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1 Setting suns and rising stars Succession planning in New Zealand s Deaf education leadership workforce: A national study Saul McKay Taylor A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Educational Leadership and Management Unitec Institute of Technology New Zealand 2012

2 Abstract This thesis is the first national study examining succession planning in New Zealand s Deaf education leadership workforce. The sun is setting on the working tenure of baby-boomer educators, a large proportion of these people have reached school leadership positions. This research examines workforce demographics and the succession mechanisms in place for the rising future leaders of Deaf education in New Zealand. To date this has been an area that has not been investigated within the Aotearoa New Zealand context. A small but growing body of international and New Zealand educational literature indicates mainstream workforces are skewed towards ageing due to a unique demographic turning point as baby-boomers reach retirement age. In the arena of New Zealand Deaf education, workforce ageing presents a special concern. Teaching personnel in this workforce are highly specialised and leaders in this area hold exquisitely contextual knowledge. This thesis is concerned with investigating the need to ensure the quality and quantity of future leadership for Deaf students. If many seasoned leaders and experienced teachers are due to depart in the near term, and there are insufficient succession mechanisms in place, future leadership could be at risk. Three key questions concerning the need for succession planning, were analysed as part of this study. A mixed-methods approach was chosen that involved a quantitative survey of the three Deaf education providers in New Zealand. This was done alongside seven qualitative semi-structured interviews with the senior leaders drawn from across these organisations. Three levels of statistical analysis were applied to the quantitative data to reveal the first national demographic picture of the workforce. Thematic analysis of the qualitative findings revealed the workforce s motivation to lead and leader s perceptions of succession planning methods. Methodological triangulation of the findings from the two research tools revealed three main finding areas. Firstly, that an ageing workforce exists, secondly key factors in shaping motivation to lead were identified, and thirdly methods to develop future leaders were pinpointed. The workforce in Deaf education was found to have a more severe skew towards ageing than the mainstream education sector. Amongst a largely static workforce there was found to be a small group of highly motivated individuals who strongly "

3 aspired to leadership roles. Formal succession planning mechanisms for this workforce are needed, due to the ageing leadership. In addition to in-role development, pre-role preparatory support was required for aspirants. Specific reluctance and driving factors for leadership were uncovered and the importance of high interpersonal relational skills was emphasised to nurture aspirants and develop a leadership culture. Four recommendations for practice and one recommendation for research are made at the end of this study. The first key recommendation was that investment in leadership preparation and development in Deaf education is worthwhile at both national and organisational level. This stems from the findings that Deaf education personnel have an extremely low rate of attrition out of the profession. Once qualified, most teachers have been found to stay for their entire career. Investment is therefore not wasted. Secondly, there is a need for formal succession mechanisms. Current focus seems to be on volunteerism, self-nomination, development and replacement management. Mechanisms need to include preparation, training and encouragement pathways to identify and nurture future leadership. The third recommendation is based on schools and the Ministry of Education building their own detailed age profiles of personnel. The final practice recommendation is for increased input into building professional self-management skills. Increasingly, aspirants are being deterred from leadership due to reluctance about being able to cope with the impact of stress and workload on their lives. Such on-going professional development for neophyte leaders will assist them to gain the tools to enjoy the challenges of leadership. In terms of a recommendation for future research, gender statistics uncovered in the findings from this study revealed an opportunity for further investigation. A new line of inquiry about gender impact on Deaf students could reveal worthwhile results. ""

4 Acknowledgements My deepest and most sincere thanks to the many people who encouraged, believed in and supported this research project. I firstly acknowledge my family; you are a constant light by which to guide me through life. Thankyou for always being there whether near or far, never too tired to listen, never too busy to talk. I want to formally thank and recognise the senior leaders in Deaf education who were interviewed and supported this project through their organisations. I would also like to acknowledge the national workforce of teachers of the Deaf who participated in this research. In particular, David Foster and Michael Heeney for their belief in me as a developing leader and to Tom Purvis for teaching me the true meaning of the term mana over the years. Special thanks to Unitec staff, especially the Department of Education for all their support and help during my time as a student. To my supervisors Eileen Piggot-Irvine early on, then Howard Youngs and Carol Cardno - thankyou for all the wonderful discussions, constant encouragement and your understanding. Lastly, to all the people who I am lucky enough to call friends, thankyou for always being there for me. """

