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Hi, everybody. I decided to create this new thread to present the topic better. In my research during the last month, I came up with the theory that the Model 3 80 (aka Model 3 Long Range RWD) scored 334 mi EPA and Tesla voluntarily lowered it to 310 miles. I have lots of data to support this theory. However, this will take a few messages and I want people to be able to follow along easily. Therefore I will start with an analogy to explain what's happening here:

Imagine we are able to tell a person's birthdate by processing some data. The birthdate we can calculate is their actual birthdate and not necessarily what their ID shows. We know that a few people have ID's that show a different birthdate than the actual day they were born.

When we do the calculation for Dolores, the date we calculate is different than what her ID shows. We ask the reason but she doesn't say anything. Some people suggest that maybe the calculations don't work and that's the reason why it doesn't match.

Then we do the calculation for Maeve and it matches what her ID shows. We do it for Bernard and it also matches. Then we try it for Clementine but again it doesn't match her ID. We try to explain that it doesn't match because her ID doesn't show her actual birthdate but critics say the calculations must be wrong sometimes. Then Clementine pulls out another document that shows her actual birthdate and it matches.

In this analogy, Clementine represents the Model S P100D, Maeve the Nissan Leaf, Bernard the Bolt and Dolores the Model 3. What is special about the Model S P100D is that the EPA has published both the voluntarily lowered range and the range before it was voluntarily lowered.

Well-Known Member

Like in the analogy, this is one of the calculations that match what is being declared and we do it to show that the method works. This calculation works perfectly for the Chevrolet Bolt because its range was not voluntarily lowered. In other words, the declared range is the actual test score from dyno tests. We want to calculate the following 3 numbers from EPA dyno test results:

We calculated 3 numbers from the dyno scores and they all match what was declared. MPGe numbers are not affected by voluntary reductions. Therefore, they will always match even when the EPA rated range is voluntarily lowered.

We calculated 3 numbers from the dyno scores and they all match what was declared. By the way, it wasn't exactly a mystery that the Bolt and Leaf range were not voluntarily lowered. The EPA is not trying to hide this. They release yearly documents that show what range numbers were voluntarily lowered. The screenshot below is from an EPA document that you can download here. I found that file on this page under the first column called Datafile1.

Well-Known Member

In the analogy, Clementine was the girl who could document two different birth dates and I said she represented the Model S P100D. Here is the document for the Model S P100D. I found that 2017 file on this page under the first column called Datafile1. Here is a screenshot:

This EPA document says "Combined range voluntarily lowered to 315 miles" and when you select city range, you can see the original range in the formula bar. What they are doing here is, they are reducing the city and highway range retroactively at the same rate the combined range was reduced. In other words, the Model S P100D scored 324.3 mi EPA rated range and it was voluntarily lowered to 315 miles. The ratio of this reduction is 315/324.3. The city range originally was 305.9 miles but they want to reduce it by the same rate. That's why they are multiplying it by 315/324.3. The EPA is not trying to hide voluntary reductions. They are just trying to have consistent city, highway and combined range numbers where all of them are voluntarily reduced.

This 2017 file is very valuable because the EPA doesn't normally leave the original range numbers in the formula cells. Normally, this file should show 297.1 mi as static text and that's it. They were supposed to convert formula cells to static text. In Excel you do that by copying the cells and then right click to same cells > paste special > paste values. They forgot to do that in the 2017 file but they have done it in all previous years.

Step 1: City and highway range: To calculate these, you multiply the dyno scores by 0.738. The Model S and X use different multipliers. There are 3 different multipliers for different Model S trim levels. These are published in another EPA document.
City range = 414.45 mi * 0.738= 305.8641 mi
Highway range = 469.99 mi * 0.738= 346.85262 mi

Similar to the Part 4, this calculation also ended up with a different EPA rated range number than advertised however we can see that the method is correct and the calculated number is the original number before the voluntary reduction because, the calculated 324.3089 matches exactly what the document shows.

Well-Known Member

It's not exactly clear why Tesla voluntarily lowered the range. I can think of a few reasons:

Theory 1: 334 miles was achieved with aero wheel covers and Tesla wanted to be more accurate about the range.

Theory 2: EPA rated range is slightly optimistic. Tesla wanted the range to be more realistic.

