1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

First pick: 10 a.m. Baseball America says that according to multiple sources, the Kansas City Royals will take former Dodger draftee Luke Hochevar with the first pick.

10:05 a.m.: And so it is predicted, and so it is done.

10:15 a.m.: The Dodgers take left-handed high school pitcher Clayton Kershaw with the seventh overall pick. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound Kershaw is the first prep player picked this year.

"Considered to be the top high school arm in the draft," MLB.com said, "Kershaw's fastball sits in the mid-90s to go along with a big curve and workable changeup. An oblique injury hasn't scared teams off."

Not scared by an injury risk? Yeah, that sounds like the Dodgers.

I asked Nate Purcell, who studies the draft like it's every final exam he will ever take at the University of Arizona rolled into one, what he thought of Kershaw. Purcell is very high on the pick.

"He is athletic and a competitor," Purcell said. "He throws a heavy, heavy fastball with great late movement - ranges from 90-98 - and a plus curveball, and will only get better as he matures. He shows a feel for his change-up that has a chance to be a good pitch as well. All in all, this is the best (the Dodgers) could have done, and Logan White made Dodger fans proud again. He could even take the (Chad) Billingsley route and be up in LA in three years."

"The Rays' third-round pick from last year, he played two ways in JC and actually broke a bone in his wrist sliding head-first," MLB.com said. "His best offering is a plus, plus curve, though he also has a fastball that can hit the mid-90s."

Said Purcell: "In last year's draft, Bryan Morris was the player I really wanted at 40 until Hochevar fell. The Devil Rays goofed up with Morris and should have gotten him signed. He profiles as a true power pitcher and being from Tennessee, he reminds me a lot of Matt Cain of the Giants. His fastball is plus from 90-97 and his curveball is a true hammer, a 12-6 off the table breaking ball that Baseball America rates as the second-best breaking ball in the college class. I think Morris could be fast-tracked. Starting out next year at Vero Beach and being in Jacksonville by next summer. He certainly has the stuff to do that."

Morris may not be as well known as many college pitchers because he played for a community college in Tennessee. However, he earned Freshman of the Year and Pitcher of the Year honors while fashioning a 10-1 record with a 0.82 ERA, which included a no-hitter vs. Southwest Tennessee and a four-hit, complete-game shutout with 14 strikeouts vs. Hiwasee in the playoffs.

Morris is my type of pitcher. The 6-3, 175-pound RHP has a plus fastball and a power curve. Moreover, the freshman recorded 122 Ks in 88 IP (12.48 K/9) and induced nine groundouts (and only two flyouts) in that Hiwasee shutout last month. He was drafted in the third round by the Devil Rays out of high school last June. The two sides supposedly agreed on a $1.3 million bonus that greatly exceeded the slot money, but the deal was never consummated due to an inability on the part of ownership to pull the trigger. Morris chose to attend Motlow State and join his dad, who is the assistant coach, for one year.

Without seeing him pitch before, I'm still going to give Logan White a big thumbs up on this draft pick.

10:55 a.m.: Leading off the sandwich round with the 31st overall pick, the Dodgers surprise with high school shortstop Preston Mattingly, a son of former Yankee great Don Mattingly.

Preston is 6-3, 205. Speculation at MLB.com was that given the reported low quality of talent in this year's draft, the Dodgers have taken a chance on genetics.

Dodger Thoughts reader Underdog supplied this story from the New York Daily News:

In photographs, 18-year-old Preston Mattingly looks like a teen Donnie Baseball. However, on the field he might be more athletic than his father. Preston was clocked at 6.5 seconds in the 60-yard dash, according to his coach at Evansville Central High, Jason Engelbrecht. One talent evaluator estimated that there are only about 20 players in the majors who would be clocked that fast every time.

"He can run, that's for sure," said Mike Radcliff, the Twins' scouting director who has scouted Preston Mattingly. "He's very athletic, has a real nice frame (6-3, 195 pounds) and you can project him to be strong."

Every team but the A's has scouted Preston, and the Yankees are one of the most active clubs - scouting director Damon Oppenheimer watched Preston two weeks ago.

Preston is "a throwback in this era of specialization for high school kids," Engelbrecht said, because he played three sports. Preston spent the last two summers playing AAU basketball instead of baseball - he does live in Indiana, after all - and even his dad says he's raw.

Still, he hit .478 with 23 extra-base hits and 21 stolen bases in 30 games this season. In addition to his abilities, he wowed scouts with his demeanor.

Ah, character and bloodlines, character and bloodlines. And raw, raw talent.

