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NBA Picks

Pick Spurs –1.5 vs. Clippers

Just when you thought the San Antonio Spurs
were out of the basketball betting mix, they pull you back in. But the Clippers
are also getting paid handsomely as these two teams prepare to meet Monday
night.

Ah, those crazy San Antonio Spurs. It’s
been two weeks since I wrote
them off as no longer worth my time against the NBA betting lines, and
while that assessment looked prescient at first, the Spurs have won their last
four games in a row at 3-1 ATS. That includes Saturday
night’s game against the Utah Jazz, where back-up big man Aron Baynes
actually did play, and played well as San Antonio (–7 away) prevailed 100-84.

Hey, I didn’t say the Spurs (19-4 SU, 12-11
ATS) were an awful team. I’m just saying I expect them to continue to hover
around .500 against the basketball spreads, as they’ve done for the past 100
games or so. They’ll be in tough this Monday night against the Los Angeles
Clippers (16-9 SU, 14-11 ATS), who have also covered three of their last four
games, and are looking forward to seeing Staples Center for the first time in
over two weeks. Our early NBA lines have the Clippers getting 1.5 points.

Baynes (8.7 PER) is hardly the most
important person in the Spurs lineup, but he’s a perfect example of why you
should always pay close attention to the injury reports as tip-off approaches,
and hold off on your NBA bets unless there’s a good reason to make your play
early. Baynes and center Tiago Splitter (18.9 PER) were both listed as
day-to-day going into Saturday’s matchup; Splitter sat out another one, but
Baynes returned and played 17 quality minutes off the bench, scoring nine
points with eight rebounds and two assists.

The latest word on Splitter at press time is
that he’s “hoping” to play Monday against the Clippers. San Antonio’s four-game
winning streak coincides with Splitter’s absence, but correlation doesn’t
necessarily equal causation. Splitter is an important player for the Spurs,
putting up 14.6 points and 11.4 rebounds (including 4.0 offensive boards) every
36 minutes. His plus-4.5 Simple Rating at 82games is even better than teammate
Tim Duncan’s plus-4.3.

Left
Eye Barnes

Aside from general wear and tear, San
Antonio is completely healthy once Splitter returns. The same can’t be said for
the Clippers, who remain rather thin on the wings without J.J. Redick
(hand/elbow), Matt Barnes (eye), and Reggie Bullock (ankle). You can add Willie
Green to that list, too. Green (3.7 PER) bruised his left pinky finger in
Saturday’s 113-97 victory over the Washington Wizards and didn’t return to the
game. Results on his X-rays were pending at press time.

Los Angeles cashed in anyway as a 4.5-point
chalk at the end of a seven-game road swing through the Eastern Conference. SG
Jamal Crawford (16.2 PER) got the start against Washington and scored 17
points, but without the former NBA Sixth Man of the Year, the Clippers bench
was a liability. SF Steven Jackson was the only “plus” player at plus-one, and
that was in eight dubious minutes with one point, three rebounds and a pair of
turnovers.

I’m not sold on the Spurs in the long term,
but I’m not too proud to pick them in this situation. Check out those home/away
splits: San Antonio is 8-4 ATS on the road this year, while Los Angeles is 5-5
ATS at Staples Center. The Spurs are also 2-1 SU and ATS in their three road
games against L.A. since Chris Paul’s arrival. Both teams should be fresh after
taking Saturday off, so San Antonio’s old legs should have the advantage, for
one more day at least.