The bracket for this tournament was just released last night, so I figured I would post it on here. Some real interesting things going on in NJPW right now with 4 guys leaving for WWE and Kota Ibushi going free lance.

I think this tournament should be pretty interesting this year, there's a lot of directions they can go with it and a lot of storylines going into it. I think there's probably about 7 or 8 guys who have a chance to win the thing. The only key though is that the winner almost has to challenge Okada since he's not going to get too many title defenses and they'll want a good match for him at Invasion Attack.

While the tournament winner gets to choose their title shot, between the Heavyweight, Intercontinental, and NEVER championships, I'm with you in thinking that they pretty much have to go with the winner challenging Okada. Having multiple main event titles was fine when they had two aces running around, and Nakamura in his own little side-universe, but they just cemented Okada as THE Ace. Now is the time to consolidate around him and the Heavyweight title, as the main event.

With that said, I think potential winners are down to four: Naito, Ishii (shudder), Nagata, and Elgin. Naito not main eventing the Tokyo Dome with Okada would be surprising. One way to get there is for him to win the title now, and have Okada run the G1 again. Not my preferred method, but it's definitely there. If they're ever going to get anything out of Ishii as a main eventer, they have to go now, before his arm falls off. I would throw up i it happened, but he'd actually be a good transitional champ (so gross). Nagata is leading the charge for a "third generation revival", as the 40-somethings look to fill back in the gap that the departing talent created. He's a big draw, and hasn't had a title shot in years, so that's a definite possibility. Finally, Michael Elgin has exploded onto the landscape, and called out Okada at the ROH/NJPW shows that just happened. He's the only one of the four that I would favour Okada retaining against, at Invasion Attack.

If I'm laying down actual predictions on matches, I could go either way on Tanahashi/Fale, as that's probably a program through to Dominion, with the winner falling to Elgin in the second round, who will assuredly go over Tenzan.
Gotta figure Makabe will make it past Tonga, with the following quarterfinal being really open. If Nagata's not winning the tournament, he's probably not making the semi-finals, and most likely would fall right to Goto. Makabe/Goto for the right to face Elgin is a coin toss. I'll take Goto, because he's "Mr. NJC". So, whomever wins Nagata/Goto is my semi-finalist, from that quarter of the bracket.
I'll take Kojima over Honma, for sure, not because Honma's a jobber (he still is, mostly), but because TenCozy getting a Tag title shot against GBH is a no-brainer. And fuck it, I'm going with Yano to run all the way to the semi-finals, because he's the best 5-minute-or-less match in the company (possibly in the world), and that's what the NJC semi-finals are all about.
Finally, Ishii/Naito is 100% going to happen in the quarter finals, and would be the most logical Korakuen Hall main event of the bunch. Carve that one in stone. If one of these guys isn't winning the tournament, then this is a program they could run with until the G1, when it's time to put Naito over the moon. I'll begrudgingly take Ishii to the semi-finals.

Okay, so that brings me to semi-finals of Elgin vs. Nagata/Goto, and Yano vs. Ishii. Simply for the sake of making it sporting, I'll eliminate Nagata, although that goes against my heart. Elgin/Goto will really hinge on how ready they are to put money behind Elgin. If they have cold feet, then Goto is always a safe guy to put through to a big tournament match. I'll take Big Mike, though, as I don't see any reason to be hesitant of the guy. Yano/Ishii is a laugher, as it should be, leaving Michael Elgin vs. Tomohiro Ishii as my predicted final. Going back to what I initially said about Ishii, if they're ever going to get something out of him, the time to do it is now, so against everything my heart and brain say about the guy, and with great pain, I am picking Ishii as the New Japan Cup winner, to challenge Kazuchika Okada in the Sumo Hall.

I agree a lot with what you say barring Makabe prevailing over Tama Tonga and I'll get to your point of transitioning the belt to Naito as I think that is a really interesting one (but my gut thinks that him beating Okada at Dominion is the smart play here). Here's some of my thoughts and differences from what you think Greg:

Big Mike Elgin has a good chance at the semifinals.

