The Pac-12, the Big Ten, the four-team playoff and Larry Scott’s … line in the sand???

It’s the season for conference meetings, and college football’s postseason has taken the place of realignment as the hottest topic in the room.

One day Nick Saban is ripping “self-absorbed people” — perhaps the funniest thing the Nicktator has ever said — and the next, the Big 12 is coming out in favor of a selection committee picking the participants in a four-team playoff.

(The Pac-12 is up next, with its presidents and chancellors gathering in San Diego this weekend to discuss a variety of topics, including the playoff model.)

For all the opinions expressed by coaches and commissioners, I can’t help but think the postseason will ultimately be determined by 24 people:

The presidents and chancellors of the Pac-12 and Big Ten universities.

Remember, Larry Scott and Jim Delany work for their CEOs (although sometimes you’d think it was the other way around).

Remember, too, that those 24 CEOs are generally a conservative bunch — more conservative than their commissioners and more conservative than their fellow presidents and chancellors in the SEC and Big 12.

I’m not convinced the Pac-12/Big Ten power brokers are ready for a full-blown, four-team playoff outside, or even inside, the existing bowl structure.

They sure as heck aren’t ready for a full-blown, four-team playoff that significantly diminishes the stature of the Rose Bowl.

(Right now, the Rose is the kingpin of the four non-national championship games. That would not be the case in years it didn’t host a semifinal.)

Two comments in recent weeks have struck me as particularly telling when it comes to the position we can expect to see from the B1G and Pac-12 CEOs.

The first came courtesy of Nebraska chancellor Harvey Perlman, who told ESPN.com:

“It is clear the presidents will still make the final decision. We’ve had some informal meetings, the Big Ten presidents and the Pac-12 presidents, and I think we’re largely aligned in thinking a plus-one with a different ranking after the bowl games to select No. 1 and 2 would be acceptable. Our second choice would probably be a four-team playoff inside the bowls. Our highest priority is to preserve the status of the Rose Bowl and our connection to it.”

Then, after the Big 12 and SEC unveiled a plan in mid-May to create their so-called “Champions Bowl” — their version of the Rose Bowl — Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott told the Wall Street Journal:

“I’d say before Friday that idea of a plus-one didn’t have much traction, but I think the announcement on Friday’s a game-changer. We’re pretty far down the path on four-team playoff options, but given the very positive reaction to what the SEC and Big 12 have done, it’s possible that (a plus-one) could get some traction.”

After the SEC/Big 12 announcement, CBSSports’ Dennis Dodd smartly noted that it furthered the division between the four leagues with prestigious postseason games (Pac-12, B1G, SEC and Big 12) and the two leagues without prestigious postseason games (ACC and Big East).

But I believe the SEC/Big 12 announcement created — or, perhaps more accurately, exacerbated — the differences in opinion between the longtime partners (Pac-12 and B1G) and the new couple on the block (SEC and Big 12).

The Pac-12 and B1G are more than Rose Bowl partners. The Pac-12 presidents and chancellors have always viewed the B1G as their peer group and vice-versa, not only on the field but in the halls of academia, with the multi-sport scheduling partnership is further evidence of their connection.

They have always, to put it bluntly, considered themselves to possess more high-minded interests than the Big 12 and SEC latter. (Whether that’s actually the case is not for this discussion.)

There’s no way Scott would mention reprising the Plus-One model if he thought it was off the table for his presidents/chancellors and those in the B1G.

Instead … and this is just my reading, based on Scott’s comment and conversations with league officials over time … I believe the Pac-12 CEOs favor of incremental change to the postseason — change that has minimal impact on the Rose Bowl. In their view, that’s best delivered by the Plus-One.

Scott’s comment, especially when read in conjunction with Perlman’s, was a way of saying (again: my interpretation):

“My CEOs are not necessarily ready to move in lockstep with the SEC and Big 12 on the playoff model, and they can’t get there without us.”

Essentially, the Champions Bowl provided the Pac-12 — and the B1G — with the excuse needed to dig in their heels on the playoff format.

Although the Champions and Rose would not be official semifinals, in tandem they could be close enough to satisfy the CEOs’ desire to upgrade the current system while stopping short of a full-blown playoff.

