1/25/13

Update coming as soon as I get more info, but breaking report is that two people are dead in clashes between protesters at the Candente Copper (DNT.to) Cañariaco project and police. We note that on Jan 16th IKN said "there will be blood". It took just nine days, sadly.

UPDATE: Unconfirmed information says the two dead are locals who were part of a group that blocked the access road to the Cañariaco mining camp. Two names are being mentioned, but until there's official confirmation it's probably best not to publish.

UPDATE 2: Peru's national paper La Republica now reporting the deaths. Here's a quick translation of the La Republica early report:

Lambayeque: Two dead after confrontation between locals and police in Cañaris

Friday 25th Jan. 3:37pm

The incident left at least 10 injured people who have been taken to hospital

Today Friday saw two dead in a confrontation between around 100 police officers from the national police foces and 400 anti-mining locals protesters from Cañaris and Incahuasi (Lambayeque) who blocked the "Marayhucaca" road, the access road to the Candente Copper mining campsite.

The victims have been identified as Santos Tantarico and Lindaura Sánchez, according to the activist Rocio Silva Santisteban via her Twitter account.

Meanwhile, the chief of territorial police of Chiclayo, Colonel Jorge Linares Ripalda, said that the action taken involved a member of the Public Ministry who was attempting to establish a dialogue with the protesters.

UPDATE 3: Oh this is cute: The chief of police says denied that there had been any deaths and that his officers had only used "dissuasive force", via the use of tear gas and rubber bullets. Repeated here.UPDATE 4: The original source of the names for the La Republica report above now seems to be backtracking. Previously she said "confirmed" on the two deaths but now she says that "Cañaris confused information: family members and local leaders from Marayhuaca say that there are 2 dead, Minister Pedraza (says) that there are only injured people". Time will tell which side is right and the markets are now closed, so your humble scribe will leave it for the real news services to work it all out and bring you the story (as they certainly will). No need to read a third-rate site such as this for your information, for sure. Over and out.

UPDATE 5: ok ok, one more update. Both locals and police now confirm that there are no deaths to report, fortunately. However there are 24 injured, some seriously and at least one, according to a doctor on the scene, from gunshot wounds. This directly contradicts the police who said that no live ammo firearms were used. In other words there still was blood. And one other thing: you thought locals were pissed before? You ain't seen nothing yet.

But the very thought that a Stan Bharti company would be privately tipping off its favoured friends and fine folk so that they could make a quick killing at the expense of market rubes? Nah, surely not!

...under two conditions. According to today's reports out of Cañaris (here's an example), locals at the site of the proposed copper mine owned by Candente Copper (DNT.to) would be willing to sit down and negotiate with the company about the controversial project, but ask for two conditions:

1) DNT puts a halt on its current exploration work (i.e. the drilling at the Cañariaco Norte target) that was the spark that set off this latest round of protests.

2) The negotiation meeting is set up in the town of Cañaris itself, rather than in the nation's capital Lima or the regional capital Lambayeque.

To be honest, that sounds reasonable. The ball's in your court, Ms. Freeze.

Three employees at Barrick's (ABX) Pascua Lama project on the Chile/Argentina border set a new Gangnam Style altitude record (errr...probably) of 5,000 metres above sea level (16,400 feet in old money).

The reason? The newspaper of record in Spain (and often cited as the premier media source in the Spanish-speaking world) said it's a photo of Hugo Chávez, it turns out that it's not Hugo Chávez, El Pais quickly retracted the photo from editions and its website (which, strangely for that publication carried no byline) but the horse had already bolted and now Venezuela has started legal action against 'El Pais'. In the words ofVenezuela's Communications Minster Ernesto Villegas (translated):

"The Executive Vice-President (Nicolás Maduro) has instructed us to take action leading to a legal demand against this newspaper for the grave offensive for which the dignity of the President of the Republic is affected by a false photograph."

So it looks like El Pais royally screwed up here and there will be consequences. Mind you, it would be nice to get a real snap of the man from real Venezuelan government sources, wouldn't it? After all, there seems to be a teensy weensy bit of an information gap about the state of Hugo, so perhaps it's time for the Venezuelan government to be....what?...how can we say?...a little bit more....errr...transparent?

...in the fourth quarter of 2012 when he refused to jump on the Huldra Silver (HDA.v) pump and pointed out a few basic weaknesses in the company story, both in email exchanges (with multiple persons) and also in an episode of our semi regular snarkfest "Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™" (part 65).

We apologize for possessing a memory.

(Uff, I'm considering setting up a short-only service. It's the only thing I seem to be good at doing these days).

1/24/13

There's something wonderful about a Spanish PM coming to Peru and begging the localsto plough money into the country that plundered the merry fark out of them 400 years ago but is now bankrupt. The Inca concept of pachakuti showing through...and right on time, too.

1/23/13

It's now slamming it down with rain, about 15°c colder and we're sheltering in the small town about 10km from this photo. Such is the way with weather in rainy seasons at 12,500 feet above sea level, but it does give a decent excuse to check in here and catch up with those everso everso important daily moves in the market. As for the location? Your best guesses welcomed.

1/22/13

Just a quick word to inform that your humble scribe now finds his humble self at a location with very limited interwebz access, so posting will be light for a couple of days. Hope you have a nice week.

1/21/13

I don't think I've ever considered an article on any aspect of Latin American politics brilliant before today. This article by Brian Winter of Reuters starts with an interesting subject matter, that of the Brazilian clown Tiririca who famously ran for congress, got there and since then has turned out to be one of the better members of the bunch. However Winter uses him as a starting point rather than a finished subject, and lays on thoughts that must have been gestating in his brain for some time. IKN heartily recommends this report to anyone interested in world politics, not just those of Brazil or LatAm, so pull up your favourite comfy chair, a cup of something warm andread this long form note of great merit.

I have to say that I was a little surprised to see OGC trade slightly lower at the open this morning after this NR had hit the wires, because the 4q12 numbers were pretty darned good.

Maybe the market was a bit leery about the teething problems reported at Didipio? Maybe it's because the NR hit after the Oz market was shut and as that's the opinion which normally drives the stock (and USA is closed), Canada didn't really know what to think? I dunno, but since the open OGC has moved up a couple of pennies and volumes are pretty good for a closed NYSE day too. Might be a sleeper.

Galway Gold (GLW.v), the second spin-out company to come from the recent sale of Galway Resources (ex-GWY.v) to Eike Batista, started trading this morning...

...and it's doing good business, comfortably over 40c. So for those of you who are counting, the days around the Batista buyout saw GWY trading around $2.15 to $2.20. For that price you would have got yourself:

$2.05 in cash from the deal (paid)

A share of Galway Metals (GWM.v) that's priced now at 5c

A share of Galway Gold (GLW.v) and let's call that 42c today.

Or in other words, it was an easy 15% arb. Which is why your humble scribe bought GWY at $2.19.

The following memo/mail has been sent to your humble scribe and although there's no way of verifying its authenticity, the source is trustworthy and totally reliable, the sound of the memo is correct and in light of recent events in Colombia, its contents are holding up to examination as well. So we're running with it and allowing the reader to do with it what they will.

Below is the original Spanish, above is your author's translation

Security Front Meeting BR-14

Good afternoon to all,On January 15th the Commander of Brigade XIV, with HQ at the port of Berrio, and responsile for the security of Northeast Antioquia region, calls to a meeting all company representatives of the region and according to the security agreement with the armed forces, said meeing will inform on the intentions of the FARC armed group for this year, thanks to the capture of one of its head personnel who had in his possession documents that had been written in a meeting with heads of the guerrilla group recently.They are the following:1) Increase in assassinations of public figures (mayors, political representatives, members of the public armed forces)2) Increase in extortion and vaccinations (against companies, unions and commerce)3) Penetration of universities and schools, businesses, State offices (looking for information to promote its illicit activities and the creation of a group named "Young Rebels")4) Hit strategic targets in order to destabilize the State, cause chaos and destructive force (energy, hydrocarbons, mining)5) Attack permanent armed forces bases 6) Increment in hijacking of directors and company contractors in coordination with Bacrim (criminal groups or paramilitaries)7) The start of an offensive, in two phases, the first between January 18th and February 2nd and the second from January 3rd onwards.8) Supplanting (disguising as or feigning to be company employees to gain access to various locations in order to commit acts of sabotage).9) Attraction maneuvers (faking of small terrorist actions in certain sectors to attract attention in order to commit larger acts of destruction elsewhere).

Nicholas CampbellSoup of the Can of Corn seems to disagree with Adam Graf of Dalman Rose. While Graf famously considered Golden Minerals (AUM.to) (AUMN) as a $104 per share and turned his rich client base into not-so-rich clients as a result, CampbellSoup has finally seen the light and dropped his rating (hold from spec buy) and target $4.75 from $7) on the dog.

Meanwhile, Steve Green of TD Sec has consistently shown more nous about AuRico (AUQ) than the rest of the sellside anal yst community in Frostyland and never fallen for the BS hype this company generates. This is underscored today as he drops his target on the stock to $6.50 (from $7) and the call to reduce (from hold). This is the correct anal ysis of the day and Mr. Green wins the internets.

1/20/13

IKN194 has just been sent to subscribers and it's not that often it occurs, but today's is a pretty good edition methinks. Here's the cover letter that went out with it.

Good Sunday evening,The main event today is the upgrading of one of our covered stocks to 'Top Pick' status, the first time in a long time that this has happened. We also check out production results and take a careful look at a couple of hot political risk events in Peru and Colombia. Plenty more besides.All feedback welcomed.Best, O

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