NFL Week 16 Previews: AFC Games

New England is the 83 percent road favorite. Tom Brady is projected for a solid game with 240 passing yards and just a 50 percent chance of throwing an INT. The Patriots are heavy favorites because Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead are both averaging over 5 ypc. If Buffalo can intercept Brady at least once while holding the RBs to under 3.5 ypc the Bills improve to having a 50 percent chance. If Ryan Fitzpatrick has no INTs with at least 2 TD passes the Bills have a 40 percent chance and if Fred Jackson also adds 50+ rushing yards the Bills are 53 percent favorites.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Chargers are heavy 79 percent favorites on the road vs the Bengals. Philip Rivers has a simulation rating of 99 and is averaging 1.8 TDs vs just 0.7 INTs. Carson Palmer is averaging more INTs than TDs (1.1 to 0.9). If Palmer has no INTs and at least 1 TD the Bengals chances improve from 20 to 50 percent. Cedric Benson had a break-out game but the Chargers defense is holding him to just 3.5 ypc. If Benson can have another big game with 75+ yards and 1+ TDs the Bengals become the 59 percent favorite.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Colts are 54 percent road favorites winning by just a field goal per simulation. If Peyton Manning throws no more than 1 INT and Donald Brown has another good game with at least 4 ypc then the Colts are solid 66 percent favorites. The Raiders have a good chance thanks to solid rushing numbers. McFadden and Bush are both averaging 5 ypc and combining for over 110 yards. If McFadden has 75+ yards then the Raiders become the 64 percent favorite, but if then Colts contain him like they did Maurice Jones-Drew in Week 15 and McFadden has under 75 yards the Colts are the heavy 66 percent favorite.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs are 54 percent favorites thanks to another solid rushing performance with both Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones averaging 60 yards rushing. When they both have 60+ rushing yards the Chiefs are heavy 86 percent favorites, but if Tennessee holds them both under 75 yards the Chiefs only have a 40 percent chance. The Titans have a solid chance because Chris Johnson is averaging 5 ypc. If he has 100+ yards and 1+ TDs the Titans are 66 percent favorites, but if the Chiefs hold him under 100 rushing yards the Titans only have a 24 percent chance.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Ravens finally realized that Ray Rice is their best offensive player and with another 20+ touches the Ravens are 66 percent favorites. Joe Flacco is averaging just 208 passing yards but has a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio. If Flacco has 275 or more passing yards the Ravens chances drop from 66 to 58 percent because they are once again abandoning the run. Peyton Hillis had his break-out game vs the Ravens earlier this season. If Hillis averages over 5 ypc and has at least 1 rushing TD the Browns are the 53 percent favorite.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Houston is the 56 percent favorite with Arian Foster expected to bounce back from a poor game vs the Titans. Foster is averaging over 110 rushing yards per sim and 1 rushing TD. There is a 46 percent chance that he is held under 100 rushing yards and if he is the Texans chances drop to 34 percent. Tim Tebow is playing fairly well in simulations with a solid 84 passer rating and 20+ rushing yards. If Tebow rushes for a TD and passes for a TD again the Broncos are the 64 percent favorite. But if Tebow throws 1 or more INTs the Broncos only have a 31 percent chance of winning.