NFC No. 1 seed: Atlanta Falcons

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With five weeks left in the 2012 NFL regular season, including this weekend's action, much of the playoff fields in the NFC and AFC are set with familiar formidable teams.

But there is plenty of unpredictability left in the race for first-round byes, seeding and the wild-card spots in each conference. Based on how well those hopeful teams are playing and whom they have left to play, here's projecting what the postseason pecking order will look like when the regular season is finished.

The Falcons are in the catbird seat because of their execution in close games, and have a chance to close strong to maintain their top seed. Although there won't be belief in them beyond the regular season until they win a playoff game, getting a rematch with the Super Bowl champion Giants at home—who beat the Falcons last in the playoffs—will be a good primer to see just how much improved the team is from this time last year.

The Falcons’ remaining slate is favorable with two more games in the Georgia Dome, but given their track record this season, every one of them will be tough. That's where their current 2 1/2-game cushion over San Francisco will come in handy. They know their offensive potential with Matt Ryan in the passing game, with some added pop in the running game, but they need better line play to stay No. 1.

The 49ers have made the bold move to hand its quarterback spot to second-year sensation Colin Kaepernick over veteran Alex Smith. But given how Kaepernick has delivered in tough games against the Bears and Saints, there should be confidence that the skilled youngster can stay on a roll down the stretch.

At the same time, the Niners' defense is back to its old swarming self, with second-year outside linebacker Aldon Smith leading the charge in the pass rush. The steadiness of the offensive line and running game will also assist in Kaepernick growing more confident. As much as Kaepernick provides a passing spark, the Niners won't forget about their bread and butter in the rushing attack to finish strong.

Schedule: at St. Louis, vs. Miami, at New England, at Seattle, vs. Arizona

The Giants don't look like they'll need to sweat through December just to make the playoffs, and coming off their big win over the Packers, they are in line to have a higher seed in their Super Bowl XLVI defense. Their bye was well timed to get them to regroup for another deep playoff run.

Eli Manning needed to get back on his Super Bowl MVP game, and that was pretty much the case in his performance against Green Bay. There are plenty of other fine quarterbacks he'll need to outduel to make sure New York draws the highest seed in the first round. The good news is he's backed by a stronger running game and the Giants’ trademark front-four pass rush.

Schedule: at Washington, vs. New Orleans, at Atlanta, at Baltimore, vs. Philadelphia

The Packers are doing their best to tread water with familiar veterans missing from their defense. They also have offensive line issues and are getting very little out of their running game, which now won't see a return from injured Cedric Benson. So there's a lot on Aaron Rogers to keep carrying the team through all of that, and it helps he can now throw to Greg Jennings again.

The Packers do get a huge break with their schedule, at least with four of the remaining games. The swing game that will determine the NFC North is in two weeks with the Bears, and it's a game they can easily steal with Rodgers at the helm. They already beat Chicago at Lambeau Field way back in Week 2. If that happens, there is a strong possibility of the archrivals meeting a third time in the playoffs.
Schedule: vs. Minnesota, vs. Detroit, at Chicago, vs. Tennessee, at Minnesota

The Bears, assuming that both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte will be available to play the rest of the way—unlike at this time last season—are guaranteed to get at least the wild-card berth that eluded them in 2011. Their defensive backbone will make sure of that, but it would be nice if they can get their offense better in gear before the playoffs.

They have some tough road games, including two more in the division, but the tricky one is at home against Green Bay. It's the difference between getting a potential No. 2 seed and first-round bye and opening back on the road, quite possibly right back at Lambeau Field. They need their best game to get that potential playoff matchup back at Solider Field when it counts most.
Schedule: vs. Seattle, at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, at Arizona, at Detroit

They are only one game behind the three-pack of 6-5 teams—Seattle, Minnesota and Tampa Bay. They also have beaten the two other teams that are 5-6—New Orleans and Dallas—and also boast wins over the Vikings and Buccaneers. So there are many tiebreakers lining up in their favor if they are able to take care of what's in front of them.

The next two weeks will be the toughest tests yet for Robert Griffin III, who seems unstoppable at the moment. The Giants and Ravens both won't be easy, but RG3 will be confident enough to play his best against those division leaders at home.

