Out-of-state groups to pour millions into U.S. Senate, congressional races

Groups are buying attack ads to turn voters against candidates they oppose

September 2, 2010|By Mark K. Matthews, Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON -- For those few Florida voters unfamiliar with attacks ads, the latest TV spot by the conservative Americans for Prosperity offers a classic take on the genre.

It features ominous music, testimony from everyday people and unflattering pictures of its targets: Democratic U.S. Reps. Alan Grayson of Orlando and Suzanne Kosmas of New Smyrna Beach.

"Both supported Nancy Pelosi's liberal agenda," one grandmotherly woman tells the camera, moments before the ad condemns their support of the $787-billion stimulus bill.

Americans for Prosperity paid about $420,000 to run the 30-second commercial for two weeks on Central Florida over-the-air and cable stations. The ad is part of a nationwide campaign by the Republican-Libertarian group – underwritten in part by New York billionaire David Koch -- and marks the opening salvo in what's expected to be a barrage of spending by outside organizations in Florida before the Nov. 2 general election.

"Florida is key because it is a pace setter, a tone setter," said Apryl Marie Fogel, state director for Americans for Prosperity.

Driving the ad invasion are several close congressional races, like those facing Kosmas and Grayson, that could help determine which party controls the U.S. House next year. But the big money will be spent on the three-way race for U.S. Senate, which already has attracted unions, business organizations and ideological groups.

These outsiders – ranging from a Karl Rove affiliate and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on the right to the Service Employees International Union and Barack Obama's Organizing for America on the left – will spend millions of dollars trying to influence Florida voters, aided by the recent Supreme Court decision on the Citizens United case that lifts restrictions on corporate spending.

And that doesn't even include the two major political parties, which plan to spend millions more.

"There is a lot of money flowing into Florida [and] I would expect record amounts of money being spent," said Craig Holman, a campaign finance expert with the consumer advocate group Public Citizen. "That ought to be very disturbing to people in Florida because, for the most part, they won't know where the money is coming from," including the identities of the corporate or ideological donors behind independent groups.

American Crossroads, a new group formed with the backing of former Bush strategist Karl Rove, pledged to spend $10 million in eight states, including Florida, for GOP get-out-the-vote efforts. The U.S. Chamber, which backs Republican Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate race, plans to start running TV ads after Labor Day, although the group would not disclose further details.

The SEIU helped propel U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami to victory in the Democratic Senate primary by sending out 200,000 mailers, making more than 400,000 phone calls and knocking on 3,700 doors, according to the group.

The union, which boasts 45,000 members in Florida and 2.2 million in North America, aims to top that effort in Meek's general election run against Rubio and Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running as an independent.

Meek also can expect help from Organizing for America, a spin-off from the campaign group that helped get President Barack Obama elected.

Still, figuring out how to help in a three-way race can be a dicey proposition for outside groups. While state law allows groups to coordinate their ads directly with the candidates they support, federal law does not. Nor does it permit ads that say "vote for" a candidate by name. As a result, most third-party ads tend to attack the opponent of the candidate the group is supporting.

But that creates the possibility that an attack ad launched by a Rubio ally against Crist ultimately could drive voters to Meek.

"You are going to have changing combinations of two-on-one," said Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida. "It makes the calculus [of ads] by independent groups very difficult and tricky. The timing of these things can really alter the outcome."

"Outside help is great when it's done competently and correctly. But outside help isn't always done competently and correctly," acknowledged state Democratic spokesman Eric Jotkoff.

Added Rubio spokesman Alex Burgos: "The things that we can control are communicating Marco's message. You can't spend too much time worrying about things you can't control," he said.

The Rubio camp can also rely on the Republican establishment. The National Republican Senatorial Committee recently pledged to spend $2.5 million on advertising in the race.

Its Democratic counterpart was less forthcoming, but officials with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said Meek would be supported.