MONTREAL – The stretch of Notre Dame Street where Liberal leader Jean Charest made a campaign stop Thursday is known for its antique shops, and it was fitting that his bus pulled up right across from a store called Retro-Ville.

Because there was something nostalgic about Mr. Charest’s appearance before a roomful of journalists and campaign workers, as he once more assumed the role that has defined his political career.

[np-related]

[np_storybar title=”Possible Outcomes” link=””]With three days left before the Quebec election, the race is so tight it is impossible to predict what shape the National Assembly will take after the votes are counted. Here are four possible scenarios, and one unlikely one:

A Parti Québécois minority The latest polls suggest this is the likeliest outcome. PQ leader Pauline Marois is amplifying her appeals for a majority, because she knows leading a minority government could be the stuff of nightmares.

She could forget about the sovereignty referendum she hopes to hold, as neither the Liberals nor Coalition Avenir Québec would agree to one. In fact, little in the PQ platform, from its supercharged Bill 101 to the cancellation of university tuition increases, would find favour with the two main opposition parties.

PQ supporters are notoriously hard on their leaders in the best of times. Running a sound government is considered a failure if you have not moved the province closer to independence, and her team contains several stars who would be more than happy to replace her.

The best minority outcome she could hope for would be if Québec Solidaire and Option Nationale – the two other sovereigntist parties — pick up enough seats to create a multi-party sovereigntist majority. But Option Nationale will win one seat at best, and Ms. Marois would be wary of boosting the status of Québec Solidaire, which has already eaten into PQ support on the left.

A PQ majority This would give Ms. Marois free rein to enact her platform promises, but those affecting language, Quebec citizenship and a new Charter of Secularism could be expected to face court challenges. Ms. Marois has said she will move swiftly to meet with Prime Minister Stephen Harper and demand that Ottawa transfer powers and financing in the fields of language, culture, telecommunications and Employment Insurance. PQ strategists hope a rebuke by the Supreme Court of Canada or a refusal by Ottawa to relinquish powers would kindle sovereigntist passions, but that is far from certain. The bottom line is that with support for independence below 30%, a referendum in a first PQ mandate is unlikely.

A CAQ minority This would be a remarkable victory for the upstart party and would signal that Quebecers’ desire for change did not end with last year’s NDP sweep of the province. Leader François Legault says he has returned to politics for 10 years only and he is in a hurry to enact reforms in health, education and debt reduction. With his allegations of Liberal corruption and his abandonment of his former Péquiste colleagues, he has not endeared himself to either party, but the Liberals could be expected to support parts of his right-of-centre platform.

A Liberal minority This would be a victory for Mr. Charest, considering he had been given up for dead. It would be a vindication of his tough stand against the student protesters, but with an inquiry into corruption set to resume Sept 20, the euphoria could be short-lived. One factor working in favour of the medium-term survival of a minority Liberal government would be the likelihood that Ms. Marois would be forced out by unforgiving party members.

Coalition Mr. Charest has been asked whether he would consider joining the CAQ in a coalition should the CAQ and Liberals finish second and third but with enough seats combined to hold sway in the National Assembly. He dismissed the question as hypothetical. It seems an unlikely marriage, especially considering a minority PQ government would be hamstrung on its chief project, sovereignty.

[/np_storybar]

“I am a federalist. I am a Quebecer who believes in Canada,” he said. “I think that the interests of Quebec and the interests of Canada do not contradict each other. I think this is a great country, and I think Quebec plays an extraordinary role within Canada.”

Everything he has done since his election as Premier in 2003 has been aimed at “defending Quebec within Canada,” he said, rhyming off a list of gains, including increased transfer payments, a seat for Quebec at UNESCO and Parliament’s recognition of the Québécois nation.

“If there is someone who has shown that we can make the federal system work within Canada and in Quebec’s interest, it is me, and without being against Canada. I am not against Canada.” He repeated that unlike his adversaries, Pauline Marois of the Parti Québécois and François Legault of the Coalition Avenir Québec, he sees no conflict between Quebec and Canadian interests. “My entire career has been founded on this conviction.”

There is no one in Quebec politics who is a more effective, unabashed advocate of federalism. And with successive polls showing the separatist PQ in position to take power Tuesday, his message would seem as relevant today as it was when he was a federal Tory leader waving his passport during the 1995 referendum campaign. But with his Liberals in third place and Mr. Charest devoting the campaign’s final days to saving once-secure ridings, his performance had the feel of a greying rock star dusting off the old hits.

This was never going to be an easy campaign for Mr. Charest. After three election victories and more than nine years in power, the Liberals had exceeded the typical shelf life of a Quebec government. Tainted by construction-industry corruption scandals, the government consistently drew the disapproval of more than two-thirds of poll respondents.

If Mr. Charest detected a glimmer of hope when he called the election Aug. 1, it was largely because his chief opponent, Ms. Marois, was vulnerable. She had barely survived an autumn revolt from within sovereigntist ranks, and her enthusiastic embrace of the student protests last spring put her at odds with the majority of Quebecers.