"He's a three-sport athlete with a gifted bat, plate discipline and more speed than his dad had," Jim Callis of Baseball America wrote. "But though he has good tools, his future position is much in question. No word yet on whether Yankees owner George Steinbrenner has fired any scouting personnel for letting Mattingly get away, but Dodgers official Tommy Lasorda did tweak him after announcing the pick by saying, 'Thank you, George.' "

11:40 a.m.: At Inside the Dodgers, Logan White compared Kershaw to Dave Righetti and Morris to John Smoltz. Given that, you would almost think they should have been drafted in a different order.

The Dodgers' next pick is in the fourth round, 113th overall. So that concludes this morning's coverage!

So, I just read at column at mlb.com (Jonathan Mayo) that has the Royals drafting Skywalker and the Dodgers drafting one Drabek who has alleged "makeup issues." Assuming that does not refer to how he'd look on the day when they dress the rookies up like cheerleaders and hooters girls, what does it mean? And what would it say for the new "Character Counts" Dodgers. (Recognizing of course that it has not at all happened.)

So, Drabek has character issues because he drinks beer in high school with his buddies. Sorry, but I think he'd have character issues if he didn't. Let he who has never partied cast the first pony keg.

Regarding Drabek or any other player with "make up concerns": it seems pretty clear that the current Dodger administration places a premium on "character," and that they won't be acquiring players who don't live up to certain character standards.

Hm, does Mayo really think the Dodgers would pass up Andrew Miller if he fell to them and Kershaw wasn't there either? Maybe they really are looking high schooler all the way I guess if that's the case. But... wow. Well, I really think the Dodgers are going to get a very good pitcher no matter which way they lean.

Hey -- smart young people who know gadgets. My mom wants to give me an XM player for Father's Day. What do I want to get? I would like something that I can use in my car (either over FM like an ipod or even hard-installed) and also carry around. For the carry around, can you play through a home stereo, or is it earpiece only?

Don't need a big MP3 memory or any other features; just want to be able to listen to games and hopefully some more interesting music than the same old Classic Rock I always land on.

19 I have the Pioneer Airware. It comes with a home it and car kit and it has a mini-antenna installed so it can work like a portable radio -- that antenna can be weak and doesn't work well, but there are accessories you can get to boost it.

The home kit comes with a big uni-diretional antenna; you hook the radio up to your stereo. The car kit comes with a little multi-directional antenna and you play it through your car's radio or cassette player.

I'm sure he has tremendous stuff. So tremendous that we can't unloose it on the world for more than three outs at a time, lest the world believe itself unworthy of the presence of such remarkable ability, and the rest of the league simply give up out of sheer terror.

I've never tried the FM transmitter in my car -- I use the cassette player.

I have an odd set-up at home -- long story short is that I often use the XM's FM transmitter inside my house. It works REALLY WELL so long as I don't move the XM too far from the FM radio I'm listening to.

Sam, I'm not a smart young gadget freak, but in my experience the cheap, Roady II is the best. $50 normally but occasionally on sale for $25. The real cost is in all the accesories. I have an extra car kit for my boat, a home kit for my stereo, a walkman-type adaptor, and a boom box.

All the pluging and unpluging is a minor hassle, and a few too many long wires, but it is well worth it. I can get the Dodger games where ever I am. Even in a cove on the river. Of course my river-going-mates aren't too thrilled when the game is on, but I figure they get to enjoy all the music the rest of the time, so I can be selfish.

Early Picks May Have Done Deals
12:46 p.m.: A source familiar with the negotiations says the teams and the players that will be picks at Nos. 2-3-4 have agreed to financial parameters. The Rockies will give Stanford righthander Greg Reynolds $3.25 million; the Devil Rays will pay Long Beach State third baseman Evan Longoria $3 million; and the Pirates will dole out $2.75 million to Houston righthander Brad Lincoln.
--Jim Callis

I actually get nervous about Stanford pitchers. It's just anecdotal, but a lot of them seemed burned out by the time Stanford coach Mark Marquess is through with them. Has anyone since Mussina done anything?

Okay so the toaster kicked out my comment from back when it was relavant, but here goes again anyway.
I was at the pitchers' duel at Sunken Diamond between Reynolds and Morrow, and Morrow was far more impressive, stuff-wise. Reynolds is a winner, but the buzz was that he doesn't "miss bats" and I would have to agree. But go with the proven commodity, I guess. But wow, if that's worth 3.5M, then maybe 2.98 was too low for Hochevar... Not that I'm saying the Dodgers should have caved...

