The split is on a minor scale in an out of the way part of the country, but we social scientists look for signs of cracks in the military when there are attempts to open up the political system, because a divided military can aid the reformers.

The Deraa protesters insist that they are just a youth movement, and deny being Salafis or hard line Muslim revivalists.

Question for Prof Cole:
When these dictators sustain their power with an extensive security apparatus, how much autonomy do they have to change or reverse direction, e.g. establish democratic rule, without the consent of the security apparatus? And how much power do they have in running the day to day suppression of revolts?

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