29 January 2015

Orioles Acquire Travis Snider, Gain Additional Depth

After failing to bring back Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz,
the Orioles have been in the market for another outfielder for much of the
offseason.While they missed out on the
free agents (which left us a little confused), they finally landed their man by
acquiring outfielder Travis Snider from the Pirates for minor league pitcher
Stephen Tarpley and a "player to be named later."Let’s take a quick look at Baltimore’s new outfielder
and also see what they had to give up to get him.

What the Orioles
Received

Travis Snider was the 14th overall pick in the
2006 draft.As a top prospect, Snider
absolutely crushed the ball during his time in the minors, hitting a combined .309/.383/.525in 2200 plate appearances across all
levels.That success in the minors never
really carried over to the majors though, as he basically resembled a typical
quad-A player (someone too good for AAA, but not good enough for the majors).Here’s what Snider has been able to do over
the course of his major league career.

The overall numbers aren’t too encouraging, but the good
news is that 2014 was his best season by far, as he produced career marks in
almost every offensive category. So which version of Travis Snider will the
Orioles get in 2015?On one hand, it’s
hard to ignore the rather sizable sample of Snider’s struggles prior to last
year.On the other, Snider just had
a much better season at the plate than the recently departed Nick Markakis
(albeit in less PA’s) and is a former top prospect that will only turn 27 in
the next week. After several years of being one of the best outfielders in
baseball, it’s easy to forget that Alex Gordon struggled on offense until his
age 27 season.I’m not saying Snider
will have an Alex Gordon type breakout, but some guys take a little bit longer
to figure it out.

Having said that, Snider may not even be an everyday player.Back in December, Matt looked at a rumored deal that would have sent Brian Matusz to the Pirates in exchange for Snider
and took a quick look at Snider’s possible platoon issues.While his overall splits don’t scream
“platoon player”, there are legitimate reasons to believe Snider is not a good
option against left-handers, including a strikeout rate over 33% and the fact
that he hasn’t been given much of an opportunity to even face left-handed
pitching (277 career PA’s).

Earlier in the offseason, we here at Camden Depot stated that an outfield consisting of Jones/Pearce/De Aza/Lough actually wouldn’t be much worse than 2014’s group.However, it’s not unreasonable to think that this group (minus Jones) has
a higher chance to disappoint (especially offensively) than not, so picking up
Snider as another outfield option was a nice move by the front office to hedge
their bets.Additionally, Snider doesn’t
cost much (he signed for $2.1 million in 2014) and is under team control next
year as well.It’s a good pickup,
especially when considering that both De Aza and Pearce will be free agents
after the season.

What the Orioles Gave
Up

In order to get Snider, the Orioles gave up left-handed
pitcher Stephen Tarpley and a “player to be named later”.Tarpley was the Orioles 3rd round
pick in the 2013 draft out of Scottsdale Community College.He spent all last season pitching in Aberdeen
(Short Season A-Ball), sporting a 3.66 ERA over 66.1 innings, while striking
out 60 and walking 24.

This offseason, Tarpley was rated by Baseball Prospectus as the Orioles 9th best prospect (subscription required and recommended).Essentially, Tarpley shows good stuff on the
mound, but he lacks polish on his command and his secondary pitches.BP’s prospect team sees him as having the
ceiling of a number 3 or 4 starter, but a more realistic role of a 6th
inning reliever/long man in the bullpen.So while he does have a higher ceiling than some of the pitchers ahead
of him on that list (pitchers not named Bundy or Harvey), he has a way to go to
reach that ceiling.

The other player going to the Pirates in this deal is
currently unknown, and according to Roch Kubatko of MASN, that player likely won’t
be known until spring training.However,
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reported that left-hander Steven Brault could
be the PTBNL.Brault was drafted in the
11th round of the 2013 draft and spent the 2014 season between Low-A
Delmarva and High-A Frederick.I
couldn’t find much else on him, so I asked Tucker Blair of Baseball Prospectus for some insight:

“Steven
Brault is an athletic-framed lefty that was signed out of Regis University,
which has never seen a player make the majors. I've seen Brault quite a few
times while he was with Aberdeen, Delmarva, and Frederick. He generally sits
90-92 with average present command, but his fastball has some sink and run on
it. He also has a SL, CB and CH, with the first two fringy. The CH has some
deception and fade to it, and is largely the reason his numbers have been so
productive throughout his first two seasons. He hides the pitch well out of his
hand. Brault has enjoyed success so far in pro ball due to his loose arm and
that deception, but I lean more towards him being a role 4 relief type, as I
haven't seen the consistency in his mechanics and the stuff leans mostly
towards the average side. There isn't a ton of room for mistakes, which I think
will be exploited some at the higher levels. For now, he's an intriguing option
as a backend starter type.”

