4 Preface The year 2011 began with extremely wet soil conditions over much of the northern plains in the north central United States. By early March, significant snow had accumulated over the same region resulting in one of the highest snow-water equivalents on record. Snowmelt and spring precipitation caused excessive runoff in much of the Ohio and Upper Mississippi River Basins by late March. The annual northward migration of warm, moist air from the Gulf Coast region following the retreat of cool, dry winter air is a rite of spring in the central United States. This event typically brings several episodes of severe weather and flooding rains, temporally and spatially, across broad reaches of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. During the spring of 2011, the frontal zone between these two air masses moved little between April 15 and May 5. An active jet stream brought several weather disturbances eastward across the stalled frontal boundary, resulting in numerous episodes of thunderstorms accompanied by deadly tornadoes, hail, high winds, and flooding rains. The hardest hit areas stretched from eastern Oklahoma, northeast across the Middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys into northeastern Kentucky. As water drained into the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, channels already full from a wet spring were unable to handle the additional runoff. The volume of water moving downstream along the Mississippi River exceeded that experienced during the 1937, 1973, and 2008 floods and caused record flooding at many points from Cairo, IL, to the Gulf of Mexico. In response to the tragic effects of this event, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s National Weather Service formed a Service Assessment Team to evaluate the National Weather Service s performance before and during the historic flooding. The findings and recommendations from this assessment will improve the quality of National Weather Service products and services, and enhance awareness of flash and river flooding. iv

6 Appendices Appendix A: Acronyms... A-1 Appendix B: Definitions... B-1 Appendix C: Findings, Recommendations, & Best Practices... C-1 Appendix D: Methodology... D-1 Appendix E: WFO JAN Flood Exercise & Outreach Plan... E-1 Figures Figure 1: 14-Day Percentage of Normal Precipitation (April 23, 2011 May 7, 2011)... 2 Figure 2: Surface weather map for April 25, Figure 3: 500-Millibar Height Contour map for April 25, Figure 4: Twenty-Four-hour rainfall for period ending 7 a.m. EST April 25, Figure 5: Observed precipitation from April 15 to May 6, The central focus of rainfall was the Mississippi and Ohio River confluence area near Cairo, IL Figure 6: MR&T Project Design Flood... 7 Figure 7: HPC Aggregated Day 1 QPF (left) and Aggregated RFC Day 1 QPF (right) from 12Z April 15 through 12Z May 6, Figure 8: This map depicts the placement of all NWS RFCs and respective areas of hydrologic responsibility, with LMRFC area highlighted in red Figure 9: LMRFC individual river basin status maps color coded for magnitude of current stage at each forecast point Figure 10: Ohio and Mississippi River hydrographs on a single page (left side) and Ohio and Mississippi River forecasts integrated into a single product (right side) Figure 11: Selectable display and color-coded status of all river forecast points on a Google- Earth map background Figure 12: Stage versus discharge on the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, MS, depicting the loop-rating effect that occurred at this location during floods in 1973, 2008, and 2011 (2011 data are preliminary). Source: LMRFC Figure 13: This graph contains the stage versus discharge on the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, MS, showing a pronounced loop-rating effect during the 2011 Mississippi River Valley Flood (2011 data are preliminary). Source: LMRFC Figure 14: This figure shows the WFO JAN Graphicast for Mississippi River Forecast Points issued at 7:43 a.m. CDT on Monday, May 16, Figure 15: This figure shows the WFO JAN Graphicast for Mississippi River Backwater Forecast Points issued at 7:58 a.m. CDT, on Monday, May 16, Figure 16: Flood inundation map created by USACE Vicksburg District representing potential flood impacts for NWS forecasted river crests along the Mississippi River Figure 17: High water marks in Port Gibson, MS, on May 19, Figure 18: This figure shows the disparity of forecast responsibility between WFO LIX and WFO LCH for the same geographic area on the Atchafalaya River Figure 19: This figure shows the flood potential outlook for expected flooding along the Atchafalaya River, issued at 1:33 p.m. CDT on Thursday, May 19, vi

7 Figure 20: LIX flood potential outlook along the Lower Mississippi River issued at 1:21 p.m. CDT on Thursday, May 19, Figure 21: USACE districts along the Mississippi River Table 1: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Tables April precipitation totals for observing stations in the Middle Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys experiencing their wettest month on record LMRFC forecast points where existing record flood stages were equaled or exceeded (courtesy of LMRFC)... 6 LMRFC forecast points where major flood stages were equaled or exceeded (courtesy of LMRFC)... 6 NWS river stage crest forecasts issued on May 2, 2011, for selected forecast points along the Mississippi River versus the actual river stage crest vii

