Windows RT and Windows Phone 8 aren't doing well, but Microsoft can still make out with some help from Intel and Windows 8.1 If its great ARM experiment doesn't work out, supporting Microsoft's key applications on Android and iOS won't hurt.

This is not your dad's Microsoft. In the last few months Microsoft has been refocusing on Web services and devices instead of its mobile operating systems, Windows RT and Windows Phone 8 (WP8). Neither OS have been cutting the mustard in the market. Moving forward, I see Microsoft addressing its mobile OS issues in two ways.

It makes sense. This new Atom-based, long-battery life processor family can give Microsoft a low-end tablet that can run "real" Windows instead of crippleware RT or the unpopular WP8. This would also save developers time. They can just focus on Windows 8.1 without worrying about the underlying chip architecture. They would be working once more with the familiar x86 architecture.

Windows 8.1 on smartphones? Why not? Intel is making the chips.

Indeed, I think Microsoft may go even farther and replace WP8 with Windows 8.1 on smartphones. The Intel Silvermont/Merrifield chip family is designed for smartphones. Just as with Bay Trail, Microsoft could give its developers the familiar environment they already know. The tens of thousands of Microsoft developers who now focus on the desktop could far more easily write or port software to smartphones and tablets.

In the short run, it's a different story. The mobile world is an ARM world. Since Microsoft's own ARM-based mobile operating systems aren't doing well, Microsoft has shown that it isn't afraid to support its applications and services on Android and Apple's iOS.

Although Windows 8 has had its issues, it's a rip-roaring success compared to Microsoft's mobile OS adoption rates. Microsoft has also made it crystal clear that it's advancing the Windows 8 family with Windows 8.1. It's not giving RT and WP8 the same vote of confidence. There's lots of Windows 8.1 news coming out of Microsoft's Build 2013 developer conference, but little said about RT or WP8.

Sameer Singh, the head analyst of BitChemy Ventures, a technology incubator group, recently observed, "Since mid-2012, app addition on the Windows Phone platform seems to have flat-lined. This is in stark contrast with app addition on Android & iOS over the same timeframe, even though the developer population at the time was smaller." Singh continued, "The unmistakable conclusion … is that developers are losing interest in the Windows Phone platform."

But, you know what really told me that WP8 is in trouble? Microsoft's own developers aren't backing WP8. Microsoft just updated its Skype Voice-over-Internet Protocol (VoIP) program to support video mail with Skype video messaging. This feature is fully supported on Windows desktop, Windows 8, MacOS, iPhone, iPad, Android, and BlackBerry... but not on WP8.

Where would they draw the line? A paying market is a paying market, and if they don’t get customers from their own mobile customers, they’ll take the money from mobile platforms that do have a significant market share. I'm sure Microsoft will port its mobile Office apps to Android smartphones and tablets as well.

After all, Microsoft probably profits more from Android than it does from RT and WP8. Why not add on to their profits, and attempt to wean users away from the Google application ecosystem? It should prove a win-win for Microsoft.

Add up the numbers. The biggest mobile operating system markets are Android and iOS. Windows 8/8.1 at least has a presence on tablets, but RT? Why keep it on life-support if Microsoft can replace it with Windows 8.1 on Intel chips?

Mobile users are interested in Android and iOS. Microsoft's most loyal users and programmers are interested in Windows. Why not make them all happy by giving the first group the Microsoft applications they want and the second group not just one interface, Metro, across all platforms, but one operating system?

When I put it all together, I think Microsoft will return to its old ally, Intel, for its next generation of mobile devices while continuing to support its Web-based applications and services on any platform—not just its own.

In time, Microsoft's mobile operating systems, WP8 and RT, will be left to wither and die. They'll be replaced by Windows 8.1/Windows 9 as the next-generation x86 chip family becomes more tablet- and smartphone-friendly. Then, no matter who "wins" the mobile platform wars--Android, iOS or Windows; ARM or Intel--Microsoft will still find profits.

Thank You

By registering you become a member of the CBS Interactive family of sites and you have read and agree to the Terms of Use, Privacy Policy and Video Services Policy. You agree to receive updates, alerts and promotions from CBS and that CBS may share information about you with our marketing partners so that they may contact you by email or otherwise about their products or services.
You will also receive a complimentary subscription to the ZDNet's Tech Update Today and ZDNet Announcement newsletters. You may unsubscribe from these newsletters at any time.