Pakistan’s nukes: How many are enough?

It is well known that there are two operational un-safeguarded plutonium-producing reactors at Khushab (with a third one under construction). PHOTO: EPA/FILE

The latest news from America must have thrilled many: Pakistan probably has more nuclear weapons than India. A recent Washington Post article, quoting various nuclear experts, suggests that Pakistan is primed to “surge ahead in the production of nuclear-weapons material, putting it on a path to overtake Britain as the world’s fifth largest nuclear weapons power”.

Some may shrug off this report as alarmist anti-Pakistan propaganda, while others will question the accuracy of such claims. Indeed, given the highly secret nature of nuclear programmes everywhere, at best one can only make educated guesses on weapons and their materials. For Pakistan, it is well known that the Kahuta complex has been producing highly enriched uranium for a quarter century, and that there are two operational un-safeguarded plutonium-producing reactors at Khushab (with a third one under construction). Still, the exact amounts of bomb-grade material and weapons are closely held secrets.

But for argument’s sake, let’s assume that the claims made are correct. Indeed, let us suppose that Pakistan surpasses India in numbers – say by 50 per cent or even 100 per cent. Will that really make Pakistan more secure? Make it more capable of facing current existential challenges?

The answer is, no. Pakistan’s basic security problems lie within its borders: growing internal discord and militancy, a collapsing economy, and a belief among most citizens that the state cannot govern effectively. These are deep and serious problems that cannot be solved by more or better weapons. Therefore the way forward lies in building a sustainable and active democracy, an economy for peace rather than war, a federation in which provincial grievances can be effectively resolved, elimination of the feudal order and creating a tolerant society that respects the rule of law.

Pakistanis have long imagined the Bomb as a panacea for all ills. It became axiomatic that, in addition to providing total security, the Bomb would give help us liberate Kashmir, give Pakistan international visibility, create national pride and elevate the country’s technological status. But these promises proved empty.

The Bomb did nothing to bring Kashmiri liberation closer. India’s grip on Kashmir is tighter today than it has been for a long time and is challenged only by the courageous uprising of Kashmiris. Pakistan’s strategy for confronting India — secret jihad by Islamic fighters protected by Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella — backfired terribly after Kargil and nearly turned Pakistan into an international pariah. More importantly, today’s hydra-headed militancy owes to the Kashmiri and Afghan mujahideen who avenged their betrayal by Pakistan’s army and politicians by turning their guns against their former sponsors and trainers.

What became of the claim that pride in the bomb would miraculously weld together the disparate peoples who constitute Pakistan? While many in Punjab still want the bomb, angry Sindhis want water and jobs — and they blame Punjab for taking these away. Karachi staggers along with multiple ethnically motivated killings; Muhajirs and Pakhtuns are locked in a deadly battle. As for the Baloch, they are in open revolt. They resent that the two nuclear test sites — now radioactive and out of bounds — are on their soil. Angry at being governed from Islamabad, some have taken up arms and demand that army cantonments be dismantled. The Bomb was no glue.

Some might ask, didn’t the Bomb stop India from swallowing up Pakistan? The answer is, no. First, an upward-mobile India has no reason to want an additional 180 million Muslims. Second, even if India wanted to, territorial conquest is impossible. Conventional weapons, used by Pakistan in a defensive mode, are sufficient protection. If the mighty American python could not digest Iraq or Afghanistan, there is zero chance for a middling power like India to occupy Pakistan, a country four times larger than Iraq.

It is, of course, true that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons deterred India from launching punitive attacks at least thrice since the 1998 tests. India could do nothing after Pakistan’s secret incursion in Kargil during 1999, the Dec 13 attack on the Indian parliament the same year (initially claimed by Jaish-i-Muhammad), or the Mumbai attack in 2008 by Lashkar-i-Taiba. So should we keep the Bomb to protect militant groups? Surely it is time to realise that conducting foreign policy in this manner will buy us nothing but disaster after disaster.

It was a lie that the Bomb could protect Pakistan, its people or its armed forces. Rather, it has helped bring us to this grievously troubled situation and offers no way out. It is time for Pakistan to drop its illogical opposition to the Fissile Materials Cutoff Treaty which, incidentally, would impact India far more than Pakistan. We need fewer bombs on both sides, not more.

The author teaches nuclear and particle physics in Islamabad and Lahore

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Reader Comments (93)

It’s a money making business .. why would the military stop!! Are there any brakes to stop? Generals get richer and richer and common man poorer and poorer everyday.

In a real democracy, civilian leaders make the decisions and generals obey? But in Pakistan civilian leaders go to jail or to another country if they question the military! And the military-mullah have made a strong alliance to support each other.

Military military-mullah alliance was responsible for the events leading to 1971 and for the events leading to current debilitating situation of Pakistan.

And Pakistanis are not brave or brainy enough to go like Tunisia or Egypt.

So let the military keep making nukes till Pakistan go broke!Recommend

One can argue that beyond the deterrence level we have created, this capability has created a center of gravity which has attracted unnecessary attention.
Meanwhile, one can argue that we are experiencing an Egypt every day for the last few years since BB’s assassination, it aftermath was a rampage (that is what happens in Pakistan), the lawyers movement, the target killings, daska vigilantism (on and on). Meanwhile the only difference is that lootings, which are occurring, this government is the leading force. Beware those in the path of the pillage. When do we get an answer of how much is enough for these bozo’s?Recommend

The Pakistani strategy of acquiring more bombs truly makes no sense, unless they are planning their way out of broke through retail. What is the point for additional reactors, more weapons and so on.

