Lets hear some theories. Im always in the mood to speculate and try to make some money on the line swing.

I think there was a slight head fake towards SF recently in the line, but I think it will go towards Balt from here. Right now SF is -109 / +101 (at pinny), but am guessing a reversal of that by gametime to Balt -110 / +102.

I thought (and still think) it is a dead 3 point line - so at 3.5 it might be worth a small bet for me - especially at +101 or so.

But I dont love it either way. I do think that the extra week definitely favors Balt in prep for Kapernick. That spread option shouldnt be a problem - and they will make him throw more. I like that position with the Ravens - if he beats us in the air and makes the throws - so be it - but I am going to MAKE him make the throws.

Historically, 80% of all bets will come in the last 48 hours and that should be on SF. If you're going to bet Baltimore I think it can only help you to wait.

Kaepernick throwing instead of running only benefits the 49ers I think. His arm accuracy and ability to throw on the move is highly overshadowed by his running. His true strength is his arm, not his legs.

Historically, 80% of all bets will come in the last 48 hours and that should be on SF. If you're going to bet Baltimore I think it can only help you to wait.

Kaepernick throwing instead of running only benefits the 49ers I think. His arm accuracy and ability to throw on the move is highly overshadowed by his running. His true strength is his arm, not his legs.

You might be right....

But 8 weeks ago he was on the bench. So make him prove it in the biggest pressure game on the planet.

I do not see this move as a head fake. I think the uptick in 49er money was real and any swing back to Baltimore is because much of the gambling world is in love with the dog this year. I am not doubting your reasoning or insight into why you think Baltimore may be a good wager, just my two cents into what the general consensus might be out there in my humble opinion.

If you've looked around here the past 10 days, you for sure have seen the insane amount of love for the Ravens on this board.

If anything this line will go to SF-3 but i think it might hold steady at 3.5 but the price for that might change

I agree with your exact thoughts on Kap and i used the same reasoning as to why i backed ATL last week

If Balt buys into playing disciplined TEAM defense and keep there integrity when rushing the QB i.e not getting out of there rush lanes and keeping Kap in the pocket i will take my chances with him in the pocket making throws with the best saftey to ever play the game lurking back there

BTW i am a cowboy fan not a raven fan despite my username and me living in bmore my whole life. GL all

Why do you only want to discuss Pinnacle's lines? Is BookMaker and 5Dimes not a large enough book/pool of bettors that would be legitimate enough to go off of? BookMaker is sitting at +4 right now.

I see from your multiple posts about it, that you are interested in pointing out that the line is different at other places.

In order to show real movement, you have to have a baseline. I chose Pinnacle simply because it is the biggest sportsbook in the world, and is the source of most line moves.

So lets stick with Pinnacle for the purposes of showing relative movement from a fixed point - in this case the SF -3.5 -109 line that was established in this thread at 1:42 EST Friday.

The line has not moved since then.

I assume by your posts, you are saying that the line WILL move and it will move up to -4 because there are several other places that you know about that are already there.

Fair enough, point taken. It is interesting that it is somewhat split in this thread so far. Keep the opinions coming. As usual, I am more interested in line movement leading up to the game than the actual game itself.

Hey VAN, gotta think it'll be mostly 49er money pouring in over the weekend with a -4 the final number. Attractive either way,(sf ML or +4) gotta think there'll be some delicious props... easier pickings than these 2 sides, Game could easily fall SF 3 pt win

How bout you? Leans on props? The total? I could see an absolute defensive slugfest too since coaches are brothers who think similarly

vanzack - what do you make of the initial opening line movements? It looks like it shot up from 3.5 to as high as 5 and O/U came down from 49.5 to 47.5 - I can't really grasp the reasoning behind all of this movement.

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