Can GOP gain in the Legislature?

Gov. Chris Christie addresses state legislators during Monday‚??s special session in the Assembly chambers at the Statehouse in Trenton. Tim Larsen/Office of the Governo Governor Chris Christie calls on State Legislature to act on tax relief during a special session in the Assembly Chamber at the Statehouse in Trenton, N.J. on Monday, July 2, 2012. (Governor's Office/Tim Larsen)

With the Democratic nomination for governor Barbara Buono's for the taking, the Middlesex County senator is one step closer to where her ambition leads her.

But even Buono herself is acknowledging the difficulty of her quest to wrest the big chair away from Republican Gov. Chris Christie. On Monday, she discussed her 1994 Assembly bid, which she won, as an example of her ability to rise above adversity.

"The odds were stacked against me then, too," Buono said during a noon news conference at the Trenton Marriott.

Already, though, the gaze has shifted from Buono and toward the Legislature, where some fear that a Christie landslide could boot countless Democrats out of office and tip the balance of power.

Senate President Steve Sweeney, D-Gloucester, hinted at that in his announcement that he would not seek the governor's seat.

"I've decided my work now needs to be focused on ensuring the Legislature remains in Democratic control," he said in a statement.

It will not be idle work. Even some Republicans, their numbers in the Legislature depressed in part by a redistricting map that nearly guarantees Democrats victory in a majority of districts, are starting to make noise about latching on to Christie's coattails and making a run at recapturing at least the state Senate.

This talk of a major shift in the state Legislature is fueled by two things: An incredibly popular Republican governor and a Democratic candidate perceived even in her own party as weak. In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, Christie beats Buono by 63 percent to 22 percent among registered voters, and the governor scored approval ratings of 74 percent.

But what of that pesky redistricting map?

Republicans learned the hard way in 2011 that optimism plus boundless bundles of cash do not always equal victory. In two targeted districts, the 2nd in Atlantic County and the 38th in Bergen County, Democrats and Republicans spent about $10 million to reaffirm the status quo. Republicans hoped to pick up at least one of the seats. They didn't.

The GOP optimists (and Democratic pessimists) will say, however, that Christie and his 74 percent approval rating didn't top the ticket in 2011. If there is any hope for a Republican revival in the Legislature, it is in that reality coupled with an inept Buono campaign.

Don't count on the latter. Buono is not stupid or inept. She's aimed her career at this goal and she's now one admittedly big step away from achieving it. She will have money (although not as much as Democratic candidates for governor are used to) and she will have a solid political team to help her.

She may not win, but she could mount a surprisingly strong challenge, enough to dull the glow of the governor and save the Democrats from an electoral Armageddon.

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Can GOP gain in the Legislature?

With the Democratic nomination for governor Barbara Buono's for the taking, the Middlesex County senator is one step closer to where her ambition leads her.

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