Positives

The Reds had a couple excellent defensive plays. Ryan Ludwick’s leaping catch of Freddie Freeman’s fly ball prevented Mike Leake from suffering the indignity of back-to-back-to-back home runs. And Joey Votto ranged deep into the 1B/2B hole to rob BJ Upton of a hit in the fifth inning. That particular play looked like one where an aggressive defensive shift paid off.

Jay Bruce (.235/.364/.420) had two walks.

Negatives

The Reds had scratched their way to a .500 record when they arrived in Atlanta. They are now 2 games below even, needing a win tomorrow against Braves ace Julio Teheran, to avoid a sweep. On the bright side, they aren’t far behind St. Louis and are ahead of Pittsburgh.

Mike Leake pitched well enough to win a lot of games. Add a shutout inning from Manny Parra and Nick Christiani, and the Reds pitchers held Atlanta to four runs total. Prior to tonight’s game, the Reds offense had been averaging 4.1 runs/game (and 4.3 r/g in 2013).

David Hale and Craig Kimbrel shut the Reds down over the final eight innings. In fact, the Reds didn’t have a hit after Ryan Ludwick’s oh-so-close double in the first innings. You have to wonder how the game would have turned out if Ludwick’s ball would have been two feet higher and out of the park.

The return of Cold Stove, the ennui puppy.

Stat of the night

This isn’t a new fangled stat. It’s the ratio of two extremely old stats: walks and strikeouts. Bases on balls are a good thing for a hitter, strikeouts are a bad thing. So it’s better to have a higher BB/K than a low one. 194 hitters in major league baseball have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.

Going into tonight’s game, of those 194 hitters, the Cincinnati Reds have three players in the bottom 20 in BB/K: Billy Hamilton #179, Zack Cozart #180 and Brandon Phillips #184. Two of those players bat in the top three of the Reds line-up every single night. Not sure what you’d call that sandwich with Joey Votto in the middle. If you come up with something clever, I guess we could put it on a t-shirt that would remind us how dysfunctional this lineup is.

Add in Neftali Soto, who has 1 hit and 0 walks (of course) in 24 Major League at bats (yay organizational depth!), and Brayan Peña, who has a career wRC+ of 74 (average is 100) and you have the recipe for pretty much what happened tonight.

Top game thread comments

doublenohitter:Difference between the 2 teams. When the Reds hang a pitch, the Braves hit it out. When the Braves hang a pitch, the Reds foul it off or take it. [Or swing through it. – SPM]

ToddAlmighty: I like this new more patient Bruce. Even though his bat is not hot right now, he still has 17 walks on the season (only two behind Votto), so he’s still providing some value in his slump with a high OBP.

And winning a lot on the road. They are not historically an outstanding road team and are historically strong at home. Even if the fall off to a typical road win rate for the rest of the season, they’ve built quite a cushion other teams will have to take back. Meanwhile they are skating at home; and, if they start rolling there…….

Well I said last night that with Mesoraco shelved we should get used to seeing the 0-2 run games we saw in the beginning of the season. So far so good. In the first inning alone there was a spot where Mes probably could have driven in another but Pena was already deep into his corrective period where I expect him to bat sub .200. This team is just snakebit this season. Someone better step up.

On the upside, Ludwick is earning his money on both sides of the ball so far. People have griped about some short flares into shallow left that they thought he should have gotten to, but that play he made to rob a HR tonight was some professional baseball. I’ve always thought he’s gotten a bum rap for his defense. He’s not Mike Trout or Andrew McCutchen but he can still play some ball in LF.

Soto is still basically a prospect so the book isn’t written on him. Pena, on the other hand, has a career OPS+ of 77 and came into today with a season OPS+ of 120. He is absolutely going to regress BADLY and we’re already seeing it. Losing Mes for any significant amount of time could be very very bad for this offense. Frazier could easily be back tomorrow, on the other hand, so I’m not worried about Soto.

Seriously? Hanigan has a career OPS+ of 91. He is far and away a better defensive catcher than Pena and is currently having the best start to a season of his professional career. I’m not saying we should have kept Hanigan around at the expense of Mesoraco’s starts, but Pena isn’t even CLOSE to replacing Hanigan in a starting capacity.

Just in time for a huge series against the Brew Crew next week-end. Currently sitting 7 games out, the Reds next 7-8 days will significantly determine whether the Reds contend this year. Initially had the end of April as a low or high water mark – let’s simply adjust that date by 4 days. Hate to say it but if the Reds front office doesn’t tweak this team a little, its quite possible that the Brew Crew will be leaving town next Sunday with as big as a 10 game lead over the Reds or as little as 4 games. And Charlotte, since the season may already be hanging in the balance, can’t wait to see what type of GM the Reds actually have.

