I honestly don't think the BE will stay cogent long enough for the BE to add another Western member--

The BE is potentially facing assaults on 3 fronts. BE members on one of those fronts are bound to cave under pressure and seek a more desirable situation and when they do its only going to redouble every one else's attempts to get out. The 3 fronts are:

ACC going hybrid and snapping up 1-3 of the most desirable bb programs (GT, Nova, St John's)MWC getting Boise St and San Diego St to stay, effectively challenging the BE's stranglehold on the title "Best of the Gang of 5"Big 12 getting antsy and going after Louisville and potentially others to fulfill a 12 or 14 team model

If the Big 12 were to expand, they'd beat first look at the ACC again, knowing schools are willing to move. FSU and Clemson, previously discussed schools, sure look like they'd have more flexibility knowing Maryland, a founder got up and left.

It's hard to say what the BE shall do since they don't know whom they will have left after this round of expansion. The ACC will surely take one--probably UCONN or L'ville. Then the ball is in the B12's court, they can expand with at least one BE school or as Quinn conveyed, see if schools such FSU and Clemson would be willing to re-consider. Or, the B12 can sit back and do nothing. If the B12 could extract FSU and Clemson, that could cause GA Tech to be itchy to leave as well, with perhaps, someone such as Miami. I doubt seriously such shall happen, though. My bet is the ACC adds the one replacement and retains the rest. Much depends though, on the ACC resolving internal issues and keeping "all" remaining members somewhat content.

Assuming the BE is STILL not willing to split and the bond with the bb schools is sustained, the BE will be lining up CONDITIONAL possibilites. It would be wonderful for the BE if Army & the AFA change their minds and the BE is able to obtain all the service academies for fb. That happening does not look good, however. The BE adding from out west just got more narrow in options. BYU would have even less reasons to consider BE fb.

Cincy will want to leave the BE, particularly in L'ville goes; Boise State & SDSU may soon seek to formally find an outlet. The rest of BE all-sports/fb will just accept consequences and hope for stability or a better future offer elsewhere.

BE shall be lucky if it can make itself into more of a glorified CUSA. The incentives are so diminished. Some the bb may still be a selling factor, but also has increased limitations.

The Big East is down but still 1000x in a better spot than CUSA. Remember, the Big east took all the best CUSA members and will do so again, whereas CUSA has to look at sunbelt and WAC traditionally for replacements. WAC is done, so we've seen CUSA look to FCS for its recent additions like Charlotte and ODU.

Love to see this hybrid come apart. BB schools break off and grab, Xavier, Dayton & St. Louis U.Boise and SDSU back to MWC for all sports (add NMSU for FB only to balance out Hawaii).UConn to ACC

HOWEVER, if Navy / Army really want access to "the BCS", they need to be FB affiliates of one of the Little 5.If UConn goes, only Temple in BE football is close to Army / Navy.Independence lets them dictate their own schedule, rather than being forced to play all these former CUSA schools.Independence gives no "BCS" access (So what ? - I don't think these teams have NC aspirations)Army / Navy I'm sure would like a TV contract... NBC Sports ? - they've got Notre Dame and CAA FB...

BE has lost Rutgers, and will lose another to ACC (I'm betting on UConn).

Now that BE FB literally has become the old CUSA FB, I do believe that BYU, SDSU, and BYU ought to be looking at the MWC.It's so hard to believe the BE will knock down big $$$ for TV.

If BE football loses more, I think UMass and ECU (both for all sports) would get serious consideration.

CUSA will look to Sun-Belt for any needed replacements (they were looking at Middle Tennessee State this spring).

If Sun-Belt loses schools, that would be an opening for Appy State / Georgia Southern to move up.

It is sort of discouraging for the remnants of the BE and others not in the big power conferences. It's good for those that get to "move up" on any level, but for those stuck with a conference in constant turmoil it's regularly having to adjust which compromises value enhancements.

At least the MAC, on a whole, has had little disruption. But the MAC is low in the FBS pecking order and hasn't been much of a feeder other than the Marshall, and the short-term UCF and Temple, stints, & UNI once leaving but returned.

As to the BE, they'll again reload from the even lower profile conferences, and that long anticipated split will not be put on the table.

Heck, the BE didn't even get to finish re-structuring from the last expansion/re-alignment go-round, and they still don't know who all they will have in the next month or so, let alone next year or the next.

Love to see this hybrid come apart. BB schools break off and grab, Xavier, Dayton & St. Louis U.Boise and SDSU back to MWC for all sports (add NMSU for FB only to balance out Hawaii).UConn to ACC

HOWEVER, if Navy / Army really want access to "the BCS", they need to be FB affiliates of one of the Little 5.If UConn goes, only Temple in BE football is close to Army / Navy.Independence lets them dictate their own schedule, rather than being forced to play all these former CUSA schools.Independence gives no "BCS" access (So what ? - I don't think these teams have NC aspirations)Army / Navy I'm sure would like a TV contract... NBC Sports ? - they've got Notre Dame and CAA FB...

