Public doubts about Conservative policy and character of a leader who talks the talk

Today's YouGov poll for The Daily Telegraph, one of the most detailed
surveys of public attitudes to the Conservatives since David Cameron became
leader, indicates that he has not one but two mountains to climb before he
can claim an election victory.

Those Conservatives baffled by Mr Cameron’s pleas against complacency should study these numbersPhoto: PA

Benedict Brogan, chief political commentator

8:00AM BST 07 Sep 2009

Not only must he overcome an electoral system that, as we make clear elsewhere, is heavily weighted against his party, it turns out he has yet to conquer persistent voter doubts about both his character and policies.

Our poll sets out the challenge facing Mr Cameron in an attempt to answer some of the questions the public still has about this would-be government. With less than nine months to go before the next general election, these results will be uncomfortable reading for the Tory high command.

The party’s apparently unassailable double-digit lead over Labour disguises doubts about Mr Cameron and what he will do if elected. At its most basic, the poll confirms what Westminster suspects – that while Labour is fatally unpopular, the Tories are not, yet, popular enough to be certain of the kind of decisive victory secured by Tony Blair in 1997.

Those Conservatives baffled by Mr Cameron’s pleas against complacency should study these numbers. They will be unnerved to find that despite Gordon Brown’s calamitous handling of the Lockerbie affair, Tory support in recent days has slipped to 40 per cent, with Labour on 27 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent.

Given the Prime Minister’s record unpopularity, a 13-point lead over Labour should not be enough to inspire confidence. Mr Cameron can claim credit for removing two major obstacles to winning votes. Compared with two years ago, voters no longer complain that he has abandoned Tory principles.

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He scores highest among those who believe the Tories reflect British values better than before. The leadership is also getting credit for moving the party to the centre. But opinions on Mr Cameron’s character remain unchanged. Two out of three respondents think he talks a good line but fear there is no substance to what he says. A majority does not know what the party stands for.

Overall, the survey finds that public expectations of the Tories are painfully low. Fewer than one in five expects living standards to be higher at the end of a first Cameron government, while a majority – 51pc – expect taxes rises.

While the poll indicates Mr Cameron is on track to defeat Labour, he has work to do to communicate his policies, capture voters’ imaginations and be certain of a decisive victory.