The Real Value Of Player’s Value

I have been doing a lot of mock drafts lately, in both redraft and dynasty formats, and I have noticed a certain trend that to me is just perplexing. That trend is the value of QB’s being far too high in people’s minds. QB’s statistically are not the way to win by drafting early, but yet they continually do. Just this past week I have seen Drew Brees go as high as pick #6! It seems that the consensus for the people who pick QB’s early is that they are safe and they score a lot of points. I agree with both statements… However if the majority of QB’s are safe and score a lot of points then why are ANY being taken early? I sat down in my thinking chair (it’s a replica from the chair used in the children’s show “Blue Clues”) and came to the realization that these people must not understand VBD (that is value based drafting and not some sort of STD) or they do not know what it is.

Since the draft season is in full swing now, I will show you what exactly VBD is and why you should consider it when you are drafting for your redraft or dynasty league. Also this is just a side note but after doing this research I noticed that a lot of sites and magazines are just phoning it in by calling Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Jimmy Graham the top players at their position.

Let’s start this off with the QB’s that are so safe and consistent that we must take them in the first few rounds. These are the 2012 QB’s and their point totals in order from best to worst. Since Kaepernick didn’t play the whole season he was not a top 12 QB.

(4pts per TD, 1pt per 25 yards)

Drew Brees – 345.58

Aaron Rodgers – 344.92

Tom Brady – 340.28

Cam Newton – 323.46

RGIII – 319.74

Peyton Manning – 311.38

Matt Ryan – 304.56

Tony Romo – 279.92

Matthew Stafford – 276.7

Andrew Luck – 276.46

Russell Wilson – 275.62

Andy Dalton – 250.76

As we can see there are groups of QB’s. The first real drop off is from Matt Ryan to Tony Romo and then again from Russell Wilson to Andy Dalton. Now by no means is Andy Dalton considered anything more than a QB2 this year with Kaepernick taking San Fran by storm. Let’s do the math… The difference between Brees (QB1) and Luck (QB10) was 69.12 points. The difference between Brees (QB1) and Dalton (QB12) was 94.82 points. Well that seems like a big number. It does until we get to…

The RB’s who are the real difference makers in most leagues. Any “expert” or “guru” will tell you to go RB early and to get the guys who are play makers with upside. Most everyone starts 2 RB’s which means whether you are in a 10 team or 12 team league that a minimum of 20 – 24 RB’s are started. Not counting the flex spot that a lot of leagues do of course.

(1pt ppr, 1pt per 10 yards, 6pts per TD)

Adrian Peterson – 347.4

Doug Martin – 311.6

Arian Foster – 300.8

Ray Rice – 283.1

Marshawn Lynch – 269.6

CJ Spiller – 255.3

Trent Richardson – 254.7

Alfred Morris – 251.3

Jamaal Charles – 240.9

Frank Gore – 230.6

Matt Forte – 221.4

Darren Sproles – 216.1

Chris Johnson – 210.9

Reggie Bush – 206.8
Stevan Ridley – 205.4

Steven Jackson – 200.3

LeSean McCoy – 199.3

Shonn Greene – 186.4

Mikel Leshoure – 183.2

Ahmad Bradshaw – 179

Michael Turner – 176.1

Benjarvus Green-Ellis – 173.8

Danny Woodhead – 156.7

Joique Bell – 155.9

See how big of a drop off that becomes? You need top RB’s, having Drew Brees, Darren Sproles, and Ahmad Bradshaw (740pts) will not beat out Russell Wilson, Ray Rice, and Matt Forte (779 pts). Since AP had a phenomenal year last year it would be unfair to show the difference with his numbers. Instead we will use Doug Martin (RB2), the difference between Martin and Sproles (RB12) was 95.5 points. Well it seems like my whole thing about QB’s was wrong and now I have to apolog… NOT SO FAST! Leagues start 2 RB’s and that is not including the flex spot! This means 24 backs will be started at minimum versus 12 QB’s. The difference between Martin (RB2) and Joique Bell (RB24) was 155.7 points. Most leagues have 10 RB’s going in the first round this year, DO you really want too pass that up for a QB?

