Get Your Bets In! Nobel Prize For Economics Announced Tomorrow

Tomorrow's the big day -- the day the
Nobel Foundation announces its pick for the field
of economics. Now technically, it's not one of the
official five Nobel Prizes (Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or
Medicine, Literature, and Peace), but for all purposes, it is
(note: just wanted to pre-empt anyone who was going to make that
point in the comments.)

We have no idea who's going to win, but if you have a hunch you
can bet on it. UK site
Ladbrokes has Eugene Fama as
the favorite, at 2/1. As the
WSJ's Real-Time Economics blog points out, the selection of
Fama, at this point, would be an ironic choice, given the current
market conditions and his having been a key player in pushing the
idea of efficient markets. (Of course, in our experience, ardent
believers in efficient markets find a way to make any situation
fit their thesis).

Over at
PinnacleSports, Martin
Feldstein is running as strong candidate. Feldstein would
also be an ironic choice, as an advocate of Social Security
privatization. Talk about an idea that holds zero
political currency right now.

Now anyone can bet at both Pinnacle and Ladbrokes, so if you want
to narrow it down to smartest of smart money, there's actually a
Harvard Nobel Pool. Greg Mankiw says
the favorite there is Robert Barro,
who happens to be a prof. at Harvard. (Some hometown bias
perhaps?). Barro's work has focused on areas like monetary policy
and central banks.

Bottom line here: We're not sensing much consensus, which is
pretty typical when you're deal with a secretive group that can
use whatever standards it likes.