DSpace Community:http://dspace.cityu.edu.hk:80/handle/2031/712
Mon, 29 Jun 2015 16:28:18 GMT2015-06-29T16:28:18ZIntelligent investment decision support for bankruptcy contagion : conceptual modeling and prototype developmenthttp://dspace.cityu.edu.hk:80/handle/2031/7181
Title: Intelligent investment decision support for bankruptcy contagion : conceptual modeling and prototype development
Authors: Cheng, Lin (程琳)
Abstract: ﻿It is widely believed that economic and financial systems have exhibited an increasingly intertwined nature in economic globalization and regional integration, which has provided the diffusion path for the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. Corporate bankruptcy occurs when an entity experiences chronic and serious losses and/or when an entity becomes insolvent with liabilities that are disproportionate to assets. Traditionally, bankruptcy of a firm is attributed to the entity’s own poor management and autocratic leadership. However, with the increasing interconnection of trading partners along the supply network, bankruptcy of a supply chain firm may cause other members to endure distressing situations. Specifically, distress related to bankruptcy filing at one firm may have value implications for firms with which it is connected through trade credit channels. In a network economy, this phenomenon is termed bankruptcy contagion or financial contagion. An intuitive explanation of bankruptcy contagion is the avalanche of debt chains or credit chains. The current financial crisis triggered by the 2008 sub-prime mortgage crisis is typical evidence of this viewpoint.
Due to the complex structure and dynamic interaction of modern supply networks, pure analytical approaches face a number of difficulties in analyzing the financial status of supply chain members and hence predicting stock price movements in response to unexpected events. Mathematical and operation research models usually do not function very well for this kind of financial decision-making, because they always start with many assumptions and have difficulty modeling such complex systems that include many entities, relationships, features, parameters and constraints. In addition, traditional modeling and analytical tools lack the ability to predict the impact of a specific event on the performance of the entire supply network. For example, traditional financial data analysis with large volumes of structured data and historical time series cannot offer the full picture and intrinsic insights into the risk nature of the company’s financial status and its stock performance from different perspectives. There is no doubt that studying the structure and dynamics of trade credit contagion will provide a revolutionary insight into our understanding of the financial status of different entities in the supply network, which suggests that there are predictive implications for many application domains such as risk monitoring in portfolio management.
This research presents an information and knowledge exchange framework to support distributed problem solving. From the application viewpoint, the study concentrates on the financial investment domain; however, many of the solutions presented can be extended to other dynamic domains. A conceptual model is first presented to lay a solid foundation for the analysis, design and development of our prototype system. This conceptual model includes two components: (1) a formal ontology that makes it possible to represent and implement relevant domain knowledge of financial contagion effects triggered by a bankruptcy event and (2) semantic rules added to extend inference capability and enable the automation of problem-solving. Based on the ontological knowledge model of bankruptcy contagion, the proposed prototype is developed to help shareholders, policy makers and related managers to identify candidate firms affected by a financially distressed firm, and to analyze possible valuation effects from an investment perspective. Based on the well-developed conceptual model, a multi-agent decision support system is developed to continuously observe real-time news reports and forecast their potential impact on the corresponding stock price. After identifying the related companies for which significant market reactions can be expected, a wireless push-based message service promptly supplies information to investors. Lastly, a case study is used to demonstrate the use of our approach, from the conceptual phase to the implementation stage. The case study shows that our approach effectively manages the intricate and dynamic contagion effects occurring along the supply chain and provides constructive advice to enable investors and analysts to take proactive action.
Notes: CityU Call Number: HG4515.5 .C465 2012; vii, 77 leaves : ill. 30 cm.; Thesis (Ph.D.)--City University of Hong Kong, 2012.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 71-77)Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMThttp://dspace.cityu.edu.hk:80/handle/2031/71812012-01-01T00:00:00ZUnderstanding the sustainability of micro-blogging sites : an investigation of users' quality perceptions and continuance intentionshttp://dspace.cityu.edu.hk:80/handle/2031/6965
Title: Understanding the sustainability of micro-blogging sites : an investigation of users' quality perceptions and continuance intentions
Authors: Xu, Wanying (許萬盈)
Abstract: ﻿Micro-blog is a new form of social communication service which allows users to post short
contents on the Web through a variety of devices like smart phones, tablets, and PCs. Yet, its
dramatic growth in the past few years is not likely to save it from competition and exempt its
slowing growth. It's a great concern for micro-blogging sites to maintain its existing users. This
study tries to explain the sustainability of micro-blogging sites from users' perspective, as it
depends on users' behavior of continuance or not. While numerous studies have investigated users'
adoption intention, few of them focus on users' post-adoption intention: continuance intention.
Thus this research aims to answer two questions: (1) What are the salient factors contributing to
users' continuance intention with micro-blogs? (2) How do these salient factors influence microblogging
sites users' continuance intention?
