Almada (PT)

City profile

Almada is densely populated, and limited to the east by Seixal, south by Sesimbra, and bordered on the remaining cardinal directions by the Atlantic Ocean and the Tagus River. Covering an area of 70.2 km², its municipal population in 2008 was 164,844 inhabitants; the urbanized centre had a population of 102,357. Population density is 2,355 / km2 . Its location near the Atlantic Ocean on the one hand and near Lisbon metropolis on the other hand opens interesting research perspectives for NACLIM.

Almada is located near to Lisbon, on the other side of the Tagus River. With a population of the order of 100,000 inhabitants, Almada is smaller than Antwerp or Berlin, but it is considered part of the greater Lisbon area, which is of course much larger. Of the three NACLIM end-user cities, Almada is located the closest to the North Atlantic, at the coast.

Its location near the Atlantic Ocean on the one hand and near Lisbon on the other hand opens interesting research perspectives for NACLIM. For instance, we could consider a scenario in which Almada is put further inland, in order to find out about the (presumably mitigating) effect of the nearby ocean on urban heat stress. Also, we might consider a scenario in which the main Lisbon area is replaced by rural surfaces, in order to evaluate the effect of Lisbon in contributing to the heat island of the smaller urban areas in its immediate surroundings. This should yield interesting insights into the share of the urban heat island that is generated locally in such a (relatively) small satellite city, compared to what originates from the larger nearby urban agglomeration’s core. These effects can then again be compared to the variability arising from large-scale climate patterns.

Climate type

Mediterranean climate (“dry summer subtropical”, denoted Csa/Csb in the Köppen map), which is found mainly along the Mediterranean coastal areas, extending from Portugal to Greece and beyond, and of which Almada is a study case.

Challenges and goals

An overview of the main user requirements for mapping the impact of climate change on urban societies is given below. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is analysed for Almada. Almada's user requirements have been consolidated in 2013-2014:

Effect of the urban heat island (UHI) on urban planning both today and in the future;

Impacts of green roofs linked to potential green roof map/plan for each city for the timeframe 2030 - 2040 onwards;

Impacts of the change in albedo (reflectivity) of buildings (e.g. through change to green roof type);

Impacts of city expansion on climate change (e.g. projected Land Use Land Cover (LULC)).

2. Scenarios using projected population figures:

Effects of the densification of the population and development of new areas of settlement;

Impacts on the vulnerable population of the cities (e.g. focussing on young children in schools and areas of elderly populations).

3. Scenarios specific to end-users:

Impact of the city of Lisbon on the UHI effect in Almada.

Predicting/projecting scenarios up to 2100 will help Almada to produce future adaptation strategies downscaled from the VITO model outputs. The most interesting period for the scenarios is 2025-2045. The baseline situation (today) will be mapped using simulations over a 20-year period from 1986-2005 which is in line with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reporting periods.

In order to run the relevant scenarios Almada has agreed to provide NACLIM scientists with all necessary information when available (e.g. 3D city models, LULC information, on-going and planned urban projects, socio-economic data, etc.).