Everyone's a winner

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The record industry is in terminal decline, yet
Australian Idol is making millions from music. What gives?
By Karl Quinn.

Last Sunday was a big night for Casey Donovan. It was the night
she finally got to go home. "I slept in my own bed for the first
time in three weeks," says the 16-year-old who will tonight take
the stage of the Sydney Opera House for the final concert in this
year's Australian Idol . The live broadcast of the concert
- a battle of the westies, in which the girl from Sydney's Bass
Hill faces 21-year-old Anthony Callea from Melbourne's Sanctuary
Lakes - is expected to attract more than 3.5 million viewers,
making it the most-watched program of the year. On offer is a
recording contract with BMG and an almost-guaranteed No. 1 single
and album.

But for Donovan, it was the simple things that were foremost in
her mind when the show wrapped after 17 weeks. She "gave a sigh of
relief", she says, when she left the studio on Sunday night, glad
that she'd made it through and that this part of the ordeal was
finally over. She started the rest of her life on Monday with a
little treat. "I had Macca's for breakfast," she says, "a
bacon-and-egg McMuffin. It was great."

It's just as well Donovan is taking the opportunity to savour
her last moments before the concert because, win or lose, after
tonight nothing will ever be the same again. Are you prepared for
what comes next, asks Preview ? "No, but I can try to be,"
she says. "We haven't really had coaching about what to expect but
they keep saying, 'Get some rest now, because you won't sleep for
the next couple of years'."

It may sound like a joke, but it's not really. According to
Andrew Kirk, of public relations consultancy Hill and Knowlton,
nothing can prepare the Idol finalists for the barrage of scrutiny
they can expect from tomorrow. "I don't think they realise what
it's going to be like," says Kirk. "They've had a taste of it, but
every single one of the media outlets in this country is going to
want a little piece of them. You have to remember that six months
ago they were just young kids queueing with thousands of others for
a chance at this thing, and from tomorrow, whoever wins will be
among the most famous people in Australia."

People are voting just for the thrill of voting ... They don't get anything back from it, just enjoyment. The record business still hasn't got people to do anything like that."- Mark Holden

But surely this is precisely what they've wanted all along, what
they've dreamt of? Donovan tells Preview that even as a little
child, she practised her autograph endlessly in anticipation of the
day she'd be famous (she adds that the version she signs now is
nothing like the one she perfected then, "because it just took too
long to sign").

"Sure, but the dream of being a star is very different to the
reality," says Kirk. "It never stops. You're in and out of cars,
going from photo shoot to photo shoot, radio station to radio
station. Singing becomes only a small part of what you do. Look at
Guy Sebastian: he's just doing his first Australian tour. That's
amazing. It means that, really, he's been profiling for a year
rather than touring."

In a way, that's hardly surprising. Guy Sebastian the touring
artist will probably do very nicely, but his record company, BMG,
won't see much of a cut of the proceeds. And having invested all
that time, money and faith in the 21st-century version of A&R
(artist and repertoire, the arm of the record-company business that
traditionally scouts for talent), BMG can be forgiven for trying to
milk every last opportunity to hawk Sebastian's album to the
record-buying public.

It worked, too. His debut, Just As I Am, has sold
480,000 copies. Last year's Idol runner-up Shannon Noll
has done well, too, selling 340,000 copies of his album. All up,
BMG shifted 2 million units of Idol-related merchandise - singles,
albums, DVDs - last year, with a total value of $30 million.

But BMG isn't the only winner from Australian Idol.
Finance journalist Neil Shoebridge recently wrote in the
Australian Financial Review that Channel 10 had earned an
estimated $25 million from this series of Idol - $3 million each
coming from "sponsors" Telstra, McDonald's, Sony, L'Oreal, Nestle
and Mazda, and the remaining $7 million from other advertisers.
Thirty-second advertising slots for tonight's final were reportedly
auctioned for $62,500 apiece.

But Ten pays a hefty price for the chance to make all this
money. The rights to this year's series were bought for a reported
$20 million. Ten has also bought the rights to broadcast the new
spin-off series The X Factor for somewhere between $15 and
$30 million. The big winner here is Grundy Entertainment, which
produces the show for Ten. The formerly Australian company Grundy
is now owned by Fremantle Media, which initially developed the
format in the UK as Pop Idol , in partnership with 19, the
entertainment production company founded by Simon Fuller, the man
who created the Spice Girls. It's a tangled web, but one that spins
enormous profits for all involved.

"This particular group of companies that has come together on
Idol , they've maxed it," says Mark Holden, the
singer-turned-actor-turned songwriter-turned-producer-turned-Idol
judge. "At a time when the record business is imploding and not
coping with the huge technological changes it faces, this alignment
of companies is just kicking huge goals."

How does it feel to be part of that? "It's fantastic. I'm not
especially familiar with the (revenue) numbers, but they're all
good."

One of the keys to the show's success, Holden believes, is that
it has tapped into a level of engagement with the audience that the
music industry - under siege from free downloads, CD burning and
file swapping - can only dream of. "People are voting just for the
thrill of voting," he says. "They don't get anything back from it,
just enjoyment. The record business still hasn't got people to do
anything like that."

