Deshaun Watson

The value of the QB in fantasy football is declining. Highly sought-after players like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady have name recognition but players like Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins are putting up similar numbers while going for a third of the price. Rodgers, everyone’s dream QB, is expected to put up about one more point per game than Wentz this season and that added production is definitely not worth $20 extra dollars that could instead be used to help you nab a top tier WR or RB.1 And yet, despite that level of performance parity, some people are still dropping serious cash on the quote-unquote top tier QBs. A quick look at last year’s PPGAR reveals the value of “top” QBs compared to other positions, and guess what? It’s not good, you guys. Russell Wilson was the season’s highest ranked QB and he wasn’t even a top ten player by PPGAR.

Even though you’re not going to waste draft capital on a QB, there are still fantasy players who haven’t yet discovered The Read Option2 and some of them are bound to overspend on a QB. But which QB, you ask? We’ve got you covered. These are the five most overvalued QBs heading into the season.

Tom Brady

Seriously? He’s the second most expensive QB right now and he’s going to be 41 when the season starts. I understand that he’s an ageless wonder but even TB12 can’t overcome the wear and tear of nineteen NFL seasons. Fun fact: the Golden Boy’s played so many playoff games that it’s as if he’s played 21 total seasons. That is incredible and terrifying and exhausting and detrimental. No quarterback is worth $25 at the draft, especially not an aging one. Even if he is the GOAT.

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers might be the best quarterback in the NFL and dammit if he’s not everyone’s favorite State Farm spokesperson,3 but he missed the vast majority of last year after breaking his collarbone for the second time. I’m no doctor but that sounds like two times too many. Rodgers is ready to get back under center, but taking a risk on an aging veteran like Rodgers isn’t worth the price you’ll pay if he finds himself on the IR again this year.

Deshaun Watson

When he was on the field, Watson absolutely killed it last year. But he only played in seven games and, right now, he’s the fourth highest drafted QB in fantasy.4 His knee injury looks to be healing up nicely, but with no significant playing time under his belt, he remains at risk of both injury and regression. Drafting him for more than $2 or an eighth round pick is a gamble.

Patrick Mahomes II

Do I even have to put him on this list?5 Of course he’s going to be overrated. I’m not saying he won’t be good next year, it’s just that he definitely will not be good next year. I know it’s still early but he barely set foot on the field last year and somehow he’s going for $2 which ranks him above established names like Matt Stafford, Alex Smith, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Please, everyone, just stop it.

Baker Mayfield

Despite becoming a Brown, the first overall pick may actually have landed in a great situation. He’s got an arsenal of pass catchers that can do amazing things with the ball. He’s inheriting a team that is the embodiment of a dumpster fire, so if he can manage to win even three games he’ll be sanctified. And he’s joining what should be a pass-heavy offense.6 The only problem? Hue Jackson. It’s hard to get behind any Cleveland player with such an atrocious coach at the helm. Mayfield may very well end up being great but that’ll have to wait until Hue Jackson and his 1-31 record with the Browns are long gone.

With one week left in the fantasy regular season you might be sitting pretty as the #1 seed or maybe you’re clawing your way back into the playoff picture with a do or die game or, at the very least, you’re poised to play the role of spoiler because, while you’re out of it, a win this week would ruin Derek’s season. And seriously: fuck you, Derek.

Regardless of your predicament, the season has flashed before our eyes and the playoff push is upon us. 2017 has been really weird and, with the end of the fantasy season in sight, rosters are decimated, some teams are in tank mode and somehow Case Keenum has become a fantasy football savior. Here are some factors that could be vital for your playoff run:

Josh Gordon

The fantasy messiah. The reckoning. The perpetually suspended wideout. Josh Gordon will finally be activated this week against the Chargers. The former fantasy football god is returning to earth just in time for the playoffs. If you forgot, he’s still on the Browns but he’s only 26 and should have a lot left in the tank. If you were sneaky and followed his timeline all season, you added him to your roster for absolutely nothing. Now you get to insert him into your lineup and see his wizardry once again. Is it unfair to think that he’ll accumulate 1,000 yards in the remaining 5 games? He might not but he should because DeShone Kizer should throw him the ball on every down. Gordon’s impact should be enough for the Browns to get at least one win but, more importantly, he could be your secret weapon down the stretch. Have confidence playing him and then declare yourself a genius after you hoist the championship trophy in your fantasy league.

