Reports

In 2016/17, Vietnamese students enrolled in US colleges and universities contributed $818 million to the US economy, according to the Open Doors 2017 report. (Source: US Department of Commerce) Keep in mind that those data are from fall 2016 and are limited to higher education.

Let’s update and extrapolate using SEVIS data from December 2017. This includes both higher education and secondary enrollment. The latter refers to day and boarding schools. And let’s use the same figure: $36,456 per student.

As of the end of 2017, there were 31,389 Vietnamese studying in the US. Here’s the breakdown for the aforementioned categories:

Higher education: 23383 * $36,456 = $852,450,648 (Note: This includes both undergraduate, graduate students and recent graduates with OPT status, taking into account that a sizable number of currently enrolled students at both levels receive varying levels of scholarship support. Remember, this is about economic impact not the total amount being paid by Vietnamese parents for their children’s education and living costs in the US.)

Secondary education: 4129 * $36,456 = $150,526,824 (I used the OD number. This is a reasonable estimate knowing that many boarding schools are in the 40-55k range with day schools costing much less. (Feel free to question these figures, dear reader. If I err, it is hopefully on the conservative side.)

Drum roll… The total economic impact of Vietnamese students on the US economy is… over $1 billion: $1,070,002,472. Now THAT’s significant economic impact.

This amount does not include other categories that involve Vietnamese nationals or their Vietnamese sponsors spending money in the US such as other vocational school (36), flight school (121), primary school (141), and other (898).

The always popular issue of how much Vietnamese parents are spending on their children’s education and living expenses in the US is another matter. One can assume that it’s a significant percentage of the total economic impact amount.

Addendum: The Vietnamese media routinely use the $3 billion figure when talking about how much parents spend on overseas study for their children. Unlike fine wine, that number is not aging well with the passage of time. In fact, the actual number is even higher, given the fact that there are more Vietnamese students than even studying abroad, including over 140,000 in the top five host countries alone: 1) Japan; 2) USA; 3) Australia; 4) China; and 5) the UK.

A colleague recently sent me this report with the above title. (Thank you, K!) Yeah, I know; it’s not most people’s idea of a good time but it is interesting to wonks like me who follow these trends in the field (and industry) of international education. Information is power, right? OK, if not power, then at least it has the potential to give you more insights and the ability to make more accurate predictions than a crystal ball.

Here’s an excerpt from the report about the purpose of providing this data, at least on an annual basis: This report analyzes the overstay rates to provide a better understanding of those who overstay and remain in the United States beyond their period of admission with no evidence of an extension to their period of admission or adjustment to another immigration status. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has determined that there were 50,437,278 in-scope nonimmigrant admissions to the United States through air or sea POEs who were expected to depart in FY 2016, which represents the majority of annual nonimmigrant admissions. Of this number, DHS calculated a total overstay rate of 1.47 percent, or 739,478 individuals. In other words, 98.53 percent of the in-scope nonimmigrant visitors departed the United States on time and abided by the terms of their admission.

There are two categories: total overstay rate and suspected overstay rate. Think of the latter as the net version of the former. As the report points out, its purpose is “to provide a better picture of those overstays who remain in the United States beyond their period of admission and for whom there is no identifiable evidence of a departure, an extension of period of admission, or transition to another immigration status.” In other words, these are the people who have simply disappeared, presumably to surface later with legal status. Or not.

At the end of FY 2016, there were 628,799 Suspected In-Country Overstays. The overall Suspected In-Country Overstay rate for this type of traveler is 1.25% of the expected departures. When you consider that over 50 million foreigner visitors entered the US in FY16 and that 98.75% of them did indeed return home, that’s not too shabby.

The report is broken down into “nonimmigrants admitted to the United States for business or pleasure, i.e., B1 and B2 visas, and student and exchange visitors (F, M, and J visas). The average suspected in-country overstay rate for FY 2016, excluding Canada, Mexico, and students, was 1.90%.

Just to give you an idea of how Viet Nam compares to many other countries with students studying in the US, here is a list of some with much higher overstay rates in descending order. Asian countries are in navy blue.

