Well may I introduce my self: I am a 50 years old man and been trading futures markets something about 10 years now. I do this for living. I have allways NOT been very interested in about roulette because of it's house edge nature and "pure randomness".

But during the years I have been moving my own futures trading strategies more and more into a very short term (intraday) trading which does not care the direction or any explanations/resons but the price action itself and being the most important things the management and execution. My strategies are 100% technical analyses from the pure price action. No traditional trading indicators. I call my current strategy (and it's variations) as a go with the flow strategy (GWTF).

This transition has led me to more and more into a situation where I have to survive in "random kind" of environments. I currently see and understand there is very much common between short term trading in financial markets and the roulette. My interest for the roulette got a big step ahead some times ago when I understood there really has no "slippage" in roulette and the commissions (house edge 2,8% or 10% method in RNG) are in fact quite low compared to the financial market scalping.

I understand some of the problems what the succesfull roulette player will face which does not exists (or not at the same level) in trading on financial markets.

I am also a very experienced programmer (over 30 years of experience) from very low level stuff like embedded register level applications (microcontrollers, microprosessors, assembly language etc.) where you R&D your own bios and operating systems up to the database systems in large scale. Lot of projects done during my active years in that field.

---

I set up this thread to bring up things which "normal" short term trader from financial markets may face while trying to trade roulette by the rules and analysis done on the other side. Thread where we can discuss things without developing any specific system or strategy. We can do this on the more appropriate areas on this site.

First of all I have to say that I see the main difference between these areas are

a) price has a memoryb) price moves because of the people

There is lot of talk in the net about the trading it is a random walk and cannot be traded by the technical analysis. I am not going to go into that debate I just say I am a living example YOU CAN do not listen the bs what the professors and other important people are trying to tell you. The case is just they did not succeed and this is why they try to prove the cause of something else (randomness) than they self :D

Now they say I am succesfull because I have a skill. This is very true. You need a lot of exercise (years) and self control to become something. It is the very same in any profession. Trading is not an exception in this. And every experienced trader knows the end game is you in the mirror. Period.

Trading is a mental war 80% (which has the main influence for your execution) then comes money and position management and after these important things far behind comes those Setups.

After all I went a little a bit for the way of that debate and did a small comparison between the outcomes from the roulette table and EUR/USD (EuroFx futures at CME) currency pair.

They say the real randomness must produce a solid noise. Here is an example what I did from the 1 million spins data found in this site. I did a small C# app which converted those spins into a bitmap (idean took from random.org, thanks Irish guys, Go McGregor Go !). Every white dot tells us how well we hit odd numbers:

(btw. I hope these picutres can be seen in their original sizes without any zoom in or out)

As you can clearly see we are no more talking about randomness in this picture (at the level as the previous example). There is a clear difference between these pictures. I say: memory and people came into the game.

---

So why I am telling this for you is that I see we cannot copy technical analysis 1:1 from the financial markets when we are going to sit at roulette table. The supply/demand does not work here. Trendlines or horizontal support/resistance should be worthless. No buying or selling pressure. You cannot read the roulette "market" by that way. This is my first impressions in this field BUT MY MIND IS STILL OPEN AND THINGS CAN CHANGE.

The question is can the technical analysis and trading mentality from financial markets work at least in some level here at the roulette table. This is the goal in my journey here.

I am just at the beginning on my career in roulette tables (hobby) so please for give me my mistakes and some level ignorance but I will improve. It is a sure thing !

I agree, there is clearly a difference between the two pictures and btw, that is pure genius, THANK YOU!

Ok, here is what we in roulette have going for us where trading has people buying and selling:

Roulette is governed by the rules of true random which means that the results according to equal chances MUST BE UPHELD. This is why we will probably never see in our lifetimes 5 of a single number appearing in a row, nor are we likely to ever see 26 reds or black (or any other combination of EC's) in a row.

Our struggle is to find a way of detecting a pattern that is accessible using this law of Equal Chances LimitationTM so that we can bet it and win without having $1M in bankroll or hitting the table limits.

I guess the questions would be:

1) Why should trading symbology (charting) be able to help us find these exploitable patterns?1a) And how?

This is where our AP friends' understanding of wheel bias comes in. The chances of a number repeating successively 5 times is greater than 1q:1; I personally suspect wheel bias to be the culprit but I guess it doesn't matter, what matters is that true random has practical limits and those practical limits are the driving force of roulette instead of people buying and selling.

The reason why NONE OF US see 5 in a row while playing is because of the force of Equal Chances LimitationTM

To the argument of EVENTUALLY YOUR PRACTICAL LIMIT WILL BE SURPASSED AND YOU WILL LOSE...

EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I reply:

1) You have no way of knowing that for certain2) There is no reason why my loss cannot be configured to a lower amount than all my gains3) The rarity of this once in a lifetime event should be taken into account

1) Why should trading symbology (charting) be able to help us find these exploitable patterns?1a) And how?

At this point I think the biggest advantage about charting could be the visualization. Large number of occurences can be understood much quicker and easier from something we can see by our own eyes than from pure numbers or thoughts. Of course we have to be aware those fallacy traps but anyway.

The 2nd question is of course the toughest one. Currently I research streaks/trends/clustering in randomness. I feel it is the way to go. Basically you do not know when the streak starts and how long it runs but what you know they will occur. This is what I try to understand better from the point of management and strstegy itself.

You're right that unlike trading, roulette has no psychological element, so it isn't true to say that "the trend is your friend", because an apparent trend can change at any time with no warning.

But also unlike trading, you can calculate the probabilities of runs and gaps, clusters etc, since roulette outcomes follow a definite pattern and are purely mechanical. This at least gives a certain objectivity to roulette. The use of technical indicators in trading can seem quite subjective (and has been criticized as such).

I think its easy to say that technical indicators are subjective (and some of them actually are!) but just like with candlestick trading, there are fundamental reasons behind the patterns; e.g. a narrow sideways channel, we bet the break because it indicates a real world event that has caught on with the stock/commodity holders.

But unfortunately, desipite this, I must agree that finding trends in the straightforward way simply doesn't work with roulette as evidenced by the graphics displayed in this post.

I still hold out hope for finding a counter-intuitive way of using technicals to our advantage...

(Zero hits are shown as negative bars in the bottom panel which shows the individual spinned numbers)(Each line represents the cumulative results of each spin)

This tells us how badly the house edge will hit us when the punter bets an EC bet (reds). See the white line (no house edge) and black line (with house edge). The difference during 3 days (1 spin = 50 seconds) was 68.5 units for the house. No question anymore what is the difference !

My opinion is that you can not take advantage out of 50/50 random bits.And the house edge is 1.35% with La Partage rule and a good reason why i play EC with succés.

My opinion is that you need to use Markow Chains or Sequential betting where the odds is different and not a 50/50 situatuon.I suggest you look into clustering or create some kind of Matrix where the odds and probability is different.

No one the last 300 years has succed using Red/Black patterns or waves into a winning method.Is time to think out of the box.

By these latest 2 posts I also introduced my development and backtesting platform which is Amibroker Pro. IMO the best retail side analysis and strategy development application for technical analysis. Very fast and has everything you will ever need. I've been using it since 2005.

My opinion is that you can not take advantage out of 50/50 random bits.And the house edge is 1.35% with La Partage rule and a good reason why i play EC with succés.

My opinion is that you need to use Markow Chains or Sequential betting where the odds is different and not a 50/50 situatuon.I suggest you look into clustering or create some kind of Matrix where the odds and probability is different.

No one the last 300 years has succed using Red/Black patterns or waves into a winning method.Is time to think out of the box.

You got me wrong.

That was NOT an example of a betting system or strategy. I was just talking about HOW THE VISUALIZATION by using the charts can help you to understand different kind of aspects of the thing you are researching. Many times the picture tells more than 1000 words :)

I saw this topic to worth to say because I do not see much charting here...

If some day I am able (hope so) to introduce you some kind of strategy or even a system I will do it in the other areas than "Casino Lounge".

Welcome to the forum tickseeker, and nice post. :) But also unlike trading, you can calculate the probabilities of runs and gaps, clusters etc, since roulette outcomes follow a definite pattern and are purely mechanical. This at least gives a certain objectivity to roulette. The use of technical indicators in trading can seem quite subjective (and has been criticized as such).

Thx and you are right. In trading (financial) you can calculate propabilities only for the past. There is no such a thing as propability in the same sense as it works in roulette or poker for example.

There are about a zillion reasons as to why what you're doing won't work.

First and foremost, each spin of the roulette wheel is an independent trial. In other words the same number pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, therefore the odds do not change from one spin to the next. There is no comparison to trading stocks.

There are about a zillion reasons as to why what you're doing won't work.

First and foremost, each spin of the roulette wheel is an independent trial. In other words the same number pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, therefore the odds do not change from one spin to the next. There is no comparison to trading stocks.

Please read more carefully my posts until reply.

