Since January, 2010, this blog has been dedicated to year-round coverage of the New York theater scene and, particularly, the annual Tony Awards race. The site features commentary on each production and its chances at nominations or wins, with keen insights into voter trends, leading to expert predictions.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Sixth Nomination Predictions

As May 3rd (the date the Tony nominations will be announced) quickly approaches, I wanted to update my list of nomination predictions. I will likely update once or twice more by that date as the final few shows open in anticipation of the official announcement.

Musical
The Scottsboro Boys
Book of Mormon
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Sister Act
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Catch Me if You Can
NO CHANCE:
Elf
The People in the Picture
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

Book
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Scottsboro Boys
Sister Act
The Book of Mormon
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Catch Me if You Can
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
NO CHANCE:
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
The People in the Picture

Score
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
The Scottsboro Boys
Sister Act
The Book of Mormon
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Catch Me if You Can
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Wonderland

Play
War Horse
Good People
A Free Man of Color
A Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
OUTSIDE SHOT:
The Motherfucker With the Hat
Jerusalem
Lombardi
Brief Encounter
NO CHANCE:
Elling
High
The Pitmen Painters

Musical Revival
Anything Goes
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Play Revival
Merchant of Venice
La Bete
Arcadia
The Importance of Being Ernest
OUTSIDE SHOT:
The Normal Heart
Driving Miss Daisy
NO CHANCE:
House of Blue Leaves
Mrs. Warren’s Profession
A Life in the Theatre

Featured Actor in a Play
Mos Def, A Free Man of Color
Tate Donovan, Good People
Damon Daunno, Brief Encounter
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Ernest
David Harbour, Merchant of Venice
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
John McMartin, A Free Man of Color
Richard Easton, Elling
Paul Dano, A Free Man of Color
Byron Jennings, Merchant of Venice

Featured Actress in a Play
Judith Light, Lombardi
Joanna Lumley, La Bete
Dana Ivey, The Importance of Being Earnest
Estelle Parsons, Good People
Renee Elise Goldsberry, Good People
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Sarah Topham, The Importance of Being Earnest
Dorothy Atkinson, Brief Encounter
Nicole Behari, A Free Man of Color
Christina Ricci, Time Stands Still
NO CHANCE:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The House of Blue Leaves
Veanne Cox, A Free Man of Color
Jennifer Coolidge, Elling

Actor in a Musical
Benjamin Walker, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Joshua Henry, The Scottsboro Boys
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Aaron Tveit, Catch Me if You Can
Josh Gad, The Book of Mormon
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Will Swenson, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Daniel Radcliffe, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Colin Donnell, Anything Goes

Actress in a Musical
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes
Sherie Rene Scott, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Janet Dacal, Alice: A New Wonderland
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Rose Hemingway, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Beth Leavel, Baby, It’s You!

Featured Actress in a Musical
Patti LuPone, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Kristine Nielsen, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Karen Mason, Alice: A New Wonderland
Beth Leavel, Elf

Director of a Play
Matthew Warchus, La Bete
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
Anna D. Shapiro, The Motherfucker With the Hat
George C. Wolfe, A Free Man of Color
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Daniel Sullivan, Merchant of Venice
Emma Rice, Brief Encounter
David Leveaux, Arcadia

Set Design of a Play
La Bete
Merchant of Venice
War Horse
Born Yesterday
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Brief Encounter
The House of Blue Leaves
NO CHANCE:
Driving Miss Daisy
Arcadia
The Pitmen Painters

Costume Design of a Play
Lombardi
Born Yesterday
War Horse
La Bete
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Free Man of Color
Merchant of Venice
A Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Arcadia
Mrs Warren’s Profession
NO CHANCE:
House of Blue Leaves

Lighting Design of a Play
La Bete
War Horse
Merchant of Venice
A Free Man of Color
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Brief Encounter
Arcadia
House of Blue Leaves
Driving Miss Daisy

Sound Design of a Play
La Bete
A Free Man of Color
Merchant of Venice
Brief Encounter
OUTSIDE SHOT:
War Horse
Arcadia
A Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
The House of Blue Leaves
The Pitmen Painters

Set Design of a Musical
The Scottsboro Boys
Catch Me if You Can
Woderland: A New Alice
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Sister Act
NO CHANCE:
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes

Costume Design of a Musical
The Scottsboro Boys
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Catch Me If You Can
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes
Sister Act
Wonderland: A New Alice

Lighting Design of a Musical
The Scottsboro Boys
Catch Me if You Can
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Wonderland: A New Alice
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes
Sister Act

Sound Design of a Musical
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Scottsboro Boys
Alice: A New Wonderland
Catch Me if You Can
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes
Sister Act
Priscilla Queen of the Desert

2 comments:

Why do you think that the lighting design of Sister Act has only an outside chance of a nomination? I thought its lighting design was exceptional, from the curtain warmers to the jewel on the disco light and statue of Mary. Of course, I didn't see all the musicals you mentioned as more likely to be nominated.

The other shows are bigger and more "showy" than this one -- more design intensive, particularly Priscilla and Catch Me. The Scottsboro Boys is there because it will likely be nominated on sweep -- that show will be much like "The King's Speech" was at the most recent Oscars in that many things will get nominated on the strength of a few central elements, not necessarily on its own merits. Given the critical panning of both Catch Me and Sister Act, it is hard to call on this one.