But his tyre warmer issues are part of who he is, and he has suffered more than once with it, that only helps my point.

Next year the field will be just as tight, maybe even tighter. Qualifying will be even more important, something which is not his forte. Add to this his repeated issues with getting a car to his liking, plus his struggles thereafter with an unbalanced car, and I don't think he is a good enough driver to lead a top 3 team to a WDC.

I believe the McLaren will need to have a considerable pace advantage for him to win; give him an advantage like in Spa and he will do fine, but if the car is only slightly faster than the rest (ala the last 4/5 bar Japan), then he will only be podium material. Vettel and Alonso will get more out of the car, as will Hamilton.

All his set-up issues tend to come from tyre warming, which they seem to have cracked with the current narrow-window tyres. Next year they'll have tyres with a wider range and a car that's an evolution of this years. Next year should be much easier for him in terms of handling than this. Of course 2014 may be a different story...

I was cutting the first 7 races out because, while I accept he did excellent, he had all the advantages.

Take them away, and let equality hit, he was pretty much equal to his team-mate. Losing out in terms of wins and slightly on points.

I suppose what I'm really getting at is that 2009 is not a great example of what he can do; there were some special circumstances surrounding the start of it. I could be horribly wrong, and Button could beat Perez by 100 points next year and grind out a flawless WDC, where Red Bull get the majority of the poles. However, my point is the evidence doesn't say anything like this will happen.

In fact, if Perez is as consistent as he seems, then that could be very bad news for Button. The reason he beat Hamilton was consistency, and if that advantage is taken away, he better hope Perez is dog slow.

I was cutting the first 7 races out because, while I accept he did excellent, he had all the advantages.

Take them away, and let equality hit, he was pretty much equal to his team-mate. Losing out in terms of wins and slightly on points.

I suppose what I'm really getting at is that 2009 is not a great example of what he can do; there were some special circumstances surrounding the start of it. I could be horribly wrong, and Button could beat Perez by 100 points next year and grind out a flawless WDC, where Red Bull get the majority of the poles. However, my point is the evidence doesn't say anything like this will happen.

In fact, if Perez is as consistent as he seems, then that could be very bad news for Button. The reason he beat Hamilton was consistency, and if that advantage is taken away, he better hope Perez is dog slow.

I don't understand why you're cutting those races out though, because he performed well whilst Rubens struggled? And what do you mean by equality hit? Even in the last seven races JB gained 23 positions (bad qualifying but made up places in 5 races) and only lost 2 positions in the European GP, plus 1 DNF (Grosjean). So I don't see this supposed massive struggle and underperformance in comparison to his team mate. 8 points difference and those where the races that RB got 2 wins.

I was cutting the first 7 races out because, while I accept he did excellent, he had all the advantages.

Take them away, and let equality hit, he was pretty much equal to his team-mate. Losing out in terms of wins and slightly on points.

I suppose what I'm really getting at is that 2009 is not a great example of what he can do; there were some special circumstances surrounding the start of it. I could be horribly wrong, and Button could beat Perez by 100 points next year and grind out a flawless WDC, where Red Bull get the majority of the poles. However, my point is the evidence doesn't say anything like this will happen.

In fact, if Perez is as consistent as he seems, then that could be very bad news for Button. The reason he beat Hamilton was consistency, and if that advantage is taken away, he better hope Perez is dog slow.

Wow! A driver who is defending a substantial lead only scores as many points as his team-mate.

That is a disaster! If he hadn't had that lead, he wouldn't have won the title!

I don't understand why you're cutting those races out though, because he performed well whilst Rubens struggled? And what do you mean by equality hit? Even in the last seven races JB gained 23 positions (bad qualifying but made up places in 5 races) and only lost 2 positions in the European GP, plus 1 DNF (Grosjean). So I don't see this supposed massive struggle and underperformance in comparison to his team mate. 8 points difference and those where the races that RB got 2 wins.

Because when his team-mate caught up with him set-up wise (brake issues) and when the field caught up with Brawn, he didn't show anything special. Unless you are relying on McLaren doing a Brawn, his second half 2009 form is the form we should be looking at. And his team-mate was better.

