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Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi speaks during a symbolic funeral ceremony of Major General Ali al-Lami, who commands the Iraqi Federal Police's Fourth Division, who was killed in Salahuddin, in Baghdad, Iraq October 23, 2019. REUTERS/Khalid al-Mousily/File Photo

The news on November 29 that Iraqi Prime
Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi will resign is unprecedented in post-2003 Iraq. Many
questions must be answered before his successor is appointed, and in the
meantime, we can expect unrest to continue.

The immediate concern will be
constitutional. The Iraqi constitution addresses the replacement of a prime
minister following his removal from office by a parliamentary vote of
no-confidence and in the case of vacancy for any reason, but it is silent on
resignation, other than a scenario related to the dissolution of parliament and
the calling of a new election. If that occurs, the prime minister will be
“considered as having resigned and the government becomes a caretaker”
government until a new one is confirmed, according to Article 64. In the event
of parliamentary removal of the prime minister, the constitution allows the
government to remain in office to run the country for a maximum period of thirty
days until a new government is formed, according to Article 61. If the office
of prime minister is vacated for any other reason, the president will serve as
prime minister until a new government is formed, and he must designate a new
prime minister within fifteen days, according to Article 81. It remains to be
seen which pathway will be used to replace Abdul-Mahdi, and the process may
require a ruling by the Supreme Court.

The other question that must be
addressed is the possible constitutional violation of October 2018 when President
Barham Salih appointed Abdul-Mahdi prime minister on the basis of parliamentary
consensus before the proper designation of the parliament’s largest bloc.
Article 76 of the constitution authorizes the president to nominate a prime
minister from the largest parliamentary bloc. However, no such bloc was
identified subsequent to Abdul-Mahdi’s nomination, leaving the parliament and
the presidency faced with more questions to answer in this contentious and
uncertain moment.

If the president nominates a prime
minister now without properly designating the largest bloc, he will be
challenged in court. If he follows the constitution literally, he will have some
time until the designation of the largest bloc is made; a care-taker government
can run affairs temporarily as mentioned earlier. However, if the Article 81
pathway is chosen, there will be only fifteen days to identify the largest bloc
and nominate a new prime minister.

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Aside from the complexity of this
situation, there is also the menace of foreign influence. Government formation
periods in Iraq have always attracted regional and other international powers to
converge in Baghdad and throw all their weight to tip the balance in favor of their
interests—or what each of them unilaterally deem to be Iraqi interests. Since
2003, Iraqis have consistently lost their first choice of prime minister and
have settled for an alternative who was viewed as a compromise by foreign
powers, and namely the United States and Iran. Despite the protesters’
vociferous rejections of foreign meddling in Iraq’s affairs, both in words and
in action, it is not realistic to expect that the coming government formation
process will be significantly different. In fact, there is perhaps more at
stake in the next government than all previous iterations and, therefore, its
formation will be accompanied by more intense pressure campaigns than ever
before.

The appointment
of a new government, with all the uncertainties that surround it, is only half
of the picture of what is happening in Iraq and what will shape its immediate
future. The other (and more important) half concerns the reaction of the
protesters who are the driving force behind this crisis.

The demands of
the Iraqi protesters—who represent the overwhelming
majority of the people’s views—include not merely the
overthrow of the government and the replacement of it with officials from the
same mistrusted political elite. The protesters’ slogans (“I want a homeland”
and “I am protesting to reclaim my rights”) go way beyond giving the political
system a facelift. Their demands span from employment and economic
opportunities to the overhaul of the political system and real reform that
addresses the corruption and political apportionment system (muhassassa)
which gives a few privileged political parties exclusive control over the
country.

The protesters also
envision a sovereign country free from foreign influence. Any government that
is not going to present a credible program to meet this wide range of demands combined
with the aptitude to implement it will not gain their approval and secure
stability and security, which are essential prerequisites for moving Iraq
forward.

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Atlantic Council experts react to the announcement of the Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi resigning. Abbas Kadhim is the Director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council. “In his address to the Iraqi people on October 31, President Barham Salih referred to Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s offer to resign if the two major parliamentary blocs […]

Waves of protests have hit Iraq this past October and November, calling for the resignation of the post-war government and sweeping changes. Last month alone, there have been reports of hundreds of protesters killed and thousands wounded by security forces in clashes across the country, from Tahrir Square in Baghdad to cities like Diwaniyah, Najaf, […]

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