Polls! Schmolls! Don’t Believe The Hype

In the wake of Karl Rove and the Bush administration, I question every bit of information disseminated by the media. The current object of my scrutiny are daily polls.

A rational mind may wonder at the HUGE gain in the polls by Sen John McCain after a snide convention and lackluster speech.

Well, the media would have you believe that its the Palin Effect. This pittbull in lipstick single handedly grabbed the American electorate and pulled it under her apron strings.

NOT!

More like PALINTOLOGY.

Palintology – A widely held belief in a doctrine without foundation in truth or reality.

How does one explain a huge bump in favor of McCain given that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 11 milliom nationwide?

According to the Huffington Post, the wide variation in polls has to do with sampling. Anyone who has taken a basic statistics course realizes how a flawed sample can alter your results.

Monday’s USA Today poll had a 48-47 split between Democrats and Republicans surveyed. That represents a nearly 10 point shift in party identification toward Republicans since USA Today’s July polling. When asked for comment, USA Today polling editor Jim Norman wrote that "it’s possible" that their latest sample includes too many Republicans. Though he added, "it’s also possible that we have too many Democrats," because "there’s always the chance of an over- or under-representation" in polls. SOURCE