Google Odds: A Possible Search First

January 13, 2010

Amidst the furor of the Google – China issue, I noticed that most of the pundits ignored the global disruptive power of a Google decision. I may be one of the few—maybe the only addled goose—pointing out that Google operates like a nation-state, not a garden variety company. Another example of Google’s significance popped up in my Overflight service this morning. PaddyPower.com, an online wagering operation, issued a news release with the headline “Bookie Calls Google for Chinese Takeaway.” The company has put odds on Google’s action. Here’s the relevant passage:

Bookies Paddy Power are offering odds of 3/1 that Internet giant Google will follow through on it’s threat to quit China before 2012. The harsh warning by the worlds biggest search engine was sparked after the illegal hacking of Chinese Gmail accounts and comes amid increasing tensions between the US and China over Internet censorship. Any move by Google to quit China will no doubt comes as good news for China’s leading search engine, Baidu, that currently enjoys a 60 percent share of the Chinese Internet search market. Paddy Power are quoting odds of 10/11 that their market share will increase to 65 per cent by the end of 2010. Paddy Power said “China is obviously a massive potential market for Google so it will be interesting to see what the long-term strategic impact will be should they effectively give two fingers to the Chinese government and jump ship”

Three to one. If I were a betting goose, maybe?

Stephen E. Arnold, January 13, 2010

No one paid me to write this news item. Since it relates to wagering, I will report it to one of the many lottery commissions. Now which state governs geese?

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Stephen E. Arnold monitors search, content processing, text mining
and related topics from his high-tech nerve center in rural Kentucky.
He tries to winnow the goose feathers from the giblets. He works with colleagues
worldwide to make this Web log useful to those who want to go
"beyond search". Contact him at sa [at] arnoldit.com. His Web site
with additional information about search is arnoldit.com.