When Warren Gatland was asked about the Lions captaincy shortly after being anointed as head coach on Tuesday, his response was at first dismissive then paradoxical.

Sam Warburton and Warren Gatland together with Wales as coach and captain

When Warren Gatland was asked about the Lions captaincy shortly after being anointed as head coach on Tuesday, his response was at first dismissive then paradoxical.

“It’s too early, even though some are speculating already,” was the New Zealander’s immediate response when the question was put to him.

Gatland’s instinct was to stress that a week can be a long time in rugby, never mind 10 months. So much water will pass under the bridge in that time, he seemed to be suggesting, that detailed analysis now would be pointless.

Yet in virtually the next breath Gatland was prepared to throw out the names of the players he – and probably the vast majority of punters – see as the main contenders for a role which is held up as the ultimate honour in the British and Irish game.

Sam Warburton, Brian O’Driscoll, Paul O’Connell and Chris Robshaw were those mentioned specifically by Gatland as being in the mix, and we might as well accept that, even accounting for the slings and arrows of the coming season, it would still be a major surprise if somebody from outside that quartet ended up wearing the armband in Australia next summer.

If that would seem presumptuous, then who else is there?

Any Scottish options? Not really.

Hooker Ross Ford led the team on their successful south seas tour three months ago, but while bookmakers have him as favourite to occupy the Test hooking berth against the Wallabies the idea of him being captain is far fetched.

Would Gatland take the left-field path of choosing somebody from underneath a current national captain? Almost certainly not.

To see the odds on the contenders in the gallery below, make sure captions are turned on
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The exception to that of course would be O’Connell, who is not Irish skipper at present but who is a special case because he did the Lions job in South Africa in 2009.

Apart from him, though, I can think of few others.

If Gatland decides to go so far left-field that he’s in Row Z, he could go for England hooker Dylan Hartley perhaps, or our own Alun Wyn Jones.

He clearly admires Hartley, as evidenced by his verbal attempt to unsettle him before the 2011 Six Nations opener between England and Wales, and the New Zealand-born front-row man does lead his club, Northampton.

Yet it’s still a huge long shot, and why would Gatland go for second row Jones ahead of Warburton?

So what about the four who, in Gatland’s own words, are clearly the guys in pole position?

As things stand, it is Warburton who is the narrow favourite.

Having led Wales to a World Cup semi-final and a Grand Slam under Gatland’s command, it is only logical to assume that the Lions captaincy is his to lose.

At the press call to announce his appointment in central London on Tuesday, Gatland was asked about the importance of off-field discipline in Australia by English journalists who experienced the well-documented unravelling of standards under Martin Johnson at the World Cup.

The Kiwi stressed it would be paramount, and therefore, given how Warburton has been the driving force behind lifting the level of professionalism among the Wales group to a height never seen before, the Blues openside flanker resoundingly ticks that box as well.

Yet Warburton is no shoo-in, not by a long chalk.

He has two feats to achieve this season if he wants to lead the Lions out onto the field for the first Test in Brisbane on June 22; avoid lengthy spells out injured, and hold off the challenge of the brilliant Justin Tipuric for his Wales No.7 jersey.

Negotiate them both however, and it will be difficult for Gatland to look beyond Warburton.

That would be bad news for Robshaw who is, of course, a rival for the Welshman’s position.

The most obvious argument against the England captain stepping up to fulfil the same role for the Lions is Gatland’s understandable insistence that any skipper must be guaranteed his place, something he again brought up on Tuesday.

Good though Robshaw is, with the likes of Warburton, Sean O’Brien, Scotsman Rob Rennie and very possibly Tipuric for competition, he is not in that elevated category.

Nevertheless, it is daft to dismiss his Lions captaincy credentials altogether.

Harlequins man Robshaw has done a huge amount to restore England’s reputation as a credible force since the World Cup implosion, and against Wales in the Triple Crown clash at Twickenham last February he was excellent.

He competed well with Warburton in scavenging for the ball that afternoon, physically he put himself about to an extraordinary degree and his reading of the game was outstanding.

Robshaw also led Quins to the Aviva Premiership title in May and it should be recognised that in the last six months he has grown considerably in stature as both a player and a leader.

If he continues that sort of progress then he’s very much in the mix to be the main man with the Lions.

Next page: The Irish contenders

So what of the Irish boys?

For me, O’Driscoll is by far the likelier to get a second chance at leading the Lions than O’Connell.

Three years ago in South Africa, Sir Ian McGeechan wanted a big nasty lock to do his bidding as captain in the same way Martin Johnson did in South Africa in 1997.

Johnson wasn’t even England captain at the time, Phil De Glanville was, but McGeechan valued the Leicester second row’s physical presence, knowing that he had the leadership skills in any case.

The philosophy was similar with O’Connell in 2009 as the man who had not only led Ireland but been at the forefront of pulling Munster from provincial obscurity to the very pinnace of the European game.

But even though the Lions were desperately unfortunate to lose the series, the Irishman was criticised at times for not imposing himself in the way many expected.

O’Connell will not lead Munster this season, and at 32 is seen as a fading force by some. Yet if he can produce what he is capable of in the coming months he has to be right in the frame.

His fellow countryman O’Driscoll will be 34 by the time the Lions touch down in Australia, but there are few signs that his talents are notably on the wane.

He’s led Leinster to three Heineken Cup wins in the last four years and remains the talisman of the Irish national side.

What’s more, when it comes to the Lions O’Driscoll is still hungry. Very hungry.

He’s been on three tours and is yet to win a series, and when he was captain in 2005 his tour ended infamously just minutes into the first Test when he was the victim of a spear-tackle which broke his collar-bone.

So you could say O’Driscoll has unfinished business not only as a Lions player, but as a captain too.

It’s understood he views this Lions tour as his Test swansong and what better way to go out than by captaining a series-winning side at the fourth attempt?

That would be the ideal scenario for O’Driscoll, but very few players get to pick and choose how they bow out.

As Gatland pointed out, it is premature to be make hard and fast assumptions on this subject, but however you view it, the race to become Lions captain is already under way.

Fate will decree the winner.

Who do you think should be 2013 Lions skipper? Have your say in the comments box below

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