There were only 3 CW shows that were likely or certain to be renewed last week and this week all three were renewed. That isn't great news for any of the CW shows on the bubble, but it isn't really any worse news eitherand Gossip Girl, Hart Of Dixie, The Secret Circle and Nikita remain bubble shows. I'm sure all four shows won't be cancelled, but I'd be pretty surprised if all four shows were renewed.

I don't know what Nikita's international sales, online viewing really are, but despite its horrible ratings, it's on Friday and still on the bubble. Fans should hope the hard-to-substantiate reports of Nikita's international prowess are true because a renewal for one more season all but guarantees that it will be renewed for another season after that to get it to syndication.

Saturday came reports that ABC is in early talks with TBS about taking Cougar Town off of ABC's hands. That's potentially good news for fans, but bad news when it comes to the show's prospects on ABC. I'm not quite as pessimistic as Bill that the TBS talks mean de facto cancellation on ABC. But it clearly indicates that while ABC Studios wants to get the show to enough episodes for syndication, the ABC broadcast network would be plenty happy for someone else to take on that task.

It'd be hard to fault ABC for feeling that way since the ratings have been terrible and it has several middling-rated (but better rated than Cougar Town) comedies to choose from for schedule padding.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. Besides, no matter what anyone at ABC says, reasonable people know with certainty that Pan Am isn't coming back next season.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

I’m sure all four shows won’t be cancelled, but I’d be pretty surprised if all four shows were renewed.

Given their financial constraints, I think that TheCW will try to stagger out the cancellations. Renew one or two of their worse preforming shows for a last season with the intend of replacing them mid-season with new series.

Secret Circle probably has the best chance out of all 4 bubble shows and if renewed will likely air Fridays at 9 after Supernatural. I think Nikita is dead only because it has 2 seasons and needs 2 more and The CW may not be willing to go that far for a low rated series. HOD is likely to return though I wouldn’t be surprised if CW just axed it and Gossip Girl will return for a final 13 ep season. Ringer is dead and LA Complex will air its second season elsewhere.

Ram510

@Brandy

Where are all your prediction based off of? Why would you think that Nikita would get a .2 or even a 0.0? It’s been really consistent all year and clearly has a strong following. if anything I would think ANTM or GG would hit a .2 first especially if it were in friday and GG has been dangerously close to below 1 million viewers.

A .4 isn’t good but a lot of CW shows have hit a .5 that only a tenths difference the whole CW is woeful bottom line so I dont see how any of it’s bubble shows can be singled out at this point

OMG

ABC is really freaking me out. I mean some shows are more likely to be renewed than others, but there is no certainty. I think the ABC network executives have been really wrecking up their brains in terms of not only renewals, but also time slots.

zerg

@Jenny

If the show gets canceled could another network pick it up? I would love to see Hart Of Dixie on CBS and watch the ratings soar.

Oh god…

Sid

Call me biased all you want but I still think Hart of Dixie should be cancelled. It appears that Gossip Girl was secretly renewed over the weekend and with Deadline and THR reporting The Carrie Diaries and Cult as certain pickups, that’s 3 shows for Josh and Stephanie( I really despise these two). I’ll say it again, a network that only provides 10 hours of programming doesn’t to go give four away to them. Hart of Dixie needs to be cancelled. If it was getting ratings like TVD or SPN, then it could get 13 more episodes but it isn’t.

Michael

“Hart of Dixie needs to be cancelled. If it was getting ratings like TVD or SPN, then it could get 13 more episodes but it isn’t.”

fingers crossed that both GCB and scandal get renewed. they may be on the lower-rated side, but they’re well-received and stable and not on declining sprees like the other failed dramas were. they’ve got potential.

and i’d be jumping for joy is TBS saved cougar town! will we find out about that also by may 15?

SmG

would you mind joining the Q & A party? Can you give us any deets about your meeting with the network & yes we know u had 1

CS: It went very well – I can tell u they all want u to watch online even more ! http://cw.com

what about Netflix and GetGlue ratings?

CS: All excellent but they want it to translate into those online views!

These are from @sesfonstein twitter. If this is really the showrunner of Nikita, Craig Silverstein says his meeting with CW about his pitch “went very well”.

Bunny

I wonder if ABC is taking long with renewal announcement because of the contract negotiations with the cast of Modern Family and Grey’s Anatomy..

Danimals

HoD and Nikita do have a better chance than TSC because besides Ringer, TSC has the biggest drop in ratings since its debut. HoD did well in the Fall and have been up and down since. While Nikita has been steady. So I say, Certain that two of the shows on the bubble will be renewed with gossip girl being one of them, the real question is going to be Heart of Dixie or Nikita?

Listen Michael, I’m going to ask you nicely to please refrain from replying to my post. I’m sick and tired of you calling me names and trust me if I end up saying something back, not only will I make you cry like the little sensitive person you are, but I will get banned. So please, stay the hell away from me because you don’t know how to be civil.

Jessie

I really think Nikita is done. It’s been given so many chances and yet it’s still performing with subpar ratings, I don’t see it making it this time.

Oliver

It depends how you define “cancelled”. I think this news makes it more likely that Cougar Town will have more seasons, but it’s another question as to where they will be aired.

I’m surprised you still have Last Man Standing as “Likely to be renewed” given its recent ratings. Its ratings are poor (last two originals got 1.6 and 1.5), ABC has a hell of a lot of better-rated comedies, it’s out of place tonally, and it’s years away from syndication. I wouldn’t be too surprised if ABC axes LMS and Fox picks it up.

Fabio

Just met Shepard, Pellegrino, Padalecki, Misha and all cast of Supernatural and it was so fun cause i asked them how they got the news the show had been renewed and they all cracked me up and it was no surprise for them at all. They are amazing people

LOL

As far as CBS (yes CW isn’t the only network), if there is another comedy hour, both CSI’s are history, if not ROE and Rob could be history, and yes IMOO.

IMOO, ABC could be the surprise network this year and blow viewers minds. For this network, is low 2s and high ls good enough, again this is the same outfit that has The Avengers, and the Disney’s World in a recovering economy. Again how much of this is a mind set for ABC, we are renewing shows in the NBC demos this spring. Again IMOO, ABC could go nuts this year, and think their pilots are better, and could spring hits like OAAT this year.

SJ

Final predictions, as I’m pretty sure we’ll know most of the renewals and cancellations by this time next week:

Body of Proof – only renewed if ABC wants to try Friday scripted programming again (13 episodes)
GCB – renewed for 13
Scandal – cancelled
Private Practice – renewed for final season, to start in the fall; episode order TBD
Cougar Town – cancelled, at least on ABC
All other comedies renewed for full seasons

Harry’s Law – cancelled
Up All Night – renewed for 13
Whitney – renewed for a full season
30 Rock, Community, The Office, Parks – renewed for final seasons

CSI: NY – cancelled
CSI: Miami – renewed for 18, final season (although doubtful that CBS will announce it as such)
Rules – renewed for 13
Rob – renewed for 13 only if new comedy pilots suck

Touch – cancelled
Napoleon Dynamite – cancelled
Bob’s Burgers – on the 2012-2013 schedule one way or another