Eric Hosmer Has Reportedly Received Multiple 7-Year Offers

9:43am:Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star reports that the Royals have not made an offer worth $147MM over seven years to Hosmer, though they remain interested in re-signing him. Mellinger’s report doesn’t specifically refute the length of the offer or that one has been made. Nightengale did stress in yesterday’s report that the length of the offer was confirmed by at least one “high-ranking” member of the Royals, though it’s certainly possible that the overall guarantee has been overstated.

Jan. 4, 9:20am: Boras dismissed Nightengale’s numbers as “inaccurate” when speaking to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required and highly recommended), though he offered no further detail beyond that point. Rosenthal agrees with Nightengale’s assessment that Hosmer is seeking a larger contract both in length and total guarantee, noting that Hosmer is younger than the bulk of free agents that have received contracts of seven or more years in length.

Jan. 3, 1:25pm: San Diego’s offer is at seven years but has not reached $140MM, a source tells Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter).

San Diego, per the report, has dangled a seven-year deal at a healthy $140MM price tag — about $20MM more than had previously been suggested. But the incumbent Kansas City club is said to have topped that bid with a contract that would include a $147MM guarantee. Notably, Nightengale says he was able to confirm the length of the proposed contract terms with both organizations.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Hosmer would only be able to secure a six-year guarantee at a $132MM price tag. That said, we noted that the 28-year-old was seeking more and could drive bidding northward if he found a few organizations that placed a particularly high value on his services.

It seems that’s just what has happened, as Hosmer is now evidently sitting on two appealing offers from two small-market teams that aren’t even expected to contend in 2018. The Royals, of course, are quite familiar with the first baseman and obviously feel his value outstrips the assessment of measures such as wins above replacement. And it seems that’s an opinion shared by the Pads, who must see Hosmer as a potential building block for a young roster that’s expected to bloom in the coming seasons.

For Kansas City, bringing back the team’s core star would not necessarily mean pushing the pedal down for 2018. Rather, the club has indicated throughout the winter that it’ll be drawing back payroll and looking to reload. But such a move would surely impact the team’s overall planning for the coming seasons and might impact its willingness to trade longer-term assets such as Danny Duffy.

Meanwhile, the Padres — whose interest has long been known — would clearly need to bump Wil Myers back into the outfield to make room for Hosmer. Making this deal might also mean dealing away some other assets to make the roster work, though again a signing wouldn’t necessarily be accompanied by other win-now moves. San Diego did recently pick up a short-term veteran at shortstop in Freddy Galvis, though that move is hardly a committing one and the team has mostly endeavored to fill its gaps with low-cost signings. It’s doubtful the organization would drastically alter its timeline in other areas, though certainly adding such a significant salary to the payroll would have a major impact on the options moving forward.

Notably, Hosmer is not just assessing which of these two contracts to take at this point. Rather, Nightengale says that Hosmer and his agent, Scott Boras, are “seeking at least an eight-year or nine-year deal.” Whether or not there’s further room for those offers to grow is not immediately clear, and it’s not entirely evident whether any other teams will enter the bidding in earnest. (The Cardinals have recently been suggested as having ongoing interest, though.) Regardless, it seems that Hosmer is in position to secure a massive contract that meets or exceeds most expectations.

SD offered 120 mill…not 140. This is Boras, at work. And SD would NEVER offer 140 mill, for 8-9 yrs. It’s not in their DNA to be that kind of “big dog”. I’ve been a fan for most of my life, and when they knew Adrian Gonzalez was probably going to want 150 mill, in free agency, they traded him.

If Hosmer is smart, he’ll take the 120, before he becomes another Shields…Spring is right around the corner.

Phillies just paid the same money ($20 mil/yr) for Santana. Chris Davis hit for power, did he deserve that contract? Of course not.
Roughly $20 mil/year for Hosmer in his prime years and everything he brings (solid average, decent power, great defense, intangibles, etc.) isn’t a bad deal at all.

@jeralves79 Boras publicly releases figures all the time. There are two interviews this year including one with Jim Duquette where he released exactly what teams had offered for his still unsigned clients.

No way this is as bad as Davis. Davis is a one way player, power. Hosmer hits for average, gets on base, is a smart player, better defensively than the metrics suggests, hits for power. His age curve also profiles better than most players. This has Freddie Freeman breakout written all over it. Not sure why people have on Hosmer so much. The contract will be well deserved.

Glad you cleared that up about his defense. EVERY defensive metric agrees that he is between average and terrible. But you can now definitively state that your eyeball test supercedes all that. And please … please … don’t cite his Gold Gloves. You might want to lend your endorsement to the Boras camp. He can throw that into the binder.

And his age curve … what insight exactly do you have that Hosmer will age better than his peers?

And finally, super curious about the Freeman comps. Since 2013, Freeman has posted a wRC+ of AT LEAST 132. Since 2013 Hosmer has posted a wRC+ of AT LEAST 1 time. Hosmer’s best offensive year in the past 5 years is a smidge above Freeman’s worst year in that same time frame. They are both the same age. What in the world are you seeing that the rest of the world is missing?

So what new information did you provide is with about Hosmer’s defense? Can you explain to me exactly how every defensive metric is calculated, or do you just know what is considered good and bad and trust that they tell the entire story? Sabremetrics can be extremely helpful and have their place in the game, but man have they become such a lazy crutch for people who want to sound like they know what they are talking about.

You are exactly right. How is UZR calculated? Field is divided into quadrants and if you catch a ball in that quadrant, you get x amount of credit. Doesn’t say if you were standing in that spot when you made the play or if you had to run 5 steps. The Guy helps you Win games by doing things that don’t show up in the box score or on a computer screen. People who do these evaluations for a living understand his value and that is why we are reading about these offers. And I’m aware that agents can fabricate false reports to writers thirsty for a story this time of year.

Hosmer is a lot better than the “one note” Chris Davis. If you want to make a Jason Heyward comparison, it might make more sense. But Hosmer is a lot better than Davis. Baltimore was just foolish in bidding with themselves.

