11.30.2006

i guess i am resuming my regular blogging duties now. anyways, a wisconsin boy recently lost his title IX case, where he was suing so that he could compete on a girls' gymnastics team. at his school, there wasn't a boys' team because there wasn't enough interest and in his quest to become the next paul hamm, he wanted an opportunity to compete. he actually ended up losing on technical grounds with the court ruling that the athletic federation that administers high school sports in wisconsin is not technically an arm of the state. in other words, it technically doesn't get any government money.

i'm actually a little torn on this. on the one hand, i can see that girls would lose out if this was allowed since 1) he's taking opportunities away from other girls and 2) he would have an unfair advantage in some competitions such as the vault, where his natural advantage in muscle mass would help him. but on the other hand, how is this different from the girld who wants to play football? i suppose the deciding factor is the greater good, which in my opinion is girls having opportunities to participate in sports that they didn't have before, over the individual good, this dude getting to prance around in tights (look at me reinforcing hegemonic masculinity!). either way, as we get closer to equity in sports, we can see that we still have a long way to go in terms of really figuring out gender equity.

i hate that there's going to be a thursday night game from here on out. anyways, i don't have time to get all of my picks out there, but here is the thursday game.

bal (+3) over CIN (o/u - 41.5)for some reason i can't figure out, the bengals are favored here. their offense has looked great the past few games, so this could be a trap, but the ravens offense and defense have been just as hot, so i'll go with the dog here.

11.29.2006

for those of you who are uninitiated, the title of this post refers to the tagline of the new television show friday night lights. i know that i haven't been blogging about anything other than football picks, but this show is so freakin' good, that i felt compelled to put down in writing why i think the show works on so many levels. who knows, maybe, i'll start blogging on a normal basis again after this.

anyways, the show is about a fictional small town texas high school team, the dillon panthers. when i first heard that they were making a television show about this i was super skeptical. as mentioned on this blog before, i am a gigantic fan of the book, and i thought the movie was pretty good too. however, i could not just wrap my head around how NBC was going to be able to turn this into a regular television show. i had bad visions of varsity blues, the television series going through my head (not that i didn't love the movie, cuz i did). but you know what i mean, over the top sports scenes, ridiculous dialog from adults who were supposed to be teenagers and dumb stuff like that. but it turns out that i was wrong on a lot of levels.

first of all, it's well written. and in television, that is really the key to any good show, that the dialog be compelling. i feel like the teenagers talk and look like teenagers (with a couple of exceptions, but i'm not going to quibble over the fact that two of the three female leads look at least 23). but more importantly, i feel like the writers make it a point to not be predictable in terms of shows like this. for example, almost all of the main characters are flawed in some way, but they all also have moments we're we empathize with them and more importantly, we root for them because they decide to do the right thing.

in terms of subject matter, another thing i was afraid of is that they were going to try and cram every single topic pertaining to high school sports into one season. granted there have only been seven or so episodes, but i feel like the show is taking its time with a lot of the story lines. for example, in the first few shows, the stage is set for two of the players, the black star running back, and the hick drunk fullback, to hate each other. since then, they really haven't done much with it other than to show a few reaction shots to remind us that these guys don't like each other much. i could be wrong, and they end up doing a whole show on just that, but there are enough subplots to make sure that no one plot takes complete center stage for one episode. and i think that makes it more realistic. don't get me wrong, i understand that the medium of television is limited in the way it able to tell stories, so there needs to be some tidiness to story arcs, but like i said, i feel like the producers are taking their time. it definitely takes some commitment on the viewers part, but i personally like shows that are a bit challenging like that. it might have something to do with the fact that the show is produced by peter berg, whose background is in movies.

the second thing that i'm surprised i like is that the do deal with some typical teen angst show topics. i.e. cheating on your boyfriend, the vagaries of learning how to date in high school, jocks vs. nerds, etc. however, unlike it's predecessors like 90210 or even dawson's creek, instead of wrapping up the problem in a single show, the characters often make the wrong decisions, and then have to live with the consequences for several episodes. like i said, it is a show about teenagers, so of course some of these things are going to show up. i just feel that it's not done in the saved by the bell kind of way.

