Ranking SEC East defenses 2016

Chris Wright| 4 years ago

Numbers might not lie, but sometimes they fib.

Take 2015, for instance. The SEC East had five of the top six scoring defenses in the league. Sounds impressive on the surface, but you don’t need to do a deep dive to realize those numbers were inflated by six games against East offenses.

Missouri, for instance, allowed an SEC-low 16.2 points per game last season. Yet the Tigers allowed 31 and 28 in their two crossover games against the SEC West — the most points Missouri allowed.

Georgia, statistically the second-stingiest East defense, gave up 38 to Alabama.

This season could be more of the same. Every SEC East team except Tennessee started at least two quarterbacks last season. And at this point, only Tennessee can count on an All-SEC type performance from that position in 2016.

With that, let’s predict how the SEC East defenses will stack up in 2016.

1. Tennessee

2015 points per game allowed: 20.0, fifth in SEC.

Better or worse in 2016? Better.

Why? The Vols could have three first-team All-SEC performers in 2016, one at each level in defensive end Derek Barnett, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and cornerback Cam Sutton.

Tennessee lost just three starters, but beyond that, the Volunteers can see the goal line. Butch Jones has built the foundation, brick by brick, and 2016 will represent a final walkthrough of sorts.

Fine-tuning this, touching up that. The major renovation work is complete.

It helps, too, that the offense will provide leads, occasionally big ones, which will make opponents more predictable.

Tennessee had the most impressive bowl result among SEC East teams, capped by a 100-yard interception return from Evan Berry, who figures to step into one of the two open safety spots, shoring up the only possible preseason concern.

2. Georgia

2015 points per game allowed: 16.9, third in SEC.

Better or worse in 2016? Worse.

Why? Worse is relative because the Bulldogs still might have the best group in the East. But matching roughly 17.0 points allowed will be difficult primarily because of the schedule. Georgia opens against high-scoring UNC, which also must replace its starting quarterback but will do so with an experienced backup in Mitch Trubisky who has thrown for more than 1,000 career yards.

And then the Bulldogs swap Alabama with Ole Miss on the rotating crossover — nothing gained.

We know Kirby Smart will bring the intensity. And Georgia will look different — it must replace three starting linebackers, six starters total.

3. Florida

2015 points per game allowed: 18.3, fourth in SEC.

Better or worse in 2016? Worse.

Why? Florida’s PPG allowed also was propped up by the East. LSU and Alabama each scored at least 28 against the Gators.

That number might decrease thanks to a more favorable schedule — the Gators replace Ole Miss with Arkansas in the rotating crossover game.

But they’ll be hard-pressed to be better than last year’s group.

The Gators not only lost six starters but also their top playmakers. Alex McAlister and Jonathan Bullard each had a team-high 6.5 sacks last season. Antonio Morrison was their leading tackler. Vernon Hargreaves might be a top 10 pick in the NFL Draft.

There is talent returning, most notably in Jalen Tabor, Jarrad Davis and CeCe Jefferson, a rising star at defensive end.

4. Missouri

2015 points per game allowed: 16.2, second in SEC.

Better or worse in 2016? Worse.

Why? Again, it’s relative because eight starters return, but opening at West Virginia certainly is more challenging than hosting SE Missouri State.

Missouri lost just three starters, but one was Kentrell Brothers, who led the SEC with 152 tackles.

Walter Brady and Charles Harris each had 7 sacks last season and they’ll create havoc no matter the alignment — 3-4 or 4-3 — that Barry Odom and coordinator DeMontie Cross choose.

5. Vanderbilt

2015 points per game allowed: 21.0, sixth in SEC.

Better or worse in 2016? Worse.

Why? How good was Vandy’s defense in 2015? Houston scored 34. Tennessee went off for 53. Ole Miss scored 27.

The Commodores return seven starters, led by Zach Cunningham, and Derek Mason is a proven defensive mind, but the sense was Vanderbilt in 2015 was a good defense helped by an average schedule.

6. South Carolina

2015 points per game allowed: 27.5, last in SEC.

Better or worse in 2016? Better.

Why? The easy answer is Will Muschamp, but schemes only put players in position to make plays — players actually have to make them. Lack of talent certainly was an issue in 2015.

To that point, Muschamp’s key get during the recruiting season was retaining linebacker Skai Moore, a second-team All-SEC pick in 2015.

Moore led the Gamecocks with 111 tackles, and he’s the leading returning tackler in the East.

7. Kentucky

2015 points per game allowed: 27.4, tied 12th in SEC.

Better or worse in 2016? Worse.

Why? Personnel losses hit the Wildcats harder than any East defense, in part because they aren’t able to reload as well as others.

Kentucky lost six starters, including linebacker Josh Forrest and safety A.J. Stamps, both NFL Combine invites.

Cornerback Chris Westry is an emerging force, but Kentucky still lacks a dominant pass-rusher. Even with experienced starters, the Wildcats had just 17 sacks in 2015, last in the league.

The

Comments Section

42 COMMENTS

“but the sense was Vanderbilt in 2015 was a good defense helped by an average schedule”

So, SDS is saying that a team like Houston is “average?” Jesus Christ, this guy is stupid. Plus, if you looked for even one second at our schedule this year, you would see that our schedule is easier than it was last year.

PS. Allowing 27 points to a team who had just hung 40 on Alabama is somehow a bad thing?

I agree. If you’re not Tennessee or UGA, SDS gives you little respect. I seriously think Tennessee’s defense was average last year. What makes anyone think they’ll be better than Mizzou, who’s returning arguably the best front 7 in the SEC and two 1st round picks on the DL.

