Friday, April 27, 2007

NFL Draft Mania! As fans debate who will go No. 1 overall to the Raiders (JaMarcus Russell? Calvin Johnson? Brady Quinn), consider that a year ago, everyone figured Reggie Bush an "anything-else-would-be-insane" lock to the Texans at No. 1... right up until they drafted DE Mario Williams.

*That's the first intrigue: Who's No. 1? What happens there will reverberate through the rest of the Top 10 (and perhaps the rest of the first round, if it triggers some much-desired trade activity).

*Then: What will Matt Millen do to screw up the No. 2 pick for the Lions? If Calvin Johnson is available, he'd be crazy to not pick him – but it would be ANOTHER first-round WR.

(Rumor has it that the Lions are entertaining a trade with the Falcons to swap the 2 and 8 picks. Good move for Detroit: Takes them off the hot seat and allows them to pick the Best Player Available at less cost. Great move for Atlanta: They need Calvin Johnson. Woof!)

*At No. 3, will the Browns go for a franchise QB (Quinn or Russell) or a franchise RB (Adrian Peterson)? Whoever doesn't get taken might slide down the Top 10. (Prediction: Browns pick Quinn.)

*Which players with spotty backgrounds will get caught in the league's new "character" filter? CB Eric Wright of UNLV will be the case to watch. (Prediction: He'll still go high.)

*What about my personally favorite player in the draft, Florida S Reggie Nelson, who I've heard is sliding? I think he'll be next year's Defensive Rookie of the Year. My prediction: The Pats trade up to get him.

*How many "analysts" and "experts" will use 19-year-old Amobi Okoye's high-first-round draft selection to point out that he effectively implodes the rationale behind the NFL's "age-limit" rules? (Prediction: Not nearly enough.)

So many more storylines, which you can feel free to add in the Comments section. (And, if you're live-blogging the Draft, send me the link to your blog. Happy to add it to the list I'll publish.)

I'll have a live-comment post set up tomorrow for the entire draft weekend.

Roger Goodell floated the idea of moving the Super Bowl overseas sometime in the next decade. I will be the first on the record to say it: That is the single worst idea in the history of sports.

I like the logic: If they want to play more overseas games during the regular season (which they do), it ensures that fans don't lose a precious home game, which was my biggest problem with the international games.

Talk also swirls around eliminating a preseason game in order to find room on the schedule. That would be another move that would be met with universal approval. Everyone hates the preseason.

Some statistician is going to do the dirty work, but qualitatively, it feels like even a single extra regular-season game would make the playoff races vastly more intriguing. (OK: Fantasy playoff races.)

The biggest implication? How about in the record books: An extra game could be the difference between breaking records, topping 2,000 yards rushing and hitting performance bonuses.

(And don't even think about asterisks: Baseball went from 154 games to 162 games, and no one bothers to differentiate records set over the different season lengths.)

We'll see what the players' association has to say about it. An extra game means extra mileage on players, extra chances for injury, etc.

The fact that this is going to be big news speaks to just how precious and valued those 16 games are. To add another? What fan wouldn't want that?

Schilling's Bloody Sock: Gary Thorne backtracked that he must have misunderstood Doug Mirabelli's sarcasm about the sock's blood really being paint. So, apparently, Thorne was punk'd.

Here is Curt Schilling's response to the mini-scandal, via his blog 38Pitches. It's the best example yet of Schilling short-circuiting the traditional media filter through which players connect with fans. Say this: I enjoyed Schilling's entry a lot more than I would have enjoyed a column by a Boston Globe apologist that used a few of Curt's quotes.

Yankees-Red Sox hits the Bronx: I want to know if Yankees fans will take the "Schilling's Bloody Sock Was Fake" story and run with it, even though Thorne was debunked.

Lakers beat Suns in L.A.: Conventional wisdom says that a 7-game playoff series doesn't really heat up until a home team loses. Kobe (45 pts) and the Lakers staved off inevitable elimination with a W at home.

In another example, the Jazz (down 0-2) beat the Rockets in Utah. Here's a wild stat for you: The Jazz bench outscored the Rockets' bench 33-0. I'd say that was a difference-maker.

