Does New Hampshire Always Back Its Neighbors? Remember President Ted Kennedy?

The argument that Sanders is leading primarily because he’s a neighbor disregards New Hampshire voters, and New Hampshire history.

February 5, 2016

Bernie Sanders, I-VT, speaks during a campaign stop at Exeter Town Hall, Friday, February 5, 2016, in Exeter, New Hampshire.
(AP Photo / John Minchillo)

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Concord, New Hampshire—The chattering classes seem to have determined that New Hampshire voters think primarily as Northeasterners. Granite State voters are, we are told, regional automatons programmed to back candidates who prefer maple syrup and cheer for the New England Patriots.

By this calculus, much of the explanation for why Bernie Sanders is so far ahead in New Hampshire Democratic primary polls can be traced to the fact that he is from the neighboring state of Vermont.

But is it really true that New Hampshire voters prioritize proximity over the issues that Democratic and Republican candidates are highlighting and the records of these candidates?

There is no question that, in several New Hampshire Republican primaries, New England–tied contenders have gotten a boost from their neighbors. In 2012, for instance, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won the state’s primary after narrowly losing to Rick Santorum in the first-caucus state of Iowa. Famously, in 1964, Henry Cabot Lodge Jr., a former senator from Massachusetts who was serving in Saigon as US ambassador to Vietnam, beat Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater and New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller as a write-in candidate.

New Hampshire voters are not regional automatons who vote for every New England neighbor.

But four years before Romney won New Hampshire in 2012, he lost it to Arizona Senator John McCain in the state’s 2008 Republican primary. And members of the Bush family, who trace their political roots to Connecticut and who “summer” on the Maine coast, have lost New Hampshire to Arizonan McCain in 2000 and to Californian Ronald Reagan in 1980.

New Hampshire Democrats have certainly backed some Northeasterners. In 1988, for instance, Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis topped a crowded primary field with 35 percent of the vote. And in 1992, former Massachusetts senator Paul Tsongas topped another crowded Democratic field with 33 percent of the vote. But anyone who remembers 1992 will tell you that it was Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton’s stronger-than-expected second-place finish that opened the way for a “comeback-kid” run that ultimately secured the nomination.

New Hampshire Democrats have frequently dashed the hopes of candidates from neighboring states. In 1972, Maine Senator Edmund Muskie planned to launch his national campaign—as the party’s most recent vice-presidential nominee and a front-runner in the eyes of many analysts—with a big win in New Hampshire. He didn’t get it. After some stumbles of his own, and some dirty tricks by President Richard Nixon’s henchmen, Muskie’s margin narrowed. South Dakota Senator George McGovern closed that gap sufficiently so that, while Muskie lead, McGovern won bragging rights. Muskie never recovered, eventually suspending his campaign as McGovern parlayed his stronger-than-expected New Hampshire showing into more primary wins and the nomination.

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In 1980, Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy’s liberal primary challenge to President Jimmy Carter suffered a severe setback when New Hampshire Democratic voters chose Carter—a Georgian with low poll numbers—over a Democratic Party favorite from just across their state’s southern border.

In 2004, two New Englanders competed in New Hampshire: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and Vermont Governor Howard Dean. After losing the Iowa caucuses, Dean hoped to renew his prospects in New Hampshire, but the Vermont connection was only good for 26 percent of the vote. Kerry, who benefited from the fact that Boston media reaches a lot more New Hampshire voters than Vermont media, easily prevailed.

Indeed, it can be argued that New Hampshire’s reputation as a state that backs New Englanders is based on recent patterns of voters who have moved to New Hampshire from Massachusetts, who continue to read The Boston Globe and the Boston Herald (papers that regularly endorse in New Hampshire primaries), watch Boston television stations and often (though not always) back candidates from Massachusetts.

Candidates from other New England states, like Vermont’s Dean and Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman, have not enjoyed so consistent an advantage. As former New Hampshire state Representative and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deborah “Arnie” Arnesen noted the other day: 9,000 New Hampshire residents commute to Vermont while 84,000 New Hampshire residents commute to Massachusetts. “Sorry,” says Arnesen, “Vermont’s influence on New Hampshire politics is nonexistent.”

If the polls are to be believed, Bernie Sanders could be the first Vermonter to win a New Hampshire Democratic primary in modern times. But if Hillary Clinton, who won the state in a 2008 upset over Illinois Senator Barack Obama, were to engineer another upset this coming Tuesday, then it might be seen as a case of one northeastern Democrat beating another.

Sanders, a Brooklyn-born transplant to Vermont, began his tenure in elective office as the mayor of Burlington. The senator still resides in that city, which is just across Lake Champlain from New York State. (As a candidate for positions in Vermont, Sanders has appeared often on upstate New York media outlets that reach the Green Mountain State.)

Clinton, who has a long history of campaigning in New Hampshire (for presidential candidate Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, for herself in 2008, and for other Democrats since then) is a former senator from New York state. She maintains a residence in Chappaqua, a community north of New York City.

Burlington is roughly 150 miles from the New Hampshire state capital city of Concord.

Yeah, a lot of that disregard for voters going around this weekend. Albright and Steinem stepped in it big time and even though I have LOTS of female friends who are solidly in Bernie's camp, the Hillary supporters are refusing to even consider any logical or rational argument challenging their shero.

To them, all criticisms of Hillary (as far as arguments they've made this weekend anyway) have solely been a result of the GOP wanting to weaken her for the general election. That's just sad.

But it fits with emotional defense mechanisms like denial. It appears many of them are unable to cope with the fact that she's not the right candidate for our time.

Btw, a youtube video of a Carl Bernstein interview with CNN tells us that the Obama administration is freaking out because Hillary's imploding because of the Wall Street speech debacle.

(3)(0)

Ron Bernhardtsays:

February 6, 2016 at 7:44 am

Thanks again John for some timely insight about yet another point that may otherwise be be mistakenly thought to be true. The media gurus(profiteers) have been downplaying Bernie's apparent lead as just that, trying to subtly convince all of us that Queen Hillary is our only serious choice. You're correct about those same reporters daring to imagine that a frustrated electorate could possibly support a candidate that feels their pain and wants to do his part to make some changes in their well being possible. I look forward to reading your articles every day. That was a needed and much appreciated History lesson for me.