First thing’s first: cross off all the titles that weren’t also nominated for best director and best editor. That leaves four films with an actual chance to win: The Big Short, Spotlight, Mad Max, and The Revenant. Two of those are deceptively angry issue films with modest budgets and ensemble casts, two are action-packed spectaculars featuring big stars, big vistas, and big box-office returns. What does Hollywood’s establishment want 2016 to be remembered for: hard-hitting exposés or big-canvas moviemaking? Normally, the so-called precursor awards would give us a hint, but this year’s results have been all over the dang place. Spotlight won Screen Actors Guild ensemble honors, along with a pile of critics’ awards; Mad Max chased down most of the other critics’ prizes; The Big Short notched the very predictive Producers Guild of America award; and The Revenant snared the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the Directors Guild award. After the BAFTAs, much of the smart (cynical?) money moved into The Revenant’s column, but this one’s as close as it gets.

Who should win: Oh, I don’t know! Spotlight, maybe? The Revenant? The Big Short? Mad Max: Fury Road? Maybe we all win because there were that many good movies this year?Who will win:The Revenant? Probably? It’s really hard to tell, guys. — Mike Hogan

When Ridley Scott failed to score a nomination for The Martian it threw this category a bit to the winds, and there’s still plenty of room for surprise, with the three best-picture favorites—The Revenant, The Big Short, and Spotlight—all represented and favorite Mad Max: Fury Road still traveling on plenty of sentimental steam. But when last year’s winner Iñárritu won the D.G.A. and BAFTA prizes, it seemed to clear a path to make him the first back-to-back best-director winner since Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1950 and 1951.

Who should win: George Miller. The technical accomplishment and verve of Mad Max ought to be a model for any director of any age.Who will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu. Hard to argue with history—and a win for the Mexican-born director could assuage a bit of that #OscarsSoWhite guilt. — Katey Rich

Last year’s winner. A five-time nominee vying for his first victory. A major movie star whose last leading-actor nomination was nearly 20 years ago. A critical darling enjoying his first nomination as a lead. And a much-lauded TV star tackling his first true starring film role. All are vying for this prize, but the narrative is mostly focused on that five-time nominee, perpetual also-ran Leonardo DiCaprio. He’s won the three major awards leading up to the Oscar—the Golden Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA—so he has a lot of momentum going into Sunday’s ceremony.

Who should win: As difficult as DiCaprio’s liver-eating, frigid-water-braving performance was on the technical merits, Michael Fassbender is so quick and captivating in handling Steve Jobs’s voluble script that we’d give the award to him. Sorry, Leo.Who will win: Not that sorry, though, because, it doesn’t really matter. Leonardo DiCaprio is finally going to win an Oscar this year. — Richard Lawson

Yes, Cate Blanchett is typically brilliant—if chilly—in Carol, and yes, they should (and probably will) base acting courses on Charlotte Rampling’s controlled precision in 45 Years. And yeah, J.Law got that Golden Globe for Joy. But if anyone other than Brie Larson wins this award, it will be a major-league upset. And rightly so! She’s a revelation in Room, both during its claustrophobic first half, where she’s locked in a shed for years on end with her insanely adorable son (played by newly minted red-carpet mascot Jacob Tremblay), and during its bittersweet back half, where (spoiler alert) she learns that true healing only begins with physical escape. If there’s a speed bump on the Brie Larson Oscar Expressway, it’s Saoirse Ronan, whose sweet, winning performance in the Irish-immigrant drama Brooklyn warmed awards-screener households across the land this holiday season.

Who should win: Brie Larson, but seriously, see BrooklynWho will win: Brie Larson. —M.H.

After a fascinating pre-nominations derby of skilled actors in scene-stealing roles competing in a wide-open category, it all became so simple the night of the Golden Globes, when Sylvester Stallone received a standing ovation as he rose to accept his award, and the hearts of Hollywood seemed fully pinned to their sleeves. None of his competition seemed to have the heart to put up a fight against the Italian Stallion and who can blame them? Creed, cruelly shut out of the rest of the Oscar derby, deserves its moment here as much as Stallone does.

Who should win: Call us crazy, but Tom Hardy’s mumbling, menacing villain turn in The Revenant is yet another argument for why he’s one of the greatest screen actors to emerge in recent years.Who will win: Stallone (and truth be told, he deserves it, too). —K.R.

