Barring any major supply disruption, Allman also said crude will have a hard time pushing higher than $75 per barrel.

Crude should see some weakness this summer due to a number of domestic and international factors, the analyst wrote in a Tuesday research report. In the U.S., fears of local ethanol shortages ahead of the May 5 government-mandated phase-out of MTBE (methyl tertiary-butyl ether) for cleaner-burning fuel should be eased as industry capacity meets most of the summer demand.

President Bushs plans to ease environmental rules, announced Tuesday, should also help to ease ethanol distribution issues, according to news reports.

Most of the major refineries knocked offline after last summers hurricanes should also resume normal production, Allman said.

Farther from home, developments in Iran, Nigeria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia could potentially boost crude production through the summer.

Tehran has said it is returning to a deal it struck with Russia in February to enrich uranium in a joint venture using facilities in Russia, allaying fears of military action against Irans nuclear facilities.

In Nigeria, officials are ready to resume 120,000 barrels a day of production within a week after Niger Delta rebels attacked oil installations there and knocked production offline. Companies operating in the Delta like Shell Oil are less optimistic, however, and remain jittery about resuming their operations.

Meanwhile, OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Iraq have both pledged increased production. Riyadh announced its Haradh project in the Ghawar oil field is now operational and has added 300,000 barrels per day to its production capacity, while Iraqi production is also on the rise with plans to add an additional 400,000 barrels per day by the end of 2006.

Taken together, increased production in Iran, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq could potentially increase fourth-quarter OPEC spare capacity to 3.0 million barrels per day from 2.5 million barrels. OPEC president and Nigerian oil minister Edmund Daukoru continues to stress there is a surplus production of crude, including light sweet crude, with no buyers in the open market.