Improve the performance of both the operational GFDL model at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the operational GFDN model at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) and provide assistance to NCEP and FNMOC in transitioning the model upgrades to operations.

Enhance, further test through validation and with success implement a previously developed and experimentally tested forecast tool that provides the probability of TC genesis based on forecasts from five global numerical models (CMC, ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET).

Run tool in real-time as each model cycle arrives at NHC and objectively identify and give the normalized probabilities of genesis for all TCs that develop in the models out to 120 h and record values of relevant variables as defined by Halperin et al. (2012) and Halperin et al. (2013).

Provide timely output in both graphical and bulletin format for NHC forecasters.

Develop an operational algorithm to estimate the confidence of the intensity forecasts from NHC's primary intensity models and their consensus.

The technique builds on the results of Bhatia and Nolan who demonstrated that the errors and biases of DSHP, LGEM, and GFDL have significant systematic variability as a function of a number of storm environmental variables that are available in real time, including the magnitude of the vertical shear, the direction of the shear, the initial intensity, and the maximum potential intensity.

The intensity model error will be estimated from a linear combination of these predictors, supplemented with other variables. Versions will be developed for the Atlantic and the combined East/Central Pacific.

Applying a bias correction to the radii-CLIPER used by the MC model to improve the accuracy of the wind speed probabilities for exceptionally small or large (e.g. 2012's Hurricane Sandy) tropical cyclones. Additionally, several additions to the MC model are proposed such as estimates of the arrival and departure times of 34/50/64 kt winds, an integrated GPCE parameter, and wind speed probabilities beyond 5 days (proposed to 7 days).

Consolidate the error statistic generation code, which is currently in several pieces, into a single streamlined version that will reduce the time needed to update the MC model statistics each year.

Implement and deliver an independently operating version of ARCHER (Automated Rotational Center of Hurricane Eye Retrieval) on an NHC/NCO server, an AWIPS-2 plug-in for viewing and interpreting the output in the operational environment, and associated documentation.

Verify the technique on independent data (not using the same cases that the statistical technique is developed on) and homogeneously comparing against the errors of TAFB and SAB Dvorak position fixes when aircraft reconnaissance is available for ground truth.

Coordinate with collaborators at NHC/TAFB and the JHT facilitators to insure that the deliverables meet their standards for ease of use and optimal integration into the NHC/TAFB operational environment.