In fact, these 3 class of ships (30+14+14= 58 ships) are scheduled to be replaced by a single new common modular class of 55 ships, the LCS…

Up to 55 Littoral Combat Ships, or the fatal error… Early 1990’s/2001: A initial great idea or the return to the naval littoral warfare ! In the aftermark of the cold war, with some new kind of conflicts around the world, the concept of littoral warfare resurfaced (especially the “Street-fighter” concept, a 500/800 tons fast, stealthy craft intended to dominate enemy littoral’s) rise up.

Late 2003/2004: First (bad) design choices, growth in size, toward the disaster, and pathetic hopes for up to 82 ships… By mid 2003, three preliminary designs were selected: The 3000 tons Trimaran hull from General Dynamics; the 3000 tons semi planning monohull hull from Lockheed Martin and the HCAC design from Textron Systems. By may 2004, the 2 final contenders selected was The Trimaran hull and the semi planning monohull, with the main goal to build up to 4 demonstrators ships before any final design choice.

2006/2010: The beginning of the joke ! Unfortunately, with the building of the first 2 demonstrator’s ships, some weakness (some even severe), begin to appear:

- Cost of the first 2 demonstrators ships rise even DRAMATICALY: LCS 1”Freedom”, from 220 to 637 $ million (+ 289%); LCS 2 “Independence”: from 220 to 704 $ million (+320%). This tremendous cost forces the US Navy to delayed/postponed the 2 others “demonstrators ships from 2007 to 2009. With this, one of the main advantages of the LCS, the affordability, disappeared….

- Delays, cost-overruns and even much worse (NLOS-LS) for some “combat modules”.

- The monohull design was clearly over-powered : 113 000hp for the LCS 1 “Freedom; but only 60 000hp for the LCS 2 “independence” (this difference were due to the better efficiency of the Trimaran hull design). Although with a sufficient range for littoral warfare, unfortunately a very too shorter endurance for effective long oversea deployment (1150 miles at 15 knots, 3350 miles at 18 knots for the LCS 1; and 1940 miles at 46 knots and 4300 miles at 20 knots for the LCS 2……..to compare with 4200 miles at 20 knots or 5000 miles at 18 knots for a O.H.Perry FFG).

From 2010 to late 2020’s…… Although usually a mass warships building reduce the unit cost, growing warships cost and inflation will most likely keep the cost per furthers LCS above 600+ $ million, without combat modules…A final choice about the “winning design” (to be mass built) will be taken by mid/late 2010 by the US Navy.

In Fact the US Navy expect to build 55 LCS and 64 LCS mission packages (16 ASW, 24 MCM, 24 SUW). The current LCS shipbuilding program (incorporate the US Navy 30 year shipbuilding plan 2011-2040) is this :

2 LCS (LCS 1-2) ordered by FY 2005/2006, commissioned by 2008/2010, to be retired by 2032/2035. 2 LCS (LCS 3-4) ordered by FY 2009, commissioned by 2012, to be retired by 2037. 2 LCS (LCS 5-6) ordered by FY 2010, commissioned by 2013, to be retired by 2038. 2 LCS (LCS 7-8) ordered by FY 2011, commissioned by 2014, to be retired by 2039. 3 LCS (LCS 9-11) ordered by FY 2012, commissioned by 2015, to be retired by 2040. 4 LCS (LCS 12-23) ordered each year through FY 2013-2015, commissioned by 2016/2019, to be retired by 2041/2044.3 LCS (LCS 24-35) ordered each year through FY 2016-2019, commissioned by 2019/2022, to be retired by 2044/2047.2 LCS (LCS 36-45) ordered each year through FY 2020-2024, commissioned by 2023/2026, to be retired by 2048/2051. 1-2-1-2 LCS (LCS 46-58) pattern each year through FY 2025-2033, commissioned by 2028/2036, to be retired by 2053/2061. With the first 2 newer LCS(X) (LCS 56-57) ordered by 2032 and commissioned by 2035/2036.2 LCS(X) (LCS 59-72) ordered each year through FY 2034-2040, commissioned by 2037/2043, to be retired by 2062/2068.

