Diaries

A warm front lifting through the area will bring plenty of warm temperatures, but also scattered showers (it's associated low is in the plains). We'll see the cloud cover decrease during the day and also the rain chance too. It's going to be a pleasant evening to celebrate a win and enjoy the remainder of parents and family weekend!

Tailgating

A few scattered showers passed through overnight and they may linger into the morning hours. For you early risers, it's just a bit cool to start the day-sitting in the mid 40s until sunrise. By mid-morning we'll hit 50 degrees and keep the overcast skies. Winds are very light at about 5-6mph out of the SSE.

Kickoff

Continuing to warm up and getting to 55 for the game's start. Might be just starting to get some glimpses of the sun, and there is still a slight chance of a passing shower and we're hanging on to a lot of those clouds! Winds are southerly at about 8mph.

Halftime

A little warmer as you watch the band - 59 degrees for the half. Keeping mostly cloudy skies and winds out of the south at 10mph (leaves rustle about).

Post-Game

Would you believe it's a November game?! 62 degrees in leaving the stadium with mostly cloudy skies. Winds remain out of the south at about 15mph. By dinner time, we're partly cloudy and dry - and grab a drink & stay out late with such mild temperatures! Mid 50s for dinner drops to 50 by the time the doors close. Mostly sunny for Veterans Day, but it will be breezy - gusts in the mid 30s - so be safe if you're driving home from an A2 visit! Go Blue!

Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for NBC/ABC in Traverse City, MI, and temporarily for NBC25 in Flint/Saginaw, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!

I’ve always been a fan of the bowl games, and over the past few years, have spent too much time wondering which school would slot into which bowl. With several schools ineligible to play in the postseason due to a variety of sanctions, I have been curious to see if would be enough teams this year to fill up every game.

This is my first Diary Entry, so please let me know of any formatting issues or other comments. Hopefully you will find this at least mildly interesting.

* Liberty takes either CUSA or SEC team and Hawaii takes Mountain West or WAC team

In total, 35 bowl games meaning 70 slots that have to be filled by eligible teams. Let us see how each conference fairs in terms of eligible teams. The information below is broken down as follows: Eligible Teams (have 6 wins already), On the Cusp (5 wins) and Still Have a Shot (4 wins). I did not account for any 3 win teams since it seems unlikely they will win out to become bowl eligible. I have also provided the remaining schedule beside each team listed under On the Cusp or Still Have a Shot.

Big Ten

Eligible Teams:

Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

On the Cusp:

Michigan State (Northwestern and Minnesota)

Minnesota (Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan State)

Still a Shot:

Iowa (Purdue, Michigan and Nebraska)

Indiana (Wisconsin, Penn State and Purdue)

Analysis:

With 8 slots to fill, the Big Ten will be hard pressed to have enough teams eligible. The sanctions against Ohio State and Penn State are really hurting the Big Ten’s chances to fill up their complement. Minnesota’s best chance is this weekend against Illinois while MSU should become eligible against the aforementioned Gophers. Iowa needs two wins and most of us would cheer if they became eligible with a victory over Nebraska. Indiana has a tough road and needs one against Wisconsin or PSU before taking down in-state rival Purdue in their last game. Schools from non-power conferences are likely watching the Big Ten with interest since the trickle down effect of not having enough teams will only permit more of those teams to get an invitation.

ACC

Eligible Teams:

Clemson, Florida State, Duke

On the Cusp:

Wake Forest (NC State, Notre Dame and Vanderbilt)

NC State (Wake Forest, Clemson and Boston College)

Miami (Fla.) (Virginia, South Florida and Duke)

Still a Shot:

Maryland (Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina)

Georgia Tech (North Carolina, Duke and Georgia)

Virginia Tech (Florida State, Boston College and Virginia)

Analysis:

If not for sanctions against North Carolina, the ACC had the potential to have ten teams bowl eligible. As it is, there should be a strong complement. Personally, I see eight with either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech winning two of their final three games. GT has to win the next two games as I do not believe they will be competitive against Georgia. VT should win the final two games, but as they have been inconsistent this year, neither game is guaranteed.