You can use slash lines and he still is inconsistent and not a top tier 1B. Over the past 3 seasons, Hosmer has a 120 wRC+, which is good for 11th among 1B. For comparison, that slots him in between J. Bour (123 wRC+), C. Davis (120), L. Duda (119) and C. Santana (118). He has a pretty long way to go to reach Brandon Belt at 131, which is funny because many here think he is overpaid at 4 years and $17mm/season.

WAR doesn’t make me feel any smarter. It’s one of many ways to judge a player. People are talking about how great he was last year (and he was), but the year prior not so much. I was making a point about how up and down he is year in and year out. Sorry you weren’t smart enough to pick up on that.

Let me help you here. WAR DOES NOT use slash lines. Your BA, OBP, and SLG are not factored into the calculation.

I can only guess that you say WAR isn’t concrete because you don’t understand how it is calculated. That’s fine. It is a little complicated. But before you come in here and tell the world that RBI’s are the most important stat you might want to do a little reading on why WAR has become a useful shorthand to discuss value. Note – it’s not the ONLY tool available but it superior using a triple slash, SB’s, and errors to rate a player.

I took total WAR in 2017 divided by total $ spent. The $ spent number is inflated since it includes buy outs that is really deferred money from the previous year. Also, relief pitchers’ contributions are valued higher than their WAR suggests, so they usually have a much higher WAR cost than position players and starting pitchers. So the actual number is lower. Maybe $4 million?

I know you got your number from Fangraphs. I don’t know how they derive it. Edwin Encarnacion cost $5.4 for each 1 2016 WAR. Ian Desmond cost $5.1 million for each 1 2016 WAR. Dexter Fowler got $3.9 million. Matt Joyce cost $3.2 million. Carlos Beltran did get $8 million per WAR but a one year deal is likely to cost more.

This year Welington Castillo has gotten $3.5 million per WAR. Yonder Alonso has got $4.2 million. Carlos Santana has gotten $5.9 million. Zach Cozart cost $2.6 million per WAR.

One win of WAR was worth $8.25 million for FA signed after the 2016 season. The value of a point of WAR is only calculated for players that are free agents. Most other players are not free to negotiate their salary so that is not included in value of a point of WAR. We have no idea how much it will be worth for 2017 until all the FA are signed.

Hosmer has a WAR value on BR & FG not “a ton of sites” it’s 2 and the difference between them is how they calculate defensive value. Don’t be ignorant and do some reading if you don’t understand the stat which you clearly don’t.

Which is why you are totally wrong Coast. The value of a point of WAR in determining Free Agent value is based only on what the free agents signed for. For the FA that signed after the 2016 season that was 8.25 million. That is the value of a point of WAR currently. Looking at the FA that have signed so far this offseason, it will go up to over $9 million.

You’ll need to be more detailed in your explanation. Can you provide me a list of the players you’re citing. I showed the top 2016 position player free agents and their cost per 1 WAR and all of them were lower than $8.25 million. All the ones this year signed for considerably less.

Are you saying that was the amount of WAR they produced in 2017? I doubt that’s right but even if it is it shouldn’t be relevant. Teams aren’t paying for an injury filled season like Cespedes had. I’ve never heard a GM say, “Oh yeah, we’re planning on him getting injured and not giving us as much.”

I don’t think you understand what WAR is, and it’s foolish to think that it’s a set stat. Wins above replacement is a state that attempts to understand a players true value to a team by looking at defense, base running, and other aspects of the game. It’s an indication of a players worth, it’s no a reliable stat.

The Yankees have a payroll of $200mm. The Rays have about $100mm. The Marlins hope to be at $70mm. Doesnt that effect how much one WAR is worth for each team? Higher payroll teams can pay more. Lower payroll teams cannot.

The Marlins hope to be at $85-90 million. They are at $104 million currently.
The value of a point of WAR is determined by the WAR for the previous season and the AAV of contracts signed by free agents in any given offseason.

For example. the 2016 WAR of all the free agents signed last offseason and the AAV of their contracts equaled an $8.25 million value of a point of WAR for the 2017 season.

Because most of the FA players have been relievers so far and reliever WAR is very low, the value of a point of WAR so far this offseason is over $10 million. It will go down some, but we have seen inflation in the position players and starting pitchers signed so far, so it won’t go down much. Maybe to $9-9.5 million per point of WAR.

And if you want to sound smarter you might want to stop referring to it as a “triple slash” when it’s not… it’s a “slash” line. There are only 2 slashes, not 3. And for most people that actually look at these things there are several things that are weighted in to evaluating a player, not just 1 thing or 2 things or even 3 things. WAR, slash line, wRC+, OPS+… and yes even defensive metrics are all taken into account. The simple fact is Hosmer isn’t as bad as some make you believe but he’s also nowhere near as good as the Royals try to make it seem. He’s not a superior defender, but he’s not horrible. But the truth is that teams aren’t going to pay millions of extra dollars for a guy that can catch the ball at that position, much like they’re not going to pay millions of extra dollars just because he can smile nicely. If you really want to know why he’s not valued as much as the Royals think he should be… just look at his groundball rate and how bad it is over the years compared to most every other 1B in the league. Hoz can’t get the ball in the air and that’s why he’ll never be as good as most others at hitting it.

I have been saying this all along they should sign reed for a setup man and sign LoMo to play first
Trade for Colome to be the closer. And then if we can’t pull of a trade for Donaldson then leave Jedd at Third and Carpenter can be super utility

Here is thing on cards… Their names don’t come up until a deal is done or 95% done. Mo runs a tight FO with little to no leaks of info. Marlins trade stuff was because it was obvious and Mo made it public before the chase began.

Y’all are acting like this contract isn’t going to have an opt-out clause in it. Yeah he’ll sign a 7 year deal but there will be an opt-out after the 3rd or 4th year. Hosmer is still young enough that if he performs well then he could opt out. Whoever signs him might only be on the hook for a few seasons.

Players, even stars, usually decline in their early to mid-30’s. It’s impossible to know when that’ll be with each player. Trying to figure that out through age 34 is very risky. It proved that way with consistent guys like Choo, Ellsbury, Crawford, and Werth. Hosmer isn’t consistent.

