Will Hillary Clinton run for the U.S. Senate in New York? The pundits assume she will, but the Iowa market isn't entirely sure. Investors who doubt her intentions are buying shares in NYDem, a stock that will pay off only if a Democrat other than Clinton wins the seat.

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Since hovering around a nickel through late September, NYDem's share price has risen to about 8 cents, while Mrs. Clinton has been stuck between 32 cents and 34 cents. In other words, for every four people who think she'll win the seat, one thinks she won't even win the Democratic nomination, even though she's unopposed. Presumably, the skeptics think she'll back out. She hasn't yet announced her candidacy, and many investors seem to doubt she ever will.