Share this:

A turbulent, unpredictable primary election season that began seven months ago with a rowdy race to replace disgraced Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich ends with a political bang today with contests pitting Tea Party-backed candidates against establishment Republicans.

Two of the national GOP’s star Senate recruits are facing unexpectedly tough primary challenges in Delaware and New Hampshire from insurgent conservatives whose support has surged in the past month. And New York Republicans will decide whether center-right former Long Island congressman Rick Lazio or conservative Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino, a Tea Party favorite, will head the party’s statewide ticket this November.

Today’s primaries also include several heated Democratic primaries, including the first electoral test for New York Rep. Charlie Rangel, who faces a House ethics trial this fall, an uphill climb for Washington, D.C.’s embattled mayor and a nasty congressional race in Rhode Island.

Here are some of the most important questions that will be answered by voters today:

How strong is anti-establishment feeling among Northeastern Republicans?

Thus far, we’ve seen establishment favorites fall in Texas, Kentucky, Florida, Utah and Nevada, but we haven’t had a test of the GOP primary electorate in the more moderate political climes of the Northeast. We’ll learn a lot in a hurry. In New York, the GOP gubernatorial primary will be an important indicator. In Democratic-leaning Delaware, the state’s proudly moderate congressman, Mike Castle, is trying to turn back an aggressive challenge from proudly conservative communications consultant Christine O’Donnell. In Maryland, the establishment’s choice for governor, ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich, faces underfunded but enthusiastic conservative Brian Murphy. And in New Hampshire, Attorney General Kelly Ayotte finds herself squeezed between a moderate businessman and a conservative Republican activist.

Another wild card: The Delaware primary for Castle’s old House seat, where hard-line conservative has come out of nowhere to threaten the early frontrunner, Michele Rollins — who shares many of Castle’s moderate views without sharing his long track record of statewide electoral victories.

If any of the establishment favorites fall, it would be a shock to national Republicans. If all of them go down, it would put a giant exclamation point on a GOP primary season dominated by the party’s right wing.

How powerful is the Sarah Palin brand among Republicans?

Candidates backed by the former Alaska governor have won more than 80 percent of their primaries. But Palin hasn’t been tested in the Northeast. We’ll learn a lot on Tuesday. Palin is backing underdog conservatives O’Donnell in Delaware and Murphy in Maryland. But she, along with the New Hampshire Citizens for Life, backs Ayotte in the Granite State showdown. If O’Donnell shocks Castle in Delaware, Palin will get a lot of credit.

What happens when the Tea Party is divided?

That’s the case in both Delaware and New Hampshire. In New Hampshire, Palin is backing establishment favorite Ayotte while some other Tea Party factions and the influential Manchester Union-Leader are backing the most conservative candidate in the race, Ovide Lamontagne. In Delaware, Palin is backing O’Donnell while the grassroots group FreedomWorks is staying neutral.

“We’ve stayed out of that race because we’re not convinced that Christine O’Donnell can win,” said FreedomWorks President Matt Kibbe.

Surveys by Public Policy Polling show Tea Party Republicans evenly divided in New Hampshire between Lamontagne and Ayotte , but Tea Party loyalists overwhelmingly favor O’Donnell in Delaware, a longtime center of centrist Republicanism.

Will ethics charges end a legendary congressman’s career?

New York Rep. Charles Rangel lost his job as House Ways & Means Committee chairmen amid a House Ethics Committee probe of his personal finances. But Manhattan voters will decide Tuesday whether the 80-year-old lawmaker loses his job as representative of New York’s 15th congressional district.

The biggest thing Rangel has going for him is a divided opposition, which includes state Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV, the son of the man Rangel defeated 40 years ago, community activist and businesswoman Joyce Johnson, who is backed by the New York Times, and former Rangel aide Vince Morgan, a community banker. Republicans are hoping that Rangel survives so they can point to a case of Democratic voters backing ethically challenged incumbents.

Will a former Democratic rising star see his career flame out?

Four years ago, Washington mayor Adrian Fenty was the toast of the Democratic Party. An energetic 36-year-old reformer, he promised to weed out corruption in the city government and clean up a school system considered by many education experts to be the nation’s worst. But capital city voters seem to more concerned about Fenty’s abrasive personality than his public record. Polls show him trailing 67-year-old D.C. council chairman Vincent Gray.

Fenty publicly pleaded with President Obama for an endorsement. None was forthcoming.

Can Democrats lose another Kennedy seat?

First it was the Massachusetts Senate seat long represented by the late Ted Kennedy, which was captured in a special election by Republican Scott Brown. Now, it’s the Rhode Island House seat being surrendered by his son, Patrick, who decided earlier this year to retire from Congress at age 43.

The Democratic primary has been messy and self-destructive. Opponents have called the Democratic frontunner, Providence Mayor David Cicilline, dishonest and incompetent. Businessman Anthony Gemma calls him “possibly the most ineffective mayor in the city’s history.” But much like Rangel’s race, the opposition is split, with former Democratic state party chairman Bill Lynch appealing for blue-collar and union support and state Rep. David Segal attracting liberal votes.

Republican candidate John J. Loughlin II, also a state representative, is awaiting the winner — or should we say survivor?

Share this:

Rick Dunham of the Houston Chronicle is a leading expert on journalists' use of social media and niche web sites. He created Texas on the Potomac in 2007. He also is the president of the National Press Club Journalism Institute, the educational and charitable arm of the world's leading professional organization for journalists.

About Capitol Confidential

Capitol Confidential gathers the best coverage of New York politics and puts it all together. Each section - Capitol, The State Worker, New York on the Potomac, and Voices - represents a unique facet of the political scene. The Capitol section features coverage from the Times Union Capitol bureau. The State Worker is dedicated to state worker issues. New York on the Potomac offers news of interest to New Yorkers from Washington. And Voices features the best of everything else, pointing you to columnists and bloggers from across the Web.