In a press release Thursday, NASA highlighted a “summer of advancements” with the three companies that have Commercial Crew Integrated Capability (CCiCap) awards from NASA, as well as Blue Orion, which is working on an unfunded extension of its earlier Commercial Crew Development 2 (CCDev-2) award. “We have a set of detailed criteria drawn up so we can adequately evaluate what they are doing and they can tell us where adjustments fit in with their system’s overall success,” NASA commercial crew program manager Kathy Lueders said in the statement. “It’s exactly what we had in mind when we kicked off this effort four years ago.”

Perhaps the biggest development was word that Boeing had completed its final two CCiCap milestones, including an integrated critical design review (CDR) of its CST-100 spacecraft, which Boeing heralded with its own release. “The challenge of a CDR is to ensure all the pieces and sub-systems are working together,” John Mulholland, manager of commercial crew efforts at Boeing, said in the release. “Now we look forward to bringing the CST-100 to life.”

The other two CCiCap awardees, Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC) and SpaceX, still have some milestones on their agreements that may not be completed until early next year. SNC recently completed a review of its Dream Chaser engineering test article with NASA officials in advance of its second free flight, planned for later this year. SpaceX, meanwhile, is working through some reviews before it performs two abort tests of its Dragon V2 spacecraft. Earlier this month, SpaceX’s Garrett Reisman said those tests, one from ground level and the other in flight on a Falcon 9, are planned for November and January, respectively.

All three companies, meanwhile, are anxiously awaiting when NASA will award CCtCap contracts. Thursday’s NASA release offered no new guidance: “In August or September, NASA plans to award one or more contracts that will provide the agency with commercial services to transport astronauts to and from the International Space Station by the end of 2017.”

IMO, final result: Boeing is a standout first, SNC is second & SpaceX misses out.

Reasons;

It’s a slam dunk for Boeing. They are a known quantity with a known track record, their technological approach is tried & true and they are used to doing business the Government & NASA way plus they know how to look after the right people etc. They are that confident of being awarded the (main) contract, they have implied that if they are not successful, then they will “take their bat & ball and go home” i.e. as far as Boeing is concerned there is no business case to build CST-100 if no public funds are involved. Not that they necessarily would not proceed, but it permits the more experienced to say to the less experienced, “hey, we (meaning you) shouldn’t upset the “Big B””.

Congress wanted one provider, NASA wanted two, a main provider with a backup. NASA got its way because it really didn’t tread on any toes, it allowed NASA to have its little “victory”, doubly rewards Boeing (by having SNC as runner-up) and has the added advantage of providing a backup to CST-100 plus NASA has their Apollo style capsule and their “mini-me” shuttle.

For not placing SpaceX, Elon Musk is going to build Dragon regardless. He needs a delivery system to the Martian surface and Dragon’s it. It will take a brave person within NASA to select SpaceX, with their bold and innovative approach, which, if pulled off, will dramatically reduce overall costs. I just don’t see conservative old NASA having the “cahoonas” to go with SpaceX.

P.S. In my opinion, the real reason why SpaceX has put its hat in the Commercial Crew ring, even though it knows it doesn’t stand (much of) a chance, is to add pressure to the US Government to award it more of the DOD business being handed to ULA. This suits SpaceX better, Commercial Crew contract(s) come with all sorts of conditions & requirements which really doesn’t/won’t suit SpaceX’s way of doing business (which is just get on with it, do it fast, well & cost effectively). SpaceX not being awarded any Commercial Crew contract(s) is really a blessing in disguise.

Whether or not a company will continue vehicle development if not awarded a CCtCap contract is not part of the Source Selection Criteria for the solicitation. If NASA used that in their assessment, it would open them up to a protest from the losing bidder(s). I hope the agency is more responsible than Mr. Scutts.

