Nylon Calculus

The dynamic of the Seattle Storm’s season changed dramatically, well before it started. In the middle of April, they lost reigning MVP Breanna Stewart for the season to a ruptured Achilles tendon. Just a few weeks later, it was announced that starting point guard and future of Hall-of-Famer Sue Bird would undergo knee surgery and

In a week we’ll be spending a lot of time talking about the NBA Finals MVP but first, let’s look at who has been the best player in the playoffs. We can measure this in via a few different ways — there’s Jacob Goldstein’s PIPM, where Draymond has been the best player on both a per-possession

Previewing the first-round series between the Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts Aside from the stellar play of Damian Lillard, the story for the Blazers heading into the playoffs is the injury status of CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. According

Previewing the first-round series between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts In a tremendous underdog story, the Golden State Warriors once again finished with the number one seed in the Western Conference playoffs. As always, they were led by

Have you heard the quiet whispers? The low murmuring of concern that, when it comes to the playoffs, Kyle Lowry might not be up for the challenge. If so, take that wad of cotton out of your ears because it’s more of a deafening roar than a quiet whisper. Kyle Lowry, ostensibly Toronto’s second-best player,

Previewing the second-round series between the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts Following a bizarre conclusion to Game 7, the Denver Nuggets have advanced past the San Antonio Spurs into the second round. Over the course of the regular season, the

Russell Westbrook was hammered off the court after his Oklahoma City Thunder got lambasted by the Portland Trail Blazers in the first two games of their series and perhaps, rightfully so. Besides his Game 3 recovery to help the Thunder snag a win, he’s been in a playoff slump since 2016. Maybe he’s not totally at fault.

Previewing the second-round series between the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts The Golden State Warriors finished off the Los Angeles Clippers in six games on the offensive strength of Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. Curry averaged 25 points per

Previewing the first-round series between the Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts The chart presents the approximate shooting percentages for Giannis and the remainder of the Bucks’ roster from less than 16 feet and from beyond the arc. It is important to

Previewing the second-round series between the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts Despite an early slip-up, the Toronto Raptors handled the Orlando Magic with relative easy in Games 2-5, with an average margin of victory of 18.25 points. While the Raptors offense

Previewing the second-round series between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts The Milwaukee Bucks took no time in dispatching the Detroit Pistons, who were without a healthy Blake Griffin for the entirety of the series. As evidenced in the point per

Before the first-round series between the Nets and 76ers began, the question of who Ben Simmons would guard had the potential to define a lot. As Jared Dubin pointed out, Simmons’ versatility has been unfurled a bit more since Tobias Harris was acquired in February. He has always spent time defending all five positions but

Previewing the first-round series between the Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts In the first season without DeMar DeRozan and Dwane Casey, the new-look Toronto Raptors have ripped off another excellent season, finishing with 58 wins. Following an increasing trend from the

It was a crazy first weekend in the 2019 NBA Playoffs. With all the Game 1 upsets, it felt like the typical first round of the NCAA tournament. We had a few underdog teams vying for the role of Cinderella as the Nets, Magic, and Spurs all won Game 1 on the road. While the

Previewing the first-round series between the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts While it’s well established that the post-deadline starting five for the Sixers has more talent than the rest of the league (non-Warriors division) with a +20.3 points per 100 possessions

Previewing the first-round series between the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts In the chart below, Jayson Tatum’s shots (as of April 4) are displayed in terms of relative density by distance. The shot areas are broken up as less than eight

Last year in this space, we introduced a metric called Wins Above Age-Derived Expectation, or WAADE. It measures exactly what it sounds like: how many more wins an NBA team actually gets than you would have expected them to based on their minutes-weighted age. In introducing the metric, we highlighted several teams that stood out

Previewing the first-round series between the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts The Denver Nuggets’ remarkable season has come on the backs of center-point Nikola Jokic leading them to the seventh-best offense in the league and veteran big man Paul Milsap

Previewing the first-round series between the Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz with shot charts, assist maps, offensive style charts and expected win probabilities. Shot charts James Harden has shot a truly unprecedented number of step back 3-pointers this year — approximately one out of every three in the entire NBA was taken by Harden. He

Devin Booker’s incandescent scoring pops, but his historic production still isn’t leading to wins. What’s the precedent for this level of individual brilliance coupled with team futility? Devin Booker’s scored 109 points in the last two NBA basketball games he’s played. You know this because it’s insane. You also probably know his team is 0-2

In basketball, passes are means to an end — tools that teams can use to increase their chances of scoring. In many cases, they can lead to efficient offense. Catch-and-shoot jumpers, for example, tend to be converted at a higher clip than comparable pull-up attempts. In pick-and-roll situations, possessions that are used by roll men

It started with a pair of 3-pointers and a dunk on the break. He shot the next 3-pointer off the dribble, then fading away, then falling out of bounds. He pointed to the floor and pulled up from 28 feet. The opponents were double-teaming him, fouling him, and calling in reinforcements from the bench. It

The Denver Nuggets have risen to the upper echelon of the Western Conference on the strength of an elite offense that features crisp ball movement. They assist on roughly two-thirds of their made field goals, trailing only the Golden State Warriors for the league lead. Their four secondary assists per game place them among the

You can be forgiven if James Harden’s 57-point, 8-assist, 7-rebound performance Wednesday didn’t exactly capture your attention. It was against the lowly Memphis Grizzlies. Harden scored nearly half his points against Justin Holiday, not exactly known as a defensive stopper. Oh, and the Rockets still lost. Still, nothing takes the shine off a legendary game

D’Angelo Russell has always had a knack for flair, a player whose ability to hit game-winners or throw mind-bending passes seems to only grow as his own confidence does. That growth and confidence have been on full display this season as Russell has elevated his game, emerging as an All-Star and, in his own words

After Zion Williamson’s injury sidelined him for a couple of games, the world rightfully panicked and worried about the compensation of one of the college basketball’s biggest stars. How could the current social media-driven society handle the fall of potentially one of the greatest basketball prospects to ever grace college courts? It would be bonkers.

The evolution of the Milwaukee Bucks’ offense has been one of the NBA’s central storylines this season — driven both by the visual impact of the changes and by the effectiveness, going from a top-10 offense to best in the league for a large chunk of the season. However, by the stylistic traits measured for our

After earning the Most Valuable Player award last year, James Harden has pieced together an equally stellar 2018-19 campaign thus far. ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus estimates his league-leading offensive impact at eight points per 100 possessions, roughly three points ahead of the next closest player. On nearly 40 percent usage, his true shooting percentage stands at

Jame Harden is breaking records and changing our conception of how a primary ball-handler can play. His 3-point shooting tendencies are like no one else in the league. James Harden is shooting 12.5 3-point attempts per game. That is a ridiculous stat in and of itself. But it is worth paying attention to how James

On Wednesday night, the Milwaukee Bucks dropped 50 points in the first quarter against the Wizards. A few hours later, the Warriors piled up 49 in the third quarter against the Spurs. Could someone actually hit 200 in a game? Warriors GM Bob Myers is an overzealous fourth-grader balling-up newspaper against the side of his