Go!

Still no sign of an Irish Times poll, so I’ve done a constituency-by-constituency projection based on the average of the RedC and Lansdowne/MB polls published yesterday. Knowing my luck, they’ll come out about 10 minutes after I post this….. As ever, if you spot a mistake, please let me know.

For those of you who might be new here, this projection is based on a spreadsheet I’ve developed that extrapolates national votes to local areas. It’s not a portal to the future, and in some areas, parties are likely to outperform the national swing, and in other areas under-perform it, but this shows roughly what they may be deviating from, and largely those differences should cancel one another out.

I’ve made a few adjustments in the base distributions to acknowledge the change of leadership in FF, reducing the FF base vote in Laois-Offaly and increased it in Cork, with a double boost in CSC. Also a couple of tweaks where local factors may impact (e.g. Shane Ross in Dublin South), so the distribution has changed a tad.

Local developments:
Popular FF TD and Defence Minister Tony Kileen is retiring. The intentions of former IND FF TD James Breen who lost his seat in 2007 are unclear, but I’m assuming that he’s running. Former Independent MEP candidate Michael McNamara who polled 10,000 Clare votes in 2009 has joined the LP and will be seeking a seat.

A scramble for Kileen’s seat, with it falling to Indo Breen on these figures, from McNamara. NB I’m told that SF aren’t contesting here (which appears strange, but there you go) – not clear at this stage what effect that might have.

Local developments:
A population of c. 4,250 moves out for CNC. Both LP and FG will be hopeful of picking up a FF seat here. Ned O’Keefe has moved on, with son Kevin hoping to hold the seat in his place.

Local developments:
Boundary revisions see the new voters from Cork E (above) and also a transfer of a population of c.4,300 from Cork NW, making it a slightly more rural constituency. Noel O’Flynn and Bernard Allen have both retired, the latter being replaced by popular former Mayor Dara Murphy. Lynch has a strong running mate in John Gilroy

Comments
FF lose both seats, with one going to FG, and the other to the winner of a scramble between LP2, SF and SP. It looks like SP to me on these figures, but both LP2 and SF are competitive, and LP2 could even be elected in addition to SP if they split the vote well (at the expense of FG2).

Even Martin taking the leadership (which I give them a one-fifth bonus for) isn’t enough to give FF 2 seats, although it makes Martin’s previously didgy seat very safe. On these figures, Desmond would nudge ahead of O’leary and hold off FG3, but very close, and I’d not write off the former GP man on the basis of this.

Local developments:
Jim McDaid has retired, and Blaney isn’t running for personal reasons. Former Indo, Cllr Jimmy Harte, has joined LP and will be their candidate. 4 electoral divisions (pop of 2,351) in the former Stranorlar Rural district are being transfered to South West.

As predicted by most punters, I think, McDaid’s seat goes to SF. FF hold on to 1 seat, although if geogrpahy becomes an issue, he may struggle, with MacLoughlain also based in Inishowen. Hard to see either FF or SF fail to take a seat on these figures, though, although Harte will try to use his Letterkenny base to his best advantage.

Having lost 1 seat to SF in the by-election, FF lose a second, this time Tanaiste Mary Coughlan msot likely losing out to Indo Thomas Pringle, although McBreaty may push closer than expected if he does well in the new Stranorlar districts on his doorstep, coming in from North-East.

FF collapse, and while it’s possible that they could out-perform this if FitzPatrick plays the maverick card, it’s hard to see them do so to the extent that they hold a seat. On these figures, Donoghue’s dream finally comes true. The other FF seat is taken by and Indo (possibly Perry who haas a very strong base in Cabra and comes from the same republican/left gene poll that MLMcD is hoping will vote SF. Clancy misses out by a very small margin, largely as a result of poor vote management (I’m anticipating she gets no more than 33% of LP vote, but needs closer to 38% or so).

