Bill James says Morrow has Cy Young potential

When Bill James speaks, baseball people listen. So it’s interesting to hear what the long-time author and sabermatician has to say about Mariners pitcher Brandon Morrow.

In his newest book, The Bill James Gold Mine 2009, James goes to bat for the Mariners’ decision to draft Morrow two years ago, even though they passed on Husky star — and last year’s NL Cy Young winner — Tim Lincecum in the process.

“This is something that people talk about, but — just my opinion — in the long run, I don’t think anybody is going to regret drafting Brandon Morrow,” writes James, now working as senior baseball operations advisor for the Boston Red Sox. “I think he’s tremendous.”

Coincidentally, the Mariners faced Lincecum — and a familiar fellow named Randy Johnson — in Monday’s spring training game against the San Francisco Giants at Scottsdale Stadium. The Mariners got a pair of runs in three innings off the Unit, then touched Lincecum for three runs over the final six frames in a 5-1 victory.

As for James’ rationale on Morrow’s potential, this was his explanation:

“Morrow had a 3.34 ERA last year, but there are several signals that he may be a better pitcher even than that. Batters hit .174 against him, which is Randy Johnson territory. He made a mid-season conversion from relief to starting, which probably didn’t help his numbers any, and he gave up 10 home runs with just 47 fly outs.

“A ratio like that is probably a fluke, since the pitcher doesn’t really control the percentage of flyballs against him that become home runs. He may not be a starting pitcher. In five starts in September he walked 19 men, which is too many; even Randy couldn’t succeed as a starter issuing that many free passes. He may have to go back to the bullpen. And I’m not saying he is Tim Lincecum, but … I think he’s a guy who has Cy Young ability.”

Among other Mariners topics touched on by James:

“Although he’s often overlooked, Adrian Beltre is one of the best third basemen in baseball. He is at the top of the list in fielding and below average in only one category, plate discipline. He has also been very durable, and his skill set is actually very similar to one of baseball’s saints: Brooks Robinson.”

“”What happened to Yuniesky Betancourt’s glove? His fielding plus/minus figures (the number of plays he makes above or below what an average defender at his position would have made) have dropped each of the past two years, and he was last among all major league shortstops in 2008. He has particularly lost range on groundballs up the middle.”

“Last year, we mentioned that Felix Hernandez threw his slider more often in 2007. In 2008, he changed his pattern again, throwing fastballs more often than anytime in his major league career, and de-emphasizing the slider and curveball.”

“The Seattle Mariners last year had a man on second base, no one out 116 times, and scored only 111 runs in those innings. They were the only major league team to score less than one run an inning when they had a leadoff hitter at second base. ”