Hurricane HUMBERTO

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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
CYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z
SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT. HUMBERTO
HAS ABOUT A DAY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND
COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. IN A FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE CYCLONE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WELL
CLUSTERED...SO THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
HUMBERTO APPEARS TO BE TURNING TO THE RIGHT...NOW MOVING 330/7. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH SOON AND ACCELERATE SOME WHILE IT
MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HUMBERTO IS
LIKELY TO TAKE A HARD LEFT TURN DUE TO IT RUNNING AGAINST A RATHER
STOUT RIDGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. WITH HUMBERTO
BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IN THE LONGER RANGE...IT MAKES SENSE
TO STAY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING EQUATORWARD OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 16.0N 28.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 17.2N 29.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 19.0N 29.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 20.9N 29.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 22.5N 30.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 23.8N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 24.2N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 25.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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