“Many investors had expected department stores to enjoy robust sales over the holidays in light of a U.S. economy buoyed by low unemployment, higher wages, strong consumer confidence and cheap gas.” Lackluster results from Macy’s and Kohl’s sent “retail stocks into a tailspin… calling into question whether such mall-based chains can compete in a changing landscape where shoppers are shifting more of their spending online.”

“Black Friday” sales edged up just 0.2%. That figure may understate holiday spending. This year, many retailers began Christmas promotions before Thanksgiving. Sales during the first two weeks of November rose about 6.1%. This may explain why sales were up so little on the day after Thanksgiving when retailers traditionally move into the black and begin turning a profit for the year. Bloomberg notes that “estimates for holiday sales vary from little changed to increases of as much as 4.5 percent.”

Barron’s predicts upbeat holiday sales and a brighter retail forecast for 2011. “American consumers are flexing their wallets again.” The magazine believes retail holiday sales will rise 3.5% to 4%, and the overall U.S. economy could expand by up to 4% in 2011.