REPUBLICAN
CONVENTION. As killer Hurricane Gustav approached the
Louisiana coast -- with an expected landfall Monday -- GOP leaders
announced a curtailing of Monday's opening day schedule in Minneapolis-St.
Paul. President Bush and Vice President Cheney both canceled planned
convention speeches and will instead focus on storm response activities.
Other canceled speakers include First Lady Laura Bush and California
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The RNC will instead hold a brief
"business only" session. The Tuesday schedule may also
be impacted, but there will be no decision until some time on
Monday. Also, the McCain campaign chartered a jet to fly 30+ Alabama,
Mississippi and Louisiana delegates home to the Gulf region on
Sunday to check on family and property, and will give them the
option of returning on the jet to Minnesota with additional family
members. Republicans understand that they cannot be seen to be
overly partisan in the face of a national catastrophe -- but also
are concerned that curtailing too many convention activities may
minimize any "convention bounce" for McCain. In related
news, the Barack Obama campaign announced plans to use their massive
email list of supporters to solicit money and volunteers for disaster
relief activities in the aftermath of the storm.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.31.08 | Permalink
|

McCAIN-PALIN.
John McCain used his 72nd birthday on Friday to name Alaska Governor
Sarah Palin -- a 44-year-old mother of five -- as his Vice Presidential
runningmate. It was a bold political gamble to select Palin as
his runningmate. Conservative Republicans quickly praised the
choice, saying Palin is an energetic campaigner and political
reformer. Religious right leader James Dobson said the selection
made it easy for him to now support McCain. Conservatives note
Palin is staunchly pro-life, pro-gun rights, pro-tax cuts and
pro-oil drilling. The Anchorage Daily News also reported
Palin "thinks creationism should be taught alongside evolution
in the state's public classrooms." Conservative pundit Pat
Buchanan also noted on MSNBC that Palin openly supported his 2000
cultural conservative Presidential run for the GOP nomination:
"She's a great choice for the base ... She's a Buchananite."
Democrats, by contrast, questioned the wisdom of selecting someone
so inexperienced to be just a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
They note Palin was formerly mayor of a town of 9,000 residents
and is now just 20 months into her first term as Governor. McCain
clearly intends the move to help him pick-up support from independent
women voters. Untested on the national stage, it is simply too
early to tell if Palin will prove on the trail to be a brilliant
political pick or another Dan Quayle.

OBAMA'S BIG SPEECH; McCAIN TO NAME VEEP FRIDAY; 1/23 MARINES REDUX;
AND SOME NEW POLLS.

DEMOCRATIC
CONVENTION. Barack Obama
gave his biggest campaign speech to date before a outdoor crowd
of 80,000 in Denver, just one day after he officially became the
Democratic Presidential nominee. In trademark Obama style, he
delivered another impressive, landmark address. At turns inspiring,
at others feisty, he talked of his America and defined his vision
for a better America than we've had for these past eight years.
Like his speech the night of his Iowa victory in January, Obama
gave another speech that will be remembered as great American
political oratory. FYI: Don't know if any of you caught it
but wounded Iraq War veteran Jon Kuniholm -- one of the 1/23 Marines
that Politics1 "adopted" in 2004 during our Politics1
Goes to War series -- spoke at the convention early Thursday
evening. This was the sad report when
Jon was injured in an attack and lost his arm. Our series
was intended as a reminder that those Americans who strongly oppose
the Iraq War can still honor and appreciate the sacrifices of
those brave young Americans serving in uniform in Iraq and Afghanistan.

McCAIN.
John McCain will announce his VP runningmate choice at an Ohio
rally on Friday. According to various news sources, the short-list
finalists are reported to include Mitt Romney, Tom Ridge, Tim
Pawlenty, Joe Lieberman and Kay Bailey Hutchison. Stay tuned.

