My blog provides alternative view on Kashmir dispute and politics of South Asia, especially India Pakistan relations. It aims to educate people that they can make informed judgements.

Wednesday, 4 July 2018

Grey list and Pakistani economy, Dr Shabir Choudhry,

Grey
list and Pakistani economy

Dr
Shabir Choudhry, London, 04 July 2018

Some Pakistanis are happy
that Pakistan is not in the Black list; others are surprised why Pakistan is in
the ‘Grey list’.

As a country, Pakistan is
not new to the grey list because Pakistan was on the grey list from2012 to 2015.
After Pakistan took some measures in the right direction; and after some firm
assurances that Pakistan will adhere to all the conditions, Pakistan’s name was
removed from the grey list in 2015.

Pakistani policy makers wrongly
thought they have weathered the storm, and they reverted back to old policies. Financial
Action Task Force (FATF), is an international body with 37 members that
combats terrorist financing and money laundering; and helps the concerned
countries to formulate appropriate strategies.

In its plenary meeting held in Paris
in February 2018, the FATF recognised the following areas of
concern with regard to Pakistan:

1.Deficiencies in the supervision of Anti-Money Laundering and;

2.Counter-Terrorism Financing (CTF) regimes;

3.Cross-border illicit movement of currency by terrorist
groups;

4.Progress on terrorism financing investigation and
prosecution;

5.Insufficient
progress in implementation of the UN Security Council Resolutions 1267 and 1373.
These resolutions deal with effectively controlling and limiting terror
financing.

Pakistani
response – was it satisfactory

FATF urged Pakistan government to deal with the above
concerns. It was quite clear that failure to take appropriate steps will result
in placing Pakistan back on the grey list.
However, this could have been avoided if three member countries had voted
against the move. Pakistan’s ‘best friends’ like China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey
were also present in the meeting. Despite lofty claim to have friendship deeper
than sea, higher than the Himalayas and sweeter than honey, they did not vote
in support of Pakistan.

No respectable country with future
international ambitions wants to risk its reputation and dignity, and support a
country that has a track record of not fulfilling its international pledges. As
a result, Pakistan felt totally alienated and humiliated.

Arif Nizami, a very respectable
Pakistani journalist and political analyst said:

Now China has openly
asserted that Beijing doesn’t want to be part of any initiative that can result
in failure.1

Arif Nizami further says if Pakistan
continue to behave like irresponsible child, then Pakistan’s friends will not
endanger their international interests because of Pakistan.He thinks,
all this is happening because the Pakistani establishment is refusing to read
writing on the wall. It was because of these policies there have been conflicts
between the civilian governments and the military establishment. If still
somewhere this thinking exists that these groups (militant) are strategic
assets, then it must be abandoned. 2

Now that Pakistan is back on the
grey list; it does not enhance Pakistan’s international standing. Rather it is
shame, and proves that Pakistan is still perceived as a country that is
involved in money laundering and terrorism related activities.

The rulers of
Pakistan, especially those in uniform need to understand that in order to
remove Pakistan’s name from the grey list, Pakistan has to fulfil all
the obligations and assure that they will behave like a responsible country in
future. However, if
they contravene the agreement reached with FATF, this can lead to placing
Pakistan’s name in the Black list.

Apart from Pakistan, the following
countries are also on the FATF grey list. People of Pakistan and their
supporters can see where Pakistan stands:

1.Syria

2.Iraq

3.Sri Lanka

4.Iran and

5.Yemen

Is
there a Conspiracy against Pakistan?

Is
Pakistan innocent and FATF, under pressure of America and some others, is
involved in some kind of conspiracy against Pakistan. Whenever Pakistan is at
the wrong end of stick in international relations, or even mess up situation in
Pakistan due to wrong policies, they resort to tried and tested strategy of ‘conspiracy
against Pakistan’. As usual, and as expected, Pakistanis are calling it a
conspiracy. While discussing the decision of FATF, Dr Murtaza Mughal, President
Pakistan Economy Watch said:

‘The
decision by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to put Pakistan on the grey
list is a move taken on the behest of US aimed at pressurizing Pakistan and to
force Pakistan into submission’.

