California's primary votes could decide nominees on Super Tuesday

Jan. 27, 2008

Updated Aug. 21, 2013 1:17 p.m.

1 of 1

Two women vote in the California primary at an early drop-in voting site in San Francisco, Friday, Jan. 18. Presidential candidates are turning cartwheels to lock in early votes, but in an election campaign as volatile as this one, people have to decide whether it makes sense to vote too far ahead. MARCIO JOSE SANCHEZ, AP

Two women vote in the California primary at an early drop-in voting site in San Francisco, Friday, Jan. 18. Presidential candidates are turning cartwheels to lock in early votes, but in an election campaign as volatile as this one, people have to decide whether it makes sense to vote too far ahead. MARCIO JOSE SANCHEZ, AP

Now it matters.

We've heard before that California might be in play, could be in play, etc., in a presidential election.

A week from Tuesday, Californians could actually decide the nominees of both political parties.

Am I overstating it? Maybe. But judging by the activities of the candidates so far, they must think it's a possibility.

The California coordinators of the major presidential hopefuls all say they have established ground games, including phone banking to permanent absentees who have been voting for a couple of weeks now. They all noted that their candidates will be in the state at least once before the primary.

So far, political experts say, there hasn't been the all out blitz of campaigning a la New Hampshire, South Carolina or even Florida.

But with the Democrats out of South Carolina and the Republicans due out of Florida by Tuesday, attention will turn to the 24 contests next week.

It helps that the last debates before Super Duper Tuesday will be in California - the GOP's at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley on Wednesday and the Democratic one at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles on Thursday. That already brings the candidates into the state, gives them free media coverage in the expensive Los Angeles market and allows the state directors here to make a good case that their candidates stay and do a couple of campaign events.

In the past, conventional wisdom has said that because the media markets in California are so expensive and we're such a big state, candidates would do well to concentrate their money and time in smaller, less expensive states where they can get the best bang for their buck.

But the calculus is different this year. Why? Two numbers: 441 and 173. Those are the delegates at stake in the Democratic and Republican primaries.

The GOP is a closed primary. Only Republicans can vote. The delegates are winner-take-all by congressional district. So whoever wins the popular vote in each congressional district gets three delegates. It will pay to win statewide because another 11 GOP delegates go to the popular vote victor. Then three more delegate spots are reserved for California party leaders. The 173 delegates at stake in California represent about 15 percent of the 1,191 delegates needed for the GOP nomination.

Now the Democrats.

California is the big prize for the Democrats. The 441 delegates at stake represent about 22 percent of the 2025 needed to get nominated.

They allocate 241 of the 441 by congressional district. But it's not winner-take-all. Any candidate who gets at least 15 percent of the vote in a congressional district can get delegates. The number of delegates each district gets is between three and six. It's based on population and how the Democratic candidate did in that district in the last two elections.

Then 129 delegates are apportioned based on the statewide popular vote. Then on May 18, the remaining 71 delegate slots are given to party leaders and elected representatives. Got it?

Oh, and as if the rules aren't complicated enough, Democrats have decided to let independents vote in their primary. Not so the Republicans.

What all this means is that candidates are playing delegate math in California and looking to get the most bang for their buck.

For example, I was talking to Jack Pitney, a political-science professor at Claremont-McKenna College. Pitney and his wife are enrolled Republicans and are permanent absentee voters. A target rich environment you'd think.

But Pitney told me that he hasn't gotten one piece of mail from any GOP candidate. Why? He speculated that because he lives in David Dreier's district, which has lots of Republicans, it makes more sense for the GOP hopefuls to target Democratic-heavy districts because there are fewer Republicans for them to persuade to vote for them. If you have 100,000 GOP voters, you need to get 50,001 to win the district. But if you only have 20,000 you have to get way fewer votes.

"I imagine the four or five Republicans who live in Diane Watson's (Los Angeles) district probably are getting lots of mail,'' Pitney said.

Same goes for the Democrats. When I asked Rep. Loretta Sanchez, who is going all out for Hillary Rodham Clinton now that she's endorsed the New York senator, about strategy, she said she is going to be trolling for votes not only in her Democratic district but in the five other Orange County districts where not as many Democrats live.

Why all this concentration on delegates?

Up to now the name of the game has been momentum. As a candidate wins each state they hope to use that bounce to win in the next state.

This year, of course, that rule hasn't exactly worked. Huckabee won Iowa. McCain won New Hampshire. Obama wins Iowa. Clinton wins New Hampshire.

But candidates were still fighting for wins.

"On Feb. 5th we make the transition from winning states to winning delegates,'' uncommitted Democratic strategist Bill Carrick explained to me the other day.

So far, Democrats are on television first in the Golden State. No surprise there. In another fact that turns conventional wisdom on its head, Democrats are out fundraising Republicans nationally, even though not so in Orange County. Check out Follow the Money on www.ocregister.com presidential election page to look at financial giving in the nation, Orange County and California.

Television spots were aired first in Northern California. Not because there are more Democrats in the north, but because historically, northern Californians cast absentee and early ballots in greater numbers than here in the south.

Political experts differ on how important those 30-second television spots are.

"They need to spend money,'' Pitney says. "You can't win this state on the cheap.''

But Sen. Barbara Boxer, who is uncommitted, told me recently that she would advise the candidates to make targeted personal appearances in the state and rely as much as they can on free media.

The individual California campaign chiefs are understandably being coy about their strategies.

John McCain's campaign spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker said their spending decisions are made on a daily basis. McCain will do some California events around the debate and maybe come to Orange County. We'll keep you posted on our All Things Presidential blog.

Clinton's California coordinator Ace Smith talked about all the time Clinton, President Clinton and daughter Chelsea Clinton have already spent here. Clinton has either a campaign office or county committee in every county in California. They've been doing serous phone banking and some social networking and even precinct walking. Sanchez was due to pop in at a Santa Ana phone bank Saturday.

Romney's guy said they have been using volunteer activists to target specific congressional districts. Rob Stutzman, a long time political operative in California, said they are seeing that the absentee votes are being returned slower than usual this election. With the GOP field churning so, he believes many people may be waiting to see who's still standing after Florida before voting.

Obama's California spokeswoman said they have 223 organizing teams in all 53 counties in the state. Their phone banks were up and going by early October, concentrating first on the permanent absentee voters, all of whom have been called by the campaign at least once. They have about 180,000 California volunteers registered on their Web site.

We've heard talk before about how much attention campaigns promise to give California. It sounds like this year really will be different.

User Agreement

Keep it civil and stay on topic. No profanity, vulgarity, racial
slurs or personal attacks. People who harass others or joke about
tragedies will be blocked. By posting your comment, you agree to
allow Orange County Register Communications, Inc. the right to
republish your name and comment in additional Register publications
without any notification or payment.