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Wilson Center Experts

Richard Cincotta

Global Fellow

Environmental Change and Security Program

Affiliation:

Demographer in Residence, The Stimson Center

Richard Cincotta is a demographer whose research has focused on the demographic transition’s influences on political, institutional and environmental conditions. He is the demographer-in-residence at the Stimson Center, and (most notably) has served as Director of Social Science and Demographic Programs in the National Intelligence Council’s Long Range Analysis Unit (2006-09) and as an AAAS Fellow in USAID’s Office of Population and Reproductive Health (1992-1994). His publications on demographic topics have appeared in Foreign Policy, Current History, Nature and Science, and he has contributed to the National Intelligence Council's two most recent global futuring exercises, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (2012), and Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (2008). Dr. Cincotta is the current chair of the International Studies Association’s Political Demography and Geography Section. He trained as a population biologist, and is a graduate of Syracuse University/SUNY College of ESF (BS) and Colorado State University (MS, PhD).

Previous Terms at the Wilson Center:

Aug 2011

Related Content for this Expert

Drawing on three decades of data, Richard Cincotta and Jack Goldstone explore the relationship between demography and conflict—critical to the USAID reexamination of the Fragile/Rebuilding States strategy. more

In 2008, demographer Richard Cincotta predicted that between 2010 and 2020 the states along the northern rim of Africa – Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt – would each reach a demographically measurable point where the presence of at least one liberal democracy (and perhaps two), among the five, would not only be possible, but probable. Recent months have brought possible first steps to validate that prediction. more

Do trends in human population affect a country's chances of civil war? According to a new report from Population Action International, countries with a high number of young adults were more likely to suffer a civil conflict during the 1990s. more

The series seeks to broaden understanding of health and population issues as part of the problem and part of the solution to instability challenges, as well as foster debate about the correlations between fragility and population dynamics. more

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Drawing on three decades of data, Richard Cincotta and Jack Goldstone explore the relationship between demography and conflict—critical to the USAID reexamination of the Fragile/Rebuilding States strategy.

Do trends in human population affect a country's chances of civil war? According to a new report from Population Action International, countries with a high number of young adults were more likely to suffer a civil conflict during the 1990s.

In 2008, demographer Richard Cincotta predicted that between 2010 and 2020 the states along the northern rim of Africa – Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt – would each reach a demographically measurable point where the presence of at least one liberal democracy (and perhaps two), among the five, would not only be possible, but probable. Recent months have brought possible first steps to validate that prediction.

The series seeks to broaden understanding of health and population issues as part of the problem and part of the solution to instability challenges, as well as foster debate about the correlations between fragility and population dynamics.