And then there were 42. The Oilers roster is pretty much set (I’d guess 20 of 23 names are 100 percent roster locks) but there are going to be some interesting developments over the next two weeks. Nice to see names like Jujhar Khaira, Caleb Jones and Kailer Yamamoto still here, shocking that Patrick Russell remains. These final cuts can be important, as recalls often go in reverse order.

CURRENT TC ROSTER (42)

The 12 starters appear set among forwards (first four names on each line) with Anton Slepyshev probably there depending on injury.

Who is the 14th forward? Iiro Pakarinen is always a good guess.

Kailer Yamamoto’s presence on this roster tells me he is going to get a full shot at making it. I’m not going to bet against him. Seriously. More in a minute.

You can make a case for the 7D being set, three on each line and Yohann Auvitu. I’ll also mention the possibility of keeping 8D to start the season, something the organization does sometimes in October.

The goalie numbers are insane this fall.

YAMAMOTO

All summer long, I’ve been mentioning the possibility of Kailer Yamamoto making the Edmonton Oilers this fall. Many have called me on it, saying it makes no sense to have such a small forward on the club. Here’s what I wrote August 11:

Lowetide blog:The signing of Kailer Yamamoto last night puts an interesting spin on the RW depth chart this fall. I’ve mentioned more than a few times the young man has the kind of elite skill set these gifted centers need alongside them. Chemistry is a funny thing, and Kailer Yamamoto strikes me as the kind of guy who is going to push for every inch of daylight made available.

More Lowetide blog:This is going to be fascinating. Many (most) think keeping Yamamoto for nine games (or more) is full crazy, while others are curious and want to see if he can make an impact. For me, there’s zero doubt in my mind Yamamoto can think, skate and create, he has more offensive potential than any other RW coming to camp. The only question is readiness. We wait.

Nothing has been decided, but we’re now in the territory where each man is judged by performance. This is a cerebral player who is a demon on the forecheck, can stickhandle in a phone booth and think the game at a very high level. Fascinating story.

There have been preliminary discussions between the Oilers and Maroons agent Allain Roy about an extension. still early but sounds like….

Peter Chiarelli’s aggressiveness is as consistent as sunrise. I can’t see the club keeping Nuge as it is, signing Patrick Maroon would make it fait accompli. Here’s a recent look at the possible 2018-19 roster:

This model has Nuge being dealt (I didn’t replace him on this roster, assuming he was dealt for picks or a fantabulous prospect, like a Strome).

It still doesn’t work, but is within $1.5M of working and I have six money estimates so maybe PC can squeeze some dollars out.

Maroon’s ask will be central to any signing success, his agent won’t let him sign a low deal (nor should he) and with another 25+ goal season Maroon should be able to get quite the deal on the open market.

The desire to make a deal mentioned by Ryan Rishaug (on both sides) bodes well, suspect there is a meeting place somewhere.

I like Maroon, he has chem with McDavid and there is some anecdotal evidence he helps 97’s performance. That said, pay up the middle, find your bargains on the wings. Will Maroon sign for bargain dollars? Why would Maroon sign for bargain dollars?

The cap has to go up. Light a candle.

TONIGHT

It’s a good bet we’ll see Jesse Puljujarvi tonight, perhaps Kailer Yamamoto too. One or both of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Swedish pairing, Cam Talbot, perhaps names like Edward Pasquale, Grayson Downing, Mark Fayne, Caleb Jones. I’ll have a GDT up at 5pm local unless something breaks before.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Friday! Lots of brilliant sports ahead over the next 60 hours, we’ll preview this morning on TSN1260 beginning at 10. Scheduled to appear:

Dave Dawson, Onside CFL Fantasy. CFL weekend and who you should target.

Khaira isn’t fighting for a roster spot any more, in my opinion, he is a lock and is now fighting for a lineup spot on October 4 and has the inside line on such spot.

He has been materially effective in every scrimmage (from accounts) and game he played. He looks even faster but, more importantly, is making plays with the puck and making the right plays – total confidence.

If Slepy is ready to go, he will fight with Khaira for the opening night 4LW spot and Pakarinan has also had success early in camp but that is Khaira’s spot right now.

With respect to Maroon, very interesting – seems a little early to me and maybe not the best idea by our management considering Maroon is coming off a career year and I don’t see his value being any higher at any point – I expect a nice year for him but not quite approaching 30 goals and among the lead leaders in ES goals.

If he’s willing to sign for 3-4 years at an AAV at $3.5M or below then go for it – if not, I’m not so sure.

I don’t think he’s willing to sign such a contract give he was in the AHL a few years ago and this is his one chance for a medium term/medium money contract. I know he likes it here but money talks and we don’t really have it to spend.

OriginalPouzar:
Khaira isn’t fighting for a roster spot any more, in my opinion, he is a lock and is now fighting for a lineup spot on October 4 and has the inside line on such spot.

He has been materially effective in every scrimmage (from accounts) and game he played. He looks even faster but, more importantly, is making plays with the puck and making the right plays – total confidence.

If Slepy is ready to go, he will fight with Khaira for the opening night 4LW spot and Pakarinan has also had success early in camp but that is Khaira’s spot right now.

Very important to remember that with each passing game the quality of competition increases. Our eye can deceive in week one TC.

OriginalPouzar:
With respect to Maroon, very interesting – seems a little early to me and maybe not the best idea by our management considering Maroon is coming off a career year and I don’t see his value being any higher at any point – I expect a nice year for him but not quite approaching 30 goals and among the lead leaders in ES goals.

If he’s willing to sign for 3-4 years at an AAV at $3.5M or below then go for it – if not, I’m not so sure.

I don’t think he’s willing to sign such a contract give he was in the AHL a few years ago and this is his one chance for a medium term/medium money contract. I know he likes it here but money talks and we don’t really have it to spend.

I don’t want Maroon on a four-year deal, even three years is a long time.

Hi LT
2018/19 center position doesn’t look as strong as this years addition. I think it its to early to start all of this without finding out what the Nuge can do playing 3rd center and possible some time on the wing. I have to admit. i may lean towards keeping Nuge if he has a strong season versuses trading him. Maroon is a nice piece of the puzzle, but its easier to find a big complimentary winger for Connor than a very good center. JMHO

Regarding Maroon, unless PC has gone batshit crazy (which I don’t believe he has), if a contract is to be entertained at this time both sides have to benefit.

Oilers – Need to grab 19 under market value. $3m max.

Maroon – Likely receives 3-4 years as a FA, needs extra to make it worth while

Meeting place – is it $12m-$15m over 5 years? I would be happy with that. I do have confidence in PC, he has done a remarkable job IMO in turning this organization into a contender. 97 helped, but PC did the rest. While my confidence is there, the peculiar signing of Russell makes me a tad concerned that Maroon is signed to 3x$4.5m.

Letestu is fantastic in his role, but his role is 4C and special teams. He can’t play too many minutes as he gets ineffective and I don’t think 3C minutes is a good idea. He is not as effective as ES to start with.

Lowetide: I don’t want Maroon on a four-year deal, even three years is a long time.

