Tag Archives: Week 15 NFL Preview

Last week I only pulled out one win, this up and down roller coaster crap will make an old guy poop himself, but hopefully I can make it to Lucky’s pillow before I let it go. I can’t believe I ever picked the Seahawks, good lord they are an embarrassment. The Bears as well. Oh well, the Chargers made sure I didn’t go winless, but everyone else made me look like a senile gray nose haired bastard. Some would argue that a mirror would show the same thing, but some would get punched in the face by an old guy – and how can you press charges against an old guy? I love me some dogs this week, and I all but guarantee three wins from this bunch. Hold your breath…

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San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia: Lucky said it right when he mentioned that the 49ers have one single double digit loss this season – only one single loss by more than one score – that’s good enough for a +9 bet no matter who they are playing. I liked seeing Mr. Singletary get back to his run game last week against a good run defense – and while I’m sure the Niners will shoot themselves in the foot with the pass, they are good enough to play with the Eagles. Close games are their MO.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans: I don’t know why, but the Dolphins look like a good bet here. They are questionable in the secondary, but that shouldn’t hurt them too bad here. They have been able to run on anyone, and that could help them keep this close. Expect them to take a few more chances this week. They might lose, but Tennessee is king of the field goal win, and that still makes my Dolphins an ATS winnner.

Green Bay Packers (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I don’t get it. Are the books senile too? This crap never gets old, last year’s super bowl team no longer exists guys, that’s a thing of the past, like when skinny jeans took over for MC Hammer pants as the next thing that is cool now that will be remembered with lots of suck, the Steelers are an old champ that resemble hammer pants in today’s game. I’m taking the Pack by a couple scores. Champions don’t play all that well with nothing on the line, and their line has been stepped right over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Seattle Sehawks: Boy the Hawks are bad. Josh Freeman shouldn’t have as much trouble against this soft defense that has loved giving up big plays. Expect the Bucs to do just enough, going as far as nearly pulling the upset in Seattle.

Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints NFL Week 15 Picks: A couple things I know. I know the Saints have done their best work against the best teams they’ve played. I know the Saints are led by one hell of a leader in Drew Brees. I know the Saints have been playing pretty damn good football on both sides of the ball, especially when Sedrick Ellis is doing work up front on defense. I know the Saints are loaded with playmakers, and can run the ball almost as well as they pass it. I also know that the Saints want to win every game, and that competitive spirit is part of the reason they are so goo. I know all these things and yet I’m still taking the Dallas Cowboys, and honestly, I like the Cowboys to give the Saints their first loss of the season. However, taking the 7.5 points makes me feel a lot safer.

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I’m a strong believer in the idea that you don’t give a good team a touchdown to play with and get away with it too often. Despite the Cowboys recent publicity labeling them a soft late season football team, and their 0-2 start to December looming, the Cowboys are a pretty good team. A touchdown loss to the Giants in New York and a 3 point loss to San Diego don’t sound so bad when you think about it.

New Orleans has had a tough time of it lately, needing magic, luck, and a crappy kick to beat the Washington Redskins in overtime two weeks ago, and barely getting by an injury ridden Falcons team 26-23 last week. It may be their time. I know they want to win them all, but I think Dallas gives them a run, if only to shut people up in Big D.

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Week 15 Picks: Believe it or not, I think the Browns have some positive vibes going through the organization right now. There’s a pretty good chance a proven winner is going to take over the football operations of a Cleveland team that hasn’t seen the playoffs since the Browns turned into the Ravens.But this team has been pretty competitive over the last 4 games, even going as far as beating the Steelers last week on Thursday Night Football. They’ve had three extra days to prepare for one of the bottom dwellers in football. I think they have an amazing chance to win 2 games in a row, something I didn’t think I’d be saying this season. They’ve already covered 4 straight games, and they’ve scored more points over the last 4 games than the scored the first 8 games of the season combined. Like it or not, the Browns are hot – for Browns anyway.

