Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Now that Boston’s Al Horford is playing with a touch of give-me-the-ball swagger, the Cavaliers are in trouble. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Marc Stein

The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Boston Celtics hatched very similar plans back in the summer of 2016 when Kevin Durant made his landscape-changing foray into N.B.A. free agency.

The Thunder thought their best chance of keeping Durant was promising him that they'd sign Al Horford to be his frontcourt sideckick. The Celtics' pitch to Durant was essentially the same.

It's an instructive history lesson to keep in mind as the championship round of the N.B.A. playoffs dribbles into view. A prominent radio host in Boston may have foolishly dubbed him "Average Al" last season, but the 2018 postseason is showing everyone exactly why two teams out there believed Horford was the key to winning the Durant derby.

Durant, of course, spurned both teams and is doing just fine alongside the rest of his Hamptons Five buddies with the Golden State Warriors. He just delivered a devastating performance on the road in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals to nudge Golden State into a 1-0 lead over the Houston Rockets — the first of 15 series in the Steve Kerr era that the Warriors did not open at home.

But Horford, who chose to sign with Boston without waiting for Durant to decide where he wanted to play, looks every bit the Draymond Green-esque superstar glue guy that the Celtics envisioned.

You'll recall that Boston came to terms with Horford one day before Durant decided to join the Warriors in July 2016. The Celtics are paying nearly $28 million this season alone for that privilege and couldn't be happier. The reason: Boston wanted the guy who might be the most underrated player in the N.B.A.

Under any circumstances.

For as much dread as Boston Coach Brad Stevens' tactical stylings can inspire — and for all the trouble Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are causing as the Celtics' fill-in stars for the injured Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving — Cleveland has an Al Horford problem, above all, in the Eastern Conference finals.

Horford made his first seven shots in a Game 1 runaway for the Celtics reminiscent of the franchise’s famed "Memorial Day Massacre" of the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of the 1985 N.B.A. finals. The former Atlanta Hawk finished with 20 points, six assists and two blocked shots in Boston's 25-point triumph.

"If you're a bigger guy, [Horford] takes you out on the perimeter," Cleveland Coach Tyronn Lue said. "But when you have smaller guys, he does a good job of banging and getting to a good spot in the post-ups. He knows where he wants to go — left shoulder — but you still can't stop it."

Lue said all that, for the record, before Sunday's tipoff. Horford wound up playing even better than the Cavaliers feared.

Tristan Thompson has had success guarding Horford in the past, but Boston’s big man from the Dominican Republic, who turns 32 on June 3, is playing with more confidence and offensive aggression than he's ever shown. Horford’s 1-15 career record in the playoffs against LeBron James teams doesn't mean much now.

Horford simply has no weakness. He can score inside, shoot with range, pass neatly from a variety of spots on the floor, supply elite defense and move nimbly in modern defensive schemes — which is what N.B.A. teams treasure in their big men. And now that Horford is playing with a touch of give-me-the-ball swagger, Lue faces some difficult choices.

Restoring Thompson to the starting lineup is the natural counter, especially after Horford averaged just 12.4 points on 45.6 percent shooting against the Cavaliers in last year’s Eastern Conference finals. But that move will take an extra shooter off the floor for Lue, who also has to know that this isn't the same Horford.

This postseason, with the Celtics unable to lean on Irving and no longer built around Isaiah Thomas offensively, Boston is relying on a more diverse attack. Horford is averaging 17.2 points and 8.3 rebounds per game in the playoffs, after more modest production (12.9 points and 7.4 rebounds) during Boston's 55-win campaign.

The biggest headlines Horford made during the regular season might have come in February, when he unwittingly found himself alongside San Antonio's LaMarcus Aldridge as the last two players chosen by team captains Stephen Curry and LeBron James in the much-discussed inaugural player draft for the N.B.A. All-Star Game. Horford's flash-free game isn't built for an All-Star setting.

But if the All-Star rules were in place for James in this series — especially with the way Horford is playing now — something tells me that the opposing center would likely be the first name off LeBron’s board.

At nearly 80, Jerry West, the former Los Angeles Lakers legend, is still trying to make his mark on the N.B.A. — this time for the Clippers. Emily Berl for The New York Times

By MARC STEIN

For his last act, can the N.B.A. legend have a hand in fixing the Clippers once and for all?

This newsletter is OUR newsletter. So please weigh in with what you’d like to see here. To get your hoops-loving friends and family involved, please forward this email to them so they can jump in the conversation. If you’re not a subscriber, you can sign up here.

The Raptors may keep Toronto-area real estate agents busy this summer, as another disappointing playoff exit means no one is safe from being traded. Warren Toda/EPA, via Shutterstock

You ask; I answer. Every week in this space, I’ll field three questions posed via email at sportsnyt@gmail.com. (Please include your first and last name, as well as the city you’re writing in from, to enhance the chances your question is chosen.)