One reason I think the market is slow isn’t the AAV players want but the length. Teams don’t want to go more than 3-4 years.

abgb123 and brucewayne are correct. Opt out is never team friendly. If Hosmer is playing well enough that he would actually want to opt out then his team would WANT to be on the hook for the back end of his contract.

A 7 year deal for 28 year old is not really THAT bad. That would end the contract around age 35. For comparison’s sake, Joey Votto’s contract runs through his age 40 season. Albert Pujols’s contract runs through his age 41 season, Miggy’s goes through 40. I am not saying Hosmer is as valuable as any of those guys when they signed. Nor am I saying that those three contract were not mistakes. What I am saying is that is what the market dictates.

Star players do not get paid their worth for the first few years of their careers, in exchange they get drastically overpaid for the last few years of their careers. It happens with every generation. Yes, Hosmer is likely to become an albatross near the end of the deal. But he is not going to be the only albatross this season, nor will he be the last one in history. It’s what the market dictates.

KC has a much better shot competing in their division than the Padres do in theirs. Cleveland is really the only definite competition. Minnesota could easily go either way. Detroit and Chicago are both rebuilding. It might make sense for KC to try and win the next couple of years before the bigger market White Sox and Tigers get better.

The Padres farm system is very much set up to be competitive within a couple of years. It’s not wrong to say their major league talent isn’t any good (it’s basically all utility guys acting as warm bodies, Wil Myers getting paid too much and Manuel Margot being solid), but the only way your major league talent gets good is from the farm system, and they have a loaded farm system.

Don’t blame the players blame the system it doesn’t compensate younger players the way it should so they get rewarded for past performance. As a jumping off point, Major league and minor league minimum salaries should be higher.

Don’t forget Joey Votto. These mid to small market teams committing a large portion of their payroll to one player – productive or not – kills their flexibility and forces them to constantly shop the bargain bin when other needs arise. Royals are foolish to even be in on Hosmer, but Boras is about as credible as a career used car salesman, so who knows what’s really going on.

Mauer has actually provided market value for his contract even after being moved to 1B. He has not provided surplus value, but the team didn’t lose in his case like the Tigers and Angels will on Cabrera and Pujol’s deals.

While the Braun contract isn’t looking great at this point, it has not even come close to bringing the Brewers to ruin. He’s playing less now, sure. When he plays, though, he’s still going to be pretty solid.

Dont confuse sentiment for ticket sales. Thats the business. The reality is small market teams cant sustain the payroll to compete consistantly, so fans like to see their favorite players and will pay to see them. Even the Yankees kept Jeter around past his usefulness to winning, just to sell tickets. If you dont sell tickets, payroll goes down even more. Real teams and Real GMs make decisions that effect the gate, as well as trying to build a winner.

Given the skyrocketing $$ attached to recent TV deals, the $’s from actual gate sales at the ballpark is a drop in the bucket compared to the $ generated through the broadcast rights. There is a relationship between having supportive fans and $, but the economics of it are much more about cable/satellite subscriber #’s because the team gets a cut of every subscriber. There is also advertising sales and other revenue streams connected to teams who own part or all of the channel broadcasting the games, etc.

For example, the Mets are buried in debt, but because SNY is a cashcow, it brings up the value of the franchise because of the revenue SNY can produce. If the Mets tried to sell to a new owner without including SNY, the sale value would be horrible because of the debt their crooked owners have piled onto the team.

You will see longer and longer contracts for superstars as teams become more strategic about the salary cap (excuse me … luxury tax threshold). If you have a superstar that is going to command $40MM/annually and say 10 years ($400MM total), the team may be inclined to do that same $400MM over 13 years. That would drop your cap figure to $31MM annually. The team and player know that the most likely ending for the contract is that player getting cut after year 10. Meanwhile, you structure the deal so that the player still gets paid his $400MM over the first 10 years and then tack on the last 3 years at league minimum. It’s salary deferral to manipulate the cap.

I agree. The new CBA changed how the Competitive Balance Tax (Luxury Tax) is calculated from what a player is being paid in a given year to the AAV of the contract. That gives the high revenue teams an incentive to sign players to a longer contract with a lower AAV. I would not be surprised to see the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, or Phillies sign Harper or Machado to 13-14 year deals.

I agree that the long excessively long term contracts should be considered a no-no. History of prior contracts have shown that. Especially with .500 pitchers and slightly above average every day players. Unless an opt out clause is in place mid way through the contract for both parties. A 4-5 year contract with option years and incentives would seem more viable for ownerships and the players. No trade clauses——That’s another problem all together.

I think he meant getting the compensatory draft picks for losing Hosmer in free agency; not trading him for picks. He declined his qualifying offer from KC, which means they will get a certain number of these comp picks depending on where he signs and for how much.

KC needs to look at their position realistically. They said this themselves after they won the World Series. All of their star players were hitting free agency at the same time. They are offering contracts with their heart, not their brain. Let Hosmer, Moose and Cain go. Trade Duffy to the Cardinals for some players on the major league roster and a MLB ready prospect pitcher and another lower prospect pitcher. Reload with current young major league talent, prospects from other teams and take the draft picks. The Cardinals have question marks beside Carpenter, Wong and Grichuk. A change of scenery for those players may work out well for both Missouri teams.

First off, I’m gonna say that I’m looking at this from a Royals fan perspective… but I actually like this. If they can atleast stay competitive while building the farm, they have a chance at a decent TV deal which is up in 2 or 3 years. If they sell the team and go back to losing 95 – 100 games, it may cost them more than 21m per year that Hosmer will. Hosmer is the face of the franchise, and I think will pay for himself over the next 7 years, and will allow the Royals to at least remain competitive instead of going straight back to the bottom.

I also don’t think signing Hosmer means you can’t rebuild too. We should still get a couple of comp picks for Moose and Cain, plus the supplemental and 1st round pick means 4 top 50ish picks this year. I like Pratto, MJ Melendez, Matias, and Lee. I don’t see much in the way of pitching but we have some solid prospects to build around.

sorry to break it to you but your farm system is one of the worst in the MLB. and since you don’t have a ton of chips left to trade the only way it’s going to get better is by losing a hundred games and getting top picks

That’s not breaking news. But what people outside of KC don’t remember is we have young talent either already in KC or in Omaha with multiple years of control that aren’t considered prospects. Bonifacio, Whit, Mondesi, Junis, Soler even. Mix in the few prospects we do have, the presumably 4 top 50 draft picks this year (5 if hosmer signs elsewhere), and be active in the international market, and you can maintain success.