He further
said, ‘The FATF is a tool
to hit Pakistan’s economy, CPEC, banking sector, exports and investors’ confidence
as it will increase the cost of doing business, he observed’. 3

After being back on the grey list officially, the
government of Pakistan has pledged to"address its strategic counter-terrorist
financing-related deficiencies".

Fundamental
question is why you didn’t do it before? Time and again, the International
Community urged Pakistan to change their old habit of playing double, and
helping and supporting terrorist activities. Since February 2018, Pakistan had
plenty of time to put its house in order, and satisfy the FATF. What Pakistan
did since February 2018 to 25 June 2018 was clearly insufficient, mainly
because the Pakistani establishment was busy sorting out politics of Pakistan
to advance their agenda.

During
this crucial period, the establishment was still busy pulling strings in
Kashmir and Afghanistan to ensure that instability and violence continues in
these regions. Also with help of judiciary, they wanted to ensure that power
and influence of the ruling party Muslim League N is crushed; and no political party
gets majority to form a government in General elections to be held on 25 July
2018.

It
was crystal clear in February 2018, that if appropriate steps were not taken,
Pakistan will be officially placed on the grey list. Despite this bitter fact,
no urgency was visible; and Security and Exchange Commission of Pakistan
promulgated new regulations on money laundering and terror financing on 20
June, only 5 days before the proposed FATF meeting in Paris.

The way Pakistani establishment is interfering in the
election process was making headlines in the international media. Many analysts
believed that the establishment and judiciary wanted to bulldoze everything to
ensure that outcome of the elections is a ‘hung parliament’, which could be
controlled. For this purpose, they even inducted extremists and hate preachers
in the mainstream politics.

Daily Times of Pakistan in its editorial wrote that the
previous government of PMLN government, despite pressure of the establishment, ‘had
strived towards by effectively outlawing particular militant groups as well as
seizing their assets’. However, the new caretaker government,
may be under pressure of establishment and religious parties, ‘has recently
been a flurry of activity around certain proscribed outfits; resulting in them
being all set to contest the elections. And while the Election Commission of
Pakistan (ECP) has done the needful on the non-registration front — it is no
match for those who wish to see such groups mainstreamed at any cost’.4,

The editorial further says: ‘the current power battle
is being waged on a single agenda: devastating the PMLN of any electoral hopes.
And once this is achieved, with the crowning of a new blue-eyed boy’. 5

How imprudent, that while critical
decisions were being discussed about future of Pakistan, the caretaker
government, may be under the pressure of the establishment, unfroze accounts of
Head of Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat, Ahmed Ludhianvi, who is also
Joint Secretary of Defence of Pakistan Council. Restrictions on his movements
were also lifted. He was given back his National Identity Card, and allowed to
travel abroad as well.

How interesting that Hafiz Saeed is a wanted man; and yet
his infrastructure operates in Pakistan, and in Azad Kashmir and Gilgit
Baltistan without any problems. One may ask, is he bigger than the state and
state institutions; or is he extension of them? The UN and America regard
Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation, as ‘terror groups’; and both of
these are believed to be still linked to Hafiz Saeed.

Despite the above hard realities, the Milli Muslim
League, political branch of the banned Jamaat ud Dawa will contest the general
elections under the umbrella of Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek; and will launch 260
candidates for the July 2018 elections. Interestingly they also have ten women
candidates. The final list confirms 79 candidates for the National Assembly and
181 for the four Provincial Assemblies.

Even
though it is their first participation in the national elections, but they have
demonstrated a national support and character of the party by fielding 36
candidates for the National Assembly from Punjab, 29 from Sindh, 28 from the
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 14 from Balochistan and eight from FATA. It has put up five
candidates in Karachi and four in Lahore.6

Among the
candidates include names of Hafiz Talha Saeed, son of Hafiz Saeed, who is
contesting for National Assembly seat, NA 91; and his son in law, Khalid Waleed
who is contesting PP -167. It looked some of the institutions were working
hard, not to satisfy conditions of the FATF, but to ensure that there was a
‘hung Parliament’ in which their man becomes the Prime Minister; and Nawaz
Sharif is ousted for ever. 7

Grey list and Pakistani economy

Even before Pakistan was placed on the black list; the
Pakistani economy was struggling. Political instability was also increasing to
the detriment of the economy and confidence of potential investors. Moody
downgraded Pakistan’s credit rating from stable to negative, and affirmed it at
‘B3’.

In view of some experts B3 rating still ‘reflects Pakistan’s robust growth potential,
supported by ongoing improvements in energy supply and physical infrastructure’, mainly because of the projects related to China
Pakistan Economic Corridor. Moody also pointed out about problems of external
payments and government’s inability to generate more revenue.

In my opinion, we should look at
overall political and economic picture; and country’s will to overcome the
challenges, and not only look at ‘potential growth’. We must look at the ground
realities and what is actually happening in the country. In my considered
opinion, all the above will surely have negative
impact on the Pakistani economy; and country’s ability to persuade potential
investors to come to Pakistan with money bags.

Furthermore, it will affect Pakistan’s ability to reach
out to global lending institutions; and obtain more funds. In view of a
Pakistani commentator, Pakistan’s democratic and economic health has ‘forcefully
been put on life support’. Many economists are apprehensive of the fact that if
they tell facts about political and economic health of Pakistan, and what may
happen, they will be castigated as ‘anti-Pakistan’ and ‘traitors’.

With these tags, it is not possible to live with respect,
or even survive in Islamic Republic of Pakistan. In view of this, many choose
to go with the tide; and refrain to tell what the rulers don’t want to hear.

The devaluation of Rupee has only made the bad situation
worse, and added the credit burden. The growth is more than likely to decline.
Exports will also continue to decline, and imports will continue to rise; and
that will create more problems for balance of payments. It will also result in
steep rise in inflation, which will surely result in more social, economic and
political problems.

Some Pakistanis take
inclusion of Pakistan in this grey list very lightly, and shrug off their
shoulders by saying, we were in the grey list before, and we got out of it. We
can do it again. They don’t understand we are living in 2018 now, with
different political and economic climate.

The FATF is not an American
organisation. It is an inter-governmental institute founded in 1989,
specifically for the purpose ‘to combat money laundering, terrorist
financing and other related threats to the integrity of the international
financial system’.This body must be satisfied that Pakistan has
changed its policy, and is no longer protecting terrorists; or exporting
terrorism and is involved in money laundering.

With your hand on your heart, can you sincerely say that
Pakistan has changed its policy; and has become a ‘good boy’ now.

Apart from that, between 2012 and 2015, the Pakistani
banks like Habib Bank and National Bank were operating as ‘correspondent
banking channels’, which helped trade and banking to run satisfactorily. Now
under the new laws and new operating systems, the Pakistani banks will find it
increasingly difficult to operate in some countries like America. It must be
pointed out that Habib Bank had to pay a
penalty of USD 225 million last year to the Department of Financial Services of
New York State for violating multiple state regulations. As a result of this,
Habib Bank was forced to close its operations there.

When a country is on the
grey list or economically vulnerable, big banks are reluctant to issue Letter
of Credit, which makes it very difficult to trade. With Pakistan’s current
fragile political and economic situation; and government’s lack of will to
control and eradicate jihadi infrastructure known as terrorist infrastructure,
there are more chances of Pakistan not fulfilling the conditions of the FATF.
This can result in either placing Pakistan on the Black list; or at best giving
Pakistan more time to put its house in order.

