Update: Nail-biter snowstorm remains close call

By
Jason Samenow

Snow total forecast lowered

Revised snow accumulation map for 12/26.

9:10 a.m. update: Last night, based on the model data, we indicated we thought totals would be near the lower end of the ranges we had forecast west of the Bay. Based on this morning's radar and model data, we've decided to lower the accumulation total forecast. I think it's likely we'll still see snow around D.C., inside the beltway, and to the east this afternoon as the coastal low develops and heads north, but my confidence diminishes as you head west of the beltway. This remains a wait and see situation. If the storm is able to deepen quickly enough, it might be able to push the precipitation further west so I would keep a very close on eye on radar and satellite into this afternoon. The time period where conditions look to be the worst is from about noon through 7 p.m.

8:20 a.m. update: We're mulling lowering accumulation totals from D.C. and to the west and I even have a new map worked up, but we want to look at a little more model data before making this official. Just as I was hitting the button to post the new map, the radar is hinting that the storm motion is shifting a bit more toward the north and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says the low is developing on the west side of model guidance. More in a bit.

7 a.m. update: True to form, this difficult to predict storm is closing in on the metro region and the fine line between where there will be appreciable snow and very little snow remains difficult to pin down. Regional radar shows moderate to heavy snow blossoming over central and eastern North Carolina and spreading northeast toward southern Maryland. Lighter snow is starting to spread into some of our southern suburbs with light snow or flurries reach St. Mary's county in Md. and Stafford county in Va.

This activity will move north and northeast today but it looks like there's going to be a a very sharp western cutoff. Radar and model guidance suggest the District and suburbs to the west will be on the dividing line between getting accumulating snow and getting fringed with just light snow or flurries. As you head west of Fairfax and Montgomery county, odds of accumulating snow seem to be low. East of the District, the chances of accumulating snow increase quickly especially as you head toward counties adjacent to the Bay where totals have a good chance to be substantial.

Snow should become more widespread across the metro region between 9 and 11 a.m., but watch for the sharp dividing line between snow and no snow. While the storm may throw more precipitation further west as it moves north this afternoon and evening, where it gets going this morning will be a pretty good indication of who is likely to get a meaningful snowfall and who gets just a glancing blow.

Just woke up on the border of DC and MD in Chevy Chase, DC. Nothing yet. I'm driving my brother to BWI to catch a flight he rebooked from this afternoon for early this morning. Any other day I would wish for snow, but with my family traveling today and tomorrow, I'm hoping for a non-event!

Told 5 year old son that we may have some snow today. Just woke to him yelling to call the police...said someone stole it! I told him Boston and New York did it. (we have friends and family in both)
He remembers last year and is thinking every snow fall will look like that. We have two kid weather stations and a cube with measuring tape (to collect the snow). We are ready! After last years snow, this summers thunderstorm micro burst (Alexandria) we have the beginnings of a 5 yr old weather junkie!
Thanks for all the good work CWG!!

Has anyone else noticed that ch. 9 meteorologist Devon Lucie is doing weather updates "from the abc7 weather center" on WTOP this morning? Did move to ch. 7? Geez, seven is taking everyone - - Bob, Devon, and I heard a rumor that Doreen Gentzler might be next to make the jump.

This is typical. DC doesn't get to be a participant in all the real action. We get to watch everyone else in the Megalopolis get high snow totals, basically get hammered, while we get nada. This bums me out...

It's nowcasting time and the radar returns don't look promising. The east-west cutoff has already been established. Even if it manages to work its way back west a bit, we are talking little to nothing in the immediate DC metro.

There is the barest white dusting on some of the thickest parts of the ice on the creek, and looks like some maybe on the edges of the sandy beach across the way. Nothing in the air yet.

The place I'm living at in Crownsville is my brother's house, but by myself -- sort of house-sitting for a month or two. So I just got an e-mail from him suggesting that I should take a change of clothes with me to work, and call a neighbor before trying to drive home -- the neighborhood won't be plowed for a couple of days.

I know all you snow lovers don't want to here this...but here in Williamsburg we are getting pounded! Got about 7" so far and well on our way to a foot judging by the radar. The heavier bands are actually to our south so it looks like Newport News/Hampton will get more than we are. WOW...we so don't have the infrastructure to deal with a dump like this...should be an interesting Monday to say the least. Good luck to all and be careful out there!

