Tuesday, October 5, 2010

In 2008, I made a statement I was vilified for by Conservatives and Republicans. I stated that the idea of a Barack Obama presidency was horrible but not as horrible as the idea of a John McCain presidency. My reasoning was simple. With either man as President of the United States, the socialist ascendancy of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid would continue to destroy the country- as it has since January of 2007. In an article quoted by All-American Blogger, I stated that a McCain Presidency would not move the Conservative message forward while an Obama Presidency would do just that.

Here I am today saying "see, I told ya so"

The victory of Democrats in 2006 and 2008 was manufactured by their own malevolence. It was Democrats and liberals who sabotaged the Iraq war, destroyed the economy and brought about the era of Wall Street bailouts and exploding deficits. The Democrats were masterful at creating these crises and shifting all the blame for them to George W Bush. George W. Bush and the Republicans had the deficit down to $165 Billion,unemployment down to 4.4%, gasoline down to $2.19 a gallon and the Dow up to 14,500. America looks wistfully at such numbers today.

In Bush's second term, his failure was not that he was too conservative, it was that he was not conservative enough. His undoing was not his unwillingness to reach across the aisle but his willingness to. Can anyone doubt that John McCain would have matched (or even accelerated) this acquiescence? John McCain was all about "compromise". McCain-Feingold, McCain-Liebermann, McCain- Kennedy. Ask yourself which party got the better of those deals?

McCain compromise with the Pelosi-Reid congress would have been- to paraphrase Ben Franklin- two wolves and a sheep decided what is for dinner. Even, on the rare occasions that McCain dared to stand up for Conservatism, could he have hoped to sway public opinion? Could he have hoped to get his agenda through such a rabidly corrupt and partisan Democratic congress? No. Americans had drunk the hope/change koolaid by the quart. large swaths of the country were ready to anoint Obama the new Messiah. Had McCain managed a miraculous upset victory, how could he have possibly escaped being the scapegoat for the soaring deficits and hemorrhaging jobs.

Conservatism was not on the ballot in 2008 but Conservatism would certainly have been the scapegoat. The only reason blaming our current ills on the Republican leadership have failed is because America could see-quite clearly- that no Republicans were in the leadership. Can't you see, It was necessary to give the Socialists total control in order that their masks be taken off and a stupid public be awakened to their true agenda

Sarah Palin put it best. "So, tell me America, how is that hopey, changey thing working out for you?"

America now knows what true Socialism now looks like. Now, we finally have our chance to get this right. 2010 has not been a two-way battle between Democratism and Republicanism. It is a 3 way battle between Democratism, Republicanism and Conservatism. Make no mistake, Conservatism is winning the day.

That is what this approaching storm is about and it is breathtaking to watch. Millions of Conservatives have risen up in one voice to purge the Liberals but outside and inside the Republican party. When John McCain said those now famous words that we don't have to be scared of an Obama presidency, Conservatives saw more evidence of a GOP out of touch and that before we can take our country back, we have to take our party back.

This storm represents a full-fledged revolt by Conservatives and the last chance for the GOP to right the ship. If the new Republican majority behaves anything like the last Republican majority, they will be kicked out just as quickly. The American people are demanding Conservative governance. This is not just another cyclical purge, this is something historic. This is going to be a genuine political realignment.

GOVERNORSHIPS

The long term effect of the coming storm will be felt right here. When all is over, the GOP will control between 30 and 35 of the Nation's 50 Governorships. It is here- not the Senate or House- that we will have our strongest firewall against Obama. It is here- not the Senate or the House- where the success of Conservative Governance will continue to be displayed. Finally, it is here- not the House or Senate- where the ground game will begin that will rout Obama and the Democrats in 2012, leading to a Republican Presidency and a filibuster-proof Senate majority.

In 2009, the GOP gained three Governorships- Jan Brewer in Arizona, Bob McDonnell in Virginia and Chris Christie in New Jersey. The courage and leadership they have shown has been amazing. In 2010, they are going to get a lot of help. In addition to holding Florida- the #1 Battleground State- Republicans are poised to pick up the states at #2, #3 and #4. With Republican Governors in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan, Obama's reelection hopes would be bleak enough.However, when you also add Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico, the levers of realignment from the 2010 census tip remarkably in our favor.

