Thursday, February 10, 2011

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Thursday's GamesIt's a big night in Bubbleville, as a half dozen teams play games that could have long-term impact on their at-large hopes.

The most important game of the night is UConn at St. John's. The Red Storm have a top 25 RPI and more big wins than any other bubble team, but they also have nine losses and a difficult schedule left. This game isn't necessarily a must-win, but a loss would leave St. John's at 6-5 in conference and with a little less margin for error going forward. They play at Cincinnati on Sunday and then at Marquette and at home against Pittsburgh next week.

In the SEC, Alabama plays at Vanderbilt, and in the Big Ten, Illinois plays at Minnesota and Penn State plays at Michigan State. The Tide have been the most debated team in our comments section over the past week because of their 7-1 SEC record, their terrible RPI, and their ratio of bad losses to good wins. They aren't at-large worthy yet, even with the bubble as soft as it is, but a road win against the Commodores would get them some serious consideration next week. Bama's schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way, and a 12-4 finish (even in the awful SEC West) would probably be enough to get the Tide a bid.

The Penn State-Michigan State game is a must-win for both teams. Despite some nice wins, neither of these teams look like NCAA tournament teams right now and neither would be in the bracket if the season ended today. The loser is going to have to go on a huge run to get back on the right side of the bubble. The Illinois-Minnesota game features two teams that just need to stop the bleeding. Illinois has lost five of seven and is down to an 8 seed this week, while Minnesota has lost three straight and has slid down to a 7. The Illini might be in more trouble with a loss here; they have three tough road games left and a date with Purdue in Champaign on Saturday. A 9-9 finish, with their decent OOC resume, might be enough for a bid, but they'd need a win in the Big Ten tournament to feel safe. Having Maryland and Gonzaga (two of their OOC victories) win some games down the stretch wouldn't hurt, either.

Finally, in the Pac-10, UCLA hosts Oregon, Washington hosts Cal, and Washington State hosts Stanford. The Cougars barely hung on to a bid in our latest bracket after getting drubbed at Oregon State, and they'll have to sweep Stanford and Cal at home over the weekend to stay in on Monday.

Also keep an eye on: Florida State at Georgia Tech, St. Mary's at Santa Clara, Gonzaga at Loyola Marymount, Wright State at Butler

Does Michigan's win last night move them up to at least considered for an at large? Every major bracket prediction has no mention of Michigan as having a shot. 15-10 with a few chances left to gain top 50 wins, do you think they have enough to make a late push and crash the dance?

well St. John's also beat Georgetown, Notre Dame and West Virginia. It wasn't just Duke.

And I think Old Dominion is being overlooked here. The appear to have a better resume than at least both Memphis and Kansas State. The should be an at-large. UAB and even Mississippi need to be looked at as well for consideration.

Yes, but that one win over Duke is better than the entire OOC of the SEC West combined. On your theory of in-conference does not count, we would basically have to throw out 3/4 of the SEC (Florida, TN, and KY can go -- no-one else), almost all of the ACC and probably half of the Big XII.

Heck, St. Johns is basically Florida State, but with better in-conference wins -- they each hold Duke up as the marquee win, but at least St. John's has something else to back it with. Both have bad losses (Fordham, Auburn), both beat a couple of mid-tier BCS opponents (ASU & Northwestern, Clemson & Baylor). I certainly would not consider road losses @St. Mary's and @UCLA to be bad losses -- certainly no worse than @Butler and home loss to Florida. The difference is that Duke is the only good win FSU has other than Clemson & Baylor, while St. Johns has, in addition to Duke, ASU and Northwestern also Georgetown, WV and Notre Dame.

Basically, mag900, the logical conclusion of your argument that wins over Duke, Georgetown, Notre Dame and West Virginia is not enough to off-set double digit losses is to go the BIG XII / SEC route - 1 or 2 games only against good OOC teams, lots of easy wins versus patsies who are willing to play without a return visit, and then whine "but we have such a tough conference, wahhhh"

St. John's has to be close to lock status after tonight's game. With a SOS that's likely to be #1 or 2 at the end of the year, and wins over Duke, Georgetown, and UConn, I can't see the committee leaving out the Red Storm even if they only finish 8-10 given how weak the bubble is. With home games left against DePaul and USF, I can't see them finishing any worse than that. One win out of the other 5 (home against Pitt, road against Cincy, Marquette, Villanova, and Seton Hall) should seal it.

Also, I think tonight's game was further proof of how overrated UConn is. Let's face it: UConn is 6-2 in games decided by 5 points or less and their Pomeroy ranking was 18 entering tonight. The biggest reason they are in the top 10 right now is plain luck.