8 Chapter 1: Introduction Lifting our eyes to the horizon investigating a need for succession planning in Deaf education New Zealand. A quietly lurking succession planning issue seems to be emerging in education as a peak in retirement numbers occurs. Over the coming decade more teachers than ever before will be needed to enter leadership roles, due to the retirement of the large baby-boomer cohort of school leaders (Pont, Nusche, & Moorman, 2008) 1. The weakening of the leadership workforce, through retirement of seasoned leaders, could have serious succession planning implications for the education profession (Brooking, 2007; Rhodes & Brundrett, 2006). There is an increasing consciousness about the succession issue due to workforce ageing. Literature strongly advocates a need to be pro-active in planning about succession rather than reactive (Rhodes, 2005). A pro-active approach is imperative to manage and plan succession to ensure leadership sustainability and effectiveness (Zepeda, Bengston, & Parylo, 2011). This issue is compounded in the Deaf education arena because of the specialist skill set required by a small workforce (Lenihan, 2010). This new research provides a clear demographic picture of New Zealand's Deaf education workforce and is highly worthwhile in establishing a need for succession planning in this specialist area. The findings of this thesis demonstrate the numbers of teachers, and in particular leaders, who are likely to be exiting Deaf education over the short and longer term. It is intended this research will be valuable to the professional community and contribute to strategic thinking to enhance leadership planning. These research findings help to make the succession issue in Deaf education more palpable. The findings also reveal the extent of likely retirement numbers and the imminence of a succession issue more apparent. While this research offers a demographic snapshot, at the current moment, it also speaks to an issue that will be significant in education for the foreseeable future. This research is timely as saw the first of the baby-boomer generation ( ) teachers and leaders reaching traditional 1 Throughout this thesis (Pont, Nusche & Moorman, 2008) will be used in full to distinguish it from (Pont, Nusche & Hopkins, 2008) which will likewise be used in full instead of using et al. All other multiple author references have used et al as appropriate. $

9 retirement age of 65 years old. This could signal the start of a retirement exodus. New knowledge gained by this study can be used by the profession to better plan for succession, enhance knowledge transfer systems and provide opportunities for leadership development initiatives to be raised, the three interlinking themes of this research. Investigating succession planning in this specialist sector of education is also significant because there appears to be no demographic information on New Zealand s Deaf education's workforce nationally. Research indicating how long leaders are likely to have left in the New Zealand Deaf education workforce before reaching the traditional retirement age of 65 is as yet, an unexplored research area. Teacher morale and levels of reluctance among middle management to step into senior leadership roles have been additional relevant factors worth investigation around succession (Earley, Weindling, Bubb, & Glenn, 2009; Fink & Brayman, 2006; Rhodes, Brundrett, & Nevill, 2008). Another key term to be considered is the need for strategies to ensure transfer of institutional knowledge between current and aspiring leaders in this specialist context. Specialist context of Deaf education in New Zealand Within the field of New Zealand education there is the smaller area of special education, within this sector there is the comparatively minute area of Deaf education comprising nationally of a teaching workforce of approximately 200 teachers of the Deaf. There are two Deaf education centres (DECs), one in the North Island and one in the South Island. As well as day students, each DEC has a school site that houses some residential students. DECs provide education from pre-school to post year 13 students in a range of on-site, mainstream school satellite provision, and regional itinerant outreach programmes. Each DEC is independent of the other with their own Board of Trustees, although recent debate and consultation has taken place around Ministry of Education s action to combine the Boards in the near future and this is scheduled to happen by In the regional service of each DEC, itinerant specialist teachers of the Deaf make up an outreach service providing support to DEC enrolled students who attend their local mainstream school. These teams of itinerant teachers have resource bases to work out of and plan the management of their caseload. %

