These maps and data are very interesting. But why are there such differents in fertility rates between regions and countries? What's the cause of these differents figures?

Regional differences within countries have different reasons.

They could be ethnic (Some ethnic groups have a higher or lower fertility) eg.: Scots lower than English, Corsicans lower than French, South Tyrolians higher than Italians, Kurds higher than Turkish and so on.
They could be religious, eg: Protestants higher than Catholics or Orthodox (in Europe. Notice the Netherlands, the north is more Protestant and has a higher fertility versus the catholic south), Religious people in general have higher fertility rates than atheists.
Urban-Rural differences: paris 1.6 but it's su´burbs more like 2.1.
Conservative - Liberal differences: The only county in Germany on Brisavoines map that is green has a very high share of people voting for the CDU, the conservative party in germany. Cities have a high share of people voting for left or liberal parties. Their fertility rate in germany is lower.

The French and German statistical offices have published their first 2009 birth estimates. In 2009 there were 821,000 births in France, which is near the post-baby boom record highs of 2006 and 2008. Apparently the economic crisis has not affected the French natality yet, despite what one could have expected. In Germany, on the other hand, 2009 established a new record of low births, beating the previous record low of 2006. In 2009 there were between 645,000 and 660,000 births in Germany.

The total fertility rate in France in 2009 was 1.99. The 2009 total fertility rate of Germany hasn't been published yet but should be slightly below 1.4.

The trend is now visible over the whole first decade of the 21st century. In the 10 years from 2000 to 2009, the total numbers of births registered were:
- France: 8,100,072 births
- Germany: between 7,004,000 and 7,019,000 births

Thanks for the data. It's quite interesting to see that the French population is growing with a healthy birthrate, while the German population is declining. I believe the German population has already dropped below the 82 million.

I believe the German population has already dropped below the 82 million.

According to the German statistical office, on Dec. 31, 2009 the German population was between 81.7 and 81.8 million people. In 2009 there was an excess of deaths over births that was between 180,000 and 190,000. Net migration was also negative, between -20,000 and -70,000. So in total Germany lost between 200,000 and 260,000 inhabitants in 2009.

Meanwhile in 2009 the French population increased by 356,000 people (excess of births over deaths of 284,000 plus a net migration of +72,000), with the population of France reaching 65.45 million on Jan. 1, 2010. In other words in 2009 the population discrepancy between France and Germany was reduced by something between 556,000 and 616,000 people. If the gap is reduced every year by the same amount of people, it would take 28 years for France and Germany to have the same population.

Germany may change, with their very prominent Minister of Families offering new child care and work allowances.

The Minister of Family Affairs you're thinking of, Ursula von der Leyen, left the ministry last November and was replaced by Kristina Köhler, who incidently has no children, which is odd for a minister in charge of familly affairs.

The policies launched by Ursula von der Leyen were costly and they have apparently had no effects (there was a small bump of births in 2007 and 2008, then the number of births declined again in 2009), so I'm not sure they will keep giving money to parents (Elterngeld) if it doesn't manage to increase the number of births.

The truth is, the low birth rate in Germany is largely due to social and cultural factors, and has probably little to do with financial factors, so giving money to parents proved a bit useless. Furthermore, as the last generations of women born during the baby boom "retire" from procreative life, the number of women able to give birth will decrease a lot, and so the number of births should decrease still further. The baby boom in Germany ended in 1971, so the youngest women from the baby boom are now 38 y/o.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

Or perhaps growth in France will slow, as the population continues to urbanize and thus assume urban, small-family characteristics.

France is already a highly urbanized country. If anything, people are now moving BACK to the countryside, in a phenomenon of so-called "rurbanization" (people leaving the urban areas and moving to the rural commuter belts surrounding the urban areas, where they have more space). This phenomenon of rurbanization is of course less present in very dense coutries like England and Germany were there is less rural space left around the cities, but in France there are huge empty rural areas around all the cities where people can buy cheap land.

That being said, population growth in France should indeed decline in the future, for two reasons: a- women born during the baby boom will also "retire" from procreative life, as in Germany, so the number of French births should decline in the future, but not as much as in Germany (in France the baby boom ended in 1974, so the last women born during the baby boom are now 35 y/o, but the drop in births that followed the French baby boom was not as massive as in Germany), and b- life expectancy has increased a lot, so the number of old people has increased a lot, and eventually they will die, which will push up the number of deaths, thus mechanically reducing the excess of births over deaths. At the peak of this phenomenon, in the 2040s, when the generations born during the baby boom will die massively, the number of deaths in France could be as high as the number of births (while in Germany the number of deaths will be massively higher than the number of births).

It shows a more rapid increase of population than what the previous population projections published 5 years ago forecasted. This is due to a- the new French census, started in 2004, which has shown that the French population was higher than what was previously thought, and b- the increase in the French fertility rate (the TFR on which the previous population projections were based was 1.90, whereas the new population projections now use a TFR assumption of 1.95 for the next 50 years, althouth this is still lower than the observed French TFR which is closer to 2.0 than 1.95).

As a result of this more rapid increase, the population of France is now forecast to reach 75.8 million in 2050, which is 2.3 million higher than was forecasted 5 years ago. Given that the population of France was 65.4 million in 2010, that means an increase of 10.4 million in 40 years, which is the size of a country like Portugal or Tunisia.

INSEE extended the population projections to the year 2060. In 2060 the population of France is forecast to reach 77.2 million people. Not that these forecasts are based on a rather modest net migration assumption of +100,000 per year. If the net migration is +150,000 per year (which is closer to what's observed in the UK, but still much lower than what was observed in Spain and Italy these past years), then the population of France in 2060 would reach 80.7 million.

The French population should hit the 70 million mark in the year 2023 according to INSEE (or even 2021 if we use a TFR closer to 2.0, which is the current TFR of France, INSEE having been a bit more conservative in their forecast). That means in about 12 years from now France should have 70 million inhabitants.

Last but not least, after the French and German statistical offices published their new population forecasts this year, it now appears that the French population will pass the German population much sooner than was previously thought. The population of France is now forecast to pass the population of Germany in the year 2040, at which time France will become the most populated country in the EU if neither Turkey nor Russia enter the EU.

Here you have the population projections for France and Germany from 2010 to 2060. The net migration assumption is the same for both countries, i.e. +100,000 per year, which is what has been observed in France these past years, but which is far higher than what is currently observed in Germany, where net migration is now negative. If net migration in Germany remains smaller than +100,000, or worse, negative, as is now the case, then the German curve would drop much more than in the graph below.

And France does not have a population of 65.4m today, its just under 63m like the UK......and please dont give my any nonsense about including overseas department populations in your stats....the only figure that counts is the European based French population.

Otherwise i could just as easily say that the 5m British Passport holders based overseas should be included in the UK population figure of 62.5m...

Well nope. These British population projections are old, they were made before the start of the economic crisis, assuming an unsustainably high net migration rate that corresponded to the pre-crisis boom years. Also, they didn't take into account the new French population projections.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Degsy

And France does not have a population of 65.4m today, its just under 63m like the UK......and please dont give my any nonsense about including overseas department populations in your stats...

Well then surely we should also not include Northern Ireland in the British population. So the UK has only 59 million inhabitants.

The German statistical office has this week released the German age pyramid as of Jan. 1, 2010. I have superimposed it on the French age pyramid. It shows the historical scissor movement between these two countries that is taking shape under our eyes (the last scissor movement, when the German generations passed the French generations in numbers, took place in the 1820s).

On the age pyramids you can see:
- the effect of the Third Reich's natalist policies from 1934 to 1944
- the collapse of French births in 1940
- the collapse of German births in 1945
- the very strong German baby-boom in the 1950s and 1960s, which wasn't the result of a particularly high German fertility rate (fertility in Germany at the time was lower than in France), but which was due to the fact that the women born during the Third Reich reached child-bearing age
- the sharp end of the German baby-boom around 1970, much sharper than in France where fertility didn't decline as much
- the moderate rebound of German births in the 1980s due to the fact that the numerous women born during the German baby-boom reached child-bearing age
- the catastrophic collapse of the German birth rate since 1990
- the historical inversion between the German and French generations from 1999 on

Fascinating thread. Is "who's got the most people" a concern among French, German and UK people or mostly an interesting pattern for specialist? In any event, it seems that none of these cultures is on the verge of extinction.

Does "rurification" basically mean a return to the countryside or more like a movement to somewhat newer and more spacious suburbs? Given modern communication, either is possible. I understand that Lille has some new life now that is connected by high-speed rail to Paris.