The Pac-12, on the other hand, tried to have it all. They
wanted the money. They wanted the exposure. They got the former. They are
failing miserably on the latter.

Yet, the Pac-12 has no one to blame but itself. Or Larry
Scott.

There has been a developing narrative through the first half
of the 2013 season that the Pac-12 is now the second-best conference, if not
better than the SEC. It’s a compelling narrative and early non-conference wins,
including Oregon’s destruction of Tennessee, UCLA’s comeback over Nebraska and
Washington’s annihilation of Boise State, furthered it.

The conference had a good September. It is not having a good
October.

On October 12, the biggest upset – of the season, to that point
– took place when Utah beat Stanford. Few, if any, outside of the Pac-12
footprint were able to watch it because it was on the Pac-12 Network.

I live in Washington, D.C. I have the “sports geek” package.
There are times when there are 14 different FBS football games on my
television, from local sports channels to syndicated packages to national cable
channels to smaller outfits like CBS Sports Network. I get it all. I did not
get Utah/Stanford.

Do you know how frustrating that is as a football fan? There
was 1 game of interest going on – though I guess Michigan/Penn State going on
at the same was interesting in its own macabre way – and I couldn’t watch it. It’s
not good when your conference’s biggest game is played and only about 25% of
the country even has access to watch it, much less actually watch it.

Stanford was at the forefront of another Pac-12 scheduling
debacle that incredulously received the backing of the media – is Larry Scott
now the west coast version of Roger Goodell, with the media shoveling
all the shit he spews?

Fox wanted to air Stanford/UCLA – a huge, massive, top 15
showdown – on its fledgling Fox Sports 1 at 10pm ET.

On its face, this seemed like a win-win for all involved.
This would be the biggest college football game Fox Sports 1 would ever have
aired, even trumping Oregon/Washington, and likely drawing the biggest audience
in its short history. The game would have had zero competition – the only other
college football game on at 10pm Saturday night was Oregon State blowing out
Cal on ESPN2. In short, it was a perfect, exposure-grabbing opportunity.

With Fox not an option and Fox Sports 1 off the table, they
moved the game to a 3:30pm ET start with a split telecast on ABC/ESPN2. Half
of the United States got Stanford/UCLA – the conference’s biggest game so
far – on ESPN2. It went up against a near upset in the Ohio State game and a
back and forth thriller featuring Johnny Football, not to mention 6 other
nationally televised games.

Fewer people, BY FAR, watched Stanford/UCLA because of the
conference’s aversion to growing Fox Sports 1, which would help them in the future,
and to night games, which would help them right now.

The Pac-12 is miles behind the Big Ten and the SEC. They are
now risking falling behind the Big 12 and the ACC due to their own
incompetence. The Big 12 has shown no such aversion to Fox’s scheduling and has
been on TV far more. The ACC has not created its own network, leaving a lot
more games for ESPN to air.

The Pac-12, thanks exclusively to UCLA, USC and its control
of Los Angeles, will always be a major conference.

The Pac-12, thanks exclusively to poor leadership and a lack
of forward thinking, will always be an afterthought.

Picks to Date: 48-38-2
Best Bet: 2-6
Upset Special: 6-2

BYU (-7) over Boise
StateWhen do we admit Boise State is a very mediocre football team? If you’re a
Fresno State fan, you hope the answer is never – Fresno State is several spots
above Northern Illinois in the BCS Buster race based almost solely on a nice
bump from beating Boise State. Do they deserve it? Probably not. And Northern
Illinois is clearly being punished for its Orange Bowl loss. But that’s a story
for another day.

As for this game, BYU is simply a much, much better team –
especially at home. They blew out Texas. They blew out Georgia Tech. They beat
a previously undefeated Houston team on the road last week. Boise State has
beaten…who? The answer is nobody. And losing starting QB
Joe Southwick to a broken ankle doesn’t make things any better. This is a
legacy line for Boise State – and easy money for you.

IOWA (-4) over
NorthwesternNorthwestern is done. Everyone wanted to give Northwestern credit for their
game against Ohio State and the fact they kept it close. Well the opposite is
true – they blew that game. They should’ve won. They know it. The fans know it.
They didn’t. They promptly got smoked by Wisconsin and returned home to play
Minnesota in front of about 15,000
empty seats. The bandwagon fans are gone. The momentum has left. It’s not
pretty.

On the other hand, Iowa is feeling pretty good about themselves.
Unlike Northwestern, they played Ohio State tough, on the road, and Ohio State
played good! That’s the most remarkable thing about Iowa’s effort – Ohio State
played a good game and wasn’t able to put Iowa away until late. That’s a
momentum-builder. The home crowd will be encouraged and Kinnick Stadium, unlike
Ryan Field, will be filled to capacity.

Vanderbilt (+18) over
TEXAS A&M *Upset Special*
I wrote in July that Texas A&M would lose at least 3 games this year –
ignore the rest of these
“bold” college football predictions – and it looks like I’ll be right.
Maybe as soon as Saturday.

One of the odd things about preseason rankings in college
football is how we sometimes obscure good losses, or losses that aren’t as bad
as they seem. In early October, Missouri came to Nashville and absolutely
rocked the shit out of Vanderbilt. For many, it just proved that Vanderbilt
stunk. For the enlightened (not me, of course), it just proved that Missouri
was really, really good.

I think Vanderbilt may still be poised to have the breakout
season that was predicted for them in the summer and a win
over Johnny Football on the road would be a part of that. A&M, on the
other hand, is about to enter free-fall mode, aka what Texas A&M has
historically been. The injury to Johnny Football adds an element of worry and
the defense is the football equivalent of a dumpster fire.

Tennessee (+28) over
ALABAMAOregon’s win over Tennessee is looking better by the week. And it’s going
to look really, really good when they give Alabama a game for a half this week.
I’m thinking we get a 10-10 or 14-10 halftime score, with Alabama pulling away
late for a comfortable 38-14 win that still upsets the locals and lets me notch
this up as a victory.

Only potential issue? Kirk Herbstreit on SportsCenter this
morning putting Alabama on Upset Alert. I don’t think an ESPN analyst has
correctly predicted a true Upset in about 10 years – they always go with the
obvious upsets, which never pan out, or the absurd ones, which gain attention
but never pan out. This is both, somehow. But the spread is too high.

OKLAHOMA (-7) over
Texas Tech *Best Bet*Texas Tech has beaten a grand total of….0 good teams. That’s not even an exaggeration, just look
at the schedule. They are 4-0 in the Big 12. The teams they’ve defeated are
2-12 in conference play or 2-8 even if you exclude the Texas Tech wins. They
have beaten up on horrible, horrible teams. But they haven’t even beaten them
up! They’ve been squeaking by the likes of Iowa State and West Virginia. Texas
Tech is a very, very average football team.

Now, Oklahoma might be too but I cannot imagine a scenario in
which Oklahoma, with its back against the wall in the Big 12 race, does not
beat an average team by less than a touchdown at home. I just don’t see it.
Oklahoma has too much talent. They may lose to Baylor by 70. But they will beat
Texas Tech.

Utah (+6.5) over USCDid you watch the USC/Notre Dame game last week? I did, so if you did, I
feel your pain. It was probably the worst game in the history of that rivalry.
Especially in the second half after Tommy Rees got hurt and Brian Kelly didn’t
trust his backup QB to throw a forward pass. And you know why he didn’t? Because
he knew USC, sans Marqise Lee, was incapable of scoring. Lee is going to give
it a go this week. It doesn’t matter.

Here’s the bottom line: USC is a bad football team. Utah is
a decent football team that dealt with an understandable letdown against
Arizona last week after beating Stanford. There is never a letdown for a team
like Utah going to play a program like USC, especially after a heartbreaking
loss in 2011 and a sobering one in 2012.

