After reading up on him it sounds like we really need to sign this kid. He has often been called the best pitcher ever out of arkansas and has always been ranked a top 5 HS pitcher ever since he was a freshman. The downside is he hasn't picked up much velocity since he was a freshman and can't why over the 93 MOPH hump but I think that if he signs he's already a top 10 prospect for us. Hard thrower with good command for an 18 year old and a clean delivery and the production to back it up, how did he fall so far?

ClevBuck wrote:After reading up on him it sounds like we really need to sign this kid. He has often been called the best pitcher ever out of arkansas and has always been ranked a top 5 HS pitcher ever since he was a freshman. The downside is he hasn't picked up much velocity since he was a freshman and can't why over the 93 MOPH hump but I think that if he signs he's already a top 10 prospect for us. Hard thrower with good command for an 18 year old and a clean delivery and the production to back it up, how did he fall so far?

92-94 4 Seam Fastball90-92 2 Seam Fastball79-81 Slurve82-83 Change

I hope we get this kid signed but best pitcher ever out of Arkansas? That will take a lot (Cliff Lee is from Arky)

I read he dropped to the second round because Scott Boras is his agent. I won't be surprised if he doesn't sign. Boras will demand first round money and the Indians are loaded with quality pitching prospects, so why would they go over slot for a high school pitcher?

If you were Boras would you say to Howard, "We both know you have first round ability but you fell to the second because GM's know I'm a hard ass and they don't want anything to do with me. So I guess you'll just have to take second round money. Sorry."

Hell no, he'll tell Howard to go to college, have a great freshman season, and hopefully improve his draft position next year and also get picked by a team with deeper pockets than the Indians.

OTOH, maybe the Indians see Howard as a solid first round pick so they're willing to ante up first round money for him. They have an excellent record of signing all their top picks recently so I wouldn't bet against them. They might just look at it like they had two first round picks this year.

Prosecutor wrote:I read he dropped to the second round because Scott Boras is his agent. I won't be surprised if he doesn't sign. Boras will demand first round money and the Indians are loaded with quality pitching prospects, so why would they go over slot for a high school pitcher?

If you were Boras would you say to Howard, "We both know you have first round ability but you fell to the second because GM's know I'm a hard ass and they don't want anything to do with me. So I guess you'll just have to take second round money. Sorry."

Hell no, he'll tell Howard to go to college, have a great freshman season, and hopefully improve his draft position next year and also get picked by a team with deeper pockets than the Indians.

OTOH, maybe the Indians see Howard as a solid first round pick so they're willing to ante up first round money for him. They have an excellent record of signing all their top picks recently so I wouldn't bet against them. They might just look at it like they had two first round picks this year.

I think if they don't sign Howard they will sign his summer teammate Peters (fell but similar talent - not as high as Howard but in the same class). Unless they break the bank, I don't see the Tribe signing both (hope I'm wrong). If we sign Howard, Peters, Cisko, and Tarpley this may be the best hall of arms we've had in a single draft.

Prosecutor wrote:I read he dropped to the second round because Scott Boras is his agent. I won't be surprised if he doesn't sign. Boras will demand first round money and the Indians are loaded with quality pitching prospects, so why would they go over slot for a high school pitcher?

OTOH, maybe the Indians see Howard as a solid first round pick so they're willing to ante up first round money for him. They have an excellent record of signing all their top picks recently so I wouldn't bet against them. They might just look at it like they had two first round picks this year.

Last year we gave LeVon Washington mid 1st money last year at 1.6 Mil and 8th Round Pick Alex Lavisky mid-late 1st round money with 1 Mil. The Tribe said before the draft they are looking to spend more and be more agressive, I would expect him to sign I think we may offer up to 2 mil which means he would need to be about a top 10 pick the next time to draft to match or do better unless a team goes really over slot

I think an offer for 1.7-2 mil gets it done, Boras isn't a complete moron and knows to turn that down out of HS is a huge risk

ClevBuck wrote:So Cliff Lee and Dizzy Dean were that good as they are known for at 18/21? That's news to me!

I wounder when people will ever figure out when the "best ever put of...." title gets put on a player it means they are ahead of other past players AT THAT AGE not current playing status

I think maybe it should have said best pitching prospect or something to that effect instead of 'best pitcher'. I see that Lee was a 4th rounder though I'm not sure of the circumstances around that (that is, unknown to me if he was rated as highly as Howard going into the draft). Also, if I remember correctly, Lee wasn't really thought of as a future ace during his time in the minors. It doesn't seem a stretch to me to say that Howard is more highly regarded than Lee was at this stage.

One thing definitely working in the Tribe's favor are the rumors about a possible slot system in future drafts. Guys like Howard may be more willing to sign even with Boras as his agent. Still gonna cost the Tribe though. $2M would not suprise me. He's worth/will likely get Allie money.

Prosecutor wrote:I read he dropped to the second round because Scott Boras is his agent. I won't be surprised if he doesn't sign. Boras will demand first round money and the Indians are loaded with quality pitching prospects, so why would they go over slot for a high school pitcher?

OTOH, maybe the Indians see Howard as a solid first round pick so they're willing to ante up first round money for him. They have an excellent record of signing all their top picks recently so I wouldn't bet against them. They might just look at it like they had two first round picks this year.

Last year we gave LeVon Washington mid 1st money last year at 1.6 Mil and 8th Round Pick Alex Lavisky mid-late 1st round money with 1 Mil. The Tribe said before the draft they are looking to spend more and be more agressive, I would expect him to sign I think we may offer up to 2 mil which means he would need to be about a top 10 pick the next time to draft to match or do better unless a team goes really over slot

I think an offer for 1.7-2 mil gets it done, Boras isn't a complete moron and knows to turn that down out of HS is a huge risk

from what I heard and read looking for 2.5 mil to sign, he wont be an easy sign but I agree he would slot in to the 6-9 range of the top ten prospects and I hope we do sign him

Prosecutor wrote:I read he dropped to the second round because Scott Boras is his agent. I won't be surprised if he doesn't sign. Boras will demand first round money and the Indians are loaded with quality pitching prospects, so why would they go over slot for a high school pitcher?

OTOH, maybe the Indians see Howard as a solid first round pick so they're willing to ante up first round money for him. They have an excellent record of signing all their top picks recently so I wouldn't bet against them. They might just look at it like they had two first round picks this year.

Last year we gave LeVon Washington mid 1st money last year at 1.6 Mil and 8th Round Pick Alex Lavisky mid-late 1st round money with 1 Mil. The Tribe said before the draft they are looking to spend more and be more agressive, I would expect him to sign I think we may offer up to 2 mil which means he would need to be about a top 10 pick the next time to draft to match or do better unless a team goes really over slot

I think an offer for 1.7-2 mil gets it done, Boras isn't a complete moron and knows to turn that down out of HS is a huge risk

from what I heard and read looking for 2.5 mil to sign, he wont be an easy sign but I agree he would slot in to the 6-9 range of the top ten prospects and I hope we do sign him

Washington was also a Boras client (one year out of HS who spurned 1st round money the year before) ... and we thought he would sign for more than 1.2 so Cleveland did good keeping him in check (not the 1.8 - 2.0 million being reported early in the process).

And ... why would Howard comannd more than Allie when was the 3rd prospect in the Pitt system ahead of Marte and Morris but behind Sanchez and Tallion ... yet Howard would be at best 6th in ours behind (Pom, White (if he doesn't get innings this year), Knapp, Chis, Kipnis, maybe Washington, Weglarz, ...). And, what about Barnes and Adams and others who have more velocity but not as polished? Then don't forget about Wolters, ... Are we that much more loaded than Pitt? Or, are we going off Howard was around 18th best prosect per some like Law but 31st per BA ... Not that far different, but maybe he jumps to 5 behind Chis and Kipnis.

petes999 wrote:Washington was also a Boras client (one year out of HS who spurned 1st round money the year before) ... and we thought he would sign for more than 1.2 so Cleveland did good keeping him in check (not the 1.8 - 2.0 million being reported early in the process).

