Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 29, 2012):

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Once again, if your favorite show is terribly rated, its lucky to have it on N-B-C!

NBC's ratings devastation has reached the point that the three headlined shows are likely to be renewed, even though they have averaged less than a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating in their new episodes since January 1. The cancellation bear can't believe it.

To put that in perspective, How To Be A Gentleman was pulled from the CBS schedule last Fall after two episodes that averaged a 2.6 rating, which is better than all NBC scripted shows have done since January 1 (and better than all but The Office last Fall).

This is the last "regular" NBC Renew/Cancel Index post of the 2011-12 season. Next week Robert and I combine for our annual "Oddsmakers" final predictions for the season.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

- certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Thought BFF was just canceled?
Also, doesn’t Whitney C’s new talk show coming on the E! channel maybe do away with her sitcom returning?

Bern

Guys, I think NBC will order so many sitcoms at upfronts (a lot of stuff is getting very good buzz) that both Whitney and Up All Night may be dead. (also, WC’s new talk show isn’t a good sign for renewal).

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“Thought BFF was just canceled?”

Indeed. That escaped my updating process. Now fixed.

“Also, doesn’t Whitney C’s new talk show coming on the E! channel maybe do away with her sitcom returning?”

Not necessarily.

MattM

Whitney’s a workhorse, much like Chelsea Handler, she’ll find a way to do both.

So Bill, do you think Community and 30 Rock will get full seasons or 13 episodes, I’m leaning toward the latter since I really don’t think NBC wants to renew either but they’ve kind of been pigeon-holed by the low ratings of their other comedies.

Bunny

IMO NBC needs smart young-skewing multi-cam comedies..
I wonder if Seinfeld would have been successful if it didn’t have a laugh-track

rob60990

I wasn’t very optimistic at Parenthood’s chances at renewal but with Smash free falling, it will definitely come back. I wonder what NBC will do with Smash. It can’t even do decent with the best lead-in NBC can give to it. How can it possibly do well anywhere else?

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“So Bill, do you think Community and 30 Rock will get full seasons or 13 episodes,”

I have no basis to predict that, so I don’t bother.

“I wasn’t very optimistic at Parenthood’s chances”

Huh? Networks do not cancel shows at their average ratings level except in extraordinary circumstances.

MattM

@rob60990

Yeah, I really can’t see Smash anywhere but after The Voice. I think anywhere else it would completely tank. Might as well keep it on Music Monday.

Bern

Also, what do you think of NBC’s decision to launch Go On and Grimm during the Olympics? Apparently NBC wanted a head start on the very similar ‘Rebounding’ which is getting good buzz at Fox.

Jack

3rd season for Harry’s Law!!!

chrisss

Well if Whitney is renewed, NBC, Universal Television and E! are all under the NBCUniversal umbrella, so they could make the schedules work.

Scott M

@Matt M

Community needs another full season to get to 88 episodes (it might be a couple more than that, not totally sure). It will definitely get a full season.

Bob

@Jack. I agree! I am in the all important demo…Bring back Harry’s Law for a third season. Just find a good spot for it.

chrisss

@ Scott M

Community only needs 17 episodes to get to 88.

J.G.

For the millionth time, Whitney is not coming back. Period. Full stop.

Rebecca

Cool, so Community could maybe get a 20 episode season and that would work. It’ll already be in syndication on Comedy Central.

J.G.

@Bern

It seems like NBC is gonna launch the fall schedule in two tiers: post-Olympics (mid-August) and sometime later in the fall (perhaps post-election in November?)

SoundableObject

At the current ratings, with a syndication deal in place, Community is completely safe.

Delighted to see 30 Rock at near network average ratings.

>Huh? Networks do not cancel shows at their average ratings level except in >extraordinary circumstances.

*sigh* I still miss My Name is Earl. It was a little above average when cancelled. But at least the extraordinary circumstance turned out to work well for NBC. The Jay Leno Show was a massive success, right?

tvfreak

@Bern: I kinda hope The New Normal doesn’t get picked up, just because if it is Justin Bartha might be too busy to make the already-too-much-delayed National Treasure 3!

Myself, I’m just dying for NBC to pick up Beautiful People, Revolution, and 1600 Penn.

tvfreak

Game time!

COMMUNITY – 12
30 ROCK – 8

Since this thread’s game has already progressed to the Winners’ Circle, voting is conducted in +1 and -1 until an Ultimate Winner is declared.

Also, if I don’t recognize you as a regular user I will have to disqualify your vote unless you swear on your grave not to cheat (or if @Julia can verify that you don’t use sock puppets to post, but that’s only done on her own time), and if you answer a trivia question related to that network.