The public outrage over the mass shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School has elevated the once-dormant gun control debate to the point where President Barack Obama has called for stricter gun laws.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean a bill will actually reach his desk.

The seeming pro-gun control consensus among Democrats will likely meet stiff resistance among Republicans.

The next leader of the House Judiciary Committee has already signaled opposition to new firearms restrictions, and gun control advocates may not – at least not yet – be strong enough to leverage public grieving over the shootings to push new gun controls through the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

“I think the chances of something coming through the House are pretty good, but whether there is significant reform remains to be seen,” University of Redlands political scientist Renee Van Vechten said. “We’ll probably get symbolic legislation but probably not true reform.”

President Obama on Wednesday announced he has selected Vice President Joe Biden, author of a 1994 law that included a 10-year assault weapons ban, to lead a group charged with developing proposals for reducing gun violence.

Obama said he wants Biden’s group to produce ideas no later than January.

Virginia Republican Bob Goodlatte, who was recently chosen as the next chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, told Roll Call on Tuesday that he is not willing to pursue new laws such as banning assault weapons or high-capacity magazines, two cornerstones of the 1994 gun law that many Congressional Democrats want to re-enact.

Roll Call quotes Goodlatte as bluntly saying “gun control is not going to be something that I would support.”

In a statement provided to the Los Angeles News Group on Wednesday, Goodlatte said: “We must take a close look at what happened last week. I will listen to and carefully review suggestions made by the president’s task force and other groups to see what we can do to prevent a terrible tragedy like this in the future.”

Rep. Judy Chu, D-El Monte, who sits on the Judiciary Committee, said a bill to ban assault weapons and provide for more comprehensive background checks of firearms purchasers needs to be passed.

“Gunmen armed for war have no place in a society intent on peace. … I’m disappointed to hear that some in Congress have already drawn a line in the sand – standing by the gun lobby will only allow another Sandy Hook to take place,” Chu said in a statement.

Politicians and commentators had largely preoccupied themselves with the arguments over the “fiscal cliff” and national debt reduction in the weeks after the November election.

The political conversation, however, changed after Friday’s mass shooting in Newtown, Conn.

Twenty small children and six adults died at the school. Gunman Adam Lanza, reported to have used an AR-15 semiautomatic rifle, killed himself at the scene of the shooting and also killed his mother before going to the school.

Feinstein’s bill would identify more than 100 specific weapons for prohibition and also ban large capacity magazines that carry more than 10 rounds.

The federal government has not enforced a weapons limitation on that scale since 2004, when the 1994 ban expired.

The 1994 measure prohibited at least 118 semiautomatic rifles, shotguns and pistols including semiautomatic variants of the AK-47 or magazines that carry more than 10 cartridges.

In most cases, the ban was based on whether weapons had at least two military features, such as a threaded barrel that can accept a silencer, the ability to accept large-capacity magazines or, in the case on long guns, folding stocks and pistol grips.

A 2004 Department of Justice report concluded the 1994 ban had only a mixed record in reducing gun crimes, given the rarity of assault rifle use in most crimes and the easy availability of pre-ban weapons and magazines.

If Goodlatte and other House Republicans maintain their opposition to gun controls, it will be very difficult to re-enact an assault weapons ban, Claremont McKenna College political scientist Jack Pitney said.

“The less restrictive the bill is, the better the chances are of it actually passing,” Pitney said.

Pitney said he considers a ban on large-capacity magazines to be a major development, given the views present in the Republican-controlled House.

Some of the big questions as politicians prepare to debate gun control relate to public opinion and whether the public outrage over Sandy Hook will last long enough to keep the issue at the top of the nation’s concerns.

A Gallup Poll published on Tuesday showed 42 percent of Americans contend banning assault weapons would be a “very effective” method to prevent mass shootings at schools while 21 percent said a ban would be a “somewhat effective” means to stop such crimes.

Polling also showed that a greater armed police presence at campuses, increased federal spending for mental health screenings and treatment and less violent programming in television, cinema and video games were seen as more popular methods to prevent future school shootings.

Even if a majority of Americans support an assault weapons ban, that may not be enough to sway the House, Pitney said.

House members who represent districts where gun ownership remains popular will not abandon their constituencies to meet national opinion, he said.

Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC, said public shock over previous mass shootings has tended to fade, but he expects the Sandy Hook shooting to remain in the public consciousness for a duration longer than other similar crimes.

That doesn’t guarantee a major bill will become law, but increases its probability, he said.

“It’s more likely that we’ll see significant legislation in this arena than we have in many years,” Schnur said. “It’s still an uphill challenge, but the hill’s not nearly as steep as it was a week ago.”

Andrew Edwards covers business and higher education for the Long Beach Press-Telegram. He has previously covered City Hall in Long Beach. He has spent his entire career in Southern California, having worked at publications including the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, The Sun and Daily Pilot before coming to Long Beach. He graduated from UCLA in 2003 after studying political science and history.

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