Elections past | The Guardianhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/electionspast
Latest news and features from theguardian.com, the world's leading liberal voiceen-gbGuardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. 2015Sun, 02 Aug 2015 22:37:06 GMT2015-08-02T22:37:06Zen-gbGuardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. 2015The Guardianhttp://assets.guim.co.uk/images/guardian-logo-rss.c45beb1bafa34b347ac333af2e6fe23f.pnghttp://www.theguardian.com
Sophie Heawood: Labour isn’t working. It’s spamming us insteadhttp://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/jul/18/labour-party-emails-texts-post-election-sophie-heawood
<p>What with all the emails and text messages it’s been sending supporters since the 2015 election defeat, Labour is now less a political party and more a call centre</p><p>If you felt so upset about the Conservatives’ election victory that you resolved to do something about it, and joined the Labour party the very next day, you will know that the past month has been hard. I don’t mean watching <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/budget-2015-july">George Osborne make cuts in places you didn’t think there were cuts left to be made</a>, like a barber who has run out of hair and made a start on his customer’s neck. I don’t even mean having to look at David Cameron’s face of smug bunting while he talks about bringing back fox hunting, while food banks make appeals on behalf of schoolchildren who go hungry during the holidays.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/jul/18/labour-party-emails-texts-post-election-sophie-heawood">Continue reading...</a>Life and styleLabourGeneral election 2015PoliticsElections pastLabour party leadershipLabour party deputy leadershipSat, 18 Jul 2015 05:00:04 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/jul/18/labour-party-emails-texts-post-election-sophie-heawoodPhotograph: /Nishant Choksi for the GuardianIllustration: Photograph: Nishant Choksi for the GuardianPhotograph: /Nishant Choksi for the GuardianIllustration: Photograph: Nishant Choksi for the GuardianSophie Heawood2015-07-18T05:00:04ZHow looking to the past will ensure Labour’s future | Lettershttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/09/looking-to-past-will-ensure-labour-future
<p>Jonathan Freedland’s excellent article (<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2015/jun/05/moving-on-mantra-labour-past" title="">‘Moving on’: the mantra that traps politicians in the past</a>, 6 June) reminds politicians, and all of us, that while voters may usually be ungrateful and forgetful, they can also have long and selective memories, and will dredge up from the past former perceived failures and old dislikes as they turn against a political party. This certainly seems to have happened in the case of Labour at the last election when the party allowed the Conservatives and the Lib Dems unjustly to saddle them with the blame for the financial crisis. This was a charge that Labour never seriously set about rebutting, and so it proved their undoing. Politicians particularly should remember the words of TS Eliot in Burnt Norton: “Time present and time past/ Are both perhaps present in time future/ And time future contained in time past.”<br /><strong>Keith Anderson</strong><br /><em>Leeds</em></p><p>• In Labour’s breast-beating since the election, far too little weight has been given to the party’s tactical failures during the last parliament (and the Tories’ notable success in this area). Two stand out. First, the failure to challenge the constantly repeated claim that Labour overspending caused the crash and the resulting deficit. Second, the inability to develop the potentially powerful “one nation” theme that Ed Miliband introduced in his excellent 2012 conference speech. His speech in the Commons last Thursday showed that he recognises how this theme could unlock the issue of inequality to make it meaningful to a wide range of voters. As&nbsp;the leadership candidates fight (or not) over the future political direction of the party, it seems vital that a strong tactical operation is put in place from the outset – one which recognises that key themes must be pursued continuously and false charges cannot be allowed to stick.<br /><strong>Professor Ron Glatter</strong><br /><em>Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire</em></p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/09/looking-to-past-will-ensure-labour-future">Continue reading...</a>LabourElections pastPolitics pastEd MilibandFinancial crisisBusinessPoliticsUK newsTue, 09 Jun 2015 18:56:39 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/09/looking-to-past-will-ensure-labour-futurePhotograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty ImagesLabour failed to ‘develop the potentially powerful one nation theme that Ed Miliband introduced in his excellent 2012 conference speech.’ Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty ImagesLabour failed to ‘develop the potentially powerful one nation theme that Ed Miliband introduced in his excellent 2012 conference speech.’ Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty ImagesLetters2015-06-09T18:56:39ZPolls apart: the evolution of elections in the 20th century - in pictureshttp://www.theguardian.com/gnm-archive/gallery/2015/may/07/polls-apart-the-evolution-of-elections-in-the-20th-century-in-pictures
<p>With the 2015 general election under way, our new gallery revisits election scenes from the 1950s to the 1990s. These original Guardian and Observer photographs provide a snapshot of the changing political landscape and have been chosen from <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/gnm-archive/2">original picture library files</a> now housed in the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/gnm-archive">GNM Archive</a>.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/gnm-archive/gallery/2015/may/07/polls-apart-the-evolution-of-elections-in-the-20th-century-in-pictures">Continue reading...</a>GNM archivePhotographyArt and designGeneral election 2015Elections pastPolitics pastThu, 07 May 2015 06:00:06 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/gnm-archive/gallery/2015/may/07/polls-apart-the-evolution-of-elections-in-the-20th-century-in-picturesPhotograph: Sean Smith for the GuardianPhotograph: Sean Smith for the GuardianHelen Swainger and Robin Christian2015-05-07T06:00:06ZNeil Kinnock resigns as Labour leader: from the archive, 14 April 1992http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/14/neil-kinnock-resigns-labour-leader
<p>“My sorrow is that millions, particularly those who do not have the strength to defend themselves, will suffer because of the election of another Conservative government”</p><p><em> The following is the text of yesterday’s statement by Neil Kinnock:</em> </p><p> In the wake of the election defeat I am taking action which, in my judgment as leader, will serve the best interests of the Labour Party. </p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/14/neil-kinnock-resigns-labour-leader">Continue reading...</a>LabourElections pastLord McAlpinePolitics pastNewspapersNeil KinnockPoliticsTue, 14 Apr 2015 04:30:07 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/14/neil-kinnock-resigns-labour-leaderPhotograph: Sean Smith/taken from picture libraryNeil Kinnock, with his wife Glenys, giving a speech to Labour Party workers at their Walworth Road HQ after losing the 1992 general election.Photograph: Sean Smith/taken from picture libraryNeil Kinnock, with his wife Glenys, giving a speech to Labour Party workers at their Walworth Road HQ after losing the 1992 general election.Neil Kinnock2015-04-14T04:30:07ZThe Guardian’s leader line on every general election since 1918http://www.theguardian.com/politics/from-the-archive-blog/2015/apr/13/general-election-guardian-editorials-1918-2010
