The Fantastic 50: Week 6 League Championship Possibilities

Based on at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, here’s the most likely outcomes of conference championship races. Yep. You read that right. How cool? Very. Thanks to math guru Drew Pasteur, heading into the halfway point we can already breakdown the conference and league championship odds. Every Ohio race is broken down…

We know how much Ohio high school football fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at. Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster, we’re proud to offer Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the Fantastic 50?
The Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams, regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules, so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a 21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams, provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system, an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games. Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where he was a high school teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has published a North Carolina version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects postseason participants.