AUD/USD – Aussie Steady on Mixed US Numbers

AUD/USD is almost unchanged on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the high-0.81 range early in North American trade. Australian markets are closed for the New Year’s holiday. In the US, Unemployment Claims was weaker than expected, jumping to 298 thousand last week. Pending Home Sales posted a gain of 0.8%, while Chicago PMI dipped to 58.3 points.

US releases were a mix on the last day of 2014. Unemployment Claims surprised with a sharp rise, coming in at 298 thousand, compared with 280 thousand in the previous reading. The estimate stood at 287 thousand. On the housing front, Pending Home Sales bounced back from a decline in the previous reading, posting a gain of 0.8% in December. This beat the forecast of 0.6%. The news was not as good from Chicago PMI, which dropped to 58.3 points, its worst showing since June. The reading fell short of the estimate of 60.2 points.

With the US economy showing better numbers as we head into 2015, the US consumer is showing more optimism about the economy. On Tuesday, CB Consumer Confidence rose to 92.6 points, up from 88.8 points a month earlier. Although this missed the estimate of 94.6, this was a solid reading which follows last week’s UoM Consumer Sentiment report. That indicator has been on an upward swing and hit 93.6 points in December, its highest level since February 2007. Consumer confidence numbers are closely watched by analysts, as increased confidence should translate into more spending by consumers, creating more jobs and strengthening economic activity.

AUD/USD for Wednesday, December 31, 2014

AUD/USD December 31 at 16:55 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8175 H: 0.8216 L: 0.8174

AUD/USD Technical

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

0.7904

0.8081

0.8150

0.8214

0.8315

0.8456

AUD/USD has been marked by choppy movement in light trade on Wednesday. The pair tested resistance at 0.8214 in the Asian session.

0.8150 remains a weak support line. 0.8081 is stronger.

0.8214 is a weak resistance line. 0.8315 is stronger.

Current range: 0.8150 to 0.8214.

Further levels in both directions:

Below: 0.8150, 0.8081, 0.7904, 0.7799 and 0.7701

Above: 0.8214, 0.8315, 0.8456 and 0.8550

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Wednesday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted small losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD breaking out of range and moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 287K. Actual 298K.

14:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 60.2 points. Actual 58.3 points.

15:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.8%.

15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.2M. Actual

17:00 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -37B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.

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