Open Left - Senate 2008http://www.openleft.com
Open LeftTue, 31 Mar 2015 18:06:31 GMTContested Primaries Help, Rather Than Hurt, Democrats in General Electionshttp://www.openleft.com/diary/13018/contested-primaries-help-rather-than-hurt-democrats-in-general-elections
Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chair T.J. Rooney today declared that his goal in 2010 is to <a href="http://www.pennlive.com/statehouse/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1240371613291390.xml&coll=1">avoid a contested Democratic primary in both the Senatorial and Gubernatorial campaigns</a>:
<p><blockquote>Take the year off and chill. <Br>
<p>That's the message to Pennsylvania Democrats from state Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney, who on Monday said that, if things seem quiet, it's intentional. <Br>
<p>"Our goal in 2010 is not to have a primary," Rooney said. "Our goal is to come together as a party and, in the meantime, let the other side beat the tar out of one another."</blockquote>
<p>In making this proclamation, Chairman Rooney is relying on a longstanding bit of Democratic conventional wisdom. Namely, that closely contested Democratic primaries hurt Democratic chances in general elections. The problem with this theory is that there is no evidence to support it. In fact, a quick survey of the eight most closely contested Democratic Senate primaries in 2006 and 2008 shows that the winners of those primaries actually did pretty darn well in the general election (note: only campaigns where the general election was decided by 10% or less were examined):<Br>
<p>Wins (Five)
<br />Maryland 2006 (Cardin vs. Mfume)
<br />Minnesota 2008 (Franken vs. several)
<br />Montana 2006 (Tester vs. Morrison)
<br />Oregon 2008 (Merkley vs. Novick)
<br />Virginia 2006 (Webb vs. Harris)<Br>
<p>Losses (Two)
<br />Georgia 2008 (Martin vs. Jones)
<br />Kentucky 2008 (Lunsford vs. Fischer)<Br>
<p>Other (One)
<br />Connecticut 2006 (loss, but not to Republican)<Br>
<p>How is going 5-2-1 possibly evidence that contested primaries hurt Democratic chances in close Senate elections? Further, as a I discuss in the extended entry, polling from these campaigns immediately before and after the Democratic primary also indicates that the contested primaries were a clear benefit for the eventual winner. <br /> Only non-partisan polls used, only one poll from each polling firm:<Br>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Connecticut,_2006#Opinion_polls">Connecticut 2006</a>
<br />Pre-primary (2): Lamont -12.0%
<br />Post-primary (3): Lamont -7.2%<Br>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2008#General_election">Georgia 2008</a>
<br />Pre-primary (1): Martin -11.0%
<br />Post-primary (1): Martin -6.0%<Br>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2008#General_Election_Polling">Kentucky 2008</a>
<br />Pre-primary (1): Lunsford -12.0%
<br />Post-primary (1): Lunsford +5.0%<Br>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Maryland,_2006#Pre-election_opinion_polling">Maryland 2006</a>
<br />Pre-primary (3): Cardin +6.4%
<br />Post-primary (5): Cardin +7.2%<Br>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota,_2008#Pre-election_polling">Minnesota 2008</a>
<br />Pre-primary (3): Franken -3.0%
<br />Post-primary (4): Franken -3.3%<Br>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana,_2006#Polling">Montana 2006</a>
<br />Pre-primary (2): Tester +3.5%
<br />Post-Primary (1): Tester +7.0%<Br>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Oregon,_2008#Polling">Oregon 2008</a>
<br />Two months pre-primary (1): Merkey -13%
<br />Just pre-primary (1): Merkley -3%
<br />Post-primary (1): Merkley -9%<BR>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2006#Polling">Virginia 2006</a>
<br />Pre-primary (2): Webb -13.6%
<br />Post-primary (3): Webb -11.4%<Br>
<p>In six of the eight cases, the eventual Democratic nominee saw his numbers rise after winning the contested primary. In one of the other cases, the "drop" was only 0.3%. In the only other case, Jeff Merkley saw his numbers rise 10% during the hotly contested primary period, even if they dropped after the primary. Merkley went on to win the election anyway.<Br>
<p> There simply is no evidence that contested primaries hurt Democratic Senate candidates. If anything, the evidence is that these primaries <i>help</i> Democratic Senate candidates. This makes perfect sense, since having tons of free media, forcing your campaign into high gear, and testing your message is almost guaranteed to improve your chances in the campaign.<Br>
<p>As such, why so many Democratic Party leaders seek to avoid contested primaries is difficult to comprehend. Perhaps they are dealing with pouty, high-name ID candidates who will only enter the campaign if the primary field is cleared beforehand. Whatever the reason, it would be a positive step forward for our party and our democracy if more people started realizing that contested primaries are, much more often than not, helpful for Democratic general election chances.Senate 2010Senate 2008Senate 2006primary electionsFri, 24 Apr 2009 20:58:08 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/13018/contested-primaries-help-rather-than-hurt-democrats-in-general-electionsStill Counting and Recounting, December 15thhttp://www.openleft.com/diary/10453/
The 2008 elections are still not quite over. Here is the latest news on where things stand in the federal elections (Senate, President and House):<Br>
<p><b>Senate</b>
<br />The current partisan balance of the Senate for the 111th Congress is 55 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 2 Independents (both of whom caucus with Democrats) and 2 undecided (Illinois, <a href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/illinois_legislature_pushing_b.php">where there might be a special election</a> and <a href="http://www.openleft.com/showComment.do?commentId=134823">there might not be one</a>, and Minnesota, currently undergoing a recount). Remarkably, in the Minnesota campaign, Democrat Al Franken <I>is now likely to win</I>. The Minnesota Secretary of State <a href="http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp">currently puts Coleman's margin at 188 votes</a>, while the Star-Tribune <a href="http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/2008/recount/msenco.html">puts it at 192 votes</a>. Starting tomorrow, the state canvassing board will look at the 1,640 remaining challenged ballots. <a href="http://www.senateguru.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=462">An AP analysis shows</a> that when those challenges are resolved, Franken is likely to gain between 200-350 votes on Coleman, thus handing him victory (more in the extended entry): <br /> <blockquote>While the ultimate calls rest with the five-member Canvassing Board, the AP found that most of the ballots have clear intent and no deficiencies for which they would be disqualified under Minnesota law.<Br>
<p>The AP's examination of the remaining challenges found:<Br>
<p>--Fewer than half of the challenges left-about 1,640-are in genuine doubt. Still, that's eight times more than the current margin between the two men. <Br>
<p>---In ballots that could easily be assigned, Franken netted 200 more votes than Coleman. But that number was essentially meaningless because Coleman has withdrawn significantly fewer challenges than Franken-that is, the pool of challenges that can be awarded to Franken at this stage is notably larger.
<p>--Nearly 300 challenges wouldn't benefit either man because the voter clearly favored a third-party candidate or skipped the race.
<p>--Of the challenges that can't be reliably awarded to either candidate now, more than 400 possible Franken votes are being held up because on grounds that those voters identified their ballots through write-ins, initials, signatures, phone numbers or some other distinctive marking. At least 300 possible Coleman votes are in limbo for the same reasons.
