Asia

Japan's election

Shinzo Abe's sumo-sized win

A FORMER prime minister, who resigned in 2007 after a shambolic first year in office, and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which two years later was hounded out of the governing role that it had taken as its birthright, are both headed for a remarkable return to power. In the hours after midnight it became clear that an LDP-led coalition was going to secure a two-thirds majority in the lower house of parliament. Shinzo Abe will be back at the head of government.

In a crushing defeat for the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), NHK, the national broadcaster, reported results showing the LDP had easily secured a majority in the lower-house election, a position it had held for more than half a century until 2009. With its coalition partner, New Komeito, it will control a two-thirds super-majority in the 480-seat house. This will give it the ability to override the upper house, in which the DPJ remains the largest party. Sunday night results showed that the LDP had won at least 293 seats, and New Komeito at least 30 seats.

An NHK exit poll said the DPJ was expected to win no more than 77 seats, which would represent a collapse in support, compared with the 308-seat landslide it won in 2009. Its leader, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, announced that he would step down as head of the party as a result of the defeat.

The first post-midnight count showed that the DPJ, with at least 53 seats, was only doing marginally better than a newly formed party, the conservative Japan Restoration Party (JRP) founded by Osaka’s mayor, Toru Hashimoto. It had won at least 50 seats, NHK said. That makes it the biggest of the so-called “third-pole” parties that have arisen to challenge the two main parties in this election. But it will not be as powerful a force as some had expected when Mr Hashimoto launched it this year.

The victory for Mr Abe’s coalition represents yet another hard-to-fathom swing in Japan’s weathervane-like politics. Three years ago many heralded what looked like the end of an era when the LDP, which had held power almost constantly from 1955-2009, suffered a huge loss that left it with just 113 seats.

Its fall from grace had started in 2006 when it picked the conservative Mr Abe as prime minister. He spent a disastrous year in office, first winning over and then alienating prickly neighbours China and South Korea, and turning off voters with his obsessive patriotism at home and hawkishness abroad. When he left office in 2007, he was hospitalised with a stress-related illness.

To the surprise of even members of his own party, he was brought back from relative obscurity this autumn to head the LDP. Analysts say the resurrection of his party’s electoral fortunes can hardly be credited to him: it stems more from a backlash against the DPJ, which has shown itself to be weak and divided in office, running through three prime ministers, numerous defections and repeated reversals of its promises and policies.

In fact the LDP appears to have changed little during its time in opposition. Under Mr Abe, it may be even more dependent on its old guard than it was in 2009. But voters were so disenchanted with the DPJ, they held their noses and voted for the LDP anyway.

Mr Abe appeals to the party’s most conservative wing, who value his assertive stance towards China over a cluster of disputed islets called the Senkaku islands in Japan and the Diaoyu in China. He has spoken of reviving the massive public-works projects which were a hallmark of the old LDP. But in his first comments after his victory, Mr Abe said his priority would be beating deflation, and he also vowed to continue with a plan to raise the consumption tax. Stockmarkets have responded well to his promise to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to do more to end deflation, perhaps by setting a fixed inflation target.

One of the LDP’s campaign goals is to revise parts of the country’s war-renouncing constitution, which could enrage China and South Korea who still (as part of their own nationalism narratives) consider Japan an aggressor as a result of its wartime past. However, until upper-house elections in July, some analysts expect Mr Abe to tread gently and keep international provocations to a minimum—in the hope that voters will give the LDP a majority there, too. If it does plan to revise the constitution, said some LDP officials speaking shortly after the vote, the party may reach out to the JRP, which shares a similar goal and is led by Shintaro Ishihara, ex-governor of Tokyo and an arch-hawk and China-baiter.

As for Mr Noda, the outgoing prime minister, his party must be ruing his unexpected decision in mid-November to dissolve parliament. When he did so, Mr Noda had hoped the DPJ, if it didn’t win the lower-house election, would remain a credible force in the upper house and might be in position to benefit from another voter swing next summer. To judge by today’s projected results however, Mr Abe will have to perform remarkably badly indeed for that to happen.

Why does Japan keep shuffling the same uninspired, uninspiring old men into and out of power? Yes, the country does have a tradition of consensus politics and conformity, but surely in a country of 127 million people there's a charismatic leader or two to be found, someone who can rally the people, push out the old men and the time-servers,set a new agenda and restore the glory of Japan in the 1980s.

America at the moment may be politically gridlocked, but that will change, as our history demonstrates. The Japanese political system seems to be petrified. Worse yet, given the astonishingly low fertility rate, the country is on a path to senescence at every level.

Which info source are you using to talk about Japanese politics?
Japan is not taking the way to extreme right-wing, don't worry.
Majority people just did not like DPJ, they are not really supporting LDP. Even Abe made a comment which admitted this.
I hate Ishihara for his stupid comments on diplomacy.