Don’t remember? We all have access to the same information as you, FG/BR/BA/TradeRumors etc makes sure of that.
As for draft picks the most the royals can receive from the 3 players they extended QA’s to is 3 sandwich picks after the first round between the first competitive balance round the 1st and 2nd rounds, which although cool in mlb a guarantee that doesn’t make. Face it, the royals are screwed for the next 5 years but here’s and idea royals fans, stop your whining, you went to 2 WS and won one it’s all worth it, bask in the glory of being WS winners and watch as the youth grows in KC.

That depends on the team signing Hosmer. A team like the Phillies, Padres, or Twins that have $80-100 million in payroll flexibility could sign him and continue their rebuild. The Royals, Marlins or Rays that are in a place where they need to lower payroll would have a hard time continuing their rebuild if they signed Hosmer.

Yeah I definitely see what you’re saying. But honestly after growing up watching the Royals lose 100 games 3 years in a row and just being horrible. Being mediocre for a little while isn’t the worst thing.

Let me get this straight. The “Small Market” Royals are willing to spend 147 million on the first baseman who they got at least six years out of, and him along with guys like Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas are free agents right now. They finally have a chance to say good bye. But no, that’s not okay. They’d rather spend 147 million, a huge risk on a first baseman, when they should just rebuild? Got it.

Exactly! You’d think they learned when they re-signed Gordon. I don’t see many first basemen that are worthy of this type of cash in today’s market. In my opinion first base is the easiest position on the diamond to fill.

The only reason I can see it is if they really consider him a franchise player. As a Giants fan, I get not wanting to lose that. I want to see Buster Posey retire having only played for the Giants. It’s not often players do that anymore. Is Hosmer considered that in KC?

He didn’t say 1B was easy to play. He said it was an easy position to fill. Big slow power hitters who can’t play defense are very plentiful and are usually put at 1B, or DH. Defensive value at 1B has always been undervalued for that reason.

For that kind of money the Cardinals will stay out of it I hope. Have to ask yourself this question. If he is worth that kind of money why is it only two teams that are in rebuild mode interested in him? I see this as a bad contract and most all Gms don’t want anything to do with it.

Ill take hosmer at 21 million and what he brings over whatever fringe mlb guy the royals will get with the 30 something pick they will get for him. Of course i also think his defensive metrics are way off from his actual abilities. In fact until they start trying to measure ability to scoop throws then the metrics will be off. Its similar to catching metrics before pitch framing.

It’s not $21MM. It’s closer to $140MM. And I would absolutely take the over on a first round pick producing more surplus value than Hosmer over the life of his contract. The most likely outcome is that Hosmer produces negative value while the pick either produces marginal value or no value.

As for scoops – great article over at Fangraphs that covers this exact topic. Long and short – elite scoopers save maybe a few runs a year vs average scoopers. Hosmer’s problem isn’t actually fielding or scooping. He’s fine in both areas. It’s his range. His negative value in range more than off-sets his positive defensive attributes. Hosmer is fine when it comes to routine plays but adds virtually nothing on tough defensive plays. I’d recommend heading over to Fangraphs to check out his Inside Edge and Advanced Fielding sections.

The difference between “elite scoopers” and the bottom was 27 outs in 2017, 34 vs 7. How many runs is that? I don’t know.
Since the scoop stat only includes balls in the dirt, how many outs are there in corralling offline throws and turning them into outs by tagging the runner. One year when he was an Oriole, Will Clark tagged out 11 players on plays that took him off the bag.

Since we are talking about Hosmer, let’s look at his 2017 scoops. He had 21 of his 34 total scoops with men in scoring position. They don’t list how many outs there were or if there were one or two baserunners, so let’s go with the lower run expectancy for a single. That means each of those plays Hosmer made an out on had a 1.10 run expectancy if the out is not made. so Hosmer saved 23.1 runs on those plays. That does not include runs saved on any subsequent at bats with men on base.

23.1 runs is a tick under 6 wins or a 5 win difference from the 1B with the fewest scoops and 3 wins better than the average number of scoops. That also does not include the value of the other 13 scoops.

That seems much more reasonable than 0.3.
Add the extra outs from balls that were not in the dirt and things like starting DP and PO overall and you have to say that 1B is much more than the 100-150 balls in play they handle per season.

Which would be a plus for whoever signs him. It is not the first few 2-3 seasons (In this case, Hosmer’s age 28-30 seasons) that are a problem on 6+ year deals for position players, it the last 3-4. So if he performs at a high enough level that he can opt out, the team that signs him won’t be on the hook for those seasons when he is in decline.

It has been explained to you multiple times that an opt out is NEVER a positive for the team. If Hosmer is playing well he just re-enters free agency. If he sucks he just sticks to the existing contract. An opt out eliminates all of the upside in the contract while eliminating none of the downside.
Anyway, if the Padres we’re to sign Hosmer, I imagine they would want him for the long-haul, not to have him leave right when they are on the cusp of contending.

An opt out does not eliminate the positive value a team received before the opt out, and like ARods contract, if the team lets him leave, (NYY chose to pay him more) they save the decline on the back end.

Of course it does. You pay a player anticipating production. If he produces, he opts out, and asks for more. If he doesn’t, the team gets stuck with a bad contract with nothing likely but declining years.

WestCoast, I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said about the negatives with a player opt-out, but I would actually be surprised if Hosmer got one. At age 28, the opt out would likely come between ages 31-33. Probably not a great time to hit free agency and ask for a better AAV on a multi-year deal as a player with limited power.

In today’s climate, it is common for free agents as young as Hosmer to want an opt out in their contract because they figure they got one more good contract in them. I agree tho that the Padres likely won’t give him one because if they are gonna sign him, they want him for the long haul, not to just have him leave when the team is on the cusp of contending.

