GeronimoSon wrote:With the decline of every Qualifying Offer & the likelihood of the Yankees resigning Robinson Cano and possibly Hiroki Kuroda, the draft positions are set.. IF Ubaldo signs elsewhere (still open for consideration), the Indians would then have picks # 24, 37 and 45 in the coming June First Entry draft.. With three in the top fifty, the Indians draft pool will be swelled by the addition of these two picks. It's a deep and talented draft and could be even further augmented if the Indians / Rockies / Cardinals decide to make a trade that would include the Rockies giving up their competitive balance draft lottery selection (projected # 43).. We shall see...

Don't forget that teams will lose 1st rounders for signing any of those FA's that declined the QO. Of the teams that don't have protected first rounders, I think its fair to say that the Yankees and Texas will probably lose their 1st rounders pushing our first pick up 2 spots to 22. The Giants, Angels, Orioles, Royals, and Nationals all draft in front of us and I think it is fair to assume that at least one of these teams will also be singing a FA linked to compensation, so our first pick will probably move up 3-4 spots to 20 or 21 and our second and third picks could each move up anywhere from 4-7 spots. We could have picks 21, 32, and 40 come June. Hopefully we can produce something with them.

You're right..the Indians could actually move up a spot of three.. Every step up.. means the chance a better player is available.. but only a chance..

Haha you know how to get me fired up. I honestly don't get it it. Aaron Nola would be just awful in Coors Field, too. That fastball gets creamed in the upper levels. How is this not Jeremy Sowers 2.0? I'm sometimes surprised at pitchers that get by due to deception and stuff, but that's a horrible thesis to work off when you're selecting in the first round. Aaron Nola is a 3rd or 4th round pick.

How does Aaron Nola get 1st round talk and DJ Baxendale go in the 10th round? Makes no sense. I liked Baxendale in college, but that was as a guy that would go 4th to 5th round. Talking about these types of guys in the top 10 overall is ridiculous. I'd like Nola if he wasn't a top 100 overall ranked prospect, so I'm not saying he's got no shot but spending a top 10 pick (or even first round pick) on him is a poor decision.

Another note, Rocky, I know he's probably not your kind of ball player, but I think Trea Turner is going to be a really good major leaguer. That power is going to develop and he's going to be a very well-rounded MLB SS. I think he should be in the 1st overall discussion with Rodon.

Haha you know how to get me fired up. I honestly don't get it it. Aaron Nola would be just awful in Coors Field, too. That fastball gets creamed in the upper levels. How is this not Jeremy Sowers 2.0? I'm sometimes surprised at pitchers that get by due to deception and stuff, but that's a horrible thesis to work off when you're selecting in the first round. Aaron Nola is a 3rd or 4th round pick.

How does Aaron Nola get 1st round talk and DJ Baxendale go in the 10th round? Makes no sense. I liked Baxendale in college, but that was as a guy that would go 4th to 5th round. Talking about these types of guys in the top 10 overall is ridiculous. I'd like Nola if he wasn't a top 100 overall ranked prospect, so I'm not saying he's got no shot but spending a top 10 pick (or even first round pick) on him is a poor decision.

Another note, Rocky, I know he's probably not your kind of ball player, but I think Trea Turner is going to be a really good major leaguer. That power is going to develop and he's going to be a very well-rounded MLB SS. I think he should be in the 1st overall discussion with Rodon.

Wow, Turner over Rodon? Now I'm trying to think of a recent draftee who I'd take over Rodon; Bryce Harper? Nope, really like Rodon. That Nola/Sowers comp is pretty apt, now that you mention it.

I wouldn't say that Turner isn't my kind of ballplayer necessarily, I just haven't seen him do anything. Shows you how useless limited looks are for eval purposes. Maybe my Papi mancrush is based on seeing him only at his best? Nah, he's a player. I'm the only one, that I know of, that likes Papi over Fisher & I really liked Fisher.

We've got a lot of work to do before the next draft. Unless we re-sign Ubie, Grant's going to need our advice on 3 of the top 45 or so picks.

Haha you know how to get me fired up. I honestly don't get it it. Aaron Nola would be just awful in Coors Field, too. That fastball gets creamed in the upper levels. How is this not Jeremy Sowers 2.0? I'm sometimes surprised at pitchers that get by due to deception and stuff, but that's a horrible thesis to work off when you're selecting in the first round. Aaron Nola is a 3rd or 4th round pick.

How does Aaron Nola get 1st round talk and DJ Baxendale go in the 10th round? Makes no sense. I liked Baxendale in college, but that was as a guy that would go 4th to 5th round. Talking about these types of guys in the top 10 overall is ridiculous. I'd like Nola if he wasn't a top 100 overall ranked prospect, so I'm not saying he's got no shot but spending a top 10 pick (or even first round pick) on him is a poor decision.

Another note, Rocky, I know he's probably not your kind of ball player, but I think Trea Turner is going to be a really good major leaguer. That power is going to develop and he's going to be a very well-rounded MLB SS. I think he should be in the 1st overall discussion with Rodon.

Wow, Turner over Rodon? Now I'm trying to think of a recent draftee who I'd take over Rodon; Bryce Harper? Nope, really like Rodon. That Nola/Sowers comp is pretty apt, now that you mention it.

I wouldn't say that Turner isn't my kind of ballplayer necessarily, I just haven't seen him do anything. Shows you how useless limited looks are for eval purposes. Maybe my Papi mancrush is based on seeing him only at his best? Nah, he's a player. I'm the only one, that I know of, that likes Papi over Fisher & I really liked Fisher.

