The rotation was always going to be a priority this offseason and the Yankees have added one of the better lefties in the game. The Yankees have acquired James Paxton from the Mariners for top prospect Justus Sheffield and prospects Erik Swanson and Dom Thompson-Williams, both teams announced. It is a done deal. Officially official.

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto indicated the team is ready to rebuild a few weeks ago — his term was “re-imagine” the roster — and soon thereafter he shipped Mike Zunino to the Rays. The Paxton rumors started up soon thereafter and the Yankees were a logical landing spot given their need for rotation help and the perpetual need for quality lefties in Yankee Stadium.

Paxton turned 30 earlier this month and he threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA (3.24 FIP) with 32.3% strikeouts and 6.5% walks this past season. He is under control as an arbitration-eligible player another two years — MLBTR projects a $9M salary in 2019 and that’ll probably jump to $15M or so in 2020 — so he’s not a rental. He’s not dirt cheap, but he’s not a rental.

Here’s my Scouting the Market post on Paxton, so check that out for everything you need to know about that guy. Long story short, he’s really good and he throws a lot of fastballs. The Yankees are an anti-fastball team, but, given the way the Yankees treated J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn last year, I imagine they’ll continue letting Paxton throw all those fastballs. That’s how he gets his outs. No need to change.

The Yankees now have four starters penciled in for next season: Paxton, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and CC Sabathia in whatever order. Sonny Gray is still on the roster but he is as good as gone. He’s getting traded, maybe soon. Their rotation depth is Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chance Adams. There’s still a lot of offseason to go, however.

Even with Paxton and his projected salary on board, the Yankees have about $25M remaining under next year’s $206M luxury tax threshold. That is roughly the annual of cost of one (1) Patrick Corbin. Also, depending how the Gray trade works out, the Yankees may free up $9M or so in that deal. We’ll see. Right now, the Yankees still have some money to spend and one rotation spot to address, plus other stuff (Didi Gregorius replacement, bullpen etc.).

As for the players going to Seattle, Sheffield is clearly the headliner. He took over as the organization’s obvious No. 1 prospect once Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar graduated to MLB, and MLB.com currently ranks him as the 31st best prospect in baseball. The Yankees originally acquired Sheffield from the Indians in the Andrew Miller trade back in 2016. More than two years ago already? Geez.

(Presswire)

Sheffield, 22, had a 2.48 ERA (2.98 FIP) with 25.9% strikeouts and 10.5% walks in 116 innings across Double-A and Triple-A this past season. He made his MLB debut in September and it didn’t go well (2.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K) but who cares. Countless pitchers have struggled in their first 2.2 big league innings. Sheffield’s a great prospect, but you have to give something good to get a guy like Paxton.

The 25-year-old Swanson came over in the Carlos Beltran trade and MLB.com ranked him as the No. 22 prospect in the system before the trade. I haven’t started sketching out my annual top 30 prospects list yet but Swanson would’ve made it, likely somewhere in that 20-25 range. He threw 121.1 innings with a 2.66 ERA (2.91 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts and 6.1% walks at mostly Triple-A this year.

Thompson-Williams, 23, was the Yankees’ fifth round pick in 2016. He broke out this past season, hitting .299/.363/.546 (157 wRC+) with a farm system leading 22 home runs in 100 Single-A games. Thompson-Williams hit six homers in 120 games from 2016-17. He didn’t rank among the team’s top 30 prospects before the trade, per MLB.com. I don’t think I would’ve had him in next year’s preseason top 30 but it’s hard to say for sure at this point.

On the 40-man roster front, the Yankees will end up saving a spot here. Paxton takes Sheffield’s spot and Swanson is Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter, and I imagine he would’ve been added to the 40-man prior to tomorrow’s protection deadline. A big league ready (or close to it) pitcher with those Triple-A numbers is an obvious protection candidate. Now the Yankees won’t have to add him to the 40-man.

I’m not going to lie, I thought it would be much more painful to acquire Paxton. It’s one top prospect and two depth prospects, basically. Last year’s Gerrit Cole trade, which was much more quantity over quality, may’ve skewed the trade market a bit. Cole and Paxton both had two years of control at the time of their trades and neither fetched multiple top prospects. My first thought after seeing both trades was “wow, that’s light.”

Paxton has hardly been a workhorse in his career — he’s never thrown as many as 175 innings in a season and only three times has he thrown 160 innings — but the innings he does provide tend to be very good. The Yankees needed a major upgrade to their rotation, not a few tweaks, and Paxton does represent that big upgrade. Or at least I hope he does. Getting Sonny Grayed again would stink.

Baseball’s finances are broken. Despite record high revenue revenues, three large market teams (Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees) are reportedly going to limit their spending to some degree this offseason — the Cubs had to trade Drew Smyly and his $7M salary to pick up Cole Hamels’ option — and a three-time division winner (Indians) is said to be open to trading veterans to get their payroll in order. Teams that should be spending aren’t.

Furthermore, the Seattle Mariners, a team that appears capable of competing for a Wild Card spot next year, is embarking on a rebuild. They have the longest active postseason drought in North American sports — they haven’t been to the playoffs since Ichiro’s rookie year in 2001 — and, rather than make a push to win while Robinson Cano and other well-paid veterans are still productive, the Mariners are going to rebuild.

