I’ll be as blunt as possible: the number of online “followers” (including Facebook friends, blog subscribers, and all the 19-year-olds on Friendster who genuinely want to meet old dorks like me) one has is not a measure of authority. It is not a measure of power. It is not a measure of intelligence. It is not a measure of capability. It is not a measure of quality. It is a measure of reach/audience, and if one wants to put a label on it, it’s called “popularity”.

In high school I ran for class president. I lost. The winner went to all the cool parties all year long, I went to few. The winner was on lots of teams and associations, I was on several. During our speeches, the winner talked about how great the school was and how much pride she had. I spoke about getting the class to volunteer with a local in-need youth group. In truth, little of this all mattered in the election, since I wasn’t a very popular kid in high school (yeah, that’s right, the guy who programmed C++ and ran an online BBS in the late 80’s wasn’t super popular, can you believe it? have no fear, I blossomed).

Here’s why I’ve been saying for the past year that it is far more important who you follow than who follows you: if you follow people just to get followers you’ll end up being overworked, deep in information overload, and superficial to boot. You won’t have a philosophy. It +will+ show. You might be able to fool most of the idiots most of the time, but eventually they’ll see the difference between the “collect follower” types and the “surround yourself with smart people” types like Tim O’Reilly or Jay Rosen.

Every major cable company will increase it’s rates by more than 3%. Nobody will complain, and our government will (again) fail to protect us from them. — Well, I don’t really have the time to review all the packages from all the service providers, but I know my rates went up. I’ll score this a Yes.

A resolution above 1080p starts appearing in demos and labs, I’d predict a bump up into the 4000 vertical lines space. — Yup.

Bluray and HD-DVD continue to duke it out while consumers continue to not care. — Well, HD failed, and Blu-ray is still in the doldrums. But, since my prediction was they’d be fighting through the year, I guess this is a No.

One of Hulu, Joost, etc get integrated into the Xbox 360 and/or PS3. — Netflix on Xbox for the Yes.

Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. — Nope, didn’t happen (though I still believe they are working on it).

Anyone who is not a telephone company that tries to launch an IP-streaming set top device has a very rough year. — Vudu, Sezmi, etc. Yes.

Despite near-constant predictions of their demise, TiVo makes it through another year, possibly getting acquired (by DirecTV, Comcast, Netflix, Blockbuster, or someone out of the blue like Amazon or eBay). — Yes.

Portable Devices That Are Not Cell Phones

Zune 3.0 launches. It’s very very good. Further, iPod’s market share dips, although they still have an increase in overall unit sales (in other words: the pie gets bigger faster than their sales do). That said, a new iPod is even more betterer than all previous versions, making everyone who recently bought a prior generation a wee bit annoyed, but gosh that Steve Jobs is so charming they just don’t care. After all, that’s technology! — No, pretty much completely wrong (though there is a rumor for a new Zune at CES 09)

At least two major camera vendors introduce integrated wifi cameras, but no more than one uses an open service, the rest have some proprietary, closed, annoying-to-use system. Ideally one of them buys Eye-fi. — Correctamundo (but still waiting on the Eye-Fi acquisition)

Digital picture frames continue to grow in market share, but still don’t “tip” into the mainstream. — Anecdotally I’d say I’m right (duh), but I can’t find any stats either way. That said, there were enough units sold to get some malignant pusbag to put a virus on one. I’ll leave this one unresolved for now.

More companies introduce e-book readers despite general malaise in the category. Kindle II is launched with mild improvements. — Wrong, wrong, wrong. Even if I don’t “get it”, apparently Oprah does, so it looks like the category’s doing fine. Probably one of the biggest surprises to me this year…

Enterprise Services

I have no clue, I don’t follow the space. Hello, this is a consumer tech blog! — This statement certainly wasn’t enough to prevent clueless PR flacks from pitching me on their enterprise technology products.

Computers

Apple’s new laptops will include an ultramobile, a tablet, and a “desktop replacement” OR a “gaming model” (they may combine the first two). Enhancements will include a card reader, 3G access as a built-in option, and new gestures. Market share continues to climb. — Other than the market share comment, I’m quite wrong again. I should’ve just said “one solid piece of aluminium” and left it at that.

Microsoft continues to spin about how amazing Vista is. Michael Gartenberg’s observations are probably the most poignant as to why it isn’t. — Right, and with a huge budget to boot.

Asus or Dell acquires or merges with one of HP, Acer, Toshiba, or other “meh” PC maker. — Wrong.

