That averaged out to 2.83 killed per day down
from 3.29 the previous month and 4.03 in February. Of the fatalities, 61 were
from the ISF, 71% of the total, and 75 were wounded, 79%. Those were the
highest rates seen during the year up to that point. April turned out to be the
calm before the storm.

Violence In April 2013

Totals

Averages/

%
Of Total

# Of Attacks

74

2.46 per day

Top Location/# of Attacks

Mosul 55

74%

Main Type of Attack

Gunfire 41

# Of Bombings

29

# Killed

85

2.83 per day

ISF Killed

61

71%

Civilians Killed

23

29%

# Wounded

94

100%

ISF Wounded

75

79%

Civilians Wounded

19

21%

The real effect of Hawija was felt
in May. There were 110 attacks averaging out to 3.54 per day the highest
average yet seen. It was also the first time in 2013 when bombings, 58 total,
surpassed shootings, 50. The result was 128 killed or 4.12 per day, again the
highest rate up to then. Politicians were major targets. May 1 a candidate was
shot and killed in Mosul, and another on May 17 in Qayara. May 18 and 29 separate candidates were bombed as well, but with no one
hurt.May 9 an adviser to Governor
Nujafi ran into a roadside bomb in Mosul. May 20 a provincial council
member was similarly bombed. A new tactic was unveiled as well when three
houses belonging to members of the ISF were blown up on May 26. The rising
violence finally led to the central government to respond when the Defense
Ministry launched a major operating against Al Qaeda on May 28 that included
Ninewa and five other provinces. May marked a turning point in the
security situation. Not only did the average number of attacks and deaths jump,
but also more and more bombs were being used. That would be the trend for the
rest of the year.

Violence In May 2013

Totals

Averages/

%
Of Total

# Of Attacks

110

3.54 per day

Top Location/# of Attacks

Mosul 89

80%

Main Type of Attack

Bombings 58

# Of Bombings

58

# Killed

128

4.12 per day

ISF Killed

80

62%

Civilians Killed

48

38%

# Wounded

182

100%

ISF Wounded

116

63%

Civilians Wounded

66

37%

In June the insurgency began going
after the general populace rather than focusing so much on the security forces.
There were 98 attacks and 122 deaths for an average of 3.26 per day and 4.06
per day respectively, just about the same as May. Again bombings, 53 for the
month, superseded shootings, 41, as the main form of attack. The real
difference was that the ISF only accounted for 50% of deaths, 61, and 46% of
wounded, 105, when before that percentage had ranged from 50-70% of the total.
On June 24 for instance, a café in Mosul was bombed resulting in 4 deaths and
21 wounded, and another one south of Mosul was hit the next day leaving
the same number of casualties. Insurgents have been demanding protection
money from these types of businesses so these attacks might have been for not
paying. The government proved incapable of stopping these incidents. In the
middle of the month 6,000 troops were deployed in Ninewa and Anbar along the
Syrian and Jordanian borders to prepare for provincial elections. Since
the vast majority of attacks take place in and around Mosul, which is at the
center of the province sending forces to the border was a waste of resources.
Al Qaeda and others do cross back and forth into Syria, but their base of operations
is squarely focused in Mosul and its environs. This mistake would be repeated
throughout the rest of the year.

Violence In June 2013

Totals

Averages/

%
Of Total

# Of Attacks

98

3.26 per day

Top Location/# of Attacks

Mosul 68

Main Type of Attack

Bombings 53

# Of Bombings

53

# Killed

122

4.06 per day

ISF Killed

61

50%

Civilians Killed

61

50%

# Wounded

228

100%

ISF Wounded

105

46%

Civilians Wounded

123

54%

The insurgency became even
deadlier in July. There were 101 reported security incidents for a total of
3.25 per day, almost the exact same rate as June. Those left 156 people dead
for an average of 5.03 per day, which was a new high. The ISF accounted for 61%
of fatalities, 96 total, but only 44% of the wounded, 100. July 3 an army base
was hit be a suicide car bomber leaving 4 soldiers dead, and 28 wounded, 21 of
which were soldiers. July 10 the commander of the Ninewa Operations
Command escaped a suicide car bomb. July 14 a roadside bomb went off while
the Ninewa police commander was passing by. July 20 a military base in
Mosul was hit by a suicide bomber that killed one and wounded 25. July 27 a police director was shot in Qayara and a policeman’s house was bombed there as well. There were also the usual terrorist attacks upon the
population. July 12 three car bombs in and around Mosul went off
leaving 21 dead and 24 wounded. July 17 a café was hit again with three dead
and 21 wounded, and another one was bombed on July 31 with 1 fatality and
8 wounded. At the end of the month AQI also announced its new Soldiers’ Harvest campaign that was aimed at degrading the Iraqi security forces and
establishing control of territory. Al Qaeda already had bases in parts of
Ninewa, and had been hitting the ISF since the beginning of the year. It would
now increase those efforts in the coming months.

