This is a story about how the death of a single political strategist will alter the 1988 Presidential election and beyond. The cast of characters will be familiar, but they will have different roles. Several of the politicians of today are in power simply because they got lucky, and will not have such luck in this timeline. Others, who in real life were unlucky, will find themselves as Presidents, Vice-Presidents, and leaders in Congress. Although some may find this timeline ridiculous, we must remember that real life politics is often just as or even more ridiculous.

March 28, 1988: Lee Atwater Dies after a Short Battle with Cancer.On March 28, 1988, the political strategist Lee Atwater died after a short battle with a rare and aggressive form of brain cancer. It was only a year earlier that Atwater collapsed at a public library and was first diagnosed. Although he took the diagnosis bravely, he was publicly disappointed that he was not able to participate in the 1988 Presidential election. Friends remember him as a devoted political consultant as well as a talented musician. Others were critical of his extremely negative form of campaigning and were suspicious or even disgusted by it. It is unknown whether his strategies would help current Vice President George H.W. Bush in his campaigning for the Presidency. It is only March, and the Vice President already trails presumptive nominee Governor Michael Dukakis by 10 points in the latest national poll….

March 28, 1988. Representative Gephardt and Senator Dole quit race.Despite each winning the Iowa caucuses, both Representative Gephardt and Senator Dole have ended their campaigns for the White House. Senator Dole, although supportive of Reagan, has private doubts that Vice President Bush can win the election in November.

April 24, 1988: Gore quits race.Senator Al Gore has quit his campaign for the White House, bowing to reality that Governor Dukakis will likely be the nominee of the Democratic Party. Says Gore: "There will be other days for me and for the causes that matter to us."

May 3, 1988: White House Acknowledges that First Lady Nancy Reagan Relied on Astrologers.For the first time, the White House has acknowledged that the First Lady, Nancy Reagan, used the advice of astrologers to help influence her husband's schedule. This is yet another complication in Bush's campaign to focus on Michael Dukakis instead of the negative stories about the Reagan administration. It seems that each time the Bush campaign seeks to raise questions about the capabilities and positions of Governor Dukakis, some distracting event comes from the White House. The Bush campaign finds themselves playing defense more than they would prefer, and the members of the campaign disagree on how best to challenge Dukakis.

June 7, 1988 Dukakis clinches the nomination.Governor Michael Dukakis has officially won the Democratic nomination for President, by defeating the Rev. Jesse Jackson in the New Jersey, California, Montana and New Mexico primaries. Current national polls have Dukakis with a good lead, 52-44. Michael Dukakis privately is considering Dick Gephardt and Senator Gore, along with Senator Lloyd Bentsen, to be his running mate.

June 12, 1988: Bush Campaign at odds over Willie Horton issue.Several members of the campaign are aware of the Willie Horton issue, but others are suspicious of this idea as they believe it relies too much on racial fears. Eventually they dismiss it, as they believe that Dukakis’ positions are liberal enough to use. These discussions, however, is news on its own, and suddenly the name of Willie Horton is introduced to the country. (The Point of Divergence: With no Lee Atwater alive to work on the Bush campaign, there was less negative research, and so the Willie Horton controversy was not introduced by the Bush campaign, but rather by the media. This is significant because since the media is highlighting the matter now, as opposed to the Bush campaign emphasizing it later in the year, Dukakis is worried enough to bring back John Sasso now, when in reality he did not bring him until Labor Day. In real life, the Bush campaign used Willie Horton so much that by Labor Day, Dukakis was behind Bush by double digits. With John Sasso back, the Dukakis campaign is better prepared and with no Lee Atwater, the Bush campaign does not use the negative ads that would air that October.)

June 15, 1988: Dukakis Campaign brings Back John Sasso.After being forced to resign from the Dukakis campaign after revealing that Senator Biden plagiarized a speech, John Sasso has returned to become the Dukakis campaign manager. He replaces Susan Estrich, who although a Harvard Law Professor, has had no previous experience in managing a campaign. Sasso’s return is believed to be the result of the past few days of news of Willie Norton.

