Comments on Links for 11-21-2012TypePad2012-11-21T05:58:09ZMark Thomahttp://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/tag:typepad.com,2003:http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2012/11/links-for-11-21-2012/comments/atom.xml/anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e1f241f970c2012-11-24T20:59:11Z2012-11-24T20:59:11ZanneA direct and clear push for small business development would expand the limits of the discussion beyond growing GDP, and...<p>A direct and clear push for small business development would expand the limits of the discussion beyond growing GDP, and into areas of social policy. E.g. would there be more grassroots push for single-payer? I think so, as this would benefit small entrepreneurs personally, and in terms of their employee costs. As opposed to big business, where the class affinity of the managers doesn&#39;t allow them to see the benefits of single-payer.</p>
<p>[ Nice. ]</p>Julio commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e1f1223970c2012-11-24T20:48:10Z2012-11-24T22:05:28ZJuliohttp://profile.typepad.com/juliokIt's simple and necessary but not enough, it leaves too much policy decision to the market status quo. A direct...<p>It&#39;s simple and necessary but not enough, it leaves too much policy decision to the market status quo.</p>
<p>A direct and clear push for small business development would expand the limits of the discussion beyond growing GDP, and into areas of social policy. E.g. would there be more grassroots push for single-payer? I think so, as this would benefit small entrepreneurs personally, and in terms of their employee costs. As opposed to big business, where the class affinity of the managers doesn&#39;t allow them to see the benefits of single-payer.</p>
<p>An initiative that puts small business on the side of the people, instead of wannabe onepercenters, would have pervasive consequences. </p>cm commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e185723970c2012-11-24T02:17:23Z2012-11-24T02:17:23ZcmI was thinking more about flintstones, chalk, and fossilized animal shells. The conceptual idea behind carbon dating is simple. But...<p>I was thinking more about flintstones, chalk, and fossilized animal shells.</p>
<p>The conceptual idea behind carbon dating is simple. But I agree most things not readily verifiable by the layperson are a matter of belief.<br />
</p>cm commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33e98498970b2012-11-24T02:05:54Z2012-11-24T02:05:54ZcmOften in such cases, but not always, there is a spouse with family benefits. Usually there is when the choice...<p>Often in such cases, but not always, there is a spouse with family benefits. Usually there is when the choice was voluntary. Otherwise it is what it is.<br />
</p>cm commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee58d012e970d2012-11-24T01:51:53Z2012-11-24T01:51:53ZcmYes on both counts. What I meant is that as the rat race becomes untenable and a "real job" perhaps...<p>Yes on both counts. What I meant is that as the rat race becomes untenable and a &quot;real job&quot; perhaps elusive, people come to look at temp work differently. I know more than one anecdote of people who would prefer a &quot;good&quot; permanent job, but will gladly prefer contract work over shitty &quot;permanent&quot; jobs.</p>
<p>I think there is no contradiction between any of what we both said.<br />
</p>Eric commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33dfa760970b2012-11-22T19:39:40Z2012-11-22T19:39:40ZEricI continue to find the Japanese story fascinating. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/11/there-is-only-one-thing-that-can-save-japan-now-inflation/265421/ What surprises me most is how economic opinions on Japan differ...<p>I continue to find the Japanese story fascinating.<br />
<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/11/there-is-only-one-thing-that-can-save-japan-now-inflation/265421/" rel="nofollow">http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/11/there-is-only-one-thing-that-can-save-japan-now-inflation/265421/</a></p>
<p>What surprises me most is how economic opinions on Japan differ (see also comments article).<br />
This makes me wonder how economics can be relied on as a science with so little consensus among &#39;&#39;experts&#39;&#39;.<br />
And that reality is totally different from economic models.<br />
Economists seem to think they can predict the future, but maybe this is merely an illusion if you look at Japan.<br />
That makes you wonder: was it really the US government who was responsible for lifting the US out of depression or was it just a matter of the tailwind of some historic developments that gave the US the push in the right direction.<br />
In the end economics is about people, some luck, and historic developments like inventions and not monetary or fiscal policy.<br />
History is full of examples of the rise and decline of great powers, and unfortunately for Japan they seem to be on the decline. No monetary or fiscal policy is going to change that.</p>NKlein1553 commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33de81c1970b2012-11-22T15:44:53Z2012-11-22T15:44:59ZNKlein1553http://profile.typepad.com/nolankleinI agree. I don't believe g and i are independent of the primary balance. I believe that under most circumstances...<p>I agree. I don&#39;t believe g and i are independent of the primary balance. I believe that under most circumstances a higher g can be brought about by a larger deficit:</p>
<p><a href="http://fictionalbarking.blogspot.com/2012/10/bill-vickrey-and-alan-blinder-on-burden.html" rel="nofollow">http://fictionalbarking.blogspot.com/2012/10/bill-vickrey-and-alan-blinder-on-burden.html</a></p>
<p>&quot;Deficits add to the net disposable income of individuals, to the extent that government disbursements that constitute income to recipients exceed that abstracted from disposable income in taxes, fees, and other charges. This added purchasing power, when spent, provides markets for private production, inducing producers to invest in additional plant capacity, which will form part of the real heritage left to the future. This is in addition to whatever public investment takes place in infrastructure, education, research, and the like. Larger deficits, sufficient to recycle savings out of a growing gross domestic product in excess of what can be recycled by profit-seeking private investment, are not an economic sin but an economic necessity. Deficits in excess of a gap growing as a result of the maximum feasible growth in real output might indeed cause problems, but we are nowhere near that level.&quot;</p>
<p>William &quot;Wild Bill&quot; Vickrey. &quot;Fifteen fallacies of financial fundamentalism: A disquisition on demand-side economies&quot;, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 95, No. 3, February 1998, pp. 1340-1347.</p>NKlein1553 commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee582080d970d2012-11-22T15:39:35Z2012-11-22T15:39:40ZNKlein1553http://profile.typepad.com/nolankleinFinally, if g > i, then for any level of primary deficit, there is a corresponding finite, positive level of...<p>Finally, if g &gt; i, then for any level of primary deficit, there is a corresponding finite, positive level of debt. That&#39;s what I mean by &quot;there is no such thing as an unsustainable deficit.&quot; You can argue that the finite, positive number is too high. It will cause inflation. It will be a burden on the middle class. Etc. I don&#39;t think those are particularly good or convincing arguments, but they are outside the scope of my comment. I believe that realistically (and historically) the most viable way to maintain a &quot;sustainable&quot; debt to GDP ratio is to implement policies that ensure g &gt; i. The best policy to accomplish this is full employment. With full employment almost anything is possible.</p>NKlein1553 commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e0d204b970c2012-11-22T15:38:50Z2012-11-22T15:38:53ZNKlein1553http://profile.typepad.com/nolankleinSecond, if g < i then a primary surplus is necessary to keep the debt from growing without limit.<p>Second, if g &lt; i then a primary surplus is necessary to keep the debt from growing without limit.</p>NKlein1553 commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e0d1f7a970c2012-11-22T15:38:12Z2012-11-22T15:38:16ZNKlein1553http://profile.typepad.com/nolankleinFirst, if g = i, then the only "sustainable" (keeping in mind my definition from above) primary deficit/surplus is zero;...<p>First, if g = i, then the only &quot;sustainable&quot; (keeping in mind my definition from above) primary deficit/surplus is zero; any level of deficit leads to an ever increasing debt to GDP ratio. Similarly, any level of primary surpluses leads to the government eventually paying off its debt and earning a surplus that grows without limit. Government ownership of the means of production!! Probably not what the deficit scolds have in mind. </p>NKlein1553 commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e0d1e52970c2012-11-22T15:37:22Z2012-11-22T15:37:27ZNKlein1553http://profile.typepad.com/nolankleinI'm talking about accounting relationships here, not inflation or the effect on tax payers of accommodating different rates of return...<p>I&#39;m talking about accounting relationships here, not inflation or the effect on tax payers of accommodating different rates of return for different bond holders. So I don&#39;t think the real/nominal distinction matters much. By &quot;sustainable,&quot; I simply mean &quot;convergence to some finite number.&quot;</p>
<p>The equation:</p>
<p>bt+1 - bt = dt+1[(i-g)/(1+g)]bt ≈ dt + (i-g)(bt)</p>
<p>(where b is the stock of government debt in period one, bt+1 is the stock of government debt in the next period, d is the primary deficit (i.e. the deficit exclusive of interest payments), i is the interest rate on government borrowing, and g is the growth rate of GDP)</p>
<p>is a pretty common public finance equation. Using this equation we can see what happens if a primary deficit is maintained.</p>
<p>So it seems to me we&#39;ve got three scenarios to consider: <br />
</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e0cb87f970c2012-11-22T14:32:46Z2012-11-22T14:32:46ZFred C. DobbsI recollect that the logic behind 'carbon dating' (or any radioactive element) seems a little tricky, but is ultimately compelling....<p>I recollect that the logic behind &#39;carbon<br />
dating&#39; (or any radioactive element) seems<br />
a little tricky, but is ultimately compelling.</p>
<p>Either you believe it or you don&#39;t.</p>
<p>Many find it confusing, <br />
and choose not to believe.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e0cae21970c2012-11-22T14:25:41Z2012-11-22T14:25:41ZFred C. DobbsHolding consumption down inside China keeps their exports up & inflation down. Boosting consumption in the US keeps our imports...<p>Holding consumption down inside China<br />
keeps their exports up &amp; inflation down.</p>
<p>Boosting consumption in the US keeps our<br />
imports up, pulls inflation up, presumably.</p>
<p>Anyway, increasing &#39;savings&#39; in the US<br />
would require *substantial* increases in<br />
interest rates, etc. Not going to happen.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33ddfc29970b2012-11-22T14:16:08Z2012-11-22T14:16:08ZFred C. DobbsIt was my observation that people actually did *enjoy* working this way. It meant summers (or winters) 'at the beach',...<p>It was my observation that people actually<br />
did *enjoy* working this way. It meant<br />
summers (or winters) &#39;at the beach&#39;,<br />
as well as lowered expectations<br />
for income, which were accepted.</p>
<p>The corporate rat race can be pretty stressful.</p>cm commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57f05e1970d2012-11-22T06:46:56Z2012-11-22T06:46:56ZcmI had a very short stint in public water well drilling. In those parts, to get at the water table,...<p>I had a very short stint in public water well drilling. In those parts, to get at the water table, you have to excavate sediments from the cretaceous period. Pretty instructive what you dig up there. Of course, I have to rely on other peoples claims and &quot;theories&quot; how old that stuff is ...<br />
</p>cm commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e0a1009970c2012-11-22T06:36:52Z2012-11-22T06:36:52Zcm"hiring 'temp' workers ... and there was a pool of such people who were readily available" You are emphasizing a...<p>&quot;hiring &#39;temp&#39; workers ... and there was a pool of such people who were readily available&quot;</p>
<p>You are emphasizing a different aspect of this, but let me point out that &quot;people who were readily available&quot; is the very reason this kind of shit is working. Pools of available labor with nowhere better to go. And I can say from knowing such situation that the &quot;enthusiasm&quot; you claim is mostly just disillusionment and acceptance of the fact that you will probably never get a &quot;real job&quot; again. With the added observation that &quot;real jobs&quot; seem to increasingly turn to shit as well. I&#39;m not surprised that some people prefer contracts where at least you stay mostly detached from the workplace politics, as contractors are usually not perceived as threats or competitors.<br />
