Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Get Gamm – Week NineJust nine games on tap this week and the Big Ten crown is already clinched. Don’t let that be an excuse to tune out, however. Teams like Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, maybe even Indiana are still very much playing for their tournament lives. Each can help or hinder themselves greatly with good results this week.

Indiana and Purdue have the most to gain with cupcakes gracing the slate this week. Iowa can also help itself immensely by taking care of Penn State and making a statement in the regular season finale against Illinois. The Illini would silence any speculation that they still reside on the bubble by getting a very rare road win. Michigan probably needs to sweep its rivals AND win two or more in Chicago to get a sniff, and that makes them dangerous.

Ohio State and Wisconsin can’t get any better or worse when it comes to Big Ten standings but would like to finish strong. Michigan State would love to parlay the recent string of success had at home to a big road win or two and make a case for maybe even a 5 seed in the Big Dance.

So you see, there is plenty at stake this week, not to mention the seeds 3-11 for the Big Ten Tournament next week…

Michigan is in dire need of at least one statement win if it wants to even get a glance from the NCAA Selection Committee. At least one. First thing’s first – a date with rival Michigan State. The Spartans have owned the Wolverines for going on ten years and have only been picked off by the maize and blue twice in 16 meetings. Both were in Ann Arbor. What little assistance Maize Rage might be able to offer will be rendered even less useful since the students are on Spring Break. Michigan’s desperation and Drew Neitzel’s battle with the flu are the two reasons why the Wolverines could win this game. That said, MSU plays too tough on defense and the glass and Michigan doesn’t pressure the ball enough to cause MSU to have an avalanche of turnovers. Michigan State 63 – Michigan 59.

Northwestern is due for one of those late season shocking upsets at Welsh Ryan. This is the last chance for that and to save any hopes of a postseason berth. Indiana has been struggling of late and I wonder what playing Wisconsin and Ohio State twice (rather than once) each this season would mean for the Hoosiers’ tourney hopes? Indiana is sliding towards the bubble but a win here means important breathing room. Indiana 61 – Northwestern 53.

Iowa is one of those teams that based on conference play, probably should be strongly considered for the Big Dance. Trouble is, the Hawkeyes bombed in the pre-conference portion of the season and that means Iowa needs this one and likely two or three more to get consideration. Penn State has had a miserable run this season, shocking given the decent talent on the roster. Like NU, I am surprised they haven’t had that upset win at home yet. And they won’t. Iowa 71 – Penn State 64.

Purdue is another team that just needs wins. The good news for the Boilers is that given their OOC success, they are ahead of Iowa in the pecking order. The bad news is, aside from Indiana and Michigan State, who have they taken out of note lately? Minnesota puts up a fight in every single game, which gives them a chance. But, I fully expect Purdue to take care of business. Purdue 68 – Minnesota 60.

This rematch is all about righting the ship, facing life without Brian Butch, Senior Day and payback. The outcome might be more predictable if Wisconsin had all of the above and the Big Ten title on the line, but alas the losses to MSU and OSU last week make this nothing more than the last regular season game for the Badgers. Part of me says that the Badgers will get a decent measure of payback, but another part wonders if they’ll be into the game as much with the two seed in the Big Ten tourney locked up and a one or two in the NCAA all but a shoe in. Senior Day is the difference in another classic MSU – Wisconsin battle. Wisconsin 63 – Michigan State 57.

Illinois’ trip to Iowa is the biggest game of the week – the one with the most meaning. It probably will have a bearing on the seeding for the Big Ten Tournament and certainly offers Illinois a chance to be firmly in the NCAA Tourney. It also gives Iowa a really big chance to make a late statement to the Selection Committee. Senior Day in Iowa will be one last chance for Haluska to shine bright. Iowa 64 – Illinois 62.

Northwestern could sneak up on Purdue, but it’s not likely. There isn’t much to say except this could solidify Purdue as a tournament team as well. Purdue 68 – Northwestern 49.

Much like Wisconsin, Ohio State has little to play for. Well, if pride and another win over hated Michigan is considered little. To remove any doubt of whether or not the Buckeyes deserve a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, a big win in Ann Arbor could be key. After a tough loss at home against Michigan State, this one spells N-I-T for Michigan. Ohio State 78 – Michigan 70.

