When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent William Verhelle, chief executive officer, First American Equipment Finance, a City National Bank company, says, “The economy continues to improve. First American is seeing increased equipment acquisition activity among the large corporate borrowers we serve. We are optimistic that lower energy costs, if they remain at current low levels, will drive increased U.S. economic activity in the second half of 2015. We are more optimistic about the U.S. economy today than we have been at any time during the past six years.”

February 2015 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 66.3, a slight increase from the January index of 66.1.

When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 30.3 percent of executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, up from 23.3 percent in January. 63.6 percent of respondents believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 76.7 percent in January. 6.1 percent believe business conditions will worsen, up from none who believed so the previous month.

42.4 percent of survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, up from 20 percent in January. 51.5 percent believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, down from 80 percent the previous month. 6.1 percent believe demand will decline, up from none in January.

27.3 percent of executives expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, down from 33.3 percent in January. 72.7 percent of survey respondents indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, up from 66.7 percent in January. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from the previous month.

When asked, 39.4 percent of the executives reported they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, a decrease from 50 percent in January. 57.6 percent expect no change in headcount over the next four months, up from 50 percent last month. 3 percent expect to hire fewer employees, up from none who expected fewer in January.

6.1 percent of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” up from 3 percent last month. 90.9 percent of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” down from 97 percent in January. 3 percent rate it as “poor,” up from none the previous month.

45.4 percent of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, an increase from 43.3 percent who believed so in January. 54.6 percent of survey respondents indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, down from 56.7 percent in January. None believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, unchanged from last month.

In February, 48.5 percent of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, a decrease from 50 percent in January. 51.5 percent believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, an increase from 50 percent last month. None believe there will be a decrease in spending, unchanged from last month.

Independent, Small Ticket
“Demand remains moderate and competition is strong. We remain bullish for 2015 as we expand channels and products. We are planning on muted GDP so we are focused on making our own opportunities versus waiting for the general economy to expand.” David Schaefer, CEO, Mintaka Financial LLC

Bank, Small Ticket
“Things just seem to be better. Gas prices and unemployment are headed in the right direction. I am concerned about the negative effect of lower gas prices, such as, higher fail rates of energy loans and energy stock value.” Kenneth Collins, CEO, Susquehanna Commercial Finance Inc.

Bank, Middle Ticket
“I see continued strength in the transportation segment of the economy. That segment of our business will remain strong. The opportunities in oil and gas have substantially declined. I expect the decline to depress the volume of business during 2015. 2015 will be a mixed year with some industries doing well and others in decline.” Elaine Temple, president, BancorpSouth Equipment Finance

Bank, Middle Ticket
“All signs have been pointing to a ‘break-out’ year in 2015. However, investment in capital assets continues to be sporadic. Companies continue to be cautious in expanding their production capacity. Let’s hope the economists are correct in their predictions for 2015.” Thomas Jaschik, president, BB&T Equipment Finance

Why an MCI-EFI?
Confidence in the U.S. economy and the capital markets is a critical driver to the equipment finance industry. Throughout history, when confidence increases, consumers and businesses are more apt to acquire more consumer goods, equipment and durables, and invest at prevailing prices. When confidence decreases, spending and risk-taking tend to fall. Investors are said to be confident when the news about the future is good and stock prices are rising.

Who participates in the MCI-EFI?
The respondents are comprised of a wide cross section of industry executives, including large-ticket, middle-market and small-ticket banks, independents and captive equipment finance companies. The MCI-EFI uses the same pool of 50 organization leaders to respond monthly to ensure the survey’s integrity. Because the same organizations provide the data from month to month, the results constitute a consistent barometer of the industry’s confidence.

How is the MCI-EFI designed?
The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:

1. Current business conditions

2. Expected product demand during the next four months

3. Access to capital during the next four months

4. Future employment conditions

5. Evaluation of the current U.S. economy

6. U.S. economic conditions during the next six months

7. Business development spending expectations

8. Open-ended question for comments

How may I access the MCI-EFI?
Survey results are posted on the Foundation website, included in the Foundation Forecast newsletter and included in press releases. Survey respondent demographics and additional information about the MCI are also available at the link above.

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January/February 2018

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