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The Crosshairs Trader

April 19, 2011

David Nassar, in his book RULES OF THE TRADE, provides readers with a list of solid trading rules. Here they are:

1. Average Winners Not Losers. It is not "don't frown, average down"; it is applying the discipline to cut losers short and adding to winners that separates the successful from the unsuccessful. If you have a winning stock then add to it. If you have a losing stock then get rid of it.

2. Never Let a Winner Turn Into A Loser. Greed is the cause of this mistake. Let the market tell you when to exit a trade, not whether you have a profit or not. "If your trade is acting well, as defined by key indicators, and the market activity is supporting your position, stay in. If not, its go time!" Do not let a good profit vanish into thin air because you want more than the market is willing to give.

3. Never Mix Disciplines. If you day trade then day trade and do not let a day trade turn into a swing trade. If you swing trade do not let your swing trade turn into an investment. Follow the rules based on the discipline of your time frame.

4. Never Try To Trade Back A loser. In other words, each trade is a new one and should not be used to win back money lost in the last trade. Always trade in the present not in the past where too many emotional and psychology factors can affect the current trade. Revenge does not pay in or out of the market.

March 30, 2011

Dr Doug Hirschhorn has published a great read on peak performance entitled 8 Ways to Great. I suggest you read it. In the meantime, here are the "8 Ways":

First Principle: Find Your “Why?”

“The reason most people go through life with big dreams but fail to achieve them is because they ask themselves “how” before they know their “why”(9).

Second Principle: Get To Know Yourself

“The perfect trader-if such a person exists-is methodical and careful about making decisions, extremely disciplined, resilient to setbacks, with a high degree of internal confidence. He holds strong opinions but is also able to admit quickly when he is wrong, not take it personally, and view it as a learning opportunity rather than a failure. He understands the value of leaving his ego at the door. He’s willing and able to trust his gut and place big bets when the opportunity presents itself. In fact, that pretty well describes the ideal blend of characteristics of any successful person, no matter what he is doing professionally or personally” (18-19).

Third Principle: Learn To Love The Process

“The best traders don’t think about how many millions they need to make each year. They focus on making the best trading decision they can with each trade they make. And if there isn’t a good trading opportunity right now, they have the discipline to do nothing and just wait. Concentrating on one trade at a time is their process” (38).

Fourth Principle: Sharpen Your Edge

“Gaining a competitive advantage is like having a two-edged sword, and you need to keep both of them sharp. On edge is internal-knowing what unique skills you bring to the table. The other is external and comes from gathering knowledge that makes it more likely you’ll succeed” (45).

Fifth Principle: Be All That You Can Be

“The takeaway lesson for everyone wanting to optimize their own performance without regard for what others are doing is fourfold: 1) know your edge; 2) act only when you have the edge; 3) avoid taking the outcome personally because it involves factors that are beyond your control; 4) measure your success in terms of how well you performed and not only the outcome” (70).

Sixth Principle: Keep Your Cool

“Deciding when to cut your losses is one of the toughest decisions for anyone to make, but traders at the top of their game know that they always have to make the decisions they need to make, which may or may not be the ones they want to make” (77).

Seventh Principle: Get Comfortable With Being Uncomfortable

“In the trading world, you will either make money or lose money on any given trade. All that matters in the end is making more money when you’re right than you lose when you’re wrong. Knowing this, traders have learned to accept failure as part of the game, but they also use the information they acquire from their mistakes as a learning tool. Frequently, what they learn from losing money is more valuable than what they learn when they make money” (90).

Eighth Principle: Make Yourself Accountable

“Commitment, perseverance, and discipline are the characteristics that move people beyond desire to action, that differentiate mediocrity from greatness, and that separate greatness from superstardom” (95).

And to sum up: “True success begins with a state of mind. But it takes specific actions and behaviors to move from intentions into action and get results” (2)

March 22, 2011

In a recent article, James Montier lists several principles that have always guided sensible investing. Let's take a look.

1. Always Insist on a Margin of Safety. Keep in mind that no asset class or stock sector or particular commodity is free from risk. Always think safety first, being right second. Your thesis may be correct on paper but you can go broke along the way.

2. This Time Is Never Different. The four most dangerous words in investing is "this time is different" because these words set up false expectations. A new era does not mean the era is different in principle. It may simply be a wolf in different clothing.

