Their conclusion: The best predictors of race performance were age, previous best half-Ironman time, goal time, and importance of reaching this goal.

I didn't read the whole article either, but quite a few obvious variables that clearly make a difference in race performance or finish time. How much the 'importance of reaching this goal' effected their finish time would be interesting. High correlation between the other predictors.

My guess is that previous best HIM time is best predictor of finish time especially for well trained not new to the sport athletes.

I'll have like to look at the full study at some point, but it's important to remember that correlation is not causation. Without looking at the actual study my gut is saying that of course a faster athlete is going to have a shorter goal time.

I do find the goal-setting component intriguing based on my own experience over the last couple of years.

I had been locked into primarily doing LSD runs with my pace dictated by HR, while avoiding anything that could be considered speed work. In fact, I was fearful of attempting any speedwork based on stuff I had read and my own history of knee and Achilles injuries. I was 'comfortable' with my training and my average pace was improving, but slowly.

Last year I decided to shake things up a bit and do some 'fun' 5K's leading up to my annual HM. I surprised myself at how well I did. It was a revelation discovering that I could actually run faster. It seemed to lift some psychological barriers and resulted in resetting my goals and expectations. It's also carried over to my cycling.

About the same time I stopped using the HRM and started training exclusively by RPE instead.

I'm certainly still no speed demon, and have the advantage of aging up to M60-64 this year, but at the same time I've set PRs at several races and have placed in the top five in my age group in all of the sprint tri's I've done this year. There's still a huge, probably insurmountable, gap between me and the top guys in my AG, but it's a nice feeling to be more competitive and realizing that I have more upside potential than I thought.

I also have yet to read the full study (it's paid access, but hopefully at work I can get it for free).

A well designed study and statistical analysis would control for the "obvious" that faster triathletes set faster goal times. FOr triathletes with statistically similar previous race times, does setting a faster goal time lead to faster times?

It's a very interesting question that plays into mental and emotional approaches to training and racing.