<p>The Guardian’s leader line on every general election since 1918 </p><p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/01/guardian-view-britain-needs-new-direction-needs-labour">2015: The Guardian view: Britain needs a new direction, Britain needs Labour </a></p><p><strong>1 May 2010</strong>: <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/apr/30/the-liberal-moment-has-come">The liberal moment has come</a></p><p>‘If the Guardian had a vote it would be cast enthusiastically for the Liberal Democrats.’</p><p>‘voters should use their heads and hearts to re-elect Labour with an increased Liberal Democrat presence.’</p><p>‘we believe that a second full term for Labour, combined with a historic boost for the Liberal Democrats, represents the best possible outcome for Britain from tomorrow’s election.’</p><p>‘Tomorrow gives the progressive movement in this country its biggest and most exciting opportunity in a generation. The responsibility of getting it right and making it work rests with all of us. There can be no better day for it than May Day, the people’s day.’</p><p>‘We would prefer, however narrowly, a majority Labour Government on Friday.’</p><p>‘...the Conservatives do not understand the problem...Now it is time to see whether the can-do spirit lives in other parts of the forest. Prime Minister Kinnock; gritty, pitted vistas to conquer; and a belief among voters, who see the chasms of the future most clearly, that they, too, can do something better, and something different.’</p><p>‘The business of the left in Britain these next five years will be to strike a balance where the interests of those deprived, submerged millions go hand in hand with the wealth creators...That is a balance addressed as directly by David Owen as by Peter Shore. However it comes, it is the next stage in the process of change and upheaval of which the alliance is a volcanic symbol...We cannot tell how it will end: but we would not wish to see it lost on Thursday at the random whim of the electoral system. We would wish to see what comes next.’</p><p>‘At the end we have only a steadily diminishing pining for “change and not much else.” This is not enough. It reflects a lack of faith in the party of burning faith. And since there is scant faith, only a gritty determination to make the best of what we have be learning and unlearning and struggling, then Mr Callaghan, a compassionate struggler, is not merely the man we deserve but also, in all probability the man we need.’</p><p>‘A strong Liberal vote is the best way: More Liberals in parliament and more influence over the governing party. It is better than alternating Tory-Labour rule.’</p><p>‘A Labour Government to clear up the mess? A Conservative Government to stand firm in the face of adversity? Or the Liberals as a fresh influence after failure by the others?’</p><p>‘[Mr Heath] leads a party that has relied too much on Labour’s unpopularity and sat back waiting for the plums of office to fall into its lap. Mr Wilson’s dynamism, if sometimes fabricated, still looks more promising.’</p><p>‘Given the chance, Mr Heath may transform his party further. He is a liberalising influence within it. But today, sound government, proper social priorities, and a well-judged response to challenging events in the world are more likely with Labour. Mr Wilson deserves his vote of confidence.’</p><p>“If the nation votes Labour tomorrow it will get a Government whose first belief will be that efficiency is what the country lacks, that Britain can do better if we try, that if we can apply intelligence to the problems of living in an overcrowded island we can all prosper together.”</p><p>‘We should like to see Labour in office and Liberals strengthened. The country needs a change of Government.’</p><p>‘We need a strong Labour party in the House - for its own sake and ours - and as many Liberals as can be got in. The simplest course for the non-Tory in this dilemma is to vote Liberal where he can, to vote Labour where there is a good, moderate man, to vote Conservative against a socialising Bevanite.’</p><p>‘For the next few years a Churchill Government is, it seems to us, the lesser evil. It is not a pleasant choice, but there is no finality about it. It is a temporary expedient. There will, we hope, soon be another, and stronger, Government of the Left.’</p><p>‘Whether the Government be Labour or Tory a Liberal party will be its economic conscience. The more good Liberals that are returned the greater influence for courage and sanity on a Government prone, as either a Labour or a Conservative Government would be, to shirk unpleasant necessities.’</p><p>‘The chances (or danger) of a clear Labour majority able to carry out a Socialist programme are slender, almost remote. But if the votes are cast wisely there is at least the chance of a Liberal-Labour majority, the most fruitful kind of Coalition in these times.’</p><p>‘...in educational reform; in the recasting of our systems of unemployment relief, and a score of other issues, trust in a Conservative Prime Minister is not enough. A big majority may suit his ease and convenience. But we do not want another four years of easy drift. The smaller the margin on which he has to work, the more acute, constructive critics there are on the Liberal and Labour benches, and the more responsive will the Government be to progressive opinion.’</p><p>‘As far as one can see, the Labour party is the only one which has come out strongly against the forcing of sterling back to pre-war parity and the deprivation of our exporting industries of the competitive advantage they are now enjoying. The same can no means be said of the Conservative party.’</p><p>‘Those who believe in [the] aims of the Liberal Party will vote for Liberal candidates, and they will not be deterred by the fact that the more Liberals are returned to the next House of Commons the less likelihood will there be of those excesses, Socialistic or reactionary, for which Mr. Baldwin and Mr. MacDonald desire to have a perfectly free hand.’</p><p>‘the new party... has no sins and no failures to its account in the work of government because it has never governed, and it has no tradition of long political rivalry to divide it from either of its chief competitors. Everybody is prepared to give it a fair field and to wish it well.’</p><p>‘For our own part we care very little whether, with a combined majority, the Liberal party takes office with Labour support or the Labour party with Liberal support’</p><p>‘[Liberalism’s] spirit is the saving spirit of all our politics, the salt of our national life. No one who realises this will doubt for a moment where his duty lies to-day.’ </p><p>‘The Labour Party...if sufficiently strong and sufficiently well led may go far to redeem the situation by giving confidence to the workers and securing for Labour an effective voice in the direction of affairs. In this it will be able to count on the unstinted support of all that is sound Liberalism. But we should delude ourselves if we did not realise that there is danger, and that this danger can only be countered by a statesmanship immeasurably superior to any of which our present rulers have given evidence.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/from-the-archive-blog/2015/apr/13/general-election-guardian-editorials-1918-2010">Continue reading...</a>General election 2015PoliticsThe GuardianUK newsElections pastMon, 13 Apr 2015 17:35:28 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/from-the-archive-blog/2015/apr/13/general-election-guardian-editorials-1918-2010Photograph: The GuardianThe Guardian, 1 May 2010. <a href="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/4/13/1428944669491/liberal-moment-001.jpg">Click to read full article</a>.Photograph: The GuardianThe Guardian, 1 May 2010. <a href="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/4/13/1428944669491/liberal-moment-001.jpg">Click to read full article</a>.Photograph: the guardianThe Guardian, 30 April 1997.Photograph: the guardianThe Guardian, 30 April 1997.Photograph: The GuardianThe Guardian, 2 May 1979.Photograph: The GuardianThe Guardian, 2 May 1979.Photograph: The GuardianNews meeting in the Guardian’s Cross Street office in Manchester, 1 August 1970.Photograph: The GuardianNews meeting in the Guardian’s Cross Street office in Manchester, 1 August 1970.Photograph: the guardianThe Guardian, 17 June 1970.Photograph: the guardianThe Guardian, 17 June 1970.Photograph: The GuardianThe Guardian, 14 October 1964.Photograph: The GuardianThe Guardian, 14 October 1964.Photograph: the guardianThe Manchester Guardian, 5 July 1945.Photograph: the guardianThe Manchester Guardian, 5 July 1945.Photograph: The GuardianThe Manchester Guardian, 28 January 1924.Photograph: The GuardianThe Manchester Guardian, 28 January 1924.Photograph: The GuardianThe Manchester Guardian, 14 December 1918.Photograph: The GuardianThe Manchester Guardian, 14 December 1918.Photograph: Felix ClayAlan Rusbridger chairs the Guardian editorial election meeting in the Scott Room at King’s Place, 23 April 2010.Photograph: Felix ClayAlan Rusbridger chairs the Guardian editorial election meeting in the Scott Room at King’s Place, 23 April 2010.Richard Nelsson2015-04-13T17:35:28ZThe Absence of War review – David Hare on message about political spinhttp://www.theguardian.com/stage/2015/feb/12/the-absence-of-war-review-david-hare-labour-political-warning