Sony continues to make subpar Vaio laptops. And for the last time (I think) in 2007: don’t buy the Sony Vaio VGN-SZ4xx series laptops, they are just plain terrible. I’ve now had the chance to voice my discontent directly to the Vaio PR team (at Ruder Finn) who have yet to write me back on the topic. — Completely right. If I’ve had the opportunity to cost them some sales, I feel like I’ve accomplished something. And a note to that PR team – how about dropping me a note one day? Since you pitch yourselfes as being good at this “social media” thing, maybe you’d like to show your prowess?

Nobody makes my awesome dual-screen laptop concept, thus leaving me the opportunity to make zillions one day. — I have the pleasure to say that I’m wrong, and Lenovo owes me zillions.

Social Networking

Facebook continues to get backlash from the media and tech community, meanwhile its user base continues to skyrocket. Further, they hire another 1000 people, yet only make modest improvements to the site itself. I’d add a 33% chance that they “pull a Netscape” and go after the desktop or the browser or some other place they really don’t belong. — Re backlash: right; Re growth: right; Re staffing: close; Re improvements: right; Re target a weird space: right (Beacon). Cmon, I get extra props here!

Randomly pick some names from the huge list of other social networking sites and some of them merge. — AOL bought Bebo, but that was about it for the year.

Adults who didn’t grow up with social networking services experience burnout of being bitten by zombies after a few months, and many stop checking in four times per day. Those who went to school during the Facebook era continue to complain about all the old fogies (like me) polluting their sacred resting ground. They also continue to put radically inappropriate pictures of themselves online, blissfully unaware of the interviewing process. — Right on all counts.

Mobile Tech

A few Android-powered phones ship, but not as many as the tech community would like to see. Again showing why the Razr can utterly dominate the market despite a closed architecture and terrible user interface. — I guess I should’ve said “One or more” instead of “a few”, but I’m gonna go with a yes here.

Apple launches the iPhone 3G, the iPhone nano, and the iPhonePro. Ok, I’m not 100% sure on the third, but I am betting on the first two. Also, one of these new phones comes unlocked OR on a carrier other than AT&T. — Mixed, so for the count I’ll have to say wrong.

Some major lawsuit occurs between a carrier and either a cable company or a broadcaster, all about mobile video rights. All parties involved appear as nothing but greedy to outsiders. — Wrong (it’s still brewing, trust me)

Something new comes out in the phone space that’s more astounding than the iPhone. It’s possibly: uber-small, has a radically better battery life, does something funky like synchs with the Wii, or works with all US carriers. — Wrong, instead a bunch of lousy, boring, poorly built touchphone replicas come to market. Fail.

Gaming

With lots of stealth, a new console comes to market. It might only be a moderate shift from a prior model, or possibly be a whole new entrant. — Nope.

Someone comes up with a really impressively new concept for the Wii. Good odds, however, that they wrap it inside a crappy game. — Don’t know, didn’t pay enough attention to the Wii. Anyone?

More really amazing HD gaming occurs, continuing to drive HD adoption faster than the meager channels the cable companies try to placate us with, despite the fact that they raise prices again. Did I already say that? — Yup.

Web Services/Misc

A wide swath of “Web 2.0″ companies will go dark, primarily out of an inability to either figure out a business model for their product, or an inability to successfully market their service outside of the Bay Area. They will quickly be forgotten and replaced by new ones with even goofier sounding names like Froobooloo.com. — I guess this has to be a “not quite yet”, but it’s-a-coming…

RFID continues to be a fun topic for the media, but all that happens is Walmart continues to make small vendors spend loads of money for the privelege of selling there. — Goes under the not enough information to make a call category.

Bloggers fret about not being recognized as “press”, yet continue to spend too much time/energy gossiping about other bloggers, an activity the general public remains disinterested in and doesn’t give extra respect/credibility for. This circular logic is baffling, I know. — Right.

We lose even more rights to big media, because few Americans are willing to take even the tiniest steps to do anything about it. PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG (start here)! — Right.

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I’ve been thinking about a bluetooth headset for a long time. Since I got my iPhone, I’ve almost exclusively used the included iPod headphones / speakerphone to talk with other people. But it tangles often and it’s starting to get worn out – the rubber on the earpieces has rubbed off completely. 🙁 That combined with the California headset law (and the joy of playing with new toys) convinced me to try to go blue. Eric Benderoff’s review of several top bluetooth headsets gave me a little background, and the pure sex appeal of the Jawbone II gave me a starting place.

There are a lot of different possible categories from which to assess a gadget like this: form factor, simplicity of use, pairing ability, sound quality, battery life, durability, cost… I don’t often write really analytical reviews which numerically asses and assign rankings to devices, but this time I plan to for the sake time and conveneience. Elsewise this review will ramble, extensively. Long.

