Sport Will this be the year a No. 1 seed finally loses to a No. 16?

20:07 14 february 2018

20:07 14 february 2018 Source:
The Comeback

How the West has fallen

A huge program-changing win for the Washington Huskies simultaneously digs an even deeper hole for the West in March. A side effect of UW’s statement upset of Arizona yesterday: The West’s already-bad prospects for a high seed just got worse.Every year, there are 8 sub-regional sites for MBB March Madness, hosting two groups of 4 teams each. Two of those sites are always somewhere in the Western US (defined here as the everything West of the approximately North-South line of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico). This year, San Diego and Boise are the two Western host cities.

Never has a 16 th seed upset a No . 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Experience should help the Jackrabbits, who will be making their second straight NCAA Tournament appearance after losing by five to Maryland as a year ago.

Have we finally arrived at the moment when a No . 16 will at last knock off a No . 1 seed in the NCAA tournament? In that same 1989 NCAA tournament, East Tennessee State would also lose by one to Oklahoma. A year later, Murray State and Popeye Jones would take Michigan State to overtime in

March Madness might be madder than ever. We’re a month away from the most glorious spectacle in sports. If the 2017-18 regular season is any indicator, we could have a tumultuous NCAA Tournament.

This past weekend, the NCAA recently released the current top 16 overall seeds. The four preliminary No. 1s are Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Purdue, with Virginia as the top overall seed. The other teams in contention are No. 2 seeds Auburn, Kansas, Duke and Cincinnati. The rest of the top 16 are: No. 3s (Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan State and North Carolina) and No. 4s (Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona and Oklahoma).

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Is this the year stronger-than-ever Gonzaga, appearing in their 19th straight tournament, finally wins a national championship? One tournament question that’s always on the minds of fans and analysts alike has already been answered: is this the year a № 16 seed takes down a № 1 ?

A lot can – and usually does – happen between now and the end of the conference tournaments. The field could look vastly different from what we’ve seen so far because the overall arching theme of 2017-18 has been that there is no consensus dominant team. Heck, Virginia just lost at home in overtime to Virginia Tech.

Perhaps this is setting the stage for what would be the ultimate March Madness upset. Is this the year a No. 1 seed finally loses to a No. 16? Top seeds are 128-0 lifetime in that matchup. But a breakthrough has to come some time.

It’s not inconceivable that every team in the field could enter the NCAA Tournament with at least four losses – which would be only the second time that’s ever happened. (The last time was in 2016.) Every school has at least two defeats and only Virginia, Villanova and Cincinnati have fewer than three losses.

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The No. 5 seed this year is the highest they've received since that Final Four season. While at Kansas, Williams failed to get past the Sweet 16 in each of his first four trips as a No . 1 seed from 1992 to 1998, before finally reaching the Final Four in 2002.

No . 1 seeds Notre Dame and South Carolina were pushed to the limit but advanced to the Sweet 16 . So far, the Wildcats are the only team to lose on its home court in this tournament, although eight more will be playing at home Monday.

We live in a world where very little makes sense.

According to Ken Pomeroy, the biggest upset of this season was North Carolina losing at home to Wofford, 79-75. Wofford (17-9, 8-5) is the third-best team in the Southern Conference. Meanwhile, North Carolina (19-7, 8-5) is the best seven-loss team in America and could finish second in the ACC. And no one would be surprised if the defending national champion won the ACC Tournament.

That’s not the only result that will make you suspicious.

How do you explain Duke and Villanova both losing to St. John’s? The Red Storm’s Shamorie Ponds is a wonderful player, but that has to be the most perplexing eight-day stretch in recent NCAA memory. St. John’s, then a winless Big East team, upended Duke, the preseason No. 1, and then scored its first conference victory by stunning No. 1-ranked Villanova.

Huh?

When you look at the preliminary eight top overall seeds, all have a loss to a team that is currently unranked (Cincinnati fell to then-No. 5 Florida in December, but the Gators aren’t ranked now) and some of the defeats defy explanation.

