Answers

The January
20 testimony of Lawrence Gershwin, a senior intelligence officer,
before a subcommittee of the U.S.House of Representatives reveals:

"Regarding world trade and oil: some of our most important trading
partners have been documentedby, among others, the Gartner Group, as
behind the US in fixing their Y2K problems (China and Japan, for
example). Significant oil exporters to the United States and the
global market include a number of countriesVenezuela, Saudi Arabia,
Mexico, Nigeria, Angola, and Gabonthat are lagging in their Y2K
remediation efforts. Oil production is largely in the hands of
multi-national corporations in the oil-producing countries, but this
sector is highly intensive in the use of information technology and
complex systems using embedded processors, and is highly dependent on
ports, ocean shipping, and domestic infrastructures."

"The industry is fraught with potential Y2K problems. Embedded
microprocessors are found throughout in the oil industry in drilling,
pumping, transportation, processing, and refining operations.
A typical offshore platform or onshore gas plant reportedly uses
50-100 embedded systems, each containing up to 10,000 individual
microchips. While the industry has been actively involved in
remediation, planning for remediation of a single offshore platform
can reportedly involve up to 60 different vendors. We are concerned
about the shipping of oil products, because ocean shipping and
foreign ports have both been flagged as among the least prepared
sectors."

And also, the following relevant information was taken from GAO's
(Goverment Accounting Office) Joel Willemssen's Jan 20, 99 statement:

Related to the power sector are the oil and gas industries. An
August 1998 survey of these industries by the Presidents Council on
Year 2000 Conversions oil and gas working group, in conjunction with
the American Petroleum Institute, the Interstate Natural Gas
Association of America, the American Gas Association, and other
industry groups found that, for their business systems and associated
software, (1) 45 percent of respondents were in the planning,
inventory, or assessment phases, (2) 36 percent were in the
remediation phase, and (3) 19 percent were in the validation phase. In
regard to embedded systems, (1) 60 percent of respondents were in the
planning, inventory, or assessment phases, (2) 26 percent were in the
remediation phase, and (3) 14 percent were in the validation
phase.

Based on this August 1998 data, the best that be said is "We don't know whether there is an industry-wide crisis there, or only a crisis in a few specific companies.

Clearly, though, not all will be compliant if you project the earlier numbers, but until a real trend is known (based new data counting "company testing complete" and counts of "company inventory complete") "we don't know" is the only valid answer.

The inability to get fuel pumped, refined and distributed could
easily be a major cause of the recession, depression or whatever. I
read a month or so ago that the imbedded chips in refineries are
difficult to test without shutting down the whole thing and it would
be cheaper to build a new refinery than to test the existing
systems. The kicker is that it takes 5 years to design and build a
new one and the problem was not recognized 5 years ago. So how many
oil companies will have new compliant refineries ready to go on line
within the next year? Few if any are likely. It is not likely that
all of the links in the chain (oil well, pipelines, refineries,
distribution systems and even the corner gas station) will be fixed.
All of the old style stations were shut down by December 1998 thanks
to EPA so that these tanks would not leak into the groundwater. So
most remaining stations are highly computerized and can not even be
pumped if a generator is attached if they are not remmediated. The
only way to get around the system is to shove a hoze down the fill
pipe and pump the fuel out with a portable pump. This is not a
practical solution and this gas would be gone in a week or less.
There are no easy answers. Murphy's law (everything that can go
wrong will) and the law of unintended consequences appear to be in
full force here. I would not be buying a new car this year.

I don't think we will have a problem with our refineris here, because
they will be non-existant in this country if the king has his way.

Or we will need a second form of income to by fuel.

A snipet:

WASHINGTON -- The Clinton administration's $1.77 trillion budget
proposal unveiled Monday would sock the oil and gas industry with
billions of dollars worth of new or previously expired taxes at a time
when producers are suffering through the worst slump since the Oil
Bust.