Weld County Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer talks about the 51st State Initiative during a watch party in Fort Lupton last November. Kirkmeyer is planning to run for the 4th Congressional District seat.

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The race for the 4th Congressional District seat promises to be a memorable one right down to the finish line in November.

Three well-known Weld County politicians — Weld District Attorney Ken Buck, Weld County Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer and state Sen. Scott Renfroe of Greeley — are running for the GOP nomination in the June 24 primary along with Steve Laffey of Larimer County.

The winner will face Democrat Vic Meyers of Trinidad and unaffiliated candidate Grant Doherty of Lochbuie in November.

Buck is the front-runner so far, political experts said.

They aren’t giving Meyers or Doherty much of a chance to beat the GOP challenger.

The 4th CD seat became vacant when current U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner of Yuma shook up the state’s political landscape Feb. 26 by announcing he would run for the U.S. Senate against Democratic incumbent Mark Udall.

Buck, who was running for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate before Gardner’s decision, departed from that race and decided to run for the 4th CD seat, which encompasses Weld County, Douglas County and the Eastern Plains.

Soon after, Renfroe, Kirkmeyer and Laffey joined the race.

As for a Democrat winning the 4th CD seat, former GOP chairman and Republican consultant Dick Wadhams said it would take a formidable and popular Democrat to win the 4th District now that redistricting has made it far more Republican.

“Weld County and the Eastern Plains already had a Republican tilt, and the addition of Douglas County certainly makes the 4th District very difficult for a Democrat to win now,” he said.

According to the Secretary of State’s office, there were 406,370 active registered voters in the 4th CD (94,157 Democrats, 170,735 Republicans and 137,478 unaffiliated voters) as of March 3. Those numbers indicate that there are 76,578 more active Republican registered voters than Democrats in the district.

Buck’s race to lose

Wadhams, political analyst Floyd Ciruli of Denver, and political analyst Kyle Saunders of Colorado State University agree that Buck is currently the front-runner because of the money he raised from his Senate campaign and his name recognition. According to the 2013 year-end reports from the Federal Election Commission, Buck had $262,347 in cash on hand and Meyers had only $1,454 in cash on hand.

The next FEC figures through March 31 won’t come out until April 15 but the other GOP candidates have some catching up to do.

“I think that you would say that Buck is the front-runner,” Ciruli said. “The comments that were made on whether or not Buck would be the right fit for that district was that either a legislator or a county commissioner would have more of a feel for the local issues.”

He added, “The issues related to that district are in many ways just nitty-gritty, agriculture and water development and trying to get the infrastructure and the benefits for local business. But I think he is the frontrunner unless one of those candidates has a lot of money.”

After announcing his run for the 4th CD seat, Buck cut his staff in half from six to three, which included dropping communications director Melanie Harmon, who was a senior writer to former President George W. Bush. Campaign manager Tim Griesmer is handling communications for Buck.

“We’re going to do our best to save our money and use it at the right time,” Buck said.

Buck, who lost in a close Senate race to Michael Bennet in 2010, said he wasn’t ready to announce any endorsements.

“We had a very small staff to begin with for a statewide campaign. When you go from seven congressional districts down to one, some people have to put on different hats or several more hats,” said Walt Klein, a campaign consultant for Buck. “We downsized the overall staff.”

Buck said he won’t talk about his opponents.

“I don’t believe in saying anything negative about people, so I’m staying away from that,” Buck said. “Anytime I have opponents, I’m going to take it seriously and work very hard.”

NO EASY PATH

Saunders originally thought the path to the November election was clear cut for Buck.

“This was supposed to be a cleaned-out field,” Saunders said of the 4th CD seat. “The allegation was that if this was a back-room deal, the party was going to clear the way for Buck to have a relatively easy race, which tells me that all those allegations of there being a back-room deal weren’t necessarily the case.”

He added, “It was just the fact that Gardner was probably a better candidate for a statewide election. Buck had kind of put himself in a position in the last election where with all the winds blowing the way they were in 2010, the Republican probably should have won here if you look at the rest of the trends across the U.S.

“Many, including myself, came to the conclusion that Buck just wasn’t quite the right candidate for a statewide election, especially after all of his gaffes and saying the things that he did.”

That being said, Saunders said that the things Buck stands for and being labeled as a conservative Republican will probably work well in the 4th CD because it’s a very Republican district.

