EVENTS

Teleconference: Syria’s Idlib: Challenges and Expectations

On Monday, September 17, THO hosted a
teleconference on “Syria’s Idlib: Challenges and Expectations.”

The teleconference was moderated by THO
Executive Director Elvir Klempic and featured the following speakers:

Yahya Al Aridi– Spokesperson, Syrian Negotiations
Commission

Aylin Unver Noi – Associate Professor, Istinye University

Mouaz Moustafa – Executive Director, Syrian Emergency
Taskforce

Commenting on a question regarding the
stalled peace negotiations between Turkey, Russia, and Iran, Yahya Al Aridi
begun the decision by providing a brief overview of the how that war in Syria
has shaped out since its beginning, and the different powers involved. Keeping
the current situation Mr. Aridi started by mentioning that Idlib has over 3
million Syrian civilians. From the beginning of the Syrian conflict, Turkey
played a role because of its geopolitical location, the fear of a humanitarian
crisis, and the number of refugees crossing Turkey’s border. As time passed
outside powers were slowly getting involved into conflict, starting with Russia
coming to the aid of the Syrian regime in order to counter UN resolutions in
regards to ceasefires, amongst other resolutions. Later, Iran would become
involved, according to Mr. Aridi this was a trick by Russia in order to balance
things to its advantage in the conflict. Mr. Aridi went on to explain that
Idlib is different than the rest of Syria and Idlib is of a national security
concern to Turkey, the targeting by Russians and Iranians have caused harm to
civilians in the area.

Ms. Univer Noi went on to explain that Idlib
is important because this is the last remaining territory which belongs to the
Syrian opposition, and is now a target by numerous attacks by Russian and
Syrian forces. Ms. Univer Noi noted that Turkey fears that a massive attack
will trigger a large wave of refugees from the region to Turkey. She went on to
explain that this is not just a problem for Turkey, but a problem for Europe in
general, this is the first time that the opposition and the government in
Turkey support taking measures to prevent a refugee crisis in Idlib. Ms. Univer
Noi also mentioned the growing disparity in the views of refugees among
European countries, noting the actions taken by some nations to prevent
refugees from crossing their borders.

Mouaz Moustafa continued the discussion by
explaining the current situation on the ground in Idlib. Mr. Moustafa went on
to say that it is important to remember that Assad cannot declare military
victory unless he takes Idlib. He went on to explain that wanting to bombard
and occupy Idlib is something the Assad regime believes is very important,
because this is the final chapter before they turn to the East.

Touching on the expectations in Idlib, Mr.
Moustafa mentioned that a postponement of a much larger more intense offensive
is credit to Turkey’s military and diplomatic core, now he also added that the
question is if a military offensive can be completely prevented? He added the
international community and the United States have to play a much bigger role
and have to understand that Turkey remains a strategic ally, and understand how
to align our policy with Turkey in a way that can help prevent a more massive
refugee flow.

Mr. Aridi added on to say that the United
States can definitely play a more important role, he also noted that it has
been evident the strategy in Syria has changed with the Trump administration. All
three speakers agreed that a strong U.S.-Turkey cooperation is what’s needed in
order to curb the moves of Russia and the Assad regime. Mr. Aridi furthermore
added that sometimes a misunderstanding of objectives and issues prevents the
U.S. and Turkey from cooperating in the area, however according to Mr. Aridi, the
emerging issues in Idlib give an opportunity for the two sides to once again
cooperate, given that both sides are against a massive attack in Idlib, and of
course against a chemical attack.