President Reagan's trip to Bonn for NATO summit likely to prove dangerous

Though Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein is still firmly entrenched in the saddle, western intelligence agencies are beginning to talk of possible successors in case the current reverses that Iraq has suffered in its war with Iran forces him to step down. He has made numerous pleas to Iran for a negotiated settlement and a return to pre-war territorial status. If the war takes a greater toll of men and the country's economy, say reports, he could offer to resign.

If he does, there are only three possible names in the succession stakes. The front runner is Taha Yassin Ramadhan, the first deputy prime minister, followed closely by Izzat Ibrahim al-Doury, deputy chairman of the ruling revolutionary command council and Tariq Aziz, the deputy prime minister.

Children of war

Though the fighting in Afghanistan seems to have abated in intensity, the Afghan Army is hamstrung more than ever before bv the steady depletion in its ranks through mass desertions. Last fortnight, the Government took yet another step to stem the rot by reducing the conscription age from 21 to 19.

The new regulation means that the army's latest recruits will be schoolchildren. Under the new rules, students having completed their 11th class examinations will be given 12th class certificates after serving a year without sitting for examinations, while those in the 10th class will be given high school-leaving certificates.

Reagan (Left)and Haig: Diminishing popularity

Storm signals

President Reagan's scheduled trip to Bonn for the NATO summit in June is likely to put further strains on his ever-diminishing international popularity ratings. It could also prove physically dangerous as well. Intelligence reports say that extremists are already planning to disrupt Reagan's address to the West German federal Parliament, and the massive anti-nuclear peace march planned for that day is certain to end in violence greater in intensity than the street battles that erupted during US Secretary of State Alexander Haig's visit to West Berlin last September.

Targets of terror

The arrest last month of three Syrians in Stuttgart, West Germany, has confirmed European security agencies' theories that Syrian hit teams are being dispatched to Europe to eliminate opponents of the ruling regime, particularly the Moslem Brotherhood, a terrorist group violently opposed to the Assad Government. The three Syrians arrested, were in possession of weapons and explosives and western intelligence sources say that at least seven assassination squads have arrived in Europe in the past month with pre-selected targets to be liquidated.

A threatening union

The threat of a military confrontation between North and South Korea has escalated alarmingly in recent weeks and seems a certainty according to latest intelligence reports. North Korean President Kim II Sung's frenetic military build-up in the past few years gives him an overwhelming military advantage and it could convince him that the time is right to attempt a unification of Korea through military pressure.

To Moscow with love

Iran's shift towards the Soviet Union in the wake of its ongoing war with Iraq has not only continued unabated but has gone beyond its previous limitations of supply of arms and ammunition. A number of trade missions from Teheran have visited communist bloc countries in recent weeks. One mission led by Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Ali Jasebi was given a warm welcome in Czechoslovakia and East Germany when they arrived to sign trade agreements. Another mission visited Hungary shortly after and a third, led by Iran's Energy Minister, Hassan Ghafouri-Fard, visited Mascow for talks with top Soviet leaders and returned having signed a protocol on economic and technical cooperation.

According to intelligence reports, all three missions were trying to barter oil for medicines and commodities which Iran is desperately short of. According to sources in Teheran, the warming of relations between Iran and the Soviets is at the express orders of President Ali Khamenei who, it is claimed, was a former member of the Tudeh (communist) party.

Narrow escape

Libya's controversial leader, Colonel Gaddafi, seems to have a charmed life. According to Arab intelligence sources, recent reports that the Libyan strongman was the target of yet another assassination attempt late last month have been confirmed. The incident occurred at a Libyan naval base in Tobruk where Gaddafi had gone to attend the celebrations of the anniversary marking the end of British occupation.

According to the sources, the aborted attempt was not the handiwork of a lone gunman but a group of disgruntled naval officers stationed at the Tobruk base. The idea was to gun down the Libyan leader while he was alighting from the naval vessel he arrived in. However, a group of loyal officers got wind of the plot and Gaddafi was whisked away from the base under heavy guard. The latest attack on the mercurial leader is said to be the seventh such attempt since Gaddafi came to power. The main grouse of the mutineers seems to be anger against Gaddafi for not giving the armed forces the status they think it deserves.

Do You Like This Story? Awesome! Now share the story Too bad. Tell us what you didn't like in the comments