Kristopher Tapley has covered the film awards landscape for over a decade. He founded In Contention in 2005. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Times of London and Variety. He begs you not to take any of this too seriously.

Hoffman's a previous winner, which usually works against an Oscar nominee ... but most of the other likely nominees (Jones, Arkin, DeNiro, Bardem, Waltz, Crowe) are previous winners too. We could see an Adrien Brody situation, where it goes to the one nominee who's never won before. (Dicaprio? McConaughey?)

I'll admit I'm pretty biased when it comes to DDL. I just kind of sit there with my jaw open when I watch him do anything, and such is the case for Lincoln. He really is a guy who becomes completely lost in a role. He's not infallible however, lest we forgot "9..."