“We’re open-minded to different ways we can get better,” said GM Jerry Dipoto to Greg Johns and Maria Guardado at the GM Meetings when asked about a rebuild. “But what we’re hoping to achieve is to re-imagine our roster to look at it in terms of what is our quickest path to a championship club … If that means in 2019 we field as competitive a team as we can while earmarking and gathering talent, we’re not looking to rip our club down.”

The rebuild — sorry, the “re-imagining” — started last week when Seattle shipped Mike Zunino to the Rays for Mallex Smith. Zunino is a very flawed hitter, no doubt, but he’s a quality defender and a solid player at a hard-to-fill position. Trading two years of Zunino for four of Smith is not a move a team trying to contend next year would make. It is much easier to find an outfielder like Mallex Smith in free agency than it is a catcher like Mike Zunino.

Anyway, with the roster transition underway in Seattle, reports indicate the next Mariner on the move could be left-hander James Paxton. The pitching-needy Yankees have interest in Paxton and, according to Ken Rosenthal, they’ve already discussed him with the Mariners. Other teams are in the mix too, of course, including the Astros. Does Paxton make sense for the Yankees? Well, of course, but how much sense? Let’s dig in.

Background

Paxton is a 6-foot-4 southpaw who took an interesting path to the big leagues. He grew up in Vancouver and played his college ball at the University of Kentucky. The Blue Jays selected Paxton with the 37th overall pick in the 2009 draft — that was the compensation pick they received for the Yankees signing A.J. Burnett — but were unable to get him to agree to a contract prior to the signing deadline.

The NCAA declared Paxton ineligible for his senior year at Kentucky because he used an agent (Scott Boras) to negotiate on his behalf with Toronto, so he spent the spring of 2010 with the independent Grand Prairie AirHogs in Texas. The Mariners selected him in the fourth round of the 2010 draft and he started his climb up the minor league ladder. Paxton, who turned 30 last week, owns a career 3.42 ERA (3.13 FIP) in 582.1 big league innings.

Performance

After making his MLB debut in September 2013, Paxton went up-and-down a bit and battled injuries the next two seasons. It wasn’t until 2016 that he really established himself as a legitimate big league starter, with these last two years cementing him as an above-average pitcher. He’s not in the Chris Sale/Clayton Kershaw class of lefties, but he is quite good. Here are Paxton’s last three seasons:

IP

ERA

FIP

K%

BB%

GB%

HR/9

RHB wOBA

LHB wOBA

2016

121

3.79

2.80

22.9

4.7

48.1

0.67

.303

.319

2017

136

2.98

2.61

28.3

6.7

44.9

0.60

.273

.210

2018

160.1

3.76

3.24

32.3

6.5

39.6

1.29

.268

.377

Paxton has traded some ground balls for strikeouts — that seems to be a very common trend throughout baseball as pitchers emphasize strikeouts and hitters emphasize getting the ball airborne — and this year there was a huge uptick in home runs. Prior to this season Paxton was a steady 0.60-ish HR/9 guy with an 8%-ish HR/FB rate. This year those numbers basically doubled. A graph:

You can partially blame the Yankees for the uptick in homers. They faced Paxton twice this past season and took him deep four times in eleven innings. Would’ve been five had Mitch Haniger not robbed Giancarlo Stanton of a homer. In all seriousness, that’s a large increase in home runs. The jump in HR/FB rate indicates it’s not as simple as “more fly balls equal more homers” either. The fly balls were leaving the yard more often.

The numbers against left-handed batters this season appear to be straight sample size noise. Paxton faced only 112 lefties in 2018 — that was roughly 20% of all batters he faced — and only 63 of those 112 lefties put the ball in play. Those 63 balls in play produced a .492 (!) BABIP despite a hard contact rate in line with his career norms. Paxton’s expected wOBA against lefties from 2016-18: .315, .242, .265. Compare that to the actual wOBAs in the table above.

Paxton’s home run problem did include lefties — he allowed three homers to those 112 lefty batters this season after allowing three homers to the 308 lefties he faced from 2013-17 — but again, it’s a small sample. I am okay with chalking up this year’s issues with same-side hitters to sample size weirdness. Sixty-three balls in play and a .492 BABIP? Come on. The overall home run issue is another matter. That I wouldn’t be so quick to brush aside.

Current Stuff

In this era of declining fastball usage — the Yankees have taken it to the extreme with their anti-fastball philosophy, but, generally speaking, fastball usage has declined around the league — Paxton is a throwback. He throws his mid-90s four-seamer roughly 60% of the time and his 88-90 mph cutter around 20% of the time, so that’s approximately 80% fastballs. A low-80s curveball is his breaking ball. Here’s his pitch selection over the years:

Paxton has more or less shelved his slider and changeup and hey, it’s working for him. Oddly enough, he uses the cutter more against lefties than righties. Going into this I assumed he used the cutter to pitch righties inside a la CC Sabathia, but nope. I mean, he does do that, but he generally attacks righties with the four-seamer and curveball. Lefties — the few lefties he faces — get the four-seamer, cutter, and curveball. Huh.

