Drop rate is a real pain, I have the firey warhorse after farming it casually over a few weeks. I have the death chargers reins farming it to waste time before a reset on my rogue. I just snagged riens of the drake of the south winds (TO4W). Addtionally back before mounts were account wide i also managed to farm up five seperate white hawkstriders. my rogue was by far the luckiest having had 4 at once, (one learned, one in bags, one in the bank and one in a loot window). I managed to snag the raven lord after a week of farming everyday on one toon. I rolled a 96 a few months ago to win Spawn of Horridon, I snagged the blue protodrake in my first ever utgarde pinnacle heroic run (actual first herioc dungeon at 80 that I did on my first toon ever). I farmed ashes doing 4 runs a week for maybe two months straight. I've also farmed firelands maybe a grand total of a month's worth of attempts and actually saw the rag mount drop (it was ninja'd though). I could go on for another paragraph explaining my mount luck but alas that is not the point of this post. .

I've been rolling on SHA every week for at least 2 months across multiple toons (varying from 2 toons, to five last week) with absolutely no luck. By no luck, i mean that only one person on my home server (stormreaver) has the mount (that i've seen riding it anyway). That means that in the past 2 months if i was averaging 3 kills per week and seeing at least 120 people a week roll on it twice (I assume they are bonus rolling) thats 240 unique attempts that i've witnessed per week and not a damned person i've come across has had it drop for them (don't tell me that they wouldn't link the soulbound riens in chat or at least the spell). However i'm gonna keep trying every week.

I almost feel like the sha mount is still bugged in some way, (it was bugged earlier in the expac to actually never drop, for anyone that didn't know). Unless the drop rate is just this low. Maybe like everyone else i just have terrible luck with certain mounts but not others. Still i wanted to at least see proof that this sha touched cloud serpent actually exists as soul bound riens, lol.

TLDR: everyone has terrible luck with one mount or another, stick with it though! you never know!

Drop rate is a real pain, I have the firey warhorse after farming it casually over a few weeks. I have the death chargers reins farming it to waste time before a reset on my rogue. I just snagged riens of the drake of the south winds (TO4W). Back before mounts were account wide i also managed to farm up five seperate white hawkstriders my rogue being the luckiest (while farming orb of the sindorei) my rouge actually had 4 at once, (one learned, one in bags, one in the bank and one in a loot window). I managed to snag the raven lord after a week of farming everyday. I could go on for another paragraph explaining my mount luck but alas that is not the point of this post.

I've been rolling on SHA every week for at least 2 months across multiple toons (varying from 2 toons, to five last week) with absolutely no luck. By no luck, i mean that only one person on my home server (stormreaver) has the mount (that i've seen riding it anyway). That means that in the past 2 months if i was averaging 3 kills per week and seeing at least 120 people a week roll on it twice (I assume they are bonus rolling) thats 240 unique attempts that i've witnessed per week and not a damned person i've come across has had it drop for them (don't tell me that they wouldn't link the soulbound riens in chat or at least the spell). However i'm gonna keep trying every week.

I almost feel like the sha mount is still bugged in some way, (it was bugged earlier in the expac to actually never drop, for anyone that didn't know). Unless the drop rate is just this low.

TLDR: everyone has terrible luck with one mount or another, stick with it though! you never know!

I actually just got the sha mount last week on a bonus coin roll. I was just looking for something to disenchant, but I'm happy with that too! I used to play on Stormreaver, and I still have 4 alts there. I can be number 2!

And I saw, and behold, a pale horse: and he that sat upon him, his name was Death; and Hades followed with him. And there was given unto them authority over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with famine, and with death, and by the wild beasts of the earth.

Yeah I know what you mean, I also looked for comfort in numbers many times.
I thought Blizzard normalized mount drops to be all at 1% (except personal loot mounts)? So cheer up.

So just a few numbers based on 1% dropchance:
If you get your mount before attempt 69 you belong the the lucky people, because until attempt 69 the chance of not getting the mount is higher than getting it.
Starting with attempt 69 the tide changes though, which means the chance of getting the mount at least once in 69+ attempts is higher than not getting it.

An interesting number is attempt 100. Many people assume that with 1% dropchance you should get one mount in 100 attempts, but this is just the normal distribution, and not the probability. In fact the chance of not getting the mount in 100 attempts is 36.6%.

