Dec.
1, 2003 — With the 2003
Atlantic hurricane season having officially ended Nov. 30, NOAA hurricane
specialists said the above-normal 2003 Atlantic hurricane season produced
14 tropical storms, of which 7 became hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes
(Fabian, Isabel and Kate). Six of the named systems affected the United
States, bringing high wind, storm surge or rain. (Click NOAA satellite
image for larger view of Hurricane Isabel taken on Sept. 18, 2003, at
7:53 a.m. EDT. Click here
for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”)

“NOAA’s
Climate Prediction Center, Hurricane
Research Division and National Hurricane Center identified the high
likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season as early as May,”
said John Jones, deputy director of the NOAA
National Weather Service. “We expected an above normal season
based in part on the wind, air pressure and ocean temperature patterns
that recur annually for decades at a time and favor active hurricane seasons.
These patterns make up the active phase of the Atlantic’s multi-decadal
signal.”

Gerry Bell,
head of NOAA’s long-range hurricane forecast team, said, “These
conditions were in place by early August, setting the stage for a very
busy season.”

Notable hurricanes
during 2003 included: Claudette, which struck Texas near Matagorda Island;
Isabel, which became one of the strongest hurricanes on record with maximum
sustained winds of 165 mph; Juan, the worst hurricane to hit Halifax,
Nova Scotia, in modern history; and Fabian, the most destructive hurricane
to hit Bermuda in more than 75 years.

Hurricane
Isabel brought record storm surge flooding to the upper Chesapeake
Bay, including the Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Annapolis, Md., waterfronts.
Tropical storm conditions extended over much of the rest of the region
from North Carolina northward to Long Island, N.Y., as the storm made
landfall.

The EMC is
currently working on the next generation model named the Weather and Research
Forecasting System for Hurricanes. This system of even more sophisticated
computer models will improve forecasts of hurricane track, hurricane intensity,
hurricane rainfall and wave forecasts.

Noting that
2003 marks the first year NOAA has issued operational five-day track and
intensity forecasts, Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA
National Hurricane Center, said, “In the case of powerful Hurricane
Isabel, these longer-range forecasts were useful for planning purposes
all along the East Coast.” The critical mission of the NOAA National
Weather Service is the protection of life and property, and to provide
better and timelier warnings to the American public.

The period
1995-2003 has been the most active for Atlantic hurricanes in the historical
record. Since 1995 seven of nine seasons have been above-normal (the exceptions
being the El Niño years of 1997 and 2002). “We are concerned
that this increased activity will continue in the coming years,”
said Jim Laver, director of the NOAA
Climate Prediction Center. “Since NOAA began making Seasonal
Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks in 1998, we have correctly predicted the levels
of activity in every season by the August update.”

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National Weather Service is the primary source for weather data, forecasts
and warnings for the United States and its territories. The NOAA National
Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and
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enhance the national economy.

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Department of Commerce.