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1 III Which are the largest city economies in the world and how might this change by? This article updates an article published in our March 7 UK Economic Outlook giving estimates for and projections to of the size of the largest city economies in the world. The updated analysis and illustrative projections of GDP for different cities show how the GDP rankings of cities might change by taking into account the impact of the current economic downturn and the impact of a potential de-globalisation scenario. Figure. Global urban and rural population trends and UN projections Population (billions) 7 Urban Rural ings of global cities by population are common, but while population statistics are important, they are only part of the story: leading cities such as, New York, and are major economies in their own right, of a size greater than medium-sized national economies such as Sweden and Switzerland. Cities are also centres of innovation, creativity and culture, as well as focal points for government, finance, business services and corporate headquarters in their respective countries (and sometimes also their regions in the case of financial centres like in Europe, or political centres like Brussels in the EU). However, data are much less readily available on the overall size of city economies in terms of their total output, particularly outside the OECD countries. This analysis fills this gap and provides a significantly different picture from rankings by population, with the advanced economy cities ranking much higher by GDP than by population due to their higher average income levels. Our analysis also allows us to consider how far fastgrowing cities in emerging market economies like, and Brazil could challenge the dominance of current leading global cities such as,, and by. The discussion below is organised as follows: 7 Section III. provides a long-term historic perspective on population trends for the largest global cities Section III. introduces our approach and methodology; Section III. presents and discusses our estimates of the largest city economies in ; Section III. presents and discusses our illustrative projections for how these rankings might change between and, with a particular focus on the rise of emerging economy cities; Section III. highlights the uncertainties surrounding our projections and discusses some of the key factors underlying the relative growth rates of city economies; Section III. considers the potential impact of an alternative de-globalisation scenario on the growth rates of city economies; and Section III.7 summarises and draws conclusions from the analysis. A more detailed description of the data and methodology used in the analysis to estimate the size of city economies as measured by GDP is provided in Annex A. This is followed by a full listing of our rankings of the Source: UN largest city economies by GDP in and in Annex B. III. Long-term historic trends in city populations Urbanisation has been one of the major global themes of the past century and all the indications are that major cities will provide an increasing focus for global economic activity over the course of this century. In, there were only cities in the world with more than million inhabitants, mostly in the advanced economies; now there are over such cities according to United Nations (UN) estimates, around three-quarters of which are in low and middle-income countries. In, the rural population of the world was around twice the urban population, but by the UN estimates that the urban population will be greater and by it projects a total global urban population of around billion compared to just over billion in rural areas (see Figure.). Systematic rankings of urban agglomeration populations have been produced by the UN for the period since. Table. shows the top urban agglomerations by population in,, 7 and to illustrate how these rankings have evolved over time and how they are projected to change by. Notable points are that: The present article was written by John Hawksworth, Thomas Hoehn and Anmol Tiwari. It forms part of PricewaterhouseCoopers wider research and consultancy programme on city economies. Some data are available for selected OECD and non-oecd cities on relative wages and costs of living, but no systematic global data source is readily available for GDP per capita at a city level as far as we are aware. PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

2 and remained the two largest urban agglomerations between and 7 (although swapping places after around ), although Mexico and Mumbai had caught up with by 7. By is expected to be in 7th place on a par with Kolkata; was still the third largest city in, but has slid down the rankings progressively since then to only th in 7 (with its population remaining broadly unchanged between these dates); Manchester and Birmingham were in the top cities in but would not rank in the top by population now ; Other leading European cities seeing sharp declines in their population rankings between and 7 include (th to th), (th to th) and Berlin (from th to well outside the top ), a trend that will continue to when is expected to rank 7th and rd; Conversely, major risers between and 7 include Mumbai (th to th), Sao Paulo (th to th) and new entrants like Jakarta (rd in 7), Dhaka (th), Karachi (th) and Lagos (nd), all of which were well outside the top in ; Notably, however, the major Chinese cities have not seen such rapid population rises as those in other leading emerging markets; both (th to 7th) and (th to th), while increasing their populations significantly in absolute terms, have slid down the rankings between and 7, particularly in recent decades due to s one child policy. is expected to continue to slide, dropping to th, but should climb back to th; Overall, the aggregate population of the top cities is expected to rise from million in 7 to million in (+7%). Population, however, is only one of the factors determining the size of city economies as measured by GDP: the other being average income per capita. Table. Trends in top urban agglomerations by population: - ing in Kolkata.. Osaka/Kobe.. Berlin. Philadelphia.. St Petersburg 7. Mexico. Mumbai. Detroit. Boston. Cairo. Manchester. Tianjin. Sao Paulo. Birmingham. Shenyang 7. Rome. Milan. San Francisco. Barcelona Pop. (m) ing in Mexico Sao Paulo Mumbai Osaka-Kobe Kolkata Seoul Cairo Manila Jakarta Karachi Dhaka Tehran Bangkok Lima Tianjin Hong Kong Chennai Pop. (m) ing in 7 Mexico Mumbai São Paulo Kolkata Dhaka Karachi Cairo Osaka-Kobe Manila Seoul Lagos Jakarta Guangzhou Lima Tehran Kinshasa Bogotá Table. Data sources for city GDP estimates and projections Variable Urban area population GDP per capita for OECD urban areas GDP per capita for non-oecd countries Pop. (m) Projected ing in Mumbai Dhaka São Paulo Mexico Kolkata Karachi Kinshasa Lagos Cairo Manila Jakarta Guangzhou Osaka-Kobe Lahore Shenzhen Chennai Tehran Seoul Projected Pop. (m) Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Urbanization Prospects: The 7 Revision. Sources for estimates Sources for projections Source: Population Division of the UN projections to Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Urbanization Prospects: The 7 Revision; extrapolated from 7 to using average annual growth rate OECD Competitive Cities report () estimates for, extrapolated forward to using OECD data for - and IMF for -, plus data on the city-national differential where available from individual national statistical offices Direct estimates from national statistical offices where available (e.g., Brazil) or adjusted World Bank national data to reflect typical ratios of GDP per capita in major cities relative to national averages based on comparators with similar characteristics (e.g. cities of similar population in countries with similar income levels). Asian Development Bank data used for some Asian cities National projections for GDP per capita growth from PwC World in model to, with adjustments to reflect historic differentials between city and national growth where OECD data available (for countries in - period). Further adjustments made to short term growth rates due to recent global economic downturn National projections for GDP per capita growth from PwC World in model to for countries where available, with other countries being based on closest available comparators, with some judgemental adjustments to reflect particular national characteristics where appropriate. GDP per capita growth assumed to be in line with national average for non-oecd countries due to lack of city-level data. Further adjustments made to short term growth rates due to recent global economic downturn Although, as shown in Annex B, Manchester and Birmingham still rank in the top cities by GDP in. PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

3 III. Data and methodology used to derive city GDP estimates and projections Our primary estimates of city output are based on combining UN population estimates for with estimates of income per capita, as summarised in Table.. For cities from OECD countries, we were able to base our city-level GDP per capita estimates on data from the OECD s Competitive Cities report () and then projected these forward to. For non-oecd cities, data are not readily available from a single source. In some cases GDP per capita estimates at city level were available from national sources, but in many cases we were only able to make approximate estimates based on plausible ratios of city to national GDP per capita. As such, the urban agglomeration GDP estimates should only be taken as broadly indicative of relative economic size for the non-oecd countries. Nonetheless, they provide a much better indication of relative economic size than just looking at population data. As Table. also shows, our illustrative projections for city GDP in combine UN population projections with our own estimates of national income per capita growth trends from our previous World in report. We have incorporated the short term and long term impacts of the recent global economic downturn on the income per capita growth rates (this has a particularly large downward effect in -). As illustrated for selected countries in Figure., these projections show consistently higher income per capita growth in the emerging economies, particularly and. III. Urban economy rankings in (and changes since ) We have used the methodology described above to produce GDP estimates for our candidate urban agglomerations in 7. As noted above, it should be recognised that these estimates are reliant on the definitions adopted by the UN, and the GDP per capita estimates are subject to significant margins of error for the non-oecd cities. They should, however, be at least broadly accurate in Figure. Projected real GDP per capita growth by country: - % real GDP per capita growth Table. Top urban agglomerations by estimated GDP in using UN population estimates and definitions GDP rank in (with rank in brackets) () () () () () () 7 (7) () () () () () () () () () 7 () () (7) () () () () () () () 7 () () (7) () Russia Turkey Mexico Brazil S. Korea Osaka/Kobe Mexico Philadelphia Sao Paulo** Washington DC Boston Dallas/Fort Worth *** Hong Kong Atlanta San Francisco/Oakland Houston Miami Seoul Toronto Detroit Seattle Madrid Singapore Sydney Mumbai (Bombay)**** ** Spain Italy Japan Estimated GDP in ($bn at PPPs)* France Germany Australia Population (millions) Canada Components of estimated GDP GDP per capita ($k at PPPs) * population estimates were calculated by taking the average annual population growth rate between and and applying it to the UN s 7 population estimates. ** New data found from national data sources on GDP per capita in all major Brazilian Cities including Sao Paulo and. *** New data found from World Bank on GDP per capita in (and St. Petersburg in full rankings). **** New data found from national data sources on GDP per capita in Mumbai (as well as, Bangalore and Kolkata in full rankings). Source: UN for population estimates; PricewaterhouseCoopers GDP estimates drawing on data from UN, World Bank, OECD and national sources. Notes above indicate where GDP per capita estimates were revised significantly since our 7 study due to new and better data sources being used. UK US Source: PwC World in model A more detailed explanation of our methodology can be found in Annex A. Earlier UN city population projections were criticised, with good reason as events turned out, by Paul Bairoch ( Employment and large cities: problems and outlook, International Labour Review, vol, No., Sept-Oct ). However, the UN s projection methodology has been revised and updated since then, notably to account for the tendency of the largest cities to grow more slowly than smaller cities as diseconomies of scale set in for mega-cities. J. Hawksworth & G. Cookson. The World in : Beyond the BRICs: A broader look at emerging market growth prospects? PricewaterhouseCoopers, March. Available to download from world-/pdf/world brics.pdf 7 A full listing of GDP estimates for the cities covered by our analysis is provided in Annex B. PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

4 order of magnitude terms and, as noted above, taking account of income per capita certainly produces a much better indication of the relative size of urban economies than just looking at population data. Subject to these caveats, Table. shows our estimates of the size of the top urban agglomerations (on UN definitions) in, ranked by GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) exchange rates using the methodology described above and in Annex A. The reason for using PPPs rather than market exchange rates is to correct for the currently significant differences in price levels between emerging market and advanced economies, reflecting the relatively low cost of non-traded goods and services in emerging economies (this is expected to be less of an issue by ). It is interesting to note that, in total, our estimates suggest that the largest cities accounted for around % of global in, with the top cities alone accounting for around % of world GDP in that year. This emphasises the concentration of global economic activity in the world s largest cities. The most striking point to note is that, while of the top urban areas by population in were from emerging/ developing economies (see Table. above), only 7 of these emerging economy cities (Mexico, Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires,,, Mumbai and ) were in the top according to our GDP estimates. This reflects the much higher GDP per capita levels in the major developed economy cities than in the major emerging market cities, as illustrated for a selection of cases in Figure.. Indeed, based on OECD and IMF estimates, of the top cities ranked by GDP per capita at PPPs in were from the US. Looking at the top of the GDP rankings in Table., has retained the top ranking we found for and is narrowly ahead of New York, with both having economies worth nearly $. trillion in (broadly similar to national economies such as Spain and Mexico). is still in clear third place with, and vying for the next three places (each of which has an Figure. Estimated GDP per capita in in selected major cities $k at PPPs in 7 Osaka estimated GDP significantly higher than national economies such as South Africa, Belgium, Sweden and Switzerland as illustrated in Table.). The most significant changes in top rankings since have been climbing ahead of to th place and Sao Paulo jumping into th place. The latter is due to new data being found on income per capita for all Brazilian cities. Aside from and, only two other European cities (Madrid and ) make the top. LA Buenos Aires Mexico Sao Paulo Rio de Janeiro Mumbai Source: PwC estimates based on OECD, World Bank and national data sources Table. Comparison of estimated GDP of largest urban agglomerations with GDP of selected national economies in Country/Urban Agglomeration Russia UK Mexico Spain Canada Australia Poland South Africa Osaka/Kobe Colombia Mexico Philadelphia Sao Paulo Belgium Sweden Switzerland Estimated GDP in ($bn at PPPs) Source: World Bank for national GDP estimates; PwC for urban agglomeration GDP estimates using UN definitions (as in Table. above). These estimates are from different sources and so will not be fully consistent, but should be broadly comparable in order of magnitude terms Mexico and Sao Paulo are the only emerging economy cities in the top when ranked by GDP but Buenos Aires is not far behind in th place and in th. and Mumbai have jumped into the top with their strong growth between and. has significantly jumped from th to th since due to new data being available from the World Bank on the percentage share of in total Russian GDP. The full list in Annex B shows that there are also a number This is despite using PPP rather than market exchange rates in order to avoid underestimating the scale of the outputs of the emerging economy cities. New data for GDP per capita of Brazilian cities was taken from the following source: PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

5 of fast-growing emerging economy cities just outside the top, including (th), (th), Manila (th), Cairo (nd), Guangzhou (th), and Santiago (rd). Table. shows the top cities in in their respective country income brackets, using the World Bank s classification of countries by income. We can see that Mexico tops the list of cities in the group of Upper-Middle Income Countries followed closely by Sao Paulo. tops the list of cities in Lower-Middle Income Countries followed by Mumbai. Dhaka tops the Low Income Country category followed by Ho Chi Min. In the next section, we consider how far these and other emerging economy cities might rise up the rankings by. Table. Top urban agglomerations in different country income brackets by estimated GDP in (using UN population estimates and definitions) Top Cities in Upper-Middle Income Countries GDP in ($bn at PPPs) Mexico Sao Paulo Top Cities in Lower-Middle Income Countries GDP in ($bn at PPPs) Mumbai Manila Top Cities in Low Income Countries Dhaka Ho Chi Min Hanoi Yangon Chittagong 7 GDP in ($bn at PPPs) 7 Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers GDP estimates drawing on data from UN, World Bank, OECD and national sources III. Projected urban economy growth rates and GDP rankings in ings by economic size in Table. shows our projections of the top urban economies in measured by (in US