posted at 12:15 pm on December 29, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Two polls released today show Barack Obama in serious trouble for re-election. Rasmussen has polled Obama head-to-head against various Republican candidates most of the year, and in today’s matchup against Mitt Romney, Obama falls behind among likely voters to the widest margin yet:

Mitt Romney has now jumped to his biggest lead ever over President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. It’s also the biggest lead a named Republican candidate has held over the incumbent in Rasmussen Reports surveying to date.The latest national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters favor the former Massachusetts governor, while 39% prefer the president. Ten percent (10%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

A week ago, Romney trailed Obama 44% to 41%.The week before that, he held a slight 43% to 42% edge over the president. The two candidates have been essentially tied in regular surveys since January, but Romney remains the only GOP hopeful to lead Obama in more than one survey. Despite Romney’s current six-point lead, his latest level of support is in line with the 38% to 45% he has earned in matchups with the president this year. However, Obama’s 39% is a new low: Prior to this survey, his support has ranged from 40% to 46% in matchups with Romney.

It’s Obama’s number that is more significant in these early head-to-head matchups. Republicans are still vigorously contesting a primary, which means Republicans haven’t united behind a candidate in the way Democrats are already lined up behind Obama. These head to head matchups will only truly be on an equal basis after the nomination has been wrapped up by someone, whether that’s Romney or another Republican candidate. An incumbent who can’t break 40% in a poll, especially at this stage of the race, is an incumbent in deep, deep trouble.

The internals of this poll show how. Obama is losing independents 45/29, while party loyalty on both sides is pretty stable; Romney gets 79/8 among Republicans, while Obama gets 80/11 among Democrats. Obama carries the under-$20K demographic and the two demographics above $75K, but only within the margin of error, while Romney wins the three middle-class income demos, two by double digits. But the big eye-opener is Romney’s six-point lead among women [see update II], which would be the kiss of death indeed in a general election for any Democrat, Obama included.

Why does Romney score so well against Obama now? A new Gallup poll might explain the shift:

A USA Today/Gallup poll asked Americans to rate their own ideology — and the ideology of the eight major presidential candidates — on a 5-point scale with 1 being very liberal and 5 being very conservative. Americans’ mean score on this scale is 3.3, meaning the average American is slightly to the right of center ideologically. Huntsman’s score matches that at 3.3, but that mean rating excludes the 45% of Americans who did not have an opinion of Huntsman. Of the better known candidates, Romney’s and Paul’s 3.5 scores are closest to the average American’s ideology.

I’m a little skeptical of a poll that puts Ron Paul in the mainstream of American politics, but that’s what Gallup finds — at least for now, while Paul gets a late vetting in the primaries. The median ideology rating for Americans is a 3.3 on their scale, and Obama scores a 2.3, which is actually further to the Left than Michele Bachmann is to the Right at 4.0.

It’s safe to say that the conservative 42% of the electorate won’t be casting votes for Barack Obama in his re-election bid, and Romney has a closer affinity to the 37% in the middle than Obama does. That leaves Obama with the liberal 19% and a reduced draw on the moderates, which split 44/40 in the Rasmussen poll for Obama, not nearly enough for him to prevail.

Update II: I misread the columns in the internals. Romney trails by six points among women, 40/46, not leads among them. My apologies.

Update III: Rasmussen informs me that the D/R/I in this sample is 33/34/33, which is very close to the 35/35/29 from the midterms. If anything, it might oversample independents just a bit, but otherwise looks pretty solid.

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Rasmussen is a fairly credible polling outfit that uses good methods and good inclusion factors in doing its polling. “Likely voters” is one of the best “predictive” factors in polling, although with eleven months to go this is still a long way out.

Gallup? A friend of mine worked for Gallup in Omaha. She thought they stunk. I agree.

If Gallup polled me and I answered “Yes” to a question and they released a poll saying one person in Nebraska had said “Yes” I would still want verification and a look at their polling methods before accepting the results.

Good stretch of roadway this first week of the actual Christmas season for the Godfather of ObamaCare. Looking like he could very well be the next “The One.” Doesn’t enhance my Christmas cheer, however.

