Game Winner Dominates Tale of 2YO Tape

by Jeremy Plonk

December 10, 2018

Saturday’s Los Alamitos Futurity put a lid on 23 graded stakes this season for the 2-year-old males. To no one’s surprise, Bob Baffert ran 1-2 with Improbable and Mucho Gusto. The season’s last major juvenile stakes will be Sunday’s listed $400,000 Springboard Mile at Remington Park, which carries 10 official Kentucky Derby qualifying points to its winner (10-4-2-1 scale).

Here’s the tale of the tape from the 23 graded juvenile stakes of 2018:

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, American Pharoah and Del Mar Futurity winner Game Winner is the only multiple graded stakes winner in the crop, and he scored all three in Grade 1 company.

14 of the 23 winners were 5-to-2 or less, including 7 at even-money or less.

Only 3 of the 23 winners were 10-to-1 or more.

Favorites went 12-for-23 in the juvenile graded stakes for males.

Knicks Go at 70-1 in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland was the only winner above 17-1.

Instagrand at 1-10 in the Grade 2 Best Pal at Del Mar was the shortest-priced winner.

10 of the 23 races featured fields of 10 or more, but 9 offered fields of just 6 or fewer.

Bob Baffert led the way among trainers with 5 wins, followed by Todd Pletcher with 3 (2 on the turf). Other trainers with multiple graded wins were Chad Brown, Jerry Hollendorfer and Kenny McPeek with 2 each.

16 of the 23 races were on the dirt with 6 on turf and 1 on Tapeta (Woodbine’s Grade 3 Grey).

Candy Ride topped the sires with 4 wins – 3 by Game Winner as well as Vekoma’s Grade 3 Nashua score. Into Mischief was the only other sire with multiples, responsible for Grade 2 Remsen winner Maximus Mischief, Grade 2 Best Pal winner Instagrand and Grade 3 Sanford victor Sombeyay.

Damsire AP Indy accounted for 4 wins, a trio via Game Winner as well as Improbable in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. The only other damsire with multiple wins on this list is Speightstown, represented by sons Vekoma (Grade 3 Nashua) and Opry (Grade 3 With Anticipation on turf).

Given Justify’s rise from inactively to immortality last year, there will be a natural tendency for followers of the trail this year to be more lenient of those inexperienced at this stage. And lest we forget that Always Dreaming was a 2-race maiden heading into his sophomore campaign 2 years ago. Whether or not that makes for a change in the trends remains to be seen.

When you look at the last 10 Derby winners, 6 of them were stakes performers at age 2. But Animal Kingdom and Orb parlayed success with only their maiden-breaking victories in tow, while the aforementioned Always Dreaming and Justify came into their breakout seasons still seeking graduation from the maiden ranks.

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3.11.2019

All the Kentucky Derby top-20 lists got put to the public test this past weekend. We learned more about the class of 2019 from $282,199 actually wagered in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager than all the editorial ideas put together. Mine included.
Here are some interesting takeaways from the actual real polling (done with more than $600,000 wagered in the win pools of the KDFW 2 and 3):
Game Winner is slightly less fancied now ($14.20 return) than he was in pool 2 ($13.40) and pool 1 ($13.80). Yet, he hasn’t run since any of those wagering offerings. Meanwhile, stablemate Improbable also hasn’t run since pool 2, yet is more fancied now ($14) as the slight individual favorite than he was then ($17.60). If you’re reading the XBTV workout tea leaves, you can tell people have been paying attention to the morning drills as Improbable has earned slightly better reviews.
Hidden Scroll was co-second choice at $17.60 in pool 2, but his Xpressbet Fountain of Youth loss has inflated his price to $25.40 though still third choice. In other words, they still haven’t found anyone better after the loss, but confidence has waned some on the horse himself.
War of Will dropped from $36.80 in pool 2 to $27 this time around, a slight sign of increased appreciation since winning the Risen Star in-between, but not a full buy-in. He’s a 2-time graded stakes winner in the 2019 calendar year and fourth choice behind a trio of horses 1: 0-0-0 in stakes this season. Further evidence that the public hasn’t fondly treated Fair Grounds is Risen Star runner-up Country House let go as a $61 offering.
Bourbon War has gone from $64.80 in Pool 2 to now a $27.80 fifth individual choice on the back of his Xpressbet Fountain of Youth runner-up. Like his running style, he’s picking up steam the farther we go.
Code of Honor beat Bourbon War and Hidden Scroll in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth, but that didn’t carry over to the KDFW confidence meter. He’s the $31.60 sixth choice in the individual ranks, circling back his reputation in some fashion. He was taken off the roll for KDFW Pool 2 after running fourth as the odds-on favorite in the Mucho Macho Man in January. Last fall, he was fifth wagering individual choice at $39.40 in Pool 1. So you can see he’s almost regained that status, but there’s not a total buy-in for the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth result.
The biggest reputation restoration was Roadster. A $66.60 proposition in KDFW Pool 1 in the fall, and sort of written off out of sight, out of mind in Pool 2 when not offered as a betting interest. He’s all the way down to $35.60 now and seventh choice in Pool 3 after his March 1 allowance return win. Without a doubt, the public spoke that they liked this. At $56.40, it’s clear that Baffert stablemate Mucho Gusto, the Lewis winner headed to Sunland, hasn’t won the minds of the public as much as the flashier Roadster.
A bit more surprising to me than what we saw with Hidden Scroll’s Xpressbet Fountain of Youth loss not being much of a public deal-breaker, so, too, remained their confidence in Instagrand after finishing third in Saturday’s Gotham at a short price. That Instagrand is only a $36.40 return is a sign the public will likely bet him back next time he runs with some forgiveness. It would seem the ‘needed-the-race’ and ‘pace casualty’ crowd are in greater numbers than those ready to bail.
The individual favorites around $14 now are par for the course. Justify was a $14.40 favorite at this point last year (before the Santa Anita Derby) and dropped to $8.40 in pool 4 (after). McCraken, yes him, led the way 2 years ago at this stage at $15.60. You could have gotten American Pharoah as a very lukewarm favorite at $18.20 at this point in 2015.
The all-others at $11.80 also is very representative and normal. It’s been $10, $12.40, $13.20 and $10.60 in most recent years. That tells us the public has the same defensive feel about this crop as any other; nothing abnormal to see here.
Here’s the complete KDFW Pool 3 final odds. Horses in order of favoritism in the three-day March 8-10 KDFW Pool 3 (Odds and $2 Win Will Pays):
#24 “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (9-2, $11.80)
#11 Improbable (6-1, $14)#7 Game Winner (6-1, $14.20)#10 Hidden Scroll (11-1, $25.40)#21 War of Will (12-1, $27)#2 Bourbon War (12-1, $27.80)#3 Code of Honor (14-1, $31.60)#16 Roadster (16-1, $35.80)#12 Instagrand (17-1, $36.40)#6 Galilean (22-1, $47.40)#15 Mucho Gusto (27-1, $56.40)#4 Country House (29-1, $61)#9 Harvey Wallbanger (33-1, $69.40)#23 Win Win Win (34-1, $71.40)#18 Spinoff (36-1, $74.40)#20 Vekoma (37-1, $76.40)#1 Anothertwistafate (38-1, $78.80)#17 Signalman (38-1, $79.60)#8 Gunmetal Gray (43-1, $89)#14 Mind Control (55-1, $113.60)#5 Dream Maker (56-1, $114.40)#19 Tax (59-1, $120.60)#13 Intrepid Heart (63-1, $129.80)#22 Well Defined (216-1, $435.40)

