Independents Fade as Election Nears

By Peter Brown

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is a former White House correspondent with two decades of experience covering Washington government and politics. Click here for Mr. Brown’s full bio.

Independent and third-party candidates for high political office are like many varieties of flowers. They bloom in the spring and die in October when conditions become much less hospitable.

From Florida to New England – where the hopes of those who want to see a third political party or independent force give the Democrats and Republicans a run for their money – this long-established pattern has shown up again in the final month of the 2010 campaign.

In Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist, who ran for the U.S. Senate as an independent when it became clear he could not win the Republican nomination, had held a lead in the polls over much of the spring and summer. Now, he finds himself trailing by double digits.

In Massachusetts, Tim Cahill, the state treasurer, was a Democrat who turned independent to run for governor. He had been competitive in the three-way race for governor earlier in the year, but now finds his chances evaporating.

In Maine and Rhode Island, independent candidates are also in the governors’ races. But there, too, the chances for a non-Democratic or non-Republican governor seem to be fading. Eliot Cutler, a former aide to President Bill Clinton, is filling the role of independent candidate for governor in Maine, while former Republican U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee is running as an independent in Little Rhody, where his chances of winning are perhaps the best of any independent around the country. That doesn’t count Alaska, where the situation is unclear after Sen. Lisa Murkowski lost the GOP primary for renomination and is running a write-in campaign for her seat.

Also in a special category is the Colorado governor’s race. Tom Tancredo, a former Republican congressman, jumped into the race as a third-party candidate after the GOP primary in August nominated a political newcomer, Dan Maes. The Democratic nominee, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, retains the lead but a recent poll had Mr. Tancredo curtting the margin to single digits.

Tea Partiers Back GOP

To be clear, the tea party movement has been a major factor this election year, but generally is not running candidates for major offices against the GOP or Democrats. For the most part, the tea party folks seem to be backing Republican candidates in the general election.

Although critics argue the Tea Party has forced the GOP to nominate candidates who might not be electable, its role in November, when it hopes to turn out large numbers of anti-Obama voters, is likely to be a help, not a hindrance, to the GOP.

Of course, history does show that some independents or third-party candidates can win major statewide office. Jesse Ventura was the last one. The former pro wrestler was elected governor of Minnesota in 1998 and served one term. Maine elected independent Angus King governor in 1996 and again in 2000.

Bernard Sanders and Joe Lieberman are sitting U.S. senators elected as third-party candidates, but both are special stories. Sen. Sanders, a former socialist, had the backing of Vermont’s Democrats when he was elected. And Sen. Lieberman, an 18-year incumbent, lost the Democratic primary in 2006 but won his fourth term with the tacit help of a Republican Party that preferred him to a more liberal Democrat. Both men caucus with the Democrats in the Senate.

There are a number of reasons why independents historically fade as the election enters the home stretch. The Democrats and Republicans have infrastructures that help their nominees raise money, organize and turn out voters, and arrange speaking appearances.

Independent candidates who can finance their campaigns out of their own pockets have a big edge, obviously. But the lesson of 2010 is that “self-funders” can use their cash to win the major party nominations so they don’t need to run as independents.

Crist Is Now a Long Shot

Of all the independent candidates, Mr. Crist in Florida might have seemed the strongest. He was the sitting governor with very high job-approval ratings and a fund-raising network somewhat independent of the Republican hierarchy. But the reason why he could not win the GOP nomination in a primary is the same reason why challenger Marco Rubio leads him in the general election: Once Mr. Crist left the Republican Party, Republican voters left him because they saw him as insufficiently conservative. Mr. Crist’s hopes of winning enough Democratic votes to triumph seems, at this point, to be a long shot.

In Massachusetts, Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick and Republican Charlie Baker are battling it out. Things have gotten so bad for Mr. Cahill that his own running mate decided to toss in the towel and endorse Mr. Baker. Mr. Cahill now barely breaks into double digits in the polls.

In Maine, state Senate President Libby Mitchell, looking to become the state’s first woman governor, faces Republican Paul LePage, who has been leading in the polls. Mr. Cutler has fallen to low double-digits and, barring a miraculous turnaround, seems headed for defeat.

