Doblin: Cory Booker should wait for a 2014 run

WHOEVER CHALLENGES Chris Christie in 2013 will be a Democratic version of Republican state Sen. Joe Kyrillos: a decent, smart individual with little hope of actually winning the race he or she is in. Newark Mayor Cory Booker is not that man.

Booker is smart, decent and charismatic and has the personal character to run into a burning building to save a neighbor. He's the embodiment of a State Farm Insurance commercial. He does not run expecting to lose.

While Christie has yet to officially announce that he is running for reelection, it is assumed he will. The governor enjoys his job and, after superstorm Sandy, has earned a place in the hearts of even his more vocal critics. Christie may grow impatient with people who ask him questions he does not like, but when the rubber meets the road — or, as we have seen of late, when the Atlantic Ocean meets the Shore — there is no public official anyone would rather have in his corner.

Much can change, but it is unlikely Christie will have a hard time convincing voters he should have another four years. The question then is not whether Booker will run for governor, but rather why he should run for governor.

Booker has not had an easy time in Newark. He faced an entrenched political structure, the legacy of former Mayor Sharpe James. Newark's moniker as Brick City is an apt description of a city comprising layers upon layers of municipal bureaucracy.

As mayor, Booker removed some of those bricks, but there are still walls aplenty. His triumphs are in the big things — for example, bringing private monies into Newark for public education. But would-be governors don't win hearts and minds for the big things. It's the small, quality-of-life things that get mayors — even charismatic ones — elected governor.

I am not sure Booker has achieved enough of those kinds of things. I don't think any mayor of Newark could in two or even three terms. Newark is a tough city to fix, and it has not been fixed as of yet. Booker will have to deal with those criticisms if he runs for governor. I ask: Why struggle to win a job that does not suit you when you could excel and easily win one that does? A seat in the U.S. Senate.

State Democrats right now are like Mama Rose in the musical "Gypsy." They want to push somebody with talent onstage. They care less about whether the person they are pushing wants to be there or should be there. No question about it, Cory Booker is the Democratic star of New Jersey. But governor of New Jersey is the wrong gig. He would be better waiting another year and make a run for the U.S. Senate, a place in need of men and women with big ideas and strong characters. Booker also could play a role in the Obama administration, although, like with Christie, I don't know if he wants to play second violin.

Christie remains a problem for Booker because the two men have forged a solid working relationship. I do not see how Booker, who has joined often and effectively with Christie, can become his political rival in 2013.

Pundits have remarked that Christie and President Obama were some kind of magical odd couple: conservative and liberal, side by side, in the wake of superstorm Sandy. Christie and Booker have been such a couple since Day One. Christie's first official visit after winning office was to go to his native Newark.

Cory Booker doesn't need to raise his statewide profile by running in a race he won't win, as did Kyrillos in his challenge to U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, and as would many of the lesser-known Democratic gubernatorial wannabes. Whoever runs against Christie in 2013 really wants to win in 2017.

There's a long list of Democrats fitting that ticket whom most folks have never heard of. Assemblyman Lou Greenwald is hardly a household word. These Democrats need 2013 to get their names noticed beyond their local districts.

The party machinery could pressure Booker to make a run in 2013, and all politicians are capable of poor short-term decisions. Cory Booker may not be the best mayor in the United States, but he is nobody's fool. He is unlikely to waste time and energy running for something he has little chance of winning and probably does not want. The secret to Chris Christie's success as governor is quite simple: He wanted the job. He loves the job.

As dog-tired as the governor looked when he traveled the state these past two weeks, Christie also always looked like a man who was doing exactly what he wanted to do.

You have to run with fire, not literally through it. When it comes to a gubernatorial run in 2013, I don't see Cory Booker as that guy.

Alfred P. Doblin is the editorial page editor of The Record. Contact him at doblin@northjersey.com. Follow AlfredPDoblin on Twitter.