Europe braces for extremist gains in elections

/ AP

British National Party chairman Nick Griffen is seen leaflet dropping as he campaigns ahead of this weeks European Elections, Manchester, England, Monday, June 1, 2009. Europe hasn't faced a scenario like it in years _ extremist and fringe parties fueled with enough voter discontent to make real electoral gains and mire the European Union in even more confusion. (AP Photo/Paul Thomas).

British National Party chairman Nick Griffen is seen leaflet dropping as he campaigns ahead of this weeks European Elections, Manchester, England, Monday, June 1, 2009. Europe hasn't faced a scenario like it in years _ extremist and fringe parties fueled with enough voter discontent to make real electoral gains and mire the European Union in even more confusion. (AP Photo/Paul Thomas). (/ AP)

PAISLEY DODDS, The Associated Press

In some of Manchester's bleakest neighborhoods where unemployment is rife and anxiety about an immigration influx is palpable, one of Prime Minister Gordon Brown's worst fears is unfolding before Thursday's European Union elections.

The British National Party, which doesn't allow nonwhites as members and is against membership in the European Union, is gaining ground in former Labour Party strongholds that once threw their support behind Brown and his predecessor, Tony Blair.

Widespread voter discontent across Europe is expected to give extremist and fringe groups like the BNP gains in the European assembly elections, victories that could mire the EU in even more confusion.

"I think the BNP could do a lot better for the country," Chris Rowlinson, 38, said Tuesday. "It would be sort of like the positive things what Winston Churchill did for the British people."

The recession, corruption, a culture of excess – these issues and others have angered many of the 27-nation bloc's 375 million voters. Turnout is expected to be low for the European parliament election on Thursday through Saturday. If people vote at all, many will cast protest ballots against mainstream parties.

Britain has felt the biggest voter backlash after an expense scandal tarred all three main political parties. Data leaked to a newspaper showed that lawmakers submitted expense claims for everything from pornography to chandeliers and moats at country estates – all while people were losing jobs, homes or pensions.

In northern cities like Manchester, where gritty housing projects stand near abandoned textile warehouses and recycling plants, voters have turned against Brown over fears that jobs will be lost to foreign workers or immigrants. The Manchester area is also home to one of Britain's largest Muslim communities.

Similarly, many affluent voters and former Conservative strongholds angry over the expense scandal are turning toward lesser-known parties. The UK Independence Party – which wants Britain to break free from the EU – is expected to win more seats than the Labour Party for the first time.

"I'll probably be voting for the BNP because this is the forgotten city," said Louise Allen, 31, as throngs of BNP activists descended on her Manchester neighborhood.

Across the continent, smaller parties are expected to benefit from similar voter discontent and divisions within larger parties.

In the Netherlands, the Freedom Party led by anti-Islamic lawmaker Geert Wilders, is vying against the Christian Democrats and Labor to become the country's biggest party in the EU's parliament. Wilders was barred from entering Britain after he made a film in which he portrayed the Prophet Muhammad as a suicide bomber. Similarly, Austria's own Freedom Party has launched an anti-immigration, anti-Israel campaign.

The election is important because the European assembly's power could grow with the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, a pact that essentially replaced the failed EU constitution. Lawmakers, together with EU governments, have the right to vote on or amend two-thirds of all laws that take effect in EU states. Issues range from immigration to online privacy and cell-phone roaming charges.

The 2004 election saw fringe and extreme parties take over 50 seats in the 785-seat assembly, now 736 seats under new treaty rules. If more fringe and extremist parties win seats this time, there could be greater division and international ramifications.

The United States has long clashed with the European Union over such issues as export subsidies, climate change, Hezbollah and Israel.

Iain Begg, a professor at the London School of Economics' European Institute, said that while increased turnout for fringe parties might well give them more seats in parliament, it was unlikely to give them more overall power.

"The three bigger parties can maintain business as usual," Begg said, noting that groups like France's far-right Front National have long had a presence in the European Parliament.

An EU survey of 28,000 EU citizens released last week showed only 43 percent of those polled would "definitely vote." That's down from 62 percent who actually turned out to vote in the first such elections in 1979, and below the previous record low turnout of 45.5 percent in 2004.

"This parliament could end up being one of the most powerful in European history," said Antonio Missiroli, an analyst at the European Policy Center in Brussels.

Some worry the assembly will eventually have greater power over local issues – much like the U.S. federal government's power over states.

"With the EU, we've gotten the government Hitler wanted. They have the central bank, central power, and we (Britain) can't move or do anything without their say so anymore," said Nick Linksey, 52, a car insurance salesman.

Seats are awarded under a system of proportional representation. Germany has one of the largest populations.

The election itself is somewhat paradoxical – many parties vying for seats loathe the very assembly for which they're campaigning.

Polls suggest the center-right European People's Party will return as the largest group, followed by the Socialists and centrist Liberal Democrats. But even small gains by fringe groups could send a worrying message to leaders such as Gordon Brown and David Cameron, head of Britain's Conservative Party.

Britain must hold a general election by mid-2010.

UKIP ran third in 2004, getting 16.1 percent of the vote; in the 2005 U.K. elections it won 2.3 percent of the vote and no seats. Unlike the BNP, it is seen by many as an acceptable anti-EU party of protest.