In scenario planning relative certainties are often thought of as assumptions. Those statements about the future that are very likely to occur and hence they can be written in any scenario. They also do not represent variables or unknowns about the future so they are not typically adjusted to one extreme or the other to enrich a set of strategic planning scenarios.

This page contains a list of "Relative Certainties" for strategic planning scenarios out to 2020. For purposes of this page, these relative certainties are presented in two tiers. The first tier (thirteen) is composed of the most important items for the future out to 2020. They are not listed in any specific order. The second tier (ten) is another set of certainties, but of lesser importance.

The original thirteen certainties were extracted from the National Intelligence Council 2020 project -- "Mapping the Global Future." Please feel free to edit either tier, and move an item from one tier to another. If you do elect to edit the first tier, please post the rational for your change in the discussion section of this page and provide references, or supporting material to explain or justify your suggested changes.