Are scouts changing their minds about who is best NHL draft prospect?

According to Bob “Big Dawg” McKenzie, at least one has.
The TSN hockey reporter – a big NHL draft expert – Tweeted today that at least one of the 10 scouts he surveys as to the top NHL prospects has changed his top pick from Seth Jones to Nathan MacKinnon.
“Post-Memorial Cup, one scout who had Jones No. 1 switched to MacKinnon and two others wanted to “think about it” some more,” Tweeted @tsnbobmckenzie.

MacKinnon scored the hat trick and two assists against Jones’ Portland Winterhawks in the Memorial Cup final Sunday night. He also had a hat trick against Portland in an earlier tournament game.

1, 2 and 3 are all interchangeable. Whatever way it plays out 3 teams are getting blue chip talent. Had the privilege of watching MacKinnon and Drouin in Halifax since being drafted in the Q. If some GM could pull a rabbit out if hat, ala Burke, and get both Mac and Drouin on the same team, that would be something.

Go Avs!

We almost had something similar – O’Reilly going to Flames would have given us their pick. We could have had MacKinnon + Ristolainen, Nurse or Zadorov for example.

Travis

We really really really really should have let ROR go to Calgary, Sherman messed that one up.

Jimbotronn

I agree, the Avs AND O’Reilly messed that up at pretty much every stage, but the Avs could have come out on top had they allowed him to go to Calgary and taken their pick. But hindsight is 20/20, and I do think the ownership wanted a chance to prove they weren’t cheap. They aren’t, but they may not be wise either.

Mark T

I for one couldn’t believe the Avs matched the offer. A high 1st rounder (which is clearly what Calgary was destined for at that point) in this draft, plus a 3rd rounder, is a good deal for O’Reilly, especially when you factor in how much the Avs now have to pay him.

My guess is the decision to re-sign him was made well in advance by the Avs’ then-management team. That decision may have been a big factor in the decision to change the management structure to what it is now.

anklebender

The Flames pretty clearly tanked on the season. With ROR in the picture that’s probably not such a high pick. Even with this being an excellent draft class, is a mid first-rounder gonna turn out to be better than ROR? Eh…..ROR is a damn fine two-way center.

Go Avs!

Not surprised. Most already had MacKinnon as #1 but changed their rankings after World Juniors when MacKinnon was given 4th line minutes and Jones had a good tournament.

cmrn631

exactly people are flip flopping opinions on these players based off a couple of games. I’m cool with either

Steve Canon

If the Avs were to draft MacKinnon, Stastny would be as good as gone, traded for a good defenseman. The roster is definitely going to look different come training camp.

sortaboldprediction

If the Avs draft MacKinnon, I think both Stastny and O’Reilly are gone. The Avs need a big defenseman and a winger. Those two can partially solve that problem (through trade) although they will need to further improve with draft picks and free agency.

My prediction is that this is the plan. Think of Stastny plus draft picks for Yandle/Bogosian/Kulikov (or someone else) and O’Reilly plus picks for Eberle. Both Phoenix and Edmonton are in need of centers. I could also see the Avs work with Calgary in the O’Reilly trade. Right now both proposals are hopelessly short of what it would take, but it’s where you start and then you have to get a bit inventive.

But a Duchene/MacKinnon center duo might just be a core that can honestly contend for a Cup.

2Bold

Trading Stastny for a D-Man might be a good option. But to think that Edmonton will trade Eberle is just wishful thinking. Those discussions will not take place. Plus, O’Reilly cannot be touched for another year, so that option is also out.

2Bold

Trading Stastny for a D-Man might be a good option. But to think that Edmonton will trade Eberle is just wishful thinking. Those discussions will not take place. Plus, O’Reilly cannot be touched for another year, so that option is also out.

sortaboldprediction

Where did I say we have to trade O’Reilly immediately? Of course he cannot be traded until late February. But, if we draft MacKinnon, he’ll be more useful as a trading chip rather than a 3rd line forward.

Also, if you go to the HFBoards, Edmonton fans seem to acknowledge that the best piece they have to get the center they want is Eberle. They view him as a guy that can excel with talent but won’t naturally make those around him great. I don’t know if the comparison is apt, but I think of Hejduk. He was a 50 goal scorer with Forsberg. But pair him with average talent, I don’t think they’d suddenly become elite because he was on their wing. Eberle, for all his stick handling prowess, may be similar.

