8/29/08

Synthesis

What we are witnessing is the breakdown of the link between middle-class America and the global financial markets it has over-tapped across the last several decades. Fannie and Freddie were the support infrastructure connecting houses to capital market access. They have been caught with weak financials, swollen balance sheets and escalating default, just like the home owners they assist. The size of their retained mortgage portfolios is truly gigantic.

Oh sure, there is money to invade and occupy Iraq, there is money to bomb Iran, there is money to train crazed jihadists/mujahedin from al Kaida in Iraq and send them into Iran, there is money to bail out criminals running banks and the criminal syndicate that is the American banking system, there is money for our "friendly" settlers in Israel to build more and more settlements, but so sorry, Mr. American Joe Schmoe - there is no money for YOU.

There has been much talk among western politicians in recent days about Russia isolating itself from the international community. But unless that simply means North America and Europe, nothing could be further from the truth. While the US and British media have swung into full cold-war mode over the Georgia crisis, the rest of the world has seen it in a very different light. As Kishore Mahbubani, Singapore's former UN ambassador, observed in the Financial Times a few days ago, "most of the world is bemused by western moralising on Georgia". While the western view is that the world "should support the underdog, Georgia, against Russia ... most support Russia against the bullying west. The gap between the western narrative and the rest of the world could not be clearer."

The current standoff, in which ties between NATO and Russia have been frozen, has sparked media speculation that Russia could be ousted from the G8, but the joint statement from the United States, Canada, Japan, Britain, France, Germany and Italy avoided any hint of such a move. British Foreign Minister David Miliband stressed Wednesday that there were no such plans.

Reports have begun to circulate in Moscow that Russian oil companies are under orders from the Kremlin to prepare for a supply cut to Germany and Poland through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline. It is believed that executives from lead-producer LUKoil have been put on weekend alert. ...Such action would be seen as economic warfare but Russia has been infuriated by Nato meddling in its "backyard" and threats of punitive measures by the EU. Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday accused EU diplomats of a "sick imagination". Armed with $580bn of foreign reserves (the world's third largest), Russia appears willing to risk its reputation as a reliable actor on the international stage in order to pursue geo-strategic ambitions.

Russia on Thursday tested an inter-continental missile, heightening tensions with the West as France said the European Union could impose sanctions on Moscow over the Georgia conflict.

Furthermore, Russia has other friends besides 'The West.' (same link)

Russia claimed it had secured support from China and four other nations at a summit in Dushanbe, the Tajikistan capital. A statement released by the six nations at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit voiced support for Russia's "active role" in "assisting in peace and cooperation in the region" but also called for dialogue and respect for "territorial integrity." "The SCO member states express their deep concern over the recent tensions surrounding the South Ossetia question and call for the sides to peacefully resolve existing problems through dialogue," said the statement signed by Medvedev, President Hu Jintao of China and the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Is Turkey going to surprise the world? And continue to refuse the Americans? Is there is a pax Russia unfolding? And Ukraine for all its vitriol to Russia, transports about 90% of the Russian gas that goes to Western Europe. So there is clearly some interdependency between these 2 Black Sea neighbours. And if Georgia ends up a Russian dependency then Turkey is beholden to Russia for the BTC pipeline.

Public sentiment in Turkey for the US is still at rock bottom because of Iraq.

The President of Iran has just visited Turkey for two days against Israels objections.

It was in Turkey that the BTC pipeline was blown up, a few days before Georgia attacked, and a few days after Kazakhstan agreed to send its oil to Russia and not through the BTC pipeline. The Kurds claimed the sabotage, the Turks officially denied it was sabotage. If western agents had a hand in this might the Turks be upset? Their intelligence service knows what happened. As do the Russians, the Iranians and Israelis.

Are the Turks saying no to the Neocons?

This would P A N I C the Israelis, in fact Syria’s president visited Turkey this month, and Syria’s Interior Minister visited Turkey yesterday while Syria’s president Assad was in Moscow.

Russian newspapers say that the USA has been greatly disappointed in Mikhail Saakashvili. The Georgian president has not justified USAs hopes and his career in politics will end very soon. The Georgian president is completely incapable of acting adequately and reasonably and may thus completely ruin USA’s plans in the region.

Senator Joseph Biden became personally certain of that during his meeting with Saakashvili in Tbilisi. The fate of the Georgian leader has been determined, a source close to the US Embassy in Georgia said.

A helicopter of the US Coast Guard cutter Dallas, which is drifting near the port of Batumi, will evacuate the disgraced Georgian president to the USA [in the event of a coup].

And US ships will not be able to dock at Poti, either. (same link)

U.S. warships have scrapped a plan to deliver relief supplies to Georgia’s flashpoint port of Poti on Wednesday, a source close to the U.S. embassy in Tbilisi said. “The ships will not dock in Poti tomorrow,” the source told Reuters, referring to a planned mission by the USS McFaul and another vessel. Their presence would have been sure to enrage Russia, which has troops patrolling the port following a brief war with Georgia.

Russia is calling the shots now. Was this Georgian debacle supposed to help McCain and be a trial run for a strike on Iran?

A senior Russian military analyst said on Wednesday that the U.S. and NATO by arming Tbilisi used the conflict in Georgia as a dress rehearsal for a future military operation in Iran. Col. Gen Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Studies, told a news conference at RIA Novosti, "We are close to a serious conflict - U.S. and NATO preparations on a strategic scale are ongoing. In the operation the West conducted on Georgian soil against Russia - South Ossetians were the victims or hostages of it - we can see a rehearsal for an attack on Iran. There is a great deal of "new features" that today are being fine tuned in the theater of military operations."

He said the likelihood of a war against Iran was growing with each passing day, "As a result, the situation in the region will become destabilized," and added "causing chaos and instability" was becoming Washington's official policy line.

Ivashov said it was difficult to predict how other countries would react to a conflict with Iran, but according to him, "old Europe" would be reluctant for events to develop and to some degree would become Russia's allies.

With regard to the Georgia-South Ossetian conflict, he said that one of the principal goals of NATO's "geopolitical operation" was to neutralize Russia as a global player.

Aha. Perhaps not everybody is on board with the plan. And why should they be? You'd have to be a sick bastard to go along with unleashing WW III.

Q: Mr. Markov, just on that point about Iran, you said the United States might attack Iran. Do you think an attack on Iran would be in the next few months?

A: Yes. I think any attack against Iran would happen before the presidential elections. Washington has two goals for wanting to bomb Iran. One is to crush nuclear capacity and second to stop Barrack Obama election and allow neocons to control Washington.

To conclude, the Israelis and the US did set up Saakashvili, a man with connections to both McCain and Obama, in order to secure Georgia, probably as a launching pad for an attack on Iran. This plan has failed, allowing Russia a moment (long awaited) to turn the tables. Which they have. Now we shall see whether Russia can outmaneuver the Europeans, Israel and the US. By playing hard now, they may be able to push a few countries back from the brink. Some of the European countries might well decide it's not worth it to stick with the neocon plans and have their cities destroyed. The Europeans are a weak link in the neocon plan. I think even Israel itself may chicken out if they know the Europeans won't back the US. The one thing we can be sure about Israel: they will do anything to avoid getting stuck holding the bag. So Israel is a weak link, too, because they don't really have the courage of their convictions. They want the US to do all the killing and dying. It will come down to the stupid neocons here in the US and whether the Israelis can manipulate them into committing a monstrous murder-suicide. As this guy put it,

The Bush Administration is about as dangerous as a badger on crystal meth, and as we've repeatedly seen, they're so dumb they can screw up a soda straw.

Yeah. So it's not such a good outlook. But as of today, we're still here.

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