Monday, April 25, 2016

Pro Tour Player Club Thoughts

I just got back from Barcelona where I made Top 8 in an
amazing tournament, but like everyone else I have no interest in talking about
the Pro Tour because of the bombshell Wizards dropped on us Sunday. My
apologies to Steve Rubin – he seemed like a really nice guy, and had the
decency to shuffle and sideboard quickly for game 3 of our match, even when a
draw was what he needed for top 8. He
didn’t know I was going to draw with him anyways, but just wanted to see his
deck post sideboard with Infinite Obliteration first. It’s a shame to have his first
victory overshadowed by this announcement.

There
are a lot of problems with Wizards’ announcement about changes to the prize
money payouts. First, there’s the timing of the changes to next years’ Platinum
benefits ¾ of the way through the season. Second, there’s the wisdom of the
changes for the future. Third, there’s the veracity of the claims in the post.
And fourth, there’s what’s unsaid – namely the lack of increase in prize money
over more than a decade.

Of all
the issues with these changes, only the revocation of platinum benefits for
2016-2017 can be labeled unethical and morally wrong. I’ve interacted with
Helene for a great many years and believe she cares deeply about the pro magic
community, so I can only assume one of two things. Either the decision was not
hers to make and she is taking the fall, or she did not realize the ethical
issues with the change. While I think the changes are ill advised, the
beginning of a season is the time to make these changes. A great number of
people have put in a lot of effort and expense to achieve the platinum benefits
listed on WoTC’s website. Revoking those benefits after 75% of the season is
done is unconscionable. Promises were made to players and they must be kept.

In
terms of long term strategy, cannibalizing platinum benefits in the interests
of having a flashier top prize for one tournament is ill advised and damaging
to the game. Removing the hall of fame benefits I’m fine with, but the platinum
players are the grinders who make up the core of the personalities and brands
Wizards wants to promote with the Pro Tour. Taking all their benefits and
putting it into one top heavy payout at the end of the year makes things problematic
for the magic “pro.” Magic is already incredibly difficult for the amount of
recompense, and already has lots of variance. The last match of a Pro Tour
doubles your win, and the difference between 9th in the swiss and
making the top 8 is enormous. The platinum benefits gave players at least a
little bit of a cushion against those swings. Not a single person I know wants
all of that on the line in a single end of the year tournament, and I know the
people who are most likely to win that tournament. Even if the total money were
the same, the increased variance isn’t good for anyone.

However
the prize money is dropping significantly despite Wizards’ claims to the
contrary. I really don’t understand this – they know Magic players are bright
and can do basic math. Did they just expect no one to do the simple math? In a
group where many people simulate the probabilities of hitting land drops with
24 vs 25 lands? Helene offered on twitter to show the math adds up, so it’s
possible I’m missing something, but as of yet she has not volunteered that
math. For simplicity I’m assuming the 2016 attendance numbers hold for 2017 –
one could argue that the assumption is off by a little, but the net change will
just be to reduce the magnitude of the effect slightly. Either way, it’s a
significant cut. There are 34 platinum pros this year who will receive 11k less
from PTs, that’s $374,000 in total. If we assume 20 play in World Magic Cup
Qualifiers and 20 attend the World Magic Cup that’s another $20,000. The
announcement also lists no appearance fees for Grand Prix, and while it’s
possible that’s an oversight, it seems much more likely that it is not. If each
of the 48 Grand Prix average 10 platinum pros receiving $250 each, that’s
another $120,000 annually. Now we add on the Hall of Fame reduction – let’s say
that only 20 players attend each pro tour on average and now receive $1500
annually instead of $6000. That’s another $90,000, a bit more if some of them
make the World Magic Cup. Sum up all the numbers and it’s a net cut of
$604,000.

On the
other side of the ledger are the increases to the Worlds payout. The pros who
achieve platinum this season will instead get a $100,000 increase to the Worlds
Payout, should they be lucky enough to qualify. This is a net reduction of
$500,000 or the prize money (excepting appearance fees) of approximately two
Pro Tours. The following years, assuming WoTC doesn’t change things again, the
Worlds payout increases another $250k, making the net reduction $250,000 from
that point forward, or the payout of one Pro Tour. Then they say “The
appearance fees … were meant to assist in maintaining the professional Magic
player’s lifestyle… we believe that the program is not succeeding at this goal,
and have made the decision to decrease appearance fees.” So they’re saying that
the program was not enough to maintain the Pro Player lifestyle, and as a
result they’re cutting it? This is impressive doublespeak. Sometimes it feels
like they have a low opinion of us when they write these things.

