Democrats have edge as Harris County shatters midterm...

1of26Harris County residents wait in line at the early voting polling station at the Harris County Public Health building Friday, Nov. 2, 2018, in Houston.
>> PHOTOS: Most unusual polling stations in Houston... Photo: Godofredo A. Vasquez, Houston Chronicle / Staff photographer

2of26PHOTOS: The most unusual polling places in HoustonSome voters may find themselves casting a ballot in their neighbor's garage. This polling location is listed as "Residence Garage" under the Harris County Clerk Voting website.2347 Underwood Street, at Kelving Street, Houston>>>See more for unusual places you might cast your ballot this election...Photo: Google Maps

7of26India House The local nonprofit offers medical clinics, yoga classes and other community-driven initiatives as well as serving as a polling place. 8888 West Bellfort Street, at Westbrae Parkway, Houston Photo: Steve Gonzales, Houston Chronicle

8of26Houston Sports Park The sports and entertainment facility will also serve as a polling place for Houston voters this election. 12211 Kirby Drive, HoustonPhoto: Google Maps

13of26Some Houston voters might be surprised that various hotels are used throughout the city as polling locations.
Sheraton Houston Brookhollow Hotel 3000 North Loop West Freeway, HoustonPhoto: Google Maps

When the polls closed in Harris County Friday, more voters had cast ballots than in any previous midterm election, positioning Harris County to surpass 1 million voters for the first time in a midterm election.

With a few voters still waiting in line to close out early voting, 849,406 residents had turned out, eclipsing even the tea party wave of 2010.

Friday — the 12th and final day of early balloting —saw a record 93,529 ballots cast in Harris County by 7:45 p.m. Voters faced long lines and parking woes, even as many wagered the wait on Tuesday would be worse with hundreds of thousands more voters on Election Day.

More than 4.3 million Texans have voted so far in the state’s 30 largest counties, just shy of the 4.7 million Texans who voted in the entire 2014 election.

Researchers said Democrats maintain a slight edge in Harris County that will likely grow on Election Day. The so-called Blue Wave here may not be enough to propel Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke to victory in the U.S. Senate race against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, but could doom Republicans in local races.

The electorate that has turned out the past two weeks is younger, less Anglo and contains far more new or infrequent voters than normal midterms, factors that largely benefit Democrats.

“Republicans are very good at getting their voters to turn out,” said University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus. “If there are a bunch of voters who don’t typically vote in midterms but are now, it’s probably because they’re Democratic-leaning voters.”

Both major parties have capitalized on enthusiasm among their voters, Rottinghaus said. But Democrats have a higher ceiling, since they traditionally struggle to get their voters to the polls. He said investments local Democrats made years ago to boost turnout among young and non-white voters are paying dividends now.

This is also the final election with straight-ticket voting in Texas, which has usually benefited Republicans. This year it could be their curse, since the fate of local GOP candidates likely lies with ticket-splitters, who have become rarer as partisanship has increased.

Historically, the Election Day vote mirrors the partisan split in early balloting, but some elections have bucked this trend. Energized Democrats rushed to Harris County polls in 2008 to vote early for Barack Obama, but more Republicans turned out on Election Day.

The late GOP surge failed to prevent Obama from winning the county, but it put Republicans within striking distance in down-ballot races. Democrats won 85 percent of judicial contests that year, only the second time in the last five elections in which one party failed to sweep the courthouse races, according to Rice University political scientist Mark Jones.

In the past three general elections, Rottinghaus said a strong Democrat at the top of the ticket has carried Harris County for the party. He said O’Rourke is likely to perform a similar role this year, even if he loses his own race.

“Harris County blooms as a Democratic haven when they’ve got a popular candidate at the ticket,” he said. “You saw that with Obama in ‘08 and ‘12, and (Hillary) Clinton in ‘16. I suspect we’ll see it here in ‘18, too.”