What’s more, the party program proposed radical measures to strengthen the French language and Quebec identity. Francophones and allophones would be barred from attending English-language CEGEPs, the province’s post-secondary colleges that offer the equivalent of Grades 12 and 13. Immigrants would have to demonstrate proficiency in French before being accepted as Quebec citizens and running for elected office. Public-sector workers would be barred from wearing most religious symbols, including the hijab, turban and kippah — but not the crucifix.

Under PQ policy, a petition signed by 15% of the Quebec population – about 850,000 people – could trigger a referendum on sovereignty. And in a complete surrender to students whose protests created months of turmoil, the PQ promised to cancel Liberal tuition hikes and repeal emergency legislation that limits protests and prohibits student pickets from blockading campuses.

Mr. Charest hammered away at the threat of separation at every opportunity, but the message was dulled by the sense among voters that despite the wishes of PQ diehards, a referendum is not around the corner.

On the same day Mr. Charest stopped in Montreal’s antique district, Ms. Marois was putting on a retro show of her own at the Metropolis, a downtown nightspot. Though the home-stretch PQ rally was in the heart of cosmopolitan Montreal, there were few visible minorities among the crowd of close to 2,000. PQ faithful waved the fleur-de-lys and stomped their feet to traditional songs. As Ms. Marois invoked the British Conquest of 1759 and spoke of “rediscovering our pride,” it was like a throwback to the PQ’s early days, except with pricier beer.

Ms. Marois appealed for a majority government so she can “make Quebec a country,” and her speech was regularly interrupted with chants of “We want a country!” But beyond the walls of the Metropolis, the sentiment was hardly widespread. A CROP poll published Friday in La Presse showed support for independence at its lowest level since 2007. The poll found that just 28% would vote Yes to sovereignty, while 62% would vote No, and 10% are undecided.

With that lack of enthusiasm, it has been hard for Mr. Charest to get people agitated about the threat of a referendum. And on issues that arguably pose more immediate threats – the PQ’s identity obsession, for example – he declined to seize the high ground, perhaps fearing he would alienate voters in the francophone heartland. When the Mayor of Saguenay spewed a xenophobic tirade against a PQ candidate of Algerian origin who, contrary to PQ policy, favours removing the crucifix from the National Assembly, Mr. Charest refused to condemn him. In fact, he sat on his hands as one of his ministers praised the mayor’s courage.

If the election had come down to another of the Liberal-PQ clashes that have defined provincial politics for the last 50 years, Mr. Charest would have stood a better chance. But neither he nor Ms. Marois counted on the surge by Mr. Legault’s CAQ that has placed the new party second.

Polls show the CAQ is gaining at the expense of the Liberals, and the campaign’s final days have seen Mr. Charest and Mr. Legault fighting over who is best positioned to block the PQ. The CAQ is strongest in the Quebec City region and in the suburbs around Montreal, but Mr. Charest argues that the party is not a player in so many other regions that it could never form the government.

Mr. Legault shot back Friday that it is the Liberals for whom victory is impossible, because of weak support among francophone voters. Friday’s CROP poll gave the Liberals the support of just 19% of francophones, compared with 37% for the PQ and 30% for the CAQ.

Mr. Legault, a former PQ cabinet minister, maintains that what Quebecers want most is a break from constitutional squabbles. He puts himself forward as a leader who is neither federalist nor separatist, a species that Mr. Charest has trouble believing exists.

“We know that if there is a referendum, Mr. Legault would be on the fence,” Mr. Charest said Thursday. “His chair in the National Assembly would become a spectator’s seat. You cannot claim to be the leader of a party and want to be Premier and be neutral.”

But it could be that Mr. Charest is trapped in his own Retro-Ville, a place where every election is about saving the country. “Mr. Charest has built his entire political career on the backs of separatists,” Mr. Legault said this week. “Suddenly he realizes that Quebecers’ priorities are elsewhere, and he is completely at a loss. . . . Because what people want in Quebec is to talk about education, talk about the economy, talk about health care, fight against corruption. People do not want Quebec to be divided again.”

Almost Done!

Postmedia wants to improve your reading experience as well as share the best deals and promotions from our advertisers with you. The information below will be used to optimize the content and make ads across the network more relevant to you. You can always change the information you share with us by editing your profile.

By clicking "Create Account", I hearby grant permission to Postmedia to use my account information to create my account.

I also accept and agree to be bound by Postmedia's Terms and Conditions with respect to my use of the Site and I have read and understand Postmedia's Privacy Statement. I consent to the collection, use, maintenance, and disclosure of my information in accordance with the Postmedia's Privacy Policy.

Postmedia wants to improve your reading experience as well as share the best deals and promotions from our advertisers with you. The information below will be used to optimize the content and make ads across the network more relevant to you. You can always change the information you share with us by editing your profile.

By clicking "Create Account", I hearby grant permission to Postmedia to use my account information to create my account.

I also accept and agree to be bound by Postmedia's Terms and Conditions with respect to my use of the Site and I have read and understand Postmedia's Privacy Statement. I consent to the collection, use, maintenance, and disclosure of my information in accordance with the Postmedia's Privacy Policy.