Vote2018: rolling results live blog

Welcome to our live blog for the local election results. Kevin Johnson is back in the chair.

Our attention turns from Walsall and Dudley back to Birmingham and Solihull where their council election counts take place this morning.

Birmingham city council will see 101 councillors elected for new seats after a boundary review. These councillors will serve for four years together – gone will be the election of one third of the council in three of a four year cycle.

We’ll update with results and commentary at the top of this page, but you still refer to last night’s events by scrolling down the page. Keep refreshing for the latest.

Phew! After about 11 hours of live blogging, we are done.

In headline terms, nothing has changed (to quote the PM from about 12 months ago).

But it has.

Labour is in control of a city council with a completely new set of seats. It has almost two-thirds of the places on the council chamber benches and can govern reasonably comfortably for four years.

Earlier in the day, Labour figures were worried. In the end, the result came in at the bottom end – possibly a bit lower – than original predictions. There were a few too many close scrapes for comfort.

The challenges of administration will return – financial, cultural, managerial and operational.

Ian Ward is probably safe from an internal challenge. But as elsewhere in the country, it has not provided a platform on which Labour can reasonably claim it is on a march towards power at Westminster.

Theresa May will be feeling better about #LocalElections2018 than Jeremy Corbyn. But politics in the nation remains divided – right down the middle.

A Green councillor has been returned to Birmingham, with an additional seat also picked up in neighbouring Solihull.

Labour didn’t lose Cabinet names, but will need to line up a new Lord Mayor-elect after losing out in Castle Vale.

Randal Brew will be a big loss to the Conservative group. Will the result be enough to sustain Alden jnr in leading the group into the next four years?

Andy Street has called the results in Birmingham “respectable”, whilst he can look forward to seeing the balance of leaders on the WMCA Board tip slightly toward the Tories.

Mr Street keeps his reputation as an electoral asset with his brand of “urban conservatism”. He’s paid back some favours from his election journey last year.

Jon Hunt has claimed it was an OK day for the Lib Dems in Birmingham. That’s as far as it can be described, but the party has made some modest gains elsewhere.

Cllr Alden is “upbeat” in an interview with Neil Elkes on Birmingham Live

John Clancy is back – as one of two councillors returned by the Quinton ward.

Fellow Labour candidate Kate Booth won a few more votes in the two seat ward, whilst Conservative candidate Georgina Chandler came within 100 votes of defeating the former council leader.

The BBC reports that Mayor Andy Street – who won his election exactly one year ago – says the Conservatives are making “great progress” in Walsall and Dudley and “we stretched our majority in Solihull, and the results in Birmingham are very respectable”.

Two seats for the Tories in Kingstanding.

Neil Elkes makes it 67 seats for LAB with 3 to go, which is more like the result Labour councillors were originally anticipating.

I think it’s this: Lab 67 , Cons 25, LD 8 and Green 1. Three to declare officially, but I think we know which way they’re going. #BrumVotes18

We suggest Labour needs 60 plus seats for Ian Ward to feel safe from a challenge within his group. Now looks like they will get there.

We’re getting to the business end now and I’m hearing it’s likely to be status quo – Labour around 64, Con around 29, Lib Dem 8, Green 1. And yet there has been churn in percentage and some key people. #BrumVotes18#localelection2018

Unlike his wife, Sir Albert Bore is sent back to serve his constituents in the Council Chamber.

Two Labour seats in Weoley and Selly Oak.

Cabinet member Tristan Chatfield is returned.

Dan Jarvis wins in Sheffield.

Kemi Badenoch, for the Conservatives on the BBC, is clearly no fan of devolution. Why would anyone want to be Mayor rather than a career at Westminster, she wonders? We must introduce her to Andy Street.

