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This week Forbes published its annual list of NBA team values, and revealed that the average club was worth an all-time high $1.25 billion (all figure in U.S. dollars). That figure represents a 14 per cent increase over last year.

By those measures, the Raptors are a little below average. Their $980-million valuation is 14th in the 30-team league, and seven per cent above last year’s number.

Do these figures mean the NBA’s rising tide of revenue and franchise value is leaving Toronto’s team behind?

Hardly. Experts say these annual franchise values are snapshots in time, with this year’s taken at a moment when the weak Canadian dollar squeezes any business that pays expenses in U.S. dollars. They point out that even a modest rebound in the exchange rate would make the Raptors a billion-dollar franchise.

The NBA’s new media rights deal will pay it $2.6 billion annually starting next season, and the income that will filter back to its franchises through revenue sharing is one more reason sports industry insiders think the Raptors’ value is set to swell.

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“There’s incredible synergies from (MLSE) owning the broadcasting channels . . . these really are strengths that benefit the Raptors,” says Drew Dorweiler, managing partner of the Montreal-based valuation firm Dartmouth Partners. “There’s a lot more upside than downside . . . If the dollar goes back up to 80 or 90 cents, we’re going to see a real increase in value.”

The Forbes study pegs the Raptors’ revenue at $163 million and its profit at $23.5 million, and attributes nearly a third of the team’s value — $307 million — to a local market that has grown to embrace the NBA.

One variable that could boost all those numbers, says sports economist Norm O’Reilly, is sustained on-court success.

Winning isn’t always the main driver behind a franchise’s value. The Leafs, who have reached the Stanley Cup playoffs once since 2004, topped Forbes’ NHL valuations for 10 years before being displaced by the New York Rangers two months ago. Meanwhile, the Knicks ($3 billion) and Lakers ($2.7 billion) outrank the rest of the NBA even though they had combined for 31 wins and 57 losses through Thursday.

But winning helps build the fan loyalty and brand equity that grow franchise value, O’Reilly says. He points out that the San Antonio Spurs play in a smaller, less lucrative market than the Raptors but have ridden consistent success to a $1.15 billion franchise value.

“Usually I would say the opposite, that winning is just a component,” says O’Reilly, program chair of Ohio University’s department of sports administration. “But when you’re a contender, the world jumps on the bandwagon.”

Similarly, next month’s all-star game might not provide a quick boost to the Raptors’ franchise value, but the club is cognizant of the event’s brand-building value.

“We see that fan passion for NBA basketball continues to surge, especially here in Toronto, where the Raptors have come of age,” said MLSE chief commercial officer Dave Hopkinson in an email to the Star. “The NBA looks at the Raptors and our Canadian fans with a lot of pride.”

Still, the exchange rate remains a stubborn obstacle for a club that pays its players in U.S. dollars while taking in much of its ticket and sponsorship revenue in Canadian currency.

While MLSE buys U.S. dollars well in advance as a hedge against exchange rate fluctuations, Dorweiler and O’Reilly point out that the Raptors’ cut of the league’s media rights windfall will help mitigate the effects of the weak loonie.

Ownership structure helps, too. With deep-pocketed telecoms Bell and Rogers teaming up to run the Raptors as part of a suite of assets, MLSE can spread risk and protect value in ways single-entity ownership wouldn’t, O’Reilly says.

“It provides a lot of buffering on the expenses side,” he says.

Four years ago Rogers and Bell combined to pay $1.32 billion for a 75 per cent stake in MLSE, a transaction that would put the company’s overall value at roughly $1.76 billion Canadian.

But if Forbes’ figures are correct, the Leafs and Raptors are now worth $2.13 billion combined.

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