In 30 years, adaptive headlights won't be unusual

The availability of adaptive headlights in the registered vehicle fleet is predicted to reach 95 percent in 2044, a recent HLDI study has found. The analysis takes into account both how quickly automakers are expected to add the feature to new vehicles and how quickly the makeup of the fleet changes. Having a feature available could mean that it was offered as an option; it doesn't necessarily mean the vehicle is equipped with it.

A hypothetical government mandate to include adaptive headlights as standard equipment on all 2015 and later vehicles would speed up the process by about five years. If such a requirement were enacted, the fleet would reach 95 percent availability in 2039, HLDI estimates. Although adaptive headlights have shown benefits, the government hasn't signaled that it plans to require them.

HLDI performed the same analysis with other driver assistance technologies, including front crash prevention, lane departure warning, blind spot warning, rear cameras and rear parking sensors. The study is similar to one HLDI released in 2012 (see "Estimated time of arrival," Jan. 24, 2012), which focused primarily on an older group of safety features.

Year in which features reach 95 percent of the registered vehicle fleet

Note: rear cameras will be required in all new vehicles starting May 1, 2018.