Posted!

Join the Nation's Conversation

Egyptian support for Muslim Brotherhood wanes

Sarah Lynch, Special for USA TODAY
10:32 p.m. EDT March 31, 2013

Amid Egypt's mounting problems, support for the the 85-year-old Islamic fundamentalist group is dwindling.

An Egyptian protester's placard depicts a U.S. dollar with a picture of President Mohammed Morsi on March 5 in Cairo. The Egyptian pound continues to fall against the U.S. dollar.(Photo: Nasser Nasser, AP)

Story Highlights

Has the "demise of the Islamist project" begun?

The Islamist Brotherhood was swept into power after Hosni Mubarak's ouster

ASWAN, Egypt — In the charming Nile-side city of Aswan hundreds of miles from the country's capital, many lament the nation's crippled state. The economy is teetering toward collapse, unemployment is on the rise, unrest in the streets is rife and security is largely absent.

"The Muslim Brotherhood hasn't done anything since they came to power," said Aswan resident and tour guide Mahmoud El Komy. "And things are getting worse."

Many looked to the Brotherhood and President Mohammed Morsi, who rose through the ranks of the group, to govern the country after the uprising that ousted dictator Hosni Mubarak in 2011.

But amid Egypt's mounting problems, support for the the 85-year-old Islamic fundamentalist group is dwindling.

Egypt is witnessing "the beginning of the demise of the Islamist project," said Khaled Fahmy, professor and chair of the history department at the American University in Cairo.

Egyptian protesters drag a wounded supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood on March 22 during clashes near the Islamist group's headquarters in Cairo.(Photo: Khalil Hamra, AP)

In the first post-revolution parliamentary vote that ended in January 2012, the Muslim Brotherhood's political wing won 47% of seats — the most of any party. Morsi, the former head of the political arm, won the presidential election in June.

Morsi's approval ratings were as high as 79% in September have dipped to 49%, according to a poll by the Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research (Baseera). In mid-March, the Brotherhood lost control of the Pharmacists Syndicate — one of many unions in Egypt — after an internal vote, and was defeated by independents and liberals in recent student union elections.

"It gives us indicators as to how the situation has changed on the ground — how the popularity of the Muslim Brothers has decreased dramatically in the last couple of months," said Kholoud Saber, deputy director of the Association for Freedom of Thought and Expression, who followed the student elections closely.

Analysts and ordinary Egyptians cite numerous reasons for what appears to be waning support, including a fraught economy that affects all swathes of the country, including Upper Egypt, where support for the Brotherhood has traditionally been high.

Since the Arab Spring uprising, the nation has seen a dramatic drop in investment amid widespread instability. Foreign currency reserves dropped from $36 billion to almost $13 billion over the past two years. And the value of the Egyptian pound continues to fall against the U.S. dollar. The nation faces fuel shortages. Tourism is down. Basic food prices are up, and so is the rate of unemployment.

"I like Morsi as a person," said Mohammad Ibrahim, 67, sitting in a modest rural home. "But the country is not running properly."

To help quell its financial problems, Egypt is seeking a $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. But the government may need to engage robust economic reforms including subsidy cuts and tax increases that would lead to price hikes on staples like food and fuel, further aggravating Egyptians.

Standing inside his father's tourist shop, Aswan resident Mohamed Youssef Ahmed Khalil Agag held a loaf of bread. "This is what we are fighting for," he said.

The rural southern half of the country known as Upper Egypt is home to 40% of Egyptians but 80% of the nation's severely poor, the World Bank says. More than half the people here are younger than 29.

The region has long suffered from developmental neglect, high illiteracy rates and job shortages. With economic troubles and an ongoing lull in the tourist industry, life here has grown especially hard for people in cities like Aswan and Luxor, where tourism is a main source of income.

At some of the nation's most majestic sites — from the grand temples at Abu Simbel to the Valley of the Kings — the number of tourists remains low as many visitors stay away from unrest. Egyptians also complain that a largely useless security network is failing to protect both tourists and citizens.

"No one understands Morsi now," said Alhag Ramadan, a tourist shop owner who voted for Morsi last year but now questions the president's intentions. "He sings the same song many times and makes promises to people but does nothing."

Analyst Fahmy said many are disappointed that the Brotherhood has failed to implement serious political reform including that of the state security sector. Instead, the government is continuing the repressive policies of Mubarak's era.

But others say the Brotherhood can't be judged so soon.

"No one has allowed the government to work," said Methat Gamal, 42, who is part of the local ethnic Nubian community. "There are labor strikes and struggles, so they haven't had a chance yet."

Still, like many others here, Gamal hasn't decided whom to support in the next parliamentary vote, which had been expected in late April but has been postponed.

Director of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) in Aswan, Mohamed Abdel Fattah El Karrar, acknowledges support for the group may be waning.

"The problem is the media," El Karrar said. "The lies the media says every day affect people and make them move against the Muslim Brotherhood."

El Karrar also blames a drop in production levels because of labor strikes and said some may be disappointed because they had high expectations for change after the uprising.

But falling support for the group on the ground doesn't mean the Brotherhood won't do well in elections, especially given movement's ability to coordinate campaigns with its core of dedicated men. Based on its interaction with Egyptians through charity work, the FJP estimates it will win 40% of votes in the next parliamentary poll, El Karrar said.

And at least for now there is a lack of competition for the FJP. The liberal secular opposition cannot unify behind one leader or set of views, so its supporters may spread their votes among several candidates. The Salafis, who hold staunchly radical Islamic views, appear to represent even close to a majority of the population. Even so, they may have a chance given that some say they don't care who is in charge as long as life improves.

"It doesn't matter who is ruling the country — if he is from the Muslim Brotherhood or not," Gamal said. "The main issue is if they can control the country, help the country develop and find jobs for young people."