Monday, June 8, 2015

May 2015 federal polling averages

A total of nine polls interviewed over 16,000 Canadians throughout the month of May, recording one of the most dramatic swings in voting intentions in years.

The Conservatives led in polls conducted in May, averaging 30.2% support. That was a drop of 2.2 points from April, however, and marked the third consecutive month of decrease for the Tories from 33%. It was their worst score since October 2014, and a significant departure from the 32% to 33% the Conservatives had managed over the previous six months.

The big shift boosted the New Democrats into second place, the first time they've polled this high in over two years, the last time being January 2013. The NDP was up 5.5 points to 28.5%, marking their third consecutive month of increase from 20% support three months ago. There have only been two cases of a jump this large in voting intentions since the end of 2008: when the Liberals jumped six points between June and July 2014, and when the NDP surged in the 2011 election campaign.

The Liberals were down 2.1 points to 28.4%. They have dropped or have been stagnant for 10 consecutive months now, having polled at 39% at their peak. May's score was their worst since March 2013, or the month before Justin Trudeau became party leader.

The Greens were down 0.9 points to 6.5%, while the Bloc Québécois was down 0.1 point to 4.2%. An average of 2.3% of Canadians said they would vote for another party or independent candidate.

Undecideds, when reported, averaged 16.6%.

There was a clear and dramatic shift last month. The Conservatives ranged between 29% and 36% in polls conducted in April, but ranged only between 28% and 33% in May. The Liberal range decreased from between 28% and 35% to 26% and 31%. The NDP ranged between 21% and 25% in April. In May, polls put them between 24% and 30%.

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There were big changes in the NDP's voting intentions everywhere, but one of the biggest was in British Columbia. The NDP jumped 7.2 points to 31.9%, their best since March 2013 and their first lead since last fall. The Conservatives were down 2.9 points to 27.9%, their worst since July 2014, while the Liberals were down 1.9 points to 26.6%. They haven't been that low since January 2014. The Greens were also down, slipping two points to 11.6%.

The only good news for the Conservatives was in Alberta, where the stink of the provincial campaign seems to be drifting away. The Tories were up 3.6 points to 47.2%, halting a three-month decline. The New Democrats were up 3.5 points to 27%, their best on record. Their previous best before the recent surge was 21% in early 2012. The Liberals were down big, plummeting 6.1 points to 16.8%, their worst since January 2013. The Greens were down 0.9 points to 5%.

The Conservatives continue to hold steady in the Prairies, where they have averaged 39% to 43% for the past nine months. In May, they were down 1.8 points from April to 40% support. The Liberals were down 2.8 points to 27.3%, their worst since January 2013, while the NDP was up 4.3 points to 24.6%. The Greens were down 0.5 points to 5.6%.

Despite dropping 2.2 points, the Conservatives still led in Ontario with 34.5%. The Liberals, down over the last eight months from 43%, slipped 1.2 points in May to 32.3%. The NDP, which was at 17% just three months ago, was up 4.7 points to 24.9%, their best since March 2014. The Greens were down 0.6 points to 6.4%.

In Quebec, the New Democrats surged 7.2 points to 35.6%, their best since August 2012, when Thomas Mulcair was at the tail-end of his leadership honeymoon. The Liberals, who were at 37% eight months ago, continued their slide by 1.3 points to hit 24.9%, their worst since March 2013. Mario Beaulieu's Bloc Québécois was down 1.3 points to 16.5%, while the Conservatives fell 4.7 points to just 16.4%. That is their worst score since December, when the party started to see improvement in the polls. The Greens were down 0.2 points to 4.7%.

The Liberals only led in Atlantic Canada, where they were down 1.6 points to 43.6%. That's their lowest since July 2013 (they were at 51% three months ago). The NDP was up 3.6 points and moved into second with 24.3%, their best since July 2014, while the Conservatives were down 1.6 points to 22.8%. The Greens were also down, falling one point to 7%. Note that this is Elizabeth May's best result in any region after B.C.

With these levels of support, the Conservatives would likely win a plurality of seats with 128, followed by the New Democrats at 109, the Liberals at 99, and the Greens with two. The Bloc would be shutout.

Compared to April, this is a 15-seat drop for the Conservatives, a 14-seat decrease for the Liberals, and a 30-seat increase for the NDP. The Bloc had been projected to win one seat with the April averages.

The seat changes demonstrate the shift that took place in May, and the real world consequences of them. The NDP picked up seven seats in British Columbia, three in the Prairies, seven in Ontario, 11 in Quebec, and two in Atlantic Canada. It retained its projected wins in Alberta and the North.

The Conservatives dropped six seats in B.C., two in the Prairies, two in Ontario, and six in Quebec. They gained one in Alberta. These changes do show how, regionally, different parties are affected by the NDP gain. The Conservatives lost more support than the Liberals in B.C., Ontario, and Quebec.

