AFL Betting: Finals Week One Predictive Model

Betfair Data Scientists – Predictive AFL Model

In the lead up to the AFL Finals, the Betfair Data Scientists have mined statistics to build a prediction model across the four week period. The output of this Model comes in the form of odds that best suit the probability of a team winning based on the Model.

They have been through a rigid process to produce the outputs which has involved data collection, data processing and then creating the model itself with comprehensive back testing and refinements.

Over 150 variables have been taken into account using the past 5 seasons of data. Some of the more important and unique variables used were:

Player stats

Overall Team stats

Recent H2H Matchups

Fantasy league scores

Ladder position

Recent finals performances

Average points margin against top 8

Middle of season win rate

Performance per quarter

Betfair weighted average price

Betfair last matched price

Betfair tournament odds at the end of the H & A season

The prediction accuracy of the best model was 72.3% based on the results of the past 4 years of AFL Finals.
Below is the forecasted prices for week 1.