Eritrea: 75.21% (117)

Burkina Faso: 46.78% (699)

Chad: 36.77% (68)

Congo (Kinshasa): 36.56% (517)

Djibouti: 33.33% (21)

Libya: 31.85% (1,036)

Congo (Brazzaville): 23.88% (201)

Equatorial Guinea: 20.42% (284)

Côte d’Ivoire: 17.09% (755)

Ethiopia: 21.71% (1,110)

Fiji: 15.84% (101)

Gabon: 23.40% (406)

The Gambia: 29.08% (196)

Benin: 31.25% (400)

Cameroon: 28.68% (889)

North Korea: 27.27% (11)

Togo: 26.14% (176)

Guinea: 26.12% (157)

Central African Republic: 25.93% (127)

Moldova: 25.49% (2,299)

Nepal: 23.50% (2,873)

Nigeria: 22.74% (8,034)

Bhutan: 22.42% (165)

Burundi: 20.96% (167)

Somalia: 20.00% (25)

Cabo Verde: 18.40% (125)

Mali: 17.19% (349)

Iraq: 16.54% (1,300)

Afghanistan: 15.83% (556)

Kyrgyzstan: 14.41% (666)

Malawi: 14.40% (250)

Tajikistan: 13.37% (486)

Liberia: 13.30% (218)

Ukraine: 12.90% (826)

Senegal: 12.59% (657)

Guinea-Bissau: 12.50% (8)

Serbia: 12.46% (4,800)

Kenya: 12.28% (2,326)

Niger: 12.07% (174)

Papua New Guinea: 12.03% (158)

Tonga: 11.29% (176)

Bangladesh: 11.03% (3,237)

Macedonia: 10.98% (1,658)

Uganda: 10.65% (3,273)

Syria: 10.35% (599)

Sudan: 10.30% (304)

Rwanda: 9.73% (997)

Haiti: 9.67% (982)

Uzbekistan: 9.48% (1,181)

Mongolia: 9.44% (2,399)

Zambia: 9.42% (414)

Mauritania: 9.40% (117)

Timor-Leste: 9.38% (32)

Turkmenistan: 9.16% (371)

Maldives: 8.11% (74)

Sri Lanka: 8.74% (1,774)

Burma (Myanmar): 8.59% (1,036)

Namibia: 8.63% (139)

Albania: 8.34% (779)

Viet Nam: 8.15% (14,878)

Several points stand out.

While Viet Nam is at the lower end of the spectrum among these 60 countries in terms of percentage, it has one of the highest suspected in-country overstay rates in Asia. In terms of numbers, 1,213 young Vietnamese were out-of-status last year. Compare that to China, which ranks first in the number of students it sends to the US with 360,334 last year. The suspected in-country overstay rate was only 2.09%. The days of the brain drain are clearly over. It’s obvious that quite a few young Vietnamese are using the F-1 (in most cases) as a backdoor means of emigration. (This assertion is also based on anecdotal evidence.)

Many of these countries have relatively few students in the US, i.e., fewer than 500.

Many of the countries are war-torn and/or desperately poor, due to war and other factors.

Keep in mind that this percentage is higher in some parts of Viet Nam than others, i.e., those with people who have relatives in the US, mostly in the former Republic of Viet Nam (South Vietnam). These data are reported to the US Mission, the Consulate in HCMC, in particular, and could have an impact on consular officers’ decisions for applicants coming from areas with a higher overstay rate.

Note: Whenever I deal with statistics, I’m often reminded of the following quote, which was popularized by Mark Twain, who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Not included in the above statistics are international students who remain in the country legally, e.g., through marriage or a work (H1-B) visa. Thus, neither country really knows how many young Vietnamese come home after completing their studies and/or an Optional Practical Training (OPT) work experience on a F-1 visa. Another unknown variable is the number of graduates to move to a third country for study or work.

According to the latest Mapping SEVIS by the Numbers update from last month, there are currently 31,389 Vietnamese students in the US at all levels of the education system. (2.59% of all international students in the US are from Viet Nam.)

Viet Nam remains in 5th place sandwiched between Saudi Arabia, which experienced the sharpest decline among the top 10 sending countries, and Canada, which saw a small increase from May 2017.

Here are two changes from the end of the 2016/17 academic year to now that likely signal trends:

1) A decrease in the percentage of Vietnamese students enrolled in “language training” from 10.7% to 8.5%.

2) An increase in the percentage of Vietnamese undergraduates enrolled in four-year schools from 29.7% to 31.8%. (To put this in perspective, 90% of all Vietnamese undergrads in the US were enrolled in a community college in 2009/10.)

Source: SEVIS (DHS)

The top 10 host states remained the same. The only change is that Pennsylvania displaced Florida. Massachusetts, which remained in 4th place, saw the most significant increase.