Re. the 'Skins:
Latest model guidance indicates they have the potential of developing into a professional football team, but the team is out in left field and it's too early to tell if they will track toward the end zone and be a hit, or simply go OTS. We will have to wait for the next round of model runs and see how the ensemble mean looks.

@motherrunner! Us too! Only my exclamation was more "DUDE, where's my snow?!?" My 9/10 year olds are sitting in front of the TV bumming. Here's hoping we hit the feasibility level for sledding. . . .it's looking like an unfortunate bust.

The most unfortunate thing with the flip flopping models was the utter waste of resources pre treating roads with salt and sand and overtime on the holiday for road crews on standby. I thinks the modelers will have to try and figure out how, with all the advances, such complete busts can occur.

Not my logic at all. Just the truth for this event. Tight snow gradient as evidenced on radar between here and there. And historically speaking, we and the Eastern Shore don't usually share 6+ inch snowfall events. Either we get it and they get only rain/mix, or they get it and we get nada. (See today)

Well this is frustrating, I'm happy to see no snow, but we changed our family plans around based on the forecasts here and now it looks to be all clear. Must be all that eggnog the bloggers were joking about last night.

I haven't checked his tweetage in awhile. He went radio silent on there for about 48 hours lol.

I tell you though no matter what, it is neat to watch the nexrad returns and see the battle between precip tyring to come north...and the dry air trying to hold the line. Hopefully the deep nature of the sfc low will increase forcing and lift as it approaches DC's latitude. That's gotta be where our 2" to 4" comes from today.

Do like the trend as well to the south of the backside snow blossoming in SC. Right on the heels of the SW to NE fetch of precip.

"8:20 a.m. update: We're mulling lowering accumulation totals from D.C. and to the west and I even have a new map worked up, but we want to look at a little more model data before making this official. Just as I was hitting the button to post the new map, the radar is hinting that the storm motion is shifting a bit more toward the north and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says the low is developing on the west side of model guidance. More in a bit."

I wonder that means more snow, since the low is developing on the west side of the model guidance, and now the precip is moving northward.... I'm wondering instead of the 3-6 Inches or 2-4 inches, I wonder if the number will go up or down... Can't wait for the next update

CWG is my official new favorite weather source. I'm sick of waiting around for Bob, Doug and Topper. CWG is here 24/7/365! Day and night, through rain, snow, hail, sleet, heat, thunder, earthquakes, you name it! I can't tell you how much your hard work is appreciated by all of us. The fact that you guys were updating us at all hours of the night ON CHRISTMAS is amazing! Don't they ever give you a day off? You deserve one! I'll be checking this blog first from now on!

Has anyone else noticed that ch. 9 meteorologist Devon Lucie is doing weather updates "from the abc7 weather center" on WTOP this morning? Did he move to ch. 7? Geez, seven is taking everyone - - Bob, Devon, and I heard a rumor that Doreen Gentzler might be next to make the jump.

E. A fun day of playing in the snow :)
- Nothing beats this! :)
*************************************
Then,

A. It's a Wonderful Life
- This movie comes to mind every time I hear the song, Hark the Herald Angels Sing. Also there's Alfalfa and Bert and Ernie and the Charleston over the swimming pool. One of my favorite films!

B. A Christmas Story
- Multiple viewings and it never gets old. Kid who gets his tongue stuck to the pole...Good times.

D. National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation -
The squirrel...nuff said.

C. Miracle on 34th Street
- Believe it or not, me, a Christmas connoisseur, has never seen this film in its entirety.

Forecasters are idiots. USAT is calling this a "monster storm". I live in northern MoCo and there's not a flake in sight. They'll get their forecast right when its all on the ground and they can measure it.

man, what a tricky Forecast! For those asking, the low developing west would help dc's chances for snow. But even then, there are so many variables at play that we are still at best in the last accumulation totals Jason posted. I'm just happy to be in williamsburg where the forecast was much easier and consistent. This could be capitalweathers tricky forecast/storm Ever!!

fwiw, SE Expressway around Quincy, Mass, few miles SE of downtown Boston already looks terrible, but the 128/Mass Pike interchange, about 12 miles west, looks much better with very little snow on the roadway

All I had was one dream--that it would snow in Carolina for Christmas. I wanted to see the Christmas lights against the snow just one time. But since it hadn't snowed since Truman was president I had no such hope and did not put up Christmas lights outside this year and I get up today the day after Christmas and its about 2 feet of snow so far and still snowing and no Christmas lights up outside. Oh well guess I will have to enjoy the neighbors lights instead.

