October 5, 2016 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

Dry weather continues here, while folks along the coast of the Southeast are preparing for Hurricane Matthew. It’s going to be relatively quiet here, so we’ll spend a lot of time on Matthew in today’s Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast. Welcome!

Here at home, it’s been a nice day, with temperatures in the mid 70’s around mid-afternoon in the Tri-Cities. Up in the mountains, they’re in the mid 60’s, a nice cool day. To our south around Knoxville, they’ve arrived at the low 80’s already. A cold front will bring temperatures down, and maybe kick Matthew out to sea in the coming days. Here’s the outlook:

Tonight-Mostly clear, but patchy fog is possible late. Lows near 50.

Thursday-Mostly sunny. High 80.

Thursday night-Partly cloudy, low 54.

Friday-Partly to mostly cloudy, a small chance of rain in the afternoon. High 75.

Saturday-Partly cloudy, a few scattered showers. High 73.

Sunday-Sunny and cooler, high 68.

Monday-Mostly sunny. Highs near 70.

Our weather here in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia, and parts of Western North Carolina will likely stay dry for most of the next five days. In the mountains, winds may pick up if Matthew gets too close. A cold front will move through Saturday morning, so starting Friday evening we could see some rain showers.

After that, we’ll have more fall-like conditions to end the weekend, and as we start next work week. Looks to be just below average for this time of year.

Here’s the latest look at Hurricane Matthew from the National Hurricane Center…click the map for a bigger image.

The big change in the track since this time yesterday, reflects a model forecast that started yesterday morning. The European computer model started showing Matthew turning to the right into the Atlantic yesterday, and the NHC grabbed onto that idea and have phased it into the forecast. Recently, the GFS model (the best of the American weather prediction systems) also got on board with that curve.

In the coming days, we’ll see Matthew go from the Bahamas, where it is right now, toward the east coast of Florida. Some computers say landfall might happen near Orlando or Daytona, others keep the center of circulation offshore. Either way, the storm will be nasty for those folks, bringing onshore and from the sky lots and lots of water. Flooding will definitely be a concern in Florida, and probably Georgia and South Carolina this weekend.

The cold front that moves through our area Saturday may have a role in spinning Matthew away from the coast earlier than expected. If that’s the case, it should spare folks from Norfolk and to the north from the worst of the storm. There’s a long way to go for that one, and most of the hurricane models still see Matthew going up the coast.

Either way, there are five big takeaways for me right now:

If you have anyone or anything important to you from Miami to the Outer Banks, make sure things are done to keep them safe or get them out of there. Evacuations are already happening in South Carolina, and they’re even considering making all four lanes of Interstate 26 northbound to get people out of there. Similar stories will surely be told for Florida and Georgia, and likely North Carolina as well.

As for the Tri-Cities weather, other than some extra wind gusts, Matthew probably won’t do much for us except keep us dry thanks to the subsidence (high pressure) around the storm. Things like this are why October is our driest month. Folks in the North Carolina mountains will see stronger gusts and maybe some rain, too…but nothing like the coast.

Prepare for things to get postponed this weekend. If you’re a Virginia Tech fan, the Hokies may or may not play North Carolina this weekend in Chapel Hill. The Dolphins game against the Titans in Miami might get moved as well. Sure, these are small issues compared to the big impact of a storm skirting the coast for as long as Matthew will likely do that, but people outside of the coast will still wonder about these types of things.

Be in prayer for those who have endured the storm in Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas, as well as those preparing in the United States. The countries that have already been hit have sustained lots of damage, and Haiti appears to be the worst hit right now. Matthew will be somewhat weakened by the time it is near South Carolina, which should be some good news for the coast. However, weather will be ugly there starting tonight in Florida and into the weekend up the coast.

There’s still a chance Matthew may go up the East Coast instead of curving. Tropical Storm Nicole is just to the East of Matthew, and that storm may do a loop as well. If it doesn’t loop, lots of people will experience Hurricane Matthew (or what’s left of it) into next week. And if it does curve, Florida might be in play again next week, too.

Thanks for checking here for the forecast! I know this has been a long one, but when there’s a Category 3 hurricane headed for our country, it’s important to make sure everyone knows what’s going on. Even if nobody here will be affected, people knowing people who are out there can spread the word, and if that saves a life, an extra 350 words or so in the blog is worth it!