October 2012 Sales: What the Headlines Don't Tell You

Without argument, Hurricane Sandy was the news story for October, overshadowing even the final weeks of a presidential campaign. We made an early assessment of Sandy’s impact on the auto industry right after the storm passed, and anticipate continued ramifications for the next few months. Before the storm, though, October was a high-volume month, and the […]

Justin Berkowitz

Nov 13, 2012

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Without argument, Hurricane Sandy was the news story for October, overshadowing even the final weeks of a presidential campaign. We made an early assessment of Sandy’s impact on the auto industry right after the storm passed, and anticipate continued ramifications for the next few months. Before the storm, though, October was a high-volume month, and the sales reflect it. Below, we dig into Honda’s efforts to clear out remaining stock of the 2012 Civic before the heavily face-lifted 2013 arrives at the end of November, look at the odds of a showdown between Cadillac’s sports sedans, and pull apart the disaster that has been Honda’s CR-Z. We’ll close by checking in with Mitsubishi, a brand that many think is facing an existential threat in the U.S.

Caddy-on-Caddy Violence

Cadillac CTS sales in October 2012: 2344 Amount by which this was lower than CTS sales in October 2011: 1574 Cadillac ATS sales in October 2012: 1266 Audi A4 sales: 2740 Infiniti G sales: 3438 What the numbers reveal: Cadillac may run into serious trouble when dealers are fully stocked with the ATS line, which still is midway through its launch. The new sports sedan could well cannibalize sales from the CTS: The ATS is sharper to drive, cheaper, and more fuel efficient. Any ATS scooped up instead of a CTS means lower profits for Cadillac. Although the ATS’s rear seat is nearly uninhabitable, that may not be an issue for most buyers. Yuppies and empty nesters often don’t care about back seats, while family buyers probably have an SUV in the garage already.

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Civics Lesson

Date on which the face-lifted 2013 Civic begins arriving at dealers: November 29 Sales of the Civic in October 2012: 20,687 Sales of the Civic during the first 10 months of 2012: 254,716 Percent increase this represents over the first 10 months of 2011: 39 Rank of the Civic among passenger car sales this year: 4 What the numbers reveal: Incredible deals on the Civic have supercharged sales during the past few weeks, but even before then, Honda’s compact car moved in phenomenal volume—in spite of flaws so serious that the face lift we’ll be seeing later this month was moved ahead from its original 2014 launch date. The megasales show two trends. First, that the Civic has become a default choice for people downsizing their vehicles. Second, that the Volkswagen Jetta isn’t a fluke. Lots of buyers want cars that are merely big and fuel-efficient; those shoppers aren’t so interested in interior fit-and-finish, sportiness, an intangible premium feel, or sexy styling.

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Honda’s Salesproof Hybrids

Combined sales of the four Toyota Prius models during October 2012: 16,774 Combined sales of the Honda Civic hybrid, Insight, and CR-Z during the first 10 months of 2012: 15,117 Percentage by which Insight sales declined this year compared to the first 10 months of 2011: 65 Percentage by which CR-Z sales declined: 62 What the numbers reveal: Honda is a bit player in the hybrid market, and is at risk of being permanently marginalized. Toyota and Lexus account for nearly 75 percent of the hybrids sold so far this year; Honda and Acura for 4 percent. Of the top 10 top-selling models so far this year, seven were Toyotas or Lexuses. The Accord hybrid probably will do well, but for Honda to stay on anyone’s radar, it’ll need a product that leapfrogs the competition and is well-marketed. Best of luck.

Mitsubishi, Eclipsed

Mitsubishi sales in the U.S. in October 2012: 3981 Some of the vehicles that, individually, outsold the entire Mitsubishi brand in October 2012: Jeep Liberty, Jeep Patriot, Nissan Maxima, Subaru Forester, Chevy Sonic, BMW 5-series Mitsubishi sales during the first 10 months of 2011: 70,253 Mitsubishi sales during the first 10 months of this year: 50,103 Percent decrease this represents: 29 Number of brands that experienced a worse decline over the same period of time: 0 What the numbers reveal: Mitsubishi may have no choice but to follow Suzuki in withdrawing from the U.S. market. The days of pocket-rocket Eclipses and luxurious Diamantes are long over, with the company’s brand image all-but dead—only the Evo has any equity, and it’s going to be killed by 2014—and only three gasoline-powered models are on sale in the U.S. The chart above shows Mitsubishi’s once-high sales, but the company has been in a near-perpetual state of disaster for the past 20 years.