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My gut tells me that Hibbert gets signed for $10 -$12M per year to start and increasing from there on a long term deal. Quality Centers are hard to come by and the team would have to replace him if they don't sign him.

My ever shrinking gut also says that Hill gets signed to a long term deal. The team gave up a valuable pick to get him and they knew his contract status at the time and they knew he would have a price tag after the season was over. They didn't give up that pick to rent the guy out for one season.

I am also inclinded to think that West stays. And might get an extension. Like Hibbert, he is almost irreplaceable.

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After those three, I could see any kind of scenario playing out. The team could return almost intact or could have major changes in the offing.

George might stay, although I'm on the fence with him. The team may get an offer they can't refuse.

Same with Granger.

Barbosa is going to cost. Will the team fork over yet another big contract to go with the others?

Has Hansbrough proven he is worth an extension or is he prime trade bait? Same for Collison.

Vogel loves Amundson. Is that enough or will he price himself out of here?

Will Jones exercise his option. He would be silly not to IMO. I don't think he would do much better on the FA market this year. If so, he is trade bait with an expiring contract.

Price and Fresenko are probably done here. Neither did much of anything this year.

Stepheson and Pendergraph seem to be pet projects of Bird. And they are cheap. Maybe they stay, but who really cares?

________________________________

Bird is not known for making big deals or for a lot of off season moves. I think that the starting five returns and I believe that there will be at least a significant change to one or two rotation players. And an addition via Free Agency as well as a draft pick.

Granger - stays/stays - not going any where
West - stays/stays - staying for at least the contract
Barbosa - goes/goes - was worthless mostly in the playoffs, and just not important enough to bring back
Jones - stays/stays - good teammate, always ready, will take option
Hibbert - stays/stays - irreplaceable
George - stays/stays - won't go any where
Amundson - stays/stays - team favorite, should be cheap
Hansbrough - stays/goes - I don't think we'll give up on him, but I kind of think we should although I still love him and wouldn't mind one more chance.
Hill - stays/stays - Like Hill, and hopefully we can upgrade the PG spot, making Hill more valuable as a backup than DC
Collison - goes/goes - I just think he wants to start, and we will upgrade the PG
Price - goes/goes - Will look for more time, I like him, but he would be better off elsewhere likely
Stephenson - stays/stays - Still like the potential, and I think he could use some further maturation
Pendergraph - stays/stays - I am intrigued by Jeff, and I think the staff is too. Should be cheap.
Fesenko - stays/stays - really want Fes to get a shot at the backup spot. would be huge (literally) to have to 7ft'ers to throw at people, and he's good on D

I'll tell ya. I'm pretty lost this offseason. I suspect it likely that the starting five returns. But anything could happen! Crap, the team might get a S & T offer for Hibbert that they can't turn down. They might get an offer for anyone they can't turn down. Or they could just sign everyone that needs to be signed and return the team as is.

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

I'll tell ya. I'm pretty lost this offseason. I suspect it likely that the starting five returns. But anything could happen! Crap, the team might get a S & T offer for Hibbert that they can't turn down. They might get an offer for anyone they can't turn down. Or they could just sign everyone that needs to be signed and return the team as is.

It's going to be an interesting offseason.

I think during the offseason it will be interesting, because of the speculation, but in reality little will happen.

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Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

Pretty much agree with Purdue's list except thatI believe Hansbrough,as well as Collison, will be gone. I believe they will be sacrificed to get a new starting PG or as a means of moving up in the draft.

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

Pretty much agree with Purdue's list except thatI believe Hansbrough,as well as Collison, will be gone. I believe they will be sacrificed to get a new starting PG or as a means of moving up in the draft.

I actually agree with you on DC, and I was really on the fence with Tyler. I think he could be packaged, but am leaning towards them wanting to keep him.

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

Barbosa hurt his chances in the playoffs of getting a nice offer from the Pacers. I wish Dahntay would've gotten more of Barbosa's playoff minutes. Barbosa's play ultimately didn't equate to his minutes.

Tyler should be relegated to the trading block, and if a deal can't be done he should be buried on the bench until an opportunity presents itself via injury or the person in front of him not exactly being a world beater.... and then he can either show some growth or be shown the door if he even gets that 2nd chance. If the player in front of him does OK then I'm fine with Tyler not seeing the floor. He hurt the team more than he helped this season.