This is one of the trickiest categories to call right now, as there are two equally compelling competing narratives. One is that Alicia Vikander, who was in pretty much every movie made in 2015, will be rewarded for her breakthrough year in the form of a win for her strong performance (which was really a lead) in The Danish Girl. The other is that Kate Winslet, who has already won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA this awards season, will pick up her second trophy. But, Vikander was not nominated in supporting actress at the Globes or the BAFTAs, so Winslet has only gone up against Vikander once, at the SAGs, and lost. Oscar night will only be their second showdown.

Who should win: Forget both of those plotlines and give the prize to Rooney Mara, who is the pensive, soulful center of the stunning Carol.Who will win: Given all the momentum for Leo and everyone’s love of seeing him and Kate together, we’re gonna go ahead and guess that Kate Winslet will be the (slight) upset winner here. — R.L.

This category rocks because it recognizes two excellent films that should’ve gotten much more love: Ex Machina, Alex Garland’s sci-fi puzzle box starring Domhall Gleason, Oscar Isaac, and Alicia Vikander as an artificial-intelligence femme fatale; and Straight Outta Compton, the gangsta-rap origin story that had the power to pop a cap in the #OscarsSoWhite narrative, had the A.M.P.A.S. voting body only answered its pager call. Instead, the latter’s all-white writing team scored the film’s only nomination. Oops! Anyway, neither of those movies is going to win here, and neither is Bridge of Spies, despite the elevating presence of Joel and Ethan Coen. This one’s going to Spotlight’s Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, who have won every precursor you can think of, and it may well be the only statuette the onetime “Oscar front-runner” will take home all night.

A category that promises “unoriginality” right in its title is crammed with great, fresh choices this year, from Emma Donoghue’s skillful navigation of her own novel to Drew Goddard’s energetic embrace of math nerdery to Phyllis Nagy‘s personal 18-year journey to bring Carol to the screen. But as the three-way best-picture race has clambered along and maybe settled in favor of The Revenant, this has started to look like the one slam-dunk place to reward The Big Short, which derives much of its success from McKay and Randolph’s thoughtful adaptation of Michael Lewis’s book. Like Spotlight in the other screenplay category, this could wind up being the only win for what’s still a legitimate best-picture contender.

Who should win: With all its focus on Matt Damon, The Martian is overlooked for being a massive ensemble piece, and Goddard carves out so many characters and story lines in a script that still feels fleet and funny.Who will win:The Big Short, which will make “Oscar-winning Step Brothers director Adam McKay” a wonderful reality. — K.R.

While praises have been sung for each of these nominees, for good reason, we can probably guess that The Hateful Eight and, sadly, Carol aren’t really contenders here. With the remaining three, it comes down to whether The Revenant is as strong a candidate as it’s looking, whether the Academy wants to finally give Roger Deakins his long overdue Oscar, or whether Mad Max is destined to go home with all the technical awards. (Which it could!)

Who should win: Give the damn thing to Deakins already. His career has been remarkable, and he elevated Sicario from lurid thriller to work of art.Who will win: Lubezki will break records and win his third Oscar in three years (he won last year for Birdman and the year before for Gravity) for The Revenant. — R.L.

Notice anything about those first two nominees? They’re the same person! That’s 12-time nominee and three-time winner Sandy Powell, ladies and gentlemen, and given her track record she sure looks like the person to beat in this category. That is, unless she splits the vote, leaving an open lane for The Revenant’s Jacqueline West or, as many online pundits would have it, Mad Max: Fury Road’s Jenny Beavan. The only problem with that theory is that Powell has been double-nominated before and won, for 1998’s Shakespeare in Love. Since Cinderella racked up $200 million at the box office and wasn’t nominated anywhere else, I have a feeling the Academy will take this opportunity to justify its visit to the ball.

Mad Max is poised to sweep many of the technical categories, and this one is no exception—who can expect the polished period restraint of The Danish Girl or Bridge of Spies, or the wild and wooly outdoors of The Revenant and The Martian (what, we give God an Oscar?), to match the inventive chaos of the Fury Road? It wins for the design of Furiosa’s rig alone.

