Gameweek 5 Review – Lambert Strikes

Musings from Gameweek 5

Defoe Keeps on Scoring

After my many weeks of predicting Adebayor’s return, Defoe torments me with a continued supply of goals. To be fair to myself, I couldn’t see how Villas-Boas could bench him after his brace last Gameweek, and he duly delivered once again. Each goal he scores more firmly grows his roots in the first team and should secure a start next Gameweek.

Everton’s Start is No Fluke

It’s hardly rocket science, but Everton’s start seems like a foundation for a solid season, rather than a series of flukey wins. Baines, Fellaini, and Pienaar are great buys considering Everton’s form and schedule, while Anichebe is a decent short-term punt. The stats back the players up: Baines has the most chances created (24), Fellaini the third most shots taken (16), and Pienaar is in the top 20 in both (12 chances created and 11 shots taken). Anichebe’s stats are also impressive, with 11 shots and two goals.

Van Persie Delivers

Despite a quiet game, Van Persie delivered again, courtesy of a Valencia won penalty. I still think he’s too expensive but what he gives Fantasy managers is a clear captain’s pick every Gameweek. We have yet to see whether he will be rotated when Rooney returns; that would kill his Fantasy value. However, if Ferguson decides to build his team around Van Persie, he could yet justify his price tag.

Mid Priced Forward Options

The Torres blank and Tevez starting starting on the bench made me think about the plethora of valid mid-range forward options. A case could be made for Ba, Lambert, Fletcher, Defoe, Crouch, Zamora, and Berbatov. You even have the punt worthy Rodallega, Lukaku, and Anichebe (in the short term, at least) to think of.

This could be the first season since the holy trinity of Lampard, Gerrard, and Ronaldo, where successful teams are based on a a combination of mid-ranged forward options combined with midfield heavy hitters.

Highest Round Scores

Speaking of mid-ranged forwards, the top ten scoring forwards for Gameweek 5 all cost under £7.8. To contrast this, out of the top ten midfielders, four cost £8.9 or higher.

Lambert

Lambert is looking an exciting Fantasy prospect, with four goals in five games plus an assist. He will be Southampton’s focal point in most games and has been a reliable goalscorer throughout his lower league adventures. With all the options available, he’s not an obvious pick, but one to watch out for. And of course, his price will rise quickly after Sunday so pick him up early if you are going for him.

Baines

Baines’s statistics do not indicate he is a defender. With 24 chances created and 5 shots it’s almost irrelevant that he gets Fantasy points for clean sheets. At £7.1 (at the time of the writing of this article, likely higher when you read it), his statistics would make him a valid pick as a midfielder. This makes him an excellent player to have or buy, especially taking into account clean sheets, 5 points for a goal, bonus points for a defender scoring, and Everton’s form and fixtures.

Gameweek 5 Captain Picks

I’m documenting whether I’m passing the test with my captain picks. If a captain pick scores over three points in the Gameweek it is considered a success and I am also noting double digit Gameweek scores.

In the Friday Foreplay for Gameweek 5 I recommended Bale, Tevez, and Hazard as the captain picks. Bale grabbed an assist and bonus points while Tevez started on the bench and Hazard returned a blank.

Quality of captain picks:

Good captain picks: 8/15

Double digit captains: 3/15

Comments

Good summary, Gummi. Although I own him, I tend to agree RvP is too expensive. Except he keeps on scoring. Like Tevez and Aguero, I think we can expect rotation but even if these 3 get 22-28 starts, they will likely be near the top of the goal scorers chart. I think all 3 are definite “hold” guys and you can nicely put some of the 6.0-8.0 guys alongside – even 2 of these low/mid priced guys to rotate alongside your MUN/MNC forward asset.

Good discussion on midpriced forwards – one other guy I thought has looked good is Villa’s Betenke. Another in that ~6.5 price area.

I also think, at least at St. James, Ben Arfa has to become part of the armband discussion. That selection saved my week.

