Wednesday, May 31, 2006

I was just checking out the latest weather data coming into the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center, and it still appears our next best chance to see rain in our area will be on Friday. We cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm Thursday afternoon, but the rain will be more widespread on Friday.

In fact, there will be the possibility for a few strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed parts of central North Carolina under a "slight risk" for severe weather. The SPC is the government agency that keeps tabs on severe weather across the U.S. When severe weather is possible, the SPC places a specific area under a slight, moderate, or high risk for severe weather. We don't see too many moderate risks issued for North Carolina, and a high risk would be extremely rare. The slight risk means storm experts at the SPC believe there is at least a small possibility for storms to develop Friday that could produce large hail and strong gusty winds.

A lot can change when it comes to weather, so severe weather is not a certainty for Friday. It's just a possibility. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com. We'll keep you updated as the latest weather data comes into the Weather on the Ones forecast center.

If you're already starting to think about those weekend plans, it looks like most of the rain from Friday evening will move out of our region by Saturday. Both Saturday and Sunday look to be calm days with partly cloudy conditions and highs in the low to mid 80s.

On another note, hurricane season for the Atlantic basin begins on Thursday. As you have more than likely heard, this is forecasted to be another active season for the Atlantic basin. You'll find a lot of information about the season in posts listed below this one. I would also encourage you to check back with our blog often, as this will be a great resource for us to pass along the latest information through the season.

Just one example of how we must remain alert on the roads especially when rain may impair our visibility. In this case, the rain more than likely also created a slick highway for motorists. Since, we have not seen too much rain in the past few days, a thin film of oil may have accumulated on the highway surface. Add a little rain to that, and you get a very slick roadway.

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

The Memorial Day weekend turned out to be almost perfect in the weather category. The only hickup were the temperatures.

Here's how hot it's been in Raleigh

Friday, May 26: 90Saturday, May 27: 86Sunday, May 28 88Monday, May 29 88

For Fayetteville it wasn't much better

Friday, May 26: 97Saturday, May 27: 93Sunday, May 28 90Monday, May 29 91

We're anticipating a change as we move closer to the weekend. Right now a slow moving cold front is bringing stormy weather to the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. This same front will advance our way by Friday increasing our chance for rain and thunderstorms. I think warm and humid conditions will hang around until we can get this front through here. So, hang in there and spend some time by the pool or in the A/C. I think once we get to Saturday and Sunday you will enjoy the results of this passing front.

Saturday, May 27, 2006

Memorial Day Weekend sometimes brings stormy weather to North Carolina. In fact on this date (May 27) in 1998, softball size hail was reported near Pekin in Montgomery County! Fortunately, we have not seen anything like that this weekend, but we did get off to a stormy start Friday evening.

Here's a look back at some of the storm reports from Friday's round of severe storms --

9:10pm -- Reports of powerlines down about 8 miles east-northeast of Raleigh

We will not have to worry about any more stormy weather for what remains of this holiday weekend. The big story for Sunday and Monday will be the heat. Our forecast calls for highs near 90 both days. With plenty of sunshine expected, you'll want to pack the sunscreen and water bottle for your outdoor plans.

Looking ahead to the work week, there are some indications a few thunderstorms may return by Tuesday afternoon. If these storms develop, they would be isolated in nature. The chance for these isolated storms will remain small for Tuesday. However, our rain chances will increase by Friday of next week.

Enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend. When you need a quick update on the forecast to plan your outdoor activities, we'll be here with your Weather on the Ones only on News 14 Carolina!

On Saturday we take a look at what you need to reflect on when a hurricane or tropical system is headed toward the region.

Taking action is as easy as one...two...three.

Before hurricane season you should assemble your disaster supply kit. These items are often scattered around your home and simply need to be brought together into one location. Also develop your family disaster plan.

Discuss the possible hazards with your family. Determine if you are in an evacuation area and where you would go if you had to evacuate. Identify an out-of-town family contact. When a hurricane watch is issued for the North Carolina coast you should...check your disaster supply kit. Make sure nothing is missing. Determine if there is anything you need to supplement your kit and replenish your water. Then activate your family disaster plan.

Protective measures should be initiated, especially those with coastal property including houses and boats. When a hurricane warning is issued you should...ready your disaster supply kit for use. If you need to evacuate, you should bring your supply kit with you. Use your family disaster plan. Your family should be in the process of completing protective actions and deciding the safest location to be during the storm.

For more information on Hurricane Awareness Week check out this web site.

Get Ready! The ingredients are coming together on Friday for another possible round of strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire News 14 Carolina viewing area under the slight risk category for strong to severe storms through the evening hours. Stay with News 14 Carolina for continuing severe weather coverage. And if you have any severe weather in your neighborhood, be sure to send us those storm reports and storm photos. We'll pass your reports along to the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire News 14 Carolina viewing area. Heat, humidity, and a sweeping front will combine to make strong to severe storms Friday afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening will do so quickly. Storms will contain the potential for heavy rain, dangerous cloud to ground lightning, strong winds, and small hail.

Keep in mind it doesn't take a large storm to produce a widespread area of damage. The northern Wake county cell from Thursday afternoon was only a few miles wide, but was powerful enough to bring down trees and power lines as it slowly marched across the area. I was in the path of this storm and can report an intense burst of wind which made rains horizontal, reduced visibility to zero, snapping many branches and limbs. Now, the National Weather Service will have the final call on what happened, but as I reported on News 14 Carolina it certainly seemed like a downburst or microburst.

So, as you are beginning the holiday weekend be sure to remain aware of the conditions because they can deteriorate in a hurry ahead storms. Once we get past Friday the holiday weekend will be better weather wise, but still warm. You can rely on News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for up to date information. When the sky turns threatening we'll be on the air for you.

We continue with News 14 Carolina's coverage of Hurricane Awareness Week. Each day the National Weather Service in Raleigh has covered a different topic to help all of us prepare for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane season. Today the actual topic is how to be prepared if a storm hits your area. Please read this very important information.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NCFRI MAY 26 2006...

NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK...

THIS WEEK HAS BEEN DECLARED NORTH CAROLINA'S HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK FOR 2006. ALL WEEK LONG THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING INFORMATIVE MESSAGES TO HELP YOU PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON. EACH DAY WE WILL COVER A DIFFERENT TOPIC.

TODAY WE WILL TALK ABOUT BEING PREPARED. PREVENTING THE LOSS OF LIFE AND MINIMIZING DAMAGE TO PROPERTY FROM HURRICANES ARE RESPONSIBILITIES THAT ARE SHARED BY EVERYONE. IF YOU ARE ASKED TO EVACUATE, YOU SHOULD DO SO WITHOUT DELAY. BUT UNLESS YOU LIVE IN A COASTAL OR LOW-LYING AREA, AN AREA THAT FLOODS FREQUENTLY, OR IN MANUFACTURED HOUSING, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL ASK YOU TO EVACUATE. THAT MEANS THAT IT IS IMPORTANT FOR YOU AND YOUR FAMILY TO HAVE A PLAN THAT MAKES YOU AS SAFE AS POSSIBLE IN YOUR HOME. DISASTER PREVENTION INCLUDES MODIFYING YOUR HOME TO STRENGTHEN IT AGAINST STORMS SO THAT YOU CAN BE AS SAFE AS POSSIBLE. IT ALSO INCLUDES HAVING THE PROPER SUPPLIES ON HAND TO WEATHER THE STORM. THE SUGGESTIONS PROVIDED HERE ARE ONLY GUIDES. YOU SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE IN YOUR DISASTER PREVENTION.

