How much is the Brexit 'divorce bill'?

The OBR estimate that the Brexit financial settlement (or
‘divorce bill’) will be £37.1bn falls right in the middle of the £35bn-£39bn
range presented by the Treasury in December.

Most of the money will be paid out
in the first five years after Brexit, but the OBR forecasts that smaller
payments will have to be made until at least 2064.

The OBR emphasises that
there are numerous uncertainties surrounding any estimate of the size of the
bill.

It will have to be paid in euros, so the exchange rate is a significant
factor.

It also depends on assumptions of how long pension liabilities will
last, and of the percentage of proposed EU spending projects that may be
cancelled in the future.

Finally, the estimate assumes that a transition
period after Brexit ends on December 31st 2020, which coincides with
the end of the EU’s current seven-year budget period.

If the transition were to
be extended, the EU would be looking for further financial contributions from
the UK.

Posted at13:3513 Mar

Brexit bill estimate from OBR

Chris Morris

BBC Reality Check

The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that the
UK’s financial settlement with the European Union, which will form part of a
Brexit withdrawal agreement, will cost £37.1bn.

The government had
previously said the financial settlement, often dubbed the ‘divorce bill’,
would cost between £35bn and £39bn.

Most of the money will have to be
paid in the first five years after Brexit, but small amounts will have to be
paid for decades to come.

Working out a final figure for the financial
settlement is based on a series of assumptions – such as the amount that will
have to be spent on pensions in the future, and the percentage of proposed EU
spending projects that could be cancelled in the future.