Brad Johnson’s ‘Frankenstorm’ malfeasance masquerading as idiocy

Harsh headline, I know, but when you read what former Climate Progress propagandist Brad Johnson of the TV weathercaster pressure group “Forecast the Facts” has sent out in a press release late Friday regarding hurricane Sandy, you can only be left with one conclusion; he’s purposely anti-science and anti-factual wrapped up in a bought and paid for political wrapper.

This isn’t the first time he has claimed punishment from on high is retribution for not seeing climate issues his way, readers may recall he blamed conservative states for bringing tornadoes upon themselves by not acting on the climate issues he and his fellow propagandist, Joe Romm were pushing at the time. Three scientists, Kevin Trenberth, Michael Mann, and Gavin Schmidt provided quotes to make that exercise in Tabloid Climatology™ complete.

Here’s his press release today, followed by a factual rebuttal. Bolding in the body of the PR is mine.

“If the candidates won’t listen to the voters demanding they break their climate silence, maybe they will listen to Mother Nature’s October Surprise. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people. But what their role as national leaders demands that they also do is explain that Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution.”

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Lest you think this sort of logic affliction is unique to Brad Johnson, I’ll point out that his cheering section over at Grist says essentially the same thing in God’s latest warning:

Perhaps this weather scare that may well be much more than just a scare is God’s revenge for the refusal of the U.S. government to take action on the climate crisis. – Ted Glick

Can you imagine the howling from the left if some conservative evangelical said something like that? Whatever suits their purpose for the present I suppose is the new desperation dialog about climate.

The only way to deal with propagandic pinheads such as this is to counter with real facts, and then whenever his propaganda appears, put those facts right back into the venue wherever it appears through comments, emails, and letters. Clear headed people will understand, but you’ll never reach the science muggles that believe and push this sort of stuff while throwing facts to the wind.

By extension, Johnson and Glick’s claims are essentially that this Category 1 storm with 75MPH winds is somehow unique to American history, the result of “tampering” with “nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution.” And it hasn’t even made landfall yet. I don’t have to call BS on their idiotic claims, because the facts do it for me.

First, a historical review of October landfalling hurricanes. Data from the National Hurricane Center and Stormpulse.

OCTOBER HURRICANES MAKING LANDFALL IN THE USA

2005 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Wilma

175 MPH

2002 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Lili

145 MPH

1999 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Irene

110 MPH

1995 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Opal

150 MPH

1989 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Jerry

85 MPH

1987 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Floyd

75 MPH

1985 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Juan

85 MPH

1968 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Gladys

85 MPH

1966 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Inez

150 MPH

1964 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hilda

150 MPH

Isbell

125 MPH

1954 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hazel

140 MPH

1950 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

King

120 MPH

1949 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #10

130 MPH

1948 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #8

130 MPH

1947 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #9

120 MPH

1946 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #5

130 MPH

1944 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #11

120 MPH

1941 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #5

120 MPH

1924 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #7

120 MPH

1923 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #3

100 MPH

1921 Hurricane Season

Name

Historic Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #6

Tampa Bay

140 MPH

1916 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #13

120 MPH

1913 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Tropical Storm #4

60 MPH

1912 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #5

100 MPH

1910 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #5

150 MPH

1909 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #10

120 MPH

1906 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #8

120 MPH

1904 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #3

80 MPH

1899 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #8

110 MPH

1898 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #7

130 MPH

1894 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #5

120 MPH

1893 Hurricane Season

Name

Historic Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #9

—–

120 MPH

Hurricane #10

Chenier Caminanda

130 MPH

1888 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #7

110 MPH

1887 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #13

85 MPH

1886 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #10

120 MPH

1882 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #6

140 MPH

1880 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #9

80 MPH

1878 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #11

100 MPH

1877 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #4

120 MPH

1876 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #5

120 MPH

1873 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #5

120 MPH

1870 Hurricane Season

Name

Historic Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #6

Twin Key West (I)

120 MPH

Hurricane #9

Twin Key West (II)

100 MPH

1869 Hurricane Season

Name

Historic Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #10

Saxby

100 MPH

1867 Hurricane Season

Name

Historic Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #7

Galveston

100 MPH

1865 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #7

100 MPH

1860 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #6

100 MPH

1853 Hurricane Season

Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #8

100 MPH

1852 Hurricane Season

Name

Historic Name

Max Winds

Hurricane #5

Middle Florida

100 MPH

That’s quite a list. From it you can conclude that strong October hurricanes hit the USA every few years, so Sandy is not in any way unique.

One storm in particular stands out as a parallel to Hurricane Sandy, and that’s Hurricane Hazel in 1954. Brad Johnson is of course too young to have any experience with it (and so am I) but unlike Johnson I pay attention to weather history rather than bloviate gloom and doom at the drop of hat for political purposes.

Hazel was first spotted east of the Windward Islands on October 5. It moved through the islands later that day as a hurricane, then it moved westward over the southern Caribbean Sea through October 8. A slow turn to the north-northeast occurred from October 9-12, with Hazel crossing western Haiti as a hurricane on the 12th. The hurricane turned northward and crossed the southeastern Bahamas on the 13th, followed by a northwestward turn on the 14th. Hazel turned north and accelerated on October 15, making landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near the North Carolina-South Carolina border. Subsequent rapid motion over the next 12 hours took the storm from the coast across the eastern United States into southeastern Canada as it became extratropical.

