10-6 record sounds about right for Green Bay Packers

Tuesday

Oct 8, 2013 at 3:10 PM

A column on the web site Bleacher Report did a little soothsaying regarding the Green Bay Packers' final record this season. The columnist -- Michelle Noyer-Granacki -- broke things down and came up with a 10-6 mark. Now I want to break them down.

Randy Ruef Staff writer @RandyRuef

A column on the web site Bleacher Report did a little soothsaying regarding the Green Bay Packers' final record this season.

The columnist -- Michelle Noyer-Granacki -- broke things down and came up with a 10-6 mark.

Now I want to break them down.

Green Bay sits at 2-2 after an up-and-down start. The offense looked good in the loss to San Francisco and in bursts in the loss to Cincinnati, but the defense stunk both times. They both looked pretty good against Washington, but the Redskins are a train wreck. And last Sunday, the defense looked rejuvenated and the offense was balanced, although I don't like this trend of settling for field goals in the red zone.

The question now is, where to they go from here?

Losing Clay Matthews for at least four weeks with a broken thumb is big. But two things should keep fans optimistic: the next four games are not formidible, and last year the Packers went 3-1 with Clay sidelined. That string in 2012 included two wins over the Lions, one over the Vikings and a loss to the Giants.

This year, the big four are at Baltimore, home vs. Cleveland, at Minnesota and home vs. Chicago. I see another 3-1 run there.

The remaining schedule features four games against teams thought to be playoff contenders who have totally bombed: the Eagles, Giants, Steelers and Falcons. The problem with calling those easy wins is the danger of assuming a team in November and December will be the same team it is now. Two of those teams will right the ship and be significantly better, and I'm guessing it will be the Eagles and Falcons. Still beatable, but not gimmes. So we'll go 3-1 there.

That puts the Packers at 8-4 with the remaining games against Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota and Dallas.

I see a split with Chicago and Detroit and a sweep of the Vikings, which means the Dallas game will determine between 9-7 and 10-6. Even though the game is at Dallas, Green Bay always seems to have one big signature win on the road, and this one is it. (Remember the 42-24 beatdown of the 12-4 Texans at Houston last year; road wins over 10-6 Atlanta and the 9-7 Giants in 2011; the 9-0 shut out of the 11-5 Jets in New York in 2010; the 33-7 drubbing at 10-6 Arizona in 2009)