</p>cm commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e0a0375970c2012-11-22T06:28:21Z2012-11-22T06:28:21ZcmAnd then there are other more or less subtle measures to clean the unemployment rolls, like "encouraging" people in their...<p>And then there are other more or less subtle measures to clean the unemployment rolls, like &quot;encouraging&quot; people in their late 50&#39;s or early 60&#39;s to retire, or declare no longer being available to the labor market, with the &quot;benefit&quot; of being left alone and no longer being called on for pointless justifications of their job search efforts or being sent to pointless job interviews or &quot;retraining&quot; programs.<br />
</p>cm commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33db5058970b2012-11-22T06:19:04Z2012-11-22T06:19:04ZcmIn Germany, like everywhere else, there are relatively few in-job wage cuts. The primary wage cut mechanism is always that...<p>In Germany, like everywhere else, there are relatively few in-job wage cuts. The primary wage cut mechanism is always that you are let go, and then you take a lower-wage job (if any). Even in Germany, here pronounced as a workers&#39; paradise (German workers would probably strongly disagree), there are &quot;incentives&quot; to take lesser paid jobs, in the form of greatly expanded safety net benefit &quot;sanctions&quot; - including but not limited to punitive cuts or benefits withholding for not showing up on time to DOL case appointments, turning down jobs one is deemed &quot;qualified&quot; for, and other reticent behaviors.<br />
</p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e08661a970c2012-11-22T01:28:00Z2012-11-22T01:28:00Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/what about primary deficits ? they too can be accomodated.... no ? if g and i are both policy dtermined...<p>what about primary deficits ?</p>
<p>they too can be accomodated.... no ?</p>
<p>if g and i are both policy dtermined <br />
as they are .....at least implicitly </p>Matt Young commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d909ed970b2012-11-21T23:08:41Z2012-11-21T23:08:41ZMatt Young"If the rate of GDP growth is greater than the interest on government debt" One year interest rate about .2...<p>&quot;If the rate of GDP growth is greater than the interest on government debt&quot;</p>
<p>One year interest rate about .2 % (estimated)<br />
Nominal growth about 1.5%<br />
Inflation, about 1.5%</p>
<p>Dunno, seems a close call, if you use real growth, not nominal. Use nominal growth, then one might think a profit is at hand, except the money borrowed is spent, over the year with prices rising 1.5%. Either way, the numbers are close enough that a profit in the matter is unlikely, in other words, multipliers still below one.</p>
<p>Remember also, in a declining real growth scenario, the middle class is asked to pay back money borrowed at prices more expensive than current prices, always a profit for the bond trader not the taxpayer.</p>im1dc commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d8cfad970b2012-11-21T22:18:45Z2012-11-21T22:18:45Zim1dcPiracy is not cute or cuddly Patricia Shannon http://maritime-executive.com/article/piracy-robbery-at-sea-incidents-october-2012 "Piracy & Robbery At Sea Incidents - October 2012" Tuesday, November...<p>Piracy is not cute or cuddly Patricia Shannon</p>
<p><a href="http://maritime-executive.com/article/piracy-robbery-at-sea-incidents-october-2012" rel="nofollow">http://maritime-executive.com/article/piracy-robbery-at-sea-incidents-october-2012</a></p>
<p>&quot;Piracy &amp; Robbery At Sea Incidents - October 2012&quot;</p>
<p>Tuesday, November 20, 2012</p>
<p>&quot;A round up of piracy and robbery at sea incidents occurring during October 2012. In total, 25 incidents were reported.</p>
<p>West Africa grabbed the piracy front pages in October. Hijack for oil cargo is one aspect, but October saw the kidnap of seven expats on a supply ship, although the remaining nine Nigerian crew were left alone. Asia saw a repeat of the September figures in the amount of incidents with 15 in total and one suspect incident to add to the count. East Africa continued to see low activity, but did include a hijacking that was later rescued. South America, as occurred in September, had a single incident.</p>
<p>October Oil</p>
<p>A fishing vessel was hijacked only 2 nautical miles off the Somali coast in October as suspected pirates began to be reported sighted as far North off the Iranian coast and far down to the south in the Mozambique Channel and even east of Madagascar. Naval forces were able to disrupt PAGs, including the hijacked fishing vessel.</p>
<p>Attacks aimed at the theft of oil cargo continued to be the main danger in the Gulf of Guinea. As the Nigerian Navy increased presence in the region, hijacks have occurred off Togo, and for the first time, the Ivory Coast. The kidnap of seven expats from supply ship Bourbon Liberty 249 southwest of Brass, Nigeria, whilst leaving the Nigerian nationals to sail to a safe port, is a change to the usual methodology. Hopefully, this is not a newer trend.</p>
<p>In Asia, 15 incidents again took place with another hijack, but with a difference. MT Arowana United was due to bunker a vessel but was hijacked whilst at Labuan anchorage in Malaysia. The pirates stole the 650,000 litre of fuel cargo, robbed the 8 crew, inflicting minor injuries, and vandalised navigation equipment to avoid being located. The vessel and crew were recovered two weeks later. The theft of fuel cargo, also seen during September, is along similar lines to that of West African piracy.</p>
<p>South America saw one robbery incident in Cartagena, Colombia.</p>
<p>Numbers:</p>
<p>HoA/IOR – 3 Incidents</p>
<p>W Africa – 6 Incidents</p>
<p>Asia – 15 Incidents</p>
<p>S America – 1 Incident&quot;...</p>ilsm commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57b6bfb970d2012-11-21T19:27:08Z2012-11-21T19:27:08Zilsmwar spending is insurance against the hun coming over the walls again there is just not much peril but to...<p>war spending is insurance </p>
<p>against the hun coming</p>
<p>over the walls again</p>
<p>there is just not much peril</p>
<p>but to the militarist payroll</p>
<p>1% of GDP is more than enough for </p>
<p>the militiae do the common defense</p>
<p>you and me be isolationists</p>
<p>which would be fine if </p>
<p>teapublicans could find a de tocque quote,</p>
<p>how interventionism is against</p>
<p>democarcy and for socialism</p>
<p>teapublicans won&#39;t quote bastiat</p>
<p>alas Hayek only quoted de tocque </p>
<p>with words to con the serfs</p>
<p>if you took US and UK out of NATO</p>
<p>the Euro part would just</p>
<p>be contributing 1.3% of GDP</p>
<p>the NATO standard is 2%</p>
<p>the US is over achieving by 2.5X</p>
<p>while the Brits are over at 2.6% GDP</p>
<p>the rest of NATO with nary </p>
<p>concern for the red army</p>
<p>and less worry of a hitler</p>
<p>from belgrade don&#39;t come hither</p>
<p>to tote war&#39;s millstone bale</p>
<p>figures are from 2011 NATO </p>
<p>report i have on .pdf</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d7b196970b2012-11-21T18:44:04Z2012-11-21T18:44:04Zannehttp://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/swift/jonathan/s97g/chapter17.html#chapter17 1726 Gulliver's Travels By Jonathan Swift A Voyage to Laputa, Balnibarbi, Luggnagg, Glubbdubdrib, and Japan. The author sets out...<p><a href="http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/swift/jonathan/s97g/chapter17.html#chapter17" rel="nofollow">http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/swift/jonathan/s97g/chapter17.html#chapter17</a></p>
<p>1726</p>
<p>Gulliver&#39;s Travels<br />
By Jonathan Swift</p>
<p>A Voyage to Laputa, Balnibarbi, Luggnagg, Glubbdubdrib, and Japan.</p>
<p>The author sets out on his third voyage. Is taken by pirates. The malice of a Dutchman. His arrival at an island. He is received into Laputa.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57b27cb970d2012-11-21T18:39:26Z2012-11-21T18:39:26Zannehttp://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/swift/jonathan/s97g/contents.html 1726 Gulliver's Travels By Jonathan Swift A Voyage to Lilliput. The author gives some account of himself and family....<p><a href="http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/swift/jonathan/s97g/contents.html" rel="nofollow">http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/s/swift/jonathan/s97g/contents.html</a></p>
<p>1726</p>
<p>Gulliver&#39;s Travels<br />
By Jonathan Swift</p>
<p>A Voyage to Lilliput.</p>
<p>The author gives some account of himself and family. His first inducements to travel. He is shipwrecked, and swims for his life. Gets safe on shore in the country of Lilliput; is made a prisoner, and carried up the country.</p>
<p>My father had a small estate in Nottinghamshire: I was the third of five sons. He sent me to Emanuel College in Cambridge at fourteen years old, where I resided three years, and applied myself close to my studies; but the charge of maintaining me, although I had a very scanty allowance, being too great for a narrow fortune, I was bound apprentice to Mr. James Bates, an eminent surgeon in London, with whom I continued four years. My father now and then sending me small sums of money, I laid them out in learning navigation, and other parts of the mathematics, useful to those who intend to travel, as I always believed it would be, some time or other, my fortune to do. When I left Mr. Bates, I went down to my father: where, by the assistance of him and my uncle John, and some other relations, I got forty pounds, and a promise of thirty pounds a year to maintain me at Leyden: there I studied physic two years and seven months, knowing it would be useful in long voyages....</p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d7a3df970b2012-11-21T18:33:07Z2012-11-21T18:33:07ZDarryl FKA RonMaybe simpler than you think. China has no separate commanding plutocracy over its oligarchy. Confuscism legacy provided basic socialization orientation....<p>Maybe simpler than you think. China has no separate commanding plutocracy over its oligarchy. Confuscism legacy provided basic socialization orientation. So, then they just followed the yellow brick road as it laid before them. Labor centric was rural distributed, already in place. As production ramped to capital and export centric, then coastal urbanization allowed import resource and well as output goods transportation efficiency (coastal) as well as capital efficiency (urbanization). The logistics of the last 20 years was quite a butch act to play, despite the obvious reason. In the US we cannot find our arse with both hands and when we do we still don;t know what it is for.</p>
<p>OK, you are right. Better to laud the Chinese than point out what dumbos we have been. </p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e061434970c2012-11-21T18:16:40Z2012-11-21T18:16:40ZDarryl FKA RonI finally got around to reading Gulliver's Travels recently [Any book that can retain its relavence so long I would...<p>I finally got around to reading Gulliver&#39;s Travels recently</p>
<p>[Any book that can retain its relavence so long I would say is truly a great book.]</p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d783e7970b2012-11-21T18:07:50Z2012-11-21T18:07:50ZDarryl FKA RonWhich is why CS Lewis wrote almost entirely for children and adolescents; i.e., adults were already hopeless cases of exagerated...<p>Which is why CS Lewis wrote almost entirely for children and adolescents; i.e., adults were already hopeless cases of exagerated self-importance.</p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d78022970b2012-11-21T18:04:56Z2012-11-21T18:04:56ZDarryl FKA RonThe liberal enlightens can show just as much distain for the bottom half as the romneyites eh ? [Glory halleluyah...<p>The liberal enlightens can show just as much distain for the bottom half<br />
as the romneyites eh ?</p>
<p>[Glory halleluyah and amen brother. There ain&#39;t no better way to prove your greatness than by snubbing some other poor bastard. Not only does this approach lose countless voters to the other side, but it blinds elites to the actual preferences and needs of their constituencies.]</p>NKlein1553 commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e0603c1970c2012-11-21T18:03:56Z2012-11-21T18:03:56ZNKlein1553I finally got around to reading Gulliver's Travels recently. It's helped a lot understanding your nonsense paine. To think, I've...<p>I finally got around to reading Gulliver&#39;s Travels recently. It&#39;s helped a lot understanding your nonsense paine. To think, I&#39;ve been reading your ramblings for at least three years and I&#39;m just understanding now what a &quot;laputa&quot; flying overhead means.</p>Mark A. Sadowski commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d77e9c970b2012-11-21T18:03:37Z2012-11-21T18:03:37ZMark A. SadowskiThe GSEs and some international institutions have accounts with the Fed. Unlike regular banks, these institutions earn no interest on...<p>The GSEs and some international institutions have accounts with the Fed. Unlike regular banks, these institutions earn no interest on reserves, so they would in principle have an incentive to lend out any unused end-of-day balances as long as they earn a positive interest rate.</p>