Another noticable mark is attempt 458. The chance of not getting the mount in 458 attempts is 1%, exactly the same as getting the mount on the first. So if you pass this mark, you really can call yourself unlucky.

And the final statistically significant mark ("statistically impossible" = starting probability squared) hits at attempt 917, when the chance of not getting the mount reaches 0.01%. If you should pass this mark, the probability that someone at Blizzard is watching you and prevents the mount from dropping for you is higher than not

This is me. I'm at easily over a thousand attempts for Midnight. Hell, I've done 175 kills in the last 3 month alone, never seen the bloody thing.

The RNG gods have been kind to me on other mounts though I guess. Though I say that, it's more a case of a war of attrition, 3000+ Baron kills (then i get it in CTA bag >.>), ran blue proto drake 5 times a day for a few month, stonecore sometimes upwards of 20 times a day (cursed 5 instances per hour) etc etc.

You said 'solo' in both quotes. In the first quote you said you were up to 7 characters. In the second quote, you said you were at 10-12 characters more than 5 months before the first quote. That's a pretty huge gaffe.

You only have 46 kills on your main. See for yourself: Achievements > Statistics > Dungeons & Raids > Classic.

And Bloodbuns has 7 Onyxia kills. Still 734 short.

I'm not finicky enough to have typed ' 7 solo and 3-5 duo runs with various people'. Killed the boss, whether solo or grouped the mount never dropped. Hmm, I was looking in WOTLK not Classic, I've still killed it more than that on Katz, Bloodbuns that sounds about right, was my bank alt and I only just bothered gearing her a month or 2 ago. I'd assume something reset the kills on Katz.

It it helps by any means, mounts is the only thing I am lucky with :P I never get gear or anything in raids :P

Haha, it's not that bad I guess. I get some greens and netherweave to make 18 slotters. They sell pretty well and all. Plus it gives me something to do, you know?

And I saw, and behold, a pale horse: and he that sat upon him, his name was Death; and Hades followed with him. And there was given unto them authority over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with famine, and with death, and by the wild beasts of the earth.

Oh, I know. I was just saying that all my failed kara mount runs aren't for naught. My friends like to say I live the Loot Life though. I didn't choose it, but my god I get an absurd amount of epics from LFR/World Bosses and bonus rolls.

And I saw, and behold, a pale horse: and he that sat upon him, his name was Death; and Hades followed with him. And there was given unto them authority over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with famine, and with death, and by the wild beasts of the earth.

Rare mount's are indeed annoying when you don't get them but when you do it feels amazing.

When i stopped at my school i was kinda sad cause i would not see my friends as often as i used to (we lived at the school)
when i got home i entered TK and got the mount, I think it was my fifth try and i was extremmly exited because i knew how rare it was and i've always wanted it.
Two days later i got the mount from Sha of anger and i could not remove the huge grin from my face.

I must say though i don't think i know how bad you feel since i have gotten most of my rare mounts pretty fast Death charger on first try, white polar bear on three people before mount sharing, raven lord in 20 tries and the green proto-drake in about 7 or 8 eggs.

Drop rate is a real pain, I have the firey warhorse after farming it casually over a few weeks. I have the death chargers reins farming it to waste time before a reset on my rogue. I just snagged riens of the drake of the south winds (TO4W). Addtionally back before mounts were account wide i also managed to farm up five seperate white hawkstriders. my rogue was by far the luckiest having had 4 at once, (one learned, one in bags, one in the bank and one in a loot window). I managed to snag the raven lord after a week of farming everyday on one toon. I rolled a 96 a few months ago to win Spawn of Horridon, I snagged the blue protodrake in my first ever utgarde pinnacle heroic run (actual first herioc dungeon at 80 that I did on my first toon ever). I farmed ashes doing 4 runs a week for maybe two months straight. I've also farmed firelands maybe a grand total of a month's worth of attempts and actually saw the rag mount drop (it was ninja'd though). I could go on for another paragraph explaining my mount luck but alas that is not the point of this post. .

I've been rolling on SHA every week for at least 2 months across multiple toons (varying from 2 toons, to five last week) with absolutely no luck. By no luck, i mean that only one person on my home server (stormreaver) has the mount (that i've seen riding it anyway). That means that in the past 2 months if i was averaging 3 kills per week and seeing at least 120 people a week roll on it twice (I assume they are bonus rolling) thats 240 unique attempts that i've witnessed per week and not a damned person i've come across has had it drop for them (don't tell me that they wouldn't link the soulbound riens in chat or at least the spell). However i'm gonna keep trying every week.

