Kelly McParland: Andrea Horwath's price for budget support is to dictate its contents

The main web page of the Ontario NDP features three photos of leader Andrea Horwath. It could probably afford to skip at least one of them, and replace it with an enormous ear dangling over the province, in NDP orange.

Ontario’s New Democrats are warning they are prepared to trigger an election if the minority Liberal government raises taxes in the spring budget.

The Progressive Conservatives want an election as soon as possible, so if the Liberals can’t secure another deal with the NDP, the budget — and the government — will be defeated.

Premier Kathleen Wynne has said the Liberals want to find new sources of revenue to fund public transit and to create an Ontario Pension Plan, which would require payments from workers and employers.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath has written Wynne warning that she “will not support any new taxes, tolls or fees that hit middle-class families.”

Horwath has made a fetish of her determination to “listen to Ontarians.” It’s almost impossible to get an opinion out of her on anything substantial on most days, because every response reverts to her determination to “listen to the voters.” She’s been listening for two years now, ever since voters reduced the Liberals to a minority government. All that time she’s been propping up the government, while demanding concessions which she says the government hasn’t delivered. That’s a lot of listening and a lot of propping for not much in return.

Now Ms. Horwath appears to have finally heard a message. The people of Ontario are telling her they want her to dictate budget terms to the Liberals. They want her in a position so powerful she has the ability to override Liberal priorities. If Kathleen Wynne wants to remain in power, she’ll have to let Ms. Horwath call the tune on the economy.

It’s hard to reach any other conclusion after reading the letter Ms. Horwath sent the premier in response to Ms. Wynne’s recent request for opposition input on the budget. The Liberals’ record over 10 years in office, she says, stinks.

“Over the last 10 years, your government has asked middle-class families to pay more and more even while reducing taxes for some of Ontario’s wealthiest corporations and planning new tax cuts for the province’s wealthiest individuals.”

“The government’s current plan for the coming years includes: planned corporate tax cuts; a new corporate tax loophole that will allow Ontario’s wealthiest corporations to write off entertainment and other expenses; and the elimination of the Fairness Tax.”

“People feel their concerns are being ignored. They see the tax dollars they send to Queen’s Park wasted on everything from politically motivated gas plant cancellations — at a cost to taxpayers of about $1.1 billion — to million-dollar bonuses for public sector CEOs who get rewarded for failure with golden parachutes.”

The Fairness Tax is a soak-the-rich measure forced on the Liberals in return for NDP support for an earlier budget. It’s just one of several pledges Ms. Horwath accuses the Liberals of trying to wiggle out of. They haven’t succeeded in bringing down auto insurance rates, she says, and they still have not introduced a “financial accountability office” they promised.

Still, she’s willing to give them one more chance. She might — just might — consider support for the next budget, but only if Ms. Wynne abandons one of the key planks in her reelection platform. The Premier, as Ms. Horwath notes, has made it clear she’s willing to ask voters to support a menu of new taxes and tolls to pay for improved transit. No way, says the NDP leader.

“I will not support any new taxes, tolls or fees that hit middle-class families,” she writes. Jacking up corporate taxes would be acceptable (jacking up corporate costs is always acceptable to the NDP, who still haven’t made the link between jobs and investment), but that’s it.

It puts Ms. Wynne in a pickle. “My objective is not to work within Andrea Horwath’s parameters,” she told radio host John Moore in an interview on Tuesday. But if she wants to avoid an election, she doesn’t have much choice. She has already committed herself to the transit pledge to the extent that backing down could be politically fatal. Voters will wonder why they should bother backing a Liberal government if it’s run by the NDP. Every serious evaluation of transit needs in the greater Toronto area has recognized that people will have to pay some of the costs; the expense is just too great to handle otherwise. Ms. Wynne, to her credit, is the first politician brave enough to accept that fact and claim willingness to let the voters be the judge. If she backs down now, she loses not only her government’s credibility, but her own.

While Ms. Horwath’s position suggests she’s finally gathered the courage to pick a position, it’s a curious one to take. New Democrats, as a breed, are generally big on public transit. It’s viewed as good for the environment, and beneficial to working families. It supposedly gets big emissions-spewing vehicles off the road. Yet Ms. Horwath has treated Liberal proposals with a decided grumpiness: she objected to a proposal to expand the network of high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, because Ontario left-wingers hold the curious belief that only rich people use those lanes. Now she’s holding other transit users hostage to a demand that seems impossible to meet. Tellingly, her position allies her with Toronto’s much-mocked mayor, Rob Ford, who also insists Toronto can build a big new transit system without developing any serious plans to pay for it.

If Ms. Wynne really wants to stimulate investment, increasing costs is a weird way to go about it.

Ms. Wynne says her number one priority as premier is to boost the economy and create jobs. A string of factory closures has embarrassed the government by underlining just how unattractive the province has become to investors. High power rates are already a big problem, thanks to the Liberals’ ill-starred effort to force-feed the province with an alternative energy scheme. Raising corporate tax rates can only aggravate the situation. Ms. Wynne recently announced a rise in minimum wages, and is also touting plans to introduce a second mandatory pension plan on top of the Canada Pension Plan, which would siphon yet more money from individual paycheques. If Ms. Wynne really wants to stimulate investment, increasing costs is a weird way to go about it.

So the bottom line is this: Ms. Wynne can’t really back down, nor can Ms. Horwath. They both say they’re willing to talk, but what’s there to discuss? Unless one is prepared to cave to the other, the chat will necessarily be brief.

Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak has been agitating for an election ever since the last one. Looks like he’s finally going to get his wish. Either that or Andrea Horwath becomes de facto premier, holding the power if not the title.

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