A carbon copy of Northwestern-Purdue. A chance for Indiana to erase some doubt. Indiana 74 – Penn State 56.

Monday, February 26, 2007

February’s frenzyIt seems funny to me that all the attention in college basketball is always placed on March. No question about it, March is where champions are crowned (well, technically it happens in the first few days of April) but in my opinion, champions are made in the frenzied chaos of February.

Sure, a team can go on a run in the postseason conference tournament and then parlay that into big success in the NCAA Tournament, but more often than not, your champions are being molded in late January and February during the grind of conference play.

All season long, many thought it was Wisconsin’s Big Ten title to lose. Well, in fact it was. A schedule back-loaded with a week that included road trips to East Lansing and Columbus shattered conference championship dreams for the Badgers. Meanwhile, a one-month span (January 27 – February 25) built our champion – Ohio State. And perhaps more than that, it may have signaled that the young and ferocious Buckeyes are truly a team to be reckoned with when they say it matters most (March).

Now that the league crown is salted away and staying in Columbus, we can look at the frenzy that is late February for the rest of the Big Ten. Most experts still think the Big Ten gets five, maybe, maybe six into the Big Dance. If Indiana and Michigan State are in, that means four teams are fighting for one or two slots. Illinois seems to be a given, so that leaves three battling for one, maybe none. If you don’t love this time of year, you mustn’t have a pulse… it doesn’t get any better than this.

Congrats to the Buckeyes…There’s another Big Ten title to boast about in Columbus. It is the second in a row on the hardwood and a nice continuation of the success of the football team. And it was done in a heckuva basketball game. A see-saw battle that the old school fans had to love. Defense, rebounding, guys getting on the floor. Vintage Big Ten ball. Ohio State, TFS salutes you.

Team of the Week…I know, it would make total sense to give the nod to OSU as the team of the week, but bias aside, what Michigan State did might be more impressive. With backs against the wall, the Spartans stunned nemesis Wisconsin at home and then staved off the flu in a comeback win over Indiana. Two more big wins, tournament berth sealing wins, for the green and white.

Player of the Week…The obvious choice might be Drew Neitzel from Michigan State (who was this week’s Co-PoTW with Greg Oden) for the show he put on against Wisconsin and the way he gutted through the flu to make big shots in a key win over Indiana. But I am going to go with a freshman. Raymar Morgan was the biggest reason the Spartans took out Indiana at home, despite facing a 13-point deficit. Morgan was also huge in the game against Wisconsin and solidified his case as one of the top freshman in the conference that doesn’t play for Ohio State…

March Madness...ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi now has five Big Ten teams in (as of 2/26).

Court Storming…I’ve been searching for a really good way to put my feelings about students rushing the court after big wins in college basketball. I am not a fan of a team like Arizona State doing it just because they finally won a conference game. But I have absolutely no issue with say, the Izzone or Value City Arena crowd storming the court in celebration after a big win.

The best take on the issue comes from The State News sports columnist Ethan Conley. Well put Ethan.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Starting the March to MadnessJust in case you didn’t realize it, yesterday (Thursday) marked three weeks until the start of the greatest sports spectacle on earth – the NCAA Tournament. Since we last spoke about March Madness two weeks ago today, quite a bit has changed. Teams have risen and fallen – some even both – and the picture seems to be getting more clear.

Let me reiterate that… SEEMS to be getting more clear.

Before I get to my updated placement of Big Ten teams, let's take a look at where some of the nationally known bracket geeks have the conference slated:

ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi finally has five Big Ten teams in his bracket. Trouble is, one of his “last four in” on 2/21 was Purdue, who got hammered at Iowa. Maybe Illinois slides in that place as they were in his “next four out” category. Wisconsin is a 1, Ohio State is a 2, Indiana is an 8, Michigan State is a 10 and Purdue an 11 (though I bet he changes that to Illinois in his next update).

CSTV's Jerry Palm hasn't updated since last Friday (2/16), but then had five Big Ten teams in the dance. Wisconsin is a 1, Ohio State is also a 1, Indiana is a 6, Purdue is a 10 and Michigan State is a 12.

ESPN.com's Andy Glockner doesn't do a bracket, but has a great weekly take in his Bubble Watch column. His latest gives ultimate love to the Spartans – well deserved after the green and white dispatched No. 1 Wisconsin on Tuesday – and has two teams as locks, two as should be ins and three fighting for one more spot.

