The Warriors Should Improve, Even If Their Record Doesn’t

The Warriors’ fate this season, like always, comes down to a series of “ifs.” If the team can build upon the aggressive defense and selfless offense their new coaching staff debuted this preseason, if Stephen Curry’s ankles hold up for an entire season, and if Monta Ellis can maintain focus amidst a legal storm, the Warriors should be an improved team from the .439 squad that finished 12th in the West law year. The only catch? Their record may not reflect that improvement, at least not initially.

The first 10 games of the Warriors’ season, to put it politely, are going to be a challenge. Over the next three weeks the team plays the Clippers (home), the Bulls (home), the Knicks (home), the Sixers (home), the Suns (road), the Spurs (road), the Lakers (road), the Jazz (home), Miami (home) and Orlando (home). For those keeping score at home, that’s seven 10-11 playoff teams and nine teams that finished with better records than the Warriors. The one team with a worse record than the Ws last year is the NBA’s most improved squad this off-season, the Clippers. Looking objectively at this stretch of games, the Warriors should be happy to go 3-7 (wins over Sixers, Suns and Jazz). They could easily go 2-8 or 1-9. And although the Warriors have strained their credibility by claiming year after year that their record doesn’t reflect the team’s true improvement or capability, they may actually have a point this year.

The challenge for fans, at least initially in this lockout shortened season, will be to look past what should be a pretty mediocre record following the first 10 games. The schedule will level out eventually (late January and February look pretty soft) and in a shortened season there will be fewer games separating the haves from the have nots. Wins and losses are the ultimate way to judge a team, but for a squad looking to make incremental gains against some of the best in the league, fans are going to need to dig deeper to measure progress. The following are by no means advanced statistics, but they can serve as rough indicators of how the Warriors are progressing:

Do the Warriors hold their opponents under .467 shooting? That was what they gave up last year, 21st in the NBA — compared to Chicago’s league leading .430, closely followed by Miami’s and Boston’s .434. As the abysmal offensive performance in Sacramento showed, a good defensive night can level the playing field when your offense isn’t clicking. The Warriors’ opponents will be better than Kings, but hopefully their offense performances won’t be as hapless as last Tuesday. Ultimately, the Warriors just need to stay within striking distance of their superior opponents. My guess is the shortened preseason will lead to some excellent teams having long stretches of sub-par offensive execution. If the Warriors can maintain defense intensity, they should be close enough to exploit those stretches and to steal a few games they have no right to win.

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Are more than 57% of the Warriors’ baskets assisted? The Warriors seem to have finally abandoned the isolation-dependent offense that plagued the team the past few years. Curry and Ellis both did an excellent job moving the ball and scoring in the flow of the offense during the preseason. Their teammates — Lee in particular — also looked to move without the ball to get high percentage looks at the basket. With a little patience, the Warriors should be able to use their potent offensive weapons in a more consistent, refined manner. I use percentage of baskets with assists as a crude short-hand for how teammates are creating offense for one another. It’s not a perfect reflection of whether the team is being selfless and crisp in offensive execution, but if the numbers are low it’s usually a strong indicator of something broken at the offensive end.

Are the Warriors winning the rebounding battle? The Warriors were dead last in the NBA last season with a rebound percentage of .475. In other words, for every 1000 rebounds available, the Warriors grabbed 475, their opponents 525. That translates directly into extra possessions (and baskets) for their opponents. So far, the team’s rebounding looks to be dramatically improved — Biedrins is active again, Brown can hold his own under the basket, and new additions like McGuire and Thompson seem to have a nose for the ball. If the Warriors do a better job cleaning the class, it’ll take pressure off their defense, spark their fast break and lead to more second-chance looks — the type of marginal improvement they’ll need night-in, night-out to compensate for the fact that they didn’t get a big talent upgrade this off-season.

So, when the Warriors roll out the battle-tested line over the next weeks that the team really is better than its record and improving despite what the scoreboard may indicate, there are some objective ways to measure how this team stacks up to the ignoble ones that came before it.

