Thursday, November 18, 2004

Now that the 2004 elections are concluded, and assorted liberal media elites are finishing up their profoundly embarrassing post-election tantrums, it is time to look ahead. It is much too early to speculate about 2008, although lists of putative candidates in both parties have already emerged. (I can’t help myself, even as I criticize this practice, and insert here mention of one of my dark horse 2008 candidates, Sen. Tom Carper of Delaware, a centrist Democrat and former congressman, and, very importantly, a former governor.) It is not too soon to look ahead to 2006, however, and the prospects for the U.S. Senate.

With the GOP now comfortably ahead there and one-third of the Senate up again in 2006, it might be speculated that the Democrats would have an advantage then, especially with a lame duck Republican president in the White House.

But this does not seem to be the case. First of all, there are 18 seats held by Democrats up in 2006 and only 14 held by Republicans. Second, an examination of incumbents likely to run for re-election reveals that for now few of the Republicans seem vulnerable. A number of Democratic incumbents could be in trouble, however, particularly Minnesota’s Mark Dayton and perennial 2008 presidential mentionee Hillary Clinton of New York (should Rudy Giuliani decide to run against her in 2006).

Where there is much potential for change is likely to come from retiring incumbents. Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd will be 89 in 2006, and is already in obvious decline. It is difficult to imagine him standing for election again. Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka of Hawaii will be 83. Other Democrats who will be in their 70s include Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, Dianne Feinstein of California and Paul Sarbanes of Maryland. Republicans in their 70s include Sens. Orrin Hatch of Utah and Richard Lugar of Indiana, but as senior and powerful members in the majority, they are perhaps less likely to retire in two years. Only Sen. Conrad Burns, who will be 71, has any visible vulnerability among Republicans in 2006.

The almost zero opportunity for the Democrats to regain the control of the Senate for at least four years has already caused several Senate incumbents to consider seriously leaving the Senate to run for governor in their states. Sen. Jon Corzine, who is up in 2006, is seriously considering running for governor of New Jersey. Sen. Charles Schumer made noises about running for governor of New York, but has now apparently decided to remain in Washington.

All of this signals unpleasant times ahead for Democrats in the Senate. Other incumbents, observing the transition that former Democratic congresssman and Cabinet secretary Bill Richardson made to be a popular governor of New Mexico (and leading 2008 presidential candidate), might be tempted to go where there is much more favorable political action — to their state capitals as governor. The establishment of 40 votes as the number of senators able to maintain a filibuster was effective from 2001 to 2004 under recently defeated Minority Leader Tom Daschle, but this is not likely to fly again in the face of President Bush’s decisive re-election, the pickup of four Republican senators and GOP Majority Leader Bill Frist’s vow to stop this precedent.

New Democratic minority leader, Harry Reid, is not likely to be a strong and forceful figure who can keep his minority caucus disciplined. The party’s Senate members, as are Democrats across the nation, are divided into sharp factions, with outspoken figures on the left (led by Sens. Kennedy and Russ Feingold) and in the center right (led by Sens. Joe Lieberman and Joe Biden), and are likely to blur further the Democratic Party’s lack of central message to the country.

The desire to block judicial appointments post-2004 does not a compelling national message make.

With dynamic young senators such as Jim Talent of Missouri, Norm Coleman of Minnesota and John Thune of South Dakota and David Vitter of Lousiana; strong women such as Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins and Kay Bailey Hutchison, and seasoned veterans such as Mr. Frist, Lamar Alexander and John McCain; the Democrats with Mr. Biden of Delaware, Barack Obama of Illinois, Debbie Stabenau of Michigan, Mr. Carper and Mr. Lieberman seem outgunned as well as outvoted.

The action in the Democratic Party, recently concentrated in the U.S. Senate, will now almost certainly move into the states and the party’s center in its grass-roots. If it wants to revive itself in time for the 2008 elections, it can’t happen too soon.

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About Barry Casselman

BARRY CASSELMAN is an author, journalist and lecturer who has reported and analyzed American presidential and national politics since 1972.

He founded, edited and published his first newspaper when he was 29. He has been a contributor to many national publications, including The Weekly Standard, realclearpolitics.com, Politico, Roll Call, Washington Examiner, The American Interest, Utne Reader, Campaigns and Elections Magazine, American Experiment Quarterly, Washington Times, The Rothenberg Political Report, Business Today, Election Politics, Business Ethics Magazine, San Francisco Examiner, Washington Insider, and American Commonwealth.

His regular op ed columns and other commentary in print, and on the internet, are distributed through the Preludium News Service. His blog ‘The Prairie Editor” has an international readership and appears on his website at www.barrycasselman.com .

