After the euphoria of adding Scott Darling

Scott Darling is scheduled to meet with the media at PNC Arena at 4pm on Wednesday. So timing is perfect to fly this article out there on Wednesday morning timed well to be buried by articles on Wednesday night and Thursday morning that include quotes about wanting to win the Stanley Cup and other sound bites of Carolina Hurricanes hockey goodness.

After staring at near league bottom goaltending for the 2015-16 season but still making the decision to re-sign Cam Ward, retain goalie coach David Marcoux and just ride forward on Eddie Lack’s contract, the elation in the Hurricanes hockey community over the trade for Scott Darling was justified. The step in a new direction is in itself reason for optimism.

Scott Darling represents three layers of conceptual goodness

As I said in my commentary after the trade and the signing, at the most basic level, the set of transactions represented three things. First, they showed that Francis was going to address the goalie situation this summer after not doing so last summer. Second, it clearly signified that Francis was shifting from “rebuild at all costs” to at least a more balanced approach that aimed for making the 2018 NHL playoffs. And finally, even though Scott Darling cannot assure a different ending to the 2017-18 season, it will at a minimum disperse the angst that has found its way to the same position too often in recent years.

Darling is also one of the higher-end upgrades available

During an offseason with unique circumstances around the expansion draft that will make an unprecedented number of viable goalie options available, I think it is impossible to say right now who the best option is. That will only become clearer once we see results. But based on everything I have read and various rankings, I think it is fair to say that Francis landed an option in the top tier and a player who at least has a reasonable case to being the best available.

Credit to Ron Francis

Credit goes to Ron Francis for recognizing the need to upgrade in net and aggressively making a move to address it. Only time will tell if he made the right choice, but regardless of the outcome, no one will be able to say that Francis did not try or that the team failed because of Francis’ unwillingness to act or make the financial investment needed.

But goalies by nature are erratic and unpredictable

But because of the finicky nature of goalies and how erratic they can be, saying that Ron Francis made a good move to try to address the need is incredibly different than saying that he for certain fixed the problem.

One-time franchise goalies who garnered massive contracts and long-term commitments have flopped and actually recovered in some cases. That list includes Ryan Miller, Roberto Luongo, Pecca Rinne, Kari Lehtonen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jimmy Howard and none other than Cam Ward. At the time each of these players was signed, he was a young can’t miss type of goalie. Interestingly, while all had down stretches, many have rebounded in the long run.

My unscientific math says that no matter how good things look on the front end, any goalie goalie coming into a new situation has no better than a 75 percent chance of being successful especially right out of the gate.

Ron Francis’ track record at the goalie position

This might sound harsh, but if Francis is right with Scott Darling, I think it could actually be fair to say that it will be his first decision-making win for the goalie position.

If you care for the long version of the history, in March I wrote a detailed chronology of the goalie position under Ron Francis and Bill Peters. Part 1 is HERE, and part 2 is HERE.

His first summer as general manager included hiring David Marcoux. Under Marcoux’s leadership, the Hurricanes trucked along near the bottom of the NHL in goaltending statistics. In addition, in consecutive years, the team saw two different goalies take a significant step down after transitioning to Marcoux. First it was Anton Khudobin in 2014-15, and then it was Eddie Lack in 2015-16.

In his second summer as the general manager, Francis made a big trade for Eddie Lack and then before seeing Lack play in a Hurricanes’ uniform committed to two more years of Lack at $2.75 million per year. We can debate whether or not those decisions were smart at the time, but in terms of yielding results, I think we can fairly say that Francis went 0 for 3 that summer. We can debate whether the cause was injuries, coaching, how he was used or some combination of all three, but I think it is fairly clear that in total Lack has not worked and also that Francis would have waited before committing to two more years if he had a mulligan on that deal.

In his third summer, Francis saw Cam Ward come off his expensive long-term contract therefore freeing up one of the two available NHL goalie slots. Before trade season around the NHL draft or free agency even started, Francis moved quickly and assertively to re-sign Cam Ward. Ward had a stretch of strong play in the middle of the season, but when the dust settled on the 2016-17 season, Ward had again fallen into the bottom half of the league by virtually any goalie metric.

In short, thus far Ron Francis’ track record in terms of goalie decisions is a run of misses.

