Polls released this week
in advance of the 26 March presidential election show acting
Russian President Vladimir Putin with approximately 50
percent of the vote. That figure is almost 15 percentage
points lower than a month ago but still puts him far ahead of
Communist candidate Gennadii Zyuganov with approximately 28
percent of the electorate (up 6 percentage points since early
February), Yabloko leader Grigorii Yavlinskii with 8.9
percent (nearly double his support a month ago), and Liberal
Democratic Party of Russia candidate Vladimir Zhirinovskii
with 3.8 percent. PG

ASTROLOGER, SHOIGU PREDICT PUTIN FIRST-ROUND WIN...

Georgii
Rogozin, who served as official astrologer to former
President Boris Yeltsin, has said that the planets are
aligned for a victory in the first round for acting President
Putin, Reuters reported on 22 March. Rogozin said that
Putin's win will bring with it a lengthy period of stronger
and more centralized Russian leadership. Meanwhile, Deputy
Prime Minister and Emergencies Minister Sergei Shoigu said
that Putin must win in the first round, Interfax reported. "A
second round would not be welcome," he said. "Everybody is
tired. Furthermore, it would involve more spending." PG

...WHILE ELECTION OFFICIAL FORESEES RUN-OFF

Central Election
Commission head Aleksandr Veshnyakov told "Izvestiya" on 22
March that he believes the probability of a second round is
"very high" but noted that a run-off would not "complicate"
the work of the commission. AFP quoted analyst Yurii
Korgunyuk of the Center for Applied Political Studies as
similarly saying there is a strong likelihood Putin will face
Zyuganov in second round. He reasoned that while Communist
supporters are likely to come out in force on election day,
"many of those who might vote for Putin are not motivated."
JC

PUTIN SUPPORTS HUMAN RIGHTS...

Acting President Putin on 22
March spoke out in favor of defending human rights in Russia,
DPA reported. Russia can grow stronger only if "people have
enough to live on, their national and cultural needs are
protected, and human rights are respected," ITAR-TASS quoted
him as saying during a visit to Kazan. Moreover, Putin added,
the actions of the state "should never have negative
consequences for the population." PG

...OUTLINES ECONOMIC APPROACH...

During a 22 March speech in
Naberezhnye Chelny, acting President Putin called for
absolute guarantees of ownership rights, the creation of
equal conditions for all economic entities, the setting up of
clear regulations in the marketplace, and a fight against red
tape, ITAR-TASS reported. He said he favors "normal business
relations with all foreign countries, both in the West and in
the East." He urged a protectionist approach to allow
businesses to flourish but said this does not mean building
"a closed economy." He rejected calls for dividing up major
machine-building enterprises, saying that "we have to ensure
that machine-building in Russia develops faster than in the
West." He called for reducing the tax burden by improving tax
collection. And he said he will oppose any efforts at belt-
tightening that would hurt those who are most in need of
social protection. PG

...CALLS FOR NEW, IMPROVED FEDERALISM

Speaking in Kazan on
22 March, acting President Putin said that relations between
the center, the regions, and localities must be improved,
Interfax reported on 22 March. Government at the municipal
level, he said, should be "transparent, accessible, and
controlled by the people." But in response to a question, he
ruled out excessive devolution of power to the regions. "We
must aim to make life equally good in all Russian regions. We
will not achieve that without a unified legal and economic
space in Russia," Putin said. Tatarstan's President Mintimer
Shaimiev, for his part, suggested creating a commission on
which all federation subjects would be represented and that
would iron out contradictions and discrepancies between the
constitutions and legislation of the federation subjects and
the Russian Federation, RFE/RL's Kazan bureau reported. Putin
pledged his personal support for Shaimiev as someone who
could positively influence the evolution of relations between
Moscow and the federation subjects. PG/LF

COSMONAUTS BACK PUTIN, SOLDIERS' MOTHERS DON'T

Nikolai
Popov, the chief of staff of the Cosmonauts Training Center,
told ITAR-TASS on 22 March that Russian cosmonauts support
acting President Putin for election. But the same day the
influential Soldiers' Mothers Committee called on Russians to
vote against him, saying that Putin's victory would mean more
war, AP reported. "If you are voting for war, put aside money
for your children's funeral," one placard at the
organization's Moscow news conference said. PG

PUTIN THRILLED BY LOOP IN JET

Acting President Putin said in
Kazan on 22 March that he was thrilled by rolling over the
jet in which he flew from and to Chechnya, Reuters reported.
"When we were flying back," Putin said, "the pilot and I
dipped the aircraft's wings and then we pushed on to turning
the plane over on itself--what you call a roll-over. After
the maneuver, the pilot took back control of the plane and
what I felt was quite a thrill." PG

