Departments, employees urged to prepare for next quake

STANFORD -- How well is Stanford University prepared to deal with the next
major earthquake to strike the region?

The good news, according to Police Chief Marvin Herrington, is that
Stanford is probably better prepared than most other San Francisco Bay Area
communities.

The bad news, he told a group of administrators at a Wednesday, April 10,
meeting, is that being better prepared than its neighbors does not mean
Stanford is necessarily well-prepared.

The university does have in place a comprehensive (and intentionally
simple) emergency plan for dealing with the next shaker, but Herrington is
concerned that not all academic and administrative departments and units have
plans and have communicated those plans to their members.

Last 'big one' wasn't really that big

The Loma Prieta earthquake of Oct. 17, 1989, registered 7.1 (some
scientists later calculated the magnitude to be 6.9) on the Richter scale. It
felt major but, in geological terms, it was only a moderate quake. A really
major quake, which is expected once every century or so in Northern
California, would register about 8 (the San Francisco quake of 1906 was an
8.3).

The difference between 7 and 8 is that the latter quake will be 10 times
more violent than the former in terms of energy released and resulting ground
motion.

Herrington said in his presentation to the Public Affairs Council that in
1989, "we were very lucky." While the university sustained about $150 million
in damage, there were no deaths and few injuries.

"Also, it was just after 5 p.m., so there were plenty of staff still on
campus; it was a warm night, so students could sleep on the grass; and we
didn't lose power or utilities to any major extent," Herrington said. Roads
and most communication systems remained mostly open and usable, and, in many
offices, administrators didn't even realize that the quake was serious enough
to have warranted opening the emergency center.

Another bit of good fortune, Herrington said, was having Professor Haresh
Shah on campus. The civil engineering professor, an expert on earthquake
damage and structural stress, along with some colleagues, and with only three
hours of daylight in which to work, managed to do quick inspections of 75
percent of the living units. They were replaced the following day by no less
than 30 teams of inspectors.

Less luck probable next time

If a quake measuring 8 on the Richter scale were to hit, Herrington said,
the Bay Area would be devastated.

"We would have to assume that most of the overpasses and bridges on
[freeways] 101 and 280 would come down," the chief said. "Outside of about a
five-mile radius, you wouldn't be able to get out, and if you're off campus,
you won't be able to get back in."

While the Bay, Golden Gate, San Mateo and other water bridges are expected
to remain standing, "all of the approaches will probably come down."

In most disaster situations, Stanford can rely on help from police, fire
and paramedic departments from neighboring communities.

"If an airplane were to crash here, or something similarly major, we would
have plenty of help," Herrington said. "But when the Big One hits, we're on
our own."

It would be natural to assume that San Francisco, San Jose and Oakland
would be the first recipients of outside aid, "since they'll probably need it
a lot worse than Stanford or Palo Alto."

Concerns about medical center

A major complication to the Stanford scenario concerns the Medical Center.

"If it stays open, it's a plus," Herrington said. "But if the quake takes
out the hospital, there's going to be thousands of injured people looking for
help there and not getting it, plus there's the possible evacuation of 600 or
so patients. I'm really worried about the Medical Center; we just have to
pray that it stays open.

"It's literally the kind of worry that can keep you up at night, thinking
about it."

One bonus for the university is that most of the 13,000 students live on
campus, don't have families in the area or much personal property to look
after, and can play vital roles in post-quake relief and rescue efforts.

"If it happens at a time when most staff are gone, those students are
going to find themselves being made temporary directors of university
departments," Herrington said. To some extent, that occurred in 1989 when
regular staff and managers could not be located right away.

Provisions are in place; plans needed

After the Loma Prieta quake, the university buried a dozen survival
packages in underground bunkers. Each contains a large quantity of food,
water, blankets, first-aid kits and other provisions. There should be plenty
to go around. Also, the emergency center is well stocked with communication
equipment and the like.

But people need plans - plans for themselves, their loved ones, their
departments.

What each student and employee should remember, Herrington said, is to
"take care of your personal plan first. Then, and only then, move on to your
department plan.

"And, if your department doesn't have a plan, I'd advise that it get one,
and fast."

On the personal level, it helps to establish a common phone number outside
the quake zone, a "clearinghouse" where family members and friends can check
in. The friend or relative living outside the quake area can tell callers who
has and has not been heard from.

During the quake, follow the time-honored practice of "duck and cover,"
Herrington said. People should get under a desk or in a doorway, and stay
away from windows or objects that might fall, including roof tiles.

After the quake, "Stay where you are for a while - unless something
happening in the building, like a fire, means you have to get out," he said.
People immediately going outside may find themselves hit by falling tiles or
other debris.

At student residences, resident fellows and resident assistants should
organize their groups after the quake. Most halls now have a prominent red
dot (about a foot in diameter) painted outside, on a sidewalk or in a parking
lot, that is the designated meeting place, so everyone can be accounted for.

Departments should follow a similar pattern, Herrington said. (Detailed
information on how to develop plans is available from the Department of
Public Safety's Earthquake Information desk at 723-0569.)

"Find out who's safe, who's missing, tend to the injured, and designate
one person who should go to the emergency center from each department."

Two vital groups in charge

At the emergency center, located in the Police Department building on
Serra Street, the information coming in from various campus locations will be
coordinated, so that emergency crews can go to the areas needing the most
help. The information will also be gathered and regularly disseminated,
internally through the student radio station, KZSU-FM, and externally via
telephone calls and faxed news releases (from a portable, battery-operated
computer) to local news media.

Two groups will be operating immediately and running the university from
the center for as long as necessary: the emergency operations group and the
planning-policy team. The operating team will be the administrators or
temporary administrators of the various vital support units on campus. The
planning and policy team will include the president, provost and other
academic and administrative officers.

The first group will essentially run the university until the members are
able to get back to their regular offices and conduct their regular business
there. The latter group will face a rather daunting mission, Herrington said.
They must develop plans and make decisions on what to do in the days, weeks,
months and years following the quake.

'Every single thing they decide in the first week after the quake will
have a serious impact on this university for the next 50 years," Herrington
said. "Suppose there are three buildings on fire at one time - a library, an
engineering building and an office building. I'm going to have to tell this
group, 'I can only put out one fire, and two buildings are going to burn
down. Which one do you want me to save?' "

The policy group may also have to deal with issues such as when, and
possibly where, to resume classes.

If the university is closed for more than a week or two, "we've
essentially lost that academic quarter," Herrington said. "They'll have to
decide if the whole place has to close down completely for a long time.

"They'll have to begin negotiating with FEMA and other government agencies
right away. They may have to arrange for classes to be taught at some
facility or facilities miles away. They could have to find housing for
thousands of displaced students. They'll be trying to get the word out to
parents and other concerned people all over the world."

And, they won't have the usual luxury of time and consensus- building
through committee meetings and task forces and public input.

"They'll have to decide it that minute, and they'll have to make the right
decisions," Herrington said. "It's going to be an extremely tough job."

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