This isn’t a science. This isn’t even logical. If it were, Butler and Virginia Commonwealth wouldn’t be here. Kentucky and Connecticut probably wouldn’t be either. It’s a feeling. It’s an eye test.

Nevertheless, after seeing multiple impressive performances by VCU, the thought is at some point they have to cool off, right? If they continue to shoot 3-pointers like layups, we live with it. Deeply embedded in the history of basketball is that shooting comes and goes. Defense is the only constant, and Butler has the edge there. The inside-out combination of Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack, plus the team’s Final Four experience from last season, are enough to back the Bulldogs (-2½).

In the game to determine the title favorite, the matchup looks dead even. Kentucky has won 10 straight games; Connecticut has won nine. They both have excelled against top-tier teams, both flourished in the final seconds. For the first time during this run, I flipped a coin. It landed on its side.

Oh well.

This game will come down to the final minute, possibly the final possession. In that scenario, you want the best player on the floor. You want Kemba Walker on your side.