[{"attrs":{".reference_type":"47","Author":"Stumpf, Richard P.; Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi; Granéli, Edna","Conference Location":"Venice, Italy","Conference Name":"Proceedings of OceanObs’09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (Volume 1)","DOI":"10.5270\/OceanObs09.pp.36","Date Published":"21-25 September","Publisher":"ESA Publication WPP-306","Secondary Author":"Hall, Julie; Harrison, D.E.; Stammer, Detlef","Title":"Integration of data for nowcasting of harmful algal blooms","URL":"http:\/\/www.oceanobs09.net\/proceedings\/pp\/pp36\/index.php","Volume":"Proceedings of OceanObs’09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society","Year of Conference":"2010","_chapter":"Ch5","_record_number":"16482","_uuid":"0000d972-5072-432b-ade8-4bf4d67f37f8","reftype":"Conference Paper"},"child_publication":"\/generic\/c80e9eae-21ae-49ba-9877-e6a621b6b60c","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0000d972-5072-432b-ade8-4bf4d67f37f8.json","identifier":"0000d972-5072-432b-ade8-4bf4d67f37f8","uri":"\/reference\/0000d972-5072-432b-ade8-4bf4d67f37f8"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"Casman, Elizabeth; Fischhoff, Baruch; Small, Mitchell; Dowlatabadi, Hadi; Rose, Joan; Morgan, M. Granger","DOI":"10.1023\/a:1010623831501","ISSN":"1573-1480","Issue":"1-2","Journal":"Climatic Change","Pages":"219-249","Title":"Climate change and cryptosporidiosis: A qualitative analysis","Volume":"50","Year":"2001","_record_number":"18861","_uuid":"0002c0e6-5e9d-46fd-8dba-8cd3274c622e","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1023\/a:1010623831501","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0002c0e6-5e9d-46fd-8dba-8cd3274c622e.json","identifier":"0002c0e6-5e9d-46fd-8dba-8cd3274c622e","uri":"\/reference\/0002c0e6-5e9d-46fd-8dba-8cd3274c622e"},{"attrs":{"Abstract":"Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.","Author":"O’Neill, Brian C.; M. Done, James; Gettelman, Andrew; Lawrence, Peter; Lehner, Flavio; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Lei; J. Monaghan, Andrew; Oleson, Keith; Ren, Xiaolin; M. Sanderson, Benjamin; Tebaldi, Claudia; Weitzel, Matthias; Xu, Yangyang; Anderson, Brooke; Fix, Miranda J.; Levis, Samuel","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-017-2009-x","Date":"July 26","ISSN":"1573-1480","Journal":"Climatic Change","Title":"The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis","Type of Article":"journal article","Year":"2017","_record_number":"24077","_uuid":"0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1007\/s10584-017-2009-x","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d.json","identifier":"0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d","uri":"\/reference\/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"7","Author":"Jacob, Klaus\rNicholas Maxemchuk\rGeorge Deodatis\rAurelie Morla\rEllen Schlossberg\rImin Paung\rMadeleine Lopeman\rRadley Horton\rDaniel Bader\rRobin Leichenko\rPeter Vancura\rYehuda Klein","Book Title":"Responding to Climate Change in New York State: The ClimAID Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation in New York State","Editor":"C. Rosenzweig \rW. Solecki \rA. DeGaetano \rM. O'Grady \rS. Hassol \rP. Grabhorn","ISBN":"978-1-936842-00-1","Pages":"363-396","Place Published":"Abany, NY","Publisher":"New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA)","Reviewer":"000b594a-e2da-44c6-8f4e-7c4be7548a68","Title":"Ch. 10: Telecommunications","URL":"http:\/\/www.nyserda.ny.gov\/climaid","Year":"2011","_chapter":"[\"Ch. 14: Rural Communities FINAL\"]","_record_number":"4252","_uuid":"000b594a-e2da-44c6-8f4e-7c4be7548a68","reftype":"Book Section"},"child_publication":"\/report\/nyserda-report-11-18","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/000b594a-e2da-44c6-8f4e-7c4be7548a68.json","identifier":"000b594a-e2da-44c6-8f4e-7c4be7548a68","uri":"\/reference\/000b594a-e2da-44c6-8f4e-7c4be7548a68"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Rice, Karen C.; Hong, Bo; Shen, Jian","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2012.06.036","Date":"2012\/11\/30\/","ISSN":"0301-4797","Journal":"Journal of Environmental Management","Keywords":"Sea-level rise; Salinity intrusion; Drinking-water supply; Chesapeake Bay; Model simulation","Pages":"61-69","Title":"Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA","Volume":"111","Year":"2012","_record_number":"21523","_uuid":"000cb918-6991-4b96-ada7-92f8aa6b903d","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1016\/j.jenvman.2012.06.036","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/000cb918-6991-4b96-ada7-92f8aa6b903d.json","identifier":"000cb918-6991-4b96-ada7-92f8aa6b903d","uri":"\/reference\/000cb918-6991-4b96-ada7-92f8aa6b903d"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Jorgenson, M. T.; Brown, J.","DOI":"10.1007\/s00367-004-0188-8","ISSN":"1432-1157","Issue":"2","Journal":"Geo-Marine Letters","Label":"Jorgenson2005","Pages":"69-80","Title":"Classification of the Alaskan Beaufort Sea Coast and estimation of carbon and sediment inputs from coastal erosion","Type of Article":"journal article","Volume":"25","Year":"2005","_record_number":"1896","_uuid":"001571a5-c189-4abf-8854-5742941be5ca","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":null,"href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/001571a5-c189-4abf-8854-5742941be5ca.json","identifier":"001571a5-c189-4abf-8854-5742941be5ca","uri":"\/reference\/001571a5-c189-4abf-8854-5742941be5ca"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Abstract":"Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lower interannual variability relative to trend magnitude. Put another way, intrinsic variability in the observations tends to limit confidence in trend robustness. Ocean fluxes are less certain, primarily because of the lack of long-term observations. Where available, salinity and volume flux data suggest some decrease in saltwater inflow to the Barents Sea (i.e., a decrease in freshwater outflow) in recent decades. A decline in freshwater storage across the central Arctic Ocean and suggestions that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in freshwater trends raise questions as to whether Arctic Ocean freshwater flows are intensifying. Although oceanic fluxes of freshwater are highly variable and consistent trends are difficult to verify, the other components of the Arctic FWC do show consistent positive trends over recent decades. The broad-scale increases provide evidence that the Arctic FWC is experiencing intensification. Efforts that aim to develop an adequate observation system are needed to reduce uncertainties and to detect and document ongoing changes in all system components for further evidence of Arctic FWC intensification.","Author":"Michael A. Rawlins; Michael Steele; Marika M. Holland; Jennifer C. Adam; Jessica E. Cherry; Jennifer A. Francis; Pavel Ya Groisman; Larry D. Hinzman; Thomas G. Huntington; Douglas L. Kane; John S. Kimball; Ron Kwok; Richard B. Lammers; Craig M. Lee; Dennis P. Lettenmaier; Kyle C. McDonald; Erika Podest; Jonathan W. Pundsack; Bert Rudels; Mark C. Serreze; Alexander Shiklomanov; Øystein Skagseth; Tara J. Troy; Charles J. Vörösmarty; Mark Wensnahan; Eric F. Wood; Rebecca Woodgate; Daqing Yang; Ke