Forum Digest: Humanity in 2160

Data File Updated:
Thursday, October 02, 2014

The
Terran Colonial Authority

In 2160 CE, Human
society is composed of six independent worlds (of which Earth is
one), and each world is divided into many independent nations, so there's no
one centralized government representing all of Humanity. The
next best thing is the Terran Colonial Authority (TCA),
a treaty organization which oversees interstellar issues,
manages the colonial process, and provides for the common
defense of Humanity through the military (Colonial Fleet) and exploration (Scout
Corps) arms. The TCA is run by a council of delegates from the six
worlds, but

in practice, its policies tend to be dominated by Earth's
interests. Which is not terribly unfair, considering that the
vast majority of Humanity still reside on Earth.

The TCA was founded in 2107 to replace the hodgepodge of
competing colonial organizations that had handled the earlier
colonizations of the Alpha Centauri system, in the hope of
preventing juridisctional disputes during the scramble to
colonize Tau Ceti II (Aldea). The Scout Corps was formed out of
the best of the existing exploratory teams of that early period.
The military Colonial Fleet was authorized in 2115 to prevent
armed conflict between the competing interests on Aldea.

The TCA is somewhere in between NATO and the US Federal
Government in the scope of its powers, run by a delegation of
member states and a federal bureaucracy. No doubt the large
Earth nations will require some special concessions to sit down
at the same table with tiny colonial nations, perhaps in the
form of veto power or something like the bicameral system of the
US Senate and Congress, but the details aren't terribly
important in story terms.

An important thing to consider when thinking about the
colonies is that each colony world is not going to be a
monolithic entity; each world may have dozens of independent
colonies, set up under different charters. Some will be on
friendly terms and may cooperate to form a planetwide
meta-government, and some may be on unfriendly or even hostile
terms with each other. At the current time, there are no major
hostilities between the various nation-states, and those that
are unfriendly have temporarily set aside their disagreements in
view of the greater mutual threat.

When a colony is first chartered, it is probably not yet
recognized as an independent nation, and will probably need a
sponsor, which will be an existing (usually Earth) nation-state,
a corporation, or occasionally the TCA itself. The goals that
the colony needs to reach will be explicitly specified in the
charter. A colony that has not yet earned statehood will
probably have a TCA governor, who might be appointed or elected,
but who probably has to be approved by the TCA.

Is there a set of
standards that these governments must meet in order to be
recognized? Sort of like the standards that NATO imposes
(civilian control of the military, etc) on prospective members?

Member nations, in particular the chartered colonies, will be
required to adhere to a sort of bill of rights as a condition of
membership, but otherwise TCA members remain independent,
sovereign nation-states, and may maintain their own planetside
militaries – only space-based forces, especially those with FTL
capability, are regulated by the TCA. Although the TCA does have
a Colonial Marines service, their main instrument of enforcement
is the threat of denying access to interstellar shipping, which
is critical to all of the colonies.

I would like to think that autocracy and
systematic oppression will be out of style by 2160; it's bad for
business. Of course, the millennia-old
conflicts between the social and ethnic groups on Earth will
still exist (and some of these will no doubt be carried to the
stars), but I think the most oppressive of Earth governments will have
been cleaned out by then. In 2160 anybody with access to the
appropriate materials can make a weapon of mass destruction...
so a nation that has internal strife is a clear and present
danger to the world at large, and the other nations can't sit by
and wait for something to go wrong.

The Worlds of
Humanity

The "Six Worlds of Humanity" mentioned by Alex are Earth, Mars,
Alpha ("First"), Proxima ("Near"), Aldea ("Village") and
Esperanza ("Hope"). Humanity first began settlement of Mars
around 2050, and developed the first working hyperspace jump
drive in 2086. At the turn of the 22nd Century, Humanity began
to establish extrasolar colonies in the Alpha Centauri and Tau
Ceti star systems, and later at the 82 Eridani system. All four
of the human-inhabited systems are yellow G-type stars.

Earth (Sol III)

99% of all of
humanity still live on Earth. Though the population has
increased along with technology, and some of the largest cities
have grown into megalopolitan monstrosities, I think people today would have
no trouble recognizing the Earth of 2160. Earth is still divided
into about 200 nations-states, though many of these are joined
in local alliances or federations. Earth is renowned for its
extensive orbital infrastructure; the
TCA Headquarters and the majority of humanity's ship production
infrastructure is located in Earth orbit.

