[09] HERE ARE THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ON THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT AND ON THE GROUND IN THE BALKANS:

Bosnia is in a much more difficult situation today than after the
last war because it does not have a clear political concept for the
future, said a commentary in the Sarajevo daily Oslobodjenje on Saturday.

"Bosnia has defended itself once again, but it will painstakingly
fight for its fate and stability with political means for a long time,"
Ibrahim Prohic wrote. "In this regard, '96 was considerably more
difficult than '46, and uncertainty is perhaps the most distinct
difference. Then, people knew the war was over, and now they are only
hoping for a stable peace. Then, peace was based on inside cohesion, and
this one is being implemented by international forces. The interior-
policy matrix is much more conflicting now, with many open or concealed
antagonisms, therefore unstable. The balance between integration and
factors which are opposite to it is fragile. Bosnia will hardly survive
with the Dayton carving. While reconstruction was the main task in '46,
now it is accompanied by the unavoidable transition and search for an
optimum political formula.

"In '46 the state had a clear vision (class state), so it
constituted a political system faster. Now the situation is much more
complicated, there is no clear vision, and even less concord on basic
principles and concrete solutions.

"Aspirations for a national state (ethnically pure) are not
concealed in the Serb entity. The Croat dominant political factor (HDZ)
covertly prefers the same formula. Bosniaks (Bosnian Moslems), who have
definitely become a political people (and the most deserving that the
authentic and historic idea of Bosnia still has a chance), are the least
homogenous and are wandering between the national and the civic.

"Even in the SDA, an immanently national political organization, its
members are stretched out between the national and the civic concept,
between partial and integral, desired and given, possible and real.
Bosniaks outside the SDA prefer the civic. The same goes for the HNV and
SGV (Croat National Council and Serb Civic Council). It is uncertain
which direction the voting body will take.

"In any case, a complex formula is being sought that would reconcile
the civic and national. The problem of this Bosnia is that it is located
between two national states which are a threat to its survival with their
radical methods in practice," Prohic wrote.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) air
bridge with Sarajevo has saved the Bosnian capital from complete Serb
strangulation, said a commentary in the Sarajevo daily Oslobodjenje on
Saturday.

"Since Thursday, January 4, UNHCR planes have not been delivering
food for Sarajevo," Emir Habul wrote. "This has practically ended the
longest air bridge in history, although the formal closing will take place
on January 9. Hence, Sarajevo has surpassed Berlin, which held the
unpopular record for decades. This fact, as well as the number of 13,000
flights, best illustrate the depth of the blockade in which the capital of
Bosnia-Herzegovina found itself. "It is superfluous to say that food and
medicine deliveries saved the residents of Sarajevo. However, this biggest
air transport in modern history also has a wider political meaning.

"Still, thanks to the fact that the Butmir airport was taken over
by U.N. troops from the Serb army and that the air bridge was later
established, the concept of a total blockade of Sarajevo failed. Serb
strategists had counted that the city would fall within two months without
food, medicines, water and energy supplies. Hence, the main strategic
trump was taken from the Serb generals in the very start -- subjugation of
Sarajevo.

"The presence of U.N. troops at the airport also enabled the
digging of the tunnel (under it). If the JNA, that is, the Serb army, had
stayed at the airport which it captured on April 5, 1992, one would not
even have thought of digging a tunnel. Thanks to this 'emergency exit,'
maneuver of units was possible, Mt. Igman's fall was prevented in late
July 1993, and there was some movement of civilians and delivery of
necessary food and fuel," Habul said.

A senior adviser to U.S. President Clinton said Monday that he was
not satisfied with the speed of implementing the Bosnian peace deal and
singled out the city of Mostar as an area of great concern.

Special adviser Robert Gallucci made the comments after talks with
Croatian Defense Minister Gojko Susak, who stressed Zagreb's support for a
federation of Bosnian Croats and Muslims which has been deeply strained by
ethnic violence in Mostar.

Susak also suggested that any disputes which could not be solved
within the federation, formed after a 10-month Muslim-Croat war devastated
Mostar, could go to arbitration. "During Galluci's trip to Sarajevo I
think he is going to pose some direct questions which would have to be
handed over to arbitration if we cannot find an agreement," Susak said.

Gallucci told reporters: "We have been having a number of
individual problems that developed in a number of places in the news of
the last three days. Some of the worst incidents (were) in Mostar," he
said, adding that this was of "great concern."

U.S. President Bill Clinton will visit U.S. troops in Bosnia this
weekend after a domestic trip that will take him to New York City and
Nashville, Tennessee, the White House said on Tuesday. Clinton will
"depart for the region" from Nashville on Friday, accompanied by a small
cadre of White House aides and journalists. Details of his trip are being
kept secret because of security -- the president would be "basically gone
over the weekend" and he would "be back" in Washington by next Monday.

Asked if the White House regarded the trip as dangerous, White
House sopkesman Mike McCurry said: "We always are very confident of
security arrangements available to the president."

It is not yet known whether Clinton will visit Sarajevo, where
late Tuesday Serbs began burning key locations, apparently destroying
strongpoints they plan to vacate. A Serb withdrawal could begin as early
as Friday, only hours before Clinton is due to start his visit.

Metropolitan Nikolai, the highest figure in Bosnia's Orthodox
church, worshipped in Sarajevo for the first time Monday and called on all
citizens to build on the country's new-found peace. Nikolai presided over
a Mass in the Bosnian capital's Old Orthodox Church, built in the 12th
century in the old Turkish quarter, to mark the second day of the Orthodox
Christmas. Nikolai was appointed head of the Orthodox Church in Bosnia in
September 1992 when the war in the former Yugoslav republic was in its
fifth month. He set up his base at Sokolac, a small Serb-held town east
of the city, and never visited Sarajevo.

He called on Orthodox Serb residents, many of whom have threatened
to leave the capital, to respect Catholics and Muslims. "May God bless
Serb, Croat and Muslim people who have always lived in harmony here in
Sarajevo," he said. "I wish people to live in a tolerant atmosphere like
before the war. I call on Serb people to contribute to this."

Nikolai was joined for the Orthodox Christmas liturgy by four
other priests, the High Representative for Bosnia Carl Bildt, and members
of Bosnia's diplomatic community.

Some 200 people attended the service held amid tight security.
French NATO troops checked women's handbags and baskets and patrolled the
streets outside the church.

U.S. special envoy Robert Gallucci flew into Belgrade Tuesday on
the latest leg of a diplomatic mission to bolster the Bosnia peace deal
ahead of President Clinton's visit this weekend. He spent two hours with
Serbian President Slobodan Milosovic and is thought to have sought his
help in defusing a highly volatile situation in the Bosnian capital
Sarajevo where Serbs are threatening a mass exodus.

Gallucci, a leading troubleshooter who handled highly delicate
U.S. negotiations with North Korea over its nuclear program, was reluctant
to discuss the details of his talks at the Serbian presidency in Belgrade.

Gallucci later left for Sarajevo where he will meet Bosnian
leaders Wednesday.

The Bosnia peace accord prescribes free movement for all
throughout the land to foster ethnic reconciliation and economic
reconstruction.

But free movement remains a pipedream -- the few local non-Serb
travellers to have dared cross Serb soil have been blocked, harassed or
abducted.

NATO, busy separating the warring sides, vows not to get involved
in local law-and-order work, while a U.N. police force assigned that task
is months away from being sent to Bosnia.

"Without an opening of the corridor to the north, a strong recovery
of our economy will be impossible," Tuzla Mayor Selim Beslagic told
reporters. He said a 800-mile detour to central Europe via western Bosnia
and Croatia's Adriatic coast imposed on Tuzla by the war would be no
viable alternative in peacetime.

"Money, like water, generally finds its way. Whether peace lasts in
Bosnia hinges on whether its peoples rediscover the value of trading
freely with one another," said Zlata Hukic, Tuzla city spokeswoman on
economic affairs.

Tuzla area, with the densest population -- some 450,000 -- of any
in Bosnia, also had one of Yugoslavia's strongest regional economies,
after Slovenia, Hukic said.

During the fights between Croats and Muslims in 1993-94 industrial
production plunged to five percent of the pre-war level and many of people
faced starvation. Today production revived to about 30 percent of
pre-1992. Unemployment is about 70 percent, the average wage is around $30
a month, so few can afford to buy anything.

Hukic estimates $1 billion of investment is needed to restore
pre-1992 living standards. Tuzlans count on the U.S. Army presence to help
jump start the regional economy. U.S. forces have hired scores of locals
as translators and contractors while renting property for large amounts of
hard currency.

A book by Jasna Arzberger called "Seven Lives for Bosnia" was
promoted Friday in the Austrian cultural center in Zagreb in cooperation
with the cultural and information center of the Bosnian Embassy in
Croatia. The book is partly a feuilleton, partly a story about the
organization and delivery of humanitarian aid for Bosnia. During more than
three years of the war in Bosnia, the author has been in this country with
relief convoys over 30 times, bringing food, medicines, clothing and other
materials. As a member of the Austrian relief agency CARE, Arzberger has
successfully organized a project of breaking a several-month humanitarian
blockade of her hometown Tuzla in northeast Bosnia.

The book was published in Croatian and German and is illustrated
with several stirring pictures. Part of the profit from the sell will be
given to children of soldiers killed defending Bosnia.

[09] HERE ARE THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ON THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT AND ON THE GROUND IN THE BALKANS:

After a week of serious violations of the Dayton Accords, Bosnian Serb forces
today attacked a tram in Sarajevo with a rocket-propelled grenade and sniper
fire, killing one woman and wounding 19 other persons.

President Clinton is expected to visit U.S. troops in Bosnia January 13-14 in
advance of his State of the Union address on January 23. Approximately 6,000
of the planned 20,000 U.S. troops have deployed to Bosnia. Tomorrow,
presidential advisor Robert Gallucci will complete a three-day series of
meetings with Croatian, Serbian, and Bosnian officials.

Operation "Provide Promise," the U.N. airlift to Sarajevo, terminated after
delivering remaining supplies today. The operation began in July, 1992, and
is technically the longest airlift in history. It was often suspended,
however, due to lack of supplies, Bosnian Serb attacks, and U.N. deference to
Bosnian Serb demands.

ACSB encourages you to maintain pressure on the Administration and Congress
to ensure that the most positive elements of the Dayton Accords are being
implemented and that the Bosnian Army is trained and armed. The Accords are
deeply flawed and threaten the future of Bosnia, but they are also now a
reality. It is imperative, therefore, that we make the most of potentially
positive elements. In particular, the Administration must comply with the
Dole-McCain resolution, which calls for a written commitment and plan from
the Administration to train and arm the Bosnian Army, as well as regular
reports to Congress on progress in implementing the military and non-military
provisions of the Accords. The most important provisions concern securing
conditions for the free and safe return of refugees; guaranteeing conditions
for free, fair, and secure elections; and ensuring full cooperation with the
U.N. War Crimes Tribunal, particularly on the part of Croatia, Serbia, and
the "Republika Srpska." The Administration must ensure that suspected war
criminals are apprehended and transferred to the custody of the Tribunal, and
that the U.S. provides the necessary financial and evidentiary support for
the Tribunal.

ACSB urges you to call the White House Comment Line at 202-456-1111 and
demand that President Clinton fully comply with the Dole-McCain resolution
and take a leading and active role in training and arming the Bosnian Army,
securing conditions for the free and safe return of refugees; guaranteeing
free, fair, and secure elections; and ensuring full cooperation with the U.N.
War Crimes Tribunal.

Also write, call, fax, and e-mail your Senators and Representative and urge
them to call on the President to do the same. The Capitol switchboard can be
reached at 202-224-3121 or 202-225-3121.