“The logic of opt-out clauses for the club escapes me,” Manfred told FOX Sports on Thursday night. “You make an eight-year agreement with a player. He plays well, and he opts out after three. You either pay the player again or you lose him.

“Conversely, if the player performs poorly, he doesn’t opt out and gets the benefit of the eight-year agreement. That doesn’t strike me as a very good deal. Personally, I don’t see the logic of it. But clubs do what they do.” – MLB Commissioner Manfred

Thinking an opt out is good is just using post hoc ergo propter hoc to create a narrative based on non existent data from the future, Players aren’t in the business of “taking on for the team” financially, they wont opt out of a contract they cant at least duplicate. That would be like . quitting your 45,000 a year job to work part time at burger king,

I don’t care what Cameron has to say when simple business logic tells a different story.

The value of a player is in what he is paid vs what he produces.

There is no value in a contract after age 30, or maybe age 31. Players begin to decline in their age 30 season. They decline in a predictable manner and there are few position players that ever produce even 2 WAR in their age 35 and older seasons. Only 3 did last year and all 3 of those were less than 1/2 of their peaks seasons. In 2 of the 3 cases, it was 1/3 of their peak at age 27-29. All 3 peaked in that age range. At age 37, the age Stanton will be in 2027, no one had a positive WAR last season.

If the opt-out is at 30-31 or older, then say buh-bye and take the best that player had to offer and the surplus value the 1st few years of these long-term deals offer a team. You win in that case even if you get nothing in return for him when he walks, because you are not paying the majority of the money in their contract for declining production.

If you keep him for the declining years, then you are not getting surplus value on those years. You lose.

Whether he walks or you trade him just before the opt-out, you win when you don’t have to pay for years where you get less value than you pay out.

“There is something about these opt-outs that I don’t think has been mentioned often enough. Yes, they’re obviously a tremendous financial benefit for the player. But they’re also pretty, pretty, pretty good for the wealthy teams. If you’re the Cubs or the Red Sox, you’re absolutely thrilled if Jason Heyward and David Price play terrifically in their first three seasons, because that means you’re getting your money’s worth and you’re probably winning baseball games.

But everybody knows the risky thing about these contracts is the so-called out years. So would smart organizations like the Cubs and Red Sox be terribly disappointed if Heyward and Price let someone else pay the freight down the road? Leaving the clubs with a sudden windfall of sorts, and the attendant flexibility?

No, you don’t win in that situation because you lose a player who you have signed for below market value. Or if you really don’t wanna be on the hook for the back end of his contract, he would at least become a valuable trade chip if he didn’t have the opt out and continued to produce.

No, they aren’t good for the wealthy teams. They would still be getting their money’s worth and winning games if those players played well and didn’t have opt-outs. And they would still be able to get out from under the out years and have another someone else pay the freight down the road by TRADING THE PLAYER! If the player is playing well enough that he would want to opt out, they would be able to trade him without paying any of his contract and possibly get back a nice prospect in return. Don’t troll and say “They won’t be able to trade those guys without eating salary” because if that is the case the player isn’t going to opt out in the first place.

Your opinion doesn’t stack up and others see it too. I know that now that I have disagreed with you, you are probably going to bust out all of your alt accounts and downvote me into oblivion. Get a life.

Ryan, You are the one that needs to get a life. I have one account, this one. If you are getting downvoted, its because people don’t like you and don’t agree with you. Maybe it is because you chose to insult people and call them names so often. Maybe it is because you are almost always wrong. Either way, you need to look in the mirror.

Bruh, you can give it a rest. It is well known on here that you have multiple accounts and use them to downvote people you don’t agree with. It’s a dead giveaway when it’s the exact same number on every one of my comments. I’d have so much more respect for you if you just came out and admitted it.
You’re one to talk saying I am almost always wrong. You’ve been wrong multiple times this year but I generally just let it go unless you insist on being a tool. You have been given countless opportunities on this thread to put down the shovel but instead, you keep digging. It’s abundantly clear that you aren’t interested in considering viewpoints that don’t match your own. Everyone on this thread save for you and stymeedone realizes that the opt out is only player friendly so I’d suggest you put down the shovel now.

Rob Neyer, Ken Rosenthal over at the Athletic, Tom Verducci, and Peter Gammons and a number of other well respected writers don’t agree with you about this point either. Apparently, Dave Cameron does so you will take his opinion. That’s ok. Believe what you want.

When it comes to claiming I have duplicate accounts, that is the pot calling the kettle black. Whenever you are on, I can be guaranteed that everything I say will have the exact same number of downvotes within minutes. When you are not on, sometimes there are more upvotes, sometimes there are more downvotes, but its never exactly the same.

There’s really no agreeing or disagreeing. I have already explained why an opt out is either objectively bad or has no effect in pretty much all possible situations. The only scenario in which the team benefits is if the player thinks he is worth more than whatever is left on the contract but all 30 GM’s disagree. If that happens, he needs to fire his agent.
Your comments have varying numbers of up and down votes. It’s too obvious what you are doing when literally every comment I post gets three downvotes along with a response from you at the same time. You’re too much of a coward to even admit that you downvote people’s comments at all.

Oh and back to Heyward and Price. There is essentially no chance that either one of them opts out, further proving my point that if a player is playing at a level where his team would want him to opt out, he’s not going to. The same will be true with Stanton. His contract is for 10 years if the Yankees would prefer 3 years and 3 years if the Yankees would prefer 10 years.

I did explain it. Your failure to understand it is your problem, not mine. Why would the Yankees want to lose a MVP candidate who they have signed for below market value? Even if they want to get off the hook for the back end of his contract he would at least figure to draw some trade interest.
Considering the fact that Walt Jocketty, Dan Duquette and Michael Hill exist, you’ll have to forgive me for not caring what some GM’s think.
No you don’t.

Do owner’s and GM’s never learn? We the amateurs see the problem for whomever signs him before it even happens and the professionals don’t? In one column list all the seven year contracts that worked for the team, and in the other all the seven year contracts that did not. No need to even put in players names for this visual. Hosmer is not the missing link to put your team over. the top. Run Forrest Run!

Not to make an obvious point, but if these aren’t just rumors floated to drive the price up, it tells you a lot about the economic state of baseball. Two small/midmarket teams offering $20M+ per year long term to a player who isn’t a first-rank star even at his best.

