tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post3113846109317713216..comments2015-03-03T08:02:45.185-06:00Comments on Macro and Other Market Musings: If You Think the Fed is Behind the Low Interest RatesDavid Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-7944609729038902702013-03-28T06:43:40.790-05:002013-03-28T06:43:40.790-05:00thanks for sharing.thanks for sharing<a href="http://www.daai007.org/" title="徵信社" rel="nofollow">.</a><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-11204379783589280002013-02-18T22:56:12.330-06:002013-02-18T22:56:12.330-06:00&quot;Long-term government yields on safe assets a...&quot;Long-term government yields on safe assets across the globe have been declining since the crisis broke out. Something more than the Fed is at work (hint: think global economy buffeted by series of bad economic shocks).&quot;<br /><br />If something more is at work, then are you saying the Fed is doing *some* work? <br /><br />Interest rates have been declining since the early 1980s. Yet Geoffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-34927302069237249242013-02-18T05:08:09.631-06:002013-02-18T05:08:09.631-06:00We really enjoyed and benefited from your article....We really enjoyed and benefited from your article. Thanks and more power!Portland Website Developmenthttp://www.bizsuccesscenter.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-18449568862178281972013-02-11T23:47:42.900-06:002013-02-11T23:47:42.900-06:00I shared one of your previous posts on this subjec...I shared one of your previous posts on this subject with a PhD professor in a business school who is of the hard-money variety. His response was &quot;But the other countries in the diagram are not a good comparison with the U.S. because their economies are more centrally planned. They can also manipulate interest rates to lower their governments&#39; borrowing costs just as the Fed is doing for JDTapphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12618278252714742391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-7569791389608714212013-02-10T11:46:40.140-06:002013-02-10T11:46:40.140-06:00David,
On the margin, expectations embedded in bon...David,<br />On the margin, expectations embedded in bond prices worsened since 2009. On the margin, expectations in other markets improved since 2009. I&#39;m open to any thesis that explains why expectations in these two sets of markets moved in opposite directions. <br /><br />Descriptions of factors affecting the current state of expectations (i.e. inflation shortfall, output gap, etc.) do Diego Espinosanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-27888457856629691572013-02-10T00:36:54.796-06:002013-02-10T00:36:54.796-06:00Diego,
85% of marketable treasuries are not held ...Diego,<br /><br />85% of marketable treasuries are not held by the Fed. Even if we look to the long-end of the yield curve, almost 70% is held outside the Fed (and even this overstates the case since the weighted avg. maturity is just over 5 years). And the Fed&#39;s forward guidance on the ffr is determined by the economic outlook. So no, it is not a stretch to say treasury yields reflect for David Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-12219569828756278772013-02-10T00:22:04.882-06:002013-02-10T00:22:04.882-06:00Diego,
I accept (1), but not (2) and (3). Inflati...Diego,<br /><br />I accept (1), but not (2) and (3). Inflation expectations increased in 2009, but have gravitated around 2.4%. There never was a &quot;catch-up&quot; period of temporarily higher expected inflation to make up for the shortfall in 2008-2009. If anything, inflation expectations have been more volatile. These developments are more consistent with a weak and uncertain economic David Beckworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04577612979801459194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-35745588810295318612013-02-09T21:43:58.234-06:002013-02-09T21:43:58.234-06:00Excellent blogging---I have been pointing this out...Excellent blogging---I have been pointing this out for a long time. The world is headed to ZLB. Japan got there first. <br /><br />Meanwhile, central bankers still wrap themselves in the mantle of glorious inflation-fighters.<br /><br />Talk about institutional ossification. Making central banks independent public agencies might have worked for the last 25 years---but it ain&#39;t working now, Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-49767603479943421072013-02-09T12:20:53.236-06:002013-02-09T12:20:53.236-06:00Diego,
Any thoughts on why stocks have been under...Diego,<br /><br />Any thoughts on why stocks have been under performing relative to high yield? http://bit.ly/UXSOTmFullcarryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01654174575386120137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-88368847050518048542013-02-09T11:43:13.389-06:002013-02-09T11:43:13.389-06:00Fullcarry,
Using risk premia derived from Treasury...Fullcarry,<br />Using risk premia derived from Treasury yields is akin to assuming what you are trying to prove. In other words, assuming Treasury yields are market-determined to prove that Treasury yields are market-determined. <br /><br />At best one could say that the strong rally in risk assets is non-probative of improved market optimism over the path of NGDP growth. However, a strong caseDiego Espinosanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-51657116309842430222013-02-09T10:43:27.781-06:002013-02-09T10:43:27.781-06:00Diego,
Can you elaborate on #3. Risk premiums sug...Diego,<br /><br />Can you elaborate on #3. Risk premiums suggest the exact oppositeFullcarryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01654174575386120137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5713178645208582139.post-62555476909741351962013-02-08T17:10:59.069-06:002013-02-08T17:10:59.069-06:00David,
1) RGDP expectations embedded in bond pric...David,<br /><br />1) RGDP expectations embedded in bond prices have fallen since 2009;<br /><br />2) Inflation expectations embedded in bond prices have risen since 2009.<br /><br />3) RGDP expectations embedded in virtually all risk assets have improved since 2009.<br /><br /><br />Does the &quot;economic shocks&quot; theses account for all three phenomena? If not, then either markets are Diego Espinosanoreply@blogger.com