I continue to believe that Johan Camargo will not be a starting outfielder for the Braves for the bulk of the year. I think they really like Camargo as insurance policy for 2B, 3B, SS, and the OF while also still getting a lot of PAs even if a significant injury doesn’t occur. Who could the Braves land to play the outfield?

Trade Candidates:

Mitch Haniger – Clearly the most talented option on this list. But it’s hard to know what exactly Seattle is doing. In a span of about a month and a half, they traded away Mike Zunino, James Paxton, Alex Colome, Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, and Jean Segura, but also traded for Mallex Smith, Jake Bauers, Domingo Santana, and Justus Sheffield. They not only got much younger, but may have even gotten better as a result. So do they trade Haniger, who is cheap as anyone, entering his prime, and can crush baseballs? Who knows. But it would be a nice way for the Braves to clear their pitching logjam by trading two high-end pitching prospects and whatever else it would take to get him.

Nicholas Castellanos – He is the more available, slightly more expensive, slightly better hitting, but worse defending version of Mitch Haniger. They’re both probably just as good of a bet to give you at least a .850 OPS, they’re the same age, but Castellanos has less control. Like I said, though, he would be less of a defender than Haniger. Castellanos has just one more year of team control, and he’ll probably make around $10-11M this year. He’s a right-handed bat with lots of power. It would probably take a mid-tier pitching prospect and some filler to land him.

Yasiel Puig or Jesse Winker: One would think Cincinnati will be looking to trade one of their three corner outfielders. Jesse Winker is young, cost-controlled, and while he hasn’t had a full season of success yet, he’s hit .299/.397/.460 in 436 PAs across the last two years. Puig, while a lightning rod, can hit, run and throw, and he does them all quite well. B-Ref liked Puig to a 2.7 bWAR, and Fangraphs had him at 1.8 WAR. But he’s had two straight years with at least a .820 OPS, he stole 15 bases in 20 chances, can throw with just about anyone, is still quite young (28), and he’s got one more year left of team control where he’ll probably make around $12-13M. He’d be a good guy to bring in for one year, decide if he’s as crazy as he seems (or if he can be de-crazied in the right environment), and decide if you’re interested in him long-term. Like Castellanos, I think you can get Puig for about a mid-tier pitching prospect and some filler. Winker will be much more valuable in a trade, so look for some combination of a high-end pitching prospect and filler or a couple mid-tier guys and some change to get him.

Free Agents:

Bryce Harper – Bryce Harper has not yet been contracted to play for an American baseball team. I’m not sure if you’ve heard that, but we break news here. It’s unknown the exact length and total money committed he’ll ultimately get, of course, but it’s safe to say that AA has led us all to believe he doesn’t want to get anywhere close to what those figures would be.

A.J. Pollock – Probably the best defensive option on the list. He would give the Braves three outfielders capable of playing CF, and his career .805 OPS would be very helpful in the outfield. He hasn’t played over 150 games since 2015, though, so his durability is a concern. Would he fit well in a scenario where the Braves could look at Austin Riley or Johan Camargo spelling him should he get injured? Sure, but for how much? Michael Brantley got 2YR/$32M, and Andrew McCutchen got 3YR/$50M. They’re all very similar ages (Cutch and Brantley will be 32, and Pollock will be 31). McCutchen does not have the injury concerns, perhaps hence the reason for the 3rd year. Brantley and Pollock are most similar, though Brantley is coming off a year where he played 143 games, and Pollock missed more time (113 games played). Pollock may have to settle for even a one year deal, but the AAV may still be similar to Brantley’s. You’d be doubling down on the strategy employed with Josh Donaldson to sign a very good player coming off some injuries to a one year deal.

Carlos Gonzalez – He’s another early 30’s outfielder (33, though) who might be getting a shorter-term deal. He’s another guy who you could pencil it for about a .800 OPS at this point in his career, though he would be more limited defensively than Pollock. The Coors effect could be in play with him, though, as he’s another typical Rockie with a pronounced home/road split. I still think he’s a good bet to provide you some above average offense out of RF. 1YR/$12M or 2YR/24M?

