Comments for Whale Tales: Episode Five

zachd2323

I don't really see him folding a flush to a shove. You can't really have a lot of better hands because most full houses are probably putting in a raise earlier in the hand. I would guess you are probably raising A9, 99, etc. especially in a blind vs. blind where people don't like to fold. Therefore, your value range is almost entirely A4, which makes it tough for him to fold a Q high flush.

terp

yeah, the turn is probably a call due to your hybrid showdown value and redraw equity, but you're not really looking to ever have to face another river bet even when you improve - these things mostly serve to deny his airballs equity.

then, when the river is an ace, you consider this a good card, which it is not. it has the effect of reducing combos of better hands, but it will also drastically reduce his bluffing frequency. you basically call folding 'weak' and bluffshoving 'hopeless' so elect to call. this just isn't a good way of going about things. this is a terrible card for him to bluff, mostly because people in your spot end up calling with the virtual bottom of their range (and thus calling close to 100%). further, his size makes a bluff incredibly unlikely.

DiggerTheDog

yeah, the turn is probably a call due to your hybrid showdown value and redraw equity, but you're not really looking to ever have to face another river bet even when you improve - these things mostly serve to deny his airballs equity.

then, when the river is an ace, you consider this a good card, which it is not. it has the effect of reducing combos of better hands, but it will also drastically reduce his bluffing frequency. you basically call folding 'weak' and bluffshoving 'hopeless' so elect to call. this just isn't a good way of going about things. this is a terrible card for him to bluff, mostly because people in your spot end up calling with the virtual bottom of their range (and thus calling close to 100%). further, his size makes a bluff incredibly unlikely.

rasklol

T3 with A5 on Q85ttI have a hard time believing that your hand is good enough to call here. You have only 5Â½ outs to improve (BDFD = Â½ out) and its not really like you are going to stack them every time you hit an ace or 4-flush.Finally you may be have some reverse implied odds if the fish should hold 88 or anything like that.

BalugaWhale

yeah, the turn is probably a call due to your hybrid showdown value and redraw equity, but you're not really looking to ever have to face another river bet even when you improve - these things mostly serve to deny his airballs equity.

then, when the river is an ace, you consider this a good card, which it is not. it has the effect of reducing combos of better hands, but it will also drastically reduce his bluffing frequency. you basically call folding 'weak' and bluffshoving 'hopeless' so elect to call. this just isn't a good way of going about things. this is a terrible card for him to bluff, mostly because people in your spot end up calling with the virtual bottom of their range (and thus calling close to 100%). further, his size makes a bluff incredibly unlikely.

from a combo perspective the A is a good card, reducing the likelihood that he has a better A. from a relative value standpoint, no, it doesn't help me beat anything I didn't beat already.

however, the combo point is legit, and i expect villain to see that A as a good bluff card and not a bad one, as it makes it more likely i was stubborn with a Q+c or something similar than having an A. It also may give him more confidence to go for thin value with a worse A (tho the betsize on the riv may discount that).

all that said, I was pretty close to thinking of it as a raise/fold on the river, with call seeing sorta like just about as good as either of them. in retrospect I think it probably is a raise fold, but not a clear one by any means.

terp

from a combo perspective the A is a good card, reducing the likelihood that he has a better A. from a relative value standpoint, no, it doesn't help me beat anything I didn't beat already.

however, the combo point is legit, and i expect villain to see that A as a good bluff card and not a bad one, as it makes it more likely i was stubborn with a Q+c or something similar than having an A. It also may give him more confidence to go for thin value with a worse A (tho the betsize on the riv may discount that).

all that said, I was pretty close to thinking of it as a raise/fold on the river, with call seeing sorta like just about as good as either of them. in retrospect I think it probably is a raise fold, but not a clear one by any means.

Andrew

there is no such thing as a worse ace. Ax makes AAAQ9

also you simply have way more Ax in your range than Qx. i should probably count, as obv this changes with another A on board, but i think most people think 1) this 2) you fold a good number of Qx combos on the turn 3) you still have some flushes in your range. so this is very near the bottom of your range. obv this is not a complete case to fold, as some (many) people bluff too much bvb. i just think this spot looks really poor from his perspective to bluff.

DiggerTheDog

also you simply have way more Ax in your range than Qx. i should probably count, as obv this changes with another A on board, but i think most people think 1) this 2) you fold a good number of Qx combos on the turn 3) you still have some flushes in your range. so this is very near the bottom of your range. obv this is not a complete case to fold, as some (many) people bluff too much bvb. i just think this spot looks really poor from his perspective to bluff.

Depending upon how wide Andrew defends Qx BVB with the card removal of one Q = 12 combos of each Qx that is not three pairs on river or FH.And if KQ is out of flat call range PF.He needs ALL QJ,QT,Q8 Q7 or ALL QJ QT + ALL non 3 pair Qx suited - to have the same amount of combos of Qx and Ax.

And as you mentioned - there has to be some discount filter for turn folds of Qx - I guess perhaps the best method to filter would be that Andrew only continues with Qx with a club. If that is true he prolly has to be defending alot more QXo to have as many combos of Qx as Ax on the river.

DiggerTheDog

Flushes - KTs+,K8s-K2s,QTs+,Q8s,JTs,J8s-J7s,T8s-T6s,85s+,75s+,65s,54s - potentially 26 combos give or take how wide you think he raises SB.3 combos 9993 combos QQQ3 combos AQ3 combos A93 combos A4Not including 444 as at least some of the time he checks flop with 44.15 combos FH

I am not sure what you guys think whether he Valuebets Ax on river - bear in mind that we only get to chop with all those combos and still lose to AK.

Minimum Value combos~ 40 combos.

So lets just assume that Ax is not in his river value betting range - so we can see even if he is very polarised whether we can bluff catch.

BalugaWhale

Flushes - KTs+,K8s-K2s,QTs+,Q8s,JTs,J8s-J7s,T8s-T6s,85s+,75s+,65s,54s - potentially 26 combos give or take how wide you think he raises SB.3 combos 9993 combos QQQ3 combos AQ3 combos A93 combos A4Not including 444 as at least some of the time he checks flop with 44.15 combos FH

I am not sure what you guys think whether he Valuebets Ax on river - bear in mind that we only get to chop with all those combos and still lose to AK.

Minimum Value combos~ 40 combos.

So lets just assume that Ax is not in his river value betting range - so we can see even if he is very polarised whether we can bluff catch.

DiggerTheDog

I mean if villian never thinks you would fold an Ace - is it a good bluffing spot for him on the river?He is laying himself an ok price.

I mean if you add some slowplayed flushes not sure you have that many FHs- no flop raise no PF 3bet- I guess A9, A4 are the only nut hands in your rangeWhich 6 combos of FHsMaaaybe 20 combos of flushes

There are potentially something like 26 nut hands and 40 some combos of Ax bluffcatcher.

Laying himself 1-1 on a bluff - geez How many double floats and Qx are in your range.

But I guess he doesnt always see the bluff spot for what it is........counterbalanced by your own thing Andrew of "they arent bluffing as often as you think"