June 18, 1988: Dukakis seeks to link Bush to Iran-Contra ScandalAfter days of the furlough controversy in the news, Dukakis decides to confront the matter head-on in an interview. Michael Dukakis: “The furlough program was originally created by my predecessor, Governor Francis Sargent, who happened to be a Republican. Now what happened with Willie Horton was a mistake, no question about it, but the furloughs are 99 percent effective. The Bush campaign is saying that this one mistake is entirely my fault, and I should be blamed for continuing a Republican-created program. Let’s focus on what I as Governor was directly involved with, and what Vice President Bush was directly involved with. The truth is that Vice President Bush was more responsible for Iran-Contra that I was for Willie Horton.”

June 30, 1988: Dukakis and Bush duel over Willie Horton and Iran-ContraThe two presidential campaigns appear to have focused mainly on who was more responsible for each respective controversial issue, the furloughs of Massachusetts or the Iran-Contra scandal. Voters are tired of hearing of both, and wish to focus back on the issues. After a few days of debating, the Bush campaign decides to stop overtly mentioning the Willie Horton controversy. It has prevented Dukakis from gaining support, but it has lowered support of Bush as a result. Polls have Dukakis stable, but Bush has dropped 4 points: 52-40. The new goal of the Bush campaign: Portray Dukakis as a Massachusetts liberal who is too far-left for the country.

July 10, 1988 Gore, Bentsen, Gephardt believed to be on Dukakis’ ListAt Dukakis’ headquarters:Sasso: “We’re down to the last three, Bentsen, Gore, and Gephardt. Bentsen will give you gravitas and help in the South. Gore will help with the south and the youth. Gephardt helps with the youth, the unions and the Midwest.”Dukakis: “Out of those three, Bentsen is most experienced. It’s harder to see the other two matching up.”Sasso: “Yea but the other two are younger and new, that’ll excite more people”Another campaign worker adds in: “But Bentsen helps you look more Presidential.”Sasso: “Wait a minute! Why should Bentsen help him with appearing presidential? He’s supposed to already be presidential! No offense sir, but one of the criticisms we have, is your personality. Governor, we’re winning, we could use more excitement.”Dukakis: “You’re right. I don’t need an old Senator to help me; I can stand on my own. Well, it looks like it’s either Gore or Gephardt.”Sasso: “Well which one?”Dukakis: “I’m not sure, I’ll have to think about it some more”

The others in the room sigh quietly as Dukakis leaves the room. They privately are all annoyed by the way Dukakis tends to overanalyze each question. They don’t have an overall preference between Gore and Gephardt, both of their pros and cons appear to be similar.

July 12, 1988: Dukakis Chooses Dick Gephardt as His Running Mate!Governor Dukakis has selected Representative Dick Gephardt of Missouri to be his running mate. Representative Gephardt is forty-seven years old and has been a member of Congress since 1977. He has had a history of being strongly pro-life, but recently told the National Right to Life Committee; "I now do not support any Constitutional amendment pertaining to the legality of abortion." Although there is some grumbling by pro-choice groups, there simultaneously appears to be more support of Dukakis among pro-life Reagan Democrats. In addition, the Dukakis campaign hopes that Gephardt's presence on the ticket can help swing the Midwest, especially Missouri and Illinois.

July 21, 1988: Dukakis Accepts NominationGovernor Michael Dukakis has accepted the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party.He is introduced by Bill Clinton, who speaks for far too long and is almost booed of the stage. It is the only flaw in the evening. Dukakis speech is uplifting, hopeful, and in a change in tone, dramatic.

An excerpt of his nomination speech:

“Yes, my friends, it's a time for wonderful new beginnings.A little baby.A new Administration.A new era of greatness for America.And when we leave here tonight, we will leave to build that future together!”

After he finishes, he welcomes the cheers, heads backstage and walks to his campaign manager. Dukakis is filled with energy.

