James Kirkup is The Telegraph's Executive Editor (Politics). He was previously the Telegraph's Political Editor and has worked at Westminster since 2001.

Evening Briefing: A rock and a hard place

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority proposed increasing MPs’ pay by more than 9 per cent, to £74,000 in 2015. The suggestion, coming as the squeeze on living standards continues, caused public anger. That led several politicians to say they would refuse to accept the money: Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband and Michael Gove have all said they’d decline it. But notably, David Cameron and George Osborne refused to say if they too would refuse the cash. See below for more. And look at Matthew Holehouse’s graph setting this in context. And read Michael Deacon’s essential sketch.

READ MY LIPS

George Osborne said that a Conservative government elected in 2015 would complete its plans for reducing deficit entirely through cuts in spending. That means no increases in taxation beyond those already announced. The Chancellor’s pledge is an attempt to draw another dividing line between his party and Labour for the election. Economists suggest that completing the fiscal consolidation solely using cuts will mean far-reaching changes in the shape of the public sector, meaning that delivering on the promise would make that Tory government a truly radical one. But bold promises can also be a hostage to fortune.

Just ask George H W Bush, whose promise of “No New Taxes” helped make him a one-term president. The Chancellor has been in remarkably cheery form today, telling the Treasury Select Committee that opposition to his economic agenda is crumbling. He then went on to a lunch with Westminster journalists, where made similar claims for his political agenda, saying he has shifted the centre ground of politics into the Tory territory of welfare cuts and a smaller State. He also cracked some good jokes, some of them at his own expense. (The best was that he only ordered his infamous “posh” Byron burger “because McDonald’s had run out of McLobster”.) The bullish performance caps weeks of rising Tory spirits. If it wasn’t for that pesky fixed-term parliaments thing, hacks and politicos could spend the summer speculating about a snap general election in the autumn or spring 2014. Never mind: we’ll just have to find something else to occupy our time.

CHILLAXING TIME

Nick Clegg revealed on LBC that he and David Cameron will take their summer holidays at the same time again this year. That may lead to questions about who’s running the country, questions Mr Clegg rightly dismissed. After all, the PM doesn’t “run the country”. He chairs the Cabinet. If simultaneous Clegg and Cameron holidays help challenge the misplaced notion that Britain has a presidential executive, their chillaxing will do us all a favour.

REPEAT OFFENDERS

Chris Grayling, the Justice Secretary, asked the Serious Fraud Office to investigate G4S and Serco, major Government contractors. The move came after a review found the Government had been overcharged by tens of millions of pounds for the electronic tagging and monitoring of offenders. Mr Grayling told MPs that civil servants have been aware of problems with some contracts since 2008 but apparently failed to act. The relationship between ministers and officials, already strained in some parts of Whitehall, is fraying.

OH, VICKY

Prosecutors said they will charge Denis Macshane, a former Labour MP, with false accounting over his expenses claims. The Crown Prosecution Service said there was “sufficient evidence” to proceed against Mr Macshane for allegedly faking receipts. Mr Macshane, who left Parliament last year, is currently in a relationship with Vicky Pryce, the former wife of Chris Huhne, another former MP.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

On the face of it, it’s what Americans would call a no-brainer. Hard-pressed voters hate the idea of a fat pay rise for MPs, so surely any politician would jump to respond to public opinion and promise not to take such a raise? Nick Clegg has done it. Ed Miliband has done it. Michael Gove has done it.

But not David Cameron. The PM and his aides have evaded the question, hiding behind the fact that the pay proposals are not yet finalised. And just in case anyone was in any doubt that this is the considered position of Tory high command, George Osborne took the same stance when questioned over lunch today.

Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne are treading cautiously on pay because they know how strongly many Conservative MPs feel about the issue. Though few will say so publicly, many believe a raise is justified. They also fear that if party leaders get into a Dutch auction of hair-shirt promises, they will suffer financial pain that their wealthier front-bench colleagues can largely shrug off.

One scenario I’ve heard discussed by MPs of all parties today involves MPs being pressured into refusing the pay rise, but still suffering the cuts in pension contributions and other perks that Ipsa hopes will sweeten the pill for voters.

Among old Tory MPs in particular, the pension cuts are a cause for grave concern; some say they would respond by seeking (more) income from sources outside Parliament, something that would hamper Mr Cameron’s ability to defend against Labour attacks on that front.

Mr Cameron’s caution on pay is telling. It shows that, despite the recent outbreak of happiness in the party, relations between the Tory troops and their officer class remain tense.

That’s worth remembering when Mr Cameron gets around to his reshuffle later this summer, since every shuffle leaves some members disappointed and angry. The Prime Minister’s personal position is currently better than it’s been for a while, but his party is still placing limits on his room for manoeuvre.