Stuff

ComRes meanwhile have the result as 33% thinking Clegg won, and Cameron and Brown in equal second place on 30%. So Clegg ahead rather than Cameron, and a closer spread between the three party leaders than with YouGov’s figures. Angus Reid’s current figures also have Clegg ahead of Cameron by much the same margin (35% to 33% as I type, but they are not final figures), but have a much lower rating for Brown.

We have different polls calling different winners, but what is very clear is that Nick Clegg has not been the same sort of runaway winner with the public that he was in the first debate. This was a much closer run thing.

UPDATE: Since they are already cropping up in the comments, these three are the only legitimate instant polls of the debate I am aware of (though other companies may well deliver figures tomorrow morning). Other things, like the Channel 4 website poll, will be open access voodoo polls that will not be representative of wider public opinion… even if you prefer the result.
UPDATE2: The final Angus Reid figures are Clegg 33%, Cameron 32%, Brown 23%

372 Responses to “…but ComRes have Clegg ahead”

Cameron pleasantly surprised me. Fewer buzzwords. Not surprised he is performing respectably. Steady the ship. A runaway Clegg victory allied with repulsion to the Mail’s excesses today could have been fatal to his chances.

Now he just has to work out that not increasing NI does not take money out of the economy – it redistributes on the assumption that government will spend it better, the justification for all taxation. That mean providing things that can only be done by the state, or useful things that the state does better. But taxation is not an end in itself.

The tories will be out in force trying to find evidence that GB authorised them, and if they find even a sniff of proof they thier tame newspapers will spread it all over the front pages if the tratment of NC today is anything to go by.

This will then be picked up by the TV and radio and could potentially be the banana skin that so many have been talking about.

You do not drag up media speculation form the Murdoch press and use the moderator to ask it.

You do not have a platform full of red and blue but no yellow.

If I was a Lib which I will never EVER be, I would be outraged.

A small point for LAbour to gripe about is that the audience seemed either Lib or Tory. But I suppose their are not many reds down that neck of the words.

On a persoanl note, I was very upset that a question as elongated as that attack on the Catholic Church was aired by Rupert Murdoch press. I felt very sorry for all three leaders that they had to lower themsleves to answer it.

I’m afraid I disagree. People weren’t looking for a “messiah” despite what the papers wanted to say. It’s not like there were lots of people with deep convictions of voting for DC who watched last week and saw angels descending from the realms of glory. Clearly what happened was a soft Tory and Lab. vote was convinced that there was a third option – it is now imperative for DC (in particular I’d say) to perform and say “hey, those things that made you uncertain about me before, they don’t actually apply, plus I have better policies.”

You can argue that DC seized his chance on Europe to do the latter, but he didn’t do the former, and I still maintain the balls in his court until he knocks it back over the net.

The first half was very flat and I expect any non-politics nerds would have turned off by 8.30

The rest was fairly even but I think the “lying leaflets” will be the story here: Alex Salmond was saying the same claims are made in leaflets in Brown’s own constituency and that if you can’t trust him to tell the truth about bus passes for pensioners what can you trust him about. It rings true.

I think it is only the Tories fear of being seen as negative that stops them going after Brown as being a liar. I suspect if the polls don’t turn sharply in the next 24 hours things will get nasty and personal at the weekend.

I also think the sight of all those politicians spinning/lying afterwards was frankly offputting, a bit like looking at someone’s entrails while being asked to order the main course.

I’m from the old school . There is an effect which we call “the dead Russian” (aka late surge). Because of political balance requirements LDs (and formerly Liberals) got more media coverage and their poll ratings rose. I think the LDs started from a slightly higher base this time round and this time they have been the story of the election so far. So I am going to stick my neck out and say that the worst they can do is 28% of the vote.

@Liam. Clegg a career politician. How could any LD be a career politician. Until now it was probably won of the least secure jobs ever. A career politician would have swallowed his/her principles and got a safe seat with either Lab or Con.

If that debate is anything to go by, a hung election would appear a near certainty.

Don’t listen to DC about the dangers of a hung parliament. Whilst it would require some changes to made to the structure of political decision making, coaltions of parties run many other countries with great success all over the world

I think Brown scored well on content. He talked about the issues affecting people now, even if the answer being given did not directly relate to the question asked.

