Wednesday, 25 January 2012

We know that Ken Livingstone does. He's wanted it ever since May 3rd 2008 and has spent every day since then trying to win it.

But what about the rest of his party? Take this tale from Amol Rajan at the Independent:

"In November I sat next to one of the failed candidates for Labour's leadership at dinner. He was so utterly hateful of Ken and dismissive of his chances that I presumed he was exceptional in the party. But in fact senior Labour figures have been briefing against Ken for weeks. If they want control of London again, that should stop."

That is of course, assuming that they do want to win back control of London. And so far I'm far from convinced.

Ken and his team have been in opposition now for four years and are beginning to show that they want and know how to get back into power.

Nationally however, the party seem locked in a permanent state of opposition. Opposition that is, to themselves.

Hardly an hour goes by online without some new squabble, defection, or flame war between one or other of the barely distinguishable, but for some reason bitterly opposed, wings of the party.

And so pleased are they with this game of battleships that they have forgotten that there is a major and very much winnable election taking place right under their noses.

Their strategy is to play down the importance of the Mayoral elections so that if (and many of them assume when) Ken loses, they won't be tarnished too much by association.

This is the strategy of the loser.

Asked by LBC this week whether a Ken Livingstone win mattered to Ed Miliband, former minister Tessa Jowell replied that he was far more concerned with the general election in a few years time.

The big problem for Boris is that he has spent the past six months talking about issues (the European referendum, 50p tax rate, airports in Kent) which most Londoners simply don't care about.

Ken meanwhile has been banging on about the three issues (cost of living, transport and crime) which Londoners do care about when choosing their next Mayor.

At times Boris has seemed more concerned with the next election to be leader of the Conservative Party, than the current election, to be Mayor of London.

This has all been reflected in today's poll the details of which state that:

"Since our last poll in November 2011 Ken has overtaken Boris not only after reallocating second preferences (as the headline figure shows) but also on first preference votes (now leads 46% to 44% - in Nov Boris had an 8% point lead)

Boris’s loss of support is well demonstrated in the inner/outer split: in inner London Boris has 32% support - lower than Ken enjoys in outer London (43%). Similarly Boris has 57% support in his own stronghold of outer London but this is again lower than Ken has in inner London (68%)."

The difficulty for Ken is that he has to persuade Londoners that after five years as GLC leader and two terms as Mayor, he still has something to offer.

He also has to realise that fares was always going to be his ace card. The other issues are much harder for him to win on and the election is still a long way away.

The good news for Boris is that he still leads amongst outer Londoners and older Londoners, two groups most likely to vote.

And after two polls putting him behind, he may finally realise that being the Mayor of London is not his by right.

-UPDATE-The full numbers are now up: Boris leads Ken on the economy and crime, but Ken leads Boris on fares and "Knows most about the concerns of ordinary Londoners." There's still everything to play for.

Thursday, 12 January 2012

Boris Johnson has called on his supporters to launch a letter-writing campaign for something that will happen anyway.

In an email to supporters, Boris's campaign chief Lynton Crosby claims that "he needs your help" in order to freeze the Mayor's share of the council tax precept.

"he wants to freeze your council tax - for the fourth year in a row. But he needs your help. His budget needs to be approved in a vote by London Assembly members... Boris will work hard to persuade them that your council tax should be frozen. But in 11 years, Labour have never once voted in favour of freezing your council tax...

You can help by writing to your Assembly member and urging them to vote for the Mayor’s budget, so send an email to your Assembly member now: www.borisbudget.com"

Except Boris doesn't need his supporters' help to freeze the council tax. In fact he doesn't even need the Labour, Lib Dem, or Green Party's help.

Under the GLA act all he needs is more than one third of the London Assembly to support his budget and it passes.

And as Conservative London Assembly members make up more than one third of the Assembly, his budget will pass regardless of whether the other parties support it.

As it has done for the past the past three years!

So unless the Tory AMs are planning to oppose their own Mayor's precept freeze then Boris Johnson's supporters can save themselves a lot of pen, ink and tweets: