Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Polling Pollies

Only in the bizarre world of the Melbourne City council elections would a poll conducted by the candidate himself be accepted as legitimate.

Gary Morgan, who inherited the Roy Morgan Research company which was once the leading political polling company before Newspoll and others came along, has published the results of a survey of 330 electors.

The Herald Sun and the ABC republished them, with little questioning of their origin or methodology.

The poll description says both residents and business were polled. And then also suggests that only residents in the municipality were polled.

Disturbingly, it appears that only one candidate - Adam Bandt - had his party affiliation read out to survey respondents.

Confirming the largely useless nature of the poll is the fact that 31.5% of those surveyed said they were undecided about their first preference and a further 25% were undecided about their second.

Certainly the polling - if accurate - suggests that Doyle at this stage has the most visibility of all the candidates with 87.45 people of 330 supporting him . No surprise there, as a former state Liberal leader that he'd have the most visibility. Although some people might think it's a surprise that it is possible to have .45 of a voter.

The other extremely odd aspect of the poll is the claim that the bloke who conducted the poll had 3.5% of first preference support with 18% giving him a second preference.

Leaving aside the ethical implications of a pollster candidate conducting polling on himself, these numbers don't make a lot of sense at all.

Comment:I would not read much into this poll. It clearly has no statistical merit. For example the 2nd preference and aggregated 1st and 2nd preference data does not take into consideration the fold up of the election and is in effect double counting votes. IE Gary Morgan would not receive any preferences from Robert Doyle as Robert Doyle out polls Morgan. Little wonder why Morgan gallup poll is being out performed by other polling agencies. - Melbcity

Published results of Morgans flawed survey (October 29/30, 2008)

Candidate

1st Preference

2nd Preference#

1st or 2nd Preference

Robert Doyle

26.5 %

16 %

42.5 %

Adam Bandt (Greens)

16.5 %

4.5 %

21 %

Catherine Ng

10 %

15 %

25 %

Gary Singer

5 %

6 %

11 %

Gary Morgan

3.5 %

18 %

21.5 %

Nick Columb

3 %

2 %

5 %

Peter McMullin

2 %

8 %

10 %

Will Fowles

1.5 %

3 %

4.5 %

Others*

0.5 %

2 %

2.5 %

Can’t Say/ Undecided

31.5 %

TOTAL

100 %

* Other candidates for the role of Lord Mayor of Melbourne are Joseph Toscano, Bob Crawford & Shelley Roberts.# The 31.5% of people who were can’t say/undecided have been eliminated from the 2nd Preference