I hear you people in the back crying out “well that doesn’t apply to my get 2 top WR’s or get a WR and a QB with my first 2 picks”. Ahem… yes it does. WR’s are a dime a dozen as well and while they should be drafted higher than QB’s, they shouldn’t be going higher than the top 12 RB’s. Besides Calvin Johnson… He is a fantasy dreamboat! :) <3 OMGLOLWHAT! #CalvinJohnsonBeMyBabiesDaddy

(1 pt ppr, 1 pt per 10 yards, 6 pts per TD)

Calvin Johnson – 342.4

Brandon Marshall – 334.6

AJ Green – 299.8

Dez Bryant – 299.7

Andre Johnson – 295.8

Demaryius Thomas – 292.2

Wes Welker – 289.4

Eric Decker – 269.4

Roddy White – 269.1

Reggie Wayne – 269

Julio Jones – 261.8

Vincent Jackson – 260.4

Victor Cruz – 255.2

Marques Colston – 254.4

Michael Crabtree – 250.5

Randall Cobb – 240.6

James Jones – 226.4

Mike Williams – 217.7

Stevie Johnson – 217.6

Steve Smith – 215.1

Lance Moore – 205.1

Brandon Lloyd – 195.1

Jeremy Maclin – 194.7

Mike Wallace – 194.5

As you can see with WR’s it is more of a gradual decline after Brandon Marshall. You could have Victor Cruz and Steve Smith and do quite well with 2 top RB’s. I do not advocate a WR before round 3 unless you can get Calvin or Brandon who both are madly in brotherly love with their QB’s. The difference between the Calvin (WR1) and Vincent (WR12) was 82 points, which is less than the difference between QB1 and QB12 and RB2 and RB12. The difference between Calvin (WR1) and Wallace (WR24) was 147.9 points. While the difference is more than QB1 to QB12, it is less than RB1 to RB24. This isn’t accounting for those oddball leagues that start 3 WR’s at minimum… I am looking at you Yahoo!

Since TE isn’t a position being over drafted this year (I have no idea why people thought it was good to overdraft in 2012), I have no real reason to say anything about them besides just showing you the stats. Since 2TE leagues are rare these were the top 12.

(1 pt ppr, 1 pt per 10 yards, 6 pt TD)

Jimmy Graham – 237.2

Tony Gonzalez – 234

Jason Witten – 231.9

Heath Miller – 202.6

Rob Gronkowski – 198

Brandon Myers – 183.6

Greg Olsen – 183.3

Dennis Pitta – 169.9

Owen Daniels – 169.6

Jermaine Gresham – 165.7

Kyle Rudolph – 158.3

Martellus Bennett – 147.6

The difference between Graham (TE1) and Bennett (TE12) was 89.6 points. This seems legit until you realize all the TE’s were very close together until the Witten to Miller drop and the Olsen to Pitta drop. Mind you that Miller, Myers, Pitta, Rudolph, and Bennett were not even being drafted last year. Most were waiver wire pickups.

I will not bother with defenses and kickers. If you need info on why they are a shot in the dark and are not worth drafting any earlier than the final rounds then here is a link that explains it all. http://tinyurl.com/kl9n56k

In redraft leagues, I agree. In Dynasty leagues it is best to have the “QB question” resolved, once and for all. In a 12 team league you’ll get stuck with Rivers, Flynn, and Ponder (if you are lucky enough to get three) if you wait on QBs, and then you’ll have to pay a King’s ransom to upgrade or hope you score in future drafts at QB, while others are taking the all important rookiee RBs #1 through #6.

sixshooter

Wesley is not saying to wait until the 10th round to take a QB but rather not to take one in the first two or even three rounds because you can still end up with a guy like Russell Wilson (as used in the example) who is much younger than a Drew Brees (also used in example) and was close enough in total pts last year to justify waiting for and taking a running back instead which I completely agree.
I just had this debate with my fellow fantasy football mates at work this week and I don’t believe they understand the whole VBD theory and I am not about to educate them. But then again……they were likely just sending smoke screens about their draft strategy!
I am not as sold on going RB RB in the first two rounds unless it’s Calvin or Marshall because……call me crazy but I am seriously considering taking Dez Bryant at #10 in a 16 team re-draft league unless a running back that I cannot pass up falls to me.

Wes

I am saying there is value later on. Why take Rodgers early when Luck is going in rounds 6 and later?

Robert Peterson

What if you wanted to handcuff rogers with cobb

Robert Peterson

Im trying a new system in a redraft league thats a practice league im using the qbs like most ppl use defenses i took palmer in the last rnd abd im just going to do the match ups so basically itll be a qb carousel for me week to week i must mention tho i had the first pick and took Peterson this allowed me to grab Peterson cobb bryant and grahm i also took the ravens but since dropped en for k.c. The league format is qb rb rb wr wr te flex def k its a ppr the only other diffrence from standard scoring is a rec td is worth the same as rush td im 2-1 in after week 3 something to think about