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By John Thorpe

It is my belief that, in one month, Ron Paul will shock the world and win the Iowa Caucuses.

Granted, that belief goes against all the polling data and all the money data and all the common sense in the world. Mitt Romney has all the money in the world, and has the national party secretly/silently pulling for him to win. Newt Gingrich has the lead in the polls and seems to have caught fire at just the right time. Michele Bachmann is from a neighboring state, and, well, you never know.

Even Rick Santorum has an outside shot at a decent showing, based on his practically living in the state this year.

But Ron Paul has the one thing that you cannot buy, you cannot fake, and you cannot manufacture: genuine enthusiasm and a team of dedicated volunteers. His team on the ground in Iowa is one of the best that has ever been assembled. Iowa Governor Terry Branstad doesn't think Paul will win outright, but sees him finishing in second place with a very solid 15 to 18 percent of the vote.

“Ron Paul has got probably the best organization and has a very loyal following. He's got more yard signs and bumper stickers than anybody else,” he said to Politico. “I don't think he'll win, but I think he will get 15 to 18 percent. The person who wins is going to probably get 25 percent plus.”

That very well may be the case, and much will depend on the next two debates and - oddly enough - the weather on caucus day. One, if he can continue to hammer down Gingrich's support, he can drive the race down to where the winner will be in his 15 to 18 percent range. If he does this, it will be by convincing Iowans that Gingrich is not the conservative he claims to be. (And, of course, Ron Paul would be correct — Newt Gingrich is actually to the left of Mitt Romney on many, many GOP issues).

Two, this will have the added effect of adding supporters to his own drive, as Gingrich's supporters literally have nowhere else to go. They want a conservative, and it seems that the only true conservative left in this race is Ron Paul. He could pick up a few more points here, which would push him over the top.

Third, as I mentioned, the weather can have a tremendous impact on the Iowa Caucuses. Unlike a primary election, where one's commitment to the process is only as long as one's line to vote, a caucus can last all night long. Iowans have to travel to someone's home or a small, local center (like a church or a rec center) to engage in an hours-long debate on who to support. There are rounds of voting, eliminations of candidates, and tedious speeches. It's a long, drawn-out affair. It is one thing to support a candidate; it is quite another to go through THAT process to support the candidate.

If you add to that process a snowstorm, or just plain bad weather (and really, Iowa in January, is there anything other than bad weather?) you change the game significantly. You make it such that only the most dedicated supporters will show up, drudging through a foot of snow and subzero temperatures to deal with the caucuses. Those supporters? Ron Paul fans.