Raptors' Draft Lottery Odds

With the way the Raptors have been playing as of late it is highly unlikely that they will gain ground on any of the four worse teams in the league to increase their lottery odds of winning the top pick. At the same time the Nets are playing better than the Raptors right now, the Pistons are playing on par with them and the Clippers and Bucks don't have enough games left to fail at the magnitude required to steal the fifth worst spot. The chances seem high that the Raptors will enter the lottery with the fifth most lottery balls. What does that mean? Well let me break it down for you by showing you the Raptors odds of winning a top three picks and beyond if the season ended today:

the worst team would draft 4th;
the second worst team would draft 1st;
the 3rd worst would draft 2nd;
the 4th worst would draft 5th;the 5th worst would draft 3rd;
the 6th worst would draft 6th;
the 7th worst would draft 7th;
And so on down the rest of the list according to their position.

So, according to the odds, the Raps, who are likely to finish with the 5th worst record, should end up with the 3rd pick in the draft.

Even better: currently it is Minnesota who drafts (according to the above odds) at #1. Would Minnesota dare to draft another point guard? I think it is unlikely, but of course possible. I think it's more likely though they go with someone like Sullinger, who would pair great with Cousins.

Sacramento and Washington are tied for the 3rd worst record. If Washington in the end finishes with the 3rd worst record (50/50 at this point), they will then be most likely to draft at the 2 spot. Given that they have John Wall, they too are also unlikely to draft a point guard. Which leaves the Raps, yes, the Raps, with the 3rd draft spot with Kyrie Irving still on the board.

Ergo, it is entirely possible, and indeed, entirely likely, that, at least according to the odds, the Raptors will be drafting Kyrie Irving.

And just to clear up any confusion: the above is so because, while it is true that the best odds indicate the 5th spot drafts at 6 (36%), the odds are actually better that the 6th spot drafts at 6 (43.9%). After 6 is ruled out, as is the 5th spot because that is where the odds are better that the 4th worst team will be most likely to draft (35.1% vs 26.1%), the next most likely spot is at number 3, which hasn't yet been claimed.

I don't think that's the correct way to look at probabilities. What could happen to other teams can't be factored in twice. The odds are what they are. The Raptors winning a top 3 spot is, at best, the third most likely scenario.

And just to clear up any confusion: the above is so because, while it is true that the best odds indicate the 5th spot drafts at 6 (36%), the odds are actually better that the 6th spot drafts at 6 (43.9%). After 6 is ruled out, as is the 5th spot because that is where the odds are better that the 4th worst team will be most likely to draft (35.1% vs 26.1%), the next most likely spot is at number 3, which hasn't yet been claimed.

That's a neat way to look at it. Fingers crossed it works out!

"When Life gives you lemons, you clone those Lemons to make super lemons!"
-Scudworth

In my opinion, the best way to look at probabilities is to look at the greatest percentages across the chart and weigh the odds accordingly.

Why is it more likely that the Raptors - who sit at the 5th position - will draft at the 6th spot, when there is a much greater chance that the 6th worst team will draft there? It doesn't make sense to claim that it's most likely that both the 5th and the 6th worst teams are likely to draft at the 6th position.

That being said, I'm not really interested in a long protracted argument here. My post was just a thought experiment, and an awesome one at that, if I do say so.

(Edit: I just ran the ESPN mock draft + lottery machine. I ran it once. Minnesota ended up with the 1st pick. Toronto drafted at #3. (Utah at 2). Cleveland ended up at #4. Washington/Sacramento ended up 5/6. I believe my argument has just been proven by the internet.)

I see how you're thinking this through but I don't agree with it. The team most likely to win the 6th seed is still more likely not to win the 6th seed. If my life is on the line and I need to guess where the Raptors land in the lotto I'm all in on 6th or 5th with those odds.

If my life is on the line and I need to guess where the Raptors land in the lotto, I'm all in on asking the person who is about to murder me if they aren't in some form or another addicted to gambling.

Man I was thrilled to see them beat a team as great as the thunder, I cursed when I saw the nets lost. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of taking. That said, I really hope we don't win many games the rest of the way.

With the way the Raptors have been playing as of late it is highly unlikely that they will gain ground on any of the four worse teams in the league to increase their lottery odds of winning the top pick. At the same time the Nets are playing better than the Raptors right now, the Pistons are playing on par with them and the Clippers and Bucks don't have enough games left to fail at the magnitude required to steal the fifth worst spot. The chances seem high that the Raptors will enter the lottery with the fifth most lottery balls. What does that mean? Well let me break it down for you by showing you the Raptors odds of winning a top three picks and beyond if the season ended today:

I dunno about the Nets being better. They just signed Gaines for the rest of the season because the team is thinking of shutting down Deron. I don't mind if the Raps finish strong and lose a few ping-pong balls. As a teacher, it's important for students to see progress of their hard work. To see them falter in the end for balls might actually be more detrimental. Besides, regardless of our position, the Raps' pick still hinges on luck and chance. Too bad that Kleiza is injured. I would've loved to see this team play with all cylinders firing.

“The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

I dunno about the Nets being better. They just signed Gaines for the rest of the season because the team is thinking of shutting down Deron. I don't mind if the Raps finish strong and lose a few ping-pong balls. As a teacher, it's important for students to see progress of their hard work. To see them falter in the end for balls might actually be more detrimental. Besides, regardless of our position, the Raps' pick still hinges on luck and chance. Too bad that Kleiza is injured. I would've loved to see this team play with all cylinders firing.

The Raptors need to win four more games than the Nets down the stretch to give up the fifth worst spot. I just don't see that happening over the 13-14 games each team has left.

Since 1990 when the current format was put into place for the draft lottery, the team with the 5th worst record has won the top pick the MOST times, followed by the 2nd and 3rd worst teams. I don't know how to link a previous post so pasting here:

Interesting, I agree with the original post, I think it seems very likely that w'ere gonna end up with a top 3 pick. And let there be no question about it, first and foremost, we need a point guard. Hopefully, the scenario plays out so that we do get Irving.

Interesting, I agree with the original post, I think it seems very likely that w'ere gonna end up with a top 3 pick. And let there be no question about it, first and foremost, we need a point guard. Hopefully, the scenario plays out so that we do get Irving.

You know what, even if we don't, there's Brandon Knight (which I find equally intriguing). I'm not sold on this Irving or bust mindset, especially when a lot of other things can affect the draft such as:

“The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King