Just before Peyton Manning bid farewell to the Indianapolis Colts (and vice versa), his old coach, Tony Dungy, was touting the 49ers as an ideal suitor for the four-time league MVP.

“You put Peyton Manning in that offense and people are going to be scared to play them,” Dungy told on the NFL Network. “There are other teams that fit that same feel, but San Francisco comes to the top of my mind.”

Before we fuel what I consider long-shot speculation, I made a formal interview request for 49ers general manager Trent Baalke. Purpose: to ask about any interest in Manning (available to sign ASAP) as well as reports that the 49ers have an offer on the table to Alex Smith. A team spokesman gave this formal response: “At this time, we do not have any information to share regarding these topics.”

There is no hotter topic in the NFL — perhaps in the history of NFL free agency — than Manning’s next destination.

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The 49ers are a contender in many circles because:

a:) they were an overtime defeat away from reaching the Super Bowl, and Manning would love a second Super Bowl ring;

b:) Alex Smith is unsigned and still battling for respect, despite a heroic playoff win over New Orleans;

c:) the 49ers are thought to have dominant defenses and special teams and are just a quarterback (and a couple wide receivers, kick/punt returner, guard, etc.) away from being complete.

d:) Manning replaced Jim Harbaugh in Indianapolis in 1998, and this would somehow complete the great circle of NFL life.

Personally, I don’t see Manning coming to the 49ers, and not just because former teammate Marshall Faulk said on the NFL Network that Manning won’t join a NFC team because it would eliminate the potential to encounter his brother Eli in the Super Bowl.

If Alex Smith could fulfill the 49ers’ offensive needs and get them so close to a Super Bowl, do you really want to risk that team chemistry and recipe for success on a to-be 36-year-old quarterback who’s had at least three neck surgeries in the past year?

Back to Dungy, who’s a NBC analyst and served as the Colts’ coach in 2006 when Manning won his only Super Bowl.

“What Peyton does is spread the field out, make decisions and look at defenses. You have to incorporate some of that in there,” Dungy said of Manning’s next team. “You can’t be in a system where you go to the line of system and run the play that we call. you wouldn’t be taking advantage of what he does best.

“But by the same token, you don’ thave to structure your offense like it’s the same as the Colts’. He’s played in Pro Bowls and other people’s offense and played at a high level.

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“There are some pretty good fits out there, but it’s going to be a unique situation. You have to feel like you’re pretty close to the Super Bowl. You have to feel you have some pretty good offensive weaponary in place and that you need a quarterback. Not every team fits that mold.

“I saw Joe Montana and what his impact was with the Chiefs when he got there and how he elevated everyone around him … Peyton Manning could do the same thing to somebody who feels like they’re close.

So where is Manning headed (other than back to South Florida, where he has an offseason home — and the odds-on favorite suitor in the Miami Dolphins)?

“I can’t speak for Peyton. There are a number of teams out there,” Dungy said. “I look at San Francisco and what they did and whether they’ve made that commitment to Alex Smith yet, I don’t know. I don’t know where they stand.

“But that’s a team that has a great defense, and has some young receivers, and a very good tight end and a good back. You put Peyton Manning in that offense and people are going to be scared to play them. There are other teams that fit that same feel, but San Francisco comes to the top of my mind.”

Tom Condon, the agent for both Manning and Smith, did not immediately return a request for comment.

Cam Inman

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The 49ers dont want Peyton Manning,They already have the great Alex Smith!

Lance Newberry

His age, his injury issues and the fact that a few teams that are desperate for a publicity splash as much as a need for a better QB will be offering him a TON of dough and a long term deal (Miami, Jets, Washington) make it a long-shot for the 49ers, even if they’re interested.

There is no question that if Manning is healthy and can rotate his head & throw the ball like he could before he would be a huge upgrade and he would bring a lot to the 49ers, but even if healthy the risk is very high for a guy his age & with that type of injury baggage, and I think even if they’re interested they’ll get out-bid, unless he is willing to take a lesser deal and shorter years to go to the 49ers. And I don’t see that happening.

I’d like the idea much more if Alex was also on the team, a steady backup in place in case it doesn’t go well, but it would be one or the other, not both, and Smith is going to be much cheaper.