Nick Markakis – Well, here you go. As a platoon option against righties, you could do a lot worse. If he was a part of a strategy of easing Austin Riley into the big leagues while getting Camargo and Adam Duvall some PAs, his return would have merit. He’s obviously the least-talented outfielder on this list. He works only as a very limited portion of the strategy to improve the team, whereas everyone else on this list would be acquired to be your primary RF. With that said, to his credit, he will provide some nice Veteran Presents. If Jon Jay got 1YR/$4M from the White Sox (though there could be some Manny Machado-angling there), then I think Kakes gets 1YR/$6M. Whether it’s from us is an entirely different story.

Marwin Gonzalez – Gonzalez plays all over the diamond. He’s logged innings in the last two years at 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, and LF, and he’s given Houston a tremendous amount of versaility. But versatility is not something the Braves are in great need of with both Camargo and Charlie Culberson without starting roles, so the Braves may not be willing to pay for that versatility — something that will inevitably occur from another team — when he only has a career .737 OPS. 3YR/$48M

Haniger would solve two birds with one stone: he would be the perfect addition to our lineup, and we could use our best currency (pitching) to acquire him. But the Mariners may very well not be interested in trading for him. Short of Haniger, and short of Harper, of course, I’d love to see the Braves trade for Castellanos or sign Pollock. If they really upgrade the rest of the roster elsewhere, then you could do worse than Markakis.

It’s completely unrelated but the Falcons’ hiring of the offensive coaches have been hugely disappointing. Come on, bringing back three ex-offensive coordinators who had failed? It’s like Dan Quinn is completely clueless in putting together his coaching staff.

Alternately, it’s like Dan Quinn has taken a reduced position where he is called the “head coach” but is effectively the defensive coordinator, and the new OF hire is more or less his equal (as a recent head coach himself.)

Mostly the two offensive coaching hires indicate that “making Matt Ryan comfortable” is their primary driving principle. The franchise QB pretty clearly doesn’t want to go through having to learn yet another OC’s system and playbook, so they’re bringing back two guys he’s had success with previously.

IF Castellanos comes for a song (and not a wildly popular nor critically acclaimed song) and IF we keep Dunn (or someone similar) for a late inning defensive caddy, then acquiring him would not be a calamity.

However, NOBODY who advocates for Castellanos now should be allowed to post anything negative about his defense in season except something like “yeah, I should have paid more attention to how bad his defense was.” You are warned.

I agree with Sam. This is clearly about Matt Ryan and the fact that it’s been decided they’d rather have him choose the offensive coordinator than Dan Quinn. Frankly, I find it hard to argue. The last time Quinn got to choose, he took the best offense in the league and gave it to Steve Sarkisian, who’d never been an NFL OC before.

Also, calling Dirk Koetter a failure during his first stint as our offensive coordinator is a bit of a stretch. It didn’t end well, but it certainly started well, and he was operating without an offensive line or running game in the later years.

@5, I hereby reserve the unrestricted, worldwide, non-exclusive, perpetual right to bitch and moan about how bad the Braves players are. The above right may be exercised in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter devised.

The Falcons’ offensive fortunes will hinge on their ability to shed contracts enough to build an offensive line that protects Ryan, and Devonta Freeman’s ability to return from concussion and various other injuries.

Quinn’s continued employment in Atlanta will hinge on his ability to build a defense that doesn’t require all of the contract space needed to fix the O-line, but has enough depth to survive key injuries. If he can’t do that, he will be let go as well.

If Duvall gets back to .240/.300/.490 with 65+ extra base hits with GG level defense then you will not find a better value on the market. He and Ozzie could bat #4/#5 in either order and be great for the role.

Seeing AA’s comments — that his read of the RF market is more or less that there will be some passable option left for us to pick up — gave me a weird vibe, like he’s already settled or some contingency plan is already in place.

Maybe I’m misremembering, but it came across to me as less vague / more certain than he typically is.

