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I think we have every reason to believe that Ubuntu is the most popular destop Linux out there:
-It's searched the most in Google.
-It's talked about the most in Twitter, blogs and news sites.
-Ubuntu.org is by far the most visited Linux distribution site (looks like it has a lot more visits than all other combined) according to Alexa.
-It has the biggest forums (8 times more members than both openSUSE and Fedora forums combined).
-It's has actual hardware parters and computers with Ubuntu preinstalled can be bough from Dell and some Chinese vendors.
-Canonical reports ~20 000 000 Ubuntu installs.