Friday, November 1, 2013

A Brief Over-Simplification of Honduran Politics

We dropped
into Honduras right as the Presidential race was beginning to heat up. It’s now
a month before the election and things seem even crazier than they were two
months ago. With the acknowledgment that I am a North American student whose Honduran
political knowledge is younger than some of the food in the back of your
fridge, I present to you… a gross
oversimplification of the 2013 Presidential race.

Historically,
Honduras has had two political parties: the Liberal and the National. People
compare their ideologies respectively to the Democrat and Republican parties of
the United States, but it’s also widely acknowledged that the two parties are
functionally the same.

The regular
exchange of National and Liberal candidates was halted in 2009 with a coup to
oust then-President Mel Zelaya, a Liberal candidate who made waves partially by
trying to pass movements that would allow himself to be reelected. Zelaya was
replaced by an interim President, Micheletti, until the current Presidential
term started.

In 2010, the
National candidate Pepe Lobo became President. I don’t know enough to tell you
if he’s been good or bad for Honduras, but I do know enough to tell you his
name means “Baby bottle Wolf” in Spanish. In case you wanted to impress anyone with some Honduran trivia.

The 2009
coup was hugely controversial, with the country split between supporting it and
protesting it. Zelaya, who was marginally popular before, actually gained
popularity after being ousted. But one of the biggest changes the coup caused
was the end of the two-party system. There have always been third-party
candidates, but this year, the race is between four candidates from four different parties. Here, the who’s who in
the 2013 Presidential election:

Juan Orlando
Hernandez is from the National Party, and is the current President of Congress.
Though Hondurans will openly admit that all politicians are corrupt, Juan
Orlando is seen to be particularly shady. He has a massive amount of money to
spend on his campaign that is coming from somewhere
and as a result, posters of his face hang from almost every telephone post
in the country.

Mauricio
Villeda is the Liberal Party’s representative. We met him at a debate, where he
chatted with us in English and shared a story about ordering a hamburger in Ann
Arbor. People consider him the most honest candidate, but also, perhaps one of
the weaker. Charisma is not his strong point. “He might make a good President,”
someone told me, “but he’s a terrible candidate.” He also suffers from the new
weakness of the Liberal party that comes from…

Xiomara
Castro. The wife of Mel Zelaya, who has no previous political experience
outside of being first lady, formed her own party after the coup. The Libre
party, a splinter of the Liberal party, is now nearly as strong or stronger
than the two historic parties. Stop and think for a moment how crazy that is.
Imagine a strong personality from the Democrat Party forming her own party and within three years having
a chance to win. Xiomara has found her place farther left than the Liberal
party, and appeals to low-wage workers, teachers, and other people desperate
for change.

The fourth
player is Salvador Nasralla, better known for being a beloved sports announcer
and the host of a Sunday morning game show. He jumped on the small
Anti-Corruption party, and the strength of his name has won him more followers
than he otherwise might have. Again, stop for a moment to ponder this. The best
analogy I can think of is that guy who always announces the Olympics. Bob
Costas for President, 2016?

With 30% of
the population currently undecided, it’s still anyone’s game. Polls show
Xiomara and Juan Orlando near-tied with Villeda a close third, but at this
point polls are partly speculation. What is certain is that no one candidate is
going to get more than a third of the vote, meaning an election were the
majority voted against the winner.
(This doesn’t only happen in the States, I guess!)

It’s a huge
privilege to be right here in the middle of this, meeting the players that are
going to affect Honduras over the next four years. We’ll be right here watching
the voting and, even more interestingly, the results. No matter what happens,
this is a historic election for Honduras. And now that you’re (at least a little bit) informed, you can
turn your eyes this way and follow along with us!