Nottingham-Derby bus war - but for how long?

IF you use the A52 Brian Clough Way between Nottingham and Derby you cannot fail to notice that 12 buses per hour are now travelling this route both ways as the latest bus wars see fledgling YourBus Citylink buses flexing their muscles against the incumbent TrentBarton Red Arrow coaches.

Capitalists may consider this to be a thriving example of the free market driving down prices and offering more choice and will compare it to the battles between Tesco and Asda.

Buses are different, though, as a sound transport policy is vital for the region and whilst vast resources are committed to competition along the A52 there is less in the pot to support marginal commercial services to the likes of Papplewick, Linby and Cropwell Bishop. Cast your mind back two months to the collapse of Premiere Buses and the sudden demands placed upon TrentBarton and Nottingham City Transport to provide replacement services at exceptionally short notice.

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Consider the finances. Each week Red Arrow run almost 500 return trips between Nottingham and Derby covering nearly 16,000 miles. According to DfT statistics, it costs an average of £2.86 per mile to operate a bus in the shire counties of England giving operating costs of around £45,000 per week.

As YourBus mirrors Red Arrow, their mileage costs will be similar, although both operators may be able to reduce them slightly taking advantage of higher running speeds on the A52 than on congested inner-city routes, thereby reducing labour costs per mile.

Now look closely at the number of passengers carried and the fares being charged, remembering that concessionary pass holders generate little more than half the revenue of an adult fare-paying passenger. Very few journeys are generating £45,000 revenue especially on Citylink, starting from a zero customer base.

Citylink's only USP is its "roll on, roll off" wheelchair and buggy facility but intercity bus travel is a different market to inner-city services and low-floor buses are less suited to 60mph running on the A52, with higher maintenance costs ensuing in the long term.

Red Arrow's USP is that TrentBarton offer a network of connecting services in both Derby and Nottingham with through ticketing and strong brand loyalty to a large independent company which maintains a stable network of services. However concessionary pass holders have the unique advantage of being able to use any operator at no additional cost so they may be tempted to board the first bus which arrives at a windswept Parliament Street or QMC bus stop.

From a business perspective the situation is unsustainable and I doubt if current service levels will continue beyond June when the university term ends as students are a significant sector of the market. Red Arrow has grown from two journeys an hour 15 years ago to the current six; further expansion could be in the form of longer or double deck coaches as used on Oxford to London or MegaBus services.

There is room for new entrants in the Nottingham bus market if they are innovative and fill gaps in the network. TrentBarton and Stagecoach are once again pooling resources rather than competing on the Nottingham -Mansfield-Chesterfield "Pronto" services and they have a new bus station to use in Mansfield.

During the summer Nottingham rail station closure there will strong demand for buses to the Lincolnshire coast and Peak District while there are amazingly no direct buses from Nottingham to Grantham or Lincoln; there are also villages within a ten-mile radius of Nottingham which have no direct regular public transport suitable for commuters, shoppers or hospital visits. There is also a pressing need for a 15-minute frequency Nottingham-Derby train with non-stop services taking less than 20 minutes and stopping services taking less than half an hour.

Dr John Disney is senior lecturer at Nottingham Business School with research interests in transport planning and strategy.