The Polling Report for November 2, 2018

A new NPR/PBS News Hours/Marist Poll finds that Democrats lead Republicans by nine points on the generic congressional ballot, 52% to 43% among likely voters nationwide.

“Americans have already voted in record numbers in many states in this year’s midterm elections, confirming the heightened interest in the fight for control of Congress and state houses playing out in dozens of bitterly contested races,” the Washington Post reports.

“With less than a week remaining until Election Day, voters in at least 17 states surpassed overall early and absentee voting numbers from 2014… In some cases, early and absentee vote totals are on track to double since four years ago.”

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters in battleground congressional districts finds Democrats maintain a strong position to retake the U.S. House, but the party’s base of less-frequent voters and concerns about illegal immigration stand out as wild cards in the final days before Tuesday’s midterm election.

Across 69 congressional districts identified by the Cook Political Report and The Post as competitive in late August, the Post-Schar School poll finds 50% of likely voters support the Democratic candidate, while 46% support the Republican.

Amy Walter: “The most recent polling suggests that Republicans haven’t ‘solved’ their independent voter problem. The Marist/PBS poll showed Democrats leading among independents on the generic ballot by 10 points. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats leading the generic by 14 points. This is in line with the last three midterm wave elections (2006, 2010, and 2014), in which the winning party carried independents by 12 to 19 points.”

“A new Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted over the past fractious, violent week shows a majority of voters think that President Trump has done more to divide the country than unite it since he took office last year — but that the national news media are even worse.

“Just 3 in 10 voters, 30 percent, said Trump has done more to unite the country, compared with 56 percent who said he’s done more to divide it. Even more voters, 64 percent, said the media have done more to divide the country, while only 17 percent say they have done more to unite it.”