Granger should be causing a lot of tough discussion in the halls of Pacerland. I was hoping we'd hear about some off season rehab or surgery for an injury he was playing thru. If there's no direct excuse for his slide in play then there should be worries about where and when the slide will stop. It's not just this season really. We also don't need Paul George picking up bad habits from being around Granger and his poor decision making. We don't need George turning into a 3 point chucker with little regard for game situations. So either Granger's position in the core needs to change from ink to pencil or we need to consider whether George could net us a player to supplant Granger as our 'best player' (which Granger was several times NOT our best player... too many times for a 'best player' IMHO) and Granger take a secondary role. So something needs to be done there. I'm not sure it's practical to bring someone in somehow and move George to the 2nd unit but I suppose that could be talked about. I don't know how Granger would take a demotion if we traded George for someone to supplant DG's role. Granger doesn't seem like a bad person, or even bad teammate... I just don't think he's living up to his role, and worse we need more out of a player in his role than we're getting. That's why there needs to be some tough discussions in Pacerland about the Granger situation. In fact, that's what it is... "a situation".... He's peaked early and fallen short of where he was expected to get. And he's on a slide so it's not just him hitting a ceiling.

George.... It's always possible we could groom George to be the player we wanted Danny to be. But I haven't seen anything to tell me he could ever get there... let alone with Granger still on the team. So I really think the discussion about these two will dominate in the offices of Pacerland for a while. I don't necessarily agree that Granger holds George back because George should be playing SF (which I think he could). I think Granger holds George back in Granger already being higher in the pecking order even though the two are rather redundant, plus Granger has some bad habits as our 'best player' that don't need to rub off on George.

Hibbert, after a short fall off the radar, he climbed back on the horse and he will get paid. Max... I dunno... I think 'max' gets tossed around too much in these discussions. I think 'max' needs to be reserved for true superstars. If your name is not automatic for the all star game each year then you're not a 'max' player in my book. But the NBA market may say otherwise.

I'm not sure about George Hill.... Part of me wonders if he could replace Granger in the starting lineup and let George slide to SF. Then we could trade Granger for the best deal available. But I'm not sure the Pacers and George can come to terms on money. I just don't have the warm fuzzies about him not jumping ship considering his status here is fluid at best. Starting PG? 2nd string PG? 2nd string SG? Starter? Closer?

I think Collison will be back unless he can be part of a larger trade.

Jones will be back.

Amundson... maybe...

Price... doubtful

West... of course....

Pendergraph... Fez... No idea... I'd assume at least 1 will be gone but it wouldn't surprise me if both are gone or both are back.

Lance.... He'll be back and probably get an expanded role if summer basketball goes well for him. Whether he'll maintain that expanded role will depend on how well he plays.

Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

Granger - stays for less after contract expires which helps us to afford PG long term
West - stays for less per year but gets 4 year deal
Barbosa - gone, he was always just a rental
Jones - opts in but gone after being traded for a 2cd. round pick to free up more cap space
Hibbert - stays
George - stays
Amundson - gone
Hansborough - gone in trade
Hill - stays but for less then projected
Collison - gone in trade
Price - gone
Stephenson - gone
Pendergraph - gone
Fesenko - stays as cheap insurance policy

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

I don't think West will sign for less After this year, he will be in demand by many teams. I also do not think Hill will sign for less than projected. Some team will make the Pacers pay more than they want to pay but I still think he stays... Hansbrough will stay unless the Pacers make a deal for a PF.......

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

I don't think West will sign for less After this year, he will be in demand by many teams. I also do not think Hill will sign for less than projected. Some team will make the Pacers pay more than they want to pay but I still think he stays... Hansbrough will stay unless the Pacers make a deal for a PF.......

West will be 33 years old when his contract expires. I don't think he'll net more then 4/40 with his all star days behind him. He won't be taking a huge cut either, maybe something like 4/36 or 4/38. It's hard to project though, if he does return to all star form this season he'll be in higher demand.
Last year the market value for good combo guards was set at about 5 mil. I think the market will be tighter this year with the new LT penalty kicking in the following season. I think Hill will get something around MLE money. It would take a team under the cap to offer more. What teams is going to offer Hill 7 mil?
Bird has shown that he won't overpay so it won't be the Pacers.

