The "dilemma" facing the Raptors.

The coming off-season will see the Raptors in a position of "dilemma". On the one hand they can choose to continue the re-building process and hope they contend which seems like a realistic possibility. On the other, they can 'tank'(assuming OKC uses our pick this year), end up in the bottom as much as possible and possibly pick a "franchise player" in a deep 2014 draft. The latter will probably not happen if BC is still at the helm 'cause it would mean that all this(rebuilding) was for nothing. So the only way option two is possible as I see it is if BC is fired.

Let's however look at the two options.

1) CONTINUE REBUILDING.

ADVANTAGES:

-Possibly make the play-offs next year and build from there. Maybe some repeated visits to the play-offs.
-Another addition like Gay is very possible.

DISADVANTAGES:

-Bad chemistry could lead to a disaster with the team ending up in a familiar 'outside the play-offs' position therefore picking late lottery.
-Team stuck with big, difficult to move contracts.
-An almost certain BC firing would lead to a new GM being hired who could take time to bring the team on track.

2) TANK.

ADVANTAGES:

-A deep draft can see Raptors pick one of 5-6 'superstar potential' players who could completely change the direction of the franchise.
-With some good talent already on the team, it shouldn't take long to be successful.
-The superstar pick being on a Rookie contract for a while would mean financial stability and flexibility.

DISADVANTAGES:

-Possibility of ending up with a pick outside 5-6, thereby ending up with an OK player but not a 'franchise course altering' one.
-The above takes the team further back.

If I haven't included some points, please do so. Option 1 is safe but can leave the team in mediocrity or less. Option 2 is risky but can be very rewarding. What do you guys think?

sure you stopped drinking, so it was a great success... but now you're a god damn crackhead

and maybe you'll be able to fight off the crack addiction.... but the people who know you will always remember that year you pretended Chris Quinn and a bunch of D-leaguers were legit.... i mean, that year you were a crackhead

#1 is the only viable option. A team doesn't draft in the lottery for 4 straight seasons (DeRozan, Davis, Valanciunas and Ross), then trade a future 1st round pick for a young starting PG and make a blockbuster deal for a high priced 2nd-tier star, only to turnaround and start another complete rebuild from scratch. This isn't even a legit discussion, as far as the Raptors are concerned.

Even if all the Raptors players died and a rebuild from scratch was required, there's no guarantee that the Raps be the 'best' at tanking ahead of the 2014 draft, there's no guarantee that the Raps would win the 2014 draft lottery and there's no guarantee that any players in the 2014 draft lottery will go on to become superstars. That's not even a strategy, it's just dumb luck, wishful thinking and hope.

The people that dismiss tanking are often talking like it's an alternative that they can't stomach cause it means losing. Guys, this team isn't going to win. It's not like tweaking and re-tooling the current roster is going to result in sustained winning.

Look, the team added Kyle Lowry (in order to win), added Rudy Gay (what's the record since?) and two, count' me, two, lottery picks. The result? A 27-46 team.

People who think that staying the course with this team are going to see 3-4 years of playoffs and THE SECOND ROUND????????????? are fooling themselves. This roster, over 82 games next year, will be lucky to win 40 games. Every single starter will need to post career numbers, they will need to stay completely healthy, and they'll still probably need another star player. Just to do that.

I'm not advocating tanking. But let's not pretend we're liquidating our position in Google to play a hand of roulette here. Or that 'tanking' for Wiggins would be any worse that what we're watching now.

The people that dismiss tanking are often talking like it's an alternative that they can't stomach cause it means losing. Guys, this team isn't going to win. It's not like tweaking and re-tooling the current roster is going to result in sustained winning.

Look, the team added Kyle Lowry (in order to win), added Rudy Gay (what's the record since?) and two, count' me, two, lottery picks. The result? A 27-46 team.

People who think that staying the course with this team are going to see 3-4 years of playoffs and THE SECOND ROUND????????????? are fooling themselves. This roster, over 82 games next year, will be lucky to win 40 games. Every single starter will need to post career numbers, they will need to stay completely healthy, and they'll still probably need another star player. Just to do that.

I'm not advocating tanking. But let's not pretend we're liquidating our position in Google to play a hand of roulette here. Or that 'tanking' for Wiggins would be any worse that what we're watching now.

I'm not sure if you were talking to me specifically or not, but my message was more an assumption of the current thinking from the franchise's perspective. Personally, I wanted a completed tear-down rebuild from the moment the Bosh trade went down. I was also a big advocate for aggressive tanking (aka long-term effective team-building) last season, while their lottery pick was playing overseas. Last year's band-aid quasi win-now approach was the final straw for me, regarding BC.

I would be fine with a proper rebuild again, provided there's a new GM and coaching staff in place (DC is not the right coach for a young, rebuilding team). I just don't think it's a reasonable option to expect from this team right now - no more realistic than trading for LBJ...

Having said that, I also don't have the 'doom and gloom' attitude about the short and long term future that some people around here have. I totally understand the negativity, given how the season has gone and the fact that the team seems to be mailing it in lately. I still think the team is a few shrewd moves away from a significant turnaround, but I'm worried that BC/DC aren't the right pair to be successful, either in terms of making the right moves this offseason or in terms of getting the most out of the talent/potential on the roster.