I too am a huge advocate of ending the hybrid. The bb and fb schools at this point are more of a hindrance than an asset to one another. The Almighty Catholic League would be incredibly sexy for NBC or anyone serious about airing basketball in big Midwestern and Eastern markets but doesn't have the cash to land the Big Ten or ACC. To simplify things a little travel wise you could throw in Butler in the West and Richmond in the East and go to division play.

Regarding the football schools, I think we are going to see the Big 12 finally act on Louisville so they don't lose them to the ACC. Perhaps Cincinnati will get to tag along. As for the rest, I think we will either A) see them build a new league from the upper echelon of C-USA or B ) the MWC will find a way to seduce the Texas schools and the rest will simply get reabsorbed into C-USA.

Regarding Army and Navy, independence and their own contract with NBC Sports is the way to go. Army and Navy will both be able to continue to play national schedules, particularly because they can schedule H&A's with MAC/SBC/C-USA/MWC schools.

Rutgers goneConnecticut/Louisville about to goLouisville/Connecticut desparate to leaveBSU and SDS half-heartedly reaffirming their commitments to NBENavy questioning the dealHouston and UCF determining that they can get out of the membership if TV revenues fall short of promised levelsECU still pleading to get in

The time has come to merge with the MWC. Basketball schools go their separate way and the football schools form the Coast-to-Coast conference.

The problem with a full MWC merger is that there's way too many schools involved and you don't "need" half of the MWC.

New Mexico, Wyoming are both small markets and terrible at football. Colorado State and Air Force can bring a decent market put together, but aren't that great on the field.Fresno and Nevada are pretty good, and in decent markets, but not big markets and not good enough to offset that.

And of course, the Big East would need to walk away from the name in order to make it happen, because the basketball schools won't leave on their own accord. They'd have to form a brand new conference:

I too am a huge advocate of ending the hybrid. The bb and fb schools at this point are more of a hindrance than an asset to one another. The Almighty Catholic League would be incredibly sexy for NBC or anyone serious about airing basketball in big Midwestern and Eastern markets but doesn't have the cash to land the Big Ten or ACC. To simplify things a little travel wise you could throw in Butler in the West and Richmond in the East and go to division play.

Regarding the football schools, I think we are going to see the Big 12 finally act on Louisville so they don't lose them to the ACC. Perhaps Cincinnati will get to tag along. As for the rest, I think we will either A) see them build a new league from the upper echelon of C-USA or B ) the MWC will find a way to seduce the Texas schools and the rest will simply get reabsorbed into C-USA.

Regarding Army and Navy, independence and their own contract with NBC Sports is the way to go. Army and Navy will both be able to continue to play national schedules, particularly because they can schedule H&A's with MAC/SBC/C-USA/MWC schools.

I think everyone is an advocate of ending it except the basketball schools, who are clinging to football.

The Almighty Catholic Conference will not happen unless FOOTBALL leaves the Big East, OR the ACC basically takes the hybrid by adding Georgetown, Nova and St. John's to go with Notre Dame; and UConn for #14.

While it's an attractive conference for basketball TV, basketball doesn't get the ratings football does; it's a downgrade in dollars for the BE Hoops schools. So they ain't leaving. They don't wanna be the A-10 to Football's Big East. Even if the Big East is CUSA 2.0.

And of course, that "new conference" above is probably getting raided. The Big 12 could strike at any time, and if the Big Ten expands again, the ACC will replenish from it.

I've long been a believer that it never made financial sense for either sides of the Big East (football members or Catholics) to split, but these latest circumstances are much different. The A-10 comparisons aren't valid - a league with Georgetown, Villanova and St. John's is going to draw much more interest from the TV networks. The last football-playing Big East schools that are able to provide a multiplier effect in terms of TV value on the basketball side of a new contract are Louisville and UConn... and at least one will be gone probably by next week and the other will be doing everything in its power to get out. Thus, we may very well be in a situation where the Catholic schools would make as much or more TV money on their own than staying in the new Big East hybrid. In that event, what's the point of for Catholic schools of staying in an unstable league that they have little control over caused by an FBS sport that they don't play (football)? It would seem to better to be in their own league that they control with like-minded schools.

IMHO, JPSchmack has it backwards. The football-playing schools have never been able to justify splitting from the Catholic schools at all financially, which is why the hybrid has continued on and on. Up to this point, both the football schools and Catholic schools needed each other together to draw out maximum TV value. Now, though, the balance of TV value has tipped in favor of the Catholic schools. They have the best TV markets. They have the traditional brand names. They have the perception of being "power schools" within their sphere of basketball as opposed to being "non-contract schools" for the Big East football members. The Catholic schools have much more leverage in comparison now.

The mistake a lot of people make is in believing that football *in and of itself* is the be all end all, when the reality is that there is only a small percentage of football schools that bring in outsized TV value. As a result, the fact that a group of not-very-valuable schools that happens to play FBS football doesn't automatically trump the value of a league made of strong basketball brand names such as Georgetown, Villanova, etc.

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