@13 It’s really more that the game is changing. Some teams don’t just want 8 position player starters. They want 9. And Camargo is the 9th starter, someone you have on the roster who plays all over the field so you don’t have a Keith Lockhart sucking up PAs. Keith’s Atlanta career saw him get 266 PAs per year, as an example. And when you have someone as good and versatile as Camargo, if I was a GM, I’d be dying to have him available in this role. In the last 2 years, Acuna, Ender, Dansby, Donaldson, and even Camargo himself have missed at least a month at some point. It’s a good bet that at least two of your position players will miss at least a month, and last year, we only had Charlie Culberson as an option, he of the career .595 OPS coming into that season.

I’d be shocked if AA doesn’t have a handshake agreement in place with one or two teams to the extent that “if X signs here, we’ll move forward with this trade package for Y.” Everything is bottlenecked behind Harper and Machado, and it will be until one or both sign.

The problem too is that there don’t seem to be a lot of teams jonesing for our pitching prospects. Every trade rumor I’m hearing seems to be centered around Riley or Pache. Of course, we are hearing Touki, which seems to be a non-starter, but I’m not reading a lot of stuff saying that Anderson or Gohara or Fried are headlining deals. Of course, AA does keep some of it close to the chest.

Adam Duvall is a very difficult decision to make. He’s making $3M, which is not much at all. And he’s one year removed from being a productive regular. I could see everything from him being a platoon party against lefties to being released in Spring Training. Nothing would surprise me.

Castellanos is the probably the best bet offensively among the bunch (assuming Haniger isn’t available). His defense really is Matt Kemp-level bad, though.

More and more, I’m liking the idea of Puig. It would be a chance to see if Snit can do the kind of thing Bobby did so often–take someone with a bad rep elsewhere and make them seem like a model citizen (e.g., Sheffield).

Fun fact about Jesse Garcia: his baseball-reference page is on the fourth page of search results. That’s amazing — he made the major leagues and there are that many Jesse Garcias who are more famous than him.

The timing is so odd that we find out we win the grievance the day after we let those two guys go. It’s impossible to know what’s going on behind the scenes, but that’s really interesting.

AA has said that they weren’t let go as a result of Coppygate or the Carter Stewart situation, but they both just signed one year deals in October, and now they’re let go in January. That’s also odd. I can’t help but wonder if one or both said something or promised something to Stewart that didn’t end up happening, and this is why we are where we are, both with not being able to sign Stewart and Bridges’ and Clark’s dismissal.

It will be very nice to have another pick in next year’s draft, but I wonder if AA is more willing to deal pitching if you had Stewart in the system as your 7th- or 8th-best prospect.

@45: Maybe. But I think you need to change a lot more than the philosophy. Scouting hitters is a lot harder, I think, than scouting pitchers, and we may not have the right scouts as a result of the philosophy. (To be fair, I don’t think either one is easy, but judging “stuff” is bound to be easier than judging “reacting to stuff,” granting that neither one is enough to draw a conclusion.)

@43 I think AA would jump at the chance to trade some pitchers if anyone would have them.

@45 I hope you’re right. Excluding 2015/2016, the best Braves draftees have been hitters over the last 20 years (except Wainwright). It does seem to be harder to “hit” on them considering the large number of failed prospects the Braves have endured.

@54, I’d put it at 5:1 — bet a dollar to win $5 that Duvall outhits Dozier. (I know baseball bets are in moneylines rather than odds ratios but I never remember how moneylines work.)

@52, interesting question as age 32 was Duggla’s last cromulent season. I think Dozier will hit right around there (104 wRC+, 98 OPS+, which is good for a second baseman who can actually field the position).

I’m not completely dismissing it, but how much would Castellanos defense really matter in RF with the shifts now? Mostly, it seems it’d only be an issue if you have a RH hitter at the plate, who’s good at taking the ball opposite field. Otherwise, wouldn’t you have basically two CF shifted over toward RF,with a LH up, pretty much limiting what Castellanos would be responsible for?

I get defense is important; but in the same token, as good as the Braves are around the diamond, it feels like they could afford to punt at one spot for some more hitting.

A run saved is roughly equivalent to a run scored. So if Castellanos goes out and Incaviglias the ball all over the field, it’s going to detract what he can do with the bat. All depends on just how bad you think he is — is he 20 runs bad? Or just 10 runs bad?