the biggest thing for me however, is that i find the overall tone of the show to be just plain sad. which is something you don't often find on television. and that is what i think makes it realistic. these are not people who are rising above what society has given them to achieve great things. they are people who make do with what society gives them and the only time that they really find solace in each other or their community is through the success of high school football. and that is how it really is in those small texas towns. perhaps it is my urban cosmopolitan background, but in high school whenever we went to one of these small towns to play an away game (no, i didn't play football, i was a band nerd), i always sensed this sadness among the people. that they are born, grow up, live, and then die in the same town. and it's not that they don't want to live in the big city and become all cultured or whatever, it is just that there are so many things that prevent them from leaving and that makes them sad. anyways, the sadness is done just so real, it's heartbreaking at times. and at the risk of sounding really lame, the sadness can be beautiful.

the sports scenes are done well, especially in light of the fact that there only seems to be a game every other episode. there's enough sports footage to give us an idea of how the game went, but most of the show focuses on life outside the actual game.

i also like that the show devotes a good portion of time to the lives of the adults. the coach, his wife, the parents, and things like that. again, this adds to the realism, since shows like 90210 or saved by the bell which revolved exclusively around the teens always came off as whiny and stupid to me. raising kids in small town texas ain't easy, and you can see it in this show.

it's by no means a perfect show. the first couple of episodes had a little bit of hokiness in how the dillon panthers won their games. and much like the movie, i'm not completely satisfied with thetreatment of race. there have been some real subtle things about the black/white dynamic, but there's been nothing about latinos, and in texas, believe me, they're everywhere, so it seems a little bit unrealistic in that respect. but overall, this is easily one of the best television shows that i've seen in a while.

anyways, NBC is doing a real interesting thing in making all of the episodes in their entirety available for viewing on their website. so for those of you who need to catch up, i highly recommend devoting a couple of hours this weekend in catching up.

11.22.2006

hoy cow, we are getting down to the stretch run and last week i think told us a lot about how things are going to turn out for our overall picks. in terms of picks, it was mega-status quo week as both fredo and i went 8-8 and therefore no change in how far apart we are. erik, who let his girlfriend pick his games went 7-9. i guess he was doing that bit where the radio talk show host will let his dog pick or something. in this case, erik's GF is the dog. way to go erik! anyways, after losing everything in a fit of wildass betting last week, i nailed two big parlays, one 10 dollar five team for +200, and even better a 15 dollar six team parlay for 600 bucks. fredo on the other hand went with quantity instead of quality and ended up losing 20 bucks. i'm still far away, but come on, i won 800 bucks on two parlays! give it up for me! anyways, here are the standings.

Bob vs. Fredo

Playa

season record

Winning Pct.

Vegas Round

+/-

Bob

71-82-6

(.464)

$625

-$795

Fredo

86-67-6

(.562)

$1090

-$330

Bob vs. Erik

Playa

season record

Winning Pct.

Bob

46-53-6

(.465)

Erik

46-52-6

(.469)

how do ya like my table skills? anyways, on to picks, numbers from caesar's, home teams in caps.

mia (-2.5) over DET (o/u - 39)yeah, i know that detroit has the thanksgiving game advantage, but after losing to the cardinals last week, i'm never ever going to take the lions in the matt millen era. erik, you're team is continuing to be the laughing stock of the NFL. i feel bad for you at this point. oh well, at least you have the tigers.

tb (+11) over DAL (o/u - 39)SEASON IS BACK ON! seriously, last week's win over the undefeated manning colts is one of the best wins in franchise history. i fully willing to admit that i was wrong on romo. he's got a little something and maybe the cowboys won't win the super bowl this year, i think that they're going to be stable at QB for a couple of years now, which it really hasn't been since troy aikman, NFL quarterback retired. given that, i'm just not going to leave 11 points on the table.

