With Blazers back in the NBA draft lottery, a quick primer and look at their two potential picks

Associated Press/2007Can you guess which guy represented the team that got the No. 1 pick in the 2007 NBA draft lottery? Brandon Roy represented the Blazers, who got the top pick despite having just a 5.3 percent chance. Dominique Wilkins' Hawks got the third pick, and Lenny Wilkens' SuperSonics got No. 2.

You almost expect a fellow in tuxedo, holding a tray with cold drinks, opening a door and greeting us with:

"Portland, welcome back to the NBA draft lottery. It's been a while."

With the Trail Blazers' defeat to Phoenix on Monday, the Blazers were -- as the official NBA standings quickly said in a footnote -- "officially eliminated from playoff contention." That means, for the first time since 2007-08, the Blazers are in the NBA draft lottery.

Blazers fans have even more reason to be interested in the lottery because Portland potentially has two first-round draft picks -- its own, and the one it acquired at the trade deadline from New Jersey in the deal that sent Gerald Wallace to the Nets.

The draft lottery is Wednesday, May 30. The NBA draft is Thursday, June 28.

Let's break these down. First, a quick primer:What is the Draft Lottery? It is used to determine the first three picks of the NBA draft, with the 14 teams who miss the playoff given opportunities. The team with the worst record in the league gets the best odds of getting a top-three picks, and odds get worse in descending order.

The league puts 14 numbered ping-pong balls in a machine and draws four. There are 1,000 possible combinations of numbers. The team with the worst record gets 250 combinations, meaning it has a 25 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick.

The team with the 14th-worst record gets five combinations.How is the rest of the draft ordered? After the top three spots are determined by the lottery, the remaining 27 are determined by record, worst to best. PORTLAND'S PICKS

The New Jersey pick: The draft pick Portland got from New Jersey is top-three protected, which means if the Nets get one of the top three picks, they keep it this season, and the Blazers would get it in a future season. (The pick is top-two protected in 2013, top-one in 2014, and unprotected in 2015).

After their loss to Miami last night, the Nets fell to 22-40, tying them for the sixth-worst record with Toronto. Because teams who finish with the same record add, then divide, their combinations, if the season ended today, the Nets and Raptors would each have 53 combinations. So the Nets' odds of getting a top-three pick right now would be:

No. 1 pick: 5.3 percentNo. 2 pick: 6.0 percentNo. 3 pick: 7.3 percent

The best the Nets' pick could be if the Blazers get it, if the season ended today, would be No. 6, and that would depend on Toronto not getting a No. 1-3 pick, and then New Jersey winning a coin flip with the Raptors.The Blazers' own pick: Monday's loss dropped the Blazers to 28-34, the 11th-worst record in the league. That makes them long shots to land a top-three pick. If they remain at No. 11, the Blazers would have eight possible combination out of the 1,000. Their odds:

No. 1 pick: 0.8 percentNo. 2 pick: 0.9 percentNo. 3 pick: 1.2 percent

If fortune does not go the Blazers' way, their would have a 90.7 percent chance of getting the No. 11 pick.

Also, we should note that the odds on both picks will likely change several times before the end of the season.THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR

The draft lottery rarely goes according odds, making luck the single most important thing in getting a high pick. The Blazers' recent history has two very prominent examples.

In 2005-06, Portland finished a league-worst 21-61, giving them a 25 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick. Instead, they ended up with the No. 4 pick, the very worst they could do.

The Blazers didn't mope, though, going into frantic trading mode on draft day, turning the No. 4 pick into the rights for No. 2 pick LaMarcus Aldridge (who came, along with a second-round pick, to Portland in exchange for the rights to Tyrus Thomas plus forward Victor Khryapa).

Portland also landed the No. 7 pick in a trade with Boston (along with Raef LaFrentz and Dan Dickau, for Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff and a second-round pick). The Blazers then drafted Randy Foye and traded his rights, along with cash, to Minnesota for Brandon Roy, whom the Timberwolves picked on Portland's behalf at No. 6.

The following year, after the Blazers finished 32-50 for the sixth-worst record, they had a 5.3 percent chance of the No. 1 pick -- but got it in the lottery. They picked Greg Oden, but that's a completely different kind of luck.