Tag: growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its estimates for global growth on Monday, warning that the expansion seen in recent years is losing momentum. The Fund now projects a 3.5 percent growth rate worldwide for 2019 and 3.6 percent for 2020. These are 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points below its last forecasts in October — making it the second downturn revision in three months. In October, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts on the back of increased trade tariffs between China and th

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its estimates for global growth on Monday, warning that the expansion seen in recent years is losing momentum.

The Fund now projects a 3.5 percent growth rate worldwide for 2019 and 3.6 percent for 2020. These are 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points below its last forecasts in October — making it the second downturn revision in three months.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the IMF’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde said: “After two years of solid expansion, the world economy is growing more slowly than expected and risks are rising. But even as the economy continues to move ahead … it is facing significantly higher risks.”

In October, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts on the back of increased trade tariffs between China and the United States. It said the latest revision is due in part to carry over from last year, mentioning weakness for German auto manufacturers due to new fuel emission standards, and soft domestic demand in Italy after recent sovereign and financial risks. But the IMF also highlighted weakening sentiment in the global financial markets and a contraction in Turkey that’s now projected to be deeper than anticipated.

According to the Fund, advanced economies have been on a declining path in terms of growth and this is taking place more rapidly than previously thought. These countries are forecast to grow 2 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2020.

At the same time, there’s also been a growth slowdown in emerging economies. The IMF projects a 4.5 percent growth rate in 2019, from 4.6 percent in 2018, before improving to 4.9 percent in 2020.

Investment strategies involving China are coming under scrutiny amid political and security-related conflicts between Beijing and major Western economies, as well as a predicted growth slowdown for the world’s second-largest economy. But Canada’s massive pension fund, among the world’s top 10 in terms of size, is sticking to plans to expand its holdings there. Mark Machin, president and chief executive of Canada’s Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), sees the country’s potential to diversify h

Investment strategies involving China are coming under scrutiny amid political and security-related conflicts between Beijing and major Western economies, as well as a predicted growth slowdown for the world’s second-largest economy.

But Canada’s massive pension fund, among the world’s top 10 in terms of size, is sticking to plans to expand its holdings there.

“China is today the second-largest economy in the world, the second-largest equity market in the world, the third-largest bond market in world, and we have the ability to diversify into it,” he told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“So it’s more of a diversification call than a market call for the next few weeks or months … It’s much longer-term and it’s about diversification.”

China’s growth outlook has been dampened by weakened domestic demand and the trade war with Washington that’s hit exports. A recent Reuters poll found that the country’s growth is expected to slow to 6.3 percent this year from an expected 6.6 percent in 2018, which would be the lowest in 29 years. That figure was 6.9 percent in 2017.

The CPPIB, with $280 billion in assets under management as of last summer, plans to more than double its assets allocated to China by 2025 from a current 7.6 percent of its portfolio to up to 20 percent, it announced last August.

The Middle East’s largest public company is expanding its investments in China despite an expected slowdown in the country’s economic growth, its CEO said Monday. Investors and analysts have raised concern over China’s growth outlook, which has been dampened by weakened domestic demand and the trade war with Washington that’s hit exports. But SABIC, which is also the fourth-largest petrochemicals producer in the world, plans to keep investing in China. “I think Asia is growing and China is reall

The Middle East’s largest public company is expanding its investments in China despite an expected slowdown in the country’s economic growth, its CEO said Monday.

Speaking to CNBC during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Yousef Al-Benyan, chief executive of Saudi Arabian petrochemicals manufacturer SABIC, dismissed growing concerns about the future of the world’s second-largest economy.

“If you are a long-term player I think this is normal in any economy, they have to go through sometimes a bumpy road. And that is, I think, what we experienced with China today,” Al-Benyan told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble, referencing the ongoing trade war between China and the U.S. That, he said, “has really influenced some of the growth we expect out of China, but from a SABIC perspective we look at China as long term,” he said.

