Why the Coalition Will Have a Long Honeymoon

By Iain Martin

ZUMApress.com

Prime Minister David Cameron on the phone in his office on 10 Downing St.

As James Forsyth points out, the coalition is having quite a honeymoon. In opposition, David Cameron was fond of saying that in the event of him getting to Number 10 any bounce would last about five minutes. The cuts that his new government would have to make would be so severe that public opinion would turn quickly against his administration. That is not how it looks now — and he has cover for his cuts in his alliance with Clegg. They can say that they have united to clean up the mess of the public finances.

The coalition is popular according to opinion polls and the national mood is for giving this new hybrid a chance. Barring some kind of shock event, the honeymoon will be a long affair. Why?

The coalition appeals to British nontribalist instincts. Deep in the British psyche — or in a large part of the electorate — is a wish for politicians to bury their differences and cooperate in the national interest: “Why can’t they stop all their squabbling and get on with sorting it out?” This nontribal party now has its first government since the war and it would take a great amount of provocation to convince people that they had been wrong to wish for it. “Give it a go” will be the sentiment, apart from amongst the most hardened Labour, Lib-Dem and Tory tribalists. The Queen — notional head of the nontribal faction — looked absolutely delighted the other day as young Mr. Cameron arrived at the Palace.

The British are actually tired of hating their government. They will find a bit of optimism really refreshing. They don’t usually expect to actively like those who govern them, but holding the governing class in such contempt for such a long period (from the Iraq war if not before) has become wearing. When Janet Street Porter is writing in the Independent on Sunday that it’s wonderful and that these guys should be given a chance then you know something novel has happened.

The personality of Cameron. Take ideology out of it and he always was going to be good at the business of being prime minister. On the mechanics of the job — making the political weather, speaking over the heads of party to country, delegation and deal-making — he’s a natural. Now that this is apparent it will banish a good many of the doubts entertained by the voters he failed to convince on May 6.

The eternal pragmatism of British elites. Across business, the city, chunks of the media and in the upper echelons of the civil service, the coalition will be seen as “the only show in town.” There will be a determination to get behind the Cameron-Clegg arrangement and to bury, or dismiss, concerns over such stuffy old notions as the rights of Parliament, the constitution, etc.

The grumbling Tory right is not — yet — organized against the coalition. In time, I suspect, it will coalesce around a core of 50 or so MPs and start to make specific criticisms and demands. Among the ranks of the new intake of Conservative MPs will probably be a future Tory leader of whom nothing has yet been heard — he or she will probably define themselves against Cameron. For now that looks a long way off, but remember that when Disraeli started agitating against Peel he was mocked. He got his man in the end with messy consequences. At the moment the Tory right is just a rabble making noises off.

Comments (5 of 7)

John Humphrys and Andrew Marr are s quite out of tune with their listeners; cynical rather than hopeful, divisive rather than uniting. Their attitude will be their downfall.

11:01 am May 17, 2010

Bugger (the Panda) wrote :

Deep in the British psyche — or in a large part of the electorate — is a wish for politicians to bury their differences and co-operate in the national interest

Maybe not in Scotland though?

9:46 am May 17, 2010

dearieme wrote :

I didn't warm to Cameron at all before the election. Since then he has acted audaciously, intelligently and with good manners. Clegg and his party have impressed me too. But, dear God, they are following the Blair-Brown government, which was perhaps the worst for a couple of hundred years, so they have a mountain to climb.

9:21 am May 17, 2010

oldrightie wrote :

As an "Oldrightie" I object to the chatterati now seeking to demonise my instinctive political leanings. If one looks at political philosophy in an unbiased manner, Conservatism is about preserving that which is good and changing that which palpably fails. Socialism is about promoting failure over success. The Coalition deserves every chance to succeed. I support it wholeheartedly as the only way the "no money left" Labour disaster can be salvaged. Over time that which was always good about the UK might well surface again.

9:02 pm May 16, 2010

Leo wrote :

Your fifth point seems to imply that the next leader of the Conservative party is likely to come from the right of the party, given that defying the leader will involved rejecting what now looks like a rather cosy centrist/centre-right consensus between Cameron and Clegg (barring splits). That's possible, but i think that (bearing in mind the personality and style of leaders now often seems to matter more than, or rather to stand in to some extent for, their ideological views) the bigger imperative will be for the next Tory leader will be for them to be someone who sounds and looks like they're from a different mould to the young, PR-friendly, slightly-too-polished Blair/Cameron mould. Obviously sounding and looking young and photogenic is good, but Obama is a classic example of someone who was also a conspicuous outsider to the millieu of the elites he was looking to lead, and who reaped the benefits of such a combination electorally. It's possible that someone on the right of the Tories could have that combination, but i think it unlikely. Someone like Rory Stewart seems more plausible. Possibly.

I suppose my slight disagreement with you about the kind of person the next leader is likely to be rests on an assumption that the Tory party will choose wisely. Given they made 3 erroneous choices in opposition before getting it right with Cameron, they of course may not.