Could Egypt fall apart?

By Michael Martinez, CNN

Updated 1344 GMT (2144 HKT) January 31, 2013

Photos: Egypt unstable after days of protest45 photos

Egypt unstable after days of protest – An Egyptian protester throws a tear gas canister toward riot police during clashes outside the Egyptian presidential palace on Friday, February 1, in Cairo. Egypt has been embroiled in violence since last week, the two-year anniversary of an uprising that led to the ouster of then-President Hosni Mubarak.

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Photos: Egypt unstable after days of protest45 photos

Egypt unstable after days of protest – A protester holds a smoke flare outside the presidential palace on February 1.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – The entrance of Egypt's presidential palace in Cairo is in flames February 1, as protesters battle security forces.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A protester faces off against riot police during clashes near Cairo's Tahrir Square on Wednesday, January 30.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A police officer fires a tear gas canister during clashes with protesters near Tahrir Square on January 30.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Police in plainclothes detain a youth suspected of being a member of the Black Bloc opposition group during a demonstration on January 30 in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A protester sprays water into the eyes of a man after his exposure to tear gas during clashes with police near Cairo's Tahrir Square on Tuesday, January 29.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – The lobby of Cairo's Semiramis InterContinental Hotel is full of debris on January 29 after protesters stormed the entrance.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – An Egyptian man takes part in a rally in Port Said on January 29. Protests in Port Said and nearby cities along the Suez Canal are symbolic because that region was among the first where the Mubarak regime lost control during the 2011 unrest, analysts say.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Mourners carry the coffins of six people killed in clashes after the soccer riot ruling in Port Said on Monday, January 28. Rage exploded when a judge sentenced to death 21 residents of Port Said for roles in a deadly 2012 soccer riot.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Egyptians walk past destroyed cars in Port Said on January 28 following the funeral of those killed in clashes.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A riot police officer clashes with a protester near Cairo's Tahrir Square on January 28.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A protester throws a tear gas canister toward riot police in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Sunday, January 27.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Egyptian policemen and relatives on January 27 gather upon the arrival of the coffins of their colleagues killed in the violence one day earlier in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A protester throws a rock toward opposing demonstrators on January 27 in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Egyptian protesters throw stones toward riot police on January 27 in Tahrir Square.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – An Egyptian protester runs with a live tear gas canister toward Egyptian riot police on Saturday, January 26, in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Egyptian fans of Al-Ahly football club celebrate outside the club's headquarters in Cairo on January 26.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Egyptian fans of Al-Ahly football club celebrate outside the club's headquarters in Cairo on January 26.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Egyptian protesters stand by the burning door of a school building on January 26, in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – An Egyptian protester carries an injured boy away from clashes with Egyptian riot police on January 26, in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Egyptians climb over a fence at the Al-Ahly home stadium on January 26 in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – An Egyptian fan of Al-Ahly football club fires celebratory shots in the air and lights a flare as club supporters celebrate outside its headquarters in Cairo on January 26.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A protester throws a rock at riot police on January 26, in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A fan of Al-Ahly football club lights a flare as club supporters celebrate on January 26 in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Al-Ahly football club supporters celebrate outside the club's headquarters in Cairo on January 26.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Al-Ahly football club supporters celebrate on January 26.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Smoke billows from a burning vehicle set on fire by Egyptian protesters outside the Port Said prison on January 26.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Egyptians react after the sentencing in Port Said on January 26.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – An Al-Ahly soccer fan swings a live flare above his head on January 26 in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – An Egyptian protester tries to carry an injured man away from clashes with riot police on January 26, in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Egyptian fans of Al-Ahly football club rally outside the club's headquarters in Cairo on January 26.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – An Egyptian protester runs away from a cloud of tear gas fired by Egyptian riot police on January 26, in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Relatives of victims killed during the 2012 Port Said soccer game react after the verdict of the court, at a courthouse in Cairo, on January 26.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Relatives and friends of Egyptian protesters who were killed in Suez during clashes with riot police Friday, load a body onto an ambulance outside the morgue in Suez on January 26.

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Photos: Egypt unstable after days of protest45 photos

Egypt unstable after days of protest – A fan of Al-Ahly football club lights a flare as club supporters celebrate outside its headquarters in Cairo on January 26.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Two protesters stand on top of a piece of furniture while riot police watch from a nearby rooftop in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A protester throws a rock at riot police in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – An Egyptian protester walks through a cloud of tear gas fired by Egyptian riot police.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – An "Ahly-Ultra" soccer fan holds a smoke flare above his head in Cairo.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A protester walks through a damaged school building.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – A protester removes the net from a basketball goal in a Cairo schoolyard.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Protesters and football fans clash with riot police near Egypt's interior ministry.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Protesters and fans of Al-Masry football club take part in a demonstration in front of the prison in Port Said.

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Egypt unstable after days of protest – Egyptian protesters and fans of Al-Masry football club wave their club colors as they take part in a demonstration in front of the prison in the Egyptian Suez Canal city of Port Said on Friday, January 25, calling for the prisoners who are suspected of killing 74 fans of Al-Ahly club during a football match in February 2012 not to be transferred to Cairo to attend their trial. A judge sentenced 21 people to death for their roles in the riot last year.

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Story highlights

Egypt's raging conflict "may lead to the collapse of the state," defense minister says

The remark is a warning that things are getting out of control, analysts say

But experts largely agree that the remark is "a bit over the top"

Egypt's government needs to build "confidence" among its people, Clinton says

The renewed bloodshed and defiant protests in Egypt prompts a provocative question: Could Egypt really collapse?

Just two years into a revolution that ignited during the Arab Spring, Egypt's defense minister warned this week the raging conflict "may lead to the collapse of the state and threaten the future of our coming generations."

On Wednesday, analysts described that statement as overreaching, but none dismissed the severity of the country's problems.

"His comments were a bit over the top," said Joshua Stacher, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center of Scholars.

"It depends on what your definition of what 'collapse' is," added Steven A. Cook, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "The economy is certainly in terrible shape."

"But five days of riots and tens of deaths and thousands of demonstrators still in Tahrir Square two years after the fall of (Hosni) Mubarak, I can understand why he would say it."

Analysts agreed that the remarks should serve as an alarm.

"It was a warning to everybody -- the opposition, the Brotherhood -- that they've got to get their act together," said CNN correspondent Ben Wedeman in Cairo. He was referring to the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist party to which President Mohamed Morsy belongs.

Morsy's government needs to understand that the revolution's aspirations "have to be taken seriously" and that "the rule of law applied to everyone," she said.

"It's very difficult going from a closed regime -- essentially one-man rule -- to a democracy that is trying to be born and learn to walk," Clinton explained. "I think the messages and the actions coming from the leadership have to be changed in order to give people confidence that they are on the right path to the kind of future they seek."

Exacerbating the political crisis is Egypt's woeful economy, where the lifeblood of tourism is all but dead and the currency is devalued, analysts said.

Recent demonstrations in Port Said and nearby cities along the Suez Canal are symbolic because that region was among the first where the Mubarak regime lost control during the 2011 unrest leading to revolution, analysts said. The region has long felt distant from Cairo.

Demonstrators this week ignored the curfew Morsy imposed on the region following bloodshed on the second anniversary of the revolution last Friday. Protesters fed up with slow change clashed with authorities, leaving seven people dead.

Rage exploded again when a judge sentenced to death 21 residents of Port Said for their roles in a deadly soccer riot last year. At least 38 people were killed in the two days of violence after the verdict.

The defense minister denied reports that the army used live ammunition on the protesters, state-run media said.

"What struck me this time was the call for emergency law and emergency measures, and it was just ignored," Cook said. "The people in Port Said were demonstrating and just thumbed their nose at the government."

Protesters behind the Egyptian revolution now feel betrayed, particularly as the state security agency was changed in name only to homeland security, Stacher said. No one from Mubarak's coercive security apparatus was sentenced for any violence during the revolutionary rallies, he said.

Protesters now just throw rocks at police during most encounters, he added.

"This all boils down to something very basic," Stacher said. "The people demanded real change in Egypt but were lied to and their wishes were postponed and they were told they weren't important.

"And the generals went around and created this exclusivist coalition (with Morsy's government), which is what people were protesting against in the first place," Stacher said.

In fact, protesters began calling Morsy "Morsilini," a reference to the late Italian fascist dictator Benito Mussolini who was Adolf Hitler's ally. That nickname arose after Morsy gave himself sweeping powers in November.

Morsy later canceled most of those powers following demonstrations. That turn of events hurt Morsy's image because he was enjoying international attention for playing a constructive role in the recent, bloody conflict in Gaza between Hamas and Israeli forces, analysts said.

The stakes are high for a country strategically positioned in Middle Eastern politics and in world trade through the Suez Canal.

"I don't think the international community can afford for (Egypt) to collapse economically ... or politically," Cook said.

The defense minister's warning is "very important" because "it shows the military has been in consultation about this. That's why I take it more seriously," Cook added.

In the coming month, Egyptians will go to the polls to elect a lower house in Parliament. The election will be a bellwether on how Morsy's Muslim Brotherhood now stands against the opposition coalition National Salvation Front, analysts said.

"They are smart people," Stacher said of opposition leaders, "but the problem is that they don't seem like they want to have a real democracy either."

For now, the Egyptian military doesn't appear to want to intervene and run the Egyptian government again as another president is selected.

"If the situation deteriorates further, the military might not have a choice and it might find a warm reception," Cook wrote on his blog for the Council on Foreign Relations.

In a revolution, the first government typically doesn't stay in power, as seen in the Russian and French revolutions, Coyle explained.

"Usually it gets replaced by more radical elements of society," he said.