Putin was counting on some hothead giving him an excuse to invade, so far no one has. And everyone knows we aren't going to intervene militarily so there is really no point in pretending we are. Sorry Ukraine we don't love you that much.

EvilEgg:Putin was counting on some hothead giving him an excuse to invade, so far no one has. And everyone knows we aren't going to intervene militarily so there is really no point in pretending we are. Sorry Ukraine we don't love you that much.

If by 'we', you mean the US military, you'd be correct.

That said, NATO is an animal of a completely different color. NATO has said for many years that membership for Ukraine is there for the taking and they only need to ask for it.

Russia might well keep the Crimean territory, but they've driven Ukraine straight into the arms of NATO and there's no telling how many other Eastern European nations are going to follow Ukraine's lead.

Thanks to Putin, NATO troops are going to be sitting right on the Russian border.

Of course it's calmed down. Russia has gotten exactly what they wanted, an independent Crimea that's under Russian control. They've brought part of the Ukraine firmly into their grasp and secured their Black Sea naval bases.

Obama's supporters will now claim it's a great diplomatic victory while Ukraine loses a big chunk of territory to a Russian puppet state.

Infernalist: ... NATO has said for many years that membership for Ukraine is there for the taking and they only need to ask for it.

Russia might well keep the Crimean territory, but they've driven Ukraine straight into the arms of NATO and there's no telling how many other Eastern European nations are going to follow Ukraine's lead.

Thanks to Putin, NATO troops are going to be sitting right on the Russian border.

NATO doesn't want Ukraine as a member because they'd be obligated to defend it in the event of something, well, exactly like this. Even George Bush backed off of inviting Ukraine to join.

NATO troops will indeed be sitting right on the Russian border, but the Russian border will be along Poland and the Baltic states.

Let me see how it works. First you claim, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that Putin wants to capture the whole Ukraine and integrate it into Russia. Then, when the thing claimed by you don't happen, you proclaim it the great victory for you and a great loss for Putin - in fact, this coward is now running with his tail between his legs!

That, of course, is a much better narrative than "Russia got exactly what she wanted from the beginning, and strengthened its positions in the process, and we were panicky incompetents who had no idea what happens and why".

Putin simply repeats the same thing he repeated, again and again, from the very start. But now it somehow a revelation and a change in policy?

Well, the days of me not taking western media's opinion on the things happening in the post-soviet space seriously certainly came to the middle.

Grahor:Let me see how it works. First you claim, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that Putin wants to capture the whole Ukraine and integrate it into Russia. Then, when the thing claimed by you don't happen, you proclaim it the great victory for you and a great loss for Putin - in fact, this coward is now running with his tail between his legs!

Nooo, you're trolling, surely. Obama is the greatest diplomat of all time, and you know that. Never in the history of the U.S. has any president ever stood toe-to-toe with a more ruthless Soviet leader and emerged victorious on the world's diplomatic stage.

Oblio13:Infernalist: ... NATO has said for many years that membership for Ukraine is there for the taking and they only need to ask for it.

Russia might well keep the Crimean territory, but they've driven Ukraine straight into the arms of NATO and there's no telling how many other Eastern European nations are going to follow Ukraine's lead.

Thanks to Putin, NATO troops are going to be sitting right on the Russian border.

NATO doesn't want Ukraine as a member because they'd be obligated to defend it in the event of something, well, exactly like this. Even George Bush backed off of inviting Ukraine to join.

NATO troops will indeed be sitting right on the Russian border, but the Russian border will be along Poland and the Baltic states.

Reality thinks you're an idiot. It's a well-known documented reality that NATO has repeatedly extended the offer of membership to Ukraine. They've only refused up to now because of the pro-Russian government that was in place. That's changed and I can guarantee that Ukraine will be a member of NATO before the end of the year. To say nothing of the other Eastern European countries that have, until now, felt secure that Russia wasn't the aggressive Empire that it was back in the USSR days.

So, yeah, Russia might get to keep the Crimean region under its thumb, but they're going to pay heavily for it with a newly hostile EU and Eastern Europe. They've already lost billions and you can be sure that no one with any money is going to want to invest in an unstable aggressive Russia.

DontMakeMeComeBackThere:Grahor: Let me see how it works. First you claim, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that Putin wants to capture the whole Ukraine and integrate it into Russia. Then, when the thing claimed by you don't happen, you proclaim it the great victory for you and a great loss for Putin - in fact, this coward is now running with his tail between his legs!

Nooo, you're trolling, surely. Obama is the greatest diplomat of all time, and you know that. Never in the history of the U.S. has any president ever stood toe-to-toe with a more ruthless Soviet leader and emerged victorious on the world's diplomatic stage.

Infernalist:Oblio13: Infernalist: ... NATO has said for many years that membership for Ukraine is there for the taking and they only need to ask for it.

Russia might well keep the Crimean territory, but they've driven Ukraine straight into the arms of NATO and there's no telling how many other Eastern European nations are going to follow Ukraine's lead.

Thanks to Putin, NATO troops are going to be sitting right on the Russian border.

NATO doesn't want Ukraine as a member because they'd be obligated to defend it in the event of something, well, exactly like this. Even George Bush backed off of inviting Ukraine to join.

NATO troops will indeed be sitting right on the Russian border, but the Russian border will be along Poland and the Baltic states.

Reality thinks you're an idiot. It's a well-known documented reality that NATO has repeatedly extended the offer of membership to Ukraine. They've only refused up to now because of the pro-Russian government that was in place. That's changed and I can guarantee that Ukraine will be a member of NATO before the end of the year. To say nothing of the other Eastern European countries that have, until now, felt secure that Russia wasn't the aggressive Empire that it was back in the USSR days.

So, yeah, Russia might get to keep the Crimean region under its thumb, but they're going to pay heavily for it with a newly hostile EU and Eastern Europe. They've already lost billions and you can be sure that no one with any money is going to want to invest in an unstable aggressive Russia.

I would agree that this will drive Ukraine and other former Soviet satellite states in to the arms of the west and NATO. I would also agree that this will have a negative effect on investment and trade with Russia... I wouldn't, however, say that no one will invest or trade with them... greed has little memory.

mongbiohazard:I would agree that this will drive Ukraine and other former Soviet satellite states in to the arms of the west and NATO.

*with deep sarcasm* and that would different from the situation before... how exactly?

I'm in Latvia, former Soviet satellite state. We are in NATO. AS IS EVERYONE ELSE ALREADY! There is nobody else to drive to NATO because WE ARE THERE ALREADY.

Western Ukraine wanted to be in NATO for a long time; Eastern Ukraine didn't want it. Westerne Ukraine wants to be in NATO now even more; Eastern Ukraine doesn't want to be in NATO now even more. What have changed?

mongbiohazard:Infernalist: Oblio13: Infernalist: ... NATO has said for many years that membership for Ukraine is there for the taking and they only need to ask for it.

Russia might well keep the Crimean territory, but they've driven Ukraine straight into the arms of NATO and there's no telling how many other Eastern European nations are going to follow Ukraine's lead.

Thanks to Putin, NATO troops are going to be sitting right on the Russian border.

NATO doesn't want Ukraine as a member because they'd be obligated to defend it in the event of something, well, exactly like this. Even George Bush backed off of inviting Ukraine to join.

NATO troops will indeed be sitting right on the Russian border, but the Russian border will be along Poland and the Baltic states.

Reality thinks you're an idiot. It's a well-known documented reality that NATO has repeatedly extended the offer of membership to Ukraine. They've only refused up to now because of the pro-Russian government that was in place. That's changed and I can guarantee that Ukraine will be a member of NATO before the end of the year. To say nothing of the other Eastern European countries that have, until now, felt secure that Russia wasn't the aggressive Empire that it was back in the USSR days.

So, yeah, Russia might get to keep the Crimean region under its thumb, but they're going to pay heavily for it with a newly hostile EU and Eastern Europe. They've already lost billions and you can be sure that no one with any money is going to want to invest in an unstable aggressive Russia.

I would agree that this will drive Ukraine and other former Soviet satellite states in to the arms of the west and NATO. I would also agree that this will have a negative effect on investment and trade with Russia... I wouldn't, however, say that no one will invest or trade with them... greed has little memory.

Oh? Cuba wonders if you've been paying attention. Iran would also disagree with you. NK would speak up but it's currently shooting more missiles at the water and boiling up some rock stew.

Would sanctions have that sort of impact on Russia? Nope. But, it would hurt. They've lose billions in the last few days, roughly $58 billion, and sanctions haven't even been put in place yet, much less asset seizures.

