Last-minute NCAA tournament picks

Doug Gottlieb helps you fill out your final bracket, picking the likes of Oregon and Davidson to spring upsets.

Everyone has a bracket, but not everyone gets to (or has to) present the reasons behind their picks. Below are my quickest, easiest to digest, last-minute thoughts on what teams will win and lose on Thursday and Friday.

I will be calling the Salt Lake City region, games you can watch Thursday on TNT. Hit me up on Twitter @gottliebshow as the games are played, but most of all, enjoy the madness.

Louisville Cardinals
vs.
North Carolina A&T Aggies

North Carolina A&T Aggies
Child please.

Colorado State Rams
vs.
Missouri Tigers

Missouri Tigers
Missouri is better in so many different ways. The Tigers are better at the point, especially as
Dorian Green
returns from a sprained ankle for CSU. They are more experienced, with
Alex Oriakhi
having won a national title as a starter.
Phil Pressey
and
Laurence Bowers
have both played well and deep into the dance. But CSU's Green makes huge jumpers,
Colton Iverson
is a load inside and CSU starts five seniors who play hard and well together. I will take the Rams.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
vs.
Oregon Ducks

Marcus Smart
is awesome. Oklahoma State is a dynamic offensive team and Oregon crashes the glass, can press and turn them over and is an older group. I'm going to take Dana Altman's club over Travis Ford's even though I would contend that Ford's club has more talent. If OSU recognizes the defensive changes, then the Cowboys can win. Oregon uses a mixture of presses that are designed to keep you out of transition, and I think Altman will zone OSU a bunch.

New Mexico State Aggies
vs.
Saint Louis Billikens

If NMSU had
Tyrone Watson
, then maybe.
Sim Bhullar
is 7-foot-5 -- I said 7-foot-5. Bhullar is fairly athletic, can really block shots, but he runs just OK and St. Louis will run him.
Bandja Sy
is a terrific slasher, but he just doesn't shoot it all that well from 3, and I think the Billikens' defense will make NMSU make shots it's not comfortable taking. Marvin Menzies is back in the tournament and the former Rick Pitino assistant will fall to the age, experience and toughness of St. Louis. Look out for
Cody Ellis
as a face-up four, the Billikens' depth and watch also for
Jordair Jett
off the bench -- he didn't play well in the A-10 tournament and they still won.

St. Mary's Gaels
vs.
Memphis Tigers

Memphis Tigers
Memphis has played very well late in the season and much of that is the competitiveness of
Joe Jackson
. Jackson may have missed clinching a free throw vs. Southern Miss, but he also got several big steals, assists and buckets to win the game for Memphis. His matchup vs.
Matthew Dellavedova
is a unique one. Delly has size, experience and patience in using ball screens, while Jackson is just lightning-in-a bottle explosive. With
Jorden Page
out with an injury, I just do not think SMC has the weapons to beat Memphis. Tigers will roll.

Michigan State Spartans
vs.
Valparaiso Crusaders

Valparaiso Crusaders
The way to beat Michigan State in my opinion is with quick guards who can frustrate
Keith Appling
or zone the Spartans. Valpo does one of those two -- my guess would be that Bryce Drew will zone Sparty a good deal and make
Branden Dawson
,
Adreian Payne
and
Denzel Valentine
hit jumpers while shading Appling and
Travis Trice
. I think Michigan State wins, but I'm not convinced it will be a blowout.

Cincinnati Bearcats
vs.
Creighton Bluejays

Creighton Bluejays
Offense vs. defense. It isn't that UC can't score, well OK ... it is that the Bearcats cannot consistently score.
Sean Kilpatrick
has a terrific all-around scoring game and when healthy
Cashmere Wright
is a good second option as a deep jump shooter, but the Bearcats went to a small lineup mid-year last year and their "power forwards" haven't been as good this year. Creighton has
Doug McDermott
and does not have a great point guard. I think UC smothers McDermott and wins a game in the 50s. Yes, I know that goes against my bracket -- it is just what I am feeling.

Duke Blue Devils
vs.
Albany Great Danes

Albany Great Danes
Duke lost as a 2 seed last year but will not lose this year. This Duke team executes its offense quite well, unlike last year's team. Still,
Rasheed Sulaimon
is a freshman and
Quinn Cook
has overachieved much of the year, so let's not make Duke into some juggernaut. This Duke team is more like Coach K's early Duke teams, better as one than individually. Duke beats Albany.

