The Original BJ wrote:SAG voters have no choice regarding category placement. Viola Davis was submitted as supporting actress, and that's the only place she can be nominated. (Del Toro, as well as Connelly/A Beautiful Mind were actually submitted as leads at SAG.)

good to know. I'll adjust.

"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."- Minor Myers, Jr.

It seems to me that with the proliferation of all these precursors that many people in the film/TV profession attend in addition to the Oscars and Emmys, that attending/campaigning would take away a lot of time from filming. So, I'm curious, if anyone here who works in the film/TV industry sees a production-rate decline this time of the year.

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SAG voters have no choice regarding category placement. Viola Davis was submitted as supporting actress, and that's the only place she can be nominated. (Del Toro, as well as Connelly/A Beautiful Mind were actually submitted as leads at SAG.)

Sabin wrote: I think SAG voters have to vote for performers in the correct categories

Benicio won the Best Actor SAG didn't he?...pretty much slamming any potential open door in the Supporting Oscar race? Winslet as well I believe? I wouldn't put FilmFan's prediction out of the realm of possibility and if SAG history continues I would bet Davis to win the category and close any question about the Supporting Oscar yet again. Maybe I'm wrong and misremembering but the "correct" category seems to be confusing with SAG

It's interesting you bring this up. I think SAG voters have to vote for performers in the correct categories, but I was thinking the other day that were Viola Davis to make it into the Best Actress lineup, we'd probably be talking about the single most competitive Best Actress category in ages.

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLEMahershala Ali as Juan, MoonlightJeff Bridges as Marcus Hamilton, Hell or High WaterAaron Eckhart as Jeff Skiles, SullyLucas Hedges as Patrick Chandler, Manchester by the SeaSunny Pawar as Young Saroo, Lion

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLEViola Davis as Rose, FencesNaomie Harris as Theresa, MoonlightNicole Kidman as Sue Brierly, LionHelen Mirren as Col. Katherine Powell, Eye in the SkyMichelle Williams as Randi, Manchester by the Sea

Just got back from La La Land. I'll write up some thoughts on it in a bit. But I think you guys have a point and I'm going to change my prediction...to include it for Stunt Ensemble as well.

I honestly just don't see a reason to take the film off the ensemble list. No, it shouldn't get anywhere near a nomination for Ensemble. The Revenant didn't. Gravity didn't. Lots of eventual Best Picture nominees didn't. But La La Land isn't going to be a Best Picture nominee. It's going to win. And the last Best Picture winner to miss out on a nomination was...Braveheart. First ceremony.

Right now I'm predicting Fences, Hell or High Water, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight as nominees. If La La Land were to miss out, what else is in the race that could replace it? The biggest contenders for Best Picture don't seem like good fits. By that I mean, Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Sully, Silence, Arrival, Jackie, and Loving. So what's left? Hidden Figures? Florence Foster Jenkins? 20th Century Women? It just doesn't seem smart to bet on those movies when I know that the SAG voting bloc maybe hasn't loved a movie like La La Land in years. Then again, what do I know? Show of hands: who predicted Beasts of No Nation, Straight Outta Compton, and Trumbo last year?

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

And, to tack onto Anonymou's comment, there were only two people cited for the ensemble in that nomination, Key and Peele.

As to La La Land, according to the Lionsgate awards website, they list Gosling, Stone, Simmons, Legend, and DeWitt for nomination consideration, so I'm guessing that list will be the ensemble set, which will be more than enough for SAG (and they did hold SAG screenings, so I'm pretty sure it's going to get nominated). That said, it all depends on the opening credits. Any name that appears alone and not paired or listed with others can typically be considered part of the eligible ensemble.

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"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

Mister Tee wrote:I'm just back from La La Land -- will try to write about it later today -- but I'd say it really tests the premise that the best picture favorite has to get a SAG Ensemble nomination. Yeah, Rosemarie deWitt has a scene, and John Legend has a sort of part...but this movie is 90% just Emma & Ryan, and such films have never been cited here before (usually it's The More the Merrier). If George Clooney had hung around for all of Gravity, would that have constituted an ensemble?

This wasn't in the film but in the TV category: Last year, the sketch show Key & Peele got a Comedy Series Ensemble nomination but there are only two principal actors on that show, the aforementioned Key and Peele...and that's it. Yes, other actors do show up and participate in sketches but the main primary performers are just those two.

The Original BJ wrote:I agree that an Ensemble nomination for La La Land would REALLY be pushing the definition of the category. But...can't you still imagine it placing? All my actor friends who finally saw the movie this weekend flat adored it, and I can imagine that general enthusiasm for the movie pushing it into contention here. I'd also point out that, unlike Gravity, it doesn't FEEL underpopulated -- recognizable faces keep popping up (J.K. Simmons, Finn Wittrock), and there are numerous dance numbers with lots of featured extras. (I know, those people won't actually get the nomination, but I don't think voters are thinking much about that.) And not that the movie needs to keep being compared to The Artist, but that was also pretty much a two-hander, and it still scored in this category. But...obviously we'll see what happens on Wednesday.

I'm not even faintly arguing it won't happen, merely that it shouldn't.

I think SAG members -- especially the hangers-on who work irregularly -- will hear Emma's 11 o'clock number as their manifesto...they'll want to shout out, yes, Mom and Dad, that's why I do what I do! It's an enormous wet kiss to all artists, would-be or otherwise, and they're going to gobble it up.

I also agree with you precisely on Huppert: there's a possibility of her missing at SAG -- but that would have little effect on her Oscar nomination likelihood.

I agree that an Ensemble nomination for La La Land would REALLY be pushing the definition of the category. But...can't you still imagine it placing? All my actor friends who finally saw the movie this weekend flat adored it, and I can imagine that general enthusiasm for the movie pushing it into contention here. I'd also point out that, unlike Gravity, it doesn't FEEL underpopulated -- recognizable faces keep popping up (J.K. Simmons, Finn Wittrock), and there are numerous dance numbers with lots of featured extras. (I know, those people won't actually get the nomination, but I don't think voters are thinking much about that.) And not that the movie needs to keep being compared to The Artist, but that was also pretty much a two-hander, and it still scored in this category. But...obviously we'll see what happens on Wednesday.

If Huppert got a nomination here, she'd be in Cruz/Volver and Cotillard/La Vie en Rose territory, among the few foreign language performances to hit all the major precursors before the Oscar nominations. I guess my feeling at the moment is that a movie as prickly as Elle is more likely than not going to have a bump somewhere along the way, and SAG has always seemed the trickiest get. (And not just on subject matter -- I think the movie will have a disadvantage at not being as widely seen with this group as some other options). Given the overall competitive field, I wouldn't be surprised to see her left off. But if she DOES get this nomination, it's hard to see her being excluded come Oscar time, given the overall friendlier environment for a Huppert-type nominee.

Last edited by The Original BJ on Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.