I don’t know about you guys, but when I think of the best 1st basemen in the league, Hosmer is nowhere near the top. Paying him that kind of money will be a regretful move especially for a team that isn’t ready to win right away. They will be ready to win when he is going into the down years of the contract. Makes no sense to me for either the Padres or the Royals to sign him.

People outside of KC have to realize the value Hosmer has to the Royals organization and to the city. Whether that’s sentimental or not – it does have significant value. How to quantify that – who knows.
And I know this discussion about Hosmers defense will be never ending. But as someone who rarely misses a Royals inning – the metrics just aren’t correct. He is an above average defender at worst.

This isn’t 2012. The Royals have had payrolls over $130 mil the past 2 seasons.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the contract is a good idea, but with an owner that has started paying for winning baseball, and a new TV deal coming up – a $20 mil per year player does not necessarily hamstring the Royals.

That’s a ton of money considering Royals are entering a rebuild. They should save that money for short term contracts as they wait for some of their prospects to debut in the majors. I know their farm system isn’t good but they have some players who are close to making their debut in the majors. Give them experience, use the extra draft picks wisely, and maybe you’ll end up drafting a future star in the making

The Royals cyclical tear down is not as constant as the Athletics, but you can still count on it like the sun rising in the East, only it lasts far longer. They do not have the money to keep their stars, or pro longed success. The only long contracts they can afford to make, are for prospect extensions (like the Indians 90’s, and Royals 70’s used to give) at discount levels, and even that is gambling for them. They have to offer them to the right people, at right levels, or they cripple themselves financially from building the pieces to compliment those contracts. It is the sad truth, and something a Yankee fan would never admit exists for other teams. In the world of roughly 27 other teams, making mistakes all over your roster means doom, keeping your stars is actually crippling to building a winning team, success is measured in clumps of 2 to 3 years before rebuilds that drop you out of contention, buying a minor league system full of new prospects after draining it in trades for all stars is impossible, and spending an extra 20 to 30 million at the trade deadline is common place.

Couldn’t have said it better myself. I can honestly say that nearly 1/3 of the players in MLB are actually AAA talent level, and probably 5 or more of the teams aren’t even viable as real competitors on a yearly basis, let alone on a decade basis. So many flaws in the current model, outside of the money they did it for. This can be said about all the major sports at this point. A guy in the industry speaking candidly told me some basic truths in his view. 1) Any team in MLB can be bad enough, long enough, to become good enough to compete eventually only to upset the cart for those rationally talking about the overextension of teams in the league. 2) None of those teams involved in the overextension debate have the revenue to keep those teams together if they ever do become good enough to contend. 3) Most of the lower level tier teams have rosters filled with players that should not be on a MLB roster, and those that draft/internationally sign, develop and reap the rewards for their work are simply incubation teams for big market teams to fix their holes. 4) the league will expand further despite the obvious problems.

Behold free agency off season. A place and time where fantasy becomes reality. Multiple 7 year deals, sounds like teams are lining up. They are not. The bidding at 7 years is most likely the Padres, and perhaps, maybe, possibly, not likely, but only the Royals. Rumors that the Royals are out bidding the Padres is probably, most likely, complete crap. I would venture to guess there are probably another 4 or 5 teams total coming in at about 5 years, but no longer then that. Interesting how when the Red Sox were involved you only heard about the Padres, Sox, and Cardinals in the Wings. Now that the best viable option for a bidding war is gone, all of a sudden MULTIPLE offers are on the table, at what the best bidder was unwilling to do. As usual, this is probably one team bidding against itself at the asking price, and half a dozen teams seeing if the asking price will drop to something in line with reasonable for a player like Hosmer.

Does anybody read the article before commenting? Many here saying these 7 year contracts are all crap made up by Boras, but in the article it says that Nightengale confirmed the legnth of the contracts with both teams. I agree this seems an outragous offer for a second or third tier 1B, but it seems at least the Royals and Padres have money burning a hole in their pockets.

Well I read it again just like you said, the the reports are from Nightengale speaking with “sources close to Hosmer”. Should we trust these “sources” which may be his Mom and Dad for all we know. How about quotes directly from the teams involved?
I would venture a guess, that the sources close to Hosmer would like nothing better than to artificially increase any offer he receives just to up the bidding on this guy who I agree is definitely over-valued.
And, I’m wondering since when is USA Today a good source for sports rumors?

People are looking at this like the interests of Boras, and Hosmer are somehow separate. A bidding war requires bidders, and those bidders need to think that they are actually bidding against other bidders if you want what you are asking for. Hosmer’s (rep’s) people have every incentive to pitch the same malarkey that Boras is. Honestly, what are they going to say? “Only one team is close to the asking price, and we do not what to end up there.”.

Are you for real? The second paragraph under 8:25 am ends with “Notably, Nightengale says he was able to confirm the length of the proposed contract terms with both organizations.” This clearly states that Nightengale confirmed with the TEAMS that they have 7 year offers on the table. Again, that is the teams, not Hosmer’s camp or his friends or whoever else you have made up in your head while reading this. Sorry if I come across rough here, but I don’t know how else to show you what you haven’t been able to comprehend in at least two reads of the written story above.

Please don’t do this Padres. Hopefully this is just Boras being Boras, but all that money for Hosmer is a very bad idea. They need to just let the rebuild play out because they’re going to regret giving out a contract like this.

So continue to have a $35 mil payroll for the next 4-6 years while all of our minor leaguers are on minimum salaries? Might as well have some expensive vets to help mold the team and have guaranteed solid players while still having a low payroll.

Of course, they will have to sign some free agents when they feel they can start legitimately contending. I’m just saying that signing Hosmer now is a bad idea. It would be better to wait until next year to sign a higher-caliber free agent than to give Hosmer all this money now and have it come back to bite them, especially given his inconsistency.

Nightengale must get a cut from Boras. The Cardinals say they have not made an offer. The Red Sox, Dodgers, and Yankees are out. The only teams that have confirmed they have made an offer are the Padres and the Royals and inside sources there have reported 5 and 6 year offers.