I agree that Mizzou’s Dline is very stout but so is UT’s. Couple that with Sutton and Reeves-Maybin deciding not to leave early for the NFL and that is why this author probably considers Tennessee the best defense going into this year. Tennessee’ s run game should be able to control the ball and keep the defense rested, while Mizzou has a lot of 3 and outs, so the defense gets gassed a little quicker. Losing Brothers hurts too. That guy was always around the ball.

True. I am by no means saying that Tennessee’s defense was bad last year, but I just didn’t see them at the same level as a Georgia or Vanderbilt in 2015. Mizzou will definitely have a better offense this year though. When you’re that bad, there’s nowhere to go but up!

We have every single player returning on what people considered the second best defensive line in the SEC (to Alabama). I know we lost Brothers, but Mike Scherer and Donavin Newsom both share really similar qualities. I don’t see how that’s such a crazy statement.

I wouldn’t say average. UT had to play OU and BGSU, 2 of the top 6 scoring offenses in all of CFB last year. Still, we were still iffy on the interior and playing a walk-on MLB for the first 4 or 5 games. No real holes this year.

Couple this with the best offense in the division by far; Tennessee was 33rd nationally in scoring last year at 33.5 ppg, Georgia was the next closest team in the division at 24.5 ppg (85th Nationally). Plus, Tennessee returns the most starters on offense in the division and by far the best QB in the division. UT also has the best special teams in the conference. This is why Tennessee’s baseline goal should be winning the division.

But they had marquee wins last year. UT athletic department’s strategy is to purchase some wins, run up the score, and make the completely football uneducated East Tennessee drunks think the team they cheer for is relevant and they will buy tickets next year based on false hype.

Thats funny because UK wouldn’t be able to beat bgsu. If you think Tennessee only runs up the score I’ve got a score for you 102-37 thats the combined score of the two most recent games. If Tennessee is mediocre then what is Kentucky?

“Florida’s PPG allowed also was propped up by the East. Ole Miss, LSU and Alabama each scored at least 28 against the Gators.”

Florida beat Ole Miss 38-10 last season.

The reason they gave up so many points is because they had the worst offense in the SEC after Grier f-ed up and Treon took over. When the opposing offense gets the ball back as often and as frequently as the ones they faced, kinda screws the defense. They can only make so many stops.

The article clearly states that LSU and Bama scored at least 28, NOT Ole Miss.

The only mention of Ole Miss is stating they will be replaced by Arky. And the author is correct in stating every East def was propped up by historically weak offenses on that side. The only respectable offense was UT.

“The reason they gave up so many points is because they had the worst offense in the SEC after Grier f-ed up and Treon took over.” They gave up so many points in the last three games because they had lost hope, without an offense to do anything why would they try. I know it sounds dumb and people are always with the ” Never give up” and to me it would be hard not to when it seems like there is no chance of winning.

Gave up awful quick, though, considering how bad some of our offenses have been in the past with decent defenses. But we started those seasons knowing it, Gators got clotheslined. I think the authors reasoning is messed up on most of the teams.

How is he a Tennessee homer? Just because he makes the obvious pick that Tennessee is the clear best preseason defense? He’d be an idiot to say otherwise. Tennessee has one of the best DCs in all of CFB now (when you look at stats over the past few years), and easily one of the most aggressive. It returns the most defensive starters, and has an already good DLine, that will be that much more aggressive. Coupled with its offense, the defense will typically be well rested and thus better when it sees the field. It would be ludicrous to say that Tennessee is not the clear favorite in the preseason in terms of defense in the East.

That said, his criticisms of Florida are idiotic. SDS writers generally have no credibility and hardly ever check their facts or even appear to ever watch football. But don’t knock the guy for putting Tennessee at the top–that’s an obvious choice. Florida at 3 isn’t terrible. They lost a lot of defensive starters who were key to their success. Now, whether Georgia’s defense improves enough to be a better defense has yet to be seen. But let’s not kid ourselves and say that Tennessee isn’t better when examining in the preseason. I dunno how that ranking holds up in the season, especially given injuries, etc. He’s no “homer” though. Tennessee hype is very real this year. Don’t knock anyone for buying into it. Whether the Vols back it up is a completely different question.

Florida was hands down the best defense in the east last year when you look at it as a whole. Tennessee will have a very good defense this year and UF will take a step back because of the talent they lost. Mizzou hasn’t had a bad defense since they have been in the SEC and it should continue to be stout this year. The main problem I have is that you have to choose between worse or better. Some teams will stay the same. Between the two articles the guy has 6 teams improving and 8 getting worse. To me, that can’t happen. Odds are, someone stays statistically the same and some of his “worse” teams will actually improve. I know its spring time and its all guess work but he uses a lot of last year to prove what will happen this year and uses a lot of examples from last years’ results but then goes on to say the majority of the teams will take a step back. As a whole it doesn’t make sense to me.

It’s just the way preseason rankings like this work. It’s an exercise in futility. It’s absolutely impossible to determine rankings like this before spring games. It can’t account for personnel changes, improvements in practice, or injuries. I don’t think the lists are terrible, but I don’t agree with plenty of stuff that has been said in them. But you just have to take it with a grain of salt. Stuff changes, and early predictions like this mean that a lot of stuff will prove to be wrong by the time the season actually starts.

Because of the coaching changes at uga, sc and miz, it’s anyone’s guess how those teams will perform defensively and offensively. Finding a great hc is like finding a needle in a haystack. There’s only a few coaches who have the ability to develope players, keep them focused and work them hard the entire season. As a dawg fan I can only hope that Kirby can do all those things.

Barry Odom and Jackie Shipp have some big shoes to fill and there aren’t many HCs who can develop 2 and 3 star players the way Gary Pinkle can. I don’t know if there ever been a coach besides Pinkle to compete for 2 seccs with that kind of talent. We will see how it goes with your new staff.