On the spin rate front, Paxton is roughly league average with his four-seamer (2,283 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm average) whereas his curveball is comfortably below average. His curveball had a 1,949 rpm average spin rate in 2018. The MLB average was 2,493 rpm. Despite that, Paxton’s curveball had a comfortably above-average 39.9% whiffs-per-swing rate (MLB average is 32.0%) because he sets it up well with elevated fastballs. Check it out:

Ask hitters and they’ll tell you the easiest curveballs to hit are the ones with a hump, meaning curveballs that come out of the pitcher’s hand and rise up a bit before breaking down. There’s no hump in Paxton’s curveball. It comes out on the same plane as his fastball. The hitter reads fastball, his brain tells his arms to start swinging at the fastball, and then the curveball breaks down below the zone. It is brutally effective when executed properly.

In what was undoubtedly the best two-start stretch by any pitcher in 2018, Paxton struck out 16 Athletics on May 2nd and no-hit the Blue Jays on May 9th. No one has made a “James Paxton 2018 highlights” video yet, so here’s every out of the no-hitter, which best shows his full arsenal at work (here’s the 16-strikeout video, if you’re interested).

?

The heavy fastball usage would seem to make Paxton a less than ideal target for the Yankees given their anti-fastball philosophy, but remember, they acquired J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn at the trade deadline, and they are two of the most extreme fastball pitchers in baseball. The 2018 fastball usage leaderboard:

Lance Lynn: 88.9%

James Paxton: 81.5%

David Price: 74.9%

Jon Lester: 74.8%

J.A. Happ: 73.3%

The anti-fastball Yankees traded for two of those five pitchers this past season and now they’re interested in acquiring another. I reckon the Lynn and Happ pickups had more to do with the market than their pitching style — you can only acquire guys who are available and they were available — but the important thing is the Yankees let them be. They let them continue throwing heaters. They didn’t force the anti-philosophy on them.

Paxton does not appear to be a good fit for the anti-fastball lifestyle. His best pitch is the four-seam fastball and his curveball is a good pitch, but not a truly dominant pitch. Paxton’s success stems from his fastball and having him scale back on that pitch doesn’t seem like a good idea. That doesn’t disqualify him as a Yankees’ trade target though. Lynn and Happ showed the Yankees are flexible. Not everyone has to get the organizational stamp.

Injury History

Those 160.1 innings Paxton threw this season are almost a career high. He threw 171.2 innings in 2016 and 169.2 innings back in 2013. Paxton has landed on the disabled list at least once each year from 2014-18. The injury list:

2014: Missed four months with a lat strain.

2015: Missed close to four months with a strained tendon in his left middle finger.

2016: Missed two weeks after taking a line drive to the pitching elbow.

2017: Missed a month with a forearm strain and another month with a strained pectoral.

2018: Missed three weeks with back inflammation and two weeks after taking a line drive to his left forearm.

I suppose the good news is Paxton’s elbow and shoulder are structurally sound. He did miss a month with a forearm strain last year and forearm strains are a common precursor to elbow trouble and Tommy John surgery, but Paxton returned from that injury and has had no other elbow/forearm trouble since. Well, no other trouble aside from the comebacker this season, which is just bad luck.

The best predictor of future injury is past injury and there are enough muscle strains and whatnot here to suggest Paxton might never be a 200-inning guy. That’s okay. There is a ton of value in being an above-average starter for 160-170 innings. We’d all love 200-inning guys but they are becoming increasingly hard to find. Teams are focused more on quality innings rather than quantity of innings, and Paxton can provide quality.

Contract Status

Paxton has four years and 151 days of service time (written as 4.151), which means two things. One, he has two years of control remaining before free agency. And two, this offseason he is arbitration-eligible for the third time as a Super Two. MLBTR projects a $9M salary in 2019. That likely puts his 2020 salary in the $15M range. Below-market salaries, no doubt, but not super duper cheap either.

Also, for what it’s worth, Paxton has two minor league options remaining. Those are valueless though. For starters, if you have to think about sending him to Triple-A at some point, something’s gone horribly wrong. You’re not trading for this guy to be an up-and-down depth arm, you know? And secondly, 21 more days of service time gets Paxton to five full years and gives him the right to refuse an assignment to the minors.

What’s It Going To Cost?

(Stephen Brashear/Getty)

The million dollar question. There have been surprising few starters traded with two years of control in recent years. I’ve found three and, honestly, only one seems instructive for Paxton. The three:

The Odorizzi trade was very clearly a salary dump. That doesn’t help us at all. The Tigers were widely ripped for getting such a light package for Fister, though Ray has worked out after being flipped to the Diamondbacks in the Didi Gregorius three-team trade. At the time though, it was an underwhelming package for a quality pitcher. The same is true with Cole. That four-player package seemed awfully light at the time and it looks even worse now.