<p><strong>Crucible, Sheffield</strong><br>Time lends prescience to this dissection of Labour’s election failure – but its revival delivers a warning to all parties about authenticity in a campaign year</p><p>There is a certain bitter irony to this revival of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/30/labours-failures-worse-than-kinnock-playwright-david-hare">David Hare</a>’s 1993 play about the Labour party opening in Sheffield. It was, after all, a prematurely triumphalist, pre-election rally in this very city that was thought to be a factor in Labour’s unexpected defeat the previous year. But, 22 years after it was first seen as part of a trilogy, Hare’s play looks less like a journalistic account of Labour’s electoral failure and more like a study of a faultline in British politics.</p><p>Some may seek to detect in Hare’s play intimations of today. Hare shows us a Labour leader, George Jones, who is a thoroughly decent man who fails to get across to the public. When his Tory rival calls a snap election, George’s flaws become even more apparent. He is surrounded by an unelected clique, is at odds with his shadow chancellor, deeply suspicious of a partisan media and, like his party, is regarded as sound on the NHS but not widely trusted to rescue an ailing economy.</p><p> <span>Related: </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/stage/2015/jan/30/david-hare-labour-party-the-absence-of-war-play">David Hare – can the Labour party find its voice?</a> </p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/stage/2015/feb/12/the-absence-of-war-review-david-hare-labour-political-warning">Continue reading...</a>TheatreDavid HareLabourPolitics pastStageCultureEd MilibandElections pastPoliticsUK newsThu, 12 Feb 2015 11:04:12 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/stage/2015/feb/12/the-absence-of-war-review-david-hare-labour-political-warningPhotograph: Mark Douet/PRReece Dinsdale leads Labour to defeat in Headlong’s revival of The Absence of War by David Hare. Photograph: Mark DouetPhotograph: Mark Douet/PRReece Dinsdale leads Labour to defeat in Headlong’s revival of The Absence of War by David Hare. Photograph: Mark DouetMichael Billington2015-02-12T11:04:12ZAttack is the best form of defence: the golden rules of political campaigninghttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/11/political-campaigning-advertising-golden-rules
Come election time, the rival parties’ advertising strategies plumb new depths of dirty trickery. We trawl the archives for the most vicious, most effective campaigns<p>‘There are only ever two ad strategies in an election,” says Lord Tim Bell, Margaret Thatcher’s favourite adman. “It’s either the opposition saying, ‘Time for a change’, or the government saying, ‘Britain’s great again, don’t let the other lot muck it up.’ The rest is just details.” And he’s ostensibly right. But while the strategies stay the same, the executions can vary wildly. When the Saatchis released their infamous Labour Isn’t Working poster in 1978, an incredulous Denis Healey publically <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1222326.stm" title="">accused the Tories of selling themselves like soap powder</a>. An excited press reported on the spat, helpfully republishing images of the poster. The Saatchis had just taught Healey a golden rule of political advertising: always try to provoke the opposition into a reaction. Here are some of the others.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/11/political-campaigning-advertising-golden-rules">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsElections pastSaatchi & SaatchiPolitics pastMargaret ThatcherTony BlairMediaUK newsWed, 11 Feb 2015 19:01:07 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/11/political-campaigning-advertising-golden-rulesPhotograph: Reuters Photographer / Reuter/REUTERSWilliam Hague gets a Thatcher makeover in Labour’s 2001 poster. Photograph: Stephen Hird/ReutersPhotograph: Reuters Photographer / Reuter/REUTERSWilliam Hague gets a Thatcher makeover in Labour’s 2001 poster. Photograph: Stephen Hird/ReutersPhotograph: Steve Chatterley/Steve ChatterleyThe full Elvis ... David Cameron gets a spray-paint quiff in 2010. Photograph: Steve Chatterley / newsteam.co.ukPhotograph: Steve Chatterley/Steve ChatterleyThe full Elvis ... David Cameron gets a spray-paint quiff in 2010. Photograph: Steve Chatterley / newsteam.co.ukPhotograph: The Conservative Party Archive/Getty ImagesThe Saatchis' infamous Labour Isn't Working poster. Photograph: The Conservative Party Archive/Getty ImagesPhotograph: The Conservative Party Archive/Getty ImagesThe Saatchis' infamous Labour Isn't Working poster. Photograph: The Conservative Party Archive/Getty ImagesSam Delaney2015-02-11T19:01:07Z‘Vote British, not Bolshie’: election posters that chart a changing Britainhttp://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2015/feb/01/election-posters-changing-britain-peoples-history-museum-manchester
<p>When women got the vote, how were they wooed? Why was Harold Wilson forced to puff a pipe? A Manchester show chronicles a century of election strategy and spin</p><ul><li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2015/feb/01/britain-votes-a-century-of-electioneering-in-pictures">Britain Votes! A century of electioneering – in pictures</a></li></ul><p>In a glass case on the first floor of the <a href="http://www.phm.org.uk/">People’s History Museum</a> in Manchester, there sits a pipe that once belonged to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/1995/may/25/obituaries">Harold Wilson</a>. The Labour leader and prime minister – who won four elections and was in Downing Street twice, between 1964 and 1970, and again, from 1974 to 1976 – did not smoke it by choice. He preferred cigars. But he and his aides understood that a pipe was a signifier for authenticity, roots and a mind that would not be rushed. Every time Wilson publicly puffed away, in other words, he was indulging in the modern political game we know as spin, long before the word was ever invented.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2015/feb/01/election-posters-changing-britain-peoples-history-museum-manchester">Continue reading...</a>PostersElections pastCultureDesignArt and designPolitics pastPoliticsHistoryEducationMuseumsMuseumsExhibitionsGeneral election 2015ManchesterSun, 01 Feb 2015 18:00:08 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2015/feb/01/election-posters-changing-britain-peoples-history-museum-manchesterPhotograph: People's History MuseumAn election leaflet from Woolwich, for the UK general election of 1929. Photograph: People’s History MuseumPhotograph: People's History MuseumAn election leaflet from Woolwich, for the UK general election of 1929. Photograph: People’s History MuseumJohn Harris2015-02-01T18:00:08ZCommander Bill Boakes brightened the electoral landscape | Lettershttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/15/commander-bill-boakes-brightened-electoral-landscape
<p>Michael White’s mention of Commander Bill Boakes (<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/14/al-murray-the-pub-landlord-nigel-farage" title="">Comedy candidates</a>, 15 January) will have awakened happy memories for older Londoners of a war hero who was one of the most persistent and colourful candidates ever to have brightened the British electoral landscape. I had the privilege of lodging in his house as a student between 1959 and 1961, when he was the leader, and perhaps only member, of the brilliantly named Admiral (Association of Democratic Monarchists Independently Representing All Ladies). There is a wonderful photograph of him sporting a bowler hat, briefcase, rolled umbrella and roller skates, in the commemorative book of the Daily Mail London to Paris Race, in which he skated from Marble Arch to Westminster Pier to publicise his campaign for city-centre helicopter landing sites. They don’t make candidates like that any more.<br /><strong>Cyril Aydon</strong><br /><em>Banbury</em></p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/15/commander-bill-boakes-brightened-electoral-landscape">Continue reading...</a>Elections pastPolitics pastPoliticsThu, 15 Jan 2015 19:28:44 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/15/commander-bill-boakes-brightened-electoral-landscapeGuardian Staff2015-01-15T19:28:44ZBritish Election Study conference: Politics Live bloghttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/09/british-election-study-conference-politics-live-blog
<p>Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including the British Election Study conference</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T17:19:00.519Z">5.19pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here are some of the main points from the British Election Study conference. Events like this don’t always generate big headlines but, to anyone interesting in voting, it was fascinating.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T16:43:32.067Z">4.43pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>John Curtice </strong>wraps up with a short speech making the point that the BES will help to explain after May next year what was motivating people when they voted.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T16:41:52.071Z">4.41pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Why can a grand coalition work in Germany but not here.</em></p><p>Cooper says he finds it inconceivable that the leaders of the main parties could find a programme that they agree on.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T16:34:00.677Z">4.34pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: What are the chances of a grant coalition?</em><br /></p><p>Ghose says the Lib Dems and the Tories are distinguishing themselves from one.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T16:27:44.459Z">4.27pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Cook says there might a shift back to normality in Scotland (ie, Labour support rising.)</p><p>Cooper agrees, particularly if Labour elects Jim Murphy as its leader.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T16:26:05.943Z">4.26pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: [From my Guardian colleague, Tom Clark] Do you think the Fixed-term Parliaments Act could be repealed?</em></p><p>Cook says he thought, under the Act, the prime minister could trigger an election.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T16:18:03.673Z">4.18pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Can minority governments work?</em></p><p>Cooper says we might be about to find out.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T16:14:48.384Z">4.14pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The members of the panel are now taking questions.</p><p><em>Q: Should we have a constitutional convention?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T16:12:09.066Z">4.12pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Lord Tyler</strong> says the other people on the panel are experts. He is a mere practitioner of politics, he says.</p><p>In 1964, when he first got involved in politics, people could predict what would happen. Now we don’t, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T16:07:20.879Z">4.07pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Neil Serougi</strong> is speaking now. He is interested in how politics interacts with civil society, he says.</p><p>He says the system has promoted leadership styles that put a premium on being strong and harsh. This generates the wrong approach to issues like asylum, he says. We need a different model of civil leadership.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T16:02:36.371Z">4.02pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>It’s <strong>Katie Ghose</strong>’s turn.</p><p>She says she also thinks the current system is not fit for purpose. Voters have not turned away from the main parties overnight. But this is a very stark trend now.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T15:57:18.698Z">3.57pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Andrew Cooper</strong> is speaking now.</p><p>He agrees with Greg Cook that the electoral system was fit for purpose in the past.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T15:51:11.946Z">3.51pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>We’ve now got a panel discussion.</p><p>The members are: Greg Cook, Labour’s head of strategy; Andrew Cooper, a former director of strategy for David Cameron at Number 10; Katie Ghose, chief executive of the Electoral Reform Society; Neil Serougi, vice chair of Freedom from Torture; and Lord Tyler, a Lib Dem spokesman on constitutional reform.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T15:42:43.562Z">3.42pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Professor Jane Green</strong> from Manchester is now giving a presentation on the British Election Study’s<a href="http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data/#.VIcZMS8rWSo"> new data playground.</a></p><p>It is an online resource that allows non-specialists to access, and use, the BES’s data.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T15:25:39.834Z">3.25pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q; [From<strong> Lord Tyler</strong>, the Lib Dem peer and former MP] Why are Russell’s figures so different from Lord Ashcroft’s?</em></p><p>Russell says the Ashcroft research is valuable. He thinks the Lib Dems will hold some seats that BES data suggests they will not hold.</p><p>Most of the Lib Dem MPs concerned seem quite well entrenched. Outside Portsmouth South, the biggest swing to the Conservatives was 4.5% in Hazel Grove, which still leaves the Lib Dems with a 6-point lead. At the other end of the scale, I found swings <em>to</em> the Lib Dems in both Carshalton &amp; Wallington and Thornbury &amp; Yate, where Tom Brake and Steve Webb each saw their vote share fall by just 5 points compared to 2010, while the Tory share was down by nearly three times as much.</p><p>In the Lib Dem-held Labour targets I found the challengers comfortably ahead in Burnley, with a 13-point lead and a 10% swing, but the Lib Dems holding on by three points in Birmingham Yardley. In Wyre Forest I found the Conservatives ahead and UKIP second with 27% of the vote, evidently benefiting from circumstances in which many local people have not voted for one of the main parties since 1997.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T15:19:22.888Z">3.19pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Russell says, if you look at Lib Dem spending patterns, surprising amounts are being spent in some seats, but not the next door ones.</p><p>Some of their choices are surprising.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T15:15:31.040Z">3.15pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: Are the Lib Dems struggling more in seats they currently hold?</em></p><p>Russell says the Lib Dem vote seems to be holding up better in Conservative seats.</p><p>In 2015 <a href="https://twitter.com/LibDems">@LibDems</a> similar to film <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Zulu?src=hash">#Zulu</a>, fighting a defensive war, they are dug in <a href="https://twitter.com/philipjcowley">@philipjcowley</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BESInsights?src=hash">#BESInsights</a> <a href="http://t.co/i9r6kxDObR">pic.twitter.com/i9r6kxDObR</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T15:12:12.703Z">3.12pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Russell, Sobolewska and Cowley are now taking questions.</p><p><em>Q: [To Sobolewska] Labour has lost the support of some Indian supporters since 2010. But they don’t seem to have gone anywhere. Where have they gone?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T15:09:41.771Z">3.09pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Professor Philip Cowley</strong> from Nottingham is speaking now, on the subject of how satisfied people are with their MP.</p><p>At Westminster MPs say people do not like MPs in general, but they like their local MP, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T15:05:48.229Z">3.05pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Dr Maria Sobolewska</strong> from Manchester is now giving a presentation on whether the Tories can win the ethnic minority vote.</p><p>There were three main factors explaining why ethnic minority voters did not support the Tories in 2010, she says. They were: living in an ethnically concentrated area; lack of party campaigning; and awareness of racial prejudice.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T15:02:34.203Z">3.02pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Russell says the Lib Dems are fighting a defensive strategy. </p><p>If there were any reasons for optimism in Lib Dem HQ, it would be based on their gains from incumbency and their local record.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:54:24.401Z">2.54pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Now we’re on to another round of presentations.</p><p><strong>Professor Andrew Russell</strong> from Manchester is addressing whether the Lib Dems can avoid disaster in 2015?</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:52:36.507Z">2.52pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: [From Andrew Rawnsley] The Tories and Labour will both argue that only they can “win” the election. Are supporters of other parties receptive to this message?