Phantom's Fearless Forecast

September 03, 2001 by Steel Phantom

The consensus
seems to be that the Stillers will face a more difficult schedule in 2001 than
was the case in 2000.� Let�s do the
numbers:

2000

Teams

# Games

Record/Venue

Play-off teams

Ravens, Titans,
Raiders, NYG, and Eagles.�

7

2-5

4 home, 1-3

3 road, 1-2

Contenders

Jets

1

1-0, road

Mediocre

Jags, Skins

3

2-1

1-1@ home

1-0 on the
road

Bottom-feeders

Browns,
Bengals, and Bolts

5

4-1

2-0 @ home

2-1 road

The 2000 Stillers
were 6-2 against teams that were .500 or below and 2-5 against playoff worthy
foes. They were 4-4 at 3RS and 5-3 on the road.� Now, consider the 2001 schedule; note that in the table below,
teams are awarded their 2001 slots from their 2000 record.

2001 (based
on 2000 performance)

Teams

# Games

Venue

Play-off teams

Ravens,
Titans, Bucs, and Vikings

6

3 @ home, 3
road.

Contenders

Jets, Lions

2

2@ home

Mediocre

Chiefs, Bills,
and Jags

4

1@ home, 3
road.

Bottom-feeders

Browns,
Bengals

4

2 @ home, 2
road.

If the Stillers
were an elite type team, we might expect a 3-3 split against the playoff group
and, say, an 8-2 mark against the rest.�
That would be 11-5 and this certainly has to be the outside limit for
optimism.

�If the Stillers are �contenders� (defined as
9-7 types though, IMO, most of the 2000 9-7 teams were more pretender than
contender) then we might expect 2-4 against the playoff elite, 1-1 against the
other contenders, and, say, 6-2 against the rest.� There is your 9-7 but that�s not going to be good enough.� Probably, 10-6 makes the playoffs; assuming
2-4 against the playoff worthy, the required mark remains 8-2 against the rest.� Maybe, facing the �contenders� at home, the
Stillers take both.� However, 3 of the 4
games against the mid-level Bills, Chiefs and Jags are on the road.� Assume a 2-2 split there and the Stillers
would have to sweep the Bengals and Browns to get in (2-4, 2-0, 2-2, 4-0 =
10-6).

The betting
public has the under at 7 �.� 2-4, 1-1,
2-2 and 2-2 respectively would make the under nut.� It is worth noting that the Stillers have been a poor home team
for the past two seasons; maybe, the �home dog� tag ends with the inauguration
of Heinz Field but, really, who knows?�
In tabular form, some options may be:

Stillers 11-5

10-6

9-7

7-9

Playoff worthy

3-3

2-4

2-4

2-4

Contenders

2-0 @ home

2-0 @ home

1-1

1-1

Mediocre

2-2, 3 away

2-2

3-1

2-2

Bottom-dwellers

4-0

4-0

3-1

2-2

Naturally, there
are many other possibilities.� One will
be explored in the game-by-game fantasy to follow.� But first, consider the following points:

On offense, the
Stillers have moved to retain the status quo.�
Bettis and
Hartings were the (2) big O-side off-season signings; these men enfranchise the
power back/athletic OC tradition established here.� That�s fine; there are teams on the schedule who will be beaten
down by this attack.� Then again, there
are teams that will neutralize it.� The
problem on offense has been that the power game has received no supplement from
any passing attack and, while all hopes for improvement there rest with better
play from Stew, Spike and Toy as Mularkey, Clements and Jackson guide that, the
preseason is an insufficient basis to project this development.� Given that, it is anyone�s guess whether the
Stiller O-side will be as erratic as in years past.� If so, the Stillers may win when they can run but will go down
hard when they need to get airborne.� In
contrast, if the Stillers can pass effectively, well, anything is possible for
this team.