Maybe the Fister and Cole trades indicate the price to get Paxton will be lower than expected? Paxton is at +10.9 WAR and 582.1 career innings right now. Fister was at +14.2 WAR in 818.2 innings at the time of his trade and Cole was at +11.5 WAR in 782.1 innings. The Mariners would understandably ask for a top prospect or quality young MLB player to lead a Paxton trade package. That’s what I’d want. Perhaps the Cole trade is enough of a precedent to come back with a quantity over quality counteroffer? I get the sense a bidding war will make a Cole package unlikely.

Does He Make Sense For The Yankees?

For sure. And, to be honest, I’m more on board with Paxton as a trade target now than I was before writing this post. The injury history isn’t as scary as I thought — for some reason I thought he had more elbow and shoulder problems — and I am forever down with starters who can get swings and misses with their fastball in the strike zone. Paxton doesn’t have an extreme platoon split and quality lefties are always a good mix with Yankee Stadium.

I have two concerns with Paxton. One, what’s up with that home run spike? That happened while he pitched his home games in Safeco Field. What happens with a move into Yankee Stadium? And two, I do worry there is some Michael Pineda in Paxton, meaning sexy peripherals but more hittable than the stuff would lead you to believe because he’s around the middle of the plate so much. Lots of strikeouts, few walks, and an ERA consistently higher than his FIP. Pineda and Paxton have that in common.

The Yanks are looking to add two more starters even after re-signing Sabathia and Paxton will probably be the best starter to hit the trade market this winter. If I had to pick one, I would prefer signing Patrick Corbin for just money over trading prospects for Paxton. This is not an either/or though. The Yankees could do both, sign Corbin and trade for Paxton, at least in theory. I don’t buy Paxton as an ace. He’s an above-average starter though, and he would undoubtedly make the Yankees a better team.

Ace Tanaka
The Yankees made sure that there would be no hangover from their miserable blowout loss in the series finale at Oakland, as they rebounded to beat the Mariners on Friday night, 4-0.

The win improved the Yankees to 53-29 all-time at Safeco Field, the best record at the ballpark by any team. They completely dominated the Mariners, who had just four baserunners (three hits, one walk) thanks to another gem from Masahiro Tanaka. It was the first time the Yankees blanked the Mariners while giving up no more than three hits since May 14, 1996 … Dwight Gooden’s memorable no-hitter in the Bronx.

Tanaka was stellar, tossing eight scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks. Only one runner reached third base, and he retired 13 batters in row between a first-inning two-out single by Robinson Cano and a sixth-inning leadoff double by Mike Zunino. Tanaka is the first pitcher in franchise history with a 10-strikeout, no-walk scoreless outing against the Mariners. It was his fifth career double-digit, zero-walk game; the only Yankee with more is Mike Mussina (7).

The brilliant performance also extended his run of dominant ace-like performances since the All-Star break. His 2.30 ERA in the second half of the season is the third-best among AL pitchers (min. 30 IP), behind only Blake Snell (1.42) and David Price (1.78).

Gleyber Torres gave Tanaka some early run support with his 23rd home run of the season in the second inning, a two-run bomb that also was his 100th career hit. Torres (21 years, 268 days old) is the youngest Yankee to reach the century-hit milestone since a 20-year-old Mickey Mantle in 1952. He also matched Mantle on this home run leaderboard of franchise legends:

Longballs FTW
The Bombers used their two trademark offensive weapon home runs and almost-homers (sac flies) to beat the Mariners on Saturday night, 4-2. They lead the majors in both categories (232 homers, 51 sac flies) — and by large margins. Entering Sunday, their 34-homer lead was nearly the same as the difference between the second-place teams (Dodgers and A’s, 198) and the 15th place team (Phillies, 165). And their six-sac fly lead was the same as the difference between the second-place Pirates (45) and the eighth-place Diamondbacks (39).

(AP)

Andrew McCutchen got the deep-ball party started when he cranked a leadoff homer in the top of the first. McCutchen is the third different Yankee to hit a leadoff blast this season (Gardner has three and Hicks has one). The last time they had a trio of players each with at least one leadoff homer was 1995, when four guys — Tony Fernandez, Bernie Williams, Luis Polonia, Wade Boggs — did it.

After Seattle tied it up in the third, Giancarlo Stanton put them ahead again in the fifth with a sacrifice fly to right, his 10th with the team. He is one of four Yankees to hit double-digit sac flies and 30 homers in a season:

The Mariners quickly knotted it up again in the bottom of the fifth, but Austin Romine finally gave the Yankees the lead for good with a solo blast in the seventh. It was his first career go-ahead homer in the seventh inning or later.

(USA Today)

Dellin Betances survived a shaky ninth inning for his third save of the season. He loaded the bases with one out and then struck out Denard Span and Kyle Seager swinging to seal the win. Opponents are 5-for-50 (.100) with the bases loaded against Betances in his career, and he’s whiffed nearly half (28) of them (58). That .100 batting average allowed is the lowest among all active MLB pitchers (min. 50 batters faced).

(AP)

WTF loss to the Mariners
All streaks must come to an end, right? The Bombers domination of the Mariners was snapped in abrupt fashion on Sunday, losing 3-2 on a fantastic game-ending catch by Mitch Haniger with the Yankees potential game-tying run on base. Prior to that loss, they had won seven in a row against the Mariners, and were going for the season series sweep. It would have been the first time ever that the Yankees swept a season series against an AL West team since divisional play began in 1969.

