Biden woos China’s next leader

Joe Biden, centre, and US ambassador Gary Locke, right, at a meeting inside Beijing’s Great Hall of the People.
Photo AFP

by
Robert Guy

Joe Biden
’s first stop after landing in Beijing earlier this week was a surprise drop in to a basketball game between the visiting Georgetown Hoyas and the Shanxi Zhongyu Brave Dragons.

Accompanied by the new US ambassador to China, Gary Locke, the US Vice-President cheered on the college team from Washington in a made-for-television moment where American and Chinese teams engaged in “friendly" competition, with victory eventually going to the Hoyas.

Fast forward 24 hours, with Biden and the television crews gone, the Hoyas next game against the Bayi Rockets degenerated into a bench- clearing free-for-all, with fists – and chairs – thrown in a fourth quarter conflagration that left both sides looking like losers.

Basketball may be less cerebral than high-level diplomacy but there was plenty of gamesmanship on show during the week as Biden met Chinese leaders in the latest play in the long game of geopolitical and economic jockeying between the world’s largest economy and dominant military power and the Asian giant set to rival it for supremacy in the 21st century.

In front of television cameras, it was all smiles and platitudes in Biden’s meetings with Chinese President
Hu Jintao
and his mooted successor Vice-President Xi Jinping.

But beneath the pleasantries, relations remain dogged by numerous stress points whose resolution, well away from the cameras , will determine whether the two heavyweights can work together and peacefully co-exist over the coming decades, or if mishandled could lead to an escalation of Sino-US tensions that extend well beyond the confines of a Beijing basketball court with costs to both sides.

“US-China relations are very complicated," Jin Canrong, deputy dean of the school of international relations at Renmin University, tells the Weekend Financial Review. “It’s not east easy to make it [the relationship] stable." Both sides have endeavoured to build trust in a relationship that has endured ups and downs over recent years.

Biden’s visit will lay the groundwork for Xi’s visit to the US later this year, following Hu’s visit to Washington earlier this year. China has also resumed military-to-military contacts after suspending them when Washington angered Beijing with a deal to supply arms to Taiwan. The sale of US military technology to what some Chinese view as a “renegade province" is one of many pressure points.

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Other stresses are the security of China’s $US1.17 trillion holding of US government debt and Washington’s ability to deal with its burgeoning fiscal challenges and revive its faltering economy.

From the US side, there are increasing concerns in Washington and among its western Pacific allies about the modernisation of China’s military, especially the development of a “blue water" navy with the capacity to project Chinese power deep into areas long dominated by the US Navy.

There is also the perceived undervaluation of China’s currency, the yuan, which is seen to give its exporters an unfair advantage.

While the two countries may share common interests in securing a prosperous and peaceful future, there remains a divide in values on issues such as human rights.

While the high level meetings provide an opportunity for open dialogue on key issues, some Chinese experts question whether they can deliver meaningful outcomes on long standing issuesAs the largest foreign holder of US government debt, Beijing is keenly interested in the internal US political debate about the course needed to remedy the country’s woeful fiscal position.

“It is good to have a high level meeting mechanism," says Professor Shen Dingli, vice dean of the Institute of International Affairs at Fudan University.

“Opinions of both sides will be exchanged, but problems won’t be resolved".

A key focus of Biden’s was reassuring the Chinese about the US economy.

No Chinese leaders openly commented on the bipartisan fracas on Capitol Hill over raising the debt ceiling or the downgrading of the US credit rating from triple-A, but the strident commentary from China’s state-backed media about the US “debt bomb", its “addiction" to debt, and China’s “right" to demand changes would have left Washington in no doubt about Beijing’s concerns.

Some Chinese retain faith in the US government to right the economy – Xi said the US economy was “resilient" – but they are more concerned about the signals the bipartisan bickering send about the ability of the US political process to confront and deal with the challenges facing the nation. “From a long run viewpoint, the credit worthiness of US Treasury bonds depends on whether US political leaders can really put partisan interests aside to find a solution," says Jin.

“If they keep fighting then that will lead to the real distrust of their capability to resolve their economic challenges".

Biden and Xi made the right noises about working more closely and building trust. Biden reportedly said in their meeting that “foreign policy is more than just conducting diplomacy, it’s establishing connections between leaders and governments based on the mutual interest to get things done".

Biden’s travels through China will take him to the inner city of Chengdu in Sichuan province, and will provide him with a lot of time with the likely next president, and also allow a deeper appreciation of what many see as true China.

Experts applauded Biden’s decision to visit the fast-growing second-tier city in central China, saying he will gain an appreciation of Beijing’s focus on broadening development from the coastal provinces to those in central and western China.

“To know more about inner China that means a better under standing of China," says Professor Jin.

While broadening his knowledge of China’s economy will be a key takeaway for Biden, his priority will be to get a better understanding of Xi who is set to take over in the transition to the “sixth generation" of leaders, which begins later this year. Xi is a “princeling", one of the elite who rose to prominence in politics and business off the revolutionary pedigree of their parents.

Biden will be keen to gain a clearer picture of his ideals and vision for China and its relations with the US, but more importantly whether he is open to forging a cooperative relationship that serves to benefit both countries.

However, experts warn that US policymakers should not place too much hope in the change in leadership. A new leader does not equate to a new approach to international relations.

“Usually the policy continuation in China is better than that of the US. There is more policy continuity than policy change," Jin says.

“There is no sign that the next generation of leaders will take a different approach. I think there will be more continuity than change."