Now, what do I think? I still can’t get over the fact that they let the media in on what it is like to be a part of the Selection Committee. Man I’d love to have that gig. Eat, drink, sleep (maybe not), breathe and talk basketball non-stop for five days. Heaven in my book. Anyway, I digress…

First thing is first. Who's in? The Midwest's number 1 seed will go to the winner of the Ohio State - Wisconsin game this weekend. Even though the Badgers lost to Michigan State, if they beat OSU and avoid anything major the rest of the way they deserve a No. 1.

Given where that game is I have Ohio State as a 1 seed. Wisconsin will land a solid 2 but could still slide to a 3 if they drop two games and make an early exit in Chicago. Indiana may have fallen to the 8 range with the ugly loss at Michigan and a road trip to East Lansing on tap. Michigan State is only NOT a lock if they lose out. I.E. win one more and the Spartans are in. It’s all a matter of seeding now.

This is where it gets tricky. Illinois and Purdue and even Iowa are fighting for the other berth. Sorry Michigan fans but who have the Wolverines beaten this season aside from Indiana? Illinois has the benefit of a better OOC resume but Purdue could make a nice run and is bound to finish at least .500. Iowa needs to go 10-6 and win a game in the B10 Tourney to have a prayer of getting in, IMO. At this point, I think Illinois slides in as 10 seed, while Purdue and Iowa ready for the NIT along with Michigan.

This is what each team in contention still has left, how they stand, and what I predict:

Ohio State: Wisconsin at home; Michigan on the road. Currently 13-1, I see 15-1 , a No. 1 seed in the B10 Tourney and in the NCAA Tournament.

Wisconsin: Michigan State at home; Ohio State on the road. Currently 12-2, I see 13-3, a No. 2 seed in the B1o Tourney and in the NCAA Tournament.

Indiana: Penn State at home; Michigan State and Northwestern on the road. Currently 8-5, I see 10-6, a No. 3 seed in the B10 Tourney and an 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa: Illinois at home; Penn State on the road. Currently 8-6, I see 10-6, a No. 4 seed in the B10 Tourney but not enough out of conference "goodness" to get them into the dance. One of the last teams out, NIT bound.

Illinois: Penn State and Iowa on the road. Currently 8-6, I see 9-7, a No. 5 seed in the B10 Tourney and a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue: Minnesota and Northwestern at home; Northwestern on the road. Currently 6-7, I see 9-7, a No. 6 seed in the B10 Tourney and pins and needles on Selection Sunday. Win two in Chicago and I think they slide in. Win one, and the bubble bursts. NIT bound, but don't be shocked to see the Boilers win the NIT.

Michigan State: Indiana at home; Michigan and Wisconsin on the road. Currently 7-6, I see 9-7, a No. 7 seed in the B10 Tourney but a body of work in OOC play that included wins over several teams vying for their conference titles (BYU, Bradley, Texas, Oakland, Vermont, Loyola-Maryland). A 10 seed for the Spartans.

Michigan: Michigan State and Ohio State at home; Minnesota on the road. Currently 6-7, I see 7-9, a No. 8 seed in the B10 Tourney and a return trip to the NIT.

The Big Ten could get six with Purdue and Iowa interesting cases on the fence. But I’d bank on five for now with hopes of much later runs than the 2006 tournament.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Get Gamm – Week EightOh doggy, ESPN calls it Judgment Week and for good reason. This is, by far, the most important week of play in the Big Ten so far this season, possibly the biggest we’ll see even with four more games remaining for most teams.

Have just returned from the warm sunshine of Florida, and not a lot changed while I was gone. Ohio State and Wisconsin remain the cream of the crop, and there is a logjam of epic proportions from slot three through eight. A lot remains at stake for the chasers and oh by the way, Wisconsin travels to Columbus for a little one versus two battle for the crown.

Home teams are now 47-21 (.691) after a 7-3 week but a closer look shows that the top eight teams are an astounding 46-4 (.920) in the friendly confines of their home cage.

Wisconsin travels to Michigan State for a really tough road game before an even tougher road game. I like how the Spartans are playing right now and they still feel urgency to win out at home to ensure a .500 league record. In a classic Badgers vs. Spartans thriller… Michigan State 67 – Wisconsin 66.

