CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

Transcription

1 CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics August 2 (June 2 data) Highlights During June, credit unions picked up 44, new memberships, loan balances grew at an 1 annualized pace, vacation spending and car purchases reduced savings balances., firms hired 231, workers, nominal consumer spending increased a modest., and long-term interest rates rose 16 basis points. Second quarter economic growth came in at 2., better than the. in Q1. At the end of June, CUNA s monthly estimates reported 6,37 CUs in operation, down 2 CUs from one month earlier. Year-over-year the number of credit unions declined by 293, more than the 259 lost in the months ending in June 2. Total credit union assets fell. in June as credit unions liquidated investments to pay down $3.5 billion in wholesale borrowings. Assets rose 6.% over the past year due to a 5. increase in deposits, a % increase in borrowings, and a 7. increase in capital. The nation s credit unions increased their loan portfolios 1. in June, slightly more than the 1. pace reported in June 2, and 1. during the last months. June is historically the month reporting the fastest loan growth as the summer car buying season begins. Credit union memberships rose a robust.4 in June, up from a.2 gain reported in June 2, the fastest monthly growth rate since July 2. Memberships are up 3. over the past year due to rapid job creation and strong demand for new and used auto loans. Credit union loan delinquency rates fell to.6 in June, down from. one year earlier due to a stronger economy and double digit loan growth. As the labor market approaches full employment and the unemployment rate falls, the delinquency rate will decline even further. ECONOMIC, COMPETITIVE AND INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT During June, the economy added 231, jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 5., personal income jumped., consumer prices climbed., consumer confidence rose, new home sales plummeted 6., existing home sales rose 3., auto sales fell, home prices rose 1., and the 1-year Treasury interest rate increased 16 basis points to average 2.3. The economy expanded at a 2. annual pace in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, better than the. pace reported in the first quarter. Sectors that led growth included: consumer spending, residential investment, exports, and state and local government spending. Sectors dragging down growth included: federal government spending and imports, which of course displace domestic production. Expect the economy to expand at a pace in the second half of 2 and 3. in 216. This will move the economy to full employment by the summer of 216; increasing wage growth, boosting consumer incomes, and ultimately, additional borrowing. Total Lending Credit union loan balances rose 1. in June, faster than 1. pace reported in June 2, due to strong growth in new-auto loans (2.%), fixed-rate first mortgages (1.), and used-auto loans (1.). The only lending product still contracting was second mortgage loans (-.) as members continued to roll second mortgage balances into refinanced first mortgages. June is typically the month of the year recording the fastest loan growth with seasonal factors adding.46 percentage points to the underlying trend growth. Credit union loan balances were growing at an 1 seasonally-adjusted annualized growth rate in June, (Figure 1), similar to the credit boom. There are confluences of factors that will drive double digit loan growth through 216. The most important one is job growth. The economy is expected to add close to 3 million jobs in both 2 and 216. As the labor market reaches full employment in the first half of 216, wage growth will begin to accelerate. This will raise consumer confidence back to prerecession highs. Figure 1 CU Loan Growth Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate % 1 % 1 % % 1 % 1 % - -

2 Credit Union Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) Credit union consumer-installment-credit loan balances (auto, credit card and other unsecured loans) rose. during the months ending in June, helping to pull-up the overall loan growth average to 1. (Figure 2), which is the fastest pace since September 29. Real estate loans increased only 7. over the past year, reducing the pace of overall loan growth. The underlying trend of credit card loan balance growth spiked in June with the seasonally-adjusted annualized growth rate moving up to 7. (Figure 3) as members began loosening their purse strings Loan Growth Trends June 2 Total Loans Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) Real Estate Secured Loans Figure 2 Figure CU Credit Card Growth Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate 1 % % 1 % 1 % Vehicle Loans Vehicle sales fell slightly in June to a 17. million unit seasonally-adjusted, annualized sales rate, from 17.7 million in May, but up from 16.9 million in June 2 (Figure 4). Credit union new-auto loan balances rose in June, the fastest monthly pace so far this year, but below the 2. reported in June of last year. Credit union new-auto loans historically grow the fastest in June as the summer car buying season shifts into high gear (Figure 5). May through October is considered the new-auto buying and lending season. Credit union new-auto loan balances rose 2. over the past year making it the fastest growing credit union loan category. 1 % % 1 % 1 % Millions of Units Figure 4 U.S. Vehicles Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Source: Autodata Corp. Recession New Auto Sales %.....% % Figure 5 New Auto Loan Seasonal Factors Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: CUNA & NCUA Used-auto loans, a credit union loan category typically twice as large as new-auto loans, were the second fastest growing loan category during the last months. Used-auto loan balances rose by. in the year to June. So used-auto loans accounted for 2 of the total increase in loan balances over the past year, while new-auto loans only accounted for 2. And with a typical used-auto loan originated at roughly half the dollar amount of a new-auto loan, many credit unions have had to increase staffing in this lending area to keep up with the surge in used-auto loan demand. 2 Credit Union Trends Report

