Putting aside our relative team strengths and weaknesses, and guesses about how individual players slump or streak, on balance, the schedule favors the Sox:

Home/Away: The Sox have 17 home games and 12 road games. The Tigers have 13 home games and 16 road games. Advantage Sox.

Common opponents: Sox and Tigers each play the Twins and Indians 6 more times, 3 home/3 away each. Each team also visits the Angels for 3, but our visit is later, when it is possible the Angels may be eliminated from the Wild Card. The Tigers play the Royals for 7, 4 home/3 away. We get the Royals for 6, 3 home/3 away. Slight advantage Tigers.

Toughest remaining opponent, on paper: The Sox host the Rays for 4. The Tigers host the Athletics for 3. Slight advantage Tigers.

Remaining head-to-head games: Our only remaining games with the Tigers are next week at the Cell. Going into that game, the Sox will have been at home, while the Tigers will travel from Anaheim. Advantage Sox.

Just to complicate things...

Our two advantages come together in our series with the Tigers, because our 4 additional home games, and their 4 additional road games, are played in that one series.

After that series, the schedule favors the Tigers. From then, the Sox only have 7 home and 12 road games, whereas the Tigers have 10 home and 9 road games. The last two weeks of the season, they get a steady diet of Twins and Royals. We get the Indians, Rays and Angels.

Balls bounce funny sometimes, players get hot or cold, inconsistent strike zones can help or hurt anyone at any time, and things rarely turn out as planned, but from today's perspective, the upcoming 10-game homestand, capped by the 4-game series with the Tigers, represents the Sox biggest opportunity to win - or lose - the division. Depending on how things go this next week, a 2-2 tie may help the Tigers, and 3 or 4 Tiger wins are a serious blow to the Sox. OTOH, if the Sox win 3 or sweep, they significantly increase their odds of winning the division.

sox1970

09-03-2012, 01:40 PM

Going into the last series, I thought the Sox had to win 3 of the 7 remaining. That hasn't changed. Sox need to win 3 of 4 at home, but we'll see where they are when it begins.

The remaining schedules are fairly even, so I just want the Sox to wake up in first every day.

Lip Man 1

09-03-2012, 02:45 PM

On paper it's very important but how important depends on what the standings look like after the Sox face, "the great" Mendoza, "Cy" Chen and "Catfish" Guthrie.

Lip

amsteel

09-03-2012, 03:07 PM

After game 2 of the KC sweep I said the then 14 remaining games against the Tigers and KC will determine the season.

0-4 so far.

A. Cavatica

09-03-2012, 03:16 PM

Turns out we survived the series. Back in first place.

Jollyroger2

09-03-2012, 06:22 PM

Turns out we survived the series. Back in first place.

We'll see if they survived at the end of the season. Going into Detroit 3 up and coming out tied is hardly a success story. At some point, it would be nice if the Sox won some of these games instead of constantly relying on or expecting someone else to do their work for them.

CoopaLoop

09-04-2012, 12:46 AM

Can you imagine if the Sox swept the Tigers twice only to cough up first place instantly twice?

Dan H

09-04-2012, 03:00 AM

We'll see if they survived at the end of the season. Going into Detroit 3 up and coming out tied is hardly a success story. At some point, it would be nice if the Sox won some of these games instead of constantly relying on or expecting someone else to do their work for them.

I agree with this. A team has to beat its closest competitor some time if it is going to win a division. They need to win three and that is going to be hard because they have to face Verlander again. There is no way to paint a rosy picture on that lost weekend in Detroit. The Sox let the Tigers right back in it instead of putting them away or taking a big step in putting them away.

central44

09-04-2012, 06:35 AM

The Sox are a different team at home, just like the Tigers are a different team on the road. I'm pretty sure the last time Detroit was in Chicago was back in April or May when the Sox were still discovering that they were actually good.

I'm pretty optimistic about where things stand.

Tragg

09-04-2012, 08:35 AM

Turns out we survived the series. Back in first place.

The key to that series was to just not get swept. Had that happened, we'd be 3 up.
Now, we really need to win 3/4 next week.

TheOldRoman

09-04-2012, 09:09 AM

They are of huge importance. The Tigers are not as good a team as the Sox. However, the Sox look to be developing a Twin-like complex with the Tigers, being unable to beat them. If the Sox would have went 2-4 in those six games - they still wouldn't have a good record vs. the Tigers (6-8), but they would be 5 games up right now. Had the Sox managed to win three of those six games, they would be 7 up right now. The Tigers picked up six games against the Sox head-to-head in the last month and a half. The point is, although I think the Sox are going to do better than the Tigers against other teams, the remaining four head-to-head games could potentially be disasterous and cost the Sox the division.

If the Tigers win three of four, they pick up only two games on the Sox (would be one game up if today's standings hold). That would be bad for the Sox, but I think they could overcome it. If the Sox can go 2-2 in those games, I think the Tigers are going to have a hard time passing the Sox. If the Sox win three of four, I think the division is pretty much theirs. If either team sweeps, they will pop the champaign barring a 2007 Mets collapse in the last weeks.

SOXSINCE'70

09-04-2012, 10:24 AM

On paper it's very important but how important depends on what the standings look like after the Sox face, "the great" Mendoza, "Cy" Chen and "Catfish" Guthrie.

Lip

Odds are the Sox may see "Cy" and "Catfish" twice.Depending on whether the Royals have an off day Thursday, "Cy" will pitch either Saturday or Sunday.

sox1970

09-04-2012, 10:31 AM

Odds are the Sox may see "Cy" and "Catfish" twice.Depending on whether the Royals have an off day Thursday, "Cy" will pitch either Saturday or Sunday.

It's Mendoza, Chen, and Guthrie again this weekend.

MtGrnwdSoxFan

09-04-2012, 10:48 AM

It's Mendoza, Chen, and Guthrie again this weekend.

Jeez, do the Royals have any other pitchers?

tstrike2000

09-04-2012, 10:51 AM

They're very important. If we get some contributions front the middle of our lineup, and hold our good friend Delmon Young in check, we can take this division. Detroit's not that good.

Lip Man 1

09-04-2012, 10:52 AM

Not against the Sox (and if you are the Royals why would you?)

I think that's three straight series where those are the only guys the Sox will face. Bizarre isn't it?

Lip

WhiteSox56

09-04-2012, 10:57 AM

They're very important. If we get some contributions front the middle of our lineup, and hold our good friend Delmon Young in check, we can take this division. Detroit's not that good.

Delmon Young should be easy to pitch to one would think. You just CAN'T miss your spot down and in with the guy!

SOXSINCE'70

09-04-2012, 10:59 AM

It's Mendoza, Chen, and Guthrie again this weekend.

I wonder what Kevin Appier and Bret Saberhagen are doing this weekend.They might want a shot at the Sox.

SOXSINCE'70

09-04-2012, 11:01 AM

They're very important. If we get some contributions front the middle of our lineup, and hold our good friend Delmon Young in check, we can take this division.

Don't forget about Cabrera and Fielder.Hell,i'm happy if we just keep them in the yard.

sox1970

09-04-2012, 11:02 AM

If the Royals use this same rotation the rest of the season, the Tigers face those guys twice more too (at least Mendoza and Chen). The remaining schedules are pretty even for the Sox and Tigers. The better team will usually win over 162.

dwitt76

09-04-2012, 11:06 AM

I heard that if 2 division leaders are tied at the end of the year, the winner will be decided with a 1 game playoff. How is home field determined in that game?

ChiSoxGal85

09-04-2012, 11:09 AM

I heard that if 2 division leaders are tied at the end of the year, the winner will be decided with a 1 game playoff. How is home field determined in that game?
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it's head-to-head record now.

sox1970

09-04-2012, 11:11 AM

I heard that if 2 division leaders are tied at the end of the year, the winner will be decided with a 1 game playoff. How is home field determined in that game?

Tigers would host. Sox are 4-10 against them, so they can't catch them head-to-head.

Basically the Sox have to win it in 162, or they're probably not going to win it. Plus Verlander is lined up for that game.

palehosepub

09-04-2012, 01:06 PM

Sox included a tiebraker game in the playoff invoice / package but yes it would be in Detroilet base on head to head records

MtGrnwdSoxFan

09-04-2012, 01:16 PM

I heard that if 2 division leaders are tied at the end of the year, the winner will be decided with a 1 game playoff. How is home field determined in that game?