Even here in Denver the Rockies watch as Todd Helton retires last year only to go out and pick up Justin Morneau.

Time for the Red’s GM to earn his keep. Even the Braves announcers noticed the gaping deficiency. The burning question is, will Walt?

Pete, I hear you but again, please let us consider:
1 – Reds lose their #2 starting pitcher
2 – Reds lose their closer
3 – Reds lose their starting 3rd baseman
4 – Reds lose their starting catcher
5 – Reds go the 1st two weeks of the season without their RH & LH set-up men in the bullpen. Are this guys capable of pitching full-time?

Someone offered that Mes is now looking like a very important part of the winning equation of the team. Probably more than anyone of us would have dreamed.

Just trying trying to add some context to the situation. Who are the Cards back-up catcher & 3rd baseman and how good would their pen be without 3 of their top 4 relievers? I don’t know the answers. Until TF returns we are going to have a rough go of it. No doubt, the pitching will have to tow the load.

I think we can all agree with one move: the 3rd base coach needs to be removed from his current responsibilities.

If JC can work his magic today, we have a 3-game series against the fighting Cubbies. Hopefully TF is back by next weekend for the Brew Crew. If someone is not a diehard Red fan, this week might an opportunity to do something else with their time. Even if it’s a successful week, it probably isn’t going to be pretty.

What Walt can do right now, I don’t know. Maybe he can pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Charlotte – totally agree – with time this team could round into some kind of formidable form. Will it happen? That’s why they play each and every season – because of the excitement around the uncertainty of the situation. Being healthy definitely plays into the equation. What did the Wide World of Sports used to say (circa 1978)?

Scanning the globe (ok for the time being the NL) to bring you the constant variety of sport!
The thrill of victory, and the agony of defeat!
The human drama of athletic competition.

And front and center ladies and gentlemen I bring you The Cincinnati Reds

Charlotte, I will give you that our #2 is shut down – and dearly want him back, soon. But if Johnny’s our #1, Mat our #2, Cingrani #3, Leake a very solid #4 and Simon a rock solid #5 – where’s that leave Homer – on the outside looking in?

If the Reds end April with a .500 record then I will give our new manager, Brian Price, a very solid B for the stellar work he’s done thus far – while hoping that the Red’s best is yet to come (as it very well could be).

And definitely agree – if fans are looking for pretty they should look elsewhere. Baseball is a dirty sport – in more ways than one, Just look at the player’s uniforms during the course of games.

As far as Walt, I want him to do SOMETHING. Pulling a rabbit out of a hat would be a start – and while he’s at it find a SS that isn’t an embarrassment at the plate. And get rid of the 3B coach – the players are already starting to second guess him. That would send a message – that if you consistently fail at your job you are going to be replaced. The status quo is now gone (DB) – its time to pull your big boy pant up and get after it.

The Reds need to plow through the Cubs this week and then take at least 3 of 4 from the high flying and surging Milwaukee Brewers. Can the Reds do it? Absolutely, as the season we are all hoping for the Reds depends on it. Lets start it by riding our horse and taking todays’ game from the Braves.

Lots of people are afraid this will be the reincarnation of 2011
Talent on the roster but not enough talent to hang with the big dogs
I’m an optimist so until September comes if the Reds are in striking distance I will hope they find what they need to start beating the continding teams

The Reds could definitely be a force this season – if they hold serve during these difficult and very trying (injuries) times. And it doesn’t just hinge on Mez, it also greatly depends on the production from the SS position, the rebounding of Homer Bailey and how Mat pitches when he gets back. The Reds look formidable on paper when healthy – just need certain Reds players to start showing up.

I think we will find out what Pena can hit because he will be in the lineup more consistently. Ludwick had been saying he needed to be in the lineup consistently to get his hitting going. Let us hope that there is the same effect for Pena.
It is about to be May and Bruce rakes in May, historically. I hope history will repeat itself again.

If the Brewers play just .500 the rest of the way, they would end up with 87 wins. They’ve already put together the type of run which typically wins a division unless they have a spell where the wheels fall clear off or somebody else in their division goes on a run comparable to what they are on.

Comment was made somewhere in this thread that the Brewers haven’t played much versus .500+ teams yet. The other side of the coin is can they match what the Reds have done versus .500+ teams and can the Reds match what the Brewers have done versus lesser teams???? I like their chances of doing as well or better than the Reds have versus the competition the Reds have faced to date which would mean the Reds would have to do better than the Brewers versus the competition the Brewers have faced to date if the Reds are to catch them.