DEVELOP A FAMILY PLAN - YOUR FAMILY PLAN SHOULD BE BASED ON YOUR VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE HAZARDS INCLUDING HIGH WIND, FLOODING, AND TORNADOES AND FALLING TREES. IN A DISASTER YOU SHOULD PLAN TO BE ABLE TO PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 5 DAYS WITHOUT UTILITY SERVICES OR AID. SHARE YOUR PLAN WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY.

LOCATE A SAFE ROOM OR THE SAFEST AREAS IN YOUR HOME FOR EACH HURRICANE HAZARD. IN CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES THE SAFEST AREAS MAY NOT BE YOUR HOME BUT WITHIN YOUR COMMUNITY.

DETERMINE ESCAPE ROUTES FROM YOUR HOME AND PLACES TO MEET IF YOU BECOME SEPARATED.

HAVE AN OUT-OF-STATE FRIEND AS A FAMILY CONTACT.

MAKE A PLAN NOW FOR WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR PETS IF YOU NEED TO EVACUATE.

CREATE A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT - THERE ARE CERTAIN ITEMS YOU NEED TO HAVE REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU RIDE OUT A HURRICANE. THE DISASTER SUPPLY KIT IS A USEFUL TOOL WHEN YOU EVACUATE AS WELL AS MAKING YOU AS SAFE AS POSSIBLE IN YOUR HOME.

IMPORTANT ITEMS FOR YOUR KIT INCLUDE...

WATER - AT LEAST 1 GALLON DAILY PER PERSON FOR 3 TO 7 DAYS.

FOOD - AT LEAST ENOUGH FOR 3 TO 7 DAYS NON-PERISHABLE PACKAGED OR CANNED FOOD AND JUICES. INCLUDE FOODS FOR INFANTS OR THE ELDERLY AS WELL AS SNACK FOODS. NON-ELECTRIC CAN OPENER IN A MUST ALONG WITH COOKING TOOLS, FUEL, PAPER PLATES AND PLASTIC UTENSILS.

BLANKETS AND PILLOWS CLOTHING - SEASONAL CLOTHES ALONG WITH RAIN GEAR AND STURDY SHOES. FIRST AID KIT INCLUDING MEDICINES AND PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. SPECIAL ITEMS FOR BABIES AND THE ELDERLY. TOILETRIES AND HYGIENE ITEMS ALONG WITH MOIST AND DISINFECTANT WIPES.

FLASHLIGHTS AND RADIO - BATTERY OPERATED LIGHTS AND RADIOS INCLUDING A NOAA WEATHER RADIO. CASH PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF WITH SOME SMALL BILLS. IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS KEPT IN A WATERPROOF CONTAINER OR WATERTIGHT RESEALABLE PLASTIC BAG OR BOX INCLUDING INSURANCE, MEDICAL RECORDS, BANK ACCOUNT NUMBERS, SOCIAL SECURITY CARDS, AND SO ON.

TOOLS - KEEP A SET OF TOOLS WITH YOU DURING THE STORM OR IN YOUR VEHICLE IF YOU ARE EVACUATING. PREPARE PET CARE ITEMS INCLUDING PROPER IDENTIFICATION, IMMUNIZATION RECORDS, MEDICATIONS, AMPLE SUPPLY OF FOOD AND WATER AND A CARRIER OR CAGE.

SECURE YOUR HOME - THERE ARE THINGS THAT YOU CAN DO TO MAKE YOUR HOME MORE SECURE AND ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONGER STORMS. BE SURE TO SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS AROUND THE HOUSE BEFORE THE WIND STARTS TO BLOW. HOW WELL YOU AND YOUR FAMILY COPE WITH A DISASTER WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL YOU PLAN, PREPARE AND ACT. REALIZE DISASTERS OCCUR EVERYWHERE IN OUR STATE AND HURRICANES POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE SCALE DISASTERS. PREPARING FOR TOMORROWS STORM TODAY IS THE BEST THING YOU CAN DO FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY.

Hurricane season officially starts on June 1. During the first few months of hurricane season, most storms tend to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. These storms can and have impacted North Carolina as a tropical depression and even a tropical storm producing heavy rains and isolated tornadoes. "Cindy" did this in 2005.

Thursday, May 25, 2006

We continue our look at Hurricane Awareness Week at News 14 Carolina with the help of the National Weather Service in Raleigh. Today's topic from the NWS covers tropical system forecasting.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NCMAY 25 2006...

NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK...

THIS WEEK HAS BEEN DECLARED NORTH CAROLINA'S HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK FOR 2006. ALL WEEK LONG THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING INFORMATIVE MESSAGES TO HELP YOU PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON. EACH DAY WE WILL COVER A DIFFERENT TOPIC. TODAY WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE FORECAST PROCESS.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...PART OF THE MISSION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER (TPC) IS TO SAVE LIVES AND PROTECT PROPERTY BY ISSUING WATCHES, WARNINGS, FORECASTS, AND ANALYSES OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICS. TPC IS COMPRISED OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB), AND THE TECHNICAL SUPPORT BRANCH (TSB). DURING HURRICANE SEASON, THE LATTER TWO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO THE NHC OBSERVATIONS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USES ALL OF THE TOOLS IN THE ARSENAL WHEN TRACKING HURRICANES. SATELLITES... BUOYS... AIRCRAFT AND RADAR ARE ALL IMPORTANT TOOLS USED FOR HURRICANE FORECASTING. WHILE HURRICANES ARE STILL FAR OUT IN THE OCEAN, INDIRECT MEASUREMENTS USING SATELLITES ARE THE MAIN TOOL, ALTHOUGH SHIPS AND BUOYS ALSO PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS. ONCE THE STORMS COME CLOSER TO LAND, MORE DIRECT MEASUREMENTS ARE TAKEN BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DROPPING RADIOSONDES. WITHIN ABOUT 200 MILES OF THE COAST, RADAR PROVIDES IMPORTANT INDIRECT MEASUREMENTS OF THE STORM. COMPUTER MODELS USED TO FORECAST STORM INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT REQUIRE A GREAT DEAL OF DATA ABOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LACK OF OBSERVATIONS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN) AND ERRORS AND INCONSISTENCIES IN THE DATA ARE MAJOR SOURCES OF FORECAST ERRORS. CENTRAL MODEL

GUIDANCE/INTERPRETATION...COMPUTER MODELS TAKE ALL THE VARIOUS OBSERVATIONS AND PERFORM MILLIONS OF CALCULATIONS TO GENERATE PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANE BEHAVIOR. THE ATMOSPHERE IN WHICH THE HURRICANE IS MOVING IS VERY IMPORTANT TO HURRICANE INTENSITY AND MOTION. THE OUTPUT FROM ALL OF THESE COMPUTER MODELS ARE PACKAGED AS GUIDANCE AND IS EVALUATED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS WELL AS LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. HURRICANE FORECASTERS MUST LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODEL RESULTS, WHICH FREQUENTLY GIVE WIDELY DIFFERENT PICTURES OF THE FUTURE. WHEN THE MODELS DISAGREE, HURRICANE FORECASTERS MUST USE THEIR EXPERIENCE AND JUDGMENT TO DECIDE WHICH MODEL IS PERFORMING THE BEST UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. A GOOD FORECASTER HAS AN EXTENSIVE EDUCATION IN THE SCIENCE OF METEOROLOGY AND CONSIDERABLE EXPERIENCE IN TROPICAL FORECASTING. NONETHELESS, MANY TIMES THE DIFFERENT DATA SOURCES ARE CONFLICTING FOR FORECASTERS TO HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THEIR PREDICTIONS. FORECASTERS RECOGNIZE THAT CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. THIS IS WHY FORECASTS TALK ABOUT "PROBABILITIES" AND "MARGIN OF ERROR".

