A targeted Strategic calling environment poll of 2,230 Canadians across 10 provinces between May 28-June 5, 2009. Research primarily obtained from Sce Research America--and specifically New York City, U.S.A. This poll includes analysis from pollster Glen P. Robbins and features a margin of error of 1%-2% the range based on high Undecided in question #2.

Additional research provided by Jim Van Rassel (604) 328-5398.

Question #1

For which federal leader and party would you caste your ballot if an election was held tomorrow? (Responses rotated)

Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party of Canada

33 %

Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada

33 %

Jack Layton and New Democratic Party of Canada

16 %

Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada

08 %

Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois Party

9.5 %

Other

1.5 %

Undecided/Can’t Answer

09 %

Question #2

The California state court has upheld a proposition vote to ban same sex marriages.
In your opinion should Canada reverse its current position to allow same sex marriages-- and ban them as well?

Yes

32 %

No

48 %

Question #3

In your opinion, should issues such as same sex lifestyles be subject matter in the education of young people in public schools?

Yes

27 %

No

61 %

Question #4

In your opinion, should gay couples with the same qualifications as straight couples be permitted to apply to adopt children in Canada?

Yes

33 %

No

56 %

Question #5

Do you agree with U.S. President Barack Obama who believes--- it is important to reduce abortion numbers-by reducing teenage pregnancy—and using other strategies—without making abortions illegal?

Yes

64 %

No

30 %

Commentary

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives and Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals are tied at (33%) in public support in this cross-Canada Glen P. Robbins poll—with data collected by Sce Research America.

Liberals are most popular in Newfoundland and Labrador (44%), lowest in Alberta (23%). Conservatives score highest in Alberta (53%) and lowest in Quebec (17%). No news there.

Conservative are (3.5%) behind the Liberals in Canada’s most populous province Ontario—where one third of all seats in Canada’s parliament can be found.

Conservatives are also (11%) behind Liberals in Quebec. No news here. The news may be that Conservatives remain in the mid-low (30%) in British Columbia—(10%) off last elections totals-representing one per cent nationally.

(40%) of Decided respondents want to reverse Canada’s current position on same sex marriage—and ban it. Stephen Harper’s Conservative supporters were most inclined toward reversing current Canadian law---and-- ‘banning’ same sex marriage (60% Decided). Massive peaceful pro-same sex marriage rallies are going to be held all through North America, South America, and Australia/New Zealand.

(56%) of Americans want same sex marriage banned (see other U.S. polling data)—while (60% Decided) Canadians in this Sce Research America poll--- want to leave the current laws—allowing same sex marriage. Support for retaining same sex marriage was bolstered to some extent by supporters—clearly not promoters of same sex marriages-- who say:

“If I don’t see it – why should it bother me?”

Canadians don’t like rehashing old fights—once they are settled-- even if not all are necessarily happy with the outcome. Pollster Glen P. Robbins produced many high quality polls on this subject while doing work for Reform in BC (circa 2002-2003), and believes that “social change does not take hold in Canada quite as liberally as many might expect”. “But once something becomes law—it’s hard not to turn the page.” “This is because at the root of it, the heart of it, Canadians mostly know there isn’t much they can do about anything after the fact and decide to look the other way in some cases.” “With gay rights there is still a pool of resentment—many of these reflected in responses in our same sex marriage question and our Barack Obama-abortion question, however for the greater part Canadians believe in an individual’s right to live free and unafraid no matter their sexual orientation or view on abortion.” “The same rights to disagree with same sex marriage and abortion laws should be respected as well.”

Political consumers will need to know the facts—all of the facts—the hard facts-about the implications of all new change---the evidence in this poll is the continued conspicuous resistance to same sex lifestyles being taught in school--

A majority of Canadians (69% Decided) are of the opinion that same sex lifestyles should not be subject matter in the “education of young people in public schools”. A majority of respondents (62% Decided) also reject same sex couples adopting children. These are significant numbers given the new legislation in Alberta—where support (Decided) was in the mid (70%). Even in Quebec where they are very liberal on social matters the (Decided) is in the low (60%)--.

Nearly (70%) of Canadians agree with U.S. President Barack Obama’s position that abortions ought to be reduced—but abortion should not be illegal. I’ve written in previous polls that Canadians are certainly not for abortion-although some who are pro-choice do not necessarily spend a lot of time thinking about the issue-often taking it for granted-- while those against abortion—are flat out against it and becoming more vocal.