Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Risk

Area (sq. mi.)

Area Pop.

Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area

No Risk Areas Forecast

SPC AC 091256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST THU JAN 09 2014
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT UPPER-AIR REGIME OF ZONAL TO GENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING NEXT 23 HOURS.
INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR NWRN CONUS -- IS FCST TO
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING 00-06Z TIME
FRAME...THEN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY
SEPARATE SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY W OF BAJA BETWEEN 120-125W -- SHOULD PIVOT EWD ACROSS NWRN
AND N-CENTRAL MEX. NRN PORTION OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PHASE WITH
ROCKIES/HIGH-PLAINS PERTURBATION BY END OF PERIOD...RESULTING IN
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH FROM WRN DAKOTAS SWD TO FAR W TX THEN SWWD
ACROSS NWRN MEX TO SRN BAJA.
AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO APCHG
MID-UPPER TROUGHS. LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN-STREAM
FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT OF MTNS AND BEGIN TO OVERTAKE LEE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND 06Z. BY END OF PERIOD...EXPECT WEAK LOW
OVER CENTRAL/WRN KS WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ERN
NM.
...ARKLATEX AREA TO N TX AND SERN OK...
TSTM OUTLOOK AREA REPRESENTS TWO EPISODES...RELATED TO SAME GENERAL
PROCESS AND OVERLAPPING SPATIALLY...THAT SHOULD BE SEPARATED IN TIME
BY MANY HOURS. AHEAD OF FRONT AND LEE TROUGH...STG LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND MOISTURE-TRANSPORT PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
POSITION-RELATIVE THETAE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THIS REGION SHOULD
INCREASE FAIRLY STEADILY WITH TIME...AS TRAJECTORIES FROM
INCREASINGLY MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ENTRAINED INTO WAA
PLUME. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LTG HAS BEEN DETECTED SO FAR
THIS MORNING IN RELATED PRECIP PLUME...BETWEEN E TX AND SRN AR.
THIS RISK SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING INTO AFTN AS LLJ
ABATES AND LAPSE RATES SUBTLY WEAKEN WITHIN LAYER OF ELEVATED CAPE
SAMPLED BY 12Z SHV RAOB.
LATE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD END OF PERIOD...ANOTHER BAND OF TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN PART OF WAA PLUME AND BEGIN TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF N TX AND SERN OK...CONTINUING ON INTO DAY-2 PERIOD.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPE 200-600 J/KG
AND FAVORABLY MOIST INFLOW WITHIN 40-55 KT LLJ.
...SERN FL...
RESIDUAL ARCTIC FRONT HAS BEEN WEAKENING GRADUALLY AND RETURNING
NWWD ACROSS BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS...WITH MARKED 24-HOUR INCREASES
IN TEMP AND DEW POINT ACROSS THIS REGION. 12Z MFL RAOB SAMPLED NWRN
EDGE OF RETURNING MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR WITH SFC DEW POINT NEAR 70 F
AND 1.75-2 INCH PW. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MRGL...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CINH AND ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THETAE SHOULD
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER STRAITS AND GULF STREAM POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR COAST
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
OVER LAND THIS AFTN AMIDST FAVORABLE DIURNAL SFC HEATING.
..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 01/09/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z