Elgin did just sign on for two years to work for NJPW and that will help him see out a win over Hiroyoshi Tenzan. But that's where the questions in his bracket start to fly around. Elgin would face the winner of Tanahashi and Fale, which in its own right presents some weirdness. Bad Luck Fale is the guy they go to for beating top guys and it having very little impact on how people view their top guys. Tanahashi is currently belabored with a bum shoulder and wrestling 4 singles matches in 8 days on a bad shoulder probably shouldn't be high on his priority list.

Much in the same way Okada was unceremoniously beaten by Bad Luck Fale last year, I think that will be Tanahashi's turn this year, as Tana feuds with the Bullet Club to get the Intercontinental Title from Kenny Omega. That leaves Fale/Elgin, which is a big hoss match for sure. I find this match to be quite unpredictable given the state of the semifinalist they would face, which would be either Nagata or Goto. If it's Goto, Elgin makes the most sense, if it's Nagata, then Fale makes the most sense.

How will the old guard do?

Yuji Nagata cut an impassioned promo at the New Beginning in Osaka (I believe) about how it was time for the Old Guard to stand up and do something in New Japan. And what do you know, we have Satoshi Kojima and Yuji Nagata on different sides of the brackets. Now, this could be a classic distraction that NJPW uses consistently or it could mean something more.

Yuji Nagata's pairing with Hirooki Goto has such a weird feeling to it that I can't really describe. Goto has been plummeting towards rock bottom in recent times since he lost to Okada and Okada has even offered Goto a chance to join CHAOS to take Nakamura's spot. Goto really is the wild card to all of this, even despite his recent unsatisfying and uneventful match with Okada, because they could have him descend further to rock bottom and join Okada, or they could have him reascend to title challenger as there really aren't many other guys in NJPW who can do that.

Satoshi Kojima has a match against Tomoaki Honma that really doesn't make much sense in any way they present it. I would imagine that Kojima wins as it doesn't make much sense for them to do much else other than possibly give Honma a sympathetic run to the semis and lose to someone like Naito and his cronies. But this to me seems set up to give Tencozy a chance at the Tag Titles in the future and I would guess that it probably happens at Invasion Attack.

Tama Tonga will probably beat Togi Makabe or at the very least set up his mystery partner to take on GBH.

This one actually stands out to me as one of the more obvious results in the NJC. Tama Tonga has said he's bringing in a mystery partner to challenge GBH for the Tag Titles and for that to happen, it doesn't make sense for him to do the job here. In fact, it probably makes the most sense for Tonga to win this match with the help of his mystery partner, setting up their Tag Title match at Invasion Attack or possibly Wrestling Dontaku.

The only wrench in this plan is what they do with Kojima/Honma and tbh that semifinal section of the bracket is a complete cluster fuck. There's no rhyme or reason to Kojima/Honma and Yano/Takahashi at all but that section is actually really important because it will help shape a lot. I think Yano coming out of this is possible and I'd put his odds with Kojima as the most likely to do it, as there really is no point for Honma to advance far and I can't be bothered to put much effort behind thinking about Yujiro Takahashi until he actually does.

What on earth do they do with Tetsuya Naito and when will he get his championship match?

Naito's a sure quarterfinalist, having a match with the always beatable member of CHAOS, YOSHI-HASHI. However, his tournament goes into some weirdness from there, as Greg noted, Tomohiro Ishii is going to be awaiting him in the quarterfinals. From this point in the tournament, easily the most flexible man for what they want/need is going to be Tetsuya Naito, since he's angered so many people in his route to disrespect New Japan Pro Wrestling. Naito has been fucking with everything and everyone, from Tanahashi and Elgin, to Milano Collection AT, to Young Lions, to Atlantis and CMLL, to even more recently CHAOS, he really doesn't care. He can go out to literally any collection of opponents this tournament can throw at him bar EVIL, and that's because EVIL has to lose to Tomohiro Ishii.

