You can
already drive on a street named
Tanque Verde to a restaurant named
Casa Vallarta for a meal of
carne seca and if you set your
car radio to scan, you will hear voices speaking English, Spanish or
a mixture of both.

The forecast for the future?
Es el mismo (the same),
only más
rápido.

Ethnic minorities, led by a phenomenal growth in the
Hispanic population, are poised to surpass the number of Anglos in
Arizona in the near future.

It's happened in Texas, where slightly more than half
of its 22.5 million residents are Hispanic - and in California, New
Mexico, Hawaii and the District of Columbia, according to Census
Bureau estimates released today.

Arizona and four other states - Maryland,
Mississippi, Georgia and New York - may be next in line with
minority populations of about 40 percent.

Muchos
Hispanics, 1.6 million, dwarfed all other minority groups. The
second-largest ethnic group is made up of American Indians and
Alaskan Natives at nearly 256,000. Blacks placed third with about
178,000.

State demographer Samuel Colón said no one knows for
sure when or if Arizona Hispanics will become the majority. But all
indicators - including a 21.5 percent increase in the Hispanic
population since the 2000 census - point in that direction.

Not a sorpresa
for Arizonans, who for years have seen the Hispanic presence grow.

The gradual shift in demographics already is having
an impact - from education to politics and from health care to
advertising.

In the coming years, you can expect more of the same.
Plenty of it en
español.

Minority-majority states

● Current states:

● California: 55.5 percent

● Hawaii: 76.7

● New Mexico: 56.5

● Texas: 50.2

● Next up:

● Arizona: 38.9

● Georgia: 39.8

● Maryland: 40.2

● Mississippi: 40.1

● New York: 38.9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Money

Hispanic buying power more than doubled in a decade to $504
billion in 2000 and is expected to nearly double again by 2009,
according to the Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of
Georgia.

In Tucson, where Spanish was the first language to replace the Pima
dialects spoken by earlier settlers, our cultural reshaping has been
evolutionary, but in a society whose culture is so strongly shaped by
marketing, expect acceleration.

Spanish-language media and advertising make up "a strong niche"
said Earl de Berge, head of Behavior Research Center in Phoenix, but 80
percent of the Hispanic market speaks English and "58 percent have a
strong capacity to operate in both languages."

"These are not just poor folks trying to get along. They are affluent
and they are the most upwardly mobile of all groups. They are very
active mall users, purchasers in just about every category.

"They're going to influence trends, and because they still have a great
affection for their language and culture, it will have a big impact on
the rest of the society," de Berge added. "It is already affecting music
and entertainment." – Tom Beal

Music

While many of Tucson's smaller music venues have yet to catch
on, larger performance spaces such as Casino Del Sol's AVA have fully
embraced the burgeoning Hispanic market.

In 2004, Casino Del Sol contracted the local event company Principle
Solutions Group to help diversify acts, with a particular focus on shows
for Hispanic consumers.

The AVA has since increased its number of Latin shows dramatically, said
Ray Flores Jr., who runs PSG with promoter John Frias. Half of the
venue's 26 performances this year have fallen under the all-encompassing
Latino music category, ranging from the Regional Mexican banda style to
rock en español. - Gerald Gay

Faith

Minority influence already has had a big effect on religion in
Tucson, especially in the Catholic Church, the largest organized faith
group in Tucson and the United States.

● At least 95 percent of local Catholic churches now offer Spanish
services. That's up from about 15 percent a decade ago.

● About 40 percent of the diocese's 350,000 Catholics are Hispanic.

● The local diocese also has populations of Korean, Vietnamese and
African parishioners. This year, the diocese will hold an "Asia Day."

Jehovah's Witnesses have been ordering an increasing number of
Spanish-language Bibles and literature during the last five years, said
a local church elder. The church is also offering more Spanish-language
religious events.

Other denominations, including Assemblies of God, Baptist, Disciples of
Christ and Foursquare Gospel, also have local services for
Spanish-speakers, as do local branches of the Church of Jesus Christ of
Latter-day Saints.

Mainline Protestant denominations, which have been historically Anglo,
have experienced shrinking memberships both nationally and locally.
- Stephanie Innes

Politics

More Hispanics will register to vote. More Hispanics will run
for public office. More Hispanics will get elected.

"Politics will be different," predicted Pima County Record F. Ann
Rodriguez, a Democrat who in 1988 became the first Hispanic to win a
countywide elective post.

"People will educate themselves about the political process, they'll get
involved and candidates will come forward," she said.

De Berge of the Behavior Research Center sees the surging ranks of
Hispanics moving Arizona politics toward the center. But GOP pollster
Margaret Kenski of Tucson, noting President Bush's success in the last
election, isn't so sure.

"Historically, one would assume an advantage to the Democrats," she
said. "But it's more complex an issue than that."

Rodriguez said that is why "both parties need to re-evaluate what
they're doing" to attract voters.- C.J. Karamargin

Education

Hispanics already are the majority in many of Tucson school
districts, including Sunnyside Unified, where they are 87.33 percent of
the total student population.Non-Hispanic whites constitute only 5.89
percent of the student body.

Non-Anglo teachers make up only 37 percent of the 1,142 certified
teachers in the district, but Sunnyside officials aren't concerned. The
district believes hiring teachers who can speak the language and relate
to the majority of the students is more important than looking for
teachers with dark skin.

"We want to recruit people who understand students, who know and
understand the cultures and where students are coming from," said
Sunnyside spokeswoman Monique Soria. "But we do look for bilingual
people. We need that." - Jeff Commings

Housing

Hispanics are buying more homes than ever, and the housing
industry is taking notice. Case in point: the recent launching of KB
Casa (www.kbcasa.com), a Spanish-language Web site of KB Home, one of
the nation's largest home builders.

John Bremond, president of KB's Tucson division, called it a necessary
step. "We certainly recognize that in many of our markets, if not most,
we are dealing with Hispanic or Latino buyers."

Serving Hispanic home buyers sometimes means offering bigger homes to
accommodate extended family members, he said. "We are building homes
that include up to six bedrooms."