I don’t mean to say the season is over; but in a league where when all is said and done for the season only one or two teams typically play under .400 and probably one at most plays as well as .600, a .750 record (what the Brewers have) over what amounts to 15% of the season is a significant accomplishment.

One way to restate what you said Jim is that 92 wins might very well win this Division. After the Brewer’s start, they will only have to play a little above .500 to get there as they are now 12 games over .500. So unless the wheels come off, they will be there at the end. This team has shown absolutely no ability to string wins together – the recent 8-3 run was against 2 teams that are struggling, the horrible Cubs and the sinking Pirates.

Have a suggestion but it may not go over well. Any chance the Reds approach Arizona to see what the Diamondbacks want for Didi Gregarious? Liked the kid a lot coming up with the Reds then he got lost in the shuffle when the Reds ‘went all in’ last year and acquired Choo. He could generate some sorely missed offense from the SS position. Love Cozart’s glove – but to answer the Braves announcers question of how long the Reds can keep Cozart who is hitting .140 in the line-up? Not much longer, that’s for sure.

What could we possibly have to offer? Fact of the matter is, Cozart is a perfectly fine 8-hole hitting plus fielding SS for a contending team. His numbers will even out. I doubt Gregorious will be much better over the next year or two. But even if he was, I don’t know who we have to trade unless you’re willing to part with Stephenson or maybe Lively (who isn’t worth anything at the moment but should be considered off limits until we have a better sense of what he can be).

Didi is an offensive catalyst – something Cozart definitely is not as he’s currently a huge dead spot in the Red’s line-up. I understand its early, but a good GM thinks outside of the box – thus my earlier mention of Billy Beane. Good GMs don’t wait until they are buried in a hole too deep to crawl out of before making the necessary adjustments. And Didi is simply buried on the worst team in the NL. Thus approach them to see what they actually want before jumping to the conclusion that they would want Stephenson or Lively. All it would take is a phone call.

And really don’t think it would take breaking the bank to get Didi. But a sure sign of a good GM is the talent he has stock piled in the minors – and sadly the Red’s minor league system appears severely depleted – could this possibly have something to do with the quality of leadership in the GM’s office?

Comparing Didi to the current incumbent a player another team began to walk this week and once they realized that they were facing Cozart (who hits worse than a lot of pitchers) – they proceeded to pitch to him who then promptly pooped up at the plate.

And if the Braves announcers are questioning Cozart’s inability to hit – don’t you think others, including his team-mates, are wondering as well? Can definitely understand a SS hitting .200+ and being a defensive wiz for their team, but .140? What is Cozart, the lowest hitting starter in the NL right now (btw, the answer in ‘no’ – that distinction belongs to Curtis Granderson of the Mets)?

Comparing what other team’s announcers say about a player to what you think his own TEAMMATES are saying is just asinine. I’m sorry, but that’s ridiculous. These guys are all professional baseball players who have all gone through cold streaks dozens or even hundreds of times in their baseball playing lives. They know Cozart better than we do and they know what he’s capable of better than we do. I’m guessing they all feel really bad for the awful luck he’s having and the added pressure he’s putting on himself to try and hack his way out of it. I promise you there isn’t a single person in that clubhouse who honestly thinks Cozart has suddenly forgotten how to hit.

Cool, we are venting – that’s great – now where is the furor in the clubhouse by the team’s leaders? Where is the determination demonstrated years ago between Dibble and his manager Pinella? Btw, what happened the same year of that infamous fight? Oh, that’s right folks, the Reds went on to sweep the Oakland As in the last World Series won by the Reds. Lack of leadership and focus could very well be this team’s downfall. i certainly hope not.

Watch other teams and their players always seem to be able to work the count better and are more disciplined at the plate. Do the Reds even work on this – such as learning pitch recognition and selection? Or do they simply let players go up and hack away – often at the pitcher’s first offering?

About that BB/K ratio. I don’t worry as much about that one as I do BB/PA. In many, sometimes most cases a strikeout is just another out. But if you look at the bottom of the BB/PA stats for all the majors you get the same story with Hamilton then Phillips then Cozart among the bottom 20 (Cozart worst at 184 of 196). But the really odd thing is that the Reds also have two in the top ten – Votto and Bruce of course. Only Frazier is not superlative, lurking about 1/3 of the way down the list. I don’t see BP or Cozart changing their stripes much but JV and Bruce should bracket Hamilton on the bench every game and pass on some walking wisdom. I keep hearing he has a high baseball IQ and I believe it. It’s time for school to be in session.

