Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage

Transcription

1 TDWI research First Quarter 2014 BEST PRACTICES REPORT Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage By Fern Halper Co-sponsored by: tdwi.org

2 TDWI research BEST PRACTICES REPORT First Quarter 2014 Predictive Analytics for Business Advantages By Fern Halper Table of Contents Research Methodology and Demographics 3 Executive Summary 4 Predictive Analytics: A Technology Whose Time Has Come 5 Business Intelligence versus Predictive Analytics 6 Drivers for Predictive Analytics 6 The State of Predictive Analytics 7 Predictive Analytics Adoption 7 Use Cases for Predictive Analytics 8 Data, Data, Data 9 Challenges and Barriers to Adoption 11 Current Value 13 User Skills and Delivery Models 14 Say Hello to the Business User 14 Get Ready for a Different Skill Set 15 Operationalizing Predictive Analytics 16 Tools, Techniques, and Processes 17 Top Techniques 17 Key Features and Processes Supporting Predictive Analytics Infrastructure for Predictive Analytics 20 Big Data and Predictive Analytics 22 What Drives Measurable Value? 23 Vendor Predictive Analytics Solutions 25 Recommendations 27 Research Sponsors by TDWI (The Data Warehousing Institute TM ), a division of 1105 Media, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproductions in whole or in part are prohibited except by written permission. requests or feedback to Product and company names mentioned herein may be trademarks and/or registered trademarks of their respective companies. tdwi.org 1

3 Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage About the Author FERN HALPER is director of TDWI Research for advanced analytics, focusing on predictive analytics, social media analysis, text analytics, cloud computing, and other big data analytics approaches. She has more than 20 years of experience in data and business analysis, and has published numerous articles on data mining and information technology. Halper is co-author of Dummies books on cloud computing, hybrid cloud, service-oriented architecture, and service management, and Big Data for Dummies. She has been a partner at industry analyst firm Hurwitz & Associates and a lead analyst for Bell Labs. Her Ph.D. is from Texas A&M University. You can reach her at About TDWI TDWI, a division of 1105 Media, Inc., is the premier provider of in-depth, high-quality education and research in the business intelligence and data warehousing industry. TDWI is dedicated to educating business and information technology professionals about the best practices, strategies, techniques, and tools required to successfully design, build, maintain, and enhance business intelligence and data warehousing solutions. TDWI also fosters the advancement of business intelligence and data warehousing research and contributes to knowledge transfer and the professional development of its members. TDWI offers a worldwide membership program, five major educational conferences, topical educational seminars, role-based training, onsite courses, certification, solution provider partnerships, an awards program for best practices, live Webinars, resourceful publications, an in-depth research program, and a comprehensive Web site, tdwi.org. About the TDWI Best Practices Reports Series This series is designed to educate technical and business professionals about new business intelligence technologies, concepts, or approaches that address a significant problem or issue. Research for the reports is conducted via interviews with industry experts and leading-edge user companies and is supplemented by surveys of business intelligence professionals. To support the program, TDWI seeks vendors that collectively wish to evangelize a new approach to solving business intelligence problems or an emerging technology discipline. By banding together, sponsors can validate a new market niche and educate organizations about alternative solutions to critical business intelligence issues. Please contact TDWI Research Director Fern Halper to suggest a topic that meets these requirements. Acknowledgments TDWI would like to thank many people who contributed to this report. First, we appreciate the many users who responded to our survey, especially those who responded to our requests for phone interviews. Second, our report sponsors, who diligently reviewed outlines, survey questions, and report drafts. Finally, we would like to recognize TDWI s production team: Jennifer Agee, Bill Grimmer, and Denelle Hanlon. Sponsors Actuate, Alteryx, Pentaho, SAP, and Tableau Software sponsored the research for this report. 2 TDWI research

4 Research Methodology and Demographics Research Methodology and Demographics Report Scope. Predictive analytics is fast becoming a decisive advantage for achieving a range of desired business outcomes, including higher customer profitability, stickier websites, and more efficient and effective operations. Predictive analytics involves methods and technologies for organizations to spot patterns and trends in data, test large numbers of variables, develop and score models, and mine data for unexpected insights. This report examines users drivers, experiences, and best practices for improving business advantage with predictive analytics. Survey Methodology. In August 2013, TDWI sent an invitation via to business and IT executives; VPs and directors of BI, analytics, and data warehousing; business and data analysts; data scientists; IT application managers; and other BI/DW professionals, asking them to complete an Internet-based survey. The invitation was also delivered via websites, newsletters, and publications from TDWI. The survey drew 580 responses. From these, we excluded incomplete responses as well as some respondents who identified themselves as vendors or academics. The resulting 373 responses form the core data sample for this report. Of these, 52% were investigating the technology (20% of these were engaged in a predictive activity), 34% were actively using it, and 14% had no plans for it. Survey Demographics. The vast majority of survey respondents are business sponsors or users (66%). Included in this group are executives as well as business analysts, data scientists, and others involved in data analysis. The remainder consists of IT professionals (8%) and those who identified as consultants (26%). We asked consultants to fill out the survey with a recent client in mind. Respondents from consulting and professional services organizations made up the largest industry segment (19%), with software/internet services (14%) and financial services and healthcare (8%) next highest. Most of the respondents reside in the United States (47%), followed by Europe (18%) and Asia (11%). Other Research Methods. TDWI conducted telephone interviews with business and IT executives, VPs and directors of BI, and experts in predictive analytics. TDWI also received briefings from vendors that offer related products and services. Position Industry Business sponsors/users 66% Consultants 26% Corporate IT professionals 8% Consulting/professional services 19% Software/Internet 14% Financial services 8% Healthcare 8% Government 6% Telecommunications 5% Retail/wholesale/distribution 4% Insurance 4% Computer manufacturing 3% Education 3% Utilities 3% Transportation/logistics 3% Manufacturing (non-computers) 2% Media/entertainment/publishing 2% Other 16% ( Other consists of multiple industries, each represented by 2% or less of respondents.) Geography United States 47% Europe 18% Asia 11% Canada 10% Australia 7% Central or South America 4% Africa 2% Middle East 1% Company Size by Revenue Less than $100 million 15% $ million 11% $500 million $1 billion 7% $1 10 billion 22% More than $10 billion 17% Unable to disclose 17% Don t know 11% Based on 373 survey respondents. tdwi.org 3

