Tasmanians, with a relatively low carbon footprint, are set to gain significantly from the carbon price once tax and pension changes are factored in, while Queenslanders — heavily dependent on coal to generate electricity — will wear the biggest increase in power prices, according to economic models run on “supercomputers” at The University of Queensland.

The study estimates an average 8.9 per cent increase for retail electricity prices in the five eastern states, due to the carbon price — below the 10 per cent rise estimated by the federal Treasury. This runs counter to claims that Treasury has underestimated the impact of the carbon price on the economy.

National: 1.97c/KwH – up 8.9 per cent Queensland: 2.15c/KwH – up 10.4 per cent New South Wales: 1.99c/KwH – up 8.7 per cent South Australia: 2.05c/KwH – up 8.6 per cent Victoria: 1.94c/KwH – up 8.5 per cent Tasmania: 0.79c/KwH – up 3.8 per cent

“With the use of supercomputing power, this approach to modelling has produced very realistic simulations of economic behaviour and its effects, “ Professor Foster said. “It contrasts markedly with other popular modelling approaches that rely on sets of unrealistic assumptions that are included to make the modelling manageable.”

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