To boldly go…

High flyer: we don’t always do the logical, rational thing because we fear the worst. Credit: Wikipedia

January 7, 2017

… and confidence will take you further.

There are plenty of reasons for thinking that the world has changed quite fundamentally in the past year. Election and referendum results went against poll predictions to bring in (apparently) new political orders and priorities in the United Kingdom and the United States, and with them the prospect of similar changes in several other countries. Even the way that news is reported seems to have crossed a line and “truth” no longer means what it used to.

None of this was expected and you may be wondering just what can be relied on to stay the same. But is it ever justified to expect the good times to go on indefinitely? And when things are bad, why shouldn’t they get even worse?

You can always analyse the course of events after they’ve happened and commentators, now looking back, describe the financial crash as “inevitable”, although very few saw that inevitability in advance. And, now, the backlash of the “forgotten” is beginning to be talked about as if it should have been foreseen and could have been deflected.

Once you know the outcome, the historical signs pointing to it are obvious while the irrelevant details that made prediction so difficult dissolve from memory. This makes history appear to be pre-destined.

Of course, we know that life isn’t really like that. Small incidents can have major consequences, rendering the system chaotic. And what we do right now can change the course of events.

Similarly, personal circumstances aren’t determined by their past trajectory. Although you might sometimes empathise with the old saying: “If I wanted to get to there I wouldn’t start from here”, what actually matters isn’t where you are, rather it’s the direction you choose to move in.

That’s a summary of the logical, rational argument for setting goals and making plans irrespective of past history and current disadvantages.

So why don’t we always (or ever) do the logical, rational thing?

The answer, as suggested above, is that we fear the worst. A positive outcome can’t be guaranteed, so we don’t take the action that’s needed. Usually, and ironically, this makes the feared outcome much more likely to occur.

What you need in order to move, in what you know to be the right direction, is confidence.

So, are we talking about a blind faith that everything will turn out for the best? Well, that’s not quite what confidence is. It isn’t the same as believing that you’re infallible and that everything you attempt will be successful. “Confidence” accepts that the outcome is always uncertain but your actions can dramatically affect the odds.

For example, Heather was a seemingly successful woman with a Master’s degree in management studies working in local government. She was ambitious and looking for the next career step. But she told me that she “lacked confidence in interviews” so couldn’t progress. It turned out that she felt a need to be accepted and validated by others and didn’t know how to balance this with the demands of managing a team. Consequently, she doubted her ability to do the higher level job and expected the interviewers to see this. She imagined herself rejected before the interview even started.

Recognising that she would grow into the management role, and therefore didn’t need to be fully equipped for it yet, she was able to focus on the details of her actual performance in the interview: what to say and how to say it. And, when she constructed a mental image of the panel members smiling and nodding their approval, she felt confident. At the same time she accepted that she still might not get the job, but was able to perform as if success were certain.

As you make your plans for the coming year, you may be taking stock of your resources and perhaps feeling that you haven’t got everything you need. But you can work round the lack of most things as long as you have the ability to move forward in the face of uncertainty. It’s the critical skill – and always will be.

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15