And here you go: The Pistons thumped the Magic in Orlando to take a 3-0 series lead and effectively slam the door on any remote chance Orlando had of winning this series. Even taking a single game seems iffy.

Is Jason Kidd's knee going to keep him out of Game 3 vs. the Raptors? If so, it's going to be a big Toronto win in Jersey.

Sonics moving to...Vegas? I thought OK City was a lock, but it sounds like Vegas is going to make the new Sonics owners an offer they can't refuse. And shouldn't refuse. The NBA in Vegas -- the first major sports team in Vegas, actually -- will be huge. Sorry, Seattle: No sympathy when the alternative is Sin City.

MLB: What an exciting week for Torii Hunter. First he sends champagne to the Royals (for which he's punished by MLB). Then he gets hit in the mouth with a pitch by Royals SP Zach Greinke. For Torii: TGIF.

Michael Vick and Dog-Fighting: PETA has gotten involved calling for Vick's suspension pending further investigation into his involvement in an alleged dog-fighting ring at a house he owns. Catfight!

Meanwhile, ProFootballTalk nailed it: Forget an easy suspension like Pac-Man Jones or Chris Henry. What does the Commissioner do about a player who is as big of a superstar as Vick?

NCAA bans text messaging: I think we'll look back on the last few years of unencumbered texting as a Golden Age for recruiting. Memo to the NCAA: You can TRY to stop technological progress, but you can't. Luddites. Urban Meyer's thumbs will find other ways to be useful.

NBA Draft: PG Javaris Crittenton joins teammate Thaddeus Young in the NBA Draft. Crittenton instantly is one of the Top 3 PGs in the draft, along with Mike Conley and Acie Law. And he's 6-foot-5, which should have scouts panting. He's a first-round lock.

Jeffrey Jordan Watch: MJ's son will be walking on at Illinois, thus ending the dream all Northwestern fans had of JJ leading NU to the NCAA Tournament. Or the NIT. (Whatever. They'd be on TV more and maybe upgrade from adidas sneaks to Jordan Brand.)

52 comments:

I'm one who doesn't want to see another game added. Unless they get rid of one preason game, then maybe. I just see no need to extend the season by a game. What's the purpose of it besides lining the owners pockets more? A 17 games makes no sense as you'll create an unbalance and between the number of home and away games and a competitive disadvantage between teams. They'ld have to expand to 18 games to keep things fair.

I agree that the NFL has to strike while the iron is hot, but I think they may be trying to expand too much too quickly. The NFL network is a joke and the production on their broadcasted games was pathetic. The NBA tried expanding itself quickly in the early 90s and look what happened. But I'll admit I'm part of the minority, I love watching the games and whatnot during the season but I don't hang around waiting to see what free agents my team will pick up and will absolutely not waste an entire day sitting around watching the draft.

Your rationale for not using asterisks for records in a 17-game football season does not really hold up. For ease of use, we'll disregard the fact that baseball was only 120-130-ish games in the very early 1900s and we'll disregard the fact that football played 12-game seasons in Jim Brown's day. Going from a 154-game schedule to a 162-game schedule in baseball is merely a 5% increase. However, football has gone from 14 games to potentially 17 games in my lifetime. That's a 21% increase! How many more yards would The Juice have gotten in 1973 if he had 3 more games to work with? I wasn't around for Jim Brown during the 12-game years, but imagine if he had 42% more season to accumulate yardage! Perhaps it's time to start ranking players by yards-per-game, rather than mere totals. Remember when Roy Munson thought that Ishmael was a 280 bowler, only to find out he had 5 extra frames? Same thing.

I completely disagree with jhawkjim on the extra game. Dan's got it right, even the players and coaches think the pre-season is horrible. Everyone makes out well with the extra game, and with 17 games, there would be less tiebreakers going 4 levels down.

It's awfully harsh to call Phil Hughes a dud! It was his first start for a struggling team with a struggling bullpen and the teams offense got blanked. If he had given up 5 runs in 1 inning, that would be a dud.

The Super Bowl overseas is a horrible idea and I cant imagine anyone really supporting it.

As for guys with a spotty character dropping in the draft, I dont think it makes much difference if he is a 1st rounder or a 5th rounder. He is still on someone's roster. He just is a cheaper write off if he screws up. The issue is that teams have to find a way to reign in these guys' and make them see they cant get arrested every week.

