-Israel is living in a most convenient period of time from a security
standpoint. Suicide attacks are behind us and there is deterrence
against rocket attacks. At the same time there are unprecedented
challenges to our national security including the possibility of a
nuclear Iran or even a nuclear Middle East

-Iran’s capabilities for developing nuclear weapons are no longer a
question. They only have to make the decision. They have the know-how
to assemble nuclear warheads on missiles if they want to. Today there
is a consensus among the world’s intelligence agencies: Iran is a
threat.

-I cannot imagine Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or any of the other Arab
countries tolerating a nuclear Iran. There is an Arabic
word, “ajami,” which expresses disgust of the Persians. If you ask
any Arab leader about the greatest threat, he will say Iran – not
Israel – but not publicly.

-The terrorists in Sinai are financed by Iran and they want to murder
as many Israelis as they can. If there is terror from Sinai, this
complicates Israel’s relationship with Egypt, which is why we choose
to preemptively kill the terrorists.

-The Iranians and the Turks have a 1,000-year-old tradition of
rivalry. I cannot believe that the Turks believe there is room for
friendship with Iran. If Iran goes nuclear, the Turks will be very
upset.

-There are political contacts all the time between Israel and the PA.
But even if we sign an agreement tomorrow, it cannot be implemented
as long as there is a division between Hamas and the PA. If we only
sign with Abbas or his colleagues, it would just be a treaty between
Israel and Ramallah, and no Palestinian would agree to this.

The Vital Role of Jordan

From a security perspective, the current period is a most convenient
one for Israel. We are not suffering from terror, after long years of
being attacked. This achievement is based on the unique intelligence
capabilities that we have developed, combined with the operational
capabilities of the IDF and state-of-the-art security in Jordan. I
would like to thank Jordan, even though they are not doing it for us
but for their own interests. Jordan’s state-of-the-art security is
protecting a very complicated border. The outcome, from the Israeli
point of view, is a dramatic contribution to our security. It is very
difficult for terrorists to cross the Jordanian border, and we enjoy
the benefits.

Coordination with the Palestinian Authority

There is security coordination, but not cooperation, between Israel
and the Palestinian Authority. It is less significant than our own
capabilities or those of Jordan, but it is quite significant. It is
based on the interest of the Palestinian Authority to defeat its
enemies, such as Hamas. While there is talk of reconciliation between
them, this is difficult to imagine since Hamas wants to take over the
PLO. The PLO holds the golden shares of Palestinian nationalism, and
the PA is a product of agreements between the PLO and Israel. At the
moment, Hamas, which is a part of the Muslim Brotherhood, is seeking
to take over both the PA and the PLO. For the time being, the PA is
quite important from a security point of view, even though there has
been a decline in the quality of its security performance.

There are political contacts all the time between Israel and the PA.
But even if we sign an agreement tomorrow, it cannot be implemented
as long as there is a division between Hamas and the PA. If we only
sign with Abbas or his colleagues, it would just be a treaty between
Israel and Ramallah, and no Palestinian would agree to this. Israel
is committed to a two-state solution and will do its best to resume
negotiations with the Palestinians. We are also talking with Jordan,
which has hosted the talks in Amman. But I am not offering an
optimistic message that tomorrow a peace agreement will be signed.

The Palestinians in Gaza possess rockets that are growing in number,
quality and range. They may be deterred from an immediate attack
against us, but there is no fundamental solution. They are anti-
Israeli, both religiously and nationally. They are very violent and
believe in using terror. They are doing their best to attack Israel,
but they fail again and again because it is almost impossible to send
terrorist groups directly to Israel from Gaza. Depending on Egypt, on
diplomacy, or on our technology to protect us from Gaza rockets is
not a fundamental solution. It is an interim solution for an
immediate problem.

Along Israel’s Borders

Other good news is that Israel does have deterrence vis-à-vis the
threats around us. The north is flourishing. The Golan Heights is
very stable and quiet. In the south, we are enjoying partial
deterrence. When violence does erupt, Egypt has been successful in
convincing Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the others to maintain the quiet
because it is clear that if these groups continue to attack us, Egypt
could suffer from Israel’s operations. So what Egypt is doing is for
its own interests.

I would not describe our relations with Egypt as coordination. I
prefer to say that it is in the Egyptian interest to keep stability
and quiet. Without Egypt, I cannot imagine there would be any reality
of peace on Israel’s southern front. They are the only ones who can
convince the extremists to remain quiet. The Egyptian security
establishment is efficient and professional.

The leader of any peace option is Egypt. Even a cold peace is better
than any war. This is a pillar of our national security. In our
country, the best option is to use the army only if you do not have
another option.

The Threat to Israel from Iran

Israel’s identification of the Iranian nuclear threat was a great
intelligence achievement. We identified the threat of a nuclear Iran
in the mid-1990s, when Iran did not have a single missile that could
reach Israel. Iran’s capabilities for developing nuclear weapons are
no longer a question. They only have to make the decision. They have
5.5 tons of low-enriched uranium. They have hundreds of Shahab-3
missiles which can travel 1,500 km., and they have missiles with a
range of 2,200 km. Their ambition is to become the regional
superpower. They have the know-how to assemble nuclear warheads on
missiles if they want to.

