Ryan O’Reilly skates in a game against Calgary. John Leyba, The Denver Post

Miracles never cease, eh? Ryan O’Reilly and Joe Sakic shaking hands and smiling today – whouda thunk it? My story on how the last-minute deal went down between the Avs and O’Reilly is up, and I’d like to think it’s kind of an interesting read.

Nothing like that 11th hour, deadline pressure to get things moving huh? When I talked to Sakic earlier this morning, of course I had to kiddingly ask him, “So why couldn’t you guys just have done this before? Why did you have to go all the way to Toronto and stay two nights in a hotel to get this done?” Joe being classy Joe, he took the jibe in stride and agreed that, yeah, sometimes you need that last-minute pressure to get something done.

Here is what I take away from today’s signing, some of which I’ll just proclaim and some of which I’ll do in question-answer form:

– Like any fair deal, both sides get something out of this and can claim something of a victory, while at the same time say they “gave up” something to the other side in a magnanimous gesture. The Avs can say “We kept our structure in place still. We’re still not paying anyone more than Matt Duchene (cap-hit wise) and yet we also came up on our offer and gave Ryan the same cap hit as Matt.”

O’Reilly can say: “They came up on their offer, and we gave something back too. We could have just said no and gone into arbo and maybe gotten $6.75 million, but we worked with Colorado to fit their structure better.”

– But O’Reilly can still be UFA in two years. Will this just be a sign-and-trade deal? Sakic says no, that the team still wants him long-term and will continue to pursue that goal (he can’t sign any extension for one full calendar year, however). Factually, the Avs could trade O’Reilly at any point in the next two years. Now, look, anything can happen in this game. Wayne Gretzky was traded by Edmonton once, for pete’s sake.

But I think this two-year deal means that there is no scenario in the near term in which the Avs would shop him around. I think this deal says “He’s off the market.” For at least a year anyway. I think this deal also enhances the odds that a long-term deal can be reached down the line, and here’s why:

– Because, for the first time since signing his mandatory rookie contract, O’Reilly can finally look at the Avs and say, “They paid me a dollar amount that they actually wanted to pay me, and that we both could agree upon. They weren’t forced to pay me by some outside entity, they did it of their own volition.”

One would hope, anyway, that this might mean a new-found feeling of respect toward both sides for future talks. Now, O’Reilly has proof that the Avs came up to meet him in the middle and are willingly paying him, along with Duchene, the highest cap-averaged salary on the team.

One would hope that O’Reilly takes that knowledge with him into the next contract negotiation and that it fosters in him more of a willingness to compromise, not to try and hold up the team for every last dollar, as that perception of him to fans was starting to build.

Of course, we still have yet to cross that bridge. This deal is still just a temporary bridge to that bridge. We still don’t have that, say, six-year, long-term deal most fans want to see. And maybe we never will. Maybe this is just playing out the string for two more years and/or being traded before that. Time will tell.

But, hey, it’s a start. And, bottom line, it’s a happy day for Avs fans. Because we all know O’Reilly is a tremendous player. Nobody wanted to see him go, nobody who cares about good hockey anyway. Sure, some might still say “Get rid of him while you still can, before he holds us up again in two years and leaves for nothing.”

I’m going to take a more optimistic stance now. The olive branch was extended today, and both sides grabbed on. For now, that’s good news. Take it away, John and Paul:

I’m very happy that Sakic and O’Reilly stepped up and got the deal done. Its my opinion that the foot dragging and bad feelings were caused by the previous management team, and that maybe Sherman has seen the handwriting on the wall. Sakic and Roy are the future of the Avs front office.

jpwheels

Great news! Strangely, I’ve had this hopeful little voice in my head the last couple of days telling me they’d work something out. And I’m also optimistic that this deal getting worked out points to an easier road in future negotiations.
I’ll let others with more knowledge of other player’s skill/production/salary hash out whether or not this deal is good value or not.
But, right now, I’m pretty damned happy with it!

Hank Mardukis

Sakic actually managed to make a bad situation worse. The new contract for O’Reilly now takes him to free agency and an extension can’t be worked out for a calendar year. By the time they can negotiate a new deal O’Reilly’s trade value will be significantly lower. If and when they decide O’Reilly won’t re-sign a long-term deal the number of teams looking to trade anything of value will be near nil. This is the going to end up like the Stastny situation where the Avs lose O’Reilly for nothing. They should have gone to arbitration, taken the one year deal and traded him as soon as they could find the right package.

foppa2118

There will still be teams willing to trade for him as a pending UFA, but they won’t want to give up any significant NHL roster players because they’ll be cup contending teams.

