U-T Poll: DeMaio still leads, Fletcher surging

Fletcher wins head-to-head matchups against Filner, DeMaio

City Councilman Carl DeMaio holds a slim lead among registered voters in the San Diego mayor’s race but support for Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher has surged, creating a three-way heat a month before the June 5 primary, according to a new U-T San Diego Poll.

DeMaio, a Republican, leads the way with 22 percent while Democratic Rep. Bob Filner and Fletcher, an independent, are neck-and-neck for second place with 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Republican District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis is a distant fourth at 8 percent.

The race appears far from settled: 35 percent of city voters remain undecided.

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Compared to a similar U-T poll in mid-March, Fletcher’s support has increased 7 percentage points while his three rivals lost 2 points each. In head-to-head matchups among the top three, the new poll shows DeMaio defeating Filner while Fletcher beats both of them.

Between the two polls, Fletcher on March 28 announced that he was leaving the Republican Party to run as an independent. The move drew national attention and Fletcher followed up with a blitz of TV ads to raise his profile.

The poll, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday by the Glover Park Group in Washington, D.C., shows that nearly two-thirds of voters are aware of his defection from the party. Fletcher saw gains across party lines: a 7-point increase among Republicans, 5 points among Democrats and a 10-point bump from independents.

Each candidate continues to be viewed favorably, but Fletcher now tops the list with 43 percent of voters holding a positive opinion of him. In March, he was last at 34 percent. Dumanis, who had the highest favorability in March, now sits in fourth with 36 percent viewing her positively. Filner is at 38 percent and DeMaio is at 37 percent.

As in March, Filner still has the highest negatives with 28 percent of voters saying they view him unfavorably.

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The overall result of the four-way race is similar among self-described likely voters, though DeMaio gains a couple points. But he opens up a wider lead among those who have voted in the past five elections: DeMaio 33 percent, Filner 24 percent, Fletcher 19 percent and Dumanis 5 percent. Those numbers reflect the strength of one’s base, which could play an important role if it’s a low-turnout primary as some expect.

David Cantor, a managing director with the polling firm, said the two biggest take-aways are Fletcher’s surge and the consistent number of undecided voters.

“The race is fairly static, but there’s one outlier to that which is that Fletcher has moved,” he said. “Both in terms of his name recognition, people view him more favorably, and his status on the ballot has improved. He’s up significantly. He’s gained 7 points since March and he’s really the only one who has moved.”

The four candidates have been campaigning for 11 months now and the past few weeks have seen a flurry of activity that began with Fletcher’s departure from the Republican Party. They’ve raised more than $3.1 million combined and all but Filner have begun airing TV ads with early voting set to begin Monday.