Well for once going south did the trick...spending the holiday here in Raleigh where we have six heavy inches of snow and the electricity is flickering...so beautiful and the dogs love it! I don't think I'll be making it back north for work in DC tomorrow.

So you mean to tell me that I cancelled the rest of my trip, came back and flew on Christmas, airline lost my luggage that had gifts in it, ALL FOR A POSSIBLE 1 INCH OF SNOW? You have got to be kidding me. Biggest bust that I can remember from the past 7 years. Way to go.

Well, good to see WTOP is following the CWG when they do their lead off news. They just called for "3-6 inches in areas west of 95" and "4-8 East of 95." They then followed it up with live phone interviews with road crews, etc. Way to churn up that hype machine to get everyone in a frenzy when its clear that this will be a dusting! Incredible.

No snow. A pity :( One frustrating thing about DC is it seems to snow everywhere other than for us. Philadelphia/New York get hit and we always get left out the fun. Is there a geographical reason for that? There must be. A foot of snow at the likes of Salisbury, or SOUTH (!!) of us while we get basically nothing is just wrong. (Yes I know we got spoiled last year. Probably that was all our snow quotient for the next couple of years).

This is going to be interesting! We are right under the cutoff for snow. Look at the SREF precipitation probability maps for instance. Justing Berk has Howard County in the 4" - 8" range, while here we are looking at 1-3". Great analysis guys, forecasting anything near cutoffs (whether it be snowfall, interest rates, or whatever) is very difficult.

As someone who grew up in Milwaukee, about 200 miles north of where Jean Shepherd (author of The X-mas Story) did in the '50's, my fave is obviously "The Christmas Story." Love the Leg Lamp. I read that some guy bought the "Christmas Story" franchise, as well as the actual house. Has a roaring online business for the Leg Lamp as well as other memorabilia.

Being from WI I am used to snow and love to send snow pictures of DC to my WI relatives, who usually just sneer. But even they were impressed by the 4 feet of snow on my 30 foot long driveway during Snowmaggedon. Not to mention the 20 foot high snow banks left on Rte. 15 after VDOT came with their monster snow plow. (No kidding, its blades are at least 15 feet high. It's like something out of Star Wars.)

Looks like it's going to miss Point of Rocks entirely. I knew buying that snowblower would mean it would never snow again out here.

Well, my brother -- who switched his flight out of BWI from noon to 9 AM this morning to be sure he can get to work tonight -- reports from BWI that his flight was delayed two hours, and all flights after 12:15 have been cancelled. Have yet to see a flake in Chevy Chase.

@BoaterVA
I think it's safe to give up on winter 2010-2011. With la niña and warmer weather predicted for the remainder of the winter, the likelihood of us getting a biggie is very low. But you can always hope!

Yes, Bob, La Niña definitely keeps our chances low to see repeats of last year. The unusually negative strong North Atlantic Oscillation this winter seems to be giving us more cold air and more storm chances than in a typical La Niña. But my guess is that we'll get about 1 of every 4 storm threats this winter (last year, we had a super-high hit rate).

Here's a new model I just found: two warm fronts are bumping up against a low-pressure zone, to the south of two high-altitude masses that are completely unpredictable. Oh, I'm sorry, that's not a weather model. It's a Playboy model.

well, no matter what happens w/this storm, forecasters can honestly say they told us so. over the past week i've heard everything from 0-18"... so as long as we get from 0" to 18" mets can say they predicted this exactly right...

looking at radar, it really doesn't seem that the movement of the precip gives anyone N & W of a Stafford, Charles, SE Prince Georges, Anne Arundel line anything more that flurries at this point. Am I seeing this wrong?