High winds occurred over large portions of the eastern United States. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina reported a peak wind gust of 106 mph, and winds were estimated at 130 to 150 mph along the coast between Myrtle Beach and Cape Fear, North Carolina. Washington, DC reported 78 mph sustained winds, and peak gusts of over 90 mph occurred as far northward as inland New York state. A storm surge of up to 18 ft inundated portions of the North Carolina coast. Heavy rains of up to 11 inches occurred as far northward as Toronto, Canada resulting in severe flooding.

Hazel was responsible for 95 deaths and $281 million in damage in the United States, 100 deaths and $100 million in damage in Canada, and an estimated 400 to 1000 deaths in Haiti.

The already remarkable damage Hazel inflicted was exacerbated by the timing at which the hurricane struck. Landfall occurred during the full moon of October – the highest lunar tide of the year. A storm surge in excess of 15 feet inundated southeastern North Carolina from Southport to Topsail Beach, with an astounding 18-foot surge reported at high tide at Calabash and on the island of Holden Beach. Incredibly, all but 12 of the 300 cottages in Holden Beach were destroyed. The surge also leveled many of shrimp houses that lined the riverfront, and put coastal Brunswick and New Hanover counties under water, effectively wiping out the beaches. The surge even reopened Mary’s Inlet, which had been artificially closed during the summer of 1955 by the Army Corps of Engineers.

Hazel’s Impact Felt Across the Eastern Seaboard and Southern Canada
A total of 15,000 homes or buildings were destroyed throughout the state, including some 39,000 damaged structures. Thousands of trees were downed by the combination of tropical-rain soaked ground and ferocious winds. 30 of North Carolina’s 100 counties sustained major damage. Based on reports from residents in the capital city of Raleigh, an average of two or three trees fell per city block, many on homes, automobiles, and power lines. In all, an estimated $136 million in damage occurred in North Carolina as a result of the mighty hurricane. Damage reached to nearly $281 million when the dollar damage in NC was combined with damage estimates from the rest of the United States. The storm went on to produce another $100 million in damage in Canada, as it accelerated northward and became extratropical. Most of the damage there resulted from heavy rain, nearly a foot in less than twenty four hours, associated with the remnants of Hazel. When all was said and done, the death toll included: 400-1000 in Haiti, 6 in the Bahamas, 95 in the US (including 19 deaths and 200 injured in North Carolina alone), and 100 more in Canada.

Hurricane Hazel produced the largest swath of hurricane force winds this century over Virginia and North Carolina. As active as the 1954 hurricane season was for North Carolinians, it was followed by an equally active 1955 hurricane season, when three more storms struck the state. However, none of those could match the fury of the historic Hurricane Hazel.

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Sound familiar? Just watch and read the news reports warning of the storm surge from Sandy, and you’ll see its just a repeat performance of lunar timing coincidence. Here’s one from NBC:

Heaven and Earth may be aligning to turn Hurricane Sandy into a real monster, just in time for Halloween.

Forecasters expect Sandy to make landfall along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States on Monday or Tuesday. It may merge with a separate tempest hitting the region at about that time, creating an immensely powerful “Frankenstorm” whose effects could be magnified by the full moon.

When the moon waxes to its full phase Monday afternoon, high tides along the Eastern Seaboard will rise about 20 percent higher than normal, even without the help of Sandy’s storm surge, said Joe Rao, a meteorologist for News 12 in Westchester, N.Y. (Storm surges occur when a hurricane’s winds push the water surface above normal levels.)

Hazel had the same storm surge lunar magnifier, but the MSM is treating it as if this is something new and unique and there’s no mention of Hurricane Hazel in the NBC story.

And then there’s the New England Hurricane of 1938: (h/t to John Coleman)

The 1938 Hurricane, by the Works Project Administration – During this storm, Frank Schubert, last keeper of Coney Island Light, was aboard the buoy tender ship Tulip, which was thrown aground on top of some train tracks by the storm. Even Supermandia recognizes what an event that was.

Here’s the weather map for it from the US Weather Bureau:

All that happened before Roger Revelle took his first CO2 measurement and published a paper that started it all. Nothing has been seen like Hurricane Hazel since.

Let’s look at CO2 and hurricanes

Why? Because if paid political shills like Brad Johnson are to be believed, CO2 increases in Earth’s atmosphere are the cause of all this “frankenweather” happening now.

Long term U.S. data on hurricane fatalities show that from 1900–09 to the 2009–10, hurricane deaths and death rates declined by 82% and 95%, respectively (see Figure 2).These estimates use data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) provided in Blake et al. (2007) which has 1,525 deaths for 2005, the year of Katrina.

[Note that this month, the NHC, via Blake et al. (2011), put out a new report which has 1,225 deaths for 2005, while NWS’s Weather Fatalities website uses 1,016 for that year. I plan to keep on using the older NHC/Blake et al. estimate, pending consultation with Dr. Blake. I have contacted him, but to no one’s surprise, least of all mine, he has much more important things to do right now.]

To any thinking person reading the above, clearly there’s no connection between Hurricane Sandy, atmospheric CO2 levels, or payback from God. It’s the worst example of climate propaganda since An Inconvenient Truth.

Don’t believe political shills like Brad Johnson as he doesn’t rely on facts, but rather, fear. That makes him and those like him that say Hurricane Sandy is some sort of “wrath” for human behavior he and his buddies don’t like not only unreliable and idiotic in their approach, but malfeasant to boot.

I think this Frankenstorm stuff is all an election ploy. They’re trying to remind voters that the sky is about to fall and that only The One can reverse the rise of the oceans etc. Orwell would not have dared to write such things into “1984”. When Frankenstorm declines to follow the political script and freewheels off into the north atlantic, then it will be forgotten amongst the urgings that we have always been at war with Eastasia.

if ‘god’ had any interest in hurricanes one might think he’d spend his time ensuring they didn’t hurt his little ant farm rather than using them to punish those who don’t vote for the political party he favours.

Due to massive research into weather and climate we at NASA have found glaring errors in past storm reporting. Due to this we have released a new, better, shiner, MORE AWESOMER data set based on proper adjustments to past data that slipped through the cracks.

As such due to this new data set and computer models we can firmly say that the storm now known as Sandy is unprecedented in history and clearly the result of global warming.

“If the candidates won’t listen [Johnson’s plan is the only plan] to the voters demanding they break their climate silence [implicit assumption of all voters assumed to vote in the majority for the Johnson plan], maybe they will listen to Mother Nature’s October Surprise [mysticism]. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people [Wow! A strange reference to public choice theory, politicos are politicos….what insight!]. But what their role [Johnson’s defined role] as national leaders demands [what Johnson’s plan demands] that they also do [additional requirements of the master plan] is explain [agree with the master plan] that Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm [apparently Dr. Frankenstein is involved], a monster [the storm now takes on human characteristics as changing gears to now argue via verbal virtuosity] created by man [you did it] tampering with nature [you did it and its your fault and how dare you] with nature [nature according to Johnson] with oil, coal, and gas pollution [Ah, shock and surprise, a villain!].”

These kinds of statements similar to Brad Johnson’s is what caused me to begin to question Global Warming / Climate Change, when I used to believe in it. Researching the topic for myself finally killed any belief in it I once had.

Well, the wheels are coming off the ‘cover-up bus’ (ref the CIA press conference today re: Gen. Petraeus’ statement et al) obscuring newly-discovered ‘events’ that took place last month at the Libyan Consulate … SOMETHING NEW is needed in the ‘press’ to steal Oxygen away from that developing story with a NATIONAL ELECTION a couple weeks out …

Nice job with that list of October hurricanes which demonstrates beyond all doubt that they are all climate liars using the word “unprecedented” for emotional, non-logical, non-scientific purposes. Using the historical facts to destroy their mindless arguments is something they hate. It is why they despise Goddard’s site.

Hopefully some of our moderate stalwarts who still insist we are in a gentlemanly scientific debate will come to their senses after listening to the insanity of the last few days from McKibben, Mann, Romm, Glick and this new eco-tard Brad Johnson.

These charlatans are well-represented throughout history. Using the weather or other current event like plague, earthquake, or tsunami, inevitably is described as punishment from God, to highlight their personal agenda.

There is no science here, just the radical leftist eco-zealot agenda. People should stop referring top them as Scientists, doctors, professors or whatever. They do not deserve any respect. They are fellow travelers wearing the colors red and green. They are the enemy. Most importantly, they are by definition the mortal enemy of your grandkids and later descendants, who if they have their way, will never even be born.

“I gave three very clear directives. Number one, make sure that we are securing our personnel and doing whatever we need to. Number two, we’re going to investigate exactly what happened to make sure it doesn’t happen again. Number three, find out who did this so we can bring them to justice.”

Then Bing West, a former Assistant Secretary of Defense got on foxnews and said

“If that actually happened the way President Obama said it happened, there’s a paper trail and I think people reasonably enough can say, “Can we see the order?”

Next people will be demanding to see his birth cert, college records, etc.

24 Oct: PR Web: Population Control and Fresh Water Resources Should Be Top Global Priorities Says Former NASA Climatologist
Economic Growth, and Human Survival Depend on Water and Population Control.
Special Report by DeWayne Cecil, PhD, on Sharon Kleyne Hour Radio Talk Show
That was the conclusion of DeWayne Cecil, PhD, in an interview on the Sharon Kleyne Hour Power of Water radio show, October 15, 2012.
Dr. Cecil was a researcher for NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and currently works for the National Climatic Data Center in Ashville, North Carolina…
According to Dr. Cecil, Earth’s climate has definitely evolved in the last 50 years but if you examine the record of glacial ice cores, lake sediments and ancient tree rings, weather pattern are naturally cyclical. How much of the current global drying and warming is human caused, and whether it is cyclical or permanent, remains be determined.
“The study of weather and climate is not just about whether to wear a coat,” says Dr. Cecil. “It’s about our survival as a species.” According to Dr. Cecil, Earth can only sustain a half-billion people in a “Western” consumption oriented lifestyle whereas Earth’s population recently passed seven billion. According to Dr. Cecil, there are only enough resources on Earth to sustain about a half-billion people in the current “Western” lifestyle…
Sharon asked about the difference between “climate” and “weather.” According to Dr. Cecil, “climate” is “weather” averaged out over a long period. In other words, “climate is what you expect and weather is what you get.”
“We can predict weather fairly accurately to about ten days in advance,” says Dr. Cecil, “but our ability predict weather over two to 20 years is less accurate…http://www.prweb.com/releases/2012/10/prweb10050733.htm

You can say the same thing about these so called scientists messing around with Geo Engineering who are the Humans Inducing Climate Change. Perhaps these are the people whom regulations need to be enforced upon. Especially since it seems these are the same people pushing this agenda;

Has the Time Come to Try Geoengineering?
“So is it time to consider something a little more radical? Specifically, the family of ideas for restraining climate change captured under the rubric of geoengineering? Or, as the U.K.’s Royal Society puts it: the deliberate, large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment. As the guest editors of a special issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A note: “Geoengineering is no longer the realm of science fiction.””http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/08/15/has-the-time-come-to-try-geoengineering/

Ken Caldeira discussing his article in the September 2012 issue of Scientific American.