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

My :2cents:

Granger - Think he stays, and kinda hope he does, but would love to find an undeniable trade for him that would land us a great player. Doubt it, though. Not after all he's been through with the team. You never know.
West - Stays. Undeniable here. There's two reasons Bird got ExOTY, and West is one of them. His leadership, mid-range jumper, and cross-court football passes brought so much to this team this year. Don't see any reason to send him packing before his contract is up.
Barbosa - The only noticeable difference, which I cared about, was beating Miami, for the only time, in the fourth game of the season. This occurred shortly after acquiring Leandro. But I think his spot can be filled with a better player, who won't demand as much money to be the role player.
Jones - If he picks up his option, I think we should look to trade him. Sorry, Dahntay, but there is a team out there who will desire your defensive presence and recently-improved corner three. I'd rather have whoever we can trade you for, since Paul George should be getting most of the backup SF minutes anyway.
Hibbert - Listen, I don't think Hibbert is going to leave Indiana any time soon, with an entire passionate fan group built for him, and a team somewhat built around him (when we actually play well, and through him offensively). Hibbert stays as long as we can supply him with the love he feels he deserves. Too personal? I think Roy's personal enough for this to matter to him.
George - I think we see Granger leave before we see Paul George leave. His statistical and obvious performance development just since his rookie year have been phenomenal. His defense is top-notch for a sophomore. I think we pick up his option, and then drop some cash on him after this year; most likely after he proves he's worth it in 2012-13.
Amundson - I'd like to see him stay. He's exactly what I'd like Hansbrough to be, with a knack for finishing at the rim (not just 'getting there' and getting fouled), though they both have similar ruggedness to their techniques. Not sure if he re-signs, but if he demands more than $8m/2yrs for the time being, I think we should look elsewhere for our semi-athletic back-up power forward/center.
Hansbrough - I hope Hansbrough gets traded out of here. He's done what he could, but I think this goes to show that being a "proven winner" in college doesn't directly translate to the NBA. That's why I hate when scouts/bloggers/forumers list that as a strength, because it implies nothing about them as a player, which is how they're being evaluated. Get Hans outta here, packed with DC, and get something that will benefit us (pick, cash, PG).
Hill - As WLYB? stated, I highly doubt Bird went into the signing of Hill (the second reason he got ExOTY) with a one-year rental in mind. Hill's name is important to the Pacers, and it's not like he's a bad player. Pending an upgrade at the point guard position, I think Hill moves back to backing-up the guard rotation, unless Paul George begins starting at the 3, in which case Hill would start at the 2.
Collison - Would like to see him packaged with Hansbrough and sent elsewhere. Preferably to Charlotte, in exchange for a valuable asset. However, if we upgrade the point guard spot (which we absolutely should), then that leaves Collison to be sent elsewhere without many conqw
Price - Get him out. His whole offensive everything is detrimental to the team, and would be better gone. No reason to pick him up if the backup PG spot is going to be upgraded to Hill (with the starting PG spot being the most upgraded spot).
Stephenson - Okay, well... Stephenson has been as productive and useful as Price and Pendergraph, to be honest. But he does have some incredible potential, and I truly think that he can flourish into a great player here, with a better attitude than if he went back to NY/Brooklyn. Also, I saw him at Moe's Steakhouse after a home game a couple months ago, and literally almost bumped into him at the Drake concert in Noblesville on Friday. So I must say that I have kind of a starstruck obsession with him now. Nonetheless, I would like to see him continue to grow with the Pacers.
Pendergraph - I also wonder if JP will be worth keeping. He's definitely an athletic 4/5, but the question of whether he could be THE athletic 4/5 to backup West and Hibbert successfully and productively has yet to be seen. Besides Lance, I think Jeff will benefit most from an offseason with the team, summer league, and preseason games. I really think more time playing with the regular squad could work wonders. OR he could end up gone as soon as someone shows interest in him. This one's got me stumped.
Fesenko - As much as I want Fes to return to the Pacers, I think he might end up going. He didn't do much for us this season, playing a total of 17 minutes in 3 games. I think whatever player is picked up this offseason (be it through draft, FA, or trade), he will be able to replace Fes. However, I enjoy his comedic nature, and I wonder if the attitude difference he makes on the team is significant. Regardless, if he's not playing well for us, we're wasting money and roster space.

