August 2015 El Niño update: Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious

As of August, NOAA and IRI forecasters are predicting this El Niño will peak in the late fall/early winter with 3-month-average sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region near or exceeding 2.0°C (3.6°F) above normal. If this forecast comes true, it will place the 2015 event among the strongest El Niños in the (admittedly short) 1950-2015 historical record. What would this mean for expected impacts in the United States?

But first, this status update!

Sea surface temperature anomalies (departures from the long-term average) increased in much of the equatorial Pacific during July. The July average in the Niño3.4 region was +1.2°C above normal according to the ERSST monitoring datasets. The atmospheric features observed in the equatorial Pacific region during July show that the El Niño ocean-atmosphere coupling is cranking along: easterly winds near the surface were consistently weaker than normal, as were the westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and satellites saw more clouds than average in the central and eastern Pacific.

The atmospheric response provides not just evidence that El Niño is strengthening, but confidence that it will continue to develop because the weakened near-surface easterly winds allow the surface waters to warm. Another near-surface westerly wind burst occurred in the western Pacific in late July, which will probably further reinforce the reservoir of warmer subsurface waters. The strongest El Niño events have all had very consistent near-surface wind anomalies across the tropical Pacific that lasted through the summer and fall.

Recent average winds near the surface of the tropical Pacific: departure from the 30-year average. Purple shading area indicates where the normally easterly (blowing from east to west) winds are weaker than normal. CPC image.

How much does strength matter to El Niño impacts?

El Niño is a climate pattern located in the tropical Pacific, so it doesn’t affect U.S. weather directly. Rather, it changes the larger-scale flow or circulation of the atmosphere. Warmer tropical Pacific waters release more heat to the atmosphere, causing more rising air and storminess in the central and eastern tropics. The rising air moves north (and south) away from the tropics, traveling to the mid-latitudes, where it shifts the North Pacific jet stream farther southward and eastward. Movement and extension of the jet stream can bring more storms to the United States, and change the seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns. For a great explanation of the way this works, check out Tony’s post.

The point of mentioning this is that there are a lot of complex mechanics behind how El Niño affects U. S. weather. There is a domino effect that arises from the warmer surface waters in the tropical Pacific, and small changes in how later dominos fall can ultimately determine exactly what will happen over the U.S. While we have more confidence in general impacts over the U.S. in an El Niño because of the shifts in the jet stream, they’re not guaranteed, because the ultimate result will also depend on factors (chaos & other climate patterns) that are not predictable months in advance and can also impact the jet stream and large scale atmospheric flow.

This is why we keep saying that El Niño “tilts the odds” for weather and climate impacts. For example, in any random non-ENSO year, the chances that southern California will receive above- normal, near-normal, or below-normal rainfall in winter (December – February) are equal: 33.3% above normal, 33.3% near normal, and 33.3% below normal. During a strong El Niño year, these odds might shift to, say, 60% chance of above, 30% chance of near normal, and 10% chance of below. (This is just an example, not an official forecast!)

An example of how a strong El Niño could shift the odds for the amount of seasonal precipitation. Official outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center are available here.

In other words, even a strong El Niño is not a sure-fire drought-buster for California (Tom wrote about this last year; and Mike covered it as well), so it’s not time to stop conserving water, especially given how entrenched this drought is (i.e. it will likely take more than one good year to erase). However, a strong El Niño does increase the chance of more precipitation overall during the winter, and also brings the potential for extreme rainfall. This may help alleviate the drought, but also can also lead to mudslides and flooding.

So at the Climate Prediction Center we’re not spending a lot of time debating about if El Niño Bruce Lee will be the strongest El Niño in history, or the second-strongest, or the third, etc. A strong event increases the probability that the U.S. will experience weather and climate impacts, but the strength of the event does not map directly on to the strength of the impacts.

Winter precipitation (December-February) in 1982-83 and 1965-66—two strong El Niño events—compared to the 1981-2010 average. The winter of 1982-83 showed the "classic" wet signal that El Niño often brings to California, but the winter of 1965-66 did not. Maps by NOAA Climate.gov, based on NCEI climate division data provided by the Physical Sciences Division at NOAA ESRL.