Of course, Russian interests could remove those assets from foreign banks and markets and save them from seizure, but that would basically be voluntarily isolating themselves, which is the entire point of the sanctions and seizures in the first place.

This is going to 'hurt' the Russians in a big way on multiple levels, and it's going to hurt more and more as time passes and Russia makes it clear that they're not giving up the Crimean region.

Grahor:mongbiohazard: I would agree that this will drive Ukraine and other former Soviet satellite states in to the arms of the west and NATO.

*with deep sarcasm* and that would different from the situation before... how exactly?

I'm in Latvia, former Soviet satellite state. We are in NATO. AS IS EVERYONE ELSE ALREADY! There is nobody else to drive to NATO because WE ARE THERE ALREADY.

Western Ukraine wanted to be in NATO for a long time; Eastern Ukraine didn't want it. Westerne Ukraine wants to be in NATO now even more; Eastern Ukraine doesn't want to be in NATO now even more. What have changed?

They have no reason to say no anymore. NATO troops will be sitting on the Russian border before long and that terrifies the Russians.

I hope the Crimean region was worth losing billions upon billions as well as turning the entire region against them.

I think everyone (including Putin) is waiting for the other shoe to drop. If West and East Ukraine work things out it'll be just Crimea. If an actual civil war breaks out then the East is probably going back as well. Either way it'll happen from within, with the Russian army moving in to "calm things down".

Grahor:Let me see how it works. First you claim, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that Putin wants to capture the whole Ukraine and integrate it into Russia. Then, when the thing claimed by you don't happen, you proclaim it the great victory for you and a great loss for Putin - in fact, this coward is now running with his tail between his legs!

That, of course, is a much better narrative than "Russia got exactly what she wanted from the beginning, and strengthened its positions in the process, and we were panicky incompetents who had no idea what happens and why".

Putin simply repeats the same thing he repeated, again and again, from the very start. But now it somehow a revelation and a change in policy?

Welcome to the world of media spin. It's actually a surprisingly successful strategy, as long as your goal is to maintain the illusion of having psychic and/or precognitive superpowers and not to actually do anything.

/meanwhile, "idiots" that deliver warnings based on a real understanding of Russian politics are roundly mocked//either for being too stupid to run a con game, or for being too stupid to avoid the appearance of running a con game///just another example of how elimination of judgment is killing us

Infernalist:That's changed and I can guarantee that Ukraine will be a member of NATO before the end of the year.

I don't think that's going to be the case. Russia's entire reason for doing what they've been doing was to send a message to the west saying, "don't try to marginalize our influence with our direct neighbors." The troop build-ups on the border, and all the show of force was done to make it clear that Russia is capable and willing to invade Ukraine if they feel they've been pushed too far. The rest of NATO isn't going to want Ukraine to be a member unless they think it's absolutely certain that Russia won't invade Ukraine in response. NATO doesn't want to have to fight Russia, especially over Ukraine, because the only way to kick an invading Russia out of Ukraine would likely be a full scale war against Russian forces not just in Ukraine but within Russia itself, and even though the west would have the advantage, the end-game for such a war would be highly unpredictable. I think the more likely scenario, assuming cooler heads prevail, is that the west will use back-channels to let Russia know that NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table as long as Russia recognizes the government in Kiev, after the next elections.

positronica:Infernalist: That's changed and I can guarantee that Ukraine will be a member of NATO before the end of the year.

I don't think that's going to be the case. Russia's entire reason for doing what they've been doing was to send a message to the west saying, "don't try to marginalize our influence with our direct neighbors." The troop build-ups on the border, and all the show of force was done to make it clear that Russia is capable and willing to invade Ukraine if they feel they've been pushed too far. The rest of NATO isn't going to want Ukraine to be a member unless they think it's absolutely certain that Russia won't invade Ukraine in response. NATO doesn't want to have to fight Russia, especially over Ukraine, because the only way to kick an invading Russia out of Ukraine would likely be a full scale war against Russian forces not just in Ukraine but within Russia itself, and even though the west would have the advantage, the end-game for such a war would be highly unpredictable. I think the more likely scenario, assuming cooler heads prevail, is that the west will use back-channels to let Russia know that NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table as long as Russia recognizes the government in Kiev, after the next elections.

