The mobile sector continues its lead

The mobile sector will continue to be a focus of interest
in 2011, with increasing mobile broadband demand,
new mobile devices, and growth of m-applications and
services, according to the 11th edition of ITU’s report
Trends in Telecommunication Reform.

Released on 31 March, Trends in Telecommunication
Reform 2010–2011 says that ICT markets around the
world are becoming more competitive in just about
every segment, from international gateway services to
wireless local loop (WLL) and third-generation (3G) mobile
communications. In 2010, more than 93 per cent of
countries worldwide allowed competition in the provision
of Internet services, and 90 per cent in the provision
of mobile cellular services. A further 92 per cent
have competitive 3G mobile broadband markets.

The new report confirms ITU’s earlier estimates that
worldwide, mobile cellular subscriptions now total over
5.3 billion. This figure also includes 940 million mobile
broadband subscriptions, which are expected to reach
1 billion before mid-2011. Mobile cellular penetration in
the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russian Federation, India and
China), which represent more than 40 per cent of the
world’s population, has grown from 4 per cent in 2000
to an estimated 69 per cent at the end of 2010.

In terms of number of subscriptions added between
2000 and 2010, China leads the BRIC countries with
some 764 million new subscriptions. In terms of relative
penetration, however, the Russian Federation has
accomplished truly remarkable growth from 2 per cent
to more than 164 per cent over the period. China and
India have both reached a mobile penetration rate of
60 per cent, each of those countries adding around
300 million mobile subscriptions in 2010.

Most of 2010’s mobile growth was in Asia-Pacific,
which saw the number of mobile cellular subscriptions
grow by 490 million (of 630 million globally), to reach
2.6 billion. For the first time, Asia-Pacific now has over
half the world’s mobile cellular subscriptions.

Social networking

Social networks are growing and attracting many
users. At the end of 2010, Facebook alone counted
600 million active users, representing more than one
third of Internet users worldwide. The map below underlines
the low-penetration level of social network users
in Africa, in line with low Internet user penetration
in that region.

Forty per cent of active Facebook users access the
platform through their mobile devices. Micro-blogging
site Twitter now has over 200 million registered users,
and 37 per cent of active Twitter users use their mobile
device to tweet. Data also show that two billion videos
are watched every day on YouTube, while five billion
photos are now hosted on Flickr.

Participation in social media networks, blog sites and
user-generated content (such as YouTube, Flickr and
Wikipedia) reflects the capacity of users and consumers
to take the opportunities these applications and services
offer for their professional and personal lives. These applications
and services reduce time and distance barriers,
and usher users into the global digital village, with
ubiquitous access and always-on connectivity.

The digital generation are likely to use their smart
phones, gaming consoles and tablets, rather than desktop
computers, to access the Internet, social networks
and online user-generated video. This will put additional
pressure on mobile operators to offer high-speed anytime
anywhere services.

New applications and services

Innovative services such as m-banking and mobile
money services, largely based on simple text messaging
(SMS), bring banking services to the unbanked, illustrating
how these services can have a far-reaching
impact on the ability of the rural and poorer populations
in developing countries to participate in the economy.
This is illustrated by the success of m-banking services
and m-payments in countries such as Kenya, Pakistan
and the Philippines. According to some estimates, more
than 364 million low-income, unbanked people could
be using mobile financial services by 2012.

Various m-applications are being developed to improve
the provision of services in sectors such as agriculture,
health, education, finance, employment, governance
and transport. In agriculture, for example, an
m-agriculture tool (mAgri) was developed in Senegal to
help to make agricultural value chains more efficient.

Meeting local demand and using local talent to
produce content are important elements of successful
m-applications. Innovation also requires an enabling
regulatory environment conducive to the establishment
of public-private partnerships and to attracting
investors.