DEMOCRATIC
CONVENTION.Barack
Obama officially became the Democratic Presidential nominee, with
Senator Hillary Clinton interrupting the delegate roll call to
personally move Obama's nomination be made unanimous by acclimation.
Former President Bill Clinton enthusiastically jumped onto the
Obama bandwagon on Wednesday, giving a rousing pro-Obama speech
at the convention. Senator Joe Biden also gave a VP acceptance
speech which praised John McCain's record of service but blistered
his political stances. Biden clearly relishes taking up the traditional
runningmate role of being the ticket's attack dog.

ALASKA.
With 99.8% of the vote counted, embattled 18-term Congressman
Don Young (R) moved into a 152 vote lead over Lieutenant Governor
Sean Parnell in the GOP primary. State election officials say
several thousand requested absentee ballots have not yet been
returned and any ballots postmarked by primary day will be counted
so long as they are received within ten days of Tuesday's primary.
Thus, we won't know until late next week whether Young or Parnell
is the Republican nominee. The winner will face former State House
Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D) in November.

Very
brief posting today, as I didn't have time to write much on Tuesday
night. I was at the victory party for my
boss -- and she won re-election with 82%!!

ALASKA.
As exepcted, indicted US Senator Ted Stevens (R) easily won renomination
Tuesday in the seven-man GOP primary with 63% of the vote. His
nearest opponent, former State Representative Dave Cuddy, captured
27%. Stevens -- who goes on trial in Octorber on federal corruption
charges -- faces Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) in November.
The results of the hot GOP congressional primary remained undecided
in the early morning hours. With 89% of the vote counted, embattled
18-term Congressman Don Young (R) was trailing Lieutenant Governor
Sean Parnell by just 142 votes. State Representative Gabrielle
LeDoux was a distant third with just 9%. The official vote count
is being posted here.
Young is the target of an ongoing federal corruption probe. Former
State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz won the Democratic
primary for the congressional seat.

McCAIN.
According to various media reports, John McCain is now planning
to announce his VP pick on Friday, just one day after the close
of the Democratic convention.

DEMOCRATIC
CONVENTION. Tuesday night saw Senator Hillary Clinton's
big speech. Clinton said she was a "proud supporter of Barack
Obama" and added that "Barack Obama is my candidate.
And he must be our President."
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.27.08 | Permalink
|

TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.

ALASKA, FLORIDA PRIMARY PREVIEW; DEM CONVO UPDATE; SEVEN NEW POLLS.

There
may -- or may not -- be an update on Tuesday evening. I'll be
celebrating at the primary victory party for my
boss, so I may not post anything. Or maybe I will.

ALASKA.
The hottest political story of Tuesday
comes form the coldest state in the nation. US Senator Ted Stevens
(R) -- recently indicted on federal corruption charges -- is facing
an aggressive primary challenge from former State Representative
Dave Cuddy and wealthy businessman Vic Vickers. Polls, however,
show Stevens holding a landslide lead over his GOP foes. With
Stevens likely to win Tuesday's primary, he will remain a slim
underdog against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) in November.
The big upset on Tuesday may come in the at-large US House race.
Congressman Don Young (R) -- also the target of a federal corruption
probe -- appears much more endangered on Tuesday. Polls show the
powerful 18-term incumbent locked in a virtual tie with Lieutenant
Governor Sean Parnell for the Republican nomination, with State
Representative Gabrielle LeDoux trailing far behind. Popular Governor
Sarah Palin and the Club for Growth are backing Parnell, but Young
has been running a very feisty and combative campaign in these
final days. Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz
will easily win the Democratic congressional primary. If Young
wins the primary, Berkowitz will be a slight favorite in the general
election. If Parnell defeats Young, he will be favored to win
in November.

FLORIDA.
There are eleven congressional contests on Tuesday's ballot, with
two races of particular note. In CD-15, four Republicans are competing
to replace retiring Congressman Dave Weldon (R). State Senator
Bill Posey is solidly backed by Weldon and the GOP establishment,
and should win handily. In CD-16, the NRCC has made freshman Congressman
Tim Mahoney (D) one of the party's top 3 national targets. Mahoney
won in the fluke election after Congressman Mark Foley (R) was
forced to withdraw late in the race after being implicated in
a sex scandal. Three Republicans are battling it out for the seat,
with wealthy attorney Tom Rooney and State Representative Gayle
Harrell viewed as the frontrunners. Either one will make this
race a toss-up contest in November.

VEEPSTAKES.
Barack Obama
on Saturday selected former rival Joe Biden as his Vice Presidential
runningmate. Democratic leaders from across the party widely praised
the pick. On the GOP side, most also praised Biden -- but used
the selection to criticize Obama's by contrasting the two men's
experience. Now the veepstakes speculation shift to John McCain,
who is expected to announce his choice this coming Friday or Saturday.
Biden, FYI, is also a candidate for re-election this year. Delaware
law allows him to run simultaneously for US Senate and Vice President.

DEMOCRATIC
NATIONAL CONVENTION. The Democratic convention opens
on Monday in Denver. Despite the decision to place Hillary Clinton's
name in nomination and allow a Presidential roll call vote, look
for the convo to largely be -- at the surface level -- a well-orchestrated
love-fest. The key events to watch are the roll call vote and
the speeches of Obama, Biden and Hillary Clinton. The GOP convo
next week will also likely be equally free of major news.

SATURDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Barack Obama kept everyone waiting
on Friday -- but still no VP pick. Joe Biden and Chet Edwards
are both among those names still believed to be in play. Most
now believe Biden will be the VP candidate. NBC reports Evan Bayh
and Tim Kaine were among those who received calls from Obama informing
them they will not be the runningmate.Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 08.23.08 | Permalink
|

FRIDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Barack Obama made a VP announcement
on Thursday: "I know something you don't know" (well,
maybe I'm slightly misquoting him, but this is basically what
he said) ... John McCain and Obama exchanged jabs over their respective
homes. One (albeit big) for Obama, and seven (or maybe eight)
for McCain. McCain wasn't quite sure how many he has ... McCain
also told Politico he is absolutely "not considering"
making a single-term pledge.Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 08.22.08 | Permalink
|

THURSDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones
(D-OH) died unexpectedly Wednesday at age 58, less than a day
after suffering a brain aneurysm while driving to a meeting. Party
leaders will select a replacement nominee -- likely next month
-- to fill her safely Democratic CD-11 seat ... Also, we updated
our Wyoming and Washington
pages to reflect the primary winners from Tuesday ... And nothing
new on the VP front from either camp.Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 08.21.08 | Permalink
|

WEDNESDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Some rain, some wind, some waves ...
Fay was rather slow and boring (which was okay, compared with
the 2005 hurricanes) ... and nothing new on the VP front besides
lots of conflicting rumors. Also, here's something new: click
here to view our Ballot Access Chart
to see which Presidential candidates are on the ballot in your
state (note: keep in mind filing is still open in some states).Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 08.20.08 | Permalink
|

MONDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. While Hurricane Fay is expected to
sweep up and strike the gulf coast side of the Florida, those
of us here on the Atlantic coast are expected to experience tropical
storm conditions on Monday night/Tuesday daytime. Just some heavy
winds (under 40 mph) and lots of rain for us, so no big deal really.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 08.18.08 | Permalink
|

THURSDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Arkansas Democratic Chair Bill Gwatney
was shot and killed on Wednesday after a gunman burst into state
party headquarters. The shooter was later killed by police following
a high-speed chase ... John McCain launched a trial balloon in
an interview with the Weekly Standard when he said he
would now possibly be open to selecting a pro-choice VP runningmate
like Tom Ridge, but said he couldn't go so far as to consider
Mike Bloomberg because the NYC Mayor is just too staunchly pro-gay
rights.Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 08.14.08 | Permalink
|

FREE
SPEECH ZONE. With the Olympics starting on Friday, it
means most political news will take a back seat for a little while.
The Obama family is going off on vacation, and I'd guess that
John and Cindy McCain will also sneak off for a little down time.
Unless some major political news breaks, I'm just going to post
daily open threads until the end of the games.