The big story of the game was another RISP-fail showing by the offense, which went 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position. That included a no-out, bases-loaded situation in the fourth inning that resulted in a single run scored when Andrew McCutchen took ball four on a full-count. The Bronx Walkers’ 14 bases-loaded walks are tied for the fourth-most in MLB this season, while their batting average and slugging percentage both rank 23rd.

(USA Today)

CC Sabathia battled through a rough first two innings but was able to limit the damage (two runs) and retired 11 of the final 13 batters he faced. Sabathia’s 2.24 ERA in 15 career starts at Safeco Field is the third-lowest at the ballpark among all pitchers with at least 10 starts there, behind Bartolo Colon (1.98) and Dan Haren (2.00).

Giancarlo Stanton — along with making the final out of the game — ended the no-hitter version of this game early with a first-inning double, his 30th of the season. Round number alert: he is the first Yankee with at least 30 homers and 30 doubles since Robinson Cano in 2012, the first Yankee right-handed batter to do it since Alex Rodriguez in 2008, and the first Yankee DH/outfielder to achieve both marks in a season since Hideki Matsui in 2004.

The Yankees opened up their West Coast trip in disappointing fashion, dropping two out of three to the Oakland A’s. And that 1-2 record doesn’t come close to capturing just how frustrating the series was. With their Wild Card home-field advantage lead now sitting at 3.5 games, they’ll head up the coast to face the sinking Mariners.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees were rude hosts to the Mariners back in June, earning a three-game sweep by a combined score of 18-10. Some notes:

Domingo German was excellent in the first game, tossing 7 innings and allowing just two hits and two runs (one earned), while striking out 9.

Clint Frazier – who turned 24 yesterday – started all three games of the series. He went 4-for-11 with a double and three runs scored. Bringing this up makes me both happy and sad.

Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar, and Giancarlo Stanton were a triple-headed monster in the series, going a combined 12-for-36 with two doubles, five home runs, and 11 RBI.

Injury Report

Juan Nicasio (knee surgery), David Phelps (Tommy John surgery), and Sam Tuivailala (Achilles tendon surgery) are all out for the year. Marco Gonzalez is currently on the DL with a neck injury, and it’s questionable whether he’ll be back in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

The Mariners are 78-62 with a -47 run differential, and are currently 5.5 GB in the Wild Card race. That -47 run differential is by far the worst among teams with a .500 or better record (the Rockies are next-worst at -8), and their Pythagorean record is 65-75 – so they may’ve overachieved a bit on the season. Regression to the mean is in full-swing, though, as the Mariners have went 32-36 since they landed in the Bronx back in June.

There isn’t one clear-cut reason for the Mariners backslide. Rather, it’s a combination of injuries, poor performance (and poorly timed poor performances), and the simple fact that they were playing above their talent level for a time. The fact that they’ve literally descended into clubhouse chaos probably doesn’t help, either.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Scott Servais has continued to have a mostly-steady hand on the lineup card, with most of the movement being from position to position (e.g., Robinson Cano has played 1B, 2B, and 3B and Dee Gordon has played 2B, SS, and CF). We’ll probably see something like this:

Mitch Haniger, RF – .279/.365/.490, 24 HR, 7 SB, 138 OPS+

Jean Segura, SS – .314/.345/.430, 8 HR, 20 SB, 117 OPS+

Robinson Cano, 2B – .286/.369/.445, 7 HR, 0 SB, 128 OPS+

Nelson Cruz, DH – .267/.353/.538, 34 HR, 1 SB, 146 OPS+

Denard Span, LF – .277/.353/.449, 11 HR, 8 SB, 123 OPS+

Ryon Healy, 1B – .249/.283/.445, 24 HR, 0 SB, 100 OPS+

Kyle Seager, 3B – .216/.267/.393, 20 HR, 2 SB, 83 OPS+

Mike Zunino, C – .188/.246/.395, 18 HR, 0 SB, 76 OPS+

Dee Gordon, CF – .272/.293/.337, 2 HR, 30 SB, 77 OPS+

Ben Gamel (110 OPS+) and Cameron Maybin (86 OPS+) will probably see some time in the outfield; David Freitas (66 OPS+) is the back-up catcher.

Edwin Diaz donning his Players Weekend uniform. (Norm Hall/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (10:10 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP James Paxton

Paxton started against the Yankees back on June 21, and didn’t fare too well, pitching to the following line – 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 9 K. He has had two subsequent stints on the DL, the first coming in July due to back soreness, and the second in August, which was the result of being hit with a line-drive in his left arm. He’s otherwise been good, putting up a 3.74 ERA (107 ERA+) and 11.6 K/9 in 144.1 IP.

Last outing (vs. OAK on 9/1) – 5.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 10 K

Saturday (9:10 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Felix Hernandez

Hernandez was sent to the bullpen a month ago, following a 6 IP, 11 R effort on August 7. That stint lasted exactly one appearance, as he relieved Paxton following the aforementioned comebacker, tossed 5.2 solid IP, and returned to the rotation the following week. Things haven’t gotten much better for Hernandez, though, as he still has a career-worst 5.55 ERA (72 ERA+) in 147.2 IP.

