Oscars 2015 - Who Will Win, Who Should Win, Who Comes Up Just Short

Tomorrow is the Academy Awards blah blah blah, here are my predictions. I'm kinda good at this but hardly perfect. I'll try to get to most categories that matter, so don't expect my take on short documentary subject. Let's begin.

Best Visual Effects

Great year for visual effects, and this is really a toss up between three of the nominees, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Interstellar and Guardians of the Galaxy. Each have their flaws but also the wow factor. I'm going with the one with the best performance done using motion cap, but I think they'll reward Nolan in one of the movie's few nominations.

Who Should Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Who Will Win: Interstellar

Runner Up: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Production Design

This one is too easy. While the others are your typical period piece nominations (sans Interstellar who probably doesn't deserve to be here), one is wholly original, with creative costumes and set design that is the core of the movie, not just it's aesthetic. Grand Budapest in a landslide.

Who Should Win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Who Will Win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Runner Up: Into The Woods

Best Original Song

Best song is always kinda a joke, since the best songs are usually deemed ineligible and when the Grammys can't get it right, how do you expect the Academy to. So they'll go with pick from a movie that was snubbed to high hell.

Who Should Win:"Everything is Awesome" from The Lego Movie

Who Will Win: "Glory" from Selma

Runner Up: "Everything is Awesome" from The Lego Movie

Best Cinematography

While it's not perfect (wonky shutter issues aside), Birdman is shot insanely well. Ida also looks great, The Grand Budapest Hotel is impeccable and Deakins is Deakins. But Birdman tho.

Who Should Win: Birdman

Who Will Win: Birdman

Runner Up: Ida/The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Animated Feature

The Lego Movie should have been nominated. Maybe it should have won. But it's not here so we will work with what we have. It's fine though. That movie made millions so they can cry all the way to the bank. As for this field, I think it's between two movies.

Who Should Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Who Will Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Runner Up: Big Hero 6

Best Original Screenplay

All five movies are very well written, so I can't complain. Glad to see Nightcrawler here. Any of these movies could win and I'm not gonna cry.

Who Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Who Will Win: Birdman

Runner Up: The Grand Budapest Hotel/Boyhood

Best Adapted Screenplay

Things get a little dicey here. But still mostly very well written. Well maybe not American Sniper. Which is a good movie you guys, so get off my back.

Who Should Win: Whiplash

Who Will Win: The Imitation Game

Runner Up: Whiplash/Inherent Vice

Best Supporting Actress

Terribly weak field, full of women who shouldn't be here, and not full of women who should be. The lack of love for Gone Girl and Nightcrawler among others is a shame. Did Meryl really need another nomination? Did Keira Knightley really do anything in The Imitation Game? I mean she was pretty good with what little she was given to do.

Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Runner Up: Emma Stone's eyes in Birdman

Best Supporting Actor

Four great nominations, like truly great. And one person who shouldn't even be in the same room with these guys. Well that's terribly harsh, he is an outstanding actor. Just not for this movie, that nobody gives less than two f*cks about. I'm talking about Duvall folks. I can't believe Tyler Perry was robbed.

Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Runner Up: Edward Norton in Birdman

Best Actress

Another somewhat weak field. It's really a pox on Hollywood. There needs to be better roles for women, especially leading, because this isn't cutting it.

Who Should Win: Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl

Who Will Win: Julianne Moore in Still Alice

Runner Up: Rosamund Pike/Reese Witherspoon

Best Actor

Brutal field. Just brutal. And no Oyelowo. No Gyllenhaal. No Fiennes. No Boseman. And Oscars will probably somehow f*ck this up.

Who Should Win: David Oyelowo in Selma err Michael Keaton in Birdman

Who Will Win: Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

Runner Up: Michael Keaton in Birdman

Best Director

It's a two man race. I could live with either or. I'm not gonna lose sleep over this. Both are remarkable directors and the case can be made ad nauseam for each.

Who Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Who Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman

Runner Up: Richard Linklater/Wes Anderson

Best Picture

I've seen all the movies, sans Whiplash. I loved every single one of them. Not a bad movie in the bunch. Flawed movies for sure, but not a bad movie amongst them. But not all movies are created equal and there are obviously movies that are better than the rest: Selma, Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel and Whiplash. The rest are very good and more or less deserve to be here. Well maybe not American Sniper. It's merely a pretty good movie among greats.