Solar Cost Less than Half of What EIA Projected

Skeptics of renewables sometimes cite data from EIA (The US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) or from the IEA (the OECD’s International Energy Agency). The IEA has a long history of underestimating solar and wind that I think is starting to be understood.

The US EIA has gotten more of a pass. The analysts at EIA are, I’m certain, doing the best job they can to make reasonable projections about the future. But, time and again, they’re wrong. Solar prices have dropped far faster than they projected. And solar has been deployed far faster than they’ve projected.

That’s substantially below the price of ~$70/mwh for new natural gas power plants, or $87/mwh for new coal plants.

And the prices continue to drop.

The reality is that solar prices in the market are less than half of what the EIA projected three weeks ago.

When you hear numbers quoted from EIA or IEA, take this into account. As well-meaning as they may be, their track record in predicting renewables is poor, and it always errs on the side of underestimating the rate of renewable progress.