We've got a lot of work to do before the next draft. Unless we re-sign Ubie, Grant's going to need our advice on 3 of the top 45 or so picks.

I'm not advocating Turner over Rodon, but I think it's something teams ought to consider. If you're a team weary of taking a pitcher (injury risk) 1st overall and would prefer a (perceived safer) college positional talent that has a very well rounded game, polished approach at the plate, plays a skill position and also has physical projection then Turner is a good option.

I like Turner's offensive potential. He's got a good approach at the plate and his swing has some leverage. He really needs to get stronger, though. He's got the frame to add a good deal of muscle mass which I believe could turn him into a 20 HR guy. He's physically immature right now and while I don't think he's ever going to be huge, some extra strength is attainable and it can help his bat speed. He's got to be willing to put in the work in the weight room. Some guys aren't willing to do this -- I don't know if you remember Kevin Howard at U of Miami, but he was a projectable guy that refused to lift weights and his game never progressed. It would help Turner's stock a lot if he's putting in the work right now and comes out this spring with some extra pounds of muscle, but it's possible it never comes (like Howard).

We'll see. I really like Turner. Right now you need to use some imagination which keeps him out of true 1st overall consideration.

OhioBaseball wrote:I'm not advocating Turner over Rodon, but I think it's something teams ought to consider. If you're a team weary of taking a pitcher (injury risk) 1st overall and would prefer a (perceived safer) college positional talent that has a very well rounded game, polished approach at the plate, plays a skill position and also has physical projection then Turner is a good option.

I am not against taking an arm because of the risk of injury but my feeling is the Indians are crap at developing starters. That said if I were to advocate taking a starter in the first round, it would be a college stud like Rondon (if the Tribe were at the top of the draft, he'd be my pick). College studs take less development and I see Rondon being a fast tracked pitcher. Unfortunately, the Tribe doesn't pick until late first round. With 3 picks in the 1st and 1st Supp., I would like the Tribe to take 2 bats and 1 arm and maybe another arm in R2 (preferably HS).

I don't believe that Medeiros is an instant star in the making but at the PG game at Petco in August he threw the most ridiculous breaking ball that I've ever seen. I have it DVRed & showed it to my grandson & he just laughed.

Daingean mentioned college pitching but beyond Rodon, Beede, Hoffman, & Cederoth we're left with Weaver, Nola, and some really good relievers, Burdi of the amazing arm and Finnegan who has OB's blessing. I'm not sure if we want to draft a reliever that early but with multiple early picks and the possibility of maybe stretching them out, Burdi & Finnegan may be in the discussion.

I don't believe that Medeiros is an instant star in the making but at the PG game at Petco in August he threw the most ridiculous breaking ball that I've ever seen. I have it DVRed & showed it to my grandson & he just laughed.

Daingean mentioned college pitching but beyond Rodon, Beede, Hoffman, & Cederoth we're left with Weaver, Nola, and some really good relievers, Burdi of the amazing arm and Finnegan who has OB's blessing. I'm not sure if we want to draft a reliever that early but with multiple early picks and the possibility of maybe stretching them out, Burdi & Finnegan may be in the discussion.

Finnegan started for TCU and some of his games for Team USA last year. I think he could easily be converted into a reliever, but such a move is premature. At this point (before the 2014 season), I expect Finnegan to be a starter at High A for his first pro season (2015) with a chance to move up to Double-A. He's got two plus pitches and his arm action is fine. I'd definitely try him as a starter, but it's very easy to see him as a late inning reliever just due to the very apparent Billy Wagner comparisons. I'd be very happy with him as the Indians first selection and I think he can start but he's got some kinks to work out.

Regarding Tyler Beede, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he's available for the Indians with their first round pick. He's very talented and is still projectable, but he really struggled this summer and he had some problems with control last season with Vanderbilt. If I were a team selecting in the top 10, I'd be weary of taking him there. He's still a bit of a project. The Indians should be doing their homework on him because he could fall if he doesn't show any material improvement this spring. Going back to daingean's comments, the Indians don't have a good track record with developing those types of pitchers, however.

Additionally, am I the only one underwhelmed by Jeff Hoffman at East Carolina? I get why he's getting early consideration (unlike Aaron Nola), but I'm not too impressed. Is it too much to ask for the apparent #2 college pitching prospect to throw his pitches from the same arm slot?! Guys in college do that often, but not top 5 overall prospects. That's not my only problem with him, but I'm just not on board with taking him as high as others apparently are.

I don't believe that Medeiros is an instant star in the making but at the PG game at Petco in August he threw the most ridiculous breaking ball that I've ever seen. I have it DVRed & showed it to my grandson & he just laughed.

Daingean mentioned college pitching but beyond Rodon, Beede, Hoffman, & Cederoth we're left with Weaver, Nola, and some really good relievers, Burdi of the amazing arm and Finnegan who has OB's blessing. I'm not sure if we want to draft a reliever that early but with multiple early picks and the possibility of maybe stretching them out, Burdi & Finnegan may be in the discussion.

Finnegan started for TCU and some of his games for Team USA last year. I think he could easily be converted into a reliever, but such a move is premature. At this point (before the 2014 season), I expect Finnegan to be a starter at High A for his first pro season (2015) with a chance to move up to Double-A. He's got two plus pitches and his arm action is fine. I'd definitely try him as a starter, but it's very easy to see him as a late inning reliever just due to the very apparent Billy Wagner comparisons. I'd be very happy with him as the Indians first selection and I think he can start but he's got some kinks to work out.

