Appeal to Possibility

Description: When a conclusion is assumed not because it is probably true or it has not been demonstrated to be impossible, but because it is possible that it is true, no matter how improbable.

Logical Form:

X is possible.

Therefore, X is true.

Example #1:

Brittany: I haven’t applied to any other schools besides Harvard.

Casey: You think that is a good idea? After all, you only have a 2.0 GPA, your SAT scores were pretty bad, and frankly, most people think you are not playing with a full deck.

Brittany: Are you telling me that it is impossible for me to get in?

Casey: Not *impossible*, but...

Brittany: Then shut your trap.

Explanation: Yes, it is possible that Harvard will accept Brittany to fill some sympathy quota, or perhaps someone at admissions will mix Brittany up with “Britney”, the 16-year-old Asian with the 4.0 average who also discovered a vaccine for a rare flu in her spare time, but because Brittany is appealing to possibility, she is committing this fallacy.

Example #2:

Dave: Did you know that Jesus was gay?

Tim: And why do you say that?

Dave: You have to admit, it is possible!

Tim: So is the fact that you are a moron.

Explanation: We cannot assume Jesus was gay based on the possibility alone. This also includes the argument from ignorance fallacy -- concluding a possibility based on missing information (an outright statement that Jesus was a heterosexual).

Tip: Catch yourself every time you are about to use the word “impossible”. Yes, there are many things that are logically and physically impossible, and it is a valid concept and word, but so often we use that word when we really mean “improbable”. Confusing the impossible with the improbable or unlikely, could, in many cases, destroy the possibility of great success.

References:

This a logical fallacy frequently used on the Internet. No academic sources could be found.

Registered User Comments

Jacob

Wednesday, February 21, 2018 - 02:36:45 AM

Is this an example of this fallacy?

90 percent of people who are accused of murder are convicted of murder, therefore we might as well assume all alleged murderers are actual murderers.

It's not a strong example, because it is not only possible, but it is also probable. This can be a good heuristic, depending on the consequences of the assumption. For example, if the assumption means being careful around the person, then great, If it means executing them... not so great.

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