But the interactive telecommunications business certainly has.
Precisely how many phone calls and SMS messages are received by
Legion Interactive is heavily guarded information but, in an
oft-quoted figure, departing Idol judge Ian Dickson let
slip last November that one episode had drawn 1.4 million calls.
The website of Fremantle Media (www.fremantlemedia.com) claims that
"to date the (Idol ) format has been enjoyed by over 100
million viewers around the world, while more than 500 million votes
have been cast by members of the public". Meanwhile, the website of
Simon Fuller's company 19 (www.19.co.uk) proudly boasts that "an
incredible 65 million votes were cast in the American Idol 3 final
in May 2004", watched by 28.8 million viewers.

If Australian voting follows a similar pattern, Legion
Interactive could expect to receive about 7.9 million calls and
messages and at 55 cents a pop, that adds up to a lot of loose
change. About $4.3 million, in fact.

If, as the critics contend, Idol is just another talent show,
there's no question that Australian viewers have taken to the
format like never before. Recent episodes have pulled around 2.3
million viewers a week, giving Ten a 50 per cent-plus share of the
commercial viewing audience. Last year's final drew 3.3 million
viewers; this year's is expected to top that, with 3.5 million set
to tune in tonight. But what is it they're hoping to see? The
favourite romping home or an upset?

Ever since Anthony Callea sang The Prayer (originally
recorded by Andrea Bocelli and Celine Dion) on October 3, he has
been regarded as a sure thing for the final. Last week, Centrebet
was offering $1.40 on the 158-centimetre pocket dynamo, against
$2.70 for Donovan (down from $4 prior to last Sunday's show).

Callea certainly looks ready to accept the crown. He's been in
training for this moment most of his life. He began singing and
dancing classes aged five, studying at the Johnny Young Talent
School. At 18, he worked with Mark Holden, who as an Idol
judge disparagingly dubbed him "the plastic fantastic".

"We just did some song-writing together," Callea says of his
time with Holden. "It didn't really amount to much. It was at the
time when Vanessa Amorosi was becoming huge, and his attention was
kind of elsewhere."

Over the course of Idol , Callea has, in his own
estimation, grown enormously. "My performances have really
changed," he tells Preview. "I've really learnt how to deliver a
song." But on the personal front, he says, "I'm still the same I
ever was".

There are certainly no rough edges on Callea, but that
smoothness may be as much a liability as an asset. "If Casey wins,
it will be because she has won Australia's hearts, and what more
can you ask for as a marketer?" says Mark Holden. And what of
Callea? "If Anthony wins," Holden says, "it will be because he's
earnt it".

One of the words that has been bandied around a lot in
discussion of this year's Idol is "journey". Donovan's journey has
been remarkable, and has occurred over the course of the series:
she's gone from troubled teen with attitude from a low-income,
single-parent household to genuine potential star in just a few
months. By contrast, Callea's journey had already happened: he
arrived on the set of Idol fully formed, the polished product of
relentless hours of rehearsal and repetition. That may make him
more suited to the pop industry than Donovan, but it doesn't
necessarily make for a compelling story. After all, it's hardly a
fairytale if Cinderella starts off with the glass slippers and ball
gown, is it?

But there are plenty of people who wonder if winning
Australian Idol would actually be a good thing for Casey
Donovan. She is, after all, only 16. Is she ready for the
relentless demands and exposure she would face? She is headstrong,
opinionated, outspoken qualities that have endeared her to a large
chunk of the viewing and voting public, but not qualities
especially treasured by the pop industry machine. It must also be
said that she is a large girl who would be subjected to the cruel
scrutiny of a media as fixated on weight as it is on celebrity.

Arguably, coming second would be the better result for Donovan.
"If she wins, she will have to make a record in nine days that will
not represent who she is," says Holden. "Coming second would give
her more time." (Holden adds: "But I hope Casey wins".)

According to agent Tony Grace-Guerrera, who represents several
of last year's finalists, whether they win or lose, those who've
made it to the final stages of Idol have a massive opportunity to
build a career. "It doesn't just open doors, mate, it opens roller
doors."

Those doors don't stay open long, though. "They've got to move
quick," Grace-Guerrera says. "They have to listen to and work with
the support people around them and deliver a good album, but more
importantly, it's up to them to get out there and market it."

"The thing with Idol is you're given this great opportunity from
the start of having this ready-made fan base, and a huge one,
that's going to buy your record," last year's runner-up, Shannon
Noll, told The Sunday Age earlier this year. "Then it's up
to the individual to go out and cement those people as fans for the
rest of their career."

Last year's Idol was generous not only to Sebastian and Noll but
also to other finalists. Millsy and Paulini landed album deals,
Courtney Act released a single through BMG and Cosima De Vito
released an album on her own label, after her parents took out a
reported $1 million mortgage to finance it (Cosima currently sits
at no 48 on the ARIA album chart after five weeks on release).

Of this year's crop, Holden fancies Courtney Murphy to go on to
good things - "If he and James Morrison don't do an album together,
they're both insane" - and can see Chanel Cole, Ricki-Lee Coulter
and Amali Ward securing record deals. But as an insider at BMG puts
it, there are no guarantees not even for tonight's runner-up.
"Neither of them should take it for granted that we will sign the
runner-up this year."

She adds that there is a possibility that the success of last
year's non-winning finalists might have set unrealistic
expectations for this year's crop. "Maybe they're just a little too
relaxed about what will happen. Who knows who will be signed and
who won't?" And, she might have added, who knows if, once they're
signed, it's really the right choice?

In theory, what the Idol format represents is a heavily
workshopped market-research and marketing campaign rolled into one.
By the time the winner is selected, they have a fan base eager to
buy a record as soon as it can be delivered. (Tonight's winner will
go into the studio on Tuesday, lay vocal tracks for 12 songs over
the next nine days, mastering will begin on December 6 and the
album will be in store by December 13, just in time for the
Christmas rush.

But what if the plan goes wrong? What if the winner gets over
the line as a result of factors that don't readily translate to
record sales? It could happen. In fact, it has happened.

Michelle McManus, a beefy travel agent from Glasgow, won series
two of the UK's Pop Idol in 2003, spurred by what was
described as a large "sympathy vote". Her victory prompted judge
Pete Waterman to stomp off the set in disgust; the man who launched
Kylie Minogue's pop career had labelled the idea of McManus
becoming a pop star "a joke"

As it turned out, he was right. Though her debut single hit No.
1 in the UK, the album that followed peaked at No. 12 and her
second single could manage only a lowly 16 on the chart. Now, it
looks like McManus's brief career is over. Such a cruel fate seems
unlikely to await either of tonight's finalists. Certainly, it's
the farthest thing from Callea's mind. He felt unusually nervous,
he says, going into last Sunday's head-to-head show. But now the
end is in sight, he's back on track. "The ultimate thing to do
obviously is win it, and it's so close to the finish line now that
that's all I'm focused on."

As for Donovan, if the music career doesn't pan out, she has
some other ambitions in mind. A couple of weeks ago, the year 11
student asked permission to drop out of her tutored lessons as the
Idol pressure and media attention mounted. One day, though, she'd
like to go back to school. "It really matters to me quite a lot,
because not many people in my family have finished high school. I
was going to drop out in year 10, but then I kind of thought,
'Well, what else am I going to do?'"

Whatever happens tonight, she at least knows the answer to that
question now.

Australian Idol is on Channel 10 from 7.30pm
tonight

Idol by numbers

Number of people who turned up for auditions for this year's
Australian Idol competition: 50,000

Number who made it to the first cut: 100

Number of finalists: 12, including two "wild cards" selected by
the judges despite failing to earn voter support

one of whom was Anthony Callea

Audience for last year's final: 3.3 million

Expected audience for tonight's final: 3.5 million

Number of Idol-related "units" (singles, albums, DVDs) sold by
BMG on the back of last year's competition: 2 million

Value of those units: $30 million

Price Channel 10 paid for the rights to this year's series of
Australian Idol: $20 million

Revenue for Channel 10 from advertising and sponsorship during
this year's series: $25 million

Number of viewers for the final episode of American Idol 3 in
May this year: 28.8 million

Number of votes cast during that two-hour final: 65
million

Number of votes that would amount to if the same pattern
applied here: 7.9 million

The telephone revenue that would amount to (at 55 cents a
call): $4.3 million

Never mind the idols, here's Malcolm McLarenMalcolm McLaren, the man behind the Sex Pistols, has come
up with the perfect antidote to Idolmania. The self-proclaimed
svengali of punk wants to produce an "anti-Idol", a
not-very-much-talent quest that would highlight the sort of
qualities the straight Idol overlooks.

"You have to choose the worst, not the best," McLaren told
reporter Senay Boztas of Scottish newspaper the Sunday Herald
recently. He claimed he wanted to make "the worthless valuable" and
"ugliness beautiful", and aimed to create "a program that Tony
Blair would switch off immediately".

McLaren, who is based in Paris, is reportedly in discussion with
the UK's Granada Television to develop a show or shows that invert
the Idol formula.

"We thought Malcolm was an interesting character and wondered
what we could do with him, roughly 30 years after he put the Sex
Pistols on the map," said Mark Cowley, a development executive at
Granada. "The proposal isn't written yet, but we've had a chat with
him, and we will meet again later in the year."

McLaren's career as a manager/impresario has also included
stints with Boy George, Adam Ant, Bow Wow Wow and The New York
Dolls, while his biggest success as a recording artist came with
the song Buffalo Gals in 1984.

If his anti-Idol idea does get off the ground, McLaren can only
hope it meets with a fraction of the success that has greeted Simon
Cowell, co-creator of the real Idol. Cowell appears on television
in the Dicko role on American Idol, the UK's Pop
Idol and spin-off The X Factor .

The Australian rights to The X Factor were recently
purchased by Channel 10 for an undisclosed amount rumoured to be
somewhere between $15 million and $30 million. Either way, even
Malcolm McLaren would judge that a truly great rock'n'roll
swindle.