Indiana is on a losing skid and needs a little home cooking to get a stranglehold on the third seed in the Big Ten. Minnesota is playing tough but doesn’t have enough horses. Indiana 71 – Minnesota 62.

Penn State gets another shot at Ohio State but more than certainly got their attention with an amazing comeback that fell just short last week. OSU has to be careful to not look ahead to Sunday’s game with the Badgers. Ohio State 73 – Penn State 56.

Texas Pan Am is just what the doctor ordered for Northwestern, who needs to get back to .500 to entertain any thoughts of making the NIT. Northwestern 57 – Texas Pan Am 53.

Another huge game this Judgment Week. Illinois is definitely out numbered but has the home court that is so needed at this time of year. Michigan sprung back to life with a big win over Indiana, but this is a road game. Illinois 56 – Michigan 52.

Purdue at Iowa continues the hugely important stretch run games in the Big Ten. Iowa needs to pile up wins more than anyone thanks to an awful non conference run. Purdue is confident and well rested. A rare upset on the road. Purdue 68 – Iowa 64.

Purdue stays on the road and takes on a Northwestern team that is always tough to beat late in the season at Welsh-Ryan. The Wildcats haven’t pulled that big upset yet and won’t in this one either. Purdue is on a mission. Purdue 63 – Northwestern 55.

Illinois needs all the wins they can get and this one is a vital should win game. The trouble is, Penn State is bound to beat someone. They have too much talent not to. The lack of depth finally catches up to the Illini. Penn State 64 – Illinois 59.

This is a good chance for Michigan to get another much-needed win, but I don’t like how the Wolverines struggled at home against the Gophers a little more than a week ago. Still, Minnesota has been beaten and battered of late and will struggle to get over the hump. Michigan 73 – Minnesota 65.

A big battle in the Big Ten brings the ESPN Game Day crew to the Breslin Center for a late Saturday night clash between two teams hungry to get both feet firmly off the NCAA bubble. Indiana has struggled of late but handled Michigan State with ease in the opening week of conference play. Michigan State has found the energy and desire to go on a patented late February run. This is the home finale for a team devoid of seniors. The Izzone will be rocking and it will matter. Michigan State 69 – Indiana 62.

The Judgment Week game of all games in the NCAA. No. 1 vs. No. 2. The battle for the Big Ten title. Well, assuming my prediction above doesn’t come to fruition. Even if the Badgers come in a game back, this one is likely for all the marbles. Oden vs. Tucker. Conley vs. Taylor. Wisconsin got the Buckeyes early on at the Kohl and this time the scarlet and gray get the upper hand. Ohio State 74 – Wisconsin 72.

Get Gamm Standingsphatsdawg went a perfect 10-0 last week to get his first Get Gamm win of the basketball season. The standings are tight with many key toss-ups games on the slate this weekend.

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Get Gamm – Week SevenI’m not quite sure, aside from a handful of rivalry games, why ESPN chose last week as its rivalry week. Well, hold on a second, yes I am sure – their beloved Duke was playing host to North Carolina. I’ll give you that that game is the crème de la crème of college hoop rivalries, but to name a whole week, for that one game?

This week is much closer to Rivalry Week for the Big Ten. Michigan and Michigan State do battle. Indiana and Purdue go head to head. Wisconsin plays Minnesota and Northwestern takes on Illinois. The only rivalry game last week was Michigan at Ohio State and last I checked that’s only a real rivalry of note on the gridiron.

Enough about that, here’s the slate followed by what I think will go down this week. Note: I will be taking a posting hiatus until Tuesday the 20th so I have included next week’s schedule at the bottom in case you want to get your picks in early.

Michigan and Michigan State have a HUGE game in East Lansing Tuesday night. The Spartans have won 13 of the last 15 starting with a win at home in 1998. State needs to keep the dominance alive to start moving off the bubble and back into solid tournament standing. Michigan gained some confidence with a win over Minnesota, at home, but shouldn’t a tourney caliber team be pounding weaker foes at home? The Spartans had a week to rest up and will be firing on all cylinders. Michigan State wins by double digits yet again… Michigan State 68 – Michigan 58.

