Rejecting Radicalism, Voters in Some Republican Districts May Elect Democrats To Ohio House

By Mike Bock, on February 2nd, 2012

In OHD-41 (formerly OHD-37) Republicans have clobbered Democrats in each of the five contests since the last reapportionment in 2000.

The repeal of SB-5 surprised many entrenched Republicans. The repeal of SB-5 gives stark evidence that our Republican governor, along with the Republican Senate and Republican House, in advancing a right wing agenda, has gone beyond what most Ohio voters will support.

The question is: Will this rejection of Republican radicalism continue to resonate in November’s elections?

Voters generally don’t like one party rule, so, in contests for the State Assembly, voters who habitually vote Republican may be more open minded than ever, this year, to voting Democratic.

With their easy domination in gerrymandered districts, Republicans have become complacent. Rather than finding candidates who might have some appeal to moderates or Independents, Republicans have advanced the most zealous members of their group, those most out the mainstream, to be their candidates. These zealous Assembly members hold a POV that offend even some Eisenhower / Taft Republicans.

Ohio House District 41, where I live, provides a telling example. Republicans traditionally clobber their Democratic rivals in this district (previous to reapportionment, OHD-37), usually by 65% to 35%. But this past election, 53% of voters in OHD-41 rejected SB-5.

Last year, when the Republican representative for this district, Peggy Lehner, was promoted to the Ohio Senate, the small clique running the local Republican Party got to choose who they wanted to fill the empty seat. And, they chose Oakwood attorney, Jim Butler.

Most voters in OHD-41 are women, and, by far, most are unaffiliated.

Butler, on a personal level, seems a quality person. He is a Navy Academy graduate and a former Navy Aviator. But his views are to the far right and, I believe, outside of the mainstream of voters in OHD-41. Butler supported and defended SB-5, as well as every other legislation dreamed up by the most far out Republicans. Butler is on the House Education Committee and, in committee, voted for an amazing law, HB136, that would subtract money from public schools and fund vouchers for religious private schools. (HB136 has not yet been brought to the Assembly.)

To challenge Butler, OHD-41 Democrats have a great candidate, Caroline Gentry, and, it looks like the stars have aligned — Kasich’s and Butler’s radicalism, repeal of SB-5, a great Democratic candidate — so that, miracles of miracles, OHD-41 this election has a good shot of sending a Democrat to the Ohio House.

An analysis of the voter base in OHD-41 shows opportunities for the Democrats. Yes, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats almost by 2:1. But, still, here are some other facts:

There are over 7000 Democrats in OHD-41. And Kasich and the radical actions of the 129th Assembly may just provide the fire needed to propel a lot of these Democrats into grass roots activism.

There are over 11,000 voters age 18-30 and 93% of these voters are unaffiliated. It is this age group that is most likely to vote Democratic and so the huge size of this group is an advantage for a qualified Democratic candidate.

56% of registered OHD-41 voters are women. A qualified Democrat who is a woman has an advantage with this huge block.

72% of registered OHD-41 voters are unaffiliated. Yes, the biggest block of these voters habitually choose Republican candidates, but their unaffiliated status means they should be open to considering a qualified Democrat.

Maybe Democratic candidates at all levels should try to get on the same page:
Is Race to the Top faltering in Ohio? Where is the get well plan? Who really believes ARRA/RttT spending will deliver? What are the key components of ed reform that promotes economic revival? Are they supported by RttT? By any funding? What do district boards and business advisory councils need to know so they set priorities appropriately?

Question for Ohio House candidates: Can you find Ohio’s plan to address human rights abuses in Ohio’s public schools? How are activities coordinated among layers and branches of government? Who (government and non-governmental) contributes to this effort? How is status communicated? How is status from 50 states rolled up for the United Nations’ committee responsible for monitoring US compliance?

Please let me know if any Democratic nominees have answers. In the meantime, you might consider tempering your name-calling–Unless you are prepared to make the case that somewhere there is a better strategy than vouchers for addressing abuse and inequity in Ohio public education.

Eric, “name calling” means using language that is meant as an insult, meant to be abusive, and my referring to Jim Butler as “radical” had no such intent, but rather was meant to be an objective description of the Republican actions in this 129th Ohio Assembly and a accurate evaluation of Mr. Butler’s political philosophy. I imagine that Republicans in the State Assembly would be proud to be recognized as “radical,” that is, as uncompromising. One dictionary definition of “radical” is “supporting an extreme section of a political party,” and in the same spirit as Newt Gingrich who mocks “moderate” Republicans, I imagine the Republican block of the Assembly is proud that they see themselves as purists, as, extremists in their promotion of free enterprise, etc.

Wouldn’t it be beneficial to candidates from the Democratic parties if they sought out advisors who knew the difference between the ethical obligation to provide assist needy children and the impeachable offense of defying human rights treaties?

Or did Governor Strickland have has hand-picked state superintendent take that out of high school civics?