America and some other countries
believe that Pakistan, or some of its institutions were still behind many wrong
doings, and support terrorists. Call it international community, or some
powerful countries have consistently complained that Pakistan was not doing
sufficient to control terrorism and other wrong doings. One reports notes:

‘Terror financing still remains a
challenge in Pakistan, where militant and extremist groups have openly
generated large sums of money under the guise of religion and welfare for the
poor. The funds are allegedly being used for terror activities within and
outside the country’. 8

The report further says that:

‘Militant groups collect money using
different methods and sources in the country, largely relying on foreign
funding, drug trafficking, extortion from businesses and kidnapping for
ransoms. The Hawala system, a parallel banking system, is another convenient
method militants use to launder their money’. 9

The FATF has set ten-point agenda for
Pakistan to implement. They have to implement or achieve targets of nine goals to
the satisfaction of the FATF before May 2019. The tenth target is to be
achieved before September 2019. The list of agenda is produced below. With the
prevailing situation in Pakistan, as explained the above, can Pakistan satisfy
the FATF.

This is the action plan or homework for
Pakistan:

1) Demonstrating that
terrorist financing risks are properly identified, assessed, and that
supervision is applied on a risk-sensitive basis

2) Demonstrating that
remedial actions and sanctions are applied in cases of AML/CFT violations, and
that these actions have an effect on AML/CFT compliance by financial
institutions

3) Demonstrating that
competent authorities are cooperating and taking action to identify and take
enforcement action against illegal money or value transfer services (MVTS)

4) Demonstrating that
authorities are identifying cash couriers and enforcing controls on illicit
movement of currency and understanding the risk of cash couriers being used for
terrorist financing

6) Demonstrating that
law enforcement agencies (LEAs) are identifying and investigating the widest
range of terrorist financing activity and that terrorist financing
investigations and prosecutions target designated persons and entities, and
persons and entities acting on behalf or at the direction of the designated
persons or entities

7) Demonstrating that
terrorist financing prosecutions result in effective, proportionate and
dissuasive sanctions and enhancing the capacity and support for prosecutors and
the judiciary

8) Demonstrating
effective implementation of targeted financial sanctions against all 1267 and
1373 designated terrorists and those acting for or on their behalf, including
preventing the raising and moving of funds, identifying and freezing assets
(movable and immovable), and prohibiting access to funds and financial services

10) Demonstrating that
facilities and services owned or controlled by designated persons are deprived of
their resources and the usage of the resources.10

Dr Mohammad Faisal, Foreign Office spokesman said:

“We will have to
ensure the implementation of the action plan shared with FATF while we are on
the grey list, if adequate measures are taken, we can be removed from the
grey-list”.

Failure to meet
the above targets will mean more problems for Pakistan. It is sad to conclude
with a depressing note – Pakistan will sleep walk in to a quagmire. With
Pakistan getting deeper and deeper in to problems, not only people of Pakistan
will suffer, we people of Azad Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan and people of the
region will suffer too.

Writer is a renowned writer and author of many books. He is also a
senior leader of UKPNP and Chairman South Asia Watch, London.

About Me

Dr Shabir Choudhry has done extensive research on the issue of Kashmir and Indo Pakistan relations. He passed BA Honours in Politics and History, and Mphil in International Relations (title of the thesis, ‘Kashmir and Partition of India’); and title of his PhD thesis is ‘Kashmir- An issue of a nation not a dispute of a land’.

Apart from this Dr Shabir Choudhry passed Post Graduates Certificates in Education, and NVQ Assessor’s qualifications; and taught English in London.

Political Achievements

Founder member of JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front established in 1977) and got elected as a Press Secretary in 1984.

Became its Secretary General in 1985, and resigned from this post in 1996.

Got elected President of JKLF and Europe in May 1999, and decided not to contest in elections of July 2001.

Said good - bye to the JKLF as it is in many groups and is largely seen as advancing a Pakistani agenda on Kashmir dispute, and set up a new party Kashmir National Party in May 2008.

.

At present, he is:

·Spokesman Kashmir National Party and Director Diplomatic Committee;

·Spokesman for International KashmirAlliance;

·Founder member and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs;

Previously

·A founder Member and Trustee/ Director of London based registered charity, Kashmir Foundation International and resigned from this position in August 2001.

