SurveyUSA: Gregoire, Rossi in tie

SurveyUSA has released a new poll in the governor’s race it conducted for KING-TV (Seattle) and KATU-TV (Portland.) No surprise really, the race is a statistical dead heat, with Gov. Chris Gregoire polling at 48% and Dino Rossi (GOP Party) 47%.. From the SurveyUSA summary:

Among men, Rossi has regained the nominal lead, swinging from a tie to a six-point lead. Among women, Rossi has fallen off, increasing Gregoire’s lead from 4 points to 7. The gender gap between the two candidates is now 13 points, the largest since Mid-August. Independents, who make up 28% of likely voters, have consistently preferred Rossi since June, by margins of 24, 8, 10, 6, 2, and 10 points; today, independents favor Rossi by 8.

While there’s always a danger in becoming too reliant on polls, two other things are worth mentioning. Rossi has a large lead among 19-34 year old voters in the poll, leading Gregoire 54%-38%, and Rossi is ahead everywhere outside Metro Seattle.

So the fact that the final debate tonight between the pair is in Seattle and will be available outside the Seattle market only on cable is something of a tactical victory for the Rossi campaign. Plus it’s after the presidential debate, and surely only the hardest of hardcore followers of politics could sit through four hours of debates and coverage.

People are going to be voting any day now, so it looks like another extremely close gubernatorial election is a possibility. The BIAW and the Republican Governor’s Association obviously think they can buy the election for Rossi, but dropping such obscene amounts so late could backfire on them as traditional journalists inform the public about it. Postman or Ammons or Herrington or Mulick will be all over it.

(To be fair, Garber is on it. At the Seattle Times. Which I believe is widely read in um, Metro Seattle.)

And yes, Gregoire benefits from union money. Whatever. It’s not even as much as the phoney-baloney PAC money BIAW alone raises, however it actually raises it.

I don’t mind the Repugs dropping $12 million on Rossi. They could have bought a couple of U.S. Senate seats for that kind of money. Any military commander would gladly sacrifice a couple of divisions for a diversion this good! Their 12 mil will go down an empty rat hole and the Democrats will end up with a filibuster-proof U.S. Senate. Sweet!

Why do you say that expenditure as a percent of income is “ridiculous”? When my income rises, I can afford more expenditure. The voters asked for more teachers and more corrections spending, and when the state revenues allowed, they got them. When revenue projections fell, the Governor made cuts and will make more by the time she submits her proposal in December. FTEs as a fraction of population follows the same logic. Plus, thanks to the rainy day fund, the budget has more stability across the business cycle than otherwise. In Oregon they have a rollercoaster every time there is a recession.

And I didn’t “conveniently” omit the 2008 expenditures. The OFM website didn’t have them in a comparable fashion. Since 2008 isn’t over yet, the expenditures haven’t all been made, and the cuts are increasing every week. If you have an official source for 2008 expenditures to date, that’s great. Let’s see it. Meanwhile I don’t where you get this $8 billion increase you cite. Over what time frame? Is this General Fund only? Does it include the capital budget? Is all the revenue for this coming from taxes, or is also coming from lottery funds, fees, licenses and Federal sources? Again, what’s important is not the absolute number, but the BURDEN, and to know that you DO take into account state personal income and population.

Cynical–OK, one more time: actually, the STATE’s total personal income DID rise, from 2003 to 2007 by almost 31%. (My source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table SA1-3.)

So if, as you claim (without sources) that expenditures rose 33%, that actually seems OK to me, since it is roughly in line with income (so the burden hasn’t risen) and since the voters asked for increased spending on education.

And, yes, my Dodgers lost…Manny couldn’t do it all by himself. So, go Phillies! But honestly, do you have to say “Dodgers Lost! GOOD.” Ow! That really hurt!

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