I studied Nanjing massacre in my history class.
There is no records officially accepted in international community but I believe that some large scale killing must have happened.
And for sure there was brutal behaviors of Japanese soldiers during the war. Because it was a war. There were trials for war crimes.
Based on Potsdam Declaration, Peace Treaty signed in San Francisco, other bilateral treaties and agreements, and rule of international law, Japanese government completed compensation process.

Every year on anniversary of end of WWII, I pray for victims including those killed in Nanjing, Korea, Singapore, Thai, Philippines, other Asian countries, Hawaii as well as all the Japanese people who sacrificed their lives to protect their family and the country.
My grandfather ,who passed away a few years ago, used to say from his sickbed that he really did not want to go to war.

I feel really sad that so many Asians get manipulated by mass media and misunderstand about us.
Should discuss more about future, too. This is one of the reason why Asia has not achieved unity like Europe.

We never forget what happened and wanna work hard together so that our future prospers. Please understand that.

Japanese political system is well accustomed with the revolving chair game of its politicians and this time was no different except that it brought the old guard LDP to guide the country through the difficult economic times of no growth. Hope the thumping majority will give LDP the impetus to launch the much needed reforms in all sectors especially the economy.

And yet their currency has been much stronger than the dollar over the past several years. Since most of the debt holders are Japanese -- not Germans -- and printing money is a way to not only alleviate that debt but also create the desired inflation, I don't see how the comparison to Greece holds.

'It is not just "lost decade" or "two lost decades", but they are lost forever.'

So said Nostradamus and the Mayans. I guess the next soothsayer to be proved wrong is Sr G2x577moY4?

The problems are the metrics. Japan is a great country with a great future ahead of it. Its biggest threat isn't the economy or China but Mother Nature.

I recommend you to go to Japan to see how Japanese economy open to the businesses from foreign countries. In principle there is no tariff on industrial goods in Japan. And I recommend you to throw away the biased views on Japan.

I am a Japanese person who recently moved to US. I grew up in Japan for whole my life.

I can say that there is no charismatic and accountable leader like Obama or Romney in US. I never ever saw politicians like them in Japan. Presidential election last month was eye-opening for me. America is a unique country with politicians who have both real intelligence and people skill. Behind this lies the fact that democracy is something your country developed by itself, I believe. Not imported from abroad as Japan did after WWII.

At least for now, there is no productive debating culture or education in Japan(in fact, I had a debate at school just once though I am a graduate of one of top universities.), which I believe that lets quality of political debate and discussion very very low.
In average, people including major politicians, journalist and activists don't know how to build persuasive and productive discussions with good questions and answers with evidence/numbers/facts.
They often look like kids' battle of words. So much gossips and no focus, no priorities. Repeats of same boring past.

As a result of the above situation, election has been a popularity poll for many years.
If you look at each parties' manifest, they look alike a lot. Not many substantial differences.
People don't go to vote because there is no politicians for whom they wanna vote.

I don't say it's impossible to change.
But it takes time. We need to educate people and promote more productive discussion, decisions and actions.
People also need to get over their pessimistic attitude, which is probably the biggest obstacle...

There are some fixed dates on the Japanese Political Calender next year, such as the 3-yearly Upper house election in July. The whole political farce leading up to the recent Lower House election was partly affected by that fixed date.

Now that LDP is back in firm control of the Lower House, their main target is to make the Economy look good in Second Quarter 2013, in order to regain the control of the Upper House. That means the following:
1. Top priority is to restore damaged relationship with the US
2. No rocking of the boat against China (definitely no Yasukuni visits before July 2013, and probably even after that if the relationship does improve by then)
3. Massive supplementary budget (maybe 10 Trillion Yen plus) as an economic stimulus.

Since The Economist must be aware of the same Political Timetable, I find TE's inability or unwillingness to draw conclusions 1. and 2. on their own disturbing...

Ten years as an English Instructor on The Kanto Plane has taught me that the Japanese people should never be underestimated when it comes to character, persistance, resourcefulness and patience. Think about what the world has learned from them in regard to manufacturing, say nothing of other constructive aspects of the culture. With the return of Abe and the LDP, Japan may have a revolution which could be defined as Reaganesque. Since America has chosen the road paved by Greece and Spain, The Land of The Rising Sun may be the new City on a Hill.

This statement (cabinet decision) was irresponsibly made by a left-wing (therefore anti-Japan) who, by some accident, became a prime minister of Japan in 1995. It certainly does not reflect the sentiments of the majority of Japanese people. It is way one-sided ... Japanese have a habit of being too self-critical which has a nasty consequence in the international community.

Mr. Abe will make a cabinet decision to reverse this or at least make it more clear so people do not misunderstand.

