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Fatal shootings in Toronto have doubled in 2016 compared with last year’s number at this point in the year. But experts caution these early statistics don’t say much about the state of Toronto’s streets.

At this point in 2015, the city had seen six fatal shootings, while in 2013 and 2014 the number was eight.

This year’s figure represents a 116 per cent increase, but Jooyoung Lee, an expert in gun violence and assistant professor in the department of sociology at the University of Toronto, said that isn’t as significant as it might look.

Year-to-date numbers are tricky to analyze, he said, because there can be wild variations in shootings in certain months.

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“There are some years where there’s a spike in violence in one month, and it makes people panic, and they feel like the violence rate is soaring out of control, but if you look in the last 10 years, the overall numbers for homicides and shootings are fairly consistent,” Lee said.

Data compiled by the Star shows the annual toll of shooting deaths over the past 11 years peaked in 2005, at 52. Since then it’s been steadily decreasing: to 42 in 2007 and 34 in 2012.

These long-term trends are better indicators, according to Akwasi Owusu-Bempah, an expert on crime in Toronto and assistant professor of criminal justice at Indiana University.

“We’re a little over three months into the year … and simply looking at a change in data or change in shooting deaths over three years is going to tell us very little,” he said.

“If you want to examine it, you’d want to look at perhaps data over 10 years or more.”

Year-to-date numbers can provide some useful information, Lee said. For example, statistics collected over several years show that summers are usually when gun violence spikes in Toronto, a trend seen across North America.

“There are a number of different theories about why that’s the case. I think the most pragmatic one is that in the winter, people are just kind of tucked away from each other and there are less occasions for violence,” he said.

Even if the numbers don’t mean much right now, Irvin Waller, a professor at the University of Ottawa and author of several books on Canadian crime, said the shootings should still be taken seriously.

“This is Canada, not the United States. We need to take any level of gun-related homicides seriously, and any level of non-lethal shootings as seriously,” Waller said.

Waller added he believes the solution doesn’t lie in the hands of police, but those of city hall. He points to initiatives like those taken in Glasgow, which proved effective at reducing violent crime in a short time.

“You have to invest in something other than policing … the police are part of the strategy, but it has to be at the level of the city,” he said.

When asked at what point year-to-date numbers can predict how violent 2016 is going to be, Lee said he thinks we need a few more months.

“I would say maybe at the halfway point; that can be a good indicator, because that’s the beginning of the summer, and it shows where you’re at,” he said.

“But again, I don’t really rely too much on year-to-date stats, largely because there’s just so much variability month-to-month, and year-to-year.”

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Here are some of Toronto’s most notable shootings in recent years.

2011: Caribbean Carnival Shooting

What started as a three-way tussle over a firearm ended with one person dead and two more injured in a deadly shooting at the annual Carribean Carnival. Though the deceased was shot by police, the other two injured were hit by stray bullets from a gun that was being fought over by three people. At the time, media reported that two men were robbing people at the carnival until a third man caught them on camera, resulting in the fight.

2012: Eaton Centre Shooting

Christopher Husbands shot and killed two men at the Eaton Centre food court and shot a 13-year-old boy in the head; the boy miraculously survived. Husbands was sentenced to 30 years to life in 2015. (RICK MADONIK)

Perhaps one of the most infamous shootings in recent history, the Eaton Centre incident began when Christopher Husbands opened fire on the crowded food court in the shopping mall. Husbands killed two men that day, Ahmed Hassan, 24, and Nixon Nirmalendran, 22. A 13-year-old boy was also shot in the head but miraculously survived. Husbands was sentenced to 30 years to life in 2015.

2013: Yusuf Tifow

Yusuf Tifow, 16, was shot in 2013, within a few days of beginning Grade 11.

Tifow, 16, was killed on Sept. 1, 2013, inside an apartment on Weston Rd. A 14-year-old boy was charged with manslaughter and various gun-related offences. At the bail hearing for the boy charged, Tifow’s father told the Star his son loved playing basketball, and was due to start Grade 11 a few days after he was killed.

2014: Zaid Youssef and Michael Menjivar

Jina Samouie mourned the death of her only child, Zaid Youssef, after he and another teen, Michael Menjivar, were shot dead close to Don Bosco high school in 2014. (STEVE RUSSELL)

It started as a lunchtime brawl outside of Don Bosco Catholic Secondary School, but it ended up with two teens being fatally shot in broad daylight. Zaid Youssef, 17, and Michaell Menjivar, 15, were found across the street behind an apartment complex. Police told the victim’s families at the time they didn’t believe Youssef or Menjivar were the intended targets.

2015: Moka Café shooting

Two died and two others were injured in a what police called a "targeted" shooting at the Moka espresso bar in Vaughan in June 2015. (MELISSA RENWICK)

On June 24, 2015, a man walked in to the usually quiet Moka Café in Vaughan and opened fire, killing two people and injuring two more, including former mayoral candidate Rocco di Paola.

Residents in the area spoke in fearful terms of the café and its residents in the immediate aftermath of the shooting, describing glistening Ferraris that would often be parked outside of the café.

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