Offered 7 but seeking 8 or 9? That’s called greed, my friends. Look, I’m all for get what you can, but with that kind of wealth, just go where you want to play and don’t worry about the years and dollars. I mean, once you’re at 7/140 or whatever you really can’t go wrong.

You’re exactly right but you won’t get 10% of the commenters to agree with it here. That’s because they really don’t understand how much money $140 million is.

People that make $100,000/yr at their job make less than $5 million over the course of their entire career.
People that make $300,000/yr ( most of us don’t know 10 people who make that much)…. make about $13 million in their entire life.

$140 million is such an absurd amount of money….. that it surely guarantees that his grandchildren will never have to work. Let that sink in for a few minutes……. and then tell me that he should hold out for more money.

If I was Preller and wanted Hosmer and Boras, etc are saying that there are multiple offers of 9 figures, then I would offer less and see where it goes. The Padres shouldn’t go after him, but also shouldn’t be bidding against themselves. Call his bluff. You don’t get him, you save that 2nd round pick and move on.

The real question here is why would KC or SD be so interested in giving out a huge contract like this when they are seemingly not at the point of being legitimate contenders? It seems extremely short-sighted to me. It’s like they decided at some point that they have to commit to a rebuilding process, but way too far before it could reach fruition, they randomly decided to throw a grenade into their plans. Hosmer has been a relatively decent player, but he’s not a superstar you rebuild around and make the highest paid player in franchise history, particularly when you don’t have the supporting cast in place around him. It’s easy to expect this deal to turn out poorly, the majority of long-term $100M+ FA deals have blown up on teams and it’s not long after that they are looking to deal the guy away for salary relief and wind up paying the other team to take the contract. I have little doubt that will eventually be the case if KC or SD signs him.

The Padres are mid-way into their rebuild. The logic is start a winning culture. Get some vets in to help with the wave of talent coming up each year. Over the next 3-4 year, there will be a few rookies coming up each season and it can only help to have a seasoned veteran that has been to the World Series on the roster. What it also shows to me is that they are losing faith in Will Meyers as someone for the younger guys to look up to. If they can get a Hosmer, that would help, even though I’m not really excited about the commitment in money and years.

Finally someone gets it. You can’t just field a bunch of unproven rooks. $20 mil per isn’t a huge amount considering setup men are getting $9. He’s a young veteran player w intangibles. If he’s declining over the last 3 years, you trade him if need be and eat $20-$30 mil. Sign Yelich, trade Hand and sign a Keuchel next year to anchor the young team. We can replace half of the prospects from Yelich w Hand haul.
Payroll will be under $100 mil and expiring salary dumps will be gone after the next. Myers can only improve from last year as long as he stays healthy, and Hosmer will take pressure off Wil.

1: hes a clubhouse leader by all reports
2: hes still young at 28 and plays a position that is easier on the body, so he should age better than most
3: plays 150 games per year and has never had a major injury
4: has knocked in 90+ runs 3 years in a row even though he hits the ball on the ground a lot (because he can hit with RISP AKA clutch performer)
5: and is a perennial Gold Glover (why do we keep saying his defense is terrible?)
6: is an exciting player than fans pay to come see

it can be interpreted or valued differently from person to person, but none of the above is straight wrong. 7/$130-140 range seems right at market value to me

Hosmer plays the position that is easiest to fill. There is a glut of 1B on the market.

Bonds won a Gold Glove in a year he led MLB in errors. Palmiero won a Gold Glove in a year he played 28 games at 1B. Gold Gloves are not a measure of defense.

What does RBI have to do with individual performance? Nothing. Now if you said that Hosmer knocked in 16.9% of baserunners and that he was below the league average of 17.4% in that regard then I would say that the stat you were referring to mattered. RBI’s mean nothing taken out of that context.

Other than the top 5 or so players in the league like Kershaw, Scherzer, Trout, and Stanton, no one pays to see individual players. They pay to see winning teams. Hosmer’s 2 WAR doesn’t place him in that stratosphere.

Obviously, you have forgotten what it is to be a fan. Fans go to see their favorite player, whether its Scherzer, or Ryan Zimmerman. When you live in Milwaukee, or Cincinnati, or KC, or San Diego, or Tampa, or Minnesota, or Toronto, like most paying fans, you find a favorite on your hometown team and root for them, even if your team cant win every year (because realistically, they cant). That player may not be a top 5 player, nor does it need to be. Front runners only root for the team when its winning. Fans pay for tickets in the down years. Fans are the target audience of the teams. They sustain the teams until the window opens. If appeasing real fans makes the front runners have to wait longer… oh well.

Precisely. All these keyboard GM’s sure seem to know more than a real GM. Regardless if you respect Preller, The Cards are well ran and they are even in on him and obviously in the ballpark of the other offers around they would have bowed out a while ago.

idkmybffjill…….
Here’s some stats for you….. they will shed a different light on Hosmer.

Hosmer vs Wil Myers
If you take their career numbers and extrapolate Myers out to the same number of AB’s……He has way more power and speed…..while Hosmer hits for a higher average. Very similar players. Myers just signed a 6/$83 Million contract last January. He’s been a 28/28 and a 30/20 player the last 2 years.
Hosmer has been a 25/5 and a 25/6 player.
They are the same defensively.
Why is Hosmer worth twice as much money?????????

Now look up Todd Frazier. Compare the stats for 2017 for each of them and you’ll find them to be very similar also.
Frazier again, has more power. Hosmer a higher average. Many stats the same.
Frazier went 40/15 in 2016 and 27/4 in ’17. Still better than Hosmer
Frazier is 3 years older than Hosmer, but is only looking for 3/$36-39….1/4 of what Hosmer wants.

Just doesn’t add up. Hosmer is not worth 7/$160 Million, when you compare him to what else is available. Morrison, Duda, Lind, Frazier.

Take away hosmers batting average and players like fraizer make him look like a real rip off for the money he is getting. If Morrison repeats last year or close to it hosmers deal will look even worse. Despite having a career year hosmers ops was under 900

I don’t know why anyone would be really worried about the opinion of people here. Especially baseball execs. 95% of the people around here said that KC would be a dumpster fire for the next ten years when they traded Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi for James Shields. 2 years later, they were in the World Series and the next year they won it. That worked out pretty well for them, didn’t it? Hosmer could become a Chris Davis albatross OR he could become the 2018 AL (or NL) MVP. or anything in between.

