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The stability of ecosystems and, therefore, the services that they provide, will become increasingly affected by climate change due to species-specific responses and, thus, the disruption of established biotic interactions. The changing range of host species has major implications for range expansions of species and places additional pressures on those of conservation importance.

Update planned for November 2012

Key messages

The stability of ecosystems and, therefore, the services that they provide, will become increasingly affected by climate change due to species-specific responses and, thus, the disruption of established biotic interactions.

The changing range of host species has major implications for range expansions of species and places additional pressures on those of conservation importance.

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Current distribution range of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta)

Note:The map shows the current distribution range of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta

Past trends

Many butterfly species are moving northward, but often with overall declines in abundance and range size (Warren et al., 2001). Biotic interactions are important factors in explaining the distributions of butterflies, because they are often host-specific. For example, many parts of Europe are climatically suitable for the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) (Figure 1) and the species may even be able to migrate quickly in response to climate change. However, an important constraint to range expansion is the presence of its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta) (Schweiger et al., in press). Likewise, the current distribution of the clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) is explained not only by climate suitability, but also by the presence of its Corydalis host plant (Araujo and Luoto, 2007).Climate change has also had a disruptive effect on Scottish seabird communities and their food webs. During 2004 and 2005, major population crashes have been observed. In Shetland, over 1 000 guillemot nests and 24 000 nests of the Arctic tern were almost entirely deserted, and on the nearby island of Foula, the world's largest colony of great skuas saw only a few living chicks. The cause was a drastic reduction in the populations of sandeel, their principal food source. The disappearance of the sandeel was due, in turn, to the northward movement of cold-water plankton on which these fish feed. The plankton's range had shifted because the waters between Britain and Scandinavia had become too warm for it to survive there. Since 1984, some seabird species around Scotland have decreased by 60-70 % (CEH, 2005).

Projections

The response to climate change of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta) is likely to lead to a reduction in range overlap and, thus, an uncertain future for this specialist butterfly. Played out on a larger scale, these trophic mismatches benefit generalists at the expense of specialists, putting additional pressures on the capacity of ecosystems to provide certain services and on species of conservation importance (McKinney and Lockwood, 1999; Reid et al., 2005; Biesmeijer et al., 2006).

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

Current potential niche space of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta)

Relationship between projected distribution space of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta) for 2080

Units

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Suitable climate is an important factor in determining the distribution of species and the composition and stability of ecosystems. For many animal species, a major constraint on successful colonization of new areas is the absence of ecologically-linked host plants (Schweiger et al., in press). Advancements in spring activity may result in asynchrony between food sources and breeding, causing starvation of young that emerge too early, and the disruption of predator-prey relationships. This so-called trophic mismatch has been demonstrated for various animal groups, including birds (Both et al., 2006), and in some cases is causing crashes or explosions in populations. Additionally, extreme events such as floods, drought and fire can disrupt ecosystems, preventing growth of key plant species and limiting nesting, breeding and feeding opportunities for animals.

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2009 the European Commission presented a White Paper on the framework for adaptation policies and measures to reduce the European Union's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The aim is to increase the resilience to climate change of health, property and the productive functions of land, inter alia by improving the management of water resources and ecosystems. More knowledge is needed on climate impact and vulnerability but a considerable amount of information and research already exists which can be shared better through a proposed Clearing House Mechanism. The White Paper stresses the need to mainstream adaptation into existing and new EU policies. A number of Member States have already taken action and several have prepared national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing actions to enhance and finance adaptation in developing countries as part of a new post-2012 global climate agreement expected in Copenhagen (Dec. 2009). For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm