Future Watch 2015: the NHL's top 10 falling prospects

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Future Watch 2015: the NHL's top 10 falling prospects

Which hot NHL prospects have cooled off and slid down our rankings over the past year? Here's a look at the biggest Future Watch fallers.

Earlier this week, I outlined the top rising prospects in THN Future Watch 2015, our ultimate prospect ranking publication. To recap the process:

Scouts from every NHL team rank their organizations' top 10 prospects. That generates a pool of 300 players. A panel of about 15 (the number varies slightly by year) head scouts and GMs uses that 300-player list to create a top 50. Votes are assembled to create an aggregate top 50, and the panel also ranks each franchise's prospect pools.

Which players have plummeted among our top 75 – or out of it – based on last year's ranking? Here's a look at Future Watch's top fallers. Keep in mind anyone ranked last year who graduated to full-time NHL duty doesn't count as a "faller."

Matteau brings a skill set New Jersey can use, but he also represents exactly what's wrong with the organization's development right now. The Devils have little offense from the forward position coming through the pipeline. Matteau is a big, grinding player who flashed some scoring ability in the QMJHL. The goals just haven't come in the AHL, though, and his 2013-14 NHL debut was too early. Now that he looks like a checker rather than a top-six guy, he resembles his father, ex-NHLer Stephane, even more.

The Coyotes can take solace in the fact Gormley has gotten an extended taste of NHL duty this season with 21 games under his belt, and he has a good chance to start next season there. Now, 23, though, Gormley was approaching bust status. He was the 13th overall pick in 2010. The Desert Dogs like his intelligence and believe he's capable of contributing as a two-way blueliner at the NHL level. His foot speed needs work, though, and GM Don Maloney is quoted in Future Watch saying he wants to see Gormley up the all-around tempo of his game. He's no longer a surefire stud, hence the drop in his overall rank, but the very fact he's in the NHL right now shows the Coyotes believe he can be a good pro.

Quite the fall for Matheson after ranking as a top-25 prospect in the world a year ago. His case is rather muddy. He gets another highly positive scouting report in this year's Future Watch. He's compared to Brian Campbell for his skating, and Matheson rates as the Panthers' No. 1 developmental prospect. Why the drop, then? For one, he hasn't been as good with Boston College this year as he was last year. Noah Hanifin's outstanding freshman play, plus the presence of Matheson's Eagles and Panthers teammate Ian McCoshen, have overshadowed Matheson a bit. This doesn't look like a case of bias among our panel toward an obscure hockey market like Florida, as Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad rated sky-high in Future Watch during their pre-NHL days.

4. Jamie Oleksiak, D, Dallas Stars (-38)Last year: 38thThis year: out

It's a red flag when you're a 6-foot-7, 250-pound defenseman and your coach wants "more physical play from you." Oleksiak has the mammoth frame but isn't using it to the best of his potential. Stars coach Lindy Ruff wants Oleksiak to punish opponents more and to move the puck quicker. Dallas had high expectations when they took him 14th overall in 2011. He's running out of time to meet them since he's being pushed by a glut of emerging Stars D-men, including Patrik Nemeth, Jyrki Jokipakka and Julius Honka, not to mention John Klingberg, who leapfrogged Oleksiak altogether and became a full-time NHLer.

It's bizarre Future Watch progression to go from first-round pick in 2013 to top-40 prospect in 2014 to unranked in 2015. Shouldn't Shinkaruk, 20, be ascending, not descending? Hip surgery last year is largely to blame. The smallish scoring forward has even been a healthy scratch with Travis Green's AHL Utica Comets at one point this season. He improved in the New Year, however, not on the scoresheet yet, but in his ability to go to the net and do what his coaches want him to. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Shinkaruk back among the risers next year.

Erixon's fall his been precipitous to say the least. He's 24, and his puck-moving skills have made him a Future Watch regular for years. But its a damning indictment to see a 2009 first-rounder traded three times, from Calgary to New York, New York to Columbus and Columbus to Chicago. Worse yet, the Hawks waived Erixon. He's now Toronto property.

He's big and well-rounded but doesn't play to his size. His path to the pros depends a lot on what the Pens want to do with pending unrestricted free agents Paul Martin and Christian Ehrhoff this summer.

Dansk was a borderline first-rounder in 2012, which is no small feat for a goalie today. He was a powerhouse in net for Sweden at the world juniors. Now he's the Jackets' third-ranked goalie prospect behind Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo. Dansk has tumbled out of the Jackets' top 10. He's an athletic goalie, but his positioning and consistency need work. Still, 21 is downright baby-faced in goalie years. Dansk has time to rebound.

