Obama vs. Romney — and Japan

By Yuka Hayashi and Eleanor Warnock

When American voters go to the polls Tuesday, they’re choosing a leader for Japan’s most important ally. What does the contest mean for Tokyo?

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

U.S. President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney shake hands at the end of the third presidential debate on Oct. 22 in Boca Raton, Florida.

Democratic President Barack Obama is, of course, more a known quantity for Japan, from the time he came to Tokyo a few months after taking office, bowing (somewhat controversially) to the Emperor and reminiscing about the green-tea ice cream he had sampled during a boyhood visit. During his term, relations have largely been smooth — seen as strengthened, even, by close military cooperative relief work in the wake of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. There have been tense moments, however, notably over American pressure to move forward with a controversial base relocation plan in Okinawa.

JRT spoke to a number of experts to assess the implications of the contest. In contrast with campaigns of two decades ago — when economic issues dominated the bilateral relationship — national security gets more attention now. The 2012 American election comes at a time of big geopolitical shifts in the Asia-Pacific. Amid a bitter confrontation with an increasingly powerful China, Japanese leaders face urgent questions about how to adjust foreign policy and national security strategies that have for so long centered on bilateral ties with the U.S.

Either candidate would likely deal with Japan the same way — continuing support for the alliance, but putting more pressure on Japan to play a bigger role in regional security.

While the long, hard-fought campaign exposed sharp partisan divisions on a wide range of issues, American policy toward Japan and Asia is one area where Democrats and Republicans are in general agreement. Under Mr. Obama, the U.S. adopted a “pivot” or “rebalance” of its security policy toward Asia, with an eye on China’s growing economic and military prowess. This policy is likely to continue, and probably get more emphasis in the coming years, no matter which candidate wins.

“If Mitt Romney and (running-mate) Paul Ryan win, there is not going to be a turn-away from the so-called pivot to Asia. Asia is too important. Anybody in the next 10 years is going to focus on Asia,” said Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. A national security advisor to Republican President George W. Bush, Mr. Green served as an advisor to Mr. Romney on Asia policy until September, when he took up a senior position at his research institution.

That is welcome news for Japan, where many see a strong U.S. presence in the area as the most effective way to balance China’s expansion and prevent the bilateral island dispute from escalating into violent conflict. The security alliance with the U.S. is as important as ever for Japan in that sense. Some are concerned that fiscal constraints at home and the growing importance of China as an economic partner reduce Washington’s commitment to Japan. No need for such worries, experts say.

The Obama administration has adopted tougher policies toward China lately, as Beijing has grown more aggressive in asserting its territorial claims across the region. Mr. Romney, for his part, has stressed his hard-line stance toward China, particularly in the areas of trade and currency policies. In that context, China’s rise does make the U.S.-Japan alliance more important for the U.S. as well.

Indeed, whoever takes the oath of office in January seems likely to push Japan to step up its role in regional security.

“There is a huge amount of expectation in the U.S. for the alliance with Japan right now,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, director of policy research at the Tokyo Foundation, a private think tank, and an expert on U.S.-Japan relations. “Heeding the importance of the alliance, the U.S. has stood by Japan even when our policy strayed considerably in the past few years. Washington has saved up goodwill. They see now is the time to cash in.”

Mr. Obama began his first term pushing Japan for more. Early in his administration, his then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates publicly embarrassed then-Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama by demanding action on a controversial Marines base relocation plan in Okinawa — a standoff seen as helping cost Mr. Hatoyama his job.

There do appear to be some differences in the national security policies under Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney. During the campaign, Mr. Romney has emphasized the need to increase American defense spending, while Mr. Obama has sought restraint. If Mr. Romney wins, and finds ways to boost defense budget despite fiscal constraints, that could theoretically ease pressure on Japan to shoulder larger burdens of bilateral and regional defense, such as the cost of the planned transfer of U.S. troops from Okinawa to Guam.

In a recent blog post, one self-described “informal advisor” on Asia to Mr. Romney suggested that Japan was confronting China because Tokyo “is less than assured… that Washington ‘has its back’…” Daniel Blumenthal, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington, added: “Might the Japanese read the American newspaper stories that tell daily tales of a declining defense budget and nuclear deterrent?”

A more subtle difference: Under a Republican administration, experts say, there would be more emphasis on bilateral security agreements, including those with countries such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea. The Democrats tend to prefer multilateral cooperation. In what some see as a sign of this tendency, the Obama administration has fostered multilateral security dialogues through its active participation in Asian regional forums in the past few years, sending in Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta numerous times across the Pacific.

Meanwhile, some experts are closely watching how the new administration in the U.S. would interact with a new the government in Japan, to be formed after the upcoming general elections which could happen between late this year and the next summer. A rising trend of nationalism among conservative Japanese politicians is a concern for U.S. officials, but a Democratic administration would probably have less tolerance for such a phenomenon.