The week’s second rivalry tilt also has big time NCAA Tournament implications. Indiana is pretty safe at this point, barring a slide of epic proportions, but Purdue has work to do. A win in this one, given the remaining slate, would bode very well for the gold and black. The Boilers get some payback and stay right in the race for a tournament berth. Purdue 71 – Indiana 66.

Ohio State travels to Penn State to play one of the more underachieving teams in recent memory in the Big Ten. Penn State has some solid talent but plays no defense. They lack a real big man and that will spell doom against Oden and the Buckeyes. The only thing to watch is whether OSU can stay focused as a young team on a game they should win and not get caught looking ahead. Ohio State 77 – Penn State 68.

When the Badgers hit the road for The Barn in Minny, we’ll have our third rivalry game of the week. The difference between this and the predecessors is that those are great match-ups. Wisconsin should be able to put away a gritty and tough but very under-manned Gopher squad without much effort. Wisconsin 70 – Minnesota 56.

Northwestern is back to .500 overall and needs to make hay in its last six if it wants a shot at the back to 32-team (from 40) NIT. It won’t be easy with a trip to Iowa mid-week. The Hawkeyes have been a marvel this Big Ten season, finding ways to win just when you think there is no way they should. A surge at season’s end is also needed by Iowa to go to the postseason, but for the black and gold the goal is the Big Dance. Iowa 67 – Northwestern 55.

Nothing like playing the cream of the crop in the Big Ten this week. That’s Penn State’s task. OSU at home, followed by a trip to Madison. Ouch, not what this team and its fragile psyche needs right now. It could get ugly fast, despite the fact that the Nittany Lions hung tough with Wisconsin for most of the first match-up. Wisconsin 78 – Penn State 60.

Another home game, another HUGE game in Michigan State’s climb off the bubble. The Spartans must follow-up a win over Michigan with a win over Iowa – a team it could have beaten in the Big Ten opener despite being outplayed for most of that game. This time, the Spartans have Morgan and Joseph healthy and the Breslin Center crowd behind them. Payback for the green and white. Michigan State 70 – Iowa 64.

Indiana stays on the road and pays a visit to Michigan, a team the Hoosiers have owned for a while now, whether at home or in Crisler. If 10,000 Michigan fans dress up as empty seats again (like at the Minnesota game), there is no way the Wolverines parlay the home crowd into a much-needed win. I’m torn in this one, but the way Indiana handled Michigan in the first one and Michigan’s propensity to collapse late… Indiana 72 – Michigan 68.

Another potential trap game for the Buckeyes as they go to the other “far side” of Big Ten territory to take on the Golden Gophers. Say what you want about the 9-16 squad in maroon and gold, they play tough and scrappy and are bound to surprise someone down the stretch. With Tollickson back, Minnesota has a body to bang with Oden. The difference is that the Buckeyes bring a guy like Cook off the bench. Ohio State 67 – Minnesota 65.

The week ends with a rivalry game in the state of Illinois. Northwestern was right in the game with Illinois until the Illini exploded to an easy win in the second half of the first contest. The Illini rarely lose at home and know they need these to stay in the NCAA Tournament picture. Illinois 64 – Northwestern 49.

Monday, February 12, 2007

The Cream and The PackI’ve harped on it all season long, the fact that this was going to be, has been and will be a two horse race for the Big Ten title and a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. As each week goes by, that just keeps getting beyond crystal clear. Wisconsin and Ohio State will play for the Big Ten title in Columbus on Sunday, February 25.

In the meantime, where and how the pack is settling is quite entertaining. The Big Ten stands to get five teams in the dance, though maybe four or as many as six. Indiana is more or less a lock, so that means Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan and Iowa are fighting for those 1-3 berths. Michigan State and Michigan square off twice in the last three weeks. One of them will likely be eliminated due to their head-to-head match-ups. Iowa has ground to make up for a very lackluster OOC run. Illinois and Purdue stand to gain some ground with their schedules. No matter what, hang on; it’ll be a wild ride.

By the way, home teams went 7-3 last week and now stand 40-18 (.690) in conference play…

The contenders… as I touched on above and almost every week here, the Big Ten race will come down to Ohio State and Wisconsin. Each sits at 10-1 but Ohio State is firmly planted in the driver’s seat. Wisconsin still has Michigan State twice and a trip to Columbus in its last five. Ohio State entertains the Badgers at home and gets Penn State - twice.