What should win:Mad Max’s production design is awaited in Valhalla.What will win: And on Oscar night, it will get there. — K.R.

Photo: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Studios.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

The RevenantThe 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and DisappearedMad Max: Fury Road

If anyone in America has seen The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared, we haven’t met them, but at least the makeup branch of the Academy appreciated the simulated aging in the history-spanning film. Still, this race is probably between the other two nominated movies.

What should win: What the hell, give the thing to The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared. It’d mostly be fun to hear the presenter(s) say the title.What will win: This is one of the several technical categories that Mad Max seems likely to win. — R.L.

This is one of many technical categories that Mad Max: Fury Road, based on what we’ve seen so far during awards season, is almost guaranteed to win. And really, can you argue with that? All that weather and water and smoke and desert and driving. And that fellow with the guitar. It’s something, I tell you. But give the other contenders their due: these were some fine-looking pictures! One of them managed to look like the original Star Wars and a perfectly up-to-date 2016 space adventure. Others deposited Matt Damon on Mars and Leo DiCaprio on the old American frontier, convincingly. And the last turned Alicia Vikander into a sexy robot. Good year all around for visual effects!

The Big Short picked up a few critics’ prizes for this early on, suggesting that the whiz-bang speed of the film was wowing people more than anything. But the consensus has finally settled on an even more dazzling, and deserving, contender in Mad Max: Fury Road. As the only solo female contender in the category (Star Wars team Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey are also nominated), and director George Miller’s wife, Margaret Sixel is the rare nominee in a technical category with a truly compelling narrative that appeals to voters without any knowledge of editing whatsoever. Plus, that dust storm scene? One for the ages.

Who should win: As invisible as a newspaper editor’s work and just as invaluable, Tom McArdle’s careful cobbling together of Spotlight deserves more attention.Who will win: But who’s going to deny the force behind one of the best action movies of recent years? Not the Academy. — K.R.

A strong selection of nominees, from first-timers to generation-defining veterans. Jóhannsson gave Scario plenty of new-school bwaaamp and portent, while Williams revisited his most iconic score (in an oeuvre astoundingly stocked with iconic scores) and added to the freshness and excitement of The Force Awakens. As Williams was busy doing that, Thomas Newman filled in with Steven Spielberg, lending a melancholy lilt to Bridge of Spies. Carter Burwell gave Carol deep ache and a tremble of hope, while Morricone lent The Hateful Eight a majesty it might not otherwise have had.

Who should win: Carter Burwell has composed some of the loveliest, most evocative film scores of the last 30 years. But he’d never even been nominated for an Oscar before Carol. He’s due.Who will win: Yeah, but, Ennio Morricone is a legend in his 80s, and his Hateful Eight score was great, so he’ll win. — R.L.

I take music very seriously, and to me the obvious choice for Best Original Song in a Motion Picture is the one that has wowed critics, seduced Grammy voters, and hit the Top 10 not just here in the States but in Canada, the U.K., Ireland, and seven other countries besides. Interestingly, that song—The Weeknd’s “Earned It,” from Fifty Shades of Grey—probably won’t win the Academy Award. Why not? Because “Til It Happens to You,” which never made it onto the Billboard Top 100, has three crucial advantages among voters: it’s co-written by eight-time Oscar nominee Diane Warren; it’s sung by Lady Gaga, whose album with Tony Bennett exposed her to a whole new generation; and Gaga herself is fresh off a Golden Globe win, so she feels like a winner. That’s showbiz!

What should win: “Earned It”What will win: “Til It Happens to You” — M.H.

Sound mixing: it’s not really what you hear (that’s the sound editing guys, below) but how you hear them, from choices about which effect to make the loudest to moments of silence that can be just as dramatic.

What should win: Vroom vroom. Mad Max: Fury Road!What will win: In a technical category sweep that many are predicting, the War Boys should have no trouble taking this one. — K.R.

Sound editing is basically sound effects, all those bone crunches and motor roars and bullet pings and whatnot.

What should win: What had more of all that in 2015 than Mad Max: Fury Road?What will win: The Academy knows that, too. Mad Max: Fury Road ought to win here. — R.L.

