An Englishman of forty years residence in Wales pontificates about politics (slightly off-message), films and trivia. Secretary of Aberavon and Neath Liberal Democrats. Candidate for Neath in the Westminster elections of 1997 & 2017 and the Welsh general election of 2016.

Sunday, 16 February 2014

A poser for the opinion researchers

On the same day as Labour were successful in having another white not-young male elected in Greater Manchester, there was a council by-election in Birmingham which went against all the prognostications. Kingstanding ward has long been a safe Labour seat.

Gary Sambrook, Conservative 1571 (47%; +7.3%)

Lorraine Grundy, Labour 1433 (42.8%; -6.9%)

UKIP 266 (7.9%; +7.9%)

LD Graham Lippiatt 43 (1.3%; -0.7%)

NF 33 (1.0%; +0.2%)

Majority 138 Con gain from Lab.

Percentage change is since 2012

Three points stood out for me:

According to the BBC report, Kingstanding covers more than one quarter of the Erdington constituency of Jack Dromey, a high-profile MP in his own right, and even more as the husband of the Labour deputy leader, Harriet Harman;

The presence of both UKIP and the National Front did not hurt the Conservative candidate's progress;

While Cllr Sambrook's hard work over the years in contesting the seat was a key factor in his success, it shows that Labour cannot take even safe seats for granted.