2017 Final Four Future Odds

byJohn Ewing

We are down to four teams and this is your last chance to bet on college basketball futures before the season is over. With the Final Four set here are a few future bets to make before the national champion is crowned.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the NCAA championship at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds they cut down the nets. For example, North Carolina is the favorite at +168, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Tar Heels they would need to win it all 40.8% (which is 100/(145+100)) of the time. UNC is projected to win March Madness 24.1% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +145 odds.

Exact Finals Matchup

Gonzaga vs. North Carolina 11/10

Gonzaga vs. Oregon 13/5

South Carolina vs. North Carolina 15/4

South Carolina vs. Oregon 15/2

The only bet worth making is Gonzaga vs. Oregon. The Bulldogs are heavy favorites according to the simulation of reaching the title game and Oregon has nearly a 50% chance of upsetting North Carolina in the Final Four.

Exact Finals Outcome

UNC beats Gonzaga +248

Gonzaga beats UNC +325

Gonzaga beats Oregon +453

UNC beats South Carolina +507

Oregon beats Gonzaga +625

Oregon beats South Carolina +1162

South Carolina beats UNC +1303

South Carolina beats Oregon +1434

The best bet of the group is taking Gonzaga to beat Oregon +453 in the championship game. Once again, the Zags have the easiest path to the title game and Oregon is more likely to upset North Carolina than the oddsmakers think.

The most likely Finals matchup is Gonzaga vs. UNC. There is value betting that the Bulldogs would beat the Tar Heels (+325) in that potential title game. A longshot with some value is Oregon over South Carolina (+1162). The Ducks have already beaten Kansas and Louisville while the Gamecocks are on a Cinderella run.

Zags are heavy favorites in our simulations to win the title (51.4%). Mark Few’s team is the second betting favorite behind North Carolina yet according to KenPom they are the No. 1 team in the country (top 15 in offensive efficiency and No. 1 in defensive efficiency). Gonzaga is the only team offering value to win the title straight-up.