TENNESSEE. Thursday's primary in the Volunteer
State saw another congressional incumbent defeated. In CD-1, former
Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe defeated freshman Congressman David
Davis in the GOP primary by vote of 50.2% to 49.2% -- and a slim
margin of exactly 500 votes. A third candidate captured 0.6% and
325 votes. It was a rematch from the 2006 primary, when Davis
edged Roe after several others from Roe's part of the district
split his base. A third rematch in 2010 already seems likely.
As for November, the seat is so reliably Republican that no Democrat
has won it in over 130 years. In CD-7, Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn
(R) defeated Shelby County Register Tom Leatherwood by a 2-to-1
margin. In CD-9, freshman Congressman Steve Cohen (D) won a surprisingly
easy victory over attorney Nikki Tinker. Cohen, who is white,
was expected to face a highly competitive Dem primary challenge
his largely African-American district. Tinker was one of several
black challengers two years ago who split the black vote, which
enabled Cohen to win in the 2006 primary by a very slim plurality.
On Thursday, by contrast, Cohen defeated Tinker by a 79% to 19%
vote. In the US Senate race, former State Democratic Chair Bob
Tuke defeated six rivals in his primary and will next face incumbent
Lamar Alexander (R) in November.Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 08.08.08 | Permalink
|

THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.

VEEP PICKS DEFERRED; NEW PREZ, US SEN, CONGRESS, GOV POLLS.

VEEPSTAKES.
Barack Obama's visit to Indiana -- accompanied by Evan Bayh --
came and went with no VP announcement. Lots of mutual praise,
but no Veep pick. In fact, it's starting to look like Obama plans
to go off on his Hawaii family vacation and seemingly defer making
any public pick until after the Olympics end. Ditto for McCain
likely to defer any VP decision until after the games end.

KANSAS.
The hottest Kansas race of the day was the GOP primary in CD-2. State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins
narrowly defeated social conservative former Congressman Jim Ryun by
a vote of 51% to 49%. Jenkins is a a GOP centrist, while Ryun is a leader of the Religious Right wing of the Kansas Republican Party. Jenkins is expected to be a highly competitive
challenger in the general election against vulnerable freshman
Congressman Nancy Boyda (D). Jenkins' first test will be to forge party unity after a bruising primary in a state well known for lasting rifts between the two rival GOP ideological factions. Also, as expected, former Congressman Jim Slattery (D) scored a landslide
win in his US Senate primary on Tuesday. Slattery will face US
Senator Pat Roberts (R) in November.

MICHIGAN.
Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick narrowly won her renomination fight in CD-13. Kilpatrick won 39%, followed by former State Representative Mary Waters
at 36%, and State Senator Martha Scott third with 25%. Kilpatrick enjoyed a lopsided advantage in primary campaign cash: $500,000 for the incumbent versus roughly $10,000 apiece spent by each of the two challengers. Waters said on Monday she
may continue her campaign into the general election as either
a write-in or under a third party banner. Waters refused to concede the race Tuesday night.

MISSOURI.
Congressman Kenny Hulshof defeated State Treasurer
Sarah Steelman in the costly gubernatorial primary by a vote
of 49% to 45%. Hulshof will face Attorney General Jay Nixon
(D) in November. In the open CD-9 contest to fill Hulshof's House
seat, former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer won the GOP nomination by a 9-point lead over the nearest of his four opponents. On the Dem
side, State Representative Judy Baker likewise won by a 9-point margin over the nearest of her three primary competitors.

GEORGIA.
Former State Representative Jim Martin (D) cruised on Tuesday
to an easy US Senate run-off victory over DeKalb County CEO Vernon
Jones. Martin had placed second in the primary, but the party
seemed to rally behind Martin over the past few weeks as Independent
polls show he was significantly stronger than Jones against US
Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) for the general election. Martin defeated
Jones by a 60% to 40% vote.