Republicans won't stop there. Tennessee, Wyoming, Kansas, Illinois, Oregon and Maine will all replace Democrats with Republicans. New York, Maine and Massachucetts are not out of reach either. California could be an important hold because Meg Whitman would move the state well to the right of the Governator. Add to that Mitch Daniels, who is already doing a superb job in Indiana and the beginnings of a Conservative dynasty are easy to see. This could really be the beginning of the end for liberalism.

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Liberal predictions of a Democratic defense of the house are delusional. If you look at the current projections of safe seats on Real Clear Politics, they show a 17 point Republican advantage with 38 tossups. In a normal election year, the two parties would each be expected to win 19 and lose 19 of the tossups. This would put the new congress at a 226-209 Republican majority. That alone would be a loss of 48 seats for the Democrats.

This is no ordinary year. Republican primary participation is the highest in 40 years. The Republicans had more votes than Democrats for the first time in 80 years and the Democratic participation was the lowest ever. The Republican lead in the Generic ballot has been as high as 12 points - the highest ever- and the GOP enthusiasm gap is off the charts. It is highly unlikely that the Republicans will win only 19 of these 38 races. A safer bet is that they will win 28 or better. The conservative end of that scale puts Democratic losses at 60 seats or more. Even that doesn't tell the whole story. So deep is this wave that it is even reaching races that pollsters didn't even think about polling and- almost daily- the list of vulnerable democrats grows.

In January of this year, the Cook Political report listed 39 Democratic House seats as vulnerable. In May, the number had grown to 63. Today, it stands at 79. However, Dick Morris and others believe the true number is much higher. In fact, Morris has gone on record as saying that Democratic losses could break the record of 74 set in 1922, and could even reach 100 seats.

Whether we can reach 100 seats or not, I don't know. Yet, I think I can predict-with confidence- that Democrats will not only not defend the House but will not come within 20 seats of defending it. The Republican majority in January of 2011 will be larger than the one they had in January of 2005.

THE SENATE

Whether or not the GOP will have a Senate Majority in January of 2011, I cannot be certain. If not, they will be very close. Republicans will emerge with no fewer than 49 seats and no more than 55. The median result of 52 is entirely plausible. Republicans will defend all of their own seats- including Florida. In addition, they will pickup Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Arkansas, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Colorado, to go along with their Massachusetts pickup in January. Despite her struggles, I am confident that Sharron Angle will also knock off Harry Reid in Nevada.

If Angle does indeed win, it would be the 50th seat and we would need to knock off one more seat from among California, Connecticut, Washington, New York and Delaware. Stealing one of those races is plausible. Two? Unlikely.Three? That is just pressing our luck.

Sharron Angle must beat Harry Reid to keep us in the game. Plus, Reid has just got to go, anyway.

If Angle can get us to 50, Dino Rossi (Washington) followed by McMahon (Connecticut) and Fiorina (California) gives us best chance at 51. Whether or not the GOP reaches a senate majority this year, they are certain to have one in January of 2013, perhaps even a filibuster proof majority. 23 Democrats have to defend in 2012.

OF WILL AND MEANS

Once the GOP takes back the reins in Congress, Governorships and State Legislatures, the must resist the temptation to reach across the aisles. Republicans must have the strong will to bring back Conservative governance- to restore morality and fiscal sanity and to not just stop, but reverse, the relentless march of oppressive government. This could very well be the last chance we have to save this country - God willing.

That is the question that will decide whether or not we will win the Senate. Before I go into detail, it is important to marvel at just how incredible it is that we are even having this conversation. That is a conversation that must be had because, should we fall short of taking the senate (a real possibility), Democrats will claim it showed that GOP momentum was not as strong as advertised.

That dog don't hunt.

January 2009

In 2009, when Barack Obama took power, the Republicans were still retiring and bleeding. The idea that even one Democrat was in danger was not even discussed. In fact, the only argument was how many more Republicans would lose. Let me repeat this. In January of 2009, the only discussion was how much worse things would get for Republicans. Additional Republican losses were assumed, not speculated. There was no question of 'if' only of 'how many'?

How many?

From the Democratic perspective, Arlen Specter's party switch was further proof of a permanent Democratic ascendancy. He provided them with a filibuster-proof 60th vote in the Senate and it was guaranteed they would add 2-5 more seats in 2010.

The minimum was 2 because Kentucky's Jim Bunning was very unpopular as was George Voinovich in Ohio. However, Democrats were more than confident they would pick up New Hampshire, Missouri and North Carolina as well. It must be understood that if the election were held in January 2009, the Dems would probably have picked up all 5 seats.

