The 108th Congress is now in crunch time. Congress will likely adjourn on October 8th and will likely return in mid-November for a two or three-week lame duck session. Bills introduced in 2003 or 2004 and not passed before the end of the lame duck session will automatically die and the bills' supporters will have to begin from scratch in January 2005. That's why in the short legislative period remaining before the conclusion of the 108th Congress, we can expect a blizzard of activity by immigration lobbyists. We summarize below our best speculation on three areas critical to immigration attorneys: AgJOBS/DREAM, H-2B, and H-1B/L.

AgJOBS/DREAM - the supporters of both these bills have prepared their ground well, particularly in the Senate. Senate passage for these two bills appears almost certain. On the House side, however, the House Republican leadership is likely to oppose both these bills in conference. This may be the reason why the House Republican leadership has floated the horrible anti-immigrant provisions in H.R. 10. Our best guess is that the anti-immigrant provisions of H.R. 10 will be offered by the House Republican leadership as sacrificial lambs in exchange for Senate surrender on AgJOBS and DREAM. In addition, the House Republican leadership may also have offered the anti-immigration provisions of H.R. 10 now in the hopes that anti-immigration Republicans will turn out on November 2nd (they may then kill these provisions after the election).

H-2B - the proponents of the H-2B tried and failed to enact the "Save our Summer" bill. However, Sen. Stevens, Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, was successful in obtaining a de facto waiver of the H-2B cap for his state by exempting the fish roe processing industry from the cap. It is likely that other industries are trying for similiar relief. It is our guess that these efforts will go nowhere in the 108th Congress.

H-1B/L - we are confident that there is significant momentum behind H-1B cap relief. This cap relief will likely be limited to those with advanced degrees. We believe that this relief will not be cost-free, and restrictions on the L will be the price for this relief. The exact nature of the L restrictions are still very fluid and subject to negotiation between the two parties and the two chambers. We believe that the lame duck session will see some compromise on H-1B/L enacted into law.

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Dear Editor:
The minutes from the most recent September 13, 2004 ESIG/USCIS meeting were released.

Bob Meltzer (on behalf of ESIG)

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