Poll: Brown Takes Two-Point Lead in Massachusetts

Sen. Scott Brown and democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren are now statistically tied in their race for the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, according to a poll released on Monday.

The Boston Globe’s latest survey in the the contest showed Brown has a 45-to-43 lead over Warren among likely voters, within the four-point margin of error defined as a statistical tie.

Poll watchers had all but given the state to Warren in September, as 11 of 14 polls last month showed her leading the race by two to six points. She had a five-point lead in the Globe’s September poll as well.

Monday’s survey of 583 likely voters was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center for The Globe.

When independents were asked who they would choose if the election were held the day of the poll, they were split evenly — 47-to-47 — showing the race for those still making up their minds is even closer than the overall election.

“The race is a dead heat coming into the final weekend,” said Andrew E. Smith, director center. “A lot of it is out of their hands. I think the presidential election and turnout for the presidential election is going to determine who wins this race.”

Republicans have a third as many registered voters in Massachusetts, a fact that makes Brown’s uphill battle against Warren that much tougher in the overwhelmingly Democratic state.

The even poll numbers call into question how far President Barack Obama can help Warren get elected to the Senate as his own lead in the state has dropped from 27 points to only 14, a 13 point drop from last month.