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Alonso takes pole in wet qualifying two races in a row

Qualifying Results

Starting Position

1st

Alonso

2nd

Vettel

3rd

Webber

4th

Schumacher

5th

Hulkenberg

6th

Maldonado

6th

Button

8th

Hamilton

9th

di Resta

10th

Raikkonen

11th

Ricciardo

12th

Perez

13th

Kobayashi

14th

Massa

15th

Grosjean

16th

Senna

17th

Rosberg

18th

Vergne

Saturday saw a very unusual qualifying session, with fastest times in each round being set on a different type of tire. Raikkonen was half a second faster in the dry. Hamilton was second in Q1 and half a second quickest on intermediates in Q2. Unfortunately, the McLaren struggles to get heat into the full wet tires, leaving him in 7th. Alsonso took pole with Vettel in second. This is quite incredible, Alonso went two years without topping qualifying and now took pole twice in a row. This may suggest the Ferrari is improving or could speak of Alonso's skill in the rain.

The big factor is rain. Currently dry weather is predicted. If so, Alonso or Vettel are the only realistic bets, with Hockenheim almost always won from front of the grid. Also, other usual race winners will be held up by Hulkenberg and then have to pass Schumacher, giving the Alonso and Vettel a huge advantage. Vettel may have a number of advantages. At Hockenheim, there is little advantage to starting on either side of the track. Also, one stopping at Hockenheim might be the best strategy, to the disadvantage of Ferrari who struggle with the harder tire. It will be close so live betting might be best. However, with a few advantages and slightly higher odds, Vettel is the better bet. Both drivers have odds of 2.1 (3.00) from StanJames
Schumacher would be an outsider bet, usually struggling to keep up with the Red Bull and Ferrari. The Mercedes seems temperamental, such as complete dominance in China and simply falling back from good qualifying in Silverstone. With very high odds of 11/1 (12.00) from 888sport, he might be worth a bet on Hockenheim being a course the Mercedes can deliver pace on.

If it rain then the victory is more open. Alonso seems excellent in the rain so may have an edge over Vettel. Watch Schumacher and Button also, so this may be one for live betting.

3rd

Alonso

Vettel

4th

Schumacher

Perez

5th

Perez

Grosjean

6th

Hulkenberg

Hulkenberg

6th

Rosberg

Ricciardo

8th

Massa

Button

9th

Maldonado

Webber

Grosjean

Raikkonen

11th

Kobayashi

Vergne

Vettel

Massa

13th

Bottas

Kobayashi

Ricciardo

Pic

15th

Raikkonen

Glock

16th

Bianchi

Senna

17th

Vergne

Kovalainen

18th

Petrov

di Resta

19th

Kovalainen

Hamilton

20th

Webber

Alonso

21nd

Pic

Petrov

22nd

Glock

Karthikeyan

23rd

de la Rosa

Schumacher

24th

Clos

de la Rossa

With rain interrupting both practise sessions they only provided limited information about driver potential this weekend. The drenched FP2 can largely be written off, the fastest time was 11 seconds slower than FP1 but the sections of clear running in FP1 has some interesting hints. Button topping the first session with Hamilton close behind is the major surprise. After their recent poor performance, the upgrade package brought to Hockenheim seems to have paid off. Hamilton still looks good for pole with Vettel off the pace during dry running. Button still has high odds after his poor performance but if the upgrades have restored his competitive edge substantial money could be made on a victory at 13/1 (14.00) from StanJames or a podium at 5/1 (6/00) from Ladbrokes. Alonso came 3rd, keeping up the pace of recent races. Pole is unlikely for the Spaniard but he will look to continue his challenges for victory. Red Bull came 12th and 20th but they are just hiding their pace and only FP3 will give information about their potential.

Schumacher timed 4th and Rosberg 7th suggesting they will challenge for a podium and certainly a top six position. Both have 3/2 (2.50) from Bet 365. Perez came 5th, looking very good for a high pay off bet on a podium since likely high tire degradation will work to his advantage, with odds of 32/1 (33.00) from Ladbrokes. Lotus have brought an experimental DRS system but never had much opportunity to test it in FP1. It is unknown if they will use it this race but if they do focus on Lotus for live betting: they usually do better in the race than qualifying and with an experimental system to boot they may pull some surprises if it works.