YAVLINSKII SAYS PUTIN IS NO DEMOCRAT

Yabloko presidential
candidate Yavlinskii said on 22 March that acting President
Putin is a "secret communist" and a danger to democracy,
Reuters reported. Yavlinskii added that Putin is
indistinguishable from Communist leader Zyuganov: "There's no
difference between Zyuganov and Putin. Zyuganov simply likes
a red flag and Putin doesn't care about that," Yavlinskii
added. PG

NEMTSOV, KHAKAMADA BACK YAVLINSKII PROPOSAL

Boris Nemtsov
and Irina Khakamada, two leaders of the Union of Right
Forces, said on 22 March that they welcome Yabloko candidate
Yavlinskii's call for a broad coalition of rightist forces
and will campaign for him, Interfax reported. Meanwhile,
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia candidate Zhirinovskii
said he will not withdraw from the election and announced he
will go to Belgrade to speak to Serbian leaders, ITAR-TASS
reported. PG

ELECTION COMMISSION WARNS YAVLINSKII ABOUT CANVASSING ON
MILITARY BASE

The Central Election Commission issued a
warning to Yabloko presidential candidate Yavlinskii over his
appeal to soldiers at a military base in February, Interfax
reported on 22 March. Canvassing on a military base is
prohibited by Russian law. PG

TULEEV CALLS FOR MORE EXECUTIONS

Kemerovo Governor and
presidential candidate Aman Tuleev on 22 March called for an
end to the current moratorium on capital punishment, Interfax
reported. He said that Chechen rebels should be "shot on the
spot." And he noted that it was a mistake to move toward the
abolition of capital punishment. "Banditry still exists in
Russia," Tuleev said. "In Prokopevsk, a cannibal ate eight
people. Well, he is still in a mental clinic, relishing his
memories." PG

Russia's foreign trade surplus of
$4 billion in January 2000 was up from $1.7 billion a year
earlier but down from $5.1 billion in December 1999, Interfax
reported. PG

RUSSIA, VIETNAM BEGIN WORK ON OIL-PROCESSING PLANT

Zarubezhneft and PetroVietnam have begun construction in
central Vietnam of what ITAR-TASS describes as the biggest
and most up-to-date oil processing plant in Southeast Asia.
The plant, which expected to cost some $1.3 billion, will
process 6.5 million tons of crude annually when it goes on
line in 2002, the news agency reported on 22 March. JC

AEROFLOT ACCUSED OF ILLEGAL CAPITAL EXPORTS

Aleksandr
Gromov, the acting head of the Federal Service for Hard
Currency and Export Control, accused Aeroflot on 22 March of
illegally exporting capital, ITAR-TASS reported. The air line
denied the allegations pointing out that Gromov had suggested
that Aeroflot exported more capital than it had in fact
earned during the entire year. PG

RUSSIA SAYS LATVIA RELATIONS AT 'DANGEROUS' STAGE

Aleksandr
Udaltsov, the Russian ambassador to Latvia, said in Riga on
22 March that relations between Russia and Latvia have
reached "a dangerous stage when the negative trend gathers
momentum that may be difficult to halt," Reuters reported. At
the same time, Udaltsov said that he does not favor the use
of sanctions to resolve outstanding differences. Moscow has
sharply criticized Latvia for discriminating against its
Russian-speaking minority and for trying former Soviet
partisans for war crimes. Meanwhile, State Duma speaker
Gennadii Seleznev admonished Lithuanian parliamentary Speaker
Vytautas Landsbergis for his criticism of Russia during
speeches on the 10th anniversary of the declaration of the
re-establishment of Lithuania's independence, ITAR-TASS
reported. PG

DEFENSE MINISTRY SAYS REOPENING NATO OFFICE 'PREMATURE'

Colonel General Leonid Ivashov told Interfax on 22 March that
"the time has not yet come" to open a NATO military
communications mission and information office in Moscow.
Meanwhile, Vice Admiral Mikhail Motsak, the chief of staff of
Russia's Northern Fleet, told Interfax that there are at
least 10 NATO submarines patrolling off Russia's northern
coasts. PG

MOSCOW PREPARED TO CONSIDER MILITARY MEANS TO STOP TALIBAN

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Ivanov said on
Russian Television on 22 March that Moscow might be prepared
to consider using military operations to stop the Taliban
movement if political measures do not work. His comments
follow a Russian appeal to the UN Security Council for
expanded sanctions against the Afghan group and a warning by
a senior Federal Border Guards Service officer that a Taliban
advance to the Tajik-Afghan border could destabilize all of
Central Asia, Interfax reported. Also on 22 March in the
Uzbek border town of Termez, Afghanistan's Northern Alliance
commander Ahmed Shah Massoud and ethnic Uzbek leader
Abdurashid Dostum met for the first time in many years. They
discussed coordinating military actions against the Taliban.
Russian and Uzbek representatives participated in those
talks, according to ITAR-TASS. PG/LF