<p>There are only eight other central banks with an interest on reserves policy like the Fed&#39;s. Here&#39;s a good overview of those policies:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2010/996/ifdp996.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2010/996/ifdp996.pdf</a></p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d77746970b2012-11-21T17:58:22Z2012-11-21T17:58:22ZDarryl FKA RonSurely. Her sincerity and hyperactive sense of fairness were always obvious tells.<p>Surely. Her sincerity and hyperactive sense of fairness were always obvious tells.</p>Observer commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57ae761970d2012-11-21T17:49:11Z2012-11-21T17:49:11ZObserverOh, I'm completely on board with the science. Though if you read some of the history of science, it took...<p>Oh, I&#39;m completely on board with the science. Though if you read some of the history of science, it took some pretty smart people quite a while to figure it out. And I&#39;d rather the politicians gave the the Wiki reply. </p>
<p>I just note that the purpose of the media attention to Rubio&#39;s vs. Obama&#39;s response is political kneecapping, not improving scientific literacy.</p>
<p>In the same selective kneecapping vein, I doubt we&#39;ll see multiple reposts of NYT articles here implying that Harry Reid&#39;s confessional affiliation makes him a unacceptable choice for Senate Majority Leader.<br />
</p>NKlein1553 commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d76ad2970b2012-11-21T17:48:34Z2012-11-21T17:48:34ZNKlein1553Sorry, that was supposed to be in reply to Mark S' comment above about Bernake's speech.<p>Sorry, that was supposed to be in reply to Mark S&#39; comment above about Bernake&#39;s speech.</p>NKlein1553 commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d76414970b2012-11-21T17:43:21Z2012-11-21T17:43:21ZNKlein1553I hate the phrase "sustainable in the long run." It is a phrase so overly used as to be completely...<p>I hate the phrase &quot;sustainable in the long run.&quot; It is a phrase so overly used as to be completely meaningless. </p>
<p>If the rate of GDP growth is greater than the interest on government debt, there is ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS a corresponding stable level of debt. In this sense, there is no such thing as an &quot;unsustainable&quot; deficit. Only if g &lt; i will a constant debt require a primary surplus.</p>
<p>Discussions about the federal budget in isolation are boring and counterproductive. The only discussion anyone with any sense should be having is how to put more people back to work. At full employment almost any conceivable federal budget is &quot;sustainable.&quot;</p>Mark A. Sadowski commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d763ad970b2012-11-21T17:43:02Z2012-11-21T17:43:02ZMark A. Sadowskihttp://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2012/11/21/updating-predictions/ November 21, 2012 Updating “predictions” By Marcus Nunes "Nine months ago, when there was a lot of excitement about...<p><a href="http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2012/11/21/updating-predictions/" rel="nofollow">http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2012/11/21/updating-predictions/</a></p>
<p>November 21, 2012</p>
<p>Updating “predictions”<br />
By Marcus Nunes</p>
<p>&quot;Nine months ago, when there was a lot of excitement about the Dow touching 13000 points for the first time since the crisis began, I posted “What´s so special about 13000”? I ended the post writing:<br />
<br />
&quot;So 13000 is just the “top” of a long running range. And that´s why investors feel the proverbial “chill in the spine”. As I mentioned a couple of days ago with reference to the S&amp;P, “this stock market rally is not for real”. It´s just riding a “foamy wave of sentiment”. That´s been mostly true for the past 13 years. The “novelty” is that now the market´s “conduit” has been, believe it or not, inflation expectations. A hell of a “way to go”!&quot;<br />
<br />
In the comment section of that post I answered a comment by Mike Sax in which I proposed a wager:<br />
<br />
&quot;And I´m willing to wager that if monetary policy remains on the “side lines” in 6 months time the DOW will not be higher than 13000!&quot;<br />
<br />
I “lost” that wager by about 100 points. But another three months on things have worsened again. The Chart illustrates the Dow on a weekly frequency since January 2011 with the dotted bar denoting the day the post was written.</p>
<p><a href="http://thefaintofheart.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/dow-13000.png" rel="nofollow">http://thefaintofheart.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/dow-13000.png</a></p>
<p>Now I´m more cautious about a new “wager” because Nouriel “Doomsday” Roubini has said things are very likely to get worse!&quot;<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/downside-risks-will-prevail-in-2013-by-nouriel-roubini" rel="nofollow">http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/downside-risks-will-prevail-in-2013-by-nouriel-roubini</a></p>
<p>&quot;As consumers, firms, and investors become more cautious and risk-averse, the equity-market rally of the second half of 2012 has crested. And, given the seriousness of the downside risks to growth in advanced and emerging economies alike, the correction could be a bellwether of worse to come for the global economy and financial markets in 2013.&quot;</p>rrrrrrr commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57adc39970d2012-11-21T17:41:28Z2012-11-21T17:41:28ZrrrrrrrI don't understand the corridor of $policy right now. IOR is greater than the upper limit on fed funds. Shouldn't...<p>I don&#39;t understand the corridor of $policy right now. IOR is greater than the upper limit on fed funds. Shouldn&#39;t discount rate be the upper limit with IOR the lower limit? Why lend in fed funds if IOR has a greater return? </p>Mark A. Sadowski commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e05e1dd970c2012-11-21T17:37:49Z2012-11-21T17:37:49ZMark A. Sadowskihttp://uneasymoney.com/2012/11/20/negotiating-the-fiscal-cliff/ November 20, 2012 Negotiating the Fiscal Cliff By David Glasner "...Over the weekend, Mark Sadowski kindly explained to me...<p><a href="http://uneasymoney.com/2012/11/20/negotiating-the-fiscal-cliff/" rel="nofollow">http://uneasymoney.com/2012/11/20/negotiating-the-fiscal-cliff/</a></p>
<p>November 20, 2012</p>
<p>Negotiating the Fiscal Cliff <br />
By David Glasner</p>
<p>&quot;...Over the weekend, Mark Sadowski kindly explained to me how Krugman did the calculations underlying his chart, even generating the data for me, thereby allowing me to reconstruct Krugman’s chart and to redo my earlier regressions using the exact data. Here are the old and the new results.<br />
<br />
OLD: dGDP = 3.60 + .70dG, r-squared = .295<br />
<br />
NEW: dGDP = 3.26 + .51dG, r-squared = .433<br />
<br />
So, according to the correct data set, the relationship between changes in government spending and changes in GDP is closer than the approximated data set that I used previously. However, the newly estimated coefficient on the government spending term is almost 30% smaller than the coefficient previously estimated using the approximated data set. In other words a one dollar increase in government spending generates an increase in GDP of only 50 cents. Increasing government spending reduces private spending by about half.<br />
<br />
The estimated regression for changes in real GDP on inflation changed only slightly:<br />
<br />
OLD: dGDP = 2.48 + .69dP, r-squared = .199<br />
<br />
NEW: dGDP = 2.46 + .70dP, r-squared = .193<br />
<br />
The estimated regression for changes in real GDP on inflation (controlled for mismeasurement of inflation in 1946 and 1947) also showed only a slight change:<br />
<br />
OLD: dGDP = 2.76 + 1.28dP – 23.29PCON, r-squared = .621<br />
<br />
NEW: dGDP = 3.02 + 1.25dP – 23.13PCON, r-squared = .613<br />
<br />
Here are my old and new regressions for changes in real GDP on government spending as well as on inflation (controlled for mismeasurement of inflation in 1946-47). As you can see, the statistical fit of the regression improves by including both inflation and the change in government spending as variables (the adjusted r-squared is .648) and the coefficient on the government-spending term is positive and significant (t = 2.37). When I re-estimated the regression on Krugman’s data set, the statistical fit improved, and the coefficient on the government-spending variable remained positive and statistically significant (t = 3.45), but was about a third smaller than the coefficient estimated from the approximated data set.<br />
<br />
OLD: dGDP = 2.27 + .49dG + 1.15dP – 13.36PCON, r-squared = .681<br />
<br />
NEW: dGDP = 2.56 + .33dG + 1.00dP – 13.14PCON, r-squared = .728<br />
<br />
So even if we allow for the effect of inflation on changes in output, and contrary to what I suggested in my previous post, changes in government spending were indeed positively and significantly correlated with changes in real GDP, implying that government spending may have some stimulative effect even apart from the effect of monetary policy on inflation. Moreover, insofar as government spending affects inflation, attributing price-level changes exclusively to monetary policy may underestimate the stimulative effect of government spending. However, if one wants to administer stimulus to the private sector rather than increase the size of the public sector at the expense of the private sector (the implication of a coefficient less than one on the government-spending term in the regression), there is reason to prefer monetary policy as a method of providing stimulus.<br />
<br />
The above, aside from the acknowledment of Mark Sadowski’s assistance and the mea culpa for negligence in reporting my earlier results, is all by way of introduction to a comment on a recent post by my internet buddy Lars Christensen on his Market Moneterist blog in which he welcomes the looming fiscal cliff. Here’s how Lars puts it:</p>
<p><a href="http://marketmonetarist.com/2012/11/16/the-fiscal-cliff-is-good-news/" rel="nofollow">http://marketmonetarist.com/2012/11/16/the-fiscal-cliff-is-good-news/</a><br />
<br />
&quot;The point is that the US government is running clearly excessive public deficits and the public debt has grown far too large so isn’t fiscal tightening exactly what you need? I think it and the fiscal cliff ensures that. Yes, I agree tax hikes are unfortunate from a supply side perspective, but cool down a bit – it is going to have only a marginally negative impact on long-term US growth perspective that the Bush tax cuts experiences. But more importantly the fiscal cliff would mean cuts in US defense spending. The US is spending more on military hardware than any other country in the world. It seems to me like US policy makers have not realized that the Cold War is over. You don’t need to spend 5% of GDP on bombs. In fact I believe that if the entire 4-5% fiscal consolidation was done as cuts to US defence spending the world would probably be a better place. But that is not my choice – and it is the peace loving libertarian rather than the economist speaking (here is a humorous take on the sad story of war). What I am saying is that the world is not coming to an end if the US defense budget is cut marginally. Paradoxically the US conservatives this time around are against budget consolidation. Sad, but true.&quot;<br />
<br />
I am not going to take the bait and argue with Lars about the size of the US defense budget. The only issue that I want to consider is what would happen as a result of the combination of a large cut in defense (and in other categories of) spending and an increase in taxes? It might not be catastrophic, but there seems to me to be a non-negligible risk that such an outcome would have a significant contractionary effect on aggregate demand at a time when the recovery is still anemic and requires as much stimulus as it can get. Lars argues that any contractionary effect caused by reduced government spending and increased taxes could be offset by sufficient monetary easing. I agree in theory, but in practice there are just too many uncertainties associated with how massive fiscal tightening would be received by public and private decision makers to rely on the theoretical ability of monetary policy in one direction to counteract fiscal policy in the opposite direction. This would be the case even if we knew that Bernanke and the FOMC would do the right thing. But, despite encouraging statements by Bernanke and other Fed officials since September, it seems more than a bit risky at this time and this place to just assume that the Fed will become the stimulator of last resort.<br />
