THE 1994 CAMPAIGN: THE VOTERS; POLL FINDS CUOMO HAS EDGED AHEAD OF PATAKI IN RACE

With a combination of patient strategy and unforeseen events, Gov. Mario M. Cuomo has edged ahead of State Senator George E. Pataki as New York's gubernatorial race enters its final week, according to a New York Times/WCBS-TV News Poll.

The new poll, which was conducted from Wednesday through Saturday, shows that Mr. Cuomo's lead -- between 6 and 10 percentage points, depending on how it is measured -- has little to do with any new-found affection by New Yorkers for the 12-year incumbent. Instead, Mr. Pataki, the Republican nominee, has fallen behind because of the impact of B. Thomas Golisano's third-party candidacy and because Mr. Cuomo's campaign strategy of attack has convinced some voters that Mr. Pataki is an unacceptable alternative to the Governor.

Despite the movement in Mr. Cuomo's favor, the race remains a tight one in which any number of variables could influence its outcome. Chief among them is whether Mr. Pataki can persuade Golisano supporters that they are wasting their votes, whether he can use Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani's endorsement of Mr. Cuomo to galvanize upstate supporters who view New York City with suspicion and whether Mr. Cuomo can generate the large voter turnout he needs in New York City, particularly in minority neighborhoods.

The poll's most striking finding is that four-fifths of those surveyed said they still do not know enough about Mr. Pataki to judge whether he would make a good governor and that the voters who have an opinion of him view him far more negatively than they did a month ago. The poll suggests that Mr. Cuomo's strategy to define Mr. Pataki unfavorably is working, largely because Mr. Pataki's difficulty in cultivating his own persona has left opportunities for Mr. Cuomo to sow seeds of doubt.

The poll shows that increasing numbers of voters are disturbed by Mr. Pataki's ties to United States Senator Alfonse M. D'Amato and that two-thirds say they believe Mr. Pataki's pledge to slash personal income tax rates by 25 percent is a promise he cannot keep. Both issues have been highlighted in Cuomo advertisements.

"Pataki is not speaking for himself or even his own party as much as he is speaking for Al D'Amato," said Paul H. Krafin, a 47-year-old actor and political independent from Rockland County, who was re-interviewed after the poll was completed and said he would vote for Mr. Cuomo despite what he considered a mediocre record. "There's nothing compelling or charismatic or new, and his promise of taking some incredible tax load off of New York State is ludicrous, just ludicrous."

The poll shows that Mr. Golisano, a wealthy Rochester businessman running with the Independence Fusion Party, is taking more votes from Mr. Pataki than from Mr. Cuomo, particularly in upstate areas that traditionally favor Republican candidates.

Fifty-four percent of Mr. Golisano's supporters said they would support Mr. Pataki if Mr. Golisano were not running, while only 33 percent said they would back Mr. Cuomo. In upstate New York, Mr. Pataki's share of the vote would grow to 59 percent from 42 percent if Mr. Golisano were not on the ballot, the poll found.

Mr. Golisano may make 1994 the first year that New York has elected a governor without a majority since 1954, when W. Averell Harriman won with 49.6 percent of the vote in a three-way race.

The New York Times/WCBS-TV News Poll of 1,012 registered voters shows Mr. Cuomo leading Mr. Pataki by the largest margin to date. Mr. Cuomo had trailed Mr. Pataki by a narrow margin until recent days, when polls showed him gaining on his challenger and then passing him in a week in which he received a surprise endorsement from Mr. Giuliani, a Republican.

The poll suggests that Mr. Giuliani's endorsement is a mixed blessing for the Governor, helping Mr. Cuomo slightly in New York City and hurting him slightly upstate. Seventy-six percent of those questioned said Mr. Giuliani's endorsement would not influence their decisions, although polling experts say respondents tend to downplay the impact of major endorsements.

Among all registered voters, Mr. Cuomo leads Mr. Pataki in the poll by a 44 percent to 34 percent margin, with Mr. Golisano receiving 7 percent and Robert T. Walsh, the Right to Life Party nominee, receiving 3 percent. Ten percent said they were undecided.

Mr. Cuomo trails Mr. Pataki by 42 percent to 21 percent in upstate New York, but leads him by 65 percent to 21 percent in New York City and by 48 percent to 36 percent in the New York City suburbs. In a previous New York Times/WCBS-TV News Poll, which was taken from Sept. 29 to Oct. 2, Mr. Pataki led Mr. Cuomo in the suburbs by 47 percent to 36 percent. The previous poll showed Mr. Pataki leading Mr. Cuomo statewide by 44 percent to 41 percent.

