Nothing but hope left for Syria

When Barack Obama met Vladimir Putin as part of the G8 talks in Northern Ireland, he must have thought there are better ways of spending time at a golf resort than discussing the Syrian conflict with the Russian president.

Obama is a golf tragic. Well, a basketball tragic first and a keen golfer second whereas the man they call Rootin’-Tootin’ Putin might find the game a little sedate for his liking. The bear-wrasslin’ Putin would probably favour shotgun golf, a game invented by Hunter S. Thompson (with Bill Murray as his consultant) a year before his death.

When the two leaders held a press conference yesterday, the images spoke for themselves. I haven’t seen body language so bad since the last time the Melbourne Demons held a press conference. Alright, that was yesterday, too, when the Dees sacked their coach. Again.

Both Obama and Putin slouched in their chairs. When Obama spoke, Putin glanced around the room before staring at his feet. When Putin spoke, Obama took the opportunity to examine the paint work on the ceiling.

It was a stark reminder of the gulf between not just the two nations but between the West and Russia or “G7 plus one” as Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper described it.

Last Sunday, Putin met British Prime Minister, David Cameron at Downing Street. At the press conference afterwards, Cameron described Syrian President, Basher al-Assad as “a murderous dictator”. Putin’s eyes rolled upwards and it was his turn to contemplate whether the ceiling could do with a coat of flat matte.

When it came time for him to speak, Putin did not hold back.

“Who’s to blame? I believe you will not deny the fact that one should hardly back those who kill their enemies and eat their organs. Do you want to support these people? Do you want to supply arms to these people? This case has hardly any relation to the communitarian and cultural values that Europe has been professing for centuries. In Russia we cannot bear to see such things happening.”

Putin was referring to one of the worst images to have emerged from the Syrian conflict, a fighter known as Abu Sakkar from the Free Syria’s Independent Omar al-Farouq brigade mutilating the corpse of a pro-government fighter. Russia holds key strategic interests in Syria, and for Putin this appalling incident was propaganda gold.

Since the Syrian civil war began in March 2011, an estimated 93,000 people have been killed with 1.5 million fleeing the fighting, creating an ongoing humanitarian crisis. The threat of escalation beyond Syria’s borders remains ever present. The Russians and Hezbollah, based in Lebanon but funded by Iran, provide arms, aid and comfort to the Assad regime while the US and the West arms the Free Syrian Army which fights alongside Jabhal al-Nusra, a jihadi group of foreign fighters with close links to al-Qa’ida.

Jabhal al-Nusra has been officially designated a terrorist organisation by the US but may be an end user of US arms in this conflict.

The al-Nusra Front flies just one of the sea of black flags for the rebel movement in Syria. Others include the Syrian Islamic Front, Ghuraba al-Sham and Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn, better known as al-Qa’ida in Iraq.

The G8 minus one is right. Bashar al-Hassad is a murderous tyrant and in an ideal world, he would be wearing a pair of stainless steel bracelets and standing tall at The Hague. Similarly, Putin’s point cannot be ignored. The evolving nature of the Syrian rebel movement offers diminishing hopes of stable government and every chance of the rise to power of jihadism and Islamo-fascism in Syria.

While Putin did not raise the obvious concern, every major national security organisation in the world is horrified at the prospect of radicalised jihadis circulating around the world when the conflict in Syria finally ends – some of whom may have flown in from Australia only to return with God knows what evil in mind.

I have read some comment that call on Islam’s leading clerics to negotiate a peaceful solution but Islam and the inevitable tensions between its disparate collectives be it Alawite, Shia or Sunni are at the root cause of the fighting.

Given the viper’s nest of players on the battlefield, it would be easy for all foreign powers, including the G8 to stay out of Syria but that will simply not happen nor should it. The Russians will not quietly disburse their strategic arrangements with Assad’s regime and the West cannot bring influence to bear if it stays out of the arena.

The G8 talks have led to a confirmation of peace talks possibly in Geneva next year but there is little hope left for negotiated solutions.

While the world’s superpowers powers remain divided there is nothing but empty hope left for the people of Syria.
Comments are closed.

Your Comments

Jack, I think we’ve waited too long on this one--and that may actually have been the plan. If we had intervened in some way a few months ago, we might have saved a few lives and been able to have a relatively quick resolution. Now? Too little too late.

