The Islamic Republic's clout in the region, confirmed by the Iraq Study Group, could cost the United States.

PARIS  The report issued last week by the blue-ribbon Iraq Study Group provides fresh proof of Iran's strengthened hand in the Middle East since the U.S.-led invasion: It mentions the Islamic Republic more than 50 times and makes clear that the U.S. will have to seek Iran's help for any resolution.

"The report told the Iranians, You are mighty now in the region and in Iraq. The Iranians feel now they are untouchable," said Mustafa Alani, director of security and terrorism studies at the Gulf Research Center, an independent think tank in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

The Bush administration no longer has much leverage to stop Iran from pursuing uranium enrichment, diplomats and analysts said. And the price of cooperation, Alani said, will be very high.

"They are looking for a grand bargain that includes the nuclear issue, recognition of their influence and position in Iraq, and their position in the balance of power in the region," he said.

Far from spreading democracy through the region, the Iraq war has strengthened a theocracy in which unelected religious figures make many of the crucial decisions.

"So far, Iran won the Iraq war," said George Perkovich, the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "They gained the most by far."

He said the U.S. hand was already weak on the nuclear issue because of Russia's reluctance to go along with sanctions against the Islamic Republic. But the report makes clear that Iran has substantial leverage in any negotiation, he said, because of Iran's importance in helping to quell the civil war in Iraq. "We have to deal with reality," Perkovich said.

Israel views the situation with alarm. "The idea was to make Iraq a partner in the moderate Arab camp. Instead, it has come under the influence of Iran, a state that calls for Israel's destruction," said Ephraim Sneh, Israel's deputy defense minister.

Underpinning Iran's increased clout are the U.S. failures in Iraq  a state with a Shiite Muslim majority, among whom Iran has long exercised influence  and Tehran's deft diplomacy around the nuclear issue. In a region dominated by Sunni Muslim governments, Shiite-ruled Iran has set itself up as a leader in the confrontation between Islam and the West.

Western diplomats are reluctant to describe Iran as a victor but concede that for the moment, at least, it looks that way.

"Iran won the first round," said a senior Western diplomat in an Arab state. "But there is a long way to go, and if the U.S. leaves Iraq and other countries in the region come in  Saudi, Syria  Iran's position could weaken."

Since Iran was reported to the U.N. Security Council nearly a year ago for failure to comply with the United Nations' nuclear inspections, the Islamic Republic has undertaken a major lobbying campaign in the undeveloped world, which includes many Muslim countries, aimed at shoring up support for its nuclear program.

Iranian officials have framed the Security Council action as a scheme engineered by the West to stifle the progress of less developed countries, and they have encouraged countries to assert their nuclear rights. Signatories of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty are guaranteed the right to pursue the nuclear fuel cycle for peaceful purposes such as generating electricity as long as they forswear nuclear weapons.

Iran says it seeks nuclear technology for civilian purposes such as electricity and medical treatment, but because it kept its program secret for 18 years and there are many questions about aspects of its atomic research, Western countries believe its goal is to gain the capability to make nuclear bombs.

In what has been described as a battle between nuclear haves and have-nots, Iran has altered the debate terms to the point that a number of countries that hadn't previously expressed interested in nuclear technology are now considering it  among them Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and Indonesia.

"We want to protect our right to civilian nuclear energy," said an African nation's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran has also tried to identify itself with the Muslim Middle East, rather than allowing the ethnic and religious differences between Iran and other Mideast countries to dominate the debate as they have in the past. In addition to being Shiite-ruled in a region dominated by Sunnis, Iran is Persian; nearly all other Mideast countries are Arab.

Analysts emphasized, far more than the report's authors did, that Iran's strengthened position means the nation is unlikely to see any reason to help the U.S. unless Washington meets Iran's demands.

And, they said, Iran will put such a high price on cooperation that it will be impossible for Washington to agree.

"Iran certainly would want recognition of their enrichment program, what they claim to be their rights to uranium enrichment . They would also want lifting of [existing] U.S. sanctions, particularly on investment in oil and gas," said Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

The United States and Britain, along with France and Germany, have been the strongest proponents of requiring Iran to cease all nuclear-related activity before sitting down to negotiate.

"It's ironic that Bush, after having coined the 'axis of evil' phrase, now finds it very hard to address the Iran problem because of the failure of the Iraq policy," Fitzpatrick said. "So now they have to deal with the demons."

The tragedy of all this is how utterly predictable it all is. George Bush seems competent neither at the pedals nor the steering. It's like he's followed a track straight into a brick wall. It really has been like watching a very slow, unending train wreck.

Bush is like a guy who jumps out of an airplane without a parachute and half way to the ground says to himself "So far, so good."

There's a big "splat" coming and everybody knows it but him.

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Lets put this in perspective, Bush is having the troops jump out of that plane without a parachute, or our countrys reputation is jumping out of that plane, or our tax dollars are flying out of that plane but Bush or Cheney? Please. Still under those desks, allways have been.

My fear is Bush has made such a mess that the "politicians" answer will be to send more troops meaning just like Vietnam this will go on & on and on. Only Iraq can straighten out Iraq, If they are still fighting wars from thousands of years ago there is little our troops can offer except to be cannon fodder for both sides.

Actually, if we lost the Iraqi war, it's because our financial resources have been drained of its coffers... we used to have the largest surplus under Clinton and now we have the largest deficit under Dubya.

Hmm... so this wasn't a financial victory for us. That's why the E. Coli bugs have invaded our soil... didn't check the numbers.