When the news broke, someone on twitter said, and it got retweeted heavily that someone else should be afraid of the weapons increase, because India couldn’t be more afraid than it already was.

It is a sad moral state that the NATIONAL POLICY of a country lies in terrorist attacks given impunity through nuclear blackmail. How do they hope for lawful behaviour from citizens? They are bleeding themselves with a thousand cuts, but with the true mentality of a suicide bomber, they don’t care as long as it hurts India. Expecting such thinking to look after things like healthcare and education would be like expecting a suicide bomber to care about getting a manicure or degree before he kills himself.

If the country wants to fix all the terrorism internally, they need to fix their own ways of going about things. And it is really serious. Pakistan is suffering far less from ‘enemies’ than it is from itself.Recommend

The bomb has been a deterrent for Pakistan. No denying that. Whether Pakistan should have gone nuclear is a debatable point. However, Dr Hoodbhoy’s concern with Pakistan’s “real” security needs are on the spot. What is unfortunate even as we like to think of ourselves as a Nuclear Power of the first degree, millions of Pakistanis are suffering as a result of floods, poor economic conditions, terrorism and war.

I think Pakistan is holding out on FMCT as a bargaining tool for eventual entry into the “nuclear club.” Pakistan deems India to have gotten into the club by default through the US-India agreement of 2008. Pakistan chances of going into a similar agreement with the US or even China are slim at this time, not least, due to the AQ Khan saga. The West is concerned about proliferation not only from this aspect but also from the point of view of the war in Afghanistan and increasing militancy inside Pakistan. Dr Hoodbhoy would have done well to have shed some light on Pakistani concerns that taking the foot of the nuclear accelerator would leave Pakistan vulnerable to outside action to “denuclearize” Pakistan. It is to be expected that contingency plans for “securing” Pakistani nukes do exist. What is a totally different matter is whether those plans could be implemented when the time comes.

The question that needs addressing by Pakistan is regarding the extent and scope of our minimal deterrent and whether we are truly pursuing that goal or something else. Having established that the next step would be to focus energy and resources on our development needs (clean drinking water, electricity, good governance, extremism etc). Recommend

After 2001 parliament attack and after 2008 Mumbai terrorist mayhem, generally Pakistani response to Indians was “he he you can not retaliate”…

All india has to do is to boost security infrastructure to thwart terrorism,and reduce the damage caused by Pakistani terrorism, while simultaneously preserving india’s economic growth. There are other ways to ensure Pakistan pays price for it’s mischief.

Anyway what Pakistan wishes for india is happening to itself….destruction.Recommend

It is wrong to assume that India will not make a punitive strike because Pakistan has atomic bomb. India has made abudently clear that it may make such a strike. To Pakistan as well as to master of Pakistan, United states of America.Recommend

Instead of boasting the century of bombs we should focus on the ground realities which includes a third of population below poverty level, our education and health care sytem gone to dogs and within our elites, plunder the order of the day.

Our ‘aitum bums’ never gave us the respect, credibility, leverage or might that we craved and hoped for- Very true.
What it has in fact done is to propel us in the global limelight where every nation that fears the taliban, clergy and our ideologically confused majority is drawing up plans to mitigate the scenario where one of these ‘bums’ fall in the hand of the followers of Hamid Gul or Zaid Hamid…
We use our nuclear armed position to force others to negotiate with us, to bail us out, to lend us money and to take us seriously.
We are like the kid on school that has never done well in studies or sports but has become tall and powerful and uses his size to bully others into giving him their lunch and to do his homework.
If only we used that much energy, passion, money, commitment and determination to educate our masses or to create new industry instead of building and expanding “aitum bums enterprise”, we would be a much desirable nation and people – Think Turkey, Malaysia, Morocco and Indonesia. Not super powers but otherwise quite healthy, content nations without the need of ‘aitum bums’ to demonstrate their strength.

@Ajaya: Pakistan’s Master has changed over time.. It used to be US during the time of Soviet Union. Now their Master is China, who has carefully chosen a gullible country to dump their junk. Pakis are so blind with hatred against India, that they spoiled their country by handshaking with US earlier, and now their entire economy, military, nuclear program etc. is subservient to the chinese. Feels sad to see that their entire small and medium sector business is wiped out with cheap chinese products. Their power sector, railways, highway infra everything is dependent on chinese who are milking pakistani money. Pakis need to open their eyes wider and see the game they are in with US and China playing with them. Both China and US are using them. Leaders are making money, common citizens suffering. Recommend

We are a nuclear power and we are excelling in it, isn’t a bad news for our nation, but the problems we face are not just of security. Our strained economy is the biggest problem which we have always overlooked at we need to address and resolve it seriously. Nuclear proliferation would result in a nuclear competition especially with India. We have to think about other kind of competitions in the economic sector to lead the country and its people towards development and prosperity.Recommend

I work with Pakistanis everyday and I find them to be very good engineers. I am of Indian origin and I believe that your economic problems will be easy to solve. With most Pakistanis here doing quite well, I think IT business can thrive in Pakistan as well. Everything else will follow believe.Recommend

i respect the author for his excellence in academics. but his nuclear pacificism is beyond understanding.he should revist the indian statements after they conducted 98 nuclear tests.
why india is spending millions of dollar over ballistic missile systems, what is the rationale behind Cold start doctrine. why it is not accepting any arms control agreement with pakistan
and last but not the least what will those 8 nuclear reactors do when they are not under the safeguards of IAEA.
things are not that simple as they seems are or as they are projected.Recommend

