Dothan Area Weather Forecast Jan 6

The main concern for the overnight period was related to temperature trends and minimum wind chills.

Temperatures today have generally tracked above model guidance expectations, so we will be starting the evening cooling at a warmer point than our previous forecasts have indicated.

Model guidance overnight also has come in a degree or two warmer in general.

We continue to lean toward warmer raw model guidance as the boundary layer is expected to be well-mixed with winds around 10 knots overnight.

There weren`t major changes made to the forecast overnight, but theslightly warmer trend makes sub-zero wind chills less likely inour forecast area.

Wind chill guidance has become more tightly clustered around the middle single digits in the northern part of our area for 12z Tuesday.

Therefore, we have converted the Wind Chill Watch to a Wind Chill Advisory, as warning criteria in our forecast area is 0.

We also still expect a long-duration hard freeze overnight, and the freeze may not end during the day Tuesday in the northern third of the area (more on that in the next discussion section).

Everywhere else, durations below freezing look to be around 12 hours in the far SE (near Cross City) to around 18-20 hours near the Florida and Alabama/Georgia border regions.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Temperatures will remain very cold on Tuesday as a the arctic hightracks eastward along the northern Gulf Coast.

Looking at the recent performance of the guidance with temperatures in our area as well as upstream, the raw daytime guidance appears to be running a little to cold, so have kept max temps for Tuesday a bit closer to the MOS guidance.

Even with this adjustment, still expect temperatures across the northern counties to remain below freezing all day on Tuesday.

South of this, expect highs only in the mid 30s.

The forecast max temperature of 35 at Tallahassee would be the coldest max temperature since 1996.

Another hard freeze is expected on Wednesday morning as theanticyclone makes its closest approach to the area.

Two factors may impact the eventual lows by diminishing the effect ofradiational cooling.

First, as the night wears on, the surface high will be sliding northeast into the Carolina Piedmont. This will allow the gradient to tighten slightly across the forecast area, possibly generating just enough wind to keep the boundary layer from fully decoupling.

Second, models are indicating some high clouds moving across the southern half of the area Tuesday night, which would further diminish radiational cooling.

Given these factors, have kept min temperatures closer to raw guidance numbers and above the lower/mid teens suggested by the MOS guidance.

This will lead to lows in the upper teens to lower 20s for most of thearea, still firmly in hard freeze territory.

The airmass will modify on Wednesday, with highs reaching theupper 40s to lower 50s.

Moisture will begin to increase from the east Wednesday night, with lows ranging from the upper 20s over the western zones to the lower 40s in the southeastern Big Bend.

Another hard freeze is not expected at this time.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

As an upper level trough lifts up the NErn CONUS, the Arctic airmasswill shift northeastward and allow the slow return of warmer, moistair to the region.

By the end of the week, two shortwave impulses will propagate through the upper level longwave pattern.

On Thursday, the first impulse will increase moisture and rain chances along the coast east of Panama City.

The second impulse will deepen more and is forecast to develop acold front that will move through the area Saturday and Sunday (rainchances 30-50%).

Temperatures Thursday will be closer to average with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s Thursday night .

Daytime temperatures across the area will warm to the upper 60s and low 70s for the weekend.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions at all terminals now with skies clearing.

Northwest winds will be gusty through 22-00z, with NW winds around 10 knots tonight and Tuesday morning.

MARINE...

Winds gusting to gale force and waves over 10 feet will graduallydiminish starting this evening as high pressure moves eastwardalong the northern Gulf Coast.

Expect the offshore Gale Warning to be dropped by the evening update, with Small Craft Advisories continuing through late Tuesday morning.

Conditions will then continue to slowly improve through late week with light to moderate northeasterly flow.

FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity values will plunge into the low 20s Tuesday asmore of the very dry, cold air moves into the region.

Winds will lower as the surface high pressure slides further south, however, preventing us from reaching red flag criteria.

Moisture will begin to return to the region Wednesday.

No red flag conditions are anticipated fore the next several days.

HYDROLOGY...

The only river that remains near flood stage is the Apalachicola River near Blountstown.

The river is curently at 14.8 feet and is expected to reach flood stage early tomorrow morning.

The river will continue to rise to 15.9 feet on Wednesday morning and then will fall below flood stage by Thursday morning.

The next chance for measurable rainfall is Thursday but more likely Saturday.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

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