Where It's At: Offensive Recruiting

The week-to-week minutiae of recruiting can sometimes obscure the larger picture.From time to time this here blog likes to provide a 1,000 foot view so people can have context going forward. Details below are designed to be sparse.

Numbers

Michigan is about halfway to a full recruiting class, and will probably sign somewhere between 22 and 25. The details:

Eleven players see their eligibility expire.

Michigan entered the year with three unused slots.

Transfers from Wermers, Threet, and Clemons minus the transfer-type action of Kelvin Grady brings Michigan up to 16 slots.

There are two players on the team—David Cone and Bryan Wright—highly unlikely to get a fifth year.

Dann O'Neill's departure is not yet official but is highly likely.

So without further attrition Michigan has about 19 slots—depending on the statuses of Sheridan, Morales, and the younger Grady—to provide, but there will be further attrition. There always is.

Quarterback

Needs: Almost as severe as they were last year. Michigan has two realistic scholarship options and would like at least two this year with possibly a third guy who will "get a shot" before getting moved to somewhere else.

Commitments: MI QB Devin Gardner (right), Michigan's top target and a guy who's around the Scout top 50 and Lemming top 10, has hopped aboard.

Realistic Future Options: There's not much green left on the recruiting board here: just SC QB Cornelius Jones, LA QB Munchie Legaux, and FL QB Stephen Morris. Morris doesn't have an offer, and Legaux has gone from declaring Michigan a provisional leader to only mentioning M intermittently—that smilin' green guy is probably outdated. So you've got Jones, which I guess would be okay.

Level of PANIC: 1/5. Gardner was clearly the #1 priority of the coaching staff and is in the boat; the lack of attractive second options is a minor concern.

Tailback

Needs: They took three last year but lose three this offseason and had two transfers. In 2010 they'll have a junior Mike Shaw and four underclassmen (Smith, Toussaint, Jones, and Cox). That's is pretty light for a team that would like to run the ball lots, especially since Jones might be pirated away by the receiving corps and Toussaint remains a question-mark to qualify.

Commitments: Michigan's picked up two generic three-star sorts from Texas in Tony Drake and Stephen Hopkins, with Drake a zippy scatback sort and Hopkins a sort of Brandon Minor 2.0.

Realistic Future Options: Tate Forcier is still exhorting Michigan fans to keep hope for the pendulum that is CA RB Brennan Clay alive—he committed to Oklahoma over the weekend—but even if he's still in play he's declared Oklahoma a strong leader and will be difficult to pry away.

That leaves MI RB Austin White as Michigan's top remaining target, surprisingly. White has two brothers at State but the vibe on him has been strongly Michigan for the last month or two. While White's not the universal blue-chip Clay is he does have an LSU offer and a couple of four-star rankings.

There are also a dozen other kids with offers out there, with the top names to watch FL RB Cassius McDowell, a teammate of Michigan's Deerfield Beach duo on both the football team and the Florida state championship 4x100m, and CA RB Dietrich Riley, a hotly-pursued athlete who could play on either side of the ball.

Level of PANIC: 2/5. If Rodriguez gets a pass anywhere for recruiting random guys it's running backs, but Michigan's persistent inability to land a blue-chip guy despite Rodriguez's pedigree is slightly annoying. White's sort of close to that level, though, and if they bring him in that's a solid class.

Wide Receiver

Needs: Whatever they were they've been met.

Commitments: Michigan picked up early-early commits from FL WR Ricardo Miller and MI WR Jeremy Jackson, then followed that up with Ohioans Jerald Robinson and DJ Williamson, and the entire state of North Dakota.

Miller is a four-star to everyone but the other guys are in the generic three-star range, with Robinson the closest to four-star status. Jackson did claim offers from Texas and Florida, FWIW, and Williamson just won the state championship in the 100 meter dash.

Realistic Future Options: Unsurprisingly, there aren't many. IL WR Kyle Prater showed at the BBQ and a recent combine event that Gardner also attended; the two have hit it off and Prater's had some recent positive mentions of M. He's also declared a top three of USC, Oklahoma, and Illinois, though, so keep your hopes in check.

Other than that the only guy reporting an offer who seems interested is PA WR Andrew Carswell, who may or may not be able to commit if he so desires.

