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A new assessment by U.S. and East Asian intelligence officials concludes North Korea will be capable of launching a nuclear-capable, intercontinental ballistic missile as early as next year. The new conclusion dramatically alters previous forecasts that indicated Pyongyang was two years away from significant advances in its program.

Intelligence officials now believe the country’s nuclear program will advance from prototype to the assembly line, a worrisome factor that would indicate the missile would be ready to be used as a real weapon.

But former U.S. officials and weapons experts said a successful test of a nuclear-capable ICBM would dramatically raise the stakes in the North Korean crisis, putting new pressure on North Korea’s neighbors and increasing the risk of miscalculation.

“This notion that the program is unsophisticated is no longer true, and I don’t think the strategy is unsophisticated, either,” said Vipin Narang, an MIT professor who has written two books about nuclear strategy.

Narang said Kim’s blueprint appears to be derived from the playbooks of other countries that developed nuclear weapons, including Pakistan. The short version: repel and deter. He would hope to have enough nuclear firepower to repel a conventional attack from South Korea while deterring a game-ending nuclear retaliation by the United States.

North Korea almost certainly has the capability to use a nuclear bomb against anything in South Korea and Japan, said Joshua Pollack, editor of Nonproliferation Review. But no one is sure how powerful those bombs are.

Population density

high

low

U.S. military bases, total number of

active-duty, reserves and civilians

1k

2k

4k

6k

RUSSIA

200 MILES

CHINA

N. KOREA

Pyongyang

JAPAN

Seoul

S. KOREA

Tokyo

—Daegu

More than 50,000 U.S. troops in Japan.

About 28,000 U.S. troops are in South Korea.

Pacific Ocean

Okinawa

North Korea almost certainly has the capability to use a nuclear bomb against anything in South Korea and the main islands of Japan, said Joshua Pollack, editor of Nonproliferation Review. But no one is sure how powerful those bombs are.

Population density

U.S. military bases, total number of

active-duty, reserves and civilians

low

high

RUSSIA

1k

2k

4k

6k

Vladivostok

CHINA

Misawa Air Base—

NORTH

KOREA

—Beijing

Sea of Japan

(East Sea)

Pyongyang

JAPAN

THAAD missile

defense system

Seoul

Tokyo

About 28,000 U.S. troops are in South Korea.

—Daegu

—Busan

SOUTH

KOREA

—Osaka

Hawaii

4,600 miles

from Pyongyang

Sasebo

Naval

Base

—Nagasaki

More than 50,000 U.S. troops in Japan.

—Shanghai

CHINA

Pacific Ocean

East China Sea

200 MILES

Guam

Okinawa

2,100 miles from Pyongyang

Some experts say Guam, a refueling and staging hub for U.S. military action in East Asia, would be a prime target because there are always heavy bombers there and the North Koreans have openly identified it as a threat. Others think it is out of the way because U.S. nuclear forces flying from the mainland to North Korea would refuel in midair over Alaska, not Guam.

U.S. military bases, total number of

active-duty, reserves and civilians

Population density

low

high

1k

2k

4k

6k

RUSSIA

Vladivostok

100 MILES

North Korea almost certainly has the capability to use a nuclear bomb against anything in South Korea and the main islands of Japan, said Joshua Pollack, editor of Nonproliferation Review. But no one is sure how powerful those bombs are.

Shenyeng—

Misawa Air Base

CHINA

—Beijing

NORTH

KOREA

Pyongyang

About 28,000 U.S. troops are in South Korea, spread over bases from Camp Casey just below the DMZ to Camp Chinhae near the port of Busan.

JAPAN

Seoul

SOUTH

KOREA

Sea of Japan

(East Sea)

THAAD missile

defense system

Tokyo

—Daegu

Kunsan Air Base

—Busan

Gwangju

—Osaka

Hawaii

Marine Corps

Air Station Iwakuni

—Hiroshima

4,600 miles

from Pyongyang

CHINA

More than 50,000 U.S. military personnel are stationed on dozens of bases in Japan.

Sasebo Naval Base

—Nagasaki

—Shanghai

Pacific Ocean

Guam

2,100 miles from Pyongyang

East China Sea

Some experts say Guam, a refueling and staging hub for U.S. military action in East Asia, would be a prime target because there are always heavy bombers there and the North Koreans have openly identified it as a threat. Others think it is out of the way because U.S. nuclear forces flying from the mainland to North Korea would refuel in midair over Alaska, not Guam.

