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Trump and North Korea: A Looming Foreign Policy Crisis

People in Pyongyang watch a public broadcast about the launch of a ballistic missile in mid-February.Credit Kim Won-Jin/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

North Korea’s test of a ballistic missile on Sunday was followed by strong, but hollow, condemnations by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, President Donald Trump and the United Nations Security Council. Richard Haass, the President of the Council on Foreign Relations, had it right when he said the U.N condemnation was the diplomatic equivalent of a “nothing burger.”

I have been working on North Korea issues for over 20 years, first as a U.S. State Department official, then in the Washington think-tank community and now in academia. As I have written before, the North Koreans are serious about building a nuclear deterrent and we are not serious about stopping them. Indeed, at a meeting I attended with North Korean officials in 2013, one wondered out loud why the United States kept saying it would not allow the North to acquire nuclear weapons but then did nothing to stop it. He figured Washington actually wanted Pyongyang to have nuclear weapons so it could tighten its alliances with South Korea and Japan.

The reality of the past eight years is that North Korea has methodically plotted and implemented a strategy of building missiles and warheads using the political shield of China, a country unwilling to impose crippling sanctions sought by the United States. The United States, on the other hand, was either too busy paying attention to other international problems or too misinformed to realize that China was not going to carry Washington’s water. As a result, the North Korean W.M.D. cancer was essentially left to metastasize.

We have now reached another critical moment. What most observers do not realize is that North Korea has been surprisingly quiet for the past four months: no tests or other provocations. In November, just after President Trump was elected, former U.S. government officials and I met with North Korean officials in a small hotel in Geneva to discuss the future of U.S.-DPRK relations. Our clear impression was that Pyongyang was going to be patient with the newly elected President – which we believed meant no provocations. But they were not going to be patient forever.

That was clear not only from Sunday’s launch but also from Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s speech announcing the North was in the final stage of preparing to test an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States. Sunday’s launch of a new but short-range ballistic missile able only to reach South Korea and Japan may have been the least provocative provocation that North Koreans could devise.

The U.S.-South Korean military exercise (named “Key Resolve”) to be held at the end of this month will be an important moment. While Pyongyang has demanded that the United States and South Korea cancel these joint exercises, in reality the government might be willing to continue restraint if the most objectionable activities — like the public messaging that the purpose of the exercise is to kill North Korean leadership before it can push the nuclear button — were dropped.

Is a Trump/North Korea deal even possible? It is unlikely but conceivable. A first step would be to stop the impending train wreck by modifying — not canceling — the upcoming U.S.-South Korean exercise. Second, the Trump administration should reestablish official contact with Pyongyang and send the message that we would like to talk. If talks start, the initial objective would be to negotiate a freeze on Pyongyang’s threatening programs as part of a long-term strategy to build a nuclear-free Korean peninsula.

There will be a price to pay, of course. In the near-term, it may require lifting sanctions, eventually replacing the temporary armistice ending the Korean War with a permanent peace treaty, signifying the end of enmity and of what the North Koreans call Washington’s “hostile policy.”

Even in the best of circumstances, it would be hard for Washington to get its act together quickly. But the Trump administration was warned ahead of time about North Korea by the outgoing administration. Whether it is picking up on North Korea’s signals or ignoring them is unclear. Either way, we may be on the cusp of the Trump administration’s first major foreign policy crisis, with last Sunday’s missile test only the first in a series of missile and nuclear weapons tests. Unless Washington quickly formulates a strategy for dealing with Pyongyang — that includes not only sanctions and protecting our allies but diplomatic outreach to the North — it is going to be a rough ride.

Joel S.Wit is a Senior Fellow at the US-Korea Institute, Johns Hopkins SAIS and founder of 38North.

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This blog expands on Nicholas Kristof’s twice-weekly columns, sharing thoughts that shape the writing but don’t always make it into the 800-word text. It’s also the place where readers make their voices heard.