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Dunkin' Brands Stock Price has doubled since Jan. 2016

DNKN's stock price has increased more than 2x from $39.40/share in January 2016 to $80.90/share in August 2019.The increase was primarily driven by a continuous increase in Total Revenue, continuous buyback and better P/E multiple.Revenue growth is expected to continue in 2019.A positive outlook has driven a rise in the company's price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples.

Dunkin' Brands Stock Price

We break down change in Dunkin' Brands' stock into 4 factors:

DNKN's Stock Price = Revenue x Margins x P/E Multiple / No. of Shares

Notably, from 2016-2019E, DNKN's shares have gained primarily from an increase in Revenues, high reduction in number of shares outstanding, and increase in the P/E multiple.However, Net Income margin is expected to fall slightly by 19 bps (almost 0.2%, 100 basis points or bps = 1%)

Change in Total Revenue

Change in Net Income Margin (Basis Points, 100 bps = 1%)

Change in Shares outstanding

Change in P/E ratio

Dunkin' Brands has seen a steady growth of Revenue

% change in Total Revenue

Total Revenue = [A + B + C + D + E + F]

Dunkin' Donuts U.S. Revenues [A]

Dunkin' Donuts - International Revenues [B]

Baskin-Robbins - U.S. Revenues [C]

Baskin-Robbins - International Revenues [D]

Other Revenues [E]

Advertising fees and related income [F]

Dunkin' Brands P/S multiple has moved quite similar to its peers

Dunkin' Brands P/S ratio

Starbucks P/S ratio

McDonald's P/S ratio

Yum Brands P/S ratio

DNKN's P/S multiple has fallen from 6.1x in Dec 2016 to 5x in Aug 2019 while its P/E multiple has increased from 19.1x in Dec 2016 to 29.2x in Aug 2019 .The company's global peers such as McDonald's and Yum Brands have seen their multiples grow in the last few years. Starbucks' P/S multiple had fallen from 3.9x in Dec 2016 to 3.6x in Dec 2018 before its rise back to 4.6x in Aug 2019 while its P/E multiple fell from 29.9x in Dec 2016 to 19.8x in Dec 2018 before rising back to 33.7x in Aug 2019.McDonald's has seen its P/S mutiple rise from 4.4x in Dec 2016 to 8.1x in Aug 2019 while its P/E multiple has risen from 23.2x in Dec 2016 to 28.5x in Aug 2019 .Yum Brands has seen its P/S mutiple rise from 4x in Dec 2016 to 6.7x in Aug 2019 while its P/E multiple has risen from 16.3x in Dec 2016 to 27.8x in Aug 2019 .As of August 2019, Dunkin Brands commands a higher P/E multiple compared to its major peers except Starbucks, while its P/S multiple as of Aug 2019 is third behind Yum brands and McDonald's.Trefis expects a higher multiple and a positive outlook to bode well for DNKN's stock and fundamentals.

Dunkin' Brands P/E ratio similar to its peers, and has seen an increase in 2019

Dunkin' Brands P/E ratio

Starbucks P/E ratio

McDonald's P/E ratio

Yum Brands P/E ratio

Related Analysis

How has Domino's Fared with respect to other Pizza Chains?Why McDonald's Stock Climbed 2x in 4 Years?Why Starbucks rose by more than 66% in 4 years?What Would Be The Revenue Growth If Chipotle Adds 100 Stores In Europe Within The Next 5 Years?

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