The world needs U.S. to participate in climate change actions: U of T political scientist

Jun 5, 2017
| Noreen Ahmed-Ullah

U.S. President Donald Trump announces his decision Thursday for the United States to pull out of the Paris climate agreement (photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the Paris
climate agreement faced sweeping criticism Friday as world leaders
spoke out against what many fear will be a major setback
in efforts to curb global warming.

Some of the fiercest comments came from Europe where
leaders had made personal appeals to Trump to stick with the
195-nation accord. They affirmed Friday that the U.S. could not
unilaterally renegotiate the 2015 agreement. French
President Emanuel Macron, in a live televised address,
said that “on the climate there is no plan B because there
is no planet B.”

“The U.S. withdrawal is an opportunity for Canada to be a
global leader on climate,” says Matthew Hoffmann, professor
of political science at U of T Scarborough.

U of T News spoke with Hoffmann, who is affiliated
with the Munk School of Global Affairs, about how, ultimately,
the global response to climate change needs the U.S. to participate
because it's the second largest producer of greenhouse
gases.

What does this mean? What's the fallout from the U.S.
exiting the Paris Agreement?

It’s a terrible day for the global response to climate change
when the U.S. rejects the keystone international agreement and does so
almost gleefully with justifications full of misinformation.

However, in the short-term, U.S. withdrawal may matter little to
the functioning of the Paris Agreement. The decentralized nature of
the agreement insulates it to some extent from the recalcitrance or
absence of any one party. In addition, the immediate reaction from
around the world has been a reaffirming of countries’
commitments to the Paris Agreement and to acting on climate change. So
the U.S. withdrawal could generate some momentum. Beyond
countries’ reactions, a number of cities, U.S. states and
corporations are vocally pledging to keep moving ahead on climate
change despite Trump’s decision.

Long-term, the
Paris Agreement needs the U.S. if it is to be an effective agreement
in the sense of achieving its goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees.
However, the U.S. withdrawal will take at least three years to take
effect and will thus likely be a key element of both the 2018
congressional elections and the 2020 presidential elections in the
U.S.

Is this unexpected or was it
a given based on his attitude toward climate change?

This is not unexpected.

It was a very visible campaign pledge, and it fits with the Trump
administration’s pattern of hostility towards climate action and
international cooperation. There was much made of inter-administration
debate, but it seems likely that the U.S. withdrawal was a given upon
Trump’s election.

What does this mean for
Canada? Do we continue on with our Paris-related targets and the
government's carbon tax proposal? Or does this mean we re-examine the
agreement as do other countries?

The immediate
reaction from the Prime Minister and Minister of the Environment has
been to express disappointment in the U.S. decision and to reaffirm
that Canada will continue to push forward on climate policy. I suspect
that the Canadian government will continue with their commitments and
the pan-Canadian framework. The government sees a great deal of
opportunity in pursuing the low-carbon economy and renewable energy.
The U.S. withdrawal is an opportunity for Canada to be a global leader
on climate.

However, there will be uncertainty.
The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner, and the U.S. could
also face some economic ramifications being so isolated on the climate
issue. There will be challenging times ahead for the
government.

Can the world realistically
target carbon emissions without the involvement of the U.S.?

Long-term, the global response to climate change needs the U.S. to
participate as it is the second largest emitter of greenhouse
gases.

But that is a different question than needing the federal
government to be a leader. Already U.S. states and cities are pledging
to take up the mantle of leadership in the U.S., and hopefully they
will be able to sustain momentum until the Trump administration is
voted out or they come to their senses on climate change.

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