Ones to Watch in 2009

Jonathan Isaby's pick: 2009 is the year when the pledge made by David Cameron during the 2005 leadership election to pull Conservative MEPs out of the federalist European Peoples' Party faction in Brussels should finally come to fruition. The man who has been doing the most behind the scenes to seek new alliance partners across Europe is Mark Francois, the shadow Europe minister. There's another six months' work to be done on this before the European elections, after which we will discover which political parties from across the continent are willing to sign up to a new grouping. European Parliament rules have been designed to frustrate the project - but if Mark can pull it off, he will attain folk hero status among Tory eurosceptics.

Tim Montgomerie's pick: I was tempted to choose Barack Obama for this category. He's certainly the one to watch on the international stage but he could also have a dramatic impact on UK politics. If he undertakes far-reaching economic intervention he may boost Gordon Brown. On the other hand his freshness and sense of change may boost David Cameron. But, on balance, I've plumped for a domestic choice and my one to watch for 2009 is Boris Johnson. He has already made a terrific start as Mayor - certainly exceeding my expectations. I think of him freezing the Mayor's contribution to council tax. Ousting Ian Blair. Banning alcohol on the tube. Stopping the extension of the congestion charge. Introducing crime mapping. ConHome surveys show that he's the most popular Tory amongst the grassroots - more popular than William Hague or David Cameron. What will he do with the Mayoralty in 2009? He has the opportunity to be a trailblazer for many Tory ideas although with his ideas on a new London airport and an immigration amnesty he has made it clear that he's his own man

Comments

Good pick of Boris.

Even a lefty friend of mine, and a London resident, admitted to me the other day (through gritted teeth) that Boris may not be his cup of tea but "at least he actually does what he says he is going to do".

I think Boris' major PR success of the entire year was probably his least important in terms of issues. The unveiling of the new Routemaster designs in December with the likelihood of one appearing on our roads by 2011 showed doubters that it wasn't just some pie-in-the-sky idea to win votes on the election trail, a claim made by cynical Labour.

Strong leadership brings respect, even from those who do not agree with actual policy. A certain Iron Lady knew all about that.

Come off it, Jonathan I:! Mark Francois won't be a folk hero with this Tory eurosceptic. It's about time that the party got round to keeping its promise to leave the EPP - it's FOUR YEARS overdue already.

And who cares whether it's in a group or not. Our whole relationship with the EU needs scrapping and rebuilding - not tinkering with!

Many of us are quite clear - We will not vote Tory in the euro-elections but - at present - will vote for the Party in the General Election.

Building "groups" is mere fiddling while Rome burns. Just leave the EPP.

BoJo is in a different league to the Shadow Cabinet (except Gove, gotta love Gove) not because the Tory big guns are in anyway wrong in their ways, but because they have, yes have, to conform to the please-all media and volatile electorate. Boris can be who he likes because of the comical value of his personality, whereas DC has to be much better an manipulating the press mood and striking the right balances, which I think he is doing an excellent job at.

Boris Johnson is not impressive. He only seems that way because he has done a few small things that any Tory Mayor would have done.

He seems impressive because expectations were so low: people in the know in the party (i.e. people who actually know him as opposed to the party activists who do not) are surprised that he was able to do anything at all.

First away choice has to be Obama but certainly Mark Francois will be my home favourite next year. ( I'd play Boris down a bit if I were you otherwise there'll be decidedly less light to fall of Cameron next year ) !!

I guess many of live in hope of change of the kind we imagine Obama was trusted to deliver when he was elected, but its anyone's guess whether he'll deliver it.

Meanwhile, Europe, the UK, Russia, China and India, Japan and others will obviously be hanging on his every word as to how he intends to tackle the financial crisis, as without change in the American economy nothing will change here or anywhere else.

As we end 2008, Morgan the women's clothing chain has just gone bust.

The FTSE 100 has lost 30% of its value this year.

Woolworths failed to keep its head above the pond it lay in for nearly 100 years.

The auto industry was knackered by recoiling customers who were vilified and taxed up to their eyeballs by Gordon Brown because they added "waste" to our environment. Well he certainly knows all about waste !

Half the pubs have been shut as much by government as if Brown had gone round himself and done it.

Fags are up, wines, spirits and beers are up.

Holiday operators will likely topple like ten pins next year.

The government is building a runway we don’t need. It's not building nuclear power plants we do need. It's not cutting tax which we need, yet it IS cutting tax on stuff we don’t need.

Don't mention NHS computers or air craft carriers whatever you do !

Meanwhile, we’re all off to the European Federation next year to have our eyes taken out and to have our democracy hung drawn and quartered, and now the government wants to watch our emails, tap our phones and know about the sites we visit in case they miss any of our business.

