A California tomato farmer checking the water content in a field last month

Associated Press

Singapore-listed Olam International Ltd. shares have risen 12.3% year-to-date, and 14% since the start of February. Shares in Wilmar International Ltd., the world’s largest palm-oil refiner, and Hong Kong-based Noble Group Ltd. have both risen about 12% since the beginning of February.

“Several agricultural markets have experienced a pronounced swing of sentiment in February” because of weather factors, Commerzbank wrote in a note.

A drought in California has sent prices of almonds soaring, which has a significant impact on the earnings of Olam, the world’s second-largest grower of almonds. California produces 80% of the world’s almonds.

Olam is also exposed to the rising price of tomatoes in California: The company says it’s the largest processor of organic tomatoes in the U.S. California is responsible for around 30% of the world’s processed tomatoes, and 95% of U.S. tomato-paste production, according to Barclays.

Olam and Noble both trade cocoa. Cocoa prices are reaching their highest levels this year since 2011, thanks to growing demand and a shortage of the chocolate ingredient. There’s also some disruption in supply from Indonesia, the world’s third-largest cocoa producer, because of rains.

Coffee is another big winner this year, with drought conditions in Brazil pushing prices of arabica beans up about 70% since the start of the year. Olam and Noble both have significant exposure to coffee.

Even sugar, which has seen years of surpluses, could start to see prices creep up. Olam, and its peers Noble and Wilmar, are all exposed to sugar, which has been a drag on their earnings. Prices have risen this year thanks to the drought in Brazil, the world’s biggest grower and exporter of sugar.

“Most short-term oriented market players have bet on falling prices since December,” said Commerzbank analysts, who note speculation the global glut in sugar could end in 2014-15.

Then there are geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, which are being even felt on the plantations of Southeast Asia. Palm oil prices hit a one-and-a-half-year high this week, due in part to worries that the unrest in Ukraine could disrupt supplies of crude oil and oilseeds. Palm oil is used to make biodiesel, an alternative energy source.

Barclays also notes that palm oil, which can be used as a cooking oil, could get a boost if there’s any shortage in supply of sunflower seed and sunseed oils: Ukraine is the world’s largest producer of those commodities.