Tuesday, July 23, 2013

I'm so excited that its almost time for Vikings football again! I like summer...but there's just something about the fall...I cannot wait!!!

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Monday, June 3, 2013

Predicting the Future of the NFC North

By: Alexander Lawson

Predicting the future of the black and blue division may seem to be an impossible task as the NFL is a
fluid business and involves many changes from year to year.One would be correct to uphold such
skepticism; however, there is one tool we can use to collect information and apply it to make predictions regarding the future of the division: the NFL draft.

It’s no secret
by now that successful teams are built through the draft - a process that takes
years to accomplish, but is definitely worth the investment…just ask the
Patriots, Packers, and Ravens. This article researches each NFC North team’s
draft from the last five years (2008-2012). Quantitative analysis was performed
in order to find facts that can be used to predict the direction in which this
division is heading. Specifically, the percentage of players that remain on
their respective teams via the draft was found for each team throughout the
last five years. This stat is known as the draft retention rate, and NFL dynasties tend to have high retention rates. This allows a team to remain young and competitive for many years. It was also important to investigate the success in which
each team had selecting in the first three round of the draft because selecting
a “bust” early in the draft can be detrimental to the roster in the future.
Finally, the overall average age of the team, average age of the offense, and
average age of the defense were identified and borrowed from , an article
written by Chase Stuart in which he ranked every NFL team in terms of age. The
age factor was included to account for free agent signings that have taken
place. For example, this article will expose that the Bears have struggled
mightily in the draft throughout recent years; however they remain to be a
contending team. The reason for this is due to free agency, which can be
correlated to a high average roster age because free agents tend to be over the
age of 27. Including free agency in this research would have created too many
variables that could incorporate error into the statistical analysis. Therefore
without further ado, let us investigate the numbers that speak for themselves.

Chicago Bears Analysis

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2008

1

14

Chris Williams

Released and signed by the Rams

2008

2

44

Matt Forte

Starter

2008

3

70

Earl Bennett

Starting slot receiver

2008

4

90

Marcus Harrison

Waived

2008

5

120

Zach Bowman

Waived, Signed by Bears

2008

5

158

Kellen Davis

Signed with Browns

2008

7

208

Ervin Baldwin

Waived

***The 2008 Bear’s draft class yielded 3 players out of 11 drafted that
remained with the team up to this point. They were 2 out of 3 in terms of being
successful in the first three rounds.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2009

3

68

Jarron Gilbert

Released and signed with Bills

2009

3

99

Juaquin Iglesias

Canadian Football League

2009

4

105

Henry Melton

Franchise Tagged (8.5 million
this year)

2009

4

119

D.J Moore

Free agent

2009

5

140

Johnny Knox

Retired

2009

5

154

Marcus Freeman

LB coach at Purdue

2009

6

190

Al Afalava

Signed with Titans

2009

7

246

Lance Louis

Signed with Dolphins

2009

7

251

Derek Kinder

Retired

***The 2009 Bear’s draft class yielded 1 player that still remains with the
team out of the 9 selected. They went 0 for 2 in terms of selecting players in
the first three rounds successfully.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2010

3

75

Major Wright

Still with team

2010

4

109

Corey Wootton

The man that ended Favre’s
career still remains on the team

2010

5

141

Joshua Moore

Signed with broncos

2010

6

181

Dan LeFevour

Canadian Football League

2010

7

218

J’Marcus Webb

Still with team

***The bears have retained 3 of the 5 players selected in 2010. They were 1
for 1 in terms of selecting players in the first three rounds that still remain
on the team; however major wright hasn’t played well during his tenure in
Chicago and is likely to compete with Chris Conte, Brandon Hardin, and Tom
Zbikowski for playing time.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2011

1

29

Gabe Carimi

Still with team

2011

2

53

Stephen Paea

Still with team

2011

3

93

Chris Conte

Starter

2011

5

160

Nathan Enderle

Signed with Titans

2011

6

195

J.T Thomas

Still with team

***The bears have retained 4 out of the 5 players drafted in their 2011
draft class. They were 3/3 in the first three rounds.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2012

1

19

Shea McClellin

Still with team

2012

2

45

Alshon Jeffery

Starter

2012

3

79

Brandon Hardin

Injured first year

2012

4

111

Evan Rodriguez

Still with team

2012

6

184

Isaiah Frey

Still with team (Practice
Squad)

2012

7

220

Greg McCoy

Signed with Vikings

***The bears retained 5 of the 6 players they drafted in 2012. They were 3
for 3 in the first three rounds as of now.

A Closer Look at
the Numbers

The Chicago Bears have retained a total of 16 players out of the 36 they
have drafted throughout the last five years. That comes out to 44%. Thus, the
Bears have failed to retain over half of the young talent in which they have
drafted. This number is drastically low and may provide many problems for the
franchise in the near future. However, the Bears are 8 for 11 in terms of
drafting success in the first three rounds. This comes out to 73% and allows
for slight reassurance that the future may not be as questionable as one might
have predicted. This percentage is certainly not bad in terms of drafting
success in the early rounds, but it’s not fantastic either. The Bears must
avoid early picks such as Chris Williams and Jarron Gilbert if they wish to build a young, competitive roster. One may be wondering, “How are the Bears
still considered a contender with these unimpressive draft statistics?” The
answer is simple: free agency. The Bears have signed players such as Jay Cutler, Julius
Peppers, and Brandon Marshall. As a result the average age of the team is
relatively high as compared to the rest of the league. As of March 16th,
the Bears ranked 29th with an average age of 28.6. The average
offensive age was 27.9 and the defensive age was 29.0. These numbers are highly
discouraging because the Chicago Bears’ lack of draft success may very well
catch up with them as their average age continues to climb. It certainly seems
as if this franchise is all in at this point and may need to re-build in the
near future. One thing is certain: Phil Emery can’t do any worse than Jerry
Angelo.

Detroit Lions Analysis

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2008

1

17

Godser Cherilus

Signed with Colts

2008

2

45

Jordon Dizon

Retired

2008

3

64

Kevin Smith

Free agent

2008

3

87

Andre Fluellen

Released and signed with Lions

2008

3

92

Cliff Avril

Signed with Seattle

2008

5

136

Kenny Moore

United Football League

2008

5

146

Jerome Felton

Blocks for Adrian Peterson

2008

7

216

Landon Cohen

Signed with Eagles

2008

7

218

Caleb Campbell

Free agent

***The Lions have retained only 1 of the 9 players they drafted in 2008 and
were 0 for 5 in terms of drafting success in the early rounds.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2009

1

1

Matt Stafford

Starting QB

2009

1

20

Brandon Pettigrew

Starting TE

2009

2

33

Louis Delmas

Starter

2009

3

76

Deandre Levy

Starter

2009

3

82

Derrick Williams

Canadian Football League

2009

4

115

Sammie Lee Hill

Signed with Titans

2009

6

192

Aaron Brown

Free agent

2009

7

228

Lydon Murtha

Dolphins practice squad

2009

7

235

Zack Follett

Retired

2009

7

255

Dan Gronkowski

Signed with Browns

***The Lions have retained 4 of the 10 players they drafted in 2009. They
were able to keep 4 out of the 5 early round draft picks from the 2009 draft
class.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2010

1

2

Ndomukong Suh

Starting DT

2010

1

30

Jahvid Best

Still with team, however this counts as a *BUST* since it
has been reported that he may never play another game with concussion issues

2010

3

66

Amari Spievey

Still with team

2010

4

128

Jason Fox

RFA with team

2010

7

213

Willie Young

RFA with team

2010

7

255

Tim Toone

Signed with Falcons

***Detroit was able to retain 2 of the five players they selected in 2010.
They also retained 2 of the 3 early draft selections up to this point in time.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2011

1

13

Nick Fairley

Still with team

2011

2

44

Titus Young

Free agent

2011

2

57

Mikel Leshoure

Still with team

2011

5

157

Doug Hogue

Signed with Panthers

2011

7

209

Johnny Culbreath

Retired

***The Lions retained 2 of the 5 players they selected in the 2011 draft
and were 2 for 3 in terms of drafting success in the early rounds.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2012

1

23

Riley Reiff

Still with team

2012

2

52

Ryan Broyles

Still with team

2012

3

69

Dwight Bentley

Still with team

2012

4

126

Ronnell Lewis

Still with team

2012

5

148

Tahir Whitehead

Still with team

2012

5

151

Chris Greenwood

Still with team

2012

6

196

Jonte Green

Still with team

2012

7

215

Travis Lewis

Still with team

***The Lions had an impressive draft in 2012 as they retained all eight
picks and went 3 for 3 in terms of drafting success.

