Diaries

Though prediction is an inaccurate science, I enjoy the exercise. My predictions weren't very accurate during the RR and Hoke years, but they have been since Harbaugh came to town. I predicted 9-3 in 2015 (we went 9-3), 10-2 in 2016 (we went 10-2) and 9-3 in 2017 (we went 8-4). This, of course, could be dumb luck. But I think it's more a function of predictability. What you see is mainly what you get with Harbaugh, at least so far.

So what do I see for 2018? An improved but still flawed team playing against a tougher slate of opponents.

What follows is a breakdown of that argument. Keep in mind that this is just a preliminary analysis--I'll do a follow-up sometime in August, when there's more information available. Here's where I see things right now:

Defense

We lose our best player (Hurst), but bring back nearly everyone else from 2017’s #10 defense (according to Bill Connelly’s S&P metric). This includes 6 players who project to be All-B1G or better (Gary, Winovich, Bush, K. Hudson, Hill and Long) and far better depth than we had in 2017. Combine that with the apparent upgrade in our S&C program, and you’re looking at a defense that should be stronger, faster and have more stamina than our already strong and fast 2017 defense.

We were also a very young defense in 2017, and the things we were not so great at were a function of our youth. The extra year should thus translate into fewer of the bad things that come from a lack of on-field experience (e.g. penalties, missed assignments, coverage breakdowns) and more of the good things that happen when you build knowledge of offensive tendencies (e.g. PBUs, interceptions, keeping contain on option plays).

In short, we should go from being a top 10 S&P defense to being a top 5 S&P defense, and may even match our senior-laden, NFL-bound 2016 defense in overall performance.

Offense

There are reasons to be optimistic about our offense too, though equally there are reasons for concern. Let’s start with the good stuff. We began 2017 unclear whether we would be a zone- or gap-blocking team. Gap blocking won because we were better at it, but we wasted a lot of time and reps to the ill-fated experiment with inside zone.* We start 2018 as a team with a clear blocking identity and an excellent trio of inside linemen to make it happen.

Youth among the receiving corps was another issue for us in 2017. Junior Grant Perry, playing out of the slot, was our most consistent receiver. Elsewhere the receiving corps was a flawed work in progress. Our most immediately productive freshman WR, Tarik Black, went down in the 3rdgame of the season, while our greatest raw talent, DPJ, needed more time to develop than he was given. Our sophomore receivers (Crawford and McDoom) disappointed, though a pair of underclassmen TEs (Gentry and McKeon) flashed tantalizing skillsets. Route running improved over the course of the year, but was never great—even by the bowl game. None of the receivers, aside from Perry, understood what to do when passing plays broke down, often leaving John O’Korn (or Brandon Peters, but mostly O’Korn) running around with no one to go to.

With Black returning from injury and everyone else a year older, stronger and wiser, we project to have the receiving corps we needed last year—the kind that is the right place at the right time, and the kind that knows what to do when plays break down. We are likely to see improvement in every facet, from blocking to catching, and from route running to timely improvisations. And, because they will play with more knowledge and discipline, we are also likely to see more of the athleticism advantage that players like DPJ and Gentry have over the defensive backs assigned to cover them.

Then there is our two-headed monster at tailback: Higdon (1a) and Evans (1b). By the end of 2017, both were running with vision and decisiveness—a combination we’ve lacked at the position since Toussaint’s one good year (and before that, Mike Hart). I don’t expect either to improve much over that late season renaissance, but I do expect them both to run that way from the get-go this time, which should result in one or both surpassing the 1,000-yard mark. I also expect them to improve in pass blocking, an area where neither was particular effective last year. (I’m unclear how much of an improvement can be expected, but even a moderate uptick would save a few plays per game—and by extension, a few drives—from implosion.)

Finally, there is the all-important QB position. Last year we started (1) a version of Speight suffering PTSD, (2) a madly-scrambling and erratic John O’Korn and (3) Brandon Peters with the training wheels on. None were very good, but injuries (to Speight and Peters) also meant that the team could never get used to one style of play.

Poor performance at the QB position in 2017 was not just the QBs’ fault, though no QB was good enough to overcome the offense’s structural flaws. Peters was the best of the bunch, though even he played like a first-year starter who the staff didn’t quite trust to win (and not lose) games. When given the chance to grab pole position for 2018, against South Carolina in the Outback Bowl, he flubbed it.

This year we bring in Shea Patterson, who has been described as “Tate Forcier but goes to class.” That seems fairly accurate. Another way to describe him, though, would be “John O’Korn but better.” His skillset is a lot like O’Korn’s, but Patterson is a better runner, has a stronger arm and is a more accurate passer. To put it in perspective, if he starts for us last year, but everything else stays the same, we probably beat both MSU and OSU.

Now, the bad. We experienced poor play from the OT position last year, thanks to (1) Mason Cole playing out of position (a function of necessity), (2) the staff’s disastrous decision to pass on Eric Swensen in 2015 and (3) the also bad decision to start Nolan Ulizio over JBB. Once JBB took over RT, coupled with the commitment to gap blocking, we started to develop a more effective running game. But pass protection remained poor throughout.

This year we project to start JBB, who could not pass protect in 2017, at LT—where he will cover the QB’s blindside. We will start either the guard-sized Runyun or a redshirt freshmen (J. Hudson or Filiaga) at RT. Of course, if Grant Newsome comes back, and can play at or near his 2016 level, then the problem is solved—JBB can move back to RT, where his pass protection issues are less of a problem, while the freshmen can ease into their future roles as starters by being our backups in 2018. But nobody knows if Newsome will be able to come back from his injury, or whether this is advisable for his long-term health. Even if he does come back, he will have been away from contact for almost two years. Rust would be expected. So I don’t expect him to be our savior in 2018. In all likelihood, we will have to work with a bad set of options, and this is likely to create problems against the small number of good defenses on our schedule (ND, MSU, Wisconsin and OSU).

*It’s unclear whether we lost games as a result of this poor strategic decision, but it’s plausible that the MSU game goes differently if we had come in to it with a more effective running game.

Michigan vs. The Schedule

Michigan’s schedule is either the toughest in the FBS or one of the toughest. We play all 3 rival schools away, and draw Wisconsin, Northwestern and Scott Frost-edition Nebraska as our Big 10 West crossover games. By my count, there are 7 potentially difficult games on the schedule this year (@ND, vs. Nebraska, @NW, vs, Wisconsin, vs. PSU, @MSU, @OSU). For comparison’s sake, there were 5 last year (Florida, vs. MSU, @PSU, @Wisconsin, vs. OSU).

On the other hand, a couple of those games will be easier than they were, or would have been, in 2017. ND projects to have a good defense, but they got torched in the spring game. Their offensive line, meanwhile lost multiple starters to the NFL. Though I don’t quite expect to win the game in South Bend, I think it’s winnable—more so than a hypothetical matchup between 2017 ND and 2017 Michigan.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, should be about the same as they were last year, but we should be a significantly better team andwe play them at home. The biggest difference, though, should be PSU. They return an excellent QB (McSorley) and an OL that looks to improve on a shaky performance in 2017. At the same time, they lose a generational talent (Barkley), a near impossible to cover TE (Gesicki), their best WR (Hamilton) and the heart of a pretty good defense (Cabinda and Allen). Most importantly, they lose the Joe Moorhead, whose RPO-based offense fueled PSU’s 2016 transformation. And who did they replace him with? A long-time Franklin guy. That’s a big net loss. Oh, and we play them at the Big House, where they often struggle—instead of at Beaver Stadium, where we often struggle.

Projected Record, Based on Available Information and Reasonable Conjecture

It’s not possible to accurately predict our record with so many unknowns, both on our side and among our competitors. But given what we do know and what it looks like we can assume at this point, I see us going 9-3. In fact, I think the season will be quite similar to 2015. Here’s how that breaks down:

1. OSU. This will be the most difficult game on the schedule. We could win, but based on what we know now, they project to be the more complete team. Given that and recent history, it seems more prudent to expect a road loss from this one than an upset win.

2. ND. They will benefit from playing at home and playing us in week one. I expect this game to be a bit like Utah in 2015—hard fought but ultimately uphill for us. Of course, this is also what I thought would happen against Florida last year, so who knows. We could easily win; I just don’t see convincing enough reasons to predict that we will.