And then there is the issue of goalie management

I included a few of the details in the chronology linked to above, but there is very much an element of goalie management that can contribute to success. The Ottawa Senators have this uncanny knack for first developing goalies but then I think equally importantly just chucking into an NHL lineup with the right mindset (and do not believe for a second that is not important) to succeed.

Meanwhile, it is not clear that Bill Peters has a feel for this. After two years, it took MAFS to help Lack find a higher gear. And the middle of the season saw Peters ride 32-year old Ward for an entire quarter of the season with only one off day before he seemed to collapse and fade down the stretch.

I admit that it is impossible to judge whether Peters should have done different and also whether he could have done better given the personnel and circumstances. But I will say that my non-scientific opinion is that this is something worth watching.

What happens if Scott Darling starts slow and puts up 2-3 bad outings to start the season? Does Peters show commitment and try to ride him out of it? Or would Darling be better off with a short break to reset?

In an ideal world, Darling will the ground running and sprint right into Vezina contention while lifting the Hurricanes into the playoffs, but what if the ride is bumpier?

Scott Darling himself

And though many will consider it heresy to question anything about Scott Darling while we are still in the honeymoon period, at some point I think it needs to be acknowledged (partly just due to the erratic goalie thing detailed above) that as great of an option as he is, there is some risk.

What jumped out me in the press release following his signing was when he said, “I’m going to do everything in my power to learn how to be the best starter I can be. I have a good network of goalie friends, and I’m going to be picking their brains and asking for help, just trying I can do everything I can to be successful in that role.” The quote highlights the fact that he has never really been an NHL starter. Sure he filled in admirably for Crawford in Chicago, but that just is not the same as being the guy.

Statistics-wise, all indications are that Darling is ready, and that is obviously what Ron Francis is betting on with a 4-year commitment at $4.15 million per year. Darling’s .923 save percentage and 2.37 goals against average at the NHL level check out fine, but what also stands out is the fact that he has only 75 games of NHL experience.

As long as we are teetering on the edge of doubt, I would go so far as to say that Darling looks eerily similar to the Eddie Lack that arrived in Raleigh with a nice luster before having it chipped off in a hurry. Lack was coming off a strong season in Vancouver that saw him lead the Canucks to the playoffs. Lack had only 82 games of NHL experience when he arrived, but it was okay because he was an emerging starter on an upward trajectory and ready to seize the reins. Until he wasn’t.

Rescue me from goaltender paranoia!

Again, I generally grade Francis highly despite the run of goalie missteps. More than anything, I appreciate that Francis is going for it. And when presented with the many options, I like Scott Darling and consider him in the top tier of options.

So I’m just scared and scarred from our painful history and just a little bit paranoid, right?

Everyone chime in and tell me to be more optimistic and steer away from the dark side! GO!

Go Canes!

12 Comments

dogbutler
on May 10, 2017 at 5:51 am

We have already said goodbye to Marcoux. That’s a sure sign Darling and his backup will maximize their potential this season. Plus the Canes are better at shots against per game than Chicago. That should help him.

Matt. dogbutler is absolutely on the right track. So no need for paranoia. I am on record as saying that the coaching was cause #1. That has been fixed.

I also think you are confusing goalies being unpredictable with the game of hockey being unpredictable. I am certain all the goalies you mentioned cover the spectrum as far as personality, work habits, pre-game preparation. So saying they have “finicky natures” misses the point. I have mentioned before that 538 has stated that hockey is the game most subject to randomness. And it is not just goalies that are impacted. Look at the variation in shooting % for even elite players: for a full season Crosby between 11.8 and 17.3, P. Kane 9.1 and 16; Skinner 7.7 and 14.4.

Sure better coaching, more consistent preparation, having a predictable systematic defense in front of a goalie all improve results over an entire year. But even with all that, there is going to be at least .15-.20 difference in SV% from “best” year to “worst” year over a goalie’s career. It is mostly due to randomness. Life–especially life in hockey–is like that.

dogbutler and ctcaniac are spot on with their comments and there is no need for me to repeat their thoughts. My only addition would be, What were the other alternatives? My answer to that none that you couldn’t raise the same cautions about. Bishop or Fleury you might say. Well, neither is coming off a stellar year, both would cost substantially more, and Bishop would not sign here for less than a king’s ransom and Rutherford is not going to trade Fleury to a team within the division or conference if he trades him at all. In the end Darling IMO is the BEST BET to do well behind a really strong defensive core in front of him. In addition, he will have Cam Ward (IMO) there to jump in so he won’t be required to play an excessive number of games. (The last sentence was added for ctcaniac. It’s also true as I believe Ward will be a great number 2 goalie for the team in his twilight years. By the way, he will not only be great as a backup, he will be great in the clubhouse. You’re welcome ct.)

Testify RedRyder! There were no better alternatives in 2015-16? (Who wants Andersen over Darling right now?) Yes, Marcoux needed to be gone, if solely for his documented destruction of Eddie Lack.

I mean we’re fans, we’re always going to be paranoid. But RedRyder is exactly right. Cam Ward was never supposed to play 60 games last year. He had to. Cut his workload in half, give him some intense competition in practice, and I think he’ll be one of the top backup goalies in the league if he’s up to it. Goaltending is random, just because it’s so much more of a mental position than anything else. I agree with CT its all random to an extent, but if you get in a goalies head (like Marcoux did with Lack, bless his heart) bad things happen, regardless of how much talent you have (see DiPietro, Rick). It’s a delicate balance, adjusting mechanics while still maintaining the mental edge, but it can be done. Is Tom Barrasso still available?

To be clear, I agree that Francis needed to do something (points for that after not doing something last summer), and as far as the alternatives go, I like that Francis did not try to go cheap (points for that too).

So I’m NOT saying it was a bad or wrong decision. I’m mostly just saying that I think anyone who pegs this at 100% or even 90% probability of success is likely off base simply because of the nature of the goalie beast.

Matt, I’m sorry… but you still have work to do before you can find the proper level of paranoia vis a vis Ronnie…BUT WELCOME TO THE DARK SIDE! Maybe hockey goalies just don’t fit ANY coaching routine, concepts…?

Totally agree that goalies in general don’t necessarily benefit from a coaching “routine”. Tenders that make it to the NHL most likely don’t need a day to day coach working on their technique as they’ve already made it this far with a technique that works for them.
I think someone like Cujo could be a real boon for our goalies as he could provide an experienced voice that can help with analysis on replays(“when this happens I would do ___”) and give advice based on his time as an NHL goaltender. If your goalie really needs his technique rebuilt, he probably shouldn’t be in the NHL or you can bring in consultants to work on specifics with the goalie as needed.

Matt, I think the Chorus seems to think you’re being a little too paranoid, supported by a bunch of good reasons, and I agree with them. It’s always a good idea to evaluate the downside and then to have a Plan B, but I think your last point is the one that excites me the most: RF took bold action to fix an obvious need to improve the team for 2017-2018. This is a sign that RF feels like this team is close and the window for consistent winning is now open. I’m expecting a busy and exciting offseason.

There are all kinds of risks we could talk about, but to me they are asymmetric in our favor: the odds of things working out better than “normal expectations” are greater than the odds of things working out worse.

With the Rangers falling last night and the Capitals destined to break up over the summer (Cup or no Cup), the prospects in our divisions are improving. It’s a good time to be a Canes fan.

Goalie paranoia is real, understandable and unfortunately irreversible. The randomness in the game in general, and what happens between the pipes specifically, contributes inordinately to the eventual outcome of every game. Someone once pointed out to me the game is actually played on ice. On ice! What’s up with that? If you want predictable results play the game on wood or concrete and then make betting legal and we’d all be rich. You don’t have to look to far right now to see examples of the craziness regarding goalies. Look at Fleury in Pittsburgh. Spectacular games, unbelievable athleticism and he pretty much carried the Penguins the first four games. If the Caps win the next one no one will remember those performances. If he gives up a single bad goal and they lose in game 7, he’ll be a chump. There isn’t another sport where “what have you done for me lately” line is any more appropriate and with goalies in particular. My first psychology teacher once told me the difference between a neurotic and psychotic is the neurotic builds dream castles in the sky, the psychotic moves in. Somewhere in there is an analogy regarding goalies, maybe they drive the moving the truck and we’re just the poor suckers relocating from place to place. I don’t know, but I feel your pain Matt and the Lack comparison is valid. We’ll see.