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October 10, 2013

Big Story Weather – October 10, 2013

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redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from October 9:

The Mid-Atlantic dealt with strong onshore flow yesterday which brought heavy rainfall along with coastal flooding to the region. Heavy rains and snows started to fall over the Southern Rockies. Severe weather was null.

Big Story Weather Discussion for October 10:

Surface Map: Low pressure moving along the Mid-Atlantic will bring another day of rain, cool weather and strong onshore flow to the region which could lead to flooding. High pressure from Southeast Canada to the Gulf Coast will bring nice weather to the region. A powerful storm system will push into the Rockies bringing with it strong winds, heavy rainfall and more snowfall. The West Coast will enjoy tranquil weather.

Severe Weather: No severe weather forecasted today.

Winter Weather: The Rockies and the Black Hills will both see snowfall over the area. Snowfall amounts of 6-10 inches will be possible over the Rockies, while snowfall around 2-4 inches will be possible for the Black Hills.

Flooding: Snow melt over the Northern Plains could bring some river flooding. We are also watching for heavy rainfall over the desert Southwest which could lead to some flooding along with minor flooding over the Mid-Atlantic.

Tropical Weather: We are now watching a new invest that has pushed off the coast of Africa for potential tropical development The area has a medium chance of further development at this time. Winds are around 25kts and pressure is near 1009.

Winds: Very strong winds in excess of 50mph are going to be moving along the front from North Dakota to Texas. The area has a high wind watch out now.

Select City Forecast:

Boston MA: Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. High temps around 59F and overnight lows near 50F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches.

Memphis TN: Partly cloudy with a high near 74F and overnight lows near 66F.

Rapid City SD: Mostly cloudy with showers. High temps around 59F and overnight lows near 52F. Total rainfall around 1.50 inches. Flooding will be a concern for the region.

Salt Lake City UT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and a few snow showers as well. High temps around 52F and overnight lows near 46F. Total rainfall around 0.50 inches. Total snowfall around a Trace to 1 inch.

Portland OR: Partly cloudy and cool with a high near 54F and overnight lows near 49F.

October 10, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:

Latest Image: Tropical Cyclone Phailin is moving through the Bay of Bengal with a defined eye wall today.

Eastern Pacific Ocean: Low pressure moving into Alaska will bring showers and snow showers to the area. Low pressure moving into the Rockies will bring rain and snow as well as strong winds. Low pressure over the Pacific will continue to weaken.

Atlantic Ocean: Low pressure moving along the Mid-Atlantic will bring showers and gusty winds to the region along with coastal flooding. Low pressure moving towards Greenland will bring showers to the area. A tropical wave off the coast of Africa is being watched for possible tropical development. Low pressure moving over Western Europe will bring showers to the region and higher elevation snows. Low pressure moving across Germany will bring showers to the region.

Western Pacific: Typhoon Nari has winds around 65kts and pressure near 974mb as it tracks just to the south of Manila with a landfall expected in the next couple of days. Another tropical system is being watched over Guam for possible development. Winds are now around 20kts and pressure near 1004mb. Low pressure moving away from Japan will bring high seas to the area.

Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Phailin is moving through the Bay of Bengal with winds around 65kts and pressure near 974mb. The storm will make landfall over Eastern India in the next few days.

Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure moving through the basin with impacts being felt over Argentina with showers and also impacts being felt over Southern Africa with gusty winds. A third area of impact is over portions of Southern Australia with strong winds and showers.

Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for October 10-14:

Boston MA: Showers will impact the region over the next couple of days. The remainder of the period will be impact free.

Memphis TN: The area will start impact free. By the end of the period showers and thunderstorms will move into the region bringing a moderate impact to the area.

Rapid City SD: Showers will impact the region over the next couple of days. This will give way to partly cloudy skies and no impacts. The period will finish with more showers and another chance for impacts.

Salt Lake City UT: The region will have a few impacts today followed by a nice remainder of the period.

Portland OR: The area will enjoy the next five days impact free.

Climate Watch Almanac for October 5-9:

Boston MA: The period started with temps around 3 degrees above and then fell to around 3 degrees below before warming back up to around 4-13 degrees above normal and then finished the period around 3 degrees below normal.

Memphis TN: The period started around 10 degrees above normal and then fell to around 3-8 degrees below normal. The period finished around 1-2 degrees above normal.

Rapid City SD: The past five days have been well below normal starting the period around 15-30 degrees below normal followed by a slight warming trend to temps only 7-9 degrees below normal to finish the period.

Salt Lake City UT: The period started with temps around 2-12 degrees below normal and then warmed to around 1-7 degrees for the remainder of the period.

Portland OR: The period started with temps around 4-6 degrees above and then fell to around 5-8 degrees below normal before finishing the period around 5 degrees below normal.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 10, 2013:

Day 1-3: Low pressure moving along the East Coast will bring showers, gusty winds and coastal surge to the region from New York to Baltimore. High pressure will dominate the weather from Southeast Canada to the Gulf Coast. A new powerful winter storm will push into the Plains bringing snow to higher elevations of the Rockies and Black Hills along with heavy rainfall and strong winds from North Dakota to Texas. High pressure will keep the West dry. Day two the coastal low will work its way into New York bringing another day of heavy rainfall and strong winds to the region. High pressure will begin to break down over the Ohio River Valley and the Gulf Coast. Low pressure will move into Canada with a cold front trailing over the Western Lakes. The West will enjoy another nice day. The period will finish with a weak low pressure area developing over Southern Texas.

Day 4-7: The period will begin with high pressure along the East Coast. The storm system from Texas will push into the Central Plains bringing strong to severe thunderstorms to the region. The West will enjoy another nice day. Day five high pressure will be along both coasts as the powerful storm system moves through the Plains bringing rain, snow and some severe weather to the region. Day six will have the strong storm system extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. There will be rain and snow showers over the Great Lakes along with some severe weather over the Gulf Coast. High pressure will build in over the Rockies. The period will finish with the low pressure and frontal boundary moving into the Ohio River Valley along with the Gulf Coast bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Day 8-12: The period will start with low pressure along the East Coast bringing another round of showers to the region. High pressure will be over the rest of the country. Day nine a few wrap around snow showers will be possible over the Great Lakes, while high pressure will be in the Southeast and the Plains. A powerful storm system will be moving towards the Pacific Northwest. Day ten a monster low will begin to impact the Pacific Northwest with strong winds, heavy rainfall and even mountain snows. The period will finish with high pressure over the East Coast. A new low pressure moving out of Texas will bring another round of strong to severe storms to the region. The powerful low pressure will bring heavy rains along with strong winds to the West Coast.

Long Range Outlook: The period will start with high pressure over the Northeast. A strong storm system in the Plains will provide the region with showers, snow showers and thunderstorms. The majority of the West will see heavy rainfall as well. The middle of the period we will have a huge storm system impacting a large part of the country with snow, rain, severe weather. The period will finish very active.

Today's Spotlight Cities Forecast:

Buffalo NY: Partly cloudy with high temps around 66F and overnight lows near 52F. Friday partly cloudy with a high near 67F and overnight lows near 54F. Saturday Partly cloudy with a high near 72F and overnight lows near 51F. Sunday partly cloudy with a high near 66F and overnight lows near 55F. Monday partly cloudy with a high near 64F and overnight lows near 50F.

Fargo ND: Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. High temps around 72F and overnight lows near 58F. Total rainfall around 1 inch. Friday cloudy with showers. High temps around 64F and overnight lows near 44F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches. Saturday partly cloudy and cool with a high near 55F and overnight lows near 39F. Sunday partly cloudy with a high near 55F and overnight lows near 42F. Monday cloudy cool and rainy with a high near 47F and overnight lows near 40F. Total rainfall near 0.45 inches.

San Diego CA: Partly cloudy with a high near 63F and overnight lows near 59F. Friday partly cloudy with a high near 66F and overnight lows near 60F. Saturday partly cloudy with a high near 67F and overnight lows near 59F. Sunday partly cloudy with a high near 65F and overnight lows near 60F. Monday partly cloudy with a high near 68F and overnight lows near 64F.

Ask The Weatherman for October 10, 2013:

Question: What parcel is heavier - a dry parcel or a wet parcel?

Answer: To answer this question we need to think about weight. A dry parcel has less weight than a wet parcel. This is why on a sunny day no parcels are falling. Wet parcels are heavy and this is the reason we have rainy days as these parcels get too heavy in the atmosphere and fall to the earth’s surface.

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Green Energy Weather Report for October 10, 2013:

Wave Energy: There will be extreme amounts of energy from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast and moderate amounts along the Southeast coast. The Gulf Coast will see little amounts of energy. The entire West Coast will have moderate amount of energy.

Hydro Energy: There will be moderate amounts of both short term and long term energy over the Rockies and also into the Northern Plains. There will be short term energy over the Mid-Atlantic region.

Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of solar energy from the Southeast to the Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. There will also be ample amounts of energy over the Pacific Northwest.

Wind Energy: The strongest wind energy today will be found over the Plains along the cold front and also over the Mid-Atlantic near the coastal low.

October 10 Weather and Your Wallet (Sioux Falls SD):

A warm front will begin to push towards the area bringing increased clouds with a chance for thunderstorms overnight along with very breezy southeast winds.

Dining: There should be no issues outside of the wind to enjoy lunch at the park.

Transportation: There will be some impacts throughout the day to high profile vehicles and then during the overnight as thunderstorms move into the region.

Shopping: Hold on to your hats today. It will be breezy but there should be no major impacts through the day.

Electricity: There will be a small window this afternoon of cooling with the forecast for 2CDD’s.

Yard Work: Today will be breezy, but a good chance to get the yard ready for winter.

Construction: Today will be a challenging day for any outdoor working projects due to the strong winds.

Outdoor Venues: This morning and afternoon will be an excellent chance to take a walk at Falls Park.