Regarding Tyler Beede, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he's available for the Indians with their first round pick. He's very talented and is still projectable, but he really struggled this summer and he had some problems with control last season with Vanderbilt. If I were a team selecting in the top 10, I'd be weary of taking him there. He's still a bit of a project. The Indians should be doing their homework on him because he could fall if he doesn't show any material improvement this spring. Going back to daingean's comments, the Indians don't have a good track record with developing those types of pitchers, however.

Additionally, am I the only one underwhelmed by Jeff Hoffman at East Carolina? I get why he's getting early consideration (unlike Aaron Nola), but I'm not too impressed. Is it too much to ask for the apparent #2 college pitching prospect to throw his pitches from the same arm slot?! Guys in college do that often, but not top 5 overall prospects. That's not my only problem with him, but I'm just not on board with taking him as high as others apparently are.

Finnegan? IDK.. I haven't seen much of him at all..

Wary of Beede.. not weary.. Women don't get wooley.. they get weary.. " (gotta love Bull Durham reference) and you should be wary...

w/r to Hoffman..First off, overall, I agree.. Is he impressive?.. no so much..

IDK that it's his arm slot that is varying or if it's that weird hitch/hesitation when he gathers on the load, he hesitates for the briefest of moments, before his arm catches up and the ball jumps out of his hand. That little move makes his delivery about four pieces.. not very smooth and not always very consistent, especially with the direction of his foot upon landing. Do you think it might be a little deceptive?. He has the same gather/hesitation in the full wind up and from the stretch.. There is plenty of arm strength and he can spin a breaking ball but has a tendency to push it making it hang. (and everyone who has ever caught a hanging slider knows you're thrilled you weren't asking for a new ball from the ump) His change goes from being very good/special,nice fade and good arm action to "wow, does this need work". Is he a # 2 overall?>. probably not.. but he has the frame and the stuff to get there..as a college arm..you'd think he would be a little further along...

GeronimoSon wrote:w/r to Hoffman..First off, overall, I agree.. Is he impressive?.. no so much..

IDK that it's his arm slot that is varying or if it's that weird hitch/hesitation when he gathers on the load, he hesitates for the briefest of moments, before his arm catches up and the ball jumps out of his hand. That little move makes his delivery about four pieces.. not very smooth and not always very consistent, especially with the direction of his foot upon landing. Do you think it might be a little deceptive?. He has the same gather/hesitation in the full wind up and from the stretch.. There is plenty of arm strength and he can spin a breaking ball but has a tendency to push it making it hang. (and everyone who has ever caught a hanging slider knows you're thrilled you weren't asking for a new ball from the ump) His change goes from being very good/special,nice fade and good arm action to "wow, does this need work". Is he a # 2 overall?>. probably not.. but he has the frame and the stuff to get there..as a college arm..you'd think he would be a little further along...

I admit that I have a bias with pitching prospects (Rocky has picked up on it). This is my rationale;

(a) I strongly believe that good pitching prospects are ones that are able to throw pitches that miss bats.(b) I believe pitchers that work vertically with 3/4 and taller arm slots (to get depth on their breaking balls) have an advantage at getting swings and misses. They also can throw their fastball up in the zone and miss bats that way if they have the velo. These guys get more K's than guys with lower arm slots that tend to be sinker/slider (lower arm slot) guys that pitch more to contact.

You can watch Hoffman's YouTube video (I've never seen him in person, for the record). He looks just fine throwing his bullpen session but in game he tends to drop his arm slot to a low 3/4, particularly vs. lefties. That's common to see in college baseball. From a RH pitcher perspective, a low arm slot tends to be an easier slot to throw a change from vs lefties but you can't throw a good breaking ball from the low slot b/c you're losing a lot of downward leverage and the pitch will have a flat bias. So he'll move back up to a 3/4 slot to throw his breaking ball. That works in college, but not in AA ball and above b/c you're tipping your pitches. Hoffman has to work on throwing 3 pitches from the same slot.

Hoffman is clearly talented. He's big with long arms and legs, he's got very nice arm speed and he's pretty athletic for his size. He's definitely got 1st round pedigree, but I want to see guys that will be able to get swings and misses at lower levels because that projects well to upper levels. I don't see it from Hoffman based on that tape. He's got the size, arm speed and pitching proportions to work with, but I think he needs some development.

Hoffman can throw from a good arm slot (though he needs to do it consistently), he's got a nice delivery and arm action, so I don't mean to trash him. I just don't want him that early in the draft.

I hate these tall, long limbed pitchers that can throw 95 mph but throw from low arm slots. You can go back a couple of years and read me trashing Taylor Jungmann of U of Texas-Austin (Milwaukee Brewers, 12th overall pick). I saw him numerous times in college and his arm slot sucked. Jungmann is a little better now in that regard, but you can see by his minor league numbers that he can't miss bats despite being tall, long limbed and throwing 95mph. His K/BB ratio in Double-A last year was 82/73...terrible. His future is in middle relief.

I remember 10 years back scouting Kyle Sleeth at Wake Forest. He was 6'5" with all you'd want in a pitching prospect (though I always thought his delivery was a little stiff). He'd regularly throw 96, 97, 98 mph but he was a very low 3/4 slot. He threw strikes and he threw very hard but his stuff was flat. His fastball was plus, but his breaking balls had no depth and he couldn't put batters away. The Tigers made him the 3rd overall pick that year. Once he got to Double-A (this is where those guys run into trouble), he really struggled. Now, he was a bust and a good portion of that was because he had Tommy John surgery, but even had he been healthy he wasn't going to be good.

