Not exactly the voice inside your head

Have we misread the world?

Read a post on Andrew Sullivan wondering why there hadn’t been another 9/11. Here’s my take (sent him an email):

I can think of a good reason why America hasn’t been attacked since 9/11, because to do so would be a strategic mistake in Al Queda’s military struggle against the USA. Al Queda’s war aim at the start of all this was to provoke the USA to attacking them in a place (Afghanistan, and latterly Iraq) where our advantages would be nullified and they would be able to bleed us out in a war of attrition. Basically they want to repeat their successful struggle with the USSR. Within this framework they have actually been very rational, despite their religious zealotry. Their “big picture” aim, that by defeating America they cause regimes across the Middle East to collapse and a new caliphate to rise from the ashes is obviously a little bit less rational. At the moment this strategy is working, the war has turned into a war of attrition and America is losing patience, mostly because for us a withdrawal wouldn’t be a defeat the way it would be a victory for them.
So how would a terrorist attack on the USA help this strategy? It wouldn’t, it would just make Americans more determined, we might even get angry enough to raise taxes or bring back the draft, and thats the last thing they want. Because if we did that their strategy would fail. You don’t win a war of attrition by making your opponent more determined.
So when will the next terrorist attack on America take place? I’d say the ideal time from their point of view would be when America pulls its troops out of Iraq or Afghanistan. We’ll have declared victory and will be trying to make it look like we are leaving because we won, a terrorist attack on America, (launched of course from whichever country we just pulled out of) would be the best way to make it look like they were the victors. And thats what these men want, they are warriors and they want to win a war.