What should Kansas City do with Justin Houston's contract?

The Kansas City Chiefs have some big decisions to make during the 2019 offseason.

The franchise tag period opened on Tuesday, and the Chiefs are expected to use their tag on linebacker Dee Ford because of his breakout 2018 season. That tag number would add to a significant investment the Chiefs have already made at Ford’s position.

The Chiefs signed Justin Houston to a six-year, $101 million extension in 2015, which made him the highest-paid linebacker in NFL history. Von Miller and Khalil Mack have since earned contracts exceeding that of Houston. At 30 years old, Houston remains on a deal that makes him one of the highest-paid players at his position.

Houston’s performance in 2018 wasn’t close to his 22-sack season in 2014 that earned him the big extension. In fact, he failed to reach 10 sacks for the fourth consecutive season. His sack production has been mostly average since he signed the extension, but he’s done a good job pressuring the quarterback during that time. Houston has been unreliable in terms of health, however, missing a total of 24 games since the beginning of the 2015 season.

Houston’s fit in the Chiefs’ new 4-3 scheme is a concern. Some think he could play strongside defensive end, but that position is earmarked as a fit for 2018 draft pick Breeland Speaks. Others believe that Houston would be a fit at strongside linebacker for the Chiefs, but paying top pass-rusher money to a linebacker is problematic. Others feel that Ford and Houston would be playing the same position in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.

So what should the Chiefs do with Houston? They’ve got a number options, so let’s take a deep dive into what those options might look like.

Do nothing

The Chiefs could keep Houston’s deal as is. He is a defensive leader of the team, and it’s extremely valuable to have several players who can get after the quarterback with success.

The Chiefs would be on the hook for a $21.1 million cap hit in 2019. Combine that number with a projected $16 million franchise tag charged to Ford, and the Chiefs are paying $37.1 million of their cap space to two pass rushers. It’s a significant investment and would likely prevent the team from doing too much in terms of signing free agents this offseason.

Restructure contract

The Chiefs could redo Houston’s deal, which would involve him taking a big pay cut for 2019. The only problem with this scenario is you can’t make money attached to NFL contracts just disappear. You can convert base salary into signing bonus, but with only one season left on Houston’s contract after 2019, there isn’t a great answer to spreading out the cap hit.

A restructure would tie the Chiefs’ hands in 2020, when Houston already has a considerable cap hit. Kansas City will need all the money they can get in the 2020 offseason to sign Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill and others. They also will likely begin extension talks with Patrick Mahomes.

Trade

Pass rushers are perhaps the most important commodities for NFL defenses. So there could be a trade market for Houston, but if fans are set on getting a big haul, they’re bound to be disappointed.

The Chiefs will be on the hook for either $7.1 million (post-June 1) or $8.6 million (pre-June 1) of Houston’s prorated bonus if he’s traded. The team Houston is traded to will be paying a combined $33 million (post-June 1) or $31.5 million (pre-June 1) in cap hit for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

That’s roughly market value for an elite pass rusher, but do other teams view Houston among that elite tier? Trading draft capital and absorbing that cap number is a significant investment. When the Chiefs start putting out feelers about the desire to trade Houston, teams will know the next step is for the Chiefs to cut him if they can’t find a trade partner.

Several teams will likely feel comfortable pursuing Houston on the open market as opposed to making a trade. It only takes one team being interested to make a trade happen, but without a few offers the Chiefs will likely get nothing more than a day two draft choice in return.

Cut

This option wouldn’t be the ideal situation, because teams never want to cut good players who contribute and are leaders on the team. With that in mind, it just might be the easiest way to alleviate the Chiefs’ salary cap worries over the next several seasons.

The Chiefs would be on the hook for prorated bonus money in terms of dead cap, but they’d save either $33 million (post-June 1) or $31.5 million (pre-June 1) million in cap space over the next two seasons. That’d allow the Chiefs plenty of cap space to extend Ford, Hill, Jones and Mahomes. There may not exist a future scenario where the Chiefs can keep Houston and their young core of star players.