Panic At the Elysée

Hustling 'non' at the marché.

The Big NON

Paris:– Monday, 30. May 2005:– By now
the result of France's vote for or against accepting the
European Constitution has been broadcast around the world,
allowing France to yet again astonish its enemies and
confound its friends. However the surprise was felt within
France too, and on the winning side there was thin joy as
well.

Since the socialists and other assorted lefties helped
re–elect Jacques Chirac as Président of France
in the spring of 2002, voters have returned several times
to the polls to vote against the right–wing majority
and the president. With each slap in the face the country's
political leader has said he's heard the 'message,' but
kept up with the same old program.

The 'same old program' isn't Europe or its constitution.
It's just a vote that came along and got in the way of a
freight train of dissatisfaction. 'La
France–d'en–bas' – the little folks
– is fed up with having its 'messages' ignored, so it
has just gone out and pulled the fire alarm.

What a mess! There isn't a politician in France today
that can take any satisfaction from this. When an
earthquake happens everybody gets stuck in the wreckage. In
this case it looks like the French have set a tidal wave in
motion and it does not look like there are any
well–equipped rescue workers around.

Paris
Votes OUI

If you don't speed–listen to the weather forecasts
on the radio you might swear that Paris has no weather at
all, and a lot of weather happens in far–off Brittany
and around Marseille. In the same vein all of France voted
'non' yesterday just about everywhere, and it is today's
paper that finally tells me that Paris voted 'oui.'

With a turnout five points higher than the national
average, Parisians voted 66.5 percent 'oui' and 33.5
percent 'non.' The two arrondissements with the poorest
showing both had 53 percent in favor of the constitution.
Four arrondissements had favorable votes close to 80
percent. Other than dissident socialists in the 'non' camp,
Paris' mayor Bertrand Delanoë turned out to be the
only socialist leader that delivered the 'oui'
goods.

The Big NON

Sunday – After one of the
hardest–fought campaigns anyone can remember in
France, polling for acceptance or rejection of the European
Constitution ended tonight at 20:00 throughout France and
at 22:00 in Paris and Lyon. Voter turnout was high and the
suspense stretched its tendons to the limit, to the
end.

With the closing of the polls, the 'winner'
has turned out to be the partisans of the NON vote,
rejecting the European Constitution which would have formed
the basis of law for 450 million Europeans, from the Arctic
to the Mediterranean, from the Atlantic to Russia.

Initial estimates have posted the results as 55
percent for the 'non' and 45 percent for the
'oui.' This is decisive, coupled with a national turnout
estimated to be near 70 percent of registered voters, both
in France and in its overseas territories.

This is a bitter blow to all centrist leaders from right
to left and is an electroshock for France's
Président, Jacques Chirac, who called for the vote
in the first place. Tonight's vote comes as yet another in
a string of electoral rejections of his presidency.

Aside from Spain which has already voted to accept the
Constitution, there are eight other countries that have
planned referendums. Holland, which has had a problem
getting anyone interested in the campaign which winds up at
the ballot boxes on Wednesday, will not be reassured by
tonight's result in France.

Meanwhile there is gloom in the various headquarters of
the mainstream parties here, while victory fêtes by
opponents were already under way before the polls closed,
with the Communists singing the 'Internationale.' A
reporter stationed at the 'non' headquarters of the
dissident Socialists said they were ready to 'faire la
fête toute la nuit.'

Jacques Chirac, speaking from the Elysée Palace
30 minutes after polls closed said, "It's your decision,"
and went on to say that France will continue to respect its
obligations vis–a–vis Europe. But in conclusion
he added that the French can expect a 'nouvelle impulsion'
from the government within a few days.

Leader of the president's party, the UMP, Nicolas
Sarkozy, on television immediately afterwards, gave what
would have sounded like a campaign speech, for president of
France, as if 2007 isn't far off. Nicolas should think
twice before setting out to run for so long.

Urge To
Be

Friday – There are problems with the
European Constitution but they apply to all constitutions.
In Europe's new one there are articles of a few simple
words that should be easy to understand. For example,
Article II-62.2 in the Fundamental Rights section says,
"Nobody can be condemned to death or executed."

If ratified, this will apply to 450 million people
living in the 25 member states of the European Union. I
expect that clever legal minds will find ways to interpret
the eight simple words above and convince a judge somewhere
that the opposite is really meant, but until then I would
vote for a constitution that bars the death penalty and
hope for the best.

The most impassioned champions of the Constitution will
freely admit that some of it is not perfect.
Articles that may seem a bit
vague are backed up with 'Declarations' that spell out the
meaning more exactly, and past European Court decisions are
added if they aid clarity.

The Constitution guarantees freedom of speech in Article
II-71.1. It says, "Everyone has the right to free
expression, including the exchange of opinions, without
interference by the authorities and without consideration
of frontiers." This is a long one and the subject is
complicated so we can expect that this will see its day in
courts to come.

The debate around the Constitution has been somewhat
obscure because very few people have read it. The
opposition has used this ignorance shamelessly by citing
dubious practices that are happening today, saying they
will be totally uncontrolled in the future.

In other words, if the Constitution consists of apples,
they are saying it lacks oranges. Or they are saying that
because it is so economically 'liberal,' we will all have
to go to Poland to work for the wages there. Or just as
bad, Poles will invade France and work for Polish wages
here. Some very smart people will insist that the
Constitution guarantees this.

The Constitution offers the very protections that the
opposition says it lacks. Behavior that can't be governed
by a Constitution is a used as an example for why the
Constitution is bad. You are not going to get to bed this
week if you want to argue about it. The arguments against
the Constitution are complicated while its Articles are
simple.

