I projected him at 25, and I like to think I project conservatively. I remember getting excited about a 20 year old Jason Heyward a few years ago, and he still hasn't crossed the 30 HR threshold yet. He's obviously a rare talent, but it's easy to forget sometimes it takes a little bit for younger guys to max out their power ability.

cordscords wrote:I projected him at 25, and I like to think I project conservatively. I remember getting excited about a 20 year old Jason Heyward a few years ago, and he still hasn't crossed the 30 HR threshold yet. He's obviously a rare talent, but it's easy to forget sometimes it takes a little bit for younger guys to max out their power ability.

Harper has a much higher power tool than Heyward and Heyward was a heavy groundball guy his first year so there was no reason to expect 30. It is really hard to hit 30 HR when you hit the ball on the ground 55% of the time like Heyward did as a rookie. Heyward played full time and hit 18 HR as a rookie, Harper missed a month and hit 22. I don't think it is as simple a comparison as you are making it out to be.

cordscords wrote:I projected him at 25, and I like to think I project conservatively. I remember getting excited about a 20 year old Jason Heyward a few years ago, and he still hasn't crossed the 30 HR threshold yet. He's obviously a rare talent, but it's easy to forget sometimes it takes a little bit for younger guys to max out their power ability.

Harper has a much higher power tool than Heyward and Heyward was a heavy groundball guy his first year so there was no reason to expect 30. It is really hard to hit 30 HR when you hit the ball on the ground 55% of the time like Heyward did as a rookie. Heyward played full time and hit 18 HR as a rookie, Harper missed a month and hit 22. I don't think it is as simple a comparison as you are making it out to be.

As I said I project conservatively. 30 HR wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, just giving some pause for concern for owners who are banking on that threshold being reached.