Light for Dems in 6th?

GOP-Dem gap narrower than 2009

Nov. 9, 2013

Congressman Bob Goodlatte speaks to a crowd at the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Chamber of Commerce invitation to a question and answer session for the community at Harrisonburg's Holiday Inn on Thursday, Nov. 7. / Holly Marcus / Special to the Ne

Written by

Last week’s statewide election results lifting two Democrats to Virginia’s top two executive posts could show an opening to make competitive the 2014 race for the 6th Congressional District seat, though one analyst thinks the Democratic challenge is still a long-shot.

Staunton City Councilman Bruce Elder is vying for the Democratic nomination to challenge 11-term Republican incumbent Bob Goodlatte for western Virginia’s seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Statewide Democratic victories Tuesday that carried Terry McAuliffe to the governorship and Ralph Northam to the lieutenant governor’s office demonstrated the party’s growing strength in Virginia. A winner has yet to be named in the tightly contested race for attorney general, the results of which are pending a recount.

As for the 6th Congressional District, what has been a reliably Republican area showed just a hint of a shift in the race for lieutenant governor. In 2009, Republican Bill Bolling garnered 66 percent of the district’s vote in the area against the 33 percent garnered by Democrat Jody Wagner.

On Tuesday, GOP lieutenant governor candidate E.W. Jackson managed 58 percent in the district compared to Northam’s 41 percent. The lieutenant governer’s race is the only one among the three statewide posts that can be compared across election cycles for the district. This year’s governor’s face included Libertarian Robert Sarvis, while races in both years had local candidates whose presence likely skewed the vote toward them — Bath County’s Creigh Deeds for governor in 2009 and Harrisonburg’s Mark Obenshain for attorney general this year.

Still, the region’s electoral demographics will make a Democratic challenge to Goodlatte a longshot, said Geoff Skelley, an analyst with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

“At the end of the day, the district is very Republican, so it would be very difficult for a Democrat to win,” Skelley said.

And the popular sentiment against Congress pervasive today doesn’t always make reelection difficult for incumbents, he added.

(Page 2 of 2)

“Goodlatte has a very long history, and while a lot polls show Congress is not very popular, generally speaking, constituents like their member of Congress,” Skelley said.

The Congressman would have to suffer a devastating personal scandal to give a Democratic challenger an opening in next year’s Congressional campaign, he added.

David Bottenfield, chariman of the Staunton Democratic Committee, said Tuesday’s elections did have its positive signs, even if they’ll be hard to apply to next year’s race.

“We are encouraged that candidates who represent the more extreme have not been well-received by voters,” said Bottenfield. Critics of the Republican party’s statewide ticket thought Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli and Jackson were to far right of the mainstream to be elected.

“At the same time,” Bottenfield said, “we realize that the 6th District is more conservative than the rest of the state.”

After a talk in Harrisonburg on Thursday, Goodlatte expressed confidence in his prospect of winning a 12th term in Congress next year.

“The ideas of limited government and individual responsibility that I have espoused in my representation of people are very vibrant here, and did very well in this election,” he said after speaking with the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Chamber of Commerce. “I think that will hold true again next year.”