Since applying ED gives you a slight bump, is it better to apply to a higher ranked school (Chicago) that would move from "Weak Consider" to "Consider", or a lower ranked T14 (Virginia) that would change your prediction from "Consider" to "Strong Consider"?

I ask because those categorizations on LSP aren't always that helpful. You need one number at or above the median to have a shot, ED or otherwise, unless you are a URM. For example, a 170/3.5 has a great shot at UVA, but a 169/3.8 has no chance.