Proportion your money

The simplest and most important advice comes first: carefully proportion your money across the twenty race season. A truly great drivers like Alonso or Hamilton will struggle to win quarter of the races, making a single large bet on a specific driver winning a specific race highly risky.

Have separate budgets for low risk low reward and higher risk higher reward bets. Low risk bets might initially make a loss and might only start to pay off some way into the season whereas high risk bets might never deliver or could produce an excellent profit the first race. Separate budgets gives a good indication of where you are gaining or losing money and helps avoid despair if numerous higher risk bets have not paid off.

Bet on different drivers

Over the last few years most race wins have gone to one of five different drivers. 2012 still has Vettel, Webber, Alonso, Hamilton and Button as the main contenders for victory, although unlike previous years challenges for race wins are have come from Mercedes, Lotus, Williams and Sauber. With around twelve drivers as realistic contenders for victory betting upon a single driver is extremely risky.

Assess the field and determine who are the strong contenders and then narrow it down to the three with the best odds. Spread your most money across them to ensure if any win you'll break even or make a small profit. Then pick one of those drivers with the best odds or most likely to win and place additional funds upon him. If your judgement is good there'll be a large pay out and only if none of those three win do you lose money. By focusing upon drivers who qualified well losses should only occur if someone further down the grid produces an unexpected and unlikely victory.

Race and championship winner are not the best bets.

Bets on race winner and especially the championship are by far the most popular but are not the best value. These categories certainly deliver the excitement so are worth betting on to add enjoyment but whilst profit is possible less interesting bets will consistently pay off better. The problem is that bets on the winner are very specific, only one car takes the prize. By contrast, a car can finish anywhere from 1st to 6th and still pay when betting on a top six finish. Also, multiple cars finishing top six means multiple pay offs when spreading bets across different cars, unlike multiple bets on 1st place.

Bets on podiums, top six and top ten have have lower profit but far lower risk than race winner. For example, Alonso has won 17% of races since 2010 compared with Alonso finishing top six 79% of races. Statistically, 4/1 (5.00) will pay off for Alonso race victories but such high odds are rare whereas 1/4 (1.25) will pay off for top six and can easily be found. Part of the skill of F1 betting is knowing when not to follow the statistics, such as working out which factors mean Hamilton looks good for victory for a particular race during a season dominated by Vettel. A knowledgeable F1 better might get such statistics defying hunches once every second or third race and are worth going on but for races without those hunches bet by following the statistics.

Betting on odds VS winner

Some people focus upon correctly picking the winner whatever the odds whilst others bet upon drivers they doubt will win but are good bets because of their underrated odds. Generally, only small bets are recommended for either of these situations. Vettel will have very low odds for victory when sitting on pole, making profits small but high losses if someone else wins. Kobayashi might have odds of 50 to 1 for victory so expect to lose money season after season hoping for a single big payout that probably will not come. Both these bets are easy ways to lose money so limit the size of the bet.

The best bets are combinations of these, drivers who could realistically could win but with underrated odds.You might not have complete faith in a Hamilton victory from 3rd position on the grid but it is certainly possible and will pay off well at 4/1 (5.00). For multiple bets, on this hypothetical grid, place a medium bet on Vettel's 1/1 (2.00), place a smaller bet on Alonso's 2/1 (3.00) and the highest for Hamilton. If Vettel or Alonso wins no losses are made and Hamilton's victory gives the big pay out. Since races are usually won from 3rd or higher, place a bet on all three but bet most on whoever you feel the bookies has underrated. Unless the 4th place man wins, this is low risk and potentially high pay out betting.

Follow trends not feelings

All F1 fans get emotional involved, both about driver they like and dislike. It is difficult not to feel strong positive or negative emotions when Alonso wins from starting 11th position or if Vettel wins every second race a season. However, these emotions conceal trends and are not a good basis for bets. For examples, for years now the Red Bulls looks by far the best car and therefore good for safe bets for victory. However, Vettel has never won from below starting 3rd and Webber from below starting 2nd. No matter how almighty Vettel can look, never bet on his victory when starting below 4th position. Perception of Vettel's dominance means Vettel starting 4th will have lower odds than Hamilton starting 3rd, a position Hamilton has often won from. Trends are especially useful for low risk, low reward betting. Everyone remembers Alonso's incredible victories but this conceals that Alonso has finished top six 89% of the time since 2011. Money can certainly be made by Alonso's victories but more money can be made from Alonso consistently finishing 6th.

