Gregor Robertson on track for victory in Vancouver election

Vancouver mayoral candidates, from left, Kirk LaPointe, Gregor Robertson and Meena Wong, take part in a panel discussion at the Italian Cultural Centre in Vancouver on Oct. 9.Photo by
RICHARD LAM

Despite a weak record on housing affordability and allegations of improper campaigning techniques, Vision Vancouver and Mayor Gregor Robertson are set to remain in power, according to two recent polls.

For a variety of reasons, as the Nov. 15 civic election rapidly approaches, pollsters say it looks as if the party will retain control of city hall.

In different surveys, pollsters Barb Justason and Mario Canseco have found that housing affordability is by far the most important issue for Vancouver voters. Surveys also indicated some desire for political change in Vancouver, both pollsters said, but no real trending of voters towards an alternative to Vision.

A wild card in the current campaign is the revival of COPE, with mayoral candidate Meena Wong running an energetic, populist campaign focused on regulating Vancouver’s skyrocketing real estate market.

In Justason’s recent survey, Wong got 16-per-cent support, compared to 46 per cent for Robertson, and 32 per cent for the NPA mayoral candidate Kirk LaPointe.

Notably, Green Coun. Adriane Carr led all other council candidates by a wide margin. The Greens seem to have chosen wisely in not running for mayor, allowing Carr to surge forward without facing Robertson’s formidable support, pollsters say.

Justason said she believes election turnout will rise above the dismal 34 per cent seen in Vancouver in 2011 for a variety of reasons, including interest in housing affordability.

Another factor, she said, is that people are realiziang that municipal politics actually matter, in the context of Toronto’s suffering through former mayor Rob Ford’s leadership and addiction issues.

It would be worrisome for Vision if Wong snatched a large chunk of voters from Robertson, who captured about 54 per cent of the vote in the 2011 and 2008 elections. But Justason isn’t sure that is happening.

“My biggest surprise,” Justason said in an interview, “is that we haven’t seen the Vision vote decline at all. But instead I think we are seeing an activation of a voter base.”

Wong has captured the attention of voters on housing and likely brought back leftist voters who dropped out of the political process after Vision split with the party a decade ago, Justason believes.

But COPE’S affordability schemes on transit and housing, including taxing empty condos, could seem unfeasible to voters that have supported Robertson.

“I think people see COPE as a non-starter at this point,” Justason said. “I don’t think they are expecting Meena Wong to surprise us on election day.”

COPE campaign insiders, as might be expected, are much more optimistic about Wong’s chances. They believe that even with an underfunded and understaffed campaign, COPE is motivating renters and bus riders on Vancouver’s east side, which Vision has owned in recent elections.

By targeting renters with doorknocking, Wong’s team is using the strategy that helped NDP MLA David Eby steal tony Vancouver Point Grey from Premier Christy Clark in the last provincial election.

COPE’s young strategists believe they own the housing issue in this campaign.

“Some of the voters that would go to Gregor may be moving to Meena Wong,” pollster Canseco said in an interview, adding that Vision and Robertson overpromised on housing affordability and homelessness, which is why they are vulnerable.

Canseco sees a potential weakness in Vision’s aging base of younger voters who were initially attracted to Robertson’s green image, but who now are looking for homes, and realizing they will never own property under the status quo in Vancouver.

On homelessness and poverty, 62 per cent of people polled by Canseco say Vision’s record is bad, or very bad.

Justason said that even though Vision looks weak on housing and homelessness, they still control the issues, considering the alternatives available to voters.

If LaPointe could credibly offer a housing affordability plan he could hurt Robertson, Justason said, but that doesn’t seem likely, given the party’s backers and traditional base of homeowners who would be worried about falling property values.

“Kirk LaPointe has said we need a genuine conversation (about housing), but he didn’t have anything to say,” she said.

On his favoured issue of transparency, though, last week LaPointe appeared to put a dent in Robertson’s armour with a suggestion of improper campaigning, Justason said.

After the Vancouver Courier reported that Vision made an agreement with CUPE Local 1004 that was followed by a $102,000 campaign contribution, LaPointe pressed Robertson at a debate, asking if the mayor was “proud” of the deal, which was revealed in a recording of Vision Coun. Geoff Meggs.

Robertson replied that Meggs was “not my councillor.”

LaPointe, in a subsequent televised debate, attacked Robertson again, saying the Meggs deal was “intended to buy votes. It certainly resulted in $102,000 in donations from the union and I think the city deserves an answer.”

Robertson maintained Vision’s deal was not inappropriate. The issue has been Robertson’s weakest moment in the campaign and LaPointe’s best, but is still “not a knockout punch,” Justason said.

Justason said she believes the NPA was gaining traction in the final days of the 2011 election campaign, but the party seems not to have picked up on that momentum in the current race.

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