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The business cycle dating committee defines a recession as

The committee also looks at monthly estimates of real GDP such as those prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers (see

Although these indicators are the most important measures considered by the NBER in developing its business cycle chronology, there is no fixed rule about which other measures contribute information to the process.” [emphasis added] Figure 1 presents real GDP on a quarterly basis (I don’t have access to the Macroeconomic Advisers series).

In addition, it describes current production levels and usage of these synthesis tools in South Africa, and concludes with a call for greater attention and use of these tools to improve research evidence availability in the policy-making processes.

The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment.

In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes.

The Council meets when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession.

Howe Institute Business Cycle Council is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada.

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