Official Super Two Cutoff

Super Two status allows certain players to reach arbitration — significantly boosting their earnings — before they achieve three full years of MLB service. Whether or not a player qualifies, which is determined by ascertaining the top 22 percent of MLB players with between two and three years of service time — makes a huge difference in their salary not only for the coming season, but also the ensuing years of arbitration.

This year, the service-time cutoff will land at two years and 123 days, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports on Twitter. Players that have accumulated at least that much service time will therefore be eligible for salary arbitration, so long as they spent at least 86 days on the active roster in 2017.

You can find MLBTR’s arbitration projections for the coming offseason right here. Among the players listed there, the Twins’ Eddie Rosario will instead have to settle for the league minimum (with a raise, if any, given at the sole discretion of his team).

Here’s how this year’s cutoff compares to recent years:

2016: 2.131

2015: 2.130

2014: 2.133

2013: 2.122

2012: 2.140

2011: 2.146

2010: 2.122

2009: 2.139

It’s easy to see the impact of Super Two status with a few examples. Sam Dyson put up some middling numbers in 2017, but still projects to take home $4.6MM because of his lofty salary starting point. George Springer is expected to earn $8.9MM in his 3+ service-class year because of last year’s Super Two salary (and his outstanding intervening campaign).

The aforementioned Rosario, meanwhile, projected at $3.5MM but will instead likely not even earn one-fifth of that amount for the 2018 season (depending upon the generosity of his employer) since he landed under the line. Meanwhile, players such as Corey Knebel, Maikel Franco, and Felipe Rivero project to top $3MM in earnings. As for 2016 NL MVP Kris Bryant, the Cubs’ controversial decision to keep him off the Opening Day roster in 2015 will still leave the team with an added year of control, but he is projected to bring home a monster $8.9MM salary as a Super Two, perhaps setting the stage for a record-setting run through the arb process.

I think Renfroe has a super-high bust percentage. Terrible at-bats and the defense is absolutely unacceptable. Since the Padres aren’t any good they may as well give him another shot but he just doesn’t look like much of an asset at this point.

Renfroe has always struggled when he gets promoted and figured things out eventually. Time and his track record are certainly on his side as far as figuring things out offensively. As for his defense, he never struggled with that as a prospect and it’s not the type of thing that is harder to do in the Majors like hitting or pitching. I would not expect his defense to be nearly as poor in 2018.

Renfroe has always struggled when he gets promoted and figured things out eventually. Time and his track record are certainly on his side as far as figuring things out offensively. As for his defense, he never struggled with that as a prospect and it’s not the type of thing that is harder to do in the Majors like hitting or pitching. I would not expect his defense to be nearly as poor in 2018 and beyond.

I would argue that defense is harder to do in the majors. Batters hit the ball farther and harder and the ballpark dimensions are bigger and different. As far as Renfroe improving at each level, the K/BB rate actually declined at each stop, from acceptable in single-A/double-A (134/50) to worrisome in AAA (122/19) to unplayable in the majors (140/26). Guys like that can have careers – Jeff Francouer springs to mind, although he was a good baserunner and a good defensive player – but usually that kind of discipline leads to short careers for an outfielder.

Yeah that’s a good point about his K/BB rate, and that’s one of the main reasons why I’m not sold on him yet. However, we’ll have to see if he manages to make adjustments next year. It would be really unfortunate to see him turn into another Jeff Francouer when he has the potential to be more.

I meant his bottom line stats. HIS OPS was quality by the time he was promoted from each level. He terrorized high-A pitching to open the 2014 season, struggled for a while upon the promotion to AA (which is known to be tough on young hitters), figured it out eventually and then was promoted to AAA where he flourished in the (admittedly hitter-friendly) PCL. But looking at some of the home runs he has hit, you can’t call him a PCL product. The power is legit.

This will likely have a significant impact on the White Sox in the years to come. The Super Two cutoff last year affected the ultimate promotions of Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to their big league roster and could also impact the MLB debut of top pitching prospect Michael Kopech in 2018.