SARAH FERGUSON, PRESENTER: The diplomatic conflict between Russia, Ukraine and its allies will come to a head this weekend when the pro-Russia region of Crimea votes in a crucial referendum to decide its fate. It could stay a part of Ukraine, but the more likely scenario is that it will officially join Russia.

In Moscow, Vladimir Putin is pulling out all the stops, staging a mass propaganda effort. But as Norman Hermant reports, Crimea might only be the first of other pro-Russian Ukrainian areas that Russia tries to take hold of.

(Sound of Olympic Opening Ceremony)

NORMAN HERMANT: It seems hard to believe now, but just two and a half weeks ago Vladimir Putin was basking in the glow of his $50 billion Olympic triumph. Defying predictions, Russia hosted a well organised and safe Games and the world took note.

THOMAS BACH, INTERNATIONAL OLYMPIC COMMITTEE PRESIDENT: Through you, everybody, with an open mind, could see the face of a new Russia.

NORMAN HERMANT: But within days an image reset years in the making was in tatters. The new face of Russia had a very familiar and old look straight out of the Cold War.

Out of the chaos of Kiev's February revolution, the Kremlin saw a vacuum in Crimea and pounced.

In Moscow, the political elite is firmly on Putin's side. In the de facto occupation of Crimea they see Russia as a reluctant participant, acting only because there is no other choice.

SERGEY MARKOV, FORMER KREMLIN ADVISER: Russia prefer Crimea to be part of the democratic Ukraine, but will have not any other chance to protect life of the Crimean people except taking them to the Russian Federation, Russia will have to do it.

NORMAN HERMANT: For Russia's president, it's a case of the right opportunity at the worst possible time. Crimea is vitally important to the Kremlin, home of Russia's Black Sea naval fleet with a majority ethnic Russian population. Vladimir Putin's moves there reflect his top form policy priority; stopping Ukraine from slipping away.

MARIA LIPMAN, CARNEGIE MOSCOW CENTRE: He sees the West as a sort of threat for Russia. He of course sees the prospect of Ukraine is drifting in their direction and before too long Ukraine becomes a NATO member and NATO, that is seen as the ultimate enemy of Russia just as it was in the Soviet Union, will come closer to the Russian borders. This is his concern and it has been ever since he came to power.

NORMAN HERMANT: To build its case in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin has been bombarding the airwaves with its own peculiar take on events. News bulletins are filled with images of ethnic Russians under attack and claims the new Government in Kiev is dominated by neo Nazis.

ALEXEI SIMONOV, PRESIDENT, GLASNOT DEFENCE FOUNDATION: Propaganda instead of information, it is absolutely returned us to Soviet times.

NORMAN HERMANT: Alexei Siminov a writer who heads the Glasnot Defence Foundation has seen this before.

ALEXEI SIMONOV: We have very bad coverage of the events in the Ukraine and it is, it has practically nothing to do with information. I mean especially television.

(Sound of Russian news program)

NORMAN HERMANT: This is the face of the on air propaganda offensive; Dmitry Kiselev. From his pulpit on national television he serves up a steady diet of Russians in peril, in Ukraine and especially in Crimea.

ALEXEI SIMONOV: Now it is very difficult for people to really understand where truth is. This is a problem.

NORMAN HERMANT: With its massive broadcast campaign perhaps it's not a surprise a solid majority of Russians and local journalists are lining up loyally behind the Kremlin. There are some willing to speak out. They all know there will be a price to pay.

This professor at the prestigious government run Institute of International Relations found that out when he published a dissenting article in the respected Vedomosti newspaper.

ANDREI ZUBOV, RUSSIAN HISTORIAN: The policy of our government, of the administration, of Mr Putin is the policy which looks like a policy of Nazi Germany in the end of '30s, 1930s.

NORMAN HERMANT: Comparing Vladimir Putin's occupation of Crimea with Adolf Hitler and Austria in 1938 did not go down well. Then Germany also moved to annex foreign lands with large populations of ethnic Germans.

At first Andre Zubov was told to resign, but a backlash forced the university to ease off for now. The article clearly touched a nerve.

ANDREI ZUBOV: I was surprised how many people read it and recommended it in Internet, tens of thousands.

NORMAN HERMANT: But to the Kremlin, opposition to its moves in Ukraine is just a nuisance. The real question is not so much Crimea, where most expect an upcoming referendum will result in a vote to join Russia. Many believe the next area of tension will be in pro Russian Eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin is facing off with a new government in Kiev that's broke and dependent on the Russian market for exports and energy.

Maria Lipman says there's plenty Moscow can do economically to destabilise Ukraine, it doesn't need to fire a shot.

MARIA LIPMAN: I mean the list is potentially endless of troubles that Russia can inflict on Ukraine now short of using its military force and scandalising the whole world.

NORMAN HERMANT: The Kremlin may not have to use its military, but many here say it is prepared to fight to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, no matter what the cost.