Theory 3: Tesla didn't want Model 3 buyers to complain about degradation. Therefore they are under promising and over delivering.

Theory 4: Tesla wanted to make the Model S/X look good.

Here are some data points to consider:

1. Elon said when somebody comes to a Tesla store and asks about the Model 3, they are anti-selling the Model 3 and they tell people to check out the Model S instead. He also said they are not trying to make the Model 3 waiting list longer.

2. As part of the anti-selling campaign, Tesla created a comparison page to compare the Model S and Model 3. That page was misleading because it used to show 215+ miles for the Model 3. There was no mention of 310 miles. Many media sources reported that the Model 3 is a cheaper and smaller car with 215 miles range. This is not correct because more than 60% of Model 3 buyers prefer the larger battery based on survey data. Also, the sales started with the larger battery but they didn't mention 310 miles at all until the very last day which was the delivery day.

3. The comparison page also compared the Model 3 55 performance to the Model S P100D, even though Tesla knows that they will make a Model 3 P80D. Before they created the compare page, Elon had already confirmed that there will be a Model 3 performance version with the Ludicrous mode. The correct comparison would be to compare the Model S P100D to Model 3 P80D or Model S 75 to Model 3 55.

In addition, the compare page said the Model 3 comes with coil suspension but that's misleading because later Tesla confirmed that smart air suspension will be available soon. Comparisons should be more accurate but that would defeat the reason why the page was created. It was created because they want to convert some of the Model 3 reservation holders to Model S buyers.

4. Tesla didn't release the battery sizes for the Model 3. If you look at the specs on the Tesla website here, the page has an incredible amount of Model 3 specs except the very basic one: battery sizes. The reason is that they didn't want the 75 kWh Model S to look bad because the Model 3 larger battery is 80 kWh.

5. Tesla changed the naming scheme to further hide the battery sizes. The names of the Model 3 trim levels should be Model 3 55, 55D, 80, 80D, P80D.

6. In the past, Tesla advertised incorrect specs for the cheaper models to encourage more sales of the expensive models. See the Model S 85D vs Model S P85D 0-60 times example here.

7. Tesla is not worried about advertising unrealistic range numbers. In Europe, they don't have the EPA rated range. Instead, they have the completely unrealistic NEDC rated range. For example, the Model S 100D has 393 miles NEDC rated range in the UK. See Tesla's webpage here. We know that even the 335 miles EPA is a little optimistic. However, outside of North America, Tesla uses the NEDC numbers to stay competitive with other car manufacturers.

8. To encourage the sales of more expensive cars, in the past Tesla didn't mind using some creative advertising methods. For example, when they launched the Model S P85D, they advertised 275 miles range. See the screenshot here. At that time, they needed more P85D sales. However, when they delivered the car, it came with 242 miles EPA range. See the screenshot here. Tesla's history shows that they are not exactly worried about overly optimistic advertisement or wanting to advertise realistic range numbers.

9. Tesla advertises EPA rated range numbers achieved with the smaller wheels even for the performance cars like Model S P85D, Model S P90D, and Model S P100D that are sold mostly with the 21" wheels. Tesla uses the EPA rated range with 19" wheels. See this message for data sources.

This undermines the argument that the voluntary reduction might be related to aero wheel covers. In other words, why would they not advertise the EPA rated range that is achieved with the aero covers even though the car comes with the aero covers while at the same time they advertise the EPA rated range for performance versions with the smaller 19" wheels even though those cars are mostly sold with 21" wheels.

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Based on these data points, I think Theory 4 is more likely. I think the only reason for the voluntary reduction is that Tesla wanted to sell more Model S cars while they ramp up Model 3 production. Therefore advertising 334 mi EPA for the RWD Model 3 80 would make the 100 kWh Model S versions look bad. People are going to be less happy paying $140,000 for the Model S P100D with 315 miles EPA knowing that a much cheaper Tesla has more range. Now they don't have to worry about that.

Also if the Model 3 80 achieved 334 mi EPA, it would mean the Model 3 80D should achieve about 347 mi EPA. That makes it difficult to sell the Model S 100D with 335 miles EPA.

Dis Member

The correct comparison would be to compare the Model S P100D to Model 3 P80D or Model S 75 to Model 3 55.
...
In addition, the compare page said the Model 3 comes with coil suspension but that's misleading because later Tesla confirmed that smart air suspension will be available soon.

