KONCEPCJA SPOSOBU PROGNOZOWANIA CEN PSZENICY W POLSCE

Article refers to a method of forecasting wheat prices in Poland, which was suggested in the literature. Thisidea is based on empirical observations. Authors observed that there is a relationship between global prices ofwheat and prices in Poland. The authors of this article have identified a process ARIMA (0, 1, 1) as a stochasticmodel to describe the global prices of wheat. They also found a correlation coefficients, which confirmed therelationship between the global and Polish prices. They forecasted Polish wheat prices in the second quarterof 2014 and the ex-post errors. All calculations were performed using GRETL.