10 Within the school sector of the DEC, students are placed in Deaf provisions or units in mainstream partnership schools. DEC staff and students are deployed to these provisions in mainstream partner schools and are based there in an integrated programme with specialist support. DEC teaching staff and students are based in the partner school and para-professionals visit these sites to offer audiology support, speech therapy, counselling, and sign language specialist programmes. A small third provider in the Deaf education sector is the Ministry of Education specialist advisory service for Deaf children. This cohort is spread across the country and works with hearing impaired students who are not enrolled in the DECs. Worth and relevance of conducting the research. Investigating the potential succession problem rising in Deaf education is a worthwhile undertaking given the increasing demographic turnover in leadership highlighted in the educational literature (Fink & Brayman, 2006; Groves, 2007; Pitt- Catsouphes, 2007; Pont, Nusche, & Moorman, 2008; Rhodes & Brundrett, 2006). Furthermore, there are a number of compounding factors that amplify the need for leadership replacement planning. Technological advances in the specialised sector of Deaf education (Lenihan, 2010), tertiary course provider closures internationally and locally, the critical shortage of teachers of the Deaf and the anticipated retirement of a large number of baby-boomer professionals, makes researching succession planning an important project (Brooking, 2008; Earley, et al., 2009; Fink & Brayman, 2006). There appears to be a lack of concern amongst leaders in the profession about the particular challenges that may be faced in Deaf education over the coming decade, arising from a unique period of demographic shift. Formally planned succession structures seem to be absent presently in Deaf education. The noticeable absence of succession Research focused on leadership succession and succession planning within educational literature is sparse (Rhodes, 2005; Rhodes & Brundrett, 2006). Indeed the term 'succession' is noticeably absent from the overwhelming majority of school leadership and management literature (Altman, 2009; Rhodes, 2005). How to manage the process of transitioning individuals and how succession is actually managed in schools has had little focus (Zepeda, et al., 2011). The upcoming decade provides a finite window in the landscape of New Zealand educational leadership, during which time, knowledge can be transferred between incumbent leaders and aspiring talent. From the limited literature available, the term succession is defined &

11 not just as a reactive response to job replacement, but as a longer term view based on forward thinking relating to leadership needs and school development (Rhodes & Brundrett, 2009). Macpherson (2010) points to the need for further research into succession strategies for New Zealand's mainstream education sector. His research on perspectives collected from neophyte leaders, found that there was negligible preparation for Principalship and accumulating evidence of serious issues in the quality and quantity of leadership supply in New Zealand schools. Highlighted issues were the need for sustained career path planning, prior skills training and mentoring and a need for further investment in the leadership development infrastructure (Cardno, 2003; Macpherson, 2010). This study offers to fill a space in the knowledge by investigating the need for such planned succession strategies specifically in Deaf education within the New Zealand context. As mentioned, to date no research has been done on strategic leadership replenishment needs for this niche sector. This thesis is intended to initiate awareness and strategic thinking around planning for leadership succession so that the quality of leadership influencing teaching and learning for future students is optimised. Educational leadership is vital, policy makers and researchers agree it can make a positive difference to teaching practices, school cultures and most importantly, learning outcomes for students (Duff, 2010; Rhodes & Brundrett, 2006). Shedding light on the future of educational leadership in New Zealand, in particular Deaf education, is both relevant and worthwhile. As noted, the purpose of researching the demographic patterns of leadership in Deaf education is to determine the necessity and urgency for systemic and structured succession planning. Thus far, educational literature has paid limited attention to leadership succession (Rhodes & Brundrett, 2006). The area seems to be marginalised and is therefore worthy of further investigation. The small amount of existing literature on succession planning is international, general education focused and dated. The research study put forward here targets a gap in the literature and would make a contribution to new knowledge by providing New Zealand based, Deaf education focused, up to date findings. '

12 Investigating the gap in the knowledge about future leadership, presents a problem that all professionals in the Deaf education community have a stake in. Without effective leadership the staff systems of tomorrow could be compromised. If teachers across the sector are placed in an array of leadership roles prematurely, they could experience significant strain that could permeate across all levels of the school, ultimately reaching students. There is clearly an issue or concern that needs to be addressed around succession planning and this presents a robust research problem. This research problem implies there is a need to investigate something that we do not currently have a clear understanding of but should (Creswell, 2002). To summarise, the key terms associated with the research problem are firstly, establishing whether there is a need for succession planning by investigating workforce demographics. Secondly, finding current succession strategies used for transferring institutional knowledge and developing future leaders. Thirdly, discussing the applicability and effectiveness to Deaf education of current government leadership development initiatives. The worth of the study is confirmed by the rationale presented here: Rationale The world of Deaf education in New Zealand is very small. Within this sector there are concerns about leadership recruitment, retention and succession. Population demographics strongly point to an ageing workforce and this trend is expected to continue. Incumbent leaders face imminent retirement and those left in the workforce appear reluctant to move into senior leadership roles. There appears to be a finite amount of time left to transfer tacit professional knowledge to aspiring leaders. The purpose of this study is to clarify the demographic picture and investigate the implications of Deaf education's teacher, and more specifically, leadership workforce in New Zealand. Given the ageing population in general, perhaps the yellowing leaf (Shakespeare, 1892) 2 of leadership in education is beginning to be seen. Notions of training, ascension and succession need to be prioritised in school and government discussions, and especially so for the small Deaf education community. Research internationally on succession planning for generic educational leadership is growing; however, New Zealand specific research is scarce. Special education literature and specifically literature on Deaf education's ageing leaders, appears to be 2 Macbeth (by William Shakespeare ) Act V Scene III Line 26. (

13 non-existent. A clear gap in the research on succession planning in Deaf education in New Zealand has become evident. This research offers to fill that gap by generating up to date demographic data and recording key leadership perspectives on the future of Deaf education. It significantly contributes to producing a theory practice dialectic and forum for debate on succession planning in this area. This New Zealand based, Deaf education focused, up to date research offers a clear demographic picture and a focal point for dialogue on ensuring future leadership in this highly specialised area of education. The three research questions, forming the backbone of the research study are considered worthy and relevant, as they aim to reveal the extent of the problem in the light of the literature. Research aims, questions and setting This research aims to study leadership demographics within the field of Deaf education in New Zealand in order to determine any need for succession planning or strategic thinking around leadership workforce capacity. From this practical issue a significant research problem surfaces (Booth, Colomb, & Williams, 1995) as it becomes clear there is insufficient knowledge around the current workforce demographics in Deaf education. The problem is deepened in three ways. This research aims to explore the concept of succession planning by first looking at the national demographic picture of the teacher workforce, then secondly to determine current strategies for sharing and transferring institutional knowledge. Finally, the research aims to discuss the effectiveness of current governmental initiatives in place and strategies at school level that could ameliorate workforce succession trends emerging in Deaf education. The literature review and discussion chapters of the thesis engage with the idea of how important the nature of leadership is in Deaf education. There was a risk in assuming leadership was a fait accompli in this sector. There is no specific literature that focuses on leadership in New Zealand Deaf education, the more general literature does however, point to the importance of leadership in all aspects of education. Rhodes and Brundrett (2008) also make it clear that ensuring a supply of able middle and senior leaders is recognised to be of key strategic importance to schools. )