5 Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage Predictive analytics has finally become mainstream. It is being used by organizations from marketing and sales to finance and operations to achieve better business performance. There is a definite shift in the builder and consumer of predictive analytics models. Executive Summary To compete effectively in an era in which advantages are ephemeral, companies need to move beyond historical, rear-view understandings of business performance and customer behavior and become more proactive. Organizations today want to be predictive; they want to gain information and insight from data that enables them to detect patterns and trends, anticipate events, spot anomalies, forecast using what-if simulations, and learn of changes in customer behavior so that staff can take actions that lead to desired business outcomes. Success in being predictive and proactive can be a game changer for many business functions and operations, including marketing and sales, operations management, finance, and risk management. Although it has been around for decades, predictive analytics is a technology whose time has finally come. A variety of market forces have joined to make this possible, including an increase in computing power, a better understanding of the value of the technology, the rise of certain economic forces, and the advent of big data. Companies are looking to use the technology to predict trends and understand behavior for better business performance. Forward-looking companies are using predictive analytics across a range of disparate data types to achieve greater value. Companies are looking to also deploy predictive analytics against their big data. Predictive analytics is also being operationalized more frequently as part of a business process. Predictive analytics complements business intelligence and data discovery, and can enable organizations to go beyond the analytic complexity limits of many online analytical processing (OLAP) implementations. It is evolving from a specialized activity once utilized only among elite firms and users to one that could become mainstream across industries and market sectors. This TDWI Best Practices Report focuses on how organizations can and are using predictive analytics to derive business value. It provides in-depth survey analysis of current strategies and future trends for predictive analytics across both organizational and technical dimensions including organizational culture, infrastructure, data, and processes. It looks at the features and functionalities companies are using for predictive analytics and the infrastructure trends in this space. The report offers recommendations and best practices for successfully implementing predictive analytics in the organization. TDWI Research finds a shift occurring in the predictive analytics user base. No longer is predictive analytics the realm of statisticians and mathematicians. There is a definite trend toward business analysts and other business users making use of this technology. Marketing and sales are big current users of predictive analytics and market analysts are making use of the technology. Therefore, the report also looks at the skills necessary to perform predictive analytics and how the technology can be utilized and operationalized across the organization. It explores cultural and business issues involved with making predictive analytics possible. A unique feature of this report is its examination of the characteristics of companies that have actually measured either top-line or bottom-line impact with predictive analytics. In other words, it explores how those companies compare against those that haven t measured value. 4 TDWI research

6 A Technology Whose Time has Come Predictive Analytics: A Technology Whose Time has Come Predictive analytics a statistical or data mining solution consisting of algorithms and techniques that can be used on both structured and unstructured data to determine outcomes is certainly not a new technology. In fact, it has been used on structured data for decades. However, market adoption and visibility of the technology is increasing for a number of reasons: Computing power increases. Processing speed and memory have been increasing at an exponential rate. This has been publicized by the popular press. For instance, TIME magazine noted that the average smartphone in 2012 had more computing power than Apollo 11 did when it went to the moon in Computing power is also cheaper. What does higher computing power at a lower cost mean for predictive analytics? In the past, it might have taken hours or days to run a predictive model that now takes minutes. Historically, it was often difficult to afford the computing power needed to interpret data that might be changing in real time. The lack of affordable computing power also made it difficult to integrate the output of a model into a business process, i.e., to operationalize it. With computing power increasing and the price per CPU dropping, predictive analytics is now much more practical for organizations to use. Value is better understood. As companies put a solid BI foundation in place, they begin to look for other ways to derive value from their data. Many companies want to take BI to the next level. In fact, more than 90% of organizations that responded to this best practices survey and had a predictive analytics initiative either under investigation or under way feel their enterprise has a solid BI foundation in place. These organizations want to understand what actions their customers will take. They want to better predict failures in their infrastructure. They understand the value of predictive analytics. Economic considerations. The recession has affected how businesses operate. Increasingly, organizations realize that data is a competitive asset and that predictive analytics can be an important tool in the analytics arsenal to help achieve business advantage. Adopters realize that it is not enough to look in the rearview mirror to gain insight and remain competitive. To be successful in a competitive environment, companies must utilize data and analytics to its fullest advantage. In fact, improving business performance was cited as a top driver for predictive analytics by survey respondents (see Figure 1, page 7). Big data fuels the fire. As the amount of data continues to explode, enterprises are looking for ways to more effectively manage and analyze it for competitive advantage. Predictive analytics has been cited as a key form of analytics for big data. This has helped to drive the popularity of the technology. For example, 73% of companies surveyed are utilizing predictive analytics on a big data initiative. Ease of use. As the market becomes increasingly aware of the power of predictive analytics, vendors are trying to make predictive analytics easier to use and offer it in a way that is consumable by a variety of end users. Many vendors have tried to make predictive analytics more user friendly by automating some model-building capabilities. They are including better visualization capabilities to aid in pattern detection. They have also introduced ways to operationalize predictive analytics in business processes, which has opened up the technology to more end users. For example, results of a model to predict churn can be operationalized as part of a business process that includes the call center. The call center agent sees the results of the model and acts on it during a call without even necessarily knowing that a predictive model was at work behind the scenes. Such capabilities have helped to drive the adoption of predictive analytics. Although it has taken some time, predictive analytics is finally becoming a mainstream technology. 1 Richard Stengel [2012]. Making Sense of our Wireless World, TIME online, August 27. tdwi.org 5

