Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence down slightly in January – now 147.4 (down 1.4pts); lowest for exactly a year

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,145 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 22 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of January 2017.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence for January fell to 147.4 (down 1.4pts). Consumer Confidence is now the same as a year ago in January 2016 (147.4) but is still a large 13.2pts above the long-run average (2005-2017) of 134.2.

The small decrease in Indonesian Consumer Confidence this month was caused by less confidence about buying major household items.

Now 35% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the equal lowest figure for this indicator in nearly half-a-dozen years, since April 2011) compared to 11% (up 2ppts) that said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A large majority, 67% (unchanged), of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to just 6% (up 2ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator sinceDecember 2015).

In terms of the Indonesian economy now 81% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months and 19% (down 1ppt) say we’ll have ‘bad times’ financially.

Additionally, looking at the longer-term, 91% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 9% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ economically.

Just over half, 52% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items(the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since February 2016)and 44% (up 3ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items(also the highest figure for this indicator since February 2016).

Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Research Indonesia, says:

"On the one hand, Consumer Confidence is at its lowest in a year. The slow global economy and low commodity prices, the festering Ahok saga in Jakarta’s gubernatorial elections and the simmering tension has dampened enthusiasm, but only a little. On the other hand, the index is still very high at 147, a reflection of the shared belief that Indonesia's future as a rising economic power is secure".

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,145 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 22 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of January 2017.

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

March 07 2017

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell this week to 113.9, down 4.4% and almost entirely reversing the previous week’s gain. The 4-week moving average now sits at its lowest level since December 2016.

The Reactor (the original Worm) is an effective, proven methodology for measuring emotive (virtually unconscious) reactions to ads and concepts, element by element, second by second. It has been proven with thousands of ad tests worldwide over more than 20 years.

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