Last outing (vs. OAK on 9/1) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K

Sunday (4:00 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Erasmo Ramirez

Ramirez has been an up-and-down guy for the last several years, and he has done well in that role. He’s been in the rotation since mid-August due to injuries (first to Paxton, then to Gonzalez), and he’s performed admirably through five starts (24.1 IP, 24 H, 6 BB, 19 K, 3.70 ERA). There’s a non-zero chance that Gonzalez will be activated in time for this start, but, as of now, it’s Ramirez’s turn.

The 28-year-old is a three or five pitch guy, depending on how you look at it. He throws three fastballs (a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, and a high-80s cutter), a low-80s slider, and a low-80s change-up.

Last outing (vs. BAL) – 5.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K

The Bullpen

Edwin Diaz is in the midst of a ridiculous season. He currently boasts a 1.87 ERA (215 ERA+), 1.34 FIP, 15.6 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9, and he’s 53-for-57 in save opportunities. He leads all relievers in WAR, and he’s second in WPA (behind the A’s Blake Treinen) … and he’s still just 24. He’s a legitimate stud.

Chasen Bradford (3.33 ERA in 48.2 IP), James Pazos (3.02 ERA in 41.2 IP), and Alex Colome (3.05 ERA with the Mariners) are the primary high-leverage options behind Diaz, and they’ve all been good thus far. Things are a bit dicey after that, though.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It’s always a pleasure to see Robinson Cano on the field, even with his PED-related fall from grace. And Edwin Diaz has a very outside shot at matching Francisco Rodriguez’s single-season saves record of 62.

Rather than continue to add, the Yankees subtracted from their roster the day before the 2018 trade deadline. Adam Warren has been traded to the Mariners for international bonus money, both teams announced. Mark Feinsand says the Yankees are getting $1.25M. The trade is official.

It is entirely possible, if not likely, there are still other dominoes still to fall here. At the moment, the Yankees essentially salary dumped a reliable and versatile reliever in the middle of a postseason race. Salary dumped him to not just a fellow AL contender, but a team they could very well face in the AL Wild Card Game if they don’t win the AL East. Huh.

Warren, 30, has a 2.70 ERA (3.30 FIP) with 28.9% strikeouts and 9.4% walks in 30 innings around a lat injury this season. Typical Warren, basically. Boring, reliable. He was probably the seventh best reliever in the bullpen, but he might be Seattle’s third best. The Yankees save about $1.1M against the luxury tax in the trade.

Between the recent Warren ($1.25M), Caleb Frare ($1.25M), and Luke Voit ($1M) trades, the Yankees have maxed out their 2018-19 international bonus pool at $8,721,125. They started with $4,983,500 bonus pool and teams are allowed to add an additional 75% through trades. The Yankees have done that. Their pool is maxed out.

Domingo+Dingers=Win
After a quick trip to the nation’s capital, the Yankees were back at the friendly confines on Tuesday night and opened their series with an easy 7-2 win over the Mariners.

Domingo German was absolutely brilliant in his eighth career start. After giving up a run (unearned) in the first inning, he retired 19(!) straight batters before Nelson Cruz tagged him with a solo homer in the seventh. He pitched a career-high seven innings, surrendering just two hits while striking out nine and walking none.

It was the second time this season he’s allowed no more than two hits and gotten at least nine strikeouts, earning our #funfact of the series: Since his first start on May 6, the only other MLB pitcher to have two games with those stats (2 or fewer hits and 9 or more strikeouts) is Chris Sale.

German’s dominance has peaked in the last two weeks. Over his last three starts, 28 of the 51 outs (55%) he’s recorded have come via strikeout. And for the season, he’s shown elite swing-and-miss stuff, with a 15.7 percent swinging strike rate that is the second-highest among all pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched.

Highest Whiff Rate This Season (Min. 40 IP)

Whiffs/Pitches %

Max Scherzer

16.6

Domingo German

15.8

Jacob deGrom

15.7

Shohei Ohtani

15.7

Noah Syndergaard

15.0

Chris Sale

15.0

Giancarlo Stanton ignited the Yankees home run derby with a game-tying solo shot in the bottom of the first inning off Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales. He entered the game with a .435 ISO (Isolated Power) against lefty pitchers, the highest mark in the AL (min. 50 PA).

Miguel Andujar made sure the fans at Yankee Stadium would go home happy, crushing a career-long 427-foot home run in the fifth inning that put the team ahead 3-1. Aaron Hicks added a few insurance runs with his own two-run bomb later in the fifth, going deep in back-to-back-to-back games for the first time in his career.

Finally, Gleyber Torres capped off the dinger party with monster blast in the eighth inning, his 14th of the season. It wouldn’t be a Gleyber Day without the obligatory Mickey Mantle/Joe DiMaggio comparison:

The newest True Yankee
The Comeback Kids were back in the Bronx on Wednesday as the Yankees staged yet another improbable rally to beat the Mariners, 7-5, after trailing 5-0 in the fifth inning. It was their biggest comeback win of the season; before Wednesday, they were 0-6 when trailing by at least five runs in a game. It’s been a couple weeks since their last walk-off victory, so let’s recap and update some of the statistical goodness that’s defined this never-say-die 2018 Yankees season:

Sixth walk-off win of the season, one more than they had all of last year and tied for the most in the AL. The last time the Yankees had six walk-off wins this early into the schedule (71st game) was 2009.