Violence In July 2013

Totals

Averages/

%
Of Total

# Of Attacks

101

3.25 per day

Top Location/# of Attacks

Mosul 73

72%

Main Type of Attack

Bombings 52

# Of Bombings

52

# Killed

156

5.03 per day

ISF Killed

96

61%

Civilians Killed

60

39%

# Wounded

226

100%

ISF Wounded

100

44%

Civilians Wounded

126

56%

Despite Soldiers’ Harvest August
was not much different from July. There were 107 attacks for 3.45 per day
resulting in 128 deaths or 4.12 per day, a decrease from the previous month.
One reason for the slight decline might have been the government’s Revenge of the Martyrs campaign that was announced on August 1. AQI on the other hand
launched a series of operations south of Mosul aimed at the Baghdad-Mosul
highway, which were meant to cut the supply lines between the capital and the
ISF forces in Ninewa. It also continued to blow up the houses of policemen with
two destroyed on August 2, and six more on August 12 all in Qayara. In response the ISF carried out a series of raids and arrests claiming 124
people had been picked up including several AQI leaders, and the discovery a
car bomb factory. The best that could be said was that the Revenge of the
Martyrs and Soldiers’ Harvest cancelled each other out in Ninewa resulting in
no real surge in violence for the month. That did not last long.

Violence In August 2013

Totals

Averages/

%
Of Total

# Of Attacks

107

3.45 per day

Top Location/# of Attacks

Mosul 83

77%

Main Type of Attack

Bombings 68

# Of Bombings

68

# Killed

128

4.12 per day

ISF Killed

85

66%

Civilians Killed

41

34%

# Wounded

150

100%

ISF Wounded

59

39%

Civilians Wounded

89

61%

September saw the number of dead
and wounded in the province surge. There were 113 attacks for an average of
3.76 per day, but the results were far more deadlier. There were 192 killed,
6.4 per day up from 4.12 in August, and 236 wounded an increase from August’s
150. On September 11 Al Qaeda announced the creation of an operations command
in Ninewa stretching from the western desert regions to the Syrian border to
the center of the province. The ISF increased its operations in the Jazeera
desert in response and claimed to have found several weapons caches. A second
operation along the Syrian border was started as well. Both areas were so large
the security forces only had marginal success. Not only that, but 75% of the
attacks were in Mosul while the army and police were running around in the
deserts. A former governor’s house was blown up in Mosul on September 5. September 16 22 houses belonging to police officers were detonated in Qayara, four more in Mosul on September 22, and two more in Qayara on
September 23. The house of a parliamentarian was bombed on September 21. The Shabak community in Mosul was targeted as well with a funeral being
hit by a suicide bomber on September 14 that killed 15 and wounded 20. Some Shabaks fled the area afterward. Finally, four neighborhood
mayors were assassinated in Mosul leading 18 to resign afterward. Despite the
government crackdown the insurgency proved resilient in Ninewa and were able to
increase their attacks and murdered more people while disrupting the local
administration in Mosul.

Violence In September 2013

Totals

Averages/

%
Of Total

# Of Attacks

113

3.76 per day

Top Location/# of Attacks

Mosul 85

75%

Main Type of Attack

Bombings 91

# Of Bombings

91

# Killed

192

6.40 per day

ISF Killed

98

51%

Civilians Killed

94

49%

# Wounded

236

100%

ISF Wounded

95

40%

Civilians Wounded

141

60%

In October the security forces
announced more operations, while the insurgency responded with greater
efficiency. Chief of Staff of the Army General Zebari met with Governor Nujafi
and local ISF commanders to discuss how security could be better coordinated. Federal Police carried out a number of raids south of Mosul finding an IED
and car bomb factory, while the Jazeera and Badeya Operations Command
claimed to have found 42 vehicles in the Jazeera region that were going to be
used for terrorist attacks. Those might have accounted for the decrease in
attacks from 113 in September to 89 in October. However there were 218 deaths,
the highest amount for any month in the year for an average of 7.03 per day.
There were also 339 wounded up from 236 the previous month. The death and
destruction was mostly the result of 53 bombings. Again, in the battle between
the government and insurgents, the latter maintained the upper hand.

Violence In October 2013

Totals

Averages/

%
Of Total

# Of Attacks

89

2.87 per day

Top Location/# of Attacks

Mosul 74

83%

Main Type of Attack

Bombings 53

# Of Bombings

53

# Killed

218

7.03 per day

ISF Killed

81

37%

Civilians Killed

137

63%

# Wounded

339

100%

ISF Wounded

92

27%

Civilians Wounded

247

73%

Ninewa has once again become a
major base of operations for insurgent groups. They have killed politicians,
sheikhs, police, soldiers, and average citizens almost at will nearly every day
since the beginning of the year. In the last few months the government has
launched several operations in the governorate, but these have failed to
stabilize things. Instead the number of bombings has increased, and so have the
number of casualties. It looks like Ninewa is going to remain a militant
stronghold for the foreseeable future as a result.

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. I have written for the Jamestown Foundation, Tom Ricks’ Best Defense at Foreign Policy and the Daily Beast, and was responsible for a chapter in the book Volatile Landscape: Iraq And Its Insurgent Movements. My work has been published in Iraq via NRT, AK News, Al-Mada, Sotaliraq, All Iraq News, and Ur News all in Iraq. I was interviewed on BBC Radio 5, Radio Sputnik, CCTV and TRT World News TV, and have appeared in CNN, the Christian Science Monitor, The National, Columbia Journalism Review, Mother Jones, PBS’ Frontline, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for the Study of War, Radio Free Iraq, Rudaw, and others. I have also been cited in Iraq From war To A New Authoritarianism by Toby Dodge, Imagining the Nation Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-Political Conflict in Iraq by Harith al-Qarawee, ISIS Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassahn, The Rise of the Islamic State by Patrick Cocburn, and others. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com