3 Billions of Dollars Real Estate-Secured Lending 1 st Mortgages and Other Real Estate Credit union fixed-rate first mortgage loan balances grew 1. in June, slower than the 2. reported in June 2. But year-to-date growth comparison shows the exact 3. growth rate during the first half of 2 and 2 (Figure 6). Adjustable-rate first mortgage loan balances grew faster than fixed-rate loans, increasing in the first half of the year, but slightly less than the reported in the first six months of 2. Credit unions now hold $31 billion of first mortgages on their books, which is 3. of the entire mortgage market. Home equity lending posted a weaker than expected growth rate in June, increasing by only., compared to. in June 2. This was probably only a temporary lull, however, as consumer spending is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2 and credit union members will tap into their home equity to finance those purchases. The contract interest rate on a 3-year fixed-rate conventional home mortgage rose to 3.9 in June, up from 3. in May, but below the 4.1 reported in June 2. We expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September, which will lift the 3-year mortgage interest rate to the range by year end. This forecasted increase in interest rates will encourage some fence sitters to purchase a home now before interest rates rise further. Home prices rose 1. in June from May, according to the Core Logic Home Price Index, and 6. year-over-year. The index is now 4 above the low point in March 2, and only below the peak set in April 2. Home prices are expected to rise another in 2 and in 216. Therefore, home prices should reach new highs by the end of 216. All the fundamental drivers of housing demand are accelerating and will keep home prices moving higher over the next two years. Labor market slack is decreasing rapidly and wage growth is beginning to accelerate, both of which are positive factors for homebuyer demand and house price appreciation. Credit union mortgage lending should increase as improving financial positions among borrowers and rising incomes justify loosening credit standards. In addition, confidence in the housing market will return as the general economy strengthens and lingering memories regarding the most recent housing downturn fade from view. Fixed Rate 1 st Mortgage Loans Year-to-Date Growth Comparison $ Credit Union Liquidity Flows $75. June Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ -$1 -$2 $52.9 $1.2 $1.3 $.4 -$3.5 -$.9 -$.9 $5. $ Loans Investments Savings borrowings Capital Figure 6 Figure 7 Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) Credit union surplus funds as a percent of assets fell to 31. in June, down from 34. in June 2, as credit unions partly funded $75 billion in new loans with $.9 billion of cash and investments (Figure 7). The lion s share of loans, however, was funded with $52.9 billion in new savings deposits. The rest of the loans were funded by $5. billion in additional borrowings and $.7 billion in additional capital (net income). The obverse of the falling surplus funds ratio is the rising loan-to-asset ratio, which reached 64. in June, the highest level since January 21. Credit unions can expect rising asset yields over the next year as more and more funds are moved from the investment portfolio into new and used auto loans and additional mortgage lending. During the month of June, credit unions added $1.2 billion in loans to their balance sheets, the fastest in credit union history. Surplus funds were drawn down by $.9 billion to fund the new loans and pay down $3.5 billion in wholesale borrowings. Paying-off borrowings reduced the overall size of credit union balance sheets. Total assets fell. and the capital-to-asset ratio rose to 1. as credit unions filled out their 2 nd quarter NCUA call report. 3 Credit Union Trends Report

