Connor McDavid (97) of the Edmonton Oilers tries to get off a shot against Corey Crawford (50) of the Chicago Blackhawks, but is pressured by Ryan Carpenter (22) at United Center on March 05, 2020, in Chicago.Jonathan Daniel/ Getty Images

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Share this Story: Chicago Blackhawks will upset the Edmonton Oilers in proposed first round of NHL playoffs, stats analyst predicts

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It’s looking more like a deal will be worked out to proceed with the NHL playoffs, and that the Edmonton Oilers might play the Chicago Blackhawks in the opening round.

This in from the NHLPA: “The Executive Board of the National Hockey League Players’ Association (NHLPA) has authorized further negotiations with the NHL on a 24-team return to play format to determine the winner of the 2020 Stanley Cup. Several details remain to be negotiated and an agreement on the format would still be subject to the parties reaching agreement on all issues relevant to resuming play.”

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My take

The NHLHA’s move to engage with the NHL does not mean there’s a done deal but it’s an important step towards what I’ve long said is a near certainty: that there will be NHL playoffs this summer.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman first reported this plan on Thursday. In the scenario he put forward, the Edmonton Oilers would face off against the Chicago Blackhawks in a first round series, likely a best of five games.

Almost at once, NHL writers weighed in on which teams they thought would win which series, with at least one hockey writer and stats analyst, Sean Tierney of Charting Hockey, predicting the Hawks would beat the Oilers. “I ran these matchups through a playoff simulator to save the NHL some time,” Tierney said, then showed his prediction for each game of the Hawks vs Oilers, with the Hawks winning in seven.

If the series was only a five-gamer, Tierney would have Chicago winning in four games.

At TSN, hockey writer Travis Yost didn’t pick a winner for Edmonton vs. Chicago, but suggested we’d all be winners with such a match up: “I hope this matchup comes to fruition, because the offence will be electric and the defence will be non-existent. The three head-to-head matchups this regular season saw 19 goals scored, and both Edmonton (23rd) and Chicago (29th) finished near the bottom of the league in expected goals against. Between the likes of Patrick Kane, Leon Draisaitl, and Connor McDavid, we are going to see some absolute offensive wizardry.”

At Sportsnet, Edmonton hockey columnist Mark Spector predicted the Oilers taking it in four games: “In a situation where everybody is fresh and healthy, I’ll take youth over experience. Edmonton’s best players are in their mid-20s, while Chicago’s are in their young 30’s. Centre Jonathan Toews would likely get the McDavid matchup. That leaves Draisaitl for 18-year-old Kirby Dach, or the defensively unsteady Dylan Strome. The Blackhawks don’t have enough centremen to keep Edmonton in check offensively, and their defence is weak. That leads to powerplays, which leads to goals against. Neither team is great defensively, so the team that has the puck the majority of the time will win. That will be Edmonton, in four games.”

Chicago and Edmonton played three times this year, with Chicago winning two, Edmonton one, and total goals split of 10 to 9 for Chicago. Edmonton had 33 Grade A scoring chances in the three games to 37 for the Blackhawks.

I’m not going to venture an opinion right now on which team would win a series. I’ll wait until the the games are set and we see the full rosters before doing that full analysis.

Some folks are upset with this playoff format and the fact that the second-place Oilers don’t get a first round bye. Justin Bourne of The Athletic noted: “I’m not gonna quibble much with whatever format the NHL decides to go with here, it sounds like it’s going to be something that makes as much sense as possible. But it is pretty wild if you’re the Oilers – after their past decade or so – to be three points out of first in the division and solidly in second, all poised for home ice in the post-season … then have to beat the Blackhawks in a best of five to *make playoffs*. A well-rested Kane, Toews, Corey Crawford … like boy. That’s a tough bounce.”

I’m simply glad there’s playoffs coming. Of all the things I’ve worried about in recent weeks, the Oilers not getting the bye seems like the smallest of concerns. If Edmonton can’t get by the Chicago Blackhawks, the Oilers don’t deserve the Stanley Cup, or even to get into the next round. This is an extraordinary situation, so it doesn’t bother me in the least that the NHL and NHLPA are including 24 teams here. They’ve got a dollar to make. If I don’t like it, I can tune out. But I like it. And given how strange the pandemic and lockdown are, I’m fine with whatever solution the NHL and NHLPA come up with, so long as the Oilers are in the playoffs and there is a playoffs.

don’t be mad about this format that hockey will (most likely) come back with. hockey is like pizza - it’s always good. even if it’s not from your favourite place. even if it’s not the best you ever had. it’s still pizza. and some kind of pizza is better than no pizza.

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Chicago #Blackhawks injury updates from @ByScottPowers:- Adam Boqvist expected to be ready to go if play resumes- Drake Caggiula and Calvin de Haan aren’t ready yet but should be ready in time- Andrew Shaw and Brent Seabrook not expected to play- Zach Smith is questionable

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Staples on politics

A waitress works the dinner rush at Earls Tin Palace, 11830 Jasper Ave., in Edmonton Wednesday May 20, 2020. Edmonton restaurants were allowed to reopen their dinning rooms as part of the first phase of Alberta’s COVID-19 relaunch. David BloomDavid Bloom/Postmedia

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