My AP college football preseason top-25: Florida’s No. 1, naturally

Yep, I’m voting again. The kind folks over at the AP San Francisco bureau invited me back into the fray for another year, and I was honored and thrilled.

The AP preseason poll will be released Saturday, so I thought I should post my ballot (which was due Aug. 3, if you’re wondering).

First, let’s cover a few basics. Some of this is old news, but it’s important enough to repeat:

*** Some voting guidelines, straight from the AP itself:

“Base your vote on performance, not reputation or preseason speculation.”

“Avoid regional bias, for or against. Your local team does not deserve any special handling when it comes to your ballot.”

“Pay attention to head-to-head results and don’t hesitate to make significant changes in your ballot from week to week. There’s no rule against jumping the 16th-ranked team over the eighth-ranked team, if No. 16 is coming off a big victory and No. 8 just lost 52-6 to a so-so team.”

*** The first in-season AP poll will be released Tuesday, Sept. 8, because of Monday games. All other polls will be released on Sunday.

*** My preseason poll is a projection of where I think the teams will finish.

Why take this approach? Follow along, if you will:

Your No. 1 team is your “best” team, which means it’s the team you think will be No. 1 at the end of the season. (Otherwise, why make it No. 1?)

And if you’re No. 1 team is an end-of-season projection, then shouldn’t every team be treated to that standard — the entire preseason ballot should be an end-of-season projection.

*** Once the games begin, I’ll rework the ballot to reflect results, a process that takes many weeks because of the imbalanced schedules.

1. Florida: Gators were my preseason No. 1 last year because of the combination of talent, coaching and schedule, and not much has changed. (The biggie is an Oct. 10 date at LSU.) Make it three out of four BCS titles for Urb.

2. Texas: I like the Horns head-to-head against Oklahoma, the non-conference is very manageable, and they have almost everyone back on offense.

3. Ohio State: This is probably a few spots higher than the Buckeyes will land in the AP poll, but I think they’ll beat USC, which makes it a one-game season: at Penn State, Nov. 7.

4. Virginia Tech: If they win the opener (Alabama in Atlanta), the Hokies will be in the BCS title hunt.

5. Oklahoma: I expect a couple losses from the Sooners, which is why I don’t have them in the top three. The OL is reloading and the schedule is brutal — arguably the toughest in the country.

7. USC: The problem is the schedule as much as the new QB and retooled defense. I’ve got the Trojans for at least two losses (at Ohio State and either at Cal, at Oregon or at Notre Dame).

8. Louisiana State: Thought about the Tigers for a top-five slot, then saw the schedule (Alabama and Ole Miss on the road) and decided the 8-10 range was more reasonable.

9. Oklahoma State: The ninth-best team in the nation but only third-best in the Big 12 South.

10. Georgia Tech: Not sure Tech qualifies as a sleeper since it’s coming off a nine-win season — and has 18 starters back. But I like the Jacket more than most voters, is my guess.

11. Cal: The best combo of talent and chemistry in Berkeley since 2004.

12. Penn State: The schedule’s so soft, the Lions could screw it up and still win nine. But it’s also so soft that they won’t have much to put on the resume.

13. Nebraska: Look for the Huskers in the Big 12 title game. Also, look for them to get hammered in the Big 12 title game.

14. Notre Dame: The schedule could turn out to be tougher than I think. But at this point, it looks like the Irish should win at least nine.

15. Texas Christian: The non-conference lineup includes two ACC roadies, so forget about a BCS bid. But the Frogs should be the top team in the Mountain West.

16. Boise State: The best bet to crack the BCS — but only if the Broncos win the opener vs. Oregon. And frankly, the WAC could stand to take a little of the MWC’s momentum away.

17. Pittsburgh: You know Dave Wannstedt will lose a game he shouldn’t, but the Panthers have enough returning talent to win the Big (When does hoops start?) East.

18. Alabama: Why so low? Because a new quarterback and the SEC West schedule (plus VaTech) aren’t a good match.

19. North Carolina: Three Butch Davis recruiting classes should be enough to get the Heels into the top-25 on a consistent basis.

20. Oregon: I’m not nearly as high on the Ducks as other voters — they’re No. 14 in the coaches poll — because they lost so much on the lines. And because of the schedule.

21. Georgia: Speaking of … The Dawgs play four of my preseason top-10 teams. And only one of the four is ‘tween the hedges.