7 Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage Predictive analytics is deeper and more proactive than traditional BI. Business Intelligence versus Predictive Analytics Potential users getting started with predictive analytics want to know: What s the difference between predictive analytics and business intelligence (BI)? Predictive analytics differs from traditional or descriptive BI in a number of ways. BI does a good job of slicing and dicing data to help answer questions such as what happened or what is happening, and perhaps even why it happened. However, BI generally provides static reports or dashboards and can be inflexible. With predictive analytics, however, users can estimate outcomes (often called targets) of interest. Outcomes might include: Who will disconnect a service? How much will something increase in value? Predictive analytics is deeper, more proactive, and doesn t require a predefined cube data structure. Some people get caught up in terminology and arguments such as whether predictive analytics is a subset of BI. One way to think about the relationship between BI and predictive analytics is to consider the spectrum of analysis techniques: from static, historical reporting through more advanced techniques that move from reactive to proactive, and from historical to future. This is where predictive analytics comes into the picture. It is one of a number of analytics techniques that can be much more sophisticated than descriptive techniques (such as reporting or dashboards). Drivers for Predictive Analytics There are numerous reasons why the market for predictive analytics is increasing, but what are the drivers for actual user adoption of the technology? We asked respondents who were either utilizing the technology now or actively investigating it to score the importance of several drivers for predictive analytics. On the five-point scale, 1 was extremely unimportant and 5 was extremely important. Drivers centered on various aspects of the business such as customer understanding, operations efficiency, product development, and innovation (see Figure 1). Drivers for predictive analytics include understanding behavior and trends. Understanding trends and behaviors ranks high. At the top of the list of drivers was predicting trends (3.95), followed closely by understanding customers (3.93) and predicting behavior (3.85). Clearly, respondents are interested in predictive analytics ability to discern trends and patterns in data for a variety of reasons, one of which is understanding customers and customer behavior. In fact, customer-related analytics such as retention analysis and direct marketing are a top use case for predictive analytics. Business process reasons are also important. In addition to understanding trends and behaviors, respondents were also interested in using predictive analytics to drive better business performance (3.89), strategic decisions (3.85), and operational efficiency (3.78). Although there was little difference in the rating for the top drivers between those using predictive analytics now and those investigating it, it is interesting to compare the top drivers to the lower-rated drivers. For instance, respondents from both groups seemed less driven by more forward-looking uses of the technology (such as responding faster to change or using predictive analytics as a competitive differentiator) than they were about helping to drive better business performance. This was the case regardless of how long the respondent had been using the technology and indicates that predictive analytics is still relatively new for most organizations using it. 6 TDWI research

8 The State of Predictive Analytics Please rate the drivers for predictive analytics in your organization or company on a scale of 1 5, where 1 is extremely unimportant, 2 is somewhat unimportant, 3 is neither important nor unimportant, 4 is important, and 5 is extremely important Predict trends 3.95 Understand customers 3.93 Improve business performance 3.89 Drive strategic decision making 3.85 Predict behavior 3.85 Drive operational efficiency 3.78 Provide targeted products and services 3.74 Identify new business opportunities 3.73 Improve productivity 3.62 Identify risks 3.61 Faster response to business change 3.5 Competitive differentiator 3.48 Reduce fraud 3.14 Figure 1. Drivers for predictive analytics. Based on 329 respondents. The State of Predictive Analytics Predictive analytics may be a technology whose time has finally come, but this doesn t mean it is widespread and part of the corporate culture. To understand the current state of predictive analytics, we asked respondents about where they are in their predictive analytics efforts as well as how and where predictive analytics is being used in their companies. For those who aren t using it, we asked, why not? Predictive Analytics Adoption Predictive analytics is making its way into organizations. Although predictive analytics is becoming a mainstream technology, it is still relatively new in most organizations. About half of the respondents to our survey were actively investigating the technology now, indicating increased interest in the technology. About 20% of these respondents have some predictive analytics activity already under way, perhaps a proof of concept (POC) or other experiment. When this group is called out specifically in this report, they will be referred to as the investigating group. Slightly more than 34% of the respondents are actively using predictive analytics. In this report, we ll refer to this group as the active group. Interestingly, when TDWI published a predictive analytics Best Practices Report in 2007, only 21% of the respondents had fully or partially implemented the technology. This suggests that predictive analytics is growing in market adoption. Predictive analytics is slowly gaining traction in organizations. Predictive analytics appears to be growing in adoption. The remainder of the respondents (about 14%) are not using predictive analytics yet, most often citing their current focus on basic BI deployments. tdwi.org 7

