Opinion: Don’t be shocked if Harper kills Northern Gateway

Greg Rickford is sworn in as minister of state for science and technology, and Federal Economic Development Initiative for Northern Ontario during a ceremony at Rideau Hall in Ottawa on Monday, July 15, 2013. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld ORG XMIT: ajw144

Photograph by: Adrian Wyld
, THE CANADIAN PRESS

Is Prime Minister Stephen Harper about to toss Enbridge under the bus? With a federal cabinet decision on the Northern Gateway pipeline project due any day, many British Columbians believe federal approval is inevitable. Yet signs now point to the Tories turning away from Enbridge’s troubled oil export proposal, in the hope it dies quietly before the next federal election.

The Enbridge saga has been a long, costly lesson for the energy industry and the Conservative party. Sacrificing Northern Gateway would certainly annoy the state-owned Chinese oil companies that have bankrolled the proposal. However, the consequences of forcing it through could be worse, for the Canadian oilpatch, and for Conservative MPs seeking re-election in B.C.

If Alberta is built on oilsands, British Columbia is more like political quicksand: not impossible to traverse if you stay calm and swim carefully but thrash around and it will suck you down.

Enbridge found that out the hard way, antagonizing First Nations along the route with a hardball style of negotiation developed on the other side of the Rockies, in treaty country.

Then Joe Oliver stepped in, doing Gateway more harm than good. The former natural resources minister’s 2012 diatribe, painting British Columbians as unpatriotic eco-radicals, only served to galvanize opposition to the project. Within Tory circles it is now generally acknowledged the government’s communications style during those months was a mistake, from which the party’s brand is still recovering in B.C.

Oliver’s replacement on the pipeline file is part of an attempt at a reset. Greg Rickford is a former nurse who once served the Kitasoo-Xai’Xais community in Klemtu, on the B.C. coast. First Nations leaders say Rickford understands the political landscape here better than any of his cabinet colleagues. He believes his former patients, and their neighbours, when they say they will stop raw bitumen from leaving Kitimat.

If Rickford was simply trying to mollify concerns, you’d think he would include the North Coast in new tanker safety measures announced in May. He promised co-ordinated oil spill plans for Saint John (terminus for the proposed Energy East pipeline) and the Salish Sea (where Kinder Morgan’s tankers already sail). But on Kitimat, Rickford was silent. It seems his department doesn’t anticipate oil tanker traffic on the North Coast any time soon.

Rickford was back in B.C. last week announcing new ways to engage First Nations in energy infrastructure decisions. This time he chose to speak in Prince Rupert, a potential hotbed of liquefied natural gas development and the proposed terminus for Lax Kw’alaams businessman Calvin Helin’s pipeline for refined crude. Again, Lax Kw’alaams Mayor Garry Reece made it clear the community will not support heavy oil exports. Rickford’s response? “I heard him loud and clear.”

To put it bluntly, Rickford and his party have plenty to lose in mishandling the Gateway file. A few swing ridings in B.C. could make or break the Conservative majority in 2015. Harper needs his western base to hang together, and that means not stoking discord and alienation between Albertans and British Columbians.

Plowing ahead with Northern Gateway would do just that, provoking a serious, multi-year political crisis. First Nations would hit the Crown with lawsuits, then blockade the route. Busloads of retirees, energy workers, and opposition politicians promise to do the same. B.C. Premier Christy Clark would have a mandate to follow through on her threats and withhold provincial construction permits. If Ottawa tried to muscle in on her jurisdiction, other provinces would erupt in protest.

The whole exercise would be disruptive, expensive for taxpayers and entirely avoidable. Not only would voters have only the Conservatives to blame, the fracas would exacerbate hostility toward other resource companies, causing further delays.

The smartest political move would be to do the unexpected and reject it. That’s what voters in Kitimat did in a municipal plebiscite in April. But even if Harper’s pride will not permit a full about-face, there are plenty of ways to achieve the same end result.

For example, the government could approve federal permits, on the condition that Enbridge return to seek approval from affected First Nations, this time with no help from the Crown, or former ministers like Jim Prentice. That’s the scenario Enbridge CEO Al Monaco appears to be preparing for. He told investors recently not to expect shovels in the ground any time soon, “regardless of the federal government’s decision.”

“The regulatory process is one step,” said Monaco. “The focus now is on re-engaging some of the aboriginal groups and stakeholders along the right of way to better understand their views and address any remaining concerns.”

First Nations and British Columbians have made their views and concerns quite clear. If Rickford and Harper leave Enbridge to fend for itself, that’s just a slow, quiet way of killing the project. Don’t be shocked.

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Greg Rickford is sworn in as minister of state for science and technology, and Federal Economic Development Initiative for Northern Ontario during a ceremony at Rideau Hall in Ottawa on Monday, July 15, 2013. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld ORG XMIT: ajw144

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