The worst kept secret in NJPW is that Tetsuya Naito is going to be getting a championship match sometime in the next 6-10 months, whether it's at Dominion or Wrestle Kingdom. Greg posted an interesting theory that they can do a variety of things with the title, one of which is to transition the title from Okada to someone else, then put it on Naito from there. The other is to do the title match at Dominion with a Naito win or do the title match at Wrestle Kingdom for the first time (well first time since 2014 anyway). I really don't know where I stand on it, but there's very few guys on the NJPW roster that I think would be good as transitional champs, the best of them would be Yuji Nagata, as his identification with NJPW is probably the most palpable of all realistic candidates, but it's a very small list. Additionally, it's a list of wrestlers that don't really have any business beating Okada as Okada was just established as the ace.

I think for Okada's first chase in his run as the actual ace of New Japan, he should probably be trying to avenge someone dare crossing his path and beating him for the title. That is far more interesting for me than the other alternatives. For me, I'd have Naito beat Okada for the belt at Dominion, but that's just my opinion. As for the bracket, we all have Ishii/Naito in the quarters, I'm going to go with Ishii beating Naito in the quarters. I think Ishii in the semifinals makes a lot of sense here, as I think they will try to transition him to the Intercontinental Title. I don't believe Ishii would challenge Okada as they are both with CHAOS, which makes him an unlikely winner for the whole thing, as I believe that Okada's the one getting a challenger here.

Who wins the thing?

I'm going to pick Yuji Nagata to win the New Japan Cup and headline Invasion Attack tentatively. I may change this pick to be honest. I have no faith in my picks for this promotion right now with so much change occurring. Nagata survives against Bad Luck Fale, channeling his inner fighting spirit just one last time. In the final he faces Tomohiro Ishii (who beats Toru Yano), and Nagata wins.

Ah yes. I forgot about Tonga getting a partner to challenge GBH. That is a good call. In that case, Honma might make it past Kojima, simply to get Honma vs. Yano, which would simply be the greatest thing that has ever happened in wrestling.

Two things regarding my call of Ishii/Elgin in the finals:

Since there isn't necessarily a ready challenger for the IC title, I'm thinking they might give the NJC runner-up that slot, at Invasion Attack. Elgin having gotten involved in the match that crowned Omega champion makes him a logical choice as that challenger.

You mention that Ishii is an unlikely winner, because both he & Okada are in CHAOS. That's something that I feel works FOR the match, not against. CHAOS is Nakamura's group, and with him gone, there's nothing holding them together. More than anyone else, Ishii was Shinsuke's boy, and has built no attachment to Okada. My thought is that CHAOS is in for major changes, or a full rebranding (as Bullet Club/Elite are), and Ishii breaking off on his own (perhaps to team up with Shibata or Goto, who just separated) seems as likely a place to start as any.

I think it's probably likely that both Honma and Makabe lose in the first round. Tag champs have a historically poor record in the New Japan Cup and they can set up multiple challengers. I really wouldn't put it beyond them to have Makabe beat Tonga but Tonga and his mystery partner beat down Makabe after the match, which would probably lead to Goto/Makabe in this scenario I think.

It should also be worth noting that Goto and Nagata's roles are reversed this year coming into the New Japan Cup. Last year, Nagata put up a spirited challenge to Shinsuke Nakamura for the Intercontinental Title at New Beginning in Sendai but fell short, then faced Hirooki Goto in Round 1. This year, Goto challenged Okada at New Beginning in Osaka but fell short, now is facing Yuji Nagata in Round 1.

Interesting point regarding Ishii, they could give the loser a chance a chance at the IC Title. Which would actually fit where I have Ishii's spot on this card going to. I'm still not convinced in an Ishii/Okada Title match, though I know a lot of people this side of the globe would be thrilled with it since he's the bees knees to them. I share more of your opinion Greg on Tomohiro Ishii. I don't really get what all the fuss is about and frankly I found his matches with Katsuyori Shibata, while wacky and crazy in all their glory, to be pretty pointless.

