Tuesday, December 11, 2012

2012 A.L. Outfielders

Once upon a time, American
League-only fantasy owners spent a big chunk of their money on their outfields.
Those days are disappearing.

Ten Most Expensive A.L.
Outfielders 2012

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

1

Jacoby
Ellsbury

$11

36

-25

35

36

37

36

$45

2

Curtis
Granderson

$24

32

-8

36

29

32

29

$37

3

B.J.
Upton

$26

30

-5

30

28

33

20

$26

4

Desmond
Jennings

$20

26

-6

26

25

27

26

$13

5

Brett
Gardner

$2

26

-24

28

25

25

24

$25

6

Adam
Jones

$30

26

4

29

23

25

26

$24

7

Josh
Hamilton

$33

25

7

24

26

26

25

$26

8

Nelson
Cruz

$21

25

-4

25

26

25

24

$21

9

Shin-Soo
Choo

$25

24

1

25

23

24

24

$11

10

Alex
Gordon

$24

24

0

23

23

25

22

$31

Average

$22

27

-6

28

26

28

26

$26

The $27 average salary for
the 10 most expensive outfielders in the American League is lower than it has
been since I started using expert league average salaries in 2008. Perhaps this
is less of an under pay and more of a course correction. The range of earnings
on these hitters since 2009 (when I started using 5x5 values) is between
$21-23. The market isn't getting more conservative; it's coming closer to
paying these hitters what they ultimately wind up earning.

The expert market (CBS,
LABR, and Tout Wars) almost always gives the most expensive hitters a raise. In
2012, A.L. outfielders got their raise reluctantly. As a group, that is. On a hitter-by-hitter
basis, the market either mostly shelled out big raises or slashed prices with
sizable pay cuts.

Ellsbury, Granderson, and
Gordon all received pay cuts of $5 or more. All three hitters were players that
had exceeded their prior career norms by a good deal and weren't expected to it
again. The market's prudence looked (mostly) reasonable in late March/early
April and turned out to be completely justified.

Upton, Jennings, Cruz, and
Choo all received raises of $4 or more. This group was a mix of the market
anticipating an injury bounce back and/or expecting an age/experience related
performance spike. The results in this case were mixed. The market almost
nailed Choo perfectly; it had the right idea with Jennings, but probably should
have hung back on Cruz and Upton. To be fair with Upton, his early season
injury did change the equation.

Ellsbury and Gardner's
severe injuries were good for $49 of the $64 or so dollars lost. In fact, $72 was
lost among the Top Five hitters, with every one of the five losing at least $5.
The next five hitters made a modest profit of $8 total, with only Cruz losing
money. So is that the key? Avoid the really big-ticket
outfielders and you're golden?

Next Ten (11-20) Most
Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2012

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

11

Carl
Crawford

$6

23

-17

23

23

23

19

$16

12

Ichiro
Suzuki

$24

23

1

23

21

24

21

$24

13

Nick
Swisher

$20

19

1

20

17

21

18

$19

14

Delmon
Young

$15

19

-5

20

21

17

19

$13

15

Peter
Bourjos

$3

19

-16

19

17

22

16

$19

16

Coco
Crisp

$23

19

4

17

19

20

20

$25

17

Nick
Markakis

$16

18

-2

19

17

18

20

$21

18

Brennan
Boesch

$10

18

-8

21

17

16

16

$17

19

Jeff
Francoeur

$9

18

-8

19

17

17

16

$27

20

Torii
Hunter

$26

17

9

16

18

18

16

$19

Average

$15

19

-4

20

19

20

18

$20

Nope. You would have
stepped in your share of misfortune with Bourjos and Crawford.

In these two charts, most
of the losses you're looking are from four of the 10 biggest A.L.-only hitter
busts in 2012. These four hitters lost $82 combined. This isn't unprecedented -
Ellsbury and Grady Sizemore lost $62 combined in 2010 - but it
does make this group of hitters look worse than they actually were. These 20
hitters produced $368 worth of value...or 18% of the value that all of the
auctioned A.L. hitters produced in 2012. Profits are important, but you need
stats to win.

