The Integrated Solid Waste Management Plan (ISWRM) approved by the Metro Vancouver Board in 2010 and by the BC Province in 2011, recommends waste-to-energy recovery in lieu of landfilling to address the remaining 1.0 million tonnes of garbage being disposed of every year. The recommendation comes with the expectation that this method will reduce waste and generate energy from incineration while reducing the cost of disposal. Although, there are a number of methods that can be implemented to control emissions emitted by waste-to-energy incinerators, certain pollutants such as NOx are more dificult to filter and therefore, remains a concern to the air quality in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) - specifically to the formation of ground-level ozone. The dispersion and deposition of NOx in the LFV is strongly governed by the unique topography and proximity to the Pacific Ocean where large-scale sea breezes, valley and slope circulation play an important role in pollutant transport (Douglas and Kessler, 1991; McKendry et al., 1998). However, it is this unique topography of the valley that makes it difficult to predict the transport and deposition of pollutants. As a result, to understand and evaluate the potential for ozone formation due to NOx emissions, three
considerations were made:
1. NOx effects on ozone formation given different release points
2. The trajectories of the pollutant released from the different release points
3. NOx effects on ozone formation with respect to the NOx- and VOC- limited regions
Land-use development maps were consulted to locate potential sites within New Westminster,
Burnaby, Surrey, Tsawwassen, and Gold River. Site characteristics similar to the current Burnaby Waste-to-
Energy Facility (WTEF) such as low vegetation, no tree, buffer zones, and access to major roads were taken into account in the siting of the proposed incinerator. Based on these guidelines, seven potential sites were identified as plausible for the WTEF development - one in New Westminister, Tsawwassen, Gold River, and two in Surrey and Burnaby (refer to section 3 for details). The coordinates for each potential site was then
applied to the HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) to estimate the particle emission trajectories from meteorological fields produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Ozone episodes in 1985, 1995, 2001, and 2006 (Steyn et al., 2013) representing the four
common meteorological regimes consistent with previous research observations were then used as input for HYSPLIT to simulate trajectories for the seven potential WTEF sites (refer to Table 1C for model inputs
summary). Consequently, four HYSPLIT runs were performed over a 72-hour period for each ozone episode at each location for a total of 28 runs (see Figure A for example).
Given that the processes to form ground-level ozone - as a result of NOx emissions - are dependent on regions of low NOx (NOx-limited) vs. high NOx concentration (VOC-limited), the methods outlined in Steyn et al. (2013) and Ainslie et al. (2013) were used to establish the NOx/VOC boundary. Regions to the left of the boundary was found to be VOC-limited while right of the boundary is NOx-limited. In order to evaluate the potential for ozone formation due to NOx emissions, the NOx/VOC boundary was first superimposed onto the HYSPLIT trajectory (Figure A). Afterwards, an area within the LFV defined as being NOx-limited was selected (black outline). Figure A: [image omitted] Example of a HYSPLIT run. Daytime trajectories (06:00-18:00) are represented
b
y red dots and the nighttime trajectories are represented by blue dots (19:00-05:00). The
N
Ox/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). The triangular
a
rea, outlined in a solid black line defines the sampling area.
To quantitatively rank each location, we counted all the daytime trajectories (red dots) located
within the defined area since photochemical formation of ozone only occurs when sunlight is present.
Although each year represents a different meteorological regime, the sum of these four regimes provides a general description of the meteorological conditions experienced in the Greater Vancouver Area.
Hence, the sum of the counts of all years at each location serves as a representative of the likelihood that emissions released from the potential locations will travel into the NOx-limited region and form ground-level ozone. Using this method, Surrey Two ranked the highest in likelihood and Gold River the lowest.
In addition, analysis of hourly ozone concentrations at key monitoring stations throughout the LFV were found that in general, regional-scale processes affected the upper percentiles and Canada-wide standards while local and global scale processes affected the lower percentiles. Consequently, given the different
potential WTEF sites, trajectory paths, the NOx/VOC boundary, and our understanding of the global,
regional, and local influences on ozone concentration, it can be suggested that additional NOx from the west will impact concentrations at locations located further east into the valley and downwind from major urban NOx sources. This means that the decreasing trend observed on the hourly concentrations at the upper
percentiles will reverse trend and most likely induce exceedances of the Canada-wide standards. This is
particularly crucial for municipalities such as Hope and Chilliwack located further east into the LFV and have a long record of attaining the CWS for ozone.
However, Metro Vancouver’s emissions inventory (Metro Vancouver, 2007) reveal that WTEF
emissions contribute less NOx compared to other mobile sources such as light/heavy duty vehicle, marine, railways and off-road vehicles. Hence, in an effort to improve air quality in the LFV, we recommend
continuous reductions of NOx in Metro Vancouver especially to the projected increase in marine emissions, research into other options of waste diversion before pursuing WTEF and update management plans to address unique local sources. [This report was modified, October 2013.]

Full Text

Metro Vancouver ProposedWaste-to-Energy Facility: Evaluating Ozone Formation Potential in the Lower Fraser Valley at Different Locations Department of Earth and Ocean SciencesEnvironmental SciencesThe University of British ColumbiaJune 2013Revised October 2013Chelsea Nerpio Tu Phuong (Phoenix) LeWai Kit (Ricky) WanMin Sub (Michael) ChungTable of ContentsExecutive Summary i About the Authors ivAcknowledgements v1.0. INTRODUCTION p.1 1.1. Waste Management in Metro Vancouver p.1 1.2. Production and Depletion of Ozone p.1 1.3. Circulation in the Research Area p.2 1.4. Research Objectives p.3 1.5. Method Overview p.32.0 CURRENT STATE OF AMBIENT OZONE p.4 2.1. Hourly Ozone Trend Analysis at 11 Different Stations p.4 2.1.1. Methods p.4 2.1.2. Results p.4 2.1.2.1. Urban Locations p.5 2.1.2.2. Suburban Locations p.6 2.1.2.3. High Elevations p.7 2.1.2.4. Industrial Locations p.8 2.1.2.5. Rural Locations p.9 2.1.2.6. Trend Summary p.10 2.2. Canada-Wide Standards (CWS) Trend Analysis p.11 2.2.1. Methods p.11 2.2.2. Results p.123.0. POLLUTANT TRANSPORT IN THE LOWER FRASER VALLEY p.16 3.1. Waste-to-Energy Facility Potential Sites p.16 3.1.1. Methods p.16 3.1.2. Results p.16 3.2. HYSPLIT Runs p.17 3.2.1. Methods p.17 3.2.2. Results p.18 3.3. NOx - and VOC- Limited Regions p.19 3.3.1. Methods p.19 3.3.2. Results p.194.0. QUALITATIVE METHOD FOR PREDICTING OZONE FORMATION p.20 4.1. Methods p.20 4.2. Results p.215.0. NITROGEN OXIDES (NOX) SOURCE EMISSIONS IN THE LOWER FRASER VALLEY p,216.0 DISCUSSION p.227.0 CONCLUSION p.23Work Cited p.24Appendix A A1Appendix B A2Appendix C A4 Appendix D A5Appendix E A13 i In Metro Vancouver, 1.0 million tonnes of garbage are disposed of every year into its landfills. The Integrated Solid Waste Management Plan (ISWRM) has recommended waste-to-energy recovery, after recycling, in lieu of landfilling excess waste. The recommendation comes with the expectation that this method will reduce waste and generate energy from incineration while reducing the cost of disposal. Although, there are a number of methods that can be implemented to control emissions emitted by waste-to-energy incinerators, certain pollutants such as NOx are more difficult to filter and therefore, remains a concern to the air quality in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) - specifically to the formation of ground-level ozone. Given the proposal for a new waste-to-energy (WTEF) and the unique topography of the LFV, this study looks at the impact of ozone formation given the relative emission contribution from the WTEF. Land-use development maps were consulted to locate potential sites for the new WTEF within New Westminster, Burnaby, Surrey, Tsawwassen, and Gold River. Site characteristics similar to the current Burnaby WTEF such as low vegetation, absence of trees, buffer zones and access to major roads were taken into account for the poten-tial siting of the proposed incinerator. Based on these guidelines, seven potential sites were identified as plausible for the WTEF development (Table A). Table A: Potential sites that were deemed plausible for placement for the new WTEF. Site guidelines that were taken into consideration were vegetation, tree