Ultimately I just don’t think it fits the Harbaugh/Baalke steady, conservative style, but it’s still hard to know exactly what their style really is. It will have to be tempting, if he’s healthy.

If he’s healthy get him if you can 49ers, but don’t be stupid about it.

Ghost of Bill Walsh

No one is talking about Josh Johnson, JH prodigal son!

Dominic

Come on San Francisco, stop being so damn stubborn and go get this once in a lifetime QB. Alex is not that guy! Enough already!

Jim49er

This isn’t flag football. Just say NO manning. colts have the inside scoop on his health, and let him go. now they are going to be a no-thing team for quite a while without him, and they still chose to let him go. Thanks, but no thanks.

3rdKing

Niners better make damn sure the seahawks or cardinals don’t get him. A tolling death knoll.

Smith was as good as he ever was gonna get and that ain’t good enough to win a superbowl. Dump Smith and take a chance on Peyton. If he’s healed he will be awsome! If he gets injured we have have a great back up QB Tolzien who will eventually be one of the greats form what I’ve seen. Bet big to win big!

Liquidman

How many Superbowls has Dungy and Rice have between them? And they both say to go for Peyton. Good enough for me.

whocares

Fix the OL and get a good receiver.
That way FG can still run for 100 yards and AS can rely less on his TE’s while MC can settle in as the second WR.
As JR said, MC gets no separation.

Niners in 2012

Do it.

latopia

‘If Alex Smith could fulfill the 49ers’ offensive needs and get them so close to a Super Bowl, do you really want to risk that team chemistry and recipe for success on a to-be 36-year-old quarterback who’s had at least three neck surgeries in the past year?”

—

Exactly.

toby

back to #9 yes yes yes take the chance……..do you want the 49ers to go to the super bowl or the usual stay at home bowl?…..so close with smith gets you to the stay at home bowl (as usual)……manning will get them to the super bowl! its not rocket science.

Tied Eli Manning in the regular season to lead the league in 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives

One of the LOWEST poor-throw percentages in the league, which tied Smith with Roethlisberger & Ryan, which bettered Rodgers, Brady, Schaub, Cutler & Bradford, which ONLY trailed Brees — who stood tall above all.

THE lowest pick-rate in the league among all starters

Had to endure one of HIGHEST drop rates among RBs, WRs, TEs with NO 9er player except VD reaching a catch-rate of 70%

Yeah, the NUMBERS say Smith MORE than fulfilled Harbaugh/Roman’s projection for “offensive needs” and actually CARRIES a subpar receiving crew for the ENTIRE season.

AussieNinersFan

Look where Minnesota is now after they picked up “the greatest QB ever” and “all they was need was a QB to win a superbowl” according to all the experts and armchair coaches. No Superbowl. At least three years of rebuilding. I would rather still be a playoff contender in three years time with Alex Smith, than an absolute shell of a team after Manning is forced to retire.

Stephen Freese

I would not put anything out of the realm of possibility here. We do not lose if Manning comes, or if he doesn’t. Last year I told friends that the second year would be our year. Coach echoed the same thing recently. Here is why;

First full season for this staff and organization to work cohesively together with no distractions…

Off season preparation i.e. including tweaking the offensive design and Trent and scouting staff being on the road for a good portion of the entire college football season to scout

Free agency

First complete camp

One year experience for vets now in the new system

This team is being built to challenge every year now so whatever they decide will be the best for this organization and fan base. They are smart in putting a value on player’s dollar wise and draft ability i.e. round value related to skill level and need!

They know what they are doing…Thank you Jed and Mr. D

http://wesleybrown10@bscglobal.net wes

@Latopia
it doesnt matter what he does in the regular season, if he cant replicate those numbers in the post season against a competent defense, then it dont mean squat.

Bottom line… Niners had the lead and lost because KW giving up 10 points to the Giants.

Mike

WE ARE CURSED WITH SMITH FOREVER !!!

Ceadderman

Dammit latopia why you gotta come here with facts. Don’t you know you’re a fan? You’re not supposed to have access to those facts.

bobswire

Sign ‘em both. Manning would come here on the cheap just to be on this team knowing it may be his last hurrah to reach the super bowl and Smith won’t go anywhere else, he loves it here and would not feel slighted having to back-up Manning.

http://ihatemydvr.blogspot.com/ Bigmouth

The “numbers” say Alex Smith was right around average, little higher by some measures, a little lower by others:

DVOA: 14th ranked

DYAR: 13th ranked

WPA/G: 22nd ranked

EPA/P: 18th ranked

He ranks this high because the INT rate was so low, but the “numbers” suggest he will almost certainly regress in that regard.

I’m okay going into next season with Smith as our QB, and I don’t think there’s a chance in hell Peyton Manning signs with us. But let’s not pretend Smith was some kind of a superstar or that Manning wouldn’t be an upgrade at even 70% of his former self.

caliJayz

Since I dont cast stone directly at poeple I wont name names… But…
Man its funny people try to throw stats to justify there point but didnt put the real stats up.

Whats was Alices’ numbers in the only game that mattered his last one. Against a legit D… not the average D of the Saints.

The Giants D made Alice look like he has thru the years when he plays a team that has a well rounded D. He is very lucky we had a Top 3 defense and a coach who game planned for his numerous deficiencies.

We can get all the wide receivers we want but Alice will be Alice and throw to high or to low. WHen he gets happy feet cuz he thinks he going to get sacked then it really gets fun.

All I need is to watch the games not look at stats to know Alice is a below average QB who played his best SEASON in 7 years. REALLY 7 years and he still was descent, definitley not ELITE!

Anyone who has seen Peyton play know hes million time better that Alice without a doubt. If the Niniers were all about winning (ala Eddie D) this wouldnt even be a discussion cuz hed be a niner 2 morrow!

Manning is worth the risk reward pay off w/ out a doubt.

Eddie D. I miss U! Those were the days! Alice compared to Manning what a complete Joke and a waste of time.

caliJayz

1 – 13 on 3 rd down against the G – Men is all the stats I really need to see. Period!

caliJayz

Ohh ya do you really think at this stage Peyton cares about money or being a ble to WIN now i.e. playing in the superbowl.

I think SB and who is set up right now with a great chance to get there?

Finally ask urself who else is goin to sign Alice to be a starter for the $$$ he wants if the 9ers dont?

tic toc…. Dont hurt urself thinkn that hard cuz we all know… ZERO!

That in itself should tell u! Alice is a weak starting QB and everthing fell into place last year.

snsf49erloyal

Payton Manning, as good as he is. It’s a huge gamble if we sign him, cannot mortgage teams future. Niners have to stay with Alex Smith; just get a big name WR such as two free agents wide receivers from New Orleans! (Meecham – Colston). We are fine at our QB position.!

But the numbers that should resonate most with 9er fans has nothing to do with age.

88.5

88.5. Manning’s career — including his best seasons –QBR outdoors.

Add Candlestick’s wind, a shaky oline plus last year’s receiving crew and Alex’s 99.8 QBR OUTDOORs at the Stick last season suddenly takes on new meaning.

It means Manning’s age, arm, divatude, past dependency on Howie Mudd olines aren’t the only question marks for a DOME QB without a dome.

Ron

I say again hopefully the front office is open to improving the team anyway possible. Certainly a healthy P Manning is an upgrade at QB. If he passes workouts and physicals why not make an offer?

latopia

“But the [number] that should resonate most …”

3rdKing

Got Manning?

GET HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEM!!!!!!

super bowl or bust…..

end the decade of #11

Tom N

Dump some thing is working in progress (on AS) and take a chance on something with liabilty (on Manning) , dump you instead.

I put my total trust on Baalky and JH. We just need to upgrade our receiving corp….that is all.

mglt6710

I think Harbaugh made very clear that Smith was his starter, period.

In any event, can’t imagine that Manning would at all sign up for carrying’s Harbaugh’s golf bag. Never underestimate the power of schmoozing …

McMorsel

I know we all have high standards around these parts as a result of the dynasty we built in the 80′s, but let’s not forget we went to the NFC CHAMPIONSHIP game last year…. in a year when few expected us to even get in the playoffs.

And we were a blown Amhad-Bradshaw fumble call away from going to the ‘Ship. Smith threw 2 TDs in that game and 0 picks… a game where he had NO help from his WRs. He did enough to win that game for us, just like he did against NO the week before.

Over-paying Manning (at age 36) for 3-5 years risks blowing our cap space if he gets injured, and handicapping the front office from picking up the few remaining pieces we need to win that last game (i.e. a #1 WR, Kick-Returner, D-Lineman).