If the AAV is around $3m I like it. He should have 2-3 years of productive hockey in him for sure, if the cost of the AAV reduced is to have a $3m bad contract for a year or two I’m comfortable with that risk.

Lowetide: I don’t want Maroon on a four-year deal, even three years is a long time.

No chance Maroon is signing for less than 3 years. He’d be crazy to. 29 at the end of this season, he’s going to want some term. I agree 4 years is too much but honestly I don’t know how you get it done without springing for 4. Having said that, before Mcdavid, Maroon didn’t have a hell of a lot going for him so maybe he doesn’t have the leverage. It’ll be an interesting negotiation.

I’d also say that I’m not as sold on Strome returning as you are. If Cagguila has a good year and JP shows some growth I think Strome is gonzo unless he lights it up. Especially if Yamamoto has a big year.

After that, you’ve got Fayne off the books, and you move Russell or Sekera because Nurse or Benning is ready.

Lots has to go right to keep Nuge but I honestly think they’ll try to make it happen. Coach likes him and I have to take the GM at his word that he likes him too. Nuge needs to have a good year playing that third line.

The 2018 roster makes a lot of sense. However, even Mark Letestu has said he struggles with 3C minutes – I think he will be gone. Maroon was a journeyman pro until zoomed by McD – he might, just, possibly, ya never know, sign for $1m less. Still difficult to squeeze Nuge in (Pouliot’s buy out and the Leon overpay are the nails in the coffin – shame).

If they play Yamo he risks being smashed to a pulp. Love the guy. Hope we don’t see him for a year.

OriginalPouzar:
If Nuge is gone for next year, don’t you “have” to put Strome as 3C?

Letestu is fantastic in his role, but his role is 4C and special teams. He can’t play too many minutes as he gets ineffective and I don’t think 3C minutes is a good idea.He is not as effective as ES to start with.

Not to mention, he may not be back next year at all…..

Letestu is not a good fit at 3C, agreed, he has to be in the 4C/special teams role. Strome I don’t think is a good 3C fit either. He isn’t exactly a defensive stalwart. I’d much rather keep RNH and let Strome walk along with Maroon if he can’t be signed to reasonable money.

Snowman: No chance Maroon is signing for less than 3 years. He’d be crazy to. 29 at the end of this season, he’s going to want some term. I agree 4 years is too much but honestly I don’t know how you get it done without springing for 4. Having said that, before Mcdavid, Maroon didn’t have a hell of a lot going for him so maybe he doesn’t have the leverage. It’ll be an interesting negotiation.

I’d also say that I’m not as sold on Strome returning as you are. If Cagguila has a good year and JP shows some growth I think Strome is gonzo unless he lights it up. Especially if Yamamoto has a big year.

After that, you’ve got Fayne off the books, and you move Russell or Sekera because Nurse or Benning is ready.

Lots has to go right to keep Nuge but I honestly think they’ll try to make it happen. Coach likes him and I have to take the GM at his word that he likes him too. Nuge needs to have a good year playing that third line.

If only the NMC for Sekera and Russell ended a year earlier. Next season is the problem as both players can’t be traded without asking them to waive, whereas I see 2019-20 as the year when the cap becomes a bit less of an issue with the cap hopefully increasing, and a few key NMC’s going into modified NMC’s.

Maybe it’s just me but I think Maroon is the easiest contract Chia has had to negotiate outside of ELC. He is a product of Conor McDavid. The rest of the league knows he is a product of Conor McDavid. 3 years 3 mil per is what I would offer.

As far as Khaira I might be in the minority but I never thought he was fighting for a roster spot.

Agree it’s too early to extend Maroon, but in regards to Big Rig vs. Nuge, the question may be who’s skillset would be more difficult to replace?

RNH seems to be topping out as 3C whereas Maroon could be trending up as a legitimate power forward, and big men with hands that think the game well are gold Jerry, gold!

For this reason, I think Lucic’s season will play a factor in this. If he has a subpar season, then it’s possible that Chiarelli likes Maroon & Nuge over Lucic & Nuge. And that’s when these NMCs rear their ugly head.

Greetings from Helsinki.
I’ve been following the Yamamoto TC with interest and was unsure if he could do well this early against grown men. But last night I watched Eeli Tolvanen look exceptional in a man’s league. I though the two were close comparables at the draft last year. If Tolvanen can produce against men, I think Yamamoto could too playing beside Nuge, McDavid or Draisaitl. Go Oilers!

Bag of Pucks:
Agree it’s too early to extend Maroon, but in regards to Big Rig vs. Nuge, the question may be who’s skillset would be more difficult to replace?

RNH seems to be topping out as 3C whereas Maroon could be trending up as a legitimate power forward, and big men with hands that think the game well are gold Jerry, gold!

For this reason, I think Lucic’s season will play a factor in this. If he has a subpar season, then it’s possible that Chiarelli likes Maroon & Nuge over Lucic & Nuge. And that’s when these NMCs rear their ugly head.

I don’t agree that Nuge is “topping out as a 3C” – except for last year (where he was something like 62nd in center scoring” his offensive numbers are top 6 production – plus the 2-way play he brings.

I think that generally people overestimate the number of players at each position that actually provide top line or top 6 offence. Decent offensive players get labelled as “3rd line players” when they always provide top 6 production.

I still say Sekera is as likely to be dealt as Nuge. That said, if we see anything north of $5m for Maroon, it may be both going.

I’ve mentioned before that the first half of this season is a forced trial run of the team without Sekera. If they are successful, I don’t know why Chiarelli wouldn’t trade him. With Jones showing well, Nurse on the verge of pushing for a top-4 spot, and the team seemingly in love with Russell, Sekera would be much more replaceable than Nuge.

This is doubly true if Nuge and Jussi make music together. Pittsburgh has shown us that if you can roll three dangerous lines, having a big-name defensive end is not necessary. You just need smart, responsible dmen who can skate well and make a pass.

I’m not saying Sekera isn’t valuable – he’s an exceptional defenseman, and would rather he stay. But from an organizational point of view, there are players both on the roster and in the system that can and/or will replace Sekera with little or no drop-off in performance. The same can not be said for Nuge. The recency bias around him is strong, but we need to remember he is a gifted, gifted player coming off a down year. I hope like hell that Chia explores every other avenue first…

Lowetide: frjohnk: How about a 5 year deal?
Throw in a sweetener like a NMC.

Would that help?

I’ll get the rosary.

I was kinda joking about the NMC. But kinda not.

He knows ( hell, everybody knows) that the Oilers are pushed up to the cap starting next year. So he will probably ask for term and for stability/peace of mind a NMC instead of a big AAV to stay in E-town.

I like the Oilers are talking to Maroon, they have to cover their bases if Drake, Sleppy, JP are not exactly the complimentary players McDavid and Draisaitl will need moving forward. Just hope the Oilers do not overpay to keep him.

The verbal that Sekera could be the player to move for cap room just boggles my mind.

Have we forgotten that Sekera is a huge part of this team and his injury is creating a massive hole in our defence and, at this point, we aren’t sure if we have the personnel to tread through it?