You touched on him struggling with qualifying; do you think in this extremely tight (and only going to get tighter) field the WDC will come from a poor qualifier? You can counter with his gained places in 2009, but that is only to get him back to where the car belongs. Add to this Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton are all on top of the tyres and on top of race pace; Button will struggle to do anything next year without a early 2009 advantage.

Anyway, I'm going to drop out of this thread; I'm clearly not a Button fan, so I don't wanna ruin this thread being negative. And unusually we are going to see who is right. What a scary thought that is

Anyway, I'm going to drop out of this thread; I'm clearly not a Button fan, so I don't wanna ruin this thread being negative. And unusually we are going to see who is right. What a scary thought that is

Dunno, I have a feeling that unluckily the MP4-28 will be the 4th best car next year...

He won 6 of the first 7 races due to a car advantage. Then when the field had caught up and the real business began, he stumbled over the line with his team-mate being the better driver in the 2nd half. With his team-mate actually looking like the guy who can deliver when the chips are down.

And after those first 7 races, without the car advantage...

In the remaining 10 races he beat his team mate 4 times and retired (due to Groejean) once, whilst ahead of his team mate.

In those 10 races the Brawn car only won twice and was on the podium three times in total. That is not dominant in my book.

In those 10 races the RB5 won 5 races and was on the podium nine times in total. More than double the race wins and three times the podiums including four retirements.

So how does someone so shit still manage to do enough to win the WDC.

Stop sulking that LH has left his best chance to fulfil your wet dream.

Your point is non-existent. It's pretty clear that Jenson drove differently in the 2nd half of 2009, precisely because he was defending his lead, and was probably a little over-anxious not to throw away his chance at the title.

If Jenson hadn't been defending a lead, he might not have backed off when Vettel squeezed him in Valencia, and in fact Vettel might not have squeezed him so aggressively, so the 8 points which Rubens gained on him would have been maybe only 2 or 3 points. In which case Jenson's points in the last 7 races would be the same as Rubens'.

But all this is speculative, the fact is he did what he needed to do and won reasonably comfortably, not in a last corner scramble.

Your point is non-existent. It's pretty clear that Jenson drove differently in the 2nd half of 2009, precisely because he was defending his lead, and was probably a little over-anxious not to throw away his chance at the title.

If Jenson hadn't been defending a lead, he might not have backed off when Vettel squeezed him in Valencia, and in fact Vettel might not have squeezed him so aggressively, so the 8 points which Rubens gained on him would have been maybe only 2 or 3 points. In which case Jenson's points in the last 7 races would be the same as Rubens'.

But all this is speculative, the fact is he did what he needed to do and won reasonably comfortably, not in a last corner scramble.

But Jenson characteristically backs off in those situations, like he did in Japan last year. Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton, don't.

Jenson's form in 09 disappeared suddenly under the pressure of his home race. Hamilton never lost his form. This is part of why McLaren offered Lewis so much to stay, albeit too late.

But Jenson characteristically backs off in those situations, like he did in Japan last year. Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton, don't.

Jenson's form in 09 disappeared suddenly under the pressure of his home race. Hamilton never lost his form. This is part of why McLaren offered Lewis so much to stay, albeit too late.

In Silverstone 2009 the team made a mistake and called Jenson in on his hot lap, which put him back on the grid.

IIRC he was then stuck behind Trulli, but he drove a very strong stint to jump most of the cars in front of him, even though the car was already suffering from the tyre-warming problem. He actually finished a very short distance behind his team-mate who had no dramas at all on his way to the podium.

So I would say it was the Brawn team, rather than just Jenson, who found it hard to cope with the pressure. I'd like to say it's different at McLaren, maybe it will be next year. If Jenson doesn't succeed in 2013, it's more likely to be down to the team.

My point is delivering for a whole season under pressure of being in the WDC fight. There are question marks over him.