Check different websites

There is no point in placing a bet at 2/1 (3.00) if another website has odds for that driver at 3/1 (4.00). No one website consistently offers better odds but with over ten F1 betting website to choose from often one website can offer substantially better odds for specific bets. Betting websites gain more customers by having higher odds than their competitors, meaning they have an incentive to make odds attractive to customers.

2012 has seen substantially more diverse race results than 2011 or 2010. During those two years, Hamilton, Button, Vettel, Webber and Alonso took all the victories and 89% of the podium places. This year, Mercedes and Williams have won races whilst Lotus and Sauber have reached the podium. Despite this, four drivers have broken away as realistic contenders for the championship.
Alonso is leading the championship and is the current favourite. Many consider him the current greatest driver, this may be true but he probably does not have the car to take the world championship this year. Alonso's win in Malaysia was due to Hamilton's unlucky slow pitstop whilst Alonso would not have won Valencia without Vettel retiring from mechanical issues. Without that luck, Alonso would currently be the 3rd in the championship. However, there are suggestions the Ferrari's pace is improving. Silverstone was Alonso's first pole position in two years and Massa achieved his best result this season. In both 2011 and 2010 Alonso was more successful in the second half of the season, possibly because the tracks suits his driver style but more likely because Ferrari develop their cars well across as the season progresses. If Alonso's and Massa's qualifying improves, the chances are Alonso has the car he needs and will win the championship. If not, Alonso probably cannot win this year. A few races in and Hamilton had a couple of pole positions, good race performance and looked favourite for the championship. Mistakes in the pit lane and unlucky penalties cost him race victories but if Hamilton could have a few incident free races he'd probably be leading the championship. Unfortunately, Hamilton has not matched that early performance, with only one (disqualified) pole position and one no podiums beyond his win in the last seven races. Although some bad luck remains, even had Maldonado not crashed into him Hamilton would have only finished fourth in Valencia. The problem may lie with the Mercedes as Button's recent difficulties suggests the car is currently weak. Without signs from Hamilton and Button that the car is capable of competing with Ferrari and Red Bull then Hamilton does not look good for the championship. There is very little between both Red Bull drivers currently. Webber has out qualified Vettel although has less pole positions, Webber has more wins and more championship points. Taking bad luck into account, Vettel would probably have five or ten more points than Webber currently. Both drivers have improved since the first three races, Vettel found his skill at setting pole laps whilst Webber has stopped consistently coming 4th and instead won races. Being so evenly matched currently, both drivers will likely go into the final races of the year neck and neck. With neither driver having an edge over the other but with Webber having near double odds compared to Vettel, a bet on Webber for world champion is by far better value for money. The most likely winner will probably be a Red Bull. Hamilton's car no longer seems able to win the world championship whilst Alonso's car never looked capable of winning the championship. However, the Ferrari seems to be gaining pace and Mercedes are currently developing their car. Watch their team mates for signs that their car has improved. There is nothing currently between Vettel and Webber but with two world championship it is understandable why Vettel has lower odds. Bets on Hamilton are currently not recommended. Bets on Alonso are quite speculative since they are probably dependent upon Ferrari developing the car. Bets on Vettel and Webber are safest but Webber is the best value for money having usually double odds over Vettel.

