Energy Market Analysis - 22-06-2017

Movement along the gas curve varied on Wednesday, with tight supply and a falling oil market continuing to dictate prices. The UK gas system was short as storage injection demand remained high, while an on-going outage in Norway restricted imports. Meanwhile, strong losses on the oil market contributed to bearish sentiment on the far-curve.

Temperatures are slightly cooler today which has resulted in lower demand for gas-fired power generation, helping the prompt shed from its price. However, the system is 33mcm short this morning and has limited losses at the front of the gas curve. The trend further along the curve is unchanged as weakening oil continues to weigh on contracts.

Market Open

Market Open

Power contracts mirrored movement on the gas curve yesterday, with gains displayed at the front of the curve and losses further out. Tight gas supply offered support to prompt prices but the upward movement was restricted by a healthier wind generation outlook. Downward movement on coal and oil markets weighed on the far-curve, despite a weakening Pound.

Temperatures are lower this morning and this has reduced demand for cooling, helping towards losses on the near power curve. Wind generation is also expected to ramp up over the weekend, providing additional downward pressure, although increased cloud cover has limited solar power. Further out, prices have been pressured down by falling coal and oil.

Brent 1st-nearby prices fell to a 7-month low yesterday and remain below $45/b this morning with considerations over further OPEC cuts having zero impact, as the effects of global oversupply are too strong.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 41.49ppt and £42.59/MWh, respectively.

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