</em></p><p>Green says this is really interesting. If you are a typical Tory who has flirted with Ukip, will you go back to them? </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:45:06.134Z">2.45pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: [To Goodwin] Your data suggests more Labour supporters are now switching to Ukip. But Geoff Evans argued otherwise. What is happening?</em></p><p>Goodwin says Evans was talking about Ukip support before 2010. In Revolt on the Right, Goodwin says he showed that Ukip support before 2010 was fluid. Some of those leaving Labour stopped off at the Conservatives in 2010 on the way.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:40:16.513Z">2.40pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Green, Schmitt and Goodwin are now taking questions.</p><p><em>Q: [To Goodwin] Are immigration and economy that different? Isn’t immigration a proxy for economic concerns?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:36:32.993Z">2.36pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Goodwin says those Ukip supporters who intend to stay loyal to the party in 2015 are more motivated by immigration. Those who says they are likely to back another party are more motivated by the economy.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:34:01.254Z">2.34pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Matthew Goodwin</strong> from Nottingham is now speaking. And it’s another Ukip one. Goodwin is one of the co-authors of Revolt on the Right, an acclaimed study of Ukip.</p><p>Ivor Crewe’s book about the SDP said new parties go up like rocket and fall like a stick, he says. But the election data suggests this will not happen in the case of Ukip, he says.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:29:33.349Z">2.29pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Professor Hermann Schmitt</strong> from Manchester is speaking now. He is addressing the importance of Europe.</p><p>Using figures showing the “predictive power” of Europe as an issue that decides how people vote, he says Europe actually matters less for Conservative supporters than for supporters for Labour, the Lib Dems, Ukip or the Greens.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:25:27.662Z">2.25pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Professor Jane Green</strong> from Manchester is speaking now. She is also addressing the Ukip effect.</p><p>She says the Greens are doing better at picking up non-voters than Ukip.</p><p>Ukip is not picking up significantly more support from the politically disengaged. But UKIP is picking up support from the politically disillusioned ...</p><p>Ukip is picking up support from those who distrust politicians, but crucially, this support is significantly higher among those distrusting of MPs and who tend to vote in general elections. The lesson we can take away from the BES internet panel is therefore that UKIP’s support is coming from those people who are politically engaged but disillusioned, much more than from those people who are politically disengaged and disillusioned. There is also some evidence that UKIP is making small inroads among the disillusioned and engaged, but not the disillusioned and disengaged.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:21:11.073Z">2.21pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here are some tweets from the conference worth flagging up (sometimes because they flag up points I’ve missed.)</p><p>UKIP still suffering from a social desirability bias. People less likely to talk to friends about UKIP <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BESinsights?src=hash">#BESinsights</a></p><p>Great presentation by <a href="https://twitter.com/CvdEijk">@CvdEijk</a>: British voters some of the least content with the parties on offer than in most Euro countries.</p><p>Now this is good: if you are willing to name 3 party-identifying friends you are at an 80%+ likelihood to support that party <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BESinsights?src=hash">#BESinsights</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:15:08.851Z">2.15pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: [To Evans, from the Fabian Society’s <strong>Marcus Roberts</strong>] Although more Tory votes are going to Labour, we did some research saying this could impact disproportionally on Labour. Do you accept this?</em></p><p>Evans says he did not report on seat consequences because he and his colleague are still working on them.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:12:25.134Z">2.12pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: [To Fisher] Some of your research suggested Labour was losing more votes to Ukip. Evans said otherwise. Who is right?</em></p><p>Fisher says there was a move towards more support for Ukip coming from Labour in 2012.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:11:04.386Z">2.11pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Fisher says his figures suggest the SNP could be the third largest party in the UK in terms of seats.</p><p><em>Q: So some Scottish Labour seats where Labour has a lead of 15 to 20% could fall to the SNP?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:08:58.507Z">2.08pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: [To Fieldhouse] Your figures show people do not think they have friends who support Ukip. But the polls suggest they must have friends who back Ukip. Is voting Ukip seemed as unacceptable?</em></p><p>Fieldhouse accepts that there is a point here. Perhaps Ukip supporters are not being recognise.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:06:38.352Z">2.06pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: [To Fisher] Your findings are at odds with Lord Ashcroft’s research, which suggests there is a Lib Dem incumbency effect. Can you explain that?</em></p><p>Fisher says it might be partly explained by the way Ashcroft’s polling questions are phrased.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:05:05.398Z">2.05pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><em>Q: [To Eijk] Is there an age difference in the people becoming disillusioned with politics.</em></p><p>Not much, says Eijk. Older people had a stronger party identification. But they are becoming more disillusioned too.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T14:03:58.967Z">2.03pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Evans, Eijk, Fisher and Fieldhouse are now taking questions.</p><p><em>Q: [To Evans] Do you think there is little difference between the parties? Or is it just a matter of perception?</em></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T13:59:44.368Z">1.59pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Professor Ed Fieldhouse</strong> from Manchester is now speaking. His presentation is about whether it matters how your friends vote.</p><p>He says that Tory and Labour supporters are most likely to have friends supporting the parties they support.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T13:52:50.518Z">1.52pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Dr Stephen Fisher</strong> from Oxford is speaking now. He is summarising the argument he set out in a British Election Study blog that I covered earlier. (See <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/09/british-election-study-conference-politics-live-blog#block-5486bca3e4b0251e38c7f4f5">9.20am.)</a></p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T13:51:04.461Z">1.51pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>The next presentation came from <strong>Professor Cees van der Eijk</strong> from Nottingham. He argued that the election would see “strongly depressed rates of attention, involvement and participation” because voters feel there is not enough difference between the parties.</p><p>Here’s a quote from his final powerpoint.</p><p>A sizeable segment of the British public sees none of the political parties as electorally attractive, and is thus not well represented</p><p>One of the most important drivers of this lack of representation is perceived lack of differentiation between the parties, particularly between the Conservatives and Labour.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T13:44:59.805Z">1.44pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>I’m at the British Election Study conference. We’re in a basement at the Westminster conference centre, which, in reality, is an annex of the Department for Business.</p><p>We’ve just had the first presentation, from <strong>Professor Geoff Evans.</strong> In a nutshell, he argued that the rise of Ukip would damage the Tories more than Labour in 2015, because Labour lost support to Ukip some time ago.