Fostering competition through effective regulation

Considerable efforts have been made to foster competition
in telecommunication/ICT markets. Reform of
the licensing regimes in a number of countries over
the past five years has contributed to creating greater
market efficiency — attracting
more players to
offer new services and
deploy new technologies
for the benefit of
consumers. Countries
such as, Kenya, Malaysia,
Singapore, Tanzania and
Uganda have simplifi
ed authorizations and
reduced administrative
procedures as part of
their licensing reforms.

Some 70 per cent of countries worldwide
have introduced competition in basic fixed-line services
up from 38 per cent in 2000. Nevertheless, these services
still lag behind other ICT segments in terms of
competitiveness. The number of fixed-telephone lines
continued to decrease in 2010 in all regions except in
Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS); an estimated 1 million lines were added in each of
these two regions.

Growth in competition of selected ICT services worldwide

Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Regulatory Database

International gateways are now competitive in
81 per cent of countries worldwide, compared with
only 38 per cent in 2000. Competition in the provision
of leased lines grew by 28 per cent in ten years to reach
76 per cent in 2010. Wireless local loop services were
competitive in 85 per cent of the countries in 2010, up
from 63 per cent in 2000.

The 3G market is also highly competitive. In 2010,
95 per cent of countries allowed competition in the provision
of 3G services. The ongoing deployment of higher
speed 3G mobile broadband networks such WiMAX
and more recently HSPA+ and LTE systems will increase
uptake of mobile broadband services worldwide.

Regulatory measures taken in selected countries will
also contribute to speeding up the growth of mobile
broadband penetration. Examples of such measures include:
the licensing of 3G services in Cape Verde, India,
Gabon, Kenya and Mexico; spectrum refarming in the
United Kingdom and Finland; and planned allocation
of the bands freed up by the digital dividend in countries
such as Canada. These regulatory measures have
been complemented at the industry level by a move
towards developing next-generation 4G systems (or
IMT-Advanced).

Broadband per 100 inhabitants in 2010 (estimates)

Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database

Status of the main fixed-line incumbent in 2010 (estimates)

Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Regulatory Database.

Privatization

In 126 countries today, incumbent telecommunication
operators are either partly or fully in the hands
of private-sector owners and only 34 per cent of
incumbents remain State-owned. There are substantial
differences between regions: with 86 per cent of incumbents
in Europe having been fully or partially privatized;
71 per cent in the Americas; 52 per cent in the Arab
States and 50 per cent in the CIS. With many markets
already privatized, privatization activity has slowed over
the past few years, especially following the economic
downturn.

Separate telecom/ICT regulators

Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Regulatory Database.

So only a handful of privatizations were in the pipeline
in 2010 in such countries as Benin, Botswana, and
the Comoros. In Zambia, the government sold 75 per
cent of its State-owned incumbent operator, Zambia
Telecommunications (ZAMTEL), to the Libyan Lap Green
Networks for USD 257 million. The government retained
a 25 per cent stake in the company.

Opening up the ICT sector to foreign investment is
a way of bringing more players into the market. More
than three-quarters of countries worldwide have little
or no restriction on foreign investment in their national
ICT market.

Regulatory reform

Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2010–2011
reveals an increasingly robust yet complex regulatory
landscape which has emerged in response to the huge
influence ICT now have on the shape and growth of
other economic sectors.

As markets become increasingly competitive, regulators
have to balance the need for targeted regulation
to prevent market distortion with the need to allow
market forces to operate.

The pace of convergence and integration of ubiquitous
networks requires policy-makers and regulators to
adapt their institutional structures and mandates, and
to adopt innovative regulatory tools and best practices.

At the beginning of 2011, separate regulators had
been established in more than 80 per cent of countries,
totalling 158 regulators worldwide, up from 106 a decade
ago. The region with the highest percentage of
regulators (relative to the total number of countries in
each region) is Africa with 93 per cent, followed by the
Americas with 91 per cent, Europe with 88 per cent,
Asia-Pacific 73 per cent, the Arab States 71 per cent and
the CIS with 50 per cent.

