Magnus Carlsen and Fabiano Caruana head to tie-breaker after Game 12 draw

Garry Kasparov has spoken. The longtime world No 1 believes Carlsen’s decision to offer a draw may undercut his status as favorite in Wednesday’s tie-breaker.

Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63)

In light of this shocking draw offer from Magnus in a superior position with more time, I reconsider my evaluation of him being the favorite in rapids. Tiebreaks require tremendous nerves and he seems to be losing his.

“I wasn’t necessarily going for the maximum,” says Carlsen, essentially admitting that he was content with a draw after move 20. “I just wanted a position that was completely safe, (but) where I could put some pressure. If a draw hadn’t been a satisfactory result, obviously I would have approached it differently.”

Says Caruana: “I was a bit surprised by the draw offer. I can never be better (than move 31). And I don’t really have any active ideas. If anything, black is better. At least I thought I was over the worst of it. I thought it was much more dangerous a few moves ago.”

Carlsen will play with the white pieces in the first game of Wednesday’s rapid play-off after the drawing of lots is conducted. Here’s a look at the format:

• Best of four rapid games with 25 minutes for each player with an increment of 10 seconds after each move.

• If still tied, they will play up to five mini-matches of two blitz games (five minutes for each player with a three-second increment).

• If all five mini-matches are drawn, one sudden-death ‘Armegeddon’ match will be played where White receives five minutes and Black receives four minutes. Both players will receive a three-second increment after the 60th move. In the case of a draw, Black will be declared the winner.

Game 12 is a draw after 31 moves!

Carlsen offers a draw after 30. ... g6 31. Rd1 Ra8 and Caruana accepts. Wow! An absolute shocker given Carlsen’s position and advantage on time! It’s a peaceful result after 31 moves and three hours and the world championship will be settled Wednesday in a tie-breaker.

Caruana plays 30. Qb4 and he’s working with 15min 42sec after the increment. He’ll need to make his next 10 moves in that span to reach move 40, after which the players are given an additional 50 minutes. But it won’t be a walk in the park as he weathers a Carlsen attack where one false step could torpedo the whole enterprise.

Caruana plays 29. Re1 in an apparent move to improve the position of the knight on f2. As we wait for Carlsen’s reponse, reader Abhijato Sensarma checks in via email with his take on Caruana’s 25. f4:

Well, I for one am never going to trust the supercomputer about a position’s advantage until it becomes very significant. The move is a reasonable one once you understand the purpose behind it, if not the technically perfect one, which might turn out to be the decisive reason why today’s finale is not a draw! I am secretly rooting for Caruana so that the next Championship can have personal undertones since Carlsen will undoubtedly be the Challenger then. Whatever happens, happens today. If Carslen wins (he does have an advantage, and known for creating something out of nothing), Caruana won’t mind since he would have lost in the tie break in all likeliness. He can come back stronger. This match might be the thriller which will inject urgency into the stagnant chess world once more!

If it is over today, I will have to relay a funny experience I had the other day. I looked at the my fellow classmates during a friendly football match. We were level at five all. “It looks drawish!” I said and my other chess-knowing friend started laughing, and the others were left dumbfounded. With any luck, maybe we’ll get the sixth goal in today!

Caruana’s 25. f4 may have been a mistake. The supercomputer thinks so, anyway. Black’s advantage has spiked dramatically. Hungarian-born grandmaster Dénes Boros is far less harsh: “[It] was a decent move, as it gives fighting chances with the idea of blocking the g6 bishop.”

Surely Carlsen has the initiative after 22. ... Bg6 23. Rc2 f5. Dynamic game, this. Everything that observers underwhelmed by the record streak of draws could have hoped for.

Susan Polgar (@SusanPolgar)

22...Bg6. Carlsen’s idea is clear with f5. For example if 23. Rc2 f5 24. Ng5 Bxg5 25. hxg5 e4. Black is on the attack while Caruana has to be extremely careful as one slight inaccuracy can cost him the game. pic.twitter.com/ngCAf1TXUJ

Carlsen responds with 21. ... Rac8 after a little more than 10 minutes. Black is ahead in development with more than a half-hour advantage in time. Caruana finds himself up against it here with no obvious plan. And after eight minutes the American castles on the queenside (22. O-O-O). The tension, the complications, the tactical potential ... it’s all coming to a head. “This is exciting,” Aronian says of Caruana’s choice. “This is something I didn’t expect at all.”

Considering that Caruana has exhibited generally superior skills in all facets of the match (opening prep, middle game transition, endgames) it would seem a bit odd if he loses this match. #WorldChampionship

The Norwegian supercomputer says black is better for the first time after Caruana’s provocative 21. Rh2!? in Game 12. Photograph: Sesse

Jonathan Tisdall (@GMjtis)

'Incredibly creative but quite dumb' is Simen Agdestein's reaction to 21. Rh2 on the VG broadcast. The move is surely a declaration of violence. This is now looking like the most likely decisive brawl of the match... Is the pressure cooker about to go off? #CarlsenCaruana2018

“The position doesn’t look anything like a draw, which makes me very, very happy,” says world No 11 Levon Aronian. Carlsen has been on the clock for about 10 minutes, but he remains comfortably ahead on time.

Carlsen has developed a dynamic position and is playing for two results. Photograph: Fide

Carlsen continues to enjoy a widening time advantage after 19. Ne4 Nd7 20. Bd3. Carlsen spends about six minutes weighing his 20th move before removing his jacket. He’s still on the clock. Says grandmaster Anish Giri: “White’s position is rather soft for the last game of a world championship, don’t you think?” Garry Kasparov says he believes the current position will yield a decisive result.

Caruana expends another five minutes before playing 18. f3. Says grandmaster grandmaster Judit Polgar in the commentary booth: “It’s very strange because we have special, unique things happening when Fabiano is pushing his pawns.” Carlsen takes just over a minute before answering with 18. ... Nf8.

Susan Polgar (@SusanPolgar)

Caruana play 18. f3 as I suggested earlier. But Carlsen immediately responded with 18...Nf8. I am sure this is very confusing for Caruana. Carlsen is cranking out moves at lightning speed. The idea of Nf8 is to go to d7 to help solidify the c5 square. pic.twitter.com/dDmEzgAFdp

17. g3 and Carlsen immediately responded w/ 17...Be7. This is a very uncomfortable situation for Caruana. Objectively speaking his position is fine. But Carlsen is playing so fast. This can psychologically effect Caruana because he does not know if this is still in Carlsen’s prep pic.twitter.com/RAZ3LH0gWB