Cotton falls as traders wait USDA report, planting area worries

General Comments:Futures were a little lower again as traders get ready for the USDA January reports that will be released on Friday morning. A stronger U.S. dollar hurt demand ideas, but ideas are that the overall pace of export sales remains strong. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower next year here in the U.S. because of weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather features some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry. Trends are not well defined on the charts, but ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will be dry today and tomorrow, then will see rain move from west to east the balance of the week. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get dry weather except for some rain on Wednesday. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 70.49 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.098 million bales, from 0.097 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 196,500 bales this year and 12,200 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 7,700 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 74.60, 74.40, and 73.70 March, with resistance of 75.90, 76.40, and 76.95 March.

FCOJ

General Comments:Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading. Weather remains good in Florida, although more rain would be beneficial. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions to continue, but temperatures could drop a bit starting this weekend. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Winter is here, and with Winter comes the threat for a freeze to Oranges and other fruits grown in Florida, but there is no real cold weather in the forecast. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and light showers or dry conditions.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 108.00, 107.00, and 104.00 March, with resistance at 118.00, 122.00, and 126.00 March.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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