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Hear a candidate or one of their surrogates say something untrue? Alert us at
liedetector@thestar.ca
. Throughout the municipal election campaign, we will challenge mayoral candidates and occasionally council candidates on their false claims, misleading statements, and exaggerations. Today, we look at comments the major mayoral candidates made this past week.

Rob Ford

1) In a Thursday interview on CP24: “We had the lowest tax increase than any North American city around.”

False. Toronto’s tax increases during Ford’s tenure were lower than those of most big cities on the continent. But San Antonio, Texas, and Windsor, Ont., both froze property taxes entirely over these four years. Ford sometimes qualifies this claim and compares Toronto only to North American cities “its size,” but he didn’t here.

2) “We have 150 cranes in the sky.”

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False, even if he is allowed a rhetorical conceit. Ford uses “cranes in the sky” as a proxy for the number of buildings under construction, even though they aren’t the same thing; in June 2012, when Toronto had 189 buildings under construction, Ford said there were 189 cranes in the sky. According to the city, however, the number of buildings under construction dropped to 111 in January. That was still tops in North America, but it wasn’t 150.

3) “I’ve saved over a billion dollars.”

False. As the Star has
previously explained
: hundreds of millions of Ford’s claimed savings are phantom “efficiencies” that did not save the city money at all; $200 million of the claimed $1 billion is from the elimination of the car tax, which is not a government “savings” in any traditional sense; $24 million is from hiking user fees, which is money out of people’s pockets — and, crucially, Ford has not counted the
costs
of his other decisions. If he is counting the elimination the car tax, for example, it is only fair to count the imposition of a new $745-million tax to pay for the Scarborough subway extension. The net figure is nowhere close to $1 billion.

4) On CP24 and to reporters: “Created 57,000 jobs.”

Misleading. Ford
began making
such claims in September, when they were more accurate: as of the late summer and early fall, there were indeed between 55,000 and 65,000 more people employed than when Ford became mayor in December 2010, depending on how you did the math.

But by continuing to make the “57,000 jobs” claim, Ford is ignoring the current reality: employment numbers have worsened markedly over the last six months. As of February, only about 6,000 more residents were employed than in Dec. 2010, according to seasonally adjusted city statistics provided to the Star — 1,285,000 versus 1,279,000. By Ford’s logic, then, he has now “created” 6,000 jobs.

It is misleading, finally, to claim that he himself “created” these jobs. That is standard political rhetoric, but economists agree that Toronto mayors have limited influence on employment growth.

5) On CP24: “I’ve created more jobs than any mayor ever has.”

False. By Ford’s definition of “created”— tallying up the increase in the number of total employed residents during a mayor’s term — Mel Lastman “created” more than 60,000 jobs when he served between 1998 and 2003. Barbara Hall was even better, “creating” more than 70,000 jobs between 1994 and 1997.

6) “We’re getting subways built.”

False. Ford can fairly claim to be “getting” one subway built: the replacement for the Scarborough RT, for which he
successfully secured federal funding
. But construction on even that line has not begun, and it is false to say he is building subway
s
, plural. His unfunded proposal for a Sheppard subway was defeated by council.

7) “I have the lowest expense account than any member of council.”

False. Ford’s actual expense account is bigger than those of councillors. He likely meant that his actual expense spending is lowest on council, which is not true either. Ford’s expenses are extremely low for a mayor. But, for good reason, he has spent more money to run the large mayor’s office —
$44,995 in 2011, $19,253 in 2012
— than various councillors spent to run their own smaller offices.

8) “Contracting out garbage; we’ve saved close to $100 million.”

Slight exaggeration. The
seven-year contract
for west-of-Yonge service is expected to save the city about $11 million per year, or a total of $78 million. That is the savings figure used by the city, and the one Ford usually uses. To get to $100 million, you have to include the estimated savings from a hypothetical two-year contract extension council has the option of agreeing to in the future. It’s not a done deal.

Misleading. Both Chow’s campaign and David Soknacki’s campaign make this claim — but the approved 30-year tax property hike for the Scarborough subway will take in $745 million, not $1 billion. Another $165 million will be raised through development charges. Whether those qualify as taxes — U of T municipal finance expert Enid Slack says it’s unclear— it still doesn’t bring the total to $1 billion.

Both campaigns argue vehemently that they will be proven right in the end. “Property acquisition, cost overruns and contract cancellation costs,” Chow spokesman Jamey Heath says, will eventually bring the total to $1 billion. But those costs are yet to be determined, and it is not certain yet that a municipal tax hike would be needed to cover such costs. Regardless, “billion-dollar, 30-year tax hike” makes it sound as though this is the 30-year tax hike that has been approved, and that is not the case.

* * * *

Karen Stintz

1) “When I first arrived at city hall a decade ago, it was dominated by the free-spending, high-taxing ways of the NDP . . . David Miller worked with Ms. Chow and budget chief David Soknacki to raise property taxes at excessive levels . . .”

Misleading. Miller’s 2004 and 2005 tax increases were 3 per cent per year. “Excessive” is entirely subjective, but under Mel Lastman, Miller’s distinctly non-NDP predecessor, tax increases were 5 per cent in 2001, 4.3 per cent in 2002 and 3 per cent in 2003.

2) “David Miller worked with Ms. Chow and budget chief David Soknacki to . . . cripple many of Toronto’s social services . . . “

False. There is no evidence for this claim.

3) “(Chow) has a history of being a double dipper. First, when it came to housing and taxpayer salaries ...”

Misleading. Stintz was referring to Chow and late husband Jack Layton, then a councillor, living in a unit in mixed-income co-op housing between the mid-1980s and 1990. While the co-op itself received a government subsidy, Chow and Layton did not “dip” into any pool of cash: they lived in a “market rent” unit never intended for low-income people, and they did not receive any subsidy money.

4) “(Chow) has a history of being a double dipper ... securing her full Ottawa pension after just six years of MP service and then seeking the mayor’s salary.”

False, while also misleading in more than one way. Chow served as MP for eight years, not six, from 2006 to 2014. The pension is automatically
granted to MPs who serve for six years or more
, so Chow didn’t take special steps to “secure” it. And Chow has quickly pledged to donate hers to charity if she is elected mayor.

5) On Twitter: “I believe in a transit plan that moves us forward as one city. With respect to Olivia Chow she has spent the last seven years in Ottawa.”

Misleading. Chow did indeed spend years in Ottawa, but she wasn’t off ignoring Toronto concerns — she was representing a Toronto riding in Parliament and spent significant time at home. And, again, it was eight years.

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