3. Be Patient And Wait For your Trade. Many investors suffer from "action bias" or a desire to do something. However, when there is nothing to do the best thing to do is nothing.

4. Be Contrarian. The herd is usually wrong. The punch bowl of speculation is usually spiked with denial. Be careful getting in when the getting is at the end.

5. Risk Is Permanent Loss of Capital, Never A Number. Pay attention to valuation, fundamental, and financial risks and thus avoid permanent impairment of your capital.

6. Be Leery of Leverage. Leverage is a dangerous beast. It can't turn a bad investment good, but it can turn a good investment bad. Whenever you see a financial product with leverage as its foundation you should be skeptical, not delighted.

7. Never Invest In Something You Don't Understand. If something sounds too good to be true it probably is. If you do not understand where your money is going then don't press the pedal 'cause the vehicle may be in reverse.

Invest when the law is on your side; otherwise you may find yourself on the other side of the barbed wire fence at BROKE prison.

If you would like to read the article in its entirety you may go HERE.

March 16, 2011

A word of explanation here before we go any further. When I speak of stock trading intuition I am not referring to the phenomenon of knowing what is about to happen, such as having an intuition that the plane you are about to board is going to crash.

What I am referring to here is coup d’oeil, a French word which means “a quick look or glance.” In the military, brilliant generals are said to possess coup d’oeil or “the power of the glance; the ability to immediately see and make sense of the battlefield.” Carl von Clausewitz, the 19th Century military philosopher, wrote in his treatise ON WAR, that coup d’oeil is the military leader’s ability to recognize the precise moment of truth in battle “that the mind would ordinarily miss or would perceive only after long study and reflection” (102).

In trading, you do not have a long time to study and reflect on a trade. If you do, you will miss it! Your rules are your “study” and the historical analysis of your high probability trading pattern is your “reflection”. In other words, successful traders are extraordinary because they do not miss the obvious. Successful traders can look at their charts and immediately know whether or not there is a trade. Successful traders possess coup d’oeil.

What are the key attributes of someone who possesses coup d’oeil? Better yet, if you do not have it how long does it take to claim it? I am a visual person-that is why I trade with candlestick charts-so let’s put my idea into an illustration and then we can go from there.

Much like a military leader who has to make very important decisions in the heat of the battle, stock traders have to make financial decisions in the ever changing landscape of the market. These decisions require the following characteristics of coup d’oeil.

1. DETERMINATION: Clausewitz defines determination as an interaction among three qualities: ambition, motivation, and commitment. These ingredients allow the trader to apply discipline to his or her trading methodology. If you lack discipline it may be because you have not made an ambitious, motivated commitment to do so. Discipline is a direct result of your willingness to succeed and allows the trader to go from having a good set of rules to actually following them.

2. INQUISITIVENESS: Just another word for curiosity and is the ever-present desire for information and understanding. Unfortunately this characteristic can easily turn into analysis paralysis, wherein the sheer quantity of information overwhelms the decision making process itself. The solution is to remain focused on a very small segment of the market and is at the very heart of successful trading. There is just too much information out there to ever be able to make sense of it all. Instead, the idea should be to direct your energy toward your trading methodology and not stray when tempted to.

3. COMPREHENSION: This is the trader’s ability to attend to the smallest details of his or her trading plan. I believe a trader must have rules for entering and exiting a trade before the trade is made. In the beginning these rules can be in the form of a checklist wherein before each trade all the details of your rules are checked and verified. With time, the rules become such as a part of your psyche that the checklist is in your head and can be confirmed with quick precision. The key is to never change the rules. When the rules stay the same your mind will not be able to play tricks on you.

4. QUIET CALM: Much like patience, the successful trader exhibits a simple, unexcitable mood in the face of a market that is in a constant state of flux. There is no way you can have emotionless trading. It is impossible unless you turn into a robot. What is possible is to bring your emotions under control. While others panic, cry, throw temper tantrums (and their computer monitors), doubt their trading edge, etc. you remain calm in the knowledge of your simple rules based methodology. You know when to enter battle, you know how long you can stay in battle, how many resources you can commit to battle ($), and when to exit the battlefield.

When the trader combines all of these he or she possesses coup d’oeil and with a clear mind be able to assess the battlefield and form an overall vision, possess a high tolerance for uncertainty knowing anything can happen once battle begins, and then have the ability to reverse course or exit the battlefield if conditions change.

