Seventh heaven

2014-07-15 11:30:00

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The dust has settled in College Station for another year. No, not that dust — the Aggies haven’t even gotten started in 2014. But for the State 7-on-7 Tournament, it’s all over but the singing.

And, of course, the analysis, which is where we come in.

The 2014 State 7-on-7 Tournament — which pits the finest 7-man teams from across the state against one another in what is essentially a passing league — has come to a close, and the champions have been crowned. This year, it was Katy Seven Lakes who took home the Division I crown (which is comprised of 6A and 5A teams) and Graham who repeated as Division II champions (containing 4A, 3A, 2A, 1A and private school teams).

But as fun as 7-on-7 football is — it’s a welcome oasis of football in the vast desert wasteland of the offseason — the real question that everyone has is: what does it mean?

Of course, it means that Katy Seven Lakes and Graham are very good at 7-on-7 football. But is their success in the passing league a harbinger of things to come in the fall, when 11 men will suit up instead of seven?

While we don’t have a firm answer — we’re good at predictions at Dave Campbell’s Texas Football, but even we can’t predict the future — we can look back at the historical data to draw a few conclusions.

We looked at the 46 teams that have played in a 7-on-7 state championship game dating back to the tournament’s inception in 1998. It should be noted that prior to 2007, there was no divisional split; everyone played everyone.

We wanted to know: how did teams that played for a 7-on-7 title do that season? The answer: pretty darn well, though there are no guarantees.

Here are the playoff finishes for the 46 teams that played for a 7-on-7 title:

Overall, the numbers suggest at least a decent correlation between 7-on-7 success and 11-man success. In sum, 37 of the 46 7-on-7 finalists made the playoffs that season, with more than 30% of them (14 of the 46) making the state semifinals.

Seven teams have turned that 7-on-7 success into an 11-man title, most recently Argyle, who was the runner-up in last year’s DII 7-on-7 tournament before winning the 3A Division II state title. What’s also interesting: the seven state champions are pretty evenly split as far as 7-on-7 champions and runners-up (4 teams won both the 7-on-7 and 11-man titles, while 3 finished second in 7-on-7 before winning a title).

When you dive into the records, it gets even more promising for the 7-on-7 standouts.

Check that out: 31 of the 46 finalists in 7-on-7 won at least nine games that season. That’s pretty good odds.

There are, of course, outliers. Cy-Fair in 2009 is perhaps the most extreme case — after being edged out in the Division I 7-on-7 title game, the Bobcats went an astonishing 0-10.

And that speaks to an important distinction to draw: 7-on-7 football simply plays into some teams’ strengths more than others. There’s a reason that teams like Southlake Carroll, DeSoto and Celina are always in the hunt for a 7-on-7 crown: their offensive schemes are perfectly suited for the 7-on-7 game. There’s also a reason that teams like Corpus Christi Calallen (one appearance in the state tournament), Fairfield (zero appearances) and Cibolo Steele (no appearances) can’t find a foothold despite their success in the 11-man game: it just doesn’t fit what they’re trying to do.

That said, there is sufficient data to suggest that success in 7-on-7 football usually translates to success in 11-man.

Here’s the complete data for the all-time 7-on-7 finalists.

Year

7-on-7 Finish

Team

Season Finish

2014

DI Champion

Katy Seven Lakes

???

2014

DI Runner-up

Whitehouse

???

2014

DII Champion

Graham

???

2014

DII Runner-up

Plano Prestonwood

???

2013

DI Champion

Southlake Carroll

11-2, regional semifinalist

2013

DI Runner-up

Houston Stratford

12-3, state semifinalist

2013

DII Champion

Graham

14-1, state semifinalist

2013

DII Runner-up

Argyle

16-0, state champion

2012

DI Champion

Plano

5-6, bi-district finalist

2012

DI Runner-up

Manvel

11-2, regional semifinalist

2012

DII Champion

Celina

10-3, regional semifinalist

2012

DII Runner-up

Graham

13-2, state semifinalist

2011

DI Champion

DeSoto

10-2, area finalist

2011

DI Runner-up

Houston Lamar

10-3, regional semifinalist

2011

DII Champion

Melissa

13-1, state champion

2011

DII Runner-up

Houston Kinkaid

10-0, state champion

2010

DI Champion

Lake Travis

14-2, state champion

2010

DI Runner-up

DeSoto

11-3, regional finalist

2010

DII Champion

Brownwood

14-1, state semifinalist

2010

DII Runner-up

Cameron Yoe

14-1, state finalist

2009

DI Champion

Round Rock Stony Point

13-2, state semifinalist

2009

DI Runner-up

Cy-Fair

0-10, no playoffs

2009

DII Champion

Celina

7-5, area finalist

2009

DII Runner-up

Rice Consolidated

11-2, regional semifinalist

2008

DI Champion

Richland

9-2, bi-district finalist

2008

DI Runner-up

Mesquite

5-5, no playoffs

2008

DII Champion

Crane

8-3, bi-district finalist

2008

DII Runner-up

Navasota

10-1, regional semifinalist

2007

DI Champion

Georgetown

6-4, no playoffs

2007

DI Runner-up

Houston Stratford

9-4, regional semifinalist

2007

DII Champion

Celina

16-0, state champion

2007

DII Runner-up

Crane

9-2, bi-district finalist

2006

Champion

Colleyville Heritage

10-4, regional finalist

2006

Runner-up

Rockwall

8-3, bi-district finalist

2005

Champion

Baytown Lee

1-7, no playoffs

2005

Runner-up

Bay City

5-6, bi-district finalist

2004

Champion

Tyler Lee

2-8, no playoffs

2004

Runner-up

Katy Taylor

6-4, no playoffs

2003

Champion

Odessa Permian

6-4, no playoffs

2003

Runner-up

Burnet

14-1, state finalist

2002

Champion

Katy Cinco Ranch

6-4, no playoffs

2002

Runner-up

Abilene

10-2, area finalist

2001

Champion

Baytown Lee

10-2, area finalist

2001

Runner-up

Austin Bowie

2-8, no playoffs

2000

Champion

Celina

16-0, state champion

2000

Runner-up

Abilene Cooper

10-4, regional finalist

1999

Champion

North Mesquite

7-4, bi-distirct finalist

1999

Runner-up

Lake Worth

9-3, bi-district finalist

1998

Champion

Southlake Carroll

12-2, regional finalist

1998

Runner-up

Grapevine

10-4, state champion

Greg Tepper is the managing editor of Dave Campbell's Texas Football and TexasFootball.com.

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WaterCooler Talk

Special thanks to DCTF for making the mag widely available on it’s release date...I’m a faithful reader and I already look forward to the winter edition with a recap of a stellar 2012 football sea...Broderic ,