Abstract

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the trends and to estimate the future
load of patients with breast cancer requiring radiotherapy at Manipal Teaching Hospital,
Pokhara, Nepal.
Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was carried out on the data collected from
the treatment records of patients who were treated with radiotherapy at the department
of Radiation Oncology at Manipal Teaching Hospital (MTH), Pokhara, between September
2000 and December 2008. Descriptive statistics and statistical modelling were used for the
analysis and the forecasting of data.
Results: Seventy patients were found to have been treated with radiotherapy for breast
cancer during the study period. The patients’ mean age was 49.9 years (95% CI: 47.6, 52.3).
Curative treatment was given to 80% and palliative treatment to the remaining 20% of the
patients. Patients from the age group of 45-64 years were more likely to receive curative
76.2% radiotherapy. The compliance to treatment was 100% among the age group of 25-44
years and 90.5% among the group of 45-64 years, as compared to only 66% among patients
older than 65 years. (p = 0.03). The number of patients receiving radiotherapy for breast
cancer showed a pattern of increasing trend. Excluding the constant term from the
equation, the cubic model was the best fitted with R2 = 0.95, p = 0.001 for the forecasting
of breast cancer cases. Using this model, the number of breast cancer cases treated with
radiotherapy at the hospital by the year 2015 was estimated to be 194.
Conclusion: Breast cancer cases in Nepal show an increasing trend and treatment
facilities are bound to be hard pressed in providing the necessary health care to the public.
Nepal should adopt better strategies for the early detection of the disease and improvise
on the resources required for the treatment of this malady.