Source: SEVIS (DHS)

CA: 6175

TX: 5232

WA: 2548

MA: 1815

NY: 1396

PA: 1276

FL: 1223

IL: 967

VA: 889

GA: 712

While there are Vietnamese students in all 50 states, 71%, rounded up, are studying in these 10 states, a statistically insignificant decrease from May 2017. This, of course, means that 29% are in the remaining 40 states and Puerto Rico, which has one (1).

To drill down a bit deeper, 44.45% are in California, Texas, and Washington state. I discuss some of the reasons for this in a September 2017 article I wrote for VNExpress International. (The bluer the state, the more Vietnamese students are studying there.)

Stay tuned for a post in which I analyze this information in light of other trends in what I refer to as the perfect storm of converging factors that include the recent spike in the number of Vietnamese students studying in Canada, increasing competition within and outside of the US, and various sociopolitical factors.

Viet Nam ranks 5th in two US-related categories: the number of its young people studying there as of last June and the number of its citizens who emigrated there in Fiscal Year 2017, which ended on 30 September 2017. (Viet Nam is a “top ten” country in other categories, including EB-5 cases and US real estate purchases in 2016/17.)

The breakdown for Viet Nam is as follows, along with an official definition of each category:

Immediate relatives: 9,974 (Certain immigrants who because of their close relationship to U.S. citizens are exempt from the numerical limitations imposed on immigration to the United States. Immediate relatives are: spouses of citizens, children (under 21 years of age and unmarried) of citizens, and parents of citizens 21 years of age or older.)

Special Immigrants:53A special immigrant is a person who qualifies for a green card (permanent residence) under the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) special immigrant program. In order to apply for immigration documents under this status, an individual must fill out a petition documenting his or her circumstances and submit the petition to USCIS.

Family Preference: 17,991U.S. immigration law allows certain foreign nationals who are family members of U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents to become lawful permanent residents (get a Green Card) based on specific family relationships.

Employment Preference: 665Approximately 140,000 immigrant visas are available each fiscal year for aliens (and their spouses and children) who seek to immigrate based on their job skills. If you have the right combination of skills, education, and/or work experience and are otherwise eligible, you may be able to live permanently in the United States. There are five employment-based immigrant visa preferences, including the popular EB-5 immigrant investor program in which Viet Nam ranks a distant second to China.

Diversity Immigrants: 0 The Diversity Immigrant Visa Program (DV Program) makes up to 50,000 immigrant visas available annually, drawn from random selection among all entries to individuals who are from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States. The number is 0 because Viet Nam has a high rate of emigration to the US.

Finally, 36 visas were issued under the Vietnam Amerasian category. Immigrant visas are issued to Amerasians under Public Law 100-202 (Act of 12/22/87), which provides for the admission of aliens born in Vietnam after January 1, 1962, and before January 1, 1976, if the alien was fathered by a U.S. citizen. Spouses, children, and parents or guardians may accompany the alien. Of the estimated 50,000 Amerasian children born during the war, 21,000 of them and more than 55,000 family members were permitted to emigrate to the US under the Amerasian Homecoming Act of 1987. Only about 3% of Ameriasians in the US have found their fathers. The rest are in Viet Nam, many in HCMC. (Here’s a related story from 2015 and a more recent one about a father-daughter reunion.)

TOTAL: 28,719

The dynamics of push and pull are obvious here, given the fact that people from these countries represent large ethnic minority populations in the US. For example, Mexican-Americans comprise 11.2% of the population.

Vietnamese immigrants are 5.1% of the worldwide total (559,536) with nearly as many Vietnamese moving to the US as immigrants from all of South America (30,242). Vietnamese-Americans are the fourth-largest Asian American group after Chinese-, Indian-, and Filipino-Americans. The US Census Bureau estimates the total population of Vietnamese-Americans (Việt kiều) to be just over 2 million, which is about 44% of the world’s overseas Vietnamese.

Where Do They Live?

California and Texas have the highest concentrations of Vietnamese-Americans with 40% and 12%, respectively. Those states are also #1 and #2 in student enrollment with 6,171 in CA and 5,221 in TX, as of May 2017, according to the SEVIS by the Numbersquarterly update, for a two-state total of 11,392. This means that two states out of 50 and Puerto Rico, which had one (1) student from Viet Nam, hosted 38% of all Vietnamese students, at the end of the 2016/17 academic year.