PRODUCT GENERATION...ONCE FORECASTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GENERATES THE HURRICANE FORECAST AND WARNING PRODUCTS. HURRICANE FORECASTS ARE CREATED 4 TIMES A DAY WHEN HURRICANES ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CARIBBEAN SEA OR GULF OF MEXICO AT 5 AM...11 AM... 5 PM... AND 11 PM EDT.

INFORMATION DISSEMINATION...ALL OF THIS HURRICANE FORECAST AND WARNING INFORMATION IS SENT OUT TO ALL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR RELAY TO EVERYONE. TELEVISION AND RADIO AND NAA WEATHER RADIO ARE SOME OF THE BEST MEANS TO GET THE MOST UP TO DATE HURRICANE INFORMATION. THE INTERNET CAN ALSO BE A GOOD SOURCE OF INFORMATION. YOU CAN VISIT THE RALEIGH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAH TO GET LOCAL FORECASTS AND HURRICANE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.

YOUR LOCAL RALEIGH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...THE ROLE OF THE RALEIGH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IS TO TAKE THE HURRICANE FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND LOCALIZE THE THREAT TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE RALEIGH OFFICE CLOSELY EXAMINES THE THREATS OF WIND... TORNADOES... RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO LOCAL AND STATE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AS WELL AS THE MEDIA AND PUBLIC. THE RALEIGH NWS OFFICE WILL ISSUE RIVER FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO HELP SAVE LIVES FROM FLOOD WATERS WELL BEFORE THE FIRST DROP OF RAIN. TORNADO WARNINGS WILL ALSO BE ISSUED BY THE RALEIGH OFFICE AS FORECASTERS DETECT THEM ON THE NEXRAD DOPPLER RADAR.

Hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and runs through the end of November.

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

We continue our coverage of Hurricane Awareness Week at News 14 Carolina. Today's topic from the National Weather Service is inland flooding.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NCMAY 24 2006...

NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK...

THIS WEEK HAS BEEN DECLARED NORTH CAROLINA'S HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK FOR 2006. ALL WEEK LONG THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING INFORMATIVE MESSAGES TO HELP YOU PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON. EACH DAY WE WILL COVER A DIFFERENT TOPIC. TODAY WE WILL TALK ABOUT INLAND FLOODING.

INLAND FLOODING IS ONE OF THE MOST SERIOUS AND DEADLY THREATS HURRICANES BRING TO NORTH CAROLINA. MOST HURRICANE DEATHS OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF INLAND FLOODING. DURING THE PAST 30 YEAR PERIOD MORE THAN HALF (59%) OF ALL U.S. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEATHS HAVE OCCURRED FROM INLAND FRESHWATER FLOODING. NEARLY 78 PERCENT OF ALL CHILDREN KILLED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES DROWN IN THESE FRESHWATER FLOODS. AT LEAST 23 PERCENT OF ALL FLOODING DEATHS HAVE OCCURRED IN AUTOMOBILES AS PEOPLE ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE TRAGIC HURRICANE SEASON OF 2005 WAS NO EXCEPTION. COUNTLESS INDIVIDUALS DROWN FROM LOUISIANA TO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. DURING HURRICANE FLOYD... OF THE 56 PEOPLE WHO PERISHED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... 50 DROWNED DUE TO INLAND FLOODING AND MOST IN AUTOMOBILES.

THE NWS SAFETY CAMPAIGN TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN IS AIMED AT EDUCATING EVERYONE ABOUT THE DANGERS OF DRIVING INTO FLOOD WATERS. A HURRICANES RAINFALL INTENSITY IS NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE. WEAK HURRICANES AND EVEN TROPICAL STORMS HAVE CAUSED DISASTROUS FLOODS THROUGHOUT HISTORY. WEAK TROPICAL STORM ALLISON DROPPED OVER 2 FEET OF RAIN IN EAST TEXAS RESULTING IN 22 DEATHS AND MAJOR DAMAGE.

SO WHAT CAN YOU DO? WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS... THINK FLOODING. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO DETERMINE IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA AT RISK FROM FLOODING FROM RAINFALL. IF YOUR YARD OR THE ROAD IN FRONT OF OR AROUND YOUR HOME FLOODS DURING ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS YOU ARE LIKELY AT SERIOUS RISK OF FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL HURRICANE RAINFALL. THOSE LIVING NEAR CREEKS...

STREAMS AND DRAINAGE DITCHES SHOULD ALSO WATCH WATER LEVELS CLOSELY. REMEMBER, EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS BRING EXTREME FLOODING AND DURING EXTREME EVENTS EVEN THOSE AREA WHICH NORMALLY DO NOT FLOOD CAN BE AT RISK.

ALWAYS KEEP ABREAST OF ROAD CONDITIONS AND BE SURE YOUR ESCAPE ROUTE IS NOT BECOMING CUT OFF BY FLOOD WATERS.

NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOWING WATER. AS LITTLE AS SIX INCHES OF FLOWING MAY FORCE YOUR CAR OFF THE ROAD AND DOWNSTREAM INTO DEADLY CONDITIONS.

NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY NEAR CREEKS... STREAM OR DRAINAGE DITCHES. AS RAIN WATER RUNS OFF CREEKS... STREAMS AND DITCHES FILL WITH RUNNING WATER THAT CAN EASILY SWEEP A CHILD AWAY.

LASTLY...HAVE AN EMERGENCY ACTION PLAN AND KNOW YOUR HOMEOWNERS AND FLOOD INSURANCE POLICIES. FLOOD DAMAGE IS NOT USUALLY COVERED BY HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE. DO NOT MAKE ASSUMPTIONS. CHECK YOUR POLICIES.

Major flooding that can affected North Carolina typically occurs when back to back tropical system impact the same area. The eastern part of the state saw this with Dennis and Floyd in 1999. And Western North Carolina had major flooding in 2004 when Frances and Ivan crossed over the mountains and foothills.

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

The Animal Planet Expo at Bond Metro Park in Cary on Saturday was a big success. The overall attendance was estimated at between 17,500 and 18,000. We also appreciated all of you who stopped by the Time Warner booth and said hello.

Posted below are a few photos from the event.

Meteorologist Lee Ringer presents check from Time Warner to the SPCA of Wake county

On this Tuesday we continue our coverage of Hurricane Awareness Week at News 14 Carolina. Hurricanes and Tropical Storms come ashore packing all types of dangerous weather. High winds from these systems can bring down trees, powerlines and can turn everyday objects into flying missiles.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NCMAY 23 2006...

NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE AWARENESS...

