Saturday, May 10, 2008

Why Florida Matters

Many people are asking. "Why isn't Hillary leaving the race?" Or, "Isn't the math prohibitive?" Well, the answer is given quite simply by Karl Rove. Now Karl may be a lot of things, but he is not stupid and he knows politics and elections. Unlike Hillary and her surrogates in the Democratic party, he does not have to say, "either candidate can win the general but Hillary is stronger." He can tell the unvarnished version which is that Hillary wins against McCain and Barack loses. So it's simple, a vote for Barack in the primary is tantamount to a vote for McCain in the general. (The chart to the right reflects Karl's analysis that Nebraska and North Dakota will end up in the Republican column.) It's very striking to me that the Democratic fortunes in November are completely reversed if we are foolish enough to nominate Barack. I'm sure this is why many superdelegates are sticking with Hillary or are still undecided. No one wants four or eight more years of a Republican in the White House.

I've posted his discussion by Fox News about this and about the Dems problem with Florida.

UPDATE: Please take a look at the analysis by Mr. X who writes that "His [Karl's] numbers match almost exactly what I have. There is almost ZERO way Obama can win and it's almost impossible for Hillary to lose in the GE." )

Over a dozen members of Congress from swing states had this to say in a letter they sent to their colleagues today:

Pennsylvania was not just a victory for Hillary Clinton. It was also a wake- up call for superdelegates, forcing us to ask ourselves two essential questions: