The World Bank pioneered global HIV and AIDS financing early in the emergency and remains committed to achieving Millennium Development Goal 6, to halt by 2015 and begin to reverse the spread of HIV and AIDS, through prevention, care, treatment, and mitigation services for those affected by HIV and AIDS.
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The authors develop a model of optimal
growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the
expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle
East and North... Show More + Africa region-Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran,
Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model
incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two
transmission factors-sexual intercourse and exchange of
infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high
levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine
the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the
authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The
prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16
percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in
50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across
countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of
today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe
scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors
quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to
clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that
these interventions act as an insurance policy that
increases social welfare. They also show that delaying
action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent
of six percentage points of today's GDP. Show Less -

The authors develop a model of optimal
growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the
expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle
East and North... Show More + Africa region-Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran,
Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model
incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two
transmission factors-sexual intercourse and exchange of
infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high
levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine
the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the
authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The
prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16
percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in
50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across
countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of
today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe
scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors
quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to
clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that
these interventions act as an insurance policy that
increases social welfare. They also show that delaying
action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent
of six percentage points of today's GDP. Show Less -