Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 100723
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...WHILE
A FRONT LINGERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. FARTHER S IN FL...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN...LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW RH
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN FL. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SRN FL ONCE AGAIN.
FARTHER W...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN NM AHEAD OF A
SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH. SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...WITH GUSTY BUT
SUBCRITICAL WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF.
ALONG THE WEST COAST...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH UPPER RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERTS
OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ...SLOWLY INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CA
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT IMMEDIATELY EXPECTED...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW COULD AFFECT SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE INCREASING INTO DAY 2.
...FLORIDA...
05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING E OF THE
BAHAMAS...WHILE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY. HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED
AGAIN...WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. RHS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...WITH
SEA BREEZES TEMPERING THE THREAT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 00Z AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WHICH COULD PROMOTE DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SEA BREEZES CONVERGE...MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND SRN FL.
...SRN CA...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE CNTRL/SRN CA COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NLY 850 MB FLOW. A SURFACE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...IT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO D2. FIRE CREWS SHOULD BE ADVISED OF A
TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN LEADING TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS BY
D2/MONDAY.
..HURLBUT.. 05/10/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 100812
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE EAST..UPPER TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. FARTHER S...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN FL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RHS TO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN FL.
MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD INTO
WASHINGTON...WITH UPPER RIDGING AFFECTING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL ALIGN WITH WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT IN WY/CO/UT.
ALONG THE COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
CALIFORNIA AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN
AZ...AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS NLY FLOW
RETURNS...BRINGING WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES...DROUGHT
UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A LOW
PUSHES SEWD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 850 MB FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
VEER...BECOMING MORE NLY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ...AND HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO LEAD TO
CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WARMING/DRYING OCCURS IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ALTHOUGH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...FORECASTS INDICATE THAT NLY FLOW COULD ALSO AFFECT
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. THE CRITICAL MAY BE BROADENED IN
TOMORROW/S FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THESE AREAS.
...PORTIONS OF WY/CO/UT...
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD INTO WASHINGTON THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE A 50 TO 60 KT JET OVERSPREADS THE NWRN
CONUS. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
AREA...WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
WY/CO/UT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER S/CNTRL WY...AND
THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO CRITICAL IN
TOMORROW/S FORECAST.
...FLORIDA...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SRN FL AS THE WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONVERGE.
..HURLBUT.. 05/10/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...