I’d like the Braves to get one player this offseason whose post-acquisition news articles didn’t say any of the following: “If healthy,” “rebound from a disappointing 2018,” “rebuild value,” “be a platoon partner for,” “oft-injured.”

We literally just saw Rhys Hoskins demonstrate how easily even a very good offensive season can have its value drained away by godawful defense. Castellanos is even worse.

I would be thrilled with Pollock. That’s an absolutely elite defense (three true center fielders, two shortstops flanked by two Gold Glovers on the corner infield) and a rock-solid lineup with upside, with a deep bench. Keep your ear to the ground for an elite starting pitcher and I’ll take that team against anyone in the NL.

I would take AJ Pollock…and yes, I would give up a draft pick for him. Of course, I find the prospect of folks balking at signing a free agent they otherwise want and could come to terms with because they have to give up one measly draft pick (and not even one of their top two, at that) to be the height of absurdity, so there’s that.

Chances are that whatever Waters winds up being, it won’t be as good as Pollock. We’re here to win, not ensure that every prospect gets every chance to prove themselves.

Also, not everyone who’s had injuries is gonna keep having injuries. There is such a thing as bad luck, you know? Give him a physical. Assuming he passes, thinking you can work out how injury-prone he is is a fool’s errand.

@82–agree completely. And if Waters does turn out to be as good or better than Pollock in 2 or 3 years, that’s not a problem, that’s great news. That’s about the time Inciarte starts losing his ability to be an elite defender. And if Ender is still good then, trade him. It’s a good thing to have extra talent.

Braves will not sign Pollock for 4 years. Braves will not give out any 4 or more year contracts. IF the Braves sign Pollock for 1-3 years then Waters is not likely to be blocked. Pache blocks Waters as much as anyone. Pache is more likely to be traded.

I keep finding myself stunned that the Marlins haven’t traded Realmuto to the Braves yet. Every time I see what the Marlins criteria are, I see the Braves meeting it easily. Here’s what the Braves could trade:

1. Flowers – ML catcher replacement who can handle young pitchers.
2. Newcomb – Proven ML asset with upside who is controllable for a long period.
3. Wright – Top 30 overall ML prospect who is ML-ready
4. Jackson – Good catching prospect with power potential.
5. Anything else the Braves might add to sweeten the deal – e.g. Demeritte – another potential power hitting prospect – or another pitcher or mid-ranked prospect – I would go in on Alexander or Jefry Ramos or Riley Delgado, who knows…..

This should be enough to make the Marlins jump. I just don’t get it. Unless the Astros go in with Tucker or Whitley or the Dodgers with Verdugo, I can’t see anyone beating this deal.

The Marlins already dealt with us enough to give us the pick that turned into Riley. And they traded for Cervenka. They couldn’t be too shy to deal in division.

The Marlins’ reluctance to deal with us because we’re in the same division is ass backwards. The Braves should be the ones wary about handing the Marlins 3 or more blue chip prospects who will line up against us for 6+ years, not the Marlins who will only have to face Realmuto for 2 when they have no chance of winning.

@58 – Terrell Wade, if only b/c as a kid, he was one of the first prospects I ever heard of, and by my kid-logic, if people were talking about someone who was already good in the minors, there was no logical way he could miss. I also had a couple of his baseball cards, which I’m sure played a role.

The Marlins’ (((terrible, no good, dirty, underhanded tactics))), including such unprecedented and frankly unspeakable fare as holding onto Realmuto until he’s the very last quality guy available at his position and seeing if they can get the best possible deal by claiming they don’t want to trade him within the division… are all actually totally run-of-the-mill things that happen every offseason and every trade deadline. If you’re the Marlins, what’s the rush? Even with Grandal gone, they can afford to wait until Harper and Machado are off the board.

What the Marlins are doing is designed to induce in AA the type of “OK I’LL TRADE YOU ANYTHING YOU WANT” desperation and utter insanity that a few of you on here are displaying.

Thankfully, AA is playing it smart, acquiring for us a cromulent backup plan, and not budging.

I think the Marlins are playing themselves, and not for the first time. They have the best catcher available, but their asking price is so high that the best alternative options have come off the board at quite affordable prices. Realmuto is now in the same waiting game morass as every other almost-marquee acquisition target from Keuchel to Pollock, waiting to see who finally ponies up for Harper and Machado.

