For quite some time, the Northwest Rail corridor stakeholders have been waiting to hear the results of direct negotiations with Burlington-Northern over the cost of running rail service along their tracks between Denver and Longmont. Well, the numbers are in and . . . they are big.

We learned that the full cost of getting the Northwest Rail line up and running will be $1.4 billion. This is up from the most recent cost estimate of roughly $900 million. This cost increase reflects the requirement that RTD pay Burlington-Northern (BN) an up-front fee of over $500 million for securing permanent operations time on their tracks, as opposed to the initial assumption of annual instalment payments as part of general operations expenses. The higher price also reflects unanticipated scope elements that BN is demanding, such as full double tracking between Boulder and Longmont.

Another kicker is the potential that the final cost of the Northwest Rail line will run as much as $300 million higher due to RTD cash flow challenges. Under the current planning scenario, with the Northwest Rail line being the last completed FasTracks system, RTD does not expect to have sufficient resources to complete this commuter rail system for another three to five years. The result is an anticipated cost escalation of $150 to $300 million due to price inflation.

To be fair, the new cost estimate for the Northwest Rail line already accounts for inflationary expenses as a consequence of placing this system at the back of the prioritization line. The rational for this approach is that an alternative prioritization scenario would would force RTD to delay all of the other remaining FasTracks projects until the Northwest Rail line is complete. Still, when assessing the current cost estimate for the Northwest Rail line, it is important to remember that it would be around $400 million less if construction began soon after 2012, a much more reasonable rate when compared to the cost estimates for other rail corridors.

Regardless, the sticker shock for the Northwest Rail line has forced RTD and corridor stakeholders to consider other implementation options. Taking the first stab, the options that RTD staff placed on the table are as follows:

1. Stick with the original implementation plan, but delay the anticipate completion date for the Northwest Rail line unitl 2023 or 2025;

2. Revise the FasTracks schedule assumptions to complete the Northwest Rail line sooner;

3. Maintain the current schedule assumptions for FasTracks implementation, but accelerate select capital projects and increase funding for bus service for the Northwest Rail corridor and US 36 Bus Rapid Transit stakeholders; and,

4. Remove the Northwest Rail line from the FasTracks plan and commit additional funding Bus Rapid Transit in the US 36 corridor and beyond, like stretching the service to Longmont.

A full presentation that elaborates on these options is available here: Northwest Rail – Implementation Options. RTD staff and the Northwest Rail corridor stakeholder are planning to meet early next year to discuss these options and to consider other alternative implementation scenarios. Now is the time to share your own perspective on the best path forward, in light of the higher projected cost numbers for the Northwest Rail line. I look forward to hearing from you . . .

I note, too, that this conversation will play a key role in determining the scope of a potential ballot initiative in 2012 to increase the FasTracks tax. Debate about the tax initiative has typically focused on a proposed 0.4% sales tax that will accelerate completion of the FasTracks system, including the Northwest Rail line. However, the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) recently floated the proposal for a larger joint tax initiative that will fund both FasTracks and roadway projects.

You can read more about the CDOT proposal here: Officials discuss single tax push for both FasTracks, roads. The conversation on this front is just beginning, but it certainly creates the intriguing opportunity to address a broader range of transportation needs across the region. I will provide further updates regarding this proposal and any other alternative initiatives as more details emerge.