Aids Dormancy Debated

DIGEST

March 26, 1987

NEW YORK -- The AIDS virus may lie dormant for an average of 15 years before the disease appears, suggesting that millions of cases may yet appear in people already infected, according to a study in the British journal Nature.

The study estimates that around the end of 1984, 2.5 million Americans had been infected and would develop AIDS over the next 30 years or so, barring medical advances, researcher Malcolm Rees said.

The calculations also suggest that two-thirds of AIDS cases will arise 10 to 20 years after infection, but Rees stressed the numbers are not firm projections. Other projections have been shorter-term, and dispute Rees` findings.