And the worst damage caused by the nuclearisation is the incentive and motivation to the Taliban/terrorist groups to lay a hand on them and I think that is one of the reasons for the strife in PakistanRecommend

Based on the article, having nukes hasn’t strategically changed anything. So what difference does it make whether Pak have 10 or 10000 nukes? What Mr.PH always fails to mention is the internal political control of the nukes that makes matters worst for Pakistan politically. Nukes should be under the civilian control and that would make the difference. Not the number of nukes.Recommend

Being a Pakistani I feel the nuclear bombs that Pakistan already have are enough to safeguard external threat, however, now is the time for the Gov to focus on the internal bomb that can explode any minute in the shape of anarchy and lawlessness. Having said that one can argue the good or bad of Pakistan current situation but do not forget Pakistan is in the state of war and the world instead of helping Pakistan always point fingers at Pakistan. US spend billions of dollars every year on its war in Afghanistan and for Pakistan they have just misely 2 billion which is nothing as compared to what Pakistan is spending on this war. If world is really sincere they should first help Pakistan with the tools required to win the war which Pakistan does not have. For instance, the police in Pakistan does not even have proper desks in their precincts let alone the modern technology and equipment required to combat terrorism. Recommend

I think now we need this technology for our energy need more than any stockpile of bombs. These atom bombs didn’t save Russia from splitting in many small states, as our economy is the main point to ponder, plan and execute now a days.

Energy shortfall is one of may root cause of economic downward, if we can direct our efforts to provide energy trough these atomic reactors it would be beneficial to people and region also. Recommend

They are enough as long as they’re working perfectly as deterrent for us to which they ACTUALLY are. we never started this nuclear arm’s race,Our good for nothing neighbour did.

Though Yes,there is MORE to our problems than some of us or rather most of us thinking it’ll solve our major problems because it wont and it never did,It only solved the ‘Deterrent’ problem. Since im a huge huge fan of pervez hoodbhoy but have and will always disagree over ‘nuclear’ issue because like i said,we NEVER started this race,we were made to do it .but I also have to agree on more points as well,that is why ,what is rather more sad that even after this, we think we’re doing wonderful as a nuclear power whereas millions of Pakistanis are suffering due to bad Economy,corruption,terrorism,recent floods and what not.Recommend

One point yet unmentioned in the discourse is that the present energy crisis facing the country is that all electricity being produced is eaten up by the running of the uranium and plutonium producing nuclear reactors thus leaving us the scraps for domestic, commercial and industrial use. The economy is being destroyed while we keep the bombs alive…. There is no shortage of produced electricity. The drain due to powering the reactors is causing the shortage and causing suffering to millions. Recommend

war with india is so un understandable!wars are fought with countries with whom we have ideological,cultural,langage differences!europe fought wars, got hold of itself and realized why the heck are we fighting when we have so much in common!in the subcontinent indians and pakistanis are not different at all we should not be fighting rather we should be dealing with terrorism!!the people of pakistan need to change india-centric thinking!our massive security apparatus should be directed towards extremist societies towards our west namely the saudis,iranians and afghanistan! they have already tried alot to spread their extremist version of islam in pakistani society!!!Pakistan its high time we should realize that we should look towards the east and not the west!!try adopting the resilience india has in retaining democracy and secularism!had we known india would go secular we would not have had a partition!!!Recommend

Dr. HoodBouy is ever concerned with Pakistan defensive capablity but has neverbeen critical of our adversary’s ill intentions. If he is so capable of such authoritative comments he then also needs to once analyze Indian expenditures and its intentions.
Why does India spends so much on its Armed Forces when it can not use its Mechanized Forces( the bulk of its main punch) against China due to the Gigantic Obstacle of Himalayan Range which effectively prohibits any mechanized operation against China.
It then effectively means that all its offensive preparations are against Pakistan, because 90% of its army assets are deployed against Pakistan.
I would definitely ask Mr. Hoodbouy to once carryout a thorough analysis of India Capabilities and its employment against China and Pakistan and put us wise that in his analysis Pakistan doesn’t need any defensive preparations. Recommend

The so called Courageous Kashmiris happens to be terrorist infiltrators pushed in from Pakistan. The so called leaders of Courageous Kashmiris are Pakistan stooges. Ask yourself, who in their right mind want to join Pakistan since people of PoK is so well taken care off, a model state of benevolence isn’t it?

Isn’t Muhajir Urdu speaking Muslims that emigrated from India during partition? They are also well treated, aren’t they?

Pakistan has more internal problem it handle. Hey may be the next strategic thrust is to build an ICBM to reach CONUS to achieve strategic parity with the US. Now that’s is a worthy goal!Recommend

Pakistani’s arsenal is purely India centric but not the other way. India has to be prepared for not only Pakistan but also for China which is a bigger threat. Even if India’s is greater, which is not, it is unfair to compare the numbers between Pakistan and India. Pakistan can spend enormous amount of money on bombs instead of welfare measures, industry or education but expects the donor nations to honour their promise. Do I miss something here? Recommend

There is strawman after strawman built into this article. No one was hoping for nuclear weapons to resolve the crises facing the economy or internal security, nor has the nuclear program been primarily responsible for the economic and internal security challenges Pakistan faces.