Except for the fact that “Russell is an Alberta boy”, I can’t see any logical reason why we’d look to trade Sekera, at a million more than Russell, over Russell for cap relief given they both have NMCs.

Sure, Sekera has “more value” but, given it will be another cap relief move, that doesn’t really mean much – the value coming back will be the cap relief itself.

Depending on when he’d be traded, Edmonton might not just get more for him plus a chunk back into the cap, but him moving out due to being older etc. and the young Lefties moving up (Jones, Paigin, Klefbom, Nurse, Lagesson, etc.) would potentially be the best case scenario.

Technically Maroon is a $2million/yr player. He is a pending RFA. At the age of 29 with 40-50 points he will want at least want $4.5@5years. The problem with Maroon he is nothing without McDavid and if McDavid is injured what good is Maroon. Is it the Oilers plan to keep putting pending RFA with McDavid and then signing them to big deals. Just like he did in Boston will the Oilers loose one or two of either RNH, Drake,Strome, Nurse and Benning so Chiarelli can resign Maroon, Letestu, and Talbot at the age of 32/33 will want a payday. He already signed Kris Russell. Oilers have enough depth on LW to let Maroon walk.

I think if Maroon explores his options & signs a big contract on another team it will be quickly shown that his numbers are seriously being inflated by playing on McDavids wing. His contract will become an anchor & he’ll end up getting bought out or placed on waivers.

I think the smartest move for Maroon is to do whatever he can to stay on McDavids wing & ride his coattails to glory.

Realistically, it should be a rotating door of getting a pretty good player on a pretty good contract (like Maroon), letting him light it up for two seasons to increase his value, then trade him for a younger version of the same player. Rinse and repeat.

We need value contracts playing with McDavid to have a chance at having a balanced team going forward. Paying Lucic, Russell, and Maroon $13-14M over the next four seasons will kill this team.

This is Maroon’s last chance to get PAID after making a below average salary for his whole career. He is not taking a discount.

I think Yamo goes back to Junior, not because he isn’t good enough, but because it saves a year of his ELC for next season and beyond when contract $ is going to be a tight squeeze. Depending on the difference in quality of player if you stack Yamo against guys like Pak, Slepy, and PoolParty, the difference needs to be insurmountable, otherwise its more cost effective to play one of those three and save Yamo for next year.

As for Maroon, it will depend on his recognition as a point producer playing alongside McDavid. Maroon put up pretty decent numbers in Anaheim once too playing with Getzlaf and Perry, his numbers away from players of that caliber speak a different story. Is he a great complimentary player? Yes. Is he a player who can run his line on his own? No. – A deal for 4 years @ 3.65M AAV should make sense for both sides, and is better to get done sooner rather than later.

Is there a scenario where Sekera is traded and Nuge and Maroon are both back next year?Or does a Maroon signing mean sail on Nuge +?

Light a candle for an increased cap indeed.

I would sign that deal in an instant. There’s nothing about maroons game that that we should worry about declining imo. He isn’t fast, and even if he lost half a step, his game doesn’t reply around speed at all

He would be 34 at the end of that deal. It’s the deal after that we need to be careful about.

For this reason, I think Lucic’s season will play a factor in this. If he has a subpar season, then it’s possible that Chiarelli likes Maroon & Nuge over Lucic & Nuge. And that’s when these NMCs rear their ugly head.
**********************************************************************
Maroon or Lucic?

Who would we prefer?

They tried real, real hard to make Lucic / McDavid work. Real hard.

It would be interesting to lose Maroon to free agency and be stuck with Lucic with his term
and price tag.

Again, hopefully Lucic has a better season but….you are bang on this is where NMC
will sting.

Anyone else getting the feeling that 17-18 might represent the McDavid Oilers’ best opportunity to win Stanley? Once that contract kicks in, the window is going to slide down an inch or two.

All the stars are aligning for 2023. Cap increases will have eroded the % given to McD and Leon. Nuge will have nearly developed his man strength. Nurse will have almost figured out how to play D. Looch will not only be even leaner and less slow, but will be able to make touchdown catches. Benson will be be close to full health, and Jussi will have one last run at a Cup. Book it.

Chiarelli is actually in a really tough spot as far as roster decisions go here.

On the one hand, him and maroon can agree to a reasonable deal before he has a 30 goal season and begins pricing himself out of EDM. But then if maroon signs, I don’t see how you can keep nuge, without dealing one of sekera/Russell.

If he waits, and maroon and strome produce (which they likely will), and the team struggles on defense, then you can’t deal sekera or Russell. So goodbye nuge, but then you need to replace him.

I’m not trying to be overly dramatic here and I expect this team to be in the hunt for years and years, but…
Anyone else getting the feeling that 17-18 might represent the McDavid Oilers’ best opportunity to win Stanley?
Once that contract kicks in, the window is going to slide down an inch or two.
****************************************************************************************
Agreed.

As mentioned by LT – drafting and internal development are going to be critical to surround McDavid and Drai with decent pieces.

Clay:
I still say Sekera is as likely to be dealt as Nuge.That said, if we see anything north of $5m for Maroon, it may be both going.

I’ve mentioned before that the first half of this season is a forced trial run of the team without Sekera.If they are successful, I don’t know why Chiarelli wouldn’t trade him.With Jones showing well, Nurse on the verge of pushing for a top-4 spot, and the team seemingly in love with Russell, Sekera would be much more replaceable than Nuge.

This is doubly true if Nuge and Jussi make music together.Pittsburgh has shown us that if you can roll three dangerous lines, having a big-name defensive end is not necessary.You just need smart, responsible dmen who can skate well and make a pass.

I’m not saying Sekera isn’t valuable – he’s an exceptional defenseman, and would rather he stay.But from an organizational point of view, there are players both on the roster and in the system that can and/or will replace Sekera with little or no drop-off in performance.The same can not be said for Nuge.The recency bias around him is strong, but we need to remember he is a gifted, gifted player coming off a down year.I hope like hell that Chia explores every other avenue first…

If a $6MM guy needs to go next year, here is my list of importance from most to least:

Sekera
Nuge
Lucic

If nothing happens this year to influence me to change the order, I’d like them to move Lucic.

I think it is unfair to Patrick Maroon to imply (or express) that his entire success is based off of McDavid.

Yes, of course, there is some zooming but Patrick needs some credit himself. He has worked his ass off to get in better shape and to hone his skills.

He has learned how to play with McDavid – its been somewhat clear over the last few years that not every winger put with McDavid will have success (Hall, Lucic).

The verbal that “anyone can score 20G with McDavid” isn’t true.

Patrick has also had success scoring goals as an Oiler not with McDavid – when split, he is still productive, not as productive of course, but still productive.

There is evidence that McDavid has more success with Maroon that without – of course the “help” is more the other way but it goes both ways based on stats.

Further, Maroon is more than goals – he is skilled size, he protects his teamates with emotional fights (I think he had 8 last year), he is a great teamate, he is great in the room, he is part of the swagger, etc.