The Liberals fell one seat in British Columbia, one in Alberta, one in the Prairies, five in Ontario, four in Quebec, and two in Atlantic Canada.

Early June polls suggest that the three-way race is not going anywhere, though so far there has been some disagreement as to whether it is the Liberals or the NDP that is seeing its momentum shift (if at all). The split to the left of the Conservatives certainly helps the Tories, but the party is still in a very dangerous position. Compared to 2011 (and the 308-seat House), the NDP is up six seats and the Liberals are up 65. The Conservatives are down by almost 40 seats.

In 2008, Stephen Harper successfully (and somewhat aptly) portrayed the coalition attempt as a coalition of losers. The Liberals had dropped, the NDP had made only modest gains, and the two parties needed the Bloc to survive in power. But if these numbers are repeated on election day, it would be hard to portray the Liberals and NDP in that light again.

77 comments:

You made a little mistake on the regional support image on the top. You put the Bloc at 2%.

Very impressed by the drastic shifts. Seeing how big the shift was across the country in the monthly rankings really puts it in context. Even the new forum numbers show close to the same (other than in Quebec.)

I can't figure out the big discrepancy between former NDP and Liberal voters. Either they oversampled former Liberal and undersampled former NDP voters, or people's memories are faulty in a biased way.

The last Abacus poll also has the breakdown of how people surveyed voted in 2011 and there isn't the same discrepancy. The raw and weighted numbers are within +/- 2% of the actual 2011 data.

Is this just a problem with Forums polling strategy? In their previous 5 polls, the sample of 2011 Liberal and NDP voters was about equal, which still isn't right. Now there are 25% more former Liberals than New Democrats.

Forum has a good track record, I don't doubt their numbers. I just find the discrepancy odd.

Compared to April, the CPC is down 13, the LPC 11, the BQ 2 and the GPC 1, while the NDP is up by 27. In the Atlantic, the LPC lost 2 seats to the NDP. In Québec, the LPC is down 6, the CPC 8 and the BQ 2, all 16 of them going to the NDP. In Ontario, the LPC is down 3 seats and the CPC 1, and the NDP gained 4. In the Prairies, the CPC lost 1 seat to the NDP. In British Columbia, the CPC is down 3 seats and the GPC 1, with the NDP gaining the 4 of them. There were no changes in Alberta and in the Territories.

"The Conservatives led in polls conducted in May, averaging 30.2% support. That was a drop of 2.2 points from April, however, and marked the third consecutive month of decrease for the Tories from 33%. It was their worst score since October 2014, and a significant departure from the 32% to 33% the Conservatives had managed over the previous six months."

But really there has been a decline in the Conservative numbers the question is are those voters going to the Grits or the Dippers.

Is it a situation where the Liberals gained the 2.2% from the Tories and lost over 5% to the NDP or did the New Democrats gain the losses of both the CPC and LPC? Both scenarios paint a fascinating but very different picture.

Well numbers wise no I guess not, but from a socio-political view I think it does matter.

Most of us here and on other sites are partisan of one stripe or another, so our view of polls can be skewed by our support and thus our view of the electorate can likewise be skewed.

Just look at what pundits and many partisans have been saying about conservative support. 'the Tories have a rock solid base of 30% support' or 'Alberta is the center of conservatism in Canada'. Those are just more complicated ways of saying this segment of the population is ideological to one side. However is this true? are we as a nation really split political between right, left and undecided? or is it more complicated then what the polls would have us believe?

I think it's very important to understand who we are as a people when it comes to politics. And if as I think that 99% of us are not really divided on a left/right spectrum then we need to break away from that idea in our polling and politics.

If the Tories are loosing support to the NDP then it says something more then just disaffected voter leaving the Cons or that people are looking for change.

The big difference between the Forum and Ekos numbers is in Québec, Forum having the Liberals in the lead on 34% and Ekos having the NDP in the lead at 38%. That seems to make pretty much all the difference at the national level.

But perhaps the most interesting result is that both polls *agree* that there is now a three-way race in Ontario. That is a big deal. Ontario has been slow to catch on to NDP momentum, but once it starts to take there, big blocks of seats come into play.

As per usual Forum regional numbers are wonky at best and not just when looking at them in comparison to other pollsters but also when compared to their own polling.

There last poll had the NDP, CPC and LPC in Quebec at 38%, 16% and 30% now it's 24%, 23% and 34%? how, why? I think it could be reasonable to say the LPC could gain 4% but the NDP loosing 14% and the CPC gaining 7%. Sorry but no that kind of shift would have been picked up by others and preceded by events on the ground.

Again in BC the shift is very odd, their last polls 39%, 28%, 25% now 32%, 33%, 28%. the NDP dropping 7%? No reason given or suggestion at to what is going on from the pollster's perspective.