Maybe Eberle is wishful thinking, but I don’t think he’s nearly as untouchable as you believe.

2Bold

So you’re thinking is the Avs will select Mackinnon and THEN try and trade Stastny and/or O’Reilly? Sorry dude, but I’m not following your logic here. Dutchy isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. O’Reilly isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Which now leaves Stastny only, and I’m fine with trading him for the right d-man.

As far as Eberle is concerned, the fans in Edmonton can have their opinions about trading Eberle for a center, but let me ask you this: do you honestly believe that the Edmonton Oilers would just extend Eberle’s contract to 6 million a year and now start to question whether or not he should be traded for a center? Hall and Eberle are staying in Edmonton for years to come. The Oil ain’t stupid to let him go. Now I can see the Oilers wanting to trade him for Dutchy, but do you think the Avs would go for that?

sortaboldprediction

The Avs should trade Stastny pre-draft if they can. That would leave them with Duchene, MacKinnon, O’Reilly as the centers. While it’s great to have that much talent down the middle, resigning O’Reilly might prove too expensive for a third line center. Trading him for a winger next March or in the off-season next year might be a good idea. If not Eberle, there likely will still be some talent available for that move.

Now, admittedly Oiler fans were mostly interested in moving Eberle for Duchene. What I don’t know is how O’Reilly is perceived around the league. Clearly Calgary think he is pretty darn good. It’s a bit of a pipe dream to think that the Oilers would trade Eberle for O’Reilly and some pieces, but most of this speculation is like that anyways.

But the general sentiment of moving Stastny and O’Reilly for a defenseman and a winger and drafting MacKinnon was what I’m mostly expressing.

Bill

Another delusional Avs fan thinking Stastny would bring any kind of decent return. Stastny is a 3rd line center on a decent team, but because he’s on the Avs (a terrible team) he’s a 1st/2nd line guy.

Stastny was a 70-80 point guy and just had a good Worlds. He absolutely can bring a good return, if Avs decide to move him.

Paul Gaustad was traded for a 1st round pick. I think a Stastny is worth a bit more than 3rd rounder and marginal prospect. ;)

Mark T

Stastny is a solid #2 center on a good team based on his points, skill level and overall performance. I think he could bring in a solid player, but would likely have to be paired with our 2nd rounder and probably Wilson to bring in a good defenseman in return.

yayayay

This really is a great situation for the Avs. Even if they decide they are going to draft Seth Jones, the possibility they will pick MacKinnon is legitimate. Florida needs an offensive player like NM more than SJ. The Avs could leverage that to possibly get something from Florida to swap picks. If Florida wants NM as much as I think they do right now, the thought of the Avs taking him has to terrify them. At the very least, this all could be very interesting come the end of June.

Joshed

I believe mackinnon was ranked ahead of jones earlier in the year, so it’s not like this kid is coming out of nowhere. In an ideal world, you trade stastny and maybe Elliot for a solid defenseman like bogosian and then draft mackinnon, obviously easier said than done. Either way this next month should be really entertaining!

tonyt

We win either way we go. A defensemen would be nice of course but i wanna see them draft drouin or mackinnon. Drouin has so much talent and unreal vision, he’s like a smaller forsberg almost. And mackinnon seems to be one of the players that gets better when the game gets bigger. His shot looks great and obviously he plays to win and with Roy as coach that could be a good fit.

bromando

The energy from Mackinnon reminds me of Landeskog’s rookie year (I don’t think Landeskog lost it, he just had a slump for some of last year). He just wants to win and score goals more than other players. Seth Jones on the other hand is very calm and held back and that’s why he isn’t very physical even with his frame. You have to think that an energy guy like Roy will be pushing for Mackinnon because he plays with intensity, and he’s really really good as his two hat tricks attest to.

Mackinnon even makes empty netters look really good. This isn’t the first empty netter that he’s beaten two guys with stickhandling and a long shot to get.

Darren Dreger

Here is what needs to happen. The Av’s Draft MacKinnon and look for other ways to shore up the d. With EJ, Wilson, Barrie, Hejda and Siemens the top 5 is ok/decent. They trade Stastny for another solid d-man and then next Feburary unload O’rielly for another d-man (or goalie) if still needed. Duchene and MacKinnon will be dominant for the next 10-15 years as 1-2 punch at center. Jones may be a great d-man, but Roy and Sakic will not pass up on MacKinnon, they are too wise to let him go.

cmrn631

It’s a win win situation. Lets no forget people, although impressive, the memorial cup was only a handful of games, pro-scouts have been following these players for a year+ and have been very meticulous in their rankings. At his point I will be happy with either but if we choose to draft MacKinnon I hope that means their are some trades or FA signings in the works to upgrade our D.