dollars), with the rankings in shown in the first column for comparison. The full GDP rankings for both years are given in Table. in Annex B. These are based on UN definitions and population projections. The largest five urban economies (on UN definitions) remain the same as in, although overtakes to move into th place. As might be expected, however, the dominant trend is for emerging economy cities to rise up the rankings: Sao Paulo climbs from th to th, Mexico rises from th to 7th and from th to th. The largest climbers within the top are (leaping into the top from th to th) and Mumbai (racing from th to th). (th to th), (th to 7th), (7th to th), Guangzhou (th to st) and Cairo (nd to th) are all notable new entries in the top. Lower down the list (see Annex), notable climbers between and include Manila (th to rd), Kolkata (st to 7th), Bangkok (th to th), Jakarta Table. Top urban agglomerations by estimated GDP in using UN population definitions and projections GDP rank ( in brackets) () () () () () () 7 () () () () () () () () () (7) 7 () () (7) () () () (7) () () () 7 () () () () Sao Paulo Mexico Mumbai (Bombay) Philadelphia Hong Kong Washington DC Osaka/Kobe Boston Dallas/Fort Worth Guangzhou Seoul Atlanta San Francisco/Oakland Houston Miami Toronto Cairo Estimated GDP in ($bn at PPPs) Population in (millions) Average real GDP growth (% pa: -).7%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.7%.7%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.7%.%.%.% Rising by more than places Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers projections For the purpose of this calculation, cities are classified as emerging market cities by the countries in which they are based and how the countries are classified by the World Bank according to income levels (see go.worldbank.org/d7snbyu for further information) PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

6 (7th to th), Tianjin (th to 7th), Dhaka (77th to th), Bangalore (th to th), and Bogota (th to th). Perhaps equally predictably, the main fallers within the top are the cities of old Europe like Rome (rd to rd), Milan (th to th), Vienna (th to 7th) and Berlin (th to th). Within the UK, Birmingham (7nd to th) and Manchester (7th to nd) slip down the rankings but remain in the top, while Leeds is projected to fall from nd to th. This is not because these cities are stagnating all three are expected to see their economies grow by around. - % per annum in real terms over this period; but they cannot hope to keep pace with the fast-growing city economies of the emerging world. The theme of the rise of emerging markets also comes out from an analysis of the number of cities in the top / by country in and, as set out in Table.7. We can see that, although there is not that much turnover in the rankings (with just new entries in the top and in the top ), the emerging economies are the clear gainers. in particular has of its cities projected to rise into the top between and, while has new entries in the top (the other four are from Egypt, Vietnam, Pakistan and Nigeria). European cities are again the main losers here: as well as Leeds, those projected to fall out of the top include Hamburg, Stockholm, Lyon, Turin, Munich and Helsinki. Another way to illustrate this point is to note that the total estimated GDP of the emerging market cities we considered account for around % of the total GDP in of all the cities. By, however, the projected share of these same cities rises to around % of the total (although it is should be noted that some of these cities will have risen out of the emerging markets category in terms of their income levels by ). ings by economic growth in - An even clearer way to see the shifts in global economic weight towards the emerging markets is to look at rankings Table.7 Number of cities in global top / by country (GDP rankings using UN population definitions and projections) Countries US Japan Germany UK France Italy Canada Total: G7 Other advanced economies Total: advanced Brazil Russia Mexico Indonesia Turkey Total: E7 Other emerging economies Total: emerging economies All countries by projected economic growth between and. As Table. shows, there are no advanced economies represented in the top fastest growing cities, as compared to from Vietnam (with Hanoi and Ho Chi Min topping the table), from (with Surat in 7th), and from (including Changchun and Guangzhou coming rd and th respectively). Indeed, the highest advanced economy cities in the full growth rankings are Dublin in 77th, Hong Kong in st place and Singapore in th. Auckland (th), Prague (th), Lisbon (7th) and Seoul (st) also score relatively well in the developed economy city growth league. (th) also just makes the top and, as shown in Figure., it ranks higher on growth than the other advanced economy mega-cities such as Los Angeles (st), (th), (st) and (th). Manchester, Leeds and Birmingham are further down the list than, however, reflecting the relatively stronger performance of Number of cities in in: Global top Global top Number of cities in in: Global top Global top 7 7 Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates and projections (see Annex B for full listings) since the mid-s, which we assume to persist (albeit to a lesser degree) in the future. Although the recent global financial crisis severely impacted s financial sector in the short run, we believe that will continue to benefit in the long run from its status as one of the leading global business and financial service centres. Figure. provides some further insight on key trends by comparing projected cumulative economic growth rates over the period - for the eight largest emerging economy cities and the eight largest advanced economy cities (ranked by estimated GDP in in each case). (7%), Mumbai (%) and (%) are projected to achieve particularly impressive economic growth here relative to their fellow mega-cities, but the other five emerging economy cities are also projected to rack up cumulative GDP growth of around 7-%, compared to an average of only around % for the eight advanced economy mega-cities. PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