DEATH RATE TWICE BIRTH RATE IN RUSSIA

The State Statistics
Committee announced on 22 March that in January, there were
195,500 deaths and only 93,900 births, Interfax reported. The
number of deaths increased by 19,3000 from the same period
one year earlier, while the number of births declined by 600.
Meanwhile, the committee reported that unemployment at the
end of February stood at 9.12 million, down 12.3 percent from
February 1999, Interfax said. PG

MOSCOW CONDEMNS ATTACK ON KARABAKH PRESIDENT

A Russian
Foreign Ministry official on 22 March expressed "indignation"
over the previous night's assassination attempt in
Stepanakert against Arkadii Ghukasian, president of the
unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Interfax reported.
"This is not the way to handle political issues." the
official said. In Yerevan, Armenian Prime Minister Aram
Sargsian told the parliament that the situation in the
unrecognized republic is calm. Ghukasian and his wounded
bodyguard and driver were transported to Yerevan for medical
treatment on 22 March. LF

VETERAN ARMENIAN DISSIDENT ASSESSES POLITICAL SITUATION

Speaking at the National Press Club on 22 March, Self-
Determination Union Chairman Paruyr Hairikian, who also heads
the presidential human rights commission, said the
appointment of Aram Sargsian as prime minister was "a
political mistake" in the light of his lack of political
experience, Snark reported. Hairikian characterized the
present situation as a struggle for power by all political
parties and argued that there is a need to amend the
constitution to stipulate that both the president and the
premier are elected for a three-year term. Hairikian
expressed concern over the progress of the inquiry into the
27 October parliament shootings, in particular the arrest of
three suspects solely on the basis of testimony given by the
leader of the five gunmen who perpetrated the killings. LF

ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT AMENDS LAW ON NUCLEAR ENERGY

Deputies
voted on 22 March to amend the law on nuclear energy to
require that the government coordinate with the legislature
any measures on the operation of the existing nuclear power
station or construction of a new one, according to Snark, as
cited by Groong. Also on 22 March, an ad hoc commission
presented to the parliament the findings of an inquiry begun
last October that confirm suspicions that corruption and
inefficiency in the energy sector has cost Armenia millions
of dollars over the past eight years, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau
reported. LF

AZERBAIJAN, U.S. PLEDGE TO EXPAND MILITARY COOPERATION

Admiral Charles Abbot, who is deputy commander of the U.S.
Force in Europe, met with Azerbaijan's President Heidar Aliyev
in Baku on 21 March and with Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliev
the following day to discuss expanding bilateral military
cooperation, Turan reported. Abbot expressed his appreciation
to Guliev for the participation of an Azerbaijani contingent
in the KFOR peacekeeping operation in Kosova, and presented
him with a program of measures Azerbaijan is to undertake in
the field of security, defense, humanitarian programs, mine-
clearing, and promoting democracy. LF

AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA RESOLVE PIPELINE DISAGREEMENTS

Meeting
in Tbilisi on 22 March, Azerbaijani President Aliyev and his
Georgian counterpart, Eduard Shevardnadze, reportedly
resolved their outstanding disagreements over the export of
Azerbaijan's Caspian oil via the planned Baku-Ceyhan export
pipeline, AP and Turan reported. Aliyev said at a joint press
conference that he has agreed to increase the transit tariff
that Georgia will receive per metric ton of oil transported
through the pipeline, but he did not say by how much. In late
February, Aliyev said that Tbilisi's demand for 3 percent of
the crude transported plus 20 cents per barrel in transit
fees was "unrealistic." LF

The Central Electoral Commission
wrote to Adjar Supreme Council chairman Aslan Abashidze on 21
March demanding that he permit former Batumi Mayor Tengiz
Asanidze to campaign for the Georgian presidency, Interfax
reported. Asanidze has spent the past seven years in jail
after being convicted of theft of state property. He was
amnestied last fall by President Shevardnadze, but the Adjar
authorities refused to release him (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7
and 12 October 1999). Meanwhile, the OSCE election observer
mission in Georgia has denied the claim by opposition
candidate Djumber Patiashvili's campaign manager Mamuka
Giorgadze that it detailed a special observer to accompany
Patiashvili on his campaign engagements, Caucasus Press
reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 March 2000). LF

LEADING KYRGYZ OPPOSITION FIGURE ARRESTED

Former Bishkek
Mayor and opposition Ar-Namys Party Chairman Feliks Kulov was
taken on 22 March from a Bishkek hospital to the Ministry of
National Security for questioning, Reuters and Interfax
reported. Kulov was charged with abuse of office during his
term as head of the National Security Ministry in 1997-1998.
Also on 22 March, police dispersed several hundred
demonstrators in the town of Kara-Buura who had been
picketing the local administration building to protest
Kulov's defeat in the 12 March parliamentary runoff. Thirty
protesters were arrested, according to Interfax. LF