Dukakis: “How was it?!”Sasso: “Perfect, Governor, you came out looking clear and strong.”Dukakis: “Ah, I felt it. Probably because of my great introduction.”Sasso: “Hahaha!”Dukakis: “Who was that weirdo?!”Sasso: “Bill Clinton, the Governor of Arkansas. He won’t amount to a thing, trust me.”

Hotel Room Revelations.Returning back to his hotel room, Bill Clinton contemplates his future. He changed his mind about running this year and has regretted it for months. He knows his speech bombed, and Dukakis is likely to win the presidency. If he is elected, Dukakis is very unlikely to decline to run for reelection in 1992. Bill Clinton realizes that it will be 1996 before he can ever run for President. But hey, he’s only forty-one. He’s got an election up in 1990, and should he win and begin serving that term in 1991, he would serve until 1995. That’s a lot of time to make change in Arkansas, he thinks. He discusses the situation with his wife, Hillary and makes a decision. He’ll run for reelection in 1990, but that will be his last term. Once he’s out of office in 1995, he’ll have a head start on any other Democratic candidate. In 1996, he could be the “Arkansas miracle.”

In his own hotel room, Senator Al Gore has reached the same conclusion, that it will be 1996 before he can try again. He’ll be older than, he knows he was too young now. “But will Gephardt run?” he wonders? It’ll be tough to beat a Vice-President but he realizes that absent another Jesse Jackson run, he’ll be the only candidate from the south.

September 14, 1988: A Photo-Op Rejected.A member of Dukakis’ campaign suggests that the Governor should stage a photo op with him in a tank, but it is rejected by Sasso since Dukakis has a lead in the polls and does not want to do anything drastic. In addition, he does not want to mock a World War II veteran. “Just focus on Bush, don’t change yourself” Sasso advises.

October 1, 1988: Bush’s Situation.George Bush knows he’s in trouble and his campaign is running out of ideas. The debates were mostly a draw, and that’s not what he needs. Current polls have Dukakis up 49-42. Bush’s campaign manager suggests bringing up Willie Horton again, but the others disagree. It will sound so desperate, so racial, and so negative that it will only backfire. It is beneath them.

November 7th 1988: The Discovery of Sally Atwater.The widow of Lee Atwater, Sally, has almost finished sorting through her late husband’s papers. She comes upon a paper listing his notes on the 1988 election. In it, her husband has described his approach for the campaign:

“1. Portray Dukakis as a far-left Democrat out of touch with America.2. He supported furloughs from prison for convicts. Mention Willie Horton!3. Dukakis has no foreign policy or national security experience, emphasize this.Most important: Create and distribute negative television commercials that highlight these faults.”

Sally Atwater reads this paper and compares it with what the almost inept Bush campaign has accomplished. They have portrayed Dukakis as far-left but people don’t seem to care. Willie Horton backfired. Dukakis lack of foreign policy experience has been ignored because of his service as Governor. The “Massachusetts Miracle” was too strong to overcome. Sally remembered the repeating commercial boasting that the National Governors Association voted Dukakis the most effective governor in 1986. She wishes her husband had just one more year to help the Bush campaign. But she is tired of feeling sad, so she dismisses the dream.

Back at Bush campaign headquarters, the Vice President and Senator Quayle are upbeat, but after they leave, the campaign workers are subdued, and hope for a miracle tomorrow…

November 8, 1988: Michael Dukakis Elected President!Governor Michael Dukakis has been elected as the 41st President of the United States, defeating Vice-President George H.W. Bush, 53% to 47%. In a race that was difficult from the beginning, George Bush was unable to stop the Dukakis message of change after eight years of Ronald Reagan. Dick Gephardt will take office as the nation’s Vice-President, at only forty-seven years old. He is a young leader of the Democratic Party, representing the hopes of the Midwest and the labor movement.

The Last section of President-Elect Michael Dukakis’ speech:

“And one of the things that I'm proudest of in this campaign is the thousands and thousands of young people who are involved. I don't want you to be discouraged; I want you to be encouraged by what you've done in this campaign. I hope many of you will go into politics and public service. It is a noble profession, a noble profession.