And ... why would Howard comannd more than Allie when was the 3rd prospect in the Pitt system ahead of Marte and Morris but behind Sanchez and Tallion ... yet Howard would be at best 6th in ours behind (Pom, White (if he doesn't get innings this year), Knapp, Chis, Kipnis, maybe Washington, Weglarz, ...). And, what about Barnes and Adams and others who have more velocity but not as polished? Then don't forget about Wolters, ... Are we that much more loaded than Pitt? Or, are we going off Howard was around 18th best prosect per some like Law but 31st per BA ... Not that far different, but maybe he jumps to 5 behind Chis and Kipnis.

I think $1.5 to $2.0 million gets it done ... not quite Allie money.

Where a guy will rank in our system means nothing when it comes to what a guy wants/will require to sign. Just because the Tribe has a better system than the pirates doesn't mean we'll get Howard for cheaper. He's every bit as good as Allie and held a 1st round grade from just about everyone. If we sign him for less than $2M it's an absolute steal. I'd rather have Howard personally than Allie.

Let me calrify ... if Dilon is worth $2 million and equivalent to Allie, then he should be up around 5 or 6 (Pom, White, Chis, Kinips, Knapp -- thus 6 if White is still a rookie status at year end). Yet, I just don't see him with a power FB up to 94 consistently (so up to 96 range when he reaches back) if he sat at 91-92 on his 2 seamer for the last few years ... thus, I would put him around Washington and thus pay him around $1.5 mill.

The end of the day the tribe came out with 2 top 15 prospects in the draft. Hard not to like that. They will get them signed. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tribe spend 10 mil maybe as much as 12 mil (which would be extremely aggressive).

petes999 wrote:Let me calrify ... if Dilon is worth $2 million and equivalent to Allie, then he should be up around 5 or 6 (Pom, White, Chis, Kinips, Knapp -- thus 6 if White is still a rookie status at year end). Yet, I just don't see him with a power FB up to 94 consistently (so up to 96 range when he reaches back) if he sat at 91-92 on his 2 seamer for the last few years ... thus, I would put him around Washington and thus pay him around $1.5 mill.

Let me repeat, where he ranks means nothing. He could be the #10 prospect and he'll still get around $2M like Allie. If Howard was in the Pirates system, he'd have been 3 or 4 this year probably.

petes999 wrote:Let me calrify ... if Dilon is worth $2 million and equivalent to Allie, then he should be up around 5 or 6 (Pom, White, Chis, Kinips, Knapp -- thus 6 if White is still a rookie status at year end). Yet, I just don't see him with a power FB up to 94 consistently (so up to 96 range when he reaches back) if he sat at 91-92 on his 2 seamer for the last few years ... thus, I would put him around Washington and thus pay him around $1.5 mill.

Let me repeat, where he ranks means nothing. He could be the #10 prospect and he'll still get around $2M like Allie. If Howard was in the Pirates system, he'd have been 3 or 4 this year probably.

Thanks for the clarification ... I was just higher on Norris than Howard and would have put Norris closer to Allie (was higher on Allie last year than both Norris and Howard) - thus the reason for saying he should get less. But as you imply, Boris is going to ask for the moon ... and may get closer to it .. especially if he is as good as Allie. I just use rank for comparison. Based on his speed and a comment from saying that he is not as projectable, I have just been lowballing him. Hope to hear good things come Arizona instruct. league time ... meaning he signed and is impressing our staff.

Prosecutor wrote:I read he dropped to the second round because Scott Boras is his agent. I won't be surprised if he doesn't sign. Boras will demand first round money and the Indians are loaded with quality pitching prospects, so why would they go over slot for a high school pitcher?

OTOH, maybe the Indians see Howard as a solid first round pick so they're willing to ante up first round money for him. They have an excellent record of signing all their top picks recently so I wouldn't bet against them. They might just look at it like they had two first round picks this year.

