UK Ministers resign, confidence vote likely for Theresa May

Missy has summarised developments (overnight NZ time) in the UK political split over Brexit plans, with a number of Cabinet Ministers resigning (7 so far), and a confidence vote in Theresa May likely.

(Thanks for this Missy).

Her ‘deal’ has been compared to Chamberlain returning from Munich.

A quick review of this morning’s happenings (rather than re-posting everything I posted this morning).

Five Members of the cabinet have resigned, they are:

Shailesh Vara – Junior Minister for Northern Ireland. He claims that the deal leaves Britain in a half way house.

Dominic Raab – Secretary of State for Exiting the EU. He said the indefinite backstop threatens to break up the Union.

Esther McVey – Secretary of State for Work & Pensions. She said the deal does not honour the result of the referendum.

Suella Braverman – Junior Minister for the Department for Exiting the EU. She warned that the concessions do not respect the will of the people.

Anne-Marie Trevelyan – Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Education Secretary. She said the deal is unacceptable to Brexit Voters.

Ranil Jayawardena – Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Ministry of Justice. He said the deal does not deliver a fair Brexit.

Rehman Chishti, the PM’s trade envoy to Pakistan and Vice chairman of the Conservative Party for communities has resigned, saying that the deal is contrary to their Manifesto commitment.

May gave a statement in Parliament after which she received no support. During the questions after Jacob Rees-Mogg asked May why he shouldn’t put in a letter to the 1922 Committee Chariman. This is quite a big thing, whatever you think of him JRM has always supported the PM, he hasn’t supported the deal, but he has always said he supports the PM of the day, and that he has indicated in Parliament that he is thinking of putting in a letter of no confidence is quite a big deal, and he has influence among other Brexiters.

When he spoke in Parliament JRM obviously already had his letter written, he has just submitted it to the 1922 Committee. The key part is this: ‘It is of considerable importance that politicians stick to their commitments or do not make such commitments in the first place. Regrettably, this is not the situation, therefore, in accordance with the relevant rules and procedures of the Conservative Party and the 1922 Committee this is a formal letter of No Confidence in the Leader of the Party, the Rt. Hon. Theresa May.’

JRM has said that the Brexit deal has turned out to be worse than anticipated and fails to meet the promises given to the nation by the PM.

It is expected that the required number of letters will be received by the Chair of the 1922 Committee by tomorrow, and if so then a vote of confidence in Theresa May as leader on Tuesday is expected.

There has been some speculation on who may run for leader, though I think we may get a better idea when the Chair of the 1922 Committee are closer to receiving the 48 letters needed and we see which Cabinet members resign then.

Leading contenders at the moment are:

Dominic Raab (odds about 11-2)

Boris Johnson (odds about 5-1)

Sajid Javid (odds about 5-1) he is the most credible leading contender, despite having voted remain he is against a soft Brexit and for delivering Brexit. He has gone against Theresa May on several occasions, and he was reportedly behind a tougher stance on EU Migrants post Brexit than was originally positioned by TM. Has the advantage of being an ethnic minority (Pakistani parents) and a (non practicing) Muslim, despite having been brought up in a Muslim household he doesn’t practice now, and has stated on a number of occasions the only religion in his house is Christianity (his wife is apparently a practicing Christian). So looks good for the moderate Muslim vote, but isn’t a problem for the extreme anti-Muslim vote.

Jeremy Hunt (odds about 8-1) he won’t be a popular choice, he is universally disliked by the public.

David Davis (odds about 11-1) he is a popular choice among many party members to bring in as an interim PM until Brexit is done.

Amber Rudd (odds about 50-1)

Sources are reporting that Michael Gove was offered the Brexit Secretary job, but he has turned it down unless he can go back to Brussels and renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.

Gezza

Yes, I’ve been watching bits of it while doing my morning chore: Alajzeera tv is showing it live @ the moment.

She doesn’t sound convincing when she says she will still be leading the Conservatives if there’s a confidence vote, but when, but she has relaxed now and even cracked a joke or two with reporters. As far she’s concerned there will be no 2nd referendum.

Missy

Just seen this from Rehman Chishti. His resignation is a double whammy, not only can he not support the EU withdrawal agreement, he is also calling the Government out on their lack of moral leadership over the Asia Bibi case in not offering her asylum for fear of violence from some communities.

Trevors_Elbow

The EU leadership and its bureaucracy need to make an example of the UK to maintain control over their vassal states inside the Union. The UK Brexit vote is a huge challenge to their project of subjugation of the disparate European peoples – and they will do and say anything to try and hold the UK to a horrible deal which doesn’t reflect the will of the British people as stated by the referendum on Brexit.

But like a lot of supposed hard, tough exteriors the EU is very brittle – the UK should do as English archers of old did and show the EU the classic two finger salute and go hard Brexit. They need to show courage and stay the course in historical British style… and pretty soon after the EU will be faced by further break aways from political union…

RoI and NI border is an issue? – tough put up customs posts. Two separate countries – and yes I know the possible opportunities that opens to militant republicans both sides of the borders, but sometimes claiming sovereignty has to be paid in blood.

I hope the Brits push through and leave the EU. The common market and standardisation of trade rules was a good idea, political and monetary union has been dreadful and benefited only the German economy and subsides farmers across the union, particularly the French.. it has caused huge problems in Southern Europe glossed over by wealth transfers from German and the UK via EU infrastructure schemes and farming subsidies…

Missy

The problem with customs posts on the Irish border is it is expressly in violation of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK want a technological solution, the EU don’t. It is seen as many as Ireland using it as a way to move towards reunification of Ireland.

Trevors_Elbow

Appreciate that Missy, but ultimate the UK includes NI and having a soft border is a huge problem from an illegal migrant point of view. Reunification of Ireland is not going to happen while the Unionists have support in the north..

Missy

Agree on the soft border issue re: illegal immigration, however, it isn’t as much of an issue from ROI as it is in Mainland Europe.

I agree on reunification not happening, but I don’t think that stops Varadkar trying for it by using the EU for his own ends, and it doesn’t stop the EU using Varadkar and his wish for a united Ireland for their own ends.

I did see something this morning (which I am trying to find again) which a journalist claimed that some in Brussels are starting to get worried that Ireland may have over egged it now and that they all lose with the UK ending up with no deal.

I think the EU, and the Irish Government and the British Government are all using this for their own ends, and not one of them has the slightest interest in respecting the democratically expressed wish of the British People to leave the EU.

Unless May gets booted out and replaced with a leader of honour who will respect that wish, I fear they will all end up with a lot more than they bargained for. “Beware the fury of a patient man,” said the English poet.

I don’t think the ordinary Brits will take kindly to the realisation that they have been deliberately deceived by their own elected servants in obedience to orders from unelected EU bosses to keep the peasants in Euro-subjugation for the rest of their days.

Missy

Missy

If true this will be the test for May to see if she will do what is best for the country or what is for her own survival.

Tonight, senior sources in DUP have told me that the confidence and supply agreement is over – unless Theresa May goes. They say the future of the agreement “depends on who the leader of the Conservative Party is”.

Missy

Unconfirmed and from a single (always previously reliable) source – but hearing that the 48 letters are in and Downing Street are preparing for a no confidence motion in Theresa May as Conservative leader…

Missy

It doesn’t look like there will be any more cabinet resignations if this is correct. These are the members that were considered most likely to resign.

BREAKING: Gove, Fox, Grayling, Mordaunt and Leadsom have agreed collectively to stay and will work together “to get this in a better place” says a vg source. “Resigning and joining a rebellion is not going to help anything”.