HOT Article

Global Telecom Revenue expected to reach US$1.2 trillion by 2016

By Isabelle Paradis, HOT TELECOM
July 2011

According to the information released by HOT TELECOM (www.hottelecom.com) in its latest report “Global Telecom Market Status and Forecast”, the global telecom services revenue reached US$1.9 trillion in 2010, representing a 4.5% increase, an improvement compared with 2009, when revenue growth had declined to 3.8%.

Growth is expected to decline again starting in 2011 up to 2016 and telecom service revenue growth is therefore projected to slow to a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5% and revenue is expected to reach US$2.1 trillion in 2015, having surpassed the US$2.0 trillion mark in 2013.

Trends impacting the current market evolution include mobile growth reaching maturity in most markets, fixed line decline accelerating and spreading to a growing number of countries and Internet and broadband growth slowing in many regions. “Continued pressure on price, may it be in the fixed or mobile segments, the decline of mobile termination rates and roaming rates and the increased presence of Over-The-Top (OTT) players in the voice market will also contribute to the slowing of telecom service revenue growth over the next 5 years” HOT TELECOM’s president Isabelle Paradis said.

By year-end 2010, the global aggregate number of fixed, mobile and Internet subscribers grew by 10.8% to over 7.2 billion. Nevertheless, for the first time in 2011, the growth in total telecom subscribers should drop into the single digits to 7.7%. This is mainly due to the fact that many regions are nearing saturation in each of these sectors. The growth in the number of total telecom subscribers should continue to slow over the forecasted period with a forecasted CAGR of 5.1% over the next 5 years to nearly 9.2 billion at the end of 2015. The growth in number of subscribers will continue to mainly be driven by new broadband and mobile connections.

This 83-page report, which includes 48 detailed exhibits on the global market, confirms fixed broadband will continue to be the fastest growing telecom sector, after mobile broadband, with a forecasted global CAGR of 6.7% over the next 5 years. The bulk of the broadband percentage growth will continue to come from low broadband penetration regions such as MEA, Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe. With the proliferation of 3G phones, WiMax and LTE in the coming years, broadband mobile is expected to be the fastest growing segment over the next 5 years.

When analysing the global telecom market on a regional basis, Asia is the largest region by far and now represents 47.4%, 49.0%, 37.3% and 37.5% of the world’s fixed, mobile, Internet and broadband subscribers respectively. MEA will continue to suffer from the lowest penetration rate in all segments, with penetration rates as low as 7.5%, 61.5%, 3.3% and 1.4% in the fixed, mobile, Internet and broadband sectors respectively in 2010.

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