KC (-1) over den (o/u - 38)this one makes me nervous, but have i ever mentioned that jake plummer is the devil? shanahan has screwed himself by not going to cutler earlier, cuz if he makes the switch now, there's no way that denver can win the division or make a deep playoff run. rookie quarterbacks, just can't do that.

jax (-3) over BUF (o/u - 36)i'm going to end up regretting this, i just have trouble with the jags. i think they'll build on last week's win, while buffalo has had their moment in the sun by covering the spread with a minute left.

NYJ (-5.5) over hou (o/u - 39.5)not that i like the jets, cuz i don't, but i don't like the texans on the road even more.

BAL (-2.5) over pit (o/u - 38)nice little run that the steelers put together, but i can't imagine it lasting against a quality team. the ravens have been looking alot better since billick took over the play calling.

cin (-3) over CLE (o/u - 43)i really think this line should be a lot bigger so it worries me a little bit, but the carson-CJ show has been quite impressive, and i don't see it slowing down against a less than mediocre browns team.

MIN (-6.5) over ari (o/u - 38.5)again, i don't like the cards on the road. min may be tanking their season, but i just can't bring myself to take the cards this season.

STL (-6.5) over sfo (o/u - 44.5)middle of the road teams will win home division games against other middle of the road teams. and i refuse to believe that the niners are better than middle of the road.

no (-3) over ATL (o/u - 48)even though we saw bad vick last week, i think the saints will get it together if for no other reason than the NFL wants to keep its feel good story of the year going.

car (-4) over WAS (o/u - 36)good luck to jason campbell, without clinton portis, and against julius peppers. i forsee defensive touchdowns in this game.

IND (-9.5) over phi (o/u - 44)what's more likely, that the eagles rally around jeff garcia to send indy reeling to two consecutive losses, something they haven't done in over two years? or that indy blows the eagles out of the water. give me the latter.

TEN (+3) over nyg (o/u - 42.5)last week, after the cowboys won and the eagles lost, i was extremely happy about the way the NFC east was shaping up, because everytime i see the giants play, i see nothing even remotely special about this team. they really showed it on monday night, and i think that this is the week that the cowboys seize the division.

oak (+13.5) over SD (o/u - 43)of course, i don't think the raiders are going to win, but the rule is to take big dogs.

SEA (pk) over gb (o/u - 45)this line is off at most places, as no one knows if hasselbeck is ready to go. if he's not, i might be really tempted to go the other way with the packers, but since most reports are saying he'll be ready, we'll stick with the hawks for now.

i need to think about my money bets, so i'll post them as a comment later. have a great thanksgiving everyone.

11.19.2006

all you need to know is that fredo and i are two different ships headed in the opposite direction. after the last two weeks, i'm at 63-74-6 (.460), while fredo is at 78-59-6 (.569). even worse, in the money betting, i blew everything in a series of ill-advised bets and i'm down to $0.00. so we'll have to make up some new rules so that i can keep betting. fredo on the other hand actually, won 50 bucks two weeks ago, but he blew it all this past weekend, despite hitting a 5 team parlay. he's sitting on $1110 for the year, (-310 on the year). erik sucked as much as i did and went 6-10 last week and he forgot to play the week before. anyways, in that matchup, i'm 38-45-5 (.458) and erik is 39-43-5 (.476). whatever, he's still an effing a-hole. on to the picks, numbers from caesar's and home team in caps.

KC (-9) over oak (o/u - 35)umm, i know i shouldn't leave that many points on the table, but i just heard that they're putting aaron brooks back in. this fact really pisses me off because i didn't know this when i made my real life pool picks. damn you art shell. you give black coaches everywhere a bad name.

ind (-1) over DAL (o/u - 49)as much as it pains me to pick against the good guys, the simple fact is that even with romo playing at a pretty decent level, he is no peyton manning, who is seriously playing quarterback better than i've ever seen in my whole life. seriously, there's just no question that he's the MVP right now. the other thing is that i would have to believe that dallas is a serious contender to think that they might win. and unfortunately, i don't.

cin (+3.5) over NO (o/u - 52)lord knows why i'm taking the bengals, as they've kinda screwed me the last two weeks. but here's how i see it. their season basically ended with that crazy loss to the chargers last week. the pressure is off, they have something to prove, and they'll play well against a saints team that has basically overachieved all year. dammit, i hate my reasoning, yet another pick in my real football pool that i don't feel good about.

CLE (+3.5) over pit (o/u - 37.5)i'm not fooled by last week's steeler's win. the browns are going to be frisky the rest of the season, so i'll just go with the home dog here.

ten (-13) over PHI (o/u - 43.5)i don't feel good about this one either. i know it's a gigantic number, but it seems to me that philly is one of the teams that consistently takes care of business against the crappy teams in the league. but just too many points.

atl (+3.5) over BAL (o/u - 41)my falcons pick are simply based on the idea that michael vick totally kicks ass some weeks and then just sucks in others. i think he'll be good after being bad last week.

CAR (-7) over stl (o/u - 44.5)the panthers seem to always be a late season team and starting in the second half of last night's monday night game, i thought they looked great. like a real threat to win the NFC. julius peppers is simply unreal. and i'll think he'll cause all sorts of problems for bulger and company.

HOU (-2.5) over buf (o/u - 36)dammit, we took the bills in the pool too.

GB (+6) over ne (o/u - 45)i know people have said this before, but the pats look to be in pretty bad shape. i just don't see how this team can do more than win a wild card game.

was (+3) over TAM (o/u - -33)in probably one of the worst matchups of all time, jason campbell faces off against bruce gradowski. so this one will probably be playing here in santa barbara.

chi (-6) over NYJ (o/u - 38)people are overreacting to the jets beating the patriots last week. remember folks the patriots are in serious trouble so they're not as good as people think. therefore beating the patriots is also not as good as people think. give me lovie smith, the sure fire coach of the year over eric mangini, yet another completely overrated belichick disciple.

MIA (-3.5) over min (o/u - 33.5)seriously, what the hell happened to the vikings. for the first month of the season, i thought they looked great. now they've lost to the niners and the packers in consecutive weeks. another one i wish i could change in real life.

det (+2) over ARI (o/u - 45.5)you figure that this is good as any week where the cards get it together. but i can't take the cards for anything less than +5.

11.11.2006

good golly miss molly. so much has happened this week, between the dems taking over the government to the transition from k-fed to fedex, i'm only assured that my impending decision to retire from blogging might be a really good one. however, bloggers new addition of labels, may tempt me to stay on. technology rules! i've got a zillion things to do right now, so i can't talk much, so i'm just going to get on with the picks. i'll tally up our current standings in the comments section tomorrow or monday, but right now, i've got a fever and the only prescription is gamblin'! and more cowbell! number's from caesar's, home teams in caps.

kc (-1) over MIA (o/u - 40)this one seems easy to me as the dolphins ruined parlays all over the nation last week. my take, complete aberration. the chiefs are just a much better team for me to take the home dog.

JAX (-10) over hou (o/u - 37)my extremely sound logic is that houston won the last game, which they probably shouldn't have, and division games almost always split for the season.

CIN (+1) over sd (o/u - 48)not that i think cinnci is any good, it just seems that the chargers have been rolling all season against the spread. stay away.

cle (+8) over ATL (o/u - 42)seriously, the falcons are the most maddening team to pick. some weeks they look unbeatable, others they look like crap. usually i would say that since the falcons had a bad week last week, they'll have a good one this week. however, they had two good weeks in a row before than one, so again, with the bulletproof logic, i'll say they will make it even out here.

IND (-12.5) over buf (o/u - 45)i want to take the dog here as it's very possible that indy has a let down after last week, but without mcgahee, i just can't do it.

PIT (-5.5) over no (o/u - 45.5)last week's steeler's game was supposed to be a trap, but it wasn't as the steelers sucked like they have all year, the rare reverse trap if you will. however, this looks as trappy as can be, and i'd rather pick wrong then get caught.

PHI (-7.5) over was (o/u - 42.5)as bad as things have been for the cowboys, at least i can take some solace in the fact that the redskins are infinitely worse off than the boys.

chi (+1.5) over NYG (o/u -37.5)i'm surprised that the giants are still favored with all those injuries. the bears have a injury problem of their own with mike brown out. still, the giants are going to be basically starting their scout team on offense.

