Low California Birthrate Endangers Welfare State

A new report in the Los Angeles Daily News details the many dangers that California’s record-low birthrate holds for a state where there is constant political pressure to expand welfare spending, and where the cost of living continues to outpace inflation.

The pace of motherhood in California is slowing and its members are aging, a shift demographers expect to continue and contribute to far-reaching and uncertain changes in the decades to come.

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Births still more than replace deaths — factoring in immigration and longer lifespans, the four-county region is estimated to add 2.7 million people over the next two decades. But demographers warn the changing birth rate and population patterns may lead to a smaller workforce that will have to support more retirees, straining pension and health care systems.

The causes of the declining birth rates and delays in childbearing are both economic and a result of changing societal roles for women, who have more career and educational opportunities than in the past. Southern California’s cost of living also continues to outpace wages, and owning or renting a house to start a family now often requires two household earners.

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In California, what had been 20.4 seniors per 100 working-age residents in 2000 could climb to 28.6 in 2020, then to 38.3 in 2030, burdening old-age programs, the study found.

New immigrants can fill some of the gap, but not completely.

In December 2016, Breitbart News noted that the state’s birthrate had tumbled to the lowest level in its recorded history (original link):

California’s birth rate fell in 2016 to its lowest level in history in 2016, according to a new report by the California Department of Finance.

“The birth rate declined to 12.42 births per 1,000 population from 13.69 births per 1,000 population in 2010 Census – the lowest level in California’s history,” according to a press release from the department.