World

Russia and Ukraine agree to cease-fire deal, but will it hold?

Russian President Vladimir Putin, second left, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, right, shake hands as French President Francois Hollande, left, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel look on during a meeting in Minsk, Belarus, Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2015.

KIEV, Ukraine — It was a high-stakes, multi-act diplomatic drama played out in real time on Internet live streams and social media for more than half of a day.

And then finally, after intense wrangling, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, as well as pro-Russian separatist leaders, agreed in the Belarusian capital of Minsk on Thursday to a crucial new cease-fire to stem the deadly violence raging in eastern Ukraine.

The armistice, hashed out over the course of more than 16 painstaking hours of negotiations through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, calls for guns to go quiet in war-torn eastern Ukraine starting at midnight on Feb. 14, and for the drawback of heavy weapons, Putin told reporters after the talks.

"We managed to agree on the main thing," Putin said, adding that a “contact group” of representatives and not of the heads of state had actually signed the deal.

The deal also calls for an "all for all" exchange of prisoners and an amnesty to those involved in the conflict who have not committed serious crimes.

However, the contentious issues of autonomy for the rebels and drawing up the borderlines between Kiev-controlled territory and the rebels' self-proclaimed "peoples republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk remain unsettled, according to the Russian president.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures as he speaks to the media after the peace talks in Minsk, Belarus, Thursday, Feb. 12, 2015.

Image: AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, Pool

An original cease-fire deal was signed in Minsk last September. It also called for a withdrawal of heavy weapons, as well as autonomy in the eastern regions and a demilitarized zone. But that agreement was violated as quickly as it was signed, and the deadly violence raged on.

Over 5,300 people have been killed in the conflict since it began last April, with a dramatic spike in casualties since the start of this year. Some 263 civilians alone died between Jan. 31 and Feb. 5 as a result of the recent escalation of violence.

Russia has been accused by Kiev and the West of arming and reinforcing the pro-Russian rebels in easter Ukraine — a claim it denies.

Poroshenko clarified that heavy weaponry will be withdrawn from both sides by 31-43 miles in the next two weeks, adding that the sides had agreed also that all foreign troops would leave the country. He said the deal does not envisage autonomy to the rebel-held regions, something Moscow and the rebels demand.

Putin said only after Kiev makes constitutional reforms to give more powers to the rebels' regions would Ukraine be granted full control over the border with Russia.

Timothy Ash, senior analyst at Standard Bank in London, called that "the rub."

"This is just very unlikely to happen — it was already in Minsk," Ash wrote in a note, referring to the first Minsk meeting last September. "Russia will argue that it has to be much further decentralisation than Ukraine is likely able to deliver."

Also still unresolved is the issue of Debaltseve, a strategic transport hub and the focus of intense fighting in recent weeks some 50 miles north of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk where thousands of Ukrainian government forces are holed up. The rebels all but have them encircled, and are demanding that they retreat, turning over the destroyed town to them.

Putin said that he and Poroshenko are at odds over what to do with the key flashpoint town.

The four leaders, along with their foreign ministers and aides, agreed to the cease-fire after a tense and sleepless marathon session that produced several images showing just how painful it was to bring the group together.

While the sides did manage to come to a partial agreement, there was a moment when it looked like it might slip away.

Nooo. RT @NatVasilyevaAP: Latest from #Minsk: everyone is back in the conference room, the talks are ongoing.

However, Putin blamed Kiev's non-recognition of the leaders of the rebel "republics" for the delay in negotiations.

As for the issue of the borderline, the Russian president said that they should be worked out between Kiev and the rebels. He also urged restraint from both sides in the days leading up to the cease-fire.

"The entire world is waiting to see whether the situation moves toward de-escalation, weapons pullback, cease-fire or spins out of control," Poroshenko was quoted as saying upon arriving in Minsk.

Afterward, the Ukrainian president described the talks as "not easy."

"In fact, different unacceptable conditions, including retreat and surrender, were put forth to us. But we did not bow to any ultimatums and firmly stood by our position that a ceasefire should not have any preliminary conditions," he said.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, center, speaks by phone as he and other leaders arrive to continue talks in Minsk, Belarus, on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2015.

Image: AP Photo/Sergei Grits

While the document signed Thursday signifies a step in that direction, the real test will be to see if a semblance of peace washes over the bloodstained battlefields, where fighters on both sides told Mashable this week that they believe war — not diplomacy — is the only way for the conflict to be resolved.

"It will take years, and much more blood will be spilt before this war is over," a rebel in Donetsk called Kiril told Mashable last week.

As word of a cease-fire deal broke on Thursday, a senior Ukrainian official, quoting the late British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, described the new Minsk deal as merely "the end of the beginning."

Sr. Ukr official to me on Minsk: This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning

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