He already said he will make a cabinet decision to reverse comfort women statement by Y. Kouno (which had no basis in the first place).

I think we have different definition for 'democratic'.
I don't think having no slavery system is enough to say it's democratic.
Of course, there is no perfect society.
America has many other problems which we don't have in Japan, such as health insurance, huge economic disparities, gun control, so much drug, Guantanamo etc.
Still if I monitor both political debate and decisions in two countries, I say US has more matured ones.
US also has more world leading think tanks.

Talking about results brought by governments, I don't think result delivery is better in Japan at all.
Smaller scale of corruption is good than bigger.
But I don't know how much it can help today's Japanese politics.
At least, it does not encourage Japanese voters enough to participate more seriously in politics.

But, Yeah, I agree that we have great long history.
And we have... hopefully great future and definitely great food!!

Japan was perfectly democratic before WW2. More democratic than the US (the blacks did not have right to vote until 1965 in the US).
Also, the enthusiasm that Americans have for politics might be something the Japanese might envy, but the result of American politics is terrible ... consistently widening wealth gap since the Reagan years.
Please remember. Politics is not all the Presidential debates ... it is the results.
American politics is corrupt (favors the rich and big businesses) and Japanese corruption is just peanuts. I think Mr. Ozawa recently was sued over 5 million dollars which is nothing compared to what the lobbyists receive in Washington.
So, do not feel so bad that you were born in Japan. You have great history and future!

Mr. Abe will probably visit Yasukuni soon, but it is not just for his grandfather (his grandfather did not die in combat so he is not resting in Yasukuni, I think). He is just going to pay respects to those died for the country, just like US president pays respects at Arlington memorial. There is no judgment involved.
If you consider yourself an Asian, you should know a bit more about WW2 and how it got started and ended. It is not just "One day, Japan invaded Manchuria. One day, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor."
In short, the victors (the allies) simply forced all the war responsibilities to Japan's so-called war criminals without giving them a fair trial. Injustice of Tokyo trials is well-documented. If you are interested I refer you to "The Tokyo Trials: The Unheard Defense" in the following link.http://www.sdh-fact.com/CL02_1/result.php?word=ZW
You seem to carelessly put the Germans and Japanese on the same level, and I think it is a bad habit, although you probably do not mean it. What do they have in common besides they were allies?
Did you know, for example, that H. Tojo helped Europe-fled Jews escape through Manchuria when he was Chief-of-Staff of Kanto Army in Manchuria? Did you know that Nanjing is just a hoax? If you consider yourself pro-Japanese or even a fair person, you might want to think twice before carelessly forcing bad karma on the Japanese (past, now, and future generations). I think the time is ripe for looking back at history objectively without judgments.
Many Japanese still remember that glorious day ... February 15, 1942. I am sure those in Yasukuni are still praying for the prosperity of Singapore!

As a Singaporean, I like modern Japanese culture of politeness and minimalistic decor in all their design, and clean and hygienic preparation of food (think of sushi and sashimi). This is unfortunately not so anymore ever since I have recently read about their wish to revise their constitution and their voting in the new PM Abe whom his grandfather is actually a WW2 criminal. No wonder he insist on visiting the Shrine (cant remember the name) which honors Japan's war criminals together with innocent fallen soldiers. Oh, Japan, why why, cant you learn from the Germans? Cut the philosopical ties with your past war criminals, and also that stupid "Bushido" creed, else, your present innocent generation will inevitably "pay" the price of bad karma to those that do not want to atone for past evil.

ps. For those innocent (present generation) Japanese's sake, teach them the truth in their school textbooks about what their previous generation did. Do not deny what the previous generation did. Afterall, it isnt their own crime, provided they acknowledge the truth of the past, and show some sincerity in feeling remorse. Then the past will be past, else others will always have this fear of your re-militarisation.

(like many others who won, mr abe had two or three prime ministers in his family).

--- So that's another problem with Japan: Too many princelings, causing inbreding in political thinking at the expenses of ordinary Japanese people. These politicians are accustomed to play servant to the US military stationed in Japan, like their fathers or grandfathers did.

I wouldn't let any misguided sense of familial obligation stop me from wanting to get at the truth, personally, although shock, anger and denial would probably be the first responses. Besides, there have been plenty of IJA veterans who have admitted to what they did. How do you feel about them?

"Understanding of history should be based on the facts. Not what you believe might have happened because people say so ..."

It seems, if anything can be inferred about not wanting to even acknowledge the possibility that your grandfathers might not have been the noble patriotic heroes you would like to think they are, your understanding of history is based on what you would prefer to believe. After all, I'm not sure where you get your facts from, although I'm guessing they're Japanese and right-wing, but you are very quick to denounce as hoaxes any other facts that you find unpleasant.