Look at the photo with this column. It’s of an audio microcassette I found in my desk drawer yesterday while madly looking for something else in my overgrown office. As you may be able to read on the picture, it is an interview with Bill Gates from June, 1998. That’s the interview I did for my ill-fated Vanity Fair piece on the relationship between Bill Gates and Steve Jobs. It is almost sixty minutes entirely devoted to Bill talking about Steve. Quite a historical document, especially since its contents have never been published. And they won’t be here, either, except for one short quote that stood out when I listened to the tape today after almost 12 years.

“What I can’t figure out is why he (Steve Jobs) is even trying (to be the CEO of Apple)? ” wondered Bill. “He knows he can’t win.”

It is easy to see what Gates meant if you look at a comparison of the two companies in June, 1998. Microsoft stock was around $29 with a market capitalization of $250 billion. Apple’s stock was at $7.25, triple what it had been a year before when Microsoft had stepped-in to bolster Apple with a $150 million investment, but still worth a market cap of only $6 billion. In terms of products, market share, cash flow, and general strategy Microsoft had it all over Apple in 1998 and the idea that Jobs would ever catch up to Gates was, at the time, ludicrous.

But look at the two companies today. Jobs is still running Apple despite cancer and a liver transplant while Gates has moved on to saving the world at the Gates Foundation. Microsoft is worth $240 billion, a tiny drop from 12 years ago, with the shares now around $27 (down from $29). Nothing gained in more than a decade. Apple shares, on the other hand, have gone from $7.25 to almost $240, Apple’s market cap has risen more than 33X from $6 billion to $220 billion. And Cupertino’s cash hoard today is almost exactly the same as Microsoft’s at around $40 billion.

It’s pretty easy to argue that Jobs did win. Certainly Apple has the mojo lately with its string of home run products like the iMac, iPod, iPhone, and now the iPad. Even Mac market share is up in the double digits and Apple’s profit margins are the best in the industry. The trend line is definitely up for Apple and mildly down for Microsoft.

What Bill Gates didn’t count on when he declared Jobs a loser back in 1998, was the Californian’s tenacity. It took 12 years to do it, but Apple is well positioned now to take Microsoft’s crown.

I mean it. Look at the downward price erosion of Microsoft Office caused by a combination of Open Office and iWork, which is down to $30 on the iPad.

How long will it be until Apple is giving iWork away to sell hardware — an option Microsoft doesn’t have? Not long. By then a bit more of Redmond’s goose will have been cooked.

That was the only one to win. IBM/M$ won the PC war because there was no entrenched provider. Stevie clearly understood that, and went into the appliance-driven-by-cpu business. One could argue that the auto industry has nearly gotten there.

Geoff
April 9, 2010 at 4:39 am

Perhaps. But the iPod was not introduced until 2001, 3 years after that interview. And the iPod was not an Apple idea. It’s not made clear in the iPod wikipedia article, but Tony Fadell approached Apple with the iPod idea after he couldn’t convince his former employer, RealNetworks, to pursue it.

But I do think that Jobs recognized the hardware/software (software in this case being music) combination that had made the Macintosh successful. The success of the iPod led to the iPhone which has lead to the iPad. The Apple Store idea has also been a HUGE success for Apple. It was originally thought that it would just break even, that they would essentially be buying market share. But the Apple retail stores have been a runaway hit and hugely profitable. Have you ever seen an Apple retail store that wasn’t busy? That’s a rare moment.

Steve Jobs is clearly a talented guy who sets a high bar and gets his people to rise to the occasion. But he is also a very lucky guy. Luck, in this case, being defined as recognizing an opportunity when it presents itself and having the ability to take advantage of it. One of Steve’s obvious talents is to see the value in something new that others don’t see.

Cris E
April 9, 2010 at 9:06 am

“But I do think that Jobs recognized the hardware/software (software in this case being music) combination that had made the Macintosh successful. The success of the iPod led to the iPhone which has lead to the iPad… One of Steve’s obvious talents is to see the value in something new that others don’t see.”

This is a huge point. Jobs was one of the first to look past software merely being tools to make the hardware do something and see Content as the software that would drive the industry. And I think a big part of that was because he looked past business as *the* market and really went for the user dollar where style and consumption were more the focus. When he changed the model to use hardware to extract the software dollar rather than the other way around he changed the entire industry. Lots of credit is due him for the insight and the execution.

Bubba
April 9, 2010 at 1:45 pm

All of the successes that Jobs has had with his return to Apple are based on the foundation of OS X. Apple’s commitment to open standards (and building high-value proprietary offerings on those standards) didn’t hurt either.

Apple’s ability to move as fast as they did with their OS, iTunes, iPods, and iPhones was a direct result of NextStep roots – remember their steady, regular, compelling updates while Microsoft was thrashing through Vista? Remember how they had OS X running on the Intel platform 5 years before they announced (or even admitted) it?

I don’t think that being prepared and then taking advantage of opportunities when they present themselves is luck.

Sunny Guy
April 10, 2010 at 12:48 pm

I don’t believe Mac OS X was ever ported to the Intel X86 architecture. I’d bet dollars to donuts that it was developed in parallel, on both PowerPC and Intel. The precursor to Mac OS X was called Rhapsody. Around 1997, I had developer copies of Rhapsody: one for PowerPC, and one for Intel. When exactly do you think Apple would have scrapped that project, and put all their eggs in one basket? How about the first of never? And look what happened: they did eventually migrate. Surprise.

Sunny Guy

Passing Stranger
April 11, 2010 at 12:45 pm

Mac OS X derived in large part from NeXTStep, which had been ported from NeXT’s 68k architecture to x86, HP PA-RISC, and SPARC prior to Apple’s acquisition of NeXT. It’s indeed quite possible that Apple kept x86 hardware (and maybe other architectures) around in order to keep the source code up to date for just such an opportunity.

Ben
April 10, 2010 at 7:25 am

There is wired interview with Steve from 1995 (before return to apple) where he outlines the iPad strategy as the next thing.

jmmx
April 11, 2010 at 9:04 am

Geoff:

Very good comment, but I beg to differ on a couple of details.

1-
“But I do think that Jobs recognized the hardware/software (software in this case being music) combination that had made the Macintosh successful. ”

The software that made the iPod successful was NOT the music – it was the User Interface. This is precisely where Apple/Jobs excel. I have no idea what Fadell brought to Apple, but I would imagine that Apple played a huge roll in refining the UI. This, along with the storage capacity, was the main selling point of the iPod and remains today one of the big differentiators.

2-
“Steve Jobs is clearly a talented guy who sets a high bar and gets his people to rise to the occasion. But he is also a very lucky guy. Luck, in this case, being defined as recognizing an opportunity when it presents itself and having the ability to take advantage of it. ”

Your definition of luck is mistaken. Luck is being in the right place to hear about something (PARC’s GUI, Fadell coming with the iPod concept). As your last sentence states, RECOGNIZING is a talent.

One could argue that nothing is new, only an evolution of previous ideas/technology. Yet the iPod & iPhone were very new in that they created a simplified interface to what was a real problem in the past.

Met a young woman the other day – absolutely loves her iPhone. Apps? None. Browse web? Almost never – uses her computer. She just loves the interface. Simple as that.

Andre Richards
April 9, 2010 at 10:46 am

You’re right about that. I have an old issue of Wired from 1996 where Steve Jobs (then CEO of NeXT) was asked about what he’d do if he came back to Apple. He was very blunt and said he’d milk the Mac platform for everything it’s worth while getting started on the next big thing.

PIF
April 10, 2010 at 6:04 am

and, I think, Jobs then added, “I’ll sell it.”

Eric
April 11, 2010 at 6:25 am

Of course, at the time Apple was on the skids, and Jobs didn’t have any idea NeXT was going to falter so badly they would have to sell themselves to Apple. He took the opportunity when he ended up in the right position to take control of Apple and to create a new company. And that’s what he did.

And he didn’t sell it. The Mac is still making more than half of their profits and it’s growing at twice the rate PCs are. Things change. And Jobs being the visionary who can turn on a dime, he’s not about to do what he predicted 15 years ago.

I think you don’t understand how a PE works. Apple is more highly values in relation to its current earnings power because the market believes it has enormous future earnings power, more than Microsoft has.

KenC
April 11, 2010 at 6:32 am

PE ratios tell you nothing about the strength of a company.

Besides, that Forbes ratio is for the last fiscal year, and does not even include the latest quarters, so you don’t even have the current ratios.

