Feb

19

At the risk of telling all to be calm before a crash….I offer the below chart as an antidote to the 2014/1929 'analogue' stuff flying through cyberspace at the moment.

One hopes Messrs Stigler & Lorie would be proud of me.

Phil McDonnell adds:

One of the common caveats in looking at correlations and analogs is that the correlation should be based on price changes rather than price levels. Using levels leads to spurious high correlations in both directions.

My concern is that using charts of price levels is essentially the same thing as calculating a correlation based on levels. It will lead to spurious conclusions.