Taking a Closer
Look at the Numbers

The Detroit Lions were able to retain 19 players out of 38 drafted in the
last five years. That comes out to 50%, which isn’t much better than the Bears.
They were 13 for 19 in terms of drafting success in the first three rounds of
the draft which comes out to 63% efficiency. This number is lower than the
Bears 73%, but the Bears currently have only 8 players from the first three
rounds on their roster whereas the Lions have 12 players. Therefore, I would
say the Lions have a slight edge on the Bears in terms of drafting efficiency
throughout the last five years because of their higher percentage of retained
players and higher number of players selected in the first three rounds that
still remain on the roster. The Detroit Lions ranked 19th in the
league in terms of average age with 27.7. Their average offensive age was 28.2
and the defensive average age was 27.2. It’s hard to tell what direction the
Lions are heading because they have had a couple of solid drafts recently and
their age isn’t a big concern at this point. It would be safe to predict that
the Lions are past their days of losing every single regular season game and
are on the right track to improving.

Green Bay Packers Analysis

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2008

2

36

Jordy Nelson

Starter

2008

2

56

Brian Brohm

Released

2008

2

60

Pat Lee

Released and signed with Lions

2008

3

91

Jermichael Finley

Starting TE…for now

2008

4

102

Jeremy Thompson

Retired

2008

4

135

Josh Sitton

Starter

2008

5

150

Breno Giacomini

Signed with Seattle

2008

7

209

Matt Flynn

Signed with Seattle

2008

7

217

Brett Swain

Released

***The Packers have retained 3 of the 9 draft picks selected in 2008. They
were 2 for 4 in terms of drafting efficiency in the early rounds.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2009

1

9

B.J Raji

Starter

2009

1

26

Clay Matthews

Starter

2009

4

109

T.J Lang

Starter

2009

5

145

Quinn Johnson

Signed with Titans

2009

5

162

Jamon Meredith

Signed with Tampa Bay

2009

6

182

Jarius Wynn

Signed with Titans

2009

6

187

Brandon Underwood

Signed with Cowboys

2009

7

218

Brad Jones

Still with team

***The Packers retained 4 out of the 8 players in their 2009 draft class.
They were 2 for 2 in the early rounds and selected key pieces to their defense.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2010

1

23

Bryan Bulaga

Still with team

2010

2

56

Mike Neal

Still with team

2010

3

71

Morgan Burnett

Starter

2010

5

154

Andrew Quarless

Still with team

2010

5

169

Marshall Newhouse

Still with team

2010

6

193

James Starks

Still with team

2010

7

230

CJ Wilson

Still with team

***This was a successful draft for the Packers as they retained all 7 draft
picks and went 3 for 3 in terms of drafting efficiency in the third round. The
Packers won the super bowl the year this draft took place, perhaps hinting at
its importance. However, this draft brings up an interesting problem with the
“research by numbers” method. It could be argued that the 2009 draft was more
“successful” than the 2010 draft for the Packers because of the talent they
obtained, however the numbers suggest that 2010 was the more “successful” draft
class due to the retention and efficiency percentages. There are many factors
that play into this research but this article only focuses on quantitative data
that can be analyzed and used for application.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2011

1

32

Derek Sherrod

Still with team

2011

2

64

Randall Cobb

Still with team

2011

3

96

Alex Green

Still with team

2011

4

131

Davon House

Still with team

2011

5

141

D.J Williams

Still with team

2011

6

179

Caleb Schlauderaff

Released

2011

6

186

D.J Smith

Still with team

2011

6

197

Ricky Elmore

Released

2011

7

218

Ryan Taylor

Still with team

2011

7

233

Lawrence Guy

Practice Squad

***The Packers retained 8 of 10 players from the 2011 draft. They were 3
for 3 in terms of drafting efficiency.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2012

1

28

Nick Perry

Still with team

2012

2

51

Jerel Worthy

Still with team

2012

2

62

Casey Heyward

Still with team

2012

4

132

Mike Daniels

Still with team

2012

4

133

Jerron McMillian

Still with team

2012

5

163

Terrell Manning

Still with team

2012

7

241

Andrew Datko

Practice Squad

2012

7

243

BJ Coleman

Practice Squad

***The Packers retained all 8 picks in 2012 and were 3 for 3 in drafting
efficiency during the early rounds.

Taking a Closer
Look at the Numbers

The Green Bay Packers retained 30 of their 42 players drafted in the last
five years which comes out to a sexy 71% retention rate. They have also
retained a total of 13 of the possible 15 players selected in the first 3
rounds of the draft. Thus, they have a drafting efficiency percentage of 87%.
There is no question that the draft has helped propel this franchise to a super
bowl victory and has given them the chance to be perennial contenders.
According to Chase Stuart, the Packers currently rank 13th in the
league with an average roster age of 27.1. The average offensive age is 27.3
and the average defensive age is 26.8. As long as the Packers continue to do
business in the same fashion as the last five years, it’s an extremely easy
prediction to ascertain that this team isn’t going anywhere. The Packers can be
expected to compete for the NFC North title for quite some time to come.

