Oil’s limbo dance and the upside of Greece adopting the U.S. dollar

If this analyst game of limbo lasts much longer, even the great Yogi Coudoux would have a tough time squeezing under that bar. When’s somebody on Wall Street going to predict free barrels for all?

In the meantime, we’ll have to wade through an environment in which oil continues to dominate the headlines. And it’s not so bad, really. There are plenty of reasons to be miserable out there, but when it comes to the state of the economy, it could be a lot worse.

Roche says people have a tough time objectively viewing this kind of data, and instead get wrapped up in the ideology. “And this is the sort of thinking that has led to all sorts of bad predictions about QE, high inflation, the ‘fake’ stock market rally, rising interest rates, surging gold prices, etc.,” he wrote. “The truth is, maybe things aren’t so miserable after all?”

Unless something unexpected breaks, there probably won’t be too much to get miserable about today either. And if Greece would just adopt the U.S. dollar (see our call of the day), perhaps another area of concern for investors would be alleviated. Stocks are up so far.

Key market gauges

Futures on the Dow
US:YMH5
and the S&P
US:ESH5
are both up a bit this morning, following an upbeat close in Asia
ADOW, +0.25%
that was led by the Shanghai Composite
SHCOMP, +0.54%
Europe
SXXP, +0.85%
is also nudging higher, led by Greek stocks
GD, -1.53%
of all things. Gold
US:GCG5
is up slightly, while crude
US:CLH5
is creeping lower toward that $20 mark, but it’s still got a long way to go. The IEA, meanwhile, sees oil sticking at the $55 level this year.

Coupons
COUP, +1.11%
reported late Wednesday, and investors are probably wishing it didn’t. Shares of the digital coupon company are off 30% disappointing results.

The buzz

Apple
AAPL, +1.56%
is about to give Tesla
TSLA, -0.15%
a run for its money? That’s apparently what one employee is claiming. Of course, it could just mean some sort of snazzy iPhone-to-car interface. Or it could mean a driverless car. Speculation is fanned by the fact Apple’s been hiring some Tesla employees. And vice versa.

Apple is also planning to push on with plans to sell a debut bond in Swiss francs, says the WSJ.

Disney’s
DIS, +1.00%
Marvel Studios and Sony
SNE, +1.23%
have reached a deal on Spider-Man and the Twittersphere is loving it.

The chart of the day

The tightening monetary policy coming our way is stoking fears that the stock market won’t be able to handle it. That higher rates will bring higher costs, which will bring earnings pain, which will bite into stocks. But this chart from Deutsche Bank (h/t Business Insider) shows what has happened since 1983 in the four months leading up to the first hike and the six months after. There have been seven tightening cycles in total. And it’s really not all that frightening.

Deutsche Bank

The call of the day

Charles Hugh Smith of the Of Two Minds has a three-point plan for Greece. 1) Renounce all debts denominated in the euro. 2) Accept the U.S. dollar as its national currency. 3) Open up a national dialogue and reach a consensus about taxation and the role of the state. “When trust in national currencies and institutions is lost, then the black market becomes the trustworthy place to engage in trade,” he wrote. “The world’s favorite black market currency is of course the U.S. dollar. In this sense, for Greece to officially accept the U.S. dollar as its currency is simply a recognition of the natural progression from a currency that is no longer viable to one that is.” Read his entire explanation as to why there’s “compelling internal logic” as to why this should happen.

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