Archive for September, 2012

Navigating the Risks: Executive Summary: Guy Carpenter is pleased to present our mid-year report on the global insurance and reinsurance sector, Overcoming Key Risks on the Road to Profitable Growth. In this report we outline three key risks to the sector: economic uncertainty and emerging interest rate sensitivity, the shifting nature of catastrophe losses and reserving risk.

“Cold Spot” Catastrophe Losses Reveal Potential Emerging Market Risks, According to Guy Carpenter Report:Guy Carpenter published a new report that offers insight into catastrophe risks in developing economies and how they are likely to affect the (re)insurance sector as companies target growth opportunities in these new markets, including emerging Asia and Latin America. According to Cold Spots Heating Up: The Impact of Insured Catastrophe Losses in New Growth Markets, growth opportunities in emerging economies pose a unique set of challenges to (re)insurers.

Catastrophe Bonds* at July 1, 2012:Catastrophe bonds continue to play an increasingly important role in the property catastrophe risk transfer market with particularly robust issuance levels. During the first six months of 2012, 15 transactions came to market, totaling USD3.4 billion of risk principal. In terms of risk principal, this is a 113 percent increase relative to the first half of 2011. Risk principal outstanding now stands at USD13.5 billion, within striking distance of the high water mark of USD14 billion established in 2007 after the post-Katrina-Rita-Wilma issuance surge.

*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

Although (re)insurers’ investments in higher-grade fixed income securities have calmed nerves for now, it is only logical to expect an increase in interest rate sensitivity for portfolios with lower yields to maturity. This creates the potential for negative balance sheet impacts should interest rates rise suddenly. Continue reading…

David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice PresidentContact

A prominent effect of the global slowdown has been pressure on countries’ tax revenues and difficulty in financing national budgets. The southern European periphery and Ireland have been particularly susceptible to heightened risk premia. While Greece obtained a funding package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in March, it has been speculated that the likes of Spain and Italy are simply “too big to save” given current central bank and IMF resources in a similar event (1).

David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice PresidentContact

The Global Slowdown

As 2012 progresses, the global economy is in a worse state than previously thought, with growth expectations revised lower in many advanced and developing countries. In the United States, gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for 2012 have been revised downward from approximately 3 percent at the end of last year to 2 percent at present (1). This has contributed to stubbornly high U.S. unemployment, adding to fears of a “fiscal cliff” with tax increases and spending cuts set to kick in early next year.

Guy Carpenter is pleased to present our mid-year report on the global insurance and reinsurance sector, Overcoming Key Risks on the Road to Profitable Growth. In this report we outline three key risks to the sector: economic uncertainty and emerging interest rate sensitivity, the shifting nature of catastrophe losses and reserving risk. Guy Carpenter has dedicated extensive resources to understanding these risks and it is our objective to assist clients in overcoming the current challenges by deploying best-in-class risk management tools, reinsurance placement and strategic advisory services.

Guy Carpenter Details Top Risks for (Re)Insurance Industry in Mid-Year Market Report:Guy Carpenter released its mid-year market report, which addresses the top risks (re)insurers face as they seek profitable growth. The report, Overcoming Key Risks on the Road to Profitable Growth, provides a detailed analysis of three key risks to the sector: economic uncertainty and emerging interest rate sensitivity, the shifting nature of catastrophe losses and reserving risk.

“Cold Spot” Catastrophe Losses Reveal Potential Emerging Market Risks, According to Guy Carpenter Report: Guy Carpenter published a new report that offers insight into catastrophe risks in developing economies and how they are likely to affect the (re)insurance sector as companies target growth opportunities in these new markets, including emerging Asia and Latin America. According to Cold Spots Heating Up: The Impact of Insured Catastrophe Losses in New Growth Markets, growth opportunities in emerging economies pose a unique set of challenges to (re)insurers.

The Microfinance Market Today:The groundbreaking efforts by pioneers in the microfinance industry have already begun to yield substantial returns. Today, more than 150 million people worldwide have access to microcredit, the industry’s flagship product - roughly equivalent to half the population of the United States. From the perspective of microfinance institutions (MFIs), this growing market has been successful, as well.

*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

The Market ratings remain the principal measure of financial strength to be applied to operations underwriting at Lloyd’s, but several rating agencies separately provide syndicate-specific analysis. These analyses can support the reinsurance-buying decision-making process, but it is dangerous to rely on them without understanding the varying underlying methodologies. (None of these products are endorsed by Lloyd’s.)

The financial strength ratings assigned to Lloyd’s by S&P, A.M. Best and Fitch have been relatively stable in the 15 years since the first rating was assigned. During this period, the (re)insurance industry and Lloyd’s itself have undergone dramatic change as they responded to the major challenges of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, devastating US and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes and other natural catastrophes that occurred across the globe. The softening casualty insurance market and the global financial crisis also caused difficulties during this time. The current Lloyd’s ratings assigned by each rating agency are at their original levels - a significant achievement given that most of Lloyd’s peers have failed to recover their pre-2001 ratings.

Lloyd’s capacity is an estimated GBP24.0 billion at the start of 2012, showing continued growth. Lloyd’s capacity grew from GBP15.7 billion to GBP23.3 billion between 2007 and 2011, an increase of 48 percent. GWP in that time increased 43 percent to GBP23.5 billion.

Lloyd’s has a well-developed risk management framework. A number of committees provide oversight for the Market and detail what is required of members in terms of their own risk management. Lloyd’s is required to conduct an ICA for the Market as a whole, using the normal FSA risk categories to examine risks that are not captured within syndicate ICAs. This process aims to determine the level of capital required to be held centrally that can withstand a 1-in-200 year event over a one-year time frame. The Lloyd’s ICA is an important driver for the Council in determining the optimum level of central assets. Another key driver is the expectation that the costs of mutuality will be less than 1 percent of members’ GWP across the insurance cycle. The central assets target and the level of contributions are regularly reviewed in light of the Market’s current financial position and forecasted needs.