Imagine a superb poker player who asks you for a loan to finance his nightly poker playing. For every $100 he gambles, he’s willing to put up $3 of his own money. He wants you to lend him the rest. You will not get a stake in his winning. Instead, he’ll give you a fixed rate of interest on your $97 loan.

The poker player likes this situation for two reasons. First, it minimizes his downside risk. He can only lose $3. Second, borrowing has a great effect on his investment — it gets leveraged. If his $100 bet ends up yielding $103, he has made a lot more than 3 percent — in fact, he has doubled his money. His $3 investment is now worth $6.

But why would you, the lender, play this game? It’s a pretty risky game for you. Suppose your friend starts out with a stake of $10,000 for the night, putting up $300 himself and borrowing $9,700 from you. If he loses anything more than 3 percent on the night, he can’t make good on your loan.

Not to worry — your friend is an extremely skilled and prudent poker player who knows when to hold ,em and when to fold ,em. He may lose a hand or two because poker is a game of chance, but by the end of the night, he’s always ahead. He always makes good on his debts to you. He has never had a losing evening. As a creditor of the poker player, this is all you care about. As long as he can make good on his debt, you’re fine. You care only about one thing — that he stays solvent so that he can repay his loan and you get your money back.

But the gambler cares about two things. Sure, he too wants to stay solvent. Insolvency wipes out his investment, which is always unpleasant — it’s bad for his reputation and hurts his chances of being able to use leverage in the future. But the gambler doesn’t just care about avoiding the downside. He also cares about the upside. As the lender, you don’t share in the upside; no matter how much money the gambler makes on his bets, you just get your promised amount of interest.

If there is a chance to win a lot of money, the gambler is willing to take a big risk. After all, his downside is small. He only has $3 at stake. To gain a really large pot of money, the gambler will take a chance on an inside straight.

As the lender of the bulk of his funds, you wouldn't want the gambler to take that chance. You know that when the leverage ratio — the ratio of borrowed funds to personal assets — is 32–1 ($9700 divided by $300), the gambler will take a lot more risk than you’d like. So you keep an eye on the gambler to make sure that he continues to be successful in his play.

But suppose the gambler becomes increasingly reckless. He begins to draw to an inside straight from time to time and pursue other high-risk strategies that require making very large bets that threaten his ability to make good on his promises to you. After all, it’s worth it to him. He’s not playing with very much of his own money. He is playing mostly with your money. How will you respond?

You might stop lending altogether, concerned that you will lose both your interest and your principal. Or you might look for ways to protect yourself. You might demand a higher rate of interest. You might ask the player to put up his own assets as collateral in case he is wiped out. You might impose a covenant that legally restricts the gambler’s behavior, barring him from drawing to an inside straight, for example.

In technical analysis, a stock that has made a new low is one that must be treated with caution and to be avoided buying for longterm investment.

SUMATEC's chart pattern is similar to THHEAVY.

THHE’s dimming prospects

The rising tide of bad news

4 June 2016

What is in store for TH Heavy Engineering Bhd (THHE)? Its accumulated losses stand at RM96mil, it has been excluded from participating in Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) Carigali Sdn Bhd’s tenders for two years, and lastly, may be hit by bigger losses as there is the possibility of it making more impairments, going forward.

Save for something significantly positive happening at the offshore fabrication and marine services company, its prospects look increasingly dim. Based on its latest quarter ended March 31, 2016, its cash is decreasing, down to RM48mil from RM77.6mil in the previous quarter, with borrowings growing slowly but surely to RM408mil from RM406.4mil at the end of last year. Its share price has plummeted to 11 sen from RM1.03 in February 2014.

The good news is, it is actively seeking new contracts for fabrication work. It is hoping to capitalise on its resources at its strategically located Pulau Indah Yard and is focused on winning non-oil-and-gas (O&G)-related fabrication and manufacturing opportunities. The bad news is, some clients may question the company’s ability to deliver after the sanctions by Petronas.

The company has to think out of the box. Perhaps, innovative joint ventures that capitalise on THHE’s strategically located Pulau Indah Yard and a partner with the right expertise is the way to go. And it is right to look outside the embattled O&G sector. Anything less will see the company running out of cash and seeing its accumulated losses nudging it into financial distress, if it hasn’t already reached dangerous levels.

"Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited." - George Soros

"Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited." - George Soros

My views on Instacom

Salvador Dali15 January 2016

Instacom has been hogging the limelights since November last year. My feel is that if it was just a pump and dump, they would have dumped already. We have to be cognisant of the fact that it is no longer a telco tower kind of company, in fact profits from that industry alone will amount to less than 5% of this year's earnings.

So, where is Instacom going? Or should I refer to as Vivocom?

a) Anyone who do not believe in their "china-play" story can sell, and would have already... looking at the shaky global developments in recent weeks (oil going below US$30; yuan devaluing; China sending troops to fight ISIS; etc...). No doubt about that, if you don't wish to part of the story, you can opt out anytime and many have done so. Which is a revealing tell for the price action / volume to see the shares still above 28 sen after all that.

b) Hence, despite all that has happened, the share price has settled very nicely above 27.5-28.5 sen. which is comfy above the small 5% new share issue levels. Even if those people wanted to get out, there is sufficient liquidity for them to exit.

c) Look at Edra, look at 1MDB, who has been buying? Look at Penang under water tunnel, who had the better financing. Gemas? etc... what else. Its not that Malaysia wants to get China's investments, but no one else seems to be looking or wanting to invest! The Middle East has problems of their own, Japan as well... no one seems keen to provide long term FDI... except China. I do not need to go into why Vivocom has a good relationship with CCRC and possibly other China mega counters. Please read the CIMB report.

d) Either the entire thing is a scam, or its true... how to scam with CRCC?, the projects are there already, it is one of the top 100 listed companies in China, they can see the news, they can read the blurbs. Yes, it may take some time for markets to give the stock a proper valuation - currently we are looking at less than 5x prospective earnings. I do believe if and when the quarterly figures come in in line or above valuations/expectations, we will see huge spurts then.

e) To be fair, you cannot ascribe a 10x earnings on a completely new RTO business, no matter how attractive it may be. It has to be gradual, as more confirmation on quarterly earnings and new projects being won.

To that end, I have just come across a faed technical chartist and got his email on his view on Instacom. Our ways of interpreting data may be different, but I think we come to the same conclusion.

Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

Support level is strong at 1,610 points. In the past one month, the FBM KLCI rebounded whenever it fell to this level, including last Friday when there was strong selling pressure. Despite being bearish in the long term, the bullish divergence on the RSI indicator shows that there is strong support. The FBM KLCI is still within the sideways range between 1,610 and 1,640 points. After the UK exit, the market may need some time to evaluate the situation. If the FBM KLCI stays between these levels, the market is still uncertain. However, a breakout above 1,640 points indicates a bullish sentiment and the market may start to rally but a breakout below 1,610 points could cause a major decline and we are talking above the index falling to 1,500 points. Let’s see which level the FBM KLCI breaks.

Limited number of Malaysian firms with exposure to UK ~ 25 Jun 2016http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/25/limited-number-of-msian-firms-with-exposure-to-uk/

Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

Thank you sir for your insight. Bear in mind that you need to minus 19 cents before 30th June due to dividend entitlement. Current support at RM2.90 with upside resistance at RM2.92 and downside support at RM2.88. Neutral trading expected.

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Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

Thank you sir for your insight. Bear in mind that you need to minus 19 cents before 30th June due to dividend entitlement. Current support at RM2.90 with upside resistance at RM2.92 and downside support at RM2.88. Neutral trading expected.

1. Chartwise, expect SP Setia to retest the last low of RM2.80 and move much further down. 2. Should there be a dead cat bounce due to short-covering — Sell into strength, run road fast.3. The cash call (rights issue of up to 1.07b new RCPS-i and rhe 19 sen dividend entitlement have already been priced in.4. The BREXIT -ve impact has not been priced-in yet (re Performance chart below).Performance chart ~ Malaysian firms with exposure to UK and/or EU ~ 4 Jul 2016

1. Chartwise, expect SP Setia to retest the last low of RM2.80 and move much further down. 2. Should there be a dead cat bounce due to short-covering — Sell into strength, run road fast.3. The cash call (rights issue of up to 1.07b new RCPS-i and rhe 19 sen dividend entitlement have already been priced in.4. The BREXIT -ve impact has not been priced-in yet (re Performance chart below).Performance chart ~ Malaysian firms with exposure to UK and/or EU ~ 4 Jul 2016

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Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

Well, I had to blog about this because I had mentioned Borneo Oil during last CNY that it was ripe for a transformation play.