What is the current
government of Earth? The United Nations? The TCA?

There is no united Earth government. The TCA's jurisdiction
is limited to interstellar affairs. The United Nations may still
exist, but it has no real legal authority or means to enforce
its resolutions. The majority of Earth nations belong to local confederations similar
to today's European Union or Russian Federation. These confederations in turn will be part
of a treaty organization (which will functionally replace the
UN) with authority
to arbitrate over disputes, and this will be the closest thing
Earth has to a planetary government.

Mars (Sol IV)

Mars was first colonized in pre-FTL days (around 2050), and
has become a center of heavy industry, as carbon and greenhouse
gas emissions that would be considered pollution on Earth are
very welcome on Mars, to help thicken the sparse atmosphere.
Mars is cold and arid, has a surface gravity of .38 G, and a
very thin atmosphere, which still far too thin for humans to
survive in without pressure suits. There is very little surface
water, and dust storms are frequent. Mars has been the subject
of early terraforming efforts, including solar mirrors to
increase global temperature, and various introduced engineered
species of algae to oxygenate the atmosphere. These efforts have
begun to show benefit to the inhabitants, but will require
hundreds more years before the planet becomes anything close to
habitable by unprotected humans, and even then only in the lower
altitudes. The major settlements are in the northern lowlands
and the Hellas basin in the Southern Hemisphere, with smaller
outposts in the Tharsis highlands and elsewhere. There are major facilities in orbit, including several shipyards
and orbital habitats. The main campus of the TCA Space Academy
is located in Hellas Planitia. Population of Mars is around 50
million, divided into numerous sovereign nations and colonies.

The largest Martian nation is Yinghuo (Mandarin: "Firefly"),
which controls most of the northern lowlands and has its capital
Yuchin in Chryse Planitia. Yinghuo began as a Chinese
manufacturing colony, but it quickly grew in prosperity and
power and gained independence in 2081, and became a major player
in the second phase of extra-Solar colonization. Yinghuo has
traditionally been aggressive in its dealings with other
entities, involved in recurring conflicts with the Tharsis
independents, and was a player in the dispute over early Aldea
territorial rights that nearly led to armed conflict and spurred
the formation of the TCA and the Colonial Fleet.

The second largest Martian nation is the Ares International
Corporation located in the Hellas basin, and is more
metropolitan than the largely ethnic Chinese state of Yinghuo.
AIC is also focused on manufacturing, but has additonally been
conducting terraforming experiments in the low-altitude,
confined territory of Hellas.

Alpha (Alpha Centauri A V)

Alpha was the first extra-solar colony, located around the A
star of Alpha Centauri, a trinary system, and the nearest star
system to Sol (at 4.3 light years). It is a cold, dry
Mars-sized planet (.4 G surface gravity) with a very thin atmosphere. The colony
was primarily a research installation until later colonization
of more distant systems allowed for the development of more
infrastructure to support transit to the outer colonies, with
Alpha's smaller gravity well (compared with Proxima) making it
the more attractive refueling stop for outbound starships.
Population about 600,000, divided between several independent
colonies. Alpha and Proxima are jointly admininstrated by a TCA
governor located on Proxima.

Proxima (Alpha Centauri B III)

Proxima was the second extra-solar colony, also located in
the Alpha Centauri system. It is Venus-sized, with a surface
gravity of .9 G. It has an elongated orbit around the B star in
the system; for most of its 15-year orbit, the planet is very
cold and all the surface water is frozen; when the planet passes
through perihelion, it warms up substantially and small
temporary seas form, supporting primitive native microorganisms
(which survive in geothermal vents during the cold periods).
Human population around 18 million in numerous independent
colonies, under the jurisdiction of the local TCA governor.
Although Alpha is the less signficant of the two colony worlds,
inhabitants of the Alpha Centauri system are often collectively
referred to as "Alphans." (Note that "Proxima" the planet should
not be confused with Proxima Centauri (a.k.a. Alpha Centauri C),
the small red star which is the third component of the trinary
system.