Button delivered in 2009. Sorry if wrapping it up after 10 races is not good enough for you. He was managing a big lead with a dwindling car. Rubens had to roll the dice.If you want to talk about crumbling, see Hamilton in 2007 and 2011.Bottom line is whether you compare the last 6 seasons or 3 the fact is Button is just as capable of winning a title as Hamilton. Can't wait until Hamilton jogs off!

Button delivered in 2009. Sorry if wrapping it up after 10 races is not good enough for you. He was managing a big lead with a dwindling car. Rubens had to roll the dice.If you want to talk about crumbling, see Hamilton in 2007 and 2011.Bottom line is whether you compare the last 6 seasons or 3 the fact is Button is just as capable of winning a title as Hamilton. Can't wait until Hamilton jogs off!

Were not talking about Hamilton though are we?

Button has had a contending car 2 out of last 3 years - hasnt come close - cant see it changing next year.

In Silverstone 2009 the team made a mistake and called Jenson in on his hot lap, which put him back on the grid.

IIRC he was then stuck behind Trulli, but he drove a very strong stint to jump most of the cars in front of him, even though the car was already suffering from the tyre-warming problem. He actually finished a very short distance behind his team-mate who had no dramas at all on his way to the podium.

So I would say it was the Brawn team, rather than just Jenson, who found it hard to cope with the pressure. I'd like to say it's different at McLaren, maybe it will be next year. If Jenson doesn't succeed in 2013, it's more likely to be down to the team.

Well JB himself said he was only going to qualify 5th even if he hadn't been called in. And it wasn't just Silverstone, it was all the races thereafter, a step-change that just looked exactly like tightening up.

Though I do agree McLaren suits Jenson extremely well. Still, I think next year everybody's gonna be saying the car's not quite a front-runner...

Well JB himself said he was only going to qualify 5th even if he hadn't been called in. And it wasn't just Silverstone, it was all the races thereafter, a step-change that just looked exactly like tightening up.

Though I do agree McLaren suits Jenson extremely well. Still, I think next year everybody's gonna be saying the car's not quite a front-runner...

Don't gimme this fakery, pretending that is 'form'. In 07 he was a mile in the lead in China and so nearly had pole in Brazil. In 08 he won China and kept it together with that low d/f wing in wet Brazil under amazing pressure. In 2010 could have won but for Webber and a toe link that 9 times out of 10 wouldn't have broken. Last year the car wasn't really a contender but even though it's billed as a meltdown year for Lewis Jenson only won the same number of races.

Lewis keeps his form under pressure. He stays fast. Jenson, in 2009, didn't. Now he has his wdc and another 3 years' maturity, so he'll probably be better. But still. It's a question whether McLaren will have a fast JB if he gets into the lead of the championship. Ferrari, Red Bull. Merc, and Renault won't have that question.

Lewis keeps his form under pressure. He stays fast. Jenson, in 2009, didn't. Now he has his wdc and another 3 years' maturity, so he'll probably be better. But still. It's a question whether McLaren will have a fast JB if he gets into the lead of the championship. Ferrari, Red Bull. Merc, and Renault won't have that question.

Try to read some posts about why JB kept his head cool in 2009. By the end of the season he was racing in Australia spec car trying to score as many points as he could as the car was less and less competitive relatively to RB5. He just couldn't afford to set the world on fire and fight in agressive mode like Rubens did. In was not a decline, it was a calculation. Had LH made the same in 2010 he would've been a WDC.

Don't gimme this fakery, pretending that is 'form'. In 07 he was a mile in the lead in China and so nearly had pole in Brazil. In 08 he won China and kept it together with that low d/f wing in wet Brazil under amazing pressure. In 2010 could have won but for Webber and a toe link that 9 times out of 10 wouldn't have broken. Last year the car wasn't really a contender but even though it's billed as a meltdown year for Lewis Jenson only won the same number of races.

Lewis keeps his form under pressure. He stays fast. Jenson, in 2009, didn't. Now he has his wdc and another 3 years' maturity, so he'll probably be better. But still. It's a question whether McLaren will have a fast JB if he gets into the lead of the championship. Ferrari, Red Bull. Merc, and Renault won't have that question.