On the
D-side, the Stillers remain system-challenged in mounting a pass rush.� The
OLB are the sack-kings here; the Stillers haven�t had a D-lineman with
double-digit sacks since Keith Willis bowed out.� Bell may provide a necessary 3rd rush threat out of
the LB corps but elsewhere around the league, the premium pass defenders are DL
who can bring pressure and DB who can cover.��
Broadly, LB figure in a secondary role against the pass but here the LB
are the premium Front 7 performers.�
IMO, the Stillers are strong in the base but will have problems
countering multi-WR sets.�� That could
happen a lot; this season, both Cin-City and Cleveland figure to feature (3) WR
packages as their base, or co-base, set.�
So long as the Stillers �passing down� package removes Holmes, sits
Bell, inserts Jones as the dime backer and lines up Porter and Gildon on the
LOS, the advantage will rest with their opponents.� Further, teams with a pass receiving RB, get a pressure reprieve
when the Stillers are forced to drop one of their LB in coverage.� As constituted, the Stillers must keep as
many LB on the field as possible; if the B&G can develop a nickel pack with
Porter and Bell as the LB, some (5) DB and (4) rushers then, IMO, they�ll have
a chance.� However, since innovation has
not been a feature of the Cowher Era, I expect the Stillers will have a lot of
trouble countering diversified passing attacks, at least early on

Turning to the
prognostication:

At
Jacksonville, Sept. 9:� Under Coach Cowher, the Stillers are 4-5
in their openers.� However, it is worth noting
that they�ve started against Dallas (twice), SF and Baltimore when those teams
were Super Bowl worthy.� Of course, they
also lost their opener at Jaxville in �96 when that team was far from elite.� The Jags are crippled now; McCardell figures
to be out, Jimmy Smith may not be at full strength, OT Boselli and Weigart have
knee issues and their D-side is pocked with elderly or unproven players.�� My crystal ball shows that the Stillers
will get out early but, when the heat kicks in, Fred Taylor will run wild.� Lacking any trace of Front 7 depth, the
Stillers D-side wilts in the 4th quarter to blow a slim lead.� Gloom gathers here as heat-induced asthma
sidelines the Bus but the Stillers score late behind Amoz and Fu to pull it
out.

Outlook: W, 1 -0

Cleveland,
Sept 16:� Stillers take the opener at Heinz
Field.� The Browns are putting together
a stout DL but this will take some time to gel.� Further, the Browns new FA O-linemen aren�t yet ready to play
effectively.� The Browns multi-WR set
gives Pittsburgh problems but without a big time RB, the Brownies can�t take
full advantage.� Surfing a wave of
emotion, the Stillers win convincingly.��������������������������������������������������������

Outlook: W, 2-0

At Buffalo,
Sept. 30:� The Bills figure to be sub-par this
season.� Generally, the Stillers have
played poorly following a bye week but IMO Coaches Lewis and Mularkey are
better teachers than were their predecessors.�
Turnovers and rust do factor as the Stillers start sluggishly on the
O-side, generally failing to protect their QB against the Bills new 46.� While the Stillers do little on offense, the
Bills do even less.� The D-side
dominates and scores; Rob Johnson goes down again and again.� Cowher trumps Donahoe, 23-10. ��������������������������������������

Outlook: W, 3-0

Cincinnati,
Oct.7:� The overly confident Stillers are
unprepared for the Bengals.� Cin-City
fields Darnay Scott, Peter Warrick and Chad Johnson in their base set but lack
a QB to get them the ball.� However,
Dillon breaks free against the dime package and, while Holmes and Bell look on,
the Stillers suffer a catastrophic defeat.������

Outlook: L, 3-1

At Kansas
City, Oct. 14:� Coach Cowher, in an agony of rage and
shame following the Bengal loss, whips the B&G through a grueling week of
practice.� The Stillers drag a number of
self-induced injuries into KC; there, when Vermeil spreads the field, the
Stillers find no answer for TE Tony Gonzales who teams with Trent Green to lead
KC to a convincing victory.�����������

Outlook: L, 3-2

At Tampa Bay,
Oct. 21: The emotionally
drained Stillers are over matched and crushed by the Super Bowl bound Bucs.��������������������

Outlook: L, 3-3

Tennessee,
Oct. 29:� The Stillers rise up to defend their
field on MNF; with a huge effort, they win this highly physical contest.

