Fantasy Football: Some surprise plays, sits

Things always get a little topsy-turvy at this time of the year in the NFL, and if you are lucky - and skilled - enough to still be alive in fantasy football, it's always the trickiest time of the season as well.

And, of course, the most important.

For most of you reading this in an effort to gain information, that would be because you have made it to your fantasy Super Bowl. If a commissioner is making you play your Super Bowl in Week 17, then I feel for you, and with all the "veteran's days offs" coming up, good luck with that.

But for those who know how to do it, this is it. Here are my predictions for surprise ups and downs this week:

Sit 'em in Big Game

A friend and fantasy-enemy folded when he should have raised last week, and it cost him a spot in the Super Bowl. He debated strongly about benching Peyton Manning (289 yards and 2 TDs) and putting in Nick Foles (428 yards and 3 TDs), but decided to "dance with the one that brung ya," and he paid for it with an 8-point loss.

While you don't want to go out on a limb and make any rash lineup changes, match-ups and trends don't lie - not this late in the year.

Patriots QB Tom Brady, who will be without tackle Nate Solder and possibly another wide receiver, young up-and-comer Josh Boyce. The Pats could get two other young WRs - Aaron Dobson (foot) and Kenbrell Thompkins (hip) - back this week, but Brady faces the Ravens, and needs to be benched.

Here are a couple of other players you should no longer dance with: QBs Phillip Rivers and Russell Wilson can't be trusted; Browns TE Jordan Cameron (concussion) won't play and RB Willis McGahee won't be worth a roster spot even if he does; Cowboys rookie WR Terrence Williams (hamstring) won't be worth it either.

Surprise MVPs?

Could Bears QB Jay Cutler really turn into your fantasy football Super Bowl MVP? He's back at the helm and he's going up against a weak Eagles pass defense - one that gave up 382 yards passing and two touchdowns to Matt Cassel on Sunday.

Here's another one you may not have thought of as a Super Bowl game-changer a couple of weeks ago: Tennessee's Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for a career-high 402 yards and had four touchdown passes last week against the 17th-ranked pass defense of Arizona, and he was the third-highest scoring quarterback in most fantasy leagues. This weekend he pays a visit to Jacksonville, where the Jags have the 19th-ranked pass defense and have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs.

Here are a couple of more shocker-studs: Chargers RB Ryan Matthews should go nuts against the Raiders; Jags RB Jordan Todman will have three TD runs against the Titans; Houston WR Andre Johnson, who has been benched by many smart owners this year, should be back in your lineup when he goes off against the Broncos' secondary this week; and TE Jermaine Grisham (hip) will shake off his latest injury and light up the Vikings.

Page 2 of 2 - One last thing: Don't make too many last-minute changes to your lineups. With the extra couple of days, work hard this week to figure out who belongs and who doesn't, and set your lineup on Saturday. There are always going to be some players you will want to watch on game day, and some questionables who will need some attention. But don't go changing late Sunday morning, just to change, or just because you woke up with a gut feeling.

Stick with the numbers, follow your research, and do what got you there.