They’ll give up the standard pick, player, and prospect return, which isn’t terrible, but it likely won’t address an area of need properly.

The bigger problem will be that the Avs will be a contending team themselves then, and have already shown a willingness to lose a guy like Stastny for free.

They won’t be terribly happy with moving O’Reilly for futures when they’re trying to make the playoffs and win the cup in 2015-16.

They’ll want a good NHL roster player or two, and that is what will significantly limit the amount of returns they’re willing to consider.

They’ll most likely be a worse team no matter what for that season if they trade O’Reilly, and that is what makes it possible for them to have another Stastny situation.

Guest

Uh, no. Let’s assume your situation is what happened. It went to arbitration and the Avs have O’Reilly on a one year contract for $6M or whatever the arbitrator decided. How exactly does that improve O’Reilly’s trade value? Does a team really want a RFA without a contract and who has proved himself to be unwilling to negotiate? At best the team would get a player who is going to stick around one year (or two depending on the timing of the trade) before he hits the UFA market…which is exactly the situation the Avs are now in except a potential trade partner would have a guaranteed contract length and amount through 2016-17. Either way a trade partner knows O’Reilly is UFA after two years. At least with a contract in place a team does not have to risk whether or not they will even be able to come to terms with O’Reilly in his final RFA year. Again, your objection makes no sense.

Hank Mardukis

That is probably the worst response I’ve ever read to one of my posts.

Guest

Good one.

Smell the Glove

Challenge accepted.

http://marktavs.tumblr.com Mark T

1 one year arbitrated deal improves O’Reilly’s trade value because whoever trades for him can just re-sign him to his RFA tender value (based on what the arbitrator gives him) and thus get him for at least a season. No matter who trades for him and no matter what happened with this contract, they will have to deal with the difficulty of signing him to a long-term deal. I would assume though that any team trading for him would value him highly and thus be willing to may him more than the Avs are.

Guest

O’Reilly can always file for arbitration with the new team. Let’s assume O’Reilly has a year comparable or better to the one he did last year but is traded before the draft. The acquiring team can certainly offer O’Reilly a qualifying offer based on whatever the arbitrator decided or they can negotiate a long term contract. O’Reilly does not have to accept their offer and can elect salary arbitration. Again, assuming O’Reilly has a good year, he will still have a good case for a pay increase. At most, the team can elect for a two year deal. They are then stuck paying O’Reilly whatever the arbitrator says for one or two years only to lose him via UFA at the end (assuming a deal is not worked out). The point is: it’s asinine to claim that somehow O’Reilly’s trade value plummeted simply because he now as a two year contract instead of a one year deal. No matter what, the team acquiring O’Reilly will face UFA status by 2017. Sure, that may not matter to a team trying to make a playoff run or a team that knows they have the money to pay O’Reilly whatever he wants, but then that is just as true if O’Reilly is signed to a two year deal as he is currently.

http://marktavs.tumblr.com Mark T

What you seem to be missing is the key point that with the current deal, O’Reilly can’t be traded for a year, which means that by the time he can be traded he is guaranteed 1 year away from free agency and is thus pretty much a single season rental player.

If he was signed to a one year arbitrated deal he could be traded this very offseason. The team that gets him would then be guaranteed at least two years of hockey from him and plenty of time to try to work out a long-term deal. If they can’t get a long-term deal out of him, they could always trade him again at the deadline prior to him being a UFA and recoup some of the assets they gave up for him.

Yes, any team trading for him would have to deal with his potentially giving them a hard time too next offseason at contract time, but they would already have a pretty good idea of what they’d have to pay him because they would have done the trade after the arbitrator’s decision.

Jimbotronn

Where have you read that he can’t be traded for a year? That was true last season with all the Calgary offer sheet/team matching thing, but as of now he’s just a player under a regular contract. I think he could be traded tomorrow.

Gotcha. I do think it’s odd that he can’t sign an extension for a year, I wonder why they have that rule in place? Not sure what cap-shenanigans it’s designed to prevent.

http://marktavs.tumblr.com Mark T

I should say, since I deleted my earlier response, that you are completely correct. I was operating under the mistaken assumption that this deal somehow meant that he couldn’t be traded for a year.

foppa2118

He still held out to get paid $500k more than Duchene these next two years. PLUS he gets to hit UFA at 25 and make even more. That’s what he finally agreed to at the last second.

I give it less than a 1% chance he re-signs with the Avs, given everything he’s displayed the last two go arounds. There was no animosity, or the Avs slapping him in the face this time with how often Sakic and Roy went out of their way to publicly state how important he was and how much they value him.

He looks to create leverage for himself in negotiations, and takes full advantage of it. He wanted 3rd contract prices on his 2nd contract, and he wanted UFA prices on his RFA contract at age 23. What will he want when he actually is a pending UFA?

He won’t re-sign, he’ll wait for top dollar on the open market and ask the Avs to beat it if they want to keep him. Which they’d be stupid to most likely.

FlapJack

I just realized that O’Reilly is exactly the same kind of negotiator that he is a player.

He doesn’t have the innate talent or glamour stats, but he is a tenacious battler who fights for every last square inch of real estate and tries to wear down his opponents by never giving up or backing down. Oh, and he takes everything to heart when he doesn’t win.

http://marktavs.tumblr.com Mark T

My opinion exactly. Sakic can talk all he wants about signing O’Reilly to a long-term deal, but the way O’Reilly and his agent operate tells me the Avs would have to greatly overpay to keep him from going to free agency.

TheFunksGrove

I’m glad this didn’t go to Arb – although, I was very curious to see how it would turn out. But at the heart of things, I think Ryan and his agent realized that he was likely going to “lose” the hearing and 2 years at 6 million was a tactful compromise that gives him a raise, puts him level with Duchene, and helps his public image by suggesting his willing to compromise. I would be pleasantly surprised if this deal is more than shrewd PR/business work from both sides and turns into a long term contract. In my mind, if there’s a great trade out there that’ll bring us equal return on a winger or defenseman to pair with Johnson, then I’m all for it – rather than deal with this again.

Tdub

This Av’s fan is happy–congrats to Joe & Ryan for avoiding arb, a place where resentments are born. I prefer to remain positive about this deal leading to to an extension–ROR likes playing for Roy who has expressed his admiration for ROR’s 2 way game and who wouldn’t want to play on a team with a future superstar like Nathan. It’s all good for now.

http://marktavs.tumblr.com Mark T

I was writing a comment here, but it was getting too long. Instead I wrote a blog about it. Here’s why this is not a good deal for the Avs – O’Reilly is not worth as much as Duchene.

Yea, Dutchy scores more solo than O’Reilly. But show me bar graphs for take-aways, good defensive/break-out playmaking, and power-play kill stats, and O’Reilly would look more favorable. Look. We all would have liked to see a longer term commitment from O’Reilly. That’s not where he’s at, nor does it need to be. O’Reilly is one of the best players money can buy in the game right now, and his services are for sale. That’s just the simplicity of it. His heart isn’t in CO. Why would it? And I agree, I hate the tenacity of the negotiations, but it is just business… It’s a fair price, given the market. On the other hand, Dutchy is more of a franchise player, he likes CO (fly-fishing, etc.), and that’s why he took the bridge contract previously, and then when the time was right committed long term. He’s on board, and he loves it here, and that’s why we all love him as fans. Aside from both making the same $ amount here, you’re comparing apples and oranges. Enough comparing them. Just be happy we don’t have to play against Stas AND O’Reilly next season! Cool stats though. Interesting point you make.

http://marktavs.tumblr.com Mark T

It was pointed out to me in a comment that I didn’t consider the defensive size. I now plan to make another blog post considering that aspect.

And hey, thanks for the feedback! I’m new to this whole blogging thing so it’s good to hear from someone who read one of my posts :)

Well holy crap the saga ends. It’s a good sign they signed . I have mixed feelings about it. I am not unhappy with 6 million average. I think it will be based on how he does and what chemistry is in the locker room for him to hash out a 6 year deal in the next year or so.

Phrish

Thank god we resigned Mr. Just-Wants-To-Play-Hockey at just the right salary for a 23 year old who has never scored 30 goals in his career and never won a cup. Maybe in 2 years he’ll break the 30 goal barrier and demand Malkin or Kopitar type money… to just-play-hockey.

