So I'm going for simplicity: doubling it. 10 years, $500 million, with an opt-out in there

10:08

**friendly notice for everyone** this chat will be shutting down earlier than usual, because I'm having a car delivered. It's less exciting than it sounds, but it will take me away from my computer. The car is on its way

Log

10:09

Let's say you're still a Mariners fan. Maybe you are. Are you pleased with what Dipoto has done so far?

Jeff Sullivan

10:09

Overall, more pleased than displeased. I like what he said about how you shouldn't evaluate moves individually -- it's all part of a big picture. Good thing to keep in mind for every team.

10:09

Still don't love the Brad Miller trade, but some of that falls on the previous regime

TF Fredrik

10:10

How much do you look at and factor in a pitchers soft & hard contact allowed? Obviously they are newer stats and we don't exactly know what predictive value they have, so whats the level to use them at this point?

Jeff Sullivan

10:10

I look at them, but I don't put a lot of stock in them unless someone has numbers at an extreme. It all regresses, but there is some hint of ability in there

Hypothetical GM questions: Would you try to replace Duda at 1B? I can see Cuddyer and possibly d'Arnaud platooning with him if he stays. Would you try to package Duda in some kind of trade if you were Alderson?

Jeff Sullivan

10:11

No harm in exploring the market and thinking about Cuddyer at 1B but it's not like that opens up an opportunity in the outfield what with Conforto/Granderson so there's no need to force anything

10:12

Wouldn't hurt to get in touch with the Orioles to see what they might do

Kimball

10:12

Of just about anyone, I would think Greinke would understand the diminishing marginal utility of each additional million, and would thus weigh other factors more heavily. In what ways do you think analytic *player* could evaluate soft factors?

Jeff Sullivan

10:13

I think Greinke is familiar with the setting he's been in in LA, but he also knows SF has been highly successful and Bochy is good at commanding a cohesive clubhouse. Beyond that I don't think there's much of anything else; he also knows this is business, and it makes business sense to get the best contract you can. It's not just about his own deal. It's also about helping set a precedent for future players

Springleton

10:16

If Astros ask for Chapman, what are Reds asking for?

Jeff Sullivan

10:16

Velasquez would be interesting.

10:16

Appel would be a *fascinating* centerpiece. Alternatively, could see the Reds try to add to Preston Tucker

The Big Dipper

10:16

The pants look stupid but the Jerseys and tops are cool

Jeff Sullivan

10:17

To be honest I used to like the purple tops so I just have horrible taste in everything

10:17

Those tripping-balls old Phoenix Coyotes uniforms? Loved 'em. Go weird or go home

10:17

You're Arizona -- you're not going to win people over or fool anyone by going MLB-classic

Cardinal Sinner

10:19

Is it a foregone conclusion that Heyward returns to STL now or will they still try to spend their money on a SP?

Jeff Sullivan

10:19

Heyward is more likely with Price off the board but by no means a guarantee. The OF market is still developing

nottingham

10:21

what do you expect out of maikel franco next season? he showed some adrain beltre(offensively) style promise before he got hurt

Jeff Sullivan

10:21

I liked what I saw from his season a lot. Addressed several questions and he's still just 23(!). I'm looking for a 3-WAR season

BK

10:22

In re: Pelfrey; Is Happ that much more valuable? Or recognition that Happ is left handed and never really been injured?

Jeff Sullivan

10:23

Left-handed, less injury history, more encouraging 2015 finish. Pelfrey allowed a .348 wOBA in the second half; Happ was at .280

Kimball

10:23

Other than the unique circumstances of the 2012 Red Sox, do you think it's really possible for a team to truly "rebuild" with a 2 year target, as the Braves seem to want to do?

Jeff Sullivan

10:23

That's too quick. A team with, say, the Phillies' resources might be able to pull it off, but you should go in thinking 4-5 years. 2 is a few standard deviations fast

EC

10:25

If Scherzer were a free agent this offseason, how would he compare to Grienke?

Jeff Sullivan

10:25

I think he'd get something close to the Price deal. So, his own deal, with less money deferred

Pete Rose

10:25

Was I funny or awkward on Fox? Do I have a future on TV?

Jeff Sullivan

10:25

I didn't watch you but I hate you

10:26

Which I think goes along with a lot of the regular Fox programming decisions?

tim turner

10:26

I don't really understand the cubs trying to move soler when they have castro, baez, and gleyber Torres all playing the same position and they don't have a soler replacement

Jeff Sullivan

10:26

I don't think they're trying to move Soler -- I think they're open to moving Soler. They can make multiple moves at multiple positions, and there are good alternative outfielders available if Soler goes away

10:27

Might be time to capitalize on his promise now before he's officially a disappointment

Doug

10:27

Do you think Dombrowski still has something up his sleeve?

Jeff Sullivan

10:27

I don't think he's much for secrets or surprises. If there's something obvious, he'll do it

10:27

He might move someone from his pitching depth now. But I'm coming around on the Dombrowski approach of "why not just try to win right now?"