The perception of moderation that keeps David Cameron competitive among
floating voters is losing him support among Conservative-Ukip switchers

In the past few weeks we have written about the need for David Cameron to focus on what really matters – turning the economy round and reforming public services. We have voiced the concern that failure to project the right sense of priorities risks alienating traditional Tory voters and costing Mr Cameron the next election. The ICM poll published in today’s newspaper suggests that this is indeed the case. It shows that a key group of Right-of-centre voters – Conservative-Ukip “switchers” – are leaning towards supporting Ukip at the next general election. The party that Mr Cameron once wrote off as the preserve of “closet racists, fruitcakes and loonies” is striking a chord on the issues of immigration, government spending and traditional families. Conservative-Ukip switchers seem to prefer Ukip’s policies on these issues to those of the Tories, and they also rate Nigel Farage’s leadership style above that of Mr Cameron. Mr Farage’s party will not, of course, win the 2015 election, but 52 per cent of all voters think that it will be a factor none the less. The Eastleigh by-election was not a one-off protest vote: Ukip, it seems, is here to stay.

Mr Cameron is in a difficult situation, hamstrung by partnership with the Lib Dems and tough economic conditions. Despite this, he has reduced net immigration and committed the Coalition to austerity. He has shown admirable boldness in refusing to change course. Few would want to see a return to the reckless spending of the Labour era. Mr Cameron's approach seems to be paying off among floating voters – a large category of electors with no strong preference for any party – who signal that they would prefer the Tories to remain moderate. That is the good news. The bad news is that the Prime Minister faces a dilemma: the perception of moderation that keeps him competitive among floaters is losing him support among Conservative-Ukip switchers. He must find a way to reconcile these different demands.

Our poll gives some hint of how he might do it. Ukip is probably most associated with its Euroscepticism, yet one area of policy where Mr Cameron beats Mr Farage among Conservative-Ukip switchers is, interestingly, Europe. This is probably because the Tories have embraced an innovative policy that undermines the Ukip rationale for withdrawal from the EU. The promise of a renegotiation of membership terms followed by a referendum on whether or not to stay in is simultaneously boldly conservative and far more reasonable than Ukip’s alternative. It is a good example of Mr Cameron’s vision and political talent reaping rewards.

To win the next general election, the Prime Minister has to apply those qualities to generating economic growth, finding new ways to make sensible savings and recapturing the imagination of the Conservative-Ukip switchers. If he does not succeed, Ukip risks splitting the centre-Right vote and, ironically, putting into power something that no centre‑Right voter actually wants – a Labour government.