Archive for November 2006

As I write this blog entry, the wind is already increasing across western KELOLAND. That’s the one part of our climate I could do without…but it defines our area and it’s what we expect. The wind chill will be the big story and could be very cold for many areas. Here are the forecast windchills tomorrow at noon.It gets even worse by Thursday morning!With weather like this…please remember your winter survival kit.
The following items should be included in your winter weather survival kit:

Shovel
First aid kit
Non-perishable food, such as granola bars and peanuts.
Flashlight with extra batteries
Candles and matches
Extra clothing, sleeping bags or blankets for everyone
Tire Chains
Battery-operated radio with batteries
Empty coffee can to be used to burn the candles or to melt snow for water.
Booster cables
Cell phone with fully charged batteries

The World Meteorological Organization reports that the temperature of the earth last month goes into the books as the 4th warmest October since records began in 1880. That does not surprise me, since I have been receiving a lot of email from my colleagues around the world relating report after report about their weather being exceptionally hot. I sent emails back to several of my friends with the tongue-in-cheek subject line, "Americans Refuse to Participate in Global Warming." While Europe and the rest of the world have been warmer than normal the past two months, here in the U.S. we have actually had below-average temperatures in September and October. Despite the fact that large sections of our country are still suffering from drought, October was also precipitation-filled, the 12th wettest October on record.Scientifically-speaking, weather in the U.S. only represents a small fraction of what is going on around the globe, so one cannot infer that conditions in our country are typical of what is going on elsewhere. Global weather is a chaotic system that is always trying (mostly unsuccessfully) to balance itself. So it is perfectly reasonable that we can be wet and cool while the rest of the globe bakes.

I unveiled the winter forecast during the KELOLAND Live Doppler Winter Special on Monday night. For those of you who may have missed it, here it is…

This is my forth winter prediction, and so far I’m one for three. My first prediction was for 50-60", we ended up with 56.6" that year…not bad for a rookie. The second year, I didn’t do so well. I called for 35-45" and we ended up with 27.4", way off. But that includes the inch of rain that fell in February. If that rain were snow, I may have been in range. Last year’s called for 40-50" and we ended with 35.1", but again, a half-inch of rain fell in January. This year, October has already brought in the cold and snow, but it may not last for the winter, here’s a look at what to expect. We already have it in the books that the coming year will be an El Nino type year. Current forecasts show that el nino is not only expected to continue, but gain strength. Just because it’s el nino, doesn’t mean we can’t get snow storms early in the year. Two of the top five heaviest autumn snow storms in Sioux Falls fell during an el nino year. One snow storm gave us 13.4" on November 10 in 1998 and the other is the infamous Halloween Blizzard of 1991 with a storm total of 12.1". Both those years we ended up with above average snowfall. In 1991 we finished with 47.9" and in 1998 we had 55.2". Well aside from seeing maybe one good snow storm, I don’t expect to see much snowfall through December, but do expect January through March to carry the load of the snow this year. And it makes sense. If we expect above average temperatures, it should be easier to see the best chances at getting snow during the coldest months of the year, January and February. While that may sound good in theory, those are the months that blew my prior forecasts because of rain. So here it is, I believe El Nino will influence us with above average temperatures, especially during the second half of winter when our average highs are in the low to mid 20s and average lows near zero. I also believe this will be below average for snowfall. Our typical winter brings about 40" of snow to Sioux Falls, I think we’ll be below again this year. I’m shooting for a range of 28-38" with an exact number of 33.4". If this holds true, it will mark the third consecutive below average snow total for Sioux Falls. That hasn’t happened since the 70s.

The career scientist faced an overwhelming dilemma: recant his life’s work and deny his long-held beliefs – or face the wrath of his church.

Galileo was on trial for heresy, because he publicly opposed the existing belief that the sun revolved around the earth. Under pressure, Galileo changed his position, stating “I must altogether abandon the false opinion… that the earth is not the center of the world.” In exchange for his confession, Galileo received house arrest.

Today, climatologists and a few meteorologists face a similarly important career choice. The issue is not their positions regarding astronomical objects, but whether man and machine have combined to raise our planet’s temperature. Global warming theories do not put scientists in prison, but research money connected with those theories does put food on their table. Being on the wrong side of the issue, whatever that is, can ruin a career.

Billions of dollars is spent on global warming research in the United States alone. Most of the grant money has been doled out to scientists whose studies conclude that human activities have caused the earth to warm, it will continue, and the result will be disastrous. That represents the consensus of the scientific community, and that view is considered mainstream. Detractors call scientists who hold that belief alarmists or environmental activists.

A smaller group of scientists, some of whom also hold impressive resumes, possess a different view. They downplay the temperature trends, computer models, and predicted environmental disasters. Like the other side, they also earn their salaries and funding from grants. For the rest of their careers, they will be known as skeptics, or more derogatory terms like “energy industry lackeys”. They have become banished from the mainstream.

Scientists, who used to be viewed as impartial voices of reason, are now looked upon as pawns of their paymasters. Interestingly, their work produces long-range forecasts that will not be verified in our lifetimes. Like Galileo, we will not know who is correct until long after most of us are dead.

Fall is my favorite time of the year…mostly because of the fond memories I have growing up on the farm and the harvest. I recently visited the farm and will make another trip with my family soon. The methods of farming have changed a lot over the years and the weather-stress these crops can take is amazing. My folks live near Atlantic, Iowa…a town of about 7,500 between Omaha and Des Moines. As long as there’s enough moisture, the gently rolling hills of that region will produce a good crop. I took this picture of dad’s combine with my camera phone. As you can see, the bean crop looks pretty good. That part of Iowa received just enough rain to keep the crops healthy, but never enough to replenish the subsoil moisture. The wells have been in poor shape for about a year, but have recently improved after some heavy rain late this summer. We still use these red wagons to haul in beans. We have bigger equipment too, but I remember these the best. They’ve been around ever since I was a kid! The field in the picture above looks pretty good this year…but that hasn’t always been the case. The extreme weather of the 1990′s flooded most of the foreground many times when I was growing up. It proved to me just how variable the weather could be from year to year. Let’s pray South Dakota farmers get a break in 2007 and see some good crops like the folks in Iowa have had this year.