Tropical Storm JERRY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013
THE STRUCTURE OF JERRY HAS EVOLVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. EARLIER TODAY THE CLOUD PATTERN RESEMBLED A SHEARED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENTLY...BANDING FEATURES
HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW MUCH MORE
SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON
A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.
THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE STORM DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS APPARENTLY SLACKENED...GIVEN THE MORE SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGING ON JERRY. THESE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 72 HOURS...
WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE SINCE THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE RANGING FROM DISSIPATION WITHIN A
FEW DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS...TO A HURRICANE
AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM.
JERRY IS STILL MOVING EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL SOON SLOW DOWN AND
MEANDER WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT LIES
TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 27.4N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 27.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 27.1N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 27.3N 45.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 27.9N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 29.0N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 30.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 33.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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