MIN (-5.5) over gb (o/u -39)i really should take the packers here, but i remember something about how favre sucks inside and in the metrodome.

NE (-10.5) over nyj (o/u - 37.5)i have nothing to say here, so i'll just say that even though we all saw the train wreck of the federline-spears marriage coming, it still is a relief that fedex will soon fade into pop culture obscurity.

stl (+3.5) over SEA (o/u - 43)just have a really good feeling about this one.

dal (-7) over ARI (o/u - 43.5)minus the playoff debacle a few years ago, the cards haven't beat the good guys for the last 7-8 games.

tb (+9.5) over CAR (o/u - 37)give up the points at home with the panthers.

money betsdamn it i really screwed myself last week with my wild ass betting. so eff it, let's end it all right now. i'm all in - give me everything i have the freakin' broncos. dammit, i hate gambling. all right kids, back to writing my comprehensive exam. see ya' next week.

11.05.2006

howdy kids, just got back from seeing borat. solid enough movie, but not life changing by any means. think of it as jackass for the nerds. i give it a B. for whatever reason, however, i get really giggly whenever he pronounces the word anus as ah-NUS. but that's neither here nor there. anyways, it was an interesting week of football last week. because of the screwy relationship that central california has to the northern and southern california markets, i missed the best game in indy/den, but i did get to see the tony romo era get off to a rousing start. am i sold on the kid? not yet for this season, but next year will be the real test to see if the kids got a future as the most important position in the most important professional football franchise in america. seriously, before six years ago, the qb succession line went like this - roger staubach, danny white, troy aikman. good qbs don't come like they used to. anyways, last week, fredo and i pretty much tied, with me going 6-8 and fredo going 7-7. so i didn't make up any real ground, but i didn't lose any ground either. for the season, i'm sitting at 51-58-6 (.468) and fredo is at 63-44-6 (.578). a quick note, previously, i had been calculating the win-loss percentage by including the ties. i don't know why, but i realize that's stupid to count ties as a loss, so the percentages reflect that now. and even still, i'm more than ten percentage points behind fredo. that's a lot of gorund to make up in the next few weeks, but it's not out of reach yet. on the side however, it's still pretty interesting. i made 60 bucks on my bets bringing me to $1298 (-$132 on the year) and fredo ended up with only losing 5 bucks on the strength of a 4 team parlay, bringing him to $1325 (-$95 on the year). however, just to warn you, i'm going to go crazy this week with the money bets so get ready for a big shakeup in that respects.

erik rejoined the game last week and he posted a pathetic 5-9 record. but even better, in our fantasy league, he went from being 20 points up to losing in about the thirty minutes it took to play the fourth quarter of the cowboys game. let me tell you, that was lots of fun to watch with him. anyways, his season record is 33-33-5 (.500) and i'm catching up quickly at 32-35-5 (.478). he sucks. anyways, let's get on with it, numbers from caesar's and home team in caps.

kc (+2.5) over STL (o/u - 48)herm edwards is telling people that he's going to go with trent green when he's ready to go next week. now i'm not a professional head coach or anything, but why would you do that when damon huard is playing so efficiently. i see big numbers for LJ this week as the chiefs roll in huard's swan song.

cin (+3) over BAL (o/u - 41)this one doesn't feel great to me, but this is a must win for the bengals. lose and their season is over and nearly any decent team usually wins those games in the NFL. i'm underwhelmed by the bengals (although i did take the preseason under on these guys), but i can see them getting it together against a less than mediocre ravens offense.

hou (+13) over NYG (o/u - 43)man alive, i'm apparently feeling really frisky taking all of these dogs on the road. i don't know, i hate the giants. i really can't tell with this big a number. i find that houston and the giants are tough teams for me to figure out, so i'm just gonna take the points.

ten (+9.5) over JAX (o/u - 37.5)let's just keep the crazy train rolling with another road dog. i thought about this one alot and even though the jags look alot better with garrard under center, what i've seen from the titans is more than what i expected. maybe they don't win this game, but i just have a hunch that they make a game out of this.

