1.Teddy Bridgewater*Houston Texans (2-12)
COLLEGE: LouisvilleAGE: 21HT: 6-2WT: 220POS: QB
Analysis: This is a tough call right off the bat. I have Bridgewater ranked as the top quarterback prospect in this class, but just ninth overall. The question for the Texans is going to be this: Do you have a player at another position who grades out considerably higher? (Possibilities include Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews or South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney.) Because if not, given their need at QB and the importance of that position, my guess is that they'd talk themselves into taking Bridgewater -- or whichever QB ranks highest on their board in May.

Bridgewater has great football intelligence, is mentally and physically tough, and has proved he can beat opponents from inside the pocket; he can read defenses, has a quick release and is very accurate. If he isn't the top overall pick, it'll be because of questions about his durability. He'll also need to hold off UCF quarterback Blake Bortles during the draft process. Bortles isn't as polished as Bridgewater but does have a higher ceiling.

2.Jake MatthewsSt. Louis Rams (6-8) (From WAS)
COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 21HT: 6-5WT: 309POS: OT
Analysis: St. Louis owns this pick as part of the trade that brought Robert Griffin III to Washington during the 2012 draft. If this year's QB draft class were on the same level as that one, which had two elite prospects in RG III and Andrew Luck, then perhaps the Rams would consider taking a quarterback here. But I think that Sam Bradford can be the guy for them at QB when he's healthy, which is why they have to place a huge priority on keeping Bradford upright.

Enter Matthews, who has the pedigree, work ethic, durability and skills as both a run- and pass-blocker to be a very good player for St. Louis. He has the versatility to be plugged in at right tackle on day one opposite Jake Long, and to eventually replace Long at left tackle. With a healthy Bradford and improved offensive line, the Rams could be really good next season.

Analysis: The Raiders need to upgrade at the QB position, and even though he isn't the most well-known prospect, Bortles has the potential to be a top-10 pick. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if he ends up going ahead of Bridgewater.

Bortles has good size, arm strength and accuracy, and has proved he can win from inside the pocket. He also possesses good character and a strong football IQ. A nice bonus is that he's built to last in the NFL because he's big and mobile enough to move around. He isn't Cam Newton, but more of a cross between Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger.

4.Johnny Manziel*Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10)
COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 21HT: 6-0WT: 200POS: QB
Analysis: This will be a tough decision. Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley is hoping to find a leader at QB who can elevate the whole team, the way Russell Wilson did with Seattle in 2012. Is Manziel that guy? I think the key for Manziel is going to be how he interviews. Some teams are going to fall in love with his confidence, whereas others will be turned off by him. One reason why I think Manziel fits in Jacksonville is that offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch has proved throughout his career that he can successfully adapt his system to his personnel, which is a must for any team that brings in Manziel, given his exceptional mobility and improvisational skills.

Manziel doesn't have ideal size, but I've been really impressed this season with how he improved his delivery mechanics to get better velocity on his throws, and his improvement at going through his progressions. If he can continue to develop in the NFL, he has a chance to be really good.

5.Jadeveon Clowney*Atlanta Falcons (4-10)
COLLEGE: South CarolinaAGE: 20HT: 6-5WT: 258POS: DE
Analysis: The Falcons are in dire need of an edge rusher, and in this scenario they'll get one in the form of our No. 1-ranked prospect in the draft. There's something of a gamble involved with Clowney in that his motor ran hot and cold toward the end of the season, but he isn't a bad kid and he has the potential to develop into a double-digit sack guy, a three-down lineman and a dominant player overall. I see a lot of Julius Peppers in him; Peppers hasn't always given the best effort, but I don't know of many teams that wouldn't want him. Clowney's a tremendous value if he drops this far; if it weren't for the number of QB-needy teams picking ahead of Atlanta, he'd go earlier.

6.Derek CarrCleveland Browns (4-10)
COLLEGE: Fresno StateAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 209POS: QB
Analysis: Quarterback is the Browns' top priority. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner wants a QB with size and the arm strength to push the ball down the field, and that's what Carr provides. He is a little bit of a reach here, but there's a lot to like about his game. He had a monster 2013 season (4,866 yards, 48 TDs to just 7 INTs), is very accurate and has great touch on short-to-intermediate throws, has a high football IQ and gets the ball out quickly. He can improve his deep-ball accuracy, but has the arm strength to make all the NFL throws and the maturity and experience to come in and play right away.

7.Anthony BarrTampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10)
COLLEGE: UCLAAGE: 21HT: 6-4WT: 244POS: OLB
Analysis: We don't know if the Bucs will undergo a coaching change this offseason, but assuming that Greg Schiano is still there, I think that rookie QB Mike Glennon will at least be given the opportunity to win next season's starting job. And in this scenario, there isn't really a QB prospect worthy of the pick here.

That will leave the Bucs with the tough decision of going for an offensive tackle in Michigan's Taylor Lewan or an edge rusher in Barr whom we grade out several spots higher. I think they'd go with the better player in Barr, even though he's not an ideal fit in the 4-3 defense Tampa currently runs. He's an eat-breathe-sleep football guy who is just starting to come into his own as a player, and it won't take him long to bulk up to 260 pounds if that's what the Bucs need from him. Even if he isn't able to play as many snaps as a rookie as you'd want from your starting defensive end, he'd still have an immediate impact as a pass-rusher.

Which one is closer to that standard though? I think Matthews has a better chance of approaching Boselli than Bridgewater has of getting within spitting distance of Luck.

I'm hoping we get to deal out of the top spot and pick up a few extra picks along the way but if we don't then that's how I would do it.

Well the real question isn't two unattainables, it is the drop off in what is attainable.

So we have no Luck or Boselli in this draft. What is the drop off from Bridgewater/Bortles to Mettenberger v. Matthews to an Erving or Richardson?

There are rare exceptions but usually the drop off on QBs is a cliff whereas the drop off on OT's is a relative gentle slope. We're talking about getting another guy akin to Duane Brown v. getting one like Brock Osweiller, Jimmy Clauson, Pat White, etc. Virtually every year there are OTs taken after the top of the 2nd who pan out while only once in a while do the QBs pan out.

Not high on any of those especially at 1-1. Admittedly, my focus on Bortles was late season and when I watched those games...I looked elsewhere. Fans complain about Keenum's playing only a half then want Bortles? Like most if Manziel is highly successful in NFL, I will smack my forehead and groan but if he fizzles, I will do chicken dance. I still think Hundley comes out & my info (as posted) is maybe a second rounder. My thinking as of now would be McCarron if Hundley not there. I think AJ climbs after combine. I remember you posting once that you really liked AJ? In short, Matthews + McCarron better than Bridges or Bortles + 2nd round tackle. I have to include risk as well as play.

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I want to be able to recognize the difference between a "want" and a "need" and then I want to be satisfied with getting a need

You are wrong. If the RT is BPA and fills a high priority need and can play every position on the line and could be a franchise type player, I draft him in a minute. There is huge drop in quality of players in second round.

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I want to be able to recognize the difference between a "want" and a "need" and then I want to be satisfied with getting a need