OREGON (-23) over
Ucla23 points is a lot for a battle between Top 15 teams. But I am not going
against Oregon. Read
this article for my reasons why. Oregon has only failed to cover a spread
once, and that was last week against Washington State despite putting up 62 –
that’s what happens when the spread is 40.

Texas (+2) over TCUTCU is the opposite of Oregon – they suck yet continue to get a ridiculous
amount of love from Vegas in their spreads. This is why it fascinates me that
sane people – or not so sane people like sportswriters – think that bookies and
linemakers would be good in selecting teams for the college football playoffs.
The linemakers are playing off of perception, not actual results. The
perception with TCU, like Boise State, is that they SHOULD be good. But they
are not. They are terrible.

As with Texas, the perception around Texas is that they
SHOULD be bad. They got destroyed by BYU and humbled by Ole Miss. They probably
deserved to lose to Iowa State. But they just whomped on Oklahoma and Mack
Brown, bless his heart, has the team believing. For all the negativity,
especially after the Iowa State win, Brown closed ranks. He focused on the
positives of the win. He focused on the still attainable Big 12 championship
and Fiesta Bowl goals. Texas has momentum. They won’t squander it here.

South Carolina (+2.5)
over MISSOURIAt some point, the dream season has to end, right? That’s my angle for this
game – and boy, aren’t you glad you read 2,000 words for THAT insight. I’ve
picked against Missouri the last two weeks and lost the last two weeks badly.
Why not go for the hat trick, eh?

OHIO STATE (-14.5)
over Penn StateRemember above when I mentioned the curse of Kirk Herbstreit putting teams
on upset alert? Well, Kirk did the same for Ohio State. Considering Ohio State
just struggled with Iowa, I foresee a strong effort from the Buckeyes in
primetime. Considering Penn State is coming off of a massive victory over
Michigan at home, I foresee a terrible letdown for the Nittany Lions in
primetime.

Give the points, thank me later.

OREGON STATE (+3.5)
over StanfordMy best bet for the year is 2-6. Both times, the winning pick was Oregon
State, first over Utah and then last week over Cal. I’d love to do it again but
Vegas has caught up to me, and the line at Stanford is only a field goal. Sad
face.

Here’s something I bet you didn’t know about Stanford – they’re
not very good. Also, David Shaw doesn’t trust his quarterback. The Ted
Cruz-style of conservative offense last week was depressing as Shaw put
Stanford into clock-killing mode with 14 minutes left to go in the game. If
UCLA possessed the ability
to keep Brett Hundley upright, UCLA would’ve won the game. They did not.

Shaw’s conservative game plan almost – and maybe should’ve –
cost him against Washington. He won’t get a chance to submarine his team’s
chances this week. They’ll be playing catch up.

10 comments:

Your OU vs TTU pick is idiotic. Maybe you havent actually watched any of the games featuring OU or TTU. I mean, OU struggled with Kansas and TTU may not have blown out the teams but they look considerably better than everyone they have played. Also, Amaro will make it quite difficult for OU.

You sort of prove my point by saying Texas Tech has look better than who they've played...they've played terrible teams. And I disagree that they've looked "considerably better." They should've lost the TCU game. And they looked miserable last week against West Virginia.

your point is not proven look at the ou kansas game where ou won 34-19 where tech beat kansas 54-16 and if you wouldve watched those 2 games you would see how average ou looks and how "considerably better" ttu looks

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no one in texas thinks texas SHOULD be bad... all of the ut fans think texas is good... however they are average just like the rest of the big 12 teams. ou isnt that good either, they didnt blow kansas away, and iowa state is better than their record indicates, osu cant move the ball which is the same problem tcu has. and well k state just isnt that good either. baylor and tech seem to be the only teams that can score points and find ways to win games... you probably havent even watched any big 12 games besides highlights on sports center.. your thoughts about big 12 football is pure garbage