growth, buffer zones between populated areas and the site and major roads. Gold River satisfied all requirements. The coordinates for each potential site was then applied to the HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) to estimate the particle emission trajectories from meteorological fields produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. High ozone concentration episodes in 1985, 1995, 2001, and 2006 (Steyn et al., 2013) - representations of the four common meteorological regimes consistent with previous research observations - were then used as input for HYSPLIT to simulate trajectories for the seven potential WTEF sites (refer to Table 1C for model inputs summary). Consequently, four HYSPLIT runs were performed over a 72-hour period for each ozone episode at each location for a total of 28 runs (see Figure A for example). Given that the processes to form ground-level ozone are dependent on regions of low NOx concentration (NOx-limited) vs. high NOx concentration (VOC-limited) regions, the methods outlined in Steyn et al. (2013) and Ainslie et al. (2013) were used to establish the NOx/VOC boundary. Regions to the left of the boundary was found to be VOC-limited while right of the boundary is NOx-limited. In order to evaluate the potential for ozone formation due to NOx emissions, the NOx/VOC boundary was first superimposed onto the HYSPLIT trajectory (Figure A). Afterwards, an area within the LFV defined as being NOx-limited was selected (black outline). Executive Summary As a result, to understand and evaluate the potential for ozone formation due to NOx emissions, three considerations were made: 1. NOx effects on ozone formation given different release points 2. The trajectories of the pollutants released from the different release points 3. NOx effects on ozone formation with respect to the NOx and VOC-limited regions Figure A: Example of a HYSPLIT run. Daytime trajectories (06:00-18:00) are represented by red dots and the nighttime trajectories are represented by blue dots (19:00-05:00). The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). The triangular area, outlined in a solid black line defines the sampling area. To quantitatively rank each location, we counted all the daytime trajectories (red dots) located within the defined area since photochemical formation of ozone only occurs when sunlight is present. Although each year represents a different meteorological regime, the sum of these four regimes provides a general description of the meteo-rological conditions experienced in the Greater Vancouver Area. Hence, the sum of the counts of all years at each location serves as a representative of the likelihood that emissions released from the potential locations will travel into the NOx-limited region and form ground-level ozone. Using this method, Surrey Two ranked the highest in likelihood and Gold River the lowest (Table B). Table B: Daytime counts over 4 years for each location based on the defined sampling area. iiiii In addition, analysis of hourly ozone concentrations at key monitoring stations throughout the LFV found that in general, regional-scale processes affected the upper percentiles and the Canada-wide Standards whereas, the local and global scale processes affected the lower percentiles. Consequently, given the different potential WTEF sites, trajectory paths, the NOx/VOC boundary, and our understanding of the global, regional, and local influences on ozoneconcentration, it can be suggested that additional NOx from the west will impact concentrations at locations further east into the valley and downwind from major urban NOx sources. This means that the decreasing trend observed on the hourly concentrations at the upper percentiles will reverse trend and most likely induce exceedance of the Canada-wide Standards. This is particularly crucial for municipalities such as Hope and Chilliwack located further east into the LFV and have a long record of attaining the CWS for ozone. It is important however, to take other NOx sources into account in order to provide a basis for comparison between the potential impacts of the WTEF on the LFV. Metro Vancouver?s emissions inventory (Metro Vancouver, 2007) reveal that WTEF emissions contribute less NOx compared to other mobile sources such as light/heavy duty vehicle, marine, railways, and off-road vehicles. Hence, in an effort to improve air quality in the LFV, we recommend continuous reductions of NOx in Metro Vancouver especially to the projected increase in marine emissions, research into other options of waste diversion before pursuing WTEF and updating management plans to address unique local sources. ivAbout the Authors This study is a research project for an Environmental Science 400-level course at the University of British Columbia. The project team includes four senior science students with majors in the Land, Air and Water concentration of Environmental Sciences. The four project team members will conduct the research for this project, with consultation from: Dr. Douw Steyn, Dr. Tara Ivanochko, Dr. Sara Harris, and Mr. Julian Zelazny, Environmental Services Coordinator for the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD). Tu Phuong (Phoenix) Le, Junior Environmental Scientist Phoenix will be graduating with a BSc. in Environmental Sciences this coming May 2013. She has a keen interest in air quality management and the use of transportation planning as a tool for air quality improvement. Her previous work experience includes air quality framework implementation. Chelsea Nerpio, Junior Environmental Scientist As a fourth-year Environmental Sciences student at UBC, Chelsea has had previous work experience with urban park management, focussing on increasing plant biodiversity through ecological restoration. At present, she is particularly interested in pollution dispersion mechanisms and hopes to explore her curiosity in sustainable development. Wai Kit (Ricky) Wan, Junior Environmental Scientist Ricky is a fourth year Environmental Sciences graduating this coming May 2013. With experience in the restoration of coastal marine environment, he is interested in environmental restoration and policies towards pollution reduction. Min Sub (Michael) Chung, Junior Environmental Scientist Michael is a fourth year Environmental Sciences student who will be graduating this coming May 2013. He has an interest in the interdisciplinary relationship between the environment and business which he hopes will be applied to create a more sustainable future. vAcknowledgementsThe authors of this study would like to acknowledge and thank the following people for their continuous support and help in our research pursuits: Dr. Douw Steyn, Professor, Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, UBC? Dr. Tara Ivanochko, Instructor, Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, UBC? Dr. Sara Harris, Senior Instructor, Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, UBC? Julian Zelazny, Environmental Services Coordinator, Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD)? Annie Seagram, UBC Msc. Candidate, UBC? The authors would also like to acknowledge and thank Metro Vancouver whose 2005 Emissions Inventory and Air Quality Archive were crucial to our analysis. 1.0. IntroductionThe current Metro Vancouver waste management system consists of six transfer stations, two landfills and the Burnaby waste-to-energy facility (WTEF) capable of handling 285,000 tonnes of garbage per year. However, in 2011, 55% or 1,817,446 tonnes of solid waste were still disposed to the landfills (Metro Vancouver, 2011). Consequently, in the same year, Metro Vancouver Board and the BC Province approved the Integrated Solid Waste Management Plan (ISWRM) whose aim was to divert 70% of 1.0 million tonnes of garbage by 2015 and 80% by 2020. Regardless of the ambitious diversion target, it is estimated that there will still be approximately 700,000 tonnes of municipal solid waste (MSW)remaining. After reviewing various options, the ISWRM recommended waste-to-energy recovery in lieu of landfilling the remaining 700,000 tonnes of excess waste (Sustainable Region Initiative, 2010). This recommendations comes with the expectation that the new WTEF will manage an additional 370,000 tonnes of MSW at maximum capacity and generate energy from incineration while reducing the overall cost of diposal (Metro Vancouver, 2011) Pollutants emitted from WTEF includes dioxins, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) which, despite emission controls are more difficult to filter and can escape into the atmosphere (National Academy of Sciences, 2000). Therefore, pollutants emitted by WTEF remain a potential concern to local regions and areas located downwind of the facility. Of these pollutants, NOx and VOCs are precursor species which can undergo a chemical reaction to form ground-level ozone in the presence of sunlight. Other major sources of NOx and VOCs emissions include industrial facilities, electric utilities, motor vehicle exhaust, gasoline vapors, and chemical solvents (EPA, 2012). Given that combustion products such as VOCs are low emitters under normal WTEF operating conditions, the greater concern lies with NOx as the precursor pollutant to ground-level ozone (National Academy of Sciences, 2000). 