J.J. Watt thinks regression predictions are for those who are ‘sitting behind their desks’

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There’s plenty of people who believe it would be unreasonable for fans to expect J.J. Watt to replicate the outsized numbers that won him that award last year. His insane stats may have been one of the best defensive years in history.

Some recent articles predicting Watt regression that are worth reading include the following (most written with fantasy football numbers in mind, but worth a read for non-fantasy fans):

When I asked him about those who talk about his 2013 numbers regressing from the outsized numbers from last year, he responded:

“They are probably sitting behind a desk somewhere. I’m out here working. I’m in the weight room putting in work, so anybody sitting behind a desk or talking to a camera can say whatever they like. I’m just going to go out here and put my work in every single day. I’m going to do what I do and people can say whatever they want about me. They can say I’m the best in the world, they can say I’m the worst in the world. I could literally not care any less. I’m just going to put in the work to be the best I can possibly be and I’ll go from there.”

This is all true.

If you are writing about regression, the optimal place to be doing that is from a desk for just ergonomic reasons.

And J.J. Watt and all football players can’t pay attention to what the odds are.

What is a reasonable prediction for J.J. Watt?

I am not sure what is reasonable prediction for J.J. Watt in 2013. Some of the things he was doing from his position on the field that he played were unprecedented, particularly as it related to his pass defense numbers, run stops and overall defensive stops.

And doing this at age 23. With an elbow that was dislocated in camp which tore all his elbow ligaments. (For those concerned, Watt says in camp now, “I feel good. My body feels really good.”)

Part of the issues evaluating him is just that he hasn’t played for very long. And some of his numbers are just not easily comparable to others because the numbers are so odd for the position he plays.

Worth noting that unlike a lot of past players with outsized sack numbers, he is not a one-trick pass rush pony. He plays the run as well as he plays the pass.

A reason for optimism for Texans fans is that the defensive scheme under Wade Phillips gives him some flexibility to take advantage of matchups and being aggressive. That Phillips allows players to do what they are able to do, and in Watt’s case, it is a lot.

Even so, what do you think is reasonable for Watt in 2013?

Or maybe being unreasonable is being reasonable? Here’s the 2012 Watt numbers from various sources already linked: 20.5 sacks, 69 solo tackles, 16 passes defensed, 76 total pressures, 52 total stops in the running game, 39 tackles for a loss.