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If Global Warming is Inevitable, Relax & Observe It

I can’t say ‘enjoy it’, since I have children and g-kids who might find it difficult. But from an Atmospheric Scientist standpoint, I’m looking forward to observing the data. It will be satisfying to see the model predictions evolve; relief if they don’t.

It will become obvious. We understand the “natural” cycles; the diurnal cycle (the earth’s a spinning ball), the annual cycle (earth’s orbit and tilt angle determine it), the Milankovich cycle (perturbations in the orbit and tilt determine the glacial/interglacial 100,000-year cycle), the El Nino/La Nina cycle(at least partly), and the sunspot cycle (11-years, tho it comes and goes in maybe 50-year cycles; we do know the relatively small amount of radiation change — and it’s at a minimum/cold about now.)

And we understand a lot about the new perturbation — record breaking CO2 increases bearing the fingerprint of fossil fuel consumption with its effect as a greenhouse gas (At. Sci 101); and the consequent warming and changes in storms, ice distribution, ocean acidification, etc. We have mathematical models that have done well in reproducing long-term observed global climate when initialized with observed data, and tell us what to expect as present data (including increased CO2) is used as input. We have good global temperature and CO2 measurements, so we’ll soon know (10-years? — very soon for a geophysicist).

For those who for some reason fear the science so much that they deny it, my advice is: just ‘Get over it’. Relax. If your faith is right, and the science is wrong, you will be safe, satisfied & secure in your religion. If you’re wrong, perhaps you can join the (mostly) Republicans who bear some responsibility for our lack of action to stop fossil fuel consumption or making preparations for the consequences. Like accepting liability for most of Florida disappearing (just one change) and paying some small part of the $trillion losses? We can look at the car registrations and SUV drivers will pay double, Leaf drivers half.

Anyway, might as well relax. The battle for GW belief is mostly over, and denying has won in our democracy. The model predictions will evolve. The predictions (like 60% some comfort & economic problems, 10% negligible, 10% catastrophic changes) are from quite conservative scientists — they’ve underestimated warming/change effects so far. Let’s hope they forgot some obscure factor that makes them an overestimate this time.

So relax. A bit. But my guess is you’ll feel better in the future if you turn out the lights and turn off the furnace.

Note: This is a seattlepi.com reader blog. It is not written or edited by the P-I. The authors are solely responsible for content. E-mail us at newmedia@seattlepi.com if you consider a post inappropriate..