Saunders said the chance of Meyers winning the 4th CD seat in November is about as high as a Republican winning the heavily Democrat dominated 1st CD against Diana DeGette, where the Democrats outnumber the Republicans by more than 108,000 active registered voters.

“Buck’s not going to be perceived as being out of touch, and I think with his name recognition and his ability to raise money, he’s probably still very much the favorite in the race,” Saunders said. “It’s going to be how much money can Buck raise compared to Renfroe, compared to Kirkmeyer.”

He said Ken Buck is definitely the most visible.

“Ken Buck has the most money in the bank. It’s a situation where name recognition in this race will probably matter quite a bit, and there’s no doubt that Ken Buck has the name recognition.”

He concluded, “If you’re handicapping the race today, Buck’s your favorite. That being said, are these other folks going to be able to strike a chord with the constituency better? We don’t know yet.”

NAME RECOGNITION

Weld County Commissioner Sean Conway, who thought long and hard about entering the 4th CD race as a GOP candidate before deciding not to run, said Thursday he is endorsing Kirkmeyer.

Conway said name recognition may not work in Buck’s favor.

“Here’s the deal: That name ID comes with a positive as well as a negative,” Conway said. “Just because you have high name ID doesn’t mean that it’s favorable name ID. Unfortunately for Ken, I think that a lot of that negative name ID is associated with his 2010 Senate run and some of the unfortunate things that were said in that race and perceptions that were left in voters’ minds.”

He added, “I would say if you handicap the race right now that clearly Ken Buck is the frontrunner, but I’ve been in politics a long time and I would much rather be where Commissioner Kirkmeyer is right now in terms of where she is positioned in the race than Mr. Buck or Mr. Renfroe.”

Wadhams said Buck being elected twice as Weld DA and his Senate campaigns have given him a lot of exposure throughout the district.

“I would have to think that Ken would be the frontrunner now,” Wadhams said. “Barbara Kirkmeyer is a very good candidate. I could see her doing well in the Douglas County suburbs appealing to those voters. As a county commissioner, she probably has a network of commissioners up and down the plains that she’s worked with in the past.”

He added, “I would anticipate that Sen. Renfroe will run at Ken Buck from the right and try to be the most conservative candidate in the race, which he probably is. He’s got to peel off a lot of Ken Buck support. You’ve got three pretty high profile candidates in the race now, particularly Buck. His name is the only one that’s appeared on the ballot in every county in the district.”

Conway said Buck not being in favor of the 51st state initiative last November could hurt him.

“I want to see when Mr. Buck heads out to the eastern plains of Colorado that voted for the 51st state, many of those who are going to be Republican primary voters, and have him explain why he opposed that effort when they overwhelmingly voted for it in those counties,” Conway said. “I think that is going to be problematic for him in terms of dealing with the eastern plains. I think commissioner Kirkmeyer is well-known out there.”

BIG-NAME ENDORSEMENTS

Kirkmeyer has captured endorsements from notable politicians such as former Colorado Gov. Bill Owens, whom she worked for in the 1990s when she was employed at the Department of Local Affairs, Greeley Mayor Tom Norton, former state Rep. B.J. Nikkel of Loveland, former state board of education member Clair Orr and Conway.

She said Buck was out there working the delegates during his recent Senate run.

“I think he does have some advantage with that, but as we’re getting into this I’m finding I have a lot of support out there,” Kirkmeyer said. “My name recognition is pretty good on the eastern plains as well, one because of the 51st state initiative. Previous to that, I was at the Department of Local Affairs and I met and worked with a lot of folks in all those other counties and municipalities out on the plains and all the way down into Baca and Prowers County working on projects that were of importance to them. I wouldn’t underestimate the name recognition that maybe I have out there.”

Renfroe said he’s received endorsements from state Rep. Jerry Sonnenberg of Sterling, state Sen. Ted Harvey of Douglas County and state Rep. Chris Holbert of Douglas County.

“When you talk about the others in the race, it is an interesting race the way this district’s been redrawn with a third Weld County, a third Douglas County and a third eastern plains,” Renfroe said. “There is the potential that if others get in down south that maybe we split the vote up here. It’s going to be a challenge to get across the district and talk to people in the entire district, but that’s what I plan to do is get out and go to every part of the district and just meet with people.”