One Voter in Three Endorses Broad-based Coalition

All the observers concur that Italy today is in a dramatic situation. The verdict of the polls has produced a parliament that looks unlikely, not to say unable, to form a governing majority. Various options have been put forward over the past few days yet each proposal has its limits and difficulties.

What do voters think? What solutions are most widely appreciated by current public opinion? The electorate appears to be deeply divided on the issue. One third of Italians apparently endorse the idea of another “odd majority” with the PD and People of Freedom (PDL) back together again to pass a package of essential reforms and then call another election. However, a similar proportion would prefer a stable alliance of the Centre-left and M5S to have a stab at governing. There is less consensus for the formation of a technocratic executive led by a non-political figure but with support from the major parties, or for a minority Centre-left administration seeking to push through laws with the agreement of other parties on a case-by-case basis.

Obviously, these possible outcomes attract differing levels of approval among voters from the various parties. As was perhaps predictable, Centre-right votes – PDL supporters in particular – back (72% in favour) the proposal for a government of national unity involving the PD and PDL. A relative majority (40%) of PD voters supports the option of some sort of alliance between the Centre-left and M5S. Nevertheless, a not insignificant proportion of PD voters would prefer to see a minority government formed mainly by their party, confirming the existence of a range of opinions, if not an actual split, within the PD.

Yet it is interesting to note that the option of direct M5S involvement in government in an executive with the PD is the one preferred, out of those proposed, by a large swath (70%) of Five Star MoVement voters themselves. This may reflect a somewhat greater degree of openness in M5S voters, as compared with grassroots militants. The phenomenon is highlighted by Biorcio and Natale in their latest study of Beppe Grillo’s movement (Politica a 5 Stelle [Five Star Politics], Feltrinelli). At the same time, as several observers note, some M5S parliamentarians might allow themselves to be persuaded by the overtures Mr Bersani will undoubtedly make when the moment comes to choose whether to support such a government.

But this is mere speculation and at the present time it looks to be rather improbable. Most Italians are convinced that the Five Star MoVement, which has reaffirmed its disinclination to join a government alliance with the traditional parties, would not accept any such solution, at least in the early stages. In fact, only 16% of interviewees think M5S parliamentarians will consent to an agreement with the Centre-left coalition. The majority (53%) of Italians – and two thirds of M5S voters – believe that Beppe Grillo’s parliamentarians will be able to help push through a number of important reforms but will steer well clear of close-knit alliances.

In other words, Italians are well aware of the stalemate we have reached. And they are deeply divided over the way forward.