In fact, it is clear that despite the official 55 goal vessel requirement of the U.S. Navy, this reach, AT THE EXTREME BEST CASE (if any future budgets cuts/delays/cost overruns occurred during…….2012-2032……………), only around +/- 53 ships. Because with the current plan, the 55th LCS will be ordered by FY 2031 and commissioned by +/- 2034 (at the same time as the 1st LCS will be retired).

Toward a new LCS(X) design by earlier 2030’s With a 25 year expected service life, the 55 currently planned LCS, to be commissioned around 2009-2034, was expected to be retired by 2032/2057 and progressively replaced (doubtfully at one by one basis) by a new generation of LCS(X) by early 2030’s (or a other replacement concept ?). There are probably 2 solutions:

A newer LCS(X) (a batch/Flight II or a improved design) A radically different concept, maybe turned to the more valuable mother ship concept

In any case, the cost per copy for a future LCS(X) will be around 700+ $ million per copy (2010 estimates), but I think that by late 2020/mid 2030, final cost (with shipbuilding cost increase/inflation) reach around 1+ $ billion or even more…

Ocean Cutters (Ocean Patrol Vessels), down from 12 to only 8 by late 2010’s 12 Hamilton class national cutters (WHEC-719/726: Hamilton, Dallas, Mellon, Chase, Boutwell, Sherman, Gallatin, Morgenthau, Rush, Munro, Jarvis, Midgett). 3250 tons cutters, Commissioned by 1967/1972. Originally with +/- 25 years of service, extended through the 1990’s to 35/even 40+ years. Now totally worn out and expected to be partially replaced by only 8 new Bertholf class cutters by 2009/2020.

Up to 28 Modular ships (toward a great improvement in naval warfare) 2 Demonstrator’s ships Sea Fighter (FSF 1), 80 meters, 950 tons SWATH hull. Commissioned by 2005. Likely to be used extensively for trials and patrol boat purpose for +/- 20 years. To be retired maybe by 2025.

Swift (HSV 2), 98 meters, 1600+ tons full loaded, Hybrid catamaran. Commissioned by 2003. Likely to be retired during 2010’s and returned to civilian use.

A nearly similar but older ships (Joint Venture HSV-X1), was used for trials around 1998/2004 and retired from US Service and returned to civilian use. A another +/- similar ship (Westpac Express, HSV 4676), were loaned up to 2011. These 4 ships have served (or still serve) for extensive operational testing use. Following these tests, it was decided to acquire a standard class of more than 28 new JSHV.

Up to 28 JSHV (Joint High Speed Vessel), up to 28/41 by mid 2020’s. Modular catamaran design, able for transport/logistic/and even patrol use, relatively cheaper (+/- 160/200 $ million per ship). With 20 year service life expected, to be commissioned by +/- 2013/2025, to be retired by 2033/2045 and replaced by a JSHV Block II (improved design) or maybe ? by a newer JSHV X design (procurement begin in FY 2030).1 ordered each year through FY2009/2012; 2 ordered each year thought FY2013/2022, for a total of 24 JSHV (+ 5 others ordered by US Army). For a total of 41 JHSV procured over the next 30 year.

+/- 1200 Very Small Boats (4 to 11 meters)The Coast Guard operates a grand total of +/- 1,400 small boats, defined as any vessel less than 65 feet (20 meters) in length (the shortest is 12 feet (4 m)) which generally operate near shore and on inland waterways. This 1200 very small boats include:

A +/- 3500 tons monohull design built on civilian standard with great automation (to save procurement/operational cost), for excellent seakepping quality and long endurance (for excellent overseas deployments). Armed with a 76mm gun fore, one or two 20 or 25mm gun (Phalanx or Mk 38) aft, up to six 12,7mm machines guns, with hangar for 1 helico. With a self defense capability againt aerial/submarines asymmetrical threats (4/6 short range SAM manpads AAW missile, a cheaper sonar and special weapons againt midgets submarines). Capacity for 2/3 RHIB and 12/15 commandos/special forces. Likely to cost around 150/200 $ million.

