Big Australia? Try for size Even Bigger Australia: research

There is a 50 per cent chance Australia will have even more people that Kevin Rudd's Big Australia population of 36 million by mid-century, research shows.

The federal government's population policy, unveiled by Population Minister Tony Burke on the Gold Coast on Friday, was criticised for failing to nominate targets or set figures.

University of Queensland Centre for Population Research (QCPR) demographers have released a new generation population forecasting model that incorporates uncertainty about the future.

"Our modelling indicates there is a 95 per cent chance that by mid-century Australia's population will be between 29 and 43 million," QCPR spokesperson Dr Tom Wilson said.

The Intergenerational Report's projection of 36 million, dubbed a "big Australia" by former prime minister Kevin Rudd, lies in the middle of this range.

"Our model tells us there is a 50 per cent chance that the nation's population will be greater than 36 million by 2051, so we could have an 'even bigger' Australia," Dr Wilson said.

The majority of this growth is going to occur in mainland capital cities, the director of QCPR, Professor Martin Bell, said.

"It is surprising that the government strategy has little to say about measures that address this burgeoning growth along Australia's east coast," Prof Bell said.

Dr Wilson said projections of future population were essential for planning in both the public and private sectors, but conventional approaches provided little guidance on the uncertainties associated with them.

"These uncertainties can include fertility rates, major recessions, government migration policy, major crises which generate refugee flows and demand for labour in the Australian economy.

"QCPR's new model is able to tackle these uncertainties by providing upper and lower limits to their projections," Dr wilson said.

Yesterday, Labor MP Kelvin Thomson broke party ranks to join in the criticism of the government's new population stance, saying the government had missed an opportunity to curb population growth.