NEW DELHI: Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is poised for a thumping victory in the third successive assembly elections, post-poll surveys conducted by national news channels have predicted, strengthening his prospects for being named his party's prime ministerial candidate ahead of the next general elections.

The forecasts range from around two-thirds seats to a landslide for the ruling BJP in the 182-seat Gujarat assembly, relegating the opposition Congress to even fewer seats than its tally of 59 in the 2007 polls.

While the surveys in Gujarat have come as an indication of yet another electoral debacle for Congress, which leads the ruling coalition at the Centre, the party is predicted to unseat the ruling BJP in Himachal Pradesh in the recently held state elections.

The surveys show that Modi overcame caste and regional barriers, thwarting even his party colleague-turned-challenger Keshubhai Patel in Saurashtra, a region that several political analysts had said could turn out to be his Waterloo.

BJP leaders have claimed that Modi's hat-trick will redefine the political paradigm as the "pro-incumbency wave" in the state indicates the voters' preference for good governance and development. They have cited the predictions about Saurashtra, driving home the point that effective governance can transcend caste and other primordial loyalties, given that even a tall Leuva Patel leader like Keshubhai Patel failed to dent BJP's prospects in the region.

The results also signify lack of traction for the Congress' "secular versus communal" politics and its senior leaders including party president Sonia Gandhi, a senior BJP leader said.

However, if the results, due on Thursday, match the post-poll surveys, Modi's reaffirmation as BJP's tallest leader may spell trouble for the alliance that the party leads. JD (U) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has made it clear that his party will not accept Modi as the PM candidate of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.

Daunted by the prospect of JD (U) parting ways over the issue, senior BJP leaders, including party president Nitin Gadkari, have stressed that all coalition members will be consulted before the candidate is finalised. If Modi emerges stronger after the results of the just-concluded assembly polls, though, several sections of the party are sure to rally behind him, increasing the possibility of a rift with Nitish Kumar.

Analysts say that while the Congress leadership will be looking at JD (U)'s exit to strengthen its line-up against the Modi-led BJP, much will depend on Congress' ability to become a rallying point for anti-BJP forces. The BJP, on the other hand, they say, will aggressively seek to enlist the support of "unattached parties" such as the AIADMK, BJD and TDP.

While AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa shares a good rapport with Modi, BJD chief Naveen Patnaik may also prove amenable to an alliance given that his state has less than 3 per cent minority votes while the TDP will be more mindful of the minority voters.

The Congress can also take heart from the surveys predicting its win in the recent elections in Himachal Pradesh, results of which are also due on Thursday. While C-Voter has predicted 30-38 seats for the Congress in the 68-member assembly, Chanakya has predicted 40 seats for the Congress in the state.

C-Voter has predicted 27-35 seats for the BJP, but Chanakya has given just 23 to the ruling party in the state.