Excavators and trucks crossed from
Uzbekistan 10 kilometers into the territory of the South
Kazakhstan Oblast on 22 March and began unsanctioned border
demarcation work, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau reported the
following day quoting an oblast Interior Ministry official.
It is the second such attempt by Uzbekistan this year (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 28 January 2000 and "End Note," 2 February
2000). On 23 March, former Kazakhstan Customs head and
unsuccessful 1999 presidential candidate Ghani Qasymov noted
that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have similar border problems
with Uzbekistan. He called for the Kazakh leadership to begin
discussing the creation of a military bloc of Central Asian
states aligned against Uzbekistan. LF

Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov told
Shell Oil officials on 22 March in Ashgabat that the
proposals submitted earlier this week by Shell's partner, the
U.S. company PSG, for proceeding with construction of the
Trans-Caspian gas export pipeline are unacceptable, Interfax
reported. ITAR-TASS had reported on 20 March that Niyazov
refused to extend PSG's mandate for the project, which
expired in February. Niyazov said that "with virtually no
support at state level," it is unlikely work on the pipeline,
tentatively scheduled to begin in early 2001, will start in
the near future. In Baku, Azerbaijan state oil company
president Natik Aliyev similarly expressed doubt that the
Trans-Caspian pipeline will be completed on schedule in late
2002, according to Interfax. He said "long and detailed"
negotiations will be needed before construction can begin.
But he denied that plans by Azerbaijan to export gas from its
Shah Deniz Caspian deposit by alternative route will render
the Trans-Caspian pipeline unnecessary. LF

BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION SAYS BAN ON MARCHES 'CYNICAL'

The
Belarusian opposition says the recent ban on the march
planned this weekend to mark the anniversary of the
foundation of non-Bolshevik Belarusian Democratic Republic in
1918 is a continuation of the authorities' "cynical anti-
Belarusian policy," RFE/RL's Belarusian Service reported on
22 March. The opposition believes that the ban is intended to
provoke street clashes with the police on 25 March and to
intensify "the climate of distrust and confrontation" in
Belarus. The opposition plans to hold the march, despite the
ban, and claims that it has the constitutional right to
organize street rallies. The Minsk authorities have given
permission only for a meeting to be held on the city's
outskirts on 25 March. Rallies commemorating the Belarusian
Democratic Republic will take place in some 20 cities
throughout the country. JM

UKRAINIAN COAST GUARDS FIRE ON TURKISH FISHING BOATS

Ukrainian coast guards on 22 March opened fire on four
Turkish fishing boats, sinking one vessel, killing one
fisherman, and wounding another, Interfax reported. The
agency said the Turkish fishermen were poaching in Ukraine's
territorial waters. According to Interfax, fire was opened
after the Turkish boats ignored warning shots and one vessel
tried to ram a Ukrainian boat. The Ukrainian coast guards
took aboard all the 18 people from the sunken boat and seized
the other Turkish vessels. Ukrainian Border Guard chief Pavlo
Shysholyn told Ukrainian Television that the Ukrainian side
fired after "the Turkish ships...maneuvered dangerously,
threatening our border guard ships." Reuters quoted a Turkish
Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying on 23 March that Ankara
is seeking information about the incident. JM

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT SAYS REFERENDUM DEPENDS ON COURT VERDICT

Leonid Kuchma said through his spokesman Oleksandr Martynenko
on 22 March that he will cancel his decree on the 16 April
referendum if the Constitutional Court rules that the vote
contravenes the constitution, Interfax reported. Martynenko
added that the court's ruling on the referendum "will be
final in this question." The Central Electoral Commission
told the agency that it is waiting for a ruling on the
constitutionality of the referendum and therefore has not yet
taken any decision on printing referendum ballots. The ruling
is expected no later than 27 March. JM

ESTONIAN PREMIER PRESENTS NATO CASE IN BRUSSELS

Prime
Minister Mart Laar, Defense Minister Juri Luik and acting
Defense Forces commander Colonel Mart Tiru presented
Estonia's NATO action plan to the North Atlantic Council in
Brussels on 21-22 March. During a speech to NATO ambassadors
on 22 March, Laar called the document the "most thorough
state defense document ever adopted" by the country. That
document outlines the incremental increase in defense
spending to 2 percent of GDP by 2002, ETA reported. Laar also
stressed that "special attention is naturally paid to the
Baltic countries' defense cooperation," according to BNS.
During a brief meeting with Laar, NATO Secretary-General Lord
Robertson confirmed he will visit Estonia on 17-18 May,
"Eesti Paevaleht" added. MH