9 Executive Summary Widespread flooding occurred across the Lower Ohio and Middle and Lower Mississippi River Valleys from late April into early June 2011 due to a combination of runoff from record snowmelt and unprecedented heavy rainfall in late April and early May. Within a 2-week period, extreme precipitation totals in excess of 20 inches ( percent above normal) were recorded in some tributary basins. As water drained into the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, channels already full from a wet spring were unable to handle the additional water. Record flooding was experienced from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers at Cairo, IL downstream to the Gulf of Mexico. The volume of water moving downstream along the Middle and Lower Mississippi River exceeded that experienced during the floods of 1937, 1973, and This 2011 flood was the first time the Birds Point/New Madrid Floodway, Morganza Floodway, and the Bonnet Carre Spillway were operated concurrently. In the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center s (LMRFC) hydrologic service area alone, record flood levels were equaled or established at 16 river forecast locations. Some 86 sites experienced at least minor flooding. Many National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) were involved in long-term hydrologic operations, with five offices (Paducah, KY; Memphis, TN; Jackson, MS; Lake Charles, LA; and Slidell, LA) particularly impacted. One death was directly attributed to the flooding and thousands of homes and businesses were adversely impacted by flood waters. Direct damage to buildings and infrastructure, costs to erect new levees, maintain and fortify existing levees, and impact to commerce was estimated in the billions of dollars. The extent and magnitude of flooding in the Middle and Lower Mississippi River Basin prompted a major response by the NWS, emergency managers (EM) and other responders, state and local governments, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The assessment team concluded that long lead times provided by NWS forecasts and warnings and NWS coordination with critical partners such as USACE, USGS, emergency management, and media provided the public with ample opportunity to take mitigative action weeks in advance of the flood. NWS river stage forecasts were accurate in both magnitude and time of occurrence, with river crests at some forecast locations verifying to within 1 foot and 1 day of what was predicted 2 weeks earlier. Critical partners interviewed by the assessment team complimented the products, services, collaboration, and coordination NWS provided in advance of and throughout the flood event. Many EM directors indicated that nothing caught their respective counties by surprise. This is one of the long-standing visions of the NWS, taken from the NWS Strategic Plan for ix

10 , to be America s no surprise Weather Service that can be trusted when needed the most. The assessment team, however, did identify areas where changes to NWS products, collaboration, and methodologies could provide an even higher level of services. The following are the key findings and recommendations from this assessment: Key Findings: 1. The demand for NWS interpretive services by Emergency Operation Centers (EOCs) continues to increase and is consistent with the NWS goal to improve Decision (Support) Services (DSS) for events that threaten lives and livelihoods. The utility of NWS interpretive services is greatest when provided by NWS staff that understand and apply Incident Command System (ICS) principles. Not all NWS operational personnel are prepared to provide the level of interpretive support that is needed. 2. Several NWS offices and county and state-level emergency management (EM) officials expressed concern over differences between Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) and County Warning Area (CWA) boundaries. Not all partners were sure about which NWS office to contact to acquire or provide specific hydrometeorological information. NWS offices incurred increased workload relaying phone-based hydrologic information received by one office to another, and duplicating hydrologic forecasts using differing hydrologic product titles to ensure a single-office source. 3. Current forecast methods did not adequately capture backwater storage areas and the impact of potential levee failures, or provide quality inundation mapping. A Community Model (i.e., advanced 1D and 2D hydraulic models built with new Light Detection and Ranging [LIDAR], Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System [HEC-RAS], and/or others) for the Lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers and their tributaries would allow the NWS and other partners to provide more precise and well-collaborated river stage and water routing forecasts. 4. For the 2011 Middle and Lower Mississippi River Valley Flood, inundation mapping was widely needed but not readily available. Some EMs created impromptu inundation maps. Interviews with residents in the Memphis area who evacuated their homes indicated they valued having the inundation information. 5. Augmenting LMRFC staff was difficult because of the necessary training and familiarization with LMRFC mainstem Mississippi River forecasting operations using complex hydrologic models. 6. WFO Jackson, MS, (JAN) received reports that major flooding was occurring along the Yazoo River at Yazoo City. Flood categories in effect at the time, as defined in Weather Service (WS) Form E-19, equated to moderate flooding. Because of existing national policy (NWS Directive ), changes could not be made quickly to WFO Hydrologic Forecast System (WHFS) E-19 flood categories to provide a more representative x