Third walk-off homer of season, tied for the most in the AL and the same number they had all of last year. The last time they had three walk-off dingers this early into the season was 2009.

23rd comeback win of season, the most in the majors. By the way, the 2009 team also had 23 comeback wins in their first 71 games.

Hmmm … sensing a trend there.

(Getty)

Gary Sanchez was the first hero of the night, tying the game in the eighth with a massive 439-foot two-run homer. It was his team-best third home run in the eighth inning or later that either tied the game or gave the team a lead; he had never hit one of those before 2018. The Yankees are now 11-0 in games that Sanchez goes deep this year.

Giancarlo Stanton then capped the rally with a two-out, two-strike mammoth shot over the wall in left-center. It was his fourth career walk-off longball and first as a Yankee. The poor baseball went a projected 453 feet, the longest walk-off home run recorded by Statcast (since 2015).

(USA Today)

Based on his season-to-date numbers this season, Stanton might have been the last guy you’d think would have been drenched in Gatorade at home plate after his at-bat. His splits entering Wednesday as he faced righty Ryan Cook:

BA

Slug Pct

AB/HR

Home

.213

.411

17.6

High Leverge

.208

.250

0.0

Late & Close

.132

.184

0.0

vs RHP

.217

.379

24.8

And to celebrate his first True Yankee Moment, let’s give Stanton our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: Over the last 30 years (when we have reliable pitch data), he is just the second Yankee to hit a two-out walk-off homer in an 0-2 count. The other was Jason Giambi on June 5, 2008 against the Blue Jays off reliever B.J. Ryan in the bottom of the ninth.

Nifty Fifty
Because this team simply refuses to lose … the Yankees completed the sweep of the Mariners on Thursday afternoon, holding on for a 4-3 win.

They are now 19-18 when scoring four runs or fewer this season; every other team is at least three games under .500 in that situation. Looking ahead, the last MLB team to finish with a winning record in games when scoring no more than four runs was the 1979 Astros (57-56), and the last AL team to do it was the 1954 Cleveland Indians (41-39).

(Newsday)

The Bronx Bombers did all their scoring in the first inning, as Aaron Judge and Miguel Andujar both smashed two-run homers to give the Yankees an early 4-0 advantage.

Andujar’s blast was his 10th of the season, making the Yankees the only team in MLB with seven double-digit homer players in 2018 (Red Sox have six). The only other time in the last 15 seasons that the Yankees had seven players hit at least 10 dingers before July 1 was 2009.

The third baseman joined Gleyber Torres in the 10-homer club, producing yet another pinstriped record: they are the first set of Yankee rookie infielders to hit at least 10 homers in the same season. The last pair of Yankee rookie teammates at any position to do it were Gil McDougald and Mickey Mantle in 1951.

Finally this was also their 50th win in 2018, an important milestone considering this stat: It’s the eighth time that the Yankees have reached the 50-win mark in their first 72 games, and here’s how the previous seven seasons ended:

Worry not, dear reader, for the dreaded trip to Seattle (and Oakland) isn’t until September. That doesn’t necessarily make this match-up any better, though.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Mariners for a three-game Players Weekend set last August, picking up two wins and outscoring the visiting club by 11 runs. Some other notes from the series:

The first game of the series was one of the most frustrating in recent memory. The Yankees left thirteen runners on-base in total, and left the bases loaded three times. Aroldis Chapman, who lost his job as closer a week earlier, surrendered a go-ahead (and game-winning) pinch-hit home run in the 11th. Ugh.

Greg Bird returned to the lineup after missing nearly four months of action in the second game, and he looked pretty good. He went 1-for-2 with two walks and a run scored, and played all nine innings at first.

That second game also included somebody named ‘Jacoby Ellsbury’ going 2-for-4 with a home run and four RBI. That guy went 4-for-10 in the series as a whole, with a double, that home run, a walk, and 6 RBI.

Seattle made five errors in one inning in the third game, which made things pretty easy for the Yankees offense. Masahiro Tanaka twirled a gem, as well, tossing 7 innings of 1 run ball, and striking out 10.

Injury Report

The Mariners have half of a bullpen on the DL, with Dan Altavilla, David Phelps, Erasmo Ramirez, and Nick Vincent out with a variety of ailments. Phelps had Tommy John Surgery in March, so he won’t be back any time soon, and Altavilla has a nebulously named “mass sprain” in his elbow, so his return is up in the air, as well. The other two could be back this month, but probably not in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

Seattle is 46-26 with a +22 run differential, good for second-place in both the AL West and the AL Wild Card race. They’ve overachieved quite a bit relative to their Pythagorean expectations, which place them as a 38-34 team. That’s not shocking, considering that they have the 4th best winning percentage in baseball, and the 12th best run differential.

