Recent Submissions

Dear Readers,
I am very pleased to introduce the new 53(125) issue of the Scientific Journals of the Maritime University of Szczecin.
Another year of activity on the publishing market is behind us. In 2017, the Scientific Journals of the Maritime University
of Szczecin published as many as 61 scientific papers: 15 in issue 49(121), 13 in issue 50(122), 14 in issue 51(123) and 19
in issue 52(124). The scientific articles published in 2017 were prepared by 105 authors (in total, without repetitions).
The percentage of Polish researchers in this group was 77.1% out of 61 publications. Internationally, the greatest contribution
was from academics affiliated to Croatian institutes – 6 authors (5.7% of the total number of authors) and Iranian
institutes – 7 authors (6.6% of the total number of authors), followed by Germany – 4 authors, Australia – 3 authors,
Sweden – 2 authors and Finland and the Netherlands – 1 author each.
The current issue of the journal includes recent findings on shipbuilding, water transport, navigation and marine traffic
engineering. The introductory paper for this issue entitled “Predicting the shipping market by spreads of timecharter
rates” has been prepared by Prof. Tsz Leung Yip – Deputy Director at the C.Y. Tung International Centre for Maritime
Studies, lecturer at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and a world-class specialist in logistics and marine transport.
This article explores the predictability of spreads between long-term and short-term timecharter rates on spot freight
rates. This publication has been financed by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Poland from
the funds devoted to science-popularising activity: grant No. 790/P-DUN/2016. I hope that this material will prove informative
to all readers interested in the issues of marine transport.
The Marine Technology and Innovation section includes papers on remote and unmanned navigation of vessels,
equipment facilitating SAR actions as well as using state-of-the-art models in reliability analysis and ship design.
The section devoted to Navigation and Maritime Transport includes articles on exploitation aspects of using magnetic
compasses, ship steering Nomoto model and ship traffic models application.
The Transport Engineering section is devoted to inland transportation and marine traffic engineering. Moreover, it
discusses the quantitative analysis of the impact of fishing ships’ traffic streams on traffic streams of merchant vessels
in the Polish maritime areas.
The section entitled Miscellaneous includes articles investigating the analysis of parameters influencing the suitability
of the surface unit for search and rescue operation at sea as well as impact of Liquefied Natural Gas terminal on gas
distribution and bunkering network in Poland.
I would like to take this opportunity to encourage authors from all over the world to publish their research in the Scientific
Journals of the Maritime University of Szczecin. All readers are invited to visit our website, which now has a more
intuitive layout. Under the http://scientific-journals.eu/ address it is possible to access the online version of the current
issue as well as archival ones.

This paper has explored the predictability of spreads between long-term and short-term timecharter rates on
spot freight rates. The spread between long-term and short-term rates (or the slope of the yield curve) is often
used as a leading economic indicator of economic activities. This concept has been extended to the shipping
market in this paper and the probability that the spot freight rate will increase or decrease has been determined.
Using the spread between the timecharter rates on long-term and short-term charter contracts, the direction of
spot freight rates has been predicted with the dynamic probit model, which is used to estimate the probability
of discrete events. Evidence has been drawn from Panamax dry bulk ships for future weekly, quarterly and
biyearly changes of spot freight rates. While the dynamic probit model has shown moderate predictive power,
the weekly model has shown that the market has a relatively longer memory than the quarterly and biyearly
models.

In the present study, the reliability evaluation application during design, maintenance and repair phases have
been investigated for the girder of a ship’s hull. The objective of the project was to develop reliability-based
methods which are to be used for the design of ship structures, in particular by the calibration of the safety factors
in the design rules. In order to evaluate the structural strength, the extended model of the ultimate limit state
of the hull-girder, regarding corrosion and fatigue defects, has been used based using a time-dependent probabilistic
analysis. Time-dependent reliability has been evaluated using the required minimum elastic section
modulus; in the case of fatigue in a ship’s deck this process has been done using mechanical fracture and the
S-N curve. The results from the reliability evaluation using the Monte-Carlo simulation method and First-order
reliability methods (FORM), indicated that these two methods agreed well. Analysis of the corrosion defect
reliability showed a decrease of the structure’s reliability during its lifetime; hence it is possible to use the
reliability criteria in the design phase in order to achieve a better perception of the structure’s operation during
its lifetime with regard to environmental conditions. A comparison between the fatigue analysis results showed
that the fracture mechanics method gave more conservative results compared to the S-N curve method, because
of the way it considers early crack size.

