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Global aims on climate 'off target'

Tom Arup

Annual emmissions are already about 14 per cent higher than the 44 billion tonnes that can be emitted in 2020 for the world to have hit its minimum warming target. Photo: Paul Jones

A MASSIVE gap exists between pledges by nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and the cuts needed to limit climate change to safe levels, the world's lead environmental agency has warned.

In a report released just days before the next round of international climate talks in Doha, the UN Environment Program says countries must rapidly lift efforts to cut emissions if global warming is to be kept to 2 degrees - the scientifically recognised safe level.

The UN's Emissions Gap Report finds annual emissions are already about 14 per cent higher than the 44 billion tonnes that can be emitted in 2020 for the world to have a good chance of hitting the 2-degree target and are continuing to rise.

Australia has pledged to cut its emissions by between 5 per cent and 25 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020, depending on a new strong global treaty on climate change. Other countries have also put forward minimum and conditional higher targets.

The report - the result of work by 55 scientists across 20 nations - says even if all countries accept the top end of these target ranges and adopt tough rules on how emissions are accounted, the world will still be emitting 8 billion tonnes more than it should in 2020.

If only the lowest targets are accepted, and lenient emissions accounting rules are used, the world will be emitting 13 billion tonnes more than it should at the end of the decade.

The emissions gap is several billion tonnes more than previous UN estimates, due in part to increased economic growth projections for large developing countries such as China and ''double counting'' of emission offset projects.

If the 2020 cuts are not met, then meeting the 2-degree target in the long term is significantly reduced. If it is to be met, the cost increases.

The report finds that technically the 2020 gap can still be closed. It says there are about 17 billion tonnes of emissions savings in the buildings, energy, forestry and transport areas that can be adopted on a large scale.

The UN also says there should be minimal use of surplus carbon credits carried over by nations from the first stage of the Kyoto Protocol to meet future emission targets.

Australia has made the ability to carry over its surplus, or unused, credits a condition of its support for a Kyoto treaty second stage at the Doha talks.

WWF spokesman Will McGoldrick said the report underlined the urgent need for all countries to to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

''Among developed countries Australia has the most to gain from a more ambitious global response to climate change, and the most to lose if countries fail to see the writing on the wall. It is incumbent on us as a nation to be willing to do our fair share globally,'' he said.

The UN's report comes after the World Bank warned the world was on track to warm by 4 degrees within the century.