I don’t get how people don’t realize just how close this team is, and how far they’ve come, since BAALKE/HARBAUGH started steering this ship. 49ERS should spend their $ to grab Vincent Jackson or Marquis Colston rather than on a 36 year old QB whose has a neck held together with crazy glue.

Pretzel

I don’t get what the fuss is about Peyton’s health. All the naysayers make it seem like Peyton will breakdown if he gets hit. He had his vertebrae fused. It is very hard to injure your vertebrae if it is fused. So don’t worry about him hurting his neck/cervical vertebrae or w/e vertebrae he hurt. The problem is his nerve regeneration. His nerve atrophied but all the indication seems like the nerve is regenerating. The only thing we have to ask is “is his arm strength back to what it was before?”

Why not kick the tire…Everyone would understand if they do…There should be no hurt feeling b/c we are talking about a hall of famer QB replacing an average to slightly above average QB.

toby

to #27……that number that resonates most is 13-3 and sitting home watching the superbowl rather than playing…………….and next seasonthe comp will be greater as there will be expectation and prior knowledge…………….look at this number ………..cats have 9 lives…..alex has used up 7………………is he gonna run out of the last 2 on the front steps of the nex stadium in SC?

Bay area rogue

Some of you 49er fans are starting to listen to me. Manning at 80% puts the niners over the top. This “loyalty” to Alex is bad for business and Super Bowl hopes. As for mortgaging the future, the future is now! And as for the declaration of harbuagh’s “Alex is my starter”, he probably meant it at that moment, and that moment only. Things change. The same people that want alex back, are the same people that were ready to hire a hit man to take him out 9 months ago!

Coach Jim

The Team, The Team, The Team. This is a team built of mighty men, not super stars… mighty men. Peyton Manning is a great quarterback, but do you think he would ever caddy for me? Alex proved his worth last year… I see no red flags with Alex.

Ceadderman

Re-sign Smith to a reasonable contract, pass on Manning and sign two Stud Receivers through FA and draft a big Receiver in the draft. Nobody shorter than 6’3″.

Then if Smith “fails” as so many foolish fans are predicting, we know it’s the QB. At least the team is set up to replace him in that event.

[outcome if we make this stupid move...] If Manning fails we will still be stuck with TRASH at the Receiver position and Smith would be gone and will probably succeed wherever he lands, the Receivers will still be TRASH and Harbaugh will have lost the lockerroom. [/stupidity]

Manning did not look that good the LAST time he played at the Stick. If Manusky could call a good game the Defense would have kept the Colts out of our side of the field in the 4th Quarter and Manning would not have made that last ditch effort to put 7 on the board. 9er Defense held him scoreless all the way up to the final 2 minutes. If THAT is the Peyton Manning we would be getting, you people are foolish to even consider it.

Grey Warden

There’s not much offense with Alex at QB. We won the majority of our regular season games because of the defense and because of Akers, not Alex Smith.

#41 Ceadderman, it isn’t foolish to say that Alex might fail this coming season given his history of being average in the NFL. Regression to the mean. It is the tendency for any extreme result in a series of events to move closer to an average over time. Last season was an extreme outlier regarding Alex’s success. In his NFL career, he has been mediocre at best, with the exception being last season. It isn’t hard to think he may regress back to his old self when the upcoming season rolls around.

A good example of regression to the mean is Dorrell Wright from the Warriors. He had a breakout year last season, and this year, has basically went back to being mediocre to terrible.

Though I hate to say it, you could probably lump Ryan Vogelsong of the Giants in the same situation as Alex. He had a breakout year last season. We’ll see if he can keep it up. Just don’t be surprised if he isn’t able to.

latopia

“Manning did not look that good the LAST time he played at the Stick.”

—

Exactly. Manning has NEVER looked like Manning on outdoor fields. 88.5 (Peyton’s outdoor QBR) isn’t garbage. It just isn’t special. And NOT better than Smith last year (99.8) at the Stick.

The other thing I always get a BIG laugh from — the myth of Manning’s SUPERQUICK release. Yes, Manning has a quick release, But it’s not superhuman. Not supernatural. NOT extraordinatry — as ANY Youtube clip would confirm.

