POLL: Differing Views on Iraq and Afghanistan Wars

July 21, 2009

ANALYSIS By PEYTON M. CRAIGHILL

Americans increasingly see progress in Iraq yet by a wide margin continue to say the war there was not worth fighting – a sharp contrast to Afghanistan, where views of progress are far more subdued but support for the U.S.-led war is higher, albeit not high.

Sixty-one percent say the United States is making significant progress restoring civil order in Iraq, whose prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, visits the White House today. That's the highest in polls the past five years, and up 21 points since spring 2008.

Yet views on the Iraq war's justification are as sour as ever: Sixty-two percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say it was not worth fighting. Majorities have held that view steadily for more than four and a half years – disapproval that pushed then-President George W. Bush into deep and long-lasting unpopularity.

Fifty-one percent, moreover, feel "strongly" that the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, vs. 21 percent who strongly feel the opposite. That negative intensity, too, is long-lived.

With combat roles for U.S. troops in Iraq winding down, al-Maliki visits Washington to pay respects to U.S. soldiers and meet with President Obama to seek U.S. investment in Iraq and discuss political reconciliation among Iraq's sectarian and ethnic groups. That may not be easy: An ABC/BBC/NHK poll in Iraq earlier this year found continued sharp ethnosectarian differences in the country, albeit leavened by sharply improved security, greater public optimism and broader support for democracy.

AFGHANISTAN – While Americans by nearly 2-1 say the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, the war in Afghanistan continues to draw more of a split decision: Fifty-one percent say the war there has been worth the costs, vs. 45 percent who say not.

Challenges in Afghanistan

Support has slipped by 5 points since spring, perhaps in response to rising casualties; July has been the deadliest month for U.S. forces in Afghanistan since the war there began nearly eight years ago, with 31 reported killed as of Tuesday.

Support for the war in Afghanistan has hovered between 50 and 56 percent in recent years. U.S. casualties there have been far lower than in Iraq, and the al Qaeda/Taliban link made justification for the Afghanistan war less contentious.

But views on Afghanistan are somewhat conflicted. Sixty-two percent approve of the way Obama is handling the situation there, even though he's continuing to prosecute a war that fewer, 51 percent, see as worth fighting, and in which just 46 percent see significant progress. The level of casualties and extent of perceived progress in Afghanistan likely will influence public assessments moving ahead.

Challenges there are extensive; an ABC/BBC/ARD poll in Afghanistan in January found sharply lower ratings for the Kabul government and its Western allies alike, with broad complaints about civilian casualties, insecurity, lack of development and corruption.