<p>--The next biggest class of ballot that can't easily be awarded falls in the category of unclear voter intent. Nearly 600 involve cases where a voter filled in two ovals but crossed out one, put an X above or below their darkened oval or put differently sized partial marks in more than one. There are slightly more potential Franken ballots in that pile as well.</blockquote>
<p>So, Franken will almost certainly take the lead after this phase of the recount. After this phase, all that is left are 1,600 absentee ballots that have yet to be counted, and which <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/minnesota-canvassing-board-sides-with.html">project to another Franken gain of 128 votes</a>. While Norm Coleman is challenging these ballots in court, two <I>Republican</I> members of the Supreme Court were part of the unanimous canvassing board ruling to include these ballots. So, good luck with that lawsuit, Norm.<Br>
<p>Add it all up, and Franken seems like the next Senator from Minnesota. There does not appear to be anything Coleman can do to stop that now. Franken is going to win this thing.<Br>
<p><b>President</b>
<br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Grand_total">Wikipedia</a> shows Obama's lead at 52.93%-45.67%, with 131,200,378 votes counted. With all states having either "final" or "certified" vote totals, the United States Election Project shows a total turnout of 131,237,136. So, while we are still dealing with a discrepancy of up to 36,758 votes, the two sources, which I take the definitive counts, have nearly merged. The final likely vote percentages will likely be 52.93%-45.67%, although changes of .01% could still take place. These totals do not include "spoiled" ballots.<Br>
<p>Also, <a href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&fkt=2820&fsdt=4700&q=electoral+college&oe=UTF-8&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tab=wn&resnum=0&cd=1&scoring=n">the Electoral College vote is today</a>. While it is likely that the final total will be 365-173, usually at least one elector either makes a mistake or casts a protest vote. This occurred in both 2000 and 2004, for example. It is embarrassing that we still use this system.<BR>
<p><B>House</b>
<br />All House elections from November 4th (or December 6th, in Louisiana) are now decided. Democrats led 257-178 after these elections, and also scored the largest popular vote victory (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections,_2008#Results">8.88%, according to an older count</a>) in any congressional election since 1982. However, Obama's administration appointments have already led to at least a vacancy in Rahm Emanuel's seat (IL-05, PVI D+18). Xavier Bacerra (CA-31, PVI D+30) would be another vacany should be become trade representative. More vacancies may yet appear, most prominently as a result of the pending Secretary of the Interior pick. Also, each party seems to have a vacant seat, as <a href="http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/index.asp">House roll call votes 684-689</a> all show a partisan balance of 235-198. The results of the 2006 election and 2007-2008 special elections put the balance at 236-199.<Br>
<p>So, the partisan breakdown of the House will <I>probably</I> be 257-178, although there are still some special elections to be had, and the House will open with some vacancies. Later in the year, the <a href="http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d110:s.01257:">D.C. Voting Rights Act</a> will almost certainly pass into law, thereby temporarily moving the partisan breakdown to 258-179 as both D.C. and Utah gain another member of the House.<Br>
<p>****<Br>
<p>This will probably be my final "still counting and recounting" thread for 2008. From this point forward, it will either be posts on House special elections, the final Presidential totals, the Minnesota recount, or the Illinois Senate special elections. I hope you enjoyed reading these overtime run-up threads as much as I enjoyed writing them. It is always fun to step back and see the big federal election picture all at once.House 2008Senate 2008MN-SenPresident 2008Mon, 15 Dec 2008 18:43:21 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/10453/Georgia Runoff Threadhttp://www.openleft.com/diary/10242/
This is a thread for returns in the Georgia Senate race. Keep in mind that the early returns will probably, just like on November 4th, be from more pro-Chambliss areas.<Br>
<p><a href="http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1202/003.htm">47% reporting</a>
<br />Chambliss: 62.3%
<br />Martin: 37.7%<Br>
<p><b>Update</b>: Martin is underperforming November 4th <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/12/2/185251/894/165#c165">by about 8%</a>:
<p><blockquote>I have a spreadsheet comparing results by county between the runoff and the general election. &nbsp;Martin appears to be underperforming by about 8%. &nbsp;It looks like it will be a short night, unfortunately.</blockquote>
<p>Chambliss will win. It will probably be called very soon. Damn. Much now rests on Minnesota, including the Employee Free Choice Act.<Br>
<p><b>Update 2</b>: <a href="http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4076">A more optimistic projection</a>:
<p><blockquote>Martin doing 3.2% worse than his 48.5% share of the two-way vote on Nov 4th. That means he's at like 45%.<Br>
<p>Hopefully a lot of Absentee/Early Voting in the numbers. Again no democratic counties are in - with extremely low turnout, moderate turnout in those counties can win it for Martin.</blockquote>
<p><b>Update 3</b>: The numbers are really bad, and Martin is underperforming everywhere. Chambliss will win, and I will stop updating. <br />Saxby ChamblissJim MartinSenate 2008GA-SenWed, 03 Dec 2008 00:29:16 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/10242/Still Counting, Recounting, and Runoffs, Part 3http://www.openleft.com/diary/9985/
Part three of <a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9950">my continuing series</a> on the five congressional campaigns with undecided outcomes--Georgia Senate, Minnesota Senate, California 4th, Louisiana 4th, and Ohio 15th--can be found in the extended entry. There are important updates on all five campaigns. <br /> As with before, here is the current balance of partisan power in Congress:
<p><blockquote><b>Senate</b>
<br />56 Democrats
<br />40 Republicans
<br />2 Independents
<br />2 Undecided<Br>
<p><b>House</b>
<br />257 Democrats
<br />175 Republicans
<br />3 Undecided<Br>
<p>These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.</blockquote>
<p>And here are the updates:
<p><ol><li><I>California 4th</I>: After another 900 votes were counted, Democrat Charlie Brown <a href="http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/04-all.htm">has pulled within 622 votes</a> of Republican Tom McClintock. About 30,000 votes remain "unprocessed" and <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/17/162015/81/717/662385">break down as follows</a>:
<p><blockquote>El Dorado and Nevada Counties keep providing updates, but not Placer County, which is waiting until they finish to report. The assistant registrar there said that Placer County plans to complete their count by Thanksgiving.<Br>
<p>Placer had the largest number of unprocessed votes (vote-by-mail, provisionals, damaged ballots and ballots diverted by scanning machines) on election night (20,949). McClintock edges Brown 50.7% to 49.3% there.<Br>
<p>A report by the <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/roseville/story/1396617.html">Sacramento Bee</a> on Friday said that these three counties were about to start counting some 7000 provisionals, and that these have a 10% rejection rate.</blockquote>
<p>Brown only has to win the remaining votes by about 2.5% in order to emerge victorious, so this is still a winnable campaign. Nevada county leans toward Brown by 15%, while El Dorado county currently gives McClintock a 2% edge. Expect a recount to take place after Thanksgiving in this district, as well.
