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A19
business
Thursday, February 11, 2016 www.guardian.co.tt Guardian
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WASHINGTON---Federal Reserve Chair
Janet Yellen cautioned yesterday that global
weakness and falling financial markets
could depress the US economy s growth
and slow the pace of Fed interest rate hikes.
But Yellen made clear that the Fed won t
likely find it necessary to cut rates after
having raised them from record lows in
December. She did concede, though, that
negative rates, which central banks in Japan
and Europe have recently imposed, are a
tool the Fed has at least studied.
In her semi-annual report to Congress,
Yellen offered no major surprises. And she
reiterated the Fed s confidence that the US
economy was on track for stronger growth
and an increase in too-low inflation. At the
same time, she acknowledged the weaker
economic figures that have emerged since
2016 began and made clear the Fed is nerv-
ous about the risks from abroad.
Her concerns about the perils to U.S.
growth contrasted with the Fed s statement
eight weeks ago, when it raised interest rates
for the first time in nearly a decade and
described economic risks as "balanced."
In her testimony to the House Financial
Services Committee, Yellen also:
• Expressed sympathy with committee
members who raised concerns about chron-
ically higher-than-average unemployment
among black Americans. Members of an
activist group, the Fed Up coalition, attended
the hearing wearing T-shirts emblazoned
with the messages "What Recovery?" and
"Let Our Wages Grow." The group has been
urging the Fed to delay further rate hikes
until the job market improves further, espe-
cially for minority groups.
• Sounded her concern about China s
weaker currency and economic outlook,
which are rattling financial markets. She
also warned that rising borrowing rates and
a strong dollar could slow US growth and
hiring, a reflection of the intensified turmoil
that has gripped markets this year. Still, she
said strong hiring at the end of 2015 and
signs of stronger pay growth could offset
those drags.
• Said the Fed still expects to raise rates
gradually but is not on any preset course. The Fed
will likely slow its pace of rate increases "if the econ-
omy were to disappoint," she said.
• Cautioned that the sharp declines in stock prices,
rising rates for riskier borrowers and further strength
in the dollar had translated into financial conditions
that pose risks to growth. "These developments, if
they prove persistent, could weigh on the outlook
for economic activity and the labor market, although
declines in longer-term interest rates and oil prices
could provide some offset," she said.
• Observed that the central bank still thinks energy
price declines and a stronger dollar will fade in coming
months and help raise inflation back up to the Fed s
two per cent target rate. The higher-valued dollar
has held down US inflation by making foreign goods
cheaper for American consumers. Worker pay, though,
has started to show its first significant gains since
the Great Recession ended six-and-a-half years ago.
Yellen s testimony marked the first of two days of
testimony she will give to Congress. Her appearance
marked her first public comments since December,
when the Fed raised rates for the first time in nearly
a decade.
After the Fed began raising rates, economists widely
expected it to continue to boost its benchmark rate
gradually but steadily, most likely starting in March.
But economists have scaled back their expectation
for four modest hikes this year down to perhaps only
two, with the first hike not occurring until June at
the earliest.
Yellen s testimony Wednesday included her most
extensive comments on the situation in China. The
data so far do not suggest that the world s second-
largest economy is undergoing a sharp slowdown,
Yellen said. But she added that declines in that coun-
try s currency have intensified concerns about China s
economic prospects.
"This uncertainty led to increased volatility in
global financial markets and, against the background
of persistent weakness abroad, exacerbated concerns
about the outlook for global growth," Yellen said.
US growth, as measured by the gross domestic
product, slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2015
to a meager annual rate of 0.7 per cent. Yellen attrib-
uted the result to weakness in business stockpiling
and export sales. But she noted that economy is
being fueled by other sectors including home building
and auto sales.
And she said the US job market remains solid,
even after slowing in January to a gain of roughly
150,000 jobs. That addition was still enough to lower
the unemployment rate to 4.9 per cent from five per
cent.
While many Democrats expressed support for a
go-slow approach by the Fed in raising rates, Repub-
licans on the committee argued that the subpar eco-
nomic recovery over the past six-and-a-half years
was evidence of the mismanagement of the economy
by President Barack Obama.
"This recovery is the most dismal, tepid recovery
we have ever had in recorded history," said Rep Robert
Pittenger, R-North Carolina. (AP)
Federal Reserve
Board Chair Janet
Yellen testifies on
Capitol Hill in
Washington
yesterday, before
the House Financial
Services Committee
hearing on
monetary policy
and the state of the
economy. AP PHOTO
Yellen: Persistent economic
weakness could slow rate hikes