The Great Climate Experiment: How far can we push the planet? Ken Caldeira [Scientific American]

“If the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 (a Category 4 storm) were to have made landfall in the
same spot in 2005, it would be the costliest hurricane on record, amounting $140-157 billion (in
2005 dollars) in damages. It would be nearly twice as destructive as Hurricane Katrina. If the
Galveston Hurricanes of 1900 and 1915 (both Category 4) were to have made landfall in 2005,
they would be the third and fourth most destructive hurricanes, resulting in damages of $72-78
billion and $57-62 billion (in 2005 dollars), respectively. The fifth costliest hurricane under
2005 normalization would be Andrew (1992), creating $54-58 billion (in 2005 dollars) in damages.”

In the latest Gallup poll the economy, unemployment, the deficit, dissatisfaction with government and healthcare are the top issues which concern voters. Climate does not even come into the list of the13 issues which most concern voters in this presidential election. Climate is no longer a political issue for most people, no matter how many lies are spun about it.http://www.gallup.com/poll/158267/economy-dominant-issue-americans-election-nears.aspx

If the cause is so just and serious, then we don’t need laws trying to manipulate a few 10/1000 th’s of our atmosphere to tell us how to act. Do the vast majority of us not commit murder because of some statute? I think not. Most of us know better.

These people who think that passing laws make anything better are deluded. Do these folk really think they can talk us into abandoning ourfarms, cars, our homes and the comforts of the day for that our great, great grandkids might be inconvienienced?

And what is sustainable? If you take this logic to the fullest, we should still be living in caves. Never improving our lot, as it is unsustainable.

While the Charleston Hurricane on October 13 is the most impressive, (Hazel-like track, 120 mph winds,) storm number 11, which hit the Delmarva Peninsula on October 23 with 60 mph winds, is interesting because it cut west like Sandy is expected to do.

Do these fantasy minded people really believe that if we stop using fossil fuels we will live in a Garden of Eden? Does this idiot know hurricanes are known to have come up the coast since the early explorers of the 16th century?

But really, this guy says it all. AGW is the new religion. He even mentions that it’s God’s punishment. If you want more links of natural disasters to the wrath of God, pick up a bible.

I have tried to explain the data about falling storm frequency with time?rising atmospheric CO2 content to people and I get the glazed expression. I am not believed. Whatever you tell these people will not make a difference. This is why Obama may get back for a second more damaging term. I feel sorry for America.

“Forecast the facts”.. whatever names do the extremists come up with? Hw can one forcast a “fact”? It’s either a forecast of something that may happen, or it is a fact that has already happened. But these guys love playing the almighty. Hubris is their great malady which is making them more irrlevant as times goes by.

Hazel made a strong impression me. I was a 100 miles inland. This 5-year old could not comprehend how anything could be so powerful. If Sandy moves inland up north, many parents are now going to have to try to explain hurricanes to small children.

Weepy Bill is getting into the act, saying ““Frankenstorms” like Sandy are stitched together from some spooky combination of the natural and the unnatural.”
I think we can expect a spooktacular amount of spittle and drool from Warmists on this, especially if damages amount to the $1billion range, as some are saying.

Lest you think this sort of logic affliction is unique to Brad Johnson, I’ll point out that his cheering section over at Grist says essentially the same thing in God’s latest warning:

Perhaps this weather scare that may well be much more than just a scare is God’s revenge for the refusal of the U.S. government to take action on the climate crisis. – Ted Glick

Some people in the human race do not appear to have advanced much since the middle ages:

Seven weeks after Easter in A.D. 1315, sheets of rain spread across a sodden Europe, turning freshly plowed fields into lakes and quagmires. The deluge continued through June and July, and then August and September. Hay lay flat in the fields; wheat and barley rotted unharvested. The anonymous author of the Chronicle of Malmesbury wondered if divine vengeance had come upon the land: “Therefore is the anger of the Lord kindled against his people, and he hath stretched out his hand against them, and hath smitten them.”

In the middle ages they had witch finders to find witches and burn them to prevent crop failures – nowadays we have the EPA and climatologists – but its the same underlying story. Something has gone wrong so some humans are to blame and we are being punished for it – find the guilty humans. One wonders climatologists are aware that they are just demonstrating atavistic tendencies only one step away from giving sacrifices to the gods?

Gamecock~ You have a (very) few years on me- my apologies ;)
Right now, Sandy is aimed right at the heart of Lake Ontario. That puts us in the Niagara Peninsula, right in the Northeast winds. Hoping it goes elsewhere, are we are in low-lying country on the shores of Lake Erie.

Hazel made a strong impression me. I was a 100 miles inland. This 5-year old could not comprehend how anything could be so powerful. If Sandy moves inland up north, many parents are now going to have to try to explain hurricanes to small children.

In another dozen years or so Penn State may see increased interest for their Meteorology program. :-)

If god doesn’t kill you with Frankenstorm Sandy this mean that god must be OK with your use of oil, coal, and gas.

So everyone take note. If the Frankenstorm doesn’t kill you, this is a sign from heaven that it is OK for you to use electricity, heat you homes, buy things made of plastic, drive your kids to school on paved roads and live and work in buildings made of concrete and steel.

Now, if you do happen to buy the farm during the storm, you can take comfort in the sure knowledge that god wasn’t happy that you were polluting the planet and took steps to get rid of you. Your sacrifice was necessary so that the rest of us could live. While the rest of us on the other hand can take comfort in the sure knowledge that god is still OK with us.

