Energy Market Analysis - 01-03-2016

Temperatures are expected to fall back below the seasonal average over the next few days which offered support to near-curve gas contracts yesterday. The change-over of the front month contract has also helped to lift prompt prices, as did a further decline in the Pound. Movement further along the curve was minimal as oil contracts stabilised during the session.

Numerous gains were observed on the power curve yesterday although an improved wind generation outlook for today helped to weigh on the prompt. A colder weather forecast for the first half of March was the main factor for Monday's upward movement, assisted by a stronger gas market.

Market Open

Market Open

Brent rallied higher overnight which offered support to contracts across the gas curve this morning, with further upward pressure coming from a stronger demand outlook for tomorrow. However, the gains were slightly restricted as demand levels are 20mcm lower than yesterday's levels which has resulted in a long gas system.

Power contracts have continued on an upward trend this morning due to the expectancy of cold weather next week which will lift consumption levels across Europe. Wind levels are also set to drop over the coming days, resulting in gains for the prompt which have filtered through the rest of the near-curve.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices have displayed a sizeable gain this morning on the back of the potential 'freeze deal' and reports showing a decline in US and OPEC oil output; Brent currently trades just below $37/b.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for commercial gas recorded a small loss, while commercial electricity displayed a gain - closing at 30.95ppt and £35.05/MWh, respectively.