Okinawa

U.S. military bases, total number of

active-duty, reserves and civilians

Population density

low

high

1k

2k

4k

6k

100 MILES

RUSSIA

Vladivostok

Shenyeng

Misawa Air Base

North Korea almost certainly has the capability to use a nuclear bomb against anything in South Korea and the main islands of Japan, said Joshua Pollack, editor of Nonproliferation Review. But no one is sure how powerful those bombs are.

CHINA

Beijing

NORTH

KOREA

Pyongyang

About 28,000 U.S. troops are in South Korea, spread over bases from Camp Casey just below the DMZ to Camp Chinhae near the port of Busan.

Sea of Japan

(East Sea)

Seoul

SOUTH

KOREA

JAPAN

THAAD missile

defense system

Tokyo

Kunsan Air Base

—Daegu

—Busan

Gwangju

Hawaii

Osaka

Hiroshima

4,600 miles

from Pyongyang

Marine Corps

Air Station Iwakuni

Yellow Sea

CHINA

More than 50,000 U.S. military personnel are stationed on dozens of bases in Japan.

Sasebo Naval Base

Nagasaki

Shanghai

Pacific Ocean

Guam

2,100 miles from Pyongyang

East China Sea

Some experts say Guam, a refueling and staging hub for U.S. military action in East Asia, would be a prime target because there are always heavy bombers there and the North Koreans have openly identified it as a threat. Others think it is out of the way because U.S. nuclear forces flying from the mainland to North Korea would refuel in midair over Alaska, not Guam.

Okinawa

Population density

U.S. military bases, total number of

active-duty, reserves and civilians

low

high

1k

2k

4k

6k

100 MILES

RUSSIA

Vladivostok—

Shenyeng—

North Korea almost certainly has the capability to use a nuclear bomb against anything in South Korea and the main islands of Japan, said Joshua Pollack, editor of Nonproliferation Review. But no one is sure how powerful those bombs are.

—Misawa Air Base

—Beijing

NORTH

KOREA

Pyongyang

Sea of Japan

(East Sea)

About 28,000 U.S. troops are in South Korea, spread over bases from Camp Casey just below the DMZ to Camp Chinhae near the port of Busan.

Seoul

SOUTH

KOREA

JAPAN

THAAD missile

defense system

Tokyo

Kunsan Air Base

—Daegu

Hawaii

Gwangju—

—Busan

4,600 miles

from Pyongyang

—Osaka

Marine Corps

Air Station Iwakuni

Yellow Sea

—Hiroshima

More than 50,000 U.S. military personnel are stationed on dozens of bases in Japan.

CHINA

Sasebo

Naval Base

—Nagasaki

—Shanghai

Pacific Ocean

Guam

2,100 miles from Pyongyang

East China Sea

Some experts say Guam, a refueling and staging hub for U.S. military action in East Asia, would be a prime target because there are always heavy bombers there and the North Koreans have openly identified it as a threat. Others think it is out of the way because U.S. nuclear forces flying from the mainland to North Korea would refuel in midair over Alaska, not Guam.

Okinawa

“The objective is to preserve the regime, right?” said Narang. “You really have to stop the invasion. And if you think you need nuclear weapons to do that . . . how do you deal with the fact that the U.S. is going to make you a smoldering, radioactive hole at the end of that? Well, if you can hold American homeland targets at risk, that might induce caution.”

It is a risky strategy, but not many options are available to a small country against a superpower. And it explains why Kim appears to be trying to build a diverse nuclear arsenal that is capable of striking targets as near as the South Korean border and as far away as the U.S. mainland.

Close targets: U.S. bases near Seoul

Population density

low

high

NORTH

KOREA

10 MILES

Kaesong—

SOUTH

KOREA

Camp Casey

Demilitarized

Zone (DMZ)

Camp Red Cloud

Seoul

—Blue House

Yongsan Garrison

Incheon

Osan Air Base

Detail

Camp Humphreys

Population density

low

high

Detail

Demilitarized

Zone (DMZ)

NORTH KOREA

Kaesong—

SOUTH KOREA

Camp Casey

Camp Red Cloud

U.S. army base located in Uijeongbu,

population 430,000 people.

Seoul

Airport

—Chuncheon

—Blue House

Yongsan Garrison

Yellow Sea

Incheon

Serves the largest American

population in the country.

