Florida politics, policy, and plain-spoken analysis by Gary Fineout.

Hillary Clinton

October 12, 2016

In a federal courtroom on Wednesday, a judge will hear arguments on whether or not the state's voter registration deadline should be extended beyond 5 p.m. due to Hurricane Matthew.

U.S. District Judge Mark Walker has already pushed back the Oct. 11 deadline by a day in order to hold the hearing after the Florida Democratic Party filed a lawsuit on Sunday evening. In his ruling granting the one-day extension, Walker said that the deadline amounts to a "severe burden on the right to vote" and he suggested it was unconstitutional.

The party filed the lawsuit after Gov. Rick Scott turned down requests including an informal suggestion from the campaign of Democratic nominee HillaryClinton to extend the deadline. Scott, who is supporting GOP nominee Donald Trump, said the reason he was doing it was that people had already had enough time to register.

It's not clear how hard the governor's office plans to fight to keep the deadline. A spokeswoman for Scott put out a statement on Tuesday that said that the state will accept the judge's decision _ and that the governor would even seek to change the law during the upcoming 2017 session.

But one question that is floating out there - and one that may not be totally resolved after the court hearing - is just how much power does Florida's governor have during emergencies?

Walker in his ruling suggested - but not definitely - that Scott lacked the authority to extend the voting deadline.

In his order Walker wrote that while Secretary of State Ken Detzner was an appropriate person for Democrats to sue since he was the chief election official, he didn't think that applied to the governor. He noted that while Scott has "general emergency powers" those powers may not include any power to alter the voting registration deadline. Those powers generally allow the governor to suspend laws if there is a declared emergency.

Walker pointed out, however, that there is a carve out in existing Florida law that allows the governor to delay or suspend an election due to an emergency. The judge then notes that section of law says nothing about changing the voter registration deadline.

That led Walker to conclude it is "wholly irrational in this instance for Florida to refuse the extend the voter registration deadline when the state already allows the governor to suspend or move the election date."

This was an interesting point brought up by Walker since the lawsuit did not even delve into Scott's emergency power. Instead the lawsuit filed by the party suggested that Scott's decision to keep the deadline amid the disruption, power outages and evacuations that occurred due to Matthew amounted to a violation of federal law and disenfranchisement of voters. Scott himself did not cite a lack of authority as a reason for his decision.

Now the elections emergency law cited by Walker has been used before.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush used it to alter the election in 10 counties following Hurricane Charley in 2004. This move allowed county officials to delay the start of early voting.

It's important to note here that Bush's order came on Aug. 19 - or less than 2 weeks before that year's primary - so it's not completely comparable. But another part of his order gave the secretary of state's office the power to "modify, suspend, amend" any deadlines in the entire election code that could not be complied with due to the emergency caused by the hurricane.

But the truth is that several Florida governors have used their emergency powers in broad ways _ and in most instances they have never been challenged.

And while I'm sure it could be argued that the actions of past governors do not create any legal precedence, this shows that Scott could have had a justification to take action if he wanted.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, for example, used his emergency powers in 2008 to extend early voting hours (a move that privately infuriated some Republicans, but who opted against suing him). Crist even in the final days of his governorship ordered that the state begin to offer extended jobless benefits to Floridians that had been approved by Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama.

Scott himself back in February 2015 _ without the justification of an emergency _ issued an executive order to suspend an 11th grade standardized test that was about to be given to high school juniors that spring. Scott contended that he could do under his "supreme executive power" but then noted that the Legislature would have a chance to repeal the law that authorized the test later that year.

Were these moves legal? That's hard to tell since the actions were never challenged in court.

But what it shows is that there have been instances in the past where Florida's most recent governors have taken action. And not once did they suggest that they lacked the authority to do so.

July 28, 2016

Shortly before prime-time on Wednesday night, Florida Gov. Rick Scott got a few moments on Fox News to deliver the announcement that he was becoming the national chairman of Rebuilding America Now, a super PAC dedicated to helping GOP nominee Donald Trump become president.

Amid the other activities of the convention _ including the address ofPresident Barack Obama _ it got overshadowed.

But in many ways it's a big signal about the political ambitions and possible future of Scott.

First off Scott's work for the group _ which includes political director Ken McKay (who worked on Scott's 2010 campaign and was political director for the Republican Governors Association) _ will give him a spot to approach donors and network with top Republicans across the nation. It may also give him an opportunity to land more national media coverage in the weeks to come.

Scott told Fox News that the group was well behind the fundraising efforts of the groups supporting Clinton, but said that millions had already pledged to the group. He vowed that "we’re going to do everything we can to set the record straight and make sure everybody knows the difference between Donald trump and Hillary Clinton."

The conventional wisdom has been among many that Scott is destined to run for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Sen. Bill Nelson. Nelson's seat comes up in 2018 and it could be considered vulnerable in a non-presidential election year, especially since the Democratic politician has solidly aligned himself with Obama and Hillary Clinton. Despite backing Trump, Scott very early on took his name out of consideration for vice president.

If you talk, however, to those who know Scott and his thinking, they point to another possibility for the future: Scott mounting his own campaign for president in 2020.

But consider where he stands now _ and how his political fortunes may change depending on what happens in this year's presidential election.

Part of his message crafted by his own set of political advisers, which includes the team from On Message Inc. as well as his former campaign manager/chief of staff Melissa Stone, has been Scott's consistent criticism of the federal government and Obama on multiple fronts.

If Clinton beats Trump, that stays in Scott's political handbook. He can continue to go after the federal government on a multitude of issues, just as he has on Ebola, Zika, the algae blooms etc. etc.

Scott has to change his adversarial tone, however, if Trump wins the presidency (and the Republicans hold onto Congress.)

Scott has said in recent television interviews that he could accomplish so much more if Trump were to succeed. But that brushes asides the complicated political reality that Republicans in Florida are split. This situation could limit what he will be able to accomplish in his final two years in office.

Think about this - Scott has been refusing to raise money for the Republican Party of Florida, but now he has agreed to raise the millions needed to battle Clinton between now and November.

Incoming House Speaker Richard Corcoran and Incoming Senate President Joe Negron have made it clear that they plan to have their own broad agenda on everything from ethics/lobbying reform, higher education, changes to the judiciary. They have been forging a path during this election cycle using the money they have raised on their own and with very little assistance from the governor. Now Scott may align himself with Negron (the old 2 vs. 1 strategy that many legislative leaders have used in the past) but he still may difficulty pursuing his own agenda.

So where does that leave Scott heading forward? It may not matter that much.

While Scott has set adrift several of his campaign promises as governor - and zig-zagged on issues such as Medicaid expansion and immigration - he will be able to point to the state's economic recovery and job growth and declare his tenure as a success. (We'll set aside the whole 700,000 jobs vs. 1.7 million jobs promise and what is the true cause of the recovery for now.) And as of now it's a pretty good likelihood the number of jobs under Scott's watch will likely grow between now and 2018.

So that gives Scott the platform in 2020 to say that he's got a track record of success as an outsider businessman turned politician. He will note he cut Florida's debt and dealt with budget deficits.

It's true he doesn't have the polish of other speakers, or the ability to attract attention the way that Trump has, but his efforts in helping Trump will give him the ability to argue that he was a loyal Republican as opposed to some others who also may be considering a GOP bid four years from now.

Many political insiders have tried to discount Scott for years now. That proved to be a mistake in 2010 and 2014. It could be the same four years from now.