Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>
> > > Brian Atkins writes,
> > > > I bet that splicing these genes into rich people's pre-kids will be
> > > > common by 2004. May or may not be in time to help much with
> Singularity.
>
> > Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> > > I doubt this. We aren't seeing gene splicing or genetic engineering of
> > > offspring now, despite many useful genes already being discovered.
>
> Brian Atkins wrote,
> > Wanna bet? This is the kind of thing where after a few people publicly
> > start doing it, I bet the rest will come running to do it too. Especially
> > if these are seen as "naturally occurring genes" that many children are
> > simply "missing".
>
> I will bet anything or any amount of money on this. (Come on, make me
> rich!)
> 2004 is only 3 years away. We can't even get genetically engineered corn on
> the market in a few years. I can't see human genetic engineering becoming
> "common" in less time.
>

If you will accept a change in the bet, I will bet $1000. The bet will be
that by the end of 2004, it will be fairly common (let's say 10% of people
in the selected group) for rich (the top million people in the USA, so
for bet to be won we need 100k people doing this in 2004) people in the USA
to screen their potential embryos (after fertilization and say a few cell
divisions) for the best set of "intelligence genes". This will likely be
done in combination with testing for several other genetic markers. The
bet may also be won if there is a total of 100k people of any class, so
for instance if this takes off in the upper middle class but not among
the really rich then I still win. Accept?