I think it is time that people here stop speaking of this stuff like it is dogma and just admit it is all a guessing game. Even though it is extremely educated guessing, it is still just guessing.

I don’t disagree with your thesis. However, I see the 2015 Royals as an outlier rather than the norm. As a team they accrued 37.1 f-WAR, which translates to 84.8 wins. They definitely benefited from playing in a weak division, and got hot at the right time. Good for them. But I don’t see it as a model of consistency.

Their bullpen, which included Wade Davis. Acquired in the trade that would doom them for years. Besides, history does not care how they did it or how weak their division was in both years. History only cares about results and the results say the Royals won the World Series in 2015.

The AL Central is almost always going to be the weakest division in baseball due to there being an abundance of small market teams. Cleveland, Detroit, KC, and Minnesota are all small market. Even the White Sox could be argued as a small market team. The Royals in 2015 didn’t just benefit from getting “hot at the right time,” they were easily among the best teams in baseball that season. Even if they didn’t win games the way the numbers like.

The point is that that division is almost always winnable (or at least 2nd place) for anyone, so it really could be a model of consistency for the AL Central. It wouldn’t work in the AL East or the NL West or really any other division just because the competition is much stiffer, but it could work for KC.

Besides, if 37.1 WAR is equivalent to only 84 wins, then how did they win 95? It’s not necessarily an exception, it means that the stat is not meant to be as literal as people have taken it.

Bad teams shouldn’t offer huge contracts to non elite talent. Whoever signs his wr will regret this deal. As for Hosmer he might as well should go to the pads as they have better potential in the near future than the royals right now

Seven year contracts to 28 year olds who played 162 games and had a career best BA and WAR are not likely to bring the kind of value the owners and fans are clamoring for. I would love to see an analysis of all year 5+ yr contracts signed by 28 year olds. What proportion of these guys even averaged more than 110 games played after the age 31 season? .I’d also love to see data on walk-year stats compared to year-after walk-year stats.. Optimism is the engine of capitalism and no one is more optimistic than Scott Boras. What a predatory marketing genius.

I don’t get why either club would want Hosmer. If KC couldn’t contend last season with Cain, Moose, and Hosmer, why bring back just one at an enormous rate and know that you’re not going to contend or get a compensation pick to aid a thin farm?

San Diego isn’t going to contend, either, and Myers couldn’t stay healthy in the outfield. Why commit big dollars to a position you already have covered? Even if you were bent on moving Myers to RF, there’s still a ton of cheaper options available and many more valuable free agents available next offseason in areas of greater need that the same dough could be better spent on.

No one goes to baseball games to see specific players, they go to see the team. Approx zero people are going to be sitting around in KC going “Hmm, should I go to a Royals game? Is Hosmer still on the team? No? Then, no, not interested anymore.”

KC is litteraly barely building up their team. They lost the majority of their talent to FA, they don’t have much talent up in the majors, and their farm system sucks. Meanwhile the Padres already have at least some major league ready players and a stacked farm system. So I don’t see why he would sign with KC. He has a better chance on at least having a winning season with the Padres than with the Royals.

They have a top 3 system that has already graduated Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Luis Perdomo, Dinelson Lamet and Austin Hedges. Plus, they have Brad Hand on a completely team friendly deal that will benefit them in a trade or to hold onto.

They’re likely to finish in last place this year, but they are progressing nicely.

You do realize I said when he was on his prime, right? And he’s 38, not 42. Pujols started his prime the moment he joined the majors (21) until the age of 32 when he started to show lack of contact and power compared to when he was younger. Hosmer is 28 years young, played for seven seasons, with two 25 HR seasons and two seasons with .300 BA. At that age, Pujols had 32+ HR hit in every single season and .312 BA or higher. So it’s not even fair you’re comparing Pujols and Hosmer because Pujols is no doubter better than Hosmer

I’m sorry, I can’t take you seriously. Albert Pujols was 32 when he signed with the Angels and no, he is not older than he claims to be. You don’t even have evidence to back up your clam, you’re just making stuff up. You can litteraly go online and search up Albert Pujols age and MOST will tell you he is 37. I said most because I’m sure there’s someone out there that will say otherwise just to troll people like you. What’s next? Is Ichiro actually 50 years old now?

noting that Hosmer is younger than the bulk of free agents that have received contracts of seven or more years in length.

Scott Boras is a known ‘extortionist’ and is looking to shakedown some silly MLB owner
I hope they stand up to him and face the peril and tell him no!!!
Then Hosmer would have to sign with the London Silly Nannies!

I disagree, as much as I HATE Boras, he is just doing his job. Nightengale on the other hand is NEVER right, even his confirmations of offers are now being confirmed as incorrect. The guy cant tell which way is up yet for some reason people still listen to him. I don’t get it.

will somebody just sign a contract…with some team ….i think the cards sign hosmer,,,,its a safe bet he doesnt want to sign withe the padres……. all teams should just collude and tell boros to kiss off…….borass is a pain in the ass…….

You’re comparing trade talks with FA. In FA you have are free to sign with whoever you want for whatever amount of money you want. When is comes to trades you have more limited control. You can’t choose who you can get traded to, just like Stantoon wanted to get traded to LA. Everyone knew Giancarlo wanted to leave Miami the moment Jeter and Sherman purchased the Marlins because he wanted to win. His main goal was to leave to LA, but because the Dodgers weren’t that interested he didn’t have many options. He either stayed with the Marlins or moved to some other team that was willing to eat a majority of his salary and will give him a chance to win until he has the chance to out put his contract. The Giants had a chance because they were the closets he was gonna get to LA and because they were willing to eat a chunk of his salary and the Cardinals haven’t had a bad season since last year. In this case, we don’t know Hosmers motivations. If he wanted to be a Royal for the rest of his life he would’ve signed an extension, so it’s not loyalty. I’m sure it’s money and the lack of interest from other teams unless Boras lowers down the price so other teams can get in the race.