Doing Greek (or not, as the case may be….)

Well, hot on the heels of the Greek (and French) elections, a RedC poll has come out assessing the state of our parties and, perhaps a little more pressing, the current level of support for the Irish Referendum on 31st May for the Stability Treaty/Fiscal Treaty/Austerity Treaty (delete as you wish, or you could just call it by its short and snappy official title which you’ll find here).

For the referendum, it is a significant swing towards acceptance. The YES side has increased by 6%, to 53% (unprecedented a this stage of a European Referendum in Ireland), the NO vote has dropped 4 points to 31%, and the number of undecideds both sides will be chasing has diminished, by 2% to 16%.

This doesn’t of course mean that the Treaty is a done deal, of course, and there’s still plenty of time for things to change. If, for example, Phil Hogan escapes from the cellar he’s been tied up in, it could change. I also note that Chairman Ganley has decided to way in on the NO side. But it does confirm my suspicions that the NO side have been very weak to date, particularly when they are asked where we will find the money if we can’t enter another bailout. A call to play chicken with the rest of the continent may play well to a SU debate, or in an argument on Twitter, but most people who have mortgages or whose income depends on the State being solvent need something a bit more specific in the matter of “Plan B”, and the NO side aren’t giving that, at least in their media performances. Similarly accusing the Government of “scaremongering” isn’t a great tactic if most people listening don’t think you are proving them to be wrong. Fail to convince on that, and you’re in fact telling people that the consequences are, in fact very scary….

Anyway, I expect the NO campaign to find a bit more polish in the coming weeks, particularly with Libertas Nua, and so it is still all to play for…

In terms of party standings, % figures and IPR projections are as follows;

Projected result

%

seats

FG

29.00%

57

LP

13.00%

26

FF

19.00%

27

SF

21.00%

34

ULA

2.73%

5

GP

1.85%

0

OTH

13.42%

17

100.00%

166

As per usual, no ULA figures, so calculated in line with % of OTH in #GE11. A bad poll for the Govt, which may in part be reflective of the fact that the NO vote is higher than that of parties calling for it, although it is notable that it’s a very good poll for FF, perhaps reflecting good performances in the Referendum debate (among the better on the YES side). A very good poll for SF, and if they maintain this into the Autumn, they will be thinking seriously of leading the next Government, whenever that election arises.

Anyways, heading off with the wains….Community Games trials today, a stronger call on my time than here, I’m afraid…