Rodrigue Eric

Not always an easy task to pick first but I hope they will pick Seth Jones. This guy has a lot more upsides than Erik Johnson did when he got drafted by the Blues. He can easily becomes the next Suter, Pronger or Linstrom type of D-man. I know Nate MacKinnon as a forward is more flashy offense-wise but a D-man like Jones doesn’t come by very often.

Go Avs!

How Lightning director of amateur scouting described him:

“He’s a very good player and you see the comparisons to Nicklas Lidstrom or Chris Pronger, but I don’t think those are even close. Pronger is much more vicious and much harder to play against than Seth, and Lidstrom’s hockey sense was at a level that not too many, or maybe even none, have ever played at.”

He does praise him in full text, this is just the comparison bit.

Avs Fan

Mackinnon and Drouin playing on the same team might be something to look at as well seeing as they both make each other better. I’m still thinking Seth Jones would be the better pick for the Avs in the long run. But would be happy with Mackinnon.

pascalp

I still hope they will draft Seth Jones but he is a long term solution where Mc Kinnon could have more of an immediate impact, secret is what the Avalanche are thinking and here is my guess :
Mac Kinnon : Rick Pracey loves to draft small, skilled Centermen ; Roy knows him having see him play in the QJMHL, he would be NHL ready long before Jones. It’s hard to pass on a future All Star Center.
Seth Jones : The Avs are in need of big mobile D-Men that can play the puck and those ones do not grow up on trees. Roy already says he wants a bigger offense and a bigger team in general. The Avs have their 1/2 punch at Center with Duchene and O’Reilly.

FoppasGhost

Its still a no brainer. The Avs desperately need defense. Top two defensemen are nearly impossible to obtain through free agency. By nature d-men don’t stat the way forwards do. For d if a guy can control the flow and eat minutes he is invaluable. According to Foote Eric Johnson is a 3 or 4. Jones is a one. The Avs have 3 centers and Paranteau and Landeskog–good forward blocks. Jones makes the entire team better. MacKinnon merely means the Avs have to trade a center for an average defenseman.

Go Avs!

In 2006 draft, a lot of people thought Erik Johnson is a number 1 defenseman.
In 2013 draft, a lot of people think Seth Jones is a number 1 defenseman, even if he didnt play like one..

It’s big, big risk to take.

Smell the Glove

Every drafted player is a risk, it goes without saying.

Citing one player who doesn’t meet #1 overall draft pick expectations is great for arguments over beers in a bar but it really is just anecdotal and has no bearing on anything. Erik Johson’s career, past present or future accomplishments, do not affect or predict anything with regards to Seth Jones.

Go Avs!

No, but it shows how difficult to predict anything for defenseman. Look at the draft over the years and its a crap shoot for both goalies and defenseman… On top of all that MacKinnon showed more than Jones, a lot more. Pracey said #1 is open and we will go BPA, which means MacKinnon. Foote says we need a defenseman, which means Jones.

I havent been this excited or concerned about our draft for a long time. We will either draft a star or the one team that didnt. Deep drafts are when teams win big or lose big.

Smell the Glove

You touched on it. I read a lot of these posts that sound like people are afraid of picking Jones.

If MacKinnon isn’t the next Kane, or whoever he’s being compared to today, at least he’ll score some goals. If Jones isn’t the next Lidstrom he’s a bust.

Seems to me (and I admit I know nothing about any of these kids) that Jones can still be the best player available, but from a fan’s perspective he carries a presumed greater risk of making your team the butt of jokes.

I’m just sitting here trying to figure out what’s worse than having the worst defensive team in the league at the bottom of the standings?

bromando

The thing is, if you draft Jones, then the Avs defense still sucks. He’s most likely not going to come in as a 1st pairing for a couple of years. This means you have two young defensemen in him and Barrie with Elliott also contending for time on the lower lines. Then you have Siemens…our defense won’t get better with a bunch of rookies, not anytime soon anyways. We need a strong veteran to come in through trade or if we’re super lucky, a FA.

