Four Downs: AFC West

by Jeff Bathurst

Denver Broncos

"I don't know if any team has lost a player that they really wanted to keep. Any time you look at players who change teams, they're always guys their old team really didn't want to keep." -- John Madden, quoted in Denver Post.

Madden's quote was part of a story breaking down the NFL running back carousel this spring, and how the Broncos got "the best of the eight" present or former 1,000-yard rushers who changed teams. That, of course, is Travis Henry, whom they signed to a five-year contract and a guaranteed $12 million.

This is part of "newspaper math," which I picked up from 12 years working at a daily paper where "analysis" went no further than the Triple Crown stats in baseball and yardage totals in the NFL. It's based on reaching the lowest common denominator of newspaper reader. So, yes, as the story says, Henry was the best of the eight starters who switched teams -- based on last season's rushing yards. But can't we get any deeper than that?

Before quoting DVOA chapter and verse, there is the small matter that before Henry gained 1,211 yards on 270 carries last season, he had started six games total (out of 20 played) in 2004 and 2005, and carried the ball a total of 182 times.

Looking at DPAR and DVOA numbers for the eight backs studied by the Denver Post, Henry ranks in the middle of the pack, right around ... Tatum Bell, who was exiled to Detroit in the Dre' Bly trade.

Thomas Jones (11th in DPAR among running backs) and Ahman Green (16) were clearly the top two based on 2006 numbers, followed by Willis McGahee (24) and then Henry and Bell. Henry held the edge in DPAR, Bell in DVOA. Jamal Lewis, Dominic Rhodes, and Reuben Droughns brought up the rear in this ranking.

"I thought it was very interesting to have that many running backs trading teams. I don't know if that's the first time that ever happened, but I was surprised myself. We were all pretty good running backs. I was like, 'What do they want?'" -- Henry.

Yeah, and Joe Carter drove in 100 runs a year, too, with an OPS below league average. Keep giving one guy the ball and he will get the RBIs/yards/whatever. But let's not forget the five-day forecast, too ...

"He's going to be able to play in that weather, too," Kansas City coach Herm Edwards said. "He's played outside in bad elements." See? It's official. Henry good.

Free Agent (and Other) Moves

Countering the general approval of the Broncos' trade for Dre' Bly -- teaming with Champ Bailey and replacing the tragically departed Darrent Williams -- is an anonymously sourced report in Pro Football Weekly denigrating Bly's playmaking ability. "Come third down, I'd be going right at him," one scout said.

The Giants seemed ready to make a trade for Broncos linebacker Al Wilson, but it fell through because of concerns about his neck. Because of his high salary, the team probably will still say goodbye to Wilson, either trading him somewhere else or releasing him soon. And a trade for defensive tackle Dan Wilkinson from Miami was voided when Big Daddy went AWOL and never showed up for his physical.

Tight end Daniel Graham was the big-ticket signing whose DPAR and DVOA were both worse than incumbent Tony Scheffler. But that's not why Graham got $15 million guaranteed; he got that money because he can block, and because salaries this off-season were insane. Jake Plummer, traded to Tampa Bay and then the retirement home, was replaced as a backup by Patrick Ramsey.

And then there was speculation Denver will trade for Miami middle linebacker Zach Thomas. In an off-season in which the Broncos have been super-aggressive, anything could happen.

Draft Needs

Wide receiver and safety are two positions at which Denver needs help, but the mock drafts out on the Web now have overwhelmingly assigned the Broncos defensive line help. Losing out on Wilkinson and saying goodbye to Courtney Brown and Michael Myers -- plus new defensive coordinator Jim Bates' likely blitzing scheme -- makes this a good possibility.

Some names we've seen out there: Purdue's Anthony Spencer, Nebraska's Adam Carriker, Florida's Jarvis Moss, Georgia's Charles Johnson, and Tennessee's Justin Harrell. Only Harrell is listed as a defensive tackle -- the rest are ends -- and the standouts are Carriker, at 6-foot-6 and 292 pounds the Big Twelve defensive lineman of the year, and Spencer (6-3, 266), who had 10.5 sacks and 26.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage last season. Carriker is compared to Richard Seymour by NFL Draft Scout.com, and Spencer to ex-Boilermaker Shaun Phillips. Good company.

Kansas City Chiefs

Now THAT'S analysis! The Kansas City Star reported on April 3 that the Chiefs' first two preseason opponents are Cleveland and Miami -- two of the very teams that are trying to acquire quarterback Trent Green. Yes, that's right, we could be seeing an exhibition grudge match in Week 1 of the preseason! Or maybe Green will play one series and then get off the field. Eh, you do what you can with hyping the preseason schedule.

But seriously, Green remains a Chief and showed up for the team's off-season workout program, which started Monday. "That's what you love about the guy. He's a pro ... Until something happens, he's a Chief," Edwards said.

The team is still said to be negotiating with Miami, Detroit, and Cleveland, but these conversations are taking longer than the Britain-Iran talks lasted. The Chiefs are reportedly looking for first-day draft picks, which might be a bit much for a 37-year-old quarterback coming off a bad 2006 (22d in DPAR, 21st in DVOA), in range with guys like Kurt Warner and Jason Campbell. Then again, he was a top-10 quarterback as recently as 2005.

Even should Damon Huard take over at quarterback, the Chiefs have offensive holes to be filled, especially if they want to avoid running Larry Johnson into the ground. Kansas City ranked fourth in DVOA in third-and-short situations last season but 28th in third-and-long. A big No. 1 receiver and a complement to Johnson should still be priorities.

Free Agent Moves

Bringing in linebackers Donnie Edwards (a reunion) and Napoleon Harris shored up the defense and tried to paper over the mistake that was Kendrell Bell two years ago. Defensive end Alfonso Boone, another new acquisition, also has experience playing in a Cover-2 defense in Chicago. The linebacker moves meant that leading tackler Kawika Mitchell was free to go, and he signed with the Giants, where he will move to more of an outside role.

More bad news for an AFC West team from Pro Football Weekly: Signing Miami left tackle Damion McIntosh is no panacea as a replacement for Jordan Black. Cue anonymous scout: "I won't say it's a downgrade, but by no means should we look at this as an upgrade ... He's not a mauler by any means. Jordan Black was at least a little more athletic." Those are fighting words, McIntosh! In McIntosh's defense, Miami always scored better by FO's offensive line statistics when he was in the lineup at left tackle instead of L.J. Shelton.

And a hardy welcome back to safety Jon McGraw, who played for Herm Edwards' Jets and also went to Kansas State.

Draft Needs

As noted above, wide receiver remains a priority for the Chiefs, along with bringing in depth and youth on the offensive line and the defensive backfield and bulking up at defensive tackle.

A quick perusal of the mocks available on the Web, however, finds amazing agreement (for a team picking 23rd, anyway) on Louisiana State WR Dwayne Bowe as the Chiefs' guy. USC WR Dwayne Jarrett also got a few mentions, as did CB Eric Wright of UNLV, who would be a stretch.

So how about Bowe: Listed at 6-2, 217 pounds by the NFL, he caught 18 TD passes in his career from JaMarcus Russell, who is likely the top pick. He hauled in 65 passes for 12 TDs in 2006, and as a sophomore and junior 63 of the 80 passes Bowe caught went for first downs.

"Long strider ... physical player ... not afraid to go over the middle" is how he is described. According to NFL Draft Scout.com, he compares to 49ers WR Arnaz Battle in his strength.

Oakland Raiders

It's been a while: This year's draft will be the first time that the Raiders have had the top pick since 1962, when they picked quarterback Roman Gabriel No. 1 overall in the AFL draft. Gabriel never played for them, signing instead with the Los Angeles Rams. So it's a safe bet that Oakland is at least one step ahead of the '62 squad. Picking between JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, and Calvin Johnson, though, is still not settled. New offensive coordinator Greg Knapp had hoped to acquire quarterbackMatt Schaub from Atlanta, which would have been a clear sign that the team was leaning toward Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson as the top pick.

A lesser factor, but maybe bigger in the eyes of the media, is what happens to Randy Moss. A potential trade of Moss could net some kind of veteran quarterback, but not someone the caliber of a Russell or a Quinn, and the lack of Moss alone would not necessarily mean the team would be forced into picking Johnson.

There have been late rumblings that Quinn is more "NFL ready" than Russell, who dropped as low as 20th on Pete Prisco's draft rankings, but you hear Russell's name more often than not in Raiders draft talk.

But let's hear about Moss more, because it's so much fun. "I saw a player at times who made some very aborted plays and was not playing to the standard I'd want," new coach Lane Kiffin said, before retreating. "But I wasn't there, and I won't make a judgment on that. I think he was very frustrated, going through some games where he had two balls thrown to him in 65 plays, and you're behind.

"Sometimes, that's not bad (being frustrated). You get a player who is not frustrated, and you wonder if he's competitive."

Here's a better Kiffin quote, on Al Davis: "I wasn't going to say what he wanted to hear. If he wanted to hire me for that, I didn't want the job. I think that had a lot to do with me getting the job."

Free Agent Moves

Oakland ended up the "winner" of the Dominic Rhodes sweepstakes, in which the Super Bowl star got big bucks to bolster a running back corps that stank just like everything else last season. We won't mention that for the season Rhodes ranked 46th in DPAR and DVOA, just behind ... Justin Fargas and LaMont Jordan. Oh, wait, we just did mention it. There's no Joseph Addai here for Rhodes to team with, and there's certainly no Jeff Saturday in front of him.

An underlooked facet of the Raiders' off-season moves was the hiring of six assistant coaches who will be making their debuts in the NFL, working of course for the youngest coach in the league, 31-year-old Kiffin. The last two to be hired were wide receivers coach Charles Coe -- straight out of Alabama State -- and offensive quality control coach Adam Henry, who had been serving as offensive coordinator at McNeese State.

"I wasn't going to hire somebody just because they had a resume that said they'd done this or that," Kiffin said, and he's obviously not lying. "Are they going to come here to win or are they going to come here to put another year in the NFL because they're in Year 22 and it's their eighth job? I wanted guys who wanted to be here and do what it takes to win and wanted to be here every day."

The Raiders also re-signed guard Corey Hulsey but have not made any major outside moves to an offensive line that was 29th in Adjusted Line Yards and dead last in pass protection, yielding 72 sacks.

There were rumblings that the Raiders have been in contact with David Carr, but if you were going to find a free-agent quarterback, you could do a lot worse than Tim Rattay, who somehow is still out there.

Draft Needs

As detailed before, Johnson is universally listed as the top draft prospect this year, but it's hard to pass up a potential franchise quarterback. Taking Michigan State's Drew Stanton in the second round might happen if Johnson ends up being the No. 1 pick.
It may be simplistic, but here are NFL Draft Scout.com's "Compares To" for each:

JaMarcus Russell = Daunte Culpepper.

Brady Quinn = Tom Brady.

Calvin Johnson = Larry Fitzgerald.

San Diego Chargers

What to do with restricted free agent RB Michael Turner is probably the biggest potential decision facing San Diego at this point. They could decide to keep him, of course, but then they risk losing him in a year for nothing in return. The Chargers tendered him a $2.35 million offer for 2007, which means they would get back first- and third-round draft picks if another team were to sign him.

Turner, who averaged 6.3 yards per carry backing up LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and outpaced all running backs with a 46.7% DVOA in limited action, has seen his stock rise dramatically in the off-season. On April 2, Turner met with Tennessee and took a physical, and the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that talks have begun between the Titans and agent Bus Cook, and the Chargers.

The newspaper says the team might be willing to take a first this year and a third next year, or vice versa, for Turner, and that Buffalo and Dallas have also been interested -- but not Green Bay, as has been reported elsewhere. Turner becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2007 season.

As for new coach Norv Turner, a 14-2 season in 2006 doesn't mean the Chargers have peaked. "I look at them and I say, 'Hey, these guys can get a lot better,'" Turner said at the NFL meetings. "These are some guys who are going to play 10 more years. I think you take advantage of the youth and excitement and energy that this team has. That's going to be my big emphasis."

Turner mentioned two wide receivers, Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd, as key cogs for the team heading into the future. Jackson ranked 55th in DVOA -- around guys like Drew Bennett and Keyshawn Johnson -- and Floyd, who was injured, is looking to improve.

And as for the postseason, the bane of Marty Schottenheimer's existence? Turner said: "When you're playing one of the three or four best defensive teams in the league, which I assume you will be in the postseason, do you still play at a high level? Do you still do you things you do against a team ranked 25th in defense?"

Free Agent Moves

The Chargers' biggest move was to re-sign offensive lineman Kris Dielman, part of the No. 1 run-blocking unit in the league (they were ninth in pass protection). Dielman got $17 million guaranteed as part of a six-year contract worth potentially $39 million.
Of course, the biggest moves were in coaching, with Schottenheimer gone, as well as his top two lieutenants, Cam Cameron (Miami) and Wade Phillips (Dallas).

The team signed no free agents from other teams, while losing linebacker Donnie Edwards to the Chiefs, wideout Az Hakim to Miami, and tight end Ryan Krause to Cleveland. Underachieving wide receiver Keenan McCardell was jettisoned, as was badboy safety Terrence Kiel and linebacker Steve Foley and tight end Aaron Shea.

Draft Needs

San Diego got two compensatory draft picks for the upcoming draft -- a third-rounder (96th overall) and a fifth-rounder (172) -- as compensation for free agents Drew Brees, Reche Caldwell, Justin Peelle, and Ben Leber. The Chargers have eight picks, starting at No. 30, and could have more if they finally deal Michael Turner.

Among the Chargers' few needs are help at wide receiver and perhaps on the offensive line. Visiting the different mock drafts, there is little consensus, probably befitting a team picking 30th and subject to what 29 other teams do.

The top players mentioned include wide receivers such as Tennessee's Robert Meachem (twice), USC's Dwayne Jarrett, and Ohio State's Ted Ginn Jr., and safeties such as Texas' Michael Griffin and Miami's Brandon Meriweather. Somehow nabbing a top receiver would only enhance the Chargers' Super Bowl hopes.

Meachem is not listed for some reason, but just for fun, NFLDraftScout.com's "Compares To" for the other guys:

Jarrett = Keyshawn Johnson.

Ginn = Dante Hall.

Griffin = Mike Minter.

Meriwether = Ed Reed.

Coming this weekend: AFC East by Bill Barnwell.

FO thanks Jeff Bathurst, a former copy editor at the sports desk of the Philadelphia Inquirer, for helping us out with Four Downs this off-season.

Posted by: Guest on 05 Apr 2007

71 comments, Last at
14 Apr 2007, 4:07pm by
HUMPHREY

Comments

1

by pawnking (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 1:03pm

Is it just me, or does the thought of picking a WR #1 overall when there are 2 potential franchise QBs make little sense?

2

by dryheat (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 1:24pm

It makes great sense if you acquire a proven (not necessarily great) quarterback in FA or trade.

The key word in "potential franchise QB" is "potential". I'm not convinced that Russel or Quinn are going to be franchise QBs and that Drew Stanton and John Beck won't be. I think the "bust factor" for Calvin Johnson is infinitessimal. If I'm calling the shots, I take CJ number one, Stanton or Beck with another first day pick, and signing a guy like Tim Rattay or David Carr or try to trade for Plummer. I still think Andrew Walter could be a good QB if he could get a modicum of protection. I doubt Quinn or Russell will fare any better being thrown to the wolves as green as they are.

3

by Joe T. (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 1:34pm

IMO Oakland ought to swap down with Cleveland. Cleveland acts like they are sold on Brady Quinn, let them draft him and tender him first overall pick money. Detroit (at #2) is not going to draft a QB or WR (probably, but Millen could surprise us with his ignorance). Then Oakland @ #3 could take Russell or Johnson and pay them a little less, so they'd save some $$$ by trading down.

Of course, this whole scenario depends on the coin-flip between Cleveland and TB. TB is certainly a factor for Calvin Johnson.

4

by SJM (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 1:53pm

Re: 3

Why isn't Detroit going to take a QB? Do they have a good one on their roster?

5

by Starshatterer (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 2:03pm

SJM (#4 )--

I'd say John Kitna is an adequate quarterback. He was pretty good on a team with a good offense, not so good on Detroit.

But what quarterback would be good for Detroit? Until they get more useful players on both sides of the ball, Kitna's as good as anyone to take the beating involved in being the Lions' quarterback.

6

by Joe T. (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 2:04pm

#4 - Detroit could take a QB, I tend to think their interest in Brady Quinn has been feigned in order to drum up some pick-trading. I think they have more pressing needs than QB, where they have both Kitna and McCown, who are about average. Martz has taken some average QBs and made them studs (Warner & Bulger) so maybe thats in the plan with his current stable of QBs.

