Shorten's dilemma: ambition vs party loyalty?

Bill Shorten is once again the "turnkey" - as one Labor insider put it - in Labor's dilemma about whether to switch back to Kevin Rudd as leader.

AAP: David Crosling

According to a Labor insider, Bill Shorten is considering orchestrating a leadership switchback to Kevin Rudd in order to make life easier for himself as opposition leader come October. But as Emma Griffiths explains, the move wouldn't be without its risks.

Who would want to be Bill Shorten right now?

The Victorian Right factional leader already wears the tag of "prime ministerial assassin" for his pivotal role in the ouster of Kevin Rudd three years ago (almost to the day). Now he is once again the "turnkey", as one Labor insider put it, in the party's dilemma about whether to switch back.

Shorten offered a tepid "I believe so" on Wednesday on the question of whether Julia Gillard would lead Labor to the election. But he is a man "genuinely torn" about the decision, according to the Labor insider.

The senior Labor insider says polling which shows a "cataclysmic result" for the ALP is resonating with the Workplace Relations Minister - and loudly.

Seats that have always been Labor are turning so viciously that Liberal candidates are poised to win on the primary vote alone; seats considered safe in Labor heartlands in Victoria (Shorten's own state) and South Australia are not safe at all - the heartlands have become hostile badlands.

In focus group testing, participants were shown a mocked-up press release and didn't even get past the first three words - "The Gillard Government..." - before rubbishing whatever proposal it was announcing.

The former party official said it was a total "abandonment of Gillard". As this insider laid it out, the party of Chifley, Whitlam, Hawke and Keating would be reduced to 35 seats - at most. That's barely enough to fill a Greyhound bus.

But, with Kevin Rudd as leader, the numbers improve. The party would probably still lose, but could count on at least 50 to 55 MPs in the Lower House. That argument must be tempting but as this long-time party member posits, "Would Shorten want to be written up again as the architect of another coup?"

The Labor party would also have to overcome the "visceral" hatred of its former leader - Kevin Rudd. As one Labor MP has told ABC Online, "There are people prepared to commit political harakiri to make sure he never comes back."

Playing into all of this are, of course, personal ambitions. Bill Shorten sees himself as a future prime minister and is ready to be opposition leader by October. The long-time Labor member says, "He's got it in his head he can beat Abbott in two terms and be prime minister in six years' time."

"But when you put it to him - can you do that with a start of 35 seats? - he has to think again.

"Whereas 55 seats fits structurally in a two term plan."

If that argument wins out, Shorten's choice is to turn back to the man that frontbenchers denounced in scorching comments during last year's leadership challenge. Rudd would lose the election and so, the thinking goes, Shorten could take over as opposition leader with a healthier starting point.

Bill Shorten is aligned to the Australian Workers' Union, whose national secretary Paul Howes is also so far standing by Gillard. But Howes' personal motives and ambitions need also to be considered. He is regularly touted as a future leader of the ALP and has not hidden his own desire to one day take on the role.

There is one view within the party, according to the insider, that Howes has no interest in an improved position for the ALP in 2013, because he would much rather an "open run" for a seat in the 2016 poll. "He could in fact benefit from the loss in 2013," says the insider. So Shorten also has Paul Howes "breathing down his neck". It's more internal Labor party rivalry in the making.

And on the union front, the leadership is so resigned to losing anyway that it is apparently not at all keen on a Rudd comeback. They're putting more pressure on Shorten and have threatened to withdraw their support if he backs a change. Then, another factor, and a timely one given the current debate about gender politics, is that Shorten would be seen as "doing over a woman".

"Bill has always had a fear that Anne Summers would geld him one day," an insider told the ABC.

With Julia Gillard not one for quitting, and Kevin Rudd still saying he won't challenge, the mechanics of any switchback are the subject of game-planning through multiple scenarios. As for tapping Gillard on the shoulder, as one senior minister told the ABC, "She has Shorten's measure."

But first, Shorten has to decide. It's a dilemma not many would want to face: electoral annihilation versus an ugly mea culpa.