Gonzaga Bulldogs
vs.
Southern Jaguars

Southern Jaguars
The Zags are in for a difficult game on offense as Southern can really defend. GU won't lose, but the Jaguars are long and very well coached defensively.
Malcolm Miller
averages 15.5 ppg and he only plays 26 minutes a game.
Derick Beltran
is SU's go-to guy and Gonzaga has struggled with big scoring guards in the past. Take GU, but it may not be the 40-point romp you would expect.

Pittsburgh Panthers
vs.
Wichita State Shockers

Wichita State Shockers
Pitt will look in the mirror and see a smaller version of itself. Neither is a great scoring team, but both can really defend and compete.
Talib Zanna
and
Steven Adams
are just so massive and athletic, I don't see the Shockers scoring a bunch in the lane. Pitt has
Tray Woodall
and if the Panthers can get him some looks, they win a very tight game in the 50s.

Ole Miss Rebels
vs.
Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin Badgers
While there is a ton of attention paid to
Marshall Henderson
,
Murphy Holloway
is the bigger key for Ole Miss. Holloway was fantastic vs.
Florida Gators
and will have to be again vs. Wisconsin. Rebounding is the biggest key for Wisconsin as Henderson is a high-volume, low-percentage shooter, and I think Wisconsin's pace will bother Ole Miss. I do believe this is a very close game, one Ole Miss will have an opportunity to win, but Wisconsin's
Jared Berggren
is a tough cover and likely will get Ole Miss in some foul trouble. Take Bucky.

Kansas State Wildcats
vs.
La Salle Explorers

La Salle Explorers
La Salle shot the eyes out of it on Wednesday night in Dayton and will have to do the same in Kansas City on Friday night. Obviously, there will be a ton of purple in the stands and K-State matches up well to the four-guard look of La Salle, since they went to
Shane Southwell
at the four a couple of months ago.
Rodney McGruder
is really good and he can post up some in this game. I'll take fresh legs over tired legs; K-State pulls away late.

Arizona Wildcats
vs.
Belmont Bruins

Belmont Bruins
Arizona has a unique toughness about it.
Mark Lyons
exudes competitiveness and fire as he is back in the NCAA tournament with a different team in successive years.
Solomon Hill
seems much more comfortable at the face-up 4 than at the 3, but Belmont is not affected by Zona's small lineup.
Ian Clark
is a flat-out, dead-eye 3-point shooter and
Kerron Johnson
leads incredibly well. My biggest question is who does
Kaleb Tarczewski
or
Brandon Ashley
guard?
Trevor Noack
as a face-up 5 is a hard cover for the Zona bigs. I think Zona wins, but it will be a barnburner. Look for Lyons to win it late in a mano-a-mano showdown with Johnson.

New Mexico Lobos
vs.
Harvard Crimson

Harvard Crimson
Harvard was supposed to be down this year as its top two returners missed the season amid a university-wide cheating scandal.
Wesley Saunders
is having an outstanding year as a sophomore helped in large part by freshman point guard
Siyani Chambers
. Chambers is a very good penetrate-and-pitch point guard, and Harvard will look to use Saunders and
Laurent Rivard
from three early and at the end of the shot clock. New Mexico may have to go back to its smaller lineup with
Chad Adams
at the 4 as
Cameron Bairstow
is more of an interior defender. I think Saunders has a hard time with the length of
Tony Snell
, and Harvard struggles with
Alex Kirk
popping jumpers off ball screens. New Mexico by around 10.

Iowa State Cyclones
vs.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame must contain
Tyrus McGee
off the bench and keep
Will Clyburn
out of transition. It will be interesting to see ND match up with the shooting of Iowa State.
Georges Niang
can play post defense and hit 3s as an undersized 5 man for the Cyclones. Notre Dame has a terrific backcourt that let one get away last year in the tourney. I think ND wins on the backs of
Jerian Grant
and
Eric Atkins
.
Jack Cooley
will be forced to move his feet out on the floor, and I do believe that ISU can win if it gets ahead early, but I am going to take ND. My biggest concern for ND is who guards Clyburn. The Irish by 2.