He was a political analyst for WCCO-AM (CBS) for several years, for KSJN-AM (Public Radio International), and for KUOM-AM (National Public Radio). He has also broadcast on RAE in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and beginning in 2000, he produced and broadcast for Voice of America. In 2006, he presented news commentary on LBC, the independent 24-hour news radio network in London, England. He also provided election night analysis in 2006 for Minnesota Public Radio. In 2008, he returned to WCCO-AM for periodic national election commentary. Beginning in 2011, he began weekly commentary on the 2012 presidential campaign on a national radio podcast program originating in Dallas, TX.

Casselman was the original host of “Talk To Your City” on the Minneapolis Television Network, and was a frequent political commentator for KTCA-TV (PBS). In 1992 and 1994, he presented election night analysis for the Conus coast-to-coast All News Channel. In 1996, he provided live coverage from the presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire for All News Channel nationwide. He has also appeared on C-SPAN. In 2008, he was interviewed by ABC-TV Evening News with Charles Gibson.

He has covered national presidential primaries, caucuses and straw polls since 1976, and attended Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1988. He has traveled throughout the United States to report on significant political events, including the national congressional debate in Williamsburg in 1996, the presidential debates, national conventions and events of the Democratic Leadership Council, Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, United We Stand America, Reform Party, National Governors Association, NAACP, AFL-CIO, Christian Coalition, CPAC, Green Party and the Independence Party.

In 2012, he was invited to be a civilian participant in the 58th annual seminar on national security at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA. Also in 2012, he was a speaker at the Jefferson Educational Society's Global Summit IV. At that event, he received the Thomas Hagen "Dignitas" Award for lifetime achievement.

From 1990-2011, he was the executive director of the non-profit International Conference Foundation, and hosted more than 500 world leaders, foreign journalists and other international visitors. At the non-partisan Foundation, he also organized four national symposia: the first on low-income housing with then-HUD Secretary Jack Kemp; the second, a highly-acclaimed conference on “Locating the New Political Center in America” with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and leading spokespersons of the Clinton administration as well as newly-emerged independent groups; the third, a symposium on public communications with then-Governor Tom Ridge, former White House press secretary Mike McCurry, Tony Blankley and other national figures; and in 2003, a symposium on homeland security with Secretary Ridge and leading local and national experts. During this time, he also organized numerous smaller conferences, tours and events for the U.S. Information Agency and the U.S. Department of State for its International Visitor Program and its Foreign Press Center programs. In 2008, he organized a special program for international media and visitors attending the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The Foundation also sponsored programs presenting domestic and international authors and their books.

In 2007, Mr. Casselman helped create and plan the nationally-broadcast and podcast dialogue between former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at the Cooper Union in New York City, and he continued to work on related debate and public policy discussion projects in the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Mr. Casselman has been a lecturer on public policy at Princeton University’s annual international business conferences in New York, and its regional conferences in Chicago since 2005; He also has been a guest lecturer at George Washington University, Carleton College, The Chautauqua (NY) Institution, Gannon University, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Santa Barbara City College, University of St. Thomas, Metropolitan State University, Augsburg College, University of Minnesota, Jefferson Educational Society, and on the international voyages of the Queen Elizabeth 2, Sagafjord, Vistafjord and Royal Viking Sun. He has made presentations on journalism and the arts at Carleton College, University of Minnesota, College of St. Catherine, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, Walker Art Center, Metropolitan State University, Mercyhurst College and the Brazilian Writers Union in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

His non-fiction book North Star Rising was published in 2007 by Pogo Press, an imprint of Finney Company. In 2008, Pogo Press published Minnesota Souvenir, Casselman’s history and visitor guide for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He was editor and co-author of the book Taking Turns: Political Stalemate or a New Direction in the Race for 2012, a preview of that year's national election.

He has been cited in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and in William Safire’s Political Dictionary. Casselman has invented a number of political words and phrases which are now in frequent usage, and listed in various online dictionaries.

He is also a widely-published American poet, short story writer and playwright whose work has been translated and published in Europe, South America and Asia. He is the author of four published books of literary prose and poetry. His work has been frequently anthologized. Two of his plays, in collaboration with composer Randall Davidson, have been performed by the Actors Theater of St. Paul, Minnesota Orchestra, St. Donat’s Ensemble of Wales, and by independent productions at the Union Depot in St. Paul and the Foss Theater at Augsburg College in Minneapolis. He has provided original texts for two award-winning experimental films, as well as texts for other independent short films and videos.

Barry Casselman was born in Erie, Pennsylvania. He received his B.A. with major honors from the University of Pennsylvania and his M.F.A. at the Writers Workshop at the University of Iowa. He has also studied in Paris, and attended the University of Madrid. He now lives in Minneapolis.