Conclusion

Overall this trade appears to be a good one for both teams
to make.Travis Snider gives the Orioles
the outfielder they’ve been searching for all offseason long, at minimal cost
in terms of dollars and prospects.As
for Pittsburgh, they end up with one intriguing pitching prospect (possibly
two) for a player who would have struggled to find at-bats next
season.Baltimore fans may have
preferred the Brian Matusz for Snider swap that was discussed earlier, but it’s
unlikely that Baltimore will miss Tarpley (or Brault, if he is the PTBNL).Tarpley may have the ceiling of a number 3 or
4 starter, but he’ll begin the 2015 season as a 22 year old having yet to reach
Low-A.In other words, it’s probably
going to take a while for him to get there, if he ever does.

As a team planning on contending in 2015, Travis Snider is worth
much more to the Orioles than either of the minor league players they gave up
for him. Snider gives the Orioles another solid option in the outfield or off
the bench.And if they’re lucky, there’s
even a chance he’s more than just a solid option.When this deal was announced, our
own Matt Kremnitzer asked an interesting question that's important to remember when considering this trade.

So if you had to pick the Markakis deal or the Snider trade, what would you take? I think it's Snider in a landslide.
— Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) January 28, 2015

If you’re being honest with yourself, I bet you probably agree with him.

9 comments:

This is a low risk, high reward move for the O's. As I argued earlier this is a lot better, cheaper move then Colby Rasmus and I glad the O's circled back.

This gives the O's a lot more flexibility and hopefully takes ab's away from Lough.

Pirates made a nice move converting their fourth OFer into some prospects. They should have the best OF in baseball next year and can use other options. Reading Kang has some OF exp and Harrison has played there so this is a great trade for Pittsburgh.

Now lets sign Manny and Matt to extensions and lock up the Orioles defense for the next few years and fingers crossed on Gausman, Bundy and Harvey.

Well, I would say if you want a real chance to lock up Manny you better be looking at it now or never. Look at some way to protect both sides. Get creative. Unless you want to pay market when he breaks out or just decide it was fun while it lasted.

With Matt, it really comes down to the O's committing $60-75 million to a player. The market is Yadier, McCann and Martin. $15-16 mill a year. Of course, if he can make the throw to second in spring training he's basically back from his injury.

I'm not opposed to this move as a Chris Davis type gamble, and the upside for Snider is pretty big.However, I'm very interested in how this acquisition compares to some that we missed out on, specifically Michael Saunders. I think they both have the same WAR projections, and Saunders could have been had for Bud Norris(based on what Toronto paid)Should we be sad we got Snider instead of Saunders or perhaps Blackmon, or relieved?(BTW, I like Bud Norris a lot and I hope he is t traded. I mention him because he was our player most comparable to Happ.)

Philip - I think I would personally rather have Saunders, although ultimately it may not matter. Getting Snider allowed the Orioles to keep their MLB starting pitching depth (important for a contending team), whereas the cost to get Saunders probably would have required them to part with someone from the major league roster, possibly Bud Norris, as you mentioned.

Trading for Snider was a MUCH better move than re-signing Markakis at 10 times the price:

(1) Snider produced more in 359 plate appearances last season than Markakis has averaged the past four years getting close to 700 plate appearances each season (1.7 WAR v. 1.45 WAR)

(2) Snider made huge strides last year in the areas that previously most held him back: plate discipline and contact rate. He went from being below average on % swings out of the zone and contact rate in the zone to being well above average.

(3) Snider made those improvements despite a home park that's near;y the worst in MLB for left-handed power hitters and now move to one of the best parks for left-handed power.

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