Monday, November 05, 2012

What's up with Romney focusing on Pennsylvania?

Senior Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod said Mitt Romney's
visit to Pennsylvania shows the GOP nominee's campaign is in "deep trouble" and losing in the
traditional battlegrounds.

Axelrod told Chris Wallace on "Fox News
Sunday" that the Romney campaign's move into Pennsylvania is a sign of
desperation because they are
trailing in polls in Ohio, a state no Republican has won the election
without.

"The battleground states on which we have been focusing on are not
working
out for them," Axelrod said. "We're ahead in all of them and now are
looking for somewhere, desperately looking for somewhere to try and
dislodge some electoral votes to win this election. And I can tell you
that's not going to happen."

One
poll of Pennsylvania on Saturday, from Susquehanna Polling and
Research, showed a different result, with the two candidates tied at 47
percent. But in context, this is not such a great poll for Mr. Romney.

The
polling firm has had a very strong Republican lean this cycle — about
five percentage points relative to the consensus, a much larger lean
than firms like Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling that are
often criticized for having partisan results. Susquehanna is the only
pollster to have shown Mr. Romney ahead in Pennsylvania at any point in
the race, as they did on one occasion in February and another in October
(Mr. Romney led by four points in their previous poll of the state).
Perhaps they will be proven right, but it is usually a bad bet to bank
on the one poll rather than the many.

That
is probably a reasonable strategy, even though Mr. Romney's chances of
pulling out a victory in Pennsylvania are slim. What makes it reasonable
is that Mr. Romney's alternative paths to an Electoral College victory
are not looking all that much stronger.

I suppose you can't blame Romney for trying. Just don't buy his campaign's spin that his presence in Pennsylvania is a sign of strength.