Minnesota Vikings Analysis

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2008

2

43

Tyrell Johnson

Signed with Lions

2008

5

157

John David Booty

Waived

2008

5

152

Letroy Guion

Still with team

2008

6

187

John Sullivan

Starter

2008

6

193

Jaymar Johnson

Retired

***In the 2008 draft, the Vikings retained only 2 of the 5 players
selected. They were also 0 for 1 on their draft efficiency. At least the
Vikings came out of this draft with a top 5 NFL center.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2009

1

22

Percy Harvin

Traded to Seattle for 1st,7th,3rd

*Counts as efficient due to
“refunded” 1st

2009

2

54

Phil Loadholt

Starting RT

2009

3

86

Asher Allen

Retired

2009

5

150

Jasper Brinkley

Signed with Cardinals

2009

7

231

Jamarca Sanford

Starting SS

***The Vikings were able to retain 3 of the 5 draft selections. Again, the
Percy Harvin trade to Seattle yielded the first round pick back to the Vikings;
therefore the “pick” was retained. The Vikings were 2 for 3 in terms of drafting
efficiency in the 2009 draft.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2010

2

34

Chris Cook

Starting CB

2010

2

51

Toby Gerhart

Still with team

2010

4

100

Everson Griffen

Still with team

2010

5

161

Chris Degeare

Signed with Titans

2010

5

167

Nate Triplett

Waived

2010

6

199

Joe Webb

Still with team

2010

7

214

Mickey Shuler

Waived

2010

7

237

Ryan D’Imperio

Waived

***The Vikings retained 4 of the 8 players selected in the 2010 draft and
they kept both players selected in the first three rounds of the draft.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2011

1

12

Christian Ponder

Starting QB

2011

2

43

Kyle Rudolph

Starting TE (Pro Bowl MVP)

2011

4

106

Christian Ballard

Still with team

2011

5

139

Brandon Burton

Still with team

2011

6

168

Demarcus Love

Still with team

2011

6

170

Mistral Raymond

Still with team

2011

6

172

Brandon Fusco

Starting RG

2011

6

200

Ross Homan

Waived

2011

7

215

D’aundre Reed

Still with team

2011

7

236

Stephen Burton

Still with team

***The Minnesota Vikings retained 9 of the 10 players in their 2011 draft
class. They also went 2 for 2 in regard to draft efficiency.

Year

Round

Pick

Selection

Current Status

2012

1

4

Matt Kalil

Starting LT

2012

1

29

Harrison Smith

Starting FS

2012

3

66

Josh Robinson

Still with team

2012

4

118

Jarius Wright

Still with team

2012

4

128

Rhett Ellison

Still with team

2012

4

134

Greg Childs

Still with team

2012

5

139

Robert Blanton

Still with team

2012

6

175

Blair Walsh

Starting Kicker

2012

7

210

Audie Cole

Still with team

2012

7

219

Trevor Guyton

Waived

***The Vikings retained 9 of their 10 draft selections in 2012. They were 3
for 3 in terms of drafting efficiency. This draft propelled the Vikings from a
3 win season to a 10 win season and a playoff berth.

Taking a Closer
Look at the Numbers

The Minnesota Vikings have
retained 27 of their 38 draft selections over the last five years which comes
out to a 71% retention rate, the exact same as the Green Bay Packers. The
Vikings have kept 9 out of the possible 11 draft selections in the first three
rounds of the draft which comes out to an efficiency of 82%. These numbers are
very comparable with the Green Bay Packers and a lot of the credit should go to
the GM of the Minnesota Vikings, Rick Speilman, for stockpiling draft picks and
then putting them to good use. The Vikings are the 14th youngest
team in the NFL with an average roster age of 27.1. The offensive average age
is 26.2 and the defense is 28.1. Chase Stuart calculated these values on March
19th, 2013 so the numbers have varied slightly since then, but
overall it serves as a very close estimate of where each team stands in regard
to age. The prediction for the Minnesota Vikings is rather simple as they are
starting to do business like the Packers: this is a young team that is doing
very well in the draft recently and can be predicted to become perennial
contenders for the NFC North title.