Marco Rubio is the big market mover on Betfair

With Donald Trump on the wane and Jeb Bush stalling in the race to be Republican nominee, political gamblers have been scratching around for better-priced alternatives. Down the field outsiders Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, recommended here at around 1.5% apiece for the Presidency, are both rated roughly twice as likely now. However, the most sustained and substantial move has been for Marco Rubio.

Buoyed by two impressive debate performances and some encouraging underlying polls, the 44 year-old Florida Senator is now rated 23% likely to win his party’s nomination, still behind but closing on Bush at 31%. Rubio is now rated 10% for the Presidency, up from 2.5% going into the first debate.

My view is that he’s probably the strongest, most electable candidate and a likely beneficiary should the non-political trio of Trump, Fiorina and Carson fall away as the primaries near. However that is not yet certain and factored into the odds.

At some stage I’ll likely add him to the portfolio but, for now, there’s easier money to be made having cheap bets at big odds, with a view towards trading for a profit when their ratings improve.