3. MSU. I think we win this one. Dantonio was right: home field advantage doesn’t mean all that much in this series anymore. In fact, I don’t think playing them away is much different from playing them at home. And while they were clearly ahead of us last year, we have more potential for growth.

4. The rest. I’m not sure who else we lose to, as we can win every other game on our schedule. But given the big fat question marks at OT, I see us dropping one more game—possibly on the road, or at home against Wisconsin. Probably Wisconsin.

Unverified Voracity Seeks Novelty. There’s a picture of the $290,000 personal check that Beilein wrote to WVU for his buyout. Also, he is in on a CA PG named Darius Morris.

Mailbag: How do Rodriguez’s recruits compare to those at WVU? And will ‘M’ produce as much pro talent and if not will that hurt the brand? Will there ever be a playoff and wouldn’t it diminish the regular season?

May 5 - Monday

Recruiting update. VA RB David Wilson’s recruitment is heating up. ‘M’ is in on him, but VA Tech seems likely.

Unverified Voracity Drop its H. Uh oh, Rodriguez has given #1 to JT Floyd, and Braylon isn’t happy. In hindsight, this sounds more like sarcasm, but apparently not in 2008.

Edwards, poised to be one of the dominant NFL receivers of the next ten years, is going to be a resource both financial and otherwise no matter what happens here. But there's no reason to annoy him, or annoy fans who like a tradition that dates back 30 years (Tyrone Butterfield excepted), or remove whatever small recruiting juju exists when you dangle the 1 in front of a kid who knows what it means.

May 8 - Thursday

Rodriguez has been touring as many alumni club meetings as he can, and attendee reports are gathered here.

I asked him what the strongest position group on the team is so far; I was hoping he'd reply "defensive line" or "tailback" because that'd at least confirm my hope that U-M will be kickass at something this year. He leaned back and scratched his chin and told me he'd not thought about it like that, but he'd have to say: linebackers. I was a little surprised. My girlfriend told him that I'd been expecting he'd say "defensive line." He said, "Yeah, but your boyfriend's not thinking about some of those freshmen we have coming in." How to take that? I don't know. Either the whole team blows worse than I'd feared or he's extremely impressed with that handful of four-stars he and Lloyd scored.

Recruiting Update. Things seemed done at QB with Newsome and Beaver; however, there are persistent rumors that Tate Forcier will still commit. Rumors almost as persistent as Brian calling him Jason. Also, Keith Nichol is transferring from Oklahoma and might end of up ‘M’ too.

Banner contest time! Unfortunately, last year’s winner only lasted a few days before the Horror. The nice thing is that the post includes a screen shot of pink MGoBlog in those early days of September.

After a few days pounding away at MGoBlog 3.0, my initial reaction is: this is going to be so cool if I don't go insane and do something rash like challenge Charlie Weis to deep-fried-butter-eating contest or try to dunk on Jason Maxiell. If you've got mad Drupal chops and can answer questions like "Images: wtf?" and "WYSIWIG editors: wtf?" and "am I going to kill performance by enabling like 600 modules, wtf?" please drop me a line.

May 29 - Thursday

Brian needs to get some things off his chest regarding sports blogs. His grievances are:

Creepily Stalking Hotties

Erin Andrews (this is specific to the first)

Picks Column

“Blank Nation”

Countdown Posts

May 30 - Friday

So the baseball team is in the NCAA tournament. They are a #2 but actually hosting their regional. They are joined by Arizona, Kentucky, and EMU.

May 31 - Saturday

Baseball regional open thread. ‘M’ lost to Arizona and will play Kentucky in the elimination game.

The Lions just selected Da'Shawn Hand in the fourth round and enough of you sick people asked for this to be published. Some of the videos and photos have disappeared, which will happen when something sits untouched for over four years.

In a nationally televised announcement on NBCSN, five-star Woodbridge (VA) DE Da'Shawn Hand revealed his choice to attend Michigan over fellow finalists Alabama and Florida. Hand was long thought to be a Michigan lean after multiple campus visits were capped by an official to the Notre Dame game; the Wolverines had to sweat out a late push by the Tide and, well, not so much Florida, to secure the pledge of Rivals's #1 overall prospect.