I think the situation with Hamilton might be different than with the other two. Given his speed and base stealing capabilities added to the fact that Votto is batting immediately behind him, Hamilton is going to see strikes unless the pitcher is just in a bad groove where he can’t throw the ball in the strike zone. Not that he couldn’t do better at running the count; but, in the end are you going to groove a fastball to Hamilton or risk walking him? I think pretty much he is going to see the pitch that forces him to hit his way aboard.

You have to take into consideration who is batting behind these hitters as well …

Hamilton needs to walk more; no question. But watching his AB’s in Atlanta, he getting thrown strikes all the time. Even tonight, his AB’s all went Called Strike / Out or Called Strike / Called Strike / Out. He’s up at the plate trying to work the counts, but if he’s gonna start 0-2, I’d rather have him put the 0-1 pitch in play. Not to mention the borderline pitches have been mostly strikes against him this season …

Cozart on the other hand bats at the bottom. With the pitcher due up after him, I would think he’s in more of a position to be patient and work walks (as pitchers are less likely to throw him the good stuff). But not having watched his AB’s as closely as Hamilton’s, perhaps my comments are off-base (pun intended).

Strikeouts may not be much different from other outs from the standpoint of run scoring. But from the standpoint of evaluating a batter, it’s a lot more telling. The combination of swinging and missing, and not having plate discipline, is a decent single stat for looking at a hitter.

This team makes bums look like Cy Young on the mound year after year!!! I’m to the point with the so-called bench players this team has to plug into the holes brought on by health issues makes me give up on catching anybody! The only bench player we have that is worth anything is Chris H. All you have to do with him is pitch him offspeed and he is like the rest of the sorry bench this team has. Homer looks like the Homer of old where a couple of bad homerun shots doom him time and time again. Leake well I already resort to a loss whenever he pitches since I already know he will get touched up for a couple of bombs when he pitches. You let Hanigan go and you bring in Pena? Are you frigging serious? That’s 2 or more steps backwards in my book. I know this team will do nothing at all for the roster. I guess we better get used to be the reds of old I’m afraid. The Brew Crew are for real people. Look at the starting staff and they have alot of spark plugs that play with FIRE in the field that the reds cannot match!!!! I sure hope I’m wrong but beating up on the cubs means nothing too me whatsoever! The Braves are not sending out Maddux, Smoltz etc. Quit acting like they are and playing afraid already!!!!

I know its going to take a while for Hamilton to get used to big league pitching. Then, we shall see if he will do any good for the Reds or not. Right now….Cozart, then the Pitcher Spot, then Hamilton is pretty much 3 dead outs when they come up. I know its a long long season, but Cozart is declining, rather than improving. I remember last year when Dusty was bent on batting Cozart 2nd, Dusty said that “someday” Cozart would be a good #2 hitter. I don’t know when that “someday” will be? I think Cozart may be good in the American League where they have the DH Rule, and an AL Team would just need Cozart’s glove, not really his bat. After a few years, players are going to be who they are. I think Cozart will improve his average from 140, but not much. Remember the same thing with Drew Stubbs, the newspaper said, “Stubbs working on cutting down on his “K’s”, but never never did. He was traded to the Indians, and now I believe he is on the Rockies. This is just wishful thinking, but think if we had a healthy Johnny Cueto a few years back in that series against the Giants, where we blew a 2-0 league….imagine if he pitched in that series like he has in the couple games against the Pirates!

Oh well. What can you do.. on my list of least liked sport franchises the Braves are a solid second. Really hate losing to them…really,really hate being swept by them, which confidence in Cueto aside, is pretty likely at this point. I have more confidence in the Braves ability to score a run or two against our ace than the Reds ability to score on theirs.

I love Cozarts glove, BUT dang he’s painful to watch at the plate. He doesn’t have to be Barry Larkin, but it would be nice if he could at least bat in the low .200’s…..or his own weight.
He is so bad I’d consider moving him up from the 8 spot…him followed by the pitcher’s spot is way to easy for the opposing pitcher…two pretty sure outs back to back in the lineup.

Look, we all know what Cozart is and we know he’s not this bad. He’s never had an OPS+ lower than 80 and right now he’s at 11. ELEVEN. His BABIP is .156. He’s not hurt and has shown he still has some thump in his bat. He is due for a major correction. Healthy 28 year old ballplayers don’t suddenly lose 70 points of OPS+ in one offseason. He’s obviously had a terrible month, but it happens. It’s horrible timing given the injuries – you’d hope in a month like this that your regulars would step up with some hot streaks. But if he went through a streak like this in July instead of April people would probably be a little worried but we wouldn’t see nearly this much hand wringing.

