Most if not all of the elected offices on the 2016 Inland ballot will have a choice between two or more candidates.

But right now, a handful of races for assembly, state senate and congressional seats appear to be more competitive than others. Incumbents tend to have a big advantage because they can raise more money and enjoy greater name recognition than their opponents, and many legislative districts are drawn in a way that favors one party.

With 2016 being a presidential election year, the prospects are especially good for Democrats, said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College.

“Turnout will be much higher than it was in 2014,” he said. “Regardless of who the party nominees are, the Democratic candidate is almost certain to carry the state. In close races, Democrats would have an edge.”

Democrats will do particularly well if Donald Trump is the Republican White House nominee, Pitney added. “He would inspire massive turnout among Democrats in general, and Hispanic Democrats in particular,” Pitney said.

Riverside and San Bernardino counties have traditionally been friendly territory for a GOP that has struggled to succeed in California. But Democrats made gains in the Riverside area in 2012, with Mark Takano, Jose Medina and Richard Roth winning open congressional, Assembly and state Senate seats, respectively.

Here’s a look at some races that could be especially competitive next year. That’s not to say other races won’t be close. In 2012, Democrat Raul Ruiz went from major underdog to victor by upsetting veteran Republican Mary Bono for a Riverside County congressional seat.

Why It’s Competitive: The race features three candidates with name recognition and a proven ability to raise cash. That’s important in a contest with no limits on how much donors can give or how much candidates can receive.

Usually, it’s an uphill fight to unseat an incumbent supervisor. But Washington is a Democrat running in a Republican-leaning district that didn’t go for Gov. Jerry Brown in 2014. Brown appointed Washington in March to serve Jeff Stone’s unexpired term after Stone was elected to state Senate.

Lane and Milne, both Republicans, could try to tie Washington to Brown and unpopular Democratic policies. But Washington has been able to win multiple elections as a councilman in Murrieta and Temecula.

Why It’s Competitive: Chabot has called the Dec. 2 terror attack, which occurred in this district, the Inland Empire’s Pearl Harbor and blames Aguilar and President Barack Obama for failing to protect the country.

An Iraq War veteran and reserve naval intelligence officer, Chabot has written a book on how to defeat the Islamic State. Will his national security credentials appeal to voters who may still be rattled by a deadly terrorist attack in their backyard?

The National Republican Congressional Committee also has targeted Aguilar, a first-term congressman, for defeat in 2016.

In 2014, Chabot solidly won first in a competitive primary. Despite being outspent by Aguilar and outside interests, he lost to Aguilar by just under 3,500 votes while beating the former Redlands mayor in Redlands as well as Rancho Cucamonga.

That said, Chabot is the underdog in the rematch. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee worked hard to get Aguilar elected and Democrats don’t want their investment to end after one term.

Aguilar has out-raised Chabot to this point. And higher voter turnout in 2016 stands to benefit Aguilar in the Democrat-friendly district.

“This is one race where a lot will depend on the GOP nominee,” Pitney said.”(Marco) Rubio could make some modest inroads in Hispanic areas and help Republican candidates down the ballot, including Chabot. Trump would be a catastrophe for the party from top to bottom.”

The Rothenberg Political Report, which predicts the outcome of House races, rates the 31st as “Safe Democrat.” The Cook Political Report gives the district a “Likely Democratic” rating.

40TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

Represents: Highland, Loma Linda, most of Rancho Cucamonga, Redlands and most of the city of San Bernardino.

Why It’s Competitive: Sacramento’s eyes could be on this district as Democrats seek to add to their legislative majority.

“Assembly District 40 is again going to be a battleground race with Republican and Democratic voter registration running neck and neck,” said California Democratic Party spokesman Michael Soller. “Democrats’ record in balancing the state’s budget while building a rainy day fund gives us an edge with voters who have to juggle their own family budgets.”

“Marc Steinorth voted with the Republican extremists against clean energy legislation, and that’s going to hurt him with voters.”

Matt Rexroad, a Sacramento political consultant working with Steinorth, said the assemblyman has a strong record of supporting job growth and has the backing of business groups.

“His voting record fits his district very well,” Rexroad said.

Democrats held the edge in the district’s voter registration until last year, when the GOP surged ahead. The district went for Obama in 2012, when Democrat Russ Warner almost defeated then-Republican Assemblyman Mike Morrell.

Medina’s been busy racking up endorsements from local community figures and Democrats from across the state. But beating Steinorth, a first-term assemblyman, won’t be easy. He’s a former Rancho Cucamonga councilman who’s already raised more than $200,000 for his re-election bid.

47TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

Represents: Part of the city of San Bernardino, Bloomington, Colton, Fontana, Grand Terrace and Rialto.

Why It’s Competitive: In a battle of Democrats, Brown will be challenged by Reyes, who ran for the 31st Congressional District in 2014.

Reyes seemingly came out of nowhere to mount a well-funded and organized congressional campaign, securing the endorsement of the liberal group EMILY’s List and Los Angeles Rep. Xavier Becerra among other prominent Democrats. She ran as the progressive alternative to establishment favorite Aguilar but finished fourth out of seven candidates in the primary.

Brown, who’s established a reputation as a more moderate Democrat, has her share of endorsements as well. But her vote against new vaccine regulations and her reluctance to support legislation that would have cut petroleum use by motor vehicles by half by 2030 could be used against her in 2016.

Jeff Horseman got into journalism because he liked to write and stunk at math. He grew up in Vermont and he honed his interviewing skills as a supermarket cashier by asking Bernie Sanders “Paper or plastic?” After graduating from Syracuse University in 1999, Jeff began his journalistic odyssey at The Watertown Daily Times in upstate New York, where he impressed then-U.S. Senate candidate Hillary Clinton so much she called him “John” at the end of an interview. From there, he went to Annapolis, Maryland, where he covered city, county and state government at The Capital newspaper before love and the quest for snowless winters took him in 2007 to Southern California, where he started out covering Temecula for The Press-Enterprise. Today, Jeff writes about Riverside County government and regional politics. Along the way, Jeff has covered wildfires, a tropical storm, 9/11 and the Dec. 2 terror attack in San Bernardino. If you have a question or story idea about politics or the inner workings of government, please let Jeff know. He’ll do his best to answer, even if it involves a little math.

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