I've been using actuals since I started my jackpot quest in February. In the last month I've also been using the theoretical math models to chart actual drawing variance. I think there is a danger in using actual drawings in place of, not in conjunction with, theoretical models...your analysis may come out skewed.

In my experiences with excel, I find the skew comes from the limited number of sample draws versus the total number of possibilities. The theoretical models tell you what would happen after the dust settles, where the numbers are expected to be frequency-wise... observations don't agree because there are only usually a few hundred or a few thousand results and millions of possibilities.

The theory helps set ranges, but observation helps narrow them down to useful size.

here's an example from the MUSL powerball...

5/53

Theoretical ranges...

(Sorted Order) First ball- 1 to 49 - 48 numbers to pick from Second Ball- 2 to 50 - 48 numbers to pick from THird Ball- 3 to 51 - 48 numbers to pick from Fourth Ball- 4 to 52 - 48 numbers to pick from Fifth Ball- 5 to 53 - 48 numbers to pick from

Observed Range with spikes trimmed (3 or more occurrences in boundary numbers)... First ball- 1 to 31 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from Second Ball- 5 to 34 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from THird Ball- 14 to 46 - leaves 32 numbers to pick from Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 - leaves 33 numbers to pick from Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 - leaves 21 numbers to pick from

We know all high or all low spikes can and do happen, but to be within 80% of the actual observed ranges of all 205 powerball draw results since the new matrix went into play (10-9-2002), the numbers above better serve your immediate needs.

range is 1 to 42, in theory... and 1 to 41 observed (using 3 or more hits to count)...

if you remove the missing and low frequency numbers, you get

Powerball - 1 to 41 (12-14-24-26-27)

picking numbers from the above lists will not guarantee a win, you just put yourself in the observed history "Hit Zone"... Unfortunately the numbers don't know what ranges they are supposed to fall into, so luck is still a piece of the puzzle... 1% system, 98% luck, 1% actually buying a ticket to be in the game...

In my experiences with excel, I find the skew comes from the limited number of sample draws versus the total number of possibilities. The theoretical models tell you what would happen after the dust settles, where the numbers are expected to be frequency-wise... observations don't agree because there are only usually a few hundred or a few thousand results and millions of possibilities.

The theory helps set ranges, but observation helps narrow them down to useful size.

here's an example from the MUSL powerball...

5/53

Theoretical ranges...

(Sorted Order) First ball- 1 to 49 - 48 numbers to pick from Second Ball- 2 to 50 - 48 numbers to pick from THird Ball- 3 to 51 - 48 numbers to pick from Fourth Ball- 4 to 52 - 48 numbers to pick from Fifth Ball- 5 to 53 - 48 numbers to pick from

Observed Range with spikes trimmed (3 or more occurrences in boundary numbers)... First ball- 1 to 31 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from Second Ball- 5 to 34 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from THird Ball- 14 to 46 - leaves 32 numbers to pick from Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 - leaves 33 numbers to pick from Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 - leaves 21 numbers to pick from

We know all high or all low spikes can and do happen, but to be within 80% of the actual observed ranges of all 205 powerball draw results since the new matrix went into play (10-9-2002), the numbers above better serve your immediate needs.

range is 1 to 42, in theory... and 1 to 41 observed (using 3 or more hits to count)...

if you remove the missing and low frequency numbers, you get

Powerball - 1 to 41 (12-14-24-26-27)

picking numbers from the above lists will not guarantee a win, you just put yourself in the observed history "Hit Zone"... Unfortunately the numbers don't know what ranges they are supposed to fall into, so luck is still a piece of the puzzle... 1% system, 98% luck, 1% actually buying a ticket to be in the game...

In my experiences with excel, I find the skew comes from the limited number of sample draws versus the total number of possibilities. The theoretical models tell you what would happen after the dust settles, where the numbers are expected to be frequency-wise... observations don't agree because there are only usually a few hundred or a few thousand results and millions of possibilities.

The theory helps set ranges, but observation helps narrow them down to useful size.

here's an example from the MUSL powerball...

5/53

Theoretical ranges...

(Sorted Order) First ball- 1 to 49 - 48 numbers to pick from Second Ball- 2 to 50 - 48 numbers to pick from THird Ball- 3 to 51 - 48 numbers to pick from Fourth Ball- 4 to 52 - 48 numbers to pick from Fifth Ball- 5 to 53 - 48 numbers to pick from

Observed Range with spikes trimmed (3 or more occurrences in boundary numbers)... First ball- 1 to 31 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from Second Ball- 5 to 34 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from THird Ball- 14 to 46 - leaves 32 numbers to pick from Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 - leaves 33 numbers to pick from Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 - leaves 21 numbers to pick from

We know all high or all low spikes can and do happen, but to be within 80% of the actual observed ranges of all 205 powerball draw results since the new matrix went into play (10-9-2002), the numbers above better serve your immediate needs.

range is 1 to 42, in theory... and 1 to 41 observed (using 3 or more hits to count)...

if you remove the missing and low frequency numbers, you get

Powerball - 1 to 41 (12-14-24-26-27)

picking numbers from the above lists will not guarantee a win, you just put yourself in the observed history "Hit Zone"... Unfortunately the numbers don't know what ranges they are supposed to fall into, so luck is still a piece of the puzzle... 1% system, 98% luck, 1% actually buying a ticket to be in the game...

good luck and keep the math flowing... cool forum!

Hypersoniq,

Please disregard my failed attempt above to communicate.

Is your above analysis based on the ball frequencies reported by MUSL on it site or do they refer to the about 110 draws since the game went 5/53 on Oct.9,2002? If you based it on the new game data, could you tell us where they are posted?

I only count the draws since 10/9/02... there are currently 205 draws under the new matrix with draw 206 tonight.

I don't know if they are posted anywhere, I used game history and excel to get frequency data. I keep a chart of occurrences in several columns (overall, positional (sort order) and positional (draw order)).

Pure statistical analysis is a proven truth. It's a great way to determine what your your error ratios are going to be when you select your reduction criteria. But, seems to be lacking in the area of current dvents. I think the most useful information, after the basic statistics has been performed, is applying statistical concepts to the current data, occurrences over a range, last time picked, pairings,....etc. The question is, is what is the best combination to yeild to best results.

Would anyone like to comment one what they think is the best combinaton?