Toronto Blue Jays first base prospect Rowdy Tellez, the 2013 June Amateur Draft 895th overall pick, had a successful season in the minor leagues in 2016. Here is my analysis of Mr. Tellez that looks closely at his 2016 performance. I will finish with a look towards the future. Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

Traditional 5 x 5 Roto Stats:

In AA ball Mr. Tellez had 514 plate appearances. He hit for a .297 average with 23 home runs, 71 runs and 81 RBI’s. He had 4 steals in 7 attempts.

Power Sabermetric Stats:

2016 saw an AA ball isolated power (ISO) of .233. Anyone between .200 and .299 I consider a solid power hitter. ISO tends to stabilize at about 160 at-bats. So, if a player is hitting for power through his first 160 at-bats then he has a good chance of maintaining his high ISO going forward. We do need to keep in mind with prospects that as they age they will in general grow into more power. Some will grow into a lot more power, and some just a little more. There’s a lot to like with the power potential that has now showed up in-game action that is inside his bat.

I like using wOBA instead of batting average in my player analysis because wOBA gives home runs the most value followed by triples, doubles, singles and finishing with walks getting the least value. Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes they are, wOBA gives weight to the better hits.

He only had a .405 wOBA in AA ball in 2016. That was written with a very sarcastic tone because that is an excellent wOBA.

wRC+ is similar to the more mainstream OPS+ statistic. 100 is league average. Anything above that is above league average and below that is, naturally, below league average. This sabermetric statistic basically shows what hitters are better at producing runs and it is adjusted for park and league effects.

Given Mr. Tellez’s wOBA it should not be a surprise to find out that he was 52% better than league average (152 wRC+) in AA ball.

I think it is helpful to take a quick look at these plate discipline sabermetric statistics. When looking at these two statistics some star players will grade out as below average or worse in these areas. Many power hitters will have this issue. Be careful to realize the type of player we are talking about and factor that in when reading.

Mr. Tellez had a K% of 17.9% at AA ball in 2016. This receives a grade of average from me. When you factor in the 12.3% BB% (above average) you have a power bat that has great plate discipline for a guy with a power bat.

What This All Means For 2017:

This will be a big season for Mr. Tellez, although, in reality they all are big seasons for minor league players trying to establish themselves or keeping their prospect stock as high as possible. He will be tested once again in the minor leagues. He just needs to keep on doing what he did in AA ball in 2016. I am not in the business of predicting runs and RBI’s for hitters as they vary based upon where the manager chooses to hit them in the batting order and other various factors make them a bit unpredictable. Assuming Mr. Tellez has a full healthy 2017 I would project 23 home runs to go along with a .289 batting average with 2 stolen bases when you combine his stats from all levels of baseball.

If you enjoyed this article and are looking for a fresh perspective please CLICK HERE and get The Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit (sold during the off-season) or order a DFS baseball lineup! The Fantasy Baseball Addict 2017 Top 100 MLB Prospects are just one click away as well! Check out the list and as the 2016-17 off-season moves along every player on this list will have an analysis article done on him. So, be sure to bookmark that page as over time it will be a reference complete with links to easily get to these player specific analysis articles!

Domingo Leyba 2016-17 Off-Season Analysis

Arizona Diamondbacks second base prospect Domingo Leyba had a successful season in the minor leagues in 2016. Here is my analysis of Mr. Leyba that looks closely at his 2016 performance. I will finish with a look towards the future. Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

Traditional 5 x 5 Roto Stats:

In A+ ball Mr. Leyba had 374 plate appearances. He hit for a .294 average with 6 home runs, 48 runs and 40 RBI’s. He had 5 steals in 6 attempts. In AA ball Mr. Leyba had 174 plate appearances. He hit for a .301 average with 4 home runs, 21 runs and 20 RBI’s. He had 4 steals in 6 attempts

Power Sabermetric Stats:

2016 saw an A+ ball isolated power (ISO) of .132 and in AA ball it was .135. Anyone at or under .200 I consider a majority singles hitter. ISO tends to stabilize at about 160 at-bats. So, if a player is hitting for power through his first 160 at-bats then he has a good chance of maintaining his high ISO going forward. We do need to keep in mind with prospects that as they age they will in general grow into more power. Some will grow into a lot more power, and some just a little more. He doesn’t have a lot of pop in his bat.

I like using wOBA instead of batting average in my player analysis because wOBA gives home runs the most value followed by triples, doubles, singles and finishing with walks getting the least value. Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes they are, wOBA gives weight to the better hits.

The .345 wOBA in A+ ball was average and the .374 wOBA in AA ball I consider above average.

wRC+ is similar to the more mainstream OPS+ statistic. 100 is league average. Anything above that is above league average and below that is, naturally, below league average. This sabermetric statistic basically shows what hitters are better at producing runs and it is adjusted for park and league effects.

Given Mr. Leyba’s wOBA’s it should not be a surprise to find out that he was 8% better than league average (108 wRC+) in A+ ball and 37% better (137 wRC+) in AA ball.

I think it is helpful to take a quick look at these plate discipline sabermetric statistics. When looking at these two statistics some star players will grade out as below average or worse in these areas. Many power hitters will have this issue. Be careful to realize the type of player we are talking about and factor that in when reading.

Mr. Leyba had a K% of 16.6% at A+ ball in 2016. This receives a grade of average from me. He improved upon this in AA ball with at 12.6% K% (above average). He has shown good plate discipline as he also has had a 7.8% BB% in 2016 A+ ball (below average) and 9.8% in AA ball (average).

What This All Means For 2017:

This will be a big season for Mr. Leyba, although, in reality they all are big seasons for minor league players trying to establish themselves or keeping their prospect stock as high as possible. He will be tested once again in the minor leagues. He will need to build upon what he did last season to remain a top-100 prospect. I am not in the business of predicting runs and RBI’s for hitters as they vary based upon where the manager chooses to hit them in the batting order and other various factors make them a bit unpredictable. Assuming Mr. Leyba has a full healthy 2017 I would project 8 home runs to go along with a .285 batting average with 9 stolen bases when you combine his stats from all levels of baseball.

If you enjoyed this article and are looking for a fresh perspective please CLICK HERE and get The Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit (sold during the off-season) or order a DFS baseball lineup! The Fantasy Baseball Addict 2017 Top 100 MLB Prospects are just one click away as well! Check out the list and as the 2016-17 off-season moves along every player on this list will have an analysis article done on him. So, be sure to bookmark that page as over time it will be a reference complete with links to easily get to these player specific analysis articles!

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About Daniel Hilsgen

I'm a fantasy baseball addict and a paid writer at dynastysportsempire.com. I have a BS in Print Journalism from the University Of Wisconsin - River Falls. While in college I wrote briefly for the Associated Press. I have a deep love for sports, writing, baseball and fantasy baseball. You will find that I also love advanced statistics. I use these statistics and other information to form educated projections on baseball players future performance levels. Follow me on Twitter @FanBallAddict for easy access to my articles. In the off-season I have a fantasy baseball cheat sheet available for purchase. To purchase the fantasy baseball cheat sheet product or simply get on the contact list for it please email me at daniel.hilsgen@outlook.com

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