Even with congressional approval ratings sinking to just 10-20 percent during the past two years, few incumbent members of Congress faced opposition in the primary election.[1] Less than half (41.6 percent) of incumbents seeking re-election in 2014 faced a challenger. More strikingly, despite abysmal overall approval ratings only four of the 387 (just over 1 percent) House incumbents who sought re-election were defeated in their primary election.

In general, primary competitiveness was low all around in 2014, not just in races with an incumbent seeking re-election. Of the total number of possible contested primaries, only about one third (39.5 percent) of races had more than one choice on the ballot.

Methodology

Of the 435 U.S. House seats up for election in 2014, 429 were considered for this study. Louisiana was left out due to its lack of primary elections. Following each primary election, Ballotpedia staff measured the competitiveness of the primary elections in each state based on two factors: number of contested primaries and number of incumbents facing a primary challenge.

Primary competitiveness

This figure was calculated from the percentage of major party races in each state that were contested. In most states, this meant races in which there were two or more candidates running in the primary from the same party. However, California and Washington were measured differently due to their blanket primary system. In those two states, there was only one possible contested race in each district, and a race was considered contested if there were three or more candidates running in the primary election.

Incumbent primary competition

This figure was calculated from the percentage of incumbents who ran for re-election that faced competition in the primary election based on the same criteria as listed above.

Primary competition

Only 314 of the 795 possible major party primaries were contested in 2014. This amounts to 39.5 percent primary competition. On average, Republican primary elections were more competitive than their Democratic counterparts. Republican primaries saw 43.17 percent competition, while only 32.24 percent of Democratic primaries had more than one choice on the ballot. As expected, blanket primaries were the most competitive, with 76.19 percent having more than two candidates on the ballot.

Most competitive primaries

Even though there was no choice on the ballot in most primary races across the country, some races were won by extremely small margins. The four most competitive primary elections are highlighted below.

Tennessee's 4th

Tennessee's 4th Congressional District's Republican primary saw the smallest margin of victory of any race in the 2014 primary season. Scandal-plagued incumbent Scott Desjarlais defeated State SenatorJim Tracy by a mere .1 percent of the primary vote. Desjarlais received just 38 more votes than Tracy in this contentious race.[2] According to Politico, there was no incumbent more likely to lose a primary than DesJarlais. This was due to sworn testimony from DesJarlais' 2001 divorce trial in which DesJarlais, a former physician and hospital chief of staff, acknowledged having sexual relationships with patients and even prescribing drugs to one of them.[3]

Georgia's 1st

Georgia's 1st Congressional District's Democratic primary was a very close three-way race between Brian Reese, Amy Tavio and Marc Smith. Reese came out .2 points ahead of Tavio, who beat Smith by 1.6 percent. As a result of the primary, Reese and Tavio advanced to a primary runoff election.[5] However, that's when the race stopped being close, as Reese triumphed over Tavio by roughly 26 percent in the subsequent runoff.[6]

Incumbent competition

Primary races in which an incumbent sought re-election were slightly more competitive than those without an incumbent running. An overwhelming majority of incumbents ran for re-election in 2014 and competed in a primary race. Just over 90 percent (387 out of 429) of U.S. House incumbents sought re-election in 2014.[8] Of those incumbents who did run for re-election, 41.6 percent faced a primary challenger.

As was the case with general primary competition, incumbent competitiveness was higher within the Republican Party than it was in the Democratic Party. Of Republican incumbents, 45.85 percent faced a primary challenger, while 36.81 percent of Democratic incumbents seeking re-election faced a primary opponent.

Despite the overwhelming number of incumbents who sought re-election, only four, or just over 1 percent, were defeated in their primary this year. This figure may sound extremely low, but it is actually right on par with congressional elections of the past decade.[9] The only outlier is 2012, where 13 incumbents were defeated. However, this was largely due to redistricting forcing incumbent vs. incumbent battles. Only five of the 13 were actually defeated by a primary challenger, while the remaining eight lost to a fellow incumbent.

Defeated incumbents

Ralph Hall

Ralph Hall

Incumbent Ralph Hall (TX-04) was the first incumbent to lose his re-election bid. He faced five challengers in the Republican primary and received 45.4 percent of the vote, falling short of the majority required to avoid a runoff election. Hall was subsequently defeated by challenger John Ratcliffe in the runoff election by 5.6 points. At the age of 91, Hall is the oldest lawmaker to have ever served in the U.S. House.[10] Hall's age was an issue in the race, and Ratcliffe portrayed himself as part of the next generation of conservative leaders.[11]

Eric Cantor

Eric Cantor

In the most shocking upset of the primary season, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (VA-07) was defeated in the primary by challenger David Brat by a significant 11 percent of the vote. Cantor's defeat marks the first time in history that a House Majority Leader lost a re-election bid.[12] Most signs pointed to an easy primary win for Cantor, including his massive fundraising edge over the challenger.[13][14] However, increased voter turnout may have contributed to his defeat. Following his defeat in the primary, Cantor first resigned as House Majority Leader and then from Congress entirely.[15]

Kerry Bentivolio

Kerry Bentivolio

In what is likely the least surprising incumbent defeat of the season, Kerry Bentivolio (MI-11) was defeated by David Trott in the Republican primary. In a decisive victory, Trott received nearly twice as many votes as the incumbent.[16] Leading up to the election, Trott was consistently ahead in both polling and fundraising figures. Not one to give up, Bentivolio officially filed as a write in candidate for the general election. He stated that his intention was to bring out more Republican vote in the district and not to derail Trott.[17]

John Tierney

John Tierney

Incumbent John Tierney (MA-06) was the final incumbent and only Democrat to go down in the primary season. Challenger Seth Moulton defeated Tierney and three other Democratic candidates in the primary on September 9, 2014. Moulton took in 50.8 percent of the vote to Tierney's 40.1 percent.[18] Tierney was left vulnerable following a scandal surrounding his wife, who pleaded guilty to helping her brother file false tax returns in connection with his operation of an illegal offshore casino. Due to the scandal, he barely won re-election in 2012, and it likely contributed to his demise in 2014.[3]

Full results

Full results on primary and incumbent competitiveness are broken down by state below.