The latest presidential poll out of Fairleigh Dickinson
University illustrates to a tee the route pundits say Gov. Chris Christie can travel
to the 2016 Republican nomination.

The poll puts Christie atop a field of Republicans, most of
them strong conservatives if not Tea Party darlings. Yet when broken down to Republicans with a
favorable view of the Tea Party, Christie drops to a distant second and among
self-described "conservatives" he drops to third.

So what gives? Can
Christie win the nomination without the support of the conservative base.

Pundits, including University of Virginia Political Science
Professor Larry Sabato, believe that a presidential zone flooded with
conservatives is the only way Christie can win.
Asked last month if Christie can win in conservative Iowa, Sabato said
yes, so long as it's a crowded field.

"It
depends on how many conservatives are running," Sabato said. "If
three or four, and Christie has a fairly clear "moderate" field, he
can win Iowa. But if one conservative clearly takes off, Christie will have a
hard time winning Iowa--he needs a very split field."

With candidates like U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida, Ted
Cruz of Texas and Kentucky's Rand Paul in the mix, Christie has little shot to
be the conservative pick of the GOP field.
His best and possibly only shot at the nomination would be to allow the
handful of conservatives in the race to battle it out for the base vote and
cruise through with the support of the party's moderate wing.

"I think
his whole campaign will be based on being the candidate who is not on the far
right," Princeton Professor Julian Zelizer said last month.

His appeal to
the GOP will be so-called "electability" not partisan purity, Zelizer
said.

"He'll be
able to say to primary voters, I'm the one who attracted the Hispanic vote and
the women's vote in New Jersey," Zelizer said. "He'll still say
he's a conservative. He won't run as a centrist, but he'll be able to say I'm
the one with the best chance to win, so vote for me and ignore all of the noise."

Which brings us
back to today's Fairleigh Dickinson poll.

Among
respondents who say they have an "unfavorable" view of the Tea Party,
Christie romps with 34 percent saying they'd vote for him. Paul is the only other named candidate who
breaks into double digits among those respondents.

The same is
true when ideology is thrown into the mix.
Christie does not fare well when conservatives voters are polled, but
self-described moderate and liberal Republicans favor the New Jersey governor overwhelmingly.

And as
potential challengers circle each other, throwing soft jabs and feeling each
other out, another conservative may be preparing to throw his hat in the
ring. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
hinted during an interview with the New York Times that he might be ready for another run.

In a piece for
the Daily Beast, reporter Ben Jacobs quotes Iowa conservative Bob Vander Plaats saying Huckabee's entry would be a "game
changer" one Jacobs says could hand Iowa to Christie.

The latest poll
has another interesting nugget buried in it.
Christie's latest reelection victory included monster support from
Hispanic and black voters, who came out for the Republican in historic
numbers. That support is a notch in
Christie's belt as he bolsters his electability.

But when
"non-whites" were asked who they support for the Republican
nomination, Christie finished fifth,
behind Paul, Cruz, Rubio and the generic "someone else."