The 12 Seats Most Likely To Go To UKIP In The May 2015 General Election

The UK Independence Party (UKIP) is hoping to build on its shock
byelection victories in Clacton and Rochester & Strood by
stealing more seats from the mainstream Westminster parties at
next year's General Election.

Current forecasts have them gaining between 9-14% of the national
vote, although the distribution of those votes could see them
pick up only three or four seats. Even then, doubling their
current representation in Parliament would be seen as a major
coup for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

Given the collapse in Lib Dem support in the polls, Labour or the
Tories may well require more than one coalition partner to secure
a Commons majority. This could leave UKIP as a possible kingmaker
— a
prospect that Farage relishes.

1. South Thanet

UKIP leader Nigel
Farage.REUTERS/Suzanne
Plunkett

Farage was selected by UKIP members to stand in the
Conservative-held constituency in east Kent. Announcing his
intention to stand in
a column for The Independent Farage expressed his confidence
in taking yet another seat from the Tories:

"Of course I think I stand a good chance of winning. I have
fought the seat before and it is in my home county of Kent and an
area I have represented in the European Parliament since 1999."

His confidence aside, it is unlikely to prove an easy ride for
the bombastic UKIP leader. In 2010 the Conservatives won 48% of
the vote, a 7.4% swing from second-place Labour, while UKIP
garnered only 5.5%. However, Farage's party stormed home in last
year's local elections and a
recent poll by Survation at the end of November had UKIP at
30%, only 5 percentage points behind Labour with the incumbent
Conservative candidate pushed into third place.

2. North Thanet

The neighbouring constituency of North Thanet is also high on the
UKIP hit list. Back in 2010 it was also comfortably won by the
Conservatives, with MP Roger Gale taking 52.7% of the vote — a
margin of victory of over 30 percentage points from Labour. UKIP
took a meagre 6.5%.

Verdict: Right on the doorstep of Farage's
campaign, Wauchope is likely to benefit from the media attention
and popularity of his party leader. Highly possible.

3. Boston and Skegness

Since the constituency of Boston and Skegness, on northern shore
of The Wash, was formed in 1997 it has been solidly
Conservative. However, it is also the seat that saw one of the
best UKIP performances at the 2010 election with the party taking
9.5% of the vote.

"Anyway I suppose if they are to get an MP at the next election
then Boston and Skegness is their best bet."

However, the author swiftly dismissed these concerns adding that
"personally I doubt we will get any UKIP MPs". Well, they already
have two at least one of which (Clacton) they are all but certain
to hold next May. So if a wise man today wouldn't bet against
UKIP having at least one MP, what's to stop the party adding to
its tally?

Verdict: This looks to be UKIP's best shot
of adding to its seats. Highly possible.

4. Thurrock

The constituency of Thurrock was held by Labour at each General
Election from 1945-2005 barring a single loss to the
Conservatives in 1987. However, it was taken off them by a
resurgent Tory party in 2010 as MP Jackie Doyle-Price
managed to sneak over the line by a mere 82 votes.

It is among the must-win seats listed by the Labour leadership if
the party is to have any chance of returning with a majority of
seats next year. There's only one problem — UKIP is leading in
the polls.

A
poll by Lord Ashcroft in June showed UKIP on 37% compared to
Labour's 29%. If this result is realised next May it would be a
hammer blow to Labour leader Ed Miliband's dream of a majority
and send some worrying messages to his party's strategists. As
Jim Pickard put it
in the Financial Times:

"It used to be a working
assumption that a strong showing for Ukip would damage the
Tories. But the party’s anti-immigration, anti-EU message is
rapidly picking up supporters in one-time Labour
heartlands."

Verdict: Signs have
been looking good for UKIP in Thurrock, although a win is far
from guaranteed. What can certainly said is that this seat will
be one to watch to gauge whether the party has been able to turn
its surge in the polls into parliamentary gains. Highly
possible.

5. Great Yarmouth

Another Conservative-held coastal constituency that is very much
the heartland of UKIP. The seat has bounced between Labour and
the Conservatives with the latter losing out in the 1997 General
Election before winning it back in 2010.

The result, however, was far from overwhelming with the
Conservatives taking 43.1% to Labour's 33.2%. UKIP took 4.8%.

Even more worrying for MP Brandon Lewis, who is also
the Minister of State for Planning & Housing, is that
UKIP's poll figures have taken huge chunks out of his lead. A
poll by Lord Ashcroft of the constituency in July had UKIP on
32% to the Conservatives' 33% — and that was before the parties
byelection victories over the past few months.

Last month Alan Grey, a local businessman and County
Councillor for Breydon, was picked to replace Smith but clearly
the party's progress in the local area has been set back by
events of recent months. It remains to be seen how much damage it
has inflicted on its chances.

Verdict: Great Yarmouth was looking a much
better prospect for UKIP earlier in the year. If its support
holds up this remains a winnable seat, but that's now a very big
"if". Possible but unlikely.

6. Eastleigh

The
Eastleigh byelection last year provided an early glimpse of
the shock that UKIP was above to give the Westminster
establishment with the party beating both the Conservatives and
Labour into second place behind the Liberal Democrats.

UKIP's Diane James took 11,571 votes or a 27.8% share in a
seat that the Tory leadership had earmarked as a key target for
next May. This put her only marginally behind the victorious Lib
Dem candidate Mike Thornton on 32.1%.

The Conservatives had hoped that Prime Minister David Cameron's
pledge to hold and in/out referendum on the UK's membership of
the European Union would be sufficient to blunt UKIP's
popularity. Eastleigh helped to demonstrate the folly of this
strategy.

There was better news for Cameron from recent polls, however. A
Lord Ashcroft poll from August had the Tories leading on 32% with
UKIP still stuck behind the Lib Dems in third place.

Verdict: The byelection may have been
UKIP's best hope of winning Eastleigh, at least for the time
being. With the party currently sitting in third place this one
looks set to remain just out of Farage's grasp. Unlikely.

7. Forest of Dean

Once again the Forest of Dean in the western part of the county
of Gloucestershire was a comfortable Tory hold in 2010. Mark
Harper held the seat for his party with a 9.2% swing from Labour
to the Conservatives, delivering him 46.9% of the vote to UKIP's
5.2%.

Despite this, the
analysis of local election results in the constituency by
Survation suggested that were they to be replicated the seat
could swing to UKIP, albeit by the narrowest of margins (0.9%).
There are, however, good reason to doubt that local election
results are a strong predictor of General Election performance as
voter turnout tends to be significantly lower.

Verdict: The swing to UKIP in the local
elections was significant but even if they come close to a repeat
performance at the General Election, it still looks like the
Conservative advantage would be difficult to
overturn. Unlikely.

8. Sittingbourne and Sheppey

Sittingbourne and Sheppey is a coastal seat in the far north east
of Kent that was created in 1997 out of a large part of the
old Faversham constituency, which the Conservatives had held
continuously since 1970. The Tories then failed to win the
newly-created seat until 2010 having lost out by only 79 votes to
Labour in 2005.

"As an ordinary working family man who has struggled with
bringing up a young family whilst working in the NHS as a
Paramedic, I feel I can identify with the various needs of people
in this constituency."

Verdict: The Conservative margin of victory
in 2010 is a daunting challenge for UKIP. The party's impressive
result in local elections suggests they are on track to take a
significant proportion of the vote but will it be enough?
Possible but unlikely.

9. Aylesbury

Aylesbury has been a Conservative seat since Sir Alan Hughes
Burgoyne was elected as its representative in 1924. In fact the
Tories have increased their share of the vote in every General
Election from 2001 and even held up well in the party's
disastrous 1997 election that saw a resurgent Labour romp home
with a huge majority.

In other words, this one is something of a long shot.

However, UKIP did come top in the May 2013 local elections
winning 33.4% versus 29.5% for the Conservatives. Support for the
Tories is strong in the rural parts of the constituency but the
party came fourth in Aylesbury itself, where UKIP polled
strongly.

The key local issue is the new High Speed 2 train line route that
is bitterly opposed by a number of local residents. An
article in The Bucks Herald in March described Aylesbury as
"the forgotten victim of HS2" as it would bring "construction
[that] will be hellish for everyone living and working in
Aylesbury".

Stopping HS2 has been the major theme of the UKIP campaign and
has paid dividends at the local level. Turnout in May's local
elections, however, was 30% versus 68% in the 2010 General
Election. If those voters come out again next May this seat will
pose a huge challenge for Chris Adams, UKIP's candidate, to take
for his party.

Verdict:This one looks to be a long a shot for
UKIP. Expect them to do much better than in 2010 but still fall
some way short of a win. Highly unlikely.

10. Worthing East and Shoreham

The constituency was won comfortably by the Conservatives in
2010, as it has been since its creation in 1997. However, UKIP
posted a creditable performance in the last election with 6.2% of
the vote, up from 4.7% in 2005.

That is, what Grimsby could show is that the image of UKIP as the
party of disaffected Conservatives is now well past its sell-by
date.

Verdict: Grimsby looks set to remain a
solid Labour seat, and while UKIP's gains here have been notable
they have mostly come at the cost of the Conservatives to date.
It will be an interesting contest though. Highly unlikely.