Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Predicting the 2015 Buccaneer Draft - Last Call

It’s finally here. I
guess I can now say from experience, the draft definitely does take longer to
get here when you team has the first pick.
I’m going to be as short and sweet as possible with this version. My first round mock has huge changes, and
I’ve gone a slightly different route in my Bucs draft from the last version.

As I mentioned last
time, I’m looking for the Bucs to be aggressive in this year’s draft. If they take a best-available approach rather
than drafting complimentary pieces and projects, as was a large part of last
year’s plan, they’ll find plenty of players who can contribute right away. That shouldn’t be asking for much considering
the team needs to upgrade the starting caliber talent at QB, RT, RG, DE,
WR, and FS.

Spoiler alert – Jameis is going to be the 1st
pick. He’s also very likely to take the
first snap in week 1 against the Titans.
I want the Bucs to aggressively shop Glennon to Buffalo,
Arizona, St. Louis,
Cleveland, and Houston for a R3 pick. When it comes to the next most movable piece,
Doug Martin, I’m split. I was very high
on the Bucs drafting him in 2012, but he looks far removed from the player who
showed elite talent in stretches as a rookie.
Is it worth moving him for a R5 pick prior to what will likely be his
last year as a Buc? Does the L&L
regime really want to move him bad enough to draft a back for the second year
in a row?

For the last time in 2015, here’s what I think will
happen in R1 of the NFL draft as well as what I think the Bucs should do
with their picks.

Round 1

1) TB – Jameis Winston (QB, FSU)

The Bucs acquire their most talented player at the QB
position since Vinny Testaverde, and I’ll put it on record once more – Jameis
will finish his career as the greatest Buc QB of all time. I don’t expect him to be the instant savior
of a 2-14 and perpetually downward trending franchise, but he will give
credibility to the position and lead in the establishment of a winning culture.

2) TEN – Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon)

I’ve come around. I
now believe (especially after hearing Jim Wyatt say so) that the Titans will
not take Leonard Williams at #2. I
believe that the Titans will be the team to draft Mariota but that he may be
moved to Cleveland
or (longshot) to Philly during or after the draft. I don’t think San Diego is in play. My final destination prediction (in order) – Tennessee, Cleveland, St. Louis, Philadelphia.

Also, the “where will Mariota go / end up” storyline will be
the talk of the evening, even after the Titans take him at #2. That will be the talking point, and the Bucs
and Winston will be back page news.
Surprised?

3) *ATL – Dante Fowler (DE/OLB, Florida)

Here’s your first trade of the draft. Since I believe that the R1-worthy talent
runs dry after about 15 players, I believe that we will see at least two trades
within the top 10 picks. Here’s your
first. The Falcons move up to secure the
draft’s first pass rusher.

4) OAK – Leonard Williams (DE, USC)

I’ve had the Raiders taking a WR in every prior version, but
this is the first domino of Mariota going #2.
I would take Williams here over Cooper and White. Pairing him with Fort
Pierce’s Khalil Mach would help put Oakland’s defense back on the map.

5) WAS – Vic Beasley (DE/OLB, Clemson)

The Redskins must replace Brian Orakpo, and I’ve got them
taking Beasley over an offensive lineman.

6) * CLE – Amari Cooper (WR, Alabama)

The Jets might take a receiver here themselves (I wouldn’t
if I were them), but if the first 5 picks play out like this, I think someone
will move up to take the draft’s first WR.
I believe Cleveland
could very well be that team. Who knows
when/if Josh Gordon will play again, and Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline are
ideally #2 and #3 receivers respectively.
Flip a coin in the Cooper/White talent argument, but Cooper is probably
the safer option and will be able to contribute more early on.

7) CHI – Kevin White (WR, West Virginia)

The Bears will be in position to draft either Cooper or
White or make a trade with someone who wants to move up and get them. White and Alshon Jeffrey give the Bears a
very dynamic duo at WR.

8) * JAX – Todd Gurley (RB, Georgia)

The first “WOW!” of the evening. The Jags were aggressive in their pursuit of
DeMarcos Murray. I believe they want to
make a big splash on offense, and what better way to do it than with the
local-ish stud rusher?

9) NYG – Andrus Peat (T, Stanford)

In a mild surprise, Peat beats Scherff off the board. According to reports by those closest to the
team, of the two top-rated lineman, Peat is the preference.

