Monday, December 8, 2008

PK Save Percentage So Far

As Tyler Dellow has mentioned, 200 or so shots is not enough to quantify how good a goaltender is at the work of stopping pucks. In such a small sample there is significant room for a streak where the puck hits you or a similar streak it doesn't. This is particularly relevant in a discussion of PK save percentage since there aren't many shots. In another of Tyler's studies, he demonstrated that goaltenders that achieve a high PK save percentage one year tend to regress to the mean in the following season. Here are the eight best PK save percentages to this point in the season (minimum 100 shots against). Historically, an average save percentage on the PK is about .866, so I will also include the number of goals that have been saved above average:

Many of these goaltenders are bound to regress. We'll take another look at the halfway point in the season to see how these eight goaltenders are doing. Oh, and last year's leader is at .853 through 75 shots. He probably needs a new goalie coach.