Pakistans economic problems continue to be due to poor governance and mismanagement. Pakistan loses over $3 billion per year on loss making Public Sector Companies such as Pakistan Steel, PIA etc. That is almost equal to the entire defence budget, forget just the nuclear program. Our politicians refuse to enact tax and other reforms. There is no independent LEA or prosecution service to act against crime fairly, and our leadership continues to fail in delivering basic services.

Pakistan’s problems will not be resolved, nor are they created, by our nuclear program, but by our leadership delivering on basic governance, reforms and the strengthening of all institutions.

Arguments against the nuclear program or the military for self-serving pacifist agenda’s, ignoring Pakistan’s geo-political realities, is dishonest and a disservice to the nation in that it ignores the real issues behind economic and security problems, and seeks to pin them all on convenient bogeymen of ‘The nuclear program’ and ‘The Military’.Recommend

We are a beggar nation not because of our nuclear program, but because of poor governance and corruption, where we lose billions of dollars each year on loss making public companies, and billions more on poor planning, mismanagement and corruption by our coterie of ‘ministers’.

The billions of dollars lost each year because of the above far outweigh the money spent on defence and the nuclear program.Recommend

There was an article by A Q Khan, in which he said that due to unique circumstances surrounding the making of the Pakistani Bomb, this project succeeded. But Pakistan is not able to replicate this model of success in any other sphere such as civilian power nuclear reactors, or thar coal mining project or reqo diq copper mining project and advocated handing over these projects to foreign companies particularly chinese.Recommend

@ravian ali:
The answer is china. China, the tibet issue (India shelters the Dalai Lama, many tibetans look up to India), the unresolved chinese border, the 1962 war with china are all an issue and because China has nuclear weapons, India must as well.

But as the author states, i don’t think many indians will want to welcome 180 million mohamedans because there are already about 250 million anyway. Add another couple of hundred million, and the dynamics of electoral politics in india will change, maybe become much more islamic. And that’s not a good thing, as you might have noticed yourself in pakistan? In fact, my older relatives always said with a chuckle that partition was good otherwise we would have too many mullah muslims than we can handle.Recommend

Does the Pakistani administration understand economics at all? US,Russia,UK,France, China and India are all desperately trying to roll back from their programs because THEY cannot afford the luxury of nukes.
A case of fools rushing in where angels fear to tread.Recommend

As a oppressed Dalit Hindu from Gujarat I feel that Pakistan must continue building and amassing nuclear weapons for its security, Pakistan has the right to self defence and history has shown that India loves to attack its smaller neighbours, Pakistan, Goa, Sikkim, Sri Lanka by supporting terrorist groups such as the Tamil Tigers, Mukthi Bahini and through miltiary intervention, Indeed India even attempted to attack China in 1962 and lost Aksai Chin.

If the last 65 odd years teach anything it is that India will attack its neighbours if it feels they are unable to retaliate, What Pakistan, China, Sri Lanka need to do is form an Indian containment policy to keep India firmly locked within the geographic, political and military sphere of south Asia and squash any false sense of world aspirations in the hearts and minds of the Indian people.

For 65 years now, We Indians have failed to free the area of Kashmir occupied by Pakistan, We attempted to strangle Pakistan at birth and failed, We introduced nuclear weapons to threaten and coerce Pakistan and it failed, India’s policy has always failed towards its neighbours and its time for new thinking.Recommend

Agnostic Muslim,
Please substantiate your claim. It’s not enough to be dismissive. UK has done the necessary military cuts to meet budgetary constraints and keep a favorable credit rating. Surely, Pakistan has less favorable economic conditions than UK? What sort of message does this news send to Pakistani lenders like the IMF?Recommend

I do think it makes a difference to keep peace , not to make war. India has to think several times before they did what they did in 1971. When something eliminates one’s size advantage than a parity is established and peace is more likely than war. There had been several occasions during cold war when both Powers did not go to full invasions due to the acknowledgement of destructive capacity of other. U.S could attacK Soviet Union if it had no nukes, just like Hitler did when they had none. Therefore, to me its a peace keeping tool for smaller nations or with less resources. Recommend

ha ha ha …nice try..we know where you are from…your classic pakistani rants/lies are too obvious for you to pretend you are a “dalit hindu”…

Through your fakery, what is obvious is your delusion “dalit hindus” are not part of Indian family. There are all kinds of internal disputes in India, but “dalit hindus” are in the Indian military, civil service, are chief ministers (soon there could be a PM), have been President of India, and Chief Justice..Recommend

Well written piece. One can always trust Dr. Hoodbhoy to bring the voice of reason and sanity to the discourse. I would add that Pakistan would make far better use of these resources if they were diverted in revamping and overhauling the abysmal education system. A change of mind-set is desperately needed to pull the nation our of the quagmire it finds itself in – economically and existentially.
Concentrating more on education and social change will send the RIGHT message to the international community – that Pakistan is serious about progress and peaceful coexistence and establishing a just and equitable society.
Increasing arsenal and making “more and better bombs” does not fill empty stomachs, provide shelter and restores real dignity – of human beings – not fabricated and imagined “national pride”.

Sadly though not many are willing and able to heed the voice of reason Dr. Hoodbhoy raises tirelessly and against all odds.Recommend

The billions of dollars lost every year through the largest loss making PSC’s?

