Melbourne property to recover by September: Moody’s Analytics

As seen in the Source link, written by realestate.com.au on 2019-10-28 14:06:00

Melbourne’s housing market is expected to reach 2017 market peak prices again by September 2020.

Melbourne house prices are tipped to be back at peak levels by September next year.

Investment analysts at Moody’s Analytics have tipped the city’s market to soar almost 15 per cent by the end of 2021.

That’s after Melbourne’s about two-year housing market correction, which will have cut 9.5 per cent from the value of a typical house by the time 2019’s figures are tallied at the end of the year, predicts the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australia Home Value Index Forecast.

A 7 per cent rise in house values next year is expected to bring them back to levels last seen at the November 2017 market peak, by September 2020.

CoreLogic records show Melbourne’s median house value peaked at $832,448.

2020 AND 2021 GROWTH: HOUSES

Inner Melbourne: 13.8 per cent

Inner east: 22.6 per cent

Inner south: 10.4 per cent

North east: 24.8 per cent

North west: 10.8 per cent

Outer east: 11.2 per cent

South east: 14.6 per cent

West: 9.1 per cent

Mornington Peninsula: 12.8 per cent

*Source: Moody’s Analytics

The city’s apartments, units and townhouses are also expected to grow more than 5 per cent in the same period, after more modest declines than houses during the correction.

Moody’s Analytics assistant director economist and report author Katrina Ell predicted a further 7.8 per cent rise in 2021 in a “fast-paced recovery”, spurred by shrinking interest rate payments, but warned regulators would block the wild double-digit growth of the last boom.

“The average homeowner’s takeaway would be that the bulk of the correction has passed,” Ms Ell said.

“But it’s not going to be a boom.

“If there’s any danger of that (double-digit growth), we will see actions to put the brakes on.”

2020 AND 2021 GROWTH: APARTMENTS

Inner Melbourne: 12.1 per cent

Inner east: 21 per cent

Inner south: 3.3 per cent

North east: 10 per cent

North west: 13.2 per cent

Outer east: 9 per cent

South east: -1 per cent

West: -5.6 per cent

Mornington Peninsula: 6.6 per cent

*Source: Moody’s Analytics

Further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia were anticipated but if these “light a fire” under the market, the nation’s prudential regulator, APRA, would likely direct banks to tighten lending again and reduce how much people could borrow, she said.

Residents in Melbourne’s inner east, from Boroondara to parts of Manningham and Whitehorse, will see the best of the growth in 2020, with a 15.8 per cent increase in house values expected.

9 Kiah St, Glen Waverley sold for $2.05 million – more than $400,000 after it was called on the market at its October 26 auction.

Glen Waverley-based Harcourts Judd White real estate director Dextor Prack said they were already well into a recovery in that part of Melbourne.

“For us here in Glen Waverley, we experienced an 18 per cent drop – and I reckon we have recovered 10 per cent already,” Mr Prack said.

A rise in homes for sale as a more positive property market emerged would likely slow the current rate of recovery, he added.

But Melbourne’s north east will be the big winner long term, leading the charge in 2021.

Municipalities including Banyule, Darebin, Nillumbik and Whittlesea are expected to share in a 15.6 per cent rise for that year.

The positive predictions come after Melbourne’s market more than cleared its biggest hurdle of 2019 last weekend, with more than 1500 homes going under the hammer in a single weekend – and 77 per cent of them selling on the day.