I remember Hurricane Hazel. I was six at the time. We were then living temporarily in Boston where my father was interning. It was projected to hit Boston, but diverted and hit Toronto, where we lived. In Boston, it was merely heavy winds and rains ( I still somewhat remember walking home from school.)

It transformed Toronto’s conservation practices as there was huge (unprecedented) flooding, even washing away some houses built in the floodplain of the usually small Humber River. Nothing similar has subsequently hit Toronto in my lifetime. Retrospective analyses of Hazel suggest elements very similar to the present storm. It also appears to have involved a coalescence of a tropical storm and an Arctic front

Brad Johnson or Ted Glick should find better things to say and do! Any attribution of specific weather events to AGW is shaky science. Any attribution of specific weather events to God is not science at all. While it is natural for people on any side of any argument to make emotional appeals, this often backfires in scientific settings.

However, the rebuttal also has some problems.

“By extension, Johnson and Glick’s claims are essentially that this Category 1 storm with 75MPH winds is somehow unique to American history, the result of “tampering” with “nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution.” And it hasn’t even made landfall yet. I don’t have to call BS on their idiotic claims, because the facts do it for me.”

Any time you attack an “extension” of someone’s argument, you are, by definition, attacking a strawman! Stick to rebutting what they said, not what you wish they said.. Heck Ted even says “It is absolutely true that strong storms are not anything new” in the article you quote. So clearly he does not believe what you attribute to him!

I lived on Topsail Island in 1954. We left before it got too bad and never went back.
Big big blow with lots and lots of rain. Dad had come back from Korea and was at Camp LeJune at the time. He had just been released from active duty so there was no reason to stay. We literally headed for the hills.

Grammar quibble: I realize that this material is not your original, but the sentence “The surge even reopened Mary’s Inlet, which had been artificially closed during the summer of 1955…” doesn’t make sense. Can’t speak in the past perfect tense of 1955 events, when discussing a 1954 storm. This source says “The storm surge re-opened Mary’s Inlet, which had been recently closed by the Army Corps of Engineers.”

Global trends in hurricanes are discussed in Weinkle et al., “Historical Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls”, non-paywalled version here. Its abstract says “The analysis does not indicate significant long-period global or individual basin trends in the frequency or intensity of landfalling TCs of minor or major hurricane strength.”

Brad Johnson’s article is another example why it is important that the public not be aware of history. The revisionists have to discredit anyone who knows through actual research that claims like “Frankenstorm” are clearly false and have no basis in reality.

“To any thinking person reading the above” is the most important part of the conclusion IMO.

Brad Johnston and other members of “the cause” rely on people accepting blindly what they are told.

Even the name “Forecast the facts” is unscientific as it has the cart before the horse.

The scare focus is on the wrong system. The hurricane isn’t the issue. It is why it would follow the predicted path. What pressure systems are working together that would push this thing inland at New York versus the usual turn out to sea? If people want to assign this landfall event to fossil fuels, they will have to look at these other pressure systems that have been predicted to push/pull this thing towards land. The huricane itself is a standard yawner.

Once the media focus is placed on the right path directors in this event, we can all actually learn something. But what fun is there in focusing the camera lens on pressure systems to the right and left of the path that would cause this thing to hit landfall? The eye of the hurricane makes a much more gripping TV screen shot and hands professional weirdos their requested AGW photo op.

Eternal Father, strong to save,
Whose arm hath bound the restless wave,
Who bidd’st the mighty ocean deep
Its own appointed limits keep;
Oh, hear us when we cry to Thee,
For those in peril on the sea!

O Christ! Whose voice the waters heard
And hushed their raging at Thy word,
Who walkedst on the foaming deep,
And calm amidst its rage didst sleep;
Oh, hear us when we cry to Thee,
For those in peril on the sea!

Damn those Democrats for organising a storm for the election. It’ll remind everyone just how incompetent the last Republican president was! Is there nothing these democracy hating communists won’t stoop to?

I was in my early teens when Hazel struck. We were driving from Ontario to New Brunswick through New England. I can remember many trees having been blown down and being cut up with chain saws (I still remember the scream of their 2-stroke engines) and the lack of electricity. Gasoline pumps were made operative by gasoline engines driving the internal mechanism by a V-belt, and the restaurant where we ate (cold food, of course) was illuminated by huge candles from a nearby church.

Like the three little pigs, here in the windy UK we learned to make our houses of bricks instead of sticks. Perhaps Obama would like to lecture the US on that thorny little subject instead of claiming trace gasses.

History is full of people who claim to be speaking for God who don’t have His “phone number” and refuse to answer when He calls. And it is full of people who do things in the name of God without first finding out what it is God wants done. And it is full of people blaming God for things He’s got nothing to do with.
AlFrankenstorm is a case in point. I feel sad for Brad.

PS If Brad says the storm is God’s doing, is he going to stop blaming Man for Climate Change?

“lf, as a jobs creation mechanism, there is an incentive for PV solar installations, I do think demand could soar and create large numbers of jobs simultaneously.
“However, lf I were going to invest on that thesis, l might look at inverter manufacturers like Xantrex rather than bet on the PV solar anufacturers. All in all in the solar field, l think it is extremely easy to pick losers and l really do not know how to pick winners.”

Obviously most of the folks that have been trying to select new technologies to generate new products haven’t spend much time doing either activity. A refresher on the subject seems in order-

“Managing innovation: an uncertainty reduction process” by Alan W. Pearson. His uncertainty map, is published on slide 8 in this power point presentation:

Wow, I had no idea so many hurricanes hit New England like that. Thanks for the information. Most people are under the impression that those hit the Gulf States and stuff like that. Thanks for the clarification.

