Just Ignore the Slow Starts

The Knicks Often Fall Behind Early—But Things Tend to Work Out in the End

By

Chris Herring

Updated March 6, 2013 11:00 p.m. ET

AUBURN HILLS, Mich.—Considering some of the disastrous years that preceded this one, the 2012-13 season has been a pretty good one for the Knicks.

They have outperformed preseason expectations. They remain in the driver's seat for the Atlantic Division crown. And they are widely considered as being one of the few with a puncher's chance at taking out the defending champion Miami Heat this postseason.

But if there is one confounding problem that has plagued this team, it is the Knicks' consistently slow starts each night.

A close look at the numbers suggests that team's age may have a lot to do with that.

The Knicks, the oldest team in the league, seem to pick their spots when it comes to playing with urgency. Like several older teams before them, the Knicks seem to realize they usually have enough talent and know-how to win, no matter how large a hole they dig themselves.

The 104 points per 100 possessions they allow in the first quarter ranks 18th in the league. Conversely, in the fourth quarter, they allow just 99.4 points per 100 possessions—fifth-best in the NBA.

The Knicks followed that formula Monday during their 22-point comeback victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The win marked the Knicks' 10th of the season in which they came back from a deficit of 10 points or more—the NBA's third-highest win total in such games, according to Stats LLC. (They got their 11th comeback win Wednesday night against the Detroit Pistons.)

Statistically, that makes them almost identical to other teams that have been the league's oldest in years past. In four of the past five seasons, the NBA's oldest team has been among the league-leaders in come-from-behind wins.

For instance, the 2009 Dallas Mavericks had an NBA-high 18 wins in which they came back from 10 or more points down. A pair of San Antonio Spurs teams, in 2007 and 2008, and the 2010 Miami Heat all finished with more than a dozen comeback victories—considerably more than the league average of eight wins.

Jason Kidd, who played on that 2009 Dallas team, said he believes more experienced teams play with a subconscious lack of fire to start games. The 39-year-old acknowledged the approach is a risky, but natural for a team that has older players who have won before.

"[Playing that way] isn't necessarily ideal, but I think it does end up happening that way sometimes with experienced teams," said Kidd, who won a title in 2010. "There's a balance. You obviously want to play with effort. But to be a team that closes well, you have to have something in the tank for the end of the game."

Granted, the Knicks' collective age doesn't explain all of their early-game struggles. Coach Mike Woodson attributed Monday's slow start in Cleveland to playing on the road, and he may have been onto something: Nine of the Knicks' 11 biggest come-from-behind wins have been on the road.

But there are other factors involved in the Knicks' early-game struggles.

For one, the starting lineups are ever-changing. Wednesday's starters—Raymond Felton, Iman Shumpert, Tyson Chandler and little-used players Kurt Thomas and James White—comprised the Knicks' 16th different starting lineup this season. Among the 16 teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today, only the Atlanta Hawks have used more lineup variations to start games.

Age is undeniably an issue in the slow starts, too. Analysts have long said that younger teams are capable of performing well against stronger opponents in the early going, but tend to falter down the stretch, lacking the necessary savvy to hold the lead.

That notion appears to be holding firm this season. Among the 10 teams who have blown the most big leads this season, eight are in the younger half of the league. The Pistons, the Knicks' opponent here Wednesday, landed on that list, having lost 16 double-digit leads.

"You can look at age, but I think it just comes down to us taking every opponent seriously," said Thomas, who's 40 years old. "It's human nature to look at a schedule and say, 'We're the better team [and should win.]' But games aren't played on paper. Every team in this league is capable of beating you—especially if you take them lightly."

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