We have a relatively confident forecast for a strong event, and this provides long-range forecasters with information they can use to develop their seasonal forecasts. So, although there are no guarantees, the odds nonetheless really are tilted in specific directions in various parts of the U.S. as far as winter climate is concerned. A significant El Nino like this one provides an uncommon opportunity for people to anticipate the climate tendency well in advance of the main impact season.

A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Niño, La Niña, and its impacts.

Disclaimer:

The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker and Tom Di Liberto (contractors to CPC), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and Rebecca Lindsey (contractor to NOAA Climate Program Office), with periodic guest contributors. Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself.

Comments

Hi, 1) What effects are expected with this El Nino due to the warm NE Pacific and the RRR that seems mirrored by the warm Indian Ocean influence on El Nino for Australia? Has this happened before and is part of current predictions? 2) Are maps similar to above available to public at some NOAA site? Thanks for the excellent discussions.

The latest state-of-the-art models are run with global sea surface temperatures (including Blob and warm Indian ocean) and most of them are still providing El Nino-like impacts over the United States. Because the models include these features, at this point, we are not projecting that the Blob and warm Indian Ocean would substantially disrupt the El Nino signal. Of course, keep in mind this winter could also be influenced by other, less predictable features like the AO/NAO and PNA. El Nino only allows forecasters to potentially "explain" a certain amount of rainfall or temperature variability, which is why we never guarantee these impacts.

Earlier on this blog, we posted an article by Dennis Hartmann ( LINK ) who discussed a possible tropical Pacific link with the Ridiculously Reslient Ridge (RRR) over the U.S. The tropics now have a very different pattern because of El Nino and, so as a result, it is more likely that the the RRR will weaken as we get into the winter.

I'm curious how the persistent blob of warm water west of Baja California might play off the effects of El Nino this year. It looks pretty different than previous strong El Nino events. Is there any modeling on that?

It dawns on me, after my first message was inadvertently sent too early, that you are talking about waters WEST of BAJA, and I am talking about waters EAST of BAJA, in the Sea of Cortez (they should really rename that sea, given the nasty behavior of Cortez on the indigenous peoples. I also wanted to note, that, at his time, I have no model for the weather patterns given this anomaly, but I am studying the matter, and am sure that a predictable pattern can be discerned from the data generated by the careful, thorough weather service this country operates, despite their rather dubious claim that El Nino does NOT affect US weather directly. When they say that, I point to this. The extreme temps in Ariz, NM, Southern Cal, and Eastern Oregon, and Washington State, wile the Northern portions might be an indirect effect, the Ariz, and NM high temps are almost certainly the direct result of over-heated water in the Gulf of Cortez as a result of ENSO.
What confuses me is the low pressure and monsoons in India. Aren't they supposed to stop when ENSO starts up? It is good that they are continuing, as Indian agriculture depends on the monsoons. No Monsoon, no Dewali.

For more local impacts, you might consider seeking out your local NWS office for more specific information. At CPC there is a collection of large-scale El Nino impacts and diagrams which you can review by clicking HERE (though please note the box and whisker links are more regionally focused).

Also, you can access the CPC seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks HERE . These are updated on the third Thursday of every month. At this time, there is a very slight tilt toward above-average precpitation for the Bay area, but this may change as we move closer to the event. Also keep in mind these maps show shading that reflects probabilities (% chance of) of the *favored* category, so there are still chances for near or below average precpitation.

You mentioned Tony's post from May of last year. His 2nd figure shows rainfall patterns from El Nino conditions. Some of the time periods he shows (e.g. July to Sept in equatorial Africa, June to Sept in northern India, June to Sept in region of Chile) are well advanced. Just wondering if we're starting to see any of these rainfall patterns yet. Thanks.

How will the warm water in the north/central Pacific as well as the threat of the continued Ridiculously Resilient Ridge off the CA coast affect any weather patterns of El Nino? A strong El Nino is fine and well, but if it gets pushed far North or South by these anomalies, then it really doesnt matter to the state of CA...

I applaud your efforts to communicate the developing El Niño and its possible impacts into the public eye. However, I am deeply concerned with the wanton naming of ENSO events.

