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Saturday, March 26, 2016

Should China worry about India-US rapprochement?

Mohammad
Atique Rahman

THE historic visit to India by
United States President Barack Obama has opened up a new vista of diplomatic
relations and cooperation between India and the US. The signing of the
“India-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation” agreement no doubt symbolises the new
level of mutual trust and confidence between the two largest democracies in the
world. President Obama's executive power to roll back the condition that US
authorities be allowed to monitor use of nuclear material purchased by India
even from third countries is a sign of such high level of mutual confidence.

President Obama extended his hand of
cooperation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to foster economic
prosperity and security cooperation not only for themselves but also for the
region. There were lots of aspirations and expectations in the air with regard
to his visit. In spite of this enthusiasm, the reaction of another powerhouse
in Asia -- China -- is quite uneasy, particularly after the India-US joint
statement regarding the adoption of new vision in Asia and Pacific. In the
joint statement, India and US declared that they affirm “the importance of
safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and
over-flight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea.” Now the
question is, why should China worry about US-India rapprochement in Asia and
Pacific? Does such an alliance overlap China's expectations over the South China
Sea?

To answer these questions, let us
explore Chinese interests in the South China Sea and how they may overlap with
the joint interests of India and the US. First of all, given the current
Chinese economic and military interests in the region, it is difficult to
bypass China while discussing economic and security cooperation in Asia and
Pacific. In 2009, George Friedman in his book The Next 100 Years wrote:
“Any discussion of the future has to begin with a discussion of China as future
global power.” Ted C. Fishman, in his book China Inc. wrote: “China is
everywhere these days, powered by the world's most rapidly changing large
economy which influences consumers, employers and citizens in the region and
around the world.”

It is the world's second largest
economy, maintaining 10% of GDP or more over the last 30 years, and has become
the largest manufacturing country of the world. Geo-politically, however, China
is an island country. Most interestingly it is not surrounded by water but by
impassable terrain and wastelands -- Siberia and the Mongolian grassland in the
North; the impassable Himalayas in the Southwest; and mountain and jungles
along the Southern borders with Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam. China's only viable
access is the South China Sea. This sea route is critically important for China
in its trade with other nations. The majority of the people of China live
within one thousand miles of the coast located in the major port cities like
Shanghai and Guangzhou.

China, over the last two decades,
has become a gold mine for low cost manufacturing of products. The label “Made
in China” has become universal. But nowadays, China is experiencing sharp
increase in labour cost, which increased by 10% in 2014 compared to Vietnam,
Laos and Cambodia. Therefore, China and the world's MNCs are now adopting
'China Plus' policy to relocate their production plants in East, South and
South East Asian countries which are also located in the South China Sea
region.

The current government in China
therefore adopted the historic 'Maritime Silk Road' policy in the region to
develop an effective, secure, reliable and navigable international sea route
for trading and connecting future manufacturing zones of Chinese companies and
MNCs in the East, South and South Asian countries. China is desperately trying
to enhance maritime trade security among the East, South and South East Asian
countries, developing an effective framework of economic cooperation including
Free Trade Zone, and supporting infrastructure projects like building roads and
railways in the region to materialise the idea of Maritime Silk Road. China has
also developed effective relations with Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean to allow
Chinese submarines to dock at their ports. China's relations with its maritime
neighbours are both friendly and tense. As for example, China is engaged in
territorial disputes over Spratly Islands with Vietnam and over Senkaku Islands
with Japan.

Today, the sea is the most
cost-effective and reliable trading route, and no doubt India and the US have
vital strategic and economic interests in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea
across the Asia-Pacific as US allies Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam are
located in this region. The US has also entered into a Trans Pacific
Partnership (TPP) agreement with Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam. On the other
hand, India has aspirations to achieve blue water capabilities and explore huge
amounts of natural resources and establish viable trading route in the Indian
Ocean.

The rise of China and India is a
reality in Asia. Both the nations are increasing the size and capabilities of
their naval powers in the vast deep oceans. C. Raja Mohan, in his book Samudra
Manthan: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific published in 2013, argued that
rising China and emerging India are becoming major maritime powers. Beijing and
Delhi are building powerful blue water navies to secure their vital interests
far beyond their immediate shores. As the naval footprints of China and India
overlap, their maritime competition has begun to roil the waters of the
Indo-Pacific, the vast littoral stretching from Africa to Australasia. While
China has quantitative advantage, India has been gaining qualitative and
strategic advantage over China in the oceans. Therefore, the joint statement of
strategic cooperation between India and US in Asia-Pacific reveals their mutual
interests in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions. In future, their
joint effort could help them gain balance with the growing strategic presence
of China in the greater Indian Ocean. So the question remains, why should China
not worry about their rapprochement?

The writer is Assistant Professor,
Dept. of International Relations, University of Dhaka.