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

Granger - I don't see him leaving, unless it's part of a major, major trade that really shakes up the team. Look, I realize the frustrations with him, but really for the production he's giving he has a fair salary. Most criticisms I read about him are prefaced with "for the best player on your team, he should be better at x and shouldn't be doing y." The solution to that might be to **add a better player than him to the roster**, rather than take it out on DG. I suppose if we moved DG to make way for a stud point guard like Dwill that Paul could slide to the 3 and Hill to the 2, but given Larry's reputation of loyalty and the fact that Granger is now one of your veteran leaders, I just don't see him going anywhere.

West - He stays for sure. I assume the Pacers will offer him an extension during the season, whether he signs it nor not, who knows.

Barbosa - He laid an egg during the playoffs. He will probably be a bit pricey for his role. Probably 50/50 between staying or leaving, depending on what other moves we make.

Jones - He'll exercise his option and stay another year. Small chance we package him in a trade but I doubt it, he is a great player to have coming off the bench a few min a game and he's pretty cheap.

Hibbert - We pay what we have to pay. 5 years, hopefully a little under the max. Say $12-13 mil / year.

George - He's not going anywhere. Still a ton of upside. Loved seeing his lock-down defense in the playoffs but MAN when is he going to stop always shooting that cute layup and dunk the freaking ball? The dunk should be his default shot when he drives to the basket IMO as it is really really tough to defend. I still hope he will bring the offensive aggression next year but I also wanted to see it in the playoffs and it never really happened - I'm starting to get nervous. I guess at worst he could be a Bruce Bowen / Derrick McKey type player but I'm still hoping for more than that.

Amundson - I like Lou but I'm not as convinced as others that he'll stay. I'd say greater than 50 percent chance he stays but it will have to be at the right price. He brings great energy and the fans love to say "Louuuu" but he IS undersized and whenever he and Hans were in at the same time in the playoffs we seemed to always let our opponents go on a big runs. I could go either way here.

Hansbrough - I hope and think we trade him. I like his hustle but the hustle is meaningless unless it results in something - a made basket, a rebound, free throws, a steal, a block, etc. Otherwise it's just a bunch of flailing around. Like others have said I could see him packaged with DC for a backup big or some other asset.

Hill - I agree with Bball, you don't give up what we did for him and then just let him walk. He's been really productive, he's local, the fans like him, the team likes him, and his swing-guard status gives us a lot of lineup flexibility. I hope he is our 6th man next year, backing up Nash at the point .

Collison - I like DC but assuming we keep Hill and pursue an upgrade at the point there just isn't room for him on the roster. He wants to start in this league and probably deserves to. I'd love to have him back in a backup role but I doubt he's here next season.

Price - Meh, he's our 3rd string point, I think we could do better but it's not going to be a huge difference maker either way. We might trade him but then we'd have to replace him anyway, with another player who may or may not be better. So like I said, meh

Stephenson - I kind of hope we unload Lance, I just don't see enough improvement in his play or attitude, and the stupid choke thing was a distraction in the Heat series. I don't dislike the guy but I don't see whatever Larry is seeing in him. He will stay though, he's cheap and is a Larry project.

Pendergraph - A Larry project. Didn't see much due to injury, might as well keep him and see what he can do next year. He is not our answer at backup C next year though.

Fesenko - Man I hope we keep this guy, I was really hoping he would get a few rotation minutes this season just to see what he can do. He looked like he might actually have a couple post moves and of course he could be valuable on defense against the Dwight Howards and ANdrew Bynumns of the league (a few extra fouls at least). But if Vogel isn't going to play him at all then he deserves a chance elsewhere. I think we keep him but barely. He could totally be gone too.