NORTH

Osan Air Base

Roughly 5,000 military and civilian personnel

—Wonju

Camp Humphreys

10 MILES

Located in Pyeongtaek, it is designated to become the central Army hub.

Population density

low

high

—Haeju

NORTH

Detail

NORTH KOREA

Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)

Kosong—

Kaesong—

DMZ

SOUTH KOREA

Sea of

Japan

Camp Casey

Yellow Sea

Camp Red Cloud

U.S. army base located in Uijeongbu,

population 430,000 people.

Sokcho—

Seoul

Airport

—Blue House

Yongsan Garrison

Incheon

Serves the largest American

population in the country.

Gangneung—

—Wonju

Camp Humphreys

Osan Air Base

Roughly 5,000 military and civilian personnel

Located in Pyeongtaek, it is designated to become the central Army hub.

Donghae—

10 MILES

The North Koreans like their chances of repelling a South Korean invasion with conventional rather than nuclear weapons, said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. It is the U.S. forces in the region that worry them.

“The nuclear weapons are going to be targeted at ports and airfields and probably some army bases where U.S. forces are,” he said. “What they actually target, of course, is a little bit harder to guess.”

One of those bases, Yongsan Garrison, is in downtown Seoul. A nuclear device detonated there could destroy the city, possibly including the Blue House, South Korea’s equivalent of the White House, which sits on a mountain in the north part.

Lewis said two army bases, Camp Casey and Camp Humphreys, are probably high on the list. Camp Humphreys in particular is expanding rapidly as American forces in South Korea consolidate there. Other likely targets could be army camps Red Cloud and Market and Air Force bases Osan and Kunsan.

A bit farther away: Southeastern Korea

Sometimes Kim makes his intentions obvious.

In a photo released by North Korean state media, Kim Jong Un examines a map showing the direction and range of a test missile. Under closer examination, we can see that the range is in line with the port city of Busan in South Korea. This animation demonstrates how analysts study these state media releases.

In response to a port call by the USS Ohio to Busan, which the North Koreans denounced in their media, North Korea shot a missile into the Sea of Japan. Photos released by North Korean media included a map showing that the missile’s landing point was the same distance from its launch point as the port city of Busan. A pointed statement released with the photos made it clear that the exercise was a practice shot at Busan.

Population density

low

high

Gimcheon

10 MILES

—Gumi

Camp Carroll

Daegu—

Camp George

Camp Henry

Camp Walker

THAAD

installation

SOUTH KOREA

Gimhae

Chinhae Fleet

Activity

Busan

Detail

Korea Strait

Population density

low

high

Gimcheon—

—Gumi

THAAD

installation

Camp Carroll

Pohang—

Daegu—

Camp George

Camp Henry

Camp Walker

There are roughly 10,000 U.S.

personnel in the camps in Daegu region. The city has a population of 2.5 million

SOUTH KOREA

Ulsan—

10 MILES

Gimhae

Chinhae Fleet

Activity

Busan

Detail

Korea Strait

Kim would want to disable anything in South Korea that would hamper the Americans’ ability to support the invasion, Lewis said, such as a trio of bases around Daegu.

The U.S. missile defense system called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) is installed at a golf course in Seongju, South Korea. (Kim Jun-beom/Yonhap via AP, File)

Another high-profile target could be the new Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD), which the United States recently deployed to defend its Korean bases from incoming missiles.

The wider region: Japan and others

The sites Kim would be most concerned about in the rest of northeast Asia are pretty straightforward, Lewis said. That includes three U.S. bases in metropolitan Tokyo. A strike there would devastate parts of the city.

Population density

low

high

JAPAN

Yokota

Air Base

Mutual Defense

Assistant Office

Tokyo

Tokyo

Bay

Camp Zama

Naval Air

Facility Atsugi

Yokosuka

Naval Base

10 MILES

Detail

Population density

low

high

JAPAN

Detail

Yokota Air Base

Mutual Defense

Assistant Office

Tokyo

Tokyo

Bay

Camp Zama

Naval Air Facility Atsugi

Mt. Fuji

Yokosuka Naval Base

Sagami

Bay

10 MILES

Population density

low

high

10 MILES

JAPAN

Yokota Air Base

Tokyo

8,000 military and family

members stationed here

Mutual Defense

Assistant Office

Tokyo

Bay

Camp Zama

Pacific

Ocean

Naval Air Facility Atsugi

Mt. Fuji

Yokosuka

Naval Base

Home of the U.S.

