October 31, 2011

Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research Data Release: ICPSR announced the release of a new datasets on Oct. 30, 2011. Note: Some ICPSR studies are available only to ICPSR member institutions. To find out whether your organization is a member, and whether or not it supports ICPSR Direct downloading, see:

No. 898 “Promoting Infrastructure Development in Brazil,” by Annabelle Mourougane and Mauro Pisu.

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US Bureau of Economics Analysis Working Paper: “Is GDP or GDI a better measure of output? A statistical approach,” by Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy (WP2011-08, February 2011, .pdf format, 24p.).

Abstract:

Gross domestic product (GDP) and gross domestic income (GDI) are in theory estimates of the same concept, namely economic production over a defined span of time and space. Yet the two measures are compiled using different source data, and the two measures often give different indications of the direction of the economy. This raises the issue of which of the two measures is a more accurate estimate of economic production. In this paper we present a time-series statistical framework for addressing this issue. Our findings indicate that the latest vintage of GDP has been a better measure of true output over the 1983-2009 period than the latest vintage of GDI. Our model also implies an optimal weighting of GDP and GDI can yield a more accurate estimate of economic output than either GDP or GDI alone. Our empirical findings indicate that a weighting of approximately 60% to GDP yields the best estimate for the 1983-2009 period. When we consider vintages of estimated output, we find that GDI often contains additional information to GDP regarding true output.

Assessing the impact that socioeconomic determinants have on the prevalence of certain chronic conditions reported by respondents in population surveys must confront two problems. The first is that the self-reports could be in error (false positives and false negatives). The second is that those reporting are a selected sample of those who ever experience the problem, the selection being heavily influenced by excess mortality due to the condition being reported. In this paper, we use a combination of empirical data and microsimulation to (a) assess the magnitude of the biases due to the selection problem, and (b) suggest adjustment procedures that correct for biases.

A. “A Review of the August 2008 CPS Migration Supplement Automated Questionnaire,” by by G. Patricia de la Cruz (Working Paper No. 92, October 2011, .pdf format, 19p.). There is no abstract for this paper.

B. “Coverage of Population in Census 2000 Based on Demographic Analysis: The History Behind the Numbers,” by J. Gregory Robinson (Working Paper No. 91, October 2011, .pdf format, 48p.). There is no abstract for this paper.

C. “Plans for Producing Estimates of Net International Migration for the 2010 Demographic Analysis Estimates,” by Renuka Bhaskar, Melissa Scopilliti, Frederick Hollmann, and David Armstrong (Working Paper No. 90, October 2011, .pdf format, 19p.). There is no abstract for this paper.

This paper was prepared along with three companion documents to facilitate discussion during a Demographic Analysis (DA) technical review workshop. The paper focuses on Medicare enrollment as a source for estimating the population aged 65 and older on April 1, 2010. Three major issues are discussed:

– Not all United States residents aged 65 and older are enrolled in Medicare – either by law, or by preference. Correction factors need to be applied to the Medicare Enrollment Database (MEDB) to obtain an accurate estimate of the size and distribution of the United States population on April 1, 2010 by single year of age, sex, and race.

– There are records in the MEDB that should be excluded from the DA estimates. This includes people under 65 who qualify for Medicare, enrollees with residences outside of the United States, and records for people who were deceased as of April 1.

– The MEDB contains records with unknown and missing race codes. Also, Hispanic origin is recorded as a race category in the MEDB. These records need to be assigned a race code of Black or non-Black.

The paper proposes strategies for meeting the challenges associated with these issues.

This paper was prepared along with three companion documents to facilitate discussion during a Demographic Analysis technical review workshop. The paper focuses on the use of vital statistics in Demographic Analysis and: 1) describes the use of vital statistics data in
Demographic Analysis, 2) identifies key issues related to the use of birth records in Demographic Analysis, 3) outlines issues related to how race is reported in the decennial census, and 4) provides an overview of ongoing research.

Statistics Canada/Statistique Canada Working Paper: “Age at Immigration and the Education Outcomes of Children,” by Miles Corak (Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series No. 336, October 2011, .pdf and HTML format, 28p.). Note: Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:

Institute national d’etudes demographique [Paris, France] Periodical: Population and Societies (No. 482, October 2011, .pdf format, 4p.). The title article of this issue is “World population: seven billion today, how many tomorrow?” by Gilles Pison.

Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (University of Michigan) Substance Abuse and Mental Health Data Archive Update: Note: Some ICPSR studies are available only to ICPSR member institutions. To find out whether your organization is a member, and whether or not it supports ICPSR Direct downloading, see:

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Data Release: The US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality has released several new MEPS data files (October 2011, data in .zip or self decompressing [.exe] ASCII text and SAS Transport format, with documentation in HTML and .pdf format, and SAS and SPSS programming statements in ASCII format).

US Census Bureau Data Release: “Experimental Poverty Measures Public Use Research File and Release of Supplemental Poverty Measure Research,” (CB11-TPS.43, Oct. 27, 2011). Note: A link to the data files is provided from the press release. Data files can be downloaded in SAS format.

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College [Annandale-on-Hudson, NY] Working Paper: “Reducing Economic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Some Remarks on the Current Stability Programs, 2011-14,” by Gregor Semieniuk, Till van Treeck, and Achim Truger (Working Paper No. 694, October 2011, .pdf format, 41p.). Note: Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:

Kaiser Family Foundation Update: Kaiser issues its weekly updates of data, reports, briefs, etc. each Friday via email. The same content usually appears at this website shortly thereafter. The latest Weekly Update is for Oct. 21, 2011. Bookmark this page and check back often for the latest from Kaiser.

US Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration Report: “The Health and Well-Being of Children in Rural Areas: A Portrait of the Nation in 2007,” (October 2011, HTML format).

This study examines geographic variation in commercial medical care expenditures. Medical care expenditures are decomposed between service prices and service utilization. We find that both service prices and utilization contribute to overall differences in health spending across geographic markets. Our findings suggest that potential expenditure savings may be possible from more efficient utilization. However, the large variation in underlying service prices suggests that deviations in overall spending may persist, even if utilization diffrences across markets are diminished.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics Working Paper: “Time to Work or Time to Play: The Effect of Student Employment on Homework, Sleep, and Screen Time,” by Charlene Marie Kalenkoski and Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia (Working Paper No. 450, October 2011, .pdf format, 39p.). Note: Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:

October 25, 2011

A. The latest issue of MMWR, Vol. 60, No. 41, October 21, 2011 (HTML and .pdf format) is available from the US Centers for Disease Control site). Note: To access this issue in the future, simply click on “Weekly Report” and then “Current Volume” or “Past Volumes” on the left side of the page.

Purpose: The main objective of this study was to investigate whether subjective survival expectations in a developing country were as good as predictors of mortality as they have shown to be in other contexts.

Design and Methods: Data for this study was drawn from the first wave of the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study (2004-2006), a nationally representative sample of non-institutionalized adults over 60 years of age (N = 3000). Parametric Gompertz regressions were used to model mortality stratifying by gender and age (60-69 and 70-89). The first of the six models estimated included subjective survival expectations but not self-rated health status. The second included self-assessed health status but not subjective survival expectations. The third model included both variables. The last three models were similar to the first three, but each of them included four body functioning biomarkers. All models were adjusted by sociodemographic, health-related and health-related behavior variables.

Results: Only among males aged 60 to 69, subjective survival expectations were independent mortality predictors in models that may or not include body functioning biomarkers (p < 0.05 and p < 0.1 respectively). Results also suggested that subjective survival may be mediating the effects of objective measures of health status on mortality, and not just mediating the effects of self-assessed health status on mortality.

Implications: Differences between underlying mortality risks and those perceived by individuals can be employed to establish effect of external health shocks on updating self reported health status as well as potentially significant behavioral changes.

Program on the Global Demography of Aging [Harvard University] Working Paper: “From Burden to “Best Buys”: Reducing the Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries,” by David E. Bloom, Dan Chisholm, and Eva Jane-Llopis (Working Paper No. 75, October 2011, .pdf format, 11p.). Note: There is no abstract for this paper.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Periodical: Current Issues in Economics and Finance (Vol. 17, No. 6, October 2011, .pdf format, 7p.). The title of this issue is “The Role of Colleges and Universities in Building Local Human Capital,” by Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz.