Our guess: The crowd is right, and that we'll only get a change
in language, but no QEIII.

Here's why:

The economy still appears to be getting better. Citi's
Economic Surprise Index has gone positive, and continues to rise.

Unemployment fell to 8.1%. You might say this is meaningless,
since it was a result of people leaving the workforce, but that
doesn't change the fact that if the workforce is shrinking that
rapidly, then the labor pool is marginally closer to full
employment, thus creating inflation risk. The Fed might also
wonder (as others have) whether the weak NFP number was the
result of a bad seasonal adjustment, rather than an underlying
reflection of the economy (other labor market indices were quite
solid during the month).

Meanwhile, the ECB just did the #1 thing that was needed for
the global economy by taking the tail risk off the table with its
bond buying program. That's FAR more important and impactful than
anything the Fed could do right now.

In the post Michael Woodford-era (Woodford being the
economist who advocated NGDP targeting at the recent Jackson Hole
conference), the Fed might feel as though a language change is
the more robust move it can make.

The bar is probably high due to the electoral scrutiny.
Easing in December will be much more palatable, and the Fed will
also have more clarity as to how the Fiscal Cliff will be
resolved.

Asset prices are at multi-year highs, and again, with the
help of the ECB, financial conditions are quite easy.

Anyway, this is just our conjecture. It's probably going to be a
close call, but the factors above tip the odds of a balance sheet
expansion to a point in the future.