Most recently this figure was quoted by Ambassador Munter, other estimates have been even larger, and obviously the figure fluctuates depending on how the major PSE’s perform in any particular year:

Referring to the privatisation programme, he noted that this should be expedited to get rid of loss incurring by state-owned enterprises which are causing huge losses to the revenue. During 2010,they have caused losses to the tune of $ 3 billion and observed that they can work efficiently in the private sector.http://www.aaj.tv/2010/12/us-ambassador-visits-mqm-headquarters-90/

As far as ‘billions more lost to mismanagement and inefficient governance’ just look at estimates of economic losses from the electricity shortage. Look at how the Sindh government in fact arm twisted the privatized KESC into rehiring 4000 workers that it planned to lay off to become more efficient and reduce losses. Government mismanagement not only results in direct losses for these entities, but also significant downstream losses in terms of associated corruption and the impact of inefficient services and products delivered by these companies.

Add in the opportunity cost of the schools, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure these billions of dollars a year could fund, and the economic impact on Pakistan is enormous – at least tens of billions of dollars a year – and none of this has anything to do with the nuclear program or the defence budget.

Criticism of the nuclear program and defence budget is merely a distraction from the mismanagement of the political parties. They don’t want to reform and ‘lose’ their cash cows in the corrupt, loss making public sector companies, which the parties fill with their loyalists as bribes and payoffs for support, and to come up with the billions they lose, they encourage targeting the military and nuclear program through irrelevant and incorrect arguments such as the ones in this article.Recommend

It is an easy task for any one in the country to impose his idea on others and that is what you have done while writing this very article.

I differ with your write up and have full conviction that nuclear bomb for Pakistan was a must.

You go back in the history and evaluate the events of 1971 when India made East Pakistan into Bangladesh. And this just happened 24 years after the independence. At that time, Pakistan was not a nuclear state.

Had Pakistan be a nuclear state prior to 1971, India would have not at all dared to separate East Pakistan from West Pakistan.

Now if Pakistan is making more bombs than India so why are you worried? May I ask you a question? Are you an Indian national or patriotic Pakistani?

Coming back on “Pakistan’s basic security problems lie within its borders, growing internal discord, militancy and collapsing economy” these are the issues which can be addressed through good governance in the country which lack in all most all the political parties.

Unless Pakistan will not be governed by the selfless political leaders, the scenario will not change.

How can one expect that when political candidates pay exorbitant amount of money to their party leaders to obtain party ticket for contesting in general elections and thereafter invest billions of rupees in election campaign, sooner they are elected they not only recover the initial amount invested in obtaining a seat in the assembly but they also mint money to save the future of their generations.

Basically, corruption is the core issue which is eating Pakistan like a cancer. We need a leader like Mahatir Mohamad of Malaysia in Pakistan. Unless we could not find a similar leader in Pakistan, people will have to face similar consequences which will keep on making the headlines of the local and foreign print and electronic media. Recommend

question to all -pakistan relations with russia,afghanistan,bangladesh are what are they good
do pakistan have missile shield to destroy upcoming missiles and aircraft which not comes in radar
and what about terrorism inside -pakistan taliban is it finished
what about earthquake proof scaffolding constructionRecommend

The main existential threat of Pakistan is not Terrorism. It is your ARMY. This institution has eaten up your economy, this institution has nursed Terrorism, this institution is supporting Terrorism, this institution has not allowed democracy to stabilize. And this is the institution which has stopped Pakistan to normalize relations with India, Afghanistan.
Your country is a failed state just because of this – ARMY. It eats up your national budget, it runs its own enterprises, it is full of corruption, but no one to tell this, it eats up any foreign loan, aid, grants, etc.
The day Pakistan controls its ARMY, all of your problems will vanish within a years time. Pakistan is not democracy, it is MILITOCRACY, run by military. You people are living in fools paradise. Recommend

Realistically speaking, I think Pakistan did require a nuclear deterrent once we Indians went nuclear. We needed a deterrent against China, so obviously Pakistan needed a deterrent against us. But the author and many others like him in Pakistan have raised the pertinent question as to how many nuclear weapons Pakistan actually needs? I think that the Pakistani army, which of course controls power in Pakistan, has actually gone paranoid about the conventional military superiority of India. India, with its economic success has sufficient money to modernise its military and this has made the Pakistani Generals jittery to the extreme. Pakistan just doesn’t have the cash to match the Indian military superiority and at best they hope to get some weapon systems in aid form America. The Pakistani army bosses feel that the best way to deter India is by making as many bombs as possible. This may not make any strategic sense but then army Generals are hardly ever known for their intellectual capabilities. I have heard many people say that Pakistan may go down like the USSR if it keeps competing with India militarily. But I totally disagree with this theory. Let us not forget that the USSR, even when it was collapsing, had the “self respect” and didn’t blackmail the Americans to bail them out or else their 35000 nuclear weapons would fall in wrong hands. But the Pakistanis, as we are aware have the mastered the craft of nuclear blackmail. In case Pakistan is the on the brink, you would see the Americans coming to the rescue and saving the errant Pakistani Generals. Pakistan should remain intact by whatever way possible since we Indians will bear the catastrophic consequences of its break up. Recommend

@Sandy: please spare us. I think you know whom you are following by just looking at the pile of junk you have called lethal arsenal. Its all Russian (if u don’t know). Look at the quality of that pile. And you are getting that pile for Devali. Plz……. Just to get name of 5th generation fighter who is getting those 300+ no trialed fighters. Do u think u r getting that just to fight Bangladesh / Nepal / Srilanka? or preparing for alien invasion. Plz have a heart. If you can change ur ally for good to USA the we can also do that. They are allies not friends; China is getting benefit so we are. This also hold good for your country and USSR or USA.