Then to now

The minimum gains the GOP will make in the Senate is 9 seats. (Scott Brown's January win + 8 more in November). The Maximum is 15 (Brown +14).

That means the REAL GOP gains- the picked up seats plus the ones that came back from the dead- means that the GOP's actual position will have improved by between 14 and 20 seats. This was unthinkable a year ago. Only by an incredible 6 special elections being added, did that change.

The death of Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd, the corruption of Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan, the appointments of Hillary Clinton and Ken Salazar, the wholesale collapse of Obama and the Democrats and the rise of the Tea party have all contributed to the change. The change has been amazing. The sheer scope of changing circumstances bringing us to here is just mind-boggling.

So, looking at the 14 additional races we could pick up. We will go least likely to most likely. Remember, we need 10 of these for a takeover.

The "we need a break" group.

Though it is very doubtful that we can win these 4 races, Senate control may very well depend on us picking off 1 of these races. If we take 2 or more, we are virtually assured of control.

14. Delaware.
This race went from a Democratic lock to a Republican lock back to a Democratic lock. It remains to be seen if it can bounce back again. This was Joe Biden's seat for 36 years. Why are the dems attacking Christine O'Donnell so viciously? It is very simple. If the Dems cannot hold this seat, they cannot hope to hold the Senate because-given the size of a wave that indicates- other races will fall too..

13. New York.
If we lose this race, it is the biggest missed opportunity this year. Kirsten Gillibrand has always been vulnerable. Republicans waited far too long to get in this race. It is hard to imagine what they were waiting for. This is the special election to permanently replace Hillary Clinton. Is Joe Dioguardia strong enough to beat her in this environment? Without question. Does he have enough time? We will see. He has already taken 10 points off her lead.

12. California
This race has been back and forth and I keep waiting for Carly Fiorina to take control over Barbara Boxer. She hasn't yet but I still think she will. This race threatens to be the fish that got away.

11. Connecticut.
Linda McMahon is closing fast on Richard Blumenthal She is still down slightly but, unlike the California race, the trend is our friend in the race to replace scumbag Chris Dodd.
Obviously, if we go 0-4 in the previous 4, the remaining races are all must wins. More than likely, we will slip up somewhere. These are the two races most likely to make us need a steal in the 11-14 group.

10. Washington
Unfortunately, Dino Rossi is the most likely slip up. Even when he wins, he loses. In the 2004 Gubernatorial race, Democrats in the State of Washington, and their willing accomplices in the courts, stole the race from Rossi by simply recounting and recounting until they were able to find enough ballots to win. Democrats repeated this feat in the Minnesota senate race. Does anyone doubt that Rossi must beat Patty Murray by at least 2% for his win to count?

9. Nevada.
This was once the surest pickup in America. Now, it is tenuous at best. What Nevada Republicans and Independents were thinking when they nominated Sharron Angle is a mystery to me. Harry Reid has 100% name i.d. and would be down by 20 points if Sue Lowden were the
nominee, we would have no chance of losing. However, without Harry Reid as the target, we would have no chance of winning. Harry Reid has to defend his spot as one of the heads on the three-headed monster. I believe this race will ultimately be decided as a race between Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell for majority leader. I think this race breaks to us at the end and Angle eeks out a small victory.

The We look good group.

8. West Virginia.
This race is billed as Joe Manchin's popularity vs Obama's unpopularity. Manchin is losing the race. What's more? He losing to a guy who only got 36% of the vote in 2006. John Raese might as well not be on the ballot. The RNC is just hammering Manchin as a rubber stamp for Obama's cap and trade plans that would kill West Virginia coal. The ads are working to devastating effect. I think we have this race locked down. It may sound crass but without Robert Byrd croaking (and Kennedy before him), we would not be able to pick up the senate.

7. Illinois.
The numbers Republican Mark Kirk are putting up are not so impressive. However, it is hard to fathom that Alexi Giannoulias is only polling 41% defending Barack Obama's Senate seat. A defacto incumbent polling 41% in a two-way race is TOAST. Consider this. In 2004, Barack Obama won this race by 43 points. Even a 1 point Kirk win would be a 44 point swing in the President's own state. Do I need say more?

6. Colorado.
A true battleground all year but now Ken Buck is up to an 8 point lead over Michael Bennett and pulling away.