It may be reading tea leaves but
analysis of the walk-up to Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit and
his sojourn in Islamabad suggests that Pakistan may be about to fight battles
on two fronts rather than just the Indian one in the wake of this month’s
attacks in Kashmir.

Pakistani
Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi seemed to fine tune the officer’s
statement by not mentioning Yemen in his remarks to the Saudi paper and
limiting Pakistan’s commitment to the kingdom itself. “If anyone would create
chaos in or attack the Kingdom, Pakistan would stand by its brethren Saudi
Arabia,” Mr. Qureishi said.

The stakes for Pakistan that borders
on Iran and is home to the world’s largest minority Shiite Muslim community
could not be higher.

Concerned that Pakistan’s position may
be shifting, Iran this week dialled up the rhetoric by warning that Pakistan
would “pay
a high price”
for last
week’s attack in the
Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan that killed 27 Revolutionary
Guards.

In the past, Iran has by and large
said that militants who had launched attacks were Iranian nationals rather than
Pakistanis.

The tone of Revolutionary Guards chief
Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari’s statement holding Pakistan, alongside the
United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel, responsible for the recent attack
reflected Iranian concern with what may flow from Prince Mohammed’s visit.

Initially, Iran had limited itself to
blaming external powers rather than Pakistan for the attack.

Indications suggesting that Prince
Mohammed’s visit to Pakistan may have been about more than economic cooperation
were severalfold and involved gestures that despite Pakistani denials would not
have come without a price tag.

The statement was implicitly referring to Indian efforts to
get the UN Security Council to designate Masood Azhar as a global terrorist.
Mr. Azhar is the head of Jaish-e-Mohammed, the group that has claimed
responsibility for the Kashmir attack.

Pakistan agreed to General Sharif’s
appointment as commander despite its refusal to join the coalition in the
belief that the 2017 Saudi request that he be seconded put the South Asian
nation between a rock and hard place.

Pakistani military officials argued at
the time that while the appointment would irritate Iran, refusal of the Saudi
request would expose Pakistan to criticism from many more in the Islamic world.

“We want to improve ties with Iran.
Saudi Arabia is a friend who has always stood by us in difficult times. Our aim
will be that whatever we can do for conciliation in the Middle East, we want to
play that role. Those tensions, that fight, between neighbours, we will try to
bring them together,” Mr. Khan said.

The geopolitical fallout, if any, of
what for now amounts to symbolism will likely only be evident in the weeks and
months to come.

Beyond Iran’s toughening stance
towards Pakistan in the wake of the attack on its Revolutionary Guards,
tell-tale signs would be a closer Pakistani alignment with the Saud-led
anti-terrorism coalition and the degree to which Pakistan-based militant launch
attacks inside Iran.

Middle East scholar Michael Stephens,
who heads the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) operation in Qatar
suggested that reading the tea leaves may best be done with a grain of salt.

“Geography is what it is, and Pakistan
will always have to maintain a relationship with Iran (economic and security)
regardless of how much cash it gets from Riyadh… Pakistan will do what’s
best for Pakistan, and not Riyadh,
the US or Tehran. Telling everyone what they want to hear is kinda how this all
works,” Mr. Stephens said.