Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 14, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Fringe (F)

final season

0.47

The Mob Doctor

0.54

Ben And Kate

0.80

Raising Hope

0.80

The Mindy Project

0.95

Bones

1.00

The Cleveland Show

1.01

Bob's Burgers

(renewed 10/16)

1.13

American Dad

already renewed

1.17

Glee

1.21

New Girl

1.27

Family Guy

already renewed

1.54

The Simpsons

already renewed

1.58

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10/16 PM update: No surprise that Bob's Burgers has been renewed for a fourth season.
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With another in my series of "third season shows produced by their network are guaranteed a fourth season" prediction moves, Raising Hope is now predicted as "certain to be renewed" even with its somewhat weak early ratings. While the syndication gods ruling Fox aren't quite as predictable as those ruling CBS, it would take nothing short of a cataclysm to prevent the show from getting a fourth season.

The fact that Ben And Katereceived a full season order shouldn't give too much comfort to its fans. Assuming Fox wants to keep 2 hours of comedies on Tuesday, and that New Girland Raising Hope will return next season, at a minimum, the lower rated of Ben And Kate and The Mindy Projectis currently in danger of cancellation.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2013

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013

- certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Remember the days when NBC wouldn’t give sitcoms with only 20 million viewers a full season pickup?

Justin121

I think Ben & Kate can grow into renewable territory.

However, with the upcoming Goodwin Games, FOX will already have 4 comedies.

Then again, they may not want to stick with Hope beyond next year, so Ben & Kate will get a just-in-case renwal.

Dodge Hickey

The Syndication Gods are having fun and we are only 5 weeks into the new season!

Kevin

Why bobs burgers!! That’s a stupid show. I watched a few episodes of the first season and its disgusting and not even about burgers shop.

The End

@Jon

Although it’s 99.99 percent likely Raising Hope won’t make it past Season 4. It’d be incredible if Fox gave it a final season of 12 episodes to bring the total episode count to 100. It’s a nice number which would suit a nice show like this.

Riff Rafferty

Sony aren’t GREEDY $CUM-$UCKING LEECHES?

No. Well, not anymore they’re not. I think they learned their lesson with that can’t-miss invention with a price point no consumer could ever resist. Betamax, I think they called it?

James

Raising Hope doesn’t do terribly. Considering the slot it is in, it is doing proportionally as well as The Mindy Project. I expect The Mindy Project will also continue to drop.

By the end of the season, Raising Hope will be the second highest rated comedy on Fox. Just like last season.

Once Season 4 airs, if it can remain as consistent as it seems to be, it’ll get a Season 5. Especially if the comedy department of Fox remains as disastrous as their drama department and they don’t find a fourth comedy to keep next year (if Mindy Project or Goodwin Games gets renewed at the end of this season).

Mumbo

A third-season comedy is usually a lock for a renewal even if it’s not from the same network, because whatever company is producing it will usually slash the fees to get to syndication.

The syndication gods are mighty indeed, they got Community to Season 4 as well, and what they did for Til Death…well, I don’t even need to comment on that.

Bob Saget

Is it too late to bring back House?

Matthew Chapman

Tweet just in

The X Factor USA is apprently coming back for a 3rd season according to a tweet from Simon Cowell.

Katie

I love how it seems like a lot of shows with terrible ratings get renewed. Then I see other shows with higher ratings getting cancelled. Totally makes sense.

Kirby Palm

How did Fringe last this long? It sucks! And what’s up with Bob’s Burgers? It ALSO sucks! Is anyone older than 5 actually watching it?

No love lost for The Mob Doctor here, but hey, at least it was better than Fringe!

Kirby Palm

SWMBO vetoed Ben & Kate after watching the premier. Couldn’t disagree with her, so we haven’t watched it since. I think part of the problem is how ugly the guy is; he should get his teeth fixed or something.

Jamie

Fox is really fallen with shows this year so far. Bones is the only show on the network that’s solid. Sure, it isn’t getting as many ratings now that it’s on mondays, which by the way is a very stupid idea,Fox..When Thursday nights they could 8-10 million viewers but I’m not going there. But still it gets about a solid 7 million viewers and is there only hit at the moment. everything else is starting to crumble on this network. Even with bones, I look for acouple more seasons if the ratings stay solid like this..10 years on the air is a brilliant and classic run. But they don’t have one single solid hit besides bones and I do not count reality shows here. I’m talking about scripted. The only other one they had was house and not that house is gone, Bones is the only one left. I just wander what there next solid hit is going to be.