Brian Walton's news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals (TM) and their minor league system

How much will it take for the Cardinals to keep Wainwright?

There are at least two other pitchers that had to wake up happy on Wednesday morning over the new six-year, $144 million offer that Cole Hamels has accepted from the Philadelphia Phillies. One is Zack Greinke of the Brewers, who becomes the top free agent target to hit the market this fall.

The other is St. Louis Cardinal Adam Wainwright. Though the 30-year-old (he turns 31 on August 30th) has another year-plus on his current contract, seeing the prices for pitching escalate across the game has to make him feel very good.

With Chris Carpenter’s distinguished career nearing its end, soon Wainwright will be the sole anchor of the Cardinals staff. As good as the prospects coming up through the minor league system are expected to be, the staff needs a leader.

There seems no doubt that Wainwright is the man. The only question is how much money it will take to retain his services. Specifically, will the Cardinals pay $20 million per season?

Let’s look at some recent extensions of pitchers’ contracts across MLB.

Pitcher

Date

Yrs

Guarantee

AAV

Start yr

Start age

End yr

End age

NTC

Career WAR

Notes

Adam Wainwright

TBD

2014

32

17.9

Zack Greinke

TBD

2013

29

28.2

Cole Hamels

7/25/2012

6

$144MM

$24MM

2013

29

2018

35

partial

25.7

7th yr vest to $162MM

Matt Cain

4/3/2012

6

$127.5MM

$21.25MM

2012

27

2017

33

full

27.9

7th yr vest to $141MM

CC Sabathia

10/31/2011*

8

$191MM

$23.875MM

2009

28

2016

35

full

50

9th yr opt to $211MM

Johan Santana

2/2/2008

6

$137.5MM

$22.92MM

2008

29

2013

35

full

49.5

7th yr opt to $162.5MM

* date additional guaranteed year added to existing deal

Note that Wainwright will be 32 years of age in 2014, when his next contract would take effect. That is considerably older than the ages of the highest-paid pitchers in the game when they signed their big deals – all in their late 20s. Also note that none of the four $20 million pitchers will be under contract beyond age 36 (even with vesting options).

Further, refer to the career WAR column. Those totals are as of today, so the pitchers (other than Hamels) had lower WARs when their deals were done. Wainwright’s contribution is much less, though he has potentially a year and a third to pad his total before becoming eligible for free agency.

This might take Wainwright’s years and dollars down a bit, but may also increase his urgency to ensure he secures his last big contract this time around (vs. signing a short-term deal).

Being cognizant of the other contracts, a four-year guaranteed extension with a relatively easily attainable fifth-year option seems reasonable. That would cover his ages 32-36 years and the 2014-2018 seasons.

$20 million per year would seem to be the minimum, making the offer at least $100 million, $80-plus million guaranteed. No-trade protection (see NTC in table above) would likely be expected and granted.

What do you think?

How many guaranteed years would you offer Wainwright (starting in 2014)?

Hard to be a downgrade compared to Marte. I was in favor of him getting a chance after the nice job at Mamphis last year. He’s got nothing to comlain about.

Maybe we’ll see Fuentes and Hanley square off. Has-been day at the ballpark.

Now might be the time to extend Wainy while there is still some question about his future level of performance. If he mows them down all second half, which he might, . . . .gulp.
The idea being that even if he turns out to be less than he was, so what. He’s a horse, an inspiration, a leader, and exemplifies Cardinal baseball.

There is actually growing internal support for putting Taveras on the table as an option for Aug/Sept THIS season if the club continues to struggle offensively.

Taveras is a raw talent but his bat projects now. Some question whether he is a fit for CF. It’s a legitimate concern. I don’t expect it to happen. But It’s received a hearing within the organization, something I wouldn’t have expected three weeks ago.

Craig is not an adept fielder, an element often overlooked by those driven by a fantasy league mentality. Craig does rake.

To clarify, Strauss’s “I don’t expect it to happen” was referring to Taveras getting called up this year, not a comment on Taveras projecting as a CF. As to the latter, he only said its a legitimate concern.

Tyler has been part of the Cards org for a long time, and I’ve never heard any negative reports about how he interacts with staff or players. He’s just a lost cause when it comes to the show. It would be in keeping with how the Cards org does things to try to preserve his dignity in the process of getting him off the active roster. Like last year with Miller. Let someone else show him the door.