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B.C. election results forestall an Ontario election: Cohn

If a spring election is now a non-starter for Ontario’s NDP, could a snap election become the new Liberal end game?

After keeping Kathleen Wynne waiting while ratcheting up the pressure, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath couldn’t have picked a worse day — the day after the NDP’s upset loss in B.C. — to jaw-jaw with the Liberal premier, writes Martin Regg Cohn.
(Nathan Denette / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

She kept that game face in place Wednesday afternoon as she sat across the table from Premier Kathleen Wynne on, bluffing her way through a game of high-stakes budget poker.

After keeping Wynne waiting while ratcheting up the pressure, Horwath couldn’t have picked a worse day — the day after the NDP’s upset loss in B.C. — to jaw-jaw with the Liberal premier.

Outside B.C., few New Democrats had as much riding on that province’s election results as Horwath. Now, Ontario’s NDP leader retains leverage, but not momentum.

She is making the best of a hand that is looking weaker by the day. Quite apart from the B.C. shock, the latest polls in this province show the Ontario NDP slipping to dead last.

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Wielding the balance of power, New Democrats could still trigger an election if they refused to let the budget pass a scheduled confidence vote in the minority legislature later this month. To which Wynne might now say:

“Make my day — on voting day.”

Horwath doesn’t have that death wish. She knows the Orange Crush that supposedly swept the country has lost its fizz and force for now.

It would be foolish to risk the progressive reforms contained in the latest spring budget, many of them suggested by Horwath herself. Emerging from her meeting with Wynne, the NDP leader signalled that they still have common ground — and seemed to be preparing the ground for a budget deal.

So, if a spring election is now a non-starter for New Democrats, could a snap election become the new Liberal end game? Can Wynne apply the lessons of the Liberal victory in B.C. to provoke an election here over the budget — and rout the opposition with similar force?

Not so fast . . . .

First lesson:

Campaigns count, polls don’t. As Tory Leader Tim Hudak learned in the 2011 vote, opposition parties can coast into the lead between elections, when people are grumbling about government screw-ups or unpopular measures (like the HST). But an election is rarely just a referendum on the government alone — it’s an opportunity, even an obligation to size up the opposition.

Second lesson:

People like to park their votes, especially with New Democrats who pitch themselves as the people’s conscience. But when it comes time to put them in power, people can have second thoughts. In Ontario and B.C., voters have experimented with New Democrats but (rightly or wrongly) seem easily spooked by memories of what came to pass.

Third lesson:

Don’t assume people will vote for change for change’s sake. Voters get frustrated with an incumbent government after years of bungling, blunders and boondoggles. That doesn’t mean they will reflexively throw the bums out, as Hudak learned last time.

Fourth lesson:

Being premier means having to say you’re sorry. Regrets, you may have had a few, but it’s best to apologize sincerely, early and often. It helps turn the page. B.C. Premier Christy Clark apologized profusely for recent scandals plaguing her Liberal government. Now Wynne has borrowed a page from her by saying sorry for the costly cancellation of two gas-fired power plants in Oakville and Mississauga. Contrition is cathartic.

Fifth lesson:

Campaign organizations and readiness matter hugely. Televised debates are good for our democratic soul, but don’t underestimate advertising, candidates and touring. Negative ads played a big role in B.C. A talented campaign team also helped (Clark relied on two veteran Ontario Liberals, Don Guy and Laura Miller). Ontario’s Tories have been preparing for months, and can boast a full slate of nominated candidates. Like the NDP, the Liberals here are lagging on candidate recruitment. Preoccupied by their own recent leadership race, Wynne’s team won’t be ready for a while yet.

The biggest lesson from B.C. is the simplest one: For a party that has been in power for more than a decade, re-election requires renewal. Regret won’t cut it.

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