Thursday, December 13, 2012

MALDIVES' RELATIONS WITH INDIA & CHINA

B.RAMAN

The decision of the Government of President
Mohammad Waheed of the Maldives to terminate the contract given to a consortium
headed by an Indian company to run the Ibrahim Nasser International Airport of
Male has given rise to speculation that China might have nudged the Maldivian
Government to terminate the contract and that Beijing might ultimately emerge
as the beneficiary of the termination with a Chinese company being made
responsible for the running of the airport.

2. Apart from the fact that the termination of the
contract was preceded by a visit to Male by the Chinese Defence Minister
Gen.Liang Guanglie during the course of visits to Sri Lanka, the Maldives and
India and was followed by a visit to Beijing by Mr.Mohammed Nazim, the
Maldivian Minister for Defence, National Security and Transport, earlier this
week, no other evidence has been forthcoming in corroboration of this
speculation.

3.The fact that Mr.Nazim handled the entire affair
relating to the contract has added to suspicions that his visit to Beijing
might have been utilized by him to brief his Chinese counterpart on the reasons
and implications of the termination and to seek Chinese co-operation in running
the airport.

4. During his stay in Bejing, Mr.Nazim met on
December 11,2012, Gen.Xu Qiliang, Vice-Chairman
of the Central Military Commission of Communist Party of China (CPC), followed
by a metting with Gen.Liang. There are so far no reports of his having met
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao or Mr.Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the
Communist Party of China (CPC), who is also the new Chairman of the CMC.

5.According to the Xinhua news agency, Gen.Xu said
during their meeting that the two countries have in recent years increased
mutual political trust, expanded trade and economic cooperation, diversified
cultural exchanges and set an example for countries to treat each other as
equals and cooperate with sincerity.

6.He added: “The two militaries should continue to
enhance high-level contact, strengthen pragmatic cooperation, expand the scope
of cooperation and upgrade military relations."

7.According to the Xinhua, Mr.Nazim said the Maldives hoped to strengthen communication
and cooperation between the two countries as well as their militaries, jointly
address common challenges and meet opportunities so as to promote the two
countries' relations to a higher level.

8.The Xinhua quoted Gen.Liang as telling Mr.Nazim:
"China has always positively developed its military relations with the
Maldives and hopes to enhance communication and cooperation, promote the
construction of both militaries and safeguard regional peace and stability.”

9.After taking over as the President earlier this
year, President Mohammad WaheedHassan had
visitedUrumqi, the capital of the
Xinjiang province of China, in the first week of September,2012, to attend the
second China-Eurasia Expo.

10. During his stay in Urumqi, he met Chinese Prime
Minister Wen Jiabao,who reportedly assured him that China would provide
assistance to the Maldives to counter
climate change. Hailing the sound bilateral ties over the past four decades
since the establishment of diplomatic relations, Mr.Wen said the two nations had
set up a good example for countries of different sizes that treat each other
equally and conduct cooperation in a friendly way, and that China would
continue supporting the Maldives in economic and social development.

11.Mr.
WaheeddescribedChina as a reliable friend andadded that the Maldives was willing to
increase communications with China in regional and international affairs,
enhance their pragmatic cooperation and join hands with China to deal with
global challenges including climate change, and advance the bilateral
relationship into a new phase.

12.Three agreements were signed on September
2,2012, between the two Governments in the presence of the Maldivian President
and Prime Minister Wen, providing for Chinese assistance worth US $ 500 million.

13.These amounts included the grants under the annual economic
and technical assistance program by the Chinese government, and a preferential
loan of US $ 150 million from the EXIM
Bank of China for the onstruction of 1500 houses in the Maldives.

14.A press note issued by the President’s office in
Male highlighted the fact that this was the first time that agreements had been
signed in the presence of the heads of governments of the two countries and
that the agreements were signed in Urumqi, a Muslim area of China.

15.It is my assessment that China’s immediate and
medium-term interest in the Maldives wll be in establishing a communications
base similar to what it had in the Coco Islands of Myanmar to facilitate
communications with the Chinese anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf and to snoop on
Indian naval communications and monitor Indian satellite and missile launches.

16. Whether the new Government of the Maldives in
its petulance towards India will oblige Beijing remains to be seen. The
Maldives has considerable dependence on India in national security matters. Whenever
Maldivian Governments have faced threats to their internal security and natural
disasters, they had generally sought Indian assistance. The rapidity with which
India can rush to the assistance of the Maldives, China cannot. It will be
unwise and suicidal for any Government in Male to reduce the dependence on India
in national security matters and turn to the Chinese, but one never knows.

17.India needs to closely monitor the developments
without jeopardizing the mutual security assistance programs that have been
built up with the Maldives since 1979. ( 14-12-12)