Abstract: Given the interest in implementing land-use change and forestry projects for mitigating carbon dioxide emissions, there is potentially a large demand for a system to measure carbon stocks accurately and precisely in a cost-effective manner. As terrestrial ecosystems tend to be heterogeneous, a large number of sample plots could be needed to attain the regulatory-required levels of precision, thus resulting in a costly process. A potential way of reducing costs of measuring the carbon stocks of forests is to collect the key data remotely. We have designed a system (a multispectral three-dimensional aerial digital imagery system, M3DADI) that collects high-resolution overlapping stereo imagery (10 cm pixels) from which we can distinguish individual trees or shrubs. In essence, we created a virtual forest that we used to measure crown area and heights of all plant groups. We used this M3DADI system to estimate the carbon stocks in aboveground biomass for the pine savanna in the Rio Bravo Carbon Sequestration Pilot Project in Belize. Seventy-seven plots were established on the images, and using a series of nested plots we digitized the crown area and heights of pine and broadleaf trees, palmettos, and shrubs. Based on standard destructive harvest techniques, we obtained highly significant allometric regression equations between biomass carbon per individual and crown area and height. Combining the image-plot data with the allometric equations resulted in a mean carbon stock of 13.1 Mg/ha with a 95% confidence interval of 2.2 Mg C/ha or ±16% of the mean. The coefficient of variation was high for all vegetation types (range of 31–303%), reflecting the highly heterogeneous nature of the system. We estimated that 202 plots would need to be installed to achieve a 95% confidence interval of ±10% of the mean. We compared the cost-effectiveness of the M3DADI approach with conventional field methods based on the total person-hours needed by both approaches to collect the same set of data for 202 plots. We found that the conventional field approach took about three times more person-hours than the M3DADI approach.

Modeling climate change effects on the potential production of French plains forests at the sub-regional level

Abstract: We modeled the effects of climate change and two forest management scenarios on wood production and forest carbon balance in French forests using process-based models of forest growth. We combined data from the national forest inventory and soil network survey, which were aggregated over a 50 × 50-km grid, i.e., the spatial resolution of the climate scenario data. We predicted and analyzed the climate impact on potential forest production over the period 1960–2100. All models predicted a slight increase in potential forest yield until 2030–2050, followed by a plateau or a decline around 2070–2100, with overall, a greater increase in yield in northern France than in the south. Gross and net primary productivities were more negatively affected by soil water and atmospheric water vapor saturation deficits in western France because of a more pronounced shift in seasonal rainfall from summer to winter. The rotation-averaged values of carbon flux and production for different forest management options were estimated during four years (1980, 2015, 2045 and 2080). Predictions were made using a two-dimensional matrix covering the range of local soil and climate conditions. The changes in ecosystem fluxes and forest production were explained by the counterbalancing effect of rising CO2 concentration and increasing water deficit. The effect of climate change decreased with rotation length from short rotations with high production rates and low standing biomasses to long rotations with low productivities and greater standing biomasses. Climate effects on productivity, both negative and positive, were greatest on high fertility sites. Forest productivity in northern France was enhanced by climate change, increasingly from west to east, whereas in the southwestern Atlantic region, productivity was reduced by climate change to an increasing degree from west to east.

An improved analysis of forest carbon dynamics using data assimilation

Abstract: There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics – by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques – which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model – improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil CO2 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE) = - 251 +/- 197 gCm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of – 419 +/- 29 gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis – which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data – improves the analysis of NEE.

Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1°× 1° fire history reconstruction for the 20th century

Mouillot, F. - Field, C.B. (2005)

Global Change Biology 11 (3): 398

Abstract: A yearly global fire history is a prerequisite for quantifying the contribution of previous fires to the past and present global carbon budget. Vegetation fires can have both direct (combustion) and long-term indirect effects on the carbon cycle. Every fire influences the ecosystem carbon budget for many years, as a consequence of internal reorganization, decomposition of dead biomass, and regrowth. We used a two-step process to estimate these effects. First we synthesized the available data available for the 1980s or 1990s to produce a global fire map. For regions with no data, we developed estimates based on vegetation type and history. Second, we then worked backwards to reconstruct the fire history. This reconstruction was based on published data when available. Where it was not, we extrapolated from land use practices, qualitative reports and local studies, such as tree ring analysis. The resulting product is intended as a first approximation for questions about consequences of historical changes in fire for the global carbon budget. We estimate that an average of 608 Mha yr—1 burned (not including agricultural fires) at the end of the 20th century. 86% of this occurred in tropical savannas. Fires in forests with higher carbon stocks consumed 70.7 Mha yr—1 at the beginning of the century, mostly in the boreal and temperate forests of the Northern Hemisphere. This decreased to 15.2 Mha yr—1 in the 1960s as a consequence of fire suppression policies and the development of efficient fire fighting equipment. Since then, fires in temperate and boreal forests have decreased to 11.2 Mha yr—1. At the same time, burned areas increased exponentially in tropical forests, reaching 54 Mha yr—1 in the 1990s, reflecting the use of fire in deforestation for expansion of agriculture. There is some evidence for an increase in area burned in temperate and boreal forests in the closing years of the 20th century.

