President Obama's immigration strategy in limbo

Shortly after the Senate passed an immigration bill late last month, President Barack Obama quizzed House Speaker John Boehner and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi during separate telephone calls: What could he do to help the House pass a bill?

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BTC: Immigration heads for slow death

Obama stayed out of the Senate debate because the bipartisan Gang of Eight did the work for him. Now, his top domestic priority rests with his perpetual nemesis — a fractured and inefficient House Republican Conference, which will hold a critical meeting Wednesday on immigration strategy. And his options for swaying the conservative House majority remain limited, at best.

An overtly partisan campaign would spark a backlash, uniting Republicans against the White House and the president’s vision of reform. Obama also can’t engage openly and directly with House Republicans because they don’t want to be seen working with him. At the very least, he will step up his public role by arguing that the economy would benefit from a reform bill and the Republican Party needs it politically.

But beyond that, Obama is waiting on House Republicans to decide what to do next, according to White House officials. And heading into Wednesday’s immigration meeting, the GOP is all over the place — unsure what will pass, when it will pass or if anything will pass at all. Some aren’t sure they want anything to pass.

“The fact that it’s not clear how the president is going to engage is striking, but it is largely a product of the dysfunction in the House,” said Marshall Fitz, a veteran immigration reform strategist who has discussed the president’s next steps with White House officials. “They are jousting with Jell-O.”

The White House will be more active in pressuring the House over the next few months, with the president and Cabinet officials doing speeches and events around the country, according to sources familiar with the administration’s plans.

A senior administration official said the White House is weighing its options and that the strategy depends on how the GOP plays its hand.

If the House makes progress in the next few weeks, Obama is expected to take a more restrained approach, emphasizing policy over politics. But if it becomes clear that the Republican leadership isn’t going to force any kind of bill through the House, Democrats expect Obama to drive up the political cost of inaction. The White House is hoping that others — Republican senators who voted for the bill, GOP establishment figures and party donors and advocacy organizations — take up the political campaign, allowing the president to remain above the fray.

The Republican leadership — namely Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) — prefer small immigration bills rather than the comprehensive approach that the president and Senate have embraced. The Senate and White House have all but ruled out the step-by-step approach. Cantor told a group of reporters in an off-the-record session Monday night that he didn’t feel any pressure to move a bill just because 14 Senate Republicans voted for it. During the session, which POLITICO did not attend, he said he wants to help children who were illegally brought to the U.S. by their parents.

At the same time, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) — whom some lawmakers see as the next speaker of the House — is meeting with House and Senate Republicans to try to find common ground on immigration policy. The meetings, which generally do not include GOP leadership, have been partially focused on identifying the narrow area where Senate Republicans who voted against the bill could find agreement with House Republicans. This could help guide the process in the House.

Ryan has also been canvassing House Republicans, trying to determine where they stand.