mweir145 wrote:Actually, I believe he would have been close.At the time he was caught for steroids, he was about 2/3 of the way through the season with 18 HR. It is entirely possible that he could have hit 12 over the last 2 months of the season.

And it's entirely possible he would have hit like he did in April. Lots of things are possible.

mweir145 wrote:Actually, I believe he would have been close.At the time he was caught for steroids, he was about 2/3 of the way through the season with 18 HR. It is entirely possible that he could have hit 12 over the last 2 months of the season.

And it's entirely possible he would have hit like he did in April. Lots of things are possible.

mweir145 wrote:Actually, I believe he would have been close.At the time he was caught for steroids, he was about 2/3 of the way through the season with 18 HR. It is entirely possible that he could have hit 12 over the last 2 months of the season.

And it's entirely possible he would have hit like he did in April. Lots of things are possible.

Exactly.

I think GTWMA's point is that although anything is possible, we can't judge based on pure speculation. GTWMA went with the highest probability, and it turned out well for him.

I think one has to wonder how many home runs Palmeiro would have hit this season without stanzolol (sic). Also, you have to take into account how absolutely horrid he was after he came back. I have to say it is highly unlikely he would have hit 25, much less 30, this year.

mweir145 wrote:Actually, I believe he would have been close.At the time he was caught for steroids, he was about 2/3 of the way through the season with 18 HR. It is entirely possible that he could have hit 12 over the last 2 months of the season.

And it's entirely possible he would have hit like he did in April. Lots of things are possible.

Exactly.

I think GTWMA's point is that although anything is possible, we can't judge based on pure speculation. GTWMA went with the highest probability, and it turned out well for him.

I think one has to wonder how many home runs Palmeiro would have hit this season without stanzolol (sic). Also, you have to take into account how absolutely horrid he was after he came back. I have to say it is highly unlikely he would have hit 25, much less 30, this year.

I don't really take into account that period where he came back for a week or two, he wasn't really himself, and the boos were (funny enough) too much for him.

If he kept on the pace that brought him through July, I think it is entirely possible that he could have reached 30.

I don't really take into account that period where he came back for a week or two, he wasn't really himself, and the boos were (funny enough) too much for him.

If he kept on the pace that brought him through July, I think it is entirely possible that he could have reached 30.

I agree with that 110%. In any case, our whole 30 HR bet was off as soon as Raffy tested positive for steroids. That was a variable none of us could have expected. It's not like Raffy, unlike Sosa or McGwire, looked like a juiced-up monster. And with his flat-out denial before Congress, that made the scenario even more unlikely.

But you can't say that Raffy isn't a 30-HR guy by viture of this disaster of a season he has. 12 more home runs would have been pretty easy for him.