Which fighter losing would surprise you more?

100% Jon Jones. GSP is destined to get KO'd again. It already almost happened against Condit. As dominant as GSP has been, Jones has been that much better. Everyone said he was afraid to stand with Rampage and would just take him down...except he stood with him for most of the 1st round. Same with Machida. Same with Shogun. Kid is a killer. GSP is incredible but has started to rely on on a strict gameplan rather than just feel a guy out like Jones/Aldo/Silva do. I mean...lets get real, Jake Shields/Dan Hardy should have been beaten up and finished at some point in the fight, whether it was on the feet or on the ground. No excuses. Anyone who has seen the Matt Hughes fights know this.

Their game plans are different, but if you think for a second that Jones isn't relying just as heavily on a game-plan, you may want to rethink that. Both he and Jackson have said as much several times. Same with Silva and Aldo. No one goes in the cage without an idea of what they're going to do at the level these guys are at.

Anyway, for me, it's Jones.

The longer a streak, the greater the probability of it ending. It has very little to do with the dominance level either have shown against their opponents.

Their game plans are different, but if you think for a second that Jones isn't relying just as heavily on a game-plan, you may want to rethink that. Both he and Jackson have said as much several times. Same with Silva and Aldo. No one goes in the cage without an idea of what they're going to do at the level these guys are at.

Anyway, for me, it's Jones.

The longer a streak, the greater the probability of it ending. It has very little to do with the dominance level either have shown against their opponents.

Jones/Aldo/Silva feel their opponents out and then go in for the kill as soon as they see something they can exploit. Although there is an element of strategy I would use the term "gameplan" with them very loosely. They can adapt to everything their opponents throw at them. The #1 reason why GSP doesn't finish guys is because he is too strategic/methodical/reactive and doesn't stray off course of the gameplan ever. He does everything well but that's why he's winning by dominant decisions rather than finishing, doesn't exploit the mistakes his opponents make. I mean...Koscheck had one eye and he didn't think to take him down and pound him out? A wrestler stuck on his back with a broken orbital? Instead he stuck with the standing gameplan and jabbed him out for 5 rounds. Letting an opponent hang around for 5 rounds is exactly how GSP is going to get caught one of these days which is why I'll be far less surprised. Disappointed yes...but surprised, no.

Bones is way less likely to lose, he is a really bad match up for Alexander and will take him apart with relative ease IMO. GSP could easily lose to Hendricks, I think Hendricks gas tank may end up as his downfall. He tends to be tired in 3 round fight, 5 rounds of GSP attacking you will have to wear him down for sure.

Jones/Aldo/Silva feel their opponents out and then go in for the kill as soon as they see something they can exploit.

That sounds like a game plan to me. Go out, judge timing, counter.

Although there is an element of strategy I would use the term "gameplan" with them very loosely. They can adapt to everything their opponents throw at them. The #1 reason why GSP doesn't finish guys is because he is too strategic/methodical/reactive and doesn't stray off course of the gameplan ever. He does everything well but that's why he's winning by dominant decisions rather than finishing, doesn't exploit the mistakes his opponents make.

Seems you have them on a pedestal because of finishes or not fighting skill. And that affects whether they follow game plans or not.

I mean...Koscheck had one eye and he didn't think to take him down and pound him out? A wrestler stuck on his back with a broken orbital? Instead he stuck with the standing gameplan and jabbed him out for 5 rounds. Letting an opponent hang around for 5 rounds is exactly how GSP is going to get caught one of these days which is why I'll be far less surprised. Disappointed yes...but surprised, no.

That's all good, but it relies on a lot of supposition and insight I think is misplaced. It also presumes knowledge not available at the time, the most common form of revisionism (unintentional). Like I said, if you don't think Silva/Aldo and especially Jones, don't have game-plans and follow them, you're not listening to their coaches in between rounds. Jones is just as much as game-plan guy as GSP, maybe more so and Jackson constantly reminds both of them of that.

And exactly what adaption has Silva exhibited? From feeling out to goading someone into punching recklessly so he can counter? I didn't see Anderson change his tactics after he gotten taken down by Weidman - he went to exactly what's worked for him in every fight prior - baiting and countering. When it doesn't work, you get Leites and Maia fights.

Jones introduces new things in each fight, stuff he's worked on, and game planned to use. Other than that, he's pretty much using his length and reach to decimate opponents from the outset of every fight. I don't see him adapting to his opponents much because he's been that much better than them.

For me, the #1 reason why GSP doesn't finish guys is because his competition is that much better and he doesn't have one punch super KO power. In case you hadn't noticed, guys don't actually get uber-aggressive with GSP. Most times, they fight a lot more defensively than they do against anyone else. When that's factored in, it fits the bill better than the idea that GSP fought safe after Serra and fought wild before. It's a myth.

You're just picking a fight to pick a fight. Plus your first 2 sentences in the third paragraph don't make a lick of sense. Time to put the thesaurus away and talk like a real human. Your definition of a gameplan when it comes to MMA is obviously far different than mine. Of course they have a strategy going into the fight, my point is the other 3 adapt to their opponents and eventually use their weapons against them to finish the fight, GSP sticks to his no matter what the opponent does. That is obvious when he doesn't pass guard whenever he's got top position. GSP's competition is really not that much better than Jones/Aldo/Silva either. That's a pretty big misconception. Last time I checked Rashad, Shogun, Rampage, Machida, Mendes, Korean Zombie, Faber, Edgar, Swanson, Hendo, Maia, Belfort, and Sonnen all brought a pretty good set of skills to the table.

I don't see any merit in your points. And I'm expressing my disagreement. You're responding in kind and are every bit part of it. It's like you're utterly unaware of your own participation. I mean, I can disagree without dislike, but apparently you can't. That's your failing , boyo.

Plus your first 2 sentences in the third paragraph don't make a lick of sense.

They don't make sense to you. There's a difference.

Time to put the thesaurus away and talk like a real human.

When your first three sentences are about me, you're really not putting up much of an argument for your points. Perhaps you should pick up a thesaurus....

Of course they have a strategy going into the fight, my point is the other 3 adapt to their opponents and eventually use their weapons against them to finish the fight, GSP sticks to his no matter what the opponent does. That is obvious when he doesn't pass guard whenever he's got top position.

Okay, leaving aside the fights that didn't have very much ground fighting, do you mean the 8 passes GSP got in against Condit? Or the two against Diaz? (Impressive considering how good Diaz is on the ground). Perhaps you meant the 26 passes against Hardy? Or the 13 against Alves? The 10 on BJ in their second fight? Or the seven passes he got against Fitch? Exactly where does the sitting in the guard thing happen?

Don't bother, they're rhetorical and illustrate what you think happened didn't. Like I said, revisionism. Almost like there's no one else fighting back...

GSP's competition is really not that much better than Jones/Aldo/Silva either. That's a pretty big misconception. Last time I checked Rashad, Shogun, Rampage, Machida, Mendes, Korean Zombie, Faber, Edgar, Swanson, Hendo, Maia, Belfort, and Sonnen all brought a pretty good set of skills to the table.

At some point you might realize that I wasn't comparing across champions, but along GSP's career arc.

"For me, the #1 reason why GSP doesn't finish guys is because his competition is that much better and he doesn't have one punch super KO power. In case you hadn't noticed, guys don't actually get uber-aggressive with GSP. Most times, they fight a lot more defensively than they do against anyone else. When that's factored in, it fits the bill better than the idea that GSP fought safe after Serra and fought wild before. It's a myth."

You see, a paragraph is a series of sentences that are related. Each sentence isn't a universe unto itself. Not a single comment about GSP having better comp than anyone else and a statement about GSP's career, specifically the common held and grossly inaccurate perception that GSP plays it safe since he got the belt back. I gave three reasons, and then stated how it was applicable to his career. Nothing about it being better than Jones or Aldo. Silva, you can make an argument it isn't as good. But I didn't go there.

it depends on how each were to lose. I wouldn't be shocked if Hendricks KO's GSP, but would be if he out wrestles him. I wouldn't be shocked if Gus wins a split decision off of his in and out striking game, but would be shocked if Gus subbed Jones.
if I was to take Gus and Hendricks best chances and most likeliest scenarios to beat the champs, I'd say I'd still be shocked to see GSP get KO'd from a Hendricks left hand. cause he's the long time champ that's mastered the risk free game plan that nullifies his opponents strengths, even with all the signs that tell me GSP plateaued as a fighter, it'll still be surreal to see GSP lose

it depends on how each were to lose. I wouldn't be shocked if Hendricks KO's GSP, but would be if he out wrestles him. I wouldn't be shocked if Gus wins a split decision off of his in and out striking game, but would be shocked if Gus subbed Jones.