The small arms we’re sending won’t be enough to shift the balance of power, and given the folks we’re dealing with, don’t think heavier weapons are a good idea. And, as you point out, Putin is not about to give up a client state.

This is another front in the Sunni/Shia war that’s been going on since 632, and as much as I hate to sit back and watch it happen, outside of trying to stop it from spilling over the borders, we may not have a dog in this fight. Iran and the Saudis are the real players here.

Jack the InsiderTue 18 Jun 13 (04:59pm)

And it’s not as if the Saudis don’t have the kit to assist, Dwight. Arms length for the West. Diplomatic engagement yes and a few crates of sidearms but no further.

TracyTue 18 Jun 13 (04:14pm)

Let me see, troop withdrawals from Afghanistan (guess what’s going to happen then) Pakistan still displaying all the symptoms of a failed state. Iraq still can’t get it’s act together, same for Egypt and Tunisia. PM Erdogan in Turkey having his own problems dipping his tootsies into a little bit of Islamisation, Israel and Lebanon looking on in in case something more interesting than a football gets lobbed over the fence, there might be a bit of a game changer coming from the new chap in Iran but he’s going to keep the nuke program..........missed anyone out?

Tony NTue 18 Jun 13 (04:16pm)

Jack, there has been a lot of criticism about Obama taking sides in the Syrian conflict. From my understanding the use by Assad of Sarin gas has been the game changer.

As letting this go unchallenged would open the door to other states to go down this path I feel that the US had no option. If this is tolerated how long before tactical nuclear weapons cease to be an unthinkable option?

Obama is trying to get Putin onside as Russia would also have a stake in the non-proliferation or use of chemical weapons. Do you, or anyone here have a position on this?

Jack the InsiderTue 18 Jun 13 (05:04pm)

There are a whole range of unpalatable scenarios, Tony. My view is that backing a winner here may not end well for the region or for US interests. The US must engage and the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime - unconfirmed but probable if reports are anything to go by was the game changer. Still US aid for the free Syria movement needs to be judicious and restrained as it has been.

PATRIOTTue 18 Jun 13 (04:56pm)

Gday Jack, I have a bit of “experience” in that part of the world and it is a difficult one for people who don’t know the region to understand. The main problem and concern for western countries is if you have only one percent of the input into any situation, even with the best intentions in the world, and things go bad the locals will give you the outsider 100 per cent of the blame. Then if you do nothing it’s “why didn’t you help”. Dammed if you do and dammed if you don’t, hence why western governments seem to sit on the fence so much. A very complex place and with all the differing loyalties an absolute vipers pit for the west, best stay out of this one I reckon.

Jack the InsiderTue 18 Jun 13 (05:11pm)

I suspect you’re right, Patriot. So the answer is to support and fund the humanitarian needs above all else.

IsabellaTue 18 Jun 13 (05:15pm)

The West, from the British Empire onwards, and most recently most deeply the American Empire, have interfered in the Middle east with nothing but bad returns for the people who live there. List of deaths since USA started meddling of Iraqis, Afghans, Libyans et al .. go on and on. Drones kill women and children, bombing runs murder wedding guests… it’s a horror that needs ending, not escalating.

Rumours and theories abound - the why’s and wherefor’s. No fly zones over Libya which end up being bombing runs to defeat a leader whose position was no business of anyone but the people of the country.

Is it because America wants to dominate the “petro-dollar” countries?. To ensure its domination of world currency and events? Is it part of an ongoing battle between America and Russia with Chinese interest thrown in? Who knows??

Hard for our meddling, interfering, arrogant “we know best” Western ruling elite to accept, but the West needs to stay out of the place entirely. Leave those who live there to decide their own fate. And that includes secret arms caches from one of the Alphabet soup groups out of USA.

The Bow-Legged SwantoonTue 18 Jun 13 (05:33pm)

The Israelis and the Russians have experience in building big walls. Get them together, build a big wall right around the joint, toss a pile of weaponry over it, sit back and wait.

AndrewTue 18 Jun 13 (05:47pm)

Like Patriot, I spent a few years bouncing around the area. Working for one of the UN agencies, based in Jordan - but also in Syria, Lebanon, West Bank and Gaza Strip.
There are tensions bubbling away there that are centuries old. What does the West do here?

Oppose the Assad regime seems an easy enough statement to make - but how?

