Everything Round 1: Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks

Wed Apr 12th, 2017, 10:46 AM

It's that time of year again! Fresh off an Eastern Conference Finals appearance, the Toronto Raptors have their sights on the Larry O'Brien trophy this year. The first hurdle is the young bucks from Milwaukee. What are y'all thoughts, concerns, and aspirations with this match-up?

My prediction is a 5-Game Series. Milwaukee is a talented and freakishly athletic group, but inexperience will be trumped by our guys. I do not think they know what they are in for when they'll arrive at arguably the best playoff atmosphere, at the ACC.

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Finally time to go up 2-0 with the home start. Lose game 3 in Milwaukee. Put them away in games 4 and 5.

Just win game one at home please! Don't let Bucks believe they can beat us. A 2-0 lead would be ideal. If we lose game 1 again series likely to be 6-7 game series and even if we do win we all know what's next. In order to have a realistic chance against CAVS we need to be prepared and rested.

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The Bucks have not been playing great lately. They've been winning, but not playing great. They are 17-9 since the break, compared to the Raptors' 17-7, both very impressive. But the Bucks have had only a +0.5 net rating (14th) in that time, to TOR's +4.5 (5th). They are playing with the point differential of a .500 team, and finding ways to win.

More recently (past 5 games), the picture is even more drastic. The Bucks have gone 2-3, and post an abysmal -7 net rating in that time (powered by a 96 ORTG). The Raptors have struggled a bit too as they reintroduce Lowry, but still went 4-1 with a positive point differential.

The Raptors might need to learn from last game against the Bucks. In the 1st Q, the Raptors refused to match up for size, with JV guarded by Thon, and got the ball inside. JV had 9 points on 4/4 shooting, 5 rebounds and an assist on route to being +10 in the Q in 10 minutes. The Raptors ignored him for the rest of the game, as he managed only 10 more minutes played, and only one more FGA. They would ultimately lose the game by 7, playing lineups with Ibaka or even Patterson at C to match the Bucks.

They were without Lowry in that one, but in the previous three matches, JV still averaged 10 FGA's (in 26 MPG) and was +24 in the three wins. Go big against this Bucks team, don't match up unless you are absolutely getting killed defensively (JV had a 99 DRTG in 4 games against the Bucks this year, so there's no reason to suspect they can take advantage of him on that end).

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The Bucks have not been playing great lately. They've been winning, but not playing great. They are 17-9 since the break, compared to the Raptors' 17-7, both very impressive. But the Bucks have had only a +0.5 net rating (14th) in that time, to TOR's +4.5 (5th). They are playing with the point differential of a .500 team, and finding ways to win.

More recently (past 5 games), the picture is even more drastic. The Bucks have gone 2-3, and post an abysmal -7 net rating in that time (powered by a 96 ORTG). The Raptors have struggled a bit too as they reintroduce Lowry, but still went 4-1 with a positive point differential.

The Raptors might need to learn from last game against the Bucks. In the 1st Q, the Raptors refused to match up for size, with JV guarded by Thon, and got the ball inside. JV had 9 points on 4/4 shooting, 5 rebounds and an assist on route to being +10 in the Q in 10 minutes. The Raptors ignored him for the rest of the game, as he managed only 10 more minutes played, and only one more FGA. They would ultimately lose the game by 7, playing lineups with Ibaka or even Patterson at C to match the Bucks.

They were without Lowry in that one, but in the previous three matches, JV still averaged 10 FGA's (in 26 MPG) and was +24 in the three wins. Go big against this Bucks team, don't match up unless you are absolutely getting killed defensively (JV had a 99 DRTG in 4 games against the Bucks this year, so there's no reason to suspect they can take advantage of him on that end).

Totally agree here, Maker and Monroe just don't have the defensive abilities to stop him; This series has JV written all over it. I'm not as concerned that he won't get the ball, after the OKC debacle Derozan gave the ball to JV a lot more when the match-ups presented themselves.

The absolute key here is Casey managing this series correctly, we have to make Milwaukee adjust to us not the other way around.

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The Bucks have not been playing great lately. They've been winning, but not playing great. They are 17-9 since the break, compared to the Raptors' 17-7, both very impressive. But the Bucks have had only a +0.5 net rating (14th) in that time, to TOR's +4.5 (5th). They are playing with the point differential of a .500 team, and finding ways to win.

More recently (past 5 games), the picture is even more drastic. The Bucks have gone 2-3, and post an abysmal -7 net rating in that time (powered by a 96 ORTG). The Raptors have struggled a bit too as they reintroduce Lowry, but still went 4-1 with a positive point differential.

The Raptors might need to learn from last game against the Bucks. In the 1st Q, the Raptors refused to match up for size, with JV guarded by Thon, and got the ball inside. JV had 9 points on 4/4 shooting, 5 rebounds and an assist on route to being +10 in the Q in 10 minutes. The Raptors ignored him for the rest of the game, as he managed only 10 more minutes played, and only one more FGA. They would ultimately lose the game by 7, playing lineups with Ibaka or even Patterson at C to match the Bucks.

They were without Lowry in that one, but in the previous three matches, JV still averaged 10 FGA's (in 26 MPG) and was +24 in the three wins. Go big against this Bucks team, don't match up unless you are absolutely getting killed defensively (JV had a 99 DRTG in 4 games against the Bucks this year, so there's no reason to suspect they can take advantage of him on that end).

My one fear is Casey going small too much to match up, but like you said he has for the most part used JV fairly typically at 26 mpg so that's encouraging. Hopefully he sticks to the inside size advantage.

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Toronto has advantages aplenty against the Bucks. On the season, the Raptors are a top 10 offensive rebounding team (again, play big, keep that advantage). The Bucks are a horrendous defensive rebounding squad, 27th in the league. JV, Tucker and Lowry should feast, and this should help offset any problems their lengthy defenders give our primary scorers.

Milwaukee survives on fast break points (they are a top 10 team in FBP's per 100 possessions, 5th in points off turnovers) and paint points (1st in the league with 50 PITP/100 possessions). Bad news for Bucks fans - the Raptors have the 5th lowest turnover rate in the league at 13.1% (the Bucks' typical opponent turns it over 15.2% of the time), and only saw that rise to 13.9% against the Bucks this year, and are ranked 6th and 7th in preventing opponent fast break points and points off turnovers respectively.

Meanwhile, the Raptors are also a borderline top 10 team defensively in the paint (11th, 43 PITP allowed per 100 possessions), while posting a top 10 DFG% at the rim and a top 8 block rate.