Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Jobless Claims Drop for 12th Week; Falling to Below 500,000 For First Time Since Nov. 2008

The Department of Labor reported today that jobless claims (four-week moving average) dropped for the 12th straight week, and fell below 500,000 for the first time since November 8, 2008. The 16,500 drop in jobless claims to 496,500 from last week's 513,000 was the third largest weekly decline this year, behind a 22,000 drop in July and a 26,000 drop in January.

It might be happening slowly, but the labor market is gradually recovering.

Ardent, you forgot to mention that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell in November after falling in October. Durable goods orders and shipments declined in October according to the Census Bureau

Mortgage applications for purchases and refinancings are down, despite record low interest rates.

496,500 MORE people will not have much reason to feel thankful this week but, on the bright side, 16,500 more people dodged that bullet compared to last week. Since this is a short work week and employers are not completely heartless, I'm sure claims will fall some more in the coming weeks.

Mind you it wasn't because people got jobs. It's because over 40,000 people dropped out of the labor force since April. They certainly aren't drawing unemployment benefits since that requires a work search.

Many people think our high minimum wage is keeping unemployment high. A lot of retirees and nonworking spouse started looking for work so that probably inflated the rate, but we've had nonstop job losses every month.

House sales are up but the properties are garbage. I thought about buying an investment home but there's nothing nice enough I could rent out.

I've never seen it this bad in OR. Whoever says stuff is getting better has seen the movie The Postman too many times. It's more like going postal. Portland offices are turning into ghost towns.

I would like to bring to your attention the $59B domino, known as Dubai World Investment. I guarantee you that a second stimulus EMERGENCY FUNDING will be pushed by our Congress and President, over the holidays, to bail out foreign banking interests. Also keep an eye on the enormous debt owned by Deutsche Bank. The $2T delayed the inevitable by a year, and did nothing more than reflate a bubble in your beloved emerging markets, stocks, and commodities.