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This report presents the results of comprehensive calculations of ceiling and floor prices for naturalgas. Ceiling prices are set by the price levels at which it is more economic to switch from naturalgas to residual fuel oil in steam units and to distillate in combined cycle units. Switching to distillate is very rare, whereas switching to fuel oil is quite common, varying between winter and summer and increasing when naturalgasprices are high or oil prices low. Monthly fuel use was examined for 89 ...

6 6 Notes: On top of the usual factors impacting gasoline prices, naturalgas has had some influence recently. MTBE is an oxygenate used in most of the RFG consumed in the U.S. Generally, it follows gasoline prices and its own supply/demand balance factors. But this winter, we saw it respond strongly to naturalgasprices. MTBE is made from methanol and isobutylene, which in turn come from methane and butane. Both methane and butane come from naturalgas streams. Until this year, the price of naturalgas has been so low that it had little effect. But the surge that occurred in December and January pulled MTBE up . Keep in mind that about 11% MTBE is used in a gallon of RFG, so a 30 cent increase in MTBE is only about a 3 cent increase in the price of RFG. While we look ahead at this summer, naturalgasprices should be

4 of 26 4 of 26 Notes: Spot wellhead prices last summer averaged well over $4.00 per thousand cubic feet during a normally low-price season. During the fall, these prices stayed above $5.00 per thousand cubic feet, more than double the year-ago average price. In January, the spot wellhead price averaged a record $8.98 per thousand cubic feet. Spot prices at the wellhead have never been this high for such a prolonged period. The chief reason for these sustained high gasprices was, and still is, uneasiness about the supply situation. Concern about the adequacy of winter supplies loomed throughout most of the summer and fall as storage levels remained significantly depressed. Last December, the most severe assumptions about low storage levels became real, when the spot price

Sample records for natural gas price from the National Library of Energy Beta (NLEBeta)

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Sample records for natural gas price from the National Library of Energy Beta (NLEBeta)

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Sample records for natural gas price from the National Library of Energy Beta (NLEBeta)

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Sample records for natural gas price from the National Library of Energy Beta (NLEBeta)

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LBNL-56756 Easing the NaturalGas Crisis: Reducing NaturalGasPrices through Increased Deployment the NaturalGas Crisis: Reducing NaturalGasPrices through Increased Deployment of Renewable Energy-AC03-76SF00098. #12;#12;Easing the NaturalGas Crisis Acknowledgments The work described in this report

7 of 17 7 of 17 Notes: Despite signs that domestic naturalgas production has begun to turn around (the Texas Railroad Commission now reports year-to-date (through Sep.) gains in Texas gas production of 1.2 percent, compared to a 4.7-percent decline for the same months in 1999 versus 1998) the reality of the U.S. gas market is that supply responses have been too little, too late to prevent record-high spot prices and prospects for very high average prices this winter. We now expect to see peak monthly spot wellhead prices this winter of over $6.00 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) (December). Last month we maintained confidence that conditions would improve enough to keep the $5.10 per mcf recorded in October as the peak for this heating season. With partial data available, a monthly average value of about $5.60 per mcf looks likely for

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PricesPricesPrices U.S. and State prices for wellhead, imports, exports, citygate, and end-use sectors. Percentages of total volume delivered by sector. (monthly, annual). Residential and Commercial Prices by Local Distributors and Marketers Average price of naturalgas delivered to residential and commercial consumers by local distribution companies and marketers, and the percent sold by local distribution companies in selected states and DC (annual). Spot and Futures Prices Henry Hub naturalgas spot price and New York Mercantile Exchange futures contract prices for naturalgas based on delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana (daily, weekly, monthly, annual). NaturalGas Weekly Update Analysis of current price, supply, and storage data; and a weather snapshot.