Supporting the opposition? whole new can of worms there. Supporting them isn’t guaranteed to lead to a stable government, let alone a democracy!

And all along, some of the poorest people in the region suffer , regardless of who is doing the fighting.

Jean BaptisteTue 18 Jun 13 (06:21pm)

The great thing about the internet it is so easy to access different news services.
Read an interesting essay by Tahir Mustafa “Beyond The Noisy Headlines, Syria The Real Story.” If anyone is interested in hearing what others have to say.

Bill GrieveTue 18 Jun 13 (06:49pm)

Who is on who’s side here,who are the good guys and who are the bad guys,can you tell me that....
Seems to me the USA always supports the good guys and Russia goes for the bad guys.

Jack the InsiderTue 18 Jun 13 (06:57pm)

They’re almost all bad guys, Bill. That’s what makes it so hard.

JohnnoTue 18 Jun 13 (07:03pm)

The older I get, the more dissillusioned I am in regard to what we are collectively as human beings. Whether Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan or Rwanda, elements of us as human beings and their total lack of regard for others is endemic. Of course, some would argue this has always been the case. I just don’t get it, in fact I despair for us as a species. The immorality of arms dealings, whether it’s trading to our ‘friends’ or ‘enemies’ is just senseless and wrong. It fills the coffers of the dealers who never want these conflicts to end. Why isn’t there an embargo on arms for both sides?

I like and admire Ban ki Moon, but this conflict highlights just how ineffective and hopeless the UN is.

Solutions? Can’t see any where both sides think it’s the norm and admirable to kill to win a cause.

PennyTue 18 Jun 13 (07:20pm)

This is an interesting column Jack and you’ve covered the situation well (God I sound like I’m giving feedback to one of my students but you know what I mean) . From my observations having lived in the Middle East, and all that ,I know that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait want Assad to fail, but aren’t going to “interfere”. Apart from Hezbollah support, Assad is also loathed in Lebanon. I would personally like to see him strung up because of the suffering he has caused the Syrian people.....but you know I don’t feel comfortable with the US offering support to the rebels, as I’m not sure they’re much better. I have a very good young Syrian friend, he has to write to me in some kind of code (and he lives in Germany)......he is full of despair for his country, would shoot Assad himself if he could, but even he doesn’t think the opposition rebels are the solution

Jack the InsiderTue 18 Jun 13 (07:40pm)

It would be preferable if the Saudis did get more involved, Penny but with Russia’s strategic interests including a naval base in the Mediterranean, this is reminiscent of Cold War politics and regional players are likely to defer for a host of regions. In trying to come to a conclusion in the article, I could see no hope. The humanitarian crisis will worsen. This is a very bad situation that can only get worse.

Best to let Putin have his way on this one. It’s not a zero sum game and just maybe Obama’s people are mature enough to realize that. The Russian leader’s alma mater, formerly the KGB, has an even more stellar record of sheer incompetence than the CIA. No doubt they’ll end up antagonizing Turkey just to spice up the pot and sooner or later the various ‘stans wil get an oar in too. It will end up another Caspian and Caucasus all in brawl with Afghanistan as the end role country model for the lot of them. Should keep ‘em all busy for the next century or so unless they start lobbing nukes at each other. The west should just focus on solving the Israel issue - surely we could find a new location for that country. Why not slice off a corner of Venezuela for them, or make them a gift of Haiti. If all else fails there is always Christmas Island, not to mention Greenland if Global Warming really takes off. But for heavens sake, let’s stay the hell out of Syria.

Carl on the CoastTue 18 Jun 13 (08:26pm)

Jack the Insider

A most difficult and complex topic Jack, and if I may say so, you have managed it well.

With the seemingly never-ending uprisings and religious based battles occurring throughout the Middle East; with all the internecine hatred, bloodshed and brutality on show almost daily, it’s understandable that the world leaders assembled at the G8 seem confounded as they struggle to reach a compromise on how best to end the conflict.

It’s no wonder they look to the heavens for an answer. It’s no wonder, in their agonising, they may ponder the “flat matte” ceiling paint.

But I doubt their gaze will ever fall upon gloss matte.

(Sorry Jack, a momentary lapse from the mayhem and madness).

