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NFL Picks

Swinger’s Free NFL Picks On Conference Championship Games

The long awaited conference championships are looming with four teams left standing. Our resident capper Swinging Johnson has his NFL picks ready to launch our bankroll into the Super Bowl.

2015 NFL Record (32-31-2 ATS)
The game between the Patriots and Chiefs didn’t go nearly as low as I would have liked, seeing as I added under 42 in my NFL picks in that throwdown in Foxboro. It looked like we would escape with a cover but the Chiefs added a meaningless touchdown and an extra point with about a minute left in the game. It was a bad beat but we’ve seen that movie more than a few times.

The second game was like kissing our sister as the Steelers, getting a touchdown head start from the NFL Odds makers, ultimately fell to the Broncos by the score of 23-16. Pittsburgh held a slim lead at the half but allowed 11 fourth quarter points which proved to be a cover killer though at least we got our money back with the push.

Let’s take a look at the AFC and NFC Conference Championships and see if we can hit the sides and the totals in our NFL Picks for Sunday.

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AFC Championship - Patriots vs Broncos
Put the Thanksgiving game right out of your mind when analyzing this AFC title tilt. The Broncos won that one in Denver against a Patriots patchwork offensive line and no Julian Edelman. The Broncos also had Brock Osweiler under center, who would be the optimum choice for the Broncos on Sunday, but the powers that be have determined that the fading legend that is Peyton Manning will command the Denver offense.

Bottom line here is that the Denver offensive line is not protecting well heading into the most important game of the season while the Patriots pass rush has been fierce throughout the season when healthy. Manning cannot throw the deep ball any longer – hell he can barely throw short – and he will wind up on his back more times than his body cares to acknowledge. And don’t look for much relief from the Broncos rushing corps because the New England linebackers are healthier than they were in their previous game in November and should bottle up that ground attack.

The Patriots won’t even try for a balanced attack. They understand their running game was extraordinarily marginalized when Dion Lewis got injured and then completely lost once LeGarrette Blount headed to the showers for the season. The passing only attack worked against the Jets in the regular season and it worked last week against the Chiefs. Sure the Denver defensive front can apply pressure but Brady’s release is faster than the pressure they will exert.

It won’t be easy for Brady to dink and dunk to Gronkowski and Edelman as the Broncos will be crowding the box which is why this game will feature plenty of punts and long field goals. That makes for a low scoring game in a venue that should be chilly, bordering on 35 degrees with the wind chill. This is a game where you bet the Patriots to win outright and not concern yourself with the spread. Lay the juice and bet the under in this one.

NFC Championship – Cardinals vs. Panthers
Short and sweet – the Panthers get lit up by high scoring offenses and guess who’s comin’ to town? Yes, this Carolina defense is very good but they have let up 26 points to the Colts, 29 to Green Bay, 38 to New Orleans, 35 to the Giants and 24 in the second half alone to the Seahawks. The Arizona Cardinals are the real deal offensively and when they bring it they can be unstoppable.

On the flipside the Panthers can score as well but the Cardinals have a very good defense in their own right. Cam Newton has been a one-man wrecking crew this season and he will get the ball into the endzone whether it be off his golden arm or running over opposing tacklers. There will be plenty of points scored but at the end of the day don’t be surprised if the Cardinals win this one outright.

The Woodman’s Corner (14-4-1 ATS)
The Woodman did something besides light the bookie on fire last week when he pushed in the Pittsburgh/Denver clash. We were both on the Steelers as seven point road hounds but the 23-16 final score gave El Hombre de Madera (that’s Woodman for those who don’t speak astonishingly bad Espanol) his first push of what has been an absolutely astonishing season.

This weekend the man from the forest decides to eschew his love of all things underdog and follow his heart which is nestled firmly between Tom Brady’s dimples. This is a selection we both believe in and though laying points on the road is not a long term recipe for success, there are exceptions to every rule.