000
FXUS64 KAMA 130547
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1247 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be mainly southerly. They will start out
southeast through about 15Z and then shift more southerly
thereafter. BKN-OVC cigs in the 4 to 8kft range will start to
increase over the first 6 hours at KDHT and KGUY, and will make
its way down to KAMA around 12Z. VCSH possible at KGUY after 20Z.
May be something overnight at KGUY as well, but confidence not
high enough, and will amend as needed. Cig`s expected to improve
towards the end of the TAF period.
Weber
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 210 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/
DISCUSSION...
A couple of minor upper level short wave troughs will dive southeast
from the northern high plains into the central plains where they will
get caught up in a much larger circulation over the Great Lakes and
northeast. These disturbances are expected to bring just enough
lift and moisture with them to help produce a few showers across the
Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern and eastern Texas Panhandle late
tonight into Tuesday. Any rainfall will be light and a lot of it
may be virga.
An upper levelridge will then push east across the plains from the
Rockies on Wednesday. Temperatures will warm back above normal for
Wednesday as this ridge moves across. South to southwest winds will
also pick up.
The flow aloft will then become southwest on Thursday and this will
last through the rest of the forecast as a large trough over the
western U.S. slowly moves east. Temperatures Thursday and beyond
should remain above normal. It will be interesting to see if we can
get any rain to fall in the eastern parts of our CWA during this
time as minor waves move through this flow. If the low level
moisture can hold in the eastern areas, then there may be an outside
chance of some rain, but confidence is not high enough that the
moisture will hold in so will not insert pops at this time.
FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across
much of the region from Wednesday through next weekend. The western
Panhandles look to have the most chances of having critical fire
weather conditions during this time.
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 34 68 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 5 0
Beaver OK 31 71 45 83 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 31 70 43 77 38 / 0 0 0 5 0
Borger TX 36 71 48 81 47 / 0 0 0 5 0
Boys Ranch TX 34 71 44 81 43 / 0 0 0 5 0
Canyon TX 32 68 43 79 44 / 0 0 0 5 0
Clarendon TX 34 69 43 82 48 / 0 0 0 5 0
Dalhart TX 31 69 41 78 37 / 0 0 0 5 0
Guymon OK 33 71 45 81 42 / 0 0 0 5 0
Hereford TX 33 67 43 79 43 / 0 0 0 5 0
Lipscomb TX 32 69 46 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 34 68 46 81 46 / 0 0 0 5 0
Shamrock TX 34 69 45 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 35 70 45 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 5
&&
$$
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