Additional Fed Moves Will PO our Trading Partners

When the US prints money, our trading partners are forced to do so as well in order to keep the value of their own currencies stable against the dollar. If they were to permit their currencies to rise, they would lose valuable export dollars. China, in particular, plays this game well. The problem with this is that easing to mimic the dollar imports the American monetary policy whether you like it or not. Currently, food inflation is a big deal in the less developed countries of the world. This calls for a tight monetary policy, but this cannot be deployed because the local currency would appreciate. Therefore, in today’s economic climate, the American drought plus American money printing lead to food inflation.

If you divide the figures for any country by 8, you get a number which shows the effect of food prices on the nation’s inflation rate relative to the US. Poland is the easiest example because its number is 24. Now, divide 24 by the US 8 and we get 3. Therefore, food price rises in Poland will raise their inflation rate 3 times more than a comparable rise in the US. The number is 4 for China, and a whopping 6 for India. Food shortages have led to riots and the Arab Spring, so perhaps the Fed should be careful before unleashing more unrest in the world with it money printing.