The Hot Hand Phenomenon

Description

The Hot Hand Phenomenon occurs where people believe that 'success breeds
success' such that when a person succeeds at something then they are more likely
to succeed in subsequent attempts, whereas the truth is that they are still
governed by the laws of chanced.

Whilst there is some truth in this in that a person may be particularly fit
or their confidence is boosted by an initial success, the 'Hot Hand' phenomenon
goes past this where people make assumptions that are statistically inaccurate.

Xu and Harvey found, surprisingly, that winners were more
likely to win and losers more likely to lose. This was because winners tended to
follow risky bets with safer bets, while losers tended to follow losing bets
with more risky bets.

The Hot Hand Phenomenon is also known as the Hot Hand Fallacy, and is
sometimes contrasted with the Gambler's Fallacy, where reversals of fortune are
assumed.

Research

Gilovich, Vallone, & Tversky questioned 100 basketball fans. 91% thought a
player has a better chance of making a shot after having just made his last two
or three shots than he does after having just missed his last two or three
shots.

Given a player who makes 50% of his shots, these subjects thought that the
shooting percentage would be 61% after having just made a shot 42% after having
just missed a shot.

84% thought it important to pass the ball to someone who has just made
several shots in a row.

A later statistical analysis of shots showed that these assessments were
wildly inaccurate.

Example

A soccer player scores two goals. More of his team mates start passing him
the ball more often in the assumption he is 'on the ball'.

So What?

Using it

Talk up how you (or others) are 'on form' as you encourage them to support
you.

Defending

If a player (including you) seems hot, enjoy the skill but do not bet on the
'run' continuing.