Hmmm...... Going Against The Grain

Sorry... this update is later than I wanted it to be... but as I have said many times before... it's better to be accurate than first. However, if you are first & accurate then you have yourself a winner. Stop rambling!!!

I have noticed a few comments about including a legend with some of the graphics and I will say I am sorry. You must be first time readers and I don't want to disappoint because I normally include one. Also.. it was 6am and I was dog tired and barely got those maps up so I was struggling!

There was a NWS conference call that pulled all media and other folks together for a discussion about the looming weather system. First, I hate conference calls. Second, I was already up to my elbows in trying to figure this whole thing out. Finally, I didn't need any distractions around that time... I was already second guessing myself so I didn't need other opinions really messing with my head.

To "Go Against The Grain" is basically what I am going to do here. It's a risky move, but I have to do it! It feels like the right thing to do. Some will just go along to cover themselves... I am not going to do that tonight!

12am-5am Tuesday: Snow will slide into most of eastern Kentucky. It will be quickly followed by the mixing line of frezzing rain & sleet. I believe this will be the period where we accumulate most of our ice. Maybe add another couple of hours on the end just to be safe. That will hang around for a couple of hours before it looks like surface temps will climb above freezing. This opens the door for some rain.

5:01am-noon Tuesday: The bulk of this time will be full of the the colors of the radar, The rain, mix line, and snow. The rain will spend a great deal of time along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. It will probably last beyond the time I have listed. The mix line will set up shop between I-64 and the Hal Rogers Parkway. It will likely meander north and south slightly during this time frame. It could even be pushed even further to the north and keep most of us in rain for a lengthy little time period. Thus, the reason we have a flood watch that will go into effect Tuesday morning. This part of the system could very well end up as a widespread rain event! I wouldn't be surprised if we had more than 3 inches of rain in some areas. Locations along or north of I-64 will see mainly snow throughout the day!

Noon-midnight: Most areas from north to south will begin to see the change over to snow. Some of this could be pretty heavy at times and really add up considering the nature of this system. Some of you will go from no snow to a couple of inches.

Midnight-Weds PM: Everyone is seeing snow and the totals will range from 1" in the south to 8" in northern Kentucky. Many of us could see up to 6" by the time it is all said and done on Wednesday. Well see some moisture come in off the Lakes that will keep our snow chances alive. Especially, here in eastern Kentucky.

This won't be the end of the snow chances... I expect this to continue through the weekend. Not the major storm... but other disturbances.

These are the graphics I made with the weather computer! I usually slack off on detail for areas outside of eastern Kentucky so what you see out west isn't what's expected out there. I have mentioned the GFS, GEM, WRF, EURO, and many others... I call these the CALDWELL M-1... the first part is self explanatory. The M is Mind and one is just simply the Number one...lol... So some could read it as CALDWELL's MIND is #1 LOL

The ice accumulation will occur early Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon. The snow will pick up again on Tuesday evening and last through Wednesday. The Winter Storm Warning runs through Wednesday morning... however... the snow will continue past the expiration time. It will just go below the warning status.

Just remember... this situation can change and change in a hurry! That's why I have included such wide areas for the potential impact. This is one of the hardest systems to forecast. If the track changes by just a few miles it will throw my entire forecast off! Please be gentle :)

Here's warning specific information from the NWS:

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM ESTWEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM ESTWEDNESDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AMTUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL HEAVILY AT TIMESTHROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHESPER HOUR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW ISEXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BY NOON AND THEN MIX WITH RAIN ATTIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO ORSLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILLTHEN LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BYDAWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND ICEACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM2 TO 6 INCHES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE INTO THEDAY ON WEDNESDAY. THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF ICE FROMFREEZING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED. DOWNED POWER LINES...TREES... OR TREELIMBS...COULD RESULT FROM THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE. RESIDENTS SHOULDPREPARE FOR POSSIBLE EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL COULD ALSO BEEXTREMELY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

THE EXACT AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFFECTED BYTHE TRACK OF THIS STORM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THERECONTINUES TO BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THEEXACT TRACK OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...SO BE SURE TO LISTEN FORLATER UPDATES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHERRADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. FOR MOREINFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

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...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO ALSO BRING A THREAT OF FLOODINGTUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TOEASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AREASALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE ACOMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...LIMITING THETHREAT OF FLOODING...WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCEMORE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONSALONG THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS. EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATIONAMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND THE RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL IN ADDITION TOANY MELTING OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BRINGS THE THREAT OF FLOODINGTO MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ELLIOTT... ESTILL...MENIFEE AND POWELL. IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...JOHNSON AND MARTIN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...LAUREL...MCCREARY... PULASKI...ROCKCASTLE...WAYNE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BELL...BREATHITT...CLAY...FLOYD...HARLAN... JACKSON...KNOTT...KNOX...LEE...LESLIE...LETCHER...MAGOFFIN... MORGAN...OWSLEY...PERRY...PIKE AND WOLFE.

* FROM 7 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS TONIGHT...REACHING TENNESSEE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAL FLOODING WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...AREA RIVERS WILL EVENTUALLY RUN HIGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN AND THE KENTUCKY RIVER BASIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FLOODING.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.

This Somerset weathercam should update every few minutes. I chose it since it provides one of the best views of a downtown in our viewing area.

Posted: 11:26 AM
- Republicans are using a $400,000 state payment to settle sexual harassment claims in their campaign to wrest control of the governor's mansion and state House of Representatives from Democrats.

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