THIS WEEK HAS BEEN DECLARED NORTH CAROLINA'S HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK FOR 2006. ALL WEEK LONG THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING INFORMATIVE MESSAGES TO HELP YOU PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON. EACH DAY WE WILL COVER A DIFFERENT TOPIC. TODAY WE WILL TALK ABOUT HIGH WINDS.

THE INTENSITY OF A LAND FALLING HURRICANE IS EXPRESSED IN TERM OF CATEGORIES THAT RELATE TO WIND SPEEDS AND POTENTIAL DAMAGE. A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE, ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE, HAS LIGHTER WIND WHEN COMPARED TO HIGHER CATEGORY HURRICANES. A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... LIKE HURRICANES HAZEL AND HUGO... WOULD HAVE WINDS BETWEEN 131-155 MPH, AND WOULD BE EXPECTED TO CAUSE 100 TIMES MORE DAMAGE THAN A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.

EVEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF LESS THAN 74 MPH ARE CAPABLE TOSSING AROUND DEBRIS AND CAUSING DAMAGE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN FROM HURRICANE FRAN. FOR THIS REASON, YOU NEED TO BE IS A STURDY SHELTER AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND AND BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS MAY BE HOURS AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL HURRICANE EYE. FOR THIS REASON MANY EMERGENCY MANAGERS TYPICALLY HAVE EVACUATIONS COMPLETED AND PERSONNEL SHELTERED BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN EASILY DESTROY POORLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS AND MOBILE HOMES. DEBRIS SUCH AS SIGNS, ROOFING, AND SMALL ITEMS LEFT OUTSIDE BECOME FLYING MISSILES IN HIGH WIND. FALLING TREES CAN CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO POWER LINES, TOWERS AND UNDERGROUND WATER LINES. THIS CAN CAUSE EXTENDED DISRUPTIONS OF UTILITY SERVICES. THESE DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE JUST AS DEVASTATING AS TORNADOES.

THE STRONGEST WINDS USUALLY OCCUR IN THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE. WIND SPEED USUALLY DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. NONETHELESS, AS SEEN IN HURRICANES HAZEL AND HUGO... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN EXTEND FAR INLAND, SO THOSE LIVING THROUGHOUT THE AREA SHOULD TAKE THE THREAT OF FLYING DEBRIS AND FALLING TREES VERY SERIOUSLY. HURRICANE HUGO WHICH MADE LANDFALL NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA BATTERED CHARLOTTE... WHICH IS 175 MILES INLAND... WITH NEARLY 100 MPH GUSTS. YOU CAN PROTECT WINDOWS BY INSTALLING HURRICANE SHUDDERS OR PREPARE 5/8 PLYWOOD PANELS. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROTECT YOUR WINDOWS, BUT IT ALSO KEEPS THE WIND OUT OF YOUR HOUSE. IF THE WIND IS ABLE TO ENTER A HOUSE THROUGH A WINDOW OR DOOR, IT BECOMES MUCH EASIER FOR THE WIND TO DESTROY A HOME OR BUILDING. GARAGE DOORS ARE ALSO VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WIND AND FAIL FREQUENTLY IN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES.

THINGS YOU CAN DO BEFORE A STORM THREATENS INCLUDE ASSESSING YOUR HOMES LANDSCAPING AND ASSESS THE THREAT FROM FALLING TREES.

TRIM BACK ANY DEAD LIMBS AS WELL AS LARGE OVERHANGING LIMBS. PICK UP ALL LOOSE OBJECTS AROUND THE HOUSE INCLUDING LAWN FURNITURE, GRILLS AND POTTED PLANTS.

LASTLY HAVE A PLAN OF WHERE TO GO IF HIGH WIND THREATENS YOU. TALK WITH YOUR FAMILY AND LET EVERYONE KNOW WHERE YOUR PREDETERMINED SAFE ROOM IS IN YOUR HOME. AGAIN INTERIOR HALLWAYS, CLOSETS AND BATHROOMS ARE THE SAFEST LOCATIONS. ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND EXTERIOR DOORS.

Remember, one of the best ways to protect you, your family and your property, is to be prepared now... Before the storm strikes. Develop a disaster plan that you can have in place and ready to go before a storm affects your area.

Monday, May 22, 2006

As we saw with Hurricane "Katrina" in 2005, we all need to be prepared to survive for several days after a storm without outside help. It is a wise precaution to have a disaster supply kit and a disaster plan of action inplace before a storm strikes your area.The state of North Carolina has developed a new web site to help citizens get ready for the next natural disaster that could affect the state.

STATE UNVEILS NEW WEBSITE TO HELP CITIZENS PREPARE FOR EMERGENCIESPersonal Preparedness is the Focus as the 2006 Hurricane Season Approaches

RALEIGH – As North Carolina prepares for the 2006 hurricane season, the state today kicked off a public awareness campaign aimed at getting people to take personal responsibility for themselves and their families in emergency situations. The campaign features a new website – ReadyNC.org – that includes information on how to prepare for any type of emergency as well as information on what type of emergencies occur in North Carolina.

The ReadyNC.org website includes links on such things as emergency planning for families, seniors, the disabled and pets; first aid; home safety; power outages; how to evacuate and shelter-in-place; and where people can go for local assistance and volunteer opportunities. The site also includes information on the types of severe weather that impact North Carolina, as well as tips for dealing with terrorism, radiation and contagious diseases. The pages include links to other sources of information at the federal, state and local levels. The website will be translated into Spanish and available at ListoNC.org – which is ReadyNC.org in Spanish – early this summer.

A recent Elon University poll found that 57 percent of the residents in North Carolina, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida said they and their families have done nothing to get ready for the 2006 hurricane season. Only 18 percent of those polled said they were assembling an emergency kit.

“It’s hard to believe that after Hurricanes Fran, Floyd, Isabel, Frances, Ivan and some of the terrible winter storms we’ve had that so many people would not have taken some very simple precautions to be ready,” said Doug Hoell, Director of N.C. Emergency Management. “Our state has an excellent emergency response system and our partners at the county emergency management agencies will do everything they can to help in an emergency, but the fact is that people may have to take care of themselves for the first 48-to-72 hours after a disaster.”

The ReadyNC.org website will be advertised on a series of billboards (JPEG attached) across the state beginning in June that read “Got bottled water? Canned food? Evacuation plan? Prepare Now!” The campaign logo is an outline of the state with the words “Make a Plan, Build a Kit, Be Involved – ReadyNC.org.” The phrases are also part of the website and direct readers to which portions of the website will help them with emergency planning, building an emergency supplies kit, and seeking out volunteer opportunities and local assistance.

The campaign is being paid for with U.S. Homeland Security grant funds assigned to the N.C. Citizen Corps program. Citizen Corps is a network of state, local and tribal councils whose mission is to encourage every citizen to participate in making communities better prepared to respond to emergencies through education, training, and volunteer service.

CCPS and Citizen Corps are working with a committee of the N.C. Emergency Management Association (NCEMA) to enhance public education efforts using the ReadyNC.org website as a basis for expansion. The groups hope to work with private industry, amateur and professional sport teams and personalities, non-profit organizations, and other government agencies to carry the preparedness message throughout the state.

Governor Easley has declared May 21-27 Hurricane Preparedness Week in North Carolina in conjunction with the national recognition. Easley issued a press release last week urging citizens to prepare now for what is expected to be a busy season.

