Tropical Storm Harvey

Tropical Storm Harvey hit the Texas on August 26. It’s the strongest storm in the US since 2004. It led to massive rain and flooding. Tropical Storm Harvey could lead to a drop in US refining capacity by 30%. It could also lead to a drop in crude oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico by 19% or 331,400 bpd (barrels per day). The recovery of US crude oil production and refining activity can take several weeks. Ports in Texas have shut down, which could also impact crude oil and product import and export activity.

Citigroup estimates gasoline production may drop more than 2 MMbpd due to the storm. Consequently, gasoline futures rose 2.7% to $1.71 per gallon on August 28—the highest level in four months. However, crude oil prices fell on August 28. For more analysis, read the previous part of this series.