Smell the Glove

No doubt the defense looks exactly the same regardless of Jones being drafted, at least it does this year. I think that position needs to be addressed outside of the draft even if Jones is the pick.

Ramon

The Avs desperately need defense, yeah, but you do not solve this problem drafting Jones!

slappywhite

i was all Jones until i started thinking of it this way. We need a Dman who will make an immediate impact, from what i have been reading, Jones wont be ready right away. So wouldnt it make more sense to draft a center and send one of our centers packing for an NHL ready/established Dman.

Smell the Glove

To me it makes sense to do that anyway.

http://www.facebook.com/toddx7 Todd Anderson

The Avs need to stick with Jones as their top pick because of all the defensive issues. MacKinnon could become a possibility if the Avs have a new goaltender line up already, and are looking to resolve the defensive issues that way.

Ramon

Dream on! Jones will 100 % not be the answer to all defensive issues. This is the NHL man and a kid like Jones will not change anything.

We should draft McKinnon, HE WILL BE a superstar. That is for sure!

Bill

Doesn’t matter who the Avs draft. They’ll ruin whichever player they choose. This team has no idea how to develop talent. The only way they’ve ever “built” a winner was to buy it.

Bill

Doesn’t matter who the Avs draft. They’ll ruin whichever player they choose. This team has no idea how to develop talent. The only way they’ve ever “built” a winner was to buy it.

Steven Mangold

It’s an entirely new group of people, so you can’t even know if they can develop talent. Plus, Duchene and O’Reilly turned out pretty damn good IMO

Colorado Gary

To Pracey’s credit, from minute one after the Avs won the lottery, he stated (paraphrased) that there would be more than one good player available and they would go through a process to decide which one they will choose. It would have been easy for him to tip his hand and say or imply that the Avs would take Jones, especially with all the hype over the feel-good, local-connection story.

So, as posted earlier, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Avs take MacKinnon and trade for a decent DMan. Besides, I think even with the current crop (sans Zanon maybe), the results could be a lot better just by changing the defensive scheme.

One thing I don’t think we (we = the Avs :-) have – yet – is a Sakic-type player who can score a HUGE goal when needed. No matter what the other team did, he found a way to net the big one. I’m not saying MacKinnon is the next Sakic (sacrilege) but maybe he could be that guy…

Pollardinio

I’m with you on this. MacKinnon has a higher ceiling, for sure. Our PP and our goal scoring were both among the worst in the league last year. That counts as Defence too!

Pollardino

My bet is that the Avs will take a good look at who they could sign in Free Agency first. Not much happening, but as fill-ins until we either trade for/develop, there is: Gonchar, Regehr, Whitney, Scuderi, Douglas Murry, Andrew Ferrence if he isn’t re-signed. All these guys are old, but you have to reckon they’ll play better in the next few years than Jones will in the NHL. That leaves the developmental curve for taking Jones #1 overall a bit more realistic. He could ease his way in under proven veterans in the like of the above mentioned FAs and Hejda, E.J., Wilson. A solid Veteran who has been winning lately would help out a lot, anyways.

Or, if we see a trade before the draft involving someone for a top 2 D-man – most likely, Stastny/Jones/possibly draft picks and prospects, count on MacKinnon or Drouin being picked 1st. Heck, the Avs could draft MacKinnon or Drouin and wait until the trade deadline to trade O’Reilly if they wanted to, but we’ll see how Factor plays. “Supposedly” he’s in the Avs future plans, but when things get shuffled and new Executive VPs are promoted/announced, the wind can change quickly (Even Super Joe changed his tune once Roy was interested).

That is the real question, though: “Who could we build around more?”

Given E.J. already on the team and what we traded for him (‘Doh!), logically it would make more sense to draft MacKinnon. He has a much, much higher ceiling.

I guess I’ll be happy with any of the top three, it’s just that I get nervous about touted #1 Defenseman prospects.

Drafted #1 Overall since 1990:

Roman Hamrlik – 1992 —–That was a good call!

Ed Jovinovski – 1994 —–Solid player, good career, lost the Cup to us in 1996. Was he worth #1 Overall?

Bryan Berard – 1995 —–Good, but not worth the #1 pick.

Chris Phillips – 1996 —–Solid, Stay at home D-man still playing for Ottawa. You’d have to say it was worth the pick, but no All Star games, No Cups.

