This is me jumping on the Yasiel Puig bandwagon. Well, technically, I don’t jump. I float. Why? Wait, are you asking why I float or why I’m getting on the bandwagon? It’s pretty obvious why I float, so I’m going to assume you want to know why I’m on that there wagon. For the free web hits of course. There is a certain amount of Puigmania going on pretty much everywhere in the known universe, and especially on Uranus. Every time he comes up to bat, a samurai rescues seven kittens from that one ninja dude who cuts off their heads when someone masturbates. But this former Cuban outfielder represents an important case study in both his perceived value and his actual value. As always, we’ll be exploring these concepts. That is, after all, the normal Bear/Bull treatment. And based on the Puigmania, I sense that everyone is chomping at the bits about what to do with this guy, if anything. I promise the fact he’s already referred to as ManBearPuig will have no bearing on my decision. Maybe.

Called up and debuting on June 3rd of this year, Puig quickly showed that the hype was clearly warranted. In his second game, he hit two home runs and drove in five runs. In his fourth game, a grand slam. The following day? Another homerun. In that first week, Puig became only the 2nd player in the modern era to hit four homeruns in his first five games and also tied the Major League record for most RBI’s (10) in the same span. So far, in 20 games, he’s hit a robust 442/476/753 with 7 homeruns and 2 steals. WTF is right. Let’s partake in a GIF recap on some of the remarkable things Puig’s done.

A remarkable diving catch against the my Padres… again, a clear cut case of luck.

Yasiel Puig’s first career grand slam… not against the my Padres. Check out that legitimate skill!

Impressive, no? Even as a professed masochistic San Diego sports fan, which, yes, I know, is a redundant statement, I recognize the skills and respect them. But do I believe in them? Well, to an certain extent, of course I do. But here at Bear/Bull, we explore strange new projections, seek out new ways to look at stats, we boldly choose animals the best we can. Or something like that. So with that being said, his .509 BABIP in 82 PA’s is totally sustainable, said no one ever. We have to accept the fact that this is not his true talent level because there is no such thing as this talent level. If you want to try to argue that he’ll hit 36 homeruns with 73 RBI’s and 70 runs for the rest of the season, I would most likely want what you were smoking. No, I’m sure I’d want what you were smoking. So let’s just say Yasiel Puig is doing incredibly well, but will most likely not continue doing so. So the task here is two-fold, because I like folding paper, two times I guess. We need to figure out how much he’ll regress and whether or not you should cash in before said regression takes place.

Even though its easy to point to Puig’s .509 BABIP and call it day, if you know me, there won’t be a hanging of my hat on just one statistical indicator. If you don’t know me, then you should, because I smell of lavender and a touch of lilac. There are other factors at work that can help illustrate the type of player Puig is. I can accept the fact that Puig is an athletic specimen that has an abundance of raw tools at his disposal. More specifically, he has a good amount of speed and a great amount of raw power. But he also has a fair amount of strike zone problems. So far, he has drawn three non-intentional walks to 17 strikeouts. That’s a BB% of 3.7 and K% of 20.7. This isn’t necessarily the end of the world. In fact, do you know who shares similar BB and K career percentages? Adam Jones and Carlos Gomez.

Those are very intriguing comps, and I think one could conceivably come up with the same names just by anecdotal means. These two outfielders represent an offensive palette that has both power and speed along with lousy plate discipline, just like Puig. Presumably, the next question is, will Yasiel Puig make enough contact to be a career .280 hitter like Adam Jones? Or closer to the career .255 hitter Carlos Gomez is? Table time!

Note: Swing%- Total percentage of pitches a batter swings at, Contact%- Total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches, SwStr%- Swinging Strike Percentage.

The breakdown shows us a number of things. First, Puig is swinging at the most pitches. Second, he’s making the least amount of contact. And, thirdly, he has the highest swinging strike percentage. So, in fact, these plate discipline numbers tell us that Yasiel Puig might be worse than we thought. A lot worse. Or could be one of the best players in baseball. You don’t… what?

When searching for a player with the closest plate discipline profile in the history of the MLB, that’s the closest comp I could find– Josh Hamilton. Obviously, the Hambone of 2013 is clearly not the guy I’m talking about. (Not to mention I already warned you about him a few months back) But career wise, I think both the Dodgers and fantasy owners would be giddy with anticipation if this is who Puig will turn out to be. Now, we are still in the infant stages of Yasiel Puig’s career, so to extrapolate what little sample size we have into some kind of firm conclusion is folly. But I should note that, according to the post I did on stat thresholds, Puig’s K% has stabilized, in that, his 20.7% could be in the ballpark of his true talent level. We’ll have to wait about 40 more PA’s for his BB% to stabilize, but, again, I hate to beat on a dead horse, because that’s morbid, but also because anything could happen in terms of Puig’s prognosis. Pitchers will adjust as time goes on, and so must Puig if he wishes to progress as a player. His closest comp, Josh Hamilton, shows us that an aggressive hitter can still be an elite hitter… for a while at least. It only took the league what, almost a decade to figure out Hambone? That’s a lot of time to do a lot of damage. But the operative phrase here is ‘counter adjustment’. That’s when we’ll see who and what Puig is.

