Mike Roselli is a Chicago-based attorney and sports analyst. He runs "The Doggy Juice Podcast" - an analytics-driven podcast that updates listeners on state-by-state sports betting legalization and helps them find value on the betting boards.

Early money drove the Chiefs up to a 9.5-point favorite against the visiting Texans ahead of Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round matchup at Arrowhead Stadium (3:05 p.m. ET/2:05 p.m. CT, CBS).
Kansas City is 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 home playoff games, but bettors were all over the AFC’s No. 2 seed in early trading, pushing a point spread that opened as low as -7 offshore into double digits at some books by the middle of the week.
The Chiefs (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) are peaking at the perfect time, winning and covering the spread in six straight contests and going 4-1 ATS in their last five at home. Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes and the potent offense get most of the credit, but a defense that held opponents to 17 or fewer points in its last five games is a major reason why the team outperformed market expectations down the stretch.
The Kansas City defense surrendered just 31 total points in its final four games of the regular season (7.75 points per game) and was fourth in the NFL in opponent yards per play over its final three. The unit stayed below the radar throughout the second half of the 2019 campaign, helping explain why the betting total has gone UNDER in five of the Chiefs' last six games.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has a track record of excelling with extra time to prepare. His teams are 22-4 SU and 17-9 ATS all-time off a regular-season or playoff bye. Also, the UNDER has cashed in 20 of those 26 games. In Reid's time with the Chiefs, his teams are 4-1 ATS in home games with extra prep time, holding opponents to an average of 5.2 points per game.
Mahomes dealt with midseason knee and ankle injuries, sitting out two full games before returning in Week 10 against the Titans, when his team coughed up a late lead in a 35-32 defeat. Since that loss, the Chiefs have been world-beaters, going undefeated and outscoring opponents by a whopping 136-48 margin over their final five contests.
Sunday's total sits at 51 after opening 49 on most betting boards. UNDER bettors have cashed in Houston’s last four road games. If the number gets up to 52, then we will be looking to get behind Reid's remarkable bye-week UNDER trend and grab ourselves a ticket.
__MORE:__ [Divisional Round trends, tips](https://www.betchicago.com/nfl-divisional-round-betting-trends-tips-playoffs) | [Super Bowl futures strategy](https://www.betchicago.com/super-bowl-54-betting-strategy-moneyline-futures)
Houston (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS including playoffs) enters Sunday’s matchup following an emotional come-from-behind win against the Bills in the wild-card round. Coach Bill O’Brien is tasked with quickly shifting his team’s focus to a rested Chiefs squad that is No. 2 in total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), according to [Football Outsiders](https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-18-dvoa-ratings). The Texans are on a 6-3 ATS run as underdogs, but they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS cover.
Bettors should pay attention to the status of Texans wide receiver Will Fuller as kickoff approaches. It is [uncertain](https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/news/texans-bill-obrien-keeping-will-fullers-injury-status-close-to-his-vest) whether the 25-year-old speedster will suit up, but his presence would help spread out the Kansas City secondary, giving QB Deshaun Watson a major deep-threat downfield.
These teams met Week 6 in Houston. The Texans (+3.5) prevailed 31-24 at Arrowhead in a game where the Chiefs had no answer for the Houston running game, which racked up 192 yards on 41 carries. But Mahomes was already dealing with injury issues at that time.
The Chiefs bring the experience edge in this spot, having made it to this round the past two seasons. Although the number has gotten away a bit, Kansas City laying the points at home is the only side we would consider in this one.
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