7 III. Key uncertainties and factors underlying relative city growth rates It should be recognised, however, that even though we believe that our general conclusion on the rise of the emerging market economies and cities should be robust, any such growth rankings can only be illustrative for individual cities. Given the objective of providing a comprehensive global ranking, our analysis is necessarily somewhat mechanical and relies both on the UN population projections, which are subject to widening margins of error over time as with any such long-term projections, and on the assumption that our earlier work on national GDP per capita projections provides a good basis for city-level projections. We also need to acknowledge that economic size as measured by GDP may not fully reflect the level of well-being in a city given it ignores other relevant socio-economic factors (including income inequality, the value of home production, the quality and quantity of leisure time and environmental indicators such as air and water pollution). In practice, some cities may do significantly better that their national economies and some may lag behind. Equally, not all of the emerging economies may fulfil the potential identified in our World in report, whether due to political and/or macroeconomic instability, infrastructure constraints, energy supply problems or environmental crises. Avoiding these pitfalls, both at national and local level, will be critical to the longterm economic success of these cities. Climate change, for example, may pose significant long-term challenge, particularly to coastal cities in developing economies that may be relatively exposed to more frequent and intense severe weather events such as typhoons and hurricanes, as well as a potential long-term rise in sea levels due to global warming. Some preliminary analysis we have carried out suggests that emerging market coastal cities like Dhaka, Cairo, Karachi, Lagos, Tianjin and Porto Alegre could be particularly exposed to any early adverse effects from climate change. There are huge uncertainties here as to the scale and timing of any such effects and the extent to which mitigating action could be taking in time to avoid serious consequences. Table. Top urban agglomerations by projected average real GDP growth in - (using UN population definitions and projections) Growth rank Hanoi Ho Chi Min Changchun Guangzhou Addis Ababa Xian Surat Jaipur Lucknow Chengdu Shenyang Kanpur Tianjin Pune Chongqing Ahmedabad Kabul Bangalore Hyderabad Dar es Salaam Chennai (Madras) Lagos Nairobi Kolkata (Calcutta) Mumbai (Bombay) Chittagong Kinshasha It should also be noted that economic size, although significant, is not a panacea. As noted by Joel Kotkin, Singapore has established itself as a global financial centre to a greater extent Country Vietnam Vietnam Ethiopia Afghanistan Tanzania Nigeria Kenya Bangladesh Democratic Republic of Congo Average real GDP growth in - (% per annum) 7.% 7.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers projections using UN population definitions Figure. Cumulative projected GDP growth to for mega-cities % cumulative real GDP growth: - Mumbai Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Mexico Buenos Aires Top emerging economy and Top advanced economy cities Philadelphia Osaka than larger Asian cities like Bangkok, Manila and Jakarta. Similarly, Dubai has been more successful than Cairo. The same author notes that Mexico, the largest emerging economy city in the LA Source: PwC analysis In addition to the earlier research by Bairoch () cited above, this point is also explored in some detail in a more recent paper by Barry Cohen ( Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts, World Development, vol, no, pp -, ). See J. Kotkin, The : A Global History (Pheonix:, ). Similar arguments on the potential disbenefits of greater city size beyond some threshold were set out by Bairoch (, op. cit). PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

8 world based on our analysis, is burdened by problems of crime, congestion and pollution that make smaller but faster-growing cities like Monterrey and Guadalajara more attractive to entrepreneurs and ambitious workers. Within the developed world, it seems clear that the most successful cities will be those that have comparative advantages in intangible business, financial and consumer services that are not so easily emulated by the rising stars of, or Brazil. Prominent examples include the continued pre-eminence of, New York and in global financial services, or of in the media and entertainment sector, but it also applies to smaller but possibly faster growing cities that specialise in new technologies where distance is not an issue and the most talented individuals are looking for a better quality of life than the mega-cities can offer. The comparatively rapid projected growth rates (by developed country standards) of cities such as Atlanta, Dublin, Stockholm and Seattle reflect these kinds of more qualitative factors. More formally, our projections show a negative correlation between initial economic size (GDP) and subsequent projected growth, but this is very much driven by lower initial GDP per capita in emerging economies (see Figure., which shows a significant but nonlinear relationship). After correcting for differences in initial GDP per capita, regression analysis does not indicate any statistically significant relationship between initial population levels and subsequent projected GDP growth. These are only projections, of course, so this is a feature of our analysis that may or may not be borne out by actual experience. Without time series of historic GDP for a sufficient range of cities we are unfortunately not able to test these relationships using actual data. Figure. Projected urban area GDP growth vs initial GDP per capita Average annual GDP growth (% pa: -) GDP per capita in ($k PPPs) Table. Impact of de-globalisation scenario on projected GDP rankings of selected cities in (using UN definitions and population estimates) Mumbai (Bombay) Manila Cairo Guangzhou Bangkok Jakarta Dhaka Karachi Tianjin Chennai (Madras) Porto Alegre Ho Chi Min Ahmedabad Alexandria Hanoi Lahore Surat Lagos Chengdu Casablanca Changchun Chittagong Lucknow New rank De-globalisation scenario results Change in rank* Source: PwC analysis Percentage change in projected GDP -.