Monday, May 17, 2010

Eeyore; or, Is the Future Now?

I woke up this morning, took a look at the Washington Post sports section, reconfirmed that Bruney was indeed designated for assignment and that Storen was joining the Nats in St. Louis, and thought to myself, "Storen today, Strasburg in a few weeks . . . maybe the Nats really are just like the 2008 worst-to-first Tampa Bay Rays." Immediate corrective thought: "No they're not, you asshole."

This post is mainly in the interests of keeping myself grounded so I don't float off in a Kool-Aidhaze like Tom Boswell. (Am I repeating myself? Maybe. But now that the Nationals are in OMG SECOND PLACE!!!1!! and Strasmas is nigh, tempering my own expectations is more relevant than it was last September.)

Apologies in advance for my inability to properly format tables in Blogger.

Why the 2010 Washington Nationals are not the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays

The Nationals may have sucked, but they haven't sucked enough

From 1998-2006, the Rays performed poorly enough to ensure that they selected eighth or better in the first round of the draft. The Rays selected first overall in 1999, 2003, and 2007.

TampaBay Rays First Round Picks 1999-2007

Year

Overall Pick

Name

Pos.

1999

1

Josh Hamilton

OF

2000

6

Rocco Baldelli

OF

2001

3

Dewon Brazelton

RHP

2002

2

BJ Upton

SS

2003

1

Delmon Young

OF

2004

4

Jeff Niemann

RHP

2005

8

Wade Townsend

RHP

2006

3

Evan Longoria

3B

2007

1

David Price

LHP

TampaBay Rays Second Round Picks 1999-2007

Year

Overall Pick

Name

Pos.

1999

52

Carl Crawford

OF

2001

47

Jon Switzer

LHP

2002

43

Jason Pridie

OF

2003

38

James Houser

LHP

2004

45

Reid Brignac

SS

2005

56

Christopher Mason

RHP

2006

47

Josh Butler

RHP

2007

65

Will Kline

RHP

TampaBay Rays Third Round Picks 1999-2007

Year

Overall Pick

Name

Pos.

1999

85

Doug Waechter

RHP

2001

79

Chris Finn

RHP

2002

74

Elijah Dukes

OF

2003

68

Andrew Miller

LHP

2004

75

Wade Davis

RHP

2005

88

Avery Morris

RHP

2006

79

Nichoals Fuller

RHP

2007

95

Nick Barnese

RHP

TampaBay Rays Fourth Round Picks 1999-2007

Year

Overall Pick

Name

Pos.

1999

115

Alex Santos

RHP

2001

109

Dave Bush

RHP

2002

104

Wes Bankston

OF

2003

98

Travis Schlichting

3B

2004

105

MatthewSpring

C

2005

118

Jeremy Hellickson

RHP

2006

109

Alexander Cobb

RHP

2007

125

David Newmann

LHP

Even factoring in failed draft picks and development busts, the Rays' near decade of on-field incompetence allowed them to stockpile a huge amount of talent. Moreover, the Rays' player development process apparently works. Nearly every single one of the Rays' 1999-2007 1st round picks developed into a major-league regular. Rounds 2-4 couldn't be expected to be as successful, but Carl Crawford and Elijah Dukes stand out. The Rays also drafted Aubrey Huff in the 5th round in 1998 and Seth McClung in the 5th round in 1999.

But successful drafting and player development does more than just replenish a team's major league roster -- it gives a team assets to trade. Just look at how the 2008 Rays were built:

Player

Acquired

Year

Grant Balfour

Trade w/MIL for Seth McClung

2007

Jason Bartlett

Trade w/MIN for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Jason Pridie

2007

Carl Crawford

Draft pick

1999

Cliff Floyd

Free agent

2007

Matt Garza

Trade w/MIN for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Jason Pridie

2007

Gabe Gross

Trade w/Brewers for Josh Butler

2008

Eric Hinske

Minor League contract

2008

J.P. Howell

Trade w/Royals for Joey Gathright,Fernando Cortez

2006

Akinori Iwamura

Free-agent signing

2006

Scott Kazmir

Trade w/Mets for Victor Zambrano,Bartolome Fortunato

2004

Evan Longoria

Draft pick

2006

Dioner Navarro

Trade w/Dodgers for Toby Hall, Mark Hendrickson

2006

Carlos Pena

Minor League contract

2007

Troy Percival

Free-agent signing

2007

David Price

Draft pick

2007

James Shields

Draft pick

2000

Andy Sonnanstine

Draft pick

2004

B.J. Upton

Draft pick

2002

Dan Wheeler

Trade w/Astros for Ty Wigginton

2007

Ben Zobrist

Trade w/Astros for Aubrey Huff

2006

Take away judicious (but still important) complementary free-agent signings like Iwamura, Percival, Floyd, and Pena, and nearly every major contributor to the 2008 Rays was a draft pick or traded for players the Rays had drafted and developed.

