The politics of Chris Christie’s gay marriage move

Chris Christie doesn’t support gay marriage. He vetoed a bill to legalize same-sex nuptials. He has made clear where he stands repeatedly.

But for a GOP base that already views his conservative bona fides warily, his decision not to go down swinging against a court decision that has legalized gay marriage in his state could prove problematic.

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Christie is clearly banking on his image as a straight-talking pragmatist if he runs an almost certain presidential campaign in 2016, and his supporters see this as in keeping with that. They say he’s already made clear he’s against gay marriage.

Christie, who faces inherent geographic suspicion with the base as a Northeastern Republican, asked the state’s acting attorney general to nix the appeal on a ruling making same-sex marriage legal in New Jersey.

The reason, according to a statement from his office? He knew he’d lose, and, the implied point goes, what’s the point in going down swinging just to make a point — especially for a former U.S. attorney?

“Chief Justice Rabner left no ambiguity about the unanimous court’s view on the ultimate decision in this matter when he wrote, same-sex couples who cannot marry are not treated equally under the law today,’” the statement from his aides said.

It’s a strategy that’s similar to the one Mitt Romney used last year — blasting “activist judges” — and it’s one that, if Christie employs, he’ll have to navigate more effectively than Romney did, especially with gay marriage looming as a larger issue in the next two years, thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court rulings earlier this year.

Some Republicans privately said they believe that was a mistake for Christie, who is going to be perceived as the second coming of Rudy Giuliani unless he makes clear that he is, in fact, more conservative than the pro-choice former New York City mayor was. And fighting a lost cause would have made headlines, and made him look dedicated to the issue of preserving traditional marriage.

“It’s definitely not a profile in courage,” said Brian Brown, head of the National Organization for Marriage.

“You’ve got a court in New Jersey that doesn’t understand that it’s supposed to be interpreting the law, not making it up out of thin air,” he added. “And then, the candidate and governor who’s prided himself on he’s gonna do what’s right, he’s gonna tell it like it is, he’s gonna lead, just simply withdraws his appeal because he doesn’t think there’s a likelihood of succeeding? There’s no doubt it’s going to affect him [politically in a 2016 primary].”

But going that route also would have gotten a lot of attention — and probably a good deal of criticism — in the remaining two weeks of Christie’s reelection bid in a heavily Democratic state. Christie is looking to rack up historic margins against struggling and underfunded Democrat Barbara Buono.

What’s more, the Republican base is never going to see Christie as the social-issues candidate, regardless of what he does. He has to be able to preserve his brand, his supporters argue, while also getting a decent chunk of the GOP base that will likely be split among a field of conservative candidates.

That said, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul — not to mention Scott Walker and a handful of other governors — are all better candidates than Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were in 2012.

And with more focus on gay marriage expected in the next two years, the issue will remain a tricky one for Christie to navigate.