ANOTHER CONGRESSIONAL INCUMBENT COULD FALL ON PRIMARY DAY IN KANSAS,
MICHIGAN, MISSOURI; RUN-OFF DAY IN GEORGIA; AND SIX NEW PREZ POLLS.

KANSAS.
Former Congressman Jim Slattery (D) will win an easy victory in
Tuesday's US Senate primary. Slattery will face US Senator Pat
Roberts (R) in November. Senate race rating: GOP Favored. The
hot race to watch in the state on Tuesday is the GOP primary in
CD-2. State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins and former Congressman Jim
Ryun are locked in a very tough contest symbolic of the ongoing
split within the Kansas Republican Party. Jenkins is from the
moderate wing of the party, while Ryun is closely aligned with
the hardcore Religious Right faction. Traditionally the candidates
from the conservative wing of the party win low turnout primary
contests, so we'd give Ryun a slight edge. Either one will provide
a highly competitive challenge in the general election against
freshman Congressman Nancy Boyda (D). Boyda is possibly the most
endangered House Democrat in the nation. Race rating: No Clear
Favorite.

MICHIGAN.
There are five congressional primaries on Tuesday, but the only
race worth watching is the hot CD-13 Democratic primary. Congresswoman
Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick -- the mother and staunchest defender
of indicted Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick -- is facing the fight
of her political life. State Senator Martha Scott and former State
Representative Mary Waters are both aggressive challengers to
the incumbent, although recent polling shows Waters being the
stronger of the two. Kilpatrick is counting on the two challengers
splitting the opposition vote, allowing her to narrowly win another
term. However, Kilpatrick is clearly vulnerable and appears likely
to lose Tuesday if Waters can gain a solid advantage over Scott.
The winner of the primary -- any of the three -- will win in November
in this solidly Dem district.

MISSOURI.
Two Republicans -- Congressman Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer
Sarah Steelman -- are waging a costly gubernatorial primary to
replace unpopular retiring Governor Matt Blunt (R). Polls in the
final days show Hulhof holding an advantage. The winner will face
Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) in November. Race rating: Leans
DEM. The two CD-9 primaries for Hulshof's open seat are also hotly
contested, with five Republicans and four Democrats running. On
the GOP side, former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer
and State Representative Bob Onder are the frontrunners, although
former pro football player Brock Olivo also continues to generate
some attention. On the Dem side, State Representative Judy Baker
appears to be a slight favorite over former State House Speaker
Steve Gaw, former State Senator Ken Jacob and Marion County Commissioner
Lyndon Bode. The three men are all to the right of Baker, which
is likely help her by splitting the more centrist and Blue Dog
vote. Baker has also outraised her primary foes in campaign cash.
Race rating: GOP Favored.

GEORGIA.
Tuesday is also primary run-off day in the Peach State. While
DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones placed first in last month's Democratic
primary for US Senate, he is likely to lose today. The primary
opponents eliminated last month have rallied behind former State
Representative Jim Martin -- the '06 Lieutenant Governor nominee
-- and Martin appears likely to defeat Jones. Independent polls
also show Martin significantly stronger against US Senator Saxby
Chambliss (R) in the general election, although the incumbent
will still be favored over Martin.

VEEPSTAKES.The
new buzz this weekend -- and, let's face it, even the so-called
experts are all guessing here -- is that Obama plans to announce
Evan Bayh as his runningmate on Tuesday. Why? Because the Obama
press corps was informed over the weekend they will be in Indiana
on Tuesday and Wednesday, yet there are no campaign events in
the state on Obama's published schedule. On the GOP side, the
media's spotlight of speculation was shining on US House Chief
Deputy Minority Whip Eric Cantor. Cantor reportedly is being seriously
vetted. Why?x He's young, conservative, Jewish, and from the swing
state of Virginia. Stay tuned.