How long does it take to possess coup d’oeil, or the ability to make a quick, accurate assessment of the battlefield? The answer depends on how soon you are willing to put the above into practice. The first step, and the hardest one, is your willingness to do so.

The sands of history are littered with wrecks of finely conceived plans that expired for want of cool calculation. B.H. Lidell Hart

March 11, 2011

TriggerPoint catches a early morning Spring as depticted by the green crosshair indicator, that confirmed on the Euro Currency Future at a low of 1.3733 at 4:00am! We see evidence of this in both the 15 min chart and the 60 min charts below. A high of 1.3777 was reached before a reaction test back toward the low at 1.3741 at 7:00am, however, lows did not hold because buying strength came back in as shown in both the total volume and price action with the bar closing near the high. Upside follow thru happened on the next bar, again on both price and increased volume, which is also shown by the change in trend color from Red (strong downtrend bars) to Brown (Neutral bars) and then to Green (strong uptrend bars). Join us at our Weekly Free Webinar to understand and learn more!

March 8, 2011

All beginning traders lack one key ingredient for success: experience. Experience is simply exposure to a particular activity over an extended period of time. Good judgment is a by-product of experience and is necessary for success in all areas of life, from driving, cooking, golf, to surgery, etc, as well as, you guessed it, stock and options trading. We can sum it up as follows:

EXPERIENCE = TIME + SPECIFIC ACTIVITY = GOOD JUDGMENT

Unfortunately, very few beginning traders have enough “education” money to succeed at trading because good judgment requires that a person remain focused on a specific activity long enough to draw sound conclusions. In other words, good judgment is based on trust in the specific activity without doubting its overall effectiveness.

A very good example is riding a bike. Once you learn to ride, you do not have to relearn to ride again as your judgment takes over and you trust yourself to balance, steer, brake, etc. without having to really think about doing it. The activity itself becomes automatic. Same with driving a car. After a while, you do not have to think about braking, looking in your mirrors, utilizing turn signals, etc. Driving a car becomes automatic. Good judgment becomes automatic.

Beginning traders usually lack sound judgment because 1) they do not focus on a specific activity; 2) they do not focus on an activity for an extended period of time (and I do not mean a few days); and 3) they do not trust themselves enough to arrive at a good, sound conclusion about their trading method since the test period is inadequate.

So, how long does it take for a trader to become successful enough to practice sound judgment?

DEPENDS ON WHETHER OR NOT YOU WANT TO DRIVE A CAR OR FLY A 747

There is much debate over how long it takes for a trader to move from the “newbie” level to the “professional” level (by which I mean moving from losing money to making money on a consistent basis). The answer really depends on the initial approach: do you want to learn to fly a 747 or would driving a car do? In other words, would you want your education to take an extended period of time (and money) as you try to learn everything there is to learn about the Market (impossible) or would you prefer the simple approach? Remember: good judgment is based on a specific activity over an extended period of time. You can control the experience (=time) by focusing on a specific activity. By focusing on a specific activity you can shorten the learning curve. It is completely up to you.

My one idea for shortening the learning curve? Keep it simple right from the start with a set of simple rules for entering and exiting (at a profit AND loss) the market. Period! This is much like the trading experiment from the early 1980s known as the Turtle Experiment as outlined in Curtis Faith's book Way of the Turtle. I won’t go through the details here but suffice it to say that this experiment took a few people with a specific set of rules and made traders out of them (and a lot of money!).

The best part: the training only took a few weeks! Why? Because the Turtle Trading System focused on a specific set of rules (activity) over an extended period of time and provided the traders the self trust to make sound judgments! Once achieved the trading became automatic.

The rules have been recently published for anyone to see and you can download them here: ORIGINAL TURTLES.

“I have found that the quickest way to move from point A to point B is to make sure that C through Z do not get in the way.”

March 2, 2011

Dennis Gartman's stock trading rules have been around for quite some time. They are classic and should be read and re-read often. Let's take a look at them now shall we?

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position! Ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin! 2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand. 3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital. 4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is too low. Nor can we know what price is too high. Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed cheap many times along the way. 5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many. 6. Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe. 7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds as they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones. 8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect gaps in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important. 9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In good times even errors are profitable; in bad times even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it. 10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market’s technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade. 11. Respect outside reversals after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more weekly and monthly, reversals. 12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. 13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not. 14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights. 15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first addition should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements. 16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements. 17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are right only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large. 18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom and the ignorance of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market’s wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we’ve learned much indeed. 19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold. 20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don’t; and if it is easy to buy, don’t. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidlmayer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then. 21. There is never one cockroach! This is the winning new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell. 22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!

Gartman pretty much covers all the rules. It is up to us to heed the advice.

February 15, 2011

One of the trader’s biggest psychological barriers to overcome is over trading. Of course, over trading is relative depending on the type of trader you are and the time frame(s) used to make trading decisions. However, if you have a well formulated trading plan, you will know from past experience when you are walking the line between planned trading and over trading.

Here are some of the symptoms of over trading:

1. not sticking to a plan or system

2. taking trades for no clear reason

3. taking on larger than normal positions

4. second guessing your system

5. jumping the gun (entering a trade in anticipation of an affirmative signal/pattern)

6. obligatory trading (if I am not in a trade, then I am not working)

The underlying cause of over trading is purely a lack of confidence either in yourself and/or your system. If you truly believe that your trading strategy provides X number of high probability set-ups over X number of days, then why would you waste your energy (and capital) taking high risk, low probability trades? The answer: lack of confidence. The solution: think and train like a sniper.

According to the dictionary a sniper is a skilled military shooter detailed to spot and pick off enemy soldiers from a concealed place using long-range small arms. The word originates from the snipe, a game bird difficult for hunters to sneak up on.

Looking at just the statistics, more is not necessarily better when seeking to kill an enemy soldier on the battlefield. Here are the stats when looking at the ratio of bullets fired to enemies killed in several major wars:

WARBULLETS FIRED TO KILL ONE ENEMY SOLDIER

WWII 25,000 TO 1

KOREA 50,000 TO 1

VIETNAM 200,000 TO 1

And the sniper’s stats: 1.3 bullets to kill an enemy soldier!

Charles Sasser, in his book ONE SHOT-ONE KILL, says of the sniper: “In stalking the enemy like big game hunters, these marksmen live out the philosophy that one accurate shot, one bullet costing a few cents, fired with deliberate surgical precision is more deadly and more effective against an enemy than a one thousand-pound bomb dropped indiscriminately” (2).

Let’s contrast, then, the symptoms of over trading as described above and the discipline of the sniper. According to the Sniper Training Field Manual No. 23-10, successful sniping is based on:

Due to his detailed training for a specific task, the sniper is confident in his ability to perform his sole duty: to kill the enemy with one bullet under stressful conditions over and over again. Building confidence, then, is a product of consistent behavior and sustained success.

In like fashion the trader builds confidence by staying focused on a highly accurate, rules based methodology via repetition. This methodology has proven to be highly successful when followed with a high degree of perfection, thereby, ensuring maximum return with minimum risks.

In other words, follow strict rules that provide a high probability of success and in so doing you will have the confidence to carry out your plan under various market conditions. The result will be a rising equity curve.

February 8, 2011

Let’s face it, if you are fairly new to trading your initial exposure to technical analysis will, if nothing else, make you feel like an idiot.

Nothing surprising, though, as learning technical analysis is no different than learning any other skill. It takes time, patience, dedication, and a willingness to accept humble pie as part of your diet. Obviously, with the internet, there is a proliferation of information on technical analysis now available to go along with the hundreds, maybe even thousands, of books on the subject. I’ve been trading for years and I still feel like an idiot, so when I am asked what book would be best suited to the beginner I am usually at a loss. However, I did recently find a book that may just fit the bill.

Jan Arps has been using and developing his own award winning technical analysis tools for more than 40 years so his knowledge of technical analysis deserves attention and respect. Who better, then, to ask to write The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Technical Analysis (Alpha Books, 2010). I recently had the pleasure of meeting Mr Arps at his home and I find him to be a wealth of information as well as a reminder of my idiot status. He offered me his book and I decided to give my humbled opinion, for what it is worth.

The outline of the book is very simple and well designed, consisting of four parts: Introduction to Technical Analysis, Tools For Technical Analysis, Time to Trade, and Trading Mechanics. There is a wealth of information here so let’s look at a few nuggets.

INTRODUCTION TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Arps does a good job of explaining the purpose of technical analysis as a way to “help you anticipate potential changes in the direction of market prices resulting from crowd behavior driven by the emotions of greed and fear” and not as a “business of absolute predictions.” All too often the new trader considers technical analysis to be the answer to predicting future price action; Arps tempers this expectation with a good analogy: “Like weather forecasting, technical analysis doesn’t result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is “likely” to happen to prices over time.” After laying the foundation Arps begins to build a firm structure by covering topics that include market structure, charting, and various swing patterns.

February 1, 2011

Jason Jankovsky, in The Art of the Trade, gives us four basics on doing real technical analysis. Jankovsky says "that the true trader, the consistent winner, is not concerned with any price or where prices started from. He or she is concerned with what it takes for people to believe strong enough, and with enough commitment, that they will place their capital at risk." So, with that in mind, the four basics:

1. A price chart is simply "a pictorial representation of the sum total of all the market's belief structures." No matter what we believe the chart does not lie.

2. "Because every potential trader in every market is seeing it differently, every printed price will mean something different to everyone." Our entry may be someone else's opportunity to exit and vice versa. We should always remember this the next time we believe we have a sure thing.

3. Prices eventually have to stop their forward progress, in either direction. "When every potential trader has executed for an entry, in any time frame, the market is vulnerable. When no one is doing anything, and what's been done is done, prices must stop."

4. No matter what indicator we use "every technical indicator designed is based solely on combining or dividing prices in some way." Volume and open interest, however, "chronicles the true state of what is happening inside the minds of the market participants."

As I always say and as other believe, trading is not difficult, it is the trader who makes it so. Jankovsky confirms what we already know.

January 25, 2011

Let's not argue whether trading is, by its very nature, gambling. Let's save that for another day. Instead, let's focus on the gambler who happens to trade and the possible ramifications of such behavior.

1) The Gambler Trades Through Earnings Reports: If you are a trader (as opposed to an investor) and decide to hold a stock/option position through earnings you are gambling. Due to the very nature of earnings reports your position could gap down or up; therefore, you are choosing to take a big chance (e.g., gamble) on what that stock will do post earnings. Sure, you could get lucky and win big, but you could also lose big. Long term success in the stock market is not about luck, but about skill. There will always be another trade on another day. Think before you trade making sure the odds (i.e. the probabilities) are with you, not against you.

2) The Gambler Trades Without A Plan: If you make your trading decisions based on the morning news, on the latest CNBC story, on a new strategy not yet tested, or on a market that you have never traded, then you are gambling. The successful trader has an army of stocks to trade, the weapons suited for that army, and a time tested trading strategy in place before a position is considered. When everything is going according to plan then and only then will it be time to pull the trigger.

3) The Gambler Goes ALL IN and Risks Losing It All: If you trade ALL IN, believing your trading edge is 100% foolproof, then you are a gambler. There is no sure thing in the stock market. There are just too many variables and too many traders who can and will disagree with your perfect signal. The disciplined trader trades a small percentage of his account balance and believes in probabilities, not a sure thing, knowing that trading is not about being right but about making money.

It is best to leave gambling to the casinos where the house has the advantage. In trading, the trader who has the focus, patience, and discipline to follow a strategy will have the advantage over those who don't every time. We trade the trader, not the market and when we make money it is usually when we trade against the gambling trader.

January 11, 2011

In Charting the Stock Market: The Wyckoff Method, editor Jack Hutson has put together several articles derived from the pages of the magazine Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. Mr Hutson, and the other contributors, are longtime students of the Wyckoff Method of trading, a trading method that focuses on the motions of the market and the psychology behind these motions. In one of these articles, entitled Market Strategy, Hutson lists common errors that traders should become aware of if they regularly troubleshoot their performance. Here they are:

1. Making trades with insufficient study and practice.

2. Making trades out of harmony with the general trend.

3. Taking a position too late after a move is well under way or is completed.

4. Taking a position too soon due to impatience.

5. Improperly estimating the distance a stock should move.

6. Letting eagerness to make profits warp judgment.

7. Failing to keep a position sheet and selecting stocks on hunches rather than calculations.

8. Buying on bulges instead of waiting on reactions.

9. Failing to place and move stops.

10. Listening to advice from brokers, advisors, friends, or newsletters.

Troubleshooting does not imply that there is something inherently wrong with our trading system, quite the contrary. Troubleshooting allows us to manage our emotions, helping us become better traders, more in tune with the markets and with ourselves.

