Warriors draft update: Keeping #7, looking at Barnes and Zeller, and the current most likely scenarios

-Short-attention-span reading, and writing…
For now, it’s just a hint here, an inkling there–NBA Draft whispers and educated pass-alongs from cellphone to cellphone.

However, with just over a week to go before the Warriors are on the clock June 28 for their No. 7 overall selection I think I can do some narrowing down.

Though they’ve explored many options, the Warriors are unlikely to trade the pick, according to several league sources.

General manager Bob Myers and his staff have looked around for an established small forward, a move up to the second overall pick or possibly a move down to the middle of the round.

But at this point No. 7 just isn’t valuable enough for the big strike.

Better to use it than to push themselves and the pick into a forced trade.

* No surprise, the Warriors like several of the wing players expected to go in the first six picks—Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Florida’s Bradley Beal and North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes.

But multiple sources say that the Warriors front office soured on Kentucky’s Terrence Jones and Baylor’s Perry Jones III after the two ‘tweener-forwards were unimpressive in last week’s group workout.

Meanwhile, Warriors ownership has apparently indicated that drafting a big man with the seventh pick would be its preference if there isn’t a standout at any other position.

Which leads to…

Scenario 1: If a top wing player unexpectedly slips to the Warriors, they’ll take him in a blink.
Barnes seems to be the likeliest candidate for a drop to the seventh slot after two good college seasons and one horrible tournament performance last spring.
There’s a lot to like about Barnes (scoring ability, athleticism), but maybe not a lot to love (no premier skill, questionable defense), and teams in the top six might fall in love with other perimeter players.

Either way, if he gets to the Warriors, Barnes–the treasured “best available player” pick–probably would be penciled in as the starting small forward right away.

In this situation, I’d expect the Warriors to look to trade incumbent starter Dorell Wright for salary-cap relief and maybe future draft picks.

Scenario 2: If form holds and no top-tier wing drops to them, the Warriors’ pick could be another North Carolina product–big man Tyler Zeller.

Zeller wouldn’t be a sexy choice, and he doesn’t project to be a starting NBA center. But Zeller can rebound, shoot and run and figures to be an immediate producer backing up both post positions.

Remember, both Andrew Bogut and David Lee finished last season on the injured list, Andris Biedrins can’t be counted on even for cameo minutes, and Jeremy Tyler remains a large question mark.

For now, it sounds like the Warriors brass has Zeller ranked ahead of the other second- or third-tier big men, including Illinois’ Meyers Leonard and North Carolina’s John Henson.

* One name to erase from consideration at No. 7 and probably well beyond that: Ohio State power forward Jared Sullinger wasn’t high on the Warriors list to begin with, but now has been pushed to the bottom of consideration after receiving a red flag on his back from NBA doctors.
I’m not sure the Warriors would use even their 30th overall pick on Sullinger at this point.

* There are more possibilities for the Warriors with the seventh pick, depending on how the first six picks go and who wins the debate in the draft room.

I’m not saying there’s currently a consensus favored candidate for the Warriors—as there was last year with Klay Thompson–because I don’t believe there is that kind of clarity this year.

If mercurial Connecticut big man Andre Drummond slips out of the top six, he surely will have some support—and some skeptics—in the Warriors draft room.

Weber State point guard Damian Lillard, an Oakland product, also could be an intriguing topic of conversation for Warriors executives.

And there are suggestions around the league that Jerry West has a dark horse candidate or two, always an entertaining staple of front-office conjecture.

But for now, let’s start with a base assumption: If Harrison Barnes slips through, the Warriors would be happy to take him, and if he doesn’t, Tyler Zeller is the big-man fall-back.

Until everything changes, then changes 15 more times, until we could all end up back where we started.

“They need a player who can step into the rotation today, not a few years from now.”

This kind of thinking is what kept the Warriors down for 30 years. Todd Fuller? Oh, yeah, he’s ready to go from day 1!

michaeld

#49
Poor drafting, bad signings, misguided hirings, weird coach/player rifts, the notion that they were always “one or two players away” when they needed a complete roster overhaul, thrifty ownership, being the only team in pro sports that can count on profit without the pressure of winning and a many other things have ” kept the Warriors down for 30 years. ”

But for the gotcha/2007/new fan set it always comes back to Todd Fuller. Good thing they keep airing that “biggest busts in draft history” show or you’d have no misinformed comparisons to make.

solomonwilcox

Hey Tim… how about #7 and Dorell Wright to Cavs for #5 to draft Harrison Barnes?

Chad Ford saying Cavs want to move out of the spot. If Beal is gone for them @ #5, they can still pick up Dion Waiters to pair with Irving as well as Wright.

