Further Reading

The CEO started off addressing the new solar roof. Musk reiterated what he tweeted to Ars Technica Senior Editor Lee Hutchinson in May, that a solar roof may not work for every customer, as the overall price of the product is contingent on the region where you live and the cost of electricity there.

“It depends on what property taxes are, what the cost of financing is, and what the cost of power from the utility is,” Musk said. He added that “there is still a very important role” for traditional solar panels, like if you have a flat roof that’s not visible from the street, or if you have a newer roof.

Musk then turned to electric vehicles. He said the internal vision system that the company has been developing for autonomous driving was “almost there in terms of exceeding the ability of the Hardware 1 cars,” which used Mobileye chips for sensing. Tesla and Mobileye had a falling out last year in the wake of a fatal accident involving a Tesla driver and a truck. The CEO said last night that developing Tesla’s own vision chip has “definitely been a tough slog,” although cars with the Tesla-made hardware will be ready for “full autonomy.” The next software release, Musk said, could come as soon as next week.

The CEO also said that the electric vehicle company is planning to increase its presence on the ground with more stores and factories. On stage, Musk estimated that the US would have 660 Tesla stores and “thousands of stores” would pop up in China. The Tesla factory in Fremont, California, where the Model S and X are made, is also apparently “bursting at the seams” and Tesla is actively scouting three factory locations for additional capacity. Musk said that he expected 10 factories worldwide, but he didn't specify a time frame, according to a transcript of the meeting from Seeking Alpha.

Model Y clues, Model 3 facts

Musk also said that the Model Y—a future vehicle set to go into production in 2019—would be built at a new factory. Very few details are known about the Model Y, but Musk has said in the past that the company is going to eschew any previous auto platforms in building the Model Y.

“There has been some criticism, like we should sort of derive from the Model 3 platform,” Musk told the crowd Tuesday night. “But I think actually we made a mistake in trying to derive the Model X from the Model S platform. It would have been better to just design an SUV the way an SUV should be designed. Design a sedan, the way a sedan should be designed.”

The CEO added that with a new factory, Tesla could further streamline manufacturing and bring capital expenditures on the car down “by a factor of two between Model 3 and Model Y.”

Tesla will also open up its Model 3 configurator in late July, Musk said, although he admitted configurations would be limited: “We have kept the initial configurations for Model 3 very simple. This is critical to achieving a rapid production ramp.”

Initially, the Model 3 configurations will hinge on color and wheel size.

Musk also confirmed that a dual-motor Model 3 won’t be available at first. “We were going to start off with dual motor,” he said. “But that’s like: ‘wait a second, we just doubled the probability of something going wrong if we got two motors, because there are two different motor architectures.’ One motor is optimized for highway travel and one is optimized for stop-and-go traffic, which is great for maximizing your mileage in city and maximizing your... mileage on the freeway and having incredible acceleration. But it’s too much complexity right off the bat.”

The Tesla semi and long shots

Tesla has promised that an all-electric semi truck will be announced this fall, an endeavor that will compete with current initiatives at other car companies as well. Musk told investors Tuesday night that the company will work closely with its customers to address their most pressing concerns and reach “scale production on the semi in about two years.” The CEO hinted that there could also be more to the September announcement. “I just really recommend showing up for the semi-truck unveiling,” he added.

If the semi and the Model Y are distant but safe bets, Musk’s peripheral endeavors are more flights of fancy. In response to questions about how he divides his time, the CEO answered that Tesla and SpaceX take up most of it, noting that even though he tweets a lot about The Boring Company (a recently created company to channel his efforts to build a futuristic tunnel) and Neuralink, they aren’t his primary preoccupation. “The Boring Company is maybe two percent of my time, Neuralink is three percent to five percent of my time, OpenAI is going to be a couple of percent, and then 90-percent-plus is divided between SpaceX and Tesla.”

“It’s probably slightly more Tesla,” he added. “Tesla is more like a drama magnet.”

Toward the end of the meeting, Musk answered whether he might ever pursue an electric plane. The CEO said that his company had “no plans” to pursue that technology right now, but he added that “it’s not inconceivable.” Still, the problem with battery-powered aviation is the energy density of batteries, Musk said, suggesting that if batteries could get over 500 watt-hours per kilogram, the idea of an electric plane becomes “quite compelling.”

I know about the whole S,3,X name thing. Now we'll have S,3,X,Y? I'm not sure if this is clever or childish in the extreme. Hmm, it can be both....

That's been the plan from the beginning. It was supposed to be the Model S, the Model E, the Model X and the Model Y. Because they're so sexy. They only changed it to a 3 (instead of an E) due to issues with another E-class vehicle from a certain manufacturer. So it's not exactly "Now".

Either way, I'm excited to see their take on a crossover. I'm not quite in the market for one yet, but I expect I will be by the time it comes out.

“I should say that we’ve kept the initial configurations of the Model 3 very simple,” Musk said. “A big mistake we made with the X, which is primarily my responsibility — there was way too much complexity right at the beginning. That was very foolish.”

Musk said he’s learned from the Model X rollout, which allowed for so much customization at launch that Tesla wound up hurting its own production timelines. “[Model X] is like a fabergé egg of cars. It’s really an amazing product, but it has way too many cool things in it that should have really been rolled in with version two, version three,” he said. “We got overconfident and created something great that probably will never be made again. And perhaps should not be.”

I know about the whole S,3,X name thing. Now we'll have S,3,X,Y? I'm not sure if this is clever or childish in the extreme. Hmm, it can be both....

That's been the plan from the beginning. It was supposed to be the Model S, the Model E, the Model X and the Model Y. Because they're so sexy. They only changed it to a 3 (instead of an E) due to issues with another E-class vehicle from a certain manufacturer.

"He said the internal vision system that the company has been developing for autonomous driving was “almost there in terms of exceeding the ability of the Hardware 1 cars,” which used Mobileye chips for sensing. The CEO said last night that developing Tesla’s own vision chip has “definitely been a tough slog,” although cars with the Tesla-made hardware will be ready for “full autonomy.”"

Is it the first time that he is so "humble" about how difficult it is/has been trying to meet and exceed the performance/functionalities of the Mobileye system?

Also, for somebody fairly instrumental to autonomous car development, why would he use the word "full autonomy" when he knows full well that's a lie. Tesla vehicles are somewhere between levels 2 and 3, not even close to 5. And it's also unknown whether the 2nd gen hardware will have adequate sensor suite and processing power to ever reach level 5.

Does the dual motor mean one for each of the front and rear axles for four wheel drive, or just front axle but different modes for city/highway?

Tesla's dual-motor configuration is one for each axle, so one in front and one in back. One is optimized for city and the other for highway to increase efficiency, though both can be used in tandem for extra power as well (plus traction control, of course).

Also, for somebody fairly instrumental to autonomous car development, why would he use the word "full autonomy" when he knows full well that's a lie. Tesla vehicles are somewhere between levels 2 and 3, not even close to 5. And it's also unknown whether the 2nd gen hardware will have adequate sensor suite and processing power to ever reach level 5.

Because his contention is that the hardware suite in current Teslas is ready for full autonomy, it's the software that's holding things back. He is not saying that Teslas can currently do full level 5 autonomy.

Unless of course you like the sound of ICE from straight pipes, or the waft of sulfur from the catalytic converter, or an excuse to waste time in the garage (changing oil) on the weekend while avoiding your spouse...

True.

Even today there are people that keep and use horses, even though the need for them that existed decades and longer ago has passed.

There'll always be ICE. The extent to which they'll be popular, though, is yet to be determined.