Double world champion Sebastian Vettel was expected to dominate this season but is yet to repeated his success of 2011. Vettel seems equal to Alonso, Hamilton and Webber this year but expectation after last season usually ensure lowers odds than his competitors. With less wins than Alonso and Webber, with equal pole positions to Hamilton and not leading the championship, Vettel's substantially lowers are not value for money. Vettel has been improving lastly by picking up some pole positions and was unlucky not to win in Valencia but he needs a string of victories to justify his current odds.
Vettel's strength is qualifying but this is well known so good odds are unlikely. Surprisingly, Vettel has the worst ratio of pole positions to wins in the entire field since 2010. Vettle has a pole to win ratio of 61%, Webber 78% whilst Hamilton, Button and Alsonso have more wins in the last three years than pole positions. A pole for Vettel is no guaranteed pay off for victory. Vettel has never won from below starting 3rd place so if Vettel is out of position after qualifying, his high odds will likely not pay off. Vettel's retirements from mechanical failures mean he is not good for low risk low profit bets on top six and top ten finishes. With such high expectations which haven not been delivered, Vettel is probably the worst driver to bet on except for qualifying.
Vettel is second favourite to win the world championship. However, with Alonso, Hamilton and Webber still strong contenders, any odds below 3/1 (4.00) on Vettel is risky. The championship will probably go down to the last race so betting upon a driver with higher odds is wiser.
Vettle
2012
Since 2010
Won
1
17
Podiums
3
30
Pole
3
28
Webber is currently the most underrated driver but this may not last. After Valencia Webber was 2nd in the championship yet was offered a massive 13/1 (14.00) odds, whilst at Silverstone Webber had worst odds from 2nd position than Vettel starting two places down. This is partially understandable given how badly Webber did compared to Vettel in 2011. However, F1 is not a static sport. Vettel has not repeated his dominance whilst Webber seems to have fixed his bad race starts plaguing the 2011 season. After Silverstone, Webber has more wins and more points than Vettel, making Webber at least equal to Vettel. Despite this, Webber often has double the odds than Vettel, making Webber a far superior bet. Even if Vettel does start dominating the second half of 2012, double the odds for Webber would still be a good bet. Webber's only weakness compared to Vettel is qualifying, with a third less pole positions since 2010. Although the difference is less, Webber also usually has slightly higher odds than Alonso and Hamilton despite being just as competitive. This makes Webber excellent value for money.
Webber has never won from lower than qualifying 2nd, so out of place bets will likely not pay off. Whilst he has made the podiums in over a third of the races since 2010, this year Webber often misses out on podiums by one place. This is probably just due to chance and Webber should be regularly making the podium. Webber is an extremely consistent driver over the last two years, having finished top 10 in all but 3 races and finished top 6 in all but 2. This makes him excellent for consistent low odds betting.
The world championship is too close to call currently. Webber, Vettel, Hamilton and Alonso are all equally strong contenders. However, Webber is usually given the highest odds despite Vettel and Hamilton being over one race victory from leading the world championship. Equally credible as the other to win the championship yet with lowest odds, Webber is the best bet for the drivers championship.
Webber
2012
Since 2010
Won
2
7
Podiums
2
22
Pole
1
9

The 10th Race of 2012, German Grand Prix at Hockenheim

Previous Winners

2011

Nurburgring

2010

Alonso

2009

Nurburgring

2008

Hamilton

2007

Nurburgring

2006

Schumacher

2005

Alonso

2004

Schumacher

2003

Montoya

2002

Schumacher

The German GP alternates each year between Hockenheim and Nurbergring. F1 last visited Hockenheim back in 2010, so there is much less data about past performances than usual. The 2010 race was dominated by Ferrari with Vettel 3rd and the McLarens after him. Alonso and Hamilton have won twice here but no other current driver than Schumucher has been victorious here.

Hockenheim is a high speed course so expect the Mercedes to be strong and Red Bull to be less competitive than usual. The sweeping section of track between turn three and turn four is especially hard upon tires, working to the advantage of Button and Perez who usually get more life out their tires than most drivers. This is the first race at Hockenheim since Pirelli became the tire manufacturer. The tire degradation might mean drivers will spend more time on the harder tire, to the disadvantage of Ferrari who cannot get the hard tire to work well.

Seven of the last eight races have been won from the front row of the grid. Whilst the tire situation might change this it probably is not worth gambling upon. Restricting bets on race winner to the drivers on pole and P2 is recommended. Wait until qualifying has taken place before making bets on victory unless you are confident about who will take P1 and P2 on the grid.

Hamilton looks best for pole position. Having set the fastest time in qualifying an equal number of times as Vettel this season, both look on equal form. However, the Red Bull is slightly hampered by the high speed nature of Hockemheim whilst Hamilton has a good record here. Hamilton has odds of 5/1 (6.00) from William Hill and Vettel has odds of 2/1 (3.00) from Ladbrokes. With double the odds of Vettel, Hamilton is by far better value for money.

For an outsider bet, Perez for a podium might pay off. Both Perez's podiums came at high speed circuits and Perez's speciality of looking after his tires will give him a major edge is tire degradation becomes an important factor. 32/1 (33.00) from Ladbrokes are excellent odds.