Will the Tea Party abandon the Republicans in 2016?

It would seem at this point that a presidential candidate representing the Republican Party establishment in the 2016 election will not be acceptable to the Tea Party movement.

But conventional political wisdom suggests that Tea Party disgruntlement with the GOP nominee wouldn’t matter much. The theory is that those folks inevitably will fall in line and support the Republican ticket.

Or will they?

Chris Cillizza ponders the situation HERE:

The lines are already drawn — albeit somewhat crudely — with Sens. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul on the tea party side and people like Govs. Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Chris Christie as well as Sen. Marco Rubio representing the establishment side.

Now, someone will win that fight — that’s the good thing about campaigns, someone always wins. But, the broader issue is whether the loser — assuming it is the tea party wing — will simply fold itself into the Republican party or go its own way.

Data suggests that the answer is far from resolved. A March Washington Post-ABC News national poll showed that while tea party supporters are more Republican than Democratic, they are far from monolithic for the GOP. Thirty eight percent of tea party supporters identified themselves as Republicans while 14 percent called themselves Democrats. The biggest chunk — 39 percent — said they were independents.

It would seem at this point that a presidential candidate representing the Republican Party establishment in the 2016 election will not be acceptable to the Tea Party movement.

But conventional political wisdom suggests that Tea Party disgruntlement with the GOP nominee wouldn’t matter much. The theory is that those folks inevitably will fall in line and support the Republican ticket.

Or will they?

Chris Cillizza ponders the situation HERE:

The lines are already drawn — albeit somewhat crudely — with Sens. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul on the tea party side and people like Govs. Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Chris Christie as well as Sen. Marco Rubio representing the establishment side.

Now, someone will win that fight — that’s the good thing about campaigns, someone always wins. But, the broader issue is whether the loser — assuming it is the tea party wing — will simply fold itself into the Republican party or go its own way.

Data suggests that the answer is far from resolved. A March Washington Post-ABC News national poll showed that while tea party supporters are more Republican than Democratic, they are far from monolithic for the GOP. Thirty eight percent of tea party supporters identified themselves as Republicans while 14 percent called themselves Democrats. The biggest chunk — 39 percent — said they were independents.