Don't believe the hype about the decline of America and the dawn of a new Asian age. It will be many decades before China, India, and the rest of the region take over the world, if they ever do.

"Power Is Shifting from West to East."

Not really. Dine on a steady diet of books like The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East or When China Rules the World, and it's easy to think that the future belongs to Asia. As one prominent herald of the region's rise put it, "We are entering a new era of world history: the end of Western domination and the arrival of the Asian century."

Sustained, rapid economic growth since World War ii has undeniably boosted the region's economic output and military capabilities. But it's a gross exaggeration to say that Asia will emerge as the world's predominant power player. At most, Asia's rise will lead to the arrival of a multi-polar world, not another unipolar one.

Asia is nowhere near closing its economic and military gap with the West. The region produces roughly 30 percent of global economic output, but because of its huge population, its per capita gdp is only $5,800, compared with $48,000 in the United States. Asian countries are furiously upgrading their militaries, but their combined military spending in 2008 was still only a third that of the United States. Even at current torrid rates of growth, it will take the average Asian 77 years to reach the income of the average American. The Chinese need 47 years. For Indians, the figure is 123 years. And Asia's combined military budget won't equal that of the United States for 72 years.

Even at current torrid rates of growth, it will take the average Asian 77 years to reach the income of the average American. The Chinese need 47 years. For Indians, the figure is 123 years. And Asia's combined military budget won't equal that of the United States for 72 years.

That will certainly change now that we have Carter part 2 in charge as POTUS.

No, it really won't. Nothing that happens in one term, short of world war, changes such things.

The masses of Asia are still poorer than dirt. There is a new middle class industrializing its coastlines, who have about reached the standard of living Americans enjoyed about 80 years ago.

In an ordinary non-recession year, the US adds new income - wealth per unit time indefinitely - of $400-500 billion in real terms, and twice that in nominal terms (before adjusting for price changes). China adds less than $300 billion. The absolute gap is still widening - their faster percentage rate is on a much lower base. Then they get to spread that new income over 3 times as many people...

Err, 4.3 times as many people actually... 3/4 of the new income for 4.3 times as many people, means each person's income goes up only 18% as much there as it does here. And wealth is the integral of that income.

The only way anyone can speak of anyone in Asia catching up is by heroically projecting exponential growth at unchanged rates generations into the future, which there is no particular reason to believe. They are freeing themselves from absolute poverty. That's the most that can be said.

Asia pays its bills. Asia doesn't borrow from future earnings to allow its citizens to simulate upper middle class lifestyles. Asia now offers a less corrupt, more level playing field than the USA. Asians are willing to work very hard to earn what they want. Asian poor are lean, smart and hungry - American poor are fat, dumb, and lazy. The trappings of wealth they have guilted away from their betters do not change this truth.

Smart Americans need to visit Asia for themselves and see the seismic shift that is occurring. No web commentary can adequately describe it.

There is no day imminent where China will declare - "Aha, we are your masters now!" It will simply become self-evident to the rest of the world in a few decades.

5
posted on 08/13/2009 4:21:32 PM PDT
by Mr. Jeeves
("If you cannot pick it up and run with it, you don't really own it." -- Robert Heinlein)

The dynamics are set, as they were in America at the beginning of the 20th century: production has shifted to Asia with wealth along with it, global investment, new technologies, a growing middle class...

But the larger question is if Asian political culture can sustain the growth. The resources and economic contingencies of North/South America don’t necessarily point to U.S. dominance; something other than the “sea to shining sea” was at work, and the core matter for Asia is if it can grow without the political freedoms and protections of sustained capitalism.

China has weathered the first storms of capitalism, but it has hardly been tested. It has survived the Asian currency boom and the real estate boom here: can it survive its own excesses? That will be the test.

All of this is assuming that national borders remain constant over the next 70-100 years. However, anybody with an old globe or world map lying around the house can easily see that the borders of nations are shifting constantly.

Within the next century, our national borders will be dramtically different than they are today. For example, most of Europe is currently engaged in a process of becoming one borderless nation.

As well, Canada and perhaps even Mexico will be absorbed into the United States. I also see Australia and New Zealand following suit (joining the United States) as well as many Central and South American countries. Eventually the world will be reduced to five or six "super-nations".

I could not speak out against the Gov’t of Singapore, I had no freedom of speech, no more than 3 people could form a group[secret society], there was no place[except for one, only with a permit] where I could hear opposing views of the Gov’t, etc. Those are a few.

I could not speak out against the Govt of Singapore, I had no freedom of speech, no more than 3 people could form a group[secret society], there was no place[except for one, only with a permit] where I could hear opposing views of the Govt, etc. Those are a few.

I go to Singapore often. I see groups of people everywhere. I worked with those people there and here in the USA. They have never complained about their country. They are capitalist and Singapore has some of the lowest personal and corporate taxes in the world.

I’ve advocated for years having the United States expand by admitting more states to the Union. For some reason, many fellow conservatives here find that blasphemous. In fact, many of them actually advocate having existing states secede from the Union. I don’t understand why. So long as the new states adopt the Constitution, we should continue to admit more of them.

One thing noted in the article is that the Chinese use charcoal for indoor heating, and that contributes to the death rate. Industrial smog and fly ash take their time to hurt you, but a whole night breathing CO in a confined space will make for a very late rising in the am. Apparently deaths from this source are included in that figure.

Well, that’s the flaw in the plan: you might admit new states and wind up with a bunch of voters who don’t really understand or appreciate the Constitution — kind of like what has happened with California and New York. I don’t know how you would check the tendency towards deviationism.

As well, Canada and perhaps even Mexico will be absorbed into the United States. I also see Australia and New Zealand following suit (joining the United States) as well as many Central and South American countries. Eventually the world will be reduced to five or six "super-nations".

You're right about the former: Canada and Mexico will most definitely be part of the USA for better or worse by the end of this century. the US naturally expands.

I don't see Australia joining the US, they may be carved up by India, China and Indonesia.

Asia now offers a less corrupt, more level playing field than the USA.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHave you ever avtually lived in SE Asia?

Less corrupt? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Corruption in SE Asia is a way of life. From the lowliest civil servant to the highest power in the land, they are ALL up for sale. The only thing distinguishing one from the other is price.Of course, as with any rule there are exceptions but they are few and far between.

24
posted on 08/14/2009 6:44:10 AM PDT
by Just another Joe
(Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)

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