Several months before then-prime minister Stephen Harper called the 2015 federal election, the size of the federal workforce dipped below 314,000 — practically the same level as during the earliest months of his nearly decade-long reign.

But there was nothing remotely stable about what happened in between, when federal departments and agencies swiftly added more than 65,000 workers, then just as quickly cut the positions that had been created.

The topsy-turvy environment did little for efficiency, morale or clear thinking. But one unexpected result was a pronounced centralization of government in the National Capital Region.

It was a surprise because the Conservatives are strongest in the regions and outside the urban core, and might have been expected to shift some government operations away from the capital.

Yet the percentage of federal government employees working in Ottawa-Gatineau jumped to 39.3 per cent of the total last May from 33 per cent in May 2006, according to data supplied by Statistics Canada. The numbers are unadjusted for seasonal influences, but they are compiled using three-month moving averages to smooth out fluctuations.

Since May, the centralizing trend has reversed somewhat, but this reflects the one-time impact of the Oct. 19 federal election — which featured a mini-hiring boom of election helpers, mostly outside the capital region. Even so, the number of federal government workers in Ottawa-Gatineau — 131,500 in November — was 38.4 per cent of the total.

The question is: Why did the concentration here rise? It’s unlikely top bureaucrats deliberately set out to achieve this result.

A significant factor has to do with alternatives available to government workers who might want to take advantage of buyouts and other downsizing incentives. When government was shrinking the most — from 2012 to 2014 — the economies in the western provinces in particular were strong.

In the national capital region, the opposite was true. The Conservatives weren’t just trimming direct federal government employees, they were also squeezing budgets for hiring professional services. Not only that, but the high-tech industry locally appears to have stalled — at least with respect to hiring.

This is in sharp contrast with the situation in the late 1990s, when the federal government last embarked on a major downsizing. At the peak of the tech boom, the percentage of the federal government workforce based in Ottawa-Gatineau slipped to just 30 per cent of the total, as many former government employees jumped to fast-growing firms in the private sector.

Another factor that might have supported the recent centralizing pattern has to do with the internal politics of federal departments. Employees close to the head office are likely better able to safeguard positions here — or to identify other positions in the capital that might soon come open.

Whatever the reasons for the move to the government core, it presents the new Liberal administration with an interesting choice. The government’s spending plans suggest more hiring is in store for federal workers. Liberal cabinet ministers might find it difficult to resist the urge to steer new hiring to where the economy is weakest.

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