14 The research design best fitted to this problem involves mixed methods. Firstly, baseline demographic data on the teacher of the Deaf workforce was collected using a web-survey questionnaire. The final five questions in the questionnaire required more subjective information regarding teacher motivation to lead and intent to remain in the profession over coming years. The web-survey was therefore largely pragmatic data but did have some interpretive elements in the last five questions. Alongside the survey a series of semi-structured interviews with current senior leaders in Deaf education took place. The interviews used interpretive methods and added to gaining a fuller picture of the state of leadership preparation needs in this specialist sector of New Zealand education. Chapter three of this thesis explains in detail the quantitative and qualitative nature of the data collected and also demonstrates the unequal weighting these sets of data. This research topic of succession planning in Deaf education can be clearly problematised with three distinct research aims and three related guiding research questions: Research Aims o To establish the current demographic patterns of leaders and the teaching workforce in Deaf Education across New Zealand's three specialist providers. o To explore the importance and methods of transferring expertise and organisational knowledge from incumbent leaders to aspiring leaders. o To investigate succession planning initiatives in place in the New Zealand education system and determine their effectiveness and applicability to Deaf education. Research questions o What is the current national demographic picture of the leadership and teaching workforce in Deaf education across New Zealand's three specialist providers? o Is there a need for succession planning and, if so, what strategies could be used, by organisations to share and transfer institutional knowledge from incumbent to aspiring leaders? o How effective are current governmental and school initiatives from New Zealand's education system in preparing leaders in the Deaf education sector? *

15 Benefits of the research The key benefit of this research to practice is that the quality and training of tomorrow's leaders in Deaf education will be brought into the professional consciousness of the leaders in education by pointing out whether there is a likely impending succession issue. If the issue is recognised, leaders will hopefully begin to consider succession planning as part of their strategic plans. This research provides new findings about the national workforce that can inform succession discussions. Ultimately, student learning will be benefitted indirectly through ensuring quality future leaders in Deaf education. A wider benefit of this research is that a parallel could be drawn with the mainstream education system for what it could face on a larger scale in years to come. To summarise: Benefits of this research for the participants or community o o o o A clear, statistically informed, national picture of the workforce demographics of New Zealand Deaf education professionals. A piece of research which contributes to the discussion on the need for succession planning. The findings aim to provide a demographic snapshot that can be considered in discussions around strategic leadership replenishment over coming years. A piece of research which aims to indirectly benefit Deaf students' learning in the future by assisting the leaders in Deaf education to recognise the importance of succession planning. This research also provides some key indications of teacher's morale, level of inclination to step into management realms and the extent of strategic career thinking people currently have in the profession. Personal interest of the author in Deaf education As a professional working in New Zealand Deaf education, I have a vested interest in ensuring Deaf students have the highest standard available of educational leadership in the future. As a potential aspiring leader, I hope to be alongside other leaders in the future who have had appropriate experience and training, when they reach the realms of senior management. Thesis organisation This thesis is set out in six chapters and the remaining five chapters are organised as follows: +

16 Chapter 2 Literature review This chapter offers an in-depth review of the literature. Demographic dimensions both internationally and locally are explained and examined in light of the literature. The implications for the New Zealand Deaf education workforce are explored, as are methods for tacit knowledge transfer, strategies for succession and ways to identify and develop talent. At the end of Chapter 2 a brief mention of the workforce development at tertiary course level is discussed. Certain themes were uncovered in the literature, these included demographic shift in workforce populations internationally, the need and methods of transferring organisational knowledge, succession strategies used in education and finally identification of talented individuals. The issues and challenges of the major thematic strands in the literature are examined in this chapter. Chapter 3 Methodology and methods The methodological framework and the methods of data collection are explained in Chapter 3. A mixed methods design was chosen which allowed methodological triangulation of both sets of data to uncover deeper underlying findings as part of this national study. How the findings from the web-survey and interviews were analysed is outlined in this chapter. The three levels of quantitative analysis undertaken with the survey data are explained and the thematic analysis of the interview data are described. Ethical considerations and the related key concepts of reliability and validity are explained to complete the chapter. Chapter 4 Findings The two research tools are introduced in relation to the questions of this study and the structure of the chapter is explained. Part I presents the quantitative findings from the national survey, including the response rate and the three levels of analysis performed on the data. A demographic picture of the national workforce is explained. The three key sub-groups within the data that were found to have long remaining tenure are scrutinised and described. Relationships and differences found in the survey data through statistical analysis are presented. In part II the qualitative findings from the semi-structured interviews with senior leaders are explained. Findings from the interview data on ageing leadership, the need for encouraging leadership, the quality and quantity of leadership are presented. The specific succession strategies used by leaders are identified and,

