7 Things to Watch for in Tonight's GOP Debate

Tonight, at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire, all of the major GOP candidates (except Jon Huntsman) will gather for a debate. Since several top-tier candidates skipped the last one, this is considered the informal kickoff to the 2012 race. I'll have a post-debate report later on tonight. In the meantime, here's a tip sheet on what to look for:Will Romney Look Like a Frontrunner?
Polls show Mitt Romney ahead in every early primary and caucus state--Iowa, New
Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. He's the clear frontrunner, and seems
more on-message than the rest of the field. Will he also stand out in the
debate? He'd better, because there's only one direction to go if he doesn't.
Health Care or the Economy? Mitt Romney
has wisely made the economy the centerpiece of his campaign. That's mostly what
his announcement speech was about, and even if he doesn't always hit the right
notes, it's the area he's best suited to run on and the issue of greatest
concern to voters. But his fellow candidates won't do him any favors--they'd
like to talk about health care, his great weakness. Over the last week, several
have attacked Romney, most prominently Tim Pawlenty, who assailed the new
health care law as "ObamneyCare." If the debate's focus is health care, Romney
loses.

Can Cain Keep it Going? A Fox News
focus group deemed Herman Cain the big winner in the last Republican debate, in
South Carolina, and many other folks did, too. His performance brought a wave
of interest in the Hermanator Experience, and Cain has enjoyed more momentum
than anyone else since then. A recent Iowa poll had him tied for second place.
But that debate didn't include several of the big names participating tonight.
Now that he's drawing more than single digits in the polls, Cain will also draw
some attacks. If he stands out again, he'll be an interesting guy to watch.

Bachmann Overdrive? Michele Bachmann is
inching ever closer to a presidential run. She's hired Ed Rollins, former
campaign manager for Ronald Reagan (and many others), and showed her
fundraising prowess. A lot of people think she's poised to do well in Iowa,
where she was born, and where her staunch social conservatism and Tea Party
identity could appeal to caucus-goers. But how will she perform on stage?
Bachmann's grasp of the facts can be a little shaky (U.S. history isn't her
forte). On the other hand, she's the only woman participating, she's got a
peppy charisma, and she could definitely stand out.

Will Newt Sink Like the Titanic?
Nobody enters this debate in worst shape than Newt Gingrich. In fact, nobody's ever entered a debate in worse shape than Newt Gingrich*. Most of his staff quit on him last week, after his Tiffany's episode and his bizarre Greek cruise. If Newt is going to turn things around, he'd better make a big
impression--because his ground game isn't going to win it for him.

Any Love for the Libertarian? Without
Gary Johnson in the debate, Ron Paul is the lone libertarian. Paul is a
presidential stalwart and he has more endorsements and early money than in the
past. But he hasn't yet made much of an impression in this race, which is odd
because so much is going his way. Last cycle, it was a debate exchange with
Rudy Giuliani on foreign policy than thrust Paul into the headlines. With
Paul's unique views, that's always a possibility.

Will the Ghost of Palin or Weiner Appear?
The two biggest stories in politics these last couple weeks have been Sarah
Palin's presidential flirtations and Anthony Weiner's creepy Twitter
flirtations. Will either intrude on tonight's debate? You'd have to think they
won't. But on the other hand, any candidate who takes a shot at Palin or Weiner
is a candidate guaranteed to get plenty of press attention.