Seib & Wessel: Aaron David Miller on Syria Crisis

9/5/2013 4:49PM

In this full interview with WSJ's Jerry Seib, Aaron David Miller from the Woodrow Wilson Center discusses how a U.S. military strike might take shape in Syria, what kind of retaliation that could provoke from Damascus and what the crisis portends for America's allies.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

the ... on Jerry start with the Wall Street Journal ... With Washington consumed this week ... by Syria and the problems there ... happy be joined by Aaron David Miller a former negotiator on the Middle East for Democratic and Republican presidents ... and the vice president at the Wilson said today they are thanks for being with us ... due to your jury ... I'm you know obviously the big news of the weekend somewhat unexpected news was present Obama turning to Congress ... asking for authorization for a strike against Syria ... you know going to Congress can either type residents can ... worst rate in this hands by giving him more moral authority to act which you think it is in this case and did he do the right thing by turning to Congress ... you know I I think ... that it's it's actually been in both the new president already shoulder a little less we can realize that for a very tricky military operation there was nobody standby ... and the French are the only allies you know that something ... is not quite right ... with of mother nature so ... Cameron's face ... affected don't the majority of the American public according to most of the pole all seem to be against military intervention ... very uncertain dividing very partisan Congress ... and a very bad set of military options she was to me ... I think and its president that he knew he needed um he needed to support both to share and distribute ... the responsibility of the risk for what he's about undertaken in the same time I think he may well believe ... that job ... limitations that Congress will will set ... and their endorsement in a consensus stashing twenty oh two in chief ... of may also up prevent the United States from a ... game seven down the ... the rabbit hole that is clearly Syrian is likely to be Syria for ... quite some time ... so what do you think the allies may give this to the Saudis the Israelis others in the region do they see it is a sign of weakness and maybe a change in the American leadership reports that the president can do this or thing ... or is decided at least not to its extraordinary mean it to ... you know these two countries have serious and when you identify insider in serious and intense and volatile domestic politics even the authoritarian Kingdom to this ... and I'm ... thinking of fifteen dollars very sensitive to global constraints and so is the prime Minister Annette King Alan yet sure of their initial reaction ... what is I think is in front of the matters set and ... the EU NATO but appeared to be to them ... I've that the president somehow was ... trying to constrain his own hand ... or not to take military action in all but I think he can ... they refuse to accept the fact that this administration or any administration Democrat or Republican ... also have significant due to constraints ... so I think it's one of the anomalies you know it is strange that data ... to Republican President ... Bush's when I went to Congress for authorization ... for significant military action saying it to Democratic presidents ... Bill Clinton Barack Obama Clinton over Kosovo Obama over Libya ... I did not I think you have of ... an American president however is not to be aware yet NATO endorsement is not in the air where you have a country roughly the size as the state of Alaska ... with no WMD capacity though series air defense Noel ... this is a much more difficult proposition citing the president really get ... to persuade himself and every president needs an explanation for acting ... they needed a deeper bench on so I think that explains the initial low ... the initial per share and assume ... the authorization happens the strikers ... should the goal be to deter further chemical weapons use or to degrade ... the Syrian military ... I think it all end up doing both a lot in with their credit insurance let's be clear ... umm into a mandatory machine ... in about an existential struggle ... for self preservation mode hesitate for permitted ... to use chemical weapons again ... get ... in the US energy feels that it's a wrap ... and the opposition ... I'm making serious inroads ... project later domestic diva demands the series so I'm not sure ... over the long term ... as long as this story on savage war continues ... this will certainly as much to deter a retro when I think it will do and what I think of the administration plans ... his degree in capacity in India since then I've presumably going after chemical weapons stocks stores ... they will get ... delivery and projections ... which will will ... coincide with ... and ... seeing it as its military assets including troops in the ... mail last week started the fourth armored ... Division net debt down was responsible for deploying chemical weapons in his latest attack so ... I think under the guise of deterrence integrating on the chemical weapons ... target ... said ... target a managing its ... stride you additional damage will it be enough to fundamentally ... change the military equation ... will it be enough to chair the battlefield balanced and significant and serious way ... I'm not sure you know to quote Tony Zinni ... oh one and were done just right as the capacity to churn out to respond ... and the ministrations then have an opening to do more ... over time ... that that actually could ... be the result of of this military action but just to the Cleary if you ... move down the path of degrading the military assets he could use to deliver chemical weapons ... you can talk about ... taking and is therefore