Prospectus Hit List

Week of June 18th

1

Roaring Back: winners of eight out of nine, the Tigers restake their claim on the top spot by beating two of the Hit List's weakest sisters. Those questioning their success thus far (hate to single out a subgroup of pesky South Side fans, but if the white sock fits...) should remember the almost universal tendency to underrate run prevention as compared to run scoring. As Baseball Between the Numbers points out, per the Pythagorean formula, a typical team can gain about one more win per year by subtracting 100 runs allowed than it can by adding 100 scored. Does that mean the Tigers won't regress? Not at all, but until they do, they deserve their ranking here, thanks in part to having four starters among the league's top 17 in VORP, and nearly a four-game advantage in the Support-Neutral rankings. Must read: Nate Silver's look at Justin Verlander's superficially unimpressive strikeout rate.

2

The Mets run their winning streak to eight straight and their NL East lead to 9.5 games before former Shea denizens Melvin Mora and Kris Bensonbring themback to earth. Still, 9.5 games is nice padding to have, particularly when none of the division's other teams is above .500; even better, this is the Mets' best 68-game start since 1988. Carlos Delgado has been red-hot (.444/.500/.722 for the week), as have Jose Reyes (.500/.552/.769) and David Wright (.333/.385/.833). And while Lastings Milledge (.258/.309/.468) has impressed in some areas, it's worth noting that he has yet to draw an unintentional walk in 68 plate appearances--not quite Francoeurian, but worthy of a bus ticket back to Norfolk nonetheless.

3

Amid just his second quality start since April 23, Randy Johnson throws at (but doesn't hit) Eduardo Perez in retaliation for a plunking and earns a five-game suspension. Johnson's brushback highlights the fact that the Yanks haven't been in the beanball biz lately; they've been hit by pitches 14 more times than their opponents, a margin second only to the Orioles. With a battered lineup increasingly vulenerable to the loss of one Jeter, a little chin music is apparently the order of the day... Hot in May (.330/.416/.615), Alex Rodriguez has swooned in June (.180/.293/.300 going into Sunday, not to mention a few notableclutchfailures--and the occasional screw job), but he believes he's figured out why.

6

Swept by the Marlins, the Jays are now 0-6 in interleague play this year, the only AL team without a win. Wipe those six losses from the ledger and the Jays would be leading the Yanks by a game and the Red Sox by 2.5. They still lead the majors in Equivalent Average (.287), but one key part of that has been Alexis Rios, who hit .361/.396/.645 through the end of May. He's started the inevitable plummet back to earth, batting just .230/.347/.492 this month--not terrible, but hardly earthshaking. The team had better plan on upping its scoring a bit with the return of Josh Towers (9.00 ERA in 45 innings, -14.5 VORP, third-worst in the majors).

8

Little Sarge Taketh Away and Little Sarge Giveth: Gary Matthews Jr. robs Shawn Green of a homer, then hits one himself in the same inning en route to a sweep of the Diamondbacks and a .444/.464/.704 week for himself. Matthews' .312 EqA is tops on the team, as is his 30.4 VORP. Also hot is Michael Young, coming off a 5-for-5 game and hitting .467/.452/.667 for the week. Still, the Rangers' stumble against the White Sox--losing three out of four--causes them to surrender first place in the AL West for the first time since May 19.

10

Lost Tribe: another wasted week culminates in a sweep by the Brewers, knocking the Indians down to fourth place in the AL Central, and to a mere 3.6 percent chance of making the postseason. This time the bullpen is to blame, particularly for a pair of walk-off wins by Milwaukee that negated solid starts. Cleveland's 'pen ranks second to last in the AL in WXRL (-1.022), and third-worst in Adjusted Runs Prevented (-15.5). Unrelated to the bullpen but certainly not helping matters is the loss of Casey Blake to an oblique strain; fluky .304/.388/.519 line or no, he's a better alternative than Todd Hollandsworth (.200/.224/.400) in a lineup that needs all the runs it can muster, and his trade value is probably at its peak as well.

