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Opinion: Shearer vs. Cunliffe – how the numbers stack up

Cunliffe has 11 MPs in Labour who support him. He needs 13 to force a leadership vote.

Opinion by Political Reporter Patrick Gower

Camp Shearer is now claiming it is in the ascendancy in the battle for the Labour leadership.

Camp Cunliffe appears to be weakening.

At the weekend my colleague Brook Sabin and I approached every Labour MP to find out their position - and this is how the numbers stack up.

Now remember it is all about a February vote set down in Labour's constitution, where if 40 percent of the MPs - that's 14 - refuse to endorse David Shearer, then a leadership contest is triggered.

That contest would be under new rules and the entire party - grassroots members and unions - would get a say, rather than just MPs as it is now.

So the math is simple - if Cunliffe can get a total of 14 MPs (including himself of course) to refuse to endorse Shearer - he forces a leadership contest.

Shearer meanwhile needs to get 21 MPs (including himself) to see off a leadership contest.

Refusing to endorse Shearer: Camp Cunliffe potentials

David Cunliffe

Nanaia Mahuta

Charles Chauvel

Lianne Dalziel

Sua William Sio

Sue Moroney

Moana Mackey

Louisa Wall

Rajen Prasad

Parekura Horomira

Rino Tirikatene

Raymond Huo

Total: 12

Cunliffe needs 14 to get to the 40 percent mark to trigger a leadership contest. There are 12 on this list but remember while some are tight Cunliffe, others will go with the tide.

Refusing to say: Position ‘ambiguous’

Shane Jones

Ross Robertson

Total: 2

Shane Jones has not returned calls while Ross Robertson gave an ambiguous answer. Remember that Jones was suspended by Shearer over the Bill Liu affair. The votes of these two are crucial in the final result.

Camp Shearer: Standing by the leader

David Shearer

Grant Robertson

David Parker

Jacinda Ardern

Maryan Street

Clayton Cosgrove

Phil Twyford - Refuses to say - believed to be Shearer

Ruth Dyson - Refuses to say - believed to be Shearer

Trevor Mallard

Kris Faafoi

Iain Lees-Galloway

Damien O'Connor

Darien Fenton

Clare Curran

Phil Goff

Chris Hipkins

Annette King - Refuses to say - believed to be Shearer

David Clark

Andrew Little

Megan Woods

Total: 20

Shearer needs to get to 21 (over 60 percent) to see off the challenge. Most of these have openly declared and Camp Shearer is saying they actually have 23 - and that means it is over for Cunliffe.

So there you have it. That's how the numbers stack up as of now.

MPs who want to change camps on this list are welcome to contact the 3 News political office.