The numbers are in: high hopes for '14 Connecticut home sales go unfulfilled.

When the clocks went forward last March, Connecticut's spring home buying season was off to a start with longer days — and visions of more showings and sales.

Two years of climbing sales and stabilizing prices seemed cause for optimism.

"In 37 years, I can't recall another spring that had so much anticipation," said John M. Zubretsky, president of Weichert, Realtors — The Zubretsky Group in Wethersfield. "All the major forecasters, economists predicted it was going to break loose. Then it went flat, and nothing."

A new report from Connecticut Realtors, the former Connecticut Association of Realtors, prepared for The Courant shows that the promise early in 2014 for a third year of gains in home sales fizzled by the end of the year. Sales of single-family houses were flat in 2014, at 29,693, compared with 29,797 in the previous year.

The association's statistics show that house sales are still below the 32,156 sales in 2007, at the start of the last recession, and the 40,000 level that is considered a healthy market for Connecticut by some real estate experts.

Connecticut Homes Sales

The median sale price — in which half the sales are above and half below — dipped 1.2 percent, to $255,000 from $258,000 in 2013.

"Part of it is because, at least in theshort term, consumers can remember what happened to people who probably shouldn't have bought houses in the last decade and the foreclosures," said Jeffrey P. Cohen, associate professor of real estate and finance at the University of Connecticut's Center for Real Estate in Storrs. "They are being cautious and more conservative before they make a big purchase like a home."

The anticipation of spring sales can be a potent one because, traditionally, it is the busiest season for home sellers and buyers. And it is growing again for 2015 because there was a pick-up in sales last fall, though not enough to boost overall sales numbers.

All the conditions seem to be right for a recovery in the housing market this year: low mortgage rates, less restrictive underwriting requirements, and lower home prices. Construction of new single-family houses also increased in 2014 — a sign of builder confidence in the market — chipping away at the dominance of new apartment construction in recent years.

"The spring market has to be there this year," Zubretsky said. "It's never been non-existent for two years in a row."

Ties To Job Security

The statistics for the past seven years from Connecticut Realtors show double-digit gains in year-over-year sales in both 2012 and 2013, and prices stabilizing in 2013. The statistics are drawn from the Multiple Listing Service as compared with data collectors such as The Warren Group, which tracks sales through public records.

The flurry of activity in 2012 and 2013, experts say, was driven mostly by low interest rates and the expectation that those rates wouldn't last forever. That drew buyers who had been on the sidelines to make purchases, but there is no longer a backlog, agents say.

The surge in apartment construction, especially in the suburbs, is evidence that a sizable chunk of the state's population still would rather have the flexibility that a rental offers, Cohen said.

"Buying a house is a long-term commitment," Cohen said. "In an apartment, it's a year. It gives you more options to look around."

The state's employment picture, though clearly brightening in recent months, still remains a key factor — and a concern — in the purchase of a home, said Donald L. Klepper-Smith, an economist at DataCore Partners Inc. in New Haven.

A recent report from the state Labor Department showed that job growth in 2014 was the strongest it had been since 1998. But lower-wage, lower-skilled jobs are growing the fastest, and a cross-section of people who once had middle-class jobs in offices are now in part-time retail jobs.

Job security is key to making gains in the housing market. Buyers typically aren't willing to make major purchases such as a house unless they know they can get another job if they lose theirs.

Klepper-Smith said confidence in the state's current economic recovery has not matched previous recoveries.

"And," Klepper-Smith said, "we may not meet the level of job security of previous recoveries."

Looking Ahead

Despite a disappointing year for sales, real estate agents say houses did sell in 2014, matching the levels of the previous year. Agents say fewer deals fell apart in 2014 over financing or inspections than in either of the two previous years.

Most of the activity was by first-time home buyers in the $250,000-to-$450,000 range. Agents say more expensive houses that would typically fall into the "move up" category are not moving as quickly as homeowners weigh they options, some staying put, not wanting to take on the costs of a larger home.

First-time home buyer Geoffrey Matous began looking at houses in November. After seeing a half-dozen or so, he found one near the center of West Hartford.

Matous, 30, said he moved to the Hartford area from Stamford for his job as a manager at a medical device company. He was looking for a starter home that was in "move in" condition, and when he saw the 1930s Cape with its wood floors, he put in an offer the next day.

He paid $250,000 for the three-bedroom house, very close to what the sellers were asking. The house had been on the market for a couple of months. He said he envisions appliance upgrades in the kitchen and perhaps finishing off the basement.

"They had a very fair listing price," Matous said. "I didn't feel it was overly strong buyers or sellers market."

Paula Fahy Ostop, a real estate agent at Ellyn Marshall & Associates/William Raveis in West Hartford, said gains in sales also are being held back by sellers seeking prices that buyers aren't willing to pay.

Some of those sellers bought at the height of the market and still have high mortgage balances. Some have seen the value of their property decline, making what they owe on their mortgage more than for what the home now might reasonably sell.

"When you do see a house come on that is in good condition and priced aggressively, you don't see it on the market for long," Ostop said.

In a typical housing recovery, sales gain momentum first, followed by increases in prices. The overall median price statistics from the Connecticut Realtors do not necessarily mean that the values of all homes are slipping. The market can have wide differences from town to town, even neighborhood to neighborhood.

Zubretsky, the Wethersfield real estate agent, said sellers have to better match what buyers are willing to pay.

"Prices aren't going up 25 percent if you wait a year," Zubretsky said, referring to the big price gains in the 2000s. "We're probably not going to see that again in our lifetime."