Jesus it’ll be a damn shame to see RNH go. You only get guys like that through the draft or paying out the ass during FA. Hope I get to see a career year and the opportunity for him to lift the cup in Oilers silks

Seismic Source:
I just came back from the future Rick and Morty style. Maroon signs with St.Louis in the summer.

Rick and Morty never time travel, they adventure in the multiverse. And with infinite realities, Maroon signs with St. Louis, Oilers, even the Chicago Bears. Just have to use your portal gun to access which flavour you prefer!

stush18:
Chiarelli is actually in a really tough spot as far as roster decisions go here.

On the one hand, him and maroon can agree to a reasonable deal before he has a 30 goal season and begins pricing himself out of EDM. But then if maroon signs, I don’t see how you can keep nuge, without dealing one of sekera/Russell.

If he waits, and maroon and strome produce (which they likely will), and the team struggles on defense, then you can’t deal sekera or Russell. So goodbye nuge, but then you need to replace him.

Tough spot

Simple, deal Russell, not Sekera, Russell the inferior of the two players, by far.

I’m not trying to be overly dramatic here and I expect this team to be in the hunt for years and years, but…
Anyone else getting the feeling that 17-18 might represent the McDavid Oilers’ best opportunity to win Stanley?
Once that contract kicks in, the window is going to slide down an inch or two.
****************************************************************************************
Agreed.

As mentioned by LT – drafting and internal development are going to be critical to surround McDavid and Drai with decent pieces.

One of the most interesting things about Lucic is how different the fan verbal is to the teammate verbal.

To a lot of fans, Lucic is slow, trending downward, albatross contract, etc.

By contrast, his teammates love what he brings. I recall 3 or 4 soundbytes from last season about how great it was to have a guy that goes to the hard areas and simply can’t be moved once he’s there.

With Lucic and Maroon, their teammates love the fact that this player type will do the dirty work and do it well.

That’s why it’s difficult to evaluate these players based on boxcars alone. The reality is the Oil were a soft shitty team for a decade. Yes, McDavid floats all boats. But Chiarelli was also smart enough to up the ahole quotient with players like Lucic, Maroon, Kassian, Larsson and Grbya. To my eye, that’s had a massive impact and paid immediate dividends.

This team is now hard to play against and they have the roster versatility with size, speed and skill to play any style of game or matchup well against any type of opponent.

We coveted a true power forward for a decade and now that we have 1, 2, 3? we’re getting choosy on which ones to keep. To be fair, it’s a nice problem to have. Especially compared to the alternative which was hoping JF Jacques or Mitch Moroz was up for the task.

OriginalPouzar:
With respect to Maroon, very interesting – seems a little early to me and maybe not the best idea by our management considering Maroon is coming off a career year and I don’t see his value being any higher at any point – I expect a nice year for him but not quite approaching 30 goals and among the lead leaders in ES goals.

If he’s willing to sign for 3-4 years at an AAV at $3.5M or below then go for it – if not, I’m not so sure.

I don’t think he’s willing to sign such a contract give he was in the AHL a few years ago and this is his one chance for a medium term/medium money contract. I know he likes it here but money talks and we don’t really have it to spend.

If the refs keep calling the stick infractions, we may see McDavid really capitalize (and therefore Maroon) both at evens and on the PP, and if Maroon gets any PP time with him, it could get crazy. The whole league could be up in scoring so Maroon could very well outscore last season, and possibly by a decent margin.

OriginalPouzar: Not at all – as the cap increases year over year over the next decade (presumably), the cap space for secondary players grows and grows.

Well the only reason the cap has been going up is because of the magical escalator which players increasingly hate because every year more of their money is tied up in escrow. Financial people are worried about a market correction. Cap may not go up as much as we would hope

leadfarmer: Well the only reason the cap has been going up is because of the magical escalator which players increasingly hate because every year more of their money is tied up in escrow.Financial people are worried about a market correction.Cap may not go up as much as we would hope

I understand that, however, since its implementation, it has gone up year over year, consistently.

It may be artificial recently but its still increasing, even if not at the same rate as closer to its inception.

One of the most interesting things about Lucic is how different the fan verbal is to the teammate verbal.
To a lot of fans, Lucic is slow, trending downward, albatross contract, etc.
************************************************************************************
I agree with everything you say ….I am old school. I loved the signing – even acknowledging
that it was both and overpay and too long.

Lucic was slow and, more importantly had some really, really tough times with taking and making passes -at times. In addition, I thought he had sporadic defensive coverage issues – even in the playoffs.

For the most part, Looch did not seem to have any rhythm, except for a few games here or there.

To be fair – he himself has acknowledged his needs to get faster / quicker. And has reportedly come into camp leaner than last year.

If Lucic can have a bounce back year with Drai – we are headed for a great season….

Some people complained about giving them that much toi in the pre-season but the coach needs to see if they can do it

25 would be a reduction from what they played on Monday – Klef was up close to 28 I believe.

I could see them getting 24 or so during the regular season but I’m remiss to play them any more than that – I feel they will be less effective and more prone to injury which would be a perverse result.

McLellan needs to have confidence in his other two pairings – hopefully they earn the trust with their play.

I wonder if they run 77-6 for 25 min again?
Some people complained about giving them that much toi in the pre-season but the coach needs to see if they can do it
**********************************************************************
It is a long, grueling hockey season… especially for teams that appear to have playoff success written all over their roster..

In addition, the thought of getting injured playing in the middle of September, irks me.

Not a fan of the thought process that plays stars 25 min in pre season.

The minutes Larsson logged in last years playoffs, there’s no need to see the top pair playing heavy minutes in the preseason as the Oilers will need them to do it again in the playoffs. Coach knows they can do it, this isn’t for debate.

Completely against Yammer getting in any regular season games, send him back to junior let him dominate and grow alil before asking him to contribute on a Stanley cup contender.

Cut Chris Kelly, he’s a 3rd line C in the AHL.

Maroon will get the Russell contract, Klef was signed by MacT, Sekera will be asked to waive his NTC, if refused will be LTIR.

Nuclear leak:
The minutes Larsson logged in last years playoffs, there’s no need to see the top pair playing heavy minutes in the preseason as the Oilers will need them to do it again in the playoffs. Coach knows they can do it, this isn’t for debate.

Completely against Yammer getting in any regular season games, send him back to junior let him dominate and grow alil before asking him to contribute on a Stanley cup contender.

Cut Chris Kelly, he’s a 3rd line C in the AHL.

Maroon will get the Russell contract, Klef was signed by MacT, Sekera will be asked to waive his NTC, if refused will be LTIR.

Pouliot buyout hurts, but no Jokinen if no buyout.

Is asking for a 15% cap increase too much? Lol

1) You are incorrect – Klefbom was signed by Chiarelli in Sept 2015

2) Why in the world would they LTIR one of their best d-men in Sekera? Shit, if they should find a way to LTIR anyone, it would be Russell and his wonky groin.

Well LT count me as one of those who did not give Yammer, or Admiral, or KY, or Jelly much of a chance this pre season.

However you were correct and he has done very well. Would love to see how he does for 9 games sure, but even more I would like to see the team get off to a good start by winning those first 9 games. So if he’s the best option,let him go.

