Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Open Briefing. This month: the attack on tourists in Port El Kantaoui highlights threat of terrorism and organised crime in Tunisia; organised environmental crime continues to threaten the Amazon region; people smuggling and human trafficking through Bulgaria and Romania is likely to increase; and more. Read more

I am delighted to let you know that we have now raised £13,070 towards our fundraising target of £14,000! It has been truly heartwarming to learn just how valued Open Briefing is. But we now have just 19 days to raise the remaining £930 and secure Open Briefing’s future. So if you haven’t done so already, please consider making a donation to help us continue our vital work to promote alternatives to armed conflict and protect human rights. Read more

We have raised just under £7,000 in only two weeks after we launched an urgent appeal to raise the £14,000 we need to keep the doors open at Open Briefing and implement a new fundraising programme. But we still need your support. Please consider making a donation to help us continue our work to promote alternatives to armed conflict and protect human rights. Read more

Russian forces and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have significant advantages over Ukrainian forces in the area of electronic warfare. Russian forces are effectively able to nullify the Ukrainian communications and GPS signals in the regions they are deployed to. The advantages the Russians are enjoying in this area are directly contributing to the losses suffered by the Ukrainian armed forces. Western supporters of Kiev might consider supplying the Ukrainians with defensive capabilities, including electronic countermeasures. Read more

In this journal article for Intelligence and National Security, Open Briefing analyst Kevjn Lim examines the intersection of Big Data and strategic intelligence from a conceptual viewpoint. It argues that Big Data analytics is best used to discern long-term developments, generate intelligence hypotheses, and adduce refuting facts. The article also examines the use of Big Data via social media. It concludes that Big Data should continue to complement traditional subject-matter expertise, supported by game theory, as part of a tripartite analytical framework for strategic intelligence consisting of ‘subtext’, ‘context’ and ‘metatext’. Read more

In addition to our regular briefings and articles, Open Briefing issues occasional press releases to mark particularly newsworthy publications. To receive future press releases by email, journalists can now sign up to our new press list. Read more

Open Briefing is the world’s first civil society intelligence agency. We are a unique nonprofit social enterprise providing groundbreaking intelligence and research services to aid agencies, human rights groups, civil society organisations and concerned citizens. We are an international collaboration of intelligence, military, law enforcement and government professionals striving to make a difference. We are challenging the status quo. We are your intelligence agency. But we need your help. Read more

China views Iran as a central element in its much-touted Silk Road Economic Belt, which aims to extend Beijing’s influence overland through Central Asia to the Persian Gulf and Europe. This article for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Open Briefing analyst Kevjn Lim discusses Iran’s importance to China, including the geostrategic Iran plays as China’s most convenient non-Russian access route to open waters and the only east-west/north-south intersection for Central Asian trade. Read more

In this journal article for Comparative Strategy, Open Briefing analyst Kevjn Lim reviews national security decision-making in the Iranian context by focusing on institutions, formal process and individuals. He specifically examines the Supreme National Security Council, which formalises and embodies the decision-making process, as well as the Revolutionary Guards, which epitomise both the influence of institutions as well as the centrality of the agent-individual. Read more

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Open Briefing. This month: the Australian Crime Commission has highlighted the links between terrorism and organised crime; the World Health Organisation has called for an end to the global illicit tobacco trade; the Criminal Justice Inspectorate of Northern Ireland has reported on how organised crime groups are becoming increasingly involved with ‘waste crime’; and more. Read more

The United States has led the way in developing a new way of conceptualising and executing war. With the rise of austerity in Europe, other Western states have adopted part or all of this ‘remote-control warfare’ approach. However, the assessment of recent trends contained in this report makes it increasingly clear that remote-control warfare has its limits. As such, this report makes 31 specific recommendations to the British government. Read more

Open Briefing has today published a new report outlining 31 recommendations for the British government regarding remote-control warfare. What is ultimately needed is a comprehensive rethink of defence and security strategy and a move away from remote-control warfare towards more enduring, accountable and effective responses to today’s multiple security threats. The recommendations contained in this report would enable the government to to mitigate some of the pitfalls of the current strategy. Read more

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Open Briefing. This month: fighters from the Caribbean region are travelling to fight with extremists in Syria and Iraq; how law enforcement agencies must develop an understanding of the business structures of organised criminal gangs if such organisations are to be effectively undermined; political corruption and money laundering in Nigeria; and more. Read more

Political and security risk updates from Open Briefing and Bradburys Global Risk Partners. This month: increasing pressure from United States risks China hastening land reclamation projects to cement territorial claims in South China Sea; Hungary’s far-right party on the rise; Syrian rebels make significant gains in government territory but Islamic State poses looming threat; and more. Read more

Monthly briefing from the Open Briefing intelligence unit on developments in remote-control warfare. This month: US special operations forces withdraw from Yemen, severely limiting US counter-terrorism campaign; advocacy groups seek halt to autonomous military vehicles and weapons; China’s cyber operations acknowledged in influential People’s Liberation Army publication; and more. Read more

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Dr Mary Young. This month includes the task force the Australian government has launched to combat the crystal meth epidemic in the country, how El Salvador is struggling to cope with the collapse of the truce between the MS-13 and Calle 18 gangs, discussion of transnational organised crime by leaders at the US-CARICOM summit in Jamaica, and more. Read more

Political and security risk updates from Open Briefing and Bradburys Global Risk Partners. This month: summit of the Americas will test US relations with Cuba and Venezuela; relations between China and Myanmar sour as conflict with Kokang rebels continues; Iran and P5+1 reach outline agreement on Tehran’s controversial nuclear programme; and more. Read more

