Majority of RNC against Steele

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele faces an all-but-impossible path to reelection this month, as a majority of the RNC’s 168 members indicate that they will not support the controversial chairman for another term.

A weeklong canvass of the party’s governing board by POLITICO revealed 88 members who have decided not to vote for Steele, either opting to support one of his opponents or simply ruling out Steele as a choice in the race.

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Fifty-five members, some of whom have endorsed one of Steele’s challengers, have signaled that they will not support the chairman under any circumstances. An additional 33 pledged their support elsewhere.

Just as telling, not a single member of the committee said that Steele was their second choice in the race — a grave indicator in a contest likely to be decided in multiple ballots.

Further, whip counts kept by several of the chairman's opponents suggest the Anybody-but-Steele bloc could be even larger, including as many as 90 to 100 members.

A winning candidate must gain the support of 85 members of the RNC.

The RNC chairman’s race, like many congressional leadership battles and student government elections, is a byzantine affair that involves secret commitments and multiple rounds of balloting.

Some endorsements are only good for one or two ballots. Personal loyalties often reign supreme. And committee members are often reluctant to make their endorsements public because of the risk of backing a losing candidate.

In order to capture a detailed picture of the chairman's contest, POLITICO contacted each of the 168 members of the RNC, asking for their first and second choices in the race and whether they would consider supporting Steele.

Members who wanted to share their choices anonymously were permitted to do so. They were contacted as many as four times via e-mail, and some were sought out by telephone. Nearly all the members counted in the anti-Steele camp confirmed their opposition directly, while a handful were determined by their public remarks or by two or more sources who spoke to those members directly.

Some in the anti-Steele camp have not decided whom to support. Among the 88 members opposed to the incumbent, 23 have not settled on a pick.

That’s more than the 16 members of the committee who indicated support for Steele in the POLITICO canvass, but others who are widely seen as sympathetic to the chairman did not respond to repeated inquiries. Steele’s challengers say their tallies show him with just over 30 commitments in their whip counts.