I will rank each of the above categories with a numeric ranking between 1 and 10 (naturally) and then average out the scores. By doing this I am essentially saying 1.) that each of the chosen categories have equal weighting, and 2.) that other possible categories (say, color) do not factor into my assessment. Those are both true things, so take my review with the appropriate grains of sodium hydrochloride.

Pairing Ability: 7 (turn it on, and turn on bluetooth on your phone – they just seem to find each other)

Sound Quality: 6 (I can hear people OK. When I need to turn the volume up high, it seems to get a little fuzzy. People can hear me OK. Not great, but OK. This might be due to poor pairing, or simply the nature of the device. )

Battery Life: 6 (battery life seems to be about what you’d expect, or just a hair better. I seem to get about 2-3 hours of active talk time. If it sits idle on a full charge for a couple days, I can still use it. If it sits idle after a full charge for 5 or 6 days, not so good. )

Durability: 4 (the device body seems to be fairly compact and well made, I expect it will last as well as anything else out there. The ear pieces are another issue. As you’ll see in the pictures below, one of my stems broke. Jawbone is kind enough to package multiple stems [for differently sized and shaped heads / ears] so I had a backup, even though it’s a suboptimal size. I did NOT mishandle nor manhandle the ear piece – just rotated it as it’s designed to be rotated, and the little sucker just snapped. Boy was I irritated. )

Cost: 4 (this is a pricey little sucker. I’ve seen it at the T-Mobile store for as little as $99, and at a Verizon store for $129. If you shop around you’ll find it for somewhere over $100.

If we assume that each of the above categories carrie an equal weighting, then the score on the Jawbone II bluetooth headset comes out to 6.29 (10+7+7+6+6+4+4=6.2857147)

I like this device’s style and simplicity. It’s elegant, pretty, fairly easy to use, and the it sounds good. Not “oh my god holy crap” amazing, but it sounds good. The cost of the unit, and the fact that the stem broke in the manner it did are both very offputting for me though, and they are the biggest limiting factors in my estimation. That particular pair of issues (high cost with questionable durability) is expecially disagreeable. I’ll be interested to see if/how the company responds to my customer service request. If they do, I will update this post.

Forced to give a numeric rating between 1 and 10, this device averaged out to a 6.29.

After a series of interesting tweets, comments, discussions, and drunken ramblings with a variety of Internetters, I really came to notice how different the perspectives are from those attending CES. Aaron Brazell of Technosailor asked me to write a post on his blog to try to represent both sides of Pitching and Being Pitched at CES. Here’s the opener, and you can read the rest at Technosailor:

2009 is rapidly approaching, and as a 10 year veteran of CES I’ve seen it from many different angles. I’ve been there as a tiny underfunded startup using a hotel room to do all demos and I’ve taken center stage in a multi-million dollar booth. I’ve attended as press and I’ve pitched the press. From virtually every perspective, CES is an exhilarating and exhausting process. I love it. With the massive surge in blogger registrations at this year’s show, I’ve also noticed more than usual complaints about the pitching process, so as someone who sits on both sides of the fence, I thought I’d share some observations and suggestions.

…

Thanks, Aaron, for raising the discussion and inviting me to participate in your digital turf!

To celebrate we’re having a holiday contest and giving away two TextExpander licenses!

Contest the First:

TextExpander has one of the cheekiest registration screens around; it offers up data on how many times you’ve triggered an abbreviation, how many characters have been replaced, and how much time you’ve saved typing. The first license will go to the reader who guesses the number of characters (as of the time of posting) that TextExpander has spared me from typing. The Price is Right rules apply: closest guess (without going over) wins.

Contest the Second:

This started off because I came up with a new snippet; now it’s your turn. The second license will go to the reader who suggest the best idea for a new snippet, as judged by the LiveDigitally team. Extra points for contest entries with working code snippets. (You can download the trial version to get started.)

Submit your guesses and ideas in the comments (you can link to a blog post if your idea is too long to fit.) The contest deadline is midnight on Wednesday, December 31st, and we’ll announce the winners in the new year. Good Luck!

Start by thinking of a thin-screened laptop like the (now former) Sony Vaio SZ series. Imagine on the side (left or right – you pick) a hinge, and on the other side a clasp. You release the clasp, then a second screen swivels out (via hinge) to appear next to your original screen. Attentive readers will realize at this moment that the screen is facing away from the user, which means the hinge needs a swivel as well (just like on a tablet PC). That’s the basics, but read on for it to all make a bit more sense. Also, I’m not stating that this configuration is for everyone, but, like a mini-notebook, it should appeal to… some?

December 18, 2008. I read on Engadget and the Technologizer that Lenovo is planning a dual-screen laptop. The main concept:

it looks like the dual-screen W700 is for real. Reportedly, the machine will feature a 17-inch WUXGA (1,920 x 1,200) primary display along with a 10.6-inch WXGA (1,280 x 768) secondary panel. Think SideShow, just jacked up on whatever Clemens and McGwire were using. The rest of the specifications are swell but expected, but the tidbits we’re really reaching for (price and availability, naturally) are nowhere to be found. Can you say “want.”?

I don’t suppose they’ll be sending me a royalty check any time soon, eh?

They’ve re-designed their website – cool new look and feel, with a strong focus on video consumption

They’ve concluded their invite-only Alpha phase and opened up in a public Beta where anyone can register and use the site

They’ve had their iPhone application approved and launched in the iTunes App Store (for $0.99)

I’m happy for their progress from Alpha to Beta, and I think the re-design looks great. But I’m most excited about the iPhone app. You all know (both of you) 😉 that I’m an iPhone user, and one of my few frustrations with the device has always been the lack of a video recorder. Apple steadfastly refuses to release one, and there’s no third-party video recording application available (unless you choose to jailbreak your phone). This annoys me.

12seconds did not manage to sneak a video recorder through Apple’s QA team. But they did create about the best possible workaround. App users will take 3 photos (or choose 3 from their picture library), record twelve seconds of audio, and then post their creation to their 12seconds account (unregistered folks can create an account on the fly, in their phone.) Somewhere in the cloud, the pics and audio are combined and then spit out as a twelve second video slideshow. Users can email a link to their video directly from their phone Each video has it’s own unique URL on 12seconds.tv, and can be emailed, embedded (as HTML) or downloaded onto your hard drive. Here’s a demo video on how to use the app.

One thing I really like about this app is the story telling aspect. The series of pictures with audio narration really give you that James Earl Jones feeling of comfort. Also, if you flub the audio and need to re-record, you can do so as many times as you like. With traditional video, if you blow it, it’s blown. The moment has passed. Here’s one video I recorded with a trial version of the app.

The app is a first draft. It works, and it’s intuitive, but there are some features I’d like to see added, including wanting better flexibility in choosing photos and saving drafts. But on the whole I think the app is very usable. There’s just room to improve.

Kudos to the 12seconds team on a great launch and a cool app. This is the best solution to the video-recording conundrum that Apple’s created that I’ve seen yet.

At Current Analysis I head up a group focusing on mobile devices and how competitive they are in the market. As always, while vendors do send me review units, I do not profit from them (they are typically returned at the vendor’s expense), no money was paid for inclusion on the list, no Senate seats were offered as bribes, I don’t own stock in any of these companies, and Current Analysis clients did not receive any special treatment. Given the state of the economy, I’ve reigned in prices this year; suggestions start at $8.99 and nothing exceeds $200.

Accessories

In past years, I have recommended buying aftermarket headphones as a way to really improve your mobile music experience. This is still a great way to go, and I’m a big fan of almost anything from etymotic or Shure; this year I tested out Ultimate Ear’s Triple.fi 10’s ($400, but they sound great). However, if you’re on a budget this holiday season, there are two ways to improve the headphones you probably already have. The cheap earbuds that come with most MP3 players aren’t awful – Apple’s are pretty good for pack-ins – they just don’t physically stay in many people’s ears. Two companies have stepped up to solve this problem without breaking the bank:

Acoustibuds, $12.99, look a bit strange and wrap around the end of the earbud and turn it into an in-ear speaker. The company claims that this will ensure that they don’t fall out (true) and improve the sound (not so much). Acoustibuds will work on any earbud, so if you’ve got a Sansa rather than an iPod, you’re still covered.

BudFits from Innovelis, $8.99 (an amazon exclusive for now) is the simplest solution you could possibly imagine: a silicone clef that attaches to the base of the earbud (Apple only, unfortunately) and wraps around your ear. They’re comfortable, inexpensive, and they work. Apple really ought to include these from the outset.

I’m on the road a lot, and when you’re in a hotel room you have one of two choices: bring speakers and get some work done, or turn on the TV and end up watching reruns of Entourage on HBO until 2 AM. I’ve tested a bunch of portable speaker systems, but most of them are either too bulky to pack ‘just in case’ or just plain sound awful. Nokia’s MD-4 strikes the perfect balance – tiny V-shaped speakers that run on AA batteries and can fill a hotel room with decent sound (face them towards the wall to improve the sound quality further). What’s more, they’ve been on the market a while, so they’re a bargain: Amazon has them marked down from $99 to $35.

