Hard to believe, but NBA free agency is just one week old today. Already, there have been convulsions and upheavals all over the league, but probably no place more than in the Western Conference, which was tough last year—five teams won 56 games—but will be even tougher this time around. Here’s how things shake out after a couple of moves reshaped the league:

Going up

Houston

Changes: The Rockets won the Dwight Howard sweepstakes and are now investigating ways—most important, a trade of Omer Asik—of revamping their roster around him.

Outlook: Exactly how high the Rockets can climb in the West depends on what they do with the rest of the team and how Howard responds to his new locale. Coach Kevin McHale intends to mold Howard into a better interior post player, and the Rockets have the perimeter shooters to create room for him. No matter how that development goes, with a core of James Harden on the perimeter and Howard inside, the Rockets have a shot at being the conference’s best team.

Golden State

Changes: The Warriors made a big score, landing what could be considered the third-best player in the free-agent class, small forward Andre Iguodala. To get him, though, the Warriors lost key bench contributors Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry.

Outlook: The hope is that the Warriors can find a cheap replacement for Jack, and that Andre Iguodala’s ability to handle the ball and play point-forward will lessen the need for a backup of Jack’s quality. The addition of Iguodala means Harrison Barnes will likely come off the bench, giving coach Mark Jackson the option of using small lineups with Barnes as the power forward. That will mitigate the loss of Landry, though another big man figures to be added. (UPDATE: Golden State reportedly has agreed to a multiyear contract with free-agent big man Marreese Speights.) If the Warriors can stay healthy—a big if when you have Andrew Bogut in the middle—they should be a Top 4 team in the West.

LA Clippers

Changes: The Clippers re-signed Chris Paul and kept Matt Barnes, also adding wings J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley, giving a big boost to their perimeter shooting. They lost Eric Bledsoe, but point guard Darren Collison gives the Clippers a reliable backup for Paul. Remember, Collison played his best basketball while under Paul's tutelage in New Orleans. The biggest change, though, is at the bottom of the roster, where Doc Rivers takes over as head coach.

Outlook: With Rivers at the helm and an improved rotation, the Clippers are gunning for the top spot in the West. Whether their leap can go that far could depend on Rivers’ ability to reach DeAndre Jordan, who was considered trade fodder as Rivers was moving from the Celtics to the Clippers. But with Redick and Dudley on the perimeter, Paul is primed for an MVP-type year.

Holding steady

San Antonio

Changes: After some speculation about splashy moves, the Spurs have pretty much stood pat, re-signing Tiago Splitter and Manu Ginobili while adding reserve Marco Belinelli.

Outlook: Though they might slide a bit in the regular season, as coach Gregg Popovich gives priority to resting his veterans, there’s little reason to think the Spurs can’t make a return trip to the Finals, even if they finish fourth or fifth in the conference. As long as Tim Duncan holds up well, Tony Parker is his usual self and Manu Ginobili bounces back from a subpar postseason, the Spurs will be fine. Keep an eye on Kawhi Leonard, who figures to make a huge third-year leap.

Memphis

Changes: The Grizzlies’ big change thus far has been dumping head coach Lionel Hollins and promoting assistant Dave Joerger. It’s likely that Joerger will run the same offense and defense that Hollins had in place, but Hollins was popular among his players.

Outlook: The Grizzlies advanced to the conference finals last year, where they were swept by the Spurs. They’ve probably been passed in the conference by the likes of Golden State and Houston, so look for a sixth-place finish in the West here.

Slipping

Oklahoma City

Changes: So long, Kevin Martin. The Thunder lost Martin early in free agency, then failed to lure Dorrell Wright in free agency. It looks like they will have to hope that one remaining vestige from the James Harden era—Jeremy Lamb—is ready to play.

Outlook: The Thunder still have Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, and as long as you’ve got that, you’re going to contend in the West. There will be a step backward, no doubt, but the Thunder should still land in the mix of the West’s Top 5.

LA Lakers

Changes: Dwight Howard is gone, and that’s about all there is to know.

Outlook: With Howard gone and Kobe Bryant coming off of an Achilles tendon injury, the Lakers will get off to a middling start at best, and from there, scramble to try to earn a playoff spot. Which is exactly how last year went.

Denver

Changes: They lost Iguodala, traded away center Kosta Koufos, entirely altered their front office and got rid of coach George Karl, replacing him with first-timer Brian Shaw. That’s a lot of upheaval.

Outlook: Shaw is an unknown as head coach, and he will be dealing with a team in flux. The Nuggets won 57 games last year, and were 38-3 at home. That won’t happen again, though Denver still will have a crack at a No. 6 or 7 seed in the conference.

Wildcards

Minnesota

Changes: The T-Wolves kept Chase Budinger and added shooting guard Kevin Martin, also bringing in rookie Shabazz Muhammad. They will, though, lose Andrei Kirilenko and have to figure out what happens with restricted free agent center Nikola Pekovic. The biggest difference, though, could be a healthy Kevin Love.

Outlook: The loss of Kirilenko will be a blow to the team’s defense, but Martin’s shooting gives the Wolves a weapon at the off-guard spot that they’ve long been lacking. They have not made the playoffs since 2004, but this could be the year that changes.

Portland

Changes: The Blazers were threatening for a playoff spot last year, but fell apart down the stretch because they lacked depth, with arguably the worst bench in the league. That has changed with the addition of Dorrell Wright and Earl Watson, and bringing in Robin Lopez to start at center will boost the team’s defense.

Outlook: Portland’s brass felt all that was keeping the team from a playoff spot was interior defense and depth. They’ve addressed both, and as long as LaMarcus Aldridge—rumored to be seeking a trade—is pacified, the Blazers will be contenders for the No. 8 seed.

New Orleans

Changes: The Pelicans added guard Tyreke Evans, selling him on a Manu Ginobili-style role in a new-look backcourt that has Jrue Holiday at the point. Banking on Anthony Davis to improve and the addition of a center to replace Robin Lopez, the Pelicans will be an improved outfit.

Outlook: It’s probably too much to ask New Orleans to leap all the way into the postseason picture. There are a lot of variables that need to work out just right—Gordon must stay healthy, Evans must embrace his role, Holiday must continue to get better as a playmaker. But the Pelicans have, at least, an outside shot at the playoffs.