Michael Fiers has a lofty 4.50 ERA in his last three starts, and allowed an alarming 6 home runs in just 18.0 innings pitched. One of those outings came against the Angels on 9/13, and he surrendered 3 solo home runs in 7.0 innings of work. The Astros have smashed 209 home runs this season which is second to only Toronto in all of baseball. That includes 120 of those long balls coming in 77 games at Minute Maid Park.

These teams have combined to hit 14 home runs in their last four meetings. Even in last night’s 4-3 Angels win, the teams combined for only 13 hits, and 4 of those were home runs. I like this game to surpass the current total of 8.5 for one of my MLB picks today. After shopping all the major sportsbooks for the best number and price, I determined that Pinnacle will receive my action.

Rays (Smyly) vs. Red Sox (Porcello) 7:10 PM ET
Drew Smyly has made four starts versus the Red Sox since 2014 and was extremely efficient in those appearances. During those outings, Smyly posted an excellent 1.52 ERA, a terrific 0.89 WHIP, and none of those four games went over the total. That includes two starts versus Boston this year in which he allowed only 1 earned run in 12.0 innings pitched. According to current MLB betting odds, Tampa Bay is a money line road underdog today, and they’ve gone 28-16 (63.6%) under the total in that exact role this season.

Rick Porcello has gone 3-0 in his team starts versus Tampa Bay in 2015. During those three outings, Porcello has posted a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

I’m enticed by the betting value on going under this somewhat high total. One of my MLB picks on Wednesday will be indicative of that sentiment.