Historic enemies pause at crossroads to peace

Published: Saturday, December 30, 2000

JERUSALEM {AP} After almost a decade of stop-and-go negotiations repeatedly set back by flashes of violence, Israel and the Palestinians have arrived at a crossroads of excruciating choices in an atmosphere electric with fear, hope, anger and confusion.

The Israelis have accepted, with reservations, a U.S.-proposed peace plan, and progress seems to rest in the hands of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who is sticking to the Palestinians' demand that up to 4 million refugees and their descendants be allowed to return to homes they fled, or were driven from, in the 1948 war that established Israel.

In recent days, Arafat has come under tremendous pressure to accept President Clinton's proposal. The Palestinian leader has received, according to one Palestinian official who spoke on condition of anonymity, some 50 phone calls, many from Arab and Western leaders, urging him to accept the terms.

But even if he does, the result is far from certain. Neither side trusts the other, and implementation, including a jigsaw-puzzle division of Jerusalem and the West Bank, will be complicated, and internal opposition will be tremendous.

If peace comes, said Israeli Ehud Yaari, an Arab affairs expert, it will be for both sides "a peace of broken dreams."

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has abandoned almost all his negotiating positions and slaughtered a series of sacred cows: Israel would likely give up holy sites cherished by Jews the world over, withdraw from the strategic Jordan River Valley and dismantle settlements.

But he has stood firm on the refugees' "right of return," a notion that appears to stand no hope of being accepted by Israelis who fear a flood of impoverished Arabs would overwhelm the country's 5 million Jews and utterly change its character.

Many Israelis in the increasingly exasperated pro-peace camp are speculating that the Palestinians may simply be negotiating hard and will come around before two looming deadlines: the Feb. 6 Israeli election for prime minister, and, just as important, the Jan. 20 end of Clinton's term.

If those dates pass without an agreement, some feel it will be a grand opportunity lost.

Barak is under pressure to reach a deal before the election, which he could then present to voters as a referendum on his peace plan.

President-elect Bush's administration will likely be preoccupied with other issues, and Barak is trailing badly in opinion polls to right-wing opposition leader Ariel Sharon, who staunchly opposes most, if not all of the Israeli concessions now under consideration.