July 28 Poll Report

By Bill James

July 28, 2019

July 28 Poll Report

Good afternoon everybody.It’s morning in California; I’m in California at the moment. Anyway, this is what I have to tell you:a Poll of four of the weakest candidates in the field which is 96% consistent with previous polling has almost no effect on the Support Scores.In yesterday’s poll of four candidates who among them control about 4% of the vote, every candidate finished within one point of what we would have expected based on previous polling:

Scores

Ryan

136

Williamson

95

de Blasio

85

Delaney

112

Predicted

Ryan

32

Williamson

22

de Blasio

20

Delaney

26

Actual

Ryan

31

Williamson

23

de Blasio

21

Delaney

25

Tim Ryan "won" the poll with 32%, but it has no effect on his Support Score.Removed from the data considered relevant was the poll of June 7, which involved Donald Trump, John Hickenlooper, and two candidates who have since been removed from the data.Since yesterday:

Donald Trump is up 16 points as a result of the removal of the June 7th poll, and

John Hickenlooper is down 16 points as a result of the removal of that poll.

That’s it; those are the only updates that I have for you this morning.The total number of points changing hands on the day was 55, which was the lowest number in more than a month.Here are the updated Support Scores:

Rank

First

Last

Support

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1844

2

Kamala

Harris

1021

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1004

4

Joe

Biden

800

5

Donald

Trump

583

6

Amy

Klobuchar

457

7

Bernie

Sanders

411

8

Andrew

Yang

409

9

Julian

Castro

379

10

Cory

Booker

352

11

Beto

O'Rourke

339

12

Kirsten

Gillibrand

284

13

Tulsi

Gabbard

272

14

Jay

Inslee

256

15

John

Hickenlooper

230

16

Michael

Bennet

225

17

Bill

Weld

212

18

Howard

Schultz

158

19

Tim

Ryan

135

20

Steve

Bullock

114

21

John

Delaney

111

22

Marianne

Williamson

95

23

Bill

de Blasio

85

24

Seth

Moulton

82

25

Mike

Gravel

81

Thank you all for your interest.It’s Sunday; go do something fun.

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MarisFan61Thanks for posting about that. Since he's struggling (like most of them) to be noticed (and to reach a threshold for the September debate), that could be a good strategy for him.

(It's about him maybe "taking a knee.")

I didn't say it's a good basic idea, just perhaps a good strategy for him to get notice and help him reach a threshold.

The format invites all kinds of stuff, and in the next 2 days we'll probably see all kinds of stuff. Hail Mary's, breaking out the knuckleball, and all kinds of "swing hard, you never know."4:35 PM Jul 29th

LesLeinJan Inslee asked if the Star Spangled Banner will be played at the start of the debate. The answer was yes. There’s speculation about the reason for the question.