Andrew Malcolm at Investors Business Daily has an interesting column on whether those who are telling pollsters they intend to vote for the president really are going to do so. The vast majority of them surely will, of course. But politics, like baseball, is a game of inches. If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Obama go into the voting booth and vote for Romney instead, thats a four-percent shift, turning a comfortable 52-48 win into a 48-52 loss. If they simply stay home, that turns 52-48 into 50-50.

There are numerous signs the Obama campaign is very, very worried. His fundraising has not been the money machine it was in 2008, despite Obamas burning out the engines of Air Force One going, hat in hand, from one group of fat cats to another. He is running through the money he does raise at a furious pace, mostly running negative ads in toss-up states. He is trying to shore up his base rather than reaching out to the center as he would if his base were secure. That doesnt bear much resemblance to Ronald Reagans Its Morning in America campaign of 1984, does it? There are even those who say Wall Streets recent climb, despite very gloomy economic news, is due to a growing conviction on the Street that Obama is toast.

And yet pollsters all have the race tight as a tick, as Karl Rove terms it. Whats going on?

I think what I call the Dinkins effect is in operation. David Dinkins was the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York in 1989, having defeated three-term incumbent Ed Koch in the primary. His Republican opponent was Rudy Giuliani. The polls all showed Dinkins well ahead, but he won the race only narrowly...

IIRC, it's also been called the Bradley Effect and the Wilder Effect from the former Mayor Tom Bradley of Los Angeles and former Governor Doug Wilder of Virginia, respectively. It's not a new phenomenon. The rats can thank themselves for constantly playing the race card at every opportunity.

The Dinkins race was known for another issue; since his last race they no longer project winners earlier on election day because of the reaction as the day went on that he might win. Voters jammed the polls later in the day, and his loss was attributed to the projections throughout the day motivating his opposition.

He really was a horrible mayor; the city lost a large number of whites (especially Jews) during his tenure. I don’t think the city has ever recovered.

I think Obama should worry more about the “Oreo Effect” where in the latest polls over 90% of black folk still say they are going to vote for Obama...

...SAY they are going to vote for Obama—being black on the outside but going for the “white inside” the voting booth.

I work and know many black folks and they ain't all controlled by racial politics I can tell you...only they have to keep their true opinions about Obama—like OJ’s guilt—to themselves or suffer ostracism in the black community. Obama is counting on that over 90% and even a 5% drop could sink him.

... President Obama... Hes arrogant, often mean-spirited, sometimes downright nasty. He avoids taking responsibility for failure but takes all the credit for success. He doesnt have much of a sense of humor that I can see.

I like Gordon but his grasp of numbers here is shaky. If 2% of voters say they are voting for candidate A but vote for candidate B, it would change a 52-48 victory for Candidate A to a 50-50 tie. It won’t make an eight point swing (52-48 to 48-52).

There are reasons to hope this year, but the fantasy of a “Bradley Effect” isn`t one of them. Remember in 2008, right here on FR, when so many were confident the factoring in of the “Bradley Effect” would deliver a win for McCain?

I like Gordon but his grasp of numbers here is shaky. If 2% of voters say they are voting for candidate A but vote for candidate B, it would change a 52-48 victory for Candidate A to a 50-50 tie. It wont make an eight point swing (52-48 to 48-52).

It's even worse than that. His statement was "If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Obama . . ." which means one percent of voters, or a shift from 52-48 to 51-49.

12
posted on 08/01/2012 3:53:51 AM PDT
by Pollster1
(Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)

but, to wrap up his piece he says the polls in the important swing states are very old and meaningless but since they are the only polls available they were used. In some states there are no polls and they are counted as leaning. The results re thereby skewed in Obama’s favor.

I see his pieces on Fox and am convinced he is sandbagging Obama and will pull the rug from under him eventually

He really was a horrible mayor; the city lost a large number of whites (especially Jews) during his tenure. I dont think the city has ever recovered.

Dinkins behavior during the Crown Heights Riots, where he allowed rioters to rampage through an Orthodox Jewish section of Brooklyn for three days, was reprehensible. He convinced white voters that a black mayor would never protect them from black crime.

New Yorkers realized that having a black democrat mayor for another term would likely irrevocably send NYC into the same decline that Detroit experienced.

19
posted on 08/01/2012 4:34:46 AM PDT
by PapaBear3625
(If I can't be persuasive, I at least hope to be fun.)

Yep, right up until election day '08 there was no shortage of Freepers who claimed the polls were full of it and that the Bradley effect (and the "PUMAS" - remember that extinct species?) were going to give the election to the admiral's widdle kid.

If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Obama go into the voting booth and vote for Romney instead, thats a four-percent shift, turning a comfortable 52-48 win into a 48-52 loss. If they simply stay home, that turns 52-48 into 50-50.

Likewise...

If only two percent of those saying they will vote for Romney go into the voting booth and vote for Obama instead, thats a four-percent shift, turning a comfortable 52-48 win into a 48-52 loss. If they simply stay home, that turns 52-48 into 50-50.

One MUST remember that there are VAST amounts of Obama voters, who will NOT vote for him again, that are NOT being 'reported' by the MSM.

“New Yorkers realized that having a black democrat mayor for another term would likely irrevocably send NYC into the same decline that Detroit experienced.”

I remember the riots well; they killed the fellow from Australia in a wild pack attack. The city is still declining, but they’re really pricing the multi-generational dependents out now. The gentrification, accompanied by the Hispanic invasion, would indicate that Dinkins may be the last black mayor of NYC.

Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.