Economic forecasters have been wrong so consistently in projecting the gains and losses in the job market that it has almost become a comedy to see what rationalization they’ll come up with next.

They don’t find it funny. Doug Porter, chief economist of BMO Nesbitt Burns, sounded quite defensive last Friday when the latest employment numbers came out. They showed a loss of 39,000 jobs in July — not the modest gain he and his colleagues had predicted. “Aside from providing great sport and serving as an embarrassment for forecasters, do the wild gyrations in monthly jobs actually mean anything for the economy? Not really,” he insisted.

Derek Burleton of TD likewise played down the unpredictability of the labour market. “While more outsized gains and losses in the coming months would not be surprising in light of the recent gyrations, history suggests that these bouts of heightened volatility tend to be temporary,” he said.

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist for CIBC, at least managed some wit. “We’re starting to get a case of neck straining following the wildly bouncing ball of Canadian employment data.”

Within a few hours a consensus emerged that the disappointing job numbers weren’t as alarming as they looked. Despite July’s job losses, the long-term trend was positive, the analysts pointed out. And all signs pointed to a pickup in the fall as the increasing economic strength in the United States spilled over the border.

First, the extraordinary volatility in the 2013 labour market is unlike any past period of turbulence. They all came during recessions or recoveries. At the moment, Canada is experiencing neither yet the numbers refuse to settle into any pattern. In January, Canada lost 22,000 jobs. In February, it gained 51,000. In March, they were all wiped out. Then in May, to forecasters’ astonishment, 95,000 new jobs were created, the largest single-month gain in 11 years. That was followed by a slight loss (400 jobs) in June and a larger plunge (39,400) in July.

“The evidence suggests that the current episode is unique relative to history,” Fong concluded.

Second, the principal driver keeps changing. First it was construction, then scientific and technical services, then retail and wholesale and now public administration. For eight months, there has been no discernible trend.

Fong examined all the conventional reasons — extreme weather, fluctuations in the housing market, global uncertainty, lack of business confidence, statistical error — and discounted most of them. So he entertained a couple of unconventional possibilities:

Could the labour supply be pitching and heaving because so many jobs are temporary, contract and casual? That made a certain amount of sense. With 12 per cent of the workforce being hired and let go every month, the likelihood of large swings in employment would increase.

Could government austerity be disrupting the labour market? That, too, fit the circumstance. With Ottawa, the provinces and the municipalities all shedding workers, what was traditionally a pillar of secure employment has become a source of instability.

Ultimately, Fong couldn’t pinpoint one overriding factor. But his research suggests that he and fellow economists might need to recalibrate the tools they’re using to gauge the strength of the job market. In the Canada of 2013, jobs sprout and die within months, workers string together short-term contracts and companies turn to temp agencies when they need labour.

It’s not just forecasters who are affected by the turbulence. Families base their spending decisions on the job outlook. Businesses base their hiring plans on labour conditions. Investment and pension fund managers watch which sectors are hiring and shedding employees. Policy-makers monitor jobs to set their fiscal direction.

The wisest course, Fong said, would be to use other indicators such as a six-month moving average or the Bank of Canada’s quarterly business outlook survey to assess the strength of the employment market.

Most analysts would agree. But they’re unlikely to break out of their monthly regimen. Come Sept. 6, when Statistics Canada publishes its next job report, they’ll be back at their pride-bruising game.

Next: Why the jobless rate feels worse than it looks

Carol Goar's column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

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