2012 Winter Meetings – Day 1 Recap

We learned yesterday that the Red Sox, Brewers, and Phillies are all on the sidelines, biding their time for Josh Hamilton while the Mariners have met with Hamilton the most recent. Jayson Stark Tweeted that the Phillies interest in Hamilton is “wary“. Jim Bowden of ESPN doesn’t think the Yankees should be counted out while Ken Rosenthal has heard that the Rangers have been the most aggressive suitor for Hamilton.

Pagan Gone

The Giants and center fielder Angel Pagan came to a four-year, $40 million contract agreement yesterday. We talked a bit about that here. Later in the day, Jim Salisbury of CSN reported that the Phillies don’t believe Michael Bourn‘s profile as a player is the best fit, that Cody Ross could be a good corner fit, and that they are “lukewarm” on a Shane Victorino reunion. We learned yesterday that Victorino has multiple three-year contract offers and at least one four-year offer on the table. Salisbury also reported that Ruben Amaro thinks the preferred method of acquiring a center fielder is via free agency rather than engaging in a trade.

Buster Olney Tweeted yesterday that Curtis Granderson is available via trade. Granderson had a sharp increase in power but a sharp decrease in plate discipline (Ks up, BBs down) in 2012. The 31-year old center fielder is in the final year of his deal and is due approximately $15 million in 2013. Keep your eye on this one as a match for the Phillies.

Yunel Escobar and Ricky Nolasco could be the next Fish headed out of Miami. The Rays, A’s, Cubs, and Yankees reportedly are interested in Escobar while Nolasco has simply voiced his displeasure at this point.

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22 Comments

Mike in NJ

December 4, 2012 at 10:03 am

Granderson on a 1 year deal would certainly be worth pursuing, as long as all sides understand this is a rental and the Phils don’t give up any top prospects. If the Phils think Gilles will be the long term answer in CF and think he will be ready in 2014, then this may be the best option. If not, then they’d be better off waiting out the market for Bourne or Hamilton, or trading for a CF somewhere else.

The thought of Granderson in our outfield is compelling to me, as you’d think that his power numbers would remain up at CBP. However, one of the trends I’ve been seeing when talking about potential trades/free agent signings is ensuring that person brings strong plate discipline to the table. I know you mentioned his higher K rate and lower BB rate, but I wonder how he’d do in the NL, and if the new hitting coaches would have any effect.

That being said, who are our strongest trade bait on this team, and can we really afford to deal any of them at this point?

I’d like to restate a couple things, if for nothoing else, the sake of internal mindkeeping. Cannot think of a better example than Josh Hamilton. This is not an editorial expressing the desire to see the Phils sign Hamilton. They be signing who they be signing, and my “job” is to watch and root for who fits that bill. Josh, like most any candidate, has plusses (a lot), and minuses, and in that general sense, is no different than any other candidate. Don’t know, don’t care much about luxury tax implications. A little budget concious because it’s good mental discipline to always be, but hardly one of these peeps that love throwing money around even if it isn’t mine, nor silly enough as an outsider to brush my nose into knowing what can be afforded.

The biggest Hamilton story related to the Phillies was 2 weeks ago when some nonsense came out about the Phils had decided to move on. Bullbleep. The market changes by the conversation at this time, and day by day at it’s slowest. I wouldn’t even rule out the possibility of a master scheme by some GMs to flip into total sales mode and set up imagery for the sake of the art of a deal. Yeah, that could be seen as synonomous with paranoid, but there’s a fine line ‘tween paranoia, and thinking ypou know what’s happenin’ (might not, but ya think ya do).. Two weeks henceforth, the word “wary” stands out when I read the Hamilton update. Let me be redundant. Bullbleep. Let me be original. Bullbleepingbleep.

The hardest working man on the semi baseball beat (he didn’t say reporting live from Nashville, but is putting energy into the coverage, Ian R (I’m not looking up how to spell Riccaboni) tells us the Hamilton market is becoming clearer. Right. So is the bear market, and all the prognostications for when the post election economic slump belittles us all. Guess what, sports fans? There is no clarity to the Hamilton market. There was clarity to the Albert Pujols market last year. See how effective he was for the Marlins or Cardinals this year?

