Profile: The overwhelming majority of the seat is made up of the town of Wrexham itself, the biggest town in north Wales, situated close to the English border. Wrexham is a former heavy industrial town, once dominated by mining and brewing. In more recent times it has successfully diversified into light and high tech industry and houses the second largest industrial estate in the country to the east of town. Companies operating here include Kelloggs, JCB and Calypso drinks.

Politics: Labour has held the seat since its creation in 1935, but not always safely. In recent years its safety has owed much to the opposition support being divided between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. The Welsh Assembly seat of the same borders has a much more exotic recent history, thanks to the political travels of the former Labour MP John Marek, who held the assembly seat as an independent after being deselected, failed to hold it for his new Forward Wales party and eventually joined the Conservatives.

Current MP

IAN LUCAS (Labour) Born 1960, Gateshead. Educated at Newcastle Royal Grammar School and Oxford University. Former Solicitor. Contested North Shrophire 1997. First elected as MP for Wrexham in 2001. Government whip 2008-2009, Under-secretary for Business 2009-2010. Resigned as a PPS in 2006 as part of the abortive Brownite coup that forced Tony Blair to name a date for his departure.

My guess on the new Welsh poll is Lab will be back ahead, maybe comfortably. Welsh polls usually move broadly in line with national polls – if they did we’d expect Lab +1 or so, compared to Con +6 two weeks ago. Will be interesting to see if Plaid are collapsing, like other smaller parties.

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