11 hydrologic category in NWS flood warnings and Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Web pages. 7. The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency Director and several media partners stated that acquiring AHPS Website information or more generic Web-based water- and weather-related information was convoluted, cumbersome, and non-intuitive. Key Recommendations: 1. The NWS, in collaboration with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, should define prototype ICS principles (i.e., engaged partnerships; tiered response; scalable, flexible operational capabilities; unity of effort through unity of command; preparedness; and readiness to act) at one or more NWS operational offices to assess which ICS principles NWS can practically adopt, then develop a training and implementation plan for all operational offices and regional support centers. 2. NWS regions and their respective WFOs should work with critical partners to determine where realignment of disparate CWA and HSA boundaries is both warranted and feasible to limit spatial discontinuity and enhance service-related issues. 3. The NWS should collaborate with USACE to develop a Community Model for the Lower Mississippi River, including the Atchafalaya River and its tributary storage areas. 4. The NWS should create and implement a plan through the Integrated Water Resources Science and Services initiative, which is evaluating flood inundation mapping activities between USACE, USGS, and the NWS, to explore opportunities to partner with other water agencies and accelerate the implementation of inundation mapping nationwide or develop new methods for creating these maps such as dynamically from the community 1-D/2-D hydraulic model. 5. The NWS should develop a more robust cross-training program for RFC staff that identifies unique forecasting and collaborative complexities present during a historic flooding event on controlled waterways, and should develop a comprehensive plan to ensure that RFCs can quickly request deployments of fully-trained and experienced hydrologic forecasters from other offices for forecasting complex mainstem river systems using hydraulic models. 6. NWS Headquarters (NWSH) should streamline the process for modifying E-19 flood categories in the WHFS database to ensure representative hydrologic categories are provided in NWS flood warnings and AHPS Web pages during an ongoing event. 7. The NWS should provide Web services for weather and water information in which users of varying degrees of technical expertise can obtain information compatible with their needs. xi

12 Service Assessment Report 1. Introduction 1.1. Purpose of Assessment Report This report presents findings and recommendations regarding National Weather Service (NWS) performance during the historic river flooding that occurred in the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley from late April into early June The areas most impacted were the lower reaches of the Ohio River and associated tributaries and from the confluence of the Mississippi River and Ohio Rivers at Cairo, IL, downstream to the Gulf of Mexico, where a combination of runoff from upstream snowmelt and excessive spring rainfall combined to adversely impact property and commerce over a broad geographic area. Prolific spring rains and associated runoff from two separate slow-moving weather systems in late April and early May contributed to flash flooding of small streams and creeks, and flooding of major waterways in other areas in the central part of the nation outside of the primary assessment area; however, the nature and scale of these events did not necessitate detailed inclusion in this report. The objectives of this assessment are to identify effective operations, significant findings and best practices, and to recommend remedial actions to address service deficiencies. This report focuses on the following key areas: Timeliness, quality, accuracy, and usefulness of NWS products and services Effectiveness of NWS internal and external coordination/collaboration including Decision Support Services (DSS) Effectiveness of NWS end-to-end information dissemination Efficiency of product delivery Effectiveness of NWS office procedures, processes, and staffing levels Effectiveness of NWS flood awareness activities Degree to which recommendations from the 2010 flood assessment were implemented and, if so, their impact 1.2. Methodology The NWS formed an assessment team to evaluate the NWS performance during the spring 2011 Middle and Lower Mississippi River floods. The team interviewed the staff from Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and River Forecast Offices (RFCs) in affected area, obtained information from Central Region Headquarters (CRH) and Southern Region Headquarters (SRH) Regional Operations Center (ROC) personnel, visited damaged areas, and interviewed emergency managers (EM), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), U.S. Coast Guard (USCG), media, and the public in impacted areas. The team also reviewed products and services from the WFOs, RFCs, and Hydrologic Prediction Center (HPC). Details are provided in Appendix D, Methodology.

