The European Commission presented a recovery fund for the EU. Although there a quite some hurdles to be taken, a compromise does not look out of reach. The pooling of liabilities is further completes the European capital market.

The past months have been particularly challenging for the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa). It was hit almost simultaneously by the major drop of hydrocarbon prices and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We have revised our economic projections for India downwards and expect the economy to contract by 2.9% in fiscal 2020/21. The economic stimulus package of 20 lakh crore is expected to prop up growth this fiscal year by 1.8ppts, but more unconventional policy measures (such as debt monetization) seem necessary.

We think most ASEAN economies will enter a deep recession this year. The recovery next year will be modest, held back by weak external demand, social distancing and weak consumer sentiment. Also, ASEAN currencies will face another bout of depreciations.

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.

The Eurozone economy contracted by 3.8% in Q1 due to COVID-19. France, Spain and Italy fared substantially worse. While very weak, these figures are still only the tip of the iceberg. The contraction in Q2 will be considerably sharper.

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.