In this thesis, a research model was proposed to investigate the factors contributing to users'
continuance intention of using micro-blogging sites. Building on the Information Systems (IS)
Continuance Model, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Motivation Theory, this thesis
proposed three antecedents for users' continuance intention, including perceived usefulness,
satisfaction, and perceived enjoyment. Besides explaining users' continuance intention, this
research also tried to find out the quality of micro-blogging sites that would lead to users'
perception of ease of use, usefulness, and enjoyableness. Thus, following the IS success model and
social capital theory, three types of micro-blogging sites' quality were proposed, including system
quality, information quality, and social capital. All in all, by employing the IS Continuance Model,
TAM, Motivation Theory, IS Success Model, and Social Capital Theory, this research examined
seven factors which have direct or indirect effects on micro-blogs users' continuance intention.
Face-to-face interviews as well as an online survey were employed to collect data for the test of the
proposed model. To get an initial understanding of micro-blogs users' continuance intention, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 11 interviewees. And then an online survey study was
carried out by distributing the questionnaire on Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk). The data was
analyzed using Partial Least Squares (PLS), and the results provided support for 11 out of the 12
hypotheses. In detail, the effect of satisfaction on users' continuance intention is supported in this
study, which means satisfied users are more willing to continue to use the micro-blogs. Besides,
users' perceived usefulness of the micro-blogging sites has a significant effect on users'
continuance intention. This result pointed out the importance of providing utilitarian value to users
even though micro-blogs are usually used in free time or at home. Furthermore, the results have
confirmed that: (1) micro-blogs' system quality is positively related with users' perceived ease of
use and (2) both information quality and social capital have significant effects on users' perception
of usefulness as well as perceived enjoyment. Contrary to our expectation, users' perception on the
enjoyment of using the micro-blogging sites fails to have a significant direct effect on continuance
intention. Several possible explainations concerning the result were later discussed in the paper.
This thesis entails significant implications for both research and practice. In terms of research, it
provides a better understanding for the underlying mechanism of how users form their continuance
intention toward micro-blogs. It also identifies micro-blogging sites' critical characteristics, which
would contribute to users' beliefs towards the micro-blogs. For practice, it offers design guidelines
for practitioners to sustain their existing users and micro-blogging sites.
Notes: CityU Call Number: HM742 .X8 2012; viii, 121 leaves : ill. 30 cm.; Thesis (M.Phil.)--City University of Hong Kong, 2012.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 101-112)Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMThttp://dspace.cityu.edu.hk:80/handle/2031/69652012-01-01T00:00:00ZDistributed traffic information systems : theory, simulation and prototype developmenthttp://dspace.cityu.edu.hk:80/handle/2031/6964
Title: Distributed traffic information systems : theory, simulation and prototype development
Authors: Wang, Wei (王瑋)
Abstract: ﻿Distributed traffic information systems (DTIS) are traffic information systems based
on inter-vehicle communication. DTIS constitute a developing system that promises
greater safety, comfort and convenience in transportation systems. Compared with
centralized traffic information systems (CTIS), DTIS require less investment, have
stronger resilience to disruptions and disasters and are more suitable for some vital
traffic safety applications such as highway collision avoidance and advanced driver
assistance systems. A number of projects (e.g., PATH; CarTalk; FleetNet) have
explored enabling technologies and applications of DTIS. To guide the future
deployment of DTIS, researchers have tried to construct theoretical models and use
simulations to investigate DTIS performances under different traffic situations.
This thesis conducts its research on DTIS from three perspectives-(1) theoretical
model construction, (2) simulation software development, and (3) prototype
application design.
Firstly, it develops theoretical models to evaluate DTIS performance under different
traffic situations. As a decentralized system, DTIS highly relies on inter-vehicle
communication (IVC) as its information exchange infrastructure. Due to the limited
communication coverage range, IVC depends on wireless-communication relay
within traffic streams to transmit information. However, dynamic topology of IVC
equipped vehicles (simply referred as "equipped vehicles" later) makes IVC not as reliable as centralized wireless communication. Since whether information can be
timely transmitted through IVC to targeted vehicles is essential to the usability of
DTIS, to analyze how fast information can be transmitted through IVC becomes an
important research question. In this thesis, based on traffic-flow theory, probabilistic
models are developed to predict mean value of IVC-message transmission speed,
which can be used as indexes of IVC efficiencies. This model could provide
analytical results for estimating DTIS performance. It reveals various traffic
parameters’ (e.g., traffic density, traffic flow direction, traffic speed, and etc.) effects
on DTIS efficiency. These would help DTIS design (e.g., help to decide how many
equipped vehicles should be deployed for a certain DTIS service in a city) in the
future.
Secondly, a software package is developed for simulation of IVC in DTIS.
Simulation is an important technique for research of DTIS. Compared with
theoretical models, simulation could embrace more complicated traffic settings (e.g.,
traffic lights, traffic incidents and etc.) and can better help identify these traffic
settings’ effects on DTIS. Furthermore, simulation provides an effective way for
validating results of theoretical models. Based on a commercial microscopic traffic
simulation tool -PARAMICS, a software package for simulations of IVC in DTIS is
developed with C++. This software package provides a useful means for
understanding how IVC message would spread in complex traffic scenarios.
