La banlieue l'emporte à Toronto

Toronto Coun. Rob Ford has widened his lead in the mayoral race, according to a new public opion poll. Toronto Coun. Rob Ford has widened his lead in the mayoral race, according to a new public opion poll. (CBC)

A new public opinion poll suggests that maverick councillor Rob Ford's campaign for mayor of Toronto has struck a deep chord with voters.

Among decided voters Ford's lead in the race is widening, according to the results of a survey done by Pollstra Research of Hamilton, Ont.

The city councillor's message in the campaign has been one of fiscal restraint — saying if he is elected he will cut the wasteful spending at city hall.

"Toronto has a spending problem, not a revenue problem," he says on his website.

The poll results released Wednesday show nearly 38 per cent of those who have made up their minds say they will vote for Ford on Oct. 25.

George Smitherman — Ford's nearest rival — has the overall support of about 29 per cent.

For Ford it means a jump of more than seven per cent in voter support since June, while support for Smitherman, Coun. Joe Pantalone and Sarah Thomson has remained flat.

"I find the results are a little surprising," said Josh Justice, president of the polling company, in a telephone interview with CBC News. "There has been a noticeable shift in momentum."

The poll shows the lion's share of Ford's support comes from the outside the old City of Toronto , with his strongest showing in the former municipalities of York, Scarborough, North York and especially on his home turf of Etobicoke.

Smitherman leads the polls in the City of Toronto and East York.

The Pollstra poll also asked the 432 respondents for their voting preference in federal politics —

and the results show Ford's appeal stretches across party lines.

Not surprisingly Ford has an enormous lead among Conservative supporters, with 65.7 per cent of those voters saying they intend to vote for him. The next closest candidate is Sarah Thomson with 11.6 per cent.

Surprisingly Ford also leads with Liberal supporters, although the margin of error puts him in a virtual tie with Smitherman, the former Ontario Liberal cabinet minister.

Among Liberals, 36.8 per cent of those surveyed say they would vote for Ford. Smitherman has the backing of 34.2 per cent.

When it comes to NDP supporters, deputy mayor Pantalone comes out on top with 36 per cent and Smitherman places second with 32 per cent. But 20 per cent of NDP supporters say they will vote for Ford.

The undecided vote also appears to be shrinking. While still at 32 per cent, Justice says it is not unusual to have that percentage at this stage in the election.

"It's kind of where we would put it," he said, pointing out that the number of undecided has dropped since June.

"Two-thirds have decided who they will support," Justice said.

The polling firm said the survey was commissioned by a non-partisan research group and carried out between July 30 and Aug. 5. The margin of error is 3.8 per cent 19 times out of 20.

That is exactly what is wrong with people from the left. They don't even want to hear the different opinions that a Rob Ford-style candidate brings.

That is funny. Because wasn't it a bunch of leftists who prevented Ann Coulter from speaking at the University of Ottawa? Or Benjamin Netanyahu in Montreal? Or tried awful hard to prevent George W. Bush from speaking at the Queen Elizabeth Hotel? Rob Ford (nor most right-wingers) are not angry about people thinking differently. We just won't stand for a bunch of hooligans trashing our city.

That is a cheap shot, and you know it. Not everyone is naturally built like a runner. Rob Ford's sport has always been football. A sport where it is of greater advantage to be large than to be small. Here is his opinion on bike lanes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aF_NgbtUR6E

He was talking to a career activist/protester not an actual homeless person. (and really - some of these activist-types should get jobs...)

A lot of people say bizarre things. Richard Bergeron has said a lot worse than Rob Ford ever said. (He thinks 9/11 is a conspiracy of the Bush administration, his quote about wanting to murder a motorist, he doesn't think man walked on the moon, etc. Some of his (many) quotes here: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/a.../06/c4507.html

I don't think he is favouring the "periphery" as you call it, I think he is actually acknowledging it exists, and that it is just as much a part of Toronto as Yorkville, Rosedale and Cabbagetown. Here is the Rob Ford transportation plan: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xfsIj6gYAw I think it makes a certain amount of sense. The suburbs should be linked up to the subway, and we can't deny that a lot of people need cars (why should we make life more difficult for them??)