One of my big complaints with the iPhone 3G is that it doesn’t have enough battery life for all the things I want to do with it. There are several aftermarket battery pack add-ons, but the one you want to give as a gift is the mophie juicepack. Oh, sure, at $99 it is expensive – other battery add-ons are half that – but the juicepack is the only one that looks and feels like something Apple might have designed themselves. The juicepack greatly extends the iPhone’s battery life (I didn’t do run-down tests, but I’d guess it triples the available power) as it cradles your iPhone like an iPhone case, so you can continue using the device.

With mandatory headset rules in more states, sales of Bluetooth headsets are rising. There’s an alternative designed just for the car – Blueooth speakerphones that slip onto your sun visor. I’ve tested a bunch of these. My favorite is Motorola’s T505, which not only has a speakerphone built in, but also an FM transmitter. If your phone has stereo Bluetooth (most musicphones and pretty much any smartphone other than the iPhone), you can transmit your music from the phone to the T505 to an empty station on your radio. When a call comes in, it switches to speakerphone, and then resumes the music when the call is over. Like all FM transmitters, it works better the farther away you are from crowded radio markets like New York, but the T505 will scan the airwaves for you, find an open frequency, and then tell you what number to tune your radio to. I tested a prototype earlier this year on an endless drive from New Jersey down to the Virginia-Kentucky border and was impressed. This is another product on a great sale at amazon, $65 (down from $139).

One of the problems with modern TV/home theater setups is that they are far too complicated: you really don’t want to spend a half hour with your babysitter explaining how to watch a movie. Logitech’s line of Harmony remote controls solves this problem. You set it up by answering questions online, and then it presents you with a list of Activities (“Watch TV,” “Play Wii,” etc.). It still isn’t perfect – the web-based setup interface still isn’t quite as idiot-proof as it ought to be – but the remotes themselves have gotten a lot better. The least expensive model (Harmony 510, currently just $49 at amazon) will get you the most bang for your buck.

If you have more to spend, I would skip the next step-up models and jump to the Harmony One ($179 at amazon). The One isn’t all that much different from Logitech’s other Harmony remotes in terms of specifications; the touchscreen is nicer and it can handle more devices, but that’s about it. What makes the Harmony One stand out is the attention paid to ergonomics – every button is shaped differently (so you can feel it without looking) and is placed just where your finger expects it to be. This is not something easy to describe, but pick one up and you’ll see. When I first laid hands on the Harmony One at a Logitech event, they offered to send me a review sample, but I pulled out my credit card instead (review samples have to go back, and this one was mine).

Budget iPod Alternatives

Apple continues to innovate in the iPhone and iPod touch lines, turning them into handheld computing platforms this year, but the regular iPod line got less dramatic improvements. The most popular model in the line, the iPod nano, costs $150 for an 8 GB model. The nano is still the most stylish MP3 player (it’s even prettier in your hand than in photos), it still syncs with Apple’s excellent iTunes software, and it still connects to the largest number of accessories. In short, if you can afford one, it’s worth the money. But what if you’re cheap?

SanDisk’s Sansa Fuze looks like SanDisk was trying to copy last year’s iPod squarish nano design, and it barely has any accessories to speak of. However, the Fuze is $50 less expensive than the nano, and the user interface on the Fuze is quite nice.

At lower price points, SanDisk’s Sansa Clip competes with Apple’s iPod shuffle; again, the Clip isn’t as stylish, but it’s still pretty darn small, it costs less than the shuffle (starting at just $35), and it includes a handy screen, which the iPod shuffle lacks, so you can see and choose what you are listening to.

Another iPod alternative I’m enjoying is the Slacker G2. This is tied to Slacker’s “personal radio” service, which is a cross between satellite radio, Rhapsody, and TiVo: first, you choose from various themed stations, and you can create your own by starting with an artist (say, the Delbert McClinton channel). Then you customize the stations over time by selecting “heart” or “ban” when you hear songs you’d like repeated or never wish to hear again. You can listen free (online on the web or on the player) with a few restrictions (there are a few commercials and you are limited to six “skip song” requests per hour) or pay $7.50 per month (which eliminates commercials, allows unlimited song skipping, and stores specific songs for on-demand playback). The G2 pushes the upper limit of this year’s list: $199 for a 4GB player, and that’s without the premium service – but even the free service is quite appealing.

Semi-Convergence Devices

Not everyone wants an iPhone or BlackBerry. There, I’ve said it. It also happens to be true – there are people out there who are not technophobes, yet they do not want multifunction devices. These people love their phones, but do not want to use them phones to surf the web or add applications or tie into corporate email systems. If one of these strange creatures is on your gift list, I have two recommendations:

If they don’t want a smartphone but do want to access personal email wherever they go, the Peek might be perfect. It’s a dedicated personal email device – that’s all it does. It looks like a ten year old BlackBerry that went through a deli slicer (it’s boxy but extremely thin), and it is straightforward to use – my mother would have no problem getting up to speed, and she is a bit of a technophobe. Peek is sold at Target stores for $79, and there is no contract, but there is a catch: monthly service is expensive ($20/month).

OK, I cheated: this one is a convergence device, combining a basic mobile phone with an extremely sophisticated camera (and WiFi plus a basic MP3 player, but let’s ignore that for now). Still, I think Motorola’s ZINE ZN5 will appeal primarily to the type of person who doesn’t want a smartphone, just a phone …but if you could combine a basic phone with a really good digital camera, that would be nice, too. The ZN5 is dead simple to use: to launch the camera, you slide down the lens cap. Then, most of the button labels disappear, leaving only camera-specific controls. Close the lens cap, and it’s a phone again. Now, the ZN5’s camera is still not as good as an inexpensive Canon digital camera with a glass lens, larger image sensor, and optical zoom. However, the ZN5 is always with you, and it takes pictures that easily cross the “good enough to print” threshold. Motorola co-branded the ZN5 with Kodak. It has a Xenon flash (like a regular digital camera), autofocus, and plenty of resolution should you want to make prints (5 megapixels). Most importantly, shutter lag is minimal, and shot-to-shot times are good. In fact, the ZN5’s imaging is every bit as good as the best high end convergence devices from Nokia and Samsung, but without the complexity and for only $99 with a 2 year contract at T-Mobile.

Services

Many of the items on any gadget list are likely to be purchased at amazon.com, and the amazon prime program ($79/year) is a gift that will keep giving impatient technology buyers all year long. With amazon prime, 2 day shipping is free for any item sold by amazon itself (as opposed to other merchants listing wares on amazon) and overnight shipping is just $3.99. This makes overnight shipping affordable for heavy items or just-in-time gadget purchases. I should note, however, that my wife uses amazon prime for something considerably less technical: just-in-time diapers to the door without having to drag them home from the store.

I have been recommending that Microsoft build file synchronization into Windows for several years now – it would make it a lot easier to have more than one Windows device if your data was automatically replicated across every machine you had – desktop, notebook, netbook, whatever. Well, they’ve done it. No, not Microsoft, but a small start-up, SugarSync, has designed a service to do three things: back up your data to the web, give you access to your data from any web browser, and replicate that data to any machine. There are a lot of services that do online backup and access, so where SugarSync is special is data replication. For example, you can start a Word document on your desktop, then run out to a meeting with your notebook. As long as both machines have Internet access, your half-finished document will be automatically saved on both machines and available for you to finish on the notebook. Plus, your files are always backed up somewhere, and you can access them from PC’s, Macs, and some smartphones. Sugarsync costs $25 a year for 10GB of storage.

In the past I’ve recommended gift subscriptions to Netflix, and that’s certainly one I’m happy to list again this year. I haven’t found too many movies on my list that are available for instant download, but hopefully that will change over the next year. In the meantime, Netflix is still the most convenient way to get movies on DVD or Blu-ray.

Another holdover from last year – and a perfect complement to Netflix movies – is gourmet popcorn. Dale and Thomas Popcorn offers various ridiculously delicious treats including all sorts of chocolate & popcorn combinations sure to cushion even the largest stock market drops (and expand your waistline in the process). Everything is kosher, making it a good Chanukah gift, too.

Last year I looked at the first Asus Eee PC, and it’s not surprising that netbooks are even hotter a year later. However, I have a nagging feeling that a lot of the netbooks being bought today are DrawerWare – in a year’s time, they’ll be in a drawer. The least expensive units are getting the most attention, and I find the small screens, Linux OS, 3 cell battery, and compressed keyboards to be overly limiting, even for taking notes, webmail, and Internet surfing. Once you equip a netbook with a large screen/Windows/memory you’re really edging into cheap notebook territory. There is one area where netbooks make a lot of sense: the top end of the netbook pricing ladder is really interesting for road warriors. HP’s Mini 1000 (in the upcoming 6 cell/WWAN modem version) gives people who prize mobility pretty much everything they’d get in a $1500 – $2500 subnotebook from Fujitsu or Sony for a tiny fraction of the price. (The MacBook Air, which I’m also testing, is a bit of a different animal; it’s pricey and lacks ports, but it’s crazy thin and runs OS X.)

In last year’s Guide I noted that I wanted to recommend the SmartShopper shopping list gadget, but couldn’t. I still can’t wholeheartedly recommend it, but I must note that the company didn’t ask for it back, and a year later we’re still using it daily. When it ran out of thermal paper rolls, we opted to buy more rather than go back to pen and paper. It is still somewhat buggy, it eats batteries alive, and nobody actually needs one. Then again, it has come way down in price ($55 on amazon, down from $129 last year) and we do like it.