Local developments:
Mary Harney is expected to retire. Ex-Indo Cllr Derek Keating has joined FG ticket with fellow 2007 hopeful Frances FitzGerald. LP have selected former Mayor Robert Dowds to their ticket alongside sitting TD Joanna Tuffy, and SF candidate will be former Belfast City Cllr Eoin O’Broin. Other than that, not much…. Oh yes, and rival ULA campaigns…..

Local developments:
A large chunk of Swords (pop c. 12,800) has left for Dublin West, and another area around Portmarnock (pop. c. 9,000) goes to NE, making life harder for Kennedy and SP hopeful Clare Daly. Sargant is no longer GP leader.

Local developments:
As mentioned above, new area in Portmarnock, but losing voters in Edenmore. Killian Forde has left SF for LP, but failed to get the nomination ahead of Broughan and Sean Kenny (the ticket that took 2 seats in 1992!).

Local developments:
De Brudder is retiring. Apparently worried that Bill Tormey doesn’t send out the appropriate image for FG in DNW, they have added Clontarf-based LM Gerry Breen to the ticket, which should be good for a laugh – prepare to hear about a wave of Romanian drug-pushing prostitutes on a crime spree in a PR from our first citizen of the capital…… LP have added John Lyons to a ticket that will be aiming for 2 seats.

Local developments:
Seamus Brennan has passed away, and politically George Lee came and did the same. Tom Kitt insists that he is retiring. A re-drawing of the constituency has seen a largely (upper) middle class area (pop c. 11,700) move in from Dun Laoghaire, and this may prove good hunting grounds for Shane Ross (running on a “Sunday” Independent ticket…) and Peter “Bankers” Matthews, possibly to the detrimnet of Alan Shatter, who will surely know there aren’t 4 FG gene-pool seats here.

Both FF seats go, one to Ross and the other to LP, who also nick in to take Eamon Ryan’s seat. Biggest danger for LP is getting a good split in the vote here, as Aidan Culhane was added very late to the ticket, and failure to do so could see them lose out.
Dublin SC (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 33.1% 2 seats – Sean Ardagh, Michael Mulcahy
FG 14.4% 1 seat – Catherine Byrne
LP 21.1% 1 seat – Mary Upton
GP 5.8%
SF 10.2% 1 seat – Aengus O’Snodaigh
OTH 15.5%

Local developments:
Sean Ardagh is retiring, as is Mary Upton, whose nephew Henry, son of the late Pat Upton, will join Eric Byrne (very narrow loser here in ’07) and Micahel Conaghan as LP try to pull off 3 seats. Their biggest difficulty is likely to be ULA Cllr Joan Collins, who will be supported by former opponent Brid Smith of the SWP/PBP.

FF lose both seats, one to LP, who narrowly lose out to Joan Collins for the last seat. Still, a sign of the times that they would go from narrowly missing a second seat to narrowly missing a third. No doubt this would be a happy outcome for Collins, who was expelled from LP when in the Militant Tendency. LP may yet rue not running Rebecca Moynihan, although one suspects that her day will come.
Dublin SE (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 28.7% 1 seat – Chris Andrews
FG 18.6% 1 seat – Lucinda Creighton
LP 16.7% 1 seat – Ruairi Quinn
GP 13.8% 1 seat – John Gormley
SF 4.7%
OTH 17.4%

Local developments:
Michael McDowell has retired, having got his cards from the electorate. Gormley has become GP leader. Paul Somerville takes time out from his busy schedule to tell us how to do stuff, and Mannix Flynn will be hoping to perform well.

Local developments:
Rabbitte is no longer LP leader. None of the last 3 poll toppers were elected here in the following election, which may cause Conor Lenihen some anxiety, and he is reputedly seeking to run in Dub Sth.

Local developments:
Brian Lenihan’s health problems are likely to result in a sympathy vote, and so I’ve increased the base FF vote in the spreadsheet to 50%. Joe Higgins will run, following his successful foray in the recent EP elections. An additional seat, with voters moved in from Swords from Dublin North.

