Technology forecast

Despite the partisan gridlock in Washington, some tech and telecom stakeholders realized big victories in 2011 with the passage of patent reform and the Federal Communications Commission’s overhaul of an $8 billion phone subsidy called the Universal Service Fund. But other key policy priorities remain unresolved entering 2012, and the question is whether Congress will be able to take action in the face of budget politics and the election cycle.

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POLITICO 44

Spectrum: The supercommittee punted on deficit reduction and that included a plan for freeing up new airwaves for auction to wireless firms and creating a new data communications system for first responders. Now it’s going to be up to federal agencies. Work must be done to relocate federal users and possibly broadcasters from choice airwaves, set up auctions and begin work on the board overseeing the new public safety broadband network.

Outlook: Time will tell if Congress and federal agencies can meet their mandates.

Cybersecurity: A number of high-profile intrusions plagued private companies in 2011, and the federal government also struggled to stave off increasingly complex attacks. But Congress only inched forward with work to bolster the nation’s cyberdefenses or require companies to notify consumers if their data are stolen, and the Senate is aiming to tackle the matter early in the year. Congress enters 2012 with some momentum behind cybersecurity legislation, but differences between parties and chambers need to be resolved.

Outlook: It will be tough, but action is more likely than not.

Copyright: Congress quickened efforts in late 2011 to boost the protection of copyright holders online by cracking down on piracy. New bills in the House and Senate command big Hollywood support but alarm Web companies, many of which are fighting regulations that could hold them responsible for copyright infringement on their networks. The Internet players have congressional allies, but the push to protect American-made content is bipartisan.

Outlook: Expect an expensive lobbying battle.

Five key players to watch

As head of the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, which advises the White House on telecommunications and information policy, Lawrence Strickling is in charge of realizing the president’s vision of repurposing 500 MHz of spectrum under federal use for commercial mobile broadband.

Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R-Calif.) is expected to continue to play a key role in the debates over online privacy and commercial data security as chairwoman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s Subcommittee on Commerce, Manufacturing and Trade.

Mark Weatherford is stepping into a brand-new position as deputy undersecretary for cybersecurity at the Department of Homeland Security as it takes on an elevated role in defending the federal government’s computer networks and other critical infrastructure — transportation, electric, communications and other essential service — against cyberattack.

Following the departure of Mitch Bainwol from the Recording Industry of Association of America this summer, Cary Sherman will lead the recording industry into its next chapter of the online copyright fight in 2012, pushing for passage of anti-online piracy bills in the House and Senate.

Michael Petricone, senior vice president of government affairs at the Consumer Electronics Association, is helping tech giants — such as Google, Yahoo and eBay — fight pending online copyright bills. “These online copyright proposals set the rules that the next generation of entrepreneurs have to live by, and if the rules are overbroad and not finely crafted, then you end up inadvertently killing brilliant new products and services,” Petricone said.