Beck Uncovers The Seventh "Archduke Ferdinand Moment" In Four Years

Glenn Beck recently promoted the turmoil unfolding in Egypt as the "Archduke Ferdinand moment" he claims he has been warning about for years, warning that it could lead to a "Muslim caliphate" and a Marxist "insurrection." This is at least the seventh different "Archduke Ferdinand moment" Beck has identified in the past four years.

Beck Warns Of Marxists And Muslims "Combin[ing]" In An "Archduke Ferdinand Moment"

Beck Says Tunisia Is The "Archduke Ferdinand Moment I've Been Telling You About." On the January 31, 2011, edition of his Fox News show, Glenn Beck purported to illustrate on a map the "coming insurrection":

Let me just take you through this map. I want to show you the coming insurrection.

Remember, we started over here with France, and England, and Italy, and Greece, all on fire, right? We have been telling you about the coming insurrection that is happening all in Europe, all across Europe. They've been protesting out in the streets and setting things on fire, and destroying things and it's all laid out in The Coming Insurrection.

I have told you that this is a global movement. Could you play this out with me and just humor me for a second?

Here we have Egypt. It started in Tunisia. Tunisia, then leapfrogged Libya and went right over here to Egypt.

But they're starting -- the fires are starting here as well. But we see them here. This is already in revolution and flipped.

This is in revolution. I want you to look where Israel is -- right here. And, Israel -- the Gaza Strip -- is on fire. Do you have any idea, this strait, how much commerce is done through here?

You also have this little area -- all the oil from the UAE, everything, flows here. This is Iran.

Play this out with me.

So, it jumps from here, starts fire here and here. Then, if the Muslim Brotherhood and the radicals would take over, like they did in 1979 -- I'll show you in a minute, it's exactly what happened. Oh, no, this is all moderate stuff.

If it happens over here, then we not only have a problem with Israel, but Saudi Arabia is in trouble, because remember, Saudi Arabia is also not a friendly place. Riots will start here. Iraq will be squeezed. Syria, Jordan will fall.

Who will stand with the United States? Who will stand with Israel? Because this is Sunni and this Shiite. You have Hamas, Hamas, and Hezbollah. Hezbollah has got to cause more chaos here. They will clearly go into Iraq where we are and the squeeze begins.

This will be on fire. This is already on fire. This is on fire. This is on fire. And it's riots all along.

So, now, you have the entire Middle East being pushed by Iran and Saudi Arabia, basically, if it remains. They'll drag these guys out at any time and kill them all. These guys have to be freaking out.

What's next to Tunisia? Algeria -- also on fire now. The riots are starting here.

Morocco is on fire. What's across from Morocco? Spain, connected to France and Germany and Italy, also on fire. And Greece, also on fire, which brings you right back here to Turkey.

The entire Mediterranean is on fire. More than that, it's not just the surrounding countries of the Mediterranean; it also spreads up here -- you have the U.K. and Ireland already with riots in the street. You have Russia with a bombing.

Well, now, let's see -- let's play this through. What do you think happens? These two collide. They quite honestly, they could make us collapse financially -- just these two colliding. Let alone, if this is on fire as well -- are our forces there? What do we do?

This is colliding. We're pouring all of our money into here and here and trying to keep things stable. China pushes this direction. Here's China pushes this direction, just says knock it off, guys. These guys are pushing this direction; this is all pushing up into the middle, into the Mediterranean, into Spain.

This becomes a caliphate. This becomes China. This becomes a Muslim caliphate. If they think Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Libya, possibly Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, are now some sort of a Muslim caliphate, if anyone begins to think that that is a chance, what happens to the overwhelming radical population of the U.K., of radical Islamisists [sic]? What happens? Do they just sit around on their hand or do they see an opportunity?

When you take the Marxists and you combine them with the radical from Islam, when you combine those two forces, which is exactly -- we'll show you this week -- what is happening here, the whole world starts to implode. Does Russia push across this way? And what do we do?

This is not just happenstance. This is not just poor people mad at rich people. This is coordinated. Tunisia was the beginning.

I think there is a chance that Tunisia is our Archduke Ferdinand moment that I've been telling you about, warning that it would start in some place that wouldn't look like anything, and most of us wouldn't understand it.

He was the guy assassinated in Sarajevo, June 1914. A month later, Austria and Hungary declared war against Serbia and the rest is called World War I. I believe a snowball is being formed, and it is starting to roll.