Go with your Gut or Take Risks?

If you’re a mere mortal and don’t have Josh Gordon on your roster, there are a few things you can do. In one corner, you can stay the course and go with what has gotten you to the playoffs in the first place. Whether it’s a solid RB1/RB2 duo or a trio of outstanding wideouts, you can keep chugging along with the roster that’s earned you a playoff spot. In the other corner, you could take some risks. Playing the hot hand over an established starter can be the difference between a playoff win or an end to your season. Taking huge risks with lineup shifts could be lead to success or devastation. Remember, money is now on the line and over-thinking your lineup could backfire. Look at your individual players and analyze the best matchups that they’re encountering. If you’ve got offensive weapons facing the Browns, 49ers or Colts, play them! Conversely, stingier defenses will make you debate whether or not you should start players lined up against them. Wavering on these decisions will lead to a lot of stress and anxiety. Ultimately, you know your team the best. It’ll be up to you to determine whether or not you want to take risks. Field what you think is your best lineup and roll with them.

Before I get into how Deshaun Watson’s injury completely fucked your season, let’s talk about how unfortunate it is that one of football’s top young players is lost for the season. He joins the ranks of Aaron Rodgers, Odell Beckham Jr., J.J. Watt and a whole host of other stars on the long-term injury list. Watson has been lighting it up since he took to the field in the second half of Week 1. He’s putting up ungodly numbers and helped to create the season’s best game in last week’s matchup against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks when he threw for over 400 yards, rushing for 67 more and scoring four times.

This week’s PPGAR rankings is just a list of everyone in the Houston Texans offense. Well, not quite. But after that game in Seattle it seems possible, right? In all seriousness, Houston’s offense is nastttyyyy which makes the fact that they started the season with Tom Savage at the helm and a gameplan built rely exclusively on their defense to get them into a playoff spot all the more absurd. Props to Deshaun Watson and Co. for such a prolific half-season.

Sadly, Deshaun and gun-slinging Texans will be holstered for the remainder of the season with Tom Savage once again in command of the offense, now that Deshaun is now tragically done for the year after he tore his ACL in practice.1

Meanwhile, as Kareem Hunt continues his downward trajectory one guy who has maintained his strong play is Melvin Gordon. He’s flown under the radar this year with the rookie class of RBs playing so well, but his consistent performance in 2017 is a testament to the growth he’s shown since his rookie year. It also goes to show that sometimes buying low2 can really pay off in fantasy football.

It’ll takes years of player development and performance before we can accurately judge the 2017 NFL Draft but what good has patience ever done anyone? You’ve got a fantasy draft coming up in a few months! Let’s take a look at some of the big rookie names that’ll be in play come August.

Quarterbacks

Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears

As you’ve no doubt heard, the 2017 NFL Draft was not a strong one for quarterbacks. Apparently, that little tidbit didn’t make its way to the Chicago Bears who went full Leeroy Jenkins and barreled headfirst into an insane trade for the 2nd overall pick in order to snag Mitchell Trubisky. It’s entirely possible that, before he’s even snapped the ball once, Trubisky is already more hated in Chicago than Jay Cutler ever was. Read that sentence again. It doesn’t seem possible and yet, after signing Mike Glennon to a preposterously lucrative free agent contract, the Bears went all in on Trubisky and, well, here we are. This is what self-combustion looks like in the NFL. There is no fantasy value here. Trubisky likely won’t start until mid-season and has no one to throw the ball to. Apologies to the Kevin White truthers out there.