You can thank Joe Nathan's bitching and whining about the Blackout game being in Chicago in 2008 for that rule change.

It used to be a coin flip...but now it's based on head to head.

sox1970

09-04-2012, 01:22 PM

You can thank Joe Nathan's bitching and whining about the Blackout game being in Chicago in 2008 for that rule change.

It used to be a coin flip...but now it's based on head to head.

But at the end of the day, it was a better rule change. It should be based on that season's h-t-h.

And next year they are going back to 19 games vs division opponents, so they can't have ties.

jdm2662

09-04-2012, 01:23 PM

But at the end of the day, it was a better rule change. It should be based on that season's h-t-h.

And next year they are going back to 19 games vs division opponents, so they can't have ties.

I also agree with the rule change. But, that doesn't change the fact the Twins were still whinners (and if the Sox did the same thing, I would have no issue people saying they were whinners, too). The Twins pretty much admitted they couldn't win without their wonderful dome.

I would like to thank the Twins for next taking care of their own business, though. I got to attend the tie-breaker game right before I went on my honeymoon. Now, that was awesome. My wife was even luckier. She got to attend both the DET game and the tie-breaker game.

MtGrnwdSoxFan

09-04-2012, 01:29 PM

But at the end of the day, it was a better rule change. It should be based on that season's h-t-h.

And next year they are going back to 19 games vs division opponents, so they can't have ties.

Teams can still tie for the division...it's just be more cut and dry who gets home-field in 163.

sox1970

09-04-2012, 01:32 PM

Teams can still tie for the division...it's just be more cut and dry who gets home-field in 163.

Correct, I just meant teams can't tie for the season series next year.

A 9-9 split isn't possible after this year, where they have to go to division record, or another coin flip, etc

Huisj

09-04-2012, 02:53 PM

Here are some weird things I noticed. The Tigers generally seem a lot more consistent against most teams than the Sox do.

Detroit is only below .500 against 4 teams this year: Cleveland (5-8), New York (4-6), Seattle (1-5), and Texas (3-7).

The Sox are below .500 against 7 different teams: Baltimore (2-6), Boston (2-6), Detroit (4-10), Houston (1-2), Kansas City (4-8), LA Dodgers (1-2), and St. Louis (1-2). The Sox make up for that by killing some other teams like Minnesota (10-3) and Seattle (8-1).

Crap, I have tickets for Monday. I was hoping they'd skip or push Quintana back and start Axelrod.

Tragg

09-05-2012, 09:30 PM

Very

KenBerryGrab

09-05-2012, 10:30 PM

Crap, I have tickets for Monday. I was hoping they'd skip or push Quintana back and start Axelrod.

They still could.

WisSoxFan

09-05-2012, 10:52 PM

Obviously those four should be huge, but it seems to me the next 10 are when the Sox need to make their move. While the Sox are home against KC the Tigers go on the road in Anaheim. The four with Detroit follow and then Detroit stays on the road in Cleveland while the Sox travel to Minnesota. To me it feels as if the Sox need to pick up at least two games over that span if they are going to win this thing. Hopefully they can pick up one this weekend and go from there.

The schedule after that seems to favor Detroit as the Sox stay on the road in KC and then LAAAA and we all know the Sox have lost nine of 10 on the road.

September is going to fun and hopefully Oct.

kufram

09-06-2012, 06:08 AM

They still could.

Or Quintana could pitch a shutout. He's due. what a lift a good performance from him would bring.

All of the games are crucial from here on, but we could make things very difficult for Detroit if we can take the series. As of today we are one game from missing the playoffs, but the Yankees are only 2 games from missing them and called a team meeting. Tampa? Right now they aren't going. Lots of people in several cities are nervous.

SOXSINCE'70

09-06-2012, 10:40 AM

They still could.

I'll be there Monday as well. There's always hope.:praying::praying:

hawkjt

09-06-2012, 11:46 AM

In Tigerland,for some time they have been counting on having a lead by the time they finish the homestand with the Cleveland series....this just in...they are still eating the Sox dust!

I honestly think this is a big psychological blow for the Tigers. They now face 10 road games,and they are not great on the road. Go Angels!!

palehosepub

09-06-2012, 01:27 PM

saw in the Trib this morning that Weaver is hurting so it doesnt look like he will pitch against the Kitties... damn

SOXSINCE'70

09-06-2012, 01:30 PM

saw in the Trib this morning that Weaver is hurting so it doesnt look like he will pitch against the Kitties... damn

Confirmed on MLB network late last night/early this morning:

Weaver will miss the series.:(: Earliest the Halos expect him back is Tuesday.

