FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup forecasting model uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) — a system that combines game- and player-based ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate odds of each country’s performance during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations and will be updated at the end of each match.Read about our model »

Ritchie King is a visual journalist and science reporter for FiveThirtyEight. @RitchieSKing