Expert boxing predictions part two: What other aspects should bettors consider?

How can bettors find value betting on boxing?

Weight cut and weigh-ins: What should bettors look for?

Does home field advantage exist in boxing betting?

In part one of this article we explained why it is important to analyse boxing styles and how to find information that can inform your boxing predictions. In part two we will look at other aspects that bettors should consider before betting on a boxing match.

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Boxing predictions: Weight cut and weigh-ins

When you bet on boxing, you need to monitor the weigh-ins closely. They can tell you a huge amount about how ready the fighters are and how they will perform on fight night.

Some fighters will try to and gain an edge on their opponent by coming in heavier on fight night. This is achieved by dehydrating themselves to punishing and dangerous levels, cutting up to 20 pounds at times.

In many instances, the extra weight gives a fighter a considerable edge over his opponent, after the weigh-in, fighters will often consume large quantities of fluids and certain foods which results in them coming into the fight sometimes one or two divisions bigger than their opponent.

A fighter who fights at 147 pounds is not a 147 pound man for example. It is imperative that bettors realise the weight that a fight will be fought at. For example, Miguel Cotto fighting Floyd Mayweather at light-middleweight, will mean he is fitter and stronger, rather than fighting at Welterweight. But often the A side (usually the main attraction for the fight) fighter will make the B side fighter contest at a catch-weight to give them the edge.

Recent examples include Mayweather fighting Canelo back in 2013 with the champion (Mayweather) trying to include a rehydration clause in the fight contract, to gain an edge, meaning Canelo would have been unable to weigh above a certain number on the day of the fight.

For Canelo, who rehydrates to more than 170-pounds on the day of the fight, this would be extremely detrimental to his performance and would leave the betting edge firmly in Mayweather’s favour so it is vital that bettors take note of these situations prior to making their boxing predictions.

Why bettors should use Boxrec

BoxRec is the best source for gaining information on any fighter anywhere in the world. The website provides important information about fights and fighters and is the perfect research and reference tool for anyone looking to bet on boxing.

Once a fight is announced make sure you check the fighter’s record, and the kind of opposition he has faced. You will find out a lot about how good a boxer is by comparing how convincingly a fighter has beaten another fighter who an elite-level operator has already boxed.

"Challengers faced is significantly more essential than a win or loss record."

Boxrec is accumulated with a win and loss career record. The career record is all wins + losses + draws + no-contests from the first fight of that particular fighters career to the last fight. Some fighters are matched tough and some easy, so it is imperative if you want to be profitable in the long run betting on boxing that you examine all the key aspects before making your boxing predictions.

It is important monitoring how a boxer has looked in his last few fights, but bettors who assess a fighter’s next bout based on his previous fights are not weighing up the whole scenario for potential outcomes in the next fight. Challengers faced is significantly more essential than a win or loss record.

Highly touted amateurs (usually high-profile Olympians) will be matched straightforwardly to start their career to build momentum, and a fan base. It will not tell bettors much about the fighter until he steps up in class and this is often when you can find value betting against them.

Puncher’s Gloves - Is there such a thing?

Amateur boxing gloves are designed to protect both your hand and your opponent. Professional fight gloves are designed to protect only your hand and not your opponent. Amateur gloves are all Velcro whereas professional fight gloves are laced.

There is a misconception in boxing that when a fighter wears a “puncher’s glove” he or she will have an advantage over their opponent but this is simply not the case.

Cleto Reyes is the glove of choice for a puncher. Grant is an American branded glove (but produced in Mexico) which many believe favours a fighter who likes to box rather than punch with their opponent. Everlast MX are viewed as a puncher’s glove as they allow you to skim the glove because they have a little more space. Winning gloves are popular among Japanese boxers.

Grant became more popular as fighters with hand problems (boxers who suffer with inured or fragile hands during and after fights) shifted from Winning gloves to Grant ones, an example of this is Floyd Mayweather. The choice of glove is not at the top end of the spectrum that you should consider when developing a boxing betting strategy but it is certainly something bettors should consider. You will be surprised how many bettors make fight picks or judgments based upon the make of glove a boxer is wearing.

Betting against the cash cow

A "cash cow" in boxing is a fighter who has huge drawing power when they are fighting. Recent examples of this are Oscar De La Hoya, Canelo Alvarez, Anthony Joshua, and Floyd Mayweather.

It is a highly risky strategy to bet against the cash cow and should only be advised if you are certain that your fighter is far superior to his opponent. Some bettors will bet on the cash cow not because they are confident they will win the fight, but because the chances of the judges being kind to the cash cow is high.

A recent example is when Judge Adalaide Byrd gave an unfathomable 118-110 score for Canelo Alvarez in a fight that many believed he lost against Gennady Golovkin. Canelo was also famously handed a draw by one judge when he fought Floyd Mayweather back in 2013 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, in a fight in which the Mexican lost almost every round.

So it is key for bettors to do research prior to placing bets against a cash cow, something that could potentially save you losses in the long run. A no bet scenario is often the sensible pick on these fights no matter how knowledgeable you are on both fighters.

Betting against the home fighter

When placing a bet on a fight it is imperative that you analyse where the fight will be taking place to determine which fighter to bet on.

When it comes to home field advantage, in certain countries the home fighter will need to lose almost every round convincingly to not get a decision win. If you can identify a fighter that will be subject to home field advantage, you can predict that fight will be going to a decision and likely ending in their favour.

There is always talk of scorecards in certain countries being questionable and bettors certainly need to investigate this when placing bets on a fighter who is travelling abroad to box. There are many contentious decisions when a boxer is fighting away from home so it is certainly a factor bettors need to consider.

Amateur boxing has been well-known for this down the years and no more so than in 1988 when U.S. Olympian, Roy Jones Jr was deprived of a gold medal at the Seoul games against home fighter Park Si-Hun by an unreasoned 86-32 count.

Jones was by far the superior boxer and landed many more punches than his opponent but ended up on the wrong end of a 3-2 judges' decision. The fight triggered an upheaval, and the International Olympic Committee spent years investigating the outcome.

Germany is identified in professional boxing as a country that has been subject to home field advantage, with many British fighters on the wrong end of decisions. Sven Ottke, (a German world champion) retired undefeated due to favourable hometown decisions, and there have been many disputed results on German soil down the years.

Ottke vs. Reid, Valuev vs. Holyfield, Sturm vs. Macklin, Hernandez vs. Ross, and Huck vs. Lebedev are just a few that have been majorly disputed, so bettors should always be wary of betting on this kind of fight when home field advantage can affect your boxing predictions.

Chris studied Media and Sports Journalism at The University of Leeds before finding a career that united his adoration of social media and interest in sports betting. A lifelong boxing fan, Chris has written for numerous publications and produced content for several major fights. He was also the betting correspondent for Matchroom Sports Prizefighter series.

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Pinnacle.com is operated by PinBet Malta Ltd, Level 4, The Penthouse, Suite 2, Europa Business Centre, Triq Dun Karm, Birkirkara, BKR9034 Malta and is licensed in Curacao under the Licence 8048/JAZ2013-013 issued to Ragnarok Corporation N.V., Pletterijweg 43, Willemstad, Curaçao for the provision of casino and sports bet. PinBet Malta Ltd and Ragnarok Corporation N.V. are subsidiary companies falling under the Pinnacle brand. Pinnacle is also licensed in Malta under the Gaming Service Licence MGA/B2C/290/2015 for the provision of sports betting. The Gaming Service Licence has been issued the 1st August 2018 to PinBet Malta Ltd and is regulated by the Malta Gaming Authority.