If the Redskins can survive that stretch, watch out. Closing with the Browns, Eagles and Cowboys give Griffin a chance to run away with offensive rookie of the year.
Schedule: vs. New York Giants, vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, at Philadelphia, vs. Dallas

The Texans are having some problems with their defense related to injuries and a limited pass rush beyond J.J. Watt. It doesn’t help that Brian Cushing is no longer anchoring their run defense at inside linebacker, but defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is smart enough to help them overcome that.

So is the offense, as Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Arian Foster are playing their best football at the ideal time. They really have only one obstacle left between them and the top seed, a Week 14 clash with the Patriots on the road. They already have wins over fellow division leaders Denver and Baltimore, so beating New England would solidify that the Texans are the worthy team to beat in the AFC playoffs.
Schedule: at Tennessee, at New England, vs. Indianapolis, vs. Minnesota, at Indianapolis

No one is really talking about them, except to keep questioning the play of quarterback Joe Flacco. Yet, Flacco, with help from running back Ray Rice, keeps doing the little things to allow the offense to grind out games. The defense, despite mounting injuries to veterans, has hung tough and kept delivering blows you would expect from Baltimore.

Because the Ravens have never missed the playoffs with Flacco under center and John Harbaugh on the sidelines, doing the expected has probably contributed to them flying under the radar. They have been a different team since their Week 8 bye, following a Week 7 shellacking at Houston.

They already have beaten New England, and will host Denver in Week 15. Given the Ravens are the NFL’s best home team, they will fit nicely as a second seed.
Schedule: vs. Pittsburgh, at Washington, vs. Denver, vs. Giants, at Cincinnati

The Patriots are very good at beating up on teams with questionable defenses, which they have done the past four weeks in rolling offensively against St. Louis, Buffalo, Indianapolis and the New York Jets. They are fortunate to get their two toughest games of the season at home, in Week 14 against the Texans and Week 15 against the 49ers.

Some of the same defensive issues are there, and so it’s been important for them to come out firing with Tom Brady and render opponents predictably one-dimensional. Considering the Texans and 49ers both are effective at running and are willing to stick to it with a little bit of passing pop, they will present challenges. New England should, however, have no problems against their three games left against Florida foes.

The Broncos continue to blow through a weak second-half schedule, but it may not be enough to get them more than this seed. With the AFC West title all but locked up, Denver will need to use its toughest remaining game, on the road against the Ravens, as a playoff tuneup.

Because the Broncos already lost to Houston and New England in games they could have easily won, it will be important for them to play well at Baltimore. Their defense will get a good immediate test with the red-hot Buccaneers at home. As for Peyton Manning and the offense, they will hope to stay hot through Week 17. They are also fortunate, for the most part, to be a healthy team that’s peaking at the right time. Armed with Manning, they can win two road games in the playoffs.

The Colts have gone from a surprise potential wild-card team to one that finds itself all alone with a 7-4 record. There are two games lingering with the AFC South-leading Texans, but the rest of the schedule presents struggling sub-.500 teams.

The key here is getting play from Andrew Luck and their defense on the road. But given how weak most of the teams behind them in the AFC hunt are, there is even some margin for error. Taking care of the Titans and Chiefs may be enough, and there’s a chance that will get a Texans team resting its starters at home in Week 17. Considering all the obstacles with Luck on the field and coach Chuck Pagano off the field, it’s been a remarkable rebound and a story that will continue in January.

If the playoffs started today, the Steelers would get into the playoffs over the Bengals, after a head-to-head victory. But things have changed since that Week 7 meeting. After a Week 8 bye, Cincinnati found a needed second gear, fueled by second-year quarterback Andy Dalton. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh can’t catch an injury break, and it’s unknown when it will get Ben Roethlisberger back.

The Bengals have won three consecutive games to get back above .500, sparked by a rout of the Giants in Week 10. With the Chargers, Cowboys and Eagles next, they should keep building great momentum before a rematch with the Steelers in Week 16. Dalton is playing well, the running game has come through, and the defense has allowed only 29 total points during the winning streak.

Schedule: at San Diego, vs. Dallas, at Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore