Zhang, with only 4 points in her first event, cannot make the finals no matter what she does here.

That is very true. But this event is still important to Caroline for 3 reasons. She needs a bigger maximum score to ensure 2 GP events next year, she needs a confidence boost going into Nationals, and she has to show the USFSA that she is on an upward spiral.

In ladies, the ones to watch are Lacoste and Murakami. They each have 11 points and need a silver here to have a shot at the finals.

Kostner only needs to finish 4th. Flatt will secure a spot in the finals for sure with 2nd and is probably in with 3rd.

Zhang, with only 4 points in her first event, cannot make the finals no matter what she does here.

If Lacoste can land the 3Lo+3Lo clean in the SP, plus the 3Lz, she could surprise a lot of the girls there. She received very high levels on her non-jump elements even last year, a lot of Level 4 on the GP Circuit. My money is on her to succeed Joannie Rochette in Canada should Joannie decides to retire on a de facto basis.

I don't think we can count on Kostner getting 4th or better, she can still bomb way out of the top 4.

I think Murakami can skate much better than she did at NHK. If she does I see her with a podium finish and possibly winning.
I don't think Flatt can beat a cleaner Murakami unless she can bring her 3x3's and skate well herself.

That said Murakami is young and I can't try to predict how she will skate - which is for another thread anyway.

I will definitely be watching Caro and think she is experienced enough to produce a top four finish which takes her to the final. Any word on Caro's condition? Is her knee still bothering her?

Intriguing that Denney/Barret are thought of as elite. In terms of the performances this season, they haven't showcased that. They had the lowest base value at NHK and very little GOE. Now, I don't know how emblematic that'll be of this season (I suspect that they'll increase that definitely) but they're against teams that will have a 3-5 point advantage base value wise. They have a lot to improve on, but right now, they're off. They'd have to score extremely well to really regain momentum and have a hope of getting into the GPF - right now, if Sui/Han and M-T/M get in the top four, they'll both be ahead of D/B (provided D/B don't win, of course). Right now, there is no such think as an elite American pairs team. That stated, I can't wait to see Zhang/Toth. I've heard good things about this team and I really liked one of their performances I saw on youtube. They're just up from juniors. And it'll be interesting to see if Stoblova/Klimov can make a mark. Unlike the other "junior-masquerading-as-senior" teams they really have no hope of making it to worlds (depth in Russia being what it is).

In dance, the big race to watch for is W/P vs Shibs vs C/P. The race is on for the final GPF slot, and perception. C/P are assured a slot in the GPF (knock on wood), but W/P could make a really big statement towards beating them at Nationals if they beat them here.

I'm not convinced the home ice is the biggest advantage for the US skaters as it is in other countries.