Montana

July 21, 2014

PPP's newest look at the Montana Senate race finds it has tightened considerably over the last eight months. John Walsh now trails Steve Daines only 46/39 in his quest to be elected for a full term. That represents a 10 point gain for Walsh since November when he trailed Daines by 17 points at 52/35.

Walsh and Daines have very similar approval numbers. Walsh is on slightly positive ground at a 38/37 approval, while Daines is on slightly negative ground at a 39/40 approval. Daines' approval numbers have dropped a net 9 points from last summer when we found him at a 41/33 spread. He went under water following the government shutdown and has not seen his numbers turn back around.

One place where Walsh has seen real improvement as he's become better known is in his crossover support from Republicans. Where he trailed 90/3 with them in November, that deficit is now just 79/12. Walsh has a slightly more unified party behind him, getting 81% of Democrats. Daines leads 41/32 with independents, but that has tightened from 48/35 last fall.

The generic Senate ballot in Montana actually gives Republicans only a 45/41 lead. Daines' lead is larger than that mostly based on his having slightly greater name recognition from having run statewide on his own account in 2012. Daines remains the favorite in the Senate race, but it looks to have a lot more potential to be competitive than it did previously.

November 21, 2013

Raleigh, N.C. – As tough as things look for Democrats in the Montana Senate race right now, they wouldn't necessarily be much better if Max Baucus was running for reelection. Only 38% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 53% who disapprove. That makes him the second most unpopular Senator in the country in our polling, and the most unpopular Democratic Senator by a good margin. He'd be trailing if he was running again too. Jon Tester's approval has dropped from positive territory at 48/43 to now 44/50.

Despite things generally getting worse for Democrats in Montana over the last five months the one person who's holding up well is Governor Steve Bullock. 47% of voters approve of him to 28% who disapprove, numbers that are actually a tick up from their 46/29 standing in June. He has a +15 net approval with independents and an unusually low 39% of Republicans disapprove of him.

-As tough as things look for Democrats in the Montana Senate race right now, they wouldn't necessarily be much better if Max Baucus was running for reelection. Only 38% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 53% who disapprove. That makes him the second most unpopular Senator in the country in our polling, and the most unpopular Democratic Senator by a good margin. He'd be trailing if he was running again too. Jon Tester's approval has dropped from positive territory at 48/43 to now 44/50.

-Despite things generally getting worse for Democrats in Montana over the last five months the one person who's holding up well is Governor Steve Bullock. 47% of voters approve of him to 28% who disapprove, numbers that are actually a tick up from their 46/29 standing in June. He has a +15 net approval with independents and an unusually low 39% of Republicans disapprove of him.

-Ted Cruz is the top choice of Montana Republicans to be their candidate for President in 2016. 20% pick him to 14% for Rand Paul and Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Paul Ryan, 8% for Marco Rubio, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Bobby Jindal, and 2% for Scott Walker. Cruz is dominating among voters describing themselves as 'very conservative,' getting 28% to 16% for Rand Paul and only 6% for Chris Christie.

Even with home state candidate Brian Schweitzer in the mix, Hillary Clinton is still the overwhelming pick of Montana Democrats. She gets 47% to 26% for Schweitzer, 8% for Elizabeth Warren, 6% for Joe Biden, and 3% for Andrew Cuomo with everyone else at 1% or less.

November 19, 2013

Raleigh, N.C. – Some Democrats, trying to clear the field for John Walsh, are frustrated by John Bohlinger’s candidacy for U.S. Senate in Montana, but at this point, it doesn’t really matter which one runs against current at-large Rep. Steve Daines next fall—they both are down double digits. Only 37% of voters approve of Daines’ job performance, with 42% disapproving, down a net 13 points since PPP last polled the state in June, when it was 41-33. But the partisanship of the electorate, President Obama’s 34% approval rating, the toxicity of Obamacare, and both Democrats’ low profiles help Daines post a 51-36 lead over Bohlinger and 52-35 over Walsh. In June, Daines had 45% to 49% of the vote against other Democrats.

