The Wrong Political Calculus

Afghanistan is suffering the worst of form of neighborhood with Pakistan in the history of diplomatic relation. The recent egregious attack on Sardar Mohammad Dawood Khan Hospital in the heartland which took the life of 50 civilians and injured more dozens in cold-blood is gut-wrenching and an awakening call for the Kabul Government and the global allies in the war against terrorism to re-engineer their war strategy in Afghanistan.

The Pakistani government is playing the game of tit-for-tat killing for years who thinks that Indian RAW together with NDS is simmering violence in Pakistan. Just an hour later, after the suicide attacker killed 88 people in Lalshah Baz Qalandar shrine in Sindh province, Pakistan disregarded all the neighborhood rights with Afghanistan and shut the door on the face of Afghan passengers crossed Borders. Though the door left (ajar) Seventh and Eight March to let the people at the two sides reach their destination; but Afghans already bore heavily brunt economically and socially.

The Pakistani government also shelled barrage number of rockets cross-bordered in the Konar province accusing Afghan government for harboring Tahrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and denounced cooperative agreement already inked between the two governments.

On the other hand, the deterioration of Afghan security conundrum has been Longley laid on the Pakistan’s shoulder for mobilizing Afghan war and equipping versatile radical activists against Afghan government, where Pakistan is displeased by close Indian-Afghans ties. It is claimed that RAW is blazing Pakistan’s ongoing turbulence using the Afghan’s land, and beefing-up Baloch Freedom Campaign which has not been corroborated but civilians are dying painfully for the last 14 years.

Pakistan is blamed for the Afghanistan’s grave insecurity, social disarray, and economic stagnation, and the Pakistan sporadic incidents are linked up with the Afghan Intelligence Department’s sneaky conspiracy. The blame game is going speedily and the hopes for healthy relation fade-away every day.

Afghanistan is like hell-on-wheels which hardly breathe but surely survive. Afghans are passing the stern test of resistance and rejuvenation, and Pakistan is implementing its wrong-headed policy. Pakistan is tripped-up in the political calculus and using too many sticks and less carrots in the deals with Afghan government. Shutting borders against Afghanistan where ordinary life is largely contingent on Pakistan goods was the saddest phenomenon ever.

Of course, hardships always bring opportunities and open new doors. The Afghan government is using the same formula to find alternatives both in trade and larger economic schemes, other than tied-up with Pakistan’s transit routes. Many strategic level efforts are already underway in Kabul to cut the deep Afghans’ dependency on Pakistan, and therefore, turning face toward Central Asian Countries, including Chabahar with Iran and India at the larger scale.

The Afghan nation is testing a new self-reliance journey which is pinching for the time but not insurmountable. It will take long years, but at the end, the movement will make great impact on the Afghans’ future. Afghanistan will survive at any cost with the help of newly emerged strategic partners, but Pakistan might be sadly isolated, internationally tarnished and might be, crippled at the end ran if don’t change the calculus.

China is trying swap the United States in term of economic support to Pakistan and Russia is helping in joint military maneuvers. The 20 billion dollars’ investment of china in FATA of Pakistan could be a makeshift, but this can never heal the wounds that will happen in the absence of the long-time strategic partners to Pakistan, such as America.

The recent talk between Qamar Jawed Bajwa, the Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff, and Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan was another try to play-down the urgency for Afghanistan’s relation and a plan to diverge economic and political ties toward Iran, instead Kabul’s government. This Pakistan’s erratic stances can be assumed as a temporary trick to find new partners or enforce old fledgling relation, but this can never be wise to lose old friends and stay frenemy with many old players.

On the other hand, Pakistan has been largely maligned in the recent years to turn blind eyes toward strong-footed warriors engaged in Afghanistan. Such a tarnishing image can de-value the Pakistani government in the international market of diplomacy and will be hard to compensate the lost prestige in the coming near years.

Now, the smarter move for Pakistan should be a rethought on their strategy which can build relation and solidify control in both countries. The broken diplomatic ties with Afghanistan must be resolved through joint talks and understandings. A putative stance should be taken against all type of good and bad warriors who escalate violence at both sides of the border. The sound economic relation should continue smooth so the current 2.5 billion dollars’ joint trade boost to $5 billion or even greater amount, and finally, the fanfare of mass-casualties of innocent civilians should not be a part of depressing strategy against governments to surrender unconditionally, or might be, the two nations take arm inevitably against each other and humans at both sides suffer the heaviest pain ever.

One factor of the Afghan conflict is the Afghan government's failure to maintain a balance in its foreign policy. The imbalanced foreign policies of governments have paved the ground for Afghanistan to turn into a battlefield of proxy wars.