Big 12

Eligible Teams:

Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU and Texas Tech

On the Cusp:

Oklahoma State (West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Baylor)

West Virginia (Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Kansas)

Iowa State (Texas, Kansas and West Virginia)

Still a Shot:

Baylor (Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State)

Analysis:

With only seven spots to fill, the Big 12 will have at least that many bowl eligible teams. Two of the three On the Cusp will become eligible when they play each other. If Oklahoma State wins at West Virginia, I expect the Big 12 will have eight eligible teams since West Virginia and Iowa State both play Kansas and should win. Baylor has a tough road needing two victories against tough competition. I do not expect that happen.

Big East

Eligible Teams:

Louisville, Rutgers

On the Cusp:

Cincinnati (Temple, Rutgers, South Florida and Connecticut)

Still a Shot:

Syracuse (Louisville, Missouri and Temple)

Pittsburgh (Connecticut, Rutgers and South Florida)

Analysis:

It is all but assured that the Big East will not have the six teams it requires to fulfill its bowl obligations. Cincinnati should already be eligible, but as they played and defeated two FCS teams, they need a seventh win. Beyond that, only Syracuse and Pittsburgh have a realistic chance to reach the six win total, and even for them, that is doubtful. Temple, South Florida and Connecticut each have three wins and need to win out to become eligible.

Conference USA

Eligible Teams:

UCF, East Carolina, Tulsa

On the Cusp:

NONE

Still a Shot:

Houston (Tulsa, Marshall and Tulane)

Marshall (UAB, Houston and East Carolina)

Rice (SMU and UTEP)

SMU (Southern Miss, Rice and Tulsa)

Analysis:

CUSA has six slots to fill, and at this point, I doubt they will get there. To me, the winner of the SMU/Rice game has the best shot followed by the winner of the Houston/Marshall matchup. That would only get them to five leaving one bowl game searching.

Independents

Eligible Teams:

Notre Dame, Navy

On the Cusp:

BYU (Idaho, San Jose State and New Mexico State)

Still a Shot:

None

Analysis:

I think we can expect Notre Dame to reach a BCS game. Navy is already ticketed to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. BYU needs one win, and if achieved, is slotted to fill one spot in the Poinsettia Bowl. Army, who was to go to the Military Bowl, will not be eligible. I expect Air Force might take their spot.

The MAC is clearly going to benefit from other conferences inability to field a full complement of bowl eligible teams. With only three slots to fill, there are already six teams eligible with Western Michigan having a great shot to make it seven. That would mean four teams looking for an invite to an at-large bid.

Mountain West

Eligible Teams:

Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada

On the Cusp:

Air Force (San Diego State, Hawaii and Fresno State)

Still a Shot:

New Mexico (Wyoming, Nevada and Colorado State)

Analysis:

With five slots to fill, the Mountain West is in good shape. Air Force should become eligible against Hawaii, and if New Mexico can take care of Wyoming and Colorado State, that would result in six eligible teams.

PAC 12

Eligible Teams:

Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC

On the Cusp:

Washington (Utah, Colorado, Washington State)

Arizona State (USC, Washington State, Arizona)

Arizona (Colorado, Utah and Arizona State)

Still a Shot:

Utah (Washington, Arizona, Colorado)

Analysis:

With seven slots to fill, the PAC 12 should fill its complement. Both Washington and Arizona play Colorado, which we can assume they both win. This would give the PAC 12 seven eligible teams. If Utah can beat either Washington or Arizona, they should become eligible after defeating Colorado. Arizona State’s best chance is against Washington State. There is a good chance the PAC 12 could have nine eligible teams.

Though the SEC is affiliated with ten bowls, I think they only need nine teams as there is joint responsibility with the Liberty Bowl. I would expect them to reach this figure as the winner of the Ole Miss/Vanderbilt game will become eligible and I think the winner of the Missouri/Tennessee matchup has a great chance. Arkansas has four wins and are listed due to my criteria, but I do not expect them to win any of their remaining games. As I expect the SEC will get two teams in a BCS bowl, this will mean tougher opponents for the Big Ten in their joint affiliations.

