The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort:

RANK

TEAM

LAST WK

GWP

Opp GWP

O RANK

D RANK

1

NO

2

0.82

0.46

1

13

2

IND

1

0.81

0.42

3

4

3

DEN

3

0.80

0.56

10

1

4

PIT

4

0.78

0.49

4

5

5

NE

7

0.73

0.48

5

16

6

DAL

6

0.72

0.48

2

24

7

SD

5

0.70

0.47

7

14

8

PHI

9

0.67

0.44

15

3

9

CIN

13

0.65

0.56

13

6

10

NYG

11

0.64

0.48

9

9

11

GB

8

0.61

0.38

11

11

12

MIN

10

0.59

0.44

8

22

13

NYJ

14

0.59

0.49

21

2

14

HOU

15

0.57

0.48

6

27

15

BAL

12

0.57

0.55

12

17

16

ATL

16

0.49

0.54

14

23

17

ARI

19

0.47

0.52

17

15

18

CHI

17

0.46

0.46

18

19

19

JAC

20

0.44

0.44

16

31

20

TEN

23

0.44

0.60

19

18

21

SEA

21

0.43

0.46

22

10

22

SF

18

0.41

0.50

24

8

23

MIA

22

0.41

0.63

20

21

24

CAR

24

0.39

0.51

27

7

25

WAS

25

0.37

0.37

25

20

26

BUF

26

0.35

0.48

28

12

27

STL

27

0.23

0.48

23

29

28

TB

31

0.21

0.56

26

30

29

OAK

28

0.20

0.60

31

25

30

KC

30

0.17

0.54

30

32

31

DET

29

0.16

0.54

29

26

32

CLE

32

0.13

0.60

32

28

And here are the sortable raw team efficiency stats. Passing, running, and penalties are in yards per relevant play. Fumbles and interception stats are in turnovers per relevant play.

@BBurkeESPN

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