<p><li><I>Georgia Senate</I>: <a href="http://saxby-chambliss.com/">Saxby Chambliss</a> doesn't know what a recession is:<Br>
<p><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/yjauxs2j5W4&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/yjauxs2j5W4&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><Br>
<p>I like this ad from Jim Martin. The incorporation of local video footage and a pro-Obama message are very nice. It is healthy to see Democrats in Georgia using netroots techniques and not running away from their own party. Good stuff.<Br>
<p><li><I>Louisiana 4th</I>: Dick Cheney <a href="http://dccc.org/blog/archives/la_04_cheneys_last_stand/">is fundraising for Republican candidate John Fleming</a>. It sure would be nice to take down Bush-Cheney one last time. The DCCC has released an ad attacking Fleming's national sales tax plan:<Br>
<p><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/RJnjxnLFi_A&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/RJnjxnLFi_A&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><Br>
<p>This isn't going to be a campaign run around a lot of progressive ideas. Still, it is nice to see attacks on wingnut ideas like a national sales tax (sorry, Jerry Brown) become the focus of our paid media.<Br>
<p><li><I>Minnesota Seante</I>: <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/17/152756/32/748/662354">Yet another study</a> showing that an audit and recount will favor Franken has come out. However, <a href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/franken_camp_worried_they_migh.php">the Franken campaign is seeking to delay the certification of the vote</a>, which has the possibility of delaying the recount. Their argument is that a few hundred absentee ballots still haven't been counted. Their justifiable worry is that if Coleman is "certified" as the leader in the "official" vote count before an audit and recount begins, it will give Coleman legal leverage and an aura of credibility even if Franken pulls into the lead later on. This was one of Gore's problems during the 2000 recount, and during the Bush vs. Gore lawsuit in the Supreme Court, so it is worth being worried about. It is a good move by the Franken campaign.
<p><li><I>Ohio 15th</I>: There are 27,000 provisional ballots left to count in this campaign, where Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy trails by 149 votes. As I noted back on Saturday, almost all of those provisionals come from Franklin county, where Kilroy leads by 5%. These numbers give Kilroy an excellent chance to win this seat, and arguably make her the favorite.<Br>
<p>However, Republican Steve Stivers has filed a lawsuit trying to toss 1,000 of those provisional ballots, and the rest of the provisionals can't be counted until the lawsuit is resolved. A federal judge was supposed to rule today on the 1,000 disputed ballots, but <a href="http://www.thenews-messenger.com/article/20081117/UPDATES01/81117014">has punted his decision until Thursday</a>:
<p><Blockquote>A federal judge in Columbus says he'll decide by Thursday whether to allow disputed provisional ballots to be counted in a tight central Ohio congressional race.</blockquote>
<p>This honestly feels like a delaying tactic from Stivers to prevent any of the provisional ballots to be counted. Kilroy is the favorite even if these 1,000 ballots are tossed, and it seems like Stivers is just trying to hold onto the lead as long as possible in order to give him the aura of victory. I don't think it will work, and I still expect Kilroy to win this seat.</ol>
<p>Remember, we need one of the two Senate campaigns to pass <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employee_Free_Choice_Act">the Employee Free Choice Act</a>, and both in order to reach 60 Senate votes if Lieberman stays in the caucus. The House seats are pretty much gravy, but still important.GA-SenMN-SenCA-04LA-04OH-15recountsHouse 2008Senate 2008Tue, 18 Nov 2008 02:00:00 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9985/Still Counting, Recounting, and Runoffs, Part Twohttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9950/
Here is the current balance of power in Congress:<Br>
<p><b>Senate</b>
<br />56 Democrats
<br />40 Republicans
<br />2 Independents
<br />2 Undecided<Br>
<p><b>House</b>
<br />257 Democrats
<br />175 Republicans
<br />3 Undecided<Br>
<p>These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.<br>
<p>The two remaining Senate seats in my chart are Georgia (December 2nd run-off) and Minnesota (recount starts next week). The three remaining House seats are the California 4th (still counting 35,000 provisional and absentee ballots), the Louisiana 4th (December 6th run-off) and the Ohio 15th (still counting 27,000 provisional ballots, pending lawsuit) I discuss the current state of each of those campaigns in the extended entry. <br /> <b>Senate Races</b>
<br /><ul><li><I>Georgia</i>: Have you started linking to <a href="http://saxby-chambliss.com/">Saxby Chambliss</a> yet? The more people who do, the higher it will appear in search engine rankings. If we can push it into the first ten results for <a href="http://saxby-chambliss.com/">Saxby Chambliss</a> in Georgia, then it will result in a lot of excellent voter contacts. Everyone who encounters the site will be a voter looking for more information on <a href="http://saxby-chambliss.com/">Saxby Chambliss</a>, and we can show them this great website <a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9285">made by an enterprising activist</a>.<Br>
<p>There is still <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/13/114615/18/645/660407">only one post-election poll in Georgia</a>, showing <a href="http://saxby-chambliss.com/">Saxby Chambliss</a> up 3%. Martin is racking up <a href="http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/19359">$50,000 a day on Act Blue</a>, Obama <a href="http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1858226,00.html">has sent staff</a>, McCain has stumped for <a href="http://saxby-chambliss.com/">Chambliss</a>, and both the NRSC and DSCC are running ads. I like the new DSCC ad:<Br>
<p><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/vuFd--osc_g&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/vuFd--osc_g&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><Br>
<p>The best part about this ad is that it makes a <I>partisan</I> case against gridlock, rather than a bi-partisan one. In this ad, the presence of large numbers of Republicans in the Senate is the source of gridlock, rather than vague platitudes about "working with both sides." The former is a better argument, because it actually makes sense.<Br>
<p><li><I>Minnesota</I>: This one is moving onto the recount stage, which will begin next week. Franken's deficit has been reduced to 200 votes in the final pre-recount audit, according to <a href="http://the-uptake.groups.theuptake.org/en/videogalleryView/id/1300/">The Uptake</a>. Also, <a href="http://www.dartmouth.edu/~herron/mn.pdf">a new study has come out</a>, suggesting that Franken will gain votes once Minnesota ballots with undervotes on the Senate campaign are examined. Franken is also expected to gain from the regular recounting, so this one is going to be very close. Expect the fight to come down to legal inspections of individual ballots, a process that will begin on December 16th. This will, in all likelihood, be the last campaign to be decided this year. There might even be a dispute at the Senate swearing in ceremony in the first week of January!</ul>
<p><B>House Races</b>
<br /><ul><li><I>California 04</i>: Democrat Charlie Brown currently trails Republican Tom McClintock <a href="http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/0459.htm">by 691 votes</a>. Approximately 35,000 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted in this campaign, plus a small but undetermined number of "regular" votes in two pro-McClintock counties and one toss-up county (<a href="http://swingstateproject.com/showComment.do?commentId=41516">source</a>). Pending the remaining 35,000 votes, neither side has declared victory, and both will attend freshman orientation next week. Brown will have to do well among the absentees in order to win this. He should, just like all Democrats, do well among the provisionals. No word on when all of the votes will be counted here.
<p><li><I>Louisiana 04</i>: No news here. As with last time, this is a Republican-leaning district (R+7), with dueling polls. <a href="http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3918">The internal Democratic poll</a>, with a 4.0% margin of error, shows Paul Carmouche ahead by 10%. <a href="http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3930">The internal Republican poll</a>, with a laughable margin of error of 8.3%, shows the Republican ahead by 5%. This campaign leans Democratic, but only slightly. In the Louisiana 6th race a couple weeks ago, <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/la/08-la-06-ge-cvc.php">the Republican made up a lot of ground in the final days to squeak out a win</a>.
