2. Scott Lemieux reminds us that Donald Trump isn’t likely to win in November. Usefully lays out several things that are either untrue or minor factors at best. The best pro-Trump case is easy, however: If 2016 really is a lean-Republican election with generic candidates, then perhaps Trump only underperforms by a bit if he can manage to unify his party, and he squeaks in narrowly. If I had to guess today, I’d say Trump badly underperforms as a generic Republican, but there’s really no precedent, so it’s hard to be confident about that.

3. Matthew Dickinson on why Trump won the nomination. I can’t say I agree -- but as always, I strongly recommend reading Dickinson, a very smart political scientist who has a very different outlook on parties and nomination politics than I do.

7. And Kevin Drum keeps writing about angry (or not angry) voters, and I’m going to keep linking to him, because I think he’s correct. As he says, it’s not that no one is angry, or even that no one is angry about the economy -- it’s just that there’s not a lot of reason to believe more people are more angry about the economy than they were during other elections.

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