General Election 2010: Tories rule out Lib Dem alliance

David Cameron is prepared to rule out any coalition deal with the Liberal
Democrats and will try to lead a minority government if the Tories narrowly
fail to win an outright majority in the General Election on Thursday.

By Andrew Porter and Robert Winnett

11:14PM BST 02 May 2010

The Conservative leader is increasingly confident of winning an overall majority.

Mr Cameron believes the momentum is with his party after his confident performance in last week’s final leaders’ debate, Gordon Brown’s “bigoted woman” gaffe and a series of polls showing a fall in Lib Dem support.

Even if he fails to secure an outright majority, it is understood Mr Cameron is preparing to “go it alone” and form a minority government. The Tories are confident an informal understanding with unionist MPs from Ulster could secure Mr Cameron a safe passage with his key early Commons battles, including getting a first Queen’s Speech and Budget passed. Last night, the Conservative leader said that, with three days before polling day, the momentum was now with him.

He will launch one final push for support over the next 72 hours including an all-night stint of campaigning targeting night-shift workers and late-night radio listeners.

He will reach out to voters in Northern Ireland amid signs that the unionist parties may hold the key to the Tories forming a government.

Mr Cameron is also relying on the reluctance of the Lib Dems or Labour to risk unpopularity with the electorate by bringing down a minority Tory government at a time of economic uncertainty. Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader, indicated yesterday that his party would be unlikely to force another election.

Senior Whitehall sources have indicated they expect Mr Cameron to push ahead without a formal coalition if he falls short of a majority.

A shadow Cabinet minister said: “We don’t need a formal coalition deal if the unionists are on board for the key pieces of legislation.”

The Daily Telegraph was given exclusive access to Mr Cameron on the campaign trail yesterday as he visited Cornwall and North Wales.

The Conservative leader is optimistic he can secure victory after weeks of disappointing polls. “I think we have the momentum coming out of the [television] debates,” he said. “The big question people need to ask is how do I get change at this election? It is by voting Conservative on Thursday and getting a clean break from the past and a new government.”

For the first time, he spoke in detail of his plans for government and his hope he would be able to announce a Cabinet within hours of the election result becoming clear. He said he would have his Cabinet and senior government positions in place “quickly” if he wins on Thursday. He plans to travel back to London from his Witney constituency count in the early hours of Friday morning.

Mr Cameron is believed to have issued his likely Cabinet ministers with “three priorities” for their departments.

Mr Cameron said: “I’m fighting with everything I’ve got in the next four days to try and win what I think will be good for Britain, which is a decisive majority government that can take the whole country with it, but get things done starting on Friday.”

He added: “I think the debates have been a big challenge, they’ve thrown the election wide open, they’ve presented big challenges for all the campaigns – perhaps mine especially,” he said. “But I think we’ve come through that very strongly, I think we’re winning the argument on the economy and I think we’ve got some momentum now to go into these last few days.”

He rejected an analysis by the Institute of Fiscal Studies that a Conservative government would have to find a further £52 billion in spending cuts, but acknowledged they would have to go further than they had said so far. “There are undoubtedly going to be some very difficult and tough decisions,” he said. “It is incredibly challenging, it hasn’t been done in recent times, I completely accept that.”

Yesterday, polls showed Liberal Democrat support had fallen significantly over the past week – with the party falling back into third place – while the Conservatives have a clear lead over Labour.

The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph showed Nick Clegg’s party dropping four points since a similar survey last week to slump into third place behind Labour, with the Tories on 36 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent and the Lib Dems on 27 per cent. If repeated at the election on an even swing across the country, the figures would leave David Cameron at the head of the largest party in the House of Commons with 279 MPs – 47 short of an outright majority.

Meanwhile, a ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday gave the Conservatives a 10-point lead – their largest advantage in a poll by the company since February. It put the Tories on 38 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 25 per cent.

According to the bookmakers, the Conservatives are now favourites to win Thursday’s general election with an outright majority. Bookmaker Coral changed its odds on a Tory victory, which stood at 5-4 on Saturday, to become 8-11 favourite after “immense and unprecedented” levels of gambling on the outcome of the poll.

Meanwhile, a minority Conservative government could face a “constitutional crisis” over England’s relationship with the other UK nations, a think-tank warns today.

The Institute for Public Policy Research suggests that a minority Conservative government would have a majority of votes cast in England but not in Scotland or Wales. Such a government would be liable to a Commons defeat on English issues partly on the basis of votes cast by Scots and Welsh MPs, the IPPR predicted.