Lack of form tends to manifest in different ways for different drivers. With Jenson it tends to be tyre warming issues in Q, with Lewis it's things like missing the pit lane entry or ramming people on the way out of the pits.

Perez wont have the experience for Jenson to turn to when he cant get his setup right.

....

Oh no, not this "Lewis's set-up" stuff again.

At Canada Jensons car was fitted with the "Carbon Industry" brake materials (not his normal "Brembo"), which (because of lack of running) turned out to be incompatible with the preferred set-up he normally uses.

Since Lewis uses that Brake material it made sense to compare the set-ups to see what was causing the problems, it turned out to be the rear brakes overheating the rear tyres.

At Valencia they intended to use Lewis's set-up as starting point, however in the end for that race he ended up back on the "Brembo" brakes with a set-up based on those he had used earlier in the year.

Since then it looks like he mostly had to use and adapt to "Carbon Industry", I have seen a report where they stated he tried the Brembo brakes out in practice in Japan, but whether he ran them is unclear.

Perez is a "Brembo" user. So it would make sense to me that they would target the "Brembo" brake components in the design for next years car.

Do you agree that he 'wrapped the championship up well before the end'?

I don't think you understand what a strawman argument is. It is where you construct an argument around a misrepresentation of somebody's opinion. In fact, exactly what you did when you said that 'wrapped up well before the end' implied 'cruised'. Mine was a simple statement of fact that Button won the championship with races in hand. That's it. The implication being that he managed the difficulty of having a car which was swallowed by the field in terms of performance and development spend to nevertheless win with a comfortable margin. It wasn't easy, far from it, clearly, and the discussion should maybe centre around how well Button coped with it because that may be of relevance next year.

The point of the thread is to discuss whether Button can lead Mclaren against Seb at red Bull and Fred at Ferrari.

If Button had not been in the Brawn - yeah I think Rubens would have won it - the car was that good.

The only real difficult years were 07 and 08 and he stayed coz no-one better wanted him. Dont forget there was that Macca seat available in 07.

What has Kimi got to do with anything?

It would have been looked at as lacking speed if Jbs results were counted. Thats obviously what I meant.

Still its good to hear from our neutral moderators from time to time.

Let me just make one thing clear; I am not, nor am I required to be, neutral. This is never likely to be the case for as long as moderators are drawn from the membership rather than paid staff. I suggest you contact me by PM if you have anything more to say on the point because this discussion is not about me.

Your comment about Rubens makes no sense considering the stance you are prepared to take about Lewis and Button this year. You said "this year's car would have been seen as a bit of a failure if JBs results were the only ones looked at" but I believe that the same standard should be applied to the Brawn in 2009. Why then do you consider Rubens, who finished the season behind Vettel, to have shown enough to make the 2009 championship his? If you're prepared to rewrite 2009 in order to accommodate that result, why would you not be prepared to do so for Button this year? Rewriting 2009 reinforces the view that it was all about the car, while not doing so for 2012 makes it all about the driver, which maybe suits your argument, but is a distortion.

What does your (unsubstantiated and IMO unverifiable) statement about nobody wanting Button in 07 and 08 have to say about his ability to lead McLaren in 2013?

Kimi's current place in the championship shows how ultimate speed is not necessarily the only requirement for finishing well in the WDC, that's all. There are four race winners behind him in the championship, including two with multiple wins. It's not hard to imagine that he could win the championship without winning a race, in fact. You asked whether Button was fast enough to lead a team and although Kimi's performance has been inspirational and brought positive headlines for the team, is it born of speed or consistency? It would be hard to argue that he's not leading his team and inspiring their success. I'm not looking for an answer, just putting it out there as a point for consideration.

2007: His first year in F1 against an all-time great and current double world champion. And you are using this year as a negative??

2008: He won the WDC in what, in retrospect, was the worse car. He kept his pace and aggression all season, his form never dropping.

2010: He got a little aggressive, but McLaren cost him more than he cost himself. A recurring theme, and the reason he has left. Still a man learning his trade, making decision errors.