Completely agree Mr. Scutts! SpaceX does not have a chance to fly humans into space! They care way to much about the $$ in their pockets to truly comprehend the demands of human spaceflight. Although we all hated the red-tape of working directly under a government contract, SpaceX cannot seem to understand that it is an absolute necessity when sending humans on million ton rockets into SPACE!! It has and is moving operations outside of Florida to Texas, which in my opinion is a huge negative!! There is a reason why one should not shoot rockets across the skies of our country… IF/WHEN something happens (which it did for them the other day), now you have massive amounts of debris falling into our backyards, on our roads and homes. Although I feel Boeing should be funneling some of their own money into the project, they have experience with human spaceflight and they also send millions of people throughout our world everyday. You cannot beat that kind of experience. It is my opinion that Boeing will be awarded the main contract and I have a sneaking suspicion that Sierra Nevada may end up with a small piece of the pie too. And you are right, Elon Musk is an arrogant businessman, he will build his vehicle without a NASA contract… seems like he would prefer it that way.

As SpaceX is closest of all CCDev competitors to doing so, this is obvious wishful thinking.

They care way to much about the $$ in their pockets to truly comprehend the demands of human spaceflight.

Need I point out – one more weary time – that it is your beloved Boeing that is threatening to shoot its own dog if further government funds are not forthcoming?

Although we all hated the red-tape of working directly under a government contract, SpaceX cannot seem to understand that it is an absolute necessity when sending humans on million ton rockets into SPACE!!

We, huh. And what’s with this “million ton” stuff? Are you actually old enough to have worked on the original Orion project or just someone who is units-of-measure-challenged?

It has and is moving operations outside of Florida to Texas, which in my opinion is a huge negative!!

SpaceX is moving nothing to Texas. It’s building a new launch facility in Texas. New! The factory is staying in Hawthorne and the existing launch facilities at Vandenberg and Canaveral will remain in use, shortly to be joined by the refitted LC-39A next door to Canaveral at KSC. Don’t believe everything you read on the Internet.

There is a reason why one should not shoot rockets across the skies of our country… IF/WHEN something happens (which it did for them the other day), now you have massive amounts of debris falling into our backyards, on our roads and homes.

Apparently you are cartographically challenged in addition to your difficulties with units of measure. SpaceX’s new launch site is in Brownsville, down on the very southern tip of Texas near Mexico on the Gulf. Look it up. SpaceX will be launching over water from there just like they do in Florida and California. No hot, flaming shrapnel falling down on Grandma’s retirement condo I’m afraid.

Although I feel Boeing should be funneling some of their own money into the project, they have experience with human spaceflight and they also send millions of people throughout our world everyday. You cannot beat that kind of experience.

Boeing didn’t actually do much of that; companies Boeing bought out over the past 30 years did. The people from those companies who did those things are now mostly working elsewhere, retired or dead. The Boeing of today has less relevant experience than SpaceX does.

The value of Boeing’s alleged “institutional memory” can best be gauged by considering the hash its current management made of the 787 project. Boeing had developed a lot of large airplanes before, but choose to ignore most of its management history in going with an all-outsourcing model for 787. They got snake-bit big time. The people at Boeing today are just as much Johnny-Come-Latelies to human spaceflight as SpaceX is. The main difference is SpaceX is smart and not overconfident based on its reputation. Boeing is the opposite.

It is my opinion that Boeing will be awarded the main contract and I have a sneaking suspicion that Sierra Nevada may end up with a small piece of the pie too.

It is my opinion that Boeing is undeserving of further government support for their paper, plastic and plywood spaceship. I don’t entirely rule out the possibility of their remaining in the CCDev competition. But, if so, it will be for entirely political, and not engineering, reasons.

SpaceX and SNC should split the award more or less evenly. Boeing should be piped down the road.

Elon Musk is an arrogant businessman, he will build his vehicle without a NASA contract

>i>Quel horreur! Building something without a government contract!

Elon Musk is a confident, careful businessman. He will build Dragon V2 with or without a NASA contract, because there’s a market for it.

As the result you expect would be in reverse order of readiness to actually transport crew to orbit, it would also be an indication that politics has indeed trumped all else at NASA. I would not see that as a good thing.

As for Boeing’s expressed attitude, it is curious they allege to see no commercial market for crew transport. They have been partnered with Bigelow Aerospace for a number of years to support exactly that. If Boeing is serious in its recent pronouncements – and sending out 60-day layoff notices to the entire CST-100 team certainly suggests they are – then they’ve apparently been stringing Bob Bigelow along this entire time.