Local developments:
One less seat to go round with the boundary review, and a chunk of the consitiuency (largely FG, FF and PD voting) has left for Dub Sth. Eamon Gilmore has become LP leader, and has a high profile running mate in Ivana Bacik, who will challenge strongly for a seat, although FG’s Mary Mitchell-O’Connor and ULA’s Richard Boyd-Barrett will both be hopeful of beating her to it. 3 Ministers in Hanafin, Barry Andrews and Ciaran Cuffe are all up against it.

FF running both TDs lose both, one to LP and one to the constituency revision, with RBB taking Cuffe’s seat. While FG would fancy their chances, there appear to be insufficient transfers for them to take the seat, with GP and SF voters likely to lean left with their preferences, and FF unlikely to go anywhere in particular.
Galway E (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.7% 2 seats – Noel Tracey, Michael Kitt
FG 39.1% 2 seats – Paul Connaughton, Ulick Burke
LP 3.1%
GP 1.9%
SF 3.2%
OTH 13.0%

Local developments:
FG TDs Paul Connaghton and Ulick Burke have both announced thier retirements, and so interim “let’s get this party ended” PD leader Ciaran Cannon seems likely to be in the next Dail. Paddy McHugh is unlikely to run, but another indo (Sean Canney) is likely to take his place on the ticket.

A tough one to call, given the multiplicity of candidates, but I have SF and GP transfers pushing LP1 ahead of FG3, to see him/her take enough FG transfers on the election of FG2 to beat Canney for the last seat, although Canney could still hold off FF, particularly if he does well on SF transfers. Very tight.

Local developments:
Boundary changes are significnat enough to warrant a name change for the old Kerry Nth – and area with a population of c.5,000 moves to kerry Sth, with a chunk of Western Limericak (pop. c. 13,000) moves intot he new constituency. Arthur Spring seeking to bring a third generation of the dynasty to Kerry North

Local developments:
As mentioned above, new voters arrive from Kerry Nth. The cap is being passed on to the next generation, with Michael Healy-Rae standing in his father’s stead. FF member Tom Fleming recently announced his intention to run as an Indo, and this will test how much of that vote will stay in the family fold. LP have decided against a dynastic candidate, by fielding a non-Moynihan, and it will be interesting to see how much of that vote was LP.

Local developments:
A small transfer of population (c.1,300) to Kildare Sth. Michael FitzPatrick has been seriously ill for some time, but he has been reported as seeking re-election, although a 2-candidate strategy may sink FF’s hopes of a single seat here, and Martin may intervene.

Local developments:
Former Minister Sean Power has tried to put some distance between himself and the FF leadership. Jack Wall has stoutly resisted to date having to accept a running mate, and is believed to be hoping to pass the seat on to his son the following election, although I understnad that internal polls are resulting in pressure for him to accept a running mate. FG looking to win back a seat here for the first time since Alan Dukes was their local man.

Local developments:
A population of c.4,000 in Roscrea is moved from here to Tipp Nth. Big leaders bonus here for Brian Cowen has just gone, and he announced today that he won’t be a candidate (although his brother Barry is very likely). John Moloney rumooured to be quitting. LP will be hoping that the poor LP track record here since Pat Gallagher quit politics will be reversed by their selection of former Leinster Express editor John Whelan, although the local row this provoked may not help him, whatever Oscar Wilde said about bad publicity…although the subsequent split among those who opposed him possibly vindicates LP’s decision to go with him. FG lose Olywn Enright and got almost exactly their national average vote here last time, but are talking up their chances of a third seat.

