Revi wrote:Peak oil is dead, but the troll show goes on and on and on and on. I used to like this site.

Hey, some of us are right with you to ban the etp sock puppets, or at least restrict their nonsense to a dedicated thread, but this place is pretty non group think when it comes to peak oil nowadays, so they will probably keep going. Use the ignore button perhaps? Although I philosophically disagree with it, but some seem to find comfort in erasing from their consciousness any idea they don't already agree with.

I wasn't talking about the etp people. At least they are talking about oil.

Only tangentially. As they freely admit, they use SOME oil production information (having excluded the info they don't like), exclude the main bulk of USGS estimates (and even then use only the old stuff) because the last thing they need is MORE oil (hence the exclusions rather than full accounting), make up an equation that they admit is just a best fit (again to SOME of the information) and has no predictive ability, and kick out some random outputs. And suckers fall for it, plus it may have generated them a little coin, because of said suckers.

Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

Click to download the audio (MP3 format) As these words go to publication, millions are expected to take to the streets in centres across the United States, Canada and around the world, all in demonstrations timed with the anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration. The thrust of the Womens’ March on Washington and its various affiliates is getting more women involved in electoral politics and ratcheting up the voter-turn-out as the mid-term Congressional elections approach. Healing social divides, most notably around gender, sexual orientation, race, and immigration seem to be the defining issues motivating citizens to action. Interestingly, there seems to be less attention paid to urgent human security concerns related to military interventions, surveillance culture, and economic upheaval. By and large, elected representatives are prisoners to other forces entrenched in society. In particular, the various corporate lobbies, or ‘special interests’ arguably have much more

II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.

Isn't that already the situation? The only sort of protests that make an impact these days are online social shaming campaigns like #MeToo. The frivolity of #MeToo (in proportion to its huge mindshare on the public stage) in its own way can be construed as a sign that peak oil is dead (or at least lying in wait) since on the order of Maslow's Hierarchy of needs, a bad date is far less of an issue than the prospect of losing the necessities oil provides.

Peak oil will be alive again when we see this sort of thing crop up again.

“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"--Onlooker, 1/1/2018

My view is that "peak oil" is not dead just postponed by the advent of fracking shale beds. As long as expanded fracking can keep pace with the decline of legacy fields it will be BAU. Eventually we will get to a point when throwing on extra drill rigs into anywhere that is left to drill will not replace the decline in both the legacy fields and those already fully fracked out shale beds with their rapid decline rates and then Peak oil will rise like a Phoenix.

vt - And as predictable as the next sun rise: here comes the Rockman and the POD. Same song...new verse. Why I will always prefer the POD (Peak Oil Dynamic) to "PO". While it's difficult for some to see $30/bbl in PO it's clearly a part of the dynamic we've experienced. No different the $146/bbl oil. Pick any feedback loop and it's much easier to fit it into the POD then PO.

IOW high/low oil prices, high/low rig counts, high/low global oil production rates, etc: all part of the path we're HEADING towards PO. And the extremes of those various components of the POD are what hit the headlines. And the actual date of global PO? It probably won't even be confirmed until may decades after it is reached. And on that date we might have had high or low oil prices, high or low rig count, economic stability or recession, etc.

PO "dead"? Who cares? The POD is very much alive and affecting (for the good or the bad) every person on the planet every day.

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - And as predictable as the next sun rise: here comes the Rockman and the POD. Same song...new verse. Why I will always prefer the POD (Peak Oil Dynamic) to "PO". While it's difficult for some to see $30/bbl in PO it's clearly a part of the dynamic we've experienced. No different the $146/bbl oil. Pick any feedback loop and it's much easier to fit it into the POD then PO.

IOW high/low oil prices, high/low rig counts, high/low global oil production rates, etc: all part of the path we're HEADING towards PO. And the extremes of those various components of the POD are what hit the headlines. And the actual date of global PO? It probably won't even be confirmed until may decades after it is reached. And on that date we might have had high or low oil prices, high or low rig count, economic stability or recession, etc.

PO "dead"? Who cares? The POD is very much alive and affecting (for the good or the bad) every person on the planet every day.

I can't imagine a real peak oil, where high prices fail to increase supply and a decline in supply persists in site of industry efforts to increase the supply will not forever change the economies of the world. We have not got there yet but that does not mean we will not get there at an unknown time in the future and then the real turmoil begins. Everything before that is BAU and everything after that is uncharted territory where all the old rules no longer apply.

vt - "I can't imagine a real peak oil, where high prices fail to increase supply and a decline in supply persists...". I take it you expect oil prices will be high when we reach that magical date of global PO. I see no justification for that assumption. In fact we may have just reached GPO during the same time oil prices crashed. That dynamic thingy again: low oil prices force producers to max production while those same low oil prices inhibit the development of new production. But the period of high oil prices produces increased production that can carry over into the low oil price period. That combined with producers try to max revenue results in what may eventually prove to be GPO: lower oil prices during the period of record breaking oil production rates. And during high oil price periods smart producers deliver less the max production to preserve reserves while still generating acceptable revenue.

Essentially that same confusing dynamic we've seem many times: the time lag factor.

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - " I take it you expect oil prices will be high when we reach that magical date of global PO.

If not on that date then shortly thereafter. And once peak oil truly sets in they will stay high and trend ever higher to balance demand to the steadily decreasing supply. I'm talking about when all the mega fields have peaked and no producer has any excess or reserve capacity to flood the market in response to higher prices. Peak only comes when the entire worldwide industry can not increase production regardless of the price and that won't come until the Saudi, Iranian and Russian reserves have been fully developed and pumped to decline.

