Monday, April 9, 2012

What to Expect This Summer

I predict an increasing tide of information about Mormonism this summer. Expect Romney's faith to be put under the media microscope once the nomination is formally secured (I think it's basically certain now).
I expect lots of propaganda making it clear that Mormons are NOT Christians, will be put forward, although not directly by Obama---he'll launder it through surrogates. It may actually be some of the highest quality theological discussion in the public sphere in a long time, truth be known.

I predict at least one big riot this summer, with at least heavy racial overtones. I predict that Zimmerman will be charged for SOMETHING but acquitted.

I predict that the price of gas will stay well over $4 in most of the US. I believe that this number will be the key to Romney's victory. I believe that Romney will fight harder for the presidency than did McCain. Perhaps he believes he is the man of the Mormon 'White Horse' prophecy. I believe that you'll see the Mormons put together a very impressive 'ground game' that will only be recognized by the MSM in retrospect.

I agree completely with your 1. And reservedly with #3. I don't think that the gasoline price alone is decisive, unless you mean that in the sense that it might add +1% to the vote in an election that is closer than 1%. Rather "the economy" in the larger sense seems to be the main issue. Gas is simply a metonym for the economy.

Romney does actually seem to want the Presidency, and not just the Republican nomination, in a way that McCain never seemed to.

#2 I disagree with. Agreed that there will be something like a race riot somewhere -- there have been for the last few years! But disagree about Zimmerman. Zimmerman may eventually get charged with something, although even that I am having trouble foreseeing. You've got to get a grand jury to agree to that. But there is no way he will be either acquitted or convicted before November -- sadly, our justice system is too degraded to perform any high-profile trial in a matter of months, even when it wants to. (And in this case, I have a hard time seeing both sides willing to push to expedite matters; Obama in particular will have every incentive to get the trial (if any) to happen after the election.) Just determining the venue alone will probably take months (if some charge is finally made).

Tim,You're making the mistake of equating nice with Christian. That's ok, most Christians make that mistake also. The average Mormon, IMO, is better on orthopraxis than the average Christian, but their conception of God is from the perspective of orthodox Christians, fatally defective. Expect more on this from the media, which will probably interview some honest to God theologians who aren't heretics, this summer.BTW, I don't include Obama as a Christian---I don't think he's a Moslem either. The last president that I will with confidence greater than 50% say is Christian would be Carter (any democrat who takes a pro-life line despite the massive status hit in the circles he runs in is probably genuine in the belief).

Leonard,The price of gas is the only economic number that you can't bullshit easily. All the other numbers are insanely obfuscated right now and will continue to be until the election is over. Your concept of the state of Florida basically fillibustering the trial is pretty interesting---they might well do that.

Olave,I'm optimistic about no unprecedented levels of violence until 2014 or so. After that my estimation of the level of violence worsens markedly.I think it is likely Romney will win this election. I also think it is likely that within a year or so of it, he'll wish he didn't. For instance, with the economic fundamentals we're sleepwalking with now, under a Republican administration the media would be positively apocalpytic---I'm not sure how adversely the economy would react to a media that all of the sudden remembers that U3 is a BS number and U6 is only marginally closer to reality.

Erik,The Old Testament prescribes a quality control for false prophets. Should they claim divine revelation and their prophecy fail to come to pass, they are to be stoned---in the old school sense, not the California one. Thus the concession stand for selling stones.