Will the Houston Texans go for the most exciting quarterback in the draft, Johnny Manziel, with the first overall pick? / Andrew Richardson, USA TODAY Sports

by Jarrett Bell, USA TODAY Sports

by Jarrett Bell, USA TODAY Sports

That's not merely a mantra in NFL Draft war rooms at this of year. It is like a golden rule, defining principle and martial law for the big-time decision-makers on the clock.

Conceivably.

The Houston Texans, with the top pick in the draft burning in GM Rick Smith's hands, have this truth-or-dare dilemma that challenges the whole concept of honoring the board.

I dare you to open the draft by selecting Johnny Manziel.

Lord knows, the Texans need some Johnny Football. The NFL is a passing league now, which is a reason Bill O'Brien is the new coach, and Manziel can sure sling it. He's the most exciting quarterback in the draft, a rock star with the added value of making Bob McNair's easy-to-ignore franchise matter on the national scene like it never has.

Sure, Manziel - not built as solidly as another short quarterback with whom he is compared, Russell Wilson - looks as though he can be snapped in half by one Gregg Williams-designed double blitz.

But hey, there's always risk.

And with risk, there's the possibility of reward - or heartbreak.

One thing for sure: If the Texans were to snag Manziel with the top pick, it will be open season for criticism because that's the slot seemingly reserved for pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney.

Taking Manziel might even cause an earthquake, with the epicenter at Radio City Music Hall in New York. Passing on Clowney might shake the foundation of the draft process as we know it.

You know McNair can already feel tremors. McNair founded the franchise and can't forget how its inaugural pick in 2002 of quarterback David Carr backfired.

During an interview with Fox26 in Houston, McNair called Clowney the top player in the draft, but added, "If he's a quarterback and the best player, it's easy, but that's not the case.

"So can that defensive player have a greater impact on the success of your team that one of these quarterbacks? It's not a sure thing that he is."

Clowney has emerged as the safe pick at No. 1, despite just posting three sacks last season for South Carolina. That itself says so much about his out-of-the-world potential.

There are 32 big boards across the NFL and even in an environment overflowing with smokescreens and propaganda, the consensus is that Clowney is at the top of most, if not all of the boards.

That's why a draft-and-trade scenario might make the most sense. That worked out for the San Diego Chargers in 2004. They drafted Eli Manning in the top slot, then dealt him to the New York Giants, who filled San Diego's need by selecting Philip Rivers fourth overall.

In 2001, the Chargers handled it in another manner. They traded out of the top spot to allow the Falcons to draft Michael Vick, then in the fifth spot that was originally Atlanta's, landed LaDainian Tomlinson. With the pick gained from Atlanta, the Chargers opened Round 2 by filling their quarterback need with Drew Brees.

No wonder Smith declared during a pre-draft press conference last week that he knew exactly who he wanted to draft ... and also that he is open for the business of talking trades.

Of course he is.

Maybe Atlanta will be the team to leap to the top spot for Clowney. Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff, slotted sixth, moved up 20 slots to draft Julio Jones in 2011. You know he'd pull the trigger again.

The Falcons don't need a quarterback. They need Clowney.

Houston can parlay their slot into more picks, although they could also run the risk of not getting Manziel if moving back to, say, the sixth slot.

Sure, Houston could very well draft Clowney, turn him over to D-coordinator Romeo Crennel, put him on the same unit that already features maybe the league's best D-lineman in J.J. Watt, and watch quarterbacks quiver on a week-to-week basis. Maybe.

Clowney blazed to a 4.53-second clocking in the 40-yard dash at the combine that was faster than the fleet-footed Manziel's time (4.68), so imagine that speed coming off the edge on third-and-long.

The Texans can draft Clowney, then grab a quarterback with the first pick of the second round - I'm still not buying that Teddy Bridegwater will fall that far, but there's a logjam of arms out there with potential - and build from there.

But what if Manziel becomes the next Brett Favre? The Texans would rue that for years.

Yeah, it's an inexact science. Think of all the teams that honored their boards and passed on Watt, who wasn't chosen until the 11th pick in 2011.

Besides, the board on Thursday night won't look like the 20-20 hindsight board in a few months or years. Boards are so fluid. After the fact, they never look like they should have.

That's why the Texans' decision really needs to hinge on whether their evaluation has concluded that Manziel is a bonafide franchise quarterback. The opinions on that run the gamut, but the best-case view is he is a star in the making. If the Texans agree, they should adjust their board accordingly.

If not, so be it. Take Clowney, and let the chips fall.

What they can't do is talk themselves out of taking Manziel - if they see him as a potential star - because he's not their top overall prospect and they are being true to their board.

It's a league driven by great quarterbacks. They need to draft with that in mind.

Jerry Jones insists the Dallas Cowboys are not in the market to draft a quarterback, even with 33-year-old Tony Romo coming off his second back surgery.

But smokescreen or not, Jones is bullish on Johnny Manziel.

"He's a great player," Jones told USA TODAY Sports. "That's about all I can say. That covers everything. He's rare."

Well, surely that's not all that Jones can say.

If Manziel somehow fell to the Cowboys slot at 16th in the first round, how tough of a decision would it be for Jones to either draft or pass on Johnny Football?

"It would be very unexpected that he reach where we are, even though you could say, 'You guys always do it, you could go up ... '" Jones said, pondering a trade scenario.

This prompts Jones to recall his biggest draft-day regret - passing on Randy Moss in 1998. The Cowboys selected defensive end Greg Ellis with the eight pick overall, while Moss, saddled by character concerns, slid all the way down to the 21st slot and the Minnesota Vikings.

"I made the mistake of passing on Randy Moss," Jones said. "We got a good player in Greg Ellis, but Randy Moss was there and I'll never forget Jason's daddy stood in the back of the room and said, 'Man, this is pro football. I've never seen one this good. How can we go past him?' Of course, at the time, we were trying to get a little better perception of our behavior."

Now it's a matter of developing a better perception of winning.

Extra points

â?¢ Three Alabama players could be selected in the first round, with safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, linebacker C.J. Mosely and perhaps tackle Cyrus Kouandjio in the mix. Just don't call them can't-miss picks. For all of the success of the Crimson Tide, the first-round misses in recent years - Trent Richardson, James Carpenter and Rolando McClain among them - have been glaring.

â?¢ Eric Fisher embodied a success story when the Kansas City Chiefs picked him No. 1 overall in last year's draft out of Central Michigan of the Mid-American Conference. If Fisher - who struggled as a rookie - were in this deep draft he likely would be rated no higher than the fourth-best tackle behind Greg Robinson, Taylor Lewan and Jake Matthews.

â?¢ Wide receiver is arguably the deepest position in the draft, which makes it a lot tougher for teams to trade into the top to select Clemson's Sammy Watkins, the top-rated receiver. By some counts, as many as seven receivers will be taken in the first round. Besides, the most productive receiver in the draft could ultimately turn out to Southern Cal's Marquise Lee - projected as a mid- to late-round pick.