Local developments:
Drops a seat and renamed from Limerick East, with FG-friendly rural wards (pop. c.17,000) deserting Kieran O’Donnell for the County. Willie O’Dea now hoping his removal from cabinet over slandering SF candidate Maurice Quinlivan will distance him from the Govt, and Quinlivan will doubtless be hoping that the trick of winning a court case will give him the sort of boost that helped Pearse Doherty. Both FF and FG may end up dropping a seat, with their better long-term bets (in Power and O’Donnell) losing out to men who probably will be contesting their final GE, and Jan O’Sullivan may have to split her vote generously if she is to pull in running mate Joe Leddin.

Local developments:
Gains a bit from Limerick East, and loses a bit to Kerry North. The third seat has done funny things here over the years, going to the PDs, and going to FG2 on one occasion as a result of IND FF candidates splitting the FF vote oddly once, and young LP candidate James Heffernan, who polled very well in the ’09 LEs will be hoping to provide the surprise here this time.

Local developments:
Former PD TD, Longford-based Mae Sexton, has provoked deja-vu among those who remember Helena McAuliffe Ennis, and apoplexy among others, by joining LP, and is well placed to take Peter Kelly’s seat if it stays in Longford, although FG have high hopes that Nicky McFadden will bring it across the county line to Westmeath.

Close, but the addition of gender and county balance to the LP ticket here should be enough to take a second seat, given the SF transfers that will be on offer. Sexton will need some Westmeath votes though, as Penrose will be well aware.

Local developments:
Hardly anything here really…. 😉 Dermot Ahern and Arthur Morgan are retiring, Seamus Kirk won’t be on the ballot as Ceann Comhairle, Gerry Adams seeks a seat in a national parliament (that he’d take) for the first time. Technically, the Baron has had to be appointed to a job that doesn’t really exist, in order to resign from a Parliament that he never actually attended. When East meets West, eh…?

LP looking to take the seat that Michael Bell held in the 80s, assisted not just by a Gilmore Gale but also a large chunk of Meath adjacent to Drogheda (pop. c.17,500) which perviously voted LP in large measure and which Drogheda based Ged Nash will be hoping will seal the deal for him. FG replace Mairead McGuiness with GAA man Peter FitzPatrick

Local developments:
We need more politicians with convictions, they say, but they’re losing one here, with the retirement of Beverly Cooper-Flynn – much to the relief, one imagines, of Dara Calleary who should now be safe. FG leader Enda Kenny will again try for the feat of a 4th seat that they weren’t a million miles off last time, but will be hampered by the decision of ex Indo TD Dr Jerry Cowley to join LP, and also any Adams Avalanche. Word is that ex-LP member and Indo Cllr Michael Kilcoyne isn’t running.

Local developments:
The constituency loses the chunk to Louth and gains c.6.750 votes around Kells from Meath W, dropping the LP vote a percentage point or two. Mary Wallace, has retired, allowing Byrne at least some chance of making it.

Local developments:
Loses Kells to Meath E. This combined with the retirement of Noel Dempsey is expected to give a boost to Navan-based Jenny McHugh who lives in that town and is principal of a local National School. FG and SF both have high hopes here also, with the latter talking up new canididate Peadar Toibin’s chances. Famously, FG supporter Sarah Carey just before the ’07 election said that if Graeme Geraghty ran for the Communist Party in Meath he would be elected, however he ran for FG and got 3%, so perhaps the marxist left will take a seat here in 2011.

Local developments:
A population of c.3,400 moves from the Leitrim part of this constituency to Sligo-N.Leitrim. Michael Finneran has surprised many by announcing his retirement. Indo candidate John Kelly did very well here in ’07, polling 10%, and LP will hope that his running under their banner will see them pull off an historic seat here. SF however got 4 times as many votes as their candidate last time, and if SF do very well this time, they will be hard to beat. Add to the mix Luke “Ming” Flanagan, who was elected in Kelly’s ward (alebeit with a much lower vote) in ’09, and who is Roscommon’s Mayor, a certain FG seat, a very likely FG 2nd seat, the locally resented partition of Leitrim, and FF hoping to hold on to what was Finneran’s seat, and this could be a long – and contested count.

