One might think that low-wage workers and low-income families are the same. But data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that there is only a weak relationship between being a low-wage worker and being poor, for three reasons.

First, many low-wage workers are in higher-income families—workers who are not the primary breadwinners and often contribute a small share of their family's income. Second, some workers in poor families earn higher wages but don't work enough hours. And third, about half of poor families have no workers, in which case a higher minimum wage does no good. This is simple descriptive evidence and is not disputed by economists.

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Using data from the Current Population Survey for recent years, my graduate student Sam Lundstrom has calculated that if we were to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 nationally, 18% of the benefits of the higher wages (holding employment fixed) would go to poor families. Twenty-nine percent would go to families with incomes three times the poverty level or higher.

What about minimum wages as high as $15 an hour? A higher minimum obviously affects more workers. But because workers at higher wages are even less likely to be in poor families, the targeting only worsens with a higher minimum wage. For example, applying the same calculation as above for a $15 per hour minimum, the share of benefits going to poor families would decline to 12%, and the share to families more than three times the poverty line would increase to 36%. And this does not account for the sizable employment losses that would likely result from such a large minimum-wage increase.