@Ravian ali: good opinion.

We, in govt org, are spending in few projects just to avoid giving that money to govt coz we know that it will not be used for good, already tried that. So its good to get something than returning funds to govt. The real problem is Administration and Governance. Till then time they are not solved we can’t progress, Let there be change this time by not voting for already tried political parties and put our hopes on something new. Recommend

By GOD, till the day we have people like this writer amongst us who claim themselves to be Pakistani or at least MUSLIMS, we cant and wont be able to control the situation or terrorism. People like Hoodbhoy are appointed speakers and writers in to create a public opinion that in effect creates a negative impact. There are thousands of people working for and making strategic policies on our nuclear system. They are far more better in thinking what hoodbhoy thinks of our Nuclear program.

I can quote many others in the league of domestic hired traitors fed by external powers to dismantle their own land. These are such who would eventually facilitate spies like Raymond Davis who are too dangerous for us. US spies and diplomats have been caught countless times near kahuta and now in the heart of Lahore where supposedly shouldn’t have been rolling with knives, banned guns, wire cutters, binoculars and cameras along with sensitve digital tracking and GPS devices.

Poverty, illiteracy, intolerance and fanaticism are the biggest EXISTENTIAL threats to Pakistan. FULL STOP
The chant that a grass-eating malnourished country possesses a nuclear weapon is more a horrific fact than an argument of pride.

Literacy, tolerance and wisdom are and will be the only deterrence for this country. I may be getting too theoretical but seriously do we need more fresh water or yellow cake? The choice is entirely ours. Recommend

@Alien001: Dude.. after all its your money. Do whatever you feel like. Who cares. Indian’s dont bother what you guys do with your tax payer money, as long as you peacefully stay within your borders. I think India has many more things to worry about rather than showing concern to Pak. India will continue to invest according to its threat perception and global role, and Pak according to its. As long as Pak can afford it.. go ahead, we don’t care much. We are enjoying the current scene in Pak from across the border. Thanks for putting up a free amusement for us reading everyday Paki news and witnessing its failure in economy, social, health, education, infra, trade, debts, sports, rising extremism, geo politics, declining international reputation, .. the list goes. With growing number of Indians in the forum everyday, you can see how much we are amused with paki news !! Thanks for the free fun…. Recommend

Such articles or speeches only look good in movies with a background music on. Raincheck Mr. Dexter, give us a solution rather than enlisting all the problems we have, and if you can’tthen go back to your lab where you belong and leave the policy making to the experts.Recommend

ISLAMABAD:Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) has declared losses of Rs41 billion in the last two years whereas total net worth of the organisation is not more than Rs16 billion.
Senator Tariq Azeem presided over a meeting on Monday of the subordinate committee of the Senate standing committee on defence and reviewed the five-year revival plan of the PIA.
PIA managing director Ijaz Haroon informed the committee that PIA had a deficit of Rs41.7 billion in the last two years. In 2008 alone, the company incurred a loss of Rs35.88 billion.http://tribune.com.pk/story/80280/pia-suffers-rs41b-losses-in-two-years/

There is no way this kind of revenue can be raised through cuts in the defence budget and nuclear program, not to mention the increase in tax revenues if these entities actually become profitable, and maybe even expand.

So the ‘drain on the country’ is not the Army and its businesses, that, unlike the enterprises on the civilian side, actually are well managed, run profits and pay hundreds of billions in taxes to the State, and whose profits are in fact used to provide benefits to Military retirees, wounded, widows of martyrs and deceased soldiers, children etc.

The ‘drain on the country’ are these PSE’s that cause billions of dollars of direct and indirect losses to the country every year.Recommend

I may be getting too theoretical but
seriously do we need more fresh water
or yellow cake? The choice is entirely
ours.

Given that the nuclear program is hardly the largest drain on Pakistan’s resources, as I have illustrated in some detail in my previous posts, the choice you paint is a false one. The true choice remains a choice between continued mismanagement of the economy and poor governance and corruption in the PSE’s, and proper development.

Without resolving the extremely deep rooted problems on the civilian side, especially in the PSE’s, Pakistan will continue to hemorrhage billions of dollars every year that could be used for education, health, infrastructure and industry, laying the groundwork for real growth. Compared to the money lost here, proposed cuts in the defence budget and nuclear program is a pittance, and will do nothing to resolve the deep rooted issues driving Pakistan to bankruptcy.