This is just me ranting and I wouldn't put Hoffman in the Jungmann territory because he does have the nice 3/4 slot but in that video he really showed a lower arm slot for too many of his pitches. Maybe that was just a one day thing, but I doubt it.

I acknowledge that this is just a general rule and there are exceptions but based on my experience (which is limited), I want guys that can get depth on their breaking pitches and throw fastballs that have good downward trajectory (hitting a 90 mph flat fastball is way different from hitting a 90 mph fastball that is approaching you from a downward tilt). Some guys can throw from lower arm slots and still miss bats -- Pedro Martinez had a great career despite being short and throwing low 3/4 but he somehow was able to throw a breaking ball with depth. He was simply amazing, but there are other examples, too.

I like pitching prospects that can miss bats. As I said, there are exceptions. Rocky mentioned a guy that was off-the-radar a few months ago, Michael Kopech. He's a little unorthodox with his delivery, and he too has a tendency to drop to lower arm slots at times, but he's younger and just with his arm speed and delivery I think he's got natural deception on his side. I see him missing a good deal of bats in his future. Very interesting pitching prospect.

This is another case of a kid seemingly overlooked. I've only once seen him ranked in the top 100 although that will likely change. It should. This is a big, strong kid who looks like he might be durable, with an easy motion, misses bats, and actually is pretty new to pitching (was primarily a 1B) despite the apparent polish. I like this kid a lot & would love to draft him.

This is another case of a kid seemingly overlooked. I've only once seen him ranked in the top 100 although that will likely change. It should. This is a big, strong kid who looks like he might be durable, with an easy motion, misses bats, and actually is pretty new to pitching (was primarily a 1B) despite the apparent polish. I like this kid a lot & would love to draft him.

Nice easy motion for Keaton.. the change up is a pitch he can take to the ML's.. I'd call that a plus pitch right now. I didn't notice him spinning anything. What kind of a breaking ball does he have?. the velo and arm side run on his FB are very good.. Seems like he is good athlete too..something that cannot and should not be under rated.. He'd be a good pick in the upper rounds of the draft..

The left hander looks like he has a lot of effort in his delivery.. He's one of those kids that is destined to remain under the radar..his body projects well.. and a lefty.. both of these guys are interesting

New guy to watch, Michael Chavis, 3B from down the road in Marietta, GA. I'm sure daingean can fill us in. This is a quick bat with proven power who looks like he can stick at 3B. Nice defensive actions, quick feet, has run a 6.68 60. Has been ranked in the 40-50 range but should move up. Here's some vid:

Rocky55 wrote:New guy to watch, Michael Chavis, 3B from down the road in Marietta, GA. I'm sure daingean can fill us in. This is a quick bat with proven power who looks like he can stick at 3B. Nice defensive actions, quick feet, has run a 6.68 60. Has been ranked in the 40-50 range but should move up. Here's some vid:

Upside! Kid's 6'2" & 185 with 20 lbs. of muscle to add. The leg raise might be an issue but the kid can barrel the ball with really good bat speed. Looks like a decent runner with just an okay arm who may be limited to LF but looks like the bat will play there. These HS bats are getting me psyched.

Was going to say that he reminded me of Sonny Gray from the left side but he stays a lot taller. Looks like some effort there but Gray has it also & is successful despite it. Looks plenty strong enough to start but I'm not sure with the limited looks that he has the swing & miss that Gray had. Interesting guy.

With a handful of QO'd FA's still out there.. it's becoming clearer and clearer that everyone is going to get a contract. The question becomes.. are the Indians going to resign Ubaldo?.. If they do, then, as of now, the 34th overall pick in the June First Entry draft will go by the wayside, leaving the Indians with two picks in the top 40 or so selections. This is an unusually deep draft, heavy in arms (both HS and College) and with quite a few middle infielders and catchers.. So, a week before spring training, here is my list for the Indians top three picks (assumes Ubaldo signs elsewhere, leaving the 22nd, 34th and 42nd overall picks as the Indians first three)..

Jacob Gatewood.. a H.S. Infielder (Clovis HS) with a USC commitment. This kid was rated as high as top five at one point. His talent says, not far off.. He may end up at 3B. Currently plays SS and would need a three year minor league career before making it to the big leagues.. the skills and tools make him worth the wait. A Tulo type body is what he brings....

Michael Cedaroth a JR RHP at San Diego State..Big, strong hard throwing.. exactly what the Indians lack in their system.. and IMPACT FOR/TORP for the nearest future. This guy is the goods.. at 6'6 & 210 he has the frame to add more to his 95-99 mph fastball that he regularly pushes to triple digits late in games. His secondary stuff is there, but not nearly as developed as is FB..

Sean "Nuke-em" Newcomb A JR LHP at Hartford College. He's a slim 240 pound 6'5 lefty that reminds you of Jon Lester....How much more is needed? His stuff is ML all the way even if Hartford College isn't. Newcomb has a plus fastball that sits at 93-94 and tops out at 96. He has cutter, a slider, a curveball and has worked on a changeup. Five pitch mix.. lefty.. big.. hard throwing.. wouldn't be nice having him with Chief Wahoo on his sleeve..

