Time not on the side of the Gaza peacemakers

Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas have struck a fragile ceasefire to end eight days of fighting over the Gaza enclave, but this is unlikely to prove any more than a temporary cessation of hostilities in the absence of a genuine Middle East peace initiative.

Strenuous US efforts, aided by Egypt and other Middle Eastern regimes, to bring about an end to this latest round of bloodshed reflects deep concerns in Washington and other capitals of a downward spiral in a conflict that risks further destabilising the entire region.

US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton
’s shuttle between Israeli and Palestinian leaders in Cairo, Ramallah and Jerusalem was driven by the knowledge that time was not on the side of the peacemakers if a further escalation of the conflict was to be avoided.

Clinton was not understating the gravity of the situation when she said in Cairo in announcing the ceasefire: “This is a critical moment for the region.’’

She was referring not simply to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, but more broadly to turmoil in Syria and risks of overflow conflict in Lebanon and Turkey, and the brooding menace of Iran further afield. The Americans are also worried about threats to stability in Egypt itself, Jordan and the Gulf.

These are fraught moments across the region capable of being exploited by various players with an interest in destabilisation, including Iran itself, whose surrogates in the Palestinian areas are at the heart of the conflict.

Iran’s supply of rocket components and technology to Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip is highly provocative, and designed to be so.

“One key lesson Iran may have learned from the past week is that it can distract the world from Syria and gain political leverage over moderate Arabs at little or no cost or risk,’’ said Anthony Cordesman, Middle East authority at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Iran is one of the Syrian Assad regime’s few remaining supporters.

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Clear evidence that Iran has been supplying Gaza militants with the wherewithal for longer-range Grad missiles capable of reaching population centres in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, has added a new layer of risk to the Middle East equation.

US policy in the region has been to restrain Israeli threats to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities to enable a sanctions process to do its work, but Iranian provocations play into the hands of Israeli hawks and weaken US arguments for restraint.

Israel’s determination to teach Gazans a lesson was underscored by the intensity of its attacks in the hours before the ceasefire came into effect, with the bombing of bridges, government buildings and businesses. None of this holds out much prospect of a genuine end to the conflict.

“At best, a ceasefire will not offer anyone in Gaza a real future or stop some new form of asymmetric attack on Israel,’’ Cordesman writes.

“The only question is how long a pause will last and when new attacks will come. A land invasion and air strike might – or might not – buy time."

Time is not on the side of the peacemakers, as Clinton would not need reminding.