The big, strong Samuelsson brings good positioning and grit to the table. His skating grades out poorly, though, and the Coyotes aren't satisfied with his conditioning. The fitness assessment comes from GM Don Maloney, so Samuelsson must get cracking.

Most of the highly ranked Future Watch prospects have a healthy amount of offense in their games. The points haven't come yet for Hartman as a pro. He isn't scoring much with AHL Rockford. He still grades out as a handy checking forward someday. There's a home for him in Chicago's lineup. They even called him up for a five-game taste in February.

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ECHL defenseman Anthony Calabrese is “lucky to be alive” after a “careless, reckless” hit, and Tyler Murovich, who delivered the blow, has been given a 12-game suspension as a first-time offender.

There are few plays scarier than seeing a player hit from behind and sent headfirst into the boards. That kind of play is made that much harder to watch when knowing the severity of the injury suffered.

During an ECHL contest on Nov. 24 between the Norfolk Admirals and Atlanta Gladiators, ECHL veteran Tyler Murovich delivered an incredibly dangerous shove to the back of Anthony Calabrese, a 24-year-old defenseman who’s only 12 games into his ECHL career.

The result of the hit was frightening. Calabrese was left laying face down on the ice, near motionless. The Admirals rearguard would eventually be placed on a stretcher, taken from the ice and transported to hospital.

That may seem harsh to some given that Murovich is a first-time offender, but given the severity of Calabrese’s injury, it actually seems like a somewhat light punishment.

As a result of the hit, Calabrese suffered broken C7 and T1 vertebrae. In simpler terms, he broke both his neck and his back. Oh, and he also punctured his lung. In fact, Calabrese told The Virginian-Pilot’s Jim Hodges that doctors told the young center that he’s “lucky to be alive.”

“It was a miracle, and they say I’m going to make a full recovery,” Calabrese told Hodges. “It’s going to be a long road, but I’d rather be alive than be in a wheelchair the rest of my life.”

What helped Calabrese escape with his life, he told Hodges, was advice he had gotten early in his career from a high school coach. Calabrese was taught that if he was ever going into the boards head first to lift his chin and turn to the side in an attempt to avoid taking the brunt of the impact with the top of his head.

“That’s honestly the only thing that registered in my mind when I was going in: at the last minute, pick my head up,” Calabrese told Hodges. “I remember picking my head up and turning it to the right.”

Thankfully, doctors told Calabrese that he can eventually return to the ice and that the injuries suffered from the hit won’t cost him his career. His spinal cord, he told Hodges, wasn’t damaged due to the hit. And, as hard as it may be to believe, doctors said it was the “best possible break” in a situation such as Calabrese’s.

Blackhawks emergency backup Eric Semborski gets his own rookie card

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Blackhawks emergency backup Eric Semborski gets his own rookie card

Eric Semborski landed himself the opportunity of a lifetime when he strapped on the pads as an emergency backup for the Blackhawks, and now Topps has commemorated the moment with a Semborski trading card.

Eric Semborski’s dream came true when he stepped on the ice as an NHL goaltender, albeit an emergency backup, on Dec. 3, and now he’s got an incredible piece of memorabilia to show for it.

Just days after the 23-year-old made his rookie debut, trading card company Topps has unveiled the official Eric Semborski rookie card. That’s right: the 23-year-old has his very own trading card. The card is part of Topps’ NOW series, which features milestone or memorable moments and are made available shortly after the achievement.

Semborski’s stint as the Blackhawks emergency goaltender came due to regular starting netminder Corey Crawford was sent to hospital to undergo an appendectomy. The Blackhawks were scrambling to find a replacement for Crawford, and a backup for Scott Darling, when they started asking around to find an emergency amateur netminder to fill in.

Semborski, a former goaltender at Temple University, was working with children at the Flyers’ practice facility when he was called to sign on for emergency duty. Hilariously, Semborski wore a Blackhawks No. 50 jersey — which most will recognize as Crawford’s number — when he took the ice for warmup. Of the chance to stop NHL shots in warmup, Semborski said it was the best moment of his life.

Possibly the only thing that could have made the moment better was if Semborski actually got into the game and, as it turns out, that was very nearly the case. Post-game, Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville said that had the Flyers scored on the empty net to stretch their lead in the Saturday afternoon contest, he would have thrown Semborski into the net for the final minute of the outing.