"if it doesn't have a heartbeat it's not for me" -- your great grandpa, 1917

Electric cars will soon be better in every way, you're gonna have to deal with it

Deal with it?! I can't fucking wait for the day when douches with modified exhausts are no longer stomping on the gas pedal while passing my house. All electric all self driving future can't come soon enough.

Unless of course you like the sound of ICE from straight pipes, or the waft of sulfur from the catalytic converter, or an excuse to waste time in the garage (changing oil) on the weekend while avoiding your spouse...

True.

Even today there are people that keep and use horses, even though the need for them that existed decades and longer ago has passed.

There'll always be ICE. The extent to which they'll be popular, though, is yet to be determined.

We're still about a decade or so away from electric trucks, class 1 or class 8, being worth buying. The energy density of fuel is critical for load-hauling applications and lithium batteries are, at best, effectively 10-20 times less energy dense than gas or diesel. Battery chemistry doesn't follow Moore's law, so I doubt we'll see that barrier broken in the next couple years, much less industrialized.

Unless of course you like the sound of ICE from straight pipes, or the waft of sulfur from the catalytic converter, or an excuse to waste time in the garage (changing oil) on the weekend while avoiding your spouse...

True.

Even today there are people that keep and use horses, even though the need for them that existed decades and longer ago has passed.

There'll always be ICE. The extent to which they'll be popular, though, is yet to be determined.

I honestly believe that ICE will be the majority >60% of sales until charging is < 5 minutes. I say this because that's the fraction of the population I guesstimate doesn't have access to fixed parking. (ie a garage / owned stall)

There are some niches that will be tough to fill (I love off-roading in the 4Runner) but even those will be just a matter of time. We still have a LOT of improvements to make though. Support infrastructure for electric (charge stations or battery swap stations)... power generation (need to gtf away from coal/oil/nat gas).... and transmission (we still lose a lot in transmission).

The countries that will take the lead are the ones that see this, and actively work towards it.

Unless of course you like the sound of ICE from straight pipes, or the waft of sulfur from the catalytic converter, or an excuse to waste time in the garage (changing oil) on the weekend while avoiding your spouse...

True.

Even today there are people that keep and use horses, even though the need for them that existed decades and longer ago has passed.

There'll always be ICE. The extent to which they'll be popular, though, is yet to be determined.

I honestly believe that ICE will be the majority >60% of sales until...

Unless of course you like the sound of ICE from straight pipes, or the waft of sulfur from the catalytic converter, or an excuse to waste time in the garage (changing oil) on the weekend while avoiding your spouse...

True.

Even today there are people that keep and use horses, even though the need for them that existed decades and longer ago has passed.

There'll always be ICE. The extent to which they'll be popular, though, is yet to be determined.

We're still about a decade or so away from electric trucks, class 1 or class 8, being worth buying. The energy density of fuel is critical for load-hauling applications and lithium batteries are, at best, effectively 10-20 times less energy dense than gas or diesel. Battery chemistry doesn't follow Moore's law, so I doubt we'll see that barrier broken in the next couple years, much less industrialized.

This may be true to some extent. But again, this is one of those niches that may take longer to fill. Or, they may go another route. Toyota already uses hydrogen fuel cells for its fleet in Long Beach:

We're still about a decade or so away from electric trucks, class 1 or class 8, being worth buying. The energy density of fuel is critical for load-hauling applications and lithium batteries are, at best, effectively 10-20 times less energy dense than gas or diesel. Battery chemistry doesn't follow Moore's law, so I doubt we'll see that barrier broken in the next couple years, much less industrialized.

Only thing trucking companies care about is cost per lb per mile. If it outperforms gas trucks then they'll buy them in droves.

Unless of course you like the sound of ICE from straight pipes, or the waft of sulfur from the catalytic converter, or an excuse to waste time in the garage (changing oil) on the weekend while avoiding your spouse...

True.

Even today there are people that keep and use horses, even though the need for them that existed decades and longer ago has passed.