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T13:02:58.870Z">1.02pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Roger Bird tells me he has emails and texts which show he and Natasha Bolter had a relationship between 18 September and 2 November</p><p>Roger Bird 1: &quot;Natasha Bolter and I were in a consensual relationship between 18 September and 2 November ....&quot;</p><p>Roger Bird 2: &quot;... well after her admission to the list of approved candidates, with interest on both sides ....</p><p>Roger Bird 3: &quot;She was keen on me and I was keen on her. I have got emails and texts to show we had a relationship ....&quot;</p><p>Roger Bird 4: &quot;.... and I will be presenting these to the inquiry. In any relationship there are some texts of an intimate nature.&quot;</p><p>Too many young people are leaving education without knowing some of the basics about cancer and how to look out for the warning signs. Every young person should, as part of their education, have the opportunity to learn more and know where to go if they are worried. </p><p>The Teenage Cancer Trust is doing brilliant work in this area and with a bit more support from government we can make their sessions available to every school in the country.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T12:43:46.512Z">12.43pm <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Here’s a Guardian video of Ed Miliband saying last night Labour would lower the voting age to 16 by May 2016.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T10:02:46.999Z">10.02am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/all">here.</a> And all the politics stories filed yesterday, including some in today’s paper, are <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/08/all">here.</a></p><p>As for the rest of the papers, here’s<a href="http://www.politicshome.com/uk/todays_must_reads.html"> the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads,</a> and here’s<a href="http://www.conservativehome.com/frontpage/2014/12/newslinks-for-tuesday-9th-december-2014.html"> the ConservativeHome round-up of today’s politics stories.</a></p><p>Mr Cameron brings discussions [at these meetings] to a close by delivering his opinion. Occasionally, however, hints of indecision and division hang in the air. His flirtation with a demand to repatriate control over EU migrant numbers appalled Mr Osborne and Mr Hague. Mr Oliver and Mr Crosby both dispute that they were pushing for a tougher line. Instead, it seems it was Mr Cameron who insisted on leaving the option open until the last moment. </p><p>“It was really only Ed Miliband’s troubles that convinced him that perhaps he didn’t really need to do it after all,” said one observer. Another remarked that it was a “classic example of the ‘essay crisis’ prime minister”.</p><p>I want to know and understand why my Prime Minister who I have huge amounts of respect for, I genuinely do, I think has done an outstanding job, I want to know why he’s come to that conclusion. Is that the real problem, that people might be able to claim benefits? There’s a danger that you create false fear and sometimes you play to people’s prejudices.</p><p>It’s really important that we make it clear that the majority of people who come to our country come here to work these are good people.</p><p>What is emerging, though, is a growing split within the Tory party that will only deepen between now and the election. In the Commons yesterday Mr Duncan Smith announced that he was issuing new guidance for Jobcentre Plus staff to ensure that benefit claimants who are at risk of going hungry know about emergency payments. His allies said that the work and pensions secretary supported a rise in the minimum wage and spoke enthusiastically about the report. “This is looking at the deeper underlying causes of food poverty — social breakdown, addiction, problem debt — that Iain has been highlighting for years,” said one.</p><p>The Treasury, by contrast, insists that the need for food banks will be dealt with by the government’s “long-term economic plan”. “There is a tension,” admits a DWP source. “For us these are people who are outside that; they are vulnerable and may not be raised up by an overall rise in living standards because there are deeper social issues.”</p><p>Achieving Mr Osborne’s cuts will be excruciating, but so is every reimagining of the state. They might be politically incendiary too, but that is his problem. What they are not is impossible. His failure has been the <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52e9dc54-7a46-11e4-8958-00144feabdc0.html">generation of revenue</a>, not the execution of cuts.</p><p>The moral case against the remaining austerity is even shoddier than the practical one. The left cites the share of national income taken by public spending as a measure of a country’s goodness. That this even needs a rebuttal might explain why Britain is in a fiscal crisis, but here goes: there is no inherent morality to government, just as there is none to markets. They are judged by their consequences. People who believe a smaller state will bring baleful consequences could be right. But they should make their case, instead of assuming it as a premise of conversation. </p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T09:20:00.971Z">9.20am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p><strong>Stephen Fisher</strong>, an Oxford academic, is presenting a paper at the British Election Study conference this afternoon. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/09/liberal-democrats-face-bigger-wipeout-than-expected">As my colleague Rowena Mason reports,</a> he will argue that the Lib Dems may lose even more seats at the general election than people expect.</p><p>But his research, which looks at how national voting trends will impact on a constitutency by constituency basis and<a href="http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/what-the-bes-suggests-about-constituency-variation-in-party-performance-by-stephen-fisher-university-of-oxford/#.VIa6iEgrtXA"> which he has written up here, on the British Election Study website,</a> also suggests Ukip could have less impact than some people expect.</p><p>The impact of the Ukip rise on seat outcomes may be more muted than some suppose. Neither regressions models capturing the patterns above nor classic uniform change models predict Ukip to win any seats. But there are a number of constituencies where Ukip are the largest party among BES [British Election Study] respondents, which certainly signals the potential for the party to win a handful of seats. At the same time, however, nowhere does Ukip achieve the kind of large constituency vote shares in the BES that the two main parties manage where they do well. Local campaigns can change things but at the moment, the BES data suggest Ukip would struggle to get more than a dozen seats.</p><p>The other sense in which the impact of Ukip will be more muted than some suppose regards the contest between Labour and the Conservatives. Focusing on the seats where the Conservatives and Labour finished first and second (in either order) in England and Wales, there is little association between Ukip performance and the difference between the Conservative and Labour share in 2010. Despite taking more votes from the Tories than Labour overall, there is little sign that Ukip are damaging Tory chances more in the key Con-Lab or Lab-Con marginals than elsewhere.</p><p>It seems likely that Ukip will become the third largest party in votes, followed by the Liberal Democrats and then perhaps the Greens before the SNP. But of these four parties the SNP might be both smallest on votes and the largest on seats. Moreover, both the SNP and the Liberal Democrats are set to win more seats despite fewer votes than Ukip. Although Labour losses in Scotland are likely to undo some of the pro-Labour bias in the electoral system and so reduce the chances that the party will emerge largest on seats but not votes, that scenario is still possible. Finally, despite a hung parliament being the most likely outcome and a fairer reflection of the fragmented distribution of votes, the two main parties are still on course to win 90% of British seats from a combined share of just two-thirds of the vote.</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T08:58:44.498Z">8.58am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>For the record,<a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/09/conservatives-lead-1/"> here are today’s YouGov GB polling figures.</a></p><p>Conservatives: 34% (up 2)</p><p class="block-time published-time"> <time datetime="2014-12-09T08:48:51.248Z">8.48am <span class="timezone">GMT</span></time> </p><p>Today will be a bit different. I will be blogging until about 10am, but then I’ve got a meeting in HQ and so the blog will go into “readers’ edition” mode until about lunchtime, when I’ll post a summary of what’s been going on in the morning.