La NiM-qa effect could bring more hurricanes

Phenomenon also might cause a warm, dry winter

September 7, 2007|By Ken Kaye Staff Writer

The onset of a weather phenomenon in the faraway Pacific known as La NiM-qa probably boosted hurricanes Dean and Felix to Category 5 power in the past month and could foster more major storms, government meteorologists said Thursday.

"We have very favorable conditions with La NiM-qa and we're also in an active hurricane era. Both were players," said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane seasonal forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA scientists predict La NiM-qa, an atmospheric condition that encourages storm formation, should be in full bloom within three months. Though not yet strong enough to be formally classified a La NiM-qa, the condition's influence is already being felt on tropical weather, Bell noted.

Technically, La NiM-qa is a cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. It calms the atmosphere, reduces upper level wind shear - and allows hurricanes to grow. In turn, that should make this season busier than normal, Bell said.

Last month, NOAA predicted 13-16 named storms, including seven to nine hurricanes, during the six-month Atlantic hurricane season that ends Nov. 30. Also citing the emergence of La NiM-qa, storm prognosticators William Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University this week forecast five more hurricanes this season.

On Thursday, the tropics were relatively quiet, though forecasters were monitoring a disturbed area near Bermuda.

La NiM-qa has an impact beyond hurricane season. In South Florida, it typically results in warmer, drier winters, said Gordon Strassberg, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.

"We would expect to see more days with sunshine and less days with inclement weather," he said, adding that might not be a good thing for the region's water shortage.

Bell said La NiM-qa generally forms in the fall and peaks in the winter. He said it is too early to say whether the condition will linger into the 2008 hurricane season.

With six named storms, including two hurricanes emerging so far, this storm season is progressing at an average pace, said Colin McAdie, research meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County.

Yet it's ahead of schedule in terms of major hurricanes, he said.

"In an ordinary season, we would not have a second major hurricane until the end of September," he said.

Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the center, cautioned that any year can spawn major hurricanes if atmospheric conditions are ripe. He pointed to the tumultuous 2005 season, which was essentially a neutral year.