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The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been playing their worst football of the year. After being competitive for the early stretch, and going as far as winning 2 straight and covering three straight, the Chiefs have been outscored 103-37 over the last 3 games. Kansas City is just 1-5 at home this season, one of their worst home performances that I can remember. While their running game has being going well, Matt Cassel has been a turnover machine, and his inability to move the ball down field has hurt the Chiefs all year long.

I like the Browns to keep doing what they’ve been doing, playing well defensively and getting enough from Brady Quinn and their young receivers.

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions: Week 15 Pick & Preview: The Cardinals have bounced back all season, and it’s not like the Lions boast to be a formidable foe – and while the Cardinals certainly are tough for me to trust, I have to believe they get back on the horse and pummel a Lions secondary that ranks 451st in the NFL this season. That might be a bit of an exaggeration, but at the very highest, bottom 400…

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The problem with taking the Cardinals is that if they won, Vegas would get killed. It happens every once in a while, don’t get me wrong, and that’s never been a reason for me to go one way or another, but it is a reason to think twice about the amount of dough you throw down on the Cards. In some books I see 98% wagers on the Cards – in other books, right around 75%. The overall numbers I see has 71% of the public taking the Cardinals – but like I said, the books don’t always win.

The Cardinals haven’t lost two games in a row all season long. They are 4-2 on the road this season, 4-2 ATS as well. But they’ve lost each of their last 2 road games, and aside from their 30-17 win over the Vikings two weeks ago, the Cards haven’t been playing great football of late. Losses to the 49ers and Titans and a win over the Seahawks when they were down in the 4th – those have to bring up some questions. But like I said, they haven’t lost 2 in a row all season long, and against a Lions defense where they can run with success, I like big plays to be key to an easy Cardinals cover.

Week 15 NFL Picks, New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: Are the Patriots better than the Bills? You bet, but there’s something to be said about the perfect match-up, and how can you not take a team that plays with anybody during the first three quarters, only to lose most of their games in the 4th – against a team that plays well in the first half, only to struggle and let their opponents back in the game in the 2nd? How can you? Oh, I know, you can’t because these are the Patriots and the Bills are the underdog, and for that reason I can at least respect you – but I have to take the underdog, because not only are the Bills playing better football, smarter football, but they’ve played the Patriots tough once already, in a game they should have won, and they’ve played pretty tight games with New England in the last three match-ups. But mostly, this is the Bills Super Bowl, a chance to pile on a tough season for the playoff bound Patriots, a chance to get a big win.

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The Bills have won 2 of their last 3 games, and have played pretty good football in each of their last 4 contest, winning ATS in three of them, and falling by just 6 to the Jets.

The Patriots are just 1-5 on the road, and their one win came as the “road team” in a game played in England – not New England, regular old across the Atlantic Ocean, England. So yeah, they are winless on the road this season, and quite honestly, they’re probably playing their worst football of the season. Asking for the Bills to win outright might be a little much, but as 7.5 point dogs, I like their chances.

Week 15 NFL Picks: Chicago Bears vs Baltimore Ravens: Listen, I, as much as anyone, think the Chicago Bears are garbage – but right now you can get them anywhere from 11 to 12 point underdogs, and this team just hasn’t lost many games by a margin that large. What else? The Baltimore Ravens put up 48 points last week and still only average 24.5 points per game. The Bears have also lost everybody money this year, at least everybody backing them, they are just 4-9 ATS on the season, 5-8 overall. That last record will get worse, that first one will get better.

The Bears have lost 3 games by double digits, Arizona, Minnesota, and Cincinnati (in the Bengals biggest offensive performance of the season). All of those teams have been better than the Ravens this season. But all three have a pretty tough run defense, and if that commonality is the key, the Bears could have a tough time, because you know the Ravens can stop the run.

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But what has me on the Bears side is their normally close ball games, and their ability to pick on secondaries that struggle in pass defense. The Bengals aren’t bad, but their secondary can surely be exploited. The Bears have some very fast receivers, and Jay Cutler has one of the best arms in the NFL. Now I know the Ravens will get the better side of a couple Jay Cutler passes, and I know the Bears defense isn’t what it used to be, so we’re just going to call this a whim. I’m taking Chicago to cover here.