&nbsp947 &nbspFXUS65 KSLC 150406 &nbspAFDSLC &nbsp &nbspAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION &nbspNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT &nbsp1006 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2019 &nbsp&nbsp &nbspSYNOPSIS &nbspWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY &nbspWINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM &nbspSYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE &nbspSTATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp&nbsp &nbspSHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY) &nbspTHE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL &nbspTROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITCOL AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTS WILL &nbspCONTINUE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE COAST LATE SUNDAY &nbspNIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. FROM THERE THIS FEATURE WILL EXHIBIT SOME &nbspWEAKEN WITH JUST A SMALL CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT TO ACCOMPANY THE &nbspRESIDUAL TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT &nbspTHROUGH TUESDAY. &nbsp &nbspINCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER &nbspTROUGH BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND &nbspGUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING &nbspTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WELL MIXED AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE &nbspSTRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED WITH READING &nbspGENERALLY RUNNING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. &nbsp &nbspTHE MOISTURE POOLED OVER ARIZONA WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH &nbspTONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN UTAH SUNDAY. THE &nbspWESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL WORK NORTH THROUGH THE &nbspCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR &nbspISOLATED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE &nbspADVANCING TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO SCOULDOME OF THIS MOISTURE AND &nbspDRAW IT INTO NORTHERN UTAH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE BEGINNING &nbspMONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP &nbspMONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ALONG AND BEHIND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A &nbspFAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST AREA FOR STRONG &nbspCONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND &nbspSTRONGEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF &nbspTHE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. &nbsp &nbspTEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK DIVE BETWEEN &nbsp15-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MORE MODEST 5 TO 12 DEGREE &nbspDROP ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL &nbspBE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, WITH SNOW LEVELS POSSIBLY &nbspDROPPING DOWN NEAR 7000 FEET DURING THIS PRECIP EVENT. &nbsp&nbsp &nbspPREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY) &nbsp &nbspSHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE MID-WEEK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS &nbspANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN &nbspLATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE &nbspPAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER THE DETERMINISTIC VERSIONS SEEM TO BE IN A &nbspBIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. &nbsp &nbspTHE NEXT TROUGH PASSAGE WILL APPROACH UTAH LATE THURSDAY BRINGING &nbspGUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOWLEVELS WILL &nbspAGAIN DIP TO AROUND 9,500 FT OR SO, RESULTING IN SOME WHITE &nbspPRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF NORTHEAST AND EASTERN UTAH. THE &nbspFEATURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF UTAH BY LATE FRIDAY LEAVING BEHIND &nbspCOOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp&nbsp &nbspAVIATION &nbspA DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL &nbspMAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES DURING THE CURRENT TAF &nbspPERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND &nbspINCREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF &nbspTHE SOUTH WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHIFT TO THE &nbspNORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z. &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp&nbsp &nbspPREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER &nbsp &nbspA WARMING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY. RH VALUES INCREASE SUNDAY AND &nbspMONDAY WITH THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO &nbspSCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF &nbspI-15. &nbsp &nbspBREEZY CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING &nbspLOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY, WINDS &nbspSTRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE &nbspWEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY &nbspBEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. &nbsp &nbspCOOLER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK. &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp&nbsp &nbspSLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES &nbsp &nbspUT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT &nbsp FOR UTZ494-497-498. &nbsp &nbsp FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING &nbsp FOR UTZ482-489. &nbsp &nbsp FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT &nbsp FOR UTZ478-492-495. &nbsp &nbspWY... &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbspSHORT TERM... &nbspLONG TERM... &nbspAVIATION... &nbspFIRE WEATHER... &nbsp &nbspFOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... &nbspHTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY &nbsp &nbspFOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION &nbspVISIT... &nbspHTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP &nbsp