931
FXUS64 KMAF 311713
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough making landfall in srn Sonora,
and advecting a thick canopy of CS over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico. According to the models, convection should be
developing over the Presidio Valley/Marfa Plateau right now, but
CS is hindering heating/mixing/instability. For now, VFR
conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Forecast soundings suggest
a cu field developing shortly, w/bases 7-9 kft AGL, and
redeveloping near the end of the forecast period NE zones. We`ll
hold off on a mention of convectionattm due to CS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See 12z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours. Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ftAGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later
today there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr
field is depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOFsrn Pecos/nrn
Brewster where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of
low pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined leetrof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermalridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLPgradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will
still be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for
the Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.
FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire WxWatch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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