Karsten Whitson: A SR at Florida coming off of an injury marred junior year. It is because of injury that he returned to Florida to improve his draft stock. He is another 6'5" 220 kid with a power arm that throws down hill.. He was once considered as one of the top five picks in the draft.. We'll see if he's able to recover is low mid 90's fastball that ran on his arm side with sink along with two pretty good secondary pitches that made him a first round pick of the Padres back in 2010. If he has that sinking fastball back, he'll be a first round pick again..

Dylan Cease a RHP in Milton High School with a pretty good pedigree, frame 6'2" and solid core. He pack 190 pounds of sinew and gristle on a body that can accept a lot more.. He has a low 90's FB that touches mid 90's along with an effective change up and curveball. He's a University of Georgia commit.. but would be a wonderful addition to the Indians minor league system..

A few sleepers for later in the draft:

Garrett Guys a JR / RHP 6'6 240 who pitches and DH's at tiny Oklahoma Christian University. He can hit better than CC Sabathia.. His bat is that good. His pitching offers a low to mid 90's FastBall.. a deceptive curve, a cut fastball and a mediocre change up that's going to need some work. Everything he throws.. goes down. Sort of a Jake Westbrook heavy sinking fastball but has a Justin Masterson body. Kind of scary, tbh..

Thoughts...?

BTW.. Lucas Giolito is now the Washington Nats # 1 prospect.. that didn't take long..

Believe GS mentioned Burdi in an earlier post. Considering the org's success rate at developing relievers, not a bad idea if he's available at #42, but he probably won't be there. We do seem to be able to pick up usable pen arms dumpster diving so picking a reliever earlier seems like a waste. Burdi won't come cheap either.

Rocky55 wrote:Believe GS mentioned Burdi in an earlier post. Considering the org's success rate at developing relievers, not a bad idea if he's available at #42, but he probably won't be there. We do seem to be able to pick up usable pen arms dumpster diving so picking a reliever earlier seems like a waste. Burdi won't come cheap either.

Rocky.. yes...I did.. had him as an RP right now with the potential to learn a third pitch.. His big arm makes him a high ceiling/high floor kind of pick. If he didn't work out as an SP, he would certainly fit the bill as a back of the pen type candidate. Michael Cederoth could be in that same boat.. having a plus plus FB and a couple of "not quite there" secondary pitches (Slider and Change) that could spell back of the bullpen/closer on the low end of projection scale and TORP on the front end. With the Indians getting an early 20's pick.. these are the kinds of impact arms that will be in play for their pick..

Drafting players for a TORP hasn't been a strength of the Indians.. perhaps when OB discusses a changed approach (and isn't discussing minor league franchise relocation stuff?..) that's the area of player acquisition the Indians MUST focus on.. more than any other part of the talent acquisition profile. To do that, the best talent evaluators like Jeff Luhnow, Joe DelliCarri, Mike Basso & Dan Kantrovitz need to be found.. OB's spot about that..

Read that Rice Jr. RHP Jordan Stephens has had season ending TJ surgery. This was a really good draft spec with a FB that sits around 92 and a really good CB that's a swing & miss pitch. Only around 6'2" but a pretty skinny guy who has some physical upside left.

Not sure what round to target a guy like this in but he might have gone as high as the Supplemental Round the way his year was going. He could develop into a good 2 SP & may be tempted to sign rather than lose a year rehabbing & not getting that much of a bonus as a 5th yr. Senior. Having had TJ now he may be able to pitch in the minors sometime in '15 and not be that much behind the other guys in his class.

Rocky55 wrote:Read that Rice Jr. RHP Jordan Stephens has had season ending TJ surgery. This was a really good draft spec with a FB that sits around 92 and a really good CB that's a swing & miss pitch. Only around 6'2" but a pretty skinny guy who has some physical upside left.

Not sure what round to target a guy like this in but he might have gone as high as the Supplemental Round the way his year was going. He could develop into a good 2 SP & may be tempted to sign rather than lose a year rehabbing & not getting that much of a bonus as a 5th yr. Senior. Having had TJ now he may be able to pitch in the minors sometime in '15 and not be that much behind the other guys in his class.

Having the surgery now I'd definitely expect him to be pitching at some level 2015, even if it was only Mahoning later in June.

If it was felt he was worth a Supp pick before the injury....I'm not sure it means you can't still target him there. May be able to get him for well under slot if you go that high and use the money saved to go overslot with your first 1st rounder. Agree that he'd probably be more likely to sign now (provided he doesn't completely plummet in the draft). If he signed early enough, most of his rehab would be while employed by a big league club. I know these big programs have lots of money and sure the top guys get great, great care...but still would imagine a major league team would have better resources/doctors to rehab a young kid (or at least how the Tribe does). I believe this is one reason Giolito agreed with the Nats. Knew his elbow was messed up and rehabing/seeing MLB team doctors probably sounded way more enticing than dealing with school and rehabbing there (obviously he got paid a lot too which helps any decision).

Rocky55 wrote:Read that Rice Jr. RHP Jordan Stephens has had season ending TJ surgery. This was a really good draft spec with a FB that sits around 92 and a really good CB that's a swing & miss pitch. Only around 6'2" but a pretty skinny guy who has some physical upside left.

Not sure what round to target a guy like this in but he might have gone as high as the Supplemental Round the way his year was going. He could develop into a good 2 SP & may be tempted to sign rather than lose a year rehabbing & not getting that much of a bonus as a 5th yr. Senior. Having had TJ now he may be able to pitch in the minors sometime in '15 and not be that much behind the other guys in his class.

I'm all for it. Pitchers are going to get hurt; you just have to expect it. It's better paying him 50% of his value when you know he's gotta have TJ than paying full value and a two years later he goes under the knife.

