Labor paralysed from the top down

Wednesday marks the first anniversary of
Kevin Rudd
’s failed bid to take the leadership from
Julia Gillard
.

He was trounced by 71 votes to 31 and it seemed almost inconceivable back then that the issue would be alive again within 12 months.

Indeed, Rudd himself told the caucus straight after the ballot that it was over as far as he was concerned.

“You will have my absolute support in your efforts to bring us to victory,’’ he said to Gillard. “I will not under any circumstances mount a challenge against your leadership. I go one step further. If anyone turns on Julia in the 18 months ahead of the type I have seen reported in much of the press, Julia – you will find me in your corner against them."

Arriving home from Afghanistan this week, Defence Minister
Stephen Smith
, who backs Gillard strongly, sought to remind people of these words, pointing out that Rudd had offered to act as a “human shield’’.

Yet one year later, the party is consumed with leadership talk, sparked by a dramatic collapse in Labor’s vote and Gillard’s personal approval ratings, as well as a growing fear that Labor cannot win with Gillard at the helm. The Australian Financial Review/Nielsen poll published on Monday was, as
Simon Crean
called it, a wake-up call.

Gillard had promised that Labor’s fortunes would begin to improve after the carbon tax was introduced on July 1, 2012, because voters would realise
Tony Abbott
’s fear campaign was just that. The Opposition Leader would have precious little left other than negativity and would be left by the roadside as Labor shifted the agenda to health, education and industrial relations.

She was right. In the Nielsen poll, Labor’s primary vote clawed its way back from a risible 30 per cent in July to 35 per cent by Christmas. In Newspoll, Labor’s primary reached as high as 38 per cent, the same level as the 2010 election, and it was level pegging the Coalition at 50-50 on the two-party-preferred vote.

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Labor was still behind but was now within striking distance. Its internal polling showed it was still in diabolical trouble in western Sydney, but at least it had something to work with. There was hope.

Central to this was that Gillard was vastly more popular than Abbott. In the September Nielsen poll, she held a 10 percentage point lead as preferred prime minister. Her net approval – her approval rating minus her disapproval rating – was minus 4. Abbott’s was a disastrous minus 29.

Over the summer, that all vanished. In Monday’s poll, Labor’s primary vote had fallen back to 30 per cent, Abbott had stormed from behind to take a 4-point lead as preferred prime minister and his net approval had shrunk to minus 13. Gillard’s had blown out to minus 18.

It was the fifth successive poor public poll this year and arguably the one which broke the government and put Gillard’s leadership on notice once more. Even her most ardent supporters conceded that falling behind Abbott in terms of approval and preferred prime minister had eliminated the only advantage the government had.

The reasons proffered for the slump were various, but ultimately it was an extremely messy start to the year for the government.

Still, it is far from certain that Gillard is finished. As one senior factional operator noted this week, the vast majority of the caucus does not believe Labor can win under Gillard, but less than a majority believes Rudd is the solution.

“Nobody knows because no one’s making decisions right now,’’ he said. “You talk to people and they’re very despondent. Everyone says something’s got to happen, but no one’s sure what that means.’’

Gillard remains odds-on to take Labor to the election. Even Rudd’s supporters admit that. She still has the numbers and the backing, reinforced so strongly this week, of the powerful Australian Workers Union. But the resolve of some Gillard MPs is not as strong as it once was and it would take only a handful of backbenchers in dangerously exposed marginal seats to shift for it to be all over.

If Gillard is to lead Labor to the September 14 election, she needs to survive two critical periods: the fortnightly sittings of Parliament beginning on March 12 and June 17. These are the two periods being eyed off by the Rudd camp.

Apart from the three days when Parliament will sit for the budget in May, these sittings are the only periods where both Houses will sit before the election and all Labor MPs and senators will be together.

On the Saturday before March 12, there will be the West Australian state election. Liberal Premier
Colin Barnett
is expected to beat Labor’s
Mark McGowan,
but pundits will be watching Labor’s performance. The federal government is so unpopular in the west that McGowan has asked Gillard to stay away during the campaign and has been attacking the carbon tax and mining tax.

If WA Labor goes backwards, Gillard’s detractors will draw federal implications. She will blame state factors and, given she has been persona non grata in the west, she would be entitled to do so.

Rudd has said repeatedly in recent weeks that he will not challenge for the leadership, but his words are careful when asked whether he would accept being drafted.

“I support the Prime Minister. The rest of the parliamentary party supports the Prime Minister. Therefore the issue of the draft doesn’t arise,’’ he said.

Reading between the lines, he is saying the issue of the draft will arise if or when the caucus no longer supports the Prime Minister.

To effect a draft, Rudd’s backers hope the momentum shifts, if not in March, then in the June sitting fortnight. If the polls are still bad for Labor in June, then the survival instinct of the marginal seat holders will be at its strongest.