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Satantango

As noted in GD, this is bad news for Little Labour. You would expect support for a government half-way through its third term to wane and Colmar Brunton has National up, this poll seems to ring truer. Voters will, are, tiring of National, just as one tires of eating trifle after a while (a long while in my case). But Little Labour should be the beneficiary of this and both polls say they are not. Other parties are, whether left or right. Those leaving National seem to be going anywhere but Little Labour. National’s task is to form an coalition with either NZ First or, much less likely, the Greens. John Key is too pragmatic not to do a deal with one or either. Little Labour’s only option is to cobble together the Coalition of the Ungovernable. Good luck with that.

Souvlaki

Boris Piscina

I do believe that the Labour Party we have all known, in its present incarnation, has had its day. I do not believe it will ever be the Government again. It will need to fractionate, die, and be reborn; and those things will happen, and a new Party will emerge. The same process is likely to envelop the Greens, possibly during the same timeframe, but more likely shortly thereafter.

Our own near-majority supremacy will not last. It is foolish to believe that it could.

NZF will be our next partner, but it is a reality that their options are as limited as ours. Without a sufficiently strong Labour Party as an alternative, the Winston Party will have but two choices; either join with us, in a coalition or a C&S arrangement, or sit on the sidelines where they are at present, voting bill by bill and issue by issue.

Winston really doesn’t want the latter, but he will do it if the terms of any agreement aren’t sufficiently to his liking. He won’t ever send the country back to the polls early, because he knows that small Parties are punished by voters when that happens. But he could stymie our policy programme and make it look like our fault. I do believe he’s clever enough for that, having learned from being burnt by Shipley.

If we are clever, we will ride his demands, back to the ownership of our traditional conservative base, which he is currently seducing at a rate of knots.

PhilP

RalphT

While having National depending on Winnie will be a disaster for the country, the alternative is having him prop up Labour and the Greens (in his mind they will be supporting him). For the country that will be an absolute fucking disaster. I know which one I would prefer.

Captain Mainwaring

This poll traditionally overstates NZF, but the worst thing that can happen is that the next Government will be National propped up by Winston, until the latter meets his maker. Then what?
NZF will disappear, and the terminally bewildered will spread themselves all over the place, leaving National in a dominant position.
Labour is permanently rooted.

Nostalgia-NZ

One poll does not a summer make. I thought Labour would have actually been further down the gurgler. Of more interest was JK signalling a possible property tax for overseas buyers to take that wind out of the next election, it’s a carefully planted valve to release pressure off an issue that Labour and NZF will continue to use. JK will be predicting the possibility of a Trump like campaign to rouse feeling against Government generally, so gives himself a diplomatic, middle of the road option of its introduction, in time.

It has been obvious since the last election where the Conservative took 4.5%, that next election NZF will hold this Government to account . RMA , Race based privilege, tax, change flag for fun , Constitution embedding racism, Capital tax.
And good show too, Nat has no show in Northland. Nat has had every opportunity to collapse institutional racism and the RMA and has done nothing except increase tax, and flounder over City housing issues..

Sir Cullen's Sidekick

Well folks as I predicted few days ago, National is down. Fortunately that didn’t help Chicken Little. So the only option left for the deranged mentally insane elements at The Stranded is to talk up Winnie/Chicken Little/Tuatara & Shaw of the Dead coalition.

I am bitterly disappointed with this poll. I was secretly expecting National vote to go up…Now for the next week, this poll will be the talk of the town and Winnie will be walking around with a grin which says – “I told you so”…. Damn…

Liberty

Any poll that has NZF over 5% has to be taken with a gain of salt.
Then again it would be surprising how many racist bigots there are.
With the NZ Trump impersonator in the Daily news a few would of crawled
out of there hole. With the deluded view they are popular.

B.L.Zeebub

Indeed Andrew,lies,damned lies and statistics ,861 appears to be a ridiculously small group and is usually proven by RM being consistently wrong,whilst DPFs polling company seems to be more accurate,how does that happen?

@Andrew – if you’re sceptical about the RM result and Winston’s level of support, perhaps you should consider what DPF’s polling is telling Key and why we suddenly have this “Land tax on foreigners” proposal?

Que Mr Fawlty

Polled a full month before CB, only released now? Seems a bit smoke and mirrors to me. The last month has been a disaster for Labour and key had a great China trip. this is not contemporary in the slightest

Befriended the teens. Yeah right. The MSM media make it sound like this sexual predator is a totally innocent victim. I wonder if some 54 year man tried the same with a couple of barely overage girls what the verdict would be.

Provocation defence used

“Mr Gillman-Harris had befriended the teens and took them to the motel, where he’d allegedly offered to pay for sex.”

Boris Piscina

jonar

@PhilPTotal wank-fest over at the Stranded. National are doomed I tell you, doomed. If you believe them over there! Good luck Liarbore, Gweens and Winne First.

The same thing happens here when the polls show Labour falling. But really, aren’t these polls meaningless without the margin of error? National fell 2.5% – without the margin of error we’ve got no idea whether this is significant or not.

tvb

Roy Morgan is considered the least reliable. But Brownmail is extracting a political price. It might be preferable to ditch the Maori Party in favour of NZF. PEter Dunne will lose his leverage as well and he may not like it. But that will not matter much.

deadrightkev

cmm

The anti Trump brigade are leftist wankers or simply have not studied the man beyond TVNZ. Fair enough if he stood for dumb policy or a fascist agenda but he doesn’t represent anything but common sense. Such is the level of dumb we have on this blog sometimes.

DPF is by no means dumb but his disdain for Trump is quite illogical. There is clearly an agenda behind his posts.

On topic I note that the CP is still polling at or around Act, UF and the MP. It will only take a positive outcome for Colin Craig in his court battles and his return to prop their polling up again.

I am very disappointed in his sudden disappearance from public view but who knows what will happen. There is lots of time before the next election.

Boris Piscina

Yeah, I can’t wait to see Colin Craig’s next sensual-in-the-grass photo shoot, or hear what he thinks about Smart Meters irradiating people while spying on them, or read the headlines about him molesting his next press secretary.

Liberty

CMM
I normally agree with your rants. But when it comes to Trump
you are wrong. The man is a fool.
For Trump to come this far in the primaries . Says a lot about
Heartland America. Democracy has it failing.