You have another good point in the success of Jelly may have implications of how they handle Jessie P. I’m surprised Jessie is not in tonight, he has to play. Cant help wondering if he is already in a very strong position or very weak position and a decision has already been made on him. Otherwise he needs to play.

A Maroon signing just seems like a no win situation. I doubt he signs for what Eaves got so once you pay him full value he is less valuable. I wrote a post on Oilers Nation about this. Find the next Patrick Maroon instead.

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Great post LT!I tend to agree with you SS.Maroon has made about $10MM by end of this year.

– I think the Maroon’s are going to be inter-changeable with good scouting and prescient trading, to play with McD. Maroon should want to get paid above all else.Oil won’t be highest bidder

– If I was Chia I’d want to see how the year plays out with Maroon and RNH, to see what to do

I think they should have invited Alex Chiasson and/or Jimmy Hayes to a tryout and signed the best performer in preseason. Give them both some time with McDavid. Oilers might find that they know how to score with McDavid, too, thereby decreasing Maroon’s value and bargaining power. If Maroon walks, then they have Hayes/Chiasson waiting to step in. In the mean time they’re great 3rd-4th line players. Verbal I’m reading from Washington and New Jersey is that they’re both having good preseasons.

On a personal note, I’m kinda hoping Maroon goes back to STL for he and his kid’s sake. His kid’s going to start understanding NHL contracts soon and will wonder why his dad didn’t take $1M less to play near him on a $2M-$2.5M x 7 year contract if he could get it from the Blues (which I’m sure he could). $2.86M x 7yrs = $20M. That sounds like a discount he might give to STL. That will take him to 38 years old. That is pretty decent security. I think STL would definitely go as high as $3.25M x 7, which is $22.75M. Ok, now I’m just throwing sh1t at the wall to see if it sticks. I’ll stop now.

Signing Maroon without dumping Lucic (which is impossible) would be a mistake. Two big slow declining 30 something wingers eating up over $10 million of the cap…a recipe for not winning Cups.

Add in Russell, and that is $15 million in cap space on declining 30-something players who are replaceable parts.

Russell can’t be traded if he doesn’t want to be traded.
Lucic can’t be traded if he plays like he did last year, and he can’t be traded anyways (NMC).
One more to that list would almost certainly be fatal.

Just an FYI, Nuge at 50 points is the same point/dollar value as Connor. And if he can do that with few PP points that’s good. Nuges contract should be getting better value, doubt we can sign another center man for those 50 points for much less.

“He is off the charts physically, kills it in all the testing, [which] frankly leads to a lot of other NHL goalies up here for camps rolling their eyes and saying ‘F.U., L.B.’ Because he does things that they struggle with, with so much ease. The power he gets in those shuffles to be able to stay on angle, keep access to his edges while moving laterally, is quite something to see. I think that’s the last two years that’s really evolved.”

I predict Kris Russell gets bought out next summer. His savings on a buyout are quite good (almost $3.4M). Lucic barely saves anything if you buy him out, so he will never be bought out or be traded. The toughest year of a Russell buyout will be 20-21 when they’re still paying him $3,611,111. But by then the cap will have gone up by $8M to about $83M and Sekera has possibly been traded away if necessary to make room for Nurse, Paigin, Jones, etc.

While Russell’s contract (length, cost & NMC) was brutal the payout structure, at least makes a buyout a reasonable option. So maybe Chia didn’t make such a stupid move after all. Maybe that was the plan all along. He knew he needed Russell with Sekera out, so he had to pay him and give him term and NMC, but he made the buyout affordable for next summer.

Sekera has a full NMC for next year, it won’t be the GM making the decision on if he’ll be traded.

Lucic and Russell too. All three are veterans that the coach and GM trusts.

Look elsewhere for cap room.

This season is going to be a tell on a number of our younger players, so I really doubt all of our RFAs will be back. Could be more than one or two leaving… maybe even Puljujarvi too of the return is right.

I hope they sign Maroon, it will be tough to find another player like him relatively cheap, and I’d prefer we spend the Nuge savings on Connor’s RW and find an inexpensive D-first center for the third line.

Maroon has played well here, especially with McDavid, but he’s a guy that arrived to the show late, has always not been in peak condition, and was sliding down the depth chart in Anaheim before being traded to the Oilers.

That’s not a guy I commit to long term. He could very well be a greek god in terms of conditioning going forward, but he may slip as well. He scored 40 points last season playing on the best line in hockey. He’s not great in the defensive end either. Not really a swiss army knife guy.

You have to get Maroon for around $3 X 3. I think If its more than that you have to let him walk. I think Cagguila would do just as well on the top line.

Regarding Khaira, I think he’s been decent in preseason. I’m not super high on him as he doesn’t appear to have NHL level offence, but the verbal coming off the Oilers site makes he think hes as locked onto the roster as anyone can be. Hopefully he can Travis Moen a long career. He seems to have the right attitude.

I’m watching the game tonight with the sound off….which I did against the Jets. The PK in particular became that much more obvious. Although slightly flawed in the 1st…it was nearly a work of art in the 2nd and 3rd.

godot10:
Signing Maroon without dumping Lucic (which is impossible) would be a mistake.Two big slow declining 30 something wingers eating up over $10 million of the cap…a recipe for not winning Cups.

Add in Russell, and that is $15 million in cap space on declining 30-something players who are replaceable parts.

Russell can’t be traded if he doesn’t want to be traded.
Lucic can’t be traded if he plays like he did last year, and he can’t be traded anyways (NMC).
One more to that list would almost certainly be fatal.

Chiarelli is Bruinizing the Oilers cap space before winning a Cup.

I love how you turn two 29 year olds into declining 30 somethings.
3 X 3.3 for Maroon would be fine IMO.

RNH has always been the most valuable Austin in my mind. From a team perspective. Not whatever/60 argument that can be made. He’s a unique player and does a very good job of his role. Scarce things are more valuable than commonly found things.

The men running this club come out in the press and say how valuable RNH is all the time. He is not easily replaced compared to Maroon.

Well, with 6 years left on the deal, I think we’re all in the hope boat with Milan.

I think the challenge with this player at this point in his career is A) wheels & B) he plays better when he’s angry, but his rep is so well established now, there’s not many opponents willing to take a run.

Lucic is a bear that needs poking.

You know what might work? Put Kassian opposite him on RW. Sometimes the physical guys see their linemates tearing it up and that gets them going.

I would love to see TMac try a Lucic/Drai/Kassian line for a few shifts. Talk about a load on the cycle.

The Oilers are never going to have a better chance to win the Stanley Cup than this year. They have 10 million dollars of free cap space from McDavid’s ELC at the exact same time as the entire rest of the league is mired in mediocrity due to a combination of age and bad contracts. Has a single contending team gotten better in the offseason? The time is now.

After this year, however, the Oilers become the team on the decline. According to cap friendly they are at $66 million for next year for only 13 contracts, and the need to re-sign or replace, Maroon, Strome, Caggiula, Nurse, and Benning.

