GKP daily and hourly 15/07/13

As ever, I'll try and keep the emotive issues of fundamentals out of this but it's hard to do these days!

We start with the daily chart which shows a failure of the main RSI downtrend breakout and a crash through both the 166p and 158p supports. I've highlighted here the possibility of a drop to the 61.8% Fib which would also be a backtest of the previous trendline break and also at the previous support/resistance level of 147/9p. There are other possibilities which are best viewed on the hourly charts.

Two ways to view this chart: one is with the bullish wave count I've annotated it with which shows the SP hitting support at the 50% Fib of the whole move or the 61.8% Fib of the move referred to by Ian in the previous comments. (Note also the circled Fib which was referred to on the daily chart)

The other possibility is that this was a bear flag. A break of that uptrend support would strengthen the case for that but then there's still that 149p level to consider. If the bear case is in play, the alternative wave count would be per the following chart...

So, we can see that there are several options in play and the trick will be to know which levels to look for. Clearly 155p is a support and the SP may bounce from here (great call Ian). The question then would be whether 166p becomes resistance again.

A break of 155p brings into play the possibilities of either 149p or something much lower (the daily down channel hits 87p at the end of September) and the final option is to wait for a break of 180p to confirm a higher high and perhaps give us a 1-2, 1-2 up from 129.25p which would actually be very bullish.

Very difficult to call this complicated pattern correctly now but long at 155p with a stop below 149p or short on a break of 155p with a wider stop above 180p are the obvious plays here

Contact

Use of our site is for information purposes only and in no way constitutes investment advice. We are not regulated by the FSA in the provision of services on this site. Any opinions expressed on this site are purely the opinions of those expressing the same and do not reflect the opinions or constitute investment advice by ChartsView or their associates, affiliates or employees. The material displayed on our site is provided without any guarantees, conditions or warranties as to its accuracy