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AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT...

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

With less than a week until the election, political polling
is in high gear.But what if you want to
get a “sense of the electorate” rather than just the results of telephone
polling?

In Colorado, we have early voting taking place, and it tells
us how things are going.Scott Gessler,
the Colorado Secretary of State releases voter turnout figures on a daily
basis. Here
they are as of today.

What story do they tell?If you look at the participation of voters who are registered as
Democrats, Republicans and Unaffiliated, these are the voting percentages
through 10/30/2012:

R – 439,269 (38.5%)

D – 404,870 (35.5%)

U – 295,122 (26.0%)

Total: 1,139,261

We have about 2,587,835 active voters in Colorado, and
probably no more than 2,300,000 will vote in 2012.As a result, about ½ of our voters have
already cast their ballots, with another week to go before the election.

What’s an easy way to judge the way the election is
going?Simply assume that all
Republicans will vote for Mitt Romney, and all Democrats will vote for Barack
Obama.That leaves the independent voters
as the unknown.

If we take the polling done by Purple
Strategies over the period 10/23/2012 to 10/25/2012 as a guide, they
conclude “…the race is tied among independents.”We can therefore split the 26% independent
vote into 13% for Mr. Romney and 13% for president Obama.

Adding those percentages to the R and D figures sets the
overall race at 51.5% for Mitt Romney and 48.5% for Barack Obama after half the
votes have been cast in Colorado.

Maybe not earthshaking, but a pretty good indicator of what
is happening in Colorado.As each day is
reported, we can track the direction of the election, and gain confidence in
the outcome.

We can also shade the results based on additional
information.Here are my thoughts:

--This election will probably see a tendency for Democrats
to vote against their party more than Republicans.

--Independents may also swing more toward Romney than
Obama.We see anecdotal evidence of
Hollywood figures and sports figures “coming out” for Romney/Ryan more so than
Republicans switching to Obama.

I would give a total of 2.5 percentage points to the Republican
ticket because of this, so my prediction is that Romney/Ryan will take Colorado
by at least 54% to 46%.Those of you
following this blog might try a similar exercise in your own states.

Right now, Rasmussen polling suggests that an 8-point spread
is far-fetched.They predict a 2-point
spread in Colorado.

But then, which is the better indicator: actual voting or a
telephone survey?We will know in less
than a week.

In the meantime, for all you political junkies in
battleground states, if you’ve got access to voter turnout, do the R/D/U
calculation and see how it relates to polling data.It’s interesting and fun!

UPDATE 11/1/2012:Resurgent Republic has a more optimistic take on the inclinations of independent voters.

UPDATE 11/2/2012:Colorado Peak Politics has data out as of 11/1/2012. It shows about three-quarters of the Colorado electorate having voted (1,447,116 out of about 2.3 million). The breakout is R - 547,150 (37.8%), D - 509,091 (35.2%), and U - 390,875 (27.0%). Adding half the independent voters to the Republican ticket gives a 51.3% to 48.7% advantage to Republicans.

The Republican ticket still receives my 2.5% subjective advantage, based on the Benghazi coverup, the anti-Catholic HHS actions, and the objectification of women campaign strategy used by the Democratic party. Those factors weigh against Barack Obama, and make the race 53.8% to 46.2%.

That percentage difference is a minimum. In Colorado, the race will end up at least 54% / 46%.

UPDATE 11/5/2012:
The Colorado Secretary of State has the breakout the day before the election at R - 624,788 (37.0%), D - 590,417 (35.0%), and U - 474,437 (28.0%). Adding half the independents to the Republican ticket makes the Republican advantage 51% to 49%.

This is no change since last week, so I still expect at least a 54% to 46% win for Republicans in Colorado.

UPDATE 11/6/2012:
The final report from the Secretary of State has R - 675,797 (36.5%), D - 642,834 (34.7%), and U - 534,012 (28.8%). Add 14.4% independents to 36.5 % Republicans gives a 50.9% to 49.1% lead to Republicans. That continues to indicate a 54% to 46% race.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

That’s the headline from last week’s Drudge Report as captured by Sister Toldjah. The remark was NOT made about president
Obama.It was made BY the President as a
characterization of his election opponent.

Matt Drudge, employing his genius for juxtaposition, helps
us draw the proper connection.

Republicans will note the coarse language as "unbecoming of
the President."Barack Obama supporters
will give the President high marks for “telling it like it is.”

I think all of this forms the basis for a case study on
Authoritarianism.

