Turkmenistan is a small country with only 6 million people, but has enormous hydrocarbon reserves. Its official plan to 2020 forsees oil production rising from 8.32 mn t in 2006 to 100 mn t/yr while gas output is due to rise from 63.2 to 240 BCM/yr. The Government anticipates exports of 68 mn t/yr of oil and 180 BCM/yr of gas by 2020.

Most of the increase will come from the Turkmen sector of the Caspian, where geologists confidently expect the discovery of giant oilfields. With 23,000 BCM of gas reserves, the only constraint on production is transportation, and a long term contract has been signed with Russia which forsees the renovation and expansion of the 100 BCM/yr Central Asia-Centre gas pipeline system. There are tentative plans for new pipelines to China, Pakistan and (via Iran) Turkey.

Uzbekistan has limited reserves of oil but large reserves of gas, and output is planned to grow at a modest rate. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have a huge potential for the generation of extremely cheap hydro power.

Investment in Central Asia carries its risks, but the rewards are potentially high, and the region should acquire growing interest for Western investors.