The pack… Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan and Purdue are all duking it out to avoid the dreaded first day match-up in the Big Ten tourney. Indiana is likely a lock as the third best team in the conference. That means Illinois and Michigan (currently in the 4 & 5 slots) will be fighting to hold serve while Purdue and Michigan State try to move up the ranks. The good news is, whoever falls to 6 might have to play on day one, but will get Indiana and not Wisconsin or Ohio State on day two.

The cellar dwellers… Penn State is just a flat out disappointment to me. They have two of the top rebounders in the conference and some real scoring punch but they don’t play a lick of defense. I dare say that if the Nits defended anyone half as well as they rebound, they’d be in the mix above and fighting for an NCAA bid.

Team of the week… Purdue. The Boilermakers flat out annihilated Michigan State in the midweek game and then gave Ohio State all they could handle in Columbus.On the rise… Purdue. The win over MSU was a statement victory and the near upset of the Buckeyes was also big for confidence as we hit the back stretch.

In need of some “Ws”… Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue and Michigan. This is the core group fighting for as few as one and as many as three (very unlikely) bids to the NCAA Tournament. The time to make hay is NOW!

Player of the Week…Ohio State freshman point guard Mike Conley Jr. was the catalyst in two solid home wins for the scarlet and gray. The point guard went off for a career best 23 points and also tallied 6 assists against Michigan and followed that up with a 14 point, 4 assist night against Purdue. Speaking of Purdue, David Teague was a close runner up with an unconscious second half against Michigan State and a solid 17 points at OSU.

Friday, February 09, 2007

National Signing Day, The Big Ten and March Madness...First thing's first. For those looking for coverage of National Signing Day - forget about it. I am about as into college football recruiting as I am knitting. Talk to me in four years when we really can tell if these kids were worth all the hype.

In fact, Nick Saban said it best this week when he said, ""When you buy a puppy dog, you don't know if he's going to grow up to be the best hunting dog or not. That's like what recruiting is."

And that's all I have to say about that.

Well, except for, what the h-e-double hockey sticks is going on in Champaign?According to former MSU coach John L. Smith and now Notre Dame, something fishy.

March MadnessIt's a lot more fun and worthwhile to talk college basketball in February than college football. Besides, March Madness is much more objective. Some teams are "in". Many have no chance unless they pull off one of the annual miracles in their post-season conference tourney. Several are sitting right on the proverbial "bubble," including a handful of squads from the Big Ten.

Before I get to my current placement of Big Ten teams, let's take a look at where some of the nationally known bracket geeks have the conference slated:

ESPN.com'sJoe Lunardi has four Big Ten teams in his latest bracket. Wisconsin is a 1, Ohio State is a 2, Indiana is a 5 and Michigan State is one of his last four in, an 11.

CSTV'sJerry Palm hasn't updated since last Friday (2/2), but then had six Big Ten teams in the dance. Wisconsin is a 1, Ohio State is a 2, Indiana is a 6, Michigan State is a 9, Illinois is an 11 and Purdue is a 12.

ESPN.com'sAndy Glockner doesn't do a bracket, but has a great weekly take in his Bubble Watch column. His latest says many in the league still have work to do. He's right.

Better even than these weekly takes, however, was the experiment that 20 writers from the USBWA (U.S. Basketball Writers Association) got to take part in this week in Indianapolis. 20 writers paired up and each duo took on the role of one of the 10 members of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. It was their chance to get a look at what really goes on and to give the group a greater understanding of all the effort, pieces and parts that go on in five days in early March.

ESPN.com writers Andy Katz and Pat Forde got to participate and what they shared in their columns was fantastic insight for fans like you and me. Trust me, both are a MUST READ.

Now, what do I think? I know I have a new found respect for what happens in that conference room at the Westin. I think the Big Ten is looking at five, maybe six. Jerry Palm was maybe a little over generous in his Feb. 2 take. Lunardi maybe a little too stingy in his latest rendering.

First thing is first. Who's in? The Midwest's number 1 seed will go to the winner of the Ohio State - Wisconsin game later this month (of course assuming the teams take care of business prior to and after that - for the most part anyway). Given where that game is I have Ohio State as a 1 seed. Wisconsin will land a solid 2 but could still slide to a 3 if they drop two games and make an early exit in Chicago. Indiana should hold in the 6 or 7 range.

