Managing a team over the course of a fantasy football season is a bit like taking part in a poker tournament. At the beginning, you can afford to be conservative and take a wait-and-see attitude with your players, in the hopes that the underperformers will come around (just as it’s usually smart to play conservatively early on in a poker tourney, while you’ve still got the luxury of low blinds). As the season (or tournament) wears on, you have to adjust your style of play. If you’re at .500 or worse, you’re the equivalent of a low-stacked player at the final table – it’s high time to make some bold moves. Hesitate, and you’ll be doomed to watch your subpar squad slowly fade out of contention.

If you’re on the playoff bubble at this point in the season, you’ve got to field the best squad possible every week. It’s now time to give up on the “high-potential” players and handcuffs you’ve been hoarding on your bench, guys like Robert Meachem, Michael Bush, Felix Jones, Maurice Morris, Le’Ron McClain, Fred Jackson, and others of their ilk (obviously, if you’re in a keeper league, they might be worth holding on to). Drop them in favor of free agent/waiver acquisitions that you can start now, even if they’re only startable when the matchups are right. The only hard part, of course, is identifying which players to start, and when. Which brings us to this week’s desperation-start options at QB, RB and WR…

Note: “% owned” statistics are an average of that player’s ownership percentage in all Yahoo and ESPN leagues, rounded to the nearest percent.

Quarterbacks

Dan Orlovsky, DET (9% owned) – True, the Bears are likely getting their cornerbacks back, but with both Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman starting their first games after missing a few (it’s been since Sept. 28 for Vasher and Oct. 12 for Tillman), they’re not likely to be in top form. That means Orlovsky, with megatarget Calvin Johnson to throw the ball to, will be facing a pass defense that isn’t likely to look much more menacing than the 4th-from-the-bottom unit it’s been so far. (More …)

To all of our devoted readers (and those who just stopped by for their first time), Happy Halloween! Make sure to go out and get some good candy (not the crappy kind that you hated getting as a kid!) to pass out to the kids tonight…or risk having to clean up toilet paper and shaving cream up in the morning.

Anyways, last week something relatively new happened in the world of FFGeekBlog hits and misses, which was that for the first time of the season, my feature pick did not completely bomb…nor did he do extremely well. For week eight, I recommended that you start Jets running back Thomas Jones at all costs against a Swiss-cheese style Kansas City run defense. If you took my advice, you probably don’t completely hate me…but you’re most likely not making up nicknames for me that include the words “genius”, “psychic” or “super awesome.” Against the Chiefs, Thomas Jones managed a mere 54 yards on the ground and also scored a touchdown, so while his fantasy stats weren’t something to cry about, they also weren’t something to warrant cover space on the revered Hits and Misses column.

After the dust settled though, even with Thomas Jones earning a “push” rating for the week (and J.T. O’Sullivan playing so badly that he lost the starting gig!), I still finished with a solid 16-4-5 (hits-misses-pushes) record, riding upon the shoulders of huge games from Drew Brees, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, along with predictable stinkers from the Colts star receivers. This week I’ll try to continue my trend of solid picks, so here we go…

Hits

Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos: While Marshall’s numbers may have “dropped off” over the past few weeks (only 18 receptions for 200 yards in the last three games), it’s not because quarterback Jay Cutler was not looking his way. Brandon continues to get more looks than almost any other receiver in the league (possibly the most) and this week, following the bye, playing at home, against a fairly bad Dolphins secondary, I expect a huge performance from my doppelganger (in name only.) Cutler will have a big day, but I think it’s Marshall who reaps the most rewards as he hands out tricks to the Dolphins and treats to the fans. (More …)

If your team needs some help and you’re looking to make a trade to bolster a position, here’s a list of players to look for and work into those deals this week. Players listed under Sell High are overvalued – meaning that I think they’re performing at a level they won’t be able to maintain throughout the season, and thus are ripe to be traded away while their value is still high. Those listed under Buy Low are the ones to look for on other peoples’ teams – hopefully their owners are discouraged by their poor performance thus far, and will trade them away for a song.

Sell High

Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN – He’s had three straight games with 80+ yards and a score – against three of the worst teams in the league at stopping the pass (New Orleans allows the 6th-most passing yards per game, Detroit the 2nd-most, and Chicago the 4th-most). Frerotte-to-Berrian isn’t exactly an unstoppable force, and the minute opposing defenses decide to pay closer attention to Berrian (probably starting about now), this connection’s going to fizzle.

