I am in Iceland, among the most independent people on earth

No more Latin, no more French… The European Parliament has risen for the summer. One or two MEPs will have wangled themselves invitations to the Aegean or the Italian lakes. Many more, in fairness, will try to get through the next five weeks without setting foot in an airport terminal. Me? I'm in Iceland, talking about what EU membership would mean in practice.

I've argued before that, for all the gloating their application has provoked in Brussels, Icelanders will end up turning against EU membership. It seems to be happening now: recent polls show a two-to-one majority against accession. What, after all, does EU membership offer Iceland? Higher costs, reduced competitiveness, diminished democracy, truncated trade, sterile seas – oh, and Brussels jobs for a fortunate few. At an open meeting at the University of Reykjavik, I was impressed by the extent to which voters had already acquainted themselves with the facts.

Incidentally, it's preposterously hot and sunny here, as you can see in this video interview which I recorded with a local newspaper. The normally grey sea is an unwonted Mediterranean cobalt; the air tastes so clean and new that you gulp it down greedily. This is a heart-stoppingly lovely country, and its people are as brave and stubborn and self-reliant as any you'll find. They won't vote to give up their independence; I know it in my bones.