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Wednesday, July 2, 2014

FANTASY BASEBALL STATUS REPORT: STEVE PEARCE 1B BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Sometimes opportunity is everything. In the case of Baltimore Orioles scorching hot 1B Steve Pearce, that mantra certainly applies as he comes off a two game stretch where he hit 3 home runs and drove in 6 RBI in only 8 at-bats. Taking full advantage of a chance to play everyday in a hitting ballpark, Pearce brought his season totals to 10 home runs and 27 RBI while hitting .327 in only 150 at-bats. Just for good measure Pearce also stole 2 bases. His recent run has brought Pearce back into the fantasy baseball fold, especially at a time when home runs become more and more of a precious commodity by the year. Having failed to stick as an everyday player through stints with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, and New York Yankees, Pearce is doing what he can to show that he can be a help, at least in the short-term. The question is how much longer this run can go on for Pearce and his brand new fantasy baseball owners.

In looking at the advanced stats as we always do in situations such as this, a few things stand out. One is that Pearce .368 BABIP is doing much of the work in boosting his average to the .327 mark. This from a guy who is only a career .253 hitter. A 21 percent K rate will also bring the average down once the luck turns the other way. In addition, Pearce has never hit more than 14 home runs at any level which puts the 10 he currently has in outlier territory. Once opposing pitchers start taking advantage of the low 8 percent walk rate and the high K rate, Pearce won't be getting much to hit which will knock down the average and dry up the home runs. Which means Pearce would than go back to having no value like he always has been classified.

In short, what Steve Pearce is doing now is something we see dozens of times during the fantasy baseball season. A guy who is off the radar gets hot and people pick him up. The law of averages eventually take over and the player goes back to his old useless self and gets dropped en masse. Never to be heard from again for awhile. So it will go with Pearce.