MiltonTue 18 Jun 13 (08:33pm)

With Russian interests and US interests and others, Syria sounds like a female still trying to determine her own identity, whilst being pursued/seduced by a couple of jocks.
An analogy folks, nothing sexist!
With my slim knowledge, the US rarely seems to get these things right and Russia has lost a lot of its real estate of late (whatever that suggests). How do the new empires/imperialists/democracies/ G8’s/Arab royalty/the Duponts et al, etc navigate the fall of USSR style cold war communism; an enlivened or dynamic and seemingly an internally discordant Islam; the return of China as a dominant economy; and a west that has sponsored a capitalism with a version of a social(ism) democracy and experiencing its own internal spiritual, material and ethical discord?
&
JB, chill pills champ/sport, was only having what I thought was a light hearted dig, which I figured you would naturally intuit. Go figure!

IsabellaTue 18 Jun 13 (08:37pm)

“Jack the Insider
Tue 18 Jun 13 (06:40pm)
This is a very bad situation that can only get worse.”

Jack, from my reading from several overseas sites, especially USA ones, there are suggestions this could be a modern day Serbia - a tip into another world war.
Does it look that bad to you?

Jack the InsiderTue 18 Jun 13 (09:02pm)

No scenario could be ruled out, Isabella but more likely is the threat of escalation into a wider regional conflict. As it stands, a bloody, long standing civil war is bad enough.

RobinTue 18 Jun 13 (09:14pm)

There is only one sure thing about this shitfight. No matter who wins the people will be the losers. The rebels are not what you would call exemplary when it comes to human rights. As for the government it is condemned by its record. As far as I can see any interference by outsiders will bring no benefit to anyone.

MiltonTue 18 Jun 13 (09:27pm)

Would like to see Australia make a couple of strikes on Iraq in the very near future!

Jack the InsiderTue 18 Jun 13 (10:33pm)

Just the one needed. Josh Kennedy’s header into the corner in the 85th minute. Tense viewing. The Socceroos are off to the World Cup for the third time in a row. Not a bad effort that.

Rhys NeedhamTue 18 Jun 13 (09:33pm)

Syria’s going to get ugly before it gets better, I think. Think Bosnia crossed with Afghanistan in the ‘80s crossed with Iraq and those West African conflicts of the ‘90s and the Lebanese Civil War and I think that might be something of what it’s going to end up like. Chechnya, too, probably. The place was basically destroyed and the Russian bits of the Caucasus are even more destabilised than before.

As for the Syrian opposition to the Assad-led Ba’athists, the core has always been led by the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Bashar’s uncle (now in exile in Britain and France, and not in the Hague himself) had a good go at destroying them back in 1982 with a scorched Earth campaign against the city of Hama - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hama_massacre. 10-20,000 dead minimum. Robert Fisk might be a good go-to man on this. He reckons he was the first Western journalist on the razed ground not long afterwards.

Here’s a bit of a summary on the genesis of it all and how it’s all occurred - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war. The Ba’athists basically started it by crushing (etc.) peaceful protests against the arrest and torture (de rigeur for the Syrian Mukhabarat (intelligence agency) - the Bush Administration weren’t above extraordinary rendition to Syria) of students for daubing anti-Government graffiti on walls in the poor southern Sunni city of Daraa, and it all has spiralled out of control from there.

Obama’s either got a Baldrick-esque Cunning Plan, an actual cunning plan, or he doesn’t know what to do and who out of the Hobson’s choice in the aforesaid Alphabet soup (1,400 militias all up is one figure I’ve seen bandied around) to support. On top of all the religious and ethnic conflicts in Syria (Sunni, Shi’ite, Alawite, various Christian sects, and Druze Arabs, and the rest, plus the usually Sunni Kurds with their own long list of grievances), there’s the proxy war between the Sunni Saudis and the Gulf States and Turkey on one side, and Shi’ite Iran (and the increasingly sectarian Shi’ite Government of Iraq, plus Lebanese Hezbollah and various Marxist Palestinian rejectionist groups), etc. on the other (it’s basically a succession conflict over who should’ve succeeded the Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon Him) turned very nasty, to grossly oversimplify it all), plus the Americans, Europeans, and I don’t know what interests the Chinese have yet in Syria. Israel (and the Palestinians) also have big stakes in this, as do, especially, the dozens of sects and factions in Lebanon.

Bill Grieve
Tue 18 Jun 13 (05:49pm), not by any means. I can’t remember the full list of Americans and the West supporting ‘bad guys’, because it’s that long and tawdry.