45 I guess the Rockies didn't learn from the Expos and my old teammate Justin Wayne in 2000...

65. I dont get the Rockies taking Reynolds. They had a chance, and were looking at the best pitcher and best position player in the draft for months, and then at the last second pick a guy that shouldve been taken in the bottom half of the first round.

I'm pretty happy with Kershaw {{ahem, my prediction, clears throat}} and Morris so far. I don't understand a few of the other teams' picks but ours is not to reason why. I think the Tigers lucked out with Miller. As for the Royals, good luck with Hochevar/hopehegoesfar.

Brett Anderson is the most polished prep prospect in the draft. he pitches like a college pitcher and his 90-94 mph fastball is his 3rd best pitch! BA rated him as fastest to the majors out of the prep class.

Did you see this from Sickles? -- "No, wait, actually Kiker dropped because I found out what his "makeup" issue is. It is not steroids, and it is not public, and I can't discuss it further unless I get confirmation from other sources, but I take it a lot more seroiusly than I take the makeup stuff with Drabek."

87 Dreadfully silly and snoozeworthy. I guess after all the excitement of the first round they need some time to catch their collective breath? Gives the Dodgers more time to work a trade for their next pick.

45 Jon, Rick Helling did win 20 games once, and racked up a pretty decent careeer (almost reaching 100 wins). I think he's basically done now, but I tend to agree with you about Stanford pitchers.

Marquess does work his aces really hard. I believe Reynolds has 5 complete games in his last 6 starts, for example. Another recent Stanford ace, Jeremy Guthrie, once threw something like 150 pitches in a super regional game. He was one of the more dominant college pitchers in recent years, and he's basically been a bust, cracking the Indians' bullpen at times but failing to do much of anything.

Still, while questions of overuse seem legitimate to me, Stanford pitchers are inevitably more polished than HS pitchers, and tend to be more so than even most other college pitchers. Can't blame the Rockies, or any team, for taking a guy like Reynolds #2.

NY Daily News...
"Preston Mattingly, the son of hitting coach Don Mattingly, could be picked in the third or fourth round Tuesday - the Yankees, the Red Sox and Dodgers are the most interested clubs - and he will probably sign instead of taking a baseball scholarship to Tennessee. Scouts like Preston's athleticism - he was all-state in football as a receiver, honorable mention in basketball and could be named Indiana's "Mr. Baseball" this spring. He played shortstop in high school, but scouts say he's probably would be swtiched to a corner infield spot or the outfield if he goes pro."

BA scouting report for Mattingly. Seems like a true scouting pick. Definately not a Colletti pick.

For the son of a former batting champion and MVP like Don Mattingly, not to mention a multisport athlete in his own right, shortstop Preston Mattingly didn't get much exposure for most of the spring. He was a well-kept secret among a few scouts, so a lot of clubs didn't get a chance to crosscheck him. An all-state wide receiver in football and a 20-point-a-game scorer in basketball, he has plus speed and is much quicker than his father ever was. He's a 6-foot-3, 200-pound righthanded hitter with bat speed, pop and an advanced approach. The one thing Mattingly lacks is a definite position. For all his athleticism, his footwork and actions aren't smooth, and his arm is slightly below-average. He could get a look at third base or center field, but it's possible that he could wind up as nothing more than a physically gifted left fielder--in which case his bat would really have to carry him. The Yankees, for whom Don starred and currently serves as batting coach, are known to have interest in Preston and signed his brother Taylor as a 42nd-round pick in 2003. Other teams in the hunt include the Dodgers, Marlins, Orioles, Red Sox and Twins, and there may be enough competition for Mattingly to drive him into the first five rounds. He'll attend Tennessee if he doesn't turn pro.

Keep in mind something guys - the Dodgers don't have a pick again until mid 4th round. If they really really liked Mattingly he would most certainly have been gone before they picked. Why not take someone you want if you know you won't have another chance?

I suppose if the Dodgers had had a 2nd or 3rd round pick, they might have been willing to pass on Mattingly now and wait until the 2nd/3rd round. But evidently, they really wanted him, and weren't willing to risk waiting until their 4th round pick.

According to BA, he is a legit pick and there was some talk of either the Yankees or Red Sox picking him in the Supplemental picks or First Round even, because of his talent which was not well known, because he played so many sports, he didn't really focus on baseball. I have faith in Logan, and he obviously has proved himself out over time.

Sam, I find that it really depends on where you are. I have one for my iPod and works really well in most places, including DC. The only two places where I can't find a clear channel to transmit on are the southern section of the Jersey Turnpike, and anywhere within 15 miles of Manhattan.

