India’s
summer monsoon, on which the entire country depends on for its food crops, will
become highly unpredictable if the world’s average temperature rises by two
degree Celsius in the next two-three decades, a scientific report commissioned
by the World Bank says.

The report
released in New Delhi on Wednesday evaluates at the likely impacts of warming
between two degree Celsius and four degree Celsius on agricultural production,
water resources, coastal ecosystems and cities across South Asia, sub-Saharan
Africa and South East Asia.

The river in its normal course and during the floods in June 2013

Coastal
cities like Kolkata and Mumbai are “potential impact hotspots” threatened by
extreme river floods, more intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels and
very high temperatures, the report ‘Turn down the heat: Climate extremes,
regional impacts and the case for resilience’ says.

Depicting
life in a not-too-distant future shaped by already present warming trends, the
new report warns that by the 2040s, India will see a significant reduction in
crop yields because of extreme heat.

“An extreme
wet monsoon that currently has a chance of occurring only once in 100 years is
projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the century,” the report says.

The warming
will impact significant reduction in crop yields and some 63 million people may
no longer be able to meet their caloric demand. Decreasing food availability
can also lead to significant health problems, it warns.

The report
also predicts substantial reduction in the flow of the Indus and the
Brahmaputra in late spring and summer. In the next 20 years, a several-fold
increase in the frequency of unusually hot and extreme summer months is
projected.

“The
scientists tell us that if the world warms by 2 degrees celsius — warming which
may be reached in 20 to 30 years — that will cause widespread food shortages,
unprecedented heat-waves, and more intense cyclones,” said World Bank Group
President Jim Yong Kim.

“In the
near-term, climate change, which is already unfolding, could batter the slums
even more and greatly harm the lives and the hopes of individuals and families
who have had little hand in raising the Earth’s temperature,” Kim said.

The report,
prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research and Climate Analytics, reveals that in South Asia, the potential
change in the regularity and impact of the all-important monsoon could
precipitate a major crisis in the region.

Across South
East Asia, rural livelihoods are faced with mounting pressures as sea levels
rise, tropical cyclones increase in intensity, and important marine ecosystem
services are lost as warming approaches 4 degrees Celsius.

The report
says sea level rise has been occurring more rapidly than previously projected
and a rise of as much as 50 cm by the 2050s may already be unavoidable as a
result of past emissions. In some cases, impacts could be felt much earlier.

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