17 presented. Leadership development initiatives, programmes and qualifications are identified and their perceived effectiveness explained. The features of future leadership that incumbent leaders perceived as vital are presented. Part III presents the methodological triangulation of the mixed methods design. The quantitative and the qualitative findings are synthesised to reveal deeper insights into the research problem. Three key areas are revealed as synthesis factors: ageing leadership, motivation to lead and finally development of future leadership. Chapter 5 Discussion The findings of the study are discussed in light of the literature reviewed in Chapter two. The chapter is structured under three subheadings derived from the synthesis factors found in Chapter four; ageing leadership, motivation to lead, and development of future leadership. The unique demographic moment the literature points to is supported with statistics from the mainstream education workforce, the demographic results from this research are then compared and reveal a more acute succession issue in the small workforce of Deaf education. The uninformed optimism of senior leadership is discussed and the shallow succession pools present in Deaf education described. The chapter goes on to discuss the cultural and emotional connection the workforce in Deaf education has with students and that is demonstrated in their commitment to postgraduate training to qualify as teachers of the Deaf. Positive portrayal of the leadership role and the need to be pro-active in developing talent and creating a leadership culture concludes the chapter. Chapter 6 Conclusions and recommendations This final chapter presents the conclusions and recommendations for this first national study into New Zealand s Deaf education workforce. The strengths and limitations of the research design are explained and an opportunity is pointed out for further study based on a finding in this project. The conclusions are grouped under the three headings of ageing workforce, motivation to lead, and development of future leaders. A descriptive diagram (Figure 6.1, p. 116) gives an overview of the succession mechanisms and personnel pipelines running through Deaf education. Four recommendations for practice and one for further research are presented and the chapter closes with a summative comment about the importance of interpersonal skills and relational leadership. $-

18 Chapter 2: Literature review Introduction There appears to be a concern in the literature that population demographics are undergoing a unique time of change. There are potential impacts on the capacity of workforces if population trends mean large numbers of people have retired. Indications in the literature strongly emphasise a dramatic and imminent increase in the number of retirees. Terminology in the literature could be critiqued as alarmist and therefore this chapter also analyses literature that criticises such dramatic ageing workforce perspectives. Assumptions are also tested and probed about the future of education workforce needs. From recognising global demographic trends and possible workforce implications of ageing, this chapter focuses on the New Zealand population and the workforce of education. From the field of education, specifically the specialist area of Deaf education and its small workforce of teachers of the Deaf becomes the focus. This cohort comprises of approximately 200 people nationally and very little is known of their demographic make-up, tenure lengths, motivation to lead or desire to stay in the profession. In light of the literature reviewed this study aims to reveal the links and trends around workforce replenishment in this specialist group of teachers. The literature reviewed in this chapter points out the importance of the tacit knowledge held by current members of the workforce and the significant challenge of transferring such expertise to the next generation of leaders. Strategies and methods for developing talented employees are considered in this chapter. Overall these strategies relate to building future leadership capacity and are collectively termed succession planning. Strategies to sustain the depth of leadership skills and expertise in schools are discussed, revealing more long term structural approaches are perhaps the most effective despite being more costly and slow to establish. A possible trend noted in the literature is the accelerated pathways and career trajectories of many emerging leaders today. Questions of leadership quality are discussed in light of the literature. $$

