Under what circumstances would an EMP attack on the United States be likely to occur? The possible scenarios range from one involving a rogue state's desire to demonstrate its potential ability to strike U.S. territory with a nuclear bomb to one in which such a state wants to give itself an advantage in a regional conflict by crippling U.S. military and allied forces, which are more dependent on advanced electronics and therefore more susceptible to an EMP attack.

SCENARIO: IRAQ COULD USE AN EMP ATTACK ON THE USA AND GET AWAY WITH IT

Jack Spencer, Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in The Heritage Foundation. May 26, 2000 No. 1372 AMERICA'S VULNERABILITY TO A DIFFERENT NUCLEAR THREAT: AN ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE

Scenario #1: A rogue-state leader decides to launch an EMP attack on the United States to improve the odds of winning a regional conflict. After obtaining an ICBM equipped with a nuclear warhead, Saddam Hussein decides to invade Kuwait again.

6 The United States is called upon to liberate its ally. A few weeks into the war, Saddam launches a ballistic missile armed with a nuclear warhead toward the United States. It is detonated 50 miles above a section of the American West. Although no people are harmed, there is a regional blackout. Saddam Hussein gloats, having leveled the playing field and weakened U.S. resolve by demonstrating his ability to deliver a nuclear weapon to U.S. soil. The President refuses to launch a counter nuclear attack out of fear that it would kill millions of innocent people.

SCENARIO: NORTH KOREAN EMP ATTACK DESTROYS USA DEFENSE OF SOUTH KOREA

Jack Spencer, Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in The Heritage Foundation. May 26, 2000 No. 1372 AMERICA'S VULNERABILITY TO A DIFFERENT NUCLEAR THREAT: AN ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE

Scenario #2: An enemy explodes a nuclear device over a theater of combat or an area containing allied assets to cripple the United States. North Korea has decided to take South Korea but faces 37,000 U.S. troops stationed there. It explodes a nuclear device over the extreme southern part of the Korean peninsula. The EMP effect covers all of Korea, with the strongest effects occurring below the demilitarized zone. North Korea's military is harmed, but the damage is far less severe than that experienced by U.S. and South Korean forces since they rely on modern electronics to a much greater extent. Because the U.S. and allied forces are unable to utilize their advanced radar, communications, and networked systems, they suffer a major decline in warfighting capabilities. Electronic systems on a carrier battlegroup on its way to the Korean theater are damaged as well. As a result, the United States is seriously constrained in responding to a North Korea attack across the demilitarized zone.

SCENARIO: UNIDENTIFIED EMP TERRORIST ATTACKS ON MAJOR USA CITIES

Jack Spencer, Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in The Heritage Foundation. May 26, 2000 No. 1372 AMERICA'S VULNERABILITY TO A DIFFERENT NUCLEAR THREAT: AN ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE

Scenario #3: A surprise terrorist attack is launched against the United States, but the aggressor cannot be identified. An unknown aggressor launches a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead from a ship located at sea 150 miles east of New York City. The device explodes 80 miles above New York, spreading its effect over most of New York and Pennsylvania. Wall Street shuts down, massive traffic tie-ups occur throughout the metropolitan region, and air traffic control systems are severely degraded. The crew of the ship immediately abandons the vessel and sinks it, and no one admits responsibility. Analysis leads the U.S. government to believe that the missile was probably a Scud variant, but because the United States cannot identify who launched it, there is no basis for retaliation.

SCENARIO: CHINA USES AN EMP ATTACK TO CONQUER TAIWAN

Jack Spencer, Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in The Heritage Foundation. May 26, 2000 No. 1372 AMERICA'S VULNERABILITY TO A DIFFERENT NUCLEAR THREAT: AN ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE

Scenario #4: An enemy uses an EMP blast as part of its war strategy against a U.S. ally. Suppose China commences another military exercise in the Taiwan Strait. As part of the exercise, it launches a ballistic missile in a trajectory over Taiwan. When the missile reaches 300 miles southeast of Taiwan, its nuclear warhead is detonated, releasing an EMP that affects the entire island. The ensuing blackout incites mass confusion and seriously degrades the warfighting ability of the Taiwanese military. Taiwan is unable to defend itself and is forced either to sue for peace with the mainland or to call in the United States to defend it from attack.

SCENARIO: IRANIAN EMP ATTACK ON THE USA AVOIDS USA RETALIATION

Jack Spencer, Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in The Heritage Foundation. May 26, 2000 No. 1372 AMERICA'S VULNERABILITY TO A DIFFERENT NUCLEAR THREAT: AN ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE

Scenario #5: A rogue leader wants to attack the United States but evade retaliation. Iran, which the 1998 Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States (the Rumsfeld Commission) reported "has the technical capability and resources to demonstrate an ICBM-range ballistic missile...within five years of the decision to deploy," decides to take hostile action against the United States after developing an ICBM.

7 It knows that a direct nuclear attack on the United States would result in the destruction of Tehran. 8 It launches two missiles with nuclear warheads that detonate 250 miles above Illinois and Wyoming. The United States does not retaliate because no one is immediately killed. Not knowing whether Iran has other nuclear warheads, the United States decides to limit its response against Iran rather than risk a direct nuclear attack on a U.S. city.