As for the card, there’s no chance it will be worth anything near what a Connor McDavid rookie card will be worth in a decade, but it’s certainly a nice piece of merchandise for the one-day NHL netminder.

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Fans want to see NHL players play at the Olympics, the players want to play in the tournament, but the NHL’s Board of Governors still needs some convincing.

If the NHL is going to send players to the Olympics, the NHL’s Board of Governors are going to need some convincing and they’re going to need it in rather short order.

It was reported around the World Cup of Hockey that the NHL had a mid-January deadline to decide on Olympic participation for the 2018 PyeongChang Olympics. And at the first day of Board of Governors meetings in Palm Beach, Fla., little more than a month from that deadline, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman didn’t make it sound as though the situation is all that positive in terms of the world’s best players heading to the tournament.

One of the sticking points for the Board of Governors, according to Bettman, was the impact the Olympics have on the NHL product.

"There are a lot of owners, clubs, over the years that have been very concerned about what Olympic participation does to the season, what it does to the players in terms of injuries, not just to those that go but having a compressed schedule can make the players more tired, more wear and tear, and the potential for injury is greater,” Bettman said, according to NHL.com’s Dan Rosen.

Even still, Bettman approached the IIHF’s assurance of covering the costs with skepticism and a warning that it doesn’t mean Olympic participation is green lit.

"We have been very clear to Rene Fasel at the IIHF and to Don Fehr at the [NHL] Players' Association that if the expenses aren't being covered, the League isn't paying for them and there really is nothing to talk about," Bettman said, according to Rosen. "Just because somebody may decide to pay for them, and to this point we don't actually know where that stands, that doesn't mean that it's a go.”

Bettman added that he wasn’t sure there was “even the money to cover what's been covered in the last Olympics,” regardless of what the IIHF would say. And even if everything fell in line for an Olympic participation proposal in the coming days, weeks or month, Bettman said it will still need the approval of the Board of Governors in order for the players to be sent to South Korea for the tournament.

"If there is something at some point to take to the Board, it will need an affirmative vote of the Board of Governors," Bettman said, according to Rosen. "I think it's fair to say that there is some strong negative sentiment in the room, but nothing was decided today.”

Down Goes Brown: The NHL’s five most confusing players

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Down Goes Brown: The NHL’s five most confusing players

From big off-season acquisitions struggling to oft-maligned players proving their worth, the NHL has its fair share of players who are hard to figure out.

I'm still confused.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the NHL's five most confusing teams, at least from my perspective. These were the teams that I just couldn't figure out. Were they good? Bad? Somewhere in the middle? I'd spent the season trying to work it out, and come up empty.

As it turned out, I wasn't alone. More than a few readers confessed to being confused by those teams too, not to mention several others. It was like having a support group. A support group of confused hockey fans, all watching the games unfold with their heads tilted like a puppy seeing a toilet flush for the first time.

Well, today I'm going to call another meeting of the confused hockey fan network. But this time, we're not looking at teams. No, today we're going to dive into some specific players that have me perplexed. In most of these cases, I thought I had a handle on things. But now I'm not so sure.

Maybe you can help me out. Or maybe you're just as confused as I am. Either way, I think it will be good for my soul to admit that I just can't figure these guys out.

Brian Elliott

What I thought I knew: After an up-and-down start to this NHL career, Elliott had settled in to a predictable pattern with the Blues. He'd play well. He'd post strong numbers, sometimes even league-leading ones. And then, just when push came to shove, the Blues would lose faith in him and hand the starter's job to someone else. Maybe it was the backup. Maybe it was a pricey trade acquisition. Maybe it was even a semi-retired legend, in a move we'd all agree to just pretend never happened. But time and time again, the Blues had no faith in Elliott.

And I was convinced that they were wrong. This was the classic case of a team over-thinking things, or maybe letting dressing room politics or a faith in intangibles override basic logic. The numbers didn't lie: Elliott was one of the best goalies in the league. And when the Flames nabbed him at a discount in the offseason, I was sure that they'd found their starter.

Where I'm at now: Sitting around wondering what happened. Which is also where Elliott finds himself most games these days.

Chad Johnson has been a great story, and you can't blame the Flames for riding the hot hand. Elliott got off to a bad start, and when you're a young team that hasn't earned a ton of self-confidence quite yet, you can't let yourself fall too far out of the race. The Flames are being smart here.

But… Elliott is still good, right? Every goalie has the occasional slump, so we can't panic over 13 games. Then again, Elliott's never really done much outside of Ken Hitchcock's goalie factory, and the Blues still didn't believe in him. Did they know something that the rest of us, including the Flames, somehow missed?

