Sorting the Score Predictions for GW 8 2017

The International break has sorted the 9 Group winners headed to Russia. Next up are the 8 teams who placed second and are headed for home and away playoff matches. The draw will be held later today, and the play-off matches played over the period of the 9th to the 14th November. The pairings had not been decided as of the writing of the article.

Hopefully, your fantasy squads have made it through unscathed without major injuries. Those who have opted to use their WC during the break may have been disappointed about the lack of price rises. I count myself in this group.

A request was made to list the results of the top websites from the previous GW rather than reporting the complete record of all the sites. It will remove the groupings of the various sites with identical records. It is what I had done when these articles were first started. Let me know what the thinking is. Along with the top sites the RMT Algorithm’s results will be included for comparison.

The Top Sites from GW7 were –

Site

# of Predictions

# of Correct Wins/Draws

# Correct Exact Scores

football burp.com

10

6

3

betegy.com

10

6

2

weekend football.com

10

6

2

score predictor.net

10

6

1

soccer vista.com

10

6

1

vitibet.com

10

6

1

bet statz.com

10

6

0

bleacher report.com

10

6

0

RMT algorithm

10

4

0

With a record of 4 correct win/draws and no exact scores predicted, the RMT algorithm placed 14th out of 15.

The coming week’s summary below is based on the predictions from 18 websites available as of this date. Where there are multiple score predictions it is the result of differences in the Mean & Mode calculations.

The Statistical Score Predictions for GW8 are –

Home

v

Away

Mean

Mode

Stats. Prediction

Liverpool

v

Manchester United

0.7-1.6

1-2

1-2

Burnley

v

West Ham United

1.3-0.2

1-0

1-0

Crystal Palace

v

Chelsea

0.4-2.5

0-3

0-3

Manchester City

v

Stoke City

2.8-0.2

3-0

3-0

Tottenham

v

Bournemouth

2.2-0.2

2-0

2-0

Swansea City

v

Huddersfield Town

0.6-0.8

0-0

1-1 or 0-0

Watford

v

Arsenal

0.7-1.5

1-1

1-2 or 1-1

Brighton & Hove

v

Everton

1.3-0.5

2-1

1-1 or 2-1

Southampton

v

Newcastle United

0.7-0.8

0-1

1-1 or 0-1

Leicester City

v

West Bromwich

1.1-0.9

1-1

1-1

As can be seen, 3 matches lean toward Home wins, 2 to Away wins and 1 draw. The other 4 matches appear to be coin tosses.

The RMT Algorithm’s simulations below present the possibilities for team wins, and the score which is predicted by the percentage of simulations for that match. The winning team, and the percentage to indicate a win are presented in bold.

The RMT algorithm Predicted Winners for GW8 are –

Home

Away

Sim % for HW/AW/Draw

Sim% & Projected Score

Brighton & Hove

Everton

41.0 / 27.1 / 26.8

15.5 / 1-0

Burnley

West Ham United

45.2 / 21.9 26.9

13.0 / 1-0

Crystal Palace

Chelsea

13.4 / 52.7 / 18.2

12.4 / 1-2

Leicester City

West Bromwich

49.6 / 15.4 / 27.5

13.2 / 2-1

Liverpool

Manchester United

25.5 / 38.1 / 29.6

10.0 / 0-1

Manchester City

Stoke City

53.5 / 2.6 / 10.0

13.4 / 2-0

Southampton

Newcastle United

39.0 / 27.5 / 31.5

15.8 / 1-0

Swansea City

Huddersfield Town

45.4 / 22.1 / 28.8

19.4 / 1-0

Tottenham

Bournemouth

53.3 / 3.0 / 9.9

12.5 / 3-0

Watford

Arsenal

17.4 / 40.7 / 23.5

9.5 / 1-2

The predictions favor the Home team in 7 matches and the Away team in 3. The Away matches involve teams which are generally expected to win. The prediction of the outcome of the Liverpool vs United game has a low degree of confidence, with the 0-1 win to United occurring in only 10% of simulations.

The RMT algorithm Predicted Clean Sheets for GW8 are –

Home

Away

% Sim for CS

% Sim for Score

Swansea City

Huddersfield Town

41.7

19.4 / 1-0

Southampton

Newcastle United

36.0 / 29.3

15.8 / 1-0 or 13.6 / 0-1

Manchester City

Stoke City

35

13.4 / 2-0

Tottenham

Bournemouth

33.1

12.1 / 2-0

Crystal Palace

Chelsea

33

10.3 / 0-2

Burnley

West Ham United

32

13.0 / 1-0

Leicester City

West Bromwich

31.7

12.4 / 1-0

Brighton & Hove

Everton

31.6

15.5 / 1-0

Liverpool

Manchester United

28.3

10.0 / 0-1

Watford

Arsenal

19.6

6.3 / 0-2

The teams predicted to keep CS’s are presented in bold. The percentage of simulations generated to predict a CS are listed in descending order. The higher percentage of simulations, the more likely the possibility of a CS. In the SOU v NEW match, both teams recorded a % simulation which would indicate a CS, so this is a possible toss-up, with the odds favoring Southampton.