“Unfortunately, North Carolina is subject to bad weather all year round,” said Emergency Management Director Hoell. “It’s tornado season now, hurricane season is coming, and winter follows that. People should enjoy all the beauty that North Carolina has to offer, but we have to be ready for the storms that we know are going to happen.”

NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has released it's forecast for the upcoming 2006 Atlantic Tropical Season. Their forecast continues to look at the possibility of another above average storm season for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here are the forecast numbers from NOAA:

"13 to 16 Tropical Storms" developing

with "8 to 10 becoming Hurricanes"

"4 to 6 Major Hurricanes"-a major hurricane is a storm that is classified as category 3 of higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. A Category 3 storm has winds of at least 111 mph.

Here is the actually forecast statement from NOAA:

NOAA PREDICTS VERY ACTIVE 2006 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Residents in Hurricane Prone Areas Urged to Make Preparations

The Commerce Departments National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration today announced to America and its neighbors throughout the north Atlantic region that a very active hurricane season is looming, and encouraged individuals to make preparations to better protect their lives and livelihoods. May 21-27 is National Hurricane Preparedness Week.

During a news conference at NOAAs National Hurricane Center, Deputy Secretary of Commerce David A. Sampson noted, "Preparation is the key message that President Bush wants to convey during National Hurricane Preparedness Week. The impact from these storms extends well beyond coastal areas so it is vital that residents in hurricane prone areas get ready in advance of the hurricane season.

For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

On average, the north Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. In 2005, the Atlantic hurricane season contained a record 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. Seven of these hurricanes were considered major, of which a record four hit the United States. Although NOAA is not forecasting a repeat of last year's season, the potential for hurricanes striking the U.S. is high, added Lautenbacher.

Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are the factors that collectively will favor the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's building cloud structure.

This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995. Since then, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two below-normal seasons during the El Nino years of 1997 and 2002.

With neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions expected across the equatorial Pacific during the next three to six months, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center scientists say that neither El Nino nor La Nina will likely be a factor in this year's hurricane season.

Whether we face an active hurricane season, like this year, or a below-normal season, the crucial message for every person is the same: prepare, prepare, prepare, said Max Mayfield, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center. One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season.

The north Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. NOAA will issue a mid-season update in early August just prior to the normal August through October peak in activity.

The north Atlantic hurricane seasonal outlook is a product of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, and Hurricane Research Division. NOAA's National Hurricane Center has hurricane forecasting responsibilities for the north Atlantic as well as the east Pacific regions.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with our federal partners and more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global earth observation network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.

Remember, now is the time to start preparing for the possibility of a tropical system making landfall in North Carolina during the upcoming Hurricane season.

We continue with our coverage of Hurricane Awareness Week at News 14 Carolina with more information today from the National Weather Service in Raleigh. Today's information topic relates to tornadoes spawned by inland tropical storms and hurricanes.

WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC MON MAY 22 2006...

NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK...

THIS WEEK HAS BEEN DECLARED NORTH CAROLINA'S HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK FOR 2006. ALL WEEK LONG THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING INFORMATIVE MESSAGES TO HELP YOU PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON. EACH DAY WE WILL COVER A DIFFERENT TOPIC. TODAY WE WILL TALK ABOUT TORNADOES IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS.NEARLY ALL TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANES PRODUCE TORNADOES WHICH ADD TO THE STORMS DESTRUCTION.

IN 2004 AROUND 45 TORNADOES TOUCHED DOWN IN NORTH CAROLINA AS THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE...CHARLEY... GASTON...FRANCES AND IVAN FROM THE COAST TO THE MOUNTAINS. NO REGION OF THE STATE HAS AVOIDED TORNADOES. THREE PEOPLE DIED DURING THE 2004 TROPICAL SEASON AS A TORNADO RIPPED APART THEIR MOBILE HOME IN PENDER COUNTY DURING TROPICAL STORM BONNIE. BOTH HURRICANES FLOYD AND FRAN ALSO PRODUCED NUMEROUS TORNADOES DESTROYING SEVERAL HOMES. TORNADOES ARE TYPICALLY THE FIRST THREAT NORTH CAROLINA FACES FROM HURRICANES AS THE OUTER RAIN BANDS PUSH INLAND. THE TORNADO THREAT PRECEDES THE HURRICANE LANDFALL BY MANY HOURS. AS THE FIRST OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM THE SYSTEM MOVE INLAND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...TORNADOES USUALLY OCCUR.

MOST TORNADOES IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION OR EYE. THIS REGION OF THE STORM HAS THE MOST SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES NECESSARY FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. SINCE TROPICAL SQUALLS TYPICALLY MOVE AT 40 TO 60 MPH TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN THESE BANDS HIT QUICKLY AND WITH LITTLE WARNING. TROPICAL TORNADOES DEVELOP IN JUST A MATTER OF A FEW MINUTES AND FORECASTERS WORK DILIGENTLY TO TRACK AND ANTICIPATE WHICH CIRCULATIONS WILL BECOME TORNADIC. MOST TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER THESE WEAK TORNADOES STILL PACK WINDS OF 100 TO 120 MPH. THIS IS ENOUGH TO DEMOLISH MOBILE HOMES...DAMAGES HOUSES AND IN SOME CASES FLIP CARS OVER. NO MOBILE HOME OR MANUFACTURED HOME IS SAFE IN HURRICANE FORCE OR TORNADO WINDS. RESIDENTS IN MOBILE HOMES SHOULD EVACUATE TO A SAFER STRUCTURE WHICH MAY INCLUDE THE HOME OF ANOTHER FAMILY MEMBER OR FRIEND. IF SHELTERING IN A STURDY BUILDING... YOU WANT TO TAKE SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN A BATHROOM OR CLOSET WHEN HIGH WINDS THREATEN.

WHEN A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA YOU CAN EXPECT TORNADOES. REALIZE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CAN MAKE LANDFALL IN ANOTHER STATE OTHER THAN NORTH CAROLINA AND STILL POSE A SERIOUS TORNADO THREAT TO YOUR HOME AND FAMILY. YOU SHOULD ALWAYS MONITOR LOCAL FORECASTS PAYING ATTENTION TO TORNADO OUTLOOKS WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.

Sunday, May 21, 2006

It's about that time... time to say goodbye to the weekend and look ahead to a new work and school week. We'll start with quiet weather and temperatures a little cooler than we saw on Sunday. Highs on Sunday reached 84 in Raleigh-Durham and 87 in Fayetteville. Monday and Tuesday afternoon temperatures should only reach the mid to upper 70s.

As of this evening, it looks like the big weather story this week could be the warm up coming toward the end of the week. Right now, we are forecasting highs in the upper 80s by Friday. Some of the computer models we use to forecast are suggesting highs could reach the low 90s by the end of the week. That is several days out, and things can certainly change in the world of weather. It does look like we could feel some summer warmth as we get ready for the Memorial Day weekend. In addition to the warmth, a chance for thunderstorms are in the forecast by week's end. We'll keep you posted on with the latest forecast on News 14 Carolina as you start to make your holiday weekend plans.

You'll hear a lot of weather talk in the news this week besides just the Memorial Day forecast. Hurricane Awareness Week starts today across the country. The Atlantic hurricane season begins in just under two weeks, and now is the time to prepare. With recent hurricane seasons that have been devastating, most folks don't need a reminder of what kind of damage a hurricane can do. However, it has been a while since North Carolina has seen extensive hurricane damage first hand. Remember, hurricanes don't only affect coastal areas. They can have a big impact on inland areas bringing flooding rains, damaging winds, and even tornadoes. Gary has posted more information about Hurricane Awareness Week below, and I'm sure we'll have more information on the blog and on News 14 Carolina through the week.