I think the reason Paul shows well is that he always appears to be p*ssed off – as most of us are! That said, looks like Romney will remain as the GOP front runner. Need to find a clothespin with padding/filter come November 2012

Can anybody fill me in on the evidence that Santorum is surging? It was reported on FoxNews.com and Mark Stein but is it just the single CNN poll? Before that poll there was another poll that showed Bachmann closing in on Newt then all of a sudden Santorum was surging.

And I don’t remember Fox News ever reporting that Bachmann was surging when she was in 4th on the prior poll. Did they overlook her?

Since there’s no other Democrat in the race, one has to assume that most of this 10% are Republicans. If Romney is the nominee how much of that 10% does he take with him to extend his lead over Obama even further? Would it be closer to 55/39 for Romney?

I’m happy to see a Republican beating him and I hope that trend holds up.

If Romney is the nominee, I will vote for him in the general. If he is the nominee, I hope he wins. However, the moment he goes liberal is the moment I stop supporting his administration and work to see him ousted in 2016.

There is still time for the Republicans to royally screw this up. It has been done before. And with the full weight of the media desperately trying to shore up Boy Wonder, it will take some very adept campaigning to avoid that.

obviously the Republican nominee is going to be Mittens. But it really makes you wonder why the media is pushing him so hard (conservative media). Do they really believe this guy is that great? Or do they believe all other options are that bad? Personally, if Mittens gets in I will just stay home voting day. I live in a very conservative State and it would not matter BHO would never stand a chance.

Those will become ammunition in the arsenal in a general election. In addition a lot of mud will be thrown against the wall to see what will stick. There are far too many people on the right, in the middle and on the left that still believe where there is smoke there is fire.

I’m happy to see a Republican beating him and I hope that trend holds up.

If Romney is the nominee, I will vote for him in the general. If he is the nominee, I hope he wins. However, the moment he goes liberal is the moment I stop supporting his administration and work to see him ousted in 2016.

joekenha on December 29, 2011 at 12:26 PM

My thoughts exactly. Honestly, if he places a couple of young conservatives on the high court, I’ll cut him some slack on a small liberal policy item here or there — but if he nominates moderates, especially if he has a GOP Senate, I will drive to Washington myself and camp outside the Senate chambers. You want a legacy, Mitt? Give the next generation a conservative court!

As such, it is sickening and disappointing that this website chooses to join in the yadda yadda fest of Party True Republicans.I will vote for Gingrich in the Primary; of those running, he has the best ideas and testicular fortitude to win against Obama – NOT RomneyCare Boy.

FACT: Mitt Romney signed into law the now infamous RomneyCare, which not only raised medical rates up hundreds per month but also turned citizens from free men into indentured servants to the State of Massachusetts, who now can fine one $2000 for simply doing nothing. He signed it with a big grin on his face surrounded by the like of Ted Kennedy. Does that sound like a conservative?

FACT: Literally days after the Federal ban on Assault weapons expired, Mitt Romney signed into law Massachusetts own version, smugly saying “people don’t need these guns”. Does that sound like a conservative?

Romney is a soft target, his numbers are like a soufflé, they look huge not and they will crumble in the end, because Willard thought it was clever to bypass and ignore conservatives and to pander directly to the middle. But unlike conservatives, centrists dont defend Republican candidates against smear campaigns and in the coming shitstorm they will simply desert him like they deserted McCain.

If the Race comes down to Obama and Romney it will split the big-gov liberal vote two ways and there will be 3rd party choices that will oppose Obama/Romneycare and represent small-gov. If any of them are good enough I hope people will give up the worthless “R” label that now represents left-of-Ted-Kennedy flip floppers and vote for the better 3rd party option instead.

