George Soros says he’s a euro believer, looks to invest in Europe banks

Billionaire investor George Soros, the man made famous for breaking the Bank of England by shorting the pound in 1992, reportedly told a German newspaper over the weekend that he’s a euro believer. The full article at Der Spiegel isn’t available without a subscription, so we turned to Reuters for a translation and breakdown.

“I believe in the euro. Therefore my investment team is looking forward to making [sic] a lot of money soon in Europe by, for example, pumping money in banks which urgently need capital,” Soros reportedly said in the interview, adding that the euro zone needs this type of private investment now.

He said his management team was even looking at Greece, given improving economic conditions, but before doing that they need to be assured that money can be earned on a sustainable basis.

Soros also reiterated his view that efforts by Germany to save the single currency have only made things worse. A sustainable recovery for the region still doesn’t exist, even if markets are far from the turmoil of a couple of years ago. “I fear that the euro zone could experience a long phase of economic stagnation similar to Japan’s in the past 25 years.”

In an early January piece for Project Syndicate, Soros was also critical of Germany’s handling. Of the euro, he said it has a “fatal flaw. Creating a common central bank without a common treasury means that government debts are denominated in a currency that no single member country controls, making them subject to the risk of default.”

In October, Soros said German elections marked an end to the euro crisis, but that the EU still might not survive.

As for whether or not Soros meant much of anything by his euro believing statement, analysts opined just a little. John Hardy, head of FX Strategy at Saxo Bank, says Soros is probably making a broad statement of belief that “Europeans will prove ‘all in’ on the euro single currency eventually and that the ECB will provide the necessary liquidity to avoid any significant strain on the banking sector.

“I suppose he sees opportunities, therefore, in being long European banks and European assets generally that would do the best on this development. His comments about ‘stagflation’ were aimed at the risks from Germany’s austerity approach,” says Hardy.

However, when it comes to the euro-believer stuff, Hardy cautions not to take him at his word. Reading “between the lines — his believing in the euro I wouldn’t take as meaning believing that the euro will strengthen and if things go the way Soros is suggesting, it would probably actually weaken considerably (as the ECB would need to effectively print money to bring about the conditions that would prompt Soros to invest in Europe).”

Yves Lamoureux, president of Lamoureux & Co., a market advisory firm based on behavioral economics, says Soros has long been one who hasn’t seemed to have much faith in the euro, but now he does, and may be talking his books some.

As for European banks, he said more de-leveraging and further stock dilutions will take place as banks seek to raise further capital by stock issuances. “Our answer is clear. Stay away as the bad news will surface again and the yield spread of rising rates in the U.S. and lower rates in Europe will put banks and insurance companies in trouble, even perhaps threatening their survival in some cases,” said Lamoureux.

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