Thursday, December 31, 2015

A
U.N.-led push for localized ceasefires between pro- and anti-regime forces in
Syria has achieved notable results, but may not actually make a negotiated
settlement in Syria more likely. Local deals in Idlib, Homs, and Damascus
provinces have enabled both pro- and anti-regime fighters to withdraw from
besieged towns, sometimes in return for the delivery of desperately needed
humanitarian aid. The U.N. seeks to use these local deals to generate momentum
toward a nation-wide ceasefire as a confidence building measure before
negotiations between regime and opposition forces begin in Geneva on January
25, 2016. The success of these deals has largely been a product of crippling
sieges and aerial bombardment of opposition-held areas by pro-regime forces that
have forced local opposition fighters and civilian populations to submit to the
ceasefire; as such, they may not actually foster opposition confidence at the
negotiating table. ISW assesses that pro-regime forces seek to secure such
ceasefires in three additional areas in Damascus and one area north of Homs
City prior to the January negotiations. The regime frequently targets civilian
populations in these areas with barrel bombs, heavy airstrikes, shelling, and
allegedly chemical weapons, likely in order to force local surrenders by
anti-regime forces and civilian populations. The following maps represent ISW’s
assessment of the status of seven areas where ceasefires have been achieved or
are being sought in the lead-up to Geneva, as of December 28, 2015.

There
are more areas in Syria already under local ceasefires with the Syrian regime that are not depicted in the maps above,
particularly in Damascus.[1]

The
following sections detail relevant events and sets of negotiations in each of
the ceasefire areas. This list is not comprehensive and does not include ISW’s mapped
data on Russian airstrikes in Syria, which are available at ISW’s research blog,
at: iswresearch.blogspot.com

The Damascus-Idlib Ceasefires
and Evacuations

The ceasefire and evacuation deal between pro- and anti-regime forces
in the besieged enclaves of Fu’ah and Kefraya as well as Zabadani was completed
on December 29, 2015, after months of negotiation.

August 22, 2015: Opposition forces
in Idlib targeted a regime enclave in retaliation for regime strikes in
Damascus. Regime
warplanes conducted airstrikes targeting the opposition stronghold of Douma in
the Eastern
Ghoutasuburbs of
Damascus, killing at least thirty civilians and wounding over 110 others. In
response, hardline opposition group Ahrar al-Sham announced the start of
operations to target the besieged Shi'a-majority towns of Fu’ahFu’ah and Kefrayanortheast of Idlib City with 100
artillery shells per day. (SOHR, SOHR, All4Syria, All4Syria, Statement)[Analyst note:Opposition forces previously utilized pressure on Fu’ah
and Kefraya as leverage in the Turkish- and Iranian-brokered negotiations
surrounding the besieged opposition within Zabadani northwest of Damascus prior
to the breakdown of negotiations between Ahrar al-Sham and Lebanese Hezbollah
on August 15. The new linkage of the two towns to airstrikes on Eastern Ghouta
may signal that opposition forces intend to apply similar leverage in order to
achieve effects in the Syrian capital]

September 20, 2015: Pro- and
anti-regime forces reached a temporary ceasefire in Damascus and Idlib
Provinces. The
Syrian regime, opposition forces, and Lebanese Hezbollah implemented a new
ceasefire in the Shi'a-majority towns of Fu’ahFu’ah and Kefraya in
Idlib Province as well as Zabadani and the neighboring town of Madaya in
Damascus Province following negotiations between an Iranian delegation and hardline
opposition group Ahrar al-Sham. The agreement is the third such ceasefire in
the four towns over the previous two months, and followed a major opposition
offensive against Fu’ah and Kefraya, which began on September 18. An
anonymous Lebanese security source stated that the two sides negotiated terms
for a six-month-long ceasefire in the besieged enclaves which would include a
full evacuation of opposition fighters and any willing civilians
from Zabadani to Idlib Province; the evacuation of wounded pro-regime
fighters and up to 10,000 civilians from Fu’ah and Kefraya; and the
release of five hundred prisoners by the Syrian regime. The agreement was
to be overseen by a U.N. working group established to ensure its
implementation.(Reuters,SOHR,Hurriyet,Al
Jazeera, Daily Star[2], Daily Star[3]) [Analyst Note: Previous ceasefires in thetwo besieged enclaves broke down after
several days amidst opposition concerns over forced population transfers. A
long-term truce in Zabadani could enable Hezbollah and regime forces to
redeploy to the Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus to reverse an ongoing
opposition offensive in the area which severed the strategic M5 Highway between
Damascus and Homs City]

September 22, 2015: Pro- and
anti-regime forces extended temporary ceasefires in Damascus and Idlib. Pro-Hezbollah
media sources reported that opposition forces, Hezbollah, and the Syrian regime
agreed to extend the ceasefire in Fu’ah and Kefrayaas well as opposition in Zabadani
and Madaya until the conclusion of a wider
six-month-long agreement which would include prisoner swaps and the evacuation
of thousands of civilians. (Reuters,Daily Star[4])