Investors and analysts have raised concern over China’s growth outlook, which has been dampened by weakened domestic demand and the trade war with Washington that’s hit exports. A recent Reuters poll found that the country’s growth is expected to slow to 6.3 percent this year from an expected 6.6 percent in 2018, which would be the lowest in 29 years. That figure was 6.9 percent in 2017.

But SABIC, which is also the fourth-largest petrochemicals producer in the world, plans to keep investing in China.

“I think Asia is growing and China is really driving this growth,” Al-Benyan said. “That is why we have improved our presence in China specifically, we are trying to put even more investment in China because we think the growth is there.”

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index sank 0.3 percent as traders kicked off Monday’s session, with most sectors and major bourses in the red. Market players monitored news of slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy. It’s the latest sign of weakness in the Chinese economy, and comes at a critical time in Beijing’s trade battle with the United States. Meanwhile, traders await British Prime Minister Theresa May’s announcement of a “Plan B” for Brexit which she is due to present in parliame

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index sank 0.3 percent as traders kicked off Monday’s session, with most sectors and major bourses in the red.

Market players monitored news of slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Official data published Monday said China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 grew 6.6 percent from the previous year, in line with analyst expectations but at its most sluggish rate in almost three decades.

It’s the latest sign of weakness in the Chinese economy, and comes at a critical time in Beijing’s trade battle with the United States. The two countries have been locked in a tense sparring of tariffs since the start of last year, but are currently trying to prevent any further escalation over the course of a 90-day truce.

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump said a trade deal with China “could very well happen,” but denied what he called “false reports” that the U.S. was considering lifting duties on Chinese imports.

Meanwhile, traders await British Prime Minister Theresa May’s announcement of a “Plan B” for Brexit which she is due to present in parliament later on Monday.

Last week, U.K. lawmakers rejected May’s EU withdrawal agreement, an event that was largely expected. The prime minister subsequently won a confidence vote that was tabled by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, albeit by a slim margin of 19 votes.

Sterling was barely changed in early morning trade, trading just below the flatline at $1.2871.

In corporate news, Logitech is due to report third-quarter results on Monday.

In terms of data, Germany’s December Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released at 2 a.m. ET.

Asia Pacific markets started the trading week with gains despite China reporting that its economy grew at the lowest official pace in 28 years. Fourth quarter GDP growth was 6.4 percent, which was also in line with expectations. While Beijing’s official GDP figures are seen as one of the crucial indicators of China’s economic health, many outside experts have expressed skepticism about the veracity of the numbers. “Falling producer prices and new export orders point to a slowdown in China’s grow

Asia Pacific markets started the trading week with gains despite China reporting that its economy grew at the lowest official pace in 28 years.

The world’s second-largest economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, which matched analysts’ expectations, and was lower than a revised 6.8 percent growth in 2017. Fourth quarter GDP growth was 6.4 percent, which was also in line with expectations.

“I think what we’re seeing actually in the fourth quarter is that while the economy is decelerating, we actually still have some of the supports,” Helen Zhu, head of China equities at Blackrock, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Monday. “For example, for most of the quarter, from the export front loading impact that we had probably before the Argentina G-20 (summit) when people’s expectations regarding trade became a little bit more optimistic.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a 90-day pause in tariff escalation at the G-20 summit in Argentina late in 2018.

While Beijing’s official GDP figures are seen as one of the crucial indicators of China’s economic health, many outside experts have expressed skepticism about the veracity of the numbers.

Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, wrote in a note that China’s GDP numbers are “not an accurate gauge” of its economic growth. Still, he pointed out, the gap between the actual figures and the official targets usually shapes the government’s policy stance.

“Falling producer prices and new export orders point to a slowdown in China’s growth momentum,” Yeung added. “To celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 2019, President Xi (Jinping) will still likely launch growth-supportive policies.”

The mainland Chinese markets, closely watched as a result of the ongoing U.S.-China trade fight, saw gains on the back of the data release. The Shanghai composite rose more than 0.5 percent to close at about 2,610.51 while the Shenzhen composite gained 0.607 percent to end its trading day at around 1,330.17. The Shenzhen component also advanced 0.592 percent to close at approximately 7,626.24.

Oil prices firmed on Monday after data showed China’s economic slowdown was not as big as some analysts had expected, with supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also offering support. International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.83 per barrel at 0259, up 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. Both oil price benchmarks had dipped into the red earlier in the session on fears that China’s 2018 economic growth figures would be weaker. China’s Septemb

Oil prices firmed on Monday after data showed China’s economic slowdown was not as big as some analysts had expected, with supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also offering support.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.83 per barrel at 0259, up 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $53.92 a barrel, up 12 cents, or 0.2 percent.

Both oil price benchmarks had dipped into the red earlier in the session on fears that China’s 2018 economic growth figures would be weaker.

In an expected cooling, China’s economy grew by 6.6 percent in 2018, its slowest expansion in 28 years and down from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017, official data showed on Monday. China’s September-December 2018 growth was at 6.4 percent, down from 6.5 percent in the previous quarter.

Although the slowdown was in line with expectations and not as sharp as some analysts had expected, the cooling of the world’s number two economy casts a shadow over global growth.

Researchers at Bernstein Energy said the supply cuts led by OPEC “will move the market back into supply deficit” for most of 2019 and that “this should allow oil prices to rise to U.S. $70 per barrel before year-end from current levels of U.S.$60 per barrel.”

In the United States, energy firms cut 21 oil rigs in the week to Jan. 18, taking the total count down to 852, the lowest since May 2018, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a weekly report on Friday.

It was biggest decline since February 2016, as drillers reacted to the 40 percent plunge in U.S. crude prices late last year.

However, U.S. crude oil production still rose by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, to a record 11.9 million bpd.

With the rig count stalling, last year’s growth rate is unlikely to be repeated in 2019, although most analysts expect annual production to average well over 12 million bpd, making the United States the world’s biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

In just a few years, mobile payment has become so ingrained in the lives of Chinese people that they are driving stores in overseas tourist destinations to adopt the technology. Three-fourths of supermarkets and convenience stores in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand now accept Chinese mobile payment, according to a Nielsen survey released Monday. Alipay co-issued the report, which covers 1,244 merchants and 2,806 Chinese residents surveyed in the fall of 2018. “Along with the increasingly person

In just a few years, mobile payment has become so ingrained in the lives of Chinese people that they are driving stores in overseas tourist destinations to adopt the technology.

Three-fourths of supermarkets and convenience stores in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand now accept Chinese mobile payment, according to a Nielsen survey released Monday. Some 71 percent of duty-free stores and luxury stores in those countries also take the payment method.

The two dominant operators are Alipay, which is run by Alibaba-affiliate Ant Financial, and WeChat Pay, which is tied to Tencent’s ubiquitous Chinese messaging app, WeChat. Alipay co-issued the report, which covers 1,244 merchants and 2,806 Chinese residents surveyed in the fall of 2018.

“Along with the increasingly personalized and sophisticated demand of Chinese tourists, improving the global coverage of mobile payments is a long-term project (for merchants),” Andy Zhao, president of Nielsen China, said in a statement.

Tax cuts in China could be at the center of Beijing’s fight against a slowing economy amid an ongoing trade spat with the U.S., experts said. “Fiscal policy will be the front line of defense against mounting macroeconomic headwinds in 2019,” Haibin Zhu, J.P. Morgan’s chief China economist, wrote in a recent note. The challenges in China’s economy are already starting to show. That comes amid signs of softening demand — with recent data pointing to weaker exports and a slowdown in manufacturing a

Tax cuts in China could be at the center of Beijing’s fight against a slowing economy amid an ongoing trade spat with the U.S., experts said.

“Fiscal policy will be the front line of defense against mounting macroeconomic headwinds in 2019,” Haibin Zhu, J.P. Morgan’s chief China economist, wrote in a recent note.