Part of Daines’ lead is name identification. Only 21% of voters are unfamiliar with him, versus 40% for Bohlinger and 53% for Walsh. Because of that, about twice as many Democrats and independents are undecided as Republicans.

PPP's first Montana Senate poll since Steve Daines officially got into the race finds him starting out with pretty substantial leads for both the general and primary elections. Daines leads Democratic challengers John Bohlinger and John Walsh by spreads of 51/36 and 52/35 respectively. He also has a 66/7 lead in the primary over Champ Edmunds.

Daines' leads aren't a function of his being particularly popular. He has a 37/42 approval spread, down a net 13 points from June when he was at 41/33. It does appear anger over the shutdown has had some effect on his image. But the number that may be most important to the US Senate race at this point is 34. That's Barack Obama's approval rating in the state, with 63% of voters disapproving of him. Only 31% of voters in the state support the Affordable Care Act to 58% opposed, and just 14% think the rollout of the ACA has been a success to 82% who think it's been unsuccessful. 63% rate it as being 'very unsuccessful.' All of that is making it a tough start to the race for Democrats.

Daines has his large early leads because he gets 87-90% of the Republican vote, compared to only 75-76% of the Democratic vote for Bohlinger and Walsh. Daines is also up by 13-14 points with independents. If there's any silver lining for Democrats it's that a lot more of their voters are undecided, but with Daines over 50% it's looking like a climb.

John Walsh is starting out with the lead in the Democratic primary. He's at 39% to 31% for John Bohlinger and just 3% for Dirk Adams. Walsh's lead is wider among voters describing themselves as 'very liberal' (53/29) while he has single digit advantages with those who identify as 'somewhat liberal' or moderate.

June 27, 2013

Raleigh, N.C.- It's yet another sign of how
overwhelming the desire is among Democrats for Hillary Clinton to be their
Presidential candidate in 2016 that she's polling at 52% in Montana despite the
presence of potential home state contender Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer gets
17% with Joe Biden at 9%, Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren at 3%, and no one
else over 1%.

“Our
polling has consistently found that even if there’s a popular home state
candidate it doesn’t matter- a majority of Democrats everywhere want Hillary
Clinton as their candidate in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling.

The top
choice of Republican voters in the state for their candidate is actually Rand
Paul though. He gets 21% to 13% for Bush, 12% for Christie and Ted Cruz, 10%
for Marco Rubio, 9% for Paul Ryan, 6% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% for Susana Martinez.

-It's yet another sign of how overwhelming the desire is among
Democrats for Hillary Clinton to be their Presidential candidate in 2016
that she's polling at 52% in Montana despite the presence of potential
home state contender Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer gets 17% with Joe
Biden at 9%, Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren at 3%, and no one else
over 1%.

Schweitzer would be more viable than Clinton in a general
election though. He leads Chris Christie 42/41 and Jeb Bush 48/41 in
hypothetical match ups in the state. Clinton meanwhile ties Bush at 45
and trails Christie 45/40.

The top choice of Republican voters in
the state for their candidate is actually Rand Paul though. He gets 21%
to 13% for Bush, 12% for Christie and Ted Cruz, 10% for Marco Rubio, 9%
for Paul Ryan, 6% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Susana Martinez, and 1% for
Rick Santorum.

-Montana voters still don't support gay marriage,
but they're moving strongly in that direction. In 2011 we found that
voters opposed it by a 14 point margin, with 37% in favor and 51%
against. The margin has shifted 8 points in favor since then and now 42%
of voters support it with only 48% opposed. Voters under 45 in the
state support gay marriage by a wide margin, including 61/30 with those
under 30. On the broader issue of legal rights for same sex couples, 71%
of voters in the state at least support civil unions with just 27%
opposed to any sort of legal recognition.

