Last updated: Sun, Oct 07, 2007 23:19 PM (EAT)
On his brief visit to Uganda, Kenyas leading opposition candidate Raila Odinga, was hosted on 93.3 K- fms political talk show the Hot Seat hosted by Charles Mwanguhya Mpagi. Mr Odinga who is leader of the Orange Democratic Movement was accompanied to the show by Mvita MP Najib Balala. They discussed the Kenyan elections, the East African Federation and African leadership. Daily Monitors Jan Ajwang listened in and has the excerpts Host: Mr Odinga many people here wonder which political party you belong to; they dont seem to understand the evaluation of political parties in Kenya; Which political party do you represent?
Odinga: Multi party politics in Kenya has been going through an evolution. When we repealed section 2 a) of the constitution which had made the country a single party dictatorship in 1991 ,the movement that was responsible was Ford. Soon a number of parties came up with Ford itself splitting into ford Kenya and Ford Asili. More parties sprung and we formed the National Development Party. We then formed an alliance with the then ruling party [KANU] but we disagreed and eventually formed the liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

LDP went into an alliance with other parties just before the last general elections, with another group of parties like Ford Kenya, Democratic Party, National alliance Party of Kenya to form the National Rainbow Coalition- NARC. LDP wasnt dissolved; it just remained as a coalition partner. The coalition collapsed because of disagreement among the partners. LDP walked out of the coalition and remained on its own. When the referendum came, LDP joined with KANU to oppose the draft constitution which was being imposed by the regime on Kenyans

The symbol at that time was the orange for those voting NO and a banana for that e voting YES. That is how ODM sprung up and from then we coined it and it became a political party of its own .We realised that there was need to consolidate the movement by getting KANU and LDP to come together.

Does this mean that you have dissolved the LDP?

Odinga: LDP hasnt been resolved; we agreed that the parties constituting the ODM remain dormant, because it would confuse the electorate. Instead we chose to concentrate on strengthening the ODM as movement ahead of the elections. ODM is now a political party but it is not a coalition. The constituent parties themselves have become dormant and we hope ODM will evolve into a strong political party by which time we will be able to dissolve all the other parties from which it was constituted.

Host: What is the purpose of your Visit to Uganda?

Odinga: I was invited by students studying in various universities here. - We have an ODM chapter in Uganda. They invited me to give a talk, at Makerere University and there is a fund-raising dinner, at the Grand Imperial Hotel. I have also been talking to friends around in town, basically explaining what is going on in Kenya and drumming up support. We are looking for moral and material support from whoever can give us assistance at this moment in time.

Host: Would one say that you are trying to prepare ground in case you get elected?

Odinga: Yes. We really want to cultivate the spirit of East African Corporation. We want to see that the process of integration of East Africa is fast tracked. We are trying to basically have an exchange with the people in advance before we are elected. When we come to government we want to fast track this process [East African Federation]

Host: You are speaking with a lot of confidence, as if you have already won the elections. Are you sure you have already won?

Odinga: It is not the question of if, it is the question of when I will win the elections. I have a lot of confidence that the people of Kenya are going to demonstrate that they want change and which they know that I do represent.

Host: Watching Kenyan politics, most Ugandans have always known that former President Daniel Arap Moi won the elections not because he got the majority votes but because the opposition was much divided. With the divisions from NARC, to ODM and now there is ODM-Kenya, arent you giving President Mwai Kibaki another victory on a silver platter?

Odinga: Moi never used to really win. He used to rig himself back into power in both 1992 and in 1997. But in 2002 we came together as the opposition and we beat him against his project. This time he is now backing President Mwai Kibaki. We in the ODM are fairly united, there is a minor splinter group ODM-K that walked out, but by and large we have remained more intact. The presidents camp is in more disarray and that gives us the confidence that we shall win the elections.

Host: Mr Najib dont you think that this is just political ground [grand] standing that Hon Odinga is telling us that he is sure of victory?

Balala: There will be two challenges two horse races one is ODM and the other we expected that president will come with a horse call PNU. PNU is like a chameleon as it has many colours. There is Ford-Kenya, DP, KANU and they are all fighting against each other.

We also believe that there are two tribes, in Kenya. One is the old guard that are campaigning for the status quo, protecting the stolen wealth that they have. They are a few elite that dont want to rock the boat in terms of ideas and transformation of this country. The second one is a young and dynamic and all  inclusive team that believes in the real change for all and that is ODM. That is why we said that we believe that we can change because the majority of Kenyans want to raise above tribalism that Kibaki and his team have cultivated in the last five years. Secondly we want to fight corruption considering that Kibaki and his team came from Goldenberg to come to Anglo- leasing corruption scandals. Thirdly, Tribalism has been entrenched in the government and dominated by one tribe- This is what we are fighting against.