2.25.2019

Seven of the most promising 2-year-olds of 2018 have yet to start at age 3. But that’s about to change in a big hurry. Two are slated for returns in important bi-coastal allowance races this Friday; two more are expected in Saturday’s Xpressbet Fountain of Youth; the remaining three are on target for the San Felipe a week from Saturday. We are just 12 days away from knowing so much more about the 2019 Triple Crown chase than we know today. The Friday returnees are Roadster in a Santa Anita allowance race and Mucho in a Gulfstream Park allowance. Roadster was considered Bob Baffert’s hottest shot going into Del Mar last summer. He won his debut with ease and then was a surprising runner-up at 3-5 in the G1 Del Mar Futurity to barnmate Game Winner, who would go on to add the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 2-year-old title. On the east coast, Mucho broke his maiden by nearly 10 lengths at Saratoga before finishing second in the G1 Hopeful and going to the sidelines. Bill Mott has had an exemplary winter already at GP with Hidden Scroll and Country House making statements. But Mucho still may be his best. The Friday tests are varying in that Mucho runs just 6 furlongs, but faces what appears to be an overmatched field and he should roll. Roadster, on the other hand, has a 1-mile assignment (his first around 2 turns), and meets respected maiden winner Nolo Contesto as well as stablemate Dessman, runner-up by a nose in the San Vicente. I won’t be shocked to see Dessman eventually scratch. Saturday’s comebacking duo in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth is expected to be comprised of Signalman and Vekoma. Entries will be drawn Wednesday for the key tune-up for the Florida Derby. Signalman won Churchill Downs’ G2 Kentucky Jockey Club on the heels of a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for Kenny McPeek. That barn already has won the Holy Bull this GP meet with Harvey Wallbanger, but (pun intended) would be happy to pour a double. Meanwhile, Vekoma has been training very well for George Weaver, easily out-working millionaire Breaking Lucky in a recent drill seen at XBTV.com. Vekoma is 2-for-2, including a victory in the G3 Nashua. He’s beaten some solid sophomores like Network Effect, Caul Paul and Mihos, but the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth would be his stiffest, and longest, test to date. And that leaves the potential trio of smashers for the March 9 San Felipe. Champion Game Winner (pictured above) has been aimed at this spot all winter by Bob Baffert. Now he’s talking about Improbable, the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity winner, also considering the San Felipe and limiting road trips early in the season. That alone would make for some March Madness. But then add in Instagrand, last seen winning Del Mar’s G2 Best Pal in August by 10 lengths; that’s the same margin he won his debut by last summer and sits a sparkling 2-for-2 by 20 lengths. Jerry Hollendorfer’s $1.2 million Into Mischief colt has worked in scintillating fashion of late as seen at XBTV.com. The San Felipe could be as compelling a mid-season Triple Crown prep as I’ve scouted in the 14 years of Countdown to the Crown. So while the calendar flips to March by week’s end, we’ve been treated to some very good performances in the sophomore class already. No one has been more impressive in 2019 than dual-Fair Grounds stakes winner War of Will. Baffert’s Mucho Gusto looked the part in the Lewis Memorial. Mind Control’s Jerome put him ahead of New York’s winter warriors. The scene in Florida and Arkansas has been more chaotic with huge upsets in the Holy Bull and Southwest. But starting this Friday, March 1, the roll call of sophomore stars will pick up in intensity at a very rapid pace. A dozen days from now things could look radically different in the division. These seven important stakes returnees from last year will have a big say in how we feel about this class. I personally can’t wait … TGIF, TGIF, TGIF ...