"I have ruled it out," Mrs. Clinton says of a presidential bid, in the living room of her State Department office. "It's important for me to step off this incredibly high wire I've been on," she says, "to take stock of the rest of my life."

Nevertheless, there is widespread assumption within the party that she can be persuaded to run. And in language that Democrats might perceive as an opening, Mrs. Clinton adds: "I will always want to be in service to my country."

If you think the Hillary Clinton-in-2016 guessing game is a little out of hand now, just wait til Nov. 7.