Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

While both shows are certain to be canceled, folks often wonder about how long they'll last on the schedule. Guessing that timing is a lot harder for the cancellation bear than just the final outcome, but I'll give it a try.

Both of this seasons doomed dramas are doing better than Charlie's Angels, but worse than Pan Am. On that basis, I'd expect somewhere between 7 and 13 episodes each. An extra episode or two ordered for scheduling purposes (like Pan Am received) would not surprise me. Although certainly any extra episodes will give hope to the crazy and desperate, just like Pan Am did last season, some of whom still aren't sure it was canceled. Did I mention that it did great internationally?

Why is Castle likely to be renewed, with almost exactly the same ratings as Scandal which is only a "toss up"? While Castle is already sold into syndication, and will by the end of this season have more than the required minimum number of episodes for stripped syndication, my conventional wisdom is that more episodes are always better (for the bottom line). Scandal doesn't benefit from that assumption since it's only a sophomore.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2013

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013

- certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

@AndromeI have a feeling that ABC will be The New NBC at the end of this season.

It wasn’t too long ago that NBC was the new ABC!

Ann

@Lynn

I made a simple spelling mistake that does make me stupid.

*falls over laughing*

aleksander eide

does anyone actually thinks that modern family will be cancelled

Kavyn

Considering they have nothing to replace them with I’m expecting the two to last at least until midseason.

John

I watched just 1 episode of Last Resort and I can tell you why nobody’s watching: we’re getting sick and tired of shows that have the American government and military as the villains. And we don’t think the captain showed “courageous restraint” by refusing to launch his missiles. He may be a hero to the Hollywood elite but if we actually did go to war and our sub commanders refused to carry out their orders, that would be the end of America.

gerry

@ john

hollywood elite? hahahahaha!

OR last resort is a male skewing show up against comedies on cbs and nbc, as well as sports.

Jason Miller

The only show I used to watch on ABC was Modern Family. This season I added 666 Park Avenue & Last Resort. Both are really good shows and like nothing else on tv. By the looks of things it will soon be back to one ABC show. Guess I’ll enjoy them while they last.

Richard Steven Hack

Last Resort has its moments and also SOME decent acting, but the show is so terminally implausible that it has no chance of surviving. I love Dichen Lachman but she doesn’t need to be on the show, and neither do the island thugs – they’re all a waste of time. They need to get the conspiracy moving faster and stop with the slow submarine minutes. But none of that will help them even if they do it.

The only other shows I watch are Castle, UOAT, and Revenge – all of whom are likely safe. And only Revenge is one I really care about, however much fun Castle is.

Richard Steven Hack

John: Yeah, right…

I assume you’re panting with eagerness to nuke Iran over its (non-existent) “nuclear weapons program”…

I suspect if there is any political reason people aren’t watching Last Resort (and I don’t think there is, it’s just a bad premise), it’s because people are sick of watching the US attack every country with brown people there is…and having US troops bear the brunt of the result…for no reason other than supporting the military-industrial complex and the oil companies.

Anthony Parello (AP076)

Honey Badger
Posted October 16, 2012 at 11:02 AM
“Don’t take the remarks by others seriously; it is just part of the fun on this site.
I personally like it when Bill Gorman and Robert Seidman and others use a clever sarcastic remark about my postings, it is a badge of honor.”

I am not sure I would take it as being sarcastic or a badge of honor when on the bubble watch post Robert wrote”
“@Honey Badger: if by bold you mean “nonsensical-crazy-I-don’t-have-any-idea-what-I’m-talking-about-but-comment-multiple-dozens-of-times-a-week-acting-like-I-do-anyway”…then yes.”

But believe what you want.

Anthony Parello (AP076)

@John

Malarkey!!!!!!!!

eridapo

Things are getting desperate for the Cancellation Bear. After being force-fed “Next Caller” last week, it hasn’t had anything to eat.

It is the bear’s damn fault. Someone kept telling him that Fox would be providing his next meal, so he has made the Fox lot his new home. In the meantime, it is letting other tastier meals escape its grasp.

downthehatch

As an avid watcher of TV I understand the ratings thing. May not agree with it, but understand that no matter how much one may like a show, if it doesn’t deliver the ratings…down it goes to quote Emily Thorne. What really bad are the time slots these shows were given. I think if they were given better time slots they might fare better. I say might because BOTH shows could be a little stronger especially Last Resort…too many plates spinning. That one will be cancelled for sure. 666, I am not so sure about…ABC has a killer line up for Sunday nights. The whole advertising for the entire night has been pretty amazing, so let’s hope they keep that around for at least the full season.

David

I don’t understand the love for “Revenge”. I feel like every time I watch that show, I’m just watching a prolonged soap opera. Besides Emily Thorne (played by Emily VanCamp), all the characters are so un-likeable.

The reason I even make the statement above is, no one can ever truly pinpoint as to why shows succeed and don’t succeed (in terms of a plot/character perspective). A show that I may think is terrible will get renewed while a show I loved (Pushing Daisies) didn’t even make it out of its sophmore year. I think a show’s success/non-success has a lot more to do with scheduling than anything.

Holly

Stop posting fake news.

Jared

The problem with 666 is that it doesn’t know which type of show it wants to be. Its too glossy and colorful to be considered horror and appeal to horror fans..yet there’s not enough sex..drug..murder/mystery backstory to appeal to fans of soaps like Revenge/Scandal etc. I couldn’t wait for this show to premiere..it was probably the series I was looking most forward to..until I seen the pilot.

Paul

666 Looked like a stupid concept for a weekly series. A lifetime movie yes.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

@Mike, once chastised for posting fake news (and attributing it to a credible source), second time banned (and fake news deleted).

Post your fake news elsewhere!

AppleStinx

Giving the Bear false hopes of a meal when none is forthcoming amounts to animal cruelty.

Walter

I think Scandal will probably be renewed. I haven’t seen the Live + SD ratings for the this season, but from what I see the series seems to be hovering around the ratings from last season, which I thought were pretty decent.