Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Iron ore prices will be higher this
year and in 2014 than forecast in July as global manufacturing
improves and China’s metal imports rebound, while the outlook
for oil was raised on supply disruptions, the World Bank said.

Iron ore is expected to average $134 a dry metric ton this
year and $135 a ton in 2014, up from a July prediction of $120
and $125, respectively, the report showed. The World Bank stuck
to an outlook for iron ore prices to average $145 a ton in 2025.

China’s economy expanded 7.8 percent in the third quarter,
from 7.5 percent in the second quarter, and its iron-ore imports
rose to a record 74.6 million tons in September on demand for
steel, customs data show. The iron-ore market is the biggest
seaborne commodity traded after oil.

“Prospects for the metal market depend importantly on
Chinese demand,” the World Bank wrote. “If robust supply
trends continue and weaker-than-anticipated demand growth
materializes, prices could follow a path considerably lower than
the baseline presented in this outlook.”

The outlook for crude in 2013 was raised to $105 a barrel
from a July estimate of $100.70 a barrel, while the forecast for
next year was raised to $105.70 from $99.60 a barrel. The oil
price is a weighted average of West Texas Intermediate, Brent
and Dubai, according to the report.

“The recent uptick in oil prices reflected production
declines by Libya and Iraq, a loss of 1 million barrels a day
each and, less so, fears that the Syrian conflict may spread to
the Gulf and cause major disruption in oil supplies,” it said.

Oil Forecast

The World Bank expects oil to average $97 a barrel in 2025
on growing supplies as well as substitution away from oil.

The forecast for Australian coal prices was cut to $85 a
ton this year and $88 a ton in 2014, from $90 and $91 predicted
in July, respectively. Aluminum may average $1,800 a ton in 2013
and $1,850 next year, down from a previous outlook of $1,900 a
ton for this year and $2,100 the next.

Aluminum stocks have been rising since the end of 2008 and
remain near a 10-year high, according to the bank. Metal prices
as a whole are expected to slip 8 percent this year on abundant
supplies and weakening demand, based on the report.

“Most price risks are on the downside and depend mostly on
the path of the Chinese economy,” the World Bank said.

The bank cut its forecast of 2013 average corn prices to
$250 a ton from $295, and the outlook for Thai rice to $500 a
ton from $545. Corn is seen at $248 a ton in 2014, down from
$270 previously.