Or a more flexible 3000/4000 tons catamaran design (improved JHSV design), likely slightly more expensive (+/- 200/300 $ million) than a conventional monohull design but with a greater modularity. Able to be used as Oceanic patrol boat, small logistic ship, small helico carrier, mothers ship & so. With a combat module fore (for a 76mm gun or 20/30mm gun or self protection missiles, with up to six 12,7mm machines guns around the hull, with a large helipad aft for 2/3 helico/UAV. A vast Internal hangar for 2/3 dozens of vehicles or 2/3 helico/UAV, capacity for 3-4 RHIB or UUV/SUW unmanned vehicles.

+/- 28/38 pure Littoral combatant ships (much smaller/cheaper/effective than the current LCS……): A +/- 500/800 tons (50/80 meters) monohull or catamaran modular design (with “plug in” combat modules, similar to the Danish STANFLEX concept). With high speed (45+ knots), high agility/manoeuvrability, shallow draft, enough small to be carried by much bigger ships (on LHD/LPD/LSD well decks or on deck aboard big auxiliary logistics US ships or civilian ships loaned, as “mothers ship concept”) near the operational aera. Able to be reconfigured very quickly (few days) in 2 versions:

- Surface warfare : heavily armed with one 76mm gun fore, one 20 or 25mm gun aft (Phalanx or Mk 38 gun), up to four 12,7mm machines guns, central module for up to 4 SSM Harpoon, up to 15 small anti-ships missiles (similar than NLOS-LS), up to 6 short range SAM missiles manpad, aft small helipad for small UAV use, aft modular internal room with capacity for 2 RIHB (10/12 commandos/special forces) or 2 SUUVW.

+/- 45 off-shore patrol boat (OPV, for up to 200 miles US EEZ aera patrol’s):A +/- 1000/1800 tons monohull design, built on civilian standard with great automation (to reduce drastically procurement/operational cost). Armed with a 25/35mm gun fore (Mk38 or others), with up to six 12,7mm machines gun, hangar for 1 light helico and UAV, capacity for 2/3 RHIB and 10/12 commandos/special forces.

+/- 130 Mid Shore patrol boats (MPV, up to 60/100 miles patrol’s):A +/- 300/400 tons monohull design, built on civilian standard with great automation (to reduce drastically procurement/operational cost). Armed with a 25/30mm gun fore (Mk38 or others), up to four 12,7mm machines guns, very small UAV capable, capacity for 2 RHIB and up to 10 commandos/special forces.

+/- 350 Coastals Patrol Boat’s (CPB, up to 12 miles patrol’s):A +/- 18/25 tons monohull design, built on civilian standard with great automation (to reduce drastically procurement/operational coast). Capable to carry one or two machines guns and 1 RHIB with 5/8 commandos/special forces.

+/- 1000 Inshore/Waterways patrol’s boats Massive use of RHIB.

Next editorial (likely around early september): Future of the Canadian Navy.

It may be that in my opinion, I forgot programms ? (or made few mistakes ?), then said it ! Feel free to comment and give your opinion !

1 “Guiseppe Garibaldi” class aircraft carrier:“Guiseppe Garibaldi”, 13 000 tons, commissioned by 1985, with +/- 30 years service life, to be retired around 2015 and replaced by a new 20 000 tons LHA (same design as the 2 new expected LHD but with much more enhanced aviation capabilities= F-35 full capable).

2 “Durand de la Penne”: "Luigi Durand de la Penne, Francesco Mimbelli", 5400 tons, commissioned by 1993, with probable 30 years service life expected, to be retired by 2023. Maybe to be replaced by 2 new Orizzonte (+/- doubtful) or maybe by 2 AAW enhanced ships derived from the newer Bergamini FFG class ?, or, at the worse, not replaced (because the newer “Bergamini” have few AAW capabilities…)

12 ASW frigates (to down to 10 or at the extreme worst only 6 ? by late 2010’s) 8 “Maestrale”:(Maestrale, Grecale, Libeccio, Scirocco, Aliseo, Euro, Espero, Zeffiro). 3100 tons, Much enlarged Artigliere design. Commissioned by 1982/1985, with +/- 30 years service life (for few ships, extended to 35+ years to last until late 2010’s), to be retired by 2012/2020.