I'm no authority on this, but if Detroit was interested in somebody else being their QB of the future they would have drafted Matt Leinart last year and never signed McCown.

Dwayne Jarret compared to Keyshaun Johnson? Wasn't Keyshaun the guy that was saying Jarret should stay in school? Saying Jarret was a possession receiver, needs to polish up more, and won't be successful in the pros?

Brady Quinn has a quicker release than Russell, and seems to have better pre-snap reads and command of his offense while Russell appears to be able to throw the ball further.

Charlie Weiss said in 3 years Brady Quinn will be the 3rd best QB in the NFL. Now I know he's got to toot the horn of his players, but that's a pretty bold prediction.

Remember how last year Quinn was supposed to be the #1 pick THIS year? It seems like one game changed everything.

It wasn't Quinn vs Russel in the bowl game, it was Quinn vs Laundry and LSU, against Russell vs ND. Not only that but it was basically a home game for LSU.

Quinn had a pass his Jeff Semargja in the face mask early in the first quarter that SHOULD have been caught as a TD. Also remember that that Russell fumble doesn't cound in his QB rating ( and it is very Daunte fumblepepperesque).

I just think too much stock was put into the bowl game to justify Russell being the #1 QB over Quinn.

#8 - Bulger was completely unheard of before coming to the Rams. He was a 6th round pick by the Saints. Granted, he could have been a sleeper like Tom Brady, or he could be merely a product of the Rams' offensive system. Kurt Warner was dynamic with the Rams, but a serious dud everywhere else, so I tend to think he and Bulger are products of the system, but I'm not smart enough to say with any certainty.

If think the Lions intend to replicate Martz's old Rams offense and wring high productivity from less than stellar QBs.

#11: Warner, Bulger, and Trent Green have all played and suceeded in the Rams system. Green succeeded elsewhere, so that kindof busts the theory up a bit.

Warner also wasn't a "serious dud" everywhere else. Just "about average" (which, for an NFL quarterback, is good). In New York, he was replaced by Eli Manning, who's done about as well as he did. In Arizona, he was replaced by Leinart, who also did about as well as he did. That's not exactly 'serious dud' level.

Martz definitely helps quarterbacks, but Bulger's a good quarterback, just like Warner was (he's older now, yes, he's declined) and Green was.

13

by Eddo (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 2:57pm

3: A couple points:
1) The coin flip already happened. Cleveland picks 3rd, Tampa 4th.
2) In order for your plan to work, Oakland has to hope the Cleveland front office is a bunch of idiots. If Oakland were to propose that trade, the Browns would know that a) Oakland doesn't want Quinn and b) Oakland is confident the Lions won't take a quarterback. If that's the case, Quinn would still be there at pick #3 for Cleveland, and they wouldn't have to pay him #1 overall money.
Now, in the NBA, this sort of thing happens all the time. Portland fell victim to it twice last year (swapped #2-Aldridge and #4-Thomas with the Bulls, even though everyone knew Charlotte would take Morrison at #3, and that the Bulls liked Thomas more anyways; also, swapped 5-6 or 6-7 with Minnesota in a similar scenario). However, NBA front offices tend to be stupider than non-Miller-run NFL front offices.

14

by mactbone (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 3:13pm

Just wanted to add that the Lions also have Orlovsky who they're supposedly high on. They could still take a QB, but I think Kitna and Orlovsky's presence makes it unlikely.

â€œI wasnâ€™t going to hire somebody just because they had a resume that said theyâ€™d done this or that,â€? Kiffin said, and heâ€™s obviously not lying. â€œAre they going to come here to win or are they going to come here to put another year in the NFL because theyâ€™re in Year 22 and itâ€™s their eighth job? I wanted guys who wanted to be here and do what it takes to win and wanted to be here every day.â€?

I'm thinking a lot of career NFL assistant coaches had their professionalism called into question. I'm guessing a lot of old assistant coaches will relish the opportunity to prepare for Mr. Boy Genius kiffin.

11. To add on what #12 was saying, what system exactly would Bulger be a product of? Mike Martz ( he doesn't even coach there anymore)?

Bulger never being heard of might have had something to do with Bulger not playing.

A more serious scenerio is that Martz ( taught) Bulger offense and he got it. The guy is very good at timing and throwing passes to his receivers BEFORE they are open, and before their breaks.

You don't have to have a rocket arm, or quick release to do that, but it certainly adds value to an offense. I believe he finished #2 in DVOA last year.

Trent Green left the Rams to have the quietest 4,000 yard passing seasons I've ever heard of in KC.

19

by Joe T. (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 3:54pm

#12 - Thanks for mentioning Green - but I don't think he really played much for Martz, did he? He was hurt early 99, Martz first year as OC. And Green developed in Washington, not St Louis, he was a good QB before he came to the Gateway City. By Ram's offense, I mean Martz's offense.

I don't know - Warner getting benched twice for untested rookie QBs is pretty indicative of his being a dud, particularly since he was brought in as a transition starter, someone to guide the team until the rookie QBs were sufficiently developed. In both instances, the rookies were pushed into starting roles before most would consider them ready (the requisite 1 year on the bench). Thats usually a sign of desperation.

#13 - Oakland has so many needs I think they could use the #1 pick for some leverage. Lots of little intrigues are going on to make draft day completely unpredictable. Oakland could dangle the #1 pick in front of lots of teams, maybe Cleveland ought to take it to ensure their QB will still be available, in case say Oakland offers the #1 pick to Minnesota. Oakland could trade down a couple spots, and either QB might still be available if they are not particular. Its all pure speculation.

