Overview of likely climate change impacts in New Zealand

This page provides an overview of likely climate change impacts in New Zealand. It links to information that local government can use to prepare its response to climate change.

What changes can we expect to our climate?

In New Zealand, changes in climate – such as temperature and rainfall – are already occurring. These changes will occur to differing extents in different parts of New Zealand throughout this century and beyond.

Based on the latest climate projections for New Zealand, by the end of this century we are likely to experience:

higher temperatures – greater increases in the North Island than the South, with the greatest warming in the northeast (although the amount of warming in New Zealand is likely to be lower than the global average)

rising sea levels

more frequent extreme weather events – such as droughts (especially in the east of New Zealand) and floods

a change in rainfall patterns – with increased summer rainfall in the north and east of the North Island and increased winter rainfall in many parts of the South Island.

Annual average temperature changes by 2090

Under a low emissions scenario (left) and a high emissions scenario (right) compared to the 1995 baseline

Annual average rainfall changes by 2090

Under a low emissions scenario (left) and a high emissions scenario (right) compared to the 1995 baseline

Impacts of climate change

Issue

Likely impacts

Higher temperatures

There is likely to be an increase in demand for air-conditioning systems and therefore electricity in summer.

People are likely to enjoy the benefits of warmer winters with fewer frosts, but hotter summers will bring increased risks of heat stress and subtropical diseases.

There may be a reduction in demand for winter heating meaning lower costs and reduced stress on those who cannot afford electricity.

Flooding

More frequent intense winter rainfalls are expected to increase the likelihood of rivers flooding and flash flooding when urban drainage systems become overwhelmed.