DiNapoli: New York's Fiscal Picture Remains Tied to Pace of Recovery

New York State tax revenues were close to expected levels in July after falling short of estimates in May and June, according to the July Cash Report released today by State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.

"New York's fiscal picture remains tied to the strength of the economic recovery. The economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months and that is making New York's revenue outlook less certain," DiNapoli said. "Our month-to-month collections have been highly variable, and we need to be prepared for surprises, good or bad."

All Funds tax collections of $3.9 billion in July were $2.4 million, less than 0.1 percent above revised Financial Plan projections. Through the first four months of the fiscal year, All Funds tax receipts of $20.7 billion were also slightly more than revised projections but down by 0.8 percent, or $172.4 million, compared to last year. The main factors in the year-over-year decline were the $182 million, or 1.4 percent, drop in personal income tax (PIT) collections and the $42.3 million, or 0.9 percent fall in consumption and use tax revenue. Other taxes increased $16.9 million, or 1.7 percent, year to date.

The General Fund ended July with a balance of $2.4 billion, or $171.2 million lower than projected in the Financial Plan.

Other findings from the July Cash Report include:

General Fund receipts (including transfers from other funds) of $18.9 billion through July were 0.7 percent, or $127.2 million, lower than receipts from the same period last year. General Fund receipts were $38.7 million lower than projections in the Financial Plan. General Fund tax collections totaled nearly $14 billion, reflecting a decrease of $146.7 million, or 1 percent lower than last year for the same period, but essentially meeting recently revised Financial Plan projections.

General Fund Personal Income Tax (PIT) collections through July totaled $9.3 billion a decline of 1.6 percent, or $155.7 million, from last year. Year-to-date PIT collections were $18 million higher than revised Financial Plan projections.

General Fund Consumption and use tax collections decreased 1 percent to $2.9 billion, and were $12.8 million higher than revised Financial Plan projections. General Fund business tax collections of $1.4 billion were $44.6 million, or 3.4 percent, more than collections through the same period last year, and $14.7 million below Financial Plan projections.

All Funds receipts of $39.4 billion were 7.9 percent, or $3.4 billion, lower than last year, primarily reflecting lower federal receipts needed to support the state's administration of federal programs. This largely reflects a decrease in federal receipts of $3.2 billion, or 20.7 percent, primarily due to lower American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) spending as well as $172.4 million in lower tax receipts. All Funds receipts were $537.6 million higher than revised Financial Plan projections, primarily reflecting higher than expected federal receipts ($541.5 million).

General Fund spending (including transfers to other funds) through July of $18.3 billion declined 1.3 percent, or $236 million, over the same period last year. Local assistance grants declined $843 million, or 6.8 percent, to $11.5 billion. Departmental Operations spending declined $191.4 million to $2.6 billion, and General State Charges rose $114.4 million to $1.4 billion compared to the same period last year. General Fund spending was $132.2 million, or 0.72 percent, below Financial Plan projections.

All Funds spending of $36.8 billion decreased 9.4 percent, or $3.8 billion, through the first four months of the fiscal year compared to the same period last year, largely reflecting the end of ARRA stimulus funds as well as timing issues.

The state's finances are generally broken down by two main categories: General Fund and All Funds. The General Fund is the major operating fund of the state and accounts for all receipts that are not required by law to be deposited into another fund. All Governmental Funds includes General, Special Revenue, Debt Service and Capital Projects funds, as well as funds from the federal government.