129. I agree, Mattingley is a suprise, but Logan White has certainly earned my trust, I doubt seriously that money has anything to do with the pick. I like the idea of getting a good athlete, who's father says things like, "tell me how many walks and strikeouts a guy has, and Ill tell you what kind of season he had." This means that two of our first round picks are parent of coach's, the elder Mattingley is NY's hitting coach and Morris' dad was the coach at his college. Thats probably a good thing.

he played ss in high school, he is not going to play SS in the pros, but he has enough athleticism that BA thinks he could play CF. He is 6'3 200lbs, so he does have nice power potential.

Maybe White projects Mattingly to be better then Burke? Who knows. What I do think is that this was not a signability pick. we have more then enough money to get the players we want (sans boras clients)

Whenever the conversation turns to how you can figure out how a particular pitcher can pitch less, you've already lost the war. That discussion happened on both of the D-Backs picks, whoever they were.

141 I listened to part of Kershaw's interview. Was pretty brief. He said his favorite pitcher was Johan Santana, a pitcher he wants to model himself after. And agreed he needed to work on his change-up a bit to get to that level. And he's excited for the opportunity.

Preston Mattingly is Don Mattingly's son. This is definitely a reach, bc he wasnt even expected to go in the first 5 rounds. The kid actually was asked by Bruce Pearl to walk-on at Tennessee for the basketball team, but Mattingly decided to concentrate on baseball. He was almost assuredly going to go to UT unless he got drafted high. But I dont think he had any idea he'd be drafted this high.

If anything, he should fairly easy to sign. But I'm really surprised they used this high of pick on him.

Kershaw-- lets just hope he turns out. If he's the best available player, then you gotta take him.

I'm not sure about the other guy they drafted. I had never heard of him.

nate who's that huge outfielder you posted a video of at a homerun derby a while ago. I think he might have been right handed though.

that was billy rowell and he was left handed. he went #9 to the Orioles. I had Kershaw ranked over him.

158

I like Lars Anderson, he might fall because I've heard he has put a 1 million price tag on himself. If he is there in the 4th, we could dip into the hochevar fund and buy him out of his scholarship. he has big time power.

The Baseball draft is such a crap shoot though. If this is a good draft , then maybe 20% of the pitchers taken will make the major leagues. If its one of the poor ones, maybe 1 out of 20 will make it. Seriously, go back and look at the last 5-6 drafts and the 1st-2nd rd picks, and look at the numbers of pitchers taken vs the number that actually made it. Its staggering.

I think the Padres made the best and most least risky pick of the 1st round.

Conger's bat is really special. He is a switching hitter catcher with power from both sides of the plate. I think the question is, will he stick behind the plate? If he does, he becomes really valuable there, possibly turning into a Victor Martinez tyoe player on the offense side. And his name is Choi so thats awesome.

Not to reopen old wounds, but this Hochevar thing is just crazy. In addition to the talent we've just drafted, we could have had the guy who turns out to be the number one pick in the whole draft? And we don't because his demands were too rich for us, but apparently not for Kansas City?

183 - There wasn't ever any doubt he was a top-5 pick, talent-wise last year. The unknown "signability factor" obviously dropped him 35+ picks. This year, KC looking to make a splash agrees to meet his price with the first pick.

Now the question, does his price change now that he's #1 overall? I'd assume this was already worked out prior to the draft.

183. Its a win-win situation. KC gets to pick arguably the best pitcher from last years draft and not pay him typical #1 overall money, and Boras gets to justify his hold out by not only getting his cliet the money he was asking LA but also the prestige of the #1 pick.

189. because the key word theyre is "might", there are probably two dozen or more guys that you could say the same thing about. Morris might have the best righthanded breaking ball in the draft and might be an ace. Every player might be an allstar.

KC gets to pick arguably the best pitcher from last years draft and not pay him typical #1 overall money, and Boras gets to justify his hold out by not only getting his cliet the money he was asking LA but also the prestige of the #1 pick.

Boras comes out of this looking great. He had his client hold out a whole year, and the guy was still picked #1 overall the next year. Boras obviously knew that this draft class was weak, and told Hochevar he could still do well by holding out. It worked.

196. Because theyre the Royals, and this is what the Royals do. I could work out for them. $4 million is arguably #1 type money, but its below slot and the only players that go #1 and get that much are "signability" picks. I like how this year a Boras client is deemed a signability pick.

204. no, they passed on Hochevar because he wanted huge bonus and was a Boras client, he was considered for the #1 spot by Arizona for a while. He was arguably the best pitcher in the draft, although most liked Pelfrey better. On talent alone, Hochevar was a top 5-7 talent.

