Saturday, June 17, 2017

Mosul Campaign Day 243 Jun 16 2017

Picture of destruction in Rifai neighborhood west Mosul
freed on May 17, 2017 (Baghdad Post)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) continued to have problems with their
reporting. First, Bab
al-Sinjar one of the northern entrances to the Old City district was
officially declared freed yesterday. On June
16 however, three brigades from the army’s 9th Division seized a
market there. To the north, the Federal Police said they held 30-35% of the Shifa neighborhood.
This was despite the fact that the police have been fighting over the same area
of Shifa since the end of May, and claimed that it held 60%
back on June 11. The Rapid Reaction Division was still struggling
over the Old City as well. The pressure from Baghdad to have daily reports of
progress and victories is what leads to these contradictory stories and
exaggerations.

The
National was with a unit from the 16th Division fighting in
Shifa. Because of heavy losses the division and other ISF units are relying
more and more on air strikes to move forward when they run into resistance.
This is leading to large destruction in west Mosul, and a huge number of
civilian casualties. There are plenty of people trapped in the neighborhood as
well. Many that escaped claimed they were under constant threat from the
Islamic State. This was symbolic of the combat going on in the city for months
now. The insurgents have been executing and shooting those attempting to flee
to try to maintain its hold in its last bastions of Mosul. On the other hand,
the ISF have been using more artillery, mortars, and air strikes since the
start of the west Mosul battle in February levelling that side of the city and killing
and wounding a large number of people as a result.

The Washington
Post was the latest to talk with people trapped in the Old City under IS.
They discussed the lack of water, food, the sickness and disease that is
spreading, along with the constant air strikes and artillery they are living
under. Many were afraid to escape under fear of being shot by the militants.
Coalition spokesman Ryan Dillon said that the civilian population was always
considered in air strikes, but the record shows that not to be true. The rules
of engagement are that if civilians are seen around a building it will not be
hit, but otherwise they are open game. This is despite the fact that they know
civilians are hiding inside many of them or being used as human shields. Of
course, if that was considered than no building could be hit because of those
fears. That means the Coalition has accepted the high chance of civilian
casualties as part of the collateral damage to defeat the Islamic State.

The final battle for Mosul is taking far longer than
originally admitted to by the ISF. Ninewa Operations Command’s General Najm
al-Jabouri predicted
that the city wouldn’t be liberated until July. The head of the Federal Police
General Raed Shakir Jawadat said they had
underestimated the number of IS fighters they were facing. Originally, they
believed there were just 150-300 left, but they had killed 1,800 since the
start of June. Iraqi propaganda claimed that this last campaign would be over
in just days. That was because IS was supposed to be a defeated force with most
of their men dead. This has been repeated for months now however. Again, this
is the positive messaging Baghdad has been promoting for years now, and does
nothing to explain what is actually going on.

Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi wrote about his
recent trips to Mosul in March and April 2017. First, he noticed the hodgepodge
of units securing the city and Ninewa province in general. To the east of the
city were various Hashd units. Some were Christian such as in Bartella where
two rival groups are attempting to control the town. In Gogajli and the eastern
entrances to Mosul there is the Liwa al-Shabak a Shabak Hashd group affiliated
with the Badr Organization. Inside Mosul there are the Ninewa police, Rapid
Reaction forces, the National Intelligence Agency, the Ninewa Guards, and local
tribal Hashd units not affiliated with the Hashd office. There is little to no
cooperation between these organizations. They are also not in all sections of
the city. In a northern neighborhood for example, Tamimi was warned to stay out
due to large criminality and kidnappings going on. Not only is there a
complicated security situation, but many of these groups want to establish
their own fiefs in the city, and are using their weapons to achieve control.
Second, the ISF in east Mosul are a mixed bag as well. The most effective and
respected is the Golden Division, which have largely won over the local
population, while also being the best unit. On the other hand, the Federal
Police and Rapid Reaction Division are full of members of Shiite parties and
Hashd units like Badr, Asaibh Al-Haq, Dawa, and Saraya al-Salam. They do not
have as good a reputation. Third, life has returned to much of east Mosul, but
that is because of local efforts. There are stores and markets open, there are
electricity generators supplying neighborhoods, and many of the streets and
rubble are being cleared. The government is largely absent from many of these
efforts, and a local official accused the provincial and national politicians
of being corrupt and stealing money and aid meant for the city. Fourth, Tamimi
talked about the legacy of IS upon the city. Everyone he talked to complained
about life under the militants. Of course, no one would admit to liking them
otherwise they would be arrested. Some did say people greeted the insurgents
when the city fell in 2014. That was partly because there were other groups
involved such as the Baathist Naqshibandi, not just the Islamic State. Those
organizations quickly got pushed aside by IS however. IS was committed to
construction and keeping the city clean. There were small projects, the streets
were cleaned, and generators were provided for electricity. IS took over the
school system and kept it open with its own curriculum. Few students attended
however. The biggest complaint was the strict rules the Islamists imposed on
the city. It had its Hisba police go after any all violations, which no one
liked. Finally, Tamimi warned that if security was not better coordinated, and
corruption reduced in the city the Islamic State could make a comeback. The
group acted largely as a mafia extorting money, taking over contracts, etc.,
and could easily return to those tasks if precautions were not taken.

The central government is trying to do small rebuilding
projects in Mosul and Ninewa. The Housing
Ministry was repairing and opening up streets closed by the fighting in
Mosul. It is also working on the water and sewage systems in the city and the
Ninewa Plains. Electricity has also been restored to sections of east Mosul.
The problem is a much larger effort is needed to fully bring back the city and
governorate, but Baghdad has no plan yet and little money to spend.

Another area suffering from a lack of an official plan is
revenge against IS sympathizers and their families. The Qaraya district south
of Mosul said a local tribe handed
out flyers demanding that IS relatives leave in the next 48 hours. They were
targeting up to 100 families, roughly 600 people. This followed other reports
that another tribe formed a vigilante group and was attacking IS families to
try to force them out from other towns in Ninewa. Again, the federal government
is absent because it has no reconciliation program. That will leave locals,
usually those with guns, to decide the fate of people they blame for the
Islamic State. There will be no courts involved, just guilt by association. In
turn, there will be resentment, fear and hate amongst these ostracized families
who have nowhere to go. This is happening not only here, but in other parts of
Iraq that have been liberated as well causing another future dilemma.

In the west, the army’s 15th Division was still
advancing on Tal Afar. It took
three more towns and was heading for Kask. Tal Afar has been surrounded and cut
off by the Hashd for months now. They were hoping to seize the village, but
Baghdad didn’t let them due to pressure from Turkey. Instead the army has been
given the job.

The
Guardian was farther west along the Syrian border in the town of Baaj. The
area was recently freed by the Hashd who are talking about building and
repairing roads to link with Syria. They are also turning Baaj into a military
base. The goal is to connect Iran to Syria and move men and supplies to assist
the Assad government. They are also hoping to block traditional routes for
foreign fighters to enter Iraq. Many of the Hashd groups in the west Ninewa
operation are pro-Iranian and have units fighting in Syria under Tehran’s
direction. They see the wars in the two countries as one, and are pursuing Iran’s
goals.

Displacement from Mosul is still going up. As of June
15, there were a total of 415,986 displaced (IDPs) in Ninewa. Since the
start of June 70,000 have fled Mosul. Before all of the IDPs were sent south to
Hamam al-Alil to be processed and then moved to camps or to west Mosul. Now the
ISF are taking people directly from the eastern to western sections of the city
via a pontoon bridge. From June 10-13 over 7,000 people were checked in east
Mosul. People are also returning to west Mosul to areas that are safe.

Search This Blog

About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the politics, economics, security, culture and history of Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com