NO DECISION TAKEN ON REVOKING LATVIAN DEPUTY'S MANDATE

A
parliamentary regulatory commission announced on 22 March
that it will not make a decision at this point on whether to
revoke the parliamentary mandate of Janis Adamsons. On 3
March, the Zemgale Regional Court in Riga had ruled that as a
Soviet border guard official, Adamsons was involved with the
KGB (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 March 2000). Although opinions
differ among commission members on whether Adamsons's mandate
violated lustration laws, which bans former KGB operatives
from parliament, the commission has requested that the court
provide all relevant information, BNS reported. MH

LATVIAN TAX OFFICIAL SAYS 40 PERCENT OF TAXES UNCOLLECTED

Head of the State Revenue Service Andrejs Sonciks said on
Latvian Radio on 22 March that some 40 percent of tax
revenues are bypassing the state treasury. That figure
exceeds the earlier State Revenue Service estimate that some
30 percent of tax revenues are not going to the state
coffers, LETA reported. Explaining that employment without
contracts and tax evasion are to blame for this state of
affairs, Sonciks said, "We cannot afford...at this time to
maintain structures in order to combat every tax evader."
Chairman of the parliament's Defense and Interior Affairs
Committee Dzintars Kudums agreed with Sonciks's estimate,
adding that 20 percent of those revenues could be recovered.
MH

SOLIDARITY DEPUTIES WANT PROBE INTO PRESIDENT'S PAST

Deputies of the Solidarity Electoral Action announced on 22
March that they want to appoint a parliamentary commission to
examine allegations that President Aleksander Kwasniewski
committed financial irregularities when he headed the Youth
and Physical Culture Committee in 1989, PAP reported. "Gazeta
Polska" has formerly reported that some $80 million was
illegally diverted from the account of the Central Tourism
and Recreation Fund, which was subordinated to the committee
managed by Kwasniewski. Kwasniewski's chief lawyer Ryszard
Kalisz said all Kwasniewski's activities in the Physical
Culture Committee have already been checked by the Supreme
Audit Chamber, which found no irregularities. JM

CZECH ECONOMY SHOWS WEAK GROWTH

The Czech economy grew by
0.2 percent in 1999, compared with the previous year, Czech
media reported on 23 March, citing figures released by the
Czech Statistical Office. The modest growth comes after two
consecutive years of decreases. On 22 March, the CSU released
figures showing that the Czech Republic received a total of
$5.1 billion in foreign direct investment last year. Among
Central European countries, only Poland received more foreign
investment than the Czech Republic in 1999. VG

PUBLICATION OF 'MEIN KAMPF' TO BE STOPPED?

The Bavarian
federal state government has said it will use its ownership
rights to Adolf Hitler's "Mein Kampf" to stop the Prague
Otakar II publishing house from distributing the book in the
Czech Republic (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 March 2000),
"Pravo" reported on 23 March. VG

CZECH OFFICIALS SURPRISED AT RYABOV'S COMMENTS

The Czech
charge d'affaires in Moscow, Frantisek Masopust, said on 22
March that he does not agree with Russian Ambassador to the
Czech Republic Nikolai Ryabov's assessment of Czech-Russian
relations as "confrontational," CTK reported. Ryabov made the
comments at a meeting with journalists the day before. While
Masopust said relations between the two countries are "normal
and stable," he added that there is room for improvement.
Other Czech officials have responded in a similar manner, but
the opposition Civic Democratic Party's foreign affairs
critic, Jan Zahradil, said communication with the Russian
embassy has worsened since Ryabov became ambassador. Ryabov
has criticized the Czech Republic's recent decision to impose
visas on Russians. He also noted that the Czech Republic has
had no ambassador in Moscow since Lubos Dobrovsky vacated
that post in early February. VG

SLOVAK PARTY CALLS FOR RESTRUCTURING OF GOVERNMENT COALITION

The Party of the Democratic Left (SDL) on 22 March presented
its evaluation of the governing coalition's performance to
the other coalition members, TASR reported. The SDL argues
that there are shortcomings in cooperation among the
parliamentary caucuses of the parties in the government
coalition. The SDL began talking about a "crisis" in the
coalition after Stefan Kosovan was dismissed from his post as
chairman of the board of governors of the state-owned energy
company Slovenska Elektrarne. Kosovan had been nominated to
that post by the SDL. The coalition will discuss the SDL's
assessment next week. VG

SLOVAK CABINET PASSES EU NEGOTIATING POSITION

The Slovak
government on 22 March approved the country's national
program for the adoption of the EU's aquis communautaire and
its negotiations position paper on the first eight chapters
it will discuss with the EU in membership talks, TASR
reported. The same day, the Slovak parliament adopted a
policy paper on the country's foreign-policy priorities,
which include obtaining membership in NATO and the EU.
Meanwhile, NATO Supreme Commander in Europe Wesley Clark met
with Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda and other Slovak
officials during a one-day visit to Bratislava on 22 March.
Clark emphasized that the country can improve its chances for
gaining admission into NATO by reforming its armed forces,
TASR reported. VG