Nice take. Well put.

if I was to take Gus and Hendricks best chances and most likeliest scenarios to beat the champs, I'd say I'd still be shocked to see GSP get KO'd from a Hendricks left hand. cause he's the long time champ that's mastered the risk free game plan that nullifies his opponents strengths, even with all the signs that tell me GSP plateaued as a fighter, it'll still be surreal to see GSP lose

But as you've implied, that chance is there and it's not insignificant. It's not monstrous and as the fight progresses, I see Johny's chances fading drastically.

I will be shitting bricks (not the mod variety) for the first round....

But as you've implied, that chance is there and it's not insignificant. It's not monstrous and as the fight progresses, I see Johny's chances fading drastically.

I will be shitting bricks (not the mod variety) for the first round....

we've seen what GSP is as a champ from beating his contemporaries and now is fighting the new guard. and I do feel that it's harder for GSP to get the fight into his planned area and keep it there, so I think any time the fight is not where GSP planned for, he's vulnerable. but it's more difficult to accept and anticipate a champ like GSP losing even more so than a champ like Silva cause GSP is the master planner as opposed to the master finisher

i think i better question would be between aldo and hendo. imo aldo he has for the most part dominated his opponents , ben has taken his last however many fights to decision, idk how much longer i think ben can hold it, PETTIS FTW

we've seen what GSP is as a champ from beating his contemporaries and now is fighting the new guard. and I do feel that it's harder for GSP to get the fight into his planned area and keep it there, so I think any time the fight is not where GSP planned for, he's vulnerable. but it's more difficult to accept and anticipate a champ like GSP losing even more so than a champ like Silva cause GSP is the master planner as opposed to the master finisher

The thing is, the current new guard is barely younger than GSP. GSP's 32, but Hendricks is 29, Condit 29, Diaz 30, Ellenberger 28, Askren 29 (and Maia's 35). Anybody brought up outside of Rory isn't really that much younger than him. Still, I think Bones is less likely to lose than GSP, both in their next fights and beyond that. I think Hendricks is a more dangerous opponent than Gus and I think after Gus, there aren't many challenges for Bones outside of Glover, whereas GSP has the (some of) names listed above. Jones has also looked more untouchable than GSP, with GSP having his three bad fights, followed by getting hurt by Condit, and slowing against Diaz (although sickness and potential injury).

The thing is, the current new guard is barely younger than GSP. GSP's 32, but Hendricks is 29, Condit 29, Diaz 30, Ellenberger 28, Askren 29 (and Maia's 35). Anybody brought up outside of Rory isn't really that much younger than him. Still, I think Bones is less likely to lose than GSP, both in their next fights and beyond that. I think Hendricks is a more dangerous opponent than Gus and I think after Gus, there aren't many challenges for Bones outside of Glover, whereas GSP has the (some of) names listed above. Jones has also looked more untouchable than GSP, with GSP having his three bad fights, followed by getting hurt by Condit, and slowing against Diaz (although sickness and potential injury).

it's just harder for me to view a champ like GSP to lose even if the signs are there. I don't really look at the old guard, new guard etc from age, but career path and trajectory.
i've seen young champs lose before, even if they were meant to be dominant or were at the time. it's harder to predict when a long time dominant champ, and even when the signs are there it's still hard to accept. all subjective though.

i think i better question would be between aldo and hendo. imo aldo he has for the most part dominated his opponents , ben has taken his last however many fights to decision, idk how much longer i think ben can hold it, PETTIS FTW

that would be easier. although Aldo does have the weakness of fading in fights, he's more dangerous and has a truly complete skill set. Bendo since he won his title has more decisions that could have gone either way than convincing wins. so he's not seen as dominant. so I could see Bendo losing a SD before I see someone being able to capitalize on Aldo's cardio

that would be easier. although Aldo does have the weakness of fading in fights, he's more dangerous and has a truly complete skill set. Bendo since he won his title has more decisions that could have gone either way than convincing wins. so he's not seen as dominant. so I could see Bendo losing a SD before I see someone being able to capitalize on Aldo's cardio

Aldo is going to have to move up soon - I suspect cutting to FW is getting harder.