<p><li><I>Ohio 15</I>: Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy currently trails Republican Steve Stivers by 149 votes. 27,000 provisional ballots, almost all in Democratic-leaning Franklin county, remain to be counted. Stivers is challenging about 1,000 of those ballots in court, with <a href="http://www.wtte28.com/template/inews_wire/wires.regional.oh/3b170268-www.wtte28.com.shtml">a ruling due out on Monday</a>:
<p><blockquote>A federal judge says he'll rule Monday on whether he has jurisdiction in a case involving a still-unresolved congressional race and provisional ballots.<Br>
<p>U.S. District Court Judge Algenon Marbley says he'll hear from both sides Monday if he decides he can hear the case.<Br>
<p>If not, Marbley says he'll send the issue back to the Ohio Supreme Court where it was originally filed.</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#OHH15p1">Kilroy currently leads by 5% in Franklin county</a>, suggesting that she stands to gain about 1,250 votes from the provisional ballots even if the 1,000 Stivers is challenging are tossed. With her expected gains more than 1,000 votes larger than her current deficit, it seems quite likely that Mary Jo Kilroy will win this district.
<p>Oh, and I should add than a 10% provisional ballot rate in this district is a travesty. Pathetic.</ul>
<p>My current guess is that we win two of the three House seats, making for a total of D 259-176 R, exactly one seat under my projection. In the Senate, I don't feel like we are the favorite in either campaign, but we do have a good chance to win at least one of them. If we do, then we will have enough seats to pass <a href="http://www.aflcio.org/joinaunion/voiceatwork/efca/">The Employee Free Choice Act</a>, providing card check law nationwide and an opportunity to transform the American workplace. We already have enough seats to pass really all of Obama's agenda.<Br>
<p>In the national U.S. House popular vote, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2008#Results">Democrats currently lead by 8.88%</a>, making it the largest popular vote victory in either a national Presidential or Congressional campaign since 1984. That is a real accomplishment for Chris Van Hollen.<Br>
<p>Oh yeah, and in the presidential campaign, Obama's popular vote lead has grown to 52.70%--46.00%. I look forward to the moment when McCain dips below 46%, although my hope for a 7.00% victory now seems highly unlikely. The only remaining state to be called, Missouri, will complete counting on Monday. McCain currently holds a 4,900 vote lead, and will probably hang on to win the state. The final electoral vote count should be Obama 365-173 McCain. Not bad!GA-SenMN-SenaterecountsCA-04LA-04OH-15House 2008Senate 2008President 2008MissouriSun, 16 Nov 2008 00:00:00 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9950/Still Counting, Recounting and Runoff Compendiumhttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9915/
With the Alaska Senate campaign turning heavily in favor of Democrat Mark Begich, in the extended entry I provide a run-down of the five closest campaigns that have still not been called, who is likely to win each campaign, and what it means for the overall balance of power. All of that, plus election forecasting notes can be found in the extended entry. <br /> Here is the best of what's left:<Br>
<p><b>Election Run-offs</b>
<br /><ul><li><I>Georgia Senate</I>: The run-off for Georgia Senate will take place on December 2nd. The only post-election poll on the campaign comes from Daily Kos / Research 2000, <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/13/114615/18/645/660407">showing Republican Saxby Chambliss ahead 49%-46%</a>. Turnout for the run-off will <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/georgia-runoff-will-be-tough-on.html">only be about 50%-60% November 4th levels</a>. Also, it is unlikely that African-Americans, who were about two-thirds of Martin's voters on November 4th, will turnout at such high levels. So, the odds do not favor us on this one.<Br>
<p>However, <a href="http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/19359">Jim Martin's Act Blue pages are hopping</a>, I am still running <a href="http://www.openleft.com/tag.do?tag=personal%20paid%20media">Personal Paid Media</a> for this campaign:
<p><a href="http://savannahnow.com/node/601042"><img src="http://www.openleft.com/upload/Chambliss1.JPG"></a><br>
<p>If you are running a Personal Paid Media campaign, or if you are simply interested in a form of search engine activism that is free, considering sending your ads to <a href="http://saxby-chambliss.com/">Saxby-Chambliss.com</a> or embedding that website in a hyperlink whenever you write <a href="http://saxby-chambliss.com/">Saxby Chambliss</a>. The site was created by a progressive activist who just noticed that <a href="http://saxby-chambliss.com/">Saxby Chambliss</a> had left the URL wide open.<Br>
<p><li><i>Louisiana 4th</i>: Louisiana run-off elections will take pace on December 7th, making this the closing event of the 2008 campaign season. The district is R+7, but Democrat Paul Carmouche leads Republican Republican John Fleming by 10% <a href="http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3918">according to an internal poll</a>. Fleming did release <a href="http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3930">a counter-internal poll</a> showing him up 5%, but it has a hilariously small sample size of 140, and a margin of error over 8%. This campaign is somewhere between a toss-up and leaning Democratic.</ul>
<p><b>Election Recounts</b>
<br /><ul><li><I>Minnesota Senate</I>: Entering the recount, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by 206 votes. The vote will be certified on November 19th, and the recount will begin soon thereafter at 100+ sites across the state. Each campaign will have a lawyer at each site. After the recount, on December 16th, the canvassing board will begin to rule, one by one, on challenged ballots. Further, a fight over 461 disqualified absentee ballots in one county will go to court.<Br>
<p>So, this one is going to take a while. Franken will likely gain votes in the recount, but finding 207 will be difficult. The fact is that it is better to be ahead than behind in this situation. <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/13/84113/162/386/646420">WineRev has a complete breakdown of the timeline and key players</a>.
<p><li><I>California 4th</I>: Democrat Charlie Brown <a href="http://vote.sos.ca.gov/close.html">currently trails by 815 votes in this district</a>. There are a few votes left to count, and a recount is also likely. However, the campaign is in a holding pattern until the first count is completed. This one looks unlikely.