Postives

a) Mathematically attractive - 6 rights for 1 share with 2 free warrants. The rights are priced at just 10 sen. Hence at 80 sen, if you bought 10,000 shares = RM8,000 ... you'd end up with 70,000 shares plus 20,000 warrants. Technically an ex-all price should be around 15-17 sen. Should it trade at that price?

Bearing in mind that the new owners (Hap Seng) has literally revamped the company by reducing its par value to 10 sen. Plus it is now profitable with the gold mine having just started ops. So, you have literally a fresh start for the counter ... little or no debt with fresh capital coming from all shareholders. The exercise could raise RM223.39m cash which is approximately the market cap currently. No baggage, established and professionally proven new owners, an uncertain sector (gold mines) but the early steps already indicated that the extraction cost can be controlled and is proving to be profitable already within just a few months. Later on we can expect better economies of scale and expertise to enhance margins further.

Hence it would take very little for the share price to go above 20 sen ex-all basis, and in all likelihood the free warrants should be convertible at par value of 10 sen, which would lend a price range of between 9-13 sen for the warrants alone.

b) Strategic - There is a lot of room for upside owing to the fact that most banks do not lend to mining concerns. Hence you would have come across a lot of mines' proposals but no bank funding. It would take an entity with the clout and capital strength to venture comfortably to extract value in the mines located in Malaysia.

I have criticised before how short sighted the local banks and Malaysian financial planners were by not adopting and making mining a strategic choice for promotion. KL could have been the capital for raising funds for the mining sector in Southeast Asia if we have a more concerted effort together. The Ring of Fire (go google it) runs right along most Southeast Asian countries including Malaysia. Yes, the mines may not be the really big ones but we keep losing the fight to Indonesia with plenty of state pension funds and long term investors keen to invest in that sector in Indonesia.

Hence it is safe to say Hap Seng would have managed to negotiate a very good value driven deal to absorb the mines and take over Borneo Oil as capital funding is sorely lacking. This is where the kicker comes in. While not much information can be obtained on details of the mines, it is rumoured to be highly attractive terms of short, medium and long term returns.

c) A Giant In the Making - Owing to the above structural reasons, there is a solid chance that Borneo Oil will be a mining giant in Southeast Asia. Because, once proven to be able to operate profitably, it can continue to snap up smaller mines via share issuance. Before you know it, some other listed companies may try to play catch up. Why do you think that decent small mines from Malaysia generally have to list in Australia or Canada, there is no support for capital funding, government promotion and tax breaks, etc... its all oil and gas oil and gas. Borneo Oil is actually showing how it can be done, without bank funding.

Plus they are not just talking about it, they are themselves putting in more than RM100m cash into it (after paying for controlling shares in Borneo Oil).

d) Valuation - No baggage, profitable in a turnaround, massive cleanup in par value reduction recently, 10 sen par with good outlook, professionally proven owners, an undervalued sector that is ripe for harvesting in a coordinated fashion ... plus an inventive rights and free warrants exercise. I put forth a fair value range before going ex of RM1.00-RM1.25.

Negatives

a) As in any mining concern, commodity price fluctuations are part and parcel of being in that business. If prices suddenly get depressed for an extended, mines will have to close temporarily to reduce cost. However, it all depends on the cost of the mining leases that they obtained. If it was deep value then they will only make less money in depressed markets. As explained above, owing to the structure of the industry locally, it is highly likely that the mining leases came at very attractive levels.

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). I may already have positions in the stock mentioned above. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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The Edge:

Borneo Oil Bhd has proposed a 1-for-6 renounceable rights issue of up to 2.374 billion shares at an indicative issue price of 10 sen per share, together with 1-for-2 free detachable warrants (warrants C) of up to 1.187 billion warrants, at an entitlement date to be determined later.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia this evening, Borneo oil said it intend to raise a minimum gross proceeds of RM223.39 million, the bulk of which will be channeled into the exploration of gold and limestone mining activities, working capital for fast food operations, future investments and repayment of bank borrowings.

Borneo Oil said its substantial shareholders – Victoria Ltd (25.48%) and Hap Seng Insurance Services Sdn Bhd (16.72%) have pledged to subscribe in full for their respective entitlements, while the public portion of the right Issue will be underwritten by RHB Investment Bank Bhd.

The issuance of the rights issue and free warrants are expected to enlarge Borneo Oil’s issued capital to 3.956 billion shares from 372.319 million shares currently.

