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If they value their life and the lives of their children they might still desire those neighborhoods far away.

Crime happens anywhere. My parents raised me in urban areas and I turned out fine. I now raise my children splitting time between downtown Phoenix and SF. I have never heard gunshots and our family does not fear for their lives. My spouse and I are able to spend more time at home since we do not have long commutes. And our neighborhood still has rising home prices which I think is very amazing considering the current housing market in Phx!

Crime happens anywhere. My parents raised me in urban areas and I turned out fine. I now raise my children splitting time between downtown Phoenix and SF. I have never heard gunshots and our family does not fear for their lives. My spouse and I are able to spend more time at home since we do not have long commutes. And our neighborhood still has rising home prices which I think is very amazing considering the current housing market in Phx!

All the new areas receive many public subsidies also. Tempe Marketplace and Chandler Fashion Mall are two new developments that received over $40 million in public subsidies. Suprise offered $240 million to Westcor to build their new mall. I could go on and on. AZ is notorious for giving handouts in order to fuel their growth. It is not just limited to the downtown area as you make it sound!

All of these have a reasonable chance of success and returning amounts to the city coffers in excess of the subsidy. The history of downtown subsidies is one of throwing money down the toilet (Mercado, AZ Center, Renaissance Sq). They took out the only economically viable land uses there - flop houses and warehouses.

That's what I said in my first post - that some of the population went to the suburbs of those cities. I recall you were making the argument that the cities you named had established urban cores with employment opportunities and amenities that made them attractive to new residents. To which I said "baloney" and backed it, in the case of Chicago, with numbers showing people are fleeing an urban core you claim is so appealing.

I think that the vast majority of people all over the world do not want to live in a horse-and-buggy era urban core. The "LA model" is the one of choice for most. For what it's worth, the burbs of Chicago where the growth is happening are the same as here - tract homes by the same builders and malls with the same stores at every major intersection. The south and west add sunshine and job growth to the mix making them the magnet they are. We can disagree about the merits of the seasons or the landscape, but there is little evidence that the majority of people find much attractive about living in urban cores.

Suburban sprawl is a reality in basically every major U.S. city, that's true. But the center cores of those cities have remained their epicenters, and have maintained a large population of educated workers who live in gentrified central neighborhoods, with large central financial districts and entertainment/cultural enclaves. And real estate remains valuable in those places, because there's just a very limited amount of land there that can be built upon- that was my real point. The suburban spread we see basically came about because families 30-40 years ago wanted to have big houses and more land than they could have in the middle of cities, and automobiles made that possible. So even though in large cities, many families may live in suburbs, many of those people still consider the downtown nucleus of the city to be the center of the community, the largest population of their metro areas by far is still located within the central city limits, and many still commute to the downtowns of those cities for work & entertainment. The only people "fleeing" the urban core are people who want to raise families away from the hustle and bustle of city life. The younger educated white collar twenty- and thirty-something workforce who need to be near downtown for their jobs are certainly not fleeing those cities. That doesn't happen in Phoenix, because there aren't many jobs at all downtown, so no one needs to be there.

And if you don't think that growth is happening in downtown Chicago- think again. Go to Wicker Park sometime, and just look at how that area is gentrifying and changing. The yuppies have discovered that the commute is no longer worth it, and they're coming back in droves.

Phoenix is different in that sprawl isn't just a byproduct of people moving out from the center- there was never any "center" of any real size to begin with. So essentially, what I'm saying is that Phoenix is unique in that sprawl isn't any side effect of gradual outward migration of families- the whole place is one big suburb, with young, old, educated, white collar, working class, families, single people, all types, all dispersed every which direction. Why in the world would a young, unmarried professional without a family want to live in a tract house in the suburbs? I certainly wouldn't. Problem in Phoenix is, you don't have much choice, unless you want to live in Scottsdale, which is the closest thing to an urban living experience. I've been to lots of great cities in which, if you didn't leave the center of the city, you'd never know that sprawl was something that existed. In Phoenix, it's the ONLY thing that exists. That's what makes it different.