Well-Known Member

Hi, everybody. I want to comment on something that might surprise people in the next few months when the EPA rated range of the Model 3 80D and Model 3 P80D are released. It is likely that these cars will share the 310 miles number for a few months. In other words, it is likely that we will see this scenario for a few months:

EPA rules don't require a subconfiguration to have its own EPA test as long as its sales don't exceed 33% of that category. In other words, all 80 kWh Model 3s can use the 310 miles number until the Model 3 80D reaches 33% of 80 kWh sales. This could take until August 2018. So don't be surprised.

This doesn't mean Tesla is taking cells out of the batteries of dual motor versions. This is just a technicality Tesla is able to make use of. For example, in 2013 when they had the Model S 85/P85/P85+, all three cars shared the 265 mi EPA rated range even though there was only one test done in 2012. I think Tesla will make use of this because their estimator shows 220 and 310 miles for dual motor versions.

The Model 3 80D will eventually have its own EPA test. My guess is, it will score 344 miles EPA and Tesla will voluntarily lower it to either 320 or 310 miles. This doesn't mean the car would actually have 344 miles real world range on average and Tesla is making it look like 310 or 320 miles. No, that's not the case because EPA rated range is already about 9% too optimistic.

For example, the Model S 75D has 259 miles EPA rated range but Consumer Reports tested the range at 65 mph (see this video) and they scored 235 miles. That means the EPA rated range is 235/259= 90.7% of real-world range at 65 mph. The voluntary reductions mean Model 3's advertised range will be much closer to real-world range than other Teslas. If Consumer Reports tests the Model 3 80, I think it will score 298 miles at 65 mph which would be 96.1% of advertised range. The Model 3 80D would score 309 miles.

Therefore voluntary reductions are a good thing in terms of making the advertised range numbers more realistic but the problem is, they make the Model S and Model 3 advertised range numbers uncomparable and misleading. Therefore I predict that the Model 3 80 and 80D will achieve more range than any 100 kWh Model S in hypermiling and the Model 3 80D will complete a cross-country trip in a shorter time than the Model S 100D.

Well-Known Member

Hi, everybody. Last week I made two predictions. One was about hypermiling and the other about cross-country trips. See the last sentence in my previous message. Now Teslarati reports that a Model 3 80 just broke the cross-country trip record in 51h 17m. The previous record was 51h 47m. Of course, the Model 3 80D will score even better because it has more range and shorter supercharge sessions than the Model 3 80.

Top-Contributor

Please don't call it a "Model 3 80" or "Model 3 55". That's not it's name, you're only going to cause confusion. Their names are "LR" and "SR". You don't make up names for models of cars because you don't like the manufacturer's naming scheme.

Active Member

Hi, everybody. I want to comment on something that might surprise people in the next few months when the EPA rated range of the Model 3 80D and Model 3 P80D are released. It is likely that these cars will share the 310 miles number for a few months. In other words, it is likely that we will see this scenario for a few months:

EPA rules don't require a subconfiguration to have its own EPA test as long as its sales don't exceed 33% of that category. In other words, all 80 kWh Model 3s can use the 310 miles number until the Model 3 80D reaches 33% of 80 kWh sales. This could take until August 2018. So don't be surprised.

This doesn't mean Tesla is taking cells out of the batteries of dual motor versions. This is just a technicality Tesla is able to make use of. For example, in 2013 when they had the Model S 85/P85/P85+, all three cars shared the 265 mi EPA rated range even though there was only one test done in 2012. I think Tesla will make use of this because their estimator shows 220 and 310 miles for dual motor versions.

The Model 3 80D will eventually have its own EPA test. My guess is, it will score 344 miles EPA and Tesla will voluntarily lower it to either 320 or 310 miles. This doesn't mean the car would actually have 344 miles real world range on average and Tesla is making it look like 310 or 320 miles. No, that's not the case because EPA rated range is already about 9% too optimistic.

For example, the Model S 75D has 259 miles EPA rated range but Consumer Reports tested the range at 65 mph (see this video) and they scored 235 miles. That means the EPA rated range is 235/259= 90.7% of real-world range at 65 mph. The voluntary reductions mean Model 3's advertised range will be much closer to real-world range than other Teslas. If Consumer Reports tests the Model 3 80, I think it will score 298 miles at 65 mph which would be 96.1% of advertised range. The Model 3 80D would score 309 miles.