Level of PANIC: 2/5. I'd rather Michigan had picked up some higher-rated kids with better offers. IIRC, neither Robinson or Williamson had any other offers period, let alone something comparable to the Michigan offer, and neither is getting the sort of guru accolades that might offset that. Williamson is something of a mystery man, though: Rivals just got his film.

Slot Receiver

Needs: I have no idea, really. Is Teric Jones a slot receiver? What about Tony Drake? Is Kelvin Grady a realistic option? Will Jeremy Gallon qualify? Does Je'Ron Stokes end up playing inside? If the answers are all "yes," then the need here is minimal. If they're all "no," the need here is considerable.

Commitments: LA WR Drew Dileocommitted to Michigan over an array of schools that are really good at school a few weeks ago.

Realistic Future Options: Again, it's not a surprise that there aren't a whole lot of options on the board here. FL WR OJ Ross has an offer and has been very impressive this spring at a variety of combines and his high school's spring game; he's about the only guy on the radar here.

Level of PANIC: 3/5. Dileo seems like one of those guys you wait on. Just my e-pinion.

Tight End

Needs: Rodriguez never used tight ends at West Virginia unless it was Owen Schmitt lining up somewhere funny, but has apparently cottoned onto the idea at Michigan once he talked with good friend Bob Stoops and got a view of Kevin Koger's talents, so they're recruiting a few guys.

Commitments: None.

Realistic Future Options: Cincinnati commitment Alex Smith took a visit for the BBQ and now features in articles where he talks about a variety of trips he'll take. That commit is soft, then. He's the only guy on the board.

Level of PANIC: 0/5. If they find a guy they like here, fine. If they don't, fine.

Offensive Line

Needs: Suddenly a little more needy with the departures of Kurt Wermers and (again, very probably) Dann O'Neill. Michigan is now recruiting to a class of four redshirt freshmen backed by a class of three true freshmen and should be taking another three or four players.

Realistic Future Options: There is, of course, MN OL Seantrel Henderson, the nation's top recruit and a guy Michigan is in a tentative top two for along with Minnesota. He's not going to decide until February, though, so any lead here is tenuous. Much more likely to hew to his recent proclamations of a Michigan lead is FL OL Torrian Wilson, who's still got Michigan on top and would like to decide within a month.

Besides those two Michigan is in on a couple of Ohioans, Skyler Schofner and Andrew Donnall, plus some other guys. They'll probably have to find another half-dozen guys to offer to get up to four.

Level of PANIC: 1/5. Though the recruiting board has dwindled a bit, offensive line is a spot at which you get a lot of late-developing talents and the recruiting ratings aren't that accurate anyway. Pace is a good pickup to start.

The Takeaway

Yeah, Michigan has expended a lot of scholarship slots on guys you'd like to see them wait on as Plan B type recruits to be reeled in after you are told to talk to the hand by big-time guys. By the end of the year only Gardner, Miller, and maybe one other committed player (Pace or Robinson, probably) are likely to pick up four stars, which is well below average.

The counter-argument to this basically goes "Pat White and Steve Slaton," and I hear you, but even Rodriguez's first full class at Michigan—which was loaded with four-star recruits—puts the lie to the idea it's not preferable to lock down guys who many people think will be good players instead of just you. At the halfway point it's looking like this will be class that ranks lower than normal.

That's not too alarming. Teams that have ugly years just about always experience a significant dropoff the year after, and Michigan is going through its own version. This is more likely to be a result of 3-9 than anything else, and 3-9 isn't an event that will repeat, knock on wood.

Per usual, nice recap Brian. Looking year-over-year, I am slightly concerned about the diminishing returns of RR's recruiting efforts. While I understand the whole Pat White side of the argument, the lack of 4* and 5* recruits is concerning. I understand that 3-9 isn't necessarily a huge turn on for recruits, but shouldn't the fact that we are the University of Michigan carry some weight? I mean, ND has been terrible lately, yet they still bring in top classes with some pretty highly rated 5* guys. What gives?

...and today's date is June 8, 2009. National Signing Day is in February 2010.

Notre Dame gets its pick of kids from Catholic schools. We've got a new coach, so new relationships in new areas. Also: a lot of the highly rated kids are committing to schools which, if you look closely, did rather well last year and in 2007. There aren't a lot of four star kids committing to Iowa State right now.

