Starting next year, students in Washington, 44 other states, and the District of Columbia will be held to new, tougher standards known as Common Core. That could cause some sticker shock once test scores start rolling in a year later.

A new analysis from the publisher Scholastic says Seattle schools should prepare for a 10- to 33 percent drop in student proficiency, and that as many as half of tested students could come in below standards. The estimates come from comparing scores from the current state tests with the National Assessment of Educational Progress, which is thought to employ a similar level of rigor to the coming Common Core tests

This widely predicted drop in test scores is a topic that Florida legislators have avoided. It’s not as if people aren’t trying to explain it to them. Lobbyist Jim Horne, a former state education commissioner, cautioned advocates to “don’t disappear into the bushes when the bullets start flying.”

The Seattle prediction may be a modest one. Illinois-Chicago professor Tim Shanahan predicts that PARCC assessments could generate a whopping 75 percent failure rate. Such sober predictions are why guys like Horne are trying to prepare Florida power brokers. His hyperbole reveals he’s aware of the reality that such results will have to fit into Florida’s multiple and complicated accountability systems.

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About Bob Sikes

A long time ago and a planet far, far away I was an athletic trainer for the New York Mets. I was blessed to be part of the now legendary 1986 World Series Championship. My late father told me that I'd one day be thankful I had that degree in teaching from Florida State University. He was right and I became twice blesses to become a teacher in the late 1990's. After dabbling with writing about the Mets and then politics, I settled on education.