And what comes to the question about the similarities between futures/stocks trading and roulette yes of course they are 2 different world. I understand very well the basics of the roulette table and it's propabilities. I come from very short term trading so believe or not there is similiarities between thes two things and this is why I will give a change for this.

Technical analysis is a very wide concept and I see there is many areas where it should give you a great help. You just should not use these tools by the same way as you do for example in trading side.

By these latest 2 posts I also introduced my development and backtesting platform which is Amibroker Pro. IMO the best retail side analysis and strategy development application for technical analysis. Very fast and has everything you will ever need. I've been using it since 2005.

Are you actually plugging in true payouts and losses via numbers 0-36 or are you simulating "results" in some other manner?

Are you actually plugging in true payouts and losses via numbers 0-36 or are you simulating "results" in some other manner?

Sorry I had to ask...

The spins data is from the file found in this site (1 million spins from real roulette table if I remember right). The noise map shows the data should be quite ok.

Lines on those charts are calculated by the roulette rules spin by spin (cumulative) using the normal payout rules. So the trends are telling you how (in units) the bet or group of bets are working for you and how they perform compared each other with different kind of betting system settings or versions.

Of course those posted charts where just stupid examples but there is no limit how complex betting system you want to test. I have a frame work (bunch of Amibroker scripts) where I can test strategies and systems easily so that everything can be viewed visually. Lot of optimization capabilities too IF needed.

Results should be quite real until I have managed to do a bug(s) into my scripts ;D

I think it is on the level where I can use it. I can also use it while betting (in realtime) to follow things are developing as expected. I have tested it couple of 100s spins and it looks quite stable. Easy to use too. But currently I am doing research side so will see in future how I will develop it more for live situations.

I decided to make my points here in this thread because I feel it is better to do so.

So let me explain a bit more why I am here.

The easy answer is I am currently on pause from trading activities because of christmas and new year change. Risks to get caught in high leveraged intraday positions while there is no normal quantities of buyers/sellers around to let me out of my s***ty position is too much risk for me (slippage risk). Also I do pauses every now and then. It is good for execution (mind).

But an another reason besides I have now time to do this is that in short term intraday trading what I do the trends and their durations are very much like random. This is mainly because I do not have an access to those algorithms (source codes) to see what and why they are doing what they are doing. I do not say this is 100% reason for those short term trends but lot of trends are generated by the algos made by people. And again remember I am talking about the very short term trading now.

So while trading I often do not have any idea why the price is going up or down giving me the situation very similar what I think is happening at roulette table. This leads my mind into a question: If I am able to generate consistent profits from trading random (from my point of view) short term intraday trends why it does not work at the roulette table too ?

We all very well know that trends/streaks belongs to a randomness. They are a very tight part of if. We just have to remember that we do not know in advance when they occur and what will be their duration. The very same situation what happens in short term finance.

This is the purpose of my journey on here. To get an answer for this. I also think this real randomness will have a good effect for my trading because I will understand the randomeness better.

So this is a hobby for me and there is another reason too why I do not take this extra very serious is that even If some day I am able to trade roulette streaks is there any casino who will accept me to do it very long ? I do not have a change to start to go around the real casinos physically so I am forced to use Live internet casions where they will exactly know who I really am and can profile me as a Banana Boy (banned).

In finance you do not have to think this kind of problems. No matter did you just make half a million profits in just 1 trade or not. Also it is clear that roulette cannot scale up much.

This was some thoughts about the situation from the trader at the roulette table.

Tick

btw. Pls do not get me wrong. Trends in short term trading is only one part of it. There I can trade many other patterns which does not have any meaning here. This is why I am talking about trends only.

tickseeker ask Kav for premission to join the special section. There is a topic that describe how you can measuring Red/Black using STDS. That way you can see how the distribution grow stroner or weaker or hovering around average. Very good benchmark if you look for Tools to measuring variance and fluctation. Nice for develop Entering Point and Exit Points. Also good to understand how the Bell Curve unfold.

I'm following this topic with great interest and I'm sure it will evolve in interesting ways over time. I just want to post a link to its "sister topic" for reference:Technical analysis for roulette (https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=1251.0)

There are similarities, both are full of players who put a lot of work, that does not really lead to anything sensible sustainable, that is a lucky move will be used and refined. A (big) difference is that markets can play "Follow the Leader" and self-fulfilled its prophecies. This has been well rarely seeing roulette wheels do.

The methods can generate dangerous losses in both roulette and the trading.

I decided to make my points here in this thread because I feel it is better to do so.

So let me explain a bit more why I am here.

