Eurofile: The Swedish No vote may signal the beginning of Europe a la carte

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Brussels

12:01AM BST 20 Sep 2003

After rejecting the euro in a referendum, Sweden's nine million citizens were told this week that they now face costly isolation as core Europe pushes on ahead with deeper union.

"If you're out, you're out," scolded Romano Prodi, the European Commission's president. "I don't think we can conceive of always going at the speed of the slowest in the convoy."

Despite the Brussels bluster, it is far from clear whether there is an identifiable convoy, or whether it is going in any particular direction.

Spain's prime minister, Jose-Maria Aznar, told a group of Euro-MPs this week that it was time to "forget" the founding fathers' dreams of a tightly bound federal union. With 10 new countries joining the European Union next year, the game was changing beyond recognition.

The crushing Swedish No may ultimately prove to be the high-water mark of European federalism. Mr Prodi's "Outs" have at least a plausible chance of winning this titanic struggle. Valery Giscard d'Estaing's draft constitution is in deep trouble. Several states have already announced referendums on the text, and others may follow suit.

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The litmus test is Holland, a founder member of the European club and for decades the model of pro-European moderation. A rejection by the Dutch would drive a stake through the constitution's heart.

The ruling Christian Democrats have agreed to a vote, chiefly in order to hold their coalition together. Lousevies van der Laan, a pro-European MEP from the D-66 liberal party, said it was going to be heavy going.

"There is a big risk of a No. The atmosphere has really changed in Holland since we became big net contributors to the budget," she said. "The leaders in their ivory towers have left the people far behind.

"People are quite worried that the EU will force us to give up our drugs and euthanasia policy once we lose the veto."

The Earl of Stockton, a pro-European Tory MEP and a member of the drafting convention, said Sweden's No was a watershed moment. "It is the end of menu fixe, and the beginning of Europe a la carte," he said.

The constitution might never come into force, he added. "I think at least two or three countries will reject it, and then it will fall apart." But ardent integrationists will not give up without a fight. The euro is irreversible, and arguably entails much closer union as states bring their budget policies into alignment.

France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg are pressing ahead with plans to break the Nato lockhold on European defence. Spain, Italy and Holland are so far conspicuous by their absence from this bloc. Rather than a "two-speed Europe", the future may offer a three- or four-speed Europe.

Even France is a little wobbly. Paris is now on the receiving end of scathing criticism from EU ministers over its breaches of the stability pact and of diktats from a Brussels apparatus now seen to be in thrall to Anglo-Saxon "Thatcherites".

In the end, it may be the French themselves who lose their ardour for European integration.