Friday could be a key date in Proposition 8 fight

U.S. Supreme Court is expected to decide soon whether it will review a challenge to Prop. 8, the 2008 state ballot measure that established marriage as between a man and a woman and stripped gays and lesbians of the right to wed in California.

What could the court do?

When the U.S. Supreme Court meets Friday, it could decide to accept the Proposition 8 case, deny it or defer making a decision. Here’s what would happen under each scenario.

Accept: Oral arguments will be heard in March or April. A decision by the court would be expected in June.

Deny: The ruling by the Ninth Circuit, overturning Prop. 8, would stand. Gay marriage would be legal in California, but there’s some debate about how widely the ruling could be applied and when the new policy would go into effect.

Defer: It’s unclear when, exactly, the court would make a decision on the case.

The court is expected to announce its decision Friday or Monday.

Source: Register reporting

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Same-sex marriage could be legal in California by the end of Friday.

Or the legal wrangling over Proposition 8 could continue for several more months — or even longer.

Either way, there's a sense on both sides of the issue that tomorrow will be a key date in the state's longstanding debate over gay marriage.

Behind closed doors Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to decide whether it will review a challenge to Prop. 8, the 2008 state ballot measure that established marriage as between a man and a woman and stripped gays and lesbians of the right to wed in California.

In February, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals struck down the initiative. If the Supreme Court decides it doesn't want to review the case — such an announcement could come as early as Friday afternoon — the 9th Circuit's ruling will stand.

Officials in San Francisco are bracing for an onslaught of wedding requests, although there's some disagreement about whether a denial by the Supreme Court will immediately make same-sex marriage legal across the state, or whether further litigation will be required.

Then again, the court could decide that it wants to hear the case — and advocates on both sides of the issue believe it will. In that case, a decision won't be made until probably June.

There's also the possibility the court could put off making a decision. Then who knows when we'll have an answer.

"It's always a guess what the Supreme Court will do," says Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the UC Irvine School of Law.

Speculation about the justices' decision went into overdrive this month after voters in Maine, Maryland and Washington approved ballot measures legalizing same-sex marriage and voters in Minnesota rejected a measure to ban it. Would the election results sway the justices? If so, how?

"In light of the four victories, they'll feel a lot of pressure from within to hold up the marriages," predicts Fred Karger of Laguna Beach, an openly gay Republican who worked as a senior aide on the presidential campaigns of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Gerald Ford and who now runs Rights Equal Rights, an organization dedicated to exposing major donors who supported Prop. 8.

"A very exciting time," he said.

However, while Karger said he'd love for the Supreme Court to deny review of the Prop. 8 and let the 9th Circuit's ruling stand, he expects the justices will want to hear the case.

"It's just too big of a case," he said.

But even under a review, Karger said he's confident the justices will rule in favor of same-sex marriage.

Related Links

U.S. Supreme Court is expected to decide soon whether it will review a challenge to Prop. 8, the 2008 state ballot measure that established marriage as between a man and a woman and stripped gays and lesbians of the right to wed in California.
Fred Karger, a Laguna Beach gay-rights activist and a Republican, worked as a senior aide on the presidential campaigns of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Gerald Ford and now runs Rights Equal Rights, an organization dedicated to exposing major donors who supported Prop. 8.
John Eastman, former dean of the Kennedy School of Law at Chapman University and a 2010 Republican candidate for attorney general, was involved in a "friend of the court" brief in defense of Prop. 8.

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