Thursday, 2 March 2017

Record surge in commodity prices

The Reserve Bank of Australia's Index of Commodity Prices recorded another solid 1.7 per cent gain gain February in SDR terms, following on from a revised 4.2 per cent increase in January.

The spectacular rebound follows a long decline in commodity prices from 2012 to early 2016.

After a remarkable run since January 2016, the figures for spot prices suggest that a peak may soon be in, with coking coal prices recently retracing, although the iron ore price has remained very strong for now.

Over the past year the index has increased by 56 per cent in SDR terms, with the last two months notching the largest annual percentage gains on record, also driven by coal and iron ore.

In Aussie dollar terms the index is up by 41 per cent over the year to February. .

With LNG exports now accounting for a greater share of GDP growth, other key trends to watch will include the price of oil and the contract export prices for LNG.