In his UFC career, who has put him in a situation where he was uncomfortable or put him off his game?

To be clear, I don't class getting rocked as being uncomfortable. That's being rocked.

that's more of a feeling, so it's a reach. just based off of my impression of his performances.
and I know it's different challengers meaning different dangers for GSP. but I'm comparing GSP earlier title defenses compared to his last 3 fights.
but this is a long time dominant champ, so for me I have to speculate more, just to stay interested so I can somewhat get excited and not get jaded and end up reacting to a GSP fight with a"meh, he'll win so what"

that's more of a feeling, so it's a reach. just based off of my impression of his performances.
and I know it's different challengers meaning different dangers for GSP. but I'm comparing GSP earlier title defenses compared to his last 3 fights.
but this is a long time dominant champ, so for me I have to speculate more, just to stay interested so I can somewhat get excited and not get jaded and end up reacting to a GSP fight with a"meh, he'll win so what"

Fair enough, speculation is fine. And along that arc, I can see your point.

As a huge GSP fan, it doesn't matter who he fights, I get massive butterflies. Anyone can win at any time...

edit; the reason I responded is because a lot of times I think that argument "if his opponent can take GSP out of his game, he'll beat GSP" is a longer way of saying "the way to beat GSP is to win!".

Fair enough, speculation is fine. And along that arc, I can see your point.

As a huge GSP fan, it doesn't matter who he fights, I get massive butterflies. Anyone can win at any time...

edit; the reason I responded is because a lot of times I think that argument "if his opponent can take GSP out of his game, he'll beat GSP" is a longer way of saying "the way to beat GSP is to win!".

I don't think its about taking GSP out of his game, its about avoiding takedowns essentially. Diaz did a good job of it for the most part but he had to commit 100% to block takedowns to do it (which left him wide open to get jabbed and taken out of his striking game). A guy like Hendricks though could be scary if he's able to get inside and dish out punishment while avoiding the takedowns. Takedowns are the key to GSP winning. If you block those and can still strike normal you can beat him. I'm not saying it's an easy task at all...and its funny because I'm a huge GSP fan as well, but it's definitely going to be tougher to beat Jon Jones than GSP still. Not only do you have the task of beating all of the same weapons (including a much more dynamic striking arsenal), but he's also a huge physical monster at 205, and you likely won't have 5 rounds to get a "lucky" shot in.

I don't think its about taking GSP out of his game, its about avoiding takedowns essentially. Diaz did a good job of it for the most part but he had to commit 100% to block takedowns to do it (which left him wide open to get jabbed and taken out of his striking game).

I can see why it has that appearance, but I think that had far more to do with the flu and the injury than it did Diaz's skills. Diaz didn't stop a single takedown until the 3rd round when GSP looked more tired than I've ever seen him look. Prior to that, Diaz was getting worked.

Plus Nick's walkdown was getting stopped every time GSP put a jab in his face. It's not that easy to get inside that jab. And I don't think Johny's double step leap left hook is the way to do it. Georges can cover the same distance more quickly and moves out when he'd done. Johny does the leap, swing, leap, swing and ends up planted.

A guy like Hendricks though could be scary if he's able to get inside and dish out punishment while avoiding the takedowns.

Hendricks is a scary guy. And you're right, if he can get inside, he can deal some damage. But he's got to get inside and when there he's gotta show some wrestling domination I don't think he has. (Yes, he's an awesome wrestler, but we've seen GSP out wrestle a litany of guys of his caliber.)

Takedowns are the key to GSP winning. If you block those and can still strike normal you can beat him. I'm not saying it's an easy task at all...

That's the crux. GSP is so damn strong, fast and explosive and his feints don't get nearly enough credit, imo. The guy freezes people and takes them completely out of their game with twitches, looks and shifts. It blows me away how these minute things that play such a massive role in a fight get ignored by many.