Nelson's Lead Slides Among Independents

TALLAHASSEE -- Democrat Bill Nelson continues to hold a solid lead over Republican Bill McCollum in their U.S. Senate battle, but Nelson's margin has slipped slightly among Florida's key independent vote, an Orlando Sentinel poll shows.

Nelson, the state insurance commissioner, is ahead of McCollum by 7 percent, leading 44 percent to 37 percent, in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Connie Mack, a two-term Republican.

But among independents, Nelson's edge has been cut nearly in half, down to 7 points, from 39 percent to 32 percent. A month ago, a similar survey showed Nelson with a 12-point lead among independents, who represent 15 percent of registered voters in Florida.

"McCollum seems to have momentum on his side," said Shannon Gravitte, a McCollum spokeswoman. "We always knew this race was going to tighten."

Nelson's overall lead is down 1 point from last month's survey, but he continues to do well among women and voters in populous Southeast Florida. He also leads among voters across all age groups.

But his support is flattening among independents, a key swing vote in a state where neither major party constitutes a majority of voters.

Also significant are the 14 percent of respondents who are still undecided.

The telephone poll of 807 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the November election was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research from Oct. 5 through Oct. 7. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

In another plus for McCollum, a 20-year congressman from Longwood, Nelson's 2 percent lead among men has disappeared. The survey shows McCollum is now the favorite of men by a 4 percent margin, 43 percent to 39 percent.