13 2. Hydrometeorological Summary Widespread flooding occurred across the Lower Ohio Valley and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley during spring 2011 due to a combination of runoff from record snowmelt and unprecedented heavy rainfall in late April and early May. Twenty-inch ( percent above normal) precipitation amounts were recorded in some tributary basins within a 2-week period (Figure 1). Figure 1: 14-Day Percentage of Normal Precipitation (April 23, 2011 May 7, 2011) As water drained into the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, channels already full from a wet spring were unable to handle the additional flow. The volume of water moving downstream along the Middle and Lower Mississippi River exceeded that experienced during the 1937, 1973, and 2008 floods and caused record flooding at many points from Cairo, IL, to the Gulf of Mexico. This flooding prompted a major response by the NWS, USACE, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), USCG, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), EMs, state and local governments, and other first responders. 2

14 2.1. Antecedent and Event Conditions Autumn 2010 brought copious rainfall to the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Rainfall in Minnesota and Wisconsin was 150 to 200 percent of normal, producing record flows on several streams. These moist conditions resulted in a near-record winter flow on the Mississippi above Saint Louis, MO. Winter precipitation was near normal in the Middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, but was again in the 150 to 200 percent above normal range across the Upper Mississippi River Valley (Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa). Melting of the substantial winter snowpack was slow and protracted, and led to very high, sustained river flows on Mississippi River tributaries. This water helped produce late spring peak flows that coincided with heavy rainfall on the Middle Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys in late April and early May. In mid-april, the leading edge of a very warm, moist air mass, in the form of a warm front, advanced north into the central United States before becoming stationary near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. The surface weather map for April 25 (Figure 2) reflects the meteorological situation over the region from the latter half of April to early May Figure 2: Surface weather map for April 25, 2011 The 500-Millibar height map for the same day (Figure 3) reflects a very stable long-wave upper atmospheric pattern. A deep trough was anchored along the eastern flanks of the Rockies, with blocking high pressure ridges off the southeast and southwest coasts. This weather pattern resulted in a persistent southwesterly flow of air aloft over the central and eastern United States. Embedded in this flow was a series of potent, mid-level short waves that interacted with the frontal boundary already in place to produce several periods of intense convective rainfall. 3

15 Figure 3: 500-Millibar Height Contour map for April 25, 2011 The map in Figure 4 illustrates one of several similar 24-hour precipitation events that occurred from late April into early May. Figure 4: Twenty-Four-hour rainfall for period ending 7 a.m. EST April 25, 2011 Total rainfall for April 15 to May 6 is shown in Figure 5. A broad expanse of the central United States from Tulsa OK, to Cincinnati, OH, received 10 inches to more than 20 inches of rain. 4

16 Figure 5: Observed precipitation from April 15 to May 6, The central focus of rainfall was the Mississippi and Ohio River confluence area near Cairo, IL. Considering observing stations in the Mississippi Basin with 90 or more years of observations, 49 experienced the wettest April on record. Seven of these stations recorded their wettest month ever (Table 1). This extreme rainfall, on top of the already swollen Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, produced record flood crests from Cairo, IL, to the Gulf of Mexico. Table 1: April precipitation totals for observing stations in the Middle Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys experiencing their wettest month on record. Station April Rainfall (inches) Poplar Bluff, MO Du Quin, IL Portsmouth, OH Fairfield, OH Chester, IL Olney, IL Farmers, KY In the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center s (LMRFC) Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), record levels were equaled or established at 16 NWS river forecast locations (Table 2). There were 86 sites that experienced flooding: major, 28 sites (Table 3); moderate, 25 sites; and minor, 33 sites. 5

18 streams, creeks, and major waterways, but the relative magnitude and extent of impact did not warrant detailed inclusion in this report. The USACE referred to this flood as The Great Flood of 2011 in the fall 2011 edition of its quarterly publication titled Our Mississippi. The event surpassed all floods since the Great Flood of Following the flood of 1927, a theoretical flood was developed by the Mississippi River Commission with input from the Weather Bureau, now the NWS. The Mississippi River & Tributaries (MR&T) Project Design Flood (Figure 6) is based on a hypothetical worst-case maximum probable flood scenario of three rain events in the Lower Mississippi River Valley occurring 3 days apart. The USACE used this scenario to design and execute flood protection (e.g., erection of levees, straightening of channels, and creation of backwater areas) in the Mississippi River Valley. Figure 6: MR&T Project Design Flood Engineering improvements resulting from the Project Design Flood allowed a greater flow to travel down the river at lower stages. For example, the 2011 flood at Vicksburg, MS, is believed to have had a flow comparable to the 1927 flood (approximately 2.3 million cubic feet per second). It is estimated that the river stage at Vicksburg, MS, would have reached 62.2 feet in 1927 if the levees had not failed; however, in 2011, the stage at Vicksburg, MS, reached only 57.1 feet a difference of more than 5 feet, and a testimony to USACE flood mitigative efforts undertaken through the years. Despite the magnitude of the flooding during the spring of 2011, loss of life and damage could have been much more extensive. A severe to extreme drought along the lower reaches of the Mississippi River, mainly in Mississippi and Louisiana, resulted in reduced runoff. 7