Mr. Cuomo's lead in the current poll contracts when the survey is restricted to those who say they will definitely vote on Nov. 8 and when it includes those who said they were leaning toward a candidate. Measured that way, Mr. Cuomo receives 46 percent, with Mr. Pataki getting 40 percent and Mr. Golisano 7 percent.

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The poll's margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. That means Mr. Cuomo's true support among all registered voters could be as high as 47 percent and as low as 41 percent and that Mr. Pataki's support could be as high as 37 percent and as low as 31 percent.

The campaign provides little time to change the perception of Mr. Pataki. The poll showed that 33 percent of those questioned now view Mr. Pataki unfavorably, up from 19 percent a month ago. Eighteen percent viewed him favorably, the same as last month. Mr. Cuomo's favorable rating increased from 29 percent to 38 percent, while his unfavorable rating remained at 39 percent.

The number of Cuomo voters who said they will vote for the Governor because they dislike Mr. Pataki grew to 17 percent, up from 8 percent last month. Only 19 percent of Mr. Pataki's supporters said they strongly favor him, while 46 percent said they simply dislike his opponents.

The proportion of voters who believe Mr. Pataki does not have strong qualities of leadership grew from 19 percent last month to 30 percent; the proportion who say they believe their taxes will go up if he is elected grew from 28 percent to 38 percent; the proportion who believe he does not have the honesty and integrity to be Governor grew from 19 percent to 30 percent; the proportion who believe he does not have the experience to be Governor grew from 29 percent to 40 percent.

And the number of people who believe Senator D'Amato is very closely involved in the Pataki campaign increased from 28 percent to 45 percent. Thirty-nine percent said they would be less likely to vote for Mr. Pataki if they thought Mr. D'Amato would have a lot of influence on him.

In other statewide races, the poll shows that H. Carl McCall, the Democratic candidate, and Herbert London, the Republican, remain locked in a very tight race for state comptroller, with each supported by 35 percent of the registered voters surveyed. Twenty-six percent of those questioned said they were undecided.

Karen S. Burstein, the Democratic candidate for state attorney general, holds a lead of 47 percent to 31 percent over Dennis C. Vacco, the Republican, among all registered voters. Nineteen percent are undecided.

Only a quarter of those questioned knew that Ms. Burstein is a lesbian, although several Republican leaders have made an issue of her sexual orientation. And 84 percent said it was not appropriate to discuss a candidate's sexual orientation as part of a campaign.

Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan was holding a comfortable lead of 57 percent to 27 percent over his Republican opponent, Bernadette Castro. HOW THE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED

The latest New York Times/ WCBS-TV News Poll is based on telephone interviews conducted Wednesday through Saturday with 1,411 adults throughout New York State. Of these, 1,012 said they were registered to vote.

The random sample of telephone numbers was provided by Survey Sampling of Fairfield, Conn.

Within each household one adult was chosen at random to be the respondent. The results have been weighted to account for household size and number of telephone lines, as well as for variations relating to region, race, sex, age and education.

Results about respondents' intended votes have also been weighted to reflect the statewide distribution of ballots in recent elections from New York City (31 percent), its suburbs (24 percent), and the rest of the state (45 percent).

According to statistical theory, in 19 out of 20 cases the results based on such samples will differ by no more than 3 percentage points in either direction from a survey of all registered voters in New York State.

Correction:

An article yesterday about a New York Times/WCBS-TV News poll that showed Gov. Mario M. Cuomo edging ahead of State Senator George E. Pataki in the New York State campaign for governor misstated the support that the poll showed Mr. Cuomo receiving upstate. It was 27 percent, not 21.

A front-page article last Monday about Gov. Mario M. Cuomo's lead in a New York Times/WCBS-TV News poll referred incorrectly to the last time a New York governor was elected without a majority. It was the 1966 election, when Gov. Nelson A. Rockefeller got 44.6 percent of the vote against five opponents.

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A version of this article appears in print on October 31, 1994, on Page A00001 of the National edition with the headline: THE 1994 CAMPAIGN: THE VOTERS; POLL FINDS CUOMO HAS EDGED AHEAD OF PATAKI IN RACE. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe