Fred LeBrun: Cuomo's big test is Tuesday

A gauntlet begins this week that will ultimately determine if Gov. Andrew Cuomo is presidential material with a possible if improbable future, or if he's New York's version of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, destined for the political septic tank.

The gauntlet ends Election Day, Nov. 6. Although determining which way it goes for Cuomo doesn't necessarily depend on whether he's re-elected. As the adage goes, you can't beat somebody with nobody, and that's where we are at the moment with any strong challenger — nowhere. So failure for the governor is more likely to be measured by the number of New Yorkers willing to pull the lever for him.

In between now and then, Cuomo will have to save a state struggling with a sizable budget deficit and a hostile Washington, or at least not sink us. And his image will have to take a repeated shellacking from a series of lengthy federal corruption trials, at least two of which will lay bare how he and his administration have governed, and done business. And regardless that the governor is not himself charged with any crimes, he will be the biggest fish to be judged, by the public. Those trials will be held in Manhattan. The tabloids will have a field day. But we get ahead of ourselves.

The governor Tuesday delivers his much anticipated annual budget message, which should bring some measure of reality or at least clarity to the murky science fiction uttered at his annual State of the State address 10 days ago. We should learn what if any version he favors for congestion pricing to ease Manhattan traffic and bring a revenue stream to the failing downstate public transportation systems, how he plans to close the budget deficit, and the likely winners and losers in terms of state funding. Maybe as a bonus, we'll find out what he really plans to do with the state income tax. For the governor, there are deep potholes in every direction no matter what choices he makes.

The State of the State was a rambling self adoration: Andy's Greatest Hits. Plus boiler plate from years past and a saber-rattling national stump speech as a finale. Like many government rulers before him, when in trouble, threaten to either sue the bastards or declare war. Cuomo alluded to both. Neither, incidentally, does much to resolve the here and now of the state budget. The simple truth is, nearly all of New York's problem are the state's doing, not Washington.

A disconnect has developed over just how big the state budget deficit actually is. Cuomo mentioned $4 billion in the State of the State, with more billions on the horizon because of Washington. But others, with access to the same numbers as the governor, put it closer to $1.5 billion to $2 billion. So why would he inflate a deficit, if he has? Well, in an election year it does give him cover to deny or temper expectations for all those with their hands out. Which then gives him an easier path to shift more money downstate to where it will politically do him the most good, to subways, Penn Station and the LIRR.

Cuomo's biggest failure in office, both to the people and politically, has been his inability to anticipate and deal effectively with crumbling downstate transportation infrastructure. He owns the MTA debacle, no matter how much he tries to lay blame elsewhere. At a critical moment he is flirting with big time unpopularity with his core base in the city and Long Island if he doesn't respond dramatically.

A week from now, jury selection will begin at the Thurgood Marshall Federal Courthouse in Manhattan, Judge Valerie Caproni presiding, in the corruption trial of longtime and close Cuomo aide and confidant Joe Percoco and three others. It's a this-for-that bribery trial, unlike a far more complicated second corruption trial with other defendants, set for June, that will focus on the governor's big money economic development schemes. For Percoco, a jury will either accept or not the prosecution's contention he took $322,000 from a pair of developers in exchange for favors using his influence and power in the Cuomo administration, his connections. The trial is expected to last four to six weeks.

What is notable before the trial even begins, however, is what Judge Caproni has ruled will be allowed. For one thing, the introduction of campaign contributions made to the governor by the developers, who are co-defendants with Percoco, and what expectations those donations raised. This opens a giant can of worms for the governor. For another, testimony showing the kind of power Percoco had in the Cuomo administration implicitly with the governor's blessing, and how he used it. Not pretty.

Which, of course, brings us to Cuomo's other biggest failure in office. Despite years of soaring rhetoric, not only has he failed to bring corruption to heel as repeatedly promised, he has become the poster child for it. Deep shades of Chris Christie and the fallout from Bridgegate. And we know how that's working out.