Zhang; Tingjun Zhang","DOI":"10.1175\/2010JCLI3421.1","Issue":"21","Journal":"Journal of Climate","Keywords":"Arctic,Evapotranspiration,Precipitation,Freshwater","Pages":"5715-5737","Title":"Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations","Volume":"23","Year":"2010","_record_number":"19864","_uuid":"0015e877-955d-415a-ad29-44d537d8119c","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1175\/2010JCLI3421.1","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0015e877-955d-415a-ad29-44d537d8119c.json","identifier":"0015e877-955d-415a-ad29-44d537d8119c","uri":"\/reference\/0015e877-955d-415a-ad29-44d537d8119c"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"16","Author":"FEWS NET,","Publisher":"Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) and U.S. Agency for International Development","Title":"Large Assistance Needs and Famine Risk Continue in 2018 [Infographic]","URL":"https:\/\/fews.net\/sites\/default\/files\/Food_assistance_needs_Peak_Needs_2018-Final.pdf","Year":"2018","_record_number":"26733","_uuid":"00193d52-610b-44b0-8e81-7eeb2fe96d19","reftype":"Web Page"},"child_publication":"\/webpage\/177e75e4-a190-45dc-8d46-afeb98a2a67b","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00193d52-610b-44b0-8e81-7eeb2fe96d19.json","identifier":"00193d52-610b-44b0-8e81-7eeb2fe96d19","uri":"\/reference\/00193d52-610b-44b0-8e81-7eeb2fe96d19"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Abstract":"The possibility that recent Antarctic sea ice expansion resulted from an increase in freshwater reaching the Southern Ocean is investigated here. The freshwater flux from ice sheet and ice shelf mass imbalance is largely missing in models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, on average, precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) reaching the Southern Ocean has increased in CMIP5 models to a present value that is about greater than preindustrial times and 5–22 times larger than estimates of the mass imbalance of Antarctic ice sheets and shelves (119–544 ). Two sets of experiments were conducted from 1980 to 2013 in CESM1(CAM5), one of the CMIP5 models, artificially distributing freshwater either at the ocean surface to mimic iceberg melt or at the ice shelf fronts at depth. An anomalous reduction in vertical advection of heat into the surface mixed layer resulted in sea surface cooling at high southern latitudes and an associated increase in sea ice area. Enhancing the freshwater input by an amount within the range of estimates of the Antarctic mass imbalance did not have any significant effect on either sea ice area magnitude or trend. Freshwater enhancement of raised the total sea ice area by 1 × 106 km2, yet this and even an enhancement of was insufficient to offset the sea ice decline due to anthropogenic forcing for any period of 20 years or longer. Further, the sea ice response was found to be insensitive to the depth of freshwater injection.","Author":"Andrew G. Pauling; Cecilia M. Bitz; Inga J. Smith; Patricia J. Langhorne","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-15-0501.1","Issue":"5","Journal":"Journal of Climate","Keywords":"Geographic location\/entity,Antarctica,Ice shelves,Sea ice,Atm\/Ocean Structure\/ Phenomena,Freshwater,Oceanic mixed layer,Models and modeling,General circulation models","Pages":"1655-1672","Title":"The response of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice to freshwater from ice shelves in an Earth system model","Volume":"29","Year":"2016","_record_number":"19446","_uuid":"001eb7f6-7347-4ae4-92de-310efd5a8772","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1175\/JCLI-D-15-0501.1","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/001eb7f6-7347-4ae4-92de-310efd5a8772.json","identifier":"001eb7f6-7347-4ae4-92de-310efd5a8772","uri":"\/reference\/001eb7f6-7347-4ae4-92de-310efd5a8772"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"16","Access Year":"2013","Author":"CDC,","Last Update Date":"September 12, 2012","Place Published":"Atlanta, GA","Publisher":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","Title":"Interactive Lyme Disease Map","URL":"http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/lyme\/stats\/maps\/interactiveMaps.html","Year":"2013","_chapter":"[\"Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL\",\"Overview\"]","_record_number":"4238","_uuid":"001ff09f-665d-4872-acdc-11e8af22e83e","reftype":"Web Page"},"child_publication":"\/webpage\/7206f315-04be-4536-9e10-70155edfada0","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/001ff09f-665d-4872-acdc-11e8af22e83e.json","identifier":"001ff09f-665d-4872-acdc-11e8af22e83e","uri":"\/reference\/001ff09f-665d-4872-acdc-11e8af22e83e"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Wachs, Martin","DOI":"10.1007\/bf01100463","ISSN":"0049-4488\r1572-9435","Issue":"4","Journal":"Transportation","Pages":"329-354","Title":"Learning from Los Angeles: Transport, urban form, and air quality","Volume":"20","Year":"1993","_record_number":"887","_uuid":"00214e1b-63f2-4bec-ac47-871de45e49ea","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":null,"href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00214e1b-63f2-4bec-ac47-871de45e49ea.json","identifier":"00214e1b-63f2-4bec-ac47-871de45e49ea","uri":"\/reference\/00214e1b-63f2-4bec-ac47-871de45e49ea"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Abstract":"Using ensembles from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) under a high and a lower emission scenarios, we investigate changes in statistics of extreme daily temperature. The ensembles provide large samples for a robust application of extreme value theory. We estimate return values and return periods for annual maxima of the daily high and low temperatures as well as the 3-day averages of the same variables in current and future climate. Results indicate statistically significant increases (compared to the reference period of 1996–2005) in extreme temperatures over all land areas as early as 2025 under both scenarios, with statistically significant differences between them becoming pervasive over the globe by 2050. The substantially smaller changes, for all indices, produced under the lower emission case translate into sizeable benefits from emission mitigation: By 2075, in terms of reduced changes in 1-day heat extremes, about 95 % of land regions would see benefits of 1 °C or more under the lower emissions scenario, and 50 % or more of the land areas would benefit by at least 2 °C. 6 % of the land area would benefit by 3 °C or more in projected extreme minimum temperatures and 13 % would benefit by this amount for extreme maximum temperature. Benefits for 3-day metrics are similar. The future frequency of current extremes is also greatly reduced by mitigation: by the end of the century, under RCP8.5 more than half the land area experiences the current 20-year events every year while only between about 10 and 25 % of the area is affected by such severe changes under RCP4.5.","Author":"Tebaldi, Claudia; Wehner, Michael F.","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-016-1605-5","ISSN":"1573-1480","Journal":"Climatic Change","Pages":"1-13","Title":"Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5","Volume":"First online","Year":"2016","_record_number":"20060","_uuid":"00234d41-c8e2-49c1-8b7a-8a2c0ad9b6df","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1007\/s10584-016-1605-5","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00234d41-c8e2-49c1-8b7a-8a2c0ad9b6df.json","identifier":"00234d41-c8e2-49c1-8b7a-8a2c0ad9b6df","uri":"\/reference\/00234d41-c8e2-49c1-8b7a-8a2c0ad9b6df"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"1","Author":"Linkov, I.