Friday, March 29, 2013

Plate discipline is harder for hitters to apply against pitchers who consistently pound the strike zone. Increasingly, pitchers are doing that better.

Walk totals decreased in the majors for the third year in a row in 2012, dipping below 15,000 for the first time in a nonstrike season since 1992, when there were only 26 teams. Hitters, it seems, are simply not as feared as they were before testing for performance-enhancing drugs.

“Not that many people are walking - you want to know why?” said Ruben Amaro Jr., the general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies. “Because they’re taught to throw the ball over the plate. And now, whether it’s P.E.D.‘s or whatever the case may be, they may not be as concerned about using the middle of the plate as they have in the past because they know they’re not going to bang it off the wall every time.

“So walks are great, but if a guy’s throwing it down the middle, who wants to walk? Hit that.”

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Bill James (I think it was him) was certainly right when he observed that at the most basic level, strikeout rates have steadily risen throughout baseball history because strikeouts are very helpful for pitchers but not particularly harmful to hitters (when they're traded off for home runs and doubles). Basically, baseball as a whole slowly, steadily came around to understanding Babe Ruth's Epiphany: I actually can swing as hard as I can at every pitch and strike out 150 times a year and still be good, because I'll hit home runs.

And the K rate speed of increase has soared since 1990 because Information Age.

Aaannnddd...in today's Wall Street Journal, they discuss how many more pitchers we have now that throw absolute heat, meaning more swings and misses. More players are going to the mound now, they claim, and the ubiquity of radar guns means there is more focus on upping your speed and optimizing the mechanics to do so.

Bill James (I think it was him) was certainly right when he observed that at the most basic level, strikeout rates have steadily risen throughout baseball history because strikeouts are very helpful for pitchers but not particularly harmful to hitters

I don't see how this can be true, surely pitching and hitting are a zero-sum game. This is like saying "The Sicilian Opening is helpful for white but not particularly harmful for black." If it helps white it harms black and vice versa.

Ah, a rare BTF chess reference. I played the Richter-Rauzer for years as black. Probably should have picked up the Dragon or Najdorf somewhere along the way, but I hated swotting openings. I eventually drifted into the Modern/Pirc/King's Indian so I could focus on the middlegame.

#12 ... it's true because of the reason stated. A batter is choosing between power and contact. Once the batter chooses power, the pitcher gets killed if he allows too much contact.

I suppose it should technically be said this way: controlling for batter power, a K is always a good thing for the pitcher. The same is true for the batter but, for the batter, power goes up with Ks (or Ks up with power).

That probably means that, size of the strike zone aside, this is the batter's choice substantially more than the pitcher's.