Rookies are eternally the shiny new objects in the NFL, but interest in them, particularly for first-round picks, is often out of proportion to their actual on-field production. By contrast, the opposite dynamic is frequently the case in fantasy football, where uncertainty over how large a role a given rookie might have and how well he might perform in it can cause him to slip in drafts.

As such, rookies can present very nice draft values, for those with the nerve to select them over more proven commodities. Of course, they shouldn’t be selected any higher than makes sense, so here is a guide to when drafters should think about taking the plunge on the top first-year players. For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume a 12-team league with PPR scoring.

Running Back

Saquon Barkley, Giants: First round

I am on board with the real draft’s No. 2 overall pick going as high as sixth in fantasy drafts, and possibly even higher in .5-PPR and standard formats. He should be in store for 300 touches.

Derrius Guice, Redskins: Fourth round

The hard-charging back is set for early-down and short-yardage work, with some receiving upside, in a good offense.

Ronald Jones, Buccaneers: Fifth round

One the more difficult players to forecast, Jones is likely to lead a committee and offers big-play ability.

Sony Michel, Patriots: Fifth round

We know New England loves to use a committee at RB, and while Michel has stiff competition for touches in Rex Burkhead and James White, there should be plenty of work to go around in a Tom Brady-led attack.

Rashaad Penny, Seahawks: Sixth round

Ever-upbeat Pete Carroll’s effusive praise for Chris Carson is less of a concern than Seattle’s general inability to run the ball.

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