Navy’s Seventh Fleet

Sapporo

Sagami

Bay

Suruga

Bay

Tokyo

Detail

Nagasaki

—Okinawa Island (detail below)

960 miles fromTokyo

Other probable strikes would aim to cripple Kadena and Futenma, two air bases on the Japanese island of Okinawa, which houses more than 27,000 U.S. troops at a cluster of installations. Okinawa, because of its central location in the region, is key to U.S. military in East Asia.

Okinawa

2 MILES

(JAPAN)

Kadena Air force base

Okinawa

Naval hospital

Kadena

Fleet

Futenma

Okinawa Island

960 miles

from Tokyo

Detail

2 MILES

Kadena Air force base

Okinawa Island

Okinawa

960 miles

from Tokyo

Naval hospital

Detail

Kadena Fleet

Futenma

Urasoe

Naha

Okinawa

(JAPAN)

Philippine

Sea

Tomigusuku

Last month, the North Koreans fired four missiles that analysts say were practice shots simulating an attack on the Iwakuni Marine Corps Air Station near Hiroshima. Lewis thinks Sasebo Naval Base in Nagasaki and Misawa Air Force Base to the north may be targeted as well.

Farther away are Guam and even Australia, a seemingly improbable target, but one that North Korea threatened this month during a visit by Vice President Pence. U.S. Marines train with Australian troops on a base in Darwin in the north of the continent.

Kim’s Holy Grail: The United States

This is the “deter” part of the strategy. Kim wants President Trump and the U.S. military to believe he can strike their homeland so maybe they will think twice about obliterating his.

The stars of a military parade last month in Pyongyang were huge green canisters which looked as if they could contain intercontinental ballistic missiles, the type that would be needed to hit the U.S. mainland. In case the point was too subtle, a concert video released around the same event showed missiles blowing up San Francisco.

Missile canisters are paraded across Kim Il Sung Square during a military parade on April 15 in Pyongyang, North Korea. (Wong Maye-E/Associated Press)

A mystery missile that showed up in the parade looked like a shorter version of an earlier known intermediate-range ballistic missile and is believed to be the missile test-fired May 14. The missile was fired almost straight into the air, but had it been launched at a lower angle, it could’ve flown about 2,800 miles, according to physicist David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists Global Security Program.

Photograph released after

the May 14 missile test

Map from the same image rotated to show trajectory of launch

—Launch

site

Landing site in

Sea of Japan

Altitude:

1,500

miles

The test showed that Guam, which is 2,100 miles from N. Korea, is now within reach.

Test had a lofted trajectory

Japan reported that the

missile flew for 30 minutes

and traveled 430 miles.

1,000

On a normal trajectory and same flight time, the distance would be 2,800 miles.

500

Projected

trajectory

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Range in miles

Photograph released after

the May 14 missile test

The test demonstrated that Guam, which is 2,100 miles from N. Korea,

is now within reach.

Altitude:

1,500

miles

Test had a lofted trajectory

Japan reported that the

missile flew for 30 minutes

and traveled 430 miles.

1,000

On a normal trajectory and same flight time, the distance would be 2,800 miles.

Map from the same image rotated to show trajectory of launch

500

Projected

trajectory

—Launch

site

Landing site in

Sea of Japan

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Range in miles

Photograph released by state media

after the May 14 missile test

Map from the same image rotated

to show trajectory of launch

The test showed that Guam, which is 2,100

miles from North Korea, is now within reach.

Altitude:

1,500

miles

Test had a lofted trajectory

Japan reported that the

missile flew for 30 minutes

and traveled 430 miles.

1,000

On a normal trajectory and same flight time, the distance would be 2,800 miles.

500

Projected

trajectory

—Launch

site

Landing site in

Sea of Japan

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Range in miles

Three days before the test, Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats said in an annual report to the Senate Intelligence Committee that he expects North Korea to conduct its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) flight test in 2017. If successful, the report said, it “would serve as a milestone toward a more reliable threat to the US mainland.”

Analysis of this 2013 North Korean image shows potential targets in the United States.

If Kim develops the technology, where would he aim ICBMs?