Everton look very sharp going forward. I thought the CS was a bit fortuitous as Swansea had plenty chances. But if you think of Baines as an attacking player, Baines, Fellaini, Pienaar all look well worth having. The thing with Baines is that his attacking numbers resemble a midfielder and you would certainly not be reluctant to pay 7.1-7.5 for a midfielder who year in and year out is +130 FF points.

That’s the point with Baines. Chris has preached for so long about the myth of the attacking defender that I was so hesitant to buying Baines until I simply thought of him as an extra midfielder.

One thing in the discussion of buys and sells that I feel is often forgotten is the “loss” of price rises when you sell a player. For example, I got Tevez in for £9.1 and could sell him for £9.5. However, if I wanted him back in the near future I would have to splash out a cool £9.9. This often dissuades managers from selling, often for far too long after it is clear that the Fantasy production isn’t there anymore.

I had an opportunity to grab Baines (or A.Cole) last week for Zabaleta and passed it up, bringing in Dembele for McClean. Ya, ouch. I watch Dembele with both Fulham and Tottenham and can’t figure out why this guy doesn’t score big; great passer of the ball, runs at people, can’t take the ball off him and he works his ass off. Unfortunately, I’ve already brought in Berbatov for Graham this week to avoid Berbatov’s price rise so the money is gone to get Baines. I may have to take my first hit since last April and get in Pienaar for . . . Dembele.

I agree with your point on finances and high cost forwards. I’ve had Tevez since GW1 and wildcarded RvP in at 13.0, so it would cost me dear to move them and then get them back. Both are season keepers to me though, barring injury or unless either looks like dropping to less than ~2500 min (28 starts). If both play ~2500 min, I can’t see anything less than +190 FF points with 5-6 huge hauls. I know there are lots of mid-priced forwards but name a forward besides these 2 and aside from Adebayor, Rooney, and Aguero who is capable of that number. Even the flavor of the week – Lambert – can we seriously expect a big improvement on Graham or Holt (comparable in style and quality of team with Lambert) from last year (138 FF points each)? Probably not. So, the big units – like RvP, Tevez, Aguero, Adebayor (if he ever gets back in the lineup!), Rooney all represent good value if uninjured or not subject to more than occasional rotation.

The one joker in the deck to me is Berbatov. Even if you go back before his MUN days, when he was with a top-10 side at TOT, he was a FF animal with 2 seasons at 169 and 177.

Yup, I know where you are coming from. I passed on my opportunity to get RvP in and now he is just too expensive at 13.5. I would do the exact same as you, if I had both.

What you will focus on, I guess, is extracting as much value as you can get from mid-priced midfielders. Just goes to show that there is no one right way to play the game.

I have Torres and will possibly keep him until I see how Rooney’s form is when he gets back. With so many going for RvP, Rooney could be a surprising differential. We don’t know how they will play together, but my guess is that both will be involved in the goals. Again, the big question is how Ferguson will handle the rotation around the Champions League.

I agree with Berbatov. My hunch is that he will be the most popular player come the end of the season, providing Fantasy points at or near an elite striker’s level for a lower price.

On a side note, I feel that the prices are rising so quickly this season that it’s become a must to move fast if you are going for a popular choice. I wanted Baines and Fellaini in this Gameweek and did it before midnight on Sunday, to avoid price hikes.

The price rises/falls are really frustrating for the “serious” player. My theory is that there are a ton of managers out there who think part of the “fun” of FF is transfers, so they make transfers w/o regard to point hits. I also think the steamroller that is FFS has had a huge impact in that it probably has a million viewers (I have been in virtually since its inception and can remember when you were pretty safe in assuming no one in your minileague was privy to this great site). Once there is consensus on a player, “groupthink” takes over and you have a ton of buys on whoever the consensus guys are. For example, there is no rationale reason for Hazard to be at 10.3 and Mata at 8.9. Yes, Hazard was “in form” but not 1.4 worth. Yet, if you scrolled down on the comments on FFS in GWs 2 and 3 (and CHE didn’t even play in GW3), managers were taking hits to dump out Mata to bring in Hazard.
So, unfortunately, if 0.1 or 0.2 matters in your transfer circumstances, you’ve got to go early in the week and hope thhere are no training ground injuries, midweek game injuries or drunk-driving situations . . .