\rMoberg, E.","ISBN":"1439853185","Number of Pages":"186","Place Published":"Boca Raton, FL","Publisher":"CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group","Reviewer":"0023e650-9534-4fb9-be44-fa3f55f0babe","Series Editor":"Suter, G.W.","Title":"Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Environmental Applications and Case Studies","Year":"2011","_chapter":"[\"Ch. 26: Decision Support FINAL\"]","_record_number":"1136","_uuid":"0023e650-9534-4fb9-be44-fa3f55f0babe","reftype":"Book"},"child_publication":"\/book\/ae257d61-4ae0-431a-8460-0b5c66bc8b48","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0023e650-9534-4fb9-be44-fa3f55f0babe.json","identifier":"0023e650-9534-4fb9-be44-fa3f55f0babe","uri":"\/reference\/0023e650-9534-4fb9-be44-fa3f55f0babe"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Guerlet, S.; Basu, S.; Butz, A.; Krol, M.; Hahne, P.; Houweling, S.; Hasekamp, O. P.; Aben, I.","DOI":"10.1002\/grl.50402","ISSN":"1944-8007","Issue":"10","Journal":"Geophysical Research Letters","Keywords":"GOSAT; carbon dioxide; interannual variability; biosphere-atmosphere exchanges; inverse modeling; 0315 Biosphere\/atmosphere interactions; 0480 Remote sensing; 0428 Carbon cycling; 4313 Extreme events","Pages":"2378-2383","Title":"Reduced carbon uptake during the 2010 Northern Hemisphere summer from GOSAT","Volume":"40","Year":"2013","_record_number":"1456","_uuid":"0025aced-899d-46cd-a4a4-037b634d3e57","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":null,"href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0025aced-899d-46cd-a4a4-037b634d3e57.json","identifier":"0025aced-899d-46cd-a4a4-037b634d3e57","uri":"\/reference\/0025aced-899d-46cd-a4a4-037b634d3e57"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Pyrgiotis, Nikolas; Malone, Kerry M.; Odoni, Amedeo","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trc.2011.05.017","Date":"2013\/02\/01\/","ISSN":"0968-090X","Journal":"Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies","Keywords":"Airport delays; Network of airports; Delay propagation","Pages":"60-75","Title":"Modelling delay propagation within an airport network","Volume":"27","Year":"2013","_record_number":"24560","_uuid":"0026f3c4-84e5-487b-a485-c78de04931c7","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1016\/j.trc.2011.05.017","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0026f3c4-84e5-487b-a485-c78de04931c7.json","identifier":"0026f3c4-84e5-487b-a485-c78de04931c7","uri":"\/reference\/0026f3c4-84e5-487b-a485-c78de04931c7"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"O’Neill, M.S.\rKinney, P.L.\rCohen, A.J.","DOI":"10.1080\/15287390801997625","Issue":"9-10","Journal":"Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A","Pages":"570-577","Title":"Environmental equity in air quality management: Local and international implications for human health and climate change","Volume":"71","Year":"2008","_chapter":"[\"Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL\"]","_record_number":"3636","_uuid":"0029eba2-f4a7-4d12-bd24-4f677da92109","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1080\/15287390801997625","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0029eba2-f4a7-4d12-bd24-4f677da92109.json","identifier":"0029eba2-f4a7-4d12-bd24-4f677da92109","uri":"\/reference\/0029eba2-f4a7-4d12-bd24-4f677da92109"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"Chmura, D.J.\rAnderson, P.D.\rHowe, G.T.\rHarrington, C.A.\rHalofsky, J.E.\rPeterson, D.L.\rShaw, D.C.\rSt Clair, J.B.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foreco.2010.12.040","ISSN":"0378-1127","Issue":"7","Journal":"Forest Ecology and Management","Pages":"1121-1142","Title":"Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: Ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management","Volume":"261","Year":"2011","_chapter":"[\"Ch. 21: Northwest FINAL\"]","_record_number":"731","_uuid":"003059d3-c900-4ba3-9665-26d7908495d2","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1016\/j.foreco.2010.12.040","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/003059d3-c900-4ba3-9665-26d7908495d2.json","identifier":"003059d3-c900-4ba3-9665-26d7908495d2","uri":"\/reference\/003059d3-c900-4ba3-9665-26d7908495d2"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"Mendelsohn, R.\rNordhaus, W.D.\rShaw, D.","ISSN":"0002-8282","Journal":"The American Economic Review","Pages":"753-771","Title":"The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricardian analysis","URL":"http:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/pdfplus\/2118029.pdf","Year":"1994","_chapter":"[\"Ch. 6: Agriculture FINAL\"]","_record_number":"1997","_uuid":"00391a36-58d4-42e9-b728-56b83fee5c04","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/the-impact-of-global-warming-on-agriculture-a-ricardian-analysis","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00391a36-58d4-42e9-b728-56b83fee5c04.json","identifier":"00391a36-58d4-42e9-b728-56b83fee5c04","uri":"\/reference\/00391a36-58d4-42e9-b728-56b83fee5c04"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"32","Author":"Washington State Legislature,","Place Published":"Olympia, WA","Section Number":"WAC 296-62-095","Title":"Outdoor Heat Exposure","URL":"http:\/\/apps.leg.wa.gov\/WAC\/default.aspx?cite=296-62-095","Year":"2008","_record_number":"26532","_uuid":"003d86b9-80b4-4a81-8f88-5b715ee5f14a","reftype":"Legal Rule or Regulation"},"child_publication":"\/generic\/51f10f74-4f4e-462c-bb4a-c27916f53b4e","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/003d86b9-80b4-4a81-8f88-5b715ee5f14a.json","identifier":"003d86b9-80b4-4a81-8f88-5b715ee5f14a","uri":"\/reference\/003d86b9-80b4-4a81-8f88-5b715ee5f14a"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"Wilby, R.L.\rVaughan, K.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1747-6593.2010.00220.x","ISSN":"1747-6593","Issue":"2","Journal":"Water and Environment Journal","Pages":"271-281","Title":"Hallmarks of organisations that are adapting to climate change","Volume":"25","Year":"2011","_chapter":"[\"Ch. 28: Adaptation FINAL\"]","_record_number":"3426","_uuid":"00416eb3-6dfe-4ff3-9b47-aa45268adac7","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1111\/j.1747-6593.2010.00220.x","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00416eb3-6dfe-4ff3-9b47-aa45268adac7.json","identifier":"00416eb3-6dfe-4ff3-9b47-aa45268adac7","uri":"\/reference\/00416eb3-6dfe-4ff3-9b47-aa45268adac7"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"16","Author":"NWS,","Place Published":"San Juan, PR","Publisher":"NOAA National Weather Service (NWS)","Title":"Average Rainfall Statistics: San Juan, PR","URL":"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/sju\/averagerainfall","Year":"2018","_record_number":"26702","_uuid":"0049e302-7751-4977-91ff-0df54d0ab326","reftype":"Web