Mitt Romney couldn’t be more different than John McCain. But as he begins his long-anticipated presidential campaign in New Hampshire Thursday, the similarities there are hard to miss.

Like McCain, who defeated him there four years ago, the former Massachusetts governor has a gold-plated organization stocked with New Hampshire primary veterans, enjoys universal name identification and owns a bank full of political goodwill stored up through repeated visits and TLC lavished on all manner of state representatives, county commissioners and sheriffs.

There’s one big difference, however. Unlike the Arizona senator, Romney isn’t suffering through a summer spiral downward. Just the opposite: he’s on a torrid fund-raising pace, is driving a consistent economic message and, perhaps most important, he’s hitting all his marks as some of his most formidable challengers struggle to penetrate a news cycle focused on potential candidates as much as those who are actually running.

“All of this background noise from Sarah Palin and Donald Trump and the talk about Chris Christie and Rick Perry just benefits Mitt Romney,” said New Hampshire GOP strategist Mike Dennehy, who oversaw McCain’s two wins in the state and isn’t supporting any candidate now. “He just keeps his head down as all the attention goes to the sideshow.” (See: Palin takes the media for a ride)

As with McCain four years ago, it’s difficult to envision a path to the GOP nomination for the former Massachusetts governor that doesn’t include a victory in New Hampshire. And his main rivals there, among them former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and possibly Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, know it.

One important factor in Romney’s success is likely to be whether he can persuade the influential Union Leader newspaper to overcome its past objections to him the way they did for McCain. Not only did the conservative daily help boost McCain’s comeback by endorsing the Arizonan in December 2007, it also published a succession of editorials hammering Romney just as voters were beginning to closely follow the race. (See: Romney's 2012 announcement)

In an interview, longtime Union Leader publisher Joe McQuaid didn’t rule out the possibility of getting behind Romney – but he also didn’t suggest it was likely.

“We’re neither warm nor cold on Romney,” said McQuaid. “He’s one of the field and I don’t think it’s a bad field at all.”

If they can’t get the paper’s nod, Romney backers are hoping for at least détente. That could mean anything from endorsing a purist conservative who is not a significant threat to refraining from running front-page editorials day after day lacerating the former Massachusetts governor.

“Benign neglect,” quipped one Romney official, describing what may be the best-case scenario between the candidate and the paper.

Romney officials note that they’re already lined up support from an array of Republicans who didn’t support their candidate in 2008.

The list includes Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, a former member of Congress, attorney and donor Susan Duprey and Doug Scamman, on whose farm Romney will announce his candidacy.

Those gets illustrate a first-in-the-nation habit that McQuaid touched on: “Romney is the strongest guy here because New Hampshire has a record of looking back at the one they didn’t have last time.”

McCain, of course, was a repeat pick, and before him Pat Buchanan (1996), George H.W. Bush (1988) and Ronald Reagan (1980) all won the state after having previously competed and lost there.

Romney doesn’t have a town-by-town organization in place yet, but a top New Hampshire strategist said they had begun putting one together.

“There are 234 precincts in the state and ideally you find somebody in every one,” said Jim Merrill, who ran New Hampshire for Romney in 2008 and is now a consultant for him there. “Mitt Romney is going to run a 10-county campaign here, stem to stern. No place will go untouched.”

Tom Rath, another New Hampshire strategist advising Romney, added: “We’ve kept things together organizationally from last time. We have most of everybody back and we’ve added to it.”

“Not a week has gone by for last three years when I haven’t heard something about what Mitt’s doing here,” said conservative activist Fran Wendelboe, ticking off fundraisers Romney had done for different state and local officials. “Those kinds of things get some traction.”

Just since last August, Romney has been in the state 8 different times for events – and that doesn’t count the time he’s spent at his home on Lake Winnipesaukee. As early as spring 2009, when he appeared in Manchester to attend a fundraiser for the state’s political library, he was meeting privately with a few dozen supporters.

Even Wendelboe, who until recently was helping to woo Donald Trump into the race and said she came away favorably impressed after recently meeting Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), said she was tempted to go with Romney.

“Part of me says you should just go with Mitt because he’s going to win,” she said.

But, she added, there is “the healthcare thing.”

“Independent voters here hate Obamacare as much as Republicans do,” enthused one top backer of a Romney rival here.

Romney advisers insist that New Hampshire voters, many of whom live in the Boston media market, already know about the universal coverage bill the former governor pushed through and that polls show him nonetheless strong even among self-identified tea party supporters.

But neutral observers believe that once Romney’s rivals start putting television points behind the issue it will reveal a potentially fatal flaw.

“When this campaign gets focused and then the attacks start coming, healthcare could be the silver bullet against Romney,” said Dennehy. “On an issue level I think no one is more vulnerable than Mitt Romney. But who makes the attack? Every candidate would like another candidate to do it for them.”

As strong as he is in early polling, the most important figure in the latest WMUR/CNN survey may have been 87 percent—the number of likely GOP primary voters who said they had no idea who they’d back. (See: Poll: Romney has broadest issues support)

And while 25 percent of those Republican primary voters who said they supported the tea party indicated that they backed Romney, 16 percent of this cohort said they didn’t know who they were behind yet and another 34 percent responded by saying they backed somebody else besides the candidates offered in the poll.

“Voters have a favorable inclination toward Romney, but the cement isn’t set yet,” said University of New Hampshire professor Dante Scala. “I don’t think we’re even close to that point.”

Healthcare isn’t Romney’s only obstacle. In a state that treasures the personal connections it makes with candidates, the wealthy former venture capitalist has yet to prove that he can capture hearts as well as heads.

Some onetime Romney backers, having witnessed firsthand his difficulties on the stump, have been hesitant to get back on board.

Former Sen. Judd Gregg, whose support Romney trumpeted four years ago, indicated in an interview earlier this year that he was uncommitted. And Bruce Keough, Romney’s 2008 state chair, has said he won’t support him this time.

Steve Duprey, a neutral state GOP committeeman and former McCain stalwart, recalled the poignant moment in 2007 when his candidate received a bracelet from the mother of a New Hampshire soldier who died in Iraq.

“The voters really need a candidate to show that they connect with and understand their issues, their lives,” Duprey said.

It’s something that’s very much on the minds of Romney backers in the state, who know from experience that New Hampshire voters will look warily upon a robotic and distant message machine.

Bradley, who was neutral in 2008, praised his candidate for being “gracious and friendly and warm” in his recent trips to the state, but then added revealingly: “Not a lot of people would think that about him, but that is who he is.”

Rath, who worked for Romney last time, recounted a dinner in local party dinner in March when Romney got up by himself and walked around the room to talk to voters at every table.

“The biggest difference between then and now is his comfort level,” said Rath.

What worries Romney backers more is the prospect of the McCain 2008 factor taking root.

The Arizonan’s resurrection began when he effectively abandoned Iowa and placed his fortunes almost entirely on New Hampshire.

“A candidate can embed here and say it’s all New Hampshire or bust,” said Merrill, noting that it could be Huntsman. “As McCain proved, if you spend all your time here and tailor your message entirely to New Hampshire you have a chance.”