alex speier

Strange formula: Can Red Sox keep winning without home run power?

The Red Sox have the top offense in the American League. They average 5.12 runs per game, giving them a healthy separation from the second-most prolific offense in the AL (Detroit, 4.95 runs per game). Yet when it comes to the single most efficient way to score runs -- assaulting a baseball and knocking it over a fence -- the Sox are deficient.

Tuesday's 4-1 win over the Padres was keyed by Brandon Snyder's bases-loaded, three-run double off the top of the Wall, just to the left of center. The ball was crushed, yet Fenway's unusual dimensions kept Snyder's blast in the park. That, in turn, meant that the Sox have now gone four straight games without a homer -- tied for their fifth-longest such streak since 2000.

The power drought does not appear to be an isolated incident at this just-past-the-midpoint stage of the season. In 85 games, the Sox have gone deep 86 times, with their 1.01 home runs per game ranking 11th in the American League.

They are on pace for 164 homers, just under the 165 they hit last year. It would be their fewest homers in a full (162-game) season, in fact, since the team cleared the fences just 114 times while finishing with an 80-82 record in 1993.

David Ortiz leads the team with 16 homers. Only one other Sox player -- Daniel Nava (10) -- has reached double digits in homers. Nava is on pace for 19 homers this year, meaning that barring someone going on a homer binge at some point in the second half, the team is on pace to have fewer than two 20-homer hitters for the first time since the strike-shortened 1994 (in both '93 and '94, Mo Vaughn was the only Sox with 20-plus homers).

With Ortiz serving as the lone home run threat in the lineup, teams are increasingly trying to take the bat out of his hands. With Mike Napoli struggling since early June (and not having gone deep in 21 games, the second-longest stretch without a homer in his career), opponents have elected to pitch around the Sox DH.

In his last 20 games, Ortiz has walked 15 times, with seven of those free passes coming intentionally. Five of those intentional walks have come in the last nine games.

"They know you can do some damage, they take their chances on the next guy," said Ortiz. "That's basically what they've been doing lately. I'm not out there missing or taking pitches. I go up there to hit. So, bottom line is, in the game, in today's game, they go with scouting -- let's face who isn't hot. I've been facing that for years."

Of course, Ortiz has also seen the opposite phenomenon, times where teams have faced a pick-your-poison equation with the pairing of him and a fellow middle-of-the-order masher. He's partnered with the likes of Manny Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Gonzalez over the course of his Red Sox career. And early this year, when Napoli was scorching in the season's first two months, teams could rarely afford to pitch around Ortiz.

But right now, Ortiz feels the absence of such a partnership, the challenges of continuing to be a run-producer when teams feel emboldened to pitch around him.

"We have a lot of guys hitting for good average. That's part of it. Guys getting on base," Ortiz said of the team's prolific run-scoring despite the absence of power. "[Scoring without homers] can happen, but a power hitter is always welcome. … I'm pretty sure that, by the trade deadline, we'll be going out there and trying to get another power hitter. Power is always helpful. People always need power hitters."

Yet there are counters to that argument. The Sox lead the AL in doubles (187) and are tied for the league lead in extra-base hits (296 -- though they're actually in second in extra-base hits per game). They rank second in the AL slugging (.444; the Orioles are first at .453), second in the league in average and first in OBP (.350).

And so, it's not a quick-strike offense, but there are elements that make the Sox a team that methodically pushes runs across the plate. That can mean some ugly times of games, but it also means that there is an element of reliability to the offense even in the absence of power.

"Let's face it -- the more 20-plus home run guys you have, probably the better, but I also look at the number of doubles we hit. This is a team that up and down the lineup, doubles are capable," noted Sox manager John Farrell. "The total runs scored are the most important. The only thing that, if we are limited in a way, it's a chance for multi-runs with one swing of the bat late in the game, even though we've had times we've been able to do that. Across the board, our home run totals to me are made up [for] by the extra-base capability in other ways."

Moreover, because a number of members of the lineup have performed below their career track records in terms of power, there is the possibility that some hot streaks are around the corner. Perhaps Napoli -- who averages 31 homers per 162 games in his career -- has a home run binge on the horizon. Perhaps Jarrod Saltalamacchia -- who has eight homers and 19 doubles in 65 games, after slamming 25 homers with 17 doubles last year in 121 contests -- has such a run in him. Jonny Gomes -- who hit 18 homers in 99 games last year, but has just five in 59 games this year -- likewise is a candidate to hit homers in bunches.

But even if the Sox remain where they are, their formula for offense has proven reliable to date. The Sox have scored five or more runs in 45 of their 85 games, tied with the Orioles for the most such yields this season. Given that Boston has a 40-5 record when scoring five-plus runs, that suggests that the Sox offense has put the team in position to win on a steady basis.

"If you're leading the league in runs and it's not by home runs, I think that shows we're a diverse team that can do a lot of things," said Saltalamacchia. "The word that comes to my mind is grinders. We're a team full of grinders that don't give away at-bats. There are no easy outs. It's not like you've got a team where you can go to certain spots. We make adjustments, keep fighting.

"I think it's tougher [for pitching staffs to work through lineups] with the grinding approach. A team that hits home runs, you know where their power is. You know that most of them like it down and in or up and away over the plate. A team that grinds can get hits on different pitches, that's a tougher game to call."

That, at least, has been the formula for the Sox so far. It's been working. Yet as the team explores the possibility of upgrades for the second half, looking for ways to sustain its league-best place in the standings, the idea of adding more home run power -- so long as it does not compromise the grinding approach of which Saltalamacchia spoke -- represents an obvious avenue to do so.

"We can always use a little bit of help, that second half of the season," Ortiz said of the possibility of trading for a power hitter. "No question about it."

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