PricesPrices 2010 Peaks, Plans and (Persnickety) Prices This presentation provides information about EIA's estimates of working gas peak storage capacity, and the development of the naturalgas storage industry. Naturalgas shale and the need for high deliverability storage are identified as key drivers in naturalgas storage capacity development. The presentation also provides estimates of planned storage facilities through 2012. Categories: Prices, Storage (Released, 10/28/2010, ppt format) NaturalGas Year-In-Review 2009 This is a special report that provides an overview of the naturalgas industry and markets in 2009 with special focus on the first complete set of supply and disposition data for 2009 from the Energy Information Administration. Topics discussed include naturalgas end-use consumption trends, offshore and onshore production, imports and exports of pipeline and liquefied naturalgas, and above-average storage inventories. Categories: Prices, Production, Consumption, Imports/Exports & Pipelines, Storage (Released, 7/9/2010, Html format)

Sample records for natural gas price from the National Library of Energy Beta (NLEBeta)

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5 5 Notes: Major regulatory reforms at the Federal level began at the end of the 1970s with the passage of the NaturalGas Policy Act, and have affected most phases of the industry and markets Over time the movement to a more competitive model led to lower prices starting around 1983, which was accentuated by the drop in world oil prices in 1986 Gas consumers in all sectors seem to have benefited, on average, from a more competitive marketplace However, several factors have come together recently that have pushed spot gasprices up sharply and which are expected to reverse the downward trend in in real gasprices for the next year or so: U.S. gas production has been relatively flat. Expected demand is high under normal weather assumptions. Gas storage levels are below normal.

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Several recent studies establish that crude oil and naturalgasprices are cointegrated, so that changes in the price of oil appear to translate into changes in the price of naturalgas. Yet at times in the past, and very ...

This paper examines naturalgaspricing at five citygate locations in the northeastern United States using daily and weekly price series for the years 1994-97. In particular, the effects of the naturalgasprice at Henry ...

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Naturalgasprices are critical to a range of regulatory decisions covering both electric and gas utilities. Naturalgasprices are often a crucial variable in electric generation capacity planning and in the benefit-cost relationship for energy-efficiency programs. High naturalgasprices can make coal generation the most economical new source, while low prices can make naturalgas generation the most economical. (author)

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anticipated future growth in imported naturalgas, reducing naturalgasprices may well enhance social welfareEasing the NaturalGas Crisis: Reducing NaturalGasPrices Through Electricity Supply on the findings of a recent study that I helped manage and conduct, a study titled "Easing the NaturalGas Crisis

6 6 Notes: Propane prices have been high this year for several reasons. Propane usually follows crude oil prices more closely than naturalgasprices. As crude oil prices rose beginning in 1999, propane has followed. In addition, some early cold weather this year put extra pressure on prices. However, more recently, the highly unusual surge in naturalgasprices affected propane supply and drove propane prices up. Propane comes from two sources of supply: refineries and naturalgas processing plants. The very high naturalgasprices made it more economic for refineries to use the propane they normally produce and sell than to buy naturalgas. The gas processing plants found it more economic to leave propane in the naturalgas streams than to extract it for sale separately.

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biomass in particular – are subject to fuel price risks ofbiomass, solar, and hydro power are often sold on a fixed-pricebiomass, solar, and hydro power, which by their nature are immune to naturalgas fuel price

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast naturalgasprices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of naturalgasprices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the naturalgasprice by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead naturalgasprice versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead naturalgasprice. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted naturalgasprice and U.S. Wellhead naturalgasprice versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead naturalgasprice. These results suggest that agencies forecasting naturalgasprices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub naturalgas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

5 5 Notes: The recent surge in spot prices at the Henry Hub are well above a typical range for 1998-1999 (in this context, defined as the average, +/- 2 standard deviations). Past price surges have been of short duration. The possibility of a downward price adjustment before the end of next winter is a source of considerable risk for storage operators who acquire gas at recent elevated prices. Storage levels in the Lower 48 States were 7.5 percent below the 5-year average (1995-1999) by mid-August (August 11), although the differential is only 6.4 percent in the East, which depends most heavily on storage to meet peak demand. Low storage levels are attributable, at least in part, to poor price incentives: high current prices combined with only small price

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