After cutting the defence budget and nuclear program, and saving, at most, a few hundred million dollars a year, we will be back to where we are now in a few years, facing the same situation since the above mentioned problems will not have been resolved. Recommend

Despite my deep regard for the author, I disagree with him on a two points:
1. First of all, it would seem correct that India would not want to invade, occupy and absorb Pakistan; what reason would it have to? However, the author misses from the equation the enormous strategic importance of Pakistan. First of all, it is geo-strategically positioned to be part of the corridor as well as the port for the Central Asian oil/gas pipeline, for which NATO is fighting the Afghan war. Secondly, it is positioned to serve as a corridor and port for Middle-Easter and African resources for China, allowing China to bypass the Pacific shipping route, which is heavily infested with NATO/US naval presence. Third, Pakistan has coal, which in liquid form, is worth more than the entire oil reserves of Saudi Arabia and Iran combined.
So India would definitely have a strong motivation in absorbing Pakistan if it could.
2. Secondly, I just wanted to bring up my reservation with implicating Pakistan in the Mumbai attacks. Although there has been no proof so far that Pakistan was involved in the attacks (except that its territory was used), there is plenty of evidence that David Headley helped planned the attacks, and that he was a CIA agent. (This is a claim made by the Indian government itself but apparently both the Indian and Pakistani governments have been ‘silenced’ regarding it by the powers that be; I will not lay down the evidence here, but it is easily available on the Internet.) Recommend

@ Uzair Javed:
“By GOD, till the day we have people like this writer amongst us who claim themselves to be Pakistani or at least MUSLIMS, we cant and wont be able to control the situation or terrorism…”

You are what is wrong with Pakistan. You not only swear by God to which you are not sure of, but you cast aspersion to another person’s patriotism or religion just because he has a different point of view.

So Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy cannot claim himself as a Pakistani or a Muslim because he is questioning the use of building a device that could kill tens of thousands of fellow humans..? And one which has not done anything to turn us into civilized nation and people ?

It is people like you that are right wing, emotionally charged, excitable and ready to call others non-pakistani and non muslims which is Pakistan’s true problems. We are ready to judge others and bring God into the debate and label them as non muslims whilst having zero ability to introspection into our own selves.

In your 2 sentences, you have done the following:
1) You are bringing God and swearing by it as if you have more wisdom and objectivity and knowledge than all other scholars, thinkers, learned people put together. In other words you are using God in your argument to bring conviction , something our clergy does all the time to intimidate others.
2) You are casting doubt on Dr Hoodbhoy’s sincerity as a Pakistani.
3) You are casting doubt on Dr Hoodbhoy’s religious beliefs because you have a different point of view than him.
4) You are inferring Dr Hoodbhoy to be a ‘traitor’ because he has the ability to question status quo.
5) You are inferring that not only is he a traitor he is being “fed by external powers” so questioning his integrity and accusing him of doing so on the behest of a monetary reward.

Uzair, do you not see the paradox that we have as a nation ? Those that have dissenting point of view are labelled as unpatriotic, unworthy to be called pakistanis, unworthy to be called muslims, are meant to be serving foreign powers, are corrupt and traitors…! This you reserve for one of the most well known and learned scholars of this nation.
Do you understand that it is because of such attitude that we are labelled as the most dangerous place on the planet and terrorists churning factory ?
You represent the typical mentality that plagues this nation of illiterates, bigots and hypocrites.
HarisRecommend

@Dalit Hindu
Oppression of any human being is wrong. Your struggle to organize politcally, challenge the opressors peacefuly and attain a better life are commendable. Indeed they are. The achievements of the dalits are stagerring. However, your anger must not eclipse your objectivity. India did not attack Pakistan. Mukti Bahini was not a terrorist outfit. Nuclear weapons were not ‘introduced’ by India to threaten Pakistan or any other state. The facts are just the opposite. Educate yourself by reading accounts of a cross section of learned scholars from around the world including Pakistan. Recommend

How prophetic this discussion was. In the rally on Kashmir Solidarity day, Saif Ullah Mansoor said that barbed wires would fail to stop Mujahideen from hoisting the Jehad flag in Srinagar. He urged the rulers not to be scared of India, as Pakistan is an atomic power and the leverage should be used for Kashmir solution.Recommend

The real effect of Pak’s nukes is that it has attracted all the global Jihadi extremists to Pakistan. The nukes are the reason that Osama, Alqaeda and other Islamic terrorists chose Pakistan as the place of their residence. Their aim is to radicalize Pakistani society and ultimately take over Pakistan and more importantly Pakistani nukes. These Jihadis want the power of the nukes in their hands to take their Jihad to the Kufar nations, especially the West.

As for the Indians, all they have to do is just sit tight, keep growing their economy and watch Pakistan destroy itself from an unwinnable arms race and eventual Jihad takeover.Recommend

What did India do in 1971? You must be speaking of Bangladesh. India didn’t do anything. It was all done by your West Pakistan. How could they allow Bengali’s run the country even though they won majority in the general elections.

I don’t know what they taught you in schools you should venture out and read a little. Start with Wikipedia, nothing complicated, easy to read then you can move on to more reading. Recommend

India did not get a Nuke just because China had it. There were more reasons to it. India was looking at the Big Picture. India recognizes that its size, population and resources makes it a potential Super Power. In about 20 to 30 years we are going to become exactly that. Nukes are just for showcasing and the World recognized it with the Nuclear deal it signed with India.

Pakistan, owing to many, many factors does not have a chance in hell to match India on any account, so Nukes have become a liability for it.

Pakistan’s only adversary is India, right? Pakistan, as well as India, don’t need more than a few dozens nuclear weapon each to wipe out each other. India’s case is a little different cause of China but here too it does’t need to get into an arms race with China. A few weapons should be enough to maintain minimum deterrence. Also, a deterrence may have worked for Pakistan when it comes to misadventures of 1999, 2001, 2008 but can any one guarantee against Indians not retaliating? A Pakistani nuclear deterrence may not work cause should Pakistan step over the nuclear threshold in face of an Indian retaliation to another Pakistani misadventure, Indians could very well strike back in kind.