There are too many people that want to have their dream world -- not going to be able to catch it. But you can at least prepare to not get caught in the snowball. I'm going to show you in a minute how this isn't Berlin. This is Iran, 1979. [Fox News, Glenn Beck, 1/31/11, emphasis added]

Later that night, Beck claimed Egypt is actually the "Archduke Ferdinand moment":

O'REILLY: In the "At Your Beck and Call Segment" tonight, the G-man spent his entire program this afternoon analyzing the situation in Egypt. Here he is to bring us up to date.

So, you are not happy about any of this, right?

BECK: No, I think we're actually possibly the witnessing Archduke Ferdinand moment. Archduke Ferdinand was the guy who was killed -- shot, a few months later started the First World War. I think we're in real danger. [Fox News, The O'Reilly Factor, 1/31/11, via Nexis]

Beck's Previous "Archduke Ferdinand Moments"

Beck: "I Fear An Archduke Ferdinand Moment, That We're Close To One With Iran." In January 2007, Beck warned that the United States was "close" to an "Archduke Ferdinand Moment" with Iran:

BECK: Do you believe that we and the Saudis are putting pressure on Iran by the collapse of the oil prices?

SEN. RON WYDEN (D-OR): I would say that I still think we need to have a whole host of countries, and particularly the European countries and others, helping us deal with Iran. We need to have a concerted effort, in terms of economic pressure.

We just learned, for example, this weekend that Royal Dutch Shell is looking at a multibillion-dollar investment that could help the Iranians. So we need a full-court press right now to deal with this very serious challenge from Iran.

BECK: How are you going to be able to do that? You can`t get Europe to agree on that. You`ve got Russia who is arming these people. Russia, not our friends by any stretch of the imagination. How are you going to get them involved?

WYDEN: What we`re going to have to do is show Europe, Russia, a number of these other countries why they, too, will be at risk with these kinds of policies. They don`t seem to be getting the message, because they somehow think that making money today is what is really going to be in their interests.

We`re trying to make the case that the whole world is at risk when you have people like the Iranians in a position to secure these very dangerous nuclear weapons.

BECK: You know, real quick, we`ve only got a couple seconds left. I fear an Archduke Ferdinand moment, that we`re close to one with Iran, that somehow or another something is going to happen and set the whole thing on fire. Do you think we`re close to that?

WYDEN: Well, frankly, there`s a tiny, tiny bit of positive news. You look, for example, at those elections in Iran in the middle of December. I get the sense that the person on the street in Iran is getting pretty dissatisfied with their government. Let`s keep the economic pressure on, Glenn.

BECK: I`m with you on that. Thank you very much. [HLN, Glenn Beck, 1/30/07, via Nexis]

Beck: "Mexico, Spinning Out Of Control ... Could Be The Linchpin" In The "Archduke Ferdinand Moment." In January 2009, Beck said that Mexico's economy "could" "possibly be the key" in the "collapse" of the United States:

And -- something else that nobody else is talking about: Mexico, spinning out of control. I believe it could, could be the linchpin in this whole mess, which I'll explain in just a minute, but what does this all add up to? What does it look like? Have you stopped looking at the trees and look at the forest? Collapse -- it looks like this for the United States when the Soviet Union collapsed and everybody said, "Oh, that can't happen."

Now, why is Mexico in this? Why could they possibly be the key? Well, I've been looking for an Archduke Ferdinand moment, you know, that started World War I, something that doesn't seem like big enough to cause anything huge but it ends up doing it.

The biggest economic factor in Mexico is oil and Mexico needs it at $70 a barrel to balance its budget. Last I checked, oil was about $40 a barrel. They are luckily locked into a $70 a barrel rate until the end of the year. But if oil has to be sold at today's prices, almost 20 percent of all of the money for the government would disappear.

The second biggest factor: remittances. That's people sending back money from our country down to Mexico. They're down now $1 billion.

And the third factor is tourism. Have you gone down there? Are you a little freaked out by the kidnappings and beheadings? This is down dramatically. They've seen 580,000 fewer tourists than they were a year ago in just the seven largest cities, which could add up to hundreds of millions of dollars in losses.

Can't you just hear people in Washington say now, "Mexico is too big to fail; we've got to bail them out"? Oh, it's coming, Jack. Who else besides the United States would bail them out?

You need to step outside of yourself for just a second and think about recent history. Right after 9/11, Osama bin Laden said, and I'm paraphrasing here, "It would be much easier crushing the Americans than it was taking down the Soviets." When I first read this, I thought -- you arrogant, are you kidding me, you're taking credit for the collapse of the Soviet Union? That was, by the way, was us, the United States of America along with Ronald Reagan.