Naming El Niño events presents a magnificent distraction and promotes confusion. There are already several names being tossed around by various government groups; how is the layperson supposed to know that the same phenomenon is being referred to? Hurricanes are named according to a set of agreed upon rules, but I see none of these being applied to the case in point. Do you plan to name every El Niño (and La Niña) event since the formation of the Pacific Ocean ~750 million years ago? That is going to be hard to keep track of! I would suggest sticking to current meteorological conventions and maintain references to ENSO events by the years in which they occurred, i.e., 1982/83. Now, if you can substantiate via copious peer-reviewed literature, a reason for breaking the convection, that naming events helps broaden public understanding of physical processes, for example. I am all for naming them.

One last thought, by naming ENSO events, this NOAA blog directly contradicts the official NOAA National Weather Service statement that the NWS does not name winter storms (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_storm_naming_in_the_United_States). Applying the same reasoning to ENSO phases appears logical. Naming winter storms or ENSO phases does not correspond to the set of rules applied to hurricanes, so why should it be acceptable to do so here?

Thanks for recognizing the efforts we make in communicating on the ENSO blog. We think it's important to clarify our position given the "Godzilla El Nino" quote by a NASA scientist that has recently made its way into the larger media. When we posted on "Bruce Lee" five weeks ago ( link HERE ), we did so explicitly within the context of poking fun at the obsession with naming weather storms/events/etc. It was meant to be tongue-in-cheek and the ENSO blog team was not seriously proposing that El Ninos should be named. Whether they should be or not is really not our call and we agree that there are logistical challenges with such an idea. Thanks again for commenting and sharing your perspective!

I think I see signs of the atmospheric pattern beating down the persistent high pressure associated with the "Blob." How about you all?

Also, what is the deal with the 0.9 and most recently the 1.0 on the ONI index that is posted with the weekly El Nino update and with the Historical numbers. All the rest of the numbers they show don't correlate very well with that at all. It looked like the last 3 month period should have been a 1.2 at least. I realize that they are different data sets that get used, but some explanation of what the difference is and why between them would be cool.

Also, does NOAA have anywhere that you can check the Equatorial Southern Oscillation numbers in closer to real time?

To answer your last question first, you can check out the monthly Equatorial Southern Oscillation numbers here or any other numer of indices here.

As for the SST indices, we use the ERSSTv4 for verification and classification purposes (and you can find it in the list of indices at the second link above) which come out once a month. Other SST datasets like the OISST come out every week in addition to monthly and seasonal values. Both use different processes to determine sea surface temperatures which accounts for their differences in Nino3.4 values. ERSSTv4 has a longer record which allows for better comparison to previous events. OISST only goes back to 1981 while ERSSTv4 goes back to 1950.

If you average the monthly ERSSTv4 values, they will equal the seasonal 3-month averages as well.

Why is Winter 57-58 missing from the analogs ? It is clearly the strongest mirror to this event given conditions in the Northern Pacific and the strength (potentially) of this event. It seems that would be a better comparison to make, particularly with ramifications for the S/W and N/E. California did not receive historically high precipitation in that event, but N/E did. The lack of such precip. in California was due to the lack of temperature gradient within the area where El Nino would pipe in moisture. This may be a major Nino, but under conditions which are unique with respect to other global teleconnections not consistent with 65-66 and 82-83. I think you are really missing a key part of this cycle.

Thanks for your question. The 65/66 and 82/83 maps were lifted out of the second graphic in this previous blog post (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/united-states-el-ni%C3%...). That graphic includes all El Niño events of the past 50 years, including the 57/58 that you mention. For this article, we lifted out two strong events with opposite precipitation anomalies becuase we wanted to emphasize the point that in any given year--even a strong El Niño--other random climate influences can overrule the classic wet signal.

If you look at that graphic, it shows that out of the 7 strong events that have occurred since 1950, 6 of them led to wetter than average winters of various magnitudes in CA. But in 65/66, despite the strong El Niño, CA was drier than average. El Niño is about increased probability, not certianty. That was the main point we were tring to convey by only showing the two examples.

I'm not one of the scienitsts blogging here, simply the editor, but i know from previous blog posts that while "analog" forecasting--trying to predict what will happen based on seeimingly similar past events--isn't completely meaningless, it's usefulness has significant constraints. Even seemingly insignificant differences between one event and another can allow the climate system to evolve along two radically different pathways, leading to different outcomes.