Hand is Michigan's 16th commit in the 2014 class and their third along the defensive line, joining UT NT Bryan Mone and MI DE Lawrence Marshall. Depending on where you look, he's either the top-ranked or second-ranked prospect in the class, right up there with Jabrill Peppers.

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

GURU RATINGS

Scout

Rivals

ESPN

247

247 Comp

5*, #2 DE,
#10 Ovr

5*, #1 SDE,
#1 Ovr

5*, 93, #2 DE,
#6 Ovr

5*, 100, #1 SDE,
#5 Ovr

5*, #1 SDE,
#4 Ovr

PRETTY, PRETTY GOOD.

As you can see, Hand is a unanimous choice for five-star honors, regarded as a top-two defensive end in the 2014 class by all four services; ranked as high as first overall and no lower than tenth, he's the #4 player in the 247 Composite. There's good reason he's been arguably the nation's most talked-about recruit for over a year.

The services are in relative agreement about Hand's size: he's listed at 6'4" on three of the four sites (Scout gives him an extra inch), and three of the four peg his weight at 260-262 pounds (247 lists him at 254). Rivals and 247 both list him as a strongside DE, while the other two don't make distinctions between strongside and weakside; as you'll see, he has the frame and ability to play anything from weakside end to three-tech tackle—at Michigan, he's expected to begin at WDE, though he may end up fitting best on the strong side.

SCOUTING

Where to begin? I guess I'll start with the 2012 edition of The Opening, Nike's elite invite-only camp, in which Hand was the only underclassman defensive lineman to earn an invite; despite being a year younger than everyone else, Hand earned top DE honors from 247:

Best – Da’Shawn Hand – Hand was the only underclassman defensive lineman in attendance but he didn’t look like an underclassman. Though he didn’t take as many reps as other defenders, it was obvious when his reps took place. Hand has great quickness and burst off of the edge and shows an elite athleticism that is coupled with a rare frame. Where he really impressed us though was the way he was able to add power to his game and really jolt the seniors that tried to out-physical him.

1. SDE Da'Shawn Hand, Woodbridge (Va.): The No. 1 prospect in the country did not disappoint on the first day of camp. He clearly dominated during the one-on-one session and was eager to make his way to the front of the line. Against the best, he made everything look effortless. His first step, his quick hands and his strong counter moves were pulled off with grace, and offensive linemen were pretty much rendered helpless.

Hand also won defensive line MVP honors at the Columbus NFTC, where 247 likened him to a bigger, quicker Noah Spence, a 2012 five-star who cracked Ohio State's rotation as a freshman. At The Opening, however, Hand had an inconsistent performance that eventually caused him to fall down Scout's rankings. Scout's Brian Dohn ($):

During the first day, which was not in pads, Hands was very good in getting around the corner and to the quarterback. He also mixed in an inside move in which he caught to the offensive tackle off balance and had a clear path to the quarterback.

However, on the second day (shoulder pads and shorts) Hand had mixed results. There were times he got leverage around the edge, dipped his shoulder and got to the quarterback, but also times in which he was handled easily. The biggest thing was once an offensive lineman delivered his initial punch and took control of the block, Hand had trouble getting off of it and getting back into the play. He didn’t flash quick hands to keep the offensive lineman off him, and at times was easily blocked.

Hand then won two of three one-on-one reps against the top 2014 guard, Damien Mama, on the third and final day, including the rep GIF'd at the top of this post. He wasn't as dominant as Scout would've liked for a player ranked #1 in the country; even with an inconsistent camp showing they only dropped him to #11 overall, and he's moved up a spot since then.

At 6-foot-4 and over 250-pounds, Hand is so explosive off the line and uses his great length and strength to keep the offensive lineman off of him. One of the best things about Hand is his balance. When he takes an outside route to rush the passer, he can dip his inside shoulder so low that offensive linemen have a very hard time end getting a hand on him. He also has incredible strength and plays with such good leverage that he never gets pushed backwards.

I started to bold the important parts of that paragraph and ended up highlighting the whole thing. Great strength, hands, leverage, and balance is a hell of a skill set for a high school defensive lineman.