The Sun Belt is only affiliated with two bowl games, and with four teams already eligible, the fact that there are so many schools ineligible this year due to sanctions will only help these schools get into a game. Louisiana-Lafayette looks primed to get enough wins, but I have a hard time believing Troy will get that sixth win.

WAC

Eligible Teams:

Utah State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State

On the Cusp:

None

Still a Shot:

None

Analysis:

The WAC has two slots to fill with three teams currently eligible. Texas-San Antonio should be On the Cusp, but they have played too many FCS teams to qualify. This is not a big year for the WAC, which is on life support and may not even exist as a conference for football next year.

Final Analysis

Of the 70 slots available, 53 teams have already qualified. I have a further 17 teams listed as On the Cusp. Even if all those teams qualify, bowl games administrators will breath a sigh of relief. A few of the Still a Shot schools could also come through, which will help to ensure there are enough teams. Otherwise, we go to the new “bowl eligibility” rules, which were summarized at ESPN:

Now, first consideration will go to 6-6 teams with a win against any FCS teams, regardless of scholarships, then 6-6 teams with two wins against FCS schools.

A team that finishes 6-7 and loses in a conference championship would be next, followed by 6-7 teams that normally play a 13-team schedule, such as Hawaii and its home opponents.

Then bowls could then invite FCS teams making the move to FBS, if they have at least a 6-6 record.

Finally, a team with a top-five APR that finishes 5-7 could be selected.

Let’s hope these scenarios are not necessary.

As for the winners/losers, to me, the MAC and Sun Belt conferences will be rewarded for having more than their required complement. With the Big Ten, Conference USA and Big East all expected to fall beneath their affiliated allotment, those games will be looking for teams. Of course, the result will be less desirable matchups, but that has become par for the course.

Preseason Prediction: Michigan will end the year with a +8 Turnover Margin (TOM) or better (2011 was +7). The prediction for TOM for M for this year is based on the prediction that M will be a very good team again this year and is not based on the actual TOM of last year. (Very good teams will have a TOM of +5 or better.) Turnover Margin for the year is currently – 4.

Psychic?: From last week "This is a recurring problem that is not going away and it is very likely that Denard will miss major portions of the next 4 games." Gardner started out shaky but after not playing QB for over a year what else could we have expected? If Gardner had not made that one spectacular play (which seemed to turn everyone's confidence around), it may have been a very scary game.

I am as confused as everyone else as to why the coaches decided to gamble with Bellomy as the backup this year. I had (erroneously) thought that Bellomy had shown himself to be the better QB. That hardly seems likely based on the immediate switch to Gardner for this game. Yes, Denard had never missed an entire game but running QBs are always at risk and DRob is not the biggest in physical size. Just another question we will never know the real answer to.

Michigan Football: Michigan had just 18 pass attempts and 41 rushing attempts for a 66% run play percentage. Overall M has a 62% run play percentage (ranked #11). In 2011 M ranked #11 at 65% run play %.

Synopsis for Turnovers: Here is the overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).

M forced 2 more fumbles (Kovacs & Clark) and recovered one (Avery). The fumble recovery was at 2:49 of the 4th quarter and was completely meaningless. Gardner threw the one pick. Michigan now has 14 different players that have either forced a fumble, recovered a fumble, or intercepted a pass.

For giveaways, Michigan is ranked #14 in fumbles and #6 in fumbles lost but is #124 in interceptions thrown %. Even if you take out the 4 interceptions thrown by Bellomy, M would still be ranked #123 in interceptions thrown %. The good news is that in B1G games, Robinson/Gardner have been much better with an interception % of 2.4% (which would be ranked #45).

For takeaways, M is ranked #71 in forced fumbles, #67 in fumbles recovered, #90 in takeaway fumble recovery %, and #66 in interceptions.

Synopsis for Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Turnovers resulted in a net of 0.41 expected points benefitting Michigan. Eliminating the meaningless fumble recovery at the end of the game, turnovers benefitted Minnesota by 3.41 EP.

The folks at Football Outsiders – FEI are also doing weekly "Revisionist Box Scores" that strips out TOs, Special Teams, and Field Position. FEI calculates the value generated by each drive and then lost on the drive up until the turnover, as if the drive had concluded at that spot on the field. Thru Week #10, FEI has 16% of games where TOs were significant.