I don’t buy in to the correction thing. Some players just lose it. There is a wasteland of players that have had a good or decent year or 2 and then fallen off the planet.
Just because a player hit .254 last year and it says .240 in the back of his baseball card doesn’t mean he will do the same this year. if that was true, Pete Rose should be able to come back and hit .300. No, that’s not a good example but you get my point.
Until Cozart changes his approach at the plate (the ability to work counts and get walks) and changes his swing plane (he has a bad uppercut – this needs to become a level swing), he is just not going to hit. Is he a .140 hitter? Probably not but I could see him ending the season in the .170-.180 range.
The fact that Cozart has only 1 walk after 24 games from the 8 hole is frightening. He has zero intentional walks. Teams would rather pitch to him, even with runners on, then walk him to get to the pitcher. heck, the Reds pitchers are hitting over .200 and have more walks.
The other thing I see with Cozart’s bat right now is that it is very slow. That results in easy outs. That is one of the reasons his BABIP is so low. If he was hitting balls hard and just happened to be hitting the ball right at defenders, I could see it. But a player is not going to improve much with a slow bat.

The BABIP suggests he’s still suffering from seriously bad luck. And I guess there have been instances of guys declining suddenly, I doubt you’ll find too many instances of a guy putting up consistent numbers throughout their minor league career, through 3 years of their major league career, and then losing 70 points of OPS+ overnight with no injuries. Now, he may not have a correction in the sense that he goes on a .300 hitting tear to bring his season numbers up to his norms, but there’s no reason to think he won’t at least start hitting like that 80 OPS+ guy again sooner than later and that’s fine for what he’s asked to do.

So I said a couple weeks ago that if the Reds were 10 games out of 1st place by May that might be too deep of a hole to climb out of. As people have said in this thread, all the Brewers have to do from here on out is play .500 baseball and they’ll win 92 games. Looking at May the schedule doesn’t get any easier and We’ll probably be without Mes for most if not all of the month. I just don’t know guys…

15 day DL plus I would imagine a rehab assignment. I’m not holding my breath about seeing him in a Reds uniform for at least 3 weeks. Hope I’m wrong. And the fact of the matter is Mes really HAS been that important to the offense, especially batting in the bottom of the order. Without him we’re pretty much a crap shoot from 6-9. He obviously wasn’t going to keep those numbers up all year, but he was acting as an anchor and a rally sustainer in that spot. If anything was going to trip up his hot streak it was going to be a DL stint.

We have 19 games still to come vs the Brewers. So if we had equal records the rest of the way and win the series vs them 13-6, we’re fine. (They still have 16 vs the Cardinals, BTW.) Basically, looking at the April schedule, even without all the injuries I would have been happy to come out of the month at .500. It looks like we’ll be close to that, playing with a team really hurt by injuries. If Latos is able to return, if Cueto stays healthy, if Homer just returns to form, and if Hamilton can get his OBP above .300 I think we’ll be fine.

Anybody know what happened in the 1st inning with Bruce not scoring on Ludwick’s double? Our crack TV announcing crew failed to comment. At first I thought the 3rd base coach was gun shy after his horrible start to the season, and that he–probably correctly, given how fast the ball got to the wall and what a lucky bounce it took for Upton–held Bruce up.

But then before the bottom of the 7th in the game recap FSO showed an angle where you could see BP scoring and behind him the 3rd base coach windmilling his arm as if he was sending Bruce. Should Bruce have scored? Was he being sent, but smartly decided to ignore his incompetent coach and held himself up? Based on what I was able to see, that’s what I think happened, which means Bruce probably saved his coach from further embarrassment. But was anyone there, or see a better angle somewhere, or listen to an announcing crew discuss why a guy with decent speed didn’t score on a 2-out double?

All is not lost if the Reds can get a couple runs today for Jonny Cueto and then take 2 of 3 from the Cubs. That will put them at .500 to face the Brewers and Red Sox. After splitting those two series, the winning streak will start.

If the Reds win today, they could easily be at or above .500 for the month of April. While that’s not great in relation to the Brewers’ fast start, it’s not bad considering the injuries and slow start from some of the players.

Frazier back in the lineup today. That’s good news, but he better take care of the tight groin. The Reds simply need to get and stay healthy this season if they have any realistic chance at a division title. A healthy Reds lineup can probably play with anyone, but the Reds probably have a thinner margin of error regarding the gap between their starters and utility/role players than most teams.