% -.% -.7% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.7% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% *Relative to baseline projections for Source: Illustrative PwC projection It is also important to note that, while cities may compete for inward investment in some respects, they are also important trading partners for each other to the extent that they specialise in different areas of economic activity. A larger global market can still be of great potential benefit to those old Europe cities even if the latter are likely to slide down the relative GDP rankings. III. Possible impact of de-globalisation scenario on city growth rates To explore further the uncertainties surrounding our projections, we have considered one particular alternative scenario which could impact the growth of some cities significantly: de-globalisation. In this scenario an assumed rise in global protectionism, notably by the US and the EU, leads to generally slower world economic growth with particularly severe adverse effects on emerging economies, which typically rely heavily on crossborder trade and investment flows to realise their growth potential (as shown by the experience of the Asian tigers In fact, cities with larger populations have, after allowing for differences in initial GDP per capita levels, slightly higher projected growth rates in our model, but not to a statistically significant degree (t-statistic =.). PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November 7

9 since 7, since or since the early s). In this setting, the growths of emerging economy cities will be affected by not only their income group classification but also how heavily they rely on trade for growth in the future. In order to determine how this deglobalisation scenario might affect specific cities, we first categorised the cities using the World Bank s classification of their countries by income. We then applied a de-globalisation growth factor from onwards. If a city fell under the low income bracket, its growth rates were assumed to be reduced to a larger extent compared to a city in the high income bracket that could rely more on mature domestic markets to sustain a reasonable level of growth (although still lower than in our baseline projections). These income-related growth adjustments are necessarily judgemental, but are broadly in line with what would be expected based on the academic literature on the effect of cross-border trade and investment on economic growth, at least in directional terms. The results of this scenario are summarised in Table. for selected cities. The biggest drop in rankings was by Dhaka from th to 7th; its projected GDP in fell by almost % relative to our baseline scenario. Growth in Dhaka has been especially strong in the finance, manufacturing, telecommunications and tourism sectors, all of which would be potentially vulnerable in a de-globalisation scenario (e.g. due to less outsourcing of factories and call centres to low cost locations such as Dhaka). Many other emerging economy cities would also be likely to be relatively badly hit in a de-globalisation scenario. and Mumbai, for example, could see their projected GDP in reduced by just under %. Karachi could fall in the rankings from 7th to th place, with its projected GDP in also decreasing by close to % compared to our baseline projections. Ho Chi Min and Hanoi could both see their projected GDP in fall by more than %. Other notable cities that might fall in the rankings in our de-globalisation scenario could include Guangzhou (st to th), Cairo (th to th), Tianjin (7th to nd), Chennai (th to th) and Ahmedabad (77th to st). Of course, these results are only illustrative, but they do indicate the importance of maintaining free flows of trade and investment if emerging economy cities are to realise their full potential. Nonetheless, even in our de-globalisation scenario, there is still a tendency for emerging economy cities to rise up our GDP rankings between and, even if not to the same extent as in our baseline projections. III.7 Summary and conclusions Cities tend to be ranked in size according to their populations, but to assess the relative size of their economies we also need to take account of their average income per capita levels. Doing this in a consistent and comprehensive way at a global level is challenging, but we have pieced together data from a number of reputable sources (e.g. the OECD, the UN and the World Bank as well as national statistical agencies) to produce a ranking by GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) exchange rates of the largest urban economies in the world in (updating our earlier estimates from ). The precise rankings are dependent on the definitions and data sources adopted, but looking at GDP gives a much better indication of relative economic size than just looking at population. Our analysis re-emphasises the economic significance of the world s largest cities. The top such cities ranked by GDP accounted, according to our estimates, for around % of world GDP in and this share rises to around % for the top cities. At present, the mega-cities of the major developed economies continue to lead the global GDP rankings, with the top six in being,,,, and (using UN definitions). Only seven emerging economy cities are currently in the top (Mexico, Sao Paulo,,,, Mumbai and Rio de Janeiro), but our illustrative projections suggest that they will all move up the GDP rankings by and be joined in the top by fast-growing cities such as,, Guangzhou and Cairo. Tellingly, we expect the largest emerging market cities to grow at a faster rate (between %-7% pa) than the cities in advanced economies (ca %) leading to cumulative growth of up to almost % for the period under investigation -. This is in contrast to advanced economy cities whose cumulative growth will be only around %. According to our illustrative projections, is projected to grow somewhat faster than leading rivals such as,, and, moving