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Revised traffic figures prompt questions about N.C. 109 bypass

Economy may be linked to traffic drop

Standing next to homes on Heatherwood Drive, Meadowlands Homeowners Association president Mike Campbell shows where the new, proposed N.C. Highway 109 widening is expected to cut through the neighborhood.

Published: Friday, September 6, 2013 at 4:42 p.m.

Last Modified: Friday, September 6, 2013 at 4:42 p.m.

Transportation officials are taking a second look at parts of a proposed N.C. Highway 109 bypass in northeastern Davidson County after updated traffic forecasts found less drivers may be using the road than first expected.

Facts

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Find out the latest information and documents related to the proposed N.C. Highway 109 bypass www.ncdot.gov/projects/nc109improvements.

The North Carolina Department of Transportation plans to widen and build new portions of the highway from Friendship Ledford Road north of Thomasville to Interstate 40 in southern Forsyth County.

The bypass, which is the final part of an overarching N.C. 109 improvement project that spans back to the 1980s, calls for a 10-mile, four-lane highway with a median. However, new traffic forecasts have officials questioning if that's the best plan.

The revised figures forecast future daily traffic estimates on existing N.C. 109 that were up to 50 percent less than initial predictions completed by DOT in the mid-2000s, according to a copy of the revised forecast. The largest differences in the forecast, which predicted future traffic estimates at various intersections along the road, occurred toward the most southern part of the highway near Thomasville.

DOT Division 9 Engineer Pat Ivey said the updated forecasts have produced questions about the scope of the planned road — inquiries that need to be answered before moving forward.

"We want to make sure we are making the right decision," Ivey said, adding that options include moving forward as planned or downsizing the project.

"Do we go down from a four-lane road to a two-lane road, with the possibility of widening it in the future?" Ivey said. "What is it that we need to move forward with?"

Ivey said a committee of DOT workers, regional planners and transportation officials are evaluating the accuracy and significance of the updated numbers.

DOT officials say the proposed project would improve traffic flows and levels of service on the highway, which is the main thoroughfare for citizens traveling north or south in eastern Davidson County.

Some two-lane sections of the highway had the lowest level of service in 2008, according to a draft of the DOT's environmental impact statement. Additionally, while the original traffic forecast projected all segments of N.C. 109 to be over-capacity by 2035, it's unclear how the updated figures change those initial predictions.

"If I look at the newest forecast, I have trouble justifying the project, and if I look at the old forecast, I don't have a problem at all," said David Hyder, director of the High Point Metropolitan Planning Organization that prioritizes and makes recommendations on long-term projects.

The N.C. 109 project has been as high as the No. 2 project on the MPO's priority list in recent years. In the next few months, Hyder said the MPO will continue to consider the need of the project and re-evaluate its priority after the final traffic forecast is sorted out.

Right-of-way acquisition for the project is not scheduled until 2020, and no money has been allocated for construction, according to DOT documents. The total price tag is estimated to be about $128.8 million.

Traffic linked to economy?

The initial traffic forecast was completed largely before the Great Recession, and local officials say the downturn in the economy may be linked to the revised figures.

Manufacturing plants closed in Thomasville, and major changes occurred in the tobacco and medical industries in Winston-Salem, which could have reduced some traffic to both areas, said Davidson County Planning Director Guy Cornman.

"We realize what happened in the area in terms of the economy, and that's why we are thinking the numbers have slowed or dropped," Cornman said. "But we're thinking once the economy improves again, the numbers will pick back up."

Davidson County officials have been proponents of the N.C. 109 improvements throughout the past three decades. Most of the county's growth in recent years has occurred in the areas surrounding the northern portion of the highway, and Cornman said that's where most growth will continue to take place.

From 2000 to 2010, the Abbotts Creek township adjacent to N.C. 109 grew by 68 percent, or 5,180 people. Other growth near the highway took place after the construction of new residential communities, such as the Meadowlands golf community and the Laurel Oak Ranch subdivision toward High Point.

"It may be a slow pace of growth in the future, but it will be a steady pace," Cornman said.

Officials have also pushed for the changes to improve safety on the existing highway.

