Apple's Black Friday discounts may rise to 15%, says firm

Investment firm Kaufman Bros. said Wednesday it believes Apple is preparing to offer its deepest Black Friday discounts ever, but said the move has been accounted for in the company's guidance and will be largely offset by falling commodity costs.

Citing supply chain and distribution checks, analyst Shaw Wu, who recently joined Kaufman from American Technology Research, said this year's Black Friday sale is shaping up to be a bit more aggressive than usual.

"Historically over the last couple years, Apple has offered discounts between 5%-10%," he wrote in a research note to clients. "We think there may be discounts of up to 15% this year on Macs, iPods and accessories. It is not clear to us if iPhone will see a discount as well."

Giving the analyst higher conviction is a flurry of related sales from Apple authorized resellers such as Amazon.com (Black Friday Sale), Best Buy (4-Day Apple Sale), and Mac Mall (57 Hour sale). However, he notes that Apple has not made material pricing concessions to distributors or resellers, which means that those parties are taking a profit margin hit on their own.

"We believe the reason retailers are willing to take a hit is due to the ability of Apple products to draw people into stores and the high likelihood that these customers will purchase high-margin accessories including cables, cases and speakers," Wu wrote.

While Apple's move towards deeper discounts this holiday may draw some concern from investors, the analyst said his checks indicate favorable component pricing on memory, hard drives, LCD panels, and other commodities that should help mitigate or offset revenues lost as a result of the promotions.

In addition, he believes Apple intentionally guided its December quarter downwards in order to "leave room" for the Black Friday sale and other promotions.

Wu initiated coverage of Apple at Kaufman earlier this week with a Buy rating and $120 price target.

AppleInsider has recently compiled a list of Mac discounts being offered as part of early Black Friday sales. MacMall's discounts appear to be the strongest yet, with those from Best Buy a close second in most cases. Last year, MacMall's discounts beat Apple's hands down.

I really hope they offer a discount on the iPhones. I am planning on waiting until after Macworld to buy one, but if they have a good enough discount, I would get it on Friday. Of course, somehow I think it won't be part of the Black Friday discounts.

I really hope they offer a discount on the iPhones. I am planning on waiting until after Macworld to buy one, but if they have a good enough discount, I would get it on Friday. Of course, somehow I think it won't be part of the Black Friday discounts.

I have a few friends hoping for some Leopard discounts. Those are possible along with iLife as usual.

I really hope they offer a discount on the iPhones. I am planning on waiting until after Macworld to buy one, but if they have a good enough discount, I would get it on Friday. Of course, somehow I think it won't be part of the Black Friday discounts.

Since the iPhone only sells for $199 anyway, just how much do you think you would save with a discount? If that little amount makes or breaks your purchase, then you probably can't afford an Phone to begin with. The real cost of the iPhone comes with the required 2 year AT&T service plan. Notice that Apple no longer shows the price of the iPhone, or the cost of the various service plans, on their website.

All well and good, as long as buyers know that Apple charges a huge premium for additional memory. High-quality RAM can be purchased from OWC or Crucial for a fraction of Apple's price; and every new Mac includes illustrated instructions for installing extra memory.

All well and good, as long as buyers know that Apple charges a huge premium for additional memory. High-quality RAM can be purchased from OWC or Crucial for a fraction of Apple's price; and every new Mac includes illustrated instructions for installing extra memory.

Apple's ram prices, while still higher than the market average, have come down on most models. Models that max out at 4 GB of ram, can now be upgraded to 4 GB for $150, which is a lot lower than it was a short time ago. Yes, it's still cheaper to upgrade ram from third party vendors, but not as much as it was, and some people are willing to pay the now smaller premium to Apple rather than deal with it themselves.

The MacPro is not part of this new lower pricing on ram from Apple. That price of that ram from Apple continues to be nothing short of ridiculous.

Apple's ram prices, while still higher than the market average, have come down on most models. Models that max out at 4 GB of ram, can now be upgraded to 4 GB for $150, which is a lot lower than it was a short time ago. Yes, it's still cheaper to upgrade ram from third party vendors, but not as much as it was, and some people are willing to pay the now smaller premium to Apple rather than deal with it themselves.

It doesn't help that Apple insists on using expensive laptop RAM in both the mini and the iMac, both desktop machines. $150 is highway robbery. Someone I know just bought (not upgraded, but bought outright) 4GB of name-brand DDR2-800 RAM with a lifetime warranty for a Hackintosh for $15 after rebate.