19 The chapter covers national and school level succession approaches and the situation of New Zealand in terms of regulations for leadership qualifications. Factors that aid and hinder talent development are discussed in depth and the responsibilities of current leaders are raised. The pros and cons of external versus home-grown candidates are noted and the end of the chapter looks briefly at the replenishment of the Deaf education workforce through graduates from tertiary courses. This end section to the chapter reveals low applicant numbers into specialist Deaf education courses and ageing demographics of the faculty members themselves. This adds another element of concern to the succession issues already discussed in the chapter. From this literature background, the importance of research into Deaf education workforce demographics is clear and the urgency for succession planning in this area is uncovered. From the macro to the micro context a unique demographic moment Ageing is the new population problem of our times (Mullen, 2002; Shaw, 2002). As we begin the second decade of the 21 st century, a unique moment in history has arrived in terms of population ageing and the demographic transformation of developed countries (Statistics New Zealand Tatauranga Aotearoa, 2006; World Health Organisation, 2010). An 'age wave' (Hewitt, 2009) consisting of the babyboomer generation ( ) reaching traditional retirement ages has begun to arrive from 2011 and will have significant gerontological impacts across all professions and industries. Gerontology in this thesis is defined as the effects of an ageing population on societal patterns or shape (McGuire, Klein, & Cooper, 2005). Gerontologically, the shape and structure of the population has morphed over the least 50 years. The shape has moved from a traditional pyramid with a wide base of baby-boomer youngsters in the population and small number of elderly at the top. By contrast today s population shape has a more narrow base and a wider apex, becoming more rectangular in overall shape (Mullen, 2002). In relation to this, the literature portends that globally the number of people over 60 years old will more than treble by 2050, from 600 million to two billion. In addition, by 2040 the ratio of people working to those over 65 could fall from 4:1 to just 2:1 (Shaw, 2002). $%

20 In the light of the literature this increase of retirees is potentially a demographic 'tipping point' or time bomb in the composition of national workforces (Earley, et al., 2009; Pitt-Catsouphes, 2007). Organisations of all sizes and industries face incredible challenges in preparing management personnel for future leadership positions (Groves, 2007; Hewitt, 2008). These trends are happening at all spatial levels; globally, nationally and locally (Hewitt, 2009; Statistics New Zealand Tatauranga Aotearoa, 2006). It is also largely accepted throughout the literature that these ageing demographic trends are present in all advanced societies and findings are indisputable and immutable (DeLong, 2004; Shaw, 2002). Coupled with this issue, increased longevity, decreased fertility rates and people having children typically at a later age than previous decades (Statistics New Zealand Tatauranga Aotearoa, 2009) have all meant the world's population is ageing. DeLong (2004) remarks that between in the United States, numbers of workers 45 years and over have increased from 33% to 40% (an extra 17 million) at the same time workers years dropped from 51% to 44% of the workforce a decline of 3 million workers from the pool that would be expected to succeed those retiring. New Zealand is included in this significant demographic transition and similar trends have been prognosticated here (Altman, 2009; Pitt-Catsouphes, 2007; Statistics New Zealand Tatauranga Aotearoa, 2006). In the 1960s, the 65+ group made up just 8% of the population in New Zealand. This rose to 12% in 2005 and from the 2030s baby boomers are predicted to account for over 25% of the population (Statistics New Zealand Tatauranga Aotearoa, 2006). It is predicted that the largest increases in the New Zealand 65+ age group will occur between 2021 (increase of 223,000) (increase of 276,000) (Statistics New Zealand Tatauranga Aotearoa, 2006). A visual representation of the passage of the large baby-boomer generation is found in Figure 2.1 and relates specifically to New Zealand. The large base of the 1951 section of the Figure, clearly depicts the birth of the baby-boomer generation. The 2006 graph sees the baby-boomer wave reach the middle and upper strata of the demographic. Significantly, the base in the 2006 graph is much more narrow than in 1951, as the birth rate reduces. As the graph shows, forecasts for the middle of the 21 st century indicate a far greater proportion of people living into their 70s, 80s and 90s with an even further reduced birth rate. $&

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