Page"},"child_publication":"\/webpage\/2c6723b1-748d-4cb0-b399-4028bcc542cc","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0049e302-7751-4977-91ff-0df54d0ab326.json","identifier":"0049e302-7751-4977-91ff-0df54d0ab326","uri":"\/reference\/0049e302-7751-4977-91ff-0df54d0ab326"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Abstract":"Midlatitude atmospheric variability is identified as a particularly effective component of the stochastic forcing of ENSO. This forcing is realized via a seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM), in which the tropical atmosphere is forced during the spring and summer by SST anomalies generated by midlatitude atmospheric variability during the previous winter. The strong relationship between the SFM and ENSO may serve to enhance ENSO predictability and supports the view that ENSO is linearly stable in nature.","Author":"Daniel J. Vimont; John M. Wallace; David S. Battisti","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(2003)016<2668:tsfmit>2.0.co;2","Issue":"16","Journal":"Journal of Climate","Pages":"2668-2675","Title":"The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the Pacific: Implications for ENSO","Volume":"16","Year":"2003","_record_number":"20905","_uuid":"004ee9da-c802-4c6a-a315-3a128dd7cf37","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1175\/1520-0442(2003)016%3C2668:tsfmit%3E2.0.co;2","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/004ee9da-c802-4c6a-a315-3a128dd7cf37.json","identifier":"004ee9da-c802-4c6a-a315-3a128dd7cf37","uri":"\/reference\/004ee9da-c802-4c6a-a315-3a128dd7cf37"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Holgerson, Meredith A.; Raymond, Peter A.","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo2654","ISSN":"1752-0894\r1752-0908","Issue":"3","Journal":"Nature Geoscience","Pages":"222-226","Title":"Large contribution to inland water CO2 and CH4 emissions from very small ponds","Volume":"9","Year":"2016","_record_number":"2386","_uuid":"0052df74-1b3f-494c-9b55-5bfe1a02a037","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":null,"href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0052df74-1b3f-494c-9b55-5bfe1a02a037.json","identifier":"0052df74-1b3f-494c-9b55-5bfe1a02a037","uri":"\/reference\/0052df74-1b3f-494c-9b55-5bfe1a02a037"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"Mao, Yixin; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.","DOI":"10.1002\/2015GL063456","ISSN":"1944-8007","Issue":"8","Journal":"Geophysical Research Letters","Keywords":"California drought; climate change; hydrologic model; 1812 Drought; 1807 Climate impacts; 1817 Extreme events; 1833 Hydroclimatology","Pages":"2805-2813","Title":"Is climate change implicated in the 2013–2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective","Volume":"42","Year":"2015","_record_number":"19563","_uuid":"00530ebe-5a48-46de-bbd4-ace938dfd17c","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1002\/2015GL063456","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00530ebe-5a48-46de-bbd4-ace938dfd17c.json","identifier":"00530ebe-5a48-46de-bbd4-ace938dfd17c","uri":"\/reference\/00530ebe-5a48-46de-bbd4-ace938dfd17c"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Abstract":"Recent analyses of extreme hydrological events across the United States, including those summarized in the recent U.S. Third National Climate Assessment (May 2014), show that extremely large (extreme) precipitation and streamflow events are increasing over much of the country, with particularly steep trends over the northeastern United States. The authors demonstrate that the increase in extreme hydrological events over the northeastern United States is primarily a warm season phenomenon and is caused more by an increase in frequency than magnitude. The frequency of extreme warm season events peaked during the 2000s; a secondary peak occurred during the 1970s; and the calmest decade was the 1960s. Cold season trends during the last 30–50 yr are weaker. Since extreme precipitation events in this region tend to be larger during the warm season than during the cold season, trend analyses based on annual precipitation values are influenced more by warm season than by cold season trends. In contrast, the magnitude of extreme streamflow events at stations used for climatological analyses tends to be larger during the cold season: therefore, extreme event analyses based on annual streamflow values are overwhelmingly influenced by cold season, and therefore weaker, trends. These results help to explain an apparent discrepancy in the literature, whereby increasing trends in extreme precipitation events appear to be significant and ubiquitous across the region, while trends in streamflow appear less dramatic and less spatially coherent.","Author":"Allan Frei; Kenneth E. Kunkel; Adao Matonse","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-14-0237.1","Issue":"5","Journal":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","Keywords":"Climate variability,Hydrology,Hydrometeorology,Water budget,Multidecadal variability","Pages":"2065-2085","Title":"The seasonal nature of extreme hydrological events in the northeastern United States","Volume":"16","Year":"2015","_record_number":"19711","_uuid":"005ccdb0-238f-4ade-9271-affa7c61bed9","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1175\/JHM-D-14-0237.1","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/005ccdb0-238f-4ade-9271-affa7c61bed9.json","identifier":"005ccdb0-238f-4ade-9271-affa7c61bed9","uri":"\/reference\/005ccdb0-238f-4ade-9271-affa7c61bed9"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Oklahoma NSF EPSCoR,","Conference Name":"2016 Tribal College Conference Series on Climate Change","Date":"April 8","Publisher":"Oklahoma National Science Foundation (NSF) Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR)","Title":"Native American Water and Food Security Research","URL":"http:\/\/www.okepscor.org\/public-outreach\/news\/nsf-epscor-hold-tribal-college-conference-climate-change-research","Year of Conference":"2016","_record_number":"26288","_uuid":"00636bfb-a814-4cf5-b21f-2634e8963925","reftype":"Conference Proceedings"},"child_publication":"\/generic\/6612a547-b67e-40f1-ac12-d933722f20fd","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00636bfb-a814-4cf5-b21f-2634e8963925.json","identifier":"00636bfb-a814-4cf5-b21f-2634e8963925","uri":"\/reference\/00636bfb-a814-4cf5-b21f-2634e8963925"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"Shi, F\rYang, B\rMairesse, A\rvon Gunten, L\rLi, J\rBräuning, A\rYang, F\rXiao, X","DOI":"10.3354\/cr01156","Date":"April 24, 2013","Issue":"3","Journal":"Climate Research","Pages":"231-244","Title":"Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies","URL":"http:\/\/www.int-res.com\/articles\/cr2013\/56\/c056p231.pdf","Volume":"56","Year":"2013","_chapter":"[\"Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL\"]","_record_number":"4265","_uuid":"0064ddef-5870-4fa4-a09d-c7d97b539ec5","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.3354\/cr01156","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0064ddef-5870-4fa4-a09d-c7d97b539ec5.json","identifier":"0064ddef-5870-4fa4-a09d-c7d97b539ec5","uri":"\/reference\/0064ddef-5870-4fa4-a09d-c7d97b539ec5"},{"attrs":{"Author":"van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko; Riahi, Keywan; Thomson, Allison; Hibbard, Kathy; Hurtt, George