* News flash: As first reported by Bleacher Report”s Jason Cole, the Raiders have just signed erstwhile 49ers LB Aldon Smith to a one-year deal, which seems like much of a a Jack Del Rio (and old Al Davis) move than what we”ve seen from GM Reggie McKenzie and owner Mark Davis over the last few years. Smith is still subject to potential NFL suspension after his latest DUI arrest, so let”s see when he”s in a Raiders uniform before we start analyzing how he”ll do in Oakland.

But I do not believe the 49ers are too upset by this. He wasn”t going to play for them this season. They still love him, though, and I strongly believe Jed York and Trent Baalke want to try to re-sign him next offseason. Smith stays in the Bay Area, and let”s see if he can stay out of trouble.

Yes, Smith lining up on the other side of Khalil Mack into 2016 and beyond seems like a very significant proposition, but again, let”s see how this all evolves under Del Rio.

–I do not think the 49ers will have a horrible season. Let me say that, repeat that, and try to hammer that into fine digital permanance, right here and now.

I do not think the 49ers will be terrible in 2015. I think they have enough talent on the roster, enough gumption in the coaching staff, and enough pride throughout the organization to prevent a free fall to the bottom of the NFL.

But of course I”m a silly over-optimist about all things 49ers, as proven by…

* Last year I predicted they”d go 11-5 and… yeah, also win the Super Bowl. Oops. They actually finished 8-8 and did not make the playoffs and fired their coach.

OK then, what about 2015? I think there will be many good things happening for the 49ers; I also think they have too many holes to project them for anything more than a middling spot in the league; and if they have a few bad breaks, that could lead to some very trying times.Put it all together: I”ll predict a 7-9 record.Let”s break it all down…

First off, this is going to be a little quicker than my usual season-prediction pieces because this all got tied up in a schedule jam-up for me…And I”m writing a column for the paper that will cover a lot or some of this ground, also, and I don”t want to repeat myself beyond my normal tendencies.

So, let”s just say that I had a few general controlling themes that pointed me to the 7-win conclusion:

1) Last year, with all kinds of things blowing up during the season–many of them inflicted by 49ers management in order to set up the firing of Jim Harbaugh–the 49ers finished 8-8.

I am using 8-8 as a baseline of sorts for this team: With a lot of fraying talent, and Colin Kaepernick entering his theoretical prime years, and a harried but experienced coaching staff… the 49ers won some good games but also lost some crucial ones and got clobbered by superior teams (Seattle twice, Denver).

2) From the middle of last year–when things started to fall apart–to the start of this one, the 49ers have lost Harbaugh, Vic Fangio, Greg Roman (you can hiss if you want 49ers fans, but Roman is a very respected OC), Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Frank Gore, Mike Iupati, Anthony Davis, Chris Borland, Michael Crabtree, Andy Lee and Ray McDonald.

That”s a lot.

We don”t know if their designated replacements–from Jim Tomsula to Geep Chryst to Quinton Dial to Aaron Lynch to Whoever They”re Playing on the Right Side of the Offensive Line–are up to the job, and we know that the guys they lost were high performers during their 49ers days.

Maybe the new guys will approximate what the former guys used to do, maybe some of them will even exceed the 2011-2013 performance-levels.

You cannot expect that. You cannot just plug “2011-2013 performance levels” in for any of those guys. You couldn”t do it with the older guys, either, because it”s hard to sustain excellent over that period of time, obviously.

But 2011-2013 was a special period and if the 49ers think they can just click their fingers and re-produce it with several players who red-shirted the last season or two and a collection of coaches who were not exactly in high demand last offseason… well, I would say that”s expecting a lot.

3) The NFC West is not an easy division in which to regain your footing if you”ve fallen a bit.

Seattle remains a monster. Arizona was a double-digit-victory team last season, with Carson Palmer out for much of the season. St. Louis at some point might figure out how to play offense.

In the best of times, the 49ers had some hard-fought games with these teams and Seattle was always a brutal match-up.

Now? If the 49ers go 2-4 in the division this season (they went 2-4 last season), that”ll probably be a success, and if they go 2-4 in the division, it”ll be hard to get much better than 8-8 overall, just doing the math.

4) So much of this could swing to the good or the bad based on Colin Kaepernick”s play, which we”ve said a time or two in previous seasons, haven”t we?

But I generally believe we largely know what Kaepernick is going to do this season because we”ve seen it for the last three seasons:

-He can be great and win games with his legs and his arm;

-He can be terrible and lose games with erratic passing;

-He will mostly be in the middle, probably one of the top 15 QBs in the game but certainly several levels down from the top guys who control every game they play.

Kaepernick is 27 and will turn 28 in early November. He”s had several years of NFL experience, he”s tried running a lot, then staying in the pocket, and now it”s a little confusing how the 49ers intend to use him (in the pocket and ALSO running a lot?)… I”m not sure.

I think we”ll see pretty much the same guy, and he”ll go through hot streaks and cold streaks and a lot of it will be predicated by how much time he gets to throw.

You can”t write down 11 wins a year with Kaepernick as your QB and you can”t write down 11 losses either. He”s a tweener.

That isn”t terrible, but I”m not sure it”s worth $18M a year and that”s the part that Jed York and Trent Baalke will be analyzing every week this season.

5) The offensive line could blow up this offense and that would blow up this season for the 49ers.

Let”s not get into the details of the preseason woes, but obviously the 49ers don”t look like they”re going to play at the same level they established in 2011 and carried through the start of last season… before it all began to crumble.

Obviously Baalke and Tomsula want to run the ball. Obviously they need a power offensive line to do that. Obviously if they can”t run the ball, Kaepernick is going to have to throw it more than they want, and the offensive line will have to pass block probably more than it should.

Controlling the ball keeps the defense fresh and the 49ers have talent on defense but it probably will not hold up if the offense can”t keep things rolling and teeing up the defense for quick, long-field series.

Carlos Hyde needs holes. The passing game–and the deep balls to Torrey Smith and Vernon Davis–needs the threat of a running game. That”s all on the offensive line.

OK, let”s run through how this season might go…

* Difficult early season: I think the 49ers can beat Minnesota on Monday night–and it had better. The trip to Pittsburgh is going to be rough (Steelers on a long week after playing last night), and then the turn-around to Arizona will not be fun for Jim Tomsula”s team.

After that, they get Green Bay at Levi”s and then a trip to New York to face the Giants. If the 49ers get through this patch at 2-3, it”d be a major success. More likely they”ll be 1-4.

Tomsula will be tested during this stretch. Not necessarily as an X-and-O guy, because even the best strategic wizard would have a tough time in these games.

Tomsula”s control of that locker room will be tested; and what if there leaks from management right about now?

What if national reporters start speculating about Kaepernick”s future? How does Tomsula deal with all this? We shall see. I think he”ll do OK, though.

* Next four before the bye aren”t easy, either: Baltimore at home, Seattle at home on a Thursday night, at St. Louis and then maybe the first home semi-easy one vs. Atlanta. 2-2 in this period would be very good and I”ll give it to them.

At this point, that brings my theoretical 49ers record to 3-6 to the mid-November bye.

* The big final push: This is where the depth of this team–or any team–will be tested. You get those games on the road vs. physical teams, you tend to break down. The best teams have back-ups and third-teamers who can step in. Do the 49ers?

They start the last bunch of games by going to Seattle, of course not an easy one. Then home vs. Arizona, at Chicago, at Cleveland… and I”ll give the 49ers 2-2 in this run.

The closing kick is Cincinnati at home, at Detroit and then St. Louis at Levi”s, and I”ll be nice and say 2-1 to the finish line for the 49ers.