HIGHLIGHTS

Quad officials have held a meeting in Manila on ASEAN Summit sidelines.

Manila, the venue for 31st ASEAN Summit and capital city of the Philippines, has signaled emergence of a new world order and renewed efforts on the sidelines of the meet to keep the balance of power steady in Indo-Pacific region.

Though the top leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the US are yet to formally engage in what is being called as quadrilateral alliance or coalition, the talks between the four nations have begun at level of foreign office officials. This indicates widening of their security cooperation under Japan-proposed quadrilateral alliance.

The meeting between the officials of the four nations at Manila yesterday is being seen as the first major move towards formation of the quadrilateral security dialogue or 'quad'. The deliberations were focused on "common" interests in the region.

"The officials also exchanged views on addressing common challenges of terrorism and proliferation linkages (read China-North Korea connection) impacting the region as well as on enhancing connectivity," the MEA statement said.

WHAT IS QUADRILATERAL ALLIANCE?

With the rising might of China in Asia and its assertiveness on global issues, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had proposed the idea of quadrilateral security dialogue (QSD) by widening the scope of the trilateral strategic dialogue (TSD) involving Australia, Japan and the US.

The TSD began with a series of meetings from 2002 between the three countries with the stated objectives of fighting global terrorism and containing nuclear proliferation. But, the grouping was ostensibly intended to keep a check on Chinese emergence as a dominant world power and a bullying force in the Pacific Ocean region especially in the South China Sea.

The TSD was elevated to ministerial level talks in 2005 and two years later Shinzo Abe proposed to include India as the fourth partner and change the nature of the dialogue from strategic to security interests.

WHAT HAPPENED IN LAST 10 YEARS?

Shinzo Abe's proposal to hold the quadrilateral security dialogue involving Australia, India, Japan and the US kicked off in 2007 with the support from the then US Vice-President Dick Cheney, former Australian Prime Minister John Howard and former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

The quadrilateral dialogue also saw joint military exercises of unprecedented scale under Exercise Malabar. The diplomatic engagement too gained momentum making China nervous about the new grouping in the region of its ambitious expansion plans.

China registered formal protests with each of the quad member countries. China was the lone power in the region left in isolation. But, the Japan PM's idea could not take off to formalisation of a coalition. With the change of leadership in Australia, the quad was junked.

Kevin Rudd replaced Howard in Australia in 2007 and by 2008, he had unilaterally announced departure from the quadrilateral security dialogue. The QSD ceased. But, Exercise Malabar continued with India, Japan and the US. There is renewed interest shown by Australia joining the annual naval exercise.

With another change of government in Australia in 2010 when Julia Gillard replaced Rudd as the Prime Minister, things moved favourably for the quad. Julia Gillard favoured enhanced military cooperation with Japan and the US.

The India question seems to have been answered now under Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who is also in Manila to attend the ASEAN Summit. Finding conditions favourable, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono in October again mooted the idea of quadrilateral dialogue. Taro Kono had indicated that Japan would take efforts for the QSD talks in Manila.

WHAT NOW?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is meeting US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the sidelines of ASEAN Summit. A meeting with Malcolm Turnbull is not yet on the cards, but its possibility cannot be rejected.

During Modi -Trump and Modi-Abe talks, the issues of "common challenges" are expected to feature prominently. Both, Trump and Abe have been pushing for greater role for India in the Indo-Pacific region.

Reports suggest that the issue of China's aggressive build up in the South China Sea figured in the meeting of the quad officials yesterday. China's global ambitions and its rapid expansion in the Indian Ocean have been a cause for alarm for all the big geostrategic players.

India and China are already engaged in rivalry on many fronts including territorial claims and counter-claims. India has perceived China's assertiveness on including the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor in its One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative as a direct challenge to its sovereignty as it passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

China has recently acquired a couple of ports at strategic locations in the Indian Ocean warranting a review by India of its naval strategic policy. On the other hand, President Trump has been insisting on deepening India's role in Indo-Pacific region.

Trump uses the "Indo-Pacific" term so often that it has led to speculations that the US has already prepared its plan to have the quadrilateral security dialogue in place before much long. Only the Narendra Modi government, it seems, has to make up its mind and join, as part of its 'Act East Policy', what could be an effective counter-China block.