Hot: STD Space Weather Course
This is an excellent self-study course on Space Weather and Radio Propagation. This is a very in-depth and rich course that will equip you with the knowledge you need for understanding Space Weather, the ionosphere, how radio signals propagate via the ionosphere, and much more. Check it out!

Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.

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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.

Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.

Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.

If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:

Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges

At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:

Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)

The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7USNW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications

More about Background X-rays

The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.

Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.

If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.

Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.

Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic ActivityCovering the period: 01 - 07 December 2014

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels with the majority of activity occurring from Region 2222 (S19, L=085, class/area Ekc/770 on 04 December). Region 2222 produced a total of 54 C-flares and 5 M-flares since it began its transit on the visible disk on 26 November. The largest flares of the period were an M1/1n at 01/0641 UTC, an M1/1n at 04/0810 UTC, a long duration M6 at 04/1825 UTC, an M1 at 04/1941 UTC, and another M1 at 05/1225 UTC. Region 2222 continued to be in a growth phase through 04 December, when it began to decay. By the end of the period, the region was a large Hkx/alpha group with approximately 640 millionths of area. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal levels on 02 December, moderate levels on 01 and 03-06 December, and reached high levels on 07 December. Maximum flux values of 2,030 pfu were observed at 07/1755 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind parameters measured at the ACE satellite were indicative of two negative polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS). The first began just after midday on 01 December. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from approximately 430 km/s to near 630 km/s while total field reached a peak of around 14 nT. Solar wind speed declined by 03 December, but remained enhanced around 400 km/s to 550 km/s through the majority of the period. By early on 06 December, total field increased to a maximum of 25 nT along with an increase in density as a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) began to influence the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed showed an increase late on 06 December and through 07 December to a maximum around 800 km/s as a southern polar coronal hole extension became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 02-03 and 05 December, quiet to active levels on 01, 04, and 06 December, and unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) on 07 December.

Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.

(Click to see actual size)

Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)

Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:

SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.

CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).

(Click to see actual size)

What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:

Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Solar activity is low. NOAA AR 2390, which is rotating over the west limb, produced a C1.5 flare peaking at 20:05 UT on August 1. No large flares expected. The Earth is still under the influence of a fast speed solar wind stream emanating from a coronal hole. Solar wind speeds are around 600 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field magnitudes of 5 nT. Active conditions were observed overnight and more active periods can be expected in the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 054, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)

Solar Forecast:

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

Geomagnetic Forecast:

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 December - 03 January 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor to Moderate) for the forecast period as region 2222 continues to rotate off the visible disk as well as the return of old Region 2209 (S13, L=251) on 08 December.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels from 08-22 and again on 03 January due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) on 08 December and 03 January due to CIR/CH HSS activity. Unsettled, with possible active, levels are expected on 09, 12-15, 17-20, 28-29 December due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active periods are expected from 31 December through 02 January due to possible recurrent extended periods of negative Bz as part of a variable current sheet.

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch (STD) is a world-leader in space weather forecasting services, as was demonstrated in late October and early November 2003 (Oler, C., "Prediction Performance of Space Weather Forecast Centers during the Extreme Space Weather Events of October and November 2003," published in the peer-reviewed scientific journal "Space Weather" by the American Geophysical Union in 2004). A copy of this paper is available here.

STD expertise is used to provide high-quality space weather forecast services to many electrical power companies across North America, guidance to spacecraft operators and consultation to many others.

STD has developed a special space weather course designed to teach individuals without any background how to predict space weather (see below). The STD Space Weather Course was the recipient of the Study-Web Academic Excellence award.

The course is available on-line as a small group of downloadable Adobe Acrobat Reader documents comprising over 630 pages of printed material (for sample pages, click here). You can therefore choose to study the material on your computer or print it out for study.

The course, if you choose the option, also includes the STD's powerful and popular Proplab-Pro HF Radio Propagation Laboratory software! All software products are optional elaborate tools that will contribute to your application of the knowledge obtained through this course.

NOTE: The certificate is no longer being offered. The course, never-the-less, still provides you with a very well-rounded knowledge base with which you can understand and work with space weather and radio propagation data.