20

by Joe T. (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 3:58pm

From wiki on Trent Green:
"The next year (1999), he was slated to be the starter for the St. Louis Rams, but suffered a season-ending injury in a preseason game on a hit to the knee by Rodney Harrison. Kurt Warner took over and led the Rams to the Super Bowl XXXIV championship against the Tennessee Titans. The next year, Green started the season as a backup again. He started most of the middle of the season while Warner was out with a broken hand. The Warner/Green duo led the Rams to the highest team passing yard total in NFL history, with 5,232 net yards."

I donâ€™t know - Warner getting benched twice for untested rookie QBs is pretty indicative of his being a dud,

The Cardinals benching Warner for Leinart was because Leinart looked as good as Warner did in practice. That's not an indictment of Warner - it's praise for Leinart, who most people figured would be that good.

In both instances, the rookies were pushed into starting roles before most would consider them ready

I really disagree there. Leinart was clearly ready - most people expected him to be able to adapt to the NFL very fast, and he did.

In the earlier case (Warner vs Manning) virtually no one considered it a good idea at the time, and in retrospect, it was pretty bad. But honestly, they couldn't pass protect well enough for Warner to have enough time, so leaving Warner in there would've just been biding time until he got injured.

23

by beedubyuh (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 4:30pm

I can't wait to make a ton of money this season by teasing all my bets with "and Oakland to lose". Hee!

24

by Tim R (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 4:31pm

I've watched quite a lot of Warner in both NY and Arizona and he tends to start off playing well before collapsing after a particularly big hit or series of big hits. In New Yourk he played pretty well leading them to a 4-1 start then started fumbling like mad. In Arizona his first season went well when he wasn't injured, led the NFL in pyds/gm and set a franchise record for completion percentage and passer rating I think, and his second started well until he got hammered in the head by Will Witherspoon and following that he looked lost and there was one pick where it looked like he thought he was still in St.Louis throwing right to a Ram. By week 17 he'd recovered and played a good game against the Chargers.

It seems to me that hes a good QB thats extremely injury prone and has taken too many hits to the head.
Following arguably his best season it also seems unlikely Bulger is solely a product of the system seing as how Martz wasn't there.

I would suggest therefore that rather than Martz system making average QB's good Martz is just extremely good at evaluating overlooked talent at QB and coaching them up.

25

by Sergio (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 5:16pm

"In McIntoshâ€™s defense, Miami always scored better by FOâ€™s offensive line statistics when he was in the lineup at left tackle instead of L.J. Shelton."

That's a textbook case of damning with faint praise, people. Keep up the good work :D

26

by cjfarls (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 5:42pm

Re: ...Blyâ€™s playmaking ability. â€œCome third down, Iâ€™d be going right at him,â€? one scout said.

And how is that any different than 2006, or what would have happened had we lined-up Foxworth opposite Bailey in 2007? Frankly, I'd rather have Bly...

27

by Sundown (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 6:06pm

â€œCome third down, Iâ€™d be going right at him,â€?

It would be nice to have the context of that quote. I'd throw at Bly before Champ Bailey, too. That doesn't mean Bly sucks, just that Bailey is really, really good. And what's the significance of third down? Does the scout think Bly is better in coverage on other downs?

28

by Raiderjoe (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 6:41pm

without a doubt Jamarcus russel will have the best arm in the NFl. I would like you to tell me who this imiginary Qb is that possesses a better arm than him. I feel almost sorry for teams that try and play that cocver 2 defense against this guy. Second you want to dispute his accuracy. The guy completed in the high sixty percentage in one of the toughest football conferences.(not in a WCO offense) So I really don't know what your basing your accuracy standard on.

But Martinez couldn't help himself. JaMarcus Russell's arm is that seductive.

When it came time to create a list of plays for Russell to run in front of dozens of NFL scouts and executives last month, Martinez went with the taboo as their grand finale. Russell rolled right, and his receiver broke that way, too, before switching direction.

"JaMarcus threw it 70 yards and completed it," Martinez said. "It was unbelievable, unbelievable. You could hear this "Ahhhh" coming from all the NFL people."

He wore a mischievous grin when he described the play, still exhilarated that Russell could do something so wrong so right. In his 32 years as a coach at the College of San Mateo and endless summers tutoring quarterbacks at football camps, Martinez has worked with some of the biggest names in the business -- John Elway, future Heisman winner Gino Torretta, USC's Rob Johnson and Brady, who attended his first Martinez camp at age 13 and still calls on him for help with his mechanics. New Englanders view Martinez as something of a wizard.

But the coach has never seen anyone quite like the 21-year-old favorite to become the No. 1 pick in this month's NFL draft or done anything like the prep work that he performed for Russell.

"This thing was very good for me, it was uplifting," said Martinez, 62, who recently went into semi-retirement because three decades of nonstop coaching had worn away at his heart.

The pair worked together for two one-week training sessions and then met up again in Baton Rouge, La., for Russell's "pro day," the NFL draft's equivalent of walking the red carpet. Hired by Russell's agents, Martinez became, for want of a better term, the quarterback's throwing stylist.

At Athletes' Performance, a specialized training camp in Tempe, Ariz., Martinez joined a team grooming Russell to take his place atop the draft. The chief competition, Brady Quinn of Notre Dame, is more polished and experienced than Russell, with four years as a college starter as opposed to two, yet he showed up in Tempe for some buffing of his own.

"They never threw at the same time," Martinez said. "Brady Quinn would throw in the morning and JaMarcus would throw in the afternoon. There was a little bit of competition there."