19 WFOs from Paducah, KY, to the Gulf of Mexico issued hydrologic outlooks over a month before the main flood wave impacted their respective County Warning Areas (CWA). River stage forecasts were also temporally and spatially accurate in forecasting the anticipated flood event, providing the public with long lead times to take appropriate mitigative action. Table 4: NWS river stage crest forecasts issued on May 2, 2011, for selected forecast points along the Mississippi River versus the actual river stage crest. Forecast River Stage (ft.)/ Actual River Stage (ft.)/ Date of Occurrence Date of Occurrence Memphis 48.0 May May 10 Helena 56.0 May May 13 Arkansas City 53.5 May May 16 Greenville 64.5 May May 17 Vicksburg 57.5 May May 19 Natchez 65.0 May May Impacts Fatalities One fatality was directly attributed to the flooding along the Mississippi River. A man drowned attempting to cross a field flooded with moving water Damage Flooding resulted in extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure, and impacted commerce. Considerable effort was expended to fortify and repair compromised levees, and erect new ones. Costs were estimated in excess of $2 billion. President Obama declared the western counties of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi federal disaster areas. For the first time since 1973, the Morganza Spillway was opened to avert a levee breach and subsequent flooding of Baton Rouge and New Orleans, LA. The opening of this spillway flooded approximately 4,600 square miles of rural Louisiana downstream from the spillway along and near the Atchafalaya River. Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, and the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway On May 3, 2011, upon direction from the Mississippi River Commission (MRC) President, the USACE executed the water control plan at the Birds Point/New Madrid Floodway, which included opening of the spillway. Operation of the floodway is part of the flood risk management plan for the Lower Mississippi River to reduce flood stages and ease pressure on the entire system during flood events. Opening the levee displaced approximately 200 residents in Mississippi and New Madrid Counties, MO, and flooded approximately 130,000 acres of farmland. 8

20 The Farm Bureau estimated damage of approximately $250 million in the New Madrid Floodway, including public infrastructure, private property, crop production, and commerce. River flood damage in McCracken County, KY, and Massac County, IL, immediately upstream from Cairo, IL, was estimated at $10 million. Tennessee Public assistance figures used by the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) in its request for a disaster declaration totaled almost 1,500 individuals with $7.1 million damage. According to FEMA, Dyersburg experienced some of the worst flooding in the state with over 600 homes and businesses inundated as the Forked Deer River, a tributary of the Mississippi River, flowed backward into southern areas of the city. In downtown Memphis, 5,200 residents of the Harbor Town neighborhood were evacuated as the Mississippi River rose to 48.0 feet on May 10. This level was the highest in Memphis since the 1937 flood when the river reached a record 48.7 feet. Subsequent flooding occurred in Millington, as well as suburban areas of Frayser, Bartlett, and East Memphis. Arkansas Arkansas Department of Emergency Management (ADEM) and FEMA representatives estimated the cost of restoring facilities and infrastructure to pre-disaster condition in Crittenden, Lee, Mississippi, and Phillips counties at $1.7 million. Mississippi In Mississippi, the flood crest moved down the Mississippi River between May 15 and May 21, Major flood stage levels continued for several days following the crest. Substantial backwater flooding occurred in many of the tributaries, including the Yazoo River. Forecast points at Vicksburg and Natchez experienced a flood of record, while the Mississippi at Greenville crested 1 foot below the record. Nine casinos on stationary barges in Tunica County were closed during the peak of the flood. On May 15, the Harrah's Tunica reported nearly 6 feet of water inside the hotel. In Wilkinson County, all communities north and west of Highway 24 were inundated and evacuated. Record flooding occurred in the Fort Adams area. Hundreds of properties and several roads were impacted and required evacuation of almost 1,000 people. Numerous roads along the Mississippi River and in the Mississippi Delta were closed for several days during the flood, including Highway 465 in Warren and Issaquena counties near Vicksburg. Backwater flooding from the Big Black and Yazoo Rivers closed U.S. Highway 61 South between Vicksburg and Port Gibson and North near Redwood, respectively. All four main federal/state highways across the lower Yazoo River Valley were inundated at various locations. The road closures eliminated north-south highway access into Vicksburg. 9

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