How Russia can sway the anti-ISIS fight

25.02.15

How Russia can sway the anti-ISIS fight

Эксперты МГИМО: Мария Дубовикова

The beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts by the Libyan branch
of ISIS has thrown down a challenge to Egypt and its leader.
Egypt immediately responded by launching airstrikes against ISIS
strongholds in Libya. Following the attack, Abdel Fattah
al-Sisi called for a United Nations resolution to back
the international coalition to intervene in Libya. According
to the Egyptian president «there is no other choice» as the
Libyan people and government called on them to act.

On the February 22, Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh
Shoukry, during a meeting with the U.N. Secretary-General Ban
Ki-moon, stressed that the U.N. shares responsibility for what
is going on in Libya and that the U.N. must support the
internationally recognized Libyan government based in Tobruk. On the
same day, Shoukry took part in a counter-terrorist
summit in Washington where he met his American counterpart John Kerry
and they discussed bilateral relations as well as potential measures
to counter terrorist groups. In the evening, Sisi addressed the
nation and called for a united Arab force to counter the growing
challenges, somehow reviving once buried pan-Arabic unity ideas
amid the not so cloudless relations between Arab countries.

Sisi wants to take advantage of the current dramatic situation
to lead the war on ISIS and take back decisive positions on the
Middle Eastern chessboard. However, these brutal activities don’t meet
approval and support from Western countries which, making moralists
of themselves, criticize the Egyptian president for his oppression
of moderate Islamists at home. Western diplomats consider the
Egyptian involvement in Libya deconstructive and threatening
to Libyan security and U.N. efforts in the country. Apparently they
ignore the fact that the Libyan government they pretend to back, itself
has asked Egypt to continue its airstrikes in coordination with
Libyan leaders and appreciation toward Egypt was also expressed
in an official statement
by al-Thinni’s government for backing Libyans against
«terrorism and extremism». However, it’s quite clear that airstrikes
cannot be very efficient, especially considering the vast sparsely
populated areas of Libya and the nebulous nature of extremist groups
operating in the country.

Russia fills the void

At the same time, while the West continues its unproductive policy
of criticizing Sisi and continues arrogantly pretending they know
solutions to all the Middle East’s problems, Russia fills the
vacuum.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, who was recently welcomed
in Cairo, sent a message of condolence to his Egyptian
counterpart and reiterated that «Russia is ready for the closest
cooperation with Egypt in fighting all forms of terrorist threat».
Vitaly Churkin, permanent representative of Russia in the U.N.
Security Council, doesn’t exclude Russia’s participation
in the international coalition in Libya. Thus the possibility
of Russia’s involvement in the international efforts
to counter ISIS is no longer ephemeral, but a real one.
It seems that Italian PM Matteo Renzi will have little
to do during his visit to Moscow at the beginning
of March, as one of the purposes of his visit, revealed
by La Stampa, is to encourage Russia to join the
international coalition against ISIS. However, nothing is as clear
as it may seem.

Russia may deny to join the current coalition, and may demand
a U.N. — backed coalition instead. Meanwhile, the draft resolution
proposed by Egypt has no call for foreign military intervention
despite earlier pronounced proposals. It also contains suggestions
to lift a U.N. embargo on arms sales to Libya for the
benefit of al-Thinni’s government.
In a partnership with Egypt, Russia can assist the recognized Libyan
recognized government as well as Egypt itself with arms. There are
some hawkish voices inside Russia’s political establishment calling for
deeper involvement in the war against ISIS after the Libyan tragedy,
as many people in Russian society feel some responsibility for what
is going on in the country. This is due
to Russia’s abstention in 2011 during the vote in the
U.N. Security Council on a resolution on Libya.

Libyan tragedy

On the one hand, it seems that Russia’s participation
in countering ISIS operations, whether U.N. backed or Western backed,
can ameliorate its status in the international arena, strengthen its
position and improve its reputation. But these vague possible gains could
easily turn in to a complete loss. ISIS has already threatened
Russia several times. According to head of Russia’s Secret
Service, nearly 1,700 Russian citizens have joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
Despite the fact that leaders of Caucasus Republics as well
as Federal security forces are always on guard, no one can
guarantee perfect security. Russia’s direct involvement in any
coalition would mean a direct fight against ISIS. The ISIS plague knows
no borders, that much has already become clear. A Caucasus front
against ISIS is a very real threat and Russia will have to bear
the burden.

If the international community wants Russia to take
an effective part in the struggle on terrorism, it should
let Russia carry on as usual — supporting the fights via
military support, the exchange of information, through bilateral ties and
direct cooperation. Russia needs support then it will
be a strong partner and can contribute to the greater good.

________________

Maria Dubovikova is a co-founder of IMESClub
(International Middle Eastern Studies Club), IMESClub Executive Director and
member of the Club Council, author of several scientific articles and
participant of several high level international conferences. She
is a permanent member of the Think-tank under the
American University in Moscow. Alumni of MGIMO (Moscow State
Institute of International Relations (University) of Ministry
of Foreign Affairs of Russia) (honors diploma), she had been working
for three months as a trainee at the French Institute
of International Relations (IFRI) in Paris. Now she
is a PhD Candidate at MGIMO (Department of International
Relations and Foreign Policy of Russia). Her research field
is Russian foreign policy, especially in the Middle East, the policy
of France and the US towards the Mediterranean, theory
of international relations, humanitarian interventions and etc. Fluently
speaks and writes in French and English. She can be followed
on Twitter: @politblogme