-Studies show that Montana has one of the top 5 highest levels of gun ownership in the country, but voters in the state nevertheless strongly support expanded background checks 58/35. Independents support expanded background checks by the same 58/35 spread as the overall number.

June 25, 2013

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s most recent poll of Montana
voters finds a tight Senate race brewing in the Treasure State, especially if
former governor Brian Schweitzer throws his hat into the ring. Schweitzer is
the most well-known and favorable person in Montana politics, with a 54%
approval rating compared to 40% who have an unfavorable view of the former
governor. Other popular Montanans include former governor Marc Racicot
(43%/37%), State Auditor Monica Lindeen (38%/22%), State Superintendent Denise
Juneau (39%/25%), and Congressman Steve Daines (41%/33%). The two Montanans
with higher unfavorable ratings were also the least recognized: Corey
Stapleton, with a 14%/24% split, and Champ Edmunds, who had just a 4% favorable
rating compared to 22% unfavorable.

In the
head to head matchups, all of the Republican would find victory over any
Democrats besides Schweitzer, with the exceptions of Stapleton and Edmunds who
would lose to all three Democrats. Should Schweitzer end up being the
Democratic candidate, Montanans would be looking at a pretty tight Senate race
in 2014. In a theoretical matchup between Daines and Schweitzer, the former
governor would win with 48% compared to 45% for Daines. If Racicot and
Schweitzer squared off instead, the Republican would beat Schweitzer by just a
single percent, 47% to 46%. In both of these races, Schweitzer would hold a
nice lead with independent voters, 50% to 39% against Daines and 46% to 41%
against Racicot.

PPP's newest Montana poll finds that if the top tier candidates for each party get into the Senate race, it will be a toss up.

Three candidates rise to the top in our polling: Brian Schweitzer on the Democratic side and Marc Racicot and Steve Daines on the Republican side. And any match up involving those three candidates would be a toss up. Schweitzer leads Daines 48/45, but trails Racicot by a single point at 47/46. Schweitzer overcomes the GOP lean of the state by leading both of them (Daines 50/39 and Racicot 46/41) with independents. He also has the highest favorability rating of any of the potential candidates at 54/40, followed by Racicot at 43/37, and Daines' approval of 41/33.

Schweitzer would blow both of the Republicans we tested other than Daines and Racicot out of the water. He would have a 52/37 lead over Champ Edmunds and a 52/38 one over Corey Stapleton. Likewise Daines and Racicot would both have substantial leads over the potential Democrats we tested besides Schweitzer- Daines leads Denise Juneau 48/38 and Monica Lindeen 49/37 in hypothetical contests, while Racicot leads Juneau 52/37 and Lindeen 52/35 in head to heads.

February 21, 2013

Raleigh,
N.C. – Former Gov.
Brian Schweitzer is popular enough in his home state to make Montana
competitive if he were the Democratic nominee for president in 2016.

Schweitzer
is tied at 46% in a hypothetical 2016 match-up with Marco Rubio, and he trails
Paul Ryan by just 4 points, 45% to 49%. By comparison Hillary Clinton trails
Ryan by 7 points (44/51) and Rubio by 8 points (42/50). Clinton is viewed
favorably by 44% of general election voters and unfavorably by 48%.

Clinton
is still the top pick for 58% of Montana Democrats to be the party’s 2016
presidential nominee, followed by 22% for Schweitzer, 9% for Joe Biden, 5% for
Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, 1% for Martin O’Malley and Deval Patrick,
and 0% for Kirsten Gillibrand and Mark Warner. If Clinton opts to not run,
Schweitzer would be the first choice for 35% of Democratic primary voters,
trailed by Biden at 28%, Warren at 13% and everyone else in the low single
digits or receiving no support. If Clinton and Biden both decide not to run,
Schweitzer’s support would surge to 46%.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2015

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

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