Just going off a very brief video, first supplemental round looks pretty early for him b/c he's a little undersized (I agree still has some projection) but I'm with Rocky on his curveball being a swing & miss type. Maybe heavy reliance on that curve led to the injury? Maybe 3rd round-ish before injury? I don't know what his number is but floating $250k out there could be a place to start with his "advisor". Rice is a great school with a great baseball program so he may be a little more expensive but who knows.

Stephens looks like a guy with some arm speed and can clearly spin a breaking ball. I'm all for building an inventory of these types and here's a guy that could be had at a value. Make the investment, have some patience see what you've got in 3-4 years; it could be a Cody Allen-type that you're paying the MLB minimum to work the 7th and 8th innings for you.

I like LHP Matt Imhof of Cal Poly. He’s got size, athleticism and a good free/loose arm action with still some projection left. He’s sitting 89-91 mph, but that’s got a nice downhill tilt and he can cut it and run it so it plays just fine. His slider is a good swing and miss type of pitch with good, two-plane break. It’s early, but he’s got my stamp of approval for one of Cleveland’s first supplemental round picks this June. This is a good prospect with upside that will be climbing the charts this spring.

OhioBaseball wrote:I like LHP Matt Imhof of Cal Poly. He’s got size, athleticism and a good free/loose arm action with still some projection left. He’s sitting 89-91 mph, but that’s got a nice downhill tilt and he can cut it and run it so it plays just fine. His slider is a good swing and miss type of pitch with good, two-plane break. It’s early, but he’s got my stamp of approval for one of Cleveland’s first supplemental round picks this June. This is a good prospect with upside that will be climbing the charts this spring.

I don't recall who I was looking for, but came across this same lefty at http://www.ksby.com/news/legends-in-the ... att-imhof/ The story basically said he was a good pitcher, but needed more to become elite, which he didn't think he was.. So, the school sort of directed him to become serious about his body mass, physical conditioning, etc.. All good things and 25 pounds of redirected shaping... and he took his freshman 20 and closer role and became the Friday night starter on the # 8 ranked team in the nation.. Embedded in another story, I came across a recent video and scouting report at "Big League Futures":

When you watch.. tell me if you see more squat and a slower load with the ball behind him in his motion when throwing the curve and a much 'faster' delivery without the squat when he's throwing his fastball. I thought it was overly apparent.. Those are the kind of things that can be coached out of him..but, tell me if you see the same thing....

While researching Stephens you get to know his replacement, former closer, now starter, Zech Lemond. A 6'4" RHP who sits at 92-95 with what PG calls a "plus, swing and miss secondary pitch" in his slider. This is a low mileage arm, a kid who has thrived after moving into the rotation, with a history of success in multiple inning relief appearances. Here's a look:

Finnegan had another good outing on Friday. The important thing is he's throwing strikes, which was a concern given the extra movement/effort in his delivery. He seems to have ironed things out. Cal Poly LHP Matt Imhof with another very good outing (albeit vs. a bad team). I think there is some Andy Pettitte in him.

I don't expect it to happen, but I'd love to see Trea Turner fall to the Indians at #21 b/c he's not done anything to cement himself in the top 10. I don't care if the Indians already have Lindor and Jose Ramirez. Gotta take BPA and I think Turner is going to gradually add some power to his offensive game and he's got infield skills to play anywhere on the infield. I'd take him at #21 for sure if available.

Nice to see you pimp some College performers Rocky. Lemond and Imhof would be solid picks. I also, like you, am a big Mike Papi fan. Not sure what's the knock, he's just good. I wouldn't mind if our first 4 picks would be Weaver, Papi, Lemond and Imhof, although it would make GS's "high upside" head explode 4 solid specs as a base of your draft and we'd probably even safe a lot of budget in the process. With that extra money we can then gamble on falling HS guys in the 3rd to 10th rounds mixed with a couple of performing College SR

OhioBaseball wrote:I've heard HS arm Michael Kopech has been dabbling between 95-98mph (top velocities per outing) this spring. What a high upside arm he is. He could be a front of the rotation guy if developed well.

I read that too, OB. I liked him at 93 but he'll be much more popular at 98. He must have realized that he was from Texas & had to throw at least 96. Hopefully he doesn't lose the deception, command, & that nice slider by getting gun happy.

Tondo wrote:Nice to see you pimp some College performers Rocky. Lemond and Imhof would be solid picks. I also, like you, am a big Mike Papi fan. Not sure what's the knock, he's just good. I wouldn't mind if our first 4 picks would be Weaver, Papi, Lemond and Imhof, although it would make GS's "high upside" head explode 4 solid specs as a base of your draft and we'd probably even safe a lot of budget in the process. With that extra money we can then gamble on falling HS guys in the 3rd to 10th rounds mixed with a couple of performing College SR

Hey Tondo, I like quite a few of the HS pitchers but there is a ton of good college pitching & IMO the college bats look quite a bit better than the HS bats. Gordon & Chavis look good, Davidson is well thought of & I've read good stuff on Forrest Wall but Frazier's better than any of them IMO. BTW, Imhof is OB's guy so yeah, we should definitely target him. Also, your draft looks great!