And in their view, the middle ground could very well be a Plus One.

(Side note: Whenever he addresses the playoff model, Delany uses phrases like “open to it.” Best I can tell, he has never said he “supports” a playoff — a critical distinction, in my mind. Again: His CEOs are conservative bunch.)

Pac-12 officials have to be think that the playoff model — especially one with the best four teams qualifying (the SEC plan) — further tilts the national championship scales to the southeast, and away from the west coast.

How reasonable a path to the playoff would USC have when it’s playing nine league games and Notre Dame and a quality B1G opponent as part of the scheduling partnership?

Meanwhile, the best SEC teams are playing eight league games and three non-conference cupcakes, if not four?

(Michigan, which also plays Notre Dame annually, would be in the same predicament as USC relative to their counterparts in the SEC. The Wolverines, coincidentally or not, are opposed to the playoff.)

Bottom line:

Would a four-team playoff be fabulous, whether it’s inside or outside the current bowl structure? Sure.

Jon Wilner

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I thought the real problem Oregon had against LSU, aside from the turnovers, was LaMichael James seemed to shy away from contact. I don’t want to say it was fear because I don’t know for sure but that’s what it looked like to me. But that’s neither here nor there. And James is a 49er now…..

Anyways, I think I’m at cross-purposes on the playoff thing. If I had my druthers both the Pac 12 and Big Ten would wish you folks and the Big 12 well with your new Magnolia Bowl, we would retreat to Pasadena and call it good. If the playoff is going to happen then I would like to see it limited to conference champions, or perhaps the meet-in-the-middle that’s been proposed where it’s conference champions in the top 6 then fill with at-larges as necessary. As to the fate of the Rose Bowl in that scenario, in the alchemist dream world it would be exempt from hosting national semifinals unless the Pac 12 and Big Ten champions both make the field of four and in that scenario those two teams would meet in the Rose Bowl in a playoff game regardless of their seeding.

I know that will never happen, and that’s why I don’t want to touch the playoff in the first place.

StanTheMan

No the goal is not to have the best four teams, the goal is to a) crown a national champion, and b) make as much money as possible – and the order of those might not be the same.

The ratings for the LSU-Bama rematch were the lowest for any of the championship games. Why? Because few outside the SEC cared. You want ratings? Then pit two conference champions from different parts of the country and let them have at it.

Is the SEC deeper than the Pac12? No argument here. But that doesn’t matter. What matters is crowning a national champion and having the maximum number of people watch it. Woulda loved to have seen LSU take on Okie St or Oregon for all the marbles.

SEC Fan

Stan the Man: Don’t get me wrong – I went to the NC game and didn’t really want to. Not good for College FB to have two teams that familiar with each other playing. Even Alabama fans will admit to that. Everyone but them would’ve loved OKSU’s offense vs our defense (although I pulled all year for Stanford).
When I hear all the “playoff” scenarios, I start longing for the days of split champions!! And, while I love picking on the Big 10 (or 12), what goes around comes around – they’ll be back shortly – they’ve got some great coaches in that league now. And the PAC 12 potentially has some up amd coming programs. Probably help if the two schools in Arizona could figure out how to be a little consistent! And y’all are gonna love Mike Leach – will be plenty of 60-50 games, looks like flag football

Guys, thanks for visiting with me – I’ll keep reading all your posts.
And do remember, us southern folks think that, if they stay healthy, SC will be in the hunt all year long, as will Oregon. Can’t wait to watch that game!!!

ccrider55

SEC Fan:

Congrats on winning the regional. Good luck the rest of the way…or at least until you face a PAC team that doesn’t have a soccer player playing third .

Unless you begin by saying conference champions are not necessarily the best in that conference (and greatly diminishing the regular season) only conference champions should be allowed. To me LSU is last years NC as they eliminated Ala and wern’t allowed to face the next challenger.

