Fighting for Survival and Peace through Instability

Autocrats who fight wars and lose are likely to be exiled, jailed, or killed.

An autocrat might fight for survival when he expects a coup to happen without some sort of major disruption to the status quo.

But sometimes the autocrat’s fears can lead to peace. A leader might pursue peace through instability and avoid a war even though it is in the national interest, precisely because he is worried he will die in the unlikely event the war goes poorly.