lundi 30 juin 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

A level 2 was issued for north-eastern Spain and South-western France mainly due to large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 2 was issued for north-western parts of Russia mainly due to large hail and severe wind gusts as well as for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for central Ukraine mainly due to severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for the northern and eastern Alps mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A broad trough is covering most parts of Europe. One branch of the trough is influencing Eastern Europe. Its axis is orientated from the Baltic States all the way to the western parts of the Black Sea. With a westerly component rather cool air masses are advected into Central, and Eastern as well as Northern Europe. Downstream of the trough axis, hot and humid air masses are advected with a southerly flow into the easternmost parts of Europe as well as Western Russia.

The second branch of the broad trough is influencing Western Europe. During the forecast period the southern part of the positively tilted trough cuts of near the Bay of Biscay. On the downstream axis of the cut of low warm and humid air masses are advected to the north, influencing most parts of Southern Europe (Eastern Spain, Southern France, Italy and the Balkan Peninsula). On the other hand, over Portugal, Western Spain and the British Isles rather cool air masses are active. Both air masses are separated by a quasi-stationary surface cold front.

The ridge between both branches of the broad trough is quite shallow showing only slight anticylonical curvature.