Russell's size makes him both alluring and unnerving, creating doubts about his agility. He can probably absorb a hit very well, but will he lumber around in the pocket, unable to keep up with the speed of the NFL game? At 6-foot-6, he looks more like a tight end than a quarterback, and he reportedly carried as much as 265 pounds when he led LSU past Quinn's Irish in the Sugar Bowl. His fitness advisers in Arizona peeled close to 10 pounds off him, revealing a sleeker model. Martinez immediately went to work on Russell's feet.

On their first day together, Martinez measured the distance Russell covered in a three-step drop. "The first time he did it, it was 41/3 yards," Martinez said, "and in 45 minutes, we had him dropping back 7 yards in the same amount of time."

Among other things, he adjusted Russell's hand position after the snap, giving him more balance and leverage on the drop. The next day, he showed a videotape of the session to Russell, increasing the quarterback's confidence in what they had achieved.

By the time they were done with their training, Russell's footwork was strong enough that Martinez wanted to showcase it on "pro day."

In fact, he wanted to put all of Russell's presumed weaknesses on display. Agents create scripts for these events, and they are usually written to obscure areas of doubt. Martinez reasoned that the scouts and coaches would eventually, in private workouts, ask Russell to perform drills that emphasized perceived shortcomings. He wanted the script to answer the big questions, to assure the scouts that Russell had nothing to hide.
The Raiders, current owners of the top pick, recently invited Martinez for what was reported to be an interview to become the team's quarterbacks coach. Martinez read it more as "a chance to exchange information," and he filled them in on what he had learned about Russell.

Russell's soft-spoken personality? "He's very quiet, very respectful," Martinez said, "He doesn't say much, but he's always taking things in. You can see him sizing things up and figuring people out."

Russell's background? Martinez believes that any NFL executive who meets with Russell's relatives will gain confidence in the decision to draft him. "He has a very grounded family," Martinez said. "They're all squared away. They're not buying into the fanfare around this."

The other information he would like to impart would apply to any 21-year-old. Russell needs stability, continuity on the coaching staff. Martinez once heard Jim Plunkett describe a harrowing period in his career when the quarterbacks coach changed four times in four years. He doesn't want one of the most prodigious talents the game has ever seen to be squandered.

Martinez has seen all of Russell's flaws up close, and he still finds himself amazed. He says that Russell, fulfilling a typical scout's request, can stand flat-footed at the goal line and, without moving his body for the necessary torque, throw a ball 77 yards downfield.

He can also sit at the opponent's 40-yard line and throw a ball through the uprights of the goalpost. Cal's Kyle Boller once asserted that he could throw the same pass from the 50 while on his knees. But Russell does it on his backside, relying entirely on his arm. Martinez fondly calls this maneuver "the butt throw."

Martinez is a technical wizard, so he probably shouldn't be so impressed. But he can't help himself. Two weeks as JaMarcus Russell's coach turned him into a fan.
The Black John elway.( whosays been very bad team dosen't have its rewards.

29

by kibbles (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 6:44pm

Looking at DPAR and DVOA numbers for the eight backs studied by the Denver Post, Henry ranks in the middle of the pack, right around â€¦ Tatum Bell, who was exiled to Detroit in the Dreâ€™ Bly trade.

I am not a fan of Travis Henry at all, but in his defense, there's a difference between finishing 30th in DVOA in Tennessee and finishing 30th in DVOA in Denver. Mike Bell had a 5.5% DVOA, and Henry runs with a similar style but more talent, so I'd expect something in that neighborhood or better- a noticeable improvement over Tatum Bell.

I am new to site. Will adjust posts in future so to not getin trouble. I see what you mean about thelinks.

32

by Raiderjoe (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 7:37pm

re: my first post above in the thread

In case web owners have to remove it because of the article, I have my original thoughts posted here.

without a doubt Jamarcus russel will have the best arm in the NFl. I would like you to tell me who this imiginary Qb is that possesses a better arm than him. I feel almost sorry for teams that try and play that cocver 2 defense against this guy. Second you want to dispute his accuracy. The guy completed in the high sixty percentage in one of the toughest football conferences.(not in a WCO offense) So I really donâ€™t know what your basing your accuracy standard on

33

by NF (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 8:06pm

19:

Kurt Warner's nickname should be Mr. Glass. He plays well if he is not banged-up, which is not often at this point in his career because he has little mobility in he pocket and he has played behind some pretty poor lines over the last several years. What directly led to his benching for Leinart last year was a big hit he took in a game that led to a concussion that caused him to become Captain Turnover. He actually played okay in the final game of the season after sitting on the bench for a couple months.

Also, remember that he was already 28 when he first played in the NFL, so he was great when he entered and never played any better, and he has been in decline since 2002.

34

by D (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 9:23pm

About Kitna's prospects in Detroit (which for some reason has become a topic). I think it is worth noting that while Kitna turned the ball over a bunch of times, both Trent Green and Marc Bulger did the same thing in their first year's as starters in the Martz/Vermeil/Saunders offense and they both played behind much better offensive lines than Kitna did. However, after stuggling in their first years, they each got more comfortable and turned into two of the leagues better QBs. I am not necessarily saying that Kitna will have a big breakthrough next year (he is quite a bit older than Green and Bulger were when they took over and he does play for the Lions), just that it is a possibility.

35

by wr (not verified) :: Thu, 04/05/2007 - 10:18pm

17 : It may also be that current NFL assistants looked on an Oakland job as career suicide, just as the HCs apparently did...

"Two weeks as JaMarcus Russellâ€™s coach turned him into a fan.
The Black John elway."

You really are new to the site if you are comparing Russell to Elway. That's outrageous - don't you know that a black QB can only be compared to another black QB, and a white QB can only be compared to another white QB?

Actually, since you're new to the site, I'll tell you that this is all sarcasm, as it has been a long-running joke here to make fun of the fact that the media always seems to follow this "rule." Thus, the media compares Russell to Daunte Culpepper. We also make fun of the fact that the media applies a similar rule to white wide receivers, who always are compared to other white wide receivers. White wide receivers are never described by the media as being fast. Instead, a white wide receiver typically is described as having deceptive speed, being a good route runner, and as gritty and a "fan favorite."

38

by D (not verified) :: Fri, 04/06/2007 - 12:38am

On the topic of #37 can someone who has seen alot of Russell's games please tell me if the Culpepper comparison is fair. I mean I know he is a big guy with a strong arm but from what I have seen he has never been the scrambler Culpepper was before his knee injury. If anything he seems more like a Ben Roethlisberger type. But as I said I probably haven't seen enough to form a true opinion.

39

by kibbles (not verified) :: Fri, 04/06/2007 - 2:36am

I don't buy the Elway comparisons at all. First off, when I think of Elway, really three things defined his game- his incredible arm (best in the league, at least until Favre/Young came into their own), his incredible mobility (again, best in the league until Young came to town), and his incredibly ability to will his team to victory.

Of those three characteristics, all Russell has is the arm. As a rusher, if I were feeling kind I'd describe him as "hesitant" or "halfhearted", and he never seemed to have that intangible "winning spirit" to him, either. He always seemed like a great QB to have when you had the lead, but not so much when you were behind (and after spending 4 years rooting for Chris Leak, I recognize the type). He didn't feast on cupcakes only to turn into a pumpkin against quality teams like Quinn did, he just lacked that "extra gear" when he was trailing that kicked his team into overdrive for the comeback. Might be a great QB, but never struck me as a "winner" in the Vince Young, John Elway, Joe Montana mold.

Russell has more in common with Kyle Boller than he does with John Elway. In fact, that seems like a pretty decent comparison to me- Russell is like a more technically sound Kyle Boller, except with a better understanding of defenses.

40

by Fergasun (not verified) :: Fri, 04/06/2007 - 2:36am

This anti-spam thing is annoying. My posts keep getting swallowed up and not posting.

Raiderjoe,
You've never seen Kyle Boller's arm! He is awesome! I don't think Russell can throw from his knees through the goal posts.

I think Russells size and arm have to remind you of Culpepper. Culpepper with less mobility. I don't know why that excites everybody to the number one pick. A two year college starter who'se stock shot through the roof with a bowl game win over Notre Dame.

It is always emphasised with Russell that he can " throw the ball far". Well, so can Bollier and Jeff George.

Quinn has a quicker release and is more NFL ready on his presnap reads.

But Jemarcus is that physical specimen you have to notice. If he sucks it won't be that he sucks, but that he has no line, or no receivers, or he's injured, or everybody else but him. (ala Vick, Fumblepepper 06). If Brady Quinn sucks though, people will just call him a bust ( ala Joey Harrington).

45

by SGT Ben (not verified) :: Fri, 04/06/2007 - 9:37am

Whoever it was that proposed dangling the #1 to Cleveland is an idiot. Cleveland needs an offensive line far more than they need a QB. Savage is not an idiot. He wouldn't trade up knowing that at the #3 pick, he'll have the choice of Russel, Quinn, Johnson, Peterson or Thomas. I'm not entirely sold on either Russel or Quinn...and I don't like the Peterson pick. If Thomas isn't available, I hope that Cleveland trades down to improve one of their lines, preferably their offensive line. (Maybe try to trade down a few picks to get Levi Jones).

I don't like Peterson because he's had several injuries in College...and with our offensive line (though improved slightly) this would be magnified.

We also can't evaluate our QBs because their flat on their backs, running for their lives...or both.

There is enough talent in the top 5 to go around...and at #3, if Thomas is taken, our pick has more value to some of the other teams...due to Johnson, Peterson and 1 of the other QBs available. Cleveland should take their time, evaluate their picks, work potential trades...and near the end of the clock, make the pick (if no trade happens.) We have entirely too many holes to trade up.

46

by mmm... sacrilicious (not verified) :: Fri, 04/06/2007 - 10:24am

#36: Um, no?

47

by DWL (not verified) :: Fri, 04/06/2007 - 10:51am

#45 Steps in to replace Chris as "flame war" instigator.

48

by Joe T. (not verified) :: Fri, 04/06/2007 - 11:02am

#45 - I would be that idiot, and with Detroit possibly drafting the best OT (and overall player) at #2, Cleveland might be the idiot for not trying to trade up. My point is that Oakland might ought to consider trading down to cover several needs.The QB class is probably not as good as it has been the last two drafts, its highly probable that if Oakland can trade down a couple spots either QB will fall to them anyway. Detroit probably won't draft a QB, TB has 4 QBs on the roster, there is some speculation that Cleveland may not draft a QB, Arizona certainly won't, Washington certainly won't, Minnesota may, Houston probably won't with the Schaub trade, Miami may, Atlanta probably won't. If Trent Green goes to Cleveland, then Cleveland most certainly won't draft a QB, not with Charlie Frye in the wings.

So excuse me for not being familiar with all the personnel issues of all 32 teams, much less the most consistently awful team in the league.

49

by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Fri, 04/06/2007 - 2:57pm

The good
Why did the Dolphins sign Az Hakim? He sucks.
The bad
I think the Chiefs will win the AFC West in 2007.
The ugly
Also, please vote for me next week on American Idol. Thank you.

50

by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Fri, 04/06/2007 - 3:00pm

41
When that happens, I press Back and try again. Eventually, it gets through.

(A) white wide receiver typically is described as having deceptive speed, being a good route runner, and as gritty and a â€œfan favorite."
The funny thing is, the wide receiver who always comes to mind for me with this description, is Troy Brown.