Then I thought about it for a while. Not really. Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher were there, but when you really look at it, it was the U.S. putting economic pressure on the Soviet Union and hold their feet to the fire. Meanwhile, the pope working with Reagan was sewing seeds of discontent inside the country so the people would turn on each other and rip themselves apart from the inside. Then there is Osama bin Laden, funded by us, keeping the Soviets in a war in Afghanistan that they couldn't afford, and then we just kept having them build up arms and spend more money and spend more money.

Does any of this sound familiar to you? What happened there in the Soviet Union is happening to us and we're so darn arrogant that we think, "Oh, please, this is America, we could never collapse." Could we please at least consider the possibility that we might be bleeding to death, and nobody is walking in with a tourniquet or even calling for one?

Is Mexico the final straw that will make the United States collapse? I don't know. Maybe, maybe not. It's going to be something small in the end though that will break the camel's back. [Fox News, Glenn Beck, 1/29/09, via Nexis]

Beck: I Am "Looking For That Archduke Ferdinand Moment" And "I Think The Final Straw That Could Break Our Camel's Back Could Be The Collapse Of Mexico." In February 2009, Beck said Mexico could "collapse" and refugees could "reclaim" California and Texas:

To be honest with you, this is going to be a difficult pick for me for a couple of reasons. First, I'm going to share something with you that is just a gut feeling and something that has been bothering me and is starting to come together in my head. It all could be B.S., quite honestly but I'm so tired of the experts and everyone telling me, oh no, that could never happen, only to find it does happen. I think everybody is looking at a box. They're looking at everything and saying you're thinking over here. Yeah, everybody needs to get out of that box. I know somebody in this audience is thinking out of the box. We are a country that is in real trouble. I've been talking about this perfect storm for a while. I've- looking for that Archduke Ferdinand moment. That Archduke Ferdinand was the guy who was assassinated in some country over in Europe that started World War I and if I would have told you know, back then hey, we're going to go to war over Archduke Ferdinand being assassinated, everybody would have said you're crazy. Yes, yes, maybe I am.

I think the final straw that could break our camel's back could be the collapse of Mexico. And I want to explain some of the factors on why I say that, and nobody is putting this together. Mexico is the 12th largest economy in the world. They are our third largest oil supplier. They are the second largest trade partner with us. OK, that's pretty heavy if they start to collapse. Drug-related crime is causing general unrest there in Mexico. There were 438 reported kidnappings last year. Many are Americans. More likely unreported and then there are beheadings, particularly those beheadings of police officers. They are starting to stir things up. You add to these factors the three-sided civil war that would happen if they would collapse.

Please consider this, as insane as it may be, because only with information will we not panic. Only with information will we know what to do and prepare for it. If Mexico collapses, is anybody thinking that there would be a rush of people trying to get out of a new narco state that would rush our border where there is no fence? So you have the border fence people versus the non-border fence people in a heated debate, kind of like what we have been, you know, where you're called a racist for just wanting a fence.

Now it's much, much worse. You'd also have the Hispanic versus the whites. There are Americans that are blamed for buying drugs down in Mexico, and you know what? Mexico, you're right. Part of this is our fault. We're buying drugs and you're living in the god forsaken conditions that those drug lords are creating, because we can't stop doing coke. We're not stopping the flow of guns into their country. That's what they're saying. And the Mexican versus the American front, the refugees that would flow into the country that might have the mind-set that this is American land. Have you heard that before-- I'm sorry, Mexican land. Have you heard that before? That they're going to reclaim California? They're going to reclaim Texas? That is just the seeds of discontent. If things would shake apart, are we the people that really can fight that? Are we the people that can be peaceful, are we the Americans that can stand arm in arm and welcome people on to our boat, but not panic or allow panic to spread to sink our lifeboat? There are too many things going on in Mexico that nobody is paying attention to, and we're going to, because I just have this gut feeling that this could be the final lightning bolt in the perfect storm. [Fox News, Glenn Beck, 2/03/09 via Nexis]

Beck Says North Korea Is "The Archduke Ferdinand Moment." In May 2010, on his radio program, Beck said: "Now we have North Korea. North Korea is the Archduke Ferdinand moment - it could be. It might be something that none of us have ever heard." [Premiere Radio Networks, The Glenn Beck Program, 5/25/10]

Beck Suggested European Debt Problems Could Be The "Archduke Ferdinand Moment." In May 2010, Beck said European debt problems were "like the Archduke Ferdinand started World War I":

If you want to survive, you have to look at things that are true and prepare. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

I don't want these things to happen. Who does? But we have to be willing to drop politics and just think as Americans. Democrat, independent, Republican, look out of that box because we're entering a new time. Things have changed.