I though the Sky coverage was ok, but the questions could have been better. I thought the question about the Popes visit, was a waste of about 5 mins of debating time. Which politician was going to answer that they were going to ban the Pope from entering the country because of his expressed views.

More and more I feel this election was the Conservative party’s last chance to reach beyond their core. I think they’ve failed badly but tonight’s performance will certainly re-inforce their core.

It is not good enough to bang on and on about “families doing the right thing” for example. Not all people are in warm, caring families; many people, in families or not, are unable to do “the right thing” for reasons other than being “welfare-benefit scroungers” as, thankfully only very occassionally, one or two people, even on this forum, have claimed.

Life is more complex than that.

I don’t see Cons going below 33 or above 35 on May 6th. The only question is how the Labour/Lib Dem votes split against them.

as a citezen of Irish Republic…i was ashamed by the queezy wishy washy response to the Popes visit. to UK..(pussyfooting on child abuse etc) ….until Brown unashamedly defended his party achievements on civil partnership…etc etc etc….

I’ve heard a lot about Sky being biased, and although expecting to see it (read: Murdoch), never have, until tonight. Their coverage tonight has been shockingly biased in the tories favour! They’ve almost completely dismissed all the polls, bar Yougov.

Anyway, there were really two questions that this debate needed to answer, and I feel it has.

Can Cameron recover? I think not.
Will the Lib Dem surge be sustained? I think so.

BUT, my opinion is worth nothing. The polls will tell us the real answers, and I look forward to them!

As a side note, I would say that I think the media are struggling to deal with the surge in Lib Dem support. They’re generally very very skeptical about it, and I think this will work to the LD’s favour. We’ve seen a lot of backlashing against the media in recent times, and I think this election could be the ultimate.

When Cameron first became Conservative leader he and Osborne tried hard to secure defections from the Lib Dem Parliamentary party. Their primary targets were Nick Clegg and David Laws I seem to recall. It is to Nick Clegg’s credit that he did not succumb.

@GarryK: Nick Clegg’s objective was, I’m sure, to lock in the converts from the first debate & to grab some more floaters. His performance was probably good enough to do the former, but I’m not sure about the second. We’ll see in the next polls.

when cameron was asked by Nick Clegg to name the ceiling figure on immigration he keeps talking about …… give us a figure dave just a figure..

and he could not respond.. that was the moment Cameron lost an awful lot of votes.. ! and he know it… ! a lot of soft TORIES will look and see he is all talk and no action if he cannot at this stage put a figure on the ceiling… a thousand, a a million Nick asked.. no answer from Cameron ..

TonyFisher: “The interesting outcome is the poll which asked who was the most honest: Clegg won that by a large margin and that will count with some voters who just want an end to corruption in politics.”

I agree to some extent. But it was shown in defending unpopular policies as in immigration.

So that may not help in long run.

But, this time last year, no one predicted Cleggmania despite him coming top. My prediction is that Cameron has steadied his ship. Clegg should not be harmed, and may do very well with middle-class Labour voters. Immigration will play worse with working class Labour voters and all Conservatives.

Brown – again improved but can’t get out of third place (this should have been his best debate surely).

To be honest I thought given that tonight would be about Europe (The Lisbon Treaty), Immigration and Afghanistan it was easily the toughest week for GB. He could have had a nightmare, but patently did not (in my humble opinion)

I thought this was a more even outcome with GB possibly shading it (and I am not a Lab supporter) although the polls are suggesting otherwise

The big question, not answered by DC or GB, is what do we do with c900000 ‘illegals’ already here for many years – NC seems to have a policy but GB & DC don’t appear to – unless I have missed something ?

Nick Clegg did seem to hold his own tonight in the face of what were bound to be difficult questions on immigration and the EU. And the impormptu comments by the “moderator” Adam Boulton mention the headlines in the Telegraph.

Brown did a lot better this time than last time. He did look strong.

I don’t think Cameron did any better than last time.

Lib Dems I think will increase in the poll over the weekend, as well as Labour, Cons will go down, all by a small amount each I think.