up from th place in to th place by. However, other old Europe cities like Milan, Madrid and Rome seem likely to slide down the rankings as the emerging mega-city economies of Asia and Latin America rise. Smaller UK cities such as Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds, while continuing to grow at reasonable rates in absolute terms, will also tend to fall down the relative GDP rankings. Our projections for individual cities are subject to many uncertainties, but our conclusion that the emerging economy cities as a group should increase their relative weight in the global economy seems likely to be robust even in our de-globalisation scenario. But the cities of the established developed economies should see this as more of an opportunity than a threat as it gives opportunities for them to specialise further in those areas (e.g. business and financial services, entertainment and media, fashion, cultural tourism) where they have potential comparative advantages in fast-growing global markets. Competition between cities, as between nations, should not be seen as a zero sum game. PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

10 Annex A: Data and methodology used to derive city GDP estimates and projections We describe below how we have gone about producing GDP estimates and projections for the leading cities in the world. The first question to be addressed in any study of this kind is: how should you define a city? While national boundaries are clear and change relatively rarely, city definitions differ significantly across countries and evolve over time as the city expands and absorbs surrounding neighbourhoods. For the purposes of this study we have generally adopted UN definitions of urban agglomerations (for short, these are sometimes also referred to below as urban economies or just as cities where the context makes this appropriate), but it should be recognised that the UN population estimates rely on information provided by national statistical agencies and are therefore not based on fully standardised definitions across countries. To explore the effect of adopting alternative definitions, we also considered the impact on our GDP estimates of using an alternative set of urban agglomeration population estimates compiled by Professor Thomas Brinkhoff (see his website at for details) that also provide global coverage and have been used in a number of previous studies. However, 7 of the top cities were the same using the Brinkhoff data as in our analysis using the UN urban population data (from its 7 World Urbanization Prospects report). Given these broadly comparable results, the UN data were selected as our primary source because they have the advantage of providing both a time series of historic data by city/ urban area back to and population projections to for individual cities/ urban areas. We also used UN national population projections in deriving our national GDP per capita projections, so it was more consistent to use UN data here than the Brinkhoff estimates, which include some historic estimates back to 7 but not forward projections. In the majority of cases where they differ, it appears that the UN adopts narrower definitions than Brinkhoff, which tends to make the UN estimates correspond more closely to what might generally be considered to be a city, as opposed to a cluster of closely-related cities or towns. But there is no right answer here, so it is important to recognise that our GDP rankings are sensitive to the particular definitions used. To establish our list of candidate urban agglomerations to be ranked in the global top by economic size in either or, we first included all urban agglomerations (using UN definitions) with a population of more than million in ( areas in total). We then added: Other urban agglomerations projected to be in the top by population in using UN projections; and Other OECD urban agglomerations with populations over million, as covered by the OECD report on Competitive Cities (). This procedure gave a total of candidate urban agglomerations for further analysis. Based on a review of our results, we are confident that this should cover all urban agglomerations (on UN definitions) likely to rank in the top by GDP in, and probably also in (although the latter is obviously subject to more uncertainty). Table. in Annex B shows results for all of the cities, although it should be noted that we cannot be sure that these are the largest city economies given that our aim was just to identify the top. We chose to use GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) exchange rates as our measure of economic size. The reason for using PPPs rather than market exchange rates is to correct for differences in price levels between economies, which are due in particular to the relatively low cost of non-traded goods and services in emerging economies. By using PPPs, we can compare the volume of goods and services produced in each urban agglomeration more accurately. Using current market exchange rates instead would tend to understate the scale of the outputs of goods and services produced by emerging economy cities, particularly estimates of GDP in. By we can expect the increase in productivity in emerging markets to raise both GDP per capita and the real exchange rate, thus closing at least partially the gap between GDP estimates based on PPP exchange rates and market exchange rates. As outlined in Section III. above, our primary estimates of city output are based on combining UN population estimates for with estimates of income per capita, The population estimates for are interpolated by using the 7 UN population estimates and applying the average annual population growth rate between 7 and. For the OECD countries, we began with the city-level GDP per capita estimates for in the OECD s Competitive Cities report () and then projected these forward to based on national GDP per capita growth over this period plus an adjustment to reflect the observed city-national GDP per capita growth differential in - for OECD cities for which these historic data were available (in other cases, unadjusted national growth data were used). The estimates