SEC Fan

ccrider55 – That guy was a one man wrecking crew wasn’t he? We have some really fine pitchers in the SEC but Scott Schultz was the best pitcher we faced all year – we were all some impressed. Also impressed by OSU’s coach, as we all remembered from a few years ago, he’s a class act
If we’re fortunate enough to get to Omaha, we’ll face UCLA in the first game. I’d like for you to see if you can get their third baseman lessons from the poor OSU guy!!! Should we play the Bruins, you’ll see two first rate pitchers – our Friday night guy is going in the top 5 of the draft later today

stanfordfan

I think the concept of Conference Champion is a little unclear… It should include the top 4 rated teams who won their conference championship or who is not affiliated with a conference.

This opens the door wide open for ACC or Big East or even Mountain West if their conference champion is rated up there. Or if Notre Dame comes back to their historical greatness, of course they, or any other independent, should be included if they are rated ahead of the #4 conference champion.

Just don’t let a single conference absorb two or more of the 4 spots in the playoffs… The comments about last year’s BCS championship game being of little interest to the rest of the country are right on…

SF

The PAC 10 and Big Ten commissioners can grandstand all they want.
But as soon as this new Championship game between the SEC and the Big 12 takes hold and gains traction, watch the PAC 10 and Bign Ten come to the bargaining table and meakly agree to a playoff system.
Never thought the SEC and Big 12 would be considered progressive and forward thinking.

alchemist

SF:

If the Big Ten and Pac 12 are so insignificant and you think you can do it without us then by all means, do it, start your game, get your traction, set up your system and leave us to our piddly Rose Bowl where we can wallow in our mediocrity from now until the end of time. In the immortal words of the greatest San Franciscan of all time, one Mr Harry Callahan: Go ahead, make our day.

stanfordfan

Alchemist, we disagree often, but you’re response to SF was terrific. This episide is showing the SEC as arrogant and greedy. Like so many from the Pac 12 and Big 10, I’d rather go back to our wonderful 100-year Rose Bowl tradition than have to stomach any more of those BCS Championship games featuring two teams from the same SEC division. The BCS ranking system is flawed and biased. Conference champions are determined on the field of play and are indisputable.

Trojan4Ever

Hey SEC folks:
What was your position back in 2006 when Ohio State and Michigan were 1 and 2? If memory serves me correctly, the screams from the SEC were that the loser had been eliminated from any NCG consideration. Why the change of heart now????
I like the 3 plus 1 idea, top 3 conference champs plus 1 additional team, chased by non-partisan committee.
And, FIGHT ON!!!

MostWanted

@ 40 Alche

Does it show that much?

I guess it takes a (future) MWC fan to bring out the SEC fans. I know they hate the Rose Bowl. They have always hated the fact that the Grandaddy of them ALL is in California, just as they hate the fact that California still holds the record for the biggest large mouth bass ever caught (or is that Texas?) all the same, mentality wise. I’ll tell you the secret as to why the largemouth bass grew bigger out west and that is vitamin T (Trout).

I’m only throwing proposals out there to see if I get any bites and low and behold I caught the king of the lake. I don’t think they care about the MWC or C-USA at all really but I knew if I threw in The Rose Bowl that it would get their attention. On a more serious note as a fan of a team that has had the deck stacked against them in many different ways including the thing that must not be mentioned *cough* *cough* Berkley MP, it seems quite silly to me as to how there can be so many bad sportsman out there. Play with a fair deck and if you lose then you lose, it’s just a game. You ruin the game if you can’t handle the winning/losing. You can’t win them all.

SEC Fan

To my friends Most Wanted and Trojan Forever – First, I have a son who lives in San Diego, graduated from SDSU and USD law school, a daughter who graduated from Colorado State and a son who graduated from LSU but now lives in Fort Collins – I’ve forgotten more than you know about the MWC! And it was wonderful getting to see TCU in the Rose Bowl!!! And I’m stll trying to figure out the difference in two teams from the same conference playing for the nc and the PAC 12 and the BIG 10 (or 12) playing every year in the Rose Bowl. You think watching LSU and Alabama was boring to you, try watching SC beat the crap out of Wisconsin (or whoever) each year. But, I do agree with Alchemist that, assuming you’re looking for entertainment and not a true national champ, it’s way more fun for teams from different parts of the country to play at the end of the year, as opposed to the same old, same old (read: two SEC teams or the Rose Bowl) But, I never miss the parade – it’s spectacular!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Trojan – You don’t honestly think that any LSU or Alabama fan cared whether the Gators played for the nc in 2006 do you? We gotta recruit against those guys!! And, I’ll repeat myself, LSU will trade schedules with you any time you’d like.

