Sunday, January 08, 2006

Red Sox - Acquired Snow

Well, it looks like the Red Sox need a defensive caddy for The Greek God for some odd reason. Too bad they chose J.T. Snow, who’s probably the most overrated defensive 1B of this generation. For all his legendary scooping ability, there isn’t the slightest shred of evidence that Giant infielders had better fielding percentages with Snow as their 1B than other Giant 1Bs or the 1B du jour in Phoenix/Fresno. And Snow’s once decent range is now nonexistent. I bet dollars to donuts that Youkilis is the better defensive 1B. Yes, Snow hit well in ‘03 and ‘04. He’s also going to be 38 and his bat speed was so slow in 2005 that you’d wonder if he forgot to take the weighted donut off.

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As a Red Sox fan, this has been a fascinating and frustrating off-season. Lots of bombshells, a few outright bombs, and . . . this. Up to this point, I've been able, at the very least, to squint at every move that's been made and go, "Huh. Well, that's an interesting idea." But J.T. Goddamned Snow? I understand that we can afford it, and hopefully Tito isn't having any thoughts about starting him regularly, but seriously -- J.T. Goddamned Snow? What, Scott Spiezio wasn't available? The more time drags on, the more they futz around with Manny and collecting the entirety of the world's population of benchworthy corner infielders, the more I become convinced that the new front office is planning on fielding Trot Nixon at center and Mark Loretta at short, in the hopes that scoring 1200 runs will make up for having the worst defense since the introduction of the padded glove. I foresee a mess of ugly wins -- and, unless things change, not enough of them to keep pace with New York.

well i like this deal. snow can still hit right handed pitching and 1b defense is more important in fenway due to the huge rf.

He hit right-handed pitching in '03 and '04. He looked horrific last year - I'd be surprised if he matched even that projection above.

While 1B defense is important in Fenway, if the Red Sox wanted a defensive 1B, they should have gotten one who could play good defense instead of one who was simply a good, overrated defensive 1B a decade ago.

Last season, Snow batted 279 / 350 / 376 against righties. All right for a second baseman, absolute crap for a first baseman. Given that he'll be 38 before the season's start, I think you'd be hard-pressed to come up with a good reason to expect him to be better than that ibn 2006.

And it seems to me as though the size of RF doesn't have any particular bearing on how important 1B defense is -- what's important is flagging down flies, which falls under the aegis of the RF and CF. Given that Snow isn't a particularly great defensive 1B anymore, and the relatively small foul ground, his alleged defensive assets aren't going to make much difference to what promises to be one of the more porous defenses in recent memory.

I foresee a mess of ugly wins -- and, unless things change, not enough of them to keep pace with <strike>New York</strike> Toronto.

While I wouldn't bet money on a third-place finish in 2006..having holes at shortstop and center field complete with a very shaky pitching staff doesn't bode well. Now if you're rebuilding, that's one thing, but adding J.T. Snow to play first base?

I just don't think Toronto has improved as much as most people seem to. I have a hard time seeing Glaus as any kind of godsend, given his deteriorating defense and the fact that he slugged .522 in Arizona last year, which is not exactly superstar stuff for a guy whose OBP is unlikely to crawl past .370. Lyle Overbay is 29 and has only really hit well for a first baseman in one season. Of their top two starters, one (Halladay) has been repeatedly injured and is exactly the kind of pitcher most likely to be hurt by the departure of Orlando Hudson; the other (Burnett) has a long and varied injury history, as well as never having been exactly outstanding in any particular season. They'll be better than last season, and they're probably the only team in the top 3 of the AL East who can make that claim with any assuredness, but I don't know if they'll be able to get out of third place.

And it seems to me as though the size of RF doesn't have any particular bearing on how important 1B defense is -- what's important is flagging down flies, which falls under the aegis of the RF and CF.

Well, I think Chris is referring to balls hit down the line.

If you're getting a pure defensive replacement, then go out and get one and damn the offense. Give Joe McEwing time at 1st and he'll make J.T. Snow look like Sam Horn there. Instead, the Red Sox get someone who isn't good enough offensively to help the team and not defensively good enough to mean a damn thing.

For all his legendary scooping ability, there isn't the slightest shred of evidence that Giant infielders had better fielding percentages with Snow as their 1B than other Giant 1Bs or the 1B du jour in Phoenix/Fresno.

And gave him two million dollars to do it. I feel like I'm reliving the Dan Duquette era.

Duquette paid $5 mil instead!

It's fun and easy to throw out all but last year, but that's a really foolish way to project future performance, even in a 38-year-old. Snow looks like a great replacement for Olerud: old guy, slow, great defensive rep, taking ABs away from a better hitter.

I do not think Snow will be very good next year, but did you see what he did in '04? That is a reason to expect him to be better than last year.

Did you see what Ken Caminiti did in 1996?

Seriously, Snow's 2004 wasn't quite that big a fluke, but I don't take it seriously as a reason to expect Snow to be significantly better next year, at the age of 38, than he was last year. Older players fall off a cliff with some regularity; I suspect that last season was that moment for Snow.

It's fun and easy to throw out all but last year, but that's a really foolish way to project future performance, even in a 38-year-old. Snow looks like a great replacement for Olerud: old guy, slow, great defensive rep, taking ABs away from a better hitter.