<br />
So, Lars, my advice to you is: be careful what you wish for...&quot;</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d74ff4970b2012-11-21T17:27:06Z2012-11-21T17:27:06ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgAnne the scale and complexity of this social transformation humbles even a popinjay like me What needs ephasis I think...<p>Anne the scale and complexity of this social transformation humbles even a popinjay like me </p>
<p>What needs ephasis I think is the distinction between maximizing existing know how in the rural areas and the traditional urban sectors <br />
And the transformation of the economy to a contemporary production platform</p>
<p>The export oriented charge of the lad 20 years was necessary </p>
<p>Modernization without MNC participation is a dead end <br />
Import substitution has to be on the basis of world class products<br />
Only exposure to world markets can induce this reliably </p>
<p>The task for a country that is also a sub continent is far different <br />
Then say people&#39;s Eritrea </p>
<p>But the fantasy of autarky and ab ova developmental self sufficiency<br />
is a bad mistake</p>
<p>However the state must retain the commanding heights<br />
never give up control of trade policy and credit flows<br />
Never fail to produce comprehensive prospective industrial plans </p>
<p>Taylor prolly likes the notion<br />
Chinese now must open wider</p>
<p>Allow the hi fi laputa to fly over head and take control</p>
<p>Often this takes the appealing form of greater human rights and human liberty<br />
When it&#39;s really about corporate indeed MNC liberty </p>
<p> </p>beezer commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e05d0e5970c2012-11-21T17:25:06Z2012-11-21T17:25:06Zbeezerhttp://www.beezernotes.com/wordpress/One huge allegory that when initially written probably referred to actual people--a basic history of sorts but from such a...<p>One huge allegory that when initially written probably referred to actual people--a basic history of sorts but from such a long time ago the specific players&#39; names are lost and forgotten. That&#39;s the Old Testament. The New Testament is a history that&#39;s literally true, once you unravel the underlying activity shrouded in all the mysteries and miracles. Barbara Thiering has several brilliant books unraveling the entire history. Names, places, intrigues, real identities of real people of the time. Tease: Satan was the word for &#39;treasurer.&#39; Judas was the Satan for Jesus and his crew.<br />
</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d7428a970b2012-11-21T17:17:03Z2012-11-21T17:17:03ZFred C. DobbsCreationists still insist that the Grand Canyon is about 4500 years old. You got a problem with that? http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/06/science/sciencespecial2/06canyon.html NYT...<p>Creationists still insist that the<br />
Grand Canyon is about 4500 years old.</p>
<p>You got a problem with that?</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/06/science/sciencespecial2/06canyon.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/06/science/sciencespecial2/06canyon.html</a><br />
NYT - October 6, 2005 - JODI WILGOREN<br />
<br />
GRAND CANYON NATIONAL PARK, Ariz. - Tom Vail, who has been leading rafting trips down the Colorado River here for 23 years, corralled his charges under a rocky outcrop at Carbon Creek and pointed out the remarkable 90-degree folds in the cliff overhead.<br />
<br />
Geologists date this sandstone to 550 million years ago and explain the folding as a result of pressure from shifting faults underneath. But to Mr. Vail, the folds suggest the Grand Canyon was carved 4,500 years ago by the great global flood described in Genesis as God&#39;s punishment for humanity&#39;s sin.<br />
<br />
&quot;You see any cracks in that?&quot; he asked. &quot;Instead of bending like that, it should have cracked.&quot; The material &quot;had to be soft&quot; to bend, Mr. Vail said, imagining its formation in the flood. When somebody suggested that pressure over time could create plasticity in the rocks, Mr. Vail said, &quot;That&#39;s just a theory.&quot;<br />
<br />
&quot;It&#39;s all theory, right?&quot; asked Jack Aiken, 63, an Assemblies of God minister in Alaska who has a master&#39;s degree in geology. &quot;Except what&#39;s in the Good Book.&quot; ...<br />
</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d73fee970b2012-11-21T17:14:59Z2012-11-21T17:14:59Zannehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/world/asia/southeast-asian-nations-announce-trade-bloc-to-rival-us-effort.html?ref=world November 20, 2012 Asian Nations Plan Trade Bloc That, Unlike U.S.’s, Invites China By JANE PERLEZ [ Yes, America...<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/world/asia/southeast-asian-nations-announce-trade-bloc-to-rival-us-effort.html?ref=world" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/world/asia/southeast-asian-nations-announce-trade-bloc-to-rival-us-effort.html?ref=world</a></p>
<p>November 20, 2012</p>
<p>Asian Nations Plan Trade Bloc That, Unlike U.S.’s, Invites China<br />
By JANE PERLEZ</p>
<p>[ Yes, America wants an Asian trade pact without China. This is beyond absurd. ]</p>Mark A. Sadowski commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d73f8b970b2012-11-21T17:14:38Z2012-11-21T17:14:38ZMark A. Sadowskihttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/20/bernanke-to-congress-dont-flub-the-austerity-crisis/?wprss=rss_business November 20, 2012 Bernanke to Congress: Don’t flub the austerity crisis By Neil Irwin "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke...<p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/20/bernanke-to-congress-dont-flub-the-austerity-crisis/?wprss=rss_business" rel="nofollow">http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/20/bernanke-to-congress-dont-flub-the-austerity-crisis/?wprss=rss_business</a></p>
<p>November 20, 2012</p>
<p>Bernanke to Congress: Don’t flub the austerity crisis<br />
By Neil Irwin</p>
<p>&quot;Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a stark warning to lawmakers in a high-profile speech Tuesday, saying that the U.S. economy is at risk if they bungle negotiations over the looming austerity crisis.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121120a.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121120a.htm</a></p>
<p>Bernanke’s remarks are notable less for their substance than for their tone and timing. In his most prominent public speech in almost three months, Bernanke made clear that he sees grave risks should the bargaining over the “fiscal cliff” — a phrase he coined — lead to either steep, immediate fiscal austerity or prolonged, confidence-rattling brinksmanship. And he suggested that 2013 could be a good year for the U.S. economy if lawmakers reach a deal quickly and amicably.</p>
<p>Uncertainty over U.S. fiscal policy “appears already to be affecting private spending and investment decisions and may be contributing to an increased sense of caution in financial markets, with adverse effects on the economy,” Bernanke told an audience of the Economic Club of New York, according to a prepared text. And the nation’s future prospects may be shaped in part by whether policymakers act in ways that instill confidence in the stability of U.S. policy.</p>
<p>The economy is already bearing the weight of that anxiety, Bernanke said, and “such uncertainties will only be increased by discord and delay. In contrast, cooperation and creativity to deliver fiscal clarity . . . could help make the new year a very good one for the American economy.”</p>
<p>As he has before, Bernanke warned that the tax increases and spending cuts now scheduled to take effect Jan. 1 would harm the economy. “The Congress and the Administration will need to protect the economy from the full brunt of the severe fiscal tightening at the beginning of next year that is built into current law,” Bernanke said. A failure to act “would pose a substantial threat to the recovery” and would, by the reckoning of analysts at the Congressional Budget Office and elsewhere, “send the economy toppling back into recession.”</p>
<p>As is his habit, Bernanke did not publicly endorse specific tax and spending policies as part of a deal. Rather, he called generally for policymakers to “think creatively and work together constructively,” working to find a “credible plan to put the federal budget on a path that will be sustainable in the long run” while also taking actions that “avoid unnecessarily adding to the headwinds that are already holding back the economic recovery” by introducing austerity policies too quickly.</p>
<p>But he left no doubt that a negotiation process like that over raising the debt ceiling in the summer of 2011 could be destabilizing for a fragile economy. “The economic confidence of both market participants and the general public likely will also be influenced by the extent to which our political system proves able to deliver a reasonable solution with a minimum of uncertainty and delay.”</p>
<p>Other points to note from Bernanke’s first major speech on the economy since the end of August:...&quot;</p>Mark A. Sadowski commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d73b85970b2012-11-21T17:11:24Z2012-11-21T17:11:24ZMark A. Sadowskihttp://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/11/20/inflation_is_confusing_because_economists_are_confused.html November 20, 2012 People Are Confused About Inflation Because Economists Are Working With a Confused Idea By Matthew Yglesias...<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/11/20/inflation_is_confusing_because_economists_are_confused.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/11/20/inflation_is_confusing_because_economists_are_confused.html</a></p>
<p>November 20, 2012</p>
<p>People Are Confused About Inflation Because Economists Are Working With a Confused Idea<br />
By Matthew Yglesias</p>
<p>&quot;There&#39;s tons of public confusion out there about inflation all the time, but rather than worrying about why the public is so confused about it I think we should worry first and foremost about why economists are working with such a confusing concept.</p>
<p><a href="http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/lets-have-little-chat-about-inflation.html" rel="nofollow">http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/lets-have-little-chat-about-inflation.html</a></p>
<p>Here&#39;s a slice of Ben Bernanke&#39;s speech at the Economic Club of New York today where he talks about inflation:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121120a.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121120a.htm</a><br />
<br />
&quot;As is often the case, inflation has been pushed up and down in recent years by fluctuations in the price of crude oil and other globally traded commodities, including the increase in farm prices brought on by this summer&#39;s drought. But with longer-term inflation expectations remaining stable, the ebbs and flows in commodity prices have had only transitory effects on inflation. Indeed, since the recovery began about three years ago, consumer price inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, has averaged almost exactly 2 percent, which is the FOMC&#39;s longer-run objective for inflation. Because ongoing slack in labor and product markets should continue to restrain wage and price increases, and with the public&#39;s inflation expectations continuing to be well anchored, inflation over the next few years is likely to remain close to or a little below the Committee&#39;s objective.&quot;</p>
<p>Why is a central banker talking about the weather?</p>
<p>Well because he&#39;s decided that monetary policy should be largely about inflation. And by &quot;inflation&quot; he means the personal consumption expenditures price index. Which is to say he&#39;s worried about the cost of living. But the cost of living is a question of supply shocks (drought) and the real purchasing power of wages. Exactly the things monetary policy can&#39;t control. So you get a lot of hemming and hawing about whether inflation expectations are &quot;well anchored&quot; and stuff about core inflation and discussions of droughts in monetary policy speeches. And they teach this stuff to kids too. Both the European Central Bank </p>
<p><a href="http://www.ecb.int/ecb/educational/economia/html/index.en.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.ecb.int/ecb/educational/economia/html/index.en.html</a></p>
<p>and the San Francisco Fed </p>
<p><a href="http://www.frbsf.org/education/activities/chairman/" rel="nofollow">http://www.frbsf.org/education/activities/chairman/</a></p>
<p>have monetary policy games on their websites that tell you respond to bad weather with tight money.</p>
<p>The logic is easy enough to understand. Tight money curbs inflation and inflation is high prices and bad weather causes high prices, so clearly we need to fight bad weather with tight money.</p>