Another interesting observation is that the percentage of young Vietnamese studying in CA was significantly lower than the percentage of Vietnamese-Americans living in that state (20.38%), while in Texas it was slightly higher (17.24%).

Other states with sizable concentrations of Vietnamese-Americans are Washington (4%), Florida (4%), and Virginia (3%). It’s probably not a coincidence that these are among the top 10 host states for Vietnamese students. There are also significant numbers of Vietnamese-Americans in Atlanta and New York, among other cities.

Vietnamese in the U.S. Fact Sheet

In its series on social and demographic trends in the US, the Pew Research Center has produced fact sheets on Asians in the US, including Vietnamese-Americans. It includes fairly up-to-date information about population, English proficiency, length of time in country, educational attainment, poverty rate, demographics, and social class. For example, you can see how Vietnamese-Americans fare when compared with all Asians in the US in median annual household income, as well as the same income for US born vs. foreign born. (The overall US median household income was $56,516 that year.)

What Does It All Mean?

There are estimated 96 million Vietnamese, which means that the emigration of 28,719 of them to the US, most from southern Viet Nam, is a drop in the statistical bucket. In case you’re wondering, that’s .03% of the population.

Why do they go? There are several reasons, most related to the pull factor. The most obvious one is that so many Vietnamese in parts of the country that were in the former Republic of Viet Nam have so many relatives in the US. Others, some of which overlap, are the often mistaken belief that the grass is greener, marriage (arranged or based on love), and employment-based cases.

In the meantime, growing numbers of overseas Vietnamese are relocating to Viet Nam, most likely in the thousands not tens of thousands, some to join a dynamic and promising startup scene, others to do non-profit work and still others simply to retire in their homeland. The Vietnamese government has taken a number of steps to make them feel more welcome, including dual citizenship and the right to buy property. (Many of those who have no intention of returning home are sending billions of dollars home in the form of remittances. Viet Nam ranks 9th in that particular category with about 50% of those transfers coming from the US.)

Taking Advantage of a Golden Opportunity: They Did It for the Children

I know of one couple who emigrated to the US through the Orderly Departure Program (ODP) created in 1979 under the auspices of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) as a way of allowing the immigration of Vietnamese affiliated with the Republic of Viet Nam government or military. In this case, the man was a low-ranking soldier in the RVN army, like so many, and a farmer by trade.

Why did they take advantage of the opportunity to emigrate? Not because they were persecuted or discriminated against but as a way to give their children a better education and future. Mission accomplished. What are their future plans? To return to Viet Nam for retirement because they really don’t like living in the US and they want to die and be buried in their hometown (quê hương). Their children will likely remain.

BONUS: There is Some Truth to This Particular Stereotype

It’s well-known that overseas Vietnamese and nail salons go hand in hand. I’ve heard it used by consular officers as a reason why some student applicants are denied. As the story goes, they say (“used to say” might be more accurate, since times have changed) that they plan to live with an aunt in San Jose and study at a local community college or university. Said aunt just happens to own a nail salon that her niece will probably end up working in, illegally, of course. It is a family business, after all.

In fact, according to the Wikipedia entry on Vietnamese-Americans and based on a reliable source,

Nail-salon work is skilled manual labor which requires limited English-speaking ability. Some Vietnamese Americans see the work as a way to accumulate wealth quickly, and many send remittances to family members in Vietnam. Vietnamese entrepreneurs from Britain and Canada have adopted the U.S. model and opened nail salons in the United Kingdom, where few had existed.

This trend occurs in Europe for the same reasons. Like the restaurant and other service sector businesses, labor costs are low and profit is high.

This November 2017 report from World Education Services (WES) provides an excellent overview of education in Viet Nam, including structure, issues, and trends. Here are some of its shortcomings.

Given that it was probably completed in October, the author could have updated most, if not all, all of the statistics. One had the feeling that the report had been collecting dust for a while. For example, the he uses UNESCO Institute of Statistics data in the section on outward student mobility stating that Between 1999 and 2016, the number of outbound Vietnamese degree students exploded by fully 680 percent, from 8,169 to 63,703 students. In fact, there are more than 120,000 students in the top five host countries alone: Japan, USA, Australia, China, and the UK.

There are also some hot issues that are not included such as foreign investment in education and the current shift taking place among young Vietnamese studying overseas.

It would have made for a better report if the author had shared a draft with various Viet Nam education experts, both Vietnamese and expat, to ensure accuracy. For example, his statement that Fulbright University Viet Nam (FUV) is a “non-profit university recently set up by Harvard University,” is not entirely correct. It is in fact a binational university build on the foundation of the Fulbright Economics Teaching Program (FETP), which is a Harvard initiative. (FUV actually deserved its own paragraph, including a few sentences about the misguided appointment of Bob Kerrey, self-confessed war criminal, as chairman of its board of trustees.)

Finally, the author uses mostly (exclusively?) English language sources, which necessarily limits the perspective and scope of the report. It would have been better if he had teamed up with a Vietnamese colleague.

According to the World Bank, Viet Nam ranked a close 9th to Bangladesh in 2016 in total remittances with an infusion of $13.4 billion.

With a 2016 GDP of $202.6 billion this means that 6.6% of Viet Nam’s GDP was attributed to remittances. (See GDP definition below.)

Where Does the Money Go?

According to the State Bank of Vietnam HCMC Branch, a report released in early 2016 indicated that 70% of remittances went to production and business projects, while 21.6% went to the real estate market and 7% was spent on families’, i.e., relatives’, daily lives, healthcare and education services.

One result of the decrease in the dollar interest rate to 0% a couple of years ago has been more money flowing into real estate. (HCMC has one of the hottest real estate markets in the world.) The rationale behind the official decision to lower the USD interest rate to nothing was to prevent people from hoarding dollars.

Here is an overview of Viet Nam-bound remittances from 2006 to 2015. (Source: WB)

Another way to make money with money is simply to have foreign currency converted to VND and park it in a CD account. Current savings interest rates are in the 7-8% range, considerably higher than in the sending countries. This reflects the growth of the domestic credit market and explains why so many banks are doing so well.

Remittances are one of the benefits of having a large diaspora and one reason why the term “brain drain” is not a useful description of what happens when people emigrate for whatever reason. There are about 4.5 million overseas Vietnamese nearly half of whom are in the US. Vietnamese-Americans send 60% of the total. This also includes money sent by Vietnamese working overseas on a work visa. The majority is sent by overseas Vietnamese.

Future Prospects

It was predicted earlier this year that the decrease in remittances would continue, especially from the US, because of tighter restrictions on immigration to the US that would primarily affect illegal immigrants and those with a work visa. (These individuals comprise up to 38% of all workers in the US from the Philippines, Viet Nam, and India.)

In fact, it is estimated that Ho Chi Minh City will most likely receive a total of $5.2 billion in 2017, an increase of 6% from 2016. Let me go out a limb here and say “As HCMC goes, so goes the country.” ​(Viet Nam’s economy grew at the fastest rate in a decade this year and slightly higher than the government target of 6.7% exceeding the 6.21% for 2016.)

The November estimate was $5.7 billion, which was revised downward because of plans by the US Federal Reserve System to increase interest rates several times next year. Another unknown variable is the VND/USD exchange rate, for which an “upward trend” is predicted “in the next four or five months”. The VND has been stable for a number of years, thanks to government policy. This means that there is virtually no difference on a given between the bank and “black market” rates.

Definition of GDP from The World Bank: It’s useful from time to time to actually define terms, even if they are seemingly well-known. Here’s the definition that the World Bank uses: GDP at purchaser’s prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used.

Here’s another excellent report from World Education Services about an important issue that receives too little attention in the US and global media. This is an issue I have been writing and speaking about since my IIE-Viet Nam days. In fact, it was one of my “signature issues” and one that I have continued to focus on from time to time. (Explore my blog for more information.)

The above quote is one I’ve used when talking about this issue. It refers not only to diploma mills but to institutions that offer substandard education and training, and are basically money-making machines, regardless of whether they are for- or non-proft. This includes nationally accreditation institutions, many of which are in accreditation “no man’s land,” since the dissolution of ACICS. (Check out this 2016 BuzzFeed investigative report that was the beginning of the end for ACICS.) As the above graphic points out, many are located in the US and in California, in particular.

Thankfully, this is less of an issue in Viet Nam ever since the government, through its Ministry of Education and Training (MoET), said it would no longer recognize degrees earned from unaccredited institutions, i.e., rogue providers, nor would it allow Vietnamese institutions to partner with these bottom-feeding institutions. There is also much more awareness about the value of institutional and programmatic accreditation as a means of quality assurance and maintenance.