SportsLine simulated the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational 10,000 times and has some surprising picks

by
CBS Sports Staff

Mar 14, 2018
• 2 min read

The PGA Tour is heading to Orlando, Florida, on Thursday for the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Tiger Woods, an eight-time winner of this event, is the Vegas favorite at 6/1, followed by Jason Day and Rickie Fowler at 12/1. Fowler opened at 20/1 before moving up the odds board.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over Woods at the Valspar Championship last week. Despite being a 25/1 long shot, the model projected him as a top contender. The result: Woods shot 70 or better all four days and finished tied for second place. Anybody who used their model had plenty of great value selections to choose from.

Now that the field for the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week: Patrick Reed, a 30/1 long shot, makes a serious run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Reed, who has not won on the PGA Tour since the 2016 Barclays, finished T2 along with Woods at the Valspar Championship after making bogey on the final hole. It was his best performance of the year and he will look to carry that momentum into this week's tournament at Bay Hill Club.

Reed has an Official World Golf Ranking of 23 and ranks in the top 30 on tour in sand save percentage at 56.16. He took fifth at the Hero World Challenge in December and finished 11th at the CJ Cup in October.

Another curveball: Marc Leishman, the 2017 champion, doesn't sniff the top 10. He's somebody to completely steer clear of this week.

Leishman was cut at the Genesis Open and finished 37th at the WGC-Mexico Championship. He's outside the top 100 on the PGA Tour in both driving accuracy percentage (55.66, 152nd) and greens in regulation percentage (65.56, 103rd).

Also, the model says four additional golfers with odds of 20/1 or longer will make a run at the Arnold Palmer Invitational title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.