C.; Kram, Tom; Krey, Volker; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Masui, Toshihiko; Meinshausen, Malte; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Smith, Steven J.; Rose, Steven K.","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0148-z","ISSN":"0165-0009\r1573-1480","Issue":"1-2","Journal":"Climatic Change","Pages":"5-31","Title":"The Representative Concentration Pathways: an Overview","Volume":"109","Year":"2011","_record_number":"3729","_uuid":"006bd6a7-3e9f-4996-aa7c-434627da73f0","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1007\/s10584-011-0148-z","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/006bd6a7-3e9f-4996-aa7c-434627da73f0.json","identifier":"006bd6a7-3e9f-4996-aa7c-434627da73f0","uri":"\/reference\/006bd6a7-3e9f-4996-aa7c-434627da73f0"},{"attrs":{".publisher":"John Wiley & Sons, Ltd",".reference_type":"0","Author":"Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor; Chernokulsky, Alexander; Outten, Stephen; Zilitinkevich, Sergej","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.4688","Journal":"International Journal of Climatology","Keywords":"climate change; surface air temperature; climate feedback; energy-budget model","Pages":"79-93","Title":"Diurnal asymmetry to the observed global warming","Volume":"37","Year":"2016","_record_number":"20525","_uuid":"006c2a6c-00df-4d13-b00c-99c4c5dc276e","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1002\/joc.4688","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/006c2a6c-00df-4d13-b00c-99c4c5dc276e.json","identifier":"006c2a6c-00df-4d13-b00c-99c4c5dc276e","uri":"\/reference\/006c2a6c-00df-4d13-b00c-99c4c5dc276e"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"Dulvy, N.K.\rRogers, S.I.\rJennings, S.\rStelzenmüller, V.\rDye, S.R.\rSkjoldal, H.R.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2008.01488.x","ISSN":"1365-2664","Issue":"4","Journal":"Journal of Applied Ecology","Pages":"1029-1039","Title":"Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: A biotic indicator of warming seas","Volume":"45","Year":"2008","_chapter":"[\"Ch. 24: Oceans FINAL\",\"Ch. 8: Ecosystems FINAL\"]","_record_number":"276","_uuid":"006ce4db-d72c-400a-a409-c6a536e55664","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2008.01488.x","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/006ce4db-d72c-400a-a409-c6a536e55664.json","identifier":"006ce4db-d72c-400a-a409-c6a536e55664","uri":"\/reference\/006ce4db-d72c-400a-a409-c6a536e55664"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Abstract":"OBJECTIVES: We described American Indian\/Alaska Native (AI\/AN) infant and pediatric death rates and leading causes of death. METHODS: We adjusted National Vital Statistics System mortality data for AI\/AN racial misclassification by linkage with Indian Health Service (IHS) registration records. We determined average annual death rates and leading causes of death for 1999 to 2009 for AI\/AN versus White infants and children. We limited the analysis to IHS Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties. RESULTS: The AI\/AN infant death rate was 914 (rate ratio [RR] = 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.55, 1.67). Sudden infant death syndrome, unintentional injuries, and influenza or pneumonia were more common in AI\/AN versus White infants. The overall AI\/AN pediatric death rates were 69.6 for ages 1 to 4 years (RR = 2.56; 95% CI = 2.38, 2.75), 28.9 for ages 5 to 9 years (RR = 2.12; 95% CI = 1.92, 2.34), 37.3 for ages 10 to 14 years (RR = 2.22; 95% CI = 2.04, 2.40), and 158.4 for ages 15 to 19 years (RR = 2.71; 95% CI = 2.60, 2.82). Unintentional injuries and suicide occurred at higher rates among AI\/AN youths versus White youths. CONCLUSIONS: Death rates for AI\/AN infants and children were higher than for Whites, with regional disparities. Several leading causes of death in the AI\/AN pediatric population are potentially preventable.","Author":"Wong, C. A.; Gachupin, F. C.; Holman, R. C.; MacDorman, M. F.; Cheek, J. E.; Holve, S.; Singleton, R. J.","Author Address":"At the time of the study, Charlene A. Wong was with the Department of Pediatrics, Seattle Children's Hospital\/University of Washington, Seattle. Francine C. Gachupin is with the Department of Family and Community Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Arizona, Tucson. Robert C. Holman is with the Division of High-Consequence Pathogens and Pathology, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA. Marian F. MacDorman is with the Reproductive Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD. James E. Cheek is with the Public Health Program, Department of Family and Community Medicine, School of Medicine, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque. Steve Holve is with Indian Health Service (IHS), Tuba City Regional Healthcare Corporation, Tuba City, AZ. Rosalyn J. Singleton is with the Arctic Investigations Program, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC, Anchorage, AK.","DOI":"10.2105\/ajph.2013.301598","EPub Date":"24 April 2014","ISSN":"1541-0048","Issue":"S3","Journal":"American Journal of Public Health","Keywords":"Adolescent; Alaska\/epidemiology; Cause of Death; Child; Child Mortality\/*ethnology; Child, Preschool; Female; Humans; Indians, North American\/*statistics & numerical data; Infant; Infant Mortality\/*ethnology; Infant, Newborn; Inuits\/*statistics & numerical data; Male; United States\/epidemiology","Language":"eng","Notes":"1541-0048 Wong, Charlene A Gachupin, Francine C Holman, Robert C MacDorman, Marian F Cheek, James E Holve, Steve Singleton, Rosalyn J Journal Article United States Am J Public Health. 2014 Jun;104 Suppl 3:S320-8. doi: 10.2105\/AJPH.2013.301598. Epub 2014 Apr 22.","PMCID":"PMC4035880","Pages":"S320-S328","Title":"American Indian and Alaska Native infant and pediatric mortality, United States, 1999–2009","Volume":"104","Year":"2014","_record_number":"19087","_uuid":"0073c503-064a-44ef-824a-3849a26cf80a","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.2105\/ajph.2013.301598","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0073c503-064a-44ef-824a-3849a26cf80a.json","identifier":"0073c503-064a-44ef-824a-3849a26cf80a","uri":"\/reference\/0073c503-064a-44ef-824a-3849a26cf80a"},{"attrs":{"Author":"EPA","Title":"Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016. Fourth Edition. Technical Documentation Overview","URL":"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/sites\/production\/files\/2016-08\/documents\/technical-documentation-overview-2016.pdf","Year":"2016","_record_number":"25130","_uuid":"00764520-3a1e-4e17-a7fa-eff4047bc54d","reftype":"Government Document"},"child_publication":"\/report\/climate-change-indicators-united-states-2016-4th-edition-technical-documentation-overview","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00764520-3a1e-4e17-a7fa-eff4047bc54d.json","identifier":"00764520-3a1e-4e17-a7fa-eff4047bc54d","uri":"\/reference\/00764520-3a1e-4e17-a7fa-eff4047bc54d"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Laidre, Kristin L.; Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M.; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Ferguson, Steven H.; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P.; Born, Erik W.; Litovka, Dennis; Quakenbush, Lori; Lydersen, Christian; Vongraven, Dag; Ugarte, Fernando","DOI":"10.1111\/cobi.12474","ISSN":"1523-1739","Issue":"3","Journal":"Conservation Biology","Keywords":"circumpolar assessment; climate change; management; subsistence harvest; cambio climático; caza para la subsistencia; evaluación circumpolar; manejo","Pages":"724-737","Title":"Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century","Volume":"29","Year":"2015","_record_number":"24873","_uuid":"0077ea5b-e28a-4ecb-83e8-1250e7f8837c","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1111\/cobi.12474","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0077ea5b-e28a-4ecb-83e8-1250e7f8837c.json","identifier":"0077ea5b-e28a-4ecb-83e8-1250e7f8837c","uri":"\/reference\/0077ea5b-e28a-4ecb-83e8-1250e7f8837c"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"10","Author":"Peterson, D.L.