I remember what my dad used to say to me over and over again. Much has been given to you, and much is expected of you. Much has been given to the young people of this country. The opportunity to live and grow up in the greatest nation on the face of this earth. And you have a responsibility to give something back.

Our hearts are full, we love you all, we love this country, and we're going to continue to fight with you and the American people so that every citizen of this country can be a full shareholder in the American dream.

November 8, 1988 Democrats gain in Senate and House.Adding to the Democratic Party’s Presidential victory, the Democrats gained 4 seats in the Senate and 18 in the House of Representatives. Previously, the Democrats has 54 in the Senate, they will now have 58. In the House, they previously had 258 and the Republicans 177, now the Democrats will have 278 and the Republicans 157.

But because of Dukakis’ win, I have reversed these three outcomes, and so:In Florida: Buddy McKay, and not Connie Mack becomes Florida’s next SenatorIn Montana: John Melcher keeps his seat against Conrad Burns.In Washington Mike Lowry defeats Slade Gordon.

As a result, instead of the Democrats gaining 1 seat in the Senate, they gain 4 seats. And instead of only gaining 2 seats in the House, they gain 18 seats.

I'm actually writing a research paper about the 1988 campaign. Lee Atwater really was the man responsible for turning a 17 point loss in the polls into an 8 point win on election day. Without Atwater, I don't think the Bush campaign would have had the guts to attack the way Atwater did.

I would also give more to Dukakis on election day. In a 6 point win, I also would have given him Delaware, New Jersey, Montana, and South Dakota, giving him 331 in the electoral college.

You should do one as if he didn't have cancer. He probably could have defeated Clinton, he was preparing for him to be the nominee right after the '88 election.

That does sound like a good idea... Bush defeats Clinton in 92. I should do that one after I finish this.

This is my first timeline and I'm still figuring out my style, so it may change later on. I have it drafted up until 2000 so far.

Sneak peeks: The 1996 Democratic Primary will be very interesting, there will be a formation of a third major party in the 90s, and there will be a preemptive war just like Iraq, except it won't be in Iraq, and it will take place in the 90s.

December 10th, 1988: President Elect Dukakis Announces Cabinet Choices.A few figures from the Carter Administration, most notably former Vice President Walter Mondale, combined with a diverse group of individuals compose the President-Elect's Cabinet.

Secretary of State: Walter F. Mondale, the former Vice President of the United States.Secretary of Treasury: E. Gerald Corrigan, the current president of the New York Federal Reserve BankSecretary of Defense: William Perry, Undersecretary of Defense for research and engineering during the Carter AdministrationAttorney General: Susan Estrich, Harvard law professor, the first woman in history to head the Justice DepartmentSecretary of the Interior: Bruce Babbitt, former Governor of Arizona.Secretary of Agriculture: James Allen "Jim" Hightower, Agriculture Commissioner of TexasSecretary of Commerce: William M. Daley, Vice Chairman of the Amalgamated Bank of ChicagoSecretary of Labor: Eleanor Holmes Norton, Georgetown University law professor who was commissioner of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission in the Carter Administration.Secretary of Health and Human Services: Deborah Prothrow-Stith, Massachusetts health commissionerSecretary of Education: Mary Hatwood Futrell, president of the National Education AssnSecretary of Housing andUrban Development: Henry Cisneros, former Mayor of San Antonio, Texas.Secretary of Transportation: Federico Peńa, the Mayor of Denver.Secretary of Energy: Charles Duncan, Jr., former Secretary of Energy during the Carter Administration.Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Jesse Brown, Deputy National Service Director of the Disabled American Veterans.

In addition, President-Elect has fulfilled a campaign promise by raising the Environmental Protection Agency to Cabinet status

January 20, 1989: President Michael Dukakis InauguratedMichael Dukakis has taken office as the 41st President of the United States. He is the first Greek-American to hold this office, and the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter. With a Democratic-controlled Congress, it is a new opportunity for Democratic Party.Jan 27, 1989: President Dukakis Disagrees with Congress’ Pay Raise.Today President Dukakis held an informal White House news conference in which he opposed a widely criticized pay raise for Congress scheduled to go into effect the following month. Polls show that the overwhelming majority of the public oppose the pay raise.