So they are screwed. They need some combination of those guys to play well, so they can win, but if they play so the Oilers can win, then they won’t be able to afford them, in the future. In two years, Talbot needs to be re-signed. We are coming to the point where each player you sign to fair market value is going to cost you another player because you can’t pay everyone fair market value.

So the question concerning Maroon is not what is fair market value, because the Oilers can’t afford to pay fair market value anymore. The question is who would you rather pay longterm. Arguably, the Oilers have already chosen Maroon over Eberle, wrongly in my opinion, since Eberle, even last year, is a much better player. Now it looks like they are doubling down on that mistake.

LoDog: I love how you turn two 29 year olds into declining 30 somethings.
3 X 3.3 for Maroon would be fine IMO.

Maroon’s new contract will begin when he is 30. Lucic will be 30 next year. Russell is already 30.

None of these guys are core players, but they are being signed like they are core players. One should pay ones’ drivers, and everyone else should be ground down to a pulp at the bargaining table, not necessarily on money, but definitely on duration.

I think if Maroon explores his options & signs a big contract on another team it will be quickly shown that his numbers are seriously being inflated by playing on McDavids wing. His contract will become an anchor & he’ll end up getting bought out or placed on waivers.
*************************************************************************

Cassandra,
I think you are looking at their expenditure (around $66 million) versus the actual cap hit.

Cap Friendly shows them around 60.75 million plus JP’s 2.5 mil. In that group of 13, three centers, top 4 defenders, goalie, and a few wingers on decent contracts (Lucic excluded). They also have a variety of emerging contracts in Yamamoto, Jones, Bear, etc who could slot in.

The core of the team is locked up. Not really sure how that puts them “on the decline”.

I think the most interesting story this year, and perhaps the only spot where the team is lacking, is at RW. Hopefully one of these guys can emerge, it would solve a lot of problems.

In all seriousness, what your ‘assessment’ overlooks is how well Chiarelli has been restocking the amateur pipeline. He inherited a club bereft of D and G prospects and now the org. is positively brimming over with talent at those positions. And on the F front, JP, Benson and Yamamoto are still in the legitimate prospect portion of their life-cycle.

Everyone remembers Boston but Chiarelli cut his teeth in Ottawa as an assistant GM for a budget team that had too and did excel at amateur procurement.

Ala Pitt with Sheary, Rust and Kuhnhackl, you need to restock with low cost entry level deals to keep the window open. That’s the reality for every legitimate contender. Your assessment assumes that 1) the Oil are unique in this obstacle & 2) the prospect pipeline is not being addressed. Neither is accurate.

Every team’s window closes if they can’t replace inflationary vets with bargain talent. This is hardly a newsflash. I think the pain you’re feeling is your Canucks are not a legitimate contender and your prospect pipeline is spotty at best. So yeah, 5-6 years of mediocrity coming…minimum.

I think we’re approaching the peak however, like the market, it is tough to call the top. You look for the leading indicators (future cap space), bubble like mentality (potential big payday for Maroon while everyone knows he’s getting zoomed), and an excessive tolerance to risk (let’s play Talbot 75+ games with LB as a back-up). All point to a top.

But, McDavid (and to a lesser extent Drai/Klef/Larrson) all are still strongly trending up and they make up the core “value” of the Oilers. Generally people underestimate the value of “superstars” in business, market and sports. They overvalue fringe contributors because it is too difficult to isolate the variables. McDavid is a superstar. I think we’re all still radically undervaluing him. That fact alone would make me BTFD if the Oilers’ cup chances were the market right now.

I’d say we’re 2 – 3 years away from a market top for the Oilers’ chances, could be 1, could be 4.

What I do know is that the Canucks window slammed shut. Enjoy your next 5 years in the wilderness.

Cassandra:
The Oilers are never going to have a better chance to win the Stanley Cup than this year.They have 10 million dollars of free cap space from McDavid’s ELC at the exact same time as the entire rest of the league is mired in mediocrity due to a combination of age and bad contracts.Has a single contending team gotten better in the offseason?The time is now.

After this year, however, the Oilers become the team on the decline.According to cap friendly they are at $66 million for next year for only 13 contracts, and the need to re-sign or replace, Maroon, Strome, Caggiula, Nurse, and Benning.

So they are screwed.They need some combination of those guys to play well, so they can win, but if they play so the Oilers can win, then they won’t be able to afford them, in the future.In two years, Talbot needs to be re-signed.We are coming to the point where each player you sign to fair market value is going to cost you another player because you can’t pay everyone fair market value.

So the question concerning Maroon is not what is fair market value, because the Oilers can’t afford to pay fair market value anymore.The question is who would you rather pay longterm.Arguably, the Oilers have already chosen Maroon over Eberle, wrongly in my opinion, since Eberle, even last year, is a much better player.Now it looks like they are doubling down on that mistake.

It’s $60m next season, not $66m. Plus say $2m in a cap bump give the Oil $17m in cap space.

Maroon ~$3m
Strome ~ $3m
Benning ~ $3m
Nurse ~ $3m
Letestu ~ $2m

That puts them (with bonuses) right at the cap. Not the best situation, but it also doesn’t account for moving out a contract or letting an RFA or UFA walk. Next season is the tough one, but after that, modified NMC’s for Russell and Sekera gives more flexibility for PC. Theoretically, as previously mentioned, Russell could be bought out, although that is not ideal.

Realistically RNH is probably the odd man out which is tremendously unfortunate, but calling the team one on decline is just humorous. I suppose the Pens have been on a decline the past few years also?

flea:Cassandra,
I think you are looking at their expenditure (around $66 million) versus the actual cap hit.

Cap Friendly shows them around 60.75 million plus JP’s 2.5 mil. In that group of 13, three centers, top 4 defenders, goalie, and a few wingers on decent contracts (Lucic excluded). They also have a variety of emerging contracts in Yamamoto, Jones, Bear, etc who could slot in.

The core of the team is locked up. Not really sure how that puts them “on the decline”.

I think the most interesting story this year, and perhaps the only spot where the team is lacking, is at RW. Hopefully one of these guys can emerge, it would solve a lot of problems.

You are correct on the numbers, I misread the line, but it doesn’t change the situation. 14 M to rre-sign 10 or 11 players means that you are not going to bring back your supporting cast year over year, even if you trade Nugent Hopkins. The best case scenario is that Strome, Benning, and Nurse emerge, but if they do, how are you going to pay them the 4 Million plus they are going to command.

The core of this team is not locked up, unless you think McDavid, Draisatl, Larsson, and Klefbom can win this thing by themselves.

That puts them (with bonuses) right at the cap.Not the best situation, but it also doesn’t account for moving out a contract or letting an RFA or UFA walk.Next season is the tough one, but after that, modified NMC’s for Russell and Sekera gives more flexibility for PC.Theoretically, as previously mentioned, Russell could be bought out, although that is not ideal.

Realistically RNH is probably the odd man out which is tremendously unfortunate, but calling the team one on decline is just humorous.I suppose the Pens have been on a decline the past few years also?