·Regularly take part in the Sessions of the UN Human Rights (Commission) now Council in Geneva; and address various conferences and seminars to oppose violence and highlight the Kashmir cause.

·Participated in a Round Table Conference on Kashmir, organised by Socialist Group of European Parliament in Brussels in 1993.

·Addressed as a Chief Guest in a seminar on issue of Mangla Dam during the UN Sub Commission’s proceedings in August 2003.

·Addressed as a key - note speaker in a seminar on the issue of Gilgit and Baltistan, organised by Association of British Kashmiris.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker on human rights conference in Paris in 1991.

·Addressed at CambridgeUniversity as a Chief Guest in a conference on Kashmir in 1990.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker at New Delhi conference on Kashmir, which was part of Track Two diplomacy in November 2000.

·In September 2008, addressed a Conference arranged by Interfaith International in Geneva, topic of which was:“Kashmir Issue, Terrorism and Human Rights”.

·Addressed as a speaker in a NGO Conference on Self - Determination in Geneva in August 2000.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker in a fringe meeting of Liberal Democrats at their Annual Conference in Brighton in 1995.

·Participated in World Human Rights Conference in Vienna in 1993.

·Before President Clinton's visit to India and Pakistan in 2000, lead a JKLF delegation to the State Department to discuss Kashmir dispute and situation in South Asia.

·Also had two rounds of meetings with senior State Department officials before President Musharraf’s meeting to Washington in June 2003.

·Apart from that had meetings with senior officials including Ministers of different countries, and also held many meetings with the State Department and Foreign and Commonwealth Office officials on number of occasions.

·Played important role in advancing a Kashmiri perspective on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir; and also helped Baroness Emma Nicholson with her report ‘Kashmir: present situation and future prospects’, which was adopted by the European Parliament in May 2007.

·Won first prize in an essay competition in Urdu in 1976. It was organised by High Commission of Pakistan in London, and title of the essay was 'Qaaid-e- Azam's role in Islamic History'.

·Apart from that have addressed conferences in Brussels, Geneva, Toronto, Islamabad, Delhi, and

Publications

·Got first Urdu novel ‘Fareena’ published at the age of eighteen.

·Second Urdu novel ‘Bay-Khataa’ which was about the problems of Asian youths living in UK published in 1983.

·Third Urdu book ‘Pakistan and Kashmiri struggle for independence’ published in 1990.

·Fourth Urdu book is also on Kashmiri struggle, 'Is an independent Kashmir a conspiracy?'

·Apart from that has twenty books and booklets published in English on various aspects of the Kashmiri struggle.

·Recent publications are: Kashmir dispute as I see it

·Different perspective on Kashmir

·JKLF visit to Pakistan Administered Kashmir

·Kashmir Needs Change of Heart

·If not self - determination then what?

·Emma Nicholson report- who has won?

·Struggle for independence, Jihad or proxy war (Introduction by Baroness Emma Nicholson)

·

Future publications

Following books were completed some time ago and shall be published in near future:

In Search of Freedom - My visit to Srinagar and Islamabad

Kashmir and Partition of India

A brief background

Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in a small village called Nakker Shimali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and like other people from the region, holds a dual nationality. He left secondary school in 1970 with no qualifications and began his life as a textile worker.

In 1975 he started part time studies and passed Matriculation from Government High School Panjeri, passed ‘O’ and ‘A’ levels from UK, and resumed full time degree course in 1981, and passed BA (Hons) in Politics and History in 1984.

He continued full time and part time jobs until he got his Mphil. He passed his PGCE (Post Graduates Certificate in Education) in 1990, and then started full time job as a Lecturer. Due to health problems he resigned from teaching in 1999. At present he is self - employed, provides private tuition, translation and interpretation and consultancy.

Through out his adult life he has actively worked for the cause of Kashmir, and even during long illness he effectively carried out his responsibilities as a leader of the JKLF, a ‘prolific writer’ and consistent campaigner of Rights Movement and peace in Jammu and Kashmir and South Asia.