Aldea (Tau Ceti II)

Aldea is an Earth-sized planet (1.1 G surface gravity) in the Tau Ceti
system, 11.9 light years from Sol. Aldea has a large amount of surface water (even more
than Earth), and a dense but breathable atmosphere. Tau Ceti is
an ancient Population II star more than twice the age of our
Sun, so Aldea is very poor in heavy elements, but the ancient
oceans are rich in Helium-3, a key fuel for second-generation
fusion reactors. Aldea's metallic
core is small but geologically active, due to the tidal stresses
of its large moon, providing continuing heat in an ancient core
that had long since exhausted most of its supply
of radioactive elements.
The small core and mantle support incredibly deep and very dense
seas, upon which a few light and rocky continents float. Though
native life on Aldea is considered primitive by Earth standards,
it is much, much older. Some speculate that the scarcity of
heavy elements has slowed or even arrested the evolutionary development of
life into more advanced forms. Aldea has wet, stormy weather
most of the year, driven by extreme tides. Human population about 125 million, making it
the largest base of humanity outside of Earth.

The colonies in the Alpha Centauri system were set up
primarily as research stations, but the valuable fuel sources on
Aldea (and its more welcoming environment) made it a true target
for both commercial development and large-scale habitation. This
led to inevitable disputes between competing colonial interests.
In particular, the Sol-Tau Ceti trade route became the object of
a proxy conflict between interests on Aldea controlled by a
group of multinational Earth corporations, and those controlled
by Yinghuo, an influential Martian nation. In response to the
increasing pressure exerted by Yinghuo, the other Aldean
colonies joined together to form a collective. When both sides
began arming their transports, escalation seemed inevitable, and
the TCA charter was amended to allow for the formation of the
Terran Colonial Fleet. Under the terms of the agreement, the
Aldean Self-Defense Force surrendered its armed ships to the new
Colonial Fleet, and all of the Aldean colonies (including the
Yinghuo proxies) agreed to form a global federated government,
which is a full member of the TCA and persists to the present as
the only planetwide government in Human space.

Esperanza (82 Eridani VI)

Esperanza is the newest colony, and the farthest away
from Earth (at 82 Eridani, 19.7 light years from Sol). Esperanza is arid but Earth-sized (.8
G surface gravity). Like Tau Ceti, 82 Eridani is an older Population II star
with lower than normal metallicity, and Esperanza is
comparatively metal-poor and
lifeless.
Esperanza is arid, cold, dark, and plagued by near-constant dust
storms. The main benefit of the Esperanza system is its
strategic location, 82 Eridani being the only G-type star along
the route leading out of the relatively isolated bubble of Human
space. Ambitious terraforming projects have begun on Esperanza,
but are in their earliest stages. Population: 5 million, under
the administration of a TCA governor.

Is there much
colonization outside of these six worlds? In asteroid belts or
Oort clouds or whatever?

There are outposts, mining camps and
the like elsewhere in these systems (and perhaps in other
systems as well), but these six are the permanent settlements.

And how much
commerce is there between the various colonies?

A lot. The colonies are still
heavily dependent on Earth and Mars for many supplies, especially
finished goods, as well as immigrants, and there are a lot of
raw materials traveling the return route from the colonies to Sol. There's enough
commercial shipping for the TCA to need to build a fleet to keep it in line.

So we can
assume that piracy is a very real threat? What about the
behavior of the pirates? Are they likely to cripple a ship
for its supplies, capture it and ransom the crew and/or ship?

The Terran Colonial Fleet exists to deter a number
of potential threats to interstellar shipping: piracy,
smuggling, hijacking, terrorism, and sabotage or blockade by
rival merchants or nations. Since starships are often more valuable than the
cargo they carry, both could be targets of potential pirates. A side-benefit of the Fleet is defense against
potential alien hostiles, which is one reason there are some heavier
ships (such as the heavy cruisers) which are not strictly
necessary for patrol duties, and probably spend most of their
time docked at base.

If someone did
have black market goods where would they most likely be
offloaded, aside from independent operators? Where are independents,
i.e. pirates, fringe groups, exiled criminals, religious
extremists, etc. most likely to settle?

Along with the high cost of
operating a
warship, the biggest obstacle to piracy is the lack of a
base from which to refuel and a market for stolen goods.
Starship fuel requires substantial infrastructure to refine and
store. Few criminal organizations
would have the resources to establish an outpost in deep space,
and any such base would probably be quickly found and destroyed
by the Fleet. So, criminals and smugglers have to be sneaky... a
shady corporation, for example, might buy goods stolen from a
rival and shelter the thieves.