September
24, 2015: Pro- and
anti-regime forces formalized ceasefires in Damascus and Idlib Provinces. The Syrian
regime, Lebanese Hezbollah, hardline opposition
group Ahrar
al-Sham, and other opposition forces reportedly reached a final agreement in Fu’ah and Kefraya opposition and Zabadani, following negotiations between an
Iranian and Turkish delegation. (SOHR,
Daily Star[5])

October
2, 2015: U.N.
announced a halt to humanitarian operations in three ceasefires. The office
of UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura stated that the U.N. suspended
planned humanitarian operations as part of the ceasefire agreement in Fu’ah and Kefrayaas well opposition in Zabadani due
to a surge of military activity in surrounding areas. The U.N. called on all
parties to “fulfill their responsibilities” to protect civilians and “reach the
necessary understandings” to implement the humanitarian aspects of the
agreement as soon as possible. (AP,Reuters[6])

October 11,
2015: Regime forces withdrew equipment
and personnel fromZabadani. Regime forces
reportedly withdrew significant quantities of heavy equipment, artillery, and
personnel from Zabadani following the conclusion of the ceasefire agreement.
The reinforcements deployed towards the Eastern Ghoutasuburbs of Damascus as well
as Dera'a
Provincein
southern Syria. Although the ceasefires in Zabadani as well as Fu’ah and
Kefraya continued to hold, the agreement had been rendered increasingly
irrelevant following the start of the Russian air campaign in Syria on September
30. Russian warplanes frequently targeted opposition positions included in the
ceasefire. (SNN)

December
21, 2015: Alleged Russian airstrikes strained ceasefire in Idlib Province. Opposition
forces shelled the towns of Fu’ah and Kefraya and began clashing
with pro-regime forces in the area after alleged Russian warplanes conducted a
series of deadly airstrikes in opposition-held Idlib City,
killing at least 46 civilians and opposition fighters while wounding over 170
others. The clashes threatened to interrupt the UN-sponsored evacuation deal for
Fu’ah and Kefraya as well as Zabdani and Mayada. (SOHR, SOHR, SOHR, BBC, Reuters, VoA)

December 27, 2015: Evacuation of besieged enclaves in Northern
Damascus and Idlib Provinces moved forward. The ceasefire and evacuation deal reached
between pro- and anti-regime forces in the besieged enclaves of Fu’ah and Kefraya
as well as Zabadani moved forward after months of delay. Buses and ambulances
transported 300 pro-regime civilians and wounded fighters from Fu’ah and Kefraya
into the Turkish City of Hatay, from which they would travel by plane to
Beirut. In addition, more than 125 fighters were evacuated from Zabadani and proceeded
en route to Beirut, from where they traveled by plane to Turkey. (Reuters)

December 29, 2015: U.N.-negotiated evacuation deal in
Damascus and Idlib Provinces was completed. 300
pro-regime civilians and wounded fighters from Fu’ah and Kefraya arrived
in Damascus after
travelling from Idlib Province through Turkey and Lebanon.
In addition, 125 opposition fighters from the opposition town of Zabdani arrived in Hatay, Turkey after travelling through
Lebanon. 86 of these fighters crossed the border into Syria and were reportedly
received by the Jabhat al-Nusra- and Ahrar al-Sham-led Jaysh al-Fatah Coalition
in Idlib City. The
remaining fighters were reportedly being treated in hospitals in Turkey. (AFP,SNN,Zaman al-Wasl,All4Syria)

Damascus

Eastern Ghouta

Ceasefire failed in mid-November; regime
demands surrender on December 25 after military gains and death of rebel
commander.

August 15-16, 2015:
Retaliatory regime strike on market in Douma, Damascus killed over 100. Damascus-based Salafist
opposition group Jaysh al-Islam seized a major regime armored vehicle
base near the town of Harasta in
the Eastern
Ghoutasuburbs
of Damascus on August 15 following heavy clashes. Regime airstrikes later
struck a public market in the Jaysh al-Islam stronghold of Douma in likely
retaliation for the opposition advance, killing over one hundred civilians and
wounding over two hundred others. (All4Syria, All4Syria, Jaysh al-Islam, AFP, All4Syria, AFP)

August 22, 2015: Regime airstrikes
on Douma, Damascus killed 30 opposition forces; opposition retaliated in Idlib.
Regime
warplanes conducted airstrikes targeting the town of Douma, killing at least 30
civilians and wounding over 110 others. In response, hardline opposition group Ahrar
al-Sham announced the start of operations to target the towns of Fu’ah and Kefrayawith one hundred artillery shells
per day. (SOHR, SOHR, All4Syria, All4Syria, Statement)

