3 EMIS Systems Engineering Design19a) Simulate the sales of programs at 10 football games. Use the last column in the random number table and begin at the top of the columnPrograms SoldProb.Cum Prob.Interval23000.1501 to 1524000.220.3716 to 3725000.240.6138 to 6126000.210.8262 to 8227000.18183 to 100GameRandom NumberSold172,3002602,5003772,6004495766952,700518162,4009141085average2,510Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

4 EMIS Systems Engineering Design19b) If the university decided to print 2,500 programs for each game, what would the average profit be for the 10 games simulated in part a)GameRandom NumberSoldRevenueCostProfit172,3004,6002,000$2,6002602,5005,000$3,000377449576695$3,400518162,4004,800$2,8009141085Average$2,940Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

5 EMIS Systems Engineering Design19c) If the university decided to print 2,600 programs for each game, what would the average profit be for the 10 games simulated in part a)GameRandom NumberSoldRevenueCostProfit172,3004,6002,080$2,5202602,5005,000$2,9203772,6005,200$3,120449576695518162,4004,800$2,72091410855,300Average$2,900Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

6 EMIS Systems Engineering Design20. When poor weather occurs on the day of a football game, the crowd that attends the game is only half of capacity. When this occurs, the sales of programs decreases, and the total sales, are given in the following table:Programs SoldProbability12000.2513000.2414000.1915000.1716000.15Programs must be printed two days prior to game day. The university is trying to establish a policy for determining the number of programs to print based on the weather forecast.Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

7 EMIS Systems Engineering Design20a) If the forecast is for a 20% chance of bad weather, simulate the weather for 10 games with this forecast. Use column 4 of table 5.Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

8 EMIS Systems Engineering Design20b) Simulate the demand for programs at 10 games in which the weather is bad. Use column 5 of the random number table (table 5) and begin with the first number in the column.Programs SoldProb.Cum Prob.Interval12000.2501 to 2513000.240.4926 to 4914000.190.6850 to 6815000.170.8569 to 8516000.15186 to 100GameRandom NumberSold1531,4002741,500351,2004716491,3007118139621069Average1,600Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

9 EMIS Systems Engineering Design20c) Beginning with a 20% chance of bad weather and 80% chance of good weather, develop a flow chart that would be used to prepare a simulation of the demand for football programs for 10 games.StartGenerate RandomNumber for DemandNumber for WeatherGenerate Demand fromGood weather chart andrandom numberdemandBad weather chart andCompute:Programs sold,RevenueCostProfitGood Weather?End of gamessimulatedEndYesNoCase Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

10 EMIS Systems Engineering Design20d) Suppose there is a 20% chance of bad weather and the university has decided to print 2,500 programs. Simulate the total profits that would be achieved for 10 games.Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007