Gas Transit Through Turkey to Raise Its Status as Part of Energy and Economic Co-operation

9 february 2017
| IA REGNUM

If Turkey is able to materialize its ambitious plans and become a large regional energy hub, primarily gas hub, the republic will considerably increase its bargaining power as part of energy and economic cooperation with all stakeholders. Both the European Union, the ultimate consumer of energy resources, and their suppliers. Those who have already lost or will lose any alternative to the Turkish route are most affected. This opinion was shared by Oleg Kolobov, an expert of the Analytical Center, with a reporter of REGNUM News Agency.

Oleg KolobovDepartment for Fuel and Energy Sector

“As for Europe, any alternatives to transit through the
territory of Turkey for southern gas projects have, virtually, disappeared
after Russia refused to implement the project for construction of the South
Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Bulgaria in favor of the Russian-Turkish gas
pipeline,” the expert said.

At the same time, the question is how Turkey's ambitious
energy plans can affect Russia in economic and political dimensions. In Mr.
Kolobov's opinion, to Russia as well as other gas suppliers to the EU, transit
through Turkey will mean greater bargaining power of the Turkish side as part
of solving gas and related energy and economic issues.

Furthermore, if Moscow refuses to transit its gas to the
European Union through Ukraine after 2019, then the transit role of Turkey for
Russia will, no doubt, grow. This is about the implementation of
Turkish Stream project, which is still limited to the second line with a
capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters per year. In turn, the gas pipeline
construction, the analyst says, directly depends on the political and economic
situation in Europe, as well as development of the relevant gas infrastructure
in the Balkans.

“Most of the Russian gas supplies to Europe will be
transported via gas pipelines through Belarus, as well as the first and second
(under construction) phases of the North Stream gas pipeline with the aggregate
capacity of about 150 billion cubic meters. Moreover, a limited volume of the
Russian gas supplies through Turkey to Europe will allow avoiding dependence on
the political stability of a potential transit country which is often under
threat, as evidenced by massive protests in 2013, coup attempt in 2016, as well
as a challenging military and political situation in the region and a potential
conflict with the Kurdish minority,” Mr. Kolobov summarized.