Regression will happen. That much is for certain. How much? That is less certain. The power and speed are legitmate, no doubt. Puig’s current approach might hurt him. Or, he just might be so good at all the other things, no one will give a flying fudge. Mmmm. Fudge. For the rest of the season, I could see 42/14/52/270/5 over the next 70 or so games. But here’s the catch. In both redraft and keeper leagues, I’m trying to sell early and often. Look, I understand the mystique. Men want be him, and women want to sleep with him. Men also might want to sleep with him. I get it, I really do… but so does everyone else, 10-fold. I recently got asked on twitter if I would trade Yasiel Puig for Evan Longoria.

That is a ridiculously perfect example of selling high. And also how to shaka without getting in the way of such a handsome face. Dat cultured look brah. Yeah, Yasiel Puig might be the next Josh Hamilton. I know this because I’m the one who said it. But even I have to accept the fact that Puig’s only played in 20 games. He could also be the next Jeff Francoeur despite everything I’ve typed out. If you can get a top-30 hitter or top-20 pitcher, I’m probably doing it.

In dynasty leagues, I’m approaching this the exact same way. If you’re going for it, flags fly forever, etc., so yes, if the move helps you now, sell. You need that ace pitcher? Dangle him out there. Need an elite corner infielder? See the tweet above. What if you are in standings basement amidst a fire sale? Holding onto him as a cornerstone player is just fine and dandy, and I can’t argue against this. But why not put him on the block and see if you can get multiple young elite pieces to mitigate your future risk? As you might tell by now, the conclusion seems to be that I want you to sell sell sell. That’s not the case at all. Just know that what he’s done in the last two weeks has not been done before. And he will most likely not do it again. What I’m saying is, why not find someone who thinks different? Put him out there. Worst case scenario, someone doesn’t want to pay an exorbitant price, you have a potential superstar in the making. This is the win-win scenario every fantasy player wants to be in.

Folks, what can I say? There is no debate. ManBearPuig is most certainly half man, and most certainly half bear… but he’s definitely all Puig.

Final Verdict:

Jaywrong is a 30-year old Korish writer who finds solace using Makers Mark as a vehicle to impress average-looking women, and also has an affinity for making Jennifer Lawrence GIFs. You can follow him @jaywrong, read his blog Desultory Thoughts of a Longfellow, or, you can find his GIFs at his tumblr, named Siuijeonseo.

12 team mixed roto. I am leading the league in HR and RBI. Have room to improve in Runs, Steals and AVG. About who should I target for Puig? I am thinking of trying to get Ellsbury. Any other suggestions?

I have watched every game he has played and the Frenchy comparison lacks one minor detail…..Frenchy ain’t Cuban. I give this kid bonus points for that alone. He has this thing about him that reminds me of Trout last year and Braun in his rookie year. I think he has top 20 talent written all over him, or I might have drank too much of the Puig Punch and been tripping balls for the last two weeks. Only time will tell and I ain’t no columnist, but I am an amateur know it all.

Sorry I haven’t been commenting as much on you lately, twitter allows me to stalk from afar.

Your timing is impeccable! I own ManBearPuig in a keeper league. I am struggling with a man-crush because I know if I send him away I will never get him back. I know I should accept this deal but the pussified female in me says to double check. So here is what I was offered the following this morning (keeper rules in parenthesis):

But I don’t try to dabble with bullpen arms in keeper leagues. However, based on what you’ve said, Jose would be the only one you would keep… I think I would want at least one more long-term asset here, probably instead of Bourn and/or Jansen.

I had been discussing a $3 Puig/$8 Craig for $4 Edwin Encarnacion/$1 Fowler deal before the other owner bailed. After the last couple days I think he’s had a change of heart. I’m hesitant to pull the trigger but I love me some Encarnacion. Think I should take it?

Keeper increase: we can keep up to 10. If you keep 1-5, they each go up $3/year. If you keep 6-8 they each go up $4/year. If you keep 9-10, they each go up $5/year.

