Most Fed officials said they expected to wait until 2015 and to move gradually once rate increases begin. But based on the stock market’s action, investors appear to be questioning whether a rate increase could happen sooner.

As for the VIX, it still remains well below normal levels despite Thursday’s surge. The VIX is calculated from the prices investors are willing to pay for options tied to the S&P 500. Those options are often used to hedge stock investments because of the way they tend to rise as stocks fall.

The VIX has a long-run average of around 20. Excluding a brief period in early February, it has been below 20 all year long.

Two weeks ago, the VIX surged 32% on the day that a Malaysia Airlines plane was shot down and Israel sent troops into Gaza. That marked the VIX’s biggest one-day gain in 15 months and only the 22nd time since 1990 that it surged more than 30% in a single day.

But even on that day, the VIX only reached 14.54. And that rally proved to be a one-day wonder as the VIX gave up nearly all those gains less than week later.

With the VIX up again on Thursday, the question is whether the rally proves to be another head fake or a precursor for a pickup in future volatility.