10) STL – Brandon Scherff (OL, Iowa)

I believe that Peat and Scherff are going to go off the
board at 9 or 10 in one of two ways. Scherff
could slot into either current openings at RG or RT.

11) * SF – DeVante Parker (WR, Louisville)

Many mocks hook Teddy Bridgewater up with his former Louisville target, but I think Minnesota is in a great spot to move down
with whoever wants the draft’s 3rd receiver. The Vikings could take Parker if they stay
here, but they’re not desperate at the position after acquiring Mike Wallace.

12) * NYJ – Bud Dupree (DE/OLB, Kentucky)

In a deal that likely nets the Jets picks on day 2 and day
3, they grab a pass rusher that might end up worthy of a top 6 pick.

13) NOR – Danny Shelton (NT, Washington)

The Saints need help everywhere. Lining up Shelton between Cameron Jordan and Akiem
Hicks is a lot of beef up front.

14) MIA – La’el Collins (OL, LSU)

With the way this draft has played out I think the Dolphins
will go OL, and both Collins and Ereck Flowers should be options. Assuming Collins is not a suspect in the
death in which he’s being questioned, he should hear his name called in the top
half of Thursday’s action. With this
pick, Miami has
quietly put together one of the better, younger offensive lines in the league.

15) * MIN – Trae Waynes (CB, MichiganState)

The Vikings are still able to pick up (arguably) the draft’s
best corner and player to whom they’ve been tied in draft conversations in the
deal down with SF.

16) HOU – Breshad Perriman (WR, UCF)

I’m not that high on Perriman, but he’s apparently going to
be selected in the early portion of R1.
I’d probably roll the dice with Randy Gregory at this point if I was
calling the shots in Houston. The potential of Gregory and Clowney on the
edges behind JJ Watt would be very intriguing.
.

17) SD – Malcom Brown (DL, Texas)

The Chargers need help up front on defense. Brown can play three downs which is key in a
division with Peyton Manning’s arm and Denver’s
run game.

18) KC – Cameron Erving (OL, FSU)

The Chiefs replace Rodney Hudson with another Nole.

19) CLE – Ereck Flowers (OL, Miami)

It might not be the glaring need, but the Browns could stand
to upgrade the RT and guard positions.
Flowers could start right away.

20) PHI – Nelson Agholor (WR, USC)

Another “WOW!”
Whoever Chip Kelly picks, it will elicit a strong reaction. Agholor gives him a guy I see as an excellent
compliment to Jordan Matthews.

21) CIN – Eddie Goldman (DL, FSU)

The Bengals need to beef up the interior, and Goldman
provides plenty of that.

22) PIT – Randy Gregory (DE/OLB, Nebraska)

The freefall ends with Pittsburgh. I think Gregory goes to a 3-4 team looking
for a rusher, and if he doesn’t go to Houston
at #16, I think he’ll slide to #22.

23) DET – Kevin Johnson (CB, WakeForest)

I don’t think we’ll see corners go early or often in
R1. Johnson at #23 is just the second
one taken in this mock.

24) ARI – Melvin Gordon (RB, Wisconsin)

This seems like one of the most ideal picks of R1. The Cardinals definitely need a RB, and
Gordon’s talents would fit well in Bruce Arians’ offense.

25) CAR – Cedric Ogbuehi (T, Texas A&M)

Still like the fit here.
Given their offseason signings, he won’t have to start right away and
can completely heal that ACL injury.

26) BAL – Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, Oklahoma)

I think this is either WR or CB, and Baltimore is one of the few teams in the
league with the leadership/stability to take on a question like DGB. If focused, he’s a steal at #26.

27) DAL – Byron Jones (CB, Connecticut)

In this mock the CB-needy Cowboys have their pick of any
corner not named Waynes
or Johnson. Hard for me to see them
going in any other direction.

28) DEN – DJ Humphries (T, Florida)

Looks like an ideal fit for what they want to run in Denver; slides in
immediately at RT.

29) IND – Damarious Randall
(FS, ArizonaState)
Will another safety really be drafted ahead of Landon Collins? Don’t count it out. Whether it’s a safety like Collins, a
defensive lineman like Arik Armstead, or a linebacker like Eric Kendricks, the
Colts must improve their defense if they want to get to the top of the AFC
heap.