I'm not sure if you were talking to me specifically or not, but my message was more an assumption of the current thinking from the franchise's perspective. Personally, I wanted a completed tear-down rebuild from the moment the Bosh trade went down. I was also a big advocate for aggressive tanking (aka long-term effective team-building) last season, while their lottery pick was playing overseas. Last year's band-aid quasi win-now approach was the final straw for me, regarding BC.

I would be fine with a proper rebuild again, provided there's a new GM and coaching staff in place (DC is not the right coach for a young, rebuilding team). I just don't think it's a reasonable option to expect from this team right now - no more realistic than trading for LBJ...

No, I agree with you about what's going to happen. It was a general comment not aimed at you but at a lot of other stuff on these boards (and elsewhere).

Matt in his anger has pointed out that everything seems to be gearing up for 2015. If we start winning more even in mediocrity the young guys learn how to win and the expensive contracts come off the books with JV and Ross entering their prime. This really does seem to be the long view.

sure you stopped drinking, so it was a great success... but now you're a god damn crackhead

and maybe you'll be able to fight off the crack addiction.... but the people who know you will always remember that year you pretended Chris Quinn and a bunch of D-leaguers were legit.... i mean, that year you were a crackhead

At some point we need to give a coach more than two years to run a program. It takes YEARS to establish a system and get the best out of people. Maybe Casey is the wrong guy maybe he isn't but let's see what his third year brings. we know he can teach and coach defense. we know he understands the game. we know his rotations were good last year and shit this year. You don't unlearn how to do rotations, perhaps there is some front office types messing with his mind. He has had to integrate not 1, not 2, but 3 rookies. Had his free agent glue guy come apart at the seems with elbow injuries (his shot is still broken and will need to be addressed in the off-season) Bargnani regressed beyond even what I thought was possible, Mid season trade, Pietrus was a shell of himself, Kleiza has rampant knee issues, John Lucas is not a backup PG, Lowry was struggling to adapt to a system and style often in the shadow of calderon. He was out of shape and dealing with back spasms for the past two months. Gay is going blind (needs glasses but doesn't want to use them until he has time to adjust in the off-season) Gay is suffering from back spasms. Our offense has gone from a lot of movement an control under Calderon to iso-cut heavy - long 2 chucking sessions. Our prized rookie broke his hand....And guess what...A lot of us predicted this season we would finish 9th just missing the playoffs and winning somewhere in the range of 35 -40 games. Which is still within range given all the reasons/excuses I just listed. We are going to give up the worst possible pick and our rookies are now getting major burn in prep for next year....so...

At some point we need to give a coach more than two years to run a program. It takes YEARS to establish a system and get the best out of people. Maybe Casey is the wrong guy maybe he isn't but let's see what his third year brings. we know he can teach and coach defense. we know he understands the game. we know his rotations were good last year and shit this year. You don't unlearn how to do rotations, perhaps there is some front office types messing with his mind. He has had to integrate not 1, not 2, but 3 rookies. Had his free agent glue guy come apart at the seems with elbow injuries (his shot is still broken and will need to be addressed in the off-season) Bargnani regressed beyond even what I thought was possible, Mid season trade, Pietrus was a shell of himself, Kleiza has rampant knee issues, John Lucas is not a backup PG, Lowry was struggling to adapt to a system and style often in the shadow of calderon. He was out of shape and dealing with back spasms for the past two months. Gay is going blind (needs glasses but doesn't want to use them until he has time to adjust in the off-season) Gay is suffering from back spasms. Our offense has gone from a lot of movement an control under Calderon to iso-cut heavy - long 2 chucking sessions. Our prized rookie broke his hand....And guess what...A lot of us predicted this season we would finish 9th just missing the playoffs and winning somewhere in the range of 35 -40 games. Which is still within range given all the reasons/excuses I just listed. We are going to give up the worst possible pick and our rookies are now getting major burn in prep for next year....so...

CHILL THE FUCK OUT EVERYONE.

The problem is that an awful lot of the bad things that you listed for Toronto this season will apply next season as well. Kleiza's career looks over. Fields is damaged goods until he proves otherwise. Bargnani isn't going to miraculously turn it around in Toronto next Fall and his trade value has officially hit rock bottom. The offense next year will still have the same long-two loving perimeter guys as the focal point. Maybe next year will be the season that Lowry finally figures it out but I doubt it.

A good lesson Raptors hopefully learnt from last year is that tanking should mean a 100% tanking. It should mean totally 'sucking'. While the team was playing for a good, high pick, it also didn't want to easily squander games. The intention of the whole process was to attain a 'culture change'. What ended up happening was that neither did they get a high pick nor was the 'culture change' attained.

I'm not saying that 'tank' is what the team should do. What I'm saying is that if that's the route they decide to go, then go all the way and 'suck'.

Matt in his anger has pointed out that everything seems to be gearing up for 2015. If we start winning more even in mediocrity the young guys learn how to win and the expensive contracts come off the books with JV and Ross entering their prime. This really does seem to be the long view.