Accepted Answer

There are a few places to "aim." If you want to make absolutely sure you make it, aim for the lake. However, you cannot hit the little bar of rock that prevents the lake from spilling into the abyss. If you want to be a bit riskier about it, you can aim for the end of the rock barrier or the wall. If you hit either of these, you'll be on the upper level when you respawn. However, again, if you hit the closer parts of the rock barrier, you'll respawn on the lower level.