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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 02 1998
SATELLITE FIXES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT DANIELLE
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NOW 055/22 KNOTS.
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT DANIELLE HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS...BUT STILL HAS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
70 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER 26C OR WARMER WATER FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS VALUES OCCUR.
SLOW BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES
NORTHEAST THEN EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.
BERMUDA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THE
11Z OBSERVATION OF 34 KNOTS WITH A GUST TO 47 KNOTS.
THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 220 NMI TO
REPRESENT THE DISTANCE OF BERMUDA FROM THE CENTER. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY/
TONIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
DANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE EAST THEREAFTER. ALL OF THE 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE CLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION WITH VARIATIONS IN SPEED...MOST
NOTABLE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A
NORTHEASTWARD COURSE WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION THROUGH 48
HOURS...THEN A TURN BACK TO THE EAST BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 36.7N 64.2W 70 KTS
12HR VT 03/0000Z 39.3N 60.3W 65 KTS
24HR VT 03/1200Z 42.8N 55.5W 55 KTS
36HR VT 04/0000Z 45.0N 48.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 46.0N 40.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z 47.0N 24.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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