Frankly, India, China and pakistan have huge populations that are still struggling for mere survival. There is more to be gained by working together. I wonder though what would happen to the world’s arms industry in such a scenario.Recommend

@Dalit Hindu:
“India loves to attack its smaller neighbours, Pakistan, Goa, Sikkim, Sri Lanka by supporting terrorist groups such as the Tamil Tigers, Mukthi Bahini and through miltiary intervention, Indeed India even attempted to attack China in 1962 and lost Aksai Chin.”

-> A dalit hindu will not have such a bad general knowledge. Besides, there is only one country in the world where Mukthi Bahini is considered terrorist group. So Mr. Dalit Hindu, you cannot even fake your identity properly.Recommend

As regard the internal and external apprehensions are concerned as singled out in the article, these are socio-enconomic oriented, which are stands pole aparts with the Nuclear Assests. If we have robust enconomy, definitely, our nuclear assests will settle the Kashmir issue as well as all internal and external issues.Recommend

Possessing nuclear weapons is one thing but can any nation afford to use one ? Can there be a nuclear war ? Even if one flattens out the opponent can any nation afford the millions of deaths on its side ? India held back its reaction to serious provocation because Indian leaders are concerned about deaths that can possible happen (on both sides !) if Pakistan’s trigger happy army escalates the conflict into a nuclear war ! 20 ,30 ,100 or 200 – who cares ! Ask the Generals to carry them into their graves !Recommend

india is the most dangerous country on earth especialy for its nabouring countries.from all neabouring countries india doesnt hove understanding even with his one neabour.india got troubling relations with china banglades pakistan srilanka nepal and burma as well.so all neabouring countries are wrong or only india?Recommend

We should not be satisfied with a mere 100 bombs surely, let us have a thousand more. Who cares if it means that the poorest people in Pakistan (only about 50-70 million) starve to their deaths, at least their graves will be firmly protected from those Indian wretches.Recommend

Indian defense apparatus is not directed against any country it is only for protecting our borders.Though most of time it has been used against Pakistan but then India was forced to use it to protect its borders.For us Pakistan is a small fry and India is least bothered about.Recommend

tareeq Saeed:
Pl read the newspapers. India has troubling relationship with only Pakistan. All other countries neighbouring India coexist with us peacefully. None of the neighbours accuse us of terrorism, our state policies etc., India has been assisting Afganistan, Bangladesh and Srilanka economically.
The reason why we have troubles with Pakistan is because Pakistan has troubles with all its neighbours Afganistan, India , Iran and Kashmir as well. With China, Pakistan doesnt have any trouble because, it has surrendered to China fully, donated its land and takes its orders from China.Recommend

@Ashrafuddin Chitrali:
” If we have robust enconomy, definitely, our nuclear assests will settle the Kashmir issue as well as all internal and external issues..”
And how would your nuclear assets settle the issue? If you have any doubts how it will all pan out, watch the movie “The day after”. Just do not underestimate our resolve.Recommend

Pakistanis are fool and they need to get life.. India always shown decisiveness in prior wars. in 1999 Kargil war (most recent) Pakistan has Nukes and Mr Mush calculated that since Paki has nukes, India will not retaliate and come to negotiating table giving pakistan a chance to alter the boundries.. but they were wrong.. India resisted well not budge because of Paki nukes and ready to escalate the war if situation demanded.. with this pakistan was pressured by world powers and has to back off.. result 700 pakistani soldiers died with not an inch of LOC is altered..paki loss the facce.. mind you kargil war was an event after which world started looking india different. Nukes are for deterrance ..but if someone blackmails Indians showing nukes then they are day-dreaming.
Bill Clinton visited pakistan and India after kargil has really impressive speech . he said on PTV ” This century does not belong to the states who attempts to alter the boundries with violence and war. this century is of people who expand their influence through trade and overall growth”.. It was a tight slap on Paki army and people ..
Read books on pakistan for more details .. Recommend

I hate nuclear weapons as these are not deterrent but for bullying others? I love nuclear science, as so much we can discover to cure through nuclear medicine. If pakistan exports nuclear weapons it will be proliferation. If Pakistan exports nuclear medicine it will be royalty and acknowledgement of its expertise. RegardsRecommend

If a terrorist shoots himself with a pistol, no one would bother, in fact it would be a good riddance for the society. The problem arises when he wants to kill himself with a Nuke, in the heart of Lahore.

A very honest article. There are sane Pakistani voices in the comments section as well as rotten eggs. Haris Chaudhry’s rebuttal of Uzair Javed comments is heartening. What is of concern is the existence of Uzair Javeds in societies. This kind of people extends the present conflicts in the Pakistani society by another 25 years.

As an Indian, my opinion is that, it is Pakistan’s prerogative to develop, deploy and use whatever weapon it deems necessary to safeguard or destroy itself. As an Indian, I am more concerned that such actions should not drag us into a conflict, that we do not want and ill afford. A poor country with limited resources without even a nuclear begging bowl, we can ill afford to divert any of our resources to unnecessary conflicts instead of development.

By the way, Pakistan does not need Nuclear Weapons to deter India. The kind of society that has evolved in Pakistan is deterrence enough for India, to even, think of touching Pakistan even with a barge pole. In fact Pakistan has finally been able to create the most effective deterrence against the world – It lawless chaotic society. Recommend