Roland
April 9, 2010 at 1:13 am

iWork is great, but do I really want to write articles and books on an iPad? I like real keys that I can hit with 99.9 percent accuracy without looking at them.

Jeremy
April 9, 2010 at 10:47 am

Not a problem. Use your favorite Bluetooth keyboard. I’ve just been taking my iMac’s keyboard with me – works pretty well as it’s so small.

markup languages require explicit coding to process the markup. the browsers, needed to process html, didn’t just appear deus ex machina, and aren’t something Joe Sixpack is going to clone for somebody’s new markup. this is why xml has turned out to be a turd. xml is not self-describing. if it were, automated code generators could be fed an xml file, generate and compile the code, then run the derived program to process the xml file with precision. that doesn’t happen, of course. each new xml file requires lots and lots of coding to process.

Ray
April 9, 2010 at 12:54 pm

Uh, that happens millions of times every day as thousands of XML-driven web applications process and transform XML using machine generated code derived from the XML described structure of the XML source data. Maybe you have something else in mind?

dt
April 10, 2010 at 5:21 pm

…not to mention the fact that iWork files are bundles of XML to begin with. Joe Keynote and Suzy Pages are using XML whether they know it or not.

Gates set a condition that I not use the interview for anything other than Vanity Fair. Pam Edstrom, his long-time handler, says it right on the tape. I agreed, thinking of course that Jobs would follow-through as he had promised but then he didn’t. It’s been such a long time that I feel okay letting dribs and drabs go, but I can’t imagine I’d publish the whole tape, having not done anything like that before.

Bob, your position regarding the tape is completely the right thing to do. While I’m sure -a lot- of people would love to hear the history contained in that cassette – your integrity is much more valuable.

Cris E
April 9, 2010 at 8:59 am

Of course, if you could get Vanity Fair back to the table today…

Maybe Steve would like to hear it and respond after all. It might be a better story as a retrospective twelve years down the road with a lot of the results in the books.

Good thing the resolution on this iPad is so good that I can see the bits on the tape when I zoom in. I’ll post the audio as soon as I get it all scanned.

Tomek
April 9, 2010 at 6:01 pm

Say Bob, if someone accidentally stole that tape and published it like those fake sex tapes that would keep your integrity in check and provide a juicy historical glimpse into a great mind. 12 years in Tech Time is a long long time.

If you are planning on being out of the house for that road trip and leaving your back porch door open, again very accidentally, I think I could do it for the benefit of the human kind.

PS. I need at least a 3 day advance notice as I am right on the other side of the country and in Canada for that matter. I would prefer to do it in the summer as the driving will be easier, there is no way in hell I am flying.

Ron
April 11, 2010 at 10:27 am

“thinking of course that Jobs would follow-through as he had promised but then he didn’t.”

When one side reneges on an agreement, the agreement is usually voided.

Thus, you can publish the tape. Anyway, you should convert it to digital for safe-keeping.

Luftkopf
April 9, 2010 at 1:33 am

Open markup languages won’t catch in the mainstream, because computers are expected to be get easier to use over time, not harder.

@spirit of wonder: Microsoft’s lower P/E is because traders see less growth potential for MS than for Apple.

More interesting will be the Google – Apple battle. It will likely take another dozen years to play out.

Eric
April 9, 2010 at 4:37 am

It really depends on how you measure success. While I don’t generally “get” Apple products, I always respect the design ideas presented, knowing that several years from now every product will have some of these elements.

I think for Jobs, knowing that he changes the world’s view of computers and what they can do is more important than anything else he does. I remember reading interviews with him during his time with NeXT, and he seemed exactly the same as he is now, except that no one was listening at the time.

I’m still bitter about the Intel victory 30 years ago that put that awful x86 architecture into PCs, instead of the superior Motorola 68K.

The x86 is a god-awful CPU architecture; the 68K is much cleaner and easier to program. However, Intel won because they could supply right away.

Even today we are saddled with the burden of that fateful choice.

Bob, I think this would make an interesting story for a lot of people who don’t know the history of why, to this day, the x86 pig is in billions of PCs… and it’s not due to technical superiority…

Ray
April 9, 2010 at 1:01 pm

So you find writing C that will be compiled into 68K instructions to be easier than writing C that will be compiled into x86 instructions? Fascinating.

Bruce
April 11, 2010 at 5:50 am

Yes it is easier to write C code for the 68000 vs the 8086, and for exactly one reason: the linear addressing space. Until the 386, no single chunk of data could be larger than 65,536 bytes. Or at least not without doing tricks, which Intel made impossible in the 286’s protected mode. To even use the extra memory beyond the original 640K (plus a few other chunks in the first megabyte) on the 286 required that the CPU be reset (via external hardware) to return to your program.

Intel didn’t even get virtual machine support working properly until post-2000, while Motorola got it right on their second try, with the 68010 back in the mid-’80s.

Jon H
April 9, 2010 at 1:35 pm

“However, Intel won because they could supply right away.”

And because Motorola couldn’t improve the 68K enough.

Jobs stayed with the 68k line at NeXT, using the 68030 and 68040. But that architecture was a dead end, and Motorola apparently wasn’t interested enough to continue it, moving onto its RISC processors like the 88K line and the PowerPC. (They did a 68060, but that wasn’t widely used.)

NeXT prototyped a machine with an 88K that never shipped because they stopped making hardware. Apple, of course, abandoned the 68K for the PowerPC.

But then Motorola and IBM couldn’t/wouldn’t improve the PowerPC line fast enough and/or couldn’t ship in sufficient quantities. Thus the switch to Intel.

A nice CPU architecture only gets you so far, especially if you’re competing.

jmmx
April 11, 2010 at 9:22 am

While on this topic…

I have long said that Apple gets little credit for pulling off one of the most difficult things in software engineering: Porting your OS. AND they did it not once but three times with very very few hitches. 68k -> PowerPC, OS 9 -> OSX, and PPC -> Intel.

Every time they did it, an overwhelming majority of previous software continued to work on the new system. Of course none of them were flawless, but overall they were absolutely extraordinary feats of engineering.

It’s a myth that the 68k is a vastly superior architecture to x86. Less crufty, maybe, but still very hard to implement in a high performance design. Why do you think Moto went for the PPC? (Still crufty as Risk designs go but a lot easier to work with than 68k, if you are trying to implement an aggressive pipeline.) That said, Intel has done an incredible job getting x86 where it is now. It’s a case study in how not to design an instruction set for scalability in almost every sense.

Pip
April 12, 2010 at 1:34 am

It’s not so much that 68K was brilliant, more that x86 was bad. Intel tried to escape from it, but failed: iAPX432, i960, XScale, Itanium. Every time they’ve been thrown back to x86; they are the x86 company. The price of monopoly is never fixing your design faults?

Mojo
April 9, 2010 at 5:42 am

How long will it be before Google are giving away free phones and free network access in order to sell ads? Apple does not have that option.

While the x86 may be a horrible CPU architecture, probably 99% of the programming occurs at a high enough level that it doesn’t matter to the programmer. And to 99.9999% of the users it doesn’t matter.

Now, would the 68K be faster or cheaper today than the x86 if it would have “won”? In the x86 world, we have AMD spurring Intel on and driving down price. And without AMD there would be no 64 bit Intel x86 cpus. Would there have been a challenger as strong as AMD to spur on Motorola if 68K had won? One could only hope. Would a 68K with 30 years of development and billions thrown at it be as fast as todays x86? I would assume that a modern 68K would be somewhat similar to the modern x86 – fairly RISCy under the hood. So I would guess that the performance of a modern 68K would be at best similar to AMD-Intel, assuming that there was a competitor pushing Motorola. So, since I have no reason to believe that a 68K world would be faster or cheaper than a x86 world, I’m glad that x86 won.

Who cares about M68k vs. Intel anyway? The big market is in mobile and embedded, and while both are players, they are not that competitive. The big sellers were ARM and MIPS when I last checked. How many ARM CPUs does Apple ship vs. Intel? What will the relative numbers be in a year?

Mike Saint Louis
April 9, 2010 at 9:33 am

That’s a shame that the interview won’t see the light of day. I recall part of the Steve Jobs interview from “Triumph of the Nerds” where he said the MS products have no soul. 14 years later I finally understood what he meant.

Andy
April 10, 2010 at 8:01 am

To be exact, he said they have no “taste.” Here’s the quote:

The only problem with Microsoft is they just have no taste, they have absolutely no taste, and what that means is – I don’t mean that in a small way I mean that in a big way. In the sense that they they don’t think of original ideas and they don’t bring much culture into their product … I guess I am saddened, not by Microsoft’s success – I have no problem with their success, they’ve earned their success for the most part. I have a problem with the fact that they just make really third rate products.

Mike Saint Louis
April 10, 2010 at 11:39 am

Ah yes. Thanks for expounding on that.

Bill Kunz
April 9, 2010 at 10:09 am

I would like to hear that interview in its entirety. You could put it on iTunes as a podcast. What a great idea.

Steve M
April 9, 2010 at 10:41 am

“Apple shares, on the other hand, have gone from $7.25 to almost $240″

Apple split their stock a few years ago too, so it’s more like it’s up to almost $480 per share relative to the late 90s value, if I understand how that works correctly.

Stefaan H.
April 9, 2010 at 10:49 am

Dear Bob
Apple stock was 3.32 in december 97 and 240 now, with a 2:1 split twice, so the comparison is 3.32 versus 960, ( x289 ) unless I can’t interprete the figures.

Steve M
April 9, 2010 at 10:57 am

I forgot that they split twice….I really wish I had bought my shares earlier

Jon H
April 9, 2010 at 1:26 pm

I think the $3.32 price for Apple is split-adjusted already.

I don’t recall that Apple’s stock ever had a price that low on the market in real time.

PIF
April 10, 2010 at 6:13 am

or to put it another way, 10 shares for $1000 in 2000, then after 2 splits is currently 40 shares $9600 today.

I don’t recall that Apple’s stock ever had a price that low on the market in real time.<<

Actually, in 1996 Apple was $3 a share. I remember it quite distinctly because I told my husband to buy it and he refused saying, "They're going to wind up out of business."

As we all know, a woman scorned has a long memory.

KenC
April 11, 2010 at 6:36 am

Apple was trading about $30 in June of 1998. They had two 2:1 splits since then, in 2000 and 2005. So, the relevant comparison is $30, then, and $240 now, with 4 shares now, for each one of yours then.

Drew T.
April 9, 2010 at 10:52 am

Microsoft’s stock has suffered more than “a tiny drop from 12 years ago”. Adjusted for inflation, $250m in 1998 to $240m in 2010 is more than a 27% drop.

bjk
April 10, 2010 at 4:01 am

Don’t forget MSFT’s $3/share dividend back a few years ago.

bjk
April 10, 2010 at 4:05 am

And if MSFT wasn’t blowing its cash flow on X-box and Zune and Bing and just focused on Windows and the corporate market, MSFT would be at $50 today. In fact, if MSFT declared that it was going to spinoff all of the money-losing businesses and establish a $1 dividend, the stock would be at $50 tomorrow.

“He knows he can’t win.”
In most contrived sports events, the rules require a winner and a loser. But in life there is no such contraint. There are many definitions and levels of success.

Francis (Ottawa)
April 9, 2010 at 1:31 pm

So it the triumph of the closed system over the open system, at least for now. Just like high voltage DC is now the way to go for long distance power transmission. Tesla said AC was better than DC, but now DC is king again . . .

Pip
April 12, 2010 at 1:47 am

Nope

It’s simplistic, and in fact wrong to say Apple is closed. It uses freely licensed content formats, not its own proprietary one like Microsoft. Apple has relentlessly driven web standards via its open source Webkit work, which is used by Google, Nokia, and RIM, unlike Microsft which is famous for embrace, extend, smother and is now working to make Silverlight its new proprietary kingdom on the Web. Apple’s OS is Open source Unix, with proprietary upper layers, unlike Microsoft, which is entirely proprietary.

Apple is simply a better run business, big enough to run around the attempts of MS, Adobe and others to wall off the open web. Thereby, those walls crumble, and the frailty of the business models that need them is exposed.

j.d.hastings
April 9, 2010 at 2:27 pm

The 2 don’t really compete in the same market though. I feel like Google is a bigger threat to Microsoft than Apple.

poscogrubb
April 9, 2010 at 3:05 pm

I was going to say something similar.

It’s always fun to compare apples to oranges. But not always meaningful.

Bob not MS Bog
April 9, 2010 at 2:29 pm

How do you get to be one of the most successful companies in the world today with $40+B in cash reserves and a current market cap near Walmart’s? Attention to detail.

Hey, Bill’s retired and moving on from chasing the wind…. maybe its him that won….

Sunny Guy
April 10, 2010 at 12:47 am

More like Gates got out while the getting was good. I think he foresaw the locomotive called OS X coming down the tracks, and knew that Windows days were numbered. Quit while you’re still ahead, as they say.

Sunny Guy

Phil
April 9, 2010 at 11:42 pm

Actually, Bull has won. He’s made his fortune, created a sustainable successful company and moved on and is actually doing things that matter in the world. Steve on the other hand appears to be entirely self centered and is still chasing the dollar. Sad really. Ones grown up and moved on, the other just doesn’t get it….

Apples doing well at the moment, but 10 years (or maybe 5) time they will be yesterdays news…

Just my 2 cents

Phil

Sunny Guy
April 10, 2010 at 12:53 am

Jobs was always about creating “insanely great” computers. Just because a lot of companies’ ultimate goal is the dollar, doesn’t mean that applies to Steve Jobs.

Maybe Gates has to spend his time giving back his ill-gotten gains. Giving away money says nothing about the character of the person doing the giving.

Microsoft and Gates are basically a two-act show. Windows and Office. Everything else is a form of giving back some of the dough, trying to parlay it into more.

Bull has done more to hold back computer innovation than anyone on the planet. His entire doctrine was to use any means possible to hold on to his company’s dominant position….

Eric
April 11, 2010 at 6:40 am

Considering Steve Jobs’ secretive nature, how do you know he is not putting millions into charities of his choice. His appearance recently with the Governator, promoting organ donation might just be the tip of the iceberg.

Gates waited until he retired from MSFT to do his thing. Maybe Jobs is doing the same thing.

Gates changed the world in one industry. Jobs is doing it in three. Computers, Music and Telephony. (Win Mobile is a failure.) Steve wins, as if winning counted.

Sunny Guy
April 10, 2010 at 12:58 am

I still have a copy of a great quote from the Cringely Pulpit, Feb. 2, 2006 …

“Bill once told me there was no way that Steve could win, so he wondered why Jobs was still in the game. Now Bill knows why.”

Francis (Ottawa) says: “So it the triumph of the closed system over the open system, at least for now.”

No, that would be the triumph of Apple or Microsoft over Linux and Co. Microsoft isn’t open. Period. Never was.

stefn
April 10, 2010 at 9:48 am

Bill certainly won the enterprise sector; it was never a contest really. Then Steve won the consumer sector. But who did he beat? Microsoft has never been a contender. Sony, not Microsoft, was the king of consumer.

The lingering question is, once Steve has built his electronics/entertainment empire, akin to Sony, will he sweep through the enterprise sector? Probably not. It’s a rat hole, infested by blind, albino rodents who run IT.

J. Vermeer
April 10, 2010 at 10:56 am

Prediction:

– Microsoft will have an eventual but precipitous decline.
– This will be augmented by Ballmer fighting Ozzie to the very end of the intact Microsoft Corp.
– Apple will:
+ buy Microsoft
+ for cash
+ break it up
+ sell off anything/everything Windows to some Chinese co. that makes cheaper-than-dirtcheap-cheap PC clones
+ keep: the profitable biz’s (xBox, keybds/mice), any tech that will help the war against Google (Bing), any/all M$ patents
+ keep the .Net technology, lock it up in a vault, and let it rot a slow, grisly death
+ sell the Redmond, WA campus to the Moonies & local Northwest Indian tribes

It’s just a shame that this will take around 5 years to complete instead of 5 weeks…

TomasF
April 10, 2010 at 4:39 pm

I don’t know about that “win”. Bob makes it sound so convincing. Of course, Apple is yet an insignificant player in consumer electronics, compared to the big players like market leader Samsung (which sells *everything*… somewhere).

And in the PC market they’re still at what? 5% was the last figure I saw. I guess the “double digits” Bob talk about are for the US and translate to about a % increase in global market share up from 4% over the last decade. I’m not impressed.

Not being in the US makes me rather look at the global figures than the US ones. Microsoft is a global success (demonstrated by its attention from regulators from EU to Korea). Apple is largely an American success.

Apple does earn good money though. Looking at iProduct sales and their prices makes that unsurprising.

Avro
April 12, 2010 at 1:21 am

I don’t live in the US either and about 33% of the people I work with in the UK are MacUsers. I talked to the head of Computer Science at one of the top UK universities and over half of the undergraduates are using Mac Laptops. A similar situation exists at the better universities here.

Remember about 80% of Windows sales go to Enterprise. They are very vulnerable on the consumer front. Mac global stats are skewed because they are popular in places like the US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western Europe.

In the rest of the world, not so much, but as I don’t live there I don’t particularly care.

swschrad
April 10, 2010 at 5:09 pm

Cringe, I don’t believe you’re accounting for all the stock splits.

GK
April 10, 2010 at 6:35 pm

This is very interesting, but why not publish the story? This sure would be an interesting read, even if all in hindslight! Why was it never published?

Mark
April 10, 2010 at 8:00 pm

I just started a new job and have been exposed to Apple hardware on a large scale for the first time.

In many ways, they are much more evil than Microsoft. Especially with these Xserves. And with my iPhone I can’t just use it as as a USB storage device to load music like every other device on the planet.

As an open source advocate, it pains me to say that Apple is perhaps a bigger threat.

Dave
April 10, 2010 at 9:29 pm

Yah, those XServes, with their unlimited client licenses, unlike microsoft server software which charges on a per-client basis, so much more evil. A good example of hardware with the OS included on it is better than paying for an OS on cheap hardware.
Also keep in mind that at least the foundation of OS X is open source, while M$’s? Please.

Microsoft had a very good launch of Windows 7, probably their most successful product launch ever, $19 billion at the end of the December quarter alone. Windows 7 may be their last hurrah, or it could do the inconceivable and actually gain a footing in mobile devices or revolutionize the gaming industry. The company does seem energized and jazzed again, and I say that with clenched teeth. What remains to be seen is whether operating systems and software will matter in five years or whether people will be using always on browsers and internet based applications.With Apple squaring off against Google and Adobe in this arena, Microsoft, with its renewed energy and vigor from within, could very well quietly sneak in and pull off a respectable amount of revenue with onlive services, apps and games, probably the hardware key would be Xbox as center of home entertainment and services, and a radical re-imagining of the Zune as a mobile device like the iTouch or iPhone using their Surface technology (they could rebrand it Xune, alluding to its tie-in to Xbox Live services), and a mobile tablet (Xurface, perhaps?).
This not to say Microsoft will re-emerge as the top dog, but with competition in this arena generated from Google and Apple, it will mean consumers will be the winners in the end with a choice of formats, apps, devices, etcetera. The one thing that will not happen is probably the nerd dream of a Linux desktop overtaking Windows, as Microsoft will replace Windows and Internet Explorer (Opera can be bought) with a new OS and browser. Linux will be around as a stable robust invisible OS in many consumer devices, but the next step is going to be the always on robust browser with online apps (i.e. Chrome OS) vs the iPhone OS model of the controlled experience, vs whatever Microsoft’s approach will be.

KenC
April 11, 2010 at 6:43 am

Uhm, of that $19B that MSFT sold in the last quarter, $2B was a one-time benefit from W7 license sales that had accumulated from previous quarters, so the true sales for comparison purposes were only $17B.

Alex
April 11, 2010 at 5:53 am

There is just one mistake in the blog that I don’t see you mention. I know of two times in recent memory that Microsoft stock has been split, so the value of Microsoft is still alot more than 240 billion dollars.

KenC
April 11, 2010 at 6:52 am

No, Bob’s numbers are already split-adjusted.

The only thing he doesn’t mention is that an investor’s return is a combination of two things, capital appreciation, which he points out, and dividend income, which he doesn’t. Unlike Apple which doesn’t pay dividends, MSFT has. So, the above comparison flatters Apple, when you don’t add back MSFT’s dividend payouts.

jmmx
April 11, 2010 at 9:54 am

On “Winning”

I think the really interesting thing here is that I don’t know if Jobs ever set out “to win.” I am not sure if that is his motivation. I think he, and this is mirrored at the company he built, is someone who revels in creating – as they say – “insanely great” computer devices.

If it turns out that Apple should “Win,” then it will be because they are insanely obsessed with every detail of their products. (Not that I don’t have my personal gripes, mind you.) If anything wins, I think that it is this philosophy of design. That design matters. That it matters in every detail. That the user experience matters most of all.

My friend K is a software engineer of the highest caliber (Unix, technical computing). He is also a musician and craftsman. Finally, after years of resisting, he bought a Power Mac to do video editing. He emailed me after he opened it up to put in some new drives. He was totally astounded by the experience. Not only was the interior so well designed that it was very easy to do so, but it was actually beautiful inside! (In a utilitarian way, of course.)

Sure, Mr. Jobs is competitive. Sure, they like profit and jealously protect their margins. But in the end, I think that he personally would be content if Apple were a reasonably profitable business, with a modest market share, making products of which he was proud.

disposableidentity
April 11, 2010 at 10:02 am

“It’s pretty easy to argue that Jobs did win.”

That’s an interesting idea. I pretty much agree with it except for one small detail: the future.

It discounts what Jobs & Apple will be able to do from here.

Apple is “winning” now, sure. But they’re not even trying yet. Microsoft is running as hard as they can — and can’t keep up.

Apple can afford to give away all of the things that Microsoft depends on for their core revenue (desktop OS, productivity apps, server OS, etc.). They’ve already put downward pressure on these areas.

Look at what Windows 7 costs today. Or how a combination of iPhone and Android completely destroyed any market for a Microsoft mobile OS.

Apple can slowly cut off Microsoft’s oxygen.

John
April 11, 2010 at 6:54 pm

“How long will it be until Apple is giving iWork away to sell hardware — an option Microsoft doesn’t have? Not long. By then a bit more of Redmond’s goose will have been cooked.”

— Hey Bob. We actually had an argument about this three years ago. I said Apple/Jobs would make Iwork free, you said, ‘no way Apple wants to be paid for its software.’ But you see how it makes sense now. There’s almost no more development to do, even with Keynote. What are you going to add to Keynote to make it worth an upgrade? $30 bucks now is pretty close to free. Free I’d say is $20 for the suite—$20 being just a token to make you respect the suite. So we’re almost at free now.

But now that I’ve won that one, what’s ‘Next’? Ok, here goes Bob, I’m writing your article for next year. Next is IPad in the hospital. That’s a bit obvious. But let’s step back for a moment and think why it’s not just obvious, but a certainty and important.

Ok, first, a big key to Apple through the years has been dealing with large files. FinalCut users carried Apple to its resurrection. What do they do? Manipulate and look at large images. What do hospitals need to do? Same thing.

What is the culture of the healthcare users? Well, they are attached to universities and research institutions, where Apple also retained its user base over the years. Why? Because universities couldn’t spend like hell for IT staffs and so their computers have been managed by a graduate student, using Apple.

Why is this coming soon? Well, isn’t it a bit strange that Ipad OS 4.0 is coming in the fall? Why not the same time as the Iphone OS? My belief is that the delay is specifically to address the healthcare sector.

How does the healthcare sector fit with Apple? Well, we can go back as far as the Next computer, which was designed as an academic/research workhorse. Let’s not forget Scott Forestall, from Next and Apple-loyal Stanford is spearheading the Ipad software. So, the connection goes way back. But philosophically, Apple is “at the interesection of technology and Liberal Arts.” The industry that is most at that intersection is healthcare.

So that’s the next step in the grand Jobs saga. Nothing like make you taking Apple seriously as laying in a bed practically dying and seeing your doctor using an Ipad. It’s about gravitas, which is what Jobs is all about.

John
April 11, 2010 at 7:06 pm

Also Bob, an article I’d like to see from you is a good dissection of the Apple vs Adobe conflict. I mean most of these newby tech reporters are like “Adobe is such a nice company.” There’s no recognition that for years Adobe has released its products for Windows before they released them for Apple. During those years, it was almost like they were trying to kill Apple’s core base.

There’s no one who even thinks of Steve Jobs working on his Apple computer in his office, and his Safari browser crashing because of Flash. Do they not hear poor Steve screaming?

Set it straight Bob.

Grefo
April 11, 2010 at 7:41 pm

Remember Michael Dell stating a similar idea as Bill’s at about the same time, I think, saying something like “If I were Steve, I would just close down Apple and return whatever it gets from it back to the shareholders” as the responsible thing to do?

Microsoft has a monopoly. People complain about other companies being a monopoly and the lack of progress that causes, and yet they don’t complain about Microsoft.

Also, Bill Gates’s Foundation is not there to save the world. It is there to help western corporations get a permanent foothold in unsuspecting countries, so that these corporations and investors (Gates included) can reap the benefits. This is not helping the countries at all. Gates is getting good PR from this, but it’s business, and Gates is certainly one of the most business savvy people out there. And the fact is if Gates gave away 99% of his wealth he would still have more than all of us would use in a lifetime. It’s not about helping, its about Gates himself and helping his own kind. Wake up people. And where was he when he was acquiring all that wealth by very questionable business practises.

Apple clearly is far more innovative than Microsoft and introduces revolutionary products that consumers desire. Microsoft’s has not introduced an innovative product or service this century. Zune is exhibit A. Apple innovates and Microsoft copies with inferior products — and this is not limited to just copying Apple.

James R.
April 15, 2010 at 7:45 am

If by revolutionary and innovative, you mean good at taking things other people make and improving on them, then yes they are good. Which is funny because you decry Microsoft for doing it… The iPad is so revolutionary that its basically a large, dumbed down version of an iPhone, which is just an Apple adaptation of many different smart phones. I’m not saying that the iPhone isn’t better than my Blackberry Storm, but there was nothing revolutionary about it. They take good ideas, make them pretty and sell them with an “i” in the beginning of the name. Revolutionary was the GUI developed by Xerox, but Apple and co. took the idea and improved it, nothing wrong with that. Same with iWorks and Microsoft Office, they are almost identical…especially when you run them side by side on an iMac. I don’t support the way they control everything on their platforms but that is their business model and it works for them. In all honesty, i get more service calls for the iMac 27’s that we have (I work in IT) than I do windows PCs. This isn’t because they are not working, cause they work fine, but that the end user’s cant figure out how to get so and so working and have to call in techies to get the program they want. To say they are shit is pretty childish, I’m a Linux/Windows guy, and probably will stay one, but I must disagree with both sides, the ones who say Apple is a terrible and worthless company, and those who trump it up to be the greatest things ever.

Jeff, Silicon Valley, CA
April 16, 2010 at 7:37 am

No engineer is so good they can invent in a vacuum. Everything is on the shoulders of giants. Even venerable companies like HP never jumped into markets until someone else had first “crossed the Chasm on their own dime”; then HP would jump in and “do the technology right”. An awful lot like Apple does. And Apple has the same capital structure and margin model as the old HP under Bill and Dave. Gee, big surprise Apple is so successful.

MacGregor
April 17, 2010 at 4:42 am

Wow, James, that was a less than useful analysis.

Licensing the mouse and windowing gui – improving it, implementing it, marketing it and redefining it – does take innovation. And a good deal more than making Word a bad copy of WordPerfect (without licensing any ideas) and using a business model, not innovation or superior design, to monopolize the market.

If you can’t give Apple credit for innovation then maybe you need to stay in your IT department and program BreakOut in another flavor of Unix.

As for Macs vs. PC’s and IT calls … well, maybe I believe you, but (I know this won’t be received well by many here, but…) I don’t look to IT statistics for answers. A better metrics was when I worked in a science museum and we had a lab that was half Macs, half PC’s and let the general public decide. Other than the fact that whichever ones had Oregon Trail on them, got used most, people gravitated to the Macs by about 2 to 1. When we asked why, they would say they didn’t want to be on their office computer while at a museum! Kids and adults seemed to do fine on either platform, so I’m not sure the problem with your company’s employees. Second, our IT support of both platforms basically meant that the PC’s had to be worked on 5 times more often and over the years the need to replace the PC’s happened at twice the rate as the Macs, meaning PC’s became outdated twice as fast.

Moral of the story: Macs are far easier and longer lived to use and maintain than PC’s when given equal attention and with a general audience … oh and Apple is more innovative than MS.

M.Funkibut
April 12, 2010 at 4:55 am

Jobs didn’t win – he decided to play a different game. Apple is not a computer company not by a long shot. It’s a consumer electronics company and a darn good one.

But to say Apple and Microsoft are in the same business is silly. Which is the better business to be in? Aye there’s the rub….

Just like how Microsoft is still just a software company? What about Xbox, Surface, Bing and Zune? Apple just did a better job of diversifying their market and identifying that the desktop PC environment wasn’t the last battlefield. Apple has always been a hardware and software company, they just moved on beyond the PC arena before all the other big players did.

wiredog
April 12, 2010 at 10:28 am

What about Surface and Zune? I’ve never seen either, or met anyone in person who’s used either.

B
April 12, 2010 at 11:29 am

actually I used Surface at a bar in Las Vegas, disappointing, slow, and as a passing waitress said “honey, no one plays with those things for long”

MacGregor
April 17, 2010 at 4:30 am

… that’s what she said …

; )

AK
April 12, 2010 at 11:43 am

Microsoft lacks invention and it has reached a point from where it will only go down without creativity. MS has taken old American traditional way, old is gold. But people are way smart now for MS and Apple is working smart to cope with people’s demand. Google is struggling to sell their gadgets competing with Apple.

ColdComfort
April 12, 2010 at 12:09 pm

Google struggling to sell gadgets?

I guess you don’t read the news then.

Chris
April 13, 2010 at 11:26 am

I get what you’re saying about the Surface, but the Zune is pretty popular and is, in all honesty, the best deal when it comes to digital music. I’d take the Zune over an iPod any day (and I have no loyalties to either company). However, I’d take an iPhone over a Windows Mobile Phone any day.

Can’t we all just admit that both companies are doing well? Mac is good for people wanting a VERY controlled, extremely user-friendly experience and have money to burn. Windows is good for people on a budget and developers (or people who want a more open OS). I don’t think either of those things are bad or are better than the other.

James R.
April 15, 2010 at 7:46 am

This right here.

James R.
April 15, 2010 at 8:02 am

Although I played D&D on the surface at PAX East, and i came away astounded…if it weren’t $12,000 id buy one.

Jeff, Silicon Valley, CA
April 16, 2010 at 8:05 am

Except that in the bigger picture, Microsoft has problems while Apple doesn’t so much have.

MacGregor
April 17, 2010 at 4:44 am

You lost me at “… Zune is pretty popular …”

cak
April 12, 2010 at 3:47 pm

You are partly right, but you can say the same about Microsoft, they are no longer just a software company. Still, Apple do make the best laptops (taken over the mantle from IBM).

Mateo
April 13, 2010 at 11:49 am

No the real rub is that Microsoft has had touch screen tablets for years now. The only difference between theirs and Macs is that you can plug things into theirs – you know, like projectors, monitors, tvs, USB devices, port replicators… well, you get the idea.

Davey
April 13, 2010 at 3:41 pm

You must not be familiar with the iPad, or perhaps you simply are regurgitating the rhetoric you read off some website. You can plug the iPad into all those devices you mentioned…in fact, Apple sells those cables/dongles themselves. What you meant to say was that the real difference is that people are actually buying the iPad, and not Microsoft’s.

The big difference between Microsoft tablets and the iPad is: people actually want an iPad. It delivers an excellent, usable experience in an attractive package. Something that Microsoft HAS NEVER DONE. Microsoft’s market dominance is pretty much traceable back to its original win: getting DOS adopted as the IBM standard OS back in the mid 1980s. Now that the PC market is diminishing in importance, the market valuation tells the story. Apple (especially under Jobs) is capable of multiple innovations, and has the marketing savvy to sell through to consumers.

Microsoft certainly isn’t in the same position it was years ago. That doesn’t stop it from being the market leader in just-barely-good-enough crap.

That’s just being honest. Even MacOS is faster. It’s not more bug-free or more secure, though. For that you have a custom linux distro, but that’s too hard to set up for some people. Or you can use Ubuntu and just choose to not use all of your Windows software that breaks in wine. (Or you can run a virtual machine like I do at work, same as Mac users.)

We can argue until the cows come home about this but Windows 7 is a just-good-enough effort. Everyone who only uses Windows on a regular basis will think I’m batshit insane. But that’s ’cause they’re just drinking that particular brand of Kool-aid. It’s similar to the stuff the Mac fanboys drink, just different flavour.

So that laid to rest (lol I bet not), we can look at what Apple does.

They make pretty crap. It’s very pretty, and does what it should functionally. It also breaks many rules about security and a default install just chews up the RAM. Even more than Windows does. That’s pretty sad. It runs well until you get many apps going at once.

What does Canonical do? Well they remix Linux for the masses. They make configuration tools and aggregate unstable versions of Debian software to make something appealing in hopes of giving the world an alternative.

It’s pretty good, and for what most of the things people do it’s more than adequate. It should also work out of the box, but because hardware manufacturers are not always on board, your silly piece of hardware could be that one thing that makes the whole experience suck.

So that’s a pretty good summary, I think. I agree with M.Funkibut. Apple makes appliances. They work a very particular way, and if you don’t like it – you can use something else.

Ev0
April 12, 2010 at 5:38 am

Gates won, the fight is over, has been over for a long time. I doubt Gates has much of anything to do with Microsoft anymore in terms of development and programming.

Windows is still the most widely used OS commercially.

And what about the Xbox consoles? I don’t see Apple with their feet in that market. At least Microsoft has the fairly popular Zune to contend with the Ipod.

The only thing Apple has is brand name popularity. Congrats Apple you can rip a lot more money off with your products that do the same thing as many other generic brands at half the price.

RIch
April 12, 2010 at 9:14 am

Zune, popular? Oy…

rfrmac
April 12, 2010 at 10:48 am

I love it when people talk about getting ripped off. Boy, let’s see, Imagitive, copied by all, does what it says it is going to do, works etc. Are they controlling? Yes, and that’s a good thing judging by what is going on. Maybe by the end of the year Apple will be worth more than Microsoft. Why, because people love their products.

Regarding: “To say Apple and Microsoft are in the same business is silly.”

Oh really? How so?

Both sell consumer electronics (x-box, zune, ipod Touch, iPhone), operating systems (OSX, MS7) and sofware that runs under those OS’s (OSX, Windows 7). One of them also sells actual computers. The difference between the two is mostly a matter of “the mix” between these activities.

And as regards the idea of success, well…
Arguably, the best definition of a company’s success is how well it enhances Shareholder Value. Apple’s “mix” has rewarded shareholders handsomely during the twelve year period the author references. Microsoft’s has not.

Bill B.
April 12, 2010 at 5:59 am

EDIT (sloppy, I know):

“…and sofware that runs under those OS’s (OSX, Windows 7).”

should read

“and sofware that runs under those OS’s (Excel, Final Cut Pro).

Michael Bryan
April 12, 2010 at 6:25 am

Wow. Some real sour grapes here in the comments. First, computers are consumer electronics. Second, so market leadership does not consist of increasing market penetration, wildly successful products, and the highest price premiums and profit margins? Face it folks, the computer revolution is moving beyond the desktop and Apple is excellently positioned to take advantage of that shift.

The bloke who points out that Apple is not competing in the game console space has a point, Apple does not have first mover advantages in that market. I wonder how profitable that market is, however. It is my understanding is that MS is still losing money on their XBox division. If there is actually any money to be made in that market, I feel quite sure Apple will figure out how…

Steve
April 12, 2010 at 6:26 am

Apple has also assumed the creepy “Big Brother” demeanor that once characterized Microsoft.

veggiedude
April 12, 2010 at 11:37 am

Apple is big brother? How can that be? They don’t license their OS’s to clone manufacturers to exert pressure tactics and control the market. No, the Dells and Hp’s of the world can do their own thing, Apple doesn’t care about them. If you are a developer on the Apple platform, then you know you have to play by their rules. If you don’t like it, there is MS and Google and Palm and a bunch of others to go to.

Apple made a good business at selling consumer friendly devices and PC’s at a high margin. They created stylish things that are good “i” candy, pun intended. They are no where near the market penetration that Microsoft has either. If Microsoft were to turn to Apple’s model… oh wait… they did and were sued for anti-trust.

Apple has a tight control on every product they put out. Yet Microsoft gets bashed for bundling IE8 with their OS. How about Apple? Can you install their OS w/o a browser? The hardware is all over priced by hundreds of dollars compared to their Windows OS counterparts. They are all Intel now, but command premiums because they look nice.

That is how Apple was able to generate so much money. If Microsoft was allowed to do what Apple is able to do, it would have made Rockerfeller look like a kid in terms of monopoly. Apple wouldn’t exist!

RIch
April 12, 2010 at 9:17 am

To repost…

The best definition of a company’s success is how well it enhances Shareholder Value. Apple’s “mix” has rewarded shareholders handsomely during the twelve year period the author references. Microsoft’s has not.

OiS
April 12, 2010 at 9:38 am

Apple has some expensive products, that for one is true, but think about this for a moment: To get a product 80% finished, you most invest 20% of the total cost, to get the rest of 20% finished, you most invest 80% of the total cost. This is a rule coined down by some really wise computer scientist, as I remember… The idea is that Apple’s products have that finishing touch witch others lack. Look at laptops with roughly the same specs…there made out of plastic. Same goes for other Apple products. So it’s not just about “i”candy, it’s about the quality.

[…] just finished reading this article regarding a Roswellian tape found in the trenches of a home office. It claims to be an hour long […]

Ed
April 12, 2010 at 8:25 am

Gates didn’t lose to Apple but Ballmer might.

I’m amazed the folks who focus on price as the only reason to hate Apple. So how can Ferrari sell a car for 300,000 USD and folks buy them?

That answers the silly rants that I hear from tech gurus.

My time is worth money AND am willing to pay for someone to give me a total computing experience. The cost of cheap hardware means I care less about the upfront purchase and more about cost of ownership and future options with my data.

Apple does a great job of supporting legacy systems and customers. MS has a long history of overcharging and under delivering. Anyone who purchased Vista should have got a free upgradebto Windows 7. Apple dropped the ball on MobileMe when it first shipped. Jobs gave folks free service and an apology letter.

Ed

Steve
April 12, 2010 at 9:01 am

I think there are quite a few things being overlooked here. Firstly, Apple and Microsoft are in some similar areas of business (OSX, Windows 7, software, mp3 players, etc.), but this is focusing solely on home users. Yes, Apple is making great headway in the marketplace, in terms of home users. Some could say they are besting Microsoft. But Apple is NOTHING in corporate America. Microsoft has products that most people are completely unaware of and are basically Microsoft’s pride and joy. The only reason most people know about Windows 7 is due to buying a new PC or commercials, because it’s driven to home users.

Think about enterprise class products, such as Microsoft Exchange, Microsoft Windows Server, HPC, Azure, SCCM, Hyper-V, and cloud computing (just to name a few). Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, uses Apple products in this regard. And in turn, these companies use Microsoft client OS’s such as XP, Vista and 7 (also Microsoft Office products) because they are managed through a Windows Domain and Active Directory. Most users will have literally no idea what I am talking about, but for anybody that works in IT you will understand how true this is. There is LITERALLY NO APPLE PRESENCE in the IT world. This is why Microsoft will continue to win in the end (or until Apple somehow gets a foot in the door).

ColdComfort
April 12, 2010 at 12:29 pm

Well said. Apple makes pretty toys (and does it very well), a market Microsoft has been unable to capture, though not for lack of effort. (If they don’t screw up the Courier, they might have a chance at grabbing some market share, but I’m not holding my breath.)

The corporate world is powered by Microsoft though, and I doubt this will change no matter how many iPods Apple sells.

Bill B.
April 13, 2010 at 7:35 am

One could argue that IT Departments (or at the very least, the employees in those departments) have a vested interest in products that are inherently more expensive to maintain — since more problems means more job security — especially relevant in an economy with a national unemployment rate well over 10%. Would that be cynical? Or realistic?

I would also argue that massive deployment does necessarily equate to superiority. For example, AT&T (in its pre-deregulation state, back in the ’80s) had an ENORMOUS market share — but you would have been hard pressed to find anyone who’d say they were delivering a quality product.

Finally, there’s the “make money THIS quarter, and screw the future” mentality reigns at most corporations. Because of this, t’s hard to justify even a slight premium, paid now, for savings down-the-road.And yet, survey after survey reveals that, long-term, Apple systems have a lower Total Cost of Ownership — when you include support costs, resale value at upgrade time, training costs, and so forth.

James R.
April 15, 2010 at 7:52 am

We have a few of the apple enterprise class stuff… There really pretty but we don’t even use them which is kinda sad…

Alec
April 12, 2010 at 9:07 am

you know whats hysterical. Microsoft wanted to make computers, but the government wouldn’t let them because they would be considered a monopoly. Do you realize just how much more powerful they’d be if they got to build and manufacture parts for their software laptop/desktop-wise.

Apple has in no way won. Granted, they are a great company, but their stubbornness will always keep them down.

enzo ferrari
April 12, 2010 at 9:52 am

Steve, who comments a couple of posts up, is 100% correct. While Apple was making “i this” and “i that” Microsoft has been battling it out in the Enterprise with IBM, Oracle, SAP and others. Taking the perceived approach that “good enough crap” that’s “easy enough to administrate” will win in most categories seems to have worked.

