Iraq adventure leaves little taste for possible Taiwan call-up

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Australia's ultimate foreign policy nightmare would be a war
between the current superpower, the US, and the potential one,
China.

Unfortunately, it is not an impossibly remote prospect but one
that could break out over Taiwan.

Australia would be under pressure to choose sides. The Lowy
Institute opinion poll shows the pressure of public opinion is
decisively against Australia choosing the US side.

It is not that Australians hold the ANZUS treaty in low regard.
Indeed, consistent with opinion polling on the subject for decades,
a solid majority ranked the alliance as important for the nation's
security: 72 per cent said it was very important or fairly
important.

It is just that the public evidently does not want the treaty
invoked if it would lead us to war against China in the defence of
Taiwan. Such a decision was opposed, coincidentally, by 72 per cent
of respondents.

The information in the poll cannot explain why, but it hints at
two explanations.

First, remarkably, more Australians apparently feel positive
towards China than towards the US, by 69 per cent to 58 per cent.
And they favour the prospect of a free-trade agreement with China
over the one Australia has struck with the US.

Second, the Howard Government's decision to join the US in
invading Iraq has divided Australians and left a big majority - 68
per cent - feeling the country is sycophantic towards
Washington.

In this sense, the Government's willingness to support
Washington in the Middle East seems to have undercut the popular
willingness to support the US in our own region.

But a government would not decide such a grave matter on the
basis of popular opinion - the Howard Government defied public
sentiment in deciding to join the invasion of Iraq - and nor should
it.

A cogent Australian government argument in favour of supporting
the US could even turn public opinion around. With such strong
bedrock support for the ANZUS alliance, a government that turned a
Taiwan contingency into an alliance issue rather than a China v US
question might well win over the popular mind.

But for Washington policymakers this poll's conclusion is that
the US does not have the hearts or minds of Australians if push
came to shove between the reigning power and the rising one.