The rest of the regional numbers are more believable in that they track with other polling and are smaller changes. But it's these major swings in the BC and QB which are changing the outcome of the overall poll give me a bad taste.

Ira it certainly has worked in the past. So far I don't see any reason why it won't work again unless you think Mulcair is so "arrogant" that he couldn't work with the Liberals ?? I don't think he is that stupid actually !!

I don't believe in a coalition at this stage. What could happen is the LPC and the NDP voting against the Throne speech and then asking the Governor General for one of them (most likely the one that finished second, which is, right now, looking like it might be the NDP) to form the government and then support the new Throne speech. But that would probably be short-lived, at most two years, maybe even less, depending on the state of the CPC.

As a Liberal I am asking you to please stop commenting, your comments are foolish. If there is an NDP_Liberal coalition that is the end of the Liberal party-obviously! Why are you intent on destroying "your own party"? I think you are really a Harperite who writes as a Liberal to discredit the Liberal party!

If these numbers hold for the next four months I believe we'll see national strategic voting at a level never seen before.

If anything, these number show very clearly the large majority of Canadians (over 72%) want a change in government. Their problem, it seems, is they don't know who to rally behind - Liberal or New Democrat; who they believe has the best chance of taking down Harper and the Conservatives..

Come October those craving change will vote locally for the one Candidate they see as best positioned to defeat their LOCAL Conservative candidate - be it New Democrat, Liberal or even Green.

In the past, vote splitting has proven a successful election strategy for both The Liberals and Conservatives - allowing them to win ridings by "coming up the middle" because of our antiquated first-past-the-post, winner take all election model. This time, however, the Canadian electorate seems poised to take matters into their own hands, and through strategic voting give Canada a government that is at least a little closer to actually reflecting voter intent.

Its really too soon to make this kind of prediction. Well I mean you can make it but the election campaign has not even started yet (formally at least) and its quite possible the conservatives gain 10 points in the polls during the campaign cruise to majority government, like the last election campaign leaving predictions months and months out rather wrong?

Actually I disagree. I think strategic voting is an important and unavoidable part of voting in our current system but having a three way race could actually decrease the amount of strategic voting. Strategic voting arises most strongly when there is a clear third (or fourth, etc) party that won't win certain seats but has some policy overlap with the party polling in second place. If everyone gets comfortable with the idea that the election will be a three way race between the CPC, the NDP and the Liberals then people will feel free to vote for what they really want. Predicting the outcome of a riding in a close race is harder so voting strategically will be harder. So the only rational thing to do is to vote your true intention and see who wins and be confident that none of them will get a blowout at the national level.

Honestly this is a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. The NDP are the Loyal Opposition. They did have this much support in the last election.

Did anyone believe that the Liberals weren't still lost in the wilderness? The shiny new leader had hype for a while, but no ideological differences to set them apart and a broken organizational machine, with an inexperienced leader, means they were never going to be that competitive. They just weren't.

Tom Mulcair was always going to be the primary opponent in the next election as he is in the house. There is a strong ideological choice between these two parties, which in an increasingly partisan environment people are looking for.

Vote for me because we should be in power isn't good enough anymore, neither is the big tent we will sell our souls to get elected model. The old boys just don't impress anymore.

The Conservatives have an efficient vote and get out their vote better. If we had likely voter models it would look much like the last election, which it probably will.

The Liberals may gain 20-30 seats. It would be hard for them not to, but the end result is looking very much the same, especially with the new seats and their distribution.

A popular city councillor doesn't count as a star candidate? I think he should. The Liberals had 1,200 people at Sohi's campaign launch a few days ago. No way the Liberals get that kind of crowd if he wasn't running.

A couple months ago I wrote that the CPC was on a slow steady plod to 39.6%. That's beginning to look like a peak.

There's too many ants nibbling at the CPC: Past Best Before Date, Duffy drip, drip, drip... C-51 turning off more people every day, Global warming concerns and Harper's signal lack of engagement on an issue that's definitely NOT going away and his apparent uninterest in aboriginal issues, muzzling of scientists, dismissal of independent agency heads who fail to take instructions from the PMO...

If by "anomalously" you mean the liberal party's fevered wet dream then yes. The word I would use is Bats*** crazy results... but then I like colourful language.

The BC numbers seem to be equally "anomalous". It's also very interesting that the NDP numbers seem to fall to the benefit the LPC, but maybe that just my bias showing.

It's even more interesting how Forum hasn't published the regional MOE for the "anomalous" results. Honestly how often do outlier polls happen because I hope this is just one of those?

I really want to believe that this is just a result of sample error or quirk of their polling method but this isn't the first time Forum has had really weird numbers that don't fit. Sigh... no regional MOE, wild swings with no justification on the ground and no real opinion given on their poll results. (IMHO) I got to say there a big stink coming off this poll and I can't decide if it's bad math or partisan polling.

