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\f0\b\fs24 \cf0 El Ni\'f1o Outlook Daunting for Aussie Farmers Already in Drought\'92s Grip \
\b0 by Serena Locke, Cassie Hough, Lydia Burton, and Arlie Felton-Taylor\
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\cf0 May 12, 2015 \'96 Farmers already experiencing a series of failed seasons are reeling from the Bureau of Meteorology's official El Ni\'f1o declaration. The Bureau says all models are pointing to a classic El Ni\'f1o, which usually causes drought and warmer conditions in eastern Australia, particularly inland.\
It is also likely to result in an early and more extreme fire season and more frosts.\
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\i \cf0 Rural Financial Counseling Service Plans for Busy Times
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\cf0 South-west Queensland Rural Financial counseling Service chair Karen Tully says some farmers in her area are already struggling with dry conditions. "I think people are running on very empty fuel tanks, or near to empty, and there are some estimates that in certain areas we're down to 10 or 20% of our usual stocking rates, because people have de-stocked," Ms Tully said.\
"People have made tough decisions, so the thought of an even prolonged drier period, on top of what essentially for some is going into our 4th year of drought, is not news that's going to make you dance with delight."\
Ms Tully said she was worried about people's fragile emotional state. "In rural Australia, we pride ourselves on our resilience and we are resilient, but sometimes the edges to that resilience can be touched and reached," she said. \'93It concerns me emotionally, mentally, financially and physically. How can people continue to keep going, when it is just another kick in the teeth yet again?"\
Mrs Tully said it unfortunately meant her financial counseling service staff could be busier than ever. "They're going to be dealing with clients who are at an edge that possibly clients never thought they'd be at," she said.\
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\i \cf0 Forecasts Worries Farmers\
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\i0 \cf0 North-west New South Wales grain farmer David Taylor says he, along with many other farmers, find this prediction disturbing.\
Mr Taylor normally plants about 2,500 hectares of winter crop on his property near Coonamble. He has only planted about 600 hectares of that to barley so far. He said he would be very cautious going forward. "We had plans to sow wheat and chickpeas here as well, but at this stage, with sub soil moisture not much further than a foot down, I'm still very reserved in my decision-making process."\
Given it is the middle of the planting window now for his region, Mr Taylor said there was still a lot of planting activity going on. "Not all areas are dry, some people have had a very good April, so people are very enthusiastic, they're sowing their crops full tilt," he said. "There's a lot of diesel, labor and seed being put in the ground, because there are ideal conditions and the sowing windows are perfect\'85. But it poses a terrible problem if the Bureau is correct. This must be very daunting news."\
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\i \cf0 Grazier Urges Caution\
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\i0 \cf0 A grazier in one of the driest areas in the country says the official announcement of an El Ni\'f1o event does not mean drought. Western Queensland grazier Peter Whip warned people to be cautious with the latest advice. "It means there are chances of lower than normal rainfall," he said. "There has been El Ni\'f1o years that we have had quite good rainfall in the central west\'85. El Ni\'f1o doesn't automatically mean drought." \
Mr Whip said he had already completely de-stocked his property, so El Ni\'f1o weather condition would not have a major impact. "To think it might get drier, really it can't get much worse in terms of lack of grass or lack of rainfall," he said. "It is about waiting for next year's rain now."\
Mr Whip said the forecast highlighted the need for resilient agricultural businesses. "Realistically, droughts are a factor of our landscape, a factor of our business," he said. "This won't be the last drought and it is not the first one. It is about risk management."\
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\i \cf0 Bureau Forecast Details\
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\i0 \cf0 Bureau manager of climate predictions Dr Andrew Watkins says, now with both warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean and sustained weaker trade winds, the conditions were ripe for an El Ni\'f1o. "We've watched the Southern Oscillation Index; well it has been fairly negative now for several months, we've now watched that drop, and the latest value is about -9.9, and that indicates to us that we're at El Ni\'f1o thresholds."\
Dr Watkins said, while it was very close to being an El Ni\'f1o event last year, the near miss had made this event a bit complicated. "Unfortunately El Ni\'f1o tends to have its biggest impacts in winter, particularly in later winter and in spring, so unfortunately we may see a repeat of last year ,with a bit of a wetter start but a drier and warmer end to the season."\
The Bureau has indicated conditions in drought-affected parts of Queensland and New South Wales are likely to deteriorate. The forecast suggests, from late spring, farmers are likely to see drier conditions for eastern South Australia, and for northern and western Victoria.\
Dr Watkins said there was the exception that there could be a chance of more rain. "Our outlook at the moment is for wetter conditions leading up into winter, or rather I should say the odds are higher at the moment, that's really due to the Indian Ocean, the other ocean that affects our climate.\
"The Indian Ocean is very warm at the moment; that's promoting lots of moisture coming in from Western Australia, and those big cloud bands that stream across the continent, and that's upping the chances of rainfall into central Australia and into parts of eastern Australia."\
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\cf0 www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-12/bureau-of-meteorology-declares-an-el-nino-event/6464592}