I've seen Russell play at least a dozen times. He's a better QB than Culpepper. Period.
Russell is not a big scrambler. Fine. When he needs to pick up a few yards, he'll do it. But 500+ yards rushing in a season for him? No, that won't happen.

He's better in the pocket than Culpepper and has a stronger arm. He's already at that John Elway-Joe Namath-Dan Marino arm strength level.

It's all about Russell's head and heart. How smart will he be on NFL fields? Will he be able to read NFL defenses? Will he not rest on his laurels? How much does he care about football?

There is no question about his physical tools. The entire tools package is there.
Current rules don't allow cornerbacks to play like they used to play. Cornerbacks have been emasculated. Defensive coordinators deal with this by unloading on QBs. The name of the game in the NFL now seems to be "kill the quarterback." It will be tough to kill Russell. He is huge and is tough in the pocket.

54

by Sean (not verified) :: Fri, 04/06/2007 - 11:56pm

Russell's head and heart for football are the big questions in this. I've mentioned it elsewhere on this sight, but some of the things being said about Russell remind me a lot of what was being said about Leaf before the 98(?)

Having said that, I think it bodes well that when his role as starter for LSU was called into question before the start of last season, he came up big.

In regards to it being hard to "kill" Russell, could be true for the Colts DE's, but I think it would be a different story against someone like Peppers or Tommie Harris.

55

by pharmboyrick (not verified) :: Sat, 04/07/2007 - 2:57am

The QBs this year do not seem to be near as good as last years. If Russell was so great, he would have had more national hype throughout his career, especially playing for a school like LSU. People talk about his arm which is super strong, but he does not have all the throws.

Here is my comparison of these QBs.

Russell Quinn

Best Case Bledsoe Brees
Likely Brister Harrington

Quinn had some success, but usually had poor games when going against good competition.

56

by admin :: Sat, 04/07/2007 - 11:05pm

I want to apologize for the anti-spam filter, but until we installed it we were going through a period with roughly 800-1,000 spam messages per day. We would rather spend our time writing a book than deleting spam.

57

by James, London (not verified) :: Mon, 04/09/2007 - 8:46am

"I think Russells' size and arm have to remind you of Culpepper. Culpepper with less mobility".

We had a good look at a "less mobile" Culpepper in Miami last year. It sucked.

58

by pharmboyrick (not verified) :: Mon, 04/09/2007 - 11:37am

LT and their front 7 should manke the Chargers the winner, but don't expect everything to fall their way like it did last year. The only team to likely pose a challenge should be Denver, who given their roster changes appear too difficult to evaluate.

59

by PaulH (not verified) :: Mon, 04/09/2007 - 7:11pm

I don't mean to complain, but I must say that all of this "Compares To" junk is a load of crap, in my eyes.

At this stage, it's very hard to figure out even if a player is going to even be able to succeed in the NFL, muchless who his current NFL counterpart is at the moment. Besides, each player is different, so who is to so there even if such a thing as a counterpart for most players?

And how much more simple-minded can it be? The big, black QB's counterpart is the main big, black QB in the NFL, and the Golden Boy's counterpart is the main Golden Boy in the NFL.

Honestly, the whole thing sounds like something my and my friends from forever ago would have came up with circa junior high. It's just not the high quality content that I usually expect from Football Outsiders.

60

by PaulH (not verified) :: Mon, 04/09/2007 - 7:19pm

57,

Just because he doesn't have Culpepper's mobility does not mean he has Culpepper's small hands, indecision, and apparent lack of effort in preparing himself for the mental aspect of the game.

In the end, it is those things that really gave Culpepper trouble, not to mention that massive knee injury that likely affected far more than just his mobility.

61

by pharmboyrick (not verified) :: Mon, 04/09/2007 - 8:46pm

As a Bronco fan I hope that the Raiders pass on Calvin Johnson and take one of these QBs. This would continue the trend of giving the AFC West two games against the NFLs version of a "division II" opponent.

62

by Not saying (not verified) :: Tue, 04/10/2007 - 10:40am

Re: 56

I understand the need for an anti-spam filter. It does seem like the easiest filter to break, though. It's just a limited set of words that a robot can recognize.

Can I suggest instead the Hot or Not captcha? Robots can't defeat it. And someone claims they met their wife through it.

I guess Culpeppers knee injury caused him to throw lots of picks in double coverage.

The main thing you hear about Russell is "strong arm". If he were a bust, he wouldn't be first "strong armed" quarterback to bust.

64

by MRH (not verified) :: Tue, 04/10/2007 - 11:14pm

I'm sure even devoted fans of FO stats will be surprised to learn that eight teams had 2 WRs in the top 32 in both DPAR and DVOA (if WR talent were evenly distributed and divorced from QB quality every team would have 1 such WR). Some of thse teams will come as no surprise: IND, DAL, ARI, NO, CIN, STL, even DET. The 8th one might be a shock: KC. Every year, Kennison and Samie Parker are maligned. Every year I look at DVOA and DPAR and see that they don't look so bad, especially when you consider that Gonzalez absorbs a lot of cap and sees a lot of balls. The Chiefs need to re-build their o-line and fix their defense. Kennison is getting old, so maybe he needs to be replaced some day - but looking at his numbers, he's not the biggest problem they have.

Well they usually have a stud trent green throwing to them. Look at the QB's for those teams.

66

by MRH (not verified) :: Wed, 04/11/2007 - 2:53pm

Re #65 - that's true most years, but last year's Green was not the 2002-2005 version. Last year was a different QB, a lesser Green and Huard. Detroit and Kitna are comparable to that, but not the QBs on the other 6 teams.