22. Central Michigan: With 16 starters back from a team that went 8-5 — including stud QB Dan LeFevour — the Chippewas just might end up being the best non-BCS team. (Arizona better be ready for the opener.)

23. Vanderbilt: The schedule’s tough (LSU, Mississippi and GaTech plus the SEC East). But the Commodores have almost everyone back and one of the top coaches in the country in Bobby Johnson.

24. Utah: The Utes are basically starting over on offense, but the defense should be good enough for eight or nine wins.

25. Iowa: Third-best team in the Big Ten but only 25th-best in the country … Yep, that sounds about right.

Jon Wilner

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Your ballot, Jon, seems very reasonable.
I am glad you will get to vote on College football again; Clemson fans may not agree.
One issue I have is that you think Ohio State will finish ranked 3rd in the Nation. That must mean you have them winning the rose Bowl. I do think USC will lose in Columbus on Sept 12, but if they are rematched again on January 1st, I would put money on the Trojans. If Cal or some other Pac-10 team wins the conference to go to the Rose Bowl, I would think they would be talented enough to beat Ohio State as they would most likely have beaten USC as well.
Your thoughts?

nedbear

Jon, I wish you could publish something as extensive as Steele or others, because I am puzzled but some of your placings. But it’s all speculation at this point and no one sees the future. Thanks for the entertainment and I’m glad it’s only two weeks away

Stanford Yapping

At least you considered Clemson……………………

Cal #11? I thought the rules were to avoid regional bias?!?

Todd

Here are my thoughts: I like Texas for #1. Florida will lose a game, or two because of their tough schedule. Cal at #11 is way too high. Oregon at #20 way too low. Ohio State will lose a couple of games along the way (probably one against USC). Penn State will stay high in the rankings because of a cupcake schedule then eventually lose to Ohio State. Penn State’s record will look good and that’s usually what the rankings are based on (not who you played). USC will win the PAC 10 & be ranked in the top 3 come Dec. Watch out for Florida State. FSU will be the national surprise this season.

I’m not seeing why everyone is ranking LSU so high. They lost 5 games last season, and got smashed in 3 of them. The only opponent of note they beat was Georgia Tech, and it was an impressive win, but their losses were much more unimpressive than that one victory was impressive. Basically, other than Georgia Tech, this is a list of the teams LSU beat last season. Tulane, Troy, North Texas, Appalachian State (what does that say about you when the best OCC competition you play is a 1-AA team?), Auburn, Mississippi St, South Carolina. What about them is supposed to impress me, exactly? Top 5 or Top 10? Really?

Big D

Cal 11, Oregon 20, really?! The only thing that might be accurate about that is the score.

As for no Kansas, maybe you should consider covering croquet.

spincity68

Again not picking the Beavers. They will show and everyone else who doesn’t pick them in the top 25 as ignorant again, when will you learn, what does it take?

spincity68

Again not picking the Beavers. They will show you and everyone else who doesn’t pick them in the top 25 as ignorant again, when will you learn, what does it take?

Spinseeker

8. Louisiana State: Thought about the Tigers for a top-five slot, then saw the schedule (Alabama and Ole Miss on the road) and decided the 8-10 range was more reasonable.

How about opening your eyes and seeing their performance? See comment #6.

B,

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

LSU in the top ten is such a joke. If you are basing this off of where they will finish, how do you not include Oregon State. They only finish in the top 25 every year under Riley. That would be a much better prediction than Vanderbilt and Pittsburgh (Sun Bowl, anyone, anyone… well as boring as it was, the Beavs were decimated with injuries but still pulled a shutout.)

The only good thing I see is that you don’t have 5 SEC teams in the top twelve like most other polls. Bama and Georgia are both in about the right spots.

BTW, no way Oregon finishes that low. They may start slow (but probably not with a loss to Boise) as the O line gels, but they will finish very strong. Look for a top ten finish again.

socalduck2001

ha ha…let the homerism roll.

I read Wilner’s articles just to get a laugh. Wow I never thought I would read anyone who dislikes the Oregon programs more than John Canzano, but thanks to Wilner, I have been corrected!!

GoBears

I wish the voters would also base their ranking on who is playing like the best team instead of who they think will be left standing in the end b/c of a soft schedule. I also hope the Penn State is punished for their ridiculous sched.

Allen

Surely you must understand that your approach in ranking teams now by projecting where you think they’ll finish rewards teams who schedule patsies rather then penalizes them. Why would you or anyone do that? Assume that other writers followed your example to the extreme, and put Penn State #1—not because they believed they’re the best team right now but because they have an absurdly easy schedule and thus a greater chance to go undefeated. This rewards Penn State—they have to play there way out of #1, and penalizes teams with tougher schedules that start lower and have to leapfrog others. That is just wrong. You’ve started with a flawed premise which is not in the AP guidelines–that #1 preseason means that’s who you think will finish #1—and that skews all of your rankings. Just rank them on relative merit as of the date of the ballot and stop rewarding teams who intentionally schedule weak opponents.

B

“not because they believed they’re the best team right now but because they have an absurdly easy schedule and thus a greater chance to go undefeated. This rewards Penn State—they have to play there way out of #1, and penalizes teams with tougher schedules that start lower and have to leapfrog others. That is just wrong. You’ve started with a flawed premise which is not in the AP guidelines–that #1 preseason means that’s who you think will finish #1—and that skews all of your rankings.”

The whole premise of this doesn’t make sense. If your voting is based on what you expect your future voting to be…what does the voting actually represent to begin with? Nothing? It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy almost that gives you no actual information…

@Spinseeker – I have to say, I also don’t see all this Oregon State love that comes out. Are our memories really that short? True, they’ve done decently the last 3 years, but in 8 years under Riley they’ve finished ranked 3 times, and those rankings were #18, 21, and 25. If you want to go with the argument that they’ve got the talent, I don’t have objections, I just don’t see why all of a sudden Riley is talked about like he’s some genius coach you should never bet again.

In the 8 years he’s been coaching Oregon St, you could argue they’ve been as far down as the 6th best team in the Pac-10. USC is obviously #1, and after that, 5 teams have finished ranked 3 times. Cal, UCLA and Oregon all have top 10 finishes (OSU hasn’t even been close to that), and Arizona St has finished as high as #14 (higher than OSU’s highest ranking of 18). This is all based on AP polls.

Todd

If Penn State gets by Ohio State they may end up in the BCS Championship game. Remember it’s your record not who you played. When a team goes 12-0 nobody usually asks ” but who did you play?” Undefeated is undefeated. That’s why if Boise gets by Oregon somehow they may end up in a BCS Bowl Game. It won’t matter that they beat the likes of Idaho, New Mexico State, UC Davis, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), & etc. 12-0 in the WAC, or Mt. West looks better to the BCS Committee than 11-1, or 10-2 in most any BCS conference. I think Oklahoma & Alabama will agree that selecting top notch undefeated non-BCS conference teams are valid selections. Penn State may have set themselves up to make a run at the BCS Championship. Plus Paterno gets more wins to increase his lead over B. Bowden.

blount

cal #11???? ducks #20????

no bay area bias here, huh?

phillaak23

Stanford Yapping:

“Cal #11? I thought the rules were to avoid regional bias?!?”

How is that regional bias when Cal is #12 in the Coaches Poll?

Tommy T.

Notre Dame? Give me a break. Same stuff every year. If you dumb down your schedule enough anyone can win 9-10 games. Next thing you know Notre Shame will be playing a Pop Warner schedule, anything to win a few games.

szabo

Jon:
Refering back to your choice for teams with the softest Pac 10 schedule, you list Arizona in that group. Yet they play 5 teams listed in your AP top 25. Doesn’t seem congruous.

StanTheMan

Wow #11 for Cal. They will really disappoint if they start off the season ranked that high.

petalumaduck

If you assume that Oklahoma and USC will each have at least two losses, aren’t you being generous to rank them at 5 and 7?

You’re saying that there will be several one loss teams that you will rank lower. The only explanation to do this is that Oklahoma and USC get their rankings based on their name, or it’s where you think other writers will have them finish. Either way, your vote then lacks independent thought.

Also, Boise St., If they beat Oregon, they should be ranked higher, if Oregon beats BSU, won’t they probably finish higher? The same could probably said of Central Michigan. I don’t care which decision you make, just make a decision.

Todd

Stan, Just like the last several years!

Steve

If only Cal could be like Stanford, where on the field and in the classroom, the bar is set so low you can trip over it, thus guaranteeing that you’ll rarely be disappointed

Trojan Brett

I (unsurprisingly) take objection with USC’s #7 ranking. Well, not the ranking so much as the expected performance. You count on a loss at Ohio State and potentially at Notre Dame, but I’m far less worried about either of those games than Cal and Oregon. Even if there is concern about the QB spot, which I don’t agree with but at least understand, this team is perfectly suited to beat Ohio State in a “3 yards and a cloud of dust” style Big Ten game. The offensive line and running backs can manhandle the Ohio State D, and Pryor hasn’t shown that he can lead the team to a victory in a big game.Notre Dame? Hah! 2005 was the exception, not the rule, for games in South Bend.

Of all the games, @Cal has all the trappings of an upset: Away game, early in the season, psyched opponent, a potentially overconfident 4-0 team coming off demolishing the state of Washington. I would be legitimately worried if I didn’t remember that Cal chokes in big games and we own Jahvid Best. @Oregon won’t be easy either, mostly because it’s in Autzen, but I’m not sold on them yet.

For the rest of the Pac-10 rankings, Cal seems about right, although they haven’t put together a good second-half of the season since 2004. Oregon seems alright at 20. However, if they’re 20, I think Oregon State needs to be at least 19. I see Oregon State pulling out a better season, although the two teams should be very close. Everyone seems to think the Pac-10 is a three-team tossup for first and a lonely Oregon State in fourth, but I think it’s more like a 2 team battle for first with the Oregon schools battling for 3/4.

D W

Wow. Va Tech still #4 despite losing their best player to an ACL. G-Tech might take advantage of this loss.

Glad you consider Cal to be USC’s second banana. But they must win at Oregon and beat Oregon State at home for the first time in eons for all that to happen. Otherwise, it’s the Duck-or-Beaver-state who will give SC the biggest scare. Better conditioning is also key. Hard to tell how SC’s 2-2 split on the 4 toughest roads will happen. The four factors: Ohio St’s confidence, Cal’s health, Oregon’s lines, and Notre Dame’s consistency; and all tend to fluctuate.

With Va Tech’s ACL issues and Ohio St’s esteem, look for OU, Ole Miss, SC, and LSU to join Florida and Texas among Football’s Final Four. The big barrier between the Gators and Longhorns is team & line speed plus more depth. SC has similar depth, but no experience at QB. Repeat.

Furdman

Steve, You’re a poor sick, dillusional, uninformed, & misguied Kal Burrcub weenie. If it could only be the way your twisted mind perceives it. You post is a desperate attempt to bash the Cardinal when in effect Kal is the one with the bar set low and they are still able to continually disappoint & fail miserably. Going to class? Everyday? Not at Cal Borkeley!

Trojan4Ever

Jon: USC #7??? Beginning with 2002, USC has not finished lower than 4 in the final AP poll. Why will this year be any different? With a young QB, this is the year when the running game will be showcased. Johnson, Gable, Bradford, McKnight, Tyler and McNeal will provide plenty of scoring power behind the very strong O line. While the road schedule is tough, this is the season when there will be no letdown. Those tough road trips will keep the team focused. The only real trap game would be Nov 7 vs. ASU, after consecutive wins against Cal, ND and both Oregon schools. See you in the Rose Bowl (again), but this time on Jan 7.

Spinseeker

Trojan Brett,

Don’t worry about the Cal game. Oregon is going to beat them up as usual. Whether Oregon gets over the hump and actually beats them this year won’t matter to you. There is a reason Cal’s season goes in the crapper near the end of each year… Oregon. Usually OSU gets to take advantage of playing them the week after us. This year USC will benefit.

B

“cal #11???? ducks #20????

no bay area bias here, huh?”

@blount – and why shouldn’t Cal be ranked ahead of Oregon, exactly?

“You’re saying that there will be several one loss teams that you will rank lower.”

@petalumaduck – so what if he ranks one loss teams lower. If those teams didn’t play a difficult schedule (PENN STATE!), they deserve to be ranked lower, even with less losses. When you play difficult teams (like a Pac-10 schedule + good OOC schedule like Pac-10 teams generally play), losses happen, not because you aren’t good, but just because you don’t schedule sissy opponents.

B

“Don’t worry about the Cal game. Oregon is going to beat them up as usual. Whether Oregon gets over the hump and actually beats them this year won’t matter to you. There is a reason Cal’s season goes in the crapper near the end of each year… Oregon.”

I’m not sure what this is supposed to mean, exactly. I looked at the facts, and noticed Cal has beaten Oregon the last 3 years, and 4 of the last 5…

Bearfan

Oregon is going to beat us up?