Apple is a great design and marketing team that outsources the manufacture and production of computers and other electronics to China. They control the process from end to end, allowing little to no variation from their perception of the computing platform and experience. Apple does this, because they know about implosion, and many times when things get tough, Brand loyalty is the only thing left. Customer loyalty as an outgrowth of a positive customer experience in the consumer electronics and computing areas is the single most expensive proposition in the consumer facing market. They’ve done a great job with that.

The consumer market is fickle, and Apple is doing an admirable job of keeping it together, but for how long will this last?

Finally, over the course of time since Bill Gates’s statement, Apple has clearly operated as a more successful public company. The charts and graphs don’t lie. Microsoft will never be gone, they will continue to penetrate into business both big and small, and Apple will likely morph into a more Sony-like entity.

Two different kinds of company, some intersecting businesses.

John M
April 12, 2010 at 10:06 am

Apple has indeed won and I’ll tell you why. Your point is well taken but seeing from the comments a lot of people see the comparison as apples to oranges (no pun intended). For me and most people, we don’t care if it’s electronics, digital downloads or IT. At the end of the day most consumers want a quality product. Ideally they want a cheap product but in the long term the quality product wins out. Why? Because of branding. Everything from the types of TVs that we buy to the types of cars we crave… branding! Obviously cheap isn’t the bottom line otherwise the Yugo would selling like hotcakes. In 20+ years Microsoft quality has gone downhill and the public knows this. They are the GM of IT and electronics. Apple has always had a good product. Overpriced they may be but a good product. Word of mouth has spread.

Those who argue IT legacy support…. the days of that being bread and butter are gone.

Those who argue at Apple computers just look good…. it’s UNIX under the hood and has proper hardware support. The performance on any Mac is great. Why Microsoft never went the UNIX route is beyond me. Idiots! I’m still waiting for Microsoft to allow me to do a “kill -9″.

Most importantly, recent engineering and compsci grads know Microsoft makes crap. At my university Microsoft couldn’t give the software away. Even the devtools were used as coasters!

Shawn K
April 12, 2010 at 10:36 am

Bill Gates will not let his kids use Ipod; he insists on them using Zune. Is this considered child abuse ?

Karen
April 12, 2010 at 10:40 am

Apple certainly won, hands down! It’s a more user-friendly driven, highly secure system on which all the software is designed, and a mac-user of any Apple product can feel secure, that the product won’t be riddled with viruses and worms and it won’t be from a company that is going away anytime soon.

One more thing….I had to purchase a Dell laptop when I was still employed by the NYC Dept. of Ed., and I was required to use windows-based pc’s and not a Mac to teach desktop publishing and the Office programs, and other design software programs to NYC high school students. I was persuaded to get Vista and that was a poor simulation of the Mac OSX system. It works for appearance on the opening screen, nothing else is similar in functioning as smoothly as a Mac. I tried to get Dell and then other Geek Squad type individuals to take out the Vista and replace it with Windows XP and now I’d rather have Windows 7 if that’s an improvement. NO ONE WOULD DO IT, telling me it would mess up everything. Nothing would work properly, and that I should just leave it as is. Vista has been a major mistake. I can’t use that laptop because I use my Macbook and imac by choice and that laptop is not even giftable to anyone who asks me for use of a laptop. I offered to give it to my partner who tried it, hated it and refused it, and I tried to sell it and no one wants that system. It’s a large, powerful laptop with no buyers, no takers, and is just a dead weight that I spent a lot of money purchasing and purchasing software for it and it is useless. That is what I find of Microsoft products…there is a disconnect with the needs of the consumer. They have poor vision, and lack the creativity of Apple.

Bill C.
April 12, 2010 at 11:04 am

Microsofts Vista was the last straw for me. Since Mr. Gates firm has not seen fit to give away windows 7 free to those of us who got dooped with Vista I am now a user of Apple products and I have no regrets to date.

Bill C.
April 12, 2010 at 10:59 am

Well , not since the Ford vs.Chevy has there been such a rivalry that draws out the best and worst in people. Both of these companies seem to operate in a mannor that says take it or leave it , we don’t care what you think. For now , Apple has the better image.The iphone was a big deal and even now , no one can match it.(Steve , get rid of AT&T ,Please!) Jobs , seems like a far more involved hands on type than Bill Gates ever was. Gates was always about as excitng to listen to as Geo. Bush. Who’s better? , Smarter? Let the games begin…..I’d rather have lunch with Jobs than Gates, that much I’m sure of.

As for the i-Pad… my suggestion is wait for Version 2 or probably 3 to see what the apple orchard will produce much to all’s delight.

MC
April 12, 2010 at 11:29 am

Hey Bob,

Great little post. Reminds me of that documentary you did back in the day “Triumph of the Nerds”. I remember the end where you talk about the struggling Apple in a pessimistic tone, and the interview with the then ousted Steve Jobs embittered by the state of affairs and condemning Microsoft for their lack of creativity and artistry.

I like seeing Apple do well, and Steve Jobs has always been more of a visionary in my eyes than Bill Gates.

PeterLehner
April 12, 2010 at 12:14 pm

Can we hear the interview, please?

Lester
April 12, 2010 at 12:25 pm

Apple in not JUST a consumer electronics company. It is also a media company. An enterprise software / hardware company. They have blown Avid out of the water. Many businesses are now using Mac, especially small businesses who can’t afford a full time IT person, who like the plug and play nature, and want software that does what they want not what Microsoft wants. Further, what’s wrong with being a consumer electronic company, one that determines, now, how people interact with media. I bought 10K worth of Apple in 94, when everyone said it was going down. Not exactly a shabby investment.

In the early days Bill had a good business sense, but Steve had a better “vision.” While Steve’s eye for technology and his vision was better, he was not a good CEO. He and Apple had a falling out.

In the years that followed Steve has now become a much better CEO. While his management style may not be the best, he can get results.

Bill’s approach to business has usually been one of beating others out of his market space. He sees a market, steps in, and tries to bully others out. Steve’s approach is a lot more focused on vision, design, and quality. Steve has created whole vertical lines of business. iTunes is a great example.

Bill’s management style got results fast, but it is harder to sustain growth. It took Steve years to build momentum. It will be easier for him to continue to grow the business.

Bob has written many, many articles on Bill, Microsoft, Steve, and Apple.

Microsoft still has 90% of the PC market, but from a business/financial point of view Apple is now Microsoft’s equal.

As Bob mentioned earlier, Microsoft makes good money from Windows. However the big bucks come from Office. That is their cash cow. If it is under threat, so is Microsoft’s profitability. Microsoft can still make lots of good money. However they won’t be making great money anymore. Their stock will become uninteresting to Wall Street.

If you think about it, that is what happened to Yahoo. It wasn’t that they were falling apart. They were no longer interesting to the investment community.

Random_Reader_1980
April 12, 2010 at 1:12 pm

“Microsoft still has 90% of the PC market, but from a business/financial point of view Apple is now Microsoft’s equal.”

LOL

Random_Reader_1980
April 12, 2010 at 1:18 pm

MS owns all the infratructure! Their competitors are SAP, Oracle, IBM, etc. What office computers DON’T run Windows? They make $1M every time a company re-ups for enterprise licensing and support while Job’s makes a fraction of that for each cute iPad or MacBook he sells. Not to mention the Millie’s MS makes on corporate servers. MS knows where the real money is… it’s in coporate sales and support. They’re playing 2 different games.

MS has far more shares outstanding too.

Apple has a great gig now, but soon everything will be in the Cloud. Guess who owns in the cloud…. GOOGLE – and they hate Apple!

A different Russ
April 12, 2010 at 1:20 pm

I’m interested in the story about WHY we’ll never hear that interview, I’m guessing there’s lawyers involved. Care to share, Bob?

Gill Bates took one look at the Tiger Beta’s in 2005 and announced his retirement. Typical Scorpio, everything’s a completion that the ego can’t let go of. He threw in the towel at 50? With all of the lip service he gave to his long hours and overblown work ethic, no way a man like that retires at 50 to work for his wifes nonprofit. He was pwnd and he knew it. He couldn’t steal his way out of real innovation. I look at windows 7, it’s just a copy of Panther. Look at the side menu’s, gadgets… QQ me a river.

Unix > Windows

Always has been always will be.

mlaiuppa
April 12, 2010 at 4:56 pm

Not to mention Vista.

And that Microsoft iPod wannabe thingie.

Hutch
April 12, 2010 at 7:01 pm

And when you can get all those items free from Google, who will be alive in ten years? Google.

