Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Government holds lead but Malcolm Turnbull's star falls

The Turnbull government has a comfortable lead over Labor just months from the next election, but the Prime Minister's personal standing continues to tumble as his administration struggles with indecision and infighting.

The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows the Coalition's two-party-preferred lead relatively steady since the last poll a month ago, at 53 per cent to 47 per cent. But Malcolm Turnbull is falling down to earth while Bill Shorten's standing has improved marginally.

The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows the Coalition's two-party-preferred lead relatively steady since the last poll a month ago at 53 per cent to 47 per cent. But Malcolm Turnbull is falling down to earth.

Mr Shorten's approval rating has increased 3 points to 33 per cent and his disapproval rating is down 3 points to 52 per cent. Mr Turnbull leads Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister by 61 per cent to 22 per cent, down from 64-19 in last month's poll.

The Coalition's primary vote is relatively steady at a strong 45 per cent while Labor's is still low at 31 per cent. The Greens are on 14 per cent.

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The government's two-party-preferred lead is out of kilter with other polls published recently, which have the major parties level-pegging at 50 per cent apiece. Strategists on both sides say they believe 50-50 cannot be attained when Labor's primary is so low, and they estimate the actual numbers to be either 52-48 or 51-49.

Healthy position

If the 53-47 result of this poll was reflected on election day, the government would be returned with only the loss of a handful seats.

The poll finds the Coalition by far the preferred economic manager, leading Labor by 43 per cent to 25 per cent.

Those on higher incomes are more of this view. One Labor strategist said while the Turnbull government was doing terribly on the politics, the internal research said the Coalition was still performing strongly on policy fundamentals in the eyes of voters, and this explained its lead.

It also shows there is no majority of voters either for or against limiting superannuation tax concessions and negative gearing. In each case, one quarter of voters is undecided, indicating the battle for hearts and minds over tax reform is still to be decided.

The poll comes came at the end of a week marked by indecision over the timing the budget, which has become linked to whether Mr Turnbull holds a double dissolution election, and simmering enmities stirred by the release of a book by Nikki Savva on the contribution of the relationship between Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin to Mr Abbott's downfall.

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Crucial week

It comes ahead of what will be a volatile and crucial final week of Parliament before the May budget, which will be held on either May 3, if Mr Turnbull calls a double dissolution, or May 10, as is scheduled.

The government will dedicate this week in the Senate to passing reforms on Senate voting, to end microparties winning spots with a tiny primary vote.

Labor and the crossbenchers will attempt to stall the vote and thwart Mr Turnbull's plans to use a bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission as a double dissolution trigger.

With both leaders in full dress rehearsal for an election, Mr Shorten sought to focus voters on Mr Turnbull's indecision during a campaign visit in western Sydney. Labor believes Mr Turnbull's popularity, which is still relatively high, is the Coalition's greatest strength.

"Mr Turnbull has had a look at the problems of Australia and basically found it too hard. He's given up on governing. Now the biggest question he expects us to believe that Australia confronts is which Saturday should be an election," he said.

"Mr Turnbull has proven to be a massive disappointment at the six-month mark of his premiership of this nation. Australians are waking up to Mr Turnbull and waking up fast. Mr Turnbull knows this, that's why he's in such a rush to have an early election."

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The poll of 1402 voters, taken from Thursday night to Saturday night last week, shows Mr Turnbull's approval rating fell 7 percentage points in a month to 55 per cent and his disapproval rating has risen 8 percentage points to 32 per cent. Fiona Morris

Also on Sunday, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann warned that just because there has been a surge in the iron ore price, that may not translate into a new revenue upgrade in the budget, because of potential downgrades in other areas.

Senator Cormann said the price spike, which has seen ore as high as $US58 a tonne – well over the $US38 forecast in the latest budget update released in December – might be volatile. As well, there were other "drivers" and until all the numbers were gathered closer to the budget, it was too early to say if there would be a net revenue increase.

Last week, The Australian Financial Review reported that any revenue windfall would be used to offset the deficit, not spent on election bribes or tax reform.