HUNGARIAN GOVERNMENT WILL NOT RESPOND TO CSURKA'S COMMENTS

Prime Minister Viktor Orban told Hungarian Radio on 22 March
that the cabinet is not obliged to respond to comments by
opposition parties. Orban spoke following accusations that
the ruling coalition failed to comment on the remarks of
Istvan Csurka, chairman of the extreme-right Hungarian
Justice and Life Party. Csurka had told the parliament on 20
March that the recent pollution of the Tisza River was an act
of genocide by Romania (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 March
2000). Foreign Minster Janos Martonyi said Csurka's remarks
were "irresponsible and unfounded" and therefore unworthy of
"further analysis." MSZ

CROATIAN PRESIDENT VISITS BOSNIA

Stipe Mesic arrived in
Sarajevo on 23 March for a two-day visit. It is his first
official trip to another country as Croatia's leader. He told
"Oslobodjenje" that his country will no longer interfere in
Bosnia's internal affairs or finance the Herzegovinian para-
state known as Herceg-Bosnia. He argued that the para-state
must be dissolved, calling it a throwback to the days when
Croatia's previous leadership sought to partition Bosnia. The
president pledged that he will restore full legal status as
recognized national minorities to Croatia's Slovenes and
Bosnian Muslims, which the previous leadership abolished.
Mesic is slated to meet with Muslim, Serbian, and Croatian
members of Bosnia's central government. He will also hold
talks with Cardinal Vinko Puljic and Father Petar Andjelovic
of the influential Franciscan fathers. PM

TUDJMAN'S PRESS EMPIRE CRUMBLING

Croatia's parliament
appointed a committee on 22 March to investigate how
individuals close to the Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ)
of the late President Franjo Tudjman acquired ownership of
"Vecernji list" several years ago, "Jutarnji list" reported.
The individuals, whose identities have never been made
public, have long used the mass-circulation Zagreb daily as a
mouthpiece of the HDZ. The government previously announced
plans to sell the Zagreb daily "Vjesnik," which also
represented the HDZ's views. On 22 March, the Split-based
"Slobodna Dalmacija" reported that nearly 100 members of its
staff protested against the pro-HDZ polices of the
newspaper's management. PM

UN: STILL RESISTANCE TO MULTI-ETHNIC BOSNIA

Assistant
Secretary-General Hedi Annabi told the UN Security Council on
22 March that the progress achieved toward integrating
Bosnia's three ethnic communities since the end of the war in
1995 is primarily the result of actions by the international
community. He added that there has been "significant
resistance by entrenched nationalistic and backward-looking
elements, which continues to be encountered at every stage,"
AP reported. The council began to discuss a report by
Secretary-General Kofi Annan, in which he noted that the UN
"has had to take strong action to seek to overcome continued
obstruction, resistance, and delay in some key areas." Those
problems include setting up a joint border police force, the
refusal of the Herzegovinian Croats to integrate their police
with those of the Muslims, and the lack of non-Serbian
members in the Republika Srpska police. PM

BOSNIAN MUHAJEDIN TO BE RESETTLED

Unnamed Muslim officials
in Maglaj told "Oslobodjenje" of 23 March that Bosnia's
Muslim leaders have agreed to resettle Bosnian and foreign
Islamic fighters currently living in the village of Bocinja
Donja. The Muslim authorities will "urge" some 89 Bosnian
Muslim families there to return to their former communities.
The authorities will also ask foreign fighters married to
Bosnian women to resettle in their spouse's home community or
to return to their own country. The officials added that
Bosnian law grants the right of abode to any foreigner who
has become naturalized through marriage to a Bosnian citizen.
Observers note that the presence of the fighters remains a
sore point in relations between the Sarajevo leadership and
NATO. PM

INTERPOL PUTS MILOSEVIC ON WANTED LIST

Interpol has issued a
call on the Internet for the arrest of Yugoslav President
Slobodan Milosevic for genocide and war crimes, RFE/RL's
South Slavic Service reported on 22 March. The appeal also
includes a call for the arrest of four other high-ranking
officials of the Belgrade regime whom the Hague-based war
crimes tribunal indicted in 1999. PM

SERBIAN OPPOSITION SETS PROTEST DATE

Representatives of
Serbia's main opposition parties agreed in Belgrade on 22
March to hold a protest rally there on 14 April (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 22 March 2000). A joint demonstration originally
planned for March never took place because the opposition
leaders could not agree on the order in which they would
speak. Also on 22 March, leaders of the pensioners' union
held a protest meeting to call attention to the poverty
affecting many of Serbia's elderly. PM