And statististically speaking, when you try to pull out a single year as being "most like" the current conditions and try to infer the future based heavily on that one case, you're essentially trying to draw statistical inferences from a sample size of 1. It would be like trying to infer what all dogs look like based on having seen a single dog.

Thanks for your comment. It's one we hear a lot in a variety of contexts. Unfortuantely, your state's vastness, wildness, and low population density go hand in hand with a sparse observational record that makes it much harder to describe historical climate patterns statewide. However, in a blog from last year, MIke Halpert answered a similar question with the following response:

There isn't a well defined precipitation signal over Alaska in any case. However, winters are typically warmer than average over large parts of the state during El Nino years.

Hi. I am from SE Massachusetts. You know the place-- record snow and cold last winter, frozen waves and icebergs on the cape. It kind of looks like the same pattern dumping Alaska's winter on us. Am I interpreting that correctly? Thanks.

Not necessarily. For the latest winter season forecasts, please check out the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal forecast page . For the December-February period, their is no clear indication that conditions are favored to be average, above, or below-normal this winter so there is an equal chance of all three.

Not necessarily. For the latest winter season forecasts, please check out the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal forecast page . For the December-February period, their is no clear indication that conditions are favored to be average, above, or below-normal this winter so there is an equal chance of all three.

We are trying to plan a 5 month sailing trip from the U.S. to the western Caribbean (Mexico, Belize, Guatemala) this winter 2016. How will El Nino affect the weather and surface wind strength? Should we wait another year? Thank you for your knowledgeable input.

The MJO indeed can have a reinforcment/cancellation effect on an El Nino event. For a great intro on the MJO, check out this guest post on the ENSO Blog by Jon Gottschalck.

Depending on where the rising and sinking sections of an MJO event are located, they can be associated with an enhancement or suppression of the trade winds. In some cases, an MJO could enhance the trade winds which would be the exact opposite of what you would expect from an El Nino. Or vice versa.

For the latest winter season forecasts, please check out the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal forecast page . For the December-February period, the latest forecast shows a tilt in the odds to warmer than average conditions for the north central portion of the UNited states with an equal chance for above, below or average conditions across the central US.

Question I know back in 82 83 and 97 98 strong el Nino had colorado with way above norm snows esp in the mountains how will this el Nino effect the colorado winters including the front range also will the Midwest see way above snows during this year's el Nino esp wisconsin missouri or ohio thanks.

Could Someone Help My Wife And I Out To When The 2015 - 2016 Godzilla El Niño Will Hit The State Of Oregon. And When Will People That Live In Portland And Tigard Oregon Start To Fill The "Effects" Of The Godzilla El Niño If So Could You Please Email My Wife And I The Answers To Our Question If You Could Please. Good Day

Thanks for writing. Keep in mind first that "godzilla" or not, El Niño and La Niña are not like a hurricane or major winter storm that will "hit" the West Coast. It's a disruption of the typical temperature and wind circulation across the tropical Pacific, and the side effects are felt "downstream" in the atmosphere. It's like a tree falling across a creek way upstream of where you live. The tree doesn't hit you, but the flow past your house may be stronger or weaker, depending on how the tree blocks the creek's usual course.

That said, based on everything I've learned by editing this blog in the past year, in the US, the impacts of El Niño and La Niña are felt most strongly in the winter, but again the influence is not like the arrival of a hurricane or any other individual weather event. Rather, the influence shows up on the seasonal average temperatures and precipitation.

Dear NOAA: Perhaps this is not a question for Ms. Becker but for your headline writer. Why did you choose the word, Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious, for this post? Seriously. Thank you, and chim-chim cheree.