Doubtless they'll be making tax loopholes for people who "volunteer" to have car speed limiters next year too.

World leader Obama of the US where half this sh!te started, would like to hold a meeting sometime in April on the economic crisis everyone but him is in and are waiting patiently to end before we do.

The UK, Europe, Russia, China and America are throwing people out of work twenty to the dozen, all our homes are going to be as good as a pig in a poke without buyers, the non-elected Prime Minister won’t call an election because he prefers salmon sandwiches as opposed to dog meat like the rest of us, and now the BBC are plugging the Euro and castigating British shopkeepers for having some problem in accepting foreign currency, whilst ours has been smashed to the floor by Brown's hammer.

The TaxPayers Alliance has uncovered monstrous unfairness in earnings between the state and private sectors which will cause division in society.

England is the only place in the UK with charges on its car parks at hospitals where even the staff have to pay to help meet the insulting levels of wages paid by Brown to immigrant doctors whilst 3 to 1 of our own are unemployed or have already had the sense to have left the country.

Public sector pensions are unaffordable, we have no money, but as long as "WE" keep borrowing and spending, then Brown can say "HE" has done a good job of pulling us through the crisis which "HE" started.

Apart from all that, I'm a natural born optimist so I live in eternal hope that there’s no escalation of war in the middle east, which could double or treble oil prices next year not to mention killing hundreds or thousands of innocent people on the way to and thru 2009.

Boris will be a hero if he scraps the current designs for the Olympic Athlete's Village and instead of building the slums of the future, has this redesigned to provide streets of houses with gardens for families.

There is plenty of time and as the taxpayer is almost certainly going to pay for this 100%, he should demand something better than the outdated high-rise, ultra high-density scheme, currently proposed.

In doing so, he would reverse the seemingly endless progress of Morrison's scheme to "build the Tories out of London" and actually provide some Tory housing in Newham!

Jonathan is right to commend the work of Mark Francois on the EPP issue, but in addition we should not forget my good colleague Geoffrey Van Orden MEP, who is also on the case and has done excellent and much-needed work on the ground.

My "one to watch" in 2009 is the FTSE 100. The FTSE 100 stood at 4,445 on 1 May 1997. Today, it closed at 4,434, down 11 points in 11 years. This is a shameful record and demonstrates the failure of this government to create a business friendly environment in the UK. At a time when we should be encouraging self reliance the stock market, on which so many pension funds depend, has ground to a halt under Labour.

Jonathan - I think that you will again be very disappointed when the Conservatives fail to leave the EPP. They have bottled developing an honourably eurosceptic approach too many times before for this time to be any different.

Tim - fair call on Boris, although I still have this deep-seated feeling that David Cameron would love him to fail as he knows he could very easily be replaced by Boris as leader.

However, as the economy becomes THE issue of 2009, I suggest the one to watch is the replacement of George Osborne as Shadow Chancellor when Cameron realises that it's essential to winning the General Election to have a heavyweight in the role. Likely replacement: William Hague. Dark horse: Michael Fallon.

He has been quietly but persistently questioning the government, and as a result he is building up an in depth knowledge of welfare as Shadow Minister for Disabled People. Mark has the sort of background that will make him invaluable in defusing the old Tory Toff’s lie. He has yet to make his mark (no pun intended) in parliament but I feel it will only be a matter of time before the Charismatic Mr Harper becomes a household name. Mark Harper is defiantly my one to watch for 2009.

The person on the Conservative side who I think will generate the greatest acclaim will be IDS whose work is now being looked at closely beyond just the Conservative Party.
The person who I really hope does well is George Osborne. It would be fantastic if he manages to prove the those of us who do not believe he's the right man for the job wrong.

Also keep an eye on Pope Benedict XVI. From a quiet start and being far less of a showman than his predecessor John Paul II he is addressing issues which for too long have been swept under the carpet and is not sacrificing truth for popularity. I am not a Roman Catholic but I admire his leadership.

I agree that Boris Johnstone will be the one to watch in 2009. It will be interesting to see not just how many more advisors he loses but what will be the first terrific balls up.It will come I am sure.
Overall I think 2009 will be dominated by Barek Obama. I think he is set to dominate world politics for many years to come and I suspect that his interventionist policies will boost Gordon Brown.
I am afraid David Cameron is many things but he is no Barek Obama.

It is a no-brainer that Barack Obama will dominate the news in 2009 he will after all be President of the USA from the 20th of this month and as such will be one of a handful of people who can influence the world. The same goes, like him or not, for Vladimir Putin.

I too have my doubts about David Cameron, but hope that I may be proven wrong. As for Gordon Brown however , his failures are as visible as the Mark of Cain.