NO RUSSIAN POLICE FOR KOSOVA

The Foreign Ministry said in a
statement in Moscow on 23 March that Russia will not send any
police to Kosova. "The position of the United Nations
[leadership] about the speediest deployment of an
international police force in the province causes
incomprehension. On the one hand, attention is constantly
drawn to an acute shortage of police forces there. On the
other, various pretexts are being found to delay for several
months the arrival of Russian Interior Ministry officers for
service in the contingent of the special police of the United
Nations mission," AP reported the statement as saying.
Repeating a view that Russian officials have frequently
expressed, the statement added that "negative
tendencies...have gone too far. The situation regarding
ensuring the security of the non-Albanian population is
constantly growing worse, while the activity of [ethnic
Albanian] separatists, terrorists, and criminal structures is
on the rise." PM

FORMER ROMANIAN OFFICIALS DENY EXISTENCE OF HOT LINE TO
KREMLIN...

Alliance for Romania Chairman Teodor Melescanu,
who was foreign minister under former President Ion Iliescu,
told journalists on 22 March that he is "not aware" that a
"hot line" between Bucharest and the Kremlin existed or that
negotiations with Russia aimed at reviving links between the
former Warsaw Pact capitals have "ever been conducted."
Likewise, Romanian National Party Chairman Virgil Magureanu,
who was head of the Romanian Intelligence Service under
Iliescu, told journalists in Suceava that a hot line "never
existed" and that the "scandal surrounding this problem is
stupid." Former Foreign Intelligence Service head Ioan Talpes
told journalists that "parleys, not negotiations" were under
way with Russia against the background of the pending basic
treaty. He said that "only the Kremlin" was interested in
resuscitating the line, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau and
Mediafax reported. MS

...BUT ROMANIAN DAILY TO PRODUCE PROOF

Testifying on 22
March to the Senate's Defense Commission, General Ioan Sima,
chief of the Special Telecommunications Service, said that
the equipment delivered by Russia in May 1995 (see "RFE/RL
Newsline, 22 March 2000) was not destined for a "hot line but
for "the modernization of international telegraph links' and
that the "hot line" had not existed. He refused to elaborate,
citing "state secrets." But Cornel Nistorescu, editor in
chief of the daily "Evenimentul zilei," said on Romanian
Television that on 23 March his newspaper will publish a
document proving that former Prime Minister Nicolae Vacaroiu
and Melescanu proposed that the government approve an accord
with Russia "concerning specially encrypted international
telephone links." According to Nistorescu, the two were
implementing a decision taken by the Supreme Defense Council,
headed by Iliescu. MS

ROMANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER CONNECTS VISA PROBLEM TO ROMA

Petre Roman said on 21 March that the Romanian government has
an obligation to "protect 23 million Romanians against the
few thousand Gypsies" who are damaging the country's image
abroad and hampering the country's efforts to get off the
EU's visa blacklist, Rompres reported. Roman was speaking
after returning from a meeting of the Romania-EU Association
Council. VG

GREENPEACE ACTIVISTS PROTEST OUTSIDE ROMANIAN MINE

A group
of about 25 Greenpeace activists from various countries have
blocked the entrance to the Aurul gold mine in Baia Mare,
which caused a recent cyanide spill into the Tisza River,
Rompres reported on 22 March. The activists unfolded a banner
reading "Stop Cyanide. Esmeralda Must Pay," in a reference to
the Australian firm that owns the mine. The management of the
Aurul mine has refused to hold talks with the activists. The
activists said they are prepared to protest for several days
if necessary. VG

IMF REPEATS WARNING TO MOLDOVA

Moldovan Parliament Speaker
Dumitru Diakov on 22 March told the legislature Budget
Committee that the country will not receive funding from the
IMF if it does not fulfill every aspect of the memorandum
that the fund signed with the Moldovan government, BASA-Press
reported on 22 March. Diakov was speaking after a meeting
with the IMF's permanent representative in Moldova, Hassan al
Atrash. Prime Minister Dumitru Braghis noted that the Budget
Committee's decision to raise expenditures in the draft
budget runs counter to the IMF's conditions. VG

BULGARIAN OPPOSITION MEMBERS TO MARK NATO BOMBING ANNIVERSARY
IN SERBIA

Members of the Bulgarian Socialist Party have
decided to attend ceremonies in Serbia to mark the
anniversary of the beginning of the NATO bombing campaign
against Yugoslavia last year, BTA reported. The other parties
in parliament have refused to attend the ceremonies,
according to Union of Democratic Forces deputy Dimitur
Abadzhiev. Meanwhile, Aleksandur Tomov, the leader of the
Euro-Left, said on 22 March that his party will send
representatives to a congress of the opposition Social
Democrats in Belgrade. VG

THOUSANDS DEMONSTRATE AGAINST UNEMPLOYMENT IN BULGARIA

More
than 6,000 people marched through the streets of downtown
Sopfia on 22 March to demand higher wages and protest the
country's rising unemployment rate. The rally was organized
by the Confederation of Labor Unions. Confederation leader
Zhelyazko Hristov told the demonstrators he will demand
negotiations with the government. Unemployment in Bulgaria
stands at 17 percent. In other news, the Bulgarian parliament
on 22 March voted to restitute 23,000 hectares of forests to
a medieval monastery in Rila, BTA reported. The forests were
nationalized by the communist regime. VG

CAN PUTIN MOVE RUSSIA BEYOND OBSTRUCTIONISM?

