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*Direct all correspondence to Hiroshi Ono, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, S-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden 〈Hiroshi.Ono@hhs.se〉. We thank Junichiro Miyabe, Juro Toda, and Wayne Parsons for assistance with the Nomura Research Institute data set. We also thank the Social Science Quarterly reviewers and Robert Lineberry for helpful comments. The data are available from the authors for purposes of replication. This work was commenced when the second author was at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Any views expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.