Weak but wet Gulf system aims at Florida’s West Coast

Fresh off a month of near-record rainfall, the Sunshine State shows its flipside once again this week as an area of showers and storms drifts slowly into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan peninsula.

The system, dubbed 91L by the National Hurricane Center, was producing a very broad area of rain from the Northwest Caribbean to the Florida Keys and extending into the Gulf of Mexico off the Southwest Florida coast. It was being given a 20 percent change of becoming a tropical depression, or Tropical Storm Andrea, by Wednesday.

That seemed unlikely since it faces relatively high wind shear levels, which tend to prevent a low pressure from organizing.

This morning, the poorly defined center was estimated to be at 22N 86.6W, or 59 miles north of Cancun. It was drifting north, 534 miles southwest of Palm Beach. None of the major forecasting models show this system reaching tropical storm strength, with the exception of the Canadian model, which ramps it up and sends it into Florida’s Big Bend area on Friday.

The GFS has lost its enthusiasm for 91L and the European recognizes only weak, broad low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico.

The National Weather Service in Miami is predicting 5-7 inches of rain by the end of the week, but it looks like the heavier amounts will be on the West Coast from Naples up to Tampa. (Tampa already received almost 3 inches of rain on Sunday.) The low is forecast to push into the peninsula near Tampa on Thursday, exiting off the East Coast near Daytona Beach on Friday morning.

The South Florida Water Management District graphical forecasts show up to a quarter of an inch falling today along the southeast coast, with heavier amounts in the Keys. By Wednesday, the areas in and around Palm Beach are predicted to get up to an inch of rain, with 2-4 inches on Florida’s West Coast.

The official Palm Beach forecast is for a 50-70 percent chance of rain today through Friday night.

When we finally have a chance to dry out? The new long-range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, released Friday, shows above average South Florida rainfall for the rest of the month. But it does hint at a break from June 10-16.

About the Author

John Nelander is a freelance writer, book editor and publisher in West Palm Beach. Weather Matters features news and observations about the weather with a focus on what's happening in South Florida. The blog also looks at the latest studies on climate change as well as what's happening in the weather forecasting biz. His website is www.pbeditorialservices.com.