<p><li><I>Ohio 15th</I>: Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy currently trails by 149 votes, with provisional ballots pending. There are thousands of provisional ballots, which always favor Democrats, and two years ago Kilroy gained more than 150 votes in that phase of the counting. This one still seems like a toss-up.</ul>
<p><b>Balance of Power</b>
<br />There are a few other House seats that some consider undecided, but which I did not list here. While some are still waiting on AK-AL, I'm calling it for the Republican incumbent Don Young. Also, some are waiting on the LA-02 runoff with William Jefferson, but I have no doubt he will win. Finally, others are waiting on VA-05, but Tom Perriello will win there.<Br>
<p>Overall, this puts the balance of partisan power in the U.S. House at D 257-175 R, with three campaigns outstanding. Either D 259-176 R or D 258-177 R appears to be the most likely final outcome, given that Republicans are favored in CA-04, Democrats are favored in LA-04, and OH-15 really is a toss-up.<Br>
<p>In the Senate, I didn't list Alaska, but <a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9908">Mark Begich will win</a>. This provides Democrats 56 seats plus Sanders and, as is appearing more likely all the time, plus Lieberman. Republicans right now only have 40 seats in the Senate, which is why I indicated last night that we are close to the point where Republicans don't matter anymore. Even though such a sentence smacks of hubris, I mostly stand by that assessment. It is accurate to say that if Franken and Martin both win, then Republicans won't really matter for pretty much all of 2009. So, we are close to the point where Republicans won't matter for a little while.<Br>
<p>In the Presidential election, <a href="http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/">Obama currently leads the popular vote</a> 52.69% to 46.01%. His margin has been steadily increasing over the last nine days, and will continue to do so until the final numbers are certified later this month. Missouri's eleven electoral votes are currently undecided, but Obama would need to make up 5,000 votes among provisional ballots. That seems unlikely, and the final electoral count will almost certainly be Obama 365-173 McCain.<Br>
<p>That one electoral vote in Nebraska will really narrow down the final contestants for the Mac Book on Daily Kos's election contest. I won't be winning that, but <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/no_20081112_7324.php">I did win National Journal's contest for bloggers</a>. That's something, I guess. Also, once final results are certified across all states, I will be interested to see how the various polling forecasting methodologies fared against one another. Specifically, I want to see how my method fared against fivethirtyeight and pollster.com. They both know more about polls and statistics than I do, but I wouldn't count my method out before the final numbers are in. I'm pretty sure there was virtually no difference in average error.<Br>
<p>CQ Politics also has <a href="http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002985549&parm1=1&cpage=1">a good rundown</a> of campaigns that are still undecided.President 2008House 2008Senate 2008recountsMN-SenGA-SenLA-04OH-15CA-04Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:30:00 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9915/Begich To Win Alaska After Allhttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9908/
After eight days of waiting, <a href="http://www.elect.alaska.net/data/results.htm">Alaska finally started counting votes again</a>. With about 30,000 votes remaining to be counted, one-third of which are from <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/12/11522/592/209/659818">Democratic-friendly precincts</a> and <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/12/11522/592/209/659818">two-thirds of which are "questionable" ballots</a> that always favor Democrats, Begich currently holds an 814 vote lead.<BR>
<p>Stick a fork in this one. Begich is going to win. Better Democratic Senate candidates remain undefeated. Now, a victory from either Franken or Martin will deliver <a href="http://www.aflcio.org/joinaunion/voiceatwork/efca/">the Employee Free Choice Act</a>, and structurally shift the country to the left. This win is a huge boost. We are almost at the point where Republicans just don't matter anymore.<br>
<p>The one drawback: Sarah Palin as a Senator would have been pretty funny. <br />AK-SenMark BegichSenate 2008Thu, 13 Nov 2008 08:07:23 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9908/More Quick Victorieshttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9851/
<a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6303">Back in July</a>, I compiled a list of legislation that would have passed in the 110th Congress if Democrats held eight more seats in the Senate and 20 more seats in the House. Here is the list (more in the extended entry: <br /> <b>Democratic trifecta legislation</b>
<p><blockquote><ol><li>H.R. 1591, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Troop_Readiness%2C_Veterans%27_Care%2C_Katrina_Recovery%2C_and_Iraq_Accountability_Appropriations_Act%2C_2007">U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans' Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, 2007</a>. Withdrawing between 100,000 to 120,000 of the 160,000 American military troops in Iraq.
<br /><li><a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00241">Webb amendment to HR 1585</a>: To specify minimum periods between deployment of units and members of the Armed Forces for Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom.
<br /><li><a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00227">Employee Free Choice Act of 2007</a>. Making it easier to join a union.
<br /><li><a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00110"> Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act</a>. Another worker's right's bill.
<br /><li><a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00339"> District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act </a>: A bill to provide the District of Columbia a voting seat and the State of Utah an additional seat in the House of Representatives.
<br /><li><a href="http://holt.house.gov/voting.shtml">Rush Holt's verified voting bill</a>. A verified paper trail for every vote cast in America.
<br /><li><a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00340">Specter amendment to HR 1585</a>: To restore habeas corpus for those detained by the United States.
<br /><li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Children%27s_Health_Insurance_Program"> H.R. 976, Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2007</a>. Expanding children's health care.
<br /><li><a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00132"> Medicare Prescription Drug Price Negotiation Act </a>: A bill to amend part D of title XVIII of the Social Security Act to provide for fair prescription drug prices for Medicare beneficiaries.
<br /><li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stem_Cell_Research_Enhancement_Act_of_2007">Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act of 2007</a>. Increasing stem cell research.
<br /><li><a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00425">Renewable Fuels, Consumer Protection, and Energy Efficiency Act</a>. Increased investment in renewable energy.
<br /><li><a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00412">Harkin amendment to the Farm Bill</a>. Not sure what this is, but it probably will pass when we get six more votes in the Senate.
<br /><li><a href="http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00145">Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act</a>. A centrist global warming bill that doesn't do much to stop global warming, from what I have heard.</ol></blockquote>
<br />On the House side, the mission has been accomplished, as the requisite number of seats have been acquired. On the Senate side, we currently stand at six pickups, with Alaska, Georgia and Minnesota still undecided.<Br>
<p>A week after the election, the Senate remains surprisingly in flux, with Democratic pickups standing at anywhere from six to nine seats. Fortunately, with six pickups, we get everything on this list except the Employee Free Choice Act. <a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6303">As we are already seeing</a>, expect just about the entire list to be passed swiftly, since the Democratic trifecta will be itching for early successes.<Br>
<p>In order to get the Employee Free Choice Act, we need eight pickups in the Senate, which means two our of three of the undecided campaigns. The Georgia Senate campaign will be decided on December 2nd via run-off election, so our path to winning that seat is obvious. Without any third party candidates, and without the assistance of Obama's turnout machine, Democrat Jim Martin is definitely the underdog in the campaign. However, it is far from over, and <a href="http://www.actblue.com/page/olbd">you can help out here</a>. The Alaska and Minnesota Senate campaigns will be decided via counting and re-counting, and both campaigns should probably be considered toss-ups at the moment (Nate Silver breaks down the numbers for <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/uncounted-votes-may-push-begich-past.html">Alaska</a> and <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/frankens-odds-of-winning-recount-may-be.html">Minnesota</a>). So, we can still get the Employee Free Choice Act, too, even if the odds don't favor us at the moment.CongressObama administrationSenate 2008Mon, 10 Nov 2008 18:33:43 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9851/Recounting Where Things Standhttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9726/
In the extended entry, I take a quick look at where the campaigns for President, Senate and House currently stand. Lots of counting, and recounting, to be done.<br>
<p>More in the extended entry. <br /> <b>President</b>
<br />Looks like 364-174, with Obama winning the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, <b>Indiana</b>, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, <b>North Carolina</b>, Ohio, and Virginia. Doesn't look good in Missouri.<br>
<p>Right now, turnout is at about 119 million, which would be down 3 million from 2004. However, there are millions of absentee ballots still to be counted, <a href="http://www.washblade.com/thelatest/thelatest.cfm?blog_id=22198">possibly three million in California alone</a>.<br>
<p>In the popular vote, looks like Obama won by about 6.5%. That number could grow to 7.0% as ore votes are counted.<br>
<p><b>Senate</b>
<br />Democrats have 54 seats, Republicans 40, and Independents 2. There are four remaining campaigns:
<br /><ol><li>We are tailing in Alaska, and it doesn't look good. Probably one for Republicans. Something strange happened in Alaska.
<br /><li>Georgia will have a run-off. Four more weeks of campaigning for Jim Martin.
<br /><li>Minnesota is headed to a recount. Right now, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapSMN">Coleman leads by 694 votes, with all precincts reporting</a>. The provisional ballots, which always favor Democrats, will come into play as well. Not over by a longshot. <a href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/minnesota_senate_race_not_over.php">AP already retracted their call for Coleman</a>. Recount and certification will take at least two weeks.
