Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Turkey has begun a defacto blockade of Russian naval vessels, preventing transit through the Dardanelles and the Strait of Bosporus, between the Black Sea and Mediterranean. According to the AIS tracking system for the movement of maritime vessels, only Turkish vessels are moving along the Bosphorus, and in the Dardanelles there is no movement of any shipping at all.At the same time, both from the Black Sea, and from the Mediterranean Sea, there is a small cluster of ships under the Russian flag, just sitting and waiting.- courtesy of MarineTraffic -

Turkey slammed the door on Russian sea travel Sunday,
effectively shutting off Moscow’s access to the Black Sea and raising
serious concerns among experts about escalating tensions in the region.The recent blockade is preventing
Russian naval vessels from traveling in the Black Sea to Syria.The
Russian Black Sea fleet has been a key component to Russian operations
in the war-torn country, primarily operating out of the Syrian port of
Tartus.Without access to the Turkish Straits, Russian attempts to
increase force projection in Syria or resupply the units in the country
will be extremely limited.
“This better be a joke — because if not, WW3 is about to start,”
quipped John Schindler, former NSA operative and national
security columnist at the Observer.

'Yauza', a logistics ship of the Russian Navy passes through the Dardanellesin front of a Turkish submarine on Nov. 30 (see video)

Schindler’s concern is certainly warranted.
The conflict between
Russia and Turkey adds fuel to the raging fire that is Syria.
As a NATO
member, Turkey is party to Article 5
of the NATO convention which considers an attack on any of the NATO
allies an attack on them all, including the United States.
NATO has
shown support for Turkey throughout the incident and the issue will
certainly be brought up as Turkish President Ahmet Davutoglu visits NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg today.

The blockade is the most recent
counter in the standoff between the Turkish and Russian governments that
was sparked by the downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber by Turkish forces last week.In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced
Saturday that Russia would begin sanctions against certain Turkish
exports as well as a halt to charter flights between the two countries.
Additionally, Russia armed its fighter aircraft
with air-to-air missiles for the first time Monday, giving them an
offensive capability against any future aggression by Turkish aircraft.
“The egos of Putin and Erdogan
may spin any future incident beyond control,” Boris Zilberman, a Russia
expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a D.C.-based think
tank, told Business Insider.

The Convention gives Turkey full control over the Straits and guarantees the free passage of civilian vessels in peacetime.

It restricts the passage of naval ships not belonging to Black Sea states.

The terms of the convention have been the source of controversy over the years, most notably concerning the Soviet Union's military access to the Mediterranean Sea.

As the only direct Russian access
point to the Mediterranean, the effects of the Turkish blockade pose
both economic and military concerns for Russia.Turkey is Russia’s
second largest trade partner, while the Turkish Straits (the Bosporus
and Dardanelles) are a primary shipping lane for Russian oil exports.Any potential deployment of Russian ground forces to Syria would be
significantly hampered by the blockade, along with the resupply of the
current Russian forces based in Syria.
The blockade is not the first instance of conflict between Russia and
Turkey over access to the Straits. In the early years after World War
II, Turkey was pressured by the then Soviet Union to allow unfettered
Soviet access to the Straits.
Tensions between the two countries
eventually led to Turkey joining NATO in 1952, thus giving the country
protection from the United States.
The access dispute has never been
formally settled.