30) GB – Eric Kendricks (LB, UCLA)

One of the better need/talent fits of R1. GB would be thrilled to see Kendricks be on
the board at #30.

31) NOR – Phillip Dorsett (WR, Miami)

Dorsett isn’t just a speed guy. He’s a sharp route runner and gives Sean
Payton another dynamic weapon to go with Brandin Cooks and transition from the
Coltston era at receiver.

32) NE – Mario Edwards (DL, FSU)

The Patriots finish Thursday’s action with one last “WOW!”
pick. Not many project Edwards this high,
but I believe he’ll be a much better pro than collegiate player. What better place to land than with Bill
Belichick? They spent a good bit of time
with him at FSU’s Pro Day.

Round 2

As demonstrated above, I don’t think we’ll see much movement
for draft picks from the middle of R1 on.
I don’t believe there is much of a disparity in talent from picks
15-35. Therefore, I would be very much
against the Bucs moving up to secure a player at the bottom of R1.

33) TEN – Landon Collins (S, Alabama)

Safety is a huge need for the Titans, and I’m guessing
they’d be happy to find Collins available at the top of R2.

34) TB

I’ve had the Bucs taking a tackle, specifically Jake Fisher,
in the last two versions of this exercise.
I’ve now cooled a bit on Fisher and am not so sure he’s the best option,
despite the team’s needs, at this point.

My top 5 (in no particular order) from that group, based on
my analysis of their talents and the Bucs’ needs, are: Shane Ray, Marcus Peters, Preston Smith, Jake
Fisher, and Jalen Collins.

Of those I eliminated –

I
think Armstead will go in R1 and be the biggest bust from this draft.

Harold
isn’t a fit.

OO is
overrated as a pass rusher

I love
Anthony but don’t think LB is in play at #34.

I’m
not saying a guard isn’t worth this pick, but given the other talent on
the board, I believe that Tomlinson and Cann would both be big need-leans
rather than best talent picks.

Clemmings’
project status and current injury push him out of the picture for me.

If
it’s not DGB or Agholor, I’m not interested in a WR with this pick. There’s better value in R3.

My final list comes down to two pass rushers, two corners,
and one lineman. I list Collins because
of the possibility of him playing FS. He
likely has too many questions (failed drug tests and limited on-field snaps) to
make L&L pull the trigger here, but the talent is undeniable. Same with Peters. Is he worth the headache? The talent is there, but he was obstinate
both on and off the field at Washington.

That narrows it down to Ray, Smith, and Fisher.

I believe I was lower on Ray than the consensus throughout
the draft process (#12, #13, #19, #19 in my mocks), but prior to his traffic
stop, he was a sure-fire R1 pick. Is he
worth the gamble here? Aside from his
questionable decision making, he’s dealing with a toe injury that supposedly
doesn’t need surgery, and is small for the position. Can he be an effective enough pass rusher to make
the Bucs comfortable with his questions?

Is Fisher going to be a really good LT in any offense, or
have I been ignoring/missing flaws in his game based on Oregon’s offensive style? To me, he’s a guy who can step in right away
at RT or possibly even guard with the potential to swing over to LT. Will he become strong/stout enough to really
anchor an end of the line, or is he best suited for a zone-heavy scheme?

Smith is a guy I’m much higher on that apparently the expert
consensus. In my mind, he’s the ideal
left end on this defense. He wins with
both power and speed and has a longer wingspan than Beasley, Ray, Orchard,
Fowler, and OO. Wingspan isn’t
everything, but when I look at Smith’s combination of speed, strength, hand
usage, and body type/usage, he’s what the Bucs need up front with Gerald
McCoy. A good example of Smith’s ability
to make adjustments on the move is the 3-cone drill, a drill in which he
finished 2nd to Beasley among all pass rushers at the Combine. He’ll go in R2 because he doesn’t have elite
speed or athleticism. The Bucs should
not let spend much of Friday as a spectator.

The pick – Preston Smith (DE, MississippiState)

Some may argue the talent/value with this pick, but I feel
very strongly about this prospect’s potential as a pro. Put Smith at left end with William Gholston
opposite Jacquies Smith and George Johnson, a position in question a month ago
now has some semblance of stability.

