Scott Walker’s last best chance

Scott Walker needs to reassure his supporters and his donors. And Wednesday’s debate might be his last chance.

After a sleepy performance in the first Republican presidential debate that fueled a steep slide in his standing with voters, the governor’s team has pushed him to prepare. Round Two will be different, according to sources inside Walker’s camp.

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He won’t stop talking before his time is up, as he did at that first debate – a decision that left some of his top backers scratching their heads. He will be more assertive, according to people who have been briefed. And he won’t just answer the moderators’ questions but instead pivot to his personal story.

And anything less could spell trouble.

"If Gov. Walker lays an egg, he better be prepared to bootstrap his campaign in the coming 3-5 months because his fundraising will dry up," said a veteran campaign manager and GOP operative.

Indeed, there is perhaps no one in the Republican field under greater pressure than Walker, who has suffered a miserable fall since entering this contest and being immediately branded a pack leader.

Walker’s unremarkable showing in the first debate left even his own team disappointed. And his decline in the polls predictably followed. In the nine national polls conducted immediately preceding the first debate, Walker averaged over 11 percent. In the seven surveys conducted since, Walker’s average score dropped below 5 percent.

He has been busy preparing for this critical second debate for weeks, holding a late August practice session in New York City while his advisors assure Walker’s supporters that their man will be livelier.

The predicament, according to Republican strategists and operatives in early-voting states, is Walker’s alone. In the very earliest days of the campaign cycle, Walker's strength was undeniable. But in recent months that same campaign has suffered from a number of missteps -- odd or unfortunate statements from the candidate on foreign policy and immigration and an inability to demonstrate self-discipline on the stump (like that time he asserted he is probably the most scrutinized politician in America).

He hasn't been able to replicate the resounding praise he got from an early speech in Iowa. And while his campaign more recently has begun rolling out a number of policy platforms on healthcare and labor to switch gears, those proposals have gotten little attention in the GOP primary.

Now Walker’s story is one of decline.

“He needs to reframe his brand as ‘the underdog who overcomes,’” said Bruce Haynes, the president of the political consulting firm Purple Strategies. “That's the key challenge for Walker -- to move the starting line back to where he finds himself today and reframe what is expected of him going forward, to change the frame from that of being a descendent candidate to an ascendant candidate."

Another bad debate and Walker’s days as a presidential candidate could be numbered. Besides his poor polling trajectory, Walker (like all the candidates) faces a Sept. 30 fundraising deadline, and he’ll have to show he can pull in a large-enough sum to sustain a campaign in a field that’s too large for the donor community to support.

"I think it’s serious for everybody,” said Nick Ryan, who runs the pro-Huckabee super PAC Pursuing America's Greatness. “He just has a lower margin for error. Walker’s problem is similar to Bush— people liked them better before they were a candidate."

Already, he’s at a disadvantage. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush's campaign and supporting super PAC has $120 million raised in the last period. Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio and their PACs clocked more cash in the last quarter too, more than doubling Walker’s $26.2 million haul. (To be fair, Walker’s tally only included super PAC contributions because the candidate hasn’t had to disclose campaign fundraising yet.)

So this debate marks a critical moment, and supporters are warning Walker needs to see this as an opportunity for a reset, both to quiet the critics and keep the cash flow strong.

“Nothing like a little success,” said one Walker donor, “to quiet things down.”