'Thanksgiving Creep' here to stay?

U-T File: In this Nov. 22, 2012 photo, Bettie Barker and her parents Kay Jay, center, and Debbie Valdez, right, of Palmdale, went shopping for bargains at the K-Mart Thursday before having their Thanksgiving feast. About 35 million other shoppers turned out on Thanksgiving Day, and more retailers are responding this year by opening their doors on the holiday.
— Peggy Peattie

U-T File: In this Nov. 22, 2012 photo, Bettie Barker and her parents Kay Jay, center, and Debbie Valdez, right, of Palmdale, went shopping for bargains at the K-Mart Thursday before having their Thanksgiving feast. About 35 million other shoppers turned out on Thanksgiving Day, and more retailers are responding this year by opening their doors on the holiday.
— Peggy Peattie

For decades, shopping has been as much a part of Thanksgiving weekend as turkey and stuffing. But while some stores in the last few years have extended their Black Friday deals into Thanksgiving Day, not everyone thinks the so-called "Thanksgiving Creep" is good for shoppers, or even the retailers.

This year, consumers are expected to spend an average of $738 on gifts and seasonal items, for a total of $602 billion. Last year, they spent nearly $580 billion.

In the race to get at that money first, Kmart, Walmart, Toys R Us, Sears, Target and a host of retailers at San Diego County's outlet malls opened on Thanksgiving Day last year. This year, Macy's, J.C. Penney, Office Max and Kohl's were among those who announced they also will welcome shoppers into their stores nationwide on the holiday.

Thanksgiving Shoppers By the Numbers

35 million: The number of holiday consumers who shopped on Thanksgiving Day 2012, compared with 29 million in 2011

36: The percentage of Millennials (aged 18-34) who shopped on Thanksgiving Day 2012, compared with 25 percent of all adults

720,000-780,000: The number of seasonal workers retailers are expected to hire this holiday season

8 p.m.: The most common time stores will be opening on Thanksgiving Day

The snowballing trend is a natural result of the high stakes surrounding the kickoff of holiday shopping season. Most retailers depend on the days between Thanksgiving and Christmas to make as much as 40 percent of their annual revenue, according to the National Retail Federation. And because there are fewer of those days this year—26, as opposed to last year's 33—the competition to get shoppers in early is fierce.

"One way to think about it is a sort of race to the bottom," said On Amir, an associate professor of marketing at the University of California, San Diego Rady School of Management.

On the other hand, he said, it's the logical thing for retailers to do when competing for consumers, millions of whom line up hours in advance of Black Friday, eager to get into stores to take advantage of high-value deals traditionally reserved for the post-Thanksgiving shopping day. Last year, 28 percent of holiday shoppers made their first shopping stop before midnight on Thanksgiving, compared with just 10 percent in 2010.

Major Retailers' Thanksgiving Day Openings (Preliminary)

Kmart: 6 a.m.

Toys R Us: 5 p.m.

Office Max: 8 p.m.

Macy’s: 8 p.m.

Kohl’s: 8 p.m.

J.C. Penney: 8 p.m.

Nine West: 8 p.m.

Levi's: 9 p.m.

"If you just came from a different planet and you stood out and saw the lines outside these large retailers waiting for Black Friday, you would say, 'Somebody could make a lot of money if they just opened the doors,'" Amir said. "Given that they build up all this hype and are attracting this price-sensitive segment, it really makes no sense not to open the doors if the people want to come into your store."

The tactic appears to be working. More than 35 million Americans, or one-quarter of holiday shoppers, visited retailers' stores and websites on Thanksgiving Day in 2012, the National Retail Federation found in its annual Black Friday survey, compared with 29 million the year before.

Beyond making sales earlier, stores that open first have the chance to make more of them by drawing in shoppers they might not otherwise attract, Amir pointed out. This is because people will go to their second- or third-choice store if it's more convenient than waiting for the doors to open at their first-choice store.

"We think this is all an effort to get to the wallet before the money runs out," said Bill Martin, founder of foot traffic analysis company ShopperTrak. "They’re trying to get a jump on the competitors. For those who opened up early in 2012, perhaps they feel like they did get a little jump, and maybe the competitors felt that as well."

Holiday shopping 2013

But the benefits of opening early may be exaggerated, or even nonexistent.

There's not enough data to support the theory that opening earlier results in more revenue, Martin said. Preliminary numbers indicate it simply spreads out the sales retailers would normally make.

"It's generating sales on Thursday at the expense of Friday sales," he said. "It's almost dividing the same number of shoppers, store visits and dollars across a longer period of time. It's not creating a larger portion of business."

That means retailers may actually be losing, he said, when you factor in the amount they have to pay employees to work on a holiday. With earlier openings, he added, come earlier promotions and earlier seasonal hires, which can also be costly.

Depending on how workers are paid, Amir said opening on Thanksgiving could be a really unpopular practice among retail employees.

"If I am a worker that’s paid partly by commission, I would probably like to be there while everybody’s buying," he said. "If not, I’m probably going to be a bit upset that my employer wants me to be there on Thanksgiving."

It certainly irks Jordana Bishop, and she doesn't even work in retail.

"It was October 2010 when I heard the announcement that Target and Walmart were going to be opening on Thanksgiving Day, and it really upset me," said Bishop, the creator of the "Boycott Shopping on Thanksgiving Day" Facebook group, which has more than 1,800 "likes."

Because Bishop lives in Massachusetts, where Blue Laws prohibit retailers from opening on Sundays and holidays, Thanksgiving Creep doesn't directly affect her, but she said she worries about the retail employees in other states who get drafted to work on the holiday and miss Thanksgiving dinner with their families.

"It's my favorite weekend of the whole year, and just imagining if I had to work and miss it, I would be devastated and the family would be devastated," she said.

She is not the only one speaking out. Severalpetitions to stop Thanksgiving Day store openings have been posted to Change.org and drawn thousands of signatures, and numerous Facebook groups are devoted to the cause of keeping the holiday a holiday.

Martin said he's surprised that so many consumers shopped on Thanksgiving last year, considering the pushback. Last year's data show that millions of people have no problem "shopping off" their turkey dinner.

Both J.C. Penney Co. and Macy's said their decisions to open early were a response to shopper demand.

"Last year, many consumers flooded shopping centers around the country on Thanksgiving day, only to find JCPenney’s doors locked until 6 a.m. Friday morning," the retailer said in an email. "In fact, many customers knocked and pounded on our doors because they were ready to shop! The customer spoke and we listened."

Macy's spokeswoman Rosemarie Robles said her company's decision is all about convenience for the shopper, and has added benefits for employees.

"Extending our hours provides Macy’s customers with more convenience – affording more options to shop for those with varying work and life schedules," she said. "Expansion of our store hours is direct result of customer’s eagerness to shop early for great deals."

She added that the chain is sensitive to people's concerns about retail work creeping into the holiday. That is why Macy's began its staffing plan early to let employees consider the available shifts during the holiday season and to volunteer for the shifts they prefer. More than half volunteered to work an opening shift on Thanksgiving evening so they can spend Friday with their family or doing their own shopping.

"Many of our employees have never had the opportunity to be off during the day on Friday," she said.