The National Hurricane Center is tracking a broad area of low pressure just east of the Lesser Antilles with a medium, 50% chance of becoming a tropical system during the next two days as it travel to the west – northwest at 10 – 15 mph. Conditions during the next four to six days should improve and this disturbance could become a tropical depression as it moves near or over the Bahama by next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO: 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, PUERTO RICO, AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, AND OVER HISPANIOLA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON, IF NECESSARY. FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS... MEDIUM...50 PERCENT. FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...HIGH ...70 PERCENT.