2006 Economic Predictions for SC from USC

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USC has made the following economic projections for SC. It would seem to suggest that most of the growth in the state will be along the coast. It also suggests the upstate may be stagnating because of the slowdown in manufacturing employment and high unemployment.

[*]About 70 percent of the expected net gain in jobs statewide is expected to be in five counties: Charleston (+8,000 jobs), Horry (+3,350 jobs), Lexington (+3,180 jobs), Greenville (+ 2,630 jobs) and York (+2,300 jobs). About seven of every 10 new jobs in South Carolina in 2006 can be expected to be based in one of these five counties.

[*]The Midlands region is expected to post strong job growth in 2006, with Lexington County, in particular, projected to grow well above the statewide average. The region is seeing growth in many service and trade sectors as a response to the area

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Interesting read it's good to see how things are stacking up across the state. Again however I have still yet to see any evidence that greenville is growing any faster or economically stronger than SC's other 2 large metros?

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^I think that was his point, Spartan. That comment probably has particular reference to the "Upstate secession" thread.

At any rate, no surprises there. But I wonder with all of the growth along the coast, do you guys think that one day Savannah, Hilton Head, and Beaufort may become one MSA or CSA? They already share an airport.

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Thats what I was thinking krazee, but I didn't want to assume anything.

This forecast does not reflect growth though, just job creation. We could loose a company and then get another to replace it within 2006. Also, Greenville and Spartanburg counties are both in the top 10 for job growth. This stagnation is relative. We are seeing a lower growth rate compared to our population. But that reflects the dying textile industry that we are still clinging to. Its good that the Upstate is starting to move on from that trend though.

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^do you guys think that one day Savannah, Hilton Head, and Beaufort may become one MSA or CSA?

Keep in mind that CSAs and MSAs are determined by commuting patterns, not population increases. If there is a significant amount of commuters that travel amongst these three areas they might be joined into a MSA. However if not, they may remain in their on micropolitan statistical areas or uSA.

I think however the major growth is going to continue in the Myrtle Beach area and the areas just north of Charleston. Growth in both areas is staggering and I see the day coming where, except for the Francis Marion National Forest, there is going to be a continuous urban area from one to the other. There is already no break in the development from Georgetown to Little River. My guess is this is about 50 miles of development. And Myrtle Beach itself building literally thousands of condos as we speak and even larger ones are in the works so this is not low density sprawl.

The day is coming where the Myrtle Beach/Georgetown MSA is going to be the 3rd or 4th largest in the state.

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Well, that's better than what many other cities in the Carolina Piedmont are doing. Even Rock Hill is managing to carve out a new economic niche for itself (sports-oriented tourism), while benefitting from Charlotte's economic spillover.

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My statement is not ment to deny that GSA is growing or has a solid economic foundation I'm just saying that I haven't seen any evidence that it is light years beyond any other regions in the state, that's all.

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My statement is not ment to deny that GSA is growing or has a solid economic foundation I'm just saying that I haven't seen any evidence that it is light years beyond any other regions in the state, that's all.

How about the fact that Greenville is actively implementing mass transit with light rail and everything within 10 years? No other city in the state is further along with this than Greenville.

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I don't think that ties in directly to the economy of the Upstate being significantly further along than that of other areas of the state, although mass transit is indeed a vital issue. Charleston is gaining headway with mass transit plans as well. Columbia is having discussions about this too.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Greenville's LRT system is being built due to immense sprawl in the area. For example, my grandparents live in Oconee county. When going to their house there is almost continual development from Greenville through to Easley but it breaks between Easley and Clemson for about 15 miles. But the development continues out HWY 93 in Easley to Pickens and then with a short break, on to Seneca and Walhalla, just not as densely. And, the sprawl reaches in every direction. So, Greenville needs a way for it to bring in all of those outer lying areas to continue its growth. I guess my arguement is then, Greenville just sprawls more than Cola and Chas and needs the extra help in bringing the working force in. You have no idea how many times I've read the horror stories in the Gville news about how some poor lady has to pay some insane price in taxi fares just to get to her local walmart where she is a greeter. But, I could be wrong.

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I think you're absolutely right on this one. I think it's rather telling when Greenville is a city of 56,000 (urbanized area of 302,000 in 2000) but is the primary city of a metropolitan area (CSA to be exact) of 1.1 million. The Upstate NEEDS mass transit moreso than any other region of SC, although Charleston comes in at a hardy 2nd.