The Expos/Nationals haven't been nearly as successful at drafting and player development over the same span of years. The Nationals excel at promoting major-league ready 1st round picks to the major leagues, but struggle to develop those less-polished players that need time in the minor leagues. To wit: most of them. So far, the Expos/Nationals drafts have produced few major league regulars (Cordero, Zimmerman, too soon to tell on Desmond and Bernadina, please please Strasburg and Storen), and are still more notable for high profile washouts like Mike Hinckley and Colton Willems. And as for tradable commodities, there's little else after Derrick Norris and Danny Espinosa. The Nats don't have the goods to both service the major league roster and trade for established players.

The 2007 Tampa Bay Rays were already pretty close to being the 2008 Rays

Compare the rosters for the 2007 and 2008 Rays and you'll notice a lot of the same players. So why were the Rays so much better in 2008 than they were in 2007 and how do the 2010 Nats differ?

Better defense: The 2008 Rays allowed 273 fewer runs than the 2007 team. The 2010 Nats are on pace to allow 116 fewer runs, which is impressive, but it's not quite the dramatic defensive turnaround displayed by Tampa Bay.

Better pitching: The Rays replaced the unreliable Jason Hammel with the solid Matt Garza, every other Rays starter had a better year in 2008 than he did in 2007, and the team completely remade its bullpen for 2008. While the Nats' bullpen is markedly improved over 2009 (now that Bruney has been DFA'd), the starting pitching is still a jury rigged mess. St. Stephen is on his way, and Olsen looks good so far, but Livan/Lannan/Stammen is duct tape. The Nats' starting pitching still needs an overhaul.

Run production: The 2008 Rays scored eight fewer runs than the 2007 team while getting offensive contributions from more players. The Rays' improved 2008 bench, a better season from Navarro, and the additions of Longoria, Gross, and Floyd allowed the Rays to weather down years from Pena and Crawford while simultaneously providing enough pop to cover for all-glove no-bat Bartlett. The Nats are also on pace to score slightly fewer runs in 2010 than they did in 2009, but that's mainly because they have fewer sources of run production. Kennedy and Desmond are below-average, the bench is not so hot, and Nyjer Morgan is slowly failing (or, if you want to be charitable, merely slumping. Can one slump on the basepaths?) Zimmerman, Dunn, Willingham -- and then what? Hope Zombie Pudge is well-supplied with the brains that have him off to such a hot start (pay no attention to his lousy May)? The Nats' roster has a lot of offensive soft spots.

There's no need to create artificially elevated expectations by comparing the 2010 Nationals to the 2008 Rays

The 2008 Rays were a great story because they seemingly (if you weren't paying attention) came out of nowhere to go from last place in their division to first place. Worst-to-first was a great story with a compelling narrative arc that everyone was able to grasp the broad contours of even if they remained fuzzy on some of the details. It's not so easy to get excited about a multi-year rebuilding process. Pointing at the May standings and drooling over Strasburg and Storen might be good for short-term ticket sales, but is it the best way to convert the locals, who have mostly ignored the Nats? I'll be pretty damned happy if the team ends up doing something as miraculous as ending 2010 with a record close to .500, but how will all those new fans who were sold a shot at the Wild Card feel if the Nats are playing golf come October?

Even though I still have doubts about Rizzo and doubts about the Lerners, there's no denying anymore that the team is on the right track. Combine that with the aging Phillies roster, the Mets' boundless ineptitude, and the Marlins' self-destructive frugality, and it's not unreasonable to envision the Nats being truly competitive (with the right moves and the right breaks) as soon as 2011. There's no need to punch up the Nats' story when that story hasn't lacked for drama. From the front office housecleaning to signing Strasburg at the last minute to free agents viewing DC as a viable destination to the death of Nats Fail, the Nats have come a long way since the "Natinals" days. (Although Opening Day might have been the biggest fail of all. Never forget.) The Washington Nationals have their own story; they don't need some other team's.

* * *

In other words, is it still too early for this? Get back to me in September. Does that mean they shouldn't do something to improve their chances of making the playoffs this year, like maybe trading for Roy Oswalt? Not necessarily. (Besides, Roy is under contract for 2011, too. Possible 2011 rotation of Oswalt, Strasburg, Zimmermann, Wang, Olsen/Lannan/Stammen/Marquis excite you the way it excites me?)

1 comment:

bdrube
said...

Great post. I am still angry at MLB for the destruction of the Expos franchise during its ownership and the reign of error of GM Omar Minaya. Wouldn't the Nats have looked so much better in the past few years with Jason Bay, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore? Of course they would have.

Minaya traded away all of the Expos great young talent and MLB caused them to draft "signable" busts like Clint Everts and Josh Karp in the first round. Even Cordero was a signability pick. Plus you have to figure that the minor league system then became home to the management dregs who couldn't land jobs elsewhere, so there was little player development beyond round 1.

Then you turn things over to Leatherpants in 2005 and his addiction to the "toolsy" and the result is a lucky break with Zimmerman and Lannan in 2005 and no adults doing the drafting until last year.

If I blame the Lerners for anything it is for not firing Bowden when they bought the team and bringing in a real GM from the start. But hey, at least the team is competetive again and that is an important first step.