El Nino Probable by July for MDA as Temperatures Warm in Pacific

An El Nino weather pattern, which
can parch Australia and parts of Asia while bringing rains to
South America, will probably develop by July, according to
forecaster MDA Weather Services.

The chances of El Nino emerging later in the northern
hemisphere summer are 75 percent, said Donald Keeney, senior
agricultural meteorologist at Gaithersburg, Maryland-based MDA.

El Ninos affect weather worldwide and can roil agricultural
markets as farmers contend with drought or too much rain. The
phenomenon often touches off warmer winters across the northern
U.S., heavier rains from southern Brazil to Argentina and drier
conditions across southeast Asia, Indonesia and eastern
Australia. It also can lead to a calmer Atlantic hurricane
season and a stormier winter in the U.S. South.

“There is a high probability of El Nino developing later
this summer,” Keeney said by e-mail in response to questions.
“This should become most pronounced in mid to late summer.”

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino watch
this month. There’s a 52 percent chance that the Pacific Ocean
will warm enough to trigger the weather pattern late this summer
or in early fall, according to climate scientist Michelle
L’Heureux. There’s a 75 percent chance that one will occur in
late 2014, according to a report in the journal PNAS last month.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said March 11 that most
climate models show temperatures approaching or exceeding El
Nino thresholds during the austral winter. Australia’s winter
begins in June. The pattern is associated with below-normal rain
in the second half of the year across large parts of southern
and inland eastern Australia, according to the bureau.

Rubber, Palm

A record 79 percent of Australia’s Queensland state is in
drought, threatening cotton and sugar production and boosting
cattle slaughter. Rubber output in Thailand, Indonesia and
Malaysia is set to drop 6 percent to 8 percent this year because
of dry conditions, according to the International Rubber
Consortium Ltd. Dry weather parched oil-palm trees in Indonesia
and Malaysia this year.

El Nino typically creates very ideal growing conditions in
the U.S. Midwest during the summer, Art Douglas, meteorologist
at Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska, said Feb. 5.