Tuesday, 26 May 2015

Where does the solution lie (The Cyprus Weekly, 23 May 2015)

Esra Aygin

There is a widespread and very dangerous assumption, or
rather misconception, among the Greek Cypriot society that Turkey pulls all the
strings in the northern part of Cyprus and that, it single-handedly holds the
key to a solution in Cyprus. This simplistic approach does not only demonstrate
an inability to read the political and social dynamics prevalent in the Turkish
Cypriot community, but is also very dangerous as it leads to the view that, “Cypriots
in general have no power whatsoever vis-à-vis Turkey regarding a solution, so
why bother?” It leads to taking the easy way out. It leads to passivity. And,
we are at a time when passivity should be the last thing we resort to.

The resounding victory last month, of Mustafa Akıncı in the
elections for the Turkish Cypriot leader, should serve as a clear and undeniable
indicator that Ankara is unable to pull all the strings in Cyprus. I don’t
think anybody, even the most wildly creative, would put forward the argument
that Akıncı – who openly campaigned for a federal solution in Cyprus and
relations with Turkey based on equality - is an agent of Turkey! In fact, it
would be noteworthy to say that candidates in the northern part of Cyprus - be
it in-party elections, local, general or ‘presidential’ elections - who were
supported by Ankara in recent years, have all suffered losses.

After coming to power, the first step Akıncı took within the
framework of Confidence Building Measures, was to lift the ‘visa’ procedure at
the Turkish Cypriot crossing points – whereby everyone moving between the
northern and southern parts of the island were required to fill a form and get
issued with a stamped ‘visa.’

The Turkish Cypriot police at the crossing points now only
make a quick check on the computer by entering ID numbers – similar to the
Greek Cypriot procedure. The decision was made two weeks ago during Akıncı’s
first official visit to Ankara, which happened days after Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attacked Akıncı saying “his ears should hear what his
mouth is saying” in response to the new leader’s call for a “relationship
between brothers” with Turkey rather than one of a “motherland” and an
“infantland.”

Ankara, which, until only a couple of months ago, was
adamantly opposed to any change in the ‘visa’ procedure at the crossing points,
has been forced once again by dynamics in the Turkish Cypriot community, to adapt
its policies.

It is not the first time the dynamics in the Turkish Cypriot
society have forced such a change. In 2003, for example, Ankara, under
unprecedented pressure by the tens of thousands of Turkish Cypriots who took
the streets to protest the regime, had to give a green light to the opening of
crossing points, allowing Cypriots on both sides of the island to move freely
across the green line.

It is an undeniable fact that Turkey has a huge influence
over the northern part of Cyprus, and anybody who rejects this would be naïve,
to say the least. However, it is high time for Greek Cypriots to stop believing
that the Turkish Cypriots’ and the Turkish Cypriot leaders’ relationship with
Ankara is a one-way-only channel, where Turkey can impose its will and policies
easily without taking into consideration the dynamics within the society. And
the stance of the Turkish Cypriot leader is of vital importance, especially
with regard to the negotiations to find a federal solution to the Cyprus
problem. The leader of the Turkish Cypriot community, especially when he has
the support of a sweeping 60.50 percent of the voters - not only from the
leftist pro-solution camp but the broader section of society including the
Turkish settlers - is anything but powerless, and has a lot of leverage in
Ankara. And imagine the leverage if we were putting up a struggle for solution
jointly with our Greek Cypriot compatriots.

It goes without saying that a solution in Cyprus is not
possible without Turkey’s cooperation and consent. However, it is obvious that
Akıncı will not be the loyal follower of a policy fully determined by Turkey.
Yes, he will have to constantly discuss with Ankara the issues that arise
within the framework of negotiations. However, drawing on my experience working
with former Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat during the five years he
spent in office, I am confident in saying that this will most probably be a two-way
working relationship based neither on surrendering autonomy to Ankara nor
confronting it. Sides will undoubtedly differ on many issues and it will be up
to Akıncı and his chief negotiator Özdil Nami to convince Turkey of the benefit
or advantage of certain steps – just the same way as Mr. Talat, five years ago,
eventually convinced a rigidly opposed
Ankara to support the idea of cross-voting in a federal Cyprus.

Turkey cannot risk further alienating the Turkish Cypriot
community, which is growing more and more unhappy with Turkey. The Turkish
officials, without a doubt, realize that the more they try to intervene or
impose, the more

adverse reaction they will draw. They realize their
weakening influence over the Turkish Cypriots, including the settlers. And it
would be very difficult for Turkey to oppose an internationally-backed
agreement reached between Akıncı and Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades,
especially if both communities stand strong behind their leaders in the quest
for solution.

By electing Akıncı as their new leader, Turkish Cypriots
have, for the second time in a little more than a decade, challenged the
status-quo in the northern part of Cyprus and made anti-solution policies hit
the wall. The Greek Cypriot community remained distant to the struggle of the
Turkish Cypriots in the early 2000s. Will you hold our hand and join us in our
struggle for ending the division of the island this time? Because the key to solution
lies right here, in our hands.