<br /><li>Oregon is close, <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/5/12438/2991/569/654389">but seems like it will be OK</a>.</ol>
<p>If we win Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon, we get the Employee Free Choice Act. However, we need all three. Right now, I think we are only the favorite in one (Oregon). I can see pulling off one upset, but both will be difficult.<Br>
<p><b>House</b>
<br /><a href="http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=B479603A21BBF1DB2B996FB61CBA9CBD?diaryId=3857">Swing State Project has the most concise round-up I can find</a>. It looks like Democrats have 256 seats right now, counting ID-01, MD-01, and VA-05 for our side, with six undecided. Three campaigns, NJ-03, SC-01, and WA-08 are yet to be counted. There will be two run-offs in Louisiana. Also, CA-04 is headed to a recount, but we are trailing.<Br>
<p>This is a net 20-seat pickup so far. Looks like we will come in on the lower end of my 21-27 seat range, and probably not hit the 24 which I labeled my best guess.<Br>
<p>****<Br>
<p>Most campaigning is over, but there is still another month to go in some areas. I will continue to monitor the 2008 elections as long as they continue.<Br>
<p><b>Update</b>: <a href="http://www.bluejersey.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9639">Democrat Adler wins NJ-03</a>. That makes a 21 seat gain for Democrats.<Br>
<p><b>Update 2</b>: <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/5/122142/070/534/654416">It appears we have lost SC-01</a>. &nbsp;House 2008Senate 2008President 2008recountsWed, 05 Nov 2008 18:35:08 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9726/Senate Results Threadhttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9687/
<b>Key Senate Races</b>
<br /><table border="1">
<tr>
<th>State</th>
<th>Reporting</th>
<th>Dem %</th>
<th>Rep %</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alaska</td>
<td>96%</td>
<td>47%</td>
<td>48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Georgia</td>
<td>99%</td>
<td>46%</td>
<td>50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Minnesota</td>
<td>99%</td>
<td>42%</td>
<td>42%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oregon</td>
<td>71%</td>
<td>47%</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr></table>
<br />Democratic seats: 54
<br />Republican seats: 40
<br />Independent seats: 2
<br />Undecided: 4
<br />Pickups: Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia<Br>
<p><b>Update 10</b>: All four Better Democrats in the Senate are down to the wire. Crazy.<Br>
<p><b>Update 9</b>: Oregon back to undecided. And what's up with Alaska? Two Republican shocks seem imminent in what is otherwise a heavy Democratic night. Seems fishy. In Minnesota, Franken leads by 2,300 votes. In Georgia, it could be a recount to secure the run-off.<Br>
<p><b>Update 8: Merkley wins Oregon</b>: A little belated, but Oregon's premier political analyst has called the race for Merkley.<Br>
<p><b>Update 7: Franken takes the lead</b>: Franken now leads by 1,350 votes or so. Still, get ready for a recount.<Br>
<p><b>Update 6: Minnesota margin now 1,465 votes</b>: Get ready for a recount in Minnesota.<br>
<p><b>Update 5: Franken within less than 200 votes</b>: Huge nailbiter in Minnesota. Too bad there is no run-off.<Br>
<p><b>Update 4: Alaska in play?</b> No word on which counties have reported, but Stevens is winning in Alaska with 37% reporting. This could be the shocker of the night, after Obama winning Indiana.<Br>
<p><b>Update 3: Merkley will win</b>: While the networks haven't called it yet, Merkley is going to win. The red counties have all reported. The remaining vote is from Eugene and Portland. Game over.<Br>
<p><B>Update 2: Hagan wins North Carolina!</b>: Make that six Senate pickups for Democrats.<Br>
<p><B>Update 1: Shaeen wins New Hampshire</b>: Mark a fifth pickup down for Democrats. <br />election resultsSenate 2008Wed, 05 Nov 2008 07:02:20 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9687/A Filibuster proof Senate, by other meanshttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9675/
Going by <a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9674">Chris's senate predictions</a> we should gain 7 seats, which will bring us to 57 seats (with Bernie Sanders). If we extend hope just a tad to include Georgia and Minnesota, we will have 59, with Joe Lieberman holding the filibustery balance.
<p>How else can we make this man irrelevant?
<p>By pulling a Jim Jeffords, that's how! <br /> If the Democrats can inch their way within site of the magic number (whether the 60-seat benchmark <i>does</i> matter or not would be a discussion for another time and thread), who could the leadership hope to poach from the GOP caucus?
<p>Off the top of my head, two names come to mind; Arlen Specter and Olympia Snowe.
<p>Specter won re-election with less than 53% of the vote, and he's up again in 2010, the 3rd in a series of realigning elections. He represents a state that has gone Democratic in the last 4 (5 counting tomorrow, knock on wood) presidential elections, ejected the ever-odious Rick Santorum, has a Democratic governor, and a battle for control of the state legislature. I've always been under the impression that some in his party dislike him more than in ours. I remember having a Republican friend of mine telling me back in 04, that he'd rather Specter lose his seat, even if it meant losing control of the chamber. Regardless, I'm sure Chris, our resident Pennsylvanian, would be better apt to speak to this possibility, and/or his electoral chances in 2010 (if he choose to run, he will be 80 by then, and also has some health problems).
<p>As for Snowe, she is one of the few remaining New England Republicans left in Congress (with us hopefully knocking off Shays and Sununu this cycle). Extremely popular in Maine, her defection would be a huge coup. Aside from her involvement with the Gang of 14, I don't know too much about her positions. Looking at her <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympia_Snowe">Wikipedia article</a>, it would seem I'm not the first to suggest the possibility of the Dems wooing both Snowe and Specter.
<p>If someone has already broached this possibility here, my apologies.
<p>Otherwise, comments welcome. Especially any other suggestions for possible Republican opportunists.Senate 2008Tue, 04 Nov 2008 05:22:07 GMThellenicahttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9675/My Final Election Forecastshttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9674/
This is it. My final forecasts for 2008:<Br>
<p><b>President</b>
<br /><I>Electoral Vote: Obama 338--200 McCain
<br />National Popular Vote: Obama 53.1%--45.4% McCain</I><Br>
<br /><img src="http://www.openleft.com/upload/Obama%20vs.%20McCain%20final.GIF"><Br>
<br /><a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9654">You can see my final percentage projections here</a>. I decided to go with Obama in North Carolina even though the state was exactly tied. The reason is that most of Obama's vote is already in, while McCain still has to get his voters to the polls. That's enough of a tie-breaker for me. If a final North Carolina poll comes out showing McCain ahead by any margin at all, I reserve the right to change my forecast for the state (<b>Update</b>: ARG poll of the state shows Obama up 1% in NC. It functions as a tie-breaker. <B>Update 2: Zogby final tracking poll moves 2 points to McCain, so that breaks the tie in the other direction</b>). Oh--and the national popular vote is just a guess based on the <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php">Pollster.com national average</a>. I'm only banking my methodology on the state results.<Br>
<p><b>Senate</b>
<br /><ul><li><I>Democratic Pickups</I>: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia.