Manning needs his 3+secs on average drops or gun snaps just like everyone else. It’s THERE on film.

latopia

“A good example of regression to the mean is Dorrell Wright from the Warriors. He had a breakout year last season, and this year, has basically went back to being mediocre to terrible.”

—

ROTFLMAO.

“Dorell Wright” — BREAKOUT YEAR? On what planet?

Sure, career high field goal attempts + career high minutes = career high ppg.

Duhrell is the SAME guy he was at Miami — streaky, mentally MIA, a legend in his own teeny tiny mind.

Ceadderman

Grey you are wrong about Alex Smith and his “mediocre” career up to last season.

First, the man should NOT have been playing after he got jacked up buy that fata55 Rocky Bernard. Nolan wrongly questioned his toughness though so he went out onto the field with an atrophied forearm as well as a shoulder that was being held in place by bailing wire and bubble gum. Not even Manning could succeed in that scenario. Grade 3 separations are no freakin joke.

2nd Smith was out nearly two seasons (’07-’09) rehabbing his shoulder after breaking it the following season(’08) I don’t see where you see mediocre, but if you aren’t on the field performing I don’t see how you can be graded on your myopic grading curve.

Then in ’09 when he got on the field he tore s4!t up. He became one of the best Red Zone QBs’ EVAR my friend. How that’s mediocre I don’t know but… so you say, so it must be fact.

Then in ’10 Sing lost his freaking mind and went away from what worked the year before and Raye couldn’t figure out which end of the microphone to speak into to get Smith the play in on time. You try tying your shoes with two grown men holding your arms and lets see how well you do. I’m sure you’re a Pro at tying them which is why I used this analogy. On top of that our Defense was not being run by a good DC. When Nolan left that exposed Manusky. The same guy who went back to San Diego and got canned because he couldn’t run THEIR Defense. Smith had his bad moments sure. Just like any QB. But when you have no Receivers, a Line that gets you killed on a 3 step drop and Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum on the sidelines with half a playbook between them that’s a stack deck not even Manning could have won with. Do you think that Sing would have allowed Manning the ability to freelance? Hell no! Sing is a “My Way or the Highway HC” and I told everyone before Nolan got the axe that we didn’t want Sing as our HC. They’re cut from the same cloth, but at least Nolan could cover the Defensive ineptness of the Coordinators. Couldn’t do that with Offense but he wore out his welcome.

Then this season Smith has everything but Receivers and people want to throw the baby out with the bathwater AGAIN! If you understand anything about Football, you understand that Completions are everything in this era of Football. Receivers drop Passes all the time. It happens. But when you’re only throwing the ball 20 to 40 times a game, Receivers have to make the most of the opportunities they get. 15 was bummed that he wasn’t targeted more in the Championship game? Are we kidding or what? 15 targets and he caught FIVE and dropped more than Smith missed. You cannot even sell “mediocre” based on your lack of facts. Anyone that’s been paying attention to more than the QB can point out all the fallacies of your argument.

NFL starting QBs always come at a premium but I think the Chargers overpaid.

Smith under Harbaugh in year 1 was provably better than Flacco, Sanchez, Rivers etc last year and about par with Ryan. At 6/$72m w/$35m guaranteed, Ryan’s caphit in 2012 will be $13m. I think 4/$50m/$25m or 5/$55m/$20m for Smith would be a “bargain” for SF.

GoForBroke

Damn people who where trying to hang Smith prior to last year are now supporting him, even though he did not complete a freaking pass in the last 5minutes of the 4th Quarter against the Giants and at least give Akers a chance to win it on a FG.

With Manning at least he will not be limited in the play calling like Smith..dumb people.

Niners in 2012

Unbelievable, Alex Smith destroys my eyes for over half decade, has one decent year and wants a longterm contract.

Another funny think is the same people who don’t want Peyton Manning will be praying he doesn’t sign with Arizona.

John

get manning this is a joke. Alex Smith sucks, you cant catch the ball if it is under or over thrown no matter how great of a receiver you are. Smith had a great team around. They should have lost the Saints game and won the giants game easily. The defense played out of their mind, i would punch Alex Smith and number 11 if I were Patrick Willis for not winning that giants game. If you look at the tape Smith missed 3 key passes in the Giants game. He is worth league minimum. Get manning, if he doesnt pan out, trade him. You do not have time to figure out if Smith is a bust AGAIN, the time to win is now.