But even some significant improvement resulting from better coaching, more consistent contributions from its starters (return of Biedrins, no Lee injury) and the team’s first real NBA-quality bench in years may not be enough to get a dramatic bump in wins. The NBA — in a classic Stern move of putting spectacle before basketball — has scheduled the East’s marquee teams to make visits to Oakland. Miami, Chicago, Boston, New York and Orlando all make stops. I’m sure someone in the League office thought they were doing the Warriors a favor, giving them more guaranteed sell-outs in a year where there’s no guarantee any of the teams would be on the home schedule. But while the scheduling quirk may line the Warriors’ pockets, it’ll hurt their win total. Rather than getting the softer eastern teams on their home court — likely wins — the Warriors will face superior teams — likely losses. The other half of the equation is the Warriors will be in a weakened state on tightly scheduled road trips when they face the lesser eastern teams — teams they might actually have had a shot of beating if playing at full strength. While I’m loath to make any excuses for this squad — it’s one area in which they’ve always excelled — this aspect of the schedule puts them at a competitive disadvantage.

Although those predicting NBA records typically have a hit rate somewhere between doomsday prophets and the farmer’s almanac, here’s mine. Despite better quality basketball from the new coaching staff and deeper bench, I don’t see the Warriors making a big leap because they still haven’t rolled the dice to obtain a difference maker. This is a 30 win team, at best, and will once again be stuck in the mediocre middle of the NBA.

Adam Lauridsen

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49’ers…wish they had Cam Newton or Andy Dalton. And of course, we all recall how they could have picked Rodgers instead of Alex.

The good news is that teams have won the Super Bowl with great defenses and mediocre QBs.

Tarheel Warrior

Believewhat,

Hope you’re in a good time zone and won’t have to watch the games at 3AM.

believewhat

TW,

I am in India, so will try to watch while having breakfast 🙂

Tarheel Warrior

Believewhat,

That’s good…guess you’ll watch the Test match on TV.

Tired

Merry Xmas Everyone!

For Xmas cheer watch the tapes of the the ’75 championship games that are being shown on Comcast Sports. What a ride that was. Total teamwork brings down the super stars.

Go Ws!

Our Team

So IF it is true that Ellis and Smith never had sex what the h are the Warriors doing saying they had a “consensual relationship”? That doesnt mean a nonsexual relationship, at least not to anyone who is living in this century.

Our Team

TW, it sounds like you’ll be disappointed in Alex’s play even if we win the Super Bowl.

al oha

Why are my posts being blocked?

al oha

Can sexting be considered a consensual relationship?

What happens first? Alex wins a SuperBowl, or the GS Warriors win another NBA Championship?

For those who need to watch via stream try: firstrowsports. t v

Tarheel Warrior

OT,

You’re right. Alex Smith = Trent Dilfer (homeboy from Santa Cruz)

But Trent had a career QB rating of 70.2. Alex so far is at 76.

But I can hope for a championship with Alex. But even if that happens, I’ll still consider him mediocre.

You can win with a mediocre QB and a great team, or with a great QB and a mediocre team.

Kudos to Jim Harbaugh, his Coaching Staff, and the San Francisco 49ers for essentially locking up the 2 seed in the NFC Playoffs and guaranteeing themselves of a second round home game.

This game, likely to be against the N.O. Saints, gives them a much better chance of winning at home than in the SuperDome. It assures of playing in the biggest games since the glory years of days gone past.

I’m dreaming of a cold wintery game in G.B. in the New Year, pitting the NFL’s best Offense against the best Defense and an improving Offense against an average Defense. The difference could be the 49ers’ great Special Teams.

Also a Christmas wish of speedy recoveries for Stephen Curry, Delanie Walker, and Kyle Williams. We are going to need them badly.

meir34

Amen to all the wishes for speedy recoveries. The Knicks game was exciting. Being that it’s X-mas I won’t rub in Melo’s obvious role in the win. Y’all can read the box and the log of the game. Hubris should be out for Chanukah and Xmas so the claims by some of being smarter than Stern, smarter than Lacob and Guber and Riley all with West’s input, smarter than Nellie, etc., and knowing how we wouldn’t want a player like Melo. I guess that means smarter than D’Antoni, smarter than all the others clamoring to find a way to get Melo.

I look forward to Stephen”s showing that his injuries don’t matter-and that we are better off with him than Paul.

BTW, Melo got more rebounds than Chandler today, 2 steals to go with his 8 rebound and 15 trips to the line, and all the key winning shots. His scoring you can check yourselves.

BTW, I thought Chandler and Amare weren’t yet working well and they both got lost in the low key too 0ften. The advantage of using a team with experience together was all Boston’s, but Melo destroyed a nice Boston lead late. Exciting game, if too sloppy for a game at Xmas. About right considering the circumstances leading up to it.

Off for the day, but def. back tonight for the Warriors game-GO WARRIORS!

