Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Zerban poll has him within single digits of Ryan

One day after Paul Ryan's campaign put out poll numbers that had him up 25 points on his challenger, Dem opponent Rob Zerban released a survey of his own this afternoon that had the spread in the upper single digits.

The poll, conducted Aug. 21-23, found 47 percent of respondents backed Ryan, while 39 percent supported Zerban and 4 percent favored Libertarian Keith Deschler. Eleven percent of respondents were undecided. The numbers for all three candidates included leaners.

The survey of 404 likely general election voters in the 1st CD was conducted before the Republican National Convention. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The Zerban polling memo from Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates argued Zerban remains a credible challenger. It also said the eight-point spread was found "after voters hear Zerban's profile statements." It did not include what information respondents were given before being asked about the race.

It also argues the race will become very competitive as "Zerban initiates a more active communications and outreach program over the next few weeks."