I dont think a 17th game would be good either. It would make the record books obsolete. I agree with lance a boyle about the juice and Jim Brown. Not to mention someone like Johnny U, who threw for over 40,000 yards and 290 TDs playing in 12 game seasons with rules that held back the passing game.

You can't have a 17 game schedule...unless the 17th game is at a neutral site (which would be a logistic nightmare to create). jhawkjim is right, it would be monumentally unfair to the teams that have 9 road games. Perhaps that could be the first tiebreaker to *try* to even things out.

Or the Dark Ages of recruiting. I'm not sure I'm on board with high school kids getting tons of text messages a day from college coaches. I know the coaches will now just latch on to something else, but it would be nice if recruiting weren't quite so... creepy.

And please, I don't even want to know what you're imagining about Urban's thumbs.

I think moving to a 17 game season is a bad idea like others have mentioned with it being an unbalanced schedule. I don't see a need. If you look now so many big time players don't make it through a 16 game season healthy. Besides, you can't compare baseball going from 154-162 since football has gone from 12 to 14 to 16 in the past 50 years.

Also, the idea of the Super Bowl being played overseas may be the dumbest thing I've ever heard. The NFL is already huge, I don't see foreign countries embracing it just like we'll never fully embrace soccer.

Here's an idea I thought up for the bloody sock if it wasn't in the hall of fame: I don't like the Yankees or the Red Sox but I'd love to see some rich Yankee fan/celebrity buy the sock and burn it since the Red Sox fans and players think it is such a big deal to have a bloody sock. Schilling's performance then was impressive, blood or no blood.

how is vick not gonna be suspended. hes gotta be. I don;t want another game because it will incease injuries, what would be better would be the cutting of a preaseason game, and holding the sb overseas is very very dumb.

Think about it. It would be nearly logistically impossible to pull this off in a different time zone and to hold the game live. You couldn't do it in Europe, 5-7 hours ahead of EST, as that would mean you'd have to start the game there at 8pm local, meaning 1-3pm EST, or 10am-1pm PST. Asia is like, what, 15 hours ahead? So you'd have to play it overnight, which I don't see working.

So how would it work with time zones, unless you want to play the game in another country at a really terrible time, and thereby defeating the purpose of having the locals become interested in the game?

Joey gave me a great idea for a movie script. A couple bitter Yankee fans plot to break in to the Hall of Fame and steal the "bloody sock." They then hold it for ransom and after teasing the Red Sox fans, burn it in front of Fenway Park.

Another thing with the Superbowl is how many tickets are actually made available to fans and how expensive would they be?

Without prior knowledge, I would say that a limited number or seats are available to the average fan(as compared to a reg. season game), and that tickets would be very expensive. There's no way that the demand for tickets in other countries would satisfy the large cost/ticket. So they lower ticket prices and all of a sudden a swarm of Americans buy them up anyway, thus making the reason for having the overseas games obsolete.

As far as the time zones are concerned, watching European soccer I know that, for example, a game in London that kicks off at 7:45, would be shown here at 2:45 ET, not sure how that would effect viewership because Super Sunday is an unofficial holiday anyway.

The only fairly valid criticism I heard about Hughes was that he doesn't hold runners particularly well with his high leg kick. Other than that he just did what every rookie starter does, nibbles too much and gets a little rattled that MLB hitters won't chase as much bad stuff.

After last year, with Verlander, Liriano, Papelbon, and Weaver, I think everyone just expects rookies to be awesome out of the gate, and that's just not how it goes.

overseas super bowl idea sucks...imagine if your team makes it to the super bowl for the first time(or in a long time) and that year it happens to be overseas. so if you want to go, not only do you have to pay exhorbitant money for the tix, but now you have super(no pun intended) expensive travel, not to mention the hassles involved. expanding internationally is not a bad idea, but leaving the roots for the championship game is ridiculous

Dan - you keep pushing this age limit thing like it is the most important story going. You have 3 age related posts in 2 days. No one has agreed with you on any of the posts, but you don't even pause to consider their criticism. Yes, Okoye might be a good pro. He also might be a dud. But, either way, that kid is an exception to ANY rule, as he is also a 19 year old college graduate. Rules are intended for the masses (Mike Williams and Maurice Clarett included), rather than for the eaches. I am sure that I would have been a very capable driver at 14. I had straight A's and I drove our farm trucks and tractors all the time. I guess the state should have waived the age requirement for me.