Bobby Ryan

What I thought I knew: Remember when Ryan was left off of Team USA in 2014, partly because Brian Burke didn't think he could spell "intense"? What a ridiculous snub that was. Hey guys, 30-goal scorers in their prime don't exactly grow on trees.

Well, sure, I imagine Senator fans were already in the loop on this one. But it feels like the rest of us have been slow to realize that Ryan just hasn't been the same player in Ottawa that he was in Anaheim. His best year since the 2013 trade was only 23 goals, and that was back in 2013-14. This year, he has just three goals through 21 games.

In hindsight, maybe we should have seen that coming. Ryan was 26 when the trade went down, and in today's NHL, that's already past the peak of many forwards. But the Senators clearly thought they were getting an elite player with some big seasons left in him – remember, we're just two years removed from them handing him a $50-million contract.

Ryan's had to overcome some tough hurdles in his life, including the loss of his mother this summer. It still feels like he could rebound and reclaim his status as a first-line player. But if not, the budget-conscious Senators may be stuck with an ugly-looking contract that they can't really afford.

Tyler Bozak

What I thought I knew: Any Leaf fan who was paying attention was in on this one. Sure, Bozak had put up some decent stats over the years, but he'd done it as Phil Kessel's sidekick, inexplicably getting all the playing time with Toronto's best player and reaping the rewards. And even then, his numbers had been just OK, never topping 50 points in a season and struggling in his own end.

It was a classic case of a superstar propping up an also-ran. And once Kessel was shipped out of town, we'd see the real Tyler Bozak.

Where I'm at now: Hey, it turns out the real Tyler Bozak is pretty good.

Not "first line center" good. Certainly not "team MVP" good, despite some of the sillier hype from the Kessel era. But his production hasn't cratered without his superstar wingman. In fact, it's improved slightly, and he's on pace for the most productive season of his career this year.

Maybe he's benefitting from the Leafs finally having some depth at center. Maybe he's embracing his role as the "dad figure" on one of the league's youngest rosters. Or maybe he was just better than I thought he was all along.

John Klingberg

What I thought I knew: He's easily one of the best young offensive defensemen in the league.

Where I'm at now: Pretty much the same place. Which is why what's going on in Dallas right now is so hard to figure out.

Last month, Lindy Ruff made Klingberg a healthy scratch, and everyone went "What?" Then we found out that Klingberg had missed a team meeting, so fair enough — the rules apply to everyone. But then last week he was scratched again, this time for performance reasons.

And sure enough, he hasn't been great this year. He's on pace for the worst offensive totals of his career, and he's getting creamed on possession, where he'd previously been very solid. Sure, maybe nobody would look good in front of that Dallas goaltending. And Ruff is carrying eight defenseman, which makes his decisions tougher. But Klingberg really has looked off this year, and with a 98.5 PDO, this isn't all about bad luck and shaky percentages. Something's wrong.

We're talking about a guy who finished sixth in the Norris voting last year, in just his second NHL season. It looked like the Stars had themselves a poor man's Erik Karlsson in the making. Maybe they still do. But this season has turned a sure thing into a major question mark.

Kris Russell

What I thought I knew: No clue. None. He seems like a good guy. Smallish, and without any especially flashy numbers, but he always seemed like a nice underdog story who'd overachieved over the years on a long path towards earning some respect. I usually like those kind of stories.

But over the last few years, Russell has somehow morphed into the poster child for the debate between analytics and old school. And you're not allowed to stake out a middle ground. You have to either think he's the second coming of Scott Stevens, willing his team to victory by sheer force of heart, or you have to think he's hot garbage. Those are your only two options. And you better choose quickly, because as soon as his name get mentioned, everybody is going to start yelling.

Where I'm at now: SO MUCH YELLING!

Honestly, I have no idea. When Russell hit free agency this summer, I thought the big numbers being thrown around were a little ridiculous. So did the league, apparently, since he had to settle for a one-year deal with the Oilers. That seemed like a good fit, and you figured Russell could settle in, put together a decent season, and take another shot at a big UFA payday next year.

No such luck. No, apparently we all have to keep fighting the Great Kris Russell Battle until the end of time. Is he good? Bad? What position does he even play? Nobody remembers.

We have always been at war with Kris Russell. Now pick a side and go yell at somebody about it.

Sean McIndoe has been writing about the NHL since 2008, most recently for ESPN and Grantland. He spends most of his time making jokes on twitter, where you may know him as @downgoesbrown. He appears weekly on TheHockeyNews.com.