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While I’ve always liked Netflix, I’ve remained dubious as to their potential for long term success. Even when they hit their first million subscribers I thought little of it. From my perspective, with tens of millions of customers, I figured sooner or later Blockbuster would just wipe out Netflix’s market share and opportunity. Instead, Netflix is en route to 9 million subscribers, and I’m more than a little surprised. A conversation last night with a good friend of mine helped me understand why this is happening. It’s a few parts Innovator’s Dilemma, and a few parts just plain bad business. It’s a Cinderella story. Outta nowhere.

In looking back on Blockbuster, their major rise to success happened during the VCR boom. New movies were priced prohibitively for purchase ($80+ for a movie was not uncommon), so rentals dominated. Blockbuster utterly mastered the art of creating a retail facility to rent video tapes. In doing so, I believe they set the groundwork for their failure to convert to a successful Internet business.

First, it’s important to look at Blockbuster for what it truly is: an excellent Retail Business, whose product is Renting Movies. Initially the format was VHS tapes, then as the shift to DVD occurred, the company adjusted. If the next step was Blu-Ray (which it isn’t), and the primary market was consumers needing to rent content, Blockbuster would, hypothetically, be poised for a rosy future. But that’s clearly not the case.

The DVD market saw a major change in pricing strategy for the content industry, with movies averaging $19.99-$24.99, and often much less. This meant the movie rental business saw its first shift to the movie sales business.

Next up, due to the form factor, sending DVDs in the mail was a viable option, enabling Netflix to exist. While Blockbuster has “toyed around” in the area of mailing DVDs, it’s a fundamentally different business than the Retail operations the company mastered. In fact, when considering Netflix it’s very important to recognize their core strategy of distributing content based around personal recommendations. Netflix is actually an excellent Movie Distribution Business, whose product was primarily Mailing DVDs.

As we look at the present, the world of Retail Businesses have seen enormous change, mostly due to e-commerce. Additionally, the world of Movie Distribution Businesses have faced not just format changes, but also the massive decay of physical media formats. Which is why Blockbuster has responded so poorly, and is so poorly poised for the future. In a nutshell, Blockbuster isn’t about movies, it’s about retail movies, a world whose time has come. Whereas Netflix isn’t about retails or formats, it’s about movies, and as the variables in that world change, Netflix can more easily change with them.

So even as we see Blockbuster dabble in the digital distribution world, the company needs a fundamental sea change in order to survive. Interestingly, I don’t think there is anything that would prevent Blockbuster from digital success. Per the NY Times article, there are plenty of other collaborative filtering tools to give them a great recommendations system. They already have all the relationships and licenses in place in order to be able to offer literally identical services to Netflix. They also have an incredibly strong brand to leverage, not to mention a massive customer database and distribution facility.

All they need to do is choose to operate a Movie Distribution Business, instead of running a Retail Business. I think the simplest solution for the company is to create a spinoff entity, one not hampered by the P&L necessities of the retail organization. This new entity should be run like a startup, be well funded, and given a couple of years to succeed. They should have full access to the marketing vehicle that is Blockbuster, but none of the constraints or burdens of that organization.

Until then, I’ll enjoy getting my Netflix movies by mail. I’ll watch it streaming on my Macbook, Xbox 360, or boxee setups. If there’s a new release I can’t find within this setup, I’ll buy it through iTunes or through my HDTV cable box on demand system (something Comcast does extremely well, btw). In the digital age, there can be many more than only one, but only time will tell if Blockbuster will be one of them.

I can’t browse the Web (well, technically it can, but it’s quite janky).

For crying out loud, I can’t even view or edit an Excel spreadsheet on it!

I have, sigh, a dumbphone. And I love it. I don’t have my office in my pocket. I don’t get interrupted during dinner with some email that didn’t need to get to me until the next day. I can taxi from the runway to my gate without developing callouses on my thumbs. I don’t have to worry about cutting and pasting anything. Are there times where I wish I had an iPhone or other boxy-but-good smartphone? Sure.

It turns out there’s an amazing amount of things I can do with my phone without needing a lot more “smarts” in it. Here’s a list of services I use to augment my phone’s experience. The common theme, as you’ll quickly notice, is it’s all about SMS.