\rMillar, C.I.\rJoyce, L.A.\rFurniss, M.J.\rHalofsky, J.E.\rNeilson, R.P.\rMorelli, T.L.","Date":"November 2011","Institution":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Forest Service","Pages":"118","Place Published":"Pacific Northwest Research Station","Title":"Responding to climate change on national forests: A guidebook for developing adaptation options. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-855","URL":"http:\/\/www.fs.fed.us\/pnw\/pubs\/pnw_gtr855.pdf","Year":"2011","_chapter":"[\"Ch. 8: Ecosystems FINAL\",\"Ch. 21: Northwest FINAL\"]","_record_number":"2475","_uuid":"007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884","reftype":"Report"},"child_publication":"\/report\/usfs-pnw-gtr-855","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884.json","identifier":"007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884","uri":"\/reference\/007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Gabler, Christopher A.; Osland, Michael J.; Grace, James B.; Stagg, Camille L.; Day, Richard H.; Hartley, Stephen B.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Meagan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate3203","ISSN":"1758-678X\r1758-6798","Issue":"2","Journal":"Nature Climate Change","Pages":"142-147","Title":"Macroclimatic Change Expected to Transform Coastal Wetland Ecosystems This Century","URL":"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nclimate\/journal\/v7\/n2\/pdf\/nclimate3203.pdf","Volume":"7","Year":"2017","_record_number":"2805","_uuid":"007be42a-63d2-4554-b7a4-4da82733f1f6","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1038\/nclimate3203","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/007be42a-63d2-4554-b7a4-4da82733f1f6.json","identifier":"007be42a-63d2-4554-b7a4-4da82733f1f6","uri":"\/reference\/007be42a-63d2-4554-b7a4-4da82733f1f6"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Abstract":"The resurgence in cases of neurologic disease caused by West Nile virus (WNV) in the United States in 2012 came as a surprise to the general public and to many non-arbovirus researchers. Following the introduction of WNV into the US in 1999, the number of human infections rose dramatically, peaking in 2002-03. However, cases declined from 2008-11, and it was unclear if the virus would continue to have a low-level endemic transmission pattern with occasional outbreaks, like the related flavivirus, Saint Louis encephalitis virus, or a more active pattern with annual outbreaks, including occasional years with large epidemics, like Japanese encephalitis virus. The large epidemic in 2012 suggests that the United States can expect periodic outbreaks of West Nile fever and neurologic disease in the coming years. In this paper, we consider the causes of the upsurge in WNV infections during the past year and their implications for future research and disease control measures.","Author":"Beasley, D. W.; Barrett, A. D.; Tesh, R. B.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.antiviral.2013.04.015","Date":"Jul","ISSN":"0166-3542","Issue":"1","Journal":"Antiviral Research","Keywords":"Communicable Disease Control\/methods\/organization & administration; Communicable Diseases, Emerging\/*epidemiology\/virology; Humans; United States\/epidemiology; West Nile Fever\/*epidemiology; West Nile virus\/*isolation & purification","Notes":"Beasley, David W C Barrett, Alan D T Tesh, Robert B eng Netherlands 2013\/04\/30 06:00 Antiviral Res. 2013 Jul;99(1):1-5. doi: 10.1016\/j.antiviral.2013.04.015. Epub 2013 Apr 26.","Pages":"1-5","Title":"Resurgence of West Nile neurologic disease in the United States in 2012: What happened? What needs to be done?","Volume":"99","Year":"2013","_record_number":"17989","_uuid":"007d3c7d-9252-4567-b574-39c159298e66","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1016\/j.antiviral.2013.04.015","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/007d3c7d-9252-4567-b574-39c159298e66.json","identifier":"007d3c7d-9252-4567-b574-39c159298e66","uri":"\/reference\/007d3c7d-9252-4567-b574-39c159298e66"},{"attrs":{".publisher":"Copernicus Publications",".reference_type":"0","Author":"Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Hearty, P.; Ruedy, R.; Kelley, M.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Russell, G.; Tselioudis, G.; Cao, J.; Rignot, E.; Velicogna, I.; Tormey, B.; Donovan, B.; Kandiano, E.; von Schuckmann, K.; Kharecha, P.; Legrande, A. N.; Bauer, M.; Lo, K. W.","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-16-3761-2016","Issue":"6","Journal":"Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics","Pages":"3761-3812","Title":"Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: Evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous","Volume":"16","Year":"2016","_record_number":"20084","_uuid":"007f2357-8eee-432d-adfa-5f3413f82cb0","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.5194\/acp-16-3761-2016","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/007f2357-8eee-432d-adfa-5f3413f82cb0.json","identifier":"007f2357-8eee-432d-adfa-5f3413f82cb0","uri":"\/reference\/007f2357-8eee-432d-adfa-5f3413f82cb0"},{"attrs":{"Abstract":"Ecosystems are self-regulating systems that provide societies with food, water, timber, and other resources. As demands for resources increase, management decisions are replacing self-regulating properties. Counter to previous technical approaches that applied simple formulas to estimate sustainable yields of single species, current research recognizes the inherent complexity of ecosystems and the inability to foresee all consequences of interventions across different spatial, temporal, and administrative scales. Ecosystem management is thus more realistically seen as a \"wicked problem\" that has no clear-cut solution. Approaches for addressing such problems include multisector decision-making, institutions that enable management to span across administrative boundaries, adaptive management, markets that incorporate natural capital, and collaborative processes to engage diverse stakeholders and address inequalities. Ecosystem management must avoid two traps: falsely assuming a tame solution and inaction from overwhelming complexity. An incremental approach can help to avoid these traps.","Accession Number":"28428392","Author":"DeFries, R.; Nagendra, H.","Author Address":"Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA. rd2402@columbia.edu.\rSchool of Development, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, India.","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aal1950","Date":"Apr 21","ISSN":"1095-9203 (Electronic)\r0036-8075 (Linking)","Issue":"6335","Journal":"Science","Keywords":"Decision Making; Ecological Parameter Monitoring\/*methods; *Ecosystem; Humans; Natural Resources","Notes":"DeFries, Ruth\rNagendra, Harini\reng\rReview\r2017\/04\/22 06:00\rScience. 2017 Apr 21;356(6335):265-270. doi: 10.1126\/science.aal1950.","Pages":"265-270","Title":"Ecosystem management as a wicked problem","Volume":"356","Year":"2017","_record_number":"2974","_uuid":"0087b9f1-8eec-4ce0-945f-a618cadef99c","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":null,"href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0087b9f1-8eec-4ce0-945f-a618cadef99c.json","identifier":"0087b9f1-8eec-4ce0-945f-a618cadef99c","uri":"\/reference\/0087b9f1-8eec-4ce0-945f-a618cadef99c"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"Sanderson, B.M.; Wehner, M.; Knutti, R.","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-10-2379-2017","Journal":"Geoscientific Model Development","Pages":"2379-2395","Title":"Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessment","Volume":"10","Year":"2017","_record_number":"20582","_uuid":"008eb02f-ddb4-43a9-b61f-aad470a66dc8","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.5194\/gmd-10-2379-2017","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/008eb02f-ddb4-43a9-b61f-aad470a66dc8.json","identifier":"008eb02f-ddb4-43a9-b61f-aad470a66dc8","uri":"\/reference\/008eb02f-ddb4-43a9-b61f-aad470a66dc8"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2015.11.016","Date":"2016\/01\/01\/","ISSN":"0013-9351","Journal":"Environmental Research","Keywords":"Climate change; Fetal health; Urban sustainability","Pages":"158-164","Title":"Climate change and fetal health: The impacts of exposure to extreme temperatures in New York City","Volume":"144","Year":"2016","_record_number":"25317","_uuid":"00935259-887c-4e73-a936-90759dd846e1","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1016\/j.envres.2015.11.016","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00935259-887c-4e73-a936-90759dd846e1.json","identifier":"00935259-887c-4e73-a936-90759dd846e1","uri":"\/reference\/00935259-887c-4e73-a936-90759dd846e1"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"10","Author":"Staudinger, Michelle D.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Bryan, Alexander M.","Institution":"Northeast Climate Science Center","Pages":"201","Place Published":"Amherst, MA","Series Title":"DOI Northeast Climate Science Center Report","Title":"Integrating Climate Change into Northeast and Midwest State Wildlife Action Plans","URL":"http:\/\/necsc.umass.edu\/biblio\/integrating-climate-change-northeast-and-midwest-state-wildlife-action-plans","Year":"2015","_record_number":"21920","_uuid":"0095368f-c79d-47b5-89bd-856b38752d03","reftype":"Report"},"child_publication":"\/report\/integrating-climate-change-into-northeast-midwest-state-wildlife-action-plans","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/0095368f-c79d-47b5-89bd-856b38752d03.json","identifier":"0095368f-c79d-47b5-89bd-856b38752d03","uri":"\/reference\/0095368f-c79d-47b5-89bd-856b38752d03"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Son, SeungHyun; Wang, Menghua; Harding, Lawrence W.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2014.01.018","ISSN":"00344257","Journal":"Remote Sensing of Environment","Pages":"109-119","Title":"Satellite-measured Net Primary Production in the Chesapeake Bay","URL":"http:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0034425714000315","Volume":"144","Year":"2014","_record_number":"2936","_uuid":"00962646-eeb1-4e40-a590-e1960bed77b8","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":null,"href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00962646-eeb1-4e40-a590-e1960bed77b8.json","identifier":"00962646-eeb1-4e40-a590-e1960bed77b8","uri":"\/reference\/00962646-eeb1-4e40-a590-e1960bed77b8"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Follett, R. F., ; S. Mooney, ; J. A. Morgan, ; K. Paustian, ; L. H. Allen Jr, ; S. Archibeque, ; S. J. Del Grosso, ; J. D. Derner, ; F. Dijkstra, ; A. J. Franzluebbers, ; L. Kurkalova, ; B. McCarl, ; S. Ogle, ; W. Parton, ; J. Petersen, ; G. P. Robertson, ; M. Schoeneberger, ; T. West, ; J. Williams","Title":"Carbon Sequestration and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Agriculture: Challenges and Opportunities. Council On Agricultural Science and Technology, Issue Paper, 112 pp","Year":"2011","_record_number":"2090","_uuid":"009efed2-9425-4eab-b696-196335752f4a","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":null,"href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/009efed2-9425-4eab-b696-196335752f4a.json","identifier":"009efed2-9425-4eab-b696-196335752f4a","uri":"\/reference\/009efed2-9425-4eab-b696-196335752f4a"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"Hall, Timothy; Hereid, Kelly","DOI":"10.1002\/2015GL063652","Issue":"9","Journal":"Geophysical Research Letters","Keywords":"hurricanes; statistical modeling; risk analysis; 3372 Tropical cyclones; 4313 Extreme events; 4318 Statistical analysis; 4333 Disaster risk analysis and assessment","Pages":"3482-3485","Title":"The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughts","Volume":"42","Year":"2015","_record_number":"19740","_uuid":"00a39c91-e1f7-426e-83ff-8f3205c55580","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1002\/2015GL063652","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00a39c91-e1f7-426e-83ff-8f3205c55580.json","identifier":"00a39c91-e1f7-426e-83ff-8f3205c55580","uri":"\/reference\/00a39c91-e1f7-426e-83ff-8f3205c55580"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Author":"Das, Tapash; Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Vano, Julie A.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.","DOI":"10.1029\/2011GL049660","Issue":"23","Journal":"Geophysical Research Letters","Keywords":"climate change; hydroclimatology; streamflow; western U.S.; 1630 Impacts of global change; 1631 Land\/atmosphere interactions; 1637 Regional climate change; 1655 Water cycles; 1833 Hydroclimatology","Pages":"L23403","Title":"The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes","Volume":"38","Year":"2011","_record_number":"20917","_uuid":"00a636d2-91ee-41bf-a33f-a16dc49b3289","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1029\/2011GL049660","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00a636d2-91ee-41bf-a33f-a16dc49b3289.json","identifier":"00a636d2-91ee-41bf-a33f-a16dc49b3289","uri":"\/reference\/00a636d2-91ee-41bf-a33f-a16dc49b3289"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Cheaib, Alissar; Badeau, Vincent; Boe, Julien; Chuine, Isabelle; Delire, Christine; Dufrêne, Eric; François, Christophe; Gritti, Emmanuel S; Legay, Myriam; Pagé, Christian","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2012.01764.x","ISSN":"1461-0248","Issue":"6","Journal":"Ecology Letters","Pages":"533-544","Title":"Climate change impacts on tree ranges: Model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty","Volume":"15","Year":"2012","_record_number":"22567","_uuid":"00a8c280-09c0-4002-a8f5-53ef7b345fff","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2012.01764.x","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00a8c280-09c0-4002-a8f5-53ef7b345fff.json","identifier":"00a8c280-09c0-4002-a8f5-53ef7b345fff","uri":"\/reference\/00a8c280-09c0-4002-a8f5-53ef7b345fff"},{"attrs":{"Author":"Melton, Paula","ISSN":"1938-3274","Issue":"10","Journal":"Environmental Building News","Keywords":"added by ERG","Pages":"1-10","Title":"Designing for the next century's weather","Volume":"22","Year":"2013","_record_number":"22979","_uuid":"00aa37c2-798b-4ad5-b52d-5cae5fe69088","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/designing-next-centurys-weather","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00aa37c2-798b-4ad5-b52d-5cae5fe69088.json","identifier":"00aa37c2-798b-4ad5-b52d-5cae5fe69088","uri":"\/reference\/00aa37c2-798b-4ad5-b52d-5cae5fe69088"},{"attrs":{".reference_type":"0","Abstract":"The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850–2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%–40% of the individual model's historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%–60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend [ranging from −0.1 to −1.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century−1; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1] over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble–mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ~60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ~1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed.","Author":"Wei Cheng; John C. H. Chiang; Dongxiao Zhang","DOI":"10.1175\/jcli-d-12-00496.1","Issue":"18","Journal":"Journal of Climate","Keywords":"Meridional overturning circulation,Climate models,Ensembles,Climate variability,Multidecadal variability,Trends","Pages":"7187-7197","Title":"Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 models: RCP and historical simulations","Volume":"26","Year":"2013","_record_number":"20673","_uuid":"00ad92a7-e213-4a3f-b5b8-92cb1f129a07","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1175\/jcli-d-12-00496.1","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00ad92a7-e213-4a3f-b5b8-92cb1f129a07.json","identifier":"00ad92a7-e213-4a3f-b5b8-92cb1f129a07","uri":"\/reference\/00ad92a7-e213-4a3f-b5b8-92cb1f129a07"},{"attrs":{"Abstract":"Questions of whether trophic cascades occur in Isle Royale National Park (IRNP) or Yellowstone National Park's northern range (NR) cannot lead to simple, precise, or definitive answers. Such answers are limited especially by multicausality in the NR and by complex temporal variation in IRNP. Spatial heterogeneity, contingency, and nonequilibrium dynamics also work against simple answers in IRNP and NR. The existence of a trophic cascade in IRNP and NR also depends greatly on how it is defined. For example, some conceive of trophic cascades as entailing essentially any indirect effect of predation. This may be fine, but the primary intellectual value of such a conception may be to assess an important view in community ecology that most species are connected to most other species in a food web through a network of complicated, albeit weak, indirect effects. These circumstances that work against simple answers likely apply to many ecosystems. Despite the challenges of assessing the existence of trophic cascades in IRNP and NR, such assessments result in considerable insights about a more fundamental question: What causes population abundance to fluctuate?","Author":"Peterson, Rolf O.; John A. Vucetich; Joseph M. Bump; Douglas W. Smith","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-ecolsys-120213-091634","Issue":"1","Journal":"Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics","Keywords":"moose,elk,wolf,predation,herbivory,ecosystem","Pages":"325-345","Title":"Trophic cascades in a multicausal world: Isle Royale and Yellowstone","Volume":"45","Year":"2014","_record_number":"26423","_uuid":"00b08ed0-179f-46c3-8f82-123a2244366f","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1146\/annurev-ecolsys-120213-091634","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00b08ed0-179f-46c3-8f82-123a2244366f.json","identifier":"00b08ed0-179f-46c3-8f82-123a2244366f","uri":"\/reference\/00b08ed0-179f-46c3-8f82-123a2244366f"},{"attrs":{"Abstract":"Aim Many competing hypotheses seek to identify the mechanisms behind species richness gradients. Yet, the determinants of species turnover over broad scales are uncertain. We test whether environmental dissimilarity predicts biotic turnover spatially and temporally across an array of environmental variables and spatial scales using recently observed climate changes as a pseudo‐experimental opportunity. Location Canada. Methods We used an extensive database of observation records of 282 Canadian butterfly species collected between 1900 and 2010 to characterize spatial and temporal turnover based on Jaccard indices. We compare relationships between spatial turnover and differences in an array of relevant environmental conditions, including aspects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, primary productivity and land cover. Measurements were taken within 100‐, 200‐ and 400‐km grid cells, respectively. We tested the relative importance of each variable in predicting spatial turnover using bootstrap analysis. Finally, we tested for effects of temperature and precipitation change on temporal turnover, including distinctly accounting for turnover under individual species’ potential dispersal limitations. Results Temperature differences between areas correlate with spatial turnover in butterfly assemblages, independently of distance, sampling differences or the spatial resolution of the analysis. Increasing temperatures are positively related to biotic turnover within quadrats through time. Limitations on species dispersal may cause observed biotic turnover to be lower than expected given the magnitude of temperature changes through time. Main conclusions Temperature differences can account for spatial trends in biotic dissimilarity and turnover through time in areas where climate is changing. Butterfly communities are changing quickly in some areas, probably reflecting the dispersal capacities of individual species. However, turnover is lower through time than expected in many areas, suggesting that further work is needed to understand the factors that limit dispersal across broad regions. Our results illustrate the large‐scale effects of climate change on biodiversity in areas with strong environmental gradients.","Author":"Lewthwaite, Jayme M. M.; Debinski, Diane M.; Kerr, Jeremy T.","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12553","Issue":"4","Journal":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","Pages":"459-471","Title":"High community turnover and dispersal limitation relative to rapid climate change","Volume":"26","Year":"2017","_record_number":"25710","_uuid":"00b388e8-5db4-4aa7-acbb-c1c8237aa4bd","reftype":"Journal Article"},"child_publication":"\/article\/10.1111\/geb.12553","href":"https:\/\/data.globalchange.gov\/reference\/00b388e8-5db4-4aa7-acbb-c1c8237aa4bd.json","identifier":"00b388e8-5db4-4aa7-acbb-c1c8237aa4bd","uri":"\/reference\/00b388e8-5db4-4aa7-acbb-c1c8237aa4bd"}]