October
14, 2015: Regime
renewed offensive operations in Damascus with Russian air support. The Syrian
regime launched a new offensive with alleged Russian air support against opposition-held
areas in the northern outskirts of the Eastern Ghouta suburbs of
Damascus. The offensive largely targeted opposition positions in the
neighborhoods of Jobar and Ayn Tarma in northeastern Damascus City, as well as
areas along the strategic M5 Highwayconnecting DamascustoHoms Citythat were seized by opposition
group Jaysh al-Islam in September 2015. This attack followed reports that
the regime withdrew significant quantities of heavy equipment, artillery, and
personnel from opposition and deployed the reinforcements to Eastern Ghoutaand Dera'a Provinceon October 11. (SNN, All4Syria)

October 30 – November 1, 2015: Regime shells killed over forty in Douma; opposition group retaliated. Regime forces shelled the opposition-held town of Douma in
the Eastern Ghouta suburbs
of Damascus killing at
least 40 people and injuring at least 100 others. Salafist opposition
group Jaysh al-Islam subsequently paraded cages containing regime soldiers
and their families across Eastern
Ghouta, reportedly in an attempt to discourage regime airstrikes
and shelling.

November 18, 2015: Opposition forces reportedly agreed to fifteen-day ceasefire in
Eastern Damascus suburbs. Syrian opposition
factions reportedly agreed to a fifteen-day-long ceasefire in Eastern Ghouta
following negotiations with the Syrian regime mediated by Russia. Salafist
opposition group Jaysh al-Islam allegedly served as the primary representative
of opposition forces in Damascus. (Daily Star[8])

November 19, 2015: Ceasefire in Damascus failed. Clashes, shelling, and regime airstrikes resumed
in Eastern Ghouta after
a breakdown in Russian-mediated negotiations to establish a fifteen-day-long
ceasefire in the region. The breakdown reportedly followed disagreements
regarding the amount of aid supplies allowed to enter Eastern Ghouta and the
release of all Alawite prisoners held by opposition forces. The Syrian regime
also insisted that the ceasefire only covered the towns of Douma and Harasta rather than all of Eastern Ghouta. A spokesperson
for Salafist opposition group Jaysh al-Islam nonetheless stated that the
group’s leadership council continued to study the proposal. (SOHR, Reuters, Syria Direct, AP)

December 14,
2015: Regime forces recaptured airbase
in Damascus. Syrian
armed forces backed by Hezbollah fighters and Russian air support captured
the Marj al-Sultan airbase
as well as the neighboring town of Marj al-Sultan. Salafist opposition group Jaysh
al-Islam, Jabhat al-Nusra, and other major Islamist, Damascus-based opposition
groups in Eastern Ghouta subsequently formed
a coordinative operations room in order to facilitate anti-regime operations
near Marj al-Sultan. Jaysh al-Islam denied reports that regime forces gained
full control of the airbase, and announced that newly-formed operations room
regained positions in Marj al-Sultanpreviously
lost to regime forces. (AFP,All4Syria,Zaman al-Wasl)

Regime demands surrender of Moadamiya in December after alleged
chemical weapons attack.

December 22 - 23, 2015: Syrian regime conducted alleged chemical weapons
attack in Damascus. Activists
accused the regime of firing missiles containing an unidentified “toxic gas”
into the opposition-held town of Moadamiyeh in the Western Ghouta suburbs of Damascus amidst
an ongoing offensive in the area, killing at least ten individuals and injuring
several dozen others. Local hospitals reported that victims suffered from
bloody noses, vomiting, and convulsions amidst conflicting reports regarding
whether the symptoms had been caused by sarin nerve gas or another unknown
chemical agent. Moadamiyeh had previously been one of the targets of the August
2013 chemical weapons attacks in Damascus, likely due to its strategic location
adjacent to the Mezzeh Military Airport.(AP, All4Syria, SNN, Zaman
al-Wasl, AFP, LCC, SOHR)

December 26, 2015: Syrian regime demanded surrender
of Moadamiya after alleged Sarin gas attack. Pro-regime forces
reportedly blocked the only entrance to the town of al-Moadamiya in
Western Ghouta and demanded the surrender of opposition forces in the
area. Abu al-Khair al-Attar, a member of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)
negotiating committee in the town, reportedly rejected the demand. (Al-Jazeera)