But the small-gov side will have to compromise with their allies. Conservatives need to learn to take the concerns of people like me seriously. They can’t just throw somebody like Santorum into the mix and insist I vote for religious government while they ignore Bachmann for mysterious reasons that nobody seems to be able to articulate without calling names. And likewise, a minority of small-gov people who support illegal immigration need to realized they’re the minority and that the majority of us oppose that. If they want to shove amnesty down their allies throats then the coalition won’t work. And people like me who oppose illegal immigration and support Bachmann have got to realize that we don’t want to put our farmers out of business and we need to solve the problem in a way that will work for American agriculture.

I live in an agricultural area and I don’t want to my neighbors out of business, but I don’t want illegal aliens taking over my country and changing it into a banana republic either.

And if the small-gov factions can learn to get along again and reform a coalition then we’d have no problem defeating Obama or Romney separately, let alone if they help us out by splitting between two separate tickets for some inexplicable reason.

The only reasons Paul is doing well is because of his domestic policy and his isolationism in foreign policy. I don’t think most Americans would seriously want him as president, but it does speak to the anger many Americans feel when they see billions of U.S. dollars fly off to countries like Pakistan for example. Also I think many Americans are sick and tired of playing the world’s policeman and want our foreign policy to be limited to what is best for the U.S.

I notice a lot people fretting over a return to a pre-1914 world, but honestly what was so bad about that world from America’s point of view? Sometimes it is better to let you enemies kill themselves off rather than do the job yourself. In other words what was so bad about the Iraq-Iran War in the 1980s? What about a war between the Taliban and Iran, which nearly happened in the 1990s. Stability is overrated sometimes.

With all that said, most Americans when they really look at Paul close up don’t want total isolationism and a total retreat as a military power. I think most just want to be more selective in who we help and what we do.

…So if this was Pre-Primary Newt propaganda you’d be … praising it? Those “FACTS” are more opinionated than factual. If you don’t like the way Hot Air or Townhall is treating your candidate then why stay? I don’t feel anyone is promoting one candidate, acting pretty fair to each, even giving lesser candidates a profile (such as Santorum, who I extremely dislike).

A telephone poll conducted on a hypothetical election being held today is a far cry from what will happen in the polling booth after 6 months of intense campaiging by a wimpy metro male who has no core beliefs and can’t campaign against Obama care. If Hillary Clinton is added to the Obama ticket as VP, this is all irrelevant and Obam’s numbers will rise significantly. Whoever the Pubs. RINO candidate is he better choose a very good female VP candidate. Lynn Cheney or Marsha Blackburn are two that come to mind. Perhaps even the tea party turncoat SC Gov. Haley. But she does have the charge of an extra-marital affair in her background that was used against her in her SC campaign. That will be hard to shake in a national election. I’m sure there are others worthy of a looksee.

If conservatives retire from the court he might be allowed to replace them. Depends on whether the dems have enough senators to filibuster. They’ve seen what happened when we forced Bush to put some conservatives on.

If a liberal justice or two retires then it is a pipe dream to believe that the dems won’t go nuclear if he tries to appoint a conservative in their place.

However, his state appointments don’t lead me to believe that he would back strong conservative justices. We will probably get the second coming of a Harriet Myers.

In your analysis you are assuming that those who say they are conservative or very conservative will vote for Romney in the general election. I will never vote for Romney, and I am one of those who have voted in the Hot Air poll as a conservative.

I would be interested in a head-to-head poll with Obama vs. Romney, Gingrich and Paul in the same poll. Or would that be acknowledging that not even one primary vote has even been cast yet.

To the Romneycare rump lickers, Why exactly are you supporting him. Is it his record, Romneycare, tax increases, flip flop on every important social issue, 47th out of 50 states in job creation, his support for cap & tax, his squish views on immigration, his liberal appointed judges, his support for every bailout etc..

If your voting for electability, you have some problems. He lost in 2008 in the GOP primary even though he had the most money, he couldn’t get relected gov. in ma. so he decided to move up in class and he has no core supporters this year. In short, your supporting an empty suit who is not Obama.

So take this a step further, if by a miracle he beats obama, what do you get, you get a liberal w/no core beliefs that will set the conservative movement back 50 years like what George H w bush has done.

A USA Today/Gallup poll asked Americans to rate their own ideology — and the ideology of the eight major presidential candidates — on a 5-point scale with 1 being very liberal and 5 being very conservative.