Here's some of what I posted yesterday in regards to Montana Ellis: Monta Ellis was a 2nd round pick, who signed a 3 year contract for $1.8M.

Assume that if he plays one year of college, he jumps to the 1st round (the last guard taken was Mardy Collins by the Knicks). Collins contract is $1.8M for 2 years. Gee, one year of college and end up making the same money? That's assuming that he would only move up 10 places in the draft. If he had a great college year, let's assume he'd move to a lottery pick: the last lottery pick gaurd was Thabo Sefolosha, who signed a contract worth $3.5M in the first two years. The first guard taken (Brandon Roy) signed for $5.4M in the first 2 years. Think Ellis would trade one year of college for two to three times as much money over the same time period?

Again, there have been 50 HS players declare eligible since 1995. 41 have been drafted, 2 have been ROY, and only 8 have ever played in an all-star game. There are some up and coming young prep-to-pros stars, but they are only a success story if they make an impact in their FIRST Year. After that, we're comparing them to Carmelo Anthony. 'Melo made $10M in his first 3 years. Think Ellis would want 6 times what he is making now?

Stop with the age limits! no one cares. Or, at least address the 30 or so comments that have refuted you, since your only logic is it's unfair. It's also unfair that an 18 year old kid serving in Baghdad can't have a beer at home to celebrate a safe return!

Vick should get the book thrown at him...can't you find anything better to do with your time than to fight flippin' dogs!? What a moron.

The Super Bowl overseas would be the dumbest thing ever. I agree with previous points made about time change, etc. It's our football league ...why would someone even think of taking it to another country so that we'd have to watch the game at 3 AM or spend a ton of money to go? It's bad enough it is played on a Sunday night and we feel like crap at work the next day.

Wait, if they moved it to Timbuktu, the Browns would probably make it!!! Yee-haw!

Okoye is the exception, the rule has more to do with player maturity than performance, I doubt anyone in the league would argue Reggie Bush couldn't compete in the NFL at 19, it was more about how he would handle himself in the pressure filled arena of the NFL. If Okoye can graduate and put himself in a situation to succeed, all the power to him, if Sebastian Telfair could've done the same I doubt anyone would be ripping him for his off court incidents...because they probably wouldn't have happened. The NBA is right in imposing an age limit, they should probably look to up it to 3 years, similar to the NFL, in order to let their players grow up a little. It's not always about the level of performance, sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture and worry about the image of the league...although the Pacman Jones' of the world will always give us something to talk about.

I don't think Philip Hughes really deserves the blame for the Yankees - it's the front office and the people who put this team together that deserve the blame.

They can say how the addition of Wang will help right the ship all they want but the fact remains that the Yankees went into the season with 2 pitchers (Wang, Pettite) who they could rely on at all, and Andy is about 50 years ago.

Pavano is a proven disaster so him getting injured can't be seen as much of a surprise.

Hughes is 20 - he has no business being called up already so him struggling isnt that big of a shocker either.

Who else is there in that rotation that has performed below expectation? Other than Rivera I think the Yankees pitching staff is what we thought they were to use a Denny Green phrase.

On the flip side Josh Beckett went 8 strong last night to make sure the Red Sox bullpen is fully ready for a weekend series with the Bombers - I expect the Sox to win 2 of the 3 games, but make a strong move for another sweep and huge problems in NY.

Did the "moving the Superbowl" story specifically say "overseas" or just out of the country? Mexico City would probably work out OK. It still has the highest attendance ever for an American Football game (49ers-Cowboys pre-season, I think). Time Zones would work, travel (air, hotel) might even be cheaper than Miami/NO/et al.

I think moving the Super Bowl overseas would be a great idea. It's already at a neutral site, most of the tickets go to corporate sponsors anyway, and people spend a fuck ton already on tickets. What's a little more for transportation? You can get pretty cheap flights to London during that time of year anyway. You're not going to be losing a rabid fan base because that doesn't really exist during the Super Bowl.