I think your numbers are all on the extreme low side. If Benning, Nurse, and Strome play well they are all going to command northward of 4 million.

In all seriousness, what your ‘assessment’ overlooks is how well Chiarelli has been restocking the amateur pipeline. He inherited a club bereft of D and G prospects and now the org. is positively brimming over with talent at those positions. And on the F front, JP, Benson and Yamamoto are still in the legitimate prospect portion of their life-cycle.

Everyone remembers Boston but Chiarelli cut his teeth in Ottawa as an assistant GM for a budget team that had too and did excel at amateur procurement.

Ala Pitt with Sheary, Rust and Kuhnhackl, you need to restock with low cost entry level deals to keep the window open. That’s the reality for every legitimate contender. Your assessment assumes that 1) the Oil are unique in this obstacle & 2) the prospect pipeline is not being addressed. Neither is accurate.

Every team’s window closes if they can’t replace inflationary vets with bargain talent. This is hardly a newsflash. I think the pain you’re feeling is your Canucks are not a legitimate contender and your prospect pipeline is spotty at best. So yeah, 5-6 years of mediocrity coming…minimum.

Every team has to do this, but Chiarelli has saddled himself with so many self-inflicted wounds (Draisatl, Lucic, Russell) that he needs to hit on more of these low cost contracts than other teams.

So far he has hit on Benning. That’s it. And that low cost contract is about to stop being low cost.

Yamamoto is a nice pick, but our expectation should be Tyler Ennis. Good player, but not the saviour.

Benson is trending down. Getting anything from him is gravy.

Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear have to hit. They have to.

Puljujarvi is the trump card here. He’s the x-factor that can extend the window of dominance.

But the real difference is our expectations. The Oilers were gifted McDavid at the exact same moment that all of their competitors are trending down. The window for at least a mini-dynasty is here. Being a contender is nowhere near good enough, especially when there is so much evidence of squandering of resources and talent. This team should have been the no doubt best team in the league.

Cassandra: I think your numbers are all on the extreme low side.If Benning, Nurse, and Strome play well they are all going to command northward of 4 million.

Good news bad news situation there. If the perform the team does better this season, and if they do command more than $4m they will have to walk. The result of that is likely RNH is able to stick around.

When you say McDavid, Drai, Klefbom, Larsson and Talbot – I see that as the core. Top two centers, top two defenders, top goalie. There are complimentary pieces signed (Kassian, Khaira, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi)

The cap is tight next year, but it isn’t that dire. Long season to go here in 2017. Who would’ve guessed last year that Benning would be emerging as a top 4? There are just too many variables that go one throughout a season to project out even a year, and say with certainty they’ll be in trouble.

I fully expect Chiarelli will make aggressive moves throughout the year. And really – this is the way of the new NHL. There are better players available at the deadline every year that there are in Free Agency, and it is far less risk for teams to take them on. There will be teams that fade who were supposed to be good, and opportunities will arise that none of us can predict. Looking forward to it!

Pink Socks: I…. I have no words for this. I cannot even comprehend this type of reasoning.

With Letang injured last years team was nowhere near their best. They had better teams the years Fleury cost them the cup, for instance.

It is possible to win the cup without being at your best, or being the best team in the league. Do you dispute this?

The best Chicago team was the first one to win, the one with guys like Ladd and Byfuglien as supporting players. That was a great team. Everything after that was decline. Still good enough to win, but nowhere near as good.

I was sad to see Hall go, but knew it was to bring better balance and Larson has been fantastic, Eberle laid an egg in the postseason and although is still a strong player had to go… the return looks like it could be equivalent $/offensive production.

I do not want to see RNH go. Teams know we can’t keep him, so they will offer little in trade.
I want to see him an Oiler for years to come. I think he brings something that is hard to replace in solid 2-way play and some wildcard witchcraftery…

Can they just find a way to squeeze by until the end of his contract, and then sign him for $4M? I dunno. He can get more $ as a FA, for sure. So I think Chia will be forced to pull the trigger when an adequate trade presents itself…
Sad, but can’t really see a situation where he stays. It’s a real shame.
We start to feel the realities of our own Kane/Toews signings….

Pink Socks: Good news bad news situation there.If the perform the team does better this season, and if they do command more than $4m they will have to walk. The result of that is likely RNH is able to stick around.

It is only good news/bad news if they win this year. Otherwise it is bad news/bad news.

The Penguins were absolutely on the decline the last few years.This is obvious.

Every team has to do this, but Chiarelli has saddled himself with so many self-inflicted wounds (Draisatl, Lucic, Russell) that he needs to hit on more of these low cost contracts than other teams.

So far he has hit on Benning.That’s it.And that low cost contract is about to stop being low cost.

Yamamoto is a nice pick, but our expectation should be Tyler Ennis.Good player, but not the saviour.

Benson is trending down.Getting anything from him is gravy.

Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear have to hit.They have to.

Puljujarvi is the trump card here.He’s the x-factor that can extend the window of dominance.

But the real difference is our expectations.The Oilers were gifted McDavid at the exact same moment that all of their competitors are trending down. The window for at least a mini-dynasty is here.Being a contender is nowhere near good enough, especially when there is so much evidence of squandering of resources and talent.This team should have been the no doubt best team in the league.

You can’t have it both ways. If Chiarelli doesn’t plug the obvious roster holes with vets (i.e. what you describe as self-inflicted wounds), then he’s not even placing his team into the legitimate contender role to begin with. Lucic was the Hall replacement so he could address the gaping hole at 1D. That’s the reality. Draisaitl, a self-inflicted wound? Laughable. In two years, every team in the league would willingly take that contract. And Russell? Sekera insurance with a contract you can move in 2 years.

In short, your argument is essentially the Oilers are done after this season cos they signed Lucic.

The issue isn’t overpaying on contracts. That begins largely moot if the pipeline is flowing with legitimate new NHLers each year. And if the Oilers pipeline is suspect, then how would describe the Canucks? An indictable offense?

I do not want to see RNH go. Teams know we can’t keep him, so they will offer little in trade.
I want to see him an Oiler for years to come. I think he brings something that is hard to replace in solid 2-way play and some wildcard witchcraftery…

Can they just find a way to squeeze by until the end of his contract, and then sign him for $4M? I dunno. He can get more $ as a FA, for sure. So I think Chia will be forced to pull the trigger when an adequate trade presents itself…
Sad, but can’t really see a situation where he stays. It’s a real shame.
We start to feel the realities of our own Kane/Toews signings….

Anyways…

GOILERS!

Even with the Maroon talk, its simply too early to know if we will be needing to trade Nuge next spring/summer or not. It looks like a realistic option but there is a full season to play and much can change.

As far the actual trade return, if it happens, expectations should be guarded. Lets remember, any such trade will be made almost entirely for cap relief reasons. In order to get actual value back, we would need that to be with prominent draft picks and/or close to NHL-ready prospects.

A material NHL player cannot be coming back and, if one does, we are looking at an Eberle-Strome type deal.

At the end of the day, the pick/prospect scenario, while weakening the team for the up and coming season, might be the best option as it will serve to replenish the draft pick/prospect currency we will, presumably, be spending at the deadline this season.