Crime happens anywhere. My parents raised me in urban areas and I turned out fine. I now raise my children splitting time between downtown Phoenix and SF. I have never heard gunshots and our family does not fear for their lives. My spouse and I are able to spend more time at home since we do not have long commutes. And our neighborhood still has rising home prices which I think is very amazing considering the current housing market in Phx!

You are speaking of living downtown and being near your work as though they are one and the same. That may be the case in your situation. I agree completely that life is better when you have a short commute. But if your company moved to a nice place with good schools and low crime like Gilbert, you could have the short commute and the advantages of living in a better place if you moved there too.

And that is the trend of the 21st century - residences, employment, schools, arts, recreation and services located in "urban villages" outside of the urban core (the "shopping" part of this is well ahead of the rest ) with areas of specialization like Scottsdale for restaurants, resorts and night life. The Phoenix area ,but not Phoenix city whose economic survival depends on selling everyone on the centralized model, is well situated to take advantage of this trend. The "talking" part of this is well underway in the newest valley boom cities. My personal opinion is that none of it will happen - not a vibrant downtown or complete urban villages. I think it will be more sprawl and more freeways. Under any scenario though, the Phoenix metro area will remain a high growth, desirable area well into the future.

You are speaking of living downtown and being near your work as though they are one and the same. That may be the case in your situation. I agree completely that life is better when you have a short commute. But if your company moved to a nice place with good schools and low crime like Gilbert, you could have the short commute and the advantages of living in a better place if you moved there too.

Unfortunately, you couldn't pay me to live in Gilbert or any other cookie cutter neighborhood. I love older homes and more established neighborhoods. I never want to live in a home bigger than 2000 sq ft. I like being able to eat out and support my neighbors while doing it. My kids attend excellent schools. My neighborhood has very low crime. Go a mile and it is a different story, but I like that my kids aren't sheltered and appreciate the nice lifestyle that we have. They go to school with kids richer than them and many that are poor and come to school hungry. Last time I checked, there were gangs and crime in Gilbert, too. Back to the main point of this thread, my area is not oversaturated with foreclosures and empty homes. No overbuilding going on here...which means prices are not bottoming out!

Unfortunately, you couldn't pay me to live in Gilbert or any other cookie cutter neighborhood. I love older homes and more established neighborhoods. I never want to live in a home bigger than 2000 sq ft. I like being able to eat out and support my neighbors while doing it. My kids attend excellent schools. My neighborhood has very low crime. Go a mile and it is a different story, but I like that my kids aren't sheltered and appreciate the nice lifestyle that we have. They go to school with kids richer than them and many that are poor and come to school hungry. Last time I checked, there were gangs and crime in Gilbert, too. Back to the main point of this thread, my area is not oversaturated with foreclosures and empty homes. No overbuilding going on here...which means prices are not bottoming out!

I know exactly of what you speak of there.........pretty much any community built after ca. 1986 turns me off as well.

I know exactly of what you speak of there.........pretty much any community built after ca. 1986 turns me off as well.

Well, charm is good sometimes, but it's usually the pretty expensive type of charm. A lot of people get turned off by old, worn-out and/or outdated stuff... pricey repairs waiting to happen... weird floor plans... swamp coolers... carports instead of garages...replacement of flooring and total kitchen remodeling... inadequate closets... not to mention polybutylene pipes! On the other hand, older houses can be in better/more conveniently located and established neighborhoods, have less stringent "rules" and usually way better landscaping (many times just due to natural maturity) and/or pools for the same price.

For one thing I tend to dislike 2 or more story houses------especially ones built very close together.

Another is that too many of today's domiciles are flimsy compared to many of the structures from even the 1970's.

Too; the 'gingerbread' trim on many of today's places-----especially the tiled roofs also turns me off.

Note that all of the above are my own preceptions.

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