The Tories have enjoyed an average net change of +4 points in opinion polls since May took over from David Cameron last month. On average, governments have plummeted to net ratings of -8 points at this stage in the electoral cycle (1975-2010). This means that the Conservatives are 12 points better off than the historical average.

Number Cruncher Politics

This statistic is unprecedented. As the chart shows, governments are expected to be pretty unpopular with the general public at this stage in the electoral cycle — and the opposition, at a minimum, should be leading polls. Even Ed Miliband's Labour, which went on to lose the 2015 election, was enjoying leads of up to 6-points at this point.

This chart, like lots of data which has been published recently, will only strengthen the "Save Labour" narrative that Jeremy Corbyn is unelectable and is leading Labour into the political wilderness. His challenger Owen Smith has promised to re-transform the party into a "credible" electoral force.