Watch and listen to the Josh Hamilton market with an entertained eye, and a VERY open ear. The only solid liklihood is that there is a final conversation between Josh and the Ranger administration when he has a firm offer on the table. And despite the daily, hell, hourly rumors of destination, the wind will figure to blow another direction sooner than it took you the time to read through this.

Would love to be in Nashville right now Ken, but instead I am resigned to writing paragraph after paragraph after reading Tweet after Tweet before and after, and sometimes during lunch, my day job.

Hamilton is the biggest mystery with some of the biggest question marks of any free agent in quite some time and I think that has a lot to do with a lot of the confusion. I don’t think the persons that are reporting the confusion, and the ones I cite, are doing anything they aren’t supposed to or getting anything wrong and you haven’t implied that either. Hamilton, however, is that intriguing, and confusing of a FA, that I truly believe teams change their minds on a daily basis.

You told the wrong person you’d love to be in N’ville. I went to the meetings last year, it truly fewlt like what image heaven carries. Sure, you get to rub elbows with big names, and it’s pretty easy to get in conversation with them (more relaxed in a way offseason?), but you meet people from all over ranging from tourists to job seekersRan into one dude who recalled the Phils glory years 76-83 better than I do, and he a lifelong Central Texan.

You think you’ve completed your resume when you’ve hit x ballparks, seen y post season games, whatever your individual criteria might be. I suppose most people would think the winter meetings way down on the list. I believe you’d thoroughly enjoy the experience should it fall your way, or if you choose to plan it.

I don’t see Grandy as a “match” for the Phillies. Maybe if they get totally desperate but you need to explain the Phillies lineup vs lefthanders if you’re going to say that.

One of the highest strikeout rates and since he’s a lefty that makes it even worse
rental player
15 million contract
yankees would probably want Ruf, they have no OFs
hit mostly in 1-2 spot
might need to adjust to NL, not good for a rental player
was 3-33 in playoffs, 1 hr, 2 rbis, 0 dbls, 0 triples

It looks like the Phils will be Bourn’s only remaining suitor although Boras will surely have Jon Heyman leak that a mystery team is interested. Once Hamilton signs, the Phils should make one take-it-or-leave-it offer to Boras for Bourn. If he turns it down, they should let him sign elsewhere and turn their sights to another OF.

well, it’s not the norm. Awkward? Maybe. Even probably. But I go back to when he had a slip up and had a few drinks the night he was out with Kinsler. Had a presser a day or 2 later, and apologized and vented. Now that mioght have been a PR move, who knows, all I know is it struck me as real gutsy after he screwed up. I’d think that would have been more awkward.
Didn’t hide behind a PR Dept’s writing, stood there head on to the lights, and seemed real. Hell, for all the baggage he brings, the man’s reversal to this date is one of the great stories ever. Maybe shooting up when you have all his athletic skill is what’s really awkward.

We all know Boras holds his clients out forever. Wonder if it’s possible that you could find a shocking number he has signed early. But the REPUTATION, in his case would counter your anticipation. I kinda feel like Ruben would be sort of panicing if it goes that way. I figure if he wanted Bourne, we’d have heard more rumors about contact to date. Does not mean they haven’t, of course, but it doesn’t feel like heartfelt interest’s been shown.

This is probably the only good option for 3B in the free agent pool. If he’s going for only 8M, RAJ better have a good offer ready for him. There has been no mention whatsoever re Phillies and Keppinger, which is very disappointing.

Red Sox are supposedly close to signing Victorino. Giants are looking at Swisher. I have a feeling Amaro is going to come away with zilch. Teams know the Phillies have 3 unproven outfielders and are desperate. In fact, we may have the worst outfield in baseball.

I said in March last year that I thought he would sign a 4 year/ $44 M contract somewhere… , I didn’t think he’d get to $12 M per season in a contract, but thought someone would go the 3-4 year range he was looking for

A lot of people were predicting $15 M per year contract for Victorino, and I only see teams handing out those deals for guys that have Power – or Age on their side .. Upton for $15 M . . .

Similarly, i don’t think that Bourn will sign for more than $15 M per season – I think he’s going to sign a 3-4 year deal for (3/$40 .. $4/50 .. etc) … he’s better than Vic defensively, but doesn’t hit HRs … we’ll see if that matters in his upcoming contract