In Data we trust: not just a clever tag line

The term “In God We Trust” was first printed on paper currency in 1956 and first appeared on US coins in 1864. Although the phrase is widely accepted to be the official motto of the United States, a variation of the phrase (In Data we trust) can quite aptly describe the implications of the bitcoin network.

Before I delve deeper, let’s have a quick 101 on money supply. The total money supply in the economy has direct implications on inflationary and deflationary pressures in the economy. This is why the US Treasury can’t simply “print more money” to pay off its debts – a drastic increase in money supply would cause hyperinflation and has ruined a number of economies in history.

Interestingly, it’s not just irresponsible policy that can lead to hyperinflation. By the end of 1780, Continental Currency (the precursor to the US Dollar) lost a majority of its face value due to rampant counterfeiting by the British who used it as a tactic to weaken the revolutionaries of the “Thirteen Colonies”. This lead to the Coinage Act of 1792 which mandated a certain amount of gold and sliver in coins to prevent counterfeiting.

The total money supply in an economy is often referred to as M1. M1 refers to both money created by the central bank (the monetary base) and money created by commercial banks. The money created by commercial banks (fractional reserve banking) is the money created through lending and is a function of the monetary base and liquidity reserve requirements.

For example, the government might print $10,000 and circulates it to banks. Total M1 is now $10,000. At the same time, the government has a 1% mandatory liquidity reserve ratio for all banks. Which basically means for every $100 that a bank lends out, it only has to have $1 in reserves. So for each dollar created by the government, the banks can lend out $100. This is referred to as the Money Multiplier. So in our example, each $1 in the $10,000 can be lent out 100 times making the total M1 ($10,000 * $100) = $1,000,000.

Now, back to data. By design, the total amount of bitcoin created is strictly regulated and predictable through it’s algorithm. Below shows a chart of growth in bitcoin’s monetary base.

The monetary base of bitcoin is the money created through “mining” (mining is the process through which money is created in the bitcoin system – a process worthy of a seperate blog post).

In our original M1 equation, we had two relative unknowns i.e. we didn’t know how much money the central bank will create and we didn’t know how much money banks will lend out.

Bitcoin at least solves the first part of the equation – we know exactly how much bitcoin is going to be created in the next 100 years.

Why is this important? Risk & uncertainty are kryptonite for commerce. In growing and developing economies the risk of the central bank exercising irresponsible monetary policy and printing money is high which significantly increases a merchant’s risk of conducting business in the local market.

If a global merchant conducts business in a developing economy through bitcoin, the exchange rate and currency risk are completely mitigated. Additionally, most traditional banks charge higher fees for foreign transactions to act as an “insurance policy” against the risks outlined above. Bitcoin doesn’t need to charge these exorbitant transaction fees.

There are also implications for developed economies. The Fed holds 8 regularly scheduled meetings each year where each word is analyzed by the Bloombergs and CNBCs of the world looking for hints for changes in monetary policy. The decisions which the Fed makes has far reaching implications on borrowing rates, financial models and inflation. If some of the decisions the Fed makes were known in advance, some uncertainty would be moved out of the system. As an example, the monetary base is one of the factors which are affected by the Fed.

So, what does this mean? Is the Fed going to go away? No. Even if the whole world transitioned to bitcoin we would still need a regulatory authority to manage issues such as fractional reserve banking (second part of the M1 equation mentioned above). Bitcoin does not have a way to regulate irresponsible lending. But perhaps, that might be the next breakthrough in the bitcoin network?

So, in Data we trust to provide a steady predictable monetary base to conduct commerce creating marketplaces and use cases previously thought impossible with centralized constructs of monetary policy. Data has replaced trust in certain instances. Previously we “trusted” the US Government to exercise responsible monetary policy. Now, it’s Data that ensures responsible monetary policy.

P.S. If you’re curious, below is a chart showing the growth in M1 in the US from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

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2 thoughts on “In Data we trust: not just a clever tag line”

BTC mitigates exchange rate risks but I think there is currency risk in the volatility we’ve seen so far.

As for irresponsible lending, I think BTC mitigates that by being deflationary. Why would anyone lend bitcoin, a deflationary currency? I can’t imagine what that would look like. I don’t think it would be lent at negative interest rate (the lender loses money), so rational lenders shouldn’t lend, because deflation is like an interest payment on the currency they hold. The reason people lend/invest USD is because they have to beat inflation and get a return just to avoid falling backward each year, but if the USD had a positive annual return, I imagine it would become unattractive to lend.

You’ve hit on two interesting points. Bitcoin currency volatility and bitcoin lending. I was planning on researching on both and writing more informative blog posts in the future.

For currency volatility my hypothesis is that Bitcion, by design, was supposed to have high volatility during the early stages which stabilizes as more participants AND quantity of bitcoin increases on its decentralized networks. It’s like if you have 2 stocks of share but 5 potential buyers – the activities of the buyers will cause price of that stock to fluctuate wildly.

Bitcoin lending – I’m not sure how it works. But I did find a couple of websites that claim to “lend bitcoin”. I would love to do a deep dive on what their business model is. An example is btcjam.com.