Last year we gave LeVon Washington mid 1st money last year at 1.6 Mil and 8th Round Pick Alex Lavisky mid-late 1st round money with 1 Mil. The Tribe said before the draft they are looking to spend more and be more agressive, I would expect him to sign I think we may offer up to 2 mil which means he would need to be about a top 10 pick the next time to draft to match or do better unless a team goes really over slot

I think an offer for 1.7-2 mil gets it done, Boras isn't a complete moron and knows to turn that down out of HS is a huge risk

from what I heard and read looking for 2.5 mil to sign, he wont be an easy sign but I agree he would slot in to the 6-9 range of the top ten prospects and I hope we do sign him

Washington was also a Boras client (one year out of HS who spurned 1st round money the year before) ... and we thought he would sign for more than 1.2 so Cleveland did good keeping him in check (not the 1.8 - 2.0 million being reported early in the process).

And ... why would Howard comannd more than Allie when was the 3rd prospect in the Pitt system ahead of Marte and Morris but behind Sanchez and Tallion ... yet Howard would be at best 6th in ours behind (Pom, White (if he doesn't get innings this year), Knapp, Chis, Kipnis, maybe Washington, Weglarz, ...). And, what about Barnes and Adams and others who have more velocity but not as polished? Then don't forget about Wolters, ... Are we that much more loaded than Pitt? Or, are we going off Howard was around 18th best prosect per some like Law but 31st per BA ... Not that far different, but maybe he jumps to 5 behind Chis and Kipnis.

I think $1.5 to $2.0 million gets it done ... not quite Allie money.

read a report that claimed he wanted top ten slot money to sign, that's why closer to 2.5. He is a high school kid with a major commitment, Lavon was stuck in the Juco ranks. Allie for we loved him here, was a guy many teams had as a reliever on there boards. Howard I think is a better pitcher, thats me and I think he will cost a ton.

homerawayfromhome wrote:The end of the day the tribe came out with 2 top 15 prospects in the draft. Hard not to like that. They will get them signed. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tribe spend 10 mil maybe as much as 12 mil (which would be extremely aggressive).

I actually put a 20% chance they sign Howard. He has a very strong commitment, and high demands. If he doesn't sign we get a comp pick next year. Plus lets face it, no player wants to come to Cleveland so we don't get a discount of any kind if anything he might want more

homerawayfromhome wrote:The end of the day the tribe came out with 2 top 15 prospects in the draft. Hard not to like that. They will get them signed. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tribe spend 10 mil maybe as much as 12 mil (which would be extremely aggressive).

I actually put a 20% chance they sign Howard. He has a very strong commitment, and high demands. If he doesn't sign we get a comp pick next year. Plus lets face it, no player wants to come to Cleveland so we don't get a discount of any kind if anything he might want more

He lives in Arkansas. I think hed take Cleveland. And hes not exactly in a position to decide what ML team to play for. If they really like him they will sign him. If it was more of a hes too good to pass up here lets gamble pick then I guess they can play hardball.

Hmmm.. both second rounders.. both with "high bonus demands.. sure, the comp is there.. but that's about where it ends.. btw:

Stetson Allie entered the 2010 draft as one of the highest rated prep pitchers on the board, but fell to the Pirates in the second round after reportedly asking for $3 M from teams inquiring in the first round. The Pirates took him, and ended up giving him $2.25 M to sign, which is the biggest bonus the Pirates have ever given out after the first round.

So a demand of first round bonus and settling for 75% of that.. might be in the works for young and talented Mr Howard...at least I hope that's how it goes... Hermie is right about the hard slotting.. it will give some of these kids impetus to sign now, rather than lose later...

Not that this was the point of this thread (although it could be), from a talent/development perspective, I don't know about the Stetson Allie comparisons to Dillon Howard. Allie doesn't have the control or the repertoire of pitches that Dillon Howard has. Jameson Taillon, the Pirates best prospect from the prep ranks is a much better comp in this regard. Taillon is considered the future ace of the staff for the Pirates, a projection that may not be too far off, imho. Howard & Taillon both have the strong fastball, curve balls and change.. along with the polish/control of a college junior.. Allie doesn't..

