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Reformist wave sweeps Iran

Many questions in election's wake

Posted: Sunday, June 10, 2001

By Brian MurphyAssociated Press

TEHRAN, Iran -- President Mohammad Khatami exceeded even the most optimistic projections Saturday, as vote tallies headed toward an overwhelming win, likely even stronger than the wave of popularity that first brought the Iranian reformer to power.

But the landslide was just the beginning of a daunting fight: challenging the tight grip of hard-line Muslim clerics, confronting the entrenched troubles with Washington and meeting his backers' sky-high expectations for change in the Islamic republic.

By Saturday afternoon, Khatami held 77 percent of the vote with 23 million ballots counted.

Even Khatami's most fervent supporters had openly doubted he could pass the standard set in 1997 elections that swept him to power. But now it seemed likely he would top the 20 million votes he received four years ago. The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, citing Interior Ministry sources, said Khatami took more than 21 million votes in Friday's election.

''Amazing,'' gushed a teen-age girl listening to the returns from Friday's elections at the office of a pro-Khatami youth group.

''Magic of democracy,'' said the headline of the Mellat newspaper, whose staff revolted last week when top editors backed a Khatami rival.

Turnout from the vote could reach 80 percent -- or 35 million of the 42.1 million Iranians who have reached the voting age of 16. Four years ago, Khatami received 70 percent of the vote with 90 percent turnout.

Topping the 1997 vote would wash away rivals' claims that public support is flagging for Khatami's campaign to bring greater political and social openness. Hard-line clerics have battled the reform drive throughout his first four-year term.

But Khatami needs much more potent alchemy to transform his vast support into tangible results.

Iran's economy is ailing despite its oil and gas fields. Foreign investors are wary and unemployment may approach 30 percent. Most major enterprises are controlled by tax-exempt groups linked to the ruling clerics.

Relations with Washington remain in tatters 22 years after the Islamic revolution toppled the U.S.-backed monarchy and 52 Americans were held hostage for 444 days. The Bush administration supports at least a two-year extension of sanctions that block investment in Iran's fuel industry.

Another problem facing reformers is that the 58-year-old Khatami actually wields limited power.

All major decisions rest with the religious authorities -- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his hand-picked group of theocrats, who jealously guard their power.

Their control extends to key institutions such as the courts, police and military -- resources they've used to jail activists and journalists and ban dozens of pro-reform publications.

Khatami, himself a mid-ranking cleric, envisions an ''Islamic democracy'' with room for greater openness in the media, arts and politics -- including more contacts with Western businesses and governments. He also has encouraged a relaxation of social restrictions, such as allowing unsupervised outings between young couples.

Young people are at the forefront of his supporters, having been raised without a direct connection to the Islamic revolution.

Whether he can use the masses as leverage against the conservatives could be a major test.

After the election, a few supporters took to the streets to wave posters and throw flowers. But major celebrations were few -- partly a sign that the victory was widely expected.

Authorities also closed some shopping areas and limited traffic to try to deter spontaneous rallies, which they fear could touch off clashes with hard-liners.

Iran's religious overseers have tolerated some new liberties: young lovers strolling hand-in-hand and more revealing head scarves and coats for women. But the lines have been drawn at open criticism of the Islamic system and changes they fear could undermine their influence.

Resistance to change could be a grave miscalculation, some analysts suggest.

''Hard-liners ... have not learned any lessons from their humiliating (election) defeats,'' said Karim Arqandehpour, editor of the reformist daily Nowruz.

Amin Sabooni, a columnist for the state-owned Iran Daily, said some power brokers ''are not very far from a slippery slope.''

Also at stake were 16 parliament seats -- apparently dominated by reformist candidates -- and two seats on the panel that elects the supreme leader.

This article published in the Athens Banner-Herald on Sunday, June 10, 2001.