“By far the best predictors are the winners of other major awards, like the Golden Globes,” Silver wrote on his New York Times blog.

Silver’s other three rules are slightly less obvious:

Nominees whose movie also was nominated for Best Picture tend to do better;

Comedies, not so much, except for supporting roles;

Previous winners are at a disadvantage, while repeat nominees who haven’t won are at an advantage.

“By contrast, other variables like release dates, Rotten Tomatoes scores and box office grosses (otherwise, how could ‘Avatar’ have been upset last year?) don’t seem to matter, at least not once you’ve accounted for these other factors,” Silver wrote.

See more, including application of all of this to the current crop of nominees, in his post. And remember, this is all for entertainment. No gambling.