January 4, 2011

To tell a fib is a nice way of saying that you are not telling the truth. A trader really can't lie to his broker or the market but a trader can lie to himself, which is even worse. Mark Whistler, in his book Trade With Passion and Purpose, lists a few of the many fibs traders tell themselves. See if you recognize any of them:

1. The losing position wasn't my fault, the market moved against me.

2. The trade was right and the market wrong.

3. I just have bad luck.

4. Eventually the stock will go up (or down)...eventually.

5. Bigger size equals bigger profits.

6. No need to close the postion just yet. I can average down.

7. Because I made so much money on the last trade I can take on more risk the next.

8. If the market is going down I can't make any money.

9. I need to trade a larger account in order to be a better trader.

10. I've had many winners in a row, so now I need a big loser.

Any of these resonate with you? I am sure there are others but there is not enough room here to elaborate. Besides, I need to get back in the market. It can't move without me!

December 21, 2010

I would hazard to guess that most all, if not all, professional traders believe that successful trading boils down to having and following a very simple set of rules. For, you see, trading is not difficult, it is the trader who makes it so.

Here is a very short list of comments from very reliable sources—successful professional traders.

John F. Carter: “It is important to remember that there is no need to spend wasted years looking for complicated setups or the next Holy Grail. There are very simple setups out there to use. Some of the best traders I know have been trading the same setup, on the same time frame, on the same market for 20 years. They don’t care about anything else, and they don’t want to learn about anything else. This works for them, and they are the masters of this setup. They have nothing else coming in to interfere with their focus” (p. 31,Mastering the Trade: Proven Techniques for Profiting from Intraday and Swing Trading Setups).

Clifford Bennett: “While there have been some spectacular front-cover traders, the ones who amass fortunes year after year tend to stay in the background. At the very least, they display a simple and down-to-earth approach to markets if they are ever interviewed” (p. 117, Warrior Trading: Inside the Mind of an Elite Currency Trader).

Mark Douglas: “What you want to do is become an expert at just one particular type of behavior pattern that repeats itself with some degree of frequency. To become an expert, choose one simple trading system that identifies a pattern, preferably one that is mechanical, instead of mathematical, so that you will be working with a visual representation of market behavior. Your objective is to understand completely every aspect of the system-all the relationships between the components-and its potential to produce profitable trades. In the meantime, it is important to avoid all other possibilities and information” (pp. 208-09, The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes).

Marcel Link: “Systems should be kept as simple as possible. Overdoing things doesn’t make a system better; on the contrary, it can take away from a good system. Trying to make a system too complicated with too many indicators and variables is a common mistake with some traders: some of the best systems are the simplest. As a rule of thumb, a system should fit on the back of an envelope and be easily explained so that someone can understand what every indicator does and every rule does. Otherwise it’s too complicated. Always remember the old adage ‘Keep it simple, stupid’ and you’ll be okay” (p 249, High Probability Trading).

George Angell: “One observation I’ve made over the years, which is especially notable on the trading floor, is that everyone who truly succeeds is a specialist. Unlike the novice trader, who may dabble in as many as a dozen different futures contracts, the professional floor trader is identified with just one kind of futures and one specific type of trading…moreover, the professional is identified by his specialty-scalper, short-term trader, spread trader, or whatever. He does the same thing every day (pp. 10-11, Sniper Trading).

John Murphy: “My work has gotten better due to simplifying my approach.” (KEY TO SUCCESS)

December 14, 2010

Dr. Thomas K. Carr, in his book Trend Trading For a Living, shares with us the 10 habits of highly successful traders. Here they are:

1. Follow the Rule of Three. The rule of three simply states that a trade will not be made unless you can carefully articulate three reasons for doing so. This eliminates trading from an indicator alone.

2. Keep Losses Small. It is vitally important to keep losses small as most all of large losses began as small ones, and large losses can put an end to your trading career.

3. Adjust Stops. When a trade is working move your stop loss up in order to lock in gains.

4. Keep Commissions Low. There is a cost to trading but there is no reason to overpay brokerage fees. A discount brokerage is just as good as a premium brand name one.

5. Amateurs at the Open, Pros at the Close. The best time to enter trades are after lunch when the professionals are looking to get in at a better price than one provided in the morning.

6. Know the General Market Trend. When trading individual stocks make sure you trade with the general market trend or condition, not against it.

7. Write Down Every Trade. Doing this will allow you to learn what is working and what is not. It will also help you determine what types of trades work best for your personality.