CWG or anyone else who knows the weather and would like to help me out-
i live in bethesda, md (montgomery county) where it has not started snowing yet. i know the forecast map predicts i will be getting 1 to 3 inches but when i look at the radar it doesn't even look like its gonna hit. i have been tracking this storm with you guys and was really excited to go sledding with my friends today and was wondering if that was even a possibility anymore? thanks i love your website! best weather forecasters ever!!

TGT -- brother is flying Southwest, and likely only knows about Southwest flights. I will say that I have NEVER seen a line like that at that terminal in my life -- and at 7:30 AM for a 9:10 AM flight -- and I have been flying Southwest out of BWI since it started. Hopefully the airlines can all recover quickly if we do get major snow. Besides, my dad has a flight to catch out of DCA tomorrow so I can get back to work. I NEED him to make that flight! :)

Everyone who changed their travel plans assuming we would get pounded instead of a miss like we usually get, and the airlines pre-emptively cancelling flights, and the governments actually planning ahead and properly pre-treating the roads, all jinxed this storm.

If we had gone merrily on our way assuming a miss, we would be getting another blizzard. Just remember this next time you start planning for an overload of snow.

It sounds as if the NAM, which many were thinking was the outlier over the last day or so, won't be that far off once the storm is over. It would be interesting to get a postmortem on the performance of the various models from you guys once this storm is over.

@4seams...agreed.
Big thank you to all of CWG for the work they've been doing. I'm sure it has been frustrating.
Still amazed though that a map NWS made only 4 hours ago shows 4-5" of snow for me here, when it looks like we may now only get flurries.

The worst of the storm for MD won't be until later this afternoon. The low is just blowing up off the NC coast. All the talk of a miss is definitely pre-mature. Is this slower than forecasted...yes. Could we still get 6+ inches of snow even as far was as Federick. Yes. Let's just see how close to the coast this starts to track now, what direction the winds start coming in from, and whether there is mixing occurs in Ocean City. Throw the stupid models that have caused all this back and forth out the window at this point. It's now watch and see. I don't envy local forecasters in this area...the models just seem to have such a hard time with MD weather in the winter.

I'm very upset now, there is no doubt about that. But I could get over the fact that it's not going to snow if it weren't for meteorologists being so obstinate in the face of obvious truth.

Look at the radar. You can see the core of the low is still moving northeast. The precip is moving northeast. It is NOT going to snow anywhere in the metro area much less THREE inches!

Everyone had done such a great job forecasting this thing up until this point. CWG and all the mets kept their wits about them and when the models showed something, the reports were objective. But now, in the face of an obvious miss, the mets still stand by ridiculous forecasts that have no chance of holding true.

Just back from an hour and a half run from Arlington thru Rock Creek Park and Georgetown trails. Not a flake in the sky until I hit Key Bridge on the way back. Even then just a few random flakes that don't appear to be reaching the ground. Disappointed.

Good news! I went to bed last night in a horrible mood, thinking of what a nuisance it would be to clean my steps and walk tonight in howling winds, and arrive at work tomorrow wet and half-frozen because I am a height-challenged female who believes anyone who doesn't fully clean their car of snow ought to be shot on sight by police. The snow goddess has smiled upon me, it seems. Sorry about all of you who have liberal leave and strong backs. Better luck next time.

Of course, no one knows how this ends yet. But this is exactly the kind of storm where NAM has an opportunity to be superior to other models. Because it has a higher resolution, it should theoretically have a better chance at resolving tight gradient (sharp cutoff) in precipiation amounts, as we are likely to see today. -Dan, CWG

nothing on the ground at the western Bay Bridge Entrance by Annapolis, but a decent looking coating just the other side of the bridge at Stevensville, MD, and it looks like a major blizzard at Wye Mills, MD, which is just 20 miles from Annapolis

Looking at the NE regional radar loop, the back side of this low is starting to tighten up. It may be that the only chance of any snow at all west of DC will come from rapid low development in the next few hours. Southern VA shows precip tightening and drawing east fairly rapidly.

It has been snowing here in Eastern Brandywine, MD, which is in Southeast Prince George's County MD near the Charles County line since about 9 AM. We are very close to the Patuxent River.