Finneran may have known something …. FF lose their seat here, on these figures Flanagan surfing a wave of Indo votes, although he and Kelly are very competitive and competing on the same patch – however wins that tussle appears very likely to be elected.

Local developments:
Again there are local resentments about the partitiion of Leitrim between two constituencies unlikely to return a TD from that county. Here the two FF TDs are, somewhat bizarrely, not taking the FF whip, but voting with the government on every issue. Jimmy Devins won’t run again, leaving the task of holding the FF seat to his fellow “rebel” (ahem) Eamon Scanlon. FG2 will be hopeful of taking a seat, as will LP’s Susan O’Keefe, who polled respectably in Ireland-West in the Euros, but SF will consider themselves favourites to take a seat in this constituency if there is a surge to their party, particulary as they got a decent vote here even when polling 1-2% nationally. The dark horse will be Declan Bree (ULA), having taken a seat in the Sping Tide for LP, but since cast aside his Tankie principals for an alliance dominated by Trotskyists.

Local developments:
Lowry Country. More? Oh, well Alan Kelly is running for LP, and so a rainforest of leaflets promoting him should go through the local letterboxes. But other than that, no, sorry. I’ve got nothing.

Local developments:
Martin Cullen has retired, and FG have high hopes for Paudge Coffey to take his seat. Brian O’Shea has retired, and LP are running City-based John Ryan and Dungarvan based Ciara Conway. Ex-WP cllr John Halligan is also expected to poll well.

Local developments:
Contrary to earlier rumours, I’m now told that ex-SF candidate John Dwyer will be running as an Independent left-wing candidate, rather than hitch his wagon to the ULA. The outcome here could depend on whether Brendan Howlin splits his vote, as otherwise his running mate Pat Cody could lose out to SF, Dwyer or, conceivably, FG3. FF got just over their national vote here last time, and so require a significant recovery if Browne and Connick are to be doing more than fighting over a single seat.

FF lose a seat to Cody, who edges ahead of Cody of the pack, assuming he manages about 38-40% of the LP vote – much less and he’d most likely lose out. I’d not write off Dwyer though, and if he holds on to more of the SF vote than I’ve given him here, he could be in the running also.
Wicklow (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.0% 2 seats – Dick Roche, Joe Behan
FG 23.2% 2 seats – Andrew Doyle, Billy Timmons
LP 16.3% 1 seat – Liz McManus
GP 7.4%
SF 5.0%
OTH 10.1%

Local developments:
Joe Behan has since reigned from FF in protest over the early phase of the cuts, although since then has supported much harsher measures, and might decide against running again. Liz McManus has retired, and her son didn’t make it on the 3 person ticket that seems well balanced in terms of geography.

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20 Responses

Dublin NE – The loss of Edenmore will hit Seán Kenny. In the last 3 local elections, he has received the majority of the votes in that area. I would lean towards Larry O’Toole of Sinn Féin & Bohemians taking the last seat.

Dublin West- Patrick Nulty is a weak candidate and while his election would give election day a “Portillo” moment, I just can’t see it. The LP will need serious vote management here for anything to happen.

Dublin NW – You are giving the 2 right wing parties 29.3% between them and no seat. I wonder what the transfer rate will be? If Ellis falls below 20%, then he could be in trouble. Shortall is also running a very personalised campaign. She seems scared of young Mr. Lyons, who is well known locally. If there is a big difference between herself & Johnny, the LP could mess up badly here, as they did for example in 1969 when Gervaise (Gerry) Thornley’s father ran here. If Shortall takes say 30% of the vote here as is quite possible, then the last 2 seats could go anywhere. However you are most probably correct.

Dublin Central – I just can’t see Perry taking out Mary Lou. She is older, wiser and a good deal more mature than the last time and less prone to putting her foot in it. I think she is also likely to pick up more transfers than he is. Clancy’s core area is Glasnevin/Drumcondra, her votes, if she is eliminated could go all over the place.