Countries with separate regulators have adopted
different institutional and organizational structures
to adapt to the fast-changing ICT environment. While
the main trend in most regions has been to establish
a sector-specific regulator, some countries have moved
towards merging pre-existing separate regulatory authorities
into a converged regulator, while others have
expanded the mandate of the regulator to include
posts, information technology, broadcasting content, or
spectrum management.

Mandate of the regulator in 2010

Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Regulatory Database.

Several countries in the Americas, Europe and
Africa have established multi-sector agencies, either
when sector reforms were initiated or after their markets
reached a certain level of maturity. In these cases,
countries have merged pre-existing separate regulators
of public utilities to oversee, for example, the telecommunications,
postal, electricity, gas and railway sectors.

In several jurisdictions regulators are now responsible
for regulation beyond their traditional core activities.
These traditional functions consist of: regulating access
to telecommunication/ICT infrastructure and services,
through licensing; managing scarce resources such as
spectrum and numbering resources; dealing with interconnection
issues; setting and enforcing quality of service
standards; and managing universal access support
programmes.

In 2010, 16 per cent of regulators had responsibility
for broadcasting content, sometimes sharing that
responsibility with another ministry. While Internet content
is unregulated in more than 44 per cent of countries
worldwide, it is within the mandate of around 13 per
cent of telecommunication/ICT regulators. Information
technology is included in the mandate of 30 per cent of
regulators, a responsibility that is shared in 12 per cent
of cases.

More than 60 countries worldwide had adopted legislation
on cybersecurity by 2010. Europe has the highest
percentage, with 38 per cent of countries adopting
such legislation, followed by the Americas at 20 per
cent and Africa at 13 per cent. The degree of involvement
varies from one regulator to another, depending
on national legislation.

At least 13 regulators throughout the world are involved
in matters related to climate change. In Kenya,
for example, licence conditions require licensees to ensure
that systems do not cause environmental hazards.

Flexibility and autonomy

Regulators need flexibility to adapt to the fast-changing
environment, to foster ICT development and
maintain the attractiveness of their national markets.
They also need flexibility to determine the internal structure
of their organization, recruit skilled staff, and retain
and train staff to adapt to the needs of their mandates.

With regard to decision-making, 86 per cent of
regulators worldwide reported being autonomous.
Decisions taken by the remaining 14 per cent of regulators
are generally approved by the sector ministry, and
sometimes also by the Head of State or other governmental
body. Having more than one source of funding
and the ability to manage those funds reinforces regulators
autonomy vis-à-vis government and industry.

The key role of broadband

The promotion of broadband access is a key policy
and regulatory issue today.

Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2010–2011
contends that broadband access is no longer a luxury,
but a necessity that will be crucial to every country’s
economic, social, and political growth. It highlights
the need for proactive national broadband planning by
every government to help achieve the United Nations
Millennium Development Goals by 2015.

Already, some 70 governments have adopted a national
policy, strategy or plan to promote broadband.
Several developed countries have done so as part of
their economic recovery plans in the wake of the global
economic downturn to ensure the deployment of highcost
broadband networks and to stimulate employment.
Other countries have promoted broadband as
part of their broader strategy to develop the information
society and to extend universal access to ICT. Onefi
fth of ITU Member States have included broadband as
part of universal access policy.

* All articles in this section (http://www.itu.int/net/itunews/issues/2011/03/12.aspx) are extracts adapted from Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2010–2011: Enabling Tomorrow’s Digital World. The report was prepared by a team led by Nancy Sundberg, Youlia
Lozanova and Makthar Fall of the Regulatory and Market Environment Division of ITU’s Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT). ICT statistics used in these articles are from the ICT Data and Statistics Division of
ITU/BDT, unless stated otherwise. The report can be bought from the ITU website at: www.itu.int/pub/D-REGTTR.12-2010/i>