CHISOXFAN13

09-06-2012, 01:31 PM

saw in the Trib this morning that Weaver is hurting so it doesnt look like he will pitch against the Kitties... damn

The positive is the Angels have been raking of late. Huge series for them as well because they have closed the gap on the WC leaders.

SOXSINCE'70

09-06-2012, 01:32 PM

In Tigerland,for some time they have been counting on having a lead by the time they finish the homestand with the Cleveland series....this just in...they are still eating the Sox dust!

I honestly think this is a big psychological blow for the Tigers. They now face 10 road games,and they are not great on the road. Go Angels!!

Have a season,Mike Trout!! No teal needed.

Foulke You

09-06-2012, 01:33 PM

Or Quintana could pitch a shutout. He's due. what a lift a good performance from him would bring.
Tigers as a team have a lower batting avg against lefties and they have never seen Quintana before which is also an advantage. Even though Quintana has struggled his last two outings, I still feel he has a better chance to shut down that Detroit offense than Axelrod.

Jollyroger2

09-06-2012, 01:35 PM

In Tigerland,for some time they have been counting on having a lead by the time they finish the homestand with the Cleveland series....this just in...they are still eating the Sox dust!

I honestly think this is a big psychological blow for the Tigers. They now face 10 road games,and they are not great on the road. Go Angels!!

I don't know if a 1-game lead (that the Sox have only because other teams have beaten the Tigers for them) qualifies as eating dust.

It would be a lot better if the Sox did some of this work on their own and take 3 of 4 in this series. Obviously these are critical games, given the lack of success vs. Detroit so far head to head.

doublem23

09-06-2012, 01:43 PM

I don't know if a 1-game lead (that the Sox have only because other teams have beaten the Tigers for them) qualifies as eating dust.

The Sox have a 1-game lead on Detroit because they've been better than the Tigers have.

Dan H

09-07-2012, 07:27 AM

The Sox have a 1-game lead on Detroit because they've been better than the Tigers have.

Except in head to head meetings. The Sox need to beat Tigers three out of four to make up for six straight losses in Detroit. If can't win this series, you can't say they have been that much better than Detroit.

doublem23

09-07-2012, 08:07 AM

Except in head to head meetings. The Sox need to beat Tigers three out of four to make up for six straight losses in Detroit. If can't win this series, you can't say they have been that much better than Detroit.

:scratch:

Obviously beating the Tigers next week would make things easier on everyone, but I can assure you that it doesn't really matter how it happens, whoever wins the most games at the end of the season will be the better, more deserving team.

PorkChopExpress

09-07-2012, 08:48 AM

:scratch:

Obviously beating the Tigers next week would make things easier on everyone, but I can assure you that it doesn't really matter how it happens, whoever wins the most games at the end of the season will be the better, more deserving team.

Or the luckier one.

ChicagoG19

09-07-2012, 09:02 AM

Or the luckier one.

Better to be lucky than good.

hawkjt

09-07-2012, 11:26 AM

It could come down to that last series with the Tigers in KC,and the Sox vs the Tribe.

I will take my chances with that bet.

Lip Man 1

09-07-2012, 11:40 AM

"I'd rather be lucky than good..." - Bill Russell.

Of course he was both.

Lip

WisSoxFan

09-07-2012, 11:47 AM

"Luck is the residue of design." Branch Rickey

soxfanreggie

09-07-2012, 12:43 PM

Except in head to head meetings. The Sox need to beat Tigers three out of four to make up for six straight losses in Detroit. If can't win this series, you can't say they have been that much better than Detroit.

It would be nice to win 3 of 4, but even a split keeps them above and gives the Tigers less games to overtake us.

We face a guy tonight who is 7-9 with a 4.48 ERA (career 5.70 ERA) and isn't a power pitcher. We need to go out and pound Luis Mendoza.

kufram

09-07-2012, 01:40 PM

Who is Detroit? Somebody we play in the future. Today the only other team that exists is KC. We only have to beat them tonight. All the other stuff is just supposition.