Moreover, theoretical results in this thesis are also verified with the software package’s simulation results.
Thirdly, a prototype design of a typical application of DTIS - autonomous
traffic-condition collecting & sharing - is conducted in this paper. The prototype
design is divided into two parts in this paper. In part 1, the required equipped vehicle
population size, which would guarantee the system’s normal functioning, is
estimated with proposed theoretical models. In part 2, a prototype device for this
application, including hardware part and software part, is developed. IEEE 802.11 a
protocol is used as the IVC protocol for test because IEEE 802.11 p is based on IEEE
802.11 a. Experiments are done with prototype devices to show that the proposed
application could provide new services to traffic users in real life.
In conclusion, this thesis focuses its research on DTIS. Theoretical models and
simulation tools are developed to investigate the performance of DTIS under
different traffic scenarios. Furthermore, a prototype design for a typical DTIS
application is finished in this thesis. The thesis’s contribution could be regarded as
threefold: (1) It proposes an effective theoretical model for evaluating DTIS
performance; (2) It develops an efficient software package for delicate DTIS
simulation; (3) A prototype design is conducted to explore potential DTIS application
which could be deployed in the future.
Notes: CityU Call Number: TE228.3 .W36 2012; viii, 108 leaves : ill. 30 cm.; Thesis (Ph.D.)--City University of Hong Kong, 2012.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 89-108)Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMThttp://dspace.cityu.edu.hk:80/handle/2031/69642012-01-01T00:00:00ZExploring the antecedents of information systems habit formation in learning systems : roles of personalized IT applications and social effectshttp://dspace.cityu.edu.hk:80/handle/2031/6963
Title: Exploring the antecedents of information systems habit formation in learning systems : roles of personalized IT applications and social effects
Authors: Mark, Kai Pan (麥啟彬)
Abstract: ﻿With the increasing number of digital native Information Systems (IS) users, one
challenge in IS research is to sustain users' long term continuous IS usage, especially
among digital natives. As reported in different studies, IS users generally show positive
IS acceptance behavior at the beginning but negative long term IS continuance as time
passes. This phenomenon is also common among users of different educational
technologies, e.g., learning systems under institutional and other organizational settings.
In the educational context, learning systems continuance affects learners' achievement
of learning outcomes, especially in fostering reflective practice through sustained and
lifelong learning.
This thesis addresses the serious problem of negative IS continuance over the long term.
Attempts to theorize IS continuance issues have been reported in the literature. IS
researchers have proposed different theoretical frameworks and practical guidelines to
address IS continuance over the past two decades. Most researchers emphasize users'
conscious (e.g., rational and emotional) behavior in order to explain and predict IS
continuance behavior. The effect of users' unconscious behavior (e.g., IS habit) on IS
continuance, however, has long been understudied, and there is still a paucity of
research, as the studies on IS habit mostly present statistical analysis of habitual effects
on IS continuance behavior. Attempts to identify and validate antecedents of IS habit
have only started recently. There is also a dearth of qualitative research to explore issues
related to IS habit formation.
To fill the research gaps, the objectives of this thesis are to: (1) identify the antecedents
of IS habit, e.g., through IT functionality design and users' peer effect; (2) evaluate the
relationships between the IS habit antecedents, IS habit and IS continuance behavior; and (3) propose practical guidelines on aligning learning systems with curriculum
design to achieve long term continuance.
To fulfill these objectives, a series of two qualitative and quantitative studies designed
under the Action Design Research (ADR) methodology to address the theoretical gap on
antecedents of IS habit and to ascertain their impacts in the context of learning systems
are carried out. Using Automatic Lecture Capturing System (ALCS) and Moodle
Learning Management System (LMS) as the case settings in the two studies, the first
study identifies student and teacher perceptions on ALCS usefulness, and proposes
ways to foster long term continuance technically, pedagogically and institutionally. The
second study then seeks empirical evidence to ascertain the impact of two representative
findings, i.e., personalized IT applications and peer effects, in developing IS habit.
Results suggest that learning systems continuance can be achieved by awareness of a
combination of IT artifact extension, better student and teacher motivation, improved
teaching and institutional policies facilitating its usage, as well as developed habitual
usage. IS habit formation is positively related to availability of personalized IT
applications and peer effect. Practically, learning system habits can be fostered through
early introduction of peer learning activities that utilize the personalization features.
The contributions of this thesis are twofold. Theoretically, the study addresses the gap
in how IS habitual behavior can be fostered through different antecedents. Practically,
this research is useful to teachers and educational IS designers in educational
information systems to develop and apply different system features so to foster users' IS
habit in order to maximize the learning system utilization.
Notes: CityU Call Number: LB1028.5 .M37 2012; xii, 174 leaves : ill. 30 cm.; Thesis (Ph.D.)--City University of Hong Kong, 2012.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 166-174)Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMThttp://dspace.cityu.edu.hk:80/handle/2031/69632012-01-01T00:00:00Z