And of
course the final, biggest problem is that the Pro Tour hasn’t seen an increase
in prize payouts in a very long time. In the last decade Magic revenue is up by
at least 300%, and probably more. It’s impossible to know for sure since their
earnings reports don’t break things down by game, but I’ve heard enough from
enough reliable sources that I think 300% is a reliable low end estimate.
Meanwhile, the prize money has increased little if at all. In 2006 a Pro Tour paid
out $240k, now it pays $250k. There were also benefits similar to platinum
going back even further. In 2001, when Ben Rubin smashed me in the finals of
the Masters Chicago, the prize was $150k/tournament on top of the Pro Tour
payout – so even more than the platinum benefits. Over a decade and the prize
money has barely budged. This sort of short termism has plagued Magic
throughout the years, most notably in starving MTGO of resources. I’ve written
enough here, but Matt Sperling dives into this (and more) in his post here, http://sperlinggrove.blogspot.com/2016/04/platinum-pro-club-changes-corporate.html, which you all should read.

In a
perfect world Wizards would roll back the appearance fee changes (except for
the Hall of Fame, we don’t need it) and consider maybe increasing the prize
money some time. Instead, our likely best case scenario is pushing back the
platinum changes one year and still having a significant reduction. The players
and fan base all love Magic, it’s a part of all our lives. Magic players are
one of the most loyal consumers of any product out there, and one of the most
profitable. It’s a shame to see WoTC treat them with such little respect, and I
doubt it will be a good long term decision for their bottom line either.

Update:
Based on the comments below and on twitter, it appears the GP appearance fee will remain $250, or the same as Pro Tours. So the reduction in prize money would be 384k followed by 134k, rather than the numbers I have above. Thanks for the help.

94 comments:

The money should go into GP's. Get rid of the 3 byes, 2 byes max and increase the pay out for 6-7 'super GP', where anyone can enter, be on equal footing and win BIG money. Appearance fee reneg. is immoral and unethical, we can all agree to that. Wotc should pay you guys out one more year. THEN, kill all appearance fees, funnel all the money into GP prizes/PT. Not Worlds. Good article. Remember when 'gravy train' meant an extra PT invite?

Platinum pros will receive an appearance fee of $250 for competing at Pro Tours (previously $3,000), an appearance fee of $250 for competing at the World Magic Cup (previously $1,000), and an appearance fee of $250 for competing at a World Magic Cup Qualifier (previously $500).

Agree on most all points Jon and appreciate your direct approach in addressing these concerns.

I do feel that the removal of the HoF perks are negligible to most HoF'ers that attend PT's with any regularity.

I also feel that it is an ethical failure to cut the Platinum benefits 'mid-stream'. If WotC is dead set on making this change to the Platinum players, I feel it cannot begin until the end of the following season.

Additionally, if WotC does proceed with a future cut of the Platinum fees, this money should be used to increase payouts for Grand Prix's; where the majority of the tournament magic players have access to participate, instead of the top of the top of the top World Championship payout that they have chosen instead.

Unfortunately, I think $600,000 spread across 48 GP's will only result in $12,500 per GP in payout, which is akin to an extra $200 per top 64 player - nice, but not enough to make it feel like it's a worthy exchange for these Platinum and HoF fees being removed.

Instead, I would propose having 12 GP's per year be deemed "Super Grand Prix", events which would have an additional $50,000 added to their prize pool. These 12 events could be scheduled to occur once per month through the year, and can be easily broken into a fair share of North America, Europe, Asian, and some of the other smaller regions with GP's scheduled once a year or so.

An additional $50,000 payout at a GP would represent a substantial jump in payout to what would very likely be 3,000+ person sized mega Grand Prix events. Whether that means upping the top 64 in prizes or extending prized down to the top 128 or even 256 players is a decision that can be debated on both sides. Personally, I think payouts running deeper is a better way to increase GP attendance and increase MTG's popularity. I feel that it makes attending such an enormous event a break even or better experience for a larger percentage of the field and that is better for the game in general.

Jon, I for one want to see more of my money go to support a robust pantheon of pros that provide the inspirational motivation to pursue the game seriously. We do have a good estimate on MTG revenues, btw. According to Bloomberg, it was about $329M in 2014. Article link here: https://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj2_vDwm6rMAhWMvIMKHQiJBB8QjhwIBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Ffeatures%2F2015-disney-princess-hasbro%2F&psig=AFQjCNECP26Di2ZrgWfd5lGtgYwjSeUs1A&ust=1461688433665203

Side note: Congrats on your Top 8, btw. Great to see you abusing Seasons Past.

As someone who casually plays magic I am equally upset with these changes. I treat magic like someone else might treat football. It is a 'sport' that I follow and at the same time play. I don't tune in to watch football against unknown teams just because it's football. Again is just the same with magic.

