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Election’s Over, So What’s Next for the Cable News Channels?

Over the last three months of the 2008 presidential campaign, ratings for the cable news channel MSNBC were up 158 percent over the same period a year earlier. They were up 101 percent for the Fox News Channel. On Comedy Central, “The Daily Show With Jon Stewart” hit a record high of 3.6 million viewers for a guest appearance by Senator Barack Obama on Oct. 29.

For cable channels with strong points of view, it was a very good election.

But for all the news media outlets that set viewership records in recent months, the looming question after Senator Obama’s election is: what happens now?

In some instances — especially for the most partisan of outlets, like Fox News and MSNBC — the change may entail a role reversal like something out of a Shakespearean comedy, with characters changing costumes to be the opposite of what they were during the last act.

MSNBC, by taking on the voice of the hostile opposition, finally gained traction during the 2008 campaign after being, in the words of its president, Phil Griffin, “out of the discussion” for its entire previous history. But it now faces the prospect of changing into the clothes of the administration’s ardent defender.

At the same time Fox News, which had been the most significant media supporter of the Bush administration, is now expected to revert to the position it held when it first broke through during the Clinton years: the aggressive voice of the opposition.

“The administration has changed, but the politics haven’t,” said John Rash, an advertising executive who teaches a course in media and politics at the University of Minnesota. “The liberal and conservative commentators who dominate each news network will have to invert their roles.”

Keith Olbermann, the host of “Countdown” on MSNBC, said: “There’s no question that it’s going to change. Of course we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen. I think you could say I’m going to take a different position on the diamond, but it’s the same approach. It’s an interesting switch of poles but by no means a switch of roles.”

Mr. Olbermann noted that “Fox News and Rush Limbaugh rose during the Clinton years,” whereas he and his fellow MSNBC host Rachel Maddow “rose during the Bush Administration.”

“But after the Bush inauguration,” he added, “Fox and Limbaugh didn’t go off the air. If you’re any good at all, you should be able to react to a changed landscape.”

MSNBC and Fox News, along with their chief competitor, CNN, and every comedy show and Web site specializing in political satire, thrived during an election year that captured the attention of viewers across the spectrum of television and the Internet.

All the news networks showed significant ratings gains, especially for the high moments of the race. CNN, whose ratings grew by 124 percent in the final three months of the campaign, soared every time there was a campaign event — especially election night, when it had 13 million viewers, more than any other news organization.

On Fox, Bill O’Reilly drew a record number of viewers when he had Mr. Obama as a guest.

MSNBC grabbed special attention by topping CNN in prime time for the last month of the race, something it had never done before, and by occasionally topping Fox, the perennial leader, in the audience category to which news advertisers pay most attention: viewers between the ages of 25 and 54.

“We know we’re not going to be able to maintain this level,” Mr. Griffin of MSNBC acknowledged when discussing the channel’s ratings performance. “But nobody is.”

That could also include entertainment shows like Comedy Central’s twin topical satire series, “The Daily Show” and “The Colbert Report.” So far the ratings for Comedy Central remain strong, and the numbers for the cable news networks have not shown precipitous declines. But the news is still mainly about the election and the transition.

Roger Ailes, the chief executive at Fox News, said in an interview this week in the trade publication Broadcasting and Cable: “There may be certain elements of our audience that turn away between now and the inauguration. I think cable numbers over all will drop, although there is a fascination with Obama.” (Through a spokeswoman, Fox News declined to comment for this article.)

But Jonathan Klein, the president of CNN/U.S., predicted that his channel’s approach — news without an overt ideological spin — would prevail in the long term. He said CNN had made its biggest statement on election night, when it dominated the cable competition, doubling its overall audience from 2004. CNN beat every other network from 8 p.m. to 12:30 a.m. during that coverage.

Mr. Klein also said that going forward, especially as troubling economic news grabs headlines, CNN would find an advantage. “This is a serious time,” he said. “People are looking for sobriety.”

Some neutral observers said CNN’s argument had some validity, especially if Mr. Obama succeeds in his stated goal of tempering the partisan heat that has characterized political discourse in recent years.

“To the degree that a President Obama is able to keep his cool — and that was one of his chief advantages in the campaign — it may impact the news channels,” Mr. Rash of the University of Minnesota said. “Many Americans may be looking for a conflict-diminished — I don’t think you’ll see conflict-free — government.”

Andrew Tyndall, who analyzes television for his Web site The Tyndall Report (tyndallreport.com), said: “I think CNN is less vulnerable. It wasn’t running around chasing viewers; it was chasing news. The political season is over. That makes the ideological sources, like the blogs, more vulnerable.” But those sources are not likely to include Fox News, he said, because of its coming shift to the opposition voice.

“Fox News may be affected short term,” Mr. Tyndall said. “But they can hunker down during the Obama honeymoon and have their talking points ready.”

He added that MSNBC could be more vulnerable as it switches roles with Fox: “Fox is the leading conservative voice in the media, and the conservative audience is loyal. The liberal people have more options.” Mr. Olbermann and Ms. Maddow, he added, “thrived by presenting themselves as smarter than the people in the administration.”

“They won’t be able to do that anymore,” Mr. Tyndall continued.

Mr. Griffin made the case for MSNBC’s continued popularity, even as it loses the mantle of the righteous rebels seeking overthrow of a corrupt leadership. “Our personalities built followings during this campaign,” he said. “We’ve arrived.”

Ms. Maddow said she did not expect her show to change significantly. “There are always stories to be covered, and I’ve got an opinion about everything,” she said. “I feel like it is my job to explain what’s going on, and make fun of and take on people who are being dumb.”

She noted that her talk show on Air America Radio did not change much after the elections of 2004 and 2006 “even though the outcomes were vastly different.”

Comedy Central executives are not worried about the future, said Michele Ganeless, the president of the channel. Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, she said, can make fun of whatever happens to be in the news.

And indeed, this week “The Daily Show” appeared to slide Mr. Obama seamlessly into the bull’s-eye. On Tuesday night, after showing the phalanx of advisers Mr. Obama has enlisted, Mr. Stewart noted that “white presidents travel with a wing man, but an African-American president? Oh, he travels with a posse.”

Later the show inaugurated a segment, “Greatness Watch: The Road to Rushmore,” with a graphic of Mr. Obama’s face inserted to the right of Lincoln’s.

A version of this article appears in print on , on page C1 of the New York edition with the headline: Election’s Over, So What’s Next for the Cable News Channels?. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe