Segmented approach could put beleaguered line back on track

By John Aguilar Camera Staff Writer

Posted:
10/07/2013 09:40:44 PM MDT

DENVER -- The Regional Transportation District provided a first glimpse Monday at the latest ridership numbers and cost estimates for the proposed Northwest Rail Line, giving some in the corridor hope that the long-sought commuter train between Denver and Longmont could be rolling down the tracks sooner than 30 years from now.

The preliminary estimates, which come from the year-long Northwest Area Mobility Study, envision a Northwest Rail Line delivered in segments from its planned terminus in Westminster -- the first one to Broomfield, the next to Louisville, then a segment to Boulder and finally a piece to Longmont.

The study also contemplates 100 miles of bus rapid transit routes connecting Boulder to Longmont, Longmont to Lafayette, Louisville to Broomfield, and Broomfield to points east.

Though Monday's projected costs for commuter rail in the northwest quadrant are not significantly lower than what RTD received from BNSF last year as an estimate for using the railroad's tracks in the corridor -- $1.7 billion -- officials are feeling like consensus is forming about how to move forward while at the same time sensing that new avenues of funding for the project could be opening up.

"It we can get consensus on a plan, our chances of getting it funded are better," Louisville Mayor Bob Muckle said Monday. "This study has really generated a lot of information."

Chuck Sisk, an RTD director and former Louisville mayor, said the feeling among transportation planners and civic leaders about the future of the Northwest Rail Line is different today -- namely more hopeful -- than it was last year when prospects for the train, which is part of the FasTracks system approved by metro area voters nine years ago, appeared to derail in the face of ballooning cost projections and funding shortfalls.

Instead of a completion date for the Northwest Rail Line of 2042 -- the oft-cited year that the project could become reality without an additional FasTracks tax hike -- Sisk said with the right funding mix, significant parts of the line could be operational within the next decade.

"We took a couple of shots last year, but I see people getting up and I see resilience among people in the northwest corridor," he said. "We're back up on our feet."

Statewide tax could be critical

Colorado transportation planners point to the possibility of a statewide transportation sales tax measure slated for the November 2014 ballot as a critical potential funding source for a multitude of road and transit projects, including Northwest Rail. The measure is being proposed by a consortium of regional organizations in the state, known as MPACT64.

The tax would be a 7/10th cent sales tax, of which one third would go to fund transit projects in Colorado. Sixty percent of that total -- estimated by RTD to be $100 million to $120 million a year for 15 years -- would go to the transit agency.

RTD General Manager Phil Washington said those revenues, along with other potential funding sources at the state and federal level, convinces him that Northwest Rail and bus rapid transit in and around Boulder County is going to "get done sooner than later."

Residents in the northwest corridor have for some time cried foul as they've watched commuter rail between Denver and Boulder stall as FasTracks light rail lines in other parts of the metro area fall into place and even reach completion.

Washington said the Northwest Area Mobility Study, which launched in April and is due to wrap up early next year with a set of recommendations for the RTD board, has helped put things into perspective and identified ways to move forward in a time of tight budgets and expensive demands.

"I would call it progress," he said Monday. "It's progress in terms of stakeholders coming together on a study and agreeing on the process of that study."

Sisk said if the statewide transportation tax in 2014 makes the ballot and is approved by the voters, it should give RTD enough financial flexibility that it won't have to approach metro area voters for a FasTracks tax hike -- something the agency contemplated doing in 2012 before dismissing the idea.

"I don't see RTD coming back and saying we need another tax on top of (the transportation) tax," Sisk said.

But even if RTD can tap into the new source of funding, the numbers to get the 41 miles of Northwest Rail into place are still daunting.

The 11-mile segment of rail between Westminster and Broomfield may cost as much is $681 million, though RTD points out that that total includes a hefty fee to BNSF for the purchase of full corridor operating rights and to build a maintenance facility for the line.

By comparison, the segment between Louisville and Boulder -- also 11 miles -- would top out at $295 million, according to the preliminary estimates.

Chris Quinn, RTD project manager for the study, said the cost ranges for each segment may seem steep, but they work out to about $30 million to $37 million a mile for the entire line -- not exorbitant by industry standards.

"On a per-mile basis, the corridor is not terribly expensive," he said. "But it's a long corridor."

Northwest Rail may be answer for Longmont

So long that Longmont, which sits at the end of the Northwest Rail Line, began looking at alternative ways of getting a commuter train to the city. It considered connecting with the North Metro Line -- which will run from Denver to 162nd Avenue and Colorado Boulevard -- via a 19.5-mile spur along Colo. 119.

But the mobility study shows that building a North Metro extension to Longmont could cost up to $834 million and have a daily ridership of only 840 to 900 boardings. That contrasts with the eight-mile segment of Northwest Rail between Boulder and Longmont, which tops out at $243 million and would handle up to 1,600 boardings a day.

Longmont Mayor Dennis Coombs said as long as the segments of Northwest Rail east to Westminster actually get built, it probably doesn't make sense financially for Longmont to pursue the North Metro extension any longer.

He said he remains "cautiously optimistic" that commuter rail between his city and Denver will take shape, largely because the divisions that once marked the varying interests along the corridor have lessened.

"I'm sensing more political will among the players in the corridor than I was sensing a year ago," he said. "There's more unity."

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