Resilience of the UK transport infrastructure network can be expressed as the imbalance between the physical
condition of the network and the transport demands the network experiences. Forecasting changes of resilience in the
long term (e.g. the 2050s) requires a structured, multi-disciplinary approach. The Engineering and Physical Sciences
Research Council funded Futurenet project developed a model architecture to formalise such an approach and this
paper addresses one component: the assessment of the influence of physical processes on asset condition. This requires
the development of new, integrated physical-based models that respond to detailed inputs of forecast weather events
(e.g. UK Climate Projections 2009). The results are plotted onto the infrastructure network for visualisation. Subsequent
combination with user demand will then enable determination of network resilience at a range of spatial scales. The
project has highlighted the need for better datasets, more sophisticated physical-based models and further analyses of
complex feedbacks and interactions between physical processes and also with user behaviour.

Sponsor:

The authors are grateful to the Highways Agency and Network
Rail for use of their data and to the EPSRC-funded (EP/
G060770/1) Futurenet team for their continuing support. Tom
Dijkstra and David Gunn publish with the permission of the
Executive Director of BGS (NERC).