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Speaking of our booming coastal communities, Myrtle Beach's daily, the Sun News, has a special section which provides an economic forecast for the coastal Carolinas, including what's ahead for tourism, real estate, commercial real estate, golf, manufacturing, retail and the restaurant industry. Although many of the article concern economic predictions for 2005 (as they are older articles), they're informative nonetheless.

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All I heard about during the 90's was the booming coast. The Columbia MSA gained more people during that time. The article predicts strong job growth for the Midlands and Innovista won't even be a big player yet, except for the construction jobs it will provide.

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How about the fact that Greenville is actively implementing mass transit with light rail and everything within 10 years? No other city in the state is further along with this than Greenville.

Every major city in the Carolinas has plans, or should I say a desire, for a passenger rail system. Until they come up with a way to pay for it however only then is it possible to take it seriously. In Charlotte they voted in a special sales tax on all purchases to pay for it and after 10 years of planning its first LRT is finally under construction. In the Triangle, there was also a special tax voted in to pay for their commuter rail line but despite that, it looks as if they will not receive federal funding and that plan is most likely going to die.

So I would not say that Greenville is actively implementing mass transit with light rail as there are no funded plans on the books. Therefore is is no further ahead of Charleston or Columbia in that regard but it is great that SC cities are at least thinking about it.

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^I think that was his point, Spartan. That comment probably has particular reference to the "Upstate secession" thread.

At any rate, no surprises there. But I wonder with all of the growth along the coast, do you guys think that one day Savannah, Hilton Head, and Beaufort may become one MSA or CSA? They already share an airport.

I do believe that Jasper Co, SC is already part of the Savannah MSA. In ten years, I do think Beaufort Co will join.

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Every major city in the Carolinas has plans, or should I say a desire, for a passenger rail system. Until they come up with a way to pay for it however only then is it possible to take it seriously. In Charlotte they voted in a special sales tax on all purchases to pay for it and after 10 years of planning its first LRT is finally under construction. In the Triangle, there was also a special tax voted in to pay for their commuter rail line but despite that, it looks as if they will not receive federal funding and that plan is most likely going to die.

So I would not say that Greenville is actively implementing mass transit with light rail as there are no funded plans on the books. Therefore is is no further ahead of Charleston or Columbia in that regard but it is great that SC cities are at least thinking about it.

Actually Greenville is farther ahead on the mass transit than both those 2 cities. It amazes me how people that don't even live here seem to think they know so much about our city. Greenville has already secured some of the tracks for this and part of the funding I think. Article in Greenville News said they would have it within 10 years. You other guys are probably right about the sprawl and mass transit, that makes since to me.

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If you stay on top of transit news, it's not that hard to figure out where there are viable rail transit plans in the Southeast. I think it is great that Greenville is at least talking about it, but until there is an actual funding process in place I don't think it is something that you can list as a reason the economy is doing better than the rest of the state. Has the local transit authority published anything online?

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metro, I will check and let you know. They are very serious in Greenville about this though. Sorry if I came off wrong in the previous post. I read it and it sounded a little harsh. I actually love your city, but don't get to get there much as I would like and would be lost anyway like I was in Greenville when I first moved here.

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Moto, I don't think G'ville is ahead of Chas in mass transit...those 2 cities are probably running neck-and-neck. Come to the Chas forum and you'll see that there are several LRT plans being talked about for the city, including a monobeam system by Futrex, Inc. Funding is being organized right now, too. It will be interesting to see who wins the race for light rail transit.

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Moto, I don't think G'ville is ahead of Chas in mass transit...those 2 cities are probably running neck-and-neck. Come to the Chas forum and you'll see that there are several LRT plans being talked about for the city, including a monobeam system by Futrex, Inc. Funding is being organized right now, too. It will be interesting to see who wins the race for light rail transit.

Thanks for the info! All of our major 3 really need to be working at getting this up so they can all connect. Charleston is very beautiful city also, I haven't been there in a few years.

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Yeah I am familiar with Futrex. I wrote an article about them a couple of years ago. I like their technology and I hope they manage to get it off the ground.

I wasn't trying to invoke a comparison to Charlotte btw. I only brought it up because I am most familiar with it and it serves as a good example of the process of what has to happen to get light rail off the ground. The biggest obsticle is the funding. There has to be significant local funding these days or it simply isn't going to see the light of day. The RDU system was asking the Feds to pay for 60% (max allowed by law) and as a result that proposal has died because it got a low ranking. Financial viability is one of the measures they use.