NCAA first round review

Mar 21, 2009

Following up on my injury post where I defined net efficiency margin (NEM) as a tempo-free and opponent-strength-independent team performance metric, I decided to review the first round performances using NEM. Some of the results will be obvious, but removing the strength of the opponent from the comparison can unearth some hidden gems from Thursday's and Friday's games.

All raw efficiency data is from the sublime kenpom.com. I used the ratings through last Sunday's games to make the comparisons. (For my second round reviews, I'll update the ratings through the end of the first round, and so on.)

Best games (by combined total NEM)

Result

Total NEM

1.

UCLA

65

VCU

64

43.0

VCU's -16.6 defensive NEM was not quite enough to pull off the upset.

2.

Arizona St.

66

Temple

57

41.8

Temple puts up a good fight, but the Sun Devils' 31.5 total NEM was too much.

3.

Texas A&M

79

BYU

66

39.2

This one was all Aggies.

4.

Michigan

62

Clemson

59

39.1

Defense (-20.7 NEM) leads Michigan to the win.

5.

Marquette

58

Utah St.

57

38.9

The Golden Eagles squeak by in a defensive showdown with both teams posting defensive NEMs better than -18.7.

Top overall performances

Team

Opponent

NEM

1.

Connecticut

Chattanooga

64.7

What do you expect with a 103-47 final?

2.

North Carolina

Radford

49.0

Another #1 seed takes care of business.

3.

Cleveland St.

Wake Forest

45.0

Led by their offense, the Vikings shock the Deacs.

4.

Texas A&M

BYU

42.8

The Aggies and their second round opponent Connecticut both show up in the top four.

5.

Oklahoma

Morgan St.

42.3

A balanced performance from the Sooners shows they may be back to full strength.

Top offensive performances

Team

Opponent

NEM

1.

Cleveland St.

Wake Forest

37.3

The Vikings jumped out to a 9-0 lead and never looked back, led by a 9.1% turnover rate and 52.3 effective FG%.

2.

Gonzaga

Akron

36.9

The Zags continued their recent offensive hot streak, but the defense (56th NEM out of 64 teams in the first round) is a concern.

3.

Duke

Binghamton

28.8

The Elliot Williams experiment continues to pay off on the offensive side of the ball (23.4 offensive NEM in their last 10). Unfortunately, it's still not paying off on defense (-3.6 defensive NEM over the same stretch, after -16.6 over their first 25 games).

4.

Texas A&M

BYU

26.6

The Aggies hope to duplicate their strong offensive showing in the second round against the stout Connecticut defense.

5.

Dayton

West Virginia

26.5

The Flyers ranked 144th in adjusted offensive efficiency coming in against the 15th ranked defense, but shot well enough and took care of the ball to post their season high offensive NEM.

Top defensive performances (lower scores are better)

Team

Opponent

NEM

1.

Connecticut

Chattanooga

-45.5

Already known for their defense, the Huskies put up their best defensive effort of the year according to NEM.

2.

North Carolina

Radford

-33.6

Could these Tar Heels be channeling the 2006 Florida team that played a good but not great defense (-11.6 NEM) through the regular season but went kicked it into high gear (-24.1 NEM) in the tournament?

3.

Syracuse

S.F. Austin

-33.1

The Orange continue the tough defense they showed in the Big East tournament (-16.9 NEM over their last nine games).

4.

S.F. Austin

Syracuse

-32.5

This game was a defensive showdown (or an offensive nightmare?) as both teams posted defensive NEMs in the top 4 of the first round.

5.

Siena

Ohio St.

-28.0

The Saints needed all the defense they could muster to knock off Ohio State in double overtime.

Worst overall performances

Team

Opponent

NEM

1.

Chattanooga

Connecticut

-40.0

When you're on the bottom five lists for both offense and defense, you know it's a bad day.

2.

Radford

North Carolina

-18.1

The Heels were not nearly as potent on offense as usual against Radford, but it's hard to separate the absence of Ty Lawson.

3.

Morgan St.

Oklahoma

-16.2

4.

Wake Forest

Cleveland St.

-10.3

5.

Portland St.

Xavier

-9.3

A team that many thought had a chance to surprise goes home early.

Worst offensive performances

Team

Opponent

NEM

1.

S.F. Austin

Syracuse

-29.2

2.

Chattanooga

Connecticut

-27.7

The Mocs were dreadful across the board (largely due to UConn), shooting 29.6% eFG and gathering only 19% of the available offensive rebounds.

3.

Radford

North Carolina

-25.2

4.

Morgan St.

Oklahoma

-15.5

5.

Ohio St.

Siena

-11.3

The Buckeyes have had a problem with offensive rebounding all year (ranked 285th for the season, 21.5% vs. Siena), but the added atypical poor shooting (45.8% effective FG vs. Siena, ranked 13th in the regular season) eventually doomed the Buckeyes in double overtime.

Worst defensive performances (higher scores are worse)

Team

Opponent

NEM

1.

Wake Forest

Cleveland St.

22.6

Cleveland State scored 1.27 points per possession on the 14th best adjusted defensive efficiency. The Deacs defense was significantly worse over their last 15 games (-4.4 defensive NEM, 8-7 record) than during their 16-0 start (-19.2 defensive NEM).