<p>In the real world, that makes no sense. Monetary policy is about nominal problems. Bad weather is a paradigmatic real problem. &quot;High prices&quot; is an ordinary language word that&#39;s ambiguous between a nominal issue and a real issue. But &quot;inflation&quot; is supposed to be an economist&#39;s term of art. Yet instead of using it like a term of art—something with a precise meaning that distinguishes between real and nominal issues—it&#39;s used as a synonym for &quot;higher prices.&quot; But this invites confusion. High compared to what? Common sense says compared to your ability to afford them. Seventy years ago cars were expensive luxury goods and today nobody can afford to pay a doctor to make a house call. This is a mangling of the concept of inflation, but no more so than talking about the weather in a monetary policy speech.<br />
<br />
The thing that people dislike is when nominal consumer prices rise faster than nominal incomes. It&#39;s not difficult to understand why people dislike that, and it&#39;s exactly the kind of thing that bad weather does cause. But if central bankers want the public to understand what they&#39;re doing, they have to take more care in their own dialogue to distinguish between nominal issues and real scarcity.&quot;</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d73b71970b2012-11-21T17:11:22Z2012-11-21T17:11:22ZanneFrom policy about the Middle East that has allowed us to be directly and indirectly caught in 11 years of...<p>From policy about the Middle East that has allowed us to be directly and indirectly caught in 11 years of war, to policy in the Pacific where President Obama seems to think that China can be stopped from sending fishing boats to the South China Sea, yes, we crazily wish we could control the South China Sea, we have a foreign policy that is strategically impossible.</p>Mark A. Sadowski commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57aadce970d2012-11-21T17:05:14Z2012-11-21T17:05:14ZMark A. Sadowskihttp://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-biggest-myth-about-fed.html November 20, 2012 The Biggest Myth About the Fed By David Beckworth "There many myths about Fed policy over...<p><a href="http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-biggest-myth-about-fed.html" rel="nofollow">http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-biggest-myth-about-fed.html</a></p>
<p>November 20, 2012</p>
<p>The Biggest Myth About the Fed<br />
By David Beckworth</p>
<p>&quot;There many myths about Fed policy over the past few years, but the biggest one has to be that the Fed has been monetizing the national debt. This simply is not true, but it does not stop some folks from making this claim. For example, at last week&#39;s Cato Monetary Conference we find former Fed officials pounding the Fed-is-monetizing-the-debt drums:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/11/monetary-policy-2" rel="nofollow">http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/11/monetary-policy-2</a></p>
<p>&quot;Mr Warsh and Mr Poole (who was filling in for Allan Meltzer) made a sharp distinction between the “legitimate” efforts to fight the crisis and the subsequent easing actions that were, allegedly, unjustified by the economic fundamentals. According to them, the interventions of 2007-2009 were required to ensure that “the markets could clear”, as Mr Warsh put it, while the second round of easing was done to satisfy “political masters” by monetising the debt. In fact, Mr Warsh said that the Fed was being actively unhelpful by “crowding in” Congress’s supposedly poor policy choices.&quot; </p>
<p>My first response is how can they can say this with historically-low U.S. treasury yields </p>
<p><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=cZm" rel="nofollow">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=cZm</a></p>
<p>and muted inflation expectations? </p>
<p><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=cZn" rel="nofollow">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=cZn</a></p>
<p>Surely, if the Fed were truly monetizing the debt we would be seeing a 1970s-repeat in the bond market, but we are not. And this is happening, in part, because the Fed is not that big of a treasury purchaser. Consider the figure below. It shows the Fed&#39;s stock of treasuries by remaining maturity compared to the total stock of marketable treasuries as of the end of October, 2012. Though the Fed&#39;s share of treasuries increases by remaining maturity, at most it hits 32% of the total for 10-30 years category. That means that after many months of Operation Twist that roughly 68% of long-term treasuries are still held outside the Fed. Overall, the Fed holds about 15% of marketable treasuries as seen in the &quot;All Years&quot; category. It is hard to square these numbers with the allegations that the Fed is monetizing the debt.</p>
<p><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rYDUTL02bbk/UKv43GQ3xoI/AAAAAAAACn8/l0YYkfQYK5E/s1600/feddebt.jpg" rel="nofollow">http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rYDUTL02bbk/UKv43GQ3xoI/AAAAAAAACn8/l0YYkfQYK5E/s1600/feddebt.jpg</a></p>
<p>Some commentators like to focus on the change in treasury holdings in 2011 because it sounds so scary. Here is Arnold Kling:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.american.com/archive/2012/november/lenders-and-spenders-confronting-the-political-reality-of-debt" rel="nofollow">http://www.american.com/archive/2012/november/lenders-and-spenders-confronting-the-political-reality-of-debt</a></p>
<p>&quot;In 2011, the Federal Reserve bought 77 percent of new debt issued by our government. We are already resorting to inflationary finance.&quot;</p>
<p>While the Fed did purchase a large share of new treasuries in 2011, these purchases only returned the Fed&#39;s share of total marketable treasuries to its pre-crisis level as seen below. Again, not exactly a picture of debt monetization.</p>
<p><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3H3V3-t2y64/UKvh9B7q5RI/AAAAAAAACno/xtaEi33bEqg/s1600/fed+share.jpg" rel="nofollow">http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3H3V3-t2y64/UKvh9B7q5RI/AAAAAAAACno/xtaEi33bEqg/s1600/fed+share.jpg</a></p>
<p>So stop accusing the Fed of monetizing the debt and enabling the large budget deficits. And stop blaming the Fed for the long decline in treasury yields. If anything, blame the Fed for allowing treasury interest rates to fall, but that is a different story.&quot;</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e05ada0970c2012-11-21T16:59:45Z2012-11-21T16:59:45ZanneAlso, for all the urban growth, China has a vast rural population which suggests long continued urban growth but also...<p>Also, for all the urban growth, China has a vast rural population which suggests long continued urban growth but also tells of the strength of rural political-economic interests. India needs to look to the strength of rural China as a model, so to Brazil and especially South Africa.</p>Mark A. Sadowski commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57aa55e970d2012-11-21T16:59:24Z2012-11-21T16:59:24ZMark A. Sadowskihttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/bernanke-says-fiscal-cliff-fix-may-bring-very-good-year.html November 20, 2012 Bernanke Says Fiscal Cliff Fix May Bring ‘Very Good’ Year By Joshua Zumbrun and Caroline Salas...<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/bernanke-says-fiscal-cliff-fix-may-bring-very-good-year.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/bernanke-says-fiscal-cliff-fix-may-bring-very-good-year.html</a></p>
<p>November 20, 2012</p>
<p>Bernanke Says Fiscal Cliff Fix May Bring ‘Very Good’ Year<br />
By Joshua Zumbrun and Caroline Salas Gage </p>
<p>&quot;Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said an agreement on ways to reduce long-term federal budget deficits could remove an impediment to growth, while failure to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff would pose a “substantial threat” to the recovery. </p>
<p>“There’s important potential for the economy to strengthen significantly if there’s a greater level of security and confidence about where we’re going,” he said today to the Economic Club of New York. “A plan for resolving the nation’s longer-term budgetary issues without harming the recovery could help make the new year a very good one for the American economy.” </p>
<p>Bernanke, 58, identified the threat of $607 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect next year as one of the impediments to a faster expansion as companies hold back on hiring and investment. The Fed chief repeated his warning a failure to reach an agreement could send the economy “toppling back into recession.” </p>
<p>The central bank is buying $40 billion in housing debt each month and has pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate near zero through mid-2015 as it seeks to spur growth and reduce a 7.9 percent jobless rate. </p>
<p>“We’re going to do what we can to support ongoing recovery in growth and jobs and create the demand for output, the demand for firms’ products that will remove that uncertainty about the future sustainability of the recovery,” Bernanke said...&quot;</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d72821970b2012-11-21T16:56:26Z2012-11-21T16:56:26ZanneI'm a big fan of vicious, unfair, and dishonest commentary so I'll just have to hope you get around to...<p>I&#39;m a big fan of vicious, unfair, and dishonest commentary so I&#39;ll just have to hope you get around to it....</p>
<p>[ Nice.</p>
<p>As for rural China, the Chinese leadership is always but always aware of how critically important rural China is to continued development and indeed to national stability. This has been historically the case as Mao understood so well.</p>
<p>Rural development in China really drove urban development, but this was overlooked by many Western analysts. Look to rural hard and soft infrastructure development as a measure of Chinese well-being and potential. ]</p>Mark A. Sadowski commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d726ca970b2012-11-21T16:55:29Z2012-11-21T16:55:29ZMark A. Sadowskihttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/11/21/central-bank-independence-under-fire-in-japan/?mod=WSJBlog November 21, 2012 Central Bank Independence Under Fire in Japan By Neal Lipschutz "There have been rumblings on the...<p><a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/11/21/central-bank-independence-under-fire-in-japan/?mod=WSJBlog" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/11/21/central-bank-independence-under-fire-in-japan/?mod=WSJBlog</a></p>
<p>November 21, 2012</p>
<p>Central Bank Independence Under Fire in Japan<br />
By Neal Lipschutz </p>
<p>&quot;There have been rumblings on the issue in the U.S., but Japan may be headed for a much more decisive test of what happens to an economy if central bank autonomy over monetary policy disappears.</p>
<p>Ironically, the presumed results of higher inflation and a weaker currency might just be the short-term remedy for Japan, which is stuck in a deflationary, low-growth rut. But that is decidedly short term. In the longer run, the loss of central bank independence can undermine domestic and global confidence in an economy, hurting investment, savings and more.</p>
<p>A recap of Japan’s situation from Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal: The opposition Liberal Democratic Party, which at this point is leading in the parliamentary election campaign that culminates in a Dec. 16 vote, has made central banking a “defining issue.”...&quot;</p>NKlein1553 commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e05a477970c2012-11-21T16:52:09Z2012-11-21T16:52:09ZNKlein1553I'm a big fan of vicous, unfair, and dishonest commentary so I'll just have to hope you get around to...<p>I&#39;m a big fan of vicous, unfair, and dishonest commentary so I&#39;ll just have to hope you get around to it.</p>
<p>I agree the sections dealing with policy focused on rural China were the best and thought that dividing China&#39;s development strategies into different time periods was a good way to frame the analysis. That&#39;s about all though.</p>
<p>Happy holidays.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d72280970b2012-11-21T16:51:51Z2012-11-21T16:51:51Zannehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/world/asia/southeast-asian-nations-announce-trade-bloc-to-rival-us-effort.html?ref=world November 20, 2012 Asian Nations Plan Trade Bloc That, Unlike U.S.’s, Invites China By JANE PERLEZ PHNOM PENH, Cambodia...<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/world/asia/southeast-asian-nations-announce-trade-bloc-to-rival-us-effort.html?ref=world" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/world/asia/southeast-asian-nations-announce-trade-bloc-to-rival-us-effort.html?ref=world</a></p>
<p>November 20, 2012</p>
<p>Asian Nations Plan Trade Bloc That, Unlike U.S.’s, Invites China<br />
By JANE PERLEZ</p>
<p>PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — Ten Southeast Asian nations said Tuesday that they would begin negotiating a sweeping trade pact that would include China and five of the region’s other major trading partners, but not the United States.</p>
