There probably isn’t one reason

As a recovering determinist, I relish the celebration of uncertainty and the unknown. I’ve written quite a bit as I’ve read along. But here’s one more thought – the implications of uncertainty for silver bullets.

As much as we try to make the world bend to our will, there likely isn’t just one reason for anything. And so there probably isn’t one solution for it either.

…The biggest things are unusual by definition. Unusual things often result from an alignment or interaction of many circumstances – that’s why they turn out big. By their nature, these will be harder to understand. However, this does not mean we have failed to research them as well as reasonably possible: in a world of enigmatic influences, research rigour does not equal nailing down. The best answer might be that there is no answer.

The bigger the thing you’re trying to tackle or explain, the more influences it will likely have. Including ones you can’t see or measure. If you remove any of these jenga blocks, will your notion stand up?

This makes transplanting explanations or “solutions” from one context to another incredibly problematic. Your idea may have “fixed” the problem over there – and that’s a big if. But do you really know why? What about all the factors underlying that?

History is littered with simple solutions to complex problems and we’re all prone to creating panaceas. Modern democracies, especially, incentivise simple explanations rather than waiting, seeing and experimentation.

But the world defies being put in a box.

This is why public policies so often miss or fail entirely. Complex problems have complex causes and likely require nuanced and adaptable solutions. That it’s worked before or fits a particular world view isn’t enough.

…A favourite big thing, a silver bullet, has so many advantages: it’s easier to sell, to describe, to understand, to put into practice. But whether the thing we pick would travel, on its own, to another context is another question. Silver bullets seldom work once, never mind twice.

As I have written previously, what this requires is a little more humility, as well as institutions and a culture that can accept uncertainty and not knowing. Working with best approximations and striving to improve them.