Why Education Could Hurt Jeb Bush’s 2016 Presidential Chances

August 12, 2013 | 11:51 AM

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland, March 15, 2013.

Two 2016 presidential horse race stories posit that former Gov. Jeb Bush’s stock is down following the recent resignation of Education Commissioner Tony Bennett and Florida and Indiana lawmakers questioning the veracity of the A-to-F school grading systems Bush pioneered.

Bush hasn’t said whether or not he intends to run in 2016.

Bush built his gubernatorial legacy on a suite of education policies — largely built around Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test results — to assess student progress and school performance. But both stories argue two issues could turn that perceived strength into a weakness in a Republican presidential primary.

Bush’s influence has remained strong in Florida. But there is evidence that he may be losing clout.This spring, Bush and the Foundation for Florida’s Future were unable to pass the parent trigger bill, which would have allowed parents to demand changes at low-performing schools. They suffered another defeat last month, when the state Board of Education approved a “safety-net” to prevent school grades from dropping dramatically in the wake of new, more challenging student state exams. The foundation had argued that artificial inflation would undermine the grading system.

“The long sleep is now over,” said Kathleen Oropeza, of the Orlando-based parent group Fund Education Now. “People are starting to realize that Jeb and his reforms are not good for children and not good for schools. They are meant to privatize public education.”

Common Core is scheduled to be used in every Florida classroom beginning just over a year from now. As the deadline approaches, a rising number of folks on the political right and left are concerned about the standards.

Those on the right worry the standards will centralize education and limit local control. They’re concerned the federal government has offered money to states which adopt Common Core. And they’ve questioned the content of the standards.

On the left, the concerns are an increasing amount of standardized testing and a top-down approach to education which reduces the control teachers have over their classrooms.

But Bush also faces more visceral opposition that could sway voters, especially in Republican primaries. At its crux: Fury over Common Core.

Many establishment Republicans support Common Core, as do business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable. Yet tea-party conservatives see it as a federal infringement on local control over education. Prominent commentators such as Michelle Malkin have ripped into Bush for his Common Core advocacy. In Florida, several top Republican legislators have urged the state to pull out of a national consortium developing Common Core-aligned exams.

Republican activist Shane Vander Hart, who has been organizing opposition to Common Core in Iowa, says Bush’s position is likely to be “a negative with the grassroots Republicans” who participate in the state’s presidential caucus. “It’s a stain on his record as an education reformer,” he said.

Education is a complicated issue for presidential politics. Unlike immigration, taxes, or spending, there is no clean split between Republican and Democrats on many education issues. Voters also tend to feel more strongly about other issues.

Occasionally, those on the right and left wings of the political spectrum join forces to oppose policies supported by the middle. That’s how teachers, led by the union, and Common Core opponents ousted Bennett in Indiana elections last year.

As for Bush’s possible 2016 run, we’d handicap the issues in this priority:

Results in Florida — Last year Florida’s fourth graders scored among the best students in the world on an international reading test. Florida elementary scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress have also improved since Bush took office (those improvements have not carried over to middle and high schools). Those are very simple and direct talking points.

Common Core — The issue just doesn’t have widespread resonance yet, and parents are most likely to take notice of the standards because of the effect on school grades. Fewer students meeting state expectations will mean fewer A- and B-rated school. Experts say the outrage could be highest in suburban districts which historically earn strong ratings. And finally, it’s also worth noting that Florida may not administer its first Common Core-tied exam until early 2016, which means the Florida presidential primary will likely be long concluded by the time test results are released.