9 Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage Analytics is becoming part of the decision-making process. Many companies still do not use analytics to drive business decision making. We asked respondents who were either investigating the technology or utilizing it: Would you say that analytics underpins your organization s business strategy and drives day-to-day decisions? Twenty-five percent of the respondents answered Definitely, although another 48% replied Somewhat. Therefore, although organizations are just starting their analytics journeys, some inroads are being made in terms of utilizing analytics for decision making. We will see later in this report, however, that when analytics is standardized in a company, it does seem to drive top- and bottom-line impact. Predictive analytics is being used today primarily in marketing and sales. Use Cases for Predictive Analytics Companies are using or want to use predictive analytics for a range of applications, from predicting consumer behavior to predicting machine failure to finding patterns in medical data. However, the top use cases among the active group currently center on sales and marketing. We asked active-group respondents to tell us what use cases they were currently using, planning to use, or had no plans to use for predictive analytics (see Figure 2). What is predictive analytics being used for in your company? Now? Three years from now? Using today and will keep using Will use within 3 years No plans N/A or don t know Direct marketing Cross-sell/upsell/propensity to spend Retention analysis Portfolio analysis/prediction Optimization Risk analysis Econometric forecasting Fraud detection Quality assurance Scientific investigation Loan default 58% 13% 20% 9% 55% 21% 16% 8% 55% 17% 17% 11% 47% 23% 18% 12% 46% 31% 15% 8% 43% 26% 17% 14% 34% 31% 21% 14% 30% 19% 32% 19% 24% 28% 27% 21% 20% 16% 35% 29% 15% 9% 45% 31% Figure 2. Based on 126 active respondents. Retention analysis is a top use case among those currently deploying predictive analytics. Marketing and sales analysis currently lead the way. The top use cases for predictive analytics among the active group include direct marketing (58%), cross-sell and upsell (55%), and retention analysis (55%). In fact, predictive analytics is currently being used primarily in marketing (64%) and sales (54%) by respondents in the active group (see Figure 3). Companies clearly want to predict customer response to direct marketing campaigns and be able to upsell or cross-sell a customer. They also want to be able to stem customer attrition. These are all high-impact activities that can improve top-line revenue. Retention analysis is also very important to those investigating the technology. Roughly 72% (not shown) of these respondents plan to use predictive analytics for retention analysis over the next few years. 8 TDWI research

10 The State of Predictive Analytics Other analysis (such as portfolio and risk analysis) start to gain steam. Looking at the next three years, another set of applications will start to make more headway in organizations, including optimization, risk analysis, and portfolio analysis. If respondents stick to their plans, optimization-related predictive analytics will be used by close to 80% of the active-group respondents within three years a higher percentage than the direct marketing use case during the same time period. Optimization and risk analysis involve reducing the probability of negative outcomes. Risks come in many shapes and sizes, including financial risks, turnover risks, or even risks associated with loss of life. The increase in these other kinds of analysis suggests that other use cases are finding their way into the organization. In fact, such analysis leads the way for those currently investigating predictive analytics. For instance, about 66% of respondents investigating predictive analytics plan to use it for risk analysis, and 70% plan to use it for portfolio analysis over the next three years (not shown). Organizations outside of marketing and sales join in. In Figure 3, marketing and sales are the two most popular areas of the company that use predictive analytics today among the active group. However, predictive analytics is also finding its way into other areas of the business, such as customer service, finance, and operations management. It will continue to grow in these areas over the next few years. Typically, once an enterprise starts to enjoy success with an emerging technology in one area, it will see the technology organically spread to other areas. Success breeds success. That appears to be the case here. Where is predictive analytics used in your company? Now? 3 years from now? Marketing and/or market analysis 64% 24% 6% 6% Sales 54% 20% 15% 11% Executive management 49% 25% 15% 11% Customer service and support 46% 27% 16% 11% Using today and will keep using Will use within 3 years No plans N/A or don t know Finance 39% 26% 18% 17% Operations management 37% 29% 17% 17% IT, network, or computer management 30% 28% 25% 17% Engineering/R&D/scientific research 29% 17% 25% 29% Online presence/social media 26% 35% 27% 12% Product development/life cycle management 25% 30% 26% 19% Manufacturing/supply chain 19% 15% 36% 30% HR 17% 22% 36% 25% Figure 3. Based on 126 active respondents. Data, Data, Data Although companies are primarily using structured data found in data warehouses or other data stores in their predictive analytics efforts, they are looking to broaden the range of data sources used. Not surprisingly, almost 100% of respondents using predictive analytics today are using it on Companies are starting to make use of other sources of data for predictive analytics (aside from structured data). tdwi.org 9

