It comes out in a boxset on September 27, so data will be out on October 3.

it’s estimated to do fairly well. Amazon ranking Stalker provides two estimates for items that cost over ¥10,000. 5,128 is the lower estimate, which applies a penalty that is meant to adjust for the fact that more expensive items tend to be inflated in the rankings. 9,860 is the higher estimate, which applies no penalty.

In nearly every case of a release that’s fallen under the high price penalty, the actual first week sales have been somewhere in between. So if we say ~7.5k that’s pretty strong sales these days. However, it has to be noted that Tsuki ga Kirei is half the price of normal anime releases, so it’s not quite as strong as it looks. Still, it’ll unquestionably be above average.

As mentioned in the post, I think this week is just low-ish across the board. This happens sometimes – some weeks are unusually high, and are followed by a lower than usual week. Others are unusually low, and followed by a higher than usual week.

It’ll still drop, but it may add closer to ~700 BDs next week than the usual ~300.

That would affect multiple weeks then, not just one. And it occasionally happens at random points throughout the year. I think it’s just a quirk of, like… when people get paychecks in vs when discs came out and how that all falls during the month, or something, I dunno.

TV shows generally have something you can compare against for context, but is there anything else that you can really hold Your Name against to get a sense of how well it’s doing as a non-adaptation anime movie?

It needs to reach 839k to have passed the Eva films. It should be able to do that.

As far as Ghibli goes, it’s behind Sen to Chihiro, Totoro, Howl, Laputa, and Ponyo. Ponyo might be within reach. The other four are somewhere between unlikely and clearly impossible (Laputa looked possible until I saw the extra 200k VHS sales).

So we’re looking at it likely becoming the 6th best-selling anime DVD/BD in history. I think that speaks for itself!

1400~ bd sell it’s a good number to another season? I’m cheering for s2 to sukasuka and demi-Chan wa kataritai but the number of sells doesn’t look so good… Someone see the number of sell from Ln both too? Last hope I think it’s a great sell but [admin edit: spoiler removed] I think that’s the biggest reason to not sell so great, someone can tell me about numbers?

No, unfortunately ~1400 average is not at all a good number of video disc sales. Sequels become increasingly likely as the numbers go up, but it’s really around 5000 average and above that they become even somewhat common. However, it varies tremendously from show to show and there are many factors that need to be considered beyond disc sales.

For a show that is selling ~1.4k discs to get a sequel, it has to have made up a lot of money in other ways: like manga/novels, live events, streaming, games, licensing, merchandise, etc. And the companies that made money on those other products have to be willing to fund another season of the anime… which they often aren’t, because it’s usually the DVD/BD company who provides the largest single amount of funding. They would likely have to increase their investment (and thus financial risk) to get a sequel adapted when there’s no guarantee an anime sequel would continue to increase their figure, novel, etc sales.

As for Sukasuka, it was never ranking very well at any point, even before any of its twists. So I don’t think the ending hurt it at all. In fact, it ranked far better in the last few weeks before release (around the ending) than it ever did before that. It’s just that it was too little too late, as the show was already super obscure with almost nobody buying it.

Sukasuka’s LNs don’t really sell enough to rank, though that’s not the same as saying their sales are awful. Oricon’s print reporting is really limited, so all we can say for sure is that it’s by no means a *big* light novel. As for Demi-chan, it’s a manga and sells quite decently (>150k/vol).