Purchasing the Course

Please choose one of the following course packages.

Purchase: The course alone (no software), delivered over the Internet.

Now: $79.99 - normally $250 USD

Pay Online by clicking the PayPal button:
Note: This is only the course - no software. You are paying for the knowledge and content.

Pay Online by clicking the PayPal button:
Note: You are paying for the knowledge and content of this course, PLUS GETTING THE SOFTWARE, TOO!

NOTE: After you finish ordering, through PayPal, please allow me time to process your order. I am not always in front of my computer, so it may take a while for me to finish the processing of your order. I shall e-mail you the moment I have processed the order, and will give you specific directions on how to download the Course file(s). PLEASE BE PATIENT WITH ME!

A list of the topics covered in this home-study course include:

The Sun

Basics of the Sun

Sunspots

Types of Sunspots

Sunspot Magnetic Fields

Solar Radiation and Radio Emissions

Solar Cycles

Techniques for Modelling Solar Cycles

Sources of Information and Imagery

Interplanetary Space

The Solar Wind

Magnetic Fields

Heliospheric Current Sheet

Solar Sector Structures

The Earth

Magnetosphere

The quiet magnetosphere

The disturbed magnetosphere

Understanding Magnetic Indices

Magnetic Storms

Sudden Storm Commencements (SSCs)

Gradual Storm Commencements

Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs)

Effects on Electrical Hydro Systems

Effects on Other Long Conductors

Ionosphere

Formation of Ionospheric Layers

Factors Affecting Ionospheric Layers

Solar Disturbances

Transient Solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)

Types and Structures of Coronal Mass Ejections

Understanding the Importance of CME Structures

Inferring CME Structures from Available Solar Data

Coronal Mass Ejection Detection Methods

Using IMPACT (software) to Aid in CME Disturbance Predictions

Solar Cycle Dependencies

Solar Flares

Basic Nature of Flares

Types of Flares

Flare Rating Systems

Significance of Proton Flares

Ground Level Events (GLEs)

Fast Transit Events

Interpreting Magnetograms

Determining Magnetic Shear and Flare Susceptability

Solar Flare (and Proton Flare) Prediction Techniques

Solar Flare Related Coronal Mass Ejection Prediction Techniques

Sources of Solar Flare Information

Solar Coronal Holes

Coronal Hole Basics

Recurrence

Solar Cycle Correlations

Associations with Near-Relativistic Electrons

Coronal Hole Related Disturbance Prediction Techniques

Filament Eruptions

Filaments and Prominences

Eruptive and Non-Eruptive Activity

Filament-Associated Coronal Mass Ejections

Filament-Related Disturbance Prediction Techniques

Auroral Activity

Basic Theory of the Northern/Southern Lights

Behavioral Characteristics of the Auroral Ovals

Sensitivity to Solar Disturbances

Affects on Satellite Health and Radio Communications

Mathematical Models of the Auroral Zones

Auroral Activity Prediction Techniques

Information Sources

Conditions Affecting Satellite Health

Atmospheric Drag

Surface Charging Anomalies

Deep Dialectric Charging Anomalies

Interplanetary Shocks

Magnetopause Crossings

Postulated Sun/Earth Climate Connections

Possible Long-Term Climatic Trends

Rainfall

Temperatures

Atmospheric Pressure

Storm Tracks

Ozone Correlations

Possible Short-Term Meteorological Trends

Pressure and Winds

Lightning

Storm Systems

Ozone Responses

Radio Propagation

Basic Theory (Non-Technical)

Characteristics and Components of Radio Signals

Understanding Plasmas

Importance of Electron Collisions

Appleton/Hartree Contributions

Signal Polarization and Coupling

Ionospheric Absorption

Deviative Absorption

Non-Deviative Absorption

Fading

Multipathing

Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances

Solar Related Disturbances

Structure of the Ionosphere

Ionospheric Layers

Importance of Sporadic-E

Effects of Spread-F

Solar-Cycle Dependencies

Models of the Ionosphere

Simple Mathematical Models

Numerical Maps

CCIR

URSI

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)

