HomeArticlesIncrease in cigarette tax would reduce the cigarette consumption

Increase in cigarette tax would reduce the cigarette consumption

5.0 Introduction

The consequences of our analysis demonstrate that addition in cigarette revenue enhancement would cut down the coffin nail ingestion or discontinue smoke among lower income tobacco users and to a great extent addicted tobacco users, therefore it upheld the hypotheses four and five. However, the revenue enhancement factor does non turn out to be significantly related on younger tobacco users, female tobacco users and less educated tobacco users. Chapter 5 includes a drumhead description of descriptive and illative analyses and treatment of major findings that validate our research aim and hypotheses. Following subdivision provides the deductions of our survey toward the society. Following subdivision will discourse several restrictions that are evident during the advancement of the survey, every bit good as to supply some recommendations for future research. Then, an overall decision of our full survey is presented at the terminal of this chapter.

5.1 Summary of Statistical Analysis

The demographic profiles of respondents are analyzed when the informations are collected. Smokers are categorized by different races, gender, smoking grade, instruction and age and the information is presented in pie charts. Besides, the cardinal inclinations statistic of the variables is besides calculated in the analysis. Cross tabular matter tabular arraies are presented to demo responses of each subgroup.

Statistical method used in the illative analysis is polynomial logistic arrested development. This statistical method presented the predictability relationship between the dependant and independent variables in the signifier of uneven ratio [ i.e. Exp ( B ) ] . When the important degree is less than 0.05, the alternate hypothesis is accepted. In this research, alternate hypothesis for age, gender, and instruction degree are rejected as these factor do non impact the likeliness of the responses towards coffin nail revenue enhancement. The alternate hypothesis for smoking grade and income degree are accepted as the important degree is less than 0.05. Therefore, smoking grade and income degree are more likely to foretell a certain type of responses from the tobacco users.

Multivariate analysis is besides performed by inputting all independent variables as covariate factors in the SPSS plan. Multivariate analysis is to guarantee the relationship is non significantly affected by other independent variables.

Harmonizing to rational dependence theory in footings of the variable age, rational immature tobacco users should be more likely to discontinue smoking given that their longer life staying compared to older tobacco users and their comparatively lower income. Younger tobacco users who might develop lung malignant neoplastic disease right now would lose much more ( clip ) compared to an 80 old ages old tobacco user with lung malignant neoplastic disease. Our empirical research does non confirmed this because we had shown that younger tobacco users are non more likely to quit/cut smoke than grownup tobacco users. Past surveies by Lewit and Coate ( 1982 ) and Sylvain ( 2007 ) besides contradicted the consequence we had. The possible ground taking to this consequence might include the little figure of immature tobacco users in our sample. The alternate account is that since we perform our informations aggregation in urban countries, immature tobacco users tend to be more flush, therefore they are non affected by addition in revenue enhancement. Interestingly, Decicca, Kenkel and Mathios ( 2008 ) stated that since most smoking induction starts during young person, hence, the bing immature tobacco users who quit/cut smoking due to revenue enhancements could be higher.

The survey besides finds that gender is non a factor in finding the determination to cut/quit smoking given coffin nail revenue enhancement addition. However, rational dependence theory predicts female is more likely to cut down coffin nail ingestion due to traditionally being poorer than male. This contradiction happened because, we suspect, the income spread between the genders is fast shutting. Therefore, any revenue enhancement addition will non significantly make any decreased ingestion of coffin nails among the adult females. Our determination is in line with the assorted consequences of old literature. Chaloupka ( 1990 ) discovered that work forces are more likely to quit/cut smoking while Stehr ( 2007 ) found that adult females are more likely to quit/cut smoke.

We find that instruction has small impact on the determination of tobacco users in response to cigarette revenue enhancement addition. Harmonizing to rational dependence theory, tobacco users with less instruction incur much “ cost ” than extremely educated tobacco users for smoking because they have by and large lower income. Our findings did non back up rational dependence theory. Previous research by Madden ( 2007 ) partially supported our determination, he found that extremely educated tobacco users are less antiphonal to cigarette revenue enhancement. However, Tansel ‘s ( 1993 ) findings in Turkey ( a in-between income state ) partially supported our decision. He found a positive and important relationship between instruction and coffin nail revenue enhancement snap significance that the higher the instruction, the higher the sensitiveness towards coffin nail revenue enhancement a tobacco user will be. The ground buttocks is that extremely educated tobacco users besides tend to cut down smoking when taxed are raised, non because of the money issue, but because they are fearful of the wellness effects. They have utilized the revenue enhancement addition as the chance to travel “ cold Meleagris gallopavo ” . Therefore, when both higher instruction and lower instruction tobacco users choose to smoke less, none is more likely than the other.

Lower income tobacco users are more likely to cut cost than richer tobacco users because the “ cost ” of go oning the wont of smoke is higher. Each RM addition in cigarette monetary value will impact their quality of life, even making deficits of money for kids ‘s instruction, nutrient and other day-to-day disbursals compounded to the hereafter. This consequence conforms to old research done by Biener et Al. ( 1998 ) which says that hapless tobacco users are 3 times every bit likely to either switch to cheaper trade names of coffin nails or cut down ingestion. Townsend et Al. ( 1994 ) findings besides brings Forth similar decision.

As expected, heavy tobacco users are more likely to give no response towards coffin nails revenue enhancement addition than light tobacco users. Adjacent complementarity explains that within a certain clip frame, the more a tobacco user fume now, the more he would wish to smoke in the hereafter. Unless the hurting of higher coffin nail monetary value is more than the hurting of giving up the smoke dependence, tobacco users will be given to go on to smoke in the hereafter. Previous research done by Lee ( 2008 ) does non conform to our findings. Lee et Al. ( 2004 ) whose consequence shows that heavy tobacco users increase smoking ingestion when revenue enhancement is increased supported our consequence.

5.3 Deductions of the Study

Whether coffin nail revenue enhancement efficaciously achieves the authorities ‘s end in cut downing coffin nail ingestion is a important issue that needs to be carefully considered from clip to clip in order to better find the way of future policies. Hence, placing the consequence of revenue enhancement additions on coffin nail ingestion is an indispensable portion for modulating proper governmental policies on the baccy usage. By and large, the progressive addition in cigarette revenue enhancement rates may supply a powerful part toward the authorities ‘s revenue enhancement policy which would hike the authorities ‘s income revenue enhancement gross, every bit good as to better economic efficiency of the state. In our survey, we found that extremely addicted and high income tobacco users do non react to cigarette revenue enhancement good. They still purchase same measure of coffin nails. Therefore, authorities should invent a method of aiming coffin nail revenue enhancements towards these groups of tobacco users to maximise revenue enhancement gross. Harmonizing to Tsai et Al. ( 2003 ) , parts of excess gross which was derived from the coffin nail revenue enhancement would be earmarked to the authorities ‘s attempt for implementing baccy control plan against the baccy usage such as anti-smoking media-campaigns. Still, other part of the coffin nail revenue enhancement grosss would give into support health care for under-insured population, lung malignant neoplastic disease research and other wellness related activities.

Apart from that, our survey besides contributes to public wellness by placing that instruction does non play a important function in cut downing ingestion of coffin nail due to revenue enhancements. This implies that our instruction system is non stressing the danger and wellness jeopardy of smoke. This, nevertheless, agrees with the rational dependence theory because extremely educated people are likely to be affluent. Therefore, they do non endure every bit much because of revenue enhancement addition. In contrast, affluent people besides “ endure more ” because of wellness jobs because they have much to bask in life ( vacations, amusement, longer life etc. ) compared to low income tobacco users. Therefore, in inventing a public wellness policy, our survey implies that we should educate people on the danger of smoking piece at the same clip increasing coffin nail revenue enhancement so that in the terminal, the rich and the hapless both fume less.

During the procedure of conceptual foundation, our research has contributed extended sum of empirical grounds that have reviewed the relationships between assorted demographic and smoking grade factors and the response to cigarette revenue enhancement addition. Through our survey, we can better understand the effects of revenue enhancement on coffin nail ingestion which will ensue in different ingestion forms. For case, tobacco users may cut cost either by cut downing the figure of coffin nail they smoke or alteration to a cheaper trade name, take to discontinue smoke, or keep their original degree of ingestion. Harmonizing to the cardinal jurisprudence of economic sciences which specified that as the monetary value of a merchandise rises, the measure demanded for that merchandise would fall. However, we found that there is an exclusion to this most basic jurisprudence of economic sciences because of the nature of rational dependence. Since we viewed the coffin nails smoking as an habit-forming behavior, therefore it could be expected that increasing coffin nail revenue enhancement would hold smaller consequence than normal merchandise in cut downing people ‘s ingestion of coffin nails. Alternatively, increasing coffin nail revenue enhancements excessively high and the authorities would put on the line making a black market or the emergent of bootleg coffin nail.

5.4 Restrictions of the Study

Restriction of this survey-based research is that tobacco users may non ever do what they say they would make in the questionnaire. They may take to reply “ quit smoke ” , “ cut cost ” in the questionnaire but may move to smoke following hebdomad, following month or some other day of the months. On the other manus, they may reply “ no response ” to cigarette revenue enhancement but choose to discontinue smoking the following twenty-four hours. However, they are non needfully been stating prevarications. It is merely that future behaviour is difficult to foretell even for tobacco users themselves particularly those who are extremely addicted to coffin nails. Warner ( 1978 ) had showed that self-reported ingestion in questionnaire significantly underestimate the existent gross revenues informations taken at the national degree.

Apart from that, the little Numberss of samples of immature tobacco users age 11 and below may non be sufficient to bring forth any strong grounds for that age group. The ground for such low Numberss is that it is illegal for them to smoke in Malaysia. Besides, retail merchants are non permitted to sell coffin nails to bush leagues age 18 and below. Besides, comparably smaller Numberss of female tobacco users compared to male tobacco users may hold distorted the consequences. Female tobacco users are historically and nationally lower than male tobacco users. Therefore, each female tobacco user ‘s responses to coffin nails revenue enhancement have larger impact per individual to the terminal consequence as compared to single male tobacco user.

Wasserman, Manning, Newhouse and Winkler ( 1991 ) had observed that utilizing single degree informations may integrate ecological prejudice into the survey. There may be other variables impacting the baccy usage that are non incorporated into the determiner. Example might include, household size, societal positions of tobacco users and profession ( e.g. physicians may perchance smoke less ) . Another illustration would be the being of social civilization that disapproves the wont of smoke.

The respondent traveling through the study questionnaire can non take to reply the questionnaire in any other manner than was included in the picks of replies. The tobacco user merely can make full in their reply harmonizing to the nonsubjective replies set by the research worker beforehand and all the reply classs are based on nominal or ordinal. If the questionnaire is inquiring about inquiry such as how would you response to a RM1 addition in cigarette monetary value and the respondent want to reply that he would discontinue for 1 month and merely go on smoking if his income has increase consequently, it is non possible. These will ensue in inaccurate consequence as the research worker has already set the chooseable replies, viz. to discontinue smoke, cutting cost and take non to react.

Another restriction of the research is that it does non see smuggled coffin nails and coffin nails sold in revenue enhancement free zone. Tsai et Al. ( 2003 ) and Lee and Chen ( 2006 ) had proved in their surveies that tobacco users tend to purchased smuggled coffin nails to avoid the high cost of legal coffin nails in Taiwan. Respondent who purchase “ tax-exempted ” coffin nails from these two beginnings may non be hurt by the revenue enhancement and hence our consequence will be biased towards “ No Response ” .

Furthermore, although we know that the chief consequence of lifting monetary value of coffin nail due to revenue enhancement would cut down tobacco users ‘ coffin nail ingestion but we do non cognize whether it is cigarette revenue enhancement that has really play an of import function on the demand of coffin nail. Possibly the ground for cut downing coffin nail ingestion may be due to some issues other than revenue enhancement policy such as concern over the wellness effects of coffin nail smoke since they know that smoking will take to lung malignant neoplastic disease, bosom disease, shot, etc. Another issue that could act upon on the demand of coffin nail may be the baccy control policy, for illustration advertisement limitations or prohibition on smoking in public topographic points, every bit good as anti-smoking media runs could bring on tobacco users to quit/cut smoke every bit good. Besides that, jurisprudence policy besides plays a major consequence on coffin nail ingestion which limit smoking in public topographic point and limitations on young person under 18 old ages old to buy the baccy merchandises. Since there are a batch of other issues than revenue enhancement in impacting their smoke behavior, therefore it is recommended that future research in those issues need to be conducted to verify its existent effects.

The concluding restriction of our survey is that we seek our respondent chiefly in the Klang Valley country. Therefore, it may non truly stand for the whole population in Malaysia. We know that Klang Valley populations are urban inhabitants and the consequence may divert a small if we include tobacco users from rural countries. Urban inhabitants usually had higher instruction degree and higher income degree compared to non-urban inhabitants. However, since bulk of the tobacco users live in the metropolis and most of the revenue enhancement gross collected comes from them, it is acceptable to neglect tobacco users from rural countries.

All restrictions are acknowledged but they do non take away from the significance of happening but simply provides platforms for future research.

5.5 Recommendations for Future Research

As we use cross-sectional method in our research, we extremely recommend future research on this subject conducted in the longitudinal method. Future research workers can carry on the research on the alteration of coffin nail revenue enhancement in Malaysia in the clip period of few old ages or longer. It is similar to the manner conducted by Hamilton, Levinton, Pierre, & A ; Grimard ( 1997 ) and Hanewinkel and Isensee ( 2007 ) in their surveies. Based on our cognition and determination, Malaysia has non conducted the research on this subject by this method. By carry oning the survey in longitudinal method, the consequence will be more accurate and dependable because this method can get the better of the restriction of cross-sectional method as discussed in the first paragraph of restriction. Actually, there are even small research on the subject coffin nail revenue enhancements itself in Malaysia. More research on this subject is extremely recommended because the ingestion behaviour of Malayan tobacco users may be different from abroad ‘ tobacco users.

