Summer 2017 Missing In Action So Far

Summer 2017 Missing In Action So Far

If your definition of summer is endless days of 90 plus temperatures and obnoxious humidity then so far this summer you have been quite disappointed. Other than the two mini heatwaves we saw (Mid May, Mid June) the vast majority of days have actually been quite reasonable from the standpoint of temperature and humidity. What is going on during summer 2017? Well summer 2017 isn’t missing in action so much. It just decided to park itself in a different location.

The upper air jet stream forecast illustrates the pattern we have been in since late May. Summer 2017 has parked itself in the Western US where a strong ridge has settled there and shows little signs of moving. Occasionally it noses eastward and then goes right back to the west. This is because we continue to see the jet stream trough in the east. This brings the flow out of Canada. Every time the trough lifts out, another one follows. The result is cold fronts coming through every 3 or 4 day. It gets very warm to hot for a day or so and then the dry cooler air from the north takes over. This has been the signature of the weather pattern in the East for the last 6 or 7 weeks and it shows no signs of changing anytime in the short range.

Even when the weekend trough lifts out another one replaces it for the middle of next week. The ridge in the west flattens a little but it still remains essentially in the west. For it to get hot here for a long period of time, that ridge needs to develop in the east with a trough in the west. For now that pattern remains elusive. How does this measure up in terms of temperatures?

You can see the consequences of this pattern with the map above showing temperature departures from average. This map is for next Sunday evening. Notice that temperatures throughout the Eastern half of the US are below average while the western part of North America shows temperatures well above average. Up until now the ridge in the east seems to appear for a few days every 4 weeks or so. Each time that ridge shows up it hangs for shorter and shorter time frames. I suspect we may say another ridge pop up in the east at some point this month though the signs now are few and far between.

One of the other things to consider is if the trough in the East continues to be persistent, that could become important as we get deeper into Hurricane Season. The trough in the East could open the door for something to come up the east coast but if the trough is too far east, it can also act as the broom to sweep storms out to sea. I’ve always thought it best to deal with patterns in terms of the trend being your friend until the trend changes. So until we see the ridge in the Western US break down, heatwaves and days of intolerable humidity won’t last very long.

This video explains the short and long range further along with the latest on the Tropics.

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