All of the colony worlds are only marginally habitable, so any
new settlement is going to be heavily dependent on supply from
some outside entity (usually a colonial authority) until it can
become self-sufficient. It's very difficult for a fringe group
to establish a settlement without substantial financial backing.
Also, in the age of mechanization, the need for unskilled labor
is not very high, so forced labor would not be in great demand.
In this early phase of colonization, passage offworld is very
expensive; nations do not pay exorbitant sums to move criminals and malcontents
to the stars where they must be supported at great expense. The vast majority of the colonists must either pay
their own way offworld or have valuable skills to offer a
corporate or government employer.

Overpopulation may provide motivation for people to move
offworld to escape it, but this movement won't significantly
reduce overpopulation on Earth, so it's not any kind of solution
for overpopulation. If Earth nations choose to subsidize the
movement of population to the colonies, it will be for other
reasons.

In our Age of Sail colonial period, it was common for
colonists to pay for transportation to the New World by agreeing
to enter into limited terms of indentured servitude. While
indentures will probably not be legal in this future, many
colonists will probably still agree to contracts that require a
certain number of years of employment in return for transport
costs, which will come due if the worker decides to quit early.
So there is the strong possibility of worker/employer conflict
on that issue alone, as frontier conditions are likely to be
harsh, and workers may be inclined to feel mistreated due to the
fact that they can't really quit.

Rogue asteroids
come to mind for their defensive and resource values, space
stations, or planetary bodies, etc. How would colonial and
naval authorities deal with this?

They'd move in and either take
the base over, or simply destroy it if capture seemed too
difficult.

Due to the
inter-colony trade is there a significant number of independent
merchants? How do independent merchants react to piracy, i.e.
do they trade with the pirated goods, set up agreements to
move through pirate space, etc.

Starships are very expensive to
build and to operate. The majority of transport ships are
owned by large corporations; some are operated by smaller
companies, and a few are independently operated. Regardless of
who owns the ship, all cargoes have to pass customs at local
ports, so shippers have to be careful about where their cargoes
come from; illegal cargoes must be carefully
"laundered" to disguise their origins.

How did all of
these groups react to the news of alien presence?

The opening of alien markets will
definitely be good news for merchants... both legitimate and
otherwise. The existence of a dozen or so alien markets that are
not under the control of TCA regulations will no doubt be a boon
to would-be pirates or smugglers. But this would be after the
war is concluded, assuming that humanity survives. Currently, no
one but a select few agents of the government (notably the Scout
Corps) has any physical means of contacting the distant alien
nations.

With its large population, wouldn't Aldea be quickly gaining
on Mars as humanity's second planet?

Yes, Aldea is the most influential
of the colonies. Mars still has more industry, however, as they
got a 50-year head start and specialize in industrial
production. Mars is a haven for industry, as many activities
that would be considered polluting on other worlds are
considered beneficial on Mars.

The
Terran Fleet and Scout Corps

Humanity's space forces have three tiers:
the local system authorities have their own police ships (mostly
frigates) that are responsible for in-system affairs. The
Colonial Fleet is responsible for patrolling the interstellar
trade lanes and responding to emergencies and violations of
treaty (assisting the local police when called upon). The Scout
Corps is responsible for deep space exploration, and patrol and
search & rescue in systems that are not on the regular trade
routes.

Humanity has
many more starships than are directly involved with the Alien
Contact mission (including
military warships), but few that can travel such a long distance
without resupply. Which is why the Scout Corps (whose peacetime
job is deep-space research) got the call.
For a list of active Terran military vessels as of the time of Alex's
departure from Esperanza, 17 May 2160, see the Terran
Ship Classes entry.

Colonial warships are armed with a combination of point-defense
laser turrets, heavy lasers, mass driver turrets, and missile
tubes. The Bennet-class scout is armed with two missile tubes
and a single point-defense twin-laser turret. The "modified-Bennet"
refit adds a third (rear-firing) missile tube, and two medium
mass-driver turrets port/starboard.

The five main ships involved in the Alien Contact mission are Pellew,
Utsumi, Bellarmine, Matveyev and Prabhu.

The
standard armament for Terran warships includes lasers, mass
drivers, and missiles (nuclear-tipped and otherwise). Terran missiles are primitive by Loroi
or Umiak standards (they probably have about a 12G burn; the Tempest
could easily outrun them), but Bellarmine did have them.