Experience with patterns of change in soil carbon resulting from forest plantation establishment in eastern Australia

Turner, J. - Lambert, M.J. - Johnson, D.W. (2005)

Forest Ecology and Management 220 (1-3): 259-269

Abstract: Forest plantations are extensively established in eastern Australia for production of timber products and more recently, potentially for sequestration of carbon. Intensive management of these plantations involves clearing of existing vegetation, often using fire, ripping and/or mounding of the soil and weed control, followed by planting, use of fertilizers, and subsequent tending. The plantations are managed on a 10–30-year rotation and often have high growth rates and accumulation of carbon. However, after establishment, there are reduced inputs of carbon into the soil from prior vegetation or rapidly growing weeds, together with accelerated decomposition of soil organic matter as a result of disturbance, and this leads to a net loss of soil organic carbon. In some systems this loss of soil organic carbon is not balanced by carbon biomass sequestration until 5–10 years after establishment and on some sites, a reduction in soil organic carbon may remain until the end of the rotation. The patterns of accumulation and loss of carbon vary according to location, soil type and plantation management system. The effects of intensive forest establishment on soil organic carbon were evaluated in a number of studies in eastern Australia using time sequence and chronosequence studies and comparisons of plantation soils with those from adjacent undisturbed sites. There was a general pattern of reduced carbon in surface soil immediately after plantation establishment and with time this extended deeper into the soil profile. The actual quantities varied greatly depending on the soil type. The decline was primarily a result of losses of labile carbon and was greater when the previous land use had essentially been native vegetation or highly improved pastures as opposed to regrowth woodland, or native pasture, or degraded land. In the absence of further disturbance, soil organic carbon can accumulate to pre-establishment levels but many short rotation plantations are terminated prior to this being attained. The potential upper level of accumulation of soil carbon can be increased by alteration of the soil nutritional status using fertilizer application.

Temporary credits: A solution to the potential non-permanence of carbon sequestration in forests?

Maréchal, K. - Hecq, W. (2005)

Ecological Economics; available online 19 October 2005

Abstract: The potential non-permanence of sequestered CO2 emissions is a crucial issue to tackle in order to safely include forestry activities among eligible activities for the Clean Development Mechanism. Rather than looking at accurate ways of securing permanent reductions, some experts studied the possibility of delivering temporary licenses as a way of circumventing the respective drawbacks of previously proposed approaches (e.g. Ton-Year Accounting). This paper focuses on this concept of temporary (or expiring) credits and tries to assess its financial viability using different scenario assumptions while bearing in mind the need to protect the CDM's environmental integrity. Our main finding is that the concept of expiring credits (EC) provides a convincing answer to the issue of non-permanence both from an environmental perspective and from a strictly financial point of view (as it has the property of efficiently dealing with uncertainties and therefore hedges the risk). However, given the specific nature of forestry activities compared with other types of CDM projects, the EC concept should be complemented with additional rules and modalities.

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate

Fung, I.Y. - Doney, S.C. - Lindsay, K. - John, J. (2005)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102 (32): 11201

Abstract: Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon-climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain.

Species Loss and Aboveground Carbon Storage in a Tropical Forest

Abstract: Tropical forest biodiversity is declining, but the resultingeffects on key ecosystem services, such as carbon storage andsequestration, remain unknown. We assessed the influence ofthe loss of tropical tree species on carbon storage by simulating18 possible extinction scenarios within a well-studied 50-hectaretropical forest plot in Panama, which contains 227 tree species.Among extinction scenarios, aboveground carbon stocks variedby more than 600%, and biological insurance varied by more than400%. These results indicate that future carbon storage in tropicalforests will be influenced strongly by future species composition.

Acclimation of Russian forests to recent changes in climate

Abstract: Assessments made over the past few decades have suggested that boreal forests may act as a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, the fate of the newly accumulated carbon in the living forest biomass is not well understood, and the estimates of carbon sinks vary greatly from one assessment to another. Analysis of remote sensing data has indicated that the carbon sinks in the Russian forests are larger than what has been estimated from forest inventories. In this study, we show that over the past four decades, the allometric relationships among various plant parts have changed in the Russian forests. To this end, we employ two approaches: (1) analysis of the database, which contains 3196 sample plots; and (2) application of developed models to forest inventory data. Within the forests as a whole, when assessed at the continental scale, we detect a pronounced increase in the share of green parts (leaves and needles). However, there is a large geographical variation. The shift has been largest within the European Russia, where summer temperatures and precipitation have increased. In the Northern Taiga of Siberia, where the climate has become warmer but drier, the fraction of the green parts has decreased while the fractions of aboveground wood and roots have increased. These changes are consistent with experiments and mathematical models that predict a shift of carbon allocation to transpiring foliage with increasing temperature and lower allocation with increasing soil drought. In light of this, our results are a possible demonstration of the acclimation of trees to ongoing warming and changes in the surface water balance. Independent of the nature of the observed changes in allometric ratios, the increase in the share of green parts may have caused a misinterpretation of the satellite data and a systematic overestimation by remote sensing methods of the carbon sink for living biomass of the Russian forest.

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, available online 5 December 2005

Abstract: If the United States chooses to implement a greenhouse gas reduction program, it will be necessary to decide whether carbon sequestration policies—such as those that promote forestation and discourage deforestation—should be part of the domestic portfolio of compliance activities. We investigate the cost of forest-based carbon sequestration by analyzing econometrically micro-data on revealed landowner preferences, modeling six major private land uses in a comprehensive analysis of the contiguous United States. The econometric estimates are used to simulate landowner responses to sequestration policies. We treat key commodity prices as endogenous and predict carbon storage changes with a carbon sink model. Our estimated sequestration costs exceed those from previous engineering cost analyses and sectoral optimization models. Our estimated sequestration supply function is similar to the carbon abatement supply function from energy-based analyses, suggesting that forest-based carbon sequestration merits consideration in a cost-effective portfolio of domestic US climate change strategies.

2) Forest and Climate Change News

Bushmen's Quiver Tree Threatened by Climate Change

A famed desert tree used for generations by Africa's bushmen to make quivers for their arrows is threatened by global warming.

California's oak woodlands face a new threat: Climate change

California's iconic oak woodlands have endured many assaults over the years--they've been cut for fuel, cleared for vineyards and housing developments, and their seedlings face intense grazing pressure and competition from invasive grasses. But the future will bring a new threat--climate change--which could drastically reduce the areas in which oaks can grow.

Global Warming Dramatically Changed Ancient Forests

The migration of subtropical plants to northern climates may not be too far-fetched if future global warming patterns mirror a monumental shift that took place in the past, new research by an international team of scientists suggests. The findings provide the first evidence that land plants changed drastically during a period of sudden global warming 55 million years ago.

Incentives to curb deforestation needed to counter climate change

Two billion tonnes of carbon enter atmosphere each year due to forest loss

Noting that deforestation accounts for 25 percent of all man-made emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2), FAO offered to provide data and technical advice to countries attending the UN climate change conference in Montreal to help them explore ways to create financial incentives for reducing forest loss in the developing world.

Forests urged as new front in global warming fight

Forest preservation should be the new front in the fight against global warming with Third World nations earning cash for protecting trees, tropical countries told a UN climate conference on Wednesday.

3) Forest and Climate Change Info & Events

United Nations Climate Change Conference COP 11 and COP/MOP 1

28 November to 9 December 2005

Palais des Congrès de Montréal, Canada

Canada hosted the historic first meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in Montreal in conjunction with the eleventh session of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention. The UNFCCC conference was the largest since the adoption of the Kyoto protocol and drew some 10.000 participants including governmental officials, international organisations and non-governmental organisations.

Issues addressed by the COP were principally technology development and transfer, capacity building, the five-year programme of work of the SBSTA on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, adverse effects of climate change on developing and least developed countries as well as budgetary issues. Finally, it was agreed on a process to develop future action for a succeeding commitment period of the Kyoto protocol, which will start in 2013.