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - And as predictable as the next sun rise: here comes the Rockman and the POD. Same song...new verse. Why I will always prefer the POD (Peak Oil Dynamic) to "PO". While it's difficult for some to see $30/bbl in PO it's clearly a part of the dynamic we've experienced. No different the $146/bbl oil. Pick any feedback loop and it's much easier to fit it into the POD then PO.

IOW high/low oil prices, high/low rig counts, high/low global oil production rates, etc: all part of the path we're HEADING towards PO. And the extremes of those various components of the POD are what hit the headlines. And the actual date of global PO? It probably won't even be confirmed until may decades after it is reached. And on that date we might have had high or low oil prices, high or low rig count, economic stability or recession, etc.

PO "dead"? Who cares? The POD is very much alive and affecting (for the good or the bad) every person on the planet every day.

It's not an issue of PO vs. POD but the latter based on the former.

Also, that constant reference to oneself in the third person reminds me of this wrestler. LOL.

vt - "If not on that date then shortly thereafter". And there's the rub, eh? Define "shortly": 2 months...2 years...4 years? Remember some think global oil production peaked in 2016. Maybe...maybe not. It would take decades of lower production to develop much confidence that it did. But lets assume it has. After all it might actually have peaked. And what did we see oil prices do just before GPO: they crashed. And a year plus after: still lower then they had been a few years ago.

Again depending on how you define "shortly" I would expect prices to be lower for several years around GPO. High oil prices hurt economies and oil prices fall. Low oil prices = less drilling = less oil production. Just as we saw in 1979 when global oil production peaked. And high prices reduced demand and led to less drilling. Then it took 10 years for global oil production to reach the previous peak rate. Even more important: it took almost 30 years for oil prices to recover to the pre-1979 level.

So does that mean "shortly" could be 10 years? Or 30 years? Or even longer? A complex dynamic with feedback loops and lag times that could stretch out for decades. Which explains why I consider the actual date of GPO to be RELATIVELY unimportant.

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - "If not on that date then shortly thereafter". And there's the rub, eh? Define "shortly": 2 months...2 years...4 years? Remember some think global oil production peaked in 2016. Maybe...maybe not. It would take decades of lower production to develop much confidence that it did. But lets assume it has. After all it might actually have peaked. And what did we see oil prices do just before GPO: they crashed. And a year plus after: still lower then they had been a few years ago.

Again depending on how you define "shortly" I would expect prices to be lower for several years around GPO. High oil prices hurt economies and oil prices fall. Low oil prices = less drilling = less oil production. Just as we saw in 1979 when global oil production peaked. And high prices reduced demand and led to less drilling. Then it took 10 years for global oil production to reach the previous peak rate. Even more important: it took almost 30 years for oil prices to recover to the pre-1979 level.

So does that mean "shortly" could be 10 years? Or 30 years? Or even longer? A complex dynamic with feedback loops and lag times that could stretch out for decades. Which explains why I consider the actual date of GPO to be RELATIVELY unimportant.

Shortly means the time it takes for a shortfall in supply to eat up any glut then present and then have the resulting higher prices send out drill rigs, both land based and deep water, to drill the only remaining likely spots and have them come up dry or at least not wet enough to fill the demand gap. Given the time it takes to plan, build and execute a deep water project it certainly could take a few years. The interesting point will be when a majority of the public becomes convinced that oil has peaked. Might not have much to do with the reality of what remains in the ground but will be enough to change governments and start wars.

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - "If not on that date then shortly thereafter". And there's the rub, eh? Define "shortly": 2 months...2 years...4 years? Remember some think global oil production peaked in 2016. Maybe...maybe not. It would take decades of lower production to develop much confidence that it did. But lets assume it has. After all it might actually have peaked. And what did we see oil prices do just before GPO: they crashed. And a year plus after: still lower then they had been a few years ago.

Again depending on how you define "shortly" I would expect prices to be lower for several years around GPO. High oil prices hurt economies and oil prices fall. Low oil prices = less drilling = less oil production. Just as we saw in 1979 when global oil production peaked. And high prices reduced demand and led to less drilling. Then it took 10 years for global oil production to reach the previous peak rate. Even more important: it took almost 30 years for oil prices to recover to the pre-1979 level.

So does that mean "shortly" could be 10 years? Or 30 years? Or even longer? A complex dynamic with feedback loops and lag times that could stretch out for decades. Which explains why I consider the actual date of GPO to be RELATIVELY unimportant.

Shortly means the time it takes for a shortfall in supply to eat up any glut then present and then have the resulting higher prices send out drill rigs, both land based and deep water, to drill the only remaining likely spots and have them come up dry or at least not wet enough to fill the demand gap. Given the time it takes to plan, build and execute a deep water project it certainly could take a few years. The interesting point will be when a majority of the public becomes convinced that oil has peaked. Might not have much to do with the reality of what remains in the ground but will be enough to change governments and start wars.

I remember a news clip from some 15 years ago. Fireworks inside a nightclub ignighted the interior. The video the ( ) news filmagrapher took showed people partially out of the exit door from the bottom all the way to the top but so plugged nobody could move or escape. Makes me think of the stock market today. When panic sets in from who knows what, most won't make it out.

Our taste change, technologies evolve, live goes on and whether we like it or not, the world changes every day. To put it bluntly, change is inevitable. Although it’s an inevitable reality of our world, it doesn’t mean that we’re on the verge of it. On January 24, 2018, British Petroleum (BP) held its annual Energy Outlook forum. At this discussion, BP tells its investors and other interested parties its short and long term predictions for the petroleum industry. Far from the bearish outlook on the petroleum market held by some observers, British Petroleum was considerably bullish in its outlook. In their report, the company concluded that oil demand will continue growing into the 2050’s due to projected growth in the plastic goods market. Similar to BP’s position, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced in November 2017 that, despite a