Copenhagen cartoons a-go-go

Day 11 (Dec 17) update

A deal appears to be in sight for the final day of the UN climate change talks but there are fears it may not prevent a 3C (5.4F) temperature rise.

Denmark’s prime minister spoke of “very fruitful” talks as Copenhagen prepared to receive US President Barack Obama and 118 other world leaders.

Both the US and China, the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, have indicated they may make concessions.

It is hoped these may help overcome sharp divisions at the two-week talks.

China signalled concessions on the monitoring of emission curbs while the US said it would commit money for developing countries.

Denmark’s Lars Lokke Rasmussen called late-night talks with a group of 26 influential world leaders on how to unblock negotiations.

“We discussed how we can make progress and we had a very fruitful, constructive dialogue… for almost two hours,” he told reporters.

After the leaders left, their aides continued working on a political agreement for them to inspect later.

Which reminds modest-ol’-us of something we wrote in June or so 2008:

But there is almost certainly going to be a Deal. Even with a new American President, a new UK government (mebbe) and a new EU president, a deal Will Be Made. There’ll be too many eyes on the game for anyone to want to be labelled as the wrecker. But in those circumstances the deal will probably be weak. LCD won’t just stand for lowest common denominator, it’ll also stand for Lousy Climate Deal.
No matter what, it will become harder to push the kind of radical emissions reductions-sink protections on climate change because the deal will be the only show in town with anything approaching democratic legitimacy. The world’s denialists, coal lobbies, knuckle-draggers, knuckle-heads, volcano-nutters and China-baiters will all be trying to stop their own countries’ legislatures signing it. Greens will be wanting to criticise the deal as too weak but still wanting it to be ratified. That’s where the NGO energy will go, because it offers the best chance of lobbying ministers and appearing important to NGOs core constituency (guilt-ridden, ignorant, middle-class-people). Kyoto the Sequel, anyone?

Take us to your “leaders”. These are your leaders?! You guys are toast.
The circus continues/persists/staggers on like a zombie with Parkinson’s. Yesterday was taken up with the usual haggling, Hilary promising a putatitve £100bn with all the usual strings about transparency attched, the Chinese saying they might allow some external verfication if it didn’t interfer with their sovereignty (huh). The rich gave up on trying to kill off Kyoto, with Nicholas Sarkozy going “zut alors, you can keep it, but we want ze big political umbrella ageeement aussi.” Which is fair enough. The Danes having so much egg on their face for logistical ineptitude and dodgy dealing that they could make an omelette. If they were competent, which it doesn’t appear they are. So whatever the “relevant players” (Brazil, China, India and the US and the EU) ate with the Danish royal family in yet-another-schmoozy-dinner last night, it was presumably a takeaway ordered in from the local kebab shop. This dinner may or may not result in the EU committing to higher than 20% cuts by 2020 (they said they’d go to 30% if comparable pledges were made by other rich outfits.) As the oft-quoted Jørgen Knud Hennigsen says “These targets are fake. Because the EU targets are not a reduction of 20%, but rather a stabilisation from now to 2020. It was possible to sell the 20% as though it were the 20%, but it is really not as it seems, partly because of the deindustrialisation of Eastern Europe and the recent recession.Then you have all those CDM projects that come on top which really artificially alter the exact figures of emission reductions. These targets are not terribly transparent. Very few people are able to explain how the Americans, Japanese and Australian targets compare. To some extent they aren’t really comparable.”

Mexican Stand-Off
Al Gore, in his “who are you?” speech sez: “I believe that we are capable of resolving the remaining issues to the point where we can meet in Mexico City this July, in the aftermath of a successful action by the United States Senate in April, and conclude a binding international treaty that begins the process and builds our confidence and leads us to make bolder commitments and cuts in global warming pollution and provides the supports that are necessary until, like the Montreal Protocol process, we get to the point where we actually solve this crisis.”
Wouldn’t it be pretty to think so?
Jørgen Knud Henningsen , former EU negotiator on Kyoto says, “For the time being, we are told that the US was not able to do its homework, because they have not approved any climate bill and do not know what is going to be the future US legislation. But we are a bit misled here, because even when the US decides on its legislation in four, five months, there is still a problem. If the US were to decide on the new legislation – carbon trade, targets for 2020 or 2050 – even should this be done with probably 60 votes in the Senate, I cannot see how it is possible to turn that into a full-fledged international agreement, gathering 67 senators’ votes in favor of such an agreement for ratification. I cannot see how this is achievable”

Reasons NOT to be “cheerful”
A ‘leaked’ scientific briefing indicates the best deal likely will not keep the temperature rise below 2C. Even if countries implement their biggest pledges, a rise of 3C is on the cards.

Protest News
Well, that was all worth it then. A Climate Justice Action spokesperson ‘confirmed that six activists had been able to get into the grounds of the Bella centre, after the main body of the demonstration had moved off. It is believed that they went across the small moat to the north of the centre, and got as far as the car park, where they shouted “Our world is not for sale” before being arrested.’

Grea,uh- Avera, uh Crap Danes
“No planning organization in the world accredits 45,000 people for a venue that can only hold 15,000 and then puts the accredidation line outside [while it’s snowing].” Climate Progress http://www.climateprogress.org

Quotable Quotes
“If the climate was a bank the rich governments would have saved it.” Hugo Chavez
“No deal is better than to have a bad deal, particularly for Africa…. To get to a bad deal with our heads of state here is quite difficult for anybody to accept here.”
Algerian envoy Kamel Djemouai, who speaks for 53 African nations.