From February 2006 to January 2009, the total crash rate for N.C. 109 within the project area was about 36 percent higher than similar routes in North Carolina, according to DOT data. The rate also exceeded the statewide critical crash rate by about 20 percent.

"Early on, safety was a very big driver," said City of Thomasville engineer Bryan Fulbright, who said he still thinks the road justifies a four-lane, divided highway. "People need to get from 'Point A' to 'Point B,' and they not only need to do it safely, but they need to do it quickly."

'We're stuck'

If the new traffic projections push officials to downsize or delay the new road, the DOT does not plan on changing its preferred route. The bypass, which was selected from a total of six alternatives in 2011, starts out slightly east of the existing highway north of Friendship Ledford Road, then cuts back west of the road and northward until merging again with the existing highway near Interstate 40, according to DOT maps.

Ivey said he hopes to have the traffic forecast questions answered by the end of the year, in order to finish the final environmental impact statement that will direct the future of the project.

In the meantime, citizens in the path of the bypass will wait. They'll wait on a "final yes or no," and they'll also wait to see if their home will be taken.

The bypass could cause the relocation of 97 residential structures and five businesses, according to DOT data.

The planned road runs through an entire street in the Meadowlands community. About a dozen homes, all built in the late 2000s, would be impacted, said Mike Campbell, president of the Meadowlands Homeowners Association.

Campbell said residents are not opposed to progress, but they don't see the need for a road this elaborate.

"In essence, we're stuck," Campbell said, adding that residents can't sell property because of the impending project and can't afford to move without receiving the costs associated with right-of-way acquisition. "For us, it's just not fair."

"There are a lot of folks that aren't happy about it, and that would have been the case regardless of whichever option we chose. That's the business we are in," Ivey said. "Our job is to pick the best alternative for the overall good of the public, and we believe we have done that."

For more information on the project, go to www.ncdot.gov/projects/nc109improvements.

Nash Dunn can be reached at 249-3981, ext. 227, or at nash.dunn@the-dispatch.com. Follow Nash on Twitter: @LexDispatchNash