ESPN's evaluation is quite measured considering their lofty ranking of Hand; I'll focus on their run defense portion since the camp stuff is almost entirely pass-rush focused:

Will read and react well to what is going on in front of him and can quickly get himself in position versus the run. Demonstrates the ability to fire out low and generate good power on contactwith hip roll and when he brings his hands he has the reach and upper body strength to separate and shed. Will come across the ball and squeeze and work well laterally with good short-area change-of-direction. Needs to be more consistent at shooting his hands and quickly extending.Also needs to work to be more consistent with his pad level as he can bend and play in a good football position, but can also show a tendency to quickly rise up and play tall.

They conclude that he's a physically-talented, well-rounded player with considerable upside if he puts it all together.

How does this all translate to the high school football field? Quite well, as you probably guessed. Rivals's Adam Friedman watched Hand dominate Stonewall Jacksoon (the high school, not the Confederate general) in September, naming him that weekend's top performer in the mid-Atlantic region ($):

The nation's top prospect sure played like it on Friday night. Hand had 10 tackles, three for a loss, and topped it off with a blocked punt. His explosiveness at the snap was too much for the Stonewall Jackson offensive line to handle. Hand could do an inside rush, outside rush, split the double team and pretty much anything else he wanted. What's even more impressive is that Stonewall Jackson ran away from his side nearly every time.

In a TideSports.com compilation of opposing coach quotes on how they try to deal with Hand, it's no surprise that Stonewall Jackson's coach had the best one ($):

"We needed a dump truck to get him out of the way," Stonewall Jackson High head coach Mike Dougherty said. "We ran away from him, tried to double team him inside and outside, and for two years we had a tough time trying to deal with him. He's just so explosive that you can't plan your game around [him] because it's not going to work."

So, what do we have here? At the very least, a defensive end who's exceptionally strong for his size, explosive off the snap, and versatile enough to play multiple positions along the line. If he continues to develop his technique, the sky's the limit.

Hand is also universally regarded as a mature, cerebral guy off the field who's very motivated academically. Yes, he fits The Pattern™.

OFFERS

Hand had 60+ offers from a laundry list of college football powers before he even reached his senior year of high school; I won't even bother listing them, as his finalists speak for themselves. The most important thing is that the answer to this question is still 'no':

A Michigan Man, indeed.

HIGH SCHOOL

Woodbridge (VA) Senior High School isn't exactly a talent factory: not only is Hand their first five-star prospect in the Rivals era (2002-present), the only four-star prospect, 2009 RB De'Antwan Williams, got limited playing time at Rutgers before transferring to University of Indiana at Pennsylvania. Ten prospects total, including Hand, show up in the Rivals database, and seven were two-star or unranked recruits.

As for the team itself, the Vikings have won six games in each of the last four years, though that will change if they win their first-round playoff game tomorrow night.

STATS

Hand's 247 profile features stats from each of his first three high school seasons. As a junior, he tallied 78 tackles, 40(!) TFLs, 16 sacks, and three fumble recoveries. That followed a sophomore campaign in which he amassed 84 tackles, 14 TFL, 21 sacks, and three fumble recoveries en route to earning All-American honors for the first time. He started the final six games of his freshman season and finished that year with 65 tackles, five TFLs, three sacks, and three fumble recoveries. Production has not been an issue, to say the least.

FAKE 40 TIME

Thanks to Hand's multiple combine appeances, ESPN has an electronically-timed, zero-FAKEs 40 time of 4.95 seconds, pretty solid for a high school defensive lineman.

VIDEO

247/Bleacher Report combined to put out a video breakdown of Hand's junior highlights:

[video disappeared]

Video with interview from The Opening this summer, from which I pulled the GIF at the top of the post:

Scout single-game reel from a game this fall:

More single-game cut-ups going back to 2011 can be found on Hand's Hudl page, though it hasn't yet been updated with any senior film.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

I'm in agreeance with the scouting services that Hand fits best at strongside DE; he's got the requisite size and strength to hold up against double-teams, and while he's also an excellent pass-rusher the Wolverines have several edge-rush threats—from Frank Clark to Mario Ojemudia to Taco Charlton to 2014 classmate Lawrence Marshall—who more naturally fit on the weak side. With how much Greg Mattison moves around his defensive linemen, I'm not sure the distinction matters too much at this point, anyway; depending on how Hand's body develops, he could be anything from a weakside DE to a three-tech DT.