<p>The proposal for the new trade bloc, to be known as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, is enthusiastically embraced by China. The founding members, who belong to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, said at the close of the association’s summit meeting here that the bloc would cover nearly half of the world’s population, starting in 2015.</p>
<p>The new grouping is seen as a rival to a trade initiative of the Obama administration, the 11-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes many of the same countries but excludes China....</p>
<p>[ The sheer craziness of American foreign policy, which would try to exclude China and 1.4 billion Chinese people from Asia. ]</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d71d56970b2012-11-21T16:47:37Z2012-11-21T16:47:37ZFred C. DobbsAnyway, for US, earned-income credits are supposed to suffice, and a minimum-wage pegged at one-third of poverty-level income is just...<p>Anyway, for US, earned-income credits are<br />
supposed to suffice, and a minimum-wage<br />
pegged at one-third of poverty-level<br />
income is just about right, eh what?</p>
<p>Need more income? Go create an app.</p>
<p>As Boom Lures App Creators, Tough <br />
Part Is Making a Living <a href="http://nyti.ms/UMO8kN" rel="nofollow">http://nyti.ms/UMO8kN</a></p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e059575970c2012-11-21T16:40:01Z2012-11-21T16:40:01ZFred C. Dobbs'Kurtzarbeit' is (as it sounds) 'suspiciously European', nicht wahr? Therefore, we aren't going to do that here. What, would 'works...<p>&#39;Kurtzarbeit&#39; is (as it sounds)<br />
&#39;suspiciously European&#39;, nicht wahr?</p>
<p>Therefore, we aren&#39;t going to do that<br />
here. What, would &#39;works councils&#39;<br />
be next?</p>
<p>Obviously, whatever you guys do, we<br />
are going to do the exact opposite. </p>
<p>So, &#39;part-time hours + reduced-benefits&#39;<br />
will do nicely for US, thanks awfully.</p>
<p>In lieu of guv&#39;mint support payments<br />
for reduced income, do consider getting<br />
additional part-time employment. Self-<br />
sufficiency is always our goal!</p>Edward Lambert commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a7948970d2012-11-21T16:25:45Z2012-11-21T16:25:45ZEdward LambertUT update: Referring to my post last night... here is the link http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2012/11/compensation-growth-and-slack-in-the-current-economic-environment.html#comment-6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e02211e970c The numbers for UT during 2005 to...<p>UT update:<br />
Referring to my post last night... here is the link</p>
<p><a href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2012/11/compensation-growth-and-slack-in-the-current-economic-environment.html#comment-6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e02211e970c" rel="nofollow">http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2012/11/compensation-growth-and-slack-in-the-current-economic-environment.html#comment-6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e02211e970c</a></p>
<p>The numbers for UT during 2005 to 2008 showed that the UT dropped to 0.5 like 3 times in that stretch. It may be that the equation is a little off now and needs an adjustment. The equation is less than one week old, you know.</p>
<p>This would be the new equation...</p>
<p>UT = u - cu + 0.925 * ls - 16</p>
<p>I changed the last number from -15.5 to -16. This change would signify that we are even closer to the zero lower bound of UT right now. <br />
I was thinking we were 2.4% away. We could be 1.9% away, which means we have even less room to maneuver the economy.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e057fae970c2012-11-21T16:23:32Z2012-11-21T16:23:32ZFred C. DobbsFred thinks 'most wage earners want part time hours'. Not hardly, although Mrs Fred does just that, most happily. What...<p>Fred thinks &#39;most wage earners <br />
want part time hours&#39;.</p>
<p>Not hardly, although Mrs Fred<br />
does just that, most happily.</p>
<p>What is wanted: fewer hours at<br />
higher pay, so earnings are<br />
unchanged (at worst), and <br />
more people are employed.</p>
<p>Obviously, decoupling health<br />
benefits from employment is<br />
also an important goal.</p>
<p>We just have to &#39;go European&#39;,<br />
n&#39;est-ce pas?</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a5dd9970d2012-11-21T16:05:03Z2012-11-21T16:05:03Zannehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/israel-gaza-us-support November 21, 2012 The 'both-sides-are-awful' dismissal of Gaza ignores the key role of the US government The temptation to...<p><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/israel-gaza-us-support" rel="nofollow">http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/israel-gaza-us-support</a></p>
<p>November 21, 2012</p>
<p>The &#39;both-sides-are-awful&#39; dismissal of Gaza ignores the key role of the US government<br />
The temptation to wash one&#39;s hands of the whole conflict is understandable, but US support of Israel is a central force driving it all<br />
By Glenn Greenwald -Guardian</p>
<p>Just consider the actions of the US over the last week as violence in Gaza escalated. On Tuesday, the US vetoed a UN Security Council cease-fire resolution on the ground, in essence, that it was too balanced. The US State Department publicly attacked its Nato ally, Turkey, for condemning Israeli aggression....</p>
<p><a href="http://www.democracynow.org/2012/11/21/headlines#11211" rel="nofollow">http://www.democracynow.org/2012/11/21/headlines#11211</a></p>
<p>November 21, 2012</p>
<p>Clinton Visits West Bank; U.S. Blocks Resolution on Gaza Conflict<br />
By Amy Goodman</p>
<p>Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is meeting with Palestinian officials in the West Bank today, but will not be going to Gaza. On Tuesday, the Obama administration blocked a U.N. Security Council resolution on the Gaza conflict, saying it failed to address the root cause of Palestinian rocket fire.<br />
</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a4928970d2012-11-21T15:49:44Z2012-11-21T15:49:44ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgHere if you're subsequently re employed but only part time you can collet UE Of course earnings are used to...<p>Here if you&#39;re subsequently re employed but only part time you can collet UE<br />
Of course earnings are used to off set pay out <br />
Which is gobble Dee gook think</p>
<p>Reward a rehire more then fully not less</p>
<p>Always the prudish fear of gaming </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a42af970d2012-11-21T15:44:42Z2012-11-21T15:44:42ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgAgreed A tribute to anne's honesty In fact Noticing that she sticks to her guns so long she's a lagging...<p>Agreed</p>
<p>A tribute to anne&#39;s honesty<br />
<br />
In fact<br />
Noticing that she sticks to her guns so long <br />
she&#39;s a lagging indicator<br />
should not over look<br />
The virtue of loyalty and stoutness this reveals<br />
Once anne&#39;s on your team <br />
you got a fierce partner </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a3d1e970d2012-11-21T15:40:30Z2012-11-21T15:40:30ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgNo I just haven't gotten around to interlarding my vicious unfair and highly dishonest ...marginal notes Upshot Tubby Tim waddles...<p>No</p>
<p>I just haven&#39;t gotten around to interlarding my vicious unfair and highly dishonest ...marginal notes</p>
<p><br />
Upshot</p>
<p>Tubby Tim waddles around to no useful pulse<br />
He can&#39;t seem to shape the papers purport</p>
<p>The best one seems to be about the rural rise after the deng reforms </p>
<p>It however has a clear sinofriedmanesque slant </p>
<p>I&#39;m both lazy and undisciplined so I may never get around to carving that turkey<br />
To use a seasonal figure </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d6c0a8970b2012-11-21T15:36:13Z2012-11-21T15:36:13ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgWhat ever it's age We hu-apes are browning her out Let's concentrate on getting the bible followers to read the...<p>What ever it&#39;s age <br />
We hu-apes are browning her out </p>
<p>Let&#39;s concentrate on getting the bible followers to read the passages there<br />
That suggest spoilage leads to gods wrath <br />
As I read the scriptural accounts<br />
Noah is a tale with multiple implications<br />
Un like sodom </p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d6c03d970b2012-11-21T15:35:54Z2012-11-21T15:35:54ZDarryl FKA RonAnswering falsely to avoid losing votes is what politics is all about.<p>Answering falsely to avoid losing votes is what politics is all about.</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a33f9970d2012-11-21T15:33:13Z2012-11-21T15:33:13ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgFrankly I find this laffing at the naked apes and their superstitions No substitute for trying to change the system...<p>Frankly I find this laffing at the naked apes and their superstitions<br />
No substitute for trying to change the system thru a popular front that must to succeed include these pale faced yahoos in part </p>
<p>The liberal enlightens can show just as much distain for the bottom half<br />
as the romneyites eh ?</p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a330e970d2012-11-21T15:32:33Z2012-11-21T15:32:33ZDarryl FKA Ronits all impossible anyway just a stretching exercise for your policy mind [Good caveat. THANKS! Should not be taken implicitly...<p>its all impossible anyway<br />
just a stretching exercise for your policy mind </p>
<p>[Good caveat. THANKS! Should not be taken implicitly because the politically possible may not remain a null set as long as it will remain insufficient for our preferences.]</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d6b9be970b2012-11-21T15:30:45Z2012-11-21T15:30:45ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgNone of this including the harts mountain canary food reforms are pro wage earner Or even neutral They long term...<p>None of this including the harts mountain canary food reforms are pro wage earner<br />
Or even neutral <br />
They long term impact will be lower wages as the systems learn to sustain long intervals of ..if not jobless ness<br />
Then under employment </p>
<p>Fred may think most wage earners want part time hours <br />
But he needs to talk this over with them </p>
<p>I myself would gaudily work two days a week for two thirds of the year<br />
But most wage earners simply want more income and would gladly trade leisure for pay</p>
<p>Job rationing increases the rate of exploitation<br />
Yes the present low utlization cycle that we call our free market job system <br />
produces less output over time then kalecki vickrey system would produce<br />
With it&#39;s higher and steadier rates of mobilization</p>
<p>But the capitalists seem on the whole to believe their profits are higher this way </p>
<p>The usual catalysts versus wage earners games display incomplete results here as I understand </p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e053138970c2012-11-21T15:26:05Z2012-11-21T15:26:05ZDarryl FKA RonWonderful for the searcher to find their epiphany.<p>Wonderful for the searcher to find their epiphany.</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d6b184970b2012-11-21T15:24:21Z2012-11-21T15:24:21ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgPerfect over view Get the pun<p>Perfect over view</p>
<p>Get the pun </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e052e0a970c2012-11-21T15:23:31Z2012-11-21T15:23:31ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgAs described by dean We have such a mechanism here in mass Not co ordinated with employers or trumpeted of...<p>As described by dean <br />
We have such a mechanism here in mass</p>
<p>Not co ordinated with employers or trumpeted of course<br />
And it requires a lay off to start the ball rolling </p>
<p>Ie you must have an indecent interval of job less ness<br />
Obviously the old ways can&#39;t be abandoned with one rational blow </p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d6aa50970b2012-11-21T15:19:20Z2012-11-21T15:19:20Zannehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life Scientific evidence suggests that life began on Earth approximately 3.5 billion years ago.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_Earth The age of the Earth...<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life</a></p>
<p>Scientific evidence suggests that life began on Earth approximately 3.5 billion years ago....</p>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_Earth" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_Earth</a></p>
<p>The age of the Earth is 4.54 ± 0.05 billion years (4.54 × 109 years ± 1%)....</p>