Have a wonderful Holiday season and include me in your healthy recovery prayers, without going into it, please!

meir34

Our: for that matter what was the meaning of pointedly saying they warned the girl to keep away from Ellis AND Curry?????????????

The facts of sex in the NBA, with Chamberlain and Magic, to prove it’s been going on a long time, and Kobe in this era, require huge counseling on this topic maybe all through a player’s first year. And given what we know of most animal species, it’s a tough play even then.

Heck, Evangelists’, famous ones, seem to always be getting in the papers for sexual scandals. And I’ve been no Monk myself in my lifetime.

It’s a rough row to hoe and it’s hard to find people with opportunity all the time, that don’t live in glass houses.

A good time to recall, the advice: Let he who is without Sin cast the first stone.

Ta’ and have a wonderful day.

al oha

More of the same ol’ egotistical bluster.

Yeah, we know where you really stand on Stephen Curry, despite all the glowing reports and unequivocal support, from the very same people you purport to respect. Like you would know better than them. In fact, the accusations you so easily spurt out at fellow posters, all can be said about yourself. Of course, you can’t ever see that. And then you hedge your vile of Curry, by pretending to be an admirer (in case he does become a major Star in the League), when it is obvious you’re not.

Your man-love of Melo, reveals your affinity for selfish, overpaid, one-on-one basketball players who take up so much of the Cap AND time with the ball, that they will never win the Ultimate Prize. And YOU talk about spending other people’s money. Ha.

You say to look at the stats of the Boston/NY game. Melo had a great game, no doubt, but you failed to mention he had an “unforced” turnover, losing the ball OB with the game tied and 53 seconds in the game. It was a great defensive play by Landry Fields stealing the ball from Ray Allen that led to the 2 winning FT by Melo on the other end. And THAT foul call was debatable as Daniels swiped the ball away from Melo from behind. It appeared to be “all ball”, though they never replayed it clearly. So again, stats don’t tell the whole story. Watch the Game.

Your vile towards the Warriors’ most important player and other posters here, repeated on Christmas Day, is so totally misplaced and just plain wrong. Have you no couth?

Hope we can look forward to a Happy New Year.
Merry Christmas, again, everyone.

…scotch

Thanks al oha…saved us all the time responding to the same old meir drivel.

…and you didn’t even mention Melo’s ast-TO ratio 3:5..but of course that only matters when he’s “obviously” supporting Steph.

..don’t you love how he couldn’t get to the keyboard fast enough after Steph sprained his ankle to lament not having traded him when his value was high.

…and notice how there’s been nothing of the kind from him about Monta’s trade value after this latest embarrassment?

al oha

The Golden State Warriors.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Just life in David Stern’s NBA.

Our Team

Why would they warn her to stay away from Curry? Afraid he mightnget her to join his church choir group?

Tarheel Warrior

Some impressions:

Celtics-Knicks — Rondo brilliant. Would you trade Curry for him (forget about salaries for a moment)? Bass an improvement over Big Baby. Melo had a great game, but can he keep it up? Knicks need a PG — Shumpert and Douglas are not it and Baron out a few weeks.

Heat-Mavs — predictable result. LBJ seems to have more of an attitude this year, league better watch out. Odom — WFT, 2 technicals. Mavs too busy in the afterglow of their championship.

Lakers-Bulls (at the half) — I predict Bulls will win championship. Great bench, good pieces. Boozer looks better and quicker and smaller, Asik no longer a rookie, Rose should be better, as well as Deng and Noah. Hamilton is a great addition. Lakers starting lineup includes Ebanks and McRoberts, with Murphy and Metta World off the bench. They better hope Bynum comes back strong and healthy. If Gasol gets hurt, they’ll finish behind the dubs.

Now go Warriors!

Tarheel Warrior

Did anyone watch the Baylor-West Virginia game? I watched to get a good read on Perry Jones (Baylor) as a prospect. Turned out I was looking at the wrong Jones.

Kevin Jones of WV was impressive — 28 pts (13-24)and 17 RBs and shut down Perry (9 pts on 2-9) with great D, despite being about 3″ shorter, Kevin has a big body (listed at 250 lbs). But the most impressive things about him are his hustle and energy, his BB IQ, his positioning, setting picks, defense.

Not a great athlete but a real good player. Might be available if we get a pick. Won’t be a superstar but a workhorse PF or SF.

Tarheel Warrior

BTW, Kevin Jones can play outside (can shoot ) and inside.

jsl

TW: Wish you understood football as well as you do bball; if you really think Alex Smith is mediocre — even after yesterday’s game — you’ve got “Meir Blinders” on. Sad to see; and sad to say.

It’s becoming a ritual: First half conservatism in play calling — with a soupcon of dropped passes (yesterday VD, Crabs, and Gore) — followed by second half opening up of the O, and Alex excelling. This is his 6th or 7th 4Q comeback this season. You can have your Romos; I’ll go with the guy who gets better — not worse — when thew game’s on the line, Thank You.

Mediocre? Hardly. Well, at least Harbaugh gets it. And that last pass to Crabs, right after the Lynch TD? Could it have been more perfect?

Sheeesh! Well, many folks — who have forgotten it now — were very anti-Steve Young early on, too. We’re hoping you’ll get this sooner or later, TW. Try harder.

Al: Meir’s secret is that he’s so loony he thinks he the anti-Christ.

So his actions are totally understandable. Anyone who loves Das Stern and hates Curry — even on Christmas — is way beyond human repair. And Meir’s been there, it seems, almost forever.

Our Board Putz. The Joker who gives new meaning to the word “despicable.” Beelzebub personified.

al oha

Thank you Hank Williams Jr. Your ridiculous and outrageous pronouncements re: Barack Obama as well as stupid lyrics to some of your songs, got you ultimately fired from one of your (hopefully last) income streams as the opening soundtrack to the featured ABC game.

Faith Hill is such an obvious upgrade, it is not even close.

Plus, she’s not so bad to look at.

The Oracle

Frank,

You make an indefensible argument on OR’s being a 2nd possession.

During the shot and OR, at what point does the defensive team gain possession? The obvious answer is, they don’t.

Without change of possession, there is no “new” possession, as by definition possession implies control /ownership of the ball. In order for it to be a new possession, and not a continuation of the previous one, the defensive team must at some point control possession of the ball, and they never do.

A missed shot and OR is therefore logically a continuation of possession since possession of the ball never changes from one team to another.

bryhsiao

btw Pierce was injured and didn’t play. Guess who will he be guarding if he were to play?

They’ve got to be happy so far to be ahead, considering the outside shop has not been dropping at all.

Nice to see Monta go inside a little when his outside shot isn’t falling, and he found Kwame once too

Curry seemingly not doing much but it feels like they have energy when he’s out there

Tarheel Warrior

Watched AB like a hawk, as I think our season depends on him. He was excellent in his 11 mins. this first half. Strong D on Jordan and very active. This is the good news. Bad news is our backcourt is shooting like crap..but that won’t continue.

Udoh and Klay were awful and need to step up. NBA game seems too fast for Klay right now…hopefully things will soon slow down for him.

TheCity

Biedrins so awesome tonight

Tarheel Warrior

Lee having a good game too.

TheCity

Meir never changes – he again pouts because the front office doesn’t do what he wants – and puts the blame on Curry, just as Meir did last year. Now, according to Meir, it’s up to Curry to make up for the front office not doing Meir’s bidding

Meir: “look forward to Stephen”s showing that his injuries don’t matter-and that we are better off with him than Paul”

I have never met an older child than Meir.

TheCity

3’s are not falling

Nice follow up by Lee

bryhsiao

Monta finally realized that his shot is not on tonight and decided to go inside and hand off.
A couple nice drive and hand off.

Monta is playing PG to night and should be evaluated accordingly.

TheCity

thank god jordan missing so many free throws or this game would be completely out of hand

TheCity

Yay – finally a 3!

bryhsiao

I hope AB won’t be reminded by the heckaXPlayer trick that ruined his confidence.

AB this game is such a positive sign. He guarded Blake griffin straight up and also challenged many shots with results in 3 blocks. 8pts 8rebs.
Solid performance so far.

BradH

What a joke! This is a D-league team. AB looking nice, but Lee is garbage.

bryhsiao

Udoh left Cook at the 3pt line –> 3ptr made.

sigh.. Udoh is horrible today.

bryhsiao

where is the set play? where is the play calling?

it’s been 1on1 for the most of the 3rd qtr.

TheCity

Brad – you watching the basketball game?

bryhsiao

Curry made an excellent screen for DLee who scored on the drive.
Lee then left Cook on the 3pt land -> 3 ptr made.

facepalm. Don’t they read scouting report that Cook can only do one thing and one thing only which is shooting 3s?