Looks like St. John's, Michigan St., and Florida St. took care of business in the early session--I assume all of those wins improved their stock, especially St. John's collection of yet another Top 50 win (even though it was at home).

Let's see if Alabama can collect another SEC East win tonight in the later games.

If this is what Washington looks like when they're focused, they shouldn't have a problem staying on pace for a bid.

While I agree that UConn is not a top ten team, they were at one point in the year. They beat Texas, Tennessee, MSU, and Kentucky. That being said they're starting to play like the team picked 10th in the Big East again.

Then again, we seem to be running out of Top 10 quality teams. Other than OSU, Kansas, and Texas, nobody's really distinguished themselves this year. Duke is vulnerable to size, and Pitt just isn't that good.

St John's would have to really fall apart to miss the tournament now. 11 bids for the Big East is looking very likely.

Minnesota is probably in at 9-9, with their solid non-conference wins vs WVU and UNC. Their remaining schedule isn't bad, but 4-2 in the last 6 is no guarantee.

Michigan St saved their season tonight (Penn St should start worrying about making the NIT), but they still have a long way to go. Their schedule down the stretch is much tougher, I see only one or two games of the 6 where they'll be favored and 9-9 might not be enough to get them in.

If Minnesota goes 9-9 in conference and wins one game in the Big Ten tourney, they'll be in. If they finish 9-9 and lose in the first round, they'll be sweating it out Selection Sunday as one of the last teams in or out.

It's really hard to imagine St. John's not making it now (barring an all-out collapse.) They have five wins over the RPI Top 25, a 19 RPI, and the No. 1 SOS in the country. Sounds like a tournament resume to us.

Well, I think you'll probably have Washington St. out, maybe switch Georgetown and UConn on the 2/3 seed line, probably drop down Georgia and Utah St., take out Penn St., maybe change around the seeding of a few SEC teams (boost FL up from a 7, move down KY a bit from a 4) and probably add in one or two of your bubble teams from the Big XII. How does that sound?

Well, Harvard's portfolio isn't a bad one--of its four losses 3 look like they will be to teams with a very good chance to make the NCAA's (@Connecticut, @Princeton, @George Mason), with the other a respectable loss @Michigan. They don't have any bad losses, in other words. With a home win against Colorado and a win @Boston College they have a better OOC record than teams like Alabama or Utah St. If they win the rest of their games (including the home rematch against Princeton), they'd at least have to be in the mix in a craptastical year as this on the bubble. You have a fair point there.

problem with Harvard is that to get an atlarge they need to winout and beat princeton. If they beat Princeton they will either get the autobid or have a 1-game playoff for the autobid. Losing that game might very well pop their bubble

I still think Harvard is better off than Princeton as far as an at-large goes *shudders* simply because it has a better portfolio, but winning out would possibly make it unnecessary to get an at-large spot.

Bracketology 101 has been featured in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Wall Street Journal and on ESPN Radio affiliates across the country. The site is designed to serve as a more reliable, more accurate alternative to the Bracketology selections of other major sports websites.
Rather than predict teams based on the season ending today, or make wild predictions of the future, Bracketology 101 uses a unique "projection-prediction" method of selecting teams, giving fans a much more realistic idea of where their favorite teams stand in the eyes of the selection committee.
While other bracketologists favor conferences or teams or rely entirely on RPI rankings in making their picks, we factor in a team's resume as a whole - big wins, bad losses, in and out-of-conference wins, upcoming schedules, conference tournament sites, and each team's overall strengths and weaknesses compared to other teams on the bubble. Our "Field of 68" is updated every Monday throughout the season, with daily updates coming during Championship Week.

Join The B101 Team!

Do you want to advertise on Bracketology 101 during March Madness? Do you want to sponsor one of our upcoming daily brackets? E-mail us at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com for ad rates and details.

Follow B101 On Twitter

Bracketology 101 is now on Twitter! To follow B101 on Twitter, just click on the Twitter logo above.

How B101 Stacks Up

The numbers speak for themselves: Over the last five years, Bracketology 101 is the most accurate bracketology site on the Internet. We produced the best bracket in 2006, the second best in 2007 and 2008, and the fifth best in 2009. We are the only bracketologists to produce a Top 5 bracket four of the last five years. No other bracketologist has placed in the Top 5 more than twice. For a complete breakdown of our bracket stats from the last four years, click on the “We’re #1!” logo above.

The 40-60 Club

On top of correctly predicting 64 of the 65 tournament teams in 2008, Bracketology 101 also became the first bracketology site to ever seed 40 teams exactly and 60 teams within one seed line of their actual seed. Through 2010, we are the only bracketology site to earn this distinction.