Another prediction: he'll be good. Bold, I know.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Michigan is at 16 commits, which would put them one player above the 85-man limit next year if the team renewed every fifth-year senior and didn't suffer any attrition, which... never happens. In all likelihood, they'll have room for two or three more prospects. The top priority is top-50 Southfield DT Malik McDowell. After initially looking like they were fine not taking a running back in the class, Michigan has renewed their pursuit of CO ATH Kalen Ballage and offered Cal RB commit Vic Enwere today—while the reasoning behind the new interest in getting a back is unclear, the fact that the Wolverines want one is apparent. Michigan is also in pursuit of Glenville defensive backs Marshon Lattimore and Erick Smith and OK S Steven Parker, though all three are probably longshots at this point.

The highlight of the Michigan football team's trip to France is a visit to Normandy. For anyone who has been there, Normandy is a compelling reminder of American valor. As General Mark Clark once put it:

If ever proof were needed that we fought for a cause and not for conquest, it could be found in these cemeteries. Here was our only conquest: All we asked...was enough...soil in which to bury our gallant dead.

But one aspect of the D-Day story that doesn't always get told is the role of all-black military regiments at a time when the U.S. military was segregated. One key regiment was the 320th Barrage Balloon Battalion, whose members were strapped to the blimp-shaped balloons armed with explosives that hung in the air to block the Luftwaffe's ability to strafe the Allied troops below.

"Saving Private Ryan," the film Ira Weintraub and others have encouraged the football team to watch on the flight to France, had an all-white cast. As an NAACP spokesperson once noted,

The most frequent comment about [Saving Private Ryan] is that it's the most realistic depiction ever done of the war, and yet there are no black people anywhere, not even among the extras.

Think about this: many of those black soldiers, like Corporal William Garfield Dabney of Roanoke, Virginia, were from the segregated South. After the war, Dabney got a degree in electrical engineering. But he couldn't find work in his field, because no one would hire him. So he became a carpet layer and tile setter. Dabney and his comrades were risking their lives to protect the freedom of those who wished to discriminate against them.

Thankfully, there are ways to remedy the Saving Private Ryan problem, so that the team can learn about the role of African-American regiments in the Normandy invasion.

While Isaiah Bell and Teric Jones are "under the radar" "sleepers" at this point in time, Justin Turner is "wicked sweet" and "maybe the best prospect in Ohio." He's currently #42 in the Rivals 100, and #137 at Scout.

April 4 - Friday

Unverified Voracity is Like a Free Ride. Football spring practice is way more open than it used to be. Also, it turns out the Ann Arbor News was less than ethical in its reporting on academics and ‘M’ student-athletes.

Even the women will do this. It does not matter that this fan, grad, or provost might, say, be a 180 pound 5'2" woman, or, more commonly, a moderately in-shape girl with a blond dye job and a face Sarah Jessica Parker would find unpleasantly equine.

April 8 - Tuesday

Recruiting update with a brief run down on each position group. MN WR Bryce McNeal is a possibility to commit soon. NJ DE Anthony LaLota, OH RB Fitzgerald Toussaint, and AZ DE Craig Roh have been added to the board.

Mailbag. Will ‘M’ football have a night game? Which is better, Rivals or Scout?

I must confess to having considerably less experience with Scout than one might expect. I was briefly a subscriber there but let it lapse. (Subscribing to two separate recruiting websites is a bridge too far even for me.) Also, I've never gotten either site's magazine. I've leafed through a copy of The Wolverine or two and it seemed fine for something on "paper" or whatever you call it. From what I've gathered, Scout's mag is weak sauce that only exists so the U can't turn them down for press credentials and the like.

Scout and Rivals are extremely different sites. The Wolverine is amongst the most professional recruiting sites out there. Go Blue Wolverine is a cult. This isn't all bad for GBW, since the cult is based around Tom Beaver, the chief koolaid purveyor* in all of Wolverine land. Name a personality disorder and Beaver probably has it: megalomania, workaholism, ellipses fetishization, schizophrenia, obsessive-compulsive disorder. Slightly over half of these are very annoying; the other half are useful.

April 14 - Monday

Game column for Michigan’s loss to Notre Dame in the Frozen Four. It’s a very poignant piece, as Brian relates his observations of Billy Sauer’s mother.