11 Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage structured data (see Figure 4). The second most popular data source is demographic information (77%) followed by time series data (65%). Demographic data includes census information or information about business size, revenue, and so on. Such data can be useful in helping to predict particular outcomes. For instance, consumer demographic data can be useful in determining who will respond to an offer. Business demographic data can be used by service companies to determine how the size, location, or length of time in business affects purchase patterns. Using today and will keep using Will use within 3 years No plans N/A or don t know What kind of data do you use for predictive analytics? Now? Three years from now? Structured data (from tables, records) 98% Demographic data 77% 11% 6% 6% Times series data 65% 14% 11% 10% Web log data 37% 33% 21% 9% Geospatial data 35% 37% 16% 12% 2% Clickstream data from websites Real-time event data 32% 29% 25% 14% 31% 40% 20% 9% Internal text data (i.e. from s,call center notes, claims, etc.) 31% 45% 18% 6% External social media text data 21% 44% 25% 10% Machine-generated data (e.g., RFID, sensor, etc.) 19% 22% 38% 21% Figure 4. Based on 126 active respondents. Web log, clickstream, and geospatial data are finally starting to gain traction. Newer sources of data are also becoming part of the mix. Respondents cited using Web log data (37%), clickstream data (32%), and geospatial data (35%) today for analysis, and it looks like these percentages will grow significantly over the next three years. For example, a media company might use clickstream data to look at the behavior of its anonymous site visitors versus its paid subscribers or to forecast impressions for its advertising campaign. Geospatial data (sometimes referred to as location data) is also growing in popularity. Companies are using geospatial data and geospatial analytics in applications ranging from marketing to operations. They are also using it in conjunction with other data. Analytics is moving past mapping to more sophisticated use cases such as visualization and predictive analytics. For example, geospatial analysis can help companies identify problem spots and turn off network traffic in certain places. Companies are starting to use disparate data types in predictive analytics. Text data will gain momentum. Survey results suggest that companies will start to incorporate even more text data (often referred to as unstructured data, although that term might include other forms of non-traditional data such as video and audio) for use in analytics and predictive analytics. Thirty-one percent of the active group reported using internal text data today, and the percentage will double over the next three years if users keep to their plans. Text data comes from internal sources such as , log files, call center notes, claims forms, and survey comments, as well as external sources such as tweets, blogs, and news. Text data can be a valuable source of input to predictive models because it often addresses the question of why. Why did a customer switch to another provider? Why did a customer buy one product and not another? 10 TDWI research

12 The State of Predictive Analytics Increasingly, companies are combining text data with structured data in predictive analytics in an attempt to increase the effectiveness or lift of a model. This is a popular use case for combining structured and text data. For example, in churn analysis, companies combine the text from call center notes (which includes insight about why a customer called as well as sentiment associated with the call) with structured data such as demographic data. Using text analytics to extract entities, themes, or sentiments provides additional sources of attributes for a predictive model. Real-time data is poised for growth. Companies often view real-time data as a second phase of their advanced analytics strategies. Of course, this varies by user. Some wireless providers, for instance, have established real-time analytics projects to monitor and predict network health. These may be separate projects from the mainstream analytics work. Real-time data will also be used with operational predictive analytics, such as in operational intelligence systems that make decisions automatically. Real-time data is poised to grow. Big data continues to get bigger. Of course, big data adoption is also on the rise. Big data is a big topic and is covered in its own section of this report (see page 22). Challenges and Barriers to Adoption Although the adoption of predictive analytics is rising, respondents still face a number of challenges, many of which are related to people and processes rather than technology. Challenges also vary based on how far an organization has progressed in its predictive analytics efforts. These challenges are shown in Figure 5. Both the active group and those investigating the technology weighed in on the challenges. Lack of skills and understanding of technology are top challenges. For the active group, lack of skills was cited as the top challenge (24%). For those investigating the technology, this challenge ranked third on the list (at 19%), behind lack of understanding of predictive analytics (30%) and lack of a strong business case (21%). Predictive analytics can be quite complex. The skills required to build a predictive model include technical skills as well as analysis and critical thinking skills. Although vendors have come a long way in making predictive analytics easier to use, that doesn t negate the need for a particular skill set to build a very advanced model. Staffing is a major issue in predictive analytics and needs to be addressed as part of the planning process. Predictive analytics adopters would do well to heed this factor. Lack of understanding of predictive analytics is also a key challenge. In a separate question, we asked: Where would you like to see improvements in your predictive analytics deployment? Seventy percent of all respondents (not shown) answered education. Education is needed to understand what predictive analytics is all about so organizations can understand opportunities and challenges. It s not just a matter of education about the technology. As one respondent said, There is a lack of understanding of the business potential for predictive analytics in the organization, as well. tdwi.org 11

