ETHUSD update: The slow grind is a pleasant market to watch if you are managing positions over the long term. If you are trying to open a new position, it can be very hard to watch because it can turn at any point, but slowly continues higher. What is not obvious is the risk of retrace which I will talk more about in this report.

Price is about to retest the 625 resistance (.382 of recent bearish swing). This level has previously proven to attract selling activity. The question is do these bears return? The higher low established at 575 indicates that price is more likely to push higher, but this is where the risk of retrace comes into play.

The 641 reversal zone boundary is relative to the 628 high and is the area to watch for bearish formations IF a fake out is in order for these markets.

Keep in mind, this is not a prediction, it is a scenario to be prepared for. If the newly established bullish trend line stays intact, this market may be on its way to a new high and a decisive close above the 628 level. This will change the short term outlook from bearish to bullish .

At S.C., we are not taking any new swing trade longs because price is too close to resistance levels. We would rather miss the low probability trade, even if it works out this time. We know that in the long run, the same trade would produce inconsistent results and that is not in line with our goal.

Our plan is to wait for better prices which means a retest of 575 would have to happen. If price continues higher, then we will be evaluating for the next swing trade long opportunity.

IMO you are 100% correct. I would like to add that if and when we break 641.00 level, the price will probably tango-dance upward to 812.50 level. This is where I'll throw the towel. The levels to watch out are: 687.50 - 750.00 - 812.50. Again, just my opinion.

I think the only way to deal with the slow grind is to incrementally put in very small amounts where you don't care if you get stopped out. It's the only way to keep from going crazy when the market doesn't give you a clear entrance point.

@TradeClass, wait: he pretty much said we’re going to either keep the bullish momentum by breaking 628 or the bears will gain back power if we drop below 575. That’s...pretty much both possible scenarios (other than a consolidation period, which just delays either outcome).

So, what other scenario are you envisioning?

You also managed to make a prediction without actually saying whether it was going to be up or down :)