This week has been declared "Hurricane Awareness Week" and everyday the National Weather Service will be covering a specific topic concerning hurricanes and their effects on North Carolina. Today's information is an overview of North Carolina's hurricane history. Though we have had many remnant's of tropical systems move across the state in the past few years. The last strong direct impact we've taken from a hurricane was Isabel in September 2003.Now is the time to start preparing for the next hurricane that could strike North Carolina.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH MAY 21 2006...

NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK...

THIS WEEK HAS BEEN DECLARED NORTH CAROLINA'S HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK FOR 2006. ALL WEEK LONG THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING INFORMATIVE MESSAGES TO HELP YOU PREPARE FOR HURRICANESEASON.EACH DAY WE WILL COVER A DIFFERENT TOPIC. TODAY WE WILL TALK ABOUT HURRICANE HISTORY AND NORTH CAROLINA. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BE A NATIVE TO NORTH CAROLINA TO KNOW THE STATE RECEIVES MORE THAN ITS SHARE OF HURRICANE IMPACTS AND DAMAGE. OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS NORTH CAROLINA HAS SEEN PRESIDENTIALLY DECLARED DISASTERS RESULTING FROM HURRICANES IN LOCATIONS FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. NO PART OF THE STATE HAS GONE UNAFFECTED FROM THESE GIANT STORMS OVER THE PAST DECADE.

EVER SINCE THE FIRST EXPEDITIONS TO ROANOKE ISLAND IN 1586 HURRICANES HAVE BEEN RECORED TO HAVE CAUSED EXPENSIVE DAMAGE TO THE STATE. RELIABLE TRACKING AND CLASSIFICATIONS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS DID NOT BEGIN UNTIL NEARLY 300 YEARS LATER IN 1886. SINCE THAT TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NEARLY 1000 TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO. NEARLY 20 PERCENT OF ALL THESE TROPICAL SYSTEMS PASSED WITH IN AT LEAST 300 MILES OF NORTH CAROLINA.

STATICALLY THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE A DIRECT LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEM ONCE EVERY 4 YEARS. HOWEVER WHEN LOOKING AT STATISTICS FOR THE REST OF THE STATE...NORTH CAROLINA FEELS THE IMPACT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM EVERY ONE AND A YEARS. THIS WAS THE CASE LAST YEAR WHEN DEADLY FLOODS FROM HURRICANES IVAN AND FRANCES STRUCK THE MOUNTAINS. NORTH CAROLINAS UNIQUE GEOGRAPHY WITH RESPECT TO ITS COASTLINE AND THE WAY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE PROTRUDES AND CURVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MAKE THE AREA A FAVORABLE TARGET FOR HURRICANES.

RESIDENTS IN NORTH CAROLINA LIVING FROM RALEIGH EAST AS AS FAR OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS THE FLORIDA COAST AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS MAKES CAPE HATTERAS THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM LANDFALLS.

SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT DATING BACK TO 1806, AROUND 60 TROPICAL SYSTEMS HAVE MADE DIRECT LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. EVEN MORE DISTURBING IS THE FACT AROUND 90 TROPICAL SYSTEMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND AFFECTED THE STATE WITHOUT ACTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG OUR COAST. THESE TYPE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY MAKE LANDFALL FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BRING FLOODING RAINS AND TORNADOES TO THE AREA. THE MOST ACTIVE MONTHS FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER. HURRICANE LANDFALLS AND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN FELT AS EARLY AS LATE JUNE AND AS LATE AS MID NOVEMBER...HOWEVER MOST TROPICAL ACTIVITY OCCURS IN A SIX WEEK PERIOD FROM MID AUGUST TO LATE SEPTEMBER. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL YEARS WHERE MULTIPLE HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS HAVE HIT THE STATE ALL WITHIN WEEKS OF EACH OTHER.

YEARS WHERE NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN HIT BY MORE THAN ONE TROPICAL SYSTEM INCLUDE...

1842189919331954 (CAROL...EDNA AND HAZEL)1955 (CONNIE...DIANE AND IONE)1971 (DORIA AND GINGER)1996 (ARTHUR...BERTHA AND FRAN)1999 (DENNIS AND FLOYD)

HURRICANE HAZEL REMAINS THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE TO EVER MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA. HAZEL WAS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL WITH WINDS OF 144 MPH.

SINCE THAT TIME HURRICANE FLOYD, IN1999, BECAME THE COSTLIEST HURRICANE IN NORTH CAROLINA HISTORY. SIXTY-SIX COUNTIES WERE PRESIDENTIALLY DECLARED DISASTER AREAS FOLLOWING FLOYD . TOTAL STORM LOSSES EXCEEDED SIX BILLION DOLLARS.

HURRICANE FRAN...THE SECOND COSTLIEST HURRICANE IN STATE HISTORY...WAS THE LAST HURRICANE TO SEVERELY IMPACT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

You're looking at the 7am Southeastern U.S. Temperature/Dew Point map from the SPC Hourly Analysis website. If you want to check out this neat site click here. This map is helping out with the forecast for Sunday afternoon. You'll notice the green lines in the Deep South which indicate areas of equal moisture. The further south you look the higher the numbers get and the more moisture is available- which in turn can lead to the development to showers and storms.

In Northwestern and Central North Carolina there is an absence of these green lines. Our air is drier here and that's good news for Sunday. There is a lack of moisture as of this morning which will eventually lead to a dry, but sunny and warm afternoon. I expect storms to develop once again in Tennessee and move southeastward. Today, however, I believe these storms will remain south of the Sandhills and cause problems in Tennessee, Georgia and South Carolina as this same patch of dry air pushes south into the Sandhills through the afternoon.

Now that we've got the weather covered for Sunday I'm left to think about Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro and his possble life threatening injury at the Preakness Stakes. Okay, so I'm an animal lover and it felt like a punch in the stomach to see this horse pull up seriously hurt. **Background story follows*** It was a little more than two weeks ago when I was standing at the rails of Churchill Downs watching many of the Derby contenders warm up on Thursday before the big day. Of all the horses I saw in morning practice Barbaro looked, worked, and acted like a well trained thoroughbred. Two days later he proved his place in Kentucky as a winner and gained a wave of fans and admirers. **Background story end***. It's just upsetting; this wasn't how the Preakness was supposed to unfold.

Okay, I am stepping back from the track talk and will keep my head in the clouds for the rest of the day. I sure hope you have a nice and pleasant Sunday.

Most of the day Saturday shaped up to be a nice one. However, we did have a few showers around daybreak and some strong storms toward the evening hours. A few of those strong storms became severe producing some hail across the region. Above, you'll see some of the photos our viewers sent to weather@news14.com. As always, thanks to everyone for sending us your storm reports. In addition to hail reports, one viewer near Holly Springs in Wake County reported a wind gust around 45mph from storms that moved through southern Wake County.

Things should quiet down during the early morning hours on Sunday. We can look forward to a pleasant end to the weekend. Highs should reach the mid 80s during the afternoon.

