A UK-based long range weather forecaster has issued a severe winter weather warning for 2011-2012. The advisory has been issued following one of the coldest winters experienced in Ireland and Britain more than 45 years.James Madden from weather organisation Exacta Weather correctly predicted the harsh conditions experienced over the last two years, and is once again forecasting record breaking snowfall and freezing temperatures during November, December and January.One of Madden’s primary methods of analysing long range weather conditions is his analysis of solar cycles. Last week Irish Weather Online carried a story from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) stating that a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles are signs that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years.Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results: “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.National newspapers, including the Irish Independent and Irish Times, subsequently carried stories warning that a decrease in solar activity will bring Arctic Winters to Ireland and Britain over the coming decades.Commenting on the solar cycle, James Madden said: “Periods of low solar activity at present and what we have seen in recent years influence the Earth’s atmosphere by allowing the stratosphere to cool. This has a somewhat more profound effect over Northern Europe and the UK in terms of colder and snowier winters, due to jet stream patterns that block warm air from reaching us and create more moisture.”“Although sunspot activity has increased somewhat this year and there has been an increase in solar flare activity, the activity is minuscule in comparison to what it should be like during a solar maximum and in terms of frequency. Periods of low solar activity such as this have future repercussions of low solar activity in future cycles and produce extra cloud cover that reflects sunlight with a cooling influence on Earth. The lack of major sunspots and solar flares clearly indicate a slower conveyor belt within the sun. We are now in a very weak solar maximum and my observations indicate that the next solar cycle will also be weak”, he added.Commenting on La Nina and the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift and their effect on our weather, Mr. Madden stated: “It is visible to see from recent NOAA satellite images that the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift has drastically altered within the last few years. The Gulf Stream is basically a huge volume of heated water that brings warmth to the UK in terms of a mild atmosphere. This softens the climate we experience for the latitude we lie on. For example let’s take Newfoundland who lie on a similar latitude to the UK, yet they experience much harsher winters as they do not benefit from this valuable heat source.“La Niña is the cooling of the Pacific Ocean near the equator and influences changes to atmospheric pressure and wind changes. In terms of the UK this makes the jet streams in the North Atlantic stronger and therefore offers more precipitation in the form of widespread heavy snowfall during below average temperatures as cold easterlies dominate”, he explained.Mr. Madden also said that the dust and ash particles released by the recent volcanic eruption in Iceland and Chile would also contribute to cooling down of global temperatures. He continued: “Converted sulphur dioxide emissions from volcanic eruptions can also cause sunlight reflection in the atmosphere. “He said he expected the 2011-2012 winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November and December was in 2010 for the vast majority of the coming winter.“It will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills and raising awareness amongst the most vulnerable and elderly people of society”, Mr. Madden concluded

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I really hope this is true, I love these good winters! PS: (As anyone notice some of trees have already got a bit brown in the summer , it that sigh of early winter?)

Re: Another Severe Weather Warning Issued For Winter 2011-12 UK

A long range weather forecaster is predicting an early start to winter 2011-2012 for many regions of the United Kingdom and Ireland. James Madden of Exacta Weather says heavy snowfalls are likely in places as soon as late October and early November.

Snow for Halloween! , , this could year that it Snows on Halloween and Xmas day (To best days of the year)

Re: Another Severe Weather Warning Issued For Winter 2011-12 UK

UK TO FACE 3RD STRAIGHT WINTER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY, CRIPPLING SNOW AND SEVERE COLD, WORST OF WINTER CONTINENTWIDE TO BE CENTRED OVER SCANDINAVIA

UK WINTER HIGHLIGHTS

DECEMBER PERIOD BETWEEN DECEMBER 15-20TH HERALDS THE ONSET OF INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND COLDER WEATHER FROM OFF THE CONTINENT

The past two winters have seen heavy snow followed by harsh cold prior to Christmas with 2009 seeing Pre-Christmas travel chaos.

Unfortunately, I can see a repeat of both heavy, widespread snow and cold leading up to Christmas 2011 as a building Arctic air mass fills Scandinavia with this process commencing around the start of December.

As December progresses after a relatively mild, wet and unsettled start, like in 2009, I am most concerned about the period around the 15th through 20th as I believe we'll start to see the expanding cold over Norway and Sweden start to migrate westwards as a Greenland Block sets up.

With the continued influence from Atlantic weather systems and the approach of Arctic or certainly colder air from off the continent sets up a wild battleground in which heavy rain turns to heavy snow.

A WHITE CHRISTMAS LOOKS LIKELY FOR LARGE PARTS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM

Given my expectations with the arrival of cold air from Scandinavia combined with the continued active Atlantic-Driven pattern we've been seeing through October, I feel that it's highly possible that the collision between moist maritime air with Polar/Arctic air masses coming out of Scandinavia will result in widespread snowfall and coverage across most of the UK and even Ireland by December 25 and snowfalls may continue in the week leading up to New Year, if not, bitter cold will then dominate.

JANUARY The tough later part of December will set the stage for what may be a severe first 10 to 15 days of January as a strong NEGATIVE NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation & AO (Arctic Oscillation) firmly establishes itself with deep troughs filled with increasingly bitter Arctic air centred from the UK eastwards to Germany.

Bitterly cold Arctic air may keep us shivering from around New Year through the early part of January once the Atlantic door is shut and Arctic High Pressure settles in. High pressure brings very sunny days, lighter winds but with widespread and possibly deep snow cover, the coldest days and nights of winter will settle in. Forecast Highs & Lows for a Selection of UK Towns and Cities

Inverness High: -4 to -8C Low: -10 to -18C

Glasgow High: -4 to -8C Low: -12 to -20C

Edinburgh High: -4 to -8C Low: -12 to -20C

M'chester High: -3 to -6C Low: -9 to -18C

Birm'ham High: -3 to -6C Low: -8 to -17C

London High: -2 to -4C Low: -7 to -12C

I believe it's possible that during the period of harshest cold, we may see large swaths of of the UK outside of towns and cities which struggle to see highs much warmer than -6 to -10C and nights beneath clear skies, light winds, widespread snowcover and a bitter Arctic air mass in place, lows may dip to -20C or colder as far south as the outer edges of London.

Such areas of Bensen, Oxfordshire, Shap, Cumbria and a selection of Highland cold hallows, we may see lows dip to between -21 and -25C and a possible 2 or two nights taking a run at the UK record of -27C which was recorded at both Altnaharra, Sutherland and Braemar, Aberdeenshire.

After a brutal first two weeks of January throughout the UK and Ireland, I believe we will see the easing of the truly severe cold as the Greenland block breaks down and the core of cold begins to migrate east towards eastern Europe. Milder Atlantic air will allow us to recover but by then, the damage will be done as many bodies of water including the Clyde, parts of the Forth, Loch Lomond as well as countless lakes and rivers across England and Wales as well as Ireland will be frozen. Coastal harbours, bays and 1-2 mile stretches of sea may see icing. Burst pipes will also become a big problem once again.

FEBRUARY & MARCH

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.