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No . 1 seed most likely to lose before the Final Four: Gonzaga. My take: The 3.7 percent of you who think Gonzaga will be the first No . 1 seed ever to lose to a No . 16 baffle me. Not only are No . 1 seeds 128-0 against No . 16 seeds in NCAA tournament history, Gonzaga has an 18-1 record against

It's been 20 years since a No . 16 seed came within one possession of beating a No . 1 seed . In 1996, Anquell McCollum and Western Carolina lost to Purdue, 73-71. In this crazy season in which no dominant team emerged and top-5 teams were knocked off left and right, is this the year we finally

Look at Purdue. From Black Friday through Nov. 3, the Boilermakers won 19 in a row and looked like the most dominant force in the sport. Do you know who they lost to prior to that streak? Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are a good team and contending for an at-large bid, but this is a prime example of how one bad night on a neutral court could end your season.

Using Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology as a guide, these teams are in contention to be No. 16 seeds (factoring in the play-in games): Nicholls State, Savannah State, Harvard, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Wagner, and UNC Asheville. Among that group, Wagner (18-7) is the highest-rated KenPom team at No. 147. On paper, none of these teams seem good enough to oust a No. 1 seed. Wagner lost to Missouri, 99-55, and Seton Hall, 89-68. Harvard looks intriguing because it played then-No. 7 Kentucky close, losing 79-70.

If you look at Lunardi’s No. 15s, (Bucknell, Rider, UC Santa Barbara and Florida Gulf Coast), that’s where things could get interesting. UC Santa Barbara is the highest-rated in that group (No. 99) and everyone remembers Florida Gulf Coast’s Dunk City team.

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Seeded No. 8, Agassi lost in the first round to the American, Aaron Krickstein 7-5, 7-6, 6-2. 16 of 25. Roger Federer seemed a lock to win the U.S. Open in 2009. The No . 1 seed had not lost a match at This , moreover, was the first year the championship would be played in the new Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Denzel Valentine leads Michigan State as a dangerous No. 2 seed .Getty Images. Looking at the bracket, the high seeds look inviting as always, but this was a season in which top-five teams lost to Yes, there will be Madness again. South. 1 . Kansas 16 . Austin Peay. 8. Colorado 9. UConn.

The NCAA Tournament is often about matchups and it will take the favorable matchup or a hot shooting night from 3-point range for an upset to happen. Another factor you have to consider is the tournament selection committee. One way an upset can happen is when the committee makes a seeding mistake.

Earlier this week, ESPN analyst Jay Bilas was critical of the preliminary seeding and blamed it on the committee’s reliance on the RPI.

“What is laughably absurd is that Michigan State was No. 11 overall of the 16 teams and that Oklahoma was included at all,” Bilas said on SportsCenter. “One of the big issues the committee has is this quadrant system that they’ve come up with. First of all, the quadrant system is based upon the RPI, which is a horribly flawed measure.”

Jason McCallum, a senior researcher for SportsCenter, came up with his own bracket, based on ESPN’s College Basketball Power and the Strength of Record. McCallum argues that Villanova, Virginia, Purdue and Cincinnati should be the No. 1 seeds. Michigan State, Gonzaga, Kansas and Duke are his No. 2s.

BRACKET METRICS: A month from Selection Sunday, here's what the current bracket would be if you used Strength of Record (most deserving) to determine the field of 68, and then BPI (best teams) to seed those 68 teams. Lines minimally adjusted for bracket rules about matchups. pic.twitter.com/usxZO8PDnv

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ShaneTheLegLechler Houston Astros Fan Travis Gregory Stano GOAT Member since Dec 2011 41592 posts. re: Is this the year a # 16 seed finally Kansas owns Baylor, but if they lose tonight and then lose at Baylor, they'd be tied for the Big 12 lead. Definitely a weak 1 line this year across the board.

