New York Rangers fall to Washington Capitals in another snoozer -- Game 2 Neilson Numbers

OK, this one was slightly more tolerable than the dreadful opener of this series, but that’s the proverbial damnation with faint praise, now isn’t it?

The New York Rangers and Washington Capitals went at it again on Monday night, once again beating the puck square in an endless battle for possession, and once again filling the lane between puck and new with a thicket of bodies. Through two games the defensive players have blocked nearly as many shots (68) as the two goalies (76 combined saves). Which is fine if you like in-your-face hockey, but for fans of the flow game, look elsewhere.

Last night Caps coach Dale Hunter took the imperative of shutting things down so seriously he gave Jay Beagle 50% more ice time than Alex Ovechkin. I’m not saying Beagle is a dog, but he’s no Great Eight either. Hard to imagine NBC pumping “Tune in as Jay Beagle and the Capitals bang heads with Brandon Prust’s Broadway Blueshirts!” this weekend. But hey, winning is the only thing, right? Who cares if it’s fit to watch?

In the slugfest that followed, the two teams combined for 80 hits, a high number even by the inflated standards of Madison Square Garden (whose minor officials apparently receive a commission for every time they hit the clicker, judging by the mess they make of RTSS stats across the board). The two teams did come out skating during a moderately entertaining first period which featured 12 scoring chances and three goals. Over the last 40 minutes both coaches battened down the hatches, and only 13 more scoring chances ensued, including just two at even strength in the third period.

Each team did manage one third-period tally on the PP (for Phantom Penalty), and justice prevailed when they evened out one on each side. Fair enough also that Washington got the “ringing” endorsement of the goal posts in this one after those same pipes had chimed for the home side in Game 1. Moreover, the iffy goals that plagued Braden Holtby in Game 1 seemed to be Henrik Lundqvist’s headache in Game 2. After all that, the result of two games of near stalemate hockey is, predictably enough, a split.

One of our playoff projects here at the Cult of Hockey will be to provide Neilson numbers (not TV ratings! but individual involvement in goals and scoring chances, named after Hall of Fame coach Roger Neilson) for each game in the featured series, as we customarily do for Oilers games during the season. On scoring plays only, we will analyze the involvement of players on both teams; for chances that do not result in goals, we will focus on the Rangers. For more on Neilson numbers, see the F.A.Q. here; on extended scoring summaries, see here.

A note to newcomers that Neilson numbers are not a balanced equation. There are typically more players involved in creating a scoring chance than are culpable on the defensive side — often, just a single player caught out for a moment is enough for two or three attackers to create something. This is especially so on the powerplay, where multi-way passing plays can result in several positives for the PP team and often, no negatives at all for the defending group who are, after all, outnumbered. Moreover, NNs vary by position, with wingers having the most offensive opportunity and the least defensive responsibility, and who therefore can be expected to contribute to two or three times as many chances as they allow. Centres fall in the mid-range, but should have a positive ratio on the order of 1.5 or 2:1. Defenders meanwhile, are doing well to break even, and stay-at-home defenders apt to score worse than that.

Thus while an even-strength NN of +4/-1 is very decent for a forward-thinking winger like Chris Kreider, it’s more impressive for a defence-first blueliner like Ryan McDonagh. The Rangers captain had a strong game but was very unfortunate on the one chance against when his desperation attempt to cover off Henrik Lundqvist’s puck retrieval blunder wound up in disaster, the puck seemingly preordained to find its way off of McDonagh’s skate and into Rangers net. Ultimately that one sequence of pain was the difference.

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