1Formation - Ozone formation occurs through a two-step process involving NOx which constitutes both NO2 and NO. First, photolysis of NO2 results in NO and ground-state oxygen which then reacts with O2 to form ground-level ozone (Wheeler, 2013). Eq. 1: Ozone production NO2 + hv NO + O(3P) O(3P) + O2 + M O3 Depletion - In the case of low NOx concentrations, referred to as NOx-limited, the production of ozone is limited by the supply of NOx and is independent of VOCs. Therefore, to reduce the production of ozone, NOx emissions must be reduced. In the case of high NOx concentration, also referred to as VOC-limited, the production of ozone is dependent on VOCs concentration and inversely related to NO2. This means that reducing VOCs concentration and increasing NOx concentration will decrease ozone production. Reduction in ozone as a result of increasing NOx occurs via a process known as NOx scavenging where NO reacts with ozone to produce NO2 and O2. Therefore, if we decrease NOx, not only are we transitioning from VOC-limiting to NOx-limiting but we are also reducing the frequency that NOx scavenging occurs and consequently ozone concentration increases (Jenkin, 2008). Eq. 2: NOx scavenging NO + O3 NO2 + O2 1.1. Waste Management in Metro Vancouver 1.2. Production and Depletion of Ozone 21.3. Circulation in the Research Area Figure 1: Map of the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) with topography relief (in meters). The LFV is surrounded by the Coast Mountain Ranges to the north and the Cascade Ranges to the south. It starts roughly from the city of Hope with a width of around 10km and extends to 100km wide at the coastal water edge to the west. The dispersion and deposition of NOx in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) (Figure 1) is strongly governed by the unique topography and proximity to the Pacific Ocean where large-scale sea breezes, valley and slope circulation play animportant role in pollutant transport (Douglas and Kessler, 1991; McKendry et al., 1998). Generally speaking, in the daytime, urban pollutants may be advected inland from coastal plains into tributaries by up-valley winds and sea breezes (Kurita et al., 1985; Douglas and Kessler, 1991). At night, the reverse occurs and pollutants are advected out of the valley by down-valley winds and land breezes (Banita et al., 1997; Douglas and Kessler, 1991). This diurnal pattern may potentially contribute to the degraded air quality at remote sites by recycling the pollutants over urbanized areas into the next day. However, the unique topography of the Lower Fraser Valley makes itdifficult to predict where pollutants will travel and deposit. Therefore, research into pollutant recirculation remains ongoing to better understand its impact on the LFV airshed. 3To achieve the objectives of this study, the methodology is approached in five parts: 1. Hourly ozone concentration trends at eleven monitoring stations from 1984 to 2011 were determined based on data from Metro Vancouver?s emission inventory and compared to Canada-wide Standards. 2. Seven potential sites for the WTEF were identified and the coordinates for each site were used to generate emission trajectories using the HYSPLIT particle model (Draxler et al., 2012) for a total of four runs at each potential site. 3. The identified NOx- and VOC- limited boundaries (Ainslie et al., 2013) were compared to the HYSPLIT trajectory results. 4. The trajectory results and NOx-limited region were used to qualitatively rank the seven potential sites according to their potential for ozone formation in the LFV. 5. Evaluate and compare the magnitude of the NOx contribution from the current Burnaby WTEF to other NOx sources in Metro Vancouver using the most recent 2005 Emissions Inventory (Metro Vancouver, 2007). 1.4. Research Objectives Given the proposal for a new WTEF within Metro Vancouver and the concerns with NOx as a precursor to ground-level ozone, it is relevant to understand and evaluate ozone formation in the LFV with respect to NOx emissions based on three considerations: 1. Different release points of NOx 2. Trajectories of the pollutant from the different release points 3. The influence of NOx - and VOC-limited regions on ozone formation in the LFVTherefore, the objectives for this study are: Objective 1: To review hourly ozone concentration trends at eleven air monitoring stations (locations listed in Appendix A) from 1984 to 2011 with the purpose of building on our understanding of the current ambient ozone concentration in the LFV. Objective 2: To examine the ozone concentration trends at six air monitoring stations within the LFV from 1984 to 2011 with respect to the Canada-wide Standards (CWS) for ozone. The purpose of this objective is again to understand the current state of ambient ozone concentration in the LFV. Objective 3: To identify potential sites for the proposed WTEF. Objective 4: To extrapolate pollutant emission trajectories released from the potential sites (Objective 3). Objective 5: To evaluate the potential for ozone formation in the LFV related to emission trajectories. Objective 6: To create a qualitative ranking system summarizing the potential for increased ozone formation based on siting the new WTEF. Objective 7: To contextualize the contribution from WTEF emissions to ground-level ozone formation. 1.5. Method Overview 42.0. Current State of Ambient Ozone 2.1.1. Methods We built on previous preliminary analyses conducted in Reuten (2009) as well as similar analyses completed in the United Kingom (Jenkin, 2008) for eleven different monitoring locations in the LFV. These locations were then categorized accordingly (refer to Table 1A in Appendix A). 1. Urban Locations - Kitsilano and Vancouver 2. Suburban Locations - Richmond South and Surrey East 3. Industrial Locations - Second Narrows and Rocky Point 4. Higher Elevation Locations - Burnaby Mountain and Kensington Park 5. Rural Locations - Abbotsford, Chilliwack and Hope This analysis was implemented to understand different scale effects on ozone formation in the LFV. To do this, hourly ozone concentration trends were plotted for each location using data collected at its corresponding air monitoring station. Hourly ozone concentrations, measured in ppb, were obtained through the Metro Vancouver Air Quality Archive. We plotted the 100th, 98th, 75th, 50th, and 10th percentile for annual ozone concentrations at each location1. Signifiance analysis at the 95% confidence level was then conducted to determine whether the slope of each trend was different from zero for each trend line. In this analysis, it was assumed that the missing hourly ozone concentrations in the raw data were not significant due to the large amount of data provided. Therefore, the missing values were neglected when the data was manipulated to produce these trend analyses. In addition, if the total annual data for a station was less than 50% complete, it was also excluded from the analysis (refer to Table 2A in Appendix A). 2.1.2. Results In Figures 2 to 11, trend analyses for hourly ozone concentration at the eleven different stations were plotted and cat-egorized according to their location. For each station, bolded red lines indicate significant trends at the 95% confidence level. Similar to the trend analysis presented in Jenkins (2008), Figures 2 to 11 demonstrate that ozone concentration and formation in the LFV are also influenced by three scale effects: global, regional, and global. 1. Global-scale effects influence the background concentrations of ozone in the LFV2. Due to continual global increase of anthropogenic precursor emissions to form ground-level ozone; the background concentration of ozone is said to be increasing (Jenkin, 2008; Monks et al., 2009). 2. Regional-scale effects are due to the photochemical processing of NOx emissions as it travels down wind of its source. In the LFV, NOx emissions have been decreasing over the years due to emission standards and improved technology (refer to Appendix E). As a result, regional-scale ozone concentration downwind of its source has also decreased. 3. Local-scale effects can cause the removal of ozone as a result of NOx scavenging. Since NOx emissions are decreasing in the LFV; local-scale removal of ozone through the reaction with emitted NO has also decreased. Therefore, local-scale ozone concentration has increased as a result. ____________________1. The minima and 5th percentile were excluded due to the majority of results being close or equal to zero. 2. The background concentration is defined as the concentration of a pollutant in a pristine air mass in which anthropogenic sources of a relatively short lifetime are not present. 