<p>Simple, and the slightest thought of the Grand Canyon and animals and plants that have lived about it would tell us so.</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e05281b970c2012-11-21T15:19:09Z2012-11-21T15:19:09ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgLabor market rigidity is pig Latin for no wage rate cuts<p>Labor market rigidity is pig Latin for no wage rate cuts </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e0526a0970c2012-11-21T15:18:03Z2012-11-21T15:18:03ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgThe IMF wants lay offs Nothing like the sack to shatter solidarity And open up the wages system to "readjustments"...<p>The IMF wants lay offs <br />
Nothing like the sack to shatter solidarity <br />
And open up the wages system to &quot;readjustments&quot;</p>
<p>A fact ?</p>
<p>Not demonstrated but<br />
The IMF likes the old tried ways even if not true </p>
<p>Btw<br />
Mass has a part timers unemployment comp plan in place</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a1d36970d2012-11-21T15:15:32Z2012-11-21T15:15:32ZanneAnswering falsely to avoid losing votes is what lacking courage or integrity is all about. The earth is billions of...<p>Answering falsely to avoid losing votes is what lacking courage or integrity is all about.</p>
<p>The earth is billions of years old, life extends for hundreds of millions of years at least (I think far more than a billion years actually and will look for an answer in a while). That is a truthful answer for any, I mean any, person of education and integrity and courage.</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e051671970c2012-11-21T15:05:35Z2012-11-21T15:05:35ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgU got that right<p>U got that right </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d696d6970b2012-11-21T15:05:00Z2012-11-21T15:05:00ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgExactly Uncle as enabler of a broader credit fueled free enterprise system of market entry<p>Exactly<br />
Uncle as enabler of a broader credit fueled free enterprise system of market entry </p>Observer commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a0dc5970d2012-11-21T15:03:49Z2012-11-21T15:03:49ZObserverHmm ... "complete fool or rather completely intimidated"? My guess is that both guys were just avoiding giving an answer...<p>Hmm ... &quot;complete fool or rather completely intimidated&quot;? My guess is that both guys were just avoiding giving an answer that going to lose some votes. Of course, that doesn&#39;t advance the Democratic political narrative. </p>
<p>&quot;And here&#39;s then-Sen. Obama, D-Ill., speaking at the Compassion Forum at Messiah College in Grantham, Pa. on April 13, 2008:</p>
<p>Q: Senator, if one of your daughters asked you—and maybe they already have—“Daddy, did god really create the world in 6 days?,” what would you say?</p>
<p>A: What I&#39;ve said to them is that I believe that God created the universe and that the six days in the Bible may not be six days as we understand it … it may not be 24-hour days, and that&#39;s what I believe. I know there&#39;s always a debate between those who read the Bible literally and those who don&#39;t, and I think it&#39;s a legitimate debate within the Christian community of which I&#39;m a part. My belief is that the story that the Bible tells about God creating this magnificent Earth on which we live—that is essentially true, that is fundamentally true. Now, whether it happened exactly as we might understand it reading the text of the Bible: That, I don&#39;t presume to know.&quot;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2012/11/rubio_and_obama_and_the_age_of_earth_politicians_hedge_about_whether_universe.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2012/11/rubio_and_obama_and_the_age_of_earth_politicians_hedge_about_whether_universe.html</a></p>Paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a0d31970d2012-11-21T15:03:25Z2012-11-21T15:03:25ZPainehttp://Stopmebeforeivoteagain.orgGod bless you<p>God bless you </p>david commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee57a0006970d2012-11-21T14:54:23Z2012-11-21T14:54:23ZdavidIt's this that Baker is skipping over: "they could be bypassed institutionally" Small business and infrastructure lending both can be...<p>It&#39;s this that Baker is skipping over: &quot;they could be bypassed institutionally&quot;</p>
<p>Small business and infrastructure lending both can be brought outside the profiteer banking system while being sold as good old fashioned american private sector ingenuity. This would be a good thing.</p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e04e99b970c2012-11-21T14:31:59Z2012-11-21T14:31:59Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/we need hours flex max more short hour weeks and less total life time job hours is part of social...<p>we need hours flex max<br />
more short hour weeks <br />
and less total life time job hours <br />
is part of social progress</p>
<p><br />
they are trying to say <br />
the full week of hours<br />
is not trending out of existence </p>
<p>flex hours don&#39;t mean less hours or more hours</p>
<p>perhaps <br />
once fringe benefits are pro rated<br />
the incentives one way or other will rationalize </p>
<p>but regardles <br />
social welfare max here<br />
requires job holder joint control <br />
of the process <br />
and job holder friendly use of the process </p>
<p> what we got now is<br />
hours flex meets profits reflex <br />
and that equals added misery </p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e04d4df970c2012-11-21T14:16:30Z2012-11-21T14:16:30Zanneyou have every reason to fear the Clinton era Rubinites still running the central elements of the D-bat Party [...<p>you have every reason to fear the Clinton era Rubinites still running the central elements<br />
of the D-bat Party </p>
<p>[ The conservatism, even arch-conservatism, of Clinton era advisers is shocking to me. I never understood this, and thought for while the conservatism was limited to selected advisers only to find it increasingly widespread and finally seemingly engulfing. ]</p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee579cbab970d2012-11-21T14:15:47Z2012-11-21T14:15:47Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/i'm surprised at this post they should and do know better the real un addressed problem is not just the...<p>i&#39;m surprised at this post</p>
<p>they should and do know better </p>
<p> the real un addressed problem is not just<br />
the precarity of full time work <br />
its the precarity of scheduled work <br />
in its entirety </p>
<p>the squeeze and shake at our big box retail is a great example<br />
of soft wear empowering nickle and dime <br />
hours shaving by corporate giants <br />
add in the soft wear enabling &quot;corporate &quot;<br />
theft of earnings </p>
<p>--believe me they are all laced together<br />
in one big wage buster algorithm complex---</p>
<p><br />
no this post is a typical inside the union bunker <br />
group think group stink </p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee579c4e3970d2012-11-21T14:11:35Z2012-11-21T14:11:35Zanneno, I prefer using the transfer system creating jobs thru standard increases in household demand [ Simple and necessary, the...<p>no, I prefer using the transfer system creating jobs thru standard increases in household demand </p>
<p>[ Simple and necessary, the rest being hard and soft, electrical grid to education, infrastructure development. ]</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee579bea9970d2012-11-21T14:07:00Z2012-11-21T14:07:00Zannehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/israel-gaza-us-support November 21, 2012 The 'both-sides-are-awful' dismissal of Gaza ignores the key role of the US government The temptation to...<p><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/israel-gaza-us-support" rel="nofollow">http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/israel-gaza-us-support</a></p>
<p>November 21, 2012</p>
<p>The &#39;both-sides-are-awful&#39; dismissal of Gaza ignores the key role of the US government<br />
The temptation to wash one&#39;s hands of the whole conflict is understandable, but US support of Israel is a central force driving it all<br />
By Glenn Greenwald -Guardian</p>
<p>But for two independent reasons, this reasoning, understandable though it may be, depends upon patent fictions, and is thus invalid. The first reason, which I will mention only briefly, is that there is not equality between the two sides.</p>
<p>As my Guardian colleague Seumas Milne superbly detailed in his column Tuesday night, the overarching fact of this conflict is that the Palestinians, for decades now, have been brutally occupied, blockaded, humiliated, deprived of the most basic human rights of statehood and autonomy though the continuous application of brute, lawless force (for that reason, those who like to righteously condemn Hamas&#39; rockets (Pierce, defending Obama; &quot;he happened to be correct the other day. No country can tolerate the bombing of its citizens&quot;) have the obligation to state what form of legitimate resistance Palestinians have to all of this). Moreover, as these clear numbers from the Economist demonstrate, the violence and carnage so disproportionately harm the Palestinians that to suggest some form of equivalence between the two sides borders on the obscene.</p>
<p>But the second reason, to me, is even clearer. The government which Americans fund and elect, and for which they thus bear at least some responsibility, is anything but neutral in this conflict. That government - certainly including the Democratic Party - is categorically, uncritically, and unfailingly on the side of Israel in every respect when it comes to violence and oppression against the Palestinians.</p>
<p>For years now, US financial, military and diplomatic support of Israel has been the central enabling force driving this endless conflict. The bombs Israel drops on Gazans, and the planes they use to drop them, and the weapons they use to occupy the West Bank and protect settlements are paid for, in substantial part, by the US taxpayer, and those actions are shielded from recrimination by the UN veto power aggressively wielded in Israel&#39;s favor by the US government. As the excellent Israeli writer Noam Sheizaf put it on Chris Hayes&#39; MSNBC program this weekend:</p>
<p> &quot;Ultimately, the status quo is the solution from the perspective of [the Netanyahu] government. . . . . There&#39;s no incentive for the current [Israeli] political leadership to move from it, especially with the free hand it gets from the world and from the United States.&quot;</p>
<p>Just consider the actions of the US over the last week as violence in Gaza escalated. On Tuesday, the US vetoed a UN Security Council cease-fire resolution on the ground, in essence, that it was too balanced. The US State Department publicly attacked its Nato ally, Turkey, for condemning Israeli aggression. As always, the US Congress and the US Executive Branch are virtually unanimous in their full-throated, completely one-sided support for Israeli actions....</p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee579bcd6970d2012-11-21T14:05:24Z2012-11-21T14:05:24Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/we need to return to our pre WWII national security policy pre munich hoax "sell out" pre pearl harbor "we...<p>we need to return to our pre WWII national security policy </p>
<p>pre munich hoax &quot;sell out&quot; <br />
pre pearl harbor &quot;we were asking for it&quot; infamy </p>
<p> back to the very broad <br />
smedley butler to bob taft axis </p>
<p>no racing around the planet <br />
in search of monsters to destroy </p>
<p>let the UN call on us to perform our share of the burdens of global security </p>
<p>and keep an eye on.... canada </p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e04c144970c2012-11-21T14:00:45Z2012-11-21T14:00:45Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/no insist on 1% like Japan<p>no insist on 1% like Japan </p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee579b4f5970d2012-11-21T14:00:03Z2012-11-21T14:00:03Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/orszagism<p>orszagism </p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee579b48b970d2012-11-21T13:59:49Z2012-11-21T13:59:49Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/you have every reason to fear the clinton era rubinites still running the central elements of the D-bat party<p> you have every reason to fear the clinton era rubinites still running the central elements<br />
of the D-bat party </p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee579b1f0970d2012-11-21T13:57:53Z2012-11-21T13:57:53Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/no not the usurping agricorps that grab most of uncle's largesse in that sector<p>no not the usurping agricorps <br />
that grab most of uncle&#39;s largesse<br />
in that sector </p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d63710970b2012-11-21T13:56:17Z2012-11-21T13:56:17Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/look at our family farm sector as a model<p>look at our family farm sector as a model </p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee579af68970d2012-11-21T13:55:49Z2012-11-21T13:55:49Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/the petty bourgeoisie can be friendly to a state that loans them money<p>the petty bourgeoisie can be friendly<br />