Erik Johnson – 2006 —–Well, we all know the story. Fortunately, he has the rest of the Avs contract to carve his future.

I’ll take into consideration that in the past 30 years, only 5 Defensemen have ever been drafted, meaning that E.J. and Seth Jones being rated so high is quite a rare talent for a scout’s assessment.

….but it is worth the risk?

The Good Doctor

Before people write off Jones so briskly, they should really watch the highlight reel link below. Remember that Jones is playing against players like Yakupov and Filip Forsberg; no slouches. Some of the passing should look appetizing. I would like to see a larger mean streak but I never watched Lidstrom really get mean; pretty sure that was rare.I actually like Dater’s take with Jones as a larger Scott Neidermayer. See for yourselves.

If we take McKinnon, well…..then let the trading season begin. I think ROR gets the season to prove himself. Kicking a5s and taking names will go a long way with the new coaching staff. Anyone truly weak will be cast out quickly. Everyone else probably gets one year to prove themselves worthy. Beyond that, there shall be a cleansin’. Under Roy you will have to be tough and play as hard as you ever did.

Who are the Dman trade prospects? I’ve been too lazy to really look around.

1) Trade the first overall pick to whichever team makes the best offer from among the top 10 teams in the draft. The goal would be to get at least their first rounder as well as a good roster player/prospect*. The player received in this deal might change the actions in the next steps. Whoever is drafted, keep them in junior for another year.

2) Use the pick received in that trade to pick the best defenseman available (aim for Ristolainen/Zarorov/Nurse). Since drafting d-men is a bit of a crap shoot, any one of them has a chance of being better than Jones.

3) Trade Paul Stastny for the best defenseman you can get for him*. If a d-man was already received in step 1, trade him for the best player(s)/prospect(s)/draft pick(s) you can get for him. He’s not in our long-term plans, and the best time to trade him is now before the draft.

4) Sign Tyler Bozak to compete with O’Reilly for the #2 center position. Bozak would make a very good 3rd line center and he might end up outplaying O’Reilly. Plus there’s the DU connection. If he’s not available, the best under-30 free agent center should be signed.

5) Sign Gonchar, Streit, Hainsey, Scuderi, Murray or a similar veteran free agent defenseman to a short-term deal. The idea would be this player would fill in our d-core until whomever we signed with our 1st round pick is ready for the NHL.

6) Sign Matt Duchene to a long-term contract extension

*Included in one of these deals would be at least one of our current defensmen (likely from among Wilson, O’Brien, Hunwick, or Elliott)

We’d end up with at least 2 new solid defensemen, plus another player, and a very good prospect defenseman in junior.

Then in the following seasons, Seimens and our 2013 1st rounder would be ready to take over for the FA Veteran and Hejda.

That sounds pretty good, eh?

Avs Fan

I just watched the Patrick Roy press conference and its hard not to get excited. I don’t understand however why no one on the press asked the critical question. Will the Kroenkes stick a crowbar in their wallet and fund a team that isn’t in the bottom of the NHL in payroll? There is a reason the fans think the Kroenkes are the death of the AVs – they are cheap. Dater – please ask the question or at least let us know if this impression is accurate.

Mark T

Roy alluded to that. He made a comment along the lines of “we may need to hold Josh back from spending too much if it’s a player we don’t need”

Also, I think the argument of the Krienkes being cheap is bunk based on the fact that they signed Parenteau and Jones to 4 mil per year each. If they were cheap, neither player would have been signed. I think rather than cheapness it’s been more an issue of not wanted to waste millions of dollars when the team isn’t ready to compete for the playoffs. Remember when the signed Ryan Smith? They were certainly spending then, and that didn’t work out too well for us. You can’t just throw money at free agents and expect your team to suddenly be a cup contender. Example A: Minnesota. Example B: New York Rangers.

Terry Frei graduated from Wheat Ridge High School in the Denver area and has degrees in history and journalism from the University of Colorado-Boulder. He worked for the Rocky Mountain News while attending CU and joined the Post staff after graduation. He has also worked at the Oregonian in Portland, Ore., and The Sporting News. His seventh book, March 1939: Before the Madness, was issued in February 2014.

Chambers covers college and professional hockey for The Denver Post. He has written for the Post since 1994, after dumping his first 9-to-5 office job a couple years out of college. He primarily follows the University of Denver hockey team and helps cover the Avalanche.