</p><p>And this afternnoon, unless any big story breaks at Westminster, I will be blogging from the British Election Study conference in Westminster. My colleague Rowena Mason has already written about some of the research that will be unveiled, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/09/liberal-democrats-face-bigger-wipeout-than-expected">including a paper saying that the Lib Dems may be facing a greater wipeout at the general election than previously predicted</a>.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/09/british-election-study-conference-politics-live-blog">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsUK newsElections pastConservativesLabourLiberal DemocratsUK Independence party (Ukip)Politics pastTue, 09 Dec 2014 17:48:27 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/dec/09/british-election-study-conference-politics-live-blogPhotograph: Julien Behal/PAA ballot box being opened on election day. A British Election Study conference is taking place in Westminster this afternoonPhotograph: Julien Behal/PAA ballot box being opened on election day. A British Election Study conference is taking place in Westminster this afternoonAndrew Sparrow2014-12-09T17:48:27ZUna Kroll opened my eyes to real feminism | @guardianlettershttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/25/una-kroll-opened-my-eyes-to-real-feminism
<p>How delightful to see an article on <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/profile/una-kroll" title="">Una Kroll</a> (<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/nov/17/una-kroll-nun-doctor-priest-women-interview" title="">A life lived out loud</a>, G2, 18 November). As a very young woman I helped with her campaign to be elected on a women’s rights ticket in 1974, following a plea for assistance in the Guardian. It opened my eyes to real active feminism, and I was overawed to find myself in the company of Mary Stott, former editor of the Guardian women’s page, as we stuffed campaign envelopes together in Una’s modest house in the constituency. But for me the highlight of her campaign was when we marched through Sutton flying the banners of the suffragette movement while singing their song, with my one-year-old daughter in her pushchair. However, like Una, I lament a lack of passion for change among many younger women today – I hope she will inspire this next generation to take the struggle for equality forward., especially around the widening gender gap in pay.<br /><strong>Maureen Buch</strong><br /><em>Cholsey, Oxfordshire</em></p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/25/una-kroll-opened-my-eyes-to-real-feminism">Continue reading...</a>FeminismWomenWorld newsElections pastPolitics pastPoliticsLondonUK newsTue, 25 Nov 2014 06:00:05 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/25/una-kroll-opened-my-eyes-to-real-feminismPhotograph: Christopher Thomond for The Guardian./Christopher ThomondFeminist inspiration: Una Kroll at home in Bury, Greater Manchester. Photograph: Christopher Thomond for The Guardian./Christopher ThomondPhotograph: Christopher Thomond for The Guardian./Christopher ThomondFeminist inspiration: Una Kroll at home in Bury, Greater Manchester. Photograph: Christopher Thomond for The Guardian./Christopher ThomondGuardian Staff2014-11-25T06:00:05ZThe lament of a woman voter: From the archive, 15 November 1922http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/15/woman-women-vote-suffrage-1922-election
<p>A first time voter is thoroughly unimpressed by the parliamentary candidates vying for her vote </p><p>As a diversion for the politician this general election may be all very well, but from the voter’s point of view it is desperately dull. Look at the candidates. There are, of course, some brilliant exceptions, some outstanding personalities. But if you listen to the average elector discussing the situation you will find that he is bored; he does not care twopence which candidate gets in.<br /></p><p>It is hardest on the women who have worked so earnestly for the vote, and who cherished the illusion that when they got it they would put the right man in. It did not occur to them that the right man might not happen to stand for every electorate. The illusion was delightful and the present disappointment is great. Happy indeed is the suffragist who has the rare opportunity of voting for a candidate who is not only absolutely right but who is also a woman.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/15/woman-women-vote-suffrage-1922-election">Continue reading...</a>Elections pastPoliticsWomenEqualityUK newsPolitics pastSat, 15 Nov 2014 05:30:03 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/15/woman-women-vote-suffrage-1922-electionPhotograph: Image bank/Getty CreativeAn undated picture of a ballot paper.Photograph: Image bank/Getty CreativeAn undated picture of a ballot paper.Photograph: Image bankPhotograph: Image bankGuardian Staff2014-11-15T05:30:03ZUnsavoury campaign swung Smethwick in 1964 | @guardianlettershttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/23/unsavoury-campaign-smethwick-1964-election
<p>Keith Graham (<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/20/race-and-politics-in-smethwick" title="">Letters</a>, 21 October) suggests an alternative reason for Patrick Gordon Walker’s 1964 Smethwick defeat. But his theory that it was the intervention of a Liberal candidate, on a higher turnout, that swung the result is factually wrong and also at odds with the national trends in that election. The turnout was down, not up, in Smethwick, by 2% (also nationally). Obviously, third candidate reduced the percentage votes of Tory and Labour. However, across the country the Tories lost a parliamentary majority of 100, their vote down by 6%. In Smethwick their percentage vote increased by over 2%. In contrast, in neighbouring Wolverhampton, one Enoch Powell, with a Liberal also intervening, lost nearly 7% of his vote. Peter Griffiths’ unsavoury campaigning is still the best explanation of the 1964 result.<br /><strong>Dave Padley</strong><br /><em>Le Bourg, Blanot, France </em></p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/23/unsavoury-campaign-smethwick-1964-election">Continue reading...</a>Elections pastPoliticsUK newsBirminghamThu, 23 Oct 2014 18:36:47 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/23/unsavoury-campaign-smethwick-1964-electionPhotograph: Express Newspapers/Getty ImagesTory Enoch Powell also did badly in the 1964 general election. Photograph: Express Newspapers/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Express Newspapers/Getty ImagesTory Enoch Powell also did badly in the 1964 general election. Photograph: Express Newspapers/Getty ImagesGuardian Staff2014-10-23T18:36:47ZThe curious case of voter turnout in Hungaryhttp://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/23/the-curious-case-of-voter-turnout-in-hungary
<p>In few regions of the world has voter turnout fallen since the 1990s as in central and eastern Europe. With one exception – Hungary</p><p>When it comes to European politics, Hungary is somewhat of an outlier. And, not just because it’s set to impose <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2473beba-59f0-11e4-9787-00144feab7de.html">the world’s first internet tax</a> (paywall).</p><p>Earlier this month, Latvians headed to the polls. The election registered a turnout of 58.8% - the lowest since the restoration of independence.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/23/the-curious-case-of-voter-turnout-in-hungary">Continue reading...</a>Elections pastPoliticsHungaryEuropeThu, 23 Oct 2014 13:17:43 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/23/the-curious-case-of-voter-turnout-in-hungaryPhotograph: Atitla Kisbenedek/AFP/Getty ImagesHungarian prime minister Viktor Orban waves to supporters after winning the parliamentary election on 6 AprilPhotograph: Atitla Kisbenedek/AFP/Getty ImagesHungarian prime minister Viktor Orban waves to supporters after winning the parliamentary election on 6 AprilAlberto Nardelli2014-10-23T13:17:43ZWhen given the chance, countries tend to say yes to independencehttp://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/16/when-given-the-chance-countries-tend-to-say-yes-to-independence