Tondo wrote:Nice to see you pimp some College performers Rocky. Lemond and Imhof would be solid picks. I also, like you, am a big Mike Papi fan. Not sure what's the knock, he's just good. I wouldn't mind if our first 4 picks would be Weaver, Papi, Lemond and Imhof, although it would make GS's "high upside" head explode 4 solid specs as a base of your draft and we'd probably even safe a lot of budget in the process. With that extra money we can then gamble on falling HS guys in the 3rd to 10th rounds mixed with a couple of performing College SR

Hey Tondo, I like quite a few of the HS pitchers but there is a ton of good college pitching & IMO the college bats look quite a bit better than the HS bats. Gordon & Chavis look good, Davidson is well thought of & I've read good stuff on Forrest Wall but Frazier's better than any of them IMO. BTW, Imhof is OB's guy so yeah, we should definitely target him. Also, your draft looks great!

Michael Chavis is a guy I personally really hope the Tribe looks hard at with their comp picks. I know some project him to move to the OF but personally believe he can stick at 3B. Reminds me a bit of Frazier with the small size but quick hands/bat speed and leading to some good raw power.

Tondo wrote:Nice to see you pimp some College performers Rocky. Lemond and Imhof would be solid picks. I also, like you, am a big Mike Papi fan. Not sure what's the knock, he's just good. I wouldn't mind if our first 4 picks would be Weaver, Papi, Lemond and Imhof, although it would make GS's "high upside" head explode 4 solid specs as a base of your draft and we'd probably even safe a lot of budget in the process. With that extra money we can then gamble on falling HS guys in the 3rd to 10th rounds mixed with a couple of performing College SR

Hey Tondo, I like quite a few of the HS pitchers but there is a ton of good college pitching & IMO the college bats look quite a bit better than the HS bats. Gordon & Chavis look good, Davidson is well thought of & I've read good stuff on Forrest Wall but Frazier's better than any of them IMO. BTW, Imhof is OB's guy so yeah, we should definitely target him. Also, your draft looks great!

Michael Chavis is a guy I personally really hope the Tribe looks hard at with their comp picks. I know some project him to move to the OF but personally believe he can stick at 3B. Reminds me a bit of Frazier with the small size but quick hands/bat speed and leading to some good raw power.

Definitely see Chavis sticking at 3B.

I don't dislike the HS bats as a group. Some of the lower ranked guys I like better than Jackson, Gatewood, Reetz, etc. I like Stone Garrett & Kevin Padlo & Luke Bonfield. The vids I've seen of Wall are interesting. He's built like a HS kid but moves like a college guy. Lost some time due to injury but looks polished with the bat.

I really like this draft & believe its a good situation in which to have multiple early picks, so we have to capitalize.

Tondo wrote:Nice to see you pimp some College performers Rocky. Lemond and Imhof would be solid picks. I also, like you, am a big Mike Papi fan. Not sure what's the knock, he's just good. I wouldn't mind if our first 4 picks would be Weaver, Papi, Lemond and Imhof, although it would make GS's "high upside" head explode 4 solid specs as a base of your draft and we'd probably even safe a lot of budget in the process. With that extra money we can then gamble on falling HS guys in the 3rd to 10th rounds mixed with a couple of performing College SR

Hey Tondo, I like quite a few of the HS pitchers but there is a ton of good college pitching & IMO the college bats look quite a bit better than the HS bats. Gordon & Chavis look good, Davidson is well thought of & I've read good stuff on Forrest Wall but Frazier's better than any of them IMO. BTW, Imhof is OB's guy so yeah, we should definitely target him. Also, your draft looks great!

Michael Chavis is a guy I personally really hope the Tribe looks hard at with their comp picks. I know some project him to move to the OF but personally believe he can stick at 3B. Reminds me a bit of Frazier with the small size but quick hands/bat speed and leading to some good raw power.

Definitely see Chavis sticking at 3B.

I don't dislike the HS bats as a group. Some of the lower ranked guys I like better than Jackson, Gatewood, Reetz, etc. I like Stone Garrett & Kevin Padlo & Luke Bonfield. The vids I've seen of Wall are interesting. He's built like a HS kid but moves like a college guy. Lost some time due to injury but looks polished with the bat.

I really like this draft & believe its a good situation in which to have multiple early picks, so we have to capitalize.

Yeah.. Chavis moving over to third would be a natural for him. If he wanted to pitch, his arm is strong enough.. but, don't take away that beautiful swing.. short, FAST and powerful.. It's a shock anything he barrels doesn't go over a fence.. '

w/r to your comment about Jacob Gatewood, he's the goods.. he won't be there for the Indians.. that's the way it goes..but my goodness does that young man have a future.. TiQuan Forbes has some of the same characteristics.. I think Forbes will have more high end speed.. it will come down to how they physically mature as both are "today" kind of athletes..

A few others: Flash Gordon's son, Nick.. has the makings and the pedigree of a future star, like J-Roll.. I'm not sure what to think of Michael Gettys.. one time I see him and there's no one better in the world than him..the next time.. not so much. There should be at least one truly upside HS bat that should interest the Indians in their first three picks & Chavis wouldn't be a bad choice in the mid 30's..

Zimmer is the goods.. he could be the Wil Myers/George Springer/Kris Bryant the Indians system lacks..He's a l ittle more projection than these great prospects..but has the frame/tools/pedigree to get there.. He'd be a fine selection with one of the Indians first three picks...

Read an article in the Scout Notes section on the PG site. Subscription only so I can't link it but Tony allows short excerpts so:

"Stinnett was razor sharp...plus stuff...92-94 FB, popped 95 in the 6th...no trouble carrying velo, command & movement deep into the game...plus movement, plus command...FB has plus sink, runs in on hands of RH batters...81-84 slider with two plane depth plus command...a few changeups at 83-85 which match the movement of the two seam FB down in the zone...classic late bloomer...if he sustains stuff stacks up with Fedde & Ellis...as high as 1st round comp"

A Senior (easy sign), low mileage (didn't pitch until his Jr. year), repeats his deceptive delivery & difficult to square up, with upside? Sounds like a good value.

