As rumors of discussions with Marlins swirl, the Red Sox should be asking about Josh Johnson_BINARY_941992

Wednesday

Jul 18, 2012 at 5:21 PM

On their end, the Marlins could include in a trade either Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is owed $15 million, $15.5 million and $16 million over the next three seasons but counts just $11.6 million per year for luxury-tax purposes, while Reyes

Brian MacPherson Journal Sports Writer brianmacp

According to various reports, the Miami Marlins have approached the Red Sox about a trade for Carl Crawford. The Marlins even have a senior executive in Boston for the purposes of scouting Crawford, according to a report.

On their end, the Marlins could include in a trade either Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is owed $15 million, $15.5 million and $16 million over the next three seasons but counts just $11.6 million per year for luxury-tax purposes, while Reyes is in the first year of a six-year, $106 million contract to which the Marlins signed him in December -- meaning he'll count for just over $20 million for luxury-tax purposes, almost the same as Crawford.

Reyes is hitting .264 with a .336 on-base percentage and .372 slugging percentage this season. Hes hit 18 doubles and stolen 20 bases. Ramirez is hitting just .249 with a a .326 on-base percentage and .437 slugging percentage -- similar numbers to what he compiled last season. He's hit 18 doubles and 14 home runs.

One report suggested the Marlins would include reliever Heath Bell, who has a 6.21 ERA with a career-worst 1.70 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 43 relief appearances this season. That he's 34 years old and in the first year of a three-year, $27 million contract makes him even more of a salary-dump candidate -- and even less appealing for any team acquiring him.

As often is the case in late July, the Crawford-to-Miami rumors almost certainly have little behind them. Such a blockbuster trade is extraordinarily unlikely to happen.

Both Crawford and Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine, not surprisingly, deflected all questions about the rumors.

"I hadn't really heard too much about it, but there's really nothing to say about it," he said. "I just have to get ready to play every day. When those kinds of things come up, you just shrug it off."

"I'm not surprised at anything," Valentine said. "The way stuff is made up and blown up, I'm never surprised. ... This is the world that we live in and, regretfully, you've got to survive in it. I think Carl's tough. He'll be fine."

How would Crawford feel about being traded if it were to happen?

"I don't really know how I'd feel," he said.

If the Marlins are interested in Crawford, however, there's another pitcher the Red Sox might be happy to build a trade around: Josh Johnson.

It was just two years ago Johnson had an argument to start the All-Star Game for the National League after a first half in which he compiled a 1.70 ERA. Shoulder injuries limited Johnson to nine starts a season ago, and he's seen his ERA climb to a career-worst 4.28 ERA.

Looking beyond that 4.28 ERA, however, there are some signs Johnson is close to the same pitcher he once was. His fastball velocity is down to 93 from its peak around 95 two years ago, but he pitched at or below 93 when he first broke into the major leagues. More significantly, he's dealing with a career-high BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and career-low strand rate (number of baserunners who eventually come around to score). History suggests both of those statistics tend to even out over time for pitchers.

For that reason, while Johnson has a 4.28 ERA, he has a FIP of 3.07 -- 11th-best in the major leagues. (FIP -- fielding independent pitching -- calculates an ERA-style evaluation of pitchers built around strikeouts, walks and home runs.) Johnson's FIP is better than that of Ryan Dempster (3.13), Jered Weaver (3.28) or Cole Hamels (3.29). He's been a better pitcher this season than his ERA indicates and could be expected to pitch as such in the second half.

Johnson is midway through a four-year, $39 million contract during which he'll be paid $13.75 million this year and $13.75 million next year while counting just $9.75 million against his team's payroll for luxury-tax purposes.

Unlike Bell, Johnson isn't the type of player Miami is going to be desperate to trade. But there are rumblings the 44-46 Marlins are thinking about selling off parts if they keep falling back in the wild-card hunt. If the Marlins want to add Crawford as a piece who can help them down the road, the Red Sox could do much worse than adding Johnson to their pitching staff through the 2013 season.