<p>Transportation officials are taking a second look at parts of a proposed N.C. Highway 109 bypass in northeastern Davidson County after updated traffic forecasts found less drivers may be using the road than first expected.</p><p>The North Carolina Department of Transportation plans to widen and build new portions of the highway from Friendship Ledford Road north of Thomasville to Interstate 40 in southern Forsyth County.</p><p>The bypass, which is the final part of an overarching N.C. 109 improvement project that spans back to the 1980s, calls for a 10-mile, four-lane highway with a median. However, new traffic forecasts have officials questioning if that's the best plan.</p><p>The revised figures forecast future daily traffic estimates on existing N.C. 109 that were up to 50 percent less than initial predictions completed by DOT in the mid-2000s, according to a copy of the revised forecast. The largest differences in the forecast, which predicted future traffic estimates at various intersections along the road, occurred toward the most southern part of the highway near Thomasville.</p><p>DOT Division 9 Engineer Pat Ivey said the updated forecasts have produced questions about the scope of the planned road — inquiries that need to be answered before moving forward.</p><p>"We want to make sure we are making the right decision," Ivey said, adding that options include moving forward as planned or downsizing the project. </p><p>"Do we go down from a four-lane road to a two-lane road, with the possibility of widening it in the future?" Ivey said. "What is it that we need to move forward with?"</p><p>Ivey said a committee of DOT workers, regional planners and transportation officials are evaluating the accuracy and significance of the updated numbers.</p><p>DOT officials say the proposed project would improve traffic flows and levels of service on the highway, which is the main thoroughfare for citizens traveling north or south in eastern Davidson County.</p><p>Some two-lane sections of the highway had the lowest level of service in 2008, according to a draft of the DOT's environmental impact statement. Additionally, while the original traffic forecast projected all segments of N.C. 109 to be over-capacity by 2035, it's unclear how the updated figures change those initial predictions.</p><p>"If I look at the newest forecast, I have trouble justifying the project, and if I look at the old forecast, I don't have a problem at all," said David Hyder, director of the High Point Metropolitan Planning Organization that prioritizes and makes recommendations on long-term projects.</p><p>The N.C. 109 project has been as high as the No. 2 project on the MPO's priority list in recent years. In the next few months, Hyder said the MPO will continue to consider the need of the project and re-evaluate its priority after the final traffic forecast is sorted out.</p><p>Right-of-way acquisition for the project is not scheduled until 2020, and no money has been allocated for construction, according to DOT documents. The total price tag is estimated to be about $128.8 million.</p><p><B>Traffic linked to economy?</B></p><p>The initial traffic forecast was completed largely before the Great Recession, and local officials say the downturn in the economy may be linked to the revised figures.</p><p>Manufacturing plants closed in Thomasville, and major changes occurred in the tobacco and medical industries in Winston-Salem, which could have reduced some traffic to both areas, said Davidson County Planning Director Guy Cornman.</p><p>"We realize what happened in the area in terms of the economy, and that's why we are thinking the numbers have slowed or dropped," Cornman said. "But we're thinking once the economy improves again, the numbers will pick back up."</p><p>Davidson County officials have been proponents of the N.C. 109 improvements throughout the past three decades. Most of the county's growth in recent years has occurred in the areas surrounding the northern portion of the highway, and Cornman said that's where most growth will continue to take place.</p><p>From 2000 to 2010, the Abbotts Creek township adjacent to N.C. 109 grew by 68 percent, or 5,180 people. Other growth near the highway took place after the construction of new residential communities, such as the Meadowlands golf community and the Laurel Oak Ranch subdivision toward High Point.</p><p>"It may be a slow pace of growth in the future, but it will be a steady pace," Cornman said.</p><p>Officials have also pushed for the changes to improve safety on the existing highway.</p><p>From February 2006 to January 2009, the total crash rate for N.C. 109 within the project area was about 36 percent higher than similar routes in North Carolina, according to DOT data. The rate also exceeded the statewide critical crash rate by about 20 percent.</p><p>"Early on, safety was a very big driver," said City of Thomasville engineer Bryan Fulbright, who said he still thinks the road justifies a four-lane, divided highway. "People need to get from 'Point A' to 'Point B,' and they not only need to do it safely, but they need to do it quickly."</p><p><B>'We're stuck'</B></p><p>If the new traffic projections push officials to downsize or delay the new road, the DOT does not plan on changing its preferred route. The bypass, which was selected from a total of six alternatives in 2011, starts out slightly east of the existing highway north of Friendship Ledford Road, then cuts back west of the road and northward until merging again with the existing highway near Interstate 40, according to DOT maps.</p><p>Ivey said he hopes to have the traffic forecast questions answered by the end of the year, in order to finish the final environmental impact statement that will direct the future of the project.</p><p>In the meantime, citizens in the path of the bypass will wait. They'll wait on a "final yes or no," and they'll also wait to see if their home will be taken.</p><p>The bypass could cause the relocation of 97 residential structures and five businesses, according to DOT data.</p><p>The planned road runs through an entire street in the Meadowlands community. About a dozen homes, all built in the late 2000s, would be impacted, said Mike Campbell, president of the Meadowlands Homeowners Association.</p><p>Campbell said residents are not opposed to progress, but they don't see the need for a road this elaborate.</p><p>"In essence, we're stuck," Campbell said, adding that residents can't sell property because of the impending project and can't afford to move without receiving the costs associated with right-of-way acquisition. "For us, it's just not fair."</p><p>DOT selected the particular bypass route after assessing a range of factors, including environmental and wetland impacts, farm land, federally protected species, utility conflicts and cost, among other issues, Ivey said.</p><p>"There are a lot of folks that aren't happy about it, and that would have been the case regardless of whichever option we chose. That's the business we are in," Ivey said. "Our job is to pick the best alternative for the overall good of the public, and we believe we have done that."</p><p>For more information on the project, go to www.ncdot.gov/projects/nc109improvements.</p><p>Nash Dunn can be reached at 249-3981, ext. 227, or at nash.dunn@the-dispatch.com. Follow Nash on Twitter: @LexDispatchNash</p>