Virginia forward Akil Mitchell, guard Jontel Evans and guard Joe Harris celebrate during the first half of a game against the Boston College Eagles at Silvio O. Conte Forum. / Mark L. Baer, USA TODAY Sports

by Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports

by Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports

One undeniable truth that should be remembered over the next few weeks is the NCAA tournament selection committee will pick 37 at-large teams for its event.

Regardless of how lousy borderline teams perform, someone has to fill the field. There won't be a 68-team event if there aren't enough programs with shiny résumés.

The flip side of that is the edge of the field - the oft-described "soft bubble" - is probably going to firm up in the coming days.

To date, it's been assumed a conference's leader in the regular season will collect a bid. There's not really a more sensible way to anoint a placeholder for the 31 automatic qualifiers the committee is handed.

But that's what they are: placeholders. And when upsets start to snarl conference tournaments and teams come out of nowhere to snatch bids, things will get quite perilous for programs jostling for position.

With just a couple upsets, a team safely in the field could find itself in a play-in game. A team in a play-in game might suddenly be just outside the tournament. And a quintessential bubble team vying for the 37th and final at-large slot could easily find itself several slots from playing in in the 68-team field.

A team like Villanova or Virginia might find itself in the field at the moment. There's no guarantee even with a couple more victories it would remain that way in two weeks.

On the hot seat: Baylor

The Bears easily have the most to lose - and not a whole lot to gain - during Monday's limited schedule. A loss to Texas, even in Austin, would be devastating to Baylor's NCAA hopes.

Not that they're all that great to begin with.

Baylor played a stout non-conference schedule and collected a January victory over Oklahoma State. And the Bears beat Kentucky, though that just doesn't mean as much as it normally does.

Few teams face a more critical week than Baylor, which follows its trip to Texas with a home game against Kansas. Win both and watch as fellow bubblers crumble (as they pretty reliably have the last week or so), and the Bears might not enter the Big 12 tournament needing to win it all.

Otherwise, it's evident Baylor has played its way into a bad spot while dropping seven of 10. Fall to the Longhorns and things will get even worse.

Biggest résumé stain:

Wisconsin was charging up the at-large board after winning six of seven, but that run was halted with a 13-point loss at Purdue.

This isn't a crushing development for the Badgers, who still have Michigan State on the road and the Big Ten tournament to come, and it doesn't make them any less of a potential headache in the postseason. But it makes the path to a No. 4 seed much more difficult than it otherwise would have been.

Bubble winners:

Teams that took a step forward, however modest, on Sunday...

N.C. State: The Wolfpack is in no danger of missing the tournament, but they could easily find themselves in a dreaded 8-9 game (with a pending date with a No. 1 seed in the round of 32). A triumph at Georgia Tech can only help so much, but it should still provide a bit of a boost

Stanford: The Cardinal is a decided at-large longshot, but they deserve credit for continuing to handle the middling teams on their schedule. Stanford blasted Utah at Maples Pavilion to improve to 17-13.

Washington: A 1-7 stretch over four weeks almost certainly doomed the Huskies to an NCAA tournament miss, but they have won three of four after defeating Washington State. The Los Angeles schools come to Seattle this week as the regular season concludes.

Bubble losers:

Teams that took a step back Sunday...

Villanova: An overtime loss at Pittsburgh is still a loss for the Wildcats, who would have found themselves in fairly solid shape with a road victory over a team certain to land in the top half of the bracket.

Virginia: The Cavaliers have seven top-100 wins and seven losses to teams outside the top 100 after falling by a point at Boston College. It's anyone's guess how Tony Bennett's bunch is treated by the committee, especially since the Hoos appear dead-set against constructing an extended winning or losing streak down the stretch.

Résumé worth dissecting: Villanova

The Wildcats are clinging to a spot in the projected field, but their wiggle room is basically gone after losing in overtime at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Between bid thieves and other borderline teams playing their way into the field, Villanova is going to have to do something to distinguish itself in the final two weeks. They've been stout at home, and a visit from Georgetown offers a fine opportunity. But a loss to an also-ran in their Big East tournament opener would probably relegate the Wildcats to the NIT, regardless of the regular season finale.

NIT-bound (unless it wins its conference tournament): Florida State

The defending ACC tournament champs continued their entirely unremarkable season Sunday with a 21-point loss at North Carolina. The Seminoles (15-14) have not won consecutive games since Jan. 5-9 and can do no better than sixth place in the ACC.

Florida State's profile long ago was soiled with losses to Auburn, Mercer and South Alabama, and is now 0-7 against the top five teams in the conference. Two more of those games --- visits from Virginia and N.C. State --- will complete the regular season for the Seminoles.

On deck:

Cincinnati at Louisville (7, ESPN): The Bearcats had dropped five of six games before escaping with a five-point win against Connecticut on Saturday. They probably won't be vulnerable to missing the tournament but could extinguish any doubt by knocking off the surging Cardinals.

Texas Tech at Kansas (7, ESPNU): The Jayhawks continue their chase for a No. 1 seed when they face the Red Raiders, who just snapped a nine-game losing streak with Saturday's win against Texas Christian.

Baylor at Texas (9, ESPN): This game looked a lot better for TV purposes before the season. Now, Texas (13-16) is headed for a losing season and Baylor (17-12) can ill-afford a loss if it wants to remain in the hunt for an at-large bid.

Stat of the day:

The Big Ten's seven projected NCAA tournament teams (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin) are a combined 47-11 at home in conference play, including 25-2 against the conference's bottom five teams. One of those rare losses to a struggling team came Sunday when Wisconsin fell to Purdue.

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About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' bracket/bubble specialist for the 2013 NCAA tournament. He has covered college sports and projected the Big Dance field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse