This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Fish min raising the flop cbet within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; A fish & a min raise. Only one thing would make sense to me
PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted

Looks like he hit a pair of K's. Maybe he was slow playing you with AA. Maybe he is bluffing. What is the players history? What do you think is the probability of him bluffing there? I would definitely fold, unless I put a probability of 50% or more of him bluffing, which is unlikely.

#3

31st August 2017, 5:48 AM

Alucard [2,164]

Originally Posted by Gnikace

Looks like he hit a pair of K's. Maybe he was slow playing you with AA. Maybe he is bluffing. What is the players history? What do you think is the probability of him bluffing there? I would definitely fold, unless I put a probability of 50% or more of him bluffing, which is unlikely.

He is a total fish. Not the raising type though. As you can see VPIP is very high so sees a lot of flops. Likely would call any 3BB PFR.
And besides I have very little fold equity if I shoved since he has only a little left.

#4

31st August 2017, 6:32 AM

Gnikace [130]

re: Poker & $2 NLHE 6-max: Fish min raising the flop cbet

He sees much more flops than he should, always hoping to hit something at the flop.. But I don't know his playing post flop. Anyway, looks like this is finally one of the flops he was waiting for. Fold, lose 12. Shove and win, u profit 50, Shove and lose, u lose 50. 50*x - 50*(1-x) = -12. If you think you are winning more than 38% of the cases, shove. To simplify, if you think there is a chance equal or higher than 38% of him bluffing, shove. I'm sleepy, this is what I could think as a quick simple analysis... Anyway I think I would fold... Going to bed, it's too late.. What makes sense to you? Best regards

#5

31st August 2017, 6:41 AM

Gnikace [130]

The analysis is wrong... told you i'm sleepy... cause there is some chance u shove and he folds

#6

31st August 2017, 10:04 AM

Roockie4Life [40]

Online Poker at: PokerStars

Game: NLHE

I'd fold tbh, you only have 15 hands on him, but since he's played 85% of those hands and only raised 26%, you can assume he's passive trying to hit the flop. When he raises you (any size) IP, he has atleast top pair, probably 2pair (If I had to pick 1 hand to put him on, It'd be K5).
At these stakes, when people raise you IP, they are almost never bluffing

#7

5th September 2017, 11:44 AM

Figaroo2 [6,034]

Poker at: 888

Game: holdem

I don't cbet on this board you are in a way ahead / way behind situation.
Check call the flop and if he wants to bet again on the turn you know he probably has a K and you can release. It's unlikely any hand you beat would double barrel .
read this post where the concept is explained
https://www.cardschat.com/f50/wa-wb-concept-76525/

#8

5th September 2017, 12:16 PM

Alucard [2,164]

re: Poker & $2 NLHE 6-max: Fish min raising the flop cbet

Originally Posted by Figaroo2

I don't cbet on this board you are in a way ahead / way behind situation.
Check call the flop and if he wants to bet again on the turn you know he probably has a K and you can release. It's unlikely any hand you beat would double barrel .
read this post where the concept is explained
https://www.cardschat.com/f50/wa-wb-concept-76525/

Thanks for this. A very interesting read.
I've heard of the WA/WB theory before but never put much thought into it. I guess betting the flop is something like a muscle memory for me sometimes.
But doesn't it make things more difficult in the later streets?
It lets the Vs draw very cheaply. And could make better hands fold by bluffing. Specially if you are OOP.

#9

5th September 2017, 1:55 PM

KFlint [176]

It's important to have strong hands in your check calling range on the flop so you don't get run over on later streets
when you check, like top pair weak kicker, nut flush draw with one over, some kind of backdoors for example. And then you can check the QQ and not be easily exploited, not that fish would notice but against better players it helps. If an obvious draw hits and face agression on later streets, easy fold.

Fold with the raise here.

#10

5th September 2017, 2:15 PM

Figaroo2 [6,034]

Online Poker at: 888

Game: holdem

Apart from 34 there are no good draws on your flop. Pairs only have two outs to improve, there is little to worry about, if he has JT T9 etc and improves to a pair then we should get a street of value.
The main point is by checking you often win a bet from a hand that you beat that would have folded to a cbet, but you never get a better hand to fold here by cbetting.
If he has total air on that board, T9s for example, when you bet they fold. When you check you open their bluffing range and they usually take a stab with their whole range either on the flop or turn so you must call their first stab.
They don't usually bet again with air in case you were just pot controlling a weak king on the flop. They can't know you don't have a King and they are going to have to fire a biggish bluff to find out.
Most just give up and check it down from that point. If the flop and turn goes check check then bet the river and pick up a street of value from his 66-JJ
here is an example where they bet the turn with air and you pick up that bet you wouldn't have got by cbetting.
https://www.cardschat.com/showpost3796363-post2130.html

#11

5th September 2017, 3:04 PM

Alucard [2,164]

Figaroo please take a look at this. A case of WA/WB situation. I knew the V had an under pair with his check on the turn. But played passive on the river. Am I not loosing value here?

Yeah the doubling of the K on the river plus the turn check makes it much more likely he doesn't have a K. You could easily make a thin value bet here, something around half pot looks ok.
Your check got that bet out of him on the flop that you might not have gotton otherwise.