Over two decades of public life, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had hinted that his vision for Turkey was at odds with the course the country was on. Sunday’s vote appears to have brought both into alignment.

Erdoğan claims victory in Turkish constitutional referendum

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The Turkey that citizens will wake to the day after the referendum – backing new powers for its presidency – will be a very different place, ruled by a leader whose quest to consolidate power has been a driving force throughout his career.

Turkey’s transition from ailing democracy to rising autocracy has been delivered by the will of the people and will be a gift to a man who, in 1996, declared “democracy is not a goal, but an instrument”.

He has said similar things to regional leaders since and no longer has to go through the motions with them or voters. However, the margin was slimmer than Erdoğan had hoped for and questions remain whether his strongman rule in Turkey really does have a mandate.

The past year has been perhaps the most dramatic and dizzying in the modern state’s century-old history. Out of the chaos of coup d’etat, insurrection, terror and an eroding global order came opportunity for a man who had been chipping away at civic freedoms long before then.

Last July’s failed coup attempt in particular allowed Erdoğan to nakedly declare himself as the only fit protector of a besieged state and its vulnerable people. Never mind state institutions, such as the courts, military, executive, or legislature. Or tenets of civil society, such as free press and dissent.

The new laws notionally will allow Erdoğan, as executive president, to hold all executive power, for the first time in the country’s history. The powers are broad: to hire and fire judges and prosecutors, appoint a cabinet, abolish the post of prime minister, limit parliament’s role to amend legislation and many more.

If the laws are enacted, checks and balances will be weakened and separation of powers rendered nearly non-existent. Parliamentary scrutiny will be replaced by the will of one man, who can be elected for two five-year terms as president, not including his current term. If parliament were to call an early poll during his second term, Erdoğan would be eligible to run for a third. That could keep him in the job until 2034, on top of the 14 years he has already served.

In addition to a redrawing of Turkey’s body politic, a cult of personality seems likely to be a new governing principle in a country conditioned to believe that it faces overwhelming threats from near and far.

Marginalising the media has made things much easier and helped more broadly to define a growing list of enemies. Outlets that showcase contrary views, or opposition platforms, have been intimidated and closed - a policy that allowed Erdoğan to shape the yes narrative during the campaign and will certainly be replicated during Turkey’s new normal.

Europe, which Ankara has long courted, is now viewed with increasing suspicion. The White House, and the US more generally, are widely seen as subversives for not handing over exiled cleric Fethullah Gülen, the failed coup’s alleged mastermind.

As of January, more than 80 journalists and 150 media workers were in prison in Turkey, more than in any other country. Leading journalists were under intense pressure before the ballot to declare their hands and some fear that they too will be targeted for not enthusiastically supporting a yes vote.

In such a febrile atmosphere, there is little will for power-sharing, or even accommodation of the country’s broad range of political interests. But inside Erdoğan’s power base, there is a fear that the sweeping victory that was needed to secure his new role was not delivered. Such a significant constitutional change would be more credibly made with a more definitive margin.

The yes campaign lost in Istanbul and Ankara, and urban conservatives across the country were less enthusiastic than expected in their support.

There was no euphoria in AK party ranks on Sunday night. Instead, a feeling that Erdoğan might not have not done enough. Rather than bringing certainty, a slim win could well widen a divide within the ruling party and across the country, where a large part of the population was already unhappy, or ambivalent, with the leadership. For many in Turkey, life is becoming ever more about survival.

The November 2015 election was seen as a validation of Erdoğan’s agenda. Although this referendum is not a direct vote for Erdoğan, it is being viewed by many as such, and the slump in support from within his own ranks can be seen as a slap for a man who may have overreached.

How he negotiates a path between vested interests in a divided nation, and how much of a mandate he perceives to now have will be instructive in coming weeks. AK, an Islamic-oriented conservative party, has recently started soul-searching, with some of its founding members unable to reconcile the party’s current values and direction with what they envisaged 16 years ago.

In the meantime, Erdoğan can look for comfort on a world stage, where autocrats in Russia, the Philippines, in Egypt and the Arab world, and a would-be strongman in Washington, are confidently showing their hands. “He thinks he can be like them, said one leader in the Arab world. “He sees Vladimir Putin and he likes what he sees. Turkey is more robust than Russia though. All he has delivered so far is uncertainty.”