This is where it gets tricky. Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa are fighting for the other two berths. Sorry Michigan fans but who have the Wolverines beaten this season? MSU and Illinois have the benefit of a better OOC resume but Purdue could make a nice run. Iowa needs to go 10-6 and win a game in the B10 Tourney to get in, IMO. At this point, I think Illinois slides in as an 8 seed and Michigan State sneaks in ahead of Purdue and Iowa as an 11 seed.

This is what each team in contention still has left, how they stand, and what I predict:

Ohio State: Purdue, Penn State and Wisconsin at home; Penn State, Minnesota and Michigan on the road. Currently 9-1, I see 14-2, a No. 1 seed in the B10 Tourney and in the NCAA Tournament.

Wisconsin: Iowa, Penn State and Michigan State at home; Minnesota, Ohio State and Michigan State on the road. Currently 9-1, I see 13-3, a No. 2 seed in the B1o Tourney and in the NCAA Tournament.

Indiana: Illinois, Minnesota and Penn State at home; Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State and Northwestern on the road. Currently 6-3, I see 11-5, a No. 3 seed in the B10 Tourney and a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Illinois: Northwestern and Michigan at home; Indiana, Penn State and Iowa on the road. Currently 6-5, I see 9-7, a No. 4 seed in the B10 Tourney and an 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa: Purdue, Northwestern and Illinois at home; Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State on the road. Currently 6-4, I see 9-7, a No. 5 seed in the B10 Tourney but not enough out of conference "goodness" to get them into the dance. One of the last teams out, NIT bound.

Purdue: Indiana, Minnesota and Northwestern at home; Ohio State, Iowa and Northwestern on the road. Currently 5-5, I see 9-7, a No. 6 seed in the B10 Tourney and pins and needles on Selection Sunday. Win two in Chicago and I think they slide in. Win one, and the bubble might burst. NIT bound, but don't be shocked to see the Boilers win the NIT.

Michigan State: Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Indiana at home; Michigan and Wisconsin on the road. Currently 4-6, I see 8-8, a No. 7 seed in the B10 Tourney but a body of work in OOC play that included wins over several teams vying for their conference titles (BYU, Bradley, Texas, Oakland, Vermont, Loyola-Maryland). A "last team in", 11 seed in the NCAA Tourney for the Spartans.

Michigan: Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State and Ohio State at home; Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota on the road. Currently 4-5, I see 8-8, a No. 8 seed in the B10 Tourney and a return trip to the NIT.

The Big Ten could get four, or it could surprise and get as many as seven depending on how the conference tournament play out and how the last few weeks go in conference play. Sit down, buckle up and prepare yourself for a wild ride to the finish!

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Get Gamm - Week Six...Some key battles ensue this week as the march to madness starts to build to a fever pitch. With two teams (Wisconsin and Ohio State) as locks, and as many as six others (Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan and Purdue) battling for what looks like maybe two to three more slots, every game counts. Home teams slipped a bit last week and now stand 33-15. A glance at the slate for week six shows that the home teams will likely return to dominance.

Ohio State staved off a valiant comeback by Michigan State twice in a week and is in the driver's seat in the Big Ten race. Michigan had a week to prepare but is entering their usual February swoon. Ohio State rolls - OSU 78 - Michigan 61.

Illinois has perhaps the easiest remaining schedule and it starts at Northwestern. The caution is that this is when the Wildcats pull off an improbable home upset over a team with March aspirations. Northwestern shocks the Illini - NU 58 - Illinois 56.

Michigan State is in its first three game losing streak since the 2003 season. Things don't get any easier when the Spartans hit the road for Purdue. The Boilers are a far better team at Mackey than away and that gives them a big edge in this game. The pressure turns up some more on the Spartans. Purdue 63 - Michigan State 60.

Iowa is on a roll right now but needs to be careful with this trip to rival Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have looked awful and decent all in the same game quite often this season. Iowa guts out a road win and starts making a good case for their NCAA life. Iowa 67 - Minnesota 58.

Wisconsin has one of its last breathers of the season, even though it entails a road trip to central Pennsylvania. Penn State is too talented to be 1-7 in the conference but doesn't play enough defense. Wisconsin does. Wisconsin 70 - Penn State 60.

