All things freshwater: news, analysis, humor, reviews, and commentary from Michael E. 'Aquadoc' Campana, hydrogeologist, hydrophilanthropist, Professor of Hydrogeology and Water Resources Management in the Geography Program of the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences (CEOAS) at Oregon State University and Emeritus Professor of Hydrogeology at the University of New Mexico. He is Past President of the American Water Resources Association (AWRA), Past Chair of the Scientists & Engineers Division of the National Ground Water Association (NGWA), Past President of the nonprofit NGWA Foundation and President and Founder the nonprofit Ann Campana Judge Foundation, an organization involved with WaSH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) in Central America. He serves on the Steering Committee of the Global Water Partnership (GWP). CYA statement: with the exception of guest posts, the opinions expressed herein are solely those of Michael E. Campana and not those of CEOAS, Oregon State University, ACJF, AWRA, NGWA, GWP, my spouse Mary Frances, or any other person or organization.

Texas Agriculture Law BlogDon't let the name fool you - there are lots of water issues in agriculture and Tiffany Dowell of Texas A&M University does a fabulous job with this important Internet resource. Give it a read - I do every day!

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Thirsty in SuburbiaGayle Leonard documents things from the world of water that make us smile: particularly funny, amusing and weird items on bottled water, water towers, water marketing, recycling, the art-water nexus and working.

This Day in Water HistoryMichael J. 'Mike' McGuire, engineer extraordinaire, NAE member, and author of 'The Chlorine Revolution', blogs about historical happenings in the fields of drinking water and wastewater keyed to calendar dates.

Watershed Moments: Thoughts from the HydrosphereFrom Sarah Boon - rediscovering her writing and editing roots after 13 years, primarily as an environmental scientist. Her writing centres around creative non-fiction, specifically memoir and nature writing. The landscapes of western Canada are her main inspiration.

WaterWiredAll things freshwater: news, comment, publications and analysis from hydrogeologist Michael E. Campana, Professor at Oregon State University and Technical Director of the AWRA.

The recent devastating bush fires in Australia highlight the country’s growing dilemma over climate change. Australia’s economy remains heavily weighted toward extractive industries, leading to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions linked to climate change. A growing portion of voters see climate change as a threat to Australia’s vital interests. Many are pressuring Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s right of center Liberal-National Party Coalition to take additional steps to reduce emissions and combat climate change.

The Fires

According to the Australian government, “Australia is one of the most fire prone regions in the world.” Nonetheless, the 2019-2020 fires were extraordinary. (See Figure 1.) More than 27.2 million acres of vegetation, 33 people, an estimated one billion animals, and over 2,500 homes were lost to bushfires in Australia in the 2019-2020 fire season. (Fire Season normally lasts from October 1 to March 31.) The area burned is larger than South Korea and 46% larger than the area burned in the Amazon in 2019. Sydney’s air quality became a health risk, and parts of the nation’s capital Canberra had to be evacuated at one point. The Australian army was called to assist firefighters, and the navy evacuated people by sea from coastal communities cut off by fire. The New York Times reported the estimated cost to Australia’s economy to be between $3 and $3.5 billion.

Climate Change and Wildfires in Australia

Several researchers have found that projected climate changes show a trend towards more dangerous fire weather conditions in Australia. The year 2019 was the hottest year on record for Australia. (See Figure 2.) The average daytime maximum temperature in Australia was reportedly 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Australia’s average rainfall in 2019 was the lowest since records began in 1900 and was 40% less than normal. 2019 was also the first year that the hottest and driest years in Australia overlapped.

The Australian government reports that their Forest Fire Danger Index has increased at 16 of 38 sites over the period from 1973 to 2010. According to the Australian government, surface temperatures over land and surrounding seas increased by 3.2℉ since the beginning of the 20th century. The frequency of very warm months has increased, as has average rainfall. More frequent extreme heat and flooding events raise risks to human health and to livestock production. Sea levels vary significantly year-to-year, mostly associated with natural variability, though the rising trend is less than the global average sea level rise. According to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, “[c]limate change is the greatest threat to the Great Barrier Reef” due to bleaching during high temperature episodes and severe weather. Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment has found that “Australia faces significant environmental and economic impacts from climate change across a number of sectors.”

The Fires' Effect on Political Debate

These developments, particularly the recent fires, appear to be affecting Australians’ attitudes towards climate change. According to a 2019 Lowy poll, Australians ranked climate change as the first of ten possible threats to Australia’s vital interests over the next ten years, and 64% of those polled view climate change as a “critical threat.” This was an increase of six percentage points from 2018 and an 18 point rise since 2014. The Lowy poll also found that 59% of Australians polled believe the opposition Labor Party would do a better job of managing Australia’s response to climate change than the Coalition.

Prime Minister Morrison appears to some analysts to have won the May 2019 election in part because he emphasized the costs of climate action rather than the threat from climate change itself. However, the fires of 2019 and 2020 may have shifted many Australians’ perceptions of the relative costs. According to a News poll, Morrison’s approval rating dropped 8 points from December 2019 to January 2020.

The fires appear to have reignited past debates within the Liberal-National Coalition on climate change policy. In December 2019, the New South Wales Young Liberals called on the government to make changes to address the “extraordinary challenges presented by human-induced climate change.” In February 2020, Morrison reportedly faced opposition from within the Coalition party room over his government’s climate change policy. Several Coalition Members of Parliament (MP) reportedly argued that the Coalition should embrace more ambitious climate change action. A Liberal MP’s February 2020 proposal to establish a dedicated climate change minister was reportedly opposed by National Party members and hardline Liberals. In February 2020, two other Liberal MPs declared that the government should not support new coal-fired power stations. Others argued against adopting “reactionary” climate policies in response to the bushfire crisis.

By January 2020, Morrison, who had previously appeared reluctant to discuss the link between climate change and the fires, stated that the government could evolve its policies in order to reduce emissions but without putting additional costs on Australians or risking hurting resource industries.

Current opposition Labor Party Leader Anthony Albanese has emphasized the need to create clean energy jobs while advocating for a low carbon future. The Labor Party favors more aggressive emissions reductions targets and has reaffirmed its commitment to reach zero net emissions by 2050. The Australia Greens party has called for Australia to become a leader in climate action while developing a renewable energy economy. Greens Parliamentary Leader Adam Bandt reportedly will advocate for a Green New Deal and would phase out fossil fuel extraction in Australia.

Skipping a few paragraphs...

U.S. Linkages

The increasing intensity of Australia’s fire season and resulting political challenges have direct and indirect impacts on the United States. For example, the United States, Australia, and New Zealand have exchanged firefighting assistance for many years. In 2019, U.S. Department of the Interior and U.S. Forest Service wildfire personnel were sent to Australia to assist with wildfire suppression. In addition, three American firefighters working for Coulson Aviation, a private contractor, were killed when their air tanker crashed while on a fire fighting mission in Australia. In 2018, Australian and New Zealand wildfire management personnel were sent to assist with wildfire suppression in California. As fire seasons lengthen and grow in intensity, increased demand for this shared capability may strain existing capabilities.

Australia’s experience with the political debate over costs of mitigation vs. risk of continued climate change may help inform Congress’ deliberations over how to address the issue. While the risks and the drivers may be different, intensifying wildfire seasons also are a U.S. concern. For example, an April 2019 report from California Governor Gavin Newsom’s strike force office on “Wildfires and Climate Change” found that “climate change is a core driver of heightened wildfire risk.”

Lots packed into a small space - be sure to read the material I skipped.

Enjoy!

"Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power." - Abraham Lincoln

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