Pugs
April 12, 2010 at 8:24 pm

It doesn’t matter which one was right, which one won or even which one will continue to lead. What matters is that they keep this technological advantage here in America, keep hiring American workers and continue the innovation needed to stay ahead of the rest of the world. I’d love to see the same comparison in a few years that includes google also.

Carl
April 12, 2010 at 8:38 pm

Gates (chief software architect) was fired for botching Vista although no one admits it. I think it’s fair to say Gates lost.

This whole discussion could have just stopped at the second comment. Bill G’s comment turned out correct from his perspective — MacOS share is almost unmeasurable compared to Windows. And Jobs deserves credit for re-directing Apple into markets which had much less competition. And to Bob’s original assertion? Yes you could consider getting financials even starting with a crappy hand a win — of sorts.

However it is the mobile OS arena where the hot war is being fought. Apple entered the handheld computer market with iPhone and iTouch where MS had once been pretty dominant, redefined the segment, and took market share decisively. That is the space to watch. But my money is on the latest entrant to the contest, Google.

James R.
April 15, 2010 at 7:59 am

I’m still waiting on this one. I have yet to read up on any of the new WinMo7 stuff, but they are now controlling the hardware its running on, so that’s something to watch. I must say though, when using a Droid and an iPhone, next to my Storm…the Droid is much better…

It’s also pretty obvious that Steve Jobs’ hubris will sink Apple once again. It was bad enough that the Apple store was the single source of apps. It was bad enough that Apple has fought jail breaking every step of the way.

Now, we get a brain damaged iPad… can’t really run without an iTunes link to another computer. No 3G. No flash.

Now, we get iPhone OS 4.0 with incredibly onerous developer restrictions. Basically, no developer can use a platform that would allow development for simultaneous devices, like Android.

Apple’s penchant for proprietary left then in the dust against the PC, and with muscle like Google, Jobs has seriously overreached again. I can’t wait until a lawsuit is filed against Apple for restraint of trade… I’d like to be part of it.

I just read several of the comments here. Who knew Microsoft had fanbois?

Jin
April 13, 2010 at 12:51 pm

FUCK APPLE

Apple only Copy every one ..and try to become best but they are shit …

Glenn
April 13, 2010 at 8:33 pm

You really are a dickhead. If you haven’t got anything constructive to say just rack off you immature git.

James R.
April 15, 2010 at 7:55 am

Well said… and I suppose I place myself on Microsoft’s side of the court

robert
April 13, 2010 at 10:15 pm

I thought Apple mad a mistake not licensing its operating system and Microsoft has been winning since then. but both are passe anyway..Google rules now.

Graeme
April 14, 2010 at 4:05 pm

Windows still runs business machines and networks.

snobrd2
April 14, 2010 at 9:42 pm

Windows still runs business machines and networks.
and botnets!

Robert
April 14, 2010 at 5:38 pm

I think Apple’s products are not expensive when you factor in how long you hang onto them and how little it takes to keep them viable and running. My Apple G4 is going on 7 years old and runs great. I will probably think about retiring it soon but will replace it with another Apple product. On the other hand, I bought an Acer windows laptop 16 months ago for the wife and kids to use and everyone hates it. It will probably get thrown out the window or stomped on soon. Everyone wants to use my Apple.

James R.
April 15, 2010 at 7:56 am

I see what you did there…except that you bought something from Acer…which makes this comparison null and void…never buy from Acer.

Robert
April 15, 2010 at 3:17 pm

It was a desperation move. Close family friend is a VP of sales at said company and gave me a “deal” for the laptop. It was almost as if it fell off off the back of a truck it was so good. Looking back, it was still too much and should have saved the purchase price as a down payment on an Apple. How did I know Acer was the Yugo of the computing world?

Laughing all the way to the bank
April 14, 2010 at 8:08 pm

Bought my Apple stock at $8 per share when the “pundits” said Apple was finished, washed up and would be gone in a couple of years.

I still have a 1991 Fortune Magazine with Jobs and Gates pictured on it together. The itnerview was the first time the 2 men had met face-to-face. Even then they were competitors, although admired each others spirit. Amazing how far Apple has come, and I am guilty many times over of keeping them in business.

MattWisdom
April 15, 2010 at 3:15 pm

I think people are missing the point. Apple will have higher revenue than MS either this year or next, if the trends of the last several years continue. Think about that — separate from who you like. Apple has grown something like 10,000% in shareprice while MS has decreased.

MS has dominance in the enterprise. I have watched this intensely since the early 90’s, and the refrain from MS has always been that they are competing with themselves. The challenge for them is whether customers will upgrade, but *not* over share.

Now Apple has small share, but massive profits. Apple could easily grow it’s share double. Microsoft can’t because they have more than 50% (or 90%) of the market.

Microsoft must utterly reinvent themselves. Azure is a good step, and so are many of their cloud services. Apple just needs to be themselves and keep doing what they are doing. Microsoft must cannibalize their cash cows to innovate, but Apple doesn’t have this problem. They cannibalized the ipod with the iphone and made even more money.

I offer no value judgments. MS does some things incredibly well, so does Apple. But the growth prospects for Apple are sky high, and Microsoft isn’t in the same ballpark. Look at their financials in the last couple years. Microsoft declined last year and Apple skyrocketed.

It is maybe even a likelihood that Apple will be the bigger company, and possibly by a large, large margin. I never would have believed that when we were considering buying crappy Radius Apple clones and hating whatever the previous Mac OS was. It wouldn’t even reliably list 1000 files in a folder.

Knute
April 17, 2010 at 11:51 am

“He knows he can’t win.”

Seems like the old Gates defined winning as being the biggest, the richest, the most powerful. Of course this was in the middle of the Federal antitrust trial that MS lost and, thanks to a Bush victory, was able to recover from with a wrist slap, only to see Europe waiting in the wings to wreak more havoc on Redmond.

But MS has been sucking off the twin teats of Windows and Office for so long now, it’s amazing that they’ve been able to guard these two fronts from competitors. Apple, on the other hand has diversified, slowly filling out its stable of pro and consumer apps, gadgets, stores (remember the original Dell store was made possible by Steve Jobs then at NeXT).

For decades MS hung Mac Office over Apple’s head, threatening to yank it, along with the Mac’s viability. Now, Apple could simply license MacOS on the Intel platform – Dell, HP and others could pressure MS to drop its prices on Windows. Apple could leverage its rabid Keynote following and put out a real competitor to Office and, again, MS would have to find ways to drop the price.

Apple really is in the catbird’s seat now. Unlike 1998, Jobs is swinging some major pipe and can pretty much call his own shots. He could make a full frontal attack on Redmond without jeopardizing any of his product lines. Gates has always been a great strategist, and a win-at-any-cost kind of guy. But I believe marriage, children, age, and quitting while he was ahead, has allowed to him to focus on the softer side of Bill, while Ballmer and the fractured executive egos at Microsoft pull the company in a myriad of reactionary directions.

There was that line from Triumph of the Nerds, where a gobsmacked Jobs protests to Gates – “We’re better. We’ll always be better.” And Gates said, “It doesn’t matter.”

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Ron
April 22, 2010 at 4:11 am

I’ll start the bidding for the tape at $42.

Jimbo in LImbo
April 22, 2010 at 12:45 pm

“Look at the downward price erosion of Microsoft Office caused by a combination of Open Office and iWork…”

And Google Docs.

Nils
April 28, 2010 at 5:38 am

Hi!

Microsoft will rebound into the consumer market with the new Windows Phone 7 and hopefully introduce the Microsoft Courier, Who wants the Ipad anyway. It’s only usable for surfing. I bet not many people except a portion of Mac / Iphone users will buy this. There will soon be better Windows 7 and Android slates around. Apple is experiencing its 15 minutes right now, but the competition is not only catchuing up, but surpassing Apple on technology.

Stephen
May 1, 2010 at 9:11 pm

Nils- it isn’t exactly ‘technology’ that makes the iPad so desirable. There are a lot of people who need what the iPad and other more accessible platforms offer over the the fastest game machine out there. It’s marketing to everyone- not just you.

Avro
May 2, 2010 at 4:08 am

HP Slate and MS Courier are cancelled. Faced with a bout with Apple, HP and Microsoft wet themselves and then ran screaming to the door. No contest.

If a company’s market cap is the same as it was 12 years ago then it has lost a vast amount of value because it hasn’t kept up with inflation. Microsoft’s top market cap was not $250 billion but $500 billion… today it is $221 billion.

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