I picked up Chris Young as a minor leaguer in early '06 and it's nice to see that he's really paying off (ditto for BJ Upton and his agonizing wait). His batting average is terrible but it's hard not to drool over a rookie who could go 30/25.

Assuming a fairly standard .300 BABIP, CBYoung should be hitting .273 right now. He has struck out 22% of his at-bats, for a solid if unexceptional 78% contact rate. 80% contact rate hitters can generally get an average b/w .280 and .300 if they hit for solid power, meaning 25-35 homers a year.

He has been very unlucky this year. Compare him to Curtis Granderson, a player I also own and love. Granderson K's about 24% of the time and has an unexceptional walk rate (although slightly better than CBYoung's). He also has only hit 16 homers, so 9 less than CBYoung. Yet his average is .288.

If Young had average luck, he would be on pace for a .275/30/60/100/30 season now. Next year, he's definitely worth a high pick, at least as high as Granderson and Eric Byrnes and some other outfielders who've surprised this year.