How We're Doing: Vermont projected to lose population and what it means

Oct. 30, 2013

Written by

Art Woolf

Through most of the 19th and 20th centuries, Vermontís population grew slowly, and sometimes not at all. In the 100 years between 1850 and 1950, the state population grew by just 20 percent, from 315,000 to 380,000. Over the same period of time, the U.S. population increased more than 600 percent, growing from 23 million to 150 million.

In contrast to that pattern, over most of our lifetimes, Vermontís population has been growing close to the national average. Thatís very different from the stateís past, and it will mostly likely be very different from our future.

The state of Vermont recently issued a population forecast for the next 20 years. In its more conservative scenario, Vermontís population will grow by only 3,000 people in the current decade and then decline by 8,000 in the 2020s. That is, in 2030, Vermont will have the same number of residents as it had in 2010.

How realistic is this scenario? Given that Vermontís population hasnít grown at all since the 2010 census count and grew very slowly in the preceding decade, this seems very plausible. Vermontís low birth rate means our natural rate of population increase is slowing. Relatively few immigrants are attracted to Vermont from other nations and Census Bureau data show that more people leave Vermont each year than move in from other states.

These patterns make Vermont more similar to countries like Japan, South Korea, and many European nations than to most states in the U.S. Those nations have low birth rates and, especially Japan and South Korea, low rates of immigration.

In many American states, Asian and Latin American immigrants are important sources of population growth and their birth rates ó which are higher than that of native-born Americans ó add to population growth. Vermont has few Asians or Latin Americans.

Low rates of population growth create problems for an economy and for society. It means domestic demand for goods and services do not increase as quickly as it otherwise would, reducing business opportunities for local firms, and that employers find it more difficult to find workers. It also means the existing population structure ages. As a result, there will be fewer younger people to take care of, and pay for, the increasing number of older people.

Demographics is not necessarily destiny, but Vermontís stagnant population means the state will, in some ways, be returning to its past. Our population remained virtually unchanged for more than a centur. The population growth Vermont experienced over the past four decades may turn out to be just an interruption in a long period of population stagnation.

Art Woolf is associate professor of economics at UVM and editor of The Vermont Economy Newsletter.