Handicapping the betting history of 0-3 NFL teams

Teams starting the NFL season 0-3 are winless for a reason, which is never more evident than their record in Game 4 of the schedule.

NFL 0-3 teams are just 38-77 SU in their fourth game since 1985, posting a 54-57-4 ATS mark in those contests. Since 2000, those winless teams are 18-39 SU and 29-26-2 ATS in Game 4. Last season featured two 0-3 teams – Cleveland and New Orleans – and while both failed to snap their skids, they did manage to cover the spread.

Week 4 of the 2013 NFL season features six 0-3 clubs – New York, Washington, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay - which ties the second-highest amount of winless teams heading into their fourth contest since 1985.

The 1986 and 1996 seasons also had six teams looking for the first win in their fourth game, with those teams going a combined 6-6 SU and ATS in their next outing. The 2009 season featured a high of seven 0-3 teams, which went 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in their fourth try.

Of the six winless 2013 teams, Tampa Bay has been in this situation the most over the past 28 seasons. The Buccaneers have gone 0-3 six times in that span and have failed to win Game 4 each time, posting a 3-2-1 ATS record in those outings. Tampa Bay is a 1-point home favorite starting rookie QB Mike Glennon versus Arizona Sunday.

Pittsburgh and Minnesota, who play each other in London Sunday, have each only been in this 0-3 spot once. The Vikings failed in their chance to win Game 4 SU and ATS while the Steelers snapped their slide with a SU and ATS victory. Pittsburgh is currently a 2.5-point favorite in Week 4.

NFC East rivals New York and Washington are also strangers to a 0-3 record. The Redskins, who are 3-point faves in Oakland, have only been there twice, losing both Game 4 chances and going 0-1-1 ATS. The Giants, who are 4.5-point dogs in Kansas City, have done this three times before since 1985, posting a 2-1 SU and ATS mark in their fourth game of that season.

Jacksonville, which currently looks like the worst of the worst, has been 0-3 to start the year just twice before, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in fourth-game situations. However, the Jaguars have only been in the NFL since 1995. They started 0-3 in that inaugural season and lost Game 4, but covered the spread. Jacksonville is a 7.5-point home pup hosting Indianapolis Sunday.

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What you see is what you get each year from Pittsburgh, which builds through the draft, doesn’t sign a lot of free agents and basically comes at you. How much Ben Roethlisberger has left is a question asked every September given the number of hits he takes. The biggest change will be at defensive coordinator, where legend Dick Lebeau is gone – which may mean the LBs will be freer to attack the pocket.

The Vikes have Adrian Peterson back and things seem to have calmed down a bit in Minnesota. But then again, Mike Wallace has been on board for only a few months. Vikes are looking for a huge Year 2 improvement from Teddy Bridgewater and if they get it they can make things sticky in the North.

In 2014/15 the Steelers were 1-3 SU/ATS in the preseason and in 2013/14 they were 0-4 SU/ATS. After missing the playoffs in 2013/14, Pittsburgh returned last year only to lose 30-17 to the Ravens in the Wildcard round. Mike Tomlin has clearly not been very worried about winning in the preseason the last few years.

Last year the Vikes went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the preseason, after going 1-3 SU/ATS in 2013/14 and 1-3 SU/ATS in 2012/13. For a team which is desperately trying to get back to the playoffs, the preseason suddenly becomes a lot more important.

There are many players on Minnesota which have something to prove, while Pittsburgh will surely be happy to just go through the motions and leave Canton without any significant injuries.

Minnesota would seem to be the more motivated team in this one, consider laying the short points.

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