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Sprint Cup Chase scenarios include plenty of twists

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points leader Greg Biffle is one of four drivers locked into the Chase for the Championship with two races remaining in the regular season. Photo by LAT PHOTOGRAPHIC

Toyota driver Denny Hamlin trusts NASCAR to have every Chase for the Championship scenario correctly computed, down to the most unlikely possibilities. That's why he's not terribly worried that, despite three wins and being eighth in points, he still hasn't clinched a spot in the 12-driver, 10-race playoff.

“The only reason I'm not locked in is because of the 14 [Tony Stewart],” Hamlin said after winning last weekend at Bristol. “If he falls out of the top 10, he'll [probably] take a wild-card spot. And if the five [Kasey Kahne] wins a race and gets to three [wins] but is still outside the top 10, then, somehow, some way, we won't make it. But I don't think that's going to be the case. NASCAR knows all the clinch scenarios, so I'm not too worried about it.”

Having two wins and being atop the standings, Ford driver Greg Biffle has clinched a top-10 spot. With three wins, second-ranked Chevy driver Jimmie Johnson also has clinched a spot; so has Chevy teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr., who is third in points and a one-time winner. Fourth-ranked Matt Kenseth, a one-time winner in a Ford, also has clinched at least a wild-card spot. But not Hamlin, and that's a bit confusing. Bear with us.

The top-10 in points after Richmond on Sept. 8 are locked into the Chase. No matter what happens, Biffle, Johnson and Earnhardt Jr. can't fall from the top 10 in the next two races. With only 98 points available the next two weekends, each is at least 104 points inside the cut. Fourth-ranked Kenseth, a one-time winner, will lock in by finishing 40th, 41st or 42nd, depending on whether he leads no laps, at least one lap or the most laps.

Fifth-ranked Martin Truex Jr. will join them by finishing 14th, 15th or 16th while leading no laps, at least one or the most this weekend. Sixth-ranked Clint Bowyer gets in by finishing 11th, 12th or 13th while leading none, at least one or the most. Seventh-place Keselowski clinches by finishing seventh, eighth or ninth while leading none, at least one or the most. Under those scenarios—Kenseth, Truex Jr., Bowyer and Keselowski advance, regardless of what happens next weekend at Richmond.

Depending on how other drivers finish Sunday, eighth-ranked Hamlin, ninth-ranked Kevin Harvick and 10th-ranked Tony Stewart can strengthen their top-10 spot or get a wild card. Going into Atlanta, two-time winner Kahne and one-time winner Kyle Busch hold the wild cards. One of the other one-race winners—Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Marcos Ambrose or Joey Logano—could temporarily replace one of them by winning at Atlanta.

And this is how Hamlin could miss the Chase: If Kahne, for example, wins this weekend and struggles at Richmond, he might remain outside the top 10 with three wins, good for a wild-card spot. If Stewart, for example, finishes poorly at Atlanta and wins at Richmond, he might drop outside the top 10 with four wins. And if Hamlin has two bad races and drops from the top 10, Stewart and Kahne might get the wild cards. In that case, one-time winner Kyle Busch also will miss the Chase, unless he races his way into the top 10.

“But you'd rather have [another] win,” Busch said after finishing sixth at Bristol. “You need that second win [in case] a Chase guy falls out of the top 10 and needs a wild card. Brad Keselowski and Tony Stewart had bad nights, so if they fall out and take a wild card, we're not looking too good. It would really help to win again and get in there with Kasey with two wins.”

Carl Edwards, last year's series runner-up, is 12th in points and winless—and outside the Chase. He'd get a wild card by winning at Atlanta and Richmond, but one win and another bad finish might not help, since another one-race winner may be higher in points. A win would ensure at least a wild card for Hamlin, Harvick and Stewart.