Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Three-Wave Structures

I see so many three-wave structures in so many different time frames from 5 min charts to weekly and monthly ones that it's hard to move away from a higher bias at this time.

As I said the other day, I am constructive on the S&P 500 as long as 1411.88 holds. If this level breaks, things could get complicated. 1400, 1395, 1383, and 1346 could then be on the table.

Given the multitude of three-wave structures though, I'm leaning toward another triangle or rising wedge that resolves higher. This is not to say that lower numbers such as 1420 or 1416 can't get tested today. Price sits in the mid range of 1448-1411.88. Testing the lower end of this range is expected in the case of a triangle or a wedge

All it takes is one three-wave structure to morph into a five-wave structure for the entire game to change, so I'm not being complacent.

There is still ample political risk in the market, higher and lower. Expect it to continue as we edge closer to New Year's Eve.

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