Thursday, March 4, 2010

Huckabee up in Georgia

It's been assumed the South will be a source of strength for Sarah Palin if she decides to make a 2012 Presidential bid, but our early polling isn't backing up that assumption.

In Georgia we find Mike Huckabee as the leader with 38% to 28% for Mitt Romney and 25% for Palin. Palin has also finished behind Huckabee in recent polls of North Carolina and Alabama, and she's in third behind both Huckabee and Romney in Texas.

Huckabee won Georgia in 2008 with 34%, so this early 38% standing suggests he's picked up a little bit of support since then. Romney got 30% last time so his support is basically unchanged since last time.

Huckabee has the lead with both moderates and conservatives. Interestingly Romney outruns Palin with both groups as well, including a 28-24 advantage over her with conservatives. As has been the case in other states Palin is not getting any boost from female voters- her 24% level of support from them is pretty much the same as her 25% with men.

If Palin is going to do well in any of the biggest, most delegate rich states her best chances would seem to be in the South. But for now her poll numbers there aren't that great.

The reason she is weak in the South, is only because thanks to some of you, you convinced us that Palin can't win the general election, so all of us switched to the other conservative in the race, which is Huckabee. We're not stupid! I for myself always supported Huckabee over Palin but many of my fellow conservatives switched alegiance from Palin to Huckabee.

Data-nerd Nate Silver already came to the same conclusion: Palin's strength is not in the south. Besides, the relevant tests will still be IA and SC (NH would likely go for Romney). Both IA and SC are expected to be stronger Palin states than NC or GA or TX or NM.

In every state polled thus far where Huckabee finished first -- AL (not yours, but you mentioned it), GA and NC, Huckabee wins OUT OF the MOE; in TX, he is in second place but IN THE MOE - 3% behind with a 4.5% MOE.

More importantly, he is doing better than he did in 2008 in all three states -- including TX -- for two important reasons: His FOX hosting situation has made him better known, more defined (by himself) and more entrenched; and, secondly, McCain was a stronger candidate against Huckabee than Romney is.

The conventional wisdom is wrong on two points:

1. Palin is NOT stealing Huckabee's base; and

2. Other than IA, Huckabee clashed more with McCain than he did with Romney.

Christy, like to see your name in the comments or something? Nice "bible thumping" comment btw......makes you real credible.

I really get tired of the Palin apologizers and their "just wait" mentality. We've waited, and waited, and waited for her poll numbers to improve. They haven't, and in fact, have just kept getting worse.

First, it was just you wait until she can get out of Alaska and increase her national profile. She did that, didn't help. Next, just you wait until her book and all the exposure on Oprah, Fox showing the same interviews 24/7, and people seeing the real her. We waited.......it didn't help. Then her big break on Fox News where she has been a nauseating fixture for them. That was supposed to secure her poll numbers. Didn't happen. Then there was the Tea Party speech with national coverage that was supposed to propel her. Poll numbers still in the toilet. And now you want was to see the "big impact" her appearance at SRLC will have?

Hi Tom. Could you include 2008 primary vote as a crosstab in one poll?

Explanation: If Huckabee's vote share is the same, and the same is true for Romney, that means that Palin is kind of taking McCain's votes. But obviously she (as the crazy right-winger) isn't actually getting the same primary voters as McCain (moderatish Conservative).

Could it be that the candidates have actually completely changed their voter groups since 2008? That Romney is getting the McCain vote, that Huckabee splits his own old vote with Palin, but in exchange also picks up some of the old Romney vote?

More good news for Mike Huckabee. The Governor is in a class all of his own in my opinion. His experience, leadership abilities, and integrity make him the unquestioned leader for the 2012 GOP race, if he decides to run. The GOP establishment needs to admit their errors in 2008 of trashing Huckabee and distorting his record beyond recognition. If they are wise, they will get aboard the Huck Train before they get left at the station with Obama and his team of socialists in charge for an additional 4 years. Only one true conservative has the ability to de-throne Obama. Mike is that man. It's not even close.

Huckabee is clearly the superior of the three. Romney is every negative stereotype of the GOP establishment (rich, big business, etc) and really doesn't have any core convictions.Palin just can't get mass support outside of her core group. She has strong supporters, but they are limited in their outreach.Huckabee is a strong conservative who appeals to moderates and independents and is by far the best communicator of the message.I see no one more experienced or more qualified to lead the country.

Mike Huckabee is the best conservative the GOP has going for them right now and I don't see that changing in 2012. He respects his opponents' views, but is not hesitant in the least way to stand by his own principles even over party! You go, Mike Huckabee 2012!