Wednesday, April 30, 2014

The Explainer - Ukraine: The Orange Revolution That Turned Bitter

Chaos rule Ukraine. The former Soviet republic is in deep turmoil. In the last few weeks, a host of
political developments have taken place in Ukraine and its province, Crimea.
Some of the developments have taken acquired geostrategic overtones, turning
the internal affairs of Ukraine into an international political slugfest
between Russia on one side and the United States and the European Union on the
other side.

Events are moving at a fast-pace in Ukraine and
Russia. Given the number of parties involved—Ukraine, Russia, the European
Union and the United States—and the varied interests they have, it becomes important that I discuss this issue in great detail. To this end, I will
split this Explainer on Ukraine into two parts; in this first part, I will focus on the
parties involved and the genesis of the current crisis, which dates back to the
so-called Orange Revolution in 2004 while the second and concluding Explainer on Ukraine will
analyse the evolving situation and what it means for all involved. In the second part of this Explainer I will also focus on the Russian designs on eastern Ukraine.

Latest Developments

However, to recapture the latest developments in Ukraine in
a nutshell, here they are. Ukraine’s
parliament voted to remove President Viktor Yanukovych; Parliament appointed opposition leader Oleksander Turchynov as speaker/Interim President.

In the vote, parliament also moved to have early elections on
25 May 2014. Imprisoned opposition leader and former prime minister Yulia
Tymoshenko was released after spending 2 1/2 years in prison. The death toll in
clashes between anti-government

Viktor Yanukovych

protesters and police climbed to over 160.

The protests broke out in November last year following Mr
Yanukovych’s unwillingness to sign a trade deal with the European Union and
instead accept financial help from Russia. The protests remained largely peaceful
until January, when some anti-government activists were killed. But the violence
escalated after the president’s forces attacked following a broken truce,
leaving dozens dead.

Brief
backgrounder on Ukraine

Ukraine is located insouthwest former USSR. It is
bounded in the east by Russia, the north by Belarus, the west by Poland,
Slovakia, Hungary, while Romania and Moldova are to the country’s southwest. In
the south, there is the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Ukraine has a temperate
continental climate. Rainfall is unevenly distributed. Winters are cold with
regular snowfalls everywhere except the South. Summer is quite hot and dry. The
Ukrainian territory consists mostly of fertile plains or steppes. Then
there are the Carpathian and Crimean mountain ranges. The country is
agriculturally prosperous, especially in the production of wheat and
vegetables. Among the former Soviet republics, it is the most densely
populated. The country is rich in minerals, especially coal and iron. It has a
population of about 44 million and an area of 6.03 lakh square kilometre. Native
Ukrainians comprise about 82% of the total population while Russians make up
17% of the population.

Political
Setup

In 1991, when the disintegration of the Soviet Union became
apparent, the Ukrainian parliament declared independence from the communist
superpower.

Today, Ukraine
is a Presidential Republic. The President has the power to appoint and dismiss
ministers and regional governors. He also has the power to initiate
legislation. The President also nominates the Prime Minister who must be
approved by the Parliament called Verkhovna Rada. It is widely believed that
the Ukrainian political system is characterised by excessive state control,
widespread corruption, and rampant abuse of state machinery by the political
and bureaucratic classes.

The 2004 Orange
RevolutionMost of the Ukrainian political players involved in the current
dispute came into international prominence in the aftermath of a disputed
election in 2004.

A disputed election
campaign and the consequent disputed result plunged the country into a
leadership standoff. The two lead candidates for the presidency were then Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovych and his rival Viktor Yushchenko.

Viktor Yanukovych, backed by Russia (and by then
outgoing president Leonid Kuchma, who was also pro-Russia), made a strong
relationship and greater integration with Russia as his main political plank.
For this reason, Russia openly threw its weight behind Yanukovych.

Viktor Yushchenko, a pro-Western liberal, promised closer
ties with the European Union and in fact, he ardently stood for Ukraine’s
integration into European Union. In the November 2004 presidential election, Yanukovych was declared the winner
with 49.4% of the total votes polled, while Yushchenko finished runner-up
with 46.61%.

The Opposition cried foul and accused the Yanukovych
government of committing widespread fraud in the electoral process.
International observers from the European Union (EU) and the Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD), who were in the Ukraine as neutral
observers, also found glaring irregularities in the election process.

Yushchenko and his supporters besieged the presidential
palace in the capital, Kiev, waving orange flags (the party’s flag), calling
for the annulment of the election. International observers have coined a
nickname for these developments – Orange Revolution.

A month after the election, the country’s Supreme
Court annulled the result of the presidential election and called for fresh
elections. In the election, Yushchenko won handsomely. He made
Yulia Tymoshenko the prime minister in his government.

With an eye on integration with the European Union, Yushchenko’s government moved toward stepping up cooperation with the EU.
Kiev’s pro-EU policies set off alarm bells in Moscow.

Russia feared that if
Ukraine became a member of the EU, then not only will the EU come to Russia’s
doorstep but it will also significantly lower the political and strategic
influence Moscow could wield in its neighbourhood.

Yulia Tymoshenko

Unfortunately, the fruits of the Orange Revolution
soon turned bitter for Yushchenko’s government. His government, especially prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was accused of perpetuating the system of crony capitalism,
rampant corruption and systemic abuse of the government machinery by the
political and bureaucratic class.

Both Yushchenko and Tymoshenko paid for their failure
to reap the dividends of the Orange Revolution. In early 2010, after Yushchenko was denied his party’s nomination,Yulia Tymoshenko lost the presidential
election to her bitter rival, Yanukovych. Soon after, she was jailed for
abuse of official power.

It seemed history had turned a full circle in Ukraine. Yanukovych went back on his predecessor’s integration
plans with EU and moved closer to Moscow. A faltering economy, political
repression, crony capitalism and moving away from the EU and getting closer to
Russia once again brought the Ukrainians into the street, sparking widespread
protests against the government.

In the second part, soon to be published, I will focus on the current developments in Ukraine and Russia's plans in the region.

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I am employed as a Teacher and an Executive Editor with an education training company. In this space I blog on my favorite interests - politics and economics - and anything else that rouses my curiosity. My Twitter handle is @nocabbagesbj.