Canada's top prospects are all hitters, a good thing for them in a draft short on hitters. A Kentucky signee, outfielder Kyle Orr was beginning to stir up first-round rumors in a draft shy of power bats. While his 6-foot-5, 185-pound frame seems well-suited for the mound, and while Orr has some upside as a pitcher, it's his leverage-generating swing that teams covet. While he has relatively long arms, Orr has a real feel for hitting and generates tremendous power from the left side. Early in the spring, he was showing more power in batting practice than in game situations, struggling with strike-zone and pitch recognition, but he'd started to translate it to games more frequently as the draft approached. Orr's tools profile him for right field. He's a solid-average runner for now (though he'll probably be a below-average runner down the line as he fills out) and has average arm strength. His makeup is universally praised, and one scout compared him to Rangers outfielder Brad Wilkerson as a gritty grinder. He lacks present strength and may need to go in the first round to keep him from going to college. Orr had moved in as a darkhorse to go early as the draft approached, though, so his commitment to Kentucky may not be enough to get him on campus.

The Nationals have ended up with four of Jim Callis' projected first-round picks: Marrero, Willems, Black, and King. The Nationals took Stephen King (projects as a top-drawer SF/Horror writer) with the 91st pick, though Callis had him going at 13 to the Cubs.

he player shooting up draft boards as zero hour drew closer was Canadian teenager Kyle Orr, a slugger out of Victoria, B.C. Orr is Baseball America's top-rated prospect in Canada this year, and now people are talking about him as a possible pick at the end of the first round. Orr has been an outfielder and righthanded pitcher coming up as a teenager, though he'll hit as a professional. Scouts think he'll eventually end up in right field or first base. More important, they think he has the tools to be a middle-of-the-order hitter. He has huge power from the left side of the plate and crushes the ball in batting practice. He'll need a lot of minor league at-bats to show that power in games, but in a draft woefully short of impact bats, teams are starting to think Orr might be worth a shot. Orr is committed to Kentucky, and one scout said earlier in the spring--when Orr looked like a fourth- to seventh-round pick--that it would take first-round money to sign him away from college. Now Orr might just get it.

Kyle Orr! From my home province of British Columbia, the capital of Victoria, to be exact. This is a guy who would have been more predictable in the first supplemental round than Mattingly, so this is excellent. We wouldn't have picked Orr in the fourth round if he had not indicated he was signable as a 4th rounder.

228 and 232 I know it's a good thing, I was just playing to the hatred of those who only remember the present-day Green. If Orr could duplicate Green's career I'm sure we'd all be quite ecstatic.

His throw looks kinda funny in his video, makes me wonder how good of a pitcher he was. Seems more suited for 1B than RF if you ask me. He does have a very powerful swing though with that slight uppercut and explosive hip action.

I like the Orr pick a lot, too. Sounds like the only question is - can we convince him to sign instead of going to college? It will take more than 4th round money obviously, but since LA didn't have a 2nd or a 3rd, they can make it happen.

Smit is 6-3 and has a 93 mile an hour fastball. "I'd say there's a slight chance for him to sign," Whittemore said. "I think the odds are in our favor. He's set a pretty high number."

For Smit to sign, it would likely mean a Major League team would have to take him in the first five rounds, which would likely mean a signing bonus of at least $300,000. But Whittemore said he's heard talk that Smit could be taken anywhere from the third to 10th rounds.

Okay, anybody placing bets on when we take our first four-year college player? In 2002 and 2003, when White had autonomy, we didn't take a college player till our ninth pick in each year. Then DePo comes aboard and forces White to mix in the college guys (our third pick in 2004 went college), and White had to take Hochevar with our first pick last year because DePo wanted Hochevar. I am saying Round 9 is when we take our first college guy this year.

Not sure if this was linked in last night's game thread which I haven't gotten all the way through, and its offered up without endorsement or comment, but there's along interview with Ned Colletti up at the LA Times Blue Note blog. (Actually, it's half of a long interview.)

As far as I know, the Dodgers got these top two picks as compensation for Jeff Weaver leaving the club. I know there was some speculation last year that the Dodgers were shopping Weaver, or that other teams might've been interested.

For those who have a better idea of these players' worth, how do you think these two pitchers we just drafted compare to what we might've gotten for Weaver last year had we traded him?

275. Did Depodesta force White to take Orenduff, or did he only force white to take the college guys that you dont like? The only sources that claimed that Depodesta "forced" White to pick college guys are Gurnick and the clowns at the LA Times. When those are your sources, you have weak case.

