Despite hype, will Spurs-OKC be a ratings dud?

Most basketball aficionados realize that the upcoming San Antonio-Oklahoma City Western Conference Finals could be one for the ages.

The talented young Thunder are looking to qualify for their first NBA Finals. To get there, they will have to beat the veteran Spurs, who have claimed four NBA titles in the last 14 seasons and are are looking to add one for the thumb as the league’s hottest team.

An NBA observer as dispassionate at the Boston Globe’s Bob Ryan – O.K., he has to be considered passionate considering his rants — has already gone on record as saying how special he considers this Spurs team. Ryan recently called them his favorite NBA team to watch since the “Showtime” Los Angeles Lakers claimed the 1987 title with Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

But even with all of that excitement, some observers have predicted that TNT could be heading for a ratings disaster when the Western Conference Finals begins Sunday night.

Former Chicago Tribune sports/media critic Ed Sherman, who is about as good as it gets in analyzing these kinds of things, makes a valid point.

If the NBA is as hot as we are to believe, Sherman writes that this series should do well. After all, what should highlight the strength and balance of David Stern’s league better than two intriguing teams battling for a shot at the NBA Finals? The fact they represent small markets should only buttress Stern’s claims that the league is healthy and viable after the lockout.

“As far as star power, San Antonio, with four NBA titles, continues to mysteriously fly under the radar,” Sherman wrote. “Tim Duncan easily is the most under hyped superstar in the history of basketball. It seems the only time he and the Spurs get on national TV is if they are playing Kobe or Jeremy Lin.”

And he also mentions the presence of budding superstars like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook as further proof that this series should be one of the most eagerly anticipated in years.

“In fact, when it comes to star power, the biggest in this series will be Kevin Durant,” Sherman wrote. “We love the latest big thing, and there will be interest to see if he, Russell Westbrook and the Thunder can take it to the next level.”

Sherman astutely points out that the NFL has been immune to worries about small markets for their biggest games. There has been no appreciable dropoff when teams like the New Orleans Saints or Pittsburgh Steelers have played in the Super Bowl.

It will be interesting if the NBA can develop more along the lines of that model. Namely, when will better teams drive ratings rather than the league’s most-hyped stars?