Dublin N C – I am just not sure that Aodhán Ó Riordáin will do it here. Remember FF had 3 out of 4 here not too long ago. Ó Riordáin’s performance in the local elections was below the LP’s average in Dublin with 16.45% in historically their worst electoral area in Dublin. He will need to get every vote possible from the Artane end of the constituency. Had he been allowed to stay in Central, it might have been a different story, but you are probably correct.

Finally, it is good to see Robert Dowds in with an excellent chance of a seat in DMW. Robert first stood in Local elections in Finglas in 1979 and is a strong Christian Socialist. As a proud member & active member of the Church of Ireland he would be a good addition to the Dáil

Thanks for that, agree that where you’ve taken issue with the predictions they could all go either way – a lot of twists and turns between now and polling day I suspect. Also interested to read about Robert Dowds, about whom I know very little – it does indeed sound like he could be a good addition to DE.

Think FF will do better than 19 seats, on the above figures there are plenty where an FF cand on 10-14% is missing out to an Ind or Lab cand on 12-16% so even a slight shift upwards in the polls might make them competitive again. I do appreciate a transfer difficulty but they may come from less traditional sources, e.g. an FG red scare follow through.

Couple of point of information:

Dublin South Central, Outgoing TD Michael Mulcahy TD is joined on the FF ticket by Cllr. Eamonn Walsh.

Meath East – Sharon Kaeoghan, former member of the FF national executive is going it alone on what I gather to be a sort of IndoFF ticket.

Kildare North – Can confirm both incumbent FF Deputies Michael Fitzpatrick and Aine Brady back in the hunt with both launching campaigns within past 48 hours.

Kildare South – Allegedly FG are running scared of Indo Clifford “Stop the Paedophiles” Reid. Not sure how much substance to that rumour but gather at least part of it stems from geography.

Prediction – FF on 20% in next poll ~ 25 seats.
We’ll take that for week 1 🙂

I think you may well be right on FF – i do detect a certain ‘release’ among some FF members I know since the leadership changed, and a good leadership debate could put them back on the road, if not to govt, well to a much better place in opposition than current polls suggest. A hard fight though, and I don’t envy you it!

basically there’s a big big swing to the left, LP are double or more their ’07 rating, SF are double or more their ’07 rating, OTH are well up on ’07 also, so 1 LP becoming 1 LP and 1 l/w indo is hardly surprising – sure MDH’s retirement will hit them, but FG have been hit by the retirement of their only TD also.

Great stuff as usual Dotski, but I would take issue with the claim of rival ULA campaigns in DMW, Rob and Gino having completely different support bases. The decision to run two candidates (passed without incident by all ULA groupings) is based more on a long-term strategy with the local elections in mind. They’re no more rival than any other political formation running 2 candidates for strategic reasons.

For Dublin Mid West, the word “rival” is probably a bit strong for the two ULA candidates. Neither expects to win, and both are running with a view to building support so both can get seats in the next locals. Not exactly co-operating, but ‘rivals’ isn’t quite right either.

Sorry if the ULA thing came across as a bit “off”- I do think though that if there’s 2 ULA candidates in DMW and only one had that Joe Higgins supports them on their posters, it will look very odd to potential ULA voters – there’s 2 LP candidates in my area, and if one and only one had “Supported by Eamon Gilmore” it would have the locals wondering what was going on.

Great post, enjoyed reading it, you should enter the prediction competition. Even on the ones we disagree, I think could go either way. Mind you, if you’re going to celebrate Ming being elected, I can think of something other than champagne that might be mroe appropriate! 😉

many thanks. Next poll I’m aware of is a RedC on the SBP – I understand it was completed today and is with SBP, I suspect it will be leaked around 5pm tomorrow (sat.). I heard the Sindo may have a poll also based on ballot papers (although that would understate parties with a lot of new candidates who are just getting them known to voters), but I don’t know if that’s definite.