ON BASEBALL

Don't worry, Cubs fans: Playoffs are secure

September 05, 2008|By Phil Rogers

Here's the unfortunate state of affairs for the Cubs' fearful fans: It's going to be a long, long September.

That was the case before Carlos Zambrano dropped down three-quarters and threw that one fastball at 90 m.p.h. the other night, the pitch that signaled pain behind his 7.11 earned-run average in his last six starts.

It was the case before the plan to give Rich Harden some extra rest turned into skipping him for two starts after he, according to manager Lou Piniella, reported "some discomfort" in his arm.

It is the case because things went so well for the Lou Crew during the first five months of the season that there's almost nothing else good that could happen. And there's no way to get around playing the full schedule.

On the morning of Aug. 30, the Cubs had an 11-game playoff cushion. They have lost five games in a row since then but still have a nine-game margin over Philadelphia, which is the runner-up to Milwaukee in the wild-card race.

This isn't a collapse, and it's not going to become a collapse.

The keys to the Cubs' season have been their balance and their depth. They have a strong lineup, a strong rotation and a strong bullpen. They have gone 28-17 in the second half with Zambrano pitching poorly and 25-22 during Alfonso Soriano's two stints on the disabled list.

Yes, these are the Cubs we're talking about. Even first-graders know their history. But when you have scored the most runs in your league while allowing the fewest, and when you have done that over more than five months, you have earned the benefit of the doubt.

Brace yourself, though. It's possible -- maybe even likely -- that Milwaukee will make a run at the NL Central lead. The Brewers are a good team, the second best in the National League, and have an easier schedule from here to the finish line, getting more cracks at second-tier teams like San Diego, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati than do the Cubs.

If the Brewers can win four of six against the Cubs in the two head-to-head series remaining, they may be able to steal the division title. But it should not be of huge consequence if it does happen.

The Cubs are going to the playoffs, with the only reasonable question being whether they are the division champ or wild card. Their fans will judge 2008 by what happens in October, not the regular season, and the Cubs might even be better off as a wild card.

While it would be a potential disadvantage to open the NL Championship Series in Milwaukee instead of Chicago, you probably would rather face the New York Mets than the Arizona Diamondbacks -- with Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson and Dan Haren -- in the first round. It appears the Central champ will get the West winner while the wild card faces the East champ.

Talk of playoff matchups is one thing that will fill the void while the Cubs try to get past this uncomfortable period, when they must finish off a regular season that has gone very well. There also will be magic numbers and the countdown to the inevitable clinchings -- first a playoff spot, then probably a division. But mostly time will be passed with health reports and a vague fear that something's going to go wrong.

At one point Wednesday, there were unfounded reports that Zambrano was finished for the season because of a torn labrum. It turns out the club says the situation is nowhere near as dire. He will miss a start or two with tendinitis and inflammation in his shoulder. Anti-inflammatory medication, not surgery, is the treatment.

This much should be sure: The Cubs are in good hands with Piniella when it comes to killing time. He has been through this before, jockeying teams into the playoffs in Cincinnati, Seattle and Chicago. He will be able to find ways to keep things interesting.

But as the scares with Zambrano and Harden suggest, there's more likely to be bad news than good news. It's the nature of the beast.