“Honestly, I am searching to find out what factors have led to this decrease,” Smith said. “I know last year we struggled in the early part of the year with higher than normal crime rates, especially in some violent crime categories, but we’ve seen very little in the way of robberies and aggravated assaults, especially this past quarter.”

The early part of 2016 saw “senseless low-level narcotic shootings” that fortunately didn’t repeat this year, Smith said. Police have also had good luck catching burglars “before they can start causing some real statistical influence,” he said.

While it’s possible he’s both, he can only credit luck for a small reduction in crime in Green Bay for 2017 so far, compared with the same period a year ago.

Violent crimes are down about 30 percent from last year, while property crimes are down about 8 percent, according to police department figures.

The department launched an anti-shoplifting initiative last year, in which police have been working with shop owners on crime prevention strategies. Those efforts may also be paying off, Smith said.

The 154 shoplifting incidents so far this year are typical of what the city experienced over the past five years but showed a 31-incident reduction from last year at this time.

Although there are variations in some types of crime, overall crime statistics for the first part of the year follow a pattern that began in 2013, when reported crimes began to fall.

The city’s crime numbers generally are low enough that it doesn’t take much to move the needle, Smith said. The city saw a 53 percent increase in thefts from vehicles over 2016, but a single case of about a dozen batteries being stolen from vehicles in a parking lot accounted for nearly half the difference, Smith said.

The department keeps crime trends and holds weekly meetings to look for trends and patterns so it can adjust crime control strategies, Smith said.