Player Power Rankings: Final push

With essentially two and a half weeks remaining in the season, there are two questions pertinent to the Thunder: 1) Will they be healthy for the postseason and 2) can they still make a push for the No. 1 seed?

The health part is being managed, as the Thunder would say, with Russell Westbrook still on track to sit back-to-backs while Thabo Sefolosha and Kendrick Perkins are close to returning. The No. 1 seed part is out of their hands. Despite the Thunder already having the tiebreaker, the Spurs are three up on OKC in the loss column.

HOWEVAH, if there’s a time to make things interesting, it’s this week. The Spurs play the Pacers tonight and the Warriors on Wednesday. Let’s shoot for the moon and say they lost both of those games. That would make Thursday’s game in Oklahoma City for the top seed again. It’s obviously not a probable scenario, but when a team has won 17 straight games it means two things: 1) They’re playing really awesome basketball and 2) they’re due to lose at any time. And a lot of times, when a team comes off a streak, they lose two or three.

So by Thursday, the showdown between the Thunder and Spurs could carry a hefty amount of importance. Unless the Spurs are rolling in having won 19 straight, which seems very possible because damn, those Spurs are good.

Rankings:

1. Kevin Durant

I found this incredibly surprising: KD in the clutch (defined as the final five minutes margin within five) this season: 140 points (third in the league) but on 37.3 percent shooting. Damian Lillard is No. 1 with 144 points on 47.2 percent shooting and LeBron is No. 2 with 141 points on 47.6 percent shooting.

Obviously, that’s not to indicate Durant hasn’t been clutch, because “clutch time” stats can be pretty misleading. Durant firing up shots from 28 feet trying to get back in the game down five with 20 seconds left hurts those numbers. But in games where the Thunder are down three, two or tied with a minute or less left, Durant has 21 points on 7-14 shooting, including 4-5 from 3.

The lesson: The Reaper rises in the final minute of games.

2. Russell Westbrook

Maybe the most influential factor in the Thunder’s Western seeding could be Westbrook’s back-to-back availability. The Thunder have three left, one coming this week against the Spurs and Rockets. How the Thunder approach this could give you a glimpse into their mindset surrounding the top seed. If Westbrook sits against the Spurs, they may not care much. But I’m guessing they play Westbrook against San Antonio and sit him against the Rockets, who are likely to be without Dwight Howard and therefore, more beatable, despite it being on the road.

The other two back-to-backs: at the Kings, at the Clippers, and at the Pacers and at the Pelicans. Should pretty clear which one the Thunder will be planning to sit him for in those.

3. Serge Ibaka

First thing: Why isn’t Ibaka getting more attention as a possible DPOY candidate? His blocks are down, but his defense is up. Per SportVU, he’s No. 2 in the league in field goal percentage at the rim (among players that see at least five attempts), holding opponents to just 43.7 percent. Only Roy Hibbert is better.

Second thing: This is a tired, worn out discussion point, but as I watched the Thunder carve the Jazz apart on Sunday, I couldn’t help but think about how Ibaka may actually prove to be a more important offensive player than James Harden. The general feeling all along has been about Ibaka’s value on the defensive end, but really, what he provides offensively gives the Thunder a more natural, progressive scheme.

Having Ibaka as a pressure release valve in pick-and-pop, or just an option to flash at the free throw line or top of the key gives Durant and Westbrook both someone to play with. Opposing defenses face layered threats, either from a Durant-Westbrook screen-and-roll, or Ibaka with one of them. That kind of spacing gives OKC an extremely good offensive flow most of the time. By no means is there a case to be made that Ibaka is a better offensive player than Harden, but having three primary ball-handlers would’ve made the Thunder such an iso heavy team. This is an oversimplified example, but in 2012, the Thunder were dead last in the entire league in total assists with 1,124. This season, they’re 13th, already with 1,601 assists. (Obvious note: 2012 only had 66 games, but still, this year’s team has played 73 games.)

I just wonder what the Thunder’s offense would currently look like had the Thunder only been able to keep Harden and traded Ibaka instead. Would it just be a your-turn-my-turn kind of isolation offense, or would Scott Brooks have developed some kind of hybrid offensive system based around motion-based principles?

I’m rambling here, but I’ve always thought that removing Harden enabled both Durant and Westbrook, but specifically Durant, to become a more integrated creator. The connection between Durant and Ibaka that developed during Westbrook’s time out could be vital to the Thunder’s halfcourt offense going forward. Problems in the past has been about the stagnation of OKC’s offense, but with how effective and reliable Ibaka is, there’s always a play to be ran. It’s not an offensive system, but it’s at least an excellent Plan B almost every time down the floor.

4. Caron Butler

I still don’t love Butler as a spot-up shooter, but he’s certainly improving in his role game-by-game. Last seven games, he’s 18-40 from 3 (45 percent). In fact, from 3 with the Thunder, he’s 29-73 from 3 (39.7 percent), but just 17-52 (32.6 percent) from 2. It’s pretty obvious what his role is and at nearly 40 percent from 3, that’s about what you can ask for.

One big question I have: What happens when Thabo comes back? Butler’s getting between 25-30 minutes a game right now and a lot of that is because Andre Roberson rarely plays more than 20. But Thabo is a player that obviously is worthy of more minutes, so is there a split there, or does Brooks nudge someone else down in the rotation (Derek Fisher?) or does he favor one over the other depending on situation?