For both of you – we folks in the south are way too arrogant about the SEC. But, I’ll also tell you we learned how to be arrogant from the folks at the Rose Bowl

Have A GREAT day!!!

SF

The Rose Bowl is over.
The major sports networks will listen to the SEC, Texas and OU before they listen to the PAC 10. Face it.
The PAC 10 is USC and everyone else. End of discussion.

alchemist

SEC Fan:

How big was the gap between LSU and USC’s conference schedules? Both faced one quality conference opponent on the road (Oregon and Alabama), both faced another conference opponent who was highly ranked but didn’t really have any big wins (Arkansas and Stanford) and after that, do you really think the gap in the conference schedule was that big? How much better were Florida, Auburn and Mississippi State than Washington, Cal and Utah? The SEC has been a Murderer’s Row in years past and the top of the SEC is still fantastic (the BCS streak speaks to this) but I think the middle of the conference is decidedly not what it once was.

Jim Jones

SF you need to get back on your meds. The Rose Bowl is not oveer the SEC will die before it does and the Big 12 does not maatter. The SEC is located in a bunch of hillbilly towns in the deep south where they have no idea what is going on

Jim

MostWanted

The problem is my team and about 64 other teams has virtually no shot at the title if it’s only a 4 team playoff. I’ve heard the $ is good (a lot better than the BCS payouts). How are we ever going to see the underdog run the gauntlet this way. Personally my ego is not so large that I have to claim my team National Champion but it would be, what’s the word they’re using, oh, compelling to see Rocky Balboa, a virtual unknown knock out Apollo Creed. You can’t tell me honestly that there’s another scenario out there that has more drama than that.

StanTheMan

@MostWanted – underdogs have a shot if they win their conference. Boise State didnt the last two years, and would likely have been top 5 if they had (in part due to being 12-0 instead of 11-1)

ccrider55

SEC fan:

I can understand the south east not caring as much about the Rose Bowl. They have less interaction with the participating conferences than they do with conferences closer. The interest in the Rose Bowl is strong from Pennsylvanis contiguously across the Midwest, over the Rockies, through the desert southwest and the whole west coast. That encompasses something like 40% of the populace. I watch the Orange Bowl, but with less interest unless there in a personal, or regional affiliation. Any conference do over is ridiculous. If 1 and 2 are in the same conference let 1 and 3 play. We aren’t trying to decide who is #2.

skunkapekiller

stanfordfan….what is fantasy about my post?

conference realignment is happening almost every day of the week?

500 million is the number being thrown around for a four team playoff…how much would a 16 team playoff get the ncaa?

a true playoff with teams that don’t make the tourney still going to all the existing bowls? everyone wins.

SEC Fan

Alchemist and ccrider- no question the SEC wasn’t as strong overall as it has been… but then, neither was the PAC 12. Both conferences need a little consistency from their middle of the pack schools. And, from a schedule point of view, don’t forget West Virginia on the road. They were really pumped – record crowd, GameDay, etc. So LSU’s schedule last year was difficult by any measure but we don’t do that very often. Most schools in the SEC play three gimmes at home because a home game means about 2.5 to 3 million dollars in revenue. I, and many others, would love for that to change but…
As far as the Rose Bowl is concerned, I really do hope that it gets to keep the BIG 10 (or12) – PAC 12 connection, even with the number two teams. I just don’t think it would be right for the Rose to insist that it be the site of a semifinal game (in the playoff picture being discussed now) every year. The other bowls need the interest that game will draw also. And I’ll say again, one of the reasons, in fact, the main reason, the Rose gets no love from the rest of the country is their arrogance. They make southern football fans look reasonable!!
By the way, what a job Larry Scott has done for the PAC 12 – been amazing the progress he’s made in getting the schools increased revenues – which is going to make all of their sports better. Great move hiring him

ccrider55

Skunkapekiller:

$0.00 is the answer. NCAA does not get any money from D1 football. And if having to give them a share in order to have a playoff either we won’t have a playoff or the big boys conferences will leave the NCAA.

stanfordfan

skunkapekiller – you’re suggesting that your post that completely changes the makeup and character of most of the conferences is factual?

alchemist

skunkapekiller:

I skipped over your post before because it was long and in all capital letters and so I thought it would be offensive to my eyes. But, when compared to what was actually written…

No. No no. No no no no no. No.

stanfordfan and ccrider are doing a fine job blowing holes in your manifesto and so I’ll take another line of attack. A 16 team playoff will never happen even if we realigned all the conferences from scratch.

