The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA Tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. See the Bracket Odds and Predictalated Bracket.

Tournament Summary

Happy Championship Week!

In a few days the field of 68 will be set and you can begin filling out your bracket. Before that happens, we take one final look at what the men's college basketball tournament could look like through 50,000 simulations of Joe Lunardi's Bracketology.

The cream is rising to the top. In a season that has seen consistent turnover in the standings, the best teams in college basketball are beginning to separate themselves from the pack.

Over the last month, the three most likely champions in our bracket simulations have seen their combined share of tournament win percentages increase steadily.

Simulation

02/17/16

02/24/16

03/02/16

03/09/16

Top 3 Win%

35.6

37.8

41.9

47.9

Kansas, Michigan State and Virginia, No. 1-3 in our Power Rankings, win nearly 50 percent of all the simulated tournaments. The Jayhawks are the most likely champions with almost a one-in-five chance of cutting down the nets.

Below are a few teams that might surprise and others that might exit the tournament early.

The Predictalator

08/09/2017 Highlight: In college football, "normal" or better totals are 58% all-time and have been profitable in five of the previous seven years. Meanwhile, our strongest ATS pick each week in college football is 69-40 (63% ATS) all-time. With college football season win totals being posted this week, we can also note that last season, playable win total picks in went 28-19 (60% O/U) to turn a profit of $899 for a normal $50 player using our play value recommendations.