Net migration figures suggest impending labour market crunch

“Today’s immigration statistics show an overall significant decline in net migration, driven by a fall in net migration from Eastern Europe.

"EU nationals play a key role in certain sectors of the economy – from the 60,000 workers in the NHS to the further 80,000 workers in social care. Our research has found that these workers are also concentrated in less well-known critical sectors such as food manufacturing, accommodation, and warehousing.

"We need a properly managed migration policy for post-Brexit Britain that meets the needs of the economy and the concerns of the public. But if skilled EU workers are leaving the UK now because their future in the UK is uncertain, we could face a labour market crunch. Moreover, a sharp fall in migration now won’t give employers the time to adapt by investing in skills or automation.

"If urgent action isn’t taken to provide certainty to EU nationals living in the UK, then we won’t be able to create the migration system we need for our post-Brexit economy to succeed – because skilled migrants will decide of their own accord to pack their bags and leave. We need to take steps now to grant deemed leave to all EU citizens in the UK and negotiate in good faith with the EU for a quick and fair deal on citizens’ rights”

The ONS migration statistics indicate that in the year ending December 2016 total long-term net migration to the UK was 248,000, compared to 332,000 in the year ending December 2015. This is driven largely by a fall in net migration of EU citizens of 51,000 (particularly A8 citizens from Eastern European accession countries).

Our recent research highlighted the important role EU nationals play in certain parts of the UK’s labour market. We found:

The impacts of Brexit on the labour market vary radically depending on the type of system introduced. If the current visa rules for non-EU workers were also applied to EU workers, then the vast majority of recent EU workers would be ineligible. This would have serious consequences for the UK labour market.

Applying the non-EU rules to EU workers would have a particularly significant impact on the hotels and restaurants sector (where 16 per cent of the entire workforce are ineligible EU nationals), the manufacturing sector (10 per cent), and the agriculture sector (9 per cent).

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