2011: His worst year, but still lead the challenge to Vettel until it was clear the only way to win the WDC was all out, balls to the wall aggression. You have to remember, he doesn't care about Button and if he beats him. He knows he has Button in his pocket all things considered. He doesn't sit on this forum like us. Still a man learning his trade, making decision errors.

2012: Should be WDC had it not been for McLaren. Destroyed his team-mate based on by far the most valued skill; pace. Has learnt to make better decisions, something Button did years ago outside of the spotlight. Now a man who has learnt his trade, and has outgrown his incompetent employers.

I think he'll make a very good team leader. He's obviously very experienced and very popular down at Woking. I also think he'll beat Perez quite convincingly. However, if he keeps qualifying say, 0.3 - 0.4 secs from the front it is defiantly going to raise the "What if Hamilton was in the car?" question in the press, on here, and inevitably in Woking. That IMO will be the true test of his leadership.

JV has been outstanding in his debut year. And still he is rated as an average journey man.

Thats not quite the same as Lewis Hamilton though is it? Apart from 2011 he's be outstanding in every year he has competed and has not given the impression he is anything but a top driver. I think it woulod be insulting to the likes of Alonso and Vettel if we were to label Lewis a journey man.

JB has proved (2004-2006-2009) that he can lead the team when it is needed. And I'm sure that he can do it no worse than LH did in 2008-09. In fact, LH is a weak leader TBH so I see no reasons why Jenson should struggle with that role in 2013.

JB has proved (2004-2006-2009) that he can lead the team when it is needed. And I'm sure that he can do it no worse than LH did in 2008-09. In fact, LH is a weak leader TBH so I see no reasons why Jenson should struggle with that role in 2013.

If you disagree I'd like to hear why.

I'd like to hear why you think Hamilton is a weak leader and how you measure that to relate to Button?

Thats not quite the same as Lewis Hamilton though is it? Apart from 2011 he's be outstanding in every year he has competed and has not given the impression he is anything but a top driver. I think it woulod be insulting to the likes of Alonso and Vettel if we were to label Lewis a journey man.

And even in 2011 there were some moments of brilliance (China, Germany, Korea pole) that were, admittedly, somewhat overshadowed by the moments of face palm.

JB has proved (2004-2006-2009) that he can lead the team when it is needed. And I'm sure that he can do it no worse than LH did in 2008-09. In fact, LH is a weak leader TBH so I see no reasons why Jenson should struggle with that role in 2013.

If you disagree I'd like to hear why.

Id like to know what McLaren 2013 with Button Perez has to do with Hamilton?

Id like to know how one person being a weak leader instantly makes another person a strong one?

You can have two weak leaders in a team you know.

So, Button beats Sato (wow) in 2004 and 5, then beats Rubens in his first year in the team. That might make him a leading driver in the team, but not necessarily a leader which is an entirely different thing.

What happened in 07-08, where was Button when the team needed leading out of dire dire times? Rubens didnt do it either, but this is about Jenson.

You are so focussed and worried that someone is comparing Jenson to Lewis that you are missing the bigger picture.

The only comment I will make about Lewis though - is that he has NEVER needed to lead. He was raised and trained and ingrained by a team that leads for their drivers. They are there to deliver the result.

I'd like to hear why you think Hamilton is a weak leader and how you measure that to relate to Button?

Because LH is to much affected by a lot of things outside the track. As well as his desire to fight for WDC not for wins affects his long term prospects, 2010 - best example. The year wneh Mclaren could benefit hugely from having strong mentally, fast and consistent leader. Adn I'm not sure LH did his best that time.

So losing Lewis will not be a problem if we are talking about leading a team as they have lost nothing in that prospect.

Because LH is to much affected by a lot of things outside the track. As well as his desire to fight for WDC not for wins affects his long term prospects, 2010 - best example. The year wneh Mclaren could benefit hugely from having strong mentally fast and consistent leader. Adn I'm not sure LH did his best that time.

So loosing Lewis will not be a problem if we are talking about leading a team as they have lost nothing in that prospect.

Thats good to know. As long as Mercedes up their game next year, I don't care who is leading the McLaren team.