Big cities in China, India and Latin America with over 500 000 inhabitants will more than double their share of world passenger transport emissions by 2050 to 20% (2010: 9%), if current urban transport policies remain unchanged. 38% of the total growth in world surface transport passenger emissions to 2050 will come from big cities in these three regions in such a business-as-usual scenario.

These new projections, released today by the International Transport Forum (ITF) at the OECD during the COP20 climate change negotiations in Lima, Peru, highlight a critical choice for policy makers: whether to pursue urbanisation based on public transport or on private transport with cars and two-wheelers.

Sustained policies that promote either private or public urban transport lead to very different mobility futures, as projections for modal shares in 2050 show (see chart 1 below):

In India,

• a private transport-oriented policy for cities would lead to two thirds (67%) of urban mobility being covered by car traffic, with motorised two- and three-wheelers (17%, 5%) and public transport (11%) accounting for only a third;

• with pro-public transport policies, the share of buses and other public transport forms could be almost four times as high and reach 39% - practically on par with car travel (40%). Two- and three-wheelers would cover 12% and 9% respectively.

In Latin America,

• a public transport-oriented policy would result in a 50% share for public transport, 44% for cars, and 7% for two-wheelers in big cities.

• private transport-oriented policies would lead to an 82% share for cars, 11% for public transport, and 6% for two-wheelers.

In China,

• an urban policy with few new roads and stringent expansion in car ownership restrictions would lead to a 44% share for cars and a 34% for public transport; with two-wheelers taking 10%.

• in absence of these measures, cars would account for 78% of urban mobility, with two-wheelers representing 13% and public transport only 9% of the modal split.

These alternative scenarios have profound impacts for the contribution of urban transport to global emissions, according to the ITF projections (see chart 2 below):

• In India, policies that favour car-use could increase emission growth by 47%. Policies that favour public transport could reduce it by 37% (see chart 1).

• In Latin America, policies that encourage private transport would add 35%, while public transport-driven urbanisation could reduce emissions growth by 31%.

• In China, emissions would grow by 19% above 2010 levels if cities were to support individual transport, but fall by 26% assuming a shift to public transport.

Understanding context, drivers, and effects of policies is crucial to achieving the desired results. For instance, if a ban on motorised three-wheelers in Indian cities reduced their number by 80% by 2050, this would lead to a mere 4% reduction in CO2 emissions as people switch to two-wheelers. Reduced mobility for others would impose a social cost.

The ITF Urban Transport Model now allows testing policies that focus on avoiding unnecessary mobility and shifting mobility to modes that emit less (“avoid-shift”), rather than on the effects of improved technology for emissions mitigation.

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