A secret U.S. diplomatic cable written six years ago (and
tweeted by Wikileaks on Tuesday) foreshadowed much of the
tension between Russia and the U.S. over Ukraine.

Detailing the possibility of admitting Ukraine into NATO on Feb.
1, 2008, then-U.S. Ambassador William Burns wrote that such a
move would touch "a raw nerve" with Russia that would engender
"serious concerns about the consequences of stability in the
region."

"NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains ‘an
emotional and neuralgic’ issue for Russia, but strategic policy
considerations also underlie strong opposition to NATO membership
for Ukraine and Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the
issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to
violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia
to decide whether to intervene," the cable read.

Massive protests swept Ukraine in early February, resulting in
the replacement of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych with a
government more closely-aligned with western interests. Not long
after, Russian troops intervened, seizing key government
buildings in Ukraine's Crimea, which Russia later annexed.

On Sunday, the eastern Ukraine cities of Donetsk and Luhansk
voted to break away to form independent states, moving the
country dangerously close to civil war, The Washington
Post reports.

The 2008 cable is remarkably prescient, detailing complex
factors, such as the split between ethnic-Russians against
Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia being pushed to possibly
intervene to avoid a perception of U.S.-E.U. "encirclement" with
its regional influence being undermined.

"It is also politically popular
to paint the U.S. and NATO as Russia's adversaries and to use
NATO's outreach to Ukraine and Georgia as a means of generating
support from Russian nationalists," the cable reads. "While
Russian opposition to the first round of NATO enlargement in the
mid-1990's was strong, Russia now feels itself able to respond
more forcefully to what it perceives as actions contrary to its
national interests."

More recently, a Kremlin official reiterated this stance to the
U.S. during the protests in February — accusing it of
arming the rebels in what he called an attempted coup —
telling Reuters that "interference" in Ukraine was a breach
of a 1994 treaty between the U.S. and Russia.

"And what the Americans are getting up to now, unilaterally and
crudely interfering in Ukraine's internal affairs, is a clear
breach of that treaty," he said.