were further extrapolated to using national income per capita growth rates from the IMF World Economic Outlook database. For non-oecd cities, data are not readily available from a single source. In some cases (e.g., Brazil) GDP per capita estimates at city level were available from national sources, but in many cases we were only able to make approximate estimates based on plausible ratios of city to national GDP per capita (the latter sourced from the World Bank) based on comparisons with cities at similar income levels for which direct income per capita estimates were available 7. As such, the urban agglomeration GDP estimates should only be taken as The UN defines an urban agglomeration s population as follows: The de facto population contained within the contours of a contiguous territory inhabited at urban density levels without regard to administrative boundaries. It usually incorporates the population in a city or town plus that in the sub-urban areas lying outside of but being adjacent to the city boundaries (http://esa.un.org/unup/index.asp?panel=) The other alternative we considered was to use the OECD definition of metropolitan areas from their recent report on Competitive Cities (). But, unlike the UN data and the Brinkhoff estimates, this would not have covered non-oecd countries and also did not provide historic and projected population estimates on a consistent basis. 7 Typically, these ratios are in the range from. to, with higher values tending to be observed in the lowest income countries where urban-rural income differentials are particularly large. PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

11 broadly indicative of relative economic size for the non-oecd countries. Nonetheless, they provide a much better indication of relative economic size than just looking at population data. For most of the non-oecd cities, we extrapolated the GDP per capita estimates to using national income per capita growth rates from IMF. However, for some cities such as Bogota,, Mumbai and Sao Paulo, new data were found on income per capita and used to calculate GDP city estimates. As Table. in the main text shows, our illustrative projections for city GDP in combine UN population projections with our own estimates of national income per capita growth trends from our previous World in report (see earlier footnote for reference). We then incorporated the short term and long term impacts of the recent global economic downturn on the income per capita growth rates (this has a particularly large downward effect in -). As illustrated for selected countries in Figure. above, these projections show consistently higher income per capita growth in the emerging economies, particularly and. It is notable here that US GDP per capita growth is projected to be slower than that in the other major economies. This is due to the assumption in our model that other countries will tend to catch up gradually with initially higher economy-wide labour productivity levels in the US. It should be noted, however, that after taking account of its higher projected population growth (including immigration), overall US GDP growth is nonetheless projected to be higher than in any of the other G countries. For the OECD urban agglomerations where historic income growth trends were available, we assumed that differences between national and urban GDP per capita growth rates in - were half those in -. This was based on the assumption that historic growth differentials would be gradually eroded over time, since otherwise there would be implausibly rapid or slow growth of the major cities relative to their economies as a whole. For all the other urban agglomerations, including non-oecd cities, we assumed (in the absence of other data) that their income per capita growth would be in line with national average projections. This is, in fact, in line with the average historic trend for the OECD cities for which data are available. In practice, of course, income per capita growth rates will vary more than this at city level, but we have no readily available data on which to predict such variations. It should be noted here that, particularly for smaller economies, the largest cities may play a dominant role in their overall national economies, so one would not expect a large divergence between income growth in these cities and the average for their economies as a whole. PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

12 Annex B: Full GDP rankings for and Table. below sets out in full our urban agglomeration GDP rankings and estimates/projections for and (using UN population estimates and urban agglomeration definitions). The table includes all candidate cities that we have considered, although it should be noted that we are not claiming that these are the largest city economies in the world, just that these should encompass the top ranked by GDP in both and, which was our primary focus here. The final two columns show projected average real GDP growth rates between and and a ranking by these growth rates. Both of these latter two columns refer to the cities ranked by projected GDP in rather than in (i.e. the list of cities in the fifth column rather than the second column in Table.). Table. Full listing of urban agglomeration GDP rankings in and illustrative projection to (using UN definitions and population estimates) estimated Est. GDP in ($bn at PPPs) projected Est. GDP in ($bn at PPPs) Real GDP growth rate (% pa: -) GDP growth ranking (out of ) 7.7%.% 7.% 7.% 7.% 7 Sao Paulo 7.% 7 Osaka/Kobe 7 7 Mexico 7.% Mexico 7.% Philadelphia Sao Paulo.% 7 Washington DC 7 Mumbai (Bombay).% Boston.% 7 Philadelphia.7% Dallas/Fort Worth Hong Kong.7% Washington DC.% Hong Kong Osaka/Kobe.% 7 Atlanta 7 San Francisco/Oakland Boston.% Houston 7.% Miami Dallas/Fort Worth.% 7 Seoul Guangzhou.% Toronto Seoul.% Detroit Atlanta.% Seattle 7.% San Francisco/Oakland.% Madrid Houston.% 7 Singapore 7 Miami.7% Sydney 7.% Mumbai (Bombay) Toronto.% Cairo.% Phoenix Detroit 7.% Minneapolis Madrid.% San Diego Metro Manila.7% Seattle.% PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November

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