Certain candidates are far more vulnerable to the “Palin treatment” than others. Just throwin’ that out there.

KingGold on December 29, 2011 at 12:20 PM

Anybody’s vulnerable to it. As we shall see. Just sayin’. The difference is that with folks like you it will just be considered in worse form to give credence to and repeat media smears against Romney than against Palin.

The Socialists in the National Media and the Democratic Party know their Marxist ideology is on the line – we should expect just about anything from them.

Chip on December 29, 2011 at 12:46 PM

Like convenient poll results that direct people to vote for the “only guy that can beat Obama”. The same guy the establishment Reps and Dems have been pushing for the last 2 years. And the sheeple allow themselves to be herded right into the Romney voting booth because polls don’t lie.

Ronald Reagan was a social conservative. George Bush was a social conservative. Did they give you religious government? I didn’t think so. While Santorum is a social con if he won his belief’s are just his against many others. What makes you think he could convince congress or the courts to side with him. You are afraid of the wrong thing.

If we continue to put in western European style conservatives who only promise to manage the nanny state more efficiently then we continue this fiscal slide into bankruptcy and a failed nation.

Plus I also think most republicans think Romney is electable, but don’t think he is a conservative. Two different things.

I am not a fan of Romney, but I would vote for him, however I would vote for Obama’s teleprompter before I vote for Obama. The only hope is the GOP wins the senate, still dominates the house and forces a President Romney to be a passive president who does their bidding. That will only work, however, if the House and Senate GOP leadership is conservative themselves or even smart enough to be in command, which is in real doubt at this point.

obviously the Republican nominee is going to be Mittens. But it really makes you wonder why the media is pushing him so hard (conservative media). Do they really believe this guy is that great? Or do they believe all other options are that bad?

DDay on December 29, 2011 at 12:33 PM

He and probably Huntsman are the ones least likely to upset the applecart in the unlikely event of a victory. Period.

this sudden wonderful romney poll that just so happened to come out only a few days before iowa, plus bachmann’s super PAC switching to romney… it’s all just WAY too convenient.

now romneybots are going to continue to push the “electable!!1!1!” meme. let’s just forget about the fact that he’s a liberal-lite used car salesman, but he is ELECTABLE!!1!1!11 so we should all love him.

Anybody’s vulnerable to it. As we shall see. Just sayin’. The difference is that with folks like you it will just be considered in worse form to give credence to and repeat media smears against Romney than against Palin.

ddrintn on December 29, 2011 at 12:53 PM

The best way to palinize our candidate is to start with the He/she is dumb crap, At least on that front Romney is in the clear,

Trust me i know whats coming, And i am not at all confident that even Romney can win,

Gallup? A friend of mine worked for Gallup in Omaha. She thought they stunk. I agree.

Horace on December 29, 2011 at 12:21 PM

Gallup was started back in the early part of the 20th Century (1930s?) and for decades was considered the Gold Standard for American public opinion polls.

What happened to them? They were forever tainted by their partnership with CNN. That “news network” then threw them under the bus in 2007, so they could partner with a Clinton Crony “Pollster” to do all their polling. That would be Vinod Gupta of ORC, who has been a Clinton Fluffer since the 1990s.

Nice convenient psychological nudge.
I’m convinced..Rahmney is the only one who can win! He’s nice, clean, articulate and doesn’t speak with a Northeastern accent. (Keeps a nice crease in his pants too!)

Plus I also think most republicans think Romney is electable, but don’t think he is a conservative. Two different things.

William Eaton on December 29, 2011 at 12:58 PM

Too many Republicans allow Fox News punditry to dictate their vote. Too many Republicans are every bit as ignorant of politics as Democrats.

Romney wins and Conservativism will be blamed when Romney’s Big Government policies fail Tax code will not be reformed. Fed won’t be audited. No Dept. of “anything” will be removed. Economic status will be remain unchanged or worse and Conservatism will be blamed for the decline. Thus ensuring the inevitable Socialist state in our lifetime. Joy!