Southern Damascus

A U.N. brokered deal delayed

December 24, 2015: U.N. brokered evacuation deal between
regime and jihadists in Southern Damascus. The regime reportedly concluded U.N.-brokered
negotiations with ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra for the withdrawal of all fighters
and their families from three besieged areas in Southern Damascus: the Yarmouk
refugee camp and the neighborhoods of Hajar al-Aswad and al-Qadam. In return,
the regime would allow humanitarian aid into the areas. The ISIS fighters and
their families reportedly could relocate to Homs Province, ar-Raqqa Province,
and/or Bir al-Qasseb in the Southern Damascus countryside. Unconfirmed and
conflicting reports indicated the Jabhat al-Nusra members would relocate to
Idlib Province or to Mare’a, north of Aleppo City. 18 busses reportedly entered
al-Qadam on December 24 to evacuate 2,000 jihadist fighters from the
neighborhood. (BBC, SOHR, AFP)

December 25, 2015: Damascus evacuation deal delayed
following death of Zahran Alloush. The deal for the withdrawal of
ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra members from Southern Damascus was delayed for “logistical
reasons” following the death of Salafist opposition group Jaysh al-Islam’s commander,
Zahran Alloush. The busses transporting the fighters needed to pass
through terrain controlled by Jaysh al-Islam, according to Hezbollah
media. It is unclear which side initiated the delay. (Reuters, BBC, WSJ)

Homs

Rastan & Telbisa

Pro-regime forces sustain pressure on rebel
pocket in Rastan and Telbisa, north of Homs City. ISW assesses regime intent to neutralize the pocket, possibly through a ceasefire.

October 31, 2015: Regime allegedly shelled Northern Homs with toxic gas. Regime forces reportedly attacked the opposition-held town
of Telbisa, north of Homs City, with a toxic gas, according
to local activists. Russian airstrikes regularly
target this area, which is a target for pro-regime clearing operations.
Pro-regime forces have thus far failed to advance.(All4Syria, Zaman
al-Wasl, SNN)

*Russia conducts airstrikes and
rotary wing strikes in support of pro-regime forces on this front line. For
more see ISW’s Russian Airstrikes in Syria maps, available at:
iswresearch.blogpsot.com

Wa’er District

Ongoing evacuation from the last
opposition-held area of Homs prompts spectacular attacks by al Qaeda and ISIS.

December 1, 2015: Opposition
forces and regime forces finalized deal to evacuate last opposition-held district
in Homs City: The governor of Homs City announced the finalization
of a deal negotiating the evacuation of opposition fighters and their families
from the besieged Wa’er District in Northwestern Homs city. The
agreement called for a two-month withdrawal of opposition forces from the area
beginning on December 5, the submission of heavy and medium weapons to Syrian
authorities, and the release of hostages on both sides. In return, the regime would
lift the siege on the neighborhood and cease military operations against the
area. Regime police would assume control of the Wa'er neighborhood following
the withdrawal of opposition forces. (AFP, Agencies, SNN, All4Syria)
[Analyst note: The Wa'er neighborhood was the last opposition-held section
of the city following the evacuation of opposition fighters from the Old City
of Homs in May 2014 under terms similar to this deal.]

December 5, 2015: Humanitarian aid deliveries began
in last opposition-held district of Homs City: Humanitarian
assistance entered the Wa'er District as part of the U.N.-supervised deal to
evacuate all remaining opposition fighters from the district. Homs
Province governor Talal Barazi stated that up to 2,000 opposition fighters would
depart Wa'er District in several stages over the next two months. An initial
group of opposition fighters primarily-affiliated with ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra
would reportedly depart for Idlib and Hama Provinces on December 8 followed by
the evacuation of remaining opposition forces to northern Homs Province in
batches. Regime officials in turn agreed to release detainees and end the
regime-imposed siege of the district. (Reuters, Syria Direct, SOHR, SOHR, All4Syria, AP, AFP[9])

December 9, 2015: Over 700 evacuated from last opposition-held
district of Homs City. Approximately 750 individuals evacuated the Wa'er
District of Homs City to opposition-held northwestern Syria as part of the U.N.-sponsored
local ceasefire. The evacuees included roughly 300 opposition fighters
including members of ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, along with their family members
and other wounded civilians. The remaining opposition fighters would reportedly
be allowed to keep their light weapons until the Syrian regime fulfilled other
conditions, including the release of over 5,000 detainees from the Homs Central
Prison. The spokesperson for U.N. Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura
stated that the deal demonstrated that a proposed “nationwide ceasefire” in
Syria could be viable. (NYTimes, Reuters, SOHR, SOHR, SNN, Zaman al-Wasl, All4Syria)

December 12,
2015: ISIS conducted VBIED and SVEST attack
in Homs City. ISIS
Wilayat Homs claimed a dual VBIED and SVEST attack against the Alawite-majority
al-Zahraa neighborhood in Homs City, killing at least 16
people and wounding over 50. ISIS claimed the individual responsible for the
attack parked the VBIED and detonated it remotely prior to detonating his own
SVEST. Residents of the neighborhood reportedly held a mass demonstration
following the incident demanding the resignation of the governor of Homs. (All4Syria,Statement,
Reuters[10])