I am most surprised at how badly the CPC is polling, with their full on advertising, and incumbent advantages being used to the hilt. I guess they are not working or if they are working, the CPC must be doing really really badly.

With Gilles Duceppe returning as Leader of the Bloc in that province, I wonder who's will hurt more in Quebec, The NDP or the Conservatives? And that the CAQ lost a seat to the Liberals in a provincial bi-elections does not bode well for the Con base in Quebec City. Quebec will be an interesting place to look at in the next few months!

Apparently Gilles Duceppe is taking over the Bloc in time for October. It'll be interesting to see how that shakes things up, Duceppe is still pretty popular while Beaulieu is generally seen as insane.

Duceppe led his party to 4 seats in the last election. His sheen never particularly diminished in English Canada, but then, who really cares what English Canada thinks about the leader of the Bloc? In Quebec, some will see it as desperate or opportunistic. I don't think his presumed return to the BQ will make so much of a difference.

Mario Beaulieu is stepping down as leader and becoming the party president so that Duceppe can be the leader.

Also Duceppe is very popular amongst separatists they were practically begging him to become leader of the PQ until he outright refused. There will be no BQ wave, but I can realistically see 10-15 seats as a potential high mark for next election with Duceppe.

Well, folks can have high hopes, I guess, but this is the same political stud who lost his own seat along with a few dozen others in the last election. Also, separatism has never been lower in support than it is now. Just because he's a known figure doesn't mean he'll be popular. PKP might want to take note on that score, too.

I would note that the Bloc, currently polling in my averages at 16.6%, would certainly be happier with Duceppe's 23.4% (and with the non-BQ vote more divided than in 2011, that makes a difference in seats).

Well, the comments in French-language media won't give Duceppe much cheer for his hopes of climbing back to the heights of 23.4%. His move is seen as arrogant and he's seen as yesterday's man, as far as I can tell. To reiterate, it was English Canada that liked Duceppe by the time 2011 rolled around, for Quebeckers he'd lost whatever allure he'd had.

Anything can happen in an election, but given that unlike 2011, the Bloc has only one incumbent, 1/4 the cash, few candidates, a much weakened and unenthusiastic PQ to rely on for support, is facing an NDP and Liberal party with Quebec-based leaders either of whom Quebec voters could potentially propel into power, and is retreading the same leader for the 7th election in a row (a new Canadian record, anyone?) I can't see the Bloc rebounding with Duceppe instead of Beaulieu. I would predict a similar result as when Jean Charest replaced Kim Campbell as PC leader after the 1993 meltdown - he was personally popular but his party was no longer taken seriously in Quebec and he only won 5 seats.

I'm pretty much with chimurenga. I too can see the futility of it all...but I admire Duceppe for being willing to risk falling on his sword for the party.

However, one wonders how truly effective Duceppe can be given the loss of his own seat. I wouldn't want Charest or Marois as the leader of a party for that reason either.

Some will regard Duceppe's impending return as significant. Others, not so much. What perhaps is most important is any number of high profile Quebecers who wouldn't touch the BQ leadership with a ten-foot pole.

I imagine Duceppe recognizes that if he doesn't do something, the Bloc will be truly destroyed after the next election. If he can manage to win them 10-15 seats, then maybe they'll be able to find a leader worth his or her salt to replace him and ensure the party survives in some respectable form afterwards. After the 2011 debacle, no one with a high profile wanted the job.

There might also be some personal thoughts going into this. PKP seems like he is going to make a run at a referendum after 2018, and Duceppe (at his age) might think this is his last chance to be an important player in it.

That's really ambitious of PKP to think that Quebeckers would even want to entertain another referendum let alone in 2018... Is it mostly just PKP blustering to gain headlines or are there support numbers that would encourage him to try for 2018?

As for Duceppe and the future of the BQ, I think the ship has sailed on their relevance and usefulness to Quebec. As a federalist, I have to say Mr. Duceppe was a impressive leader and MP. I think he was very thoughtful and forthright on many issues and never came off as diehard brake up Canada type of BQ Leader, more a very strong advocate for the province.

However again I think the BQ's time has long passed and even in 2011 they were more a hindrance to Quebec having an equal voice in Canada. My feeling is the best the BQ can do is 6 or 7 seat with him as leader, the NDP has built up a lot of trust and goodwill in the province and I think they represent the type of government Quebeckers want and they level inclusiveness they are looking for in the Canadian tapestry.

"This week, we had a look at second choice which is a very revealing indicator. It can help assess growth opportunities, and the relative distance separating the different options in the minds of voters. This is also more important in a world where there is rising ‘anyone-but-Harper’ sentiment and growing receptivity to strategic voting and coalitions.

The opportunities for growth for the Conservatives are extremely scant. Not only are they below thirty points, but almost nobody is considering them as a second choice. "

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