OPEC sees non-cartel supply up in mid term, down in long-term

Total non-OPEC oil supply will increase from 56.5 million barrels per day to 60.2 million barrels per day over the period 2014-2020, which is an increase of 3.7 million barrels per day, according to the OPEC forecasts, shown in its OPEC World Oil Outlook.

The Outlook says that non-OPEC supply will reach 61.5 million barrels per day in 2025, but then will decline to 59.7 million barrels per day in 2040.

However, overall non-OPEC crude oil supply is set to decline by 3.1 million barrels per day over the forecast period.

The main long-term increases in non-OPEC crude supply come from Latin America and the Caspian region.

Global liquids supply is projected to increase by 5.2 million barrels per day in the mid-term, rising from the level of 92.4 million barrels per day recorded in 2014 to 97.6 million barrels per day projected for 2020.

In 2040 world liquids supply will rise to 110 million barrels per day, according to OPEC forecasts.

The Outlook says that OPEC crude supply will increase from 30 million barrels per day in 2014 up to 30.7 million barrels per day by 2020. Then, in the 20-year period between 2020 and 2040, OPEC crude is expected to expand by 10 million barrels per day to a level of 40.7 million barrels per day in 2040.

The share of OPEC crude in the total world liquids supply is projected to increase to 37 percent in 2040, compared to current levels of around 33 percent.