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COMMODITIES FROM BASIC metals to agricultural products look a lot like stocks these days, losing half of their value over the course of several months last year. And now, despite the strength in gold and other precious metals, they are still floundering.

For investors looking for alternatives to save their decimated equities portfolios, this is not the place. Despite relatively low prices, there is no rush to snap up cotton, corn and coffee right now.

On the charts, stocks and commodities look remarkably similar. The former benchmark CRB index, now called the Continuous Commodity index, lost nearly half its value from July to December 2008 before bouncing (see Chart 1).

Chart 1

The newer version of the index, called the Reuter-Jefferies CRB index, has a higher weighting of energy than the more agriculturally-based original. However, given the energy bubble last year and its subsequent deflation, it would seem that a better rounded commodities index would be more representative of the entire group.

Traditional chart reading does give us any important support levels to watch. In other words, we cannot say that the price of the CRB index was considered cheap enough over the past decade to bring out buyers.

But analysts looking at the relationships between bull and bear cycles might be encouraged now because the index has fallen by 62%.

It is a strange number to care about but it is derived from the Fibonacci sequence of numbers that seems to turn up in many places both inside and outside of the markets. For example, astronomers will find that this percentage defines how the spiral arms of galaxies develop.

Many traders and analysts consider a 62% drop to be a good place to find buyers. I'll leave it to others to prove whether it is more than just market fantasy but it certainly does garner its share of market chatter.

But unlike stocks, the commodities index has been able to reclaim its key 50-day moving average. That suggests a good deal of healing has already taken place to set the stage for recovery. Just keep in mind that chart watchers demand actual buying pressures to build before they declare -- unfortunately in hindsight -- that the bear market is over. Until something gets the bulls to commit their cash, all we have is an open-ended trading range.

There is an interesting development now happening in the energy markets. As mentioned, an energy bubble did burst last year and crude oil fell from 147 to 33 in six month's time. While many, including yours truly, were guilty of underestimating the extent of the decline as it was happening, it does seem now that crude oil is no longer on the forefront of investor minds.

And while few pay attention as stocks plummet, crude seems to have stabilized to form a recognizable trading range between $33 and $49 a barrel. It is also the first time since oil's peak in July 2008 that it is outperforming stocks, even if by a small amount (see Chart 2).

Chart 2

Confirming what many have noticed lately, that prices at the pump have crept up a bit, RBOB gasoline futures have been in a shallow but noticeable rising trend since December (see Chart 3). Could it be that energy markets are making some bullish noise? It does appear that way for the petroleum group. Unfortunately, the related natural-gas market has not been able to get out of its own way as it continues to set lower lows.

Chart 3

But unlike stocks, where traditional technical analysis has fallen flat during these unusual times, commodities still follow traditional charting rules well. That would leave profit starved investors something to consider.

Getting Technical Mailbag:Send your questions on technical analysis to us atonline.editors@barrons.com. We'll cover as many as we can, but please remember that we cannot give investment advice.

Michael Kahn, author of three books on technical analysis, former Chief Technical Analyst for BridgeNews and former director for the Market Technicians Association, also blogs at www.quicktakespro.com/blog.