Dear, NOAA When Should The People That Live In Oregon And Washington Which Is Called The Pacific Northwest Expect To See Effects Of Super El Niño 2015 - 2016. And What Time Period Are We Talking About Do We Start Seeing The Effects At The Beginning Of "Spring" Or At The Beginning Of "Winter". And Will Super El Niño Still Be Around When Spring Of 2016 Comes Around Because I Wrote To Your "COMMENTS" Page Last Night And "Rebecca Lindsy" Sent My Wife And I Or Us A "RE" But She Still Did Not Give Us A Concrete Answer Back To When We That Do Live In The Pacific Northwest Should Expect To See The Super El Niño Of 2015 - 2016 AKA The Godzilla El Niño Of 2015 - 2016 And Should All Of Us That Do Live W The Pacific Northwest And When Should We All Start Running To The Hills. Good Day To All At NOAA. PS: Hope To Get A Concrete Answer Back

Aside from its influence on the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, El Niño and La Niña have little detectable influence on summer climate across the U.S. Instead, their influence is strongest in winter.

Bear in mind, though, that the influence often won't be detectable until winter is over and scienitsts can tally up the seasonal averages. For places that tend to have wetter winters during El Niño, that elevated wetness can be the result of say, a handful more rainy days per month than usual, or somehwat more rain per storm than usual. It doesn't result from the "arrival" of a single mega-rainstorm of some kind.

In other words, El Niño is not a discrete event like a hurricane or a tsunami that will "arrive" or "hit" the West Coast at a single moment in time. You don't need to "head for the hills" to escape it ;-)

As far as the descriptions of the event as "Super El Niño" or even "Godzilla El Niño," I hope you recognize that those are not scientific or official descriptions. They are coloful, memorable phrases that various folks have used informally to talk about this event. As Emily writes above, the current forecasts predict that the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific "ENSO3.4" monitoring region will peak this winter at 2C. Should that come to pass, it will be among the largest El Niño-related temperature anomalies on record, but it wouldn't be the largest: it would be weaker than both the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events. (You can see for yourself here:

Can anyone help me understand the impact on the Galapagos Islands. We are planning a trip there in mid November and are worried about the impact on Marine Life. Will impact be felt in November or is it more likely to be felt in early 2016?

So Rebecca Lindsy When Do You Believe That The People Of The Pacific Northwest Will Start Felling The Blunt Of El Niño. Lindsy Someone Told Us That We In The Pacific Northwest (That Great Super "Godzilla" El Niño 2015 - 2016 Say That It Will Hit The U.S. Pacific Northwest Late-Autumn Or Late-Early Winter. Good Day Rebecca Lindsy & And To All At NOAA Mr. Charles F. & Mrs. Pamala M. Forsyth & Family. {Tuesday, August 18, 2015 11:18am PDT, PST Tigard, Oregon Time

So Rebecca Lindsy When Do You Believe That The People Of The Pacific Northwest Will Start Felling The Blunt Of El Niño. Lindsy Someone Told Us That We In The Pacific Northwest (That Great Super "Godzilla" El Niño 2015 - 2016 Say That It Will Hit The U.S. Pacific Northwest Late-Autumn Or Late-Early Winter. Good Day Rebecca Lindsy & And To All At NOAA Mr. Charles F. & Mrs. Pamala M. Forsyth & Family. {Tuesday, August 18, 2015 11:18am PDT, PST Tigard, Oregon Time

I was plotting Nino3.4 values for several El Ninos since the 1990's taken from the NOAA web site. It struck me that indeed the peak in the El Nino3.4 was right around the end of the year. Hence the who baby Jesus thing. Is there a good physics reason why this is so?

Hi Ismael,
I would have responded to your question earlier had I seen it. A team of us apart of the NASA DEVELOP National Program at NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information worked on a project this summer to determine the precipitation changes that might occur during this El Nino. You can find some of our results on the ArcGIS online mapping application website by searching "ArcGIS Online Pacific Water Resources" or by using this link: http://developarc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=411cce...
You can also find more information about our project at noaa.gov at the link: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/examining-precipitation-patterns-pacific-.... As you will see, we expect drought across many of the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands.

I will be going to Galapagos first two weeks of September 2015. Will there be impacts? I just watched the show on Nat Geo channel, and I really don't want to go if I will see dead sea lions and iguanas from lack of food. Please help me understand impacts in Sep 2015? Thank you.

I was hoping someone could give an explanation as to why El NIno peaks during winter. What changes in the atmosphere/ocean circulation at this time of year so that the Nino3.4 index levels off and then drops.