Daily News: trade wars are weighing again

09:10 11.07.2018

I think all of us are already tired of trade wars news but there is nothing we can do with that. The US is said to impose new $200 billion tariffs on Chinese goods. New tariffs will support the Japanese yen and will pull down the AUD.

In the early Asian session, the USD/JPY pair reacted to the negative news and tested the support at 110.90. However, it managed to recover a little bit. Up to now, the trading isn’t extensive. More trade wars news will pull the pair below the support. Until then USD/JPY has chances to trade within 110.90-111.40.

As we said above, the AUD is a victim of the trade wars. The AUD/JPY has significantly fallen on the news. The pair has tested below 50- and 100-day MAs. If the pair closes below them, the further fall will be more likely. The support is at 81.95 (50-hour MA).

On Tuesday, the US dollar index managed to reach the psychological level at $94.50 but didn’t have enough support to stick above it. Up to now, it has been trading lower; however, important economic data will be released today. PPI and core PPI data will be out today at 15:30 MT time. It may support the index or pull it further down. The forecast isn’t encouraging. However, if the actual data are greater than the forecast ones, the index will move to the resistance at $94.50 again. Otherwise, it will touch the support at $94.

Trade tensions are weighing on the market and on the EUR as well. Moreover, the President of the ECB Mr. Draghi didn’t give any clues on the future monetary policy in his speech at the ECB Statistics Conference (today at 10:00 MT time). As a result, the euro is down. EUR/USD has tested the support at 1.1735 (50-day MA) and is moving further down. The next support is at 1.17 (the pivot point). No more important economic data will be out today. Risks of the fall are high. However, if the USD doesn’t recover, the EUR/USD will have more chances to turn around and be above 1.1735.

Some news for the EUR.

The BOF governor and ECB member Mr. Villeroy said that the rate hike could take place at the earliest "through the summer of 2019". It will depend on an inflation outlook. Net asset purchases are anticipated to end in December.

The head of Italy’s 5 star movement Luigi Di Maio said that the government doesn’t think about a euro exit.

Positive signals for the euro, however, trade wars tensions and the economic data are stronger drivers.

It is an important day for the Canadian dollar. The BOC will release the interest rate at 17:00 MT time. Although 80% of the market expects the rate hike, the CAD is depreciating. The reason is worries about the dovish BOC statement. Analysts bet on the short CAD. Up to now, USD/CAD has already tested the first resistance at 1.3130 (the pivot point) and has been moving to the next one at 1.3180. If the release is really dovish, the pair will be able to test the resistance. Otherwise, the CAD will have chances to recover and USD/CAD will be below 1.3130. However, this scenario is less likely.

On Friday, the evergreen buck added against the Japanese yen and euro, drifting away from recent minimums, though revenues were capped as traders focused on a showdown between Donald Trump and members of his own party as for a fresh healthcare bill…