The radar was full of life this morning, but only for a broken band of light rain showers moving through the Carolinas. There was some lightning near Charlotte shortly before 4am, but from the Triangle to the Sandhills not a crack of thunder was heard. All of this moisture will continue to move off shore through midday and we'll start to see more sunshine this afternoon.

With 19 days crossed off the May calendar, Raleigh has recorded highs at or above 80 on five days this month (May 4, 5, 6, 11, and 18). Once we get rid of the clouds from this morning we'll make it 6 out of 20. Not that this is unusual considering our average high should be 80 beginning today. Looking down the road we're going to miss the milder temperatures from earlier in the month as a warm up is not too far away. We could be recording highs in the middle to upper 80s late next week as the persistent East Coast trough looks to relax a bit allowing for a late spring warming trend.

Don't forget about the Animal Planet Expo today! I'll use this excerpt as found in my email inbox from earlier this week. I don't think TWC will mind the cut and paste.

Time Warner Cable and News 14 Carolina are proud sponsors of the Animal Planet Expo. You won't want to miss the fun when the folks at Animal Planet join forces with our very own News 14 Carolina talent on Saturday from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. at Fred G. Bond Metro Park in Cary. Grab the entire family - yes, pets are more than welcome as long as they are on a leash - and head on down to meet News 14 Carolina's Lee Ringer, Vernon Fraley or Gary Stephenson. And that's just the beginning of all the fun you'll have at the Animal House, Bug House and Pet Den - plus much, much more.

I don't know about you, but the Bug House sounds like a good place to take the kids!

Now for the adult readers following the Preakness Stakes today in Baltimore, MD. The weather at Pimlico will be beautiful with highs in the middle to upper 70's by race time. The track should be fast, but winds a bit breezy out of the west from 12-20 mph. Barbaro looks strong, but my money would be sitting with an exacta of 6-5 boxed for the Preakness Stakes. The trifecta is up in the air, but I'll go with 6-5-8. Let's see if the racing forecast is just as good as the afternoon forecast.

Friday, May 19, 2006

Finally, the weekend is almost here! The weather should not be too bad for your weekend plans. We certainly could use a couple of nice days after another round of severe weather last night.

It was another busy day and night in the Weather on the Ones forecast center Thursday as we tried to stay one step ahead of the developing storms. We received several reports of hail and even some wind damage across portions of the News 14 Carolina viewing area. Below, is a map of severe weather reports provided by the Storms Prediction Center for May 18, 2006.

You'll notice a lot of the severe weather across the U.S. on Thursday was right here in North Carolina. The green dots represent reports of large hail. The blue dots represent wind damage. If you look close enough (you may need to click on the image to open a better view), you'll see one red dot in the state. That indicates a tornado. An eyewitness reported a brief tornado touchdown around 8:45pm near La Grange in Lenoir County.

Here's a look at some selected severe weather reports in and around the News 14 Carolina viewing area --

7:50pm -- Penny size hail reported by law enforcement in Four Oaks in Johnston County

8:04pm -- Quarter size hail reported by a trained spotter 10 miles east of Smithfield in Johnston County

8:05pm -- Half dollar size hail reported by law enforcement 3 miles southwest of Princeton in Johnston County

8:06pm -- Penny size hail reported by law enforcement one mile southeast of Princeton in Johnston County

8:06pm -- Penny size hail reported by law enforcement 3 miles southeast of Princeton in Wayne County

8:07pm -- Quarter size hail reported by a trained spotter in Princeton in Johnston County

8:10pm -- Golf ball size hail reported by law enforcement in Princeton in Johnston County

8:11pm -- Penny to nickel size hail reported by law enforcement in downtown Princeton in Johnston County

8:12pm -- Penny size hail reported by a trained spotter in the Rosewood area of Wayne County

8:25pm -- Dime size hail reported by a trained spotter in Goldsboro

8:30pm -- Penny size hail reported by a trained spotter in Pikeville in Wayne County

8:40pm -- Law enforcement reported trees down near Mount Olive in Wayne County

So how have recent rains helped with our drought situation across the state? There is some good news on that front. Take a look at the latest drought map released yesterday --

The yellow color represents areas considered to be "abnormally dry." The light brownish color represents a moderate drought, and the sliver of darker brown you see represents a severe drought. If you remember back a few weeks ago, parts of central North Carolina were under a severe drought. That was dropped a couple of weeks ago, and this latest drought update has slightly shrunk the size of the moderate drought. If we could only continue to see a round of rain (without the severe weather!) every several days, we could continue making a dent in the drought. You can read more about the latest drought update by visiting www.ncdrought.org

Let me wrap things up for this post by looking ahead to the weekend. We do stand a chance to pick up some showers and even a few thunderstorms very late Friday night and early Saturday morning. As of early this afternoon, most indications show that most of this rain should move out of region shortly after daybreak Saturday. That will give way to partly cloudy skies by mid-morning and highs reaching near 80 in the afternoon. Of course, we'll keep you posted of any changes to that forecast with Weather on the Ones.

If you're looking for something to do this weekend, Gary has some great ideas in the post below. If your Saturday plans bring you to the Animal Planet Expo tomorrow in Cary, stop by and say hello!

Thursday, May 18, 2006

We've got a couple of events you might be interested in attending with the good weather we're expecting across the area. The first is the Animal Planet Expo at Bond Metro Park in Cary. It will run from 10 Saturday morning until 5 in the afternoon. I've included the link to check out the scheduled activities for the event. Be sure to stop by the Time Warner/News 14 Carolina booth while you're there and say hello to Lee Ringer, Vernon Fraley and yours truly.

And, of course, the pilot in me cannot let you forget about the Mid Atlantic Fly-In at the Lumberton Airport. The activities for this air show "takeoff" (pardon the pun) on Friday and continue through the weekend.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are rumbling across parts of central North Carolina as I write this blog. Some of those storms have been on the strong side with a few reports of hail. We had several reports of hail up to the size of pennies in the Cary area of Wake County. The pictures above were sent to us by a viewer in the Preston area of Cary. Trained spotters also reported hail just smaller than the size of dimes near Jordan Lake in Chatham County.

Most of this thunderstorm activity should diminish later in the evening. We'll keep you posted in the Weather on the Ones forecast center.

If you captured weather photos and would like to share them with us, you can e-mail us at weather@news14.com.

A low freezing level combined with a few thunderstorms could cause a few areas to see some small hail today. What does the "freezing level" have to do with it? Well, the lower the 32 degree mark is as you go up in the atmosphere, the easier it is for a thunderstorm to reach this level and carry raindrops into it that could freeze and become hail stones. Will this event be as bad as Sunday's severe weather? We don't think so. The atmosphere won't be quite as unstable as it was on Sunday. But in any case, we'll be watching the radar and you be watching News 14 Carolina. If storms start rolling, we'll start rolling. And if you get hail at your house be sure to fire us the pictures.Keep and eye to the sky.Gary

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Allow me to join the rest of the weather team in welcoming you to our new Weather on the Ones blog! If you ever have any ideas on something you would like to see in our blog or just have a weather question, you can always e-mail us at weather@news14.com

Speaking of e-mail, our inboxes were almost overloaded with photos from Sunday's storm. Thanks to everyone who sent in their pictures. We were able to show a few on television, and I've uploaded several more in a blog post you will find below this one. Unfortunately, we were not able to display every picture we received -- just not enough time in the day to get every one uploaded! Thanks again to everyone who sent in their photos, and feel free to e-mail us your photos anytime.