The official campaign to educate the voters has been a
colossal flop. The opposition has used this fact for its
advantage. They can say anything and this is what they have
been doing.

For example, they say the 'liberal' aspects of the
Constitution will cause massive unemployment. It is hard to
understand how it could be made worse that it already is,
under the 'old' rules. Voting against the Constitution is
like voting for continued unemployment, rather than for the
future.

The French government's 'reform' plans, delocalizations,
unemployment, low wages, globalization, are all problems of
right now, of the present right-wing 'liberal' government.
Many voters have been conned into
believing that their present problems will worsen if the
Constitution is ratified.

Voters tend to recall the past somewhat more easily than
the future so even if the Constitution is about Europe,
they are probably going to vote against the government.

Well, life is a gamble. The French can vote to maintain
their miserable present and what they know, or they can
cast a ballot for the unknown future.

Polling station
in Paris.

As far as Europe is concerned, it has always been a
risky business. This European Union thing stumbles along
from crises to crises, from boiling pot to frying pan, but
it has always managed to step back from brinks in the nick
of time. Against all odds, formidable odds, impossible
odds, the European Union exists. It has an urge to
be.

Nicolas Sarkozy Suffers

Saturday – As a rule the press in France
doesn't waste a lot of newsprint on the private affairs of
politicians unless they intrude into the public sphere,
usually in the form of messing with money in a careless
way. While the habitués of social and political
Parisian salons routinely trade rumor, innuendo, true lies
and scandal, they don't share it with the hoi polli.

This is not to say that there are no 'people' magazines.
These exist but are mainly at the service of the
entertainment business, serving up PR tidbits for folks
waiting to get their teeth pulled or their prescriptions
renewed.

Until recently France's hottest Monsieur Go–Go,
Nicolas Sarkozy, and his wife, Cécilia, were a
frequent item on the 'people' circuit. He, Nicolas, had
moved up from being mayor of the swank Paris suburb of
Neuilly to being minister of the interior – the
country's head cop – then moved over to the finance
hot seat at Bercy, and from there he switched to being the
president of the major right–wing party, the UMP.

All of this is part of a plan that will see Nicolas
elected as president of France in 2007, and wife
Cécilia was marching along hand–in–hand,
perfectly matching her husband's short strides.
Cécilia kept Nicolas' appointment book up to date as
well as keeping the appointments with him.

The President of France, Jacques Chirac, decided to do a
good thing for the French by getting them vote 'oui' for
the new European Constitution. Quite naturally, to aid this
mission, he called on the services of Nicolas - as head of
the UMP party, Jacques' party in fact – to campaign
for a 'oui' vote, which he has been doing.

Some doubt Nicolas' sincerity, some doubt that Nicolas
is focused on anything other than the office of president,
and some think he has tunnel vision, but he was out there
campaigning like a real trooper. Until last Sunday that is,
when he failed to turn up on the evening news program at
the commercial station, TF–1. That set those salons
buzzing!

Nicolas skipped a chance to be on the news? Every shot
at the news is a step on the way to the Elysée
Palace. A spokesman said the UMP president was tired.
Tired? Monsieur 24/24, 7/7, Nicolas Sarkozy is tired?
Incomprehension.

Then on Thursday evening the number one presidential
pretender turned up in the news studio of France–3.
Expecting him to launch into a plea for a 'oui' vote on
Sunday, viewers were probably somewhat baffled when Sarkozy
opened with, "Go on – do your nice job."

With an air of resignation he continued, mentioning "the
craziest rumors." He added that there are, "Family
difficulties," but, "There is no affair."

While the audience was wondering what this might be
about, Sarkozy continued, hinting at a world of
unscrupulous blows, demanding respect for himself and his
family, saying he would protect them.

After using the word 'respect' several times he returned
to his preoccupation, his determination, "Nothing will
divert me from my chosen route," probably meaning his
intention to become president of France. "I stay serene and
I stay calm. I believe in my ideas."

With this, Sarkozy shrugged off his air of depression
and launched into a typically passionate but routine pitch
for a 'oui' vote for the European Constitution.

If nothing else Nicolas Sarkozy is popular with a solid
majority of UMP party members, who are ready to vote 'oui'
at the polls on Sunday. All the same he probably expects
all the possibilities, including a small to big victory for
the 'non.' Since he himself has campaigned with energy, any
defeat will be solely the responsibility of Jacques Chirac.
The theory is, a 'non' will prevent Chirac from running for
president again.

Either way, Sarkozy will have 22 months to convince the
UMP and the French that he should become president in 2007.
But should the 'oui' win he will still be ahead, well able
to overcome the suspicion that his 'liberal' European
stance wasn't meant to sink the referendum.

Jacques Chirac has been cooked before. He has risen from
the ashes and he is still around, and regardless of how the
vote goes on Sunday, he will still be president on Monday.
Speculation has it that Jean–Pierre Raffarin will
resign as prime minister, to be replaced by Dominique de
Villepin.

This tall man may not be so loved as little Nicolas, but
the French are having no trouble escaping the notion that
he may be equally ambitious. After having a 90 minute chat
with Chirac on Friday evening he may be well prepared to
hit the ground running on Monday.

Finally there's Cécilia, or more to the point,
where is Cécilia? If she's not Nicolas Sarkozy's
right–hand man, what's she up to? According to the
Swiss daily, Le Matin, this is 'one of the best–kept
secrets of the République,' one that Nicolas Sarkozy
isn't sharing with us.