Mar 25, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU…

…SYNOPSIS…
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. BY THURSDAY…WITH A BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC MOST PROMINENT. WITHIN THIS REGIME…THE REMNANTS OF AN INLAND ADVANCING LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR U.S…INCLUDING ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE THAT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY…BEFORE TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM NOW EVIDENT IN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE…IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST REGION BEFORE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND RETURN FLOW IS ABLE TO YIELD A SEASONABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR. BUT A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY DOES APPEAR TO EXIST FOR MODEST WARM SECTOR MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION…WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT…PRIMARILY FROM THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU…FROM MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

…LWR CNTRL PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU/MID MS VALLEY…
DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BY AROUND 18Z NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTAL LOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI…SOUTHWARD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA…PERHAPS NORTHEAST TEXAS. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION…EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…BUT AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD. AND TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION…BEFORE THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS THURSDAY EVENING.

…SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA…
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN FARTHER NORTH. BUT A DISTINCTLY SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT AND…PROBABLY…INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE MODERATE THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH…BUT SIZABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND AN UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND DEVELOPS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.