Would FF 'do a Tallaght' and support a Minority FG Government?

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Well-known member

Labour have sowed the seeds of their own destruction today by publishing a 2011 budget that does not meet the IMF/EU funding requirements and driving a wedge between themselves and FG. I expect Labour to be battered around the place for being economic illiterates with this budget proposal during an election campaign. For example they will not be able to sell the promise of a €7.5billion tax package over 4 years with their middle class support and also put at risk the incomes of their public service support by renaging on the IMF/EU requirement of a €6billion budget. Labour have just spread themselves too thin to be credible any longer.

If FG can poll 35% on election day, as the leading party they will get a seat bonus that should take themselves to over the 70 seat mark. If FF return anything in excess of 15 seats it opens the possibility of FF 'doing a Tallaght' and supporting a FG minority government as long as it adheres to the broad parameters of the 4 year plan and the 3% of GDP deficit target. FF are committed to the 4 year plan and are fighting the election on the basis that they will follow it. How the tables have turned - now it is FF's turn to support a minority government in the national interest.

Along with the other permatations for the election this is one that has to be considered.

Well-known member

It would make sense for FF to support the new gov be that a minority or majority FG/Inds or a majority FG/Lab govt. Their trick after the next election ought to be to play as nice as possible. It's easy to snipe while supporting them "In the national interest" etc etc.

If Lab are left out in the scenario you envisage, they'll want to be let in next time, which would make an FF under new leadership an appealing partner.

If it's FG/Lab, FF won't need to do a damned thing. It'll eventually collapse on its own. FF don't need to push a lemming off a cliff, you just stand back and talk about how you hope the lemming does it's best. 3 unpopular budgets, Lab upsetting their core, the pressure will be on.

I'd stick money on FF being back in government come 2018.

I'm living in America, and in America, you're on your own. America's not a country. It's just a business. Now f***ing pay me.

Member

Well-known member

Surely you’ve seen how FF operate. There is no way that they would do anything which could either benefit the Blueshirts or damage the potential for a comeback in 2015/16.

In any event I’d guess that the plan of action for FF in the up-coming election campaign will make it impossible. My guess is that the plan of action is as follows:
(i) they will quietly split into two wings with one (let’s call them Official FF) throwing up a few sacrificial lambs in defence of the current government, while the other (the Provisional FF) fields new, up-and-coming strong local candidates.
(ii) They’ll also run two entirely opposite sets of policies: the Officials (quietly) supporting the four-year plan and the Provisionals opposing it (in fact by the time the election is finished and certainly by the time the next one starts a sizeable chunk of the population and media will claim that the four-year plan was, in fact Fine Gael policy).
(iii) They’ll will attack Labour’s new-found public service support claiming that a vote for Labour is a vote for Fine Gael and thus a vote against the CPA.
(iv) At the same time they’ll attack Fine Gael for anything remotely leftist that Labour says claiming that a vote for Fine Gael is a vote for Labour and thus a vote for Stalin.
(v) They’ll not be too bothered with Sinn Fein (yet) as they’ll estimate that their major lift in support is coming from disaffected flag-waving FFers (the Real FF?) who will vote for Sinn Fein when there is no possibility of them forming a government but would run back into Biffo’s arms at the first sniff of any of Sinn Fein’s economic policies making it into a programme for government.
(vi) As their unofficial media wing, RTE will be entirely complicit in selling this nonsense to anyone who listens with the result that they will hive off three per cent each of the SF and Labour votes and one from FG. They’ll also get another couple of per cent in ‘local man/woman’ bonus, particularly in constituencies where Sinn Fein and Labour are relatively weak in terms of organisation or candidates. This will bring them back up to 22-23 per cent and leave them the second largest party as Labour are also going to lose votes on their left to SF who, at the moment, have claimed the mantle of being the ‘Real’ opposition.
(vii) The up-shot will be FF as the main opposition for the next 4-5 years, loudly pouring scorn on any attempt to clean up the mess that they have made of the place and well placed to sleveen their way back to power to commemorate the establishment of the state (by the Old FF of course).

Finally, lest there be any doubt, I hope that either FF are obliterated or that the parties realign in a manner which allows a clear left/right choice to the public. I just don't see either happening.

Well-known member

Labour have sowed the seeds of their own destruction today by publishing a 2011 budget that does not meet the IMF/EU funding requirements and driving a wedge between themselves and FG. I expect Labour to be battered around the place for being economic illiterates with this budget proposal during an election campaign. For example they will not be able to sell the promise of a 7.5billion tax package over 4 years with their middle class support and also put at risk the incomes of their public service support by renaging on the IMF/EU requirement of a 6billion budget. Labour have just spread themselves too thin to be credible any longer.

If FG can poll 35% on election day, as the leading party they will get a seat bonus that should take themselves to over the 70 seat mark. If FF return anything in excess of 15 seats it opens the possibility of FF 'doing a Tallaght' and supporting a FG minority government as long as it adheres to the broad parameters of the 4 year plan and the 3% of GDP deficit target. FF are committed to the 4 year plan and are fighting the election on the basis that they will follow it. How the tables have turned - now it is FF's turn to support a minority government in the national interest.

If FG get 70 seats and Kenny can't seal a deal with Lab he's screwed. There's no way FF will pull his arse out of the fire. We'd be looking at another election with FF recovering lost ground on a "We told ye" ticket and a big chance of FF/Lab/SF.

The great irony is that FF staying out of govt (because it would not be invited in), but supporting a minority FG government on a vote-by-vote basis, just as FG had briefly propped up Haughey on issues on which there was common agreement, would actually help to restore FF's image and prospects in the long-term.

But all indications are that the current FF lot cares feck all for the long term.

Sure, you keep fantasising there. Labour would suffer bigtime in a scenario like that - causing a second election when they had the numbers for a coalition with FG would leave the public suspicious that they were angling for a deal with FF. And FG would gleefully play on that.

"So how are things at the Campaign for the Freedom of Information, by the way?" "Sorry, I can't talk about that"