The biggest clue may have come in 2013 from Kim himself, again through propaganda. A photo accompanying a media report about threats to the continental United States showed the dictator with military officers in what looks like a military office or situation room, and around them hung several maps and lists of U.S. installations. One map clearly showed four ominous lines originating from somewhere in Asia and ending in the United States. (Never mind that it is much more likely that an ICBM would be fired up over the Arctic Circle than straight east to west.)

Experts have identified several potential targets in the United States, including some that appeared in North Korean propaganda. A key piece of Kim Jong Un’s survival strategy is to make the world think he can strike the U.S. mainland.

Population density

low

high

Washington,

D.C. area

North Korea is about 5,000 miles from Seattle

Whiteman

Air Force Base

Seattle—

Offutt Air Force Base

Pacific

Ocean

San Francisco—

Barksdale

Air Force Base,

Louisiana

San Diego area

Joint Base

Pearl Harbor-Hickam

Experts have identified several potential targets in the United States, including some that appeared in North Korean propaganda. A key piece of Kim Jong Un’s survival strategy is to make the world think he can strike the U.S. mainland.

Population density

low

high

U.S. military bases

Washington,

D.C. area

North Korea is about 5,000 miles from Seattle

U.S. capital,

Headquarters of

Department of

Defense

CANADA

A missile defense system in Alaska and California is designed to protect the United States by intercepting incoming bombs in space, but testing has found technical problems and its effectiveness is not known.

Whiteman

Air Force Base,

Missouri

Seattle—

—St. Louis

Offutt Air Force Base

San Francisco—

Pacific Ocean

CALIF.

Barksdale

Air Force Base,

Louisiana

Joint Base

Pearl Harbor-Hickam

San Diego area

HAWAII

Headquarters of

Air Force Global

Strike Command

Headquarters of the

Pacific Fleet

Home port of

the Pacific Fleet

MEXICO

Population density per square kilometer

low

high

U.S. military bases

A missile defense system in Alaska and California is designed to protect the United States by intercepting incoming bombs in space, but testing has found technical problems and its effectiveness is not known.

Washington,

D.C. area

U.S. capital,

Headquarters of

Department of

Defense

Experts have identified several potential targets in the United States, including some that appeared in North Korean propaganda. A key piece of Kim Jong Un’s survival strategy is to make the world think he can strike the U.S. mainland.

CANADA

Whiteman

Air Force Base,

Missouri

Seattle—

—St. Louis

Offutt Air Force Base

Pacific Ocean

San Francisco—

CALIF.

—Miami

Barksdale

Air Force Base,

Louisiana

Joint Base

Pearl Harbor-Hickam

San Diego area

HAWAII

Home port of

the Pacific Fleet

Headquarters of the

Pacific Fleet

Headquarters of

Air Force Global

Strike Command

MEXICO

One of the lines ended at Honolulu, home to U.S. Pacific Command and the USS Cheyenne submarine, which can launch long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles.
A second ended in Southern California, probably San Diego, the Pacific Fleet’s home port. The easternmost line went to Washington, D.C.

The end point of a fourth line is obscured by the officer’s hat, but Lewis believes it goes to Barksdale, La., home to Air Force Global Strike Command, which conducts long-range bomber missions.

Pearl Harbor Naval Base, Hawaii

Naval Base San Diego

The Pentagon

Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana

Pearl Harbor Naval Base, Hawaii

Naval Base San Diego

The Pentagon

Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana

The Pentagon

Joint Base Pearl Harbor–Hickam

Naval Base San Diego

Barksdale Air Force Base

Pollack said experts say the only one of these sites North Korea could potentially reach now is Hawaii, and that is a stretch. South Korean media reported that the North has a missile with a range of more than 5,000 miles, long enough to reach Honolulu. If that missile exists, it has not been tested successfully.

Lewis believe these sites are the real targets, because they all have a legitimate military purpose. Other analysts add Offutt Air Force Base near Omaha, home to U.S. Strategic Command, and Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, the point of origin for nuclear-capable B-2 stealth bombers.

Still others think Kim might target Seattle and San Francisco, the two largest West Coast population centers that would be the easiest to reach from North Korea.

“It’s not like there is an answer written down in a little book,” Lewis said. “The North Koreans have a kind of articulated strategy, and they’ve shown some scary stuff, and we’re left to sort of piece together what all that means.”

Should we panic? No, says Pollack.
Look behind the rhetoric, he said, and when it comes to nuclear weapons, North Korea has threatened only retaliation, not a first strike.