Ed Murray/The Star-LedgerIbrahim Hayek of Belleville performs some martial art tricks on Kean University campus in Union on Monday.

New Jersey is going to pay for its mild winter.

The Garden State has been treated to one of the warmest winters in its history, but that likely portends a less than savory spring for many. An early and long allergy season, a scourge of stink bugs, termites and other pests and potentially the worst outbreak of Lyme disease in recent memory could all be in the offing.

But it won’t all be bad.

An early start to spring means an early jump on the growing season, which could produce a big crop for the farmers come summertime. Local governments have some budgetary breathing room after saving on plowing costs. And, what’s more, forecasters predict the warm weather will continue in the coming months.

"I really don’t see any chance of us getting any cold air in here," said Jack Boston, a long-range forecast expert with Accuweather. "Most of the computer models are predicting above average temperatures, and, considering the way winter went, it’s probably going to end up being a pretty nice spring."

That’s of little comfort to people who depend on winter weather to make a living.

"The hit that we’ve taken this year is probably three times worse than we’ve ever had," said Wade Duthie of Wade’s Landscaping and Snow Removal Service in Hewitt.

And for allergy sufferers, the new year brought little relief. Rabia Chaudhry, a doctor in the Allergy and Immunology Department at University Hospital in Newark, said patients were reporting pollen-related allergy symptoms as early as January.

"We usually tell people to start early, to start their medications before they have symptoms," she said. "But the way the weather’s been this year, I guess our advice is out the window."

In fact, this meteorological winter — which runs from December to February — was the fourth warmest since records began being kept in 1895, with temperatures running nearly 5 degrees above normal, according to the state climatologist’s office. The statewide average temperature was 38.2 degrees, 1 degree shy of the all-time record, set in the winter of 2001-02.

"There has been a lot of variability in New Jersey’s climate going back forever," David Robinson, the state’s climatologist, said. "But the warmth we’ve seen as of late is as if we’ve loaded the dice."

And the consequences are starting to become apparent.

Pest management agencies around the state are already getting reports of swarming termites and an active stink bug population as well as other pests, in many cases a month earlier than usual.

"It’s good for us, but we don’t wish it on anybody," said Stuart Aust, owner of Bug Doctor, a pest control company based in Paramus. "I think by adding an extra month to the pest control season you’re going to have different insects reproducing earlier, so you’re going to start seeing more and more problems sooner than later."

Mild conditions could also give a head start to disease-carrying insects, like ticks and mosquitoes.

Patti Sapone/The Star-LedgerGlenn Tappen, research farm supervisor at Rutgers University, Horticultural Farm 3 on Cook Campus New Brunswick is rototilling a crop of research corn. Tappen says he usually does this early spring but because of the warmer weather he is 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule.

Len Douglen, executive director of the New Jersey Pest Management Association, said he has already received reports of mosquitoes, which Richard Ostfeld, a disease ecologist at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, N.Y., said can multiply rapidly and quickly become a problem.

While the breeding patterns of ticks are not affected by warm winters, the spring-like conditions have brought them out earlier than usual. Worse yet, a recent national study said New Jersey is loaded with Lyme disease-infected ticks, and Ostfeld predicts the Northeast could be in for one of the worst outbreaks of Lyme disease ever.

"So for the people who are vaguely aware of Lyme disease, but are not really doing anything about it, this is the year to change that," he said.

Unfortunately for honey lovers, the unusual weather has had the reverse effect on the state’s bee population. Beekeepers around the state say their hives, which are typically dormant in the winter months, remained active during the mild conditions and the bees burned through their food supplies, leading many to die of starvation.

It’s not just the pests that are starting early this year.

Flowers have been sprouting and trees have been budding earlier as well, which is bad news for allergy sufferers. And cold temperatures typically suppresses the amount of mold spores in the air but without a sustained deep freeze this winter those with mold allergies haven’t gotten much of a break.

"With mold allergies, our patients are often asymptomatic in the winter," said Chaudhry, the allergy doctor at University Hospital. "Because we haven’t had those cold conditions, we’re still seeing those patients coming in through the winter."

One group couldn’t be happier about the warmth — farmers.

"Mother Nature always holds the advantage," said Peter Furey, executive director of the New Jersey Farm Bureau. "But when it’s warm like this, it gives the grower a little bit of a head start."

Gardeners, too, are giddy.

"It was the winter that wasn’t," said Rich Wolfert, who was clearing his garden in East Brunswick and paging through seed catalogues last week. "The anticipation of growth, getting your hands dirty again. It’s a wonderful time in that respect."

The lack of snow has been less beneficial for other businesses, including ski resorts and snow-plow companies.

With temperatures well above freezing and a statewide average of just 7.7 inches of natural snow, some ski resorts were forced to offer major discounts in an attempt to lure anyone to their lifts. Mountain Creek in Vernon, for instance, discounted its daily lift tickets by more than 50 percent most days last week.

Landscapers, meanwhile — many of whom rely on snow removal as a means of winter income — have been plain out of luck.

"We started landscaping a few weeks early, but usually we start that with some money on hand. This year, we’ve got nothing," said Duthie, the Hewitt-based landscaper.

For the state, less snow means less money spent on overtime, supplies and contracts. The state Department of Transportation has spent just $17.7 million on snow removal related costs this year, less than a third of the $56.1 million it shelled out last winter.

Counties and municipalities are also thankful for the warmth.

Ed Murray/The Star-LedgerClassical percussion major Andrew Rubano of Jackson, enjoys the warm weather for spring break rehearsal on the xylophone outside the Nicholas Music Center in New Brunswick on Monday.

"Since January our overtime, when compared to this time last year, is down about $250,000," said Stephen Hammond, Morris County’s director of public works. "We’re also out there and able to do a lot of stuff we wouldn’t normally be able to do because nothing’s frozen. It’s been great."

But the recent lack of snow, or any measurable precipitation really, poses another uncharacteristic threat — fires.

While 2011’s torrential rains will be enough to stave off a drought for at least a few months, Robinson, the state climatologist, said dry and breezy conditions make brush fires a real threat in the coming weeks.

Last week, several small brush fires had to be extinguished in various parts of the state, and this week’s forecast of warm, dry weather could raise the threat yet again, Robinson said.

If the recent past is any indication, warmer-than-average temperatures are becoming more and more common. February was the 13th consecutive month with above average temperatures, and the winter capped off what has been the warmest consecutive 24-month period in New Jersey history.

"I can sit here right now on the 9th of March and tell you with some certainty this is going to be the 14th consecutive month of above average temperatures, and it may even be in record-breaking territory," Robinson said. "That’s the nature of how unusual this is. It’s unprecedented."