Photo: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Studios.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Inside OutAnomalisaShaun the Sheep MovieBoy and the WorldWhen Marnie Was There

This is a two-picture race between Inside Out, a brilliant and inventive family-friendly feature from Pixar (Toy Story, Wall-E), and Anomalisa, a brilliant and inventive family-unfriendly feature from Charlie Kaufman (Being John Malkovich, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind). Anybody want to bet on Kaufman in this matchup? Yeah, me neither. But a misanthrope can dream, can’t he?

What should win: If I ruled the world, Anomalisa. Although, truly, Inside Out is Pixar at its best.What will win:Inside Out. Bet on it. — M.H.

Yes, the stereotype is true; many of these documentaries are depressing, from looks at music careers beset by hardship (Amy, What Happened, Miss Simone?) to stories of unbelievable violence in times of civil war (Cartel Land, The Look of Silence) to an on-the-ground look at Ukraine’s protests that led to a governmental change . . . for now. But there’s a lot of variety and incredible filmmaking here as well, and the two perceived front-runners—Amy and The Look of Silence—could not be more different in style; Amy director Asif Kapadia compiles reams of archival footage to tell the tragic story of Amy Winehouse, while in The Look of Silence Joshua Oppenheimer continues the story he began in The Act of Killing to present interviews with survivors, and perpetrators, of the Indonesian genocide. How can someone possibly choose between the two? Beats us.

Who should win:The Act of Killing lost to the feel-good 20 Feet from Stardom. A win here would be a deserving chance to make up for it.Who will win: But Amy, far more sophisticated than most docs about famous people, seems destined for a deserving win instead. — K.R.

Photo: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Son of SaulMustangA WarEmbrace of the SerpentTheeb

Mustang was rapturously received, while A War tells an urgent story about contemporary armed conflict. Theeb is a sweeping period drama about a far-flung place, and Embrace of the Serpent has the arty cred. Son of Saul is a harrowing Holocaust drama. Which could, and often does, trump all. But Mustang does seem to be making a late break for it . . .

Who should win: Bursting with life and beautifully rendered, we’d love to see the empowering Mustang take home the trophy.Who will win: Exquisitely made and brutal to watch, Son of Saul is the conservative choice here. But it’s so hard to watch that we’re going to call this as a Mustang upset. — R.L.

Photo: Courtesy of Cohen Media Group.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Bear StoryPrologueSanjay’s Super TeamWe Can’t Live Without CosmosWorld of Tomorrow

Rolling Stone’s David Ehrlich has made a big fuss about the low-fi but longish World of Tomorrow, which he found existentially irresistible. Me? Not so much. Plus, he went all-in for Carol and look how that turned out. Sanjay’s Super Team is a worthy Pixar side project, whereas Prologue is more like a college art project, but sign me up for the inventive animation of Bear Story, a wordless retelling of an urban bear’s family saga, and the sly storytelling of We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, which charts the loving relationship of two male Russian cosmonauts.

What should win:Bear StoryWhat will win:World of Tomorrow— M.H.

Photo: Courtesy of Don Hertzfeldt.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Ave MariaDay OneEverything Will Be OkayShokStutterer

Two of these films, the charming Israeli culture-clash story Ave Maria and the little English romance Stutterer, won’t actively ruin your day—and Ave Maria’s addressing of major political issues in a charming issue could give it an edge here. But there’s far more power in Shok, a story about boys in Kosovo caught up in that country’s war and destructive ethnic cleansing, and especially Everything Will Be Okay, which starts as a story about a divorced father spending the day with his daughter and slowly, methodically devolves into something far more heartbreaking.

What should win:Everything Will Be Okay, on the power of young actress Julia Pointner’s ferocious performance alone.What will win:Shok has the gut-punch factor that will likely put it over the top. — K.R.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Body Team 12Chau, Beyond the LinesClaude Lanzmann: Spectres of the ShoahA Girl in the RiverLast Day of Freedom

Dealing with Ebola, birth defects, the Holocaust, the death penalty, and honor killings, all of these shorts are pretty heavy. But, something’s gotta win!

What should win:Body Team 12, about some beyond-brave people who worked as body disposers during Libera’s Ebola outbreak, tells a fascinating story.What will win: We’d guess Body Team 12 will grip the Academy and emerge victorious. — R.L.