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Market Views

12/5/16

Technical View:

The S&P retreated to the 13-EMA this week after three consecutive weeks of gains to record highs. We continue to trade in a large channel off the Brexit lows which measures up to 2,280 and long-term targets up above of 2,400 from the July breakout. The 20-EMA below is support at 2,180 and then the 50-EMA at 2,165 while both supportive of the August to October range. Cloud support is at 2,150 and a big volume area from September. Price action remains constructive and not seeing anything bearish yet on the overall indices, the trend remaining higher. RSI is pulling back under the 60 level after getting extended the last three weeks and MACD curling lower.

Sentiment/Internals:

The AAII Sentiment Survey for the week ending 11/30 showed a 6.1% drop in bullish sentiment to 43.8%, a 3.1% rise in neutral sentiment to 31.1%, and a 3% rise in bearish sentiment to 25.5%. Bullish sentiment remains above the long-term average of 38.5%. The NAAIM Exposure Index rose again to 98.02 and nearing the August highs. Equity fund flows for the week showed a smaller $961M outflow from equities and a $3B outflow from taxable bonds. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day MA fell marginally to 60% while the percentage above their 200-MA fell to 61.2%. As of Friday’s close there were 94 new highs versus 74 new lows on the NYSE while the Nasdaq was 109/54. The CBOE Equity P/C ratio closed at 0.67 and Index P/C ratio closed at 1.00. The NYSE Cumulative A/D fell modestly off of recent highs. Summation rose for the third straight week to 109.96. The VIX:VXV ratio closed at 0.84.

Daily Freebies

September 20th, 2016

Mellanox Tech (MLNX) a name struggling since March but a trader opens 500 March 2017 $48/$34 bull risk reversals at $0.30 debit, and a name that has seen some unusual call buys and could make a nice M&A target. The $2B company trades 10X Earnings, 2.6X Sales and 17.7X FCF with strong growth and impressive margins.

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