There'll always be ICE. The extent to which they'll be popular, though, is yet to be determined.

I honestly believe that ICE will be the majority >60% of sales until charging is < 5 minutes. I say this because that's the fraction of the population I guesstimate doesn't have access to fixed parking. (ie a garage / owned stall)

For a vast majority of use cases where an EV is suitable for a person's situation, it is < 5 minutes: plug it in when you get home or (if you're lucky) at work, or whatever destination you're going to. It's got a full tank every day.

The next part will be making more situations EV-friendly, like charging stations along street parking, in more parking garages, at more workplaces, etc.

And within a few years a lot of this will be mooted by self-driving cars, as more people will be fine not owning/maintaining a car of their own.

Unless of course you like the sound of ICE from straight pipes, or the waft of sulfur from the catalytic converter, or an excuse to waste time in the garage (changing oil) on the weekend while avoiding your spouse...

True.

Even today there are people that keep and use horses, even though the need for them that existed decades and longer ago has passed.

There'll always be ICE. The extent to which they'll be popular, though, is yet to be determined.

We're still about a decade or so away from electric trucks, class 1 or class 8, being worth buying. The energy density of fuel is critical for load-hauling applications and lithium batteries are, at best, effectively 10-20 times less energy dense than gas or diesel. Battery chemistry doesn't follow Moore's law, so I doubt we'll see that barrier broken in the next couple years, much less industrialized.

This may be true to some extent. But again, this is one of those niches that may take longer to fill. Or, they may go another route. Toyota already uses hydrogen fuel cells for its fleet in Long Beach:

It says full-testing this summer, but when I was up there.... they're further along than you might think.

Hydrogen fuel is still vastly less efficient per kg of fuel. About 3-5 times less efficient in real-world terms. 7 times lower energy density and fuel cells are only about 50% more efficient than ICE. That's before factoring in electric motor energy losses.

I'm on the same boat. I couldn't care less that the performance of electric vehicles has in some cases now surpassed that of ICE cars. I just want--no, need--my car to vibrate, pollute and make noise, just like how I want my TVs to have scan lines and my telephones to have cords and rotary dialers.

H2 fuel cells are propped up solely by the Japanese government trying to create a market to exploit methane hydrate deposits off their coast, but it's a total dead end. The actual physics make no sense.

Unless of course you like the sound of ICE from straight pipes, or the waft of sulfur from the catalytic converter, or an excuse to waste time in the garage (changing oil) on the weekend while avoiding your spouse...

True.

Even today there are people that keep and use horses, even though the need for them that existed decades and longer ago has passed.

There'll always be ICE. The extent to which they'll be popular, though, is yet to be determined.

We're still about a decade or so away from electric trucks, class 1 or class 8, being worth buying. The energy density of fuel is critical for load-hauling applications and lithium batteries are, at best, effectively 10-20 times less energy dense than gas or diesel. Battery chemistry doesn't follow Moore's law, so I doubt we'll see that barrier broken in the next couple years, much less industrialized.

Tesla already has battery swapping tech so I don't see why they couldn't implement that on a semi truck just at a larger scale. IIRC right now you need to pick your battery back but I could easily see large trucking companies having contracts (possibly owning the stations) to remove that requirement. And since Tesla is among the leaders in self driving car tech right now if you combine that and the battery swapping they could have trucks running 24/7 without stop.

We're still about a decade or so away from electric trucks, class 1 or class 8, being worth buying. The energy density of fuel is critical for load-hauling applications and lithium batteries are, at best, effectively 10-20 times less energy dense than gas or diesel. Battery chemistry doesn't follow Moore's law, so I doubt we'll see that barrier broken in the next couple years, much less industrialized.

Only thing trucking companies care about is cost per lb per mile. If it outperforms gas trucks then they'll buy them in droves.