I want to be clear about next year (2018-2019). There are 13 players signed for a total of $60,783,667. There are the following players coming up on unrestricted or restricted free agency:

UFA
-Fayne
-Maroon
-Letestu
-Jokinen

RFA
-Strome
-Slepyshev
-Caggiula
-Pakarinen
-Benning
-Nurse
-Brossoit

It is obvious the Oilers will let Fayne go and fill that position with someone much cheaper. Presumably somebody from the development system.

After that who knows. But it is quite possible the Oilers will be in enough cap pain to force them to offload RNH’s contract. It is also possible that they can easily fit everyone under next year’s cap.

The irony is the better the Oilers play this year the more likely they are in real cap hell next year.

I am on record as saying I think the Oilers win the Cup this year. The effect of which will be to put them in a dire situation in regards the cap. We saw what getting to a Stanley Cup final did in 2006.

I am also on record as saying that I can see that by 2020-2021 they will be serious contenders every year from there to the end of 2024-2025. However those future cup contenders will only share a small handful of players in common with the current team. Scouting and development and shrewd negotiating are the keys to that rosy future coming to pass.

I guess I am saying I agree with Cassandra that this is the first time the Stanley Cup window has opened since the Oilers drafted McDavid. I also agree that the Oilers are actually likely to be less competitive in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 than they will be this year. Where I radically disagree is that it seems likely there will be a multi-year window in the second half of the McDavid contract.

So, the Pakarinan shot off Talbot’s mask that Cam was upset at wasn’t a total isolated incident.

As per Gregor:

“Iiro Pakarinen ripped a shot off Cam Talbot’s collarbone in practice this morning. Talbot wasn’t happy. He hammered his stick over the crossbar right after, but was fine later on. Pakarinen rung one off the crossbar later in practice with Talbot in net. I guess he likes going top shelf. In a drill on Wednesday both nets were moved into the same end and lined up along the boards by the circles. Two coaches lined up with pucks at the top of each circle, and the players were in one corner. The first shooter would exit the left corner and skate towards the opposite net (along the boards) and receive a pass and one-time it on Talbot. The shooter would stop, go back across the ice towards the other net and receive another pass and one-time it on Brossoit. In that drill Pakarinen ripped one high off of Talbot as well. Head coach McLellan saw the shot, looked at Talbot and shook his head. High shots happen during the course of the season, but that many in a few practices from Pakarinen won’t have him in Talbot’s good books this week.”

VOR:
I guess I am saying I agree with Cassandra that this is the first time the Stanley Cup window has opened since the Oilers drafted McDavid. I also agree that the Oilers are actually likely to be less competitive in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 than they will be this year. Where I radically disagree is that it seems likely there will be a multi-year window in the second half of the McDavid contract.

Bag of Pucks: One of the most interesting things about Lucic is how different the fan verbal is to the teammate verbal.

To a lot of fans, Lucic is slow, trending downward, albatross contract, etc.

By contrast, his teammates love what he brings. I recall 3 or 4 soundbytes from last season about how great it was to have a guy that goes to the hard areas and simply can’t be moved once he’s there.

With Lucic and Maroon, their teammates love the fact that this player type will do the dirty work and do it well.

That’s why it’s difficult to evaluate these players based on boxcars alone. The reality is the Oil were a soft shitty team for a decade. Yes, McDavid floats all boats. But Chiarelli was also smart enough to up the ahole quotient with players like Lucic, Maroon, Kassian, Larsson and Grbya. To my eye, that’s had a massive impact and paid immediate dividends.

This team is now hard to play against and they have the roster versatility with size, speed and skill to play any style of game or matchup well against any type of opponent.

We coveted a true power forward for a decade and now that we have 1, 2, 3? we’re getting choosy on which ones to keep. To be fair, it’s a nice problem to have. Especially compared to the alternative which was hoping JF Jacques or Mitch Moroz was up for the task.

This is a really great post. Math doesn’t love some of those power forwards but they changed the complexion of this team and allowed them to play different styles of games. Up until last year, seeing my team get bullied night after night made the losing even worse.

Hunter – my 88 point prediction from last year made me look bad – I can do better.

Cassandra:
It is possible to win the cup without being at your best, or being the best team in the league.Do you dispute this?

It is possible to win the cup without being at your best. It is not possible without being the best team in the league. These are two separate questions. The Pens won the cup. Back to back. That is the point of awarding such a trophy, it goes to the best team in the league. The team is built for regular season success and has the correct formula for post season success.

The best team in the league by your standard is what, the President’s Trophy winner? I’m sure Caps fans would disagree.

PC’s job is to 1) get in the playoffs, 2) win the cup, 3) win it again, 4) you get the point. PC is attempting to build a team to achieve these goals. While fans may not agree with certain contracts or trades, the proof is on the ice. Assuming things would have been different had certain decisions been made differently is pure conjecture and you know it.

The Pens are not on the decline the past few years, they have rings to prove it. The reason why? Backfilling positions via trade and their prospect pool. What PC has done tremendously well is restocking the prospect pool at each and every position, with exceptional improvements in goal and on defense. Do you dispute that?

Jaxon:
I predict Kris Russell gets bought out next summer. His savings on a buyout are quite good (almost $3.4M). Lucic barely saves anything if you buy him out, so he will never be bought out or be traded. The toughest year of a Russell buyout will be 20-21 when they’re still paying him $3,611,111. But by then the cap will have gone up by $8M to about $83M and Sekera has possibly been traded away if necessary to make room for Nurse, Paigin, Jones, etc.

While Russell’s contract (length, cost & NMC) was brutal the payout structure, at least makes a buyout a reasonable option. So maybe Chia didn’t make such a stupid move after all. Maybe that was the plan all along. He knew he needed Russell with Sekera out, so he had to pay him and give him term and NMC, but he made the buyout affordable for next summer.

You go to Kris at the end of (a hopefully successful season) and ask him to waive his no-trade – Vegas is nice, good golfing, etc. He says yes, you get a nice asset. He says no you suck up $611K and $1.111M for two seasons and then in the 2020 lock-out you get the clear the books through some CBA shenanigans.

I seriously hadn’t even thought of a buyout of Russell until you mentioned it Jaxon. I think you are on to something here.

LT, I think we have an alternate plan to consider when you next run the Cap Numbers.

Pouzar: “He is off the charts physically, kills it in all the testing, [which] frankly leads to a lot of other NHL goalies up here for camps rolling their eyes and saying ‘F.U., L.B.’ Because he does things that they struggle with, with so much ease. The power he gets in those shuffles to be able to stay on angle, keep access to his edges while moving laterally, is quite something to see. I think that’s the last two years that’s really evolved.”

— Kevin Woodley of In Goal magazine

Easiest $$ I ever made.

If he could stop chasing bees in his crease and stay in position it will be easy money for you.

Melvis:
I’m watching the game tonight with the sound off….which I did against the Jets. The PK in particular became that much more obvious. Although slightly flawed in the 1st…it was nearly a work of art in the 2nd and 3rd.