2. If Raila wins- this will be the 1st history in African politics- a sitting president in EA given only one term- but I doubt if he will win as most Kenyans I have spoken to seem to support the idea that- Kibaki be given a 2nd Term!

3. Naona kama Kenyan Politics as more sophiscated than Tanzanian. In Tz CCM has more democracy within than other parties- since 1990s other parties (except CHADEMA) we hear of only Mrema, Lipumba, Seif, Mapesa.

4. We wait and see- if Raila is elected, other EA countries will learn a lot from Kenyan politics!

2. If Raila wins- this will be the 1st history in African politics- a sitting president in EA given only one term- but I doubt if he will win as most Kenyans I have spoken to seem to support the idea that- Kibaki be given a 2nd Term!

3. Naona kama Kenyan Politics as more sophiscated than Tanzanian. In Tz CCM has more democracy within than other parties- since 1990s other parties (except CHADEMA) we hear of only Mrema, Lipumba, Seif, Mapesa.

4. We wait and see- if Raila is elected, other EA countries will learn a lot from Kenyan politics!

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I read your contribution above with interest and smiles as well. Although my age and experience in journalistic politics do not allow me to say so, poteleambali nitaisema tu: hao "waKenya wengi" ambao umewahojia na wanasapot Kibaki's second term are likely to be from one wellknown region of Kenya which is behind the President 99%. Otherwise, much as I am campaigning for Raila in broad daylight, it should be accepted that 9 successive opinion polls reveal that Raila is leading in terms of kura ya maoni. At least if we argue that nine polls sampling randomly cannot all be a mistake when they conclude that majority fo Kenyans are for Raila.

The President cooked his own political blunders with his kitchen cabinet. The meal is ready and let them not shy from tasting its bitter taste: ie humiliating and historic defeat in the forthcoming polls.

Imagine he will hand over power to Raila and then sit in Parliament as a backbench opposition MP for Othaya which is likely to give him another term as their MP. How excited must the Political science and professors be at the prospect of this unprecedented yet imminent situation!

Kibaki and wambea wake wakule retire tu polepole. This is a Raila moment and I have taken more than a year to accept this fact having put my year close to the ground in Western Kenya where I hail from. In villages, in beermeetings and even in football matches all over my village and beyond, the peasants have accepted the Raila presidency already just as they accepted the demise of KANU. Coming from a region whose leaders are at crossroads with this truth for they have chosen to support Kibaki up to the bitter end, I only wish them bravery as they taste that bitterness for the next 5 years as Opposition MPs.

The sly political eye will recognize that this is not a personality politics election common in Kenya, but a historic locking of horns of two lines of political thoughts in Kenya's post-colonial history: Kenyattaism (with Moi and Kibaki and Kenyatta jnr as its successive proponents) based on status quo of a booming economy controlled by the petty bourgeoisie of a particular infamous community and Odingaism (with Odinga Snr and Odinga jnr as its main voices), a political thought that places emphasis on the masses of Kenyan peasants in a trans-ethnic and inter-regional manner.

By voting in Raila the Kenyan nation would essentially be saying that out goes Kenyatta and his legacy and in (posthumuosly but through his own annointed son) enters Odinga the Senior and the Kenya he dreamt off but never saw in his long life as the Doyen of opposition politics in Kenya.

Tanzanians need not worry. Oscar Kambona may not have made it to achieve his political ideals however time will come when another acceptable leader expounding a revised and popular Kambonaist line of political thought will oust CCM in aheated election contest and bring a completely different vision of the Tanzanian Dream.

Let diversity in all its forms prevail. Be it of the racial, cultural, linguistic, economic, religious and even political type.

Hey, which other incumbent has lost an election in Africa as kibaki is obviously going to??

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Not one that I know of Mnairobi. Trust Kenyans to always make history in one way or the other. Kibaki will be studied, lectures will be given on him and his political failures for many generations to come. I will be more than happy to help my grandson answer the question: Who was the first African president to lose a re-election bid for a second-term as president of his/her country? You know the answer folks.

Raila is allowed to change as many parties as he wants. I dont believe that there is a law which bars him from that. Changing parties helped Kenya remove the moism and its what is going to make Kenyans remove Kibaki and his band of wives who go about slapping ministers and slapping journalists. How many times have Kibaki changed parties? 7 times. Moi has changed how many times? 2-3 times. Please dont think that its cool being a life member of a party. it just kills democracy.

Utanyanyaswa vile CCM inanyanyasa wapinzani ndani ya chama. We must wake up to the fact that defection is here to stay and its good for us.

