America still has significant resources, natural resources, intellectual resources, infrastructure resources, human resources. America has lots of "potential". So I don't want to be too negative on things, BUT if you are thinking that a great renaissance is right around the corner, you should assess the reality of the current situation.

Further to that, because we as a country have refused to fix the fundamental problems, and instead have chosen to try to print prosperity and a number of other completely dysfunctional coping strategies (like socialism), those simply mean that any Turnaround is still far away. Here are 34 reality checks.

The following are 34 signs that America is in decline…#1 According to the World Bank, U.S. GDP accounted for 31.8 percent of all global economic activity in 2001. That number dropped to 21.6 percent in 2011. That is not just a decline – that is a freefall. Just check out the chart in this article.#2 According to The Economist, the United States was the best place in the world to be born into back in 1988. Today, the United States is only tied for 16th place.#3 The United States has fallen in the global economic competitiveness rankings compiled by the World Economic Forum for four years in a row.#4 According to the Wall Street Journal, of the 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders, half of them plan to reduce capital expenditures in coming months.#5 More than three times as many new homes were sold in the United States in 2005 as will be sold in 2012.#6 America once had the greatest manufacturing
cities on the face of the earth. Now many of our formerly great
manufacturing cities have degenerated into festering hellholes. For example, the city of Detroit is on the verge of financial collapse, and one state lawmaker is now saying that “dissolving Detroit” should be looked at as an option.#7 In 2007, the unemployment rate for the 20 to 29
age bracket was about 6.5 percent. Today, the unemployment rate for
that same age group is about 13 percent.#8 Back in 1950, more than 80 percent of all men in the United States had jobs. Today, less than 65 percent of all men in the United States have jobs.#9 If you can believe it, approximately one out of every four American workers makes 10 dollars an hour or less.#10 Sadly, 60 percent of the jobs lost during the last recession were mid-wage jobs, but 58 percent of the jobs created since then have been low wage jobs.#11 Median household income in America has fallen for four consecutive years. Overall, it has declined by over $4000 during that time span.#12 The U.S. trade deficit with China during 2011 was 28 times larger than it was back in 1990.#13 Incredibly, more than 56,000 manufacturing
facilities in the United States have been shut down since 2001. During
2010, manufacturing facilities were shutting down at the rate of 23 per day. How can anyone say that “things are getting better” when our economic infrastructure is being absolutely gutted?#14 Back in early 2005, the average price of a gallon of gasoline was less than 2 dollars a gallon. During 2012, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has been $3.63.#15 In 1999, 64.1 percent of all Americans were covered by employment-based health insurance. Today, only 55.1 percent are covered by employment-based health insurance.#16 As I have written about previously, 61 percent of all Americans were “middle income” back in 1971 according to the Pew Research Center. Today, only 51 percent of all Americans are “middle income”.#17 There are now 20.2 million Americans that spend more than half of their incomes on housing. That represents a 46 percent increase from 2001.#18 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the poverty rate for children living in the United States is about 22 percent.#19 Back in 1983, the bottom 95 percent of all
income earners in the United States had 62 cents of debt for every
dollar that they earned. By 2007, that figure had soared to $1.48.#20 Total home mortgage debt in the United States is now about 5 times larger than it was just 20 years ago.#21 Total credit card debt in the United States is now more than 8 times larger than it was just 30 years ago.#22 The value of the U.S. dollar has declined by more than 96 percent since the Federal Reserve was first created.#23 According to one survey, 29 percent of all Americans in the 25 to 34 year old age bracket are still living with their parents.#24 Back in 1950, 78 percent of all households in the United States contained a married couple. Today, that number has declined to 48 percent.#25 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 49 percent of all Americans live in a home that receives direct monetary benefits from the federal government. Back in 1983, less than a third of all Americans lived in a home that received direct monetary benefits from the federal government.#26 In 1980, government transfer payments accounted for just 11.7 percent of all income. Today, government transfer payments account for more than 18 percent of all income.#27 In November 2008, 30.8 million Americans were on food stamps. Today, 47.1 million Americans are on food stamps.#28 Right now, one out of every four American children is on food stamps.#29 As I wrote about the other day, according to one calculation the
number of Americans on food stamps now exceeds the combined populations
of “Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia,
Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska,
Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode
Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming.”#30 Back in 1965, only one out of every 50 Americans was on Medicaid. Today, one out of every 6 Americans is on Medicaid, and things are about to get a whole lot worse. It is being projected that Obamacare will add 16 million more Americans to the Medicaid rolls.#31 In 2001, the U.S. national debt was less than 6 trillion dollars. Today, it is over 16 trillion dollars and it is increasing by more than 100 million dollars every single hour.#32 The U.S. national debt is now more than 23 times larger than it was when Jimmy Carter became president.#33 According to a PBS report from earlier this year, U.S. households that make $13,000 or less per year spend 9 percent of their incomes on lottery tickets. Could that possibly be accurate? Are people really that foolish?#34 As the U.S. economy has declined, the American
people have been downing more antidepressants and other prescription
drugs than ever before. In fact, the American people spent 60 billion dollars more on prescription drugs in 2010 than they did in 2005.
So what are our “leaders” doing about all of this?
Not much.
They just continue to insist that everything is “just fine”.
Sadly, the truth is that they live in a world that is very different from most of the rest of us.
Barack Obama is getting ready to take a 20 day vacation to Hawaii.
When was the last time you got to take a 20 day vacation?
And most of our “leaders” have no idea what it is like to struggle from month to month on a paycheck.
Overall, more than half of the members of Congress are millionaires. We are led by wealthy men who are serving the interests of other wealthy men.
But the problem with our system is not limited to the president and
the members of Congress. The truth is that the political system in
America has become a colossal beast that just continues to grow no
matter who is in power. The political establishment of both parties is
totally dependent on this beast, and they will continue to feed it and
serve it because it has been very good to them. The following is from
an outstanding article by Steve McCann…

Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.Do not look for order where order does
not exist. Do not overlook the large role chance takes in any
speculation. Study information in whatever speculative medium to improve
chances and take your best shot. Stay light on your feet ready to jump
this way or that. You are dealing with chaos, as long as you are alert
to that fact you can keep yourself from getting hurt.

Internal Monolog goes:

“OK. I’ve done my homework as well as I
know how. I think this bet can pay off for me. But since I cannot see or
control all the random events that will affect what happens to my
money. I know the chance of me being wrong is large. Therefore I will
stay light on my feet, ready to jump this way or that when whatever is
going to happen happens."Minor Axiom V

Beware the historians trap.

The Historian’s trap is a particular kind
of orderly illusion. It is based on the age-old but entirely
unwarranted belief that history repeats itself. People who hold this
belief - which is to say perhaps ninety-nine out of every hundred people
on earth - believe as a corollary proposition that the orderly
repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain
situations.... Don’t fall into this trap. It is true that history
repeats itself sometimes, but most often it doesn’t, and in any case it
never does so in a reliable enough way that you can prudently bet money
on it.Minor Axiom Vl

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Silver may be getting traction on the way to my predicted year end box. I always use rectangular boxes to indicate "target zone". I have found that time horizontal direction is harder to guess, sometimes things take longer than you would think.

And then move in ES today, an effective stop sweep, as bulls set stops "not too tight" they needed a pretty good dive orchetrated to pop those stops, and they did it, look at the volume.

USD DX kind of says bounce "up", which means equities down, and Vix, including my patented VOS indicator is at all time lows. So finding mojo in the downside makes sense for me today, tomorrow, and keeping in the mind the eclipse Puetz window.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Taking a short now may need some tolerance for pain, I kind of think the Magic Hand may ramp a day or two to shake out weak bears, prior to a Puetz crash, see below. The Puetz window doesn't guarantee a crash, but a big crash almost needs a Puetz window, get it?

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
The solar eclipse was 2 weeks ago, the lunar eclipse is

The start of the eclipse will not be visible to the naked eye. For about 30 minutes before and after the eclipse’s maximum, a light grey shading will be seen along the moon’s northern limb.

Time zone converter
The World Clock’s Time Zone Converter helps you find when the eclipse will occur in your local time. Universal Time (UT), a timescale based on the Earth’s rotation, is about 0.65 seconds behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) during most of November 2012.

UTC is in the time zone converter.
Location Local time Time zone UTC offset
UTC ( ) Wednesday,

I will want to check my put call indicators and derivatives. This could get racy.

Panicky stock holders, locking in cap gains before higher taxes in 2013, and gold turning to a "Class One Asset" per Basel 3 (semi secret banking cartel) on Jan 1, 2013, i.e. gold as good as money in terms of collateral for loans.

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