Borneo Oil is the exclusive sub-contractor for the exploration and mining of alluvial and lode gold in three districts in Pahang — Mukim Batu Yon, Lipis; Hutan Simpan Hulu Jelai, Lipis; and Hutan Simpan Bukit Ibam, Rompin — covering a total of 1,565.1ha.

The group also operates a 389.743-acre limestone mining operation in Ulu Segama, Lahad Datu, Sabah.

“In the longer term, the company harbours ambitions to become a major player in the gold mining industry domestically and regionally, with the ultimate objective of constantly expanding and strengthening its business base in order to always maximise returns for loyal shareholders.

“The board of directors is confident that, with the addition of the gold mining business starting to come to fruition, these positive developments augur well for the financial performance of Borneo Oil in both the foreseeable and long-term future,” Borneo Oil said in a media statement, adding that it expects to complete the transaction by the third quarter of this year (3Q15).

The indicative issue price of 10 sen per rights share represents a discount of approximately 41.11% to its theoretical ex-price of 16.98 sen per share, which was based on the five-day weighted average market price of 79.8 sen that was calculated up to April 21, 2015.“For illustrative purpose only, the gross proceeds that is expected to be raised upon full exercise of the warrants C based on the indicative exercise price of 10 sen per share is approximately RM111.70 million under the minimum scenario and approximately RM118.69 million under the maximum scenario,” the group said.

Borneo Oil added that the gross proceeds to be raised from the exercise of the warrants C will be used as additional working capital.'

LAST week a broker got an order from a client who has not bought or sold shares for the past three years. The client, who is retired, placed an order to buy shares in Sumatec Resources Bhd at 61 sen.

Sumatec was among the few stocks that saw heavy volume being traded last week. The broker advised the elderly man that he should not be taken in by the euphoria that the market had seen last week, with trading volumes hitting record high of more than 7.6 billion shares in a single day.

Apart from Sumatec, the bulk of the shares were traded in two other stocks, namely, Globaltec Formation Bhd and PDZ Holdings Bhd. The three stocks have a combined market capitalisation of RM2.6bil, which is a fraction of the entire market capitalisation of Bursa Malaysia that stood at RM1.76 trillion yesterday.

The elderly retail investor did not listen to the broker’s advice. Sumatec ended at 45 sen that day. Now, the retail investor has to wait for Sumatec to recover or lose a few thousand ringgit if he chooses to sell.

The large trading volumes of stocks should not be a reason for retail investors to invest in stocks. Fundamentals should be the primary reason. The large volume is a game for a select group of market participants called proprietary day traders, or better known as stockists.

There are about 80 of them attached to various brokerages in Bursa Malaysia. Their job is to trade for the brokerage as principals. They don’t have any clients. The stockists can buy and sell as much as they want in a day. There is no limit imposed.

They are not imposed any brokerage fees but have to pay stamp duty and clearing fee to Bursa Malaysia based on the value of trades done. The duty is capped at RM250 or less, while the clearing fee is minimal.

A brokerage will normally place their stockists in a room where they conduct their buying and selling operations with minimum disruptions. Even phone calls are restricted.

The stockists can short-sell stocks without having the shares in hand. But they have to cover their positions by buying back from the market before the end of the day’s trading.

The profit from buying and selling are shared between the brokerage and the stockist. Normally 60% goes to the brokerage and the trader gets 40%. However, an “ace stockist” can command up to 90% of the profits. But the stockist has to absorb all the losses.

Normally, the brokerage will hold the profits of the stockist and pay out only after a year. An ace stockist can earn RM10mil or more a year by just being a principal stockist for the company.

But there are limitations to what a stockist can do to generate the volume of stocks. They generally shy away from stocks that are more than RM1 and that have a small paid-up capital.

Apart from having to incur a higher clearing fee, normally stocks that are held tightly tend not to have enough shares in the market to generate the volume without causing a substantial rise in the price.

The typical targets for a stockist are stocks that are priced at less than RM1 and that have a large share capital. For instance, Globletec Formation, which is an amalgamation of three stocks that were involved in manufacturing automotive components, has a capital of more than 5 billion shares.

Some companies like to see the activities of the stockist because it supposedly adds excitement to the market, not to mention to the stock as well.

But there is also a view that the stockists hold an unfair advantage over the normal investors because they can short a stock or take long positions several bids higher.

This allows a few stockists to “gang up” and deliberately cause a panic sell-down of a particular stock.