Those who support the remark are people who admire
Authoritarianism, and they (unfortunately) make up the majority of human
beings.We are all inclined to approve
of Authoritarianism, and when we see the arrogance and moral authority that
typically accompany it, we tend to view it in a positive light.

That’s the human conundrum, and political forces raise the
stakes.The Democratic Party defends the
taunt, and the President’s followers point to the cleverness of the “dash of
snark” that is implicit in the characterization.

Now take a moment to look at the downside of the Authoritarianism
embodied in this situation and in our President.

We also take note of the “authoritarian salute” (bowing)
that president Obama tenders to authoritarian leaders.In the 21st century, this mutual
admiration is reserved for those who are at the pinnacle of Authoritarianism.

As individuals, we acknowledge authoritarians in our daily
lives with a mixture of fear and admiration.If we are caught up in an authoritarian group, we attempt to get on the “right
side” of the power spectrum.We learn to
acknowledge the authoritarian gestures that define the group and know that we ignore
the necessary “choosing of sides” at our own risk.

Keep in mind that a hallmark of Authoritarianism is that
authoritarians are never wrong.President Obama has no need to walk-back his “bullshitter” remark
because he knows he is right.If the
political ramifications attending the remark become untenable, the President will
simply revise his position and note that he has “evolved.”

People see Authoritarianism as a fact of life.America’s founders understood this, and put
in place a governing system for America that was anti-authoritarian.The last few years of the Obama
administration have shown how easy it is to mount attacks against “checks and
balances,” “separation of powers,” and “the rule of law.”It’s just what authoritarians do, and most Americans
accept it.(Defenders of the Constitution,
gird your loins!)

We still don’t know if the ‘bullshitter” characterization will cause difficulty
for president Obama’s re-election.The
last week of an election cycle is volatile, and there are crosscurrents of
influence at work. But the remark does
bring Authoritarianism into sharp relief, and that might be worthwhile.

UPDATE 11/2/2012:Peggy Noonan has an article up today in The Wall Street Journal that speaks of Authoritarianism and the presidency of Barack Obama. The best quote:
"It is one thing to think you're Lebron. It's another thing to keep missing the basket and losing games and still think you're Lebron."

If you were watching the debate, it was an emotional, gasp-inducing
exchange.The president had expressed
outrage at the pretensions of Mr. Romney, and Candy Crowley saw her opportunity.She rose to the occasion and the audience
reacted with spontaneous applause for her courage.

I’ve noted before how Ms.
Crowley is able to exhibit her anti-Republican credentials and still
comport as a professional journalist.Here’s
the takeaway from this occurrence:

1) Our culture teaches us to view Republicans as bad people.

2) The current Democratic Party theme is that Mitt Romney is
an unhinged (lying) flip-flopper.

2) Candy Crowley used her power as moderator to portray Mr.
Romney as a liar and to evoke an anti-Republican response.

On national TV, before millions of viewers, we have been
treated to a spectacle.Republicans can
try to set the record straight, but our culture will not be swayed from its “truth.”

UPDATE 10/18/2012:

Anti-Republican Culture categorizes its posts with four
possible labels.This incident has the extraordinary
distinction of receiving all four classifications.

“Republicans Under Siege” is captured when Mitt Romney finds
himself under attack not only from his debate opponent, but also from the
moderator and a majority of the audience. “So Right and Natural” is displayed in the spontaneity
of the audience applause over the incident.“The Themes” is present in the “lying Republican” characterization
advanced by this incident (and also expounded by John
Aravosis at AmericaBlog.com).“The
Ministry of Truth” is represented by the fundamental spin associated with a
mention of the phrase “acts of terror” in conjunction with a Benghazi briefing.

Friday, October 5, 2012

The Presidential Debate this Wednesday creased the fabric of
the universe.The outcome was not what
the Democratic Party expected.

We are now seeing the Democratic Party roll out a “take no
prisoners” strategy.Peggy Noonan goes out
on a limb to describe it.She points
to the treatment of Jim Lehrer:

Jim Lehrer has been
criticized as an inadequate moderator. He was old-school and a pro. He didn't
think it was about him. How quaint. He asked questions, allowed a certain
amount of leeway to both candidates, which allowed each to reveal himself, and
kept things moving. Most of the criticism seems to have come from those who
hoped Mr. Obama would emerge triumphant. Mr. Lehrer should not take it
personally. Every shot at him was actually a warning shot aimed at the next
moderator, Martha Raddatz. She's being told certain outcomes are desirable.

Ms. Noonan says the
campaign “will probably get dirty” and we see David Axelrod already working the
Romney
unhinged flip-flopper characterization.