Polls in Japan have suggested that the Liberal Democratic Party, the conservative former ruling party, is likely to emerge as the No.1 party again in elections to be held by next summer, under the leadership of its nationalist president, Shinzo Abe. Mr. Abe’s recent visit to a controversial war shrine, as well as hawkish remarks by him and other Japanese lawmakers have not only inflamed China and South Korea but alarmed some in the U.S.

Among such remarks is calls for the reversal of Tokyo’s key apology to Asian neighbors for sex slavery involving the Japanese military during World War II. Joseph Nye, a Harvard professor and former Assistant Secretary of Defense said, with such remarks, Japan is “shooting itself in the foot.” Mr. Nye, who served under two Democratic presidents — Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton — is seen as a strong contender to become ambassador to Japan if Mr. Obama wins. He was among the four former U.S. national security officials from both parties who recently visited Japan and China in an effort to diffuse the bilateral tensions over the disputed islands.

“We have to make sure Japan will not pursue the path of xenophobic nationalism,” said Hitoshi Tanaka, a former senior diplomat and chairman of the Institute for International Strategy at the Japan Research Institute, a private think tank. “Neither the Republicans or the Democrats would like to see Japan becoming isolated in Asia.”

There are few high-profile economic issues right now between the U.S. and Japan. From Tokyo’s standpoint, one priority question is whether the U.S. would approve Japan’s entry into negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade agreement representing over a quarter of the world’s economy. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has said he wants to join negotiations, but Japan needs approval from countries already negotiating, including the U.S., to join the talks.

Obama officials have generally been favorable to Japan’s entry, but have delayed serious discussion until after the election. Some Japanese press have quoted Romney campaign spokespeople saying the Republican was cool to Japan’s entry. But one Romney economic advisor said in a July interview with the Nikkei Weekly that Mr. Romney “fully supports the TPP and Japan’s participation in it.”

The top global priority for Japanese economic policymakers is a weaker yen — and, if needed, support from the U.S. for Japanese intervention to steer their currency lower. Japan has intervened four times during Mr. Obama’s term, and drawn some criticism from his Treasury for it. While Mr. Romney hasn’t spoken about Japan’s actions in currency markets, he has said he would label China ” a currency manipulator,” which could cause some problems for Japan.

“It can be interpreted as it becoming harder for Japan to intervene, as losing flexibility,” said JPMorgan Securities economist Masamichi Adachi.

On the other hand, Mr. Adachi predicts a Romney victory would lead to a stronger dollar, because he is seen as more pro-business, has opposed further easing by the Federal Reserve, and has spoken about the need for a strong dollar to preserve the greenback’s role as the global reserve currency. After a Romney win, he forecasts, “the dollar itself will get stronger, so there is also the aspect of ‘lucky!’ because the yen will weaken without doing anything.”

Comments (5 of 27)

Before the debate,i was Anti-Obama,after- i became Pro-Romney. And after the election-behold,Romney became my Hero. You are my new Reagan,Romney. Who cares conventions, run for president in 2016! Looking for you man.....And in the meantime,make America deserve Romney,,take care of that Michelle

7:40 am November 12, 2012

Only Japanese think they are so wrote:

important to the U.S., China, and the rest of the world. It's manic but so pervasive a feeling among the like of Maehara, Abe, Ishihara, Noda, etc. The fact is that Japan still has not broken free from its fascist past. The fact is that without extensive trading with other countries, and solely depending on its own resources and market, Japan would be a very poor country in the world and the living standard would not be much higher than the 19th century Japan. It's Japan who sourly needs the rest of the world to be on good terms with it, not the other way around.

7:32 am November 9, 2012

worker wrote:

I have no idea what our nation is thinking, I think the lady above said it best many want to stay on food stamps and other stuff forever. It is a wonderful thing and welfare for a season and when it is needed. BUt our nation seems to think it is a career. I was raised by a very poor cold miner we worked hard and got off the system. and I found my own success. Something Obama does not want this nation to do. Study his history as the guy said about romney. Obama's history, his mentors were commonest, he wants the same for us. He says to Russa hold on after the election I will have much more room. The only reason you can sleep at night and not worry that a bomber will hit your home is because America has always been a power house. He is cutting our nukes and helping others build. Stoping our oil wells and paying for other country's to drill. He will bring america to her knees and then we are OPEN PRAY. I think now ALL AMERICA can do is PRAY. that we are kept safe by the house and senate for the next four years and that war does not hit our shores.
And when that happens there will no food stamps anyway...

2:45 am November 9, 2012

wow wrote:

romneys a crook and obamas a....how can i say this nicely....a female dog.romneys stands tall when obama lays down and shuts his mouth.there both fake.this worlds going to !*%@. romney is a strong leader and stands tall and obama leads with kindness in his heart. if we could have 2 presidents, we could slap them together,make them compromise on cirtian things and maybe this world would be ok. till then, we are SCREWED.

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