It's not a really heavy snow, but it is consistent and it is sticking to the ground and the roads a little. I would say we are pushing about an inch at this point, but as I look out the window it looks like a steady and moderate snow and unless something changes, we should get several inches.

Every now and then we folks South and East get the good stuff. We were going to have family drive down from DC to visit us (they report now snow at this time in DC and Silver Spring) but we have canceled because it looks like a genuine weather event out here and I did not want my family members, who range in age from 75 to 11, to get into a driving situation they might regret. Roads here in rural Southern Prince George's County, and especially our rural road, are not high on the snow plow/treatment list!

Although I am disappointed the family does not get to come out here, we did visit them in DC yesterday.

And I am a snow lover, so I have been following these roller-coaster ride predictions closely. At this point it looks pretty clear that we are going to get measurable snow, but we will probably be able to get out and drive to Harrisburg area tomorrow to visit another branch of the family. So for us: a pretty storm, with some disruption of plans, but no blizzard. I am satisfied to get something!

Thanks Capital Weather Gang.
I echo the praise of the others commenting. You all rock!

On the bright side, well maybe, it will be good not having to use the snow boots for three days straight and also not having to worry about maneuvering around ice patches and such...of course as soon as I type this the conditions will change yet once again.

I have to admit though, it's nice having you all to share these thoughts with! Thanks CWG!

Jason, I've seen a couple of posts about the whereabouts of Devon Lucie. Here is a post that I saw on this former WUSA meteorologist newscaster:

Devon Lucie Leaves 9 - 12/12 - DCRTV hears that freelance weather forecaster Devon
Lucie is gone from Channel 9/WUSA, now that Anny Hong has joined the station's weather team (as DCRTV reported on 12/1). Hong will do weekend weather reports and weekday news reports for the Gannett CBS affiliate. When Lucie came to WUSA earlier this year, we're told that he was just a temporary fill-in for 9's weather staff, including Howard Bernstein, who was sidelined for several weeks after having back surgery.....

Jason, I've seen a couple of posts about the whereabouts of Devon Lucie. Here is a post that I saw on this former WUSA meteorologist newscaster:

Devon Lucie Leaves 9 - 12/12 - DCRTV hears that freelance weather forecaster Devon
Lucie is gone from Channel 9/WUSA, now that Anny Hong has joined the station's weather team (as DCRTV reported on 12/1). Hong will do weekend weather reports and weekday news reports for the Gannett CBS affiliate. When Lucie came to WUSA earlier this year, we're told that he was just a temporary fill-in for 9's weather staff, including Howard Bernstein, who was sidelined for several weeks after having back surgery.....

I don't know what is considered "metro area" because down in southern Calvert county we have been getting snow since 9:00 am. It's blowing and coming down pretty good. I bet St. Marys and Charles is also getting hammered. Side roads are starting to get covered!

Weather forecasters are the *only* people in this world who can screw up their jobs multiple times a day and still collect a paycheck. Loads of snow today boys? LOL I feel like the Magic Eightball would give me the same accuracy as to whether it'll snow / rain / hail.

Dad944, It's only snowing very lightly in the northern half of the county. I noticed the Air Force Base was reporting moderate snow

Based on the latest radar and satellite data as well as the 12Z nam and GFS, it looks like for most areas west of the bay excluding southern Calvert and St. Mary's that the snowfall amounts will be on the low end of the last posted map.

A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH NOON.
ha...before they said "THROUGH 11AM" now it's noon...and then nothing through noon and they'll say through 1!

david_in_stafford, hey there. Same intensity here in Fredericksburg at my parents' house. I think we are coming up on 2 inches (grassy area). Regret all the snow lovers who woke up this morning to a [properly] reduced accumulation forecast... at least I can drive back to DC with less trouble. Any others out there glad for less snow accumulation?

OK, snow lovers, don't freak out, but I CAN NOW CONFIRM THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN LIFTED FOR DC. IT IS NOW A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... LOUDOUN NO LONGER UNDER ANY ADVISORY/WARNING. But, on the bright side, there's still two full months of winter left. I also advise against any travel north of here along the I95 corridor.

"We postponed travel to the Philly area, and now I wonder if we could have made it up and back today."

