Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?

30 May 2011

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

23%

16%

40%

4%

21%

Kevin Rudd

32%

31%

33%

32%

32%

Wayne Swan

2%

4%

6%

4%

5%

Greg Combet

4%

2%

1%

2%

2%

Bill Shorten

3%

6%

8%

5%

3%

Someone else

19%

23%

6%

33%

18%

Don’t know

17%

17%

6%

19%

19%

33% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 16% prefer Julia Gillard. This represents declines of 1% for Kevin Rudd and 7% for Julia Gillard since this question was asked nearly 12 months ago. Those selecting “someone else” has increased from 19% to 23%.

Julia Gillard is preferred by 40% of Labor voters compared to 33% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 33% to 16% and women by 28% to 17%.

Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Kevin Rudd

18%

27%

16%

21%

Julia Gillard

39%

28%

55%

16%

Other people in the Labor Party

23%

23%

21%

25%

The media

10%

16%

4%

25%

Don’t know

10%

7%

4%

12%

39% of respondents think that Julia Gillard is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party, 23% think other people in the Labor Party are responsible and 18% think Kevin Rudd is responsible. Only 10% think the media are mainly responsible.

A majority (55%) of Liberal/National voters think Julia Gillard is mainly responsible while Labor and Greens voters are fairly evenly divided between Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd and other people in the Labor Party. 25% of Greens voters think that the media are responsible.

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

19 Jul 2010

20 Dec 2010

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

17 Oct

14 Nov

12 Dec

16 Jan 2012

13 Feb

Total approve

52%

43%

41%

34%

28%

34%

37%

34%

37%

36%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

46%

54%

64%

59%

55%

54%

52%

53%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

7%

6%

5%

7%

8%

6%

6%

6%

Approve

41%

33%

34%

28%

23%

27%

29%

28%

31%

30%

Disapprove

17%

24%

22%

29%

28%

27%

25%

25%

27%

26%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

24%

25%

36%

32%

30%

29%

25%

27%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

13%

8%

7%

9%

11%

12%

11%

Julia Gillard’s approval rating has remained much the same as last month. 36% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

2010

20 Dec 2010

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

17 Oct

14 Nov

12 Dec

16 Jan 2012

13 Feb

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

38%

39%

40%

36%

32%

35%

35%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

47%

48%

50%

51%

52%

53%

51%

53%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

8%

6%

6%

7%

6%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

31%

32%

31%

32%

30%

26%

28%

29%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

24%

25%

23%

23%

26%

25%

25%

23%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

23%

27%

28%

26%

28%

26%

30%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

16%

15%

11%

9%

12%

14%

13%

12%

Tony Abbott’s approval rating has also changed little over the last month. 35% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -18 over the last 4 weeks.

Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party at the election due next year?

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party at the election due next year?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

Yes

31%

54%

19%

43%

No

47%

22%

70%

26%

Don’t know

22%

24%

11%

31%

Tony Abbott

Yes

47%

37%

67%

34%

No

25%

37%

12%

31%

Don’t know

28%

26%

21%

35%

31% think Julia Gillard will still be the leader of the Labor Party at the election due next year and 47% think she will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 54% of Labor voters think she will still be the leader.

47% think Tony Abbott will still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the election due next year and 25% think he will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 67% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be the leader.

Among non-major party voters, 36% think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party and 33% think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party.

Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?

Total good

Dec 10

Total bad

Dec10

Total good

Total bad

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

Don’t know

Julia Gillard

28%

36%

19%

56%

4%

15%

17%

29%

27%

9%

Tony Abbott

29%

27%

24%

38%

6%

18%

29%

24%

14%

10%

Kevin Rudd

21%

30%

30%

25%

5%

25%

35%

17%

8%

10%

Malcolm Turnbull

20%

21%

22%

22%

3%

19%

42%

17%

5%

14%

Bob Brown

20%

30%

16%

39%

2%

14%

31%

20%

19%

14%

Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).

45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.

Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.

Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).

Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Yes

26%

49%

12%

37%

No

55%

31%

76%

45%

Don’t know

19%

21%

12%

18%

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Yes

41%

26%

64%

29%

No

34%

53%

16%

53%

Don’t know

25%

21%

20%

18%

Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).

49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.