That is the first thing which should be said about the events of the past week which have left two Liberal Democrats sat at home twiddling their thumbs and wondering what the future holds.

The second thing is that it’s also a personal tragedy for those involved. While the Cardiff Bay bubble a-whispers and a-speculates, two probably decent men with wives and mortgages, who have quit their jobs, look almost certain to have lost everything.

That factor is lost in the palpable glee among some of their rivals at the Lib Dems’ woes. There’s something odd about some Labour figures, who rallied around to say what a great bloke former Lib Dem AM Mick Bates was when he threatened a hospital worker with a pair of scissors, practically demanding Aled Roberts and John Dixon be sent to the Tower for failing to fill in a form properly.

But that’s politics. As is John Bufton, the usually anonymous Ukip MEP for Wales, making a complaint to the police. Is this about anything other than increasing profile or is he really worried there’s going to be a crime wave of members of the Care Council for Wales running for the Assembly? The problem for the Lib Dems now, however, is that it is very difficult to see how they can get out of this mess.

The option seemingly available to them earlier in the week was to get a majority of members to vote in the Senedd to disregard the disqualifications. Labour scuppered it then for a variety of reasons, not all honourable.

The Assembly can hardly be seen to vote to ignore the rules when two of its own members are under police investigation. And besides, there is a very good argument that it would hardly play well with the public for the Fourth Assembly’s first act being to let back in two AMs who by their own admission had broken the rules. Their best hope is that the police come back and say there are no grounds to proceeds. But that’s not much use because, firstly, that’s going to take several months during which time only a rump of three Lib Dems will be sat in the Senedd.

And secondly, we know they did it. Yes, any punishment is unlikely to be severe. But enough to render any chance of them retaking their seats out of the question.

The question is when, not if, the pair are forced to stand down and allow the number two candidates on the list to take their places.

This is not an ideal scenario for Kirsty Williams. The number two in South Wales Central is Eluned Parrott, a fairly obscure figure who wouldn’t have thought she had a snowball in Hell’s chance of being elected. Worse, in North Wales it is Eleanor Burnham, who lost her seat two weeks ago and blames Ms Williams for not giving her a decent committee chairmanship and thus a higher profile. There is no love lost between the two.

But it now seems inevitable after an absolute farrago which nobody comes out of looking good – not the hapless Lib Dem AMs, not Labour and not the Assembly Commission or Electoral Commission, who must take some blame.

At least one thing’s for certain – it’s never going to happen again...