<br /><li>Run-off in Georgia where we fight for the Employee Free Choice Act
<br /><li>Extremely narrow loss in Minnesota
<br /><li>If I have some free time tomorrow, I'll spruce up the final percentages, and <a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9636">post them here.</a> More likely, I will finish them after the election, to test how well my methodology worked.</ul><b>House</b>
<br /><I>Best Guess</I>: Democratic Pickup of 24 seats, for a total of D 260-175 R in the House.
<br /><I>Guess Range</I>: 21-27
<br /><a href="http://www.openleft.com/upload/House_Forecastfinal.pdf"><b>Read the entire final forecast here</b></a><Br>
<p>Well, that was a fun year of forecasting elections. What have you got for your final numbers? <br />Presidential ForecastSenate ForecastHouse forecastPresident 2008Senate 2008House 2008election forecastsTue, 04 Nov 2008 03:30:00 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9674/Senate Forecast, 11/2: 7 Solid, 2 On The Fencehttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9636/
<b>Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats</b><Br>
<p><u>Republican Held</u>: <b>Democratic Pickups 7</b>
<br /><table border="1">
<tr>
<td><b>State</b></td>
<td><b>Type</b></td>
<td><b>Democratic</b></td>
<td><b>Republican</b></td>
<td><b>D Cash</b></td>
<td><b>Margin</b></td>
<td><b>Polls</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><u>We're Gonna Win</u></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Virginia</b></td>
<td>Open</td>
<td><a href="http://www.markwarner2008.com/">Warner</a></td>
<td>Gilmore</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=VAS2&cycle=2008">2713%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/va/08-va-sen-ge-gvw.php">D +26.3</a></td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>New Mexico</b></td>
<td>Open</td>
<td><a href="http://tomudall.com/">T. Udall</a></td>
<td>Pearce</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=NMS2&cycle=2008">542%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico%2C_2008#Polling">D +15.5</a></td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Alaska</b></td>
<td>Incumbent</td>
<td><a href="http://www.begich.com/">Begich</a></td>
<td>Stevens</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=AKS1&cycle=2008">63%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-AK-Sen-GE-SvB.php">D +12.3</a></td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Colorado</b></td>
<td>Open</td>
<td><a href="http://www.markudall.com/">M. Udall</a></td>
<td>Schaffer</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=COS2&cycle=2008">364%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-CO-Sen-GE-SvU.php">D +9.5</a></td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>New Hamp.</b></td>
<td>Freshman</td>
<td><a href="http://www.jeanneshaheen.org/">Shaheen</a></td>
<td>Sununu</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=NHS2&cycle=2008">49%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Sen-GE-SvS.php">D +8.4</a></td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Oregon</b></td>
<td>Incumbent</td>
<td><a href="http://www.jeffmerkley.com/">Merkley</a></td>
<td>Smith</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=ORS1&cycle=2008">51%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/or/08-or-sen-ge-svm.php">D +6.0</a></td>
<td>4</tD>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>North Carolina</b></td>
<td>Freshman</td>
<td><a href="http://www.kayhagan.com/">Hagan</a></td>
<td>Dole</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=NCS1&cycle=2008">51%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-NC-Sen-GE-DvH.php">D +4.5</a></td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><u>True Toss-ups</u></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Minnesota</b></td>
<td>Freshman</td>
<td><a href="http://www.alfranken.com/content/splash">Franken</a></td>
<td>Coleman</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=MNS1&cycle=2008">70%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-MN-Sen-GE-CvF.php">R +1.5</a></td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Georgia</b></td>
<td>Freshman</td>
<td><a href="http://www.martinforsenate.com/">Martin</a></td>
<td>Chambliss</td>
<td><a href="http://opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=GAS1&cycle=2008">8%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/ga/08-ga-sen-ge-cvm.php">R +3.5*</a></td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><U>Not This Time</u></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Kentucky</b></td>
<td>Incumbent</td>
<td><a href="http://www.bruce2008.com/">Lunsford</a></td>
<td>McConnell</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=KYS1&cycle=2008">22%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-KY-Sen-GE-MvL.php">R +6.3</a></td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Mississippi-B</b></td>
<td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Mississippi%2C_2008#Special_election_for_Class_I_senate_seat">Special</a></td>
<td><a href="http://musgroveforsenate.net/">Musgrove</a></td>
<td>Wicker</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2008&id=MSS2">28%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-MS-Sen-GE-WvM.php">R +9.0</a></td>
<td>2</td>
</tr></table><i>* = The Libertarian candidate in the Georgia Senate race averages 4.5% across the six polls. If no candidate reaches 50% on Tuesday, there will be a run-off on December 2nd. Right now, the polling indicates a run-off is the most likely outcome.</i><Br>
<p><b>Republican Held, Uncompetitive Republican Locks (12)</b>: Alabama (Sessions), Idaho (Open, Risch) Kansas (Roberts), Maine (Collins), Mississippi-A (Cochran), Nebraska (Open, Johanns), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), Wyoming-A (Barrasso), Wyoming-B (Enzi)<Br>
<p><b>Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (12)</b>: Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), Lautenberg (New Jersey), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)<Br>
<p>***<br>
<p>I will continue to monitor incoming Senate polls, but unless one of these seats shifts noticeably, I do not anticipate making another Senate forecast. This is tentatively my final forecast: Democrats gain seven seats.<Br>
<p>Methodology and analysis in the extended entry.<Br>
<p><b>Update (11/4):</b>: Final poll numbers added. Nothing changes, really. <br /> <b>Methodology</b>
<br />All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the last eight days of the campaign (October 27th). Campaign-funded and non-random Internet polls are not included. Every pollster only has one poll per average, and all polls are weighted equally. Campaigns in where the incumbent party leads by double digit margins are considered "locks" and not shown in detail.<Br>
<p><b>Analysis</b>
<br />Polling shows that we are going to win Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Polling, plus huge early voting numbers, shows that we are going to win North Carolina and Oregon, too. Given that we aren't going to lose any seats, that makes seven pickups. Overall, that gives Democrats 57 seats (with Sanders), plus maybe Lieberman, plus Biden as a tie-breaker. That will be enough to pass Obama's agenda.<Br>
<p>However, we do need one more pickup for the Employee Free Choice Act. Since Kentucky and Mississippi-B aren't going to happen, the two remaining options are Georgia and Minnesota. Considering the polling and the early voting, Georgia appears to be narrowly headed for a run-off. Minnesota is a real toss-up, and given the early voting (which favors Franken), polling (which narrowly favors Coleman), and high third-party support, it could easily go either way.<Br>
<p>My gut is the same as my numbers: we get the run-off in Georgia, but we lose a squeaker in Minnesota. I don't like our chances in a Georgia run-off, because there won't be the same level of organization to benefit Martin nor third-party candidates to drain support from Chambliss, but it would still be another chance. As one of <a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1809">the positive, progressive feedback loops</a>, passing the Employee Free Choice Act would change the face of American workplaces, and structurally shift the country to the left. We need to get this passed, and we will have another chance to pick up the necessary seat in 2010, but right now our chances do not appear to be favorable.Senate 2008Senate pollsSenate ForecastMon, 03 Nov 2008 02:15:00 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9636/Senate Hopes, Fears And Forecasts--Your Call!http://www.openleft.com/diary/9635/
This is a followup to yuesterday's diary, <a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9601"><b>House Hopes, Fears And Forecasts--Your Call!</b></a> &nbsp;Some folks just couldn't contain themselves and had to talk about their Senate hopes, fears and forecasts. &nbsp;But we're not keeping track of small stuff here, so anyone who did so has a chance to weigh in again--and even tweak their calls, if so inclinced.
