A BATTLE FOR HEARTS, MINDS AND BURGERS

Shortly after the Gulf War in 1991, I visited Syria, where the warmth of the Syrian people stood in stark contrast to the imposing portraits of Hafez Assad that lined the streets. After a day of sipping tea and wandering through Damascus marketplaces, my friends announced that they wanted to take me to a "very special" restaurant. Famished and expecting a rich meal of Syrian cuisine, I hid my disappointment when we arrived at Burger King.

Over Whoppers, these Syrian university students told me how -- if they were really lucky -- Damascus might hit the mother lode: McDonald's was considering a local franchise. Enjoying a Big Mac would mean they had arrived in the world.

That evening in 1991 was the ultimate manifestation of what political scientist Joseph Nye calls American "soft power" -- cultural and diplomatic dominance that persuades, rather than forces, others to do our bidding. Soft power, he argues, is the necessary complement to "hard power" -- coercion and the projection of military force.

As war looms again in the Persian Gulf, that Damascus dinner returns to my mind. Traveling the region, I find that my friends' dreams have indeed come true. McDonald's operates in almost every Arab country. Many other American fast-food companies also have franchisees.

It would seem that American soft power has only risen in the dozen years since I wolfed down my Syrian Whopper. Best estimates are that Arabs spend about $20 billion a year on U.S. products. And the real potential remains untapped -- there are 300 million consumers in the region.

But lately, news has not been good for American companies here. Major U.S. exporters report regional sales down 25 percent to 40 percent in the last quarter of 2002. McDonald's has announced a pullback from the region; the company will shut 175 stores in 10 countries. Coca-Cola's revenues also have fallen as the popularity of Muslim-owned Mecca Cola, and its Iranian equivalent, Zam Zam Cola, has risen at staggering rates.

There are now 800 satellite channels available, but many of them carry Arabic broadcasters who present points of view that are the polar opposite of American "propaganda" -- for example, the dateline for Israel is "Occupied Palestine."

Ditto for the Internet. Islamic fundamentalism has risen -- not decreased -- with prolonged exposure to American culture.

The Arab boycott and retreat of McDonald's are important indicators of long-term American prospects in the Middle East. A recent poll conducted in Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan and Turkey found that 78 percent of the population of these Muslim allies of the United States thought that "the spread of American ideas and customs is a bad thing." With every threat of war from President Bush, the sales of Mecca Cola rise further.

Viewed in this light, the retreat of the Big Mac might do the United States some good. After all, there are better ways to cultivate soft power. We might, for instance, learn to respect international agreements like the Kyoto treaty on global warming; perhaps we could support the International Criminal Court; and just maybe we will deal with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict before it deals with us.

In the meantime, I am putting my money into Al Jazeera and Mecca Cola.

Conley is director of the Center for Advanced Social Science Research and associate professor of sociology at New York University. He wrote this for the Los Angeles Times, 202 W. First St., Los Angeles, CA 90012.