Voter Turnout Is Always Decisive

IVoter turnout is the key to election night results. Some will contend that the recent June 5 primary, the first time that California experience the new “top two” electoral system, was an aberration due to unusually low turnout.

While that may be true, the key for political pros is using the turnout, whatever it may be, to your candidate’s advantage.

The Sacramento Bee reports that in the recent June primary, in the Golden State’s voter turnout was a miserable 31.1% statewide. The previous low was 41.9% in a presidential-year primary.

Here in Marin County, June’s voter turnout was a respectable 49.81%. We beat the statewide average by more than 18.5%. Sonoma County (the land of the slow vote count), thanks to vigorously contested local elections, enjoyed an admirable 55.5% countywide turnout. That’s one of the highest in the state. Kudos.

Would the marquee North Bay/North Coast 2nd Congressional District race, basically between the now front runner Assemblyman Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael), Republican Dan Roberts of Tiburon and Inverness super progressive Norman Solomon, have turned out any different if there had been a higher voter turnout?

Given that the GOP’s Roberts won a berth in the November runoff by only 172 votes out of 150,000 cast, the answer is a decisive “yes.” A slightly higher turnout would have brought more Demos to the pols and Solomon would have made the all-important runoff to face Huffman in November.

In retrospect Solomon should have devoted his ample resources to a more vigorous get-out-the vote effort.

For insiders, it’s to be noted that The Bee newspapers (consistently the leaders when it comes to statewide politics) reports that this year fully 65% of the statewide vote was by mail. That’s in contrast to the prior record of 62%. What we formally called “absentee balloting” is inching up. It’s already the majority’ of voters’ clear preferecne.

Among political pros, there is no question that postal voting produces higher voter participation, at least in California. Of course that helps some and hurts others.

The day is soon coming when California will emulate Oregon. Then, virtually all ballots will be cast either electronically or by mail. The only in-person balloting remaining will be (purely as a courtesy to tradition and old-tiimers) at county courthouses and selected city halls.