Friday, November 09, 2007

GW Shooter Bush Rolls Craps in Pakistan

I never had much respect for GW Bush's specious messianic foreign policy, riddled with nincompoop neocons and Israeli firsters; but for them to misplay their diplomatic cards on Pakistan has to be their biggest display of incompetence in what is already a sad trail of failure. About the only spark of sanity in this episode so far was the rushed statement by the Department of Defense that the Pakistani internal situation will not impair the war on terror. This statement was mandated to counterbalance Condoleezza's very public swooning over Musharraf's iron fist imposition of martial law. Her petulant threats to review military aid must have scared the hell out of the Pentagon that is still trying to capture bin Laden somewhere over the Pakistani rainbow.

You are going to have to ask GW Bush and Condoleezza why they pressed reforms on Musharraf that would loosen his political control on a country that borders on anarchy. If Musharraf and his army lose control, there appears to be no opposition that could govern; the members of the secular legal community that stands firmly against Musharraf, squabble endlessly among themselves. Poor Benazir Bhutto, who rushed back from Dubai as martial law was declared, better disguise herself as a man; otherwise she will be caught up in the Musharraf's dragnet of ex-cricket players turned politicians, squawking lawyers and judges... Currently she sits in her fortified home talking to Wolf Blitzer on CNN via video tape hookup.

Musharraf was never heart and soul against the Taliban and al Qaeda. It took about 11 billion dollars in military aid to put him in the US camp. Additionally Bush had to break a log jam by the Israeli lobby to release high tech military equipment to Pakistan. Musharraf was partial to the Taliban, because it fought the Northern Alliance that was an Indian client. Despite this background, Musharraf, eventually provided invaluable aid to the US in its war against terror. Over half the logistics for the Afghan war are funneled through Pakistan. The problem developed that from a US standpoint, it was not enough. Musharaff under tribal pressures within his army, Jihadist attacks on his troops, and opposition political parties on the streets of his cities, attempted to pacify certain areas along the Afghan border through truce agreements; and, it backfired. The US searched for more pro-American political elements in Pakistan that would take stronger action and picked the corrupt Benazir Bhutto. It mistakenly believed that forcing Bhutto and Musharraf into a power sharing arrangement was democracy, and this would be good for the US and the people of Pakistan. Instead it blew the country apart, as Pakistani judges would not certify the arrangements. Musharraf saw his power slipping – saw chaos as the alternative – so he reasserted his power with martial law.

People who know Musharraf characterize him as a moderate moslem. They all make the point that he is a Pakistani patriot and that he is not corrupt like the Bhutto clan who were skimming ten per cent off national contracts. Musharraf has made an effort to redistribute wealth to lower parts of the Pakistani society – he does not pay attention to constitutional law because he believes it does not work. At least the US knows what it has in Musharraf; that is better than an alternative pack of thieves who would have control of WMDs.

The US made two big errors that dashed Musharraf's trust: it undermined the Afghan war by shifting its main combat emphasis to Iraq thus limiting forces'; and put the Afghan command under a Katz and Jammers NATO Command. It further enraged Musharraf by supplying and augmenting India's nuclear fuel supplies for domestic use, thus permitting the Indians to make more nuclear weapons from their own uncontrolled, limited resources. So Musharraf made his own way, which upset the US. The US response, pathetically, was to force more democracy. Though Bush has not cut military aid, he wants Musharraf to proceed with an election and restore constitutional order so Bhutto can take power. He wants Musharraf to be President, but with no military power. If this would happen, Musharraf would be a dead duck. The Army will not support Lady Bhutto. The Jihadist would win as the Army stood aside, and that would be catastrophic for US interests. So what else is new with GWB and his neocon lightweights?

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About Me

Colonel Robert E Bartos Ret US Army-served as Military Attache to Moscow and Belgrade-Chief of Foreign Intelligence on Army Dept Army Staff-commanded battalion in Vietman-member of President Reagan's transition team-advisor to Strategic Arms Delegation in Geneva--now spends time between Washington, DC and the Caribbean