Thursday, May 29, 2014

Liberals drop in new poll

The polls are finally starting to look a little more similar, but that doesn't mean they are all still in agreement. The latest poll from Forum Research for the Toronto Star, for example, shows the Liberals decreasing significantly - the first such decrease recorded in this campaign.

The Liberals still hold the lead in the projection, however, with 35.9% (up 0.1 from the last update), or between 35% and 40% support. The PCs have increased by 1.8 points to 35% (or between 34% and 38%), while the New Democrats were down 1.7 points to 21% (or between 19% and 22%). The Greens were down 0.1 point to 7%, or between 5% and 9%.

In the seat count, the Liberals are still narrowly favoured with 49 (+1), or between 40 and 58. The PCs picked up six seats from the last update to hit 43, or between 34 and 50. The NDP dropped seven seats to 15, or between 13 and 20.

As you can see in the chart above (which tracks each polling firm's trends, as well as the confidence intervals that should generally apply), the drop for the Liberals reverses a rather steady - if slow - increase that every poll has recorded since the start of the campaign. But the question must be asked: is this just a reset? Forum had the Liberals at a very unlikely 41% in their last survey. A regression to the mean was perhaps inevitable.

Forum was last in the field on May 20. Since then, the Liberals dropped five points to 36%, moving them into a tie with the Tories, who were up two points. The NDP was unchanged at 20%, while the Greens were up three points to 7%.

Only the shifts in support for the Liberals and Greens appear statistically significant.

Regionally, the Liberals led in Toronto and the north/central part of the province, while the Tories were ahead in the east, southwest, and 905 area code. A few noteworthy shifts occurred: the Liberals dropped eight points and relinquished the lead in the 905, and also gave up the advantage in the southwest with a nine-point slip. In the north, the NDP fell 10 points, but that looks unreasonably low for the party.

It could be, however, that Andrea Horwath's shine is starting to wear off. Her approval rating sits at just 34%, its lowest level in at least a few years. Her disapproval rating jumped eight points to 48%, the highest it has been. Kathleen Wynne's disapproval rating also increased, by seven points, to 53%. Her approval rating dropped to 34%, while Tim Hudak's approval and disapproval ratings increased to 27% and 63%, respectively, as undecideds formed an opinion.

On who would make the best premier, Hudak jumped four points to 28%, putting him closer to Wynne's 31%. Horwath came up third with 18%.

The last two polls we have seen out of Ontario have shown a close race, with a two-point edge for the Liberals according to Abacus and now a tie according to Forum. It will be interesting to see if Ipsos Reid, which was showing a narrowing of the gap the last we heard from them, will also show the same sort of close race.

It doesn't seem to affect the overall upward trend in the Liberal numbers. Right now, it's equally likely that it's noise. The IPSOS poll will tell.

Also, was this poll taken before the NDP started debating existential questions about the direction of the party in the press? Nothing scares away center-left voters more than mixed signals and infighting during an election campaign. Seriously, they seem to WANT a Liberal majority so that they can keep the NDP an academic debating society and not have to bother with holding the balance of power.

I hope Tom Mulcair is watching and learning. The country needs a viable NDP.

When will the first polls come out since Hudak's "million jobs plan" has been pilloried all over the press - right, left and centre - by serious economists?

As for the NDP - I think that it's pretty straightforward: Horwath is doing everything she can to make them not stand for anything, or rather, to be the Liberals only less corrupt. But people aren't really that troubled by the gas plant stuff outside of Queens Park. It's pretty small beer, really. By refusing to differentiate the NDP isn't able to move the needle beyond their traditional core of support. My guess is that, unless they made a mid-campaign change of direction (highly unlikely) or go into meltdown (more possible but still unlikely) the NDP will come in with slightly fewer seats because some of their core will vote Liberal to stop the Tories. That will probably give the Tories a few extra seats than they have now and the Liberals as well.

If people want a somewhat socially progressive pro-business party, they'll vote Liberal, the party with business connections. Why vote for the socially progressive party without business connections - unless it proposes an alternative, i.e. some version of socialist economics? That is the practical electoral strategic failure of Horwath's NDP.

Unless you are part of the Bay Street inner power circle, there is nothing pro-business about the Liberal Party in its current form. If Sandra Pupatello was elected leader one may have responded differently to this statement, though.

1% of the population will vote for socialism. Horwath has many failures but, being "quasi-pro-business" and accepting the realities of modern economics is not one of them. She is campaigning to better the NDP's position not make the party a laughing stock and irrelevant to Ontario.

We saw the effects of socialism: it created mass famine; economic, political and social inefficiencies and has been demonstrated time and again is only stable when employed by a tyrannical state or leadership. Every country save one that at one time was socialist has recognised the error of their was and the fallacy of the philosophy and doctrine and become at least quasi-capitalist and sometimes more (Many argue China today is closer to a pure capitalist society than the USA or Canada or European countries). Anyone who wishes to enjoy the bounty of socialism has the option of moving to North Korea! Give my regards to Kim Jong-Un!

The regional numbers in Forum look odd - PC's way ahead in Eastern Ontario (at odds with other polls), and the Libs way ahead in Northern Ontario? This poll may be about as reliable as the new Federal poll saying Justin Trudeau lost pro-choice voters to the pro-choice NDP?!

The Northern Ontario numbers also look strange to me but, we should keep in mind Northern Ontario was at one time a Liberal bastion, we are probably witnessing the residual effects of Liberal strength in this poll. I would expect Liberal numbers to be in the 30's come election day.

Whoops - I should have been more specific about what I was describing. :) I meant that the NDP dropped in the seat count in the projection. I guess this is because of the way the regional polls breakdown. But the projection has the NDP losing several seats to the LIBS in the 416, and losing seats to the PC's outside Toronto.

I'm curious why CTV which bought the Ipsos poll is only reporting the "full" results (36/34/23/7) and not the "likely" with the huge gap. Is it that they themselves are wary of the numbers? It seems to be the same kind of "outlier" that their previous poll was; and, given they won't likely have another poll out before the debate, we'll never know if their next numbers change, whether the new numbers reflect the campaign or their absurd methodology. While we may not like others "secret sauce" approach, it's no worse than - or reporting - only those who will vote unless an earthquake. ;)

I find it a little biased that you are placing political advertisement for one party on your website while presenting a supposed unbiased view of said political poll numbers. Seeing advertisements for one party makes me think you might be biasing your numbers towards the party you are supporting.

The only ad I have currently placed on the site is the Loonie Politics ad at the top of the page. All the others are generated by Google and are not chosen by me.

In fact, because the ads are generated by Google they may have more to do with your browsing history than my site. I once searched for junk removal and I saw ads on my site for 1-800-GOT-JUNK for a month, but others would not have seen the same thing as the ads are sometimes tailored to the person visiting the site, not the site itself.

COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.

Details on the methodology of the poll aggregation and seat projections are available here and here. Methodology for the forecasting model used during election campaigns is available here.

Projections on this site are subject to the margins of error of the opinion polls included in the model, as well as the unpredictable nature of politics at the riding level. The degree of uncertainty in the projections is also reflected by the projections' high and low ranges, when noted.

ThreeHundredEight.com is a non-partisan site and is committed to reporting on polls responsibly.