In jurisdictions such as Hong Kong, while short-selling is allowed, there are rules that prevent deliberate sell-downs. Anyway, this volume game of trading in stocks is not for retailers. It is only for the traders of the market where the risk and returns are high.

For retailers, ultimately value investing is the game. Value stocks may not have the kind of volume one would like to see nor would it be cheap. But it attracts the kind of investors who generally take a long-long term view.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc, the flagship listed entity of Warren Buffett crossed the US$205,000 per share mark last week, making it the highest-priced stock on the New York Stock Exchange. Despite calls from shareholders to split the stock, Buffett has stayed firm in refusing to undertake such an exercise on the grounds that it would attract a “different breed” of investors that he does not fancy.

A hard-to-trade stock encourages investors to take a long-term view and cuts out those trading on emotions. This is something retail investors should take heed of. The volume game in trading stocks is not their cup of tea. It is only for a select few.

Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

1. Chartwise, expect SP Setia to retest the last low of RM2.80 and move much further down. 2. Should there be a dead cat bounce due to short-covering — Sell into strength, run road fast.3. The cash call (rights issue of up to 1.07b new RCPS-i and rhe 19 sen dividend entitlement have already been priced in.4. The BREXIT -ve impact has not been priced-in yet (re Performance chart below).Performance chart ~ Malaysian firms with exposure to UK and/or EU ~ 4 Jul 2016

Although your call for Sell into strength, run road fast was correct previously but unexpected news from BNM yesterday boost up some property stocks and so temporary short term uptrend seen. I know it won't last but enjoy while it lasts......

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Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

Although your call for Sell into strength, run road fast was correct previously but unexpected news from BNM yesterday boost up some property stocks and so temporary short term uptrend seen. I know it won't last but enjoy while it lasts......

A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, followed by the continuation of the downtrend. A dead cat bounce is a small, short-lived recovery in the price of a declining security, such as a stock. Frequently, downtrends are interrupted by brief periods of recovery - or small rallies - where prices temporarily rise. This can be a result of traders or investors closing out short positions or buying on the assumption that the security has reached a bottom. A dead cat bounce is a price pattern that is usually identified in hindsight. Analysts may attempt to predict that the recovery will be only temporary by using certain technical and fundamental analysis tools.

A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, followed by the continuation of the downtrend. A dead cat bounce is a small, short-lived recovery in the price of a declining security, such as a stock. Frequently, downtrends are interrupted by brief periods of recovery - or small rallies - where prices temporarily rise. This can be a result of traders or investors closing out short positions or buying on the assumption that the security has reached a bottom. A dead cat bounce is a price pattern that is usually identified in hindsight. Analysts may attempt to predict that the recovery will be only temporary by using certain technical and fundamental analysis tools.

Disclaimer: Every "I EAT" thread created were totally owned by Oly Shyte based on personal observation. It does not represent any stock promotion, buy, hold or sell call and most importantly gathering followers. Please make your own decision wisely! - OLY Securities Research

A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, followed by the continuation of the downtrend. A dead cat bounce is a small, short-lived recovery in the price of a declining security, such as a stock. Frequently, downtrends are interrupted by brief periods of recovery - or small rallies - where prices temporarily rise. This can be a result of traders or investors closing out short positions or buying on the assumption that the security has reached a bottom. A dead cat bounce is a price pattern that is usually identified in hindsight. Analysts may attempt to predict that the recovery will be only temporary by using certain technical and fundamental analysis tools.

CNMC gapped down with a spinning top and traded @ S$0.395 (-0.065, -14.1%) with 30.7m shares done on 22 Jul 2016 at 0950 hrs.

Immediate support @ S$0.335, immediate resistance @ S$0.43.

CNMC expects no issue as Kelatan govt review mining application

By Wong Wei Han22 July 2016

SINGAPORE - Malaysia-based gold mining firm CNMC Goldmine has been notified by the Kelantan State Lands and Mines Office to temporarily stop its operations at the Sokor gold field.

The order came on Tuesday (July 19) as part of Kelantan state government's review of CNMC's application for large scale operation status, which will remove the mining amount limitation for its Sokor operations, CNMC said in an announcement on Thursday (July 21).

CNMC added that it has worked closely with the relevant authorities and joint-venture partner Kelantan State Economic Development Corporation to ensure the application meets all the requirements.

"The board is of the opinion that the temporary stop-work order should be lifted in due course," the announcement added.

CNMC shares were last traded at 46 Singapore cents on Tuesday. The company has requested to lift the trading halt.