Coffee gains as Brazil attempts to raise prices

General Comments: Futures were a little higher on news that the Brazil government will look to raise the minimum price paid to farmers by 30% in an effort to raise prices. It also said it was considering the use of options or direct subsidies to farmers for support. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticipate another big crop out of Brazil starting the summer and as traders move out of May positions before the deliveries start in the next couple of weeks. Ideas are that supplies are good for now and can only increase down the road. The new Brazilian harvest is just a couple of months away, and traders expected big offers to develop on rallies. No one had been paying much attention to the reports of rust in Central America and parts of South America and prefer to concentrate on Brazil and also on improving production conditions in Vietnam. That is because the Central American losses appear to be made up by bigger production in other countries, including Brazil. Rains have increased in Vietnam and crop conditions have improved. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and there are showers around. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.756 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 128.95 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get a few showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. A few showers are posible in northern Central America and southeastern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 134.00, and 132.00 May, and resistance is at 141.00, 144.00, and 147.00 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1990, 1980, and 1955 May. Support is at 1970, 1950, and 1915 May, and resistance is at 2030, 2045, and 2060 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 168.00, 166.00, and 163.00 September, and resistance is at 174.00, 176.00, and 177.00 September.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed higher. Nearby months were a little higher in New York on ideas of more logistical problems in Brazil and on reports of slow shipments from there. Talk that some rain in production areas was hurting harvest progress also created buying. Most traders remain bearish on ideas that big production will be available to the market as the Brazil harvest is processed and comes to market. Traders know that there might be less production in India and Thailand, but expect Brazil to produce enough to cover any losses. So far, no new demand is being reported, and chart patterns continue to look weak. Reports indicate that Brazil will start harvesting next month and that a big offer is expected. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong overall despite the port problems.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1710 July, and resistance is at 1790, 1800, and 1810 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 487.00, 484.00, and 481.00 August, and resistance is at 496.00, 500.00, and 505.00 August.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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