I really hope they offer a discount on the iPhones. I am planning on waiting until after Macworld to buy one, but if they have a good enough discount, I would get it on Friday. Of course, somehow I think it won't be part of the Black Friday discounts.

i think you are correct. given that they won't price match it, don't allow employee, corporate or educational discounts on it and blame it on the ATT $200 thing, they aren't likely to offer a BF discount on it. the best you might get is a free case or an itunes card with your purchase.

It doesn't help that Apple insists on using expensive laptop RAM in both the mini and the iMac, both desktop machines. $150 is highway robbery. Someone I know just bought (not upgraded, but bought outright) 4GB of name-brand DDR2-800 RAM with a lifetime warranty for a Hackintosh for $15 after rebate.

Apple's ram prices, while still higher than the market average, have come down on most models. Models that max out at 4 GB of ram, can now be upgraded to 4 GB for $150, which is a lot lower than it was a short time ago. Yes, it's still cheaper to upgrade ram from third party vendors, but not as much as it was, and some people are willing to pay the now smaller premium to Apple rather than deal with it themselves.

The MacPro is not part of this new lower pricing on ram from Apple. That price of that ram from Apple continues to be nothing short of ridiculous.

Apple has indeed gotten within shouting distance of third-party RAM prices for the (current) MB and MB Pro, but elsewhere they're not doing so well.

The MacPro, as you noted, is not competitive ($500 to bring it up to 4GB?!? ), ditto the Mac Mini, where Apple wants $75 to up it to 2GB, whereas Crucial gives you a 2GB kit for $32.

iMac? Apple wants $150 to up the 2GB models to 4GB, $225 to bring the 1GB low-ender up to 4GB. Crucial will give ya a 4GB RAM kit for $56, about a third of that or a quarter, depending on which iMac you have.

And then there's previous gen MacBook Pros and MacBooks. I've been looking to up my early '08 MB Pro to 4 gigs. 4GB RAM kit from Crucial is $56, just like the iMac, and again about a third of what Apple would've charged me had I done it up front with them.

So, while Apple is doing much better on RAM pricing than they used to on the new MBs and MB Pros (and good on them for doing so), they still have a long way to go most everywhere else.

4GB for $15. Is that now easy enough for your flea-speck brain to comprehend?

So, you mean that you bought 4 Gb of ram for $15? No, my "flea-speck brain does not believe you. Maybe you should go back and read the gobbledegook last sentence again, because it doesn't mention who TF you're talking about, Einstein.

What's funny is that this Black Friday Sale is just a one day sale. If I were a stock analyst, I wouldn't be making a stock report and putting too much emphasis on how much they are going to discount their products on a one day sale. there are lots of product updates every year and more profits to be made and when you calculate the recessionary times, etc., that's what i would make a stock report on.

Here's what i see as new products for the new year.

1. 17 inch MacBook Pro update.
2. iMac update
3. MacPro update
4. Snow Leopard
5. All or most of the applications getting a full 64 bit update to coincide with Snow Leopard.
6. XServe update
7. iPhone update mid year
8. iPod update towards the end of the year
9. Maybe a completely new product either hardware or software, or both.

Obviously this is pure speculation. But I am more concerned about the economy as a whole and how it will affect the amount of money going into the market in general.

So, you mean that you bought 4 Gb of ram for $15? No, my "flea-speck brain does not believe you. Maybe you should go back and read the gobbledegook last sentence again, because it doesn't mention who TF you're talking about, Einstein.

We can't help if you don't know how to shop. FYI, Newegg sold that RAM and you can find that deal mentioned on shopping sites if you Googled it. But, no, you're too busy missing "Someone I know..." so you go around using an abbreviated f-bomb. Go ahead and don't believe me. A fool and his money are soon parted, and I bet you're dirt poor thanks to your "brilliance."

We can't help if you don't know how to shop. FYI, Newegg sold that RAM and you can find that deal mentioned on shopping sites if you Googled it. But, no, you're too busy missing "Someone I know..." so you go around using an abbreviated f-bomb. Go ahead and don't believe me. A fool and his money are soon parted, and I bet you're dirt poor thanks to your "brilliance."

Don't know how to shop? I don't need any ram, all of my Macs are maxed out from:

They're better to deal with than Newegg, OWC, etc. If their ram fails, they'll send replacement module(s) IMMEDIATELY, even before they receive the bad ram back, so you don't have a long down time while you wait for the transit times. You probably think that's just stupid, don'tcha.

