Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Whahabi Wake Up Call

These are troubling and uncertain times for Saudi diplomacy. A string of regional upsets and friction with Great Satan has cast the kingdom into rocky, uncharted waters. 44’s support of the Ikwhan in Egypt and its response to the use of chemical weapons in Syria elicited outrage and accusations of unreliability and even betrayal from Riyadh. Then came the slight warming in U.S.-Iranian relations—highlighted by the unprecedented phone call between 44 and Persia's Preacher Command. That mild rapprochement brought to the fore an old specter: an U.S.-Iranian breakthrough that marginalizes the Gulf states and erodes their long-standing position as beneficiaries of U.S.-Iranian hostility.The Gulf is being shut out of regional negotiations. Great Satan was duped on Syria and Iran. The Gulf needs to adopt a more muscular, unilateral approach to safeguard its own interests, and it should cultivate new security patrons to compensate for U.S. capriciousness, perfidy, and retreat from the region.What does this latest round of hand-wringing, protest, and introspection really mean in terms of new directions in Saudi foreign policy?If history is any guide, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf more generally, will continue to pursue policies that align with the broad contours of U.S. strategy—but with a creeping preference for hedging and unilateralism that will, in some cases, clash with U.S. interests. It is in the Gulf’s domestic landscape that the sharpest breaks between Saudi and U.S. views are emerging: regional tensions have enabled a harsh security campaign against a wide range of dissidents, the rise of sectarianism, and the troubling use of censorship.