• The Arab world has been in a systemic crisis for the last 200 years
• It missed out on the industrial revolution, it is missing out on the digital revolution
• Lack of inner resources to cope with modern world

4

Shattered Arab self-esteem

• Shattered self-esteem
• Could God be wrong?
• Turn the rage against those who contradict God: the West, object of hatred
• A whole generation of violently anti-Western, anti-American, anti-modern shock-troops

5

What has the Arab world
produced?

• Since independence, wars have been the principal output of the Arab world
• Demographic and economic problems made intractable by failure to establish stable polities aiming at prosperity
• All Arab states are either failing states or threatened to fail

6

The Crisis of the Arab world
reaches a climax

• The tension between the Arab world and the modern world has reached a climax
• The Arab world's home-made problems overwhelm its ability to cope
• The crisis is consequently being exported to the rest of the world

7

How does change occur in the
Arab world?

• There is no agora, no public space for debating ideas, interests, policies
• The tribal group in power blocks all avenues of change, represses all advocates of change
• Plot, riot, murder, coup are the only available means to bring about political change

8

The continuation of politics by other
means?

• In the Arab world, violence is not a continuation of politics by other means -- violence is politics, politics is violence
• This culture of violence is the prime enabler of terrorism
• Terror as an accepted, legitimate means of carrying out politics, has been incubated for 30 years ...

9

The crisis cannot be contained to the
Arab world alone

• The crisis has irreversibly spilled out of the region
• 9/11 was a symptom of the "overflow"
• The paroxysm is liable to last for several decades
• U.S. response will decisively influence the duration and outcome

10

"Saudi" Arabia

11

The old partnership

• Once upon a time, there was a partnership between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia
• Partnerships, like alliances, are embodied in practices, ideas, policies, institutions, people -- which persist after the alliance has died

12

"Saudi" Arabia

• An instable group: Since 1745, 58% of all rulers of the House of Saud have met a violent demise
• Wahhabism loathes modernity, capitalism, human rights, religious freedom, democracy, republics, an open society -- and practices the very opposite
• As long as enmity had no or little consequences outside the kingdom, the bargain between the House of Saud and the U.S. held

• God placed the oil in the kingdom as a sign of divine approval
• Spread Wahhabism everywhere, but keep the power of the al-Saud undiminished
• Survive by creating a Wahhabi-friendly environment -- fundamentalist regimes -- throughout the Moslem world and beyond

16

The House of Saud today

• Saudi Arabia is central to the self-destruction of the Arab world and the chief vector of the Arab crisis and its outwardly-directed aggression
• The Saudis are active at every level of the terror chain, from planners to financiers, from cadre to foot-soldier, from ideologist to cheerleader
• Saudi Arabia supports our enemies and attacks our allies
• A daily outpouring of virulent hatred against the U.S. from Saudi media, "educational" institutions, clerics, officials -- Saudis tell us one thing in private, do the contrary in reality

17

Strategies

18

What is to be done?

• During and after World War I, Britain's India Office backed the House of Saud; the Foreign Office backed the Hashemites. The India Office won
• But the entire post-1917 Middle East settlement designed by the British to replace the Ottoman Empire is fraying
• The role assigned to the House of Saud in that arrangement has become obsolete -- and nefarious

19

"Saudi Arabia" is not a God-given entity

• The House of Saud was given dominion over Arabia in 1922 by the British
• It wrested the Guardianship of the Holy Places -- Mecca and Medina -- from the Hashemite dynasty
• There is an "Arabia," but it needs not be "Saudi"

20

An ultimatum to the House of Saud

• Stop any funding and support for any fundamentalist madrasa, mosque, ulama, predicator anywhere in the world
• Stop all anti-U.S., anti-Israeli, anti-Western predication, writings, etc., within Arabia
• Dismantle, ban all the kingdom's "Islamic charities," confiscate their assets
• Prosecute or isolate those involved in the terror chain, including in the Saudi intelligence services

21

Or else ...

• What the House of Saud holds dear can be targeted:
—Oil: the old fields are defended by U.S. forces, and located in a mostly Shiite area
—Money: the Kingdom is in dire financial straits, its valuable assets invested in dollars, largely in the U.S.
—The Holy Places: let it be known that alternatives are being canvassed

22

Other Arabs?

• The Saudis are hated throughout the Arab world: lazy, overbearing, dishonest, corrupt
• If truly moderate regimes arise, the Wahhabi-Saudi nexus is pushed back into its extremist corner
• The Hashemites have greater legitimacy as Guardians of Mecca and Medina