2.1. Hourly Ozone Trend Analysis at 11 Different Stations 5 2.1.2.1. Urban Locations Figure 2: Hourly ozone concentration trends for Kitsilano station. The 1986 data was not included in the analysis as the station was removed and data completeness was not met for this year (G. Doerksen). Figure 3: Hourly ozone concentration trends for the Downtown Vancouver station. The 2010 and 2011 data was not included as data completeness for these years were less than 50% (Table 2A). Both urban stations, Kitsilano (Figure 2), located in a dense residential area and Downtown Vancouver (Figure 3), located in a dense trafficked area, show significant upward trends in their 50th to 90th percentiles. With the recent and continuous commitment to reduce NOx emissions in the LFV (refer to Table 1E in Appendix E), this has consequently caused a downward trend in the maximum ozone concentration but an upward trend in the lower percentiles via NOx scavenging. In addition, increases in global background concentration is also a factor in the increasing ozone trend at the lower percentiles (Jenkins, 2008; Monk et al., 2009). 6 As the Downtown Vancouver station is highly influenced by light-duty vehicles, the Downtown Vancouver station is more likely to undergo NOx scavenging compared to the Kitsilano station station. For this reason, we observed lower hourly ozone concentrations at Downtown Vancouver overall. Both stations show the 10th percentile close to zero. This is a trend seen at most of the other stations as well, ex-cluding Burnaby Mountain, and is caused by sufficiently high NOx concentrations to effectively remove all ozone (Jenkin, 2008). 2.1.2.2. Suburban Locations Figure 4: Hourly ozone concentration trends for the Richmond South station. Figure 5: Hourly ozone concentration for the Surrey East. 7Similar to the trends at the Kitsilano station, Richmond South demonstrates an increasing trend in the lowerpercentiles (Figure 4). This pattern is due to reductions in NO emissions thus leading to a decrease in local scale NOx scavenging, coupled with increasing global baseline trends. We suspect the similar trends observed at both Kitsilano and Richmond South is because they are both located close to the Pacific Ocean and do not have any large NOx sources upwind. Surrey East on the other hand has a much larger decreasing trend at the 100th percentile compared to Kitsilano, Downtown Vancouver, and Richmond South (Figure 5). Given that the monitoring station is located further into the valley, the observed trend implies that the general decrease in urban NOx emissions upwind from the station reduces the influence of regional-scale ozone formation. 2.1.2.3. High Elevation Locations Figure 6: Hourly ozone concentration trends at the Kensington Park Station. Figure 7: Hourly ozone concentration trends at Burnaby Mountain. The 2003 data was not included as the station being moved during that year (Doerksen, 2012). the 1984 and 1986 data was not included as data completeness were less than 50% (Table 2A).8Kensington Park station, located 104 meters above mean sea level (asml), reflects the influence of the three scale effects on ozone concentration (Figure 6). In contrast, Burnaby Mountain, located 360 meters amsl, has a higher concentration at the 100th percentile compared to all the other stations (Figure 7), which could be attributed to the fact that local and regional scale processes are not in effect at this location because of the station?s high altitude. The NOx emissions occurring at lower altitudes are not transported up to the Burnaby Mountain station. Therefore, the trends seen at the Burnaby Mountain station are good indicators of global background concentration trends. 2.1.2.4. Industrial Locations Figure 8: Hourly ozone concentration trends for the Second Narrows station. Figure 9: Hourly ozone concentration trends for the Rocky Point station. 9The trends at the Second Narrows station demonstrate a relatively weak positive trend from the 10th to 98th percentile (Figure 8). This is the result of large emitters of NOx in close proximity to the station. For example, there are traffic line-ups for the North Vancouver transfer station, a chemical plant which emits large amounts of NOx and a major port terminal with ocean-going vessels (Doerksen, 2012). Thus local-scale ozone scavenging is a factor at this station along with the effects of increasing global baseline trends. The decrease in the 100th, 98th, 90th percentiles at Rocky Point station can be attributed to regional-scale processes (Figure 9). NOx emissions from westerly sources have been reduced, causing the decline in ozone concentration at the upper percentiles. In contrast, the lower percentiles continue to increase due to global scale background concentration trends as well as local-scale processes. Due to the shift away from industrial sources and therefore emissions in NOx at Rocky Point, less NOx scavenging is occurring and is therefore, contributing to higher ozone concentration at the lower percentiles. 2.1.2.5. Rural Locations Figure 10: Hourly ozone concentration trends for the Chilliwack station. Figure 11: Hourly ozone concentration trends for the Hope station. The 1991 data was not included as data completeness for this year was less than 50% (Table 2A). 10Chilliwack station located downwind of urban NOx sources show decreasing trends in the upper percentiles with higher hourly ozone concentrations compared with the stations located out west (Kitsilano, Downtown Vancouver, Richmond South) (Figure 10). The decreasing trend in the upper percentiles can be attributed to the reductions in NOx emissions upwind from the station while higher concentrations are due to the fact that emitted NOx from the west has reacted to form ozone by the time it reaches Chilliwack. In contrast, the increasing trend in the lower percentiles at both the Chilliwack and Hope (Figure 11) stations are due to global scale effects as well as local scale NOx scavenging. Abbotsford station has been moved multiple times and therefore, data was only available from 1998 to 2011. No reasonable conclusions can be made due to an insufficient amount of data (refer to Figure 1A in Appendix A). 2.1.2.6. Trend Summary In general, observations show that the maximum or 100th percentile at each station is decreasing with time as a result of a general reduction in anthropogenic NOx emissions thereby, reducing the regional-scale photochemical ozone production process. Easterly stations (Rocky Point, Surrey East, Chilliwack, and Hope) located downwind of urban NOx sources are more sensitive to chances in regional-scale reductions of NOx at the 98th to 90th percentile than more urban westerly stations. In contrast, the lower percentiles of all the stations mostly demonstrate an upward trend. This can be attributed to reductions in local-scale NOx emissions that can result in a decrease in NOx scavenging and thus higher ozone concentrations at the lower percentiles. In addition, increasing global background concentrations of ozone can also be a large factor in the upward trends in the lower percentiles. Due to economic development and population growth, global ozone emissions and thus global ozone concentrations are predicted to continue to increase over the next few decades (Monks et al., 2009). As a result, the LFV will continue to witness upward trends in the lower percentiles. Table 1: Summary table of the scale effects on trend observed at each station. Stations are listed from most westerly (top) to the most easterly station (bottom). Red background indicates increasing trends and blue indicates decreasing trend. Grey backgrounds indicate that the trends were not significant. 11The Canada-wide Standards (CWS) for PM2.5 and ozone was established following the 1998 Canada-wide Accord on Environmental Harmonization of the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) and its Canada-wide Environmental Standards Sub-Agreement. The CWS Agreement confirmed that PM and ozone negatively affect human health and aimed to establish national targets to minimize this risk. The current national target for ozone is set to: 65 parts per billion (ppb), 8-hour averaging time, achievement to be based on the 4th highest annual ambient measurement, averaged over 3 consecutive years. On October 20th, 2010, the Air Quality Management System (AQMS) was approved by CCME in order to better protect people and the environment. The AQMS contains several key elements and included the new Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) for PM2.5 and ozone which will begin reporting on PM2.5 and ozone in 2014 based on 2011, 2012, and 2013 data. The new CAAQS for ozone indicates: 63 parts per billion (ppb), to be based on the 3-year average of the annual 4th highest daily maximum, 8 hour average concentration by 2015. 62 parts per billion (ppb), to be based on the 3-year average of the annual 4th highest daily maximum, 8 hour average concentration by 2020. The 4th highest measurement is used in the achievement determination for both the CWS and CAAQS in order to mitigate contribution of pollutants over which jurisdictions have little or no control such as transboundary flows and ?exceptional events? (i.e. forest fires). 2.2.1. Methods Using the USEPA spatial scale classification system (refer to Appendix 1B) and detailed information on the active monitoring stations in the LFV (Doerksen, 2012), six key stations - Downtown Vancouver, Kitsilano, Richmond South, Abbotsford, Chilliwack, and Hope were selected and categorized as either reference, regional, or special study stations (refer to Appendix 2B). Table 2: Station Summary and Classification based on USEPA classification and detailed information on active monitoring stations in the LFV (Doerksen, 2012). 2.2. Canada-Wide Standards (CWS) Trend Analysis 12 Table 2 shows Downtown Vancouver, Kitsilano, and Richmond South are categorized as reference stations be-cause they satisfy the CWS site specification for community-oriented monitoring. Consequently, these stations are useful in illustrating the ambient ozone concentration levels and trends observed in urbanized areas west of the valley. Abbotsford Mill Lake is categorized as a study site because it measures the effect of the surrounding agricultural activities on air quality within the City of Abbotsford whereas, Chilliwack and Hope are categorized as regional stations because of their location downwind from major urbanized areas west of the valley. To determine whether the CWS for ozone has been exceeded, the methodology (refer to Appendix 3B) specified in Appendix D of the Guidance Document on Achievement Determination (GDAD, 2007) was applied to continuous hourly ozone concentrations obtained from Metro Vancouver for each of the six key stations over 28 years from 1984 to 2011 where available. 2.2.2. Results Table 3: Three-year annual average of the 4th highest daily 8-hour ozone concentrations at Downtown Vancouver, Kitsilano, Richmond South, Abbotsford, Chilliwack, and Hope. Data was obtained from Metro Vancouver from 1984 to 2011 where available. Cells shaded in darker blue are indicated to be over the new standard of 63 ppb. Table 3 summarizes the computed 3-year average of the 4th highest daily 8-hour mean ozone concentration at each station. The darker blue shaded cells indicate higher levels of ozone concentration associated with stations located further east of the LFV. Figure 12: CWS ozone concentration for DTVancouver. Trend is significant and increasing. Figure 13: CWS ozone concentration for Kitsilano. Trend is not satistically significant. 13 Figures 12 to 17 plot the values from Table 3 against the CWS 65 ppb standard for ozone (green line) and the new CAAQS 63 ppb standard (blue line). The red dashed in each figure illustrates the trend line. The figures reveal that ambient ozone levels calculated at Downtown Vancouver, Kitsilano, and Richmond South are far below the current 65 ppb CWS and 63 ppb CAAQS (Figure 12, 13, and 14). A linear regression t-test was performed to determine the statistical significance of the ozone trend observed at each station given a confidence level of 95%. Aside from Downtown Vancouver, the CWS ozone trends for all other monitoring stations remain statistically insignificant. Downtown Vancouver shows increasing ambient ozone concentration although this is most likely due to the station?s proximity to dense traffic in addition to the increase in global background concentration. Despite the trend being insignificant, Hope and Chilliwack monitoring stations have consistently reported high level of ozone concentrations suggesting that the ozone levels have not changed over the years and therefore, remain a valid concern. Based on achievement determination calculations on the annual data ranging from 1986 to 2011, Chilliwack has exceeded the CWS 26% of the time and CAAQS 30% of the time. In the same respect, based on annual data ranging from 1997 to 2011, Hope had exceeded the CWS 27% and the CAAQS 33% of the time, respectively. Figure 14: CWS ozone concentration for Richmond South. Trend is not satisfically significant. Figure 15: CWS ozone concentration for Abbotsford. Trend is not satistically significant. Figure 16: CWS ozone concentration for Hope. Trend is not statistically significant. Figure 17: CWS ozone concentration for Chilliwack. Trend is not statistically significant. 14Figure 18: This figure illustrates the months where the 4th highest annual ozone concentration were measured at each station. The 4th highest ozone concentration consistently occur during the summer months and peaks in June and July. Figure 19: The 4th highest ozone concentration correspond to evening hours from 19 (17:00PM) and 20 (8:00PM) during a 24-hour period. 15Figure 18 shows a strong summer (June, July and August) trend for the 4th highest annual ozone concentrations, which include values that do not necessarily exceed the 65 ppb CWS and 63 ppb CAAQS. Given that the LFV experiences the greatest total hours of sunshine during June, July, and August (Environment Canada, 2013), this pronounced summer trend lends support to the photochemical nature required for ozone formation (McKendry, 1993). The patterns in Figure 19 are in agreement with previous studies showing a morning increase and peak in concentration in the late afternoon. Sunrise in the early morning hours promote both the photolysis of NO2 and convective downtowns mixing of the nocturnal residual layer which is observed in the initial ozone concentration measured at hours 5 and 7. The peak concentration between hours 18 and 20 is due to the travel time required for the urban plume (Downtown Vancouver, Kitsilano, and Richmond South) to reach rural areas (Abbotsford, Chilliwack, and Hope) creating a time lag between peak production and peak ozone concentration (Krzyzanowsku, 2001). 16 3.1.1. Methods To determine potential release points of new NOx sites, we referred to a newspaper article from the Surrey North Delta Leader published on September 14, 2012 (Nagel, 2012). Four potential sites were projected to be located in-region in New Westminster, Burnaby, Surrey, Tsawwassen and two out-of-region sites, Gold River and Powell River. According to Metro Vancouver?s Development Process timeline, the decision on locating the facility in-region or out-of-region will not be made until mid-2014. As a result, despite our attempts to contact potential municipalities, only Gold River confirmed a potential site. In addition, Julian Zelazny, Environmental Service Coordinator for the FVRD confirmed that Powell River will not be a potential host for the facility, leaving us with five remaining potential municipalities for the facility - New Westminster, Burnaby, Surrey, Tssawwassen and Gold River. In order to select specific potential sites for the WTEF, we referred to land-use development maps to isolate areas set aside for industrial development in each municipality and selected potential locations that were similar to the current Burnaby WTEF. The selection characteristics therefore, included designated industrial zoning, low vegetation, no trees, buffer zones, as well as access to major roads. Consequently, these guidelines were used as the rationale for choosing the potential sites summarized in Figure 20. 3.1.2. Results Each potential site is indicated in Figure 20 and Table 4 along with its associated coordinates and rationale. The specific coordinates were determined based on the site characteristic rationale mentioned in section 3.1.1. Table 4: Coordinates for each potential site and their rationale 3.0. Pollutant Transport in the LFV3.1. Waste-to-Energy Facility Potential Sites 17 3.2.1. MethodsFour meteorological regimes were considered when estimating pollutant trajectories in the LFV. Each of the four regimes represented different meteorological conditions as seen in Table 5. The results from the HYSPLIT model for 1985 corresponds to Regime 1 and Regime 4; 1995 corresponds to Regime 3; 2001 corresponds to Regime 2, and the 2006 corresponds to Regime 1 and Regime 3. The coordinates for each potential site was used in the HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) (refer to Appendix 1C) to estimate particle emission trajectories from meteorological fields produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model runs are a key component of the ozone modelling study reported in Steyn et al. (2013) and Ainslie et al. (2013). From the model runs, the ozone episodes in 1985, 1995, 2001, and 2006 were used as an input for HYSPLIT to produce results for the seven potential WTEF sites (refer to Table 1C for model inputs summary). The specific years were chosen for this analysis (1985, 1995, 2001, 2006) because they represent the four common meteorological regimes (Table 4) noted in the Lower Mainland and are consistent with previous observations (Steyn et al., 2013). For all HYSPLIT runs, the height of emission release was assumed to be 60 meters since that is the current height for the smoke stack of the Burnaby WTEF. Figure 20: The red markers indicate the seven potential sites based on the rationale men-tioned in section 3.1.1. The blue markers are the active monitoring stations throughout the LFV (Doerksen, 2012). 3.2. HYSPLIT Runs 18 3.2.2. Results For each HYSPLIT run, multiple trajectories initiate from the emission release point where each trajectory correspond to its release time over a 72-hour period. On each trajectory line, the dots refer to the location of the emitted pollutant after every hour. The red dots are for daytime trajectories defined as 06:00 to 18:00, and the blue dots show nighttime trajectories from 19:00 to 05:00. Figure 21 shows an example simulation run that does not show the NOx/VOC boundary line and the area used for counting since those were manually included later on. In total, 28 simulations runs were produced (refer to Table 1C in Appendix C for details of each run). Table 5: Description of the meteorological conditions for each regime. Figure 21: Example of a HYSPLIT run output with stack height of 60m, a runtime of 72 hours and site coordinates as inputs. 19 3.3.1. Methods According to Steyn et al. (2013) and Ainslie et al. (2013), the boundary at which the region becomes NOx-limited rather than VOC-limited (NOx/VOC boundary) has changed over time. Figure 22: Modeled VOC/NOx ridgeline based on the [O3]/[NOy] = 7 ratio for all twelve models using 1985 emissions (red line and dots) and for all days using 2005 emissions (blue line and dots). The coloured shaded areas show the difference in percent in the LFV population density between 2005 and 1985, with blue representing a decline and red representing an increase (Steyn et al., 2013; Ainslie, 2013). The boundary appears to be moving west causing larger portions of the LFV to be in the NOx-limited area. In or-der to view the boundary movement in comparison with pollutant trajectories, the NOx/VOC boundaries from 1985 and 2005 were obtained from Ainslie et al. (2013) and superimposed over the HYSPLIT runs of the four ozone episode years for each station. The two maps were aligned and scaled accordingly for more accurate results. 3.3.2. ResultsThe result of the NOx/VOC boundary superimposed onto the HYSPLIT trajectories are shown in Figures 2D - 29D in Appendix D. The purple line refers to the NOx and VOC boundary lines for 1985 and the green line is for the 2005 boundary. The right side of the boundary is the NOx sensitive region and the left side represents the VOC senstive region. From these figures, we are able to project how emissions can be transported from each location and investigate whether it enters into the NOx-limited region. 3.3. NOx and VOC Limited Regions 204.0. Qualitative Method for Predicting Ozone Formation In order to provide a qualitative assessment of each location, an area within the LFV was selected east of the NOx/VOC boundary, where an increase in ozone formation is expected when NOx emissions cross the NOx/VOC boundary. To qualitatively rank each location for its relative impact on ozone formation, we counted all of the daytime trajectories (red dots) that were located within the defined area. Daytime trajectories were only considered as photochemical formation of ozone only occurs when sunlight is present. While each year represents a different meterological regime, the sum of these four regimes provide a general description of the meteorological conditions experienced in the Greater Vancouver Area. Therefore, we summed up the counts of all years for each location within the defined area. This served as a representative of the likelihood whether emissions from a specific location would travel into the NOx-limited region. 4.1. Methods Figure 23: HYSPLIT trajectories of New Westminster with 1985 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). The triangular area within the solid black line is defined as the sampling area. 21Table 6 summarizes and ranks the locations according to the number of points observed, with Surrey Two ranked the highest for ozone formation potential and Gold River ranked the lowest. It is important to note that the objective of these results were focused on the impact of air quality in the east side of the LFV, and does not represent the impacts it may have on other regions. 4.2. Results 5.0. Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Source Emissions in the LFV Based on Metro Vancouver?s 2005 Emissions Inventory, other sources of NOx were graphed to compare their relative contribution. Figure 24: Various mobile sources from Metro Vancouver are graphed to allow comparison between different sources of emission including the WTEF (Graphed produced using data from Table B-2 in Metro Vancouver?s 2005 Emissions Inventory (Metro Vancouver, 2007)). 226.0. DiscussionAs a whole, ozone trends demonstrated that high concentrations at the 100th percentile have become less common in the LFV. However, the observed ozone concentrations from west to east in the LFV shows an increasing trend that is likely due to the steep mountain ranges to the north and south, which channels the transport of air pollutants in a west-east direction. Consequently, it is suspected that not only are the monitoring stations located in the east of the LFV measuring community-based (local) ambient ozone concentration and global background concentrations, but they are also capturing pollutants transported from the west of the LFV (Doerksen, 2012). Evidence for this process can be seen by the decreasing trends of the 90th - 98th percentiles at Rocky Point, Surrey East, and Chilliwack (Table 1). In addition, given the recent concern over the potential addition of NOx emitted from the proposed WTEF and its impact on ambient ozone concentration in the LFV, it is important to consider the effects of transported NOx from the west on ozone formation in the east of the LFV. By creating a method of ranking the potential WTEF sites, a qualitative assessment can be made of the possible relative impacts from NOx emissions at different locations. As the ranking counts capture the likelihood for ozone formation with regards to the NOx- limited region defined by the NOx/VOC boundary and time of day (red dots), we may infer that higher counts lead to higher potential situations for ozone formation and thus an overall negative impact on the air quality on the LFV. This is particularly crucial for municipalities such as Hope and Chilliwack, which have a record of exceeding the CWS for ozone. According to our assessment, Surrey Two ranked highest among the seven potential WTEF locations (Table 6). It is expected that the emissions from this location would have the highest impact on air quality relative to the other sites. As counts decrease with each site, the risk on air quality in the LFV decreases. As a result, Gold River demonstrates the lowest impact on air quality with NOx emissions from the WTEF barely reaching into the NOx-limited region of the LFV. However, as demonstrated in Figure 23, mobile sources in Metro Vancouver have larger NOx emissions than that of the WTEF (refer to Appendix E for full description of NOx sources in Metro Vancouver and the FVRD), with cars andlight trucks being key emitters until the year 2010. Over the years, emissions standards and improved technology in light-duty vehicles have led to a reduction in NOx emissions. As a result, NOx trends have been decreasing since 1990 and are projected to decrease up to 2020 (Metro Vancouver, 2007). However, by 2015, it is expected that marine vessels will become a key NOx emitter (refer to Table 4E in Appendix E). Not only are reductions of marine emissions not as significant compared to other key sectors, but it is expected to increase due to increases in shipping (Metro Vancouver, 2007). 7.0. Conclusion Given the different potential WTEF sites with regards to the NOx/VOC boundary and our understanding of the effects of global, regional, and local influences on ozone concentration in the LFV, it can be suggested that additional NOx from the west will impact ozone concentration trends at locations downwind. In addition, this may induce exceedance of the current 65 ppb CWS. Using a qualitative ranking system, the Surrey Two location demonstrates the highest potential for ozone formation within the LFV. The out-of-region location, Gold River, demonstrates the lowest potential. It is important to note that our ranking system only takes into account meteorological regimes related to ozone exceedances. Other factors such as the amount of NOx and VOCs emitted into the atmosphere as well as other sources must be acknowledged. In an effort to improve air quality in the LFV, actions must be taken to decrease ozone precursor emissions from both regional and local sources on the overall ambient ozone concentration. On a regional scale, we recommend: ? Reduction in NOx sources in Metro Vancouver especially with projected increases in marine emissions. Although WTEF is an additional NOx source that can negatively impact regional air quality, other sources have been highlighted to have a greater NOx contribution. ? Research into other options of waste diversion before pursuing WTEF. On a local scale, we recommend: ? Addressing unique sources within the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD). Ozone concentrations at the lower percentiles are increasing and are governed by global and local sources. Given that we are unable to control global trends, updated in the 1998 FVRD Air Quality Management Plan will be important for improving (decreasing) the overall state of ambient ozone concentration in the valley. 2324Work Cited Ainslie, B. and Steyn, D.G. (2007). Spatiotemporal Trends in Episodic Ozone Pollution in the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, in Relation to Mesoscale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Emissions. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 1631-1644.Ainslie, B. and Steyn, D.G. (2007). Spatiotemporal Trends in Episodic Ozone Pollution in the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, in Relation to Mesoscale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Emissions. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 1631-1644.Banta, R. M., Shepson, P. B., Bottenheim, J. W., Anlauf, K. G., Wiebe, H. A., Gallant, A., . . . Steyn, D. G. (1997). Nocturnal cleansing flows in a tributary valley. Atmospheric Environment, 31(14), 2147- 2162.Doerksen, G. (2012). Station Information: Lower Fraser Valley Air Quality Monitoring Network. Retrieved from Metro Vancouver website: http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/ Lower Fraser Valley Air QualityMonitoringNetwork2012StationInformation.pdfDraxler, R., Stunder, B., Rolph, G., Stein, A., & Taylor, A. (2012) HYSPLIT4 User?s Guide.Douglas, S. G. & Kessler, R. C. (1991). Analysis of airflow patterns in the south-central coast air basin during the SCCCAMP 1985 intensive measurement periods. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 30, 607-631.Environment Canada. (2013). Canadian Climate Normals 1971-2000. Retrieved on March 20, 2013, from http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_e.html?stnID=702&ov=&lang= &dCode=1&dispBack=1&StationName=abbotsford&SearchType=Containsprovince=ALL&prov ut=&month1=0&month2=12GDAD. (2007). Guidance Document on Achievement Determination. Canada-Wide Standards for Particulate Matter and Ozone. Revised. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, 2007. PN 1391, 978-1-896997-74-2-PDF.).Jenkin, M.E. (2008). Trends in ozone distributions in the UK since 1990: Local, regional and global influences. Atmospheric Environment, 42, 5434-5445.Krzyzanowski, J. (2001). Tropospheric ozone in the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia and the Threat of Injury to Forest Plants. Unpublished master?s thesis, University of British Columbia.Kurita. H,Sasaki. K, and Muroga. H, (1985). Long-range transport of air pollution under light gradient wind conditions. J. Climate Appl. Meteor.,24, 425?434.McKendry, I.G. (1993). Synoptic Circulation and Summertime Ground-Level Ozone Concentrations at Vancouver, British Columbia. Vancouver, BC: University of British Columbia.McKendry, I. G., Steyn, D. G., Banta, R. M., Strapp, W., Anlauf, K. & Pottier, J. (1998). Daytime photo- chemical pollutant transport over a tributary valley lake in Southwestern British Columbia. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 37, 393-404.25Metro Vancouver. (2007). 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Emissions Inventory & Forecast and Backcast. Burnaby, BC: Policy and Planning Department. Website:http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications Publications/ExecSummary_2005_LFV.pdfMetro Vancouver. (2011). Recycling and Solid Waste Management 2011 Report. Retrieved from Metro Vancouver?s Reports and Statistics. Website:http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publ ications/2011SolidWasteManagementAnnualSummary.pdfMonks, P. S., Granier, C., Fuzzi, S., Stohl, A., Williams, M. L, Akimoto, H., . . . von Glasow, R. (2009). Atmospheric composition change ? global and regional air quality. Atmospheric Environment, 43, 5268-5350.Nagel, J. (2012, September 14). Metro may burn special waste at new incinerator. Surrey North Delta Leader. Retrieved October 19, 2012, from http://www.theprogress.com/news/169784326.html?mobile=trueNational Academy of Sciences. (2000). Executive Summary: Waste Incineration and Public Health. Washington, DC: Committee on Health Effects of Waste Incineration, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, & National Research Council. Retrieved from http://www.metrovancouver org/services/solidwaste/planning/ReportsforQA/NAS-NRC_WasteIncineration.pdfPottier, J.L., H. P. Deuel, and S. C. Pryor, 2000: Application of the UAM-V and use of indicator species to assess control strategies for ozone reductions in the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 65, 459-467.Reuten, C. (2009). Analysis of Ozone Trends in the LFV. Unpublished analysis.Sewer Use Bylaw No.299, Greater Vancouver Sewerage and Drainage District (2007). Retrieved from Metro Vancouver website: http://www.metrovancouver.org/boards/bylaws/Bylaws/GVSDD_Bylaw_299.pdfSteyn, D.G., Ainslie, B., Reuten, C., & Jackson, P. L. (2013) A Retrospective Analysis of Ozone Formation in the Lower Fraser Valley, B.C. Part I: Dynamical Model Evaluation. Atmosphere-Ocean, DOI:10.1080 07055900.2013.781940Sustainable Region Initiative. (2010). Integrated Solid Waste and Resource Management ? a Solid Waste Management Plan for the Greater Vancouver Regional District and Member Municipalities. (Cat. 4374739.) Vancouver, BC: Metro Vancouver. Title page top image. Picture of Fraser Valley. Retrived from ?http://www.fvessc.com/?. Title page right image. Picture of garbage crane. Retrived from ?http://www.biv.com/article/20130212 BIV0114/302129964/-1/BIV/city-trash-talk-vancouvers-plans-to-turn-garbage-into-power,? by J.S. Denis, 2013, Business Vancouver. Tri Environmental Consulting Inc. (2012). Metro Vancouver 2011 Solid Waste Composition Monitoring. Burnaby, BC: Tri Environmental Consulting Inc.US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). (2004). Chapter 10 Assessing Air Quality: Monitoring. Retrieved March 18, 2013, from http://www.epa.gov/ttn/fera/data/risk/vol_1/chapter_10.pdfWheeler, M. (2013). Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry: Lecture 20 [Lecture notes]. Retrieved from https://www.elearning.ubc.caA1 Table 1A: Monitoring stations for all 11 locations. Increasing rate of change (ppb/year) are in red and decreasing rates or change are in blue. Significant trends at the 95% confidence level are indicated in bold. Table 2A: Data completeness (in percent) for each year. Yellow boxes indicate data that was less than 50% complete and thus was not included in the trend analysis. Figure 1A: Rural location. Hourly ozone concentration trends for the Abbotsford station. Dotted lines indicate the years in which the station was moved. The 1998 data was not included as data completeness for this year was less than 50% (Table 2A). Appendix A A21B: Key Stations Criteria for the Canada-wide Standard Evaluation The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) defines five categories of spatial scales for siting State, Local, and National AirMonitoring Stations: Microscale (MC): Localized areas such as downtown street canyons, traffic corridors or a major stationary source such as a power plant where the general public would be exposed to maximum concentrations. Middle Scale (MD): Downtown areas that people typically pass through, areas near major roadways, areas such as parking lots, and feeder streets generally with dimensions of a few hundred meters. Neighbourhood Scale (N): Reasonably homogenous urban sub-regions with dimensions of a few kilometers and of generally more regular shape than the middle scale. Urban Scale (U): Entire metropolitan or rural area ranging in size from 4 to 50km. Regional Scale (R): Dimensions of as much as 100s of kilometers with some degree of homogeneity. Therefore, to determine representative concentrations in areas where people spend a large part of their time, monitoring stations should be located in residential, commercial, and industrial areas at the urban and neighbourhood scales (GDAD, 2007; US EPA). 2B: Selecting and Classifying Key Stations Using the US EPA spatial scale classification system (US EPA) and detailed information on active monitoring stations in the LFV(Doerksen, 2012), the six key stations were categorized as either reference stations, regional stations, or special study stations. Reference Station Rationale Downtown Vancouver, Kitsilano, and Richmond South are categorized as reference stations because they satisfy the CWS achievement standards for community-oriented monitoring sites located where people live, work, and play. a. Downtown Vancouver: situated in an area of dense traffic surrounded by mixed multiple-story and high-rise residential and commercial buildings. b. Vancouver Kitsilano: located in a densely populated residential neighbourhood on the west side of Vancouver. c. Richmond South: stationed in an established residential neighbourhood, the dominant land-use within 5km of the station is agriculture. Special Study Station Rationale Due to its location, Abbotsford Mill Lake station has been used to study the effect of surrounding agricultural activities on air quality within the City of Abbotsford. Regional Study Station Rationale Chilliwack and Hope are ideal stations to study regional air quality and pollutant distribution in the Lower Fraser Valley due to its location in open areas and downwind of major metropolitan areas to the west. a. Chilliwack: located in an open area in the centre of the Fraser Valley, the site is situated to monitor regional air quality in the Chilliwack area. b. Hope: located at the rural Hope airport, the station is a key site for studying pollutant distribution within Appendix B A3 the Lower Fraser Valley. During specific meteorological conditions, air quality can be influenced by air pollutants transported from areas to the west in combination with more localized pollutants. 3B. Determining CWS Achievement Continuous hourly ozone concentration data were obtained from Metro Vancouver from each of the key stations over 28 yearsfrom 1984 to 2010 where available. To determine whether each key station met the CWS Achievement Standards, Section 4.3 of the CCME Guidance Document (GDAD, 2007) was applied to the hourly data. The sections below outline the methodologies in the sequence suggested by GDAD used to compute the CWS value at each of the key stations. The CWS Numercial Target: 1. A CWS of 65 ppb, 8-hour averaging time, by 2010 2. Achievement to be based on the 4th highest measurement annually, averaged over 3 consecutive yearsGDAD Section 4.3.1 Sampling Frequency and 4.3.2 Data Completeness Following closely the calculation methodologies outlined in section 4.3 of the Guidance Document, data from each year at each station underwent a daily and annual data completeness check to ensure that 75% of the possible hours in the day and 75% of the days from April to September in the year were available for processing. Table 1B: The daily and annual data completeness table summarizes data completeness at each station to ensure sufficient data was available for analysis. Where data was insufficient, the annual data set was taken out of the CWS determination process. GDAD Section 4.3.3 Calculating 8-hour Averages and Section 4.3.4 Calculating Daily Maximum 8-hour Average Concentrations Once the data completeness has been checked, a running 8-hour average for each hour (total of 8760 hours) of each valid year is computed. The daily maximum 8-hour running average for a 24 hour period was then assigned to each calendar day. GDAD Section 4.3.5 Calculating the Annual 4th Highest Daily 8-hour Ozone Value The 4th highest value in the array of daily maximum 8-hour running average is then assigned to each year. GDAD Section 4.3.6 Calculating the 3-Year AverageWith priority given to the three most recent consecutive years, the average of those three years? annual 4th highest ozone concentration was calculated and assigned to its corresponding 3-year cohort. A41C. MethodsDraxler et al. (2012) describe how the HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory, also known as HYSPLIT, function and work. HYSPLIT uses a puff or particle approach in order to compute complex dispersion and deposition trajectories. The data that is used as input for HYSPLIT can be found from archives that already exist or from forecast outputs that are formatted and ready to be used by HYSPLIT. The meteorological data are also used as inputs and are gridded on a latitude-longitude grid or it could also be on Polar, Lambert, or Mercator projection. Calculating the air concentration with this model requires the emission and physical characteristics of the pollutant. With this information, the calculation can be accomplished with a single puff or particle linked to each type of pollutant. Another approach considers the possibility that several species may be in a single puff. This can be used to calculate chemical reactions in which the emitted species travel the same transport pathway (Draxler et al., 2012). Additionally, by assuming the Gaussian or Top-Hat horizontal distribution for a puff or a certain number of particles, the dispersion of pollutants can be computed (Draxler et al., 2012). If a puff increases in size and goes beyond the space of the grid cell, it splits into multiple puffs. Another method assumes a horizontal distribution of a puff and vertical expansion of particles. This method is more accurate because it incorporates vertical dispersion of particles with the increasing amount of particles showing the distribution of pollutants (Draxler et al., 2012). Table 1C: Summary of the 28 HYSPLIT runs showing the significant year, potential site coordinate, stack height, and runtime as inputs. Appendix C A5 Figure 1D: Modeled VOC/NOx ridgeline based on the [O3]/[NOy] = 7 ratio for all twelve models using 1985 emissions (red line and dots) and for all days using 2005 emissions (blue line and dots). The coloured shaded areas show the difference in percent in the LFV population density between 2005 and 1985, with blue representing a decline and red representing an increase (Steyn et al., 2013; Ainslie, 2013). Appendix D Figure 2D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Burnaby One with 1985 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Black boundary indicates count area. Figure 3D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Burnaby One with 1995 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). A6 Figure 4D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Burnaby One with 2001 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 5D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Burnaby One with 2006 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 6D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Burnaby Two with 2001 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 7D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Burnaby Two with 2006 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represnted in green (2005) and purple (1985). A7 Figure 8D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Burnaby Two with 1985 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Black boundary indicates count area. Figure 9D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Burnaby Two with 1995 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 10D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Surrey One with 1985 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Black boundary indicates count area. Figure 11D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Surrey One with 1995 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). A8 Figure 12D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Surrey One with 2001 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 13D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Surrey One with 2006 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 14D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Surrey Two with 2001 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 15D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Surrey Two with 2006 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). A9 Figure 16D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Surrey Two with 1985 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Black boundary indicates count area. Figure 17D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Surrey Two with 1995 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 18D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of New West. with 1985 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Black boundary indicates count area. Figure 19D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of New West. with 1995 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). A10 Figure 20D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of New West. with 2001 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 21D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of New West. with 2006 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 22D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Tsaww. with 1985 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Black boundary indicates count area. Figure 23D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Tsaww. with 1995 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). A11 Figure 24D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Tsaww. with 2001 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 25D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Tsaww. with 2006 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 26D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Gold Rivers. with 1985 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Black boundary indicates count area. Figure 27D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Gold Rivers. with 1995 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). A12 Figure 28D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Gold Rivers. with 2001 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). Figure 29D: HYSPLIT Trajectories of Gold Rivers. with 2006 conditions. The NOx/VOC boundaries are represented in green (2005) and purple (1985). A13Appendix E Figure 1E: Graph representing total NOx emission from different emission sources in Metro Vancouver. (Graph produced by using data from Table B-2 in Metro Vancouver, 2007) Table 1E: Sub-total values for NOx emission for each source in Metro Vancouver measured in metric tonnes of NOx (data from Table B-2 in Metro Vancouver, 2007)A14 Figure 2E: Graph representing total NOx emission from different emission sources in the FVRD. (Graph produced by using data from Table B-2 in Metro Vancouver, 2007) Table 2E: Sub-total values for NOx emission for each source in Fraser Valley Regional District measured in metric tonnes of NOx (data from Table B-2 in Metro Vancouver, 2007). Figure 3E: Various mobile sources from the FVRD are graphed to allow comparsion between different sources including the emissions from the WTEF. (Graph produced by using data from Table B-2 in Metro Vancouver, 2007)A15 Table 3E: NOx emission values given in metric tonnes for each factor in mobile sources in FVRD with the addition of the WTE emission values (data from Table B-2 in Metro Vancouver, 2007). Table 4E: NOx emission values in metric tonnes for each factor in mobile sources in MV with the addition of the WTE emission values (data from Table B-2 in Metro Vancouver, 2007).

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