13 Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage What are your top predictive analytics challenges? Select three or fewer. Lack of skilled personnel Lack of understanding of predictive analytics technology Inability to assemble necessary data integration issues Not enough budget Business case not strong enough Inability to assemble necessary data cultural issues The technology is too hard to use 13% 9% 13% 10% 8% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 24% 19% 13% 21% 23% 30% Active Investigating Figure 5. Based on 126 respondents in the active group and 195 in the investigating group. Organizing to execute. subject was raised in discussions with respondents about challenges. Some organizations have hired more concerned with IT pieces and doesn t necessarily understand how data is a corporate asset. A team approach. USER STORY A TEAM APPROACH TO PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS. Some companies have found that a team approach can be useful in solving complex predictive analytics problems. It helps to assemble small teams that can get all the value out of the data, said a director of healthcare change data formats, integrate data, apply advanced modeling, interpret results, and communicate those results to the company. We found a balance with the small-team approach (around three people) for many of our projects. Business case woes. Lack of a strong business case is also a challenge for organizations, especially those just starting out with predictive analytics. Twenty-one percent cited this as a top challenge. Some respondents stressed the need for a proof of concept or proof of value (POV). Ideally, the POV is a Cultural issues can impede progress with predictive analytics. Culture is also an issue. Looking at challenges from another angle, we asked the active group, How technical and business challenges. Culture around analytics barely scored a neutral rating. For instance, some users commented about the lack of enterprise desire to change and organizational readiness. One respondent put it this way: 12 TDWI RESE ARCH

14 The State of Predictive Analytics The hard part about predictive analytics is not the technical change. It is not the information technology change. It is a behavior change. Analytics don t just happen. For instance, accountability for solid data is part of the process. This might start with the data entry team right at the beginning of the analytics process. Companies that have been using predictive analytics for years realize that it takes time for an analytics culture to permeate an organization. As one respondent put it, Analytics work best when they are not front and center. If it has to force itself to be heard or used, then something is wrong. This is true, but it also takes time for analytics to become part of the culture. In addition, analytics often requires plenty of selling because you are changing how decisions and operating procedures are made and implemented. Everyone needs to be on board. Rather than ripping and replacing systems, this company took managed steps toward a solution. Many of the respondents talked about taking steps as part of implementing predictive analytics. For instance, according to this respondent, the idea was to Bring people along at a comfortable level while piloting new functionality. Ultimately, it s about building trust. Building that trust means collaboration between different parts of the business and building relationships. That can take time. How satisfied are you with the following aspects of your predictive analytics deployment? (Please rate on a scale of 1 5, where where 1 is completely dissatisfied and 5 is completely satisfied.) Software and tools 3.37 Executive support 3.25 Ability to support multiple data sources 3.25 Others satisfaction level 3.15 Organizational support 3.13 Infrastructure 3.12 Skills in organization 2.96 Analytics culture 2.96 Funding 2.76 Figure 6. Based on 126 active respondents. Current Value Despite the challenges companies face, they still are experiencing value from predictive analytics. We asked the active group: Overall, how satisfied are you with predictive analytics in your company? Forty-four percent responded either satisfied or completely satisfied, 40% responded neutral, and only 16% were either dissatisfied or completely dissatisfied (not shown). We also asked the active group what value they have measured using predictive analytics. (See Figure 7.) Forty-five percent of the respondents were able to measure a positive top- or bottom-line impact using predictive analytics. Another 30% believe that they have become more effective or efficient but have been unable to measure the impact. The remainder believes they have gained more insight from predictive analytics. Later in this report, we examine some of the characteristics of companies that have gained measurable value from predictive analytics. tdwi.org 13

15 Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage Which statement best describes the value you ve seen from your predictive analytics efforts? We have measured positive top- and bottom-line impact 36% We have measured top-line impact only 7% We believe that we have become more effective, but can t measure top-line impact 18% We have measured a cost reduction only 2% We believe that we have become more efficient, but cannot measure impact 12% We have gained more insight 25% Figure 7. Based on 126 active respondents. User Skills and Delivery Models Business analysts as well as statisticians are building and utilizing predictive analytics. Say Hello to the Business User Along with the movement toward mainstream predictive analytics comes the movement to democratize it. In other words, a market goal has been to make the software easy enough to use to enable business analysts to build predictive models and make them consumable enough so that a host of end users can utilize them. Just five to seven years ago, statisticians or mathematicians (or others with quantitative backgrounds and advanced degrees) built most predictive models. They delivered the output in reports or tried other ways to incorporate the information into operations. Today, a shift is occurring in which data scientists and statisticians as well as business analysts are building these models. In fact, when we asked respondents from the active group who is building predictive models, the top two answers were the statisticians/data scientists (76%) and business analysts (63%). (See Figure 8.) Of course, the kinds of analysis that the two groups perform might differ. For instance, statisticians or data scientists might make use of more complex data types such as time series, or they might be responsible for analyses where the cost for inaccuracy is high, such as a pricing model. Who in your organization (or company) is using predictive analytics to actually build models? Select all that apply. Statistician/data scientist 76% Business analyst 63% IT developers 29% External partner 25% Other business user 11% Casual user 1% Figure 8. Based on 126 active respondents. 14 TDWI research

16 User Skills and Delivery Models Regardless, the reality is that the builder role is changing. One reason is that vendors have made their software easier to use. They are providing wizards and other tools to guide or even suggest specific models to users. However, building a predictive model remains complex. It includes getting the data in shape for modeling as well as determining what variables to actually use. Expertise is required. Get Ready for a Different Skill Set We asked respondents in both the active and the investigating groups what skills were needed to perform predictive analytics. Rather surprisingly, both groups ranked a degree in statistics, math, or another quantitative discipline near the bottom of the list. This was true even for those who are currently using the technology. Figure 9 shows the percentage of respondents who believe the skills listed are necessary to a large extent in order to perform predictive analytics. Respondents believe that knowledge of the business and critical thinking are key skills for predictive analytics. To what extent do you believe the following skills are necessary to perform predictive analytics? (Not at all, to a little extent, to some extent, to a moderate extent, to a large extent.) Knowledge of the business 74% Critical thinking 67% Knowledge and understanding of the source data and how to properly prepare and integrate it for model development 67% Training in predictive analytics 41% Communication skills 39% Degree in statistics, math, or other quantitative discipline 34% Training on the software 29% Figure 9. Skills ranked necessary to a large extent for performing predictive analytics. Based on 330 respondents. The top skills cited were knowledge of the business (74%), critical thinking (67%), and knowledge of the source data and how to prepare it for analysis (67%). There is clearly a move to make predictive analytics easier to use and consume. In fact, respondents stated that in the near future, business analysts will be the top users of predictive analytics tools. Even the active group believes that the business analyst (86%) will be the primary user of predictive analytics tools in the near future (see Figure 10). In the near future, who do you expect will be using predictive analytics tools in your company? Select all that apply. Business analyst 86% Statistician/data scientist 79% Other business user 42% IT developers 37% External partners 30% Casual users 17% Customers 16% Figure 10. Based on 126 active respondents. tdwi.org 15

17 Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage A cost-benefit approach can be utilized to manage the skills gap. The question is whether these users realistically have the skills necessary to build models. The answer may be both yes and no. Business analysts often write complex SQL and get involved with sophisticated analysis, but their success will depend on the complexity of a given model. As discussed earlier, there is a higher cost for inaccuracy for some models than for others. Organizations should consider this factor as they decide who should build models. It will also be an important factor in staffing, as sophisticated model-building skills are in short supply. However, there are several methods for deploying predictive analytics where the business analyst is a key consumer of a model. These are discussed in the next section. USER STORY A cost-benefit approach to predictive analytics. The answer to who should be building the model often depends on the results of a cost-benefit analysis especially when staffing is an issue. The VP of analytics at an international bank described it this way: You need to factor in the cost of being wrong with an answer. In other words, if staffing and skills are a big issue, you need to plan your resources accordingly. He gave this example: Say you re trying to build a model that predicts the probability of an action happening like someone responding to a specific offer. You could pay a statistician to build that model, or you might ask a business analyst using software with wizards to build it. If the statistician builds it, you might get an additional 5% lift over the semi-automated approach. You need to ask yourself if it is worth the cost. You also need to ask whether what you re trying to model can take the hit. For instance, building a response model to an offer that is not as accurate as it could be is less risky than building a complex price sensitivity model that isn t accurate. Predictive models can be deployed in a number of ways in a company. Operationalizing Predictive Analytics There are many ways that predictive analytics can be deployed in an organization. Figure 11 illustrates some of the top options according to the active group. A statistician or business analyst can build the model and then share the results for decision making (34%). A statistician can build the model and then a business analyst or other business user can interact with it (28%). For instance, a data scientist might build a model which other members of the organization might use to perform a what-if analysis. In addition, a model can be built by statisticians or other internal staff and then become operationalized as part of a business process (31%). These deployment options help to make predictive analytics more consumable. Which statement best describes how predictive analytics is deployed in your organization? It is used by statisticians/data scientists and business analysts to develop models for decision making 34% Models are built by statisticians or other internal staff and then operationalized as part of a business process 31% Statisticians/data scientists develop the models and then analysts and other business users interact with them 28% Models are built by external partners and then operationalized as part of a business process 4% Models are built by external partners and then utilized for decision making 3% Figure 11. Based on 126 active respondents. Here s how a few of these scenarios might work: Data scientists set the foundation. In some companies, the data scientist is responsible for dealing with data issues related to feeding models that can be used by business analysts. For example, the data 16 TDWI research