Justin Boren is a communist. Past that, the threat level here is pink or orange or whatever is equivalent to "the nukes are on their way." Virtually every observer has called the offensive line a Sauer -- zing -- this spring, and when Rodriguez made the quarterbacks live for a brief period Threet was immediately knocked out with a minor injury.

April 17 - Thursday

Unverified WHAT? Voracity YEAH. Tressel is back to bringing up “gentlemen’s agreements” within the Big 10. Now Rodriguez is being asked about it again, and Brian thinks this type of journalism is terrible.

Hey! They're just like us. Except their team finished 50th, 5th and15th in total offense the past two years while Michigan was 55th, 38th and 68th. It's surreal to see these guys complaining about "DickFraud" (LOL!!1!) like he's Mike Debord.

Jake Long was the first overall pick in the NFL draft. Brian takes the occasion to run down recent ‘M’ OLs, and try to figure out why that position group got really bad around 2001/2002. Andy Moeller maybe?

First let me appologize and say thanks to my son Sam. He talked me into going to the game in San Antonio. He had decided to go and encouraged me to consider going with him. I fussed over it for about three days then started checking airline flights and realized there was no way to do it without spending thousands of dollars. He had purchased tickets and was going with or without me. This created in me serious case of FOMO. I am old enough that I might not get another chance to watch us play for another national championship. So I wrangled the air and car and hotel and called Sam to let him know I was in.

I love him even more because he asked me to go with him even though I was once called the worst fan in America by Bobby Knight in a post game interview after we beat Indiana at Crisler many years ago. I harrassed him from the second row behind the Indiana bench for the whole game. Sam knows that I am always cry about the refs. He hates it when I crab about them but he still called me and asked me to go to the games with him anyway. Thanks Sam. I love you very much. I explained to him that I was just spending his inheritance anyway.

Sam was fortunate that we were too far away during the Loyola game to be sure about ref calls. We were in the upper deck. We were seated close to some Michigan fans and enjoyed the struggle and the comeback win over Loyola so I was less crabby than usual. The seats were actually pretty good if you did not care about the officiating and just wanted to watch the game. We celbrated the win over Loyola only briefly as we watched Villanova completely destroy Kansas in a matter of minutes the way we had Texas A and M. The next day, the experts were picking Villanova 80% to beat us. We had a sense of forboding and talked for hours about what strategy might beat what looked like a super team. We found last minute tickets and watched the Spurs beat the Rockets on Easter Sunday. They played great defense and shut down Harden almost completely. This gave me some hope that our D could shut down Brunson and companuy but it was not to be.

Speaking of Brunson, while waiting in line for breakfast on Monday, we spoke with a Michigan grad who was at the game to root for Villanova. When Brunson was in high school in Chicago, Brunson was his sons baby sitter. There he was, a Michigan grad with a Villanova shirt on ready to go to the game with his son. They had come to see Brunson play in the national title game. He had no mixed emotions. He said Brunson was a wonderful young man and I believe him.

We decided to get the best seats we could for the championship game. Ticket prices were falling as Kansas and Loyola fans bailed. We got excellent seats opposite the Michgan bench in the 12th row. This meant that I was crabbing all of the first half of the game game about bad calls and crabbing at the Villanova fan next ot me. I was sure we were getting hosed. My son had to tell me multiple times to chill and leave the Villanova fans alone.

Looking back, things really began to fall apart at the 13 minute mark. It was the downside of a full moon which for me had always been a dicey night when I was on call as a young doctor. We started the game strong defensively and had no fouls over the first 7 minutes. We had hit a couple threes and they had missed some well contested threes. The score is 14 to 8. I am feeling pretty good. Then it starts to happen. Just about every call starts going against us and the refs seem blind to the same fouls when committed by Villanova. I get crabby and Sam has to remind me over and over to chill. By the end of the half, I know we are doomed and I am feeling like the refs have stolen it. Other than DiVincenzo, we have been pretty much shut down but we are in more foul trouble. By the time we are down by double digits going away in the second half, I have stopped crabbing about the calls but those 13 minutes of the first half were haunting me. I decided to wait until I was home and had some time to grieve a bit before I watched a TV replay to see if I was correct that we were getting hosed.

