The Buccaneers would be foolish to start Ryan Fitzpatrick over Jameis Winston

Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing good football. He is not a good quarterback. Those things aren’t mutually exclusive. If you need a recent example, just look at the quarterback the Buccaneers beat on Sunday to push their record to 2-0. Nick Foles looked like an elite quarterback for two weeks last winter and has reverted back to the hesitant, inaccurate quarterback he has been throughout his career.

We know what Fitzpatrick is, and it’s not this. He’s completing nearly 80% of his passes. Compare that to his sub-60 career mark. He’s thrown eight touchdowns to just one interception. Compare that to his career 1.3-to-1 TD-INT ratio. He’s averaging 13.5 yards per attempt. Compare that to his 6.7 career average. I’m going out on a rather sturdy limb when I say there is no way he keeps this up.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have a far more talented quarterback returning from suspension after Week 3, but it’s looking like the Bucs are going to ride Fitzpatrick’s hot hand even if that means keeping Jameis Winston on the bench. At least that’s what NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport reported early Sunday.

That said, sources say the Bucs might hold off installing Winston as the starter when he returns from suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy in Week 4. With a short week after playing on Monday night in Week 3, Ryan Fitzpatrick could remain the starter for at least another week.

Winston has been in this same offense since he’s been in the league. He doesn’t need the extra day of preparation. And there’s the little matter of Winston being the better player … by a significant margin, which is the only thing the Buccaneers should consider when deciding who starts in Week 4. He’s got a better arm, he’s more comfortable in the pocket and he’s better at reading defenses.

There isn’t any one thing that Fitzpatrick does better than the 2015 first-overall pick. The biggest knocks against Winston have been his inconsistent decision-making and accuracy. This is where we point out that he has Fitzpatrick beat in both career completion percentage (60.8%to 59.8%) and interception percentage (2.8% to 3.3%). These two also played significant snaps with the same supporting cast a season ago, and Winston averaged more yards-per-attempt (7.7 to 6.8) and posted a better passer rating (92.2 to 86.0).

The biggest difference between the 2017 Buccaneers and this high flying 2018 team is a healthy and developed supporting cast, including a new play-caller in Todd Monken. The question shouldn’t be Can Fitzpatrick possibly keep this up? It should be If Fitz can do this throwing in this offenses, imagine what a better quarterback could do in it?

Fitzpatrick has received tremendous support from his teammates. He was sacked only once against the Eagles’ dominant pass rush. In Week 1, he was pressured on just six of his 34 dropbacks. And with Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate getting open for him AND time in the pocket, he is living a quarterback’s dream.

Fitzpatrick has made some truly outstanding throws (especially on throws downfield) but what are the chances that Fitzpatrick, who has been one of the league’s most inaccurate quarterbacks over the last decade, suddenly developed into Drew Brees at the age of 35? How many times do we have to go through this? Just ask fans in Buffalo, Houston, Tennessee and New York how this ends.

“The percentages say you should go for it almost every time. We’ve studied the analytics on it and the problem with looking at it like that – those are all looking at all fourth downs over the course of the season. You might get three in a row, but if I don’t get it in this particular game, we might be losing, and I might be out of here. ”

Yeah, that guy is definitely going with public sentiment, because if he goes the other way and it backfires he “might be out of here.” Then again, starting should be considered a risky move. And based on the thousands of snaps we’ve seen from both players over the course of their careers, that’s clearly Winston.

The Buccaneers would be foolish to start Ryan Fitzpatrick over Jameis Winston

Ryan Fitzpatrick has played good football, but we know what he is, and it isn’t this.

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