Expectations management going at full throttle

Interesting how the predictions rumour mill is downgrading the Labour majority by the minute. The range is now 53-60 out of 101 – how long before we reach NOC. #BrumVotes18

They say campaigning can be ‘back-breaking’ work – well for @Ken__newhall going door to door delivering leaflets ended up with a fall and a broken elbow and arm! It wasn’t Amey at fault with a pothole though but a change in drive levels …! 🤕 #BrumVotes18pic.twitter.com/R3DYTbYo81

John Cotton is returned. Will there be a place in a reshuffled Cabinet? Or will he challenge for the leadership? If (note the underline) the party does only manage 54 seats, there will surely be questions to be asked in the group…

Some @WMLabour sources telling me they’re hearing their majority in #Birmingham could be as low as 54 (out of 101) – which would be a huge change. But it’s very hard to predict – dual wards now starting to declare so their numbers could start shooting up #LocalElection2018

Two seats for Labour in Bournbrook and Selly Park, in the first of the multiple seat ward results.

That means Deputy Leader Brigid Jones is returned.

Projected national share of the vote, according to the guru himself Sir John Curtice, is 35% apiece for Conservatives and Labour.

A ‘mixed picture’, a ‘status quo’ election etc. but it’s clearly more complicated than that. Difficult to argue that Labour should have done better at this point in the Parliament, especially given the political environment, if it wants to challenge for a majority Government.

Labour wins in Kings Norton North and Gravelly Hill.

It looks like Labour’s Des Hughes – brother of Tory MP Eddie – has lost in Kingstanding. The Walsall North MP has mixed emotions.

Our friends on Birmingham Live have totted up and reckon its LAB 17 CON 9 LD 3 GRN 1. Only 71 to go…..

CON pick up Sutton Mere Green.

Some thoughts from @stanchers on why Labour is not doing as well as it anticipated, whilst Neil Elkes adds a good point.

3 reasons put to me for Lab losses in #Birmingham by @wmlabour folks – UKIP vote collapsing in white working class areas, handling of the #binstrike, & inexperienced candidates on the doorsteps. Single wards nearly done now. Prediction is for #Labour in charge – but by how much?

This time last year James Burn was taking on Andy Street for the West Midlands Mayoralty. Today, he’s retained his seat on Solihull Council and is celebrating a good night for his Green group in the Borough.

Birmingham’s results will be fascinating, for a range of reasons. Given Labour’s relatively poor night – not least in the expectation management game – the party will be hoping it can buck the trend and increase its control over the newly formed council.

Birmingham has a habit of kicking the trend, so Labour could do even better than expected.

Leading Labour politicians had told Chamberlain Files they expected the state of the parties to remain broadly where they were, albeit in the newly formed seats.

What impact will Andy Street have on the Tory vote? He was mentioned on almost every page of the party’s manifesto in the city. He had a good night in the Black Country, can his winning run help Birmingham Conservatives?

What about the bins? After all, bins and pot holes usually rank highest on local voter concerns. Given the 221 day industrial waste management dispute, Cllr Alden and co should be cleaning up.

But the electorate’s patience with austerity is clearly wearing thin – and Birmingham city council has been hit hardest by funding cuts.

The shadow of Brexit hangs over almost every other aspect of politics. Leave areas seem to bending towards the Tories. As elsewhere, we will be watching for where Ukip votes are dispersed.

Labour seems to be doing better in urban areas, especially those with a large proportion of ethnic minority voters. However, Labour is clearly struggling in Jewish communities.

Theresa May started the week with a Cabinet resignation and a seeming inability to convince top table colleagues of her favoured approach on the Customs Union.

Are voters now taking a different stance at local elections than they might when choosing a Government? The Tories did very well in last year’s mayoral and council elections, but then bombed at the General Election, not helped by a terrible campaign.

So, the city at the centre of the country will be at the heart of the political story today.

Look, if Labour cannot maintain control of Nuneaton & Bedworth Council with a commanding majority, then there’s something very wrong at the heart of Labour. A dreadfully poor result. #LocalElectionspic.twitter.com/LD2cAeDIpm

The great psephologist Sir John Curtice will feature, no doubt, as the night goes on. If you’re a real anorak, or just need to fill time before we get any results, enjoy his briefing for the Political Studies Association:

—

What happens to the Ukip vote will be one of the stories of the night, especially as many of the seats being contested tonight were last fought in 2014 – when Ukip reached its high water mark.

Labour is in danger of losing control of Nuneaton and Bedworth, with the Tories up 9 net seats at present.

Senior #Ukip councillor in #Dudley tells me it is ‘total wipeout’ for the party who defend 6 seats here.