A quick perspective on forestry related outcomes of COP 11 and COP/MOP 1

The first Meeting of the parties (COP/MOP 1) adopted important previous draft decisions, such as the Marrakech accords on LULUCF modalities under Kyoto protocol article 3.3, 3.4, the rules and modalities for AR CDM as well as the adoption of the Guide practice guidance for Land use, land use change and forestry as developed by the IPCC. Other important forestry related matters were the following:

Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: approaches to stimulate action. With a view for the second commitment period of the KP, the topic of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases by avoiding deforestation was brought re-introduced into the negotiations by a proposal by Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica; reducing deforestation would be a significant contribution by developing countries for mitigating climate change. SBSTA reached a general consensus that this topic should be dealt with after parties and accredited organizations submit their views on avoided deforestation until 31.03.2006.

Harvested wood products: SBSTA 23 took note on the submissions of parties regarding data and information on changes in carbon stocks and emissions of greenhouse gases from harvested wood products and experiences with the use of relevant guidelines and IPCC guidance (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2005/sbsta/eng/inf07.pdf). Consideration of this item will continue at SBSTA 24 (May 2006) and 25 (November 2006).

UNFCCC CDM EB: Approval of the first AR CDM methodology

During its 22 meeting from 23.-25.11.2005 the UNFCCC executive board approved the first baseline and monitoring methodology of the afforestation and reforestation CDM projectAR-AM0001 “Reforestation of degraded land”. The methodology is based on the draft CDM-AR-PDD “Facilitating Reforestation for Guangxi Watershed Management in Pearl River Basin, China” and can be found here: http://cdm.unfccc.int/EB/Meetings/022/eb22_repan17.pdf

SSC CDM Non renewable energy: The EB agreed to delete the references to "non-renewable biomass" in the "Indicative simplified baseline and monitoring methodologies for selected small-scale CDM project activity categories" (Appendix B of the simplified modalities and procedures for small-scale project activities). Public inputs received on alternative methods for calculating emission reductions for small-scale project activities that propose the switch from non-renewable to renewable biomass as well as background information can be found here: http://cdm.unfccc.int/public_inputs

Development of Models and Forest Soil Surveys for Monitoring of Soil Carbon

Workshop, April 5-8, 2006, Koli, Finland

This workshop will assess current methodological development focused on soil carbon monitoring applicable for large-scale inventories.

Sessions of the workshop will be focused on:

• National soil surveys in carbon monitoring - possibilities to improve current methodologies

Informal dialogue on the role of Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

Rotorura, New Zealand, 18-20. October 2005

Meeting report

Participants representing thirty-one countries and organisations attended the first meeting of the Informal Dialogue on the Role of Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

This informal dialogue on the role of Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) was intended to build better understanding of the current approaches to LULUCF under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. It provided an opportunity to share national experiences and lessons learned; and discuss ways to address land use management and climate change issues. The discussions focused on policy issues rather than technical matters.

The meeting revolved around three central themes relating to the role of LULUCF in the climate change response:

• Review of the treatment of Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) to date under the Convention, the Protocol and the IPCC guidelines.

• National experiences: lessons learned to date and cross-cutting issues.

• Land use management and climate change: issues and ways to address them, opportunities to reduce emissions and increase sinks.

4) New Publications

The Forestry Chronicle - Special Issue on Climate change impacts and adaptation

September/October 2005 Volume 81, Number 5

A special issue of the Forestry Chronicle contains articles from leaders in the field of climate change impacts and adaptation research providing scientific, economic, and policy perspectives on climate change and biodiversity in context of boreal forests. Some of the articles are available for downloading free of charge from the Canadian Forest Service On-line Bookstore. Alternatively, the articles are also available from the publisher The Forestry Chronicle, on a subscription basis.

UNEP-DNV CDM Guidebook

UNEP's Capacity Development for CDM Project (CD4CDM) has recently collaborated with DNV, an accredited Designated Operational Entity (DOE), to produce a new CDM guidebook entitled "CDM PDD Guidebook: Navigating the Pitfalls". The guidebook presents the 20 most common pitfalls DNV has noted in its validation of more than 50% of total CDM projects submitted for validation. It also provides a step-by-step guidance on how to fill the sections of a PDD, based on real instances of mistakes made in submissions by project developers. By producing this guidebook, CD4CDM is aiming at assisting project developers in developing countries improve their capacity in preparing high quality PDDs.