The easy answer is I am currently on pause from trading activities because of christmas and new year change. Risks to get caught in high leveraged intraday positions while there is no normal quantities of buyers/sellers around to let me out of my s***ty position is too much risk for me (slippage risk). Also I do pauses every now and then. It is good for execution (mind).

But an another reason besides I have now time to do this is that in short term intraday trading what I do the trends and their durations are very much like random. This is mainly because I do not have an access to those algorithms (source codes) to see what and why they are doing what they are doing. I do not say this is 100% reason for those short term trends but lot of trends are generated by the algos made by people. And again remember I am talking about the very short term trading now.

So while trading I often do not have any idea why the price is going up or down giving me the situation very similar what I think is happening at roulette table. This leads my mind into a question: If I am able to generate consistent profits from trading random (from my point of view) short term intraday trends why it does not work at the roulette table too ?

We all very well know that trends/streaks belongs to a randomness. They are a very tight part of if. We just have to remember that we do not know in advance when they occur and what will be their duration. The very same situation what happens in short term finance.

This is the purpose of my journey on here. To get an answer for this. I also think this real randomness will have a good effect for my trading because I will understand the randomeness better.

So this is a hobby for me and there is another reason too why I do not take this extra very serious is that even If some day I am able to trade roulette streaks is there any casino who will accept me to do it very long ? I do not have a change to start to go around the real casinos physically so I am forced to use Live internet casions where they will exactly know who I really am and can profile me as a Banana Boy (banned).

In finance you do not have to think this kind of problems. No matter did you just make half a million profits in just 1 trade or not. Also it is clear that roulette cannot scale up much.

This was some thoughts about the situation from the trader at the roulette table.

Tick

btw. Pls do not get me wrong. Trends in short term trading is only one part of it. There I can trade many other patterns which does not have any meaning here. This is why I am talking about trends only.

Meh. You're hallucinating. Remember the white noise pictures you posted? There is no difference between the micro and the macro -- day trading is not random like roulette; you proved that!

Meh. You're hallucinating. Remember the white noise pictures you posted? There is no difference between the micro and the macro -- day trading is not random like roulette; you proved that!

Hallucinating. Haha :D . That was good one !

Well did you see my fineprint (btw) ?

I am talking about very short term trends which are similar here and there. There is a lot more of technical stuff which does not work here because the lack of human influence. This is what you can see from those noise pictures.

That was the case hope you got it now.

EditI've found some very interesting stuff here with trends. Lot of work to do !

I've found some very interesting stuff here with trends. Lot of work to do !

Hey tickseeker,I'm very glad you found useful stuff here. Would you care to share some links to the posts or topics you found interesting. There is a lot of stuff here and it can easily be lost in the ocean of topics. it is very useful to reference relevant posts.

I've found some very interesting stuff here with trends. Lot of work to do !

Hey tickseeker,I'm very glad you found useful stuff here. Would you care to share some links to the posts or topics you found interesting. There is a lot of stuff here and it can easily be lost in the ocean of topics. it is very useful to reference relevant posts.

Thanks

Sorry I mean: Here = at roulette table = roulette numbers.

As said these short streaks which can be found in random roulette numbers are so close to tick-by-tick data from many trading instruments that it will be a small miracle if these numbers cannot be traded. But it will not be an easy task. Will need lot of skill to succeed.

One very important thing here is that in RND there is NO SLIPPAGE. This is very VERY EXREMELY VERY important thing while scalping short term which makes me very excited. Another thing is that you have decade time to do your next move between the new data points. In dax movement is often 1/1000 second so impossible to trade manually. And now we are talking tick data here.

lol ikr? I actually suspected for a moment that you switched the labels!

Hehe. It's fallacy. If I remember right it was Steven Jobbs who did a random song plays for his iPod and it was based on "real" random selection. And as we know in random there can be very long streaks of the same. Eventually he had to change the algorithm to output more "random" and people were satisfied :D

Ya but even though I can study the chart for an hour before each tick & I will get 100% of any monetary amount I wish upon "exiting", NOTHING can substitute for a significant decrease in trend reversals due to favorable & predicatble "market forces".

Btw. I got ready my extensions for the platform so I can now trade systems too. I searched this site for some system which is easy to implement and found that Roman Cohort. I am not going to trade these kind of systems so this was just an example to test these extensions.

Here is the output of the cumulative outcome:

(https://www.roulettelife.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Falgoboys.com%2Fdata%2Fcharts%2Fts3690.jpg&hash=06888c80364630796515a267125b7a55)(Y-axis is Units)