I am not a believer in any faith of any kind, but a thinking person has to entertain the possibility of “intelligent design” as there is no solid evidence one way or the other. This still leaves this on the field of possibility, no?

David Ball, you confuse me! You agree with Joel’s statement, then claim you fixed it!

Joel said

Johnson’s statement is also certainly beyond what the current science can support.

You reply:

Alarmist’s statements are also certainly beyond what the current science can support.

Alarmism is “excessive or exaggerated alarm about a real or imagined threat e.g. the increases in deaths from infectious disease.”[wikipedia]. If you are agreeing that Johnson is being an alarmist by making an excessive or exaggerate claim, then you are agreeing with Joel and not fixing anything. (And if you are making a general statement, then you are simply restating the definition, and not “fixing” anything, either!)

Brad Johnson’s article is another example why it is important that the public not be aware of history.

Ummm … people familiar with history will know that the incident you allude to is Lake Superior (the wreck of the Edmond Fitzgerald), not the Atlantic coast. And it was not a huge storm, but a pretty typical November storm (40–58 mph winds were forecast). People familiar with history will know this reference is completely misleading!

I am no fan of what Brad Johnson wrote, but fighting poor information with other poor information is hardly an improvement!

Except for the small bit about how Earth and we got here, that statement seems to make good sense and many readers would find themselves in agreement with much of it. I will only say that to demand a person extricate the self from one’s family and societal swamp before paying any heed to the other characteristics possessed is equivalent to rejecting the entire human race. Regarding the thus dismissed phrases, I have no compelling replacements or alternatives to suggest – and don’t care. Thus, I move on.

I would love to follow Brad Johnson around driving in his car, and then when he goes to fill up the tank I would remind him of what he wrote, and film his reaction. You know he uses electricity and heats/cools his house and all, what a hypocrite he is!

I don’t know how many of you follow Dr. Ryan Maue on Twitter but he has stated this morning that:
“coastal effects look forecast to be worse than 1938 according to GFS — Long Island extreme winds will be 80 – 100 kts”

He also states that 12Z NAM shows snowfall for WVA mountains at around 3 ft max.

Is there an eleventh commandment in Brad Johnson’s Bible: “Thou shalt not emit CO2”? I hope Brad Johnson enjoys being in the same company as the people below. They, too, claimed to know the will of God, but they didn’t claim to be scientists.

Pastor John Hagee: “And I believe that the Hurricane Katrina was, in fact, the judgment of God against the city of New Orleans.”

Steve Lefemine, an antiabortion activist in Columbia, S.C., was looking at a full-color satellite map of Hurricane Katrina when something in the swirls jumped out at him: the image of an 8-week-old fetus. “In my belief, God judged New Orleans for the sin of shedding innocent blood through abortion,” said Lefemine.

What gives? Sandy is going to be Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane at the most so why the fuss? Are the crazy CAGW freaks out because there’s going to be a full moon on Halloween? I can just imagine hearing those idiots baying at the moon!

I think it would be swell if Frankenstorm 2.0 packed as much punch as Frankenstorm 1.0 that struck the North East and Long Island on September 21, 1938.

We should Re-Brand the description of this storm ourselves “Frankenstorm 2.0”, in light of our newly discovered 1938 Hurricane information.

I think these people pointing the finger at and blaming the wrong men, the general public, for Human Induced Climate Change, should be pointing the finger at themselves, and we should be pointing our fingers at them, for the Geo Engineering experiments they have been conducting on us.

Ken Caldeira discussing his article in the September 2012 issue of Scientific American.

The Great Climate Experiment: How far can we push the planet? Ken Caldeira [Scientific American]

David Ball says:
October 27, 2012 at 11:20 am
Trying to get out the door for children’s Halloween party. Sorry for the confusion.
==================================================================
Did any of your kids dress up as a CO2 molecule? 8-)

Anthony, as a weatherman can you comment on the front that is progressing across to the Eastern seaboard and its effect on this storm? From what I have seen in the past of these fronts pushing Hurricanes out to sea, how in the hell is this storm going to make a 90 degree turn toward land on Monday?

REPLY: Joel did a pretty good job in a comment below, I’ve been away from the computer – Anthony

Huh? You’re just as much of a shill for the other side. so it’s like the pot calling the kettle black, and actually, you’re even worse for downplaying a potentially dangerous storm that’s already proven deadly. Plus, you’re showing your true nature in vitriolic ad hominem attack disguised as some sort of a science-based screed.

REPLY: You might try reading it and understanding it, rather than simply screeching about it. Otherwise, you become part of the problem – Anthony

The kids ask, if a flap of a wing can cause a tornado far away can’t a correct flap of a wing also destroy a hurricane? Ah, the beauty of a child’s insight. So I told them, God’s speed to our winged warriors, do battle against Brad Johnson’s ‘Frankenstorm’, but caution, for it must be the correct wing and the correct flap, the wrong one just might feed to its power!

(should take at least a few years for them to properly digest that thought)☺

“Perhaps this weather scare that may well be much more than just a scare is God’s revenge for the refusal of the U.S. government to take action on the climate crisis. – Ted Glick”

Oh noes, there must be someone out there who has spoken directly to God and He has given His answer.
There are so many of the sane, wise and sage among our members of the cloth.
Let’s ask Pat Robertson, he’ll know. I heard God told him to run for president. Maybe they’re still talking.

The proper costume requires three kids, two have to be twins. And those can’t be too small or all of them might be mistaken for water.

Primary benefit is the kids will stay together as a group, as long as it’s dark out and they don’t get wet. The other great benefit is the accompanying adult can dress up as a thermometer, then the kids will always be following the adult.

