How to evaluate a tipster

You need two numbers, all other things equal, to evaluate the value of a tipsters pick. Yield and win rate.The first tells you how much as a percentage you can expect to win on your bet.The second tells you how heavily you can bet so that you do not have a high risk of blowing up your bankroll.

Now the thing is, does anyone know of a formula to combine the two and make you able to directly compare two tipsters?

PS offcourse the number of picks is also important as well as nuances like whether it is the start, middle or ending of a championship. But this is for a quick and dirty calculation based on the statistics of the tipster.

Excellent article! I have been wondering for a while what is the best way to do this. What sample size is required if betting at certani odds. Only 1 day on the forum and I've learnt something! Need to add p score in to my stats.

Interesting, but that article has a few doubtful points. When comparing betting at 5.00 odds to betting at 1.25, it says the former has more "random variability". But actually the variance of a single boolean event is the same for these two particular numbers, as it is p*(1-p). Note the symmetry here. Further, it does not matter (variance-wise) if you are expected to win 2 out of 10 or to lose 2. The author is probably mislead by the false assumption that one uses the same stake at 5.00 and 1.25 - this of course leads to different total variance, but for an other reason. Also note that there ARE odds with different variance - the highest is at evens.

The author is probably mislead by the false assumption that one uses the same stake at 5.00 and 1.25 - this of course leads to different total variance, but for an other reason. Also note that there ARE odds with different variance - the highest is at evens.

I think it did say at level stakes which most tipsters tend to quote their results to these days.

The use of statistics in betting is one of the things I want to learn more about, partly why I'm here. Any recommended sources to read midoritea .

Good topic! I am working with tipsters since 2012 and I have evaluated more than 3.000 tipsters.I believe that you have to check a multiple things.- All record. How many years? How many picks? Some tipsters "live" 1-2 years and then he dies, so it is important to follow a healthy tipsters with high experience and some picks. - The fame. If the tipster earn many money with his work, he probably works hard, if not he could die fastly.- Last 6 month. Some tipsters have a good year or month and the stats may be affected by that. His graph should be regular, similar units won for month.- Average Odds:If the tipster bets on horse racing for example, you need more bets than others, because the variance is higher.- Sport. From my experience i think that is more difficult to win to ATP/WTA (ML) and NBA (ML). In soccer or other sports is easier to win. This is my feeling.- Liquidity.

I can forget something and probably i am not correct in all things but is my experience

I dont see another way of beaing tennis for example just for being front of computer. U have to know players, you probably should be present in tournament circuitsSame to any sport specificLots of scammers around who think they are sport betting wizards

The most reliable way to evaluate a tipster is by comparing the advised prices to pinnacle's closing line. In the betting industry this is widely known as beating the closing line and every professional bettor will tell you this is THE most and in almost all cases the ONLY important factor when it comes to deciding whether to follow a tipster or not. The problem with traditional tipster platforms like blogabet, pyckio,.. is that they all suffer from survivorship bias, so it's useless to look at the raw performance (p/l, roi, sample size, etc.). I have been in contact with pyckio requesting the addition of closing prices in the tipster stats. They declined for obvious reasons.

That is regardless of the time the bet has been issued. As long as the obtained price is higher then the price at kick-off (+margin) you are making a bet with a positive expectation (in other words a +ev bet). If you are able to do this consistently you WILL secure a long-term profit and vice-versa. Stats prove that about 1 in 10000 tipsters is able to consistently make +ev bets.

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2018-01-10 12:59:28

galt88:i have a question, if i was using my neteller mastercard for online shopping at 18.00 a clock, the limit when will be reseted? at 00.00 clock or the next day on 18.00 clock? sorry for my bad english

DPG:Betdaq now 2% commission. That's the final nail in the coffin for the greedy twats at betunfair.

2018-01-26 20:50:55

Arbusers:Hmm...I doubt it is the final, but also doubt how big this nail is.

2018-01-30 10:27:44

doozy:A bookie I am interested in using will only allow me to deposit by AstroPay. Unfortunately if you deposit by AstroPay, they credit withdrawals with another AstroPay card. So how do I get the money back?

2018-01-30 11:52:22

kustef:to bank account

2018-01-30 13:09:48

doozy:How? According to AstroPay, I can't transfer the money to my bank account. I would have to spend it on something.

2018-02-02 00:45:51

Malteser:Could someone do me a favour and tell me what the Pinnacle max bet is for Yunier Dorticos vs Murat Gassiev (boxing)?

2018-02-02 12:20:47

barbero:602.33€ on Dorticos at odds 2.65 and 1127.95€ on Gassiev at odds 1.534

2018-02-03 13:48:42

Malteser:Thanks. the limits at the broker were lower, only 550 EUR

2018-02-04 17:40:14

barbero:no problem, good you could find that out :)

2018-02-04 17:40:22

barbero:what broker is it?

2018-02-08 16:28:31

jandco:hey fellas,is there any broker who has a bookie with 12bet odds in offer?