The only reason you would
lay off of the hitters at the top is if there was more value coming later.

Next 10 (21-30) Most
Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2012

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

21

Austin
Jackson

$25

17

8

17

16

18

17

$17

22

Alex
Rios

$33

17

16

16

18

16

18

$10

23

Matt
Joyce

$12

16

-4

16

19

13

16

$21

24

Alejandro
De Aza

$22

16

7

17

15

15

13

$11

25

Josh
Willingham

$24

15

9

16

14

15

16

$19

26

Yoenis
Cespedes

$25

14

11

13

15

15

11

27

Ben
Revere

$24

14

10

13

16

13

15

$17

28

Colby
Rasmus

$13

14

-1

12

16

14

16

$11

29

Lorenzo
Cain

$9

14

-5

12

13

17

11

$0

30

Denard
Span

$17

13

4

14

12

13

16

$6

Average

$20

15

5

15

15

15

15

$11

This is Exhibit A as to why
you might want to lay off of some of the top outfielders. Those top guys are
good, but there was a lot of talent to go around in American
League outfields in 2012.

Imagine a scenario where
you purchased Jackson, Joyce, and Cespedes. For your $47 in salary, you would
have picked up $62 in stats.

This is cherry picking, of
course. Yet a $5 per player profit is exactly what happened. Seven of the 10
hitters in this group turned a profit.

These 30 outfielders earned
$572...or 27% of what all auctioned hitters in the American League earned in
2012. They were paid more than that as a group, but the challenge is that while
you want value you have to buy stats.

And unless you hit a very
specific jackpot, the stats weren't there unless you spent some money.

Top 10 A.L. Outfielders
2012

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

CBS

LABR

TW

PK

2011

1

Mike
Trout

$47

6

40

7

8

4

5

$4

2

Alex
Rios

$33

17

16

16

18

16

18

$10

3

Josh
Hamilton

$33

25

7

24

26

26

25

$26

4

Adam
Jones

$30

26

4

29

23

25

26

$24

5

Torii
Hunter

$26

17

9

16

18

18

16

$19

6

B.J.
Upton

$26

30

-5

30

28

33

20

$26

7

Yoenis
Cespedes

$25

14

11

13

15

15

11

8

Austin
Jackson

$25

17

8

17

16

18

17

$17

9

Shin-Soo
Choo

$25

24

1

25

23

24

24

$11

10

Curtis
Granderson

$24

32

-8

36

29

32

29

$37

Average

$29

21

8

21

20

21

19

$17

Trout is an exception on so
many levels. Forget about earning $47, rookies tend to struggle right out of
the gate. It's great that Trout had the season that he did, but in a
non-keeper, betting that he would have that season was a
foolish proposition.

Were there profits at the
bottom of the barrel? Certainly. Ten of the 17 American League hitters that
turned a double-digit profit in 2012 were outfielders. And six of the 10 A.L.
free agents that earned $10 or more were outfielders.

However, the value created
by the profit-makers at the bottom of the heap doesn't mean that you only want
to concentrate on those hitters. Among the most profitable outfielders, only
Michael Saunders, Jonny Gomes, and Andy Dirks cost $3 or less. Everyone else
cost more...including some of the outfielders highlighted on the charts above.

There's nothing wrong with
hoping for a bargain. But when there is this much value to be had at the top of
the charts, you had better spend at least some of your auction dollars on this
portion of your roster.

I’d go one step further and
argue that you can spend more on the top outfielders because there are
so many cheap/free options at the position. You’re more likely to hit on a $10+
free agent in the outfield than you are anywhere else.

Conventional wisdom says to
pay extra for Joe Mauer because he’s light years better than Francisco
Cervelli. But if Mauer gets hurt, not only do you get nothing from Mauer but
you almost definitely won’t get anything from his replacement either. When
Crawford went down last year, you had some opportunities to replace him with a
non-zero. Maybe you got Michael Saunders or Nate McLouth. Maybe you didn’t, but
at least the opportunity was there to pick up some stats.