WILLAPA GAMES PLAYED

WILLAPA GAMES PLAYED

Hi everyone,

This is a update e mail on the CR 102 used to
set the 2014 Willapa Commercial seasons. Frankly I needed help as I knew that
misrepresentations were rather substantial by District 17 staff but as my Mom
said when I was a kid " knowing and showing are two different things. " So
thanks to the guys who helped me and here is what Mr. Hughes put forth!

" Results in an ex-vessel value of $594K
versus an ex-vessel value of $705K if we used the 2013 seasons. These are
relative values because there is very small number of unmarked hatchery fish
included in the calculations that the commercial sector would be required to
release. "

" Provides the recreational sector with
38% of the Chinook harvest and 22% of the Coho harvest. This compares to the
average from 2003-2012 of 34% of the Chinook and 10% of the Coho.
"

The reveiw below is
from a citizen who reviewed just those TWO lines above. More to come later but
frankly the review speaks volumes as to the attempts by D 17 staff to
misrepresent the 2014 Commercial CR 102. ( WAC's for the commercial season )

I feel you should be aware that we believe
the presentation materials and discussion points circulated with the Willapa
model and 2014 CR 102 are inaccurate and will be considered misleading by
members of the public.

The bullet points in the presentation implies
that the commercial season was cut substantially this year versus last using ex
vessel sales projections created by inserting the 2013 season in the model and
comparing it with the same for the proposed 2014 season. WDFW's presentation
states:

Results in an ex-vessel value of $594K versus
an ex-vessel value of $705K if we used the 2013 seasons. These are relative
values because there is very small number of unmarked hatchery fish included in
the calculations that the commercial sector would be required to
release.

The model uses Cell X51 in calculating ex
vessel values. We believe this cell has a formula problem (missing parenthesis)
that values coho at approximately $1 per fish. If corrected, we believe the
ex-vessel value for the proposed season in the 2014 CR 102 is
$743,832.

More concerning, a comparison for sport
harvest in the next bullet point implies the rec fisher will catch more fish in
2014 than previously. WDFW's presentation states:

Provides the recreational sector with 38% of
the Chinook harvest and 22% of the Coho harvest. This compares to the average
from 2003-2012 of 34% of the Chinook and 10% of the Coho.

The Department's decision to create a 10 year
average and insert it into the presentation following the commercial "this year
versus last" does not provide the viewer the similar comparison that is implied.
Substituting a decade long average for the 2013 percentage of harvest
substantially lowered the percentage of sport harvest from 2013 creating an
impression of a dramatic increase occurring in sport harvest with the 2014
proposal. When one compares the 31.3% of the coho harvest by sports last year
with the 22% expected in the 2014 season proposal it shows sports fishers will
actually lose 9.3% to the commercial interests for coho this year.

The Department forecasts show a significant
increase in returning Coho salmon that many challenge as unrealistically high.
The increased forecast results in the model predicting a dramatic increase in
the numbers of Coho returning to Willapa Bay in 2014 and therefore, more Coho
being caught this year than last by both sports and commercials. Using "impacts"
or the number of fish actually expected to be caught by the model, the following
table shows commercial harvest of Chinook is down from 2013 and the sport catch
is projected higher. However, when coho numbers are combined with Chinook, the
model shows the 2014 proposed season for commercial nets will result in a impact
gain for the commercials of 14,112 and only 2024 for the sport
sector.

*2013
**2014 2014 Difference

Nets Chinook 15,303 12,026
-3,277

Sport Chinook 5870 6,809 939

Nets coho 11545 28,934
17,389

Sport coho 5267 6,352
1,085

Nets +/- Total Fish
14,112

Sport =/- Total Fish
2,024

*Chinook & Coho "Harvest info"
tabs

** WB Planning Model 2014
tabs

The Willapa planning model predicts the 2014
season proposal will result in commercial and sport interests increasing harvest
by 16,136 total fish (Chinook & Coho combined). Of that number, 87% of the
increase in combined catch numbers will incur on the commercial side and only
13% on the sport side. Using a comparison of the fish counts expected to be
caught this year versus last leaves an opposite perception than the one created
by WDFW using a 10 year average in percentages and ex vessel sales that were
miscalculated by a formula error in the model.

This commentary relates the Willapa planning
model supplied by WDFW and reportedly used when creating the season installed in
the CR 102 for 2014. XXXXXXXX has repeatedly expressed numerous other concerns
over other problems in the model that effect its reliability. Those concerns
remain unchanged.