I almost feel like the sha mount is still bugged in some way, (it was bugged earlier in the expac to actually never drop, for anyone that didn't know). Unless the drop rate is just this low. Maybe like everyone else i just have terrible luck with certain mounts but not others. Still i wanted to at least see proof that this sha touched cloud serpent actually exists as soul bound riens, lol.

TLDR: everyone has terrible luck with one mount or another, stick with it though! you never know!

doing sha (and other world bosses) on 6 chars since mop release(respectively when other bosses came out), no dice.

Its just luck, in WotLK my second attempt in ZG I got the Raptor mount and in Cata the remade ZG I got the raptor mount first try!
In DS normal alt run, I got experiment B-12 and DW normal mount in the same run!
And In the same week I saw Horridon mount(I won it) and ji-kun mount drop (our mage who quit weeks later got it...)

Yeah I know what you mean, I also looked for comfort in numbers many times.
I thought Blizzard normalized mount drops to be all at 1% (except personal loot mounts)? So cheer up.

So just a few numbers based on 1% dropchance:
If you get your mount before attempt 69 you belong the the lucky people, because until attempt 69 the chance of not getting the mount is higher than getting it.
Starting with attempt 69 the tide changes though, which means the chance of getting the mount at least once in 69+ attempts is higher than not getting it.

An interesting number is attempt 100. Many people assume that with 1% dropchance you should get one mount in 100 attempts, but this is just the normal distribution, and not the probability. In fact the chance of not getting the mount in 100 attempts is 36.6%.

Another noticable mark is attempt 458. The chance of not getting the mount in 458 attempts is 1%, exactly the same as getting the mount on the first. So if you pass this mark, you really can call yourself unlucky.

And the final statistically significant mark ("statistically impossible" = starting probability squared) hits at attempt 917, when the chance of not getting the mount reaches 0.01%. If you should pass this mark, the probability that someone at Blizzard is watching you and prevents the mount from dropping for you is higher than not

Except that you calculations is worth nothing.

Every single time you enter the raid/dungeon you have 1% chance of it dropping. It does not get higher or lower. Be it the 1000th run or the 1 run.

Every single time you enter the raid/dungeon you have 1% chance of it dropping. It does not get higher or lower. Be it the 1000th run or the 1 run.

Nobody claimed that. Of course the chance is 1% on your 1000th run. But what the numbers can tell you is the chance of getting the mount at least once in 1000 attempts, which of course is significantly higher than 1%.

Originally Posted by Kerdoz

Except that you calculations is worth nothing.

Well the question is how do you define "worth". Statistical analyses never have a direct influence on the event, so you can call them worthless. Yet they have influence on you, starting with the obvious casino visit where they directly influence your chance on increasing your gain (not necessarily winning), over to banking interest depending on your rating, or insurance rates.
These numbers can tell you where to find yourself. When you start farming, expect at least 68 attempts. Don't assume you are extremely unlucky when you pass the 100 attempts mark, over a third of people starting to farm with you don't have it yet. And on the other hand, don't try to get the people's compassion when you claim you have a thousand attempts or more without any form of proof, because this is too unlikely to be plausible.

i took me over 3k mobs to get the disgusting oozeling
theres this thing call a normal distribution. on average people will get it between 80 and 120 trys, but there are exeptions, its even possible to kill the boss over a million times and never see the mount drop but that possibilty is so small it would probably not happen for the duration of WoW.

When I played RaF with my GF she got it like 5 mins being in silithus, i was like NOOO DONT EQUIP IT, ITS WORTH LIKE 10K

But it is just bad luck, it's a 1% chance you'll get it every run, since every run is individual and rolls your loot separate from the last run the chance of it dropping will always be 1% so you could potentially be really unlucky and never get it, but the chance remains.

“4chan once took on the FBI and won,” a Brony told the New York Observer, “so you might say that My Little Pony is more powerful than the FBI.” Sethisto

I know this is a bit off topic so forgive me... But I was reading this thread and it made me want to go and do stonecore for a chance at the drake since I hadn't done that in awhile, as I'm flying out of the deepholm portal my npc scan goes off, and theres Aeonaxx, just sitting there. Talk about random and lucky!