Maragos said the $2.8 billion budget, which contains no tax or spending increases over last year’s budget, carries a budgetary risk of only 11 percent on a NIFA GAAP basis. However, that doesn’t mean the numbers can’t go south for Nassau.

“The county 2013 budget, albeit conservative, has little margin for error due to the low fund reserves, limited contingencies and the possibility of unexpected events,” Maragos said. “The following years beginning with 2014 will present increased fiscal challenges with rising costs, especially for pension contributions and relatively stagnant projected revenues.”

Maragos said he estimates budget gaps in the multi-year plan of $85.1 million in 2014, $114.5 million in 2015 and $163.5 million for 2016. As a result, he recommended Mangano eliminate the use of $10 million from the county’s dwindling $40.5 million reserve fund.