We were. You can use this guide to watch the game again if you can stand it. You will see how one sided the refs were. On the other hand we couldn't hit an open three and that was probably our doom not the refs. So here is the 13 minute sequence of doom. It made me feel better to know that I can still know a hosing when I see one.

12:50- Rahk has just made a three and tries another long one and he gets an elbow in the chest from POY as he finishes. No call. (Robinson was wide open for a pass right at the 3 point line).

12:44- We fail to get back in transition. This leads to a three pointer made on the other end by Donte (You Know Who).

12:26- Rahk drives to the hoop and gets pushed pretty firmly in the back but makes the layup. This is probably an ok no call except..

12:06- …immediately on the other end YKW drives to the hoop is barely pushed by Simpson and we get called. It’s back to back to back identical plays. They get a call we do not.

11:51- Poole get fouled on a layup and makes the foul shot.

11:40- Simmons is leans into the POY as the ball is coming up. POY spins grabs Simmons arm and pulls him over his back. Foul called on Simmons. I suppose this is just a crafty move but the ref who calls it is behind the play and cannot see POY grab Simmons arm. On the subsequent inbounds he gets the ball and jumps sideways into Simmons as he is sliding and giving ground thus making contact and throwing his head back to make it look like it was Simmons initiating the contact. I suppose this was just another crafty move. Announcer says “Kind selling it a little bit but as POY you can do that”.

11:18- They miss a 3 and Poole gets totally head smacked over the back and they get the ball and missed another 3 and Robinson blocks out YKW very nicely but as YKW falls down and Robinsons elbow is at a level the touches his face and Robinson is called for a foul on a good box out. Basically, two over the back calls in a row missed.

10:02- Wagner get a pass near the baseline and is pushed hard with two hands in the back and gets no call. He has to spin back and the ball gets stripped and there is a scramble that could have been a foul on anyone so it is a jump. After the inbounds, Wagner gets an open 3 and air balls it as the clock runs down. My sense of doom begins.

9:45- YKW runs the ball up after the miss. Rhak strips it and the ball hits his chin from the force of the strip and he throws his head back and Rhak gets called. You can see this is not a foul on the slo mo replay but in real time it looks bad. Soon after Brunson carries the ball right in front of the ref and no call.

8:56- Mathews is down to just seconds to shoot and is probably fouled on the shot but close.

8:30- Livers misses an open 3. On the rebound, YKW goes over the back on Teske and POY gets the rebound right under him and throws a full hard deliberate shoulder into Teske as he goes up the floor right in front of the ref. No call.

8:20- Simpson strips the POY which actually helps him as he regains his dribble and drives and shoulders in again on Teske who is helping. Hegets minor contact and then sells the foul. Three of these in 5 minutes. They score off the next inbounds and it is now 21 to 18

7:36- Teske gets a pass from Simpson on the pick and roll. Spellman grabs him and the crowd groans as there is no call. This is at least as much or more contact than POY got on his call against Teske. Spellman then steps into to him twice as he tries to shoot. No call. On the miss, there is a scramble for the rebound and Mathews gets called for a foul. They make both ends of the one. It is now 21 to 20.

6:45 – We defend well again but then miss two open threes in a row with a good offensive rebound in between. We have not scored in about 5 minutes now. We turned it over several times and missed multiple open threes. At this point I know it is going to be a bad night. We have had seven fouls called on us to one on them over these 5 minutes. We have scored 7 points and they have scored 12. We have several players with two fouls. It will change the intensity of the defense we can play. They are in the 1 and 1 with over 7 minutes left and are a great free throw shooting team.

6:05 YKW goes off and we are down by 2.

5:45 Rhak drives and gets our first basket in 5 minutes. He is smacked in the face on the way. No call

Over the rest of the half we continue to miss open threes. They get away with a goal tend when they pin Simpson’s ball after it hit the back board and they get possession and then they hit a three. We have gone another three minutes without scoring at this point and we are down by 9 at the half.

It wonder if the refs were just as bad in the second half but by then I stopped watching the officials and just asssumed that the fix was in. I know that this team deserved better. I am glad I was there with my son who I love. I know that officiating basketball is hard as I have done it. You only know you have done a decent job when no one notices it. Go Blue.