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Monday, June 4, 2018

World Cup 2018 simulations (June 2018)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete World Cup tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.The group results, ordered by average group position:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Uruguay

53,28

24,51

14,59

7,62

Russia

22,05

31,66

27,06

19,23

Egypt

14,81

24,62

29,26

31,31

Saudi Arabia

9,86

19,21

29,09

41,84

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Spain

40,43

30,40

19,30

9,87

Portugal

36,34

30,77

21,66

11,23

Iran

15,52

23,27

31,03

30,18

Morocco

7,71

15,56

28,01

48,72

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

France

42,69

26,73

19,47

11,11

Peru

25,41

27,21

26,16

21,22

Denmark

20,56

26,92

26,55

25,97

Australia

11,34

19,14

27,82

41,70

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Argentina

45,09

27,00

17,45

10,46

Croatia

24,06

28,74

25,94

21,26

Iceland

18,94

24,94

28,03

28,09

Nigeria

11,91

19,32

28,58

40,19

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Brazil

58,81

24,26

11,58

5,35

Switzerland

18,53

30,82

27,61

23,04

Serbia

12,20

23,53

30,18

34,09

Costa Rica

10,46

21,39

30,63

37,52

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Germany

57,37

24,88

12,10

5,65

Mexico

17,56

28,78

29,03

24,63

Sweden

15,48

27,07

30,16

27,29

Korea Republic

9,59

19,27

28,71

42,43

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Belgium

40,24

31,71

18,45

9,60

England

40,30

31,34

18,87

9,49

Panama

10,42

19,89

32,15

37,54

Tunisia

9,04

17,06

30,53

43,37

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Colombia

38,77

27,09

20,25

13,89

Poland

26,39

27,44

24,67

21,50

Senegal

17,46

22,65

27,96

31,93

Japan

17,38

22,82

27,12

32,68

Round of 16

Brazil

E

83,07

Germany

F

82,25

Uruguay

A

77,79

Argentina

D

72,09

Belgium

G

71,95

England

G

71,64

Spain

B

70,83

France

C

69,42

Portugal

B

67,11

Colombia

H

65,86

Poland

H

53,83

Russia

A

53,71

Croatia

D

52,80

Peru

C

52,62

Switzerland

E

49,35

Denmark

C

47,48

Mexico

F

46,34

Iceland

D

43,88

Sweden

F

42,55

Japan

H

40,20

Senegal

H

40,11

Egypt

A

39,43

Iran

B

38,79

Serbia

E

35,73

Costa Rica

E

31,85

Nigeria

D

31,23

Australia

C

30,48

Panama

G

30,31

Saudi Arabia

A

29,07

Korea Republic

F

28,86

Tunisia

G

26,10

Morocco

B

23,27

Quarter finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the round of 16)

Brazil

E

58,90

[70,90]

Germany

F

57,43

[69,82]

Spain

B

57,37

[81,00]

Portugal

B

54,20

[80,76]

France

C

46,31

[66,71]

Argentina

D

46,06

[63,89]

England

G

45,12

[62,98]

Belgium

G

44,40

[61,71]

Colombia

H

38,97

[59,17]

Peru

C

27,26

[51,81]

Iran

B

27,12

[69,91]

Poland

H

25,32

[47,04]

Croatia

D

22,95

[43,47]

Denmark

C

22,03

[46,40]

Switzerland

E

20,72

[41,99]

Uruguay

A

19,21

[24,69]

Mexico

F

18,96

[40,91]

Iceland

D

16,77

[38,22]

Senegal

H

15,78

[39,34]

Japan

H

15,69

[39,03]

Russia

A

15,40

[28,67]

Sweden

F

15,38

[36,15]

Morocco

B

13,15

[56,51]

Serbia

E

11,35

[31,77]

Australia

C

10,05

[32,97]

Costa Rica

E

9,22

[28,95]

Nigeria

D

8,57

[27,44]

Egypt

A

8,42

[21,35]

Panama

G

8,14

[26,86]

Korea Republic

F

8,04

[27,86]

Tunisia

G

6,58

[25,21]

Saudi Arabia

A

5,13

[17,65]

Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

Brazil

E

46,17

[78,39]

Germany

F

44,72

[77,87]

Spain

B

33,59

[58,55]

Portugal

B

29,93

[55,22]

France

C

28,97

[62,56]

Argentina

D

27,74

[60,23]

England

G

17,75

[39,34]

Belgium

G

17,20

[38,74]

Colombia

H

15,81

[40,57]

Peru

C

14,58

[53,48]

Croatia

D

11,33

[49,37]

Denmark

C

10,77

[48,89]

Switzerland

E

10,45

[50,43]

Mexico

F

10,10

[53,27]

Iran

B

9,74

[35,91]

Iceland

D

8,18

[48,78]

Poland

H

8,06

[31,83]

Sweden

F

7,11

[46,23]

Uruguay

A

5,55

[28,89]

Russia

A

4,61

[29,94]

Serbia

E

4,47

[39,38]

Senegal

H

4,33

[27,44]

Japan

H

4,19

[26,70]

Australia

C

4,06

[40,40]

Morocco

B

3,83

[29,13]

Costa Rica

E

3,62

[39,26]

Nigeria

D

3,48

[40,61]

Korea Republic

F

3,03

[37,69]

Egypt

A

2,42

[28,74]

Panama

G

1,64

[20,15]

Tunisia

G

1,35

[20,52]

Saudi Arabia

A

1,22

[23,78]

Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Brazil

E

33,03

[71,54]

Germany

F

30,97

[69,25]

Spain

B

17,85

[53,14]

Portugal

B

15,06

[50,32]

France

C

14,68

[50,67]

Argentina

D

14,45

[52,09]

England

G

8,32

[46,87]

Belgium

G

8,24

[47,91]

Colombia

H

7,57

[47,88]

Peru

C

5,96

[40,88]

Mexico

F

4,58

[45,35]

Croatia

D

4,49

[39,63]

Switzerland

E

4,45

[42,58]

Denmark

C

3,81

[35,38]

Iran

B

3,35

[34,39]

Poland

H

3,05

[37,84]

Sweden

F

2,80

[39,38]

Iceland

D

2,75

[33,62]

Serbia

E

1,67

[37,36]

Senegal

H

1,60

[36,95]

Uruguay

A

1,52

[27,39]

Japan

H

1,29

[30,79]

Costa Rica

E

1,23

[33,98]

Russia

A

1,23

[26,68]

Australia

C

1,23

[30,30]

Korea Republic

F

1,02

[33,66]

Morocco

B

0,98

[25,59]

Nigeria

D

0,98

[28,16]

Egypt

A

0,73

[30,17]

Panama

G

0,46

[28,05]

Tunisia

G

0,40

[29,63]

Saudi Arabia

A

0,25

[20,49]

World Champion (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Brazil

E

22,18

[67,15]

Germany

F

20,09

[64,87]

Spain

B

9,70

[54,34]

France

C

7,32

[49,86]

Portugal

B

7,31

[48,54]

Argentina

D

6,94

[48,03]

England

G

3,58

[43,03]

Belgium

G

3,40

[41,26]

Colombia

H

3,12

[41,22]

Peru

C

2,30

[38,59]

Croatia

D

1,56

[34,74]

Switzerland

E

1,54

[34,61]

Mexico

F

1,53

[33,41]

Denmark

C

1,42

[37,27]

Iran

B

1,13

[33,73]

Poland

H

1,04

[34,10]

Sweden

F

0,82

[29,29]

Iceland

D

0,78

[28,36]

Japan

H

0,51

[39,53]

Serbia

E

0,50

[29,94]

Senegal

H

0,45

[28,13]

Costa Rica

E

0,42

[34,15]

Uruguay

A

0,41

[26,97]

Russia

A

0,38

[30,89]

Morocco

B

0,34

[34,69]

Australia

C

0,33

[26,83]

Korea Republic

F

0,28

[27,45]

Nigeria

D

0,22

[22,45]

Egypt

A

0,13

[17,81]

Panama

G

0,12

[26,09]

Tunisia

G

0,09

[22,50]

Saudi Arabia

A

0,06

[24,00]

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.