Ep. 359: Campbell Harvey Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

There is a common problem in finance when it comes to evaluating investment managers’ performance: the factor or skill vs. luck. When a manager performs well over a number of years, it is not clear whether the success can be attributed to the manager’s skill and strategy, or random luck. And vice versa, when a manager performs badly, it can be difficult to pin-point whether it was due to lack of skill, or simply bad luck.

Another factor that is commonly misunderstood in finance is risk. Understanding the differences between risk, volatility, and skew is essential to developing a well-performing trading strategy.

Campbell Harvey studies these phenomena. He is a finance professor at Duke university, and research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research in Massachusetts. His research papers on these subjects have been published in many scientific journals.

In this episode, Campbell Harvey and Michael Covel discuss risk tolerance, evaluating trading strategies, Harry Markowitz’ classic paper on portfolio selection, and the importance of differentiating between volatility and skew.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Survivorship bias, and not being fooled by randomness

Why people with higher risk tolerance experience much higher upsides

Understanding process vs. outcome

The difference between volatility and skew

The importance of recognizing that asset returns are rarely “normally distributed”

When it is appropriate to apply a general framework, and when it is not

The Sharpe ratio – is it always relevant?

Harry Markowitz, Jim Simons, and Nassim Taleb

“These people that are taking a lot of risk, with enough luck, will rise to the top. The person that is risk-averse is stuck in the middle” – Campbell Harvey

Trend Following™, TurtleTrader®, TurtleTrader.com® are trademarks/service marks of Trend Following. Other trademarks and service marks appearing on the Trend Following network of sites may be owned by Trend Following or by other parties including third parties not affiliated with Trend Following.

Articles and information on the Trend Following™ network of sites may not be copied, reprinted, or redistributed without written permission from Michael Covel and or Trend Following (but written permission is easily and typically granted).

The purpose of this website is to encourage the free exchange of ideas across investments, risk, economics, psychology, human behavior, entrepreneurship and innovation. The entire contents of this website are based upon the opinions of Michael Covel, unless otherwise noted. Individual articles are based upon the opinions of the respective author, who may retain copyright as noted. The information on this website is intended as a sharing of knowledge and information from the research and experience of Michael Covel and his community.

Information contained herein is not designed to be used as an invitation for investment with any adviser profiled. All data on this site is direct from the CFTC, SEC, Yahoo Finance, Google and disclosure documents by managers mentioned herein. We assume all data to be accurate, but assume no responsibility for errors, omissions or clerical errors made by sources.

Trend Following™ markets and sells various investment research and investment information products. Readers are solely responsible for selection of stocks, currencies, options, commodities, futures contracts, strategies, and monitoring their brokerage accounts. Trend Following™, its subsidiaries, employees, and agents do not solicit or execute trades or give investment advice, and are not registered as brokers or advisors with any federal or state agency. Read our full disclaimer.

Watch Michael Covel's film now. "The only trend following documentary!"

LIKE OUR FREE CONTENT?Click here for the best that Trend Following™ has to offer...