Feb 7, 1989: Congress kills the Pay Raise Increase.Bowing to public outrage, both US houses of Congress have voted to kill their scheduled 51 percent pay increase. Privately, some Democratic members of Congress are disappointed that the President stood in opposition to them so quickly in his term.

Apr 13, 1989: Speaker Wright Defends HimselfUS House Speaker Jim Wright delivered an emotional defense of his conduct against ethics charges, declaring he would "fight to the last ounce of conviction and energy" he possessed. This is quickly turning into a political scandal, and Republicans in Congress are eagerly awaiting the report from the US House Ethics Committee. President Dukakis is frustrated by this distraction and hopes it ends soon so Congress can enact his agenda.

Apr 17, 1989: Report Finds Speaker Wright Violated House Rules.The US House Ethics Committee released its report accusing Speaker Jim Wright of violating House rules on the acceptance of gifts and outside income -- charges denied by the Texas Democrat. The report implies that he had used bulk purchases of his book, Reflections of a Public Man, to earn speaking fees in excess of the allowed maximum, and that his wife, Betty, was given a job and perks to avoid the limit on gifts. Minority Leader Robert Michel and Minority Whip Dick Cheney have called for Wright to resign. There is a refusal on the Democrats’ side to join in denying the accusations.

May 11, 1989: President Dukakis Rules Out Military Option in PanamaPresident Dukakis has stated that he will not use military force in Panama. “It is not the interest of the United States to use military action in Panama. As we have seen in Vietnam, the United States should avoid military action unless is it absolutely necessary. I am sending Secretary of State Walter Mondale to Panama to meet with Noriega to discuss the situation.” In Panama, the government of Gen. Manuel Antonio Noriega announced it had nullified the country's elections, which independent observers said the opposition had won by a 3-1 margin.

May 12, 1989: Democrats and Republicans Split on President’s Panama Decision.The Democrats and Republicans each are split on President Dukakis’ refusal to use military action in Panama. With the Democrats, many anti-war liberals have applauded the President’s decision, while some southern conservative Democrats are disappointed. In the Republican Party, there is also a split, with many reluctant to focus on a foreign issue when the Speaker Wright scandal is lowering the public’s support of Democrats. Others, mainly of the neoconservatives are outraged. One of the strongest opinions was that of Minority Leader Dick Cheney, who has stated that “when Americans abroad are in danger, and democracy is at threat, the United States must act in any way possible.”

May 31, 1989: Speaker Wright Resigns.Faced with an increasing loss of effectiveness, Wright tendered his resignation, the resignation to become effective on the selection of a successor. He is the first Speaker to resign because of a scandal.

June 6, 1989: Democrats Select Thomas Foley as Speaker.In Washington, DC, the Democratic Caucus brought Wright's speakership to an end by selecting his replacement, Thomas Foley of Washington, to be elected the 49th speaker of the House of Representatives. There is also heavy speculation that Majority Whip Tony Coelho will resign following press reports that he had received a loan from a savings and loan executive to purchase junk bonds.

June 14, 1989: Democrats Choose William Gray as Minority Leader.Following a vacancy in the Majority Leader’s position, and the likely resignation of Majority Whip Tony Coelho, the US House Democrats have chosen William Gray to be majority leader, the highest leadership position in Congress held by an African American and Steny Hoyer to be majority whip.

July 1, 1989: Democrats Suffer in New Polls.Following the ethics charges and resignation of their Speaker, combined with the resignation of their Majority Whip, the Democratic Party has sharply decreased in polls as a result. The Generic Congressional Vote Poll shows 50% Republican and 43% Democrat.

This is great! Does the Dukakis administration have any major domestic policy pushes ahead?

Curses I completely forgot about that! Well let's assume that any major legislation was delayed until the Speaker Wright scandal had ended. I'm drafting it right now, it looks very good for the working class and labor unions, very bad for neoconservatives on defense policy, and too socially liberal for 1989.