Many researches on the coffin nail ingestion were focused either on the consequence of coffin nail tax/price to the coffin nail ingestion such as Lee ( 2008 ) or the consequence of anti-smoking campaign/health information on the coffin nail ingestion such as Warner ( 1977 ) and Lee and Chen ( 2008 ) . Future research workers should happen ways to incorporate and analyze both the consequence of coffin nail revenue enhancement and anti-smoking runs together on the coffin nail ingestion. This is because coffin nail revenue enhancement and wellness information do impact the coffin nail ingestion at the same clip. The lone difference between them is whether monetary value or wellness information dramas in a bigger function on the alteration of coffin nail ingestion. By analyzing the consequence of coffin nail revenue enhancement and wellness information together on the coffin nail ingestion, the consequence can be more dependable and useable for authorities to implement its baccy policy efficaciously and expeditiously.

Besides that, research workers can analyze the fairness rule on the baccy policy in Malaysia. Many research workers such Gospodinov and Ian Irvine ( 2009 ) ) and Warner et Al. ( 1995 ) had discussed the issues of fairness rule in the baccy policy in their surveies. One of the statements is the revenue enhancement imposed is unjust to take down income group. Lower income group frequently will devour lower priced or smuggled coffin nails when coffin nail revenue enhancement is increased as proved by Evans and Farrelly ( 1998 ) , Farrelly, Nimsch, Hyland and Cummings ( 2004 ) , and Tsai et Al. ( 2003 ) . Often, lower priced or smuggled coffin nails contain higher pitch and nicotine substance. The consumers ‘ wellness will be more affected by smoking these types of coffin nails. Furthermore, future research can concentrate on whether revenue enhancement should be imposed based on the measure of nicotine and pitch alternatively of measure of coffin nail in Malaysia. The impacts of implementing revenue enhancement based on measure of nicotine and pitch demand to be researched and determined.

Young person is the most valuable assets for the state. Future research can concentrate on the entree of young person to cigarette or exposure to smoking environment/ wonts in Malaysia. This type of research can supply of import informations and information to our state and the universe since the younger coevals of tobacco users has increased many creases throughout the universe during the past century. More effectual baccy control plan to the young person can be implemented based on the informations and information. In add-on, future research can concentrate on what is the optimum revenue enhancement rate for coffin nail in Malaysia and its impacts.

5.6 Decision

Smoke has been a prevailing epidemic in the modern universe. It remains one of the top slayers of homo on the twenty-first century. Fortunately, excise revenue enhancements on coffin nails continue to be our last line of defence against smoking and many states including Malaysia has been increasing revenue enhancements on coffin nails for many old ages. In the beginning of our research, we had set out to reply the inquiries. We want to cognize given the socio-economic factors and dependences degree, whether it will impact the likely responses of fellow tobacco users following a important addition in coffin nails revenue enhancement.

The rules of rational dependence theory predict that lower income, younger, low instruction, female and lightly addicted tobacco users are more likely to react towards cutting down on smoking ingestion and discontinuing wholly given a revenue enhancement addition. Conducting a self-administered questionnaire study in Klang study with samples of 300 tobacco users, we have found out the undermentioned consequences. Gender, instruction and age do non impact the likely responses of fellow tobacco users. The grounds might be caused by comparatively little samples, shuting spreads of income between genders and inclination of extremely educated tobacco users to cut down smoking due to wellness grounds. However, research found that low income tobacco users are more likely to cut cost. Highly addicted tobacco users are more likely to keep same degree of ingestion. Both income and dependence factors is accurately predicted by the theory and old research.

Our research has broad deductions. They include assisting authorities devise better revenue enhancement policy, public wellness policy and smoke consciousness runs. Besides, we have besides contributed important empirical informations towards rational dependence theory. Restrictions of this research includes incongruence between tobacco users ‘ actions and tobacco users intended action and ecological prejudice. Small samples for certain age group and the handiness of bootleg coffin nails are among the restrictions. Therefore, we extremely recommend that future longitudinal research on coffin nail revenue enhancement be conducted in Malaysia. Besides, research on the differential consequence of revenue enhancement vs. anti-smoking run, equity of coffin nail revenue enhancement and entree of young person towards coffin nail can be conducted to supplement this research country.

Overall, our research has been a success. Although the adversity we have encountered during the informations aggregation procedure and informations analysis procedure is painful, it is worth it and has paid off to the squad. We hope that the consequence that we had produced is genuinely helpful to other research workers every bit good as to the society as a whole.