Mr. Chafee, who lost his Senate seat in the national Democratic sweep in 2006, is the one independent who remains highly competitive. Polls have him narrowly trailing state Treasurer Frank Caprio, a Democrat. The Republican candidate, John Robitaille, is running third.

Some have suggested the sizable number of challengers to Democrats and Republicans this year might inspire a serious independent or third-party effort for president in 2012. Perhaps, but the evidence of this year’s campaign isn’t likely to provide impetus for such a run.

Comments (5 of 11)

how can anyone vote for charlie crist? he states on a national tv program that he wont mount a 3rd party challenge if he loses the primary. well that wasnt truthful. he was for the obamacare bill before he was against it. he's for mccain before he's for obama. he is the so "2-faced" that he gives politicians a "bad name" which is saying something. as far as meeks goes, he would be down 60 to 40% without crist in the race. rubio will run away with this race no matter what the other 2 do.

7:45 am October 25, 2010

Richard Allbritton, Miami wrote :

Governor Charlie Crist, do the right thing for the State of Florida and our Nation: Withdraw from the race for the United State Senate and support Representative Kendrick Meek. Otherwise, we are going to be burdened with State Representative Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate for the next six years. Unfortunately, Rubio will make a perfect fit with the Republican Party, whose policies have permanently downsized the middle class and mired the American economy in the swamp while engaged in a masterpiece of demagoguery.

Rubio: The reason the next generation will not be as well off as those in the past are primarily due to Republican Administrations starting with President Ronald Reagan. Furthermore, it will take decades to undo the damage inflicted on our Country by President George W. Bush.

As recently reported by the Miami Herald, the CEO of Wells Fargo Bank, John Stumpf asserted:

“Compared to the ones in the 1970s and '80s, this economic retreat brought big differences:

• A borrowing binge. In the boom days, households borrowed so aggressively, they're now unable or unwilling to spend the country back into prosperity. While cash-out refinancing was once the rage -- when borrowers took cash from banks in exchange for higher mortgages -- Wells Fargo is seeing ‘cash-in’ refinancing, as homeowners pay down their loans in order to lower mortgage payments.

• A declining manufacturing industry. While past recoveries gave the economy a quick boost as U.S. factories revved up to meet consumer demand, now those goods come from overseas. ‘We don't know how to recover in an economy that's highly service based,’ he said.

I would add to “We don’t know how to recover in an economy that’s highly service based …” especially when that service economy is onerously based on flimflamming customers.

About “now those goods come from overseas ...” Yes, and one of the main reason goods come from overseas is because for the past 30 years, we’ve been outsourcing manufacturing and services to other countries.

The wealthy, banks, and big corporations are overflowing with cash and they are not creating jobs. It’s illogical to think that cutting their taxes will create jobs. If that were so, what happened in 2007, 2008, and 2009? Even Bill Gates, Sr. and Warren Buffet say the wealthy should pay more taxes. The annual tax rate should be increased substantially for all singles income above $250,000 and $400,000 for couples.

Corporations creating jobs in America should be rewarded. Recently, a bill to accomplish this failed by one vote in the Senate. All Republicans voted against the bill. We don’t need another Republican in the U.S. Senate. ~richard allbritton, Miami, http://rallbritton.com

9:26 pm October 21, 2010

R B wrote :

Charlie Christ is a reasonable guy. I voted for Charlie.

7:23 pm October 21, 2010

Brent wrote :

We're stuck in a cycle of voting for members of parties that have turned on us. They have the power and the money, so we're given this illusionary choice. You want change and to turn the country the right way? Vote ONLY for Independents (or a Libertarian if an Independent is not available). They'll be forced to do a phenomenal job as the pressure will be on them, fix it all or show you are failures and wither away.

4:45 pm October 18, 2010

Mainer wrote :

Angus Kind was elected Governor of Maine in 1994 and 1998, not 1996 and 2000 as your article states. I don't have time to fact check the rest of your information, but in the future you should. Getting the dates right lends credibility to your story.

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Capital Journal is WSJ.com’s unique site for analysis of the political and policy maneuvering in Washington in the era of Barack Obama. It features the Capital Journal columns and occasional other postings by executive Washington editor Gerald F. Seib, and will house Political Wisdom, the Journal’s daily aggregation of the smartest political analysis from around the Internet. Also look for regular columns by Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute and occasional contributions from others.