You can find advanced statistics that attest to Maxx Forde’s burgeoning promise as a football player. And the B.C. Lions are happy to provide them.

Yet the preferred metric used by most football fans is draft position, starting with the obvious: First-round draft picks are supposed to be better players than seventh-rounders.

To Wally Buono’s way of thinking, however, the game of football is an orchard. That bright, shiny, perfectly shaped apple plucked from a tree might actually have a worm hidden inside. Whereas, that slightly gnarly, windfall fruit could turn out to be sound and edible.

Take the example of Forde, a seventh-round pick in the 2015 Canadian Football League draft.

For three weeks at training camp in Kamloops this year, the former practice roster player was the apple of the coach’s eye. In a contest to see which second-year defensive lineman had made the most progress to stick with the 46-man active roster, the seventh rounder had the edge over Ese Mrabure-Ajufo, selected in the first round of the 2015 draft, 53 spots higher than Forde.

“It’s not where you start, it’s where you end up,” Buono explained. “Maxx Forde really worked hard. He’s improved tremendously as a football player. He worked hard all last season. He’s gotten rewarded.”

Offered a spot on the Lions’ practice roster, Mrabure-Ajufo declined. He was quickly picked up by the Saskatchewan Roughriders, who have a bye in the first week of the 2016 schedule.

The ‘Riders also added offensive lineman Dillon Guy, another B.C. draft pick (fourth round, 2016) who was ticketed for the Lions’ practice roster but also declined the assignment, as is his prerogative.

While the optics don’t look good — losing a first-rounder and another player (Guy) who might have been a first-round pick, had his stock not fallen because of knee surgery — the Lions are trying to put a positive spin on a p.r. misstep. It appears they’ve accumulated so much depth and player talent that it’s difficult to stash and keep them all. Saskatchewan, which wants what B.C. has, must assign both former Lions to the active roster with full pay for Week 1.

The analytics revolution has been slow to take hold in football. One doesn’t expect an old-school coach, who prefers the old-fashioned eyeball test, to be into advanced statistical measurements, like Moneyball in baseball. But apparently the new math is starting to infiltrate the front office of the Lions.

“Do you know who was the highest rated player last year in the 2015 draft (according to analytics)?” Buono said. “Maxx Forde. Maxx Forde proved this year that we should have taken those numbers more seriously. The guy who made the better plays on defence (in training camp) was Maxx Forde. So Maxx Forde could be our first-round pick from last year.”

Rated three spots ahead of Charles Vaillancourt, the Lions’ rookie starting right guard, in the initial rankings released by the CFL Scouting Bureau last September, Guy’s final college season at Buffalo was wiped out because of surgery to repair a Grade 3 MCL tear and a torn ACL. The Hamilton, Ont., native was the 30th pick in the 2016 draft, a point where teams are beginning to throw the dice and hope for the best.

“We worked with him, we gave him time off,” Buono said of Guy. “In fairness, he sucked it up and was tough. Unfortunately, it (his knee) is going to be an issue for a while. I can understand why there might be some physical limitations.”

The decision came down to offering an active roster spot to Guy or second-year Lion Jas Dhillon, a backup centre and guard, and Buono went with the latter.

“There’s always a learning curve on the road to get to where you want to be at this level,” explained Dhillon, a former first-team all-Canadian at UBC. “I’ve been around the league a little bit longer. I understand the dynamics of it. It takes a while for everything to come together so you can really show your potential.”

With Guy gone to Saskatchewan, the Lions have offered a practice roster spot to a Canadian offensive lineman they released on Saturday — T-Dre Player — but he is pursuing other avenues for now, according to the GM and head coach.

Photograph by: Arlen Redekop, PNG

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