More Losses, More Excuses, More Problems

Fresh off breaking the Sixers’ losing streak in less-than-dignified fashion, the Warriors have retreated to the only two excuses they have left: they’re depleated by injuries and the young players aren’t doing enough. Both excuses fall apart, however, when compared against the closest stretch of games available for comparison — the last 24 of the 08-09 season.

March and April 2009 — we didn’t appreciate it when we had the chance. The Warriors hadn’t sniffed a relevant game since December, Ellis had returned, disappeared, and returned again, Nelson openly admitted the team was in full tank mode by adopting the rest-a-vet strategy. It wasn’t particularly pretty — either at the time or in hindsight — but it was better than what we have now. The team closed the 08-09 season going 9-15 in its final 24 games, 2 games ahead of the team’s current 7-17 record to start the 09-10 season. To put it bluntly, if the Warriors are currently trying to win, they’re doing worse than when they were trying to lose. (But hey, if we’re already tanking, we’re two games ahead of last year!)

But the injuries are to blame for the falloff, right? Not so fast. The Warriors’ final two months of last season weren’t exactly a healthy stretch for the team. The two centerpieces of the current Warriors team — Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette — played 12 and 11 fewer games at the close of last season than they have to start this season. Jackson only played in 2 more games to close last year than to start this year. Biedrins has only played in 4 games this year, but also only worked his way into 10 games during last year’s final 24 (for relatively limited minutes at that). The difference in Watson’s, Morrow’s and Randolph’s games played is minor (down 4, 2, and 0 respectively). Curry — in all 24 of this year’s games — also wasn’t available during the team’s end-of-the-season run. The Warriors have been missing two big men (Biedrins and Turiaf), but with Hunter seeing 5, 8, 0, 0, 6 and 9 minutes the last 6 games, the Warriors aren’t even trying to see if he can help ease the loss of big bodies. The same goes for Randolph’s limited minutes. Going small has been as much a choice in the past few weeks as a necessity.

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But all of the above isn’t intended to argue that some key Warriors haven’t been missing more games during this recent stretct. Ronny Turiaf played in 23 of the Warriors’ final 24 last year, compared on only 4 games so far this year. Kelenna Azubuike played in 20 games to close the season, compared to 9 this year. I’d be the first to argue that their absences hurt this team’s ability to win, but are the team’s injury excuse defenders really arguing that the loss of 19 games from Turiaf and 11 from Azubuike equals the loss of 12 from Ellis and 11 from Maggette? If Turiaf and Azubuike are that important to the Warriors’ system, why weren’t they featured more prominantly when they were healthy? And if the loss of Ellis and Maggette wasn’t a crippling blow for this team at the end of last year (or at least any more crippling that what we’re seeing now), why are Don Nelson and Keith Smart so afraid to take Ellis off the court for more than 30 seconds? If you want to blame injuries for the Warriors’ current poor play, that’s fine. They obviously have played a role in the team’s struggles. But this team also had injuries last year — arguably more significant ones — and won more games (not to mention played with more fire) than we’re currently seeing.

The other half of the injury story from the end of last year involves the healthy players. With Ellis, Maggette, and Jackson seeing limited minutes, the Warriors played a more team-oriented offense, with Morrow, Watson, Randolph, and Azubuike all getting consistent touches, night-in, night-out. They also put more rebounders on the floor and fought harder on defense. And when the youngsters opportunities weren’t slotted between Ellis’, Maggette’s, and Mikki Moore’s minutes, they not only produced, but won games for the Warriors — more games than we’re currently winning going with a veteran heavy squad. The only other variably in play possibly benefitting last year’s team was Jamal Crawford, but if we’re going to give him credit for making last year’s team better than this one, we also have to ask the question of why Nelson issued the opt-out or be-traded ultimatum, necessitating Riley shipping him out for IR-filler in return. Again, excuses have consequences — if the talent level of this team is to blame, we have to look at the choices that depleted that talent level.

So with reports breaking today that Anthony Randolph is once again on the trading block, I’m afraid I’m not surprised. With the team looking increasingly hopeless against all but the worst teams in the league (aka New Jersey), it makes sense that Riley and Nelson should be looking to make a move. Unfortunately, the rumors have them looking to make the wrong one. Presumably the plan is to keep Nelson as coach, but swap some of our young players for veterans capable of helping the team win now, putting bodies in Arena seats, and dragging Nelson towards the record. But if the end of last year in comparison to the start of this year is any guide, it’ll be a step in the wrong direction. There’s evidence to suggest that the team Nelson doesn’t want — full of young, big players that get only limited minutes when the vets are available — may perform as well or better than the team he thinks he needs to win.

Adam Lauridsen

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Adam, Wow, that is a lot of posts that have nothing to do with Adam’s entry. Adam asks why the late 08-09 Warriors were better than the current version. That’s easy, Adam. Defense. Azu and Ronny are the only two Warriors who consistently hustle and stay in front of their man on defense. Plus Ronny can block shots. Ellis played poor defense last year, so his absence did not matter. Ellis has also played poor defense this year except for about 4 inspired games. They won two of them. The rest of the time, Ellis is gambling, Maggette is not playing any defense and the two defenders are out. Thus, stinky Warrriors. BTW, AB is a poor defender. He blows jump switches regularly (Nellie needs to STOP requiring that) and he routinely gets burned by big guys when defending one on one in the post. Defense, of course, wins games in the NBA (see Boston, Houston, L.A. Don’t see SA, which lost Bowen.) – Adam, you should know that.