4 Savings and Assets Credit union savings balances grew.1 in June, faster than the -. drop in balances in June 2, due to consumers pocketing the savings at the gas pump. Savings balances rose 4. during the first half of 2, better than the 3. rise for the similar period last year. With the Federal Reserve expected to increase the Fed funds interest rate soon, many credit unions will experience deposit runoff in 216 as interest-rate-sensitive members look for higher returns elsewhere. The underlying trend growth rate of deposits came in at a 5. seasonally-adjusted, annualized growth rate in June (Figure ), which is the fourth time this year trend growth exceeded. Savings balance growth is strong due to low gas prices, rising household income, strong job growth, and fast membership growth. June s seasonal factors (car purchases, vacations) typically subtract -.25 percentage points to June s growth rate (Figure 9). CU savings seasonal factors will remain negative for rest of the year. Figure Figure 9 Capital and Other Key Measures The credit union capital-to-asset ratio rose to 1. in June, above the 1. reported in June 2 (Figure 1). The capital-to-asset ratio should reach 1 by year-end, the highest level since September 2 the month Lehman Brothers collapsed. During the past year the dollar amount of credit union capital rose 7. to reach $.3 billion. The 7. growth rate is also known as the return-on-equity ratio. The credit union loan delinquency rate (loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans outstanding) fell to.6 in June, from.6 in May, and. from one year earlier (Figure ). Credit union delinquency rates are highly correlated to the nation s unemployment rate which fell to 5. in June, the lowest since April 2. As the labor market approaches full employment ( unemployment rate) wages and salaries should begin to accelerate, improving the financial position of existing workers and lowering the delinquency rate even further. 9 5 Figure CU Savings Growth Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate % % 1 % 1 % Credit Union Key Ratios June 2 Capital-to-Asset (Right Scale) 1. Loan-to-Share (Left Scale) % % 1 % 1 % %.... CU Savings Seasonal Factors %.% Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: CUNA & NCUA. Figure 1 Figure % CU Delinquency Rate Versus Unemployment Rate Recession Unemployment (Left Axis).25 1 Delinquency (Right Axis) Credit Union Trends Report

5 Credit Unions and Members As of June 2, CUNA estimates 6,37 credit unions were in operation, 2 fewer than May and 293 fewer than June 2 (Figure ). During the first half of 2, approximately 5 credit unions ceased to exist because of mergers, purchase and assumptions, or liquidation. During a typical year 4 of the total decline in the number of credit unions takes place in the first half (Figure ). So we can forecast the 2 full year decline in the number of credit unions to be 27, slightly above the 22 reported in 2. The average asset size of a credit union now stands at $15.3 million, up 1. from a year ago. The median asset size is now $25.5 million, up 7. over the last year. The trend towards industry consolidation and bigger credit unions is only likely to accelerate due to the benefits of greater economies of scale, higher productivity, and larger earnings that are all achieved with a larger asset base. Larger more efficient credit unions will also raise the barrier to entry for new small credit unions. NCUA s Insurance Report of Activity showed 27 mergers in June with an average asset size of $19. million, up from 2 mergers reported in June 2 with average asset size of $24 million. Comparison of Declines in # of CUs June 2 Actual = 6,37 Annual Net Decline in Number of CUs Number of CUs 4 Annual Declines June to June # of CUs 5 JAN - JUN JUL - DEC % s = JAN - JUN Share of Annual Change YTD June Declines Annual Declines Figure Figure Credit union memberships grew a strong 44, in June, or.4, much better than the 252, new members, or.2, added in June 2. Total credit union memberships have now reached million which is 32. of the total U.S. population. The membership gain was driven by strong demand for credit by the American consumer and the 231, new jobs added to the U.S. economy in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Year-to-date credit unions added 2 million new members, (Figure ), faster than the 1.7 million members added in 2. Year-over-year memberships have increased at a 3. pace, (Figure ), the fastest in more than 2 years. We expect the economy to add another 3 million jobs in 2 and 216 contributing to credit union membership growth of in both 2 and Figure Figure Comparison of Membership Increases Members in Millions 4..5 June 2 Actual =.4 Million YTD June Increase.6 Annual Increase June to June Annual Increase 3.3 Figure Annual Membership Growth June 2 =.4 Million Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2 5 Credit Union Trends Report

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