Synopsis

Bound for a remote planet on the far side of the galaxy, the crew of the colony ship Covenant discovers what they think is an uncharted paradise, but is actually a dark, dangerous world—whose sole inhabitant is the “synthetic” David, survivor of the doomed Prometheus expedition.

Alien: Covenant is the biggest release on this week’s list, but the franchise is off its peak and has been for a long time. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are not a lot of them. If I were to stretch the definition, Food Wars: Season One is great, if you are into that subgenre of Anime. Descendants 2 is arguably better than the original, but the DVD isn’t going to really appeal to those outside the target audience. That leaves The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: 50th Anniversary Blu-ray as the clear winner for Pick of the Week.
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War for the Planet of the Apes started its box office run with $5 million in Thursday previews, which is a little lower than expected, but not tragically so. For example, Alien: Covenant earned $4.2 million during its previews on its was to a $36.16 million weekend. If War for the Planet of the Apes has the same legs, it would make $43 million this weekend. On the other hand, The Mummy earned $2.66 million pulling in $31.67 million during its opening weekend. If War for the Planet has the same legs as that film, it would earn just shy of $60 million during its opening weekend. War has much better reviews than either of those films, to it could have better legs than either of those films. That said, it is also the third installment in the reboot franchise and that tends to shrink legs. The average is just over $50 million, which sounds about right.
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I’ve seen a lot of people attacking Rotten Tomatoes recently saying it is bad for the movie business. Some even point to Transformers: The Last Knight as proof that the site can ruin a film’s box office chances. Besides that charge, the other two main complaints I’m hearing over and over again are A.) Rotten Tomatoes is a very shallow site, especially the Tomatometer. And B.) It is killing in-depth critical examination of movies. I’ll tackle those claims below.
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The Mummy remained on top of the international box office chart, but it fell more than 60% to $53.0 million in 68 markets for totals of $239.1 million internationally and $296.2 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in France, but with just $3.0 million on 615 screens. Its biggest market overall was China, where it was down 77% to $11.63 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $81.62 million. Its best market is arguably South Korea, where it added $3.73 million on 933 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $23.64 million. The only major market left for the film is Japan, where it opens at the end of the month. It is on pace for about $400 million worldwide, which is not enough to pay for its $195 million production budget. Even if it is a bigger than expected hit on the home market, it will have trouble covering its combined production and advertising budget, which is at least $300 million.
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Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales dominated the international box office earning five times more than the rest of the top five combined. The film pulled in $208.4 million in 54 markets and had $271.4 million worldwide by the end of its first weekend. Its biggest single market was China, where it earned $68.55 million over the weekend. This is bigger than its domestic opening. While this is impressive, it is only the third biggest opening in China for a Disney film, behind Avengers: Age of Ultron and Captain America: Civil War. On the other hand, the film had a big opening in Russia with $19.10 million, which is the biggest opening weekend in that market of all time. However, it wasn’t all good news, as the only market left to open in is Japan, so it will have to rely on long legs to continue its run.
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Memorial Day long weekend wasn’t as potent as expected as both new releases struggled. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales led the way with $78.47 million over four days. This marks the third year in a row where no film released on Memorial Day long weekend earned at least $100 million over four days. I’ve heard some talk that this means it is losing its importance as a long weekend. However, I think the actual answer is much simpler, as it is also the third weekend in a row where no wide releases have earned overall positive reviews. I don’t think the box office power of Memorial Day has dropped since X-Men: Days of Future Past came out. I just think the quality of films has dropped since then. Speaking of lack of quality, Baywatch was DOA earning just $27.71 million over five days and unlike Dead Men Tell No Tales, it likely won’t do significantly better internationally. Despite both new releases struggling, the holiday helped the overall box office grow 14% from last weekend to $141 million. Unfortunately, this was 14% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 still maintains its lead over 2016, but that lead as slipped to 2.6% or $110 million at $4.46 billion to $4.35 billion.
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As expected, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned first place at the Friday box office. Unfortunately, it missed the low end of expectations with $23.40 million, putting it on pace for a $62 million three-day weekend and a $73 million total opening. The film’s reviews are just 32% positive, putting it in a tie with On Stranger Tides for worst in the franchise. On the other hand, the film earned an A minus from CinemaScore compared to a B plus for the previous installment, so that should help its legs a little. That said, the film cost $230 million to make, so unless it is a monster hit at the international box office, there’s little hope the sequel teased in the end credits will happen.
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Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales will have no trouble earning first place at the weekend box office, not after earning $5.5 million in previews last night. This would have given it number one for the night, if the numbers weren’t rolled into its Friday debut. On Stranger Tides managed $4.7 million during its midnight shows, but it was truly a midnight show, rather than starting at 7 pm like Dead Men Tell No Tales did. This is 30% higher than Alien: Covenant managed last week, but well behind the $8.2 million X-Men: Apocalypse managed this weekend last year. Dead Men Tell No Tales will need serious growth to match our previous prediction of $67 million / $82 million debut. On the positive side, it is a long weekend and that will undoubtedly help. On the negative side, its reviews are quite terrible.
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Dangal became the first Indian film to have its biggest single market not be India. It earned first place in China with $34.22 million over the weekend for totals of $113.55 million in China, $185.6 million internationally, and $198.0 million worldwide. It will shortly become the second Indian film to earn more than $200 million worldwide.
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Alien: Covenant opened with $4.2 million in previews last night, which is about what we expected. Maybe it’s a bit higher that anticipated. In fact, it is a little better than the $3.7 million Kong managed. The film won’t have the same legs, as it is a sequel and those tend to be more front-loaded. Furthermore, its reviews have slipped to 72% positive, which isn’t good enough to truly help its legs. We predicted a little under $40 million, but now a little over $40 million seems more likely.
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Alien: Covenant is looking to unseat Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the box office chart this weekend. Meanwhile, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul and Everything, Everything are just trying to survive in counter-programming roles. The prognosis for those two is mixed. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, there were five films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. This year, there might be only two. Hopefully the new releases aren’t that bad, while the holdovers don’t completely collapse. If this happens, 2017 could win in the year-over-year comparison for the second weekend in a row. If not, then 2017's winning streak will end at one.
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For the third weekend in a row, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 led the international box office chart, earning $52.2 million in 56 markets for totals of $384.4 million internationally and $632.8 million worldwide. This pushes it into seventh place on the MCU chart. The film opened in second place in Japan, where it pulled in $3.0 million, which is 15% better than the original Guardians of the Galaxy did. On the downside, this is the film’s last market to open in, so it will be coasting on holdovers from now on. Speaking of holdovers, the film’s biggest market is China, where it added $15.16 million over the weekend for a total of $80.56 million. This is the film’s biggest single market and it could hit $100 million there shortly.
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There are three wide releases coming out next week, but only one of them, Alien: Covenant, has any real chance at earning first place. (Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul and Everything, Everything could become midlevel hits.) Because of this, it’s the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Alien: Covenant.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Home Media Magazine.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

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