'O.C. has hit middle age': Orange County's growth has slowed down, but not in Irvine

May 19, 2016

Updated 7:38 a.m.

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New-home construction is going on in the Orchard Hills area of Irvine, which grew by 45,021 people between 2010 and 2015. The city had by far the biggest growth rate in Orange County. MARK RIGHTMIRE, STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER

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Downtown goers walk down Birch Street in Brea last year. Brea's job growth grew by 7 percent and is likely the work of fill-in development, redevelopment projects, more inter-generational households or some combination of those forces. NICK AGRO, REGISTER FILE PHOTO

New-home construction is going on in the Orchard Hills area of Irvine, which grew by 45,021 people between 2010 and 2015. The city had by far the biggest growth rate in Orange County. MARK RIGHTMIRE, STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER

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Congratulations, or condolences, Orange County: You’re all grown up.

Gone is the breakneck surge of your lanky and perhaps awkward adolescence, when population doubled and doubled again. New city-level data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau show that O.C.’s population grew 5.3 percent between 2010 and 2015. That’s down sharply from a galloping 100 percent through the 1960s and close to a 20 percent increase as recently as the 2000 decennial census.

The recent five-year growth rate was slower than in Riverside (7.8 percent) and San Diego (6.6 percent) counties; about on par with the state (5.1 percent); and faster than San Bernardino (4.6 percent) and Los Angeles (3.6 percent) counties.

“I was surprised to see how little O.C. has grown,” said Fred Smoller, associate professor of political science at Chapman University. “The boom years – 1970s and 1980s – are over. O.C. has hit middle age and is starting to slow down.”

If that hurts a bit, at least California hasthis: Some other big states are geriatric. Growth in New York was just 2.2 percent over those five years. In Pennsylvania, it was 0.8 percent; and in Illinois, a measly 0.2 percent.

On the other hand, Texas – which recently lured Apple and Toyota operations from California, among others – saw population grow 9.2 percent. Utah, which has also attracted California businesses, saw population rise 8.4 percent. Sunny Florida was up 7.8 percent.

In the U.S. overall, population increased 4.1 percent.

GOING UP

Orange County added 159,510 people over the five-year period covered by the new data– the equivalent of an entire new city the size of Fullerton or Orange.

The biggest gain, by far, was in Irvine.

Once painted as beige and boring, Irvine is morphing into one of the county’s most diverse economic engines. Its population grew by 21.2 percent, according to the census figures – or by 45,021 people. That’s like sprouting a new Brea in just a few years.

People are flocking to new single-family neighborhoods around the Great Park and into new apartment and condo blocks throughout the city.

“Irvine’s population is growing because it’s physically growing into new areas which are part of its master plan,” said Mark Petracca, political science professor at UC Irvine who has served on the city’s planning commission. “And there’s probably more growth to come in the further areas of what used to be called the ‘northern sphere.’ Irvine’s motto could easily be, ‘If you build them, they will come.’”

More four-story condo buildings are going up in various locations across Irvine, notably along Jamboree Road and near the Spectrum, noted Raymond Sfeir, associate dean at Chapman’s Argyros School of Business and Economics.

“I am sure that the occupants of these complexes account for a large percent of the population growth in Irvine. But I should admit the percentage increase for Irvine is a surprise to me,” Sfeir said. “Similarly, other O.C. cities are now allowing building up, as less and less vacant land is available. The lack of available land and the high cost of housing have made large development of condo complexes more prevalent.”

Of the 21,197 building permits issued by Irvine from 2010 through 2015 – nearly half of the county’s total – 8,118 were for single-family houses. The remaining 13,079 were for apartments or condos, according to the California Homebuilding Foundation.

The shift from single-family houses to condos and apartments in Irvine unnerves some.

Mayor Steven Choi has worried that the new one- and two-bedroom apartments don’t lend themselves to the stable family vibe Irvine has long nurtured in its single-family neighborhoods. But he’s adjusting.

“I’ve complained and they say, ‘Mayor, the millennials, they prefer not to own a property. They prefer to live a simple life. The home prices are too expensive. Our young people cannot even afford to buy. We need to provide the housing for young people,’” Choi said.

The city’s great schools, low crime rate, open space and established Asian community make it especially attractive, said Chapman’s Smoller.

“Initial waves of Vietnamese settled in Garden Grove and Huntington Beach,” Smoller said. “They worked hard, pinched pennies by living multigenerational, and saved their money. Success meant going south on the 405 and buying a home, often with cash,in Irvine, where their kids, or grandkids, could go to the finest K-12 schools in California, possibly the nation.”

“If you were to stand somewhere in Anaheim Hills and look north towards Brea and Yorba Linda, you would see how construction of homes is creeping up the hills above these cities,” said Chapman’s Sfeir. “The availability of land in those cities has allowed the growth in the population there.”

Wallace Walrod, chief economic adviser for the Orange County Business Council, agrees that the biggest driver in O.C.’s growth is the amount of new housing built as the economy has gradually recovered in recent years. But he said that the cities with above-average population growth have also added jobs at an above-average rate and are employment centers.

“Cities that did a good job of welcoming/encouraging both during this time period saw population grow at above-average rates,” Walrod said. “Those cities that didn’t do one or the other – or both – saw lower population growth rates. What drives population growth is pretty simple – people vote with their feet.”

Tustin’s growth is attributable to buildout of new housing units, UCI’s Petracca said, and the growth in Brea, Huntington Beach and Yorba Linda is likely the work of fill-in development, redevelopment projects, more intergenerational households or some combination of those.

“Most other cities like Orange and Newport Beach are built out, but also priced-out for newcomers and college grads with huge loans to pay off who can’t even afford a condo, much less a house,” said Chapman’s Smoller.

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