I used to be a big O’Reilly fan, but now I don’t give a s*** about him or his agent. Good player? Yes. Earned his contract yet? Nope. Maybe he’ll grow into his numbers, but he’s far from the class act I thought he was… that Duchene, Landy, and others definitely are.

usaf_SF91

I couldn’t say it any better. I loved the play style, work ethic, and his community attitude on the many occasions I met and talked to him. The hold out and back the Avalanche into a corner contract fiasco made me lose a huge amount of respect for him. When his dad chimed in it just made me think even less of him. For someone who always said, “I love Denver and love playing with this young team” every time we talked I now firmly believe it was all a show. Stastny wasn’t worth $6.6M per year and Ryan surely wasn’t worth $6.5M this past year. It’s now all about getting as much as he can as fast as he can without any loyalty to the team and organization who gave him his shot. His loyalty is in the “Almighty Dollar”. I haven’t spoken to him nor worn any of the jersey’ she signed in the first 3 yrs. in fact, they have all been put in a plastic tub and shoved in the basement along with the pucks and pics we had take within him and my family. I hope he goes nod gets traded to a bottom dwelling team just to realize how good he had it here and the ultimate insult would be to trade him and the pieces we get in return help the Avalanche win the Stanley Cup the year following his trade or if it’s at the trade deadline that year. He’s a very solid player, but take away the pieces that make him look really good on the ice and he’s no better than average and that’s being generous. Duchene, Landeskog, Mitchell, and a few more people who were on his line or on the PK or PP made him look good. He will leave hopefully by trade and he’ll be Paul Stastny Version 2.0

Just my .02 worth

Brennen

As long time Avs fan I am happy today. O’Reilly does help our team out and its great that they worked this out without the arb. Hopefully like Daters mentions this is a stepping stone to long-term relations.

chantalrouleau

I’m very happy this deal got done before the hearings. O’Reilly is a wonderful hockey player and has to be part of the Avalanche for a long time. Now, let’s hope the Avalanche, O’Reilly and his agent can work something out so we can now sign him, Barrie, MacKinnon and Johson long-term two years from now.

Chris DeMott

In the end, it was still just about the money for Ryan. By signing the 2 year deal for $6M he likely got as much as half a million more per year than he would have in arbitration. He also limited the risk of having a down year going into contract negotiations next year. And, took away any pressure to sign a long term deal as the Avs will have to wait a year to extend his contract. The Avalanche do gain some trade leverage as he is signed for two years, if they trade him soon. But, this is the part that baffles me. Does Joe think that they can get him at a discount in two years? I don’t see any reason to believe that would happen based on Ryan’s previous behavior. I also believe that Joe is an intelligent man and a man of his word. As reported, Joe’s word was this is not a “sign and trade” deal. So, is this Joe playing the “give me a chance to match the deal” game again? Stastny, part 2 — Ryan O’Reilly leaves for nothing. Or, is this Joe parsing the words “sign trade deal” and hoping that he will get an offer that is “too good to turn down”?

Smell the Glove

In an effort to focus on the positives, I will say this about O’Reilly- the dude puts it all out on the ice. So for all the squabbles and whatever you want to say about it, he plays hard and isn’t a problem for his team. I find it hard to say with confidence that he truly wants out of Denver (though it would appear) because he does play so hard for this team- which isn’t typical of a person unhappy in his surroundings. Some might even call that character (with a straight face.)

Cheers to that!

pascalp

Great news for the Avs. They could stay in the salary structure and pay O’Reilly what he wanted.
Now everyone can focus on the coming season and prepare for a great second year under Saint Patrick.

Welcome back, O’Reilly! I hope there is no more drama in the future, being that the Colorado Avalanche television series of contract negotiating was beginning to get higher ratings than the T.V. show, “Dallas.” (Deep sigh of relief for now!)

DNVR

Reflecting on this contract situation, I have come to the understanding that for Avalanche faithful, this is great news.

If in the upcoming season and a half O’Reilly assert himself as a elite NHL winger who can win defensive zone face-offs, who can play on the PP and PK and who can score 30 goals in making the Avalanche a better team; pay the man what he wants because we have a special versatile player on our hands.

If his production diminishes after a season and a half and he is playing like Stastny circa ’11-’12 trade him for young assets that will make the Avalanche a better team with more depth..maybe even a draft pick or two.

The only waythe Avalanche fans lose is if he is allowed to walk for nothing and the team is forced to backtrack to find a top 6 left winger to play with Duchene..

Terry Frei graduated from Wheat Ridge High School in the Denver area and has degrees in history and journalism from the University of Colorado-Boulder. He worked for the Rocky Mountain News while attending CU and joined the Post staff after graduation. He has also worked at the Oregonian in Portland, Ore., and The Sporting News. His seventh book, March 1939: Before the Madness, was issued in February 2014.

Chambers covers college and professional hockey for The Denver Post. He has written for the Post since 1994, after dumping his first 9-to-5 office job a couple years out of college. He primarily follows the University of Denver hockey team and helps cover the Avalanche.