And the time zone thing could easily work in London or somewhere else. If the game starts at 8pm in London (not a ridiculous starting time for games in Europe), then that starts at 3pm on the East Coast (the time the Super Bowl starts on the West Coast now), and Noon on the West Coast. You have to remember that Americans already watch Europe based sports without too much inconvenience like either soccer or the olympics.

I think Goodell is going to have to do something about Vick. This is the real test because he's a marquee name. Pacman is a rookie, Henry is eh, and Tank has his coming for obvious reason. None of those are marketed by the NFL. If nothing is done, an ugly double standard will be set. Similar to the "superstar" treatment in the NBA.

The subject was mentioned as an aside, but I feel the need to stand on a soap-box: soccer's popularity in USA.

The biggest hindrance with it's popularity in the US is the way the match time is kept. Two 45 minute halves don't allow for commercials. As long as corporate America is deterred from invested in a sport, said sport will NEVER become "mainstream."

Whereas basketball (NCAA Tourney) has a timeout at the "under 14 minute" mark regardless of whether or not at the last dead ball a team called a TO. NFL is littered with opportunities to go to commercial.

Ummmm....what's that supposed to mean. They tried fucking around with the timing system when MLS first started, all that resulted in was the loss of true soccer fans and the expected lack of gain of "casual" or non-traditional viewers. I, a soccer fan, refuse to watch MLS now (on TV) because in the middle of each half is a commercial where they shrink the game to a postage stamp and turn off the audio while the commercial plays. People just need to realize that soccer will never be more than a niche sport in the US and that would suit me just fine!!!

And another thing, I can't stand watching basketball because of all the tv timeouts and football isn't much better either! I've never watched an NBA game on tv and I likely never will and I watched less football last year than I've ever have. I can't take the increasing time for tv timeouts.

Verbal:Soccer = niche US sport; that was the point I was trying to make. It can't go primetime without sponsors. Flip the coin though, you're right: NBA, NCAA, NFL games suck with all the TOs. Even the players look bored just standing around (when at a game). Going to pro games these days is mind-numbing.

chipp & verbal97 - There'd be no way to change the timing; well, I guess you could but that would be stupid for the game. And to what verbal said, I don't think many people watch games for the commercials (women & the super bowl excepted), so I think the lack of them isn't a reason why people don't watch soccer as much. It's more of a bonus if anything; it's nice being able to get through a 90 minute soccer match in about 1:50 while it takes about 3:30 for a 60 minute basketball or football game. That is a disadvantage to the TV stations though. It should be up to the marketing department to determine how to recover that lost potential revenue.

Add a 17th game for every team and have the 16 games plyed between overseas and sorta making Los Angelas a city for all. Give them 8 games each year just like every other NFL city it would be a fix for LA atleast until they get a fracnchise eventually. Also give San Antonio a couple games each year. They earned it hosting New Orleans in 2005.

The way soccer makes money is by advertising on the field and on the shirts. MLS is just now starting shirt sponsorships. They would do well to add sideline billboards and virtual billboards on the endlines like in Europe. That way tv viewers can see multiple ads throughout the whole game without stopping for commercials.

1. Can't wait for tomorrow's draft2. figuring the raiders take russell (which, as you said, after last year is no sure thing), the lions really control the draft.3. if they take best player available, johnson's theirs.4. but do they try to trade and get out of a tough spot?5. if they do, we have to consider who's detroit's guy?6. gaines adams? joe thomas?7. if it's one of those guys who they really want, they have to be careful where they trade.8. if they trade with the ATL, will adams or thomas be around? probably not.9. better, they trade with TB, and chris simms and his fragile organs has someone to throw to.10. DET still gets their guy at No. 4 and probably snags TB's two second-rounders.11. whew!12. gonna be fun tomorrow!

What? Okeye being drafted top-15 has absolutely no bearing on the age limit. The only way you could say he's making the age limit look like a bad idea is if he comes in and contributes right away. That's the whole reason the age limit is there - so teams don't over-draft unpolished young kids who become busts, deteriorating the quality of the league. And, of course, Okeye is not your normal 19-year-old, mentally speaking.

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.