If Michigan goes 8-4 in the regular season this year, you will see kids like Gholston, Prater, Henderson and Clay give Michigan more than a sideways look. We're already in their top 10!!!

I think we'd all be happy if we locked up those four, kept what we've got, and filled in the rest with 3 star players. Wouldn't we?

Now, remember that highly regarded kids will pop up later this summer and in the fall (remember Roh, LaLota, Gibbons last year, and Emilien fell into our lap). Remember Quentin Washington "dropped" us last August.

If Michigan has a good record, the last 10 kids in this class will be of the four star variety.

but I wonder if there are potential recruits who imagine that gravelly voice barking at them as they puke their guts out on Barwis Beach, and say "um, no thanks." Especially linemen.

Since we're only one year in, it's as yet unproven that there is in fact a Barwis Effect (the concept, not the MGoBlog poster), but I'm optimistic that it's real, and that proper identification of potential talent—even if it lacks the desired four and five stars—combined with the S&C program will yield the results we want. However, eventually you need top-rated players to get to the top echelon of the BCS world. If we get back to being truly competitive, it will happen. This year is really critical, though. Another losing season and the effects recruiting-wise will linger longer than last season's disaster. One losing season can easily be seen as a flukey outlier, but two in a row is a completely different thing.

Don you had a nice post there.. that is pretty accurate. I think there are some guys turned off by Barwis's barking. To them I say the same thing RR says...Adios Pussy. RR is not just paying lip service to the you have to "love football" mantra. I'm sure this is the pitch to recruits. This is going to be the hardest thing you have ever done in your life, but if you pass you will be in the best shape you can possibly be in and you will be the best player you can possibly be and some other bullshit about great academics. Do you accept the challenge??

RR wants Navy Seals. I'm not sure the Navy Seals are the biggest and the fastest, but they are the toughest mentally and physically. It's not for everyone though.

I have nothing to back that up, I was agreeing with Don's assumption and running my theory up the pole. It would go to reason that there are some pampered 4 and 5 star recruits that look at Barwis and say "that dude is too over the top for me." I think RR usues him as a weeding out tool. Anyone that can't get with Barwis's message isn't going to make it thru Michigan.

This thread is getting off tangent. Let me clarify my stance.
1. I love Barwis, think he helps recruiting.
2. Yes most top programs have tough S&C programs similar to ours.
3. Most of the top schools do simlar things, but does each school give off a slighlty different vibe and personality that somewhat effects a recruits thinking..probably.
4. Could some kid come in and like a more independent approach than Michigan(like Mich used to be)and be slighlty turned off. Maybe.

I'm not quoting "inside sources" or alleging that I know someone in the athletic department or that my BIL is an assistant coach at another school or that I overheard Brennan Clay in the men's room at Skeeps during a secret recruiting visit.

My phrase was, "but I wonder if there are..." I'm simply throwing the question out there for discussion, you know, like people do on these here blog things. Do you dismiss the possibility that some guys might not find Barwis to their liking? And don't mistake my contemplating the question as an indication I'm not a Barwis supporter.

I don't know. I would call those statements "mild speculation" or even "possible outcomes" not "rampant speculation." All of those comments have solid reasoning behind them. Saying "Barwis' barking turns off recruits" has no evidence to back it up. Saying that our record this fall will influence our recruiting is pretty likely, actually.

can call them whatever you want considering jg2112 seems to have understood the overall point.

In response to your post though, couldn't a recruit visiting Michigan and being turned off by Barwis just as easily be called "mild speculation", or even a "possible outcome"? You might even say that there is "solid reasoning" behind it, considering the Dann O'Neill situation.

My point was that ALL of those points are speculative. If you want to argue "degrees of speculation", go ahead.

I think there is a huge difference between making a claim backed up by absolutely nothing, and making a claim that, while may be speculative, is also a likely and probably conclusion. From what I've heard, Dann O'Nieill didn't like to work hard. That's not a Barwis vs. another SC coach, that's working vs. playing video games.

I, along with many others, don't like people making claims when there has been no evidence to suggest that conclusion.

Personally, I've never once heard of a recruit dismissing us as a school because they were intimidated by Barwis. Saying it's possible or that you "wonder" what potential recruits think is not at all evidence.

However, many recruits have chosen or turned down a school because of performance. This is common place. Same with a positive trend. How many times have you heard a recruit say they they committed to a school or showed interest because a program was "on the up and up?" Winning 5 more games than the previous year is certainly indicative of that.

