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July 9, 2007

Red Sox Since June 4: 16-16

I'm not a big number cruncher but the lost weekend in Detroit prompted me to open Excel to try and make sense of what the Sox have been doing since they flew to Oakland on June 4.

In short, Boston's pedestrian 16-16 record since then can largely be attributed to its performance against five teams which -- for whatever reason -- got really hot: Detroit, Seattle, Texas, Colorado, and San Diego.

Those five teams were .504 on June 4 (82-win pace) and .591 on July 8 (96-win pace).

The Red Sox went 5-11 (.300) against them. All other teams went 58-80 (.420) against them.

During the 34-day period -- Monday, June 4 (at Oakland) to Sunday July 8 (at Detroit) -- the Sox played 32 games against 10 teams and went 16-16.

Boston's record against opponents other than the Hot Five: 11-5 (.688) (111-winpace)

And, if you're still reading: Number of cross country flights Boston took in 34 days: Four (Boston to Oakland, Arizona to Boston, Atlanta to San Diego, Seattle to Boston)

*****

Thanks Pete!

Also, since June 4:

The MFY went 18-13 and gained 2 games in the standings (12.5 to 10.5). At this pace, it will take New York roughly 188 games to catch Boston this season. (Take that, Murray Chass!)

25 comments:

Well, that didn't give me the impending sense of doom that I had for most of last year, but I'm not exactly excited to see those numbers.

I was even less excited to hear that the Sox record was identical at this point last year. So it is that the Sox have been on a tear or just that the AL East stinks this year (present company excepted, obviously).

I remember reading (maybe here last year?) that leaving men stranded is an inevitable consequence of having a good offense. Usually, a high LOB number has a corresponding high runs scored number to go with it.

I see we are current 8th in the Majors in runs scored, and within easy striking distance of 5 of those. Detroit's runs scored is just ridiculous.

Sure, you're likely to leave more runners on if you put more on, so it really depends on your comparative average with men on. Go to ESPN.com and scroll down their team batting splits. I was surprised until I got to 'with bases loaded.' As bad as my eyes were telling me.

This is true, but I don't think you should discount the importance of luck. Whether it's on a West Coast swing, Mother's Day at Fenway, or whatever. No matter how good or bad you are, there is always an element of luck (or 'chance' if you prefer).

Those four games I mentioned in Seattle and Detroit could have turned on any number of small chances. Two of them could have been much different if Coco had made dramatic catches in CF, for instance (something he's done how many times this season?). Seattle and Detroit may have still won both, but play would have continued.

I agree that in the end, it's the record that counts. But if you play well and lose, you can still hold your head high and expect to win the next one.

As for trading...hey, I'd like to see the burl man too, but other than that, what exactly do you recommend theo do? The weakest spot I can think of reasonably replacing (taking Lugo and drew out of it because let's face it...no) is lowell, and that's just because of his second half downturn. AND the only good replacement in my mind would be miguel, and we aren't getting him unless we give up everyone in the minor leagues, i'm guessing.

The other one that immediately comes to mind is the rally from four (?) down against the Yankees (first game against them of the season? April?), featuring the game-tying 2-RBI triple down the first-base line by Coco Crisp off Rivera; Crisp soon after scored the go-ahead run in the 8th on Cora's single over a drawn-in infield. Okajima closed for his first save in the major leagues.

Well, it’s an honor to see a summary of my little research project, and all these informed comments on such a great site.

As Mr. Parcells says, “nobody wants to hear your excuses,” but just to keep things interesting, I will stake out a couple of positions.

1. The effects of so much cross country travel should not be underestimated. To go 5-5 (Texas, Tampa Bay, Detroit) after four such trips in less than a month is not bad. During the same time period, Detroit played exclusively in the Eastern and Central time zones and went 20-10.

2. Given the opposition and other factors – injuries to Schilling and Youkilis to name one - if the Sox had won just three more games – say 1 at home against Colorado, 1 at home against Texas, and 1 at either Seattle or Detroit – this stretch of the season could reasonably be called a success. The fact that they did not win those games means only that they slightly under performed, not that they had a bad month.