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Pelican Point Real Estate Market Report

2009 Mid-year Report

This mid-year report is the result of my analysis of data retrieved from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS
database. Only data relating to detached single family (DSF) homes were included. None of the townhome sales were included in this
analysis as they represent a different product. As I have done in the past, I made a distinction between new construction and previously owned (re-sale) homes.

While the projected overall unit sales in Pelican Point are down from 2008, we can see improvement in new construction units sold.
Sales of previously owned homes are down from last year but, at current absorption rates, will be ahead of sales in the pre-Katrina year
of 2004. The following chart illustrates this point.

Overall, previously owned homes in the subdivision have held their value. The average price per square foot of living area has held
at $121.56/sq.ft. This is about even with 2008 sales but down from the selling prices in the years immediately following hurricane
Katrina. At $121.56, however, homes are selling well ahead of pre-Katrina prices. Homes in Pelican Point are diverse but,
in general, similar homes are on a given street. For that reason, I’ve analyzed the re-sale data by looking at sales by street. The following
chart shows selling $/sq.ft. and unit sales by street.

The next chart again shows that re-sale prices have held steady between 2008 and 2009. New construction prices, however, have declined
a bit from the high seen in 2008 but have remained higher than the average $/sq.ft. for the years 2004-2007.

Fewer than 2 homes per month are being sold in the re-sale market segment. With 29 homes currently listed, it is clearly a buyer’s market.
At current absorption rates there is a 15.8 month supply as the next chart illustrates.

The new construction segment has a 9.6 month supply at the current absorption rate of 0.8 homes per month. Drilling down through price
range, one can see that so far this year no homes over $400K have been sold yet there are four available. I would encourage builders
to refrain from building homes in this price range until the market for them rebounds.

Comments and suggestions are encouraged. Readers wishing to have a more in-depth discussion welcome to contact me directly.

Ascension Parish Real Estate - Pelican Point Townhomes

I have some clients looking for investment property in the Pelican Point Golf Community. Many of the qualifying properties we looked at were townhomes. Previously, my Pelican Point Market Analyses dealt primarily with detached single family homes so I wanted to take a closer look at the sales history with respect to the townhomes. A total of forty-eight recorded sales between January 2002 and present were examined. The first parameter looked at was the selling price. The following chart plots the selling price vs. time. While only 22% of the variation in price is attributable to the time we can see that prices are increasing over time. Between 2002 and present a linear regression analysis calculates that the rate of increase has been about $25.51/day or about $9,311 per year.

The next chart plotted selling price per square foot of living area over time. A regression analysis here revealed that over 40% of the variation in pricing is explained by the date of sale. The equation predicts that selling price/sq.ft. is rising by almost $4.75 per year (1.3¢/day).

The third chart shows the average price/sq.ft. of townhomes but distinguishes between new homes and homes in the resale market segment. This chart shows some decline in the average home price in the resale market during 2007 but this drop was attributable to a single townhome being sold well below the others.

Finally, I looked at the Days on Market statistics for townhomes. One can see that the demand for townhomes historically was not very strong within the subdivision and they tended to remain on the market for months or even years. The following chart shows that, in 2007, townhomes sold much more quickly than in previous years.

The data used for this analysis was extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. While every attempt was made to ensure accuracy, no warranties are either expressed or implied. Please feel free to leave comments. You can also reach me at (225) 413-3624 or by e-mail1312.