China in 2005

The Economy

China’s economy continued to grow impressively, at 9.4% in the first quarter of 2005 and at more than 9% overall for the third consecutive year. There were still no ready answers, however, to the long-term energy shortage that China faced. As economic growth greatly boosted demand for electricity, the country experienced a third straight year of crippling power blackouts. The State Electricity Regulatory Commission reported a 25,000-MW shortfall during the summer, when electricity consumption typically peaked—though this was a marginal improvement over the 30,000-MW shortfall experienced the previous summer. Forecasts also indicated that China’s demand for petroleum could rise 8% every year for the next quarter of a century. Although China accelerated oil and gas production in Xingjiang and other areas—and although PetroChina planned a $3.3 billion refinery expansion—close to half of the country’s oil consumption continued to be met by imports.

China searched for energy resources from East Africa to Central and Southeast Asia. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) signed a $300 million deal to develop natural gas resources in Saudi Arabia, near the huge Ghawar oil and gas field in the eastern region of the country. China also concluded a $70 billion deal with Iran to buy 250 million tons of natural gas over 30 years. China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) purchased the Iranian subsidiary of Sheer Energy of Canada for $121 million, which gave CNPC a 49% stake in the Masjed Soleyman oil field. It also purchased PetroKazakhstan, a Canadian-owned company, for $4 billion. President Hu himself traveled to Indonesia, Brunei, and the Philippines on missions that were focused largely on securing energy supplies. China provided $6 billion to Russia in hopes of securing oil, and in May it signed a $600 million agreement on energy cooperation with Uzbekistan.

After much speculation on the outside and preparation on the inside, the central bank made two significant currency reforms. One was to enlarge the span of currency fluctuation and allow the yuan to appreciate by more than 2%. The other was to adopt a new formula to valuate the yuan against a basket of foreign currencies instead of just the U.S. dollar. These foreign currencies included the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the South Korean won. The currencies of Singapore, Britain, Malaysia, Russia, Australia, Canada, and Thailand were also considered in setting the yuan’s foreign exchange rate. As a result, the yuan was revaluated on July 21 to 8.11 per dollar from a long-standing trading point of 8.278 per dollar. The revaluation was preceded by a 20-minute floating of the yuan on April 29 and by Hong Kong’s loosening its currency peg on May 19. China hitherto had had no experience of a floating yuan. Although the central bank might broaden the span of currency fluctuation in the future, currency liberalization was not on its reform agenda.

In addition to these significant currency changes, China pressed ahead with reforms of its troubled banking system and markedly opened the door to foreign investment in its financial institutions. State-run banks were encouraged to list their shares abroad. Bank of Communications became the second Chinese bank—following the Bank of China—to list its operations on the Hong Kong exchange market. Bank of America acquired a 9% stake in the country’s third largest lender, China Construction Bank. Dutch bank ING Group and British bank HSBC bought a 19.9% stake and a 20% stake, respectively, in the Bank of Beijing. An investor group led by the Royal Bank of Scotland and Merrill Lynch agreed to pay $3.1 billion to acquire a 10% stake in the Bank of China. American Express and a group of investors led by Goldman Sachs and Allianz Group signed a $3 billion deal to purchase a stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China. General Electric bought a 7% stake in Shenzhen Development Bank for $100 million, and Citigroup planned to raise its stake in Shanghai Pudong Development Bank to 20%.

China continued to reform its state-owned enterprises (SOEs) by planning to close down more than 2,000 debt-ridden SOEs in the next four years and transferring a limited number of state-held shares to the private market. In early May the government picked 4 companies for the pilot project of selling off state-held shares and then expanded that to 42 additional companies, including some of the country’s largest. The number of private companies in China had increased tremendously since 1993, growing by an annual rate of 24% on average. In 2004 there were more than three million private companies in the country employing some 47 million workers.

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