--I'm in western Ffx county and needed to go up to Rockville and back very early this morning. Two days ago, minimal snow was called for. Last night, suddenly the "forecasts" were revised to heavy snow and significant accumulation. Then by later last night, it was back to small amounts again. This morning, I did the only thing people can reliably do around here. Looked out the window. Made it to Rockville and back no problem. Counted dozens of salt and sand trucks parked on the roads though. I'm sure those companies are happy to have been sending out and paying people to sit on the side of the road and do nothing for hours.

I've said this before, every time there is a dire snow prediction, or a misfire on something more grand, like the # of major hurricanes that were supposed to hit the US this past fall. (I believe only one or two had any impact). The newspeople, be they TV or radio or websites like this one, need our attention to survive. They need people watching or listening to their stations, or clicking on web pages. What gets people to do that? Dire headlines. "Predictions" of major storms on a travel weekend.

As is proven time and time again, particularly in this area, it's a lot of nonsense. Like someone else posted, it's amazing that people can be spectacularly wrong time and time again and still be able to keep working and making these forecasts.

I'm from the midwest so I have no love of snow, but also no fear of it. But it would be nice if occasionally, just occasionally, we could go to the webpage of the nation's capital newspaper and get a reliable forecast when it comes to possible winter weather.

This can and will get dangerous too, because all these misfired predictions lead to the cry wolf syndrome. People have already started ignoring these constantly incorrect forecasters. When they finally get one right and there is a big snow, a lot of people may be out in it because they assumed not much would happen.

No offense to anyone at CWG, as you've said since this storm was first hinted towards possibly developing that the certainty of the forecast was unusually low, but I digress...
What a bust of a forecast.
Will be looking out my window for the weather before I trust any of the operational models for the duration of this winter.

I wonder how many people cut their vacation short in this area based on this horrible forecasting?
Posted by: tjack55 | December 26, 2010 11:05 AM |
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@tjack55: my guess is 3,763!

I for one am glad for less accumulation; for a bunch of reasons, I was seriously and despairingly dreading the possibility of 4 or more inches.

tjack55, I'm baffled by your accusations of "horrible forecasting." As best I can tell, this was an example of extraordinarily accurate forecasting. From the very first, we were told that there was an exceptional level of uncertainty with regard to this event and that the possibilities ranged from almost nothing to more than 8 inches; we were told that the uncertainty would probably not be resolved until the storm arrived. That's precisely what happened.

Especially on CWG, but even on the other sources I saw, the forecasters were relatively straightforward about this. Disappointment that the particular result people feared, anticipated, and/or desired among a range of almost equally likely outcomes wasn't the one that occurred isn't at all the same thing as "horrible forecasting."

Sorry, CWG mets and readers, but I'm with tjack55 and jollyroger2 on this storm -- based on the respawned, doom-filled snow forecasts & warnings from yesterday afternoon, I cancelled tickets to ICE! today at National Harbor and watched my sister and her husband from PA pull out of our driveway last night TWO DAYS EARLY to avoid "THE STORM." And here we sit in SE FfxCo watching several windswept flurries this morning. WOW. I'm normally very laid-back guy, and I can take or leave a good snowstorm the older I get, but I'm really PISSED about this turn of events. I feel like totally decking the weather right now, but since I can't do that, I'd probably be just as happy choking the nearest met I could get my hands on, just for pure satisfaction...

All along, CWG was reasonable about this. But Bastardi, Rayno, and the storm hypers at accuweather are real pieces of dung. They do this a lot, and they're right less than 50% of the time. According to Joe B's forecasts, we should have had a couple feet by now around IAD for the season.

Some of you will say but Bastardi was right about this or that regarding some past storm. But it's almost always a case of him just hyping a storm to the high end or max of its potential. I don't have a Met degree or any particular weather forecasting background, and my predictions have been much closer to reality than the garbage posted on accuweather. At least they should let the hot young women do more of the videos, especially with all the storm hypers being ugly old bald dudes.

Been snowing for about 2 hours in Annapolis, but very small flakes. My driveway is about 1/4" deep after all this time. Seems to be getting heavier, but who knows. I'd like 3-4" and call it good. We'll see...