Alai,
We wait and see! Raila yeye asubiri tu hadi 2012- this time Kibaki will win for the 2nd term! If Kibakis wives have problems- what should he do at that age? No one is perfect- kuvumliana tu- Lucy is just her character- that is the way she is!
Should a man be blammed for his wife's deeds? Wacha kila mtu achukue mzigo wake mwenyewe!
Ukweli ni kuwa uchumi Kenya umekwenda juu wakati wa Kibaki! We give him another 5 yrs to finish his mission!

Alai,
We wait and see! Raila yeye asubiri tu hadi 2012- this time Kibaki will win for the 2nd term! If Kibakis wives have problems- what should he do at that age? No one is perfect- kuvumliana tu- Lucy is just her character- that is the way she is!
Should a man be blammed for his wife's deeds? Wacha kila mtu achukue mzigo wake mwenyewe!
Ukweli ni kuwa uchumi Kenya umekwenda juu wakati wa Kibaki! We give him another 5 yrs to finish his mission!

Kenyan-Tanzanian,
I am just a realist- Kibaki will get a 2nd term- no other sitting president in EA region has just won one term- Kenya is not unique in African politics- we wait and see!

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Kibaki can win only through a miracle and the consequences of such many may live to remember. This is why.

PNU and its operatives are working out all sorts of strategies to counter the heady Raila tsunami sweeping like a wild bush fire across Kenya. But they are scared for the good reason that they know where their weakness lies. One versus Many. Kibaki like no other east African leader in East Africa before him is locked in a situation which is not only unique but sets Kenya;s politics in a class of its own.is locked Kibaki's weakness is that he is against a coalition

He is the first leader to face a stone hard coalition of ethnic and regional political baron in a country where one wins or loses an election on the basis of such coalitions. The British used these barons, Kenyatta inherited the baron politics, handed it over to the perfectionist Moi and in 2002 it worked against Moi himself and since exiling these barons from his government after they defeated him in the National Referendum, Kibaki has always known what he will be facing come December this year.

He will not only be facing Raila. He will be facing the mind of Kenyan politics. How it works. With six out of eight regional (and ethnic) barons solidly behind Raila and one province behind the third presidential candidate, Kalonzo, it does not need Einstein's mind to see why even foreign embassies can predict who will be in State House next year. Kibaki only has solid minority supports from about six provinces and a hard majority from his own mother province and almost nothing from Raila's home province which votes to the last man for their own.

Kibaki will get votes, I agree as all people do. He will get kuras that is the required 25&#37; in at least 5 provinces but looking at the ethnic mathematics in Kenyan election campaigns 2007, he will lose because of the formidable numerical force he is up against.

Mzalendo, dont be knaive, you know just like anyone objective does that Kenya can surprise many anyday just as it did when some said Moi's end will mark our first civil war. Remember some predicting that though defeat was imminent, Kibaki would use government and state machinery to rig in an unpopular constitution in 2005. Both predictions were naturally disappointed yet they used your frame of reference: Kenya is not an exceptional African country. What goes round in other East African or African countries must come to Kenya too. Well, this may be true but at least the time for it hasnt come yet.

The other truth is that Kenya, and any other African country for that matter, is as special as its own particular national "mind" borne out of its specific history and present realities.

For instance, in spite of our violent societal nature, Kenyans can, and many will vouch me on this one, conteplate fullscale anarchy or civil strife if you like when the sovereignty of our Republic is at stake. Violence here may reach fever pitch like the Mungiki fiasco early in the year but the situation normally finds its resolution in good time somehow.

Let me explain pole pole why its logic rather than emotion that predicts there will be a new man in State House, Nairobi leading Kenyans into the New Year.

Paradoxically, though logical, it is not reason that prevails in the life of Kenyan politics. It is the management of the intricate colonial-created tribal mathematics which if well calculated gives you victory. Raila has calculated well. He needs 25% from at least 5 provinces and a simple majority sum across the nation. To get this you must make alliances with the most popular leaders of all regions beside yours and ensure everybody brings huge parts of the votes in their own areas to your election box. You rely on these lietenants to campaign so thoroughly that while you get the kost of the votes you also block out your opponents' votes the much you can. This is the trick. This is Moi's golden lifeline over the years and this is Raila's wisely borrowed strategy for his presidential campaign which begun with the defeat of the 2005 Referendum.

He aims at getting an average of 70% in at least four provinces leaving Kibaki and Kalonzo to struggle for the 35%. These provinces are Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley, Coast and North Eastern.Then get 60% in Coast and 50% in Nairobi leaving Kibaki and Kalonzo to scramble for 40% and 50% in the respective provinces. Then Raila only needs 30% from Kalonzo's Eastern Province and 5% from Kibaki's tiny though heavily populated Central province.

Now, I must warn you that I have tried to decrease the Polls's ratings for Raila and ODM in all provinces by 5% except Nyanza which normally votes en majorite for Raila.