After 7 Game Weeks, I would hope that most managers have an idea as to which teams have the edge when it comes to defensive assets. I would not presume to offer advice on which GK’s and defenders hold or buy. With my ranking just inside the 1 million level you can see why.

The RMT algorithm Predictions for 2 or More Goals in GW8 are –

Home

Away

Sim % for 2+ goal

Proj Score by Sim%

Tottenham

Bournemouth

50.4

12.1 / 2-0

Manchester City

Stoke City

49.4

13.4 / 2-0

Watford

Arsenal

30.5 / 49.0

7.9 / 2-2 or 9.5 / 1-2

Crystal Palace

Chelsea

47.8

12.4 / 1-0

Leicester City

West Bromwich

46.5

13.2 / 2-1

Burnley

West Ham United

40.0

11.1 / 2-1

Liverpool

Manchester United

35.7

9.2 / 0-2

Brighton & Hove

Everton

33.3

8.6 / 2-1

Swansea City

Huddersfield Town

31.1

10.5 / 2-0

Southampton

Newcastle United

28

9.6 / 2-1

The teams which are predicted to score 2 or more goals are presented in bold. The percentage of simulations which relate to this occurrence are listed in descending order. The scores predicted are those with the highest number of simulations. The Watford v Arsenal match presents the possibility that both teams may record 2 or more goals; with Arsenal the most likely to score 2 plus goals.

As stated above on defensive assets, the attacking options for goal scoring by Midfielders and Strikers should be becoming more obvious. Scan the League Table to see which teams are piling up goals for and see if the cash is available to buy these assets. Just be aware to visit the injury sites to check which players may have a knock, or be rested depending upon the upcoming fixture.

Personally, I have both Kane & Lukaku, and have brought in Vardy on my WC. There are a few injured or doubtful Strikers listed and pickings are slim. Even Lukaku’s status has been called into doubt due to upcoming fixtures but remains in my team as a possible goal scorer. Kane is still the choice for Captain. As far as advice is concerned, this is all I can offer.

The article presents a lot of Tables and a raft of data. Hopefully, it is of some use in sorting out your fantasy lineups or pointing you in the correct direction for score predictions in the Prediction Game.

Good luck in the coming weekend, and as always, “You pays yer money, and you takes yer choice”.

Authors

Bio

Latest posts

mosc1938

79 yr old retired water & wastewater Chemist from Philadelphia, PA; retired to Florida. Enjoying the game more through association with all on site.
Continuing my FPL educations with the help of quite a few friends.

@A J @IvanTheTerrible I have Lukaku…now the decision that I have to make is whether to think of Morata/Aguero and cheap mid (go 4-3-3) or, Aguero/Cheap fwd and Hazard 3-4-3….and to fit that extra heavy hitter, I can’t pick a CHE def.

I do not understand the scores, or maybe it is the bug that Chorley Rocks was trying to fix has come back. I had 16 points, in the most recent round, added to the 59 that I had after round 6 and round 7, that is 75, but the league table shows just 69

Sorry, my bad, I was seeing the score board earlier on Saturday and it was showing as 59, when it was actually 52, for Gameweek 6 and 7. I remember seeing 14th place and 59.

@OldGoat, thanks also for the help.

Comments are closed.

Get Fantasy Football help

Fantasy Football First publishes articles and stats to help Fantasy Premier League managers, and provides a forum for discussing all things Fantasy Football to help you win your mini-league. We also provide “How To” guides and advice for newer managers.

To access hidden extras, post comments and get help with your fantasy football team please log in or register.

Throughout all this time the Rate My Team Adviser provides suggestions from our statistical model and from experienced real-life managers so you can sanity check your transfer choices.

Fantasy Football stats to help improve your team

Keep FF1st Free

For less than the price of a coffee a month, you could help support the running costs of FF1st.

Current£930

Target£5,000

Site Supporters66

Submit an article

We encourage everyone to send us articles. Got your own view on a player to buy or sell, or some statistics to share? We love opinions and we love something new - all we ask is that article be in your own words, be factual and be honest.

We use cookies to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners who may combine it with other information you’ve provided to them or they’ve collected from your use of their services. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.Ok