Ohio State Buckeyes
vs.
Iona Gaels

Iona's
Lamont Jones
is going to go right at
Aaron Craft
, and
Sean Armand
is an unreal shooter. But Iona plays fast and Ohio State will be able to use its smaller lineup against the Gaels.
Shannon Scott
has brought a ton to the table for Ohio State playing alongside Craft, and
Sam Thompson
can be terrific as a pogo stick 4 man in their first game. Buckeyes. Easy.

Kansas Jayhawks
vs.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

KU has had its issues in the past, and WKU does not present enough of them. In KC take KU, easy. While I believe a 16 will eventually upset a one seed, I also bet it will be the best team from a bad conference. WKU is simply not close to being the best from the Sun Belt.

Villanova Wildcats
vs.
North Carolina Tar Heels

UNC has gone small for the last couple of months, and it seems to have energized the Tar Heels. Villanova will press you and smack at you and get the ball to
JayVaughn Pinkston
, who has been better off taking fewer 3s. Also of interest is the matchup of frosh point guards
Ryan Arcidiacono
and
Marcus Paige
. Paige is a far better passer, but Arcidiacono has scored better. I'll take UNC and
James Michael McAdoo
.

VCU Rams
vs.
Akron Zips

Akron Zips
If
Alex Abreu
was playing, this would be a fantastic match-up. Instead, Akron has to do its best without the suspended point guard and hope it can manage against VCU's "Havoc" defense. This is a great draw for VCU. Rams big.

Michigan Wolverines
vs.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Premiere matchup at point guard.
Trey Burke
is a freak off the high and side ball screen. Michigan loves to run and can pummel you in transition with deep 3s and the transition scoring game of
Tim Hardaway Jr.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
spaces the floor well off of
Nate Wolters
' penetration and kick-outs for 3. The Jackrabbits are seventh nationally in 3-point percentage and ninth in 3-point makes -- a scary combination. I think this favors Michigan, which loves to shoot 3s and play fast, but I do not know that for sure. Let's take Michigan, but cautiously.

UCLA Bruins
vs.
Minnesota Golden Gophers

Larry Drew II
has had a turnaround season,
Shabazz Muhammad
has shown his ability to score in the post and from 3, and
Travis Wear
is a tough matchup as a face-up five man. On the other hand,
Jordan Adams
is out for the year and UCLA simply does not have enough shooting without him. Minnesota has lost 11 of its last 16 games. That said, this is a bad matchup for the Bruins with poor mojo and the cloud of Ben Howland still fighting for his job even with a league championship.

Florida Gators
vs.
Northwestern State Demons

Florida defends with pure unbridled aggression. All the Gators' losses but one have been in single digits this year, but this won't be added to that group against the nation's highest-scoring team. Chomp. Chomp. Chomp.

San Diego State Aztecs
vs.
Oklahoma Sooners

SDSU struggles against two-post teams, which Oklahoma is. On the other hand, Lon Kruger is 5-13 vs. SDSU from his
UNLV Rebels
days. The Aztecs weren't healthy much of the conference season, but when healthy they have big shot-makers like
Chase Tapley
, and
Jamaal Franklin
is a really tough cover. San Diego State is living a bit on reputation, but its actual substance is much better than OU's of late. SDSU wins a close game on the back of Tapley and
Xavier Thames

Georgetown Hoyas
vs.
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
There is a lot of love for Georgetown, but I'm not ready to go all in on the Hoyas. Their hand-checking will get them in foul trouble and their lack of scoring may be their downfall. FGCU has a terrific ball-handling point guard
Brett Comer
. The Eagles won't win, but don't expect a pasting either.
Otto Porter
has been better when he tries to take over games, and he will have to take over this one.

Indiana Hoosiers
vs.
James Madison Dukes

JMU was impressive, especially considering the suspension for the first half of leading scorer
Rayshawn Goins
. Indiana is a team you must keep out of transition, and though its halfcourt offense has become more focused on getting
Cody Zeller
the ball, it is still something the Hoosiers can do more of. JMU pushes Indiana early as playing a game loosens you up in tournament play, but IU finds its form and wins handily.

