Assist in testing and evaluating the improved
HWRF-Wave-Ocean coupled system.

Evaluation and Improvements of Cloud and Precipitation
Physics in the Operational Hurricane WRF Model at NOAA/EMC: Y. Wang and V.
Phillips (Univ. of Hawai.i)

Evaluate and identify possible discrepancies in current
cloud and precipitation physics used in the HWRF model and understand how
these discrepancies may affect hurricane structure and intensity.

Diagnose discrepancies of the current cloud and
precipitation physics and the interaction between grid-scale moist
processes and subgrid-scale convection in the HWRF model and to understand
how they affect hurricane intensity and structure, including size.

Improve the representation of the cloud and precipitation
physics in the HWRF model based on the PI and co-I.s previously results
and evaluate the performance of the modified schemes through model
inter-comparison between the HWRF model and TCM4.

Test and tune the modified schemes in the experimental
prediction mode and to evaluate their overall improvements in predicting
hurricane structure and intensity using the HWRF model hindcasts for the
cases in the 2010 hurricane season.

Document the modified schemes with both technical and
scientific details and to provide training to the members of the HWRF
model development team at NCEP/EMC.

Evaluate different vertical mixing schemes, including one
proposed by Kantha and Clayson that is now being added to HYCOM

Improve ocean model initialization by evaluating ocean
hindcasts available from operational centers (particularly NCEP and NRL)
and provide feedback for improving these products, including the
identification of deficiencies in observational coverage

Evaluate and improve HYCOM.s predictability of the AWP and
associated mesoscale ocean features for NCEP/EMC transition to operational
hurricane forecast

Deliver an improved Real Time Ocean Forecasting System for
Atlantic that will be equipped with flux bias correction scheme (with an
option to couple with an atmospheric mixed layer model), an optimized
vertical coordinate scheme and on-line heat budget diagnosis routine.

Develop four new applications and provide four code
modifications to address model limitations.

The calculation of the probability distributions of the
storm intensity just before landfall and timing of landfall to supplement
the wind probability table information, which provides the intensity
distributions at fixed times

Creation and evaluation of 5-year database of
incremental probabilities for U.S. landfall storms at coastal breakpoints

Development of a .line-integral. option that estimates
the probabilities for any portion of a specified set of line segments for
aid in interpretation and issuance of watches and warnings

Development of an automated method for using the text
probability product to provide guidance on watch/warning locations and
timing.

Optimize the WSRA digital beamforming and range centroid
tracking algorithms, conversion of the processing algorithms into a
multi-threaded C application, and deployment of a multi-core PC processor
to execute in-flight processing.

Provide continuous real-time reporting of directional
ocean wave spectra, significant wave height and the radius of 12. seas
from the NOAA P-3 aircraft to the National Hurricane Center through a
satellite data link.

Improve the operational RII by including predictors
derived from three new sources of inner core.

Time evolution of inner-core structure as deduced from
GOES IR imagery.

Microwave-derived total precipitable water

Inner-core fluxes of heat and moisture obtained from
the sea-surface temperature computed from the SHIPS inner-core sea-surface
temperature cooling algorithm as well as the operational GFS surface
temperature and relative humidity forecast fields.