Friday, March 04, 2011

The Most Basic Baseball Stat

I think anyone who is still reading this blog is familiar with the batting average/on base percentage/ slugging average statistical trio. It gives us a good summary of offensive production combining the ability to hit for average, to get on base and to hit for power. In many ways, it is batter than the traditional combination of batting average/ home runs/ runs batted in. One drawback, however, is that all three components are rate statistics that do not reward players for playing time. Certainly a player who hits .300/.360/.500 in 600 plate appearances contributes more to his team than a player with the same line in 200 plate appearances.

Whereas rates statistics measure a players excellence during the time he played, counting statistics such as hits (instead of batting average) and total bases (instead of slugging) give a player credit for durability. We are familiar with the popular hit milestones such as 200 hits in a season and 3,000 hits for a career. It would make sense that we also look at Times On Base (TOB), as it would tell us more about a player's value to his team; yet this measure is not tracked on any popular web site on a regular basis.

There are surely more complex metrics such as Batting Runs and Weighted Runs Created that do consider playing time as well as excellence. They will tell you more about a player's overall production than Times On Base, but sometimes it is good to step back and look at more basic numbers not requiring fancy weights and adjustments. And what could be simpler or more basic than the number of times a player reaches base?

How often do the best hitters get on base? Last year, there were 19 players in MLB who reached base on a hit, a walk or a hit batsman 250 or more times. Reaching base 300 times is very difficult and has happened only 144 times since 1871. That comes out to about one player per year. As seen in Table 1, nobody reached that mark last year. Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols came the closest with 290. Pujols reached base 310 times in 2009.

Table 1: MLB Times On Base Leaders, 2010

Player

Team

PA

H

BB

HBP

TOB

Albert Pujols

SLN

700

183

103

4

290

Prince Fielder

MIL

714

151

114

21

286

Rickie Weeks

MIL

754

175

76

25

276

Joey Votto

CIN

648

177

91

7

275

Miguel Cabrera

DET

648

180

89

3

272

Adrian Gonzalez

SDN

692

176

93

2

271

Daric Barton

OAK

686

152

110

3

265

Robinson Cano

NYA

696

200

57

8

265

Billy Butler

KCA

678

189

69

5

263

Matt Holliday

SLN

675

186

69

8

263

The highest single season TOB total in the history of baseball was Babe Ruth's 379 in 1923. The top ten list (Table 2) is dominated by Ruth, Barry Bonds and Ty Cobb.

Table 2: All-Time MLB Single Season Times On Base Leaders

Player

Team

Year

PA

H

BB

HBP

TOB

Babe Ruth

NYA

1923

699

205

170

4

379

Barry Bonds

SFN

2004

617

135

232

9

376

Ted Williams

BOS

1949

730

194

162

2

358

Barry Bonds

SFN

2002

612

149

198

9

356

Billy Hamilton

PHI

1894

679

220

126

9

355

Babe Ruth

NYA

1921

693

204

145

4

353

Babe Ruth

NYA

1924

681

200

142

4

346

Ted Williams

BOS

1947

693

181

162

2

345

Wade Boggs

BOS

1988

719

214

125

3

342

Barry Bonds

SFN

2001

664

156

177

9

342

You may know that there are 27 players who have reached 3,000 hits. You probably haven't heard that there are 42 players with 4,000 TOB lifetime. Pete Rose has the most hits (4,256) and TOB (5,929) lifetime largely because he had such a long career. After Rose, the hit and TOB leaders start to look different. Bonds, Rickey Henderson,and Ruth, are not near the top of the all-time hit leaders, but finished second fourth and ninth respectively on the TOB list largely due to their high walk totals.

Table 3: Lifetime MLB Times On Base Leaders

Player

First year

Last year

PA

H

BB

HBP

TOB

Pete Rose

1963

1986

15,861

4,256

1,566

107

5,929

Barry Bonds

1986

2007

12,606

2,935

2,558

106

5,599

Ty Cobb

1905

1928

13,072

4,189

1,249

94

5,532

Rickey Henderson

1979

2003

13,346

3,055

2,190

98

5,343

Carl Yastrzemski

1961

1983

13,991

3,419

1,845

40

5,304

Stan Musial

1941

1963

12,712

3,630

1,599

53

5,282

Hank Aaron

1954

1976

13,940

3,771

1,402

32

5,205

Tris Speaker

1907

1928

11,988

3,514

1,381

103

4,998

Babe Ruth

1914

1935

10,616

2,873

2,062

43

4,978

Eddie Collins

1906

1930

12,037

3,315

1,499

77

4,891

Obviously, we don't want to use Times On Base in isolation any more than we would use hits or home runs alone to define a player. However, I do think it's nice to know which players reached base the most often in a given year before getting to the more complex metrics. I'll look at the Tigers in a later post.