Israelis began the week trying to absorb some alarming news: “IDF Preparing for Third Intifadeh” was the headline in the country’s second-largest daily. “Riot Alert” roared the largest. A February weekend that in Israel had been notable only for its warm weather turned out to have produced a firestorm in the Occupied Territories after a Palestinian prisoner named Arafat Jaradat died in Israeli custody, and Palestinian officials blamed torture. Hundreds of Palestinians were in the streets throwing rocks and firebombs.

“All the events are clearly pointing in the same direction—we are approaching an Intifadeh,” a Palestinian official named Quaddura Fares was quoted as saying in Ma’ariv. The word “intifadeh” translates as uprising, literally “throwing off,” but it connotes much more: nearly 1,000 Israelis and more than 3,000 Palestinians died in the last one (which lasted from 2000 to 2005). “The prisoners on hunger strike and the tense protests, the violent events in which Palestinian civilians are killed and the freezing of the peace process all indicate that we are on the verge of an explosion,” said Fares, who heads the association dedicated to Palestinian prisoners. “Jaradat’s death may well be the spark that will ignite it.”

But that was Sunday. By Tuesday morning, the danger evidently had passed. Behind his desk in Ramallah, Fares lit a cigarette and told TIME: “I know 100 percent there is no Third Intifadeh.” How did he know? Israeli officials had peered into the abyss and agreed to release key Palestinian prisoners who had been held without charges. “The Israelis tell me they will be released 21 May,” Fares says. And that, apparently, was that.

But it’s not. The reality is the very mystery that spooked the Israeli press in the first place: There’s no switch to turn an intifadeh on or off. The uprisings really are like weather, formed by forces that defy forecasting and, once under way, are no easier to control. As Fares pointed out later in the interview, trying to describe the essential dynamic: “You’re not talking about an army that takes orders. You’re talking about a population.”

In that light, the week’s events had a certain coherence. But gleaning it requires understanding that Palestine‘s politics is as divided as its territory. The coastal Gaza Strip, home to 1.6 million Palestinians, is ruled by Hamas, a militant Islamist organization that preaches that the only way to achieve liberation from the Israeli occupation is by armed resistance. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, head of the secular Fatah faction that holds sway in the inland West Bank (pop. 2.5 million), argues precisely the opposite: That armed struggle is not only futile but counter-productive; it allows Israel’s powerful military to bring down the hammer and for outsiders to dismiss the Palestinians as terrorists.

Exhibit A, for Abbas, is the Second Intifadeh, the 2000-2005 uprising of suicide bombs and firefights that, by the time it petered out left the Palestinian economy in shambles and armed thugs holding sway where a government used to be. Abbas won a landslide victory on a platform of negotiating an Israeli withdrawal. “We tried to educate the Palestinian people after the Second Intifadeh not to use violence,” says Ziad Abu Ein, the deputy minister for detainees in Abbas’ government. “We try to do everything to push the peace process and stop the thought of an armed struggle.”

The approach has worked well, at least for Israelis. With Abbas’ security forces in firm control, and Israeli troops and intelligence operating freely, not one Israeli died in a terror attack on the West Bank last year. That had not happened since 1973, six years after the territory came under Israeli control in the Six-Day War. Israeli officials say they are extremely satisfied.

The problem is, Palestinians are not. Negotiations have been moribund for five years, while Israel expands the Jewish settlements that already bar Palestinians from 40% of the West Bank. Meanwhile, in Gaza, Hamas won visible concessions from Israel after the latest round of fighting. A year earlier it also won the release of 1,027 prisoners in exchange for a single Israeli soldier it had kidnapped.

Abbas’s most defiant move was a diplomatic one: He went to the United Nations, which voted to designate Palestine a (non-member) state. In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu withheld tens of millions of tax revenues legally owed to the PA, undermining both Abbas and his approach. Notably, the money was suddenly released on Sunday, just as Israeli intelligence warned that the West Bank might be on the verge of exploding.

The lesson – that only violence really gets the Israelis’ attention — was not lost on Palestinian activists, even those who relentlessly preach non-violence. Mustafa Barghouti, a physician whose Palestinian National Initiative trains demonstrators to eschew rock-throwing in favor of more inventive protests, smiled in his Ramallah office at the power packed by even the rumor of a Third Intifadeh: “Yesterday I teased them a little bit, the Israeli media: I told them, ‘Okay, it started today.’’’

The fact is no one knows when it will start, if ever. The hardships of the last uprising remain fresh enough to inhibit many. But there is broad agreement the ingredients for a flare-up — chiefly, a lack of hope — are there. “Tension creates uprisings,” says Fatma Salame, 51, on a downtown Ramallah sidewalk. “It’s going to happen,” insists Arafat Hidmi, 48, from Hebron. “The situation does not feel stable at all.”

Consider the case of the 15-year-old boy shot in the chest during a protest just outside Ramallah on Sunday, near the Israeli military prison where most Palestinian prisoners are taken. Walid Hab al-Reeh turned out to be the son of the PA official in charge of “preventive security” — the very man whose job it is to keep things under control on the West Bank. That his son was in a confrontation with Israeli soldiers might be taken as an indication that the protest was sanctioned by the PA. But when I suggested as much both to officials and activists, their reaction was visceral. “No, that’s not true. The boy deceived his father; he took a taxi to the protest,” says Barghouti, whose medical aid group transported the wounded youth to the hospital. “No father sends his 15-year-old to a demonstration. But that tells you that even the man who’s in charge of internal security, even his son is interested in nationalist demonstrations. And that’s the dilemma that Fatah faces.”

Karl Vick has been TIME's Jerusalem bureau chief since 2010, covering Israel,the Palestine territories and nearby sovereignties. He worked 16 years at the Washington Post in Nairobi, Istanbul, Baghdad, Los Angeles and Rockville, MD.

Do not prosecute the scapegoats, prosecute the head criminal : Tony Haywood, investigate all those government officials in Justice Department who gave him permission to leave the country without any punishment.

Repetition compulsion, first described by Freud, is a form of mental illness. A person or group compulsively repeats a traumatic event over and over again always obtaining the same results, unable to stop, hoping that the next time the results will be different. It is one of the primary reasons that people seek psychotherapy. This perfectly describes the actions and strategy of the Palestinians.

Again and again the Palestinians, hurl themselves against their hated enemy, not only gaining nothing again and again but losing more again and again. Clearly, continuously firing rockets at Israel, throwing rocks at cops and celebrating the deaths of terrorists is the exact opposite of any behavior that will benefit them. This attitude will never achieve the start of trust needed to move toward peace. But the Palestinians continue to promise the world that the outcome will be different "next time" or "eventually." Two infantas did not work--let's try a third. 20,000 rockets lobbed into Israel's back yard did nothing, let's try more. This perfectly fits the definition of repetition compulsion disorder.

Later in life, Freud concluded that repetition disorder was a way of repeating a traumatic event until the subconscious could accept it. In other words, healing occurred when the past could be accepted as the past. We can only hope that time comes soon.

@Bluhorizon when people are occupied and oppressed they will rise up against their oppressor, history hasn't been too kind to occupiers, you should apply your little Freudian analogy on Israel has occupation, land theft and bombing of Palestinian civilians gotten it anything other than being more and more isolated, the occupation hasn't worked lets try and continue it but the Israelis continue to promise the world they want peace which no one believes.

@300@Bluhorizon There have been many groups who have had good reason to hate others, such as the hatred of the Europeans brutalized by the Germans during WWII. The tragedy of the Palestinians is a mere pinprick compared to what Europe suffered. And yet the people of Europe, in order to move on, have peace and a better life, have found a way to move past the past.

The Palestinians can continue to live in the past and suffer as they are now or they can move into the future, for their children's sake, and try to establish peace and eventually trust, maybe even (in'sh'allah) cooperation with the Israelis. Or they can nurse their hatred an continue on the inevitable downward spiral they are on now which must inevitably result in their complete disenfranchisement. Up to them,.

@Bluhorizon@300You are right about Palestinians, but the thing nobody in USA or EU know or didn't want to know is Palestinian would never stop their stupid war, because first, they didn't want peace, and second they want all Jews dead and they want not peace, but the whole Israel land to themselves. Sorry, if Israel people didn't want to die, to make "peace" warmongers happy. And second Palestine have no real leaders. It's divided between West Bank with Fatah and Gaza with Hamas. Non of them can make peace between themselves, not just between Palestine's and Jews. People, who send their teenage boys to frown stones and get hurt, who send their kids to blow up themselves have no future. And last third, but not least. Palestine's need constant conflict with Israel, because this way they can play victims, and get money from USA, EU and Muslim countries.The Palestine's are the biggest leaches in Meddle East. They live of handouts from USA, EU, Israel and some Muslim countries like Iran, Lebanon, Syria.

@Bluhorizon@300 The Israeli government is trying to restore the ancient kingdom from thousands of years ago, and you say the Palestinians are stuck in the past? The fact is Israel's reputation is at low point, and many, many countries around the world now disapprove of their actions. Nations that would never criticize Israel openly now do so, calls for divestment continue to grow. That kind of sounds like growing disenfranchisement to me.

Israel and South Africa join the Wall of Shame for murdering prisoners
cold-bloodedly. The World Court needs to take both of them to task
before the Court to try them for beating helpless prisoners to death.

But don't hesistate to take US money. In addition to footing a large part of the UNRWA $1 billion/yr budget (which goes solely for the care and feeding of Palestinians) US gives $800 million directly to the Palestinian Authority.

Oh, and Palestinians, do dance in the streets and hand out candies when 3,000 Americans are killed by Islamic terrorists:

Mother: Son's death "best day of my life"
Source:
Hamas website, Jan. 1, 2006
Um Nidal is filmed with her son, Muhammad, who is armed and ready to carry out a terror attack:
"By Allah, today is the best day of my life. I feel that our Lord
is pleased with me, because I am offering something [my son] for Him. I
wish to sacrifice more [sons] for Allah's forgiveness, and for the flag
[of Islam], 'There is no god but Allah', to fly over Palestine.... It's
true that there's nothing more precious than children, but for the sake
of Allah – what is precious becomes cheap."

" The military Hamas leader Ahmed Jabari was quoted in the Saudi Arabian newspaper Al-Hayat
as confirming that the prisoners released as part of the deal were
collectively responsible for the killing of 569 Israeli civilians"

@HarryKuheimIntifada not involved 5 foreign Arabs armies. There was no Israel in 1948, there where couple cities, which Jews build on bought for them land. Israel didn't own Arabs parts than. It was not an intifada, it was war to try and commit genocide like Nazi did. So Arabs brought it on their heads themselves. They didn't want to share land with Jews, they wanted to kill them all. But it didn't happened. Jewish people beat their sorry @$$es and kicked them pretty good. 600,000 Jews wing against 6 Muslim armies. It was good fight and Arabs got what they deserve. Every part of land Israel own now, beside what they got from UN, they get in wars, committed by Arabs against Israel. For 20 years Muslims learned their lessons, but when Arafat Muslim from Egypt, who was born in Egypt in 1926 claim to be "Palestine" started intifada against Israel. And from that time Muslims do anything to destroy Israel. When terrorism and wars stop to work, they used Western Politic and lies, to gain what they wanted. And they succeed, because many people believed in their lies.

when the israeli soldier was kidnapped and held for several years without food, or medical, where was the media then, i believe palestinians are a bunch of thugs, who can,t take as good as they give, and one of these days they will see what a real war is ,and i think this will be the one ,god bless israel.

@trippledare777 You want sympathy for an oppressive occupying soldier? good luck with that, amazing he was without food and medical but he survived. The occupier is the thug you got it backwards and God doesn't bless a country created by atheists who stole the land from the Palestinians.

@300@trippledare777 Nobody can stall anything from someone, who never existed. Palestine was territory of ancient Israel. which where renamed by Romans Palestine. The one and only real Palestine's in Meddle East are Jews, who's ancestors lived in Jerusalem, Zphat, Beer Sheva for all 2000 years. there where never the State, which called Palestine, it was territory which first where occupied by Romans, than Ottoman Empire, than it was British Mandate and than it was divided in parts. Part of the Palestine land get Syria, another Part got Jordan, part to Egypt and part was divided by UN between Jews and Muslims, who lived in this area. They where no more Palestine's, than Jews. Many of them migrate their from other countries. If you want to prove your post, please give us information when the state of "Palestine" was created, which kind of State it was. What was it Monarchy, Dictatorship or Republic. In what date "Palestine" State was created in what borders, what was their money and how long they existed. Before you answerer on this question with real facts, all you words are not more than lie and Palestine propaganda. Palestine's want to re wright the Meddle East History, but even them cant bring real ancestors to prove their lies. If I would use your logic, Americans stole land from Native Americans in North America and Texas from Mexico on the South of America. Nobody can stole something people didn't have.

@cotopaxi@RinaGray Those people were told to leave by their religious leaders when Israel became a state. They had the option of remaining in Israel as citizens or going to what is now Jordan. Instead they stayed in camps. The promised fall of the Jewish State did not, and will not, happen.

Middle Eastern Jews did not live there before the time of Christ. You have twisted history. The population was of Jews born for generations after the Babylonian expulsion. Jews have lived there since the time of Joshua. There were no Muslims at that time.

Middle Eastern Jews started to return to Israel before WWI and purchased unused land from the people living there. They were welcomed by the Jews who were living there at the time.

As far as the Arabs are concerned, let them go to Jordan where they belong. They had their chance to live in Israel.

@RinaGray Okay Rina, point taken. There was no Palestinian state in ancient times. But you mentioned that you can't steal anything from anyone who never existed. Why did they not exist just because they did not live under the auspices of modern statehood? They lived in what is now present day Israel-Palestine, for generations, and were forcibly displaced or removed to make room for the modern Israeli nation state.

So whether or not The State of Palestine existed as a nation, state, or both, in ancient history is irrelevant and should not come into the equation of what happened. The simple fact is that those so many thousands of people should not have been forcibly removed and displaced in order to make space for Jewish people over Muslim Arabs. What part of your rule book says that just because Middle Eastern Jews lived there before the time of Christ, that Arab Muslims who have lived there for generations (or even if not generations have their homes, lives, families and histories established there just as the Jews did) get to be revoked or removed from there?

"If someone had said July 11 that there was "a one percent possibility" Israel's military response would be as extensive as it turned out to be, "I would say no, I would not have entered this for many reasons -- military, social, political, economic," said Nasrallah, speaking in Arabic.

Not even the families of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel would have wanted to bring on such action, he said.

"If there was a one percent possibility, we would not have done that. We would not have done any capturing."

@AdamSmith@JerryBall@trippledare777 Awww the hasbarah agent wants sympathy for the evil israeli soldiers boohoo, you steal, occupy, oppress and kill Palestinian civilians you think you will be welcome with hugs and kisses? Get a clue, oh of course lets believe the lying Israelis about what happened.

@300@sim1too@JerryBall@trippledare777 ???? what does that word even mean? I remember 911 when all of the Arabs were out in the streets celebrating. You must have a very short memory or be a traitor to this country.