Oscar Futures: Can Kate Beat Meryl?

Every week between now and February 2, when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or, sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture's Oscar Futures will listen to insider gossip, comb the Oscar blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who's up, who's down, and who's currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.

Best Picture

UP:Slumdog Millionaire. Rave reviews, great (per-screen) box office, and passionate supporters make this once-underdog seem like the only sure-bet nominee so far.

UP: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler. Following his apology for using a homophobic slur in an interview last Monday, he's impressively managed to avoid saying anything egregiously stupid for an entire week.

DOWN: Hugh Jackman, Australia. Will anyone be able to look past his sexiness? Variety's Todd McCarthy sure can't: "Women and not a few men will marvel at a stripped-down Jackman's sculpted torso as he rinses himself off in the campfire light."

DOWN: Angelina Jolie, The Changeling. Promoting her movie in the U.K. this week, she talked more about breast-feeding, her parents, and her imminent plans to quit acting. Her celebrity cost her a nomination last year — will it happen again?

DOWN: Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road. …Too bad he will definitely lose to Heath Ledger, who Roger Ebert's top-secret Oscar source claims will win, "period. For the other contenders, the nomination itself will be their reward."

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