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Germany immigration

Contributor BigBlue80 points out the graph tweeted by @russian_market is from 2011 and points out emigration in Germany has actually fallen.

Emigration in 2008 was 734k while it was only 679k in 2011. Over the last decade the amount of people leaving Germany has been relatively steady at 600-700k.Immigration has however increased: From 682k in 2008, 960k in 2011 and 2012 it was 1.1 million (net migration 400-500k).

US housing starts rise

US housing starts and permits for future homes rose less than expected in July, suggesting higher mortgage rates could be slowing the housing market's momentum.

Housing starts increased 5.9% to 896,000 units in July and June's starts were revised up to 846,000 from 836,000.

However, the rise was lower than the expected 900,000.

Permits rose 2.7% in July to 943,000, slightly below the 945,000 expected.

Mortgage rates have risen in anticipation at the Fed's tapering of its quantatative easing, expected to start next month. Builders have also complained that there is a shortage of labour and building materials.

The quarterly FT/Economist Global Business Barometer revealed that 60 per cent of 1,500 top business people polled believe the re-election of the centre-right leader would improve their confidence in Europe's economic prospects. Just 16 per cent would be less confident in the region's financial future following a Merkel victory.

It quotes Merkel telling German television:

I believe that in Europe at the moment we have to take care to coordinate our competitiveness more closely. We don't have to do everything in Brussels. We can also consider whether we can give something back.

More euro-denominated bonds from Asian issuers?

Suggestions of a reduction to the US Fed's quantitative easing programme has pushed five-year yields to 1.53% today, from 0.65% in May. By comparison the yield on a five-year euro mid-swaps has gone to 1.19% from 0.61%.

Some Asian bond issuers are now suggesting more euro-denominated bonds could be issued as a result.

One banker told Reuters: “There is no talk of tapering in Europe, so interest rate volatility should be smaller than in the [US] Treasury market.”

Cross currency basis swaps from euros to dollars has also improved, meaning that funding in euros is becoming cheaper for the many Asian issuers that routinely swap back to dollars.

The Danish company accounts for 15% of the world's shipping container capacity. Maersk's profits still look healthy: it reported a $439m (£281m) profit for the second quarter of 2013, up from $227m a year earlier.

Shanghai market swings

Strange goings on on the Shanghai stock market today. The Shanghai Composite index closed 0.6% down, but not before an unexpected 6% surge in value earlier in the day.

Shanghai-listed Everbright Securities suspended trading of its shares and said it was investigating a problem with its operating system.

This morning, Everbright Securities strategic investment department's proprietary trading bureau had a problem when using its own arbitrage system. The company is investigating and dealing with the issue.

Oil prices ease off 4-month high

Investor worries over stimulus have also helped to bring down oil prices. Bloodshed in Egypt had sent the price of a barrel of Brent Crude to a four-month high of $111 on Thursday, but it has slipped back to $110.

Egypt is not a major oil supplier, but investors are worried that the unrest could destablise oil transport throughout the Middle East.

Egypt produces 728,000 barrels if oil a day, about 0.9% of global output, and accounts for 1.8% of the world's gas supply. BP has said their oil production in Egypt is unaffected, although Shell has closed its office for a few days.

Meanwhile Tunisia, the north African country that was the cradle of the Arab Spring, has had its credit rating cut. As Fast FT reports, Standard and Poors have downgraded Tunisia's sovereign rating by two notches from BB to B.

We view the popular legitimacy of Tunisia's transitional institutions as increasingly contested, jeopardizing the approval of a new constitution, holding of elections, and implementation of growth-promoting economic reforms.

Good morning

Welcome to our rolling coverage of the latest events across the eurozone, the financial markets and the global economy.

European markets are expected to open lower this morning, as investors remain jittery that the US Federal Reserve will start to cut its massive stimulus programme from September.

Asian markets are slightly down today, after the biggest one-day selloff in the Dow Jones and S&P 500 since June.

Investors remain fretful although members of the Fed say they are still making up their minds about cutting the $85bn bond-buying programme. A voting member of the monetary-policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee,James Bullard, said yesterday that he would like to see more data before reaching a decision.

But as Michael Hewson of CMC Markets observes, this is not stopping investors from selling stocks:

It would appear that the weight of expectation surrounding an imminent tapering of asset purchases, along with a host of disappointing company earnings announcements, has prompted markets into thinking that a September taper is pretty much a done deal.

What makes this conclusion all the more surprising is that apart from yesterday’s weekly jobless claims, the economic data was by and large pretty disappointing, coming in below expectations across the board.