ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111910
SPC MCD 111910
MDZ000-VAZ000-112015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111910Z - 112015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE VA TIDEWATER AND SRN TIP OF DELMARVA PENINSULA.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE VA TIDEWATER AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH RESULTING IN
STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AIRMASS ACROSS ERN
NC AND ERN VA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS MOIST AIRMASS HAS SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THESE AREAS
FROM OFF OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL THE
CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS EAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE QUITE STRONG WITH LATEST AKQ VWP
INDICATED NEAR 60KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LEWP
STRUCTURE MOVING INTO NERN NC TOWARD VA BORDER ATTM SUGGEST THAT
LONG-LIVED ROTATING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ADVANCING QLCS. THUS...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.
..CARBIN/THOMPSON.. 01/11/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 37807736 38387660 38427512 36557576 36577838 37807736
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