Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

No. True fans do. They expect every QB prospect to be Andrew Luck. Otherwise, he's not worth taking a risk on. Better to have a safe investment, in case, God forbid, the QB busts and you end up 2-14 or something.

Since almost every Genofan on this board seems fascinated by his "chocolate cock" more than anything else, I assume they dream of him appearing in a Playgirl centerfold layout in his first year.

I can't tell if they have any football expectations of him or not.

oh sheesh, there are like 2 dudes on here that spew that choch peen stuff, but the majority of Geno ballwashers (like myself) can speak rationally and appropriately about our wants for Geno (or any Highly rated QB the chiefs have a chance to draft).

and it's more about the Importance of the position and the ignorance the chiefs have shown towards it since Blacklegde busted. They have been giant pussies ever since, and giant pussies only win dicks... not super bowls.

If Geno IS going to succeed in the NFL, can you think of a better location/environment than KC?

-Quality QB coaches
-Friendly system
-Jamaal Charles
-Dwayne Bowe
-A franchise LT (currently)
-Ability to take his time... doesn't have to rush into starting for the team yet

I can not. Tell me this isn't the PERFECT time to take a guy like Geno who has the arm, athleticism, and the will to get it done.

What that means for the expectations is nothing. It's possible it doesn't work out, but I'll be ****ed if we ever get another opportunity like this in the NEXT 30 years to try and make the home-grown QB thing work.

I expect Geno Smith (or any QB) to help win a respectable amount of games in year 1.
Show great improvement with the team in year 2.
Playoff win by year 3.
Deeper Playoff run in year 4.
Super Bowl in year 5.

If this doesn't look even close to happening, then you draft the next best QB prospect and try again until you get it right.

I bet it has more to do with the fact that he had three great years in college, a great combine, a great pro day, and appears to be a really great human being as well. Who wouldn't want someone like that to be their franchise QB?