Archive forJuly, 2016

As per the latest survey from GfK, consumer confidence in the UK slumped to -12.0 in July from -1.0 in June, the sharpest m-o-m drop since March 1990. The significant decline was primarily due to increasing concerns about the country’s economic outlook among households and manufacturers after Brexit.

UK’s GDP grew 0.6% q-o-q in Q2 2016, as per preliminary estimates from the Office for National Statistics. This was faster than 0.5% forecast by economists and 0.4% in Q1 2016. The growth is mainly led by the biggest upturn in industrial production since 1999, particularly in car factories and pharmaceutical firms. On y-o-y basis, GDP increased 2.2% in Q2 2016 versus expectation of 2.1%.

As per the British Bankers’ Association, the number of mortgage approvals in the UK dropped to 40,103 in June from 41,842 in May, the lowest since March 2015. The value of net mortgage lending fell to £1.399bn in June from £1.665bn in May.

According to the Confederation of British Industry, the UK’s order balance declined to -4% in July from -2% in June and export order book fell to -22% in July from -14% in June. The output balance for May–July 2016 stood at 16%, same as the level recorded two years ago. The decline in orders is primarily due to uncertainty over the industry after Brexit.

As per Markit, the UK’s private sector activity declined at the fastest pace since early 2009. The flash composite output index slumped to 47.7 in July from 52.4 in June, the lowest reading in 87 months. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 from 52.1 in June, the lowest in 41 months. In addition, the services PMI slipped to 47.4 in July from 52.3 in June, an 88-month low.

As per the Office for National Statistics, UK retail sales fell 0.9% m-o-m in June, marking the sharpest drop in six months, after recording a 0.9% increase in May. This is primarily ascribed to a contraction in clothing sales due to bad weather. On a y-o-y basis, retail sales expanded 3.9% in June following a 5.2% rise in May.

As per the British Retail Consortium, retail footfall in the UK fell 2.8% y-o-y in June after rising 0.3% in May, marking the sharpest decline since February 2014. The significant decline in footfall is largely due to political and economic uncertainty during the month. Moreover, heavy rains and extreme weather conditions throughout the month aided the decline.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut the global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2016 from 3.2%. The agency also revised the global growth forecast for 2017 to 3.4% from 3.5%. Furthermore, the IMF reduced the UK’s growth outlook to 1.7% from 1.9% for 2016 and to 1.3% from 2.2% for 2017. The agency cited the UK’s decision to leave the European Union as the main reason for the downgrade.

As per the British Retail Consortium, retail footfall in the UK fell 2.8% y-o-y in June after rising 0.3% in May, marking the sharpest decline since February 2014. The significant decline in footfall is largely due to political and economic uncertainty during the month. Moreover, heavy rains and extreme weather conditions throughout the month aided the decline.

As per property tracking website Rightmove, the average asking price for a house in the UK fell 0.9% m-o-m to £307,824 in July, after rising 0.8% in June. On y-o-y basis, prices increased 4.5% compared with a 5.5% rise in the previous month.

Beaufort stockbroker, Ron Faulkner was amongst a group of successful candidates presented with a Society of Technical Analysts (STA) Diploma at an award ceremony during the organisation’s Summer Party on 12th July 2016

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee retained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with 8-1 votes in favour of maintaining the rates. Moreover, the committee left the asset purchase programme unchanged at £375bn.

As per the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the house price balance in the UK dropped to 16% in June from 19% in May. The decrease in the house price balance was mainly due to the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

As per an economic forecast jointly published by the French statistical office Insee, Italy’s statistical agency Istat and the research institute Ifo, the Eurozone’s economy is expected to expand 1.6% in 2016, faster than the 1.4% growth projected in April. Inflation is estimated to increase marginally during the rest of the year, taking the annual growth to 0.3%.

As per the British Retail Consortium (BRC), like-for-like (LFL) sales in the UK declined 0.5% y-o-y in June after a 0.5% y-o-y increase in May. For Q2 2016, overall sales rose 0.5% q-o-q and 1.2% y-o-y.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone to 1.6% for 2016 and 1.4% for 2017 from 1.7% for both the years. The agency cited implications of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union as the reason for the reduction in growth forecast.

As per a survey conducted by GfK, the UK’s consumer confidence index dropped to -9 in July from -1 in June, marking the highest monthly decline since 1994. The sharp fall in the index was mainly due to the negative impact of Brexit on consumer sentiment.

As per data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the UK’s new car registrations rose 3.2% y-o-y in H1 2016 to 1,420,636 units, marking the best first-half performance. The surge in registrations was led by a 2.3% increase in diesel car registrations and a 3% jump in petrol car sales.

The pound has hit a new low in Asian trading as concerns about the UK’s vote to leave the European Union continue to weigh on investor confidence. It touched $1.2798 against the dollar on Wednesday, which is a 31-year low. US government bond yields also fell to record lows as investors rushed to put money in perceived safe havens.

According to Markit, the UK’s construction PMI fell to 46.0 in June from 51.2 in May, marking its lowest level since June 2009. This is the first time since April 2013 that the index fell below 50, which implies a decline in the construction sector. The sharp fall can be ascribed to uncertainty surrounding pre- and post-Brexit.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, set a goal of lowering the corporate tax rate to 15% in order to encourage businesses investing in the UK as the country prepares to leave the European Union. At present, UK has a 20% tax rate for business that’s scheduled to fall to 17% in 2020.

As per data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s GDP grew 0.4% q-o-q in Q1 2016, in line with the earlier estimate, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of positive growth. However, growth was slower than 0.7% witnessed in Q4 2015. On y-o-y basis, GDP grew 2.0%, in line with the previous estimate. ONS announced that the current account gap narrowed to £32.6bn in Q1 2016 from £34.0bn in Q4 2015.