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SEC Football 2016 Predictions

Complete preview of the SEC for 2016.

After a two-year drought, the SEC is back on top. Sort of. The SEC really never left its spot as college football’s No. 1 league, but Florida State (2013) and Ohio State (2014) gained control of the national title and prevented the SEC from extending its dominance after winning seven straight titles from 2006-12.

Alabama has won four out of the last seven national titles and is Athlon’s pick to win it all in 2016. The Crimson Tide need to find a new quarterback and patch the offensive line, but the defense and ground attack can carry Nick Saban’s team to the SEC title. LSU, Tennessee and Ole Miss are all playoff contenders and projected by Athlon to finish in the top 10 for 2016.

Outside of Tennessee in the East Division, Georgia and Florida rank as top 25 teams for 2016, with uncertainty surrounding Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri and South Carolina in the next tier. The East is also home to the league’s three new coaches – Barry Odom, Missouri, Kirby Smart, Georgia and Will Muschamp, South Carolina.

In the West Division, LSU needs to find a quarterback to push Alabama at the top, while Ole Miss can lean on quarterback Chad Kelly to alleviate the departures of Robert Nkemdiche (DL), Laremy Tunsil (OL) and Laquon Treadwell (WR). Arkansas could be a top 25 team if Austin Allen provides steady play at quarterback, with Texas A&M and Auburn in the next tier. Mississippi State is projected to finish seventh in the West, but Dan Mullen’s team won’t slip too far – even after losing arguably the best player in school history (Dak Prescott).

Five Key Questions That Will Shape the SEC in 2016

1. Are Tennessee and Alabama the Clear Favorites to Win the SEC?

Barring a surprise upset or two, it seems likely Alabama and Tennessee will meet twice during the 2016 season. Sure, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia and Florida could surprise and win their division, but on paper, the Crimson Tide and the Volunteers will be heavy favorites to meet in Atlanta. These two teams also have a regular season matchup on Oct. 15 in Knoxville, as Tennessee will be looking for its first victory over Alabama since 2006. While Athlon’s projection of the Volunteers to finish No. 7 in 2016 surprised some fans around the SEC, this is Butch Jones’ best team in Knoxville and it would be a major disappointment if Tennessee didn’t win the East. The Volunteers return 18 starters, the overall depth and talent has improved thanks to the recruiting efforts of this coaching staff, and the defense will take a step forward with the addition of coordinator Bob Shoop. Alabama isn’t without question marks, but it’s hard to pick against a team that has the nation’s best collection of overall talent. Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris are capable of keeping the ground attack performing at a high level with Derrick Henry off to the NFL, and the receiving corps could be the best in the SEC. And as usual in Tuscaloosa, the defense will rank among the nation’s best – if not No. 1.

As mentioned above, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Georgia or LSU made it to the SEC Championship. However, in Athlon’s prediction meetings, Georgia and LSU were regarded as the toughest teams to project for 2016. Talent certainly isn’t an issue for either program, but the Bulldogs have a new coaching staff, uncertainty at quarterback and a rebuilt front seven on defense. While Mark Richt won a lot of games in Athens, a fresh start under Kirby Smart may not be a bad thing. Will Georgia have an easy transition to Smart and the new staff? Or will the transition take a season? At LSU, the preseason storylines sound rather familiar. With Leonard Fournette leading the way, the Tigers have one of the nation’s best ground attacks. Additionally, the defense – directed by new coordinator Dave Aranda – is loaded with speed, athleticism and talent. However, how much can LSU squeeze out of its passing game and quarterback Brandon Harris? The Tigers don’t need a ton of production out of the passing attack but improvement is essential to beating Alabama for the SEC West title.

It’s safe to say 2016 isn’t shaping up to be a banner year for quarterback play in the SEC. Only two teams – Ole Miss (Chad Kelly) and Tennessee (Joshua Dobbs) – enter the season with a clear answer at quarterback. Considering the question marks surrounding this position, it’s easy to see why there’s a lot of uncertainty (more than usual) in the SEC predictions. How quickly will Jacob Eason emerge as Georgia’s starter? How much of an upgrade is Luke Del Rio over Treon Harris at Florida? LSU needs Brandon Harris to take the next step in his development for the Tigers to challenge for the SEC title. Alabama also has uncertainty at quarterback, but the Crimson Tide are two-for-two under coordinator Lane Kiffin in finding the right answer at this position. Austin Allen is slated to replace his brother (Brandon) at quarterback for Arkansas, while Auburn and Texas A&M are expected to turn to a transfer this season. Just how questionable is this position right now? LSU’s Brandon Harris or Georgia’s Jacob Eason are the leading candidates to be the No. 3 quarterback in this league entering fall practice.

How quickly the outlook for Gus Malzahn and Kevin Sumlin has changed over the last couple of seasons. Auburn played for the national championship in Malzahn’s first year but slipped to 8-5 in 2014 and regressed to 7-6 in 2015. And perhaps even more troubling for Malzahn? His side of the ball – the offense – averaged only 22.1 points in SEC games last season. While Auburn has recruited well, major improvement in the win column is unlikely in 2016. The offense enters the season with uncertainty at quarterback and an unsettled receiving corps, while the defense needs to take a step forward under new coordinator Kevin Steele. Adding to Malzahn’s challenge in 2016 is a schedule that features road trips to Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia and a home date against national title contender Clemson. Sumlin’s career path at Texas A&M is similar, as the Aggies posted 20 wins over his first two years, followed by back-to-back 8-5 campaigns. Fixing a porous defense was Sumlin’s top priority after the 2014 season. The addition of John Chavis paid dividends in 2015, and this unit should take another step forward in 2016. However, Sumlin’s biggest concern is the offense. Quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray transferred prior to the Music City Bowl last year, and the Aggies will be relying on Oklahoma graduate transfer Trevor Knight as the starter for new coordinator Noel Mazzone. Both teams have the talent to easily exceed their preseason expectations. However, neither team will rank among the top 25 in the nation without an answer emerging at the quarterback position.

5. Sorting Out the Bottom of the SEC East

The tiers in the SEC East are pretty clear for 2016. Tennessee is the heavy favorite to win the division, with Georgia and Florida vying for the No. 2 and No. 3 spots. After that? It’s a tossup. Very little separates Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Missouri for next four spots. Kentucky and Vanderbilt tied for fourth in the division last year at 2-6 in league play, while South Carolina and Missouri tied at 1-7. A similar scenario should play out in 2016. The Wildcats are Athlon’s pick to emerge out of that four-team group for the No. 4 spot, as Mark Stoops’ team has a favorable home schedule – Mississippi State, South Carolina and Vanderbilt – and should improve on offense with the addition of new play-caller Eddie Gran. Vanderbilt and Missouri are strong on defense, but both teams enter the year with question marks on offense. South Carolina has plenty of work to do under new coach Will Muschamp. The Gamecocks return only seven starters, and top linebacker Skai Moore was recently ruled out for the year due to injury. With question marks at quarterback and few proven skill players, all signs point to 2016 as a rebuilding year for Muschamp and the new staff.

SEC 2016 Team Previews

East Division

National

Rank:

20

16

56

62

63

7

57

West Division

National

Rank:

1

26

35

9

41

10

28

Visit the Athlon Sports Online Store to order a copy of the 2016 SEC Preview Magazine, which features in-depth analysis and previews for all 14 teams, predictions, rankings and features to prepare for the upcoming year.