Open Briefing attended the Egyptian government’s recent high-level economic conference. The Egypt Economic Development Conference was designed to support President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi’s intention to strengthen Egypt’s troubled economy. It generated clear optimism, but caution and scepticism prevail among many Western diplomats in the aftermath of the conference. Read more

Open Briefing senior analyst Scott Hickie was recently interviewed for the International Affairs Forum, published by the Center for International Relations in Washington DC. In the interview, Scott discusses some of the findings of our July 2013 report into corruption within the pharmaceutical supply chain to the developing world. Read more

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Dr Mary Young. This month’s spotlight on Polar regions highlights how transnational organised crime gangs are exploiting the Arctic’s vast uninhabited areas and lack of dedicated police officers and criminal intelligence officers for human, drug and weapons trafficking and other illegal activities. It also discusses the US Coast Guard’s evolving efforts to tackle such crimes in the Arctic. Read more

Mali’s rapid descent into instability from what seemed a promising democratic trajectory has been the cover story of African politics since a military coup there disrupted constitutional rule in early 2012.

Soon thereafter, the northern half of the country fell under the control of Islamic militants. This seemingly abrupt turnabout was, in fact, the outcome of a steady erosion of state institutions over a period of years by what was an increasingly corrupt, though democratically elected, regime. Among other allegations, senior members of the government and military have been linked to the growing flow of cocaine transiting the region en-route to Europe. All the while, basic government services, including training and equipping a capable, professional military were neglected.

While few other contexts can compare with Mali’s dramatic collapse, the pattern of African democratisers going off-track and lapsing into autocratic tendencies has grown increasingly familiar. Kenya, Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi and South Sudan all fit this pattern in recent years. This may take the form of elected leaders weakening nascent checks on executive power be they term limits, the autonomy of electoral commissions, judicial independence, or an assertive parliament. As a result, the norm of big-man rule persists, even under the guise of democracy. With the withering of relatively more independent institutions, corruption and abuses of power soar.

In fact, democratic backsliding is common. In Africa, 65 percent of all countries that start down the democratic path experience at least one episode of regression. Such backtracking should not be surprising. Establishing a more participatory, rules-based political system is threatening to those who have benefitted from the privileges of exclusivity and the patronage benefits this affords. This holds true for leaders of young democratisers that may have previously championed reforms but have since grown accustomed to the privileges of power.

Genuine democratisation, therefore, requires creating robust mechanisms of shared power. This includes an independent legislature, an autonomous judiciary, a merit-based civil service, apolitical access to credit and licenses for businesses and a professional military, among other institutions. Leaders that are subject to such structures of accountability are less able to enrich themselves through public office, use the military as a private protection force, disregard basic needs of the majority, or extra-legally extend their time in power.

Creating such institutions is possible but it takes time – generally at least a decade, often longer. Not only must new institutions be created but entrenched exploitative norms and practices must be undone. The burden for maintaining the momentum for reform until state institutions of accountability can become rooted, therefore, falls to civil society and the media. These are the groups that can raise awareness and mobilise support for more transparent, effective and responsive government.

Fortunately, democratisation experiences are often highly resilient. While backsliding may be common, in two-thirds of these cases there is a resumption of democratic progress within three years. In other words, the emergence of democratic norms is often a back-and-forth process.

The growing accessibility of mobile phones and social media in Africa has provided powerful new tools to help civil society groups in these efforts to inform and connect citizens. As citizens become engaged, democracy’s inherent self-correcting capacities gain traction. Political leaders face stronger incentives to be responsive to citizen priorities. The airing of independent analysis widens policy options and hastens course adjustments. A means for systemically replacing political leaders brings fresh ideas and reduces institutional atrophy.

Africa’s democratic progress, then, depends on sufficient space for civil society actors, independent media, bloggers and others to foster cross-societal communication and engagement. It is this very potential, however, that makes these actors prime targets for intimidation, imprisonment and violence by state authorities threatened by greater public scrutiny. Libel and defamation laws are used to stifle dissent. Access to the Internet is restricted. Fifteen journalists were murdered in Africa in 2012. Few of these cases were even investigated. More than 300 African journalists are living in exile.

Strengthening protections for journalists and civil society leaders is vital to advancing democracy in Africa. Violence against these actors is not an ordinary crime against a single individual. Rather, it inflicts an enormous cost for the entire society by the loss of transparency, oversight and awareness of the population. It also limits the information available to the international community to constructively engage these regimes. Without independent information, the regime’s narrative dominates interpretations of events.

Since unaccountable governments have little incentive to lead the effort of strengthening legal protections for violence against journalists, regional African courts such as the African Court on Human and People’s Rights should take on an increasingly assertive role in hearing cases of violence against journalists that cannot receive an impartial hearing in the domestic courts. The UN Special Rapporteur on the Promotion and Protection of the Right to Freedom of Opinion and Expression should also be called in to investigate cases where journalists and civil society actors are unable to play their roles. In so doing, an impartial assessment of the space for media freedoms can be compiled. Regimes that fail to meet acceptable thresholds of press and speech freedoms should be denied international assistance. Without domestic watchdog groups and independent media, misuse of these monies escalates dramatically – placing donors in the position of inadvertently propping up the big-man syndrome in Africa.

International actors need to be more sophisticated in their support of Africa’s democratisers. There were warning signs in Mali – but these were mostly ignored. The essential measure of progress must be the strength of institutions of shared power – those who dismantle these institutions, even if fairly elected, must be called out and sanctioned. In effect, they are simply executing a coup in a more elegant manner.

All the publications on our website are made available to you
free of charge. However, if this briefing has been useful, please consider making a £2/$2/€2 donation towards our work to promote alternatives to armed conflict and protect human rights.