THIS BLOG RATES THE S&P 500 BUY/SELL/OR HOLD EACH DAY WITH 2-GOALS FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENTS: (1) PRESERVE CAPITAL (2) BEAT THE S&P 500.
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Friday, April 1, 2016

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS

- Friday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.6% to 2073 at
the close.-VIX fell about 6% to 13.10.-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.79% BROKEN RECORDI am still negative on the markets because short-term
indicators are still pointing down.That
may be hard to accept, because they have been suggesting down for some time and
the market has not yet agreed.As of Friday, the S&P 500 has climbed slightly above a
point at which I reduced stock holdings on 30 December.I am also losing in the higher-risk, short-term, trading
portfolio since I am still short. That’s why I have frequently commented here that
traders should keep the trading portfolio small so if losses are incurred, they
will not harm one’s overall financial health.MONEY TREND & SHORT TERM TRADINGThe short-term Money Trend indicator is neutral at this
point. I continue to hold short positions mostly in SH and some in QID. MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)(I am getting data from various sites. Some of the numbers
are subject to minor revision so the previous day’s numbers may be slightly
different than reported yesterday.)The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) fell to 53.9% Friday. It was 57.1% Thursday. (A number above
50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing
stocks slipped to 51.6%. A value above 50% generally indicates an up-trend, but
the slope of the 200-dMA is still down, so the trend must still be considered down.
The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) fell, but remained positive. New-highs again outpaced New-lows. The spread (new-highs
minus new-lows) was +172 Friday. (It was +161 Thursday.)The 10-day moving average of the change in
spread rose to +1. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the
spread has INCREASED by 1 each day. Market
Internals switched from positive to neutral on the markets.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late.They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.

NTSMFriday, Price & VIX were positive. Sentiment & Volume
were neutral.The long-term NTSM
indicator is BUY. I have not followed the guidance yet. My numbers suggest that
the Index is topping out. I have been saying that for a while as the market has
moved up; but there are some topping indicators (RSI & the Breadth Index
Top Indicator suggest top real soon.We’ll see.

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:

TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATIONOn 30 Dec I reduced my invested position in my retirement
account to 30% invested in stocks thru an S&P 500 Index fund (“C”-fund in
the TSP) and on 15 Jan I reduced stock allocation to zero in long-term
accounts. The S&P 500 peaked in Mid-May and has not been able
to break higher in the past 10-months. That looks like a top to me. See “Why
the Bull Market May be Dead” in my 14 December blog at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/12/stocks-are-topping-time-to-sell-hussman.html

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About Me

I am an engineer with a lifelong interest in "playing with numbers" so what could be more fun than trying to develop a system that beats the stock market? Well, lots of things, but I decided to do this anyway.
While I am not a finance-professional, or professional investor, I have developed some skills.
I competed in two CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio contests finishing in the top 4% in 2008 (34,320th of 800,000) and the top 0.1% (448th of 500,000) in 2009. More importantly, I managed to sell out of my retirement accounts at or near the top in 2000 and 2007 and bought close enough to the bottom that I didn’t lose too much sleep. (Even Bill Gates lost SOME sleep.)
I hope that my thoughts will help you achieve your investing goals. Please remember that my ideas are free and there may be times when my ideas are worth less than what you paid.