<p>What I want to know is:
<p>(1) What's your biggest hope for
<p>(a) Electing someone to the Senate? &nbsp;And why, of course, if you still have the strength to put that into words.
<p>(b) Getting rid of someone in the Senate? &nbsp;And, of course, why.
<p>(2) What's your biggest fear of what we might not accomplish? &nbsp;
<p>(3) What's your forecast of how well we'll do? (And, don't forget to double up by voting in the poll as well.)
<p>FYI, current predictions from the House diary are:
<p><blockquote>* Gain 26-30 - 19 votes (43.18%)
<br />* Gain 21-25 - 10 votes (22.73%)
<br />* Gain 30-35 - 9 votes (20.45%)
<br />* Gain More than 35 - 4 votes (9.09%)
<br />* Gain 15-20 - 2 votes (4.55%)
<br />* Gain less Than 15 - 0 votes (0%)</blockquote> <br />Senate 2008Mon, 03 Nov 2008 01:30:00 GMTPaul Rosenberghttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9635/Senate Forecast 10/30: Minnesota Slippinghttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9534/
<b>Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats</b><Br>
<p><u>Republican Held</u>: <b>Democratic Pickups 7</b>
<br /><table border="1">
<tr>
<td><b>State</b></td>
<td><b>Type</b></td>
<td><b>Democratic</b></td>
<td><b>Republican</b></td>
<td><b>D Cash</b></td>
<td><b>Margin</b></td>
<td><b>Polls</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><u>D Pickups</u></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Virginia</b></td>
<td>Open</td>
<td><a href="http://www.markwarner2008.com/">Warner</a></td>
<td>Gilmore</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=VAS2&cycle=2008">2713%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/va/08-va-sen-ge-gvw.php">D +29.9</a></td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>New Mexico</b></td>
<td>Open</td>
<td><a href="http://tomudall.com/">T. Udall</a></td>
<td>Pearce</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=NMS2&cycle=2008">542%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico%2C_2008#Polling">D +19.0</a></td>
<td>2*</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Colorado</b></td>
<td>Open</td>
<td><a href="http://www.markudall.com/">M. Udall</a></td>
<td>Schaffer</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=COS2&cycle=2008">364%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-CO-Sen-GE-SvU.php">D +12.5</a></td>
<td>2</td>
<tr>
<td><b>Alaska</b></td>
<td>Incumbent</td>
<td><a href="http://www.begich.com/">Begich</a></td>
<td>Stevens</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=AKS1&cycle=2008">63%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-AK-Sen-GE-SvB.php">D +8.0</a></td>
<td>1**</td>
</tr>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>New Hamp.</b></td>
<td>Freshman</td>
<td><a href="http://www.jeanneshaheen.org/">Shaheen</a></td>
<td>Sununu</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=NHS2&cycle=2008">49%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Sen-GE-SvS.php">D +6.0</a></td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Oregon</b></td>
<td>Incumbent</td>
<td><a href="http://www.jeffmerkley.com/">Merkley</a></td>
<td>Smith</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=ORS1&cycle=2008">51%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/or/08-or-sen-ge-svm.php">D +2.7</a></td>
<td>3</tD>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>North Carolina</b></td>
<td>Freshman</td>
<td><a href="http://www.kayhagan.com/">Hagen</a></td>
<td>Dole</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=NCS1&cycle=2008">51%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-NC-Sen-GE-DvH.php">D +2.0</a></td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><u>R Holds</u></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Minnesota</b></td>
<td>Freshman</td>
<td><a href="http://www.alfranken.com/content/splash">Franken</a></td>
<td>Coleman</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=MNS1&cycle=2008">70%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-MN-Sen-GE-CvF.php">R +1.3</a></td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Georgia</b></td>
<td>Freshman</td>
<td><a href="http://www.martinforsenate.com/">Martin</a></td>
<td>Chambliss</td>
<td><a href="http://opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=GAS1&cycle=2008">8%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/ga/08-ga-sen-ge-cvm.php">R +3.0</a></td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Kentucky</b></td>
<td>Incumbent</td>
<td><a href="http://www.bruce2008.com/">Lunsford</a></td>
<td>McConnell</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=KYS1&cycle=2008">22%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/08-KY-Sen-GE-MvL.php">R +3.7</a></td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
</table><i>* - No recent polls from New Mexico
<br />** = Only post-conviction poll included.</i><Br>
<p><b>Republican Held, Uncompetitive Republican Locks (13)</b>: Alabama (Sessions), Idaho (Open, Risch) Kansas (Roberts), Maine (Collins), Mississippi-A (Cochran), Mississippi-B (Wicker), Nebraska (Open, Johanns), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), Wyoming-A (Barrasso), Wyoming-B (Enzi)<Br>
<p><u>Democratic Held</u>: <b>Democratic Losses, 0</b>
<br /><table border="1">
<tr>
<td><b>State</b></td>
<td><b>Type</b></td>
<td><b>Democrat</b></td>
<td><b>Republican</b></td>
<td><b>Dem Cash</b></td>
<td><b>Margin</b></td>
<td><b>Polls</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><u>Dem Lead</u></td>
<td><u>Losses: 0</u></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>New Jersey</b></td>
<td>Incumbent</td>
<td><a href="http://www.lautenbergfornj.com/">Lautenberg</a></td>
<td>Zimmer</td>
<td><a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=NJS2&cycle=2008">194%</a></td>
<td><a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/nj/08-nj-sen-ge-zvl.php">D +7.5</a></td>
<td>2</td>
</tr></table>
<br /><b>Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (11)</b>: Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)<Br>
<p>Methodology and analysis in the extended entry. <br /> <b>Methodology</b>
<br />All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the last 13 days (October 17th). The only exceptions are campaigns where two polls did not meet that criteria. Every pollster only has one poll per average. Polls from before September are not included. Campaigns in where the incumbent party leads by double digit margins are considered "locks" and not shown in detail.<Br>
<p>Starting on Thursday, the range of dates for included polls will drop by one per day. So, that means 13 days ago on Thursday, 12 days ago on Friday, 11 days ago on Saturday, etc. The final Senate projection on Election Day will target the same date range and methodology as the Presidential forecast.<Br>
<p><b>Analysis</b>
<br />Alaska becomes a safe pickup due to the Stevens conviction, but Minnesota moves into "Republican Hold" and Mississippi-B becomes "Safe Republican." With eight pickups needed in order to secure <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employee_Free_Choice_Act">The Employee Free Choice Act</a>, one of the four progressive positive feedback loops (media reform, election reform and immigration reform are the other three), is in trouble. We need to win Georgia (run-off likely), Kentucky (not likely) or Minnesota (still very doable). Of course, we also need to hold onto North Carolina and Oregon.<br>
<p>It is going to be tight. I don't want the battle over the Employee Free Choice Act to come down to the Georgia Senate run-off. Let's win Minnesota now. <a href="https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/olbd?refcode=thermometer">Al Franken is on the Better Democrats page</a>. &nbsp;Senate 2008Senate pollsSenate ForecastThu, 30 Oct 2008 19:15:00 GMTChris Bowershttp://www.openleft.com/diary/9534/