NC State Wolfpack
vs.
Temple Owls

Temple Owls
NC State likes to play fast, really fast. Temple, not so much. Last year it just felt like NCSU was jelling and so its seed was irrelevant; this year, it's hard to figure. When the Owls walk on the floor you would swear Temple has no chance, which is exactly why they will win. Like the VCU game, Temple will not be rushed and its defense will make NC State make jumpers. I'm going to predict the Wolfpack don't make enough. Take Temple.

UNLV Rebels
vs.
California Golden Bears

UNLV already beat Cal at Cal, but both teams are very different than in their first meeting. In the game, one in which
Mike Moser
had been hurt earlier in the game (dislocated elbow), UNLV won at the buzzer on an offensive rebound. Since then Cal has changed its offense to a dribble-drive motion, something Mike Montgomery has never previously done. UNLV has shrunk its bench and is not trying to play Moser at the 3; instead Dave Rice is rotating Moser,
Khem Birch
and
Anthony Bennett
for two spots while doing the same at the guards with only
Justin Hawkins
getting most of the burn off the bench. The Bears' new offense makes
Tyrone Wallace
and Cal's big men more effective, and it will cause UNLV to switch on the perimeter and Cal should be able to get better looks. Based on talent and improvement, UNLV should win. Bennett, Birch,
Bryce Dejean-Jones
and
Katin Reinhardt
are all playing better individually, but Cal can win if it gets into the UNLV defense. I'll take the Rebels in a hard-fought win.

Syracuse Orange
vs.
Montana Grizzlies

Montana Grizzlies
Montana's
Will Cherry
-- a Nor Cal kid who played for the
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Soldiers AAU team -- can get into the lane and make shots.
Kareem Jamar
is not as good of a shooter as Cherry, but he handles the ball just as much for the Griz. Montana lost leading scorer
Mathias Ward
to a foot injury, but Cherry is the Grizzlies' best player. Jamar being from Los Angeles, Cherry being from Oakland, one would expect the Grizzlies to play above their level in a San Jose homecoming. But Montana plays fast and you cannot play fast against Syracuse unless you press. Additionally Cuse's zone is long and I would expect the Orange to pressure all jump shooters. Syracuse has the 17th-best 3-point field-goal percentage defense in the country. Syracuse wins handily.

Butler Bulldogs
vs.
Bucknell Bison

Bucknell Bison
Mike Muscala
is a stud, part of a veteran Bucknell group that starts three seniors and two juniors. Muscala is good enough to play essentially anywhere and will collect a nice check next year, stateside or abroad. Butler is here, but quietly had a slightly disappointing season in its conference. Losing three times to St. Louis and badly at VCU shows some of the deficiencies with a team that is one of two in this field to beat two one seeds (Indiana, Gonzaga). The challenge is whether or not
Rotnei Clarke
can shoot a high percentage and if
Andrew Smith
can come to play and not get into foul trouble. You can either turn Butler over or just try to bully them -- neither is the strength of Bucknell. A moderately close win for Butler.

Marquette Golden Eagles
vs.
Davidson Wildcats

Marquette was crazily overseeded as a 3 seed and Davidson was underseeded as a 14. Davidson was sped up last year but seems better with dual ball handlers this year.
JP Kuhlman
struggled at times early this season, but that was due to a sprained ankle. Now with Kuhlman and
Nik Cochran
, combined with Southern Conference player of the year
Jake Cohen
, I think they are ready for Marquette's pressure. Take Davidson.

Illinois Fighting Illini
vs.
Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado Buffaloes
Illinois is the other team in this field, along with Butler, that beat both Indiana and Gonzaga. Illinois beat GU on the road, and Butler beat the Zags without Rotnei Clarke at home. Illinois is a tough team to guard as it spreads you way out and attacks with guards. Colorado has two terrific players many have not heard of in
Spencer Dinwiddie
, who might have the best mustache in the tourney, and
Andre Roberson
, the best rebounder in the country. Roberson can guard
Tyler Griffey
on the perimeter as he is a dynamic athlete.
Brandon Paul
can flat out win a game on his own, but I'm guessing he will not. Take CU.

Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes
vs.
Pacific Tigers

Pacific Tigers
Pacific is no walk in the park. The Tigers have been together for two years and are mostly junior college transfers on what will be retiring coach Bob Thomason's last team. Miami is terrific, but this group has never won a tournament game together. Pacific will make the Hurricanes grind. This one should be close for a half or three quarters of the game. Miami by 10-15.