18 Tools, Techniques, and Processes scientist might choose the input and target variables (i.e., the outcome of interest, such as fraud, churn, or positive response to an offer) for training a predictive model. The scientist is essentially determining what can be modeled by the business analyst. He or she might also construct derived variables or include other variables that might be useful in predictive models. The business analyst then uses a software package geared to this approach to develop the models. Theoretically, the business analyst can t get into too much trouble because the data has already been determined. He or she can experiment and explore models that have, in essence, been approved by the data scientist. In some ways, this is analogous to OLAP BI for more advanced modeling. Using this approach, the business analyst can create numerous models without daily reliance on a statistician/data scientist to build the model. It can make the organization more agile. Operationalizing the model. Some companies make predictive analytics available to greater numbers of users by operationalizing the models. For instance, suppose your company is interested in cross-sell and upsell opportunities (i.e., using predictive analysis to identify products or services to which customers are likely to respond). There might be three participants in this operationalizing scenario: the data scientist, the business administrator, and the call center agent. In this approach, the data scientist is responsible for developing the model (perhaps with the help of someone from marketing) and dealing with data issues related to feeding models. Operationalizing predictive models as part of a business process makes the models more consumable. The data scientist determines what models make sense for use with the call center and then passes the models off to a business administrator who can operationalize the model. The call center agent uses the model output without even necessarily knowing that there is a complex model working behind the scenes. All the call center agent might see is the next best offer to suggest to a customer with whom they are speaking. The result is that a predictive model is taken to a wider set of end users in a one-to-many multiplier effect. Tools, Techniques, and Processes Top Techniques Numerous techniques can be used for predictive analytics. We asked respondents to identify the kinds of techniques they are using or planning to use in their organizations. Decision trees and linear regression lead the way. Decision trees and linear regression were the top two responses both for those using predictive analytics today and for those planning to use it. Both methods are fairly straightforward and relatively easy to understand. Linear regression tries to model the relationship between variables by fitting a line to the observed data. This simple model is widely used in statistics. It looks at the past relationship between variables to model the future. For instance, the price of a product might be strongly related to demand. Decision trees and linear regression are two top techniques for predictive analytics. Decision trees are often used for prediction because they are also fairly easy to understand, even by a non-statistician. A decision tree is a supervised learning approach that uses a branching or tree-like approach to model specific target variables or outcomes of interest. For instance, an outcome might be leave or stay; respond to or ignore a promotion; buy or not buy. A user would typically provide a set of training data (including data with known outcomes) to the tool. The decision tree then builds a model that can be interpreted as a set of rules with associated probabilities. For instance, in a churn model for a telecommunications company, a rule might be: If a customer spends more than $200 a tdwi.org 17

19 Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage month for service, has been a customer for more than three years, and has not called the call center more than once a year, then there is an 80% probability that they will not churn. A test data set or a holdout sample is then used to see how well the rules perform with new data. Current users: What are the most popular techniques for predictive analytics in your organization? Those in the investigation phase: Which techniques are you looking at? Select 3 or fewer. Linear regression Decision trees Cluster analysis Time series models Logistic regression Other regression Neural networks Association rule learning Naive Bayes Support vector machines Survival analysis Ensemble learning 17% 7% 6% 2% 12% 11% 11% 10% 5% 7% 5% 6% 16% 18% 30% 28% 59% 47% 51% 40% 47% 45% 57% 57% Active Investigating Figure 12. Based on 126 respondents in the active group and 195 in the investigating group. Clustering and time series analytics are also popular. Clustering and time series are also popular. As indicated in Figure 12, clustering and time series analysis are also popular techniques for predictive analytics. In fact, time series analysis seems to be more popular than clustering among those investigating the technology than by those actually using it. This might be because clustering is very useful in market segmentation, and marketing and sales are popular areas for predictive analytics among current users. Clustering is an unsupervised technique where grouping is based on similarities and the target variable is not known such as a segment. Time series analysis is used when there is a time-dependent nature to the data. It is very popular for forecasting. However, it is also being used in operations management and monitoring. More than 40% of respondents investigating predictive analytics cited this as a popular technique, which points to the value it can provide in a range of applications (such as operational intelligence). Ensemble modeling is not widely used yet. In ensemble modeling, predictions from a group of models are used to generate more accurate results. Only a small percentage of respondents cited ensemble learning as the most popular technique used, but it can be powerful and should garner more attention in the future. 18 TDWI research

20 Tools, Techniques, and Processes Key Features and Processes Supporting Predictive Analytics We asked the active group as well as those investigating the technology to rank certain functionality and processes in terms of level of importance on a five-point scale, where 1 is not at all important and 5 is extremely important. The rating results from the two groups are illustrated in Figure 13. Clearly, data integration is a key component of any predictive analytics effort. Both those using the technology as well as those investigating it ranked it at the top of the list. For those already using the technology, operationalizing (4.18) and ease of use (4.17) also ranked in the top three, no doubt for reasons already discussed. For those investigating predictive analytics, ease of use also ranked above a 4. Data integration is key to predictive analytics. How important are the following currently to your predictive analytics efforts? Data integration Operationalizing it Ease of use Model management Data governance Accessibility to all analysts In-database analytics Analytic sandboxes In-memory analytics Text analytics Open source analytics Mobile delivery Public cloud services Active Investigating Figure 13. Based on an active group of 126 respondents and investigating group of 195 respondents. Other interesting patterns in the results suggest best practices for predictive analytics. Data integration. Data integration is a key component of an analytics infrastructure. If you can t utilize your data effectively, your models won t be as valuable. Integration becomes particularly important as companies start to use more disparate data types from different data sources. Data integration is not just about ETL. It is a family of techniques that includes data quality, master data management, data federation, and data blending. Data integration can actually have its own architecture. 2 Think about model management. An interesting result from this question is that the active group realizes the importance of model management in predictive analytics (rating 3.99) significantly more than does the investigating group. Once an organization starts creating models, it needs a way to manage Those considering predictive analytics would do well to think about model management, too. 2 For more on data integration, please see the TDWI Best Practices Report Next Generation Data Integration by Philip Russom, available at tdwi.org/bpreports. tdwi.org 19

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