The Critical Threats team has prepared a briefing on the ongoing ground operation in Waziristan, examining the timeline of events leading to the operation, the Pakistani force breakdown, the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) structure and key players, the role of other players, the details of the fight on each of the three fronts day-by-day, the potential effect on the war in Afghanistan, among other factors.

Retook Kotkai and have managed to contest dominance over eastern front.

Have managed to slow, or at least check, Pakistani advance on other fronts.

TTP ability to coordinate spectacular attacks outside Waziristan remains intact (Islamabad Int’l University, assassination of army officer in Islamabad 10/22, 10/23 Attock, Mohmand, Peshawar attacks), although recent operations may have drained suicide bomber / attacker pool and attacks may therefore not continue at current pace and scale, given that it will take weeks to regenerate suicide bombers after the current force is depleted.

IDPs could be a long-term problem if the Pakistanis adopt a counterinsurgency strategy

At least 200,000 IDPs currently.

Many have vacation homes in the NWFP to the east of Waziristan.

Some IDPs unable to flee conflict zone, caught between government and TTP forces

Government has set up IDP registration centers, which have been overloaded.

Government has also sent conflicting messages on whether it is inflicting “collective punishment” (which is an accepted practice in the region) on the Mehsud tribe.