274 -- Ruggiano and Alexander were 20 round plus guys, and nobody cares about those rounds. And DePo actually did not want Ruggiano because he didn't like Ruggiano's college stats. I am fine with Orenduff, actually, but I think White would have preferred to go for a higher-ceiling prep player with that pick if he hadn't had to keep DePo happy. Pedroza, hey, I'll keep my fingers crossed, but a 22-year-old hitter from a big college program who strikes out a whole lot in low A is not encouraging, and a Three True Outcomes hitter had to be a DePo man, not a White choice, all the way.

286 -- Orenduff was three years older when he was drafted than any other player White has drafted and signed in the first or first supplemental rounds, so his pro numbers reflect the age-versus-level of competition. The bottom line is, Orenduff has a lower ceiling than Billingsly, Loney, DeWitt, Elbert, and Miller (if Miller goes back to starting), and out of those five Orenduff was ranked ahead of only Miller in the last Baseball America Prospect Handbook, because of Miller's injury history. That is not saying that Orenduff is bad, he just lacks upside.

292 -- Bill Shelley, a scout.com and Dodger Dugout writer who reports on Dodger minor leaguers in Vero Beach and has access to Dodger personnel, has said that DePo told White not to waste his time with Ruggiano because of his college stats, but White deferred to a Dodger scout who really liked what he saw in Ruggiano and was a strong advocate for taking Ruggiano.

The bottom line is, Orenduff has a lower ceiling than Billingsly, Loney, DeWitt, Elbert, and Miller (if Miller goes back to starting

Have you looked at what Loney has done? Loney has no ceiling. He probably wont be a starting level player in the major leagues. DeWitt has shown nothing. Elbert's doing alright, but not as well as Orenduff did at Vero. Orenduff was 22 when he dominated Vero, and Elbert is 21 this year. Just 1yr differnce. Miller is a reliever thats had multiple surgeries already.

"Ceiling" is just a term that is useless when used on guys that havent done anything (like DeWitt, Loney). Because if someone has the "tools", then that will show up in the stats column. But so far, it hasnt for either player.

You better leave early so you can get in line for the ferry from North Sydney, Nova Scotia to Port aux Basques, Newfoundland.

It's overnight, although during the summer I think they run two of them.

It's probably about a 2-3 hour drive up the West Coast of Newfoundland to get to the park. I went in May and there were no other people in the park. Except there were caribou wandering around me, which I found disturbing. I was afraid they would attack me.

The park ranger laughed at me. But in a good natured Newfoundland sort of way.

309. there are so many things wrong in this post i dont know where to start, but im sure Canuck can pick up the slack, but getting as far as dewitt and loney have at their ages is quite an accomplishment in and of it self.

302 -- Orenduff is not ahead of Loney or DeWitt. That is not my biased opinion but how Baseball America ranks them. Miller is only behind Orenduff because he is in the bullpen now and has that injury problem in his past, but Miller's stock will rise considerably when his arm strength returns to normal and he is switched back to starting, as planned. Hammes, Tiffany, Johnson, and DeJesus were all 2nd rounders, not 1st supplemental rounders like Orenduff. Why bring the 2nd rounders into it at all, though you do admit that one 2nd rounder, Broxton, turned out better than the more highly-drafted Orenduff.

You know when you can officially judge a draft, and the players within it? When each player's career is officially over. Or at least, when a player is obviously going nowhere, or been solidly in the bigs for awhile. Until then, it's all conjecture. To not see these things with at least a little bit shade of gray is a little wrong-headed, in my opinion. To be judging guys who are still very young as not having done "anything" doesn't show a lot of respect or patience for the process.

Elbert is almost two and a half years younger than Orenduff, and other than wildness is putting up great numbers at Vero. He was also rated the top prospect in the SAL league last year, and Orenduff is stagnating in AA, so I don't see how you can claim Orenduff to be far superior.

Orenduff is not ahead of Loney or DeWitt. That is not my biased opinion but how Baseball America ranks them

Baseball America always ranks high schoolers ahead of college players. They are all about tools. Its how Ruben Mateo was gonna be like their next big star.

When people bring into account 'ceilings', 'tools', it just leaves bad impressions of Adrian Beltre in my mind. Or Chan Ho Park.. At some point what you actually have done takes precedence over what someone projects you to do.

Orenduff was born May 23, 1985. I wouldnt say he's stagnating at AA. He probably should be pitching at AAA, since his k/9 is still over 10. At some point, maybe a pitcher becomes bored. Ruggiano should also be in AAA.

