Political tide turning for Gov. Scott?

With 16 months left before his re-election bid, Gov. Rick Scott remains one of the most unpopular governors in America. Yet the political tide may be turning in his favor.

LLOYD DUNKELBERGERSARASOTA HERALD-TRIBUNE

TALLAHASSEE — With 16 months left before his re-election bid, Gov. Rick Scott remains one of the most unpopular governors in America. Yet the political tide may be turning in his favor, as Florida's economy is rising, dovetailing with Scott's 2010 promise to create more jobs. For Scott — who will be in Palm Coast tonight to give the keynote address at Flagler County Republicans' annual Lincoln Day Dinner — there are other signs an improving political viability as well. He has amassed millions in campaign donations — more than $6.6 million since the start of this year alone — raising the possibility he could again saturate the state's airwaves with his political message as he did in 2010. Perhaps the biggest positive for Scott at this point is that the Democrats have not settled on their candidate. Each of the potential major Democratic contenders has drawbacks. Former Gov. Charlie Crist, who has not declared his candidacy, is a one-time Republican who has become a Democrat and reversed himself on a number of issues, ranging from gay marriage to gun control. Former Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who is considering the race, has already been beaten by Scott. State Sen. Nan Rich, the only declared Democrat, has never waged a statewide campaign. Strategists say there is still time for the Democrats to coalesce around a candidate and that Scott, despite his positives, remains vulnerable. A Quinnipiac University poll last month showed that Scott's job approval rating has risen to a high of 43 percent — up from a rock-bottom 29 percent in 2011. Yet, 44 percent of voters still disapprove of his job performance and half of voters say he does not deserve to be re-elected. But the poll also showed a strong majority of voters gave Scott at least a little credit for the improving economy in the state. Screven Watson, a Democratic strategist, said Scott has been helped by a stronger economy as well as his policy reversals on issues like Medicaid expansion, election law changes and education funding. "Look at where he started and where he has ended up," Watson said. "He signed one of his budgets in The Villages with a Tea Party group. Now he's standing up for Medicaid expansion, teacher and state worker (pay) increases and that sort of stuff." Those are positives for Scott's re-election, Watson said, but "there's a big asterisk to that." "When people are polled or asked about him," Watson said, "there's just a visceral sort of dislike for this governor."

ECONOMIC ISSUES

In comparison to former Gov. Jeb Bush, Watson said some of Bush's policies may have been unpopular with many Floridians, but that was largely overridden by Bush's personal popularity — a political trait that Scott doesn't seem to possess. But until the Democrats settle on a challenger to Scott, Watson said the incumbent will have an advantage. "There's no dialogue going on here. ... He is sort of playing to an empty auditorium," Watson said. "There's no Democratic standard-bearer saying let's not forget who this guy is." Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist, said Scott has been helped by the economic revival. "People are seeing Rick Scott standing up and fighting for jobs and a stronger economic future for Florida," Wilson said. "That has a political impact. It's the right policy and right politics coming together at the right time." Scott has taken credit for Florida's brightening economic prospects. Last week he cited a new report from Moody's Investors Service, showing job growth in Florida is expected to exceed the national average this year and continue to do so through 2017. "This report is more proof that our economic policies of the last two years have put Florida's economy back on track," Scott said. "In a little over two years since I've taken office, we've created more than 330,000 private sector jobs — and we are now closing in on the halfway point to our goal of creating 700,000 jobs in seven years." Wilson said he expects the Democrats to ultimately unite behind a Crist candidacy, but he said the former Republican governor will raise "trust" issues with the rank-and-file Democrats. Wilson said the voters may acknowledge Crist's political ability but will want to know if he has made "the correct ideological transformation." "I think a lot of them have already come to that conclusion that they will take a guy with political skills over a person with a perfect track record," Wilson said.

HOT-BUTTON CANDIDATE

But he also said a Crist candidacy will provide an incentive for many Republicans. "He's definitely a hot button for people," Wilson said, adding that Crist "is not perfect" for Democrats. "He's got a lot of baggage. A lot of people will fight very passionately against him because he is a guy who changed uniforms in a battle." Rich, a former state senator from Broward County, said both Scott and Crist will raise questions with voters because of their policy reversals. Having held some 200 events around the state since she began her candidacy last year, Rich said she has not seen a surge in support for Scott, who narrowly beat Sink in the 2010 election. "There's not a level of trust," Rich said. "The bottom line is that people believe that we need to go in a new direction and have new leadership." Rich said similar issues could be raised about Crist, saying that is why she is running as a lifelong Democrat with a 12-year legislative record on the issues. "People might not agree with you on every issue, but they want to know you have core principles and values. That's what I bring to this race," Rich said. "Changing your mind 180 degrees on every major issues is another story — and that goes back to trust." Other factors impacting Scott's re-election bid include the expectation that voter turnout will be low. In the last two governor's races less than half of the registered voters turned out. "I think it's a concern for both parties," said Watson, the Democratic consultant. But a lower turnout could favor Scott if it brings out an older, less diverse electorate. Watson said the Democrats have learned their lesson from prior campaigns — including the low-turnout 2010 race — and have improved their ability to use absentee ballots and early-voting to get their voters to the polls. Presidential politics will also influence the campaign in the nation's largest swing state. Democrats will rely on support from President Barack Obama and his organization that helped deliver Florida in the last two presidential elections. Wilson said the outcome of the governor's race is equally critical to Republicans looking to reclaim the White House in 2016. He said losing the governor's race would represent "a severely negative outcome." "It would be a very big problem for national Republicans," Wilson said. "It is a very, very big deal."