Running Back and Wide Receiver Gold Mining – Week 8

Welcome to week 8. The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: Yahoo Sports, NFL, FOX Sports, NumberFire, CBS: CBS Average, ESPN, FFToday, FantasySharks and FantasyFootballNerd. The data for this article was collected on 10/28/15. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining.

Standard Scoring League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Ronnie Hillman, Latavius Murray, Eddie Lacy, Alfred Blue and James Starks are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.

Doug Martin, Duke Johnson, Shane Vereen, Benny Cunningham and Robert Turbin are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.

On the other hand, Chris Johnson, Carlos Hyde, Eddie Lacy, Khiry Robinson and Bilal Powell are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Giovani Bernard, Ronnie Hillman, Alfred Blue, James Starks and Bilal Powell are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.

Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, Duke Johnson, Benny Cunningham and Mike Tolbert are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.

On the other hand, Eddie Lacy, Carlos Hyde, C.J. Spiller, Khiry Robinson and Bilal Powell are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Mike Wallace, Rishard Matthews and Marques Colston are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.

A.J. Green, Alshon Jeffery, John Brown, Anquan Boldin and Rishard Matthews are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.

On the other hand, Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Vincent Jackson, Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Rishard Matthews and Marques Colston are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.

John Brown, Kendall Wright, Rishard Matthews, Marvin Jones and Kenny Britt are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.

On the other hand, Michael Crabtree, Vincent Jackson, Dez Bryant, Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Just found your site last week, and it’s awesome! Is there a suggested way to use the gold mining data when the opponent’s projected score is very close to one’s own, or would you say that gets more into individual management style?

Not sure what you mean when you say things like “If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points?” Is this for season long leagues or also good for daily fantasy play? I just started playing daily fantasy football and looking for ways to find/calculate value in building lineups. Any help would be appreciated.

That particular advice is for seasonal leagues. I don’t play DFS, so I don’t know how to adapt the advice for DFS. The general point is simple: if you need more points, focus more on ceiling (but you are taking on more risk). If you want to be safer, focus more on floor (less risk, but you might score fewer points). It’s similar to investing—in order to get a higher return, you may have to take on higher risk. If you’re projected to win safely, focus on floor. If you’re projected to lose by a good bit, focus on ceiling.