Getting the Jump on the Weekend

May 19th, 2004

All of Hollywood is desperate for a big hit. Admissions are down nearly 3% from this time last year and we've yet to have a breakout hit in May. Hoping to change that is Shrek 2, which opens tonight in a near record 3737 theatres.

Making predictions for this film is a little more complicated than they first appear. You can't just compare it to the debut of the first film because that film started slowly. Ok, $42.3 million isn't particular slow, but it did grow the following weekend. Not only that, but original opened on Friday not Wednesday. Also a factor is the state of the movie industry this year. Poor attendance could result in a slowdown for all movies since the lack of an 'event movie' has caused the audiences' attention to wander elsewhere. Or the lack of competition could mean is Shrek 2 will draw in more fans because there's nothing else worth seeing.

Lastly, we have the reviews to deal with. Over on Rotten Tomatoes Shrek 2 is in the lead 92% positive to 88%. However, Metacritic has the situation reversed with Shrek well in the lead 86 to 69. What does this mean? Basically it means that while more critics are giving the film a positive review, they are not nearly as enthusiastic as last time. It's worth seeing, just not repeatedly.

After taking all available information into consideration, is Shrek 2 should take in $25 million tonight, $15 million tomorrow and $70 million over the weekend. If it earns just a little bit more than expected, it will break Finding Nemo's animation record. If it earns less than $20 / $10 / $50 million then the movie industry will officially be in panic mode.