Last season, the Edmonton Oilers were handily outplayed by the opposition in every department. The opposition did a better job in the neutral zone than the Oilers, gaining the offensive blue line both with and without possession of the puck more frequently than Edmonton did. Once in the offensive zone – either by gaining the zone through possession or off a faceoff – the Oilers were worse at generating shots than their opposition. They lost their contest with the opposition in all three zones.

One of my projects this season was tracking every entry both the Oilers and their opposition made into the attacking zone; I’ve only just now caught up to a few games I was unable to track earlier in the season but even at first blush the data is remarkable at both the team and individual level (and I have to thank Eric Tulsky for technical support on the project). We’ll start today by taking a first pass at some of the team-level stuff (all figures below for 5-on-5 play).

The basics. Aside from the odd game involving a goal from centre ice, every goal has to come from the attacking zone, which makes how a team gains the zone of vital interest. There are a number of ways, but they can be broadly split into three categories:

– Gaining the zone with possession. This is the best manner, from a goal-scoring perspective. In 2013, the Oilers and their opposition combined for 0.57 shots or missed shots each time they gained the blue line with possession of the puck.

– Gaining the zone without possession. Most commonly, this method is achieved through dump-in or tip-in. It does result in some offence, but is far less effective than the alternative; this season the Oilers and their opposition managed 0.241 shots or missed shots when gaining the zone without retaining possession.

– An offensive zone faceoff. Unsurprisingly, this method falls part-way between the other two but is closest to gaining the zone without puck possession, doubtless because a) possession could go either way and b) both teams have full five-man units in the zone. In these situations, the Oilers and their opponents combined for an average of 0.315 shots or missed shots per faceoff.

How the Oilers did in the neutral zone. We can measure this indirectly by counting how many times over the 48-game schedule each team gained the other’s blue line. In 2013, the opposition entered Edmonton’s territory 3,412 times; the Oilers managed the same feat only 3,213 times; it’s a small disadvantage but it’s one reflective of a team that isn’t able to move the puck forward in the neutral zone as effectively as the opposition. One thing working in the Oilers’ favour is that the bulk of this disadvantage comes in the form of dump-ins and deflections: the Oilers’ opposition managed only 49 more entries with possession than Edmonton did, but 150 more entries without possession.

How the Oilers did in the offensive/defensive zone. The Oilers’ biggest problems didn’t come in the neutral zone, though. Things were worse elsewhere, because the opposition was far more likely to get a shot once they’d gained the attacking zone than the Oilers were. Let’s look again at the three scenarios considered above:

– Gaining the zone with possession. The raw numbers tell the story here: in 1,642 entries with possession, the Oilers managed 889 shots (and missed shots). In 1,691 entries with possession, the opposition managed 1,021. While the opposition was averaging more than 0.6 shots per entry, the Oilers only created 0.54.

– Gaining the zone without possession. The story was no better here. The Oilers averaged less than 0.22 shots or missed shots per entry without puck possession; the opposition managed 0.26.

– An offensive zone faceoff. And, again, the trend continues: a faceoff in the Oilers’ zone was going to result in an average of 0.34 shots/missed shots for the opposition; only 0.29 shots were generated per faceoff in the opposition’s end.

Since the comparison here is between the Oilers and their opposition, it’s worth asking: are these offensive or defensive flaws? In other words, is the opposition better at generating shots because the Oilers are bad defensively or because they didn’t do enough as a team offensively 5-on-5? This data isn’t available league-wide, but judging from work done with other clubs in previous years the answer would appear to be “both” – the Oilers shots against rates are at the high end of other teams previously studied and their shots for rates are at the low end of the scale.

There is plenty more to come on this vein. We’ll explore shots and goal totals, look at the performance of individuals, and much more; this was just a first look at some of the team-level data. Even with this sort of broad look, there’s a very clear message: the Oilers need to be much better in all three zones if they hope to compete with the rest of the conference 5-on-5.

Note: Originally, this piece referred to a percentage of faceoffs and entries that generated shots; what was actually meant was the average number of shots generated per faceoff or entry. The two numbers are actually not identical because some faceoffs and entries will result in multiple shots. JW.

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