Cancer Forecast: Why More People Will Die, Even As Death Rates Fall

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Cancer death rates will continue to decline in the United States
through 2020, including death rates from some of the most common
cancers in both men and women, a new study says.

However, because the population is growing and getting older, the
total number of cancer deaths will increase during that same
period, the researchers said. The increases will be most
pronounced among black and white men and black women, they said.

In the study, the researchers used data on cancer deaths from
1975 through 2009, and population projections through 2020, to
predict
rates of death from cancer and total cancer deaths in the
U.S. through 2020.

Death rates for all cancers combined were predicted to decrease
about 15 percent, from 179 deaths for every 100,000 people in the
U.S. in 2007, to 151 deaths per 100,000 people in 2020.

In terms of specific cancers, death rates were predicted to
decline 21 percent for lung cancer, 19 percent for female
breast cancer, 12 percent for cervical and uterus cancer, 26
percent for prostate cancer and 22 percent for colon cancer.

However, total deaths from cancer were predicted to increase 13
percent among white men, 15 percent among black men, and 17
percent among black women between 2007 and 2020. Cancer deaths
among white women were predicted to stabilize, increasing just
4.4 percent during this period, the researchers said.

"While the overall risk of dying from cancer is declining, the
impact of underlying demographic changes in the population will
increase the burden of cancer on society and health care
systems," the researchers, from the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, wrote in the July issue of the journal Preventing
Chronic Disease.

The main reason for the decline in cancer deaths among white
women was due to decreases in deaths from breast and
colon cancer, which could reflect the success of screening
efforts and treatments for these cancers among this population,
the researchers said.

In contrast, among black women, breast cancer deaths were
predicted to increase 15 percent, and colon cancer deaths were
predicted to increase 10 percent, in part due to demographic
changes, the report said.

"Increased efforts to promote cancer prevention and improve
survival are needed to counter the impact of a growing and aging
population on the cancer burden," the researchers said.