John...."WWW we know over 800m of the 1.9bn were taken up by 3 II's see myo last night."

Add into that the 10% for the open offer (213m) and that brings the total up to 1bn. We await clarification on whether Norge have participated and of course Jupiter. Should there be any further new "sticky fingered" Institutional involvement then that brings the potential for overhang down even further. For the record, we have now traded over 2bn shares since the placing was announced (at this point for stg 1 there had been only 1.2bn traded....check my 10:06 for full numbers and chronology)

For the record, Jupiter held 6.83% under the old share capital......if they haven't added this will now be 4.69% under the new.....to maintain their percentage they would have to add 150m stock (£22.5m/$30m)Norge 3.47% if they don't add they will drop to 2.38%. To maintain they would have to add 75m stock (£11.5m/$15m).......to increase to a 5% holding they would require 180m stock (£27m/$35m)

Mrs M returned from shopping this morning with a copy of the Times......in the business section there is a nice and for once factual article in relation to both Sirius & highlights the Qatari involvement as a "Sirius backer"......nice to see a report that sees things as a positive for a change.....of course what it doesn't refer to is this:

"YPL is in advanced negotiations with a Middle Eastern purchaser to enter into an offtake agreement for the supply and distribution of POLY4.

"The Company is in advanced negotiations with a state owned Middle Eastern chemical and petrochemical distributor to enter into a memorandum of understanding (an MoU). The MoU provides for the Company and the distributor, along with a Middle Eastern Urea and Ammonia producer, to collaborate with respect to a joint venture opportunity to develop fertiliser blending or manufacturing plants, intended to include the production of NPK, andopportunities to create logistical and distribution hubs in Qatar, the U.K. and/or elsewhere."

WW......alone, the gravity of the Qatari & Norge involvement in my opinion bring far more credibility (and possibly participation) to the straight bonds. The prospects that may evolve from a joint venture such as above more?

I also note from the 2018 End of year report and accounts that CF forewent the part of his bonus alloted for progress on stg 2.

Modsto - but they have so much cash floating about from their LNG that one or two failures are to be expected. Their property portfolio in London is huge and very profitable.

It is good to see them investing in Sirius, and I am sure they have an interest not only in backing successful businesses but also in how the Poly4 could benefit them directly in producing food for themselves. It can only be good for the SP!

LL one persons terrorists are another’s freedom fighters - the Americans and the rest of the World have a vested interest in keeping the Shia and Sunni fighting each other - much as our Foreign Office have kept European countries fighting one another for centuries, to Britain’s benefit.

Should we be concerned that QIA is accused of sponsoring terrorism ?Qatar has been blockaded for over a year by Egypt Saudi and many other gulf states because of terrorism ac usations.—But Dubai is still happy to take their gas LL. Even though they blocked the Qatar based TV stations and stopped Qatar airways using their airspace and so forth. It is certainly tailor made sanctions to suit whichever cloth!

I think the Qataries will have done eough research and investigations into Sirius to realise it looks a safe bet. I’ll follow what they do because if there’s one I’m pretty sure of.....they know more than me. :-)

Slightly different now than ST1 but agree it takes a while for the churn to get through the upset and frustrated holders into new hands... It certainly helps that a good portion of these have gone to some big experienced hands and am sure that when we get confirmation of the successful bond issue (Possibly before the anticipated date) then we will see a significant reduction in sellers and a rise in buyers...

Supply and demand will sort the rest, but as Myo says, if we see any further sharp climbs I will be setting more anchor points...

I did not pay for the all the excess offer (which is about 55% of my holding), I paid only about 18% of my holding. In the end, I got much less than the 18% of my holding. I gather if I paid for all the excess as listed as a placeholder, I might get the full 20%. There might also be a difference among brokers; and may also relate to the holding size.

Just be careful of the SP predictions none of us know so precisely where it will be. IMHO such a large placing takes longer than a few weeks to bed in. Have a look at other such large placings (eg SXX Stage 1 financing and HUR in 2017) and draw your own conclusions.