Whatever their reasons were, all that Pooty poot has managed to do is give the West the motivation and opportunity to treat them with an antagonist approach, and plant NATO troops within frighteningly close proximity to many of its biggest cities.

He's all but invited them into Ukraine, to stay, with an offer of punch and pie.

Grahor:Let me see how it works. First you claim, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that Putin wants to capture the whole Ukraine and integrate it into Russia. Then, when the thing claimed by you don't happen, you proclaim it the great victory for you and a great loss for Putin - in fact, this coward is now running with his tail between his legs!

Russia has clearly been trying to provoke Ukrainian troops into firing the first shot, and Ukraine refuses to take the bait. Without a casus belli, Russia can't move beyond Crimea.

For the record, I don't think THE PRESIDENT did anything particularly exceptional. The difference between me and the Fark Independents is I don't think former PRESIDENT the blessed Saint Reagan would have done anything different. The phone call would have gone about the same, maybe even gentler. The damn call could have been 'Hey, how's the weather over there? Yeah, been wet here, too.' It doesn't actually matter. The point is, when you're Russia, and THE PRESIDENT calls, you know why he called, and it's a reminder that if you step over the line and public opinion goes heavy against you might just be writing a check your mafia-run military can't cash.

EvilEgg:Putin was counting on some hothead giving him an excuse to invade, so far no one has. And everyone knows we aren't going to intervene militarily so there is really no point in pretending we are. Sorry Ukraine we don't love you that much.

No he wasn't. He wants Crimea, not Ukraine. That part is just in your imagination (or told to you by Fox "news").

Putin still is playing by an old playbook - but I think it makes sense in that context. He's already spread misinformation on how the Ukrainians were mistreating Russian-speaking peoples (check) to both Eastern Ukraine and his own people. So he has won the only popularity contest he cares about, for now.

Russia has legitimate economic concerns in Ukraine, and a Western-leaning Ukraine, with more business connections to the West, than to Russia, would be an even more legitimate concern. But that's on the basis of a winner-take-all game plan - the old game plan. Note how many of the former Soviet satellites are doing comparatively better now that they have better economic ties to the west. That is the fate that awaits the satellite countries that remain under the sphere of Russian influence....when they wake up. Those who are more plugged in to the outside world know that it's economic war that is being waged - Russia is still backwards in that sense, but the Oligarchs know better and so do a fair amount of younger folks. By not playing that nationalistic jingo game (which usually pisses EVERYONE off, including the young) the west can draw some of these leaning countries to be valuable trading partners - and customers. War becomes more and more obsolete as you develop more economic ties to everyone, but that requires more governments that can do the math.

Putin and Russia could probably protect their economic interests legally - but where is the fun in that? And does that play to Russia's strengths? Rignt now, Ukraine is not a money-maker; they have economic difficulties and have been asking for loans, some of which Russia provided (probably right into the pocket of their old President) and some which the US and EU are now considering ponying up for. The question is, what CAN they become? There is definite potential - so it would be an investment. They could legitimately negotiate with Russia for pipeline maintenance and finding markets for their wheat - if Russia would let them. From Russia's standpoint, they may not have enough attraction to the majority of Ukrainians to win the bidding war legitimately. So, will they let the rest of Ukraine go?

Putin is fighting to return to the past - and so is the GOP. That's the joke.....but given enough time, those old farkers will die and the world will continue to progress. Sanctions will work and pressure will be felt - and I think the Oligarchs will make it known just how much they don't like losing money. Until then, vigilance is still needed and nobody needs to get too comfortable or smug - keeping powder dry is still advised.

spawn73:EvilEgg: Putin was counting on some hothead giving him an excuse to invade, so far no one has. And everyone knows we aren't going to intervene militarily so there is really no point in pretending we are. Sorry Ukraine we don't love you that much.

No he wasn't. He wants Crimea, not Ukraine. That part is just in your imagination (or told to you by Fox "news").

Putin is on record as saying that he does not consider Ukraine to be a separate country and that he felt the breakup of the Soviet Union was a bad thing. Part of his strategy with the Russian economic bloc is to pull Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan back into the federal fold. With the Baltic states gone, Russia doesn't have much of a buffer left. It's going to be almost impossible to ever pull Ukraine back into the fold after this, but if he could pull off a few of the pro-Russian eastern areas of Ukraine, it would be a nice consolation prize.