I was away for friday/saturday so watched all the coverage on twitch VoD. As a result I was able to skip past anything that I didn't care about. That included coverage of players I don't know. Sure maybe someone is 10-0 and deserves to be featured but in my own selfish way I don't care. Provided they're up at the top end I want to be watching the LSV's, Jon's etc. If these changes are going to reduce the number of pros playing it will simply reduce how much I watch magic and as a result how much I'll spend buying decks I saw the guys I like playing.

I'm pretty sure wizards are not stupid. They must know their big name players have pulling power. When I knew about the T8 lineup I was drooling over the prospect of LSV Finkel final... then they both went out right away I just found myself skipping through most the remaining coverage and only half paying attention to the final.

Hearthstone is not nearly as good of a game as Magic is to most pros. That's why they have stuck with playing Magic and suffering with MTGO. I have a feeling that Hasbro are the ones responsible for this endeavor and Wizards had no say in it. I hope they would have battled as hard as they could to prevent it, though.

I think an end goal of the change is to simply reduce the number of platinum pros. The 2017 Worlds payout has $12,000 for last place which offsets the loss of PT appearance fees and the $86,000 net increase in prize pool gives an average equity per player of $3500 to offset other losses in the changes. I agree with everything you said, but I think one thing that has been getting overlooked in most discussions is that WotC is putting a hard cap of 24 on the number of platinum pros by shifting the platinum benefits to Worlds starting in 2017. I am not agreeing with WotC I am just trying to point out what I believe their intent to be.

Is providing a career in Magic for a select group of Pros an effective way for Wizards to sell their product?

As someone with numerous friends on the PT, I would like to believe so, yet I have a nagging suspicion that these are not actually funds well spent. With no offense meant to anyone in particular, I doubt the majority of Magic players could pick most of the Platinum Pros out of a lineup.

I think the Pro Tour and organized play are a net good for the game and *do* help drive sales of product, but I think the appearance fees would be better spent in raising tournament prizes across the board (including GPs, which are in desperate need of a further increase). Raising the reward for finishing highly at Magic tournaments will help off-set the loss of appearance fees, and will continuously reward performance (as opposed to simply showing up).

But while I think higher tournament payouts are a good idea, I would disagree with the tack that WotC has taken in this case. Payouts should be flattened, not made more top-heavy. A higher first prize will indeed generate more publicity, but will also lead to a ton of variance. Flattening the payouts gives a better chance that a consistently successful Magic player such as Owen Turtenwald can make a passable living at this game without being paid outside of the tournament structure.

I can almost guarantee MTG revenue went up more than 300%, since Hasbro's own investor materials claim revenue increases in that range in just four years. I mentioned it in my rant about this BS. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMz8pLt67x0 Source: imgur.com/a/nEqiw. It's atrocious that they can brag about gaining players/revenue year over year and keep slashing benefits.

Great stuff. One tweak to the calculations would be expected number of Plat Pros in following years. Wizards recently upped the points needed for Platinum, which likely reduces the number of future Platinums.

I know this is just speculation, but do you think the new CEO could be behind these new changes. With new leadership usually comes drastic changes that don't make sense. Just an idea. Great article Mr. Finkle.

You do know that 99% of players do not play in tournaments, follow the competitive scene, or even know magic has pro players."Either the decision was not hers to make and she is taking the fall, or she did not realize the ethical issues with the change."What kind of BS statement is that?!?! Helene is not taking a fall and for sure MBAs of a multi-billion dollar, global company know of all the angles.WotC shouldn't be responsible for your income or lifestyle.

I'm not sure why Grand Prix and Pro Tour tournaments don't pay (outside the top 8) to Swiss record. It discourages late draws, and for the Grand Prix that most dedicated players, it means prizes automatically scale with attendance. It's relatively easy for tournament organizers to predict as well.

Not a fan of the lower appearance fees either, even if I will never come close to being eligible for them.

One simple solution that should be recognized by WotC is the elegant and clever prize distribution that SCG has implemented which states that whatever 64th place standing is, pays prize money down to the same record. It is immensely annoying to go X-4 say at a GP and still come in 94th place simply based on your tiebreakers which is randomly determined by your opponents.

I would even consider a token recompense of the tournament entry fee rather than the $250 for 64th place as a step forward.

On a side note, this whole affair reeks of their previous changes last year where as a grinder I had earned 3 byes via Planeswalkers points to have them reverse this to a non-Gold player not being able to earn more than 2 byes when those "byes" had been rightly earned via extensive time, money (a very real and considerable amount) and effort on my part and the very least of which should have been done was to "grandfather" those byes in for the next season

I agree on everything jon but I believe several hall of famers like olle rade who rely on the fee to make it to every pro tour would disagree since they are unable to compete for the flight on rptqs or mtgo :/

Running the numbers myself I come to this: - on average 24 HOF members played in the last three PTs. Three of them played in the WMC --> Cut of $111k annually (not accounting for Watanabe who is for sure getting in this year)

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