I would love to draft Flowers, Humphries or Ogbuehi here,
but they’re long since gone. Just
because the Bucs don’t get an offensive lineman with this pick doesn’t mean
that the position can’t/won’t be addressed.
I’m also not giving up on Fisher; just backing off of him as my lockdown
favorite here. I’d really be thrilled
with either one, but in the end I believe Smith is the best option of all the
players I listed.

Round 3

Again, I don’t want to force a position on a pick,
especially this early. Your selections
through the first three rounds should be players who contribute right
away. With that in mind, I know I need
to draft a starting caliber offensive lineman with one of my next two picks,
and I also still need to take advantage of the most talent-laden position group
in the draft, WR.

As I did last time, I’m dealing Glennon for a R3 pick. I’ll project the destinations in this order –
Buffalo, Arizona,
Houston, St. Louis,
and Cleveland.

Jackson
gives the Bucs an immediate upgrade at RG, and McBride steps in at the slot and
projects an eventual ideal #2 opposite Evans.
I no longer see Donovan Smith lasting until R3, and I don’t think Ty
Sambrailo is worthy of selecting this high.
Point being, I see the Bucs OT options in R3 as limited. Take the guy who can play right away, and the
fact that he blocked for the #1 pick the last two years doesn’t hurt. I think you plug Jackson in at RG now and look to address the
position again in another 8 years.

I still love Rashad Green, but even I admit that following
up Jackson with
a third Nole would be a bit much. I rank
them virtually the same for the Bucs, but I think McBride has the slightly higher
overall upside as a pro. Back on the
bandwagon! I believe that McBride might
have the best in-traffic receiving ability of any receiver in this class, and
his downfield battles for the ball fill highlight videos. His biggest knock is a lack of elite game
speed, but his route running, formation flexibility, and the ability to
consistently move the chains makes him well worth the pick here.

Round 4

So far:

R1 – Jameis Winston (QB, FSU)

R2 – Preston Smith (DE, MississippiState)

R3 – Tre’ Jackson (G, FSU)

R3 – Tre McBride (WR, William & Mary)

If I’m Licht I see my highest remaining priority as drafting
a starting caliber tackle. I had the
Bucs going FS, Derron Smith here last time, but based on how I have this
version progressing, the safety position might be the odd spot out.

The pick – Rob Havenstein (T, Wisconsin)

You want to talk about upgrading the strength on the right
side of the line? Well you’ve done it
with the Jackson and Havenstein combination.
Both players will need development in pass protection (as most rookies
do) but excel as physical run blockers right now. Yes, Havenstein projects as a right tackle
only, but that’s why he’s available in R4.
Also, I’m not of the belief that every tackle on the roster must be able
to play both sides of the line.
Havenstein will make himself plenty of money as a right side only guy.

Round 5

I had the Bucs trading Doug Martin in the last version for
the first pick in R5. This time I’m
holding onto Martin and bypassing taking a RB in the draft. Again, I’m not truly beholden to one side of
the debate over the other. Let’s see
what he can do behind an improved line and with better play at the QB
position.

I’ve taken a QB, DE, G, WR, and T so far. Since I’m holding onto Martin, I don’t need
to take a RB. The positions that would
have my attention are OL, S, CB, and LB.

The pick – Jeremiah Poutasi (OL, Utah)

I took Poutasi in an earlier draft, and I’m going back him
here. Like Jackson and Havenstein,
here’s another powerful force up front.
Poutasi played predominantly tackle at Utah,
but he would ideally be an eventual replacement for Logan Mankins at the guard
spot opposite Jackson. Centers Andy Gallik and Max Garcia would be
in play for me here as well. Get one of
those three, and I’m pleased. Also, if
they need another tackle, Laurence Gibson is the guy I like in the R5-R6
range. Ben Heeney and Ramik Wilson are
the LBs I’d pursue in this round.

Rounds 6 & 7

To close things out, I’m sticking with my three previous
picks:

Bobby McCain (CB, Memphis)

Junior Sylvestre (OLB, Toledo)

Tye Smith (CB, Towson)

Summary

I emerge from this version pleased with the work done of the
offensive side of the ball. The Bucs get
their QB, an ideal fit at WR, and three starting caliber linemen. As I detailed (excruciatingly) I think Smith
is the way to go at #34, and McCain is going to impress a lot of people with
the way he plays the slot. I would have
preferred to add a safety at some point, but we can’t always get everything we
want.