ANALYSIS-Israel frets on sideline as fall of Assad delayed

May 11, 2012|Reuters

Today Barak says Israel must be ready in case "as Syriadescends into chaos, advanced weapons, or part of their stock ofchemical and biological weapons could spill over into bothterrorist and criminal hands".

Syria is widely believed to possess chemical warheads whichcan be fired with Soviet-era Scud missiles. Israel fears thatHezbollah, or radical Islamists, or al Qaeda fighters, couldgrab some of them in an uncontrolled meltdown of the regime.

YEMENI-STYLE SOLUTION?

"Assad is going to last," said Syria analyst Moshe Maoz ofHebrew University. "The balance of power is in his favour. Therehave been no mass defections."

The officer corps of the army are members of Assad'sminority Alawite sect, who know they would be slaughtered ifSunni-led rebels took control of Syria, and so will fight on fortheir lives, Maoz said.

Punitive embargoes could take years to bring down Assad, hesaid. Sympathetic neighbours Iraq and Lebanon would ensure thatDamascus never faces "a fully-fledged siege" of sanctions.

In the meantime, Maoz said, Israel's best long-term strategywould be to close ranks with Sunni Arab leaders in the region,by moving finally and decisively to settle the Middle Eastconflict, with a peace treaty and a Palestinian state.

"This is the crux issue for everybody," the analyst said.Not all Israelis agree there is real linkage between theoccupation of the West Bank and Arab or Iranian hostility.

But Israel is in "a stormy sea in which the waves ofradicalism are growing in strength", said Barak, and "anyintimation of democracy, any hint of peace should be grabbedwith both hands."

A senior official said Israel had no solution for Syria upits sleeve. It is anxious to see more assertive policies byWestern and Arab capitals, including imposition of humanitariancorridors to areas of conflict from which the United Nationsestimates one million Syrians have been displaced.

Such corridors would need military protection, which Westernpowers so far firmly rule out. Syria's northern neighbour Turkeycould force a rethink, however, if it were to declare to itsNATO allies that its own security was threatened.

Still, it would be mistaken to corner Assad, the Israeliofficial said. It would be wiser to seek a way to convince hisally Russia that its investment in Syria would not be lost ifAssad could be convinced to step aside, as Yemen's Ali AbdullahSaleh did late last year under Saudi and American pressure.

Russian cooperation, said Spyer, is crucial if theWestern-Arab coalition backing Annan's plan decides Assad is notcomplying and goes back to the Security Council seeking "furthermeasures" to enforce a ceasefire and political settlement.

"It is Russian weaponry which is keeping Assad in place.Russia has invested deeply in Syria, both in terms of armsexports and broader infrastructural projects and the search foroil and gas. Of course, the importance of the naval base atTartous should also not be underestimated," he said.

But Spyer thinks Moscow and other allies of Assad"apparently believe that the regime stands a good chance ofcoming through this and now has the upper hand. So why shouldthey do their U.S. regional rivals a favour and make themselveslook weak by abandoning a client?"