By Christopher Walker

In Soviet times, the prevailing communist concept of
equality was based on the notion that it was fairer for all
to fail than for one to prosper. As Russia has slid from the
reform path and turned further inward over the course of the
past half decade, it is reasonable to ask whether Vladimir
Putin's Russia will rely on this old Soviet model or on one
based upon cooperation and mutual advantage. For Russia's
immediate neighbors, the stakes are particularly high. And
the Baltic countries are a case in point.

Indeed, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are among the most
interested parties in the intense speculation over how
Putin's ideological orientation and governing style will
evolve once he obtains an electoral mandate. The Baltic
countries want to anchor themselves in the West and intend to
fulfill this goal by joining key Western institutions, namely
the EU and NATO. Over the past several years, Russia's stance
toward the Baltics has been demonstrably uncooperative on a
range of matters, including sensitive border disputes as well
as citizenship and language issues. Whether or not Putin
believes there is a long-term benefit for Russia through
cooperation with its three Baltic neighbors will determine if
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia realize their ambitions to
join Western clubs according to their own timetable, rather
than one controlled by Moscow.

In the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's
collapse, there was a period of cooperation, at times even
characterized as a "partnership," between Russia and the
West. But since the successes of communist and nationalist
forces in the 1993 and 1995 parliamentary elections, Russia
has moved away from such cooperation.

In fact, the nature of Russia's obstructionism over the
past several years can be seen to fall into two categories:
one active, the other passive. Active obstructionism was born
of the failure of Western-style reforms to take root and the
steady erosion of Russian living standards. Nationalists and
Communists took advantage of a sour popular mood to slow down
cooperation with the West on a number of fronts. While NATO's
action in Kosova clearly annoyed Russia, Moscow's
increasingly uncooperative posture predated the NATO
campaign.

But perhaps more troubling is the variant of Russian
obstructionism that is passive in nature, resulting
principally from political gridlock and administrative
incompetence. Severely drained by Russia's financial
collapse, institutional exhaustion and corruption, Boris
Yeltsin's administration was catatonic in its final years.
Yeltsin himself was the clearest emblem of the overall
moribund state. During this period, diplomats from
neighboring countries routinely complained that they were
unable to obtain decisions from Moscow or often simply could
not locate an appropriate official in Moscow to answer their
calls.

Russia's negative behavior manifested itself in other
ways, including the conduct of military exercises with such
provocative names as "Operation Comeback" on its borders with
the Baltic countries or threatening to apply sanctions or
otherwise isolate countries with which it disagreed. Russia
has recognized that its poor relations with the Baltic States
may be used as a tool to keep the Baltics from advancing
toward western institutions.

Unless insufficient turnout somehow complicates matters
by requiring further voting rounds, Putin's victory on 26
March seems assured. Much of his popularity is derived from
the substantial support he enjoys as a result of the war in
Chechnya and what is best described as the remilitarization
of Russia. For the time being at least, it appears the
campaign in Chechnya has served Putin's purpose, allowing him
to garner considerable domestic political support, while
simultaneously diverting attention from Russia's serious
economic and social ills.

It remains to be seen whether the campaign in Chechnya
will restore Russia's sense of prestige in the longer term.
Should the campaign ultimately fail, Russia would find itself
enfeebled to an even greater degree. Success achieved on the
basis of abject brutality is similarly no source of comfort.
Despite claims of Putin's ostensible administrative prowess,
rigorous discipline, and high energy levels, he may not be
capable of modernizing Russia quickly enough to keep pace
with the rest of the world. And at the same time, Russia may
not be willing simply to watch its immediate neighbors in the
Baltics advance and join the former Soviet satellites in
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE on the road to the West.
Furthermore, Putin's stated intention of restoring Russia's
strength and national prestige may not be consistent with
integration into the community of nations and cooperation
with Russia's neighbors.

Thus, if Moscow is unable to formulate a cooperative
policy of its own--or otherwise come to terms with the fact
that the Baltics and other states formerly under Moscow's
domination will eventually join the West--Putin's Russia may
end up playing the only role it believes it can, namely that
of spoiler.
The author is a New York-based analyst specializing in
Eastern European affairs (intrel@aol.com)