Saturday, November 30, 2013

Market Watch

"Sharp" bettors have been completely torched this season, but what I like about them is they do drive line movement. Last week this line as set at -9.5 in the look-ahead line. When it reopened on Monday, it was -7.5. It sat in the teaser window all week long, but they've finally jumped on the extra points and moved the line to -7 at some books.

I think Vegas had it right last week when they had it close to double digits. If you can get -7, you're getting some value for this game.

Bottom Line

The 49ers have been more inconsistent this year that we thought they would be, but they showed the football world that they're more than capable of taking care of business when they smoked the Redskins.

I have to give the Rams some credit for how they've played of late. They lost Sam Bradford and had virtually no hope to make the playoffs this season, but even with a journeyman quarterback they've surprised some people with upset wins.

I don't expect that to happen this week, nor do I expect them to keep this within a touchdown. I think the only chance they have is if Long and Quinn dominate the 49ers offensive line from start to finish. If this game was in St Louis, that might be a possibility, but they won't have any crowd advantage aiding them in San Fran.

The 49ers can win and cover this game doing what they do best - running the ball, taking shots in the air when they are open, and grinding down opposing offenses with their defense.

Zac Stacy has been one of the biggest catalysts behind the Rams recent surge, but is he going to lead the way against the likes of Willis, Smith, Brooks, and Bowman? What if the Rams fall behind? Is Kellen Clemons going to lead them back?

For St Louis, they'll need a perfect storm of events to cover this game, including some splash plays from Tavon Austin. I'll go ahead and bet against that happening.