Check a flight status: text to GOOGL (46645) the word “flight” followed by airline and flight number (e.g. “flight AC 759” or “flight UA 09”), you’ll get today’s flight time

Get a restaurant/business phone number: again, GOOGL and the name of the place (add the zip code for more accuracy). this one isn’t perfect, but it’s pretty impressive

Research a question: try out chacha by texting your question to 242242, you’ll get a (typically) useful answer. this is one of my favorite “tricks”, especially if I’m near a screen-pinching iPhone addict trying to find out the same information, but with oh so much more effort

Get a sports score: yup, GOOGL, the word “score” and your team (e.g. “score Canadiens”).

Lifecast: if you must, you must. twitter, flickr, 12seconds, and other services all accept SMS and MMS messages.

Financial services: there are lots of new options that let you get financial updates via text, including mint.com and others

Here’s my “killer missing app” for a useful SMS service: LinkedIn/Plaxo lookups. I have all my contacts organized – why can’t I just send in a text and get someone’s phone number or address without much effort? Seems like a nobrainer.

So no, I won’t be shelling out a fistful of cash for any of this year’s crop of smartphones. As I’ve said many times, all that “convenience” isn’t much of a benefit in context people becoming less detached from their real world experiences while being overly connected to their worklife. If your name doesn’t rhyme with Harack Okama, odds are pretty good you aren’t getting recurring emails Saturday at 9pm while you’re at dinner that you *have* to check. If you are, you need a better job.

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Note: this is a guest-written review from Gitamba Saila-Ngita, I felt I didn’t spend enough time using MP3 players myself (not to mention any athletic activities whatsoever) to do an adequate review of the product.

These days the iPod™ is ubiquitous, even to the extent that the term “iPod” has become synonymous with MP3 Player but, it might not be the only game in town! There are other options–especially when you want to take your music to… the extreme!

I recently had the opportunity to check out Freestyle Audio’s SoundWave. Their slogan, “Take Your Music There”, which is coupled with lifestyle images of the outdoors, and instantly got me wondering whether this little 2″x3″ device could withstand the wear and tear of mother nature. The SoundWave comes with everything you need to get started right out of the box; such as waterproof headphones, a replacement belt clip, USB™ transfer cable, arm band, and my personal favorite, 50 free music downloads from the eMusic service (Apple please take note).

The device also comes with a slew of pre-installed tunes which allows you to take it for a spin as soon as you’re ready. It can hold 2GB of music via internal storage (no SD slots to expand it), and packs a substantial 18 hour playback time.

Getting started was fairly quick and rather painless. After I set up my eMusic account, I uploaded some music onto the device before taking it out for a swim. One major difference between SoundWave and the iPod is that the SoundWave has no official software interface to your computer. This may not be a “make or break” deal for all MP3 Player users, but whether it be iTunes or Windows Media Player, it is definitely a convenience to have something that plays well with not only your music but your gadgets too.

Now before I go further, I’m always rather skeptical of any waterproofed electronic, ESPECIALLY something like an MP3 player. Usually the “waterproofing” is inadequate, or you sacrifice size to put your device into something as massive as an Otterbox. In some cases you could be like our friend David Spieser who had his iPod™ Shuffle “Waterproofed” for a pretty penny.

Once in the water, things got kind of dicey. The SoundWave features six buttons, each with multiple functions that are displayed on simple and very tiny digital screen. I found the buttons very difficult to press. This may be partly due to the waterproofing, but it definitely made skipping through songs mid-swim a challenge. There is also a 5 second fade out when you skip, so trying to get to that next song to pump up your work out gets really annoying very quickly. I recommend setting up a play list, or enabling the shuffle function to make your work out as fluid as possible (On a side note, for some reason even with correct IDV3 tag encoding all my songs, no matter where I put them, displayed as gibberish – I am still trying to figure out why that happened). I swam for about an hour and also submerged the device up to its maximum depth of 10 feet.

To my surprise, the device showed absolutely no signs of taking on water. The waterproof earphones held up great too, although I wish they were slightly more comfortable (it uses a standard headphone jack so I imagine you could find something waterproof that suits you). The sound quality both under water and above is not bad. The little guy also supports the WOW audio codec and multiple types of EQ to help tailor the experience to your liking.

All around, the Free Style Audio’s SoundWave can take the beating you dish out while getting your sweat(or swim!) on. I recommend this to people who’ve been looking to bring a tough and rugged portable music player with them on active outings, where you won’t need to worry if it can take on a variety of physical and active elements.

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About

Jeremy Toeman is VP Products for CNET. He has over 15 years experience in the convergence of digital media, mobile entertainment, social entertainment, smart TV and consumer technology. Prior ventures and projects include Viggle, Dijit Media, Sling Media, VUDU, Clicker, DivX, Rovi, Mediabolic, Boxee, and many other consumer technology companies. This blog represents nothing but his personal opinion and outlook on things.