Purdue goes to Ohio State for a rematch of last week's 18-point loss. The gold and black could catch the young Buckeyes dreaming if Big Ten titles, but that's unlikely. OSU 74 - Purdue 67.

Illinois travels to Indiana in what has suddenly become a bitter rivalry. To say the relationship between Sampson and Weber is icy is an understatement. Illinois stifled the Hoosiers in the first one, but IU is a tough out at home. Indiana 64 - Illinois 57.

Another road trip for Iowa but not as easy as the trek to Minnesota. The Hawkeyes were burned by Alando Tucker in the first meeting and this time it's in Madison. UW 72 - Iowa 59.

Penn State and Northwestern battle to avoid the 11 seed in the Big Ten tourney. A win in this game is also huge if either team wants to play in the NIT. Northwestern rides the momentum of the Illinois upset to a nice win. NU 63 - PSU 58.

This might be Michigan's best chance to secure a win as they come through a stretch that includes two games with Ohio State and Michigan State as well as a battle with Indiana and a trip to Illinois. Michigan 73 - Minnesota 56.

Monday, February 05, 2007

Not so sweet home after allFor the first time this season, playing at home didn’t mean semi-automatic victories. Sure, the usual suspects are caught up in the 5-5 home record for the week (i.e. Penn State and Northwestern losing at home) but Purdue and Michigan State also lost at home and had been previously unscathed, and Michigan blew a 14-point lead in a home loss to Iowa. That leaves home teams 33-15 (.688) heading into the stretch run and oh by the way, the league is breaking into three distinct parts – contenders, position seekers and cellar dwellers.

The contenders… as has been the thought all along, the Big Ten race will come down to Ohio State and Wisconsin. Each sits at 8-1 but you have to say that Ohio State is firmly planted in the driver’s seat. Why? Simple – the remaining schedule. Wisconsin has Michigan State twice and a trip to Columbus in its last seven and also have the surging Hawkeyes at home. Ohio State entertains the meat of its left-over games at home and gets Penn State twice.

The position seekers… Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan and Purdue are all duking it out to avoid the dreaded first day match-up in the Big Ten tourney. Indiana is pretty comfy at 6-3 and has a relatively easy go over its last seven (road trips to Purdue and MSU are the toughest remaining contests). Illinois is surging and has arguably the easiest road left. Iowa is also getting hot at the right time but still has to go to Wisconsin and Michigan State in addition to hosting Illinois and Purdue. Michigan is in danger of falling into the cellar with half of its remaining games against Ohio State and Michigan State, a trip to Illinois and a home game with Indiana. Purdue could make some hay but the schedule doesn’t get any easier for them at all.

The cellar dwellers… Minnesota is fighting hard despite being outmanned and may pull off a key upset down the stretch. Northwestern is always known to stymie a key player in the race late in the season and is battling to stay above .500 to get to the NIT. Penn State has a starting five that many coaches in the Big Ten would love to have but doesn’t know how to win. Still, they are also good for an upset yet and have postseason play in sight.

Team of the week…Ohio State. The Buckeyes went on the road to beat up on Purdue and grind out a second win over Michigan State in seven days. The scarlet and gray have pushed Wisconsin to the middle of the front seat and control their Big Ten title destiny.

On the rise…Iowa. Down 14 on the road to Michigan, Iowa was looking like an NIT – at best – team this season. Then the defense stiffened, Adam Haluska got hot (again) and Iowa churned out a seven point win. The black and gold followed that up with a sweet little home win over Indiana and now sit in fourth place with the NCAA Tournament within reach.

In need of some “Ws”…Michigan State. The Spartans were oh so close at Ohio State and turned that moral victory into two more tough losses. First there was the ugly grinder at Illinois and then an equally un-pretty fist fight with OSU. Michigan State needs wins to get to a tenth straight Big Dance, and they won’t come easy…

Player of the Week…It’s a no-brainer this week. Adam Haluska was as hot from the floor as his fiancé (gives all average looking guys in the world a glimmer of hope!). For the week he averaged 25 points and 7.5 boards, including a 33-point effort in the win over Indiana.

Get Gamm Basketball StandingsNo one over 6-4 for the week. We all were taken out by reliance on the home teams. Buckeye Nation did get the tiebreaker, however, as the only one to pick the Buckeyes over Michigan State in the rematch.

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