The Weekly Brief (08 February 2016)

Widespread doubt over the authenticity of Chinese growth numbers has caused uncertainty around just how much Chinese economic growth is slowing.

Future supply changes, driven by international negotiations and breakeven costs of extraction, will be difficult to predict in the short term. But what we do know is that global demand for oil has been growing over the past 5 years. The continued growth of oil demand indicates a still healthy global economy. In the past falls in corporate revenues have coincided with falls in demand for oil. This time around, excess supply drove oil prices lower, which, along with the strong US dollar, hit S&P 500 revenues - but we should soon be due a rebound in corporate revenues as consumers and businesses start spending the windfall.

Li Keqiang Index versus M1 growth

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