Others

Probing the Ionosphere

Probing Techniques

Probing Instruments

Sources of Ionosonde Information

Basic Ray-Tracing Concepts

Ordinary vs Extraordinary Signals

Becoming Familiar with Ray-Tracing Software

Ray-Tracing in Three-Dimensions

Ray-Tracing Software Considerations

Preparing for 3D Ray-Tracings

Performing 3D Ray-Tracings

Studying 3D Ray-Tracing Results

Vertical Radio Signal Propagation

Signal Reflection Behavior

Critical Frequencies

Ray-Tracing Vertically-Incident Signals

Oblique Radio Signal Propagation

Signal Refraction/Reflection Characteristics

Effects of Geomagnetic Activity

Effects of Solar Activity

Ray-Tracing Obliquely Incident Radio Signals

Determination of Maximum Usable Frequencies

Simple Empirical Methods

Ray-Tracing Techniques

Effects of Sporadic-E

Non-Great-Circle (NGC) Propagation

Responsible Conditions

Compensation Methods

Ray-Tracing Techniques to Analyze NGC Propagation

Chordal-Hop and Inter-Layer Ducting Propagation

Advantages and Disadvantages

Analysis using Ray-Tracing Techniques

Searching for and Exploiting Exotic Propagation Paths

Properties of Exotic Paths

Searching for Exotic Paths using 3D Ray-Tracing Techniques

Determining the Most Reliable Exotic Radio Paths

Ionospheric Disturbances

Solar Related Disturbances

Solar Flares and Related Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal Holes and High Speed Solar Wind Streams

Filament Related Coronal Mass Ejections

Impact of Flare Related Radio Noise Bursts

Short Wave Fadeouts

Sudden Phase Anomalies

Sudden Frequency Deviations

Devastating Effects of Polar Cap Absorption

Disturbances and their Effects on Satellite Communications

Radio Propagation Prediction Methods

Short-Term Forecasting Techniques

Medium-Term Forecasting Techniques

Long-Term Forecasting Techniques

Sources of Forecasting Information

Applied Forecasting Techniques

Climatology

Pattern Recognition

Compiling Necessary Information

Exploiting Databases

Computer Related Aids

Studying Real-Life Examples

Developing Experience and "Intuition"

Field Experience

The STD SW Course presents you with some specific historic real-life scenarios. Using the information and techniques studied in this course, you are asked to develop your own space-weather and radio-propagation predictions. The actual real-life impacts are then studied and compared with your forecasts.

The Course presents you with several hypothetical (possible future) examples and ask you to develop your own forecasts.

Course Completed

NOTE: THE CERTIFICATE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE...

Check out these books on Radio Propagation:

+ The New Shortwave Propagation Handbook (Paperback) - by George Jacobs, Theodore J. Cohen, R. B. Rose. The NEW Shortwave Progagation Handbook may well be the only book you'll need on the subject of ionospheric propagation! It is a "must read" for Radio Amateurs, Shortwave Listeners, and radio communicators of any type who need to make the most productive use of the radio spectrum, regardless of the time of day, the season of the year, or the state of the sunspot cycle. It will become your ever-present companion a the operating table as you master the art of shortwave radio progagation.

+ How Radio Signals Work (Paperback) - by Jim Sinclair. This book provides a basic understanding of the way radio signals work-without becoming bogged down with the technicalities. It covers all kinds of radio signal types--including mobile communications, short-wave, satellite, and microwave. No detailed knowledge of electronics or mathematics is required. A-Z coverage of radio signals including satellites, mobile communications, and short-wave radio. No math or electronics background necessary.

+ Introduction to RF Propagation (Hardcover) - by John S. Seybold. This book provides readers with a solid understanding of the concepts involved in the propagation of electromagnetic waves and of the commonly used modeling techniques. While many books cover RF propagation, most are geared to cellular telephone systems and, therefore, are limited in scope. This title is comprehensive-it treats the growing number of wireless applications that range well beyond the mobile telecommunications industry, including radar and satellite communications.

Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content isCopyright, 2015, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.