"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision, author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

Sunday, 9 April 2017

Surfers making waves

On the Goldie

I went to Surfers Paradise on Friday on the Gold Coast.

Being a holiday destination, it's one of Australia's most volatile and cyclical housing markets.

It's not too hard to see why, with few height restrictions on building and apartment towers stretching almost as far as the eye can see.

The Gold Coast apartment market was one of Australia's hardest hit housing market sectors through the financial crisis - with a spectacular drop in prices - although apartment prices have been rising again steadily since early 2014.

The detached housing market at Surfers Paradise is now performing very strongly, with a combination of a lower dollar (which encourages tourism), interest from China, and the upcoming Commonwealth Games all being factors working in the region's favour.

The risk in such markets is that when prices rise apartment construction can go crazy leaving the market highly susceptible to corrections, with the ensuing oversupply amplifying the downturn.

To date median apartment prices are in many cases still below their 2009 levels, and have not risen far enough to result in widespread overbuilding, although there are some sites under construction.

Indeed, after accounting for the highly seasonal nature of the market, reported vacancy rates are clearly in a multi-year downtrend.

Source: SQM Research

An extremely speculative market, the fundamentals suggest a rising markets over the next couple of years or so until the next construction cycle delivers new supply in earnest (at which point it might be a good time to bail).