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Climate change: Australia faces stronger but fewer cyclones

As the US recovers from one of the most destructive hurricanes in history, Australia could soon face similar devastation with experts warning of increased severe weather phenomena.

While Australia can likely expect a reprieve in cyclone frequency in the years to come, the intensity of these coastal borne storms are expected to increase exponentially as global warming continues to manipulate the Earth’s climate.

David Karoly, Professor of Meteorology at the University of Melbourne and fellow from the Australian Research Council, said Australia will likely see less cyclones in the future, paving the way for more powerful cyclonic systems.

“This summer we will likely see more tropical cyclones than we did the previous year because of El Nino,” he told nine.com.au.

“But that’s not a result of climate change, that climate variability. However, long term we are going to see a reduction in the number of cyclones, but when they do occur they will likely be more intense.”

Prof Karoly’s comments support those of Dr Debbie Abbs from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), who in 2011 said that “despite a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones, there is a greater risk that a tropical cyclone that forms will be more severe in future”.

"Even a small increase in cyclone intensity is concerning because of the threat to life, property, industry and agriculture,” Dr Abbs said.

While destructive storms will heavily impact Australia’s coastal regions, scorching temperatures and rising sea levels will play havoc on the country in the years to come.

“Some things we do know are changing include extreme temperatures, and the frequency of heatwaves across Australia. We have seen marked increases in southern Australian and Sydney which have been associated with bushfires,” Prof Karoly said.

“Across the world more than a billion people will be subject to annual flooding, even if we do manage to stabilise temperatures. It won’t happen by 2100 but sea levels will continue to rise two to three metres above current levels. Sydney airport will be underwater.”

The university professor’s grim analysis of the future was made worse by the prospect that humanity may never be able to return global temperatures to normal levels, even with zero emissions.

“We can reduce the impact of global warming by slowing down climate change but it will be extremely difficult to return the climate to how it was 50 or 100 years ago,” he said.

“If we rely simply on natural processes it will take 1000 to 10000 years.”