Out
of curiosity, how does this rank up to the Loroi/Umiak fleet
technologies, size, and numbers?

Numbers-wise,
there are about as many ships in the Tempest's squadron
(28) as in the whole Terran fleet. You can compare classes and sizes of Loroi and Terran
ships here and
here, respectively.

Tech-wise, the major combatants are about three generations ahead of the
Terrans; Humanity is in the later stages of
TL9, while the Loroi and Umiak
are in the very early stages of TL11. Terran vessels have no defensive screens, and are
limited to about 6G acceleration. Loroi and Umiak ships can
typically sustain 26G
acceleration, and their beams weapons do a lot more
damage at much greater ranges than Terran lasers (although the Loroi do
still use lasers for point-defense weapons, and are considered
quaint for still using them). The Loroi were using weapons and
systems similar to what the Terrans have now in
the war with the Delrias that formed their empire some nine
hundred years ago. Terran weapons are capable of damaging Loroi
vessels, but only at very close range.

I'm surprised (except for space considerations) that the
Bellarmine wouldn't have an aft "chaser" torpedo
tube-if only to keep people away from it while it's running away
at full speed for the hyperspace limit.

Bellarmine's weapon
systems were an afterthought; she wasn't really designed as a warship. But torpedoes fired from the
forward tubes can track a target no matter where it is. Torpedo
combat is long-range combat.
The ejection from the tube is just to get the torpedo far enough
from the launching vehicle so that it can safely light its
drive.

Humanity
has a large stockpile of nuclear weapons. Can't we use them as
some sort of weapon in this war?

I don't think current nuclear warheads have anywhere near a 158
year lifespan, but no doubt there will be plenty of new and
effective warheads at hand in 2160. Such warheads are relatively cheap; it's the
devices required to deliver them on target that are expensive. A
missile that can reliably deliver a warhead to a 30G
accelerating target at 1 light-second range is beyond human technology in 2160.

That said, nukes are still nukes, and
kinetic energy is still kinetic energy. Under the right
circumstances at close range, a Terran warship could do very significant damage to a Loroi
or Umiak vessel.
The problem is achieving those circumstances.

Do
we have carriers? or do the heavy cruisers carry a significant
number of fighters? I know that a fighter won't be very effective
but alas they are so glamorous.

Humans
do have unmanned fighters that operate from bases and stations, but they
haven't yet built any carriers. The other warships have shuttle
bays that could theoretically carry a small handful of fighters.
If the need arose, a transport could conceivably be converted
into a makeshift light carrier.

From what I understand, Humanity is
completely and utterly boned in this galactic war because from
what I can see we are trounced in all comparable aspects with
the Loroi and Umiak. Aside from having our civilization turned
into either slave labor or being completely devoted to an
industrial planet I can't think of anything the Terrans can or
could do. Do they have anything to offer besides inferiority?

I get this question a lot, but it's a
little bit like asking, "What could Hobbits possibly offer in
the war against Sauron?" The question can't be answered without
telling the story.

Alien Contact

On October 31 2158, an alien vessel stumbled into the 82
Eridani system, which was the site of Humanity's Esperanza
colony. After a great deal of alarm from the Human colonial
installations in system, contact was made with the alien vessel
by the Scout Corps transport ECS-052 Tartakovsky.
Although it would take some time to establish effective
communications with the aliens, it became quickly obvious that
they were not hostile. On the contrary, it was a transport
filled with civilian refugees of an alien species who identified
themselves as the Orgus. At length they were able to communicate
that they were fleeing a massive conflict between two
star-spanning empires: the Loroi and Umiak and their various
allies.

The Orgus had been a small nation located on the periphery of
what would eventually become the Umiak sphere of influence. As
an interstellar presence, the Orgus would probably have been
just a stop on the long ancient trade routes, sort of an oasis
on the dusty and largely disused “silk road” between distant
civilizations farther up the Orion galactic arm, and the nations of the
Local Bubble that
were soon to come under Umiak domination. As the Umiak Empire
began to grow, the Orgus (and other nearby nations) would have
been known to the Umiak, but not of much interest to them. Even
after the start of the war and the resulting aggressive Umiak
expansionism, it would have been difficult for the Orgus to
believe that one day there would be Umiak warships knocking on
their door. Even as late as the Tithric incident in 2141, there
may not have been much alarm regarding the Umiak announcements
of non-neutrality, partially because the Orgus and their
neighbors were not near the borders with the Loroi, and
partially because the Umiak were still then a remote power whose
threats were not taken seriously. It was not clear at the time
that the Umiak would take the non-neutrality doctrine as license
to annex their neighbors.