You don’t often find college seniors that look like that. His fastball looks like a legitimate pitch. Didn’t get too good of a look at his breaking ball, but yeah he’s a prospect. I can even see him going in the 1st round. He’ll be an interesting case study in terms of a college senior RHP prospect with upside; perhaps even more stuff left in the tank. Not your typical senior sign, but he’s got less leverage so his price tag will be interesting to follow.

I do NOT like taking guys as cheap signs in the hope that a top prospect will fall to later picks, so you can use the saved money from your first round pick for later round picks (i.e. Tyler Naquin, just another one of the stupid things Brad Grant has done). I'm not sure how cheap Stinnett will be, though there should be a modest discount.

OhioBaseball wrote:You don’t often find college seniors that look like that. His fastball looks like a legitimate pitch. Didn’t get too good of a look at his breaking ball, but yeah he’s a prospect. I can even see him going in the 1st round. He’ll be an interesting case study in terms of a college senior RHP prospect with upside; perhaps even more stuff left in the tank. Not your typical senior sign, but he’s got less leverage so his price tag will be interesting to follow.

I do NOT like taking guys as cheap signs in the hope that a top prospect will fall to later picks, so you can use the saved money from your first round pick for later round picks (i.e. Tyler Naquin, just another one of the stupid things Brad Grant has done). I'm not sure how cheap Stinnett will be, though there should be a modest discount.

I'm not a fan of the cheap Sr. signs to save money either, OB. The fact that Stinnett might save you money is another item on the plus side. He sounds like he knows how to pitch & he might preferable to many of the other guys slated for the 1st round, i.e. Hoffman, Cederoth, Weaver, Fedde, Ellis, et al. I still like Lemond better but I'm getting used to the idea of Lemond being gone before we pick. Also, as a disclaimer, I haven't seen Fedde so I'm basing that on stats, which is dicey.

I think that this is an unusual draft year or I've had a come to Jesus experience. Look at all of the desirable college SP's. Look at Zimmer & Papi. I like JD Davis too. I normally like the HS kids but as you've pointed out so many times that we don't seem to have a useful developmental program. The college guys are so good and polished that I wouldn't squawk if we went all college, if we got the right ones .

Thanks for sharing, Rocky. That's good stuff. PG is going to put Baseball America out of business.

So here is my question; two high flying college SP's that I, at best, had only modest knowledge about after last summer, Matt Imhof vs. Jake Stinnett. I see both of these guys in the 20th to 40th overall range (probably closer to 20 than 40).

Hypothetically, let's say we're at 31st overall in the draft and luckily (I don't think they both will be available come June), Jake Stinnett and Matt Imhof are on the board and Chris Antonetti ties your hands and says, "We're only going to take a college SP here and I only want Stinnett or Imhof. I like both both and I'll leave the decision to you...don't blow this like Grant would..."

I actually see Stinnett (the college senior, mind you) as the higher upside arm but I really like Imhof's ability to work vertically, and he's already showing advanced breaking stuff that I don't think Stinnett quite has yet. I'd take Imhof right now, but I can understand Stinnett -- I'm guessing Rocky you'd take Stinnett??

Thanks for sharing, Rocky. That's good stuff. PG is going to put Baseball America out of business.

So here is my question; two high flying college SP's that I, at best, had only modest knowledge about after last summer, Matt Imhof vs. Jake Stinnett. I see both of these guys in the 20th to 40th overall range (probably closer to 20 than 40).

Hypothetically, let's say we're at 31st overall in the draft and luckily (I don't think they both will be available come June), Jake Stinnett and Matt Imhof are on the board and Chris Antonetti ties your hands and says, "We're only going to take a college SP here and I only want Stinnett or Imhof. I like both both and I'll leave the decision to you...don't blow this like Grant would..."

I actually see Stinnett (the college senior, mind you) as the higher upside arm but I really like Imhof's ability to work vertically, and he's already showing advanced breaking stuff that I don't think Stinnett quite has yet. I'd take Imhof right now, but I can understand Stinnett -- I'm guessing Rocky you'd take Stinnett??

No chance the other would be there at 38, right? Have to get Papi then. So, who'd we get at 21? Zimmer or Lemond? This is fun.Part of the PG article on Stinnett that I didn't quote: "Had he been facing wooden bats, there would have been shards of wood all over the field throughout this game." I love that stuff. Everything he throws moves, & he can paint it. Yeah, I'd take Stinnett, especially at 31. I'm not even sure that Imhof won't be the better (safer) bet. His delivery is less complicated & smoother, plus he can really spin it. I think that Stinnett may have the better FB command. So, best case scenario, we end up with both, plus Zimmer & Papi.

You know what's interesting, at least to me, is that of those 4 (or 5 if you include Lemond) only Zimmer was considered a 1st rounder 6 months ago. Plus, the fact that I like all college guys this year is making me question my identity. Even my wife is looking like she's suspicious.

could be on the Indians board and would look great in the Indians system.. There are a LOT of arms in this draft.. The Indians would be wise to focus on the arms for what they are.. and what they can become.. There are some sleepers (mentioned in earlier postings: Guys/Sylvester) from Southern New Hampshire and Oklahoma Christian.. These can wait for later in the draft, but still in the top 10 rounds..