March 22, 2017

TrumpCare / RyanCare on the bubble

The Republican health care bill is either the lite version of the craptastic Obamacare law, or else it's the first step in a path towards a real repeal and replace bill that solves real problems with healthcare. The fate of the bill is on the bubble. A lot of Republicans do not seem to be onboard. The CBO weighed in and said it was bad in the short term but will be beneficial in 10 years. And immediately the intrinsic CBO bias was being rehashed. Where the bill ends up ultimately doesn't depend on part 1 but parts 2 and 3 and whether they exist and deliver as promised and are enacted prior to the 2018 midterm elections.

"I would hate to be a Republican whose vote prevented us from keeping the commitment we've made to the American people for almost 10 years now" to repeal and replace former President Barack Obama's health care law, the Kentucky Republican told AP reporters and editors.

"I think the American people would be deeply disappointed that we were prevented from keeping our commitment by Republicans who in the end, in effect, voted for the status quo."

So if GOP Senate leadership are pushing on members to get on board where does that leave things? All of this while Republicans fuss amongst themselves about the merits of the bill. And they should be doing just that - bills of this nature require sober thinking, discussion and real debate. The problem is politics. It leaves media in a position to claim even Republicans cannot agree on the bill as is. It leaves the public wondering when and where things will shake out for their insurance.

And all of this discord waters the seeds of Democrats attempts to secure the Senate in 2018 (despite an uphill battle) or at least deny Republicans a filibuster-proof 60 seats in the Senate. But what happens today doesn't really matter. What matters is the real impact on pocketbooks come 2018. The problem is not debate and it is not even politics. The real problem is time. 2018 is already closing in. To provide some context we are on Day 61 of president Trump's first 100 days and already 9% of the way to the midterm elections.