David Garrard, QB, JAC – Poor David Garrard. Just when he finally develops some chemistry with a receiver (Matt Jones), it looks like he’ll probably lose him to suspension fairly soon. While Jones is gone for three weeks (whether it starts this week or next), expect Garrard to revert to his early-season form, when he was averaging well under 200 yards and rarely threw for a score. (More …)

Here are our responses to the first couple of questions for the week. Remember, you can always ask us questions by clicking the Ask the Geeks logo on the left sidebar (or this link).

Scott asks: I have been offered Jay Cutler for Steve Smith. I am allowed to play 2 QB’s in my league. One of them can fill the open offensive position. My current WR’s are Smith, A. Johnson, Holt, A. Bryant, S. Holmes. My QB’s are Rivers and Russel. RB’s are L. White, Slaton, Fargas, J.Stewart. Right now I’ve been alternating between Stewart and Russel in the OP position. Do you think I should make this trade knowing that QB’s predominantly score more or am I losing too much of a stronghold on my WRs?

Brandon’s take: Scott, I was curious how many wide receivers you start in your league (not counting the OP position)? If you only start two, then I would definitely go for this trade. Jay Cutler is a HUGE improvement over JaMarcus Russel and he’s a guy you could leave in the OP position for the rest of the season. In that case, Andre Johnson and one of your other receivers should suffice to hold down the WR position. Even if you start three wide receivers, due to the fact that you get more points from quarterbacks than other positions, I’m still leaning towards you making the deal. Cutler should return from the bye week with his finger back in working condition and he should resume his regular destruction of opposing defenses. Steve Smith will continue to get tons of looks from Jake Delhomme, but in math terms:

(Jay Cutler – JaMarcus Russell)> (Steve Smith – Torry Holt)

Matt’s take: *shakes fist at Brandon for making him do math* I’d make the trade. I count no fewer than five weak secondaries on the Broncos’ upcoming schedule, which means the fearsome Cutler-to-Marshall machine will have lots of opportunities to do some serious damage. Especially in a two-QB league, a guy like Cutler is a game-changer who can singlehandedly win your matchup for you any given week. Can you say the same thing about Steve Smith?(More …)

From the most recent news on Cutler it appears that his finger is fine and while there seems to be a lot of hype around Ryan Torain, I can’t see a late round rookie running back completely changing the game plan…not to mention their defense is bad, so they’ll have to keep throwing the ball. From my experience in a league with two quarterbacks, having two of the best can make your team nearly unstoppable, especially if the scoring system is weighted towards quarterbacks.

Considering what Broncos coach Mike Shanahan said about Torain, I wouldn’t call it “hype”. He was compared to Terrell Davis (2 time SuperBowl champ) and Shanahan doesn’t just dish out compliments like that. Look at how Eddie Royal has turned out, he’s a beast. Besides Steve Smith is proven and Cutler still has a ways to go to be “proven.”

I’d agree with the Advisor in a 1-QB league, but, like Brandon, I’ve seen what happens when you have two top-notch QBs in a 2-QB league – you win. A lot. Considering that his current #2 QB is JaMarcus Russell, that’s a major hole that needs to be filled.

That said, it’s still close. Smith is a great WR1. But I think the team he’ll start on a weekly basis will be stronger if he makes the trade than if he doesn’t.

Final thought: We don’t know anything about his scoring system, and I’m a little confused about the roster positions (what’s this “open offensive position” stuff?). The most important things we’d need to know to make a real call here would be points per passing yard, points per receiving yard, yardage bonuses (if any), and whether QB TDs are worth 4 points or 6.

Now that we’re halfway through the season, I’m curious as to what websites our readers are using to manage their fantasy football leagues. We generally offer player ownership statistics for Yahoo and ESPN leagues (as in, “Pierre Thomas is available in 72% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues”), but that’s not too helpful if the majority of our visitors are hosting their leagues elsewhere.

Only one way to find out! This is one of the few polls around that doesn’t have anything to do with the election that will mercifully be over with in one week. If you answer “other,” we’d appreciate it if you enlightened us as to what system you do use – the comment section is below.

I use Yahoo! the most but also play in one league hosted by ESPN. I’m not a fan of the NFL.com league setup as it appears like it has been created more our of desperation. Yahoo! is very nice although I would love to see a live chat window that managers could use when watching games in real time. Additionally I think it would be cool to draft an O-line and get stats for rushing yards, sacks, etc. Maybe even have the ability to draft a head coach and get points based on wins/losses. I think there is a lot of room for creativity. I’ll have to check out some of the other sites mentioned here. Thanks for the bog, it’s great!

Used Yahoo for about 5 years for main league, got talked into using ESPN this year, due to free live scoring. Other than the cost for Live Scoring Yahoo is much better, in terms of comparing Players, looking into the future, etc.