Outlook:W, 4-3

Baltimore,
Nov. 4:� Bruised and battered by the Titans and
with a short week to prepare, the Stillers are steam-rolled by the defending
champs.���������������������

Outlook:
L, 4-4

At Cleveland,
Nov.11:� Browns establish their Front 4 featuring Courtney
Brown and Gerard Warren; the Bus is stuffed but Stewart picks up the
slack.� Spike scores his first NFL TD
grabbing a late EZ fade over 5�-8� CB Daylon McCutcheon.� The weary Stillers stick with their dime
pack against Tim Coach and the Browns dink attack giving plenty of yards, but
few points.� ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� Outlook:
W, 5-4

Jacksonville,
Nov. 18:� Jags O-line gels; Coughlin follows the
(3) WR lead established elsewhere, Taylor starts left and cuts back again and
again and again; in what amounts to a repeat of game #4, the Stillers are
defeated by an inferior opponent.�������������������������

Outlook: L, 5-5

At Tennessee,
Nov. 25:� A savage beating in Music City.� The running game never gets untracked and
the Titan twin Pro Bowl DE, Kearse and Carter, harass Stewart repeatedly with
Rolle capitalizing.� The D-side plays
tough but wears down late.�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������

Outlook: L, 5-6

Minnesota,
Dec.2: �With Kordell in a Music City daze, Tommy
Maddox gets his first start and functions effectively, if not brilliantly.� The Stillers go back to basics and
control the clock with a brutal inside running attack.� The Bus, well rested after getting just a
few carries in Nashville, packs it about 40 times.� The Vikings score (3) TD in 18 minutes TOP but this isn�t nearly
enough.

New York
Jets, Dec. 9:� Assuming Curtis Martin makes it through
another season, the Jets are contenders.�
C. Martin is exactly the kind of multi-dimensional back that creates
match-up problems here.� Purportedly,
the Jets intend to lead the league in rushing attempts this year and so they
drafted LaMont Jordan to lighten Martin�s load.� Herman Edwards has toughened this team but with Jason Ferguson
down for the year and an aging LB corps, the Jet D-side fails to deal with the Stillers
grind-it-out attack.� The Stillers take
a TKO at Heinz-World.

At Baltimore,
Dec. 16:� The Ravens will need this game.� The Stillers O-side is overpowered in a foul
weather encounter when their running game is, as usual, stuffed by the
Poe-birds.� Lacking a quality RB, the
Ravens can�t move it either but win the turnover battle and take a sleet-sodden
5-0 lead.� Late in the 4th,
Stewart rolls away from pressure, eludes Lewis and Boulware to sprint 76 yards
for the games only TD.� The Stillers
botch the snap to blow the extra point but still win 6-5.��

Detroit, Dec.
23:� The dome-bound Lions can�t get it done outdoors.� Their West Coast offense freezes solid and,
when Detroit trys to muscle up with James �Little Man� Stewart packing it
behind behemoth OL McDougle and Gibson, LB Porter, Holmes and Bell out-quick
and strip down the Motor City�s last best hope.� The Stillers grind down the aging Lions Front 7 that fields (3)
D-linemen on the wrong side of 30.� ���������������������

At
Cincinnati, Dec. 30:� Foul weather grounds the Bengal
3-wide.� Stillers win convincingly as
Bell and Porter combine for (23) tackles and (5) sacks.� Amoz gets his first 100- yard game; the Bus
rolls for about 80 in the 1st half.�
Coach Cowher points to a competitive improvement over the last (5) games
to suggest that his team is, clearly, on the rise.