dal (-3) over WAS (o/u - 41)look, no one is happier that tony romo doesn't suck worse than say, jp losman. and to prove it, i'm going to take the boys even though, my usual thinking says that middle of the pack teams lose division games on the road.

gb (+3.5) over BUF (o/u - 40.5)the question to ask here is why are the bills favored here. perhaps i'm on the wrong side of a trap here, but i can't imagine that anyone thinks that the bills are better than the packers. plus, i get to get back on the road dog crazy train here.

no (-1.5) over TAM (o/u - 38)back off the train. i have a riddle for you. how many spleens does it take to be a terrible and overrated quarterback? zero. just as well that simms is out for the season, but gradkowski really isn't that much better. and that's saying something when you suck as much as simms did.

atl (-5.5) over DET (o/u - 47)man i really need to take one of these home dogs here. anyways, michael vick has been making a play to regain my love and sexual desire by throwing 7 touchdowns over the last two weeks, but i gotta be honest with you, wild ass scrambling mike vick is much sexier than accurate pocket quarterback mike vick. something tells me i ought to take the lions here, but i'm willing to give mike vick another chance at my heart.

CHI (-13.5) over mia (o/u - 37.5)i just read something crazy in bill simmons latest column a while ago. did you know that the dolphins haven't covered all year? 0-7 against the spread! that's just plain crazy. i find that more crazy than going 0-7 in real life. conventional wisdom says that almost every team ends up finishing somewhere around .500 against the spread, but the dolphins on the road against one of the top 3 teams in the NFL? forget it.

SFO (+5) over min (o/u - 42.5)i'm cheating here a little bit since i originally liked minnesota here. fredo thinks they're overrated which might be true, especially after seeing them get carved up by the patriots last monday night. but the reason i'm taking them is so i can get at least one home dog on my side.

SD (-13) over cle (o/u - 41.5)do you remember how football coming back to cleveland was such a feel good story? how people said that football "belongs" in cleveland and how the fans "deserve" a team? i'm really beginning to think that resurrecting the browns was a mistake. they've been around for about four years now, and they don't seem any better than they were year one. at least with the texans, i can say that there are a couple of really nice players on the team, but i can't think of one player on the browns that might start on another decent team. i think it's time we seriously consider moving the browns. seriously, why does ohio need two football teams? on a different note, at the beginning of the year before all the fantasy drafts, i was telling anyone who would listen that even though the conventional wisdom was the draft order should be 1. LJ, 2. shaun alexander, 3. LT, that LT is probably still the best player out of those three. johnson has come on in the past few weeks but LT has been consistently studly for about every week for about two years now.

den (+3) over PIT (o/u - 37)everything about this line screams "trap". yet i can't bring myself to take the steelers. their season is over and i think the broncos will rebound after last week's tough loss. and seriously, the whole shanahan boggling fantasy owners minds with his running back workload distribution is pure evil genius. i hereby do solemnly swear that for the rest of my fantasy career, i will never ever draft a shanahan coached running back. if you're in vegas though, take the steelers. one more thing, fredo pointed out to me last week, how a lot of times in my picks, i have a curious habit of making a really good case for one team, and then just inexplicably taking the other. genius, i know. actually, evil genius, just like shanahan. but seriously, i can't even begin to tell you how this is so obviously a trap.

NE (-3) over ind (o/u - 49)the line started at 0.5, which is kinda bad news for this pick. however, even though peyton won this game last year, the fact is he's 1-9 against brady and belichick. it's called playing the percentages, it's what good handicappers do. seriously, did you see how the broncos running game gashed the indy defense last week. i predict that both dillon and maroney will top 100 yards this week and i predict that it will only take maroney 10-12 carries to get there. do you hear that sound? i think that's the new england train pulling into the station again, and i don't want to miss it.

SEA (-7.5) over oak (o/u - 37)yeah....i'm not going to get suckered in by the raiders. so don't you either. although it is seneca wallace and maurice morris starting for the seahawks....they can't be that bad though.