4 “Artigliere/Lupo”:(Artigliere, Aviere, Bersagliere, Granatiere), 2800 tons, light ASW frigates, commissioned by 1977, with probable +/- 30 years service life, to be retired very soon, all by early 2010’s.

10 newer 6000 tons “Bergamini” class FFG(nearly common FFG frigate designed with France) in 2 models (6 “GP”= General purpose and 4 “ASW”= Anti submarine warfare), 1 ship commissioned each years from 2012 to 2021. But some serious doubts rise about the real final number of ships really to be built by 2021:- A 1st batch of 2 ships were already under construction: “F 590 ? Bergamini”(GP), commissioned by 2012 and “F 591 ? Margottini” (ASW) by 2013.- A 2st batch of 4 ships (3 ASW, 1 GP: F 592-595 ?), apparently a secured order, will be delivered by 2014/2017.- A 3rd batch of 2 ships (GP: F-596/597 ?) maybe ? ordered by 2013, to be delivered by 2018/2019.- A 4th and final batch of 2 ships (GP: F-598/599 ?) ordered by 2015, to be delivered by 2020/2021 or, at the worse, finally not ordered or ordered but with a modified design (AAW enhanced) to replace ageing “Durand de la Penne” ???

18 Corvettes/OPV (to drop to +/- 15 by early 2020’s)8 “Minerva”:(Minerva, Danaide, Urania, Sfinge, Driade, Chimera, Fenice, Sibilla), 1280 tons,commissioned by 1987/1989, with probable +/- 30 years service life expected, to be retired around 2017/2022.

4 “Cassiopea”(Cassiopea, Libra, Spica, Vega), 1475 tons OPV, commissioned 1989/1991. With probable 25/30 years service life, to be retired by 2014/2021. I think that it is probable that this 4 “Cassiopea” and the 8 “Minerva” (all from the same 1987/1991 era), will be maybe replaced by a new single common class ? (OPV ?) of only 6/10 new ships.

2 “Sirio”:(Sirio, Orione), 1500 tons OPV, commissioned by 2003/2004. With probable +/- 30 years service life, to be replaced around 2033.

12 Minewespeer (toward only 6 to 8 by mid 2020’s ?) 4 “Lerici”:(Lerici, Sapri, Milazzo, Vieste), 620 tons, commissioned by 1985, with probable 30 years service life, to be retired by mid 2010’s decade, very likely without replacement.

8 “Gaeta”:(Gaeta, Termilo, Alghero, Numana, Crotone, Viareggio, Chioggia, Rimini), 700 tons, slightly improved Lerici, commissioned 1994/1996, with probable 30 years service life, to be retired by 2024/2026 and likely to be replaced by 6 to 8 new modular/flexible ships.

Amphibious Fleet (Fewer and bigger "gator's" by late 2010’s) 3 “San Giorgo”:(San Giorgo, San Marco, San Giusto), 8000 tons light LPD/LHD, commissioned 1987/1994, with probable 25+ years service life expected, to be retired around 2014/2018 and replaced by 2 new and bigger 20 000 tons LHD.

6 Submarines (maybe down to 4 by late 2010’s…) 2 “Todaro”:(Salvatore Todaro, Sciré), German type 212 design, commissioned by 2006/2007. 2 more were planned by 2013/2014 to replace ageing Sauro (III or IV or both ?).

If larger units (destroyers/frigates/corvettes) will see their numbers lowered (and their sizes grow). We too easily forget that the Italian Navy has a considerable number of small units (Off-shore patrol vessels, Mid-shore patrol vessels, In-shore patrol vessels…).