I could write numerous articles on how Tarantino and DiCaprio got the shaft, how Christopher Nolan got cheated, and how Looper didn't even get a best original screenplay nomination, but I'll stick to just the Best Picture category to tear apart.

Branching out from politics and economics, I have been examining Oscar predictions over the last few weeks. While I approach the science of predictions the same way for both political elections and the Oscars, there are some key differences.

It's that time of year again, when Hollywood pays tribute the best in cinema. There's no question that 2012 was a stellar year at the box office, but how did it translate in the eyes of the eyes of the Academy?

This year, it's looking as if I won't be buying tickets to most of the nominees for Best Picture, because I have this built-in protective mechanism which keeps me away from exceptionally violent films.

I'm going to advocate that Oscar bloggers, much like starting pitchers, should be on rotation with mandatory rest years in-between. But before I start my online petition, I figured I'd muse on today's Oscar nominations from my completely uninformed point of view.

"It's difficult to see a scenario where 'Lincoln' doesn't romp," wrote Tim Grierson and Will Leitch over at Deadspin following the Oscar nominations on Thursday morning. Which would be true, except for the "difficult" part. Because any Oscar discussion that doesn't allow for the possibility of "Silver Linings Playbook" winning Best Picture seems incomplete at best.

In our initial likelihoods of victory for the big six categories, Lincoln is our most likely winner in three: best actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) at near certainty, best picture at 94 percent, and best director (Steven Spielberg) at 70 percent.

For me, movie portrayals of mental health professionals are generally infuriating, insulting and depressing. Why would anyone reasonable invest the time and money going to see a shrink like the ones they see in films? These depictions of people in my field are embarrassing.