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

Granger - stays/stays - not going any where
West - stays/stays - staying for at least the contract
Barbosa - goes/goes - was worthless mostly in the playoffs, and just not important enough to bring back
Jones - stays/stays - good teammate, always ready, will take option
Hibbert - stays/stays - irreplaceable
George - stays/stays - won't go any where
Amundson - stays/stays - team favorite, should be cheap
Hansbrough - stays/goes - I don't think we'll give up on him, but I kind of think we should although I still love him and wouldn't mind one more chance.
Hill - stays/stays - Like Hill, and hopefully we can upgrade the PG spot, making Hill more valuable as a backup than DC
Collison - goes/goes - I just think he wants to start, and we will upgrade the PG
Price - goes/goes - Will look for more time, I like him, but he would be better off elsewhere likely
Stephenson - stays/stays - Still like the potential, and I think he could use some further maturation
Pendergraph - stays/stays - I am intrigued by Jeff, and I think the staff is too. Should be cheap.
Fesenko - stays/stays - really want Fes to get a shot at the backup spot. would be huge (literally) to have to 7ft'ers to throw at people, and he's good on D

Those are my quick thoughts.

What I THINK might happen, I have already said. What I WANT to see happen is this:

Granger - Stay. He is a perfect fit for this team
West - STay, with extension.
Barbosa - Go. Too pricey, most likely.
Jones - Stay. Good bench presence.
Hibbert - Stay.
George - Stay.
Amundson - Stay. At reasonable contract.
Hansborough - Go via trade. I think he is going to want more than he is worth down the road. Dump him now.

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

As long as Bird is in charge, the Pacers are not going to trade Hansbrough. They will also keep Stephenson and judging by Bird's post season press conference, they will keep Pendergraph.

Here's the way I see it:

Granger-stays. I heard a someone say, and I don't remember who it was or where it was but he was right on. He said that Granger is not a go-to guy but he is a damn good palyer on a damn good team.

Barbosa-gone. He is too small. The Pacers need to find a wing that can socre off the bench with some size. A SF first that can also play some SG.

West-stays. Will he resign next summer or will the Pacers want him? I don't know but he will be the starting PF for the 2012-13 season.

Jones-stays. He would be stupid not to exercise his option. He's a good back up that is always ready when called upon.

Hibbert-stays. The Pacers will match any offer plus Hibbert likes it here.

George-stays. He has a ton of potential and will only get better.

Amundson-gone. I like Lou, the fans like Lou, Vogel likes Lou and Bird probably likes Lou. The problem is that he is too small to be the back up Center and the Pacers are set at PF with West and Hansbrough. There is no room for him so I think he will be gone.

Hansbrough-stays. As long as Bird is in charge, he will not trade Tyler. If Tyler is wise enough to realize that his role in the NBA will be as a back up PF that will play 18-24 mpg and bring energy off the bench, he will most likely remain a Pacer for many years. If he thinks he can start, the Pacers will probably let him go next summer.

Hill-stays. Bird gave up a first round draft choice for him. I don't think he would have done that to "rent" him for a year. Bird also said when he got him that he had his eye on Hill for a while and he was a "hellava player."

Collison-gone. This could go either way. Collison is going to want starters minutes, and rightfully so, however he will be relegated to the Pacers bench if they resign Hill. Collison will bolt the first chance he gets to find starters minutes so the Pacers wll probably trade him either this summer or by the trade deadline.

Price-gone. Price is a good 3rd string PG, however, he probably wants more playing time. He will be looking to be a 2nd string PG and there will probably be some team to sign him and give him a shot at 2nd string.

Stephenson-stays. He is a Bird project and showed some improvement over last year. The Pacers will hang on to him for another year.

Pendregraph-stays. Bird mentioned him in his press conference and spoke highly of him. He will be cheap so the Pacers will keep him another year.

Fesenko-gone. This could go either way but I think the Pacers pick up another big man instead of Fesenko. It is my understanding that Fesenko has a questionable work ethic.

Re: Who Stays? Who Goes? 2012-2013.

Stephenson is one of Bird's projects and based on his season ending press conference, Pendergraph seems to be safe as well.

Granger is not the go-to man, but he is an very good player on a very good team. The Pacers will not get rid of him unless someone makes an offer that we can't refuse, and I dooubt that will happen.

Hibbert and Hill will both be back.

Amundson will be gone simply because there is no room for him. He is too small to be the back up Center and West/Hansbrough have the PF spot covered.

Collison will be traded. He wants starters minutes, and rightfully so, but if Hill gets resigned he will be relegated to the bench. He will bolt the first opportunity he has so the Pacers will trade him and get something for him.