Ok, seeing as I keep banging on about value and haven't actually posted much in the way of bets yet (value either gone before I can post/jinx) I thought I'd put up a couple of long-ish shots in this semi final...

Turkey has a lot of allies in this semi so it's voting strength has to be respected. Both the song and staging also seem to have come over well this week, receiving positive comments. The song is likely to appeal more to East Europeans which is also a positive given whose voting in this semi. They also generally get decent points from France & Germany who are allowed to vote. Draw could of maybe been a touch kinder but in 13th it goes after the 2 market leaders. Main negative has to be how the juries will view it, but again it's likely to be less harshly marked by Eastern European juries and thus hopefully suffer less in it's semi that it may in the final.

Considering Bosnia & Herzegovina are 33/1 this one probably seems a bit more than hopeful, however I did have Greece at large odds last year (at one point they were similar odds to B&H now) so it's not impossible. My reasoning for B&H almost mirrors that of Turkey although they arguably have a stronger voting base to rely on, it's also the type of song that should get marked highly by the juries and when you add that to the fact it's drawn 17th I think it has to be worth a punt at the odds.

Obviously they have to contend with Sweden whose the odds on favorite, but I wonder how well this will do away from the majority of it's allies, from a middling draw and by no means certain to appeal to East European juries or tele voters... Serbia will probably be top 3 as they out do both Turkey and Bosnia and Herzegovina in terms of voting strength and have a genuine contender to win the whole thing who is liable to do well with both voters and juries alike. The big negative is the draw. Norway's voting strength is depleted like Sweden's, the song isn't particularly jury friendly although it may appeal more to tele voters.

Anyway, with a few question marks over the front 3 (for me at least) I think it's reasonable to try and take them on and I've gone for the following;

I just can't see Turkey qualifying this year, I think it is going to be the shock of the contest. The song is poor and the singer is just as mediocre. I think Malta or Belarus is a better bet. Here are my thoughts and predictins for tonights qualifiers...

I can see Malta springing a shock but i can't see it being at the expense of Turkey, the semis full of their allies and they're guaranteed a bunch of points from the tele vote, the staging and whole package, not just the song is also good. Belarus I think will miss out as they had a ropey rehearsal last night and don't have a good draw