that is fast approaching. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is the result of an enormous increase in information
being acquired, stored, processed, and transmitted The effect of this has been smart domestic appliances, robots,
telephones, production machines, and other objects, visible everywhere in everyday life. There are obviously
many advantages to the introduction of smart vehicles and attempts to introduce smart cars into traffic are already
in progress. Smart ships are also currently attracting much attention. RINA organized three international
conferences on this subject in a short space of time. An attempt to send a fully autonomous experimental ship
across the Atlantic is already in progress. Although technically it would be possible to already build smart
ships, there are many practical problems to be solved before they could be put into operation. Apart from
purely technical problems there are problems of the economy, safety, security, and environmental protection as
well as legal and political problems. There are also important problems regarding employment, training, and
human relations. Questions are now being asked as to whether smart ships would be fully autonomous, remote
controlled, or manned with a skeleton crew, and who will ultimately be responsible for the ship in question and
how smart ships will affect sea traffic. Some of these problems have been discussed in this paper.

This paper presents the basic principles of SAR (Search and Rescue) and CSAR (Combat Search and Rescue)
missions, with the SAR support systems installed on-board Polish and German military helicopters presented
in more detail. Mi8/17 and W3PL “Głuszec” helicopters with an integrated avionics system (designed and
constructed in the Air Force Institute of Technology) used in combination with an on-board weaponry system
are designed to undertake CSAR missions. A TOPLITE observation-targeting head (with TV and FLIR thermal
cameras, for day and night operation respectively) and a RSC125G on-board radio direction finder were used to
search for survivors. The weaponry system of the W3PL “Głuszec” helicopter is involved in supporting CSAR
search-rescue tasks, e.g. functions of targeting with the use of a Head-Up Display (HUD) (through the integrated
ballistic computer) and imaging with the use of a TOPLITE head monitor.

The following paper presents a novel method for approximating the fall trajectories of small, lightweight oil
binders, used during oil spill clean-up operation at sea. Due to the weight, size and shape of the binders, the fall
trajectory is highly dependent on the direction and strength of the wind, as well as the rotations and positions
of individual binders when dropped. Since a large quantity of tightly packed binders are dropped at once, it is
highly inconvenient to calculate the precise trajectory of each binder when its exact initial rotation and position
inside the container are not known. The aim of this study is to predict the exact moment and position of the
drop, as well as the oil binders’ spread, considering wind conditions, airplane velocity and height.

Hydrodynamic shape optimization plays an increasingly important role in the shipping industry. To optimize
ship hull and propeller shapes for minimum total (friction+wave) calm-water resistance and maximum open
water efficiency, respectively, the main particulars of a hull and propeller model are considered as design variables.
The optimization problem is performed by using an integrated hull-propeller system optimization problem
(HPSOP) code in a multi-level and multi-point methodology in early-stage ship design. Three numerical
methods with variable fidelity are employed to carry out the hydrodynamic performance analysis of a ship’s
hull and propeller. A ship and its propeller are selected as initial models to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed
optimization procedure. The numerical results show that the developed technique is efficient and robust
for hydrodynamic design problems.

In this paper a simple four-point, in terms of time, but eight-value in total, identification method has been
developed for the second-order linear Nomoto steering model. The algorithm intrinsically uses the zigzag test
data in that it inherited some principles of the well-known procedure for the first-order model, from which
it is essentially derived. The performance evaluation was then conducted with both simulated and real data.
However, the results of these early, unprecedented efforts are far from satisfactory. Some potential sources of
difficulties have been discussed. This calls for further research and improvement in order to provide a practical
application of the method.

At present, providing a clear presentation of the navigational situation around a navigator’s own ship (OS) is
one of the most important issues facing device manufacturers. Integration of navigational devices on the bridge
has made it possible to transfer information and present it in the form chosen by the navigator screen. However,
this may cause a decrease in the clarity of information and hamper its interpretation. The ability to select the
best information, and that which is most needed at a given moment, depends on navigator proficiency. Vectors
are still the basic form of the graphic presentation of radar-tracked object data. However, the ability to track
more objects at the same time in crowded areas results in a decrease in readability and can cause errors. This
article introduces the possibility of presenting information about collision danger in the form of Dangerous
Courses Sectors (DCS) together with an analysis of changes in these during typical ship encounter situations.
DCS are calculated on the base of Dangerous Passing Areas (DPA) as bearings on the marginal points of these
areas.

This article has looked into the role of the magnetic compass in providing navigational safety for ships. The
existing requirements of the magnetic compass for safe navigation in case the gyro compass breaks-down and
in case of terrorists abusing GPS signals do not solve the problems that occur in everyday life. Therefore, a new
rational requirement has been proposed for the accuracy and frequency of deviation adjustment work assuring
the safety and cost effectiveness of navigation. Vessel owners and masters have responsibilities to ensure that
magnetic compasses are maintained in good working order, are adjusted and accompanied by a table or curve
of residual deviations. This article has outlined the most urgent problems for the adjustment of magnetic compasses
that apply to all ships irrespective of size and navigation area. The proposed method has been verified
experimentally.

This paper presents the method used for the creation of ship traffic models in Southern Baltic Traffic Separation
Schemes (TSS). The analysis of ship traffic was performed by means of statistical methods with the use of historical
AIS data. The paper presents probabilistic models of ship traffic’s spatial distribution and its parameters.
The results showed that there is a correlation between the standard deviation of traffic flow and TSS lane width
that can be used in practical applications to ensure the safety of navigation; improve navigation efficiency, safety
and risk analysis in given area, and for the creation of a general model of ship traffic flow.

The Baltic Sea is crisscrossed by several dense vessel traffic routes. Growing shipping traffic increases the
likelihood of collisions. A quantitative analysis of the impact of fishing vessel traffic streams on streams of
merchant vessel traffic aims to identify areas of intense traffic of this type and to assess the potential risks. The
identification of intersections of fishing vessel routes and merchant shipping traffic allows us to identify spots
of potential collisions. The analysis made use of the IALA IWRAP Mk2 program and AIS data collected from
April 1, 2013 to March 31, 2014.

A process is an ordered set of related activities taking place in a given time. Processes are present in all branches
of the economy, engineering, science, etc. Due to the huge amount of data produced the rapid development of
data mining techniques has been observed. Similar methods are also used in the context of processes and are
called process mining. The main task of process mining is to create a process model, which is used to reason
about the process and to make decisions inside it. The process model may be used to discuss responsibilities,
simulations, predictions, etc. The main data structures in process mining are event logs. It is always very important
to have correct data which makes creating a reliable process model possible. In this paper the basic
guidelines for recording such event logs have been described and conclusions were drawn. The main focus of
this research was transport problems.

This paper presents an original kinematic method for the assessment of the safe parameters of waterway bends.
The proposed method has been based on the analysis of the results obtained through the use of the developed
simulation model which allowed for the examination of all the physically available paths of a ship’s centre of
gravity. The results of the simulation were divided into defined subsets that enabled the assessment of the safe
parameters of waterway bends. This paper also presents the calculations that were carried out for the theoretical
reference bend.

The presented method for defining the conditions of safe operation of marine ferries in ferry terminals allows
verification of shipowner ferry designs. In the first stage of this method, simulations are used to determine
the allowable wind speed. The second stage comprises simulations of ferry berthing aimed at defining safe
manoeuvring areas, the energy of berthing impact and propeller stream speeds at allowable wind speeds. The
method was used in the design of a 228 m long hybrid ferry.