5. Jeremy Lamb

An eventful week for Lamb. He went 1-8 for two points against the Nuggets, then picked up his first DNP of the season, but responded by playing really well against the Kings and then added another solid performance against the Jazz. It seems pretty obvious that Lamb is going to be the 11th or maybe even 12th man come playoff time, but if this week was any indication, if called upon, he might still be ready to contribute.

6. Nick Collison

Collison flirted briefly with a double-double against the Jazz (eight points, seven rebounds) which led me to actually look up when his last one was. Dec. 29, 2012, it was, with 12 points and 10 rebounds against the Rockets.

7. Steven Adams

It’s amazing to me that Adams is the only Thunder player to have appeared in every single game this season. If you would’ve told me that in August, well, I would’ve said, “That seems unlikely but let’s see how it plays out.” I’m sometimes a very reasonable person.

8. Derek Fisher

Did you know: Derek Fisher has made a 3 in 23 of the last 25 games. That seems like… something. Especially considering he had a stretch of missing 24 straight shots last season.

9. Reggie Jackson

Jackson only played in two games last week, but he was really good in those two games. Against the Mavs, 11 points and eight assists. And against the Nuggets, 16 points and 11 assists. Since March 13 against the Lakers (seven games) Jackson hasn’t had fewer than three assists in a game, and is averaging 5.7 a game. He talked about getting back into a rhythm and playing with more instinct. He’s got that. Hopefully once he returns — likely Thursday against the Spurs — he drops right back into that flow.

10. Andre Roberson

Everyone on the team calls him Dre. I’m not feeling that so much. Because Andre is a pretty cool name.

Something else: Is Roberson the least noticeable starter on a contender currently? The guy is a rookie and he’s starting for the Thunder, one of the three or four most visible teams in the league. And barely anyone even notices him. It seems like it should be rather notable that a rookie is routinely in the starting lineup for a contender. I think everyone is just assuming he’s Thabo.

11. Hasheem Thabeet

One of my underrated favorite things about Thabeet: Even in games he plays — and sometimes plays pretty well! — he’s almost always the first guy out of the locker room and never once hesitates to see if the media wants to talk to him. He just cruises by everyone telling basically everyone he walks by to have a good night.

12. Perry Jones III

Since he lost the starting job (seven games), Jones has played a total of 21 minutes.

13. Reggie Williams

Thing I learned last week: Williams is a big soccer fan, and a really fun guy to talk to.

Well I guess the rest of the Western Conference should just stay home... The Spurs are going to the finals... This long win streak they've beat so many good teams that everyone should just stay home....

@f5alcon@sammasaaron Yeah. I still think the first few seasons of HIMYM have some of the best sit-com comedy ever. But after all the fan service this season, the finale was like a kick in the balls. Feel like it should've aired today the way they trolled the fans.

@sammasaaron@f5alcon yeah the first few seasons were great, but it pulled a that 70s show, but maybe not quite as bad of a dropoff. I have friend's at 2 in my top sitcoms list, HIMYM at 5 and that 70s show at 6, both of which had a chance to be number 1 for the first 4 or 5 seasons.

@anonymous12345@OKC_Gooner 86 or 85 runs in five overs is a true masterclass of how to close a innings, especially the way we started with early wickets falling. West Indies put in a good effort to close.

Is it crazy to think of Russ as a top 4 player? With the recent article about the value of steals, I was digging around, and ASPM weights similarly to that article. ASPM also ranks Russ 4th. Obviously it's not perfect (has CP3 above KD and Lebron) but I still think Russ, if he stays healthy, could be around there and is severely underrated by the national media.

@Lost Ones@d21 @L0rv Russ had an incredible season last year when he was still in honey badger mode. Next season, when healthy and playing next to an MVP with hopefully a championship belt, I think we will see Russ emerge as an MVP candidate also. He will be a nightly triple double threat.

This year, he is definitely not top 5. Griffin, LMA, Love, CP3, Noah and Harden have all had better seasons than he has.

@Turfright@Lost Ones@d21 @L0rv Pump the brakes. I'm talking impact when he's playing, not over the year. He's been better than Harden, Noah, and LMA at least. And when you start thinking about which stats are empty or not, he has an argument over Love and Griffin. Let's see what he does next year, but I'm going to conduct the "Russ is a top 5 player" train.

@Lost Ones@d21 @L0rv@Turfright yeah but he is talking about this season and in term of impact he hasn't been better than Harden or Noah. I'm not sure that Russ is that much better than Harden when healthy tho, Harden is bad on defense but offensively is an efficient monster while Russ is a decent at best defender and a great offensive player

Basically the premise is that if you take away a player, what will the team be without him, statistically? If you take away 10 ppg, the rest of the team tends to fill that gap pretty easily. Rebounds work this way too. That's why a lot of the stats for the guys you mentioned are pretty empty, especially those rebound-heavy guys.

Other stats don't work this way. If you take away a guy who steals the ball a lot, the rest of the team doesn't just fill the void. That's a skill that's hard to replace. Blocks are similar to steals.

We like to talk about how Russ gambles for steals a lot, but with the articles I'm looking at, it's actually not that much of a gamble. Just the pressure Russ exerts helps us win games a lot - and the predictive power of that lies in his steals. An interesting case can be framed there.