Fifteen months after it blasted out of the gate with an impressive array of talent, the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix is nearly at an end.

And while a number of circumstances outside the cage have robbed the competition of much luster, the finals promise an exciting clash between two of the best big men outside the UFC.

The winner, of course, takes one step closer to that promotion. Before that, the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix title serves as the final belt handed out before the Zuffa sister promotion shutters its big-man division completely.

“Strikeforce: Heavyweight Grand Prix Finale” takes place Saturday at HP Pavilion in San Jose, Calif. Main-card fights air live on Showtime while preliminary-card fights air on Showtime Extreme.

Did the grand prix turn out as everyone expected?

Absolutely not. When Strikeforce announced the eight-man competition in January 2011, most observers assumed that Fedor Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem would meet in the semifinals, and Josh Barnett would meet one of the two in the finals.

The latter part of that statement proved correct, but the former couldn’t have gone any differently. Emelianenko was pounded on by a bigger and stronger Antonio Silva en route to a TKO loss via doctor’s stoppage. Then Strikeforce was purchased in March 2011 by UFC parent company Zuffa, which threw the entire fate of the tournament into question.

Zuffa promised an end to the competition, and more shakeups arose. Overeem won his quarterfinal match, but he was injured – then cut from the promotion’s roster – as the result of a dispute between his former managers and Zuffa. The same month he signed with the UFC, September, an undefeated alternate took his place: Daniel Cormier (9-0 MMA, 6-0 SF). The former Olympic wrestler then knocked out Silva to set up the finals.

Barnett (31-5 MMA, 2-0 SF), meanwhile, steamrolled the overmatched Brett Rogers and Sergei Kharitonov. There were scheduling snafus as Zuffa staff took over operations for Strikeforce, and as Strikeforce events competed for space with the UFC. Injuries delays struck; Cormier busted his hand knocking out Silva and then re-broke it in a sparring session at the end of this past year.

Strikeforce fighters, including heavyweights, began popping up in the UFC. Critics questioned whether the promotion was destined for the scrap heap.

Those questions continue as we head into tomorrow’s event. The winner of the grand prix will get a victory lap sometime in the near future with a final Showtime-televised fight before the division folds. But the winner’s opponent is uncertain, and given the dearth of heavyweights in Strikeforce, the promotion may have to sign new talent or import a fighter from the UFC. For someone to temporarily give up his spot in the world’s biggest fight promotion for a non-title bout in a dying division, incentives will need to be given to the fighter who takes the risk.

But before that situation comes to ahead, the finals need to take place. There are several scenarios to consider with Barnett vs. Cormier.

Cormier lands the big punch off the bat: If the former Olympian proved anything in his tournament run, it’s that he’s got heavy hands. Only Jeff Monson’s iron head stopped him from being knocked out completely by Cormier’s faster, more technical standup work, and Silva didn’t last long after taking a series of hard punches. Long in his past, Barnett chose to stand with a dangerous Pedro Rizzo, left his jaw exposed, and went to the canvas with a single punch. Even if Barnett is only briefly stunned, Cormier is bound to swarm with punches and earn a stoppage.

Barnett sweeps from the bottom: Cormier promised his wrestling would be on display, and Barnett hasn’t faced a good American wrestler in competition in the past four years of his career. At some point, the takedown will come. But it’s what Barnett does from that position that could be his best chance of winning the fight. Whether he sweeps from the bottom or works a submission that forces Cormier to tap, Barnett doesn’t need to be on top to win in this fight.

Cormier lays and prays: Always a possibility, particularly if Cormier gets tagged by a punch from Barnett. If nothing else, Cormier could hold position and work enough ground and pound to avoid a standup. Against the cage, he’ll have to work much harder to keep Barnett on his back. But on open canvas, it’s going to take a lot to move him if he gets top position.

Other main card fights:

Champ Gilbert Melendez (20-2 MMA, 10-1 SF) vs. Josh Thomson (19-4 MMA, 10-2 SF): The first time they met, Josh Thomson soundly outstruck Melendez to steal the Strikeforce lightweight title he originated by beating Clay Guida. The second time, Melendez’s striking was on point. This time around, who knows? But Melendez said he’s made adjustments in training that stuck with the loss to Thomson, who most recently turned in a plodding wrestling match against K.J. Noons. The former champ won’t be able to bully Melendez on the mat, and Melendez is going to have a tough time getting him down. So the fight should mostly play out on the feet, and the two are so evenly matched that it’s a question of who had a better camp and who has a better performance that night for the five-round fight.

Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante (11-3 MMA, 4-2 SF) vs. Mike Kyle (19-8-1 MMA, 3-3-1 SF): This light-heavyweight bout is a rematch of one held three years ago under Strikeforce’s previous owners, and it’s baffling why the fight is not for a title given the title vacancy at the weight class. Cavalcante, who took the title from Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal and lost it to Dan Henderson, fought an evenly matched bout with Kyle in their first meeting but got caught with the Strikeforce veteran’s heavy hands. This time around, Cavalcante is well-served to kick from the outside and close to take down Kyle. Kyle needs to get in punching range and prepare not only a sprawl but good clinch defense, as Cavalcante’s muay Thai is devastating. The winner of the bout should get an immediate title shot as reparation for not getting it this time around.

Naj-Shon Burrell (8-1 MMA, 3-0 SF) vs. Chris Spang (4-1 MMA, 1-1 SF): A welterweight clash sees Burrell attempt to improve his Strikeforce record to 4-0 after a split-decision win over James Terry that extended his overall win streak to six. That’s the number of TKO or KO wins he has on his record, which means he’ll be coming after the less-experienced Spang, who most recently suffered a decision loss to Ricky Legere Jr.

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