Actually, if we lost the Iraqi war, it's because our financial resources have been drained of its coffers... we used to have the largest surplus under Clinton and now we have the largest deficit under Dubya.

Hmm... so this wasn't a financial victory for us. That's why the E. Coli bugs have invaded our soil... didn't check the numbers.

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I don't think you really mean what you're saying: that we could have (and could still) win the Iraq war if we spent/spend more money on it?

We've been saying for a while now that Bush got the opposite result of what he intended -- strengthening radical Islam instead of spreading democracy.

What this says is that it's worse than we thought, because now we've "legitimized" an extremist theocracy and given it power.

This is worse than a lost war. This is a total, unmitigated disaster. As far as I'm concerned, Bush is a traitor to his country, for endangering us by destabilizing the ME, for encouraging the spread of terrorism, for sacrificing so many American men and women for nothing, and for bankrupting the country in the bargain. The only reason I don't add all the Iraqi deaths is because that's more in the realm of war crimes, not treason.

We've been saying for a while now that Bush got the opposite result of what he intended -- strengthening radical Islam instead of spreading democracy.

What this says is that it's worse than we thought, because now we've "legitimized" an extremist theocracy and given it power.

This is worse than a lost war. This is a total, unmitigated disaster. As far as I'm concerned, Bush is a traitor to his country, for endangering us by destabilizing the ME, for encouraging the spread of terrorism, for sacrificing so many American men and women for nothing, and for bankrupting the country in the bargain. The only reason I don't add all the Iraqi deaths is because that's more in the realm of war crimes, not treason.

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Aren't the true winners Helliburton and Exxon and Standard Oil? They won along with Iran eh?

Everyone saw this coming. Well, except for those who actually make the decisions. Even some of them, but no one actually did anything to stop it. Nor did the press, who have pretty much long since been considered worthless.

We've been saying this for quite some time here actually. That Iraq has made things worse in the area. That people no longer trust us, boy who cried wolf and all. Not that we could actually do anything about them (Iran, NK, Darfur, etc) even if we wanted too, our resources tied up elsewhere. Meanwhile, our allies hate us, our enemies continue to grow in strength and number, creating more than we kill, and we continue to do the same things expecting different results. Someone once said that was the definition of insanity. I would be inclined to agree.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has warned Vice President Dick Cheney that Saudi Arabia would back the Sunnis if the United States pulls out of Iraq, according to a senior American official.

The official said the king "read the riot act" to the vice president when the two met last month in the Saudi capital, Riyadh.

The New York Times first reported the conversation Wednesday, saying Saudi support would include financial backing for minority Sunnis in the event of a civil war between them and Iraq's Shiite majority.

Violence between the two sects has exploded in waves of revenge killings since February's bombing of a revered Shiite mosque in Samarra, north of Baghdad.

The White House dismissed the report.

"That's not Saudi government policy," press secretary Tony Snow said in Washington, according to The Associated Press.

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Though it may seem worrisome that Saudi Arabia is choosing sides as it were, the article does go on to say that the Saudis fear a Shiite victory over the Sunnis in a civil war will make Iran and the Shiite militias it supports that much stronger.

I was watching the NewsHour last night, where they held a fairly lengthy panel discussion about what the next steps ought to be in Iraq, and I found myself wondering about how vastly different our national agenda would be today if Bush had not pulled the Iraq invasion stunt. If you want to boggle your own mind with all of the opportunities and initiative we've lost, then I recommend this mental exercise.

I was watching the NewsHour last night, where they held a fairly lengthy panel discussion about what the next steps ought to be in Iraq, and I found myself wondering about how vastly different our national agenda would be today if Bush had not pulled the Iraq invasion stunt. If you want to boggle your own mind with all of the opportunities and initiative we've lost, then I recommend this mental exercise.

Among other things. Iraq has sucked the air out of the room. We are now so fully committed to the Iraq misadventure that we hardly have the time, energy or money for anything else. We've mortgaged our entire future to Iraq, not just in terms of dollars, but in terms of forfeited opportunities. Iraq has become the center of our political universe, and will remain so from now until... whenever.

It's outrageous that he should need time. It's almost like in bizarro-Bush-world, Iraq wasn't a failure until the American public voted it into that state.

So now he's got to consider doing something about it and is just now beginning that lengthy process.

BTW, I've $5 on him picking the winsome, non-defeatist, unrealistic (and not unlike the "greeted with flowers in the streets today, peaceful beacon of democracy tomorrow" plan) "slightly more troops" approach.

****ing moron is going to get every soldier blown up. And he still won't get the picture.
I've nothing but contempt for the man, and now it's beyond professional. It's personal. **** you, Bush, you goddamned *********** piece of trash. If you'd any ****ing decency you'd take Saddam's pistol down off the mount on your trophy wall and blow your stupid ****ing brains out.

It's outrageous that he should need time. It's almost like in bizarro-Bush-world, Iraq wasn't a failure until the American public voted it into that state.

So now he's got to consider doing something about it and is just now beginning that lengthy process.

BTW, I've $5 on him picking the winsome, non-defeatist, unrealistic (and not unlike the "greeted with flowers in the streets today, peaceful beacon of democracy tomorrow" plan) "slightly more troops" approach.

****ing moron is going to get every soldier blown up. And he still won't get the picture.
I've nothing but contempt for the man, and now it's beyond professional. It's personal. **** you, Bush, you goddamned *********** piece of trash. If you'd any ****ing decency you'd take Saddam's pistol down off the mount on your trophy wall and blow your stupid ****ing brains out.

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