You still haven't edited that literary gem that I mentioned before, you must be proud of it.

They're better to deal with than Newegg, OWC, etc. If their ram fails, they'll send replacement module(s) IMMEDIATELY, even before they receive the bad ram back, so you don't have a long down time while you wait for the transit times. You probably think that's just stupid, don'tcha.

You still haven't edited that literary gem that I mentioned before, you must be proud of it.

As a matter of fact, it IS stupid, because I've never ever had so much as one RAM module fail. But if you want to keep throwing away money, go right ahead. Perfect proof that a fool and his money are soon parted. I'm sure it makes perfect sense in your mind to spend $70 for 4GB of RAM just so you can have "immediate replacement" instead of just paying $30 for 8GB and holding half for spares. The latter would actually allow truly immediate replacement because you'd already have it in hand instead of waiting for it to arrive by UPS. In fact, buy just 2 or 4GB extra and you could cover all your machines, assuming they all use the same type. Hmm, $15 for each machine plus $15 worth of spares vs. $70 for each and every single machine. Tough choice.

By the way, Shakespeare, it's RAM, not "ram," which anybody with half a brain cell would know. But then again, maybe you are a rocket scientist like you think, working for "nasa."

As a matter of fact, it IS stupid, because I've never ever had so much as one RAM module fail. But if you want to keep throwing away money, go right ahead. Perfect proof that a fool and his money are soon parted. I'm sure it makes perfect sense in your mind to spend $70 for 4GB of RAM just so you can have "immediate replacement" instead of just paying $30 for 8GB and holding half for spares. The latter would actually allow truly immediate replacement because you'd already have it in hand instead of waiting for it to arrive by UPS. In fact, buy just 2 or 4GB extra and you could cover all your machines, assuming they all use the same type. Hmm, $15 for each machine plus $15 worth of spares vs. $70 for each and every single machine. Tough choice.

By the way, Shakespeare, it's RAM, not "ram," which anybody with half a brain cell would know. But then again, maybe you are a rocket scientist like you think, working for "nasa."

Well, junior, the last memory that I bought wasn't available for $15, the best price for 4 gigs of 800 MHz DDR was just under $100, back in July. I can remember paying that much for 96 MB, and, that was a damn good price, at the time, mid 90's. In the early 90's it was even higher, per MB. Memory is like anything else, it can go bad, if you don't know that, then you just learned something.

If you want to buy spare ram just to have it on hand, be my guest, but it isn't necessary. I can get overnight replacement, and not tie up money needlessly. And No, my machines do not all take the same type ram. No Hackintoshes here, you can waste your money on that crap.

BTW, I know it's RAM, and you knew exactly WTF I was talking about.

Oh yeah, before I go, data memory systems is cheaper than Newegg on 4 gigs of 800 MHz DDR, check the prices.

Well, junior, the last memory that I bought wasn't available for $15, the best price for 4 gigs of 800 MHz DDR was just under $100, back in July. I can remember paying that much for 96 MB, and, that was a damn good price, at the time, mid 90's. In the early 90's it was even higher, per MB. Memory is like anything else, it can go bad, if you don't know that, then you just learned something.

Oooh, you're sooo clever. You've been buying this stuff since the early 90s! Such a long memory. Not like some of us "juniors" who remember forking over more than $2000 for an Apple II with 48kB. Forgive me, old wise sage.

Quote:

If you want to buy spare ram just to have it on hand, be my guest, but it isn't necessary. I can get overnight replacement, and not tie up money needlessly. And No, my machines do not all take the same type ram. No Hackintoshes here, you can waste your money on that crap.

I don't need to buy extra RAM to keep on hand because I'm not paranoid about RAM failure. And I don't have any systems where the failure of one module is going to take the whole machine down anyway and leave me with your dreaded "down time." (For someone who thinks himself extremely knowledgeable about writing, it's amazing that you don't know that the correct term is "downtime.") In fact, the only Mac that requires RAM be installed in pairs is the Mac Pro and it's obvious you don't have one since you didn't buy FB-DIMMs. And even then, if you have your systems "maxed out" as you claim, removing one pair will not disable your computer, only reduce the amount of available memory. Any fool knows "lifetime" warranties are nearly worthless for RAM because you'll have to replace it when you buy your next computer anyway, since specifications change yearly. But I guess you have to hang onto your systems a lot longer than I do mine because you pay so much more for them.