she can talk about taking on his missile capacity ... I even thought about getting airfields that's a pretty broad definition for action if you choose it to make that ... it is I think you're you're you're probably will see during his initial strike so what is limited to me ... the minute in comparison to what limited in comparison to well ... up close to the Iraq War shawl ... why ... and when they can be quite comforting and particularly in the grime that are set ... to include assets that could be legitimately considered either Delivery or protection systems ... for chemical weapons ... I think that's precisely what they're going to do well when ... we cannot afford an app easy and enjoy the impression ... after all it's can remember Jerry this is the most probably the most widely Telenet ever Chinese military mission in the history of modern warfare ... I mean the president over the last ten days ... since the twenty first of August ... both on and off the record ministrations vehicles to talk about the size the character ... and ... driven by a twenty four seven media with its graphics its May apps it's out ... accurate depictions of military deployments targeting the NASA been quite extraordinary ... I'm all concluded ... that a significant military strike ... he's going to occur ... if one does not carry ... this seems to me there will be a huge gap between ... the regimes intentions even even in these can find a chemical weapons deliveries protections ... protection systems ... and aam and their behavior and their interaction ... and I don't think this kind of want this kind of build up ... any congressional authorization ... painstakingly yet formulated ... I don't think the administration of four to it we can all ... you know their new refer to cycling obliquely to the potential for Syrian retaliation while ... the potential for retaliation worries you the most I don't see it I mean right said retaliation when I'm really talking about is is the willful use ... I hear of chemicals ... and get ... when AEO a brief interval ... just in order to show defiance ... or alternatively ... Amy ... injured in front of the conventional side ... opened up against civilian populations ... and frankly that seems to me ... unless the Iranians and Russians are counseling patients ... depending on how much damage this initial set of stripes dots ... in one night ... you know be breaking the silence of the cost ... to mention the series is ... opening a vicious offence ... and the conventional stuff ... not using them ... to demonstrate its defiance to demonstrate its capacity ... and to demonstrate that great powers ... medal in the affairs of small tribes at their own risk ... so ... I'm not talking about direct retaliation against American military assets ... not talking about Jay any started of ... last Update allies retaliating ... Isabel is deeply involved in overextended ... in whatever capacity to maintain a minute significant with respect to rockets and other high Jeffry weapons ... will be husband in reserve ... probably for America or anti Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facility ... I don't see the Syrians responded you're the United States Navy asymmetrically ... over time though to look for a way to respond to terror ... but no I do not see a direct retaliate when I see ... is the very real ... aspect of the major Syrian move ... against the opposition ... particularly targeting civilians ... you mention before I actually mentioned before that the views of our allies me ask you finely and the views on the other side the Iranians and the Russians the benefactors of the Syrian regime ... how do you think they're viewing what's going on in Washington right now and what conclusions you think they're gonna drawls Mobley ... from this exercise ... I think both are probably can find a better bet that outside were elements within the regime ... was so reckless and careless ... a new name will ... in the decline of chemical ... weapons ... that would cause this kind of casualty ... number one number two I think they wanna move away from its ... internationalize ... and certainly mill is rising ... the American role in these kinds of ... they were both more or less holding their own ... with respect to supporting outside and and finally Jerry I do not believe either ... intend to sacrifice their own security ... for much ... much currency frankly ... but to see this guy ... eighteen in the face of the determined under American military strike so ... I think of ... I'm sad is is vulnerable non ... it seems to ... me ... both ... morally and tactic ... as it as she's been probably didn't equally in the last two to use that as an argument that ... those who want a much more robust ... said military strikes ... will ... already taking advantage of this moment ... and really begin to check the data still balance the only problem that is what is the glass ceiling for military action is broken ... the pressure and expectations low rise ... and we can find ourselves ... from the air for sure ... involved in a prolonged campaign ... of military strikes and that it seems to me with no name with no jacket no clear set of objectives in mind ... and very few allies on the ground ... to support that certain action ... and that while not ... a dream estimates on the ground ... raises the very real ... analogy from Iraq and Afghanistan and that is what is the purpose ... of the use of American military or power how does it ... the city and state ... number one ... ending this war to hurt you and I ... I'm not ... leaving to go to the point where were the nineties get stuck with the check ... for Syria ... exactly ... well Aaron David Miller who was the center we've got a interesting days ahead aam thanks for joining us talk about today ... hope we can do it again ... when the smoke clears is a little that ... any stock during the well ...