Estimating aftereffects of the prolonged New Year holidays on GDP in Russia| 10-04-2010

Project Dates: December 2009  January 2010

The survey was conducted for the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants.

Project Summary:

It is obvious that due to the fact that May holidays were shifted to extra days-off in January the number of working days in January reduced. GDP drop in January compared to December in 2004 increased significantly and the gap remained unchanged during the following years. There was dynamics of the monthly GDP index and industry reports as well as employment fluctuations analyzed under the project with the purpose of studying the following questions:

Did production rate improve in January and possibly in February due to the prolonged holiday period in January?

What was GDP loss in conversion to one holiday?

What was industry structure of the GDP loss in January? Did tertiary sector benefit from the prolonged holiday period?

Did GDP growth in May make for the GDP loss in January? If not, what was the reason?

Did the number of days-off in lieu in May increased compared to the time before the holiday period had been shifted?

Arguments supporting prolonged holiday period in January are based on the positive effect of long vacation on health, mortality rate and so on. It could also be important regarding the fact that the burst of contagious and cold-related diseases usually takes place in January. There was dynamics of the monthly morbidity rate and monthly mortality rate for the period of 20002008 analyzed under the project with the purpose of studying the following questions:

Did dynamics of the contagious and cold-related diseases spread change in January compared to December and February after the holiday period had been shifted?

How did prolonged holiday period influence alcohol consumption patterns, as well as morbidity rate and mortality rate caused by alcohol consumption?

Did child mortality rate caused by road traffic accidents decrease due to the fact that children spent their winter holidays in parentsí care?