8. Never Average Down a Losing Position. It is a loser's game when you add to a loser. You add to winning positions because they are winners and are proving themselves to be such.

9. Never Overtrade. Overtrading is a direct result of not following a well thought out plan, deciding it is best to trade off emotion instead. This will do nothing but cause frustration and a loss of money.

10. Give 10 Percent Away. Money works the fastest when it is divided. When we share we prime the economic pump of the universe.

Trading is a game of rules. We either make the decision to abide by them or we break them. We do the latter at our own peril.

December 7, 2010

James P. Owen, a 40 year veteran on Wall Street, has written a interesting book entitled Cowboy Ethics: What Wall Street Can Learn From the Code of the West. In it he lists the 10 codes of the working cowboy, explaining how each code can be a source of inspiration for all those involved in Wall Street, from traders to institutions. Along with the message are beautiful photographs throughout by David Stoecklein. You could actually classify this as a trader's coffee table book. Here are the codes:

1. Live Each Day With Courage. Real courage is being scared to death and saddling up anyway, setting aside the fear of the unknown knowing there is work to be done.

2. Take Pride in Your Work. Cowboying doesn't build character, it reveals it. Stock trading brings out what is already there: pride in the preparation.

3. Always Finish What You Start. When you're riding through hell...keep riding. Good stock traders, like cowboys, never quit in the face of uncertainty.

4. Do What Has to be Done. The true test of a man's honor was how much he would risk to keep it intact. Stock trading is about taking responsibility for decisions and results, just like the cowboys.

5. Be Tough, But Fair. The Golden Rule was nothing less than a key to survival. Cowboys always treated others with respect, especially those who differed. Should we not do the same, whether bull or bear?

6. When You Make a Promise Keep It. A man is only as good as his word. You have no one to trust but yourself and when you have rules they are there for you to follow. If you do not, then you have broken a promise to yourself. Same with traders as with cowboys.

7. Ride For The Brand. The cowboy's greatest devotion was to his calling and his way of life. If you have clients, the clients come first; if you have family depending on your discipline, then they come first. Period.

8. Talk Less and Say More. When there's nothing more to say, don't be saying it. No room for bragging or boasting out on the range or in the market. Your work, devotion, and steadfastness speaks for itself. Enough said.

9. Remember That Some Things Are Not For Sale. To the cowboy, the best things in life aren't "things." What matters most on the range and in the trading room is not what money can buy but what can't be bought. Reputation is all that really matters.

10. Know Where to Draw the Line. There is right and there is wrong, and nothing in between. Insider trading, whispers, rumors, secret deals behind close doors, and all manner of questionable activities may be all around us but we do not have to embrace them as our own.

Of all the places to learn a few lessons about investing and ourselves, is it not refreshing to find a few on the open range from a time not so long ago?

1. Failing to Cut Losses Short: The most frequently committed error among traders. "We are of the school of thought that believes that traders' most precious commodity is their original capital, and that they are doomed to utter failure if they do not do everything in their power to prevent its erosion" (91).

2. Dollar Counting: Focusing on how much a trade is up or down at any given moment can rob traders of profitable opportunities. "Once a trade is taken, traders must work to forget their profits...and focus on the proper technique" (94).

3. Switching Time Frames: This is the error of buying in one time frame and selling in another. The trader may buy in a longer term time frame, say the daily, but see a reversal on a 60 minute chart and sell. This is "nothing more than a rationalization to ignore stops" (96).

4. Needing To Know More: Everyday traders must face the fear of pulling the trigger. One of the symptoms of this fear is the need to know more but "the fact of the matter is that the brass ring goes to those who can act intelligently without the need to know more" (98).

5. Becoming Too Complacent: It is easy to become complacent when there has been a string of winners. "When a winning streak has fattened your purse, you must do everything in your power to keep your hard-earned gains and maintain the same intelligent mind-set that helped to produce those gains" (100).

6. Winning the Wrong Way: Many novice traders make money the wrong way and will eventually pay for it. Traders make money the wrong way by not adhering to a rule or a stop loss and end up making money anyway. This sets up a "taste of false success, and the market will eventually ensure that they give back this unearned profit sooner or later" (103). The next time a rule or a stop is ignored the losses will far outweigh the previous gains.

