Strategist: Don't listen to strategists

Strategists are Wall Street’s version of The Oracle: Investors consult these professionals for clues about the market’s future.

But one brave Bank of America strategist is saying investors are best served doing exactly the opposite of what the majority of these strategists recommend. That’s especially now, writes Savita Subramanian, equity & quant strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a note to clients.

Wall Street strategists are more bearish on stocks now than they were when the market was bottoming in March 2009. Yes, you read that right, strategists were extremely bearish on stocks just as the market was hitting rock bottom, when they should have been bullish.

And that’s precisely why Subramanian thinks that stocks are looking attractive: Because most strategists say they’re not. Subramanian says stocks rise 98% of the time, by a median 27% in twelve months, when strategists are as bearish as they are now.

Subramanian measures the bullishness of strategists by averaging their recommended allocation to stocks at the end of each month. And reliably, when strategists says don’t buy stocks, you should be buying, Subramanian says.

“We have found that Wall Street’s consensus equity allocation has historically been a reliable contrary indicator,” he writes. “In other words, it has historically been a bullish signal when Wall Street was extremely bearish, and vice versa.”

The chart from BofA Merrill Lynch below shows how strategists’ feelings toward stocks ebb and flow, and are at very bearish levels now: