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U.S. stock market futures pointed to a lower open this morning (SPY -0.3%), amid news of North Korea's firing of four ballistic missiles and President Donald Trump's accusation that his predecessor, Barack Obama, wiretapped him.

What Is Moving the Markets

PARIS/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - France's PSA Group has agreed to buy Opel from General Motors in a deal valuing the business at 2.2 billion euros ($2.3 billion), creating a new European car giant to challenge market leader Volkswagen .

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Co's decision to sell its European operations doubles down on a bet that the company can win by being less global, but more profitable, in an auto industry increasingly driven by software.

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Shares in Deutsche Bank fell almost 7 percent in early trading on Monday after the lender announced an 8 billion-euro ($8.48 billion) capital increase that Chief Executive John Cryan had previously declared a last resort.

BERLIN (Reuters) - Investor sentiment in the euro zone improved more than expected in March, hitting its highest level in almost 10 years on Monday, as concerns that global political risks could end an economic upswing dissipated.

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday, wiping out some of the previous session's gains, as lower growth targets in China and concerns over Russia's compliance with a global deal to cut oil output sparked renewed worries over a crude oil supply glut.

DUBAI (Reuters) - Fund managers and institutional investors expect oil giant Saudi Aramco to have a market capitalization of $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion when it sells shares to the public next year, a survey by regional investment bank EFG Hermes showed on Monday.

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Shanghai should lead China's plans to reform and advance innovation, the official Xinhua news agency has reported President Xi Jinping as saying at the annual meeting of parliament.

"I just found your site and began reading the backlog of posts on the importance of managing risk and avoiding draw downs. However, the following chart would seem to counter that argument. In the long-term, bear markets seem harmless (and relatively small) as this literature would indicate?"

This same chart has been floating around the "inter-web," in a couple of different forms for the last couple of months. Of course, if you study it at "face value" it certainly would appear that staying invested all the time certainly seems to be the optimal strategy.

The problem is the entire chart is deceptive.

More importantly, for those saving and investing for their retirement, it's dangerous.

Here is why.

The first problem is the most obvious, and a topic I have addressed many times in past missives, you must worry about corrections.

Bloomberg FX strategist, Vincent Cignarella, explains why for dollar bulls betting on a continued rise in the dollar, the lack of a strong move higher following last week's repricing of March rate hike odds may be an ominous development.

Dollar Bulls Despair as March Fed Hike Looks Like It's Baked In

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's remarks Friday all but confirmed what traders rushed to price in last week: a rate hike mid-month is close to a lock.

The heightened confidence about March may actually spell trouble for dollar bulls in coming days -- there's little in the way of fresh incentives to buy more of the U.S. currency right away, after it surged to an almost six-week high last week. Fed speakers are now in a blackout period until their March 14-15 meeting, and for major economic data, traders have to wait for February jobs figures to be released March 10.

"A further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate" in March if employment and inflation continue to evolve as expected, Yellen said in the text of a speech Friday in Chicago. She also said the removal of accommodation is unlikely to be as slow as the past couple years, when the Fed hiked by a quarter-point in two consecutive Decembers.

But for market participants, that may not have been hawkish enough. After her remarks, futures indicate traders actually saw less of a chance that the Fed will achieve its projected pace of three hikes in 2017. The Bloomberg dollar index sank to the day's lowest levels after her appearance. It dropped 0.7 percent, its worst day since January. It also stalled at its 55-day moving average, dropping back to a support level at its 100-day average.

David McWilliams interviewed Lara Marlowe and Cormac Lucey about the elections in France (April 23 and May 7) for TV3's Agenda and the short interview about the French elections, Le Pen and the risks posed to the euro is a must watch.

Key points covered
- "Could the French say 'au revoir' to the euro?"
- Brexit vote and Trump election given a "lot of cold chills"
- Le Pen has "promised to take France out of euro"
- Her election would be "catastrophic for Europe and the euro"
- "If people break out from the lunatic asylum ... Ireland should leave the euro..."
- 'Going bankrupt slowly and then suddenly' as per Hemingway's warning
- "Money moves when it is panicked ..."
- This is now not a "fringe" concern - deep insiders are warning
- Lack of rational debate about risks - blindly dismiss concerns
- "Seeing a slow motion bank run..."
- "Think about and prepare for..."

Population aging and the consequent increased financial burden on the U.S. Social Security system is driving new proposals for program reform. One major reform goal is to create stronger incentives for older individuals to stay in the workforce longer. However, hiring discrimination against older workers creates demand-side barriers that limit the effectiveness of these supply-side reforms. Evidence from a field experiment designed to test for hiring discrimination indicates that age discrimination makes it harder for older individuals, especially women, to get hired into new jobs.

By one standard, the world's population is 20 times richer than our ancestors in the Agrarian Age, but that measure does not count the incredible expansion of choices undreamt of even a few years ago, writes Brad DeLong.

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