That's my point. If you have a pair of 150gal tanks, they weigh roughly 1100lbs each [correction, 150gal of diesel weighs ~900 lbs and the tanks will be another ~200 I'm guessing]. If you want the same amount of range from a lithium cell bank, it has to weigh 11-22,000 lbs. Electric motors are probably lighter than diesel power trains, but not enough to balance out 5-11 tons of additional mass.

Unless of course you like the sound of ICE from straight pipes, or the waft of sulfur from the catalytic converter, or an excuse to waste time in the garage (changing oil) on the weekend while avoiding your spouse...

True.

Even today there are people that keep and use horses, even though the need for them that existed decades and longer ago has passed.

There'll always be ICE. The extent to which they'll be popular, though, is yet to be determined.

We're still about a decade or so away from electric trucks, class 1 or class 8, being worth buying. The energy density of fuel is critical for load-hauling applications and lithium batteries are, at best, effectively 10-20 times less energy dense than gas or diesel. Battery chemistry doesn't follow Moore's law, so I doubt we'll see that barrier broken in the next couple years, much less industrialized.

Tesla already has battery swapping tech so I don't see why they couldn't implement that on a semi truck just at a larger scale. IIRC right now you need to pick your battery back but I could easily see large trucking companies having contracts (possibly owning the stations) to remove that requirement. And since Tesla is among the leaders in self driving car tech right now if you combine that and the battery swapping they could have trucks running 24/7 without stop.

Battery swapping is at best a Rube Goldberg solution to the problem that involves 10-20 times more stops for a given range to keep fuel mass the same.

That's my point. If you have a pair of 150gal tanks, they weigh roughly 600lbs each. If you want the same amount of range from a lithium cell bank, it has to weigh 6-12,000 lbs. Electric motors are probably lighter than diesel power trains, but not enough to balance out 3-6 tons of additional mass.

They are beating them according to Tesla, that's how much cheaper it is to operate.

We're still about a decade or so away from electric trucks, class 1 or class 8, being worth buying. The energy density of fuel is critical for load-hauling applications and lithium batteries are, at best, effectively 10-20 times less energy dense than gas or diesel. Battery chemistry doesn't follow Moore's law, so I doubt we'll see that barrier broken in the next couple years, much less industrialized.

Only thing trucking companies care about is cost per lb per mile. If it outperforms gas trucks then they'll buy them in droves.

That's my point. If you have a pair of 150gal tanks, they weigh roughly 600lbs each. If you want the same amount of range from a lithium cell bank, it has to weigh 6-12,000 lbs. Electric motors are probably lighter than diesel power trains, but not enough to balance out 3-6 tons of additional mass.

Unless of course you like the sound of ICE from straight pipes, or the waft of sulfur from the catalytic converter, or an excuse to waste time in the garage (changing oil) on the weekend while avoiding your spouse...

True.

Even today there are people that keep and use horses, even though the need for them that existed decades and longer ago has passed.

There'll always be ICE. The extent to which they'll be popular, though, is yet to be determined.

We're still about a decade or so away from electric trucks, class 1 or class 8, being worth buying. The energy density of fuel is critical for load-hauling applications and lithium batteries are, at best, effectively 10-20 times less energy dense than gas or diesel. Battery chemistry doesn't follow Moore's law, so I doubt we'll see that barrier broken in the next couple years, much less industrialized.

Tesla already has battery swapping tech so I don't see why they couldn't implement that on a semi truck just at a larger scale. IIRC right now you need to pick your battery back but I could easily see large trucking companies having contracts (possibly owning the stations) to remove that requirement. And since Tesla is among the leaders in self driving car tech right now if you combine that and the battery swapping they could have trucks running 24/7 without stop.

Battery swapping is at best a Rube Goldberg solution to the problem that involves 10-20 times more stops for a given range to keep fuel mass the same.

I agree with everything you said.

I make but one request - pick a system of units and stick to it. Especially when you haven't even switched what it is you are measuring. Preferably SI units.