The challenges in China’s economy are already starting to show. On Monday, Beijing reported its slowest GDP growth in decades, with official data showing that the economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018 compared to a year ago — it’s slowest rate of expansion since 1990.

That comes amid signs of softening demand — with recent data pointing to weaker exports and a slowdown in manufacturing activity — as the trade war with the U.S. appears to be taking a toll. Analysts such as Zhu say that Beijing will need to turn to fiscal measures, which typically means boosting government spending and cutting taxes, in order to stimulate the economy.

The impact of tumultuous geopolitical affairs on global growth is one of the biggest concerns for the president of the World Economic Forum (WEF). Speaking to CNBC on the eve of this year’s forum in Davos, Switzerland, WEF President Borge Brende said geopolitical conflicts could damage global growth. “There are many things that concern me but I would say that those geopolitical conflicts can, if not handled the right way, can have a negative impact on growth,” he told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Sun

The impact of tumultuous geopolitical affairs on global growth is one of the biggest concerns for the president of the World Economic Forum (WEF).

Speaking to CNBC on the eve of this year’s forum in Davos, Switzerland, WEF President Borge Brende said geopolitical conflicts could damage global growth.

“There are many things that concern me but I would say that those geopolitical conflicts can, if not handled the right way, can have a negative impact on growth,” he told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Sunday.

“We’re already seeing a slowing of global growth with the negative impact that will have on a lot of people around the world, also when it comes to creating jobs. We’re not out of the woods when it comes to jobs, for example in Europe many countries are still facing 20 percent youth unemployment,” he noted.

That could pull 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 6.6 percent, the lowest since 1990 and down from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017. “What China can really do this year is to prevent deflation, prevent a recession and a hard landing in the economy,” Chen said. On a quarterly basis, growth likely eased to 1.5 percent inOct-Dec from 1.6 percent in the preceding period. China will release its fourth-quarter and 2018 GDP data onMonday (0200 GMT), along with December factory output, retailsale

China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures to avert a sharper slowdown.

Growing signs of weakness in China — which has generated nearly a third of global growth in the past decade — are stoking worries about risks to the world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.

Chinese policymakers have pledged more support for the economy this year to reduce the risk of massive job losses, but they have ruled out a “flood” of stimulus like that which Beijing has unleashed in the past, which quickly juiced growth rates but left a mountain of debt.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect the world’s second-largest economy to have grown 6.4 percent in the October-December quarter from a year earlier, slowing from the previous quarter’s 6.5 percent pace and matching levels last seen in early 2009 during the global financial crisis.

That could pull 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 6.6 percent, the lowest since 1990 and down from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017.

With stimulus measures expected to take some time to kick in, most analysts believe conditions in China are likely to get worse before they get better, and see a further slowdown to 6.3 percent this year. Some analysts believe real growth levels are already much weaker than official data suggest.

Even if China and the United States agree on a trade deal in current talks, which is a tall order, analysts said it would be no panacea for the sputtering Chinese economy unless Beijing can galvanize weak investment and consumer demand.

Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, said investors should not expect the latest round of stimulus to produce similar results as during the 2008-09 global crisis, when Beijing’s huge spending package quickly boosted growth.

“What China can really do this year is to prevent deflation, prevent a recession and a hard landing in the economy,” Chen said.

On a quarterly basis, growth likely eased to 1.5 percent inOct-Dec from 1.6 percent in the preceding period.

China will release its fourth-quarter and 2018 GDP data onMonday (0200 GMT), along with December factory output, retailsales and fixed-asset investment.

Since China’s quarterly GDP readings tend to be unusually steady, most investors prefer to focus on recent trends.

Surprising contractions in December trade data and factory activity gauges in recent weeks have suggested the economy cooled more quickly than expected at the end of 2018, leaving it on shakier footing at the start of the new year.

Sources have told Reuters that Beijing was planning tolower its growth target to 6-6.5 percent this year from around 6.5 percent in 2018.