Little Gold Men

Little Gold Men: The Only Oscar Front-Runner Is the One Nobody Thought Would Make It

Katey Rich: Wednesday night I rode the subway with our mutual friend Chris Rosen of the Huffington Post, and he pointed out what I guess I've known but not noticed: the supporting-actress field this year is beyond weak. That happens often in this category, admittedly, but after last year's Lupita/J. Law fireworks and Anne Hathaway’s coronation the year before that, I had gotten used to having a rooting interest here. This year, it seems we've got Patricia Arquette for Boyhood (a terrific and very deserving performance), and a whole lot of questions. Is Jessica Chastain a contender for her mysterious role in Interstellar? Is Meryl Streep just an automatic bet for Into the Woods, thanks to her very Streep-ness? Can Vanessa Redgrave (Foxcatcher), Laura Dern (Wild), and Emma Stone (Birdman) edge their way in even with relatively small roles to represent them?

Having seen The Imitation Game (at last!), I might have finally found a favorite in Keira Knightley. Not because she’s so stellar in this fairly by-the-book biopic (the fact that she’s a willing beard to gay mathematician Alan Turing makes her no less of the "supportive wife" stock character), but because she’s had quite a year, and her comic lead performance in Laggies won’t get her the nomination she actually deserves. I love the supporting-actress category because it so often gives our most idiosyncratic and under-appreciated actresses a moment to shine (miss you, “Amy Ryan vs. Tilda Swinton vs. Ruby Dee” year), but this edition seems to be coming up short. Do you guys have any suggestions to fill the void? Or any favorites, a la Keira, who you want to see get an overall “body of work” nomination regardless of the actual performance?

Richard Lawson: Yes, Katey, right now all signs seem to be pointing to Patricia Arquette. Which is pretty strange! Not because she isn’t great in Boyhood. She is. But because who would have ever guessed that Patricia Arquette would one day be an Oscar front-runner? Once in a while these old awards surprise you, and this is one of those times.

It certainly doesn’t hurt her chances that, as you pointed out, Katey, the rest of the field is pretty weak. I think Dern will get in there, because everyone loves Laura Dern. Emma Stone has a good shot, if only for that one devastating monologue. And yes, I think Streep is a good bet, because when the Academy doesn’t know what else to do, they just throw her in there. Remember when she was nominated for Music of the Heart? (Also, a fun thing I just learned: Meryl Streep has a whole separate Wikipedia page just to list the awards and nominations she’s received.) To get that list up to five, I think you have to do some much deeper digging.

Which is where your second question comes in, Katey. She’s a small part and doesn’t have that much to do, but Viola Davis is such a warm, welcome presence in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Her, that it would be nice to see her get some notice. Especially given the good work she’s been doing on TV lately in How to Get Away with Murder. Basically the opposite of when Melissa McCarthy won an Emmy for Mike & Molly, but was really getting the prize for Bridesmaids. I’d also love to see the great Marisa Tomei in the mix for her understated work in Love Is Strange, but dismayingly that movie seems destined to be shut out of the Oscars entirely. Though, a recent Gotham Award nomination might be a small glimmer of hope?

But yeah, Patricia Arquette could very well win this thing. How about that!

Mike Hogan: Way back in March, I left the SXSW screening of Boyhood feeling as if I had just experienced some kind of major life transition—one part dazzled by the mundane beauty of life, one part traumatized by the heartless march of time. And, of course, being the hack Oscar prognosticator that I’ve somehow become, there was another not-so-small part of me that just wanted to know what it all meant for the Oscars. I know it has no chance at best picture, I told myself, thinking of director Richard Linklater’s career-long negligence in the Hollywood schmoozing department, but Lord, what I would give for supporting nominations for Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette.

Turns out I was a shade more cynical than I needed to be. No, I don’t agree with my optimistic compatriots in the Gold Derby sewing circle that Boyhood is likely to win best picture (I have no idea what could win this year, to be honest), but I’m thrilled at the near unanimity in support of Patricia Arquette to not just be nominated but actually take home the statue for best-supporting actress. I hesitate to call her performance “brave,” but it sure is honest and real and moving and everything a person like me could ask for from a cinematic actor. No false notes, no pyrotechnics, and certainly no prosthetics—just a sustained commitment to embodying a character credited, perhaps inevitably, only as Mom.

So yeah, I’m way in the can for Arquette here. Beyond that, sure, I’d support an Emma Stone nod for Birdman. And Keira Knightley may be as appealing in The Imitation Game as she’s been in anything since Bend It Like Beckham, so that’s good. For a minute, people were saying Vanessa Redgrave might get a nomination for Foxcatcher, but she’s only in it for a few minutes, so that fad seems to be passing. From what I hear, Jessica Chastain may have the same problem in Interstellar.

But reassure me, guys: Is this Arquette thing real? Or are the Oscar bloggers just indulging their preference for weird art movies at a time when a bunch of key films still haven’t even screened? Do I need to fear the words of an Oscar pro who told me today, in reference to another contender, “Well, it’s not gonna be Debbie Reynolds’s favorite movie”?

Katey: If I were Debbie Reynolds, or any Hollywood mother, I would be all about Patricia Arquette—a performance that actually shows how heartbreaking and terrible it can be to raise children who then go on to live without you. I realize the Academy still skews male, but it's hard to imagine any mother—or parent, really—not turning Arquette's final scene over and over in their minds.

The fact that this intended broad supporting-actress conversation has turned into a Patricia Arquette love letter says a lot about this empty category, and suggests that the next few months have a lot of catching up to do. Or, maybe even more excitingly, it stays empty, and thrilling outsiders like Tomei or Gone Girl’s Carrie Coon can make their way in. Sure, this is just another example of how few good roles there are for women. But it’s also one more bit of uncertainty in what’s shaping up as a delightfully foggy Oscar season.