The Mariners are basically a middle of the pack team, sitting 12th in runs allowed, 13th in runs scored, and 22nd in defensive runs saved. Their biggest strength as of now is the bullpen, which is among the five-best in the game by pretty much every measure. That isn’t to say that their offense or starting pitching is bad; rather, that it’s good enough to be put over the top by a light’s out bullpen. And that’s been the key to their success so far.

All that being said, their biggest story so far may well be Robinson Cano’s 80-game suspension for violating the league’s joint drug agreement. He’s not eligible to return until August 14 and, when he does, he might not get his full-time job back.

The Lineup We Might See

Third-year manager Scott Servais has had a fairly steady hand with his lineup card, as the only real shake-up was the result of Cano’s suspension. We’ll probably see something like this:

Dee Gordon, 2B – .290/.311/.361, 1 HR, 19 SB

Jean Segura, SS – .340/.363/.490, 6 HR, 14 SB

Mitch Haniger, RF – .269/.357/.512, 16 HR, 3 SB

Nelson Cruz, DH – .249/.339/.521, 17 HR, 1 SB

Kyle Seager, 3B – .224/.272/.413, 12 HR, 1 SB

Ryon Healy, 1B – .257/.288/.485, 13 HR, 0 SB

Ben Gamel, LF – .297/.371/.406, 1 HR, 5 SB

Mike Zunino, C – .207/.266/.445, 11 HR, 0 SB

Guillermo Heredia, CF – .241/.343/.348, 2 HR, 1 SB

Denard Span (.259/.368/.415, 6 HR, 6 SB) could see some time in left, as well.

James Paxton. (Bob Levey/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Marco Gonzales

Despite being a top-50 prospect a few years ago, Gonzales never received much of an opportunity with his original organization, the Cardinals. He was shipped to Seattle for prospect Tyler O’Neill last July, and the Mariners stuck him in the rotation. Things were a bit rocky last season, but Gonzales has been very good in 2018, pitching to a 3.42 ERA (117 ERA+) and 3.20 FIP in 79.0 IP. His 21.1% strikeout rate is right around league-average, and his 46.8% groundball rate and 5.8% walk rate are comfortably better than average.

Gonzales is a true five-pitch guy, working with a low-90s four-seamer, low-90s sinker, high-80s cutter, mid-80s change, and high-70s curve. Much of his success this year has been attributed to that cutter, which he only starting throwing this past off-season.

The once-dominant King Felix is a shell of his former self at 32, sporting a 98 ERA+ since Opening Day 2015. This has been his worst season to-date, though, as he has a 5.44 ERA (73 ERA+) and 4.67 FIP in 84.1 IP, having allowed four or more runs in 7 of his 15 starts. He does have a 4.00 ERA in June, though, with two strong outings sandwiched around a 3-inning, 6-run effort on June 9, so the flashes are still there … to some degree.

Hernandez’s once elite velocity is gone nowadays, as his four-seamer averages 90.3 MPH this year, a full MPH lower than 2017. He still throws the same arsenal, albeit with a reduced velocity – that four-seamer, a high-80s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, a low-80s slider, and a high-70s curve.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 6/14) – 7.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K

Thursday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP James Paxton

Paxton struck out 16 A’s on May 2 and followed that up by no-hitting the Blue Jays his next time out, in the midst of an utterly dominant stretch that saw him pitch to a 1.75 ERA in 56.2 IP. He’s been mortal around those eight games, though, and that’s largely been the story of his career. And he’s never faced the Yankees.

Paxton is primarily a three-pitch guy, focusing on his mid-90s four-seamer, high-80s cutter, and big-breaking, low-80s curve. He’ll also throw a mid-90s sinker and a mid-80s change-up, but those are oftentimes little more than show-me pitches.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 6/15) – 2.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 1 BB 4 K

The Bullpen

Edwin Diaz is the closer, and his numbers are kind of absurd. He has more than three times as many strikeouts (62) as hits allowed (20), and he’s striking out 42.5% of all batters. He already has 27 saves, which is five more than the second-place Craig Kimbrel, and his 2.56 WPA is ninth among all pitchers.

James Pazos (1.48 ERA in 24.1 IP) and Chasen Bradford (3.21 ERA in 28.0 IP) have done the heavy lifting behind Diaz, and they’ve been very good so far. The rest of the bullpen has been something of a revolving door due to the aforementioned injuries, but the newly acquired Alex Colome (3.68 ERA in 7.1 IP for the Mariners) has high-leverage experience.

Yankees Connection

A few have been mentioned so far – Cano, Ben Gamel (parts of seven years), and James Pazos (six years) were all brought-up through the Yankees organization. You’ll also remember Nick Rumbelow, who rode the shuttle for the Yankees in 2015 and was dealt to Seattle last November; you may not remember Wade LeBlanc, who pitched one awful inning for the good guys back in 2014 and was a non-roster invite to Spring Training this year. He has a 2.63 ERA (152 ERA+) in fourteen games this year, because of course he does.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Paxton’s curve is a sight to behold, and Diaz is just filthy all-around; hopefully the Yankees won’t have to see him at all this week. And Gordon and Segura have a vibe that’s not all that different from Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius, if you’re into that sort of thing.