Some time early in 2158, the Umiak launched an unexpected
attack on Orgus territory, and quickly defeated the Orgus
defenders. The Orgus who arrived at Esperanza were a collection
of refugees that had gathered at a remote trade outpost at the
edge of Orgus territory. Some would have been returning from
abroad, and some fleeing interior areas. What they would have in
common is that none would have much information on what
diplomacy (if any) preceded the Umiak military action, nor many
details about the invasion itself, once it had taken place, as
no information left a system once the Umiak had taken control of
it. The Orgus refugees did not know what the Umiak had in store
for them, be it genocide, oppressive occupation, reorganization,
or merely some more benign form of control. Those Orgus still in
outlying areas who had decided not to submit to the Umiak fled
in what transport they could arrange.

The ship the Orgus arrived in at 82 Eridani was a freighter that
had been returning to Orgus space from outlying areas. They
removed the cargo and filled it with as many refugees as it
could sustain. Many such ships attempted to flee Umiak dominion,
mostly to destinations that were previously known, along the
existing trade routes. However, most of the nations surrounding
the Orgus had already agreed to some form of affiliation with
the Umiak, so some ships did not take the direct routes through
the silk road, but instead took detours that they believed could
eventually deliver them to the desired destinations. Some
detours required making jumps that had not been tested for
millennia. Some ships did not survive the attempt. That this
vessel found a Human colony at 82 Eridani was unexpected. Rather
than continue the hazardous search for an alternate route up-arm, these Orgus surrendered themselves to the Terran
authorities at Esperanza, and their flight ended. Several
thousand Orgus offered their ship and their combined knowledge
in exchange for sanctuary.

What did the Humans learn from the Orgus?

The Orgus transport was a
civilian vessel that did not have weapons or defensive screens,
but the engines, infrastructure and materials are ahead of what the
Humans have, though not up to the standard of the major combatants.
The ship and many of the refugees' personal items have been
(politely) confiscated by the Terran authorities and are under
intense study.

The refugees eagerly supplied Terran intelligence with
detailed information on Orgus space and the trade routes known
to them. In this sense, Humanity may know as much or more about
some of the peripheral races and the ancient trade routes
through that sector as the Umiak do. This information is they
only way that Terran scouts could have arrived along the axis of
Loroi/Umiak conflict.

Was the existence of the aliens kept
secret or announced to the public?

The existence of the Orgus and the war is common knowledge.
The degree to which the Humans are outclassed and the genocidal
nature of the war is probably not common knowledge. You have to
tell the population something... you can't gear up a democratic
society for total war without explaining why it's necessary.

Where are the refugees now? (All on one
planet? Spread out?) What is their status in Terran Society?

The Terran Colonial Authority took custody of the Orgus ship,
crew and passengers, though the ship and most of the Orgus
remain at Esperanza due to issues of local sovereignty. Many of
the Orgus have been transported to other locations, mostly
Earth, to serve as experts and teachers, especially regarding
the Trade Language and the locations of the trade routes, on
which some Orgus individuals were aids in teaching classes at
the TCA Academy (which Alex attended).

The Orgus are aliens who have requested sanctuary. The
current TCA charter does not recognize the rights of aliens, so
the status of an Orgus is dependent upon what human nation it
resides in, and what deals have been made. The existence of the
Orgus has not been kept a secret (as one can hardly expect to
place six planets on a war footing with no explanation), but
they have certainly been kept under the tightest security, for a
variety of reasons which I'm sure you can imagine. As you can
expect, each and every one of the Orgus expatriates has been
closely interviewed by the Terran authorities, and their
movements are carefully controlled.

How did they react to the possibility of
the humans allying with the Umiak?

It is unlikely that the Terran authorities discussed any of
their plans for the survival of humanity with alien refugees.

Did the Loroi know of / meet the Orgus
prior to the Umiak attack?

