Case-Shiller House Prices – A Tale of 20 Cities

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes were released today with data through January for the 10 and 20 city composites (and component cities). The national index, which is calculated quarterly, and the Charlotte, NC metropolitan area, due to delays in data reporting, were not included in the release.

The composites were both down 0.8 percent from December, according to the non-seasonally adjusted data. Some of the decline is clearly seasonal, after strong mid-year gains, but the overall trend for these two indexes in 2009-2011 has been modestly negative.

Among the 20 component cities, results were mixed. While only 3 cities posted positive gains in January, most of the declines were embedded in strong seasonal patterns, and 12 cities remained above earlier troughs. Phoenix and Miami, among the most notorious bubble markets, were 2 of the 3 gainers along with Washington, DC, the most consistent performer since its early 2009 trough.

More broadly, house prices in Denver, Boston, Detroit, Cleveland and Dallas continued to oscillate in the narrow ranges they’ve occupied since 2009, while prices in Las Vegas and Tampa trended down unabated, although at slower paces since 2009. The most troubling patterns in today’s release are the declining prices in the California markets that threaten to reverse what appeared to be promising recoveries, and the possible re-acceleration of price declines in the Atlanta market.

For the full histories of the 20 markets included in the Case-Shiller composite, click here cs.

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