Theoretically, the armed incidents of the past few months - when Albanian fighters were responsible for a rising
level of violence in Serbia's Presevo valley, in northern Kosovo, and in north-western Macedonia - are unrelated.

Ethnic Albanian rebels want Kosovo status clarified

In practice, however, all these incidents are
the product of the same sense of frustration among ethnic Albanians about
their nebulous legal status, coupled with their growing fear that, for the
third time in a century, the West is about to sacrifice their interests in
order to accommodate the Serbs.

Nato's military intervention in Kosovo was and remains contradictory.

The
Alliance repeatedly claimed that it was not fighting on behalf of the
Albanians, despite the fact that the only beneficiaries of the 1999
operation were the Albanians.

The war was also
supposed to protect the multi-ethnic character of Kosovo, but Nato was
ultimately unable to prevent the exodus of hundreds of thousands of ethnic
Serbs and Roma from the province.

They [ethnic Albanians] guessed correctly Kosovo would be a pure Albanian territory regardless
of the West's love for "multi-ethnicity"

Finally, the Alliance remained committed
to the maintenance of Yugoslav sovereignty over Kosovo, although no Western
leader ever specified how the province could ever be returned to Belgrade's
rule if the majority of its population remained against this idea.

The
ethnic Albanians of the province were initially unperturbed by such
contradictions.

But they did not reckon with two surprises - a political
change in Belgrade, their main enemy, accompanied by one in Washington,
hitherto their chief ally.

The overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic's regime in Yugoslavia
allowed the West to normalise relations with the country; the return of
Kosovo to Yugoslav sovereignty, until recently just a theoretical
question, suddenly looked perfectly possible.

The change in Washington came as a surprise

And the election of a new US
administration, ostensibly committed to a withdrawal of US troops from
Kosovo, merely added to the Albanians' sense of unease.

Despite the Western rush to re-establish relations with
Belgrade, the idea that Kosovo will be forced to return to Yugoslav
control remains far-fetched.

And statements by President Bush's close
advisers, suggesting the imminent withdrawal of US troops from the
province, should not be taken too seriously either.

This is the political background to the current wave of
violence.

But, instead of bending to these pressures, Nato has decided to teach the
Albanian guerrillas a lesson - that they cannot achieve border changes through
terrorist attacks.

Nato's quandary

Although the moves carry high risks, they also provide new political
opportunities.

Vulnerable and poor, Macedonia's independence was contested
by many of the country's neighbours.

The Yugoslav military is co-operating with Nato

The Greeks, who originally refused to
recognise the republic, are now among Macedonia's biggest supporters.

And
the Bulgarians, who had their own historic disputes with Macedonia, are
also offering support.

Just as significantly, the relationship between
Yugoslavia and the West have been revamped as a result of this
confrontation.

The Yugoslav military is yet again co-operating with Nato,
while the government in Belgrade has put forward sensible political
proposals for the autonomy of its ethnic Albanians.

In the long run, however, Nato remains in a bind.

Even if Western
governments were willing to grant Kosovo its independence, this would
require a change in the terms of the UN mandate, something
which both the Russians and the Chinese are sure to veto.

Nor can Nato
contemplate withdrawal from the region.

So the Alliance is stuck in an
unwinnable position, seeking to defend the Albanians' entitlement to govern
themselves, but denying them the right to be completely self-governing.

The
current crisis is containable. But the reasons for the Albanians'
frustrations will remain, and will fuel further violence.

Jonathan Eyal is Director of Studies at the Royal United Services Institute, London