to a state that loans them money </p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee579ae88970d2012-11-21T13:55:08Z2012-11-21T13:55:08Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/yes this would be a credit channel one of miskins 9 billfold ways but its in the end a profoundly...<p>yes<br />
this would be a credit channel<br />
one of miskins 9 billfold ways <br />
but its in the end<br />
a profoundly anti profiteer banker<br />
use of the credit channel </p>
<p>why ?</p>
<p>because they could be by passed institutionally </p>
<p>oh ya it weakens the default proofing<br />
of<br />
some of their own small bizz loans </p>
<p>fine drive em out of that bizz </p>
<p>its just like student loans or health insurance really </p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e04b57f970c2012-11-21T13:52:12Z2012-11-21T13:52:12Zannehttp://www.voxeu.org/article/macroeconomic-adjustment-and-history-crises-open-economies November 21, 2012 Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economies By Joshua Aizenman and Ilan Noy...<p><a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/macroeconomic-adjustment-and-history-crises-open-economies" rel="nofollow">http://www.voxeu.org/article/macroeconomic-adjustment-and-history-crises-open-economies</a></p>
<p>November 21, 2012</p>
<p>Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economies<br />
By Joshua Aizenman and Ilan Noy</p>
<p>A possible explanation for our failure to detect a learning process from past banking crises is that regulators and policymakers are learning, but at a speed that does not catch up with the dynamic evolution of modern banking. The regulator is frequently preparing to prevent the last crisis, and not the future one. as the contours of future vulnerabilities are fuzzy. In these circumstances, a possible remedy may call for slowing down the diffusion of financial innovations, treating them as risky until proven otherwise. This cautious attitude may call for more stringent leverage and reserve ratios, and blocking the introduction of financial innovations that may be ‘too clever by half’ for users and for regulators. Too big to fail?</p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e04b2fe970c2012-11-21T13:50:26Z2012-11-21T13:50:26Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/now we have two things to disagree about dean's attack on the over paid cometition protected health sector in particular...<p>now we have two things to disagree about</p>
<p>dean&#39;s attack on the over paid cometition protected health sector in particular the doctors and now his indirect call for protection of existing shop keepers </p>
<p>yes he is inconsistent like me <br />
he&#39;s just wrong on both fronts </p>
<p>we need a job class professional class alliance<br />
and we need a progressive answer to the phoney pandering to betty the plumber <br />
and joe the decorator </p>
<p>the start up fantasy is really american <br />
and in partricular old tech <br />
low tech no tech start ups </p>
<p>one huge draw back</p>
<p>the wind fall commercial landlord bonanza </p>
<p>requires some keen tax surcharging <br />
why not <br />
its all impossible anyway<br />
just a stretching exercise for your policy mind </p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee579a618970d2012-11-21T13:48:45Z2012-11-21T13:48:45Zannehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/israel-gaza-us-support November 21, 2012 The 'both-sides-are-awful' dismissal of Gaza ignores the key role of the US government The temptation to...<p><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/israel-gaza-us-support" rel="nofollow">http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/israel-gaza-us-support</a></p>
<p>November 21, 2012</p>
<p>The &#39;both-sides-are-awful&#39; dismissal of Gaza ignores the key role of the US government<br />
The temptation to wash one&#39;s hands of the whole conflict is understandable, but US support of Israel is a central force driving it all<br />
By Glenn Greenwald -Guardian</p>
<p>Everything about the Israeli/Palestinian conflict follows the same pattern over and over, including the reaction of Americans. In the first couple of days after a new round of violence breaks out, there is intense interest and passion, which is quickly replaced by weariness, irritation, and even anger that one has to be bothered by this never-ending, always-ugly and seemingly irresolvable conflict. These sentiments then morph into an attempt to separate oneself from the entire matter by declaring both sides to be equally horrendous and thus washing one&#39;s hands from any responsibility for thinking further about it (&quot;I&#39;m sick of both sides&quot;), followed by recriminations against anyone who actually has an opinion that is more supportive of one side than the other.</p>
<p>Esquire&#39;s Charles Pierce, one of the nation&#39;s best political writers, provided a classic case of this mindset yesterday in his post entitled &quot;There Is No Side Worth Taking In Gaza&quot;. The crux: &quot;I would like to have an opinion on this continual bloodletting that didn&#39;t sound banal but, goddammit, I&#39;m out of them. I am thoroughly sick of both sides here.&quot; One encounters a version of this mentality with increasing frequency each day that the violence escalates.</p>
<p>This temptation is genuinely understandable. Few things are more depressing than paying attention to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. The carnage and mutual hatred seem infinite. The arguments are so repetitive and fruitless. As is true in all wars, including those depicted in pleasing good-vs-evil terms, atrocities end up being committed by all sides, leading one to want to disassociate oneself from all parties involved. It is just as untenable to defend the indiscriminate launching by Hamas of projectiles into Israeli neighborhoods as it is to defend the massive air bombing by Israel of what they have turned into an open-air prison that is designed to collectively punish hundreds of thousands of human beings.</p>
<p>Virtually everyone wishes the entire conflict would just go away. With the exception of extremists on both sides who benefit in various ways, nobody relishes having to become involved in any of this. It is exhausting, draining, soul-crushing, and miserable. Embracing &quot;screw-both-sides&quot; nihilism and doing nothing else is so tempting because it appears to provide relief from the burden of paying any further attention to the horrific violence or bearing responsibility for any of it.</p>
<p>But for two independent reasons, this reasoning, understandable though it may be, depends upon patent fictions, and is thus invalid....</p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d62457970b2012-11-21T13:42:40Z2012-11-21T13:42:40Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/sustainability is a joke when we have slack imagine the opportunity a start up[ loan could be to learn to...<p>sustainability is a joke when we have slack </p>
<p>imagine the opportunity a start up[ loan could be<br />
to learn to fail hey even on occasion to make a success </p>
<p>intensify the struggle among petty firms to exist </p>
<p>spencerian macro </p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5799b40970d2012-11-21T13:40:46Z2012-11-21T13:40:46Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/"Friedman also seems to have a bizarre belief that the country will be better off if more people give up...<p>&quot;Friedman also seems to have a bizarre belief that the country will be better off if more people give up good jobs and use their life savings to start businesses that will fail.&quot;</p>
<p>bizarre ?</p>
<p>that was part of what fueled the clinton term II miracle </p>
<p>but where are the loans to come from this time ?</p>
<p> &quot;Friedman has apparently misunderstood research on start-ups, which shows them to be large net job creators. He thinks that more start-ups will therefore mean more jobs.&quot;</p>
<p> it will mean more jobs thru the multiplier </p>
<p> the crowding out ?</p>
<p>with so much job market slack ?</p>
<p>certain job type bottle necks ?</p>
<p>fine a sectoral wage boom </p>
<p></p>
<p>&quot;the marginal start-up that we can induce through more start-up friendly policy is virtually certain to do worse than the average start-up. &quot;</p>
<p>so ?</p>
<p><br />
&quot;If we divert resources from existing businesses to have 50 percent more start-ups, there is no reason to believe that this would increase job growth or improve the economy&#39;s performance, since the overwhelming majority of these start-ups will be out of business in less than a decade. &quot;</p>
<p>divert resources ?</p>
<p>we have slack human resources and all else is just wages prices and trade gaps </p>
<p>all of which either are good right now<br />
or can be handled later with other macro policy moves</p>
<p>i submit a huge rush to BYOB federal SBA insured loans </p>
<p>particularly old tech/low tech start ups<br />
would be just the &quot; wake up &quot; punch <br />
the economy needs </p>
<p><br />
no i prefer using the transfer system creating jobs thru standard increases in household demand </p>
<p>but the small bizz and i mean really small bizz frenzy would be just the petite bourgeois tonic <br />
when great hunks <br />
of our old tech commercial and service economy sectors are flashing morbid symtoms <br />
like a dying reef </p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d614a0970b2012-11-21T13:30:21Z2012-11-21T13:30:21ZDarryl FKA RonRE: "China’s Transition: Three Scenarios" "a key U.S. contribution (toward easing sino-american tensions) would be to increase U.S. national saving...<p>RE: &quot;China’s Transition: Three Scenarios&quot;</p>
<p>&quot;a key U.S. contribution <br />
(toward easing sino-american tensions)<br />
would be to increase U.S. national saving <br />
to reduce our dependence on foreign capital<br />
and thus to narrow our trade deficit.&quot;</p>
<p>this is an MNC remedy <br />
translation&quot;</p>
<p>relative stagnation vis a vis &quot;trading asia&quot; </p>
<p>{Yes sir, that&#39;s the plan.]</p>NKlein1553 commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d60dc2970b2012-11-21T13:25:08Z2012-11-21T13:25:08ZNKlein1553Hey paine, is that an endorsement of Timothy Taylor's article over at your blog? His article strikes me as fairly...<p>Hey paine, is that an endorsement of Timothy Taylor&#39;s article over at your blog? His article strikes me as fairly convincing:</p>
<p><a href="http://earthmart.blogspot.com/2012/11/getting-chinas-miracle-grow-wrong.html" rel="nofollow">http://earthmart.blogspot.com/2012/11/getting-chinas-miracle-grow-wrong.html</a> </p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5798554970d2012-11-21T13:23:53Z2012-11-21T13:23:53ZDarryl FKA RonToday's Crisis in Open Economies link. Regulators playing catch-up A possible explanation for our failure to detect a learning process...<p>Today&#39;s Crisis in Open Economies link.</p>
<p>Regulators playing catch-up</p>
<p>A possible explanation for our failure to detect a learning process from past banking crises is that regulators and policymakers are learning, but at a speed that does not catch up with the dynamic evolution of modern banking. The regulator is frequently preparing to prevent the last crisis, and not the future one. as the contours of future vulnerabilities are fuzzy. In these circumstances, a possible remedy may call for slowing down the diffusion of financial innovations, treating them as risky until proven otherwise. This cautious attitude may call for more stringent leverage and reserve ratios, and blocking the introduction of financial innovations that may be ‘too clever by half’ for users and for regulators. Too big to fail?</p>Darryl FKA Ron commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017d3e0489ea970c2012-11-21T13:18:58Z2012-11-21T13:18:58ZDarryl FKA RonNeed more CS Lewis.<p>Need more CS Lewis.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017ee5796b68970d2012-11-21T13:05:15Z2012-11-21T13:05:15Zanne"A possible explanation for our failure to detect a learning process from past banking crises is that regulators and policymakers...<p>&quot;A possible explanation for our failure to detect a learning process from past banking crises is that regulators and policymakers are learning, but at a speed that does not catch up with the dynamic evolution of modern banking&quot;</p>
<p>Interesting, but where is this from?</p>paine commented on 'Links for 11-21-2012'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e2017c33d5efd0970b2012-11-21T13:03:51Z2012-11-21T13:03:51Zpainehttp://earthmart.blogspot.com/the MNCs want to close gaps while maintaining arbitrage opportunities ie leave forex tilts in place remove the obvious macro...<p>the MNCs want to close gaps while maintaining arbitrage opportunities<br />
ie leave forex tilts in place </p>
<p>remove the obvious macro outcome of a trade gap<br />
but by keeping a lid on norte amigo expansions </p>