Three weeks ago, even Geelong’s coaching staff wasn’t sure exactly where the Cats were at, let alone the rest of the football world.

Geelong had just scraped over the line against Greater Western Sydney, its fourth relatively uninspiring win in a row. The facts said the Cats had won as many games as top two teams Sydney and Hawthorn. The perception was they lagged some distance behind the Swans and Hawks as a premiership contender.

The brains trust at Simonds Stadium thought then that the upcoming games against North Melbourne and Fremantle would be decisive in determining just how realistic was a tilt at a fourth premiership in eight seasons.

The wrap.

So were they? The 2-0 scoreline suggests so. But again, perception may beg to differ, the Cats just hanging on at their home fortress against a Fremantle side which squandered early chances and had lost critical backman Luke McPharlin.

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The difficulty in attempting to pick a potential premier from four eminently qualified teams – three recent premiers and a grand finalist all likely to head into a finals campaign with a double chance – is that the claims and counter-claims of each might well vary according to who plays whom.

So far all four have played four games against the others. Sydney has a 3-1 record, the Hawks and Cats are 2-2 and Freo 1-3, the last three all with one of their last three games against a top-four rival, the Swans fortunate to have none.

You’d think Hawthorn will feel more comfortable drawing Fremantle this September than Geelong. The Dockers, meanwhile, might prefer playing the Cats than Sydney or the Hawks. And so on.

But there’s another, think critical, factor looming in a race this tight. Four of the last six AFL premierships have been won not necessarily by the best-performed side of the season, but the one which found the most improvement over the last month or so of the season. It won’t surprise if that becomes five from seven in 2014.

If I were framing a ''scope for improvement'' ladder right now, I’d probably have Geelong and Hawthorn on top, from Fremantle, then Sydney. That’s no knock on the Swans, of course, more a credit to how well they’ve played this season. And maybe they’re good enough as it is not to need to find something extra. But it sure wouldn’t hurt.

I think ruckman Mike Pyke is looming as their most obvious potential plus. He’s far from their best player, but with Tom Derickx now lost for the season, unless Sydney opts for a greenhorn in Sam Naismith, Pyke is likely to have to hold the fort essentially on his own against the pairings of Aaron Sandilands and Zac Clarke, Ben McEvoy and David Hale and Hamish McIntosh and Mark Blicavs.

Pyke has had seven games since returning from his hamstring injury, but is still to find any decent share of the ball around the ground and was beaten by Port Adelaide’s Matthew Lobbe for hitouts on Saturday night. The Swans need at least some break-even efforts from him this September.

For Hawthorn and Fremantle, the obvious improvement can come with inclusions. And the Hawks’ list is imposing – a Norm Smith medallist in Brian Lake, a finals-hardened midfielder in Brad Sewell, a crucial goalkicker in Jack Gunston and the explosive Cyril Rioli.

Their quality and importance to Hawthorn’s finals structure is obvious, the only question mark match fitness on those returns.

For the Dockers, it’s about just one man’s capacity to make an enormous difference in terms of both quality and structure, Michael Walters last year’s leading goalkicker, and clearly capable of giving Freo Ross Lyon’s much-discussed extra couple of goals per game.

Without him, the Dockers are still lagging a couple of points per week behind their 92.5 point average last season. And while their famed defensive pressure was back in spades against the Cats, the former is a tally still unlikely to provide enough against the potency and goalkicking spread of both Hawthorn and Sydney.

Geelong’s extra few per cent, meanwhile, was in evidence on Saturday night in the tremendous games of Harry Taylor, Corey Enright, Andrew Mackie and Jimmy Bartel.

I wrote on this same page three weeks ago that if those four were to find an extra gear it would go a long way to boosting Geelong from finals nuisance value to genuine flag hope. They picked the right game to do so, the first trio providing that tremendous defensive steel and rebound the Cats have always had at their best, the latter’s three goals crucial.

With obvious exceptions like Joel Selwood and Steve Johnson, Geelong has largely been kept afloat this year by the performances of its emerging youngsters and some lesser lights. More games like Saturday from the veterans gives Chris Scott’s team a far more intimidating profile.

Right now, I reckon Hawthorn and Sydney have still got a few goals on the Cats and Dockers. But that’s not to suggest that they can’t be found. And for all of the ''big four'', finding just a little more here or there over the next seven weeks could amount to a huge difference.

BIRDS TAKING FLIGHT

You wouldn't want to bet your house, or anything much, on either Adelaide or West Coast this season, such has been the erratic nature of both sides.

But the Crows and Eagles are capable of turning it on, and both did it well enough on Sunday to make some rivals for the bottom of the eight more than a little anxious about the next three weekends.

In Brisbane, Adelaide did a number on the Lions, their forward firepower on display even before a barnstorming nine-goal final term. And in Perth, West Coast looked ominous right from the start against Collingwood, snuffing out any lingering hopes of a Magpie revival with a power-packed third term. The Crows spread the load beautifully, Rory Sloane on-song, and Taylor Walker and Eddie Betts always dangerous, but the contributions of Brad Crouch, Matthew Wright and Jarryd Lyons no less important.

West Coast, meanwhile, just picked up from where it had left off against the Crows, its midfield dominant, Matt Priddis now getting the support he'd lacked most of the season, and its army of talls providing the headaches it hadn't had for much of 2014.

Look at both sides in that sort of form and the lofty predictions of many concerning them a few months back don't seem quite so off the mark. And there's a fair bit of damage in the run to September either can yet inflict.

SOME BONUSES FOR BLUES

Carlton is going to end this season with fewer wins than last year, and barring some other unforeseen controversy that sees a team kicked out of the finals, won't be getting a free pass to September.

But as strange as it may sound, there's a decent argument the Blues have got far more out of 2014 than last season, and Saturday's solid win over Gold Coast provided more evidence again in the shape of Irish recruit Ciaran Sheehan.

The debutant had a solid first game indeed, hard at it, athletic, and providing the two most impressive score assists of the day with a couple of lovely passes into the forward zone. While his ball-bouncing remains unorthodox, Sheehan looks a likely type.

Indeed, seldom has the Irish ''experiment'' in AFL ranks had more credibility than right now, with Pearce Hanley an established leading midfielder, and Sheehan's teammate Zach Tuohy also a beautiful kick of the football.

For Carlton, this season has had a real revelation in the form of key defender Sam Rowe, a likely long-term forward in Troy Menzel, encouraging performances from Nick Graham and a recent ruck surprise packet in Cameron Wood.