Hi, please give me your opinion. i have alex cobb on my DL in my 8 team h2h league that counts saves+holds together. I have cingrani on my team thinking that he could get some holds and also be a starter later… but JJ Putz & Chris Perez are available on the WW. so i could drop cobb & Cingrani to pick up Putz & Perez and store one on the DL spot.. would you go that route? i also have Nathan, Papelbon & fernando rodney as my other closers.

Good article, but it’s ambiguity leaves something to be desired. I appreciate the comparison to Adam Jones and Car-Gom (will that moniker catch on, or, too close to Car-go?), but you’re forgetting that both of those players did NOTHING in their first couple of years in comparison to what Puig is currently doing. Situations (i.e., yearly league/keeper league, current standing, etc.) dictate what you an individual owner “should” do with Puig, but after watching baseball closely for the past 25 years, Puig is doing things in his first 20+ games that NO ONE has managed to do. Of course other MLB teams will adjust and his numbers will come down from where they’re currently at, but there’s no denying that he’s a special player. Not a proverbial “flash in the pan”, but a midseason call-up that is reminiscent of what Braun, Trout, and Harper managed to do.

If you’re in a keeper-league, you cannot trade him, period. If you’re not, and simply forecasting the rest of the season, then see if what you can fetch for him now makes sense to your playoff aspirations. Puig is a phenomenal player. I absolutely don’t understand why everyone is so quick to dismiss what he’s done thus far when you compare it with what all-star caliber players have done in the past.

Great read Jay! Puig is an interesting bird. One of the reasons I love baseball is the folklore that goes along with the players, especially when time passes and we start saying “remember when” All the fantasy predictions aside, I have a feeling his awesome start is something I’ll tell my little guy about, he just seems to have that thing you can’t put your finger on surrounding him as a player…if he’s good enough for Scully he’s good enough for me…

Been watching the Giants-Dodgers series on MLB.tv. Puig is massive. Absolutely massive. Hate the Dodgers, but he’s some kind of talent. I respect you for admitting your Padres fanhood, especially if you actually watch the games. Went to a game several years ago and nobody was paying attention. They were either talking about fish tacos, or holding their babies up so they could get on the Jumbo-tron. Has anything changed?

But anyway, an actual fantasy baseball question here. Been offered Zimmerman and Asdrubal Cabrera for David Ortiz. On the one hand, it would allow me to “solve” my issues at 3B (currently playing Arenado, have played C. Johnson and Lawrie) and replace Brandon Crawford at my MI slot with Cabrera. Plus, I might be able to get Butler off my bench (no idea if that’s a positive). On the other hand, it feels like I’m giving up one of my most consistent run producers for a couple of fragile guys. Your thoughts? Thanks.

So do you prune him .. I do not have the luxury of benching him… After slow start in “O”…. And I run many closers early… so I need to start accumulating GS… innings really… It’s a Yahoo league…

Give me your super duty mojo on this one, …

O by the way… Mr Gray has been acting a little strange (sorta reserved) towards me lately… You don’t think, he’s been reading about our plans for the new website home page featuring you as The Star of RazzBall, do ya..

Think’n maybe he has and he’s taken it a little hard or something like that???

I know these type of things typically work themselves out by the end of the season, but I foresee troubling and difficult keeper decisions to make at the end of the season. We can keep two hitters for as long as our hearts desire. Here’s the decisions that are developing on my team (with the draft pick I’d forfeit to keep each player each year forever):

@Club Sauce: I’d keep Puig and Segura because of the round value, and then sell on the rest. I almost went with Davis, as I’m a believer, but maybe you could get some nice parts for a team that’s making a run.

Would you trade Shields for Lance Lynn and Sandoval? I’m in first in an 8 team league roto and I don’t really need hitting as I’m first or second in all hitting categories, but my 3b right now is headley/prado. My staff is Kersh, Lee, Shields, Hamels, Samardzja, Bailey, and Price once he gets back.

Jay, any chance you could do one of these masterful reviews of Cole Hamels? I daresay the one you did on Jay Bruce got me to the first place I’m currently bouncing into & out of once it was easier to see what was going on with him & he then started rebounding. All I keep seeing regarding Hamels’ struggles are that it’s “just bad luck” but they never mention his peripherals to prove a second half rebound may be in the cards. I’m negotiating a deal to get him & am interested in your take on his outlook.

@Clint: I believe he’s going to be in my buy/sell for the second half, which will come out around all-star break.

Teaser: Unless there’s an injury, I think he’ll do better. There really is no huge change from last year concerning peripherals, so its kinda put me into a holding pattern with him. Still a good buy low to take a chance on.

Hey there GuD morning so I wake up this morning to a trade offer and still kinda sleepy lol but was offered Yu Darvish for Puig and Pence!! Should I take it? Do I need it? Lol here’s my roster redraft.