000
FXUS63 KLSX 021929
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
229 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
SPECIFICS FOR KUIN, KCOU: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN
TURN NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS (17-21Z AT KCOU AND 10-14Z AT
KUIN). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTN AT KCOU INVOF THE
COLD FRONT.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AFTER 03/06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS BETWEEN 17-21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES
ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT.
KANOFSKY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 77 90 74 87 / 20 20 40 30
QUINCY 68 84 65 82 / 20 10 30 30
COLUMBIA 69 89 70 86 / 10 20 20 40
JEFFERSON CITY 71 91 71 87 / 10 20 20 30
SALEM 71 88 67 85 / 20 20 20 30
FARMINGTON 72 91 72 88 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX