Stakes Profile: Santa Anita Sprint Championship

By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder

October 5, 2018

The Santa Anita Sprint Championship is a 6 furlong race for 3-year-olds and up at Santa Anita Park. First run in 1985, it’s currently a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race. The race was run over the All Weather surface from 2007 to 2010. While the Santa Anita Sprint Championship has produced its fair share of Breeders’ Cup winners, what kind of betting race is it?

Below is a snapshot of what has produced Santa Anita Sprint Championship winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet speed figures.

The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.

Note for mobile users: Charts and graphs are best viewed on bigger devices, but viewing them in landscape/horizontally will slightly improve your viewing experience.

Santa Anita Sprint Championship Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018

Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.

Outliers Saratoga Gambler (1994 – $34.70 odds) and Pt’s Grey Eagle odds (2004 – $29.80 odds) have been excluded from the graph below to allow for an overall better visualization. They are included in the averages and medians.

Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Frost Free was 2nd choice in a 7 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information.

1991-2018

Average Choice of Winner: 2.82
Average Field Size: 6.54
Average Favorite Finish Position: 2.54

To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.

For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 2015 winner Wild Dude was 13 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.

The Santa Anita Sprint Championship has been won primarily by stalkers/pressers (42.8%) since 1991. In the last ten years that trend has continued with stalker/pressers winning 60% of the time.

Position at the 1/2 mile mark…

Speed: In the lead
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader

Winners have overwhelmingly come from Del Mar since 1991. It’s been no different over the last 10 years with 80% of the winners making their prior start at Del Mar. On average Santa Anita Sprint Championship winners come in fresh, approximately two months since their last start.

Days Since Last Race 1991-2018Average Days Since Last Race: 65.71
Median Days Since Last Race: 56.5

Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018

Only 28.6% of winners won their prior start, while 82.1% ran in the money last out. In the last 10 years 30% of winners won their prior start and all but one ran in the money.

Santa Anita Sprint Championship Winners Age 1991-2018

The majority of winners have been 6-year-olds. There have been no 8-year-old winners since 1991.

Odds by Age Group 1991-2017

Age

Average
Starter Odds

Average
Winner Odds

3 year-olds

$12.10

$9.40

4 year-olds

$13.40

$3.50

5 year-olds

$10.70

$2.50

6 year-olds

$7.50

$7.60

7 year-olds

$7.40

$5.00

8 year-olds

$6.50

$0

Listed as $1 odds

Santa Anita Sprint Championship All Starters by Age 1991-2018

As is usually the case, 4-year-olds have made up the majority of starters in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship.

Santa Anita Sprint Championship Win % by Age 1991-2018

A/E Ratio by Age Group 1991-2017

Age

Average vs Expected Value Ratio (A/E)

3 year-olds

1.7

4 year-olds

.59

5 year-olds

.44

6 year-olds

3.00

7 year-olds

2.21

8 year-olds

0

Numbers over 1 outperform expected value and numbers less than 1 underperform expected value. Learn more about how A/E ratio is calculated and how it should be interpreted.

While 4- and 6-year-olds have been the most frequent winners of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship since 1991, 6-year-olds have won much more frequently relative to their number of starts. 7-year-olds have the best win rate rate relative to their number of starts at 30.7%. 3-year-olds don’t enter often but have performed well relative to their odds.

Roy H. (2017-2018) is only two-time winner in the time frame. A total of 26 individual starters have made more than one start in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship since 1991 for a total of 31 run back starts.

A run back is defined as an starter who made a prior start in the race. For example two-time winner Kona Gold first ran in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship in 1998 and finished 5th. He ran back in to finish 2nd in 1991, win 2000 and run 2nd again 2001.

Starters who have previously run in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship have not won often (16.1%) but have hit the board with more frequency (41.9%).

Santa Anita Sprint Championship Fillies and Mares 1991-2018

Fillies and mares have made only five starts in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship since 1991, but they have performed well. Track Gal won in 1995 and Kalookan Queen in 2002, both went off as third choice. A. P. Assay finished second in 1998 as second choice.

The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Santa Anita Sprint Championship winner, and includes the winning figure for the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, the line starts with most recent.

A notable majority of winners have come in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating since 1991, but over the last 10 years those coming in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating have only had a slight edge.

Winners Last Three Brisnet Speed Ratings 2008-2018

Summary

The Santa Anita Sprint Championship has generally been a formful race, especially in recent years.

The average winning odds since 1991 are 5.5-1 with a median of 3.6-1 and an average $13.10 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those numbers have dipped to average odds of 3.4-1, median odds of 3.3-1 and $8.80 to win.

The winner on average has been almost 3rd choice (2.82) since 1991 and remained roughly the same since 2010. The favorite has an average finish position of 2nd (2.54) since 1991.

The Santa Anita Sprint Championship has been won primarily by stalkers/pressers (42.8%) since 1991. In the last ten years that trend has continued with stalker/pressers winning 60% of the time.

Winners have overwhelmingly come from Del Mar since 1991 and have come in fresh with an average of 65 days since their prior start. Field size has been a notch below the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 6.54 starters since 1991.

Winners have almost equally split between 4- and 6-year-olds but 6-year-olds have won more often relative to their number of overall starts. 3-year-olds don’t enter often but have performed well relative to their odds. Fillies and mares have also not entered often but have performed well.

Starters who have previously run in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship have not won often (16.1%) but have hit the board with more frequency (41.9%).

A majority of winners came in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating from their prior race since 1991 but the last 10 years have been more evenly split between improved and regressed Speed Ratings.