Politics Journal: Mayawati Banks on Dalits and Muslims

BSP supporters held placards at a political rally ahead of Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly elections, in Lucknow, Dec. 18, 2011.

Click on the website of the Bahujan Samaj Party, headed by the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh and Dalit leader Kumari Mayawati, and the moving scroll on the masthead gives you a fair idea of the party’s sense of self.

“Capture this ‘Temple of Power’ For Your Emancipation,” says one slogan, emblazoned on a picture of Parliament House in Delhi. “Political power is the master key using which you can open all the doors of your progress and self-respect,” says another, imprinted on a group of women, presumably all voters that the BSP has already scooped into its tent.

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Below the slogans is the ubiquitous strap line: Sarvajan Hitay, Sarvajan Sukhay (For the rights and prosperity of all the people.)

This last is a reference to Ms. Mayawati’s rainbow coalition of castes that she pulled together before the state elections were held in 2007, with such stunning success, capturing 206 seats out of 403 in the state assembly.

As UP prepares to go to the polls again over seven phases through February and early March, Ms. Mayawati is gearing up for the most important political battle of her life. At stake is a state often considered the wind vane of Indian politics, with 80 seats in the federal parliament. How the ballot boxes come in when counting is held on March 6 will heavily influence the remaining life of the Congress-led government until general elections are held in 2014.

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Ms. Mayawati received a garland made of Indian currency, in Lucknow, March 17, 2010.

All eyes are on UP, not only because of its huge population of 170 million people. All the key players are expected to make or break their larger political reputations in this state, whether Rahul Gandhi of the Congress, Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party or Ms. Mayawati of the BSP.

Even Priyanka Gandhi, Rahul’s sister and Sonia Gandhi’s daughter but otherwise a determined stay-at-home mother, has descended upon the poll map, although she has decided to limit herself to the territory covered by her mother and brother’s federal constituencies in Rae Bareli and Amethi, respectively.

The Bharatiya Janata Party is such a distant fourth in UP that its irrelevance is compounded by the fact that it is unlikely to stitch up alliances with any of the state’s more powerful parties.

In UP these days, much is being made of the so-called “Muslim vote,” with every party scheming on how to get the state’s 20% Muslim population on board. But in the permutation and combination that drives the political math, the other big voting chunk falls under the label of “Dalit” or “Most Backward Caste” votes.

As India’s main Dalit leader, it is obvious Ms. Mayawati has more than an edge in this department. But in a repeat of 2007, Ms. Mayawati is once again planning a rainbow coalition of candidates for 2012, with the Dalits again at its nerve center.

That is why Dalits top her list of candidates with 88 seats, with Muslims a close second with 85 seats. The upper castes have together got 117 seats, of which Brahmins have got 74 seats (down from 86 in 2007), while the backward and most backward castes have got 113 seats between them (in 2007, they had 120 seats).

Interestingly, the Congress is taking a leaf out of Ms. Mayawati’s copy-book, even though it could probably teach the rest of India a thing or two about caste stratagem, considering it was the first to target (as long ago as the 1960s) both Muslims and “Harijans” – as Dalits were known for decades, or “people of God,” a term employed by Mahatma Gandhi.

That is why in this UP election, old caste formulae are being revived – albeit with a difference. The Congress seems to have come to the painful conclusion that Rahul Gandhi’s charm is not about to win it more than 40-50 seats. Moreover, party officials admit they may have left it a little too late to plunge deeply into the bewildering ocean of backward, most backward and other backward castes.

Still, you could give the Congress a few marks for trying. For over a year, young Rahul has veered off the beaten track in UP and stayed overnight in Dalit homes and shared their food, often to the accompaniment of Ms. Mayawati’s taunts.

Rahul and the rest of the Congress have ignored the opposition jibes about his rediscovery of India. But having failed to unleash an army of local leaders on the ground, they are hoping that the targeting of the state’s Muslims and its Dalits will make for at least a last-minute partial miracle.

On the Muslim front, reports from UP continue to be mixed. Many are talking about the Peace Party, led by a former doctor called Mohammed Ayub, which is also hoping to target the state’s Muslims.

As for the Dalits, a Congress leader told IRT that two of the party’s best-known, north Indian Dalit faces – P.L. Punia, member of parliament from Barabanki in UP and a former chairman of the National Scheduled Castes commission, and Ashok Tanwar, member of parliament from Sirsa in Haryana and a former student leader with enormous grass-roots political experience – had been asked to identify and mentor a hundred Dalit leaders in UP.

“The Congress knows that the Most Backward Castes will stay with Mayawati, but we hope to wean away some of the Backwards from the edges,” the Congress leader said.

Meanwhile, Ms. Mayawati’s 2007 magic seems to have considerably faded. And despite her dismissal of both Rahul Gandhi as well as her more serious opponent, the Samajwadi party, the truth is that somehow both have got under her skin.

The BSP’s website, in the Hindi news section, liberally displays stories from the UP Hindi language press. But note the selection: Out of 15 top posts, the Congress party was being targeted in 10, including Rahul being directly named in three of them, while in another post, Samajwadi party leader Akhilesh Yadav’s drinking habits were being discussed.

Clearly, the gloves are off as the campaign in UP gets well and truly underway.

Jyoti Malhotra is a freelance journalist based in New Delhi. She writes for India’s Business Standard daily and for Pakistan’s Express Tribune.

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