Intel chief economist Paul Thomas spoke early this morning at PCC Rock Creek on the economic outlook and international trade.

Before his talk, and way before the sun came up, I spent a few minutes chatting with Dr. Thomas and came away a little depressed. He sees the recession as being severe and deep, perhaps along the lines of the "double-dip" downturn we weathered in the early '80s.

We'll have a Q&A from our discussion in tomorrow's paper. For now, here are a few points he touched on during his PCC talk:

"This is not a news flash, but we're in a recession," Thomas said.

Though it hasn't been formally declared, Thomas expects the keepers of the R word may ultimately date the recession's start to Dec. '07, when job growth stopped.

For Intel, he said, the effects of the recession still aren't clear. The outlook's still as foggy as it when Intel issued its quarterly forecast a month ago.

There is some cause for optimism, Thomas said.

Grab a towel

For Intel, the new Atom processor -- built on technology created in Oregon -- is producing unexpectedly popular, low-priced "netbook" computers that are positioned to sell even if consumers around the world can't afford top-flight computers.

Globally, Thomas said, indicators suggest trade has bottomed out and the credit markets are recovering.

But in his view, the downturn is likely to last through next year -- and job losses may be felt into 2010.