I don't get it, I have EX Luck on the Quartz gacha, yet here I've done over 200 pulls and NOT A SINGLE TRICK OR TREAT CAAAAAAARD!!!!!!! Screw you FP Gacha-_-

Hey, JP FGO veteran here. I've played this event many times now, including now on EN, and can say Trick or Treat is only in the shop or the 10 or 20 AP free quests as a rare drop. It can also drop on a guerrilla or party quest.

Also, saw your post above and you don't need Trick or Treat at all to get cupcakes. Just farm candles and bats on 30 and 40 AP free quest, and then covert the leftovers into cupcakes.

Maid in Halloween can drop on the 40 AP free quest (also in guerrilla quests) and Halloween Princess on the 30 AP free quest (also in party quests).

You can only get pumpkin lanterns as drops from the 40 AP free quest and guerrilla quests if you are lucky. Always use as many Little Devil CEs as you have when doing those quests to maximize pumpkins.

2 weeks seems like enough time to clean out the shop. I'm not really in much of hurry since I'm pretty sure I won't be able to ascend my Vlad, Waver, or Anne/Mary until we get another event that gives out damn Chaos Claws and Gears!

I'm struggling to come up with a good way to farm for cupcakes I have 128 AP, yet not sure what I should farm to get all the materials. Don't need any of the pieces.

Clear the shop of bats first. It is really easy to do once you have 4 Halloween Princess CEs from the shop (I already did it yesterday). Then convert extra bats into cupcakes (you get 5 cupcakes for every bat you trade in). Don't farm cupcakes directly, it is very inefficient both AP and resource wise.

Stick to the 40 AP free quest as it gives out the most bats and candles, on average, per AP used. It also is the only place to get pumpkin drops outside the non repeatable guerrilla quests. Always use a support that has the Little Halloween Devil CE when doing either of those two quests so you get the max number of pumpkins you can when they do finally fall there.

Also, don't convert pumpkins into cupcakes until you have purchased all the items from the shop you want with them first. You only get 60 guaranteed pumpkins from guerrilla quests as rewards over the course of the event and it takes 170 to clear the items in the shop that require pumpkins. Which means you need 110 from drops, though you can cut that down some if you forgo the monuments (40 pumpkins) and pieces (20 pumpkins). Without those you need 50 from drops, which is more manageable.