Will protests herald a new era in Iraqi politics?

The defining feature of the protests in
Baghdad which started on October 1 and spread to other cities in southern Iraq
is that they were neither led nor called for by a religious authority (also
known as the marja’iya) or another
leader. When the first wave of protests began in multiple cities, the protesters’
message was clear: they did not accept any religious or political leadership
over their movement.
The spontaneous actions of ordinary people who are not driven by sectarian
mindsets and are occupying the streets of Baghdad, Nasiriyah, Diwaniyah,
Karbala, and other cities sent a pointed message to the politicians and ruling
elites that street politics will be used to try to trigger a change.

Corruption is the primary grievance

The first
wave of protests in early October might have been provoked by the removal of a popular general from his post. However,
the root causes go much deeper. In reality, people are protesting against the
lack of basic services like electricity, clean water, good roads, health care,
unemployment benefits and, above all, the corrupt political elite. The perseverance
of protesters, even in the face of violence, underscores the resentment of
Iraq’s youth towards this elite and its botched and divisive politics.

Corruption
is what has really driven people to take to the streets. Institutionalized corruption
is rampant in the country; it does not just occur in individual cases. This
pervasive corruption has devoured the country’s resources and amounts to around
$320 billion stolen since the birth of the new Iraqi
state in 2003. The majority of this money has been taken by ministries and
civil services that are dominated by powerful political parties. Phantom projects
and contracts are a cover to divert the funds into individual pockets and
spread patronage.

Knowing
this is how their political institutions are run, protesters have every reason
to believe that in this kleptocratic state, a revolution is necessary to bring
change to the system. This belief also drove the recent protests in Lebanon,
which have resulted in the resignation of the Lebanese prime minister.

In Iraq, protesters’
demands first focused on jobs, public services, and a decent standard of living,
but later turned to the overthrow of the government. The renewal of the
protests on October 25 after a short hiatus confirms the people’s demand for
change. The burning down of political party headquarters in many cities represents
the population’s disillusionment with and anger towards these parties, which
control the government and are deeply immersed in corruption.

The
corruption in Iraq is perpetuated by the powerful political parties which have
their own armed forces and access to the national budget. They control the
government and act as a state within a state. This has led to the emergence of
the phenomenon of the deep state for the first time in Iraq. The deep state
that exists in Iraq is the religious and political authorities that exert
influence on the political process, but are not necessarily part of the
government. One example of this phenomenon is the Popular Mobilization Forces
(PMF), a collection of militias which gained influence as a result of fighting
against the Islamic State (ISIS). They have been financed and armed by the
Iraqi national budget and some are supported by Iran.

The stratum
of Iraqi society that has suffered most is the youth, many of whom are now involved
in the current protests. They know very well that their country sits on the fifth largest oil reserves and had a budget of $111.8 billion this year. Nevertheless, in
2018 around 16.5 percent of the country’s youth was unemployed and around 22.5 percent of the
population was living in poverty in 2014.

What the future holds

Interestingly,
the Iraqi national security advisor and head of the PMF, Faleh al-Fayyadh, has expressed
the PMF’s support for the Iraqi government and has implicitly
denounced the protesters, a move that could be seen as protecting the Prime
Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s government from falling apart. Meanwhile, protesters
have blamed the security services and militias for the deaths of more than 250
protesters and thousands wounded since the demonstrations’ start in early
October.

This
alludes to an inter-Shia rift as the influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has called
on the government to resign and has expressed his support for the protests. He
first refrained from calling for his supporters to join the protesters because
of the demonstrators’ rejection of any external leadership over their uprising.
However, when Ayatollah Sistani—whose intervention is crucial as the highest
religious authority in the country—warned the government to meet the protesters’
demands, al-Sadr followed suit and called on his supporters to join the
demonstrations that began on October 25.

The current
government’s and parliament’s response to the demands of the protesters has focused
on reshuffling posts and promising jobs for the unemployed youth. This move
would further burden the already inflated public sector employment as about 75 percent of the state budget goes to payroll for
government employees and buying political loyalty. Successive governments since
2003 have never made it their priority to address this institutionalized
corruption and nepotism.

The very
foundation of the new post-Ba’ath Iraqi state is based on the muhasasa
or apportionment system. This system should be a way to give equal recognition
to all ethnicities/nationalities, religions, languages, and cultures to ensure
the inclusion of all groups in a federal framework. However, this system has
never been successful in Iraq and has instead perpetuated sectarian politics.

MENASource, a project of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, follows movements across the region and provides a platform for Middle Eastern perspectives and analysis, among others, on major issues—economic, political, security, cultural—that are at stake in the post-Arab Spring era.

Now, especially
after the territorial defeat of ISIS, ordinary people in Shia-majority cities
will no longer be deterred by the politics of fear. In the past, leaders used
the politics of fear to promote existential sectarian threats to create
societal schisms. The July 2018 protests in Basra were an initial blow to the
Iraqi politicians and war lords who attempted to harness the politics of fear
to their advantage. People in the Shia heartland—the oil-rich city of Basra—protested
last year about the lack of public services such as clean water and demanded a
decent living standard.

The ongoing
protests in Baghdad and other cities are a reaffirmation of these longstanding demands.
They are demands for a better life that is not based on cronyism. They are also
a call for a political system that is based on the democratic inclusion of all
the country’s components and an end to the kleptocracy that plunders Iraq’s
revenues for the benefit of the elite and leaves the rest of the people to live
below the poverty line.

The deadly force
used against the protesters seems to be a desperate attempt by the ruling
political elites to bring the protests to an end. However, even if they are
successful in doing so, the political and economic situation in Iraq is a
pressure cooker that could explode at any time. Having said that, even with the
promised resignation of Abdul-Mahdi’s government which can be seen as a win for
the protesters, it is important that these protests eventually become a social
movement that is focused on changing the system and not merely the government.

Dr. Dara Salam is a Teaching Fellow in the Department of Politics and International Studies at SOAS University of London. Follow him @Dara_Salam

Further Reading

Atlantic Council experts react to the announcement of the Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi resigning. Abbas Kadhim is the Director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council. “In his address to the Iraqi people on October 31, President Barham Salih referred to Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s offer to resign if the two major parliamentary blocs […]

The sudden outbreak of protests in Iraq on October 1 was part of a pattern the country has witnessed in recent years. Understanding this context as well as the grievances driving the protestors helps explain the latest unrest. As it stands now, Iraq is in precarious moment in which bold, concrete action from the government […]

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