They have not yet crossed the Rubicon. Khamenei, who is the leader,
not Ahmadinejad, relies on the brutal force of the Revolutionary
Guard. Whenever he finds it appropriate, he is determined to develop
the option to decide to develop nuclear weapons. He has not done so
yet because he is shocked by the magnitude of exposure of these
secret projects. For example, two years ago at the United Nations,
the president of the United States exposed the existence of a top-
secret project near Qom, and the Iranians were shocked. For a long
time the world did not recognize the nature of this threat, but now
there is a consensus among the world’s intelligence agencies: Iran is
a threat.

There is no current existential threat to Israel, but a nuclear Iran
has the potential of creating such a threat when they get the bomb.
If Ahmadinejad and Khamenei keep saying that Israel does not have the
right to exist, then with nuclear capability it becomes serious.
Without nuclear weapons, it remains just a statement. Iran without
nuclear capability is a terrible threat but not an existential one.
At the moment, they are using terror and we are suffering from it.
The main issue today is how to prevent a nuclear Iran.

For the first time I see significant sanctions, but everything
depends on the result – if they decide to pull back from the nuclear
project. But even if they withdraw from the project, the know-how
remains. In 2003, based on the perception that there was an
existential threat, Iran froze the project.

Today in Lebanon, Hizbullah, which murdered former Lebanese prime
minister Hariri, is a partner in the coalition government. The names
of the murderers are known to everybody, including to the Lebanese
police. But the president is not ordering the police to arrest the
number two official in Hizbullah, who is responsible for the murder.
Most importantly, from Israel’s perspective, Hizbullah has taken over
half of Lebanon. Hizbullahstan is much more powerful militarily, or
even politically, than Lebanon itself, heavily financed by Iran and
Syria. They have at least 45,000 rockets, compared with 14,000 in
2006 at the time of the Second Lebanon War. There is also Iranian
terror all over the world, with Iranians whose base is in Lebanon.

I cannot imagine Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or any of the other Arab
countries tolerating a nuclear Iran. There is an Arabic
word, “ajami,” which expresses disgust of the Persians. A nuclear
Iran will destroy the stability of the Middle East and threaten the
best interests of the world. If you ask any Arab leader about the
greatest threat, he will say Iran – not Israel – but not publicly.

Concerned about Egypt

Israel is concerned about the dramatic changes in Egypt. There is no
alternative to peaceful relations between us and Egypt, and the
leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood have declared that they are
committed to peace, but I am not sure. Their ideology is different.
Their dream is to establish an Islamic empire at the expense of
Egypt, Jordan, and Abbas’ Palestinian Authority. Israel is excluded
by definition since this is considered holy waqf land.

The new Muslim Brotherhood-dominated parliament in Cairo has
repeatedly voted against relations with Israel. The Egyptians may
declare they are committed to peace, but they find excuses to
undermine it. The Muslim Brotherhood has visited Gaza, but mainly
they are focusing on the political process in Egypt, including
elections and the new constitution. As of July, there is to be a new
president.

Israel is also concerned about Sinai, where we fully rely on the
Egyptian government and army to overcome all kinds of threats,
including smuggling. In order to pre-empt acts of terror, such as
occurred last year, we are relying on our intelligence. The
terrorists in Sinai are financed by Iran and they want to murder as
many Israelis as they can. If there is terror from Sinai, this
complicates Israel’s relationship with Egypt, which is why we choose
to preemptively kill the terrorists. To do this you need to have
accurate and excellent intelligence all the time.

Syria Slaughters Its People

Of course Israel denounces the Syrian government’s slaughter of its
people. Assad is an Alawite, and he is slaughtering his opponents. He
will continue until he is defeated. For Israel, the Golan Heights is
very quiet and stable because the Syrians are busy with their own
problems. There are concerns about the fate of the strategic weapons
that exist in Syria. For the time being they are secure, but we need
to be on alert.

A Changed Turkey

Both Turkey and Iran used to be our best friends. We are doing our
best to ease the tension between us and Turkey, but it is quite a
challenge to digest and understand the changes that have occurred in
Turkey. We do not like the way Turkey is cooperating with Iran from
time to time, but the Iranians and the Turks have a 1,000-year-old
tradition of rivalry. I cannot believe that the Turks believe there
is room for friendship with Iran. If Iran goes nuclear, the Turks
will be very upset.

Excellent Dialogue with the U.S., China, and Russia

Israel’s security relations with the United States are excellent and
very valuable and qualitative – psychologically, militarily, and
strategically.

Israel’s relations with China are excellent. Israeli Minister of
Defense Ehud Barak paid a four-day visit there. The Chinese chief-of-
staff, with almost 20 generals, has visited Israel, and our prime
minister may visit China soon. I am encouraged by China’s deep
appreciation of Israel, which is important both psychologically and
economically. Israel has nominated a cabinet minister to be the next
ambassador in China, officially reflecting an Israeli policy to
enhance relations. At the same time, Israel has commitments to the
United States regarding some areas of cooperation with China, and we
are fully committed to them.

Putin of Russia was in Israel and expressed a deep commitment to our
national security. They consider the one million Russian Jews in
Israel as very important to Russia. However, the Russians are
supplying weapons to Syria, including a supersonic missile against
ships and other strategic targets. We have requested that they not
supply such weapons because they will fall into the hands of
Hizbullah.

All together, there is a paradox here. Israel is living in one of the
most convenient periods of time from a security standpoint. Suicide
attacks are behind us and there is deterrence against rocket attacks.
At the same time there are unprecedented challenges to our national
security including the possibility of a nuclear Iran or even a
nuclear Middle East, and we need to be prepared for a wide range of
developments.