Nipper

Please no projects! Why feed the bench or the D League? Stay away from Euro players.

jsteez

Zellers at 7 is actually quite funny. Thanks for the laugh, TK.

The key will be if Dion Waiters goes in the top-6. He’s a stud, but if we took him at 7, that moves Klay Thompson to the 3, and he’s better suited to the 2. Still, I’d rather take Waiters than a scrub back-up 4 or 5.

We need scoring < defense. MKG would be ideal, but we'd need to trade up to #3 or #4 get him. Barnes could be great or bust-worthy… I think he'll be Rudy Gay, part deux.

If we trade down, how about Quincy Miller at SF? 6'10, great reach, coming off great production despite a recovering knee, 19 years old, can shoot and handle. No guarantees, but he could be solid.

nicksd

Trade Steph and Wright to CHA for the #2 pick take MKG

Take Lilard at 7, go big at 30 (Melo), PF early in the second (Gordon), draft and stash with the last pick

I’m with PDiddy and Son of A. I would love to see the Logo has identified the future greatness of Royce White and Arnett Moultrie.

The problem is that with the #7 and #30, they are not in ideal position to draft either one of them. #7 is much too early, #30 much too late. A trade with Houston would be the best scenario. The W’s #7, #30, and DWright for their #14 & #16, would be perfect.

I think the F.O. is doing the best thing in waiting. The #7 pick doesn’t seem so valuable at this time. But, after the Draft starts and someone falls (Barnes, Drummond, Lilliard, Beal) the phone is sure to be ringing. I’m just glad that it ISN’T Larry Riley who will be picking that phone up.

Jeremy

“Meanwhile, Warriors ownership has apparently indicated that drafting a big man with the seventh pick would be its preference if there isn’t a standout at any other position”

This is exactly the mentality that led to drafting Fuller, Foyle, and O’Bryant. This is how a team can manage to fail miserably at drafting a star year in and year out despite many chances to take one. This is the same mentality that led to keeping Beidrins “because guys with size always have value.”

Tyler Zeller? At #7? That’s the worst player I’ve heard them linked to all offseason. They may get a better player at #30! He’ll be a career backup and the Warriors can find that late in the 1st.

They have a starting five now that forces teams to start taking them seriously, but if this is how they’re spending lottery picks it’ll be very short lived. Then it’s back to laughingstock and more high picks to use on the next Fuller.

PDiddy

If Jerry West likes a player like Royce White then don’t worry about taking him too high at #7 due to all the draft “know it all’s’ who have him pegged to go in the mid to late first round. For example, Elden Campbell was taken with the last 1st RD pick (#27 overall) in the 1990 draft and if you re-did it after what is all said and done he would easily be a top 5 pick (Payton, Coleman, Kukoc, etc would figure in that top 5). I just saw a twitter post by Chad Ford on ESPN.com about White and how he has a promise from the Celtics at #21 but the W’s love him too but #7 too high to take him. Screw the C’s, let’s take him at #7 and let us be the “smart” ones to grab him when we could. If the W’s feel that is too high for White, then I would not be all that disappointed if they grabbed Moultrie at #7. He could match up nicely against Durant down the road.

BananaSpartan

Want to get bold? Trade the #7 pick and David Lee to Miami for Dwayne Wade. I think Miami is one team that would like another big guy who can run the court.

Actually, I would trade the #7 pick and both 2nd round picks if that could get rid of both Lee and Biedrens this summer. The sooner those 2 come off the books, the better.

BananaSpartan

Let me ask this, because this to me tells how good a team really is. What would it take for the Warriors to acquire the #1 pick (Anthony Davis)? I’m not advocating that they should, but there are teams that could offer NO something they couldn’t pass up for that #1 pick.

I’ll take a shot at it (I think NO is under the cap so they could take back a lot).

Warriors would trade the #7 pick, both 2nd round picks, Steph Curry, and Klay Thompson. I think NO would do it. Maybe. Depends on Curry’s ankle and latest tests and results.

Again, I’m not saying I’d do it, just a measuring stick. There are other teams who could make obvious trades that NO would take (Miami trades LeBron for #1, OKC trades Durant for #1), but those teams wouldn’t trade those players straight up for the #1, but they could if they wanted.

I do feel Anthony Davis could be as good as Tim Duncan. Davis, to me, is a player who could really benefit playing 3 years in college. He’d be very polished, and he’d be about 10-15 pounds heavier. Right now, Davis is going to be a bit undersized and he’s going to be playing for a terrible team. I hope he doesn’t get forced into playing 40 minutes a game because he’ll get beaten up this season.