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Yavapai County Attorney Sheila Polk doesn't have to accept an administrative law judge's decision finding insufficient evidence that Attorney General Tom Horne illegally coordinated with an independent expenditure committee.

But she should. The case should be dropped.

The circumstantial case against Horne is substantial. Horne clearly knew about the existence of the independent expenditure campaign and Kathleen Winn's leadership of it. He knew what the campaign expected to receive from a national group and that it had fallen $100,000 short. And Horne and Winn had extensive conversations contemporaneously with Winn finalizing the content of an ad with the campaign's political consultant.

Polk, and Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery before her, weren't doing an Andy Thomas in filing civil charges against Horne and Winn.

But the case is entirely circumstantial. There is no record of what Horne and Winn were discussing. They say they were discussing a real estate deal. The campaign treasurer says he was the one who discussed the content of the ad with Winn.

Now, Winn's current account doesn't jibe with the pronouns and language she used in email correspondence with the consultant that day. Her emails report a more robust discussion with more powerful figures than she now says took place. Perhaps she's now covering up. Perhaps at the time she was simply loose with pronouns and generous with hyperbole in hastily written emails.

In the final analysis, there is no hard evidence to contradict Horne and Winn's story that they were discussing a real estate transaction. And the testimony of others involved in the production of the ad is compatible with it being done without Horne's input.

Given the existence of a plausible alternative and no hard evidence to contradict it, hard to argue with the conclusion of Judge Tammy Eigenheer that the preponderance of the evidence doesn't support a civil fine of at least $400,000.

This case has a squirrelly procedural process. Polk is not bound by the judge's decision. She could decide that Eigenheer didn't give enough weight to the inconsistency between Winn's current account and the emails she sent at the time and impose the fine anyway. There are due process and justice problems with doing that, however.

If Polk imposes the fine anyway, Horne and Winn could appeal to Superior Court. But no one knows what that appeal would consist of, how thorough the review would be, or what legal standard would be used to determine whether to uphold the fine. It's possible that Horne and Winn would be fined even though the only judge to give the matter comprehensive and independent consideration thought they shouldn't be.

Eigenheer's decision is competent and thorough. If Polk rejects it, she risks making herself, as a practical matter, both prosecutor and judge in the case. And that would not be justice.

If Eigenheer's decision is the final legal word, Horne will use it politically as an all-purpose answer to questions as to whether he is ethically suited to be attorney general. And given the superficial level at which the public pays attention to campaign rhetoric, it might be quite effective for him.

It shouldn't be. Even if you buy Horne's story entirely, that his extensive conversations with Winn that day were solely about his real estate transaction, Horne's conduct raises substantial questions about his ethics and his judgment.

Horne knew Winn was conducting an independent expenditure campaign on his behalf. He knew that the committee had raised substantial money. He knew that the election was two weeks away. So, he knew that Winn would be engaged in decision-making about what to do with the money.

A politician with a strong ethical compass would have steered clear of any substantive conversations with Winn during this period. And a politician of sound judgment would assume that any substantive conversations with Winn on any matter during this period might become public and would look incriminating if they did.

In a way, even if his dealings with Winn were entirely innocent, Horne has gotten what he deserved.