Now, looking ahead to the rest of the week... we do stand the chance to see a few isolated showers or thunderstorms the next couple of afternoons. These will be nothing like Sunday's severe storms. Any showers that develop will be hit or miss. In fact, there may be many neighborhoods that totally miss out on any rainfall.

If you are making weekend plans, Saturday should shape up to be a pleasant day with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Sunday could be somewhat of different story. We'll be keeping a close eye on a backdoor front that will try to slip into North Carolina late Sunday into Monday. There is some uncertainty right now as to the timing of this front and exactly how much rain it could bring with it. We'll keep you posted!

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service urge Americans to "Be Air Aware" during Air Quality Awareness Week, May 15 - 19, 2006.

Talk about a nice refreshing start to the day. Here are some of the morning's lows from around the state. Beginnings like this have always reminded me to appreciate spring time. I don't know about you, but with June and July on the way we certainly won't have too many more cool starts to enjoy.

Raleigh: 47

Fayetteville: 52

Rocky Mt-Wilson: 48

Lumberton: 49

Greensboro: 49

Winston-Salem 46

The forecast is on track for warming temperatures this afternoon with the chance of an isolated shower or a thunderstorm. I believe most spots will range from the upper 70's to low 80's.

A F1 TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN 6 MILES EAST OF SANFORD...OR ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF BROADWAY...AT APPROXIMATELY758 PM EDT MAY 14. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS MINOR...HOWEVERTHERE WAS SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE FROM UPROOTED AND SNAPPEDTREES BEGINNING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SALEM CHURCH ROADAND DALRYMPLE FARM ROAD...CONTINUING FOR APPROXIMATELY ONEHALF MILE EAST THROUGH A HEAVILY WOODED AREA JUST SOUTHWESTOF COPELAND ROAD. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 MPH WITH PATHDAMAGE ONE HALF MILE LONG AND 100 YARDS WIDE.

INITIAL DAMAGE BEGAN AT APPROXIMATELY 750 PM EDT IN THE CITYLIMITS OF SANFORD WHERE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAUSED MINOR ROOFDAMAGE TO AN OLD WAREHOUSE AT THE INTERSECTION OF THIRD ANDCOURTLAND DRIVE. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...COUNTY HIGHWAY PATROLMENSPOTTED A FUNNEL CLOUD MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ALONG HIGHWAY 42.RESIDENTS ALONG HIGHWAY 42 AND AVENTS FERRY CONFIRMED THEFUNNEL CLOUD REPORT...NOTING A DISTINCT HOWLING SOUND AND VERYSTRONG WINDS. THE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WERE ESTIMATEDAT 60 TO 75 MPH...SNAPPING SMALL TREES ON ADJACENT NEARBYPROPERTY.

AT 758 PM EDT...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SALEM CHURCH ROADAND DALRYMPLE FARM ROAD...SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE BEGAN WITHNUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED...MINOR DAMAGE TO A HOME...ANDA BARN DESTROYED. THE DAMAGE CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST THROUGHA HEAVILY WOODED FOREST FOR APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF MILE.

IT IS BELIEVED THAT DURING THIS ONE HALF MILE PATH...THETORNADO MADE SEVERAL BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS...WHERE THERE WEREOBVIOUS SIGNS OF DESTRUCTION WITH DOWNED TREES RESTED INVARIOUS DIRECTIONS. THE DAMAGE CLIMAXED IN THE WOODED FORESTWHERE WINDS WHERE ESTIMATED AT 100 MPH.

We've had a stormy couple of days across North Carolina and it was nice to see a calm weather day on Tuesday. Keep in mind as we round out the "official" severe weather season, we are a couple of weeks away from the 2006 Atlantic Tropical season. Last year was relatively quiet for tropical systems in North Carolina with only one storm, Ophelia, effecting the state. This year's forecast is for another above average season and there are some indications that we might be looking at a greater chance for east coast storms this season. I guess only time will tell.

Next week has been declared National Hurricane Awareness Week. This is the time to start making long range plans to prepare for the possibility of a land falling tropical system in North Carolina. And remember, if you're new to the area, hurricanes can effect well into the state. Hurricanes Fran and Hazel proved this creating damage well inland from the coast.

Stormtrack Doppler Radar is set on a wide view this afternoon while we get a break from showers and storms in Central and Eastern North Carolina. You have to look all the way back to Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky before you run in to any rain and thunder.

The same spinning low that we've been talking about at length since late last week is finally showing signs of slowly pulling out, but not before it sends another round of afternoon showers and storms in our direction for Wednesday.

So why have we been seeing clouds and storms the past few days? This same low is mainly just a pocket of colder air in the mid and upper atmosphere. When air at ground level is warmed, namely by sunshine, it rises. This warmer air is going to keep rising through the cooler pocket while forming clouds and eventually producing rain and thunderstorms. Once we lose daytime heating, the clouds go away and our skies clear out just in time to do it all over again the next day.

So, the chance for showers and a few storms will hang around at least through Friday as the slow low continues to move away.

As for temperatures, we've been a bit below average the past couple days. Today we reached 72 in both Raleigh and Fayetteville. For the rest of the week we'll stay right around the average of 79 for Raleigh in mid May. Expect us to be pushing the upper 70's to low 80's by Friday.

Right now a front is likely to push through Friday ending the rain late thus making the weekend pleasant, but any timing issues will need to be addressed. Some computer models want to slow this front and keep it close to the Carolinas.

Next Week: We could be in for a big warm up down the road as the jet stream is looking to make a push to the north. If this is the case then we'll be seeing the thermometer easily in the mid to upper 80's by May 25th.

Update: The National Weather Service has confirmed a tornado from the Mother's Day Event in North Carolina. An F1 tornado touched down 2 miles north of Broadway in Lee County and remained on the ground for at least a half mile. Winds were estimated to be 100 miles per hour! You can read about the update here in this report.

As expected, Mother's Day was stormy across the Carolinas. Clusters of storms dumped heavy rain and golf ball size hail during the afternoon on Sunday. Damaging winds along with a couple of tornadoes were reported to have touched down in Wake and Lee Counties. The Forecast Center was buzzing with activity as Gary Stephenson, Lee Ringer, and I were covering every angle to stay ahead of the advancing storms.

At home you were no doubt watching us use Stormtracker Doppler Radar to monitor the movement of each storm, but off camera there was a lot going on. New warnings were being issued every few minutes during the height of the activity, along with damage reports confirming the severity of these storms. It is our commitment to pass this information to you as accurately and as quickly as possible. That's the benefit of going wall to wall on News 14 Carolina for severe weather coverage; we can uphold that commitment to you.

Our friends at the National Weather Service in Raleigh have compiled some information about the entire event. You can view the details of this preliminary report by clicking here. (May 14, Event Summary)

Many Weather on the Ones watchers sent in their personal photos and video via email. This information was key to helping us verify the same storms we were following on radar. Our inbox was flooded with more than 85 emails containing pictures. In fact, the above picture was sent by Julia Faturova from Wake County. We certainly appreciate all the help from you at home. If you ever have a photo you'd like to send you can reach us at weather@news14.com, but keep in mind our mission is your safety. Never put yourself in a dangerous situation.

So, I bid you welcome to the Weather on the Ones Blog. I'm looking forward to reaching out to you in a new, more hip way. I'll update as often as I can and bring you some of the weather stories not mentioned on the air.