This storm appears to be similar to the 1991 “Perfect Storm”. It was never given a name, but was a category 1 hurricane combined with a nor’easter. A buoy off Nova Scotia recorded 100′ waves. It was primarily a coastal storm, whereas the current storm looks like it will go well inland. Exactly the same time of year. So, more evidence that it is not unprecedented.

“But what their role as national leaders demands that they also do is explain that Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution.”

Can anybody be more deluded then this?

I’ll get some oil, coal and gas and create a hurricane in my back garden shall I?

It’s a hurricane and no different from any others, can’t be distinguished between any others and occurs often during history. A desperate agenda is still in full flow with the Frakenstorm nonsense and it is quite literally embarrassing. It is a cat 1 hurricane and for a time in between was downgraded to a tropical storm. Thanks for letting the public know what a load of rubbish alarmist global warming views are.

Damn those Democrats for organising a storm for the election. It’ll remind everyone just how incompetent the last Republican president was! Is there nothing these democracy hating communists won’t stoop to?
———————————————————

LOL ! Commie John ;) Nice to see you here … this storm is clearly God’s punishment of those filthy democrats anticipating voting for continued malfeasance of its leadership. Brad Johnson clearly implies this.

Great coincidental internet moment: I clicked onto an article about Sandy in the WaPo, and in the sidebar was a chart titles: “Learn About Homicides in Your Neighborhood”. Great how everyone gears up for the fake-as-f***-all pseudo tragedies, because they know they can get air time, while almost everyone can ignore the real and real-time tragedies that happening every day, because murders (especially ghetto murders) are so quotidian.

““It’s about our survival as a species.”I don’t get it. If we’re so destructive, why would anyone wish for our continued existence? Let me guess, we just need more “education”, also now as “thought alignment”: “If you don’t think like me, I simply haven’t invented the right ‘fact’ to convince you. Here, let’s try again. Don’t worry, I won’t be turning up the amperage on the shock-o-matic just yet.”

Anthony, as a weatherman can you comment on the front that is progressing across to the Eastern seaboard and its effect on this storm? From what I have seen in the past of these fronts pushing Hurricanes out to sea, how in the hell is this storm going to make a 90 degree turn toward land on Monday?

From what I understand, the problem is that the front / trough is not making all that much forward progress (it is stalled out just east of us here in Western NY) because of significant blocking in the atmosphere. It is this blocking and the trough in the Eastern U.S. that are expected to force Sandy to hook back toward the coast. You can see some discussion of it in the latest (as of 11pm EDT) forecast discussion here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al18/al182012.discus.023.shtml?

“Seele says: October 26, 2012 at 9:47 pm
May I offer my condraculations to Brad Johnson on his coining of the novel term “Frankenstorm”.”

I love the wordplay to identify the bloodsucker.

I lived in SE Pennsylvania when Hazel hit. As a rather stupid wee tot, I loved the way the wind looked through the windows; horizontal rain, leaves, things. So I opened the door and went out. My parents caught me a few houses down. I wasn’t light enough to go fully wind borne, but I sure couldn’t resist it.

Franky baby storm even as it sits in the Atlantic is no Hazel. And that’s a comparison to a Hazel after it’d already crawled over two states.

Doctor Gray has been warning East Coasters for decades that they’re building where storms visit. Maybe this will be a wake-up call for those folks who think tidal estuaries are great places for condos and beach rentals. If TS (I don’t think hurricane is the correct descriptor anymore) Sandy was a cat 4 like Hazel, then it’d be a true lesson in coastal construction disaster.

Why do I doubt Sandy’s hurricane status? That storm is looking downright disorganized now with center circulation not very clear. Still a massive and dangerous storm with plenty of precipitation. That alone may make it very similar to Hazel. Expect lots of flooding if those clouds go stationary and drain.

What I am puzzled about is what will make this storm system do a sharp left turn? I have looked through a lot of historical tracks and I haven’t found one that will do anything beyond a slow creep NNE or NE. There is obviously a good reason for this track prediction . . http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html

“One storm in particular stands out as a parallel to Hurricane Sandy, and that’s Hurricane Hazel in 1954. Brad Johnson is of course too young to have any experience with it (and so am I) but unlike Johnson I pay attention to weather history rather than bloviate gloom and doom at the drop of hat for political purposes.”

I wasn’t. As a 7 year old, I huddled with my parents in the dark – power went out, early, in a then small city east of Toronto as the wind and rain roared around and over us. I still VIVIDLY remember trying to see out my bedroom window into the backyard darkness at the very tip of one of my neighbour’s 70 foot Lombardy poplars brushing up and down on my bedroom window. Five feet taller and it would have been in my bedroom. Four of five of these polars toppled that night, and the fifth was too root-weakened to leave up. A couple of days later, my parents and I took a bit of a drive up the Holland Marsh area north of Toronto to see the massive pumps trying get water off the land. If you’ve never lived through a storm of that ferocity, you have no idea….

What I am puzzled about is what will make this storm system do a sharp left turn? I have looked through a lot of historical tracks and I haven’t found one that will do anything beyond a slow creep NNE or NE. There is obviously a good reason for this track prediction . . http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html

but what is it?

There’s an “anomalous” (NHC’s word – must be AGW/ Bush’s/Mitt’s/Ann Coulter’s fault), blocking high sitting up over the Canadian Maritimes that’s preventing Sandy from going straight up the coast. There is also a well defined high pressure ridge N-S over the US midwest behind the low pressure trough, also N-S, over the east-central US, that is effectively channelling the storm into the trough. The weather systems in the trough have nowhere to go because of the highs and they and Sandy will eventually mash together over the US Northeast and southeastern Canada.

