Friday, November 13, 2015

Truckers’ Protest Succeeded But Few Russians are Likely to Copy It

Paul
Goble

Staunton, November 13 – Some Moscow
commentators and opposition politicians are expressing hope that the successor
of Russia’s longhaul truckers in forcing the government to retreat on its new
road tariff plans will be copied by others, especially since a major reason
Russians give for not protesting is that it won’t achieve anything.

But an editorial in today’s “Nezavisimaya
gazeta” outlines some of the reasons popular anger based on economic factors isn’t
likely to be translated into protests given both the general unwillingness of
Russians to take part in protests in general and the regime’s skill in diverting
such anger to other targets (ng.ru/editorial/2015-11-13/2_red.html).

In a lead article entitled “Why
Growing Income Inequality will Not Become a Sharp Political Theme,” the editors
of “Nezavisimaya gazeta” note that a recent Levada Center poll found that 69
percent of Russians believe that income inequality has increased during the
years since Vladimir Putin became president.

In most countries, such perceptions
would quickly become a “serious” political resource for the opposition, but not
in Russia, where it is not now and is unlikely to become “central to political
discussions.” Instead, the authorities will be able to “preserve their stable
popularity” even if people are increasingly upset by economic woes.

“The political culture in Russia
does not allow the conversion of a mass sense of growing inequality into such a
conversation,” the editors argue, because with Russians, nothing is easier for
the powers that be than to take steps that play on “hatred for the wealthy” and
thus boost their popularity even though the regime itself bears responsibility
for the inequality.

Russians blame the inequality they
suffer from “not on conditions but on the wealthy themselves,” they write; and
thus the authorities by targeting one or more oligarch for punishment or raising
taxes on some of the wealthier can transform what would appear to be a
political negative anywhere else into a political positive.

And that is even more likely because
Russians count on the state to “solve” this problem, and they don’t care
especially how it is done – either by confiscating successful businesses, using
tax money to create new jobs, or allow most oligarchs to live in peace as long
as a few are punished to appease their feelings.

As a result, the editors conclude,
growing economic problems and income inequality will not have immediate
political consequences. “The powers that be are quite capable of seizing and
using any dissatisfaction arising on this basis and boosting their ratings, by
using the simplest political jests.”

The long haul truckers are in what
is almost a unique situation, “Russkaya planeta” says, and the government’s
decision to introduce new tariffs on them and to allow a private oligarch to
collect the money threatened to affect Russia more negatively than even
sanctions have, transforming its greatest wealth – the enormous size of the
country -- into its greatest misfortune.

That is because if these long haul
trucks don’t move goods from one region to another, then places like Krasnodar
and Volgograd will be as isolated from their Russian neighbors as much as Kaliningrad
and Vladivostok already are and will like the latter be inclined to purchase
things when they can from abroad rather than from other regions.

That could tear Russia apart, the
magazine says; and instead of introducing such tariffs, the Russian government should
be building better roads so that the country will be increasingly linked
together rather than split into isolated pieces.