“Throughout history, it has been the inaction of those who could have acted; the indifference of those who should have known better; the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most; that has made it possible for evil to triumph.”
Haile Selassie

Friday, February 6, 2015

Review of Indianapolis Council Map Reveals Numerous Opportunities for Democrats to Obtain a Majority

Today marked the final day to file for municipal races including Indianapolis City-County Council. With the elimination of the four at-large districts by the Indiana General Assembly, 25 districts are up for grabs. The map drawn by Republican political operative David Brooks and passed during by the lame duck GOP majority after the 2011 elections, was projected (ussing 2010 data) to have 15 Republican districts and 10 Democratic districts. At that time, the four at-large districts had not yet been eliminated. So Brooks drew the districts to retain a Republican majority even with the expected election of four at-large Democrats.

The strategy may well backfire. In order to create 15 Republican districts out of 25, Brooks had to cut the GOP majorities in those districts terribly close. As a result, the baselines in two of the 15 districts that were Republican have now switched to Democratic majority. So the 15-10 split is now 13-12. Plus, the Democrats have numerous targets to pick up that final seat.

Below is a table of the top 10 closest races in the 2015 elections and which incumbent currently resides in the district:

Rating

Dist.

Incumbent

2014 GOP Baseline

2012

GOP Baseline

2010
GOP Baseline

1

2

Open

49.78%

48.35%

51.98%

2

21

Mascari (D)

50.75%

42.48%

50.43%

3

16

Miller (R)

49.13%

41.2%

51.55%

4

6

McHenry (R)

51.55%

43.37%

52.38%

5

19

Hunter (R)

52.5%

43.61%

52.09%

6

3

Scales (R)

53.95%

50.38%

52.38%

7

22

Lutz (R)

54.78%

44.75%

55.69%

8

15

Pfisterer (R)

55.02%

45.3%

55.85%

9

22

Open (formerly Cain (R))

55.08%

44.75%

55.69%

10

4

McQuillen (R)

57.01%

51.47%

57.37%

The most relevant baseline is the 2014 one. That is closest in terms of time and most similiar to the low turnout one would expect in a municipal election. Obviously if there is unusually high turnout, that would be a problem as reflected in the 2012 presidential election year baseline. Republican numbers plummeted in every one of the 10 closest districts.

Finally, District 2 contains much of the old District 3, a district originally by Republican Ryan Vaughn who was succeeded by Will Gooden when Vaughn became chief of staff to the Mayor Greg Ballard. That looks like a tough district for Republicans to hold onto, especially facing Kip Tew who has the contacts to raise a substantial amount of money.. While District 21 appears like a possible Republican pickup, the only one of the 10 closest races, in fact that is still one of the 15 districts that was originally drawn to have a Republican majority.

The Republicans could win a majority of council seats, but that would appear to be a long shot.

5 comments:

Anonymous
said...

David Brooks, husband and "program manager" of his wife Susan Brooks' 2013 Indiana Primary victory over veteran, experienced Republicans already in the 5th Congressional race, royally screwed over the Marion County GOP with his new voting district map- so much of the County now more easily falls to the Democrat Party ('demographics aside')... but by God David got Susie the Primary win and with that the assured election to the 5th Congressional District.

For kicking so many loyal Republicans to the curb through a map intentionally drawn to the Brooks' advantage, David Brooks was handed a check by his very close political accomplice, Ryan Vaughn... who will surely be run as pawn in some future election. Make no mistake about it, DB is still one of the men behind the curtain moving the levers. His successor in the Township is a pawn just as is Kyle Walker.

Anon 1130, as much as I'd like to blame David Brooks, the Congressional districts were drawn by the state legislature. His reprincting and council district work can't change the congressional districts set by the state legislature.

You are correct and I was indelicate in my comments; I conflated the two. Thank you for the correction.

We will never know if David Brooks had any behind the scenes input with the Legislature and with his crony pals regarding the Congressional Districts. Brian Bosma has rarely been known for being quick-witted or quick-actiong about politician self-aggrandizement (recall Mr. Turner using his influence and votes on his health care facilities connection).

When it comes to politics and Mr. David Brooks there is quite usually more than what appears at the surface.- Anon 11:30

About Me

I have been an attorney since the Fall of 1987. I have worked in every branch of government, including a stint as a Deputy Attorney General, a clerk for a judge on the Indiana Court of Appeals, and I have worked three sessions at the Indiana State Senate.
During my time as a lawyer, I have worked not only in various government positions, but also in private practice as a trial attorney handing an assortment of mostly civil cases.
I have also been politically active and run this blog in an effort to add my voice to those calling for reform.