The Loroi had no direct contact with the Orgus prior to the
war. Orgus territory is located on the other side of Umiak
territory from the Loroi, and even before the war, the Umiak did
not permit unauthorized vessels to pass through their borders.
Loroi knowledge of the region beyond the Umiak "iron curtain"
would be limited to ancient legend perpetuated by the
Historians, and what Loroi intelligence could obtain from the
races they came into contact with. The Orgus refugees, never having
met a Loroi, certainly know them by reputation and
(Umiak-supplied) propaganda.

The Bellarmine Incident

The
second (and third, and fourth) strike against the Bellarmine should indicate that
the attack was no accident. And 850 kilometers is considered very
close range here; especially since some of the combatants are
over 1 km long. Bellarmine herself is (or rather was)
190m in length.

When the
second strike "ignited" the Bellarmine's fuel
tanks, what sort of fuel ignited? If it was 5,000 tons of
anti-matter, we wouldn't be enjoying this comic 'cause our
friend Alex would be a spike in the universal background
radiation level. If it was hydrogen, what ignited? Did the energy weapon strike
cause the hydrogen to fuse, resulting a massive explosion? Or
was this a "mechanical" explosion - the liquid/slush
hydrogen was rapidly converted to gas by the energy weapon
strike, and we're seeing the equivalent of "steam
explosion".

The Bellarmine's
main tanks would have been liquid hydrogen, fuel for a fusion
drive. Secondary tanks would have contained oxygen and other
substances. I'm not enough of a physicist to know exactly what
will happen chemically to liquid hydrogen when you subject it to
intense heat in the direct absence of oxygen, but as you've
suggested there would be at the very least a pressure explosion
(as the fuel tank was ruptured), and there was enough oxygen in
the vicinity (from storage tanks and escaping atmosphere) to
create a noticeable fireball. I don't think the fuel would have
reached fusion temperature; I assume a thermonuclear explosion
at such close range would have been inescapably lethal to Alex.
So, technically only a portion of the fuel would have
"ignited" -- that is, burned chemically as a result of
contact with oxygen.

Isn't it
unwise to send out manned scouts, thus declaring our existence to
the combatants? Wouldn't unmanned, remotely controlled probes have
been a better idea? And why was the Bellarmine sent out alone?
Sounds like the mission was set up to fail.

The problem with sending an unmanned "probe" is that
there is no faster-than-light communication by which to relay
information back to base; the ship must return with a report.
So, there is no such thing as a "remote control"
starship.

As for having an AI control the ship, I don't see the advantage.
The same steps can be taken to "sanitize" a manned
ship information-wise to prevent an enemy from learning the
location of Earth as can be taken with an unmanned ship, but
remember that the whole idea was to eventually make contact;
according to their intelligence, eventual contact with the
warring parties is inevitable. Both sides are expanding in
attempt to gain needed resources. As for the choice of whether
to hide or attempt contact, this issue has already been
discussed. The story of Humanity cowering in a hole until the
Umiak arrive to conquer them wouldn't have made for a very
interesting storyline, in my opinion. The scout's intention was
to gather intelligence first and contact second, as the
Bellarmine was attempting to do; that there happened to be a
hostile vessel in their lap was unforeseeable bad luck.

And as far as contact is concerned, the idea is that the scouts
must be able to make decisions on the spot, as they can't call
home for instructions. Would you want to trust an AI with the
future of your species? I wouldn't. Programmers are very clever
people, but communications with other sentient beings is not
their strong suit. (I should know, I'm a programmer.)

Time is an important factor to Humanity. Hostile scouts could
discover Earth tomorrow or five years in the future. It has
already taken more than 6 months to organize the contact
mission, and the Bellarmine spent almost two months making the
200 light year journey; to report back takes another two months.
There isn't a lot of time to waste.

Why send in Bellarmine
alone? If ships were sent in pairs, one could stay at the jump point
and report if the other was destroyed.

Humanity
doesn't
have an unlimited supply of long-range starships. The Scout
Corps only has six such ships, and four of them are involved in
this mission (along with a fifth long-range transport that
serves as a refueling point and relay station between the scouts and home base). Not
knowing the precise location of either the Umiak or Loroi, the
planners chose to
spread their 4 scouts across a large area, hoping to find what
they were looking for. Two groups of two ships each is, in my
opinion, putting too many eggs in too few baskets. The
Bellarmine has been destroyed, but there are still three other
scouts out there.