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It’s the latest in a series of polls that show widespread opposition to efforts by the House GOP and President Donald Trump to rollback Barack Obama’s signature law, but it is easily the most negative. | AP Photo

Poll: Majority of voters oppose GOP health bill

A majority of voters disapprove of GOP efforts to replace the 2010 health care law on the eve of an uncertain House vote set for Thursday, according to a new poll.

The Quinnipiac University poll, released Thursday afternoon, shows fewer than one-in-five voters, 17 percent, approve of the Republican plan to replace Obamacare. The majority, 56 percent, disapprove, with slightly more than a quarter, 26 percent, undecided on the proposal.

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It’s the latest in a series of polls that show widespread opposition to efforts by the House GOP and President Donald Trump to rollback Barack Obama’s signature law, but it is easily the most negative.

Despite the support of Trump and House GOP leaders, Republican voters are ambivalent about the measure. Forty-one percent approve of the bill, but another 24 percent oppose it. More than a third of GOP voters, 35 percent, are undecided — a greater percentage of undecideds than either among Democratic (16 percent) or independent (28 percent) voters.

Democratic voters overwhelmingly oppose the bill, which is identified in the poll question as a Republican-drafted plan. Four-in-five Democratic voters say they disapprove of the bill, while only 3 percent approve of it. And independent voters tilt heavily against it: 14 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove.

Moreover, opponents of the bill are more enthusiastic than supporters, the poll shows. While 43 percent of voters say they strongly disapprove of the bill, only 6 percent strongly approve of it.

The Trump administration and House GOP leadership have called the bill the only chance to repeal the Affordable Care Act, which has been more unpopular than popular for most of the seven years since it was enacted. But voters overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump’s handling of health care — 61 percent disapprove, versus only 29 percent who approve — and a slight, 51-percent majority say he should not support any effort to repeal the existing law.

Overall, Trump’s approval rating in the poll is just 37 percent, compared to 56 percent of voters who disapprove — figures that threaten his political capital, particularly in politically competitive districts. Over the past few days, a number of centrist Republicans — some of whom hold competitive seats — have said publicly they will vote against the measure.

Forty-six percent of voters say they would be less likely to vote for their representative or senator if he or she supported the GOP health care bill, according to the poll — including a 52-percent majority of independents. Only 19 percent of voters say it would make them more likely to support their member — and nearly as many GOP voters say it wouldn’t make a difference (41 percent) as say it would make them more likely to vote to reelect their incumbent (43 percent).

The poll also shows more voters think the bill will make the health care system worse, even if fewer believe it will have a negative impact on their own care. The overwhelming majority of voters, 85 percent, say it’s “very important” that health insurance be affordable for all Americans. And 61 percent think fewer Americans will have health insurance than under the current law — as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has also projected.

But asked what effect it would have on their own care, half say it would not have much impact. More, 30 percent, say it would have a negative impact than the just 12 percent who say it would impact them positively, however.

Voters are also rejecting two of the bill’s specific provisions, the poll shows. Sixty-one percent oppose cutting off federal government funding for Planned Parenthood, and 74 percent oppose decreasing funding for Medicaid.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted March 16-21, surveying 1,056 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

On balance, public polls have showed more Americans oppose the GOP bill than support it. A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, released earlier this week, showed voters more divided on the bill — but that support had waned over the past week as a potential vote in the House drew nearer.