<p>We’ve looked at about 50 independence votes since 1846, and the vote for independence has averaged 82.9%, and came out on top in 88% of the votes</p><p>History shows that when people are asked, they almost always say yes to independence.</p><p>Every election, country and place’s history is unique and different. Scotland is no exception. Yet, when given the opportunity, countries tend to vote in favour of independence, and to do so decisively. </p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/16/when-given-the-chance-countries-tend-to-say-yes-to-independence">Continue reading...</a>Elections pastPolitics pastPoliticsRussiaUkraineEuropeUK newsWorld newsTue, 16 Sep 2014 10:31:12 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/16/when-given-the-chance-countries-tend-to-say-yes-to-independencePhotograph: The GuardianWe’ve looked at about 50 independence votes since 1846, and the vote for independence has averaged 82.9%, and came out on top in 88% of the votes.Alberto Nardelli and George Arnett2014-09-16T10:31:12ZLabour's election videos don't workhttp://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/she-said/2014/may/10/labours-election-video-doesnt-work
<p>The party should be focusing on what it's going to do rather than old style, negative campaigning, writes Tess Reidy<br></p><p>Party political broadcasts are boring as hell. However, with just over a week until the 22 May local and European elections and less than a year until the general election, we’d better get used to them.</p><p>Labour’s latest videos, released this week, are an attack on Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems, and have managed to annoy both<a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100270502/the-un-credible-shrinking-man-broadcast-proof-that-labour-has-gone-insane/"> Telegraph blogger, Dan Hodges</a>, and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/08/labour-revive-politics-of-hope-shrunken-nick-clegg">ardent lefty, Owen Jones.</a> </p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/she-said/2014/may/10/labours-election-video-doesnt-work">Continue reading...</a>LabourElections pastUS elections 2008Sat, 10 May 2014 11:53:51 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/she-said/2014/may/10/labours-election-video-doesnt-workPhotograph: YouTubeA spoof of the 1957 film The Incredible Shrinking Man, Labour's political broadcast video shows Nick Clegg shrinking as he breaks more and more of his party's election promises during a cabinet meeting.Photograph: YouTubeA spoof of the 1957 film The Incredible Shrinking Man, Labour's political broadcast video shows Nick Clegg shrinking as he breaks more and more of his party's election promises during a cabinet meeting.Tess Reidy2014-05-10T11:53:51ZElection dilemmas: the liberation trap | Editorialhttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/05/election-dilemmas-liberation-gap-editorial
The different trajectories of South Africa, Algeria and India demonstrate that liberation is a god nations worship at their peril<p>National liberation ends colonial or settler rule but all too often then rests like a dead hand on the politics of independence. In many regions of what used to be the old western empires, parties that trace their descent from liberation movements enjoy a pre-eminence that is both natural and unnatural.</p><p>Natural, because gratitude and respect for those who fought and sacrificed has a long half-life, and because those who take power in the immediate aftermath of liberation have huge advantages over those who try to enter politics at a later stage. Unnatural, because a party system allowing for alternation in government struggles to emerge in these circumstances. Three very different election campaigns in recent months illustrate this problem.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/05/election-dilemmas-liberation-gap-editorial">Continue reading...</a>South AfricaAlgeriaIndiaAfricaPolitics pastElections pastPoliticsWorld newsMiddle East and North AfricaMon, 05 May 2014 21:42:01 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/05/election-dilemmas-liberation-gap-editorialEditorial2014-05-05T21:42:01ZOpen door: The readers' editor on… seeing voter apathy trends in different sets of datahttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/23/voter-apathy-different-sets-data
Coverage of young voter apathy failed to make it clear that two sets of data, from the British Election Survey and from Ipsos Mori, were used<p>Between last Christmas and New Year the Guardian ran a package of articles about the British voter's disillusionment with politics.</p><p>The <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/26/fury-mps-not-voting-poll" title="">front-page story on 27 December </a>began: &quot;Nearly half of Britons say they are angry with politics and politicians, according to a Guardian/ICM poll analysing the disconnect between British people and their democracy.&quot;</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/23/voter-apathy-different-sets-data">Continue reading...</a>Voter apathyThe GuardianNational newspapersNewspapers & magazinesNewspapersMediaElections pastPolitics pastPoliticsOpinion pollsSun, 23 Feb 2014 19:00:01 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/23/voter-apathy-different-sets-dataSelwyn Tait/CorbisDespite apparent inconsistencies in figures, polling data does suggests that voter apathy among the young has increased. Above, outside a London polling station in the 1974 general election. Photograph: Selwyn Tait/CorbisSelwyn Tait/CorbisDespite apparent inconsistencies in figures, polling data does suggests that voter apathy among the young has increased. Above, outside a London polling station in the 1974 general election. Photograph: Selwyn Tait/CorbisChris Elliott2014-02-23T19:00:01ZMr Biscuit Barrel rolls into the Bermondsey fray: from the archive, 18 February 1983http://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2014/feb/18/monster-raving-loony-party-bermondsey-byelection
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party contests its first seat, as Screaming Lord Sutch stands against Simon Hughes and Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey byelection<p>Not until yesterday did slow-witted pressmen finally tumble the true identity of the man in the red-and-white striped jacket who is <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/1999/jun/19/guardianobituaries.nigelfountain">Screaming Lord Sutch's</a> election agent in the Bermondsey byelection.</p><p>He gave his name to the returning officer as Mr Desmond Lewis, of Norwich Street, Cambridge. In fact he is Mr Tarquin Fintimlinbinwhinbimlim Bus Stop F'tang F'tang Ole Biscuit Barrel, a veteran of the Crosby byelection some 15 months ago.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2014/feb/18/monster-raving-loony-party-bermondsey-byelection">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsByelectionsPeter TatchellSimon HughesElections pastTue, 18 Feb 2014 07:00:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2014/feb/18/monster-raving-loony-party-bermondsey-byelectionRay Stevenson/REX/Ray Stevenson/REXScreaming Lord Sutch in 1983, the year he stood for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party in Bermondsey. Photograph: Ray Stevenson/REXRay Stevenson/REX/Ray Stevenson/REXScreaming Lord Sutch - June 1983
Photograph: Ray Stevenson/REXMartin Linton2014-02-18T07:00:00Z2015 general election: it's the economy, stupid! (Well, maybe not …)http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/14/2015-uk-general-election-polls-analysis
Pollsters are no longer sure the twin pillars of economic competence and consumer confidence can deliver the winner<p>To those who believe that modern electoral politics can be summed up in one catchphrase – James Carville's famous 1992 advice to Bill Clinton that &quot;It's the economy, stupid&quot; – the message from this week's Guardian/ICM poll appears stark.</p><p>The latest monthly survey of British public opinion shows that, while the UK economic recovery from recession continues to build, so Labour's longstanding lead over the Conservatives in the opinion polls is beginning to fade.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/14/2015-uk-general-election-polls-analysis">Continue reading...</a>General election 2015Opinion pollsLiberal-Conservative coalitionConservativesPoliticsVoter apathyLiberal DemocratsLabourUK Independence party (Ukip)Economic growth (GDP)BusinessEconomic policyElections pastInflationTue, 14 Jan 2014 17:33:04 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/14/2015-uk-general-election-polls-analysisGraphicThe twin planks of victory - economic competence and confidenceYui Mok/PAThe pressure is back on Ed Miliband after opinion polls say the Labour lead for the 2015 UK election is dwindling, at least in part die to good economic news. Photograph: Yui Mok/PAYui Mok/PALabour leader Ed Miliband is making a pitch for soft Tory voters. Photograph: Yui Mok/PAMartin Kettle2014-01-14T17:33:04Z