Please — PLEASE — let this be the year a 16 - seed finally upsets a 1 - seed . I want this so badly. Western Carolina missed a three-pointer for the win in 1996. The most recent close calls were in 2014, when Weber State lost to Arizona 68-59 (single digits!) and Coastal Carolina tied up their game

— Jason McCallum (@JMacSC) February 12, 2018

One of the greatest upsets in tournament history was aided by what, in retrospect, looked like a seeding error. In 2016, No. 2 Michigan State was stunned by Middle Tennessee.

Yes, Michigan State lost because it couldn’t guard the hot-shooting Blue Raiders. But you can make an argument that the Spartans should have never had to play that game. Many think the Spartans should have been a No. 1 seed and Middle Tennessee was clearly better than your typical No. 15 seed.

If the committee chooses a questionable No. 1 seed and matches it against a questionable No. 16 seed, then the conditions could be ripe for an upset. In a year when no team is dominant, there may not be much separation between the top eight schools.

You could see a scenario where a team like Auburn gets hot late to claim a No. 1 seed and then finds itself in a dogfight against an under-seeded No. 16. Does anyone trust a team like Texas Tech? Cincinnati has had past flameouts and is offensively challenged.

Or maybe this is all just wishful thinking.

The closest calls both came in the 1989 tournament. Top-seed Georgetown escaped No. 16 Princeton, 50-49, and No. 1 Oklahoma stormed back from a 15-point deficit to beat East Tennessee State.

According to Daniel Wilco of NCAA.com, average margin of victory since the field expanded is 24.86 points. Wilco also pointed out that only 15 games have been decided by less than 10 points and no game has been decided by one possession since 1996.

Wilco jokingly wrote that a No. 16 won’t beat a No. 1 until the Year 4250. Hopefully, we won’t have to wait that long.

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Based on the matchups of Jerry Palm's most recent NCAA Tournament projected bracket here are the percentages via SportsLine for his No . 1 seeds defeating the No . 16 seed it is predicted to face in the first round this year .

There's no telling how well JUCO numbers will translate at the 2012: No. 4 seed ( lost opener) 2013: No. 4 seed (advanced to title game) 2014: No. 2 seed (Elite Eight) 2015: Missed tournament 2016: Last four in Fortunately for Harvard, the Ivy League is finally adding a conference tournament this year

The post Will this be the year a No. 1 seed finally loses to a No. 16? appeared first on The Comeback.

Related slideshow: College basketball season (Provided by photo services)

Making it count

At its core, racin' is about drama. NASCAR traditionalists don't spell it with a "g" for a reason: Everybody's in a hurry to get to the finish line, so let's eliminate all the extraneous clutter. But clutter can be fine in the proper context. More cars equals more story lines equals more potential drama. There will be little drama when the engines rev up for Thursday's Daytona 500 qualifying But clutter can be fine in the proper context. More cars equals more story lines equals more potential drama.

Even if you really, truly believe that this is the year a No . 16 seed finally beats a No . 1 seed , you only have a 25 percent chance of picking the right one. Do: Pick Exactly 2 No . 1 and No. 2 Seeds to Lose Before Sweet 16.

Defending knight

Dancing mode

Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo, and Omari Spellman of Villanova reach for the ball along with Justin Simon of St. John's on Feb. 7 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The St. John's Red Storm defeated the Villanova Wildcats 79-75.

Watch me do it

George Diaz: Daytona Duels loses competitive vibe of wild-card qualifier .
At its core, racin' is about drama. NASCAR traditionalists don't spell it with a "g" for a reason: Everybody's in a hurry to get to the finish line, so let's eliminate all the extraneous clutter. But clutter can be fine in the proper context. More cars equals more story lines equals more potential drama. There will be little drama when the engines rev up for Thursday's Daytona 500 qualifying But clutter can be fine in the proper context. More cars equals more story lines equals more potential drama.

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The No. 5 seed this year is the highest they've received since that Final Four season. While at Kansas, Williams failed to get past the Sweet 16 in each of his first four trips as a No . 1 seed from 1992 to 1998, before finally reaching the Final Four in 2002.

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