The money you believe a playoff would generate would come from its TV coverage. 16 teams means 15 games spread over four weeks to get from 16 to 8 to 4 to 2 to 1. When will those games be played? No one wants the season to drag into spring semester because it will be murder on the players. But even if we ignore the welfare of the student-athletes then we run into the even larger problem of the NFL playoffs which, being America’s most popular sport, suck up all the air time once they begin. So we’re basically limited to December and maybe the first week of January to get everything wrapped up.

So now we need to find time slots. The NFL still owns Sunday in December and the opening weekend of a 16 team playoff we’ve got 8 games to play. Do you want to play multiple games at the same time or try to spread that over multiple days? Run games simultaneously and you split the viewing audience and decrease the value of the contract. Give each game its own broadcast window and you give an advantage to the winners of the two games that would have to be played on Thursday and the two on Friday before the Saturday quadruple header. I should also point out that moving multiple games into December will put college football head-to-head with the NFL, who starts a package of Thursday and Saturday regular season games as soon as the college season is done.

A 16 team playoff would also take place right smack in the middle of finals (student-athletes, remember). If David Shaw wants a player focused on the upcoming game with LSU and they’ve got a calculus exam to study for then it puts the student in a really bad position, and that has the potential to drag on for weeks if the team continues to advance. The Big Ten and Pac 12 will NEVER go for something that could pull students out of class for that long at that time.

You would also be asking a bunch of 18-23 year old kids to play 15 football games a year. A 15 game season is theoretically possible right now (12 regular season games + road game at Hawaii + CCG + bowl) but I can’t remember anyone ever doing it, but under your model it would be an annual thing for at least two teams to do it with limited opportunities for bye weeks to rest and recover. If they’re worried about concussions in the NFL then sooner or later someone will notice this too and start to raise a stink about it.

So, no, a 16 team playoff won’t be happening.

stanfordfan

Thanks, Alchemist… Spot on…

stanfordfan

The momentum seems to be in the direction of a selection committee (not BCS standings) choosing the four playoff teams with the first game being part of the existing bowl system… The selection committee could certainly consider conference championships and strength of schedule… Seems to be working just fine in NCAA basketball…

Basketball starts with the premis all conference champs are in (although many conferences chose to label their tournament champ the auto qualifier). They select a field of 68 and still sometimes leave out an obvious choice. Who was it a few years ago that went undefeated all year until their conf tourney final, and got left out? I want to say Butler, or Davidson?

You need a concrete formula before the season starts that can’t be influenced by opinion, prejudice (other than what gets built into the formula), or the “eyeball test”. That would build legitimacy. But, I guess that assumes legitimacy is a primary concern to the power brokers .

skunkapekiller

my manifesto was looked at by a former mwc player from about ten years ago and he had no problem with playing that many games if they were good enough to have that problem…most teams would would be done playing the end of oct or beginning of nov and then if you were good enough to get a bowl invite you get one more in nov or dec? also with the internet, time in class isn’t as important as it was in the past…players can be on a bus and be in class pretty much at the same time?

alchemist

skunkapekiller:

Maybe it’s the degree I have from a Pac 10 school that leads me to say “Study on the bus and there’s always the internet,” isn’t as cut and dry as you make it out to be. Uninterrupted quiet time away from all distractions is not the same as being cramped into an uncomfortable space where you’re surrounded by your friends and coaches. Add in the fact some of those coaches might want to try to bring up strategy for the next week’s quarterfinal (their jobs are on the line, after all) and it seems set up for abuse of the players.