12

They're still running second in the NL Central, but the Reds have lost eight out of nine and been outscored 59-33 since sweeping the Cardinals to taste first place. Hit the hardest is Brandon Claussen, who gives up nine runs to the White Sox, then goes on the DL with shoulder tendonitis. With a 6.19 ERA and -4.4 VORP Claussen's been doing more harm than good; he's allowed a team-high 14 homers (1.63 per 9) , and his .508 SLG allowed is ninth-worst in the league. Even worse news for the Reds: his replacement is Joe Mays, who last pitched well back when Tom Kelly was still managing.

13

Beat LA! Beat LA!: the Padres take series from both teams who call the City of Angels home (don't start...) and claim a share of first place in the NL West for the first time since May 18. Jake Peavytakes a loss but with better results than his previous three starts; still, opinions are mixed on the wisdom of his gutting it out. Less ambiguous is Dave Roberts' collision with a wall ("the human version of the front crumple zones you see in car ads," says Will Carroll); he's got a deep thigh bruise and could miss up to six weeks. That's a tough loss given that Roberts is hitting .295/.365/.432, leading the team in VORP (13.5) and is second in EqA (.288, one point behind Brian Giles).

14

Taking advantage of a rare opportunity to DH, Barry Bonds homers in back-to-back games to run his total to 718. But it's his game-ending strikeout against J.J. Putz--on an apparent mistake pitch--that proves his most memorable highlight of the week as the Giants are swept by the Mariners. They've lost seven of nine, failing to capitalize on the troubles of the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Bonds isn't the only one of the Giants' ancient outfielders in the news. Back spasms hamper Moises Alou on his way to a 1-for-18 week, while Steve Finley becomes just the sixth major leaguer ever to rack up 300 steals and 300 homers, joining Barry and Bobby Bonds, Willie Mays, Andre Dawson and Reggie Sanders. That's fast company.

15

Correlation doesn't prove causation when it comes to the Diamondbacks' miseries, but there's no denying that the off-field problems seem to love the company of the on-field ones. Losers of 11 out of 12 amid the Jason Grimsley maelstom, the Diamondbacks now have to contend with general managing partner Ken Kendrick throwingLuis Gonzalez--only the most storied hitter in the franchise's short history--under the bus, not to mention setting a new MLB record for sunk costs ($22 million) with the release of Russ Ortiz. Just desserts for inflicting that hideous purple and teal combo on an undeserving nation, perhaps.

16

Rocky Road: after rolling to 35 runs in a four-game sweep of the Nationals at RFK, the Rox manage just seven while being swept by the Cardinals at Busch II. If there's any comfort to be found, it's that the team's performance this month looks a bit more "Rockies-esque": a staff ERA of 5.30 (knocking them back to a middle-of-the-pack 4.40 overall) and a scoring rate of 5.44 per game (nearly a run better than their overall mark of 4.48) via a .289/.346/.449 batting line. More typical: of their ten most frequent hitters, three (Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, and Jamey Carroll) have an OPS over 1.000 for the month, while five are under .700. Only Jose Mesa's eight scoreless frames and Todd Helton's puny-by-comparison .475 SLG (off of a .339 AVG) are providing the charming brand of cognitive dissonance we've become so accustomed to here lately--frankly, that's much more fun to analyze.

18

Putz Out: while the Mariners haven't exactly had a boatload of games to save, new closer J.J. Putz has been doing a stellar job, highlighted by his two game-ending strikeouts of Barry Bonds over the weekend. In 34 innings, Putz has struck out 46 while walking only six, he hasn't been scored upon in his last nine outings, and he's now tenth in the AL in WXRL (2.017). Pitching well at the front end of the equation is Gil Meche, who's put together a 3.79 ERA since the end of April via six quality starts out of his last nine. He leads the staff in SNLVAR (2.2), is second in VORP (17.5) and, as a pending free agent, might net the Mariners a solid return on the open market come the trade deadline.