They could have traded Realmuto last year, and they didn’t. The thing is, they kind of have to trade him this winter, because his trade value just goes straight down from here, the more time he plays in a Marlins uniform and the less time his new team could get him for.

They didn’t get enough for trading Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna. I’m betting they won’t get enough for Realmuto, either.

Yes, they do indeed need to trade him this offseason. But fortunately for the Marlins, even with teams making other accommodations with Grandal, Ramos, etc., there are still a lot more teams looking for a good catcher than there is a JT Realmuto. With that said, the teams may just say that they won’t upgrade catcher and go upgrade somewhere else, and that’s the Marlins’ big gamble.

@92 A championship team must have a Camargo type on the bench. And he may be the best one out there. Everyone in that lineup will make at least one trip to the DL sometime during the season. That’s a minimum of 80 games someone has to cover. You can count on at least one significant injury that will require a longer term replacement. Rather than picking up Matt Adams, we already have a starter who can slide right in. Having a Camargo type on the bench is simply a requirement.

@91 @94 I agree that meeting the Marlins demands the way I outlined would be a big gift to them. That’s why I can’t understand why they wouldn’t jump. The point is that deal doesn’t hurt us that much – doesn’t squash the farm and doesn’t leave a hole in the ML league team. If the Marlins get less than that from anybody including us then so much the better. Realmuto is worth the overpay if you can get a prime asset at a scarce position. The Braves would get the first chance at extending him or would receive a comp pick back. We will have all the time in the world to monitor Contreras’ development and insert him if/when he’s ready. It’s honestly such a good fit for the Braves that it has to be pursued extra aggressively.

But what you don’t see me saying is to give away Albies or Riley or Anderson or Soroka or Waters or even Pache. The Braves can offer a top notch deal without including our most critical assets.

For the 4 seasons from his age 24 to 27 seasons, Vizzy has averaged 42 IP per year. That’s not worth $4.8M, but his potential even at age 28 is worth $4.8M. And really, it’s on Vizzy. He’s running out of arb years to demonstrate he’d be worth anything more than a one- to two-year deal in FA. A 70-inning Arodys Vizcaino, something the world has never seen, would be huge for this team this year.

Ben Zobrist got 520 PAs and is not listed as a starter at any position. In fact, he got more PAs last year than the “starters” at SS, 3B, LF, CF, and RF. Similarly, Ian Happ is not listed as a starter at any position and got almost the same amount of PAs.

Same with Marwin Gonzalez. Not a “starter”, but got more PAs than the “starters” at SS, CF, RF, and DH.

If you don’t do this way, you’re a bad contract to Josh Donaldson, an injury to Ronald Acuna, or an effectiveness by Ender Inciarte away from “Charlie Culberson, 600 PA starter”. Ben Zobrist is Jason Heyward insurance. Marwin Gonzalez ended up being Jake Marisnick insurance. You’re going to give someone 500 PAs who is not listed at the top of your depth chart more often than not whether you like it or not, and the best teams have someone they actually want to give them to.

Stu was within $50K of Folty, Vizzy, and Culby’s arb figures combined (unless he updated them within the last 10 minutes but didn’t put the exact figures reported; unlikely). Ya know, we really just don’t deserve Stu. And since he never comments anymore, I think he agrees. :)

@99 I’m not as interested in seeing the Braves playing as aggressively on Realmuto as you, Roger. I just feel it’d be so much easier, and cheaper (prospect capital) to squeeze some more wins out of other spots. Plus, the Braves have at least a competent catching tandem in the fold. Yeah, they’re not going to “Wow” anyone, maybe- but they’ll be effective.

That said, I largely don’t hate what you thought was a fair package; giving up Wright being the only exception there. I’m not trading him, if I’m the GM, under any circumstance that doesn’t have a guy named Mike Trout coming back. If they’d do your deal, maybe with Pache and/or Gohara over Wright, cool. I wouldn’t hate on it.

If you let Teheran eat innings the first few months and stick with the plan to provide an extra day of rest whenever possible, you're less likely to end up in a position where you may need to limit the younger arms down the stretch