OPINIONS vs. Quantitative Modeling

Posted Jul 9, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

Do you expect all markets to align with the 2015.75 turning point (or the few months following, due to false moves)?

Would, in this case, such an alignment correspond with high/low reversals in trend, and all markets would then align to the ECM into 2020?

Thanks in advance

SB

ANSWER: The next three months will be interesting. The numbers are the numbers; that is where the trend will be revealed. I can offer my OPINION, such as if the May high holds than a decline is likely. However, that is just what I say – an opinion and not a forecast. We have the targets in time and we have the reversals for price. We need to elect the points provided to fulfill a forecast. Whatever I think might happen is just opinion. It is difficult at best for any human being to fit all the pieces together.

Our team will be moving to the extended beta version of Socrates next week (please note: this is not yet open to the public). As that moves forward, we will be implementing INQUIRY to allow users to ask questions on a limited basis. Additionally, we are also working on the interface to allow users to ask questions about correlation. For example, what markets are correlating with silver right now? Socrates will then scan the entire world providing stocks, indexes, commodities, and any other required information to answer that question. We expect Socrates to launch to the public within the next few months.

There will always be jerks whom are incapable of understanding how the world functions. They will always try to recast whatever we do into some right or wrong, judging what we are doing based upon the opinions of others. Generally, they are the lower level people on the mental food chain who cannot see how the world is connected. Using a tool that allows one to see such connections and eliminate OPINION is just too much for them to truly understand. We need those types of people to trade against for they are the fuel that makes the markets move opposite of their expectations. These are the same type of people who prevented progress by refusing to believe the world was round for how could someone possibly stand upside down on a ball without falling off? It’s just absurd!

Creating a tool that allows you to see the connections is the key to our economic evolution. Therein lies all answers for it reveals that politicians cannot create something that is against the trend, exactly as we see the stupidity of the Troika and leaders of Germany and France who just do not understand their own limitations and futility. Like the jerk who constantly tries to equal everything to opinion analysis, politicians rule the world trying to create things that cannot economically withstand the trend of the whole.

I cannot emphasize how difficult this project has been. Porting Socrates to the web has been a tremendous undertaking. At the same time, we’ve had to ensure that only the results upload, and not the actual program; we have had to be mindful of security to prevent any attack to grab it and run. The only security capable of withstanding cyber-attacks is to keep Socrates offline and fully encrypted from a proprietary algorithm so nobody can offer a back door to someone else.

We are porting asset allocation, portfolio construction, portfolio alerts advising on turning points and reversals, big movers where the biggest trades will be, and more. This is all possible with a quantitative model – not OPINION. Once you understand how the models function using fractal structures in time and price, then you can trade any market in the world.

Socrates will trade any market, showing where it stands at that moment, and will allow you to back-test in hypothetical trading. This can be adjusted from aggressive to hedging based upon your objectives. On this level, it is flexible according to your risk profile.

We are nearly there. Thank you for your patience. We provided a partial demonstration at the Solution Conference. We will be revealing a lot more at the upcoming World Economic Conferences in Princeton & Berlin.