Last time we lost to Oregon was in 05 and Bellotti was still the coach. Chip Kelly is 0-2 vs Cal so far as Coordinator. For whatever reason, Kelly’s offense is pretty explosive against everybody except us. Gregory seems to find a way to keep Oregon’s offense in check. Having said that, I think Oregon at 20th is pretty low. Should be a top 15th team considering they return Masoli and Blount.

The team you left out in the top 25 that I think you should consider putting in is Miami. There is alot of talent depth there. Their quarterback is experienced. They have a new offensive coordinator and from what it sounds like in camp, their offense is improving. I’d put them in over the likes of Central Michigan or Vanderbilt because those teams, while I’m sure are well coached and play well, don’t have the talent depth to deal with injuries. If a couple of their key starters get hurt, they won’t be able to replace them.

Jacob Wang

By Aug 3rd, one only knows which teams are the most talented and healthy (at the time). Teams haven’t even scrimmaged each other yet. No polls before Oct 3rd, when there have been games!

Spinseeker

I didn’t say Oregon won the last few years, I said Oregon beat up Cal. How else do you explain the loss to OSU when Riley ran off the field trying to hand the ref the ball and missing out on the field goal for the win. That was a very good Cal team for seven weeks before that. Well deserving of a top 2 ranking IMO. After that game… not so much.

Try reading a little closer. ‘Whether Oregon gets over the hump and actually beats them this year won’t matter to you.’ That implies Oregon hasn’t made it over the hump yet.

Notre Dame will not be top 15 at the end of this season either. Jeez, they whip a bad Hawaii team at the end of another bad season and suddenly they are back. Pollsters want so badly to include Notre Dame because of the large fan base and they think it will help sell something. What a foolish ranking for a team that is not deserving of it at all. I have nothing personal against ND, they just haven’t shown me the ability to play good quality football for a few years.

petalumaduck

B,

I get your point. To be more clear, if USC loses to Ohio St. and Cal, shouldn’t Cal be ranked higher, or is he assuming 3 losses for Cal? Same for Oregon vs.USC. I’ll discount ND, because of the patsy schedule that you mention.

Will USC end up 7, probably. But I think Wilner puts them there because he thinks other writers will. If you put some thought into head to head wins and losses etc, based on his “logic” Cal should be above them or Oregon should be higher. I’m just saying it’s a pretty wishy-washy list.

Now, if he overhauls it after 5 weeks, based on performances on the field I’ll give him kudos. But if Oregon is undefeated after USC, they should be ranked higher than USC regardless of where they start in the top 25.

Rmase

How do you rank Notre Dame ahead of TCU, Boise St., Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, BYU, and anyone else in college football? This team has had countless years of top 10 recruiting classes and can’t do a thing with them. Charlie Weis is the most overrated coach in College Football and it is tools like Jon Wilner that make him so overrated. USC below Mississippi and Ohio St. Are you stupid or just ignorant Wilner? Oregon at 20? Steve Greatwood is one of the best O-line coaches in the country and Kelly is a genius. It think they need a little more credit then that. Nebraska and ND in the top 15 is a joke right? The Beavers not making the top 25 is expectable from someone like you too. There are so many Bias and mindless choices in this list it makes me sick. Maybe you should start writing for the WNBA where nobody will notice your terrible articles.

Vintage Cal

Wilner means: Yep, I’m voting again. The STUPID folks over at the AP San Francisco bureau invited me back into the fray for another year, and I was OVERWHELMED and BEFUDDLED. NO ONE LESS DESERVING HAS EVER ACHIEVED MORE.

MEG Hoopster

Way to go Wilner. According to pollstalker, you’re well on your way of defending your title as World’s Worst AP Voter. Not bad for week 1. You posted 5 extreme and 5 near extreme team rankings. Of all the voters, only you put Vandy in the Top 25. But of course, you are so much smarter than everyone else.

Sac

You are an idiot. They must have been hard up for west coast voters.

Rumbleit

Props to picking Vandy to finish in the top 25. Looks like you actually did some research and saw they’re returning their entire Off. and Def. Line. Not to mention their linebacker crew and bowl winning QB in Larry Smith. They’re also switching to the no huddle spread which should help keep defenses worn out. They’re well coached and have consistently gotten better for the last seven years Bobby Johnson has been there.