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The issue for 2012 will be less the specific unemployment rate than its consistent direction. If it is at 8 percent but having declined sharply over the previous 6 to 9 months, then the economy won't be the thing that sinks the president. But if it is at 8 percent and wobbling back and forth, then this may be an election where the final tally is notably worse for the president than the pre-election surveys; that is, millions will go to the polls harboring either a quiet grudge or simple exhaustion from four years of soaring rhetoric combined with failed remedies. Any viable Republican candidate could win.

In that kind of scenario, Obama must play to win rather than not to lose, and playing to win against amidst high unemployment means being President Obama instead of Candidate Obama. "Not my fault" won't work after four years, but showing sufficient leadership to deal with the nation's long-term fiscal crisis could be enough for voters to believe that, on balance, they already have right guy.

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