Q: Dwane Casey ... classic case to show why N.B.A. awards should be voted on after the playoffs. Aren't we talking about an “of the year” designation? — Brad Carter (Utah)

STEIN: I suspect you understand what's happening here even before registering this complaint. The league wants the regular season to matter as much as possible. If the voting for such awards factored in the playoffs, it would diminish what happens in the regular season even further. In other words: Not gonna happen.

Our story on Casey winning coach of the year from his peers, and Boston’s Brad Stevens not getting even one vote, touched on several of the factors that are presumed to have led to Stevens' blanking. Such as: potential jealousy from rival coaches because of all the praise Stevens gets; and the notion that, even after five seasons in Boston, he's still somehow regarded as a "college guy" from a different world. But I want to expound on one more element of this multi-faceted debate that seemed to rile up N.B.A. Twitter.

The N.B.A, like it or not, sees the news media as the least biased and most thorough voting body for end-of-season awards. Which should explain why N.B.A. Executive of the Year and the National Basketball Coaching Association’s award are essentially the only two the news media doesn't vote on.

No one is suggesting that the news media is unbiased, or that it never makes shaky choices in its voting. But it's not controversial to suggest that N.B.A. coaches and front-office executives are more apt to factor friendships — or feuds — into their selections than N.B.A. reporterdom.

Q: Did the Raptors basically peak at the wrong time — similar to when Michael Jordan was ruling the East? And what should they do: Rebuild or retool? — Alfredo Rodriguez

STEIN: I would argue that this season was actually a sensational time to peak — if we dare assume that winning one championship would be enough to satisfy Raptors fans.

The Cavs haven't had less around LeBron James since the 2008 or 2009 playoffs. The Celtics, while clearly more dangerous than anyone thought without the injured Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving, are as vulnerable as they're likely to be for the foreseeable future. And the Sixers, as we all found out in the Boston series, are still so early in their evolution.

When you add it all up, Toronto's 2017-18 championship prospects couldn't have been much tastier. This group of Raptors doesn't sport a long-term outlook anywhere near Boston's or Philly's, but the opportunity squandered was massive. That's why changes are already underway.

Expect them to continue.

Word is that the Raptors quietly explored their DeMar DeRozan trade options last summer — before they had any inkling that a breakout season was looming — and I'd fully expect Toronto to explore those possibilities again. Not just with DeRozan but with anyone and everyone on the roster.

The Raptors, under the stewardship of the team president Masai Ujiri, typically move in a measured fashion. You have to think this summer will be different.

Q: Who do you think would make the best coaching choice for the Bucks? — Don Sauberan (Lincoln, Neb.)

STEIN: The question Don is really asking is: Who will win the Mike Budenholzer sweepstakes?

Milwaukee is believed to be the job Budenholzer wants most, but let's see. After multiple meetings with both the Bucks and the Raptors, Budenholzer could well have preferences that outsiders aren't privy to at this point.

The Raptors are the more stable organization and are known as the more willing spenders. But the Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo on their roster.

Getting this hire right is critical for Milwaukee, because the Bucks have to start winning in the playpffs to ensure that The Greek Freak — for as much as he openly loves Milwaukee — has reason to keep loving it. It's also fair to wonder how Budenholzer's system reputation would mesh with Antetokounmpo's improvisational nature.

We should know soon if it's Milwaukee or Toronto, but I can't call it yet. The only near-certain winner at this stage is the Atlanta, which owes Budenholzer an estimated $14 million-plus and want to see him get a new job more than anyone to let someone else pick up that tab.

Another great question: Where do Milwaukee or Toronto turn — especially the Raptors — if they don't land Budenholzer? That's even less clear.

By VICTOR MATHER

The West Coast is the best coast when it comes to winning N.B.A. championships. Ben Margot/Associated Press

11

Jerry West last sat on the N.B.A.'s lottery dais 11 years ago, representing the Memphis Grizzlies in 2007. The Grizzlies had the best chance to win the No. 1 overall pick that year, thanks to a league-worst record of 22-60. But they wound up slipping to No. 4 — as far as Memphis could fall under the lottery rules in place at the time. West returns to the league's annual lottery show Tuesday night when he represents the Los Angeles Clippers.

20

The last 20 Western Conference teams to win the N.B.A. championship have been based in either Texas or California, with either Houston or Golden State poised to try to add to that total in June. The last Western Conference representatives from outside those two states to win it all were the Seattle SuperSonics in 1979.

7

It should be noted that seven teams in the 15-team West hail from either Texas (Dallas, Houston and San Antonio) or California (Golden State, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento).

19

The league’s four second-round series consumed just 19 of a possible 28 games. According to my Twitter pal @AlbertNahmad, that’s tied for the second-fewest number of games since the N.B.A. playoff field was expanded to 16 teams in 1984. The 1989 conference semifinals were also completed in just 19 games; 1999 and 2010 featured a record-low 18 games total in the second round.

12

LeBron James's teams have lost Game 1 on the road 12 times in his playoff career, including Sunday’s humbling Game 1 rout in Boston. Of those previous 12 series, LeBron's teams rallied from a 1-0 deficit to win just five of them.