7. Rationalizing: This is a form of denial when in a losing trade. Honesty, real honesty, no matter how ugly the truth, will put you above most market players unable to summon such strength from within, preferring instead to be comfortable, blaming their losses on something or someone other than themselves" (106).

No matter which one of the seven deadly sins we have committed, we should ask ourselves the question: have we learned from them, asked for forgiveness, and are we ready to turn over a new leaf? The market is a great teacher if we will only listen and obey.

November 9, 2010

I am currently reading Trade Like An O'Neil Disciple by Gil Morales and Dr. Chris Kacher in preparation for a major book review I plan on publishing at my CROSSHAIRS blog. One of the chapters, with a wealth of information, is "Our Bill of Commandments" wherein the authors discuss William O'Neil's (think IBD) stock trading commandments. I thought it would be worthwhile to list them here.

1. Never Get Carried Away With Yourself. "The basic idea is that one should remain impervious to the illusions and trappings of wealth, as they often lead one to become carried away to the point where excess of one sort or another ultimately leads to one's demise" (265).

2. Never Operate From a Position of Fear. "If you are fearful in the markets, either as a result of taking a recent loss or some other mistake, or even as a result of being nervous about the level of risk you are taking, then you are putting yourself in the position of making and unclear and hence incorrect decision" (265).

3. You Learn More From Your Enemies Than You Do From Your Friends. Make sure you take the criticism's of others and use them to your advantage by recognizing that the more others criticize the more you value your own beliefs, trading or otherwise.

4. Never Stop Learning and Improving. Always focus your mistakes and searching for ways to correct them. That way you will not be as tempted to make the same mistake again.

5. Never Talk About Your Stocks. This is purely an ego taming exercise. While I personally believe it is ok to discuss technical analysis and stocks that may be on a watchlist there is really no benefit in bragging about success and hiding your failures. It is ok to be wrong.

6. Don't Get Giddy at the Top. Bigger charts (such as the WEEKLY) are the best barameters for giddiness. By watching over extended big charts, the trader's emotions can be better managed thereby avoiding jumping on the caboose as the train is set to take a break from its recent trip.

7. Use Weekly Charts First, Daily Second, and Ignore Intra-day Charts. No need to focus on the noise at the expense of listening to the still, small voice of Mr Market.

8. Find The Big Stock. Look for stocks under accumulation and then begin buying in preparation for distribution.

9. Be Careful Who You Get Into Bed With. Although not a trading rule per se, keeping good, solid company outside the charts, can help you be the best trader inside the charts. "Trust and integrity between two people are the most important variables in life and in business" (269).

10. Always Maintain Insane Focus. Focus "is what makes life worth living, and by relentlessly pursuing our passions we attain the state of insane focus that in turn drives high levels of success" (269).

No matter what you think of O'Neil and his trading strategy, one thing is for certain his commandments are applicable to all of us both in and outside the charts.

November 2, 2010

Sun Tzu, known for his treatise The Art of War, would have made an excellent trader. The principles he taught for proper military strategy are just as applicable today on the stock trading battlefield as they were 2500 years ago when originally penned. I have taken the liberty to translate a few of his principles for the modern day stock trading warrior. Let me know what you think.

1. Now the successful trader prepares before he enters battle. The unsuccessful trader makes but a few, if any, preparations before he enters battle. Proper preparation leads to victory; a little preparation leads to defeat; and no preparation leads to ultimate destruction! The one who is properly prepared is the one who is most likely to win.

2. In trading, let your great object be a quick and decisive victory, not the slow death of a lengthy loss.

3. If you know who the enemy is and you know yourself, you will never fear the next trade. If you know yourself but not the enemy, you will win one lose one. If you do not know the enemy or yourself, you will lose on each trade.

4. The quality of entry is like a well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables it to strike and destroy its victim.

5. Proper preparation may be likened to the bending of a crossbow; decision, to the releasing of the trigger.

6. Just as water retains no constant shape, so in trading know the market is constantly changing.

7. Ponder and deliberate before you enter a trade.

8. To refrain from entering a market that is prepared to defend its current course is the art of practicing patience by studying current market conditions.

9. He who does not think through his trade while making light of the situation is sure to fall victim to a loss.

10. Do not trade unless you see there is an advantage in doing so; use not your money unless there is something to be gained.

11. The successful trader is heedful and full of caution. This is the way to have peace of mind and to live to trade another day.

12. What enables the wise and successful traders to trade and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary traders, is proper preparation.