SPX- Here Comes A Turn Down Period

Last week, I said that if 2002 is taken out on the downside for the SPX (S&P 500 Index), then the door would be open for a push to the 2085-ish area. The important support line was never broken, and we saw the SPX make it to new highs. That doesn’t change anything as far as the direction of the next “larger point move,” which has high odds of being down. The only thing in question right now, is whether we completed the minor pullback already and are now about to make new highs before...

Market Review and Forecast: 50 Points To Go In The NQ

The Nasdaq 100 (NQ) pushed up to a new high on Monday and stalled about 50 points from our target zone (4525-4530). It may get there on Tuesday. This zone is a Fib Extension Zone, and markets tend to reach this level of extension 80% of the time, once they post a new high. The NQ is much stronger than AAPL right now, and it is demonstrating that it doesn’t need AAPL to participate in order to zoom higher. That’s bullish. By the way, Volume Profile is not particularly useful when an index...

Watch For Shifts In Commercial Traders’ Biases

One of the primary differences between professional traders and amateur speculators is that professional traders are only focused on the bottom line while novice traders typically find themselves in love with the story of a trade and are far more concerned with “calling the move.” It is this mentality that also leads new traders down the illusive path of homerun-hitting trading programs. Perhaps, the best example of this is attempting to profit from the short side in stock-index futures....

What You Must Know About Inter-Market Relationships (Part 2 of 2)

Last month, we initiated the discussion of inter-market relationships focusing on the currency market’s influence over commodity prices (if you missed it, you will find it here). Let’s turn our attention to the relationships that exist between various asset classes. Some of the conclusions from data will likely go against conventional wisdom. Stocks and Bonds Can Go up and Down Together The oldest adage in the finance industry is, “Stocks up, bonds down”. The quip stems from...

Market Review and Forecast: Watch AAPL

The Nasdaq 100 still has not decided whether it will enter a corrective period or not. I suggest watching AAPL. The accompanying chart shows the Volume Profile for the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) Futures for 30 days and Apple (AAPL) for 50 days. The High Volume Node at 4441 is now critical support for the NQ. It directly corresponds to the $128 level for AAPL, which is why I show these charts side by side. Although the NQ is much stronger than AAPL right now, if AAPL were to move down to fill the gap...

SPX: Welcome To March; Watch Out For The Weather

The Real World February was a terrific month for the stock market, but kind of crummy for everything else. Now we have to face the ides of March, when the weather changes and the world prepares for a reset. For investors, the future is not likely to be nearly as pleasant as the past. First, the real world, and then we look at the market. In the real economy, February was a bust. The fundamental economic reports that are supposed to drive the market were almost universally dismal. US gross...

Price Action Forex Trends

The Forex market has always been known for its strong trends. However, even in directional markets technical traders have some serious decisions to make regarding when to enter and exit the market. Often to solve these difficult trading concerns, traders rely on technical indicators. These indicators can be helpful, but more often than not, traders will find them inconsistent and lagging in nature. So what is a trader to do? One of the alternatives to a technical indicator is price action...

Unlocking Your Phone Is Legal Again -- What Does It Mean For The Wireless Carriers?

Believe it or not, it was illegal, until very recently, for you to unlock your smartphone and take it from one carrier to another. Yes, illegal in the traditional sense. Thanks to a quirky interpretation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), those who unlocked their phones, even as recently as a year ago could wind up behind bars for an unfathomable five years. That’s a long time for something as innocuous as using your property the way you want to use it. But in 2014, President...

Options Trading Strategies: Lessen Volatility In Your Portfolio

Random price movements leave us with very little edge when it comes to reading the charts and technicals. Never mind fundamental analysis, which is simply impossible to explain how stock can move violently after a news event. The market is simply designed around accumulation and distribution, seen very clearly on a price and volume chart. Yet, when these buyers and sellers are pulled in each direction by the market, there is an uneasy feeling about participating. The erratic behavior in...

A Dramatic Year – 2015 Financial Collapse?

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently announced a trillion- dollar package to fight inflation. Whatever these central banks do will not have any effect on the world, short-term. The ECB program involves printing 60-billion euros per month, which is nearly three-quarters of a trillion euros per annum, and they will start in March 2015 and end in September 2016. Their goal is an inflation target of two percent. The program involves the buying of euro-denominated assets. A bankrupt Europe...

NASDAQ – Happy Days Are Here Again

Happy days are here again for NASDAQ bulls, as the composite tech index hit a new all-time high yesterday and traded at its highest level since March of 2000. PowerShares QQQ (QQQ, $108.71) is part of that happiness, as it has offered steady growth in recent years - the ETF rose by nearly 18% in 2014, and is already up over 5% year to date. So what is driving this tech optimism, and is there more room to the upside before this 1990s style bull run shows signs of abetting? Strong...

Three Peaks And A Domed House?

A possible 3PDh formation can be seen on the Dow Industrials index chart. The peaks in Dec’13, July’14, and Sept’14 are the three peaks. At 9mo, the distance between peaks one and three meets Lindsay’s requirement that they be no more than 10mo apart. The Sept/Oct. decline is the separating decline, and it is the only weak park of the formation. Lindsay was adamant that there be a base composed of two tests of the low. If the base were descending (lower lows), it indicated a longer than...