Now, the only way Kibaki will escape from this well-set trap is by "the usual African ways of getting a second-term" = Bribing voters, enrolling more voters including the under-aged in your strongholds, violence, and manipulation of voter records to lower the power of your opponents.

PNU has tried all these already but as you may rightly be aware, most of these techniques only work if you have the help of pointsmen in other regions to duplicate what "you do" in your province in their own provinces so as to give you a lead. This was the hallmark and genius of Kenyatta and later perfected by Moi.

Kibaki's allies from the other region are his Achilles Heel. Here they are:

1. Simeon Nyachae (Nyanza). If he manages to counter the ripe ODM wave in his Kisii backyard and deliver all the Kisii votes he will give Kibaki 15% because the Luos make 75% of the Nyanza province and vote for Raila, their own son as a block.

2. Musikari Kombo (Western). In this province there are 25 subtribes which together are known as the Luhyas. 24 are behind Mudavadi who is backing Raila and is the running mate. Therefore 80% of the voters in the province have shown they are for Raila. Kombo leads one subtribe, the biggest, called the Bukusus and will with an MP here and there from the wider ODM friendly Western province deliver all their voters to Kibaki. Sadly they only account, as one subtribe out of twenty five they only account for at most 20%.

3. Daniel Moi (Rift Valley) - An influential figure capable of delivering the old generation of Kalenjins and the Rift Valley Kikuyus to Kibaki. They will amount to 40% or slightly more. The youth and women of Kalenjin have consistently backed Raila and so have the Maasais, Samburus and other pastoralists in the province. These latter group accounts for the majority of the province so again Kibaki loses.

4. Eastern - Kibaki relies on the Merus and Embus who are cousins of the Kikuyus. He will definitely get 20% or even more but not over 35%. This is because this is the province of the third presidential candidate Kalonzo and the numerically superior tribe in the province, the Kamba are voting for their own to the last man. Kalonzo has consistently led with upto 60% in the province. Raila isnt likely to get much here maybe 20%

5. Coast - Muslims in Kenya are nonpartisan but this time appear to be inclined towards Raila because the Bomas Draft taht Raila's campaign is based upon is Muslim-friendly in certain aspects including banning the US-sponsored and Kibaki implemented Anti-Terrorism Act. Raila relies on the Arab and Arabized Muslims of the coast who are solidly behind him to clinch the lion share of Uswahilini. Kibaki relies on the old Arab/African tensions here to win the support of the largely Christian coastal bantus who can give him upto 40%. Kalonzo may split Kibakis vote significantly because a third of these coastal bantus are Kamba migrant labor that has over the years established itself at the coast.

6. North Eastern - Following the Muslim inclination towards Raila, and his promise to unleash a Marshall plan for Kenya's most neglected province together with the province's loved leaders like Billow Kerrow, Kibaki has no chance here. This is made more complicated bythe fact that the Somalis felt let down when the Kibaki government supported the fall of the Sharia regime in Somalia. Here Kibaki relies on the traditional Moi thinking that people in need always vote for the government. Lately it hasnt worked. They rejected Mois candidate in 2002 and voted overwhelmingly against Kibaki in the 2005 referendum despite their hardships.

7. Central - No comments. They will vote to the last man, woman and youth for Kibaki. He will get 99% here. Needless to say that this is the only province in Kenya made of one tribe. And the whole tribe is intoxicated with the Kibaki re-election bid if we go by their normal voting pattern: none but their own.

8. Nairobi - Raila is the MP of Langata which is in Nairobi province. He commands a lot of the province's vote because of its concentration of people from all over Kenya, majority who are from the six provinces where Raila is popularly and will likely vote like their home provinces. The central Kenya Nairobi residents who shrink in number in the face of the coalition of other tribes are likely to win four out of the six seats as ODM scoops the rest. Using past trends, Raila will scoop at least 50% and Kibaki will share with 40% for himself and 10% to Kalonzo.

This is the closest you can get to a detailed explanation of the politics of Kenya and why this is not just any African country's election but a unique politics formed by our past and present realities.

Buy me a gift if ODM wins and the patterns of victory follow my experienced breakdown. I will do the same if H.E. Emilio Mwai Kibaki miraculously wins and Kenya doesnt boil over in protesting the obvious lie.

Raila is allowed to change as many parties as he wants. I dont believe that there is a law which bars him from that. Changing parties helped Kenya remove the moism and its what is going to make Kenyans remove Kibaki and his band of wives who go about slapping ministers and slapping journalists. How many times have Kibaki changed parties? 7 times. Moi has changed how many times? 2-3 times. Please dont think that its cool being a life member of a party. it just kills democracy.

Utanyanyaswa vile CCM inanyanyasa wapinzani ndani ya chama. We must wake up to the fact that defection is here to stay and its good for us.