In my post on the 9th of May, I speculated that everyone may get around 18% of their holding from the Excess Application Facility (EAF), as TS (the CFO) got 18.44% of his holding from the EAF (as shown in the Prospectus).

Now, we have found out that this ends at 20%, which is very close to the percentage given to TS. If SM had made this clearer, more people might have booked the max of their Excess offer and got the discounted shares that takes above 20% of their holding.

Anyway, given the current share price is very close to the open offer price, anyone wants more can still get them from the open market.

PELHAM CAPITAL LTD bought over 353m (5.07% of 6.977b), more than that of Qatar or Capital. Why not in the news?

Why did they cross the threshold on the 22 of May, rather than as Qatar and Captical on/after the 23 of May when the placement shares are formally counted? Did they buy the shares from the open market? If so, it should be a significant news.

Myotosis put the below up about a month ago. I hAve kept it as with all the lows we have had recently it has kept me in a positive frame of mind. Hopefully the positivity will spread lol

RE: Key Actions & Timelines

I have got to the point now where I have accepted where we are and digested the information (I believe), and am now back focussing on key timelines for potential future SP movement based on facts and my personal assumptions.

Everyone will have differing opinions on future SP movement and I&#65533;m not looking to debate that but I would welcome any other key timeline events between now and end of September that I&#65533;ve missed or have misunderstood below, as I&#65533;ll find that really helpful and maybe others may too if they are looking for some structure in their thinking during these turbulent times :)

Key Activity:

1. 21st May - Announcement regarding Open Offer result (PI) & then GM to sign off all resolutions related to funding. This is fairly minor in risk terms as it&#65533;s a given really but is still a positive step forward in terms of risk mitigation once complete.

2. 23rd May - 1.96b shares from Placing & Open Offer Admitted to market @ 15p (90% II & 10% PI). My assumption here is that the 90% of shares going to II&#65533;s will be held until at least Oct because they take a longer term view than retail investors and it is September when we should be significantly derisked, assuming successful Initial Bond take up. I don&#65533;t for one minute believe JPM would have risked their reputation on anything other than very strong certainty they&#65533;ll get this away successfully.

3. 23rd May - Convertible Bonds settled & new bonds issued. The Bid & Ask range is likely to hover around current levels and possibly wider (15-18p) until 23rd May, and probably into early June where major volatility will settle down.

4. 1st/2nd week July (approx) - Quarterly Update. As long as this is positive and there&#65533;s certainly a lot of very positive progress to announce potentially, then SP range should be 18-22p.

5. By 19th Sept - Initial Bonds finalised (this is the major de risking event) and the catalyst for a major re rate and I&#65533;d expect to be in the 25-30p+ range.

6. By end of September - Initial Bonds expected to be issued and RCF facility becomes available, although is not expected to be drawn down until much later, and in tranches.

We all know this share is very sentiment driven and inevitably there will be revised broker targets issued towards the back end of May when key finance actions have been ratified at the GM, and I&#65533;m hoping for excitement building again as we near completion of the Initial Bond confirmation and issuance in Sept.

What a day - I am working on my spreadsheet for X-O analysis and got into the most infernal loop ever!After Stop and end , excel resumed the loop ad finitum! Could not do anything - not even scroll a sheet to see what was on the offending line except through watches.

Stop gave access to the code and reset would exit my function ok. But then the loop would be reactivated again!!!!!

Finally clocked what was happening!The function is used by all my sheets , and my code needs calculation option 'automatic' to be ON. or it does not work. I am using "evaluate" to call a routine - it is an interesting command - but needs automatic it seems!

When I changed the function it was therefore refreshed every sheet with that function! All of them.Howerever, the Activesheet remained as the one that I was focused on.But the arguments in the function call were from other sheets which caused all sorts of problems!I was adding ISA figures in my nominee account and vice versa, depending which one I was focused.

My problem is I cannot be beaten by these things ... always been the same!

To kill the llop I changed the number of arguments for the function so every function call became invalid and then Excel gave in. Better than killing the program and trying to decide which version you want to recover? Quite a neat way out I thought!

Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look.
While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.

This site requires cookies in order to give you the best user experience. By using this site, you are agreeing to the use of cookies.