COVID-19 Resources and Information

It’s *not* “just the flu”

A number of friends and acquaintances keep referring to COVID-19 (the newest corona-virus) as “just the flu.”

Many are showing 5-12 months worth of seasonal flu data to state that it’s more dangerous and lethal than COVID-19.

While it’s true that the flu has killed more people to date, the important thing to realize is that COVID-19 is just getting started in the U.S.

It’s a bit disingenuous to compare a year’s worth of data (see: deaths) from something we know about (the seasonal flu) to something that’s just now starting to proliferate (COVID-19). Let’s compare again after a calendar year for more accurate representation.

There’s a reason that universities, full of really smart people and researchers, are shutting down campuses and leading health institutions already have many non-essential employees working from home. These entities aren’t doing this because of a “hoax” or media hype. [Update 3/11: The remainder of the NBA season is cancelled.]

There’s still a lot we don’t know about COVID-19 and it’s possible likely we’re minimizing the risk by comparing it to the flu.

What we do know from infectious disease experts is that it’s more contagious than the flu, it’s very likely that it’s more deadly than the flu, and that we’re unlikely to have a vaccine for another 18 months.

It’s also easy for young, healthy people to not worry too much because it’s unlikely to affect us much more than the common cold, but giving it to someone who is older, has another underlying chronic condition (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, etc.) and/or is immune compromised could be deadly.

Be Prepared

A lot of the people comparing COVID-19 to the flu are making fun of people for over-reacting or inducing panic.

On that note, here’s a quote from infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm:

“My job isn’t to scare you out of your wits, it’s to scare you into your wits.”

Social distancing is not panic.

It enables us to spread out the impact of the disease such that it doesn’t overwhelm our healthcare system. South Korea seems to be doing this well. Italy, on the other hand, is a disaster. They’re having to choose who to intubate because they don’t have enough artificial ventilator equipment.

Things You Can Personally Do:

Prepare; don’t panic

Practice safe hygiene

Be leery of misinformation

Do not be a racist asshole

Kyra David Woodward has crafted a letter to her family and loved ones to emphasize preparedness for COVID-19, especially for those over 60. She’s invited you to plagiarize and share as you deem necessary. It’s an informed approach you should absolutely borrow.

Why social distancing is so critical and requires an attitude of altruism

The fact that infectious disease experts believe the U.S. missed its window for containment

The implications of overwhelm to local hospital systems including unnecessary deaths from treatable pathophysiology

Commentary and Articles

Below are some thoughtful threads and information that I’ve encountered. I will continue to update (and vet) this list as I encounter new information.

Social Distancing

Here is the thing to understand about flattening the curve. It only works if we take necessary measures before they seem necessary. And if it works, people will think we over-reacted. We have to be willing to look like we over-reacted. — Kaila Colbin

Published in the leading global health journal – take home message is that social distancing and isolation of infected individuals can mitigate the impact of the virus. Good discussion on incubation time, duration of infectivity, and critical importance of controlling the rate of transmission (R0).

Closing schools has costs, such as health care workers having to stay home and kids missing subsidized lunches

Studies show that school closures are one of the most beneficial ‘non-pharmaceutical interventions’ that can be employed, more effective even than reactive quarantines or banning of public gatherings

An inventive 2007 study by @HowardMarkel et al in @JAMA_current examined impact of school closures and other NPI, and their precise timing, in the 1918 influenza pandemic, looking at 43 major USA cities

The *earlier* that schools were closed (ideally even in *advance* of outbreaks) the lower the number of excess deaths in 43 US cities during the 1918 Influenza pandemic.

What Can we Learn from Other Countries?

Largest case series of COVID19 patients (n=72,314) published in a leading medical journal, summarizing key epidemiologic characteristics and centralized efforts to decrease morbidity and mortality from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

A week ago, Italy had so few cases of corona that it could give each stricken patient high-quality care. Today, some hospitals are so overwhelmed that they simply cannot treat every patient. They are starting to do wartime triage. This scenario is substantially comparable to the field of ‘catastrophe medicine.

There are now simply too many patients for each one of them to receive adequate care. Those who are too old to have a high likelihood of recovery, or who have too low a number of “life-years” left even if they should survive, will be left to die. It’s a matter of giving priority to ‘the highest hope of life and survival.