The Star-Advertiser/Ward Poll released Sunday January 17, 2016 gives Hawaii a glimpse of what the presidential horse-race might look like if Hawaii conducted a State-run Presidential Primary as many other states do.

But Hawaii doesn’t. Instead voters are invited to cast their ballots in the caucuses organized by the Republican and Democratic parties. Party-organized caucuses normally attract only about 1-2% of the registered electorate—1/20th of the turnout for Hawaii’s State-run August, 2014 Primary which attracted 41.5% of registered voters.

The Hawaii Republican Presidential Caucus is to be held at 44 locations statewide Tuesday, March 8 from 6pm to 8pm. The result will determine the allocation of 16 of Hawaii’s 19 delegates to the Republican National Convention to be held July 18-21 in Cleveland, Ohio.

Hawaii Democrats are set to caucus Saturday March 26 (locations not yet announced) and vote in a ‘Presidential Preference Poll’ which will determine the mandate of a few of Hawaii’s 34 delegates to the July 25-28 Democrat National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Hawaii lacks party-identification of registered voters, a circumstance which aids the maintenance of the one-party Democrat-controlled status quo. If they were participating in the caucuses—which most respondents will not–self-described Democrats would vote:

52% — Clinton

18% – Sanders

6% – Trump

8% — Other Republicans

1% – Will not vote

15% — Other/refused

Self-identified Republicans would vote:

22% — Trump

11% – Cruz

11% — Clinton

9% – Bush

9% – Carson

8% – Rubio

4% – Christie

4% — Sanders

1% — Will not vote

19% – Refused/Other

Because Caucus turnout is such a small percentage of the electorate—comprised of more highly motivated and partisan voters–refined numbers can be attained by stripping out party-crossing results and refusals.

The result among Democrats:

74% – Clinton

26% – Sanders

The result among Republicans:

34% – Trump

17% – Cruz

14% – Bush

14% – Carson

13% – Rubio

6% – Christie

2% – Fiorina

Of course all of these numbers will shift dramatically as the results come in from Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states.