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It's time for the Food Network...

I have now concluded, this is going to be a very tough election for Obama. And a very close election for him as well. I certainly hope he wins it and I think he will.

However, If we want to be honest about things, the stars all aligned for him in 2008. So many stars simply fell in place and he was able to win, with a very wide margin. With a few changes even that election would have been very very close. Consider the following that fell into place or how his stars aligned:

Hillary's support: had Hillary played a sour loser, several women voters would have stayed away from the polls, some might have even voted for Palin in protest. So Obama was very fortunate that Hilary decided to put party above personal interests. Recall how bitter the battle was between Bill Clinton and Obama, which is why it is very gratifying and a lesson to all to see how they work together today.

The Economy: When that recession hit, of course a Republican was in charge. McCain could not dodge the blame for the bad economy as he as right there in Congress backing G.W. Bush on the policies that led to the recession, so once we knew we were headed downhill, it was an uphill battle for McCain to fight and win.

Sarah Palin: We are all witnesses as to how bad a choice McCain made when he chose Palin as his running mate, people most certainly did not want to think about having that woman potentially as the president of the country, even moderate Republicans were stunned by the choice.

McCain's age: Even thought it was not discussed much, McCain's age as well as his war injuries were a concern for many. Adding to this was his odd choice of Palin, this is why that pick was crucial. Should McCain had been elected, there was a strong possibility for one reason or another his VP would be in charge for some days and Palin scared the begeezus out of most fair minded people.

His message:The bipartisan hope and change message was a message badly needed at the time. Also as the first Black (mixed actually) man to be on the top ticket, the "change" aspect of his message really, really resonated with people. McCain was the same ole, normal white male, nothing special about that. Obama's "race" like it or not, fit right into his message. What this did was galvanize his African American base and even the Latino base like never before.

His race: Another topic people like to only speak about in hush tones behind closed doors. Obama being "mixed' / bi-racial presented and interesting conundrum for America. Initially African Americans struggled to accept him, as he was not completely black and also white people did the same, as of course he was not white! In the end, the African Americans embraced him, and even the majority White population also accepted his White Kansas roots AND his White grandparents whom we saw all over our TV screens... So it became a real slam dunk, he was accepted by all! But now the old racial stereo types are back again.

Republican confusion: And finally, the confusion among the Republicans. Many might not recall that at one point in his campaign, McCain was more or less completely broke, staff left his campaign much like Newt this time around. Giuliani was leading the race and fizzled out, then Huckabee and then Romney, remember that the actor Fred Thompson was even cajoled to enter the race to "save" the party and he also was a dud. Suddenly McCain turned the campaign on its head a won. So the party was really in disarray and the Democrats and Obama again benefited from this.

So in 2008, all those stars aligned. No so in 2012, it is now a completely different ball game. This election will by no means be another bow out. In this case Obama has just a few, but really tough stars against him!

The Economy: It is still limping along. This is his biggest headache. As we all see daily, Romney never misses an opportunity to remind us all that Obama promised the the stimulus package will prevent unemployment from going beyond 8% we all are witnesses to the reality.

The Deficit: Regardless of the fact that the Republicans mainly LIE when it comes to the deficit, facts are also sacred, and the fact is the deficit of the country is at 16 trillion dollars. That is scaring the begeezus out of many people. Sadly such people are close minded and do not seem to understand that a country with as strong and a productive workforce and economy like the United States can handle such deficits, once the correct decisions are made, but most have been fooled by the Republicans into believing that the deficit means we are on step away from poverty countrywide, Obama has been unable to deal decisively with the issue of the deficit.

The Republican House: Even though it is not talked about much, we all believe the Republicans will keep the house. The house refusing to work with Obama on most of his economic policies has contributed to the gridlock in Washington DC. (meanwhile walahi the traffic here now is really super gridlock!!! I think our traffic down here is now the worst in the country!) Hence the Republicans are able to make the argument, should they win the White house, they will be able to work with the Republican house for better economic results. Now if the Democrats maintain the Senate and it seems this will be the case, the gridlock might very well continue, BUT Democrats are typically not as vindictive as the Republicans and unlike the Republicans will probably put country first.

The lack of Hope and Change for Obama's biggest support group: Sadly, the college students of the 2008 hope and change campaign that moved mountains for Obama are many of the unemployed graduates of 2012. So they have not enjoyed the hope and change they were promised. As a result, Obama within that very important group has lost a lot of his fair weather young supporters, and he is needing to work increasingly hard to even maintain some of his die hard supporters from 2008. If that voting bloc does not turn out in force on the sixth, it will be so much tougher for Obama to win the election.

So the "negative" stars this time as not as many, but they are heavy hitters making a lot of people not as enthusiastic to vote for Obama this time around, they are even considering Romney despite his special art of flip flopping and circ du soliel performances ad lack of detailed solutions.

This election as we have been told will be won in two ways; the battle ground states and the female vote. Here in Virginia, Obama will do very well in NOVA (Northern Virginia) but it is critical to see how the military vote, especially the naval areas will vote, (Norfork). If Obama can win Virginia and win Ohio, even if he looses Florida, I think he takes the election. This election will come down to about five states: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, and any one of these three: Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina.

The next jobs report is going to be very critical for Obama. He better be praying it is going to be decent and if he is lucky good. Which means north of 115,00 jobs anything less than the number of jobs created last month is not going to be good news for Obama.

But I believe this election is going to be down to Ohio and Virginia. Hence I have resigned myself to watching the Food Network, for the next two weeks...

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