"The real game is only just
beginning, but it will have a high mortality rate for those who don't
get it," said Dwayne Walker, chief executive of fast-growing TechWave, which builds and runs
online stores, distributes software, and sells electronic distribution
systems to resellers.

"Net resellers will either get really big or die or differentiate," said
William Headapohl, chief operating officer of BuyDirect, a software distribution
service recently spun off by CNET: The Computer Network, which retains
an 19 percent ownership. (CNET is the publisher of NEWS.COM.)

Software has been touted as the most logical product to be sold on the
Net for several years, but the business hasn't taken off. Bullish
executives from online software stores said yesterday
that they see the next 12 months as a pivotal time, speaking at an
online commerce conference sponsored by Global Touch.

In the next year, more big software publishers will sell directly to
customers and new competitors will surge into the market, but only a few
strong brand names--a key factor to success--will emerge, those bullish execs say.
All think, or at least hope, the online software revolution is near.

"In 10 years, all software will be sold online," declared Software.net chief executive Mark
Breier, who left a senior management job at Amazon.com this spring to join
Software.net, which went public last month. His ambition: become the
world's largest software retailer--and not just online.

"Market share will never be this cheap again," predicted Vincent
Pluvinage, CEO of technology supplier Preview Systems, underscoring
the strategic importance of the next year.

"Every major software publisher will have a direct sales component on
their Web site within the next year," Walker declared, predicting
massive channel conflict as publishers, resellers, distributors, and
others all try to sell to end customers.

But Breier, in a minority view, thinks the percentage of software sold
directly by publishers won't outstrip the reseller channel.

"People will buy more software and the pie will be bigger, but the
direct share won't grow because customers want selection [that they
can't get from a single publisher]," the Software.net CEO said.

A flood of new resellers coming into the Internet market--search engine
destination sites, catalog companies, retailers from the
brick-and-mortar world, and so on--will increase the importance for building a
strong brand name, panelists agreed.

"Only a few large players will dominate the brand wars," said Headapohl,
who argued the online software stores will sacrifice profits to grab
market share.