The latest Gallup poll has
Romney leading Obama 52% to 45% among likely voters but
Nate Silver, founder of the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight
blog, says Gallup is
the only poll showing Romney ahead. The latest
NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has the candidates tied at 47%
apiece among likely voters.

Foreign policy will be the focus of tonight's debate, but it's
the economy that's more likely to decide the presidential
election. In that case, who is the best man for the job?

Near the end of
Obama's first term, the unemployment rate is 7.8% -- its
lowest level in almost four years but still historically high;
the hemorrhaging in housing seems to have stopped but existing
home sales recently retreated from two-year highs. Corporate
profits reached record highs in the second quarter but seem to be
retreating in the latest third quarter earnings reports.

Romney has attacked the president repeatedly for the weak
economic recovery and has offered instead a "five-point plan"
that includes tax and spending cuts, regulatory reform and
improved education and job training, which he says, will help
create 12 million jobs.

Romney would extend the Bush tax cuts, slash income taxes 20%
across the board for all and increase defense spending. He says
his
tax plan won't increase the deficit because money would be
raised by closing tax loopholes. The nonpartisan Tax Policy
Center says it will increase the deficit by $5 trillion over 10
years—maybe less depending on which loopholes are closed, but
Romney hasn't provided those details.

"I don't think it makes a lot of difference (who wins) in the
short run because the deleveraging that's taking place in the
private sectors around the world is so great that it's really
overwhelming pretty much anything they can do in Washington,"
says Gary Shilling, president of
A. Gary Shilling and Co., a financial forecasting and money
management firm.

Shilling says Romney or Obama could make a difference if their
party ends up controlling both houses of Congress. In that case,
there could be decisive action on reducing the deficit long term,
he adds.

As it stands now, Shilling says there are advantages and
disadvantages to the approaches of each candidate. Spending more
on infrastructure and other stimulus, which the president has
proposed, would boost growth but increase the deficit and distort
the economy, says Shilling.

"Government spending builds constituencies and they don't go
away, " says Shilling in an interview with The
Daily Ticker. "The Tennessee Valley Authority was put in to
tame the wild Tennessee River. How did they end up becoming the
biggest coal fire generator in the country?

In contrast to Obama, Shilling says Romney's approach resembles
the "Austrian school" to cut taxes and spending in order to
"starve the beast." He says it might look promising at first
glance "but can you do that in an economy as weak as it is
without some dire consequences?"

Shilling says voters shouldn't expect any grand, dramatic changes
to the economy no matter who wins the election.

"When people really get down to it, not as campaigners but as
people in charge of the government and a big influence on the
economy, they do try to act sensibly," he notes. Let's hope he's
right.