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Don’t blame only the play calling for Louisville’s struggles, stats say

As the Louisville football team has stumbled during a 4-2 start, questions have started to surface from those outside the program about the Cardinals’ play calling on offense.

But it’s not that simple, the statistics show.

At this point last season, Louisville led the nation in scoring with 52.3 points per game, total offense with 627.5 yards per game and rushing offense with 305.7 yards per game.

So far this year, the Cards rank just 42nd with 194.5 rushing yards per game, and they’ve scored only 37.5 points per game. It’s fair to wonder where the drop-off comes from.

Fans have called for Louisville to run the ball more. A reporter asked coach Bobby Petrino on Monday about the running backs’ production, and Petrino answered, “It’s been frustrating, there’s no question about it. We work hard at it.”

But play calling doesn’t tell the full story. In reality, the Cards aren’t relying on quarterback Lamar Jackson for more in the running game. Last year, he finished with 260 of the team’s 525 rushes (49.5 percent). This year, that number is even lower — 91 of 206 (44.2 percent). Jackson’s effectiveness hasn’t plummeted, either. The quarterback is gaining 5.6 yards per carry this year, down a shade from 6.0 last year.

So it’s not as if Louisville needs to hand the ball off more, though the Cards have given the ball to running back Malik Williams (who has 6.5 carries per game and a nice 7 yards per carry) less often than they did last year to Brandon Radcliff (who earned 10.6 carries per game at 6.5 yards per carry).

In response to that, Petrino admitted that Louisville has tried to involve Williams more.

“We’ve got to get in a rhythm where you’re in the game you can run, pass, play-action and get a good mix of all of them,” Petrino said. “That’s what I like to do on offense, and that’s when I feel like we’re the best.”

Louisville’s play calling has also changed just a touch from last year — from 54.6 percent runs to 45.2 percent runs. But even that, Petrino said, doesn’t tell the full story of why the Cards haven’t repeated their explosive start from last year.

He placed the blame on trailing in games and needing to pass to catch up, which is accurate. Louisville has trailed for a fairly significant 110 total minutes of game time this season — including 42:20 against Clemson and 39:23 last week at NC State. In the first six games of last year, the Cards trailed for exactly 29 minutes, all against Clemson.

Those urgent situations this year have skewed the Cards’ play-calling figures. When behind, Louisville has passed on 112 of 176 snaps (63.6 percent). If you look only at when the Cards are tied or ahead, they run more than 50 percent of the time (140 of 278 snaps), close to where they were last year.

So the answer to Louisville’s offensive fall includes a bit of everything, both the decreased presence of the running back and the difficult spots created by the defense and special teams.

The former issue will not become easier to solve, as Williams will miss Saturday’s game against Boston College with a wrist injury, leaving Bonnafon, Dae Williams and Trey Smith to carry the ball.

But the Cards could also help themselves by managing the game better and not getting into pass-heavy positions. The play calling isn’t at fault for all of them.

“Some games (rushing success has) happened,” Petrino said. “It isn’t really easy to play against Clemson and North Carolina State this year. They’re both really good football teams. It hasn’t been easy, that’s for sure.”

Louisville's Corey Reed runs the ball while North Carolina State's Airius Moore (58) and Tim Kidd-Glass (34) move in for the tackle during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Raleigh, N.C., Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome) Gerry Broome, AP

Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson is tackled by North Carolina State's Jarius Morehead (31) during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Raleigh, N.C., Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome) Gerry Broome, AP

Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino watches during the first half of an NCAA college football game against North Carolina State in Raleigh, N.C., Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome) Gerry Broome, AP