Why do I doubt Sandy’s hurricane status? That storm is looking downright disorganized now with center circulation not very clear. Still a massive and dangerous storm with plenty of precipitation. That alone may make it very similar to Hazel. Expect lots of flooding if those clouds go stationary and drain.

Sandy actually hasn’t been a hurricane for the last 36 hours, based on measurable wind strength. However, the storm is so large, and there remains a strong low pressure core, so the decision was taken that the probability that hurricane force winds do likely exist in the storm, and also that there was a good possiblilty that intensification would occur as an extra-tropical cyclone. Its hung on the Saffir-Simpson boundary for the last 36 hours, and hunter aircraft have not had flight radials over some areas that appear to be stronger. The concern is not the intensity per se, its the size of the wind field and overall potential. IOW – its significant because, even though its intensity is borderline, its sheer size makes the aggregate threat just as serious. Remains to be seen if it holds together, but its now expected to break down fairly quickly once it makes landfall. Won’t help the coast though.

Seems that BAMD might end up to be the track that is followed. CLP5 and all of the BAM tracks are going to keep it far offshore. Keep you eyes on the northward mid-Atlantic blocking high and low coupled with the jet stream. If they keep ticking eastward it may never make landfall at all. Just a hunch right now, but we’ll see.

One of our neighbours had a barn he wanted to tear down and, hearing that hurricane Hazel was on the way, cut a huge hole in the side with a chainsaw. It was reduced to a pile of firewood in an instant!

I only remember the wind and the broken trees. The eye went directly over our home in Pickering Ontario.

The concern is not the intensity per se, its the size of the wind field and overall potential.

Yeah…I think one indication that it is not your average borderline-Category1 storm is that its central pressure is quite low for such a storm. This is an indication that there will be a large baroclinic wind field associated with the storm even if the strongest winds aren’t that impressive. Another particular issue is that it is arriving around the full moon, which means the high tides will already be higher than average, adding to the tidal flood issue. Still another, at least here in the eastern Great Lakes region, that the Buffalo forecast office has been discussing is the fact that the winds will be out of the north to northeast direction, which is an unusual direction for us to get winds of such magnitude (as our strongest winds are usually out of the west and southwest). It tends to take less strong winds to fell trees when the trees haven’t experienced such winds from this direction (and thus have not been felled by previous storms).

Huh? You’re just as much of a shill for the other side. so it’s like the pot calling the kettle black, and actually, you’re even worse for downplaying a potentially dangerous storm that’s already proven deadly. Plus, you’re showing your true nature in vitriolic ad hominem attack disguised as some sort of a science-based screed.
—————–
I must have missed something.
What are you even bitching about ?
Care to expand your comment to include, anything, other than vitriol (to borrow a term).

…
Still another, at least here in the eastern Great Lakes region, that the Buffalo forecast office has been discussing is the fact that the winds will be out of the north to northeast direction, which is an unusual direction for us to get winds of such magnitude (as our strongest winds are usually out of the west and southwest).
..
Actually, no, for the lower Great lakes basin. The prevailing wind sector is WSW to ENE. The WNW to N quadrant is most frequently the strongest blows – the back side of passing lows with cold frontal boundary pushing on the low’s back door. What makes the south and WSW winds so strong is that they are usually associated with the warm sector of lows and have a large warm moisture content, both from what is brought up from the gulf via the Mississippi heat pump and what is carried over the fetch of Lake Erie. What Great Lakes sailors call “heavy air” (and it is too – 30 knots of moisture laden sw summer blow will lay a surprisingly big sailboat over. I’ve been forced into many a round up trying to point too high in a blow and refusing to bear off…:)

Based on current model data for Buffalo, the strongest wind will be Monday night at midnight, just ahead of the max pressure low, pegged for about 5am Tuesday and it will almost due south, veering to the SW by sunrise and westerly by noon. You can see the NAM 84 hour profile for next week for KBUF here. line curves red for temp, blue for windchill, upper green for dew point, white surface pressure and lower green/white, integrated total precip.

I don’t really understand your point, which seems to be a mixture of confirming my statements (that the strongest winds tend to be from the W thru SW) and saying things that are wrong (like that the winds are expected to be from the S or SW during this event. Here is the relevant part of this early afternoon forecast discussion from the Buffalo NWS office:

UNLIKE MOST HIGH WINDS EVENTS…WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST…WHICH WILL GENERALLY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURES. SINCE STRONG WINDS TYPICALLY ARE FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST…TYPICALLY PROTECTED
LOCATIONS MAY BE MORE VULNERABLE.

Paul, And here is the relevant quote from the latest Buffalo forecast discussion:

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION. STRONG WINDS FROM
THE NORTH ARE VERY RARE. TREES IN THIS AREA GROW ROOT STRUCTURE TO
ANCHOR STRONGLY AGAINST THE PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND…AND
ARE MUCH MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM STRONG WINDS OF A DIFFERENT
DIRECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND…EXPECT MORE WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS
EVENT THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-65 MPH RANGE.
THE RECENT AND UPCOMING RAINS HAVE ALSO MADE SOILS SOGGY…WHICH CAN
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE.

I am somewhat puzzled how you imagine us having south to southwest winds when the storm is to the southeast of us and the winds will be counterclockwise around it.

A note of caution on Dr. Indur Goklany’s article, however. Most of the decrease in fatalities from hurricanes is probably due to better forecasting and weather satellites. The fact that we can track the things across the entire Atlantic is a huge help.