I think the six nominees from last year all get a nomination this year. There are only two new comedies in this Emmy period that didn't exist in last Emmy period that I think are "good enough" to make a run at someone else's spot: Arrested Development and The Mindy Project. A.D. doesn't have a true female lead, and Mindy Kaling doesn't seem to be there yet, or at least she's not getting the buzz that chicks like Lena Dunham and Zooey Deschanel were getting around this time last year.

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT:Melissa McCarthy (Mike and Molly)

Last year, there were actually seven nominees, the six ladies from above + McCarthy. McCarthy won this award two years ago, but that felt more like a win for her work in Bridesmaids versus a win for her work in the CBS show. While it was extremely odd that there were seven nominees in any category, nevertheless in a category dedicated to all females (I really don't mean to be sexist, but great roles for females in both movies and TV tend to be few and far between), I think there's only six nominees this year.

The Emmys HAD TO nominate McCarthy last year, but it seemed like they only did it because she was the reigning champ, versus actually deserving it again. With Julia Louis-Dreyfus now being the reigning champ, and nobody talking about Mike and Molly anymore, I think McCarthy drops out. That being said, it's never a good idea to vote against a previous winner.