When Rio Tinto's iron ore boss Chris Salisbury greets the investment community in Perth today for a week of briefings and site visits, he might feel like his thunder has been ever so slightly stolen.

Rio's big rivals in Australian iron ore, BHP and Fortescue, have announced a collective $US4.67 billion ($6.25 billion) worth of new mines in recent weeks, with BHP's approval of the $US3.4 billion South Flank mine coming on Thursday evening Australian time.

Those big approvals have sharpened the focus of this week's briefing on to when Rio will approve its next iron ore mine, which is expected to be the $US2 billion plus Koodaideri project.

Like the arrival of Amazon in Australia's retail sector, the approval of Koodaideri has been breathlessly anticipated for what feels like an eternity.

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It went before the Rio board as far back as November 2013 but was deferred as part of Rio's "breakthrough pathway for iron ore expansion", which was an extravagant way of saying that two mines would be developed later rather than sooner.

"The big advantage under the breakthrough is that the Koodaideri mine, with associated 180-kilometre railway line, is now not required in the medium term. It will be developed at some point, but first production is not needed before 2019," said Rio's then iron ore boss Andrew Harding on December 2, 2013.

While Salisbury could yet spring a surprise on Monday, Rio is expected to wait until later in the year before its board gives the official green light to Koodaideri.

But investors will be keen to hear the company's latest thoughts on the size and cost of the project, which in 2013 was expected to produce about 36 million tonnes per year but has in recent years been talked about as a 40 million tonne per year project.

Rio has also been conducting studies on whether it would make more financial sense to build Koodaideri at 70 million tonnes, and clarity on the scale will be keenly sought by the market, which can be sensitive to talk of supply expansions.

Like BHP's South Flank, Koodaideri will be mostly about replacing the volumes that are currently supplied by mines that are close to the end of their working lives.

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But both projects are expected to provide some volume growth to their owners, who are both yet to reach their respective long term export targets.

Rio's path to reaching its long-term goal of exporting 360 million tonnes will be another key topic of debate at this week's briefing.

While BHP has provided clear guidance on when it will reach its growth target of 290 million tonnes per year, Rio has refused to give clear guidance.

The cagey approach suits Rio chief executive Jean-Sebastien Jacques' narrative around "value over volume", which in hindsight, has been the dominant philosophy within Rio's iron ore division since that "breakthrough pathway" was unveiled in 2013.

But perhaps the lack of clarity over the 360 million tonne target was more driven by the troubles Rio has had with its autonomous train program over recent years.

The railway has long been the bottleneck in Rio's iron ore logistics system, but that bottleneck should finally be resolved once the train program, dubbed "Autohaul", is up and running.

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That means the 360 million tonne target should be theoretically possible in 2019, but Shaw and Partners analyst Peter O'Connor said 2020 was more likely to be the first year in which Rio actually exported 360 million tonnes.

"As it stands today, the first full year where they will get the full benefit of the autonomous trains will be 2020. They will hit the rate during 2019, but they will hit the full annual capacity during 2020," he said.

Deutsche analyst Liam Fitzpatrick agreed, but was pessimistic about the chances of Rio providing clear guidance beyond the 330 million to 340 million it is expected to ship in 2018, including tonnes owned by joint venture partners like Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting.

"With the completion of AutoHaul at the end of 2018, capacity should move to 340 to 350 million tonnes in 2019 and approach 360 million tonnes per annum across mine, rail and port in 2020," he said in a note.

"From 2020, mine developments will dictate the pace of growth and could soon become the limiting factor."

Rio has talked a lot in recent years about its belief that China will increasingly pursue high-grade iron ore, and like Silvergrass, Koodaideri is expected to help maintain Rio's "Pilbara blend" product.

But Mr O'Connor said investors will want to know what Rio's iron ore grade profile looks like over the next 20 years, given perceptions that average grades across the Pilbara region are declining as miners chew through the best deposits.

"They have all got to replace mines because they are burning through an enormous amount of iron ore every year," he said.

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"Where are the next couple of mines?"

Ore with 62 per cent iron content was fetching $62.08 per tonne on Friday and has been hovering around that level for almost three months.

The commodity has averaged $US67 per tonne over the past year.

Deutsche expects iron ore to average $US66 per tonne in 2018, before averaging $US58 per tonne in each of the next three years.

"We expect Chinese iron ore imports to peak around 2020 due to slowing demand and rising scrap use. While we think some of the bear scenarios around scrap consumption displacing iron ore units are premature, scrap availability is set to increase significantly through the 2020s, limiting the growth avenues for the iron ore majors," said Mr Fitzpatrick in the note.

"The value over volume strategies adopted by the two largest iron ore producers, Rio and Vale, over the past two to three years, and the broader industry-wide slow-down in growth, have had beneficial impacts on the market both in terms of market balances (lower supply) and sentiment (reduced concerns over future over- supply).

"We do not expect these strategies to change over the coming years and, as such, we do not see iron ore over-supply as a bear factor for prices but more future demand levels as a limiting factor on volumes."

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