As for your hatred of Hackintoshes, my friend's Hackintosh is as functional and as stable as my genuine Macs. Unlike you, I know and admit that even Macs aren't perfect. And he paid a lot less for more speed, memory and expandability than my Macs have.

Quote:

Oh yeah, before I go, data memory systems is cheaper than Newegg on 4 gigs of 800 MHz DDR, check the prices.

First, there's no such thing as 800MHz DDR. At that speed, it's DDR2. Second, you're an idiot and you demonstrate that time and again. Here's what you were either too lazy or too dumb to find. You show me where on this page there's any 2GB memory for $7.50.

Quote:

BTW, I know it's RAM, and you knew exactly WTF I was talking about.

And yet you persist in writing "ram." I guess you must be proud of your ignorance. Still using the f-bomb, too. A sure sign of emotional maturity. Keep replying, Hemingway. I can always use more laughs.

It's not as good as the "Back to school" deal they ran over the Summer, where the edu discount included a free iPod Touch. But, Apple is not famous for low pricing, so what did you expect?

The refurbed models continue to be the best deals on Apple products, and none of them include a Black Friday discount either. We should not forget that the fairly recent phenomenon of Black Friday pricing to entice customers INTO a retail store, does not obligate anyone to offer ridiculously low pricing on anything we want, or their entire inventory of any particular items. That some of this Black Friday pricing has made it to online vendors is quite a bit more costly to any vendor, and they aren't in business to lose money. Prior to the advent of Black Friday, George Washington's birthday was the biggest day in the retail business, and online sales didn't exist.

All summed up, Apple doesn't owe anyone an out of the ordinary deal. Even at that, they had a pretty nice deal for the first 100 customers entering certain Apple Stores today. See, getting the customer into a retail store gives a company the opportunity to sell products aside from the special deals that brought them in to the brick and mortar store to start with. Online sales do not present the same opportunity for Apple. Now, we've come to the point of declaring that if we don't get pampered with special deals, then it sucks. That's both juvenile, and unrealistic.

Oooh, you're sooo clever. You've been buying this stuff since the early 90s! Such a long memory. Not like some of us "juniors" who remember forking over more than $2000 for an Apple II with 48kB. Forgive me, old wise sage.

I don't need to buy extra RAM to keep on hand because I'm not paranoid about RAM failure. And I don't have any systems where the failure of one module is going to take the whole machine down anyway and leave me with your dreaded "down time." (For someone who thinks himself extremely knowledgeable about writing, it's amazing that you don't know that the correct term is "downtime.") In fact, the only Mac that requires RAM be installed in pairs is the Mac Pro and it's obvious you don't have one since you didn't buy FB-DIMMs. And even then, if you have your systems "maxed out" as you claim, removing one pair will not disable your computer, only reduce the amount of available memory. Any fool knows "lifetime" warranties are nearly worthless for RAM because you'll have to replace it when you buy your next computer anyway, since specifications change yearly. But I guess you have to hang onto your systems a lot longer than I do mine because you pay so much more for them.

As for your hatred of Hackintoshes, my friend's Hackintosh is as functional and as stable as my genuine Macs. Unlike you, I know and admit that even Macs aren't perfect. And he paid a lot less for more speed, memory and expandability than my Macs have.

First, there's no such thing as 800MHz DDR. At that speed, it's DDR2. Second, you're an idiot and you demonstrate that time and again. Here's what you were either too lazy or too dumb to find. You show me where on this page there's any 2GB memory for $7.50.

And yet you persist in writing "ram." I guess you must be proud of your ignorance. Still using the f-bomb, too. A sure sign of emotional maturity. Keep replying, Hemingway. I can always use more laughs.

<translation> "I don't know what the hell I'm talking about since AppleInsider forums has no ignore list, but I'll act like I'm ignoring you, read your 'hidden' message and reply to you." </translation>

Not only are you acting like a tool, you show your ignorance. YES, there is an ignore list. So what else are you horribly wrong about? And before you go on with a not-so-pithy response, that was a rhetorical question. So spare us and get your story/facts straight.

Fine, I'm wrong about that. But you know what? I can admit when I am. Zinfella couldn't admit anything. Anything he was wrong about, he just stopped talking about. By all means, if I'm wrong about the rest of what we were talking about, go right ahead and correct me. I insist. Otherwise, please be silent.