Weekend Predictions: Box Office Retaliation or Surrender?

March 29th, 2013

It's Easter long weekend and three films will be battling for box office domination. G.I. Joe: Retaliation is the only one that really has a shot at success. The Host is earning some of the worst reviews for a wide release for the entire year, which is not surprising given the source material. Meanwhile, Temptation is not being screened for critics. It is likely The Croods will be pushed into second place, but should remain strong thanks to the holiday. This weekend last year was led by The Hunger Games with $58 million. There's almost no chance any new release will match that. In fact, there's a chance no film will top last year's second place film, Wrath of the Titans. 2013 is going to get slapped around again.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation is the sequel to Rise of Cobra. That film earned weak reviews, but still managed over $300 million worldwide. This film is earning even weaker reviews with a lot of critics complaining it is action without substance. Then again, sometimes you want action without substance. The release date is much weaker for this film, so it will likely not have the same $54 million opening. In fact, it likely won't earn that much over the full four-day weekend. Look for $9 million on Thursday and $37 million over the weekend proper.

The Croods will place second with $28 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $89 million. It should hold better than most thanks in part to reviews and in part to the holidays. This is a solid start and it is very likely this film will earn a profit before it gets to the home market, but it isn't a monster hit.

Tyler Perry's latest film is Temptation. There are no reviews and little chance to find an audience outside of its target demographic. Fortunately, that demographic is large enough that the film could open with more than $20 million over the weekend. $18 million is more likely, but that's still a good start.

Olympus Has Fallen has more or less direct competition from G.I. Joe: Retaliation. Retaliation is aimed at a younger crowd, but it will likely steal enough moviegoers from this film that falling close to 50% is likely. That said, a sophomore stint of $16 million is still good for this time of year.

I wasn't expecting The Host to be a good movie. After all, Stephenie Meyer is not a good writer. However, I also wasn't expecting reviews that were barely 10% positive. That's among the worst of all of the wide releases that have come out this year. Its box office chances are in the low to mid-teens range and $15 million is probably the most likely result.