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“Many clinicians and policymakers view decision analytic modeling as interesting but ultimately esoteric and unhelpful (1). Anecdotally, model users find it difficult to know when they can “trust the model” and often express bewilderment when confronted with data sources from a wide range of study designs, personal opinions, and convergence with the target population.” Ann Intern Med. 2007;146:133-141.

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Decision Analysis expected utility: The hypothesis in economics that the utility (happiness) of a person facing uncertainty is calculated by considering utility in each possible state and constructing a weighted average. The weights are the agent's estimate of the probability of each state.

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“Many clinicians and policymakers view decision analytic modeling as interesting but ultimately esoteric and unhelpful (1). Anecdotally, model users find it difficult to know when they can “trust the model” and often express bewilderment when confronted with data sources from a wide range of study designs, personal opinions, and convergence with the target population.” Ann Intern Med. 2007;146:133-141.

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QALY quality adjusted life-year (QALY) A measure of the outcome of actions in terms of their health impact. –If an action gives a person an extra year of healthy life expectancy, that counts as one QALY. –If an action gives a person an extra year of unhealthy life expectancy (partly disabled or in some distress), it has a value of less than one. – Death is rated at zero

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Berechnung: Quality-Adjusted Life Years If, HRQL= 0.7 And, A treatment gives 10 extra years of life (@ 0.7 per year ) Then…. People receiving the treatment gain Seven Quality-Adjusted Life Years (7 QALYs)