Elon Musk hardly shares this opinion. Dragon V2 will likely see the vast majority of its business coming from Bigelow LEO stations starting in 2017. SpaceX’s participation in CCDev is hardly some ploy they are prepared to trade away in return for a shot at ULA’s EELV business. SpaceX is well along the path to getting that shot anyway.

No doubt Bob Bigelow teamed with Boeing in the first place for reasons such as you offer – known quantity, “old reliable,” in with all the right people, etc. Given Boeing’s leisurely attitude toward CST-100’s limited progress as a physical – as opposed to a paperwork – object, and the Russian-controlled future of Boeing’s chosen launch vehicle, the Atlas V, perhaps Mr. Bigelow’s recent efforts and announcements represent a de facto end to his Boeing ties.

Dick Eagleson “No doubt Bob Bigelow teamed with Boeing in the first place for reasons such as you offer – known quantity, “old reliable,” in with all the right people, etc.” When Bigelow teamed with Boeing, nobody expected SpaceX to succeed. Bigelow is getting a cold shoulder towards Boeing. However, Bigelow is trying to honor it’s contract with Boeing. Boeing’s puppet launch provider ULA needs to lower their launch costs for commercial & NASA missions. Perhaps the changeover of CEO’s is the start of this. Boeing said that they needed to build a cheap spacecraft(CST-100). Now they need a cheap launch vehicle. Also, if Boeing started mass producing a Delta IV variant that uses two RS-25E main engines, as a replacement for the Atlas V in manned/commercial launches, then they can be competitive with SpaceX. They may need to produce an initial 50, to bring the price down.

You’re quite right about Bigelow and Boeing. When they tied up, SpaceX was a lot less impressive than it is now. Bob B. talked to Elon mostly because SpaceX had at least gotten stuff into orbit and was working on a launcher in the size class he needed. Second source options weren’t exactly thick on the ground at that time.

Disagree about the path to a competitive Boeing booster though. Being already more expensive than even the problematical Atlas V, the Delta IV seems an unpromising basis for a SpaceX-competitive offering.

Also, the RS-25E doesn’t yet exist and, so far as I know, isn’t even being worked on seriously. Which is too bad as you are correct that a pair of notional RS-25E’s would give the existing Delta IV Medium a modest boost in thrust. If the RS-25E was also used for something besides the SLS core stage it, too, would at least marginally improve the godawful economics of that particular beast.

Adding a second RS-68 would double thrust and at least use an engine Boeing knows it can actually buy. But the Delta IV has lower structural margins than the Atlas V or Falcon 9. They fall below what NASA is willing to accept in a vehicle intended to boost people as well as cargo.

Bigelow is likely to be the dominant buyer of crew transport services as soon as 2018. I doubt a rocket less robust and more expensive than its competitors would be salable to his prospective clients, especially if NASA also gave it a thumbs-down.

Doubling Delta IV’s thrust, or even boosting it a bit with twin RS-25E’s, would reduce Delta IV’s structural margins still further absent a tip-to-toe beefing up. Doing this, on top of a re-engining project, would add still more development expenses that would have to be recovered in prices charged.

And then there is the whole reusability issue which no prospective SpaceX competitor can escape addressing in some way.

Boeing/ULA may still have what it takes to compete with SpaceX, but they would be far better off starting with a clean sheet of paper than with trying to fiddle the sow’s ear Delta IV design into a Falcon 9-beating silk purse.

Robert Bigelow stated many times he wanted at least two domestic providers for crew rotations.

Bigelow represents peanuts to the Boeing balance sheets, it would be business as usual for them to show they will cut ties with Bigelow and close their shop if they do not get their way and get a commercial crew award. They have had monopoly interests in various enterprises dealing with the Federal Government for decades and if they could pull off a monopoly crew funding award they would certainly press for that advantage.

I believe Boeing is more interested, long term, to just sell reusable capsules and the purchasers arranges a launch provider for the “common carrier” capsule. They could sell them just like they sell airplanes.

That’d be nice, Vlad. I’d like to see the space side of Being do something at least a little bit commercial. But I doubt it’s an option. They’ve made their opinion of actual commercial space pretty well-known – they don’t believe in it.

I think Boeing is the modern Curtis-Wright, a major player that shriveled and died after failing to make a key transition. In C-W’s case it was from piston power to jets. In Boeing’s case it’s from old-school pork-space to actual commercial space.