19

Fish Tale: the Marlins have won eight straight and 17 out of 23 since May 21. A trio of rookie pitchers is leading the way; Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, and Ricky Nolasco have combined for a 2.31 ERA, 7.77 K/9 and 3.0 K/BB ratio in 97.2 innings in that span, with Johnson's 2.01 ERA leading the National League (at least until he slips back under the 1 IP/G qualifier). Dontrelle Willis' roll has lasted even longer; since May 15, he's shown the "kids" (average age: 22.3 to his 24) how it's done by puttting up a 2.54 ERA in 46 innings, good for five quality starts out of six. Not rolling: Hanley Ramirez, suffering through back trouble and an 0-for-29 slump.

20

Finally regaining his stroke, Jason Kubel homers in three straight games (including a walk-off grand slam) to lead the Twins to a sweep over the Red Sox on their way to a season-high seven-game winning streak. Kubel's hitting .333/.357/.648 this month, just one of many positive signs for the Twins. The staff has a 3.05 ERA in June, with Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano combining for a 1.69 ERA and a 49/6 K/BB ratio in 48 innings; Brad Radke (1.93 ERA) and Carlos Silva (4.76) appear to be turning things around as well. Even better, the team has cut the cord on both Tony Batista (.236/.303/.388, -3.5 VORP) and Juan Castro (.231/.258/.308, -6.9), though that good move has been long since negated by having them around at all.

21

Charlie Manuel's club is "not playing for no damn wild card", and after a six-game losing streak plunges the Phils below .500, he's got that right. Pitching continues to be the big problem, particularly the rotation, which has combined to allow a 6.88 ERA this month and ranks 29th out of 30 in SNLVAR. Even staff ace Brett Myers has been getting pummelled, yielding 11 earned runs and lasting just 5.2 innings in his last two starts; with 15 non-homer hits in those starts, it's fair to say he hasn't been getting much support in the field--a continual problem on a team that ranks second-to-last in the league in Defensive Efficiency (.681).

23

Revving Up: even having dropped a series to the Royals, the Astros have won nine out of 12 to reclaim a spot in the NL Wild Card hunt, and they can look forward to the return of Roger Clemens on Thursday (matched up against Francisco Liriano, so set your TiVO); Clemens' final tuneup in Round Rock went as planned. Roy Oswalt's already back from his back troubles, and Morgan Ensberg (bruised shoulder) and Chris Burke (bruised elbow) return from their respective owies, with the latter hitting .476//.607/.761 for the week.

26

Orioles Entry by Numbers: start with the part about Jay Gibbons and the disabled list. Then move to the line about an underperforming member of the rotation getting bitchy for no good reason; boy, that Leo Mazzone, et cetera. Yadda yadda about another sub-.500 week, falling further in the AL East standings, then toss in the part about the former O with the performance-enhancer connection casting more bad light on the organization. Close with a random Simpsons reference that seems vaguely apropos: "So the caterpiller has emerged from its cocoon as a shark... with a gun for a mouth." Some teams make this job easy.

28

Bleak Week: the Cubs serve up their second winless week of the young season, their third losing streak of at least six games, and the news just gets worse from there. Derrek Lee's return isn't progressing as quickly as hoped; earlier timetables were overly optimistic, but he may not be back until just before the All-Star break. The Cubs are now 17-37 (.315) since he went down. Mark Prior is bombed (3.2 IP, 8 R, 4 HR) in his long-awaited season debut, and while the rotation may soon get Kerry Wood back, it's only because the team doesn't think he can help in a bullpen role. Oh, and like a vat of mayonnaise left to warm in the Wrigley outfield, Tony Womack has predictably curdled; he's hitting just .185/.290/.296 in June.

The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Sunday.

Jay Jaffe is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Click here to see Jay's other articles.
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