Katolu: So the Great Evil Empire that Regan fought so hard against is back to its old ways. And the GOP is slurping their c0ck. What a surprise.

So, what is it: 1) War-monger GOP wants to start a war over Ukraine, because Russia has invaded, or 2) GOP is slurping Russia's c0ck

Now, it can't be both, you understand. You do, don't you? OK, call your handler at the DNC, and tell him that you want one and only one person giving you your talking points, because things are getting confused. Also, you want more money, and can you have more stuff about c0ck slurping, because you like talking about that, on several different levels.

zimbomba63:Katolu: So the Great Evil Empire that Regan fought so hard against is back to its old ways. And the GOP is slurping their c0ck. What a surprise.

So, what is it: 1) War-monger GOP wants to start a war over Ukraine, because Russia has invaded, or 2) GOP is slurping Russia's c0ck

Now, it can't be both, you understand. You do, don't you? OK, call your handler at the DNC, and tell him that you want one and only one person giving you your talking points, because things are getting confused. Also, you want more money, and can you have more stuff about c0ck slurping, because you like talking about that, on several different levels.

Well, that's the thing. It is both. The neocons want war because war with Russia is their raison d'être. On the other hand, they deeply admire Putin's "lead with your dick" leadership style. Giuliani was like a dotting mother in his interview. Palin rambled something about mom jeans and bear wrestling that clearly indicated that she admired Putin's manliness. It doesn't seem like you would be able to reconcile those two beliefs, but doublethink has become second-nature to the GOP.

Mentat:zimbomba63: Katolu: So the Great Evil Empire that Regan fought so hard against is back to its old ways. And the GOP is slurping their c0ck. What a surprise.

So, what is it: 1) War-monger GOP wants to start a war over Ukraine, because Russia has invaded, or 2) GOP is slurping Russia's c0ck

Now, it can't be both, you understand. You do, don't you? OK, call your handler at the DNC, and tell him that you want one and only one person giving you your talking points, because things are getting confused. Also, you want more money, and can you have more stuff about c0ck slurping, because you like talking about that, on several different levels.

Well, that's the thing. It is both. The neocons want war because war with Russia is their raison d'être. On the other hand, they deeply admire Putin's "lead with your dick" leadership style. Giuliani was like a dotting mother in his interview. Palin rambled something about mom jeans and bear wrestling that clearly indicated that she admired Putin's manliness. It doesn't seem like you would be able to reconcile those two beliefs, but doublethink has become second-nature to the GOP.

Gosh darn it, don't we all hear what we want to hear, and when bit players say what we want to hear, well that's more than sufficient to begin painting with that farking broad brush. There seems to be a great unease on the Democratic side, probably because these events are beyond their control, so the search for patsies and fall guys is in full swing and the narrative is being polished, that those unpatriotic Republicans pulled the rug out on the Obama administration. Just a few days ago, we were being told that this whole Ukrainian thing was base on comments Romney made during the election campaign. Okay!?!? What's that smell? Smells like flop sweat?

zimbomba63:Gosh darn it, don't we all hear what we want to hear, and when bit players say what we want to hear, well that's more than sufficient to begin painting with that farking broad brush. There seems to be a great unease on the Democratic side, probably because these events are beyond their control, so the search for patsies and fall guys is in full swing and the narrative is being polished, that those unpatriotic Republicans pulled the rug out on the Obama administration. Just a few days ago, we were being told that this whole Ukrainian thing was base on comments Romney made during the election campaign. Okay!?!? What's that smell? Smells like flop sweat?

zimbomba63:Katolu: So the Great Evil Empire that Regan fought so hard against is back to its old ways. And the GOP is slurping their c0ck. What a surprise.

So, what is it: 1) War-monger GOP wants to start a war over Ukraine, because Russia has invaded, or 2) GOP is slurping Russia's c0ck

Now, it can't be both, you understand. You do, don't you? OK, call your handler at the DNC, and tell him that you want one and only one person giving you your talking points, because things are getting confused. Also, you want more money, and can you have more stuff about c0ck slurping, because you like talking about that, on several different levels.

Oh, the DNC gives me my talking points? Huh and here I thought I was just regurgitating the derp from the Tea Partiests here at work. Funny that.