I mean he's a perfectly fine worker, he executes his style of match well, it's just a completely uninteresting style to me. Even though Shibata has some similarities in terms of how he works a match, he is far more versatile imo and way better. Glad he's getting more of a singles push.

There were two New Beginning PPVs (Osaka & Niigata), that should be available through torrent sites, and probably somewhere on Dailymotion, or the like. I'm a subscriber to http://www.njpwworld.com, so I haven't gone searching for pirated copies in a long, long time.

I went onto the njpw website yesterday before I posted on here but it all seemed a bit difficult, I use dailymotion often so for the time being I think I will use that. I'm AbiG of a pedestrian when it comes to there shows, so what PPVs am I looking for and is there any regular weekly showing or not?

New Japan does have a weekly show, but I don't know the name of it. The nextbig event is the New Japan Cup, followed by Invasion Attack. And if you've never seen a G1 climax tournament, you're in for a he'll of a summer.

If you don't have New Japan World, the people at dailymotion are pretty prompt about uploading stuff. Watching live though, I don't know any live broadcast sites, and I'm not usually up at 2 am to look for one.

Creepster wrote:Il give this new Japan cup a go on dailymotion and see where I go

This is actually a pretty good starting point for NJPW. New Beginning programs were set up over Fantasticamania and Road to New Beginning shows, and those have concluded. The New Japan Cup is a good starting point because it should have some pretty good matches considering the participants and will lead to the stories for Invasion Attack.

You won't have to worry about catching up on too much, it's a blank slate right now.

Japanese wrestling isn't done with weekly TV shows, like in the west. You really can just watch the PPVs, and not be missing anything. There are often a couple little shows in between, where they'll run a couple setup angles for PPV matches, but it's all pretty basic. I just read results for the "Road to ______" shows, here: http://puroresuspirit.net/category/resu ... w-results/

- Okada needs a guy who can step in, challenge, and give a legitimately good match here. Kojima is someone who can no doubt do that and hasn't been taking pins in his tag team with Tenzan for a while. I think they can build him up and the tournament is kind of set up for him to do that. Having him beat Naito and Fale is a good way to build him some legitimacy on the way to the NJC.

- I have Michael Elgin losing to Fale, basically because it won't impact Elgin to lose that match, and they can definitely have Omega come in and screw Elgin out of the opportunity to beat Fale. Use the Road to Shows to setup the Intercontinental Title match. Basically, I think there needs to be a World and IC Title match at this show to give something for both champions. I think moving Elgin up for an IC opportunity makes a lot of sense for this show.

- I don't feel comfortable about Tonga & Makabe because they could easily just have Tonga lose, have him get the better of Makabe post match, and eventually build up the Tonga, Mystery Partner tag team over time. But the thing is they can beat Makabe and Honma really whenever they want and both guys will still get legit reactions. I think the idea of a new partner being too much for them to overcome initially, but overcome later is a pretty good plan.

- I solely have Tanahashi/Fale to get Tana his win back over Fale from R1, and he can begin to use that win as a springboard to challenge Omega for the IC Title again at Dominion.

- I changed Naito to a semifinalist, I think he makes sense to give a featured match to at the Finals and a match with Kojima can build to this Old Guard/Ingobernables idea in my head. Naito disrespects Kojima and uses the Road to Invasion Attack shows to setup a match with the Old Guard given how much he disrespects NJPW and guys like Milano. They could have a pretty heated 6 man I believe, BUSHI can eat the pin and they can keep Naito out as the main focus until Dominion or G1.

FWIW, I think the main event for Wrestling Dontaku is going to be Yuji Nagata vs. Katsuyori Shibata for the NEVER Title, small venue, should sell out and it's a decent headline. They had no problem putting Nagata in the main for Sendai in a small arena last year, makes sense to do it again imo. My two main matches right now for Dominion are:

I've sort of changed course on Naito for Dominion. I think him challenging Okada for the title seems so weird since he says he doesn't care about this sort of stuff. I think Naito running through the G1 is the best option on the table.