Well, political science professors Kenneth Bickers[4] of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver have updated their model[5] and say the new data still shows a Romney win.

According to the updated analysis, Romney would get 330 Electoral College votes to Obama’s 208 votes, even less than the 218 the pair predicted during the summer and still well short of the 270 needed to win. Again, it’s a huge disconnect from national punditry which still shows an easy Obama victory[6] (though experts say new polling will have to gauge the effect of Romney’s success during Wednesday’s debate).

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

The pair’s analysis relies on state and national unemployment figures and changes in real per capita income, among other factors. Their updated analysis includes unemployment rates from August instead of May, and has changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March.

The duo predicts Romney winning all but three of 13 battleground states.