In my first show of the year, I came up with some bold predictions and some not-so-bold predictions. I didn’t get through every last word of them on the air, so I decided to pare down my notes and post them for easy access. (Yes, this is pared down!) Given my number one prediction: “Trump crashes, Cruz rises, JEB steals super Tuesday,” I was particularly motivated to post my list when I saw today’s Wall Street Journal headline “Cruz Vaults Past Trump in Iowa.” Could be Trump is on his way to crashing, and Cruz is obviously rising, but will JEB steal Super Tuesday? That brings up a question I hadn’t thought of a month ago…

Does Super Tuesday even matter anymore? The rules changes in the Republican primary process means that all primaries and caucuses before March 15 (except South Carolina) will award delegates proportionally to their vote percentages, so this could be a neck-and-neck–and-neck! race for another month or so. Even New Hampshire might not be a must-win-or-place contest as it once was. From what I can tell, no one–Democrat or Republican–has ever been nominated who hasn’t won first or second in New Hampshire, but I think if JEB takes third place (or even fourth!) he might break that rule. (Perhaps I should modify my “JEB steals super Tuesday” to “JEB surprises in New Hampshire”–not as much pizzazz, but let’s just say, JEB’s trajectory is about to change–that is, if I’m at all correct in my extremely cynical suspicion that this is all a bit manipulated…)

Top Ten Predictions for 2016

BIG Election Surprise

BOLD prediction…Trump crashes, Cruz rises, JEB steals super Tuesday

The gambit has always been to make JEB look like the only sane one as I surmised in July 2015 when Trump first started to dominate the mainstream media for no apparent reason

February Surprise takes Trump out

Trump gets a reality show or something out of this, but not the nomination

Avalanche of big money to JEB

Big money continues to flow to Cruz who will have to throw his delegates to JEB as his birth issue threatens to disrupt the Republican nominating process

The Cruz birther issue began to role out week one--Trump scooped me! (My show anyway–I’d been tweeting about this and much of the other stuff for weeks or months already.)

Pulling back on effective policing in inner cities / increasing gun control will increase crimeor the perception of crime and create demands for more aggressive policing

Precrime? (longer term)

“social media threat assessment”

push to access social media in wake of san Bernardino

More failures in surveillance, policing, more attacks, more justification for more of the same!

Events & narratives will increase fear of refugees, immigrants, Muslims & American minorities to encourage the US political right to abandon objective rights such as those enshrined in the Bill of Rights

Anti-war left reactivated…

Will Truther talk reemerge if a Republican is in the WH?

OBAMA’S BUCKET LIST ITEM: Gun Control

Operation Common Sense continues

More mass shootings

More calls for surveillance

More gun control

No-gun lists disguised as No Fly Lists

Crack down on the press? Shutting down sites that “promote terrorism” but could just be alternative viewpoints about the endless war

Climate change agreement designed to fail, justifying calls for world govt

Drones will increasingly be seen everywhere

Obamacare fees will skyrocket…

(The time stamp on my original document reads “Created on 12/28/15 3:59 PM”–it’s not proof because these things can be altered, but it is when I first put this list together. )

UPDATE: One more thing…on the air January 9, 2016, I mentioned that X22 Dave rightly predicted in 2015 after Obama’s post-San Bernardino shooting speech that 2016 would be the year of the lone wolf…I think he’s right, you’ll hear that expression all year long. (IMO, 2015 was the right-wing nutjob from the Louisiana movie shooting to the planned Parenthood shooting to the Charleston Confederate Flag-toting shooter, etc.)