Midterms: Mike Espy out to prove a black Democrat can win in deep-red Mississippi

Former Congressman and U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy speaks to Hattiesburg, Mississippi, residents on his campaign for U.S. Senate at the Hattiesburg Train Depot on Sept. 23, 2018.(Photo: Susan Broadbridge/Hattiesburg American)

Mississippi isn't the only place he's campaigning. The Democrat is crisscrossing the country, trying to convince donors and power brokers from New York to Chicago to contribute to his long-shot bid to become the first African-American senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction.

Raising money out of state is crucial for many candidates, but it’s even more critical for Espy, whose core supporters in Mississippi's rural communities lack the deep pockets to help him mount a robust challenge to his two Republican rivals.

“I don’t have any choice but to go to those havens and those venues of people who are probably going to be Democrats, who are likely to find resonance with my approach and give to me politically,” Espy said.

Some political observers said Espy has a shot, but it’s an uphill battle in the ruby-red state, and his chances largely depend on boosting African-American turnout and capitalizing on the fierce battle between his Republican opponents.

“I hate to put a percentage on it, but I think it’s reasonable to discuss – there is a path forward for Espy to score an upset,” said Nathan Shrader, co-chair of Millsaps College Political Science Department. “If he can boost traditional Democratic turnout to look more like a presidential-year turnout than a midterm, then he’s in this thing.”

Espy, a former congressman and U.S. secretary of agriculture under the Clinton administration, is running in a special election to replace Republican Thad Cochran, who retired in April. Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, who was appointed to fill Cochran’s unexpired term, and state Republican Sen. Chris McDaniel are the other top contenders.

It also helped that in neighboring Alabama, Doug Jones pulled off an upset last December to become the first Democrat in 25 years to represent the state in the U.S. Senate.

Sen. Doug Jones, D-Ala., said Democrat Mike Espy has a chance at winning the Senate race in Mississippi this fall. Jones and Espy have talked about campaign strategies.(Photo: Deborah Barfield Berry, USA TODAY)

“We’re in a time when Republicans can’t take a lot for granted, particularly because if Democrats can win a Senate race in Alabama, they can hypothetically win one in Mississippi,’’ Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said. “The race is getting attention and probably merits attention.”

Espy is taking advantage of that attention, traveling to Chicago and New York City for fundraisers and returning this week to Washington, where he will meet with potential donors in a supporter’s living room.

Espy said it’s hard to raise the money he needs in Mississippi, where the 19.8 percent poverty rate is the highest in the country.

He hopes to raise at least $3 million. By the end of June, he had collected $408,236 and had $281,000 in his coffers, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Hyde-Smith had $1.4 million, and McDaniel trailed with $156,054.

Espy said fundraising picked up in the past month “as people see that the Democrats are doing better in Senate races around the country, as people begin to feel the urgency of the fact that control of the Senate just might depend on the results of this race.”

Espy asked Jones for campaign tips when they crossed paths this summer.

“I picked his very fertile brain, and I learned a lot from him, and I’ve hired a lot of his people,” Espy said.

Mike Espy, a former congressman and U.S. secretary of agriculture, right, is joined by former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, left, at a campaign stop Sept. 23, 2018, at the Train Depot in Hattiesburg, Mississippi.(Photo: Susan Broadbridge/Hattiesburg American)

Espy’s team includes Joe Trippi as media adviser and Rich McDaniel to handle his get-out-the-vote strategy.

Despite similarities in their campaigns, Espy said there are differences. He said Mississippi has 13,000 more registered black voters.

“On paper, we start with a better scenario than Doug Jones started with in Alabama,” he said.

U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., left, watches as Democrat Mike Espy pledges to work across party lines during a brief speech in Jackson, Mississippi on July 20, 2018.(Photo: Rogelio V. Solis, AP)

Espy not only has to convince blacks to support him, but, like Jones, must appeal to whites. Espy said he talks about issues important to all Mississippians, including access to affordable health care.

“It’s not a hard sell because they all want the same thing whether you’re African-American or white or you’re concerned about rural hospitals closing,” he said.

Jones, who spoke this year at a Mississippi Democratic Party event, said Espy can win.

“The same energy that we saw in Alabama I’ve seen in Mississippi,” he said. “Mike starts out with a really strong base. It’s just a question of engagement and getting folks out.”

Mississippi Republican Party Chairman Lucien Smith said there won't be an Alabama-style upset.

“I’m about as likely to grow wings and fly as Democrats are to win a Senate seat in Mississippi,” he said.

Smith said the party will unite behind whichever Republican makes the runoff. “We will fight till the last dog dies to make sure they win,” he said.

McDaniel said pundits give Espy far more of a chance than he really has.

“Mr. Espy was part of the Clinton administration, and that, in and of itself, is going to disqualify him for a majority of people in Mississippi,'' he said.

Appointed U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, right, and her family with President Donald Trump.(Photo: Special to the Clarion Ledger)

Eric Holder, former attorney general under President Barack Obama, said he will help Espy.

Espy said national Democrats can help by raising money.

“I really don’t need anyone to come to Mississippi to generate a vote for me,” he said. “We’re going to do pretty well already because I have a 94 percent name recognition in Mississippi. So it’s better for me to try to raise money outside, and that’s what we’re doing.”

“We feel very good about his chances,” said Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., who, along with Booker, introduced Espy to the CBC. "He’s working hard and raising the money necessary to become a viable candidate.”

Mississippi Democratic Party Chairman Bobby Moak said the national party stepped up support.

“We’ve probably got the best line of communication with the DNC (Democratic National Committee) since I’ve been aware of the Mississippi Democratic Party,” he said.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it’s monitoring Espy’s race but won’t say how much it plans to invest.

Jones said national Democrats helped with his campaign but noted he competed in a special election after other races were over.

“There wasn’t a lot of competition,” he said. “Now you’ve got 10 Democrats that are up … and about four or five of those are very close. We got to keep those that we have.”

A PAC associated with Minority Senate Leader Charles Schumer of New York contributed $10,000 to Espy's campaign.

“I’m asking for more and more every day,'' Espy said of national Democrats. "I can’t make them do anything. I just can be the best candidate that I can be and run the best campaign that I can run, and if they’re monitoring it and they feel good about it, then I think that they’ll do more."