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Jaguars-Vikings: Statistical projections

Every Saturday or Sunday during the season, I’ll blog five statistical predictions and re-visit them after the game.

Here’s my list for today’s Jaguars opener at Minnesota.

1. MAURICE JONES-DREW’S CARRIES: 7

Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew has started his last 49 games, dating back to the final three weeks of the 2008 season. That streak will end Sunday because of his holdout and Rashad Jennings will get the start. Jones-Drew also has gone nearly four years since not carrying at least 10 times in a game. Will that streak end? Watching how much work he gets is a must-follow. The guess here is that Jones-Drew gets enough work so he’ll be greased up and ready to go for next week’s home opener against Houston.

2. JARED ALLEN’S SACKS: 1.5

It’s a tough assignment for Jaguars left tackle Eugene Monroe, which I wrote about in Saturday’s print edition. Allen is coming off a league-leading 22-sack season and will be in complete Be A Beast Mode for the Vikings’ home opener, knowing he is facing a second-year quarterback. What to watch is how much help the Jaguars give Monroe in going against Allen.

3. JUSTIN BLACKMON’S CATCHES: 6

It’s the regular season debut for the Jaguars’ first-round draft pick. He caught 10 passes in the preseason and the Jaguars have to like him against any of Minnesota’s cornerbacks. Coach Mike Mularkey said his philosophy isn’t to specifically get one player the football, but if I’m Blaine Gabbert, I look for No. 14 early to get him into the flow of the game.

4. COMBINED PENALTIES: 18

The replacement officials were decent in Wednesday’s Cowboys-Giants game although they let both teams hold at will. But that crew was deemed the most prepared. Translation: Things could get bogged down if this crew is flag-happy or it could be the wild, wild west if they Let The Players Play.

5. CHRISTIAN PONDER INTERCEPTIONS: 2

The Vikings quarterback is 0-5 at the Metrodome and he can’t be blamed if he presses Sunday because Minnesota desperately wants to get off to a fast start. That could allow for some play-making chances by the Jaguars defense.