The ‘Real’ Derby Record of Today’s Top Trainers

About two
weeks ago, my friend and colleague Ed DeRosa made the assertion that, contrary
to popular opinion, trainer Todd Pletcher’s 1-for-31 Kentucky Derby record was
perfectly acceptable.

“Admittedly,
1-for-31 isn't the most impressive stat,” DeRosa wrote on Feb.
26, “but it's also an unfair way to couch the opportunities he's had to win
America's most famous race because he's only tried 12 times (but with 31
horses).”

At best
(barring any dead heats for the win), Pletcher would be 12-for-31, my podcast partner argued.
Furthermore, given the large fields the Run for the Roses typically attracts,
is it fair to expect Pletcher to have saddled more than one Derby winner over
the past 12 years?

According to Ed, no.

“Pletcher
is 1-for-31 (3.2%) in an era when all starters are 13-for-246 (5.3%),” he points
out. “That makes all starters not trained by Todd Pletcher 12-for-215 (5.6%).
Sure, a trainer of his stature could be expected to perform a little better
than all starters, but even winning the race a second time gets him to just
6.45%, and we're about to see winning it twice is no easy task let alone the
charming third time that would make him a nearly 10% trainer in one of the most
difficult races in the world to win.”

DeRosa
then made the point mathematically, presenting an array of tables and charts
that would’ve made Carl Gauss proud — and proving that Pletcher’s single win is
the most likely scenario based on the final odds of his (Pletcher’s) Derby
starters.

While I
have no qualm with DeRosa’s math — it’s spot-on — I do take issue with his
conclusion, and particularly with the way he approached the subject. Frankly,
it’s the same problem I have with the winner of the National Handicapping Championship being awarded an
Eclipse Award asHandicapper
of the Year: In low-probability events, it is generally more illustrative to
look at overall consistency rather than focus solely on winners and losers.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m not taking a shot at past and future
winners of the NHC, but there is a reason that there has been no repeat
champion since the tournament began in 2000— just like the Kentucky Derby,
one’s chances of winning are miniscule. Hence, judging the competence of a
handicapper based on whether or not he/she won the National Handicapping
Championship is silly.

Ditto winning or losing the Derby.

However, at least in regard to America’s biggest race, there is
another standard. A recent study I did found a direct correlation between a
horse’s final odds and its “Form Rating” (a number from 0 to 100 percent that I
derived to assess a horse’s finishing position as well as its beaten lengths in
a particular contest):

(Click on image to enlarge)

So, using the results obtained from the chart above, I thought
it might be interesting to look at how Todd Pletcher and other top trainers
performed in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. Primarily, I looked at
two things:

1) The average expected Form Rating compared to the average
actual Form Rating.

2) The number of times the trainer’s Derby entrants performed better than expected compared to the
number of times they performed worse
than expected.

The results of this study were illuminating.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Not only do we find that Todd Pletcher’s Louisville ledger is,
indeed, dreadful (just 23 percent of his entrants performed better than their
odds suggested), but look who’s at the top of the heap — Dale Romans, a guy who
has yet to visit the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Romans has saddled four Derby runners in his career and only Sharp
Humor in 2006 ran worse than the tote board predicted.

Meanwhile, Pletcher can take solace from the fact that, when it
comes to Derby disappointments, no one comes close to Bill Mott. In addition to
being 0-for-7 in the big race, Mott’s charges have recorded just a two percent
average Form Rating, despite a 21 percent expectation.

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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

Contributors

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.