Open Thread

Here’s what I think would be the best results coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire for the Governor if she is actually reconsidering (keep in mind that at no point has she said explicitly that she’s reconsidering):

The reasoning is that the Ron Paul Revolution winning in Iowa and New Hampshire discredits the entire process, which makes it easier for a late entrant. Republican voters are less likely to view a late entrant as a spoiler or "someone trying to win it without working as hard as the others" if the process preceding the late entrant’s arrival has been completely discredited. The easiest way for the process to be discredited is for a non-credible candidate like Ron Paul to win both states.

Others have speculated that it’s better if Romney wins the first two states as there will then be a push for a conservative alternative after all the previous ones failed and Palin can fit that role. This logic may be correct but I’m worried that Republican voters may just conclude that Romney has "earned" it by working so hard in the campaign and may not be willing to reward a late entrant who has been "sitting out" and "avoiding the tough debates." I’d apply the same logic on a lesser scale to Rick Perry.

In any event, commentator K-Bob has the rest of the GOP primary/caucus schedule. Judging by the deadlines, I suspect she’ll have to pursue the write-in route in many states unless she jumps in right after Iowa is completed.