The article presents an original two-stage simulation method for the optimization of seaport parameters. Presentation
of the method is based on example of parameter optimization of the outer container port in Świnoujście.
Presented method uses two limitations of the objective function related to safety of manoeuvring and mooring
of ships. It consist of two stages, first one is carried out for the parameters defined in the preliminary stage of
design. On the basis of results from this stage, layout and other parameters of port waterways can be adjusted
to satisfy assumed safety criteria. The second stage uses the parameters established in the first stage. It allows
for small adjustments which will not change the safety of manoeuvring. The result of second stage is optimal
parameters of the examined port waterways.

A key element in ensuring the safety of the port of Świnoujście against oil spills is to ensure combat units are
properly equipped with oil spill collecting equipment, and that they have the ability to effectively use the existing
resources. All of this should be properly reflected in the port’s contingency plans. It is also important to
develop tactics for oil spill combat action that take into account both local conditions and worst case scenarios
with parallel checking of these scenarios during the exercise and the table-top exercises. The use of computer
simulation to forecast oil spill behaviour allows for better arrangement and more efficient use of resources and
the optimum development of antipollution action and tactics.
The specific location of the Świnoujście harbour, its breakwaters shape, and that shipping traffic is allowed only
on the approaching waterway, may lead one to the conclusion that the port of Świnoujście is completely safe
from any possible petroleum pollution after a ships’ collision and the antipollution action should focus only
on maximising the protection of the coast. To verify this assumption, simulations of an oil spill spreading after
a vessels’ collision were carried out. The purpose of the simulations was to determine the most unfavourable
weather conditions which would lead to the port of Świnoujście being polluted, and to define the best tactics for
conducting oil spill combat actions under such conditions. The simulations clearly indicated that, with a particular
combination of weather conditions, pollution could occur inside the port. It could result in vessel traffic
suspension and huge financial losses. Simulations were conducted using the PISCES II oil spill simulator.

Advanced new methods of data transmission used in River Information Services are described. Implementation
of GMDSS subsystems and analyses of the feasibility of applying satellite-based telecommunications systems
to integrated navigational data transmission at the RIS-PL is discussed. This article presents a model of the
architecture and deployment of radio communication systems in inland waterway and sea-river navigation.
The processing of navigational data, transmitted during electronic ship reporting and used in inland shipping, is
described. The new BICS standard for the processing and transmission of navigational data in inland navigation
is presented. The author evaluates the advantages of the new radio communications technology for the safety
of inland waterway vessel traffic.

Research studies have discussed the correct selection and choice of the optimal units for a specific type of
search and rescue task. This article has described the characteristics and properties of merchant vessels that determine
their potential for SAR (Search and Rescue) operation. An attempt was made to estimate the suitability
of a craft according to its effectiveness and risk. This research may have an impact on improving the organization
and coordination of search and rescue operations at sea. The authors have proposed criteria for evaluating
merchant units during selection for planned SAR actions. A model for evaluating the suitability of a unit has
been presented. It is a mathematical model with elements of expert knowledge. The model classifies attributes,
taking into account the lower and upper risk limits and introducing a risk sensitivity factor. The article contains
tables and graphs.

The proximity of the sea has a strategic importance for Poland’s security and economy. LNG (Liquefied Natural
Gas) may play an important role in the Baltic Sea Region in the near future – it may create opportunities for
dynamic international economic cooperation for Baltic countries. Access to the Baltic Sea enables sustainable
development consisting of the comprehensive exploitation of the country’s maritime potential, i.e.: the broad
development of the maritime economy. In this paper the authors have given an overview of the benefits of
a LNG terminal located in Świnoujście. Building a facility is a strategic investment that requires the involvement
of all stakeholders at the local, regional, and national level. In this paper the authors have presented general
information on the collection and transmission of natural gas. The aspects of trends in the LNG market have
been discussed. Market conditions in the world and in Europe, concerning the investment in the Świnoujście
LNG terminal, have been described. The implementation of the strategy has been aimed at supporting the
pursuit of long-term development agreements integrating the maritime sectors with the other related sectors.
The directions of gas distribution arising from the rational use of the LNG terminal in Świnoujście have also
been presented. In addition, the economic impact of the location of the LNG terminal in Świnoujście on the
development of the gas market in Poland was analyzed.