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Today’s event represents the first occurrence of a suicide bombing in Mauritania. There had been warning signs. When the first Mauritanian blew himself up in Bouira (Algeria) during the summer of 2008 as part of an AQIM operation, this triggered a fear that his example may inspire other extremists recruited in Mauritania. Over the past year and a half, the Mauritanian police has raided several AQIM safehouses in Nouakchott and found arms and explosives, including explosive belts—suggesting that one or more people were already, at the time, willing to blow themselves up.

The suicide attack before the French embassy today represents the realization of this worrisome prospect, and follows the line of attacks targeting either the Mauritanian army or Western expatriates. This attack is also, in all likelihood, a strong message sent to the newly-elected (and already contestated) President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, who has sworn to rid Mauritania of terrorism. This new incident--which has not yet been claimed by anyone--also suggests that the terrorist threat, although recent in Mauritania, may be there to stay. The dismantling of the Mauritanian branch of AQIM and the numerous arrests in early 2008 did not prevent the group from reforming.

It will be interesting, in the next few months, to observe how the recent surge in the Malian army’s effort to go after AQIM on its territory (with the help of the Tuareg community who knows well the terrain and is well versed in the art of guerilla warfare) will impact on neighboring countries. The area of the Sahara between Mauritania, Algeria and Mali has long been a lawless zone and a sanctuary for AQIM’s southern cells. If Mali is successful in chasing AQIM out of its territory (and assuming they can keep that territory clear), and if the Algerians are able to do the same on theirs, will these cells relocate to Mauritania ?

Chances that it was a Tuareg are nil: Tuaregs don't blow themselves, either in front of embassies or elsewhere. There was not a single instance of use of suicide bombing during any of the Tuareg insurgencies of 1962, 1990-1996 or 2006-2009. Actually, there was never an instance of use of explosives beyond grenades and mines. Plus the Tuareg population in Mauritania is very, very small. and Tuaregs generally could not care less about Abdel Aziz or France. This is not to say that some individual young Tuaregs can not be radicalized and recruited by AQIM--not sure if this has happened already, but it is definitely something that could happen.

The use of an explosive belt suggests that the guy who blew himself had some sort of logistical network behind him, including a bomb expert. This points towards AQIM, and I would be very, very surprised if they did not claim this bombing in the next few days.

And yes, it was not a particularly good bombing, especially since the French embassy in Nouakchott has one of the most lax security I have ever seen (especially when you compare it to the German and US fortified castles a few blocks away). I honestly can't believe this guy could not have gotten at least inside the compound, had he tried to.

I don't think it's a Tuareg hit, Alma. BUt there was some speculation in the local media, perhaps because many there consider the Tuareg as their own sort of Basque movement.

Having lived with the Tuareg, I've always found this specious.

Perhaps someone could pen a dissertation someday on how many times franchises of al Qaeda aren't seen as the original instigators of the violence, even when they wield weapons and methods that are alien to the blamed party but standard for Salafi suicide cells.

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