NOAA
SAYS EL NIÑO’s DEPARTURE LEAVES SOME WESTERN DROUGHT THIS
SPRING, AND FLOODING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST POSSIBLE

March
20, 2003 — NOAA forecasters say
they are increasingly confident that drought
will linger in areas of the West and floods could possibly threaten portions
of the South and East during the spring of 2003. (Click NOAA image
for larger view of NOAA seasonal drought outlook through June 2003. Click
here for high resolution version, which is a very large file. Please
credit “NOAA.”) [Audio sound bites below.]

At a news
conference held today in Washington, D.C., NOAA officials said El
Niño’s influence on the nation’s fall and winter
precipitation patterns was not enough to alleviate the multi-year drought
and serious water supply shortages over much of the Western United States
(including parts of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, Nevada, Utah,
Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, Arizona, and New Mexico). However, winter
precipitation from El Niño helped wipe out abnormally dry conditions
in the East.

“We
can say goodbye to El Niño in the next month or so,” said
retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad
C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and
atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Depending on where you live
or play, you’re either thankful for the drought-busting Eastern
rains and snow, or disappointed by the lack of Western snow pack.”
(Click NOAA image for larger view of El Niño weather pattern
for 2002 to 2003. Click here
for high resolution version, which is a very large file. Please credit
“NOAA.”)

Lautenbacher
said 2002-2003 winter weather has set the stage for the spring outlook.
“The winter weather pattern has given us the tale of two regions.
With snow pack levels below normal, the multi-year drought in the West
will linger through spring. The East reversed its fortunes going from
widespread drought to many areas that are much wetter than normal. In
the Northeast, snow melt and river ice will increase the chances of flooding
for more than a month.” (Click NOAA image for larger view
of spring 2003 flood risk. Click
here for high resolution version, which is a very large file. Please
credit “NOAA.”)

For the contiguous
U.S., on average the past winter was not unusual as it was the 31st warmest
and 58th driest out of the last 109 years, but average conditions were
not the norm.

For the winter
season as a whole, temperatures averaged well above the long-term average
from the West Coast into the Upper Midwest, and Alaska had its second
warmest year on record (since 1918). In contrast, 27 states in the eastern
half of the United States had significantly cooler than average winter
temperatures.

“During
this past winter, drought persisted in many of the same areas of the Western
U.S. that have experienced drought for three or more years, with many
areas still requiring unusually heavy precipitation to end the long-term
drought by summer’s end,” said Tom Karl, director of the NOAA
National Climatic Data Center. This contrasted sharply with areas
to the east and south that experienced significantly wetter than average
conditions with some record snowfalls. (Click NOAA image for larger
view of U.S. Drought Monitor for March 18, 2003. Click
here for high resolution version, which is a very large file. Please
credit “NOAA.”)

Spring
OutlookThe
U.S. spring outlook for April through June calls for above normal temperatures
in the western third of the nation and in Alaska. Southern Texas may be
a bit cooler than normal. The chances for above-normal rainfall are increased
in the far Northwest, parts of the Southwest and southern Texas.

“The
wet fall and winter from eastern Texas to the Ohio Valley and eastward
to the Atlantic has already resulted in some flooding this year, and we
expect flooding to remain a threat across the area,” said John Jones,
deputy assistant administrator of the NOAA National Weather Service.

In the Northeast,
cold conditions and heavy winter snows set the stage for possible spring
flooding. Thick ice on rivers in eastern New York and northern New England
could lead to ice jam flooding. If heavy rains combine with rapid snow
melt, serious flooding could be possible.

The NOAA
National Weather Service reported, because the Midwest and northern
Plains received considerably less snow than normal, the current focus
is on the possibility of drought rather than normal spring snow melt flooding.
However, NOAA warns spring rains on frozen soils could still lead to flash
flooding. “We urge people not to become complacent. Even during
droughts, flooding—deadly flooding—is possible,” said
Jones.

As a result
of precipitation shortfalls from the West into the Midwest, drought and
water supply problems loom. In many areas in the West, reservoirs have
been drawn down as a result of three or more consecutive dry years. A
considerable portion of snow melt from a generally meager mountain snow
pack will be absorbed by parched soils, further reducing inflow into reservoirs.
Barring unusually heavy precipitation in the next few months, weather
and climate forecasters at NOAA predict bleak water supply conditions
will affect broad areas in the West this summer.

“With
El Niño’s influence fading, the major factor this spring
is the long term, multi-year water shortages in parts of the West,”
said Jones. “The wet season will end in the West in the next several
weeks. Afterward, significant widespread precipitation is unlikely until
the summer monsoon season or when precipitation typically resumes in the
fall of 2003.”

NOAA advises
spring weather requires the public to stay abreast of the day-to-day weather
fluctuations by listening to NOAA Weather Radio and commercial radio and
television broadcasts for advisories, watches and warnings to take proper
precautions. Spring weather can change quickly—from drought to flash
floods.

Meteorological
spring began on March 1. The vernal equinox is March 21.

The 2003
spring outlook is a consolidated effort of the NOAA National Weather Service
and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center. The National Weather Service
(including the Climate Prediction
Center and the Hydrologic Services Program) is the primary source
of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its
territories.

The NOAA
National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood
warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and
property and enhance the national economy. The NOAA National Climatic
Data Center is the nation's primary source of space-based meteorological
and climate data.

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