You are right, I was just remembering his start to the season, nice to see that he has been turning it around. But I still think Elbert has the better pitches and simply needs to work on his control, from everything that I have heard.

329 -- Drafting college pitchers is not "evil." College pitchers with high ceilings are just at such a premium they are snapped up as quickly as possible, so when the Dodgers draft, the theoretical choice at a given slot is usually between a high schooler with better tools and greater potential but less polish versus a college pitcher with polish but less stuff and potential. It is simply the way the market plays out, and taking the under-valued high schoolers (under-valued because they are further away from the majors) is exploiting a market inefficiency.

Gotta love the nominated headlines: "Cain, Enabled", "Show Me the Mummy", and "Let My People Merlot". There is a nominated sports story by Steve Henson and Tim Brown, Los Angeles Times, "DePodesta on the Way Out". Best of all is this entry under Entertainment Hard News: "Adelphia and Porn". Some unintended comedy there.

Junior first-baseman Andy D'Alessio is one of 16 semi-finalists for the 2006 Dick Howser Trophy. The award goes to the nation's top college baseball player. In 53 games this season, he is hitting .327 with 18 home runs and 68 RBIs, and has committed just one error in the field. Criteria for consideration for the trophy include performance on the field, moral character, and courage, qualities that were exemplified by Dick Howser's life.

352. Not when determining if a player will be good enough to make the big leagues.

If I drafted a player that was 18, and he hadnt shown much improvement over his first 3yrs as a pro, I'm probably not going to think much of him. Now that would still only put him at 21. Some may argue he still has time left. But I'm not one that believes just by getting older, suddenly something clicks. Just turning 22 or 23 (aging) isnt going to make you a better player.

Looking at improvement/production as it relates to experience is far more important IMO.

Its the Adrian Beltre paradox. Some are optimistic about Beltre bc he always had age on his side. Others were negative on him, bc his improvement related to experience wasnt good. I was on the negative Beltre bandwagon. I dont care how young a guy is, if he's accumulated alot of pro experience and hasnt improved, he's probably wont no matter how many "years until his peak" he has left.

That's steady improvement for the first six years of his pro career. He did run into some trouble between 2001-2003, but even using your standards, I don't know how you could look at Beltre before age 21 and not have predicted he would be a good big leaguer. And I don't know how you would think there would be no difference between Beltre at age 21 and someone with the same numbers who was 24.

384. He didnt improve steadily once he got to the majors. That was the part of the example I was making about Beltre. Everyone thought he was young for his age being in the majors, so they didnt care if he improved bc they just kept referring back to his age and his counting stats he was racking up in reference to his young age.

At the minors, I look at improvement/experiernce over one's minor league career.

At the majors, that process starts all over. Improvement w)experience.

I think they are both more important thand just looking at a person's raw age.

As exciting as it is to be here arguing about minor leaguers' birthdays, I unfortunately have to get back to work. Maybe there will be a late round Piazza type in there somewhere today at the end. Cheers!

I probably made the Beltre example a little more complicated than need be.

Its basically this:

Beltre had a poor 2002 and got worse in 2003. The people that supported Beltre and thought he was a good player, would point to his age and say "We'll he's only 23"...Others would come back and say "But its his 3rd-4th yr in MLB and he should not be regressing, or stagnating"

I felt the latter. That plays into the example of minor leaguers. Say a minor leaguer has a really bad year at AA, is in his 4th yr in the minors, but is still only 21. To me, thats not acceptable. IF you are in your 4th yr, you should be well on your way to improving. There's no "we'll he's only 21" playing in the AA excuse. If you have sufficient professional experience, it doesnt matter how old you are, you should be expected to perform and improve. If you dont, its probably not ever gonna happen.

Bronx Banter commenters care more about petty little things like DFAing Terrence Long than the important issue of their lagging name-game picks. They started out strong, with Joba Chamberlain, but it's been all down hill from there. Casey Erickson? It's like they're not even trying any more.

"He doesn't have the footwork, the hands or the actions for shortstop and maybe not the range," the scout said. "He does have the best bat speed in my area, and my area is good. He's got 70 raw power, but it's hard to know how usable it is. He's represented by Jim Lentine, which really helps, and you can see he's got a chance to hit.

Sounds like a great pick. He has a bunch of talent, is a local kid, and will probably sign with us. I'm surprised that Ned agreed to this pick.

Here's what a scout said about him:
"He does have the best bat speed in my area, and my area is good. He's got 70 raw power, but it's hard to know how usable it is. He's represented by Jim Lentine, which really helps, and you can see he's got a chance to hit.

"But he's missed a lot of time and he's really raw. Plus, he's been painted as some kind of inner-city black kid thug, and that's not him. He's a good kid who's gotten a bad reputation."

"Nick just has to learn the work ethic that it will take for him to be successful," LaCour said. "He's a nice kid. He's not disrespectful. He has the tools; for him it's about controlling the beast in terms of his swing."

I like to see consistent improvement too, but if you are going to throw a player out after a regression, you're going to throw out a lot of good players. Baseball is a game of adjustments.

The thing with Beltre was his appendectomy. It's easy to speak with hindsight now, but the guy nearly died. If you've got someone better, great. But I think you could dismiss some people too easily - taking into account age seems very relevant.

Q: nate purcell from orange county, CA asks:
what are your thoughts on the Dodger's top 3 selections? How fast can Kershaw and Morris move through the system? Mattingly seems like a suprise, what does his bat project too? Any power potential there?
A:

John Manuel: I've like Morris a lot since last year; I thought he was the top prep RHP in the South, over Chaz Roe and Cody Satterwhite, and I think he'll move quickly. He has power stuff and he's athletic. Mattingly is a surprise in some ways, but it sounds like the Yankees wanted him at 41, and other teams liked him, so a team with extra picks such as the Dodgers could take him, if they don't sign him, they don't sign him. We hear the Dodgers checked in with the Mattingly family to make sure they would have Tyler sign with a team other than the Yankees, and I'd expect he would as the 31st overall pick. He's got a bat that excites a lot of scouts, but his position remains in doubt.

Compaired to other Orgs. I would say the D's are balanced towards HS picks. And HS picks can generally be associated with "high ceiling" players-tho perhaps more high risk.
This is appropriate for an org. that has a fairly good complement of up and coming young players. It is suitable if you have a good system for the near future. You have a bit of time to develop some good future players.

That Hochevar went No. 1 ticks me off , just on principle. I bet it means he got a pre-agreed 4 mil. But maybe no Major league contract. My question: If a team gives a draftee a Major League contract, does this mean a spot on the 40 man roster. Is anyone in the know?

I appreciate the logic of teams that draft college players more heavily than high school players because they believe college players are more likely to develop into big-league players, and sooner. Many would also argue that the majority of college players have less upside potential than a talented high school player. If we take these two assumptions as fact, I might argue that:

(1) A large-payroll team such as the Dodgers will typically not need to fill more than two or three roster spots per year with rookies (this year being an exception to the norm).

(2) If a team has a limited number of spots for everyday-caliber players, wouldn't such a team rather have one outstanding and one average prospect rather than four average prospects?

(3) Assuming the previous two points to be true, wouldn't it make more sense for such a team to draft younger, higher-upside players than lesser, older college-type talents that might make the majors sooner, but be easily replaceable?

I have read and understand tha math of drafting college players, but it seems to me that the Dodgers would do well (and have done well) with White's strategy of taking a broad portfolio of top HS talent and hoping two of them pan out into impact players. Obviously, taking a top college arm would be nice but you need a top-5 pick to do that, typically, and the Dodgers shouldn't ever be that bad.

442 - The problem with that is that you assume you can get the outstanding high school prospect, period. But one theory is that that's a crapshoot - especially with pitching - and that you can draft high school pitchers until the cows come home and not get one who will become a big league star.

444 That's fair. The broader points I was trying to make, and didn't communicate well are:

(1) The HS/College mix a team chooses in a given draft should depend on that team's own circumstances and organizational strategy rather than a generic league-wide picture (of course league-wide data about draft picks such as Dr. Jazayerli's series at BP should be examined when making these decisions).

(2) I suspect it's possible that the cost to acquire a Major-League player on the open market who will perform at the same level as a mature 2nd-5th round college draft pick is less than the cost of signing the draft pick PLUS the opportunity cost of a missed high-ceiling HS player that may or masy not pan out.

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions all around. I'm just throwing ideas out there for discussion.

When you're talking difference between $3 or $4 million, that million is actually about half a million when you hold out the taxes and agent's commission. They need to look at the net, not the gross.
On Hochevar, would you rather have paid him $3.5 to $4 million than pay that same amount to either of our first two picks today. White's ego cost us a good player.

448 - It's 1 million more, more opportunities (I would assume that it'd be easier to break into the Royals' rotation than the Dodgers'), and he may have gotten a ML contract (something I think the Dodgers weren't willing to do). But like 451 mentioned, you get hurt on your year off and you're risking losing it all.

(Deal... or no deal? Can you picture Luke trying to make the decision with Boras in the designated family area trying to speak over the crowd?)