From having been a part of advising playerss, most particularly pitchers drafted and contemplating their options ..her'es my perspective and how I adivised them. Obviosuly the money and education stips, are what needs to reach your level of demand. But, beyond that you look at the organization, most particularly the developmental program in place for your given position, pitcher.

To me, you'd have to look at the Indians as one of the better organizations to go to if you are a young pitcher, because we are established as a pitcher friendly franchise. One that is cautious when it comes to workload, and has patience in the recovery process when it involves injury. The Indians are also establishing a strong reputation for successfully developing pitchers through their system.

The Indians are far from percieved as a poor organization for prospective pitchers, I think we have fighting shots with anybody we draft when it comes to pitchers, much better than with position players.

From having been a part of advising playerss, most particularly pitchers drafted and contemplating their options ..her'es my perspective and how I adivised them. Obviosuly the money and education stips, are what needs to reach your level of demand. But, beyond that you look at the organization, most particularly the developmental program in place for your given position, pitcher.

To me, you'd have to look at the Indians as one of the better organizations to go to if you are a young pitcher, because we are established as a pitcher friendly franchise. One that is cautious when it comes to workload, and has patience in the recovery process when it involves injury. The Indians are also establishing a strong reputation for successfully developing pitchers through their system.

The Indians are far from percieved as a poor organization for prospective pitchers, I think we have fighting shots with anybody we draft when it comes to pitchers, much better than with position players.

From having been a part of advising playerss, most particularly pitchers drafted and contemplating their options ..her'es my perspective and how I adivised them. Obviosuly the money and education stips, are what needs to reach your level of demand. But, beyond that you look at the organization, most particularly the developmental program in place for your given position, pitcher.

To me, you'd have to look at the Indians as one of the better organizations to go to if you are a young pitcher, because we are established as a pitcher friendly franchise. One that is cautious when it comes to workload, and has patience in the recovery process when it involves injury. The Indians are also establishing a strong reputation for successfully developing pitchers through their system.

The Indians are far from percieved as a poor organization for prospective pitchers, I think we have fighting shots with anybody we draft when it comes to pitchers, much better than with position players.

Yeah I don't think many prospects would hold out for more money because it was Cleveland that drafted them. You are so far from the majors that anything can happen. While a team like the Yankees does sound better, odds are you'll end up in Cleveland or Oakland or somewhere after being dealt for a star anyways.

GeronimoSon wrote:Not that this was the point of this thread (although it could be), from a talent/development perspective, I don't know about the Stetson Allie comparisons to Dillon Howard. Allie doesn't have the control or the repertoire of pitches that Dillon Howard has. Jameson Taillon, the Pirates best prospect from the prep ranks is a much better comp in this regard. Taillon is considered the future ace of the staff for the Pirates, a projection that may not be too far off, imho. Howard & Taillon both have the strong fastball, curve balls and change.. along with the polish/control of a college junior.. Allie doesn't..

I just think you are selling Allie short and even Tailon for that matter. Both were up to 98 mph ... BA would have put Talion between Bundy and Bradley this year. Thus, to say Howard is more of a Tailon comparison is a bit of a strech. I hope that Howard can live up to that, but his top speed is 94 and hasn't inched up the last few years. I hope for a growth spurt now ... and add a few to that where he can be in Tailon range.

However, Allie was no prospect slouch. He was listed as 8th best prospect last year per BA and 14th per PG where Howard was between 18th and 31st depending on who you talk to. Yes, this was a deeper class, but by how much to say Howard should be comped to Talion instead of Allie? Allie didn't have the best control but control can be taught ... sometimes. Speed can't. Howard will hopefully can some like Soto should ... Yet, is Soto in your top 5-10 of prospects as he is 19 years old .... filling out ... good command of secondary pitching (like House .... and now Howard). Command and all that is good. But, without a good fastball, it is just like Tomlin where you can be MOR or BOR pitcher ... but elude that elite status.

Ok Im a bit confused. I've been doing some reading on Howard and some talk about this 18 yr old, like he's pro ready and done developing. From what I've read some have suggested he's ready and won't develop much more than he already. 6'2 200 lbs is big frame but he's still 18... He could easily add an inch and another 20lbs which would likely put his fastball 95-96 consistently. Projection: Howard is a number 2 type pitcher IMO. That's great to be able to add that kind of arm to the system, as he gets stronger and matures into his early 20s he will add 10-15 lbs and another tick or two to the fastball, he has hit 95 in the past. His offspeed stuff should only get better and his slider is more likely to become a power pitch, rather than the slurve action it has currently.This is a kid the tribe needs to sign. I'd give him first rd money, if teams knew he'd sign I think we would have seen him go between 10-20 in the first rd. I believe he is a arm that would move qkly even in the tribes deep (f)ARM system, 3-4 yrs instead of 4-6 yrs for a hs player.

homerawayfromhome wrote:Ok Im a bit confused. I've been doing some reading on Howard and some talk about this 18 yr old, like he's pro ready and done developing. From what I've read some have suggested he's ready and won't develop much more than he already. 6'2 200 lbs is big frame but he's still 18... He could easily add an inch and another 20lbs which would likely put his fastball 95-96 consistently. Projection: Howard is a number 2 type pitcher IMO. That's great to be able to add that kind of arm to the system, as he gets stronger and matures into his early 20s he will add 10-15 lbs and another tick or two to the fastball, he has hit 95 in the past. His offspeed stuff should only get better and his slider is more likely to become a power pitch, rather than the slurve action it has currently.This is a kid the tribe needs to sign. I'd give him first rd money, if teams knew he'd sign I think we would have seen him go between 10-20 in the first rd. I believe he is a arm that would move qkly even in the tribes deep (f)ARM system, 3-4 yrs instead of 4-6 yrs for a hs player.

the issue is from 15-18 his fastball has added zero velocity, during a time when most kids jump even has he has gotten bigger there is no added speed, so chance he might not add anything

There is sometimes not a great comparison, but I think Howard is a similar kind of guy to Matt Cain. They both have pretty similar deliveries (Howard is obviously less polished being a teenager, and his upper half isn't as filled out as Cain's but that's a function of age). Cain has always had a nice lively fastball, the way Howard does. Neither are super flashy as far as projection, but both have similar deliveries, similar arm slots (traditional 3/4) and are 6'4" RHP that get it done with easy, uncomplicated deliveries. Howard has a really nice arm action like Cain's. I think Matt Cain is a reasonable comp for Howard. I'm not saying expect a perennial 3.00-3.50 ERA, 200 IP guy out of Howard, but he's got Cain's upside. The one thing is Cain always had good control coming up through the minors, and I don't know if Howard has that (I say that b/c I've never seen him in person once, or more than once).

Regarding Howard, he fell b/c teams probably didn't think he was worth the money he was asking, which might have been $2 million or beyond that (I don't know). Regardless, I support inking this guy for $2 million if it comes to it (realizing it's probably more than he should get -- I just want him in the system).

I'd sign him if I thought he would be Matt Cain. I think thats a pretty fair comp. and agree he has that upside.After seeing Knapp go down again, I'd be extra aggressive personally... Just think a team like the Tribe has to overload their minor league system in every possible way this includes dishing out the big bucks on these guys.Personally I'd rather spend 12-14 mil. on 25-30 prospects than on two / three vets. Things don't always work out either way but the numbers are in your favor when you consider the sheer volume and upside of prospects that the club could sign if they did spend that kind of money.

The tribe drafted him knowing he has a 2 million dollar price tag at least. With that and now Knapp going down, they sign him 100% unless his demands are ridiculous. Tribe will spend up to 2.5 mil for this guy IMO.

criznit2009 wrote:The tribe drafted him knowing he has a 2 million dollar price tag at least. With that and now Knapp going down, they sign him 100% unless his demands are ridiculous. Tribe will spend up to 2.5 mil for this guy IMO.

Get your point but they could also go the other way and not want to spend that much on a HS pitcher with the injury risk so high

@ jellis agreed Knapps injury will not affect who the tribe signs... Wasn't really the injury to Knapp in particular more I believe the tribe should be aggressive in signing some these guys... The Knapp injury just shows can never have too many good pitching prospects.