ITF: Transport CO2 reduction pledges fall short
20/11/18

Climate change cannot be stopped without decarbonising transport. Yet current transport CO2 reduction commitments are not enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The transport sector must cut 600 Megatonnes of CO2 on top of current reduction pledges to meet the minimal target of the Paris Agreement

Reduction pledges for transport CO2 are not enough to meet climate goalsAround 80% of countries that signed the Paris Agreement acknowledge transport’s role in CO2 mitigation by including it in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Yet best estimates indicate that the transport-related pledges up to 2030 are not in line with limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, let alone with the 1.5-degree scenario envisaged by the Paris Agreement. If countries implement all their transport NDC pledges, transport CO2 emissions in 2030 would still be about at the level of 2015. In this case, transport CO2 emissions would be 1400 Megatonnes less than in a baseline scenario that assumes some limited decarbonisation action - but achieving even a 2-degree scenario would require further reductions of around 600 Megatonnes of CO2.

Available policies and technologies allow for more ambitious targetsCurrently available and foreseeable policy measures and technologies could put transport on a pathway compatible with scenarios “well below” a 2-degree temperature increase by 2030. This requires increased political will to make use of existing policy levers and ensure that available technologies are deployed and scaled up. Beyond 2030, policy and technology innovations and are required to meet climate goals.