This time period that we're in that we're entering now is a very small window. It happens every time in history. I call it the Archduke Ferdinand moment. And I talked -- I've been talking about this for years, but here it is -- a year ago, November 17th, 2008.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

BECK: I've been talking for five years about something I call the perfect storm. And I said, all of these things, financial problems, wars, you know, enemies within, enemies without, all of these things -- every single one of these things we've handled and this country can deal with. However, we have never dealt with all of them at the same time. And if two or three of them spiral out of control, I've been warning for five years: guys, we're in a different world. It is not the same.

We're -- I kept looking at the news this weekend and some of you would say to me, Glenn, what would happen if such-and-such? What would happen if this happened? What would happen if this happened? And I keep thinking to myself, Archduke Ferdinand. We are sitting on a tender box, and a spark or a match would make us burn like California. And it's not just us, it's the whole world. It is on the edge.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

BECK: OK. Now, I showed you this yesterday. This is from "The Washington Post." "One false move in Europe could set off global chain reaction." They said, "If -- and it remains an if -- trouble starts the trigger may well be obscure to the concerns of most Americans, a missed budget prediction by the Spanish government, the failure of Greece to hit a deficit reduction target, a drop in Ireland's economic output."

OK. You wouldn't even notice that stuff. It's like the Archduke Ferdinand started World War I. They shot him. Who knew this guy? Most people in the world didn't. [Fox News, Glenn Beck, 5/25/10, via Nexis]

Beck Said Gaza Flotilla May Be The "Archduke Ferdinand Moment" That "The World Is Headed Towards." In June 2010, Glenn Beck said on his radio show: "I want to talk to you about what happened over with the flotilla just off the coast of Israel. This is so incredibly disturbing, because the world is on edge. And I've told you for a while, we are looking for a Archduke Ferdinand moment. And that's what the world is headed towards. And I don't know if anybody else feels this, I don't think there's a single journalist that has a clue as to what they're doing and what they're talking about now. They don't know what is coming our way." [Premiere Radio Networks, The Glenn Beck Program, 6/01/10]

Beck Wonders If BP Oil Spill Was The "Archduke Ferdinand Moment." In June 2010, Beck claimed that "according to Communist Party USA," the BP oil spill was the "Archduke Ferdinand moment":

Welcome to THE GLENN BECK PROGRAM.

I talked to you on this program before about the Archduke Ferdinand moment. Here's what I've said in the past:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BECK: I've been talking about this perfect storm for a while and I've been looking for that Archduke Ferdinand moment. Archduke Ferdinand was the guy who was assassinated in some country over in Europe that started World War I. And if I have told you, you know, back then, "Hey, we're going to go to war over Archduke Ferdinand being assassinated," everybody would have said, "You're crazy." Yes. Yes, maybe I am.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BECK: Yes, maybe I am. I'm -- I'm not sure what ours is. But my sense is we're getting close no that moment that changes the world. Could it be the oil spill?

Tonight, I want to go back and look at the president's speech and what has been happening. I want to show you the perfect storm conditions and why I think we're moving closer to a historic global moment. And, by the way, I'm not saying that this is the moment.

Tonight, I'm going to show you the words -- not only of American celebrities but news people, and also American communist revolutionaries, who are now stepping to the plate to say this is the moment.

Coming up.

[...]

I want to end the show where we started today. I told you we could be heading towards an Archduke Ferdinand moment. Could this oil spill be part of that moment? Could it be that even the revolutionaries are waiting for this particular moment?

Well, according to the Communist Party USA, it is. In a talk, given by Raymond Lotta - he's a Marxist writer and communist scholar - communist scholar - that's redundant, "The capitalist oil spill is a system not fit to be the caretaker of the planet and the revolution that we need."

He is - he's talking about this in a speech that he just gave. Is there anybody in their right mind who believes that communism would serve or has served the planet as a better caretaker?

Yes, the youth that didn't grow up with communism and has never been taught what it is. To them, this sounds like the moment. Lotta cites the anger of the spill couple with the disillusionment of the government in general as their catalyst.

If you don't believe these people are serious, you need to take a look at the end of Mr. Lotta's speech. Here it is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAYMOND LOTTA, MARXIST WRITER: In building this struggle, we're building it according to the principles of the kind of world we want to live in. Think about that. The revolution is real and we have to take up this real battle.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BECK: OK. The revolution is real. And our children are ill-equipped because they've never been taught in school the horrors that we know. We'll continue to fill in those blanks all summer wrong. Make sure you and your family DVR this show every night.

This battle is real. And if we don't take up this battle and our books and learn, learn history and learn who some of the monsters were, well, the planet will find itself with some new caretakers. And then our children will have to learn the hard way. Back in a minute. [Fox News, Glenn Beck, 6/17/10, via Nexis]

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