Title: Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles

To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of the order of 0.5 mm·K -1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm aremore » estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.« less

Fasullo, John T., and Nerem, Robert S.. 2016.
"Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles". United States.
doi:10.3390/w8110491. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1362291.

@article{osti_1362291,
title = {Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles},
author = {Fasullo, John T. and Nerem, Robert S.},
abstractNote = {To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of the order of 0.5 mm·K-1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm are estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.},
doi = {10.3390/w8110491},
journal = {Water (Basel)},
number = 12,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {10}
}

We investigated the millennial variability of global BVOC emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ8 GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have signicant short term globalmore » effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr-1 (13% and 19% less than during during 1750-1850 and 1000- 15 1200, respectively) and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr-1 (15% and 20% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr-1 (10% and 6% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr-1 (2% higher and 5% 19 20 less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr-1 (10% and 4% higher than during1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar We investigated the millennial variability of global BVOC emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ8GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends ofglobal isoprene emissions to be mostly a*ected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have signifcant short term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr-1 (13% and 19% less than during during 1750-1850 and 1000- 1200, respectively) and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr-1 (15% and 16 17 20% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr-1 (10% and 6% higher than during 1750-1850 and 18 1000-1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr-1 (2% higher and 5% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr-1 (10% and 4% higher than during1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar emission trends, the magnitude of the emissions are different. This highlights the importance of building better constraints on VOC emissions from terrestrial vegetation.emission trends, the magnitude of the emissions are different. This highlights the importance of building better constraints on VOC emissions from terrestrial vegetation.« less

Observational estimates of Kelvin wave momentum fluxes in the tropical lower stratosphere remain challenging. Here we extend a method based on linear wave theory to estimate daily time series of these momentum fluxes from high-resolution radiosonde data. Daily time series are produced for sounding sites operated by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and from the recent Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign. Our momentum flux estimates are found to be robust to different data sources and processing and in quantitative agreement with estimates from prior studies. Testing the sensitivity to vertical resolution, our estimated momentum fluxes aremore » found to be most sensitive to vertical resolution greater than 1 km, largely due to overestimation of the vertical wavelength. Climatological analysis is performed over a selected 11-year span of data from DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) radiosonde sites. Analyses of this 11-year span of data reveal the expected seasonal cycle of momentum flux maxima in boreal winter and minima in boreal summer, and variability associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation of maxima during easterly phase and minima during westerly phase. Comparison between periods with active convection that is either strongly or weakly associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) suggests that the MJO provides a nontrivial increase in the lowermost stratospheric momentum fluxes.« less

Here, terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered, on average, the equivalent of 30% of anthropogenic carbon (C) emissions during the past decades, but annual sequestration varies from year to year. For effective C management, it is imperative to develop a predictive understanding of the interannual variability (IAV) of terrestrial net ecosystem C exchange (NEE). Location: Global terrestrial ecosystems. Furthermore, we conducted a comprehensive review to examine the IAV of NEE at global, regional and ecosystem scales. Then we outlined a conceptual framework for understanding how anomalies in climate factors impact ecological processes of C cycling and thus influence the IAV of NEEmore » through biogeochemical regulation. As a result, the phenomenon of IAV in land NEE has been ubiquitously observed at global, regional and ecosystem scales. Global IAV is often attributable to either tropical or semi-arid regions, or to some combination thereof, which is still under debate. Previous studies focus on identifying climate factors as driving forces of IAV, whereas biological mechanisms underlying the IAV of ecosystem NEE are less clear. We found that climate anomalies affect the IAV of NEE primarily through their differential impacts on ecosystem C uptake and respiration. Moreover, recent studies suggest that the carbon uptake period makes less contribution than the carbon uptake amplitude to IAV in NEE. Although land models incorporate most processes underlying IAV, their efficacy to predict the IAV in NEE remains low. In conclusion, to improve our ability to predict future IAV of the terrestrial C cycle, we have to understand biological mechanisms through which anomalies in climate factors cause the IAV of NEE. Future research needs to pay more attention not only to the differential effects of climate anomalies on photosynthesis and respiration but also to the relative importance of the C uptake period and amplitude in causing the IAV of NEE. Ultimately, we need multiple independent approaches, such as benchmark analysis, data assimilation and time-series statistics, to integrate data, modelling frameworks and theory to improve our ability to predict future IAV in the terrestrial C cycle.« less

A global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model is used to study interannual variability in the Tropics. Flux correction is used to control the mean climate of the coupled system, and in one configuration of the coupled model, interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is dominated by westward moving anomalies. Through a series of experiments in which the equatorial ocean wave speeds and ocean-atmosphere coupling strength are varied, it is demonstrated that these westward moving disturbances are probably some manifestation of what Neelin describes as an {open_quotes}SST mode.{close_quotes} By modifying the flux correction procedure, the mean climate of the coupledmore » model can be changed. A fairly modest change in the mean climate is all that is required to excite eastward moving anomalies in place of the westward moving SST modes found previously. The apparent sensitivity of the nature of tropical interannual variability to the mean climate state in a coupled general circulation model such as that used here suggests that caution is advisable if we try to use such models to answer questions relating to changes in ENSO-like variability associated with global climate change. 41 refs., 23 figs., 1 tab.« less

This study examines the sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes (LSP) using an atmospheric general circulation model both uncoupled (with prescribed SSTs) and coupled to an oceanic general circulation model. The emphasis is on the interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes, which have first order influence on the surface energy and water budgets. The sensitivity to those processes is represented by the differences between model simulations, in which two land surface schemes are considered: 1) a simple land scheme that specifies surface albedo and soil moisture availability, and 2) the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB), whichmore » allows for consideration of interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical process. Observational datasets are also employed to assess the reality of model-revealed sensitivity. The mean state sensitivity to different LSP is stronger in the coupled mode, especially in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, seasonal cycle of SSTs in the equatorial Pacific, as well as ENSO frequency, amplitude, and locking to the seasonal cycle of SSTs are significantly modified and more realistic with SSiB. This outstanding sensitivity of the atmosphere-ocean system develops through changes in the intensity of equatorial Pacific trades modified by convection over land. Our results further demonstrate that the direct impact of land-atmosphere interactions on the tropical climate is modified by feedbacks associated with perturbed oceanic conditions ("indirect effect" of LSP). The magnitude of such indirect effect is strong enough to suggest that comprehensive studies on the importance of LSP on the global climate have to be made in a system that allows for atmosphere-ocean interactions.« less