Red Sox: Astros will be a handful in ALCS

Thursday

Oct 11, 2018 at 8:11 PMOct 12, 2018 at 3:03 PM

By Nick Friar@Nick_Friar

Towards the end of the regular season, I spoke with a player on another MLB team about the America League playoff picture and he said there was only one team capable of beating the Red Sox. That team happens to be the one coming to town on Saturday.

The reigning World Series champion Houston Astros have an offense that can give the Red Sox pitching staff fits and their starting rotation is electric.

Justin Verlander looks like his old Cy Young Award-winning self (2.52 ERA, 290 strikeouts in 214 innings). Gerrit Cole took a major step forward this season and could have been a No. 1 on most staffs (2.88 ERA, 276 strikeouts in 200 1/3 innings). Dallas Keuchel was the fourth starter, but could be a No. 2 or a very good No. 3 elsewhere (3.74 ERA, 153 strikeouts in 204 2/3 innings). Then there’s Charlie Morton, who was lowest among the foursome in innings pitched (167) but still struck out 201 batters and had the 14th lowest ERA (3.13) in all of Major League Baseball. Again, he’s the Astros third or fourth best starter, has the third lowest ERA in that group, and still had a better ERA than most qualifying starting pitchers across all of baseball.

That’s a little more intimidating than Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Rick Porcello. Oh, and can’t forget your game two opener, David Price. Yes, he’s the opener until he proves he can make it past the second inning again.

However, one thing the Red Sox have going for them heading into this series is the bullpen appears to be back on track. This group has always had the capability of getting the job done, but it’s been a major roll of the dice by Dave Dombrowski.

One player he’s gambled on that he was clearly right on is Ryan Brasier. His appearance in Game 1 of the ALDS wasn’t ideal, but it turns out that was just him showing his humanity. Because his Game 2 and 4 performances were lights out.

With Brasier being the most reliable reliever right now thanks to Craig Kimbrel’s heart attack appearance in Game 4, the Red Sox have Matt Barnes to handle the sixth and seventh, Brasier for the seventh or eighth, Kimbrel, who’s been able to do the bare minimum and at least maintain the lead in each appearance, and Joe Kelly, who was outstanding in Game 2 and the reason things didn’t get out of hand.

Honestly, that’s a legitimate bullpen. Hopefully, for the Red Sox’ sake, they can keep it together enough to win four more games (and then another four).

Now, as much as the Red Sox' pitching staff is a bit concerning, much less so than it was prior to the ALDS, there’s no doubt the offense is the team's bread and butter. And as impressive as the Astros’ staff is, Boston has the best offense in baseball, with two of the top-three MVP candidates in its lineup.

Can’t ask for much more than a home run, six RBI, .357 average and .992 OPS in a four-game stretch from J.D. Martinez. I’ll get to the other MVP candidate in a minute, but Xander Bogaerts launched a home run, knocked in a pair of runs and hit .294 with a .786 OPS. He and Andrew Benintendi (.286 average, .802 OPS and three RBI) continue to be underrated, despite playing vital roles on offense. Especially Bogaerts, who provides outstanding protection behind Martinez.

Which brings me back to the most important individual in the series: Mookie Betts, who wasn’t exactly a major factor in the ALDS, only hitting .188 with a .566 OPS, 2 RBI and a double. He hasn’t exactly been a force in his postseason career. He hit .313 in the ALDS last year, but he only hit .200 in 2016. And he has yet to hit a home run in 42 postseason at-bats.

But this might be the series where Betts breaks out. There was a lot of pressure on him in 2016 and 2017 as the team’s best player, which carried over into the recent ALDS given the results of the previous two. He doesn’t have to carry the weight of the world on his shoulders though, because he has players around him who can contribute and the Red Sox made it over the ALDS hump for the first time since 2013.

And whether he plays well or not will dictate the fate of this series. If Betts maintains his current level of play, the Red Sox are done. Conversely, if he breaks out, they could win in five.

Speaking of predictions, the Red Sox will win in seven, mark it down.

Follow along with Nick Friar’s Inside Pitch Blog throughout the postseason: http://blogs.southcoasttoday.com/inside-pitch/ and on Twitter @Nick_Friar

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