Adaptation of forest ecosystems and the forest sector to climate change

Forner, C. – Robledo, C. (2005)

FAO Forests and climate change working paper 2

Abstract: The document summarizes information that facilitates the definition and formulation of policies and projects aimed at decreasing vulnerability to climate change, with special emphasis on forest ecosystems and the social groups that depend on them. It emphasizes that adaptation to climate change must be part of a country’s development process, and that every adaptation action should be framed within the national development policies. The publication introduces the topic of climate change in the context of international policymaking, its relationship to sustainable development, and the most important environmental conventions of the United Nations system organizations. It provides a theoretical basis for responding to the problem of climate change, starting with a summary of the scientific knowledge accumulated so far. It presents a description and analysis of positive and negative impacts deriving from a changing climate, with emphasis on forest ecosystems, including a summary of methodologies for vulnerability analysis. Furthermore, it deals with international institutions and the challenges for institutional development at the national level, including the importance of adaptation policy as the framework for actions aimed at decreasing vulnerability. The stages in the process of adapting to climate change and their concrete application in the forest sector are presented, as well as examples of potential projects that cover the national, subnational and very local levels. A methodology for formulating such projects is also described. In conclusion, it is dealt with financing, while considering the limitations of UNFCCC it widens the spectrum to include all those entities and financial mechanisms that are interested in sustainable forest management.

5) Climate Change jobs

International START Secretariat - Post-Graduate Fellowship

START is a non-governmental global environmental change research and capacity building program based in Washington, DC, with regional offices in Bangkok, Beijing, Nairobi, New Delhi and Suva (see http://www.start.org).

Post-Graduate Fellowship tenable at the Washington, DC office of START, to assist in the development and implementation of START's global change research activities and capacity building in developing countries. This Fellowship is aimed at developing country students currently completing graduate degree programs in the US. The Fellowship term will be up to 12 months.

Responsibilities may include program coordination; preparation and synthesis of reports, including review of project proposals related to climate change and adaptation; project administration; and organization of international workshops.

Applicants should submit a letter of interest and resume, including the names and contact information of three references and sample of writing as soon as possible to:

CICERO: Senior Researcher

CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo) is seeking an individual for a position as full time Senior Researcher in the vulnerability, impacts and adaptation research programme.

Senior Researcher candidates will have experience in the fields of climate change impact studies. Experience with studies of vulnerability and adaptation will be an advantage. The successful candidate will have demonstrated an ability to work in an interdisciplinary setting; will preferably have a PhD in a relevant subject, international research experience, and a publication record in peer reviewed journals. The position is sought to be filled as soon as possible.

Carbon Asset Developer

Camco International is seeking to recruit a highly skilled and dynamic individual to expand the company’s business in the development of quality carbon assets for international emissions trading markets. Camco International is active in JI and CDM markets across the globe and is currently engaged on developing a portfolio of such assets from projects in China, Russia, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Kenya and Tanzania.

The role of the Carbon Asset Developer position now advertised will be to identify and realize opportunities for generating carbon credits from new international investments.

6) Websites of interest

The World Resources Institute (WRI) announces the release of version 3.0 of its Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT). CAIT is an interactive web-based information and analysis tool on global climate change.

CAIT offers a comprehensive and comparable database on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other indicators relevant to climate change policy. The new version includes updated data and a range of new features, listed below. A new beta module of CAIT, pertaining to U.S. states (CAIT-U.S.), is also now available on the CAIT website.

Global Land Project

The Global Land Project is a proposed joint research project for land systems for the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP). The Global Land Project Science Plan represents the research framework for the coming decade for land systems. This development of a research strategy is designed to better integrate the understanding of the coupled human-environment system. These integrated science perspectives reflect the recognition of the fundamental nature of how human activities on land are affecting feedbacks to the earth system and the response of the human-environment system to global change. The focus of the new project will be largely "land-centric" which includes the people, biota, and natural resources (air, water, plants, animals, and soil).

ENCOFOR Forest definition On-Line Analysis Tool

Global Analysis of Forest Definition on Land Area Eligible for Afforestation and Reforestation Activities in the CDM

The ENCOFOR Project (www.joanneum.at/encofor), working with the International Water Management Insitute, and the World Agroforestry Center, has produced an On-Line Analysis Tool to investigate the impact of forest definition on land available for CDM Afforestation / Reforestation within each of the Non-Annex I Countries.

Thank you for your contributions to this Issue: Mark Johnston, Thomas Hofer

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The objective of CLIM-FO-L is to be a forum for sharing current information and experiences about climate change and forestry amongst experts and non-experts. CLIM-FO-L will send periodically to subscribers synopsis of contributions, indicating how to obtain more detailed information on the topic. CLIM-FO-L is a service provided by the FAO Forest Resources Division, Forest Conservation Service (FORC).

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