Therefore voluntary reductions are a good thing in terms of making the advertised range numbers more realistic but the problem is, they make the Model S and Model 3 advertised range numbers uncomparable and misleading. Therefore I predict that the Model 3 80 and 80D will achieve more range than any 100 kWh Model S in hypermiling and the Model 3 80D will complete a cross-country trip in a shorter time than the Model S 100D.

Active Member

Hi, everybody. I want to comment on something that might surprise people in the next few months when the EPA rated range of the Model 3 80D and Model 3 P80D are released. It is likely that these cars will share the 310 miles number for a few months. In other words, it is likely that we will see this scenario for a few months:

EPA rules don't require a subconfiguration to have its own EPA test as long as its sales don't exceed 33% of that category. In other words, all 80 kWh Model 3s can use the 310 miles number until the Model 3 80D reaches 33% of 80 kWh sales. This could take until August 2018. So don't be surprised.

This doesn't mean Tesla is taking cells out of the batteries of dual motor versions. This is just a technicality Tesla is able to make use of. For example, in 2013 when they had the Model S 85/P85/P85+, all three cars shared the 265 mi EPA rated range even though there was only one test done in 2012. I think Tesla will make use of this because their estimator shows 220 and 310 miles for dual motor versions.

The Model 3 80D will eventually have its own EPA test. My guess is, it will score 344 miles EPA and Tesla will voluntarily lower it to either 320 or 310 miles. This doesn't mean the car would actually have 344 miles real world range on average and Tesla is making it look like 310 or 320 miles. No, that's not the case because EPA rated range is already about 9% too optimistic.

For example, the Model S 75D has 259 miles EPA rated range but Consumer Reports tested the range at 65 mph (see this video) and they scored 235 miles. That means the EPA rated range is 235/259= 90.7% of real-world range at 65 mph. The voluntary reductions mean Model 3's advertised range will be much closer to real-world range than other Teslas. If Consumer Reports tests the Model 3 80, I think it will score 298 miles at 65 mph which would be 96.1% of advertised range. The Model 3 80D would score 309 miles.

Therefore voluntary reductions are a good thing in terms of making the advertised range numbers more realistic but the problem is, they make the Model S and Model 3 advertised range numbers uncomparable and misleading. Therefore I predict that the Model 3 80 and 80D will achieve more range than any 100 kWh Model S in hypermiling and the Model 3 80D will complete a cross-country trip in a shorter time than the Model S 100D.

Active Member

Also interesting: will Tesla have the Model 3 LR just reflect around 310 mi when it's at 100%, or use the measured consumption as typical, resulting in a 334 mi shown range?

If Tesla took their time developing a really economical RWD motor for Model 3, more so than in Model S (and I do understand this to be true), there are fewer heat losses present in Model 3 non-D EPA cycles, and thus less range to be won by cleverly sharing the work between it and which-ever front motor will be placed.
Is there data of heat losses as a percentage of total available capacity over an EPA dyno cycle, Model S RWD vs Model 3? I would expect Model 3 to have lower losses.

Hi. The car was fully charged. See the first bullet point item here. The Bolt beat the Model S 75D and Tesla wasn't happy about that and they had some objections. However, Tesla is aware that the EPA rated range is too high. In fact, Tesla does not use EPA rated range anywhere outside of North America. Instead, they use a range unit they created called "Typical range". A new Model S 75D displays 241 miles Typical Range at 100% charge everywhere outside of North America.

Well-Known Member

Hi, @roflwaffle. If I understand correctly, your argument is, the 33% rule wouldn't allow Tesla to use the 310 mi EPA for Model 3 80/80D/P80D even when the 80D is still below 33% of sales because of the motor difference. I guess that's possible. I don't have any objections to this argument. The voluntary reductions make this point irrelevant.

What I wanted to point out was the fact that, even if Tesla and the EPA say that the Model 3 80D has 310 miles rated range (like the estimator implies), the car will still have about 10 miles more real-world range than the Model 3 80. If your version is correct and they end up having a second test for the Model 3 80D early on (maybe in May 2018), it might score around 344 mi and Tesla could voluntarily lower that to 310 or 320 miles.