There are some encouraging signs for county Republicans. The most popular early voting locations included the Republican strongholds of Kingwood, Cypress, Champion Forest and Spring Branch.

New voter wild card

Turnout has so defied previous midterms that analysts are handicapping 2018 as if it were a presidential election. They point to a high number of voters —as many as 30 percent — who have no history of midterm participation. Another 11 percent are new voters.

This bloc is a wild card for researchers, since these voters are seldom contacted by pollsters and have paltry voter histories that imply little about which candidates they are likely to support. But broad conclusions can be drawn by their demographics.

Local Democratic consultant Keir Murray said his research on the early vote turnout shows half of this group is under 35 and more than half are women. Voters in these categories are more likely to support Democrats.

“My gut level is that they’re not good for Republicans in the county,” Murray said. “The more of those folks that are in the mix locally and statewide, the worse it is for the GOP.”

The spike in voters under 35, from 13 percent of the electorate in 2014 to 20 percent this year, explains part of this group. Murray estimated that excluding mail ballot voters, who are disproportionately elderly, young voters could form a larger portion of the electorate than those over 65, an outcome previously unheard of in a midterm election.

Chantell Jent, 28, voted for Trump in 2016 but remained undecided on the Senate race as she prepared to cast her ballot at Trini Mendenhall Community Center Friday. She had printed out a Houston Chronicle story, breaking down Cruz and O’Rourke’s positions on various issues, to study at the last minute.

“He's trying to unify, and that's what we need,” Jent said of O’Rourke. “He just really sparked my curiosity.”

Though Jent said she planned to vote mostly for Republicans and disagreed with some of O’Rourke’s stances on gun control and abortion, she remained on the fence.

O’Rourke supporters Robert Lynn, 27, and Matthew Rarey, 28, both voted straight-ticket Democrat and considered health care a top issue. Lynn, as a gay man, said he also cast his ballot with LGBT issues in mind.

“Treating all people like decent people is sort of the party line that I'm treading right now,” Lynn said.

Young Republican voters are enthusiastic as well. At the Juergen's Hall Community Center polling place in Cypress on Friday morning, 23-year-old Kailey Studhalter said she wanted to make sure she cast a ballot for Cruz and other Republicans.

“I was worried Democrats might take control of Texas for the first time in decades,” she said.

Latino surge

Voters with Latino surnames made up a far greater share of the electorate than in previous midterm elections, accounting for 16 percent percent of in-person early vote totals, according to data from the Harris County Clerk’s office. Texas Southern University political science professor Jay Aiyer said the increased turnout could stem from west and southwest parts of Harris County, areas that have seen rapid growth in recent years.

Latinos comprise 43 percent of Harris County residents, more than any any other racial group, but have a poor history of voter turnout. In the past four midterm elections, Latinos made up about 9 percent or less of early in-person voters, with the total spiking to 17 percent in 2016, when Democrats swept Harris County races.

This year, Latinos have increased their turnout 250 percent from four years ago, to around 100,000 votes so far, according to the Harris County clerk. They are motivated by anger over President Donald Trump’s proposals and statements on immigration, Rottinghaus said. They also excited by the record number of Latinos on the ballot, from Lupe Valdez in the governor’s race to local candidates.

“You’ve got pockets of Latino support that haven’t been activated in the past couple of elections who I think will be because of candidates like Sylvia Garcia and Adrian Garcia,” Rottinghaus said. “Having Latino candidates on the ballot is a huge pull.”

High turnout among Latinos, coupled with robust voting among blacks and Asians, could shrink the Anglo portion of the electorate to a lower level than any previous election, Democratic consultant Murray said. He estimated Anglos may only comprise 55 percent of county voters.

Hints of high turnout emerged in early October, when the secretary of state announced that more than 400,000 Texans had registered to vote since the March primaries. Harris County led the way with 55,482 new registrations, bringing the roll to 2.3 million voters.

More than 700 Harris County polling places will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Voters can find their polling location at HarrisVotes.com.