REGION: Sierra snow levels 15 percent below normal

For those counting on this winter being the one that breaks
California's drought, the season isn't off to a particularly good
start.

Snow surveyors for the California Department of Water Resources
found Wednesday the amount of water frozen in the Sierra Nevada
snowpack stands at 15 percent below normal for this time of the
year.

That's better than last year at this time, when the snapshot of
snow levels came in at 24 percent below normal, but not much
better.

And it follows three straight drier-than-normal years that have
milked the state's major reservoirs to the point they are 29
percent full.

"It just reminds us that we need to be ever vigilant in our
conservation efforts," said Maureen Stapleton, general manager for
the San Diego County Water Authority. "We need to change the way we
use water and treat it as the precious resource that it is."

Sue Sims, chief deputy director for the Department of Water
Resources, said in a statement that the first of five scheduled
precipitation measurements this season is a reminder that
Californians should prepare for a possible fourth dry year.

"Despite some recent storms, today's snow survey shows that
we're still playing catch-up when it comes to our statewide water
supplies," Sims said.

On the other hand, state and local officials said measurements
taken later in the season, particularly in April, will be more
meaningful in determining whether residents of Riverside and San
Diego counties will face watering restrictions again next
summer.

"January and February are usually the biggest months for
snowfall," department spokesman Don Strickland said in a telephone
interview. "It's pretty early in the year right now, so quite
honestly these figures really don't mean a whole lot."

Matt Stone, general manager for the Rancho California Water
District in Temecula, agreed it is too early to gauge what kind of
winter is coming.

"This first snowpack reading is a little like getting the first
absentee ballot count before the polls have closed," Stone said by
e-mail. "We at least know more than we did before the count, but
there is still a lot more votes coming in before the polls close.
... We've got to see what we get in Sierra snowpack over the next
75 to 90 days."

Within that time, Californians will find out whether the El Nino
condition brewing in the Pacific Ocean will turn the relatively dry
start to the season into a wet winter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration earlier
issued a forecast for a wetter-than-normal season for California
because of the weather phenomenon that is marked by a significant
warm-up of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific. Named for the
Spanish reference to the Christ child because it peaks around
Christmas, the condition tends to funnel a large number of wet
storms through California.

But the condition is weaker than past El Ninos that drenched
Southern California, such as those in 1997 to 98 and 1992 to
93.

"You just never know what Mother Nature is going to do,"
Strickland said. "In some years, there is so much snowfall that it
covers the houses up there in the Sierra. If we were to have a year
like that, the outlook for the summer would be pretty good."

Even with that, however, a lot of rain and snow would soak into
the parched ground before beginning to refill reservoirs,
Strickland said.

And with court-ordered restrictions on pumping from the
Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, even a year that leaves reservoirs
brimming with water won't necessarily result in huge amounts
gushing toward Southern California.

"Even an extremely wet year will only result in average water
supplies for the State Water Project," Stapleton said.

Indeed, said Peter Odencrans, a spokesman for Eastern Municipal
Water District in Riverside County, "the big question for the
agencies south of the delta will be: Will we be able to access that
supply when it begins to melt and flows into the delta?"