In Nail-biter, Rowland Had Money, Message

News analysis

In choosing Republican John G. Rowland as their governor Tuesday, Connecticut voters may have proved that money and a conservative message form the bedrock of American politics, 1994-style.

Enough of them were able to overlook questions about his private life, his changing tune on abortion and the state income tax, and their own misgivings about his ability to repeal the tax.

Enough of them liked his anti-income-tax, anti-crime, anti-busing and anti-welfare-as-usual message.

And not even Rowland's efforts to suppress a police report about a domestic incident between him and his former wife could turn enough of them against him.

But no one should discount that Rowland won with barely more than a third of the vote. The opposition split between Democrat William E. Curry Jr. and Eunice S. Groark, the nominee of A Connecticut Party -- handing Rowland a victory plurality that settled in at 36 percent. Groark, Gov. Lowell P. Weicker Jr.'s lieutenant governor, carved into all of Curry's constituencies -- Democrats, women, liberals, Weicker-likers, people who want to see property taxes cut, and those who favor retaining the state income tax.

At the same time, the fourth major candidate, Tom Scott, a conservative former radio talk-show host who was expected to steal votes from Rowland, appeared to be little more than a footnote in a four-way race sure to go down in Connecticut's political history books in the chapter on ``nail-biters.''

Scott, a former state senator who gained attention in 1991 when he organized a huge anti-income-tax rally on the Capitol lawn, was not the champion of income tax foes Tuesday night. Of those who said the best tax system would include no income tax, Rowland won 57 percent, Scott only 15 percent.

Rowland ran strong among traditionally conservative voters -- people who voted for George Bush in 1992, gun owners and those who listen to talk radio.

And it appears Rowland may have benefited most from the strange dynamics of the four-way race.

For one thing, Rowland, the man with the most name recognition going into the race and the one with the greatest ability to plaster his message on TV screens across the state, may have proved that he who shouts loudest finishes first.

With a war chest of $4 million, Rowland raised twice as much money as Curry, four times as much as Groark and 40 times as much as Scott -- who until Tuesday boasted that he could spend only $100,000 and still win 30 percent of the vote. As the night progressed, it looked as though he would pick up close to 12 percent.

Rowland was the best known of the major contenders because in 1990 he lost a three-way race for governor to Weicker by about 2 percentage points. He consistently led in public opinion polls -- even toward the end, when his unfavorable ratings overtook his favorable ratings as a result of the controversy over the Middlebury police chief's refusal to release a report about a domestic dispute between Rowland and his former wife.

As the tug of war over the police report raged, Groark's candidacy caught fire. In the first Courant/Connecticut Poll, published in early October, Groark was favored by only 8 percent of state residents. By last Sunday, the latest Courant/Connecticut Poll showed Groark with 18 percent -- a surge of 10 percentage points in just one month.

She appeared to be gaining among Democrats, women and anti-Rowland independents, who seemed frustrated by Curry's inability to articulate a coherent message.

Meanwhile, Curry's campaign seemed stagnant. While the police-report flap appeared to chip away at Rowland's support among women, Curry's support among women -- registering at 36 percent in early exit polling -- was seemingly diluted by Groark, who was taking 23 percent of the women's vote. Rowland took 32 percent of women's votes, according to early exit polling.

Interestingly, 40 percent of married people said they supported Rowland -- more than Curry's 28 percent and Groark's 19 percent -- a possible indication that married people understand the friction that can develop between husbands and wives.

From the beginning, Curry was fighting to overcome a campaign that was underfinanced almost from the day he upset party-endorsed candidate John B. Larson in September to become the Democrats' nominee for governor. Curry, the state comptroller, won the primary with help from labor unions and other liberal groups.

He immediately tried to define himself as a moderate -- talking tough on crime and the death penalty, promising to cut property taxes and calling for more hard time for state prisoners.

But Rowland launched scalding attack ads early in the campaign that painted Curry as a tax-and-spend liberal in moderate's clothing.

Curry's bank account was so depleted that he virtually vanished after the primary, spending precious weeks sequestered in his office ``dialing for dollars,'' as campaign fund-raising is called in the trade.