The Russians’ main interest is that they’ve a big Mediterranean naval base at Tartus on the Syrian coast that saves them a lot of time and money for refuelling (no trips through the Dardanelles and the Black Sea, for one). An old Soviet ally, too.

By the way, before anyone asks, yes, there is oil in Syria.

PennyTue 18 Jun 13 (09:55pm)

Milton....you surely weren’t serious with your comment. You did say you had a slim knowledge of the situation and it shows. This is serious, it has nothing to do with a country trying to find it’s identity for heavens sake. It also really is nothing to do with a “discordant Islam” as you put it....there is a deep and wonderful history in Syria, only spoilt by a military coup that happened recently....if you want to talk about history in terms of the Middle East.
Bit disappointed in you , I normally enjoy your posts, but do some research on this one.

Cheers

Mr Burke and Mr HareTue 18 Jun 13 (10:54pm)

As soon as this fracking to get gas and oil out of the ground really gets going, the chaps in these warring countries will be allowed to do themselves in without the West being interested. The terrorists will then have no reasons to complain about infidels being in their countries and they will also have no money to buy weapons.

Jean BaptisteTue 18 Jun 13 (11:54pm)

It’s hard to believe that those countries funding the rebels did not seek and have the tacit approval of the US. Note the sudden elevated interest of the West when it appears the Government is gaining the upper hand. It takes a lot of money to fund rebel groups. The popular uprising just hasn’t happened and theres not enough in it for Western Oil companies, for NATO to fly the thousands of missions to destroy the Syrian defence forces a la Libya. Besides, the bear has had enough of this crap.

Putin must draw a line in the sand somewhere. If it’s not here, he knows it will be Iran. Serious stakes then. Will the Great Gamers risk it all? Probably, it’s in the DNA.
The Third World War will be a very interesting one to observe and discuss briefly.

As to the other. “Eighties?” Unforgiveable. Armand, you and Albert are afraid of my Guatamleness, my natural heat, you are afraid I am too primitive to be on stage with your little estrogen rockettes. Admit it.

MiltonTue 18 Jun 13 (11:57pm)

Penny - let me change that to skeletal knowledge. And despite the impression I have given I do not doubt that it is serious. So I apologise for a poor and ill informed analogy. But i’ll stand by my typing out loud questions, however naïve, or stupid, or both. I’m on here to listen to answers, opinions and facts, amongst all the rest of the show.

Oh the agony and ecstasy of oz soccer. I’m very happy we are going to Brazil. Wouldn’t mind going myself.

Jean BaptisteWed 19 Jun 13 (12:02am)

Mr Burke@Hare 9:54PM

Good God! You appear to be conceding that the “terrorists” do have reason to complain about infidels being in their countries.

Wonders will never cease. Is that antenna accidentally tuning into Fisk or Parenti?

gerry sinclairWed 19 Jun 13 (12:13am)

I read Tahir Mustafa and have sent a copy to someone who lives in the middle east for comment, but what puzzles me is those agreeing with USA etc supplying arms, and token arms at that (so far) to the rebels.
The way I see it Russia has created a situation where this could be over and supplying token arms will simply prolong the conflict and lead to more civilian deaths.
These messy token incursions which the USA and allies are so fond of completely contradict the rules of war laid down by Sun Tzu over 2,000 years ago which basically are the best wars to win are ones where a shot is never fired, but if you do have to engage in physical combat do absolutely everything in your power to ensure you comprehensively win.
That way at least there is result, and innocent civilians are then out of the firing line, these half hearted attempts to play at war just cost lives with no conclusive result.
Sun Tzu, Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan and William the Conqueror are all turning in their graves!

Jack the InsiderWed 19 Jun 13 (10:58am)

The Mongols are not especially loved in Syria after raiding (with the associated mass murders and looting) Aleppo and Damascus in 1260 and 1300, Gerry. Fascinating period of history. Beyond the humanitarian crisis, the living history of Syria - a large part of the the cradle of civilisation, the mosques, the churches, the artifacts are being blown to smithereens.

Jack the Insider

Jack the Insider is a highly placed, dedicated servant of the nation with close ties to leading figures in politics, business and the union movement. Jack tends to be present at crucial moments in world history, ready to grapple with huge events and give them a gentle nudge. His real identity must remain unknown for obvious reasons. Jack's new book The Insider's Guide To Power In Australia is available from Random House.