This morning, Toronto awoke to a new era. After seven years of Mayor David Miller, voters did an abrupt u-turn and elected the fiscally prudent, anti-elite, suburban candidate, Etobicoke Councillor Rob Ford, as their next Mayor. The event brought back the memories of the 1995 Ontario provincial election, when Mike Harris, then the Progressive Conservative MP for North Bay, swept to victory on a wave of discontent with the big-spending, leftist regime of Ontario NDP Premier Bob Rae.

Then, as now, voters rejected the urbane vision presented to them by centre-left politicians, one which placed government at the centre of their lives. But Mr. Ford’s victory represents more than just a backlash against elitist big spending. It represents a potential right turn in the voting patterns of Toronto’s immigrant communities.

Unlike his opponents and the Toronto Star would have voters believe, white guys aren’t the only Torontonians who are angry: the whole city is. Or at least 47% of it is mad enough to elect a candidate who promises to “stop the gravy train” which they feel has been running far too long. Voter turnout was a whopping 50%, the highest in twelve years, up from 39% in 2006. Of 44 councillors, 9 incumbents did not run again, and voters turfed 6 others, including a number of left-wing stalwarts.

You only had to walk through Mr. Ford’s victory party last night to see how the city’s electoral allegiances are changing. The crowd was a representative mix, ethnically speaking, of the city the new Mayor is now to govern. Turbaned Sikhs partied with Chinese families. Black kids and white kids chased each other around the tables. Jews, Muslims, and Christians cheered and applauded Mr. Ford’s speech.

This should not come as a surprise; an EKOS poll published two days before the vote gave Mr. Ford 51.7 % of the vote of respondents born outside of Canada, compared to only 30.1 % for Mr. Smitherman. This, despite statements made by the Etobicoke Councillor about Toronto’s difficulty in absorbing more newcomers, which were characterized as anti-immigrant by his rivals.

Indeed, throughout this campaign, Mr. Ford’s chief opponent, former provincial Liberal cabinet minister George Smitherman, repeatedly claimed that he was the candidate who embraced diversity. But it didn’t return the favour. That’s because Mr. Smitherman’s definition of diversity is actually quite narrow. It is shared by people who, like him, believe in the ideals of feel-good multiculturalism, but don’t live the reality of immigrant life.

Newcomers to Toronto don’t have time to dwell on how to make Toronto “inclusive”. They aren’t interested in funding alternative art exhibits. They could care less about bicycle lanes. They are busy working night and day to feed their kids and put a roof over their heads. They don’t sympathize with “fair wage” policies that pay inflated prices to keep unions happy, at the expense of hard-working taxpayers like themselves.

Inclusiveness for immigrants in Toronto means getting a good job so their children can enjoy a higher standard of living than their parents. Participating in society is not achieved through parades, but by climbing the economic ladder. And that means electing a Mayor and Councillors who will create an atmosphere where business can flourish and create jobs, and where the taxpayer’s interests come before those of big labour and special interests.

That is why Mr. Ford’s message resonated with these voters, and Mr. Smitherman’s fell flat. Mr. Ford may be as white-bread suburbanite as can be, and personally wealthy to boot, but he has stood up for the “little guy” his entire political career. He empathizes with the underdog – he himself has been a political underdog for almost a decade, battling a left-leaning council. Immigrants are underdogs too, starting over in a new land to build a new life.

On a larger playing field, the results bode well for the provincial Progressive Conservatives, and possibly the federal Tories as well. Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak could translate voter anger at City Hall to rebellion against Premier Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals at Queen’s Park. And both parties could capitalize on inroads Mr. Ford made into the ethnic communities that have long been Liberal fiefdoms.

Mr. Ford ran a disciplined, focused campaign with one main goal in mind: cutting waste at City Hall. To retain the trust of the people who elected him, he will now have to deliver on that promise. Both Old Toronto and New Toronto, as well as politicians across the country, will be keeping a close eye on his progress.