If you want to get around those issues by shortening the season then you’re going to do it over a good many team’s dead bodies. There’s a lot of money in a 12 game season, both in increased ticket sales and greater sponsorship rates from the added exposure of a potential extra home game. Little schools use those extra games as opportunities to go on the road to bigger schools and they collect million dollar paychecks for their trouble and that’s how they balance their books. You’re pulling a lot of money from a lot of mouths if you’ve only got 16 teams playing in mid-November instead of 120.

So again, your idea won’t work.

skunkapekiller

sub the away game at notre dame with another home game against louisville and you think usc wouldn’t like EIGHT homes games?

then for all those lower level schools that are struggling to bring in other d1 schools to their campus with my “flex games” each school is guaranteed four homes every year and no d2 filler games..instead of georgia state traveling to ga tech they can host idaho state in the georgia dome if they want….if your divsion has a good year and has the highest winning % in flex play you could host another home game and if your conference does well in flex play you could host another on campus game? that would be seven home games!!

all those bowl games that are played in november and december would all be played just like years past…they would played alongside the national tourament.

skunkapekiller

as for the academic stuff, the ncaa is prohibiting postseason play if your school or program isn’t up to par on certain graduation stuff so if your guys aren’t getting it done in the classroom from now on there won’t be a postseason to play for anyways…ask coach calhoun at uconn how damaging that rule has been for his program….no postseason play and guys can transfer out without sitting out a year.

ccrider55

Lay off the psychedelics.

alchemist

skunkapekiller:

That’s it. I’m done.

stanfordfan

skunkapekiller, you’re lacking mastery of the nuances if this issue. Alchemist has been commenting in this blog for years and he gets it. He gave you much more attention than your naive fantasy world deserves. If you go back and study how the NCAA football postseason and realignment world has evolved, you should pick up on the political reality of how change takes place and gain some appreciation of what is reasonable. That comprises the boundary of the discussion in this blog. You’re in a different world altogether. If you want to join the party with legitimate, relevant and reasonable commentary, fine. Otherwise, this, too, is my final response to your odd input…

skunkapekiller

the arguments that alchemist brought up were home games/money games and academics and after explaining that under my plan both large and small schools would benefit greatly with my manifesto he just stops arguing?

he didn’t answer my question of whether or not having up to eight homes games for bigger schools and seven home games for smaller schools would alleviate the need for schools like sjsu who in 2010 played three money games against the big 10, sec, and the pac12 and was outscored 125-20?

and as for academics most my new divsions are much much closer so most teams are busing (money saver) to some/most of the their new conferences members…which give the student athlete more time in the classroom instead of o school like marshall who now doesn’t have to leave the east coast for most of its games..

MostWanted

OTOH,

What if the highest seed plays the lowest deed and just pounds them 72-0, a reverse Rocky, more like Rocky Vs. Clubber Lang in the first fight?

That would not be compelling. LOL

If they were conference Champions though, I mean logically that should never happen right?

MostWanted

OTOH,

What if the highest seed plays the lowest deed and just pounds them 72-0, a reverse Rocky, more like Rocky Vs. Clubber Lang in the first fight?

That would not be compelling. LOL

If they were conference Champions though, I mean logically that should never happen right? It’s a little awkward talking SEC Vs. PAC when our coach hails from Georgia. One thing is for sure they coach ’em up in the south, I like it.

alchemist

stanfordfan:

Thanks.

Thomas Paine once said “To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead.” I think it has become apparent that that is what we’re dealing with here.

MostWanted

@ sak

Thank You for taking a very small sample size of San Jose’s first year head coach anywhere, barely out of APR hell, barely off life support, taking on the defending BCS Champs, the Heisman trophy winner, and Nick Saban IN Alabama took a lot of guts and here you are kicking sand in our face. Please keep away from the patients or they’ll never recover. sick sick sick

Despite playing at Wisconsin the following week they did pretty good and improved, a small moral victory but did anybody expect San Jose to win?

This is what I’m talking about, on the one hand they stack the deck and horde the cash like a meizer and then on the other hand they say you can’t compete with us. It is insane so sign me up for the loony bin because I see clearly what has been going on and I say it’s not a level playing field and they keep saying you have a chance at the NCG. Ha!

Quit stacking the freaking deck and show some gentlemen quality. Conduct yourself as a competitor not an East Coast reporter who votes in-line with the rest of the voters because they don’t know squat.