(See the Section on Gory Details below for how the adjustment for Expected Points (EP) is calculated.)

National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).

The Gory Details

Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Basically, the probability of scoring depends on the line of scrimmage for the offense. Therefore, the impact of a TO also depends on the yard line where the TO is lost and the yard line where the TO is gained. Each turnover may result in an immediate lost opportunity for the team committing the TO and a potential gain in field position by the opponent. Both of these components can vary dramatically based upon the down when the TO occurred, the yards the TO is returned, and whether the TO was a fumble or an interception.

Here are the details for the game.

The analysis is a bit tricky because: (A) the TO may directly result in lost EP for the offense but (B) only modifies the EP for the team gaining the TO because the team gaining the TO would have gotten another possession even without the TO (due to a punt, KO after a TD, KO after a field goal, etc.). The Net EP Gain must take into account the potential EP gain without the TO. The EP gain without the turnover is based on where the field position would have been for the next possession if the TO had not occurred.

The expected point calculations are based on data from Brian Fremeau at BCFToys (he also posts at Football Outsiders). Fremeau's data reflects all offensive possessions played in 2007-2010 FBS vs. FBS games. I "smoothed" the actual data.

(Click the image to view full size)

Don't know about the rest of you... but I had a hard time feeling good on Saturday night, even after a strong win that spoke very well about the program. First, watching Notre Dame "un-lose" their game in triple overtime was just plain disturbing. But even worse was the whole experience of 'rooting' for Michigan State to win, and ultimately being let down by their shortcomings and occasional ineptitude.

And, of course, it cost us dearly.

So even after the compelling performance by Devin Gardner against a pesky Minnesota team fueled by overconfidence and a sidelined Shoelace... going to bed after the Bama-LSU game still felt like... a loss. And I wanted to address it in this week's strip, even if it meant digging up emotions I've since moved on from. Apologies if it's done the same to you.

On Thursday Tom... wakes up.

CAPTION CHALLENGE RESULTS

Congratulations go out to the winner of the first ever Blockhams Caption Challenge! Our first ever winner is a young, talented and sarcasm-free writer named Brian Cook, who took home over 20% of the 400 reader votes.

For the victory Brian will win an all expense-paid trip to this weekend's Northwestern game, complete with excellent tickets, a tailgate party, media accessibility, and even a meet and greet with media personalities Heiko Yang and Ace Anbender. Thanks to the proprietor of MGoBlog.com for donating this excellent prize package to the winner.

THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every Tuesday here at MGoBlog,
and at least every Thursday on its official home page. Also, don't forget to
check out Friday Roughs, a spontaneous low-end comic based on trending
Michigan events, available on Twitter and Facebook every Friday.

During his first offensive coordinator job at Portland State University (1986-1992) under famous HC Pokey Allen, Al Borges coached one of Division II's most talented quarterbacks in John Charles.

Charles' career at PSU was brief. He played only his junior and senior years at PSU, but broke dozens of passing records at the Division II level and won several post season awards. Charles is most famous for leading the Vikings to an improbable 1992 52-26 trouncing of Boise State on the road, a game that later cost Skip Allen his job at Boise State and motiviated Boise State administrators to hire away Allen and his entire staff (including Al Borges) to Boise State in 1993.

As a junior, Portland State finished 11-3. Charles went 201 of 331 (61%) for 3,527 yards, 41 TDs and only 11 INTs. As a senior, Charles was 194 of 281(69%) for 2,944 yards, 24 TDs and 8 INTs.

Here is some footage of John Charles' quarterbacking exploits vs. Boise State in 1992, running what many regarded as the most complex offense in the nation. Note the variations of offensive formations, tons of 3+ wide, single, 2- and 3-back sets, lots of pre-snap motion, screen passes, reverses and all of it with the QB under center.

"John Charles was one of the finest fundamentals quarterbacks I ever coached. His courage in the pocket and overall understanding of our offense made him one of the finest quarterbacks I've ever coached. He has great communication skills and is a valuable resource to anyone he comes into contact with. I've been fortunate enough to coach four first-round draft picks at the quarterback position. John was as good as any of them."