[The counter-argument to this basically goes "Pat White and Steve Slaton," and I hear you, but even Rodriguez's first full class at Michigan—which was loaded with four-star recruits—]

" puts the lie to the idea it's not preferable to lock down guys who many people think will be good players instead of just you."

I have read that sentence many times over and still don't have a clue what you are trying to convey Brian. Short sentences man, once you go past the second hyphen, you really got to pay attention to that period key crying to be pressed :-)

Good summary of the recruiting. I was out for a month and this really helped me catch up.

Lots of people have been excusing the relatively low ranking of the current verbal commits by saying that RR would rather have three-stars that fit his offense than four- or five-stars that don't. But when given the chance to get the four- or five-stars, he took it. So saying that he would rather have lowly-ranked players that fit his offense than highly-ranked players that other major programs are recruiting is a lie.

Sorry Gremlin, that's not how things work. Unless your name is Nick Saban, if a kid receives an offer from you and maintains that he wants to go to Michigan, you don't yank his offer. That's why schools are often selective about who they offer. If you could yank a kid's offer, why not offer, literally, everybody?

There are situations like the Barnes or Peace situations from last year where you either give the kid the cold shoulder or let him know you need him at a different position, but if he's OK with it, he still gets his scholarship. I've never heard of Michigan, or any other school not in a coaching transition, tell a kid, "Hey guess what, that offer we gave you? We want it back." That would ruin M's and RR's reputation for future recruits for a long time. We would be better off keeping a kid we didn't want.

Why don't you go look at a copy of an offer letter. You'll see it's conditional. Also, please take note that RR is coaching now, and not Lloyd Carr. Have you seen how many offers we have out there? Do you really think we're going to be able take every kid who commits? This is obviously a different era, and you are too slow to figure it out.

Technically, you are correct as they can pull an offer if they so choose. In practice, though, they only rescind offers to people who have not yet committed. As has been repeated ad nauseum, committed players will get Peaced.

If you want to re-read my post I'll give you a minute or two.....OK, ya done?

Notice that I never said that we "can't" yank an offer. I said that we "don't" and that we "shouldn't." If you want to rip on me for being slow, at least read the fucking post. You've shown in numerous posts on here that you don't know what you're talking about, so I'm not going to get upset.

We have more offers out than spots. True. Not all of those guys will commit. I fully endorse pulling an offer from a guy who hasn't accepted it yet (committed). RR has also told guys that they cannot commit yet, because they are waiting on responses from other recruits. Please give me example when a player (from any school, save Lane Kiffin's situation as a new coach) where a player's offer has been yanked. I'd be curious to hear about it.

seriously, they don't. just not how it works. don't know how long you've been following recruiting, but they don't yank offers. they call, write, and text less often if at all, maybe tell a kid who doesn't want to redshirt that he will, etc. they hope the kid gets the point, like with dewayne peace. but they don't actually yank offers.

Charlie Weis and Ron Zook are pretty adept recruiters, but their on-field achievements have been middling at best overall. Wake Forest's classes don't show up on the radar at all, but Jim Grobe has somehow gotten the Demon Deacons to real competitiveness in the ACC. Stoops, Brown, Carroll, Saban, and Pope Urban are guys who can recruit and coach with the best, albeit with natural recruiting bases that Rodriguez can only fantasize about. If you're not going to have recruiting classes that have as many 4- and 5-star guys as the "top" programs, then not only are you going to have to "develop" them in terms of practice coaching/S&C/etc, but you have to get that to translate to wins on game day. Lloyd was routinely pilloried for game-day strategy and tactics, sometimes fairly, sometimes not, so it will be interesting to see how RR does over the next 2-3 years in that category. Will his Michigan version of the spread be able to make up for supposed deficits in talent when playing teams like OSU? Can Gerg mold a defense mostly comprised of 3-stars and a few 4s and have it truly competitive with BCS-level bowl teams?

8 of 11 probable starters are 4 star or better...where is this d comprised of 3 stars...

I think we need a special category for guys from the muck...these guys are proving to be better than rated. Any 3 star from the sticks that can't get a proper meal, no weightlifting program and can't afford to go to combines every weekend in the deep south should be rated a 4 star for us. Auburn LSU Alabama Arkansas Ole Miss make a living off these type guys.