Opinion: Get Ready for a Third Sino-Japanese War

WSJ contributor Michael Auslin on the stand-off between China and Japan over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Photos: Getty Images

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

... Ch ... was surveillance aircraft and fighter jets were scrambled ... and now in recent days we've learned that the Chinese warship has locked weapons guiding radar ... onto a Japanese ship and helicopter ... are these two countries girding for war ... American Enterprise Institute fellow Michael Ostling joins me now ... Michael was this most recent radar and stay ... focused on the Senkaku while interest or something else going on here ... well Mary when hearing in Washington from source is high and that the Japanese government is that to ... this happened this locking of the radar on the ship and the helicopter now write it the Senkaku has not been present when the waters we could see the islands ... but rather somewhere else in the East China Sea and what they're trying to say ... is that China is is actually expanding the scope of its assertiveness and aggression against Japan ... they're really trying to goad you can into responding or giving up ... and they're not just limiting it to the same happens now is it's unconfirmed ... but the Japanese wanted to make very clear that we understood ... that this wasn't just about the islands it's a much bigger game ... about who's really get to control access in and out of the East China Sea Michael do you have any sense from Tokyo about what measures they would be prepared to take ... to respond to this kind of provocation ... no I think they're still trying to figure it out in fact at the same time that they're talking about the ways of the Chinese are expanding it they also wanted to make clear that ... of the Chinese jets that were reported coming into the Senkaku was airspace where actually fairly far from Japanese jets in a lot of us got very worried I will get ... jet fighters from both countries dogging each other in the sky's ETF an accident really quick ... the Japanese wanted to signal that the Chinese weren't that close even though they are coming closer than they had before ... so I think are still feeling out the role of government as to what would be the most appropriate response and don't forget ... to waiting to see what Washington is going to do when they get a half full back up where they can it be in this on their own until something really bad happened well that is the big question you have a very dovish cabinet coming and ... in the form of John Kerry as secretary of state and potentially chock a goal of the Pentagon ... on the Michael is could this be our Falklands ... given that we are bound by treaty to defend Japan when we go to war war or intervene here to protect the couple of islands in the Pacific ... what's that that's the sixty four thousand dollar question I think a lot of it depends on how hostilities started think you start ... I'll what if the Japanese feel goaded into firing on the Chinese first with the United States support them ... what if it's just an accident and that to start fighting the eye can see this administration ... instead want to talk about a mediating role in in some ways mediation might not be a bad thing on the other hand ... it sends a message to our allies that you can be pushed to the very attitude you might not have ... the backing and support the you think you will from a formal treaty ... Michael domestic politics is also very important here in United States in Japan and in China ... what kind of pressures that is the new prime minister Shinzo on they have ... to respond ... on the half the Chinese public pressure might be feeling of home ... it's a great question from from where the Japanese public stance on this I think that ... on there there's probably any when you see these types of reactions that are happening in Japan there is certainly an initial ... very strong we might call nationalistic outburst ... but then if you would call a cooler heads are more sober heads prevail they look at the situation they realize ... they're up against China ... you know this isn't going up against some other small countries so they have to be very careful ... how even the even of public reaction they want to push this because emotions can go very far ... in China it seems that there really is no problem and in whipping up frenzy and getting that ... the government to ... take it even harder line Japan seems to be the one ... that often steps back and and the United States has to realize ... that when other countries the particular allies are thinking about how they're going to protect their territory ... they have to think about it in terms of China and I don't think we often realize just what that means ... they perceive the size of the perceived the straight ... we think it's all just equal nations negotiating over a table ... at some of the view down in East Asia ... so while all eyes are on the Middle East Syria Iran ... we could be looking in the conflict in the Pacific American Enterprise Institute fellow